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The conception of science as deductive formalism in the study of international politics : a critique Genco, Stephen James 1974

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The C o n c e p t i o n o f S c i e n c e a s D e d u c t i v e F o r m a l i s m i n t h e S t u d y o f I n t e r n a t i o n a l P o l i t i c s : A C r i t i q u e b y S t e p h e n J a m e s G e n c o B . A . , S t a n f o r d U n i v e r s i t y , 1 9 7 2 A T h e s i s S u b m i t t e d i n P a r t i a l F u l f i l l m e n t o f t h e R e q u i r e m e n t s f o r t h e D e g r e e o f M a s t e r o f A r t s i n t h e D e p a r t m e n t o f P o l i t i c a l Science W e a c c e p t t h i s t h e s i s a s c o n f o r m i n g t o t h e r e q u i r e d s t a n d a r d T H E U N I V E R S I T Y O F B R I T I S H C O L U M B I A S e p t e m b e r , 1 9 7 4 In p r e s e n t i n g t h i s t h e s i s i n p a r t i a l f u l f i l m e n t o f t h e r e q u i r e m e n t s f o r an a d v a n c e d d e g r e e a t t h e U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a , I a g r e e t h a t t h e L i b r a r y s h a l l m a k e i t f r e e l y a v a i l a b l e f o r r e f e r e n c e a n d s t u d y . I f u r t h e r a g r e e t h a t p e r m i s s i o n f o r e x t e n s i v e c o p y i n g o f t h i s t h e s i s f o r s c h o l a r l y p u r p o s e s may be g r a n t e d by t h e H e a d o f my D e p a r t m e n t o r by h i s r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s . I t i s u n d e r s t o o d t h a t c o p y i n g o r p u b l i c a t i o n o f t h i s t h e s i s f o r f i n a n c i a l g a i n s h a l l n o t be a l l o w e d w i t h o u t my w r i t t e n p e r m i s s i o n . D e p a r t m e n t o f P o l i t i c a l S c i e n c e The U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a V a n c o u v e r 8 , C a n a d a D a t e S e p t e m b e r 3 0 , 1 9 7 4 i A B S T R A C T T h i s t h e s i s e x a m i n e s t h e c o n c e p t i o n o f s c i e n c e a s d e d u c t i v e f o r m a l i s m f r o m t w o p e r s p e c t i v e s . F i r s t , i t c o n s i d e r s t h e p h i l o s o p h i c a l f o u n d a t i o n s o f t w o a s p e c t s o f t h i s c o n c e p t i o n : t h e d e d u c t i v e - n o m o l o g i c a l m o d e l o f e x p l a n a t i o n a n d t h e h y p o t h e t i c o - d e d u c t i v e m o d e l o f t h e o r y . S e c o n d l y , i t c o n s i d e r s a r g u m e n t s f a v o r i n g t h e u s e o f t h e s e m o d e l s i n i n t e r n a t i o n a l p o l i t i c s a n d p o l i t i c a l s c i e n c e a n d e x a m i n e s s e v e r a l d e d u c t i v e t h e o r i e s t h a t h a v e b e e n p u t f o r t h i n i n t e r n a t i o n a l p o l i t i c s . I t c o n c l u d e s t h a t t h e c o n c e p t i o n o f s c i e n c e a s d e d u c t i v e f o r m a l i s m i s i n a d e q u a t e b o t h p h i l o s o p h i c a l l y a n d p r a c t i c a l l y a s a m o d e l f o r t h e s c i e n t i f i c d e v e l o p m e n t o f i n t e r n a t i o n a l p o l i t i c s a n d r e c o m m e n d s t h a t s c h o l a r s i n t h i s f i e l d p u r s u e r e s e a r c h b a s e d u p o n m o r e v i a b l e a l t e r n a t -i v e c o n c e p t i o n s o f s c i e n c e . TABLE OF CONTENTS Page Abstract i I. Introduction 1 A. The Role of Philosophy of Science i n Understanding Social and P o l i t i c a l Science 3 1. Different Approaches to Philosophy of Science . . 3 2. How Can Philosophy of Science Help Facilitate Better Social and P o l i t i c a l Research? 7 B. The General Characteristics of Science 19 1. Explanation 20 2. Theory 21 II. The Philosophical Source: Formal Deductive Models of Explanation and Theory . . . . . 23 A. The General Characteristics of Deductive Formalism . . 24 1. Deduction . 24 2. Abstraction 25 3. Historical Note 27 B. Deductive-Nomological Explanation: The Covering Law Model 28 1. Form 28 2. Content 39 3. Context of Evaluation 47 4. Context of Application 49 C. Hypothetico-Deductive Theory 51 1. Form 52 2. Content • . . 58 3. Context of Application 65 4. Context of Evaluation . 66 a. Discovery 66 b. Justification 71 III. Arguments Favoring Deductive Formalism i n International P o l i t i c s and P o l i t i c a l Science 79 A. Oran Young 79 B. Morton Kaplan . 84 C. Davis Bob row 86 D. David Easton 86 E. William Rlker 88 F. Robert Holt et a l 89 G. A. James Gregor 92 IV. Applications of Deductive Formalism i n International Po l i t i c s . 96 A. Deductive Theories 97 i i i Page 1 . R e a c t i o n E q u a t i o n s a n d A r m s R a c e M o d e l s 9 7 2 . Game T h e o r y a n d D e t e r r e n c e S t u d i e s 1 0 0 3 . E c o n o m i c a n d R a t i o n a l i s t i c M o d e l s o f I n t e r n a t i o n a l P r o c e s s e s . . 1 0 2 a . C o l l e c t i v e G o o d s , O l i g o p o l i e s , B u r e a u c r a c y , a n d G e n e r a l T h e o r i e s o f P o l i t i c s 1 0 4 b . R i k e r ' s T h e o r y o f P o l i t i c a l C o a l i t i o n s . . . 1 0 8 V . C o n c l u s i o n 1 1 9 V I . F o o t n o t e s 1 2 3 . V I I . . B i b l i o g r a p h y 1 4 4 iv It i s a strange science indeed which establishes as the ultimate test of theoretical worth the rigor with which a methodological formulation is defended rather than the significance of the hypothesis advanced. Norman Jacobson For the basic principle of empiricism i s , after a l l , to increase the empirical content of what-ever knowledge we claim to possess. Paul Feyerabend There i s a story of a drunkard searching under a street lamp for his house key, which he had dropped some distance away. Asked why he didn't look where he had dropped i t , he replied, "It's lighter here. Abraham Kaplan I. INTRO UCTION For at least the last twenty years — perhaps we can best date i t from the publication of David Easton's The P o l i t i c a l System i n 19531 — p o l i t i c a l science has entertained a nearly constant 'Great Debate1 con-cerning the methods, goals, and, occasionally, the epistemological 2 foundations of the discipline. For the most part, this debate has been conducted at the methodological level; f i r s t under the rubric of "tradi-tionalism versus behavioralism," and more recently i n terms of "behavior-alism versus post-behavioralism."^ But other fronts have from time to time been engaged, and today we can even boast, i f we are so inclined, a thriving literature devoted to debate about the Great Debate.5 To a student of p o l i t i c s i n the 1970s, this legacy of self-conscious-ness i s at once challenging, perplexing, and frustrating. Within i t s scope have appeared some of the best thoughts available on the nature of social and p o l i t i c a l inquiry. At the same time, i t has produced some of the most simple-minded, polemical, and professionally embarrassing rubbish to be found anywhere in "scholarly" writing. The challenge, of course, i s to separate the wheat from the chaff, and thereby to gain some insight into the character of both p o l i t i c a l reality and the tools av a i l -able for probing i t . This thesis i s meant to i l l u s t r a t e one possible way of carrying out this task. The Great Methodological Debate has, with only a few important ex-ceptions, exhibited a crucial flaw; i t i s superficial. This superficiality can be held responsible for i t s characteristic lack of focus, i t s redundancy, i t s confusion, and i t s failure to resolve i t s e l f i n any fundamental way. I believe these fallings are a result of the paucity of truly radical -— 2 in the original sense of the term — analyses of the foundations of the different methodological positions advocated in the debate. This type of analysis has only recently begun to appear, most often in the 'debate about the debate' referred to above, and I, at least, am of the opinion that we need much more of i t . 6 Such analysis is by definition, philosophical. And i f the subject we are concerned with Is the science of politics, then the area within philosophy to which we should turn is philosophy of science. Thus,in this thesis I will examine a particular approach to the study of interna-tional politics in terms of its philosophical underpinnings. The term "science" is problematic; we can correctly speak of different "conceptions" of science. These conceptions, I hold, are at the roots of the different methodological approaches to the scientific study of politics that are the usual terms of debate. If we can understand these conceptions and appreciate their strengths and weaknesses, I believe we can say more about the potential success of the respective approaches than we can if we merely examine the approaches themselves. The conception of science often referred to as deductive formalism constitutes an Important school in phi-losophy of science and, from our point of view, Is perhaps most prominently associated with the idea that the form and methods of the physical sciences are the proper models for emulation by the social sciences. The general principles of this conception are, with varying degrees of specificity, ad-hered to by many political and social scientists. The question of its adequacy as a model for inquiry is therefore an important one. This is the question I will examine in the following p^ges. I have focussed my analysis specifically on only one sub-field of 3 p o l i t i c a l s c i e n c e , t h e s t u d y o f i n t e r n a t i o n a l p o l i t i c s . T h i s f o c u s d o e s n o t i m p l y a n y s p e c i a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f i n t e r n a t i o n a l p h e n o m e n a , b u t f o r t h e m o s t p a r t m e r e l y r e f l e c t s my s u b s t a n t i v e i n t e r e s t s i n t h i s p a r t i c u l a r a r e a a n d my d e s i r e t o l i m i t t h e s c o p e o f e x a m p l e s a n d r e f e r e n c e t o r e l e v a n t l i t e r a t u r e . A n o t h e r f a c t o r i s t h e r e c e n t a p p e a r a n c e a m o n g t h e t h e o r e t i c a l w o r k i n i n t e r n a t i o n a l p o l i t i c s o f a f e w e l o q u e n t p l e a s f o r a d e d u c t i v e f o r m a l i s t a p p r o a c h t o t h e f i e l d t h a t d e s e r v e c a r e f u l e x a m i n a t i o n . T h i s f o c u s w i l l n o t , o f c o u r s e , p r e v e n t u s f r o m c o n s i d e r i n g r e l e v a n t s t u d i e s t h a t a r e a d d r e s s e d t o p o l i t i c a l s c i e n c e g e n e r a l l y , o r e v e n , i n a f e w c a s e s , t o a l l o f s o c i a l s c i e n c e . G i v e n t h e r e l a t i v e h o m o g e n e i t y o f t h e p r o b l e m s c o n f r o n t e d i n t h e s o c i a l s c i e n c e s , t h e d e l i m i t a t i o n o f f o c u s s h o u l d n o t b e c r i t i c a l t o t h e o v e r a l l e f f i c a c y o f t h e s t u d y . F o r o n e o f t h e a d v a n t a g e s o f a r a d i c a l a n a l y s i s i s t h e e x t e n s i v e r a n g e o f a p p l i c a b -i l i t y i t c a n a t t a i n . T h u s , t h i s c r i t i q u e o f d e d u c t i v e f o r m a l i s m i n t h e s t u d y o f i n t e r n a t i o n a l p o l i t i c s s h o u l d , i n i t s b r o a d i m p l i c a t i o n s , b e r e l e v a n t t o p o l i t i c a l s c i e n c e a s a w h o l e a n d t o a l l o f s o c i a l s c i e n c e a s w e l l . A . T h e R o l e o f P h i l o s o p h y o f S c i e n c e i n U n d e r s t a n d i n g S o c i a l a n d P o l i t i c a l P o l i t i c a l S c i e n c e 1. D i f f e r e n t A p p r o a c h e s t o P h i l o s o p h y o f S c i e n c e A s a f i e l d , p h i l o s o p h y o f s c i e n c e s u b s u m e s q u i t e a n a r r a y o f a p -p r o a c h e s a n d a t t i t u d e s t o t h e s t u d y o f s c i e n c e . O r , t o p u t i t a n o t h e r w a y , t h e r e a r e m a n y p h i l o s o p h i e s o f s c i e n c e w i t h i n p h i l o s o p h y o f s c i e n c e . T h e p r e s e n t d i s c u s s i o n i s m e a n t t o f a m i l i a r i z e t h e r e a d e r w i t h t h e m o s t i m -p o r t a n t o f t h e s e a p p r o a c h e s , a n d t o h i g h l i g h t t h e w a y s i n w h i c h t h e y 4 interact, and ultimately conflict, with each other. This w i l l hopefully c l a r i f y some of the more fundamental issues, which often remain implicit, underlying much of the debate about deductive formalism we w i l l be con-cerned with further on. At the most general level, we can denote the scope or domain of philosophy of science, and observe how i t contrasts to the domain of science i t s e l f : The domain of any science i s the material of that part of the world with which i t i s concerned. The language of science consists of propositions about the world. The domain of the philosophy of science i s the activity of science. The language of phi-losophy of science consists of propositions about the activity of science. In an a r t i c l e devoted to a taxonomic overview of the f i e l d , Frnan McMullin notes that there are essentially two types of propositions made by philosophers of science when they address themselves to the question that i s our primary concern with reference to international p o l i t i c s : How does one (an individual or a discipline) go about being scientific? The f i r s t type i s grounded upon considerations McMullin describes as "of the phenomelogical 'don't you see that i t must...' variety," whereas the second i s grounded upon "a chronicle of the strategies that 'successful' g scientists have followed." If we were to attempt to draw a single demarcation line for the purpose of dividing philosophy of science into two camps, a line between these two statements would probably be most suc-cessful. For they lead to two quite distinct senses of science. In the f i r s t sense, science becomes "a collection of propositions, ranging from reports of observations to the most abstract theories accounting for these 5 observations." It i s , basically, "the end product of science." In the second sense, science is "the ensemble of activities of the scientist in the pursuit of his goal of scientific observation and understanding." This includes science in the first sense, but is far broader and vaguer. In fact, as McMullin points out, i t would be impossible to convey this sense of science fully. "The interest in [science in the second sense] is only this, that in a very definite sense, i t serves to explain how q [science in the fir s t sense] came to be formulated in the fir s t place." From these two senses of science, the two primary approaches within philosophy of science follow. The best way to differentiate these approaches is to make explicit the warrants or justifications that each enlists in its defense. McMullin bases his taxonomy on warrants of two types; external to the practice of science, and internal. External warrants are also of two types, metaphysical and l o g i c a l . ^ A metaphysically-warranted philosophy of science takes as its starting point a general theory of knowing and being that is prior to any analysis of the actual procedures followed in science. It examines science in light of this theory. Such an approach is taken, for example, by Plato, Aristotle, and Descartes in their philosophies of science. It is clear that this type of procedure leads to propositions of the 'don't you see i t must...' variety mentioned above. Although obviously important, especially in a historical sense, we will not have the oppor-tunity to examine metaphysical philosophies of science in this study. A logically-warranted philosophy of science also takes its j u s t i f i -cation from outside the practice of science, but in a different way. The 6 l o g i c i a n , a fter an examination of the practice of science, reconstructs what he sees as the idea l i z e d formal version of the l o g i c i n t r i n s i c i n science. This reconstruction i s sometimes normative, but most often purely r a t i o n a l . I t s s t a r t i n g point i s the set of rules that constitutes formal l o g i c . The purpose of science, once the reconstruction has been achieved, i s to attempt to a t t a i n as close an approximation of i t s i n -t r i n s i c l o g i c as possible. The propositions of philosophy are thus primarily prescriptive. This i s e s s e n t i a l l y the approach to science taken by deductive formalism. An internally-warranted philosophy of science focusses on the on-going practice of science i t s e l f , but i s more than a mere history of science. Although i t r e l i e s on a description of how s c i e n t i s t s work, th i s description i s not produced as an end i n i t s e l f . I t i s used to make philosophical judgements about the adequacy of s c i e n t i f i c research, i n l i g h t of the h i s t o r i c a l record. As McMullin puts i t , i n t e r n a l l y warranted philosophy of science ...often involves a careful reading of the history of science as a warrant f o r the p h i l o -p h i c a l claim made. Such work accomplishes both a h i s t o r i c a l and a philosophical goal. The writ e r t r i e s to illuminate the h i s t o r i c a l instance with a l l the relevant philosophical analysis he can produce so that', despite i t s s i n g u l a r i t y , he can understand i t as best he can. lie also uses the documented h i s t o r i c a l instance to make a fur-ther philosophical point: i t serves not merely £^ as i l l u s t r a t i o n , but as evidence for this point. This approach, involving an interaction of history and philosophy, can be seen as pres c r i p t i v e as w e l l as descriptive. I t s prescriptions cannot be construed i n the sweeping sense of the above two approaches, 7 however, as i t s warrant is merely the activities of 'successful' scientists, not a metaphysical or logical principle. This type of ap-proach, usually referred to as hi s t o r i c a l or contextual, i s followed by many of the c r i t i c s of deductive formalism to be discussed below. This is not surprising, since the most vulnerable point i n the logician's programme i s his conceptualization of the 'logic i n t r i n s i c i n science'. In contrast, whatever i s 'intrinsic' i n science should be most easily discovered through a meticulous examination of i t s h i s t o r i c a l develop-ment. These sketches of the different approaches to philosophy of science, i t seems worth stressing, are very substantial simplifications. I have presented them as such here only for the sake of i l l u s t r a t i o n and easy differentiation. In fact, each approach is far from monolithic and contains many 'sub-approaches', some of which contradict each other in fundamental ways. In addition, there are even a few areas i n which the approaches are quite compatible with each other i n their prescript tions or descriptions. These subtleties w i l l become more apparent when we come to a more detailed examination of deductive formalism i n section II. For our present purposes — 1 exposing the casus b e l l i as i t were — these caricatures w i l l suffice. 2 . How Can Philosophy of Science Help Facilitate Better Social and  P o l i t i c a l Research? Up to this point, I have said very l i t t l e about the goals or under-lying assumptions of this thesis. I would now like to discuss these issues more f u l l y , and at the same time note some more general 8 considerations concerning the relevance of philosophy of science to political inquiry. In the above discussion of the Great Methodological Debate, I posited that philosophy of science could help lead to a better understanding of the nature of political phenomena by establishing a level of analysis prior to the usual methodological one. This conclusion is shared by John Gunnell, who states that "the development of complex analytical schema and quantitative techniques is no substitute for philo-sophically specifying the character of social and political phenomena 13 and the nature of explanation." But merely making the claim, of course, is hardly enough. The question before us now must be: How can this better understanding be achieved? In the process of answering this ques-tion, I hope to be able to explain more precisely what this thesis is meant to accomplish. I can identify at least three ways in which philosophical specula-tion benefits political research: (1) as a guard against personal biases, (2) as a heuristic device, and (3) as a means of identifying and evaluat-ing the explicit and implicit philosophical positions of other social scientists. The last of these is essentially how I intend to employ philosophical analysis in the present study. We can consider each in turn. (1) The 'value-free' social scientists has finally died a slow and somewhat painful death, to the relief of most. In his place we now have the 'value-conscious^ social scientist , striving to make his value assumptions as explicit as possible. The point of the matter is that some values are less valuable than others, especially when they inhibit 9 effective research. The same holds for personal opinions. A philoso-phical perspective can help a social scientist ascertain the Justifica-tions for his values and opinions and evaluate them accordingly. In Eugene Miller's words: .. . i t is very difficult today for a political scientist to establish a direct relationship to the phenomena of political life and see political things as they are. From his undergraduate years, the political scientist is taught to see politics in terms of certain methodologies and conceptual frameworks. These become filters or screens that restrict and distort his vision of political reality. Before he can see political things as they are and understand them, the political scientist must identify his inherited opinions about politics and science and subject them to critical scrutiny. These inherited opinions are but residues and abbreviations of comprehensive philosophical statements that originated in the past. In order to clarify his opinions, there-fore, the political scientist is forced to give attention to the history of philosophy, where speculation about politics is Inseparable from speculation about the character of human know-ledge. By working his way back to the source of his opinions about political things and how to study them, he is able to understand these opinions more clearly and to assess them more accurately.^ Although i t is perhaps questionable that all opinions are in-herited from comprehensive philosophical positions, i t seems certain that at least some are, and that these are susceptible to careful analysis. Thus, a consideration of philosophical issues can act as a guard against personal biases. It should be noted, of course, that such consideration must be made in the spirit of self-criticism, rather than self-justification, i f i t is to avoid merely hardening already held opinions and values. 10 (2) When reading through the literature i n philosophy of science, one cannot help but be struck by certain parallels between the types of problems dealt with these and those dealt with i n social science. The philosophy of science i s often concerned with studying the s c i e n t i f i c community or individual scientist i n terms of the social milieu within which they function. Consider the following passage from Abraham Kaplan: Every s c i e n t i f i c community i s a society in the small, so to speak,with i t s own agencies of social control. Officers of the professional associations, honored elders, editors of journals, reviewers, faculties, committees on grants, fellowships, and prizes — a l l exert a steady pressure for conform-i t y to professional standards, as their counterparts i n the larger society provide sanctions for the more general norms. In certain respects s c i e n t i f i c training functions to produce not only competence but also a kind of respectability, essential to membership i n the professional community. Doc-toral examinations, most candidates agree, have much i n common with the tortures of i n i t i a t i o n rites — with the added tribulation of fear of failure: no one has ever had to repeat his Bar Mitzvah. 1 5 In this context, the philosopher must face such problems, for instance, as the relative importance of 'causes' and 'reasons' i n the explanation of sc i e n t i f i c change, or the relative effects of 'internal' or 'external-environmental' factors i n determining the structure of a sc i e n t i f i c community at a given time.*** Similar problems crop up con-tinually i n social research. The manner i n which these problems are approached i n philosophy of science, therefore, can be seen as informative to the social scien-t i s t . As one example, we can consider how Stephen Toulmin relates some of his conclusions concerning the structure of science to the structure of society: u In the case of science...the different concepts of a s c i e n t i f i c discipline are related more loosely than philosophers have assumed. Instead of being introduced at one and the same time, and a l l of a piece, as a single logical system with a single s c i e n t i f i c purpose, different concepts and theo-ries are introduced into a science independently, at different times and for different purposes. ...This means recognizing that an entire science comprises an 'historical population' of logically independent concepts and theories, each with i t s separate history, structure, and implications. In sociology, likewise, the different i n s t i -tutions of a society are related more loosely than has recently been assumed. Instead of being i n t e l l i g i b l e only i f considered a l l of a piece, as a single integrated 'social system', they need to be thought of i n more his t o r i c a l terms, since they were originally established at different times and with different ends i n view. ...This, too, means moving beyond the systematic theory of social structure and the revolutionary theory of social change which i s i t s antithesis, and allow-ing that entire societies comprise 'historical populations' of institutions, each with i t s own history and internal structure.^ Toulmin i s more forthright than most philosophers of science In noting the links between his f i e l d and social science. To a sociologist dissatisfied with the adequacy of systematic sociology, or to his p o l i -t i c a l science counterpart who maintains reservations about the useful-ness of the ' p o l i t i c a l system' as a focus of analysis, a comparison such as Toulmin's can prove of heuristic value i n ordering his thinking about possible alternatives. Many more examples could be cited. The point i s that the emphasis and techniques employed i n philosophy of science are often refreshingly divergent from those i n social science. As a result, new perspectives on old problems can become available, and new directions i n research can be initiated. (3) It seems safe to agree with Miller's observation that "philo-sophy of science is one major source of the prevailing opinions i n p o l i -18 t i c a l science about methodology." Indeed, this i s one important assump-tion underlying the present study. As a result, irrespective of one's personal views concerning either science or philosophy, at least a minimal understanding of the different positions within the f i e l d can be extremely valuable i n understanding the arguments of other p o l i t i c a l and social scientists who bother to be explici t about the foundations of their me-thodological or theoretical approaches. In some cases, a cursory ob-servation of which philosophers of science are cited i n the footnotes of an a r t i c l e can reveal more about i t s implicit suppositions than w i l l a careful reading of the text i t s e l f . I cannot go so far as Miller, however, when he claims that philo-sophy of science "has exercised a tremendous influence over the minds of p o l i t i c a l scientists, who have l i t t l e choice but to keep up with develop-19 ments i n the philosophy of science and choose sides i n i t s disputes." In my opinion, the penetration has not yet been nearly as complete as he envisions, and this leads to another assumption that underlies this thesis. Gunnell has pointed out that reference to philosophers of science need not necessarily Imply a firm acceptance or even understanding of their positions. "Although i n the literature of contemporary social science there are frequent references to certain works in the philosophy • of science and to philosophical issues related to methodology, these are more often i n the context of broad pronouncements and shibboleths relat-ing to the nature of science, i t s goals, and the character of i t s 13 20 reasoning." My own experience leads me to conclude that this com-plaint i s essentially correct; many p o l i t i c a l scientists, at least, appear quick to mouth formula-like platitudes about science apparently with l i t t l e consideration of their philosophical foundations. One pur-pose of this study, accordingly, w i l l be to put this perception to a b i t more rigorous test, and attempt to discern how prevalent this practice actually i s among p o l i t i c a l scientists who claim adherence to the formal deductive conception of science. Gunnell also makes a further indictment, a consideration of which w i l l occupy the bulk of this thesis. He asserts that social scientists' uncritical acceptance of these simplistic pronouncements about science results from two unsubstantiated assumptions; f i r s t , that the physical sciences are the proper model for the development of the social selences, and second, that the conception of science as deductive formalism i s an adequate representation of the structure and functioning of physical science. He charges, however, that upon closer examination, both these assumptions are incorrect; that social scientists ...have dogmatically and superficially embraced a particular, and indeed controversial, model of science and a position on the unity of empirical inquiry advocated by certain philosophers of science without considering alternative views or the applic-a b i l i t y of such a model to the problems of explana-tion with which they are confronted. In other words, the so-called "behavioral" approach in p o l i t i c a l science may be c r i t i c i z e d from at least two per-spectives: f i r s t , the adequacy of both i t s under-standing and application of the logic of natural science, and, second, the relevance of the natural-i s t i c approach, even i f properly understood, for the explanation of social phenomena.^1 14 It i s clear, to return to our f i r s t point, that i n order to ef-fectively evaluate Gunnell's assertion as to the "dogmatic and super-f i c i a l " character of some social scientists' use of the deductive approach to philosophy of science, we must ourselves be conversant i n that f i e l d . Moreover, the outcome of such an evaluation could have a profound effect on the course of research, i f not throughout p o l i t i c a l science, at least on the part of certain individuals. Thus, by identifying and apprais-ing the philosophical positions held by other social scientists, philoso-phy of science can help f a c i l i t a t e better research. Essentially, the present study can be seen as an attempt to carry out an examination of the two accusations made by Gunnel1. This w i l l be done i n the following way: F i r s t , i n section II, we w i l l closely scru-tinize the deductive formalist conception of science i n order to ascer-tain i t s "relevance...for the explanation of social phenomena," espe-c i a l l y the phenomena of international p o l i t i c s , as well as i t s relevance to the task of explanation i n general. The underlying question that w i l l guide this inquiry w i l l be: How can the deductive model of science help students of International p o l i t i c s become better scientists and conduct their discipline i n terms of effective and efficient s c i e n t i f i c proce-dures? Next, in sections III and IV, we w i l l turn to a consideration of p o l i t i c a l scientists' "understanding and application" of the deductive model. Section III w i l l be concerned with the question of understanding. We w i l l examine several prominent arguments put forth by p o l i t i c a l scientists i n favor of a deductive approach either to the discipline as a whole or to selected parts of i t , and attempt to ascertain the accuracy 15 with which these arguments reflect the philosophical position they are advocating. We w i l l be primarily interested i n why these scholars think ueauctive formalism is relevant to p o l i t i c a l science, and how they pro-pose the model can best be applied to specific problem areas. In section IV, we w i l l deal directly with applications of the deductive ap-proach to international p o l i t i c s . The goal here w i l l be to discover how adequately deductive models perform i n terms of making i n t e l l i g i b l e the empirical phenomena they examine. This w i l l constitute a practical test of deductive formalism that w i l l supplement the philosophical test in section II. It w i l l also serve the further function of comparing the methods used by deductively-oriented p o l i t i c a l scientists to those presented i n the philosophical model. A few words are i n order about why this examination w i l l be pre-sented i n terms of a critique, as opposed to a mere appraisal or dis-cussion. In extolling the virtues of radical analysis above, I failed to mention a d i f f i c u l t problem to which i t i s susceptible. We might refer to this as the problem of a "justificatory regress." Each level of analysis seems to imply a more fundamental level, which most be ex-amined i n order to j u s t i f y conclusions reached at the f i r s t level. This second level then requires j u s t i f i c a t i o n at a third level, and so on. Eventually, however, although the exact point is always somewhat arbitrary, we must stop justifying and accept some assumptions as s e l f -evident, at least in our own eyes. Otherwise, we are liable to lose contact with the substantive problem that prompted the inquiry i n the 16 f i r s t place. The reason this thesis has been characterized as a cri-*-tique i s because, at this most fundamental level, the assumptions about science I hold as self-evident are, as far as I can t e l l , contradictory to the most basic assumptions of deductive formalism. So, i n order to understand the thrust of this critique, these assumptions should be made explicit. I hold as self-evident the assumption that a science, f i r s t and foremost, must be dedicated to the explication, to as great a degree as possible, of the subject matter with which i t i s concerned. This i s the point underlying the quotes from Norman Jacobson and Paul Feyerabend which precede this introduction. It i s the content of international po-l i t i c s — no matter how elusive, analytically obstinate, or ambiguous i t may be — which must be our f i r s t priority concern. Thus, I also hold as self-evident the assumption that i t i s fundamentally bad science to attempt to truncate or distort a subject of inquiry i n order to mold i t to a preconceived notion of methodological necessity. Conversely, i t follows that i t is good science to continually search for new methodolo-gical techniques that better illuminate and adapt to the subject under consideration. These assumptions, I think, also underlie the work of Abraham Kaplan, and, for this reason, the reader w i l l note his being referred to approvingly at various points throughout this thesis. In particular, Kaplan's conceptions of s c i e n t i f i c autonomy, logic-in-use, and recon-structed logic are relevant to the points under discussion. The auton-omy of inquiry must be a fundamental principle of successful science. Kaplan defines i t as follows: 17 ...the various sciences, taken together, are not colonies subject to governance of logic, method-ology, philosophy of science, or any other dis-cipline whatever, but are., and of right ought to be, free and independent. Following John Dewey, I shall refer to this declaration of s c i e n t i f i c independence as the principle of autonomy of inquiry. It i s the principle that the pursuit of truth i s ac-countable to nothing and to no one not a part of that pursuit i t s e l f . The distinction between logic-in-use and reconstructed logic i s equally fundamental: ...scientists and philosophers use a logic — they have a cognitive style which Is more or less logical — and some of them formulate i t e x p l i c i t l y . I c a l l the former the logic-in-use, and the latter the reconstructed logic. We can no more take them to be identical or even assume an exact correspondence between them, than we can i n the case of the decline of Rome and Gibbon's account of i t , a patient's fever and his physician's explanation of i t . 2 3 The important thing to remember about logic-in-use is that i t i s a variable concept; there are many different logics-in-use and the differences between them are not always susceptible to normative analysis. In Kaplan's words: That the world of ideas has no barriers, within or without, does not c a l l for one true "logic" to govern i t . The conviction that there i s such a logic — as i t happens, ours — i s a parochial-ism like those of which comparative ethnology made us painfully aware in the course of the last century. The myth of a "natural logic", defining a universal rationality, has been penetratingly analyzed by Benjamin Lee Whorf and his successors among linguists and anthropologists. Not only language and culture affect the logic-in-use, but also the state of know-ledge, the stage of inquiry, and the special con-ditions of the particular problem. 2 4 Likewise, there are many reconstructed logics. These, however, are more susceptible to normative judgement, at least among themselves. 1 8 T h e i r u l t i m a t e t e s t , h o w e v e r , m u s t b e t h e s u c c e s s w i t h w h i c h t h e y r e f l e c t t h e l o g i c - i n - u s e o f t h e a c t i v i t y w i t h w h i c h t h e y a r e c o n c e r n e d . T h u s , " a r e c o n s t r u c t e d l o g i c i s i t s e l f , i n e f f e c t , a h y p o t h e s i s . " A s w i t h o t h e r h y p o t h e s e s , a s t i m e g o e s o n i t may b e c o m e m o r e a n d m o r e a w k w a r d t o " f i t " t h e h y p o -t h e s i s t o t h e f a c t s — h e r e , t h e f a c t s c o n s t i t u t e d b y t h e l o g i c - i n - u s e . I t i s n o t a q u e s t i o n o f w h e t h e r t h e f a c t s c a n b e s o c o n s t r u e d » h u t r a t h e r w h e t h e r i t i s s t i l l w o r t h w h i l e t o d o s o , w h e t h e r t h e r e c o n s t r u c t i o n i n q u e s t i o n c o n t i n u e s t o t h r o w l i g h t o n t h e s o u n d o p e r a t i o n s a c t u a l l y b e i n g u s e d . " T h e a s s u m p t i o n s p u t f o r t h a b o v e c a n b e r e s t a t e d c o n c i s e l y i n t e r m s o f t h i s d i s t i n c t i o n : l o g i c - i n - u s e m u s t b e a n a l y t i c a l l y p r i o r t o r e -c o n s t r u c t e d l o g i c . I f e e l t h a t i f t h i s r u l e i s n o t a l w a y s k e p t i n m i n d , t h e n t h e d i s t i n c t i o n b e c o m e s m u d d l e d , a n d t h e r e s u l t c a n b e s e r i o u s l y d e t r i m e n t a l t o s c i e n t i f i c p r o g r e s s a n d t h e a u t o n o m y o f i n q u i r y . A g a i n , t h i s f e e l i n g i s s h a r e d b y K a p l a n : . •  , • T h e g r e a t d a n g e r i n c o n f u s i n g t h e . l o g i c - i n - u s e w i t h , a p a r t i c u l a r r e c o n s t r u c t e d l o g i c , a n d e s p e c i a l l y a , , h i g h l y i d e a l i z e d o n e , i s t h a t t h e r e b y t h e a u t o n o m y o f s c i e n c e i s s u b t l y s u b v e r t e d . T h e n o r m a t i v e f o r c e , . o f , t h e l o g i c h a s t h e e f f e c t , n o t n e c e s s a r i l y o f i m -p r o v i n g t h e l o g i c - i n - u s e , b u t o n l y o f b r i n g i n g i t i n c l o s e r c o n f o r m i t y , w i t h t h e i m p o s e d r e c o n s t r u c t i o n . I t i s o f t e n s a i d t h a t b e h a v i o r a l s c i e n c e s h o u l d s t o p t r y i n g t o i m i t a t e p h y s i c s . I b e l i e v e t h a t t h i s r e c -o m m e n d a t i o n i s a m i s t a k e : , t h e p r e s u m p t i o n i s c e r -t a i n l y , i n f a v o r o f t h o s e o p e r a t i o n s o f t h e u n d e r -s t a n d i n g w h i c h h a v e a l r e a d y s h o w n t h e m s e l v e s t o b e s o . p r e e m i n e n t l y s u c c e s s f u l i n t h e p u r s u i t o f t r u t h . W h a t i s i m p o r t a n t , . I b e l i e v e , I s , t h a t b e h a v i o r a l s c i e n c e s h o u l d s t o p t r y i n g t o i m i t a t e o n l y w h a t a p a r t i c u l a r r e c o n s t r u c t i o n c l a i m s p h y s i c s t o b e . & T h i s b r i n g s u s , t h e n , t o t h e p o i n t m a d e i n t h e t h i r d q u o t e w h i c h p r e c e d e s t h i s i n t r o d u c t i o n . T h i s s t u d y w a s p r o m p t e d b y a n o p i n i o n t h - : . t h e u s e o f d e d u c t i v e f o r m a l i s m t o p u r s u e a s c i e n c e o f i n t e r n a t i o n a l 19 p o l i t i c s i s akin to the drunkard's use of the street lamp to find his key. The light may be better for searching, but the prospects of success, which must be our ultimate concern, are better enhanced elsewhere. Merely to say a l l this, of course, i s only a f i r s t step to produc-ing a convincing argument. A l l we have seen so far is why this thesis 27 constitutes a critique. Following a few more preliminary remarks con-cerning the framework within which the analysis w i l l be made, I w i l l attempt to develop such an argument. B. The General Characteristics of Science: A Framework for Analysis i n Terms of Form, Content, and Context Science, I have suggested, i s a problematic notion, amenable to various interpretations. This i s not meant to imply, however, that these different interpretations have nothing in common. In fact, there are some characteristics of science that are accepted as legitimate by near ly a l l philosophers of science and scientists alike. These character-i s t i c s , i t should be emphasized, cannot i n any way be construed as the 'core' or 'essence' of science simply because of their ubiquity. More correctly, they can be seen as the boundaries or framework within which the different interpretations become meaningful. They are, i n themselves, f a i r l y useless i n any role except as organizing devices. The two characteristics of science I w i l l use to organize this ex-amination of deductive formalism are explanation and theory. This choice relies on what appears to be a general consensus that (1) explanation consists of making empirical phenomena comprehensible and i s a primary goal of science, and (2) theories make explanations comprehensible, and 20 28 thus contribute to this goal of science. Of course, different approaches, while agreeing as to these goals, are in sharp disagreement as to how they can be attained. We can now attempt to outline a framework within which these views can be compared. 29 1. Explanation Explanation is certainly not the only goal of science; prediction 30 and control are two others that immediately come to mind. These can be considered i n light of their relationship to explanation, however, since the three of them are highly interrelated. Prediction, especially, w i l l occupy our attention further on. For now, we want to look at explanation in as broad a manner as possible i n order to ascertain i t s general char-acteristics. These characteristics, then, can be employed as categories i n our examination of deductive formalism. Zn addition, they should be capable of acting as a framework within which different approaches to ex-planation can be compared and evaluated. ,. At the most general level, we can say that a s c i e n t i f i c explanation is a group of statements. These statements must stand i n some sort of relation-to each other; that i s , the explanation must have a form. This ,form can. range anywhere from a tight, purely logical relationship to a loose, connotative structure. Secondly, a s c i e n t i f i c explanation must have a substantive content. This simply means that i t must explain 'some-thing' ,,. and. this something must have a referent i n the -empirical w < ? r l d . Thirdly, the,explanation.mustrhave a context. . There seem to be two types of contexts that,influence an explanation. The f i r s t might be called the -context of application, and i s the context within which the explanation 21 makes sense. I t includes the totality of 'already understood' things which give prior meaning to the terms and scope of the explanation. The second might be called the context of evaluation, and i s the context with-i n which the explanation i s judged. It includes the types of rules or norms that are applicable to the explanation i n various circumstances. These three characteristics — form, content, and context — appear to be 31 common to a l l explanations, and w i l l constitute the framework within which we w i l l examine the deductive approach to explanation. The main problem we w i l l be interested i n i s that of explanatory completeness. What, i n the deductive view, qualifies as a complete1 ex-planation? How i s this characterization relevant to international p o l i -tics? Under what conditions are complete deductive explanations available in international p o l i t i c s and what research benefits can be accrued from them? 32 2. Theory The framework we w i l l use to examine the deductive conception of theory i s essentially the same as that used to examine explanation. Thus, the analysis w i l l be focussed of the form, content, context of application, and context of evaluation of deductive theories. Theory, however, being a b i t more complicated concept than explanation, encompasses a greater variety of problems. Therefore, in addition to the question of what constitute a complete theory, we w i l l be concerned with the questions of how a complete theory can be b u i l t , and how i t can be tested once i t i s bu i l t . These questions are important to the development of a science of international p o l i t i c s . A proper consideration of them w i l l require an 22 extension of the above framework i n terms of a more careful differentia-tion of the context of evaluation of a theory. Philosophers of science say notoriously l i t t l e about the building of theories, primarily because i t i s often an extremely subjective process and therefore d i f f i c u l t to analyze systematically. The aost common technique used to avoid discussion of theory building i s to note that i t i s an aspect of the "context of discovery" as opposed to the "context of j u s t i f i c a t i o n . " These are the two primary categories within the context of evaluation. They were introduced by Hans Reichenbach i n 1938 and have often proven quite valuable as analytic tools. The distinc-tion i s based on the "well-known differences between a thinker's way of 33 finding this theorem and his way of presenting i t before the public." The latter i s seen as susceptible to logical analysis, while the former i s not. Thus, "the act of discovery escapes logical analysis; there are no logical rules i n terms of which a 'discovery machine' could be con-3 A structed." The delineation of the scope of the context of discovery — that i s , the decision concerning which parts of science are consigned to i t and which parts are not — varies from one approach to science to another. N.R. Hanson, for example, i s particularly concerned with 35 opening up to analysis as much of the context of discovery as possible. In the examination to follow, we shall want to consider how this problem of the scope of the context of discovery i s handled by the deductive formalist approach to science, especially i n relation to what i t can t e l l us about theory building, which, although analytically stubborn, i s not completely immune to analysis, and i s an extremely important part of 23 successful s c i e n t i f i c practice. The testing of theories, in contrast, i s always subsumed under the context of jus t i f i c a t i o n and has been subjected to several varied types of systematic analysis. The general characteristics of theory testing involve specifying an interpretation of the theory In terms of empirical referents, and then comparing this interpretation to observation or ex-perimentation. Ideally, this comparison should result i n either the con-firmation or f a l s i f i c a t i o n of the theory. Our analysis of the means em-ployed i n testing deductive theories w i l l , accordingly, concentrate on these two processes of confirmation and f a l s i f i c a t i o n . In summary, then, I have here attempted to sketch out the common framework within which the formal deductive conception of science can be evaluated and, as the opportunity arises, compared to other conceptions of science. Its purpose i s to simplify and organize the discussion that follows. Thus, f u l l y aware of the fact that I am greatly simplifying matters, the remainder of this thesis w i l l focus on science i n terms of explanation and theory. These w i l l be analyzed i n terms of form, content, context of application, and context of evaluation. In addition, the con-text of evaluation of deductive theories w i l l be analyzed i n terms of the contexts of discovery and jus t i f i c a t i o n . II. The Philosophical Source; Formal  Deductive Models of Explanation and Theory We can now turn to a c r i t i c a l examination of the conception of science as deductive formalism that i s put forth i n the literature of 24 philosophy of science. As mentioned above, the discussion w i l l be oriented around the question: How can this conception of science help f a c i l i t a t e a science of international politics? In general, we w i l l find that the limitations of the approach are well understood by i t s proponents, and that our critique w i l l only occasionally have to take note of the various c r i t i c s within the f i e l d such as the hist o r i c a l l y -oriented philosophers of science. We w i l l f i r s t consider the general characteristics of the approach, then focus on the specific deductive models of explanation and theory. A. The General Characteristics of Deductive Formalism 1. Deduction Kaplan observes that "A great deal hinges on whether science i s viewed as a body of propositions or as an enterprise i n which they are 36 generated, as product or process." There seems to be no better starting point for our examination of deductive formalism than to note 37 that i t is the preeminent example of the study of science as product. In particular, i t is concerned with the form of this product. It holds that an adequate explanation or theory must be structured hierarchically with each statement s t r i c t l y deducible from those above i t . This re-quirement i s the sine qua non of deductive formalism. For i t has the effect of turning what would otherwise be an unrelated system of state-ments into a tautology i n which true premises must imply true conse-quences, irrespective of the content or context of either. The deductive link i s achieved through the logical ooperation of modus ponens, which Carl Hempel defines as "the 'rule of detachment', 25 of deductive logic, which, given the information that 'D1 and also ' i f D then P', are true statements, authorizes us to detach the consequent 'P' i n the conditional premise and to assert i t as a self-contained 38 statement which must then be true as well." Thus, with reference to explanation, May Brodbeck notes that: If the generalizations and individual statements of fact serving as premises are accepted as true, then, because of the tautological connection, the conclusion must be true. This and this alone Is the virtue of deductive explanation. Once such terms as 'must', 'guarantees', and 'logically im-plies' are c l a r i f i e d , then i t i s clear why deduc-tion, and deduction alone, ' j u s t i f i e s ' the con-clusion. At the same time, i t i s also clear why any other kind of explanation of individual facts cannot possess this conclusiveness. Either the explanation i s deductive, or i t does not j u s t i f y what i t i s said to explain.39 An analogous statement could be made with reference to theories; only a tautological connection between assumptions and empirically relevant theorems can j u s t i f y the confirmation or f a l s i f i c a t i o n of a deductive theory. 2. Abstraction The v i a b i l i t y of the deductive link depends upon an acceptance of the fact that i t constitutes an abstraction from s c i e n t i f i c practice. This i s to say, referring back to our discussion of the logical approach in section I, that the deductive explication of s c i e n t i f i c explanations and theories Is not meant to be a description of how scientists actually formulate explanations and theories, but i s instead an abstract recon-struction of the logical form seen by deductivists as in t r i n s i c i n that formulation. In Hempel's words: 26 . . . t h e s e models are not meant to d e s c r i b e how working s c i e n t i s t s a c t u a l l y formulate t h e i r ex-p l a n a t o r y a c c o u n t s . T h e i r purpose i s r a t h e r to i n d i c a t e i n reasonably p r e c i s e terms the l o g i c a l s t r u c t u r e and r a t i o n a l e o f v a r i o u s ways i n which e m p i r i c a l s c i e n c e answers e x p l a n a t i o n - s e e k i n g why-questions. The c o n s t r u c t i o n of our models t h e r e f o r e i n v o l v e s some measure o f a b s t r a c t i o n and o f l o g i c a l s c h e m a t i z a t i o n . I n these respects our concepts o f e x p l a n a t i o n resemble the concept, o r concepts, o f mathematical p r o o f ( w i t h i n a g i v e n mathematical theory) as c o n -s t r u e d i n metamathematics.^ A b s t r a c t i o n i s seen as necessary i f g e n e r a l i t y i s to be a t t a i n e d . Generality, i n t u r n , al lows the model to be a p p l i c a b l e to a maximum number o f c o n t e x t s . Thus, f o r example, E r n e s t Nagel d e c l a r e s : I t i s w e l l to bear i n mind that the u n u s u a l l y a b s t r a c t character of s c i e n t i f i c n o t i o n s , as w e l l as t h e i r a l l e g e d "remoteness" from the t r a i t s of things found i n customary e x p e r i e n c e , are i n e v i t a b l e concomitants of the quest f o r systematic and comprehensive e x p l a n a t i o n s . Such explanations can be construed only i f the f a m i l i a r q u a l i t i e s and r e l a t i o n s of t h i n g s , i n terms o f which i n d i v i d u a l objects and events are u s u a l l y i d e n t i f i e d and d i f f e r e n t i a t e d , can be shown to depend f o r t h e i r occurrence on the presence of c e r t a i n other p e r v a s i v e r e l a t i o n a l or s t r u c t u r a l p r o p e r t i e s that c h a r a c t e r i z e i n v a r i o u s ways an extensive c l a s s of objects and p r o c e s s e s . A c c o r d i n g l y , to achieve g e n e r a l i t y o f e x p l a n a t i o n f o r q u a l i t a t i v e l y d i v e r s e t h i n g s , those s t r u c t u r a l p r o p e r t i e s must be formulated without r e f e r e n c e t o , and i n a b s t r a c t i o n from, the i n d i v i d u a l i z i n g q u a l i t i e s and r e l a t i o n s of f a m i l i a r experience. The a b s t r a c t n e s s of the deductive conception of s c i e n c e must be o f p a r t i c u l a r concern to those i n t e r e s t e d i n the development of a s c i e n c e o f i n t e r n a t i o n a l p o l i t i c s . For i t i m p l i e s that the deductive model i s more an i d e a l 'measuring r o d ' f o r j u d g i n g a l r e a d y e x i s t i n g 27 sc i e n t i f i c explanations and theories than It i s a 'blueprint' for pro-ducing such explanations or theories i n the f i r s t place. This Is not necessarily grounds for rejecting the model, however, since the value of> ideal-types for guiding actions i s well known; at least as long as the ideal i s , i n fact, a true ideal for the activity which i t i s meant to guide. Whether the deductive model i s such an ideal w i l l require further analysis. 3. Historical Note The philosophical roots of deductive formalism are to be found i n the epistemological movement usually referred to as logical positivism or logical empiricism. Under the influence of Gottlob Frege, Bertrand Russell, Ludwig Wittgenstein and others, the movement began i n Vienna i n the 1920s as a reaction to the metaphysical German philosophies of the nineteenth century. This new approach advocated the logical analysis of s c i e n t i f i c concepts, statements, and explanations as a means of achieving an objective understanding of the empirical world. Michael Scrlven offers a typical brief description of the movement: Impressionistically speaking — and i n this area of the history of thought I do not believe we can be very precise — one thinks of the logical positivists as attacking nineteenth-century German metaphysics and what they called psychologism i n the sciences (which sometimes included Gestalt theory and always included Verstehen theory),and as upholding the analytic-synthetic distinction, the distinction between the context of discovery and that of verification, the facts-value dis-tinction, operationalism, verificationism, pheno-menalism, conventionalism, and formalism (especial-ly i n the^philosophy of mathematics and i n the reconstruction of s c i e n t i f i c theories in terms of 42 an uninterpreted calculus and correspondence rules). 28 Unfortunately, i t i s beyond the scope of this thesis to trace the links between contemporary deductive formalism and the evolution of logical p o s i t i v i s t thought, even though such a discussion would shed considerable light on the hi s t o r i c a l aspects of the issues with which we are concerned. Instead, I w i l l merely note the lineage here, refer to some relevant literature i n the footnotes, and point out particularly 43 significant relationships as they become pertinent to topics at hand. B. Deductive-Nomological Explanation: The Covering Law Model In this section, we want to consider the deductivist response to the question: What constitutes a complete s c i e n t i f i c explanation? We w i l l attempt to classify this response i n terms of our four categories of form, content, context of evaluation, and context of application. Deductive-nomological (D-N) explanation was f i r s t given explici t formulation as a reconstructed model of s c i e n t i f i c explanation by Carl 44 Hempel and Paul Oppenheim i n 1948, Since then, the model has under-45 gone some revision, as we shall note where appropriate, but as a 46 whole i s s t i l l accepted largely i n i t s original form. In their a r t i c l e , Hempel and Oppenheim propose four requirements for adequate s c i e n t i f i c explanation. The f i r s t three are called "Logical Conditions of Adequacy" (R1-R3) and the fourth i s termed an "Empirical Condition of Adequacy" (R4). The best way to approach the D-N model of explanation i s to consider each of these requirements in turn. 1. Form The f i r s t requirement i s that deductive relationships must hold between statements i n the explanation: 29 ( R I ) T h e e x p l a n a n d u m [ t h a t w h i c h i s b e i n g e x -p l a i n e d ; t h e c o n s e q u e n t ] m u s t b e a l o g i c a l c o n -s e q u e n c e o f t h e e x p l a n a n s [ t h e p r e m i s e s ] ; i n o t h e r w o r d s , t h e e x p l a n a n d u m m u s t b e l o g i c a l l y d e d u c i b l e f r o m t h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d i n t h e e x p l a n a n s ; f o r o t h e r w i s e , t h e e x p l a n a n s w o u l d n o t c o n s t i t u t e a d e q u a t e g r o u n d s f o r t h e e x p l a n a n d u m . 4 ? T h i s r e q u i r e m e n t m e r e l y p o i n t s o u t t h e p r i o r i t y o f l o g i c a l f o r m w h i c h w e d i s c u s s e d a b o v e . T h e s e c o n d r e q u i r e m e n t i s a l s o c o n c e r n e d w i t h f o r m , b u t i n t h i s c a s e i t i s t h e f o r m o f t h e i n d i v i d u a l s t a t e m e n t s w i t h i n t h e e x p l a n a n s : (R2) T h e e x p l a n a n s m u s t c o n t a i n g e n e r a l l a w s , a n d t h e s e m u s t a c t u a l l y b e r e q u i r e d f o r t h e d e r i v a t i o n o f t h e e x p l a n a n d u m . We s h a l l n o t m a k e i t a n e c e s s a r y c o n d i t i o n f o r a s o u n d e x -p l a n a t i o n , h o w e v e r , t h a t t h e e x p l a n a n s m u s t c o n t a i n a ^ g l e a s t o n e s t a t e m e n t w h i c h i s n o t a l a w . . . . T h e r e q u i r e m e n t o f g e n e r a l , o r c o v e r i n g , l a w s i m m e d i a t e l y l e a d s t o t h e d i f f i c u l t q u e s t i o n o f s p e c i f y i n g e x a c t l y w h a t l a w s a r e . T h i s i s s u e h a s g e n e r a t e d m u c h c o n t r o v e r s y , n o t o n l y b e t w e e n d e d u c t i v i s t s a n d c r i t i c s , b u t among d e d u c t i v i s t s t h e m s e l v e s . S i n c e t h e n a t u r e o f l a w s w i l l b e a n i m p o r t a n t e l e m e n t i n d i s c u s s i n g t h e a p p l i c a b i l i t y o f D-N e x p l a n a t i o n t o i n t e r n a t i o n a l p o l i t i c s , w e w i l l t a k e s o m e t i m e t o c o n s i d e r i t c l o s e l y h e r e . H e m p e l a n d O p p e n h e i m ' s c o n c e p t i o n o f g e n e r a l l a w i s n o t c o m p l e t e l y c l e a r . T h e y i n s i s t t h a t a l a w m u s t b e t r u e ( t h i s i s t a k e n u p i n R4) a n d u n i v e r s a l I n f o r m . B e y o n d t h i s , a l a w m u s t b e i n f i n i t e i n s c o p e i f i t i s " f u n d a m e n t a l , " b u t c a n b e f i n i t e i n s c o p e i f i t i s l o g i c a l l y d e r i v e d f r o m a f u n d a m e n t a l l a w . F i n a l l y , a l a w m a y c o n t a i n n o t e r m s i n i t s p r e d i c a t e w h o s e m e a n i n g r e q u i r e s r e f e r e n c e t o a n y p a r t i c u l a r o b j e c t o r 30 s p a t i o - t e m p o r a l l o c a t i o n . * * 3 T h i s f o r m u l a t i o n l e a v e s m u c h r o o m f o r c o n -f u s i o n , a s t h e r e s u l t i n g d e b a t e q u i c k l y made c l e a r . A s a r e s u l t , f u r -t h e r a t t e m p t s a t c l a r i f i c a t i o n b y H e m p e l a n d o t h e r s h a v e now l e d t o a m o r e d i f f e r e n t i a t e d c o n c e p t i o n o f l a w s . S p e c i f i c a l l y , w e c a n d i f f e r e n -t i a t e a m o n g p e r f e c t l a w s , i m p e r f e c t l a w s , a c c i d e n t a l u n i v e r s a l s , e m p i r -i c a l g e n e r a l i z a t i o n s , a n d t a u t o l o g i e s . B r o a d b e c k h a s n o t e d a d i s t i n c t i o n b e t w e e n p e r f e c t a n d i m p e r f e c t l a w s , b o t h o f w h i c h a r e v i e w e d a s t y p e s o f g e n e r a l l a w s : A n y l a w , w h e t h e r i t i s a b o u t p h y s i c a l o b j e c t s , p e r s o n s , o r s o c i e t i e s , i s ' i m p e r f e c t ' i f I t d o e s n o t p e r m i t u s t o c o m p u t e ( p r e d i c t o r p o s t -d i e t ) t h e s t a t e o f t h e s y s t e m , e i t h e r a n I n d i -v i d u a l o r a g r o u p , a t a n y m o m e n t f r o m i t s s t a t e a t o n e m o m e n t . . . . I n g e n e r a l , i m p e r f e c t l a w s a r e i n d e f i n i t e w i t h r e s p e c t t o t i m e , o r h e d g e d I n b y q u a l i f i c a t i o n , o r t h e y a r e s t a t i s t i c a l . 5 0 O b v i o u s l y , p e r f e c t l a w s a r e h a r d t o come by."*"*" I m p e r f e c t l a w s , h o w e v e r , a r e a l s o c o n s i d e r e d p e r m i s s i b l e i n d e d u c t i v e e x p l a n a t i o n s . A c c o r d i n g t o B r o d b e c k , " t h e d e d u c t i v e m o d e l b y n o m e a n s r e q u i r e s t h a t p r e m i s e s b e t h e d e t e r m i n i s t i c p r o c e s s l a w s o f p e r f e c t k n o w l e d g e . O n c e t h i s i s g r a s p e d , t h e a d m i t t e d d i f f i c u l t y i n f o r m u l a t i n g s o - c a l l e d u n i v e r s a l l a w s . . . n o l o n g e r a p p e a r s i n s u p e r a b l e . B u t t h i s s t i l l l e a v e s t h e m a t t e r s o m e w h a t v a g u e . How a r e e i t h e r o f t h e s e t y p e s o f l a w s t o b e d i s t i n g u i s h e d f r o m o t h e r l a w - l i k e l i n g u i s t i c e n t i t i e s ? T h e d i s t i n c t i o n b e t w e e n a l a w a n d a n a c c i d e n t a l u n i v e r s a l i s a n i m p o r t a n t b u t i m p r e c i s e o n e . I t i s i m p o r t a n t b e c a u s e , o n H e m p e l ' s a c -c o u n t , a l a w c a n s e r v e a s t h e b a s i s f o r a n e x p l a n a t i o n , w h e r e a s a n a c -53 c i d e n t a l u n i v e r s a l c a n n o t . I t i s i m p r e c i s e b e c a u s e , i n s p i t e o f t h i s 3 1 i m p o r t a n t d i f f e r e n c e , n o d e f i n i t e m e a n s f o r i d e n t i f y i n g a n a c c i d e n t a l u n i v e r s a l h a s y e t b e e n f o r m u l a t e d . A s a r e s u l t , t h e d i s t i n c t i o n i s u s u a l l y d e s c r i b e d i n t e r m s o f w h a t a c c i d e n t a l u n i v e r s a l s a r e n o t , o r i n t e r m s o f v e r y s i m p l i s t i c e x a m p l e s . H e m p e l n o t e s a " t e l l i n g a n d s u g g e s t i v e " d i f f e r e n c e : " a l a w c a n , w h e r e a s a n a c c i d e n t a l u n i v e r s a l c a n n o t , s e r v e t o s u p p o r t c o u n t e r f a c t u a l c o n d i t i o n a l s , i . e . , s t a t e m e n t s o f t h e f o r m ' I f A w e r e ( h a d b e e n ) t h e c a s e , t h e n B w o u l d b e ( w o u l d h a v e b e e n ) t h e c a s e ' , w h e r e i n f a c t A i s 54 n o t ( h a s n o t b e e n ) t h e c a s e . " T o i l l u s t r a t e t h i s , h e n o t e s t h e f o l -l o w i n g e x a m p l e s : T h u s , t h e a s s e r t i o n ' I f t h i s p a r a f f i n c a n d l e h a d b e e n p u t i n t o a k e t t l e o f b o i l i n g w a t e r , i t w o u l d h a v e m e l t e d ' c o u l d h e s u p p o r t e d b y a d d u c i n g t h e l a w t h a t p a r a f f i n i s l i q u i d a b o v e 6 0 d e g r e e s c e n t i g r a d e ( a n d t h e f a c t t h a t t h e b o i l i n g p o i n t o f w a t e r i s 1 0 0 d e g r e e s c e n t i g r a d e ) . B u t t h e s t a t e m e n t ' A l l r o c k s i n t h i s b o x c o n t a i n i r o n ' c o u l d n o t b e u s e d s i m i l a r l y t o S u p p o r t t h e c o u n t e r -f a c t u a l s t a t e m e n t ' I f t h i s p e b b l e h a d b e e n p u t i n t h i s b o x , i t w o u l d c o n t a i n i r o n ' . T h i s d i s t i n c t i o n i s n o t c o m p l e t e l y u n a m b i g u o u s , h o w e v e r , s i n c e t h e a c -c i d e n t a l u n i v e r s a l c a n s u p p o r t s o m e c o u n t e r f a c t u a l s , i f n o t t h i s s p e -c i f i c o n e . F o r e x a m p l e , t h e s t a t e m e n t ' I f t h i s p e b b l e h a d b e e n p u l l e d  o u t o f t h i s b o x , i t w o u l d c o n t a i n i r o n ' i s s u p p o r t e d b y t h e u n i v e r s a l . A s i m i l a r d i f f e r e n c e , a c c o r d i n g t o H e m p e l , i s t h a t " a l a w , i n c o n t r a s t t o a n a c c i d e n t a l u n i v e r s a l , c a n s u p p o r t s u b j u n c t i v e c o n d i t i o n a l s , i . e . , s e n t e n c e s o f t h e t y p e ' I f A s h o u l d come t o p a s s , t h e n s o w o u l d B ' , w h e r e i t i s l e f t o p e n w h e t h e r o r n o t A w i l l i n f a c t come t o p a s s . " " * ^ T h i s i s r e p r e s e n t e d b y t h e s t a t e m e n t ' I f t h i s p a r a f f i n c a n d l e s h o u l d b e p u t i n t o b o i l i n g w a t e r , t h e n i t w o u l d m e l t ' . B u t t h e s a m e p r o b l e m 32 described above also applies here. In spite of these d i f f i c u l t i e s and ambiguities, however, most explications of the difference between ac-cidental universals and laws revolve around these two arguments.^ Quite simply, these explications are unsatisfactory; they seem to add l i t t l e to what appears to be an intuitively obvious difference be-tween the two specific statements. The more important question i s : Why does one counterfactual appear so obviously acceptable, while the other appears unacceptable? The answer, I think, involves the nature of the 'background knowledge' or context that i s pertinent to each case. This can be illustrated by making some modifications to the 'rocks i n the box' example. Suppose we are given the following universal statement: ' a l l iron rocks i n this box are magnetic'. Is this a law or i s It an ac-cidental universal? Let us consider the counterfactual: 'If this iron rock had been put i n this box, i t would be magnetic'• The question of whether this statement i s supported by the original universal i s not obvious as i n the previous examples. The reason i s because there i s a gap in our background knowledge. This gap prevents us from knowing whether the box i s simply a cardboard box si t t i n g on a table somewhere — i n which case the counterfactual i s not supported by the original state-ment, which then must be an accidental universal — or i f the box i s situated, say, within the f i e l d of a huge magnet — i n which case, because the rock would become magnetized when placed i n the box, the counterfactual would be supported by the original statement, which then would be judged a legitimate law. Until the gap is our background know-ledge i s f i l l e d , u n t i l we know more about the location of the box, we 33 cannot make a judgement about whether or not the universal i s a law. Thus, the distinction between laws and accidental universals i s highly dependent on the question of context. A law i s a law because, given the context of the way we view the world, i t seems to f i t i n with other phe-nomena and processes we observe. In contrast, an accidental universal seems to contradict our background knowledge. This distinction w i l l become more clear when we come to examine further on the role played by laws i n theories. The distinction among laws, empirical generalizations, and tautol-ogies can be explicated by a similar argument. Hanson defines the three types of statements in terms of the three dimensions of logical space: syntax, semantics, and epistemological status. Although not himself a deduct!vist, Hanson's argument i s quite amenable to the present deduct-ive position. Its particular value stems from the cl a r i t y with which i t i llustrates the problems involved i n recognizing and classifying laws. Before considering Hanson's definitions, however, we must brie f l y note the rudimentary characteristics of the three logical dimensions. In terms of syntax, a statement i s either synthetic or analytic; that i s , i t i s either logically consistent with i t s negative, or i t i s not. 58 not. Perhaps this i s best illustrated by examples. The statement ' A l l Swedes have blond hair' i s logically consistent with i t s negative 'Not a l l Swedes have blond hair'; therefore i t i s synthetic. On the other hand, the statement ' A l l bachelors are unmarried males' i s analytic because i t s negative, 'Not a l l bachelors are unmarried males', makes no sense i n light of the accepted definitions of 'bachelor' and 'unmarried 34 male'. Thus, syntax involves the question of consistency. In terms of semantics, a statement i s either contingent or non-contingent; that i s , i t s claim to truth i s either vulnerable, e.g., on the way the world i s , or on the rules of the game, or on the conditions of inquiry within a given context, or i t i s not. The statement ' A l l Swedes have blond hair' i s contingent on the observation of whether or not they a l l i n fact do have blond hair; whereas the statement ' A l l bachelors are unmarried males' is non-contingent, i t s claim to truth i s non-falsifiable with reference to anything outside i t s e l f . Thus, semantics involves the question of meaning or truth-content. In terms of epistemological status, a state-ment i s either j u s t i f i e d a p r i o r i or a posteriori; that i s , i t s truth i s either evident by reflection alone, or i t needs to be corroborated by experience. The f i r s t of our examples i s obviously j u s t i f i e d a poste- r i o r i whereas the second j u s t i f i e s i t s e l f and is therefore a p r i o r i . Thus, epistemological status involves the question of j u s t i f i c a t i o n . 5 9 According to Hanson, empirical generalizations are synthetic, contingent, and a posteriori. ' A l l Swedes have blond hair', then, i s an empirical generalization. Tautologies, i n contrast, are analytic, non-contingent, and a p r i o r i . ' A l l bachelors are unmarried males' i s a taut-ology. (Note again that a D-N explanation i s a tautology, and therefore exhibits a l l tnese tautological characteristics.) But what about laws? The problem seems to be that laws exhibit characteristics of both empir-i c a l generalizations and tautologies. Indeed, the history of debate con-cerning the nature of laws has most often consisted of attempts to show that they are 'in fact' either one or the other. The present position 35 t a k e n b y d e d u c t i v i s t s ( a n d , f o r t h a t m a t t e r , t h e g r e a t m a j o r i t y o f a l l p h i l o s o p h e r s o f s c i e n c e ) c o m e s d o w n s o m e w h e r e i n t h e m i d d l e . I t h o l d s t h a t l a w s a r e s y n t h e t i c a n d a p o s t e r i o r i , l i k e e m p i r i c a l g e n e r a l i z a t i o n s . B u t t h e y a r e a l s o t o a c e r t a i n e x t e n t n o n - c o n t i n g e n t , l i k e t a u t o l o g i e s . T h i s n o n - c o n t i n g e n c y , h o w e v e r , i s r e l a t i v e ( u n l i k e t a u t o l o g i e s ) a n d s t e m s f r o m t h e f a c t t h a t a l a w i s u s u a l l y i m b e d d e d i n a t h e o r e t i c a l s t r u c t u r e . A s a r e s u l t , t h e n e g a t i o n o f a l a w w o u l d h a v e t h e e f f e c t o f n e g a t i n g t h e w h o l e t h e o r e t i c a l s t r u c t u r e a s w e l l . S o a l a w i s u s u a l l y e x p e c t e d t o h o l d t r u e , t h u s i t s r e l a t i v e n o n - c o n t i n g e n c y a n d i t s d i f f e r e n t i a t i o n f r o m e m p i r i c a l g e n e r a l i z a t i o n s . A s S c r i v e n p u t s i t : r e d u c t i o n f r o m a ' m e r e e m p i r i c a l g e n e r a l i z a t i o n ' i s v e r y r a r e l y e x p l a n a t o r y , a n d i t i s o n l y b e c a u s e l a w s u s u a l l y i n v o l v e m o r e t h a n t h i s ( a s w e l l a s l e s s ) t h a t t h e y c a r r y e x p l a n a t o r y f o r c e . ( T h e f a c t t h a t t h e y c o m m o n l y r e f l e c t s o m e u n d e r l y i n g p r o c e s s e s , a l b e i t i m p r e c i s e l y , a c c o u n t s f o r m u c h o f t h e i n d u c t i v e r e l -i a b i l i t y we a s c r i b e t o t h e m , a n d h e n c e f o r m u c h o f o u r w i l l i n g n e s s t o a l l o w c o n t r a r y - t o - f a c t i n f e r e n c e s f r o m t h e m . ) 6 0 L i k e t h e d i s t i n c t i o n b e t w e e n l a w s a n d a c c i d e n t a l u n i v e r s a l s , t h i s d i s t i n c -t i o n b e t w e e n l a w s a n d e m p i r i c a l g e n e r a l i z a t i o n s w i l l b e c l a r i f i e d b y o u r d i s c u s s i o n o f d e d u c t i v e t h e o r i e s b e l o w . T h e r e a s o n i t i s i m p o r t a n t t o b e e x p l i c i t a b o u t t h e d i f f e r e n c e s b e -t w e e n l a w s o n t h e o n e h a n d a n d a c c i d e n t a l u n i v e r s a l s a n d e m p i r i c a l g e n e r a l 6 1 i z a t i o n s o n t h e o t h e r , i s b e c a u s e t h e c h a r g e h a s b e e n made o n s e v e r a l o c c a s i o n s t h a t t h e s o - c a l l e d l a w s d e v e l o p e d i n s o c i a l s c i e n c e a r e a c t u a l l y a c c i d e n t a l u n i v e r s a l s o r e m p i r i c a l g e n e r a l i z a t i o n s . F o r e x a m p l e , P a u l M e e h l n o t e s t h a t many p r o b l e m s o f s o c i a l s c i e i t i f i c e x p l a n a t i o n r e s u l t f r o m t h e " i n c o m p l e t e n e s s o f t h e s o c i a l s c i e n t i s t s ' n o m o l o g i c a l n e t w o r k . " 3 6 U n d e r l y i n g ( d e r i v a t i o n a l l y a n d c a u s a l l y ) t h e k n o w n l a w s o f s o c i a l s c i e n c e a r e t h e u n k n o w n o n e s — t h e " t r u e r e a s o n s w h y " t h e k n o w n l a w s a r e t h e w a y t h e y a r e . F u r t h e r m o r e , v e r y o d d b u t t r u e , s o m e o f t h e l a w s a r e , f r o m a p h i l o s -o p h e r ' s v i e w p o i n t , n o t n o m o l o g i c a l s b u t a c c i d e n t -a l u n i v e r s a l s . T h i s i s b e c a u s e many " l a w s " o f b i o l o g i c a l a n d s o c i a l s c i e n c e a r e s t r u c t u r e -d e p e n d e n t a n d h i s t o r y - d e p e n d e n t i n a s p e c i a l w a y , s o t h a t w h i l e t h e i r l o g i c a l f o r m ( t a k e n s i n g l y ) i s t h a t o f l a w s o f n a t u r e , t h e y a r e n o t d e r i v a b l e f r o m t h e f u n d a m e n t a l n o m o l o g i c a l s ( l a w s o f p h y s i c s ) . H o w e v e r , h e a l s o n o t e s t h e s a m e d i f f i c u l t y i n v o l v e d i n r e c o g n i z i n g a c -c i d e n t a l u n i v e r s a l s w h i c h w e h a v e b e e n g r a p p l i n g w i t h h e r e . U n f o r t u n a t e l y , i t i s n o t a l w a y s e a s y t o a s c e r t a i n w h e n a b i o l o g i c a l o r s o c i a l - s c i e n c e g e n e r a l i z a t i o n ( t a k e n a s t r u e a n d w e l l e v i d e n c e d ) i s r e a l l y a k i n t o t o " A l l s i l v e r m e l t s a t 9 6 0 . 5 ° C . " — a n o m o l o g i c a l — a n d w h e n i t i s a k i n t o " A l l t h e c o i n s i n my p o c k e t a r e s i l v e r , " a n a c c i d e n t a l u n i v e r s a l . . . . . [ T h e n o m o l o g i c a l ] g e n e r a l i z a t i o n i s a t h e o r e m w i t h i n a f o r m a l i z e d p h y s i c a l t h e o r y ( a n d , n o t e c a r e f u l l y , w o u l d b e n o n - t r i v i a l l y t r u e f o r a l l w o r l d s o n o u r w o r l d f a m i l y e v e n i f n o s i l v e r e x -i s t e d o n s o m e o f t h e m ) . I n b i o l o g y , t h e s t a t e -m e n t " A mammal d i e s i f d e p r i v e d o f o x y g e n " i s o f t h i s s o r t , s i n c e i t s s t r u c t u r e d e p e n d e n c e c a n a n a l o g o u s l y b e r e p r e s e n t e d i n a n a d e q u a t e t h e o r e t i c a l ( a n a t o m i c a l + p h y s i o l o g i c a l ) d e f i n i t i o n o f ' m a m m a l . ' B y c o n t r a s t , t h e t a x o n o m i c g e n e r a l i z a t i o n " A l l mam-m a l s h a v e p a i r e d g i l l - s l i t s a t some s t a g e i n t h e i r d e v e l o p m e n t " i s a n a c c i d e n t a l u n i v e r s a l , a s i s " I f a s p e c i e s o f a n i m a l h a s a h e a r t , i t h a s k i d n e y s . " T h e s e t a x o n o m i c p r o p e r t y c o r r e l a t i o n s a r e . . . " h i s t o r -i c a l a c c i d e n t s , " r e f l e c t i n g t h e c o u r s e o f e v o l u t i o n w h i c h c o u l d h a v e b e e n d i f f e r e n t g i v e n t h e s a m e f u n d a m e n t a l n o m o l o g i c a l s b u t d i f f e r i n g i n i t i a l c o n -d i t i o n s o f t h e e a r t h . 6 3 M e e h l ' s c o n c e p t i o n o f a l a w b e a r s a g r e a t e r r e s e m b l a n c e t o H e m p e l a n d O p p e n h e i m ' s f u n d a m e n t a l a n d d e r i v e d l a w s o r B r o d b e c k ' s p e r f e c t l a w s t h a n i t d o e s t o H a n s o n ' s c o n c e p t i o n , w h i c h m e r e l y r e q u i r e s t h a t a l a w b e i m b e d d e d i n s o m e t h e o r e t i c a l s t r u c t u r e , n o t n e c e s s a r i l y t h e t h e o r e t i c a l 37 s t r u c t u r e o f f u n d a m e n t a l p h y s i c s * . I n e i t h e r c a s e , h o w e v e r , t h e p r o b l e m o f a c c i d e n t a l u n i v e r s a l s a n d e m p i r i c a l g e n e r a l i z a t i o n s p o s i n g a s l a w s i n s o c i a l s c i e n c e i s a n i m p o r t a n t o n e . B a s i c a l l y , t h e r e a p p e a r s t o b e t w o w a y s o f h a n d l i n g t h i s p r o b l e m , b o t h o f w h i c h a r e s o m e w h a t d a m a g i n g t o t h e d e d u c t i v e p o s i t i o n . O n t h e o n e h a n d , we c a n a c c e p t M e e h l ' s c o n c e p t i o n o f l a w s . I n t h i s c a s e , i t i s c l e a r t h a t t h e r e a r e n o l a w s i n s o c i a l s c i e n c e . M o r e -o v e r , i t w o u l d n o t b e i m p l a u s i b l e t o c o n c l u d e t h a t , i n l i g h t o f t h i s c o n -c e p t i o n , l a w s o f s o c i a l s c i e n c e a r e u n a v a i l a b l e i n p r i n c i p l e . H o w e v e r , w e c a n s e e t h a t i t i s e q u a l l y c l e a r t h a t t h e r e a r e many e x p l a n a t i o n s i n s o c i a l s c i e n c e ( s o m e , a d m i t t e d l y , f a r l e s s r e l i a b l e t h a n o t h e r s ) . D o e s t h i s m e a n t h a t s o c i a l s c i e n c e i s i n a d e q u a t e i n t e r m s o f d e d u c t i v e e x -p l a n a t i o n , o r d o e s i t m e a n t h a t t h e d e d u c t i v e m o d e l i s i n a d e q u a t e i n t e r m s o f e x p l a i n i n g s o c i a l p h e n o m e n a ? T h e f o r m e r a r g u m e n t i s u s u a l l y p u t f o r t h , b u t w e m u s t r e g a r d i t a s u n a c c e p t a b l e b e c a u s e i t i s i n c o m p -a t i b l e w i t h t h e b a s i c a s s u m p t i o n s w e o u t l i n e d i n t h e i n t r o d u c t i o n t o t h i s t h e s i s ; i t p l a c e s r e c o n s t r u c t e d l o g i c i n a p o s i t i o n a n a l y t i c a l l y p r i o r t o l o g i c - i n - u s e . T h u s , i f i n d e e d s o c i a l e x p l a n a t i o n i s p r e s e n t l y i n a d e q u a t e , i t m u s t b e i n a d e q u a t e i n t e r m s o f t h e u n d e r s t a n d i n g i t s h e d s o n s o c i a l r e a l i t y , n o t i n t e r m s o f i t s c o m p a t i b i l i t y w i t h t h e D-N m o d e l o f e x p l a n -a t i o n . A s a r e s u l t , we m u s t , i f we a r e i n a p o s i t i o n t o m a k e a c h o i c e c o n c e r n i n g f u t u r e s t r a t e g i e s f o r i m p r o v i n g s o c i a l e x p l a n a t i o n , r e j e c t t h e s t r a t e g y o f t r y i n g t o m o l d e x p l a n a t i o n t o t h e D-N m o d e l a n d , r a t h e r , f o l l o w a s t r a t e g y o f t r y i n g t o m o l d e x p l a n a t i o n t o t h e c o n t i n g e n c i e s o f s o c i a l r e a l i t y . I f t h i s m e a n s d e v e l o p i n g m o d e s o f e x p l a n a t i o n t h a t d o 38 no* demand recourse to laws, so be i t . This i s the approach advocated by Scriven, who notes, for example, the role of truisms as opposed to laws in warranting hi s t o r i c a l explanations: [Truisms] are t r i v i a l , but they are not empty; and can only look lik e shoddy pre-scientific laws, where-as hi s t o r i c a l explanations are neither shoddy nor pre-s c i e n t i f i c . The paradox i s resolved by seeing that the sense i n which good hi s t o r i c a l explanations are based on such truisms i s simply that the explanations can only be denied by someone who i s prepared to deny such an obviously true statement. The truism t e l l s us nothing new at a l l , but i t says something and i t says something true, even i f vague and du l l . It i l l f i t s into a deductive proof; but i t has no need to do so, since the j u s t i f i c a t i o n of an explanation i s a a context-dependent inductive procedure.64 It i s not necessary to go into the details of Scriven's approach i n order to stress our main point, that an acceptance of Meehl's conception of laws requires the abandonment of deductive explanation of social phenomena and the development of at least some alternative that i s more relevant to the problems and characteristics of the social world. On the other hand, an acceptance of Hanson's less stringent concep-tion of laws s t i l l confronts us with the problem of differentiating among laws, empirical generalizations, and accidental universale. In this case, the differentiation i s even more d i f f i c u l t , since the distinctions among the three become quite obscure, as we have already seen. Thus, the problem becomes more a practical than a theoretical one. But once we begin defining laws, and hence deductive explanations, i n terms of practical considerations, we are weakening the logical foundation of the deductive approach i n favor of a pragmatic one. This i s a dangerous tactic because one goal of deductive fo-rmalism must be to define laws i n logical 39 terms. Otherwise, there can be no guarantee that the laws are true, which means no guarantee that the deduction i s j u s t i f i e d , and therefore no guarantee that the explanation i s complete. Thus, the d i f f i c u l t y into which this conception of laws leads us i s one of logical adequacy, as op-posed to the d i f f i c u l t y of practical adequacy which characterized the previous conception. 2. Context The third requirement of D-N explanation involves the content of the explanans: (R3) The explanans must have empirical content; i.e., i t must be capable, at least i n principle, of test by experiment or observation. This con-dition i s implicit i n (R4); for since the ex-planandum i s assumed to describe some empirical phenomenon, i t follows from (Rl) that the ex-planans entails at least one consequence of empirical character, and this fact confers upon i t testability and empirical content.65 How the explanation i s to be tested i s a matter that i s not taken up i n much detail by Hempel and Oppenheim. This i s because they are primarily concerned that the statements i n the explanans be testable, not actually tested. The purpose of an explanation i s to explain, not to be tested, and this i s why (R3) i s implicit i n (R4). As a result, the testability condition refers to testability 'in principle', since, by the Empirical Requirement of Adequacy (R4), the statements i n the explanans are re-quired to be true i n the f i r s t place: (R4) The sentences constituting the explanans must be true.66 This requirement has also led to much confusion and d i f f i c u l t y , as i s evidenced by Hempel and Oppenheim's own discussion of i t : Th**: i n a sound -explaaafelon. th» -«lem«ats. coo— stituting the -explanans have to satisfy some condition of factual correctness i s obvious. But i t might seem more appropriate to stipulate that the explanans has to be highly confirmed by a l l the relevant evidence available rather than i t should be true. This stipulation, however, leads to awkward consequences. Suppose that a certain phenomenon was explained at an earlier stage of science, by means of an explanans which was well supported by the evidence then at hand, . but which has been highly disconfirmed by more recent empirical findings. In such a case, we would have to say that originally the explanatory account was a correct explanation, but that i t ceased to be one later, when unfavorable evidence was discovered. This does not appear to accord with sound common usage.6 7 An alternative way of dealing with this problem has also been pro-posed by Hempel. He notes that "R4 characterizes what might be called a correct or true explanation. In an analysis of the logical structure of explanatory arguments, therefore, that requirement may be disre- . 68 garded. If we accept this modification, then the totality of D-N ex-planations becomes divided up into two groups somewhat as follows: . . . i n order to havs obtained The S c i e n t i f i c Ex-planation of a phenomenon one must have arrived at the true laws of nature and the true and com-plete picture of the antecedent or i n i t i a l con-ditions; whereas to have A Scientific Explanation i s to have an account satisfying R1-R3.. .but not necessarily R4. At any stage i n the history of science, we can properly describe mankind as having A Scientific Explanation of a particular phenomenon, but rarely — i f ever — can i t be claimed that The  Scientific Explanation has been arrived a t . 6 ^ The problem i s that this Jichotomization of D-N explanation simply does not work. The reason i s because what has been referred to as A Scientific Explanation i s actually no explanation at a l l , since i t i s false. As we noted above, the purpose of s c i e n t i f i c explanation i s not 41 to be tested, but to explain. In the deductive formulation of explana-tion, therefore, this means that the premises must be true (as emphasized by Hempel above with reference to modus ponens). The failure to realize this leads to errors lik e the one involved i n the following passage from Brodbeck: Far from requiring "exact truth" for i t s premises, a l l that the deductive model requires i s exact statement of a hypothesis about this truth. The hypothesis i s then tested by the "exact deduction" • • • « In an explanation, the premises are not tested by the deduction; the con-sequent i s j u s t i f i e d by the conjunction of the true premises and the de-duction. To c a l l what Brodbeck has here described an "explanation" i s to comr.lately obliterate the meaning of the term. Thus, we are brought back to the original formulation, that ade-quate D-N explanation requires true premises. This requirement, Hempel and Oppenheim's reasons for advancing i t notwithstanding, has been sub-jected to the criticism that i t i s simply too stringent to be applicable to any r e a l - l i f e s c i e n t i f i c explanation. This i s a serious criticism for, as we have seen, a logical reconstruction must take i t s warrant from the logic i n t r i n s i c i n science, not from some a p r i o r i , metaphysical prin-ciple. If deduction from true premises i s not a f a i r extrapolation from the practice of science, then the model's adequacy i s put in serious doubt. One variant of this basic criticism involves, once again, the nature of laws. It holds that a fundamental property of laws i s that they are never l i t e r a l l y true. Nothing i n our discussion of laws above seems to definitely contradict this position, and i t i s interesting to note that no A2 r W u e t i u i o t ! - k a e •es7?*> directly challenged it . However, i f accepted, i t is irretrievably damaging to the D-N conception of explanation — which demands both true premises and laws as premises — since it renders these demands incompatible. In putting forth this specific criticism, Scrivan makes the following remarks about the nature of physical laws: The examples of physical laws with which we are al l familiar are distinguished by one feature of particular interest for the traditional [de-ductive] analyses — they are virtually a l l known to be in error. Nor is the error trifling, nor is an amended law available which corrects for al l the error. The important feature of laws cannot be their literal truth, since this rarely exists. It is not their closeness to the truth which replaces this, since far better approxima-tions are readily constructed. Their virtue lies in a compound out of the qualities of generality, formal simplicity, approximation to the truth, and theoretical tractability.?1 It is worthwhile to stress that this particular criticism refers to the deductive model's role in physical explanation, not merely its role in the problematic social context. Thus, the points made here are even more general than those made with reference to laws above. In fact, they strike at the very heart of the area where the deductive approach is usually regarded as most secure; the domain of physics. We will be able to pursue this argument in greater depth in relation to the dis-cussion of deductive theories further on. These, then, are the four requirements of D-N explanation. The form of this type of explanation is represented in the following schema: 43 L o g i c a l d e d u c t i o n C l » C 2 ' * , , C k S t a t e m e n t s o f A n t e c e d e n t C o n d i t i o n s G e n e r a l L a w s E D e s c r i p t i o n o f t h e E m p i r i c a l P h e n o m e n o n t o b e E x p l a i n e d E x p l a n a n s E x p l a n a n d u m A n e x p l a n a t i o n t h a t f u l f i l l s a l l f o u r r e q u i r e m e n t s i s , o n t h e d e d u c t i v e v i e w , a ' c o m p l e t e ' e x p l a n a t i o n . T h i s m e a n s i t i n c l u d e s a l l o f t h e n e c -e s s a r y a n d s u f f i c i e n t c o n d i t i o n s o f a d e q u a c y a n d t h e r e f o r e f u l l y a c c o u n t s 73 f o r t h e p h e n o m e n o n u n d e r c o n s i d e r a t i o n . T o t h e s e c r i t e r i a f o r c o m p l e t e e x p l a n a t i o n , H e m p e l a n d O p p e n h e i m a d d a f u r t h e r p r o v i s o , w h i c h h a s p r o b a b l y h a d m o r e c o n t r o v e r s y a t t a c h e d t o i t t h a n t h e o r i g i n a l f o u r r e q u i r e m e n t s c o m b i n e d . T h i s a d d i t i o n i s t h a t " a n e x p l a n a t i o n o f a p a r t i c u l a r e v e n t i s n o t f u l l y a d e q u a t e u n l e s s i t s e x p l a n a n s , i f t a k e n a c c o u n t o f i n t i m e , c o u l d h a v e s e r v e d a s a b a s i s f o r p r e d i c t i n g t h e e v e n t i n q u e s t i o n . C o n s e q u e n t l y , w h a t e v e r w i l l b e s a i d . . . c o n c e r n i n g t h e l o g i c a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f e x p l a n a t i o n o r p r e d i c -t i o n w i l l b e a p p l i c a b l e t o e i t h e r . T h e i n i t i a l r e a c t i o n t o t h i s p r o v i s o w a s t o p o i n t o u t t h a t i t m u s t O b v i o u s l y b e f a l s e , e s p e c i a l l y i n t e r m s o f t h e c l a i m t h a t p r e d i c t i o n s c o u l d w a r r a n t a d e q u a t e e x p l a n a t i o n s . E l e m e n t a r y e x a m p l e s , s u c h a s t h e w e l l - k n o w n d i f f e r e n c e b e t w e e n c o r r e l a t i o n s , w h i c h c a n g e n e r a t e p r e d i c -t i o n s , a n d c a u s a l r e l a t i o n s h i p s , w h i c h a r e t h e f o u n d a t i o n s o f e x p l a n a t i o n s , 75 w e r e p u t f o r t h . A s a r e s u l t , B r o d b e c k w a s p r o m p t e d t o a t t e m p t a c l e a r d e f i n i t i o n o f p r e d i c t i o n , i n o r d e r t o d i s t i n g u i s h i t f r o m p r o p h e c y , o r n o n - e x p l a n a t o r y f o r e c a s t i n g : 44 I f b y ' p r e d i c t i o n . ' we mean a n y p r o p h e s y , o r s i m p l y •a c l a i m t h a t a t a c e r t a i n t i m e a c e r t a i n e v e n t w i l l o c c u r 1 , t h e n we may c e r t a i n l y p r e d i c t w i t h o u t b e i n g a b l e t o u n d e r s t a n d . O n t h e o t h e r h a n d , i f b y a p r e d i c t i o n we m e a n o n e f o r w h i c h r e a s o n s c a n b e g i v e n , t h e n a f t e r t h e e v e n t we s h o u l d b e a b l e t o e x p l a i n i t . 7 6 B r o d b e c k ' s d e f i n i t i o n i s h a r d l y a d e q u a t e , h o w e v e r . A s u d d e n d r o p i n b a r o m e t r i c p r e s s u r e i s c e r t a i n l y a g o o d r e a s o n f o r p r e d i c t i n g a s t o r m , b u t who w o u l d b e w i l l i n g t o s a y i t e x p l a i n s t h e s t o r m ? F u r t h e r a t t e m p t s a t j u s t i f i c a t i o n f a r e d n o b e t t e r , a n d , a s a c o n s e q u e n c e , H e m p e l f i n a l l y m o d i f i e d t h e o r i g i n a l p o s i t i o n : • • . t h e t h e s i s o f s t r u c t u r a l i d e n t i t y a m o u n t s t o t h e c o n j u n c t i o n o f t w o s u b - t h e s e s , n a m e l y ( I ) t h a t e v e r y a d e q u a t e e x p l a n a t i o n i s p o t e n t i a l l y a p r e d i c - t i o n . . . ( i i ) t h a t c o n v e r s e l y e v e r y a d e q u a t e p r e d i c -t i o n i s p o t e n t i a l l y a n e x p l a n a t i o n . . . . I w i l l a r g u e t h a t t h e f i r s t s u b - t h e s i s i s s o u n d , w h e r e a s t h e s e c o n d o n e i s i n d e e d o p e n t o q u e s t i o n . 7 7 W i t h t h i s m o d i f i c a t i o n , t h e t h e s i s o f a l o g i c a l s y m m e t r y b e t w e e n ex*-p l a n a t i o n a n d p r e d i c t i o n ( b u t n o t t h e t h e s i s t h a t c o m p l e t e e x p l a n a t i o n c a n . i m p l y p r e d i c t i o n ) i s s e t a s i d e , A l t h o u g h g e t t i n g a h e a d o f o u r s e l v e s a b i t , i t s e e m s p r o p i t i o u s a t t h i s t i m e t o m a k e a p o i n t w i t h r e f e r e n c e t o t h e q u e s t i o n o f t h e a c c u r a c y o f p o l i t i c a l s c i e n t i s t s ' u n d e r s t a n d i n g o f t h e D-N m o d e l o f e x p l a n a t i o n . I t s e e m s t h a t many p o l i t i c a l s c i e n t i s t s , i n c l u d i n g s o m e o f t h e d e d u c t i v -e l y - o r i e n t e d s c h o l a r s w e w i l l c o n s i d e r i n s e c t i o n I I I , h a v e f a i l e d t o n o t e t h i s i m p o r t a n t m o d i f i c a t i o n i n t h e d e d u c t i v e p o s i t i o n c o n c e r n i n g t h e r e l a -t i o n s h i p o f e x p l a n a t i o n a n d p r e d i c t i o n . F o r e x a m p l e , i n a n a r t i c l e y e w i l l e x a m i n e f u r t h e r o n ( w r i t t e n i n 1 9 7 2 ; e i g h t y e a r s a f t e r H e m p e l ' s r e -t r a c t i o n ) , O r a n Y o u n g r a t h e r g l i b l y i n f o r m s u s t h a t " m a n y i n v e s t i g a t o r s 45 pursue -the development of t h e o r i e s from an i n t e r e s t i n e x p l a n a t i o n r a t h e r p r e d i c t i o n , even though the l o g i c a l s t a t u s of e x p l a n a t i o n and p r e d i c t i o n 78 i s t r e a t e d as i d e n t i c a l by most philosophers of s c i e n c e . " L i k e w i s e , Davis Bobrow, i n another a r t i c l e i n the same volume,remarks: Explana t i o n and p r e d i c t i o n have the same s t r u c t u r e but d i f f e r e n t s t a r t i n g p o i n t s . When we e x p l a i n something, we s t a r t from an observed outcome and work backwards to e x p l a i n i t . ...When we p r e d i c t something, we s t a r t w i t h a s e t of p r i n c i p l e s and work out the consequences they i m p l y . ^ These formulations are neat and simple, but i n c o r r e c t . As such, they are reminiscent of the "broad pronouncements and s h i b b o l e t h s " r e f e r r e d to above by Gunnell (p. 12) i n that they f a i l to r e f l e c t an 80 adequate understanding of the model they c l a i m to represent. I t seems a f a i r guess that many p o l i t i c a l s c i e n t i s t s focus on p r e d i c t i v e , r a t h e r than explanatory, c r i t e r i a f o r t h e i r research designs not only because of the p r a c t i c a l c o n s i d e r a t i o n that p r e d i c t i v e hypotheses are e a s i e r to v e r i f y , but a l s o because of t h i s erroneous assumption t h a t p r e d i c t i o n , i f s u c c e s s f u l , w i l l s u f f i c e as e x p l a n a t i o n . For now, we can only say that t h i s assumption i s c e r t a i n l y not warranted by the D-N model of explana-t i o n as i t i s p r e s e n t l y formulated. The aspect of the e x p l a n a t o r y - p r e d i c t i v e t h e s i s that i s s t i l l defended by the deductive approach — that every adequate e x p l a n a t i o n i s p o t e n t i a l l y a p r e d i c t i o n — has a l s o come under a t t a c k . At i t s most s u p e r f i c i a l l e v e l , t h i s c r i t i c i s m notes such obvious p o i n t s as the f a c t that the e x p l a n a t i o n of laws, which presumably h o l d at a l l 81 times, can have no meaningful counterpart i n terms of a p r e d i c t i o n . At a more fundamental l e v e l , i t maintains that s c i e n t i s t s sometimes employ completely adequate explanatory arguments that have no c a p a c i t y , 46 i n p r i n c i p l e , f o r b e i n g c o n v e r t e d i n t o p r e d i c t i o n s . T h e d e b a t e s u r -r o u n d i n g t h i s c l a i m h a s o f t e n f o c u s s e d o n t h e q u e s t i o n o f w h e t h e r t h e e x p l a n a t o r y a c c o u n t o f o r g a n i c c h a n g e p u t f o r t h i n D a r w i n ' s t h e o r y o f e v o l u t i o n i s l e g i t i m a t e l y s c i e n t i f i c , s i n c e t h i s a c c o u n t i s a l m o s t u n i -v e r s a l l y u n d e r s t o o d t o b e n o n - p r e d i c t i v e . T o u l m i n , f o r e x a m p l e , o b s e r v e s t h a t " N o s c i e n t i s t h a s e v e r u s e d t h i s t h e o r y t o f o r e t e l l t h e c o m i n g - i n t o -e x i s t e n c e o f c r e a t u r e s o f a n o v e l s p e c i e s , s t i l l l e s s v e r i f i e d h i s f o r e -c a s t . Y e t many c o m p e t e n t s c i e n t i s t s h a v e a c c e p t e d D a r w i n ' s t h e o r y a s 82 h a v i n g g r e a t e x p l a n a t o r y p o w e r . " S i m i l a r l y , S c r i v e n c o n c l u d e s : T h e m o s t i m p o r t a n t l e s s o n t o b e l e a r n e d f r o m e v o l u t i o n a r y t h e o r y t o d a y i s a n e g a t i v e o n e : t h e t h e o r y s h o w s u s w h a t s c i e n t i f i c e x p l a n a t i o n s n e e d n o t d o . I n p a r t i c u l a r i t s h o w s u s t h a t o n e c a n n o t r e g a r d e x p l a n a t i o n s a s u n s a t i s f a c t o r y w h e n t h e y . . . a r e n o t s u c h a s t o e n a b l e t h e e v e n t i n q u e s t i o n t o h a v e b e e n p r e d i c t e d . ® 3 T h e d e d u c t i v e r e s p o n s e t o t h i s c r i t i q u e i s t o c o n t e n d t h a t D a r w i n -i a n e x p l a n a t i o n i s n o t a ' c o m p l e t e ' s c i e n t i f i c e x p l a n a t i o n . T h u s , H e m p e l w r i t e s : T h e s t o r y o f e v o l u t i o n m i g h t t e l l u s , f o r e x a m p l e , t h a t a t a c e r t a i n s t a g e i n t h e p r o c e s s d i n o s a u r s m a d e t h e i r a p p e a r a n c e a n d t h a t , s o m u c h l a t e r , t h e y d i e d o u t . S u c h a n a r r a t i v e a c c o u n t d o e s n o t , o f c o u r s e , e x p l a i n w h y t h e v a r i o u s k i n d s o f d i n o s a u r s w i t h t h e i r d i s t i n c t i v e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s c ame i n t o e x i s t e n c e , n o r d o e s i t e x p l a i n w h y t h e y b e c a m e e x t i n c t . I n d e e d , e v e n t h e a s s o c i a t e d t h e o r y o f m u t a t i o n a n d n a t u r a l s e l e c t i o n d o e s n o t a n s w e r t h e f i r s t o f t h e s e q u e s t i o n s , t h o u g h i t m i g h t b e h e l d t o s h e d s o m e l i g h t o n t h e l a t t e r . Y e t , e v e n t o a c c o u n t f o r t h e e x t i n c t i o n o f t h e d i n o s a u r s , we n e e d a v a s t a r r a y o f a d d i t i o n a l h y p o t h e s e s a b o u t t h e i r p h y s i c a l a n d b i o l o g i c a l e n v i r o n m e n t a n d a b o u t t h e s p e c i e s w i t h w h i c h t h e y h a d t o c o m p e t e f o r s u r v i v a l . . . . T h e u n d e n i a b l y g r e a t p e r s u a s i v e n e s s o f T o u l m i n ' s a r g u m e n t w o u l d s e e m t o d e r i v e f r o m two m a i n s o u r c e s , a w i d e s p r e a d t e n d e n c y 47 to regard the basically descriptive story of evolu-tion as explaining the various states of the process, and a similarly widespread tendency to overestimate the extent to which even the theory of mutation and natural selection can account for the details of the evolutionary sequence.84 We are, of course, i n no position to evaluate Hempel's charge as to the logical inadequacy of the Darwinian explanatory model. This i s an issue which must be l e f t to biologists and paleontologists, not p o l i t i c a l scientists. There i s ample evidence, however, that Darwinian explanation i s accepted as a legitimate, or even preeminent, form of explanation by 85 many scientists who are familiar with i t . Thus, we are l e f t , once again, with the question of deciding which holds priority i n cases of divergence, the reconstructed model of the "logic i n t r i n s i c i n science" or the explanatory procedures employed by practicing scientists. In coming down on the side of procedures rather than formal logic, we take a position similar to Toulmin's, who responds to Hempel's analysis of evolutionary explanation as follows: The Darwinian account of the origin of species... could be matched against his formal models only by the unrealizable requirement that we know vastly more about the prehistoric course of events than we actually do know. Does this mean so much the worse for the Hempelian models? No, i t means so much the worse for the Darwinian theory. ...Note that by refusing the term "explanation" to the theory of mutation and natural selection Hempel has in mind no shortcomings of a biological nature. A l l he objects to i s the failure of paleontologlcal reasoning to conform to his own a p r i o r i pat terns. 3. Context of Evaluation We have already noted several times that the problem of evaluation or testing i s of only minor importance to the D-N model of explanation. 48 This. Is. Jaecause # complete D»tt explanation JEonas, A eylltsgistic tautology (assuming a l l four of i t s requirements are met) and, as we have seen, the truth-content of a tautology i s non-contingently determined. There i s , however, a distinction made by deductivists with reference to explanations that bears a resemblance to the discovery-justification distinction made with reference to theories. This i s the distinction between the logical and pragmatic contexts of an explanation. As Hempel describes i t : . . . s c i e n t i f i c research seeks to account for empirical phenomena by means of laws and theories which are objective i n the sense that their em-p i r i c a l implications and their evidential sup-port are independent of what particular individuals happen to test or apply them; and the explanations are meant to be objective i n an analogous sense. This ideal intent suggests the problem of con-structing a non-pragmatic concept of s c i e n t i f i c ex-planation — a concept which i s abstracted, as i t were, from the pragmatic one, and which does not require relativization with respect to questioning individuals any more than does the concept of mathematical proof.^7 The pragmatic elements of an explanation are essentially i t s psy-chological and Contextual elements. They Involve such expressions as 'realm of understanding' and 'comprehensible', which cannot be incorpo-rated Into a logical analysis because they vary from one individual to 88 another. Thus, these aspects are separated from those which can be logically analyzed. As we have seen, however, to the extent that laws cannot be defined logically, pragmatics s t i l l Influence D-N explanations. On the other hand, to the extent that the analysis remains logical, this distinction allows us to account, for some of the abstract character of the model. I 49 4* Context of Application A l l four of the requirements ©•£ D-N explanation are confined to the areas of form and content. By now i t should be clear that the primary purpose of the deductive approach i s to n u l l i f y the effect of context on i t s model of s c i e n t i f i c explanation i n order to make i t equally applicable at a l l times and in a l l places. This goal, or the acceptance of i t s f e a s i b i l i t y , i s the assumption underlying the deductivist view of the sym-metry of physical and social science. The difference between the two i s in terms of the context within which they operate. If these contexts can be rendered irrelevant, then physical and social science become logically indistinguishable. As Brodbeck makes clear, "Virtually a l l those who ac-cept the deductive model hold that i t applies not only to physical but also to human phenomena, whether individual or social, whether i n the past 89 or i n the present." The goal of context-invariance was inherited by deductive forma-lism from i t s progenitor logical positivism. Toulmin notes the importance of this goal i n the work of both Frege and Russell: For the early Russell, as for Frege, concepts and propositions remained ideal, timeless en-t i t i e s which were captured at best incompletely by the colloquial words and sentences employed at one or another moment in history. The true character of the timeless entities could be displayed only i n logical terms, as a system of necessary relations; this meant that phi-losophers must develop a logical symbolism and calculus, by which to extend Frege and Peano's treatment of arithmetical concepts, f i r s t to mathematics as a whole, and then to the remain-ing concepts of natural science and practical l i f e . In this way, one might f i n a l l y separate off the philosophical analysis of concepts proper, which i s aimed at a formal system of 50 necessary relations, both from the historical study of changes in our collective conceptions and word-meanings, and from the psychological study of intellectual development in the ind i -vidual. In this way alone we would be sure of escaping the twin heresies of 1psychologism' and the 'genetic f a l l a c y ' . 9 0 This project envisioned by logical positivism was, as Toulmin goes on to show, doomed from the start. Its fundamental flaw lay i n i t s i n -ab i l i t y to j u s t i f y i t s own claim to universal authority: Universal authority may be claimed for an abstract, timeless system of 'rational standards', only i f i t has f i r s t been shown on what foundation the universal and unqual-i f i e d authority rests; but no formal schema can, by i t s e l f , prove i t s own applicability. Until the problem of authority is dealt with, our capacity to construct alternative logical systems is limited only by our formal ingenuity. Given these alternatives, we must then face the additional question, 'Why are we to accept this formal analysis, rather than that?' — a ques-tion which i s , evidently enough, concerned less with the internal consistency than with their power to throw ligh t on the merits of substant-ive arguments.9* Thus, present-day deductivists, i n contrast to their forebears, are careful to emphasize the practical benefits of the approach. Hempel, for example, notes that the D-N model " i s not, of course, susceptible to s t r i c t "proof"; i t s soundness has to be judged by the light i t can shed on the rationale and force of explanatory accounts offered i n different 9 2 branches of empirical science." Further, Hempel holds that although D-N explanation i t s e l f i s meant to be context-invariant, the decision as to whether or not a particular phenomenon can be explained deductively 9 3 is context-dependent, and therefore subject to pragmatic judgement. We can conclude, accordingly, that the area i n which invarfance i s f e l t I 51 t o be a c h i e v e d I s s t i l l q u i t e s m a l l . We c a n a l s o - n o t e , h o w e v e r , t h a t m u c h o f t h e a b s t r a c t n e s s t h a t c h a r a c t e r i z e s t h e d e d u c t i v e a p p r o a c h c a n b e s e e n a s a b y - p r o d u c t o f t h e e f f o r t t o o b t a i n e v e n t h i s s m a l l d e g r e e o f i n v a r l a n c e . I t w o u l d b e a m i s t a k e t o a s s u m e t h a t t h e s e i n d i c a t o r s o f t h e c a u -t i o u s n e s s o f m o d e m d e d u c t i v i s t s i m p l y t h a t t h e g o a l o f c o n t e x t - i n v a r i a n c e i s n o l o n g e r p u r s u e d . On t h e c o n t r a r y , t h e q u e s t f o r s c i e n t i f i c u n i t y u n d e r t h e d e d u c t i v e b a n n e r I s s t i l l v e r y m u c h a l i v e . T h e c a r e f u l l y c o m -p o s e d f o r m u l a s o f t h e m o s t i n f l u e n t i a l a n d k n o w l e d g e a b l e a d h e r e n t s t o t h e a p p r o a c h c o n t r a s t s t r i k i n g l y w i t h t h e b r a s h s l o g a n s o f t h e i r m o r e z e a l o u s f o l l o w e r s , s o m e o f whom we w i l l m e e t i n o u r d i s c u s s i o n o f d e d u c t i v e l y -o r i e n t e d p o l i t i c a l s c i e n t i s t s i n s e c t i o n I I I . C . H y p o t h e t i c o - D e d u c t i v e T h e o r y U n l i k e D-N e x p l a n a t i o n , h y p o t h e t i c o - d e d u c t i v e (H-D) t h e o r y i s n o t t h e p r o d u c t o f a s i n g u l a r , g e n e r a l l y r e c o g n i z e d f o r m u l a t i o n . . A s A l a n R y a n p o i n t s o u t , " I n t h e c a s e o f e l u c i d a t i n g t h e n a t u r e o f s c i e n t i f i c t h e o r i e s , t h e r e i s n o g e n e r a l c o n s e n s u s t o b e f o u n d , i n s p i t e o f a n e n o r m o u s l i t e r -a t u r e s e e k i n g t o u n r a v e l t h e d i s t i n c t i o n b e t w e e n t h e o r i e s a n d s u c h c l o s e 94 r e l a t i o n s a s m o d e l s , m a p s , m e t a p h o r s , a n d a n a l o g i e s / ' I n o r d e r t o m i n i m i z e t h e e f f e c t s o f t h i s l a c k o f c o n s e n s u s , I w i l l r e l y h e a v i l y o n t h e f o r m u l a t i o n s o f t h e m o r e i n f l u e n t i a l d e d u c t i v i s t s ; p r i m a r i l y H e m p e l , a n d s e c o n d a r i l y B r a i t h w a i t e , N a g e l , a n d P o p p e r . O f c o u r s e , t h e r e a r e a l s o d i f f e r e n c e s o f o p i n i o n h e r e w h i c h we w i l l c o n s i d e r , b u t t h e y a r e m i n o r i n c o m p a r i s o n t o t h e o v e r a l l a r e a o f a g r e e m e n t . W i t h t h e s e c a v e a t s i n m i n d . , w e c a n t u r n t o a n e x a m i n a t i o n o f H-D t h e o r y i n t e r m s o f t h e r e l a t i v e r o l e s 52 o f f p r a , c o n t e n t , c o n t e x t o f a p p l i c a t i o n , a n d c o n t e x t o f e v a l u a t i o n . 1. . F o rm A g o o d s t a r t i n g p o i n t f o r t h i s d i s c u s s i o n i s a c o n s i d e r a t i o n o f t h e l i n k b e t w e e n H-D t h e o r y a n d D-N e x p l a n a t i o n . W i l l a r d H u m p h r e y s n o t e s t h a t h y p o t h e t i c o - d e d u c t i v e t h e o r y " i s a n a t u r a l a n d p l a u s i b l e e x t e n s i o n o f t h e D e d u c t i v e - N o m o l o g i c a l p a t t e r n o f e x p l a n a t i o n i f we a s s u m e t h a t 95 t h e o r i e s a r e c o m p r e h e n s i v e s y s t e m s o f s c i e n t i f i c e x p l a n a t i o n s . " T h i s a s s u m p t i o n i s f u n d a m e n t a l t o t h e d e d u c t i v e v i e w o f t h e o r i e s . H e m p e l , f o r e x a m p l e , d e s c r i b e s t h e o r y i n a g e n e r a l s e n s e a s f o l l o w s : T h e o r i e s a r e u s u a l l y i n t r o d u c e d w h e n p r e v i o u s s t u d y o f a c l a s s o f p h e n o m e n a h a s r e v e a l e d a s y s t e m o f u n i f o r m i t i e s t h a t c a n b e e x p r e s s e d i n t h e f o r m o f e m p i r i c a l l a w s . T h e o r i e s t h e n s e e k t o a f f o r d a d e e p e r a n d m o r e a c c u r a t e u n -d e r s t a n d i n g o f t h e p h e n o m e n a i n q u e s t i o n . T o t h i s e n d , a t h e o r y c o n s t r u e s t h o s e p h e n o m e n a a s m a n i f e s t a t i o n s o f e n t i t i e s a n d p r o c e s s e s t h a t l i e b e h i n d o r b e n e a t h t h e m , a s i t w e r e . T h e s e a r e a s s u m e d t o b e g o v e r n e d b y c h a r a c t -e r i s t i c t h e o r e t i c a l l a w s , o r t h e o r e t i c a l p r i n -c i p l e s , b y m e a n s o f w h i c h t h e t h e o r y t h e n e x -p l a i n s t h e e m p i r i c a l u n i f o r m i t i e s t h a t h a v e b e e n p r e v i o u s l y d i s c o v e r e d , a n d u s u a l l y a l s o p r e d i c t s ' n e w ' r e g u l a r i t i e s o f s i m i l a r k i n d s . I n t h i s s e n s e , t h e p u r p o s e o f t h e o r i e s i s o f t e n s u m m a r i z e d b y t h e f a m i l i a r f o r m u l a t i o n , " S t a t e m e n t s o f i n d i v i d u a l f a c t a r e e x p l a i n e d b y 97 l a w s ; l a w s a r e e x p l a i n e d b y t h e o r i e s . " T h i s e x p l a n a t i o n i s a c h i e v e d , i n p a r t , b y t h e d e d u c t i v e s u b s u m p t i o n o f t h e l a w s u n d e r t h e o v e r a r c h i n g p r i n c i p l e s o f t h e t h e o r y . T h u s , H-D t h e o r i e s c o n s t i t u t e , i n K a p l a n ' s t e r m i n o l o g y , a h i e r a r c h i c a l c o n c e p t i o n o f t h e o r y : A h i e r a r c h i c a l t h e o r y i s o n e w h o s e c o m p o n e n t l a w s a r e p r e s e n t e d a s d e d u c t i o n s f r o m a s m a l l s e t o f b a s i c p r i n c i p l e s . A l a w i s e x p l a i n e d I 53 b y t h e d e m o n s t r a t i o n t h a t i t i s a l o g i c a l c o n s e q u e n c e o f t h e s e p r i n c i p l e s , a n d a f a c t i s e x -p l a i n e d w h e n i t i s s h o w n t o f o l l o w f r o m t h e s e t o g e t h e r w i t h c e r t a i n i n i t i a l c o n d i t i o n s . T h e h i e r a r c h y i s a d e d u c t i v e p y r a m i d , i n w h i c h we r i s e t o f e w e r a n d m o r e g e n e r a l l a w s a s we move f r o m c o n c l u s i o n s t o t h e p r e m i s e s w h i c h e n t a i l t h e m . 9 8 O r , i n B r a i t h w a i t e ' s w o r d s , " a s c i e n t i f i c s y s t e m [ t h e o r y ] c o n s i s t s o f a s e t o f h y p o t h e s e s w h i c h f o r m a d e d u c t i v e s y s t e m ; t h a t i s , w h i c h i s a r -r a n g e d i n s u c h a w a y t h a t f r o m some o f t h e h y p o t h e s e s a s p r e m i s e s a l l t h e 99 o t h e r h y p o t h e s e s f o l l o w . " T h i s a s p e c t o f H-D t h e o r y — t h e f o r m a l a s p e c t — i s c l o s e l y a n a l o g o u s t o t h e c o r r e s p o n d i n g f o r m a l i s m o f D-N e x p l a n a t i o n . T h u s , i n t h e p r e s e n t d i s c u s s i o n we w i l l h a v e t h e o p p o r t u n i t y t o n o t e s i m i l a r i t i e s b e -t w e e n t h e t w o m o d e l s . H o w e v e r , a s we m e n t i o n e d a b o v e , a t h e o r y i s a b i t m o r e c o m p l i c a t e d t h a n a n e x p l a n a t i o n a n d , a s a r e s u l t , i n o u r d i s c u s s i o n s o f c o n t e n t a n d c o n t e x t we w i l l s e e how t h e o r i e s d i f f e r f r o m e x p l a n a t i o n s i n f u n d a m e n t a l w a y s . T h e f o r m a l d e d u c t i v e p r o p e r t i e s o f H-D t h e o r i e s a l l o w u s t o e x t e n d o u r e x a m i n a t i o n o f t h e n a t u r e o f l a w s t o t h e t h e o r e t i c a l c o n t e x t . We c a n s e e now m o r e c l e a r l y w h a t w a s m e a n t b y t h e s t a t e m e n t t h a t l a w s , i n c o n -t r a s t t o e m p i r i c a l g e n e r a l i z a t i o n s a n d a c c i d e n t a l u n i v e r s a l s , e x h i b i t a r e l a t i v e n o n - c o n t i n g e n c y w i t h r e s p e c t t o t h e t h e o r y t h e y h e l p c o n s t i t u t e . T h i s n o n - c o n t i n g e n c y r e s u l t s f r o m t h e i r b e i n g ' l o c k e d i n t o ' t h e b r o a d e r d e d u c t i v e n e t w o r k o f t h e t h e o r y . A s H e m p e l p u t s i t : . . . A s t a t e m e n t o f u n i v e r s a l f o r m , w h e t h e r e m p i r i c -a l l y c o n f i r m e d o r a s y e t u n t e s t e d , w i l l q u a l i f y a s a l a w i f i t i s i m p l i e d b y a n a c c e p t e d t h e o r y ( s t a t e -m e n t s o f t h i s k i n d , a r e o f t e n r e f e r r e d t o a s t h e o r e t i c a l l a w s ) ; b u t e v e n i f i t i s e m p i r i c a l l y 54 w e l l c o n f i r m e d a n d p r e s u m a b l y t r u e i n f a c t , i t w i l l n o t q u a l i f y a s a l a w i f i t r u l e s o u t c e r t a i n h y p o t h e t i c a l o c c u r r e n c e s . . . w h i c h a n a c c e p t e d t h e o r y q u a l i f i e s a s p o s s i b l e . 1 ° ° T h u s , t h e d i f f e r e n c e b e t w e e n l a w s a n d o t h e r l a w - l i k e s t a t e m e n t s c a n n o t b e d i s c e r n e d b y a n e x a m i n a t i o n o f t h e s y n t a c t i c a l e l e m e n t s o f t h e s t a t e m e n t s a l o n e . I t r e q u i r e s t h e e x a m i n a t i o n o f t h e t h e o r e t i c a l c o n t e x t w i t h i n : w h i c h t h e s t a t e m e n t s t a n d s . ' B a c k g r o u n d k n o w l e d g e ' , t h e n , i n t h e d e d u c t -i v e u n d e r s t a n d i n g o f t h e t e r m , m u s t r e f e r t o t h e f o r m a l d e d u c t i v e t h e o r y t h a t u n d e r l i e s a g i v e n l a w . I n t h i s w a y , t h e c o n t e x t u a l e l e m e n t s o f a n e x p l a n a t i o n c a n s t i l l b e h e l d t o b e i n t h e d o m a i n o f l o g i c a l , a s o p p o s e d t o p s y c h o l o g i c a l o r h i s t o r i c a l , a n a l y s i s . I n t h e t r a d i t i o n a l d e d u c t i v e v i e w o f H-D t h e o r i e s , t h e f o r m a l s t r u c t u r e o f t h e t h e o r y — u s u a l l y r e f e r r e d t o a s t h e c a l c u l u s — i s h e l d t o b e a n a l y t i c a l l y p r i o r t o t h e e m p i r i c a l c o n t e n t o f t h e t h e o r y . A s H a n s o n d e s c r i b e s i t : . . . a s c i e n t i f i c t h e o r y i s ( i d e a l l y ) a d e d u c t i v e s t r u c t u r e , a n i n f e r e n t i a l r e t i c u l u m , a n a l g o r i t h m , a p h y s i c a l i n t e r p r e t a t i o n o f w h i c h i s e x p l i c i t l y b r o u g h t a b o u t b y c o u p l i n g t e r m s a n d f o r m a l p r o p e r t i e s o f t h e a l g o r i t h m t o o b j e c t s a n d p r o c e s s e s w i t h i n a s u b j e c t m a t -t e r . I n t e r p r e t i n g a t h e o r y i s s o m e t h i n g d o n e t o f o r m a l l y f i n i s h e d f r a m e w o r k s . I t i s some 1 -t h i n g c l a m p e d o n t o a t h e o r y ; o r p e r h a p s i t i s " h o o k i n g " o f t h e o r y t o s u b j e c t m a t t e r s o m e w h a t l i k e t h e h o o k i n g o f w i r e m e s h o v e r t h e f r a m e o f w h a t w i l l b e c o m e a m o d e l e d s t a t u e . L ^ T h i s f o r m u l a t i o n , h o w e v e r , h a s r e c e n t l y c o m e u n d e r a t t a c k f r o m d e d u c t i v i s t s a n d n o n - d e d u c t i v i s t s a l i k e . F o r e x a m p l e , H e m p e l p o i n t s o u t t h a t o v e r e m p h a s i s o n a x i o m a t i z a t i o n ( t h e p r o c e s s o f f o r m a l i z i n g a c a l -c u l u s ) l e a d s t o a d i s r e g a r d o f t h e s u b s t a n t i v e i m p o r t o f t h e t h e o r y . 55 "Generally speaking, the formalization of the internal principles as a calculus sheds no light on...interpretation. It sheds light at best on 1 0 2 part of the s c i e n t i f i c theory in question." Further, i n response to the claim that axiomatization makes explicit the foundation assumptions of a s c i e n t i f i c theory, Hempel notes that: ...axiomatization i s basically an expository device, determining a set of sentences and ex-hibiting their logical relationships, but not their epistemic grounds and connections. A s c i e n t i f i c theory admits of many different axiom-*tizations, and the postulates chosen in a par-ticular one need not, therefore, correspond to what i n some more substantial sense might count as the basic assumptions of the theory; nor need the terms chosen as primitive i n a given axiom-matization represent what on epistemological or other grounds might qualify as the basic con-cepts of the theory; nor need the formal defin-itions of other theoretical terms by means of the chosen primitives correspond to statements which in science would be regarded as definit-ionally true and thus analytic. A similar, but perhaps more far-reaching, criticism i s made by Hanson, who also holds that formalism cannot be analytically prior to interpretation: It i s not a question of meaning being pumped up (or "seeped up" or "zipped up") through an already designed algebraic form-alism. Rather, the facts of s c i e n t i f i c l i f e require us- to attend to formalisms being pumped up...from algebraic expressions already rich with meanings, charged with structural represent-ations of phenomena, and informative as to what matters most within our observational encounters in...science. Hanson goes one step further, however, and declares that the formal and interpretive aspects of a theory are, i n fact, indissoluble, and that any attempt to analytically separate them must perforce f a i l to achieve a f u l l 56 understanding of the theory: To restrict one's philosophical attention, focusing now only on syntactical structure, and later on the host of semantic issues involving interpretation and meaning — this is to have failed to recognize that "physical theory" is an indissolubly complex concept to begin with. ...But complexity is not confusion. When analysis results in destroying complexity in the name of clearing up confusions, to that extent it destroys the concept in question. It slices i t out of existence. To talk of the formalism within a physical theory is not to be talking about the physical theory itself. To dis-cuss only the "interpretation" of the theory is also not to be discussing the theory itself... . To chop theories apart into formalism and inter- pretation — and then to identify only the form-alism with the "theory" — is the simple mistake of misplaced discreteness.^-0 The reason Hanson can take this further critical step is because he is discussing scientific theories as produced by practicing scientists. Hempel, on the other hand, is discussing a certain reconstruction of scientific theories which, in his opinion, is problematic as a recon-struction, not as a theory. He does not specifically challenge the formalism-interpretation distinction here; he merely questions the empha- sis on formalism. We will see further on, however, that other aspects of Hempel's latest position could be construed as rejecting this traditional deductivist distinction. These two criticisms are particularly valuable to our present con-cerns in that they illustrate quite well the tenuous relationship between scientific theories and axiomatized reconstructions of those theories. This tenuousness is worth stressing here, since it is important not to make the mistake of confusing the two when considering the question of theoretical structure in international politics. Hempel, who is always 57 c a r e f u l t o a v o i d c o n f u s i o n , i s h e l p f u l o n t h i s p o i n t . He e m p h a s i z e s , f o r e x a m p l e , t h a t r e c o n s t r u c t i o n " w a s n e v e r c l a i m e d t o p r o v i d e a d e s c r i p t i v e a c c o u n t o f t h e a c t u a l f o r m u l a t i o n a n d u s e o f t h e o r i e s b y s c i e n t i s t s i n t h e o n g o i n g p r o c e s s o f s c i e n t i f i c i n q u i r y ; i t w a s i n t e n d e d , r a t h e r , a s a s c h e m a t i c e x p l i c a t i o n t h a t w o u l d c l e a r l y e x h i b i t c e r t a i n l o g i c a l a n d 106 e p i s t e m o l o g i c a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f s c i e n t i f i c t h e o r i e s . " O t h e r s h a v e n o t b e e n s o c a r e f u l , h o w e v e r , a n d a s a r e s u l t t h e r e h a v e b e e n s e v e r a l c a s e s o f a t t e m p t s t o ' p u t t h e c a r t b e f o r e t h e h o r s e ' a n d d e v e l o p a x i o m -a t i z a t i o n s o f s c i e n c e s f o r t h e p u r p o s e o f m a k i n g p r e s c r i p t i v e r e c o m m e n d a -t i o n s c o n c e r n i n g t h e f u t u r e c o n d u c t o f i n q u i r y w i t h i n t h o s e s c i e n c e s . One s u c h c a s e i s J . H . W o o d g e r ' s a t t e m p t s t o a x i o m a t i z e b i o l o g y . T o u l m i n c o n c l u d e s t h a t a t l e a s t t h e p a r t o f t h i s a x i o m a t i z a t i o n w h i c h w a s m e a n t t o a p p l y t o g e n e t i c s " c o u l d h a v e b e e n — i f h i s p r o f e s s i o n a l c o l l e a g u e s h a d t a k e n s e r i o u s n o t i c e o f i t — a m a j o r o b s t a c l e t o p r o g r e s s i n t h e s c i e n c e . " L i k e a g o o d l o g i c a l e m p i r i c i s t , h e i n t e r p r e t e d t h e o r e t i c a l s t a t e m e n t s i n g e n e t i c s a s u n i v e r s a l o r s t a t i s t i c a l c o r r e l a t i o n s b e t w e e n o b s e r v a b l e m a c r o s c o p i c c h a r a c t e r s i n a n i m a l p o p u l a t i o n s . N e x t , h e s e t a b o u t r e d e f i n i n g t h e t e r m " g e n e " a s a n " i n t e r v e n i n g v a r i a b l e " i n t h e s y s t e m o f f o r m a l t h e o r e m s l i n k i n g s u c h o b s e r v a b l e c h a r a c -t e r s . I n t h i s w a y h e p l a y e d d o w n a l m o s t e n t i r e l y t h e c y t o l o g i c a l a n d b i o c h e m i c a l t h e o r i e s f r o m w h i c h g e n e t i c s h a d s o m u c h t o g a i n . E v e n h e u r i s t i c a l l y a x i o m a t i z a t i o n w a s i n t h i s c a s e a h a n d i c a p r a t h e r t h a n a h e l p . - * - 0 8 I n s u m m a r y , t h e n , i t a p p e a r s t h a t w h e n H-D t h e o r i e s h a v e b e e n o r i e n t e d p r i m a r i l y t o w a r d f o r m a l c r i t e r i a o f a d e q u a c y , t h e e m p i r i c a l e l e m e n t s o f t h e t h e o r i e s h a v e t e n d e d t o a t r o p h y . H a n s o n h a s p u t i t w e l l : 58 I n d e e d , t h e r e c a y b e a n i n v e r s e r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n t h e d e g r e e o f f o r m a l e l e g a n c e b u i l t i n t o a . . . t h e o r y a n d t h e p o s s i b i l i t y o f a p p l y i n g i t t o r e a l l y i n t r i c a t e p h e n o m e n a a t t h e f r o n t i e r s o f r e s e a r c h . I f t h e i n v e s t i g a t o r ' s e y e i s f i x e d u p o n p e r p l e x i t i e s w i t h i n t h e s u b j e c t m a t t e r , h i s t h e o r y i s s u r e t o b e s y n t a c t i c a l l y i n e l e g a n t . B u t , i f h i s c o n c e r n i s w i t h f o r m a l e l e g a n c e , a t -t e n t i o n w i l l n o t l o n g r e m a i n o n t h e i n t r i c a c i e s w i t h i n t h e d a t a t h e m s e l v e s . ^ - 0 9 2. C o n t e n t I n d i s c u s s i n g h o w H - D t h e o r i e s h a n d l e t h e p r o b l e m o f c o n t e n t , w e w i l l t a k e a s o u r s t a n d a r d H e m p e l ' s l a t e s t i d e a s o n t h e s u b j e c t . T h e s e i d e a s i n v o l v e , a s w e h a v e j u s t s e e n , a s h i f t i n e m p h a s i s f r o m t h e f o r m a l t o t h e s u b s t a n t i v e a s p e c t s o f t h e o r i e s . A s s u c h , t h e y d i f f e r i n i m p o r t a n t r e s p e c t s f r o m h i s , a n d m o s t o t h e r d e d u c t i v i s t s ' , e a r l i e r f o r m u l a t i o n s . S i n c e t h i s s h i f t i s b a s i c a l l y i n f a v o r c f t h e p r i o r i t i e s a d v o c a t e d i n t h e i n t r o d u c t i o n t o t h i s t h e s i s , w e w i l l b e p a r t i c u l a r l y i n t e r e s t e d i n a s -c e r t a i n i n g w h y , a n d t o w h a t d e g r e e , H e m p e l h a s c h a n g e d h i s m i n d . T h e o r i e s , o n H e m p e l ' s a c c o u n t , c o n t a i n t w o k i n d s o f p r i n c i p l e s ; i n t e r n a l p r i n c i p l e s a n d b r i d g e p r i n c i p l e s . I n t e r n a l p r i n c i p l e s " s e r v e t o c h a r a c t e r i z e t h e t h e o r e t i c a l s e t t i n g o r t h e ' t h e o r e t i c a l s c e n a r i o ' : t h e y s p e c i f y t h e b a s i c e n t i t i e s a n d p r o c e s s e s p o s i t e d b y t h e t h e o r y , a s w e l l a s t h e t h e o r e t i c a l l a w s t h a t a r e a s s u m e d t o g o v e r n t h e m . " B r i d g e p r i n -c i p l e s , o n t h e o t h e r h a n d , " i n d i c a t e t h e w a y s i n w h i c h t h e s c e n a r i o i s l i n k e d t o t h e p r e v i o u s l y e x a m i n e d p h e n o m e n a w h i c h t h e t h e o r y i s i n t e n d e d t o e x p l a i n . " ' ' " ^ T h e s e t w o t y p e s o f p r i n c i p l e s a r e e x p r e s s e d i n t e r m s o f t w o t y p e s o f v o c a b u l a r i e s : T h e f o r m u l a t i o n o f t h e i n t e r n a l p r i n c i p l e s w i l l t y p i c a l l y m a k e u s e o f a t h e o r e t i c a l v o c a b u l a r y V<y, i . e , , a s e t o f t e r m s n o t e m p l o y e d i n t h e e a r l i e r 59 d e s c r i p t i o n s o f , a n d g e n e r a l i z a t i o n s a b o u t , t h e e m p i r i c a l p h e n o m e n a w h i c h T [ t h e t h e o r y ] i s t o e x p l a i n , b u t r a t h e r i n t r o d u c e d s p e c i f i c a l l y t o c h a r a c t e r i z e t h e t h e o r e t i c a l s c e n a r i o a n d i t s l a w s . T h e b r i d g e p r i n c i p l e s w i l l e v i d e n t l y con* * t a i n b o t h t h e t e r m s o f V T a n d t h o s e o f t h e v o c a b -u l a r y u s e d i n f o r m u l a t i n g t h e o r i g i n a l d e s c r i p t i o n s o f , a n d g e n e r a l i z a t i o n s a b o u t , t h e p h e n o m e n a f o r w h i c h t h e t h e o r y i s t o a c c o u n t . T h i s v o c a b u l a r y w i l l t h u s b e a v a i l a b l e a n d u n d e r s t o o d b e f o r e t h e i n t r o d u c t i o n o f t h e t h e o r y , a n d i t s u s e w i l l b e g o v e r n e d b y p r i n c i p l e s w h i c h , a t l e a s t i n i t i a l l y , a r e i n d e p e n d e n t o f t h e t h e o r y . L e t u s r e f e r t o i t a s t h e p r e - t h e o r e t i c a l , o r a n t e c e d e n t , v o c a b - u l a r y , V ^ , r e l a t i v e t o t h e t h e o r y i n q u e s t i o n . x ^ I n t e r n a l p r i n c i p l e s , a l t h o u g h p r i m a r i l y e m p l o y i n g t h e o r e t i c a l t e r m s , a l s o make u s e o f t h e p r e - t h e " re f i e a 1 v o c a b u l a r y . T h u s , t h e y i n v o l v e a m e a s u r e o f e m p i r i c a l c o n t e n t t h a t i s u n a v a i l a b l e t o t h e a x i o m a t i z e d c a l -c u l u s d i s c u s s e d a b o v e . H e m p e l d i s t i n g u i s h e s b e t w e e n t h e t w o c o n c e p t s a s f o l l o w s : T h e a s s u m p t i o n , i n t h e s t a n d a r d c o n s t r u a l , o f a n a x i o m a t i z e d u n i n t e r p r e t e d c a l c u l u s a s a c o n s t i t u e n t o f a t h e o r y s e e m s t o m e . . . t o o b s c u r e c e r t a i n i m p o r t a n t c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s s h a r e d b y many s c i e n t i f i c t h e o r i e s . F o r t h a t a s s u m p t i o n s u g g e s t s t h a t t h e b a s i c p r i n c i p l e s o f t h e t h e o r y — t h o s e c o r r e s p o n d i n g t o t h e c a l c u l u s — a r e f o r m u l a t e d e x c l u s i v e l y b y m e a n s o f a " n e w " t h e o -r e t i c a l v o c a b u l a r y , w h o s e t e r m s w o u l d b e r e p l a c e d b y v a r i a b l e s o r b y dummy c o n s t a n t s i n t h e a x i o m a t i z e d c a l c u l u s . . . . A c t u a l l y , h o w e v e r , t h e i n t e r n a l p r i n c i p l e s o f m o s t s c i e n t i f i c t h e o r i e s e m p l o y n o t o n l y " n e w " t h e o r e t i c a l c o n c e p t s b u t a l s o " o l d , " o r p r e - t h e o r e t i c a l , o n e s t h a t a r e c h a r a c t e r i z e d i n t e r m s o f t h e a n t e c e d e n t v o c a b u l a r y . F o r t h e t h e o r e t i c a l s c e n a r i o i s n o r m a l l y d e s c r i b e d i n p a r t b y m e a n s o f t e r m s t h a t h a v e a u s e , a n d a r e u n d e r s t o o d , p r i o r t o , a n d i n d e p e n d e n t l y o f , t h e i n t r o d u c t i o n o f t h e t h e o r y . ^ 2 H e m p e l * s m o d i f i c a t i o n o f t h e c a l c u l u s c o n c e p t , t h e n , h a s t h e e f f e c t o f a n c h o r i n g t h e e m p i r i c a l i m p o r t o f t h e t h e o r y d i r e c t l y t o i t s m o s t ' t h e o r e t i c a l ' p r i n c i p l e s . T h i s c a n b e s e e n a s a n i m p o r t a n t s t e p i n t h e d i r e c t i o n o f r e c o g n i z i n g t h e i n d i s s o l u b i l i t y o f f o r m a n d i n t e r p r e t a t i o n 60 a d v o c a t e d by Hanson above. M o r e o v e r , i t i s an i m p o r t a n t s t e p i n l e s s -e n i n g the gap between a t h e o r y and i t s l o g i c a l r e c o n s t r u c t i o n . S t i l l , i n t e r n a l p r i n c i p l e s a l o n e a r e n o t adequate t o c o n s t i t u t e a t h e o r y . To the e x t e n t t h a t t h e y a r e t h e o r e t i c a l ( a b s t r a c t o r d e f i n e d i n terms o f n o n o b s e r v a b l e s ) , they must be e x p l i c i t l y l i n k e d t o o b s e r v a b l e e m p i r i c a l phenomena. T h i s i s the r o l e o f b r i d g e p r i n c i p l e s . " W i t h o u t b r i d g e p r i n c i p l e s . . . a t h e o r y w o u l d have no e x p l a n a t o r y p o w e r . . . i t w o u l d 113 a l s o be i n c a p a b l e o f t e s t . " I n i l l u s t r a t i n g how b r i d g e p r i n c i p l e s a c h i e v e t h e s e p u r p o s e s , Hempel r e s o r t s t o examples f r o m p h y s i c a l s c i e n c e . We can c o n s i d e r two h e r e : I n t h e c l a s s i c a l k i n e t i c t h e o r y o f g a s e s , t h e i n t e r n a l p r i n c i p l e s a r e a s s u m p t i o n s about gas m o l e c u l e s ; they c o n c e r n t h e i r s i z e , t h e i r mass, t h e i r l a r g e number; and t h e y i n c l u d e a l s o v a r i o u s l a w s , p a r t l y t a k e n o v e r f r o m c l a s s i c a l m e c h a n i c s , p a r t l y s t a t i s t i c a l i n n a t u r e , p e r t a i n i n g t o t h e m o t i o n s and c o l l i s i o n s o f t h e m o l e c u l e s , and t o t h e r e s u l t i n g changes i n t h e i r momenta and e n e r g i e s . The b r i d g e p r i n c i p l e s i n c l u d e s t a t e m e n t s s u c h as t h a t t h e t e m p e r a t u r e o f a gas i s p r o p o r t i o n a l t o t h e mean k i n e t i c energy o f i t s m o l e c u l e s , and t h a t the r a t e s a t w h i c h d i f f e r e n t gases d i f f u s e t h r o u g h t h e w a l l s o f a c o n t a i n e r a r e p r o p o r t i o n a l t o t h e numbers o f m o l e c u l e s o f t h e gases i n ques-t i o n and t o t h e i r a v e r a g e speeds. By means o f s u c h b r i d g e p r i n c i p l e s , c e r t a i n m i c r o - c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f a gas, w h i c h b e l o n g t o t h e s c e n a r i o o f t h e k i n e t i c t h e o r y , a r e l i n k e d t o m a c r o s c o p i c f e a t u r e s s u c h as t e m p e r a t u r e , p r e s s u r e , and d i f f u s i o n r a t e ; t h e s e can be d e s c r i b e d , and g e n e r a l i z a t i o n s c o n c e r n i n g them can be f o r m u l a t e d , i n terms o f an a n t e c e d e n t l y a v a i l a b l e v o c a b u l a r y , namely, t h a t o f c l a s s i c a l thermodynamics. And some o f t h e f e a t u r e s i n q u e s t i o n m i g h t w e l l be r e g a r d e d as r a t h e r d i r e c t l y o b s e r v a b l e o r m e a s u r a b l e . B r i d g e p r i n c i p l e s , however, do n o t a l w a y s l i n k n o n o b s e r v a b l e s and o b s e r v a b l e s . S p e c i f i c a l l y , t h e y l i n k t h e "new" v o c a b u l a r y o f t h e t h e o r y 61 In question to an antecedently available vocabulary. This antecedently available vocabulary need not describe observable phenomena; i t may just as well describe other nonobservables which are held to be understood because of their position within another, different, well accepted theory. For example, when discussing Bohr's early theory of the hydrogen atom, Hempel notes that the bridge principles of the theory connect theoretical entities ('atom', 'electron') to the wavelengths of certain lines i n the emission spectrum of hydrogen. "These wavelengths are not observables i n the ordinary sense of the word, and they cannot be simply of directly measured as, say, the length and width of a picture frame of the weight of a bag of potatoes." Their measurement i s a highly indirect procedure that rests on a great many assumptions, including those of the wave theory of light. But i n the context we are considering, those assumptions are taken for granted; they are presupposed even i n just stating the uniformity for which a theoretical explanation i s sought. Thus, the phenomena to which bridge principles link the basic entities and pro-cesses assumed by a theory need not be "directly" observable or measurable: they may well be char-acterized i n terms of previously established theories, and their observation or measurement may presuppose the principles of those theories. Just as internal principles are introduced because of the d i f f i c u l -ties inherent In the axiomatized calculus, so bridge principles are i n -troduced as an alternative to the other main constituent of the tra-ditional H-D conception; the correspondence rules, Hempel'8 critique of correspondence rules i s especially pertinent to the concerns of thia-thesls, since i t highlights some very important limitations of the standard deductive approach. Correspondence rules have usually been conceived as "a class of I 62 s e n t e n c e s t h a t a s s i g n e m p i r i c a l c o n t e n t t o t h e e x p r e s s i o n s o f t h e c a l -c u l u s ; a n d t h e i r d e s i g n a t i o n a s o p e r a t i o n a l d e f i n i t i o n s , c o o r d i n a t i v e d e f i n i t i o n s , o r r u l e s o f c o r r e s p o n d e n c e c o n v e y s t h e s u g g e s t i o n t h a t t h e y h a v e t h e s t a t u s o f m e t a l i n g u i s t i c p r i n c i p l e s w h i c h r e n d e r c e r t a i n s e n -t e n c e s t r u e b y t e r m i n o l o g i c a l c o n v e n t i o n o r l e g i s l a t i o n . " T h e s e n t e n c e s t h u s d e c l a r e d t r u e — l e t u s c a l l t h e m i n t e r p r e t i v e s e n t e n c e s — w o u l d b e l o n g t o a n o b j e c t l a n g u a g e c o n t a i n i n g b o t h t h e c a l c u l u s a n d t h e p r e - t h e o r e t i c a l t e r m s e m p l o y e d i n t h e i n -t e r p r e t a t i o n . T h e t h e o r e t i c a l t e r m s i n t h e c a l -c u l u s a r e t h e n b e s t t h o u g h t o f a s " n e w " c o n s t a n t s . t h a t a r e b e i n g i n t r o d u c e d i n t o t h e o b j e c t l a n -g u a g e b y m e a n s o f t h e c o r r e s p o n d e n c e r u l e s f o r t h e p u r p o s e o f f o r m u l a t i n g t h e t h e o r y . T h e i n t e r p r e t -i v e s e n t e n c e s m i g h t h a v e t h e f o r m o f e x p l i c i t d e f i n i t i o n s e n t e n c e s ( b i c o n d i t i o n a l s o r i d e n t i t i e s ) f o r t h e o r e t i c a l t e r m s , o r t h e y m i g h t b e o f a m o r e g e n e r a l t y p e . . . . B u t a t a n y r a t e , t h e y w o u l d b e s e n t e n c e s w h o s e t r u t h i s g u a r a n t e e d b y t l j ja c o r -r e s p o n d e n c e r u l e s . T h e p r o b l e m w i t h t h i s f o r m u l a t i o n , i n H e m p e l ' s v i e w , i s t h a t o n c e t h e t r u t h o f a s t a t e m e n t i s g u a r a n t e e d b y d e f i n i t i o n , t h e s t a t e m e n t b e c o m e s i m p e r v i o u s t o e m p i r i c a l t e s t a n d s u b s e q u e n t r e v i s i o n o r r e j e c t i o n . T h e p r e s e n c e o f s u c h s t a t e m e n t s i n t h e d e d u c t i v e r e c o n s t r u c t i o n o f t h e o r i e s d o e s n o t m a t c h w e l l w i t h t h e s i t u a t i o n w i t h i n a c t u a l t h e o r i e s , w h e r e " s c i e n t i f i c s t a t e m e n t s t h a t a r e i n i t i a l l y i n t r o d u c e d b y ' o p e r a t i o n a l d e f i n i t i o n s ' . . . u s u a l l y c h a n g e t h e i r s t a t u s i n r e s p o n s e t o n e w e m p i r i c a l 1 1 8 f i n d i n g s a n d t h e o r e t i c a l d e v e l o p m e n t s . " H e r e , t h e n , t r u t h b y c o n v e n -t i o n i s i n a p p r o p r i a t e a n d H e m p e l a p p r o v i n g l y q u o t e s Q u i n e , " c o n v e n t i o n -a l i t y i s a p a s s i n g t r a i t , s i g n i f i c a n t a t t h e m o v i n g f r o n t o f s c i e n c e , 1 1 9 b u t u s e l e s s i n c l a s s i f y i n g t h e s e n t e n c e s b e h i n d t h e l i n e s . " A n o t h e r w a y t o i n t e r p r e t t h i s c r i t i c i s m i s t o s a y t h a t H e m p e l i s r e j e c t i n g t h e 63 a n a l y t i c - s y n t h e t i c d i s t i n c t i o n b y m a i n t a i n i n g t h a t a n a l y t i c ( t r u e by d e f i n i t i o n ) s t a t e m e n t s a r e s e l d o m f o u n d i n r e a l - l i f e t h e o r i e s . " F o r , w i t h t h e p o s s i b l e e x c e p t i o n o f t h e t r u t h s o f l o g i c a n d m a t h e m a t i c s , n o 120 s t a t e m e n t e n j o y s t h i s k i n d o f a b s o l u t e i m m u n i t y . " T h u s , o n c e a g a i n , H e m p e l i s s h i f t i n g t h e e m p h a s i s a w a y f r o m t h e f o r m a l ( a n a l y t i c ) a s p e c t s o f t h e d e d u c t i v e r e c o n s t r u c t i o n t o i t s e m p i r i c a l ( s y n t h e t i c ) a s p e c t s . B r i d g e p r i n c i p l e s , a s o p p o s e d t o t h e i n t e r p r e t i v e s e n t e n c e s g e n e r a t e d b y c o r r e s p o n d e n c e r u l e s , a r e e m p i r i c a l l y c o n t i n g e n t a n d s u s c e p t i b l e t o t e s t . B e f o r e p r o c e d i n g t o a c o n s i d e r a t i o n o f s o m e o f t h e i m p l i c a t i o n s o f H e m p e l ' s r e f o r m u l a t i o n a s a w h o l e , o n e p o i n t s h o u l d b e m e n t i o n e d h e r e w h i c h w i l l b e d e v e l o p e d l a t e r w h e n we come t o e x a m i n e t h e c o n t e x t o f j u s t i f i c a t i o n o f H-D t h e o r i e s . T h i s i s t h e q u e s t i o n o f t h e t r u t h - c o n t e n t o f l a w s a n d t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p o f H .1) t h e o r y a n d D-N e x p l a n a t i o n . F r o m t h i s d i s c u s s i o n o f c o r r e s p o n d e n c e r u l e s a n d H e m p e l ' s c r i t i q u e o f t h e f e a s i b i l i t y o f t r u t h b y c o n v e n t i o n , i t f o l l o w s t h a t n o l a w c a n e v e r b e p r o c l a i m e d t r u e b y c o n v e n t i o n . M o r e o v e r , i t f o l l o w s t h a t t h e t r u t h o f a l a w c a n n o t b e g u a r a n t e e d b y t h e f a c t t h a t I t i s c o n t a i n e d w i t h i n t h e d e d u c t i v e r e t i c u l u m o f a t h e o r y . T h i s may b e a n e c e s s a r y c o n d i t i o n , b u t i t i s n o t a s u f f i c i e n t o n e . A f u r t h e r r e q u i r e m e n t , o f c o u r s e , i s t h a t t h e l a w u n d e r g o e m p i r i c a l v e r i f i c a t i o n ( w h i c h i s t h e t o p i c we w i l l t a k e u p w i t h r e f e r e n c e t o j u s t i f i c a t i o n ) . F o r n o w , w e c a n n o t e t h a t t h i s d u a l p r o c e s s o f t h e o r e t i c a l a n d e m p i r i c a l s u b s t a n t i a t i o n m u s t b e c a p a b l e o f p r o v i n g a l a w t o b e t r u e . O t h e r w i s e , a p o t e n t i a l c o n t r a d i c t i o n i s c r e a t e d b e t w e e n t h e H-D a n d D-N m o d e l s , s i n c e t h e l a t t e r d e m a n d s t r u e l a w s i n o r d e r t o a d e q u a t e l y e x p l a i n p h e n o m e n a . 64 With this point i n mind, we can now turn to the c r i t i c a l implica-tions of Hempel'8 reformulation of the content of H-D theories. F i r s t , i t appears that the formalism-interpretation distinction has been decisively rejected. As we have seen, both internal principles and bridge principles contain theoretical as well as antecedently available terms. As a result, Hempel's new construal i s better suited to the task of accurately reflecting the formal and interpretive aspects of r e a l -l i f e theories than is i t s deductive predecessor.This accuracy, however, has been purchased at a high logical price. As Hempel makes clear, the new distinction i s not precise: . . . i t should be exp l i c i t l y acknowledged...that no precise criterion has been provided for d i s t i n -guishing internal principles from bridge principles. In particular, the dividing line cannot be charac-terized syntactically, by reference to the consti-tuent terms... .Nor is the difference one of epistemic status, such as truth by convention versus empirical truth. The distinction i s , thus, ad-mittedly vague. In order to introduce realism into the deductive model, Hempel has had to sacrifice analytic rigor. This does not speak well for the adequacy of the former model's conceptualization of the "logic i n t r i n s i c i n science." In fact, to the extent that i t eschews log i c a l distinctions, Hempel's reformulation does not speak well for the adequacy of the 122 logical approach in general. A second implication of Hempel's model follows from his inclusion of antecedently available terms i n the vocabulary of the internal prin-ciples of a theory. This inclusion seems to imply that the unit of meaningful analysis of the deductive approach should be shifted from 65 t h e i n d i v i d u a l t h e o r y t o t h e f a m i l y o f t h e o r i e s w h i c h c o n t r i b u t e m e a n i n g -t o t h e t e r m s e m p l o y e d i n t h a t i n d i v i d u a l t h e o r y . F o r o n c e i t i s a d m i t t e d t h a t a t l e a s t s o m e o f t h e t e r m s w h i c h a r e c e n t r a l t o t h e m e a n i n g o f a g i v e n t h e o r y a r e d e f i n e d i n r e l a t i o n t o o t h e r t h e o r i e s , t h e n i t f o l l o w s t h a t t h i s t h e o r y c a n n o t b e f u l l y u n d e r s t o o d , a n d t h e r e f o r e l o g i c a l l y e v a l u a t e d , e x -c e p t i n c o n j u n c t i o n w i t h a n e q u i v a l e n t u n d e r s t a n d i n g a n d e v a l u a t i o n o f t h o s e o t h e r t h e o r i e s . T h u s , n o t h e o r y c a n b e u n d e r s t o o d i n i s o l a t i o n . T h i s i m p l i c a t i o n l e a d s t o s o m e d i f f i c u l t p r o b l e m s f o r t h e a p p l i c a -t i o n o f d e d u c t i v e a n a l y s i s t o s o c i a l s c i e n c e i n g e n e r a l o r i n t e r n a t i o n a l p o l i t i c s i n p a r t i c u l a r . A s we h a v e e m p h a s i z e d r e p e a t e d l y , t h e d e d u c t i v e m o d e l i s a t o o l f o r e v a l u a t i n g t h e l o g i c a l a d e q u a c y o f e x i s t i n g t h e o r i e s , n o t a g u i d e f o r p r o d u c i n g f u t u r e t h e o r i e s . A s s u c h i t may b e a p p l i c a b l e t o c e r t a i n i s o l a t e d d e d u c t i v e t h e o r i e s i n i n t e r n a t i o n a l p o l i t i c s ( I n d e e d , we w i l l b e p u r s u i n g t h i s n o t i o n i n s e c t i o n I V . ) H o w e v e r , i n n o n e o f t h e s e t h e o r i e s c a n i t b e s a i d t h a t a l l t h e t e r m s i n v o l v e d i n t h e i r i n -t e r n a l p r i n c i p l e s a r e a n t e c e d e n t l y d e f i n e d i n o t h e r , e q u a l l y f o r m a l , t h e o r i e s . O n t h e c o n t r a r y , t h e s e m a n t i c s o u r c e s o f m o s t t e r m s e m p l o y e d i n t h e s e t h e o r i e s a r e e x p l i c i t l y ' c o m m o n - s e n s e 1 a t b e s t , a n d h o p e l e s s l y o b s c u r e a t w o r s t . F o r s u c h i s o l a t e d t h e o r i e s , o n H e m p e l ' s n e w a c c o u n t , a n a d e q u a t e l y f u l l d e d u c t i v e e v a l u a t i o n i s i m p o s s i b l e . F u r t h e r , i t a p -p e a r s t h e r e w i l l b e a l o n g w a i t b e f o r e t h e r e q u i r e d t h e o r e t i c a l i n t e r -r e l a t e d n e s s I s a t t a i n e d i n a n y s o c i a l s c i e n c e o u t s i d e o f e c o n o m i c s . T h e q u e s t i o n i s : Do we w a i t u n t i l t h e p r e r e q u i s i t e s f o r d e d u c t i v e a n a l y s i s a r e m e t o r d o w e b e g i n l o o k i n g f o r o t h e r e v a l u a t i v e t o o l s m o r e c l o s e l y a t t u n e d t o t h e p r o b l e m s o f s o c i a l s c i e n c e t h e o r i e s ? 3. C o n t e x t o f A p p l i c a t i o n W h e r e a s i n o u r a n a l y s i s o f t h e D-N m o d e l o f e x p l a n a t i o n we 66 emphasized the context of application over the context of evaluation, just the opposite approach is required in the present analysis. Thus, here we have very little to say that has not already been said with reference to explanation. The goal of context-invariance is equally ap-plicable to the H-D formulation. Moreover, the purpose of this goal is the same; to guarantee the formal indistinguishability of physical and social theories and thereby to unify the logical structure of a l l empirical science. And, as we have seen, the goal s t i l l appears to be far from attained. 4. Context of Evaluation The importance of the context of evaluation to the H-D model of theory reflects a fundamental difference between this model and the D-N model of explanation. Quite simply, the difference is that hypothetico-deductive theories are hypothetical. They are subject to test, and to subsequent revision or rejection if necessary. D-N explanations, on the other hand, must be testable in principle, but, as we have noted, are not expected to fail such a test since their premises are required to be true in the first place. There is no analogous requirement concerning the truth of the premises of a theory. As a result, the only way a theory can be verified is through empirical testing. This is why the context of evaluation plays such a prominent role in the analysis of H-D theories, a. Discovery As we observed in the introduction, the scope allotted to the con-text of discovery by an approach to philosophy of science is an important 67 v a r i a b l e i n e v a l u a t i n g h o w h e l p f u l t h a t c o n c e p t i o n w o u l d b e t o a y o u n g s c i e n c e i n n e e d o f p r o c e d u r a l g u i d e l i n e s . I t a p p e a r s t h a t , i n v i e w o f i t s g o a l s o f c o n t e x t - i n v a r i a n c e a n d l o g i c a l t r a c t a b i l i t y , t h e d e d u c t i v e a p p r o a c h d e m a n d s a n e x t r e m e l y l a r g e c o n t e x t o f d i s c o v e r y , i n c l u d i n g a l l a s p e c t s o f s c i e n c e t h a t c o u l d b e c o n s t r u e d a s p s y c h o l o g i c a l o r h i s t o r i c a l i n n a t u r e . W e s l e y S a l m o n o u t l i n e s t h e g e n e r a l d e d u c t i v i s t v i e w : I f o n e a c c e p t s t h e d i s t i n c t i o n b e t w e e n d i s c o v e r y a n d j u s t i f i c a t i o n a s v i a b l e , t h e r e i s a s t r o n g t e m p t a t i o n t o m a i n t a i n t h a t t h i s d i s t i n c t i o n m a r k s t h e b o u n d a r i e s b e t w e e n h i s t o r y o f s c i e n c e a n d p h i l o s o p h y o f s c i e n c e . H i s t o r y i s c o n c e r n e d w i t h t h e f a c t s s u r r o u n d i n g t h e g r o w t h a n d d e v e l o p -m e n t o f s c i e n c e ; p h i l o s o p h y i s c o n c e r n e d w i t h t h e l o g i c a l s t r u c t u r e o f s c i e n c e , e s p e c i a l l y w i t h t h e e v i d e n t i a l r e l a t i o n s b e t w e e n d a t a a n d h y p o t h e s e s o r t h e o r i e s . . . . T h e i t e m s i n t h e c o n t e x t o f d i s -c o v e r y a r e p s y c h o l o g i c a l l y r e l e v a n t t o t h e s c i e n t i f i c c o n c l u s i o n ; t h o s e i n t h e c o n t e x t o f j u s t i f i c a t i o n a r e l o g i c a l l y r e l e v a n t t o i t . S i n c e t h e p h i l o s o p h e r o f s c i e n c e i s c o n c e r n e d w i t h l o g i c a l r e l a t i o n s , n o t p s y c h o l o g i c a l o n e s , h e i s c o n c e r n e d w i t h t h e r a t i o n a l l y r e c o n s t r u c t e d t h e o r y , n o t b y t h e a c t u a l p r o c e s s b y w h i c h i t a c a m e i n t o b e i n g . i 2 ^ P r o b a b l y t h e m o s t s i g n i f i c a n t c o n s e q u e n c e s o f t h i s v i e w i s t h a t t h e d e d u c t i v e a p p r o a c h o f f e r s n o s u g g e s t i o n s f o r t h e o r y c o n s t r u c t i o n . I n a f o r m a l s e n s e , t h i s i s b e c a u s e t h e r e c a n b e n o l o g i c a l r u l e s f o r s u c h a p r o c e d u r e . T h u s , H e m p e l d i s p a r a g e s t h e q u e s t f o r " r u l e s o f i n d u c t i o n " i n t h e s t u d y o f s c i e n t i f i c m e t h o d o l o g y : G e n e r a l l y s p e a k i n g , s u c h r u l e s w o u l d e n a b l e u s t o i n f e r , f r o m a g i v e n s e t o f d a t a , t h a t h y p o t h e s i s o r g e n e r a l i z a t i o n w h i c h a c c o u n t s b e s t f o r a l l t h e p a r t i c u l a r d a t a i n t h e g i v e n s e t . B u t t h i s o o n -s t r u a l o f t h e p r o b l e m i n v o l v e s a m i s c o n c e p t i o n : W h i l e t h e p r o c e s s o f i n v e n t i o n b y w h i c h s c i e n t i f i c d i s c o v e r i e s a r e m a d e i s a s a r u l e p s y c h o l o g i c a l l y g u i d e d a n d s t i m u l a t e d ' , h^. antecedent k n o w l e d g e o f 68 s p e c i f i c f a c t s , i t s r e s u l t s a r e n o t l o g i c a l l y d e t e r m i n e d b y t h e m ; t h e w a y i n w h i c h s c i e n t i f i c h y p o t h e s e s o r t h e o r i e s a r e d i s c o v e r e d c a n n o t b e m i r r o r e d i n a s e t o f g e n e r a l r u l e s o f i n d u c t i v e i n f e r e n c e . - ' • 2 4 We c a n c o n c l u d e , t h e r e f o r e , t h a t d e d u c t i v i s t s a r e n o t i n t e r e s t e d i n t h e p r o b l e m s o f t h e o r y b u i l d i n g o r m e t h o d o l o g y a n d , b e y o n d n o t i n g t h a t s u c h p r o b l e m s a r e a p r o d u c t o f c r e a t i v e i m a g i n a t i o n a n d i m p e r v i o u s t o l o g i c a l a n a l y s i s , h a v e n o t h i n g t o s a y a b o u t t h e m . T h e i r e m p h a s i s , r a t h e r , i s o n t e s t i n g . A s M c M u l l i n n o t e s : S c i e n c e [ i n t h e l o g i c a l s e n s e ] d o e s n o t h a v e a h i s t o r y , s t r i c t l y s p e a k i n g ; t h e t e n t a t i v e g r o p i n g t h a t p r e c e d e s t h e f o r m u l a t i o n o f c o n c e p t o r a x i o m i s i n n o w a y r e f l e c t e d i n t h e f i n a l p r o d u c t , a n d t h e o n l y s p e c i f i a b l e m e t h o d o l o g y f o r s c i e n c e i s c l e a r l y t h a t o f l o g i c a l d e m o n s t r a t i o n . . . . T h e o n l y f r u i t f u l m e t h o d o l o g i c a l i s s u e s , t h e r e -f o r e , c o n c e r n t h e w a y i n w h i c h d i f f e r e n t p r o p o s i - . t i o n s i n t h e s y s t e m a r e . r e l a t e d t o o n e a n o t h e r , t h e t y p e s o f i n f e r e n c e u s e d t o v a l i d a t e o n e p r o p o -s i t i o n o n t h e b a s i s o f o t h e r s . W h a t i s s o u g h t i s a l o g i c a l t h e o r y o f c o n f i r m a t i o n w h i c h w i l l a l l o w o n e t o j u s t i f y a " s c i e n t i f i c " p r o p o s i t i o n b y a p -p l y i n g a s e t o f l o g i c a l r u l e s . . . t o t h e p r o p o s i t i o n s c o n s t i t u t i n g t h e e v i d e n c e . ^ 2 5 T h i s s t r i c t d i c h o t o m i z a t i o n h a s b e e n s u b j e c t e d t o v a r i o u s s o r t s o f o f c r i t i c i s m , m o s t o f w h i c h c l u s t e r a r o u n d e i t h e r o f t w o c o n c l u s i o n s . On t h e o n e h a n d , t h e r e a r e c r i t i c s w h o h o l d t h a t t h e d i s t i n c t i o n , w h i l e l e g i t i m a t e , i s o v e r s t a t e d . T h u s , S a l m o n n o t e s t h a t " T h e r e i s n o r e a s o n a t a l l w h y o n e a n d t h e s a m e i t e m c a n n o t b e b o t h p s y c h o l o g i c a l l y a n d 1 2 6 l o g i c a l l y r e l e v a n t t o s o m e g i v e n h y p o t h e s i s . 1 1 S i m i l a r l y , H a n s o n m a i n t a i n s t h a t s h a r p d i f f e r e n t i a t i o n d i s c o u r a g e s c r i t i c a l p h i l o s o p h i c a l a n a l y s i s o f t h e c o n c e p t s ( a s o p p o s e d t o t h e i r o r i g i n s ) u s u a l l y r e l e g a t e d 69 to the context of discovery: The slogan contrast between "the context of just i f i c a t i o n " and "the context of discovery" i s often advanced to s t i f l e queries that are funda-mentally conceptual in character. Too many ex-plorations into the concept of discovery have been dismissed by contemporary analysts as turn-ing on issues of psychology and history, when i t i s our very ideas of discovery, of creativity, and of innovation which are at issue in such inquiries On the other hand, there are c r i t i c s who claim that no legitimate differentiation can be made between the two contexts. This view often rests on the conclusion that the context of ju s t i f i c a t i o n i s a pseudo-context, purportedly free of psychological influences, but i n reality permeated by them. As Israel Scheffler puts i t : It has been suggested that the justificatory processes of science themselves f a i l to object-i v i t y , that personal factors in actuality permeate not only the genesis of theory but also i t s evaluation, and that psychology i s therefore crucially r e l -evant to the explanation of both. The fundamental Reichenbachian distinction...has accordingly been rejected, together with his correlative distinction between episteraology and psychology, neither dis-tinction being capable of saving objectivity as an actual feature of the processes of science.-*-28 A similar sentiment i s apparent i n Feyerabend's statement that "the theory which is suggested by a scientist w i l l also depend, apart from the facts at his disposal, on the tradition i n which he participates, on his preferences, on his aesthetic judgements, on the suggestions of his friends, and on other elements which are rooted, not in facts, but 129 in the mind of the theoretician and which are therefore subjective." Feyerabend goes further, however, and posits that a firm adherence 70 to the d i s c o v e r y - j u s t i f i c a t i o n d i s t i n c t i o n does not merely ignore methodological i s s u e s , but a c t u a l l y subverts e f f e c t i v e research. I n -t e r e s t i n g l y enough, he bases t h i s argument on a view of o b s e r v a t i o n l a n -guages as products of antecedently a v a i l a b l e t h e o r i e s that i s q u i t e s i m i l a r to that adopted by Hempel. U n l i k e Hempel, however, who accepts the antecedently a v a i l a b l e notions as already t e s t e d and v e r i f i e d , Feyerabend sees t h e i r use as implying that they should be subjected to t e s t i n l i g h t of the notions of the new theory, and not j u s t the other way around. In t h i s way, o l d e r assumptions are c o n s t a n t l y brought up f o r r e a p p r a i s a l , and conceptual s t a g n a t i o n i s thereby combatted: Research at i t s best i s an i n t e r a c t i o n between new t h e o r i e s which are s t a t e d i n an e x p l i c i t manner and o l d e r views which have c r e p t i n t o the observation language. I t i s not a one-sided a c t i o n of the one upon the other. Reasoning w i t h i n the context of j u s t i f i c a t i o n , however, presupposes that one s i d e of t h i s p a i r , v i z . o b s e r v a t i o n , has f r o z e n , and t h a t the p r i n c i -p l e s which c o n s t i t u t e the o b s e r v a t i o n concepts are p r e f e r r e d to the p r i n c i p l e s of a newly i n -vented p o i n t of view. ...[we] should r a t h e r demand that our methodology t r e a t e x p l i c i t and i m p l i c i t a s s e r t i o n s , d o u b t f u l and i n t u i t i v e l y evident t h e o r i e s , known and unconsciously h e l d p r i n c i p l e s , i n e x a c t l y the same way, and that i t provide means f o r the discovery and the c r i t i c i s m of the l a t t e r . . . 1 3 0 Thus, Feyerabend concludes that the j u s t i f i c a t i o n - d i s c o v e r y d i s -t i n c t i o n i s d e t r i m e n t a l to e f f e c t i v e research. This view i s shared by 131 o t h e r s . We can take i t as one more p o i n t worthy of n o t i c e i n our e v a l u a t i o n of the adequacy of deductive formalism as a model of s c i e n c e f o r i n t e r n a t i o n a l p o l i t i c s . 71 b . J u s t i f i c a t i o n The t e s t i n g of H-D theories must be c a r r i e d out from the bottom up. This i s because the highest l e v e l b""">the3es of the theory are usua l ly so general as to have no d i r e c t e x p e r i e n t i a l or observat iona l r e f e r e n t . As Brai thwai te puts i t : As the h ierarchy of hypotheses of i n c r e a s i n g genera l i ty r i s e s , the concepts with which the hypotheses are concerned cease to be proper t i e s of things which are d i r e c t l y observable , and ins tead become ' t h e o r e t i c a l ' concepts . . .which are connected to observable fac t s by complicated l o g i c a l r e l a t i o n s h i p s . ^ 2 In order to tes t these highest l e v e l hypotheses, then, i t i s necessary to make use of the deductive interconnect ions between hypotheses and absorb the tes t impl i ca t ions of the lowest l e v e l hypotheses upwards i n t o the formal s t ruc ture of the theory: The e m p i r i c a l t e s t ing of the deductive system i s e f fected by t e s t ing the lowes t - l eve l -hypo-theses In the system. The conf irmat ion or r e f u t a t i o n of these i s the c r i t e r i o n by which the t r u t h of a l l the hypotheses i n the system i s tes ted . The establishment of a system as a set of true propos i t ions deper/.s upon the ^ 3 establishment of i t s lowes <:-level hypotheses. Thus, to use W.V.O. Quine's apt metaphor, a theory meets experience only 1 3 4 at i t s per iphery . There are two p o s s i b l e outcomes when a hypothesis i s tested against observat ions; e i t h e r the observations w i l l be i n agreement with e m p i r i c a l p r e d i c t i o n s made by the hypothes i s , or they w i l l not . Each of these out -comes impl ies d i f f e r e n t consequences, as w e l l as d i f f e r e n t problems, f o r the v e r i f i c a t i o n procedure. We w i l l consider f a l s i f i c a t i o n f i r s t , s ince i t i s l o g i c a l l y l e ss problemat ic , then w i l l turn to a cons iderat ion of conf irmat ion. K a r l P o p p e r , f o r o n e , h a s a s s e r t e d t h a t f a l s i f i c a t i o n I s t h e o n l y l e g i t i m a t e t e s t t h a t c a n b e p u t t o t h e o r i e s b y e x p e r i e n c e . He w r i t e s : . . . I s h a l l c e r t a i n l y a d m i t a s y s t e m a s e m p i r i c a l o r s c i e n t i f i c o n l y i f i t i s c a p a b l e o f b e i n g t e s t e d b y e x p e r i e n c e . T h e s e c o n s i d e r a t i o n s s u g g e s t n o t t h a t t h e v e r i f i a b i l i t y b u t t h e f a l s i f i a b i l i t y o f a s y s t e m i s t o b e t a k e n a s a c r i t e r i o n o f d e m a r c a t i o n . I n o t h e r w o r d s , I s h a l l n o t r e q u i r e o f a s c i e n t i f i c s y s t e m t h a t i t s h a l l b e c a p a b l e o f b e i n g s i n g l e d o u t o n c e a n d f o r a l l , i n a p o s i t i v e s e n s e ; b u t I s h a l l r e q u i r e t h a t i t s l o g i c a l f o r m s h a l l b e s u c h t h a t i t c a n b e s i n g l e d o u t , b y m e a n s o f e m p i r i c a l t e s t , i n a n e g a t i v e s e n s e : i t m u s t b e p o s s i b l e  f o r a n e m p i r i c a l s c i e n t i f i c s y s t e m t o b e r e f u t e d  b y e x p e r i e n c e . T o t h e e x t e n t t h a t P o p p e r i s h e r e d i s c u s s i n g s c i e n t i f i c s y s t e m s a n d n o t s i n g l e h y p o t h e s e s , we c a n o n l y c o n c l u d e t h a t h i s a s s e r t i o n t h a t f a l s i f i c a t i o n , w h i c h m u s t t a k e p l a c e a t t h e p e r i p h e r y o f a t h e o r y , c a n r e f u t e t h e t h e o r y a s a w h o l e i s a t b e s t a s i m p l i f i c a t i o n . T h i s c a n b e s h o w n b y e x a m i n i n g t h e l o g i c o f f a l s i f i c a t i o n a b i t m o r e p r e c i s e l y . S u p p o s e t h a t h y p o t h e s e s H 2 > E^, ••• » H n a r e e m p l o y e d i n d e d u c i n g t h e o b s e r v a t i o n a l c o n s e q u e n c e H . I f H s h o u l d t u r n o u t t o b e f a l s i f i e d b y e x p e r i e n c e , t h e n i t i s c l e a r t h a t a t l e a s t o n e o f t h e h y p o t h e s e s H^ m u s t b e r e g a r d e d a s f a l s e . L i k e w i s e , i f t h a t H^ i s , i n t u r n , l o g i c a l l y d e d u c e d f r o m h i g h e r l e v e l h y p o t h e s e s H ' , , H ' , . . . H ' , t h e n a t l e a s t L l . m o n e o f t h e s e m u s t a l s o b e f a l s e . T h u s , t h e i m p l i c a t i o n s o f t h e o b s e r v a -136 t i o n a l f a l s i f i c a t i o n ' s e e p s u p ' i n t o t h e t h e o r e t i c a l s y s t e m . H o w -e v e r , a n d t h i s i s t h e p o i n t we a r e m a i n l y i n t e r e s t e d i n , t h e a s s e r t i o n t h a t a t l e a s t o n e h i g h e r l e v e l h y p o t h e s i s m u s t b e f a l s e i n n o w a y i m p l i e s t h e f a l s i f i c a t i o n o f a l l t h e h y p o t h e s e s i n v o l v e d , a s P o p p e r ' s a c c o u n t s e e m s t o c l a i m . I n f a c t , t h e r e i s e v e n a s e r i o u s q u e s t i o n c o n c e r n i n g 73 -whether any specific implicated higher levol hypothesis can he d««ieive>~ ly refuted in such a case. This is emphasized by Braithwaite: ...in the case of almost a l l scientific hypotheses, except the straightforward generalizations of observable facts which serve as the lowest-level hypotheses in the deductive system, complete r e f u -tation is no more possible than complete proof. What experience can t e l l us is that there is some-thing wrong somewhere in the system; but we can make our choice as to which part of the system we con-sider to be at fault. In almost every system i t is possible to maintain any one hypothesis in the face of apparently contrary evidence at the expense of modifying the others. ...But at some time a point is reached at which the modifications in a system required to save a hypothesis become more im-plausible than the rejection of the hypothesis; and then the hypothesis is rejected.13' Thus, the logic of falsification is much more complicated and ambiguous than Popper's formulation would lead us to believe. If for a moment we move beyond the logic to the pragmatics of falsification, we can note further that even the incontrovertible refutation of a complete theory does not necessarily imply its rejection. In the absence of an adequate alternative, scientists may be forced to retain the falsified theory for some time. The classic example of this is the numerous problems that became evident with the Newtonian theory of gravitation throughout the 1800s. Until Einstein's alternative emerged in 1905, however, there was no question of a simple discarding of Newton's formulation. Although falsified in many contexts, i t was, quite simply, 138 the best alternative available. The logic of falsification, although problematic, can at least be justified as valid in terms o f deductive inference. No doubt this is why 74 Popper f i n d s i t so a p p e a l i n g . Such i s not the case w i t h the l o g i c of c o n f i r m a t i o n , however, which i s based on i n d u c t i v e i n f e r e n c e and i s t h e r e f o r e subject to extreme d i f f i c u l t i e s i n terms of p u r e l y l o g i c a l c r i t e r i a . T h i s can r e a d i l y be seen by r e c o n s i d e r i n g the h y p o t h e t i c a l example o u t l i n e d above. Suppose again that hypothes are employed i n deducing the o b s e r v a t i o n a l consequence H . Suppose t h i s t ime, however, that the outcome p r e d i c t e d by H i s observed to o c c u r . What, then, can we i n f e r about the h i g h e r l e v e l hypothesis H^? The answer, i f our j u s t i f i c a t i o n i s l i m i t e d to the r u l e s o f l o g i c a l i n f e r e n c e , i s that we cannot i n f e r anything about the t r u t h of any of the hypotheses from the one ' c o n f i r m i n g ' i n s t a n c e . In f a c t , even i f we had a great number of confirming i n s t a n c e s , the i n f e r e n c e would s t i l l be u n j u s t i f i e d . There i s simply no l o g i c a l j u s t i f i c a t i o n f o r i n d u c t i v e l y l e a p i n g from 139 a s i n g u l a r statement to a g e n e r a l i z a t i o n of u n i v e r s a l form. Thus as Salmon puts i t , "The main shortcomings o f the H-D method are s t r o n g l y suggested by the f a c t t h a t , g iven any f i n i t e body of o b s e r v a -t i o n a l evidence, there a r e i n f i n i t e l y many hypotheses which a r e c o n -firmed by i t i n e x a c t l y the same manner. "^"^ T h i s l o g i c a l t r u i s m stands i n obvious c o n t r a s t to the f a c t that such ' u n j u s t i f i e d ' i n f e r e n c e s are made every day, and f o r good r e a s o n s , i n the a c t u a l p r a c t i c e of s c i e n c e . T h i s becomes understandable when we r e a l i z e that these reasons are pragmatic and not l o g i c a l . With r e f e r -ence to the q u e s t i o n of c o n f i r m a t i o n , such pragmatic c o n s i d e r a t i o n s u s u a l l y i n v o l v e assessments of e i t h e r the e v i d e n t i a l o r t h e o r e t i c a l s u p -p o r t o f a given h y p o t h e s i s . Hempel notes s e v e r a l f a c t o r s which tend to 75 i n c r e a s e t h e l e v e l o f c o n f i r m a t i o n i n a g i v e n h y p o t h e s i s . P o r i n s t a n c e , i n t e r m s o f e v i d e n c e , a h y p o t h e s i s c a n b e r e g a r d e d a s m o r e s t r o n g l y c o n -f i r m e d t h e m o r e t i m e s i t h a s b e e n f a v o r a b l y t e s t e d , t h e g r e a t e r t h e v a r i e t y a n d d i v e r s i t y o f t e s t s i t h a s p a s s e d , a n d t h e g r e a t e r t h e p r e -c i s i o n i n t e r m s o f m e a s u r e m e n t t o l e r a n c e s o f t e s t s i t h a s p a s s e d . I t i s a l s o m o r e h i g h l y c o n f i r m e d w h e n I t i m p l i e s new t e s t s f o r i t s e l f a n d t h e n p a s s e s t h e s e f a v o r a b l y . I n t e r m s o f t h e o r e t i c a l s u p p o r t , a s we h a v e a l r e a d y s e e n i n o u r d i s c u s s i o n o f l a w s , a h y p o t h e s i s i s m o r e h i g h l y c o n f i r m e d w h e n i t i s l o g i c a l l y d e d u c i b l e f r o m m o r e i n c l u s i v e h y p o t h e s e s 1 4 1 o r t h e o r i e s t h a t h a v e i n d e p e n d e n t e v i d e n t i a l s u p p o r t . T h e s e n o r m s o f c o n f i r m a t i o n c a n n e v e r b e f u l l y s a t i s f a c t o r y f r o m a d e d u c t ! v i s t p o i n t o f v i e w , h o w e v e r . T h i s i s b e c a u s e t h e y s i m p l y a l l o w t o o many p r a g m a t i c , p s y c h o l o g i c a l , a n d l o g i c a l l y u n j u s t i f i e d c o n s i d e r a -t i o n s i n t o t h e c o n t e x t o f j u s t i f i c a t i o n . O n e a t t e m p t t o c i r c u m v e n t t h i s d i f f i c u l t y h a s b e e n s u g g e s t e d b y S a l m o n , who a d v o c a t e s t h e u s e o f B a y e s T h e o r e m i n o r d e r t o i n j e c t w h a t h e c a l l s " p l a u s i b i l i t y a r g u m e n t s " i n t o t h e e v i d e n t i a l f o u n d a t i o n s o f a h y p o t h e s i s . A p l a u s i b i l i t y a r g u -m e n t i s , e s s e n t i a l l y , " a n a s s e s s m e n t o f . . . t h e p l a u s i b i l i t y o f a h y p o -t h e s i s , p r i o r t o , o r a p a r t f r o m , t h e r e s u l t s d i r e c t l y t e s t i n g t h e h y p o -1 4 2 t h e s i s . " O n S a l m o n ' s v i e w , t h e s e a r g u m e n t s . . . a r e c o n s i d e r a t i o n s r e l a t i n g t o t h e a c c e p t a n c e o r r e j e c t i o n o f s c i e n t i f i c h y p o t h e s e s w h i c h , o n t h e H-D a c c o u n t , m u s t b e j u d g e d e v i d e n t i a l l y i r -r e l e v a n t t o t h e t r u t h o r f a l s i t y o f t h e h y p o -t h e s i s , b u t w h i c h a r e , n e v e r t h e l e s s , u s e d b y s c i e n t i s t s i n m a k i n g d e c i s i o n s a b o u t s u c h a c -c e p t a n c e o r r e j e c t i o n . T h e s e s a m e i t e m s , o n t h e B a y e s i a n a c c o u n t , b e c o m e e v i d e n t i a l l y r e l e v a n t . H e n c e , t h e j u d g e m e n t o f w h e t h e r 76 s c i e n t i s t s a r e m a k i n g d e c i s i o n s o n t h e b a s i s o f e v i d e n c e , o r o n t h e b a s i s o f v a r i o u s p s y c h o l o g i c a l o r s o c i a l f a c t o r s t h a t a r e e v i d e n t i a l l y i r r e l e v a n t h i n g e s c r u c i a l l y u p o n t h e q u e s t i o n o f w h e t h e r t h e H-D o r t h e B a y e s i a n a c c o u n t o f s c i e n t i f i c i n f e r -e n c e i s m o r e n e a r l y c o r r e c t . i 4 3 S a l m o n ' s s u g g e s t e d r e f o r m u l a t i o n a p p e a r s t o b e m o r e a d e f i n i t i o n a l s l e i g h t - o f - h a n d t h a n a n a c t u a l s o l u t i o n , h o w e v e r . I t m e r e l y c a l l s p s y c h o l o g i c a l f a c t o r s ' e v i d e n t i a l ' w i t h o u t c o m i n g t o g r i p s w i t h e i t h e r t h e i r a r b i t r a r i n e s s o r v a r i a b i l i t y among i n d i v i d u a l s . A s a r e s u l t , 1 4 4 t h i s a p p r o a c h , l i k e o t h e r s s i m i l a r t o i t , d o e s n o t c o n t r i b u t e t o e x -1 4 5 t r i c a t i n g t h e d e d u c t i v e p o s i t i o n f r o m i t s d i l e m m a . T o d a t e , t h e m o s t h i g h l y d e v e l o p e d p o t e n t i a l s o l u t i o n t h a t s e e m s c o m p a t i b l e w i t h t h e u n d e r l y i n g a s s u m p t i o n s o f d e d u c t i v i s m i s R u d o l f 1 4 6 C a r n a p ' s l o g i c a l c o n f i r m a t i o n f u n c t i o n . C a m a p ' s g o a l i s t o c r e a t e a f u n c t i o n w h i c h w i l l s t a t e f o r a n y g i v e n h y p o t h e s i s a n d b o d y o f e v i d e n c e a q u a n t i t a t i v e , p r o b a b i l i s t i c c o e f f i c i e n t o f c o n f i r m a t i o n f o r t h a t h y p o t h e s i s o n t h e b a s i s o f t h a t b o d y o f e v i d e n c e . S h o u l d h e s u c -c e e d , t h e d e g r e e o f c o n f i r m a t i o n o f a h y p o t h e s i s w i l l b e a s c e r t a i n a b l e a s a p u r e l y l o g i c a l c o n s e q u e n c e o f t h e h y p o t h e s i s a n d e v i d e n c e i n q u e s -t i o n , a n d t h e r e f o r e w i l l s a t i s f y t h e t w i n d e d u c t i v e r e q u i r e m e n t s o f l o g i c a l i t y a n d c o n t e x t - i n v a r i a n c e . A t p r e s e n t , C a r n a p i s o n l y a b l e t o p r o d u c e s u c h a f u n c t i o n w i t h r e f e r e n c e t o r i g o r o u s l y f o r m a l i z e d m o d e l l a n g u a g e s w h o s e s t r u c t u r e i s f a r s i m p l e r t h a n t h a t r e q u i r e d f o r t h e p u r p o s e s o f s c i e n c e . W h e t h e r o r n o t h e w i l l b e a b l e t o g e n e r a l i z e t h i s f u n c t i o n i s a n o p e n q u e s t i o n . Some c r i t i c s c l a i m t h a t t h e t a s k i s i m -p o s s i b l e i n p r i n c i p l e , o t h e r s a s s e r t t h a t i t i s i m p o s s i b l e i n p r a c t i c e . ^ T h e a r g u m e n t s f o r a n d a g a i n s t a r e f a r t o o c o m p l i c a t e d t o g o i n t o h e r e . 77 S u f f i c e i t t o s a y t h a t t h e o b s t a c l e s a r e f o r m i d a b l e , a n d a c o m p l e t e s o l u t i o n t o t h i s c r u c i a l p r o b l e m w i l l c e r t a i n l y n o t a p p e a r i n t h e n e a r f u t u r e . I n l i g h t o f t h i s d i s c u s s i o n o f l o g i c a l c o n f i r m a t i o n , w e c a n c o n c l u d e , a l o n g w i t h H e m p e l , t h a t : T h e g r a d u a l e l i m i n a t i o n o f s o m e a m o n g t h e c o n c e i v a b l e a l t e r n a t i v e h y p o t h e s e s o r t h e o r i e s c a n n e v e r , i t i s t r u e , n a r r o w t h e f i e l d o f c o m p e t i t o r s t o t h e p o i n t w h e r e o n l y o n e o f t h e m i s l e f t ; h e n c e , w e c a n n e v e r e s t a b l i s h w i t h c e r t a i n t y t h a t a g i v e n t h e o r y i s t r u e , t h a t t h e e n t i t i e s i t p o s i t s a r e r e a l . B u t t o s a y t h i s i s n o t t o d i s c l o s e a p e c u l i a r f l a w i n o u r c l a i m s a b o u t t h e o r e t i c a l e n t i t i e s , b u t t o n o t e a p e r v a s i v e c h a r a c -t e r i s t i c o f a l l e m p i r i c a l k n o w l e d g e . 8 T h i s c o n c l u s i o n l e a d s t o o n e m o r e c r i t i c i s m o f t h e d e d u c t i v e a p p r o a c h p e r h a p s t h e m o s t t e l l i n g o f a l l . U p t o t h i s p o i n t , w e h a v e r e c o g n i z e d t w o p r i m a r y d e f e n s e s o f t h e c o n -c e p t i o n o f s c i e n c e a s d e d u c t i v e f o r m a l i s m . T h e f i r s t — r e p r e s e n t e d , f o r e x -a m p l e i n t h e q u o t e f r o m H e m p e l o n p a g e 5 0 a b o v e , i s t h a t t h e d e d u c t i v e a c -c o u n t s h o u l d b e a c c e p t e d b e c a u s e i t s h e d s l i g h t o n t h e " r a t i o n a l e a n d f o r c e o f e x p l a n a t o r y a c c o u n t s o f f e r e d i n d i f f e r e n t b r a n c h e s o f e m p i r i c a l s c i e n c e . " I n o u r e x a m i n a t i o n , h o w e v e r , w e h a v e n o t e d s e v e r a l p o i n t s w h e r e t h e d e d u c t -i v e r e c o n s t r u c t i o n d i v e r g e s c o n s i d e r a b l y f r o m a c t u a l s c i e n t i f i c p r a c t i c e . T h u s , t h i s d e f e n s e c a n n o t b e t a k e n a s d e c i s i v e . T h e s e c o n d d e f e n s e i s b y f a r t h e m o r e f u n d a m e n t a l . A s r e p r e s e n t e d i n t h e q u o t e f r o m B r o d b e c k o n p a g e 2 5 a b o v e , i t i s b a s e d o n t h e f a c t t h a t t h e d e d u c t i v e m o d e l s , a n d o n l y t h e d e d u c t i v e m o d e l s , g u a r a n t e e a c o n c l u s -i v e b o n d b e t w e e n p r e m i s e s a n d c o n s e q u e n t s . T h i s i s t a k e n t o i m p l y t h a t t h e y a l o n e c a n o f f e r t h e h o p e o f a c h i e v i n g t r u l y r e l i a b l e , o b j e c t i v e a n d c u m u l a t i v e k n o w l e d g e o f t h e e m p i r i c a l w o r l d . A s T h o m a s G r e e n e s t r e s s e s , t h e " p o s i t e d l i n k a g e s b e t w e e n e v e n t s o r d a t a m u s t b e d e d u c t i v e i n n a t u r e . " A n y o t h e r k i n d o f l i n k a g e w i l l n o t s a t i s f y t h o s e w h o p r e f e r l o g i c a l p r e c i s i o n t o w h a t t h e y m i g h t d e s c r i b e a s a c a s u a l d i s r e g a r d f o r t h e s t r i c t u r e s o f f o r m a l 1 4 9 m e t h o d o l o g y . " G i v e n t h i s v i e w , i t i s n o t d i f f i c u l t t o u n d e r s t a n d w h y 78 deductivists may come to regard a gap between the deductive i d e a l and p r a c t i c i n g science as a problem f o r s c i e n c e , not f o r deductivism. The present d i s c u s s i o n of l o g i c a l c o n f i r m a t i o n , however, throws t h i s whole l i n e of argument i n t o s e r i o u s doubt. I t appears t h a t , to the extent that the c o n f i r m a t i o n of hypotheses i s pragmatic, the " s t r i c t u r e s of formal methodology" are no more p r e c i s e or c e r t a i n than those of any other approach. At t h i s c r i t i c a l j u n c t u r e , then, the deductive c l a i m to c e r t a i n t y and o b j e c t i v i t y breaks down t o t a l l y . We can note only one important i m p l i c a t i o n of t h i s breakdown. I t f o l l o w s from the u n a v a i l a b i l i t y of complete l o g i c a l c o n f i r m a t i o n that the e m p i r i c a l requirement of ' . true laws i n the D-N model of ex-p l a n a t i o n cannot be f u l f i l l e d i n terms of the H-D model of t h e o r i e s . Because no laws can ever be a b s o l u t e l y confirmed, none can ever be ac-cepted as unquestionably true. Moreover, as Hempel and Oppenheim have pointed out, a true law cannot be replaced by a h i g h l y confirmed one i f the t a u t o l o g i c a l q u a l i t i e s of the model are to be maintained. As a r e s u l t , we are l e d to the c o n c l u s i o n that the D-N model i s a c t u a l l y not a model of true e x p l a n a t i o n a t a l l , but i n s t e a d a c o n t e x t u a l l y bound, contingent schema that i s l o g i c a l l y i n d i s t i n g u i s h a b l e from any other ap-proach. Thus, i t must be judged i n terms of the f i r s t defense of de-d u c t i v i s m alone, which, as we have seen, i s a questionable defense at best. I n c o n c l u s i o n , and before t u r n i n g to the r o l e played by deductive formalism i n p o l i t i c a l science and i n t e r n a t i o n a l p o l i t i c s , we can note the f o l l o w i n g passage from P a u l Feyerabend: ...the e n t e r p r i s e [or r e c o n s t r u c t i o n i s m ] soon got entangled w i t h i t s e l f . . . s o that the main i s s u e i s now i t s own s u r v i v a l and not the 79 s t r u c t u r e o f s c i e n c e . T h a t t h i s s t r u g g l e f o r s u r v i v a l i s i n t e r e s t i n g t o w a t c h I am t h e l a s t t o d e n y . W h a t I d o d e n y i s t h a t p h y s i c s , o r b i o l o g y , o r p s y c h o l o g y c a n p r o f i t f r o m p a r t i c -i p a t i n g i n i t . . . . T h i s c a n b e s h o w n b o t h t h e o r e t i c a l l y , b y a n a n a l y s i s o f s o m e r a t h e r g e n e r a l f e a t u r e s o f t h e p r e s e n t s t a t e o f t h e p r o g r a m o f r e c o n s t r u c t i o n , a n d p r a c t i c a l l y , b y e x h i b i t i n g t h e s o r r y s h a p e o f t h e s u b j e c t s ( s o c i o l o g y ; p o l i t i c a l s c i e n c e ) w h i c h h a v e made a v u l g a r i z e d v e r s i o n o f t h e p r o g r a m t h e i r c h i e f m e t h o d o l o g i c a l g u i d e . 1 5 0 I I I . A r g u m e n t s F a v o r i n g D e d u c t i v e F o r m a l i s m i n I n t e r n a t i o n a l P o l i t i c s a n d P o l i t i c a l S c i e n c e T h e b e s t p r o c e d u r e t o f o l l o w i n d i s c u s s i n g t h e r o l e o f d e d u c t i v e f o r m a l i s m i n i n t e r n a t i o n a l p o l i t i c s a n d p o l i t i c a l s c i e n c e , i t s e e m s t o m e , i s t o c o n s i d e r s e p a r a t e l y t h e c l a i m s t h a t h a v e b e e n m a d e i n i t s b e h a l f a n d t h e a t t e m p t s t h a t h a v e b e e n m a d e t o i m p l e m e n t i t . A c c o r d i n g l y , t h i s s e c t i o n w i l l e x a m i n e a r g u m e n t s c o n c e r n i n g w h y a n d h o w a d e d u c t i v e p r o g r a m s h o u l d b e d e v e l o p e d i n p o l i t i c a l s c i e n c e , w h i l e t h e n e x t s e c t i o n w i l l t a k e u p t h e p r o b l e m o f i m p l e m e n t a t i o n . I n c o n s i d e r i n g t h e s e d e f e n s e s o f d e d u c t i v e f o r m a l i s m , w e w i l l b e p a r t i c u l a r l y c o n c e r n e d w i t h n o t i n g h o w w e l l p o l i t i c a l s c i e n t i s t s u n d e r s t a n d t h e p h i l o s o p h i c a l m o d e l t h e y a r e a d v o c a t i n g . A . O r a n Y o u n g I n " T h e P e r i l s o f O d y s s e u s : O n C o n s t r u c t i n g T h e o r i e s i n I n t e r -n a t i o n a l R e l a t i o n s , " O r a n Y o u n g o b s e r v e s t h a t " C o n f u s i o n a n d m i s c o n c e p -t i o n s a b o u t t h e s t a t e a n d n a t u r e o f ' t h e o r y ' h a v e r e a c h e d m o n u m e n t a l p r o -p o r t i o n s i n t h e f i e l d o f i n t e r n a t i o n a l r e l a t i o n s . " 1 5 1 i n o r d e r t o ' c u t t h r o u g h s o m e o f t h i s c o n f u s i o n a n d t o s e t t h e p r o b l e m s o f c o n s t r u c t i n g 80 t h e o r i e s a b o u t i n t e r n a t i o n a l p h e n o m e n a i n p e r s p e c t i v e , " ' 1 " ' ' ' h e p r o p o s e s w h a t h e c o n s i d e r s t o b e a p r o p e r d e f i n i t i o n o f t h e o r y : A t h e o r y i s a s e t o f g e n e r a l s t a t e m e n t s s u c h t h a t ( 1 ) some o f t h e s t a t e m e n t s ( t h e a s s u m p t i o n s o r p r e m i s e s ) l o g i c a l l y i m p l y t h e o t h e r s ( t h e t h e o r e m s ) , a n d ( 2 ) t h e t h e o r e m s c a n b e c a s t i n t h e f o r m o f f a l s i f i a b l e p r e d i c t i v e s t a t e m e n t s a b o u t t h e r e a l w o r l d . 1 5 3 T h i s c o n c e p t i o n o f t h e o r y i s s i m i l a r i n f o r m t o t h e H-D m o d e l d i s -c u s s e d a b o v e , b u t i s m o r e s i m p l i s t i c i n t e r m s o f c o n t e n t i n t w o r e s p e c t s . F i r s t , i t s g o a l i s p r e d i c t i o n , n o t e x p l a n a t i o n . A s we h a v e s e e n , a n e x -p l a n a t o r y t h e o r y c a n o f t e n b e e m p l o y e d t o m a k e p r e d i c t i o n s , b u t t h e c o n -v e r s e i s m u c h l e s s o f t e n t r u e . Y o u n g ' s f a i l u r e t o r e c o g n i z e t h i s h a s a l r e a d y b e e n d i s c u s s e d . S e c o n d , Y o u n g h a s n o t d i f f e r e n t i a t e d b e t w e e n i n t e r n a l a n d b r i d g e p r i n c i p l e s , o r b e t w e e n t h e o r e t i c a l a n d p r e -t h e o r e t i c a l t e r m s . T h e H-D c o n c e p t i o n o f t h e o r y a c h i e v e s i t s s c o p e a n d b r e a d t h o n l y a s a r e s u l t o f t h e a b s t r a c t o r t h e o r e t i c a l n a t u r e o f i t s h i g h e s t l e v e l h y p o t h e s e s . W i t h o u t t h e s e t h e o r e t i c a l e l e m e n t s , a t h e o r y c a n n o t b e d i s t i n g u i s h e d f r o m a n e x p l a n a t i o n o r e v e n a n o n - e x p l a n a t o r y s e t o f d e d u c t i v e l y r e l a t e d e m p i r i c a l s t a t e m e n t s . T h u s , t h e s e t e r m s s h o u l d b e a n e x p l i c i t p a r t o f a n y d e f i n i t i o n o f a d e d u c t i v e t h e o r y . T u r n i n g f r o m t h e p r o b l e m o f w h a t c o n s t i t u t e s a t h e o r y t o t h e p r o b l e m o f how t h e o r i e s c a n b e c o n s t r u c t e d , Y o u n g n o t e s w h a t h e d e s c r i b e s a s t h e " c u r r e n t d i l e m m a " f a c i n g t h e f i e l d : I t i s n o t d i f f i c u l t t o c o n s t r u c t l o g i c a l l y w o r k a b l e m o d e l s t h a t h a v e some b e a r i n g o n i n t e r n a t i o n a l p h e n o m e n a , b u t n o o n e h a s y e t c o n s t r u c t e d m o d e l s o f t h i s t y p e t h a t y i e l d p r e d i c t i v e r e s u l t s w h i c h a r e a t a l l i m p r e s s i v e . O n t h e o t h e r h a n d , o n e c a n b e g i n b y w o r k i n g o u t r i c h e r d e s c r i p t i v e f r a m e w o r k s o r b y 8 1 s e a r c h i n g f o r e m p i r i c a l r e g u l a r i t i e s a b o u t i n t e r -n a t i o n a l p h e n o m e n a o n a n i n d u c t i v e b a s i s . H o w e v e r , s o f a r e f f o r t s a l o n g t h e s e l i n e s h a v e f a i l e d e n t i r e l y t o l e a d t o w a r d t h e p r e d i c t i v e a n d ( s o m e t i m e s ) m a n i p u l -a t i v e c a p a b i l i t i e s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h e d e v e l o p m e n t o f v i a b l e t h e o r i e s . 1 5 ^ T h e " d i l e m m a , " t h e n , i n v o l v e s t h e f a m i l i a r t e n s i o n b e t w e e n t h e d e m a n d s o f l o g i c a l f o r m a l i t y o n t h e o n e h a n d a n d e m p i r i c a l r e l e v a n c e o n t h e o t h e r t h a t w e e n c o u n t e r e d i n t h e p r e v i o u s s e c t i o n . W e c a n c o n s i d e r h e r e w h e t h e r H a n s o n ' s o b s e r v a t i o n c o n c e r n i n g a n i n v e r s e r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n t h e t w o ( p . 5 8 ) s e e m s t o h o l d w i t h r e f e r e n c e t o t h e s t u d y o f i n t e r n a -t i o n a l p h e n o m e n a . I n d e c i d i n g w h i c h o f t h e s e t h r e e a v a i l a b l e s t r a t e g i e s s h o u l d b e e m p l o y e d i n d e v e l o p i n g t h e o r i e s o f i n t e r n a t i o n a l r e l a t i o n s , Y o u n g a p p a r -e n t l y h o l d s t o t h e v i e w t h a t t h e s t r u c t u r e o f a t h e o r y s h o u l d b e r e f l e c t e d i n t h e m e t h o d b y w h i c h i t i s c o n s t r u c t e d . A c c o r d i n g l y , h e c o n c l u d e s t h a t " t h e r e i s a p o w e r f u l c a s e f o r e m p h a s i z i n g t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n o f s i m p l i f i e d l o g i c a l m o d e l s j L f o n e ' s p r i n c i p l e o b j e c t i v e i s t h e s e a r c h f o r v i a b l e t h e o r i e s o f i n t e r n a t i o n a l r e l a t i o n s . 1 , 1 5 5 H e l i s t s s e v e n r e a s o n s f o r t h i s c h o i c e ; t h e f i r s t f i v e d e a l i n g w i t h t h e p o s i t i v e a d v a n t a g e s o f s i m p l i f i e d l o g i c a l m o d e l s , t h e l a s t t w o n o t i n g w h a t h e c o n s i d e r s t h e f a t a l d i s a d v a n t a g e s o f t h e t w o a l t e r n a t i v e m e t h o d s . ^ 6 F i r s t , t h e u l t i m a t e a c h i e v e m e n t o f l o g i c a l c l o s u r e i s a l w a y s a n e c e s s a r y c o n d i t i o n f o r t h e d e v e l o p -m e n t o f v i a b l e t h e o r i e s . . . . S e c o n d , s i m p l i f i e d l o g i c a l m o d e l s s o m e t i m e s p l a y a n i m p o r t a n t r o l e i n r e v e a l i n g t h e f u n d a m e n t a l s t r u c t u r e o f a s e t o f c o m p l e x r e l a t i o n s h i p s e v e n w h e n t h e m o d e l s a r e n o t s u f f i c i e n t l y r e a l i s t i c t o y i e l d g o o d p r e d i c t i o n s . 82 T h i r d } . . .a workable l o g i c a l model[*s].. .cor-respondence w i t h the r e a l world can be improved by a d i s c i p l i n e d process of r e l a x i n g c e r t a i n assump-• t i o n s , i n t r o d u c i n g supplementary assumptions, and so f o r t h . Fourth, ...the very process of c r e a t i n g and manip-u l a t i n g simple l o g i c a l models generates a c r e a t i v e dynamic that g r a d u a l l y leads to the development of more s o p h i s t i c a t e d and r e a l i s t i c models. F i f t h , ...the e x p l a n a t i o n of some e m p i r i c a l regu-l a r i t i e s may i n v o l v e only a s m a l l number of f a c t o r s and...simple l o g i c a l models are more powerful than complex ones because they are more parsimonious. S i x , . . . p r o j e c t s that s t a r t out to maximize d e s c r i p t i v e accuracy w i l l seldom l e a d to the dev-elopment of v i a b l e theory. They w i l l o r d i n a r i l y produce l i s t s of p o t e n t i a l l y r e l e v a n t f a c t o r s which are l o g i c a l l y unmanageable. This i s the taxonomic f a l l a c y , and i t i s a l a r m i n g l y common among those who regard themselves as t h e o r i s t s of i n t e r n a t i o n a l r e l a t i o n s . Seventh, . . . h e a v i l y i n d u c t i v e work...becomes an enemy of theory...when p r a c t i t i o n e r s become too wrapped up i n the search f o r e m p i r i c a l r e g u l a r i t i e s . . . . They then f o r g e t that these a c t i v i t i e s can only serve the cause of developing t h e o r i e s when they are care-f u l l y r e l a t e d to the processes of c r e a t i n g l o g i c a l models and examining the accuracy of the p r e d i c t i o n s derived from such m o d e l s . 1 5 ^ These reasons seem to depend on two b a s i c assumptions, both of which hover j u s t above the surface of the argument. The f i r s t , of course, i s that the deductive conception of theory i s unquestionably c o r r e c t . The second i s that the d e s c r i p t i v e and i n d u c t i v e methods themselves are not n e c e s s a r i l y a n t i t h e t i c a l to theory c o n s t r u c t i o n , but that the t h e o r i s t s 158 who employ them are i n some way incapable of employing them c o r r e c t l y . Thus, the j u s t i f i c a t i o n f o r the f i r s t assumption i s a p r i o r i , the j u s t i -f i c a t i o n f o r the second i s ad hominem. These two assumptions c o n t r o l the course of the argument. 8 3 C o n s i d e r t h e f o l l o w i n g r e c o n s t r u c t i o n : W h e n Y o u n g f i r s t d e c i d e d t o a d d r e s s h i m s e l f t o t h e q u e s t i o n o f t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n t h e o r y a n d e m p i r i c a l r e a l i t y , h e h a d t w o p a t h s o p e n t o h i m . H e c o u l d e i t h e r a c c e p t t h e c o m p l e x i t y o f r e a l i t y a s g i v e n a n d c o n s i d e r d i f f e r e n t c o n c e p t i o n s o f t h e o r y t h a t m i g h t b e c o m p a t i b l e w i t h i t ( e s s e n t i a l l y t h e m e t h o d a d v o c a t e d i n t h e i n t r o d u c t i o n o f t h i s p a p e r ) , o r h e c o u l d d o w h a t h e d i d , w h i c h w a s t o a c c e p t o n e c o n c e p t i o n o f t h e o r y a s g i v e n a n d c o n s i d e r d i f f e r e n t w a y s o f m a k i n g r e a l i t y c o m p a t i b l e w i t h i t . U p o n c h o o s i n g t h e s e c o n d c o u r s e , h e d i s c o v e r e d , i n a g r e e m e n t w i t h H a n s o n ' s o b s e r v a t i o n , t h a t r e a l i t y c o u l d b e m o l d e d t o t h e o r y o n l y a t t h e l o s s o f c o n s i d e r a b l e e m p i r i c a l c o n t e n t . T h i s d i d n o t c a u s e h i m t o r e j e c t h i s c o n c e p t i o n o f t h e o r y , h o w e v e r , s i n c e h e a p p a r e n t l y c o u l d n o t ( o r w a s u n w i l l i n g t o ) c o n c e i v e o f a n y v i a b l e a l -t e r n a t i v e s . A s a r e s u l t , h e a c c e p t e d t h e n e c e s s i t y o f s a c r i f i c i n g t h e c o n t e n t . T h r e e o f h i s s e v e n r e a s o n s f o r m a k i n g t h i s s a c r i f i c e ( 3 , 4 , a n d 5 ) a r e m e r e l y v a g u e p r o m i s e s t o r e t r i e v e i t a t s o m e t i m e i n t h e f u t u r e . T h e s e p r o m i s e s , h o w e v e r , s t a n d i n s h a r p c o n t r a s t t o t h e s t a t e m e n t h e m a k e s t w i c e t h a t d e s c r i p t i v e r i c h n e s s a n d v i a b l e t h e o r y a r e e s s e n t i a l l y i n c o m -1 5 9 p a t i b l e . O f h i s r e m a i n i n g r e a s o n s , o n e ( 1 ) i s a r e a f f i r m a t i o n o f h i s f i r s t a s s u m p t i o n , t w o ( 6 a n d 7 ) a r e r e a f f i r m a t i o n s o f h i s s e c o n d a s s u m p -t i o n , a n d t h e r e m a i n i n g o n e ( 2 ) p o s i t s a w e a k ( " s o m e t i m e s " ) l i n k b e t w e e n u n d e f i n e d " f u n d a m e n t a l s t r u c t u r e s " a n d l o g i c a l m o d e l s . W e c a n t h u s c o n -c l u d e t h a t h i s r e a s o n s o n l y b e c o m e p l a u s i b l e i f h i s t w o b a s i c a s s u m p t i o n s a r e a c c e p t e d f i r s t . T h e i m p o r t a n c e o f Y o u n g ' s a r g u m e n t , b e s i d e s i t s l o g i c a l w e a k n e s s , 84 i s i t s f a i l u r e t o r e c o g n i z e a f u n d a m e n t a l t e n e t o f d e d u c t i v e f o r m a l i s m , n a m e l y , t h a t t h e m o d e l i s i n d i f f e r e n t t o t h e p r o b l e m s o f t h e o r y b u i l d -i n g . I n t e r m s o f t h e d e d u c t i v e a p p r o a c h , a n y m e t h o d — b u i l d i n g l o g i c a l m o d e l s , d e v e l o p i n g d e s c r i p t i v e t a x o n o m i e s , i n d u c t i v e l y , i n f e r r i n g e m p i r i c a l g e n e r a l i z a t i o n s — i s e q u a l l y j u s t i f i a b l e , s i n c e t h e r e a r e n o r u l e s t o d i f f e r e n t i a t e v a r i o u s m e t h o d o l o g i c a l p r o c e d u r e s . T o t h e e x t e n t t h a t Y o u n g ' s a r g u m e n t i s h e l d t o f o l l o w f r o m h i s d e d u c t i v e d e f i n i t i o n o f t h e o r y , t h e r e f o r e , h i s p r e f e r r e d m e t h o d i s p u r e l y a d h o c . A n d , a s w e h a v e s e e n , t h e o t h e r r e a s o n s h e g i v e s f o r c h o o s i n g t h i s m e t h o d a r e a l s o h i g h l y q u e s t i o n a b l e . I n o n e s e n s e , h o w e v e r , i t i s u n d e r s t a n d a b l e h o w Y o u n g ' s p r e f e r r e d m e t h o d c o u l d b e s e e n a s s o m e h o w i m p l i e d i n t h e d e d u c t i v e m o d e l . T h e e m p h a s i s o n t h e f o r m o f a t h e o r y a n d t h e s u b s e q u e n t v i e w t h a t e m p i r i c a l c o n t e n t i s " h o o k e d o n t o " t h e f o r m a l c a l c u l u s , c o u l d b e e a s i l y c o n s t r u e d a s i n d i c a t i n g t h a t , i n t h e c o n d u c t o f i n q u i r y , a f o r m a l m o d e l s h o u l d f i r s t b e d e v e l o p e d , a n d o n l y l a t e r b e g i v e n a n e m p i r i c a l r e f e r e n t . B u t t h i s v i e w i n v o l v e s c o n f u s i n g t h e l o g i c a l p r i o r i t i e s o f t h e r e c o n s t r u c t e d m o d e l , i n w h i c h t h e d i s t i n c t i o n i s a n a l y t i c a l , w i t h t h e t e m p o r a l p r i o r -1 6 0 i t i e s o f m e t h o d o l o g y , i n w h i c h t h e d i s t i n c t i o n i s p r a g m a t i c . O n c e a g a i n , i t i s i m p o r t a n t t o k e e p i n m i n d t h a t H - D t h e o r y i s a r e c o n s t r u c t e d m o d e l , o f s c i e n c e a s p r o d u c t , n o t p r o c e s s . B . M o r t o n K a p l a n S i n c e t h e m i d 1 9 5 0 s , M o r t o n K a p l a n h a s b e e n a p r o p o n e n t o f t h e p r i n c i p l e o f d e d u c t i o n w h i l e m a i n t a i n i n g a s k e p t i c a l a t t i t u d e t o w a r d i t s 85 attainment in international politics. In System and Process in Inter- national Politics, he observes that "international politics, and social science generally, is so poorly developed that the construction of a precise deductive system would be more constructive and misleading than enlightening, [and] at this stage of development, some ambiguity is a good t h i n g . H o w e v e r , in his introduction to the paperback edition of System and Process in 1967, he acknowledges that progress is being made: I then [1957] did not know how to construct a strictly deductive theory which would cover the variables essential to a meaningful and useful theory of international relations. Since that time,'we have been working with the materials of the theory and we are reaching the point where at least one portion of the theory — that con-cerned with the "balance-of-power" international^^ system — is being developed with greater rigor. Kaplan's view that deductive theory is the goal of scientific in-quiry stems from his study of the physical sciences, where it is more commonly achieved. In fact, he often begins his articles with a com-163 parison of the state of theory in physical and social science. These comparisons usually lead, however, to somewhat pessimistic con-clusions concerning the chances for deduction in social science; his above statement notwithstanding. Thus, in 1969, we find Kaplan con-cluding that "Deductive elegance, of the type obtained in physical 164 theory, is rarely if ever attained in the social sciences." It ap-pears, then, that in Kaplan's view deductive theory is the 'ideal'; seldom attained, but always pursued. This somewhat pessimistic outlook stands in sharp contrast to the more optimistic advocates of deductivism. 86 However, as the examination in the last section makes clear, even the quest for deductive rigor as an ideal can sometimes have stultifying effects on the course of research. C. Davis Bobrow Another less than completely enthusiastic supporter of deductive theory in international politics is Davis Bobrow. In an article ap-pearing in the same volume as Young's, Bobrow adopts a similar definition of theory. "By theory," he states, "we refer to a system of internally consistent statements which allow us to explain or predict deductively."1^-Like Young and Kaplan, he notes that this ideal is seldom attained. He is not, however, particularly concerned with this discrepancy, mainly because of his view that other products of international relations research are as valuable, or perhaps more valuable, than theory. "A catholic stance may be warranted if we regard theory construction as of a higher status than work directed toward other sorts of products. I do not so regard it and accordingly suggest a narrow and demanding formula-166 tion." Thus, Bobrow's conception of theory is essentially opportun-istic. It results more from a desire to make definite distinctions among different research products than it does from a careful consider-ation of the nature of either theory or deduction. D. David Easton No overview of pleas for deductive formalism in political science could ignore the extremely influential writings of David Easton. In The  Political System, Easton explicitly draws his conception of theory from physical science. Theory, "in its sophisticated state as found in physics 87 or economics, ... i s deductive," It begins with a few postulates of empirical refer-ence and from these deduces a series of narrower generalizations. From these i n turn stem singular generalizations capable of empirical proof. This is a theoretical system which serves as an analytical model of the concrete p o l i t i c a l system. It is con-ceivable that someday in the social sciences, such a framework might reach the stage of maturity asso-ciated with theory i n physics, for example.167 The only specific method he advocates for achieving this stage i n -volves systematizing the 'basic assumptions' of the discipline. "[0]ne cannot deny that behind a l l empirical research there are those basic as-sumptions with regard to the major variables i n the f i e l d and their relations and that one way of promoting the maturation of a discipline is to raise these assumptions to the point of consciousness for purposes 168 of careful examination." Unfortunately, no prescriptions are given concerning how this examination w i l l be able to differentiate between equally basic yet contradicting assumptions. Easton's conception of theory differs e x p l i c i t l y from the H-D model in the same way that Young's conception differs implicitly; i t holds that the highest level hypotheses of a theory are essentially empirical generalizations. But, as we have seen repeatedly, the most general postulates of a theory need not have "empirical reference," as Easton assumes. Indeed, i t is preferable that they do not, as Hempel makes clear when he remarks that " i f science were...to limit i t s e l f to the study of observable phenomena, i t would hardly be able to formulate any precise and general explanatory laws at a l l . . . . " " ^ 9 Thus, Easton's conception of theory exhibits an important misunderstanding of i t s 88 philosophical source. However, by 1965, Easton could refer to a "revolution i n p o l i t i c a l theory," apparently aiming in the direction, of just this model of general theory: ...given the very short time that the behavioral approach has been persuasive i n p o l i t i c a l research, i t may come as a pleasant surprise to discover that there are a respectable number of alternative conceptual approaches for the study of p o l i t i c a l l i f e or some of i t s major segments. Not that these conceptual structures are f u l l y developed or close to any ideal form. They do, however, constitute a beginning and a promise for the future. 1^ 0 This revolution, then, appears to be more one of intent than actual ac-complishment. It also seems to be more problematic for the development of a general deductive theory than Easton appears to recognize. Once again, inconsistencies between the different approaches are underplayed, and the problems involved i n synthesizing them into a general framework are not confronted. E. William Riker Like Easton, William Riker bases his advocacy of a deductive ap-proach on the successes of physical science: What social scientists have so greatly admired about the physical sciences is the fact that these latter actually measure up to our notion of what science should be. That i s , they consist of a body of r e l -ated and verified generalizations which describe occurrences accurately enough to be used for predic-tion. Generalizations within each science are r e l - ated because they are deduced from one set of axioms, which, though revised from time to time, are never-theless a coherent theoretical model of motion.!72 He concludes that a science of p o l i t i c s must strive for the same structure. 8 9 B y 1 9 7 3 , w e f i n d h i m c l a i m i n g t h a t " P o l i t i c a l s c i e n c e . . . i s b e g i n n i n g t o p r o l i f e r a t e n e w t h e o r i e s , n e w b a s e s o f e m p i r i c a l i n v e s t i g a t i o n , a n d n e w f o r m s o f o r g a n i z a t i o n o f k n o w l e d g e . I t i s e v e n b e g i n n i n g t o b e d e d u c t -. , , 1 7 3 l v e i n m e t h o d . R i k e r ' s v i e w o f d e d u c t i v e t h e o r y a s o u t l i n e d i n t h e s e p a s s a g e s e x -h i b i t s t w o i m p o r t a n t e r r o r s . F i r s t , l i k e Y o u n g a n d B o b r o w , h e c o n s i d e r s s c i e n c e t o b e a p r e d i c t i v e t a t h e r t h a n e x p l a n a t o r y e n t e r p r i s e . S e c o n d , h e m i s t a k e n l y a s s u m e s t h a t t h e i n d i v i d u a l p h y s i c a l s c i e n c e s e a c h f o l l o w f r o m o n e s e t o f . a x i o m s . T h i s a s s u m p t i o n i s s i m p l y i n c o r r e c t . E a c h p h y s i c a l s c i e n c e i s i n r e a l i t y a c o n g l o m e r a t i o n o f a g r e a t v a r i e t y o f t h e o r i e s , m a n y o f w h i c h a r e f o u n d e d o n c o m p l e t e l y d i f f e r e n t , e v e n c o n -t r a d i c t o r y a s s u m p t i o n s . T o a s s u m e a n o n - e x i s t e n t g e n e r a l t h e o r y i n p h y s i c a l s c i e n c e , t h e r e f o r e , i s t o f a l s e l y j u s t i f y t h e q u e s t f o r g e n e r a l 1 7 4 t h e o r y i n p o l i t i c a l s c i e n c e . W e w i l l b e c o n s i d e r i n g R i k e r ' s w o r k , a n d e s p e c i a l l y h i s f o r m u l a t i o n o f a d e d u c t i v e t h e o r y o f p o l i t i c a l c o a l i t i o n s , m o r e f u l l y i n t h e n e x t s e c t i o n . F . R o b e r t H o l t e t a l . T h e f i e l d o f c o m p a r a t i v e p o l i t i c s c l a i m s a s t r o n g c o n t i n g e n t o f d e d u c t i v e l y - o r i e n t e d s c h o l a r s . R o b e r t H o l t a n d h i s a s s o c i a t e s t a k e a p o s i t i o n o f t h e f o r m a n d c o n s t r u c t i o n o f t h e o r i e s t h a t i s n e a r l y i d e n t i c a l t o Y o u n g ' s . T h u s , H o l t a n d J o h n R i c h a r d s o n , J r . d e f i n e t h e o r y a s " a d e d u c t i v e l y c o n n e c t e d s e t o f p r o p o s i t i o n s , w h i c h a r e , d e p e n d i n g o n t h e i r l o g i c a l p o s i t i o n w i t h r e s p e c t t o o n e a n o t h e r , e i t h e r a x i o m s o r 1 7 5 t h e o r e m s . " S i m i l a r l y , H o l t a n d J o h n T u r n e r p o s i t a l i n k b e t w e e n 90 t h e o r y and r e s e a r c h t h a t a l s o r e s e m b l e s t h a t p u t f o r t h by Young. W i t h r e f e r e n c e t o the s o u r c e o f h y p o t h e s e s , t h e y remark t h a t " I d e a l l y , s c i -e n t i f i c r e s e a r c h I n i t s s i m p l e s t f o r m i n v o l v e s , f i r s t , t h e d e d u c t i o n o f a h y p o t h e s i s from a s e t o f t h e o r e t i c a l p r o p o s i t i o n s , and s e c o n d , i n -v e s t i g a t i o n s to d e t e r m i n e whether t h e f a c t s o f r e l a t i o n s h i p s p r e d i c t e d by t h e h y p o t h e s i s m a n i f e s t t h e m s e l v e s e m p i r i c a l l y . " ^ " ^ They a r e q u i c k to p o i n t o u t , however, t h a t " L i t t l e r e s e a r c h i n p o l i t i c a l s c i e n c e . . . f o l -lows t h i s i d e a l . " The m a j o r r e a s o n i s o b v i o u s . . . .The t h e o r e t i c a l s t r u c t u r e o f p o l i t i c a l s c i e n c e i s n o t d e d u c t i v e l y p o w e r f u l , and hence t h e r i g o r o u s d e d u c t i o n o f hypo-t h e s e s i s , w i t h few e x c e p t i o n s , i m p o s s i b l e . Most h y p o t h e s e s t h a t a r e t e s t e d by p o l i t i c a l s c i e n t i s t s a r e e i t h e r t h e l o o s e i m p l i c a t i o n s o f a r a t h e r amor-phous t h e o r y o r a r e t h e r e s e a r c h e r s ' hunches about a r e a s o n a b l e outcome of e m p i r i c a l r e s e a r c h . I t i s p e r p l e x i n g t h a t H o l t and T u r n e r s h o u l d demand s u c h s t r i c t r e q u i r e m e n t s f o r t h e f o r m u l a t i o n , as opposed t o t h e t e s t i n g , o f hypo-t h e s e s . C e r t a i n l y no p o s i t i o n i n p h i l o s o p h y o f s c i e n c e , d e d u c t i v i s m i n c l u d e d , a d v o c a t e s t h i s ' i d e a l ' o f s c i e n t i f i c r e s e a r c h . We can o n l y c o n c l u d e t h a t t h e y have somehow managed t o c o n f u s e , l i k e Young, the r u l e s o f H-D t h e o r y t e s t i n g w i t h t h e p r o c e s s e s o f h y p o t h e s i s c r e a t i o n . The s o u r c e s o f h y p o t h e s e s , c o n t r a r y to H o l t and T u r n e r , a r e i r r e l e v a n t t o t e s t i n g . W i t h r e f e r e n c e t o t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n o f t h e o r i e s , H o l t and T u r n e r w o u l d p r o b a b l y approve o f Young's p r e f e r r e d method o f b u i l d i n g s i m p l e l o g i c a l models. H o l t and R i c h a r d s o n ' s p r e f e r r e d method a l s o i n v o l v e s s t a r t i n g f r o m s c r a t c h i n o r d e r to a c h i e v e adequate d e d u c t i v e t h e o r y : 9 1 T h e g r a n d p a r a d i g m s o f A l m o n d , D e u t s c h , E a s t o n ( a r d f o r t h a t m a t t e r , H o l t a n d T u r n e r ) a r e l i t t l e m o r e t h a n h e u r i s t i c s c h e m a . T h e y p r e s e n t a n i n t e r -e s t i n g w a y o f l o o k i n g a t p o l i t i c a l p h e n o m e n a , b u t d o l i t t l e m o r e . W h a t i s n e e d e d i s c l e a r . F i r s t , a s m a l l g r o u p o f t h e o r e t i c a l p r i m i t i v e s m u s t b e e s t a -b l i s h e d . S e c o n d , a d d i t i o n a l c o n c e p t s m u s t b e d e f i n e d u s i n g o n l y t h e s e t h e o r e t i c a l p r i m i t i v e s a n d s o m e s p e -c i f i c a l l y i d e n t i f i e d l o g i c a l ( o r m a t h e m a t i c a l ) o p e r a t i o n s . T h i r d , a s e t o f a x i o m s m u s t b e d e v e l o p e d u s i n g o n l y t h e c o n c e p t s a n d o p e r a t i o n s d e f i n e d . F o u r t h , a s e t o f p r o p o s i t i o n s m u s t b e d e d u c e d f r o m t h e s e a x i o m s f o r e m p i r i c a l t e s t i n g . F i f t h , c r i t e r i a o f a d m i s s i b i l i t y a n d r u l e s o f i n t e r p r e t a t i o n m u s t b e d e v e l o p e d . H e r e a g a i n , a n a n a l y t i c a l d i s t i n c t i o n i s m i s t a k e n l y a s s u m e d t o i m p l y a t e m p o r a l m e t h o d o l o g i c a l p r e s c r i p t i o n . O n t h e o t h e r h a n d , H o l t a n d R i c h a r d s o n h a v e a t l e a s t n o t i c e d t h a t h i g h e s t l e v e l h y p o t h e s e s m u s t b e t h e o r e t i c a l i n n a t u r e . I n t h i s r e s p e c t , t h e i r r e a d i n g o f t h e d e -d u c t i v e a p p r o a c h s e e m s t o b e s o u n d . H o l t a n d R i c h a r d s o n g o f u r t h e r t h a n Y o u n g i n c o n s i d e r i n g t h e k i n d s o f p r e r e q u i s i t e s t h a t w o u l d b e n e c e s s a r y i f c o m p a r a t i v e p o l i t i c s , o r p o -l i t i c a l s c i e n c e , w e r e t o d e v e l o p a s d e s c r i b e d h e r e . I n p a r t i c u l a r , t h e y n o t e t h e n e e d f o r m o r e r i g o r o u s t r a i n i n g i n m a t h e m a t i c s : N o n e o f t h e s e s t e p s e x c e p t t h e f i r s t c a n b e t a k e n s a t i s f a c t o r i l y w i t h o u t t h e u s e o f s o m e b o d y o f r u l e s t h a t e s t a b l i s h t h e p r i n c i p l e s f o r d e d u c t i o n . O u r s u g -g e s t i o n i s t h a t p o l i t i c a l s c i e n t i s t s m u s t t u r n t o m a t h e m a t i c s f o r t h e s e r u l e s o f l o g i c a n d t h a t u n t i l t h i s i s d o n e , t h e g r a n d s c h e m a t a w i l l r e m a i n e s s e n t i a l l y h e u r i s t i c . . . . [ W ] e c a n s e e n o o t h e r w a y t o i n t r o d u c e t h e n e c e s s a r y d e d u c t i v e p o w e r i n t o a p a r a d i g m . 1 7 9 . T h i s a p p e a l t o m a t h e m a t i c s d o e s n o t a d d r e s s i t s e l f d i r e c t l y t o t h e q u e s t i o n o f t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p o f l o g i c a l r i g o r a n d t h e e m p i r i c a l c o m p l e x -i t y o f s o c i a l p h e n o m e n a , h o w e v e r . O n t h i s p o i n t , H o l t a n d R i c h a r d s o n d o 92 mention that new breakthroughs in mathematics may be necessary in order 180 to accommodate the needs of deductive social sciences. But their primary means of dealing with this issue seems to be to drastically*de-limit what counts as a 'problem' in political science: A science that is heavily committed to dealing with socially and morally relevant problems finds little use for this kind of paradigm or for the commitment to mathematics that it requires. For political sci-ence to advance, i t must shed this professional g^^  commitment to solving social and moral problems. This controversial solution certainly would limit the number of poli-tical problems; and those that remain might even prove to be more amen-able to deductive procedures. It is difficult to imagine, however, why 182 anyone would be interested in studying them. The particular value of Holt and Richardson's example is that i t shows more explicitly than most the kinds of sacrifices that might be necessary in order to bring tog-ether deductive theory and empirical reality. G. A. James Gregor One advocate of deductive formalism whose knowledge of its philo-sophical foundations seems more thorough than most is A.J. Gregor, He describes political science as a "partially formalized science." Its proper goal is to become "fully formalized." One attribute of a form-alized science is formal theory, which Gregor defines more carefully than any of the above scholars: A theory, in a substantially formalized system, includes as constituents (1) an uninterpreted or formal calculus which provides for syntactical invariance in the system, (2) a set of semantic rules of interpretation which assign some deter-minate empirical meanings to the formal calculus thereby relating it to an evidential or empirical 93 base, and (3) a model of the uninterpreted calculus, in terms of more or less familiar conceptual or visualizable materials . . . . x o We can recognize this conception of theory as an almost verbatim account of jthat given in Nagel's The Structure of Science. Since Gregor's article was written in 1968, we cannot expect him to have been aware of Hempel's critique of this conception, which did not appear until 1970. Thus, so far, Gregor's view of theory is only susceptible to the cri t i -cisms put forth in the previous section, but not to the added criticism that it fails to grasp the full deductive model of theory. Another benefit of Gregor's analysis is that he is explicit about why formal theory is necessary: ...formalization seeks to satisfy the minimal require-ments of any serious knowledge enterprise: to provide for syntactical and semantic invariance without which reliable knowledge is simply not ,conceivable. ...Se-mantic and syntactical invariance afford the minimal necessary conditions for drawing out the testable im-plications of any set of empirical propositions, for identifying the locus in which false propositions are located when a hypothesis fails to meet empirical test, for coordinating research in order that separate findings support each other, for isolating the most strategic propositions for testing, and in order to provide the most parsimonious summary of actual or anticipated research efforts. 1^ Thus, in Gregor's view, "the requisite semantic and syntactic precision... are the minimal responsibilities implied in David Easton's injunction that the science of politics, in its effort at theory construction, at-tempt to meet the methodological requirements characteristic of the natural sciences."^^^ The problems with this formulation are two: First, there are no set "methodological requirements characteristic of the natural 94 s c i e n c e s . " A s P a u l F e y e r a b e n d p u t s i t : T h e i d e a o f a m e t h o d t h a t c o n t a i n s f i r m , u n -c h a n g i n g , a n d a b s o l u t e l y b i n d i n g p r i n c i p l e s f o r c o n d u c t i n g t h e b u s i n e s s o f s c i e n c e g e t s i n t o c o n s i d e r a b l e d i f f i c u l t y w h e n c o n f r o n t e d w i t h t h e r e s u l t s o f h i s t o r i c a l r e s e a r c h . We f i n d , t h e n , t h a t t h e r e i s n o t a s i n g l e r u l e , h o w e v e r p l a u s i b l e a n d h o w e v e r f i r m l y g r o u n d e d i n e p i s t e m o l o g y , t h a t i s n o t v i o l a t e d a t s o m e t i m e o r o t h e r . S e c o n d , e v e n i f t h e r e w e r e s u c h r e q u i r e m e n t s , s y n t a c t i c a l a n d s e m a n t i c i n v a r i a n c e w o u l d n o t b e among t h e p r o p e r t i e s t h a t w o u l d i d e n t i f y t h e m . B o t h , a s w e h a v e s e e n a b o v e , g o o u t t h e w i n d o w w i t h t h e f o r m a l i s m - i n -t e r p r e t a t i o n d i s t i n c t i o n . S y n t a c t i c a l i n v a r i a n c e r e s t s o n t h e u n t e n a b l e a n a l y t i c - s y n t h e t i c d i c h o t o m y , w h i l e s e m a n t i c i n v a r i a n c e b r e a k s d o w n i n t h e f a c e o f t h e f a i l u r e t o a c h i e v e a b s o l u t e c o n f i r m a t i o n . G r e g o r ' s a p p r o a c h a p p e a r s t o b e m o r e a k i n t o H o l t a n d R i c h a r d s o n ' s t h a n t o a n y o f t h e o t h e r s c h o l a r s d i s c u s s e d h e r e . L i k e t h e m , h e h o l d s t h a t m o s t p r e s e n t a t t e m p t s t o b e ' s c i e n t i f i c ' a r e a b o r t i v e . H e i s e s -p e c i a l l y h o s t i l e t o f u n c t i o n a l a n d s y s t e m s a p p r o a c h e s , w h i c h h e f e e l s a r e " a l l t o o f r e q u e n t l y p a r a s i t i c u p o n s u g g e s t i v e a n a l o g y a n d m e t a p h o r , 1 8 7 t r a f f i c k i n g o n o u r f a m i l i a r i t y w i t h g o a l d i r e c t e d s y s t e m s . " I n l i g h t o f t h e s e f a i l i n g s , h e a d v o c a t e s t h a t p o l i t i c a l s c i e n c e n e v e r b o r r o w c o n c e p t s f r o m o t h e r p a r t i a l l y f o r m a l i z e d s c i e n c e s . T o d o s o , h e w a r n s , " i n v o l v e s c o n s i d e r a b l e r i s k . " T h e d i s p o s i t i o n o n t h e p a r t o f s o m e p o l i t i c a l s c i e n t i s t s t o b e u n c r i t i c a l l y a c c o m m o d a t i n g t o s u c h b o r r o w i n g t h r e a t e n s t o b u r d e n p o l i t i c a l s c i e n c e a s a k n o w l e d g e e n t e r p r i s e w i t h a n i n -v e n t o r y o f v a g u e a n d a m b i g u o u s c o n c e p t s l i t t l e c a l c u l a t e d t o f u r t h e r t h e e f f o r t t o e x p l a i n a n d p r e d i c t . ^ 8 9 5 O n t h e o t h e r h a n d , a l s o l i k e H o l t a n d R i c h a r d s o n , h e c o n c l u d e s t h a t p o l i t i c a l s c i e n c e m u s t t u r n t o w a r d p h y s i c a l s c i e n c e a n d m a t h e m a t i c s f o r g u i d a n c e . " T h e a d o p t i o n o f c o n c e p t s f r o m a f o r m a l i z e d e m p i r i c a l o r n o n -e m p i r i c a l d i s c i p l i n e e n t a i l s m i n i m u m h a z a r d s i n c e t h e i m p l i c a t i o n s o f s u c h 1 8 9 a s s i m i l a t i o n a r e m a x i m a l l y s p e c i f i e d . " B u t h e h a s n o t h i n g t o s a y a b o u t h o w t h i s a s s i m i l a t i o n i s t o b e a c h i e v e d , n o r d o e s h e r e v e a l w h a t c o n c e p t s s h o u l d b e b o r r o w e d o r w h y . A s a r e s u l t , we a r e i n f o r m e d a s t o w h y we s h o u l d w a n t t o b e c o m e f o r m a l i z e d , b u t a r e l e f t i n t h e d a r k c o n -c e r n i n g h o w . T h i s l i s t o f e x a m p l e s c o u l d b e l e n g t h e n e d w i t h o u t m u c h d i f f i c u l t y , b u t I t h i n k t h e a b o v e a u t h o r s a r e r e p r e s e n t a t i v e o f m o s t o f t h e a p -p r o a c h e s t h a t h a v e b e e n t a k e n . A n i m p o r t a n t a r e a w e h a v e n o t t o u c h e d u p o n , b u t w h i c h d e s e r v e s c a r e f u l a t t e n t i o n , i s t h e c o n c e p t i o n o f s c i e n c e p o r t r a y e d i n t h e v a r i o u s " s c o p e a n d m e t h o d s " t e x t b o o k s i n p o l i t i c a l s c i -e n c e . M a n y , s u c h a s G e o r g e G r a h a m ' s M e t h o d o l o g i c a l F o u n d a t i o n s f o r 1 9 0 P o l i t i c a l A n a l y s i s , t a k e a n a l m o s t p u r e l y d e d u c t i v e a p p r o a c h w i t h l i t t l e m e n t i o n o f a l t e r n a t i v e p o s s i b i l i t i e s . O t h e r s , l i k e M e e h a n ' s T h e  T h e o r y a n d M e t h o d o f P o l i t i c a l A n a l y s i s , p o i n t o u t t h e d i f f i c u l t i e s i n -v o l v e d I n a t t a i n i n g d e d u c t i v e t h e o r i e s a n d e x p l a n a t i o n s , b u t i n t e r p r e t 1 9 1 t h i s a s a n i n d i c a t i o n o f t h e i n f e r i o r i t y o f p o l i t i c a l s c i e n c e . N o n e t h a t I h a v e come a c r o s s c r i t i c a l l y e x a m i n e e i t h e r t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p o f p h y s i c a l s c i e n c e a n d s o c i a l s c i e n c e o r t h e c r i t i c i s m s o f t h e d e d u c t i v e a p -p r o a c h — e v e n a s a n i d e a l o f s c i e n c e — t h a t a r e t h e s u b j e c t o f t h i s t h e s i s . G i v e n t h a t many g r a d u a t e s t u d e n t s a r e i n t r o d u c e d t o t h e s e i s s u e s 96 only through such textbooks, this narrowness of focus does not speak well for the education of methodologically well-rounded flexible political 192 scientists. In conclusion, we can note that Gunnell s charge concern-ing political scientists' poor grasp of the philosophical model of de-ductive formalism seems to be upheld, at least with reference to the small sample we have discussed here. Most of these scholars seem to emphasize only those aspects of the model which they find compatible with their own interests, and discard or ignore the rest. Thus, for ex-ample, most of these arguments are characterized by a great concern with form at the expense of content. Only Holt and Richardson and Gregor mention the problem of interpretation, and their handling of i t is ina-dequate. Perhaps more disturbing, however, is the nonchalance with which all these political scientists approach the possibility of drastically cutting back what they are willing to define as "political" in order to satisfy the formal requirements of their preconceived notions of theory. We shall see in the next section that this tendency is even more pronounced when attempts are made to actually implement deductive theories of international phenomena. IV. Applications of Deductive Formalism in International Politics Several attempts have been made in the study of international po-litics to develop deductive theories along the lines sketched out in Section II. None has been considered fully satisfactory either by their creators or their critics, but al l have been praised at one time or another as important "first steps" in the direction of viable theory. Interestingly enough, the same cannot be said for the development of 97 deductive explanations. To my knowledge there have not been any attempts to produce strictly deductive explanations in the study of international politics or political science that resemble those advocated by Hempel and Oppenhein et al. Some reasons for this will be considered further on, but since these reasons are somewhat dependent upon some of the charac-teristics of the deductive theories that have been put forth, we should turn to these first. A. Deductive ^Theories 1. Reaction Equations and Arms Race Models One area of international politics that has proven conducive to the construction of formal theories is the study of arms races. Building upon the foundations laid down by Lewis F. Richardson, scholars such as Smoker, Caspery, Wolfson, Milstein and Mitchell, and others have attempted to develop mathematical models that effectively mirror the dynamics of 193 competitive military spending. These models are not strictly de-ductive in that the variables they deal with are related to each other through mathematical functions rather than deductive syllogisms. But such theories, which we might call systematic in order to distinguish them from pure deductive theories, can easily be converted to de-ductive form. In general, these arms race models bear a strong resemblance to the simplified logical models described above by Young. They involve a high degree of abstraction, usually being based upon simple stimulus-response or "reaction-process" assumptions. Thus, for example, they pay little or no attention to internal decision-making processes or other 98 i n t e r n a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f n a t i o n s . A s a r e s u l t t h e y f a r e r a t h e r p o o r l y i n a t t e m p t i n g t o b r i n g t o g e t h e r l o g i c a l l y t i g h t t h e o r e t i c a l s t r u c t u r e s a n d e m p i r i c a l r e l e v a n c e . I n a r e c e n t e x a m i n a t i o n a n d c r i t i q u e o f t h e a r m s r a c e l i t e r a t u r e , P e t e r B u s h m a k e s t h e f o l l o w i n g o b s e r v a t i o n s : F i r s t , q u a n t i t a t i v e m o d e l s o f a r m s r a c e s c a n n o t b e t e s t e d w i t h a n y t h i n g a p p r o a c h i n g d e s i r a b l e r i g o r . S e c o n d l y , t h i s a n a l y t i c a l a p p r o a c h i s n o t now i n a p o s i t i o n t o o f f e r a c c u r a t e , q u a n t i t a t i v e p r e d i c t i o n s o f m i l i t a r y s p e n d i n g . - ^ 4 B u s c h c i t e s t w o b a s i c r e a s o n s f o r t h e s e d e f i c i e n c i e s ; p o o r d a t a a n d i n a d e q u a t e t h e o r y . T h e d a t a p r o b l e m i s a d o u b l e o n e . F i r s t t h e d a t a i s o f t e n u n r e l i a b l e . T h e r e a r e g o o d r e a s o n s t o b e l i e v e , f o r e x -a m p l e , t h a t t h e S o v i e t s a n d C h i n e s e h a v e o f t e n m a n i p u l a t e d t h e i r r e p o r t e d m i l i t a r y e x p e n d i t u r e s f o r v a r i o u s r e a s o n s o v e r t h e l a s t 30 y e a r s . I n a d d i t i o n , e v e n i f t h e f i g u r e s w e r e d e p e n d a b l e , t h e s m a l l q u a n t i t y o f a v a i l a b l e d a t a p o i n t s g r e a t l y l i m i t s t h e u s e o f s t a t i s t i c a l m e a s u r e s a s w e l l a s t h e e f f i c a c y o f t h e m o d e l s t h e m s e l v e s . M o d e l s a r e o n l y a d e q u a t e a s l o n g a s t h e d y n a m i c s t h e y d e s c r i b e r e m a i n o p e r a t i v e . S y s t e m b r e a k -downs o r r e o r g a n i z a t i o n s , s u c h a s t h o s e w h i c h f o l l o w e d t h e l a s t two w o r l d w a r s , s e t new d y n a m i c s , o f t e n i n v o l v i n g new a c t o r s , i n t o m o t i o n . T h u s , n e w m o d e l s b e c o m e n e c e s s a r y . I n t h e r e c e n t p a s t , t h e l o n g e s t p e r i o d o f r e l a t i v e s t a b i l i t y w a s b e t w e e n 1 8 7 0 a n d 1 9 1 4 . N o t s u r p r i s -i n g l y , many a r m s r a c e a n d c o n f l i c t e s c a l a t i o n s t u d i e s f o c u s o n t h i s 1 9 5 p e r i o d . S i n c e t h a t t i m e , t h e i n t e r w a r a n d p o s t - W W I I p e r i o d s h a v e o n l y l a s t e d 2 2 a n d 29 y e a r s r e s p e c t i v e l y ( s o f a r ) . T h i s i s p r o b a b l y t h e m a j o r o b s t a c l e t o e f f e c t i v e t e s t i n g o f a r m s r a c e m o d e l s . I n t e r m s o f t h e o r e t i c a l d i f f i c u l t i e s , B u s c h ' s c o n c l u s i o n i s s u c c i n t . 99 " I t i s not only the case that the important variables cannot be measured • we do not r e a l l y know which variables are important!""''^ Consequently, d i f f e r e n t models emphasize d i f f e r e n t types of v a r i a b l e s . But the paucity of data precludes a d e f i n i t i v e judgement as to which models are more adequate, and thus brings to a s t a n d s t i l l the process of cumulative cor-1 9 7 r e c t i o n of errors and t h e o r e t i c a l improvement. What then i s the use of mathematical models of arms race? In Busch's view, the empirical and t h e o r e t i c a l f a i l i n g s of the approach do not completely negate i t s value. He holds that i t also serves an impor-tant h e u r i s t i c function: The contribution to be expected — indeed demanded — from such models i t that they organ-i z e and c l a r i f y the verbal concepts and theories which have been used to describe arms races and that they explicate the often unsuspected i m p l i -cations of our commonly used theories. The f u l -f i l l m e n t of these c r i t e r i a requires, that every term i n the various equations have a meaningful p o l i t i c a l d e f i n i t i o n . Equally important, every s p e c i f i e d f u n c t i o n a l r e l a t i o n s h i p must be p o l i -t i c a l l y p l a u s i b l e . F i n a l l y , the mathematical implications of the equations must correspond with r e a l i t y . 1 9 8 In l i g h t of these c r i t e r i a , i t appears that arms race models i n t h e i r present form are more akin to taxonomies than f u l l - f l e d g e d H-D theories, i n s p i t e of the f a c t that they p o s i t strong deductive i n t e r -connections between v a r i a b l e s . As we have seen, such interconnections are a necessary, but not s u f f i c i e n t condition f o r a complete H-D theory. To t r a n s l a t e Busch's c r i t i q u e into the terminology introduced i n s e c t i o n I I , arms race models are inadequate i n terms of bridge p r i n c i p l e s and empirical reference, and are untestable through e i t h e r v e r i f i c a t i o n 1 0 0 o r f a l s i f i c a t i o n * I t a l s o f o l l o w s f r o m t h i s t h a t t h e ' l a w s ' o f a r m s r a c e m o d e l s — e . g . , R i c h a r d s o n ' s r e a c t i o n e q u a t i o n s — a r e n o t t h e o r e t i c a l l y s u b s t a n t i a t e d . T h u s , t h e m o d e l s f a i l t o m e e t a t l e a s t t h r e e m i n i m a l r e -q u i r e m e n t s o f H - D t h e o r y . 2 . G a m e T h e o r y a n d D e t e r r e n c e S t u d i e s A s e c o n d a r e a o f i n t e r n a t i o n a l p o l i t i c s t o w h i c h d e d u c t i v e m o d e l s h a v e b e e n a p p l i e d i s t h e s t u d y o f d e t e r r e n c e s t r a t e g y . H e r e g a m e t h e o r y h a s b e e n t h e c h i e f m e a n s o f f o r m a l i z a t i o n . I n g e n e r a l , g a m e t h e o r e t i c m o d e l s d e a l w i t h t h e p r o b l e m s o f r a t i o n a l c h o i c e i n s i t u a t i o n s i n v o l v i n g i n t e r d e p e n d e n t . d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g , o r s t r a t e g i c i n t e r a c t i o n s a m o n g p u r p o s -1 9 9 i v e a c t o r s . T h u s , t h e i r a p p l i c a b i l i t y t o p r o b l e m s o f d e t e r r e n c e s e e m s a p p a r e n t . H o w e v e r , t h e i r p e r f o r m a n c e i n t h i s c a p a c i t y h a s b e e n . 2 0 0 s o m e w h a t p r o b l e m a t x c . R i c h a r d S m o k e n o t e s t h a t a b s t r a c t , d e d u c t i v e m o d e l s w e r e o r i g i n a l l y u s e d t o s t u d y p r o b l e m s i n v o l v i n g t h e d e t e r r e n c e o f t h e r m o n u c l e a r w a r ; a s i t u a t i o n w h i c h , f o r t u n a t e l y , h a s n e v e r h a d a n e m p i r i c a l r e f e r e n t . T h u s , s u c h m o d e l s w e r e p a r t i c u l a r l y v a l u a b l e . B u t t h e y h a v e s i n c e b e e n a p p l i e d t o t h e s t u d y o f l e s s c a t a s t r o p h i c , b u t m o r e c o m p l i c a t e d c a s e s s u c h a s d e t e r r e n c e o f l i m i t e d w a r s a n d c r i s e s , f o r w h i c h m u c h e m p i r i c a l d a t a i s a v a i l a b l e , a n d f o r w h i c h t h e g a m e t h e o r e t i c m o d e l s h a v e e x h i b i t e d l e s s r e l e v a n c e . I n t h e s e c a s e s , g a m e t h e o r y , m u c h l i k e r e a c t i o n e q u a t i o n s i n t h e s t u d y o f a r m s r a c e s , h a s f o c u s s e d a t t e n t i o n o n . only s e l e c t e d a s p e c t s o f t h e p r o b l e m , m a i n l y " c o m m i t m e n t " a n d " s i g n a l l i n g , " a n d h a s l e f t o t h e r i m p o r t a n t c o n s i d e r a t i o n s u n e x a m i n e d . S m o k e ' s c o m p l a i n t i s n o t t h a t g a m e t h e o r y i s i n a p p l i c a b l e t o d e t e r r e n c e p r o b l e m s , b u t o n l y t h a t i t h i g h l i g h t s 101 20] some aspects at the expense of others which might be equally important. In other words, the scope of game theory is inadequate for dealing with the complex totality of a deterrence situation. A similar point, which also has important implications for the de-ductive status of game theory, is made by Thomas Schelling. Schelling notes that unique deductive solutions to strategy problems are only available in "zero-sum" two-person games. Such games may adequately reflect the "all-or-nothing" nature of nuclear deterrence, but are much less applicable to the more subtle interactions that characterize crisis-type situations. For these cases, the so-called "mixed-motive" games, in which the players have interests in common as well as in conflict, become more applicable. But as Schelling points out, mixed-motive games do not have a unique deductive solution, "The principles relevant to successful play, the strategic principles, the propositions of a normat-ive theory, cannot be derived by purely analytical means from a priori 202 considerations." Thus, he concludes, "the mathematical structure... should not be permitted to dominate the analysis [since] some essential 203 part of the study of mixed-motive games is necessarily empirical." This seems to imply that with respect to those aspects of deterrence situations to which it is most applicable, game-theory is often not completely deductive. Like arms race models, however, game theory is not put forward to stand or fall on its merits as a deductive or predictive theory, but is held by its supporters also to be important as a heuristic tool for organizing and conceptualizing. Schelling, in particular, holds that the 102 r u d i m e n t s o f game t h e o r y c a n a c t a s a f r a m e w o r k , f o r a n a l y s i s w i t h i n w h i c h s o c i a l s c i e n t i s t s c a n p u r s u e t h e i r s u b s t a n t i v e i n t e r e s t s : . . . w h a t may b e m o s t i m p o r t a n t t o a s o c i a l s c i e n t i s t i s t h e s e r u d i m e n t s . T h e r u d i m e n t s c a n h e l p h i m t o m a k e h i s own t h e o r y , a n d m a k e i t i n r e l a t i o n t o t h e p a r t i c u l a r p r o b l e m s t h a t i n t e r e s t h i m . O n e o f t h e f i r s t t h i n g s t h a t s t r i k e a s o c i a l s c i e n t i s t w h e n h e b e g i n s t o e x p e r i m e n t w i t h i l l u s t r a t i v e m a t r i c e s i s h o w r i c h i n v a r i e t y t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p s c a n b e e v e n b e t w e e n t w o i n d i v i d u a l s a n d h o w many d i f f e r e n t m e a n i n g s t h e r e a r e f o r s u c h s i m p l e n o t i o n s a s " t h r e a t , " " a g r e e m e n t , " a n d " c o n f l i c t . " . . . E v e n t h e s i m p l e s t o f s i t u a t i o n s , i n v o l v i n g t w o i n d i v i d u a l s w i t h two a l t e r n a t i v e s a p i e c e t o c h o o s e f r o m , c a n -n o t b e e x h a u s t i v e l y a n a l y z e d a n d c a t a l o g u e d . T h e i r p o s s i b i l i t i e s a r e a l m o s t l i m i t l e s s . F o r t h i s r e a s o n , game t h e o r y i s m o r e t h a n a " t h e o r y , " m o r e t h a n a s e t o f t h e o r e m s a n d s o l u t i o n s ; i t i s a f r a m e w o r k f o r a n a l y s i s . T h i s p a s s a g e i l l u s t r a t e s w e l l t h e i n a b i l i t y o f f o r m a l t h e o r y t o s u b s u m e t h e v a r i o u s m a n i f e s t a t i o n o f e m p i r i c a l s o c i a l p h e n o m e n a . We m i g h t b e i n c l i n e d t o d i s a g r e e w i t h S c h e l l i n g h e r e o n l y w i t h r e f e r e n c e t o h i s c l a i m t h a t game t h e o r y , i n i t s r o l e a s a f r a m e w o r k f o r a n a l y s i s , i s m o r e t h a n a t h e o r y . B y t h e r e q u i r e m e n t s o f H-D t h e o r y , i t i s c e r t a i n l y f a r l e s s t h a n a t h e o r y . I t s d e f i c i e n c i e s a r e s i m i l a r t o t h o s e o f a r m s r a c e m o d e l s ; i t i s e m p i r i c a l l y i n a d e q u a t e a n d t h e r e f o r e p r e d i c t i v e l y p o o r , i t i s u n t e s t a b l e e v e n w h e n a p p l i c a b l e t o e m p i r i c a l c a s e s b e c a u s e o f t h e b a s i c a l l y s u b j e c t i v e e l e m e n t i n v o l v e d i n a s s i g n i n g u t i l i t y v a l u e s t o d i f f e r e n t o u t c o m e s , a n d i t c o n t a i n s n o u n i v e r s a l l a w s ( r e a d ' s o l u t i o n s ' ) e x c e p t i n t h e m o s t t r i v i a l i n s t a n c e s . 3 . E c o n o m i c a n d R a t i o n a l i s t i c M o d e l s o f I n t e r n a t i o n a l P r o c e s s e s Game t h e o r y , a t a m o r e g e n e r a l l e v e l , i s a p r o d u c t o f e c o n o m i c s . I t w a s f i r s t f o r m u l a t e d i n J o h n v o n N e u m a n n a n d O s c a r M o r g e n s t e r n ' s 103 c l a s s i c T h e o r y o f G a m e s a n d E c o n o m i c B e h a v i o r . u y j J T h u s , i t c o n t a i n s o n e i m p o r t a n t a s s u m p t i o n w h i c h w e h a v e n o t y e t d i s c u s s e d — t h e a s s u m p t i o n o f r a t i o n a l i t y . T h i s a s s u m p t i o n i s p r i m a r i l y r e s p o n s i b l e f o r t h e g a i n s t h a t h a v e b e e n m a d e i n d e v e l o p i n g d e d u c t i v e , a x i o m a t i c t h e o r i e s i n t h e 206 f i e l d o f e c o n o m i c s . I n v o n N e u m a n n a n d M o r g e n s t e r n ' s t h e o r y , i t i s o p e r a t i o n a l i z e d i n t e r m s o f t h e o b v i o u s g o a l o f m o n e t a r y g a i n i n e c o n o m i c b e h a v i o r : W e s h a l l a s s u m e t h a t t h e a i m o f a l l p a r t i c i p a n t s i n t h e e c o n o m i c s y s t e m . . . i s m o n e y , o r e q u i v a l e n t l y , a s i n g l e m o n e t a r y c o m m o d i t y . T h i s i s s u p p o s e d t o b e . . . i d e n t i c a l , e v e n i n t h e q u a n t i t a t i v e s e n s e , w i t h w h a t -e v e r ' s a t i s f a c t i o n ' o r ' u t i l i t y ' i s d e s i r e d b y e a c h p a r t i c i p a n t . . . . T h e i n d i v i d u a l w h o a t t e m p t s t o a t -t a i n t h e s e r e s p e c t i v e m a x i m a i s a l s o s a i d t o a c t ' r a t i o n a l l y ' . 2 0 7 I n a d d i t i o n t o i t s u s e I n g a m e t h e o r y , t h e r e h a v e b e e n s e v e r a l o t h e r a t t e m p t s b y b o t h p o l i t i c a l s c i e n t i s t s a n d e c o n o m i s t s t o t r a n s f e r t h i s c o n -c e p t o f r a t i o n a l i t y f r o m t h e e c o n o m i c t o t h e p o l i t i c a l s p h e r e . S i n c e t h e r e i s n o q u a n t i f i a b l e m e a s u r e m e n t o f r a t i o n a l u t i l i t y r e a d i l y a v a i l -a b l e i n p o l i t i c a l c o n t e x t s t h a t i s a n a l o g o u s t o m o n e y , s u c h a t r a n s f e r i s p r o b l e m a t i c . B u t s o l u t i o n s h a v e b e e n p u t f o r t h a n d , a s a r e s u l t , e c o n o m i c m o d e l s h a v e b e c o m e t h e m o s t p r e v a l e n t s o u r c e o f d e d u c t i v e t h e o r i e s i n i n t e r n a t i o n a l p o l i t i c s , a s w e l l a s p o l i t i c a l s c i e n c e a s a w h o l e . T h e s e t h e o r i e s , s o m e t i m e s r e f e r r e d t o a s " r a t i o n a l i s t i c " m o d e l s o f p o l i t i c a l b e h a v i o r , o f t e n b e c o m e q u i t e s o p h i s t i c a t e d i n t h e i r d e -d u c t i v e s t r u c t u r e . W e c a n b r i e f l y m e n t i o n s o m e o f t h e m o r e i m p o r t a n t o n e s h e r e a n d t h e n e x a m i n e o n e — R i k e r ' s T h e o r y o f P o l i t i c a l C o a l i t i o n s -i n m o r e d e t a i l i n o r d e r t o a s c e r t a i n h o w i t h a n d l e s t h e c o n c e p t o f 1 0 4 p o l i t i c a l r a t i o n a l i t y a n d h o w i t m a t c h e s u p t o t h e r e q u i r e m e n t s o f H-D t h e o r y . A . C o l l e c t i v e G o o d s , O l i g o p o l i e s , B u r e a u c r a c y , a n d G e n e r a l T h e o r i e s o f  P o l i t i c s S o m e a s p e c t s o f i n t e r n a t i o n a l p o l i t i c s h a v e b e e n a n a l y z e d i n t e r m s o f p r o b l e m s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h e s u p p l y o f c o l l e c t i v e g o o d s . A c o l l e c t i v e g o o d c a n b e g e n e r a l l y d e f i n e d a s a n y g o o d t h a t c a n n o t b e w i t h h e l d f r o m a n y m e m b e r o f a s p e c i f i e d g r o u p o n c e i t i s s u p p l i e d t o s o m e m e m b e r o f t h e g r o u p . I n p o l i t i c a l t e r m s , n a t i o n a l d e f e n s e w o u l d b e c o n s i d e r e d a n e x -a m p l e o f a c o l l e c t i v e g o o d . N o r m a n F r o l i c h a n d J o e A . O p p e n h e i m e r , f o r e x a m p l e , d e v e l o p a t h e o r y o f " e n t r e p r e n e u r i a l p o l i t i c s " i n w h i c h p o l i t i c a l l e a d e r s a r e c o n c e p t u a l i z e d a s " e n t r e p r e n e u r s " d i s p e n s i n g c o l l e c t i v e g o o d s i n o r d e r t o a c c r u e p o l i t i c a l g a i n s . T h e y u s e t h i s s c h e m e t o e x a m i n e d i f -f e r e n t i n t e r n a t i o n a l s i t u a t i o n s s u c h a s d e f e n s e a l l i a n c e s , f o r e i g n a i d , 208 a n d m i l i t a r y i n t e r v e n t i o n . O t h e r u s e s o f t h e c o l l e c t i v e g o o d s c o n -c e p t i n c l u d e s t u d i e s o f a l l i a n c e s , l e a d e r s h i p , a n d p o l i t i c a l p a r t i c i p a -„. 209 t i o n . S e v e r a l s o c i a l s c i e n t i s t s h a v e n o t e d a s i m i l a r i t y b e t w e e n t h e i n t e r -n a t i o n a l s y s t e m a n d s o m e o f t h e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f o l i g o p o l i s t i c m a r k e t s . Y o u n g o b s e r v e s t h a t t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l s y s t e m r e s e m b l e s s u c h m a r k e t s i t -u a t i o n s o n s e v e r a l c o u n t : . . . i t i n v o l v e s c o m p e t i t i v e - c o o p e r a t i v e i n t e r a c t i o n s a m o n g a l i m i t e d n u m b e r o f p u r p o s i v e a c t o r s w h o h a v e s o m e c a p a c i t y t o c o m m u n i c a t e w i t h e a c h o t h e r . E a c h o f t h e a c t o r s i s a r e l a t i v e l y c o m p l e x c o l l e c t i v e e n t i t y w h o s e e x t e r n a l b e h a v i o r i s o f t e n h a r d t o c a p t u r e i n s i m p l e m o d e l s . T h e n u m b e r o f a c t o r s i n t h e s y s t e m i s v i r t u a l l y a l w a y s g r e a t e r t h a n o n e . 1 0 5 B u t t h e n u m b e r o f a c t o r s i s s m a l l e n o u g h s o t h a t e v e r y a c t o r c a n i n t e r a c t w i t h t h e o t h e r s a s d i f -f e r e n t i a t e d e n t i t i e s , r a t h e r t h a n h a v i n g t o i n t e r -a c t w i t h a l l t h e o t h e r s t o g e t h e r a s a n a g g r e g a t e d • a n d u n d i f f e r e n t i a t e d e n v i r o n m e n t . 2 1 0 T h e o n l y m a j o r a p p l i c a t i o n o f t h i s i d e a t o i n t e r n a t i o n a l p o l i t i c s i s K e n n e t h B o u n d i n g 1 s g e n e r a l t h e o r y o f c o n f l i c t , w h i c h i s s t r u c t u r a l l y b a s e d o n t h e t h e o r y o f o l i g o p o l i e s i n c o m b i n a t i o n w i t h t h e r e a c t i o n m o d e l s a n d 2 1 1 g a m e t h e o r e t i c c o n c e p t s d i s c u s s e d a b o v e . B e y o n d t h i s , n o t m u c h e x -p l i c i t w o r k h a s b e e n d o n e t y i n g t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l s y s t e m a n d o l i g o p o -i s t i c m a r k e t c o n t e x t s t o g e t h e r . A t h i r d a r e a i n w h i c h r a t i o n a l i s t i c m o d e l s h a v e b e e n a p p l i e d i s t h e s t u d y o f b u r e a u c r a c i e s . T h i s c a n b e s e e n a s a t l e a s t i n d i r e c t l y a p p l i c -a b l e t o t h e s t u d y o f i n t e r n a t i o n a l p o l i t i c s , e s p e c i a l l y i n t e r m s o f h e l p i n g t o d e v e l o p v i a b l e m o d e l s o f n a t i o n a l a c t o r s t h a t w i l l s h e d l i g h t o n s o m e o f t h e i n t e r n a l c a u s e s o f i n t e r n a t i o n a l b e h a v i o r . T h e m a j o r r a t i o n a l i s t i c c o n t r i b u t i o n s t o t h i s l i t e r a t u r e a r e A n t h o n y D o w n ' s I n s i d e 2 1 2 B u r e a u c r a c y a n d G o r d o n T u l l o c k ' s T h e P o l i t i c s o f B u r e a u c r a c y . T h e s e a x i o m a t i c , d e d u c t i v e t h e o r i e s s t a n d i n i n t e r e s t i n g c o n t r a s t t o t h e o t h e r p r o m i n e n t a p p r o a c h t o b u r e a u c r a t i c s t u d i e s e x e m p l i f i e d b y t h e w o r k o f 2 1 3 R i c h a r d N e u s t a d t a n d G r a h a m A l l i s o n . F i n a l l y , a f e w a t t e m p t s h a v e b e e n m a d e t o d e v e l o p g e n e r a l t h e o r i e s o f p o l i t i c s b a s e d u p o n r a t i o n a l i s t i c a s s u m p t i o n s a n d e c o n o m i c m o d e l s . 2 1 4 A m o n g t h e s e h a v e b e e n t h e o r i e s o f d e m o c r a c y , a n d o f p o l i t i c a l e x -2 1 5 c h a n g e . O t h e r s , s u c h a s t h e g e n e r a l t h e o r y p u t f o r t h i n R i k e r a n d O r d e s h o o k ' s A n I n t r o d u c t i o n t o P o s i t i v e P o l i t i c a l T h e o r y , a r e e v e n m o r e e x t e n s i v e i n s c o p e . R i k e r ' s t h e o r y o f p o l i t i c a l c o a l i t i o n s , w i t h i t s 1 0 6 b r o a d r a n g e o f a p p l i c a t i o n s , c a n b e s e e n a s a g e n e r a l t h e o r y o f t h i s t y p e . T h e c e n t r a l i t y o f t h e c o n c e p t o f r a t i o n a l i t y t o t h e s e t h e o r i e s i s d i f f i c u l t t o o v e r e m p h a s i z e . I n a r e c e n t w o r k , R i k e r l i k e n s i t s r o l e i n s o c i a l s c i e n c e t o t h a t o f " m e c h a n i s m " i n p h y s i c a l s c i e n c e ; . . . i t i s c l e a r t h a t t h e a s s u m p t i o n o f r a t i o n a l i t y a n d t h e a s s u m p t i o n o f m e c h a n i s m p l a y c o m p a r a b l e r o l e s i n t h e e x p l a n a t i o n o f t h e s o c i a l a n d p h y s i c a l w o r l d s . T h e m e c h a n i c a l a s s u m p t i o n s a s s e r t t h a t t h e r e i s s o m e t h i n g a b o u t t h i n g s t h a t a s s u r e s u s t h e y w i l l ( u s u a l l y ) m o v e r e g u l a r l y , a n d t h e r a t i o n -a l i t y a s s u m p t i o n a s s e r t s t h a t t h e r e i s s o m e t h i n g a b o u t p e o p l e t h a t m a k e s t h e m b e h a v e ( u s u a l l y ) i n a r e g u l a r w a y . I n e a c h c a s e t h e f u n c t i o n o f s c i e n c e i s t o g e n e r a l i z e a b o u t t h e r e g u l a r i t i e s . 2 1 6 F u r t h e r , h e s e e s i t a s t h e o n l y a d e q u a t e b a s e f o r d e d u c t i v e t h e o r y b u i l d i n g i n t h e s o c i a l s c i e n c e s . I n t h i s r e g a r d , h e c o n t r a s t s t h e " p o s -t u l a t e d r e g u l a r i t y " i m p o s e d b y t h e r a t i o n a l i t y p r i n c i p l e w i t h t h e " o b -s e r v e d r e g u l a r i t y " a s s o c i a t e d w i t h e m p i r i c a l - i n d u c t i v e m e t h o d s ; h o l d i n g l i k e a g o o d d e d u c t i v i s t , t h a t t h e f o r m e r i s i n t r i n s i c a l l y s u p e r i o r t o t h e l a t t e r : . . . t h e n o t i o n o f r a t i o n a l i t y . . . i s o n e o f t h e w a y s b y w h i c h w e a r r i v e a t t h e r e g u l a r i t y n e c e s s a r y f o r g e n e r a l i z a t i o n . W h e t h e r o r n o t i t i s b e t t e r t h a n s i m p l e o b s e r v a t i o n i s c u r r e n t l y t h e s u b j e c t o f s o m e d i s c u s s i o n i n p o l i t i c a l s c i e n c e . . . . A s i s a p p a r e n t , w e s i d e w i t h d e d u c t i v e m e t h o d s a n d p o s t u l a t e d r e g -u l a r i t y , l a r g e l y b e c a u s e w e b e l i e v e t h e m m o r e e f -f i c i e n t t h a n t h e i r a l t e r n a t i v e . B y t h e m e t h o d o f p o s t u l a t e d r e g u l a r i t y o n e c a n a t l e a s t h o p e t o a v o i d e r r o n e o u s g e n e r a l i z a t i o n s b a s e d o n a c c i d e n t . . . a l t h o u g h o n e c a n n o t a v o i d e r r o r s o f o b s e r v a t i o n t h a t o c c u r w i t h e i t h e r m e t h o d . A t t h e s a m e t i m e , t h e m e t h o d o f p o s t u l a t e d r e g u l a r i t y i s p o s i t i v e l y m o r e e f f i c i e n t , b e c a u s e i t p e r m i t s t h e e a s y g e n e r a t i o n o f h y p o t h e s e s a n d o f f e r s a s i n g l e a n d p a r s i m o n i o u s e x p l a n a t i o n o f b e h a v i o r . A s a g a i n s t 107 t h i s e f f i c i e n c y , t h e m e t h o d o f o b s e r v e d r e g u l a r i t y i s a d h o c . N o h y p o t h e s i s c a n b e d e r i v e d w i t h o u t a s e t o f p r i o r o b s e r v a t i o n s , a n d e v e r y h y p o t h e s i s i s a n o t h e r k i n d o f e x p l a n a t i o n . T h i s o f t e n r e s u l t s i n a m y r i a d o f n o n c o n t r a d i c t o r y h y p o t h e s e s t h a t n e e d t h e o r y t o b r i n g t h e m t o g e t h e r . E v e n i f c a t a l o g u e d i n t o h y p o t h e s e s , b e h a v i o r a p p e a r s e x t r a o r d i n a r i l y c o m p l e x , w h e n , w i t h a s i m p l i f y i n g a n d c o o r d i n a t i n g t h e o r y , m u c h o f t h e c o m p l e x i t y d i s a p p e a r s . O n t h e p r a c t i c a l g r o u n d s o f e f f i c i e n c y , t h e r e f o r e , w e p r e f e r p o s t u l a t e d r e g u l a r i t y . H e n c e , t h e n o t i o n o f r a t i o n a l i t y m u s t p l a y a n e x t r e m e l y i m p o r t a n t r o l e i n o u r t h e o r y o f p o l i t i c s . 2 1 7 T h i s p a s s a g e i s p a r t i c u l a r l y i n t e r e s t i n g i n i t s e x p l i c i t e s p o u s a l o f t h e r e q u i r e m e n t s o f f o r m o v e r t h o s e o f c o n t e n t . T o R i k e r ' s c r i t e r i o n o f e f f i c i e n c y , i t s e e m s p r u d e n t t o a d d t h e p r o v i s o : e f f i c i e n c y f o r w h a t ? C e r t a i n l y h e m u s t b e c o n c e r n e d p r i m a r i l y w i t h u n d e r s t a n d i n g p o l i t i c s a s ^ p r a c t i c e d , n o t w i t h b u i l d i n g ' e f f i c i e n t ' t h e o r i e s f o r t h e i r o w n s a k e . I t s h o u l d b e e m p h a s i z e d t h a t s i m p l i c i t y p e r s e i s n o t a n i n e l u c t a b l e c o m -p o n e n t o f g o o d t h e o r i e s . A s K a p l a n m a k e s c l e a r , b l i n d a l l e g i a n c e t o s i m p l i c i t y i s u n n e c e s s a r y a s w e l l a s a n t i t h e t i c a l t o h e a l t h y e m p i r i c i s m : W h y s h o u l d t h e s i m p l e r t h e o r y b e t h e b e t t e r o n e ? . . . W h a t i s b e y o n d d i s p u t e i s t h e p h y s i c i s t F r e s n e l ' s r e m a r k t h a t " N a t u r e d o e s n ' t c a r e a b o u t m a t h e m a t i c a l d i f f i c u l t i e s . " I n d e e d , t h e a r g u m e n t c a n s o m e t i m e s b e m a d e a g a i n s t a t h e o r y ( f o r i n s t a n c e , a t h e o r y o f h u m a n m o t i v a t i o n ) t h a t t h e t r o u b l e w i t h i t i s t h a t i t i s t o o s i m p l e ; n a t u r e s o m e t i m e s s e e m s t o p r e f e r c o m p l e x i t y . M o r e r e a l i s t i c a l l y , b o t h s o r t s o f c a s e s m u s t b e a c k n o w l e d g e d . " I f w e s t u d y t h e h i s t o r y o f s c i e n c e , " s a y s P o i n c a r e , " w e s e e h a p p e n t w o i n v e r s e p h e n o m e n a , s o t o s p e a k . S o m e t i m e s s i m p l i c i t y h i d e s u n d e r c o m p l e x a p p e a r a n c e s ; s o m e -t i m e s i t i s t h e s i m p l i c i t y w h i c h i s a p p a r e n t a n d w h i c h d i s g u i s e s e x t r e m e l y c o m p l i c a t e d r e a l i t i e s . " T h e p r o g r e s s i n s c i e n c e i s n o t a l w a y s i n t h e d i r e c t i o n o f s i m p l e r t h e o r y . A l l t h i n g s c o n s i d e r e d , p e r h a p s t h e b e s t m e t h o d -o l o g i c a l c o u n s e l a s t o t h e n o r m o f s i m p l i c i t y i s 1 0 8 2 1 8 W h i t e h e a d ' s : " S e e k s i m p l i c i t y a n d d i s t r u s t i t . " b . R i k e r ' s T h e o r y o f P o l i t i c a l C o a l i t i o n s W i t h t h e i m p o r t a n c e o f t h e n o t i o n o f r a t i o n a l i t y i n m i n d , w e c a n n o w t u r n t o a c o n s i d e r a t i o n o f h o w R i k e r e m p l o y s i t i n h i s T h e o r y o f  P o l i t i c a l C o a l i t i o n s . A s w e m e n t i o n e d a b o v e , o n e o f t h e m a j o r d i f f i c u l -t i e s e n c o u n t e r e d i n a p p l i c a t i o n s o f r a t i o n a l i s t i c m o d e l s t o p o l i t i c a l d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g i n v o l v e s t h e d e v e l o p m e n t o f r u l e s o f i n t e r p r e t a t i o n f o r t h e c o n c e p t " r a t i o n a l u t i l i t y . " Q u i t e e v i d e n t l y , t h e i s o m o r p h i s m b e t w e e n u t i l i t y s c a l e s a n d m o n e t a r y u n i t s a s s u m e d b y e c o n o m i c s h a s n o o b v i o u s c o u n t e r p a r t i n p o l i t i c a l s c i e n c e . A s a r e s u l t , t w o a l t e r n a t i v e a p p r o a c h e s h a v e a t v a r i o u s t i m e s b e e n p r o p o s e d . O n e , p u t f o t t h b y R . D u n c a n L u c e a n d H o w a r d R a i f f a , h o l d s t h a t a n y d e c i s i o n i s r a t i o n a l a s l o n g a s i t 2 1 9 r e p r e s e n t s t h e p r e f e r r e d o u t c o m e o f t h e p e r s o n w h o m a k e s i t . R i k e r o b j e c t s t o t h i s f o r m u l a t i o n , n o t i n g t h a t a l t h o u g h i t s o l v e s t h e p r o b l e m o f i r r a t i o n a l b e h a v i o r , w h i c h i s d e f i n e d o u t o f e x i s t e n c e , i t r e s u l t s i n t h e r a t i o n a l i t y c o n d i t i o n b e c o m i n g " n o m o r e t h a n a c o n d i t i o n f o r t h e e x -2 2 0 i s t e n c e o f p a r t i c i p a n t s w h o b e h a v e i n a s o c i a l s i t u a t i o n . " T h u s i t m a k e s t h e d e v e l o p m e n t o f a s u b j e c t i v e u t i l i t y s c a l e i m p o s s i b l e . T h e s e c o n d a p p r o a c h i s t o a c c e p t a m o r e l i m i t e d d e f i n i t i o n o f r a t i o n a l i t y . T h i s , h o w e v e r , a l s o p r e s e n t s a p r o b l e m . A s R i k e r p u t s i t , " H o w c a n t h e r a t i o n a l i t y c o n d i t i o n b e s t a t e d i n s u c h a w a y t h a t i t i s m o r e t h a n a t a u t o l o g y b u t n o t s u b j e c t t o t h e c r i t i c i s m i m p l i e d b y t h o s e e x p e r i m e n t s w h i c h s h o w t h a t t h e s c a l e o f i n d i v i d u a l u t i l i t y i s n o t t h e s a m e a s a s c a l e o f m o n e y ? " 2 2 " * " R i k e r ' s s o l u t i o n i s t o d e f i n e r a t i o n a l i t y i n t e r m s o f t h e c o n c e p t 1 0 9 o f " w i n n i n g . " " P o l i t i c a l l y r a t i o n a l m a n i s t h e m a n w h o w o u l d r a t h e r w i n 2 2 2 t h a n l o s e , r e g a r d l e s s o f t h e s t a k e s . " H e r e s t a t e s t h i s d e f i n i t i o n i n t h e f o l l o w i n g f o r m , w h i c h h e h o l d s t o b e b o t h d e f e n s i b l e a n d n o n t a u t o l -o g i c a l : . G i v e n s o c i a l s i t u a t i o n s w i t h i n c e r t a i n k i n d s o f d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g i n s t i t u t i o n s ( o f w h i c h p a r l o r g a m e s , t h e m a r k e t , e l e c t i o n s , a n d w a r f a r e a r e n o t a b l e e x -a m p l e s ) a n d i n w h i c h e x i s t t w o a l t e r n a t i v e c o u r s e s o f a c t i o n w i t h d i f f e r i n g o u t c o m e s i n m o n e y o r p o w e r o r s u c c e s s , s o m e p a r t i c i p a n t s w i l l c h o o s e t h e a l t e r -n a t i v e l e a d i n g t o t h e l a r g e r p a y o f f . S u c h c h o i c e i s r a t i o n a l b e h a v i o r a n d i t w i l l b e a c c e p t e d a s d e f i n i t -i v e w h i l e t h e b e h a v i o r o f p a r t i c i p a n t s w h o d o n o t s o c h o o s e w i l l n o t n e c e s s a r i l y b e s o a c c e p t e d . 2 2 3 T h e r e a r e , o f c o u r s e , s t i l l p r o b l e m s w i t h t h i s f o r m u l a t i o n . F i r s t o f a l l , i n o r d e r t o a v o i d b e i n g a t a u t o l o g y , t h e d e f i n i t i o n d e m a n d s t h e c o n d i t i o n o f t o t a l k n o w l e d g e . T h a t i s , " E v e r y p o s s i b l e c o u r s e o f a c t i o n o p e n t o t h e p a r t i c i p a n t s a n d i t s r e w a r d s t o t h e m m u s t b e k n o w n t o t h e m 22 A . . . " A l t h o u g h R i k e r m e n t i o n s t h i s a s a c o n d i t i o n f o r t w o - p e r s o n , z e r o - s u m g a m e s , w h i c h h e f e e l s a r e t o o r e s t r i c t i v e a s a m o d e l o f p o l i -t i c s , h e f a i l s t o e x p l i c i t l y i n c l u d e i t a s a c o n d i t i o n f o r h i s p r e f e r r e d m o d e l , w h i c h i s b a s e d o n n - p e r s o n , z e r o - s u m g a m e s . H o w e v e r , i t i s c l e a r t h a t s u c h a c o n d i t i o n i s n e c e s s a r y f o r a r a t i o n a l d e c i s i o n t o b e m a d e i n t e r m s o f t h e a b o v e d e f i n i t i o n . O t h e r w i s e a l l p a r t i c i p a n t s w o u l d m e r e l y c h o o s e t h e o u t c o m e t h e y f e l t w o u l d l e a d t o t h e h i g h e s t p a y o f f , a n d t h i s w o u l d r e v e r t t h e d e f i n i t i o n t o o n e o f a l l d e c i s i o n s b e i n g e s s e n t i a l l y r a t i o n a l . S e c o n d l y , t h e t o t a l k n o w l e d g e c o n d i t i o n i m p l i e s t h a t i r r a t i o n a l b e h a v i o r c a n i n d e e d o c c u r , b u t i s n o t c o v e r e d b y t h e t h e o r y . T h u s , a l l b e h a v i o r t h a t d o e s n o t c o n f o r m t o t h e r a t i o n a l p u r s u i t o f " w i n n i n g , " 110 e i t h e r i n t e r m s o f m o n e y , p o w e r , o r s u c c e s s i s b y d e f i n i t i o n e x c l u d e d f r o m c o n s i d e r a t i o n a s " p o l i t i c a l b e h a v i o r . " V i e w i n g t h i s r e s t r i c t i o n a s a b r i d g i n g s e n t e n c e c o n n e c t i n g t h e t h e o r y t o e m p i r i c a l r e a l i t y , w e c a n s e e t h a t t h e u n i v e r s e o f c a s e s i t a l l o w s a s a c c e p t a b l e c o n t e n t f o r t h e m o d e l i s c o r r e s p o n d i n g l y d e c r e a s e d . F o r e x a m p l e , L y n d o n J o h n s o n ' s d e c i -s i o n n o t t o r u n f o r a n o t h e r t e r m a s p r e s i d e n t i n 1 9 6 8 w o u l d n o t b e a d -m i s s i b l e a s p o l i t i c a l b e h a v i o r i n t e r m s o f R i k e r " s f o r m u l a t i o n o f t h e c o n -d i t i o n o f r a t i o n a l i t y . T h i r d l y , t h e r e i s a q u e s t i o n a s t o w h e t h e r R i k e r ' s d e f i n i t i o n r e a l l y a v o i d s t h e p r o b l e m o f e q u a t i n g u t i l i t y s c a l e s a n d m o n e y s c a l e s . B y l u m p i n g m o n e y , p o w e r , a n d s u c c e s s t o g e t h e r , i t c o u l d b e a r g u e d t h a t h e i s a s s u m i n g a n i s o m o r p h i c u t i l i t y s c a l e a m o n g t h e m . T h u s , i f a p a r t i c i p a n t h a s a c h o i c e b e t w e e n x a m o u n t o f m o n e y a n d y a m o u n t o f p o w e r , h e w i l l r e q u i r e a m e a n s o f m e a s u r e m e n t c o m m o n t o t h e m b o t h i n o r d e r t o c h o o s e t h e r a t i o n a l r e s p o n s e . H o w t h i s a p p r o a c h a v o i d s t h e p r o b l e m o f e q u a t i n g m o n e t a r y a n d u t i l i t y s c a l e s i s n o t e x p l i c a t e d b y R i k e r . I n s p i t e o f t h e s e p r o b l e m s , h o w e v e r , h e e m p h a s i z e s t h a t " t h i s r e v i s e d f o r m o f t h e r a t i o n a l i t y c o n d i t i o n c a n b e v e r i f i e d i n o n l y o n e w a y ; t h a t i s b y s h o w i n g t h a t a m o d e l u s i n g i t p e r m i t s t h e d e d u c t i o n o f n o n - o b v i o u s h y p o t h e s e s w h i c h c a n t h e m s e l v e s b e v e r i f i e d b y e x p e r i m e n t , 2 2 5 o b s e r v a t i o n , a n d p r e d i c t i o n . B e f o r e w e t u r n t o t h e p r o b l e m o f v e r i f i c a t i o n , w e s h o u l d e x a m i n e t h e o t h e r a s s u m p t i o n s u p o n w h i c h t h e t h e o r y i s b a s e d , a n d t h e n o n - o b v i o u s h y p o t h e s e s t h a t a r e d e d u c e d f r o m t h e s e a s s u m p t i o n s . T h e s e c o n d m a j o r a s s u m p t i o n o f R i k e r ' s t h e o r y i s t h e z e r o - s u m c o n -d i t i o n . " I n a p p l i c a t i o n t o s o c i e t y , " h e n o t e s , " t h e z e r o - s u m c o n d i t i o n I l l i s t h e r e q u i r e m e n t t h a t s o c i a l s i t u a t i o n s b e a b s t r a c t e d f o r s t u d y i n s u c h a w a y t h a t o n l y t h e d i r e c t c o n f l i c t s a m o n g p a r t i c i p a n t s a r e i n c l u d e d , a n d 2 2 6 c o m m o n a d v a n t a g e s a r e i g n o r e d . " H e i s w e l l a w a r e t h a t t h i s i s n o t a p a r t i c u l a r l y c o m m o n s t a t e o f a f f a i r s i n p o l i t i c s , t h a t s o m e e l e m e n t o f m u t u a l g a i n i s u s u a l l y e v i d e n t . F o r e x a m p l e , h e o b s e r v e s t h a t : . . . o n e v e r y i n t e r e s t i n g t h i n g a b o u t p o l i t i c a l s o c i e t i e s i s t h a t p e o p l e c o n s e n t t o r e m a i n i n t h e m , e v e n w h e n t h e y a r e o n t h e l o s i n g s i d e i n p a r t i c u l a r d e c i s i o n s . T h i s f a c t , w h i c h h a s i m -p r e s s e d p o l i t i c a l p h i l o s o p h e r s a t l e a s t s i n c e t h e t i m e o f P l a t o a n d w h i c h i s t h e o b s e r v a t i o n a l b a s i s f o r t h e i n n u m e r a b l e a n d d r e a r i l y r e p e t i t i o u s t h e o r i e s o f s o c i a l c o n t r a c t , c a n n o t b e e x p r e s s e d i n t e r m s o f a z e r o - s u m g a m e . 2 2 7 H o w e v e r , h e m a i n t a i n s t h a t " s t i l l w e d o f r e q u e n t l y p e r c e i v e w h a t w e 2 2 8 i m a g i n e t o b e p u r e c o n f l i c t s i t u a t i o n s . " A m o n g s u c h s i t u a t i o n s , h e i n c l u d e s e l e c t i o n s a n d w a r s . H e c o n c l u d e s , t h e r e f o r e , t h a t : . . . w h e t h e r o r n o t o n e s h o u l d u s e t h e z e r o - s u m m o d e l d e p e n d s e n t i r e l y o n t h e w a y o n e ' s s u b j e c t i s c o m m o n l y p e r c e i v e d . I n d i s c u s s i n g b a r g a i n s , w h i c h a r e p e r c e i v e d a s m u t u a l g a i n , o f c o u r s e , a n o n - z e r o - s u m m o d e l i s p r o b a b l y b e s t . O n t h e o t h e r h a n d , i n d i s c u s s i n g e l e c t i o n s a n d w a r s , w h i c h a r e p e r c e i v e d a s r e q u i r i n g i n d i v i s i b l e v i c t o r y , t h e z e r o - s u m m o d e l i s p r o b a b l y b e s t a n d I s h a l l u s e i t h e r e w h e n I w i s h t o t a l k a b o u t t h e s e a n d o t h e r e s s e n t i a l l y p o l i t i c a l d e c i s i o n s . 2 2 9 I t i s c l e a r t h a t t h i s a s s u m p t i o n a l s o c o n t a i n s b r i d g i n g s e n t e n c e s w h i c h r e s t r i c t t h e c o n t e n t o f t h e t h e o r y . I n t h i s c a s e , a l l p o l i t i c a l s i t u a t i o n s t h a t i n v o l v e m u t u a l g a i n b e c o m e i n a d m i s s i b l e f o r s t u d y u n d e r t h e t h e o r y . T h u s , i t i s d i f f i c u l t t o i m a g i n e m a n y " e s s e n t i a l l y p o l i t i c a l d e c i s i o n s " o t h e r t h a n e l e c t i o n s a n d a l l - o u t w a r f a r e t h a t s a t i s f y R i k e r ' s i n i t i a l c o n d i t i o n s . 112 T h e t h i r d b a s i c e l e m e n t o f R i k e r ' s t h e o r y o f p o l i t i c a l c o a l i t i o n s i s t h e n - p e r s o n t h e o r y o f g a m e s . I n t e r m s o f t h e H-D f o r m u l a t i o n , t h i s e l e m e n t c a n b e s e e n a s c o n t r i b u t i n g t o t h e i n t e r n a l p r i n c i p l e s o f t h e t h e o r y . I t p r o v i d e s a s o r t o f f o r m a l c a l c u l u s , a n d c o n t a i n s s u b s t a n t i v e i m p l i c a t i o n s s u c h a s d e f i n i t i o n s a n d s c o p e c o n d i t i o n s t h a t s e r v e t o u n d e r l i e t h e a b o v e a s s u m p t i o n s . Together, t h e s e t h r e e a s s u m p t i o n s c o m b i n e t o f o r m t h e a x i o m a t i c f o u n d a t i o n o f t h e t h e o r y . T h e y a r e t a k e n a s " g i v e n , " s u b j e c t t o v e r i f i -c a t i o n i n t e r m s o f l o w e r l e v e l e m p i r i c a l h y p o t h e s e s t h a t a r e d e d u c i b l e f r o m t h e m . R i k e r d e r i v e s t h r e e s u c h h y p o t h e s e s : ( 1 ) T h e s i z e p r i n c i p l e ? " I n n - p e r s o n , z e r o - s u m g a m e s , w h e r e s i d e p a y m e n t s a r e p e r m i t t e d , w h e r e p l a y e r s a r e r a t i o n a l , a n d w h e r e t h e y h a v e p e r f e c t i n f o r m a t i o n , o n l y m i n i m u m w i n n i n g c o a l i t i o n s o c c u r . " 2 3 0 ( 2 ) T h e s t r a t e g i c p r i n c i p l e : " . . . i n s y s t e m s o r b o d i e s i n w h i c h t h e s i z e p r i n c i p l e i s o p e r a t i v e , p a r t i c i p a n t s i n t h e f i n a l s t a g e s o f c o a l i t i o n f o r m a t i o n s h o u l d a n d d o m o v e ' t o w a r d a m i n i m u m w i n n i n g c o a l i t i o n . " 2 3 1 ( 3 ) T h e d i s e q u i l i b r i u m p r i n c i p l e : " . . . i n s y s t e m s o r b o d i e s w h e r e t h e s i z e a n d s t r a t e g i c p r i n c i p l e s a r e o p e r a t i v e , t h e s y s t e m s o r b o d i e s a r e t h e m -s e l v e s u n s t a b l e . T h a t i s , t h e y c o n t a i n f o r c e s l e a d i n g t o w a r d d e c i s i o n a n d h e n c e t o w a r d t h e e l i m i n a t i o n o f p a r t i c i p a n t s . " 2 3 2 W e c a n n o w t u r n t o t h e q u e s t i o n o f h o w R i k e r a t t e m p t s t o v e r i f y t h e s e h y p o t h e s e s . S i n c e p r o p o s i t i o n ( 1 ) i s l o g i c a l l y p r i o r t o p r o p o s i -t i o n s ( 2 ) a n d ( 3 ) , w e c a n f o c u s o u r e x a m i n a t i o n o n i t . T h i s e x a m i n a t i o n s h o u l d i n t u r n p r o v i d e u s w i t h a n i n d i c a t i o n o f s o m e o f t h e s t r e n g t h s a n d w e a k n e s s e s o f t h e t h e o r y a s a w h o l e , a s w e l l a s o f t h e r a t i o n a l i s t i c a p -p r o a c h i n g e n e r a l . 113 I n o r d e r t o v e r i f y t h e s i z e p r i n c i p l e , R i k e r f i r s t f o r m u l a t e s a n " a n a l o g o u s s t a t e m e n t a b o u t t h e r e a l w o r l d : " I n s o c i a l s i t u a t i o n s s i m i l a r t o n - p e r s o n , z e r o - s u m g a m e s w i t h s i d e p a y m e n t s , p a r t i c i p a n t s c r e a t e c o a l i t i o n s j u s t a s l a r g e a s t h e y b e l i e v e w i l l e n s u r e w i n n i n g a n d n o l a r g e r . 2 3 3 H e t h e n p r o p o s e s t o v e r i f y t h i s p r i n c i p l e i n t h e f o l l o w i n g w a y : I h a v e d e v i s e d t w o c l a s s e s o f s i t u a t i o n s i n w h i c h c o a l i t i o n s o f t h e w h o l e h a v e b e e n f o r m e d b y r e a s o n o f s o m e a c c i d e n t a l c i r c u m s t a n c e . T h e n I h a v e s h o w n t h a t i n e v e r y i n s t a n c e i n t h e s e t w o c l a s s e s o f e v e n t s , t h e s i z e o f t h e c o a l i t i o n o f t h e w h o l e , w h i c h a c c o r d i n g t o t h e t h e o r y , h a s n o v a l u e , h a s b e e n r e d u c e d t o a s m a l l e r s i z e t h a t h a s s o m e v a l u e . T h u s , t h e v a l i d i t y o f t h e s i z e p r i n c i p l e h a s b e e n p r o v e d f o r t h e s e t w o c l a s s e s a n d , t o t h e d e g r e e t h a t t h e s e c l a s s e s a r e r e p r e s e n t a t i v e l y d r a w n f r o m z e r o - s u m s i t u a t i o n s , i t i s s t r o n g l y i m p l i e d t h a t t h e s i z e p r i n c i p l e h o l d s i n a l l o t h e r c l a s s e s o f e v e n t s l i k e l y t o o c c u r i n t h e s i t -u a t i o n s f r o m w h i c h t h e s e c l a s s e s a r e d r a w n . J T h e t w o c l a s s e s o f s i t u a t i o n s i n v o k e d b y R i k e r i n v o l v e o v e r w h e l m -i n g m a j o r i t i e s i n A m e r i c a n p o l i t i c s a n d w o r l d p o l i t i c s . S i n c e w e a r e m a i n l y i n t e r e s t e d i n t h e i m p l i c a t i o n s o f R i k e r ' s t h e o r y f o r i n t e r n a t i o n a l p h e n o m e n a , w e w i l l o n l y c o n s i d e r h i s a r g u m e n t w i t h r e f e r e n c e t o t h e s e c o n d c l a s s h e r e . T h e o v e r w h e l m i n g m a j o r i t i e s i n t h i s c a s e r e s u l t f r o m t h e o u t c o m e s o f t o t a l w a r s . T h e f i r s t s t e p o f v e r i f i c a t i o n i n v o l v e s t h e s p e c i f y i n g o f l i n k s b e t w e e n t h e e m p i r i c a l s i t u a t i o n a n d t h e i n t e r n a l p r i n c i p l e s o f t h e t h e o r y . T h u s , R i k e r n o t e s : T h e d e v e l o p m e n t i n t h e s i x t e e n t h c e n t u r y o f t h e s y s t e m o f E u r o p e a n n a t i o n - s t a t e s a n d t h e f a i r l y r e c e n t e x t e n s i o n o f t h i s s y s t e m t o t h e w h o l e w o r l d c r e a t e d a p a t t e r n o f i n t e r n a t i o n a l 114 p o l i t i c s v e r y m u c h l i k e a n n - p e r s o n g a m e . T h e p l a y e r s a r e t h e n a t i o n s . . . . [ O c c a s i o n a l l y i n t e r n a t i o n a l p o l i t i c s t u r n s i n t o a z e r o - s u m game a s w h e n t o t a l w a r h a s o c c u r r e d . . . . I f i t d o e s b e c o m e a n a n a l o g u e o f a z e r o - s u m g a m e , t h e e x p e r i e n c e o f i n t e r n a t i o n a l p o l i t i c s a l s o b e c o m e s r e l e v a n t e v i d e n c e a b o u t t h e m o d e l . 2 3 5 I f we a d d t h e a s s u m p t i o n t h a t t h e p l a y e r s a c t r a t i o n a l l y , t h e n i t a p p e a r s t h a t R i k e r ' s t h r e e u n d e r l y i n g a s s u m p t i o n s a r e s a t i s f i e d i n c a s e s o f t o t a l w a r . N e x t , h e g i v e s a n ( e m p i r i c a l ) i n t e r p r e t a t i o n o f t h e ( t h e o r e t i c a l ) s i z e p r i n c i p l e : I f o n e s i d e a c t u a l l y w i n s , t h a t i s , i f o n e s i d e i s e x h a u s t e d b e f o r e t h e o t h e r , t h e n v i c t o r y , b y r e m o v -i n g t h e l o s e r s , t r a n s f o r m s a ( p r o b a b l y m i n i m a l ) w i n n i n g c o a l i t i o n i n t o a g r a n d c o a l i t i o n . . . . A s s u m i n g , a s I s h a l l , t h a t w i n n e r s i n t o t a l w a r r e t a i n f o r some t i m e t h e z e r o - s u m h a b i t s o f t h o u g h t e n g e n d e r e d b y t h e i r v e r y p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n i t , t h e n t h e y w i l l r e j e c t a c o a l i t i o n o f t h e w h o l e a n d b e g i n t o s q u a b b l e among t h e m s e l v e s . P r e s u m a b l y t h e y w i l l s e e k t o s u b s t i t u t e f o r i t s o m e t h i n g t h a t a p p r o a c h e s a m i n i m a l w i n n i n g c o a l i t i o n . I f , i n f a c t , t h e y a c t u a l l y do s o , t h e i r a c t i o n c o n s t i t u t e s . . . v e r i f i -c a t i o n o f t h e s i z e p r i n c i p l e . 2 3 6 W i t h h i s t h e o r y t h u s h o o k e d t o t h e s u b j e c t m a t t e r a t h a n d , R i k e r i s a b l e t o p e r f o r m a t e s t . He e x a m i n e s t h e " t h r e e i n s t a n c e s o f t o t a l w a r i n . t h e m o d e r n s t a t e s y s t e m : t h e N a p o l e o n i c w a r s a n d t h e f i r s t a n d 2 3 7 s e c o n d w o r l d w a r s . " " I n e a c h i n s t a n c e , h e o b s e r v e s , t h e g r a n d c o a l i -t i o n t h a t e m e r g e d v i c t o r i o u s a t t h e e n d o f t h e c o n f l i c t q u i c k l y d i v i d e d i n t o o p p o s i n g f a c t i o n s . T h e C o n c e r t o f E u r o p e d i v i d e d o v e r t h e . t e r r i t o -r i a l a m b i t i o n s o f P r u s s i a a n d R u s s i a , W o r l d Wa r I r e s u l t e d i n t h e f o r m a -t i o n b u t e v e n t u a l c o l l a p s e o f t h e L e a g u e o f N a t i o n s , a n d W o r l d W a r I I 115-q u i c k l y l e d t o t h e C o l d W a r , i n w h i c h t h e U . S . a n d t h e S o v i e t U n i o n a t - » -t e m p t e d t o m a r s h a l l t h e w o r l d i n t o o p p o s i n g c o a l i t i o n s . F r o m t h i s e x -a m i n a t i o n o f e m p i r i c a l d a t a , w h i c h i n c l u d e s a l l c a s e s o f t o t a l w a r i n t h e W e s t e r n s t a t e s y s t e m , R i k e r r e a c h e s t h e f o l l o w i n g c o n c l u s i o n : . . . t h e w i n n i n g c o a l i t i o n s o f t o t a l w a r d o n o t l o n g s u r v i v e v i c t o r y . B o t h i n t h e m o d e l a n d i n a c t u a l i t y t h e y h a v e b e c o m e v a l u e l e s s . T h e y d i e b e c a u s e v i c -t o r y r e n d e r s t h e m n u g a t o r y . T o w i n s o m e t h i n g o f v a l u e i n t h e n e x t p h r a s e f o l l o w i n g t o t a l w a r , t h e s i z e o f t h e w i n n i n g c o a l i t i o n m u s t b e r e d u c e d . F r o m t h e e v i d e n c e o f t o t a l w a r . . . , t h e s i z e p r i n -c i p l e i s t h u s a d d i t i o n a l l y v e r i f i e d . 2 3 8 D o e s t h i s t e s t v e r i f y t h e s i z e p r i n c i p l e ? T h e a n s w e r , i f g i v e n i n t e r m s o f t h e r e q u i r e m e n t s o f H - D t h e o r y , m u s t b e n o . W h a t R i k e r h a s s h o w n h e r e i s n o t t h a t p o s t - w a r c o a l i t i o n s t e n d t o b e c o m e d e f i n i t e l y m i n i m a l , a s t h e s i z e p r i n c i p l e d e m a n d s , b u t o n l y t h a t t h e y t e n d t o b e c o m e l e s s t h a n m a x i m a l . I n h i s e x p l i c a t i o n o f t h e t e s t , R i k e r n o t e s t h a t t h e s i z e p r i n c i p l e w i l l b e p r o v e n i f a l l c a s e s o f g r a n d c o a l i t i o n s f o l l o w i n g t o t a l w a r s e v e n t u a l l y b r e a k u p . T h i s i s a n i n c o r r e c t i n f e r -e n c e . I n t h e f i r s t p l a c e , a s w e h a v e s e e n , v e r i f i c a t i o n c a n n e v e r b e a b s o l u t e ; t h u s , t h e h y p o t h e s i s m a y w e l l b e d i s c o n f i r m e d i n a f u t u r e c a s e . S e c o n d l y , t h e h y p o t h e s i s t h a t R i k e r ' s t e s t h a s l e n d e d c r e d e n c e t o i s n o t t h e s i z e p r i n c i p l e , b u t t h i s : a f t e r t o t a l w a r s , g r a n d c o a l i -t i o n s t e n d t o b r e a k u p i n t o s m a l l e r c o a l i t i o n s . N o i n f e r e n c e s c o n c e r n -i n g t h e s p e c i f i c s i z e s o f t h e r e s u l t a n t c o a l i t i o n s c a n b e d r a w n f r o m t h i s p a r t i c u l a r t e s t . I n t e r m s o f t h e r e q u i r e m e n t s o f H - D t h e o r y , t h e n , i t i s c l e a r t h a t R i k e r ' s t h e o r y o f p o l i t i c a l c o a l i t i o n s i s f a r f r o m a d e q u a t e . H o w e v e r , i t s h o u l d b e n o t e d t h a t i t i s m u c h m o r e a c c e p t a b l e t h a n , f o r i n s t a n c e , 1 1 6 t h e a r m s r a c e a n d d e t e r r e n c e m o d e l s d i s c u s s e d a b o v e . T h e m a j o r v i r t u e o f R i k e r ' s t h e o r y i s i t s e x p l i c i t n e s s . I t i s e x p l i c i t a b o u t i t s b a s i c a s s u m p t i o n s , i t s a x i o m s , a n d i t s h y p o t h e s e s . F u r t h e r , b y d i f f e r e n t i a t i n g b e t w e e n t h e s e t h r e e l e v e l s , i t f u l f i l l s B r a i t h w a i t e ' s r e q u i r e m e n t c o n -c e r n i n g t h e l e v e l s o f h y p o t h e s e s . I t i s a l s o e x p l i c i t a b o u t i t s i n t e r -p r e t a t i o n , n o t i n g p r e c i s e l y t h e t y p e o f e m p i r i c a l b e h a v i o r i t i s m e a n t t o b e a p p l i c a b l e t o . A d m i t t e d l y , t h i s g r e a t l y l i m i t s t h e p r o f e s s e d e m p i r i c a l s c o p e o f t h e t h e o r y , b u t a t l e a s t t h e b o u n d a r i e s a r e d i s t i n c t . F i n a l l y i t i s e x p l i c i t a b o u t i t s v e r i f i c a t i o n p r o c e d u r e s . S o m e w h a t i r o n i c a l l y , t h i s i s w h y i t i s r e l a t i v e l y e a s y t o s e e h o w t h o s e p r o c e d u r e s f a i l . O n t h e s e c o u n t s , t h e r e f o r e , R i k e r ' s t h e o r y s c o r e s h i g h i n t e r m s o f H - D r e q u i r e m e n t s . O n t h e o t h e r h a n d , h o w e v e r , t h e t h e o r y i s l a c k i n g i n s e v e r a l f u n d a m e n t a l r e s p e c t s , F i r s t i t c o n t a i n s f a r t o o m a n y i m p l i c i t a s s u m p -t i o n s , t h e i m p l i c a t i o n s o f w h i c h a r e n o t a d e q u a t e l y s p e l l e d o u t . T h u s , i n H e m p e l ' s t e r m i n o l o g y , t h e t h e o r y i s " e l l i p t i c a l . " T h i s i s e a s i l y c o r r e c t e d , o f c o u r s e , s i m p l y b y m a k i n g t h e i m p l i c i t a s s u m p t i o n s e x p l i c i t . A t a m o r e f u n d a m e n t a l l e v e l , t h e t h e o r y i s a l s o " p a r t i a l ; " t h a t i s , i t l e a d s t o t h e i n f e r e n c e o f a c l a s s o f e m p i r i c a l c a s e s r a t h e r t h a n t o a u n i q u e c a s e . A s w e h a v e s e e n , t h e e x a c t s i z e o f t h e m i n i m u m w i n n i n g c o a l i t i o n c a n n o t b e d e d u c e d f r o m t h e h y p o t h e s e s o f t h e t h e o r y . I n s t e a d , o n l y a c l a s s o f s u b - m a x i m a l c o a l i t i o n s c a n b e s o d e d u c e d . A s a r e s u l t , t h e c o n c e p t o f m i n i m u m w i n n i n g c o a l i t i o n c o m e s d a n g e r o u s l y c l o s e t o b e i n g a t a u t o l o g y ( t h e m i n i m u m w i n n i n g c o a l i t i o n i s t h a t c o a l i t i o n w h i c h i n f a c t t u r n s o u t t o b e m i n i m u m ) . I t f o l l o w s f r o m t h e p a r t i a l i t y o f t h e 1 1 7 t h e o r y t h a t i t i s n o t t r u l y d e d u c t i v e . T h u s , R i k e r i s f o r c e d t o e m p l o y e x t r a - l o g i c a l e v i d e n c e i n o r d e r t o j u s t i f y h i s s u p p o s e d l y d e d u c t i v e i n f e r -e n c e s . I n t h i s r e g a r d , h i s t h e o r y , l i k e g a m e t h e o r y , g a i n s i t s e m p i r i c a l p l a u s i b i l i t y a n d v a l u e i n j u s t t h o s e c o n t e x t s w h e r e i t s d e d u c t i v e c h a r a c -t e r i s t i c s a r e w e a k e s t . I n c o n c l u s i o n , t h e e x a m p l e o f R i k e r ' s T h e o r y o f P o l i t i c a l C o a l i - t i o n s a l l o w s u s t o m a k e s o m e g e n e r a l r e m a r k s a b o u t t h e r a t i o n a l i t y p r i n -c i p l e a n d t h e a p r o a c h b a s e d u p o n i t . T h e m a i n d i f f i c u l t y f a c e d b y t h i s a p p r o a c h i s w h a t w e h a v e a l r e a d y o b s e r v e d Y o u n g a l l u d i n g t o w i t h r e f e r -e n c e t o l o g i c a l m o d e l s i n g e n e r a l ; n a m e l y , t h e i r a p p l i c a b i l i t y t o p o l i -t i c a l b e h a v i o r i s p r o h i b i t i v e l y n a r r o w . O r , c o n v e r s e l y , w h a t i s d e f i n e d a s " p o l i t i c a l " i n t e r m s o f t h e r a t i o n a l i t y p r i n c i p l e i s o n l y a s m a l l f r a c t i o n o f t h e m y r i a d p h e n o m e n a w h i c h a r e o f i n t e r e s t t o p o l i t i c a l s c i e n t i s t s . T h i s n a r r o w n e s s p l a g u e s a l l t h e t h e o r i e s w e h a v e d i s c u s s e d i n t h i s s e c t i o n . A l t h o u g h w e c a n n o t h e r e e v a l u a t e t h e d e d u c t i v e e l e g a n c e o f e a c h o f t h e s e t h e o r i e s , w e c a n s a y w i t h s o m e a s s u r a n c e t h a t w h a t e v e r d e d u c t i v e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s t h e y e x h i b i t h a v e b e e n p u r c h a s e d a t t h e p r i c e • o f e m p i r i c a l r e l e v a n c e . T h i s i s p a r t i c u l a r l y d i s m a y i n g w h e n a t h e o r y a t r t e m p t s t o c l a i m a b r o a d e r r a n g e o f a p p l i c a b i l i t y t h a n i t c a n j u s t i f i a b l y a c c o u n t f o r . F o r e x a m p l e , R i k e r ' s t h e o r y o f c o a l i t i o n s i s i n t r o d u c e d i n a c h a p t e r e n t i t l e d " T h e P r o s p e c t o f a S c i e n c e o f P o l i t i c s . " T h u s , t h e . i m p l i c a t i o n i s t h a t t h i s t h e o r y i s s u c h a p r o s p e c t a n d t h a t i t c a n c o n -s t i t u t e t h e s c i e n c e o f p o l i t i c s a s a w h o l e . S u c h a n i m p l i c a t i o n , a s w e h a v e s e e n , i s i n n o w a y j u s t i f i a b l e . 118 B . D e d u c t i v e E x p l a n a t i o n A s a r e s u l t o f t h i s d i s c u s s i o n o f d e d u c t i v e t h e o r i e s i n i n t e r n a -t i o n a l p o l i t i c s , w e a r e n o w i n a p o s i t i o n t o s e e w h y t h e r e h a v e b e e n n o d e d u c t i v e e x p l a n a t i o n s p u t f o r t h i n t h e d i s c i p l i n e . T h e r e a s o n s a r e a c t u a l l y f a i r l y s i m p l e . W e s a w a b o v e t h a t , o n t h e d e d u c t i v e v i e w , t h e o r i e s e x p l a i n l a w s a n d l a w s e x p l a i n f a c t s . T h e w a y t h e o r i e s e x p l a i n l a w s i s b y t h e o r e t i c a l l y s u b s t a n t i a t i n g t h e m f r o m a b o v e a n d e m p i r i c a l l y s u b s t a n t i a t i n g t h e m f r o m b e l o w . A c c o r d i n g l y , a l a w i s r e g a r d e d a s b e i n g m o r e h i g h l y c o n f i r m e d t h e g r e a t e r i t s s u b s t a n t i a t i o n f r o m t h e s e t w o s o u r c e s . O n e o f t h e r e q u i r e m e n t s n e c e s s a r y f o r a l a w t o a d e q u a t e l y e x -p l a i n a s i n g l e p h e n o m e n o n i s t h a t i t b e t r u e . F o r t h e m o m e n t , l e t u s a v o i d t h e f u n d a m e n t a l p r o b l e m c o n c e r n i n g t h e t r u t h o f l a w s d i s c u s s e d i n s e c t i o n I I , a n d t a k e t h i s t o m e a n t h a t t h e l a w ' s l e v e l o f c o n f i r m a t i o n i s u n q u e s t i o n a b l y h i g h . I f t h e l a w i s v e r y h i g h l y c o n f i r m e d , t h e n , w e c a n t a k e a s y l l o g i s m f o r w h i c h i t a c t s a s a p r e m i s e t o b e a v i a b l e d e -d u c t i v e n o m o l o g i c a l e x p l a n a t i o n . F r o m o u r e x a m i n a t i o n o f d e d u c t i v e t h e o r i e s a v a i l a b l e i n i n t e r n a -t i o n a l p o l i t i c s , w e c a n c o n c l u d e t h a t n o h i g h l y c o n f i r m e d l a w s h a v e b e e n g e n e r a t e d . T h i s i s p r i m a r i l y b e c a u s e t h e t h e o r i e s t h e m s e l v e s a r e o f t e n n o t s t r i c t l y d e d u c t i v e ; i n w h i c h c a s e i t i s i m p o s s i b l e t o t e s t i n f e r r e d l a w s i n t h e r e q u i r e d f a s h i o n . I n t h e c a s e s w h e r e t h e t h e o r i e s a r e d e d u c t i v e , s u c h a s t h e a r m s r a c e m o d e l s , w e h a v e s e e n t h a t t h e y a r e p r e d i c t i v e l y w e a k , o r , t o p u t i t i n t h e s t r i c t e r t e r m i n o l o g y o f H - D t h e o r i e s , t h e y a r e e m p i r i c a l l y f a l s e . T h u s , t h e l a w s t h a t a r e d e d u c e d f r o m t h e m a r e a l s o f a l s e a n d h e n c e u n f i t a s p r e m i s e s f o r D - N e x p l a n a t i o n s . T h e r e f o r e , t h e r e a s o n s why t h e r e a r e n o a d e q u a t e D-N- e x p l a n a t i o n s o f i n t e r n a t i o n a l p h e n o m e n a a r e : ( 1 ) t h e r e a r e v e r y f e w l a w s a v a i l a b l e i n i n t e r n a t i o n a l p o l i t i c s a n d ( 2 ) t h o s e w h i c h a r e a v a i l a b l e a r e n o t s t r i c t l y t r u e , o r e v e n h i g h l y c o n f i r m e d . V . C O N C L U S I O N I n t h e p r e c e d i n g p a g e s , I h a v e a t t e m p t e d t o a n s w e r m o s t , i f n o t a l l , o f t h e q u e s t i o n s p u t f o r t h i n t h e i n t r o d u c t i o n . S i n c e t h e s e c o n c l u s i o n s h a v e b e e n e x p l i c i t l y s t a t e d t h r o u g h o u t t h e p a p e r , i t s e e m s u n n e c e s s a r y t o r e p e a t t h e m a l l , e s p e c i a l l y t h e m o r e s p e c i f i c o n e s , h e r e . We h a v e a l r e a d y s u m m a r i z e d many c o m p l e x a r g u m e n t s t o t h e i r l i m i t , I t h i n k , a n d t o f u r t h e r s e p a r a t e c o n c l u s i o n s f r o m t h e i n t r i c a t e a r g u m e n t s t h a t e n -g e n d e r e d t h e m a p p e a r s t o me t o b e c o u n t e r p r o d u c t i v e . A c c o r d i n g l y , t h e a r g u m e n t o f t h i s t h e s i s s t a n d s a s i t s own c o n c l u s i o n a n d t h i s f i n a l s e c t i o n w i l l m e r e l y a t t e m p t a b r i e f r e c a p i t u l a t i o n o f t h e m o r e g e n e r a l a n d i m p o r t a n t p o i n t s t h a t f o l l o w f r o m i t . ( 1 ) M o s t i m p o r t a n t l y , I b e l i e v e t h i s s t u d y h a s s h o w n t h a t p h i l o s o -p h y o f s c i e n c e i s a v a l u a b l e t o o l f o r e x a m i n i n g t h e u n d e r l y i n g a s s u m p -t i o n s o f d i f f e r e n t a p p r o a c h e s t o p o l i t i c a l s c i e n c e a n d i n t e r n a t i o n a l p o l i t i c s . B y g e t t i n g t o t h e r o o t s o f d e d u c t i v e f o r m a l i s m , we h a v e b e e n a b l e t o e v a l u a t e i t p r i o r t o i t s a p p l i c a t i o n t o p o l i t i c a l p h e n o m e n a , a n d , a s a r e s u l t , h a v e b e e n a b l e t o e x a m i n e i t s f u n d a m e n t a l s t r e n g t h s a n d w e a k n e s s e s s e p a r a t e l y f r o m t h e v e r y d i f f e r e n t t y p e s o f p r o b l e m s a s -s o c i a t e d w i t h i t s a p p l i c a t i o n t o a s p e c i f i c s u b j e c t m a t t e r . T h i s a n a l y t i c a l d i s t i n c t i o n h a s c o m b a t t e d c o n c e p t u a l c o n f u s i o n a n d g r e a t l y s i m p l i f i e d t h e d i f f i c u l t i e s i n h e r e n t i n a s t u d y w h i c h p r o c e e d s 120 s i m u l t a n e o u s l y o n s e v e r a l l e v e l s o f a n a l y s i s . A s u b s i d i a r y a s p e c t o f t h i s p o i n t i s t h a t t h e f o r m - c o n t e n t - c o n t e x t f r a m e w o r k a p p e a r s t o b e h e l p f u l i n d i f f e r e n t i a t i n g t h e v a r i o u s a p p r o a c h e s t o p h i l o s o p h y o f s c i e n c e . I n a m o r e a m b i t i o u s p r o j e c t , i t w o u l d b e i n -t e r e s t i n g t o e m p l o y t h i s f r a m e w o r k i n a n e x p l i c i t c o m p a r i s o n o f d i f f e r e n t a p p r o a c h e s i n r e l a t i o n t o t h e n e e d s o f p o l i t i c a l s c i e n c e . ( 2 ) I h o p e t h i s a n a l y s i s h a s s u c c e e d e d , a t t h e v e r y m i n i m u m , i n m a k i n g c l e a r t h a t s c i e n c e i s a p r o b l e m a t i c n o t i o n s u s c e p t i b l e t o m a n y i n t e r p r e t a t i o n s , a n d t h a t t h e c o r r e c t d e f i n i t i o n o f s c i e n c e o r t h e s c i -e n t i f i c m e t h o d s i m p l y d o n o t e x i s t . T o t h e e x t e n t t h a t t h e s e m y t h s h a v e b e e n e x p o s e d , t h i s t h e s i s s t a n d s a s a c o n t r i b u t i o n t o w a r d d i s c o u r a g i n g t h e u n f o r t u n a t e , a n d a l l t o o p r e v a l e n t , t e n d e n c y a m o n g p o l i t i c a l s c i e n -t i s t s t o l o o k f o r q u i c k a n d s i m p l e s o l u t i o n s t o c o m p l e x m e t h o d o l o g i c a l o r e p i s t e m o l o g i c a l p r o b l e m s w i t h i n t h e p a g e s o f o n e o r t w o w e l l - r e g a r d e d p h i l o s o p h y o f s c i e n c e t e x t s . T h e w o r l d , I h o p e I h a v e s h o w n , i s m o r e c o m p l i c a t e d t h a n t h a t . . . , O n t h e o t h e r h a n d , I h o p e t h i s s t u d y w i l l n o t b e i n t e r p e r t e d a s i m -p l y i n g t h a t p h i l o s o p h y o f s c i e n c e c a n s o l v e a l l o u r p r o b l e m s i n p o l i t i c a l s c i e n c e . O n t h e c o n t r a r y , I h a v e t r i e d t o m a k e i t c l e a r f r o m t h e b e g i n n i n g t h a t i t i s t h e e m p i r i c a l c o n t e n t o f t h e p o l i t i c a l w o r l d w h i c h m u s t d i c t a t e m e t h o d o l o g i c a l i n n o v a t i o n . P h i l o s o p h y o f s c i e n c e i s o n l y o f v a l u e t o t h e d e g r e e t h a t i t i l l u m i n a t e s t h i s p r o c e s s . ( 3 ) T u r n i n g t o s o m e w h a t l e s s g e n e r a l i s s u e s , w e h a v e n o t e d c o n -s i d e r a b l e e v i d e n c e i n s e c t i o n I I t h a t t h e c o n c e p t i o n o f s c i e n c e a s d e -d u c t i v e f o r m a l i s m i s b e s e t b y m a n y m o r e d i f f i c u l t i e s t h a n o n e w o u l d b e 121 l e d t o b e l i e v e b y e x a m i n i n g t h e d e d u c t i v e l i t e r a t u r e i n s o c i a l o r p o l i -t i c a l s c i e n c e . T h i s c o n c l u s i o n l e n d s c r e d e n c e t o G u n n e l l ' s f i r s t a s s e r -t i o n t h a t t h e d e d u c t i v e m o d e l s a r e i n d e e d " c o n t r o v e r s i a l " a n d s u b j e c t t o s e r i o u s o b j e c t i o n s w i t h i n p h i l o s o p h y o f s c i e n c e . A l t h o u g h t h e r e i s n o n e e d t o r e h a s h t h e s p e c i f i c o b j e c t i o n s h e r e , I w o u l d l i k e t o n o t e t h a t t h e c r i t i c i s m c o n c e r n i n g t h e c o n t r a d i c t o r y v i e w s o f l a w s i n H - D t h e o r i e s a n d D - N e x p l a n a t i o n s , u n l i k e a l l t h e o t h e r c r i t i c i s m s , i s n o t b r o u g h t o u t i n a n y o f t h e c r i t i q u e s o f d e d u c t i v i s n I h a v e c o n s u l t e d i n w r i t i n g t h i s p a p e r . A s a r e s u l t , I r e g a r d i t a s m o r e t e n u o u s t h a n t h e o t h e r s , a n d f e e l i t w o u l d p r o f i t f r o m f u r t h e r c a r e f u l a n a l y s i s a t s o m e f u t u r e t i m e . ( 4 ) T h e m o s t t e l l i n g a r g u m e n t a g a i n s t t h e u s e o f d e d u c t i v e f o r m -a l i s m a s a m o d e l f o r a s c i e n c e o f i n t e r n a t i o n a l p o l i t i c s , I t h i n k , i s n o t a p r o d u c t o f t h e m a n y c r i t i c i s m s t h a t c a n b e p u t a g a i n s t i t . R a t h e r , i t r e s u l t s f r o m a p r o p e r t y i n t r i n s i c t o t h e a p p r o a c h a n d w e l l a c c e p t e d b y i t s p h i l o s o p h i c a l a d h e r e n t s . T h i s i s t h a t t h e d e d u c t i v e m o d e l s a r e n o t m e a n t t o r e f l e c t h o w s c i e n t i s t s a c t u a l l y f o r m u l a t e o r i m p l e m e n t t h e i r t h e o r e t i c a l a n d e x p l a n a t o r y a c c o u n t s . A s h a s b e e n e m p h a s i z e d t i m e a n d a g a i n b y H e m p e l a n d o t h e r s , t h e m o d e l s a r e u n c o n c e r n e d w i t h m e t h o d o l o g i c a l o r p r o c e d u r a l c o n s i d e r a t i o n s . A s a r e s u l t , t h e i r u s e a s p r e s c r i p t i v e s c h e m a t a f o r i n t e r n a t i o n a l p o l i t i c s m u s t b e n u g a t o r y . W h e n t h i s f a c t h a s b e e n i g n o r e d , a s b y H o l t a n d R i c h a r d s o n , i t h a s l e d t o p a r t i c u l a r l y u n p a l a t a b l e c o n c l u s i o n s . ( 5 ) T h e d i s c u s s i o n i n s e c t i o n I I I s e e m s t o a t t e s t t o t h e a c c u r a c y o f G u n n e l l ' s s e c o n d a s s e r t i o n t h a t p o l i t i c a l s c i e n t i s t s d o n o t f u l l y 122 u n d e r s t a n d t h e d e d u c t i v e m o d e l s a n d t h e i r p h i l o s o p h i c a l i m p l i c a t i o n s . I n l i g h t o f t h e s t u d y a s a w h o l e , w e c a n c o n c l u d e f r o m t h i s t h a t i t w o u l d p r o b a b l y n o t b e o f m u c h v a l u e t o c o n c e n t r a t e o n a p p l y i n g a m o r e a c c u r a t e v i e w o f t h e m o d e l s t o i n t e r n a t i o n a l p o l i t i c s o r p o l i t i c a l s c i -e n c e . A m o r e p r o f i t a b l e c o u r s e w o u l d p r o b a b l y i n v o l v e i n t e n s i f y i n g t h e s e a r c h f o r v i a b l e a l t e r n a t i v e c o n c e p t i o n s o f s c i e n c e t h a t r e f l e c t m o r e c l o s e l y t h e e p i s t e m o l o g i c a l c o n c e r n s o f t h e d i s c i p l i n e . (6 ) T h e m a i n p o i n t b r o u g h t o u t b y t h e a n a l y s i s i n s e c t i o n I V i s t h a t t h e a t t e m p t t o i m p l e m e n t d e d u c t i v e t h e o r i e s o f i n t e r n a t i o n a l p o l i -t i c s h a s s u f f e r e d p r i m a r i l y f r o m a l a c k o f e m p i r i c a l r e l e v a n c e . A s a r e s u l t , t h e s e t h e o r i e s h a v e b e e n d e f e n d e d i n t e r m s o f t h e i r h e u r i s t i c r a t h e r t h a n t h e i r f o r m a l v a l u e . T h i s p r a g m a t i c f a i l i n g o f t h e d e d u c t -i v e a p p r o a c h i s i n m a n y w a y s c o m p l e m e n t a r y t o i t s p h i l o s o p h i c a l f a i l i n g s d i s c u s s e d i n s e c t i o n I I . O n c e a g a i n , t h e s t u d y a s a w h o l e h a s s h o w n t h a t t h e b e s t r e s p o n s e t o t h i s i s n o t t o e x p e n d m o r e e n e r g y i n a t t e m p t -i n g t o c o m b i n e l o g i c a l r i g o r a n d e m p i r i c a l b r e a d t h . A l l . t h e e v i d e n c e w e h a v e . e x a m i n e d s e e m s t o s u p p o r t H a n s o n c l a i m t h a t t h e t w o a r e i n -v e r s e l y r e l a t e d . T h u s , i n p o l i t i c a l r e s e a r c h w e s h o u l d s t r i v e n o t t o a c h i e v e b o t h m a x i m u m r i g o r a n d m a x i m u m b r e a d t h , b u t t o b a l a n c e t h e m a s s k i l l f u l l y a s p o s s i b l e i n l i g h t o f w h a t e v e r p r o b l e m i s u n d e r c o n s i d e r a t i o n . 123 V I . FOOTNOTES " N e w Y o r k , A l f r e d A . K n o p f , 1 9 5 3 . 2 I n i n t e r n a t i o n a l p o l i t i c s , t h i s i s t h e s e c o n d c o n t r o v e r s y t o b e d u b b e d a ' G r e a t D e b a t e 1 . T h e f i r s t , w h i c h r e a c h e d a p e a k i n t h e l a t e 1 9 4 0 s , i n v o l v e d t h e r e l a t i v e m e r i t s o f r e a l i s m a n d i d e a l i s m a s c r i t e r i a f o r g u i d i n g a n d e v a l u a t i n g f o r e i g n p o l i c y . S e e e s p e c i a l l y H a n s . J . M o r g e n -t h a u , " A n o t h e r ' G r e a t D e b a t e ' : T h e N a t i o n a l I n t e r e s t o f t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s , " A m e r i c a n P o l i t i c a l S c i e n c e : r e v i e w , v o l . 5 7 , n o . 4 ( D e c e m b e r 1 9 5 2 ) , p p . 9 6 1 - 8 8 . T h e d e g r e e t o w h i c h t h i s e a r l i e r d e b a t e w a s c o n c e r n e d w i t h a c t u a l p o l i c y f o r m u l a t i o n c a n b e c o n t r a s t e d t o t h e m u c h l e s s " p o l i c y r e l e v a n t " * n a t u i j e o f p r e s e n t o n e t h r o u g h o u t t h e 1 9 5 0 s a n d 1 9 6 0 s . T h e r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n t h e o r y a n d p r a c t i c e , i s n o w o n c e a g a i n b e c o m i n g p r o m i n e n t , h o w e v e r , a n d t h e i m a g i n a t i v e o b s e r v e r c a n n o t e t h e w e d d i n g o f t h e t w o d e b a t e s i n s u c h v o l u m e s a s R a y m o n d T a n t e r a n d R i c h a r d U l l m a n , E d s . , T h e o r y a n d P o l i c y  I n I n t e r n a t i o n a l R e l a t i o n s , P r i n c e t o n , P r i n c e t o n U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1 9 7 2 . 3 S e e , e . g . , E a s t o n , o p . c i t . ; D a v i d T r u m a n , " T h e I m p a c t o n P o l i t i c a l S c i e n c e o f t h e R e v o l u t i o n i n t h e B e h a v i o r a l S c i e n c e s , " i n R e s e a r c h F r o n t i e r s  i n P o l i t i c s a n d G o v e r n m e n t , E d s . S B a i l e y e t a l . , W a s h i n g t o n , T h e B r o o k i n g s I n s t i t u t e , 1 9 5 5 ; H e r b e r t S t o r i n g , E d . , E s s a y s o n t h e S c i e n t i f i c  S t u d y o f P o l i t i c s . New Y o r k , H o l t , R i n e h a r t , a n d W i n s t o n , 1 9 6 2 . W i t h s p e c i a l r e f e r e n c e t o i n t e r n a t i o n a l p o l i t i c s , s e e K l a u s K n o r r a n d J a m e s R o s e r a u , E d s . , C o n t e n d i n g A p p r o a c h e s t o I n t e r n a t i o n a l . P o l i t i c s , P r i n c e t o n , P r i n c e t o n U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1 9 6 9 , e s p e c i a l l y a r t i c l e s b y H e d l e y B u l l , " I n t e r n a t i o n a l T h e o r y : T h e C a s e f o r t h e C l a s s i c a l A p p r o a c h , " a n d M o r t o n A . K a p l a n , " T h e New G r e a t D e b a t e : T r a d i t i o n v s . S c i e n c e i n I n t e r n a t i o n a l R e l a t i o n s . " S e e , e . g . , D a v i d E a s t o n , " T h e New R e v o l u t i o n i n P o l i t i c a l S c i e n c e , " A m e r i c a n P o l i t i c a l S c i e n c e R e v i e w , v o l . 6 3 , n o . 4 ( D e c e m b e r 1 9 6 9 ) , p p . 1 0 5 1 -6 1 ; C h a r l e s A . M c C o y a n d J o h n P l a y f o r d , E d s . , A p o l i t i c a l P o l i t i c s : A  C r i t i q u e o f B e h a v i o r a l i s m , New Y o r k , T h o m a s Y . C r o w e l l C o . , 1 9 6 7 ; S h e l d o n W o l i n , " P o l i t i c a l T h e o r y a s a V o c a t i o n , " A m e r i c a n P o l i t i c a l S c i e n c e R e v i e w , v o l . 6 3 , n o . 4 ( D e c e m b e r 1 9 6 9 ) , p p . 1 0 6 2 - 8 2 . A ' p o s t - b e h a v i o r a l ' l i t e r a t u r e a i m e d d i r e c t l y a t i n t e r n a t i o n a l p o l i t i c s h a s n o t a p p e a r e d a s y e t . S e e , h o w -e v e r M a r s h a l l W i n d m i l . l e r , " T h e New A m e r i c a n M a n d a r i n ? * . , " T h e D i s s e n t i n g  A c a d e m y , E d . T h e o d o r e R o s z a k , New Y o r k , R a n d o m H o u s s , 1 9 6 7 , f o r p o s s i b l e d i r e c t i o n s o f a t t a c k . 5Thi3 l i t e r a t u r e i s a m a j o r s o u r c e f o r s o m e o f t h e i d e a s t o be d e v -e l o p e d i n Shis t h e s i s . S e e , e s p e c i a l l y , M.W. J a c k s o n , " T h e A p p l i c a t i o n o f M e t h o d i n the C o n s t r u c t i o n o f P o l i t i c a l S c i e n c e T n e o r y , " C a n a d i a n J o u r n a l  o f P o l i t i c a l S c i e n c e , v o l . 5 , n o . 3 ( S e p t e m b e r 1 9 7 2 ) , p p . 4 0 2 - 1 7 ; P a u l F . K r e s s , " O n M e t h o d i n S c i e n c e : A R e p l y t o J a c k s o n , " a n d J a c k s o n ' s r e j o i n d e r , " W o r d s a n d t h e W o r l d : K r e s s a n d Some D o g m a s o f P r a g m a t i s m , " C a n a d i a n  J o u r n a l o f P o l i t i c a l S c i e n c e , v o l . 7 , n o . 1 ( M a r c h 1 9 7 2 ) , p p . 1 4 3 - 5 4 ; J o h n G u n n e l l , " D e d u c t i o - a , E x p l a n a t i o n , a n d S o c i a l S c i e n t i f i c I n q u i r y , " A m e r i c a n 1 2 4 P o l i t i c a l S c i e n c e R e v i e w , v o l . 6 3 , n o . 4 ( D e c e m b e r 1 9 6 9 ) , p p . 1 2 3 3 - 4 6 ; r e s p o n s e s b y A r t h u r S . G o l d b e r g , A . J a m e s G r e g o r , a n d G u n n e l l ' s r e j o i n d e r , i b i d . , p p . 1 2 4 7 - 6 2 ; E u g e n e F . M i l l e r , " P o s i t i v i s m , H i s t o r i c i s m , a n d P o l i -t i c a l I n q u i r y , " A m e r i c a n P o l i t i c a l S c i e n c e R e v i e w , v o l . 6 6 , n o . 3 ( S e p t e m -b e r 1 9 7 2 ) , p p . 7 9 6 - 8 1 7 ; r e s p o n s e s b y D a v i d B r a y b r o o k e a u d A l e x a n d e r R o s e n -b e r g , R i c h a r d R u d n e r , M a r t i n L a n d a u , a n d M i l l e r ' s r e j o i n d e r , i b i d . , p p . 8 1 8 - 7 3 . ^ R a d i c a l , o r , t o u s e a n o t h e r n e o l o g i s m , m e t a - p o l i t i c a l a n a l y s i s h a s c e r t a i n l y n o t b e e n m e t w i t h i n d i f f e r e n c e b y t h e v a r i o u s c o m b a t a n t s . T h e r e a d e r h a s m e r e l y t o n o t e t h e v i t u p e r a t i v e e d g e e v i d e n t i n t h e a b o v e t w o s y m p o s i a i n o r d e r t o g e t a f e e l i n g f o r t h e r e a c t i o n . S u c h a r e s p o n s e u s u a l l y m e a n s t h a t a t l e a s t s o m e s e n s i t i v e n e r v e s h a v e b e e n t o u c h e d . T o n o t e s o m e e x a m p l e s o f r a d i c a l a n a l y s i s : f o u r b o o k s w h i c h I f e e l h a v e b e e n i m p o r t a n t , i f n o t c o m p l e t e l y s u c c e s s f u l i l l u s t r a t i o n s a r e F l o y d W. M a t s o n , T h e B r o k e n I m a g e , New Y o r k , G e o r g e B r a z i l l e r , 1 9 6 4 ; A . R . L o u c h , E x p l a n a - t i o n a n d Human A c t i o n , B e r k e l e y a n d L o s A n g e l e s , U n i v e r s i t y o f C a l i f o r n i a P r e s s , 1 9 6 6 ; H e n r y K a r i e l , O p e n S y s t e m s , I t a s c a , 1 1 1 . , P s a c o c k , 1 9 6 9 ; a n d T h o m a s L . T h o r s o n , B i o p o l i t i c s , New Y o r k , H o l t , R i n e h a r t a n d W i n s t o n , 1 9 7 0 . ^M.W. J a c k s o n , " T o w a r d s a S c i e n c e o f P o l i t i c s , " p a p e r p r e s e n t e d t o t h e 4 3 r d A n n u a l M e e t i n g o f t h e C a n a d i a n P o l i t i c a l S c i e n c e A s s o c i a t i o n , S t . J o h n s , 1 9 7 1 , p . 7 5 . E r n a n M c M u l l i n , " T h e H i s t o r y a n d P h i l o s o p h y o f S c i e n c e : A T a x o n o m y , " i n M i n n e s o t a S t u d i e s i n t h e P h i l o s o p h y o f S c i e n c e : V o l . 5 , H i s t o r i c a l a n d  P h i l o s o p h i c a l P e r s p e c t i v e s o n S c i e n c e , E d . R. S t u e w e r , M i n n e a p o l i s , U n i v e r -s i t y o f M i n n e s o t a P r e s s , 1 9 7 0 , p . 3 1 . 9 I b i d . , p p . 1 5 - 1 6 . " ^ T h i e f o l l o w i n g t h r e e p a r a g r a p h s l e a n h e a v i l y o n i b i d . , p p . 2 3 - 2 9 . ^ I b i d . , p . 6 0 , e m p h a s i s i n o r i g i n a l . 1 2 A n e x a m i n a t i o n o f t h e e p i s t e m o l o g i c a l d i f f i c u l t i e s t o w h i c h t h i s a p p r o a c h i s s u s c e p t i b l e w o u l d m a k e a n I n t e r e s t i n g t h e s i s i n i t s e l f . U n -f o r t u n a t e l y , s u c h a n a n a l y s i s i s o u t s i d e t h e s c o p e o f t h i s e s s a y . T h i s may l e a d t h e r e a d e r t o t h e e r r o n e o u s a s s u m p t i o n t h a t t h e h i s t o r i c a l a p -p r o a c h i s t h e " h e r o " o f t h i s a n a l y s i s , w h i l e t h e l o g i c a l a p p r o a c h i s t h e " v i l l a i n . " A l t h o u g h t h e . l a t t e r p a r t i s p r o b a b l y a f a i r i n t e r p r e t a t i o n , t h e f o r m e r i s m o r e q u e s t i o n a b l e . A f e w b r i e f p o i n t s c a n b e m a d e h e r e : , . W h e r e a s t h e " t r a g i c . f l a w " o f l o g i c a l a n a l y s i s i s a p r i o r i s m , t h a t o f h i s t o r i c a l a n a l y s i s i s r e l a t i v i s m . T h e f i r s t g i v e s u s r u l e s o f c o n d u c t , b u t why , s h o u l d w e b e l i e v e t h e m ? . T h e s e c o n d i s e x t r e m e l y v a l u a b l e f o r ' f a l s i f y i n g l o g i c a l p r e s c r i p t i o n s , b y s h o w i n g t h e i r i n a p p l i c a b i l i t y t o s c i e n c e a s i t i s p r a c t i c e d , b u t how c a n i t v e r i f y i t s o w n . p r e s c r i p t i o n s a b o u t " s u c c e s s f u l " s c i e n t i f i c p r a c t i c e ? How c a n d i f f e r e n t h i s t o r i c a l e p i s o d e s b e c o m p a r e d w i t h o u t r e s o r t i n g t o t r a n s - h i s t o r i c a l , a p r i o r i , . 1 2 5 p r i n c i p l e s o f s u c c e s s a n d f a i l u r e . T h e a n s w e r s a r e n o t s i m p l e . T h u s , i n t h i s t h e s i s t h e " w h i t e h a t " w i l l b e a s s i g n e d t o h i s t o r i c a l a n a l y s i s o n l y i n i t s c r i t i c a l r o l e , n o t i n i t s p r e s c r i p t i v e r o l e . F o r a g o o d s u m -m a r y o f t h e s e i s s u e s , s e e M i l l e r , o p . c i t . , e s p . p p . 8 0 6 - 1 7 ; a n d M a r t i n L a n d a u , " C o m m e n t : O n O b j e c t i v i t y , " A m e r i c a n P o l i t i c a l S c i e n c e R e v i e w , v o l . 6 6 , n o . 3 ( S e p t e m b e r 1 9 7 2 ) , p p . 8 4 6 - 5 6 , e s p . p p . 8 4 8 - 4 9 . F o r a s o l u t i o n , s e e S t e p h e n T o u l m i n , Human U n d e r s t a n d i n g , P r i n c e t o n , P r i n c e t o n U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1 9 7 2 . 1 3 J o h n G . G u n n e l l , " S o c i a l S c i e n c e a n d P o l i t i c a l R e a l i t y : T h e P r o b l e m o f E x p l a n a t i o n , " S o c i a l R e s e a r c h , v o l . 3 5 , n o . 1 ( S p r i n g 1 9 6 8 ) , p . 1 6 3 . 14 M i l l e r , o p . c i t . , p p . 8 6 1 - 6 2 . ^ A b r a h a m K a p l a n , T h e C o n d u c t o f I n q u i r y , S a n F r a n c i s c o , C h a n d l e r P u b l i s h i n g C o . , 1 9 6 4 , p . 4 . ^ S t e p h e n T o u l m i n h a s m o s t t h o r o u g h l y a n d e x p l i c i t l y d e a l t w i t h t h e s e t w o s p e c i f i c p r o b l e m s , e s p e c i a l l y i n Human U n d e r s t a n d i n g . T h e y a r e o f c o u r s e , h i g h l y i n t e r r e l a t e d . O n " r e a s o n s , " s e e p p . 2 2 2 - 4 2 ; o n " c a u s e s , " p p . 2 4 2 - 6 0 ; a n d o n t h e r e l a t i v e r o l e s o f i n t e r n a l a n d e x t e r n a l f a c t o r s , p p . 2 0 0 - 2 2 . T h e s e s u b j e c t s a r e a l s o c o n s i d e r e d , i f l e s s t h o r o u g h l y b y o t h e r p h i l o s o p h e r s o f s c i e n c e o f v a r i o u s p e r s u a s i o n s . S e e e s p e c i a l l y T h o m a s K u h n , T h e S t r u c t u r e o f S c i e n t i f i c R e v o l u t i o n s , 2 n d e d . , e n l a r g e d , C h i c a g o , U n i v e r s i t y o f C h i c a g o P r e s s , 1 9 7 0 , C h s . V - I X ; C a r l G . H e m p e l , A s p e c t s o f  S c i e n t i f i c E x p l a n a t i o n , New Y o r k , T h e F r e e P r e s s , 1 9 6 5 , p p . 4 2 5 - 3 2 , 4 6 3 - 8 6 ; P a u l F e y e r a b e n d , " C o n s o l a t i o n s f o r t h e S p e c i a l i s t , " i n C r i t i c i s m a n d t h e  G r o w t h o f K n o w l e d g e , E d s . I m r e L a k a t o s a n d A l a n M u s g r a v e , C a m b r i d g e , C a m b r i d g e U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1 9 7 0 . 17„ 7 T o u l m i n , o p . c i t . , p . 1 3 0 . 1 8 M i l l e r , o p . c i t . , p . 8 6 2 . 1 9 I b i d . 2 0 G u n n e l l , " D e d u c t i o n , E x p l a n a t i o n , a n d S o c i a l S c i e n t i f i c I n q u i r y , " p . 1 2 3 3 . 2 1 G u n n e l l , " S o c i a l S c i e n c e a n d P o l i t i c a l R e a l i t y , " p . 1 6 7 . 2 2 K a p l a n , o p . c i t . , p . 3 . 2 3 I b i d . , p . 8 . 2 4 I b i d . , p p . 8 - 9 . 2 5 I b i d . , p . 1 0 , e m p h a s i s i n o r i g i n a l . 1 2 6 2 6 I b i d . , p . 1 1 . 2 7 A l t h o u g h e s s e n t i a l l y c r i t i c a l , t h i s s t u d y w i l l h o p e f u l l y b e a t l e a s t i m p l i c i t l y c o n s t r u c t i v e . When we p o i n t o u t t h a t t h e d e d u c t i v e f o r m a l i s t c o n c e p t i o n o f s c i e n c e f a i l s t o come t o g r i p s w i t h c e r t a i n c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f i n t e r n a t i o n a l p o l i t i c s , w e w i l l i n e f f e c t b e s t a t i n g a r e q u i r e m e n t t h a t a n a d e q u a t e c o n c e p t i o n o f s c i e n c e w i l l h a v e t o f u l f i l l . T h u s , b e h i n d e v e r y c r i t i c i s m i s a n i m p l i c i t r e c o m m e n d a t i o n . T h e p o s i t i v e s t a t e m e n t o f t h e s e r e c o m m e n d a t i o n s m u s t a w a i t a f u t u r e s t u d y , h o w e v e r . 2 8 A t t h e r i s k o f p r e s s i n g w h a t m i g h t a l r e a d y a p p e a r a n o b v i o u s p o i n t , I w o u l d l i k e t o e m p h a s i z e t h e p e r i p h e r a l r e l a t i o n s h i p o f t h e s e t w o c h a r -a c t e r i s t i c s t o t h e p r a c t i c e o f s c i e n c e . K a p l a n , I n d i s c u s s i n g a s i m i l a r i s s u e , n o t e s a n a n a l o g y t o b a s e b a l l . T h e g o a l o f b a s e b a l l i s w i n n i n g , * a n d t h e g o a l i s p u r s u e d b y s c o r i n g r u n s w h e n y o u a r e b a t t i n g a n d p r e v e n t i n g t h e m w h e n y o u a r e i n t h e f i e l d . T o s a y t h i s i s t o s a y n o t h i n g a b o u t t h e d i f f e r e n t w a y s o f p i t c h i n g , h i t t i n g , o r r u n n i n g b a s e s ; w a y s o f f i e l d i n g ; m a n a g e r i a l s t r a t e g i e s f o r p i n c h r u n n e r s a n d h i t t e r s ; w a y s o f s i g n a l l i n g , c o a c h i n g , o r m a i n t a i n i n g t e a m s p i r i t . I t m e r e l y d e l i m i t s t h e b o u n d a r i e s w i t h i n w h i c h t h e s e a c t i v i t i e s a n d s t r a t e g i e s g o o n . T h u s , c a l l i n g e x -p l a n a t i o n t h e " e s s e n c e " o f s c i e n c e i s a s e m p t y a s c a l l i n g w i n n i n g t h e " e s s e n c e " o f b a s e b a l l . K a p l a n , o p . c i t . , p . 2 7 . 2 9 O n e x p l a n a t i o n a s a g o a l o f s c i e n c e , s e e , e . g . , E r n e s t N a g e l , " T h e N a t u r e a n d A i m o f S c i e n c e , " i n P h i l o s o p h y o f S c i e n c e T o d a y , E d . S i d n e y M o r g e n b e s s e r , New Y o r k , B a s i c B o o k s , I n c . , 1 9 6 7 , p . 5 ; E u g e n e M e e h a n , T h e T h e o r y a n d M e t h o d o f P o l i t i c a l A n a l y s i s , H o m e w o o d , 1 1 1 . , D o r s e y P r e s s . B 6 5 , p . 8 8 ; T o u l m i n , o p . c i t . , p . 3 6 4 ; H e m p e l , A s p e c t s o f S c i e n t i f i c E x p l a n a t i o n , p p . 3 3 3 - 3 4 . 3 0 S e e , e . g . , N a g e l , o p . c i t . , p p . 3 - 4 ; H e m p e l , o p . c i t . , p . 3 3 3 . 3 1 T h e s e c a t e g o r i e s b e a r a f a m i l y r e s e m b l a n c e t o t h e f a m i l i a r t h r e e d i m e n s i o n s o f s i g n s o r l o g i c a l s p a c e ; s y n t a x o r s i g n d e s i g n , s e m a n t i c s o r m e a n i n g , a n d e p i s t e m o l o g i c a l s t a t u s o r j u s t i f i c a t i o n . T h e s i m i l a r i t y i s m o r e t h a n a c o i n c i d e n c e , b u t l e s s t h a n a n i s o m o r p h i s m . O n e p a r t o f t h e f o r m o f a n e x p l a n a t i o n i s t h e a n a l y t i c o r s y n t h e t i c f o r m o f e a c h o f i t s s t a t e m e n t s . L i k e w i s e , o n e p a r t o f t h e c o n t e n t i s t h e c o n t i n g e n t o r n o n - c o n t i n g e n t s t a t u s o f t h e t r u t h o f i t s s t a t e m e n t s ; a n d o n e p a r t o f t h e c o n t e x t c o n c e r n s w h e t h e r t h e s t a t e m e n t s a r e j u s t i f i e d a p r i o r i o r a_ p o s t e r i o r i . B u t e a c h c a t e g o r y i n v o l v e s m a n y o t h e r c o n s i d e r a t i o n s a s w e l l , a s w i l l b e c o m e c l e a r a s t h e a n a l y s i s d e v e l o p s . O n " s i g n s , " s e e C . W . M o r r i s , S i g n s , L a n g u a g e a n d B e h a v i o r , New Y o r k , P r e n t i c e - H a l l , I n c . , 1 9 4 6 ; o n l o g i c a l s p a c e , s e e N . R . H a n s o n , O b s e r v a t i o n a n d E x p l a n a t i o n : A G u i d e  t o P h i l o s o p h y o f S c i e n c e , New Y o r k , H a r p e r a n d R o w , 1 9 7 1 , p p . 4 9 - 5 2 . 3 2 O n t h e r o l e o f t h e o r y i n m a k i n g e x p l a n a t i o n s c o m p r e h e n s i b l e , s e e , e . g . , W i l l a r d C . H u m p h r e y s , A n o m a l i e s a n d S c i e n t i f i c T h e o r i e s , S a n F r a n -c i s c o , F r e e m a n , C o p p e r , a n d C o . , 1 9 6 8 , p . 1 0 6 ; M e e h a n , o p . c i t . , p p . 1 2 8 -2 9 ; K a p l a n , o p . c i t . , p . 3 0 2 ; N . R . H a n s o n , P a t t e r n s o f D i s c o v e r y , C a m -b r i d g e , C a m b r i d g e U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1 9 6 1 , p p . 7 0 - 7 1 . 127 33 Hans Relchenbach, Experience and Prediction, Chicago, University of Chicago Press, 1938, p. 6. 34 Reichenbach, The Rise of Scientific Philosophy, Los Angeles and Berkeley, University of California Piess, 1966, p. 231. 35 Hanson, Patterns of Discovery. See also Hanson, "Logical Positivism and the Interpretation of Scientific Theories," i n The Legacy of Logical  Posit!vlsm, Ed. Peter Achinstein and Stephen F. Barker, Baltimore, The Johns Hopkins Press, 1969, pp. 57-84. ^Kaplan, op. c i t . , p. 7. 37 See, e.g., the discussion i n Richard Rudner, Philosophy of Social Science, Englewood C l i f f s , N.J., Prentice-Hall, Inc., 1966, pp. 7-8.. ^Hempel, Aspects of Scientific Explanation, p. 384. A second logical operation, called modus toHens, also achieves the deductive link. In this case, we are given the Information ' i f D then P' and 'not D'. From this we can logically deduce 'not P'. Thus, whereas modus ponens reasons from a positive conclusion, modus tollens reasons from a negative one. For a comprehensive source on deductive argumentation, see Irving M. Copi, Symbolic Logic, 2nd ed., New York, Macmillan Co., 1965. 39 May Brodbeck, "Explanation, Prediction, and 'Imperfect' Knowledge," i n Minnesota Studies i n the Philosophy of Science: Vol. 3, Scientific  Explanation, Space and Time, Eds. Herbert Felgl and Grover Maxwell, Min-neapolis, University of Minnesota Press, 1962, p. 239, emphasis i n original. See also, e.g., Hempel, "Inductive Inconsistencies," i n Aspects of Scientific  Explanation, pp. 60-61. 40 Hempel, Aspects of Scientific Explanation, p. 412. 41 Ernest Nagel, The Structure of Science, New York, Harcourt, Brace, and World, 1961, p. 11. 4 2Mlchael Scriven, "Logical Positivism and the Behavioral Sciences," in Achinstein and Barker, Eds., op. c i t . , p. 197, emphasis i n original. 43 Several excellent introductions to the logical p o s i t i v i s t movement are available. See, e.g., Achinstein and Barker, Eds., op. c i t . , especially the a r t i c l e by Herbert Feigl, "The Origin and Sp i r i t of Logical Positivism;" A.J. Ayer, Ed., Logical Positivism, Glencoe, 111., The Free Press, 1959, especially Ayer's "Introduction;" J.O. Ormson, Philosophical Analysis, Oxford, Clarendon Press, 1956; Paul A. Schilpp, Ed., The Philosophy of  Rudolf Carnap, La Salle, 111., Open Court, 1963; Victor Kraft, The Vienna  Circle, trans. Arthur Pap, New York, Philosophical Library, 1953; and Joergen Joergensen, The Development of Logical Empiricism, Chicago, Univer-sity of Chicago Press, 1951. 128 44 Carl G. Hempel and Paul Oppenheim, "The Logic of Explanation," Philosophy of Science, vol. 15 (1948), pp. 135-75; reprinted in Aspects  of Scientific Explanation as "Studies in the Logic of Explanation," pp. 245-90. 45 The main revision has been the addition of a logically distinct class of complete scientific explanations — inductive and deductive statistical explanations — in the early 1960s. This addition is meant to f i l l the obvious gap in the model concerning statistical explanation, which is used quite extensively in all the sciences, physical as well as social. It constitutes in one respect a concession on Hempel's part in that it retracts his earlier position that al l explanation in science must be deductive. On the other hand, the new statistical model is in-timately tied to the original model in that, although not deductive, i t is s t i l l explanation under subsumption of covering laws. The difference is that these laws are of the form "the probability that A is B, is p," rather than the nomological form "all A's are B's." This difference has important implications, but, unfortunately, I will be able to say little about them in this thesis. Some aspects of the critique of D-N ex-planation will also apply to statistical explanation, such as those deal-ing with the adequacy of covering laws in guaranteeing complete explana-tions. But many others will be inapplicable and it appears that a satis-factory account of statistical explanation would, quite simply, require another paper. For Hempel's treatment of statistical explanation, see "Deductive-Nomological vs. Statistical Explanation," Minnesota Studies  in the Philosophy of Sciencet Vol. 3, pp. 98-169; and Aspects of Sci- entific Explanation, pp. 376-412. 46 It might be worthwhile to note here that D-N explanation is not synonymous with causal explanation, as many proponents of a deductive ap-proach to social science seem to believe. Hempel points out that: Causal explanation in its various degrees of ex-plicitness and precision is not...the only mode of explanation on which the D-N model has a bearing. For example, the explanation of a general law by deductive subsumption under theoretical principles is clearly not an explanation by causes. But even when used to account for individual events, D-N explanations are not always causal. Aspects of Scientific Explanation, p. 352. 47 Ibid., p. 247; also p. 337. 4 8 Ibid . , p. 248; also pp. 424-25. 4 9 Ibid. , pp. 264-69. "^Brodbeck, op. cit . , pp. 245-46, emphasis in original. 129 w h e t h e r o r n o t t h e y a r e i m p o s s i b l e t o come b y i s a n o t h e r , p e r h a p s m o r e e x c i t i n g , i s s u e . S e e , e . g . , M a t s o n ' s d i s c u s s i o n o f t h e i m p l i c a t i o n s o f q u a n t u m p h y s i c s i n T h e B r o k e n I m a g e , p p . 1 2 9 - 1 5 5 . 5 2 B r o d b e c k , o p . c i t . , p . 2 4 7 . 5 3 H e m p e l , P h i l o s o p h y o f N a t u r a l S c i e n c e , E n g l e w o o d C l i f f s , N . J . , P r e n t i c e - H a l l , I n c . , 1 9 6 6 , p . 5 6 . 5 4 I b i d . , e m p h a s i s i n o r i g i n a l . H e m p e l c r e d i t s t h e f o r m u l a t i o n o f t h i s d i f f e r e n c e t o N e l s o n G o o d m a n , F a c t , F i c t i o n , a n d F o r e c a s t , 2 n d e d . , I n d i a n a p o l i s , B o b b s - M e r r i l l C o . , 1 9 6 5 , c h . 1 , " T h e P r o b l e m o f C o u n t e r -f a c t u a l C o n d i t i o n a l s . " 5 5 I b l d . 5 ^ I b i d . , e m p h a s i s i n o r i g i n a l . 5 ^ S e e , e . g . , N a g e l , o p . c i t . , p p . 4 9 - 5 2 . 5 8 T h e a n a l y t i c - s y n t h e t i c d i s t i n c t i o n h a s r e c e n t l y c o m e u n d e r s t r o n g a t t a c k i n t h e p h i l o s o p h y o f s c i e n c e . T h i s a t t a c k f o c u s s e s o n t h e b o u n d a r y l i n e b e t w e e n t h e t w o , w h i c h h a s p r o v e n t o b e l e s s d e f i n i t e t h a n f i r s t t h o u g h t . H o w e v e r , t h e s e c o n s i d e r a t i o n s n e e d n o t c o n c e r n u s h e r e , s i n c e we a r e d e a l i n g w i t h t h e d i s t i n c t i o n o n l y i n i t s b r o a d e s t s e n s e . T h e a m b i t i o u s r e a d e r i s r e f e r r e d t o W . V . O . Q u i n e , F r o m a L o g i c a l P o i n t o f  V i e w , C a m b r i d g e , M a s s . , H a r v a r d U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1 9 5 3 , 2 n d e d . , 1 9 6 1 , p p . 2 0 - 3 7 . 5 9 O b s e r v a t i o n a n d E x p l a n a t i o n , p . 5 8 . S e e a l s o A l a n R y a n , T h e  . P h i l o s o p h y o f t h e S o c i a l S c i e n c e s , L o n d o n , M a c M I l l a n a n d C o . , 1 9 7 0 , p p . 5 5 - 6 1 ; a n d H e m p e l , A s p e c t s o f S c i e n t i f i c E x p l a n a t i o n , p p . 3 1 5 - 4 7 . 6 0 M i c h a e l S c r i v e n , " E x p l a n a t i o n s , P r e d i c t i o n s , a n d L a w s , " i n M i n - n e s o t a S t u d i e s i n t h e P h i l o s o p h y o f S c i e n c e , V o l . 3 , p . 2 1 2 . ^ O n e i m p o r t a n t d i s t i n c t i o n w e h a v e n o t c o n s i d e r e d i s t h e d i f f e r e n c e b e t w e e n e m p i r i c a l g e n e r a l i z a t i o n s a n d a c c i d e n t a l u n i v e r s a l s . I f i n d e e d t h e r e i s s u c h a d i s t i n c t i o n , I t h i n k i t c a n b e d e s c r i b e d a s f o l l o w s : a n e m p i r i c a l g e n e r a l i z a t i o n m u s t b e e q u i v a l e n t t o a f i n i t e c o n j u n c t i o n o f s i n g l e o b s e r v a t i o n s , w h e r e a s a n a c c i d e n t a l u n i v e r s a l c a n b e i n f i n i t e i n s c o p e . T o r e t u r n t o t h e r o c k s , w e c a n t h u s s a y t h a t ' a l l r o c k s i n t h i s b o x c o n t a i n i r o n ' i s i n d e p e n d e n t o f t h e n u m b e r o f r o c k s i n t h e b o x a n d o f a n y p a r t i c u l a r i n d i v i d u a l r o c k . I t i s a n a c c i d e n t a l u n i v e r s a l . O n t h e o t h e r h a n d , i f we s a y ' a l l 4 3 r o c k s i n t h e b o x c o n t a i n i r o n ' , o u r g e n e r a l i z a t i o n i s b a s e d o n t h e c o n j u n c t i o n o f a f i n i t e n u m b e r o f i n d i -v i d u a l o b s e r v a t i o n s a n d i s a n e m p i r i c a l g e n e r a l i z a t i o n . I t a p p e a r s t h a t a c c i d e n t a l u n i v e r s a l s a r e m o r e e a s i l y c o n f u s e d w i t h l a w s t h a n a r e e m p i r i c a l g e n e r a l i z a t i o n s . B u t i t a l s o a p p e a r s t h a t s o c i a l s c i e n t i s t s a r e m o r e l i k e l y t o a t t e m p t d e d u c t i o n s f r o m e m p i r i c a l g e n e r a l i z a t i o n s t h a n f r o m a c c i d e n t a l u n i v e r s a l s . 1 3 0 62 P a u l E. M e e h l , " N u i s a n c e V a r i a b l e s a n d t h e E x P o s t F a c t o D e s i g n , " i n M i n n e s o t a S t u d i e s i n t h e P h i l o s o p h y o f S c i e n c e : V o l , 4 , A n a l y s i s o f  T h e o r i e s a n d M e t h o d s o f P h y s i c s a n d P s y c h o l o g y , E d s . M i c h a e l R a d n e r a n d S t e p h e n W i n o k u r , M i n n e a p o l i s , U n i v e r s i t y o f M i n n e s o t a P r e s s , 1 9 7 0 , p . 3 9 0 , e m p h a s i s i n o r i g i n a l . 6 3 I b i d . , p p . 3 9 0 - 9 1 , e m p h a s i s i n o r i g i n a l . 6 4 M i c h a e l S c r i v e n , " T r u i s m s a s t h e G r o u n d s f o r H i s t o r i c a l E x p l a n a -t i o n s , " i n T h e o r i e s o f H i s t o r y , ' E d . P a t r i c k G a r d i n e r , New Y o r k , T h e F r e e P r e s s , 1 9 5 9 , p . 4 5 8 , e m p h a s i s i n o r i g i n a l . . ^ A s p e c t s o f S c i e n t i f i c E x p l a n a t i o n , p . 2 4 8 . 6 6 I b i d . 6 7 I b i d . 6 8 I b i d . , f n . a d d e d i n 1 9 6 4 , e m p h a s i s i n o r i g i n a l . 6 9 W i l l a r d H u m p h r e y s , o p . c i t . , p p . 6 9 - 7 0 , e m p h a s i s i n o r i g i n a l . ^ ^ B r o d b e c k , o p . c i t . , p . 1 4 3 , e m p h a s i s i n o r i g i n a l . 7 1 B r o d b e c k , " E x p l a n a t i o n , P r e d i c t i o n s , a n d L a w s , " p . 3 1 2 . S e e a l s o S c r i v e n , " T h e K e y P r o p e r t y o f P h y s i c a l L a w s — I n a c c u r a c y , " i n C u r r e n t I s s u e s i n t h e P h i l o s o p h y o f S c i e n c e , E d s . H e r b e r t F e i g l a n d G r o v e r M a x -w e l l , New Y o r k , H o l t , R i n e h a r t , a n d W i n s t o n , 1 9 6 1 . 7 2 A s p e c t s o f S c i e n t i f i c E x p l a n a t i o n , p . 2 4 9 . c a n b r i e f l y m e n t i o n h e r e t h r e e k i n d s o f ' i n c o m p l e t e ' e x p l a -n a t i o n s a n d h o w t h e y f a l l s h o r t o f t h e D-N i d e a l . ( 1 ) E l l i p t i c a l e x p l a -n a t i o n i s i n c o m p l e t e o n l y i n t h e s e n s e t h a t t h e c o v e r i n g l a w s I n v o l v e d a r e n o t s p e c i f i e d e x p l i c i t l y , u s u a l l y b e c a u s e o f t h e i r o b v i o u s n e s s . I t i s e a s i l y made c o m p l e t e b y p e r f o r m i n g t h e r e q u i r e d s p e c i f i c a t i o n . ( 2 ) P a r t i a l e x p l a n a t i o n i n v o l v e s p r e m i s e s t h a t l o g i c a l l y l e a d t o a c l a s s o f c o n c l u s i o n s r a t h e r t h a t t h e u n i q u e c o n c l u s i o n t h e e x p l a n a t i o n i s m e a n t t o e x p l a i n . I t d i f f e r s f r o m a s t a t i s t i c a l e x p l a n a t i o n i n t h a t t h e l a t t e r a l s o l e a d s t o a c l a s s o f p h e n o m e n a , b u t i s n o t m e a n t t o b e a n y m o r e s p e c i f i c . N o t e , i n c i d e n t l y , t h a t a s t a t i s t i c a l e x p l a n a t i o n , a l -t h o u g h n o t d e d u c t i v e , i s c o n s i d e r e d b y H e m p e l t o b e c o m p l e t e b y i t s own s t a n d a r d s . ( 3 ) A n e x p l a n a t i o n s k e t c h i s t h e l e a s t c o m p l e t e t y p e o f e x p l a n a t i o n . I t i s l e s s s p e c i f i c a n d e x p l i c i t t h a n a p a r t i a l e x p l a -n a t i o n , a n d o f t e n c o n t a i n s v a g u e h y p o t h e s e s a n d p r o b l e m a t i c e m p i r i c a l r e f e r e n c e s . F o r m o r e d e t a i l s s e e H e m p e l , i b i d . , p p . 4 1 5 - 2 4 . 7 4 I b i d . , p . 2 4 9 . 1 3 1 S e e , e . g . , N . R . H a n s o n , " O n t h e S y m m e t r y B e t w e e n E x p l a n a t i o n a n d P r e d i c t i o n , " T h e P h i l o s o p h i c a l R e v i e w , v o l . 6 8 ( 1 9 5 9 ) , p p . 3 4 9 - 5 8 ; S t e p h e n T o u l m i n , F o r e s i g h t a n d U n d e r s t a n d i n g , I n d i a n a p o l i s , I n d i a n a U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1 9 6 1 , c h . 2 ; S c r i v e n , " T r u i s m s a s t h e G r o u n d s f o r H i s t o r i c a l E x -p l a n a t i o n , " a n d " E x p l a n a t i o n s , P r e d i c t i o n s , a n d L a w s . " ^ B r o d b e c k , o p . c i t . , p . 2 5 3 , e m p h a s i s i n o r i g i n a l . ^ A s p e c t s o f S c i e n t i f i c E x p l a n a t i o n , p . 3 6 7 , e m p h a s i s i n o r i g i n a l . 7 8 O r a n Y o u n g , " T h e P e r i l s o f O d y s s e u s : O n C o n s t r u c t i n g T h e o r i e s i n I n t e r n a t i o n a l R e l a t i o n s , " T a n t e r a n d U l l m a n , E d s . , o p . c i t . , p . 1 8 3 . 79 D a v i s B o b r o w , " T h e R e l e v a n c e P o t e n t i a l o f D i f f e r e n t P r o d u c t s , " i b i d . , p . 2 1 0 . 8 0 A n o t h e r e x a m p l e c a n b e f o u n d i n G r a h a m A l l i s o n , E s s e n c e o f  D e c i s i o n : E x p l a i n i n g t h e C u b a n M i s s i l e C r i s i s , B o s t o n , L i t t l e , B r o w n , a n d C o . , 1 9 7 1 , p . 2 7 9 . T h i s i s a p a r t i c u l a r l y i n t e r e s t i n g e x a m p l e o f t h e u s e o f p h i l o s o p h y o f s c i e n c e p o s i t i o n s f o r p u r e l y h o n o r i f i c p u r p o s e s . A l l i s o n , o n t h e p a g e n o t e d , d e c l a r e s t h a t h e w i l l e m p l o y H e m p e l ' s c o n c e p t o f e x p l a -n a t i o n i n h i s s t u d y a n d t h a t t h i s i m p l i e s , a m o n g o t h e r t h i n g s , t h a t " p r e -d i c t i o n i s e s s e n t i a l l y t h e c o n v e r s e o f e x p l a n a t i o n . " B u t t h e o v e r a l l a r -g u m e n t o f t h e b o o k i s a c t u a l l y a v e r y p r o f o u n d c h a l l e n g e t o H e m p e l ' s p o s i -t i o n , s i n c e i t h o l d s t h a t l o g i c a l l y i n c o m p l e t e e x p l a n a t i o n s c a n a d e q u a t e l y e x p l a i n t h e o u t c o m e s o f c o m p l e x e v e n t s e v e n w h e n t h e p r e m i s e s o f t h e s e e x p l a n a t i o n s c o n t r a d i c t e a c h o t h e r . T h u s , i t s t a n d s a s a n i m p o r t a n t v i n d i c a t i o n o f t h e v i e w t h a t u n d e r s t a n d i n g may b e b e t t e r s e r v e d b y t h e d e v e l o p m e n t o f i n c o m p l e t e e x p l a n a t i o n s w i t h i n c a r e f u l l y s e l e c t e d c o n t e x t s t h a n b y a n a t t e m p t t o d e v e l o p a s i n g l e , l o g i c a l l y - r i g o r o u s e x p l a n a t o r y f r a m e w o r k . 8 1 S e e , e . g . , S c r i v e r i , " E x p l a n a t i o n s , P r e d i c t i o n s , a n d L a w s , " p . 1 7 9 . 82 T o u l m i n , F o r e s i g h t a n d U n d e r s t a n d i n g , p p . 2 4 - 2 5 . 8 3 M i c h a e l S c r i v e n , " E x p l a n a t i o n a n d P r e d i c t i o n i n E v o l u t i o n a r y T h e o r y , " S c i e n c e , v o l . 3 0 , n o . 3 3 7 4 ( A u g u s t 2 8 , 1 9 5 9 ) , p . 4 7 7 . S e e a l s o , e . g . , K u h n , o p . c i t . , p . 1 7 2 ; K a p l a n , o p . c i t . , p . 3 4 7 ; G e o r g e G a y l o r d S i m p s o n , T h e M e a n i n g o f E v o l u t i o n , New H a v e n , Y a l e U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1 9 4 9 , p p . 2 6 1 - 6 2 . 8 4 A s p e c t s o f S c i e n t i f i c E x p l a n a t i o n , p . 3 7 0 . 8 5 S e e , e . g . , M i c h a e l T . G h i s e l i n , T h e T r i u m p h o f t h e D a r w i n i a n  M e t h o d , B e r k e l e y , U n i v e r s i t y o f C a l i f o r n i a P r e s s , 1 9 6 9 ; D a v i d H u l l , D a r w i n  a n d h i s C r i t i c s , C a m b r i d g e , M a s s . , H a r v a r d U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1 9 7 3 ; D o n a l d T . C a m p b e l l , " V a r i a t i o n a n d S e l e c t i v e R e t e n t i o n i n S o c i o - C u l t u r a l E v o l u t i o n , " G e n e r a l S y s t e m s Y e a r b o o k , v o l . 1 4 ( 1 9 6 9 ) ; T o u l m i n , Human U n d e r s t a n d i n g , C h . 5 . 132 86 S t e p h e n T o u l m i n , r e v i e w o f A s p e c t s o f S c i e n t i f i c E x p l a n a t i o n , S c i e n t i f i c A m e r i c a n , v o l . 2 1 4 , n o . 2 ( F e b r u a r y 1 9 6 6 ) , p . 1 3 0 . 87 A s p e c t s o f S c i e n t i f i c E x p l a n a t i o n s , p . 4 2 6 . 8 8 I b i d . , p . 4 1 3 . 8 9 B r o d b e c k , o p . c i t . , p . 2 3 1 . 9 0 T o u l m i n , Human U n d e r s t a n d i n g , p . 5 8 . 9 1 I b i d . , p . 6 3 . * 9 2 A s p e c t s o f S c i e n t i f i c E x p l a n a t i o n , p . 4 2 5 . 9 3 . . . q u i t e b r o a d l y s p e a k i n g , a n o p i n i o n a s t o w h a t l a w s h o l d i n n a t u r e a n d w h a t p h e n o m e n a c a n b e e x -p l a i n e d s u r e l y c a n n o t b e f o r m e d o n a n a l y t i c g r o u n d s a l o n e , b u t m u s t b e b a s e d o n t h e r e s u l t s o r e m p i r i c a l r e s e a r c h . I b i d . 9 4 R y a n , o p . c i t . , p . 7 6 . 9 5 H u m p h r e y s , o p . c i t . 1 0 6 . 9 6 H e m p e l , P h i l o s o p h y o f N a t u r a l S c i e n c e , p . 7 0 . 9 7 G u s t a v B e r g m a n n , P h i l o s o p h y o f S c i e n c e , M a d i s o n , U n i v e r s i t y o f W i s -c o n s i n P r e s s , 1 9 5 7 , p . 7 8 . S e e a l s o M e e h a n , o p . c i t . , p . 1 2 9 . T h i s v i e w o f t h e e x p l a n a t o r y p u r p o s e o f t h e o r i e s i s n o t u n i v e r s a l l y s h a r e d , o f c o u r s e . F o r i n s t a n c e , W i l f r e d S e l l e r s n o t e s : T h e o r i e s a b o u t o b s e r v a b l e t h i n g s d o n o t e x p l a i n  e m p i r i c a l l a w s , t h e y e x p l a i n w h y o b s e r v a b l e t h i n g s  o b e y , t o t h e e x t e n t t h a t t h e v d o . t h e s e e m p i r i c a l  l a w s ; t h a t i s , t h e y e x p l a i n w h y i n d i v i d u a l o b l e c t s o f v a r i o u s c i r c u m s t a n c e s o f t h e o b s e r v a t i o n f r a m e -w o r k b e h a v e i n t h o s e w a y s i n w h i c h i t h a s b e e n i n -d u c t i v e l y e s t a b l i s h e d t h a t t h e y d o b e h a v e . " T h e L a n g u a g e o f T h e o r i e s , " i n F e i g l a n d M a x w e l l , E d s . , o p . c i t . , p . 7 1 , e m p h a s i s i n o r i g i n a l . 9 8 K a p l a n , o p . c i t . , p . 2 9 8 , e m p h a s i s i n o r i g i n a l . 9 9 R . B . B r a i t h w a i t e , S c i e n t i f i c E x p l a n a t i o n , C a m b r i d g e , C a m b r i d g e U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1 9 5 3 , p . 1 2 . ^ ^ P h i l o s o p h v o f N a t u r a l S c i e n c e , p . 5 8 . 133 H a n s o n , " L o g i c a l P o s i t i v i s m a n d t h e I n t e r p r e t a t i o n o f S c i e n t i f i c T h e o r i e s , " p . 5 8 , e m p h a s i s i n o r i g i n a l . T h e c o n c e p t i o n o f t h e o r y d e s c r i b e d h e r e i s m o s t o f t e n a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h e e a r l y l o g i c a l p o s i t i v i s t s . S e e , e . g . , N . R . C a m p b e l l , P h y s i c s : T h e E~: e m e n t s , C a m b r i d g e , C a m b r i d g e U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1 9 2 0 , r e p r i n t e d a s F o u n d a t i o n s o f S c i e n c e , New Y o r k , D o v e r , 1 9 5 7 ; R . P . R a m s e y , T h e F o u n d a t i o n s o f M a t h e m a t i c s , L o n d o n , R o u t l e d g e a n d K e g a n P a u l , 1 9 3 1 ; R u d o l f C a r n a p , F o u n d a t i o n s o f L o g i c a n d M a t h e m a t i c s , C h i c a g o , U n i v e r s i t y o f C h i c a g o P r e s s , 1 9 3 9 . I t s t i l l a t t r a c t s many a d h e r e n t s , h o w -e v e r . S e e , e . g . , B r a i t h w a i t e , o p . c i t . ; H . E . K y b u r g , P h i l o s o p h y o f S c i e n c e : A F o r m a l A p p r o a c h , New Y o r k , M a c m i l l a n , 1 9 6 8 ; P a t r i c k S u p p e s , " T h e D e s i r a b -i l i t y o f F o r m a l i z a t i o n i n S c i e n c e , " J o u r n a l o f P h i l o s o p h y , v o l . 6 5 ( 1 9 6 8 ) , p p . 6 5 1 - 6 4 . 1 0 2 C a r l G . H e m p e l , " O n t h e ' S t a n d a r d C o n c e p t i o n ' o f S c i e n t i f i c T h e o r i e s , " i n M i n n e s o t a S t u d i e s i n t h e P h i l o s o p h y o f S c i e n c e : V o l . 4 , p . 1 5 2 . 1 0 3 I b i d . 1 0 4 H a n s o n , " L o g i c a l P o s i t i v i s m a n d t h e I n t e r p r e t a t i o n o f S c i e n t i f i c T h e o r i e s , " p . 8 4 , e m p h a s i s i n o r i g i n a l . ^ 5 I b i d . , p p . 7 6 - 7 7 , e m p h a s i s i n o r i g i n a l . 1 0 6 H e m p e l , " O n t h e ' S t a n d a r d C o n c e p t i o n * o f S c i e n t i f i c T h e o r i e s , p . 1 4 8 . 1 0 7 J . H . W o o d g e r , T h e A x i o m a t i c M e t h o d i n B i o l o g y , C a m b r i d g e , C a m -b r i d g e U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1 9 3 7 ; T h e T e c h n i q u e o f T h e o r y C o n s t r u c t i o n , C h i c a g o , U n i v e r s i t y o f C h i c a g o P r e s s , 1 9 3 9 . 1 0 8 T o u l m i n , r e v i e w o f A s p e c t s o f S c i e n t i f i c E x p l a n a t i o n , p . 1 3 3 . 1 0 9 H a n s o n , " L o g i c a l P o s i t i v i s m a n d t h e I n t e r p r e t a t i o n o f S c i e n t i f i c T h e o r i e s , " p . 7 6 . 1 1 0 H e m p e l , " O n t h e ' S t a n d a r d C o n c e p t i o n 1 o f S c i e n t i f i c T h e o r i e s , p . 1 4 2 . " ^ ^ " I b i d . , p . 1 4 3 , e m p h a s i s i n o r i g i n a l . 1 1 2 I b i d . , p . 1 5 3 . 1 1 3 H e m p e l , P h i l o s o p h y o f N a t u r a l S c i e n c e , p . 7 4 . 1 1 4 " O n t h e ' S t a n d a r d C o n c e p t i o n ' o f S c i e n t i f i c T h e o r i e s , p . 1 4 4 . ^ " ' P h i l o s o p h y o f N a t u r a l S c i e n c e , p . 7 4 . 134 P r o b a b l y t h e m o s t i n f l u e n t i a l p r e s e n t a t i o n o f t h e ' s t a n d a r d a p -p r o a c h ' c r i t i c i z e d h e r e i s E r n e s t N a g e l , T h e S t r u c t u r e o f S c i e n c e . W i t h r e f e r e n c e t o t h e o r i e s , N a g e l s t a t e s ( p . 9 0 ) : F o r t h e p u r p o s e s o f a n a l y s i s , i t w i l l b e u s e f u l t o d i s t i n g u i s h t h r e e c o m p o n e n t s i n a t h e o r y : ( 1 ) a n a b s t r a c t c a l c u l u s t h a t i s t h e l o g i c a l s k e l e t o n o f t h e e x p l a n a t o r y s y s t e m , a n d t h a t " i m p l i c i t l y d e f i n e s " t h e b a s i c n o t i o n s o f t h e s y s t e m ; (2) a s e t o f r u l e s t h a t i n e f f e c t a s s i g n a n e m p i r i c a l c o n t e n t t o t h e a b s t r a c t c a l c u l u s b y r e l a t i n g i t t o t h e c o n c r e t e m a t e r i a l s o f o b s e r v a t i o n a n d e x p e r i m e n t ; a n d ( 3 ) a n i n t e r p r e t a t i o n o r m o d e l f o r t h e a b s t r a c t c a l c u l u s , w h i c h s u p p l i e s s o m e f l e s h f o r t h e s k e l e t a l s t r u c t u r e i n m o r e o r l e s s f a m i l i a r c o n c e p t u a l o r v i s u a l i z a b l e m a t e r i a l s . We w i l l n o t b e a b l e t o d i s c u s s t h e m o d e l c o m p o n e n t h e r e , s i n c e i t i s a h e u r i s t i c r a t h e r t h a n l o g i c a l a s p e c t o f a t h e o r y . S e e N a g e l ' s a n a l y s i s o f m o d e l s , i b i d . , p p . 9 5 - 9 7 , 1 0 7 - 1 7 ; a l s o K a p l a n , o p . c i t . , p p . 2 5 8 - 9 3 . O t h e r i m p o r t a n t s o u r c e s o f t h e s t a n d a r d v i e w i n c l u d e B r a i t h w a i t e , o p . c i t . ; R u d o l f C a r n a p , " T h e M e t h o d o l o g i c a l C h a r a c t e r o f T h e o r e t i c a l C o n c e p t s , " i n M i n n e s o t a S t u d i e s i n t h e P h i l o s o p h y o f S c i e n c e : V o l . 1 , T h e F o u n d a t i o n s  o f S c i e n c e a n d t h e C o n c e p t s o f P s y c h o l o g y a n d P s y c h o a n a l y s i s , E d s . H e r b e r t F e i g l a n d M i c h a e l S c r i v e n , M i n n e a p o l i s , U n i v e r s i t y o f M i n n e s o t a P r e s s , 1 9 5 6 , p p . 3 8 - 7 6 ; C a r n a p , P h i l o s o p h i c a l F o u n d a t i o n s o f P h y s i c s , E d . , M . G a r d n e r , New Y o r k , B a s i c B o o k s , 1 9 6 6 . H e m p e l ' s own c o n t r i b u t i o n t o t h e c o n s t r u a l h e n o w c r i t i c i z e s h a s a l s o b e e n s u b s t a n t i a l . S e e h i s F u n d a m e n t a l s  o f C o n c e p t F o r m a t i o n i n t h e E m p i r i c a l S c i e n c e s , V o l . 2 , n o . 7 o f T h e I n t e r - n a t i o n a l E n c y c l o p e d i a o f U n i f i e d S c i e n c e , C h i c a g o , U n i v e r s i t y o f C h i c a g o P r e s s , 1 9 5 2 ; a n d " T h e T h e o r e t i c i a n ' s D i l e m m a : A S t u d y i n t h e L o g i c o f T h e o r y C o n s t r u c t i o n , " r e p r i n t e d i n A s p e c t s o f S c i e n t i f i c E x p l a n a t i o n , p p . 1 7 3 - 2 2 6 . ^ 7 " 0 n t h e ' S t a n d a r d C o n c e p t i o n ' o f S c i e n t i f i c T h e o r i e s , " p p . 1 5 8 -5 9 , e m p h a s i s i n o r i g i n a l . l i f t I b i d . , p . 1 5 9 . 1 1 9 I b i d . , p . 1 6 0 ; q u o t e f r o m W . V . O . Q u l n e , " C a r n a p a n d L o g i c a l T r u t h , " i n T h e Ways o f P a r a d o x a n d O t h e r E s s a y s , New Y o r k , R a n d o m H o u s e , 1 9 6 6 , p . 1 1 2 . 1 2 0 " O n t h e ' S t a n d a r d C o n c e p t i o n ' o f S c i e n t i f i c T h e o r i e s , " p . 1 6 1 . 1 2 1 I b i d . 1 2 2 I t s h o u l d b e s t r e s s e d , h o w e v e r , t h a t i n n o w a y c a n H e m p e l ' s r e f o r -m u l a t i o n b e s e e n a s a t h r o w i n g o v e r o f t h e s t u d y o f r e c o n s t r u c t e d t h e o r i e s f o r t h e s t u d y o f a c t u a l t h e o r i e s . O n t h i s h e i s q u i t e ' e x p l i c i t : 135 My m i s g i v i n g s d o n o t c o n c e r n t h e o b v i o u s f a c t t h a t t h e o r i e s a s a c t u a l l y s t a t e d a n d u s e d b y s c i -e n t i s t s a r e a l m o s t n e v e r f o r m u l a t e d i n a c c o r d a n c e w i t h t h e s t a n d a r d s c h e m a ; n o r d o t h e y s t e m f r o m t h e t h o u g h t t h a t a s t a n d a r d f o r m u l a t i o n c o u l d a t b e s t r e p r e s e n t a t h e o r y q u i c k - f r o z e n , a s i t w e r e , a t a m o m e n t a r y s t a g e o f w h a t i s i n f a c t a c o n t i n u a l l y d e v e l o p i n g s y s t e m o f i d e a s . T h e s e o b s e r v a t i o n s r e p r e s e n t n o t e l l i n g c r i t i c i s m s , I t h i n k . . . . I b i d . , p . 148. ^ \ f e s l e y S a l m o n , " B a y e s T h e o r e m a n d t h e H i s t o r y o f S c i e n c e , " i n M i n n e s o t a S t u d i e s i n t h e P h i l o s o p h y o f S c i e n c e : V o l . 5, p p . 68-69, ' e m p h a s i s i n o r i g i n a l . 124 C a r l H e m p e l , " S t u d i e s i n t h e L o g i c o f C o n f i r m a t i o n , " r e p r i n t e d I n A s p e c t s o f S c i e n t i f i c E x p l a n a t i o n , p . 5, e m p h a s i s i n o r i g i n a l . 125 M c M u l l i n , o p . c i t . , p p . 12-13 5 e m p h a s i s i n o r i g i n a l . 126 S a l m o n , o p . c i t . , p . 72. 127 H a n s o n , " L o g i c a l P o s i t i v i s m a n d t h e I n t e r p r e t a t i o n o f S c i e n t i f i c T h e o r i e s , " p . 74, e m p h a s i s i n o r i g i n a l . 128 I s r a e l S c h e f f l e r , S c i e n c e a n d S u b j e c t i v i t y , I n d i a n a p o l i s , B o b b s -M e r r i l l , 1967, p . 73. I t s h o u l d b e n o t e d t h a t S c h e f f l e r ' s b o o k i s a n a t t e m p t t o r e f u t e t h i s n o t i o n . 129 P a u l F e y e r a b e n d , " E x p l a n a t i o n , R e d u c t i o n , a n d E m p i r i c i s m , " i n M i n n e s o t a S t u d i e s i n t h e P h i l o s o p h y o f S c i e n c e : V o l . 3, p . 49, e m p h a s i s i n o r i g i n a l . 130 P a u l F e y e r a b e n d , " A g a i n s t M e t h o d : O u t l i n e o f a n A n a r c h i s t i c T h e o r y o f K n o w l e d g e , " M i n n e s o t a S t u d i e s i n t h e P h i l o s o p h y o f S c i e n c e : V o l . j4, p . 70, e m p h a s i s i n . o r d i n a l . 131 S e e , e . g . , K u h n , o p . c i t . , p p . 8-9; T o u l m i n , Human U n d e r s t a n d i n g , p . 313; G u n n e l l , " S o c i a l S c i e n c e a n d P o l i t i c a l R e a l i t y , " p . 170; " D e d u c -t i o n , E x p l a n a t i o n a n d S o c i a l S c i e n t i f i c I n q u i r y , " p p . 1238-39. 132 B r a i t h w a i t e , o p . c i t . , p . v i i . 133 • " i b i d . , p . 13. 134 . . . t o t a l s c i e n c e i s l i k e a f i e l d o f f o r c e w h o s e b o u n d a r y c o n d i t i o n s a r e e x p e r i e n c e . A c o n f l i c t w i t h e x p e r i e n c e a t t h e p e r i p h e r y o c c a s i o n s r e a d -j u s t m e n t s i n t h e i n t e r i o r o f t h e f i e l d . T r u t h v a l u e s • h a v e t o b e r e d i s t r i b u t e d o v e r s o m e o f o u r s t a t e m e n t s . 1 3 6 R e - e v a l u a t i o n o f s o m e s t a t e m e n t s e n t a i l s r e -e v a l u a t i o n o f o t h e r s , b e c a u s e o f t h e i r l o g i c a l i n t e r c o n n e c t i o n s . . . . " W V . O . Q u i n e , F r o m a L o g i c a l P o i n t o f V i e w , p . 4 2 ; q u o t e d i n H u m p h r e y s , o p . c i t . , p . 1 0 9 . 1 3 5 K a r l P o p p e r , L o g i c o f S c i e n t i f i c D i s c o v e r y , New Y o r k , S c i e n c e E d i t i o n s , 1 9 6 1 , p p . 4 0 - 4 1 , e m p h a s i s i n o r i g i n a l 1 3 6 H u m p h r e y s , o p . c i t . , p . 1 1 0 . 1 3 7 B r a i t h w a i t e , o p . c i t . , p p . 1 9 - 2 0 . ' 1 3 8 S e e t h e d i s c u s s i o n i n K u h n , o p . c i t . , p p . 7 2 - 7 4 . 1 3 9 F o r a n e x c e l l e n t c o n s i d e r a t i o n o f t h e p r o b l e m o f i n d u c t i o n , s e e M a x B l a c k , " T h e J u s t i f i c a t i o n o f I n d u c t i o n , " i n M o r g e n b e s s e r , E d . , o p . c i t . , p p . 1 9 0 - 2 0 0 . 1 4 0 S a l m o n , o p . c i t . , p . 7 7 , e m p h a s i s i n o r i g i n a l . 1 4 1 H e m p e l , P h i l o s o p h y o f N a t u r a l S c i e n c e , p p . 3 3 - 4 5 . 1 4 2 S a l m o n , o p . c i t . , p . 8 0 , e m p h a s i s i n o r i g i n a l 1 4 3 I b i d . , p . 8 1 , e m p h a s i s i n o r i g i n a l . 1 4 4 S e e , e . g . , t h e c o n c e p t o f " s u b j e c t i v e p r o b a b i l i t y " i n L . J . S a v a g e , T h e F o u n d a t i o n s o f S t a t i s t i c s , New Y o r k , W i l e y , 1 9 5 4 ; a n d " e n t r e n c h m e n t " i n G o o d m a n , o p . c i t . I t s h o u l d b e e m p h a s i z e d t h a t t h e s e s o l u t i o n s a r e o n l y i n a d e q u a t e i n t h e i r a b i l i t y t o s a v e t h e d e d u c t i v i s t p o i n t o f v i e w . A s i n d e p e n d e n t c o n t r i b u t i o n s l e a d i n g t o w a r d a p o s t - d e d u c t i v i s t a p p r o a c h t o c o n f i r m a t i o n , t h e y a r e e x c i t i n g a n d p r o m i s i n g . 1 4 5 A n o t h e r , t a n g e n t i a l , p r o b l e m r e l a t i n g t o S a l m o n ' s a p p r o a c h i s t h i s : Why s h o u l d o n l y p l a u s i b l e a r g u m e n t s b e a l l o w e d a s e v i d e n t i a l s u p -p o r t f o r new h y p o t h e s e s ? A s P a u l F e y e r a b e n d c o n t e n d s , I m p l a u s i b l e a r g u m e n t s a r e a l s o o f t e n r e s p o n s i b l e f o r c r e a t i n g f r u i t f u l n ew w a y s o f c o n c e p t u a l i z i n g a n d s o l v i n g p r o b l e m s . T h u s , h e o b s e r v e s : . . . I s u g g e s t i n t r o d u c i n g , e l a b o r a t i n g , a n d p r o -p a g a t i n g h y p o t h e s e s w h i c h a r e i n c o n s i s t e n t e i t h e r w i t h w e l l - e s t a b l i s h e d t h e o r i e s o r w i t h w e l l -e s t a b l i s h e d f a c t s . O r , a s I s h a l l e x p r e s s m y s e l f : I s u g g e s t p r o c e e d i n g c o u n t e r i n d u c t i v e l y i n a d d i t i o n  t o p r o c e e d i n g i n d u c t i v e l y . " A g a i n s t M e t h o d , " p . 2 6 , e m p h a s i s i n o r i g i n a l . 1 4 6 C a r n a p ' s w o r k i s s u m m a r i z e d i n T h e C o n t i n u u m o f I n d u c t i v e M e t h o d s , C h i c a g o , U n i v e r s i t y o f C h i c a g o P r e s s , 1 9 5 2 ; a n d T h e L o g i c a l F o u n d a t i o n s o f 1 3 7 P r o b a b i l i t y , C h i c a g o , U n i v e r s i t y o f C h i c a g o P r e s s , 2 n d e d . , 1 9 6 2 . F o r a m o r e e l e m e n t a r y a c c o u n t o f h i s b a s i c i d e a s , s e e C a r n a p , " S t a t i s t i c a l a n d I n d u c t i v e P r o b a b i l i t y , " i n T h e S t r u c t u r e o f S c i e n t i f i c T h o u g h t , E d . E . H . M a d d e n , B o s t o n , H o u g h t o n - M i f f l i n C o . , 1 9 6 0 , p p . 2 6 9 - 7 9 ; a n d " T h e A i m o f I n d u c t i v e L o g i c , " i n L o g i c , M e t h o d o l o g y , a n d P h i l o s o p h y o f S c i e n c e , " P r o c e e d i n g s o f t h e 1 9 6 0 I n t e r n a t i o n a l C o n g r e s s , E d s . E r n e s t N a g e l , P a t r i c k S u p p e s , a n d A l f r e d T a r s k i , S t a n f o r d , S t a n f o r d U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1 9 6 2 , p p . 3 0 3 - 1 8 . 1 4 7 F o r a s a m p l e o f t h e c r i t i q u e o f C a r n a p ' s w o r k , s e e P . A . S c h i l p p , E d . , T h e P h i l o s o p h y o f R u d o l f C a r n a p , o p . c i t . , e s p e c i a l l y a r t i c l e s b y A r t h u r B a n k s , J o h n K e m e n y , E r n e s t N a g e l , a n d H i l l a r y P u t n a m ; P o p p e r , o p . c i t . ; a n d W e s l e y S a l m o n , T h e F o u n d a t i o n s o f S c i e n t i f i c I n f e r e n c e , P i t t s b u r g h , U n i v e r s i t y o f P i t t s b u r g h P r e s s , 1 9 6 8 . 1 4 8 H e m p e l , P h i l o s o p h y o f N a t u r a l S c i e n c e , p p . 8 0 - 8 1 , e m p h a s i s i n o r i g i n a l . 1 4 9 T h o m a s G r e e n e , " V a l u e s a n d t h e M e t h o d o l o g y o f P o l i t i c a l S c i e n c e , " C a n a d i a n J o u r n a l o f P o l i t i c a l S c i e n c e , v o l . 3 , n o . 2 ( J u n e 1 9 7 0 ) , p p . 2 8 1 - 2 8 2 . ^ " ^ P a u l F e y e r a b e n d , " P h i l o s o p h y o f S c i e n c e : A S u b j e c t W i t h a G r e a t P a s t , " M i n n e s o t a S t u d i e s i n t h e P h i l o s o p h y o f S c i e n c e : V o l . 5 , p . 1 8 1 , e m p h a s i s i n o r i g i n a l . ^ • ^ Y o u n g , o p . c i t . , p . 1 7 9 . 1 5 2 I b i d . 1 5 3 I b i d . , p . 1 8 0 . I t i s w o r t h w h i l e t o n o t e t h a t Y o u n g c i t e s a s r e f e r e n c e s f o r t h i s d e f i n i t i o n o f t h e o r y B r o d b e c k , " E x p l a n a t i o n , P r e d i c t i o n , a n d ' I m p e r f e c t ' K n o w l e d g e , " a n d H e m p e l , P h i l o s o p h y o f  N a t u r a l S c i e n c e 1 5 4 I b i d . , p . 1 9 5 . 1 5 5 I b i d . , p . 1 9 7 , e m p h a s i s i n o r i g i n a l . ^ " ^ Y o u n g ' s p o s i t i o n c o n c e r n i n g t h e r e l a t i v e m e r i t s o f d e d u c t i v e a n d i n d u c t i v e t h e o r y b u i l d i n g p r o c e d u r e s h a s h a r d e n e d c o n s i d e r a b l y i n t h e l a s t f e w y e a r s . I n 1 9 6 8 , h e w a s a b l e t o m a k e t h e f o l l o w i n g r e m a r k s a b o u t t h e c o m p l e m e n t a r i t y o f d e d u c t i v e a n d i n d u c t i v e m e t h o d s : T h e c o n c e p t u a l d i s t i n c t i o n b e t w e e n d e d u c t i v e a n d i n d u c t i v e p r o c e d u r e s . . . t e n d s t o b e c o m e h a z y i n t h e c o n t e x t o f many s p e c i f i c p r o j e c t s . D e d u c t i v e s t a t e -m e n t s a r e f r e q u e n t l y f o r m u l a t e d s o s l o p p i l y t h a t t h e i r i n t e l l e c t u a l s t a t u s i s u n c l e a r . I n d u c t i v e a n a l y s e s a r e g e n e r a l l y b a s e d o n a t l e a s t h u n c h e s c o n c e r n i n g c a u s a l c o n n e c t i o n s . . . . A n d , i n <5 1 3 8 addition, there is frequently a back and.forth relationship between deductive and inductive operations. That Is, the inspection of empirical material on an inductive basis Is sometimes heuristic in identifying variables and generating insights for deductive formulations. And the resultant deductive formulations are apt to serve as guidelines in directing inductive foraging operations. Oran Young, "A Systemic Approach to International Politics," Research Monograph No. 33, Center for International Studies, Princeton University, June 30, 1968, pp. 54-55. 157Young, "The Perils of Odysseus," pp. 197-99. 158 This aspect of Young's critique of descriptive and inductive methods — that the fault lies with the practitioners, not the practice — is clearly evident in his no-holds-barred attack on Bruce Russett, "Professor Russett: Industrious Tailor to a Naked Emperor," World Poli- tics, vol. 21, no. 2 (April 1969), pp. 486-511. For Russett's reply, see Bruce Russett, "The Young Science of International Poltics," World Poli- tics, vol. 21, no. 4 (October 1969), pp. 87-94. 159 Young,"The Perils of Odysseus," pp. 196,198. "*"^ As Nagel makes clear with reference to the model outlined above (fn. 116): We will develop these distinctions in the order just mentioned. However, they are rarely given explicit formulation in actual scientific practice, nor do they correspond to actual stages In the construction of theoretical explanations. The order of exposition here adopted must therefore not be assumed to reflect the temporal order in which theories are generated in the minds of individual scientists. Nagel, The Structure of Science, p. 90. ^^Morton A. Kaplan, System and Process in International Politics, New York, John Wiley and Sons, 2nd printing, 1967, pp. 245-46. Ibid., "Preface to the Paperback Edition." 163 See, e.g., "Problems of Theory Building and Theory Confirmation in International Politics," In The International System: Theoretical  Essays, Eds. Klauss Knorr and Sidney Verba, Princeton, Princeton Univer-sity Press, 1961, pp. 6-24; "The New Great Debate," in Knorr and Rosenau, op. cit., pp. 39-61; "Glimpses into a Philosophy of Politics," in Macropolitics, Chicago, Aldine Publishing Co., 1969, pp. 3-48. 164 M.A. Kaplan, Macropolitics, p. 16. 1 1 3 9 ^ " ' B o b r o w , o p . c i t . , p . 2 1 0 . 1 6 6 I b i d . , p . 2 0 9 . 1 6 7 E a s t o n , T h e P o l i t i c a l S y s t e m , p . 5 8 . 1 6 8 I b i d . , p p . 5 8 - 5 9 . " ^ H e m p e l , P h i l o s o p h y o f N a t i . t r a l S c i e n c e , p . 8 1 . ^ 7 ^ D a v i d E a s t o n , A F r a m e w o r k f o r P o l i t i c a l A n a l y s i s , E n g l e w o o d C l i f f s , N . H . , P r e n t i c e - H a l l , I n c . , 1 9 6 5 , p . 1 9 . * 1 7 1 F o r a s u b t l e e v a l u a t i o n o f t h e s e d i f f i c u l t i e s , s e e K a r l D e u t s c h , T h e N e r v e s o f G o v e r n m e n t , New Y o r k , T h e F r e e P r e s s , 1 9 6 3 , C h s . I - I V . F o r a c r i t i q u e o f t h e p l a u s i b i l i t y o f a g e n e r a l t h e o r y o f p o l i t i c s , s e e T h o r s o n , o p . c i t . , c h . 3 . 1 7 2 W i l l i a m H . R i k e r , T h e T h e o r y o f P o l i t i c a l C o a l i t i o n s , New H a v e n a n d L o n d o n , Y a l e U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1 9 6 2 , p . . 3 , e m p h a s i s i n o r i g i n a l . 1 7 3 W i l l i a m H . R i k e r a n d P e t e r O r d e s h o o k , A n I n t r o d u c t i o n t o P o s i t i v e  P o l i t i c a l T h e o r y , E n g l e w o o d C l i f f s , N . J . , P r e n t i c e - H a l l , I n s . , 1 9 7 3 , p . x i . 1 7 4 T o u l m i n m a i n t a i n s t h a t t h e g o a l o f g e n e r a l t h e o r y i n s o c i a l s c i -e n c e may a c t u a l l y b e a s i g n o f i m m a t u r i t y , i f we t a k e t h e p h y s i c a l s c i -e n c e s a s a n e x a m p l e : L a t e r s c i e n c e h a s d e m o n s t r a t e d i t s m a t u r i t y n o t l e a s t , i n t h e f a c t t h a t s c i e n t i s t s h a v e g i v e n up t h i s p r e m a t u r e l y g e n e r a l a m b i t i o n . I n s t e a d , p h y s i c i s t s a n d p h y s i o l o g i s t s now b e l i e v e t h a t . . . w e s h a l l do b e t t e r , i n t h e s e f i e l d s , b y w o r k i n g o u r w a y t o w a r d s m o r e g e n e r a l c o n c e p t s p r o g r e s s i v e l y , r a t h e r t h a n i n s i s t i n g o n c o m p l e t e g e n e r a l i t y f r o m t h e o u t s e t . A n d i f b e h a v i o u r a l s c i e n t i s t s e v e n -t u a l l y r e a c h a s i m i l a r c o n c l u s i o n — d e c i d i n g t h a t ' h u m a n b e h a v i o r i n g e n e r a l ' . . . r e p r e s e n t s t o o b r o a d a d o m a i n t o b e e n c o m p a s s e d w i t h i n a s i n g l e b o d y o f t h e o r y — t h a t c o u l d a g a i n b e a s i g n o f m a t u r i t y r a t h e r t h a n d e f e a t i s m . S t e p h e n T o u l m i n , Human U n d e r s t a n d i n g , p . 3 8 7 . 1 7 \ o b e r t H o l t a n d J o h n R i c h a r d s o n , J r . , " C o m p e t i n g P a r a d i g m s i n C o m p a r a t i v e R e s e a r c h , " i n T h e M e t h o d o l o g y o f C o m p a r a t i v e R e s e a r c h , E d s . R o b e r t H o l t a n d J o h n T u r n e r , New Y o r k , T h e F r e e P r e s s , 1 9 7 0 , p . 2 4 . 1 7 6 R o b e r t H o l t a n d J o h n T u r n e r , " T h e M e t h o d o l o g y o f C o m p a r a t i v e R e s e a r c h , " i n i b i d . , p . 6 . 1 7 7 I b i d . , p p . 6 - 7 . 1 4 0 1 7 8 H o l t a n d R i c h a r d s o n , o p . c i t . , p . 7 0 , e m p h a s i s i n o r i g i n a l . 1 7 9 I b i d . , p . 7 0 . T h e y a l s o a d d , s i g n i f i c a n t l y , t h a t : I n m a k i n g a n a p p e a l f o r m o r e m a t h e m a t i c s , we a r e n o t t a l k i n g a b o u t s t a t i s t i c s . . . . [ S t a t i s t i c s p r o -v i d e s a s c i e n c e w i t h a b a s i s f o r r i g o r o u s i n d u c t i o n . O u r c r i t i q u e s u g g e s t s t h a t t h e c r y i n g n e e d i n c o m -p a r a t i v e p o l i t i c s i s f o r m o r e r i g o r o u s d e d u c t i o n a n d t h i s I s w h e r e m a t h e m a t i c s , n o t s t a t i s t i c s , i s r e l e v a n t . I b i d . , p . 7 1 , e m p h a s i s i n o r i g i n a l . ' 1 8 0 I b i d . , p . 7 0 . * 1 8 1 I b i d . , p p . 7 0 - 7 1 , s e e a l s o p p . 2 6 , 5 9 . 1 8 2 „ H B o l t a n d R i c h a r d s o n ' s i n h o s p i t a b l e a t t i t u d e t o w a r d s o c i a l l y r e l e v a n t p r o b l e m s may b e a b y - p r o d u c t o f t h e i r u n c r i t i c a l a c c e p t a n c e o f K u h n ' s e a r l y f o r m u l a t i o n s . F o r e x a m p l e , h e s t a t e s i n T h e S t r u c t u r e o f  S c i e n t i f i c R e v o l u t i o n s t h a t : . . . t h e i n s u l a t i o n o f t h e s c i e n t i f i c c o m m u n i t y f r o m s o c i e t y p e r m i t s t h e i n d i v i d u a l s c i e n t i s t t o c o n c e n t r a t e h i s a t t e n t i o n u p o n p r o b l e m s t h a t h e h a s g o o d r e a s o n t o b e l i e v e h e w i l l b e a b l e t o s o l v e . U n l i k e t h e e n g i n e e r , a n d many d o c t o r s , a n d m o s t t h e o l o g i a n s , t h e s c i e n t i s t n e e d n o t c h o o s e p r o b l e m s b e c a u s e t h e y u r g e n t l y n e e d s o l u t i o n a n d w i t h o u t r e g a r d f o r t h e t o o l s a v a i l a b l e t o s o l v e t h e m . I n t h i s r e s p e c t , a l s o , t h e c o n t r a s t b e t w e e n n a t u r a l s c i e n t i s t s a n d many s o c i a l s c i e n t i s t s p r o v e s i n s t r u c t i v e . T h e l a t t e r o f t e n t e n d , a s t h e f o r m e r a l m o s t n e v e r d o , t o d e f e n d t h e i r c h o i c e o f a r e s e a r c h p r o b l e m — e . g . , t h e e f f e c t s o f r a c i a l d i s c r i m i n a t i o n o r t h e c a u s e s o f t h e b u s i n e s s c y c l e — c h i e f l y i n t e r m s o f t h e s o c i a l i m p o r t a n c e o f a c h i e v -i n g a s o l u t i o n . W h i c h g r o u p w o u l d o n e e x p e c t t o s o l v e p r o b l e m s a t a m o r e r a p i d r a t e ? K u h n , o p . c i t . , p . 1 6 4 . H o l t a n d R i c h a r d s o n ' s a t t e m p t t o m a k e s o c i a l s c i e n t i s t s m o r e l i k e p h y s i c a l s c i e n t i s t s b y s t r i p p i n g a w a y a l l t h a t i s d i s t i n c t i v e a b o u t t h e i r s u b j e c t m a t t e r i s a c l a s s i c , i f s o m e w h a t h o r -r e n d o u s , e x a m p l e o f p u t t i n g t h e p r i o r i t i e s o f f o r m a b o v e t h o s e o f c o n -t e x t . T o t h e e x t e n t t h a t t h e i r v i e w s r e s u l t f r o m a r e a d i n g o f K u h n , i t i s i n t e r e s t i n g t o n o t e t h a t h i s i d e a s h a v e r e c e n t l y come u n d e r i n t e n s e a t t a c k w i t h i n p h i l o s o p h y o f s c i e n c e . S e e , e . g . , L a k a t o s a n d M u s g r a v e , E d s . , o p . c i t . ; a n d T o u l m i n , Human U n d e r s t a n d i n g , p p . 9 6 - 1 3 0 . F o r a m o r e s p e c i f i c c r i t i q u e o f a p p l i c a t i o n s o f K u h n ' s i d e a s t o p o l i t i c a l s c i -e n c e , i n c l u d i n n H o l t a n d R i c h a r d s o n ' s , s e e J e r o n e S t e p h e n s , " T h e K u h n i a n P a r a d i g m a n d P o l i t i c a l I n q u i r y : A n A p p r a i s a l , " American Joufaal o f P o l i - t i c a l S c i e n c e , v o l . 1 7 , n o . 3 ( A u g u s t 1 9 7 3 ) . 141 1 8 3 A . J a m e s G r e g o r , " P o l i t i c a l S c i e n c e a n d t h e U s e s o f F u n c t i o n a l A n a l y s i s , " A m e r i c a n P o l i t i c a l S c i e n c e R e v i e w , v o l . 6 2 , n o . 2 ( J u n e 1 9 6 8 ) , p . 4 2 5 . 1 8 4 I b i d . 1 8 5 I b i d . , p . 4 2 6 . P a u l F e y e r a b e n d , " A g a i n s t M e t h o d , " p p . 2 1 - 2 2 . 1 8 7 G r e g o r , o p . c i t . , p . 4 3 9 . • 1 8 8 I b i d . 1 8 9 I b i d . 1 9 0 W a l t h a m , M a s s . , X e r o x C o l l e g e P u b l i s h i n g , 1 9 7 1 . S e e a l s o , e . g . , A . I s a a c , S c o p e a n d M e t h o d o f P o l i t i c a l S c i e n c e , H o m e w o o d , 1 1 1 . , D o r s e y P r e s s , 1 9 6 9 . ^ 9 ^ M e e h a n ' s a p p r o a c h I n t h i s v o l u m e i s a t o d d s w i t h t h a t t a k e n i n h i s l a t e r E x p l a n a t i o n i n S o c i a l S c i e n c e , H o m e w o o d , 1 1 1 . , D o r s e y P r e s s , 1 9 6 8 , w h e r e h e d e v e l o p s a s t r o n g c a s e a g a i n s t t h e a d e q u a c y o f t h e d e d u c t i v e m o d e l o f e x p l a n a t i o n i n s o c i a l s c i e n c e . B u t t h i s s e c o n d b o o k , n o t b e i n g a d d r e s s e d s p e c i f i c a l l y t o p o l i t i c a l s c i e n c e , i s t e c h n i c a l l y n o t o f t h e c l a s s o f t e x t b o o k s I am d i s c u s s i n g h e r e . N e i t h e r i s K a p l a n ' s T h e C o n d u c t  o f I n q u i r y . B o t h t h e s e b o o k s , h o w e v e r , a r e o f t e n e m p l o y e d i n i n t r o d u c t o r y m e t h o d o l o g y c o u r s e s i n p o l i t i c a l s c i e n c e , t h u s a d d i n g s o m e m u c h n e e d e d b a l a n c e . F o r f u r t h e r c o m m e n t s o n t h e r o l e o f t e x t b o o k s , s e e M i c h a e l W. J a c k s o n , " T e x t b o o k s i n S o c i a l S c i e n t i f i c E d u c a t i o n : A V i e w f r o m P o l i t i c a l S c i e n c e , " T h e New S c h o l a r , v o l . 3 , n o . 2 ( 1 9 7 3 ) , p p . 2 1 1 - 2 0 . 1 9 2 T h i s , o f c o u r s e , i s a m a i n p o i n t o f S h e l d o n W o l i n ' s c r i t i q u e o f g r a d u a t e e d u c a t i o n i n p o l i t i c a l s c i e n c e . S e e " P o l i t i c a l T h e o r y a s a V o c a t i o n , " o p . c i t . 1 9 3 S e e , e . g . , L e w i s F . R i c h a r d s o n , A r m s a n d I n s e c u r i t y : A M a t h e - m a t i c a l S t u d y o f t h e C a u s e s a n d O r i g i n s o f W a r , P i t t s b u r g h a n d C h i c a g o , B o x w o o d a n d Q u a d r a n g l e , 1 9 6 0 ; P a u l S m o k e r , " F e a r i n t h e A r m s R a c e : A M a t h e m a t i c a l S t u d y , " J o u r n a l o f P e a c e R e s e a r c h , v o l . 1 ( 1 9 6 4 ) , p p . 5 5 -6 3 , " T h e A r m s R a c e : A Wave M o d e l , " ' P e a c e R e s e a r c h S o c i e t y ( I n t e r n a t i o n a l  P a p e r s , n o . 4 ( 1 9 6 6 ) , p p . 1 5 1 - 9 2 , " T h e A r m s R a c e a s a n O p e n a n d C l o s e d S y s t e m , " P e a c e R e s e a r c h S o c i e t y ( I n t e r n a t i o n a l ) P a p e r s , n o . 7 ( 1 9 6 7 ) , p p . 4 1 - 6 2 ; W i l l i a m R. C a s p a r y , " R i c h a r d s o n ' s M o d e l o f A r m s R a c e s : D e s c r i p t i o n , C r i t i q u e , a n d a n A l t e r n a t i v e M o d e l , " I n t e r n a t i o n a l S t u d i e s Q u a r t e r l y , v o l . 1 1 , n o . 1 ( M a r c h 1 9 6 7 ) , p p . 6 3 - 9 0 ; M u r r a y W o l f s o n , " M a t h e m a t i c a l M o d e l o f t h e C o l d W a r , " P e a c e R e s e a r c h S o c i e t y ( I n t e r n a t i o n a l ) P a p e r s , n o . 9 ( 1 9 6 8 ) , p p . 1 0 7 - 2 3 ; J e f f r e y S . M i l s t e i n a n d W i l l i a m C . M i t c h e l l , " C o m p u t e r S i m u l a t i o n o f I n t e r n a t i o n a l P r o c e s s e s : T h e V i e t n a m W a r a n d t h e P r e - W o r l d 1 4 2 W a r I N a v a l R a c e , " P e a c e R e s e a r c h S o c i e t y P a p e r s , n o . 1 2 ( 1 9 7 0 ) . 1 9 4 P e t e r A . B u s c h , " A p p e n d i x : M a t h e m a t i c a l M o d e l s o f A r m s R a c e s , " W h a t P r i c e V i g i l a n c e ? T h e B u r d e n s o f N a t i o n a l D e f e n s e , B r u c e M . R u s s e t t , New H a v e n a n d L o n d o n , Y a l e U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1 9 7 0 , p . 1 9 4 . 1 9 5 M i l s t e i n a n d M i t c h e l l , o p . c i t . S e e a l s o t h e v a r i o u s q u a n t i t a t i v e s t u d i e s o f t h e p r e - W o r l d W a r I p e r i o d b y R o b e r t N o r t h a n d N a z l i C h o u c r i , e . g . , " D y n a m i c s o f I n t e r n a t i o n a l C o n f l i c t : Some P o l i c y I m p l i c a t i o n s o f P o p u l a t i o n , R e s o u r c e s , a n d T e c h n o l o g y , " i n T a n t e r a n d U l l m a n , o p . c i t . , p p . 8 0 - 1 2 2 . 1 9 6 B u s h , o p . c i t . , p . 2 3 2 . 1 9 7 F o r f u r t h e r c r i t i c a l d i s c u s s i o n o f r e a c t i o n - p r o c e s s m o d e l s , s e e C a s p a r y , o p . c i t . ; M a r t i n C . M c G u i r e , S e c r e c y a n d t h e A r m s R a c e , C a m b r i d g e , M a s s . , H a r v a r d U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1 9 6 5 ; A n a t o l R a p o p o r t , F i g h t s , G a m e s , a n d D e b a t e s , A n n A r b o r , U n i v e r s i t y o f M i c h i g a n P r e s s , 1 9 6 0 ; T h o m a s L . S a a t y , M a t h e m a t i c a l M o d e l s o f A r m s C o n t r o l a n d D i s a r m a m e n t , New Y o r k , W i l e y , 1 9 6 8 ; J o h n C . H a r s a n y i , " M a t h e m a t i c a l M o d e l s f o r - t h e G e n e s i s o f W a r , " W o r l d P o l i t i c s , v o l . 1 4 , n o . 4 ( J u l y 1 9 6 2 ) , p p . 6 8 9 - 9 9 . 1 9 8 B u s c h , o p . c i t . , p p . 1 9 4 - 9 5 . 1 9 9 T h e b e s t o v e r a l l i n t r o d u c t i o n t o game t h e o r y i s R. D u n c a n L u c e a n d H o w a r d R a i f f a , Games a n d D e c i s i o n s , New Y o r k , W i l e y , 1 9 5 7 . S e e a l s o M a r t i n S h u b i k , E d . , Game T h e o r y a n d R e l a t e d A p p r o a c h e s t o S o c i a l B e h a v i o r , New Y o r k , W i l e y , 1 9 6 4 ; A n a t o l R a p o p o r t , T w o - P e r s o n Game T h e o r y , A n n A r b o r , U n i v e r s i t y o f M i c h i g a n P r e s s , 1 9 6 6 , N - P e r s o n Game T h e o r y , A n n A r b o r , U n i v e r s i t y o f M i c h i g a n P r e s s , 1 9 7 0 . S p e c i f i c a p p l i c a t i o n s t o i n t e r n a t i o n a l p o l i t i c s a r e o f f e r e d b y M o r t o n K a p l a n , S y s t e m a n d P r o c e s s i n I n t e r n a t i o n a l  P o l i t i c s , C h s . 9 - 1 1 ; T h o m a s S c h e l l i n g , T h e S t r a t e g y o f C o n f l i c t , C a m b r i d g e , M a s s . , H a r v a r d U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1 9 6 0 , A r m s a n d I n f l u e n c e , New H a v e n , Y a l e U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1 9 6 6 . ^ ^ F o r c r i t i q u e s o f t h e u s e o f game t h e o r y i n d e t e r r e n c e a n a l y s e s , s e e , e . g . , P h i l i p G r e e n , D e a d l y L o g i c , New Y o r k , S c h o c k e n , 1 9 6 8 ; A l e x a n d e r G e o r g e a n d R i c h a r d S m o k e , D e t e r r e n c e T h e o r y a n d P r a c t i c e , New Y o r k , C o l u m b i a U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1 9 7 4 ; K a r l D e u t s c h , T h e N e r v e s o f G o v e r n m e n t , C h . 4 , T h e A n a l y s i s o f I n t e r n a t i o n a l R e l a t i o n s , E n g l e w o o d C l i f f s , N . J . , P r e n t i c e - H a l l , 1 9 6 8 , e s p . p p , 1 1 2 - 3 2 ; T h o m a s M i l b u r n , " T h e C o n c e p t o f D e t e r r e n c e : Some L o g i c a l a n d P s y c h o l o g i c a l C o n s i d e r a t i o n s , J o u r n a l o f  S o c i a l I s s u e s , v o l . 1 7 , n o . 3 ( 1 9 6 1 ) ; A n a t o l R a p o p o r t , S t r a t e g y a n d  C o n s c i e n c e , New Y o r k , H a r p e r , 1 9 6 4 . 2 0 1 R i c h a r d S m o k e , " T h e N o r m a t i v e - P r e s c r i p t i v e M o d e l o f D e t e r r e n c e , " m i m e o . , H a r v a r d U n i v e r s i t y , 1 9 7 2 . T h i s i s s c h e d u l e d t o a p p e a r a s C h . 3 o f G e o r g e a n d S m o k e , o p . c i t . S c h e l l i n g , T h e S t r a t e g y o f C o n f l i c t , p . 1 6 3 . 143 203 I b i d . , p. 162, emphasis i n o r i g i n a l . Thomas S c h e l l i n g , "What i s Game Theory?" i n Comtemporary P o l i t i c a l  A n a l y s i s , Ed. James C. Charlesworth, New York, The Free P r e s s , 1967, pp. 219-20. 205 P r i n c e t o n , P r i n c e t o n U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1944. 206 For an i n c i s i v e c r i t i q u e of t h i s view of the c e n t r a l r o l e of the r a t i o n a l i t y p r i n c i p l e to economics, see Maurice G o d e l i e r , R a t i o n a l i t y  and I r r a t i o n a l i t y i n Economics, London, New L e f t Books, 1972. 207 van Neumann and Morgenstern, op. c i t . , pp. 89. . 208 Norman F r o l i c h and Joe A. Oppenheimer, An E n t r e p r e n e u r i a l Theory  of P o l i t i c s , unpublished Ph. D. d i s s . , P r i n c e t o n U n i v e r s i t y , 1971, " E n t r e p r e n e u r i a l P o l i t i c s and Foreign P o l i c y , " i n Tanter and Ullman, op. c i t . , pp. 151-78. 209 On a l l i a n c e s , see Mancur Olson, J r . and Richard Zeckhauser, "An Economic Theory of A l l i a n c e s , " i n Economic Theories of I n t e r n a t i o n a l  R e l a t i o n s , Ed. Bruce M. Russett, Chicago, Markham, 1968, pp. 25-45, " C o l l e c t i v e Goods, Comparative Advantage, and A l l i a n c e E f f i c i e n c y , " i n Issues i n Defense Economics. Ed. Roland N. McKean, New York, Columbia U n i v e r s i t y P ress, 1967, pp. 25-63. Leadership i s examined i n Norman F r o l i c h , Joe A. Oppenheimer, and Oran Young, P o l i t i c a l Leadership and  C o l l e c t i v e Goods, P r i n c e t o n , P r i n c e t o n U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1971. P a r t i c i -p a t i o n s t u d i e s i n c l u d e Mancur Olson, J r . , The Logic of C o l l e c t i v e A c t i o n , Cambridge, Mass., Harvard U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1965; A l b e r t and Raymond Breton, "An Economic Theory of S o c i a l Movements," American Economic  Review, v o l . 59 (May 1969), pp. 196-205; Robert H. S a l i s b u r y , "An Ex-change Theory of I n t e r e s t Groups," Midwest J o u r n a l of P o l i t i c a l Science, v o l . 13 (February 1969), pp. 1-32. 210 Young, "The P e r i l s of Odysseus," p. 191. On the a t t r i b u t e s of o l i g o p o l i s t i c markets, see Paul A. Samuelson, Economics, 5th ed., New York, McGraw-Hill, 1961, Ch. 25; and W i l l i a m J . F e l l n e r , Competition  Among the Few, New York, A l f r e d A. Knopf, 1949. 211 Kenneth Boulding, C o n f l i c t and Defense, A General Theory, New York, Harper Torchbooks, 1962, see p. v i i i . 212 Anthony Downs, In s i d e Bureaucracy, Boston, L i t t l e , Brown, and Co., 1967; Gordon T u l l o c k , The P o l i t i c s of Bureaucracy, Washington, D.C, P u b l i c A f f a i r s P r e s s , 1965. 213 See, e.g., Richard Neustadt, A l l i a n c e P o l i t i c s , New York, Columbia U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1970; Graham A l l i s o n and Morton H a l p e r i n , "Bureaucratic P o l i t i c s : A Paradigm and Some P o l i c y I m p l i c a t i o n s , " i n Tanter and Ullman, op. c i t . , pp. 40-79. 144 2 1 4 A n t h o n y D o w n s , A n E c o n o m i c T h e o r y o f D e m o c r a c y . N e w Y o r k , H a r p e r a n d R o w , 1 9 5 7 ; G o r d o n T u l l o c k a n d J a m e s M . B u c h a n a n , T h e C a l c u l u s o f  C o n s e n t : L o g i c a l F o u n d a t i o n s o f C o n s t i t u t i o n a l D e m o c r a c y , A n n A r b o r , U n i v e r s i t y o f M i c h i g a n P r e s s , 1 9 6 5 . 2 1 5 R . L . C u r r y a n d L . L . W a d e , A T h e o r y o f P o l i t i c a l E x c h a n g e : E c o n o m i c R e a s o n i n g i n P o l i t i c a l A n a l y s i s , E n g l e w o o d C l i f f s , N . J . , P r e n t i c e -H a l l , 1 9 6 8 . 2 1 6 2 1 7 2 1 8 2 1 9 f o l l o w s : R i k e r a n d O r d e s h o o k , o p . c i t . , p . 1 1 . I b i d . , p p . 1 1 - 1 2 . K a p l a n , o p . c i t . , p p . 3 1 7 - 1 8 , e m p h a s i s i n o r i g i n a l . L u c e a n d R a i f f a , o p . c i t . R i k e r p a r a p h r a s e s t h i s a s s u m p t i o n a s G i v e n a s o c i a l s i t u a t i o n i n w h i c h e x i s t t w o a l -t e r n a t i v e c o u r s e s o f a c t i o n l e a d i n g t o d i f f e r e n t o u t c o m e s a n d a s s u m i n g t h a t p a r t i c i p a n t s c a n o r d e r t h e s e o u t c o m e s o n a s u b j e c t i v e s c a l e o f p r e f e r e n c e , e a c h p a r t i c i p a n t w i l l c h o o s e t h e a l t e r n a t i v e l e a d i n g t o t h e m o s t p r e f e r r e d o u t c o m e . 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R a t i o n a l i t y a n d I r r a t i o n a l i t y i n E c o n o m i c s . L o n d o n , New L e f t B o o k s , 1 9 7 2 . G o o d m a n , N e l s o n . F a c t , F i c t i o n , a n d F o r e c a s t . I n d i a n a p o l i s , B o b b s -M e r r i l l C o . , 1 9 6 5 ( S e c o n d E d i t i o n ) . G r a h a m , G e o r g e J . M e t h o d o l o g i c a l F o u n d a t i o n s f o r P o l i t i c a l A n a l y s i s . W a l t h a m , M a s s . , X e r o x C o l l e g e P u b l i s h i n g , 1 9 7 1 . G r e e n , P h i l i p . D e a d l y L o g i c . New Y o r k , S c h o c k e n , 1 9 6 8 . G r e e n e , T h o m a s . " V a l u e s a n d t h e M e t h o d o l o g y o f P o l i t i c a l S c i e n c e . " C a n a d i a n J o u r n a l o f P o l i t i c a l S c i e n c e , v o l . 3 , n o . 2 ( J u n e 1 9 7 0 ) , p p . 2 7 5 - 9 8 . G r e g o r , A . J a m e s . " P o l i t i c a l S c i e n c e a n d t h e U s e s o f F u n c t i o n a l A n a l y s i s . " A m e r i c a n P o l i t i c a l S c i e n c e R e v i e w , v o l . 6 2 , n o . 2 ( J u n e 1 9 6 8 ) , p p . 4 2 5 - 3 9 . G u n n e l l , J o h n . " D e d u c t i o n , E x p l a n a t i o n , a n d S o c i a l S c i e n t i f i c I n q u i r y . " A m e r i c a n P o l i t i c a l S c i e n c e R e v i e w , v o l . 6 3 , n o . 4 ( D e c e m b e r 1 9 6 9 ) , p p . 1 2 3 3 - 4 6 . G u n n e l l , J o h n . " S o c i a l S c i e n c e a n d P o l i t i c a l R e a l i t y : T h e P r o b l e m o f E x p l a n a t i o n . " S o c i a l R e s e a r c h , v o l . 3 5 , n o . 1 ( S p r i n g 1 9 6 8 ) , p p . 1 5 9 - 2 0 1 . H a n s o n , N o r w o o d R. " L o g i c a l P o s i t i v i s m a n d t h e I n t e r p r e t a t i o n o f S c i -e n t i f i c T h e o r i e s . " T h e L e g a c y o f L o g i c a l P o s i t i v i s m , E d s . P e t e r A c h i n s t e i n a n d S t e p h e n F . B a r k e r , B a l t i m o r e , T h e J o h n H o p k i n s P r e s s , 1 9 6 9 , p p . 5 7 - 8 4 . H a n s o n , N o r w o o d R. O b s e r v a t i o n a n d E x p l a n a t i o n : A G u i d e t o P h i l o s o p h y  o f S c i e n c e . New Y o r k , H a r p e r a n d R o w , 1 9 7 1 . H a n s o n , N o r w o o d R. " O n t h e S y m m e t r y B e t w e e n E x p l a n a t i o n a n d P r e d i c t i o n . " T h e P h i l o s o p h i c a l R e v i e w , v o l . 6 8 ( 1 9 5 9 ) , p p . 3 4 9 - 5 8 . H a n s o n , N o r w o o d R. P a t t e r n s o f D i s c o v e r y . C a m b r i d g e , C a m b r i d g e U n i v e r -s i t y P r e s s , 1 9 6 1 . H a r s a n y i , J o h n C . " M a t h e m a t i c a l M o d e l s f o r t h e G e n e s i s o f W a r . " W o r l d  P o l i t i c s , v o l . 1 4 , n o . 4 ( J u l y 1 9 6 2 ) , p p . 6 8 9 - 9 9 . H e m p e l , C a r l G . A s p e c t s o f S c i e n t i f i c E x p l a n a t i o n . New Y o r k , T h e F r e e P r e s s , 1 9 6 5 . 1 5 0 H e m p e l , C a r l G . " D e d u c t i v e - N o m o l o g i c a l v s . S t a t i s t i c a l E x p l a n a t i o n . " M i n n e s o t a S t u d i e s i n t h e P h i l o s o p h y o f S c i e n c e : V o l . 3 , S c i e n t i f i c  E x p l a n a t i o n , S p a c e a n d T i m e , E d s . H e r b e r t F e i g l . a n d G r o v e r M a x w e l l , M i n n e a p o l i s , U n i v e r s i t y o f M i n n e s o t a P r e s s , 1 9 6 2 , p p . 9 8 - 1 6 9 . H e m p e l , C a r l G . F u n d a m e n t a l s o f C o n c e p t F o r m a t i o n i n t h e E m p i r i c a l S c i - e n c e s , v o l . 2 , n o . 7 o f T h e I n t e r n a t i o n a l E n c y c l o p e d i a o f U n i f i e d  S c i e n c e , C h i c a g o , U n i v e r s i t y o f C h i c a g o P r e s s , 1 9 5 2 . H e m p e l , C a r l G . " I n d u c t i v e I n c o n s i s t e n c i e s . " A s p e c t s o f S c i e n t i f i c E x - p l a n a t i o n , New Y o r k , T h e F r e e P r e s s , 1 9 6 5 , p p . 5 3 - 7 9 . H e m p e l , C a r l G . " O n t h e ' S t a n d a r d C o n c e p t i o n ' o f S c i e n t i f i c T h e o r i e s . " M i n n e s o t a S t u d i e s i n t h e P h i l o s o p h y o f S c i e n c e : V o l . 4 , A n a l y s i s  o f T h e o r i e s a n d M e t h o d s i n P h y s i c s a n d * P s y c h o l o g y , E d s . M i c h a e l R a d n e r a n d S t e p h e n W i n o k u r , M i n n e a p o l i s , U n i v e r s i t y o f M i n n e s o t a P r e s s , 1 9 7 0 , p p . 1 4 2 - 1 6 3 . H e m p e l , C a r l G . P h i l o s o p h y o f N a t u r a l S c i e n c e . E n g l e w o o d C l i f f s , P r e n t i c e - H a l l , I n c . , 1 9 6 6 . H e m p e l , C a r l G . " S t u d i e s i n t h e L o g i c o f C o n f i r m a t i o n . " A s p e c t s o f S c i e n t i f i c E x p l a n a t i o n , New Y o r k , T h e F r e e P r e s s , 1 9 6 5 , p p . 3 - 5 1 . H e m p e l , C a r l G . " T h e T h e o r e t i c i a n ' s D i l e m m a : A S t u d y i n t h e L o g i c o f T h e o r y C o n s t r u c t i o n . " A s p e c t s o f S c i e n t i f i c E x p l a n a t i o n , New Y o r k T h e F r e e P r e s s , 1 9 6 5 , p p . 1 7 3 - 2 2 6 . H e m p e l , C a r l G . a n d P a u l O p p e n h e i m . " S t u d i e s i n t h e L o g i c o f E x p l a n a t i o n . " A s p e c t s o f S c i e n t i f i c E x p l a n a t i o n , New Y o r k , T h e F r e e P r e s s , 1 9 6 5 , p p . 2 4 5 - 9 0 . H o l t , R o b e r t a n d R i c h a r d s o n , J o h n . " C o m p e t i n g P a r a d i g m s i n C o m p a r a t i v e R e s e a r c h . " T h e M e t h o d o l o g y o f C o m p a r a t i v e R e s e a r c h , E d s . R o b e r t H o l t a n d J o h n T u r n e r , New Y o r k , T h e F r e e P r e s s , 1 9 7 0 , p p . 2 1 - 7 1 . H o l t , R o b e r t a n d T u r n e r , J o h n . " T h e M e t h o d o l o g y o f C o m p a r a t i v e R e s e a r c h . " T h e M e t h o d o l o g y o f C o m p a r a t i v e R e s e a r c h , E d s . R o b e r t H o l t a n d J o h n T u r n e r , New Y o r k , T h e F r e e P r e s s , 1 9 7 0 , p p . 1 - 2 0 . H u l l , D a v i d . D a r w i n a n d h i s C r i t i c s . C a m b r i d g e , M a s s . , H a r v a r d U n i v e r -s i t y P r e s s , 1 9 7 3 . H u m p h r e y s , W i l l a r d C . A n o m a l i e s a n d S c i e n t i f i c T h e o r i e s . S a n F r a n c i s c o , F r e e m a n , C o o p e r , a n d C o . , 1 9 6 8 . I s a a c , A . S c o p e a n d M e t h o d o f P o l i t i c a l S c i e n c e . H o m e w o o d , 1 1 1 . , D o r s e y P r e s s , 1 9 6 9 . J a c k s o n , M i c h a e l W. " T h e A p p l i c a t i o n o f M e t h o d i n t h e C o n s t r u c t i o n o f P o l i t i c a l S c i e n c e T h e o r y . " C a n a d i a n J o u r n a l o f P o l i t i c a l S c i e n c e , v o l . 5 , n o . 3 ( S e p t e m b e r 1 9 7 2 ) , p p . 4 0 2 - 1 7 . 1 5 1 J a c k s o n , M i c h a e l W. " W o r d s a n d t h e W o r l d : K r e s s a n d Some Dogmas o f P r a g m a t i s m . " C a n a d i a n J o u r n a l o f P o l i t i c a l S c i e n c e , v o l . 7 , n o . 1 ( M a r c h 1 9 7 2 ) , p p . 1 4 8 - 5 4 . J a c k s o n , M i c h a e l W. " T e x t b o o k s i n S o c i a l S c i e n t i f i c E d u c a t i o n : A V i e w f r o m P o l i t i c a l S c i e n c e . " T h e New S c h o l a r , V o l . 3 , n o . 2 ( 1 9 7 3 ) , p p . 2 1 1 - 2 0 . J o e r g e n s e n , J o e r g e n . T h e D e v e l o p m e n t o f L o g i c a l E m p i r i c i s m . C h i c a g o , U n i v e r s i t y o f C h i c a g o P r e s s , 1 9 5 1 . K a p l a n , A b r a h a m . T h e C o n d u c t o f I n q u i r y . S a n F r a n c i s c o , C h a n d l e r , 1 9 6 4 . K a p l a n , M o r t o n A . M a c r o p o l i t i c s . C h i c a g o , A l d i n e P u b l i s h i n g C o . , 1 9 6 9 . K a p l a n , M o r t o n A . " T h e New G r e a t D e b a t e . " C o n t e n d i n g A p p r o a c h e s t o I n t e r n a t i o n a l P o l i t i c s , E d s . K l a u s K n o r r a n d J a m e s R o s e n a u , P r i n -c e t o n , P r i n c e t o n U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1 9 6 9 , p p . 3 9 - 6 1 . K a p l a n , M o r t o n A . " P r o b l e m s o f T h e o r y B u i l d i n g a n d T h e o r y C o n f i r m a t i o n i n I n t e r n a t i o n a l P o l i t i c s . " T h e I n t e r n a t i o n a l S y s t e m : T h e o r e t i c a l  E s s a y s , E d s . K l a u s K n o r r a n d S i d n e y V e r b a , P r i n c e t o n , P r i n c e t o n U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1 9 6 1 , p p . 6 - 2 4 . K a p l a n , M o r t o n A . S y s t e m a n d P r o c e s s i n I n t e r n a t i o n a l P o l i t i c s . New Y o r k , J o h n W i l e y a n d S o n s , 1 9 6 7 ( S e c o n d p r i n t i n g ) . K a r i e l , H e n r y . O p e n S y s t e m s . I t a s c a , 1 1 1 . , P e a c o c k , 1 9 6 9 . K n o r r , K l a u s a n d R o s e n a u , J a m e s ( E d s . ) C o n t e n d i n g A p p r o a c h e s t o I n t e r - n a t i o n a l P o l i t i c s . P r i n c e t o n , P r i n c e t o n U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1 9 6 9 . K r a f t , V i c t o r . T h e V i e n n a C i r c l e , t r a n s . A r t h u r P a p , New Y o r k , P h i l o s o p h i c a l L i b r a r y , 1 9 5 3 . K r e s s , P a u l F . " O n M e t h o d i n S c i e n c e : A R e p l y t o J a c k s o n . " C a n a d i a n  J o u r n a l o f P o l i t i c a l S c i e n c e , v o l . 7 , n o . 1 ( M a r c h 1 9 7 2 ) , p p . 1 4 3 - 1 4 8 . K u h n , T h o m a s . T h e S t r u c t u r e o f S c i e n t i f i c R e v o l u t i o n s . C h i c a g o , U n i -v e r s i t y o f C h i c a g o P r e s s , 1 9 7 0 ( S e c o n d e d i t i o n ) . K y b u r g , H . E . P h i l o s o p h y o f S c i e n c e : A F o r m a l A p p r o a c h . New Y o r k , M a c m i l l a n , 1 9 6 8 . L a n d a u , M a r t i n . " C o m m e n t : On O b j e c t i v i t y . " A m e r i c a n P o l i t i c a l S c i e n c e  R e v i e w , v o l . 6 6 , n o . 3 ( S e p t e m b e r 1 9 7 2 ) , p p . 8 4 6 - 5 6 . L a k a t o s , I m r e a n d M u s g r a v e , A l a n ( E d s . ) . C r i t i c i s m a n d t h e G r o w t h o f  K n o w l e d g e , C a m b r i d g e , C a m b r i d g e U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1 9 7 0 . 152 L o u c h , A . R . E x p l a n a t i o n a n d H u m a n A c t i o n . B e r k e l e y a n d L o s A n g e l e s , U n i v e r s i t y o f C a l i f o r n i a P r e s s , 1 9 6 6 . L u c e , R . D u n c a n a n d R a i f f a , H o w a r d . G a m e s a n d D e c i s i o n s . N e w Y o r k , W i l e y , 1 9 5 7 . 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" A S y s t e m i c A p p r o a c h t o - I n t e r n a t i o n a l P o l i t i c s , " R e s e a r c h M o n o g r a p h N o . 3 3 , C e n t e r f o r I n t e r n a t i o n a l S t u d i e s , P r i n c e t o n " U n i v e r -s i t y , J u n e " 3 0 , 1 9 6 8 . 

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