UBC Theses and Dissertations

UBC Theses Logo

UBC Theses and Dissertations

A systems model of rural-urban migration in Nigeria 1974

You don't seem to have a PDF reader installed, try download the pdf

Item Metadata

Download

Media
UBC_1974_A6_7 O35.pdf [ 5.22MB ]
UBC_1974_A6_7 O35.pdf
Metadata
JSON: 1.0093137.json
JSON-LD: 1.0093137+ld.json
RDF/XML (Pretty): 1.0093137.xml
RDF/JSON: 1.0093137+rdf.json
Turtle: 1.0093137+rdf-turtle.txt
N-Triples: 1.0093137+rdf-ntriples.txt
Citation
1.0093137.ris

Full Text

A SYSTEMS MODEL OF RURAL-URBAN MIGRATION IN NIGERIA by CHIJIOKE LAWRENCE ODIMUKO B . S c , U n i v e r s i t y o f N i g e r i a , • 1966 A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF SCIENCE i n t h e School o f Community and R e g i o n a l P l a n n i n g We a c c e p t t h i s t h e s i s as c o n f o r m i n g t o t h e r e q u i r e d s t a n d a r d THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA May, 1974 i In presenting t h i s t h e s i s i n p a r t i a l f u l f i l m e n t of the requirements f o r an advanced degree at the U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h Columbia, I agree that the L i b r a r y s h a l l make i t f r e e l y a v a i l a b l e f o r reference and study. I f u r t h e r agree that permission f o r extensive copying of t h i s t h e s i s f o r s c h o l a r l y purposes may be granted by the Head of my Department or by h i s r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s . I t i s understood that copying or p u b l i c a t i o n of t h i s t h e s i s f o r f i n a n c i a l gain s h a l l not be allowed without my w r i t t e n permission. S c h o o k o f >• • Community & R e g i o n a l P l a n n i n g The U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h Columbia Vancouver 8, Canada i i \ ABSTRACT \ \ ': I > \ R u r a l - u r b a n m i g r a t i o n i n N i g e r i a i s t h e c a u s e o f a number o f p r o b l e m s ; t h e problems o f o v e r c r o w d i n g and d e t e r i o r a t i o n o f t h e urban e n v i r o n m e n t a s s o c i a t e d w i t h r a p i d urban g r o w t h ; t h e economic l o s s r e s u l t i n g from t h e h i g h unemployment r a t e s i n urban a r e a s ; and t h e pro b l e m o f a d v e r s e i m p l i c a t i o n s o f p r o l o n g e d p e r i o d s o f f r u s t r a t i o n among t h e urban, poor. N i g e r i a n governments . r e c o g n i z e t h a t r u r a l - u r b a n m i g r a t i o n c a l l s f o r more e f f e c t i v e p o l i c i e s t h a n t h o s e a t t e m p t e d i n t h e p a s t . j In t h i s c o n t e x t new • ap p r o a c h e s d e s i g n e d t o f o s t e r g r e a t e r u n d e r s t a n d i n g o f t h e n a t u r e o f t h i s p r o c e s s and more e f f e c t i v e p o l i c i e s s h o u l d be h e l p f u l . T h i s t h e s i s p r o c e e d s on t h e p r e m i s e t h a t r u r a l - u r b a n m i g r a t i o n i s i n r e a l i t y a p r o c e s s w i t h i n a complex s o c i o - e c o n o m i c s y s t e m c o n s i s t i n g o f many i n t e r a c t i n g components and s i g n i f i c a n t f e e d - b a c k e f f e c t s . I t i s t h u s h e l d t h a t a G e n e r a l Systems Approach p r o v i d e s an a p p r o p r i a t e and u s e f u l a n a l y t i c a l framework f o r t h e s t u d y o f t h i s p r o c e s s . In a d d i t i o n t o b r i n g i n g a b r o a d e r . p e r s p e c t i v e t o t h e a n a l y s i s , a systems framework i s a p o w e r f u l t o o l f o r e x p l o r a t o r y r e s e a r c h and t h e r e f o r e w e l l s u i t e d b o t h t o t h e p r o m o t i o n o f a g r e a t e r u n d e r s t a n d i n g o f t h e p r o c e s s and f o r t h e g e n e r a t i o n o f . a number o f i n i t i a l p o l i c y c o n s i d e r a t i o n s . 'I R e l y i n g on m a t e r i a l from e x i s t i n g l i t e r a t u r e and p e r s o n a l e x p e r i e n c e r e l a t e d t o t h e p r o c e s s i n s o u t h - e a s t e r n N i g e r i a , a model o f r u r a l - u r b a n . m i g r a t i o n i s d e v e l o p e d i n C h a p t e r 4 ( F i g u r e s 4.1 and 4 . 2 ) , and a p p l i e d i n C h a p t e r 5 t o d e r i v e a s e r i e s o f t e s t a b l e h y p o t h e s e s r e l a t e d t o t h e m i g r a - t i o n p r o c e s s . The methodology i s d e m o n s t r a t i v e o f a s y s t e m a t i c p r o c e d u r e f o r g e n e r a t i n g a s e r i e s o f i n t e r r e l a t e d p o t e n t i a l p o l i c i e s f o r s h a p i n g t h e p r o c e s s . i i i The main t h r u s t o f t h e work i s t o d e v e l o p a c o n c e p t u a l systems model o f t h e r u r a l - u r b a n m i g r a t i o n p r o c e s s and t h u s t o l a y a f o u n d a t i o n f o r f u r t h e r , s u b s t a n t i v e r e s e a r c h on r u r a l - u r b a n m i g r a t i o n i n N i g e r i a . In t h e c o n c l u d i n g c h a p t e r , some d i r e c t i o n s f o r t h i s f u t u r e r e s e a r c h have been s k e t c h e d . 1 TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT . . . . LIST OF FIGURES LIST OF TABLES . ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS CHAPTER 1: THE PROBLEM, OBJECTIVE, AND METHODOLOGY . . . . . . . . . 1 1.1 A St a t e m e n t o f t h e P r o b l e m 1 1 ! 1.2 O b j e c t i v e o f Study . . . . . . . . 3 1.3 Methodology . 3 1.3.1 F u n c t i o n o f t h e Systems Model . 3 1.3.2 D e f i n i t i o n o f t h e System 4 1.3.3 A p p l i c a t i o n o f t h e Systems Model 5 CHAPTER 2: REVIEW OF LITERATURE AND THE NIGERIAN EXPERIENCE . . . . 7 2.1 Review o f t h e L i t e r a t u r e on M i g r a t i o n 7 2.1.1 C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f M i g r a n t s 7 2.1.2 The P r o c e s s e s o f R u r a l - U r b a n M i g r a t i o n 10 2.1.3 Causes o f R u r a l - U r b a n M i g r a t i o n 16 2.1.4 A t t e m p t s a t M o d e l l i n g RUM 18 2.2 The N i g e r i a n E x p e r i e n c e : ProbI ems-Created by R u r a l - U r b a n M i g r a t i o n , 26 CHAPTER 3: GENERAL SYSTEMS THEORY 37 3.1 R e l e v a n t L i t e r a t u r e Review 37 3.2 R e l e v a n c e o f Systems Theory t o RUM 43 V CHAPTER 4: A SYSTEMS MODEL OF RURAL-URBAN MIGRATION IN NIGERIA . . 48 4.1 The B a s i c Model 48. 4.1.1 A s s u m p t i o n s U n d e r l y i n g t h e Model 48 . 4.1.2 D e f i n i t i o n o f t h e Model • . . 51 4.1.3 S t o c k V a r i a b l e s 52 t 4.1.4 Rate V a r i a b l e s 61 4.1.5 Ur b a n - R u r a l Feedback Rate V a r i a b l e s '. . . 68 4.1.6 R u r a l - U r b a n M i g r a t i o n as Rate V a r i a b l e 72 4.1.7 The Enviro n m e n t o f t h e System 77 4.2 Advantages o f t h e Systems Approach 80 4.2.1 A H o l i s t i c V i e w p o i n t . . . . . . . . 80 4.2.2 Tr e a t m e n t o f System Feedback E f f e c t s 81 4.2.3 P o l i c y G e n e r a t i o n 81 4.2.4 R e s e a r c h T o o l . . . . . . . . . . 82 • 4.2.5 Some Weaknesses o f t h e Systems Approach 83 CHAPTER 5: APPLICATION OF THE SYSTEMS.MODEL . . 85 5.1 S y s t e m a t i c G e n e r a t i o n o f P o l i c y I n t e r v e n t i o n S u g g e s t i o n s . . 85 5.2 S y s t e m a t i c G e n e r a t i o n o f Hypotheses . 87 CHAPTER 6: SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION 95 6.1 Review . . . . . 95 6.2 D i r e c t i o n s f o r F u t u r e R e s e a r c h 96 BfBLIOGRAPHY 99 VI LIST OF FIGURES 4.1 A SYSTEMS MODEL OF RURAL-URBAN MIGRATION IN NIGERIA (S imp I i f i e d ) . . 49 4.2 A SYSTEMS MODEL OF RURAL-URBAN MIGRATION IN NIGERIA . . . . . . 50 4.3 URBAN-RURAL FEEDBACK LOOPS: REMITTANCES . . 68 4.4 RUM-URBAN UNEMPLOYMENT FEEDBACK LOOP • . . . 75 v i i LIST OF TABLES 2.1 POPULATION ESTIMATES, TROPICAL AFRICA, 1970 .'. . 27 2.2 GROWTH OF EDUCATION IN NIGERIA ( 1 9 6 2 - 6 8 ) : (Annual E n r o l m e n t s ) . 33 2.3 PLANNED PUBLIC EXPENDITURE ON EDUCATION 1970-74: ( P e r c e n t a g e o f T o t a l P u b l i c E x p e n d i t u r e ) 34 4.1 STOCK VARIABLES . . . . . 53 4.2 RATE VARIABLES . . . . . . . . . . 62 5.1 SOME POSSIBLE POLICY INTERVENTIONS . . . 88 Villi ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I i T h i s work i s t h e outcome o f t h e c o n t r i b u t i o n s o f s e v e r a l i n d i v i d u a l s and i n s t i t u t i o n s . In p a r t i c u l a r , I w i s h t o t h a n k P r o f e s s o r H. C r a i g 1 D a v i s , who gave f r e e l y o f h i s t i m e , e n e r g y and a d v i c e as t h e s u p e r v i s o r o f t h e t h e s i s ; P r o f e s s o r Brahm Wiesman, my f a c u l t y a d v i s o r , who read t h e e n t i r e d r a f t and o f f e r e d c o n s t r u c t i v e c r i t i c i s m s ; P r o f e s s o r Paul R o e r , whose i n t e r e s t i n my work was a s o u r c e o f encouragement; D a v i d B a x t e r , who made v a l u a b l e comments on systems s i m u l a t i o n m o d e l l i n g ; Emanuel At a n u and Ezuma Igwe f o r f r e q u e n t d i s c u s s i o n s o f N i g e r i a n c o n d i t i o n s ; B o n n i e S c h o e n b e r g e r and J a n i c e D o y l e , who d i d an e x c e l l e n t j o b of t h e t y p i n g ; t h e C a n a d i a n S c h o l a r s h i p and F e l l o w s h i p Committee and A d m i n i s t r a t i o n f o r my f u n d i n g ; and t h e F e d e r a l Government o f N i g e r i a f o r g i v i n g me t h e • o p p o r t u n i t y o f g r a d u a t e s t u d y i n Canada. My w i f e , E l i z a b e t h , and s o n , D i k e a l w a y s p r o v i d e d a ready e x c u s e f o r me t o t r y h a r d e r . CHAPTER 1 THE PROBLEM, OBJECT IVE, AND METHODOLOGY 1.1 A Sta t e m e n t o f t h e P r o b l e m To t h e e x t e n t t h a t many n e w l y - a r r i v e d m i g r a n t s a r e l i k e l y t o j o i n t h e g r o w i n g p o o l s o f unemployed and h i g h l y underemployed w o r k e r s , and t o t h e e x t e n t t h a t an i n c r e a s i n g l y l a r g e p r o p o r t i o n o f t h e s e m i g r a n t s r e p r e s e n t t h e more e d u c a t e d segments o f s o c i e t y whose p r o d u c t i v e p o t e n t i a l i s l a r g e l y b e i n g d i s s i p a t e d , t h e p r o c e s s o f c o n t i n u e d r u r a l - u r b a n m i g r a t i o n j a t p r e s e n t l e v e l s can no l o n g e r be s a i d t o r e p r e s e n t a d e s i r a b l e economic j phenomenon. U n t i l s o m e t h i n g p o s i t i v e i s done t o r e l i e v e t h i s p r o b l e m , t h e A f r i c a n development e f f o r t w i l l be o n l y p a r t i a l l y ' s u c c e s s f u I . ' • (T o d a r o , 1971: 391) R u r a l - u r b a n m i g r a t i o n i s a u n i v e r s a l p r o c e s s . In most o f t r o p i c a l A f r i c a i t i s r e l a t i v e l y r e c e n t , and p r o c e e d i n g a t a pace t h a t i s a s o u r c e o f c o n c e r n t o i t s governments. Unemployment, s q u a t t e r s e t t l e m e n t s , o v e r l o a d e d o r n o n - e x i s t e n t m u n i c i p a l s e r v i c e s , b u r g e o n i n g urban p o p u l a t i o n s , r u r a l s t a g n a t i o n , e t c . , a r e a l l p roblems i n some way r e l a t e d t o t h e phenomenon o f r u r a l - u r b a n m i g r a t i o n . Because t h e y a r e so c l o s e l y r e l a t e d t o r u r a l - u r b a n m i g r a t i o n , i n t h e sense t h a t each one o f them i s a f f e c t e d by t h e m i g r a t i o n p r o c e s s , t h e l a t t e r has come t o be seen as a major p o l i c y i n t e r v e n t i o n p o i n t i n t h e I a t t e m p t t o come t o g r i p s w i t h t h e r e l a t e d p r o b l e m s . However nobody seems t o know whether i t i s p o s s i b l e t o s i g n i f i c a n t l y s l o w r u r a l - u r b a n m i g r a t i o n ' , what i n s t r u m e n t s a r e r e q u i r e d t o do t h i s , and a t what c o s t . A f a i r l y e x t e n s i v e l i t e r a t u r e has grown up aroun d t h e s u b j e c t o f r u r a l - u r b a n m i g r a t i o n i n A f r i c a . They c o v e r a wide v a r i e t y o f p e r s p e c t i v e s . A g r e a t many o f them a r e o f t h e s o c i o l o g i c a l - a n t h r o p o l o g i c a I v a r i e t y ; some a r e p o l i t i c a l - e c o n o m i c ; a few a r e g e o g r a p h i c a I ; and s t i l l f ewer a r e - 2 r- 1 psycho I o g i c a I . \ Two r e l e v a n t s t a t e m e n t s may be made o f t h e s e - w r i t i n g s . Very few i o f them have been pol i c y - o r i e n t e d - w r i t i n g s ( T o d a r q , 1971; C a l l a w a y , i 1963). More s i g n i f i c a n t l y , even though i n d i v i d u a l ! c o n t r i b u t i o n s may be I e x c e l l e n t , t h e y s t a n d , - c o I I e c t i v e I y , as mere f r a g m e n t s o f an e n t i t y w hich e x i s t s i n r e a l i t y as a "whole". They have t h e r e f o r e f a i l e d t o i m p a r t s u f f i c i e n t knowledge o f t h e e s s e n c e o f t h e phenomenon t o e n a b l e d e c i s i o n - m a k e r s t o move ahead w i t h c o n f i d e n c e . N e v e r t h e l e s s , i n t h e e a r l y s i x t i e s , t h e Governments o f E a s t e r n and Western N i g e r i a d i d g e n e r a t e and implement f a r m - s e t t l e m e n t p o l i c i e s aimed a t stemming t h e r i s i n g t i d e o f r u r a l exodus. F o r a c o m b i n a t i o n o f r e a s o n s , t h e s e p o l i c i e s d i d n o t l i v e up t o t h e e x p e c t a t i o n s o f t h o s e who c r e a t e d them. P r o b a b l y t h e most fundamental c a u s e of t h e d i s a p p o i n t - ments was f a i l u r e t o a p p r e c i a t e t h e c o m p l e x i t y and s c a l e o f t h e p r o b l e m t h a t was b e i n g a d d r e s s e d . M e a n w h i l e , c o n c e r n o v e r t h e problems b e i n g c r e a t e d by r u r a l - u r b a n m i g r a t i o n c o n t i n u e s t o mount, and s o o n e r o r l a t e r , amid t h e c o n f l i c t i n g , c o m p e t i n g and p a r t i a l arguments o f t h e e x p e r t s , major d e c i s i o n s a r e g o i n g t o be t a k e n by N i g e r i a n , Governments t o t r y t o come t o t e r m s w i t h t h e s i t u a t i o n . T h i s work i s founded upon t h e t h e s i s t h a t r u r a l - u r b a n m i g r a t i o n e x i s t s as p a r t o f a complex s y s t e m , and s u b j e c t t o complex s y s t e m b e h a v i o u r . O n l y a systems model o-f t h e phenomenon i s p o w e r f u l enough t o c a p t u r e t h e m u l t i p l e d i m e n s i o n s o f t h e r e a l - w o r l d s y s t e m . I t i s t h e aim h e r e t o make a c o n t r i b u t i o n , however modest, t o w a r d s t h e b u i l d i n g o f s u c h a systems model, and t o show how i t may be r e l a t e d t o p o l i c y . - 3 - 1.2 O b j e c t i v e o f Study The o b j e c t i v e o f t h i s s t u d y i s t o b u i l d a c o n c e p t u a l systems model o f t h e p r o c e s s o f r u r a l - u r b a n m i g r a t i o n w i t h p a r t i c u l a r r e f e r e n c e t o . N i g e r i a . T h i s model i s i n t e n d e d t o s e r v e t h e f o l l o w i n g p u r p o s e s : a) t o s t r u c t u r e e x i s t i n g knowledge about r u r a l - u r b a n m i g r a t i o n i n o r d e r t o s h a r p e n o u r u n d e r s t a n d i n g o f , and t h i n k i n g o n , t h e s u b j e c t , b) t o i s o l a t e t e s t a b l e h y p o t h e s e s about t h e process, ' c ) t o g e n e r a t e , s y s t e m a t i c a I Iy, i n i t i a l p o l i c y o p t i o n s p e r t a i n i n g t o m i g r a t i o n , d) t o p r o v i d e a d a t a c o l l e c t i o n framework, and e) t o l a y t h e f o u n d a t i o n f o r e x t e n d e d work i n t h i s a r e a o f r e s e a r c h . 1.3 Methodology The methodology o f t h i s s t u d y f o l l o w s g e n e r a l l y t h e p r o c e d u r e f o r t h e development o f systems s i m u l a t i o n models i n t h e s o c i a l s c i e n c e s and p l a n n i n g d o w r y , 1965; F o r r e s t e r , 1968; S t o g d i l l , 1970; B a x t e r , 1973). 1.3.1 F u n c t i o n o f t h e Systems Model ' The f i r s t s t a g e i n t h e development o f t h e model i s t o d e c i d e , e x p l i c i t l y , t h e o b j e c t i v e s and scope o f t h e model, t h e r e b y d e t e r m i n i n g what w i l l be i n c l u d e d i n t h e model (and, o f e q u a l i m p o r t a n c e , e x c l u d e d ) , what l e v e l o f d e t a i l w i l l be i n v o l v e d , how t h e model i s t o be s t r u c t u r e d , what i s t o be emphasized ... and what p r i o r i t i e s w i l l be used t o g u i d e t h e p r o c e s s . There " i s no o b j e c t i v e method, no f o r m u l a , no s e t o f r u l e s , t o d e t e r - mine t h e s e : t h e y a r e based on t h e - o b j e c t i v e s and i n t e r e s t s o f t h e p e r s o n s b u i l d i n g t h e model and t h e c o n s t r a i n t s imposed upon them. ( B a x t e r , 1973: 4) The f i r s t t a s k o f t h e m o d e l l i n g e f f o r t , t h e r e f o r e , i s t o s t a t e , i e x p l i c i t l y , t h e f u n c t i o n e x p e c t e d o f t h e systems model o f r u r a l - u r b a n i m i g r a t i o n t o p e r f o r m . T h i s has a l r e a d y been a d e q u a t e l y c o v e r e d i n S e c t i o n 1.2. I 1.3.2. D e f i n i t i o n o f t h e System The d e f i n i t i o n o f t h e system i n v o l v e s t h e c h o i c e o f t h e components t o go i n t o t h e model and t h e i r c l a s s i f i c a t i o n , and t h e d e s i g n a t i o n - o f f u n c t i o n a l r e l a t i o n s h i p s between such components. In t h e s e l e c t i o n o f t h e components t o go i n t o a model, t h e b u i l d e r i s f u n d a m e n t a l l y g u i d e d by h i s own knowledge o f t h e r e a l - w o r l d s y s t e m , and e x i s t i n g s t u d i e s o f t h e phenomenon by o t h e r p e o p l e . He t h e n a t t e m p t s t o s e l e c t t h o s e s i g n i f i c a n t components t h a t b e a r on t h e s i t u a t i o n he i s i n t e r e s t e d i n and l i m i t t h e s t u d y t o them ( P a r s e g i a n , 1972: 2 5 ) . The f o l l o w i n g m o d e l l i n g e f f o r t w i l l r e l y on t h e a u t h o r ' s f i r s t - h a n d ' knowledge o f t h e p r o c e s s o f r u r a l - u r b a n m i g r a t i o n i n s o u t h - e a s t e r n N i g e r i a , and on a number o f key d e s c r i p t i v e m a t e r i a l s on m i g r a t i o n and G e n e r a l Systems Theory. The r e a s o n f o r t h e c l a s s i f i c a t i o n o r g r o u p i n g o f components i s t h a t t h e l a t t e r d i f f e r a t l e a s t i n terms o f t h e i r f u n c t i o n s w i t h i n t h e s y s t e m . The model o f r u r a l - u r b a n m i g r a t i o n t o be b u i l t i s i n t e n d e d t o r e f l e c t t h e dynamic a s p e c t s o f t h e p r o c e s s . T h e r e f o r e , t h e r e a r e two c l a s s e s o f components t h a t must be r e c o g n i z e d - components c o n c e i v e d as " s t o c k s " and t h o s e c o n c e i v e d as " f l o w s " o r r a t e s d o w r y , 1965). A " s t o c k " i s an i n v e n t o r y o f items s u f f i c i e n t l y homogeneous t o be t r e a t e d as h a v i n g o n l y t h e d i m e n s i o n of s i z e , e g . , t h e number o f uneducated unemployed p e o p l e i n a r u r a l community. T h i s i n v e n t o r y may change o v e r t i m e , and such changes p e r u n i t t i m e a r e t h e " f l o w s " o r r a t e s . In a d d i t i o n t o t h e above two c l a s s e s o f components, a t h i r d group i s r e c o g n i z e d , and i t c o n s i s t s o f a l l t h e components which a r e c o n c e i v e d . \ t o be o u t s i d e t h e s e t o f s p e c i f i e d components o f t h e system. C o l l e c t - i v e l y t h e y a r e known as t h e system e n v i r o n m e n t . Once t h e components o f a model have been chosen and c l a s s i f i e d , t h e n e x t t a s k s a r e t o a s s i g n t h e i n t e r r e l a t i o n s h i p s between components and t o d e v e l o p a d i a g r a m o f t h e s y s t e m . The systems d i a g r a m shows a I I t h e components o f t h e s y s t e m and t h e i n t e r r e l a t i o n s h i p s t h a t e x i s t . Two c o n v e n t i o n s w i l l a p p l y h e r e : f i r s t , I s t o c k s a r e shown as r e c t a n g u l a r boxes w h i l e r a t e s a r e d e p i c t e d as hexagons; s e c o n d l y , d i r e c t e d a r r o w s , which r e p r e s e n t i n t e r r e l a t i o n s h i p s , do not l i n k two s t o c k components d i r e c t l y w i t h o u t an i n t e r v e n i n g r a t e component o r p r o c e s s . The p r o c e s s o f mode I - b u i I d i n g does not p r o c e e d as n e a t l y as t h e above d i s c u s s i o n i m p l i e s , however, i t i s i n p a r t a c r e a t i v e p r o c e s s c h a r a c t e r i z e d by t r i a l and e r r o r , c o n t i n u o u s model e n r i c h m e n t o r e l a b o r - a t i o n , and a n a l o g y o r a s s o c i a t i o n ( M o r r i s , 1967). The p r o c e s s o f c o n t i n u o u s e n r i c h m e n t r e f e r s t o t h e t e c h n i q u e o f p r o c e e d i n g from a v e r y s i m p l e model f a r removed from r e a l i t y t o more and more complex and r e a l i s - t i c v e r s i o n s . A n a l o g y o r a s s o c i a t i o n i n m o d e l l i n g i s t h e p r o c e s s whereby thejmode I - b u i I d e r s e e k s i n s i g h t i n r e l a t e d e x i s t i n g models. 1.3.3 A p p l i c a t i o n o f t h e Systems Model Because t h e model t o be b u i l t h ere i s a c o n c e p t u a l one, not i n v o l v i n g t h e use o f any q u a n t i t a t i v e e m p i r i c a l d a t a , i t i s not p o s s i b l e t o p r o c e e d t o t h e t h i r d phase o f model development: t h e c a l i b r a t i o n o f t h e model w i t h r e a l d a t a . However i t w i l l be a p p l i e d here p r i m a r i l y as a b a s i s f o r i s o l a t i n g a number o f t e s t a b l e h y p o t h e s e s about t h e r e a l w o r l d s y s t e m , - 6 - and f o r d e m o n s t r a t i n g a s y s t e m a t i c t e c h n i q u e f o r g e n e r a t i n g a range o f i n i t i a l p o l i c y o p t i o n s . CHAPTER 2 \ \ w REVIEW OF LITERATURE AND THE NIGERI AN'EXPERIENCE 1 ! I 2.1 Review o f t h e L i t e r a t u r e on M i g r a t i o n The l i t e r a t u r e on RUM i n A f r i c a i s v a s t , and t o a g r e a t e x t e n t r e p e t i t i v e . I t i s hard t o r e f e r t o a l l o f i t , so t h e b i a s here w i l l be i n f a v o u r o f t h o s e t h a t a r e p a r t i c u l a r l y r e l e v a n t i n an o b v i o u s way t o t h e t a s k a t hand. . , , P e r h a p s i t i s f a i r t o a s s e r t t h a t t h e b u l k o f t h e w r i t i n g s on RUM i n i • / A f r i c a r e v o l v e s a r o u n d f o u r i s s u e s : c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f m i g r a n t s ; p r o c e s s e s o f RUM; c a u s e s ; and c o n s e q u e n c e s . I t i s t o t h e f i r s t t h r e e o f t h e s e t h a t we now t u r n i n t h i s s e c t i o n . 2.1.1 C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f M i g r a n t s The a r e a o f m i g r a n t c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s i s dominated by t h e work o f C a l d w e l l ( 1 9 6 9 ) , who d i d a l a r g e - s c a l e , q u e s t i o n n a i r e s u r v e y o f m i g r a n t s i n Ghana i n t h e e a r l y s i x t i e s . T h i s e x c e l l e n t p i e c e o f work w i l l be mentioned c o n t i n u o u s l y ; but t h i s i s not meant t o u n d e r e s t i m a t e t h e v a l u a b l e c o n t r i b u t i o n s o f s e v e r a l o t h e r a u t h o r s t o t h e s t u d y o f RUM i n A f r i c a . T o g e t h e r t h e y have p r o v i d e d a f a i r l y c o m p r e h e n s i v e d e mographic, e d u c a t i o n a l a n d l e c o n o m i c p r o f i l e o f t h e m i g r a n t . Demographic C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s Though e a r l y s t u d i e s o f RUM c o r r e c t l y i n d i c a t e d a p r e d o m i n a n t male r e p r e s e n t a t i o n i n m i g r a t i o n s t r e a m s , more r e c e n t f i n d i n g s p o i n t t o t h e f a c t o f an a l m o s t e q u i v a l e n t p r o p o r t i o n o f males and f e m a l e s . In t h e Ghana c a s e , f o r i n s t a n c e , C a l d w e l l (1969) o b s e r v e d such a b a l a n c e i n t h e m i g r a n t s t r e a m s . - 8 '- W i t h r e g a r d t o age, t h e m i g r a n t i s a l m o s t a l w a y s young. C a l d w e l l (1969) ! o b s e r v e d t h a t t h e g r e a t e s t p r o p e n s i t y t o m i g r a t e was i n t h e .15-19 age c a t e - 1 g o r y . Rempel (1970) n o t e d a p e a k ' f o r t h e 20-25 age group i n Kenya; w h i l e C a l l a w a y ' s (1967) s u r v e y o f m i g r a n t p o p u l a t i o n for! Ibadan, N i g e r i a , showed i t h a t t h e 15-25 age group was t h e most dominant. There i s some e v i d e n c e t o show t h a t beyond t h e age o f 45 t h e number o f r e t u r n i n g m i g r a n t s exceeds t h e number o f o u t m i g r a n t s ( C a l d w e l l , 1969; Ominde, 1967). E d u c a t i o n a l C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s A p o s i t i v e c o r r e l a t i o n between t h e e d u c a t i o n a l a c h i e v e m e n t o f a m i g r a n t and h i s p r o p e n s i t y t o m i g r a t e i s f a i r l y w e l l e s t a b l i s h e d a c r o s s t h e w o r l d . On t h e Ghana scene C a l d w e l l (1969) saw t h i s f a c t o r as t h e dominant one i n t h e p r o p e n s i t y t o m i g r a t e , t h e l a t t e r i n c r e a s i n g r a p i d l y . w i t h t h e d u r a t i o n o f f o r m a l e d u c a t i o n . O t h e r f i n d i n g s by Rempel (1970) i n Kenya and Sabot ( 1 9 7 2 ) , i n T a n z a n i a l e n d s u p p o r t t o t h o s e o f C a l d w e l l . And i n a d d i t i o n , S a b o t ' s a n a l y s i s r e v e a l e d t h e a d d i t i o n a l d i m e n s i o n t h a t t h e s e l e c t i v i t y o f m i g r a n t s by t h e i r l e v e l s o f e d u c a t i o n has i n c r e a s e d o v e r t i m e . That i s t o s a y , t h a t o v e r t i m e t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f p e o p l e , i n m i g r a t i o n s t r e a m s , w i t h h i g h e r l e v e l s o f e d u c a t i o n a l a c h i e v e m e n t i n c r e a s e s r e l a t i v e t o t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f t h o s e w i t h lower q u a l i f i c a t i o n s . Thus t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f h i g h s c h o o l g r a d u a t e s i n c r e a s e d r e l a t i v e t o t h a t o f p r i m a r y s c h o o l g r a d u a t e s . In T a n z a n i a t h e e v i d e n c e point's t o t h e f a c t t h a t p r i m a r y s c h o o l g r a d u a t e s a r e b e g i n n i n g t o respond t o t h e d i m i n i s h i n g j o b o p p o r t u n i t i e s i n t h e urban a r e a s by s t a y i n g i n t h e i r r u r a l l o c a l e s w h i l e s e c o n d a r y s c h o o l g r a d u a t e s now form a h i g h e r p r o p o r t i o n i n t h e urbanward m i g r a t o r y s t r e a m s ( S a b o t , 1972). S a b o t ' s f i n d i n g seems t o s u g g e s t t h a t t h e p r o c e s s o f r u r a l - u r b a n m i g r a t i o n e x h i b i t s a b e h a v i o u r s i m i l a r t o t h a t of f e e d - b a c k systems i n w h i c h p r e s e n t b e h a v i o u r depends upon t h e consequences o f p r e v i o u s a c t i o n . In t h e p a s t p r i m a r y s c h o o l g r a d u a t e s were i n g r e a t demand f o r work i n t h e urban a r e a s ; t h e s e g r a d u a t e s responded t o t h i s by m i g r a t i n g i n l a r g e numbers, c l o g g i n g the market; a g a i n i n response, many are s t a y i n g back in \ r u r a l a r e a s . \\ It i s reasonable t o expect t h a t some such feedback response i s o p e r a t i n g in the N i g e r i a n s i t u a t i o n t o d a y , and t h a t not o n l y pr imary s c h o o l , but a l s o high, school graduates are i n v o l v e d . Tomorrow u n i v e r s i t y graduates may w e l l be i n v o l v e d t o o . Economic ' C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s " F i n d i n g s i n t h i s area i n d i c a t e t h a t m i g r a t i o n streams are dominated I by school graduates who have had no p r e v i o u s job e x p e r i e n c e s and t h e r e f o r e no incomes. Efoth Rempel (1970) in Kenya and Cal laway (1967) in N i g e r i a found t h a t o v e r 50$ o f t h e i r migrant samples were of the schooI-graduate c a t e g o r y . The r e s t were made'up of farmers and s e l f - e m p l o y e d c r a f t s m e n . T h i s percentage s p l i t may w e l l be an underest imate o f the schooI-graduate component, though the s i z e of the component i t s e l f v a r i e s w i t h t ime and p l a c e . . In the c u r r e n t southern N i g e r i a n s i t u a t i o n the p r o p o r t i o n of pr imary and high school graduates in m i g r a t i o n streams may w e l l be of the o r d e r o f over 60 per c e n t , w h i l e a lower f i g u r e may be expected in the n o r t h e r n s t a t e s . L i t t l e data e x i s t on the income s t a t u s of househoIds. from which migrants o r i g i n a t e , and t h e r e i s lack of agreement even w i t h i n the l i t t l e t h a t does e x i s t . Many c o n t r i b u t o r s b e l i e v e t h a t the heavy o u t - m i g r a t i o n from densely populated r u r a l o r i g i n s i n d i c a t e t h a t migrants g e n e r a l l y d e r i v e from poor households ( E l k a n , 1 9 6 0 ) . On the o t h e r hand, C a l d w e l l ' s (1969) Ghana survey t u r n e d up ev idence t h a t m i g r a n t s tend t o o r i g i n a t e from households Of above-average means. In l i n e w i t h t h i s , H i l l C 1 9 6 9 ) , in a survey of N i g e r i a n pr imary school g r a d u a t e s , r e p o r t e d t h a t the h i g h e s t r a t e s of - Im- m i g r a t i o n were found t o o c c u r among t h e h i g h e s t and l o w e s t income house-- i h o l d s i n t h e r u r a l community i n v e s t i g a t e d . One p o s s i b l e i n t e r p r e t a t i o n o f t h i s i s t h a t w e l l - t o - d o f a m i l i e s a r e a l s o t h e ones most c a p a b l e o f g i v i n g h i g h s c h o o l e d u c a t i o n t o t h e i r c h i l d r e n , wh'ich would enhance t h e l a t t e r ' s p r o p e n s i t y t o m i g r a t e . They a r e a l s o t h e ones most l i k e l y t o -have a member.of t h e f a m i l y a l r e a d y i n an urban a r e a t o p r o v i d e a base f o r o t h e r members. W h i l e t h e m i d d l e c l a s s f a m i l i e s f i n d t h e m s e l v e s r e l a t i v e l y c o m f o r t a b l e i n t h e l o c a l o r d e r o f t h i n g s , t h e low-income o n e s , p r o b a b l y w i t h v e r y l i t t l e l a n d , a r e more l i k e l y t o t r y t h e i r l u c k e l s e - where. A b a s i c q u e s t i o n t h a t a r i s e s h e r e i s whether r i s i n g r u r a l incomes w i l l have an a c c e l e r a t i n g i n f l u e n c e upon RUM, and c o n s e q u e n t l y w h e t h e r p o l - i c i e s o f r u r a l development aimed a t d i s c o u r a g i n g i t a r e o n l y s e l f - d e f e a t i n g . 2.1.2 The P r o c e s s e s o f R u r a l - U r b a n M i g r a t i o n The p r o c e s s e s o f RUM i n A f r i c a , as f a r as can be a s c e r t a i n e d from e x i s t i n g l i t e r a t u r e , may be viewed i n terms o f a number o f s u b - p r o c e s s e s : u r b a n - r u r a l i n t e r a c t i o n ; c h a i n m i g r a t i o n ; s t e p w i s e m i g r a t i o n ; d i s t a n c e - decay e f f e c t s ; s e l f - a d j u s t i n g r e s p o n s e s . U r b a n - R u r a l I n t e r a c t i o n A s i g n i f i c a n t a s p e c t o f t h e p r o c e s s e s , o f RUM i n most o f A f r i c a i s t h e v e r y h i g h degree o f i n t e r a c t i o n between t h e m i g r a n t i n t h e c i t y and h i s kinsmen i n t h e r u r a l a r e a . In a sense most u r b a n i t e s have t h e i r r o o t s s t i l l f i r m l y embedded i n t h e v i l l a g e from which t h e y o r i g i n a t e d . An. urban d w e l l e r has two l o y a l t i e s : one p a r t o f him i s l o y a l t o t h e urban c e n t r e ; t h e o t h e r t o h i s r u r a l p l a c e o f o r i g i n . The e x p r e s s i o n o f t h i s r u r a l l o y a l t y t a k e s d i f f e r e n t f orms. The - 1 1 - u r b a n i t e i s i n c o n s t a n t c o n t a c t w i t h h i s f o l k s back home t h r o u g h l e t t e r s , and makes p e r s o n a l v i s i t s f r e q u e n t l y t o them, e s p e c i a l l y on c e r e m o n i a l o c c a s i o n s . A g r e a t many p e o p l e from t h e r u r a l community a l s o pay f r e q u e n t v i s i t s t o t h e i r kinsmen i n t h e c i t y . Thus t h e degree o f c o m m u n i c a t i o n and p e r s o n a l c o n t a c t between t h e u r b a n i t e and h i s r u r a l kinsmen i s v e r y h i g h . One o f t h e more o u t s t a n d i n g r o l e s o f t h e u r b a n i t e i s t o s u p p l y i n f o r m a t i o n t o h i s r e l a t i v e s i n t h e v i l l a g e about urban c o n d i t i o n s , i n c l u d i n g j o b o p p o r t u n i t i e s , and t o u n d e r t a k e t o p r o v i d e accommodation and f o o d f o r new m i g r a n t s from t h e c o u n t r y . T h i s r o l e i s s o m e t h i n g o f a d u t y f o r urban d w e l l e r s , most o f whom would go t o t h e f u l I e x t e n t o f t h e i r f i n a n c i a l means t o c a r r y i t o u t . P r e o c c u p a t i o n w i t h t h e w e l f a r e o f t h e r u r a l home on t h e p a r t o f u r b a n i t e s a l s o e x p r e s s e s i t s e l f i n t h e f o r m a t i o n o f e t h n i c , m u t u a l - a i d , o r g a n i z a t i o n s ( L i t t l e , 1965), t h e e x p r e s s p u r p o s e s o f which a r e t o promote, from t h e urban end, t h e i n t e r e s t s o f t h e i r r e s p e c t i v e r u r a l homes t h r o u g h such r u r a l development p r o j e c t s as w a t e r s u p p l y , e l e c t r i f i c a t i o n , r o a d , h e a l t h c l i n i c , h o s p i t a l and s c h o o l c o n s t r u c t i o n . The p r o v i s i o n o f s h e l t e r , f o o d and j o b s f o r n e w l y - a r r i v e d m i g r a n t s a r e a l l p a r t o f t h e c o n c e r n s o f t h e s e e t h n i c o r g a n i z a t i o n s . • • -- Most u r b a n i t e s r e t i r e t o t h e i r v i l l a g e o r i g i n s a f t e r t h e age o f about 45 ( C a l d w e l l , 1969). In c o m b i n a t i o n w i t h younger men who c o u l d not make i t i n t h e urban c e n t r e s , t h e s e s e n i o r c i t i z e n s r e t i r i n g t o t h e i r b i r t h p l a c e s b r i n g about a r e v e r s e m i g r a t i o n s t r e a m - u r b a n - r u r a l m i g r a t i o n . P e r h a p s one o f t h e more s i g n i f i c a n t a s p e c t s o f t h e s t r o n g u r b a n - r u r a l l i n k a g e s i s t h e f l o w o f w e a l t h between urban and r u r a l l o c a t i o n s . R u r a l p e o p l e send s m a l l g i f t s o f farm p r o d u c t s on t h e i r f r e q u e n t v i s i t s t o u r b a n i t e s from whom t h e y a l s o r e c e i v e g i f t s , e s p e c i a l l y c a s h and a s s o r t - i ments o f m a n u f a c t u r e d goods. More s i g n i f i c a n t l y u r b a n i t e s make r e g u l a r r e m i t t a n c e s t o r e l a t i v e s i n t h e r u r a l a r e a s . Though t h e a c t u a l m agnitudes o f t h e s e r e m i t t a n c e s have not been c a r e f u l l y d e t e r m i n e d , t h e r e i s some e v i d e n c e from Kenya t h a t some 21$ o f t h e wage b i l l s o f low and m i d d l e income groups f l o w t o t h e r u r a l a r e a s i n t h i s form (Johnson and W h i t e l a w , 1969). I t w i l l a p p e a r t h a t t h e above f i g u r e i s not u n r e a l i s t i c f o r much o f N i g e r i a , and t h a t a m a j o r p a r t o f t h e s e r e m i t t a n c e s go t o s u p p o r t s c h o o l f e e s and c o n s u m p t i o n . ! A l l t h i s i s t o u n d e r s c o r e t h e tremendous impact o f t h e urban p o p u l a t i o n s upon t h e i r kinsmen back home and t h e d i r e c t i m p l i c a t i o n s o f t h i s f o r f u r t h e r o u t - m i g r a t i o n and r e v e r s e m i g r a t i o n upon r e t i r e m e n t . I t must be r e c o g n i z e d t h a t a m a j o r i t y o f p r e s e n t urban p o p u l a t i o n s i s f i r s t g e n e r a t i o n u r b a n i t e s , t h a t i s , t h e y were a c t u a l l y born and b r o u g h t up i n t h e c o u n t r y . T h i s c l a s s o f u r b a n i t e s f i n d t h a t i t s r u r a l r o o t s a r e v e r y much a p a r t o f i t s l i f e and f i n d g r e a t p l e a s u r e i n i d e n t i f y i n g w i t h r u r a l o r i g i n s . I t i s f a i r l y c l e a r t h a t t h e s t r e n g t h o f t h e u r b a n - r u r a l i n t e r a c t i o n , as d e s c r i b e d above, w i l l weaken as one g e n e r a t i o n g i v e s way t o a n o t h e r . What i s not so c l e a r i s how f a s t t h i s w i l l happen. C h a i n M i g r a t i o n • • ~- I C l o s e l y r e l a t e d t o t h e i s s u e o f a s t r o n g u r b a n - r u r a l i n t e r a c t i o n i s t h e i m p o r t a n t s u b - p r o c e s s o f c h a i n m i g r a t i o n . When one member o f a c e r t a i n f a m i l y e s t a b l i s h e s a f o o t h o l d i n an-urban a r e a , t h e p r o b a b i l i t y t h a t o t h e r members o f t h e same f a m i l y w i l l m i g r a t e , and t o t h e same urban c e n t r e , i n c r e a s e s r a p i d l y : By e x t e n s i o n , when a s u b s t a n t i a l number o f m i g r a n t s l e a v e a p a r t i c u l a r o r i g i n , t h e a c t o f m i g r a t i n g from t h a t community g r a d u a l l y a c q u i r e s t h e f o r c e o f t r a d i t i o n and - 1 3 - ; I many-more p e o p l e a r e p r e p a r e d t o f o l l o w t h e s t e p s o f t h e i r kinsmen gone t o t h e urban c e n t r e s . . V' i In a c t u a l f a c t t h i s c h a i n p r o c e s s r e s u l t s from t h e h i g h degree o f i n f o r m a t i o n f l o w i n g from t h e urban c e n t r e s t o a p a r t i c u l a r r u r a l f a m i l y o r community; t h e added g u a r a n t e e o f i n i t i a l accommodation and fo o d a s s i s t a n c e by kinsmen a t t h e urban end works t o r e i n f o r c e t h e p r o c e s s . H a g e r s t r a n d (1957) r e c o g n i z e d t h e i m p o r t a n c e o f p o s i t i v e f e e d b a c k i m p u l s e s from d e s t i n a t i o n s i n t h e d e c i s i o n by p e o p l e t o m i g r a t e . Some a t t e m p t w i l l be made t o i n c o r p o r a t e s o m e t h i n g o f t h e c h a i n e f f e c t f e e d b a c k r e l a t i o n s h i p s between urban and r u r a l a r e a s as an a s p e c t o f t h e D i s t a n c e - D e c a y E f f e c t Many o b s e r v e r s have w i t n e s s e d t o t h e major i m p o r t a n c e o f t h e d i s t a n c e - decay e f f e c t i n t h e p r o c e s s o f m i g r a t i o n . E v e r y m i g r a n t , i n moving from an o r i g i n t o a d i s t i n a t i o n , has t o c o n t e n d w i t h t h e f r i c t i o n o f f e r e d by t h e i n t e r v e n i n g d i s t a n c e . T h i s f r i c t i o n may t a k e t h e form o f t h e money c o s t o f o v e r c o m i n g d i s t a n c e ; i t may be t h e t i m e and i n c o n v e n i e n c e c o s t o f t r a v e l . Of e q u a l s i g n i f i c a n c e w i t h r e g a r d t o r u r a l - u r b a n m i g r a t i o n , i s c u l t u r a l d i s t a n c e . In t h e A f r i c a n e n v i r o n m e n t , more t h a n i n most o t h e r s , t h e f u r t h e r away a ~ m i g r a n t t r a v e l s t h e l g r e a t e r t h e d i v e r g e n c e between h i s home c u l t u r e and t h e new one e n c o u n t e r e d . C e r t a i n l y i n N i g e r i a t h e e f f e c t o f c u l t u r a l d i s t a n c e has c o n s i d e r a b l e impact on t h e t r a v e l b e h a v i o u r o f p r i m a r y s c h o o l and most h i g h s c h o o l g r a d u a t e s . Hence, c e t e r i s p a r i b u s , .a m i g r a n t would go t o a d e s t i n a t i o n n e a r e r t o h i s o r i g i n a l home t h a n one t h a t i s f a r t h e r away. In t e r m s o f i n f o r m a t i o n t h e o r y , t h e g r e a t e r t h e d i s t a n c e between a p r o s p e c t i v e mi g r a n t and a p a r t i c u l a r d e s t i n a t i o n , t h e l e s s t h e i n f o r m a t i o n he i s l i k e l y t o have about t h a t d e s t i n a t i o n and t h e l e s s t h e l i k e l i h o o d i t h a t he w i l l move t h e r e . . | However t h e d i s t a n c e - d e c a y e f f e c t must be lo o k e d a t i n p e r s p e c t i v e . j F i r s t i t i s s u b j e c t t o m o d i f i c a t i o n by t h e o p e r a t i o n o f t h e c h a i n e f f e c t i d i s c u s s e d e a r l i e r . The p r o b a b i l i t y t h a t a m i g r a n t w i l l go t o a g i v e n d e s t i n a t i o n b e a r s an i n v e r s e r e l a t i o n , t o t h e d i s t a n c e and a d i r e c t r e l a t i o n t o t h e a t t r a c t i v e n e s s o f t h e d e s t i n a t i o n . One i m p o r t a n t e l ement i n t h e a t t r a c t i v e n e s s bundle i s whether a p o t e n t i a l m i g r a n t has kinsmen o r not i n a p a r t i c u l a r d e s t i n a t i o n . D i s t a n c e - d e c a y e f f e c t , s e c o n d l y , has t o be seen i n terms o f t h e development p r o c e s s o f a s o c i e t y . As t r a n s p o r t a t i o n and communication systems improve, as p e o p l e become e c o n o m i c a l l y s t r o n g e r t o a b s o r b t h e f r i c t i o n o f d i s t a n c e , and as s o c i e t y becomes more open, t h e d i s t a n c e - d e c a y e f f e c t on m i g r a t i o n d w i n d l e s . So i t i s a n o t h e r t i m e - d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e . ' S t e p w i s e M i g r a t i o n S t e p w i s e m i g r a t i o n d e s c r i b e s t h e p r o c e s s i n wh i c h a m i g r a n t , o v e r t i m e , moves up'the s e t t l e m e n t h i e r a r c h y i n s t e p s from t h e s m a l l market c e n t r e n e a r h i s v i l l a g e , t h r o u g h i n t e r m e d i a t e r e g i o n a l o r p r o v i n c i a l urban c e n t r e s , t o a n a t i o n a l m e t r o p o l i s . I t i s not s u g g e s t e d t h a t a l l m i g r a n t s must end up a t a n a t i o n a l m e t r o p o l i s , but t h e i d e a o f a p r o g r e s s i o n from t h e v i l l a g e , t h e n e a r e s t s e r v i c e c e n t r e , t h e p r o v i n c i a l urban c e n t r e and f i n a l l y t o a m e t r o p o l i s i s e s s e n t i a l t o t h e c o n c e p t o f s t e p w i s e m i g r a t i o n . Some such p r o c e s s was i d e n t i f i e d by A s h t o n (1966) i n h i s s t u d y "of 18th c e n t u r y B r i t a i n . The p r o g r e s s i o n i n t h i s c a s e was from farms t o v i l l a g e s , market towns and f i n a l l y t o t h e l a r g e r i n d u s t r i a l c e n t r e s . I t was s u g g e s t e d t h a t i n t h i s way a m i g r a n t a v o i d e d a sudden b r e a k i n h i s p a t t e r n o f l i v i n g and m a i n t a i n e d a c o n t i n u i t y . C o l l i n s ( 1 9 5 2 ) , Harvey ( 1 9 6 8 ) , R i d d e l I (1970) and R i d d e l I and Harvey (1972) i n d i c a t e d t h a t t h e p r o c e s s o f s t e p w i s e m i g r a t i o n was o p e r a t i n g i n urbanward m i g r a t i o n i n S i e r r a Leone. But t h e d a t a upon w h i c h t h e c o n c l u - s i o n was made c o u l d be more s o l i d . G r e g o r y (1971) a l s o r e p o r t e d e v i d e n c e o f t h e same p r o c e s s i n Upper V o l t a . However, C a l d w e l l (1969) d i d not f i n d t h e p r o c e s s s i g n i f i c a n t i n Ghana. However i t can be argued t h a t because o f t h e f a i r l y s t r o n g e f f e c t o f c h a i n m i g r a t i o n p e o p l e who move do so w i t h s p e c i f i c d e s t i n a t i o n s i n ' m i n d , and, i f t h e y a r e s u c c e s s f u l i n o b t a i n i n g j o b s , t e n d t o s t a y on i n such d e s t i n a t i o n s . The t e n d e n c y t o s t a y on i n a p l a c e once a j o b has been s e c u r e d i n s t e a d o f moving up t h e urban h i e r a r c h y i s l i k e l y t o be s t r o n g •under c o n d i t i o n s o f h i g h unemployment. To many a b i r d i n hand i s b e t t e r t h a n t e n i n t h e woods. M i g r a n t s who f a i l t o o b t a i n j o b s , i n a r e a s o n a b l e t i m e , i n t h e i r f . i r s t urban' d e s t i n a t i o n s w i l l have a s t r o n g t e m p t a t i o n t o -.move up t h e urban h i e r a r c h y , and p r o b a b l y end up a t t h e m e t r o p o l i s . The s t a t e o f unemployment i n N i g e r i a , p a r t i c u l a r l y among young s c h o o l g r a d - u a t e s s u g g e s t s t h a t t h e r e may be some degree o f t h i s k i n d o f s t e p w i s e movement. But t h i s w i l l happen not because o f some i r r e s i s t a b l e a t t r a c t i v e f o r c e o f t h e m e t r o p o l i s but because lower o r d e r urban p l a c e s i n c r e a s i n g l y f a i l t o s a t i s f y the primary d e s i r e o f a m i g r a n t : t h e d e s i r e f o r wage employment. T h i s p o i n t needs t o be made as t h e i s s u e o f d e c e n t r a l i z a t i o n o f urban i n v e s t m e n t as a p o l i c y f o r r e d u c i n g t h e u n f a v o u r a b l e consequences o f r u r a l - u r b a n m i g r a t i o n f o r m e t r o p o I i t a n . a r e a s i s f a r from s e t t l e d . S e l f A d j u s t i n g Responses t t was r e p o r t e d e a r l i e r t h a t t h e r e was some e v i d e n c e t h a t m i g r a t i o n among p r i m a r y s c h o o l g r a d u a t e s i n T a n z a n i a was r e s p o n d i n g t o d i m i n i s h i n g employment o p p o r t u n i t i e s t o t h i s c l a s s o f l a b o u r (Sabot,. 1972). - 16 - I t i s p r o b a b l e t h a t some such p r o c e s s i s o p e r a t i n g i n N i g e r i a and wiI I a f f e c t t h e e n t i r e e d u c a t i o n a l h i e r a r c h y e v e n t u a l l y . A more g e n e r a l way o f s t a t i n g t h i s i s t h a t t h e o p e r a t i o n o f RUM w i l l respond t o e x i s t i n g urban and r u r a l c o n d i t i o n s , and t h a t t h e r e i s no such t h i n g as an a u t o m a t i c e m p t y i n g o f a l l r u r a l p e o p l e i n t o urban c e n t r e s once t h e p r o c e s s i s s e t i n t o m o t i o n . . Among t h e c o n d i t i o n s t h a t w i l l be i m p o r t a n t i n i n f I u e n c i n g d e c i s i o n s t o m i g r a t e a r e t h e s t a t e o f urban employment and unemployment, t h e s t a t e o f r u r a l employment and unemployment, u r b a n - r u r a l income d i f f e r e n t i a l , t h e ' s t a t e o f urban a m e n i t i e s , and t h e q u a n t i t y and q u a l i t y o f u r b a n - r u r a l i n f o r m a t i o n f l o w s . A t t e m p t s w i l l be made t o r e f l e c t as much o f t h e p r o c e s s e s d e s c r i b e d as. p o s s i b l e i n t h e model o f RUM. 2.1.3 Causes of. R u r a l - U r b a n M i g r a t i o n '.-'.../ Most o f t h e l i t e r a t u r e on RUM i n A f r i c a , as ind e e d e l s e w h e r e i n t h e w o r l d , a r e i n r e m a r k a b l e agreement t h a t t h e b a s i c c a u s e o f RUM ( n o t i n c l u d i n g f o r c e d m i g r a t i o n ) i s economic ( G u g l e r , 1969; Thomas, 1970; McDonald, 1971). A p o t e n t i a l m i g r a n t n o r m a l l y d e c i d e s t o l e a v e h i s r u r a l base when he p e r c e i v e s t h e p o s s i b i l i t i e s o f i m p r o v i n g upon h i s w e l l - b e i n g i n an urban a r e a . He i s a l w a y s e v a l u a t i n g t h e r u r a l - u r b a n b a l a n c e o f o p p o r t u n i t i e s t o f i n d a b a s i s f o r t a k i n g a d e c i s i o n one way o r t h e o t h e r . In t h e A f r i c a n e n v i r o n m e n t t o d a y t h a t b a l a n c e i s o v e r w h e l m i n g l y i n f a v o u r o f t h e urb a n . The f o r e g o i n g p a r a g r a p h was not i n t e n d e d t o g i v e t h e i m p r e s s i o n t h a t t h e economic a x i s i s t h e o n l y one a l o n g which t h e d e c i s i o n t o m i g r a t e o p e r a t e s . M i t c h e l l (1959) p o i n t e d o u t how e a s i l y r u r a l - u r b a n m i g r a t i o n c o u l d become p a r t o f t h e n o r m a t i v e s t r u c t u r e o f a r u r a l community. The a c t o f m i g r a t i n g becomes p a r t o f t h e r o l e o f b e i n g ' y o u n g , u n m a r r i e d and 1 e d u c a t e d , even f o r t h o s e who have no a p p a r e n t economic m o t i v e f o r m i g r a - t i n g , i' O t h e r r e s e a r c h e s p o i n t o u t t h e i m p o r t a n c e w h i c h m i g r a n t s a t t a c h t o t h e o p p o r t u n i t y o f e s c a p i n g t h e s e t s o c i a l s t r u c t u r e o f t h e r u r a l community a c o n d i t i o n t h a t i s a l m o s t a l w a y s f r u s t r a t i n g t o t h e a m b i t i o u s and t h e u n d e r p r i v i l e g e d . To such m i g r a n t s t h e urban e n v i r o n m e n t o f f e r s r e l a t i v e freedom and opens new doors f o r p e r s o n a l b e t t e r m e n t ( B a n t o n , 1957). However i t i s o f t e n v e r y hard t o draw a c l e a r d i s t i n c t i o n between economic and non-economic c a u s e s o f RUM. C o n s i d e r t h e c a s e o f a y o u t h f r e s h from s c h o o l , w i t h w e l l - t o - d o p a r e n t s who have c o n s i d e r a b l e l a n d f o r d i f f e r e n t p u r p o s e s . T h i s y o u t h d e p a r t s f o r an urban a r e a , remains j o b l e s s f o r some r i m e , say a c o u p l e o f y e a r s , d u r i n g w h i c h t i m e he p a r t l y l i v e s on r e m i t t a n c e s from h i s p a r e n t s back home. E v e n t u a l l y he o b t a i n s a j o b as a c l e r k i n a.Government agency. Was h i s d e c i s i o n t o m i g r a t e economic o r s o c i o - p s y c h o l o g i c a I i n n a t u r e ? P r i m a f a c i e , t h e d e c i s i o n would appear t o be more s o c i o - p s y c h o l o g i c a I t h a n economic as t h e move was, t o him and h i s f a m i l y , s o c i a l l y d e s i r a b l e as a l o g i c a l e x t e n s i o n o f t h e s t u d e n t . r o l e . On t h e o t h e r hand, i t can be argue d w i t h c o n s i d e r a b l e f o r c e t h a t t h e d e c i s i o n t o move was based, not on Current e x p e c t e d wage o f a c l e r k , but on an o p t i m i s t i c f u t u r e f l o w o f incomes as he r i s e s from t h e p o s i t i o n o f a c l e r k . So what weighed h e a v i l y i n t h e mind o f t h e youth was n o t n e c e s s a r i l y t h e p r e s e n t s t a t e o f a f f a i r s but e x p e c t e d f u t u r e economic a d v a n t a g e s . G u g l e r (1969) i n s u m m a r i z i n g t h e s i t u a t i o n f o r Sub-Sahara A f r i c a o b s e r v e d t h a t economic f a c t o r s have been t h e major c a u s e o f l a b o u r m i g r a - t i o n and t h a t t h e y l a r g e l y d e t e r m i n e i t s r a t e . But w h i l e t h e r e i s g e n e r a l agreement about t h e predominance o f economic f o r c e s i n t h e d e c i s i o n t o . \ - 1 8 - I i I j m i g r a t e , the i s o l a t i o n o f t h e r e l e v a n t economic variables i n t h e d e c i s i o n \ p r o c e s s remains a p r o b l e m ( B y e r l e e , 1972). _ \! However, t h e u r b a n - r u r a l income gap i s r e g a r d e d as an i m p o r t a n t v a r i - a b l e . S t u d i e s w h i c h have a t t e m p t e d t o e v a l u a t e u r b a n - r u r a l income d i f f e r e n t i a l s i n t h e t r o p i c a l A f r i c a n e n v i r o n m e n t have g e n e r a l l y t u r n e d up s u b s t a n t i a l , and i n most c a s e s r i s i n g , d i f f e r e n t i a l s , even though t h e s e s t u d i e s o v e r l o o k e d t h e f a c t t h a t many m i g r a n t s e n t e r t h e l o w e r - wage urban s m a l l - s c a l e s e c t o r s and not t h e high-wage modern s e c t o r s used •in t h e s t u d i e s ( L e w i s , 1967; Diejomaoh and O r i m a l a d e l , 1971; Rourke and j ' i S a k y i - G y i n a e , 1972; To d a r o , 1971). A p a r t from u r b a n - r u r a l income d i f f e r e n t i a l , e m p i r i c a l s t u d i e s have • found t h e r a t e o f growth o f n o n - a g r i c u l t u r a l j o b s , t h e r a t e o f unemploy- ment ( J o h n s o n , 1971), and j o b o p p o r t u n i t i e s i n urban a r e a s ( L e e , 1972) t o be s i g n i f i c a n t d e t e r m i n a n t s o f o u t - m i g r a t i o n from a g r i c u l t u r e . 2.1.4 A t t e m p t s a t M o d e l l i n g RUM Three k i n d s o f q u a n t i t a t i v e m o d e l l i n g t e c h n i q u e s have been a p p l i e d t o t h e s t u d y o f RUM i n t r o p i c a l A f r i c a . The f i r s t a r e m u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n m o d e l s ; t h e second a r e m a t h e m a t i c a l ( a n a l y t i c - s o l u t i o n ) m o d e l s ; and t h e t h i r d a r e systems models. M u l t i p l e R e g r e s s i o n Models P r o b a b l y t h e f i r s t a t t e m p t a t q u a n t i t a t i v e m o d e l l i n g o f m i g r a t i o n i n t h i s e n v i r o n m e n t was t h a t by B e a l s , Levy and Moses (1967) i n Ghana. The s t u d y was not s p e c i f i c a l l y d i r e c t e d t o RUM but i n t e r - r e g i o n a l m i g r a t i o n , a major component o f which i s , however, RUM. The a u t h o r s sought t o " e s t i m a t e t h e e f f e c t s o f income and o t h e r v a r i a b l e s on t h e p a t t e r n o f i n t e r - r e g i o n a l l a b o u r m i g r a t i o n i n Ghana" - 19 _ u s i n g a model o f t h e form M../P. = f ( d . ., Y ., Y., P., P., E., £., i J i J i J where M. . number o f m a l e s , age 15-54, born i n r e g i o n i and enumerated i n r e g i o n j ; 1 road d i s t a n c e i n m i l e s between major c i t i e s o f r e g i o n i and r e g i o n j ; Y. a v e r a g e A f r i c a n l a b o u r income i n o r i g i n r e g i o n ; Y. J a v e r a g e A f r i c a n l a b o u r income i n d e s t i n a t i o n r e g i o n ; o i P. = number o f Ghanaian m a l e s , age 1'5-54 born i n o r i g i n r e g i o n ; P. = number o f Ghanaian m a l e s , age 15-54 born i n d e s t i n a t i o n r e g i o n ; E. = p e r c e n t m a l e s , age 15 o r more, enumerated i n o r i g i n r e g i o n , who have a t t e n d e d s c h o o l ; E. = p e r c e n t m a l e s, age 15 o r more, enumerated i n d e s t i n a t i o n ^ r e g i o n who have a t t e n d e d s c h o o l ; U. = p e r c e n t o f p o p u l a t i o n o f o r i g i n r e g i o n r e s i d i n g i n c i t i e s o f 5,000 o r more; U. = p e r c e n t o f p o p u l a t i o n o f d e s t i n a t i o n r e g i o n r e s i d i n g i n c i t i e s . J . o f 5,000 o r more. The r e g r e s s i o n s t u d y shows t h a t r e g i o n a l income d i f f e r e n t i a l s and d i s t a n c e s t r o n g l y a f f e c t i n t e r - r e g i o n a l m i g r a t i o n i n Ghana. A l s o i m p o r t a n t i s t h e degree o f u r b a n i z a t i o n i n e i t h e r t h e r e g i o n o f o r i g i n o r d e s t i n a t i o n , b u t ' e d u c a t i o n does not seem t o a f f e c t i n t e r - r e g i o n a l m i g r a t i o n . The r e g r e s s i o n model r e c o g n i z e s t h e m u l t i p l e n a t u r e o f t h e f o r c e s u n d e r l y i n g t h e o p e r a t i o n o f i n t e r - r e g i o n a l m i g r a t i o n . However, t h e s t r u c - t u r e o f t h e model assumes t h a t t h e d i r e c t i o n o f c a u s a l r e l a t i o n s h i p between t h e dependent v a r i a b l e and an independent v a r i a b l e i s a s i m p l e one, i . e . , ^ Data f o r t h e s t u d y was d e r i v e d from Ghana 1960 Census r e c o r d s . - 20 - t h a t o n l y t h e i ndependent v a r i a b l e e x e r t s an i n f l u e n c e upon t h e dependent v a r i a b l e and n o t t h e o t h e r way a r o u n d . T h i s a s s u m p t i o n i s n o t v a l i d , as i n r e a l i t y , t h e r a t e o f m i g r a t i o n i n t o .or o u t o f a g i v e n a r e a i s bound t o have an i n f l u e n c e on v a r i a b l e s l i k e income, e d u c a t i o n , e t c . , i n t h a t i r e g i o n . A dynamic, f e e d b a c k , model i s most s u i t e d t o h a n d l e such a s i t u a t i o n . A m ajor drawback o f t h e m u l t - i p l e r e g r e s s i o n model i s i t s i n a b i l i t y t o p r e s e n t a s e q u e n t i a l o r d e r o f r e l a t i o n s h i p s , so t h a t v a r i a b l e s t h a t have d i r e c t i n f l u e n c e upon t h e dependent v a r i a b l e a r e s e p a r a t e d from t h o s e t h a t have o n l y i n d i r e c t e f f e c t s . To make t h i s p o i n t c o n c r e t e , l e t us t a k e t h e c a s e o f a m u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n model t h a t gave a h i g h c o e f f i c i e n t o f m u l t i p l e d e t e r m i n a t i o n f o r t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p between r a t e o f i n - m i g r a t i o n t o a c i t y as dependent v a r i a b l e , and number o f h o u s i n g s t a r t s , number o f new j o b s i n t h e i n d u s t r i a l s e c t o r , e t c . , as t h e i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s . A s y stems f o r m u l a t i o n o f t h e same s i t u a t i o n w i l l show how e x p a n s i o n i n t h e b a s i c i n d u s t r i a l s e c t o r c r e a t e s j o b s w h i c h t h e n a t t r a c t i n - m i g r a n t s who make new demands upon t h e h o u s i n g and c o n s t r u c t i o n , i n d u s t r y . So, c r e a t i o n o f new j o b s i n t h e i n d u s t r i a l s e c t o r can be c l e a r l y seen as a d i r e c t c a u se o f i n - m i g r a t i o n and t h a t h o u s i n g s t a r t s i s a t l e a s t i n p a r t a consequence o f i n - m i g r a t i o n . T h i s k i n d o f i n c i s i v e n e s s i s beyond m u l t i p l e - r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s i s . I t i s more a d e q u a t e l y h a n d l e d b y a systems mode I. A n o t h e r drawback o f t h e m u l t i p - l e r e g r e s s i o n a p p r o a c h . i s t h a t v e r y o f t e n t h e model d e a l s w i t h what i n systems language a r e c a l l e d s t o c k v a r i a b l e s ( v a r i a b l e s t h a t d e s c r i b e t h e s t a t e o f t h e s y s t e m a t any p o i n t i n t i m e , such as a v e r a g e income, number o f males born i n o r i g i n and p e r c e n t o f p o p u l a t i o n o f o r i g i n r e g i o n r e s i d i n g i n c i t i e s o f 5,000 o r more). Where i t uses- r a t e v a r i a b l e s ( t h o s e t h a t d e t e r m i n e changes i n t h e s t o c k - 21 - \ v a r i a b l e s ) i t does not e x p l i c i t l y show what r a t e s a f f e c t what l e v e l s , a m a t t e r t h a t i s o f some s i g n i f i c a n c e i n p o l i c y i n t e r v e n t i o n . I. Mabogunje's (1970) s t u d y o f i n t e r - r e g i o n a l m i g r a t i o n i n N i g e r i a uses t h e same g e n e r a l a p p r o a c h as B e a l s e t a l . A l s o R i d e l I (1970) i n - h i s s t u d y o f m i g r a t i o n t o F r e e t o w n , S i e r r a Leone, a d o p t e d a c o m b i n a t i o n o f t h e m u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n and f a c t o r a n a l y t i c a p p r o a c h e s . A n a l y t i c S o l u t i o n Approaches | Three c o n t r i b u t i o n s a r e most r e l e v a n t as f a r as t h e t r o p i c a l A f r i c a n e n v i r o n m e n t i s c o n c e r n e d - Todaro ( 1 9 6 9 ) , H a r r i s and Todaro (1970) and Johnson ( 1 9 7 1 ) . But o n l y t h e l a s t mentioned one w i l l be r e v i e w e d here s i n c e i t i s t h e l a t e s t among t h o s e a d o p t i n g t h e same g e n e r a l a p p r o a c h and c o n t a i n s t h e e s s e n t i a l e l e m e n t s o f i t s p r e d e c e s s o r s . The b a s i c h y p o t h e s i s o f t h e Johnson model, as f o r t h o s e o f Todaro and H a r r i s and T o d a r o , i s t h a t t h e r a t e o f r u r a l t o urban m i g r a t i o n i s a f u n c t i o n o f a) t h e d i f f e r e n c e between e x p e c t e d s t r e a m s o f r u r a l and urban incomes, and - b) t h e p r o b a b i l i t y o f o b t a i n i n g an urban j o b . M o d i f i c a t i o n s i n t r o d u c e d by Johnson a r e o n l y r e f i n e m e n t s o f t h i s b a s i c h y p o t h e s i s . One i s t h a t p a r t o f t h e income o f t h e urban w o r k e r i s s u b j e c t t o s h a r i n g i n an e x t e n d e d - f a m i l y c u l t u r a l s e t - u p , a r e f i n e m e n t t a k e n i n t o a c c o u n t f o r e v a l u a t i n g a) above. The o t h e r i s t h a t urban j o b s a r e f a r from permanent and t h a t t h e r e i s a l a r g e t u r n o v e r i n employment e s p e c i a l l y f o r t h e u n s k i l l e d . T h i s f a c t o r i s t a k e n i n t o a c c o u n t when c a l c u l a t i n g b) above. Two i m p l i c i t a s s u m p t i o n s o f t h e Johnson model need t o be s t a t e d : - 22 - a) There a r e two s e c t o r s : one r u r a l and t h e o t h e r u r b a n . Each s e c t o r i s homogeneous w i t h r e s p e c t t o l a b o u r and income. b) There i s no a g r i c u l t u r a l l a b o u r s u r p l u s i n t h e r u r a l s e c t o r , i . e . , t h e a g r i c u l t u r a l m a r g i n a l p r o d u c t i s a l w a y s p o s i t i v e and i n v e r s e l y r e l a t e d t o t h e s i z e o f r u r a l l a b o u r f o r c e . On t h e b a s i s o f t h e h y p o t h e s i s Johnson p r o c e e d s t o d e v e l o p m a t h e m a t i c a l e q u a t i o n s which can be used t o s o l v e f o r t h e v a r i a b l e ( s ) o f i n t e r e s t . Thus he o b t a i n s t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p : A = (Vu - Va)/Va = nR[<* + (1 -°0(g + ^ ) / ( r ( 1 - n) + gn + iJ>)]-rM/Wa - 1 where: A = t h e p r o p o r t i o n a t e l o n g - r u n e x p e c t e d income a d v a n t a g e o f m i g r a t i n g t o t h e urban s e c t o r v e r s u s r e m a i n i n g i n r u r a l employment; Va = p r e s e n t v a l u e o f e x p e c t e d income i f t h e i n d i v i d u a l remains i n t h e r u r a I s e c t o r ; Vu = p r e s e n t v a l u e o f e x p e c t e d income i f t h e i n d i v i d u a l moves t o t h e urban s e c t o r ; . n = urban employment r a t e ; R = u r b a n - r u r a l r e l a t i v e wage; tt = t h e f r a c t i o n o f employed w o r k e r s ' incomes s u b j e c t t o s h a r i n g ; g = t h e r a t e o f growth o f urban employment; 4> = i n d e x o f l a b o u r t u r n o v e r ; M = m i g r a t i o n c o s t ; Wa = a g r i c u l t u r a l wage, and; ~. r = t h e d i s c o u n t r a t e . The way Johnson p r o c e e d s beyond t h i s p o i n t i s t o assume t h a t A i s a l i n e a r f u n c t i o n o f t h e f r a c t i o n o f r u r a l work f o r c e t h a t m i g r a t e s t o urban a r e a s a t any p o i n t i n t i m e , f. Thus I i i . f = BA | i . . • • ' where: \\ B i s an e m p i r i c a l l y d e t e r m i n e d c o e f f i c i e n t . A number o f c r i t i c i s m s may be l e v e l l e d a g a i n s t t h e m a t h e m a t i c a l ' s o l u t i o n a p p r o a c h t o t h e s t u d y o f r u r a l - u r b a n m i g r a t i o n . 1 F i r s t , t h e n a t u r e o f t h e a p proach i s such t h a t t h e number o f s e c t o r s , t o be t r e a t e d must be k e p t t o an a b s o l u t e minimum. Indeed w i t h t h r e e and more s e c t o r s t h e m a t h e m a t i c a l problems p r e s e n t e d become e x t r e m e l y c o m p l i - c a t e d ( R e y n o l d s , 1969). Thus Johnson was f o r c e d t o Ideal w i t h o n l y two s e c t o r s - r u r a l and urban - each o f which i s homogeneous w i t h r e s p e c t t o l a b o u r and income. However t h e r e a l - w o r l d system i s not t h a t s i m p l e . 'A systems s i m u l a t i o n a p proach o f f e r s a p o s s i b i l i t y o f o v e r c o m i n g t h i s a r t i - f i c i a l c o n s t r a i n t . The a n a l y t i c s o l u t i o n t e c h n i q u e , l i k e t h e m u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n a p p r o a c h , may be e f f e c t i v e i n making p r e d i c t i o n s o f volumes o f m i g r a t i o n o v e r a narrow t i m e span. I t i s not q u i t e s u i t a b l e i n s i t u a t i o n s where t h e i n t e r e s t s i n c l u d e e x p l o r i n g t h e i n t e r a c t i o n s between t h e e l e m e n t s t h a t impinge upon r u r a l - u r b a n m i g r a t i o n , and t h e dynamic b e h a v i o u r o f t h e p r o c e s s . Feedback e f f e c t s , w h i c h a r e s t r o n g i n RUM, p l a y an i m p o r t a n t r o l e i n g e n e r a t i n g dynamic b e h a v i o u r , and.systems s i m u l a t i o n t e c h n i q u e s a p p e a r t o be a more e f f e c t i v e way o f d e a l i n g w i t h s u c h s i t u a t i o n s . However i m p o r t a n t t h e q u e s t i o n o f r u r a l - u r b a n income d i f f e r e n t i a l may be t o t h e d e c i s i o n t o m i g r a t e i t i s r e c o g n i z e d t h a t t h e r e a r e o t h e r k i n d s o f f a c t o r s a t work ( f a c t o r s r e l a t e d t o t h e whole p r o c e s s o f economic development and m o d e r n i z a t i o n , such as e d u c a t i o n , h e a l t h and i t s e f f e c t on p o p u l a t i o n c h a n g e s , e t c . ) . I t a p p e a r s t h a t e x p l i c i t t r e a t m e n t o f t h e s e many f o r c e s t h a t impinge upon t h e p r o c e s s o f r u r a l - u r b a n m i g r a t i o n w i l l - 24 - y i e l d much b e t t e r u n d e r s t a n d i n g and widen t h e p e r s p e c t i v e s f o r p o l i c y i g e n e r a t i o n and p l a n n i n g ^ i i Systems Approach ! P r e s u m a b l y , i t was i n a s p i r i t o f t r y i n g t o g e t away from t h e r e s t r i c - t i o n s o f r e g r e s s i o n and a n a l y t i c s o l u t i o n a p p r o a c h e s t h a t Mabogunje (1970) made a c a s e f o r t h e a p p l i c a t i o n o f t h e systems approach t o t h e s t u d y o f r u r a l - u r b a n m i g r a t i o n , and B y e r l e e (1971) c o n s t r u c t e d a macro-economic s i m u l a t i o n model f o r N i g e r i a . Mabogunje pr o p o s e d a g e n e r a l systems scheme f o r a t h e o r y o f r u r a l - urban m i g r a t i o n composed o f : a) a r u r a l s e c t o r , t h e e l e m e n t s o f w h i c h a r e t h e p o t e n t i a l m i g r a n t , r u r a l c o n t r o l s u b s y s t e m , and r u r a l a d j u s t m e n t mechanisms; b) an urban s e c t o r , t h e e l e m e n t s of which a r e t h e u r b a n i t e , urban c o n t r o l s u b s y s t e m , and t h e urban a d j u s t m e n t mechanism; c ) m i g r a t i o n c h a n n e l s ; • d) f e e d b a c k c h a n n e l s ; and e) an e n v i r o n m e n t o f government p o l i c i e s , economic c o n d i t i o n s , t e c h n o l o g y , e t c . The scheme p r e s e n t e d by Mabogunje i s a v e r y u s e f u l framework f o r o r g a n i z i n g knowledge, s t r u c t u r i n g r e s e a r c h and r a i s i n g s t i m u l a t i n g q u e s t i o n s i n t h e a r e a o f r u r a l - u r b a n m i g r a t i o n . A model can o n l y be j u d g e d on t h e b a s i s o f what i t i s i n t e n d e d t o do, and a p p a r e n t l y , t h e aim o f Mabogunje was t o g e n e r a t e i n t e r e s t i n t h e a p p l i c a t i o n o f t h e systems a p p r o a c h i n t h e s t u d y of r u r a l - u r b a n m i g r a t i o n . The p r e s e n t work i s one r e s p o n s e t o t h i s p l e a . But t h i s work d i f f e r s from Mabogunje's i n two ways. F i r s t , t h e model t o be p r e s e n t e d here i s a t a lower l e v e l o f a b s t r a c t i o n t h a n Mabogunje's. Thus i t i s composed o f s t o c k and r a t e v a r i a b l e s ; and d a t a and a computer program may be d e v e l o p e d f o r i t . S e c o n d l y , t h e p r e s e n t work i s framed i n p o l i c y t e rms and t h e r e f o r e s h o u l d have a g r e a t e r appeal t o p l a n n e r s . B y e r l e e ' s (1971) model i s a macro-economic, c o m p u t e r i z e d s i m u l a t i o n model o f t h e N i g e r i a n economy c o n s i s t i n g o f t h r e e s e c t o r s - l a r g e - s c a l e n o n - a g r i c u l t u r e , s m a l l - s c a l e n o n - a g r i c u l t u r e and a g r i c u l t u r e - and d e s i g n e d t o t e s t t h e a g g r e g a t e impact o f c e r t a i n a g r i c u l t u r a l development p o l i c i e s ( e x p o r t e x p a n s i o n p o l i c y , f o o d e x p a n s i o n p o l i c y , f o o d p r i c e i n f l a t i o n t o reduce r e a l wages, wage r e s t r a i n t p o l i c y , and government h i r i n g program) upon income d i s t r i b u t i o n , employment and m i g r a t i o n . The model i n d i c a t e d t h a t , under a s s u m p t i o n s o f e l a s t i c m i g r a t i o n ( i . e . , m i g r a t i o n b e h a v i o u r which i s s e n s i t i v e t o changes i n r a t i o o f urban t o r u r a l incomes) e x p o r t e x p a n s i o n , f o o d e x p a n s i o n and government h i r i n g p o l i c i e s i n c r e a s e d m i g r a t i o n o u t o f a g r i c u l t u r e , w h i l e f o o d p r i c e i n f l a t i o n and wage r e s t r a i n t had t h e o p p o s i t e e f f e c t . The s i g n i f i c a n c e o f B y e r l e e ' s work l i e s not so much i n t h e p a r t i c u l a r r e s u l t s he o b t a i n e d , but i n t h e f a c t t h a t h i s a p p r o a c h was l o o k i n g a t m i g r a t i o n w i t h i n t h e b r o a d c o n t e x t o f t h e v a r i o u s i n t e r a c t i o n s w i t h i n an e n t i r e economy, t h a t he was l o o k i n g a t a dynamic p i c t u r e o f t h e s i t u a t i o n , and t h a t i t a l l o w e d f o r e x p e r i m e n t a t i o n . T h i s i s o f g r e a t v a l u e i n g e t t i n g a sense o f t h e k i n d o f r e s u l t s t o e x p e c t from, sometimes, c o s t l y p o l i c i e s , b e f o r e e m b a r k i n g on them. The d a t a demands o f systems s i m u l a t i o n models a r e h i g h and because o f s e v e r e d a t a c o n d i t i o n s such models f o r N i g e r i a w i l l o f n e c e s s i t y be c r u d e . T h e i r u s e f u l n e s s w i l l t h e r e f o r e l i e - i n d e v e l o p i n g d a t a , p e r f o r m i n g e x p e r i m e n t s and o r g a n i z i n g e m p i r i c a l r e s e a r c h . - 26 - 2.2 The N i g e r i a n E x p e r i e n c e P r o b l e m s C r e a t e d by R u r a l - U r b a n M i g r a t i o n A g r e a t deal o f c o n c e r n has been e x p r e s s e d , e s p e c i a l l y i n U n i t e d N a t i o n s Agency c i r c l e s ' , about t h e n e g a t i v e consequences o f RUM i n l e s s developed' c o u n t r i e s . N i g e r i a i s no e x c e p t i o n t o t h i s c a t e g o r y o f c o u n t r i e s . Here i t i s t h e i n t e n t i o n t o l o o k a t t h e s e consequences b r o a d l y and w i t h p a r t i c u l a r r e f e r e n c e t o N i g e r i a . There a r e t h r e e . r e I a t e d a r e a s o f c o n c e r n r e g a r d i n g t h e impact o f RUM. F i r s t , t h e r e i s t h e c o n c e r n o v e r t h e e n v i r o n m e n t a l i s s u e o f - o v e r c r o w d i n g w h i c h l e a d s t o t h e d e t e r i o r a t i o n o f t h e urban p h y s i c a l p l a n t and t h e s t r a i n i n g o f urban a d m i n i s t r a t i v e and f i s c a l c a p a c i t y (U.N., 1962; U.N., 1971; Mabogunje, 1968; L a q u i a n , 1971; Mi lone and Green, 1971). S e c o n d l y , and t h i s i s c l o s e l y r e l a t e d t o t h e f i r s t , t h e r e i s t h e b a s i c c o n c e r n o v e r t h e i m p l i c a t i o n s o f RUM f o r t h e broad i s s u e s o f n a t i o n a l e conomic development ( H o s e l i t z , 1957; T o d a r o , 1971; C a l l a w a y , 1963; McGee, 1971). And, t h i r d l y , t h e r e i s t h e c o n c e r n about t h e s o c i o - p o l i t i c a l - i m p l i c a t i o n s o f p r o l o n g e d f r u s t r a t i o n among t h e urban poor ( G u t k i n d , 1969). L e t us e l a b o r a t e a l i t t l e more on t h e i m p l i c a t i o n s o f RUM t o t h e i s s u e o f economic development i n N i g e r i a . As o f now t h e l e v e l o f u r b a n i z - a t i o n may be l e s s t h a n 20$ [See T a b l e 2 ] . T h a t i s t o say t h a t o v e r 80$ of t h e N i g e r i a n p e o p l e s t i l l l i v e i n t h e r u r a l a r e a s . Of t h o s e t h a t a r e urban t h e r e i s a h i g h i n c i d e n c e o f unemployment. "... t h e r e i s e v i d e n c e t o s u g g e s t t h a t unemployment i n Lagos i n 1966 was 4.7$ o f t h e t o t a l Lagos p o p u l a t i o n , 8.6$ o f t h e p o t e n - t i a l l a b o u r f o r c e and 10.4$ o f t h e a c t u a l l a b o u r f o r c e ( i e . , t h e p o t e n t i a l l a b o u r f o r c e l e s s t h o s e i n f u l l - t i m e s c h o o l i n g and t r a i n i n g as w e l l as t h e a g e d ) . One unemployment s u r v e y c o n d u c t e d i n 1963 even r e p o r t e d a v e r a g e unemployment i n t w e n t y - s e v e n towns o f 14$. There i s no doubt t h a t t h i s u n s a t i s f a c t o r y p o s i t i o n has s i n c e worsened g i v e n t h e l a r g e o u t p u t o f p r i m a r y and s e c o n d a r y s c h o o l s s i n c e 1966 and t h e g e n e r a l ' d i s r u p t i o n s c a u s e d by t h e war." (Diejomaoh and O r i m a i a d a , 1971: 134) TABLE 2.1 POPULATION ESTIMATES, TROPICAL AFRICA, 1970 C o u n t r y T o t a 1 P o p u 1 a t i o n ( m i l l i o n s ) Urban P o p u I a t i o n ( m i l l i o n s ) • % Urban TOTAL 242.3 26.2 , I 11 WEST AFRICA 111.9 I 15.8 14 CENTRAL AFRICA 35.5 3.9 11 EAST AFRICA 94.9 6.5 7 WEST AFRICA 111.9 15.8 i i N i q e r i a 66.1 10.1 M Ghana 9.0 1.6 18 Upper V o l t a 5.3 0.2 4 Mai i 5.1 0.4 8 I v o r y C o a s t 4.3 0.8 19 Gu i nea 3.9 0.4 10 Senega 1 3.9 1.1 26 N i g e r 3.8 0.2 5 Dahomey 2.7 0.3 11 S i e r r a Leone 2.6 0.4 13 Togo 1.8 0.2 11 L i b e r i a 1.2 0.2 17 M a u r i t a n i a 1.2 0.02 2 P o r t u g u e s e Guinea .6 0.02 3 Gambia .4 0.03 7 S o u r c e : Demography and S o c i a l S t a t i s t i c s S e c t i o n , Economic Commission f o r A f r i c a ( d a t a from ECA w o r k s h e e t s ) Urban r e f e r s t o s e t t l e m e n t s o f 20,000 o r more. - 28 - A d m i t t e d l y m i g r a t i o n i s t h e mechanism whereby t h e l a b o u r f o r c e o f a c o u n t r y i s a b l e t o d e p l o y i t s e l f a t t h e p o i n t s o f g r e a t e s t a d v a n t a g e . In N i g e r i a what we have i s a s i t u a t i o n i n w h i c h l a b o u r f l o w s o u t o f t h e r u r a l a r e a s , on t h e b a s i s o f r a t i o n a l i n d i v i d u a l c a l c u l a t i o n s , t o c r e a t e c o l l e c t i v e l y a s i t u a t i o n w hich i n p u b l i c w e l f a r e t e r m s i s a g r e a t l o s s t o t h e c o u n t r y ( H a r r i s and T o d a r o , 1970: 135-137). A l e g i t i m a t e q u e s t i o n t o r a i s e h e r e i s how many more i d l e p e o p l e can t h e c o u n t r y a f f o r d t o s u p p o r t ? The c o n c e r n o f t h i s w r i t e r a s f a r as c onsequences o f RUM goes s p r i n g s more from t h i s c o n s i d e r a t i o n t h a n f r o m t h e o t h e r two g e n e r a l a r e a s o f c o n c e r n . Land i s t h e b a s i c r e s o u r c e o f t h e c o u n t r y ; but i t s l a b o u r i s a p p a r e n t l y a b out t o t u r n i t s back t o t h i s b a s i c r e s o u r c e i n i t s s e a r c h f o r some goal which i s as y e t o u t o f r e a c h : m a s s i v e u r b a n - i n d u s t r i a : c omplexes p r o v i d i n g j o b s f o r o v e r 70$ o f t h e l a b o u r f o r c e . The g o a l i s n o t u n a t t a i n a b l e ; but i t i s s t i l l - s o m e way o f f . I t may be p e r i l o u s t o e v e r y o n e f o r t h e c o u n t r y t o t u r n i t s back, a t t h i s s t a g e o f i t s d e v e l o p - ment, t o i t s most e n d u r i n g r e s o u r c e : t h e farm l a n d s . The Economic Commission f o r A f r i c a , ECA, e s t i m a t e s t h e 1970 p o p u l a - t i o n o f N i g e r i a t o be a b out 66 m i l l i o n ( T a b l e 2 . 1 ) , T h i s r a t h e r l a r g e p o p u l a t i o n i s a l s o g r o w i n g a t t h e h i g h a n n u a l r a t e o f 2.8-3 p e r c e n t . T h e r e has t o be some way o f f e e d i n g a l l t h e s e mouths. Whatever t h e s o l u - t i o n , i t w i l l n o t be an easy one. But one d e f i n i t e r e q u i r e m e n t o f t h e s o l u t i o n i s i n n o v a t i v e l a b o u r and t h e a p p l i c a t i o n o f t h i s i n n o v a t i o n t o t h e r e s o u r c e s t h a t i t has o f w h i c h t h e l a n d i s c h i e f . A t t h e moment t h e e f f e c t o f RUM i s t o t r a n s f o r m many i n n o v a t i v e p e o p l e i n t o urban i d l e r s and f a i l u r e s . Those who m i g r a t e become f r u s t r a t e d ; t h o s e who a r e l e f t b e h i n d a r e d e m o r a l - i z e d because t h e b e s t among them have d r i f t e d away. - 29 - Urban c e n t r e s a r e supposed t o be i m p o r t a n t i n t h e p r o c e s s o f economic development as g e n e r a t o r s and t r a n s m i t t e r s o f development i m p u l s e s . Can urban c e n t r e s c o n f ounded by v e r y h i g h r a t e s o f unemployment r e a l l y f u l f i l l t h e s e c r u c i a l r o l e s ? I t i s d o u b t f u l . .Urban Development: A C o l o n i a l Legacy Urban development i n i t s modern form i s e s s e n t i a l l y p a r t o f t h e c o l o n i a l l e g a c y o f N i g e r i a . The p r e c o l o n i a l urban t r a d i t i o n s o f t h e Y o r u b a - s p e a k i n g p e o p l e s o f N i g e r i a and Moslem p a r t s o f N o r t h e r n N i g e r i a a r e w e l l documented (Mabogunje, 1968; L l o y d e t . a I . , 1967). However t h e newer p a t - t e r n s o f c o l o n i a l .and p o s t c o l o n i a l u r b a n i z a t i o n o v e r w h e l m i n g l y dominate t h e •present p i c t u r e . I t i s n o t t h e i n t e n t i o n t o go i n t o any d e t a i I about t h e h i s t o r y o f urban development i n N i g e r i a . S u f f i c e i t t o say t h a t towns grew up i n r e s p o n s e t o t h e needs o f t h e c o l o n i a l power f o r t h e e x p o r t o f p r i m a r y p r o d u c t s , i m p o r t o f m a n u f a c t u r e d goods, and f o r a d m i n i s t r a t i o n . For t h i s r e a s o n t h e urban c e n t r e s t h a t emerged were p o r t s , m i n i n g towns, t r a n s p o r t - a t i o n nodes, a d m i n i s t r a t i v e c e n t r e s , o r c o m b i n a t i o n s o f them. The growth o f t h e s e urban c e n t r e s was s l o w because o f s e v e r a l r e s t r i c t i o n s : t h e y e p i t o m i z e d t h e abode o f t h e c o l o n i a l m a s t e r and t h e masses o f t h e p e o p l e were much more c o m f o r t a b l e i n t h e i r v i l l a g e s t h a n i n t h e urban a r e a s ; t h e c o m m e r c i a l and s e r v i c e o p e r a t i o n s c a r r i e d on i n t h e c e n t r e s needed o n l y a l i m i t e d number o f p e o p l e ; e t c . P o s t - I n d e p e n d e n c e Urban Growth S i n c e t h e end o f t h e Second W o r l d War, e s p e c i a l l y s i n c e t h e a t t a i n m e n t o f p o l i t i c a l independence i n 1960, urban growth has been s u r g i n g f o r w a r d a t an u n p r e c e d e n t e d r a t e . Between 1953 and 1963 t h e Lagos M e t r o p o l i t a n a r e a was g r o w i n g a t a - 30 - r a t e o f 11$ p e r annum (8.6% i n t h e i n n e r c o r e and 19.2$ i n t h e f r i n g e a r e a s ) (Green and Mi l o n e , 1972: 6 ) . T h i s a r e a i s t h e l a r g e s t urban a g g l o m e r a t i o n i n N i g e r i a , c o m b i n i n g t h e c a p i t a l f u n c t i o n w i t h t h e p o r t f u n c t i o n . The second major urban a g g l o m e r a t i o n i s i n N o r t h e r n N i g e r i a and c o n s i s t s o f t h r e e urban c e n t r e s (Kaduna, Z a r i a and Kano). They were g r o w i n g a t a combined r a t e o f 7.6$ p e r annum d u r i n g 1953-63 (Green and Mi l o n e , 1972: 7 ) . A t h i r d urban c o r e ( c o n s i s t i n g o f Enugu, O n i t s h a , P o r t H a r c o u r t and Aba) i s i n S o u t h - E a s t e r n N i g e r i a . The combined r a t e o f growth o f t h e s e urban c e n t r e s i n t h e 1953-63 p e r i o d was 8.2$ p e r annum. There was some e v i d e n c e t o show t h a t t h e s e r a t e s were a c c e l e r a t i n g as t h e s e v e n t i e s a r r i v e d . Green and Mi l o r e ( 1 9 7 2 ) , a p p a r e n t l y r e l y i n g on Mabogunje (1968) saw a t h r e e - t i e r o r g a n i z a t i o n o f urban c e n t r e s i n terms o f r a t e s o f g r o w t h . A t t h e p i n n a c l e o f t h i s h i e r a r c h y i s t h e Lagos M e t r o p o l i t a n a r e a , g r o w i n g a t a r a t e about f o u r t i m e s t h e o v e r a l I r a t e o f growth o f t h e t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n (2.8 - 3$ p e r annum). A t t h e i n t e r m e d i a t e l e v e l a r e t h e urban c o r e a r e a s o f N o r t h e r n N i g e r i a and S o u t h - E a s t e r n N i g e r i a w i t h urban p o p u l a t i o n s e x p a n d i n g a t a r a t e about t h r e e t i m e s t h a t of" t h e n a t i o n a l p o p u l a t i o n . And a t t h e bottom o f t h e h i e r a r c h y ' a r e t h e p r o v i n c i a l c a p i t a l s and l o c a l l y i m p o r t a n t towns. T h e i r p o p u l a t i o n s a r e g r o w i n g a t a r a t e a b o u t t w i c e t h a t o f t h e n a t i o n a l p o p u l a t i o n . Demographers e s t i m a t e t h a t t h e s e phenomenal r a t e s o f growth a r e most I y - a t t r i b u t a b I e t o RUM ( C a l d w e l l and Ok o n j o , 1968). " F o r t h e urban a r e a s i n A f r i c a n c o u n t r i e s d u r i n g 1950-60, t h e c o n t r i b u t i o n t o t h e growth o f t h e p o p u l a t i o n by m i g r a t i o n i s e s t i m a t e d t o be o v e r 60 p e r c e n t , and f o r c i t i e s o v e r 75 p e r c e n t . " ( B r e e s e , 1969: 144) - 31 - . R u r a l - U r b a n P o p u l a t i o n B a l a n c e • 1 • In 1953 t h e p o p u l a t i o n o f N i g e r i a was about 32 m i l l i o n . I t grew t o about 56 m i l l i o n i n 1963 and t o about 66 m i l l i o n i n 1970. Of t h e 66 i m i l l i o n i n 1970 about 15$ was u r b a n , l e a v i n g an o v e r w h e l m i n g 85 p e r c e n t r u r a l ( R o s s e r , 1972). N i g e r i a i s s t i l l b a s i c a l l y r u r a l and f o r a l o n g t i m e t o come t h e r e w i l l be no l a c k o f p e o p l e t o keep up t h e r u r a l - u r b a n m i g r a t i o n s t r e a m s . ' - E d u c a t i o n S e c t o r No d i s c u s s i o n o f t h e i s s u e s r e l a t e d t o RUM i n N i g e r i a would be c o m p l e t e w i t h o u t a r e f e r e n c e t o t h e e v e n t s t h a t have o c c u r r e d i n t h e e d u c a t i o n s y s t e m s i n c e 1960. The Ashby Commission on E d u c a t i o n • w a s s e t up by t h e F e d e r a l Government t o s t u d y t h e needs f o r e d u c a t i o n i n p o s t - i n d e p e n d e n t N i g e r i a and t o make recommendations. The R e p o r t o f t h e Commission appeared i n 1960, j u s t p r i o r t o independence, w i t h recommendations t h a t t h e comm i s s i o n i t s e l f c o n s i d e r e d a m b i t i o u s . "We pr o p o s e a r a t e o f i n v e s t m e n t i n e d u c a t i o n w h i c h f a r o u t s t r i p s the probable growth o f N i g e r i a ' s economy by 1970. We p r o p o s e a l m o s t t o d o u b l e t h e number o f p r i m a r y s c h o o l p u p i l s , a l m o s t t o q u a d r u p l e t h e number o f s t u d e n t s i n s e c o n d a r y s c h o o l s , and t o m u l t i p l y by more t h a n f i v e t h e p r e s e n t number o f u n i v e r s i t y s t u d e n t s i n N i g e r i a n I n s t i t u t i o n s . ( F e d e r a l M i n i s t r y o f E d u c a t i o n , Lagos. 1960) The F e d e r a l Government was more a m b i t i o u s t h a n t h e Commission and a c c e p t e d t h e R e p o r t as a minimum b a s i s f o r b u i l d i n g e d u c a t i o n i n N i g e r i a i n t h e 1960-70 decade. The p e o p l e o f N i g e r i a were even more e n t h u s i a s t i c about e d u c a t i o n t h a n e i t h e r Ashby o r t h e F e d e r a l Government because f o r m a l e d u c a t i o n was p e r c e i v e d as a s u r e avenue (and t o a l a r g e e x t e n t t h e o n l y way) t o a " l i f e more abundant". And t o t h e a v e r a g e s t u d e n t and p a r e n t i n N i g e r i a t h i s l i f e more abundant meant a l o c a l v a r i a t i o n o f N o r t h A merican i m i d d l e - c l a s s , urban based l i f e s t y l e . E s s e n t i a l Iy,;then t h e road t o t h e s c h o o l s a l s o l e d on t o t h e urban a r e a . \ T a b l e 2.2 shows t h e growth o f e n r o l m e n t i n a l l l e v e l s o f e d u c a t i o n a l i n s t i t u t i o n s i n t h e s i x t i e s , w h i l e T a b l e 2.3 r e f l e c t s t h e h i g h p r o p o r t i o n o f p u b l i c e x p e n d i t u r e devoted t o e d u c a t i o n . The p r e s e n t p o l i c y o f t h e F e d e r a l Government i s t o launch a n a t i o n a l f r e e p r i m a r y e d u c a t i o n program i n 1975. I t i s e s t i m a t e d t h a t t h i s program w i l l b o o s t p r i m a r y s c h o o l e n r o l m e n t from below 4 m i l l i o n t o d a y t o 19 m i l l i o n i|n .the n e x t t e n y e a r s ! ( W e s t - A f r i c a , March 25, 1974). T h e r e a r e two p o i n t s r e l a t i n g t o t h e e d u c a t i o n s e c t o r t h a t need t o be made: t h e s y s t e m was e s s e n t i a l l y s i n g l e - t r a c k , academic and o r i e n t e d t o • w h i t e - c o l - l a r j o b s i n t h e s m a l l modern economic s e c t o r ; t h e modern economic s e c t o r was not g r o w i n g f a s t enough t o t a k e up t h e o u t p u t o f t h e e d u c a t i o n s y s t e m . The s l a c k r e p r e s e n t s a m a j o r p r o b l e m o f N i g e r i a t o d a y : s c h o o l - g r a d u a t e unemp loyment'. The R u r a I - A g r i c u l t u r a l S e c t o r W i t h some 80$ o f t h e p o p u l a t i o n o f N i g e r i a s t i l l l i v i n g i n t h e r u r a l a r e a , t h e c o u n t r y i s p r e d o m i n a n t l y a g r i c u l t u r a l . Up u n t i l t h e s i x t i e s , whep p e t r o l e u m became p r o m i n e n t , a g r i c u l t u r e p r o v i d e d t h e e n g i n e o f growth o f t h e economy. Today i t i s s t i l l v i t a l t o t h e l i f e o f N i g e r i a i f o n l y because t h a t i s what s u p p o r t s a m a j o r i t y o f t h e p e o p l e . Each major p a r t o f N i g e r i a i s n o t e d f o r some e x p o r t c r o p s (cocoa i n Western N i g e r i a ; palm produce i n E a s t e r n N i g e r i a ; c o t t o n and p e a n u t s i n N o r t h e r n N i g e r i a ; r u b b e r i n Mid-Western N i g e r i a ) ; but i t i s f a i r t o say t h a t p l a n t a t i o n a g r i c u l t u r e i s not s i g n i f i c a n t i n N i g e r i a . In a d d i t i o n t o e x p o r t c r o p s , s u b s i s t e n c e c r o p p r o d u c t i o n i s a l s o i m p o r t a n t . S m a l l - s c a l e , TABLE 2 . 2 GROWTH OF EDUCATION IN NIGERIA C1962y68) (Annual E n r o l m e n t s ) L e v e l o f E d u c a t i o n Y e a r % Change 1962 1966 1968 i yoz p o P r i m a r y 2,800,000 3,000,000 3,100,000 10.7 Secondary 195,000 210,000 215,000 10.3 T e c h n i c a l & V o c a t i o n a 1 6,000 10,000 12,000 100.0 U n i v e r s i t y 3,600 - 8,600* 138.8 S o u r c e : The F e d e r a l Government o f N i g e r i a . Second N a t i o n a l | Development P l a n 1970-74, pp. 235-236. Not i n c l u d i n g t h e U n i v e r s i t y o f N i g e r i a w h i c h was not o p e r a t i n g a t t h i s t i m e . \ - 34 -J TABLE 2.3 PLANNED PUBLIC EXPENDITURE ON EDUCATION 1970-74 (PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL PUBLIC EXPENDITURE) Government % E x p e n d i t u r e AI I Governments 13.5 •Federal Government 8.8 A l 1 S t a t e G o v ' t s . 19.1 Western 28.7 N o r t h - W e s t e r n 24.6 N o r t h - C e n t r a 1 24.3 Benue-P1ateau 19.8 Mi d-Western 17.6 R i v e r s 16.4 E a s t - C e n t r a l 15.7 Kano 15.6 S o u t h - E a s t e r n 14.2 Lagos 14.0 N o r t h - E a s t e r n 12.3 Kwara 11.4 S o u r c e : The F e d e r a l Gov't, o f N i g e r i a . Second N a t i o n a l Development P l a n 1970-74, pp. 274. s u b s i s t e n c e - c u m - e x p o r t c r o p f a r m i n g on s m a l l , u s u a l l y s c a t t e r e d , h o l d i n g s i s t h e dominant form o f a g r i c u l t u r e . \\ T h i s form o f a g r i c u l t u r e has s u s t a i n e d t h e c o u n t r y a l l a l o n g and, i n t h e f a c e o f f a i l u r e s o f s e v e r a l g o v e r n m e n t - s p o n s o r e d , l a r g e - s c a l e f a r m i n g p r o j e c t s , t h e r e a r e some who t h i n k t h a t i t i s p r o b a b l y t h e o n l y way t o a b s o r b t h e tremendous amounts o f l a b o u r t h e c o u n t r y ' i s g e n e r a t i n g ( E i c h e r and L i e d h o l m , 1970). One f a c t about, t h e a g r i c u l t u r a l scene i s t h a t f o r a g r e a t m a j o r i t y o f t h e f a r m e r s t h e r e t u r n s f o r t h e i r e f f o r t s a r e no"| v e r y much. The i l i t t l e t h e y g e t t h e y m o s t l y d i v i d e between c u r r e n t c o n s u m p t i o n and e d u c a - t i o n o f t h e c h i l d r e n i n t h e hope t h a t s u c h c h i l d r e n w i l l not r e t u r n t o .the l a n d . So a p a r e n t w i l l frown upon a s u g g e s t i o n t h a t t h e son he had put t h r o u g h s c h o o l s h o u l d s t a y w i t h him on t h e land under t h e p r e s e n t t e r m s . The Urban S e c t o r The urban s e c t o r can be lo o k e d a t i n terms o f t h r e e s u b - s e c t o r s : a modern s e c t o r ; a t r a d i t i o n a l , l a r g e l y s m a l l - s c a l e s e c t o r ; and t h e unemployed p o o l . The modern s e c t o r c o n s i s t s o f t h e government s e r v i c e s , l a r g e - s c a l e i n d u s t r i e s , l a r g e - s c a l e c o m m e r c i a l , i n c l u d i n g b a n k i n g and i n s u r a n c e . T h i s s e c t o r i s s m a l l , a c c o u n t i n g f o r l e s s t h a n \0% o f t h e urban l a b o u r f o r c e , and has been g r o w i n g a t no more t h a n 3% p e r annum ( E i c h e r , e t a l , 1970). Wages i n t h i s s e c t o r a r e o f t e n many t i m e s h i g h e r t h a n i n t h e s m a l l - s c a l e s e c t o r and a r e f i x e d n o t by market f o r c e s but i n s t i t u t i o n a l l y . The s m a l l - s c a l e , t r a d i t i o n a l s e c t o r c o n s i s t s o f a l l g r a d a t i o n s o f p e t t y t r a d i n g , c r a f t s , and personal s e r v i c e . Most a r e one-man o p e r a t i o n s and c o m p e t i t i o n i s a c u t e . Wages here a r e d i c t a t e d by market f o r c e s , and a r e much lower t h a n i n t h e modern s e c t o r . The s i z e o f t h i s s e c t o r may be about 60$ o f t h e urban l a b o u r f o r c e ( F r a n k , 1971). I T h i s i s g r o w i n g f a s t as more and more p e o p l e j o i n t h e urban l a b o u r force,, b u t some i n i t i a l • \ c a p i t a l i s needed i n o r d e r t o break i n t o a s p e c t s o f i t ( p e t t y t r a d i n g , f o r i n s t a n c e ) . The unemployed p o o l , made up o f t h e h a r d c o r e unemployed and r e c e n t m i g r a n t s c o m p l e t e d t h e p i c t u r e . The s i z e o f t h i s pool may be as g r e a t as 10-20$ o f t h e urban l a b o u r f o r c e and i n c r e a s i n g (Diejomaoh and O r i m a l a d e , 1971; F a l a e , 1971). I CHAPTER- 3 j I GENERAL SYSTEMS THEORY T h i s c h a p t e r c o n t a i n s two p a r t s . One r e v i e w s t h o s e a s p e c t s o f • G e n e r a l Systems Theory t h a t a r e c o n s i d e r e d germane t o t h e s t u d y , o f RUM. The o t h e r t r i e s t o show how t h e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f RUM j u s t i f y t h e a p p l i - c a t i o n o f t h e systems a p p r o a c h i n s t u d y i n g i t . 3.1 R e l e v a n t L i t e r a t u r e Review System "... 'systems'-, i . e . complexes o f e l e m e n t s s t a n d i n g i n i n t e r a c t i o n " ( B e r t a l a n f f y , 1968: 3 3 ) . A number o f d e f i n i t i o n s o f t h e t e r m s y s t e m e x i s t s i n t h e l i t e r a t u r e , and t h e one quoted above, c r e d i t e d t o an o u t s t a n d i n g name i n G e n e r a l Systems T h e o r y , von B e r t a l a n f f y , i s but one o f them. We can e l a b o r a t e here by way o f u n d e r s c o r i n g t h e e s s e n t i a l i n g r e d i e n t s o f a s y s t e m . F i r s t a s y s t e m must c o n t a i n a number o f p a r t s , e l e m e n t s o r components.' S e c o n d l y t h e r e must be i n t e r r e l a t i o n s h i p s between t h e e l e m e n t s b i n d i n g them i n t o a "whole". The t o t a l i t y o f t h e s e r e l a t i o n s h i p s g i v e s t h e s y s t e m , as a w h o l e , i t s c h a r a c t e r i s t i c b e h a v i o u r ; a b e h a v i o u r which i s d i s t i n c t f r o m t h a t o f any one o f t h e s u b s e t s o f t h e system's e l e m e n t s . The p a r t i c u l a r n a t u r e o f system e l e m e n t s - p h y s i c a l , b i o l o g i c a l , s o c i o - e c o n o m i c , m a t e r i a l , n o n - m a t e r i a l - i s i n c o n s e q u e n t i a l as long as t h e e l e m e n t s p o s s e s s what have been d e s c r i b e d above as t h e e s s e n t i a l i n g r e d i e n t s o r p r o p e r t i e s . The e x i s t e n c e o f - g e n e r a l s y s t e m p r o p e r t i e s o r is o m o r p h i s m , i r r e s p e c t i v e o f t h e s u b j e c t m a t t e r o r d i s c i p l i n e i n v o l v e d , has - 38 - l e d t o t h e development, o f a new d i s c i p l i n e , G e n e r a l Systems T h e o r y , which i s c o n c e r n e d w i t h t h e f o r m u l a t i o n and d e r i v a t i o n of. p r i n c i p l e s v a l i d f o r a l l s y s tems i n g e n e r a l . A g r e a t many s c h o l a r s from a wide s p e c t r u m o f d i s c i p l i n e s have become i n v o l v e d i n the- i n v e s t i g a t i o n o f t h e p o s s i b i l i t i e s and a p p l i c a t i o n s o f t h e c o n c e p t o f systems as a new paradigm. "An e x t r e m e l y u s e f u l and perhaps r e v o l u t i o n a r y i d e a t h a t has emerged from modern n a t u r a l s c i e n c e s and i s g r a d u a l l y p e r v a d i n g t h e s o c i a l s c i e n c e s i s t h e c o n c e p t o f " s y s t e m s " . Indeed, t h e "systems a p p r o a c h " t o p r o b l e m d e f i n i t i o n and s o l u t i o n may w e l l c u l m i n a t e i n t h e r e v e r s a l o f t h e h i s t o r i c t r e n d t o w a r d s s p e c i a l i z a t i o n and i s o l a t i o n o f academic d i s c i p l i n e s t o t h e i r c o n v e r g e n c e i n a number o f i n t e r d i s c i p l i n a r y f i e l d s o f i n v e s t i g a t i o n . ( D a v i s and Rees, 1974: 1) Open and C l o s e d Systems T h e r e i s no agreement i n t h e l i t e r a t u r e about t h e use o f t h e t e r m s "open s y s t e m " and " c l o s e d s y s t e m " . However t h e approach a d o p t e d here i s t h a t c r e d i t e d t o von B e r t a l a n f f y . A c l o s e d s y s t e m i s one w h i c h i s s e l f - c o n t a i n e d . I t has no exchange o f e i t h e r m a t t e r o r energy w i t h t h e e n v i r o n m e n t e x t e r n a l t o i t . T h e r e f o r e i t does not a f f e c t , n or i s i t a f f e c t e d by, t h a t e n v i r o n m e n t . Such systems a r e n o t common i n n a t u r e because v e r y few t h i n g s r e a l l y e x i s t i n i s o l a t i o n . Open s y s t e m s , on t h e o t h e r hand, a r e t h o s e t h a t exchange m a t t e r , e n e r g y o r i n f o r m a t i o n w i t h t h e i r e x t e r n a l e n v i r o n m e n t s . In t h e c o u r s e o f such exchanges a sys t e m and i t s e n v i r o n m e n t m u t u a l l y a f f e c t t h e m s e l v e s . G i v e n t h e h i e r a r c h i c a l o r d e r i n n a t u r e where a sys t e m i s composed o f s e v e r a l s u b - s y s t e m s , and i s i t s e l f a su b - s y s t e m o f a l a r g e r s y s t e m , i t i s p e r h a p s n o t s u r p r i s i n g t h a t most systems i n n a t u r e a r e o f t h e open v a r i e t y . The p o i n t t h a t b e a r s r e p e a t i n g w i t h r e s p e c t t o open systems i s t h a t t h e y i n t e r a c t w i t h t h e i r e n v i r o n m e n t s and a r e a f f e c t e d by them. - 3 9 \ \ A d a p t i v e B e h a v i o u r , Feedback and E q u i l i b r i u m j •I "... and you c a n n o t c o n c e i v e o f a l i v i n g o r g a n i s m , not t o speak o f b e h a v i o u r and human s o c i e t y , w i t h o u t t a k i n g ' i n t o a c c o u n t what v a r i o u s l y and r a t h e r l o o s e l y i s c a l l e d a d a p t i v e n e s s , p u r p o s i v e n e s s , g o a l - s e e k i n g and t h e l i k e . " (von B e r t a l a n f f y , 1968: 45) An a e r o p l a n e i s a sys t e m b u i l t t o f l y ; a r e f i n e r y i s a sys t e m c o n s t r u c t e d f o r t h e p u r p o s e o f making g a s o l i n e o u t o f c r u d e o i l ; a human body i s a • system t h a t works t o w a r d s i t s own s e I f - m a i n t e n a n c e ; a community i s a sys t e m c r e a t e d f o r p r o m o t i n g c o l l e c t i v e i n t e r e s t s . Most complex systems o p e r a t e iin o r d e r t o p e r f o r m some f u n c t i o n o r a c h i e v e some g o a l , and t h e s t r u c t u r e s o f such s y s t e m s , and t h e i n t e r r e l a t i o n s h i p s between sy s t e m -elements, a r e keyed t o t h e s p e c i a l needs o f p e r f o r m i n g t h e s p e c i f i c f u n c - t i o n s o r a c h i e v i n g t h e s p e c i f i c g o a l s c o n c e r n e d ( P a r s e g i a n , 1972: 2 2 ) . -There e x i s t s a s u b s e t o f complex systems t h a t do not o n l y have a " g o a l " but a r e c a p a b l e o f a d a p t i v e b e h a v i o u r , t h a t i s t o s a y , such systems respond t o changes i n t h e i r i n t e r n a l and e x t e r n a l c o n d i t i o n i n a manner t h a t a l l o w s them t o c o n t i n u e t o w a r d s t h e i r g o a l s . A fundamental c o n c e p t i n t h e u n d e r s t a n d i n g o f a d a p t i v e b e h a v i o u r i s t h a t o f f e e d b a c k . "So a g r e a t v a r i e t y o f systems i n t e c h n o l o g y and i n . l i v i n g n a t u r e f o l l o w t h e f e e d b a c k scheme, and i t i s we l l - k n o w n t h a t a new d i s c i p l i n e , c a l l e d C y b e r n e t i c s , was i n t r o d u c e d by. ' N o r b e r t Wiener t o d e a l w i t h t h e s e phenomena." (von B e r t a l a n f f y , 1968: 44) Feedback e x i s t s i n a sys t e m when t h e c h a i n o f cause and e f f e c t r e l a t i o n s h i p s l o o p s back upon i t s e l f . Two k i n d s o f f e e d b a c k l o o p s a r e r e c o g n i z e d i n systems l i t e r a t u r e : p o s i t i v e a n d . n e g a t i v e . A p o s i t i v e f e e d b a c k loop a l w a y s o p e r a t e s t o i n c r e a s e t h e c o r r e s p o n d i n g l e v e l i n t h e sy s t e m . I t i s t h e r e f o r e i n t e r n a l l y s e I f - a m p I i f y i n g and r e s u l t s i n e x p o n e n t i a l g r o wth. The i d e a o f p o s i t i v e f e e d b a c k i s v i v i d l y - 4 0 - i i l l u s t r a t e d by t h a t o f money d e p o s i t e d in- a bank a t compound i n t e r e s t . Each y e a r t h e p r i n c i p a l i s augmented and r a i s e d t o i a h i g h e r l e v e l , w hich w i l l y i e l d a g r e a t e r a b s o l u t e i n t e r e s t payment t o i n c r e a s e t h e p r i n c i p a l j s t i l l f u r t h e r , and so on, I f t h e d e p o s i t i s not w i t h d r a w n , t h e d e p o s i t w i l l grow a t an e v e r - i n c r e a s i n g a b s o l u t e r a t e , i . e . , e x p o n e n t i a l l y . N e g a t i v e f e e d b a c k l o o p s o p e r a t e i n a manner t o oppose t h e d i r e c t i o n o f t h e change t h a t produced i t . I t i s t h u s g r o w t h - c o u n t e r a c t i n g . I f , w i t h r e f e r e n c e t o t h e p r e v i o u s i l l u s t r a t i o n , t h e d e p o s i t o r w i t h d r a w s a f i x e d sum o f money from t h e d e p o s i t each y e a r , t h e e f f e c t i s t o d e p r e s s t h e p r i n c i p a l and t h e a b s o l u t e r a t e i t r e g e n e r a t e s i t s e l f . To m a i n t a i n t h e p r i n c i p a l a t t h e same l e v e l each y e a r both p o s i t i v e and n e g a t i v e f e e d b a c k l o o p s a r e n e c e s s a r y . T h i s means t h a t t h e " e x i s t e n c e o f t h e n e g a t i v e f e e d b a c k loop i s a n e c e s s a r y but not a s u f f i c i e n t c o n d i t i o n f o r s t a b i l i t y " ( D a v i s and Rees, 1974: 6 ) . Most complex systems c o n t a i n both p o s i t i v e and n e g a t i v e f e e d b a c k l o o p s as means o f m a i n t a i n i n g t h e i r r e l a t i o n s h i p s t o t h e i r e n v i r o n m e n t s , c a r r y i n g o u t t h e i r f u n c t i o n s o r m a i n t a i n i n g s t a b i l i t y . A s y s t e m c o n t a i n i n g o n l y p o s i t i v e o r n e g a t i v e f e e d b a c k l o o p s moves t o w a r d s a s t a t e o f maximum d i s o r d e r o r s e l f - d e s t r u c t i o n . To i l l u s t r a t e , assume an animal p o p u l a t i o n w i t h l i m i t e d r e s o u r c e s t o l i v e on. Assume f u r t h e r t h a t m o r t a I i t y w h i c h o p e r a t e s as a n e g a t i v e f e e d b a c k loop i s n o n - e x i s t e n t . The p o p u l a t i o n w i l l grow e x p o n e n t i a l l y , and, even i f g i v e n t h e e f f e c t o f t e c h n o l o g y upon r e s o u r c e s , i t i s d i f f i c u l t t o c o n c e i v e o f i n f i n i t e growth and s u r v i v a l f o r i t ; t h e r e has t o be a p o i n t o f no r e t u r n , o f s e l f - d e s t r u c t i o n . C o n v e r s e l y a p o p u l a t i o n t h a t has o n l y t h e n e g a t i v e f e e d b a c k p r o c e s s o f m o r t a l i t y and no n a t a l i t y wi I I s o o n e r o r l a t e r , c e a s e t o e x j s t . Feedback l o o p s a r e not o n l y r e s p o n s i b l e f o r m a i n t a i n i n g s t a b i l i t y i n a s y s t e m ; t h e y a r e a l s o r e s p o n s i b l e f o r g i v i n g a s y s t e m i t s c h a r a c t e r i s t i c - 41 - b e h a v i o u r . And so a major t a s k i n t h e a n a l y s e s o f complex systems i s t h e i d e n t i f i c a t i o n o f f e e d b a c k l o o p s . The c o n c e p t o f s t a b i l i t y i s empty w i t h o u t r e f e r e n c e t o a n o t h e r c o n c e p t : e q u i l i b r i u m . The s t a t e o f e q u i l i b r i u m can be c o n c e p t u a l i z e d as t h e g o a l o r f i n a l s t a t e w h i c h t h e s y s t e m o p e r a t e s t o a c h i e v e . Two k i n d s o f s y s t e m e q u i l i b r i u m may be i d e n t i f i e d : s t a b l e o r s t e a d y s t a t e , and u n s t a b l e o r dynamic e q u i l i b r i u m . A s t e a d y s t a t e i s a " t i m e - i n d e p e n d e n t s t a t e where t h e s y s t e m remains c o n s t a n t as a w h o l e , and i n i t s p h a s e s , though t h e r e i s a c o n t i n u o u s f l o w o f t h e component m a t e r i a l s " (von B e r t a l a n f f y , i n Emery, 1969: 7 1 ) . On t h e o t h e r hand dynamic e q u i I i b r i u r n i s t h e u n s t a b l e s t a t e w h i c h i s bound t o g i v e way t o a s u c c e s s i o n o f o t h e r u n s t a b l e s t a t e s as t h e s y s t e m a t t e m p t s t o a b s o r b i n t e r n a l and e x t e r n a l p e r t u r b a t i o n s . The i d e a o f ' dynamic e q u i l i b r i u m i s more a p p r o p r i a t e i n d e a l i n g w i t h s o c i o - e c o n o m i c s y s t e m s t h a n t h a t o f s t e a d y s t a t e , s i n c e such systems a r e g e n e r a l l y open s y s t e m s t h a t a r e s u b j e c t t o c o n s i d e r a b l e p e r t u r b a t i o n s from t h e i r e n v i r o n m e n t s . H i e r a r c h y i n Open Systems The n a t u r e o f open systems i s such t h a t a g i v e n s y s t e m , A, i s composed o f a number o f s u b s y s t e m s , B. ( i = 1, 2, 3, . . . ) , and i s i t s e l f a s u b s y s t e m o f t h e n e x t l a r g e r s y s t e m , C. T h e o r e t i c a l l y the environment of A t h e r e f o r e extends t o the o u t e r reaches o f t h e u n i v e r s e ( P a r s e g i a n , 1972: 2 3 ) . A l o g i c a l q u e s t i o n t h a t a r i s e s here i s how t o d e f i n e t h e boundary o f t h e s y s t e m o f i n t e r e s t s i n c e , as shown above, e v e r y t h i n g seems t o be r e l a t e d t o e v e r y t h i n g e l s e ? "The answer i s t h a t w h i l e i t i s not p o s s i b l e t o t a k e i n t o a c c o u n t every, i n f l u e n c e o r i n t e r r e l a t i o n s h i p t h a t b e a r s on a p a r t i c u l a r s i t u a t i o n o r s u b s y s t e m , one can o f t e n i d e n t i f y t h e - 4 2 - s l g n i f i c a n t f a c t o r s t h a t bear on a s i t u a t i o n and l i m i t t h e s t u d y t o t h o s e f a c t o r s ( P a r s e g i a n , 1972: 2 5 ) . The above i s an a p p e a l t o t h e judgement and i n t u i t i v e power o f t h e i n v e s t i g a t o r , and a number o f imp I i c a t i o n s ' f l o w from t h i s . F i r s t , t h e r e i s no p o s s i b i l i t y o f g e t t i n g t h e same model o f a phenom- enon from two d i f f e r e n t i n v e s t i g a t o r s s i n c e t h e i r d e f i n i t i o n s o f t h e system w i l l not be i d e n t i c a l . S e c o n d l y t h e r e can be no c o m p l e t e l y c o r r e c t o r i n c o r r e c t model o f a s y s t e m . T h i r d l y , t h e n a t u r e o f t h e model produced f o r a s y s t e m depends t o a g r e a t e x t e n t upon t h e m o t i v e s o f t h e m o d e l l e r , i . e . , t h e p u r p o s e t h e model w i l l s e r v e . C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f Complex Systems Some o f t h e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f complex systems which may be o f i n t e r e s t "in t h e l a t t e r p a r t s o f t h i s work have been most e l o q u e n t l y summarized by G o l d b e r g and Hoi I i n g (1970: 3 ) . ' . " F o u r p r o p e r t i e s seem t o be s h a r e d by a l l complex s y s t e m s . By r e s p o n d i n g not j u s t t o p r e s e n t e v e n t s but t o p a s t ones as w e l l t h e y show a h i s t o r i caI qua I i t y . By r e s p o n d i n g t o e v e n t s a t more t h a n one p o i n t i n space t h e y show a s p a t i a l i n t e r l o c k i n g p r o p e r t y . By encompassing many components w i t h complex f e e d b a c k i n t e r a c t i o n s between them, t h e y show a systems p r o p e r t y . And t h r o u g h t h e common appearance o f l a g s , t h r e s h o l d s , and l i m i t s t h e y p r e s e n t d i s t i n c t i v e s t r u c t u r a l p r o p e r t i e s . The systems p r o p e r t y has been t h e p r e o c c u p a t i o n i n t h i s s e c t i o n so f a r ; but more w i l l be s a i d a b out t h e s p a t i a l i n t e r l o c k i n g and h i s t o r i c a l . q u a l i t i e s o f t h e r u r a l - u r b a n m i g r a t i o n - r e l a t e d s y s t e m i n t h e n e x t s e c t i o n . 3.2 R e l e v a n c e o f Systems Theory t o ' RUM In t h e f i r s t p a r t o f t h i s c h a p t e r two i n g r e d i e n t s were i d e n t i f i e d as e s s e n t i a l t o t h e c o n c e p t o f a s y s t e m : a number o f c o n s t i t u e n t p a r t s o r components; t h e i n t e r r e l a t i o n s h i p s between t h e s e p a r t s . Here an a t t e m p t w i l l be made t o show t h a t RUM s a t i s f i e s t h e c o n d i t i o n s f o r c l a s s i f i c a t i o n as a system. The i m p o r t a n t p o i n t , a b o u t a component i n a s y s t e m i s t h a t i t p o s s e s s e s some c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s t h a t d i s t i n g u i s h i t from o t h e r components, c h a r a c t e r - I ' i s t i c s w h i c h a l s o r e l a t e t o t h e b e h a v i o u r o f t h e system. Two k i n d s o f components can be r e c o g n i z e d i n t h e s y s t e m o f which RUM i s a p a r t . The f i r s t t y p e a r e t h o s e r e p r e s e n t i n g human g r o u p s . Such a group may be e d u c a t e d o r u n e d u c a t e d , employed o r unemployed, l o c a t e d i n a r u r a l o r an urban a r e a . Each o f t h e s e groups behaves i n a d i s t i n c t i v e way and t o g e t h e r t h e y g i v e t h e s y s t e m i t s c h a r a c t e r i s t i c b e h a v i o u r . T h i s c l a s s o f components a r e t h e s t o c k v a r i a b l e s o f C h a p t e r 4. The second t y p e o f components a r e t h o s e t h a t r e p r e s e n t p r o c e s s e s w i t h i n t h e s y s t e m . Thus t h e r e i s t h e e d u c a t i o n p r o c e s s , employment g e n e r a t i o n , l a b o u r t r a n s f o r m a t i o n , u r b a n - r u r a l i n t e r a c t i o n , a n d , o f c o u r s e , t h e m i g r a t i o n p r o c e s s e s . The model t o be p r e s e n t e d i n t h e n e x t c h a p t e r c o n t a i n s a l t o g e t h e r t w e n t y components, e i g h t b e l o n g i n g t o t h e f i r s t c a t e g o r y and t w e l v e t o t h e s e c o n d . The components a r e bound t o g e t h e r i n t o a "whole" by a network o f i n t e r - r e l a t i o n s h i p s t h r o u g h which a component a f f e c t s o t h e r components and i s i n t u r n a f f e c t e d by them. Some o f t h e i n t e r r e l a t i o n s h i p s i n v o l v e t h e t r a n s f e r o f p e o p l e o r o t h e r m a t e r i a l goods; o t h e r s i n v o l v e t h e t r a n s f e r o f non- m a t e r i a l i m p u l s e s such as i n f o r m a t i o n . The i n t e r r e l a t i o n s h i p between t h e -.44 - r u r a l e d u c a t i o n component and r u r a l e d u c a t e d unemployed i n v o l v e s t h e i t r a n s f e r o f s c h o o l g r a d u a t e s from t h e one t o t h e o t h e r . On t h e o t h e r hand one o f t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p s between t h e urban uneducated unemployed and j r u r a l - u r b a n m i g r a t i o n component i n v o l v e s t h e t r a n s f e r o f i n f o r m a t i o n . i The e l a b o r a t i o n o f t h e s e r e l a t i o n s h i p s i s p a r t o f t h e c o n c e r n o f C h a p t e r 4. The p o i n t t o be made here i s t h a t RUM i s p a r t o f a complex system c o n t a i n i n g many components and i n t e r r e l a t i o n s h i p s , and t h a t any r e a l i s t i c e f f o r t t o u n d e r s t a n d i t must t a k e i n t o a c c o u n t not j u s t t h e components i n i s o l a t i o n b u t a l s o t h e i n t e r r e l a t i o n s h i p s w i t h i n t h e whole s y s t e m . I t i s no t f o r a moment b e i n g s u g g e s t e d t h a t t h i s i s an easy t a s k ; t h e s u g g e s t i o n r a t h e r i s t h a t t h e systems a p p r o a c h may be t h e p a t h t o g r e a t e r u n d e r s t a n d - i n g . RUM W i t h i n An Open System The s y s t e m o f which RUM i s a p a r t i s an open one; t h e r e f o r e , t h e r e i s mutual i n t e r a c t i o n between i t and i t s e n v i r o n m e n t . T h e o r e t i c a l l y t h i s e n v i r o n m e n t i n c l u d e s e v e r y t h i n g t h a t does not f a l l w i t h i n t h e boundary o f t h e sy s t e m . But c e r t a i n components w i t h i n t h i s g e n e r a l i z e d e n v i r o n m e n t can be seen t o be more d i r e c t l y r e l a t e d t o t h e sys t e m t h a n o t h e r s . The demographic p r o c e s s i s one i m p o r t a n t element in. t h e e n v i r o n m e n t t h a t g r e a t l y a f f e c t s - t h e RUM system. A co u n t r y , t h a t has a h i g h r a t e o f p o p u l a t i o n growth i s a l s o l i k e l y t o have a more s e r i o u s r u r a l - u r b a n m i g r a t i o n p r o b l e m . Changes i n t h e demographic p r o c e s s c a n n o t but be r e f l e c t e d on t h e r u r a l - u r b a n m i g r a t i o n s i t u a t i o n . Government a c t i v i t i e s and i t s powers t o make p o l i c i e s form a n o t h e r s i g n i f i c a n t component o f t h e e n v i r o n m e n t - p r o b a b l y t h e most s i g n i f i c a n t . O t h e r i n f l u e n t i a l components a r e t h e p r o c e s s o f economic development; t e c h n o l o g i c a l development, e s p e c i a l l y i n t h e f i e l d s o f t r a n s p o r t and - 45 - i i c o m m u n i c a t i o n ; and i n t e r n a t i o n a l r e l a t i o n s . These- components o f t h e \ e n v i r o n m e n t s a r e s p e l t o u t i n g r e a t e r d e t a i l i n S e c t i o n 4.1.7. However, t h e p o i n t has t o be made t h a t t h i s e n v i r o n m e n t i s a dynamic one, and t h a t changes i n i t have d i r e c t i m p l i c a t i o n s f o r RUM. T h e r e f o r e i n s e e k i n g t o u n d e r s t a n d t h e b e h a v i o u r o f t h e RUM s y s t e m , t h i s e n v i r o n m e n t c a n n o t be o v e r l o o k e d . RUM, A d a p t i v e B e h a v i o u r , Feedback and E q u i l i b r i u m '[ The p r e v i o u s p a r t d i s c u s s e d t h e n a t u r e o f a d a p t i v e o r s e l f - r e g u l a t i n g b e h a v i o u r and t h e i m p o r t a n c e o f f e e d b a c k l o o p s i n h e l p i n g t o a c h i e v e a d a p t i v e b e h a v i o u r . A l o g i c a l q u e s t i o n t o r a i s e a t t h i s s t a g e i s whether t h e RUM syst e m can be c o n c e p t u a l i z e d as an a d a p t i v e system. To answer t h i s • q u e s t i o n i t i s n e c e s s a r y t o p o s i t t h a t human n a t u r e i s such t h a t when a p e r s o n i s f a c e d w i t h a c h o i c e between a l t e r n a t i v e s he o p t s f o r t h a t a l t e r n a t i v e which he j u d g e s t o be most l i k e l y t o g i v e him t h e g r e a t e s t n e t b e n e f i t . i f t h e c h o i c e i n q u e s t i o n i s a l o c a t i o n a l one t h e n he w i l l o p t f o r t h a t l o c a t i o n w h i c h he j u d g e s b r i n g s him t h e g r e a t e s t n e t b e n e f i t . RUM i n v o l v e s t h e c h o i c e s o f p e o p l e between r u r a l and urban l i v i n g , and t h e sys t e m has an i d e n t i f i a b l e " g o a l " t o w a r d s which i t i s a l w a y s moving: t o r e d i s t r i b u t e p e o p l e between r u r a l and urban l o c a t i o n s such t h a t a l l r u r a l p e o p l e f e e l t h a t t h e y a r e b e t t e r o f f not moving t o an urban a r e a . Whenever such a s t a t e o f r e d i s t r i b u t i o n i s r e a c h e d , an e q u i I i b r i urn i s a c h i e v e d and RUM c e a s e s i n t h e manner o f a t h e r m o s t a t . T h i s s t a t e o f e q u i l i b r i u m i s o n l y t e m p o r a r y , f o r changes a r e a l w a y s t a k i n g p l a c e both w i t h i n t h e sys t e m and i n i t s e n v i r o n m e n t - changes which make p e o p l e r e - e v a l u a t e t h e i r r e l a t i v e p o s i t i o n s , and s e t RUM i n t o m o t i o n once more. Over t i m e , t h e r e f o r e , one e q u i l i b r i u m c o n d i t i o n g i v e s way t o - 46 - a n o t h e r , and so on t o t h e i n d e f i n i t e f u t u r e . From t h e f o r e g o i n g t h e RUM s y s t e m may be c h a r a c t e r i z e d as a s e l f - r e g u I a t i n q o r a d a p t i ve, complex s y s t e m , t h e " g o a l " o f w h i c h i s t o b r i n g a b out a c e r t a i n d i s t r i b u t i o n o f p o p u l a t i o n between r u r a l and urban a r e a s . * As p o i n t e d o u t i n t h e f i r s t s e c t i o n , one o f t h e more i m p o r t a n t means o f a c h i e v i n g a d a p t i v e b e h a v i o u r i s t h e f e e d b a c k l o o p . There a r e many such lo o p s i n t h e RUM system. T o g e t h e r t h e y work t o c o n t r o l t h e r a t e s a t w h i c h r u r a l - u r b a n m i g r a t i o n p r o c e e d s . However t h e i d e n t i f i c a t i o n o f t h e s p e c i f i c l o o p s must a w a i t t h e n e x t c h a p t e r . C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f Complex Systems and RUM System G o l d b e r g and Hoi l i n g (1970) p o i n t o u t t h a t complex systems a r e c h a r a c t e r i z e d by a systems q u a l i t y , a h i s t o r i c a l q u a l i t y , s p a t i a l i n t e r - l o c k i n g and s t r u c t u r a l p r o p e r t i e s . What has been s a i d so f a r i n t h i s s e c t i o n r e l a t e s t o t h e systems q u a l i t y o f t h e RUM s y s t e m , w h i c h a l s o e x h i b i t s t h e o t h e r p r o p e r t i e s o f a complex s y s t e m . The f o l l o w i n g w i l l t r y t o show t h a t a t l e a s t t h e h i s t o r i c a l and s p a t i a l i n t e r l o c k i n g p r o p e r t i e s a r e i d e n t i f i a b l e i n t h e RUM s y s t e m . One o f t h e components c o n s i d e r e d t o be s i g n i f i c a n t i n t h e d e c i s i o n t o m i g r a t e t o an urban a r e a i s t h e s i z e o f t h e urban unemployed p o o l , because t h i s c e r t a i n l y has a d i r e c t b e a r i n g on t h e p r o b a b i l i t y o f a m i g r a n t t o o b t a i n an urban j o b i n a r e a s o n a b l e t i m e . But t h e p r e s e n t s i z e o f t h e component i s t h e r e s u l t o f p a s t r u r a l - u r b a n m i g r a t i o n s , so t h a t t h e i n f l u e n c e i t e x e r t s t o d a y i s p a r t l y a r e f l e c t i o n o f t h e h i s t o r y o f p a s t m i g r a t i o n s . O t h e r w i s e s t a t e d , what i s g o i n g on i n t h e s y s t e m t o d a y i s not i n d e p e n d e n t o f t h e h i s t o r y o f p r o c e s s e s i n i t . - 47 - The p r o c e s s o f r u r a l - u r b a n m i g r a t i o n i s , among o t h e r t h i n g s , a s p a t i a l . \ one i n v o l v i n g both urban and r u r a l l o c a t i o n s . There may be s e v e r a l urban i and r u r a l l o c a t i o n s i n a p a r t i c u l a r s y s t e m , but t h e i m p o r t a n t p o i n t i s t h a t e v e n t s t h a t o c c u r i n one p a r t o f t h e s p a t i a l s y s t e m do a f f e c t o t h e r p a r t s . The l o c a t i o n o f new i n d u s t r i a l c omplexes i n one o f t h e urban l o c a t i o n s has imp I i c a t i o n s f o r t h e r a t e o f m i g r a t i o n t o t h a t l o c a t i o n and t o o t h e r l o c a t i o n s i n t h e system. T h i s q u a l i t y o f e v e n t s t a k i n g p l a c e i n one l o c a t i o n h a v i n g i m p l i c a t i o n s f o r o t h e r l o c a t i o n s w i t h i n t h e same s p a t i a l s y s t e m i s t h e e s s e n c e o f " t h e s p a t i a l i n t e r l o c k i n g p r o p e r t y " o f syste m s . In summary, t h e phenomenon o f r u r a l - u r b a n m i g r a t i o n has r e c e i v e d a g r e a t d e a l o f a t t e n t i o n from a l l shades o f s o c i a l s c i e n t i s t s . U n f o r t u n - a t e l y t h e r e i s v e r y l i t t l e t o show i n t h e way o f s u c c e s s e s i n d e a l i n g w i t h i t anywhere i n t h e w o r l d . One p l a u s i b l e c o n c l u s i o n t o draw from t h i s i s t h a t t o t r y t o stem r u r a l - u r b a n m i g r a t i o n i s a t t e m p t i n g t h e i m p o s s i b l e . A n o t h e r , e q u a l l y p l a u s i b l e one, i s t h a t we have not y e t been a b l e t o f u l l y u n d e r s t a n d t h e r e a l n a t u r e o f t h e p r o c e s s and t h a t , new t o o l s and new p e r s p e c t i v e s a r e d e s i r a b l e . In t h i s r e g a r d an appeal t o t h e p r i n c i p l e s o f G e n e r a l Systems Theory f o r g r e a t e r i n s i g h t w i l l a p p e a r t o be a p e r f e c t l y l e g i t i m a t e p r o c e d u r e . CHAPTER 4 \ THE SYSTEMS MODEL OF RUM \ 4.1 D e s c r i p t i o n o f t h e B a s i c Model 4.1.1 A s s u m p t i o n s U n d e r l y i n g t h e Model E i g h t a s s u m p t i o n s a r e i s o l a t e d here as most c r u c i a l i n u n d e r s t a n d i n g t h e b a s i c model. 1. The l i t e r a t u r e on r u r a l - u r b a n m i g r a t i o n i n N i g e r i a i s l i m i t e d f o r t h e p u r p o s e s o f t h i s work. The a s s u m p t i o n t h a t c o n d i t i o n s i n o t h e r p a r t s o f t r o p i c a l A f r i c a a p p r o x i m a t e c l o s e l y t h o s e o f N i g e r i a has been made t o make i t p o s s i b l e t o draw from t h e e x p e r i e n c e s o f t h e s e o t h e r c o u n t r i e s i n b u i l d i n g t h e model. 2. The f i r s t - h a n d e x p e r i e n c e o f t h e a u t h o r i s l i m i t e d t o s o u t h - e a s t e r n N i g e r i a . I t has however been assumed t h a t t h i s e x p e r i e n c e i s b r o a d l y r e p r e s e n t a t i v e o f t h e e n t i r e c o u n t r y . 3. R u r a l - u r b a n m i g r a t i o n e x i s t s as p a r t o f a complex s o c i o - e c o n o m i c s y s t e m ; a systems model o f i t i s t h e most e f f e c t i v e t e c h n i q u e f o r c a p t u r i n g t h e m u l t i p l e d i m e n s i o n s o f t h e r e a l - w o r l d s y s t e m . 4. Most r u r a l p e o p l e m i g r a t e t o urban a r e a s b a s i c a l l y f o r economic r e a s o n s , t h e most i m p o r t a n t o f which i s t o o b t a i n wage employment. 5. | The l i t e r a t e o r i l l i t e r a t e s t a t u s o f a r u r a l i t e i s s i g n i f i c a n t i n h i s m i g r a t o r y b e h a v i o u r . 6. I t i s assumed t h a t t h e r e i s no d i f f e r e n c e between p r i m a r y s c h o o l , h i g h s c h o o l , and c o l l e g e g r a d u a t e s i n t e r m s o f t h e i r r u r a l - u r b a n m i g r a t o r y b e h a v i o u r s . 7. R u r a l i t e s behave as r a t i o n a l economic i n d i v i d u a l s i n t h e i r d e c i s i o n s t o m i g r a t e : t h e y w i l l go t o urban a r e a s as long as t h e i r e x p e c t e d income f l o w s w i l l be i n c r e a s e d by so d o i n g . - 49 - ENVIRONMENT International Relations Modernization ENVIRONMENT: Government Act i v i ty Government Pol icy-Making Powers People and Material Flow Non-material flow e g . , i nformat ion ENVIRONMENT: .Demographic Conditions Economic Development ; Fic'ure 4 . 1 ~ " . A SYSTEMS MODEL OF RURAL-URBAN MIGRATION IN NIGERIA ( SIMPLIFIED') - 50 - ENVIRONMENT I n t e r n a t i o n a l R e l a t i o n s M o d e r n i z a t i o n ENVIRONMENT: . Government A c t i v i t y - . Government P o l i c y - M a k i n g Powers ; - I . ,6a Rura1 Uneducated : Employed CRUE) i t r 17 18 1 1 -KB 1 . 33 1 1 I 44 1 1 i 1 1 . 1 i 34- 1 ^ People and M a t e r i a l Flow ~ ~ — ~y N o n - m a t e r i a l FI 3W ENVIRONMENT: Demographic C o n d i t i o n s Economic Development Figure 4.2 A SYSTEMS MODEL OF RURAL-URBAN MIGRATION : IN NIGERIA - 51 - • i 8. S u b s t a n t i a l u r b a n - r u r a l f e e d b a c k e f f e c t s a r e i n o p e r a t i o n , and \ t h e y have a major impact on t h e m i g r a t o r y b e h a v i o u r o f r u r a l p e o p l e . 4.1.2 D e f i n i t i o n o f t h e Model Two s e p a r a t e diagrams o f t h e model have been p r e p a r e d . One i s a s i m p l i f i e d v e r s i o n ( F i g u r e 4.1) i n t e n d e d t o emphasize t h e b a s i c s t r u c t u r e o f t h e model, and t o l e a d t h e r e a d e r up t o t h e s e c o n d , more e l a b o r a t e v e r s i o n ( F i g u r e 4 . 2 ) . In broad o u t l i n e t h e model i s made up o f a number o f s t o c k v a r i a b l e s .and r a t e v a r i a b l e s l i n k e d t o g e t h e r by a c t u a l o r h y p o t h e s i z e d r e I a t i o n s h i ps. These components t o g e t h e r d e f i n e t h e b o u n d a r i e s o f t h e system. Beyond t h e s e b o u n d a r i e s I i e s t h e system e n v i r o n m e n t . T h e r e a r e e i g h t s t o c k v a r i a b l e s i n t h e systems model. They d e s c r i b e t h e c o n d i t i o n o f t h e sys t e m a t any p a r t i c u l a r t i m e , and a c c u m u l a t e t h e r e s u l t s o f p r o c e s s e s t a k i n g p l a c e w i t h i n i t ( F o r r e s t e r , 1968). Rate v a r i a b l e s , on t h e o t h e r hand, d e t e r m i n e t h e change p e r u n i t t i m e i n t h e s t o c k v a r i a b l e s . L e v e l s o f s t o c k s depend upon t h e r a t e v a r i a - b l e s , and d e s i r e d l e v e l s may be b r o u g h t about by r e g u l a t i n g t h e r a t e s o f f l o w i n t h e sy s t e m . There a r e a l t o g e t h e r t w e l v e r a t e v a r i a b l e s i n t h e mode I. I The i n t e r r e l a t i o n s h i p s ( d i r e c t e d a r r o w s ) between s t o c k s and r a t e s a r e m o s t l y h y p o t h e s i z e d as r e p r e s e n t a t i v e o f r e a l i t y and a r e e l a b o r a t e d upon i n t h e body of t h i s c h a p t e r . Four components have been i d e n t i f i e d as major i n t h e sys t e m e n v i r o n - ment: government a c t i v i t y and p o l i c y - m a k i n g powers; t h e demographic s i t - u a t i o n ; economic development and m o d e r n i z a t i o n ; and i n t e r n a t i o n a l r e l a t i o n s , A more d e t a i l e d t r e a t m e n t o f each o f t h e group s o f s y s t e m components f o l l o w s . - 52 - 4.1.3 S t o c k V a r i a b l e s T h r e e c r i t e r i a have been a p p l i e d i n t h e c h o i c e o f s t o c k v a r i a b l e s o f t h e model. F i r s t , t h e phenomenon o f r u r a l - u r b a n m i g r a t i o n i s an a s p e c t o f i n t e r a c t i o n between r u r a l and urban a r e a s . I t i s n o t p o s s i b l e t o a n a l y z e i t r e a l i s t i c a l l y w i t h o u t t a k i n g i n t o a c c o u n t t h e c o n d i t i o n s t t i a t e x i s t i n b oth r u r a l and urban a r e a s . T h e r e f o r e t h e s t o c k v a r i a b l e s a r e o f two k i n d s ; , r u r a l and urban. S e c o n d l y , as soon as one b e g i n s t o c o n s i d e r t h e q u e s t i o n o f r u r a l - urban m i g r a t i o n i n l e s s d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s he w i l l q u i c k l y come t o t h e r e a l i z a t i o n t h a t t h e p r o c e s s i s i n t i m a t e l y t i e d up w i t h t h e i s s u e o f employment and unemployment. I n v e s t i g a t i o n o f t h e employment-unemployment c o n d i t i o n o f t h e r e a l - w o r l d s y s t e m i s t r u l y an i n t e g r a l e l e m e n t i n t h e u n d e r s t a n d i n g o f b e h a v i o u r w i t h i n i t . L a s t l y , t h e r e i s ample e v i d e n c e i n t h e l i t e r a t u r e t o s u p p o r t t h e v i e w t h a t t h e r e i s a s t r o n g r e l a t i o n s h i p between t h e e d u c a t i o n o f a r u r a l p e r s o n and h i s p r o p e n s i t y t o m i g r a t e ( C a l d w e l l , 1969; Rempel, 1970; S a b o t , 1972). T h e r e has been an a t t e m p t t h e r e f o r e t o i n c o r p o r a t e e x p l i c i t l y t h e e d u c a t i o n e l e m e n t i n t o t h e model. The breakdown o f s t o c k v a r i a b l e s used i n t h e model i s p r e s e n t e d i n T a b l e 4.1. TABLE 4.1 STOCK VARIABLES CLASS OF VARIABLE NAME OF VARIABLE ABBREVIATION Rura I. Uneducated Unemployed RUU- RURAL R u r a l Educated Unemployed REU R u r a l Uneducated Employed RUE Rura I Educated Employed REE Urban Uneducated Unemployed UUU URBAN Urban Educated Unemployed UEU Urban Uneducated Employed UUE Urban Educated Employed UEE . - 54 - a) R u r a l Unemployment S t o c k V a r i a b l e s ' \ i ) R u r a l Uneducated Unemployed (RUU): T h i s s t o c k may be d e f i n e d as •I t h e a c c u m u I a t i o n o f r u r a l p e o p l e who a r e both uneducated and unemployed. An a d u l t o f 15 y e a r s and o v e r who has n e v e r gone t o s c h o o l , o r who i s a p r i m a r y s c h o o l d r o p - o u t , i s c o n s i d e r e d t o be u n e d u c a t e d , ,Again an a d u l t o f 15 y e a r s and o v e r who i s n o t i n v o l v e d i n s u f f i c i e n t g a i n f u l work t o be a b l e t o s u p p o r t h i m s e l f (and h i s d e p e n d e n t s , i f a n y ) . i s a l s o p l a c e d i n t h e unemployed c l a s s i f i c a t i o n w i t h i n t h e model. Thus a y o u t h who i s 15 y e a r s o l d , not i n s c h o o l , and s u p p o r t e d by h i s p a r e n t s i s c a t e g o r i z e d as unemployed. The r e a s o n f o r i s o l a t i n g t h i s s t o c k as a d i s t i n c t i v e e l e ment i s t h a t t h e p e o p l e i n t h i s c a t e g o r y u s u a l l y e x h i b i t m i g r a t i o n b e h a v i o u r t r a i t s d i f f e r e n t from t h o s e o f t h e e d u c a t e d . They w i l l n o r m a l l y have r e l a t i v e l y low a s p i r a t i o n s and income e x p e c t a t i o n s ; and w i l l be more l i k e l y t o engage i n a g r i c u l t r u a l p u r s u i t s a t low r e t u r n s . The s o - c a l l e d " u r b a n - p u l l " a f f e c t s t h i s group l e s s s t r o n g l y t h a n i t s e d u c a t e d c o u n t e r - p a r t , and when i t s members do m i g r a t e t o t h e c i t y t h e i r d e s t i n a t i o n s a r e p r e d o m i n a n t l y t h e low-wage, t r a d i t i o n a l s e c t o r . The s t o c k i s d i r e c t l y a f f e c t e d by t h r e e r a t e v a r i a b l e s : r u r a I - u r b a n m i g r a t i o n r a t e (arrow #1); r u r a l uneducated l a b o u r t r a n s f o r m a t i o n ( 3 ) ; and r e v e r s e m i g r a t i o n ( 5 ) . The r a t e s o f t h e s e v a r i a b l e s d e t e r m i n e t h e l e v e l o f r u r a l uneducated unemployed a t any p o i n t i n t i m e . C e r t a i n exogenous v a r i a b l e s , n o t shown i n t h e model a l s o a f f e c t t h i s s t o c k . These a r e r u r a l b i r t h and d e a th r a t e s and t h e p e r c e n t a g e o f r u r a l c h i l d r e n t h a t goes t o s c h o o l . Thus we can s t a t e , i n s h o r t h a n d f o r m , t h a t RUU = f(RUM, RULT, URM) i i ) R u r a l E d u c a t e d Unemployed (REU): T h i s s t o c k may be d e f i n e d as t h e a c c u m u l a t i o n o f r u r a l , e d u c a t e d p e o p l e who a r e - a l s o unemployed. The r e a s o n f o r t r e a t i n g i t as a d i s t i n c t i v e s t o c k has been mentioned e a r l i e r t h e a c q u i s i t i o n o f e d u c a t i o n does i n f l u e n c e t h e m i g r a t o r y p r o p e n s i t y o f r u r a l p e o p l e . In t h e N i g e r i a n s i t u a t i o n i t i s l i k e l y t h a t t h i s s t o c k y i e l d s w e l l o v e r 50% o f t h o s e who m i g r a t e from r u r a l t o urban a r e a s ( C a l l a w a y , 1967). T h i s s t o c k i s d i r e c t l y a f f e c t e d by f o u r s y s t e m v a r i a b l e s : r u r a l - u r b a n m i g r a t i o n ( 7 ) ; r u r a l e d u c a t e d l a b o u r t r a n s f o r m a t i o n ( 9 ) ; r u r a l e d u c a t i o n ( 1 1 ) ; and u r b a n - r u r a l m i g r a t i o n ( 1 3 ) . The r a t e a t w h i c h r u r a l - u r b a n m i g r a t i o n i s p r o c e e d i n g w i l l have a n e g a t i v e a f f e c t upon t h e . s t o c k , i . e . , a h i g h r a t e o f RUM w i l l n o r m a l l y mean a low l e v e l o f REU and v i c e v e r s a . In t h e c a s e o f o u t p u t o f t h e r u r a l s c h o o l s y s t e m t h e r e i s a p o s i t i v e r e l a t i o n s h i p w i t h REU. A h i g h r a t e o f s c h o o l •graduate o u t p u t i m p l i e s a h i g h l e v e l o f REU. A p o s i t i v e r e l a t i o n s h i p a l s o a p p l i e s i n t h e c a s e o f URM-REU r e l a t i o n s h i p . In compact form we have REU = f(RUM, RELT, URM, RE) The p r o b a b l e b e h a v i o u r o f t h i s s t o c k o v e r t i m e and i n t h e f a c e o f d i m i n i s h i n g urban o p p o r t u n i t i e s f o r each s t r a t u m o f e d u c a t e d r u r a l j p e o p I e r a i s e s some r e l e v a n t q u e s t i o n s . Does a h i g h e r p r o p o r t i o n o f s c h o o l g r a d u a t e s s t a y back i n r u r a l a r e a s each y e a r as urban o p p o r t u n - i t i e s d i m i n i s h ? Is t h i s t h e c a s e f o r both p r i m a r y and h i g h s c h o o l g r a d u a t e s ? Is t h e g r o w i n g , a d v e r s e urban c o n d i t i o n r e f l e c t e d i n t h e magnitude o f r e v e r s e m i g r a t i o n ? Do r e t u r n m i g r a n t s , as a r e s u l t o f t h e f r u s t r a t i o n s t h e y e x p e r i e n c e i n t h e urban a r e a , become s e r i o u s l y i n - v o l v e d i n e k i n g o u t a l i v i n g i n t h e r u r a l a r e a , o r do t h e y t e m p o r a r i l y r e t i r e t o l i v e o f f o t h e r p e o p l e w h i l e w a i t i n g f o r more p o s i t i v e s i g n a l s from t h e urban a r e a ? How v a l i d i s t h e c l a i m t h a t e x i s t i n q r u r a l • \ s c h o o l s o n l y p r e p a r e s t u d e n t s f o r urban, w h i t e - c o l l a r j o b s ? b) R u r a l Employment S t o c k V a r i a b l e s i ) R u r a l Uneducated Employed (RUE): T h i s s t o c k i s d e f i n e d as t h e a c c u m u l a t i o n o f t h e r u r a l uneducated who a r e a l s o employed. Because a member o f t h i s s t o c k i s employed and a b l e t o s u p p o r t h i m s e l f i n t h e r u r a l a r e a he i s more l i k e l y t o t a k e a c l o s e l o o k a t a l t e r n a t i v e s t h a t a w a i t him a t t h e urban a r e a b e f o r e a b a n d o n i n g h i s r u r a l employment t h a n i s -hi s unemployed c o u n t e r p a r t . However, he i s a l w a y s on t h e a l e r t f o r t h a t p o s i t i v e s i g n a l t o l e a v e t h e r u r a l a r e a . Employment here r e f e r s t o a l a r g e e x t e n t , t o t h o s e i n s m a l l - s c a l e s u b s i s t e n c e a g r i c u l t u r e ; e x p o r t a g r i c u l t u r e i s o f s e c o n d a r y , b u t . i n c r e a s i n g , i m p o r t a n c e . There i s a g r e a t danger i n making t o o c l e a r - c u t a c a t e g o r i z a t i o n o f employment i n t h e N i g e r i a n e n v i r o n m e n t , f o r many who work as f a r m e r s a r e a l s o t r a d e r s and c r a f t s m e n . Hence t h e d e f i n i t i o n o f employment g i v e n i n s e c t i o n a) i ) above. T h i s s t o c k i s a f f e c t e d by t h r e e v a r i a b l e s : r u r a l - u r b a n m i g r a t i o n ( 1 5 ) ; • r u r a l uneducated l a b o u r t r a n s f o r m a t i o n ( 1 7 ) ; and r e v e r s e m i g r a t i o n ( 5 a ) . O t h e r t h i n g s e q u a l , t h e g r e a t e r t h e r a t e of- r u r a l u neducated l a b o u r t r a n s f o r m a t i o n (17) t h e l a r g e r t h e s i z e o f RUE and t h e s m a l l e r w i l l be t h e s i z e o f RUU. Most p e o p l e employed i n t h e r u r a l a r e a s w i l l n o r m a l l y abandon t h e i r work f o r urban employment i f t h e y r e c e i v e s t r o n g and p o s i t i v e i n f o r m a t i o n from t h e urban s e c t o r . But i f t h e f e e d b a c k i s c o n s i s t e n t l y n e g a t i v e i n c h a r a c t e r t h e d e s i r e t o m i g r a t e w i l l be g r e a t l y d i m i n i s h e d . I t seems r e a s o n a b l e t o argue t h a t anyone who has t i r e d o f w a i t i n g f o r an urban j o b , and who has mustered enough c o u r a g e t o r e t u r n i t o h i s r u r a l o r i g i n , w i l l become much more d e t e r m i n e d t o f i n d employment \ i n t h e r u r a l a r e a . In t h i s way, URM may h a v e . a V p o s i t i v e e f f e c t (5a) upon RUE. High r a t e s o f r u r a l - u r b a n m i g r a t i o n s h o u l d have a n e g a t i v e e f f e c t (15) on RUE. In f u n c t i o n a l f o r m, we have ' RUE = f(RUM, RULT, URM) i i ) R u r a l E d u c a t e d Employed (REE): T h i s i s t h e a c c u m u l a t i o n o f e d u c a t e d , employed r u r a l p e o p l e . The s t o c k i s I j i k e l y t o be a s m a l l j one compared t o RUE because most e d u c a t e d p e o p l e w i l l not be engaged 1 i n a g r i c u l t u r e , t h e p r e d o m i n a n t a c t i v i t y i n t h e r u r a l s e c t o r . The form o f employment t a k e n by e d u c a t e d p e o p l e i n t h e r u r a l a r e a i s u s u a l l y non-farm ( t e a c h i n g , t r a d i n g , p u b l i c s e r v i c e , t r a n s p o r t , h a n d i c r a f t s , e t c . ) and i s i n s h o r t s u p p l y i n t h e r u r a l s e c t o r . REE, l i k e REU, i s a s i g n i f i c a n t s o u r c e o f r u r a l - u r b a n m i g r a n t s because p e o p l e i n t h e c a t e g o r y o f t e n abandon t h e i r r u r a l j o b s when t h e y p e r c e i v e t h a t t h e i r chances i n t h e urban s e c t o r have improved. REE i s a f u n c t i o n o f r u r a l e d u c a t i o n , R E ( 2 5 ) . The more e d u c a t e d p e o p l e t h e r e a r e , t h e more t h e y w i l l t r y t o squeeze t h e m s e l v e s i n t o r u r a l employment. T h i s s t o c k i s a l s o a f u n c t i o n o f r u r a l e d u c a t e d l a b o u r t r a n s f o r m a t i o n (19) w h i c h , i n t u r n , i s . dependent on REU and r u r a l employment g e n e r a t i o n . URM o r r e t u r n m i g r a t i o n (23) w i l l a p p e a r t o have an e f f e c t upon REE because o f t h e presumed d e t e r m i n a t i o n o f r e t u r n m i g r a n t s t o s u c c e e d i n t h e r u r a l a r e a . H i g h r a t e s o f RUM w i l l have a n e g a t i v e e f f e c t upon REE ( 2 1 ) . Thus REE = f ( R E , RELT, RUM, URM) - 58 - c) Urban Unemployment S t o c k V a r i a b l e s i ) Urban Uneducated Unemployed (UUU): T h i s i s t h e a c c u m u l a t i o n o f t h e uneducated and unemployed i n t h e urban s e c t o r . I t w i l l c o n s i s t o f r e c e n t r u r a l - u r b a n m i g r a n t s as w e l l as t h o s e who m i g r a t e d many y e a r s b e f o r e . I t w i l l a l s o c o n t a i n u n e d u c a t e d , unemployed peopIe a c t u a I Iy born i n t h e urban a r e a . The i n f l u e n c e e x e r t e d by t h i s s t o c k on RUM (28) i s c o n s i d e r a b l e and i t i s a c h i e v e d t h r o u g h u r b a n - r u r a l f e e d b a c k c h a n n e l s . On t h e o t h e r hand, RUM i t s e l f i n f l u e n c e s UUU (27) and so t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p between them c o n s t i t u t e s a s i m p l e f e e d b a c k l o o p . D e t a i l s o f t h i s r e l a t i o n s h i p w i l l be g i v e n i n s e c t i o n 4.1.6 ( e ) . O t h e r v a r i a b l e s t h a t d i r e c t l y a f f e c t UUU a r e t h e urban uneducated l a b o u r t r a n s f o r m a t i o n ( 2 9 ) , urban e d u c a t i o n p r o c e s s (31) and u r b a n - r u r a l m i g r a t - i o n ( 3 3 ) . The l a b o u r t r a n s f o r m a t i o n v a r i a b l e s h o u l d have a n e g a t i v e e f f e c t upon UUU because h i g h e r r a t e s o f t r a n s f o r m a t i o n mean more unemployed o u t o f t h e s t o c k . However, g i v e n t h e p o s s i b i l i t y o f ind u c e d m i g r a t i o n , t h e p r o - c e s s whereby one new urban j o b a t t r a c t s s e v e r a I r u r a l - u r b a n m i g r a n t s , t h e n e t e f f e c t may w e l l be p o s i t i v e . The urban e d u c a t i o n p r o c e s s a f f e c t s UUU i n two ways: 1) by p r o v i d i n g n i g h t s c h o o l f a c i l i t i e s f o r uneducated a d u l t s ; and 2) by t a k i n g up young p r i m a r y s c h o o l g r a d u a t e s who p r o c e e d t o h i g h s c h o o l because t h e y a r e u n a b l e t o f i n d employment. U r b a n - r u r a l m i g r a t i o n has a n e g a t i v e e f f e c t upon UUU because h i g h m i g r a t i o n r a t e s mean d e p a r t u r e o f l a r g e numbers o f p e o p l e from t h e s t o c k . Urban b i r t h and death r a t e s may a l s o have s i g n i f i c a n t e f f e c t s upon UUU. i j i ) Urban Educated Unemployed (UEU): T h i s s t o c k may be d e f i n e d as t h e a c c u m u l a t i o n o f e d u c a t e d , unemployed p e r s o n s .derived from both urban and I: r u r a l s o u r c e s . A h i g h p e r c e n t a g e o f t h e members o f t h i s s t o c k a r e young p e o p l e who a r e poured o u t o f t h e e d u c a t i o n s y s t e m each year t o t a k e t h e i r p l a c e s i n t h e long l i n e o f p e o p l e w a i t i n g t o g e t urban j o b s . "Unemployment among s c h o o l l e a v e r s [ g r a d u a t e s ] i s p e r h a p s t h e most s e r i o u s l o n g - r u n s o c i o - p o l i t i c a l 'problem f a c i n g A f r i c a n . c o u n t r i e s " ( C a l l a w a y ; 1963: 3 7 1 ) . . • T h i s s t o c k m i r r o r s t h e y o u t h unemployment probljem i n N i g e r i a . 1 F o u r v a r i a b l e s impinge d i r e c t l y upon t h i s s t o c k : r u r a l - u r b a n m i g r a - t i o n ( 3 5 ) , urban e d u c a t i o n ( 3 9 ) , urban e d u c a t e d l a b o u r t r a n s f o r m a t i o n ( 4 1 ) , and r e v e r s e m i g r a t i o n ( 3 7 ) . I t i s . r e a s o n a b l e t o e x p e c t t h a t t h e g r e a t e r t h e r a t e o f m i g r a t i o n o f r u r a l e d u c a t e d y o u t h , t h e g r e a t e r w i l l be t h e s i z e o f t h i s s t o c k . A l s o t h e g r e a t e r t h e annual o u t p u t o f t h e urban s c h o o l s y s t e m , t h e g r e a t e r t h e s i z e o f UEU. The urban e d u c a t e d l a b o u r t r a n s f o r m a t i o n r a t e v a r i a b l e i s n e g a t i v e l y r e l a t e d t o UEU; t h e g r e a t e r t h e r a t e o f l a b o u r t r a n s f o r m a - t i o n , t h e s m a l l e r t h e s i z e o f UEU, c a t e r i s p a r i b u s , and v i c e v e r s a . F i n a l l y , h i g h r a t e s o f r e v e r s e m i g r a t i o n mean a c o r r e s p o n d i n g l y r a p i d d e c r e a s e i n t h e s i z e o f UEU. I Summarizing t h e above we have UEU = f(RUM, UE, UELT, URM) d) Urban Employment S t o c k V a r i a b l e s i ) Urban Uneducated Employed (UUE): T h i s s t o c k may be d e f i n e d a s t h e a c c u m u l a t i o n o f t h e uneducated employed i n t h e urban s e c t o r . I t i s a l m o s t c o i n c i d e n t w i t h t h o s e employed i n t.he t r a d i t i o n a l s e c t o r o f t h e urban economy. The most common form o f a c t i v i t y i s p e t t y t r a d i n g where no s e r i o u s e d u c a t i o n a l b a r r i e r s e x i s t and where t h e market a p p r o a c h e s t h e i d e a l o f p e r f e c t c o m p e t i t i o n (Frankman and C h a r l e , 1973). O t h e r i m p o r t a n t forms o f employment a r e p e r s o n a l s e r v i c e s ( d o m e s t i c work, h a i r - c u t t i n g , laundry s e r v i c e s , s h o e - s h i n i n g ) , manual j o b s i n c o n s t r u c t i o n and t r a n s p o r t a t i o n , e t c . P r o b a b l y t h e most i m p o r t a n t v a r i a b l e t h a t a f f e c t s t h i s s t o c k i s t h e urban uneducated l a b o u r t r a n s f o r m a t i o n , UULT. In a d d i t i o n , r u r a I - u r b a n • m i g r a t i o n ( 4 3 ) , and r e v e r s e m i g r a t i o n (45) a l s o a j f f e c t t h e s t o c k d i r e c t l y . The r e l a t i o n s h i p between UUE and t h e uneducated l a b o u r t r a n s f o r m a t i o n i s a n e g a t i v e one; a h i g h r a t e o f l a b o u r t r a n s f o r m a t i o n means a low •rate o f i n c r e a s e f o r UUE and v i c e v e r s a , i . e . , t h e f o r m e r o p e r a t e s t o d i m i n i s h t h e l a t t e r . A l s o t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p between UEE and r e v e r s e m i g r a t i o n i s a l s o a n e g a t i v e one; w h i l e t h a t w i t h r u r a l - u r b a n m i g r a t i o n seems t o be a p o s i t i v e one. B r i e f l y t h e n , we have 'UUE = f(UULT, RUM, URM) i i ) Urban E d u c a t e d Employed (UEE): T h i s s t o c k may be d e f i n e d as t h e a c c u m u l a t i o n o f t h e e d u c a t e d employed i n t h e urban a r e a . Employment he r e i s m a i n l y i n t h e modern s e c t o r (government s e r v i c e , l a r g e - s c a l e • i n d u s t r y , commerce, f i n a n c e , urban u t i l i t i e s , t r a n s p o r t and communica- t i o n ) . . L i k e UUE, t h i s s t o c k has p o w e r f u l f e e d b a c k e f f e c t s w h i c h a r e e x e r t e d t h r o u g h RMT, URM and URC. The members o f t h i s s t o c k r e p r e s e n t , i n t h e ey e s o f t h e r u r a l p e o p l e , t h e i d e a l t o w a r d s w h i c h most young p e o p l e a s p i r e : t o be e d u c a t e d ; t o be i n t h e c i t y ; and t o be employed. The v a r i a b l e i t s e l f i s d i r e c t l y a f f e c t e d by f o u r o t h e r s : t h e urban e d u c a t e d l a b o u r t r a n s f o r m a t i o n ( 5 1 ) ; urban e d u c a t i o n ( 5 3 ) ; r u r a l - u r b a n i m i g r a t i o n ( 4 9 ) , and r e v e r s e ' m i g r a t i o n , i . e . , t h o s e r e t i r i n g t o t h e r u r a l a r e a ( 6 6 ) . The s t o c k i s p o s i t i v e l y r e l a t e d t o ,,the 'labour t r a n s f o r m a t i o n r u r a l - u r b a n m i g r a t i o n , and t h e urban e d u c a t i o n V a r i a b l e s . B u t , i t s i r e l a t i o n s h i p w i t h r e v e r s e m i g r a t i o n i s a n e g a t i v e one. Su m m a r i z i n g , t h e n UEE = f ( U E L T , UE, RUM, URM) 4.1.4 Rate V a r i a b l e s R a te v a r i a b l e s i n t h e systems model f a l l i n t o f o u r c l a s s e s : e d u c a t i o n employment g e n e r a t i o n ; l a b o u r t r a n s f o r m a t i o n ; and u r b a n - r u r a l i n t e r a c t i o n . The breakdown o f t h e v a r i a b l e s i s p r e s e n t e d i n T a b l e 4.2. E v e r y one o f t h e r a t e v a r i a b l e s i s a p o l i c y i n t e r v e n t i o n p o i n t . T hat i s t o say t h a t i n t h e systems model h e r e i n t h e r e a r e t w e l v e d i f f e r e n t p o t e n t i a l i n t e r v e n t i o n p o i n t s . Some a r e more s e n s i t i v e t o p o l i c y i n t e r - v e n t i o n t h a n o t h e r s , but t h e e x p l i c i t t r e a t m e n t o f such p o i n t s i s one o f t h e a t t r a c t i o n s o f t h i s a p p r o a c h . a) E d u c a t i o n V a r i a b l e s i ) R u r a l E d u c a t i o n : T h i s v a r i a b l e may be d e f i n e d as t h e annual r a t e o f o u t p u t o f g r a d u a t e s from r u r a l e d u c a t i o n e s t a b l i s h m e n t s : p r i m a r y , s e c o n d a r y and p o s t - s e c o n d a r y . The c h o i c e o f t h i s v a r i a b l e i s d i c t a t e d by t h e f a c t t h a t e d u c a t i o n i s c o n s i d e r e d t o be an i m p o r t a n t l i n k i n t h e c h a i n o f e v e n t s t h a t - i m p e l s a r u r a l p e r s o n t o m i g r a t e t o an. urban a r e a . The c r u c i a l r e l a t i o n s h i p between e d u c a t i o n and r u r a l - u r b a n m i g r a t i o n can be summed up i n one word: m o d e r n i z a t i o n . T h i s i s a magic word i n TABLE 4.2 RATE VARIABLES CLASS OF VARIABLE. NAME OF VARIABLE ABBREVIATION E d u c a t i o n Rura 1 Urban E d u c a t i o n E d u c a t i o n RE UE Employment G e n e r a t i o n R u r a l Urban Employment G e n e r a t i o n Employment G e n e r a t i o n REG UEG R u r a l Uneducated Labour T r a n s f o r m a t i o n RULT Labour T r a n s f o r m a t i o n Rura 1 . Urban Educated Labour T r a n s f o r m a t i o n Uneducated Labour T r a n s f o r m a t i o n RELT UULT Urban Educated Labour T r a n s f o r m a t i o n UELT R u r a l --Urban M i g r a t i o n RUM U r b a n - R u r a l I n t e r a c t i o n / Urban- Urban- - R u r a l Communication - R u r a l R e m i t t a n c e URC RMT Urban-- R u r a l M i g r a t i o n URM most l e s s d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s t o d a y . I t s t a n d s ^ f o r a b u n d l e o f many d i f f e r e n t e l e m e n t s - a l l t h a t i s n o n - t r a d i t i o n a I ; urban r a t h e r t h a n r u r a l ; a new l i f e s t y l e ; work i n f a c t o r i e s and government o f f i c e s r a t h e r t h a n i n s m a l l f a m i l y f a r m s ; c a s h incomes l a r g e enough t o p e r m i t ample c o n s u m p t i o n o f t h e s t e a d y f l o w o f a t t r a c t i v e , o f t e n f o r e i g n , m a n u f a c t u r e d goods; g e t t i n g away from t h e r e s t r i c t i o n s o f t h e r u r a l e n v i r o n m e n t t o a b r i g h t new w o r l d f u l l o f p o s s i b i l i t i e s . The s c h o o l s a r e p e r c e i v e d as t h e c e r t a i n gateway t o t h i s g l i t t e r i n g w o r l d o f m o d e r n i t y . To p u p i l s , t h e i r t e a c h e r s , and p a r e n t s , t h e r e i s no m i s t a k i n g t h i s f a c t . " F o r t h e y o u t h , becoming modern p e r s o n s means a c q u i r i n g e d u c a t i o n , m i g r a t i n g . t o t h e c i t y , f i n d i n g a j o b i n some n o n - t r a d i t i o n a l s p h e r e , becoming t r a i n e d f o r an o c c u p a t i o n i n t h e modern s p h e r e o f s o c i e t y and t a k i n g t h e v a l u e s and l i f e s t y l e s r e p r e s e n t i n g m o d e r n i t y . The most i m p o r t a n t i n s t r u m e n t a l g o a l s f o r modern s t a t u s i n v o l v e e d u c a - t i o n and o c c u p a t i o n a l a s p i r a t i o n s . " (McQueen, 1969: 447) " . . . o n l y a few p a r e n t s - most o f whom a r e f a r m e r s - want t h e i r s c h o o l c h i l d r e n t o become f a r m e r s . Compared w i t h t h e p o s s i b i l i t i e s t h a t e d u c a t i o n can l e a d t o , f a r m i n g - however n e c e s s a r y - i s downgraded. The v i I I age. schooI i s more o f t e n t h o u g h t o f as a symbol o f t h e means o f f r e e i n g t h e younger g e n e r a t i o n from t h e d r u d g e r y o f f a r m i n g . These p a r e n t s pay t h e modest s c h o o l f e e s - o f t e n a c o n s i d e r a b l e amount o f t h e income t h a t comes from l o c a l s a l e s o f s u r p l u s produce - w i t h t h e hopes t h a t t h e i r c h i l d r e n l a t e r on w i l l g a i n j o b s t h a t p r o v i d e f i n a n c i a l rewards and p r e s t i g e . " ( C a l l a w a y , 1963: 354) The above p a s s a g e s v i v i d l y i l l u s t r a t e t h e l i n k between r u r a l e d u c a t i o n and r u r a l - u r b a n m i g r a t i o n and t h e j u s t i f i c a t i o n f o r t r e a t i n g e d u c a t i o n as a d i s t i n c t v a r i a b l e i n t h e systems model. The r u r a l e d u c a t i o n v a r i a b l e i s d i r e c t l y a f f e c t e d w i t h i n t h e model by t h e s t o c k o f r u r a l e d u c a t e d employed ( 2 6 ) ; t h e s i z e o f t h e r u r a l e d u c a t e d unemployed p o o l ( 1 2 ) ; and t h e amount o f r e m i t t a n c e s f l o w i n g i n from urban s o u r c e s ( 5 9 ) . The g r e a t e r t h e number o f e d u c a t e d p e o p l e employed l o c a l l y t h e s t r o n g e r t h e s c h o o l system w i l l be and t h e g r e a t e r w i l l be t h e number o f annual \ g r a d u a t e s . Educated p e o p l e t e n d t o be s t r o n g . s u p p o r t e r s o f t h e i r 1' c h i l d r e n ' s e d u c a t i o n . On t h e o t h e r hand, a h i g h l e v e l o f unemployment among r u r a l e d u c a t e d p e o p l e r e d u c e s t h e a b i l i t y t o s u p p o r t c h i l d r e n ' s e d u c a t i o n ; i t may a l s o have t h e e f f e c t o f dampening t h e enthusiasm' o f p a r e n t s and p u p i l s r e g a r d i n g s c h o o l i n g . T h i r d l y , i t a p p e a r s t h a t a major . f r a c t i o n o f r e m i t t a n c e s from urban a r e a s go i n t o r u r a l s c h o o l - f e e s . So, t h e g r e a t e r t h e amount o f r e m i t t a n c e s , , t h e g r e a t e r t h e number o f p e o p l e who go t h r o u g h s c h o o l . j Thus, RE = f ( R E E , REU, RMT) i i ) Urban E d u c a t i o n : T h i s v a r i a b l e i s t h e annual r a t e o f o u t p u t o f g r a d u a t e s by urban e d u c a t i o n a l i n s t i t u t i o n s . The urban e d u c a t i o n v a r i a b l e i s a f u n c t i o n o f f o u r s y s t e m v a r i a b l e s : urban uneducated unemployed ( 3 2 ) , urban e d u c a t e d unemployed ( 4 0 ) , urban e d u c a t e d employed (54) and urban uneducated employed ( 6 8 ) . Urban a r e a s ' i n N i g e r i a a r e known f o r t h e i r a d u l t e d u c a t i o n programs w h i c h a t t r a c t many r u r a l p e o p l e . One t h e r e f o r e e x p e c t s a p o s i t i v e r e l a - t i o n s h i p between t h e e d u c a t i o n v a r i a b l e and urban uneducated unemployed. The e f f e c t o f urban e d u c a t e d unemployed on urban e d u c a t i o n w i l l be a .ne g a t i v e one s i n c e a l a r g e unemployed e d u c a t e d pool w i l l mean l e s s e d u c a t i o n e x p e n d i t u r e . On t h e o t h e r hand, a l a r g e e d u c a t e d employed pool means more revenue f o r t h e e d u c a t i o n s y s t e m and g r e a t e r annual o u t p u t o f g r a d u a t e s . The e f f e c t o f urban uneducated employed on t h e e d u c a t i o n v a r i a b l e i s a l s o a p o s i t i v e one. There a r e some exogenous v a r i a b l e s t h a t a f f e c t t h e urban e d u c a - t i o n v a r i a b l e , and t h e s e a r e urban b i r t h and d e a t h r a t e s and p u b l i c - 65 - e x p e n d i t u r e on urban e d u c a t i o n . In b r i e f t h e n , w i t h i n t h e model UE = f(UUU, UEU, UEE, UUE) b) Employment G e n e r a t i o n V a r i a b l e s i ) R u r a l Employment G e n e r a t i o n (REG): T h i s v a r i a b l e may be d e f i n e d as t h e annual r a t e o f g e n e r a t i o n " o f new employment i n t h e r u r a l s e c t o r . The v a r i a b l e i s a f u n c t i o n o f s e v e r a l f a c t o r s : l a n d / p o p u l a t i o n r a t i o ; l a n d t e n u r e s y s t e m ; q u a l i t y o f a g r i c u l t u r a l l a n d j t e c h n o l o g i c a l s o p h i s - t i c a t i o n ; p r i c e s o f farm p r o d u c t s ; m a r k e t i n g f a c i j i t i e s ; p u b l i c i n v e s t m e n t i n r u r a l a r e a s ; e t c . However, a l l t h e s e v a r i a b l e s t h a t impinge •upon REG a r e exogenous t o t h e s y s t e m ( F i g u r e 4.2). D i r e c t l y o r i n d i r e c t l y , REG has a p o w e r f u l i n f l u e n c e on each o f t h e r u r a l s t o c k v a r i a b l e s , and t h i s e m p hasizes i t s key p o s i t i o n as a p o t e n t i a l p o l i c y i n t e r v e n t i o n p o i n t . U s i n g t h o s e v a r i a b l e s c o n s i d e r e d most i n f l u e n t i a l i n r u r a l employment g e n e r a t i o n we may s'ay t h a t REG = f ( R u r a l I n v e s t m e n t , R u r a l T e c h n o l o g y , F o r e i g n and D o m e s t i c Demand f o r R u r a l P r o d u c t s , L a n d / P o p u l a t i o n R a t i o , A c c e s s i b i l i t y t o M a r k e t s ) i i ) Urban Employment G e n e r a t i o n (UEG): T h i s v a r i a b l e i s t h e urban I c o u n t e r p a r t o f REG. I t may be d e f i n e d as t h e annual r a t e o f g e n e r a t i o n o f urban employment o f v a r i o u s c a t e g o r i e s . A g a i n , UEG, l i k e REG, i s a f u n c t i o n o f s e v e r a l f a c t o r s . Chief^among t h e s e a r e urban s a v i n g s and i n v e s t m e n t . A l s o i m p o r t a n t a r e t h e demand f o r urban goods and s e r v i c e s o r i g i n a t i n g ' f r o m d o m e s t i c p u b l i c and p r i v a t e s e c t o r s as w e l l as f o r e i g n s o u r c e s , and. t e c h n o logy which i n t u r n a f f e c t s i n v e s t m e n t . A l l t h e s e v a r i a b l e s a r e however exogenous t o t h e - 66 - s y s t e m ( F i g u r e 4.2). UEG has a d i r e c t p o s i t i v e impact upon t h e urban l a b o u r t r a n s f o r m a t i o n v a r i a b l e s , and, t h r o u g h them, e x e r t s an i n f l u e n c e upon each o f t h e urban s t o c k v a r i a b l e s . I t i s t h u s a key v a r i a b . l e f o r p o l i c y i n t e r v e n - t i o n . . - From t h e f o r e g o i n g i t may be s t a t e d t h a t UEG = f ( U r b a n I n v e s t m e n t , Demand f o r Urban Goods, T e c h n o l o g y ) c ) Labour T r a n s f o r m a t i o n V a r i a b l e s i ) . R u r a l Uneducated Labour T r a n s f o r m a t i o n (RU LT) R u r a l E ducated Labour T r a n s f o r m a t i o n (RELT): These v a r i a b l e s may be d e f i n e d as t h e annual r a t e s a t w h i c h r u r a l l a b o u r moves from a s t a t e o f unemployment t o one o f employment. Because a t any one t i m e t h e r e w i l l be movement i n both d i r e c t i o n s i t i s b e t t e r t o v i e w t h e s e r a t e s as n e t r a t e s . T h r e e s y s t e m v a r i a b l e s impinge d i r e c t l y upon r u r a l uneducated l a b o u r t r a n s f o r m a t i o n , RULT: r u r a l employment g e n e r a t i o n ( 6 1 ) ; r u r a l uneducated unemployed ( 4 ) ; and r u r a l uneducated' employed ( 1 8 ) . R u r a l employment g e n e r a t i o n has a p o s i t i v e e f f e c t upon RULT. A l s o , r u r a l uneducated unemployed w i l l a p p e a r t o have a p o s i t i v e e f f e c t upon RULT; and t h e l a r g e r RUE grows the stronger'the I o c a I economy and t h e f a s t e r t h e t r a n s f o r m a t i o n p r o c e s s . Thus we have RULT = f ( R E G , RUU, RUE) R u r a l e d u c a t e d l a b o u r t r a n s f o r m a t i o n i s d i r e c t l y a f f e c t e d by t h r e e v a r i a b l e s : r u r a l employment g e n e r a t i o n - ( 6 2 ) ; r u r a l e d u c a t e d unemployed ( 1 0 ) ; and r u r a l e d u c a t e d employed ( 2 0 ) . A l l t h r e e v a r i a b l e s a r e deemed t o have a p o s i t i v e i n f l u e n c e upon RELT. - 67 - Thus we have RELT = f ( R E G , REU, REE) i i ) Urban Uneducated Labour T r a n s f o r m a t i o n (UULT) Urban Educated Labour T r a n s f o r m a t i o n (UELT).: Urban l a b o u r t r a n s f o r m a t i o n v a r i a b l e s a r e t h e urban c o u n t e r p a r t s o f r u r a l l a b o u r t r a n s f o r m a t i o n v a r i a b l e s , and t h e y may be d e f i n e d as t h e annual r a t e s a t w h i c h urban l a b o u r moves from a s t a t e o f unemployment t o one o f employ- ment. The urban uneducated l a b o u r t r a n s f o r m a t i o n v a r i a b l e i s a f u n c t i o n o f t h r e e system v a r i a b l e s : urban employment g e n e r a t i o n ( 6 3 ) ; urban uned- u c a t e d unemployed ( 3 0 ) ; and urban uneducated employed ( 4 8 ) . The g r e a t e r t h e r a t e o f urban j o b c r e a t i o n , t h e g r e a t e r t h e r a t e o f uneducated l a b o u r t r a n s f o r m a t i o n . The g r e a t e r t h e s i z e o f t h e urban uneducated unemployed t h e g r e a t e r t h e p r e s s u r e on t h e employment a g e n c i e s t o p r o v i d e j o b s f o r more p e o p l e . A l s o t h e g r e a t e r t h e s i z e o f t h e urban uneducated employed, t h e g r e a t e r t h e demand f o r goods and t h e more l a b o u r i t i s p o s s i b l e t o t r a n s f o r m . •' .. The urban e d u c a t e d l a b o u r t r a n s f o r m a t i o n i s a l s o a f u n c t i o n o f t h r e e s y s t e m v a r i a b l e s : urban employment g e n e r a t i o n ( 6 4 ) ; urban e d u c a t e d unemployed ( 4 2 ) ; and urban e d u c a t e d employed ( 5 2 ) . A l l t h r e e v a r i a b l e s 1 a r e j u d g e d t o have a p o s i t i v e e f f e c t upon UELT. Thus we have UULT = f(UEG, UUU, UUE) • UELT = f(UEG, UEU, UEE) - 68 - 4.1.5 Ur b a n - R u r a l Feedback Rate V a r i a b l e s a) R e m i t t a n c e s (RMT) T h i s i s t h e annual amount o f money f l o w i n g from u r b a n i t e s t o s u p p o r t r u r a l r e l a t i v e s o r a c t i v i t i e s . A h i g h p r o p o r t i o n o f urban incomes f l o w t o r u r a l a r e a s a n n u a l l y i n t h i s form. E v i d e n c e from Kenya and T a n z a n i a i n d i c a t e t h a t some 21$ o f t h e wage b i l l s o f m i d d l e - and low-income u r b a n i t e s a r e i n v o l v e d i n t h i s t r a n s - f e r (Johnson and W h i t e l a w , 1969). No e v a l u a t i o n o f t h e s i t u a t i o n i n N i g e r i a has been r e p o r t e d , but i t i s q u i t e l i k e l y t h a t t h i s f i g u r e i s a r e a l i s t i c r e p r e s e n t a t i o n o f t h e N i g e r i a n e x p e r i e n c e . R e m i t t a n c e s form p a r t o f an i m p o r t a n t f e e d b a c k loop l i n k i n g urban w i t h r u r a l a r e a s . P e o p l e from r u r a l a r e a s m i g r a t e t o t h e urban s e c t o r , become employed, and send p a r t o f t h e i r e a r n i n g s back t o t h e i r r u r a l o r i g i n s t o r e i n f o r c e t h e same p r o c e s s e s t h a t b r o u g h t them t o t h e c i t y ( s u c h as e d u c a - t i o n o f younger r e l a t i v e s ) . T h i s way t h e urban employment v a r i a b l e s send p o s i t i v e f e e d b a c k i m p u l s e s ( i n t h i s c a s e money) t o r u r a l a r e a s t o ' i n f l u e n c e t h e e d u c a t i o n v a r i a b l e and RUM from which t h e loop r e t u r n s t o t h e urban s e c t o r ( F i g u r e 4.3). F i g u r e 4.3 •URBAN-RURAL FEEDBACK LOOPS: REMITTANCES- - 69 - Not a l l t h e e f f e c t s o f RMT a r e such as t o promote r u r a l - u r b a n m i g r a t i o n . In some c a s e s t h e y o p e r a t e as a form o f s u b s i d y t o r u r a l p e o p l e t o keep them from j o i n i n g r e l a t i v e s i n t h e urban s e c t o r and t h e r e b y _ • d e p r e s s i n g t o t a l f a m i l y e a r n i n g s a t ' l e a s t f o r some- t i m e . There a r e a l s o s i t u a t i o n s i n w h i c h t h e impact o f r e m i t t a n c e s on t h e r u r a l s e c t o r i s h a r d t o a s s i g n . Few w i l l c o n t e s t t h e c l a i m t h a t r e m i t t a n c e s have been a major f a c t o r i n community development e f f o r t s i n many p a r t s o f N i g e r i a . R e f e r e n c e has e a r l i e r been made t o t h e r o l e o f urban e t h n i c a s s o c i a t i o n s i n p r o m o t i n g t h e w e l f a r e o f t h e i r r u r a l o r i g i n s ( L i t t l e , 1965). Such p r o m o t i o n a l a c t i v i t i e s o f t e n t a k e t h e form o f c r e a t i n g some urban s e r v i c e s i n t h e r u r a l a r e a s . They make major c o n t r i b u t i o n s i n t e r m s o f f i n a n c i a l s u p p o r t and l e a d e r s h i p i n such p r o j e c t s as r u r a l w a t e r s u p p l y , r u r a j e l e c t r i f i c a t i o n , h o u s i n g , road c o n s t r u c t i o n , m a r k e t , s c h o o l and h e a l t h c l i n i c d e v e l o p m e n t s , e t c . Thus r e m i t t a n c e s p l a y a p a r t i n making r u r a l a r e a s more a t t r a c t i v e p l a c e s i n w h i c h t o l i v e . B u t , i t i s not c l e a r w hether t h i s k i n d o f e f f o r t promotes r u r a l - u r b a n m i g r a t i o n by g i v i n g a- l a r g e number o f p e o p l e some f o r e t a s t e o f urban l i f e , o r r e t a r d s i t by making r u r a l a r e a s more a t t r a c t i v e l i v i n g p l a c e s . T h i s i s a s u b j e c t t h a t w i l l b e a r some c a r e f u l e m p i r i c a l i n v e s t i g a t i o n . P r e s u m a b l y , a t t h e i n i t i a l s t a g e s r u r a l development promotes o u t - m i g r a t i o n , but as urban c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s become more e s t a b l i s h e d t h e o p p o s i t e e f f e c t may p'rove t o be t h e c a s e . One l a s t p o i n t t h a t s h o u l d be made here i s t h a t i t a p p e a r s r e a s o n a b l e t o e x p e c t t h a t w i t h i n f l a t i o n , f a l l i n g r e a l v a l u e s o f urban incomes, and r i s i n g c o s t s o f urban l i v i n g , t h e r e w i l l be a s e r i o u s e r o s i o n o f t h e Impact o f r e m i t t a n c e s on r u r a l a r e a s . T h i s - w i I I l e a v e a vacuum w h i c h may r e q u i r e p o l i c y i n t e r v e n t i o n t o f i l l . RMT i t s e l f i s a f u n c t i o n o f f o u r s y s t e m v a r i a b l e s : urban e d u c a t e d - 7 0 - employed ( 5 7 ) ; urban uneducated e m p l o y e d - ( 5 8 ) ; urban uneducated unemployed . • I ( 6 9 ) ; and urban e d u c a t e d unemployed ( 5 6 ) . The two urban employed s t o c k v a r i a b l e s have a p o s i t i v e i n f l u e n c e upon RMT; b u t ' t h e two unemployed s t o c k s have a n e g a t i v e e f f e c t s i n c e urban r e l a t i v e s have t o c o n t r i b u t e t o t h e upkeep- of t h e unemployed. Thus RMT = f(UUU, UEU, UUE, UEE) b) U r b a n - R u r a l Communication (URC) - T h i s v a r i a b l e may be d e f i n e d as t h e r a t e o f i n f o r m a t i o n t r a n s f e r from urban t o r u r a l a r e a s . I n f o r m a t i o n a b out t h e c o n d i t i o n s i n t h e urban s e c t o r i s a v i t a l i n p u t i n t h e d e c i s i o n o f a r u r a l p e r s o n t o m i g r a t e o r r e m a i n . In t h e N i g e r i a n e n v i r o n m e n t such i n f o r m a t i o n i s t r a n s m i t t e d t h r o u g h s e v e r a l means: t h e mass media ( r a d i o , newspapers and m a g a z i n e s ) ; p e r s o n a l v i s i t s from and t o urban a r e a s ; c o r r e s p o n d e n c e ; and t r a d i n g c o n t a c t s . Two d i m e n s i o n s t o i n f o r m a t i o n may be r e c o g n i z e d . The f i r s t i s t h e q u a n t i t y o f i n f o r m a t i o n b e i n g t r a n s m i t t e d , which i s a f u n c t i o n o f t h e l e v e l o f development o f t h e means o f t r a n s m i s s i o n ( e g . , newspaper c i r c u l a - t i o n , and t h e number o f v i s i t s by u r b a n i t e s p e r annum). P r e s u m a b l y t h e g r e a t e r t h e q u a n t i t y o f i n f o r m a t i o n about urban c o n d i t i o n s r e a c h i n g r u r a l p e o p l e , t h e more w i l l t h e i r m i g r a t o r y b e h a v i o u r be c o n s i s t e n t l y r e l a t e d t o t h e r e a l i t y o f t h e urban s e c t o r and v i c e v e r s a . The second d i m e n s i o n o f i n f o r m a t i o n i s qua I i t y w h i c h r e f e r s t o t h e c o n t e n t o f t h e i n f o r m a t i o n b e i n g t r a n s m i t t e d . I t can be n e g a t i v e o r p o s i - t i v e i n f o r m a t i o n . R u r a l p e o p l e a r e r a t i o n a l p e o p l e ; t h e y w i l l r e spond a p p r o p r i a t e l y t o both p o s i t i v e and n e g a t i v e urban s i g n a l s . " I f t h e i n f o r m a t i o n from a p a r t i c u l a r c i t y d w e l l s a t l e n g t h on t h e n e g a t i v e s i d e o f urban l i f e , on t h e d i f f i c u l t i e s o f g e t t i n g j o b s , o f f i n d i n g a p l a c e t o l i v e , and on t h e g e n e r a l h o s t i l i t y o f p e o p l e , - 71 - t h e e f f e c t o f t h i s n e g a t i v e f e e d b a c k w i l l s l o w down f u r t h e r m i g r a t i o n from t h e v i l l a g e t o t h i s ' c i t y ' . By c o n t r a s t , f a v o u r a b l e o r p o s i t i v e f e e d b a c k w i l l e n c o urage m i g r a t i o n and w i l l p r oduce s i t u a t i o n s o f a l m o s t o r g a n i z e d m i g r a t o r y f l o w s from p a r t i c u l a r v i l l a g e s t o p a r t i c u l a r c i t i e s ..." (Mabogunje, 1970: 12-13) I t i s t h i s q u a l i t a t i v e a s p e c t o f i n f o r m a t i o n t h a t i s a f u n c t i o n o f t h e urban s y s t e m v a r i a b l e s : urban uneducated unemployed (28)^; urban uneducated employed ( 4 4 ) ; urban uneducated I a b o u r . f r a n s f o r m a t i o n ( 6 0 ) ; urban e d u c a t e d unemployed ( 3 6 ) ; urban e d u c a t e d employed ( 5 0 ) ; and urban e d u c a t e d l a b o u r t r a n s f o r m a t i o n ( 6 7 ) . F u n c t i o n a l l y , we have URC = f(UUU, UEU, UUE, UEE, UULT, UELT) c ) U r b a n - R u r a l M i g r a t i o n o r R e v e r s e M i g r a t i o n (URM) T h i s v a r i a b l e may. be d e f i n e d as t h e annual r a t e o f " r e v e r s e " m i g r a t i o n . At t h e p r e s e n t v e r y l i t t l e i s known, o r w r i t t e n , about t h e n a t u r e o f r e v e r s e m i g r a t i o n i n t r o p i c a l A f r i c a . I t i s not known, f o r i n s t a n c e how l a r g e t h e f l o w i s , what i t s c o m p o s i t i o n i s , . o r what e f f e c t s i t has. In t h e s e c i r c u m s t a n c e s one can o n l y p o s t u l a t e on t h e b a s i s o f i n t u i t i o n and a s e n s e o f t h e r e a s o n a b l e . R e t u r n m i g r a t i o n s t r e a m i s made up o f r e t i r i n g urban p e o p l e and perhaps a l a r g e r and g r o w i n g number o f p e o p l e who f a i l e d t o e s t a b l i s h a f o o t h o l d i n t h e c i t y . So t h e v a r i a b l e i s a f u n c t i o n o f a l l f o u r urban s t o c k v a r i a b l e s : urban uneducated unemployed ( 3 4 ) ; urban uneducated employed ( 4 6 ) ; urban e d u c a t e d unemployed ( 3 8 ) ; and urban e d u c a t e d employed ( 6 5 ) . Each o f them has a p o s i t i v e e f f e c t upon URM. From t h e r u r a l s i d e , a l l f o u r s t o c k v a r i a b l e s a f f e c t r e v e r s e m i g r a - t i o n : r u r a l u neducated unemployed ( 6 ) ; r u r a l uneducated employed ( 6 a ) ; r u r a l e d u c a t e d unemployed ( 1 4 ) ; and r u r a l e d u c a t e d employed ( 2 4 ) . The - 72 unemployment v a r i a b l e s w i l l have n e g a t i v e e f f e c t s upon URM, w h i l e t h e \ employment v a r i a b l e s w i l l have a p o s i t i v e one. If.more p e o p l e a r e b e i n g employed i n t h e r u r a l a r e a t h e r e w i l l n o t be much p o i n t i n r e m a i n i n g unemployed f o r t o o long i n t h e urban a r e a . URM e x e r t s two k i n d s o f i n f l u e n c e s on t h e r u r a l s e c t o r . One i s t h e e f f e c t on t h e r a t e o f change o f r u r a l s t o c k v a r i a b l e s . The o t h e r i s an i n f o r m a t i o n e f f e c t which o p e r a t e s t h r o u g h URC. P e o p l e who r e t i r e t o t h e r u r a l a r e a a f t e r a s u c c e s s f u l urban w o r k i n g l i f e spend much o f t h e i r l e i s u r e t i m e s e l l i n g c i t y i j i f e s t y l e s t o r u r a l p e o p l e , s i n g i n g t h e p r a i s e o f t h e c i t y . T h i s can r e s u l t i n t h e c r e a t i o n o f a f a v o u r a b l e image o f urban l i f e i n t h e minds o f young p e o p l e who a r e • p o t e n t i a l m i g r a n t s . An o p p o s i t e e f f e c t i s c r e a t e d by t h o s e who f a i l e d i n t h e c i t y . T h i s group may have v e r y few p o s i t i v e i m p r e s s i o n s a b out urban l i f e t o convey. • They s t a n d as c o n s t a n t r e m i n d e r s t o r u r a l p e o p l e t h a t t h e d e c i s i o n t o m i g r a t e c a r r i e s w i t h i t t h e r i s k o f f a i l u r e . The r a t e o f r u r a l - u r b a n m i g r a t i o n may, t o t h a t e x t e n t , be d i m i n i s h e d . S u mmarizing t h e n , URM = f(UUU, UUE, UEU, UEE, RUU, RUE, REU, REE) 4.1J6 R u r a l - U r b a n M i g r a t i o n as R a t e V a r i a b l e RUM i s a r a t e v a r i a b l e , j u s t l i k e any o f t h e o t h e r r a t e v a r i a b l e s i n t h e s y s t e m , and may be d e f i n e d as t h e annual r a t e o f movement o f r u r a l p e o p l e t o urban a r e a s f o r t h e purpose o f permanent r e s i d e n c e . S i n c e i t i s t h e v a r i a b l e o f major c o n c e r n h e r e , t h i s s e c t i o n w i l l be d e v o t e d t o a more e x t e n d e d d i s c u s s i o n o f i t s r e l a t i o n s h i p s and b e h a v i o u r i n t h e s y s t e m . D i s c u s s i o n i n t h i s c h a p t e r so f a r shows t h a t . ...... I RUM = f(RUU, REU, RUE, REE, RMT, URC) ' -:- T h a t i s t o say t h a t i n t h e s y s t e m RUM i s a f u n c t i o n o f s i x v a r i a b l e s : r u r a l u neducated unemployed (2).; r u r a l e d u c a t e d unemployed ( 8 ) ; r u r a l u neducated employed ( 1 6 ) ; r u r a l e d u c a t e d employed ( 2 2 ) ; r e m i t t a n c e s ( 5 5 ) ; and u r b a n - r u r a l c o m m unication ( 2 8 a ) . One d e d u c t i o n which may be made from t h i s o b s e r v a t i o n i s t h a t a s i n g l e - v a r i a b l e p o l i c y i n t e r v e n t i o n t o c o n t r o l RUM i s u n l i k e l y t o make a d e c i s i v e i m p r e s s i o n , and t h a t what i s more l i k e l y t o s u c c e e d i s a m u l t i p l e - v a r i a b l e p o l i c y i n v o l v i n g t h e most s e n s i t i v e p o l i c y . i n t e r v e n t i o n p o i n t s . a) RUM and R u r a l Unemployment V a r i a b l e s The two s t o c k v a r i a b l e s i n v o l v e d here a r e RUU and REU. Both v a r i a b l e s have p o s i t i v e e f f e c t s upon RUM, i . e . , t h e g r e a t e r t h e a c c u m u l a t i o n o f r u r a l unemployed t h e g r e a t e r t h e r a t e of m i g r a t i o n . The r e a s o n i s t h a t t h e g r e a t e r t h e pool o f t h e unemployed, t h e g r e a t e r t h e p r e s s u r e on r u r a l o p p o r t u n i t i e s , . and t h e r e f o r e , t h e g r e a t e r t h e number o f p e o p l e who w i l l e l e c t t o t r y t h e i r Iuck e I s e w h e r e . Of c o u r s e t h e above i s a r a t h e r s i m p l i s t i c p r e s e n t a t i o n o f what a c t u a l l y happens. How much p o s i t i v e impact t h e s e unemployment s t o c k v a r i a b l e s w i l l have on RUM depends on c o n d i t i o n s - i n t h e urban s e c t o r . The . urban s e c t o r i s not a k i n d o f b o t t o m l e s s r e s e r v o i r f o r e v e r r e c e i v i n g more and more m i g r a n t s . R a t h e r i t has t h e c a p a c i t y o f t r a n s m i t t i n g f e e d b a c k i m p u l s e s (URC) t h a t put a c heck on RUM and t h e e f f e c t i v e n e s s o f r u r a l unemployment v a r i a b l e s t o i n f l u e n c e RUM. b) RUM and R u r a l Employment S t o c k V a r i a b l e s The two v a r i a b l e s i n v o l v e d h e r e , R u r a l Uneducated Employed and R u r a l - 74 " Educated Employed grow by t a k i n g up r u r a l unemployed p e o p l e who o t h e r w i s e would p r o b a b l y have ended up as r u r a l - u r b a n m i g r a n t s . They t h e r e f o r e s h o u l d have a n e g a t i v e e f f e c t upon RUM. In o t h e r w o r d s / t h e l a r g e r RUE and REE become r e l a t i v e t o RUU and REU t h e lower RUM becomes and v i c e v e r s a . • r In many p a r t s o f N i g e r i a t o d a y i t i s q u i t e p r o b a b l e t h a t t h e s i z e s o f RUE and REE a r e d e c l i n i n g and t h a t RUM i s t o t h a t e x t e n t on t h e i n c r e a s e . c ) RUM and R u r a l Employment G e n e r a t i o n V a r i a b l e s I t a p p e a r s i n t u i t i v e l y o b v i o u s t h a t , c e t e r i s p a r i b u s , t h e t h r e e v a r i a b l e s REG, RULT and RELT have a n e g a t i v e r e l a t i o n s h i p w i t h RUM. The l a r g e r t h e number o f j o b s c r e a t e d and t a k e n up i n t h e r u r a l a r e a s , t h e s m a l l e r t h e r a t e o f r u r a l - u r b a n m i g r a t i o n , RUM. As n o t e d e l s e w h e r e t h e s e r u r a l employment g e n e r a t i o n v a r i a b l e s a r e v e r y i n f l u e n t i a l p o l i c y i n t e r - v e n t i o n p o i n t s because t h e i r o p e r a t i o n t o u c h e s on a l l r u r a l s t o c k v a r i a b l e s and RUM. d) R u r a l E d u c a t i o n V a r i a b l e R u r a l e d u c a t i o n does not a f f e c t RUM d i r e c t l y but o n l y i n d i r e c t l y . I t e x e r t s i t s p o w e r f u l i n f l u e n c e t h r o u g h a f f e c t i n g t h e l e v e l s o f t h e two r u r a l e d u c a t e d s t o c k v a r i a b l e s , REU and REE, both o f w h i c h p l a y a p a r t i n t h e d e c i s i o n t o m i g r a t e t o t h e c i t y . However t h e f a c t t h a t e d u c a t i o n a f f e c t s RUM i n d i r e c t l y s h o u l d not d e t r a c t from t h e i m p o r t a n c e o f t h e m o d e r n i z a t i o n - e d u c a t i o n - r u r a l - u r b a n m i g r a t i o n syndrome d e s c r i b e d i n s e c t i o n 4.1.4. In t h e s o c i o - p o l i t i c a l e n v i r o n m e n t o f N i g e r i a t h e a c q u i s i t i o n o f f o r m a l e d u c a t i o n i s seen as t h e most i m p o r t a n t and most d i r e c t avenue t o modern l i v i n g ; and modern l i v i n g i s a l m o s t synonymous w i t h urban l i v i n g . In an i m p o r t a n t way, g o i n g t o - 75 - s c h o o l i s p a r t o f t h e p r e p a r a t i o n f o r g o i n g t o t h e c i t y . e) RUM and Urban Unemployment S t o c k V a r i a b l e s The r e l a t i o n s h i p between RUM and t h e urban unemployment s t o c k v a r i a b l e s i s a c l e a r c a s e o f f e e d b a c k l o o p . RUM d i r e c t l y a f f e c t s t h e l e v e l s o f t h e s e s t o c k v a r i a b l e s ; t h e n i n f o r m a t i o n about t h e l e v e l s o f t h e s t o c k s i s r e l a y e d back t o RUM t h r o u g h URC, and RUM i s t h e r e b y a f f e c t e d . One o f t h e l o o p s i s shown i n F i g u r e 4.4. r - 28a - ->(RUM ) URC ) 315 L,_36-_ UEU F i g u r e 4.4 RUM-URBAN UNEMPLOYMENT FEEDBACK LOOP Thus t h e e f f e c t o f urban unemployment s t o c k s upon RUM i s i n t h e form o f f e e d b a c k messages w h i c h may be p o s i t i v e o r n e g a t i v e . In t h e N i g e r i a n s i t u a t i o n t o d a y i t a p p e a r s t h a t t h e f e e d b a c k messages a r e becoming i n c r e a s i n g l y n e g a t i v e p a r t i c u l a r l y f o r p r i m a r y - s c h o o l g r a d - u a t e s , and t h e r e i s no rea s o n t o e x p e c t t h a t , i f p r e s e n t t r e n d s c o n t i n u e , h i g h s c h o o l and u n i v e r s i t y g r a d u a t e s w i l l not be a f f e c t e d as w e l l . T h r e e k i n d s o f r e s p o n s e s t o t h e s e h i g h unemployment c o n d i t i o n s may be i d e n t i f i e d . Many more p e o p l e d e c i d e t o s t a y on i n t h e r u r a l a r e a s r a t h e r t h a n go f o r l o n g p e r i o d s o f unemployment i n t h e urban a r e a . Among t h o s e who do m i g r a t e , most o f them s c a l e down t h e i r o c c u p a t i o n a l e x p e c t a t i o n s when c o n f r o n t e d w i t h p r o l o n g e d unemployment. - 76 - "Long-term unemployment has had a pronounced e f f e c t upon o c c u p a - t i o n a l c a r e e r p r e f e r e n c e s , b e i n g m o d e r a t l y a s s o c i a t e d w i t h lower s t a t u s c h o i c e s among p r i m a r y s c h o o l - l e a v e r s and more s t r o n g l y a s s o c i a t e d w i t h such c h o i c e s among s e c o n d a r y s c h o o l l e a v e r s . P r e s u m ably t h e l o n g e r t h e s e y o u t h s were unemployed t h e more t h e y p e r c e i v e d t h e i r o p p o r t u n i t i e s t o a c h i e v e t h e i r o c c u p a t i o n a l g o a l s as d i m i n i s h i n g . " (McQueen, 1969: 452) Even a f t e r s c a l i n g down t h e i r o c c u p a t i o n a l p r e f e r e n c e s , some s t i l l do n o t f i n d ' any t a k e r s . They a r e t h e urban f a i l u r e s : some r e t u r n t o t h e r u r a l a r e a ; t h e m a j o r i t y however, do n o t have t h e d e s i r e o r c o u r a g e t o do s o . From t h e above i t i s p r o b a b l y f a i r t o deduce t h a t most r e t u r n i n g m i g r a n t s w i l l be more r e c e p t i v e o f r u r a l s t a n d a r d s o f l i v i n g , more p e r c e p - t i v e o f r u r a l p o s s i b i l i t i e s , and a l s o more d e t e r m i n e d t o eke o u t an e x i s t e n c e i n t h e r u r a l s e c t o r . I f t h i s i s c o r r e c t i t may w e l l be t h a t r e t u r n m i g r a t i o n w i l l c r e a t e an a p p r o p r i a t e e n v i r o n m e n t i n which t o launch a major r u r a l -development program. H a v i n g loo k e d a t t h e e f f e c t o f urban unemployment v a r i a b l e s on RUM, l e t us t u r n t o t h e e f f e c t o f RUM on t h e s e same v a r i a b l e s . The p r o b l e m s stemming from a c c e l e r a t i n g urban growth i n l e s s d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s i s now f u l l y documented. A l a r g e p r o p o r t i o n o f t h i s phenomenal growth i s a t t r i b u - t a b l e t o RUM and i t i s m a i n l y t h r o u g h i t s e f f e c t upon t h e ' u r b a n unemployment s t o c k v a r i a b l e s t h a t RUM b r i n g s t h i s growth a b o u t . P e r h a p s t h i s systems a p p r o a c h t o a f a m i l i a r p r o b l e m a l l o w s one t o l o o k a t i t i n a new, and b r o a d e r , p e r s p e c t i v e . f ) RUM and Urban Employment S t o c k V a r i a b l e s Once a g a i n t h e i n f l u e n c e o f employment v a r i a b l e s here on RUM i s e x e r t e d t h r o u g h f e e d b a c k l o o p s . H a r r i s and Todaro (1969) r e f e r r e d t o t h e phenomenon o f " i n d u c e d " r u r a l - u r b a n m i g r a t i o n , which d e s c r i b e s a s i t u a t i o n where e v e r y - 77 - a d d i t i o n a l urban i n d u s t r i a l j o b a t t r a c t s ' m o r e t h a n one m i g r a n t . t o t h e c i t y . But how much inducement an a d d i t i o n a l urban j o b c r e a t e s a t t h e p r e s e n t i s unknown. What seems c l e a r i s t h a t i n f o r m a t i o n a b out t h e c r e a t i o n o f a d d i t i o n a l urban j o b s has a p o s i t i v e e f f e c t on RUMi. So one s h o u l d e x p e c t t o f i n d a p o s i t i v e r e l a t i o n s h i p between RUM and t h e r a t e o f change o f urban employment v a r i a b l e s . There a r e some p e o p l e who a r e h i r e d i n r u r a l a r e a s t o t a k e up urban j o b s w i t h o u t g o i n g t h r o u g h a p e r i o d o f unemployment. T h i s makes i t p o s s i b l f o r RUM t o a f f e c t t h e urban employment s t o c k s d i r e c t l y . • T h i s i s becoming i n c r e a s i n g l y u n u s u a l . Most new m i g r a n t s i n N i g e r i a t o d a y w i l l p a s s t h r o u g h a l e n g t h e n i n g p e r i o d o f unemployment, so t h a t RUM e x e r t s i t s i n f l u e n c e upon employment s t o c k v a r i a b l e s by way o f t h e o p e r a t i o n o f t h e urban employment g e n e r a t i o n v a r i a b l e and urban l a b o u r t r a n s f o r m a t i o n v a r i a b l e s . g) RUM and Urban Feedback E f f e c t s From t h e s t a n d p o i n t o f t h e systems a p p r o a c h a d o p t e d h e r e , t h i s r e l a t i o n s h i p r e p r e s e n t s one o f t h e more f a s c i n a t i n g a s p e c t s o f t h e s t u d y o f r u r a l - u r b a n m i g r a t i o n . However t h e r e I a t i o n s h i p . h a s p r e v i o u s l y been d i s c u s s e d i n s e c t i o n 4.1.5. 4 .1.7 The E n v i r o n m e n t o f t h e System a) Government A c t i v i t y and P o I i c y - M a k i n g Powers .The q u e s t i o n o f r u r a I - u r b a n m i g r a t i o n and what can be done t o c o n t r o l i t i s v e r y much i n t h e a r e a o f p u b l i c p o l i c y . T h i s i s even more so i n l e s s - d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s where governments p l a y a l a r g e r o l e i n a l m o s t a l l a s p e c t s o f n a t i o n a l l i f e . The system o f which RUM i s a p a r t i s s e n s i t i v e t o a wide range o f - 78 - government a c t i v i t y i n t h e a r e a s o f a g r i c u l t u r e , i n d u s t r y , t r a n s p o r t and c o m m u n i c a t i o n , e d u c a t i o n , e t c . These a c t i v i t i e s t h e r e f o r e form p a r t o f t h e e n v i r o n m e n t w i t h i n which t h e s y s t e m o p e r a t e s . In l o o k i n g a t t h e f u t u r e what i s perhaps m o r e - s i g n i f i c a n t t h a n t h e f a c t t h a t government c a r r i e s o u t a c t i v i t i e s t h a t impinge upon t h e s y s t e m i s t h e power of government t o d e s i g n p o l i c i e s s p e c i f i c a l l y d i r e c t e d t o w a r d s b r i n g i n g a b o u t d e s i r e d change w i t h i n i t . I f t h e r e i s g e n u i n e commitment on t h e p a r t o f d e c i s i o n - m a k e r s i n N i g e r i a t o do s o m e t h i n g t o i n f l u e n c e t h e - r a t e o f r u r a l - u r b a n m i g r a t i o n t h e r e i s p r o b a b l y a chance t o a c h i e v e a -measure o f s u c c e s s . I f , however, t h e a u t h o r i t i e s a r e o n l y i n t e r e s t e d i n r h e t o r i c , t h e r e w i l l be v e r y l i t t l e chance o f coming t o g r i p s w i t h t h i s v e r y complex m a t t e r . b) The Demographic S i t u a t i o n N i g e r i a has a p o p u l a t i o n o f o v e r 60 m i l l i o n w hich i s g r o w i n g a t an annual r a t e o f 2-3$. O p i n i o n i s d i v i d e d as t o whether t h e p o p u l a t i o n , a v e r y young p o p u l a t i o n , p r e s e n t s any major p r o b l e m i n coming t o g r i p s w i t h r u r a l - u r b a n m i g r a t i o n and mass urban unemployment. " P o p u l a t i o n s o f t h e new A f r i c a n n a t i o n s a r e becoming younger - w i t h 35 t o 40 p e r c e n t now under t h e age o f 15. ... Can economic development more t h a n keep a b r e a s t o f t h e r i s i n g p o p u l a t i o n o f , s a y , two p e r c e n t e v e r y y e a r ? And r e l a t e d t o t h i s , can t h e a d m i n i s t r a t i v e a b i l i t y be d e v e l o p e d ... t o p r o v i d e t h e o p p o r t u n - i t i e s f o r t r a i n i n g and c o n s t r u c t i v e work so e a g e r l y s o u g h t by t h e y o u n g e r g e n e r a t i o n ? ( C a l l a w a y , 1963: 353) i n A f r i c a , t h e e x i s t i n g r a t e o f p o p u l a t i o n growth and t h e " d e n s i t y o f p o p u l a t i o n p e r s q u a r e m i l e do n o t , i n t h e words o f t h e N i g e r i a n F e d e r a l Government, ' c a l l f o r emergency o r p a n i c a c t i o n ' . The c o n t i n e n t can s u c c e e d i n b u y i n g t i m e t o ward o f f undue p o p u l a - t i o n p r e s s u r e . The r e d i s t r i b u t i o n and movements o f A f r i c a ' s p o p u l a t i o n , w h i c h r e f l e c t r e l a t i v e economic o p p o r t u n i t i e s , o f f e r e d f o r example by economic a s s o c i a t i o n o r i n t e g r a t i o n , a r e p r o b a b l y much more i m p o r t a n t i n t h e s h o r t r u n , as w e l l as i n t h e long r u n , - 79 - t h a n t h e a g g r e g a t e s i z e o f t h e p o p u l a t i o n i n t h e c o n t i n e n t . " ( A l u k o , 1971: 561-75) I t would a p p e a r t h a t A l u k o i s t o o o p t i m i s t i c about t h e problems p o p u l a t i o n growth can p r e s e n t i n d e a l i n g w i t h i s s u e s such as mass unemploy- ment and r u r a l - u r b a n m i g r a t i o n . There a r e c l e a r a d v a n t a g e s i n p o p u l a t i o n growth c o n t r o l : t h e s c a l e o f human problems t o be c o n f r o n t e d becomes more manageable; a d d i t i o n a l l y , t h e r e i s r e d u c t i o n i n unwanted b i r t h s . A l o n g - t e r m s o l u t i o n t o t h e pro b l e m o f r u r a l - u r b a n m i g r a t i o n and t h e a s s o c i a t e d y o u t h unemployment c a n n o t a f f o r d t o n e g l e c t t h e s e demographic f a c t o r s . c ) Economic Development and M o d e r n i z a t i o n Most o f N i g e r i a was c o m p l e t e l y r u r a l b e f o r e t h e p r e s e n c e o f European -peoples. Upon a r r i v a l ' , t h e s e c o l o n i z i n g powers i n i t i a t e d urban s e t t l e m e n t s , e s t a b l i s h i n g a d m i n i s t r a t i o n and t r a d e , b u i l d i n g r o a d s , r a i l w a y s , c h u r c h e s -and s c h o o l s , h o s p i t a l s and s e t t i n g i n t o motion t h e f o r c e s o f economic development and m o d e r n i z a t i o n . These f o r c e s i n t u r n s e t i n t o m o t i o n t h e p r o c e s s o f m i g r a t i o n from r u r a l , i s o l a t e d c o m m u n i t i e s t o urban a r e a s . Upon t h e a c h i e v e m e n t o f p o l i t i c a l i n d e pendence, t h e new l e a d e r s pushed ahead t h e same k i n d o f p o l i c i e s o f economic development and m o d e r n i z a t i o n ( e g . , t h e e x p a n s i o n i n t h e s i x t i e s o f i n d u s t r i a l a c t i v i t i e s i n s e v e r a l urban c e n t r e s , n o t a b l y . Lagos, P o r t H a r c o u r t , O n i t s h a and Kano; o r t h e u n i v e r s a l p r i m a r y e d u c a t i o n . p o l i c i e s o f t h e governments o f e a s t e r n and w e s t e r n N i g e r i a ) , and t h e m i g r a t i o n s t r e a m s from r u r a l t o urban a r e a s have become s t r o n g e r and w e l l e s t a b l i s h e d . I t w i l l appear, t h a t t h e s e f o r c e s a r e a major i n f l u e n c e upon t h e r u r a l - u r b a n m i g r a t i o n p r o c e s s and s h o u l d be r e c o g n i z e d as an i m p o r t a n t e l e m e n t o f t h e s y s t e m e n v i r o n m e n t . - 80 - d) I n t e r n a t i o n a l R e l a t i o n s i T h r e e a s p e c t s o f t h e r e I a t i o n s , between N i g e r i a and t h e o u t s i d e w o r l d may be i d e n t i f i e d a s a s i g n i f i c a n t p a r t o f t h e env-i ronment o f t h e RUM- r e l a t e d s y s tem. | i ) I n t e r n a t i o n a l b o u n d a r i e s and t h e i r e f f e c t s i n e n c o u r a g i n g .or d i s c o u r - a g i n g m i g r a t i o n , t h r o u g h t h e i r impact on urban and r u r a l unemployment s t o c k v a r i a b l e s . i i ) I n t e r n a t i o n a l t r a d e and demand f o r r u r a l p r o d u c t s a n d . m a n u f a c t u r e d goods. i i i ) I n t e r n a t i o n a l f l o w o f w e a l t h and i d e a s ( f o r e i g n i n v e s t m e n t c a p i t a l ; exchange o f e x p e r i e n c e s i n d e a l i n g w i t h s i m i l a r p r o b l e m s ; d i f f u s i o n o f f o r e i g n • I i f e s t y I e s , e t c . ) . 4.2 A dvantages o f t h e Systems Approach 4.2.1 A H o l i s t i c V i e w p o i n t The s ystems a p p r o a c h a d o p t e d i n t h i s s t u d y has a t t e m p t e d t o p u l l t o g e t h e r some o f t h e d i f f e r e n t p a r t i a l v i e w p o i n t s t h a t i s c h a r a c t e r i s t i c o f most c o n t r i b u t i o n s ' i n r u r a l - u r b a n m i g r a t i o n l i t e r a t u r e . One o f t h e more common models i n r u r a l - u r b a n m i g r a t i o n i s what.may be d e s c r i b e d as t h e u r b a n - r u r a l income d i f f e r e n t i a l model which i s founded upon t h e h y p o t h e s i s t h a t t h e most i m p o r t a n t e x p l a n a t o r y f a c t o r i n r u r a l - u r b a n m i g r a t i o n b e h a v i o u r i s t h e h i g h e r a v e r a g e income o f t h e urban a r e a ( H a r r i s and T o d a r o , 1970; T o d a r o , 1971; J o h n s o n , 1971). L e t us c o n s i d e r a h y p o t h e t i c a l r e g i o n where o v e r t i m e a few w e a l t h y p e o p l e have bought o u t a l a r g e number o f s m a l l e r f a r m e r s and have a d o p t e d a h i g h l y mechanized form o f a g r i c u l t u r e . A few p e o p l e w i l l be employed on t h e s e farms a t f a i r l y h i g h w,ages and t h e r e s t o f t h e p e o p l e presumably w i l l m i g r a t e t o urban a r e a s . The income d i f f e r e n t i a l t y p e o f model c a n n o t a d e q u a t e l y d e a l w i t h a s i t u a t i o n such as t h i s , b u t / a systems approach' c a n . In o u r own p a r t i c u l a r model such a s i t u a t i o n w i l l be r e f l e c t e d by t h e r u r a l l a b o u r t r a n s f o r m a t i o n v a r i a b l e s . A n o t h e r c l a s s o f models i s t h a t which p u t s heavy emphasis upon t h e e f f e c t o f d i s t a n c e o r f r i c t i o n ( i n i t s v a r i o u s forms) on m i g r a t o r y beha- v i o u r , a g a i n p r e s e n t i n g o n l y a p a r t i a l p i c t u r e o f t h e r e a l - w o r l d s y s tem. The q u e s t i o n o f d i s t a n c e can be t r e a t e d as p a r t o f |he r e l a t i o n s h i p Ibetween r u r a l unemployment s t o c k v a r i a b l e s and RUM when t h e f l o w s between p a r t i c u l a r o r i g i n s and d e s t i n a t i o n s a r e under c o n s i d e r a t i o n . In t h e model t h e e f f e c t o f d i s t a n c e ( o r f r i c t i o n ) i s subsumed i n t h e RUM p r o c e s s . RUM i s p a r t o f a complex r e a l - w o r l d s y s t e m and c a n n o t be p r o p e r l y u n d e r s t o o d o r d e a l t w i t h i n terms o f p a r t i a l a n a l y s e s . A systems a p p r o a c h , s u c h as i s a d o p t e d h e r e , a t t e m p t s t o p r e s e n t a more h o l i s t i c v i e w . 4.2.2 T r e a t m e n t o f System Feedback E f f e c t s ' * The e x p l i c i t t r e a t m e n t o f f e e d b a c k r e l a t i o n s h i p s i s a n o t h e r major a d v a n t a g e o f t h e systems a p p r o a c h . The r o l e o f f e e d b a c k impu Ises i n conditioning b e h a v i o u r w i t h i n a s y s t e m i s a v i t a l one p a r t i c u l a r l y i f t h e dynamic a s p e c t s o f t h e b e h a v i o u r a r e t o be u n d e r s t o o d . The i n c o r p o r a t i o n o f f e e d b a c k r e l a t i o n s h i p s i n a systems model r e c o g n i z e s t h e i m p o r t a n c e o f t h e need t o u n d e r s t a n d t h e dynamics o f r u r a l - u r b a n m i g r a t i o n as a b a s i s f o r more r e a l i s t i c p o l i c i e s . 4.2.3 Pol i c y G e n e r a t i o n P l a n n e r s a r e not j u s t c o n c e r n e d w i t h an u n d e r s t a n d i n g o f r u r a l - u r b a n - 82 - m i g r a t i o n b e h a v i o u r f o r i t s own s a k e ; t h e y l o o k t o such u n d e r s t a n d i n g as a . 1 b a s i s f o r p o l i c y and a c t i o n . \ 1 The systems approach has t h e p o t e n t i a l t o p r e s e n t a wide range o f i p o l i c y i n t e r v e n t i o n p o i n t s w h i c h i s o f c o n s i d e r a b l y use i n t h e f o r m a t i o n o f p o l i c y a l t e r n a t i v e s . T h i s s y s t e m a t i c a p proach t o t h e g e n e r a t i o n o f p o l i c i e s i s h e l d by t h e a u t h o r t o be c o n s i d e r a b l y s u p e r i o r t o t h e use o f i n t u i t i o n a l o n e . 4.2.4 R e s e a r c h Tool One o f t h e more i n t r i g u i n g a s p e c t s o f u s i n g t h e systems a p p r o a c h i n d e a l i n g w i t h a phenomenon l i k e r u r a l - u r b a n m i g r a t i o n i s i t s a b i l i t y , once a model has been c o n s t r u c t e d , t o r a i s e a g r e a t number o f q u e s t i o n s t h a t a r e not u s u a l l y t h o u g h t o f when u s i n g o t h e r a p p r o a c h e s . F o r i n s t a n c e , i t i s q u i t e r a r e f o r a w r i t e r on r u r a l - u r b a n m i g r a t i o n t o c o n s i d e r r e v e r s e m i g r a t i o n . However, t h e a d o p t i o n o f a systems a p p r o a c h , i n which f e e d b a c k l o o p s p l a y a p r o m i n e n t r o l e , e a s i l y a l l o w s and even promotes t h e c o n s i d e r - a t i o n o f r e v e r s e m i g r a t i o n . Because i t i s b e i n g l o o k e d a t not j u s t as a f l o w o f p e o p l e back t o t h e r u r a l s e c t o r but as a f e e d b a c k f l o w t h e c o n sequences o f t h a t f l o w i n t h e r u r a l s e c t o r i m m e d i a t e l y a t t r a c t t h e a n a l y s t ' s a t t e n t i o n . The s ystems model has t h e c a p a c j t y t o r a i s e such i m p o r t a n t , o t h e r w i s e e a s i l y o v e r l o o k e d , phenomena. In a d d i t i o n t o t h e above, a systems model p r o v i d e s a u s e f u l framework f o r c a r r y i n g o u t a g r e a t d e a l o f r e s e a r c h w i t h o u t l o s s o f a s e n s e o f d i r e c t i o n . The model p r e s e n t e d h e r e , f o r i n s t a n c e , c o n t a i n s a l a r g e number o f r e l a t i o n s h i p s w h i c h a r e o n l y h y p o t h e s i z e d t o be r e p r e s e n t a t i v e o f r e a l i t y . A g r e a t d e a l o f f o l l o w - u p i n v e s t i g a t i o n can be done t o t e s t t h e r e l a t i o n s h i - 83 - I t i s t h e model t h a t p r o v i d e s t h e o r g a n i z i n g framework n e c e s s a r y i n c a r r y i n g o u t such a l a r g e volume o f r e s e a r c h . 4.2.5 Some Weaknesses o f t h e Systems Approach A u s e f u l p o i n t o f d e p a r t u r e i n d i s c u s s i n g t h e weaknesses o f t h e systems approach i s a r e c e n t p a p e r by Douglas Lee, J r . (19730. T h i s paper was r e a l l y a d d r e s s e d t o t h e l a r g e - s c a l e urban s i m u l a t i o n models t h a t have been v e r y much i n e v i d e n c e i n p l a n n i n g c i r c l e s s i n c e t h e e a r l y s i x t i e s . In a s e n s e t h e RUM model o f . t h i s c h a p t e r can be seen as a l a r g e - s c a l e urban model, and so some o f h i s c r i t i c i s m s o f them a p p l y h e r e . v Lee i d e n t i f i e s what he d e s c r i b e s as t h e "seven s i n s o f l a r g e - s c a l e m odels": h y p e r c o m p r e h e n s i v e n e s s ; g r o s s n e s s , h u n g r i n e s s ; wrongheadedness; c o m p I i c a t e d n e s s ; m e c h a n i c a I n e s s ; and e x p e n s i v e n e s s . A few remarks about some o f t h e " s i n s " a r e i n p l a c e . The a t t e m p t i n l a r g e - s c a l e mode I . b u i I d i n g t o r e p l i c a t e t o o complex a s y s t e m a l l i n one model, and i t s l o g i c a l consequence o f t r y i n g t o i n c o r - p o r a t e t o o many p u r p o s e s and e x p e c t a t i o n s , a r e t h e h a l l m a r k s o f comprehen- s i v e n e s s . Of c o u r s e t h i s p r o v e s f a t a l , f o r t o t r y t o do t o o many t h i n g s a l l a t a t i m e r e s u l t s i n c o n f u s i o n and i n d o i n g a l l p o o r l y . L a r g e - s c a l e models r e q u i r e an enormous amount o f d a t a t o be o p e r a t i o n a l ( h u n g r i n e s s ) . The c o l l e c t i o n o f such d a t a can e a s i l y become a g i g a n t i c o p e r a t i o n by i t s e l f , and o f t e n i t c a n n o t be a c c o m p l i s h e d a d e q u a t e l y . T h i s r e s u l t s i n weakness i n i n p u t d a t a and poor model p e r f o r m a n c e . . A major s o u r c e o f d i f f i c u l t y i n l a r g e - s c a l e models i s t h e g e n e r a l weakness o f t h e t h e o r e t i c a l bases o f such l a r g e models. P e r h a p s t h e rea s o n f o r g r a v e c o n c e r n here i s not so much t h a t t h e r e a r e t h e o r e t i c a l weaknesses but t h a t , h a v i n g c o n s t r u c t e d t h e model, an a n a l y s t may s t a r t t r e a t i n g i t as - 84 - i f t h e weaknesses had t h e r e b y d i s a p p e a r e d . So, i n s t e a d o f u s i n g t h e models f o r t h e v a l i d a t i o n o f t h e assumed s t r u c t u r a l , r e l a t i o n s h i p s , and h e l p t o s t r e n g t h e n t h e t h e o r y , t h e a n a l y s t p r e o c c u p i e s h i m s e l f w i t h u s i n g t h e model t o s o l v e p l a n n i n g p r o b l e m s . I t i s c l e a r t o anyone w i t h some f a m i l i a r i t y w i t h a l a r g e - s c a l e model t h a t a g r e a t many a s s u m p t i o n s go i n t o i t s development. Keeping t r a c k o f t h e s e a s s u m p t i o n s and b e i n g a b l e t o see t h e f i n a l model a l w a y s i n t h e c o n t e x t o f t h e a s s u m p t i o n s i s not ea s y . T h i s can be a r e a l s o u r c e o f c o n f u s i o n f o r both m o d e l l e r and t h o s e t r y i n g t o comiiun i c a t e w i t h him. 1 Above and beyond t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p s s p e c i f i e d f o r a l a r g e - s c a l e model a r e o t h e r i m p l i c i t o n e s ; t h e i m p l i c a t i o n s o f t h e s e a r e n o t o f t e n e a s y t o p e r c e i v e . A c a s e i n p o i n t i s t h e a p p l i c a t i o n o f t h e g r a v i t y model i n t r i p - g e n e r a t i o n a t t h e n e i g h b o u r h o o d s c a l e where i t has no s t a t i s t i c a l e x p l a n a - t o r y power. T h i s k i n d o f p r o b l e m i s i n s i d i o u s and t o t h a t e x t e n t d a n g e r o u s . L a r g e - s c a l e m o d e l l i n g can be a drawback t o t h e p r o m o t i o n o f knowledge i n a p a r t i c u l a r a r e a where t h e a n a l y s t uses i t t o c r e a t e c o m p l e x i t y where none e x i s t e d i n t h e f i r s t p l a c e . The v i r t u e o f s i m p l i c i t y o v e r c o m p l e x i t y c a n n o t be o v e r e m p h a s i z e d i n t h i s r e g a r d . And, f i n a l l y , a systems model, t h o u g h . i t may be v a l u a b l e , i s not t h e r e a l - w o r l d s y s t e m t h a t i t r e p r e s e n t s . The t e m p t a t i o n o f t r e a t i n g i t as one by t h e a n a l y s t e x i s t s , and must be r e s i s t e d . CHAPTER 5 • i 1'. : APPLICATION OF THE SYSTEMS MODEL There a r e two major ways i n wh i c h t h e RUM systems model may be a p p l i e d . F i r s t i t may be used as a means f o r a s y s t e m a t i c g e n e r a t i o n o f a range o f p o l i c y i n t e r v e n t i o n s u g g e s t i o n s . S e c o n d l y , i t may be a p p l i e d f o r t h e g e n e r a t i o n o f h y p o t h e s e s r e l e v a n t t o t h e v a l i d a t i o n o f t h e assumed r e l a t i o n s h i p s w i t h i n t h e model i t s e l f . i i i .1 S y s t e m a t i c G e n e r a t i o n o f P o l i c y I n t e r v e n t i o n S u g g e s t i o n s The p o i n t has p r e v i o u s l y been made i n s e c t i o n 4.1.4 t h a t e v e r y one o f t h e p r o c e s s e s r e p r e s e n t e d by r a t e v a r i a b l e s i n t h e systems model i s a p o t e n t i a l p o l i c y i n t e r v e n t i o n p o i n t . T h i s i m p l i e s t h a t by i n t e r v e n i n g i n t h e o p e r a t i o n o f any one o f t h e p r o c e s s e s some change i n t h e r a t e o f u r b a n - r u r a l m i g r a t i o n may be b r o u g h t a b o u t . However t h e v a r i o u s p o i n t s d i f f e r , i n t e r ms o f t h e degree t o which changes i n them a f f e c t RUM and t h e e x t e n t t o which i n t e r v e n i n g i n t h e i r o p e r a t i o n s i s p o l i t i c a l l y o r e c o n o m i c a l l y f e a s i b l e . There i s t h u s some m e r i t i n e x a m i n i n g a range o f p o l i c y i n t e r - v e n t i o n s u g g e s t i o n s b e f o r e making p o l i c y recommendations. ' A systems model o f a r e a l - w o r l d . s y s t e m i s a c o n v e n i e n t means o f s e e i n g a t a g l a n c e t h e d i f f e r e n t p o l i c y i n t e r v e n t i o n p o i n t s ; and by c o n s i d e r i n g t h e p o l i c y o p t i o n s f o r each p o i n t i t i s p o s s i b l e t o s y s t e m a t i c a l l y d e r i v e a r a n g e " o f o p t i o n s . The a l t e r n a t i v e t o t h i s s y s t e m a t i c a p p r o a c h , a p a r t i a l a p p r o a c h , i s what dominates t h e l i t e r a t u r e on r u r a l - u r b a n m i g r a t i o n , i . e . , many w r i t e r s make p o l i c y recommendations w i t h o u t d e m o n s t r a t i n g awareness o f t h e range o f a l t e r n a t i v e s , and complementary a c t i o n s , t h r o u g h o t h e r - 86 - p o l i c y i n t e r v e n t i o n p o i n t s , t h a t i s p o s s i b l e . The, c o n t r i b u t i o n s o f Okurume (1971) and Madavo (1971) w i l l i l l u s t r a t e t h i s p o i n t . In t h i s s e c t i o n a few p o l i c y i n t e r v e n t i o n s u g g e s t i o n s w i l l be d e r i v e d by r e f e r e n c e t o some of t h e p o l i c y i n t e r v e n t i o n p o i V i t s o f t h e systems model. These s u g g e s t i o n s , i t must be s t r e s s e d , a r e not p r e s e n t e d as p o l i c y recommendations f o r t h e c o n t r o l o f r u r a l - u r b a n m i g r a t i o n ; r a t h e r t h e i d e a i s t o d e m o n s t r a t e how one may s y s t e m a t i c a l l y p r o c e e d from t h e model t o a range o f p o l i c y i n t e r v e n t i o n s u g g e s t i o n s . T hree p o i n t s need t o be made i n t h i s r e g a r d . The p o l i c y s u g g e s t i o n s t o be d e r i v e d a r e not n e c e s s a r i l y o r i g i n a l i d e a s and w i l l n ot be new t o t h o s e f a m i l i a r w i t h t h e l i t e r a t u r e on r u r a l - u r b a n m i g r a t i o n . What may be new i s t h a t t h e r e i s a s y s t e m a t i c way o f d e r i v i n g p o l i c y s u g g e s t i o n s t o de a l w i t h a r e a l - w o r l d system so t h a t t h e p r o c e s s o f a r r i v i n g a t such s u g g e s t i o n s i s not e n t i r e l y a r b i t r a r y . S e c o n d l y , t h e systems model d r a m a t i z e s t h e p o i n t t h a t i n w o r k i n g o u t a s t r a t e g y f o r i n t e r v e n t i o n , a p o l i c y t h a t d i r e c t s a l l i t s e f f o r t s t o o n l y one i n t e r v e n t i o n p o i n t , t o t h e n e g l e c t o f a l l t h e o t h e r s , may p r o v e t o be f u t i l e , and t h a t a b u n d l e o f p o l i c i e s d i r e c t e d s i m u l t a n e o u s l y a t d i f f e r e n t i n t e r v e n t i o n p o i n t s may be more r e a l i s t i c . F or i n s t a n c e , a p o l i c y o f s m a l l - t o w n development t o promote m a r k e t i n g f a c i l i t i e s and t o s t i m u l a t e - some u r b a n - r e l a t e d a c t i v i t i e s i s l e g i t i m a t e ; but i f t h i s i s not combined w i t h an i n c o m e s p o I i c y t o g i v e young p e o p l e t h e n e c e s s a r y i n c e n t i v e t o remain and farm i n t h e r u r a l a r e a s , i t w i l l n ot work. T h i s i s not t o s u g g e s t , however, t h a t o n l y an incomes p o l i c y i s r e q u i r e d f o r s u c c e s s . T h i r d l y , i n a complex s o c i a l s y s t e m such as t h e one w i t h which we a r e c o n c e r n e d a u s e f u l way t o p r o c e e d may w e l l be t o combine a s y s t e m a t i c a p p r o a c h t o p o l i c y s e l e c t i o n s and p i l o t p r o j e c t s d e s i g n e d t o t e s t t h e r - 87 - e f f e c t i v e n e s s o f pr o p o s e d p o l i c i e s i n the' r e a l wor^d. T a b l e 5.1 i s a p r e s e n t a t i o n o f some p o s s i b l e p o l i c y s u g g e s t i o n s r e l a t e d t o s e v e r a l s e l e c t e d p o l i c y i n t e r v e n t i o n p o i n t s . . • . 5.2 S y s t e m a t i c G e n e r a t i o n o f Hypotheses In c h a p t e r 3, some e i g h t e e n f u n c t i o n a l r e l a t i o n s h i p s were d e r i v e d f r o m F i g u r e 3.2 as f o l l o w s : 1. RUU = f(RUM, URM, RULT) 2. REU = f ( R E , URM, RELT, RUM) 3. RUE = f(RUM, RULT, URM) 4. REE = f ( R E , RELT, URM, RUM) 5. UUU = f(RUM, UULT, UE) 6. UEU = f(RUM, UELT, UE, URM) 7. UUE = f(RUM, UULT, URM) 8. UEE = f(RUM, UE, UELT, URM) 9. RE = f(RMT, REU, REE) 10. UE - f(UUU, UEU, UEE) 11. RULT = f( R E G , RUU, RUE) 12. RELT = f( R E G , REU, REE) - 13. UULT = f(UEG, UUU, UUE) 14. UELT = f(UEG, UEU, UEE) 15. RMT = f(UUE, UEE) 16. URC = f(UUU, UUE, UEU, UEE, UULT, UELT) 17. URM = f ( U E U , UUU, UEE, UUE, REU, REE, RUU, RUE) 18. RUM = f(RUU, RUE, REU, REE, URC, RMT) Each o f t h e above e q u a t i o n s r e p r e s e n t s a t e s t a b l e h y p o t h e s i s . ' Thus a systems model i s a b a s i s f o r g e n e r a t i n g a l a r g e number o f TABLE 5.1 SOME POSSIBLE POLICY INTERVENTIONS P o I i c y I n t e r v e n t i o n P o s s i b l e P o l I cy Comments V a r i a b l e - I n t e r v e n t i o n R u r a l Employment G e n e r a t i o n a) a g r i c u l t u r a l d e v e l o p - ment b) incomes a) To d e m o n s t r a t e how a f a r m e r can g e t as much r e t u r n s f o r h i s e f f o r t s as most p e o p l e i n t h e urban a r e a s . b) The gap between urban and r u r a l incomes i s g r e a t and w i d e n i n g . T h i s s u b - p o l i c y i s t o t r y t o narrow t h e gap ( M a r k e t i n g Board- p r a c t i c e s ; h o l d i n g I i n e on urban incomes; r u r a l dev. t a x ) . c ) market c e n t r e d) urban d e c e n t r a l i z a t i o n e) l a n d o w n e r s h i p c) d) These urban f a c i I i t i e s a c t i v i t i e s market c e n t r e s w i l l be l o w - o r d e r a r e a s which w i l l combine m a r k e t i n g w i t h some u r b a n - r e l a t e d f o r t h e b e n e f i t o f f a r m e r s . The aim here w i l l be t o d e c e n t r a l i z e urban i n v e s t m e n t as a means o f s t i m u l a t i n g l o c a l demand f o r farm p r o d u c t s i n t h e urban h i n t e r l a n d . T h i s w i l l a l s o o f f e r a l t e r n a - t i v e d e s t i n a t i o n s t o m i g r a n t s and r e l i e v e o v e r c r o w d i ng. e) P u t t i n g a l l la n d i n t o p u b l i c hands w i l l remove r e s t r i c t i o n s ' o n farm l a b o u r m o b i l i t y and e l i m i n a t e I and I e s s n e s s . c o n t i nued PoI Icy I n t e r v e n t i o n V a r i a b l e P o s s i b l e P o l i c y I n t e r v e n t ion Comments 2. Urban Employment G e n e r a t i o n a) incomes (same as 1b above) b) s e r v i c e s e c t o r e x p a n s i o n s u b - p o l i c y a) C o n t i n u o u s r i s i n g o f urban wages and s l o w l y r i s i n g r u r a l income i s a ma j o r s p u r t o m i g r a t i o n . T h i s p o l i c y w i l l c h e c k t h i s. b) Modern i n d u s t r i a l m a n u f a c t u r i n g c o mplexes t a k e up a l o t o f c a p i t a l and employ a few p e o p l e . T h i s p o l i c y w i l l C o n c e n t r a t e a t t e n t i o n on t h e development o f t h e l a b o u r - i n t e n s i v e s e r v i c e s e c t o r . 0 3 3. RuraI and Urban E d u c a t i o n a) fami Iy pIann i ng b) c u r r i c u l u m r e f o r m c ) c o s t o f e d u c a t i o n a) T h i s w i l l reduce t h e magnitude o f t h e problem and make i t more t r a c t a b l e . Long-run s o l u t i o n . b) The main t h r u s t o f t h e r e f o r m w i l l be t o put t h e emphasis on t e a c h i n g o f s k i l l s needed i n t h e e n v i r o n m e n t , n o t - o n e s needed" f o r a d m i s s i o n t o t h e next h i g h e r l e v e l o f e d u c a t i o n . P r e s e n t e d u c a t i o n a l s y s t e m i s ' v e r y s h o r t on s e l f - r e l i a n c e and i n i t i a t i v e . c ) T h i s p o l i c y w i l l aim a t making more s e l e c t i v e i n v e s t m e n t s i n e d u c a t i o n and s h i f t g r e a t e r burdens on t o p a r e n t s . T h i s w i l l reduce school, i n t a k e , dampen m i g r a - t i o n , and r e l e a s e p u b l i c funds f o r o t h e r forms of i n v e s t m e n t . c o n t i nued Po 1 i cy- 1 n t e r v e n t i o n V a r i a b l e P o s s i b l e P o l I c y I n t e r v e n t i o n Comments 4. R e v e r s e M i g r a t i o n R e p a t r i a t i o n I f t h i s can be implemented i t w i l l d i m i n i s h r u r a l - u r b a n m i g r a t i o n . But i t may be hard t o do i t w e l l ; c o s t may a l s o be p r o h i b i t i v e . 5. U r b a n - R u r a l Communication Propaganda T h i s p o l i c y w i l l aim a t p r o v i d i n g r e a l i s t i c p i c t u r e s o f unemployment i n urban a r e a s and l e s s u r b a n - b i a s e d news c o v e r a g e . I t w i l l promote a s e l f - h e l p , rura1-deve1opment movement t h r o u g h i n f o r m a t i o n . No doubt t h e degree o f s u c c e s s w i l l depend on p r o g r e s s i n o t h e r sub-po.l i c i e s . / • • . e x p l . i c i t l y i n t e r r e l a t e d , t e s t a b l e h y p o t h e s e s about jthe r e a l - w o r l d s y s tem. A t e s t o f t h e v a l u e o f a model i n t h i s r e g a r d i s t o t r y t o do t h e same t h i n g w i t h o u t t h e a i d o f one. The r e s u l t , i n my o p i n i o n would be a s m a l l e r number o f , l a r g e l y , u n r e l a t e d h y p o t h e s e s . The r e m a i n d e r o f t h i s c h a p t e r wiI I p r e s e n t f o u r p o l i c y i n t e r v e n t i o n p o i n t s i n t h e RUM systems model and make one p o s s i b l e p o l i c y i n t e r v e n t i o n s u g g e s t i o n f o r each o f them. I t w i l l t h e n be shown how such p o l i c y s u g g e s t i o n s l e a d t o t h e g e n e r a t i o n o f t e s t a b l e h y p o t h e s e s . F i n a l l y , d a t a r e q u i r e m e n t s f o r t h e t e s t i n g o f t h e s e h y p o t h e s e s wi I be d i s c u s s e d . R u r a l Employment G e n e r a t i o n , REG One o f t h e more i m p o r t a n t t h r e a d s t h a t run t h r o u g h most d i s c u s s i o n s o f t h e c a u s e s o f r u r a l - u r b a n m i g r a t i o n i s t h a t t h e income d i f f e r e n t i a l betv/een r u r a l and urban a r e a s i s t h e most p o w e r f u l m o t i v e f o r c e b e h i n d t h e p r o c e s s . O f t e n , t h e r e f o r e , p o l i c i e s aimed a t n a r r o w i n g t h i s d i f f e r e n t i a l have been a d v o c a t e d . They range from s u g g e s t i o n s t o l o c a t e new i n d u s t r i e s i n r u r a l a r e a s t o o u t r i g h t r u r a l income s u b s i d y . A p o l i c y which has been s u g g e s t e d b e f o r e as a way of_ c l o s i n g t h e income gap i s t h a t o f d e c e n t r a l i z a t i o n o f urban i n v e s t m e n t t o p r o v i n c i a l and l o w e r - o r d e r c e n t r e s . T h i s p o l i c y , t h e argument goes^ w i l l make i t p o s s i b l e f o r a l l f a r m e r s t o have a c c e s s t o urban- c e n t r e s f o r t h e p u r p o s e o f m a r k e t i n g t h e i r p r o d u c t s and s u c h an e f f e c t i v e m a r k e t i n g l i n k w i l l i n c r e a s e farm r e v e n u e s . A second s u p p o r t i n g v i e w p o i n t i s t h a t urban c e n t r e s a r e t h e p o i n t s from which i n n o v a t i v e i d e a s a r e d i f f u s e d t o r u r a l a r e a s and presumably o v e r t h e long run t h e s e i n n o v a t i v e i n f l u e n c e s w i l l have a b e n e f i c i a l e f f e c t upon r u r a l income. In c o n s i d e r i n g such a p o l i c y a q u e s t i o n t h a t a r i s e s i s t h i s : what, - 92 - e m p i r i c a l l y , have been t h e e f f e c t s o f e x i s t i n g p r o v i n c i a l and l o w e r - o r d e r urban c e n t r e s on t h e m i g r a t o r y b e h a v i o u r o f n e i g h b o u r i n g r u r a l p e o p l e ? A h y p o t h e s i s may be s t a t e d as f o l l o w s : farm incomes d e c r e a s e , and r a t e s o f m i g r a t i o n i n c r e a s e , w i t h d i s t a n c e from p r o v i n c i a l and l o w e r - o r d e r c e n t r e s . The d a t a f o r t e s t i n g t h i s h y p o t h e s i s c o u l d be d e r i v e d from a sample o f r u r a l c o m m u n i t i e s l o c a t e d a t v a r y i n g d i s t a n c e s from p r o v i n c i a l and l o w e r - o r d e r c e n t r e s . F o r each r u r a l community, d a t a on farm income and t h e r a t e o f r u r a l - u r b a n m i g r a t i o n w i l l be needed f o r a s i m p l e c o r r e l a t i o n a n a l y s i s . R u r a l E d u c a t i o n , RE E d u c a t i o n i s d e s i r a b l e not o n l y f o r • p r e p a r i n g an i n d i v i d u a l f o r a c a r e e r but a l s o f o r o t h e r , n o n - o c c u p a t i o n a l p u r p o s e s . In. i t s Second N a t i o n a l Development P l a n ( 1 9 7 0 - 7 4 ) , t h e F e d e r a l Government o f N i g e r i a • s t a t e d as f o l lows: "One m a j o r f o c u s o f e d u c a t i o n a l p o l i c y i n N i g e r i a has been t h e u l t i m a t e p r o v i s i o n o f forma I e d u c a t i o n t o e v e r y c h i l d o f s c h o o l g o i n g age t o a t l e a s t p r i m a r y s c h o o l l e v e l , on t h e ground t h a t u n i v e r s a l e d u c a t i o n i s v e r y v i t a l i n i m p r o v i n g p e o p l e ' s r e c e p t i v e n e s s t o new i d e a s . The o t h e r o b j e c t i v e o f e d u c a t i o n a l p o l i c y i s t h e c r e a t i o n o f an adequate s t o c k o f s k i l l s needed i n t h e p r o c e s s o f s o c i a l and economic development." G i v e n t h i s o b j e c t i v e , any m i g r a t i o n p o l i c y s u g g e s t i o n t h a t w i l l have t h e e f f e c t o f r e d u c i n g t h e o p p o r t u n i t i e s f o r e d u c a t i o n may not be p o l i t i c a l l y f e a s i b l e . A more f e r t i l e a r e a o f i n t e r v e n t i o n may be t h a t o f c u r r i c u l u m r e f o r m aimed a t p r o d u c i n g s c h o o l g r a d u a t e s c a p a b l e o f making more c r e a t i v e use o f t h e o p p o r t u n i t i e s p r e s e n t e d w i t h i n t h e r u r a l e n v i r o n m e n t . The r e l a t e d q u e s t i o n t o r a i s e here i s whether t h e r e a r e any d i f f e r e n c e s i n m i g r a t o r y b e h a v i o u r between t h e i n h a b i t a n t s o f r u r a l c o m m u n i t i e s where' p u p i l s a r e exposed t o a h i g h degree o f p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n r u r a l ! w o r k and t h o s e i n a r e a s \ ) where t h e i r p a r t i c i p a t i o n i s low. From t h i s q u e s t i o n t h e f o l l o w i n g h y p o t h e s i s may be g e n e r a t e d : t h e r e i s a n e g a t i v e c o r r e l a t i o n between t h e amount o f s k i l l i n d o i n g r u r a l work p o s s e s s e d by p u p i l s i n a g i v e n community and t h e r a t e o f r u r a l - u r b a n m i g r a t i o n from t h e r e ( e s p e c i a l l y under c o n d i t i o n s o f h i g h urban unemployment). C r o s s - s e c t i o n a l d a t a f o r t h e v e r i f i c a t i o n o f t h i s h y p o t h e s i s may be o b t a i n e d by t a k i n g a sample o f r u r a l s c h o o l s , and t e s t i n g p u p i l s f o r t h e i r • s k i l l s i n c a r r y i n g o u t d i f f e r e n t t a s k s r e l a t e d t o making a l i v i n g i n r u r a l i a r e a s ( f a r m i n g , r u r a l c r a f t s , e t c . ) . W i t h t h i s and t h e r a t e s . o f r u r a l - urban m i g r a t i o n f o r a l l c o m m u n i t i e s , a c o r r e l a t i o n a n a l y s i s can be p e r f o r m e d t o t e s t t h e h y p o t h e s i s and b u t t r e s s o r weaken t h e c a s e f o r c u r r i c u l u m r e f o r m as a p o l i c y f o r i n f l u e n c i n g r u r a l - u r b a n m i g r a t i o n . U r b a n - R u r a l C o m m u n i c a t i o n , URC One o f t h e h y p o t h e s i z e d r e l a t i o n s h i p s i n t h e s ystems model i s t h a t i n f o r m a t i o n about h i g h urban unemployment has t h e e f f e c t o f d i s c o u r a g i n g t h e d e c i s i o n t o m i g r a t e t o t h e urban a r e a . A r i s i n g from t h i s i s a p o l i c y s u g g e s t i o n f o r a p u b l i c - s p o n s o r e d r u r a I i n f o r m a t i o n programme, aimed a t c r e a t i n g a c e r t a i n i m a g e o f t h e urban employment market t o r u r a l i t e s . R e l e v a n t t o s u c h a s u g g e s t i o n i s t h e q u e s t i o n : does i n f o r m a t i o n about urban unemployment have any impact on t h e m i g r a t i o n o f r u r a l p e o p l e t o urban a r e a s ? A r e l a t e d h y p o t h e s i s i s t h i s : t h e r a t e o f r u r a I - u r b a n m i g r a t i o n from a g i v e n r u r a l community i s n e g a t i v e l y r e l a t e d t o t h e amount o f i n f o r m a t i o n (about urban u n e m p l o y m e n t ) ' r e a c h i n q t h a t community. The t e c h n i q u e f o r o b t a i n i n g d a t a t o t e s t t h i s h y p o t h e s i s i s t o i n t e r - v iew p o t e n t i a l m i g r a n t s i n a sample o f r u r a l c o m m u n i t i e s t o t r y t o a s s e s s t h e l e v e l o f t h e i r awareness o f urban unemployment c o n d i t i o n s . A c o r r e l a t i o n \ a n a l y s i s w i l l be p o s s i b l e as i n t h e p r e v i o u s cases1;.' R e m i t t a n c e s , RMT The systems model i m p l i c i t l y i n c o r p o r a t e s t h e h y p o t h e s i s t h a t a l a r g e p o r t i o n o f t h e r e m i t t a n c e s s e n t i n t o r u r a l a r e a s from urban s'ources go t o t h e s u p p o r t o f e d u c a t i o n , w h i c h , i n t u r n , i n c r e a s e s t h e p r o p e n s i t y among r u r a l p e o p l e t o m i g r a t e . A p o l i c y i n t h i s a r e a aimed a t e x h o r t i n g urban Ipeople not t o send r e m i t t a n c e s t o r u r a l r e l a t i v e s may be i n f e a s i b l e on t h e ground t h a t k i n s h i p t i e s a r e s t i l l v e r y s t r o n g . On t h e o t h e r hand a p o l i c y o f urban t a x a t i o n f o r r u r a l development can be i n s t i t u t e d . By t a x i n g away p a r t o f t h e d i s p o s - a b l e incomes o f u r b a n i t e s , t h e government r e d u c e s t h e i r c a p a c i t i e s t o send r e m i t t a n c e s . The revenues can be used i n r u n n i n g a r u r a l development bank f o r t h e s o l e p u r p o s e o f p r o m o t i n g n o n - e d u c a t i o n a l , but employment c r e a t i n g , i n v e s t m e n t i n r u r a l a r e a s . But i s t h e r a t e o f r u r a l - u r b a n m i g r a t i o n a t a r u r a l l o c a t i o n a f u n c t i o n o f t h e amount o f r e m i t t a n c e s r e c e i v e d t h e r e ? The r e l a t e d h y p o t h e s i s ' t o t h i s q u e s t i o n i s t h i s : t h e r a t e o f r u r a 1 - u r b a n ' m i g r a t i o n from a r u r a l community i s p o s i t i v e l y r e l a t e d t o t h e t o t a l amount o f r e m i t t a n c e s r e c e i v e d . | An i n t e n s i v e i n t e r v i e w o f a sample o f r u r a l - heads o f f a m i l i e s , who have urban c o n n e c t i o n s , w i l l y i e l d i n f o r m a t i o n on t h e amount o f r e m i t t a n c e s e n t e r i n g t h e p a r t i c u l a r community. T h i s , w i t h t h e r a t e o f m i g r a t i o n , c o l l e c t e d f o r a sample o f r u r a l c o m m u n i t i e s w i l l . a I low a v e r i f i c a t i o n o f t h e h y p o t h e s i s . In summary, t h i s c h a p t e r has a t t e m p t e d t o show how t h e RUM systems model can a i d a s y s t e m a t i c d e r i v a t i o n o f a range o f p o l i c y i n t e r v e n t i o n s u g g e s t i o n s and h y p o t h e s e s - - .95 - CHAPTER 6 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION 6.1 Review Concern o v e r t h e problems o f h i g h r a t e s o f r u r a l - u r b a n m i g r a t i o n i n * N i g e r i a , as indeed i n most o f t h e t h i r d w o r l d , c e n t r e s around t h r e e main i s s u e s . F i r s t t h e r e i s t h e c o n c e r n o v e r t h e e n v i r o n m e n t a l i s s u e . o f o v e r c r o w d i n g i n t h e m e t r o p o l i t a n a r e a s r e s u l t i n g from r a p i d urban growth. The urban p h y s i c a l e n v i r o n m e n t r a p i d l y d e t e r i o r a t e s i n such a c i r c u m s t a n c e and enormous s t r a i n s a r e p l a c e d upon m u n i c i p a l a d m i n i s t r a t i v e and f i s c a l r e s o u r c e s . S e c o n d l y , t h e r e i s c o n c e r n a r i s i n g f r o m - t h e f a c t t h a t t h e s w e l l i n g p o o l o f urban unemployed, s u s t a i n e d by r u r a I - u r b a n m i g r a t i o n s t r e a m s , can no l o n g e r r e p r e s e n t a d e s i r a b l e economic phenomenon, but a c o n s t r a i n t on economic development. T h i r d l y , t h e r e i s c o n c e r n o v e r t h e a d v e r s e s o c i o - p o l i t i c a l i m p l i c a t i o n s o f p r o l o n g e d f r u s t r a t i o n among t h e urban p o o r . To t h e governments o f N i g e r i a , t h e r e f o r e , r u r a l - u r b a n m i g r a t i o n i s a p r o b l e m t h a t must be t h o r o u g h l y u n d e r s t o o d , i n o r d e r t o a l l o w r e a l i s t i c p o l i c i e s t o be g e n e r a t e d . T h i s work aims a t making a modest c o n t r i b u t i o n t o w a r d s such an u n d e r s t a n d i n g . T r a d i t i o n a l d i s c i p l i n a r y a p p r o a c h e s have so f a r not s u c c e e d e d i n making any s i g n i f i c a n t headway t o w a r d a s o l u t i o n t o t h e p r o b l e m o f r u r a l - urban m i g r a t i o n , and i t i s a r g u e d here t h a t t h e major cause o f f a i l u r e may w e l l be t h a t t h e a p p r o a c h e s have been p a r t i a l i n n a t u r e . P r o c e e d i n g oh t h e p r e m i s e t h a t r u r a l - u r b a n m i g r a t i o n i s i n r e a l i t y a p r o c e s s w i t h i n a complex s o c i o - e c o n o m i c s y s t e m c o n s i s t i n g o f many i n t e r - a c t i n g components and s i g n i f i c a n t f e e d b a c k e f f e c t s , g e n e r a l systems t h e o r y - 96 - was c o n s i d e r e d a u s e f u l a n a l y t i c a l framework f o r i t s i n v e s t i g a t i o n . As w e l l as p r o v i d i n g a b r o a d e r p e r s p e c t i v e , a systems framework i s a p o w e r f u l t o o l f o r e x p l o r a t o r y r e s e a r c h and w e l l - s u i t e d t o t h e p r o b l e m under i n v e s t i g a t i o n . By r e l y i n g on m a t e r i a l from e x i s t i n g l i t e r a t u r e and p e r s o n a l e x p e r i e n c e o f t h e p r o c e s s i n s o u t h - e a s t e r n N i g e r i a i t was p o s s i b l e t o c o n s t r u c t a twenty-component model o f r u r a l - u r b a n m i g r a t i o n f o r N i g e r i a . E i g h t o f t h e components a r e s t o c k v a r i a b l e s ; t w e l v e a r e r a t e v a r i a b l e s ( F i g u r e 4 . 2 ) . Most o f t h e i n t e r r e l a t i o n s h i p s d e p i c t e d i n t h e model a r e o n l y h y p o t h e s i z e d t o be r e p r e s e n t a t i v e o f r e a l i t y . Thus a l o g i c a l a p p l i c a t i o n o f t h e model i s t h e g e n e r a t i o n o f a l a r g e number o f r e l a t e d , t e s t a b l e h y p o t h e s e s whose v e r i f i c a t i o n s s h o u l d make a s i g n i f i c a n t a d d i t i o n t o t h e u n d e r s t a n d i n g o f t h e p r o c e s s o f r u r a l - u r b a n m i g r a t i o n i n t h i s p a r t o f t h e w o r l d . Each o f t h e r a t e v a r i a b l e s i n t h e systems model r e p r e s e n t s a p o l i c y i n t e r v e n t i o n p o i n t because a l l a r e p r o c e s s e s whose o p e r a t i o n s change o t h e r r a t e v a r i a b l e s , t h e s t o c k v a r i a b l e s , and, t h u s , t h e c o n d i t i o n s o f t h e s y s t e m . A s y s t e m a t i c way t o g e n e r a t e a whole range o f p o t e n t i a l p o l i c i e s f o r i n f l u e n c i n g t h e r a t e o f r u r a l - u r b a n m i g r a t i o n i s t o c o n s i d e r t h e p o s s i b - i l i t i e s f o r i n t e r v e n t i o n f o r each o f t h e r a t e v a r i a b l e s . In t h i s way, t h e g e n e r a t i o n o f p o t e n t i a l p o l i c i e s i s not h a n d i c a p p e d by a r b i t r a r i n e s s o r i n c o m p l e t e c o v e r a g e . T h i s a p p l i c a t i o n o f t h e model was d e m o n s t r a t e d h e r e i n . 6.2 D i r e c t i o n s f o r F u t u r e R e s e a r c h The main t h r u s t o f t h i s s t u d y i s t o l a y t h e groundwork f o r f u r t h e r , s u b s t a n t i v e r e s e a r c h on r u r a l - u r b a n m i g r a t i o n in- t r o p i c a l A f r i c a . There a r e two main d i r e c t i o n s a l o n g which t o p r o c e e d beyond t h i s p o i n t : t h e m o d i f i c a t i o n o f t h e c o n c e p t u a l s t r u c t u r e o f t h e s ystems model t o i n c o r p o r a t e - 97 - • 1 . i l s e v e r a l o t h e r i m p o r t a n t a s p e c t s o f t h e p r o c e s s o f RUM; and t h e t e s t i n g o f 1 t h e v a l i d i t y o f h y p o t h e s e s a r i s i n g from t h e model t h r o u g h t h e development o f p r i m a r y d a t a . t. A f t e r t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n o f t h e p r e s e n t model, i t became c l e a r t h a t t h e r o l e s o f s o c i a l a m e n i t i e s i n r u r a l and urban a r e a s were i m p o r t a n t - e l e m e n t s * i n m i g r a t i o n d e c i s i o n s and s h o u l d be i n c o r p o r a t e d i n t h e model. Such an e n r i c h m e n t w i l l make t h e model more r e a l i s t i c . S e c o n d l y , t h e t r e a t m e n t o f r u r a l employment i n t h e p r e s e n t model i s •not q u i t e s a t i s f a c t o r y . Farm and non-farm employmenjr o u g h t t o be d i s a g g - • • r e g a t e d because t h e e x i s t e n c e o r n o n - e x i s t e n c e o f non-farm j o b s i n a r u r a l l o c a t i o n may w e l l be a c r i t i c a l e l e m e n t i n m i g r a t o r y b e h a v i o u r . The m o d i f i c a t i o n s s u g g e s t e d above w i l l a l l o w t h e g e n e r a t i o n and t e s t i n g o f h y p o t h e s e s r e g a r d i n g a d d i t i o n a l b a s i c p o l i c y q u e s t i o n s about r u r a l - u r b a n m i g r a t i o n . The f i r s t q u e s t i o n c o n c e r n s t h e k i n d o f t r a d e - o f f f u n c t i o n s , i f any, t h a t g o v e r n t h e b e h a v i o u r o f p o t e n t i a l m i g r a n t s and t h e urban unemployed, i e . , what a r e t h e y p r e p a r e d t o c o n s i d e r as a minimum inducement package not t o m i g r a t e ( i n t h e c a s e o f p o t e n t i a l m i g r a n t s ) and t o l e a v e t h e urban a r e a ( i n t h e c a s e o f t h e urban unemployed)? S u c c e s s f u l i n v e s t i g a t i o n o f t h e s e q u e s t i o n s w i l l y i e l d i n f o r m a t i o n o f c o n s i d e r a b l e i m p o r t a n c e i n f a s h i o n i n g m i g r a t i o n p o l i c y . I The second b a s i c q u e s t i o n t h a t has t o be r a i s e d and answered i s t h i s : how does one d e f i n e and measure ' r u r a l d e v e l o p m e n t ' , and i n what way i s i t r e l a t e d t o r u r a l - u r b a n m i g r a t i o n ? Of a l l t h e c o n c e p t s one e n c o u n t e r s i n t h e r u r a l - u r b a n m i g r a t i o n l i t e r a t u r e v e r y few s u r p a s s t h a t o f r u r a l d e v e l o p - ment i n both p o p u l a r i t y o f usage and i m p r e c i s i o n . A c l a r i f i c a t i o n o f t h i s c o n c e p t and i t s r o l e i n t h e r u r a l urban m i g r a t i o n p r o c e s s would be a s i g n i f i c a n t c o n t r i b u t i o n . - 98 - A p a r t from t h e m o d i f i c a t i o n o f t h e c o n c e p t u a l s t r u c t u r e o f t h e model, t h e a r e a o f v e r i f i c a t i o n o f h y p o t h e s i z e d r e l a t i o n s w i t h i n t h e model, t h r o u g h t h e development o f p r i m a r y d a t a , i s an o b v i o u s d i r e c t i o n f o r f u t u r e research.- • • ' - 99 - • \ \ \ BIBLtOGRAPHY 1 \ \ \\ A l u k o , S.A. " P o p u l a t i o n Growth and t h e L e v e l o f Income: a S u r v e y , " The J o u r n a l o f Modern A f r i c a n S t u d i e s , 9, 4 ( 1 9 7 1 ) , 561-575. A s h t o n , T.S. An Economic H i s t o r y o f E n g l a n d : The E i g h t e e n t h C e n t u r y . London: Methuen, 1966. B a n t o n , M i c h a e l P. West A f r i c a n C i t y : A Study o f T r i b a l L i f e i n F r e e t o w n . London: O x f o r d U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1957. B a x t e r , D a v i d . " S i m u l a t i o n M o d e l l i n g : The Process".' U n p u b l i s h e d P a p e r , F a c u l t y o f G r a d u a t e S t u d i e s , U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a , 1973. B e a l s , R a l p h E., M i l d r e d B. Levy, e t a l . " R a t i o n a l i t y and M i g r a t i o n i n Ghana," The Review o f Economics and S t a t i s t i c s ! , 49, 4 ( 1 9 6 7 ) , ! 480-86. 1 • B e r t a l a n f f y , Ludwig von. G e n e r a l Systems Theory. New Y o r k : George B r a z i l l e r , 1968. B r e e s e , G e r a l d ( e d . ) . The C i t y i n Newly D e v e l o p i n g C o u n t r i e s : R e a d i n g s on U r banism and U r b a n i z a t i o n . Englewood C l i f f s , N.J.: P r e n t i c e - H a l l , i n c . , 1969. B y e r l e e , Derek. " A g r i c u l t u r a l Development and Urban Development: A S i m u l a t i o n A n a l y s i s o f t h e N i g e r i a n Economy". U n p u b l i s h e d Ph.D. d i s s e r t a t i o n , Oregon S t a t e U n i v e r s i t y , 1971. B y e r l e e , Derek. " R e s e a r c h on M i g r a t i o n i n A f r i c a : P a s t , P r e s e n t and F u t u r e " . A f r i c a n R u r a l Employment Paper #2, Department o f A g r i c u l - t u r a l E c onomics, M i c h i g a n S t a t e . U n i v e r s i t y , E a s t L a n s i n g , M i c h i g a n , 1972. B y e r l e e , Derke.and C a r l K. E i c h e r . " R u r a l Employment, M i g r a t i o n and Economic Development: T h e o r e t i c a l I s s u e s and E m p i r i c a l E v i d e n c e from A f r i c a " . A f r i c a n R u r a l Employment Pap e r #1, Department o f A g r i c u l t u r a l E c onomics, M i c h i g a n S t a t e U n i v e r s i t y , E a s t L a n s i n g , Mich i g a n , 1972. I C a l d w e l l , John C. A f r i c a n R u r a I - U r b a n M i g r a t i o n : The Movement t o Ghana Towns. Camberra: A u s t r a l i a n N a t i o n a l U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1969. C a l d w e l l , J.C. and C. Okonjo ( e d s . ) . The P o p u l a t i o n o f T r o p i c a l A f r i c a . London: Longmans Green & Co. L t d . , 1968. C a l l a w a y , A r c h i b a l d . "Unemployment Among A f r i c a n School L e a v e r s , " The J o u r n a l o f Modern A f r i c a n S t u d i e s , I, 3 ( 1 9 6 3 ) , 351-371. C a l l a w a y , A r c h i b a l d . " E d u c a t i o n E x p a n s i o n and t h e R i s e o f Youth Unemploy- ment" i n P.C. L l o y d , A.L. Mabogunje, e t a l (eds.), The C i t y o f Ibadan. London: Cambridge U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1967. - 100 - C o l l i n s , G.R. "Movements o f P o p u l a t i o n from R u r a l t o Urban A r e a s i n S i e r r a Leone," R e c o r d , I n t e r n a t i o n a l I n s t i t u t e o f D i f f e r i n g C i v i l i z a t i o n s , 27 ( 1 9 5 2 ) , 152-171. i D a v i s , H. C r a i g and W i l l i a m E. Rees. "An Ecosystems Approach t o R e g i o n a l E c o n o m i c / E n v i r o n m e n t a l Management". U n p u b l i s h e d M a n u s c r i p t , School o f Community and R e g i o n a l P l a n n i n g , U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a , V a n c o u v e r , 1974. \ Diejomaoh, V.P. and W.A.T. O r i m a l a d e : "Unemployment i n N i g e r i a : An Economic A n a l y s i s o f Scope, Trends and P o l i c y I s s u e s , " "The N i g e r i a n J o u r n a l o f Economic and S o c i a l S t u d i e s , 13, 2 ( 1 9 7 2 ) , 127-160. E i c h e r , C a r l K. and C a r l L e i d h o l m ( e d s . ) . Growth and Development o f t h e N i g e r i a n Economy. E a s t L a n s i n g : M i c h i g a n S t a t e U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1970. E l k a n , W a l t e r . M i g r a n t s and P r o l e t a r i a n s . London and New Y o r k : O x f o r d . U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1960. Emery, F.E. ( e d . ) . Systems T h i n k i n g . M i d d l e s e x : P e n g u i n Books, L t d . , 1969. F a l a e , S.O. "Unemployment i n N i g e r i a , " N i g e r i a n J o u r n a l o f Economic and S o c i a l S t u d i e s , 13, 1 ( 1 9 7 1 ) , 59-75. F r a n k , C h a r l e s R., J r . "The Problems o f Urban Unemployment i n A f r i c a " i n R o n a l d G. R i d k e r and H a r o l d L u b e l l ( e d s . ) , Employment and Unemployment Problems o f t h e Near E a s t and South A s i a . D e l h i : V i k a s P u b l i c a t i o n s , 1971. F o r r e s t e r , J a y W. P r i n c i p l e s o f Systems. Cambridge: W r i g h t - A l l e n P r e s s , 1968. F o r r e s t e r , J a y W. Urban Dynamics. Cambridge: The M.I.T. P r e s s , 1969. F r i e d m a n n , John. "The R o l e o f C i t i e s i n N a t i o n a l Development," The • A m e r i c a n B e h a v i o r a l S c i e n t i s t , 8, 5 ( 1 9 6 9 ) , 13-21. Fri e d m a n n , John. "General Theory o f P o l a r i z e d Development". U n p u b l i s h e d M a n u s c r i p t , School o f A r c h i t e c t u r e and Urban P l a n n i n g , U n i v e r s i t y o f C a l i f o r n i a , Los A n g e l e s , 1969. G o l d b e r g , M.A. and C.S. Hoi l i n g . "Systems S t u d i e s o f Urban R e g i o n s " . U n p u b l i s h e d P a p e r , R e s o u r c e S c i e n c e C e n t r e , U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a , 1970. G r e e n , L e s l i e and V i n c e n t Mi l o n e . " U r b a n i z a t i o n i n N i g e r i a : A P l a n n i n g Commentary". A Working Paper of t h e Ford F o u n d a t i o n I n t e r n a t i o n a l U r b a n i z a t i o n S u r v e y . Ford F o u n d a t i o n , New Y o r k , 1972. G r e g o r y , J o e l . " M i g r a t i o n i n Upper V o I t a , " • A f r i c a n Urban N o t e s , 6, 1 ( 1 9 7 1 ) , 44-52. - 101 - \ 1 G u g l e r , J o s e f . "On t h e Theory o f R u r a I - U r b a n M i g r a t i o n : The Case o f ' Sub-Saharan A f r i c a " i n J.A. J a c k s o n ( e d . ) , M i g r a t i o n . Cambridge: Cambridge U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1969. \\ G u g l e r , J o s e f ( e d . ) . Urban Growth i n Subsaharan A f r i c a . Kampala, Uganda: Maker e r e I n s t i t u t e o f S o c i a l R e s e a r c h , M a k e r e r e U n i v e r s i t y , 1970. G u t k i n d , P.C.W. " T r a d i t i o n , M i g r a t i o n , U r b a n i z a t i o n , M o d e r n i t y and • Unemployment i n A f r i c a : The R o o t s o f I n s t a b i l i t y , " C a n a d i a n J o u r n a l o f A f r i c a n S t u d i e s , 3, 2 ( 1 9 6 9 ) , 343-366. H a g e r s t r a n d , T. " M i g r a t i o n and A r e a : S urvey o f Swedish M i g r a t i o n F i e l d s a n d ' H y p o t h e t i c a I C o n s i d e r a t i o n s on t h e i r G e n e s i s " i n D. H a n n e r b e r g , e t a l ( e d s . ) , Lund S t u d i e s i n Geography, S e r . B, #13, Dept. of Geography, Royal U n i v e r s i t y o f Lund, Lund, Sweden, 1957. iHanna, W i l l i a m John and J u d i t h Lynne Hanna. Urban Dynamics i n B l a c k i A f r ? c a . C h i c a g o and New Y o r k : A I d i n e - A t h e r t o n , I n c . , 1971. H a r r i s , B r i t t o n . "New T o o l s f o r P l a n n i n g , " J o u r n a l o f t h e A m e r i c a n I n s t i t u t e o f P l a n n e r s (May, 1965), 90-95. • H a r r i s , John R. and M i c h a e l P. T o d a r o . " M i g r a t i o n , Unemployment and Development: A Two-Sector A n a l y s i s , " The American Economic Review, 60, 1 ( 1 9 7 0 ) , 126-142. H a r v e y , M i l t o n . " I m p l i c a t i o n s o f M i g r a t i o n t o F r e e t o w n : A Study o f t h e R e l a t i o n s h i p Between M i g r a n t s , H o u s i n g and O c c u p a t i o n , " C i v i I i z a t i o n s ( B r ) , 18, 2 ( 1 9 6 8 ) , 247-269. H i l l , P o l l y . "Notes on t h e O c c u p a t i o n s o f Former S c h o o l b o y s : The Case o f Hausa V i l l a g e , " The N i g e r i a n J o u r n a l o f Economic and S o c i a l S t u d i e s , 2, 2 ( 1 9 6 9 ) , 241-245. H i r s c h m a n , A.O. The S t r a t e g y o f Economic Development. New Haven, C o n n e c t i c u t : Y a l e U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , . 1.958. H u t t o n , John ( e d . ) . Urban C h a l l e n g e i n E a s t A f r i c a . N a i r o b i : E a s t A f r i c a n P u b l i s h i n g House, 1972. I I.L.O. Employment, Incomes and E o u a l i t y : A S t r a t e g y f o r I n c r e a s i n g P r o d u c t i v e Employment i n Kenya. Geneva: I n t e r n a t i o n a l Labour O f f i c e , 1972. J o h n s o n , George E. "The S t r u c t u r e o f R u r a l - U r b a n M i g r a t i o n Models,". E a s t e r n A f r i c a n Economic Review, 1, 1 ( 1 9 7 1 ) , 29-46. J o h n s o n , George and W.E. W h i t e l a w . " U r b a n - R u r a l Income T r a n s f e r s i n Kenya: An e s t i m a t e d R e m i t t a n c e F u n c t i o n " . U n p u b l i s h e d P a p e r , I n s t i t u t e o f Development S t u d i e s , U n i v e r s i t y o f N a i r o b i , Kenya, 1972. 102 - L a q u i a n , A p r o d i c i o A. R u r a l Urban M i g r a n t s and M e t r o p o l i t a n Development. T o r o n t o : I n t e r n a t i o n a l A s s o c i a t i o n f o r M e t r o p o l i t a n R e s e a r c h and Development (INTERMET), 1971. Lee, D o u g l a s s B., J r . "Requiem f o r L a r g e - S c a l e M o d e l s , " J o u r n a l o f t h e Amer i can I n s t i t u t e o f P l a n n e r s (May, 1973), 163-178. Lee, T.H. "Wage D i f f e r e n t i a l , Labour M o b i l i t y and 1Employment i n Taiwan A g r i c u l t u r e " . Paper P r e s e n t e d t o t h e S i n o - A m e r i c a n C o n f e r e n c e on Manpower i n Taiwan, T a i p e i , 1972'. » ,' L e w i s , W. A r t h u r . R e f l e c t i o n s on N i g e r i a ' s Economic Growth. P a r i s : Development C e n t r e , O r g a n i z a t i o n f o r Economic C o - o p e r a t i o n and Development, '1967. L i t t l e , Kenneth, West A f r i c a n U r b a n i z a t i o n : A Study o f V o l u n t a r y A s s o c i a t i o n s i n S o c i a l Change. Cambridge: Cambridge U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1965. • L l o y d , P.C., A.L. Mabogunje, e t a l ( e d s . ) . The C i t y o f Ibadan. London: Cambridge U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1967. Lowry, I r a S. "A S h o r t C o u r s e i n Model D e s i g n , " J o u r n a l o f t h e American I n s t i t u t e o f P l a n n e r s (May, 1965), 158-166. Mabogunje, A k i n L. U r b a n i z a t i o n i n N i g e r i a . London: London U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1968. Mabogunje, A k i n L. "Systems Approach t o a Theory o f R u r a I - U r b a n M i g r a t i o n , " G e o g r a p h i c a l A n a l y s i s ( J a n . , 1970a), 1-18. Mabogunje, A k i n . " M i g r a t i o n P o l i c y and R e g i o n a l Development i n N i g e r i a , " The N i g e r i a n J o u r n a l o f Economic and S o c i a l S t u d i e s , 12, 1 ( 1 9 7 0 b ) , 243-262. Madavo, C E . "Making t h e C i t i e s ' W o r k ' , " A f r i c a R e p o r t (Nov.. 1971) 18-22. McDonald, Stephen L. "Economic F a c t o r s i n Farm O u t m i g r a t i o n : A S u r v e y and E v a l u a t i o n o f t h e L i t e r a t u r e " . U n p u b l i s h e d P a p e r , Department o f E c o n o m i c s , U n i v e r s i t y o f Texas a t A u s t i n , 1971. McGee, T.G. The U r b a n i z a t i o n P r o c e s s i n t h e T h i r d W o r l d : E x p l o r a t i o n s i n S e a r c h o f a Theory. London: G. B e l l & Sons L t d . , 1971.. McQueen, A l b e r t J . "Unemployment' and F u t u r e O r i e n t a t i o n s o f N i g e r i a n S c h o o l - L e a v e r s , " Canadian J o u r n a l o f A f r i c a n S t u d i e s , 3, 2 ( 1 9 6 8 ) , 441-462. M i t c h e l , J . C l y d e . "The Causes o f Labour M i g r a t i o n , " B u i l e t i n o f I n t e r - A f r i c a n Labour I n s t i t u t e , 6, 1 ( 1 9 5 9 ) , 13-42. - 103 - • \ \ M o r r i s , WiI Iiam T. "On t h e A r t o f Model I i n g , " Management S c i e n c e , • S e r . B, 13, 12 ( 1 9 6 7 ) , 707-717. i N i g e r i a n F e d e r a l M i n i s t r y o f E d u c a t i o n . Investment i n E d u c a t i o n : R e p o r t o f t h e Commission on P o s t - s c h o o l C e r t i f i c a t e and H i g h e r E d u c a t i o n i n N i g e r i a . Lagos, 1960. Okurume, Godwin E. "The C o u n t r y s i d e H o l d s t h e Key," A f r i c a R e p o r t (Nov., 1971), 23-26. * Ominde, Simeon H. " I n t e r n a l M i g r a t i o n o f t h e E c o n o m i c a l l y A c t i v e Age Group i n Kenya". Ost A f r i c a n i s c h e S t u d i e n , E d i t e d by H. B e r g e r . Im S e t b s t r e r l a g des W i r t s c h a f t und S o z i a I - g e o g r a p h i s c h e n I n s t i t u t s d e r ' F r i e d r i c h , A l e x a n d e r U n i v e r s i t a t , 1968. P a r s e g i a n , V.L. T h i s C y b e r n e t i c W o r l d . Garden C i t y , New Y o r k : Doubleday & Co., 1972. j I ! ;Rempel, Henry. "Labour M i g r a t i o n i n Urban C e n t r e s and Urban Unemployment • i n Kenya". U n p u b l i s h e d Ph.D. D i s s e r t a t i o n , U n i v e r s i t y o f W i s c o n s i n , M a d i s o n , 1970. •Reynolds, L l o y d G. "Economic Development w i t h S u r p l u s Labour: Some C o m p l i c a t i o n s , " O x f o r d Economic P a p e r s , 2 1 , 1 ( 1 9 6 9 ) , 89-103. R i d d e l I , J . B a r r y . The S p a t i a l Dynamics o f M o d e r n i z a t i o n i n S i e r r a Leone: S t r u c t u r e , D i f f u s i o n and Response. E v a n s t o n : N o r t h w e s t e r n U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1970. R i d d e l I , J . B a r r y and M i l t o n E. Harvey. "The Urban System i n t h e M i g r a - t i o n P r o c e s s : An E v a l u a t i o n o f S t e p w i s e M i g r a t i o n i n S i e r r a Leone," Economic Geography, 48, 3 ( 1 9 7 2 ) , 270-283. R i e d , R o b i n Sue. "The S i g n i f i c a n c e o f Systems f o r t h e P r o f e s s i o n a l P l a n n e r " . U n p u b l i s h e d M a s t e r ' s T h e s i s , U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a , V a n c o u v e r , 1973. R o s s e r , C o l i n . " U r b a n i z a t i o n i n T r o p i c a l A f r i c a : A Demographic I n t r o - d u c t i o n " . A Working P a p e r o f t h e Ford F o u n d a t i o n I n t e r n a t i o n a l U r b a n i z a t i o n S u r v e y . Ford F o u n d a t i o n , New Y o r k , 1972. I Rourke, B.E. and S.K. S a k y i - G y i n a e . " A g r i c u l t u r a l and Urban Wage Rat e s i n Ghana". R e s e a r c h R e p o r t #4, Department o f A g r i c u l t u r a l E c o n o m i c s , U n i v e r s i t y o f Ghana, 1971. Sa b o t , R.H. " E d u c a t i o n , Income D i s t r i b u t i o n and Urban M i g r a t i o n i n . T a n z a n i a " . U n p u b l i s h e d P a p e r , Economic R e s e a r c h B u r e a u , U n i v e r s i t y o f Dar es Salaam, 1972. S t o g d i I I , R a l f M. (ed.)' The P r o c e s s o f Mode I - B u i I d i n g i n t h e B e h a v i o r a l S c i e n c e s . Ohio S t a t e U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1970. The F e d e r a l Government o f N i g e r i a . Second N a t i o n a l Development P l a n 1970- 1974. Lagos: F e d e r a l M i n i s t r y o f I n f o r m a t i o n , 1970. - 104 - Thomas, R o b e r t N. " I n t e r n a l M i g r a t i o n i n L a t i n A m e r i c a : A n a l y s i s o f R e c ent L i t e r a t u r e " . Paper P r e s e n t e d t o t h e N a t i o n a l C o n f e r e n c e f o r L a t i n A m e r i c a n i s t G e o g r a p h e r s , B a l l S t a t e U n i v e r s i t y . M u n c i e , I n d i a n a , 1970. T o d a r o , M i c h a e l P. "A Model o f Labour M i g r a t i o n and Urban Unemployment i n Less Developed C o u n t r i e s , " The A merican Economic Review, 59, 1 ( 1 9 6 9 ) , 138-148. T o d a r o , M i c h a e l P. "Income E x p e c t a t i o n s , R u r a l - U r b a n M i g r a t i o n and Employment i n A f r i c a , " I n t e r n a t i o n a l Labour Review, 104, 5 ( 1 9 7 1 ) , 384-414. U n i t e d N a t i o n s Economic and S o c i a l C o u n c i l . R e p o r t o f t h e Workshop on U r b a n i z a t i o n i n A f r i c a , E/CN.14/170 (ST/TAO/Ser. C/57; ST/SOA/ S e r . T / 4 ) . New Y o r k : U n i t e d N a t i o n s , 1962. U n i t e d N a t i o n s . . World P o p u l a t i o n C o n f e r e n c e , 1965, V o l . IV: M i g r a t i o n , U r b a n i z a t i o n , Economic Development. New Y o r k : U n i t e d N a t i o n s , 1967. •United N a t i o n s . R e p o r t o f t h e U.N. I n t e r r e g i o n a l Seminar on Development P o l i c i e s and P l a n n i n g i n R e l a t i o n t o U r b a n i z a t i o n , ST/TAO/Ser. C/97. New Y o r k : United. N a t i o n s , 1967. U n i t e d N a t i o n s . Symposium on t h e Impact o f U r b a n i z a t i o n on Man's E n v i r - onment, ST/TAO/Ser. C/130. New Y o r k : U n i t e d N a t i o n s , 1971. West A f r i c a . " S e n d i n g N i g e r i a t o S c h o o l , " #2962 (March 25., 1974), 325-326.

Cite

Citation Scheme:

    

Usage Statistics

Country Views Downloads
United States 13 2
Norway 3 0
Japan 3 0
Unknown 2 0
Nigeria 2 0
China 1 0
United Kingdom 1 0
City Views Downloads
Mountain View 9 0
Unknown 7 3
Tokyo 3 0
Redmond 1 0
Bloomington 1 0
Lagos 1 0
Beijing 1 0
Ibadan 1 0
Ashburn 1 0

{[{ mDataHeader[type] }]} {[{ month[type] }]} {[{ tData[type] }]}

Share

Share to:

Comment

Related Items