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Change management : a framework for community and regional planning Ramlo, Andrew Marlo 2000

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CHANGE M A N A G E M E N T A FRAMEWORK FOR COMMUNITY AND REGIONAL PLANNING by Andrew Mario Ramlo B . A . , The University of British Columbia, 1996 A THESIS S U B M I T T E D IN P A R T I A L F U L F I L M E N T OF T H E R E Q U I R E M E N T S F O R T H E D E G R E E O F M A S T E R OF A R T S (Planning) in T H E F A C U L T Y OF G R A D U A T E STUDIES The School of Community and Regional Planning We accept this thesis as conforming to the required standard T H E U N I V E R S I T Y O F B R I T I S H C O L U M B I A Apr i l 2000 © Andrew Mario Ramlo, 2000 In presenting this thesis in partial fulfillment of the requirements for an advanced degree at the University of British Columbia, I agree that the Library shall make it freely available for reference and study. I further agree that permission for extensive copying of this thesis for scholarly purposes may be granted by the head of my department or by his or her representatives. It is understood that copying or publication of this thesis for financial gain shall not be allowed without my written permission. Department of The University of British Columbia Vancouver, Canada Change Management: Page ii A Framework for Community and Regional Planning Abstract Planning is the ultimate expression of a community responding to growth and change, shaping its future through a collective set o f values, goals and strategies. Over the past four decades planning policies and practices have largely focused on issues related to the growth of urban regions. Given the realms of change that w i l l shape communities over the coming decades, these policies and practices need to reorient themselves away from aggregate notions of growth and towards the relevant agents of change. The goal of this research is to articulate a framework for the investigation of issues that w i l l shape communities over the coming four decades; specifically how demographic change w i l l impact on the future of community housing, land and financial resources. Although it presents one region as a case study (the Central Okanagan Regional District in Brit ish Columbia, Canada) the framework is intended to be used by any community or region to evaluate the extent of demographic change and its impact on issues related to community and regional planning. The first f inding of the framework shows that over any strategic time horizon planning issues wi l l be related to changes in a population's composition rather than aggregate notions of its growth. It is the patterns of l ifecycle and lifestyle change that w i l l shape issues ranging from land uses, housing markets and transportation demand to school enrolment, medical requirements or even funeral services. None of which can be accurately represented by the aggregate size of a region's population, as each are impacted by changes in its underlying composition. The second finding is that it is current residents, rather than new migrants to the region, that w i l l direct changes in the age composition of a population. This leads to the assertion that we have a good approximation of the region's future population in those who are residents today: they wi l l be slightly older, wiser and possibly a little wearier. Final ly, this research also calls attention to a substantial lack of information. A lack of information concerning the fundamental processes of community change, and a lack of information regarding the economic, environmental and social costs associated with the location, density and timing of future development. Most importantly, current planning decisions are still largely predicated on aggregate notions of population growth, without sufficient information about the external costs and tradeoffs associated with these decisions. The future quality o f life in any region w i l l be directly determined by the degree to which both planning jurisdictions and the general public acknowledge and, more importantly, choose to respond to the challenges presented by change. Change Management: Page iii A Framework for Community and Regional Planning Table of Contents Page Table of Contents i List of Figures and Tables -s Chapter One: Introduction ... 1 1.1 Problem Statement 2 1.2 Case Study: The Central Okanagan Regional District and the City of Kelowna, BC 5 1.3 Research Goals and Objectives 5 1.4 Research Questions 6 1.5 Research Structure 6 1.6 Research Methods 6 Endnotes 7 Chapter Two: Growth Management 8 2.1 Defining growth management 8 2.2 Historical Perspectives on growth management 10 2.3 The Management Debate 13 2.4 Growth Management in British Columbia 15 2.5 Growth Management in the Central Okanagan Regional District 17 2.6 Future Directions — Managing for Change 17 2.7 Conclusions 18 Endnotes 19 Chapter Three: Population Projections: The Foundation of a Framework for Change 20 3.1 Establishing the Context: The History of Change in the Central Okanagan 21 3.2 Components of Population Change 26 3.2.1 Natural Change 28 a. Aging 28 b. Mortality 29 c. Natality 33 d. Natural Change 35 e. The Results of Change 36 3.2.2 Migration 39 a. Intra-provincial Migration 40 b. Inter-provincial Migration 43 c. International Migration 46 3.3 Future Long Run Levels of Migratory Flows 48 a. Intra-provincial migration 49 b. Inter-provincial migration 49 c. Net International Migration 49 3.4 Baseline Projection, 1999 to 2040 50 3.5 Conclusions 56 Endnotes 59 Page iv Chapter Four: Housing Demand: The Link Between Population and Land Use 60 4.1 Age Specific Household Maintainer Rates 60 4.1.2 Structure Types 63 4.1.3 Changing Household Maintainer Rates 66 4.2 Housing Demand in the Central Okanagan Regional District, 1999 to 2040 69 4.2.1 A n Overview of 1999 to 2040 Increases in Demand 69 4.2.2 Patterns of Change From 1999 to 2040 72 4.2.3 Addit ional Annual Housing Demand by Detailed Structure Type 73 4.3 Conclusions 74 Endnotes 75 Chapter Five: Land Use and Financial Aspects of Change: Evaluating Options 76 5.1 Three Scenarios for the Sharing of Population Growth 77 5.2 Ke lowna Land Use Change, 1961 to 1996 81 5.3 Three Scenarios for the Conversion of Land to Residential Uses 83 5.3.1 Land Use Change in the Central Okanagan Regional District, 1999 to 2040 84 5.4 The Direct Costs of Accommodating Change 85 5.4.1 On-Site Infrastructure Requirements 86 5.4.2 Per Unit Infrastructure Costs 89 a. On-site development costs 89 b. Off-site development costs 90 5.4.3 The Cost of land 91 5.5 Costs of development in the Ci ty of Kelowna, 1999 to 2040 91 a. Population Scenario I: Kelowna's Decl ining Share of Regional Population 92 b. Population Scenario II: Kelowna's Constant Share of Regional Population 93 c. Population Scenario III: Kelowna's Increasing Share of Regional Population 93 d. Summary 94 5.6 Costs of development outside the Ci ty of Kelowna, 1999 to 2040 94 a. Population Scenario I: Kelowna's Decl ining Share of Regional Population 95 b. Population Scenario II: Kelowna's Constant Share of Regional Population 96 c. Population Scenario III: Kelowna's Increasing Share of Regional Population 96 d. Summary 97 5.7 Costs of development in the Central Okanagan Regional District 1999 to 2040 97 a. Population Scenario I: Kelowna's Decl in ing Share of Regional Population 98 b. Population Scenario II: Kelowna's Constant Share of Regional Population 99 c. Population Scenario III: Kelowna's Increasing Share of Regional Population 99 d. Summary 99 5.8 External Costs of Development 100 5.9 The Opportunity Cost of Land 101 5.10 Conclusions 102 Endnotes 103 Chapter Six: Conclusions and Management Implications 104 6.1 Conclusions 105 6.2 Final Remarks 110 Appendix One HI Bibliography H2 Change Management: A Framework for Community and Regional Planning List of Figures, Tables and Maps Figures: Figure 1: Population of the Central Okanagan Regional District, 1971 to 1999 23 Figure 2: Net Annual Population Growth, Central Okanagan Regional District, 1921 to 1999 24 Figure 3: Population of the Central Okanagan Regional District by Age and Sex, 1971 and 1999.. 24 Figure 4: Components of Net Annual Population Growth, Central Okanagan Regional District, 1991 to 1998 27 Figure 5: Ag ing of the Central Okanagan Regional District 's 1999 Population to 2009 28 Figure 6: Annual Number of Deaths, Central Okanagan Regional District, 1975 to 1998 30 Figure 7: Average Age Specific Death Rates, Central Okanagan Regional District, Averaged, 1991 to 1996, L o g Scale 30 Figure 8: Ma le Mortal i ty Rates, 1921 to 2040, Selected Age Groups 31 Figure 9: Ag ing and Mortal i ty o f the Central Okanagan Regional District 's 1999 Population to 2009 32 Figure 10: Number o f Births, Central Okanagan Regional District, 1975 to 1998 33 Figure 11: Age Specific Bir th Rates, Okanagan Regional District, 1996 34 Figure 12: Brit ish Columbia Age Specific Bir th Rates, 1921 to 2040 34 Figure 13: Ag ing, Mortal i ty and Births of the Central Okanagan Regional Distr ict 's 1999 Population to 2009 36 Figure 14: Central Okanagan Regional District 's Population, 1971 to 1999, Projected to 2040 Assuming N o Migrat ion 37 Figure 15: Projected Dependency Ratios, Central Okanagan Regional District, 1999 to 2040, Assuming N o Migrat ion 37 Figure 16: Projected Increase in the Central Okanagan Regional Distr ict 's Population by Age Group, 1999 to 2040 39 Figure 17: Intra-Provincial In-Migration, Central Okanagan Regional District, 1991 to 1998 40 Figure 18: Age Distribution of Resident and Intra-Provincial In-Migrant Populations, Central Okanagan Regional District, 1991-1996 Annual Average 41 Figure 19: Intra-Provincial Out-Migration, Central Okanagan Regional District, 1991 to 1998 42 Figure 20: Age Distribution of Resident and Intra-Provincial Out-Migrant Populations, Central Okanagan Regional District, 1991-1996 Annual Average 42 Figure 21: In-Migration From Other Provinces, Central Okanagan Regional District, 1991 to 1998 43 Figure 22: Age Distribution of Resident and Inter-Provincial In-Migrant Populations, Central Okanagan Regional District, 1991-1996 Annual Average 44 Figure 23: Inter-Provincial Out-Migration, Central Okanagan Regional District, 1991 to 1998 45 Figure 24: Age Distribution of Resident and Inter-Provincial Out-Migrant Populations, Central Okanagan Regional District, 1991-1996 Annual Average 46 Figure 25: Net Immigration to the Central Okanagan Regional District, 1991 to 1998 47 Figure 26: Age Distribution of Resident and Net Immigrant Populations, Central Okanagan Regional District, 1991-1996 Annual Average 48 Figure 27: Net International, Net Inter-Provincial and Net Intra-Provincial Migrat ion Central Okanagan Regional District, 1991 to 2040 50 Figure 28: Population Growth, Central Okanagan Regional District, 1971 to 1999, Projected to 2040 51 Figure 29: Natural Increase, Central Okanagan Regional District, 1991 to 1999, Projected to 2040 51 Figure 30: Projected Dependency Ratios, Baseline Scenario, Central Okanagan Regional District, 1999 to 2040 52 Figure 31: Age Profi le o f the Central Okanagan Regional District, 1971 to 2040 53 Page vi Figure 32: Projected Increase in the Central Okanagan Regional District 's Population by Age Group, 1999 to 2040 54 Figure 33: Growth Indices by Age Group, Central Okanagan Regional District, 1999 to 2040 55 Figure 34: Projected Increase in the Central Okanagan Regional Distr ict 's Population by Age Group, 1999 to 2040 57 Figure 35: Trend Based Projection, Central Okanagan Regional District, 1999 to 2040 58 Figure 36: Population of Bri t ish Columbia, 5 Years of Age and Older by Mobi l i ty Status, 1996 ... 59 Figure 37: Age Specif ic Household Maintainer Rates, Central Okanagan Regional District, 1996.62 Figure 38: Household Maintainer Rates by Age and Major Structure Type, Central Okanagan Regional District, 1996 64 Figure 39: Household Maintainer Rates by Age and Detailed Structure Type, Central Okanagan Regional District, 1996 65 Figure 40: Ground Oriented Household Maintainer Rates by Age, Bri t ish Columbia, 1961tol996 66 Figure 41: Apartment Household Maintainer Rates by Age, Bri t ish Columbia, 1961 to 1996 67 Figure 42: Change in Household Maintainer Rates by Age and Major Structure Types, Central Okanagan Regional District, 1991 to 1996 68 Figure 43: Change in Household Maintainer Rates by Age and Ground-Oriented Structure Types, Central Okanagan Regional District, 1991 to 1996 69 Figure 44: Change in Household Maintainer Rates by Age and Apartment Structure Types, Central Okanagan Regional District, 1991 to 1996 69 Figure 45: Addit ional Occupancy Demand, Central Okanagan Regional District, 1999 to 2040 71 Figure 46: Addit ional Occupancy Demand, Central Okanagan Regional District, N o Growth Scenario, 1999 to 2040 72 Figure 47: Projected Annual Addit ional Housing Demand, Central Okanagan Regional District, N o Growth Scenario, 1999 to 2040 73 Figure 48: Projected Annual Addit ional Housing Demand by Detailed Structure Type, Central Okanagan Regional District, N o Growth Scenario, 1999 to 2040 74 Figure 49: Total Occupancy Demand, Central Okanagan Regional District, 1999 to 2040 75 Figure 50: Population, Ci ty o f Kelowna, 1976 to 1999 77 Figure 51: Population, Ci ty o f Kelowna, 1976 to 1999, Projected to 2040 78 Tables: Table 1: Population Growth Scenarios, Ke lowna and the Central Okanagan Regional District, 1998 to 2040 79 Table 2: Housing Growth Scenarios, Kelowna and the Central Okanagan Regional District, 1998 to 2040 80 Table 3: Cumulative Land Conversion Scenarios, Kelowna and the Central Okanagan Regional District, 1998 to 2040 85 Table 4: Site Requirements for Traditional Development 86 Table 5: Site Requirements for Moderate Suburban Development 87 Table 6: Site Requirements for Compact Suburban and Infil l 88 Table 7: Cost Requirements Residential Development 90 Table 8: Present Value of Infrastructure and Land Costs, Kelowna, 1999 to 2040 92 Table 9: Present Value of Infrastructure and Land Costs, Outside the Ci ty o f Kelowna, 1999 to 2040 95 Table 10: Present Value of Infrastructure and Land Costs, Central Okanagan Regional District, 1999 to 2040 9S M a p s : Map 1: Kelowna, 1961 81 Map 2: Ke lowna 1996 82 Change Management: A Framework for Community and Regional Planning Introduction "Change and recurrence are the sense of being alive - - things gone by, death to come and present awareness. The world around us, so much of it our own creation, shifts continually and often bewilders us. We reach out to that world to preserve or to change it and so to make visible our desires. The arguments ofplanning then all come down to the management of change" (Kevin Lynch, 1972 p.l) Planning is the ultimate expression of a community responding to growth and change, shaping its future through a collective set of values, goals and strategies. It is a community saying what it wants the future to be like, and what it needs to do in order to achieve it. Planning therefore means being both idealists and pragmatists; communities have to envision what they want to be like in the future, but in doing so they also need to be pragmatic about their visions and what can reasonably be done to make them reality. Over the next four decades communities throughout British Columbia and North America are going to experience change of an unprecedented character. The degree to which planning anticipates, responds to and directs these changes will be the key factor in determining whether community visions and goals are achieved. Effective planning must go beyond simple expressions of visions and goals to include implementation strategies for realizing the opportunities that change will present. Many of the changes that communities face will be demographic; a number of communities within the province ~ specifically those in south central BC, on south east Vancouver Island and those in and adjacent to the province's major metropolitan core ~ will experience significant growth in population. Others ~ such as those in the province's resource extraction regions - will experience little growth or even absolute declines in their resident populations. Of the 28 Regional Districts in the Province, only 24 are projected to grow in population, one to maintain its current size and three are projected to see absolute declines in residents over the coming 25 years1. Although not all communities will grow in absolute terms, all will experience a dramatic change in the age composition of their resident populations. Over the next 25 years regions in the province will move from a situation today where one in eight people are over the age of 65 to A Framework for Community and Regional Planning • Chapter 1 Page 2 one by 2026 where one in four are eligible for Canada Pension Plan benefits and senior citizen discounts on B C Ferries. Many changes will be economic. Those communities who are able to take advantage of local resources and amenities will see local economies grow and expand. Others will experience economic decline as traditional economic sectors either contract in absolute terms as a result of changes in resource and commodity markets, or in relative terms as new industries and economic sectors grow faster than traditional ones. Once again, although economic growth will not grace all communities, transformational change will see economic activity re-orient itself towards emerging local, provincial and international markets. Some local economies will grow, others may not, but all will inevitably change in response to local and global economic transformation. As some changes result in net benefits and others exact some form of net cost, communities throughout the province will also face changes in their fiscal environments. Lower levels of government are continually being faced with downloading of responsibilities from senior levels of government and shrinking budgets to carry out these and other required tasks. Over the coming decades, growing demand for services from a "greying" population will be increasingly pitted against the downloading of both service delivery and costs from senior levels of government. The resultant fiscal restructuring will require communities to seek alternative sources of revenue and more effective means of allocating community resources. Therefore, although growth will not be experienced uniformly throughout the province, change will become a defining characteristic of the future of each and every community, in a demographic sense as the percentage of seniors doubles over the next quarter century, in an economic sense as local industries grow, decline or re-invent themselves, and in a fiscal sense as communities struggle to accommodate and provide services for changing residents. 1.1 Problem Statement Within this context of demographic, economic and fiscal change, communities will be concerned with land use and infrastructure management that will lead to the achievement of community objectives with respect to environmental enhancement and quality of life. As land is one of the most important community assets, the formulation of a comprehensive set of change management objectives to guide land use will be the easier of the tasks; it will be the implementation and achievement of these objectives that will present the greatest difficulties. Throughout North America techniques to guide these goals and strategies have changed considerably over the past two decades. Within the rubric of planning practice, "management" A Framework for Community and Regional Planning Chapter 1 Page 3 approaches have evolved from early containment models that sought to stop urban sprawl and metropolitan growth, to regional practices that sought to manage the expansion o f city spaces and finally to more ambitious notions of achieving "sustainable" community growth. Since the early 1970's, growth management has clearly emerged as an important sub field in public pol icy; yet to this date the research agenda needed to inform discussions of growth management issues has not been formulated in any systematic way 2 . One significant development for growth management in the province of Bri t ish Columbia was the establishment of Regional Districts in 1965. Segmenting the province into 28 regions provided planning authority that was intended to be more representative of the particularities of each region. However, by the early 1980's increasing concern about the effectiveness of regional planning led to legislation being passed that removed the regional mandate from planning practices. It would not be until the mid 1990's, when concerns over a lack of coordination on strategic management issues between municipalities and Regional Districts, would the merits of management at the regional level would be reconsidered. The Growth Strategies Act enacted in 1995 was intended to update the province's planning system in response to these concerns, establishing a system that could "maintain l ivabi l i ty" whi le responding effectively to "challenges of continued growth" 3 . It was believed that until perceived fundamental deficiencies in the planning system were overcome, serious obstacles existed that prevented local governments from effectively addressing the problems associated with rapid growth such as air pollution, traffic congestion, loss of green space or lack of affordable housing. A s indicated by the focus of planning in the province of Bri t ish Columbia and elsewhere in North Amer ica, planning professionals along with their associated policies and practices have been largely focused on issues related to the growth and expansion of urban regions. Even in academic circles writings and discussions focus on stopping, containing or mitigating damages caused by growth. Given the realms of change that w i l l shape regions and communities throughout the province over the coming decades, the landscape of planning practice has changed and is cal l ing for a new comprehensive theory to replace outmoded planning principles, practices and pol icy tools. These policies and practices wi l l increasingly need to reorient themselves away from a focus on aggregate notions of growth and towards the relevant agents of change that constitute it. A s an illustration of change without growth, consider the three Regional Districts in the province that are not projected to grow over the next two decades. Although each are not A Framework for Community and Regional Planning Chapter 1 Page 4 projected to grow, all w i l l experience a dramatic change in the age composition of their population. More specifically, each of the Mont Waddington, Alberni Clayquot, and Peace River Regional Districts are projected to see declines in their resident populations by between 1% and 13% between 1999 and 2026; each are also projected to experience between 48% and 350% increases in specific age cohorts over the age of 55. Although aggregate population is projected to decline, this growth in the 55 plus age groups wi l l lead to a net increase in housing demand of between 3% and 23% in each of these regions. These changes w i l l have an impact on land resources in each of these regions; the absence of aggregate population growth does not imply that there is no need for management and planning. Fundamental change wi l l become increasingly important in defining development trajectories, in identifying pol icy issues and in framing innovative planning responses 4. Three linked developments w i l l become critical in changing the focus and quality of planning carried on within the framework of management systems today. The first w i l l be the emphasis on efficiency — ensuring that goals and objectives recognize the relevant agent of change and are matched to community needs. The second wi l l be an emphasis on implementation — giving communities the techniques needed to ensure that goals and policies are carried out so as to make a difference. The third is funding — both with regard to support for the new plans and implementation actions mandated by the systems. The goal o f this research is to articulate a framework for the investigation of issues that w i l l shape communities over the coming four decades. A s managing change requires a method for representing it, this research wi l l establish the framework for the analysis of growth and change. The framework outlines specifically how population is projected to change in terms of its age structure and how this change w i l l impact on the future of housing and community land resources. A s land is one of the most important community assets (of which housing is the most prominent use), land use change is one of the most important aspects of community and regional planning. Establishing a framework for analysis and improving data in this field w i l l assist in the illustration of emerging community trends and the development of a more comprehensive understanding of the impacts of community change. A greater understanding of the implications of community change is fundamental to future public policies and practices to ensure changes can be taken advantage of, rather than being negatively impacted by them. A Framework for Community and Regional Planning Chapter 1 Page 5 1.2 Case Study: The Central Okanagan Regional District and the City of Kelowna, B C A l t h o u g h th is research c o u l d be conduc ted in a concep tua l manner , it is more use fu l to dea l w i t h a spec i f i c c o m m u n i t y : the C i t y o f K e l o w n a and the C e n t r a l O k a n a g a n R e g i o n a l D i s t r i c t o f B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a have been chosen as a focus for this research. T h i s reg ion wa s selected for two reasons. F i r s t , the O k a n a g a n has become a popu la r ret i rement dest inat ion fo r seniors th roughout C a n a d a . D e m o g r a p h i c a l l y , th is has resu l ted in an age p ro f i l e that is s l i gh t l y o lde r than that seen in the rest o f the p rov ince : in the Cen t ra l Okanagan today app rox ima te l y one in s i x peop le are over the age o f 65 , w h i l e the rat io at the p r o v i n c i a l leve l is one in eight. T h e s i tuat ion o f a rap id l y " g r e y i n g " popu la t i on seen in the C e n t r a l Okanagan w i l l be one w h i c h is exper ienced by a l l commun i t i es throughout the p rov ince as the bu l k o f the post W o r l d W a r II baby b o o m generat ion ages into the empty nester and ret i rement stages o f the l i f ecyc le over the c o m i n g four decades. S e c o n d , in add i t ion to h a v i n g d i ve rs i f i ed a w a y f r o m h is to r i ca l t ies to p r ima ry sector e c o n o m i c ac t i v i t y , the Cen t ra l Okanagan has estab l ished i t se l f as a reg iona l e c o n o m i c and admin is t ra t ive centre, o f fe r ing a w i d e range o f goods , serv ice ac t iv i t y and ameni t ies to l ower order commun i t i es that sur round it. In d o i n g so, the reg ion has fostered g rowth in each o f the resource, ret i rement and recreat ion sectors. S ign i f i can t investment into these sectors has a l l o w e d the Cen t ra l O k a n a g a n to r ide out p rov i nc i a l e c o n o m i c peaks and t roughs that su r round ing R e g i o n a l D is t r i c t s have not weathered as w e l l . A s this reg ion p rov ides a g o o d demograph ic p rescr ip t ion o f where other commun i t i es w i l l f i nd themselves ove r the c o m i n g decades, it a lso p rov ides s ign i f i can t ins ight into wha t sectors o f the e c o n o m y other reg ions in the p rov ince are at tempt ing to d i ve rs i f y towards . T h u s , c h o o s i n g the Cen t ra l O k a n a g a n as a case study a l l o w s fo r the ana lys is o f the aggregate referred to as growth and , more impor tant ly , the componen ts o f change that const i tute it or are concea led by it. 1.3 Research Goals and Objectives T h e goa l o f th is research is to p rov ide a f r amework fo r the e v o l v i n g d i scuss ions about change management in the p rov ince o f B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a us ing the spec i f i c e x a m p l e o f the Cen t ra l Okanagan R e g i o n a l D is t r i c t . A l t h o u g h th is research focuses on one R e g i o n a l D is t r i c t , the f r amework it presents is in tended to be used by other commun i t i es and reg ions to evaluate the impac ts o f d e m o g r a p h i c and land use change and poss ib le a l ternat ives presented by these changes. A Framework for Community and Regional Planning Chapter 1 Page 6 1.4 Research Questions This thesis articulates a framework to assist in answering four questions essential to community and regional management and planning: 1. What are the sources and characteristics o f demographic change that regions wi l l face? 2. What changes w i l l demographic change have on communities? 3. What are the land use and housing implications of demographic change, and 4. What are the direct and indirect costs of land use change? 1.5 Research Structure The research questions addressed throughout this thesis form the basis for measuring the extent of population change and the impact it w i l l bring to housing markets, land resources and capital costs in the Central Okanagan Regional District. A s the foundation of change within any region wi l l come from the people who live there, to answer the above research questions, the first component o f the research framework outlines the nature and extent o f population growth and change in the Central Okanagan Regional District between 1999 and 2040. Once this basis o f change has been established, the framework examines the extent to which housing markets w i l l be impacted by population change, including the location, number and form that new housing development wi l l take to accommodate future changes in demand. In order to illustrate the range of possible tradeoffs that land use planning may provide in the future, the research then turns to some of the consequences of where and how this change can be accommodated. This section considers the potential amount o f land that w i l l need to be converted to residential uses and the associated financial costs o f providing infrastructure and servicing given a range of forms for future development in the city of Ke lowna and the Central Okanagan Regional District. 1.6 Research Methods The most important component for any evaluative planning framework is the development o f an age and sex specific population forecast. There are three reasons for its importance. First, with an overriding focus on growth, population projections are often not considered by age and sex, but are generally projections of an aggregate population figure into the future. Second, in examining the individual components o f growth and change, it is important to be explicit about the assumptions that the model is constructed around, something that is not possible with second party projections. Third, it is necessary to begin the analysis at A Framework for Community and Regional Planning Chapter 1 ' Page 7 the finest level of detail possible, as population change forms the basis from which the detailed housing, land use and capital cost projections are based, three issues of population growth and change that are not currently addressed in many regions or communities in the province. Throughout this research the framework carries with it a certain level of specificity5. This level of detail was necessary for two reasons. First, as research on the impacts of population have traditionally focused on growth, a high degree of detail is needed to allow the research to be used beyond the formulation of broad planning principles which abound in planning documents, but are rarely put in to any form of practice. Second, this level of detail was necessary to inform the general public of the challenges that will be presented to them over the coming decades. This last point is the one of the keys to the framework, in that it is through the public becoming more aware of their impact that more effective planning goals, objectives, strategies and finally practices be established. Endnotes 1 B C S t a t i s t i c s , P E O P L E 2 3 . 1 9 9 8 . 2 D e G r o v e , J . M . , " G r o w t h M a n a g e m e n t a n d G o v e r n a n c e " i n U n d e r s t a n d i n g G r o w t h M a n a g e m e n t C r i t i c a l I s s u e s a n d a R e s e a r c h A g e n d a ; T h e U r b a n L a n d I n s t i t u t e , 1 9 8 9 . 3 M i n i s t r y o f M u n i c i p a l A f f a i r s , G r o w t h S t r a t e g i e s f o r t h e 1 9 9 0 ' s a n d B e y o n d . 1 9 9 4 , p . 1 . 4 H u t t o n , T h o m a s A . , " S t r u c t u r a l C h a n g e a n d t h e U r b a n P o l i c y C h a l l e n g e " i n C i t y R e g i o n s . S e p t e m b e r 1 9 9 6 . 5 A l l n u m e r i c a l r e f e r e n c e s m a d e t h r o u g h o u t t h e f r a m e w o r k h a v e n o t b e e n r o u n d e d t o a n y d e g r e e . T h i s i s n o t t o s u g g e s t a n y s p e c i f i c l e v e l o f a c c u r a c y i n t h e p r o j e c t i o n s , b u t s i m p l y a l l o w s t h e n u m b e r s t h r o u g h o u t t h e r e p o r t t o b e t o t a l e d t o 1 0 0 % b y t h e r e a d e r . T h i s a v o i d s h a v i n g t o c o n t i n u a l l y q u a l i f y t h a t " n u m b e r s m a y n o t a d d t o 1 0 0 % d u e t o r o u n d i n g " , a n d a v o i d s m i s r e p r e s e n t a t i o n o f t h e n u m b e r s . PageS Growth Management "when I lie awake at night in Newton (a Boston suburb that is experiencing further development in the absence of population growth) and worry about the security of my environment, I worry about these developments increasing traffic on my street, affecting my route to work, make parking even harder or spoiling the visual setting I enjoy from the window of my house or my car" (Benjamin Chinitz, 1990p.4) As Benjamin Chinitz, Director of research at the Lincoln Institute of Land Policy, observes in the introduction to his 1990 article Growth Management, Good for the Town, Badfor the Nation?, "unmanaged growth depletes the capacity of nature to support economic activity, a high standard of living and ultimately life itself'1. Later in the article, commenting on the situation seen in his own community, Chinitz highlights the myopia of current planning theories, policies and related practices. In writing about his community changing in the face of no population growth (above), Chinitz must ask himself: if growth management is predicated on the notion of growth, does the absence of growth imply no need for management? Given what he himself is experiencing in his community, his answer would be an astounding no. What Chinitz acknowledges but fails to realize in this long term view of growth management is how all aspects of community life can be altered by processes of community change that are independent from aggregate notions of growth. 2.1 Defining growth management Like many theories, growth management has endured a rather inconsistent existence. Depending on one's perspective, growth management is either seen as a panacea or a hollow promise2. Problems have arisen partly as a result of its somewhat amorphous meaning with definitions ranging from citizen led efforts to stop population growth absolutely, to ones that focus on the need to plan rationally to accommodate the impact of growth to ensure a balance between the environment, the economy and society3. Although there is still wide variation on how the term is defined, an even wider gulf exists between its major proponents and opponents over issues ranging from social equality, environmental sensibility, economic viability and land use efficiency. Often formalized in terms of land use controls, those in favour of growth management associate growth with a host of A Framework for Community Change Chapter 2 Page 9 negative externalities, including congestion, crime, pollution and overall decline in the quality of urban l i fe 4 . In this context, growth management techniques are used to control the amount, t iming and location of population growth in a region. Opponents argue that it is the growth management techniques themselves (largely growth controls) that have resulted in continued suburban sprawl, increasing housing prices, conversion of open and agricultural land to urban uses and growing negative impacts on regional air and watersheds. Regardless of whether growth management is efficient in achieving its stated objectives, one fact that everyone agrees upon (regardless o f their approach) is that at the base o f growth management are tradeoffs. The challenge in managing growth is then not to adhere to any specific paradigm, but to identify where tradeoffs exist, and how a balance can be struck between diversifying interests. Historical ly, management and control of growth have been synonymous. Efficient management of land resources was equated with the need to control the rate of population growth to ensure that it did not degrade the quality of life in a particular region. A s such, growth management has often been used to placate those opposed to change. This is illustrated through the Encyclopedia o f Community Planning and Development defining growth management as the "implementation of government regulations that control the type, location, quality, scale, sequence or timing of development. The prohibitions contained in a traditional zoning ordinance are a form of growth management, but the term implies a much greater involvement of local government in development decisions. Sophisticated growth management systems are closely tied to comprehensive land use plans and specific development policies." Fol lowing this focus on control, growth management practices have traditionally been grouped into the fol lowing categories as defined by Burrows (1978) and Dowal l (1981). • Limitations on the level of intensity of development permitted (subdivision control and zoning) • Control over design and performance standards (subdivision and design control) • Reallocation of development costs from public to private developers (development cost charges, facilities ordinances, impact fees, amenity cost charges) • Control the supply or location of developable land (urban growth boundaries, agricultural or residential land use reserves) • Control over the rate of growth (population caps, housing caps, annual development permit caps) More recent views of growth management are re-evaluating the definition of the term itself, emphasizing a greater degree of management rather than control. Prompted by the realization that growth is largely beyond local control, and significant opportunities exist through A Framework for Community Change Chapter 2 Page 10 community growth and development, so-called "Smart Growth" programs see growth as much a part of the solution as it is the perceived problem. Rather than pitting growth control policies against those that favoured growth, these Smart Growth trends focus on removing existing barriers to development, permitting a greater proportion of development to occur as inf i l l in existing service areas and accommodating more town-centred building at the edge of cities 5. The basis of these management programs is co-ordination from local to regional scales to seek places and forms in which development is efficient and equitable. 2.2 Historical Perspectives on growth management Managing the growth of our city spaces is not a new process. A s early as the fourth century B C Aristotle and Plato sought to control the size o f Greek cities, believing the most efficient constitution for a city was delimited by its population, 'the largest number which suffices for the purposes of life, and can be taken in at a single v iew" 6 . Ci ty size and form at this time were related to security, ensuring that a city was small enough to be fortified for defense against assailants, and large enough to make it difficult for thieving strangers to escape. The enclosure of these cities by a wal l to protect residents made urban land a scarce commodity, and early planners the ultimate proponents o f managing growth. B y Medieval times city size, form and function began to transform as the proportion of people l iving in urban regions grew and social and economic structures began to change: economics focused towards trade and commerce which created both pul l and push factors that drew the serfdom from the countryside to adjacent the city walls. Once security could be reasonable assured, those with economic independence from city toil chose to live outside the bustle and constraint o f the town 7 . The result was a considerable band of residential land use related directly to the urban core, with even the K ing ' s Palace being situated in a populous suburb two miles from the city o f London. Control l ing the size of medieval cities was no longer a function of the security provided by the wal l , but the spatial extent over which efficient business could be governed. B y the twelfth century the suburb had been born. Since the turn of the 20 th century general plans, subdivision controls, zoning ordinances and building codes have been the popular methods of guiding growth in North American cit ies 8. The movement towards managing population growth saw planning practices become more comprehensive with the recognition that growth had a significant impact on issues ranging from traffic congestion to air and water quality and the general quality o f life o f our urban and rural environments. Since the end of the Second Wor ld War planning has been largely directed to A Framework for Community Change Chapter 2 Page 11 control, manage and improve growth as the rate of population growth has been inexorably linked to the quality of urban life9, at least to those interested in growth management. The recent wave of interest in growth management that began during the 1950's was a direct result of the suburbanization that occurred with people returning from the war and the rapid rate of conversion of rural land to residential uses for new family housing. Between 1946 and 1965 these new families would give birth to what would become the largest generation in history: over eight million babies were born in Canada over this 20 year period, three million more than a generation before and a million more than a generation later. The birth and aging of this generation would first result in schools becoming overcrowded, the demand for public services outstripping the ability of local governments to provide them and eventually to highways, sewers and water systems becoming overburdened10. From the early 50's on, the impact of this generation would be seen on everything from consumer demands for new products to managing growth and change in our cities. By the late 1960's the baby boomers reached the stage in the lifecycle where they began to move out and maintain households of their own. Increasing demand for family housing during this period led to an even larger suburbanization than was seen a generation earlier, as rural land adjoining existing suburban communities was transformed into tracts of low density suburban housing. The suburbanization of metropolitan North America caused many cities to grow more rapidly in spatial extent than in the number of residents. Many provinces and states closely considered the environmental, social and economic impacts that growth was having on their regions. Population growth and change resulted in the "first wave" of growth management strategies in the 1970's to avoid the negative impacts of unplanned, haphazard development that was occurring". It was a result of suburbanization and the spatial impacts of housing choices that the first formal growth management strategies would be introduced. In the United States six states, Vermont (1970), Florida (1972), California (1972), Oregon (1973), Colorado (1974) and North Carolina (1974) each enacted state laws mandating actions aimed at strengthening the capacity of these states to manage growth12, while British Columbia enacted Regional District Legislation to provide a framework for more efficient (joint) delivery of local government services to communities throughout the province13. These early growth strategies largely focused on controlling growth through delegating legal authority to limit the rate of growth, cap the number of dwelling units or regulate the physical location where growth could occur. A Framework for Community Change Chapter 2 Page 12 Whi le issues of growth and its impacts were strongly debated during the 1960's and early 1970's, economic recession and slow population growth of the early 1980's led to a period of lowered interest in growth control. Slow economic growth led to the near collapse of the construction industry in many cities and, combined with low growth rates many cities had not seen since the depression, challenged the context within which growth management was occurr ing 1 4 . Cities that were establishing controls over growth a decade earlier were adopting new positions attempting to attract a greater share of growth and development to their region; growth became less threatening and more attractive to many public of f ic ia ls 1 5 . B y the late 1980's issues of managing population growth would once again resurface with rising demand for family housing and renewed environmental apprehension over perceived impacts growth had on the environment and quality of community life. B y the late 1980's the leading edge of the boom was over the age of 40, were typically l iv ing in the same suburban home and struggling with issues of their teenagers moving out just as they had two decades earlier. This movement of the boomers children into the stage of the l ifecycle where they began to maintain their own households was a key factor in what DeGrove (1998) refers to as the "second wave" of planning and growth management. Once again, increasing demand for family style housing would refresh management policies as the impacts of population growth were again linked to community livability. A t this time many jurisdictions began to review management policies established almost two decades earlier. Bri t ish Columbia (1987) proposed changes to its Regional District legislation while Flor ida (1984) New Jersey (1986), Maine (1988), Vermont (1988), Rhode Island (1988) and Georgia (1989) al l adopted new growth management programs that sought to integrate state (and provincial) plans, comprehensive regional plans, community plans and local development regulations. A more comprehensive approach to managing growth emerged in the 1990's. With a greater focus on mitigating between environmental, economic and social impacts of growth, management strategies began to focus on issues of quality of life. Many communities are no longer questioning whether they should grow or not, but are questioning the economic, social and environmental costs of the form that development has taken over the past two decades. Several trends are driving "Smart Growth" policies including growing environmental concerns, increased fiscal awareness over jobs, tax revenues and amenities development can provide, growing traffic congestion and demographic characteristics associated with an aging population 1 6 . A Framework for Community Change Chapter 2 Page 13 Historical ly, waves of interest in growth management have largely resulted from the impacts demographic factors have on housing and land resources within our regions. Population growth, in terms of the addition of new residents to urban communities, has resulted in new housing, infrastructure and services being built for new residents, while population change, in terms of changing l ifecycle and lifestyle characteristics, has resulted in the establishment of facilities for new and existing residents alike. Ideally, growth management would effectively promote an economically efficient and environmentally responsible pattern of land use. It would also effectively promote the supply of affordable housing , secure adequate provision of public services and ensure equitable distribution of the benefits and costs associated with urban development among communities and individuals' 7 . Although somewhat greater emphasis has generally been placed on the management of growth rather than simply its control, deliberations over the efficacy of management strategies and techniques remain strong. 2.3 The Management Debate Debates over the impacts of growth management policies are as varied as the definitions for the term itself. A s growth management intervenes in the development market (and in existing communities by keeping them from changing), its policies are reflected in housing prices, population trends, industrial locations, environmental conditions, infrastructure investments, open space inventories, neighbourhood stability and many other indicators of the quality of l i fe 1 8 . Proponents argue that interventions are necessary to promote efficient, environmentally sensitive, fiscally sound development, while opponents argue that they only serve to increase housing prices, reduce incomes and divert development to other locales where policies are more lenient 1 9. The key issue to be addressed then is to what end have growth management interventions encouraged the form of urban regions and, in turn what has been the impact on quality of community life. One logical impact of placing added regulations on local housing markets is the "spi l lover effect", whereby new development simply moves to outlying or neighbouring communities where regulations do not impose as many externalities to development. Many studies document how management strategies employed since the 1960's (largely in the form of development controls), shift housing demand from growth-controlled to non growth-controlled communities and result in lower density development known as sprawl (Shen 1996, Burcel l and Listokin 1995, Nelson and Moore 1994, Gottlieb 1995, Ficshel, 1991). A Framework for Community Change Chapter 2 Page 14 Others, such as Nelson (1995), the Fraser Basin Management Program (1995), the Brit ish Columbia Round Table on the Environment and the Economy (1993) and Chini tz (1990), argue that the form of urban development has resulted from laissez-faire attitudes towards growth and development. Proponents see management strategies as offsetting certain imperfections in an otherwise unregulated development market 2 0. The rationale being that in their present form land markets do not work efficiently as individual developers do not ful ly account for the costs they impose on existing communities. In this manner, sprawl is the result o f a haphazard style of development that results in growing economic, environmental and social costs to communities 2 1 . It is through these views that we see the narrow spectrum of issues considered by traditional growth management. Interventions in the development market are also seen as resulting in inflationary land and development costs and rapid increases in housing prices once management strategies have been implemented. These regulations are seen as adding to land and development costs in two ways; directly, through cost charges or infrastructure requirements, and indirectly through constraints on a region's urban land market. Burchel l (1995), Dowal l (1984), B lack and Hoben (1985) and El l io t (1981) all conclude that city management policies (such as the establishment of an urban growth boundary) have an inflationary influence on the price of developable land through reducing its total supply and restricting development potential. In addition, Dowal l adds that cities also increase development costs by adding additional on and off-site development charges, greater infrastructure requirements, regional impact fees or longer waits for development approval. Dowal l estimates that in the San Francisco Bay area these indirect and direct costs account for between 20 and 35 percent of the price of new housing. Although these findings do not imply that the management controls are efficient or inefficient, in a review of economic studies on impacts of growth controls on land and housing costs, Fischel (1989) concludes that growth controls do affect housing and other land use markets (leading to an exclusionary housing environment) and that such effects are, on balance, inefficient as they lead to a net loss to society. Counter arguments see development controls as having no impact on local housing costs, attributing rising housing prices to other factors such as land speculation, public subsidies or taxation policies. Landis (1992) in a review of several communities in Cal i fornia, some of which had implemented management initiatives, shows that there was no great difference in housing costs between those with and without growth controls, possibly a result o f loopholes in growth A Framework for Community Change Chapter 2 Page 1 5 management legislation. Nelson (1995), on the other hand attributes growth of suburban communities and sprawl as being a product of rising (North) American affluence. Overall, research into the impacts of growth management generally shows that policies that constrain land markets in urban areas lead to low density development on the fringe of existing urban areas and a host of negative externalities associated with " suburban sprawl". These externalities range from rising housing prices and exclusionary housing situations, declines in air and water quality, increased congestion and traffic to an overall decline in the quality of community life. These contentions show that the impacts of management policies are far more pervasive and widespread in nature than many planners intended. As John DeGrove observes, there is "no planning in isolation. These are integrated systems, both vertically and horizontally" as the social, economic and environmental impacts of policies are being considered22. This realization is leading to more comprehensive growth management policies and practices that are increasingly focusing on the management of urban regions, rather than strictly on controlling their rate of growth. Perhaps one of the most telling implications of growth controls is reflected in the pervasiveness of people adapting to changes in the marketplace. One outcome of increased control is the increasing regularity of illegal suites within a community that is resistant to change. With growth controls in place that effectively increase housing prices, people are more likely to seek alternatives that make housing in these communities more affordable. One way for residents to do this is to convert a portion of their dwelling unit into a suite that contributes to monthly mortgage payments. In this manner, the total number of residents in a community may grow dramatically without any increase in the number of buildings. Communities will once again experience change without the traditional indicators of growth, namely new housing construction. More importantly, these communities will need to manage change as these residents wil l have an impact on the nature, quantity and timing of local service provision. 2.4 Growth Management in British Columbia Although not officially coined growth management until the 1990's, regional management of growth in the province started with the establishment of the Lower Mainland Regional Planning Board (LMRPB) in 1949. The board was established to address development problems at the regional level, such as land development policies, highways and transportation facilities, industrial land needs and major utilities that demanded a coordinated approach if they A Framework for Community Change Chapter 2 Page 16 were to be resolved effectively 2 3. It was within this framework that a regional plan for the lower mainland (which included what are now the Greater Vancouver and Fraser Va l ley Regional Districts) was developed. In 1964 the Board published a new regional plan entitled "Chance and Change" that advanced a long-range concept that saw the region developed as a "series of cities in a sea of green" 2 4 . This strategy sought to build structured communities that were limited in size and linked by a freeway system. This "cities in a sea of green" concept, inspired by Howard's Garden Ci ty movement, sti l l remains today with the Greater Vancouver Livable Region Strategic Plan's mandate to develop the region as "islands in a sea of green". The merit o f the concepts, policies and strategies developed by the L M R P B would be transferred to the rest of the province in 1965 with legislation that divided the province into 28 administrative Regional Districts to provide a more structured framework for the delivery of government services to communities throughout the province. Whi le it was believed that local governments were best suited to dealing with immediate physical development and planning of their communities, the Regional Districts were considered to be a more efficient means of providing management for larger planning issues such as the development of land resources, transportation infrastructure and waste removal and treatment. B y the late 1970's and early 80's increasing concern with the broad regional mandate of planning lead to the removal o f the regional planning mandate from all Regional Districts in 1983 as it was felt the system no longer met the expectation of local government or the development industry, it ignored business concerns, was unable to respond to local issues, often conflicted with local goals and created another level of bureaucracy that resulted in a lengthy and costly planning process 2 5 . A s indicated earlier, this was a time when interests in growth management waned somewhat as a result of demographic and economic factors. Regional planning and growth management would again come to the forefront of community concerns in the 1990's with increasing demand for family style housing and expanding urban regions. Fol lowing larger national trends (DeGrove's "second wave" growth management), the reinvigoration of growth management in the province would be lead by the establishment of the Growth Strategies Ac t in 1995. Unt i l the Act was enacted, no off icial framework existed for coordinated planning between Regional Districts, or even within them 2 6 . The Act sought to draw from other management initiatives that were being undertaken at the Provincial level to manage growth related challenges in the province. In addition to the growth strategies act these included the Georgia Basin Initiative, a Provincial land use strategy, the Forest Land Reserve, B C 21 and the Environment Assessment Act . A Framework for Community Change Chapter 2 Page 17 The Ac t was intended to revitalize the existing planning system to provide a new framework for the province and local governments to work cooperatively to address issues of how to accommodate growth without destroying the livabil i ty and the natural environments of our province 2 7 . It was believed that this new planning framework was an essential component of an overall growth management strategy developed by the Province, local governments and other interested groups to respond comprehensively to the growth-related issues of the 1990's and beyond 2 8 . 2.5 Growth Management in the Central Okanagan Regional District Growth management in the Central Okanagan Regional District represents the joint planning approach that has been established at the provincial level through the Growth Strategies Act . The growth management strategy is intended to address the regional growth issues that cross municipal and administrative boundaries without removing the ability o f individual municipalities to deal with more local issues 2 9. The strategy in the Okanagan is represented by three stages. The "Strategy" itself, which requires agreement on a regional vision, each of the growth management objectives and their related policies, the "Regional Context Statements", which are statements of how each members Off ic ial Community Plan reflects the larger growth management strategy and an "Act ion P lan " which outlines the actions or strategies to support the desired growth scenario 3 0 . The overall objective of the strategy is to guide growth and development over a 20 year period, focusing on issues of regional governance and service delivery, housing, environmental protection, water resources, air quality, transportation and economic development. A s at the provincial level, stated objectives focus on controlling the impacts of growth and development encroachments on other land resources. 2.6 Future Directions ~ Managing for Change It seems at times past efforts o f managing growth have failed because by the time problems have been sufficiently analyzed (or overanalyzed) to respond to them, the very nature of the problem itself has changed. This is the situation with growth management practices and principles today. With a preoccupation on growth, communities and regions have lost sight of the seemingly inconspicuous processes of change that wi l l transform them; change that w i l l continue at an increasing rate in the presence or absence of aggregate population growth. A Framework for Community Change Chapter 2 Page 18 If the past is any indication of the future, economics, demographics, technology and politics will all ensure that the pace of change will continue to quicken. Although some of these changes may be disruptive to our current patterns of living, others will offer significant opportunities to strengthen the quality of community life in addition to the means through which we achieve it. The focus of planning in the province of British Columbia and elsewhere throughout North America over the past three decades has almost entirely been focused on issues related to population growth and expansion of urban regions. Policies and practices have therefore focused on stopping, containing or mitigating the impacts growth had on the quality of community life. In their predisposition with issues of growth, they have overlooked the fundamental characteristic that will affect all communities throughout the province: community change. Even renown growth management author Benjamin Chinitz fails to acknowledge the pervasiveness of change in his own community when writing about issues of mitigating the impacts of growth. Just as management and control were synonymous to past growth management efforts, growth and development have become synonymous to current ones; future ones will have to be about change. At a provincial or regional level, change management is not about no growth, slow growth or even smart growth, it is about maintaining and further developing the quality of community life by taking advantage of the opportunities presented by change, be them of a demographic, economic or fiscal nature. 2.7 Conclusions Growth management was initially developed in response to the proliferation of new single-family households to accommodate the movement of the baby boom generation into the family formation stage of the lifecycle. The rate of population growth seen during the baby boom of the 1950's will be experienced by few communities within the province over the next four decades. As a result, community issues will increasingly move from managing population growth to managing its change as the aging of resident populations will have more dramatic impacts on land resources and quality of life issues as they will change faster than they will grow. Planning and management will also have to reorient itself towards issues of change. Traditionally, growth management strategies have been developed in response to problems and processes related to urban growth and sprawl31. Growth management theory and practices have a common objective: stopping or controlling growth in order to alleviate negative A Framework for Community Change Chapter 2 Page 19 externalities associated with growth. Provincial planning legislation in British Columbia for the Regional Districts is even called 'The Growth Management Act'. However, standing in stark contrast to the Regional Districts in South Western and Central B C are a host of others that are not projected to experience any growth in population over the next two decades. Many of the resource dependant regions throughout the province will experience absolute declines in population but none will, as a result, be exempt from issues of change. Although not focused on growth, planning theory and practice will need to address the relevant agents of change such as lifecycle characteristics, economic diversification, environmental concerns and social equity32. Endnotes ' Chinitz Benjamin, Growth Management Good for the Town. Bad for the Nation?. Journal of the American Planning Association, winter 1990, p. 3. 2 Nelson Arthur and Duncan James, Growth Management Practices and Principles; American Planning Association, 1995. 3 De Grove, J. M . , "Growth Management and Governance" in Understanding Growth Management; Critical Issues and a Research Agenda; The Urban Land Institute, 1989. 4 Hutton Thomas A. , "Structural Change and the Urban Policy Challenge" in City Regions; September 1996, p. 3. 5 Anderson and Tregoning, "Smart Growth in our Future" in Smart Growth. Economy. Community and Environment; Urban Land Institute, 1998. 6 Mumford Lewis, The City in History; Harcourt, Brace, Janovitz, 1961 7 Vance James, The Continuing City: Urban Morphology in Western Civilization; Johns Hopkins University Press, 1990. 8 Deakin Elisabeth, Growth Controls and Growth Management: A Summary and Review of Empirical Research in Understanding Growth Management; Urban Land Institute, 1998, p. 4. 9 Hutton Thomas A. , "Structural Change and the Urban Policy Challenge" in City Regions; September 1996, p. 3. 1 0 Deakin Elisabeth, Growth Controls and Growth Management: A Summary and Review of Empirical Research in Understanding Growth Management; Urban Land Institute, 1998, p. 4. 1 1 De Grove J. M . , "Growth Management and Governance" in Understanding Growth Management Critical Issues and a Research Agenda; The Urban Land Institute, 1989, p. 24. 1 2 De Grove J. M . , "Growth Management and Governance" in Understanding Growth Management Critical Issues and a Research Agenda; The Urban Land Institute, 1989, p. 24. "Johnston Rita, Proposed Regional District Legislation; Ministry of Municipal Affairs 1987, p. 3. 1 4 De Grove, J. M . , "Growth Management and Governance" in Understanding Growth Management Critical Issues and a Research Agenda; The Urban Land Institute, 1989, p. 32. 1 5 Porter D., Introduction in State and Regional Initiatives for Managing Development. Urban Land Institute; 1992, p. 7. 1 6 Anderson G. and Tregoning H. , "Smart Growth in Our Future" in Smart Growth. Economy. Community. Environment; Urban Land Institute, 1998, p.4. 1 7 Shen Q., Spatial impacts of locally enacted growth controls; the San Francisco Bay Region in the 1980's in Environment and Planning B : Planning and Design; 1996, V.3, p. 61. 1 8 Godschalk D. and Brower D., " A Coordinated Growth Management Research Strategy" in Understanding Growth Management Critical Issues and a Research Agenda; The Urban Land Institute, 1989, p. 160. 1 9 Deakin Elisabeth., Growth Controls and Growth Management: A Summary and Review of Empirical Research in Understanding Growth Management; Urban Land Institute, 1998, p 6. 2 0 Nelson A . and Duncan J:, Growth Management Principles and Practices; 1995, p. 1. 2 1 Nelson A . and Duncan J., Growth Management Principles and Practices; 1995, p.2. 2 2 Porter D., Introduction in "State and Regional Initiatives for Managing Development: Policy Issues and Practical Concerns; Urban Land Institute, 1992, p.7. 2 3 Lower Mainland Regional Planning Board, Origin of the Lower Mainland Regional Planning Board; 1966, p.2 2 4 Lower Mainland Regional Planning Board, The People and the Plan; 1964, p. 3 2 5 The Urban Development Institute, Planning for Tomorrow. The Next Generations; 1991, p.47. A Framework for Community Change Chapter 2 Page 20 l b M i n i s t r y o f M u n i c i p a l A f f a i r s , A n E x p l a n a t o r y G u i d e t o t h e G r o w t h S t r a t e g i e s A c t : 1 9 9 5 , p . 1 . 2 7 M i n i s t r y o f M u n i c i p a l A f f a i r s , G r o w t h S t r a t e g i e s D r a f t L e g i s l a t i o n : 1 9 9 5 , p . 2 . 2 8 M i n i s t r y o f M u n i c i p a l A f f a i r s , G r o w t h S t r a t e g i e s f o r t h e 1 9 9 0 ' s a n d B e y o n d ; 1 9 9 4 , p . l . 2 9 D e p a r t m e n t o f R e g i o n a l a n d C o m m u n i t y P l a n n i n g , T h e G r o w t h M a n a g e m e n t S t r a t e g y f o r t h e R e g i o n a l D i s t r i c t o f t h e C e n t r a l O k a n a g a n ; 1 9 9 9 , p . 3 3 0 D e p a r t m e n t o f R e g i o n a l a n d C o m m u n i t y P l a n n i n g , T h e G r o w t h M a n a g e m e n t S t r a t e g y f o r t h e R e g i o n a l D i s t r i c t o f t h e C e n t r a l O k a n a g a n ; D e p a r t m e n t o f R e g i o n a l a n d C o m m u n i t y P l a n n i n g , C e n t r a l O k a n a g a n R e g i o n a l D i s t r i c t , 1 9 9 9 , p . 5 3 1 N e l s o n , D u n c a n , M u l l e n a n d B i s h o p , G r o w t h M a n a g e m e n t P r i n c i p l e s a n d P r a c t i c e s ; 1 9 9 8 , p . 1 Page 21 Population Projections: The Foundation of a Framework for Change "The new planning addresses novel elements in the environment of organizations. It is concerned with producing change and with maintaining organizational stability under conditions of change." (John Friedmann, 1973p. xiv) Representations of total population and its growth in a region are more iconistic than practical in the context of community and regional planning. Whether it is the (hypothetical) birth of the world's sixth bil l ionth baby in Bosnia, or Arthur Er ickson's grandiose visions of 15 mil l ion people call ing Vancouver home in the next couple of decades, it is "the number", not its validity, utility or causality that has historically captured the debate. Even regional planning is a vict im of the myopia: after years of consultation into the implications of population growth, the Livable Region Strategy adopted by the Greater Vancouver Regional District was a set of aggregate population targets for each of the municipalities that make up Greater Vancouver 1 . From any planning perspective (be it o f the strategic or short term nature), these aggregate numbers are immaterial. From Shakespeare's Seven Stages of Man to Darwin 's Evolution of the Species or market research into today's latest .com business venture, there is a solid understanding that it is not the aggregate population, but the composition of it upon which astute planning decisions are made. It is the patterns of l ifecycle and lifestyle change that wi l l shape land uses, housing markets, transportation demand, school enrolment, medical requirements and even funeral services. None of which can be accurately represented by the aggregate size of a region's population, as each are impacted by changes in its underlying composition. Perhaps historically there was sufficient justification for analyses that focused on aggregate representations of population; technically, simple trend projections of total population were all that most planning departments were capable of producing. However, such excuses no longer exist as the growing availability o f computing power and detailed population data permit the analysis of the composition of a population and how it w i l l change over time. These analyses can be linked to l i fecycle and lifestyle demand patterns to project the impacts population change wi l l have on issues ranging from the demand for sport utility vehicles to the optimal location for an organic foods store. A Framework for Community Change Chapter 3 Page 22 Given the significant impact aging has on a population, be it o f a particular region, a province, a continent or the globe, any planning exercise must first consider the composition of its resident population and proceed with an analysis of its change over time. Thus, a framework prepared for the evaluation of community change must have as its foundation a projection of the emerging structure of a population. Given the importance of l ifecycle and lifestyle patterns, the framework presented here focuses on the age structure of the population and how it w i l l change over time given the processes of aging, natality, mortality and the influence of migration. This chapter outlines the steps in articulation of a trend-based population projection as the foundation of managing community change using the specific example of the Central Okanagan Regional District for the 1999 to 2040 period. This framework details each of the components that w i l l contribute to population change and outlines the data used in projections, how trends may be quantified and the assumptions that might be made in doing so. A s the focus of this framework is to consider the character of population change rather than simply its growth or decline, two aspects of population dynamics are considered. The first is a demonstration of the change that would occur in the region's population i f it did not grow, something that would characterize a region that experienced no net migration. A t the Regional District level, four regions in the province are projected to be in this situation over the coming two decades. A t a sub-regional level, many more communities throughout the province wi l l experience absolute declines in their resident populations. The second is a demonstration of the change that would occur i f there was positive net migration into a region, causing aggregate population growth in addition to change. 3.1 Establishing the Context: The History of Change in the Central Okanagan In 1999 152,343 people resided in the Central Okanagan Regional Distr ict 2 . Its population grew from 51,584 people in 1971 to 75,000 by 1977 and doubled to 102,826 by 1989 (Figure 1). B y 1993 it has passed the 125,000 mark, adding another 25,000 to reach 152,343 people in 1999. Over the past three decades, population growth in the Regional District has been more rapid than that of the province as a whole: in 1971, approximately 2.3% percent of the province's population lived in the Regional District, by 1979 it held 3.0%, and by 1999 the District had almost 4% of the province's population. A Framework for Community Change Chapter 3 Page 23 Figure 1: Population of the Central Okanagan Regional District, 1971 to 1999 150,000 The region's population has always grown, although there has been great variance in the magnitude and rate of annual additions to its population (Figure 2). While the region's population grew rapidly (over 10% in 1972) during the early 70's, the recession o f the mid- 1970s caused a considerable slowing, with increases in the 3.2% (1977) to 1.5% (1978) per year range, adding an average o f 2,300 to 1,100 people per year (Figure 2). B y the early 1980s, economic recovery saw growth in the region increase to the 4,000 (5%) per year range. The recession o f the mid 1980s caused population growth to fall to almost zero in 1985, but recovery in the early 1990's took growth to annual increases to over 7,000 people per year (6.4% annual growth). More recently an appreciable slowing in the rate o f growth in the District has also been seen, with the 3,350 people added to the population in the past year being under half the 7,342 people added in 1992. This pattern generally follows the cycles that have been seen at the provincial level, with slow provincial growth since 1996 being mirrored by slower growth in the Central Okanagan. A Framework for Community Change Chapter 3 Page 24 10 90 80 70 60 50 30 20 10 Figure 3: Population of the Central Okanagan Regional District, by Age and Sex, 1971 & 1999 o 1,400 1,050 700 350 350 700 1,050 1,400 Female Male The age profile of the region shows a distinct post war baby boom bulge (Figure 3). In 1971 the typical3 resident of Central Okanagan Regional District was 15 years old: there were A Framework for Community Change Chapter 3 Page 25 1,119 people of this age, more than the number of people of any other age. The average4 age of a resident in 1971 was 33.4 years old, 32.9 for males and 33.9 for females. In the formative stages of population analysis, age profiles were commonly referred to as pyramids, as the youngest age groups were the largest with increasing mortality reducing the number of people in each successive age group. Such pyramids exist only with long periods of stable natality and mortality rates and little migration. None of these have characterized this region's population as is shown in the 1971 and 1999 age profiles. The region's age profile has gone from looking like a pot to resembling a tree, with a very thick trunk. Due to the processes of aging, mortality, natality and migration, the typical resident of in 1999 was a 40 year old (Figure 3). There were 2,535 people of this age, more than the number of people of any other age (comprised of 1,238 males and 1,297 females, making a typical person in 1999 a 40 year old female). The average age of a resident in 1999 was 40.1 years old (38.5 years for males and 40.6 for females), seven years older than the average age in 1971. The baby boom generation — the single largest generation in history that currently accounts for one third of the country's population — was born between 1946 and 1965 (or 1947 and 1966, or 1945 and 1964, or a number of other combinations in this range - assuming that a generation is a 20 year age group). In 1971, 37% of the region's population were boomers; that is, were between the ages of 6 and 25. By 1999 32% of the District's population were boomers, now between the ages of 33 and 52. In 1971 the 33 to 52 age cohort accounted for only 22% of the region's population, showing the dramatic impact aging has on a region's population. In 1999 there were 24,01 lpeople aged 33 to 42 and 22,075 people aged 43 to 52 for a total of 46,086 boomers. The largest bulge of the baby boom is made up of 36 to 41 year-olds, with over 15,043 people in this age group in 1999. The generation before the baby boom, the pre-boomers now between 54 and 71 years of age, is considerably smaller in number than the boom, the result of the very low levels of births that occurred in the 1930s Depression and pre-World War II period. In 1999 17% (26,505) of the population was in this older generation. The generation following the baby boom, commonly referred to as the "Nexus" generation, were 1999's 13 to 32 year olds: this generation is also smaller than the baby boom generation, the result of the low level of births that urbanization and the birth control pill brought to the 1967 to 1986 period. In 1999 25% (3 8,47 lpeople) of the population in the Regional District was in the 13 to 32 year-old age group. The remaining population was divided among the 72 plus (11%) and under 12 (15%) age groups. Populations are often described as the number of people in one age group in relation to the number in another. The most common of such ratios are generally known as the elderly and A Framework for Community Change Chapter 3 Page 26 youth "dependency" ratios: the number of people 65 and older (elderly), and under 15 (youth), divided by the number of people of working age (15 to 64). As these ratios are meant to represent the magnitude of the relationship between the beneficiary population (of pension plans and health care) and the contributory population (those of working age who contribute via taxation), here they will be referred to as beneficiary rather than dependency ratios. Given the shift in the Okanagan's age profile between 1971 and 1999, the ratio of elderly residents to the working age population changed considerably as the relatively small elderly population increased at the same time as the baby boom generation entered the working stage of the lifecycle. In 1971, there were 198 persons 65 and older, and 464 persons under the age of 15, per 1,000 people of working age in the region, for a total beneficiary ratio of 662 persons per 1,000 persons of working age. In 1999 the elderly beneficiary ratio was 263 per 1,000 people of working age, the youth beneficiary ratio of 274 per 1,000, for a total beneficiary ratio of 536. Over the past 28 years, the total beneficiary ratio has declined by 19%, the net result of a 32% increase in the elderly beneficiary ratio, and a 41% decline in the youth beneficiary ratio. 3.2 Components of Population Change In sub-provincial regions, in addition to aging, the components of population change include births, deaths, in-migration from other parts of the province and from other provinces, out-migration to other parts of the province and to other provinces, immigration from other countries, the return of Canadians who have been resident outside of Canada, emigration to other countries, and the net change in the number of non-permanent residents (such as foreign students or diplomats). While each of these components must be considered separately in magnitude and composition, they are generally grouped into four general categories for discussion: aging, natural increase (births minus deaths), net domestic migration (inter and intra provincial in-migration minus out-migration) and net immigration (immigration plus returning Canadians minus emigration plus net change in non-permanent residents). By way of introduction it is useful to briefly consider the magnitude of the components that contributed to aggregate population growth over the past decade. Figure 4 shows that net inter-provincial migration was the major source of population growth in the region between 1991 and 1994, adding an average of 2,700 people to the region each year. The largest contribution of net inter-provincial was in 1991, when it added 3,590 people, and the lowest was in 1996 when 710 people moved to the district from other provinces. A Framework for Community Change Chapter 3 Page 27 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 H 1000 Figure 4: Components of Net Annual Increase, Central Okanagan Regional District, 1991 to 1998 1991 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 Over this period, the significant slowdown in net inter-provincial migration was offset somewhat by growth in net intra-provincial, net immigration and natural increase. However, with population growth in the province as a whole slowing, both net immigration and net intra-provincial migration to the region declined in 1997, and net inter-provincial migration and natural increase grew only slightly from the levels experienced in 1996. Net intra-provincial migration became the major source o f growth between 1995 and 1996 when it added an average of 1,770 people to the regions' population. Natural increase was the third largest source of population growth between 1991 and 1994, adding an average o f 485 people per year over this period. The largest contribution from this source was in the 1994 when it added 535 people to the regions' population. The gradual decline in the net difference between the number o f births and the number of deaths is the result o f the number o f deaths increasing faster than births. This is the result o f the aging o f the region's post Wor ld War I boom into the older higher mortality age groups. This pattern w i l l continue until the large bulge of the post Wor ld War II baby boom reaches these elderly high mortality age groups around 2039. A Framework for Community Change Chapter 3 Page 28 3.2.1 Natural Change On an aggregate basis the change in the size of a region's population is caused by the net influence of births (which causes a population to grow), deaths (causing it to decline) and net migration (which can do both). What is often forgotten is that in addition to causing increases and decreases, each of these components will result in a change in the population's composition. If births and deaths are numerically equal, the aggregate population will not increase, but it may get older or younger depending on its age profile. Similarly, if net migration is zero, but the in-migrant flow is younger than the out-migrant flow, the age profile will become younger without any aggregate increase in population. a. Aging The primary force influencing the composition of a population is aging: throughout most of the world (with the exception of the Middle East and Africa), the population in older age groups is growing much more rapidly than total population. For the simple reason that this is a process that affects everyone alive, the most important factor influencing the structure of a region's population is aging. While the population might increase by 2% or 3% per year, everyone gets a year older each year. Figure 5: Aging the Central Okanagan Regional District's 1999 Population to 2009 ^ ^^'  'C"^  • ^  ^  ^  ill j J| ^  1,300 800 300 200 700 1,200 Female Male The effects of aging on a population can be illustrated by shifting an age profile upwards (as is shown on Figure 5): in ten years the residents, with no in or out domestic migration, no A Framework for Community Change Chapter 3 Page 29 deaths or births, no immigration or emigration, would be precisely ten years older than they are today. Aging with no deaths is the reality for the vast majority of the population, as mortality rates are not significant in the under 75 population, particularly in the 32 to 51 age group where one third of the population is today. In all but the very long-term, the future population of the region will , to a large extent, be an older version of what it is today. Given the "tree" shape of the Central Okanagan's current population, aging alone would result in 2009's typical person being a 50 year-old rather than a 40 year-old. In ten years, aging alone would mean that the 22,075 people aged 43 to 52 in 1999 would be 22,075 people aged 53 to 62 in 2009. As there were only 15,272 people aged 53 to 62 in 1999, the number of people in this age cohort would increase in the region by 6,800 people, or 45%, without population growth. Aging alone would also mean that the number of people aged 33 to 42 would decline, as 1999's 24,011 33 to 42 year olds would become 2009's 43 to 52 year olds. The 18,853 people aged 23 to 32 in 1999 who would become 2009's 33 to 42 year olds, are not numerous enough to replace the people aging out of this age group; these age groups would experience a 5,158 person (21%) decline even if the overall population did not change in size. b. Mortality Mortality, the ultimate demographic variable, affects both the size and the composition of a population. The number of deaths in the Central Okanagan Regional District has steadily increased over the past quarter century, in spite of steadily declining mortality rates, as its population has grown and aged. In 1975-1976, there were 550 deaths in the region, compared to 1,321 in 1998-1999 (Figure 6). The number of deaths in a particular year is the function of two factors: the number of people in each age group and the age specific mortality rates. A mortality rate is the number of people of an age who die in a year divided by the total number of people in the age group in that year5. These rates are expressed as the number of deaths per 100,000 people to avoid having overly small numbers for younger age groups where few deaths occur. A Framework for Community Change Chapter 3 Page 30 As Figure 7 shows, mortality rates generally increase with age, and rates for males are higher than for females of the same age. As a result, the probability of reaching the next age A Framework for Community Change Chapter 3 Page 31 group declines with age, and males generally have the lower probability, resulting in females' greater life expectancies 6. The mortality rates for new-borns (389 deaths per year per 100,000 females and 616 per 100,000 for males in their first year o f life in this region) are higher than for older children and adults up to the age of 60, showing the fragile nature of the youngest additions to a population. The lowest mortality rates are for people from 2 to 15 years of age, with rates averaging 23 per 100,000 for females and 28 per 100,000 for males. Once males reach the age of 16, the probability o f their not reaching the next age group increases significantly with each passing year, to 192 deaths per year per 100,000 males aged 20, over three times the 59 per 100,000 rate for females of the same age. The difference is largely explained by the relatively higher number of male deaths each year associated with accidents and violence. After age 50, the mortality rates for males and females begin to converge although female rates always remaining lower throughout all adult age groups. The two rates move together through the 1 in 100 range (1,000 in 100,000) for people in their sixties, 1 in 10 in their mid-eighties, to almost 1 in 2 in their late nineties. There are so few people in the 100 plus age group that no data are published by single years of age; at some point the rate w i l l be one in one 7. Mortal i ty rates for both males and females have declined significantly in Canada over the past seventy-five years, to the extent that male life expectancies have increased by over 16 years and female life expectancies by over 20 years since 1921 s. Figure 8 shows an example of the historical and projected changes in mortality rates for Canada for males between 30 and 49. Figure 8: Male Mortality Rates, 1921 to 2040, Selected Age Groups number of deaths per 100,000 people of the specific age group A Framework for Community Change Chapter 3 Page 32 Note that the big declines in mortality rates occurred between 1921 and 1961, with the rate of decline slowing since the early 1960's. While it is certain that medical technology wi l l result in a continuing decline in mortality rates, diminishing returns wi l l most l ikely apply. This means that future declines wi l l be more modest, and more difficult to achieve, than gains seen in the past. For this projection, the projected trend of change in mortality rates at the national level has been applied to the rates for the corresponding age and sex cohorts in the Central Okanagan, as historical mortality data at the Regional District level does not permit consideration for individual age groups. This represents the assumption that mortality rates in the region wi l l experience the same changes projected at the national level. In population projections, the focus is not on mortality, but rather on survivorship. Survivorship rates, or the percentage of people in each age group who do not die in a year and hence who age into the next older age group, are the converse of the mortality rates. Apply ing projected survivorship rates to the aging of the Regional District 's current population shows the impact aging and mortality alone have on the age profile of the region's population (Figure 9). Over the next decade aging and mortality wi l l not noticeably change the baby boom age profile of the population: the profile wi l l shift up and the typical person in the population wi l l be about ten years older than the typical person of today. Where the noticeable difference between aging alone and aging with mortality w i l l be seen is in the over 75 population: the top of the population profile is a lot narrower in Figure 9 than it was in Figure 5. Figure 9: Aging and Mortality of the Central Okanagan ^ Regional District's 1999 Population to 2009 1,400 1,050 700 350 0 350 700 1,050 1,400 Female Male A Framework for Community Change Chapter 3 Page 33 Following the example of aging alone outlined on page 9, there were 22,075 people between the ages of 43 and 52 in 1999: in 2009 aging and mortality would mean there would be 23,618 people in this age group, rather than the 24,011 (1999's 33 to 42 year olds) there would be if there was no mortality (a 2% difference). In comparison, there were 10,654 people in the 73 to 82 age group in 1999: considering only mortality, in 2009 there would be 11,223, compared to the 14,270 (today's 63 to 72 year olds) there would have been without mortality (a 27% difference). Thus, mortality has a relatively small impact on the size of the population in younger and middle age groups, but a significant impact in older age groups. c. Natality The number of births in Central Okanagan Regional District increased steadily over the past twenty-five years, from 920 in 1975 to 1,600 in 1996, and then declined to an estimated 1,510 in 1998 (Figure 10). The number of births each year is a function of the number of women in the child bearing age groups (14 to 50 years of age) and the probability that they will have a child during a year. This rate is calculated as the number of women of each age who give birth during a year divided by the total number of women of that age9. Figure 10: Number of Births, Central Okanagan Regional District, 1975 to 1998 1,500 1,250 1,000 500 250 l . l l l l l l As Figure 11 shows, there is a distinct pattern to age specific birth rates. The highest rates are for women in the 23 to 29 age group, where over 10% of the women have a child each A Framework for Community Change Chapter 3 Page 34 year. The rates increase from 0.1% for women aged 14 to peak at 12% at age 26 before dropping back to 0.1% by age 43 and becoming negligible by the age of 46. Figure 11: Age Specific Birth Rates, Central Okanagan Regional District, 1996 -r v. -Figure 12: British Columbia Age Specific Birth Rates, 1921 to 2040 (Number of Births Per Year Per 100 Women in Age Groups) Age specific birth rates have changed dramatically over the past seventy-five years. Data at the provincial level (Figure 12) show a doubling for all but the oldest age groups between the A Framework for Community Change Chapter 3 Page 35 pre World War II and post war periods, dropping back to pre war levels by the 1970s10. Since 1977, there has been a reversal in the pattern of decline in the 30 and older age groups, with the continuing declines in the younger age groups being matched by these increases. Thus, the typical woman giving birth is now in the 30 to 34 age group, rather than the 20 to 24 age group of the 1960s. Available data for the Central Okanagan show similar changes, with the typical woman having children shifting from the 20 to 24 age group to the 25 to 29 age group between 197land 199811. At the provincial level, continuing the trends of the past twenty years will result in a stabilization of age specific birth rates within the next decade or so, with the rates for women in the 30 to 34 age group being the highest of all age groups. This projected pattern of change in birth rates by single years of age at the provincial level have been applied to the 1996 rates for the Central Okanagan Regional District to project the birth rates for the region to 2040. There is one additional factor about births that must be considered in a population projection: the proportion of the births in a particular year that are male and female, as this will have a significant impact on the future gender composition of the population (and hence the total number of births). The proportion of male and female births has been taken from the provincial level, and used to split the number of male and female births each year in the Central Okanagan: in 1998 there were a total of 1,510 births in the Central Okanagan Regional District, 48%, (724) were females and 52% (786) were males12. d. Natural Change Aging, mortality and natality can be applied to the 1999 population profile to show how these processes would affect a region's population (Figure 13). For example, over a ten year period, the impact of natality on the population would only be shown in the population under the age of 10 (compare Figures 9 and 13). Over the 1999 to 2009 period, in the absence of migration, there would be 16,050 births in the Central Okanagan Regional District. These new additions to the population would be between 0 and 9 years of age in 2009, and would be the only people in the age group. However, in the absence of migration, there would only be 14,523 people in the Central Okanagan Regional District under the age of 10 in 2009. The difference of 1,527 people is explained by the mortality rates of children under the age of 10. A Framework for Community Change Chapter 3 Page 36 Figure 13: Aging, Mortality and Births, Central Okanagan Regional District's 1999 Population to 2009 90 80 70 60 50 2009 40 1999 30 20 10 0 1.. e. The Results of Change Starting with the 1999 age and sex characteristics of the Central Okanagan Regional District 's population, and the assumption of trended age and sex specific birth and death rates, natural change alone (with no migration) would result in a) an immediate slowing in the growth of and then a decline in the region's total population (Figure 14) and b) a dramatic aging of the resident population (Figure 15). The population would grow from 1999's 152,343 persons to a peak of 152,751 in 2004. From that year on, it would decline in absolute terms, reaching 137,081 by 2040. The reason for the decline in the Central Okanagan Regional District 's population is that the number of deaths would soon grow to exceed the number of births each year. In 1999 there were 1,510 births and 1,321 deaths leading to natural increase o f 189 people. B y 2004 1,443 births and 1,352 deaths would lead to a natural decrease o f 30 people and by 2040 1,073 births and 2,049 deaths would cause the population to decline by 977 people. In 20 years there would be 119,635 survivors o f today's population o f 152,343. While these would be the same people, they would have changed considerably, as the typical person in the region would go from being today's 40 year old to 2020's 58 year old. B y 2040 in the absence o f migration, 83,619 (61%) o f the 137,081 residents in the Regional District would be the survivors o f 1999's population, all o f who would be 40 years older. Female Male A Framework for Community Change Chapter 3 Page 37 Figure 14: Central Okanagan Regional District's Population, 1971 to 1999, Projected to 2040 Assuming No Migration Figure 15: Projected Dependency Ratios, Central Okanagan Regional District, 1999 to 2040, Assuming No Migration 1000 People of Working Age, 15 to 64) The aging of the population without migration is clearly shown in the beneficiary ratio (Figure 15). In 1999, there were 265 people 65 and older, and 280 people under the age of 15, for every 1000 people of working age in the Regional District. Natural change would result in the number A Framework for Community Change Chapter 3 Page 38 of elderly people increasing to 510 people aged 65 plus per 1000 o f working age (a 90% increase), and the number o f young people per 1000 o f working age falling to 217 (a 24% decline) by 2040. The total beneficiary ratio would drop from 545 per 1000 in 1999 to 501 in 2011, then climb to 720 by 2031. Beyond 2030, a natural change projection would cause both ratios to stabilize. 1 1 -9,812 -10,374 0..14 15..24 25..34 35..44 45..54 55..64 65..74 75..84 85+ Figure 16 shows that even with a 10% decline in total population over the coming four decades the District would see between 22% and 171% growth in each of the age groups over the age o f 55. Although population growth would not be seen in this scenario, there would still be the need for the management o f land and local resources: "growth" management with respect to urban activities related to the 65 plus population and "decline" management with respect to the younger population. The need to manage change would increase significantly as the demand for housing, land use, transportation and local services would change dramatically as the proportion of people over the age o f 65 would increase from one in six in 1999 to almost one in four by 2040. It is fundamental to planning to acknowledge that change occurs regardless of aggregate rates of growth or decline. Although the natural change model is not projected for the Central Okanagan, many o f the resource extraction regions in British Columbia and other provinces and states w i l l experience declines in population over the coming decades and, as a result w i l l experience dramatic changes in the composition and needs o f their residents. A Framework for Community Change Chapter 3 Page 39 3.2.2 Migration Internal or domestic migration involves people changing regions of residence within a country. This migration, which includes people moving within provinces (intra-provincial) and between provinces (inter-provincial), is not generally subject to direct government regulation. This is in contrast to international migration (immigration, emigration, non-permanent residents, and returning Canadian citizens), which is to varying degrees subject to government regulation. a. Intra-provincial Migration Intra-provincial migration refers to moving between regions within the province, and is a result of a wide range of factors, including economics (labour force migration), lifestyle and changes in the stage in the lifecycle (for example retirement). In a general sense there should be little reason for distinguishing between intra-provincial and inter-provincial migration flows as no guarded boundaries need to be crosses to migrate. However, the movement within provinces is sometimes easier than between provinces as a result differences in language, culture or social service standards between provinces. Alternatively, other differences, such as taxation, social service waiting lists or political climate may create situations where inter-provincial migration is easier than intra-provincial migration. Figure 17: Intra-Provincial In-Migration, Central Okanagan Regional District, 1991 to 1998 1,500 6,000 4,500 3,000 7,362 6,322 5,602 6,397 6,440 6,322 6,400 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 An average of 1,726 more people came to the region from other parts of the province each year between 1991 and 1998. When disaggregated into the flow of people into and out of A Framework for Community Change Chapter 3 Page 40 the Regional District from other areas of the province, we see that every year the District experiences a net population gain as a result of intra-provincial migration. Since 1991, intra-provincial in migration to the Regional District has ranged from a high of 7,362 in the early part of the decade to a low of 5,602 per year in 1994, a difference of 1,760 people (Figure 17), for an average of 6,449 in-migrants from other parts of the province. The fact that a large portion of the intra provincial in-migration stream to the region is made up of labour force migrants and students is shown in it age profile (Figure 18). For example, 30% of the in-migrants between 1991 and 1996 were between the ages of 18 and 31, compared to only 18% of the region's residents being in this age group. Accompanying some of these young adult migrants were their young children: 15% of the in-migrant stream are children under the age of 10, compared to only 13% of the resident population. Older children and people over the age of 31 are more closely represented in the in-migration flow when compared to the residents: 55% of in-migrants and 68% of residents. Figure 18: Age Distribution of Resident and Intra-Provincial In-Migrant Populations, Central Okanagan Regional District, 1991-1996 Annual Average 90 pj, 8 0 . i-—=g= V 'i . 60 11 L l I - — R e s i d e n t Population 40 H ^^^^^^=^9-1 30 * ' 1 | ^ = — ^ - f In-Migrants 20 ^ ^ ^ ^ = ^ ^ = ^ ^ S j g ^ ^ = S = = • ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ 10 J a ^ = • ^ = ^ ^ ^ ^ a ^ n ^ 0 , , ^ ^ ^ ^ = s ^ ^ ^ = ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ = ^ = ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ — ' , 1 3.00% 2.00% 1.00% 0.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% Female Male Figure 18 explodes the common myth of who the typical migrant to the Central Okanagan is: they are typically young families and their children in search of employment, family homes, lifestyle and the amenities offered in the Okanagan rather than the common perception of elderly empty nesters escaping the hustle and bustle of the city. Out-migration from the District to other parts of the province results from a wide variety of factors including economics, lifestyle and changes in the stage in the lifecycle. One would A Framework for Community Change Chapter 3 Page 41 expect that the pattern of intra-provincial out-migration from the District would generally be the inverse of that of the in-migration flow. However, comparing Figures 18 and 19 shows that out migration from the District has remained relatively constant between 1991 and 1997. Over this period, intra-provincial migration out of the District has ranged from a high of 4,968 in 1992 to a low of 4,543 per year in 1994, a difference of only 425 people. Figure 19: Intra-Provincial Out-Migration, Central Okanagan Regional District, 1991 to 1998 3,000 1,500 4,846 4,968 4,818 4,543 4,665 4,625 4,812 4,850 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 The age profile of the out-migrants also shows that a large portion of out-migration from the region is also made up of younger residents, such as those moving out of the region for work or school (Figure 20). Thirty six percent of the out-migrants between 1991 and 1996 were between the ages o f 18 and 31 (the majority of which fal l between the ages o f 19 and 25), compared to 30% of in-migrants and only 18% of the region's resident population. Accompanying these young adult migrants were their young children: 15% of the in-migrant stream are children under the age of 10, compared to 15% of the in-migrant and 13% of resident population. A l so shown in the profile is that older children and people over the age of 31 are under represented in relation to the resident population: 49% of out-migrant, 55% of in-migrant and 68%) of resident population. A Framework for Community Change Chapter 3 Page 42 Figure 20: Age Distribution of Resident and Intra-Provincial Out-Migrant Populations, Central Okanagan Regional District, 1991-1996 Annual Average 90 L 80 . i-—jT-5 5^~A , 70 .1 1 S 1. ^ 60 i 1 S, — L l = J Resident Population 50 i'. J f 'I 40 ;i •!• 5 • la 3Q * " | ' 1 . Out-Migrants 20 = = = 7 = = i| S ]2===E=^^^r^^^^^^=^^^^=~~ io rr 'fi ^ ^ - J k , ' o , , , 1 , , , 4.00% 3.00% 2.00% 1.00% 0.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 4.00% Female Male b. Inter-provincial Migration The two components of net inter-provincial migration are in-migration (people moving to the region from other provinces) and out-migration (people moving from the region to other provinces). Since 1991, inter-provincial migration to the Regional District has generally followed the pattern seen at the provincial level. There has been considerable variance in the annual in-migration flow to the province over the past 25 years, ranging from a high of 5,390 in 1991, to a low of 3,240 per year in 1996, an average of 4,200 people annually (Figure 21). A Framework for Community Change Chapter 3 Page 43 Figure 21: In-Migration from other Provinces, Central Okanagan Regional District, 1991 to 1998 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 H 1,000 -1991 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 Figure 22: Age Distribution of Resident and Inter-Provincial In-Migrant Populations, Central Okanagan Regional District, 1991-1996 Annual Average 90 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 , 3.50% 2.50% .50% 0.50% Female 0.50% 1.50% Male 2.50% 3.50% Like intra-provincial migration, much of the in-migration stream to the region is made up of labour force migrants (Figure 22). Thirty six percent of in-migrants between 1991 and 1996 were between the ages of 18 and 31, compared to only 18% of the region's residents being in this A Framework for Community Change Chapter 3 Page 44 age group. Accompanying some of these young adult migrants were their young children: 17% of the in-migrant stream were children under the age of 10, compared to 13% of the resident population. Older children and people over the age of 31 are under represented in the in-migration f low compared to the resident population, accounting for 47% of migrants and 68% of residents. Al though the age profile of the inter-provincial in-migrant stream also shows that it is not only labour force migrants who move to the region, like intra-provincial migration, it is dominated by young adults. Once again, this clearly explodes the common myth of the Central Okanagan migrant: they are typically families and their children rather than the elderly empty nesters and retirees many people believe to be the typical migrants to the Regional District. Just as people have always migrated from other provinces to the Okanagan, people have also left to live in other provinces and, just as inter-provincial in-migration is highly influenced by economic conditions, so too is out-migration: as a result, the inter-provincial out-migration pattern is roughly the inverse of that for in-migration, and generally follows the pattern set at the provincial level. Figure 23: Inter-Provincial Out-Migration, Central Okanagan Regional District, 1991 to 1998 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 B y 1996, out-migration from the District to other provinces had reached a peak for the 1991 to 1998 period, increasing to 2,610, almost 50% greater from the 1,870 people per year that was seen in 1991 (Figure 23). The provincial recession of 1997/1998 (which began in early 1996) is also seen in the migration data, with the high number of people leaving the District for other provinces and the low number of people moving from these locales to the Regional District. A Framework for Community Change Chapter 3 Page 45 The age profile o f inter-provincial out-migrants (Figure 24) is similar to that of inter-provincial in-migrants, again reflecting the high degree of mobil ity enjoyed by, and required of, young adults. Over 38% of the out-migrants in 1996 were between the ages of 18 and 31, while this age group accounted for 36% of in-migrants and 18% of the resident population. Children moving with their parents mean that the under 10 group accounts for 17% of the out-migrant stream, 17% of the in-migrant stream and only 13% of residents. Older children, and adults over the age of 31, are once again under represented in the out-migrant population, accounting for 45% of all out-migrants, compared to 47% of in-migrants and 68% of resident population. Figure 24: Age Distribution of Resident and Inter-Provincial Out-Migrant Populations, Central Okanagan Regional District, 1991-1996 Annual Average Resident Population 3.50% 2.50% .50% 0.50% Female 0.50% 1.50% Male 2.50% 3.50% c. International Migration The definitional difference between internal and international migration lies in the nature of the boundaries crossed and the degree of government regulation. In addition to all other factors that affect people changing their region of residence, international migrants are also subject to the entry and exit regulations of sovereign nations. International migration into or out of this region is comprised of people from other countries taking up residency here (immigrants, non-permanent residents, and returning Canadians) and of residents o f the region moving to take up residency in other countries (emigration, which in turn contributes to the number of Canadians who may return to the region after having been residents o f other countries). A Framework for Community Change Chapter 3 Page 46 A s Figure 25 shows, net immigration to the District follows a pattern, part o f which is determined by local economic conditions, part by federal immigration policies and part by international economic factors. Since 1991 net immigration has contributed an average of 413 people per year to the Central Okanagan Regional District. O f a net increase of 427 people in 1996 due to net international migration, the largest share, 436 people was from immigration, 144 from emigration (people leaving for other countries), 133 people from the return of Canadians and 2 people from non-permanent residents l iv ing in the District. Figure 25: Net Immigration to the Central Okanagan Regional District, 1991 to 1998 500 400 300 200 100 441 371 540 uuuuu 427 345 369 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 Unl ike many of the other migrant categories, the net immigrant age profile has a far greater variation between specific age groups (Figure 26). This is the result o f there being few people at each specific age either moving into the region from other countries, or to other countries from the Okanagan. The age profile of the net immigrant population is generally younger than that of the resident population (Figure 26). Almost 39% of the net immigrants to the region in 1996 were between the ages of 18 and 31, compared to 18% of the resident population. The under 10 age group accounts for approximately 14% of the net immigrant population and 13% of residents, while older children and people over the age of 31 are under represented in the out-migration f low: 47% of net international migrants compared to 68% of residents. A Framework for Community Change Chapter 3 Page 47 The fact that the age profile of the net immigrant population is younger than that of the resident population emphasizes the reality that changing regions of residence, whether within a province, between provinces, or between countries, is a challenging and difficult endeavour. As a result, it is most often entered into by young adults, who are generally more adventurous in seeking lifestyle choices, or more flexible in pursuing career options. However, as international migration is a more serious endeavour and requires more resources and greater entry requirements, specific skills and education must be attained before entry in to the country. These factors combine to make the immigrant populations, while younger than the resident population, older than the domestic migration population. Figure 26: Age Distribution of Net Immigrant and Resident Populations, Central Okanagan Regional District, 1991-1996 Annual Average so ''. ' • i — 40 ; r ^^^^^== == 30 ^^^==__U—— = 20 ^ = E ^ ^ ^ = ^ ^ ^ = ij I = 10 ' J£^= = 0 , , , I (4.00%) (3.00%) (2.00%) (1.00%) 0.00% Female 3.3 Future Long Run Levels of Migratory Flows Given the wide and diverse range of factors that influence each of the components of migratory population flows into and out of the Regional District, and the realization that many of these factors are influenced by conditions both within and outside its physical boundaries, it is not realistic to attempt to forecast changes in each of them individually. Given the objective of demonstrating the role of a long-run baseline population projection in a framework for the evaluation community change, past levels of migratory flows are used as a basis from which to forecast their future levels. 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 4.00% Male A Framework for Community Change Chapter 3 Page 48 In terms of age profiles and sex composition of migrant flows, it is assumed they maintain the 1991 to 1996 average presented in the previous sections. While there will certainly be shifts in the age profile of migrant populations from year to year, the average profiles used in this projection will generally represent the average age and gender composition of future flows. Thus, it is assumed for the purposes of this projection that the average levels of population flows into and out of the District that prevailed in the past decade are an appropriate base for estimation of those that will be seen in the future. Given the historical resource flows of the regional economy, future cycles of growth will undoubtedly occur. While it is difficult to predict these cycles, given current awareness of transformations in international markets and local economic diversification, a movement away from historical ties to resource and commodity markets is being seen throughout the Regional District. It is unlikely that future cycles will exceed those experienced over the past decade. a. Intra-provincial migration It has been assumed that as the region's (and the province's) economy improves, population growth from net intra provincial migration will increase to the 1,700 people per year range, approximating the average increase that has been experienced by the district over the past nine years (Figure 27). b. Inter-provincial migration In the case of inter-provincial in-migration, it is necessary to acknowledge two factors: first, the recent stabilization of population change in the provinces of Saskatchewan, Manitoba and the Maritimes and, second, the fact that much of the high level of in-migration during the 1990 to 1995 period was the result of very unusual economic circumstances in the provinces of Alberta and Ontario. With the amount of net out-migration from the so-called "have not" provinces of Canada declining, they will not be as much of a source of in-migrants for BC and the Okanagan. With the restructuring of economies in Alberta and Ontario essentially complete, their role as a source of labour force migrants will also diminish. Therefore, it has been assumed that net inter-provincial migration will contribute approximately 2,100 people to the District each year over the next four decades, approximating the average of 2,000 people per year that has been seen over the past decade. Adjusting for these differences in the sources of migration to the Regional District leads to a general conclusion that net domestic migration to the province in the future will be less than it has been over the past decade and a half. Figure 27 shows that the long run average level of net domestic migration to the region will be in the range of 3,850 people per year, 60% A Framework for Community Change Chapter 3 Page 49 (approximately 2,100 people per year) from net inter-provincial, and 40% from net-intra provincial (approximately 1,700 people per year). It will peak around 2021 as a result of the bulge of the baby boom moving into the region as they reach retirement. c. Net International Migration It is assumed that the District will receive a constant share of Provincial net immigration over the coming four decades, which is represented by the average seen over the past decade. This will result in net immigration to the region climbing from 1998's 369 people to 508 people by 2040 (Figure 27). Approximately 80%) of this net growth comes from immigration (immigration minus emigration), 19% from Canadians returning to the District from overseas and 1% from non- permanent residents such as students or diplomats. Note that this is a projection of long run trends, smoothing the year-to-year fluctuations that will inevitably occur. Figure 27: Net International, Net Inter-Provincial and Net Intra-provincial Migration, Central Okanagan Regional District, 1991 to 2040 3.4 Baseline Projection, 1999 to 2040 The net result of the aging of the Central Okanagan's current population, natural change and the projection of trends in migration will be continuous population growth, albeit at a slowing rate. Figure 28 shows that the population of the region will increase from 152,343 people in 1999 to 326,715 by 2040 as the District adds 174,372 new residents. The rate of population growth is A Framework for Community Change Chapter 3 Page 50 projected to drop from the 2% to 11% per annum rates seen in the 1970's and early 1990's, to the 1% to 2.2% range over the projection period. Figure 28: Population Growth, Central Okanagan Regional District, 1971 to 1999, Projected to 2040 Figure 29: Natural Increase, Central Okanagan Regional District, 1991 to 1999, Projected to 2040 A Framework for Community Change • . Chapter 3 Page 51 This considerable slowing in the rate of growth will be a result of a) the assumption of constant migration after 2021 and b) the aging of bulk of the baby boom into the high mortality age groups. By 2031 the annual number of deaths will be greater than the number births, even with migration, and natural increase wil l become negative: by 2040 there wil l be 323 more deaths than births (Figure 29). While the projected 114% growth in the region's population is substantial, its change will be even greater: the 65 plus population will increase twice as fast, and the under 15 population half as fast, as the total population. This dramatic change will be reflected in the beneficiary ratios: by 2040 the youth beneficiary ratio would be 245 people under the age of 15 for every 1000 people of working age, not significantly different than the 274 per 1000 seen in 1999 or the 216 per 1000 that would occur without migration (compare Figure 30 to Figure 15). However, over the coming four decades the elderly beneficiary ratio will increase from 263 people over 65 per 1000 of working age to 358 by 2040. By 2040 the elderly beneficiary ration will be 70%) greater than the youth beneficiary ratio. The direct and indirect impact of migration on the age structure of Okanagan's population is to significantly reduce the relative number of people supported, to one extent or another, by the working population: migration makes the region's population younger. Note, however, that while migration acts to slow the aging of the region's population age profile, it wil l not stop it. Figure 30: Projected Dependancy Ratios, Baseline Scenario, Youth (Number of People Under 15 years of Age Per 1000 People of Working Age, 15 to 64) A Framework for Community Change Chapter 3 Page 52 Figure 31: Age Profile of the Central Okanagan Regional District's Population, 1971 to 2040 2,300 1,800 1,300 800 300 200 700 1,200 1,700 2,200 Female Male The significant change in composition that has, and wi l l increasingly be, seen on the region's population is shown in comparing the past pyramids (1971) and future population profiles of the region. Figure 31 shows that the typical person in the Region in 1971 was 15 years old. B y 1999 the typical person had become a 40 year old as the bulge of the baby boom moved up the profile. The absolute number of people in every age groups wi l l increase over the next four decades in the Central Okanagan. The aging of the baby boom bulge into the 45 plus age groups where there are currently relatively few people w i l l mean that these age groups wi l l experience the most dramatic increases over the 1999 to 2040 period (Figure 32). Every age group over the age of 45 wi l l grow up to 178% more than the regional average, while each of the age groups under the age of 45 w i l l grow by up to 4 3 % less. The biggest absolute increase, 26,528 more people, w i l l be in the 55 to 64 age group, and the largest percentage increase wi l l be the 292% increase of the 85 plus age group which wi l l add 8,264 people. This compares to rates in the younger age groups that range from 7 1 % to 114%. A Framework for Community Change Chapter 3 Page 53 Figure 32: Projected Increase in the Central Okanagan Regional District's Population by Age Group, 1999 to 2040 0..14 15..24 25..34 35..44 45..54 55..64 65..74 75..84 85+ The change in population that w i l l accompany the aging of current residents w i l l lead to a wave of change that w i l l be felt through successive age groups. This is shown by growth indices, where the number of people in an age group in future years is divided by the number of people in that age group in 1999 (Figure 33). When a growth index has a value of 1.00 it means that there are the same number of people in the age group in the year under consideration that there were in the base year (here 1999); when the value is 2.00, it means that there are twice as many people, indicating a 100% increase. The growth of the Central Okanagan Regional District 's population from 152,343 to 326,715 between 1999 and 2040 is a 114% increase: there w i l l be 2.14 people in 2040 for every one in 1999. Over the short term, between 1999 and 2004, the 45 to 54 age group wi l l be the most rapidly growing age group (Figure 33). The number of people in this age group wi l l continue to increase significantly until 2010, when it w i l l have 1.22 times as many (22% more) people than it had in 1999. B y 2010, today's 35 to 44 year olds (the big bulge of the baby boom) wi l l have all aged into the 45 to 54 age group: after that, only migration wi l l offset what otherwise would be a decline in the number of the people in the 45 to 54 age group, as the number of boomers aging out o f it w i l l be larger than the number of post boomers aging into it: in 2040, there wi l l be 2.14 times (114% more) people in the age group than there were in 1999. A Framework for Community Change Chapter 3 Page 54 Figure 33: Growth Indicies By Age Group, Central Okanagan Regional District, 1999 to 2040 From 2011 to 2025 the 55 to 64 age group wi l l experience the most rapid increase, and from 1999 to 2024 the greatest overall growth rate, of all age groups. This is the result o f the first of the baby boomers aging into this cohort by 2002, and all o f them reaching this age by 2024. In 2024, there wi l l be 2.20 times the number o f 55 to 64 year olds in the Regional District than there were in 1999. After 2024, most of the boomers wi l l have had their 65 t h birthday, and aged out of this age group. A s a result, it w i l l grow only slowly during the remainder o f the projection period, with its 2040 population being 2.78 times (178%) larger than it was in 1999. The 2000 to 2025 period wi l l be when the most significant impact on markets driven by lifecycle demand w i l l be felt as the large bulge of the boom ages into the retirement stage of the lifecycle and has a significant impact on the demand for housing, community recreational facilities and medical services to name just a few. The 65 to 74 age group wi l l have the fourth greatest increase over the 1999 to 2040 period, with there being 2.50 people aged 65 to 74 in 2040 for every one that there was in 1999. The age group wi l l grow strongly throughout the 2010 to 2030 period, as the last o f the boomers (those born in 1966) w i l l not have their 65 t h birthday until 2031; after this date the size o f the age group wi l l remain relatively stable, increasing only as a result o f the aging of migrants and reductions in mortality rates in the under 75 age groups. A Framework for Community Change Chapter 3 Page 55 The 75 to 84 age group will experience rapid growth from 2016 on, with the first of the boomers reaching it by 2021, and hence speeding its rate of increase, to reach 2.24 times its size (a 124% increase) by 2030. The number of people in this age group will continue to increase significantly until at least 2041; it will be the second most rapidly growing age group in the region after 2034. Substantial growth in the 85 plus population will start in 2031, when the first of today's 53 year olds has their 85 l h birthday. Note, however, that the population over the age of 85 grows both significantly and continuously throughout the projection period, surpassing the (percentage) growth of all groups between 2006 and 2010, and all but the 75 to 84 age group between 2013 and 2040. This is the result of three factors. The first being long life expectancies of today's population, meaning that a large proportion of today's population can anticipate having an 85 t h birthday. The second factor is that there were many more births in the 1912 to 1939 period than there were in the preceding decades, so there are more people in every corresponding under 85 age group today than there were in the past (meaning there are generally more people to benefit from long life expectancies). Third, there are very few people in this age group today, meaning small increases in numbers result in large percentage increases. 3.5 Conclusions The population projection, both with and without migration, shows that population change will proceed at a much greater rate than population growth (or decline). In the no-growth situation total population was projected to decline by 10%. Each of the groups under the age of 55 would experience declines, the largest being the 0 to 14 age group, the result of fewer people in the stage of the lifecycle having kids and below the replacement level birth rates (Figure 34). Each of the age groups over the age of 55 would increase as a result of the aging of current residents, regardless of growth or decline in total population. The largest absolute increase would be seen in the 75 to 84 age group which would grow by almost 7,200 people. The largest relative increase would be seen in the 85 plus age group which would grow by 171% (Figure 16) over the 1999 to 2040 period in the face of a 10% total decline in population. The planning implications in such a situation are substantial, although not necessarily current notions of growth management. A Framework for Community Change Chapter 3 Page 56 Figure 34: Projected Increase in the Central Okanagan Regional District's Population by Age Group, 1999 to 2040 0..14 15..24 25..34 35..44 45..54 55..64 65..74 75..84 85+ Even in the situation of growth, issues of change will still predominate: over the coming four decades the total population of the Central Okanagan is projected to grow by 114%, with each of the age groups over the age of 55 to experiencing substantially higher growth rates between 151% and 292% (Figure 34). What the framework also illustrates is that, with or without aggregate population growth, we have a good approximation of tomorrow's population in those who are residents today. The population of the Central Okanagan will be a significantly older version of what is seen today. Figure 35 shows the annual contribution that aging, natural increase and migration to the future population of the region: by 2020 77% of the residents of the region will be people who are currently residing in the region. Over the longer term of the projection the influence of migration will be greater than in the short term: 55% of 2040's population will be comprised of 1999 residents. A Framework for Community Change Chapter 3 Page 57 Figure 35: Trend Based Projection, Central Okanagan Regional District, 1999 to 2040 IT; m K SO 300,000 g 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 3 HIIIIIIIIIIIIH Consequences of Migration Biological Cosnsequences of 1999 Population Survivors of 1999 Population — ro *n S 3 fS rs These patterns of the aging show that there will be significant challenges presented at both ends of the planning spectrum: at one end there will increasingly be issues of aging in place as the bulk of the already resident Boomers move into the "empty nester" stage of the lifecycle and reach retirement. On the other are the newly nesting families in the District searching for family homes, economic opportunities and lifestyle. Just as the baby boom spurred the massive suburban housing boom of the 1950's, the aging of this generation in to the empty nester stage of the lifecycle will have a significant impact on land uses and, more importantly, land efficiency throughout the region. Some of these empty nesters will move towards smaller dwelling forms such as small ground-oriented units or apartments in more urban settings. However, as Figure 36 shows, the vast majority will remain in the dwellings and communities where they raised their families. This process will perpetuate itself as the kids of the Boom generation start families, and begin to compete with their parents, and potentially their parents' parents, for housing that meets their needs. A Framework for Community Change Chapter 3 Page 58 Figure 36: Population of British Columbia, 5 years of Age and Older, By Mobility Status, 1996 ^^ ^^ ^^ J^ ^ ^^^^^^j ^ ^^ ^^ ^^ J ^ i^ ^^ ^^ j^ ^ ^^ ^^ ^^ J t^ ^^ -^M-J L _ ^ » ! M J ^^^^^^ J^ ^^ ^^ ^^ H^ Total- 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65^9 70-74 75 and Age over The foundation of a framework for the evaluation of community and regional management must, at the least, consider an age specific population projection, as it alone w i l l show the fundamental changes in composition and hence demands brought about by lifecycle change. A s illustrated above the issues of change are captured within the processes of growth and change. The next step in the development of the framework is to tie the foundation of growth and change to lifecycle and lifestyle patterns which have implications for managing urban and rural change over the coming four decades. The next chapter outlines the impact growth and change w i l l have on housing demand in the Central Okanagan Regional District between 1999 and 2040. Endnotes 1 Greater Vancouver Regional District, Livable Region Strategic Plan: Strategic Planning, 1995 p.9 2 Statistics Canada's estimate of the Central Okanagan's 1998 population is 148,993. Historical data for the Central Okanagan's population are from Statistics Canada's Annual Demographic Statistics and Census of Canada publications for referenced years. Historical population estimates for previous years will be above the values reported in the Census of Canada, as population estimates are adjusted upwards to account for people missed in the census count, which is referred to as adjusting for the Census undercount. 3 The mode, or most frequently occurring age. 4 The mean age. There are two reasons why the average age of women was older than that for men: first, there are more male babies than female babies, pulling down the average age for males; second, women have longer life expectancies, pulling up the average age for females. 5 The number of deaths in the Central Okanagan used to calculate mortality rates are from Statistics Canada's Annual Demographic Statistics; 1998. 6 Rather than use the rates for a single year, which could show significant variation for any one age, it is practice to average the rate to get a more stable rate that is reflective of the long run relationship between age and the rate. Thus, A Framework for Community Change Chapter 3 Page 59 i n a l l r a t e s a n d a g e p r o f i l e s f o r c o m p o n e n t s o f m i g r a t i o n , t h e d a t a a n d r a t e s f o r 1 9 9 6 a r e t h e a v e r a g e o f 1 9 9 1 t o 1 9 9 6 . D u e t o r a n d o m r o u n d i n g o f d a t a a n d c o n f i d e n t i a l i t y p o l i c i e s f r o m S t a t i s t i c s C a n a d a , e v e n w i t h a v e r a g i n g t h e n u m b e r o f d e a t h s o v e r t h i s 6 p e r i o d z e r o v a l u e s a p p e a r i n s o m e a g e c a t e g o r i e s . W h e n z e r o v a l u e s w e r e e n c o u n t e r e d i n t h e d a t a , t h e n u m b e r f o r t h a t a g e g r o u p w a s i n t e r p o l a t e d u s i n g t h e c h a n g e i n t h e r a t e s b e t w e e n t h a t a n d t h e p r e v i o u s a g e g r o u p t h a t w e r e s e e n a t t h e p r o v i n c i a l l e v e l . F o r e x a m p l e , i f a z e r o v a l u e w a s f o u n d i n t h e 2 4 y e a r o l d a g e g r o u p , t h e d a t a w o u l d b e i n t e r p o l a t e d u s i n g t h e c h a n g e b e t w e e n t h e 2 3 a n d 2 4 y e a r o l d r a t e f o r t h e p r o v i n c e . 7 T h e m o d e l a s s u m e s t h a t t h i s 1 i n 1 r a t e w i l l b e r e a c h e d b y t h e a g e o f 1 0 0 . T h e r e f o r e t h e m o r t a l i t y r a t e f o r t h e 1 0 0 a g e g r o u p i s a s s u m e d t o b e 1 0 0 % . 8 F o r a d i s c u s s i o n o f c h a n g e s i n l i f e e x p e c t a n c y i n C a n a d a , s e e W h a t C a n Y o u E x p e c t ? L i f e E x p e c t a n c y i n C a n a d a . 1 9 2 1 t o 2 0 2 1 . T h e U r b a n F u t u r e s I n s t i t u t e , 1 9 9 8 . 9 T h e b i r t h r a t e s u s e d i n t h e m o d e l a r e 5 - y e a r d a t a a l l o c a t e d t o s i n g l e y e a r s b a s e d o n t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f b i r t h s a t t h e p r o v i n c i a l l e v e l . 1 0 F o r a f u r t h e r d i s c u s s i o n , p l e a s e s e e B a b e s i n L o t u s L a n d : B i r t h s . B i r t h r a t e s a n d t h e i r D e m a n d I m p l i c a t i o n s i n B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a . 1 9 2 1 t o 2 0 2 1 . T h e U r b a n F u t u r e s I n s t i t u t e , 1 9 9 7 . 1 1 B C S t a t i s t i c s , P E O P L E 2 4 . 1 9 9 9 . 1 2 T h e s e r a t e s r e p r e s e n t s t h e p r o v i n c i a l s p l i t b e t w e e n t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f m a l e a n d f e m a l e b i r t h s f r o m t h e m o s t r e c e n t C e n s u s o f C a n a d a S u r v e y ( 1 9 9 6 ) . Page 60 ~~ fife, ••. WWSF . Housing Demand: The Link Between Population and Land Use "We should be on our guard not to overestimate science and scientific methods when it is a question of human problems; and we should not assume that experts are the only ones who have the right to express themselves on questions affecting the organization of society." (Albert Einstein, 1949) A projection of the size and composition of a population is the foundation for an evaluative planning framework. It is necessary to build upon this foundation by linking the projection with population dependant demand variables, most importantly those that are influenced by age, or stages in the lifecycle. There are many lifecycle behavioral variables which have direct implications for land use management, from the use of public transit and the private automobile to demand for healthcare and social services. Housing demand has been selected as an example for the next step in the development of this planning framework for three reasons. First, housing is the major land use in urban areas, and hence any management strategy must address the impact of changes in its demand over time. Second, housing generates significant linked demand for other urban infrastructure (such as roads, sewers, schools, hospitals, stores and recreational facilities). Thus, even i f management policies are not concerned with housing directly, their evaluation requires a framework that considers housing. The third reason is that community and regional planning goals generally give emphasis to the location, quality and affordability of housing. A comprehensive framework will assist a community in the evaluation of change to inform future policy directions. In this chapter the basic elements of a housing forecast are presented as a component of the framework to evaluate community change2. The forecast is presented using the Central Okanagan Regional District as a case study and begins with a discussion of the lifecycle patterns of housing occupancy before considering how these patterns will influence the future demand for housing in this Regional District. 4.1 Age Specific Household Maintainer Rates In the census questionnaire used to gather data on housing each household (a group of people living together in a self contained living quarters) is asked to indicate the age and other A Framework for Community Change Chapter 4 Page 61 attributes of the person considered to be primarily responsible for the financial support of the household3. This person is defined as the (primary) household maintainer. The percentage of people in each age group who are maintainers is the age specific household maintainer rate. There is a strong lifecycle relationship between an individual's age and the probability that that they will be a household maintainer. Figure 37: Age Specific Household Maintainer Rates, Central Okangan Regional District, 1996 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 3% 0% >™ m i 45% 48% 53% 55%: 55% 55% mm 156%1 59%1 •61% 68% 69% 50% 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+ The age specific patterns of household maintainership in the Central Okanagan Regional District (Figure 37) are generally representative of other urban regions throughout the province and the rest of North America. People under the age of 15 are not household maintainers as they live in housing maintained by their parents or guardians. The 15 to 19 age group, the earliest age when people become household maintainers, has a maintainer rate of 3%, indicating that out of 100 people in this age group, only 3 will be household maintainers. As with the under 15 age group, the majority of the people between the ages of 15 and 19 live in households maintained by their parents. Substantial increases in household maintainer rates occur once people age out of their teenage years. For example, in the 20 to 24 age group, the percentage of people maintaining households jumps to 25%, as a large number of young adults have left their parents home to establish their own households. This rapid growth in maintainer rates continues into the 25 to 29 age group where 45% of the people maintain households. A Framework for Community Change Chapter 4 Page 62 In all age groups over the age of 35, the percentage of household maintainers is above 50%. The household maintainer rate increases from 53% in the 35 to 39 group to peak at 69% in the 80 to 84 age group. The percentage of individuals living on their own increases in the 75 to 84 age groups as a result of factors such as lifestyle choice, divorce, or. the death of a spouse. There is a slight drop in household maintainer rates in the 85 plus age group as some elderly people can no longer maintain their own households and move into care facilities or in with relatives or friends. Even without population growth, the change in household maintainer rates over the lifecycle has significant implications for housing demand. Using the age specific rates for the Central Okanagan Regional District as an example, there would be only 30 households maintained for every 1000 people in the 15 to 19 age group today (a 3% maintainer rate). Five years later, when these 1,000 people age into the 20 to 24 group, they would maintain 250 households and, five years after that, when they are in the 25 to 29 age group, they would maintain 450 households. Over this ten year period the occupancy demand for housing from the same 1,000 people would have increased by 1500%, from 30 households today to 450 units ten years from now, as a result of population change (namely the aging of current residents). It is this process of change that is impacting Newton, the Boston suburb where Benjamin Chintz lives that is experiencing further development in the absence of aggregate population growth. 4.1.2 Structure Types An age specific relationship is also seen in structure type specific maintainer rates. Generally speaking throughout the lifecycle individuals are more likely to be maintainers of ground-oriented dwellings than they are to maintain apartment units4. It is only in the relatively young (under 30) and relatively old (65 and older) age groups where apartment maintainer rates become significant. A Framework for Community Change Chapter 4 Page 63 Figure 38: Household Maintainer Rates by Age and Major Structure Type, Central Okanagan Regional District, 1996 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+ For example, in the Central Okanagan Regional District, the maintainer rates for households in ground-oriented accommodation are higher than the maintainer rate for apartments in every age group (Figure 38). The closest the maintainer rates for these two structure types come is in the youngest age group: 2% of the 15 to 19 age group in the Regional District are maintainers of households in ground-oriented units, while 1% maintain apartment units (the other 97% live in households maintained by someone else). Apartment maintainer rates increase for 20 to 24 and 25 to 29 age groups before declining once the age of 30 is reached where between 4% and 6% of the people maintain apartments. From the age of 45 on apartment maintainer rates increase with age, surpassing the rates for the young adult age groups by age 75, to reach a peak of 30% in the 80 to 84 age group. Note that even though the 80 to 84 age group has the highest apartment maintainer rate, a person in this age group is still 1.3 times more l ikely to be the maintainer of a household l iving in a ground-oriented unit (39%) than one l iving in an apartment (30%). Ground-oriented maintainer rates attain prominence early, and hold throughout the lifecycle. In the 20 to 24 age group, only 16% of the people in the Central Okanagan Regional District are maintainers of households l iving in ground-oriented units: by the time these people reach the age of 40, the rate has jumped to 51% (13 times the 4% who are maintainers of households in apartments). The ground-oriented rates remain high (in the 46% to 51% range) throughout the 35 to 79 age groups. A Framework for Community Change Chapter 4 Page 64 A distinct lifecycle pattern is also seen in more detailed structure types (Figure 39). Maintainer rates for most age groups are dominated by single-detached units: maintainer rates for this structure type range from under 1% (the 15 to 19 age group) to 44% (the 40 to 44 age group)5. The next highest maintainer rates for ground-oriented dwellings are other ground-oriented units where maintainer rates range between 12% (the 45 to 49 age group) and 59% (15 to 19)6. Row houses have the lowest rates, ranging from between 4% (in the 15 to 19 age group) and 17% (45 to 49) of people maintaining dwelling units7. Figure 39: Household Maintainer Rates by Age and Detailed Structure Type, Central Okanagan Regional District, 1996 I Apartment Greater Than 5 Stories j— ^J"~— 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+ Figure 39 also shows that the highest apartment maintainer rates are for low-rise apartment units (under five storeys) ranging from 1 % in the 15 to 19 age group to 29% of people in the 80 to 84 age groups. Maintainer rates for high-rise buildings range between zero (35 to 39 age group) and 1.3% (80 to 84 age group). The aging populations throughout North American communities over the next two decades will place significant demand pressure on ground-oriented markets as a result of the rapid and significant growth of the 45 to 74 age groups with their high ground-oriented maintainer rates. Given current occupancy patterns, much of this growth in demand will be for single-detached homes in suburban locations. Over the longer term, markets will experience rapid growth in demand for apartments, as a result of rapid growth in the population over the age of 60, and substantial additions to the younger age groups where maintainer rates for apartment units are high. A Framework for Community Change 4.1.3 Changing Household Maintainer Rates Chapter 4 Page 65 Given the lifecycle patterns such as that shown earlier for housing, a change in a community's age structure (demographic change) w i l l have a direct impact on land uses that w i l l be independent o f aggregate population growth. Another source of change is behavioural, shown by changes in the lifecycle patterns themselves. A s an illustration of behavioural change it is useful to briefly consider the extent of changes in the lifecycle patterns of housing. Although historical data do not permit the examination o f long term changes in household maintainer rates by age and structure types for the Central Okanagan, it is possible to look to trends at the provincial level to see how total household maintainer rates have changed over the past 35 years. Changes in age specific rates over the last Census period at the Regional District level can also be examined, but only for the most recent Census periods. Ground-oriented maintainer rates in British Columbia increased only slightly during the 1961 to 1996 period (Figure 40). Over this period 1981 marked the high point in maintainer rates for most age groups, the result o f economic prosperity and rapid urban expansion that characterized the 1970's. The recession o f the early 1980's and increasing density in province's urban centres resulted in a general decline in the ground-oriented rates for the under 45 population between 1981 and 1996. In contrast, by 1996 rates for the 55 to 64 and 65 plus age groups were close to their 1961 to 1991 peaks. Having made these observations, Figure 40 shows that over the past three and a half decades these changes have been minor. Figure 40: Ground Oriented Household Maintainers by Age, British Columbia, 1961 to 1996 15..24 25..34 35..44 45..54 55..64 65+ A Framework for Community Change Chapter 4 Page 66 Figure 41: Apartment Household Maintainers by Age Group, British Columbia, 1961 to 1996 15..24 25..34 35..44 45..S4 55..64 65+ A s economic prosperity and rapid urban expansion of the seventies permitted the 25 to 64 age groups to have their highest ground-oriented maintainer rates by 1981, it is reasonable to expect that they would be matched by relatively low apartment maintainer rates (Figure 41). The effects o f the 1980's recession and increasing urbanization meant that, relative to 1961, apartment maintainer rates were higher in 1996. Changing apartment maintainer rates were the result o f several factors, including a significant movement towards urban regions of the province, and the significant increase in one-person households that accompanied this urbanization. Whi le these rates generally increased throughout the period for the under 55 age group, they have been relatively stable for the 55 and older population. Between 1961 and 1971, increasing urbanization, higher divorce rates and increasing life expectancy all lead to apartments playing a growing role in the housing of this segment o f the population. Figure 41 shows that 1971 marked the peak in apartment maintainer rates in the 55 to 64 and 65 plus age groups, with each successive Census showing a decline. Combined with the slight increases in the ground-oriented maintainer rates for the over 55 population, it would appear that greater health and increasing life expectancies for the seniors' population means that they are, and may increasingly be, able to live in their ground-oriented homes for longer. A Framework for Community Change Chapter 4 Page 67 Figure 42: Change in Household Maintainer Rates by Age and Major Structure Type, Central Okanagan Regional District, 1991 to 1996 5% 3% 1% -1% -3% -5% 15..24 25..34 35..44 45..54 55..64 6S..74 75+ A general stability in maintainer rates are also seen in recent Census data for the Central Okanagan. Between 1991 and 1996 ground-oriented rates for al l age groups under the age of 75 declined, while increases occurred in the 75 plus age groups (Figure 42). It would appear that increasing rates for the older age groups was the result o f increases in life expectancy and greater mobil ity enjoyed by seniors today, while declines in maintainer rates for the younger age groups were possibly the result of changing lifestyles, continued urbanization and increasing real housing prices. Changes in apartment maintainer rates support this trend as they increased slightly for all age groups between the 1991 and 1996 Census (Figure 43). Given these changes, there may exist grounds to argue that historical trends towards declining ground-oriented maintainer rates and increasing apartment maintainer rates w i l l continue. However, looking at this aggregate level masks trends seen with each of these structure types. A s illustrated by Figures 42 and 43, although a slight shift was seen between ground-oriented and apartment maintainer rates, a more substantial change was seen within the different structure types over the last two Census periods; declines in single-detached rates were contrasted by increases in other ground-oriented dwell ing forms. A Framework for Community Change Chapter 4 Page 68 Figure 43: Change in Household Maintainer Rates by Age and Ground Oriented Structure Types, Central Okanagan Regional District, 1991 to 1996 0.9% 0.3% -0.1% --1.1% -2.1% -3.1% 0^TT% -3.0% Single Detached 15..24 25..34 35..44 45..S4 S5..64 65..74 75+ 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% Figure 44: Change in Household Maintainer Rates by Age and Apartment Structure Types, Central Okanagan Regional District, 1991 to 1996 Under 5 storeys 2.4% Greater than 5 Storeys -0.9% 15..24 25..34 35..44 45..54 55..64 65..74 75+ Although not shown in the available data of the Central Okanagan, there is also a pattern of substitution within specific structure types. Trends may point towards homebuyers being increasingly concerned with the quality of the neighbourhood in which they live rather A Framework for Community Change Chapter 4 Page 69 than the physical size of residential lots. A recent study from Rutgers University shows that the physical size of a lot could be reduced by 20% to 25% before home purchasers objected8. Thus while shifts between ground-oriented and apartment housing formats may occurr only over long periods of time, shifts within each of these formats are more readily seen, and have a significant impact on both lot and home sizes. These latter changes may also be more susceptible to local changes in land use policy. 4.2 Housing Demand in the Central Okanagan Regional District, 1999 to 2040 For the purposes of this projection it is assumed that household maintainer rates by detailed structure type will remain at their 1996 level. This assumption has been made for two reasons. First, as the previous section illustrates, maintainer rates have remained relatively stable over the past three and a half decades and can reasonably be assumed to remain constant over the coming four decades. Second, although each could be given consideration, the focus of this particular study is to establish the overall framework for evaluating the impacts of demographic change, and not to test implications of policy shifts or behavioral modifications. Having said this, to demonstrate the use of a framework to test the impact of both behavioural and policy changes, the impact of changes lot size within a structure type will be considered in the next chapter. 4.2.1 An Overview of 1999 to 2040 Increases in Demand The result of combining 1996 age specific structure type maintainer rates and the population projection is a forecast of net occupancy demand for housing in the Central Okanagan Regional District increasing by 128% between 1999 and 2040: there will need to be 77,700 more dwelling units added to the housing stock in order to accommodate the 114% percent (174,400 person) increase in population (Figure 45). The growth in demand for housing can be expected to exceed that of the population as a result of changes in the age structure of the Region's population: the 45 and older age groups ~ those with the highest propensity to be household maintainers ~ will grow much faster than the population as a whole. As the 45 to 74 age groups have the highest ground-oriented household maintainer rates, and the greatest projected absolute and percentage increase, it comes as no surprise that the greatest absolute increase for housing wil l be in demand for ground-oriented accommodation. There will be a net increase in the occupied ground-oriented housing stock of 61,800 additional units (124% increase) over the next fourty years. Over the same period, A Framework for Community Change Chapter 4 Page 70 demand for apartments w i l l increase by 15,800 units (142%), an increase driven by the growth of the population over the age of 60 and under the age of 25. Figure 45: Additonal Occupancy Demand, Central Okanagan Regional District, 1999 to 2040 Population Households Ground-Oriented Single-Detached Duplex and Other Row House Apartment Apartment <5 Apartment 5 storeys 1999 152,343 1999 60,853 1999 49.748 1999 37,925 1999 8,353 1999 3,468 1999 11,105 storeys + 2040 326,714 21140 138.533 2041)111.595 2040 85,072 2040 18,492 2040 8,030 2040 26,937 1999 111,300 1999 745 174,400 77,700 61,800 47,100 10,100 4,600 15,800 2040 25,596 2040 1,341 15,200 600 Within the ground-oriented format, growth w i l l be dominated by demand for single-detached homes: the demand for this type of accommodation wi l l increase by 124% (47,100 more households), while that for duplex and other ground-oriented accommodation wi l l increase by 120% (10,100 households) and row accommodation w i l l grow by 133% (4,600 more units). The difference in absolute growth between ground-oriented structure types again reflects the high growth that is projected in the older age groups, high maintainer rates for single-detached ground-oriented dwell ing formats. In turn, large relative increases in other ground-oriented structures is the result o f there being a smaller stock of other ground-oriented and row houses in 1999 compared to single-detached units, making increases more dramatic in relative terms than those of single-detached units. High apartment maintainer rates for the 55 plus population combined with the rapid growth for these age groups means that the most rapidly growing sector o f the housing market in the Central Okanagan Regional District over the next 40 years w i l l be apartments. A 142% increase (15,800 units) in the occupied stock of apartments is projected over the 1999 to 2040 period. Although this is a greater relative increase than that o f ground-oriented units, given the A Framework for Community Change Chapter 4 Page 71 small current stock o f apartment units, the absolute growth wi l l be a quarter o f that for ground-oriented units (15,800 versus 61,800 units). This projection o f housing demand (a 128% increase in demand) shows both the impact of growth (a 114% increase in population) and change. Even without population growth, change in housing demand wi l l occur. This can be illustrated by using the no migration scenario (declining total population) presented in the preceding chapter together with the 1996 maintainer rates presented here. Even with the 10% decline in population shown by this scenario, population change wi l l lead to 1% increase in housing demand. If individual structure types are considered between 1999 and 2040 growth wi l l be an 18% increase in demand for apartment units, driven by the aging of the regions residents and high apartment maintainer rates in these older age groups (Figure 46). A s the maintainer rates for apartments is primarily for units under 5 storeys, increases would occur only in these low rise units (22%), with demand for units in 5 or more storey buildings declining by 27%. Figure 46: Additonal Occupancy Demand, Central Okanagan Regional District, No Growth Scenario, 1999 to 2040 Population Household* Ground-Oriented Single-Detached Duplex and Other Row House Apartment 1999 152,343 1999 611,853 1999 49,748 1999 37,925 1999 8353 1999 3,468 1999 11,105 2040 137,081 2040 61,600 2040 48,478 2040 36,932 21)4(17,873 2040 3,671 2040 13,122 -15J00 700 -1,300 -1,000 -500 200 2000 Apartment <5 shnvys 1999 10,360 2040 12,621 2300 Apartment 5 storey s+ 1999 745 2040 500 -200 A 3% decline in occupancy demand in the ground-oriented market w i l l result from the projected decline in the 25 to 54 age groups in the absence of migration. This overall decline in the ground-oriented demand masks a 6% increase in the demand for row housing which wi l l be the result o f high maintainer rates for this structure type and the high growth rates for the 70 plus age groups. A Framework for Community Change Chapter 4 Page 72 4.2.2 Patterns of Change From 1999 to 2040 Housing demand in the Central Okanagan Regional District w i l l see a relatively stable annual pattern of growth that w i l l mirror the projected patterns of population growth and change. The total increase in housing stock w i l l be 77,700 units (128%), implying an average increase of 1,900 units per year. Demographic change w i l l result in the greatest increase in demand being between 2020 and 2030, when an average of 2,000 additional units w i l l be demanded each year (Figure 47). Over the projection period population growth and housing demand wi l l by cycl ical . However, these cycles, generally related to provincial or national economic cycles, w i l l bring only short-term variances to projected housing demand. The projected annual additions to the housing stock then sets a framework through which land use decisions can be made. Figure 47: Projected Annual Additonal Housing Demand, Central Okanagan Regional District, 1999 to 2040 ( N u m b e r o f A d d i t i o n a l H o u s e h o l d s ) UlllPffllff] Although the greatest increases in additional housing demand w i l l be seen over this period, demand wi l l grow at the greatest rate over the first decade of the projection. Between 1999 and 2009 the total housing stock w i l l grow by 28% from 60,854 to 77,880 units. This 2.8% projected annual growth in housing demand w i l l be greater than overall annual population growth, which is projected to be in the 2.5% range. A Framework for Community Change Chapter 4 Page 73 4.2.3 Additional Annual Housing Demand by Detailed Structure Type O f the additional 61,800 ground-oriented units added to the Central Okanagan Regional District 's housing stock between 1999 and 2040, single-detached dwell ing units w i l l remain the dominant structure type. Figure 48 shows that each year an average of 1,140 single-detached units w i l l be demanded in the District, with peaks in demand seen between 2020 and 2025 associated with high growth in the 55 to 64 age groups. Demand for other ground-oriented accommodation w i l l fol low a similar pattern with between 280 and 380 of these dwellings added annually. Each year over the next fourty years an average of 360 apartment units w i l l be demanded in the District. 95% of this demand w i l l be in buildings under five storeys, while the remaining five percent o f apartment demand w i l l be seen in units over five storeys. Figure 48: Projected Annual Additonal Housing Demand by Detailed Structure Type, Central Okanagan Regional District, 1999 to 2040 ( N u m b e r o f A d d i t i o n a l H o u s e h o l d s ) 2,000 500 HfinH Apartment Other Ground Oriented Single Detached i l l ! L i Ilk i l l a* tn WJ <m M r4 rs I N os w* rO in I © F-l -H f-. . © © © © <L r 4 f N r s r s r ^ f N r ^ r 4 r M r ^ « ^ r ^ r 4 r s r s < N A Framework for Community Change Chapter 4 Page 74 4.3 Conclusions Over the first two decades of the projection, the overwhelming majority of total housing occupancy demand wi l l come from those who were already residents o f the Regional District in 1999 and their offspring (Figure 49). Figure 49: Total Occupancy Demand, Central Okanagan Regional District, 1999 to 2040 m is, X » 00 r*i 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 W C I B y 2006, as net demand for housing in the District grows to over 72,400 units, 61,700 of these units (85%) wi l l be to accommodate changing housing demands of the survivors o f the existing population and their offspring, while the remaining 10,700 units w i l l be attributed to demand from those who migrate to the region over this period. Even by 2021 63,200 of the projected 101,300 dwell ing units (62%) w i l l be to accommodate growth and change of the Region's 1999 residents. Therefore, a large proportion of future housing market activity wi l l be attributed to the changing needs of the region's 1999 population. Only over the longer term of the projection this pattern w i l l change with migrants to the region accounting for a greater proportion o f additional housing demand each year; by 2040 existing residents w i l l account for approximately 60,100 (43%) of the 138,533 dwell ing units projected to be seen in the District. The framework illustrates four implications of change on housing markets and land resources. First, that regardless of whether a community's total population grows or declines, growth in housing demand and pressure on land resources may occur. Given the nature o f population growth in the Central Okanagan, housing demand wi l l grow faster than total A Framework for Community Change Chapter 4 Page 75 population over the next four decades. Second, that change will have a greater influence than growth. Third that there will be an increasing need to deal with the where and how future residential demand is accommodated and, finally, that any management strategies will need to consider change in future policy decisions. As such, the next section of the framework considers the impact of change on land and location. As indicated earlier in this chapter, there are other scenarios in terms of an evaluative framework for managing change that should be considered. Variation to demand side scenarios are based on the assumptions made about people's housing occupancy behaviour: changes in maintainer rates may occur over time, with a greater emphasis on greater housing alternatives to the traditional suburban home. Supply side issues will occur with the provision of alternative forms of housing that allow people to substitute within dwelling structure types. It is possible to model behavioral or policy changes within the framework for their implications on housing markets, land use management and future policies to guide them. These changes will be shown in the next chapter in considering the impact of various lot sizes on land resources. Endnotes 2 As this chapter focuses on the relationship between people and their homes, it uses an occupancy-based definition of housing demand. Total housing demand is defined as the number of dwelling units required to house the inhabitants of a region. Demand is thus equated with residents' occupancy of dwelling units at a point in time. In this context, a change in housing demand over a period of time is the change in the number of dwelling units occupied by residents, calculated by subtracting from the number of occupied residences at one point in time the number of occupied residences at an earlier point. As growth in occupancy demand is met not only by new construction but also by households occupying units that were vacant at the beginning of the period, demand is not necessarily synonymous with housing construction activity. 3 Housing data are from a custom tabulation of 1996 Census of Canada data commissioned by The Urban Futures Institute and the Land Centre. 4 "Ground-oriented" dwelling units are defined as having an individual entrance from ground level directly into a household's living quarters rather than by way of a shared corridor. Such units may be joined side by side but are not generally stacked one on top of the other. 5 "Single-detached" homes have front and rear doors that open into yards, and side yards separating it from neighbouring dwellings. 6 "Other ground-oriented" dwellings include up-down duplexes, triplexes and suites in ground-oriented homes. Although these units are "stacked", they generally still have direct access to a yard. Also included within this structure type are moveable and mobile homes as they share similar yard characteristics. 7 "Row houses" have individual entrances that open into yards, but dwelling units are attached to other units on both sides, having no side yards separating them from adjoining units. 8 Burcell Robert et al., Costs of Sprawl Revisited: The Evidence of Sprawl's Negative and Positive Impacts: Rutgers University Center for Urban Policy Research, 1998. Page 76 Land Use and Financial Aspects of Change: Evaluating Options "Mere increase in size no more signifies improvement, or even adaptation, than technological expansion ensures a good life." (Lewis Mumford, 1961) Population and housing demand are two major causes of change in a community, but it is through changes in the use of land that much of population and housing change wil l be expressed. How and where change occurs within a community wil l contribute to a community's perception of both the quality and quantity of change. Within the regional planning context, population change is largely beyond the control of local authorities. Housing demand, determined by the strong major structure type preferences, is also beyond the control of regional planning. However, what can be influenced by policy is the location and density at which this development occurs. Therefore, the next step in the framework is to consider some policy implications of accommodating change. Within a framework for the evaluation of community change, the spatial component — in terms of where change occurs and how it uses land resources ~ will be of primary concern to communities seeking to manage change. Two aspects of the relationship between housing (and hence demographic) change and the use of land resources are considered. The first — location — is at the region wide level: where in a region change in housing demands is accommodated will determine the degree of its impact on existing community land uses, on infrastructure costs and on the environment. The second — lot size — spatial aspect is concerned with the how of accommodating change rather than the where: how land is used to accommodate change will to a large degree determine the direct and indirect costs of change in land and infrastructure servicing. Building on the framework established in the previous chapter, this chapter uses the framework to evaluate two sets of policy alternatives corresponding to the two spatial aspects (the where and the how) of accommodating change. With respect to the where, three scenario will be tested: a) continued acceleration of urban displacement in a region; b) maintenance of the status quo; and c) reversal to an increasing concentration of development in existing urban communities. Three scenarios with respect to the how are also considered: a) traditional low density suburban development; b) moderate density suburban development and; c) a combination of small lot suburban development and infill in existing communities. A Framework for Community Change Chapter 5 Page 77 A n eva lua t ive f r amework must have some means o f c o m p a r i n g scenar ios . In the f ramework presented here, a l ternat ives are first compared on the bas is o f net add i t i ona l land conver ted to res ident ia l uses f r o m non-urban uses, and on the bas is o f d i rect deve lopment costs, each represent ing the costs o f "how". T h e second componen t o f the eva lua t ion f r amework is to cons ide r the ind i rec t costs o f of fs i te inf rastructure use that d i f ferent spat ia l patterns o f deve lopment w i l l generate (the costs o f "where"). T h e th i rd leve l o f the eva lua t ion is the costs o f the oppor tun i t ies fo regone by se lec t ing a par t icu lar comb ina t i on o f "how" and "where" future change is accommoda ted . 5.1 Three Scenarios for the Sharing of Population Growth O v e r the past two decades K e l o w n a ' s share o f the R e g i o n a l D i s t r i c t ' s total popu la t ion has dec l i ned : in 1976 K e l o w n a had 7 3 % o f the D i s t r i c t ' s popu la t i on ; by 1999 it had 6 5 % (F igu re 50). H o w this share w i l l change in the future depends on p o l i c y dec is ions at two leve ls : po l i c i es at the R e g i o n a l D i s t r i c t l e v e l , as they estab l ish reg iona l management po l i c i es and programs w i t h respect to the loca t ion o f add i t ions to the hous ing stock, and at the sub- reg iona l leve l as commun i t i es estab l ish l oca l change management strategies. These p o l i c y dec i s ions w i l l , i m p l i c i t l y and exp l i c i t l y , g i ve a range o f scenar ios about wha t the C i t y ' s future share o f the R e g i o n ' s popu la t i on w i l l be. Three scenar ios are cons idered A Framework for Community Change Chapter 5 Page 78 here: they are described in the following paragraphs, depicted in Figure 52 and tabulated on Table 1. One possible scenario is that Kelowna's share of the District's population follows historical trends and continues to decline over the next four decades. To characterize this alternative, it can be assumed that the city will account for only one half of the District's population by 2040 compared to its current two-thirds share. This scenario would see Kelowna grow by 68,092 people from 99,599 in 1999 to 165,464 by 2040 as it accommodated 40% of the District's future growth (Figure 51). Under this scenario the population in Kelowna would increase by 42,400 people, growing by the same 70% over the coming four decades as was seen over the past two. If Kelowna's share of growth were to follow this historical pattern, the smaller cities and unincorporated areas within the District outside of Kelowna would accommodate an additional 108,507 people by 2040. Under this scenario, over 60% of future growth in the District would be outside of the City of Kelowna. This would lead to a threefold increase (206% compared to 108% over the past two decades) in population outside of Kelowna, as it grows from 35% of the regional total in 1999 to 50% by 2040. Figure 51: Population of Kelowna, 1976 to 1998, Projected to 2040 The second scenario would be for Kelowna to maintain its current 65% share of regional population. This would lead to its population growing by 117%) (116,578 people) to 216,177 over the coming four decades, while the rest of the District would see its population grow by 57,794 people or 110% (Figure 51). A Framework for Community Change Chapter 5 Page 79 The third scenario for the distribution of people in the Region would be if Kelowna were to increase its share of Regional population over the coming four decades. This scenario would see the city's population grow from 99,599 people in 1999 to 242,933 by 2040. This scenario would see 74% of the District's projected growth going to the City as it grows 2.5 times, and adds 143,334 new residents; the rest of the Regional District would grow by 59%, or 31,038 new residents. The potential for Kelowna increasing its share of regional growth exists as a result of growing consumer markets for urban services, cultural and social amenities and health care facilities. Table 1: Population Growth Scenarios, Kelowna and the Central Okanagan Regional District, 1998 to 2040 1999 2005 2010 2015 2020 2030 2040 Sceanrio 1 Kelowna Declining Share 99,599 108,805 117,151 125,762 134,351 150,752 165,464 Rest of Regional District 52.744 65,703 78,072 91,471 105.454 133,811 161,251 Central Okanagan Regional District 152,343 174,508 195.223 217,232 239.815 284,563 326,715 Kelowna's Share 65% 62% 60% 58% 56% 53% 51% Rest of Regional District's share 35% 38% 40% 42% 44% 47% 49% Sceanrio II Kelowna Constant Share 99,599 114,347 128,074 142,597 157,567 187,567 216,177 Rest of Regional District 52,744 60,161 67,148 74,635 82,248 96,896 110,538 Central Okanagan Regional District 152,343 174,508 195,223 217,232 239,815 284,563 326,715 Kelowna's Share 65% 66% 66% 66% 65% 66% 66% Rest of Regional District's share 35% 34% 34% 34% 34% 34% 34% Sceanrio III Kelowna Increasing Share 99,599 117,131 133,648 151.313 169,686 207.000 242,933 Rest of Regional District 52,744 57,377 61,575 65,920 70,13 77,554 83.782 Central Okanagan Regional District C 152,343 174,508 195,223 217,232 239,815 284,563 326,715 Kelowna's Share 65% 67% 68% 70% 71% 73% 74% Rest of Regional District's share 35% 33% 32% 30% 29% 27% 26% These three scenarios for future population in the District imply three corresponding scenarios for the distribution of homes. In Scenario I, with a declining share of regional population (from 65% in 1999 to 50% in 2040), the number of private dwelling units in Kelowna will grow from 41,114 in 1999 to 72,198 by 2040 (Table 2). This 80% increase compares to a 70% increase in population over the same period. As outlined in the previous chapter, the number of dwelling units will grow faster than overall population in Kelowna over this period as a result of high growth rates in the over 45 age groups (the result of the City's baby boom A Framework for Community Change Chapter 5 Page 80 generation aging into the pre-retirement and retirement stages of the lifecycle), and small household sizes (high household maintainer rates mean more dwelling units) in these age groups. Given rapid population growth for the rest of the Regional District under this scenario, its housing stock would grow by 236%, or 46,595 additional units. Table 2: Housing Growth Scenarios, Kelowna and the Central Okanagan Regional District, 1998 to 2040 1999 2005 2010 2015 2020 2030 2040 S c e a n r i o 1 K e l o w n a D e c l i n i n g S h a r e 41.114 45,498 49,395 53,348 57,342 65,232 72,198 R e s t of R e g i o n a l D i s t r i c t 19,739 25,183 30,383 36,000 41,942 54,336 66,335 C e n t r a l O k a n a g a n R e g i o n a l D i s t r i c t 60,854 70,681 79,779 89,348 99,284 119,568 138,533 K e l o w n a ' s S h a r e 68% 64% 62% 60% 58% 55% 52% R e s t of R e g i o n a l D i s t r i c t ' s s h a r e 32% 36% 38% 40% 42% 45% 48% S c e a n r i o II K e l o w n a C o n s t a n t S h a r e 41,114 47,821 54,003 60,478 67,238 81,260 94,469 R e s t of R e g i o n a l D i s t r i c t 19.739 22.860 25.776 28.870 32.046 38,308 44,064 C e n t r a l O k a n a g a n R e g i o n a l D i s t r i c t 60,854 70.681 79,779 89,348 99,284 119,568 138,533 K e l o w n a ' s S h a r e 68% 68% 68% 68% 68% 68% 68% R e s t of R e g i o n a l D i s t r i c t ' s s h a r e 32% 32% 32% 32% 32% 32% 32% S c e a n r i o III K e l o w n a I n c r e a s i n g S h a r e 41,114 48,879 56.145 63,856 71.973 88,944 105,219 R e s t of R e g i o n a l D i s t r i c t 19,739 21,803 23,634 25,492 27,311 30.624 33.314 C e n t r a l O k a n a g a n R e g i o n a l D i s t r i c t 60.854 70,681 79.779 89,348 99.284 119,568 138,533 K e l o w n a ' s S h a r e 68% 69% 70% 71% 72% 74% 76% R e s t of R e g i o n a l D i s t r i c t ' s s h a r e 32% 31% 30% 29% 28% 26% 24% Scenario II (Kelowna having a constant 65% share) woulc result in t ie number of dwelling units in Kelowna growing from 41,114 in 1999 to 94,469 by 2040. The rate of growth in dwellings would once again exceed the growth in population: the number of dwelling units would grow by 133%, while the overall population would grow by 117%. The rest of the Regional District would accommodate 24,325 new dwelling units, as the total dwelling stock outside of the City would grow by 123%. In the third scenario (Kelowna's share increasing to 74%) a large proportion of new dwellings would be accommodated within the City's jurisdiction. In order to accommodate 143,334 new residents, the number of dwelling units in Kelowna would increase from its 1999 base of 41,114 to 105,219 units by 2040, an increase of 156%. Under this scenario the rest of the District would see a net growth of 13,574 dwelling units to accommodate 31,038 new residents between 1999 and 2040. A Framework for Community Change Chapter 5 Page 81 5.2 Kelowna Land Use Change, 1961 to 1996 The issues surrounding how change is accommodated shown in the spatial patterns of land use in the region over the past four decades. Despite a declining share of regional population (the "where") over this period, the city experienced substantial spatial growth over this period (the how). In 1961 the Ci ty o f Kelowna was home to 13,188 people. B y 1996 it had grown to 89,442 residents. Over this 35-year period the city added 76,254 residents, increasing the number of people, homes and jobs by six fold. The way in which this growth was accommodated had a direct impact on the extent of urban development in the region. Map 1 shows the spatial extent of the city o f Kelowna in 1961 In the aerial photo the downtown core is prominent, with the cluster o f larger commercial buildings appearing lighter in colour as a result o f the larger scale o f commercial buildings and the adjoining parking lots situated within the core. The older residential neighbourhoods that A Framework for Community Change Chapter 5 Page 82 surrounded the downtown core are also easily seen, each appearing to be considerably darker than the core, due to clustering of housing units on treed lots. Over the past three decades the most dramatic land use change in the city of Kelowna has been the expansion of residential areas into what were largely agricultural areas that surrounded the urban core in 1961. This period also saw a change in the form of development as housing went from the smaller residential lots on a grid street network to larger suburban lots on winding streets that were considerably removed from the historical core of the city. Map 2 shows that by 1996 although the downtown core had expanded eastward, Highway 97 was established as the major commercial thoroughfare in the City. Considerable commercial land use change along Highway 97 has occurred as offices and stores followed the progression of suburban development. A Framework for Community Change Chapter 5 Page 83 However, it is the residential development that took place between 1961 and 1996 that took on a different form and had a dramatic impact on the physical expanse of the city of Kelowna. Rather than small lot developments on a grid pattern street network, homes were built on large lots, located on winding roads and cul-de-sacs. Residential development went from homes added incrementally as an extension of the existing grid road system, to pockets subdivisions spatially and physically separated from the community's core. The impact of this change in building form can be seen on the 1996 air photo of Kelowna. Look again to the residential areas that surround the downtown core: as a result of smaller lots and higher densities, it is not possible to discern individual dwelling units. Following farther south new residential development and a new street network with larger suburban lots are easily identifiable. In some of these developments it is even possible to identify individual dwelling units as a result of the size of the lots. It has been this low-density residential development that has been the major form in residential land use change in the Kelowna over the past three decades. 5.3 Three Scenarios for the Conversion of Land to Residential Uses There are also scenarios for how change will be accommodated, ranging from new urban developments of large lot single-family dwellings, to more compact communities with a greater diversity of housing types within the already developed areas of the region. Within this range, three building format scenarios are considered in the framework. The first scenario is accommodating additional single-detached housing on new greenfield large lot suburban developments where each dwelling unit is situated on approximately 91 by 110 foot lots. This form of housing averages a net density of about 3.25 units per acre which includes allowances for local roads and parks. Other ground-oriented dwelling units under this scenario take the form of duplexes or row houses which average approximately 10 units per acre, while apartment units are built at approximately 35 units per acre. Given that these are the predominant forms that development has taken over the past two decades, this scenario referred to as a "traditional development" building format. The second scenario is to build in a slightly more compact format where single-detached lot sizes averaged 6.5 units per acre, on 60 by 110 foot lots. Other ground-oriented units and apartment units are developed at the same density as in the previous scenario. This scenario is referred to as a "moderate suburban development" building format. The third scenario accommodates additional single-detached homes at an average of 9 units per acre (on the 33 by 110 foot lots that are common in the older suburbs). The density of A Framework for Community Change Chapter 5 Page 84 other ground-oriented units such as duplexes and row houses is also increased to 15 units per acre, while apartment units remain at 35 units per acre. In addition to the more compact nature of this scenario, a third of total additional development is accommodated on infill sites in existing urban areas where services such as roads and sewers already exist. This is a "compact suburban development and infill" building format. 5.3.1 Land Use Change in the Central Okanagan Regional District, 1999 to 2040 Given the three future scenarios for where people will situate within the Regional District, and the three alternatives for how they can be accommodated, there are nine combinations for accommodating change that can be evaluated using the framework. These alternatives would require from a high of 20,6460 acres of land to be converted to residential uses under the traditional development model to a low of 10,740 acres to be converted under the compact suburban development and infill (Table 3). Between 16,240 (Kelowna's share increasing and traditional development) and 4,162 (Kelowna's share declining and compact development and infill) acres of this land use change will occur within the city of Kelowna. In 1999 the city reported that 7,536 acres of land were available within its jurisdiction that were vacant and potentially developable for residential and associated uses. Given that Kelowna's already developed area in 1999 (not including A L R , hillsides or vacant developable land) was an estimated 14,000 acres, the spatial extent of residential development of the city could more than double over the coming decades depending on the format that future residential development takes. In the case of the city's share of future growth increasing and traditional development, 8,704 acres of land beyond its current urban reserve would have to be found. At this point the framework shows that the least amount of land will need to be converted to residential uses if development occurs in compact forms. Although reductions are seen between the scenarios for how development can be accommodated, at the regional level land consumption remains constant for all three spatial options. The next component of the framework considers the range of costs associated with these different choices of where and how to accommodate future change. A Framework for Community Change Chapter 5 Page 85 Table 3: Cumulative Land Conversion Scenarios, Kelowna and the Central Okanagan Regional District, 1998 to 2040 1999 2005 2010 2015 Cumulative Land Conversion, Central Okanagan Regional District Total 2020 Total to 2030 2040 Traditional Development 400 2,991 5,402 7,976 10,627 15,860 20,04* Moderate Suburban Development 255 1,914 3,458 5,095 6,782 10,144 13,246 Compact Suburban Development and Infill 206 1,548 2,795 4,116 5,480 8,211 10,735 Cumulative Land Conversion, Kelowna Traditional Development 252 1,888 3,408 5,027 6,698 6,124 7,730 Moderate Suburban Development 165 866 1,494 2,137 2,780 4,012 5,083 Compact Suburban Development and Infill 134 707 1,219 1,743 2,268 3,280 Cumulative Land Conversion, Outside Kelowna Traditional Development 148 1,103 1,994 2,949 3,929 9,737 12,914 Moderate Suburban Development 90 1,048 1,964 2,958 4,002 6,132 8,164 Compact Suburban Development and Infill 72 841 1,576 2,373 3,213 4,931 6,573 Cumulative Land Conversion, Kelowna Traditional Development 252 1,888 3,408 6,040 6,698 10,017 13,064 Moderate Suburban Development 165 1,237 2,234 3,287 4,375 6,564 8,595 Compact Suburban Development and Infill 134 1,011 1,823 2,681 3,569 5,368 7,040 Cumulative Land Conversion, Outside Kelowna Traditional Development 148 1,103 1,994 1,936 3,929 5,843 7,581 Moderate Suburban Development 90 676 1,224 1,808 2,407 3,580 4,651 Compact Suburban Development and Infill 72 537 972 1,436 1,911 2,844 3,696 Cumulative Land Conversion, Kelowna Traditional Development 252 2,206 4,050 6,040 8,117 12,307 16.240 Moderate Suburban Development 165 1,436 2,636 3,920 5,262 7,997 10,588 Compact Suburban Development and Infill 134 1,168 2,141 3,182 4,272 6,503 8,620 Cumulative Land Conversion, Outside Kelowna Traditional Development 148 785 1,352 1,936 2,510 3,553 4,405 Moderate Suburban Development 90 477 822 1,174 1,520 2,147 2,658 Compact Suburban Development and Infill 72 380 654 934 1,209 1,708 2,115 Kelowna Increasing Share Constant Shares Kelowna Declining Share 5.4 The Direct Costs of Accommodating Change The costs of change will be essentially determined by what format future residential development takes and by where in the region it occurs. The direct costs of development are generally divided into on and off- site costs. On-site costs include costs incurred within the boundaries of the subdivision (such as clearing and grading, landscaping, roads, sewers or water and electricity provisions). Off-site infrastructure costs are those related to new development but are outside its boundaries (such as regional roads, waste treatment plants and schools). The cost A Framework for Community Change Chapter 5 Page 86 of construction of individual dwellings could be considered in this component of the framework. However, as the focus is on land use planning, the direct costs of on and off-site requirements are considered rather than the cost of dwelling unit construction. 5.4.1 On-Site Infrastructure Requirements A portion the cost of all on-site infrastructure can be attributed to each dwelling unit: in terms of on-site costs each development is the sum of its pieces, with each additional dwelling unit added to the plan requiring a little more road, pipe and sidewalk to be added. The size of each lot that makes up the development will directly determine the number of acres to be cleared and leveled, the amount of road that will need to be paved, the quantity of concrete poured for curbs and gutters and the amount of sidewalk to be built. Tables 4, 5 and 6 show the site requirements for the three building formats outlined in Section 5.1, the traditional, moderate and compact with infill. In each case, the site requirements and cost figures are estimates determined by synthesizing data gathered formally and informally from a number of sources. They do not represent those of any one specific development. As is considered in greater detail later, there is little in the way of available cost data with respect to land use change, whether for the Central Okanagan Regional District or in general. As such, these data must be considered as indicators rather than definitive values. Table 4: Site Requirements for Traditional Development Total Units 74 Average Lot Size 91 by 110 feet Liner Additions Total Road Pavement (per dwelling unit) (Square Feet) 2,478 Curbs and Gutters (Linear Feet) 70 Street Trees (LF) 38 Grading/ Streets and Right of Ways (SF) 2,384 Street Excavation (SF) 2,478 Fine Grading (SF) 1,599 Driveways (SF) 527 Sidewalks (LF) 45 Storm Sewers (LF) 22 Water Distribution (LF) 46 Sanitary Sewer (LF) 59 Electrical/gas (LF) 46 Clearing and Levelling Area Costs (SF) 8,670 A Framework for Community Change Chapter S Page 87 In order to calculate the site requirements for a traditional development using a Central Okanagan example, a subdivision plan for a 20-acre site that was developed for residential dwelling units Westbank in 1994 was used as a starting point. This development was comprised of 74 single-detached homes and two park site, roads sidewalks and other infrastructure. Each new dwelling unit in this development required an average of 10,000 square feet of land for its lot plus 2,478 square feet of road pavement to be laid, 70 linear feet of curbs and gutters poured, 38 linear feet of street trees planted, 45 linear feet of sidewalks put down, 81 linear feet of storm and sanitary sewer joined and 46 feet of electrical lines and gas pipes buried. Of the total site area of 889,553 square feet, approximately 648,219 square feet (73%) was cleared for building, giving a per dwelling unit area for clearing of 8,760 square feet. The remaining 241,334 square feet of the site was left for community and park space (Table 4). Table 5: Site Requirements for Moderate Suburban Development Total Units 74 Average Lot Size 60 by 110 feet Liner Additions Total Road Pavement (per dwelling unit) (Square Feet) 2,026 Curbs and Gutters (Linear Feet) 57 Street Trees (LF) 31 Grading/ Streets and Right of Ways (SF) 1,950 Street Excavation (SF) 2,026 Fine Grading (SF) 1,307 Driveways (SF) 466 Sidewalks (LF) 37 Storm Sewers (LF) 18 Water Distribution (LF) 38 Sanitary Sewer (LF) 49 Electrical/gas (LF) 38 Clearing and Levelling Area Costs (SF) 7,351 If the same number of dwelling units were built in moderate suburban development format, economies of scale for infrastructure and servicing would be seen: pipes and roads be extended past narrower lots, reducing the overall amount of infrastructure required for the same number of dwelling units. Table 5 outlines the associated site requirement for moderate suburban development; the same number of dwelling units built on an average of 66 by 110 foot lots would require 7,320 square feet for each lot and 2,026 square feet of road pavement, 57 linear feet of curbs and gutters, 31 linear feet of street trees, 37 linear feet of sidewalks, 67 linear feet of storm and sanitary sewer and 38 feet of electrical lines and gas pipes. Of the total site area of A Framework for Community Change Chapter 5 Page 88 889,553 square feet, approximately 61% (543,943 square feet) would have to be cleared and leveled for building, giving a per dwelling unit area for clearing and leveling of 7,350 square feet. Given the relationship between lot size and infrastructure requirements, similar reductions are seen if the average lot size for single-detached units are reduced further. If each single-detached unit were built on lots that averaged approximately 33 by 110 feet the total residential area would be reduced to 54% over the traditional model and 45% over compact development. Table 6 shows the associated site requirements for a compact suburban development. On a per dwelling unit basis, constructing 74 new single-detached units on greenfield sites would require lots of 3,630 square feet plus 1,741 square feet of road pavement, 49 linear feet of curbs and gutters, 26 linear feet of street trees, 32 linear feet of sidewalks, 58 linear feet of storm and sanitary sewer and 32 feet of electrical lines and gas pipes. Of the total site area of 889,553 square feet, approximately 34% (299,169 square feet) would be cleared and leveled for building, giving a per dwelling unit area of 4,043 square feet. In the compact suburban with infill format, small lot new development is combined with increasing the density in existing urban communities; approximately one third of future development under this scenario is accommodated as infdl in existing neighbourhoods. For this scenario it is assumed that the infdl portion of development occurs on sites where infrastructure already exist. Table 6: Site Requirements for a Compact Suburban and Infill Total Units 74 Average Lot Size 33 by 110 feet Liner Additions Total Road Pavement (per dwelling unit) (Square Feet) 1,741 Curbs and Gutters (Linear Feet) 49 Street Trees (LF) 26 Grading/ Streets and Right of Ways (SF) 1,675 Street Excavation (SF) 1,741 Fine Grading (SF) 1,123 Driveways (SF) 466 Sidewalks (LF) 32 Storm Sewers (LF) 16 Water Distribution (LF) 32 Sanitary Sewer (LF) 42 Electrical/gas (LF) 32 Clearing and Levelling Area Costs (SF) 4,043 Calculating site requirements in this manner makes two assumptions about future development. First that is occurs in a successive fashion with each development added to the A Framework for Community Change Chapter 5 Page 89 edge of the previous. Second, as densities increase, individual lots are also added successively and not constructed in small pockets over larger sites. This is important, as units added in pockets of development throughout a site will still require all infrastructure and services to be run by these open spaces to accommodate all dwellings; any savings incurred due to higher densities could potentially be negated by the costs of building infrastructure through open areas. 5.4.2 Per Unit Infrastructure Costs Just as the infrastructure site requirements can be accounted for on a per dwelling unit basis, so too can the linear and areas costs of adding these services. Given that the square or linear footage costs of these service does not vary with additional dwellings or change the overall density of a site, each of these costs remain the same for the range of ground-oriented dwelling formats considered here. Within such a range, per dwelling unit on-site infrastructure costs do not grow as densities increase. Within the range of densities considered here, the cost for excavating trenches is essentially the same regardless of the pipe diameter, as the same digging machine is used and the same amount of time is needed to excavate it. Further, in order to double the capacity (a 100% increase) of a pipe, the radius need only to grow by 40%). To double the area of a section of pipe from 5 to 10 square centimeters (a 100%) increase in its capacity), the circumference of the pipe would only need to increase by 40%) from 8 cm to 11 cm. As the cost of the pipe is a function of its surface area (and the total amount of material needed to construct it), the incremental cost of a larger pipe in relation to the increased number of residents it will service is negligible on a per dwelling unit basis. a. On-site development costs Table 7 shows the estimated per dwelling unit costs for infrastructure requirements outlined in the previous section. It must be emphasized that these costs wil l vary with the topography or geology of sites; the costs used here represent an average for relatively flat sites, and that they are best estimates that could be obtained from the public and private sectors. On a per dwelling unit basis, the cost of grading and paving roads in a new development is $1.78 per square foot, $30.61 per linear foot to pour the curbs and gutters and sidewalks, $21.67 per linear foot to plant street trees, $110.67 to lay the pipes for water and sewer and $55.08 per linear foot to provide electric and gas services. A Framework for Community Change Chapter 5 Page 90 Table 7: Cost Requirements, Residential Development Liner Costs Total Road Pavement (per dwelling unit) (Square Feet) $1.35 Curbs and Gutters (Linear Feet) $19.78 Street Trees (LF) $21.67 Grading/ Streets and Right of Ways (SF) $0.30 Street Excavation (SF) $0.19 Fine Grading (SF) $0.24 Driveways (SF) $2.71 Sidewalks (LF) $10.84 Storm Sewers (LF) $55.08 Water Distribution (LF) $25.06 Sanitary Sewer (LF) $30.53 Electrical/gas (LF) $55.08 Clearing and Levelling Area Costs (SF) $4,589.33 Combining these costs and infrastructure requirements outlined in the previous section gives a total per dwelling unit on-site development cost of $16,700 for traditional development, $13,700 for moderate suburban development and $11,700 for compact and infill development. b. Off-site development costs The off site costs associated with connecting these residents with the rest of the region must also be accounted for in the evaluation framework. Off-site expenditures include arterial and access roads, provisions for water, sewers, sewage treatment, drainage and open space. Some of these off-site costs are direct costs of development paid for in levies on developers by local planning authorities in the form of Development Cost Charges (DCCs). The funds raised by DCC's are to be used by local authorities to provide additional off-site services necessitated by the addition of new development. On a per dwelling unit basis these costs only discriminate between two general housing forms, ground-oriented and multi-family units (which are considered apartment accommodation). The current DCCs for building a new single-family dwelling unit in Kelowna is approximately $11,150 per dwelling unit. As greater economies of scale occur with apartment units, DCCs are reduced by 19% to $9,080 per dwelling unit for apartments. The total per dwelling unit cost of providing the on and off-site infrastructure and servicing for traditional development is $27,812, for moderate suburban development total costs decline to $24,887, and further for compact development and infdl to $22,899. A Framework for Community Change 5.4.3 The Cost of land Chapter 5 Page 91 The direct costs described thus far are a function of building format (the how) and do not vary with location (except in the case where costs may change due to geology or topography). The final direct cost to be considered is the price of land, which varies as a function of location (the where): the farther away from the urban core, the lower the price of land as the costs of accessibility grow1. In order to provide an estimate for the land prices inside and outside the city of Kelowna, land prices were taken from the Multiple Listing Service (MLS). For inside Kelowna, asking prices for larger lots, ranging from 10,000 square feet to two acres, were taken to find a representative selling price for an acre of land in the currently urbanized portion of the region: the resulting estimate was $125,000 per acre. Looking outside of the city to areas such as Ellison, Rutland and North Glenmore, the estimated price for an acre of land was in the $55,000 range, 56% lower than within Kelowna. 5.5 Costs of development in the City of Kelowna, 1999 to 2040 In order to calculate the total direct costs of development the per dwelling unit on-site costs for each dwelling format are multiplied by the projected additions to the housing stock between 1999 and 2040. The average market cost per acre of land for areas inside and outside the city are added for each dwelling unit, while the development cost charges are included for the single and multi family units built in Kelowna (there are no DCCs outside of Kelowna). Given the nine possible policy alternatives for how and where change can be accommodated, the result is a range of projected costs of accommodating change in the Regional District and the city over the coming four decades. Table 8 summaries the additional number of dwelling units, total acres of land converted to residential uses and the total present value cost of new development (including on-site infrastructure, off-site DCCs and land costs) for each of the three building formats and the three growth sharing scenarios for the Kelowna 2. A Framework for Community Change Chapter 5 Page 92 Table 8: Present Value of Land and Infrastructure Costs, Kelowna, 1999 to 2040 Traditional Development Moderate Compact Suburban Suburban Development Development and Infill Population Scenario I—Kelowna Declining Share Additional Dwellings 31,084 31,084 31,084 Additional Land Converted (acres) 7,730 5,083 4,162 Servicing Costs $ 668,838,355 $ 505,336,047 $ 441,343,924 Population Scenario II— Kelowna Constant Share Additional Dwellings 53,355 53,355 53,355 Additional Land Converted (acres) 13,064 8,595 7,040 Servicing Costs $ 1,069,731,916 $ 808,371,259 $ 706,060,506 Population Scenario III— Kelowna Increasing Share Additional Dwellings 64,105 64,105 64,105 Additional Land Converted (acres) 16,240 10,588 8,620 Servicing Costs $ 1,312,509,920 $ 988,807,399 $ 862,084,978 a. Population Scenario I: Kelowna's Declining Share of Regional Population Under a scenario where Kelowna continues to have a declining share of the District's population, the city would add approximately 65,865 people and 31,084 dwelling units between 1999 and 2040. If additional single-detached residential units were built in traditional development formats an additional 7,730 acres of land within the city's boundaries would be required to accommodate the 31,084 new dwelling units. This is 194 acres more than is currently available as part of the city's urban reserve of 7,536 acres. The present value of the cost of land and new local and regional roads, sewers, sidewalks and other infrastructure for these new dwelling units would be $669 million dollars1. If the moderate suburban development model were built the amount of land and infrastructure required for these new housing units would be 5,083 acres of land, and infrastructure costs of $505 million. Under the compact suburban development and infill model, the City could accommodate its (declining) share of the Region's growth and keep 45% of the existing urban reserve for future residential development or other land uses. Development would require 4,162 acres of land to be converted for residential uses, with an associated cost for new infrastructure and servicing of $441 million. Given this scenario's declining share of growth for the city over the coming four decades, the total land and infrastructure requirements for future residential development would be reduced by 2,650 acres and $164 million if the moderate suburban model is built rather than in traditional 1 All costs represent a net present value calculated at an effective rate of 5% per annum A Framework for Community Change Chapter 5 Page 93 development formats. 3,570 acres and $228 million less would need to be spent i f the compact suburban model and infill is followed over building traditional development, and 921 acres of land and $64 million over only building at densities for moderate suburban development. b. Population Scenario II: Kelowna's Constant Share of Regional Population A scenario where Kelowna holds its current (65%) share of the Region's population would result in there being 116,587 more people living in 53,355 more dwelling units in the city by 2040. Accommodating the new dwellings in Kelowna according to the traditional development models would require a present value of $1.26 billion in capital expenditures and 13,064 additional acres of land for development in Kelowna. With future development built according to the moderate suburban development, the total land required to accommodate future housing demand in the city of Kelowna would be 8,595 acres, 1,059 more than is currently available within the city's urban reserve. A total of $972 million would be required to acquire land and service the development. If development in Kelowna followed the compact suburban development and infill model, 7,040 of the 7,542 acres (93%) of land currently suitable for new residential development would be converted to urban uses. This would result in approximately $850 million to be spent on infrastructure and servicing for the 53,355 dwelling units. In pursuing a moderate suburban form for future development, $290 million less in capital expenditures would be needed to be spent over traditional development forms; over 4,400 fewer acres of land would need be converted to residential uses. Increasing residential densities to the compact suburban development and infdl model would reduce capital expenditures further to $850 million, $412 million lower than what would be required for traditional development, and $122 million lower than if these dwelling units were added at moderate suburban development densities. Total land savings for the compact suburban development and infill is 6,000 acres over traditional development and 1,555 acres over moderate suburban development. c. Population Scenario III: Kelowna's Increasing Share of Regional Population The final scenarios are for Kelowna's share of regional population to increase, resulting in population growth of 143,300 new residents and 64,100 new homes. If these additional residential units were constructed in traditional development formats, 16,240 acres of land would be converted to urban uses to accommodate the additional dwelling units. The associated cost of providing infrastructure and services for these new dwelling units would be $1.52 billion dollars. A Framework for Community Change Chapter 5 Page 94 If additional dwelling units were constructed according to the moderate suburban development model, additional land required for residential development in Kelowna would be 10,588 acres, with capital expenditures of $1.16 billion for new roads, sewers, sidewalks and other services associated with these new developments. With an increasing share of regional growth, the compact suburban development and infill approach to development would be the only scenario that would come close to accommodating future development in Kelowna's current urban reserve. A total of 8,620 acres of land would be needed to accommodate future growth, just over 1,000 acres more than the city's urban reserve. Approximately $1.01 billion would be spent for infrastructure and servicing. d. Summary Given the range of options for future development in the city of Kelowna, accommodating between 31,084 and 64,105 dwelling units would require between 4,126 and 16,240 acres of land to be converted to urban uses for development over the next four decades. Given the alternatives for where and how future development occurs, the potential exists to incur between $441 million and $1.31 billion for future infrastructure and servicing. Depending on the city's future share of development, between 45% and 80% of the total expenditures for building and servicing infrastructure for new development in the Regional District will occur in the city of Kelowna. The least expensive alternative in terms of land and infrastructure requirements would be for the city to accommodate the smallest proportion of development possible under a compact suburban development with infill where land and infrastructure requirements are minimized. This would, however, merely shift the costs (in terms of infrastructure and land resources) to outside Kelowna. 5.6 Costs of development outside the City of Kelowna, 1999 to 2040 At the Regional District level, the share of growth not accommodated in Kelowna will be accommodated in the other cities, communities and unincorporated areas throughout the rest of the Regional District. Table 9 shows the impact on housing, land uses and infrastructure and servicing costs for the area outside of Kelowna given the nine policy alternatives for where and how change is accommodated. A Framework for Community Change Chapter 5 Page 95 Table 9: Present Value of Land and Infrastructure Costs, Outside the City of Kelowna, 1999 to 2040 Traditional Development Moderate Suburban Development Compact Suburban Development and Infill Population Scenario I—Outside Kelowna Increasing Share Additional Dwellings 46,595 46,595 46,595 Additional Land Converted (acres) 12,914 8,164 6,573 Additional Servicing Costs $ 684,997,977 $ 546,655,694 $ 488,179,815 Population Scenario II— Constant Shares Additional Dwellings 24,325 24,325 24,325 Additional Land Converted (acres) 7,581 4,651 3,696 Additional Servicing Costs $ 422,472,834 $ 334,423,617 $ 297,723,775 Population Scenario III— Outside Kelowna Declining Share Additional Dwellings 13,574 13,574 13,574 Additional Land Converted (acres) 4,405 2,658 2,115 Additional Servicing Costs $ 260,778,213 $ 204,768,812 $ 181,941,800 a. Population Scenario I: Increasing Share of Regional Population Outside Kelowna A scenario where the region outside the city of Kelowna continues to increase its share of regional population would mean areas throughout the rest of the district would grow by approximately 108,500 people and 46,595 dwelling units between 1999 and 2040 (Table 9). If the traditional development model were followed, an additional 12,914 acres of land would be needed to accommodate future residential development. The total cost of land and providing new on and off-site infrastructure would be approximately $685 million dollars. Accommodating additional single-detached capacity at moderate suburban densities would result in 8,164 additional acres of land for residential uses, with related costs of $547 million. Higher residential densities in the compact suburban development and infill would result land requirements for new residential development of 6,573 acres. This form of development would result in a present value of capital expenditures of $488 million. Therefore, given an increasing share of population, moving from a traditional to moderate suburban development would result in 4,750 fewer acres of land and $138 million less in capital expenditures outside the city of Kelowna. By reducing the size of new residential lots to the compact suburban model and infill, the total amount of land needed for development would be reduced by 6,341 acres and associated infrastructure by $197 million dollars over the traditional development and 1,590 acres and $59 million over building at moderate suburban densities. A Framework for Community Change Chapter 5 Page 96 b. Population Scenario II: Constant Shares of Regional Population A scenario where Kelowna and the rest of the Regional District hold constant shares of future development would see 58,900 additional people living outside Kelowna in 24,325 more dwelling units by 2040. Accommodating these new dwellings following the traditional development model would require 7,581 acres of land to be converted for residential development, and $448 million in capital expenditures. Building additional single-detached capacity in moderate suburban development patterns outside Kelowna would see 4,651 acres of land needed for residential uses, with development costs of $354 million. The compact suburban development and infill strategy for future development would see 3,696 acres of land throughout the rest of the Regional District converted to residential uses, and capital costs of $312 million. Pursuing a moderate suburban model for all future residential development outside the city of Kelowna rather than traditional development would see $94 million less in capital expenditures and 2,929 fewer acres of land converted residential development. Increasing the densities further with the compact suburban development and infdl would reduce capital expenditures to $312 million, $136 million less than required by traditional development, and $42 million lower than a moderate suburban model. The land needed for compact suburban development and infdl would be 3,696 acres, 3,885 and 956 acres less than required by the traditional and moderate development models respectively. c. Population Scenario III: Outside Kelowna's Declining Share of Regional Population If Kelowna were to have an increasing share of population, 34,300 new residents and 13,574 additional dwelling units would be built throughout the rest of the Regional District. If additional single-detached suburbs developed as they have in the past, the traditional development model would require 4,405 acres of land and would account for $276 million in capital expenditures. Accommodating new single-detached dwellings on smaller lots according to the moderate suburban development would see additional land needed for residential use fall to 2,658 acres, and the associated present value of capital costs reduced to $217 million. If residential densities were increased to the compact suburban model and infill, future requirements for residential development would be reduced to 2,115 acres of land and $192 million for the associated roads, pipes, wires and sewers. A Framework for Community Change Chapter 5 Page 97 As shown in the other spatial location scenarios, the land and infrastructure requirements decline as the density of future development increases. Building at moderate suburban development would result in $59 million less in capital expenditures and 1,720 fewer acres of land needed for residential uses over building at traditional development densities. Increasing the compactness of development further to the compact suburban model and infill would reduce land and infrastructure requirements to by $85 million over building traditional development, and $25 million lower than constructing a moderate suburban development. The land requirements would be reduced by 2,290 and 543 over the traditional and moderate density models. d. Summary Depending on policies at the Regional and City levels, the potential exists for between 13,600 and 46,600 new dwelling units to be constructed in the townships and unincorporated areas outside the city of Kelowna. Accommodating these dwelling units would require between 12,914 and 4,405 acres of land to be converted for new residential development if it were to occur in traditional development formats. The associated capital costs for building infrastructure to service these new developments would range between $276 and $685 million. If the region outside of Kelowna built according to the compact urban development and infill, land requirements would be reduced by between 2,300 and 6,300 acres (a possible 50% reduction in the amount of land converted to residential uses). Moving from traditional development to compact development and infill would result in expenditures for infrastructure and servicing declining by 30%, with between $85 and $187 million less spent for roads, curbs and sewers. 5.7 Costs of Development in the Central Okanagan Regional District 1999 to 2040 With the core of the framework focusing on the Central Okanagan Regional District, the population and dwelling units projections are constant at the regional level regardless of future shares of development. Although the aggregates of these two components of the framework are constant, the how and where of future change are not. The where will be reflected in differences in land prices within and outside of the city, and the how will be seen in the total costs for extending new infrastructure and servicing to future development. Table 10 shows the total projected number of dwelling units between 1999 and 2040 and the associated land and cost requirements for the Central Okanagan Regional District. A Framework for Community Change Chapter 5 Page 98 Table 10: Present Value of Land and Infrastructure Costs, Central Okanagan Regional District, 1999 to 2040 Traditional Development Moderate Suburban Development Compact Suburban Development and Infill Population Scenario I—Kelowna Declining Share Additional Dwellings 77,679 77,679 77,679 Additional Land Converted (acres) 20,645 13,246 10,735 Servicing Costs $ 1,353,836,332 $ 1,051,991,741 $ 929,523,739 Population Scenario II— Kelowna Constant Share Servicing Costs $ 1,492,204,750 $ 1,142,794,876 $ 1,003,784,280 Population Scenario III— Kelowna Increasing Share Servicing Costs $ 1,573,288,133 $ 1,193,576,211 $ 1,044,026,777 a. Population Scenario I: Kelowna's Declining Share of Regional Population With the city of Kelowna having a declining share of future growth, accommodating the projected 77,679 new dwelling units in the Regional District according to traditional development formats would require the conversion over 20,645 acres of land to residential uses between 1999 and 2040. The present value of capital expenditures required for these new developments would be over $1.35 billion dollars (Table 10). If the Regional District were to seek alternative forms for future development patterns, the total land required for future development would be 13,246 acres. In addition to a reduction in land needed for new residential capacity, the moderate suburban development model would see the cost of infrastructure and servicing decline to $1.05 billion. Compact suburban development and infill would require 10,735 acres of land to be converted to residential uses, with $930 million to finance building these new development between 1999 and 2040. Moving towards a moderate suburban development model of future residential development would result in 7,399 fewer acres of land and $302 million less in capital expenditures. A compact suburban development and infill model would see the amount of land converted to residential uses decline to 10,735 acres over the coming four decades, 48% less (9,910 fewer acres) than traditional suburban development, and almost 20% lower (2,511 acres) than only building at moderate suburban development densities. The associated capital savings would be $424 million over traditional development formats and $122 million over moderate suburban development alone. A Framework for Community Change Chapter 5 Page 99 b. Population Scenario II: Kelowna's Constant Share of Regional Population Over the coming four decades if regional shares of population were to remain constant, and future development were to take the forms that have predominated over the past two decades, a total of $ 1.71 billion would be spent for 77,679 dwelling units. Traditional development would result in 20,645 acres of land converted to residential uses. Constant regional shares would result in 74% of these costs ($1.26 billion) occurring within Kelowna and the remaining 26% ($448 million) throughout the rest of the Regional District. If moderate suburban development densities were pursued for new development throughout the Regional District, the present value capital cost of new residential development would decline to $1.34 billion over the next fourty years. Building compact suburban development and infill would see these costs decline to $ 1.16 billion to accommodate the same number of people and dwelling units. c. Population Scenario III: Kelowna's Increasing Share of Regional Population At the regional level i f Kelowna were to have an increasing share of development, accommodating residential development in traditional development would require $1.79 billion in capital costs. As indicated earlier, increasing Kelowna's share results in greater development costs as a result of the price of land within the city's jurisdiction. Given the role land prices play in the cost of development, accommodating future development in moderate suburban development densities would result in the present value costs of $1.38 billion dollars between 1999 and 2040. Building at compact suburban development and infill densities would reduce these expenditures to $1.20 billion. d. Summary Overall reductions in infrastructure and servicing costs are the result of building additional residential capacity at incrementally higher densities. In doing so there is a twofold impact on costs; that of less money initially spent on land (as less is needed) and per unit infrastructure requirements declining with increasing density. The framework leads to the conclusion that how and where development is accommodated is a reflection of land and infrastructure costs. Although seemingly intuitive, this leads to two interesting insights. First, compact suburban development and infdl is the least expensive alternative as it requires fewer acres of land and lower per unit infrastructure costs. A Framework for Community Change Chapter 5 Page 100 Second, development outside the city is least expensive in terms of development costs as a result of cheaper land outside the urbanized portion of the region; the least expensive format for development to occur in is compact development. Although policy, namely the regulation of minimum lot sizes, has limited the development of compact residential communities in these areas, the framework gives a good representation of why development has traditionally occurred in successively lower density rings around urban regions. While compact development in suburban locations may be the least expensive alternative to development, few planners would agree that it is the most desirable location for development. The reason for the difference in perception is that the lower development cost of distant locations only account for direct development costs: the current structure of DCC's do not fully account for all the indirect external and other opportunity costs of land that new development creates. 5.8 External Costs of Development The costs of development considered thus far in this chapter are direct and private costs incurred by the developer of residential lots, including the public off-site costs paid for in the Development Cost Charges levied by the City. Development Cost Charges are intended to bridge the gap between private on-site costs (such as local roads and sewers) and off-site costs (such as regional roads, waste treatment plants or schools) of new development. However, Development Cost Charges do not fully account for all the external costs that result from development that occurs at significant distances from existing services. Some of these external costs are visible and can be accounted for, such as the costs widening and extension of new arterial roadways, the extension and upgrading of waste treatment facilities or the twinning of the bridge across Okanagan Lake. Excluding these costs from the cost of development is the reason why a) people are willing to move to less expensive housing in new suburbs and commute longer distances and b) why new housing development has taken the shape it has over the past two decades. Land and housing is "cheaper" in these removed locations as an input to development as a result of the homeowner and general tax revenues carrying a greater burden of the operating expenses, such as increased travel time and roadway associated with more removed suburban locations. Each of the costs included to this point can be seen as "visible", or hard costs, in terms of being able to account for the money spent on pipe to extended sewer and water to new homes, or the capital expense of widening the bridge for more commuters. In addition to these costs there are other difficult to measure or "non-cash register" costs associated with different forms and locations of development. Such costs would include air and water pollution associated with A Framework for Community Change Chapter 5 Page 101 longer commuting times from distant suburbs, the opportunity cost of tax dollars diverted away for alternative uses and the long term depletion of fossil fuel resources. Fully accounting for external development costs would involve including in development charges the present value of all external visible and non-visible costs incurred as a result of choices over the location and format of future urban development. It would require many more volumes of research to identify and measure all of the external costs that result from location and format of urban development, something that is beyond the scope of this report. However, the framework presented here can be used to demonstrate the magnitude of the external costs that would be necessary to offset the locational advantages of "cheap" land in suburban locations. Given the cost assumptions and the current structure to Development Cost Charges'in Kelowna, this is the point at which the marginal benefit of development in suburban versus urban locations is reduced to zero. This occurs when the external costs of suburban locations is increased by $70,000 per acre of land. Within the framework, this external cost would exactly offset the price gradient of land as you move from urban ($125,000 per acre) to rural ($55,000) locations. At this point the developer and purchaser would become indifferent between urban and suburban locations as the cost of similar dwelling units would be the same. At a net density of 6.5 units per acre (the moderate suburban model) this represent additional external costs of $10,700 per dwelling unit. As there are other users that compete for use of the rural land, the external costs imposed not have to rise to $70,000. For example, i f it were possible to generate a present value of $20,000 per acre of land from agricultural uses, the external costs would only have to offset the potential revenue generated by the next best use. This is represented by the difference between the selling price of land and the revenue stream generated by it or $35,000. At this point the developer and purchaser are indifferent between urban and suburban locations. At a net density of 6.5 units per acre this represents an external costs of $5,300 per dwelling unit. 5.9 The Opportunity Cost of Land The opportunity cost of land is reflected in the value of alternative uses of land foregone by converting it to a specific use. Although the framework cannot determine the value of land, it can illustrate the impacts of changing views about valuation of urban and rural land resources. As a departure point, an urban example of the opportunity cost of land will be used. Opened in June of 1983, BC Place stadium currently sits on roughly 20 acres of land near the heart of Downtown Vancouver. After all maintenance, servicing and staffing costs are accounted for, the stadium generates an estimated annual profit of $ 100,000 from events such as A Framework for Community Change Chapter 5 Page 102 football games, Kiss concerts and the home show. Given a net revenue of $100,000 generated by the stadium, if an investor seeking a 10% per year return on their investment wanted to buy stadium and its present operations they would be willing to pay approximately $1 million dollars for the structure in its present operation3. Given current land prices for vacant residential land in the area surrounding the site, implies a redevelopment value estimated to be between $70 and $100 million dollars. Some would argue that the difference between the value of the stadium in its current use and its opportunity cost as a residential site is accounted for in intangible benefits, such as regional tourism revenue or as a landmark for the city. The question that needs to be asked is whether these intangible benefits gained from having the stadium are equal to what could be done with the site, the direct $69 to $99 million dollars that could be realized from its redevelopment, and the indirect benefits of that development not occurring on the fringe of urban areas. In a land use context questions concerning the value of land are between using land in existing urban uses more intensively, and converting previously non-urban land to residential uses where new infrastructure needs to be constructed. Does today's price in a private transaction adequately reflect the value of this land to society? One way to frame this relationship is to again look at the total costs (hard and soft), the value and the associated benefits of different forms of development. Given the BC Place example, i f a starting point for the social value of land is represented by the current market value of land (adding an additional $125,000 per acre to the cost equation), the full cost of building future development would increase by over one billion dollars to $2.40 billion under a traditional development scenario where Kelowna sees an increasing share of future development. If the full external costs discussed in the previous section are added, the full cost of future development would increase to $2.75 billion dollars over the coming four decades. 5.10 Conclusions Values, costs and prices must each be measured in order to account for the full external and internal costs of development. Although this framework cannot fully account for all economic, social and environmental costs, it can illustrate the implications of an alternative set of values on the costs of future development in the Central Okanagan over the coming four decades: accommodating an additional 174,000 new residents in traditional development formats would result in the conversion of over 20,000 acres of land and an associated $1.35 billion in capital expenses for infrastructure and servicing. Building compact suburban development where one third of residential units are added in existing service areas would be reduce the amount of land A Framework for Community Change Chapter 5 Page 103 needed by half to 10,000 acres, with capital expenditures falling to $1.20 billion, one third incurred by traditional development. Accounting for the external costs of development and the opportunity cost of land would double the future costs of development to $2.75 billion dollars. This component of the framework underscores two aspects of land use planning. First that, once again, it is not aggregate notions of "growth", but how and where we accommodate future development that will shape our urban and urbanizing regions. Secondly that adequate information about the internal and external costs associated with development are not currently available and, more importantly, that decisions about the location, density and timing of development are currently being made without sufficient information about their future implications. In these senses change management will lead to an overall change in management. Endnotes 1 J o n e s K e n , S i m m o n s J i m , L o c a t i o n L o c a t i o n L o c a t i o n ; I n t e r n a t i o n a l T h o m p s o n P u b l i s h i n g , 1 9 9 3 p . 8 3 . 2 T h i s t o t a l i s t h e a n n u a l s u m o f e x p e n d i t u r e s f o r a d d i t i o n a l i n f r a s t r u c t u r e c a p a c i t y t o a c c o m m o d a t e f u t u r e d e v e l o p m e n t , c o n v e r t e d i n t o p r e s e n t v a l u e a t a p e r a n n u m r a t e o f a p p r o x i m a t e l y 5 % . 3 A s d e t e r m i n e d b y t h e a m o u n t o f r e v e n u e g e n e r a t e d b y t h e b u i l d i n g a s t h e s a m e a m o u n t o f m o n e y c o u l d b e r e a s o n a b l y i n v e s t e d a t 1 0 % p e r a n n u m t o g e n e r a t e t h e s a m e n e t c a s h f l o w o f $ 1 0 0 , 0 0 0 . Page 104 Conclusions and Management Implications It is not the strongest species that survive, nor the most intelligent, but the ones most responsive to change" (Sir Charles Darwin, 1859) 6.1 Conclusions In considering the management of land-based resources in urban and rural regions we must acknowledge that the context within which planning occurs has changed dramatically over the past four decades. The quality of life in communities throughout North America will be directly determined by the degree to which communities recognize, and more importantly respond to, the processes of change that will transform regions over the coming decades. The question was asked earlier that if growth management is predicated on growth, does the lack of growth imply an absence of the need for management? The discussion presented here shows that the answer to that question is no, as it is not aggregate increases or declines in population, but the patterns of lifecycle and lifestyle change that will shape land uses, housing markets, transportation demand, school enrolment, medical requirements and funeral services. None of these issues can be accurately characterized by the aggregate size of a region's population, as each are influenced by changes in its underlying composition. However, growth management still focuses on controlling the rate of population growth. In seeking control of population growth, management practices have had a direct impact on land resources and patterns of community and regional development. Research shows that growth controls have contributed in some part to development being pushed to outlying areas, resulting in a greater degree of low density suburban sprawl, increased housing prices, growing dependency on the automobile and negative impacts on the environment. Given the change that will characterize all communities over the coming decades, management practices must go beyond simple expressions of controlling aggregate population growth towards managing the relevant aspects of change that constitute it. Any framework for planning must have at its foundation a projection of the emerging structure of its population and the land use implications it will present. This research establishes such a framework to facilitate the evolving discussions about change management. A Framework for Community Change Chapter 6 Page 105 Over the next four decades the District will add 174,372 new residents as it more than doubles in size from 1999's 152,343 people to over 326,700 by 2040. More importantly, although total population in the region projected to grow by 114%, each of the 65 plus age groups will see between 151% (65 to 74 age cohort) and 292% (85 plus) growth. Aging of the resident population will cause the Regional District move from a situation today where one in six people are over the age of 65 to one in four decades where one in four are eligible for Canadian Pension Plan benefits and seniors' discounts. The direct impact of changes in the composition of the Okanagan's population will be a significant increase in the number of people supported, to one extent or another, by the working age population. This is illustrated by the total beneficiary ratio increasing from 536 people per 1000 people of working age in 1999 to 604 people per 1000 by 2040. By this point the elderly beneficiary ratio will be 69% greater than the youth beneficiary ratio, the result of the leading edge of the baby boom aging into the retirement stage of the lifecycle. The framework also shows that we have a good approximation of the region's future population in those who are residents today, only slightly older, wiser and possibly a little wearier. By 2020 over three quarters (117,933 of the projected 239,839) of the region's population will be comprised of those who were residents in 1999. Of the region's 326,700 residents in 2040, over half will be survivors or offspring of 1999's population. Two conclusions that any planning framework must acknowledge arise out of the projection population change. The first is that over any strategic planning time horizon issues of population will be related to changes in its composition, more specifically the inevitable process of the aging of residents through the various stages of the lifecycle, than aggregate levels of population growth. The second is that changes in the age composition of any region's population will be dominated by its current residents, rather than new migrants to the region. Therefore, change will occur regardless of whether growth is seen or not: adding over 174,000 people to the Central Okanagan or taking 15,262 away from it if there were no migration will have no impact on the aging of the 152,343 people who are residents today. The aging of the regions residents will have an impact on everything from simple issues such as longer walk lights at crosswalks and larger print on newspapers, to more complex matters such as service delivery land resources within the Regional District. One of the major impacts will be on housing. The implications of population change on housing is the next step of the framework for three reasons. The first is that housing is the major land use in any urban setting. Second, housing generates direct demand for other urban infrastructure such as roads, sewers, schools, hospitals, stores and recreational facilities and third, community and regional planning A Framework for Community Change Chapter 6 Page 106 goals generally give emphasis to housing location, quality, quantity and affordability, and consequently give consideration to the conversion of land to residential uses. Along with the 114% growth in population wil l come a 128% growth in housing demand in the Central Okanagan Regional District. Housing demand in the District will grow faster than total population as a result of two factors, the aging of the baby boom into the 55 plus age groups and the high probability that people in these age groups are household maintainers. Of the total increase in housing stock of 77,700 units, 61,800 (80%) will be ground-oriented units, over three quarter of which (47,100 units) wil l be for traditional single-detached homes. The vast majority of future housing wil l be to accommodate the changing needs of the region's existing residents. Over the next two decades, almost two thirds of the projected 101,300 dwelling units wil l be to accommodate changing needs of the Region's 1999 residents. By 2040, 43%) of the housing stock will be occupied by people who were already resident or their offspring in 1999. A focus on population growth would inherently underestimate the demand for housing as it would not recognize the underlying structural change of a population. For example, between 1990 and 1998 housing demand in Metropolitan Vancouver grew from between 5% (1990) and 7% (1998), while over the same period total population growth was in the range of 2% to 4%>. Every year between 1990 and 1998 housing demand increased between 4 and 17 times faster that total population. Planning policy based on aggregate population growth would have significantly underestimated total housing demand. Just as the baby boom spurred the massive suburban housing boom of the 1950's, they will cause another significant boom over the coming decades. Not directly through new housing demand as in the 1950's, but indirectly as the vast majority remain in their large suburban dwellings and force additional single-detached capacity to be added on greenfield sites at the end of community infrastructure and servicing. These new developments will largely be for the baby boomers children as they move into the family formation stage of the lifecycle just as their parents did a generation before. At one end of the planning spectrum will increasingly be issues of aging in place as the bulk of the already resident Boomers move into the "empty nester" stage of the lifecycle, while at the other will be those of newly nesting families looking for family homes. Within a framework for the evaluation of community change, two spatial components of change will be of primary concern to planning: how and where development is accommodated. The location and physical form that new dwelling units are constructed in wil l determine the degree to which the currently urbanized portion of the regional district will expand and the capital costs associated with these new developments. In this context, how land is used to accommodate A Framework for Community Change Chapter 6 Page 107 change wil l to a large degree determine the direct and indirect costs of change in land and infrastructure servicing. Accommodating the projected 77,679 new dwelling units in traditional development formats that have been seen over the past two decades would require the conversion of 20,645 acres of land to residential uses between 1999 and 2040 in the Central Okanagan. The vast majority of this land would be converted for additional ground-oriented capacity; 19,393 (94%) additional acres would be needed to accommodate new ground-oriented homes. In turn, 17,159 (88%) acres of the land needed for ground-oriented units would be to build new single-detached homes. Given a range of options for the future share of development in the city of Kelowna, accommodating between 31,084 and 64,105 new dwelling units would require between 4,126 and 16,240 acres of this land to be converted to residential uses within Kelowna. The city currently has an urban reserve of 7,536 acres. Over the next four decades the present value of direct on and off-site capital expenditures required to build infrastructure and servicing for these new developments in the Regional District would amount to over $1.57 billion dollars, the majority of which would be allocated to the development of new single-detached homes on greenfield sites. Depending on the future share and form of development, between $1.31 billion and $441 million of these expenditures would be needed for development inside Kelowna. Through the framework, several policy alternatives were considered that lead to the general conclusion that how and where development is accommodated is reflected directly in land and infrastructure costs. For example, i f suburban development were built in compact development forms where average lot sizes were reduced by two thirds over traditional development and one third of development was accommodated as infill, 10,735 acres of land (50% less) would be converted to residential uses over the coming four decades. The associated capital expenditures for infrastructure and servicing would be $1.04 billion, over one third less than traditional development models. Although seemingly intuitive, this leads to two interesting insights. First, compact suburban development and infill is the least expensive alternative as it requires fewer acres of land and infrastructure servicing to accommodate the same number of dwellings as the other formats. Second, that sprawl is the less expensive as a result of cheaper land outside the currently urbanized portion of the region. In addition to sprawl, the least expensive format for it to occur in is compact development. Although policy, namely the regulation of minimum lot sizes, has limited the development of compact residential communities in these areas, the framework gives A Framework for Community Change Chapter 6 Page 108 a good representation of why development has traditionally occurred in successively lower density rings around urban regions. While compact development in suburban locations may be the least expensive alternative to development, few would agree that it is the most desirable location for development. Therefore, the focus of strategic land use planning issues over the next four decades wil l be on accommodating additional single-detached capacity in a more efficient and equitable manner than in the past. Two issues will become increasingly paramount as they attempt to do so, that of fully accounting for the external costs of development and the opportunity cost of developing land. Although it is not possible to quantify all external costs such as air pollution, the opportunity cost of tax dollars diverted away for alternative uses, the long term depletion of fossil fuel resources or the overall quality of community life, the framework can show the degree to which fully accounting for external costs would offset the effects of "cheap" land in suburban locations. The point at which both developer and purchaser become indifferent between building or purchasing a home in a suburban location versus one in a more urban location is (given the cost assumptions presented in the framework) approximately $70,000 per acre of land. However, the bid rent curve discussed earlier means that home purchasers (lot purchasers in this instance) would not pay the same price for an identical house in Kelowna as they would at a distance from the city. As increasing the costs of development in the non-urban areas would add to the total cost of suburban development, the only way the developer could cover the increased cost of development is to initially pay less for the land. As long as the developer is the highest bidder for this non-urban land, their bids will push down land values (from $55,000 per acre to zero if trying to cover the $70,000 per acre charge) and will have no impact on the extent of suburban development. However, i f non-developers are also considered as potential bidders for the land, the value of the land would be reduced only to the levels determined by these competing interests. If farmers were willing to pay $40,000 per acre of land (as determined by the stream of possible agricultural revenue from the land), then the value would be bid down to this point and residential development would stop. In this instance, i f the externally imposed charge is in excess of $15,000 (the difference between a current suburban land value of $55,000 and the agricultural value of $40,000) then the external costs of development, simply put, are too high to justify suburban development. Accounting for these additional external cost, the total on and off-site costs future development would be $1.71 billion under a traditional development scenario where Kelowna sees an increasing share of future development A Framework for Community Change Chapter 6 Page 109 On the other hand, the opportunity costs of land are not reflected in current markets but are represented by the value of alternatives foregone tomorrow by converting land into specific uses today. The framework can be used to illustrate the impacts of changing views about valuation of urban and rural land resources. If a starting point for the social value, or the opportunity cost of land is represented by the current market value of land (adding an additional $125,000 per acre to the cost equation), the full cost of building future development would increase by over one billion dollars to $2.40 billion under a traditional development scenario where Kelowna sees an increasing share of future development. If the full external costs discussed above are added, the full cost of future development would increase to $2.75 billion dollars over the coming four decades. Land use, infrastructure and housing policies are the levers by which communities throughout the Regional District can influence the scale, scope and location of future development. The challenge facing the region will first be to ensure the provision of an adequate supply of ground-oriented housing. The second and more pervasive challenge will be providing this additional stock in an efficient and equitable manner that reflects communities' land use, fiscal and environmental objectives. Efficiently providing additional housing capacity wil l mean reevaluating how development has occurred in the past, building more compact developments and increasing the efficiency of land and buildings in existing urban areas. Equitably providing additional housing capacity will mean reevaluating who pays for the form and location of these developments. Retrofitting, infill and duplexing will become cornerstones of change management, just as building complete communities has become one of the guiding principles of growth management today. Driven by both environmental and economic concerns, efficiency has become an important policy criterion in the 1990's. In a planning context, there is an overall question of allocation of resources throughout a community and, as land is one of the most vital of these resources land use is one of the most integral components of planning. In a policy context, to facets of the land use debate deserve consideration. One focuses on the efficiency of land that is being utilized for the development of new communities, while the second concerns how efficiently the stock of housing is used in existing communities. Although each brings to light very different set of economic and social issues, each are fundamentally tied to changes in regional land resources. The outcomes of the framework lead to a variety of possible strategies that could shape future policy directions in seeking greater efficiencies at these two levels: efficiency of land use and efficiency of housing, both in new and existing locations. It also presents insight into paying A Framework for Community Change Chapter 6 Page 110 for the external costs of future development; should the full costs of future development be shouldered by new residents, or should they be shared with those existing communities that are resistant to change, effectively pushing development to outlying areas and increasing external economic and social costs? 6.2 Final Remarks This research provides the empirical basis from which discussions about future strategies for managing change in any region should occur. In doing so, it underscores the pervasiveness of change and the potential opportunities that exist to enhance community livability given the inevitable demographic shifts that will occur over the next 40 years. The future quality of life in any region will be directly determined by the degree to which both planning jurisdictions and the general public acknowledge and, more importantly, choose to respond to the challenges presented by change. What this research also calls attention to is a substantial lack of information. A lack of information concerning the fundamental processes of community change, and a lack of information regarding the economic, environmental and social costs associated with the location, density and timing of future development. It highlights the fact that current planning decisions are still largely predicated on aggregate notions of population growth, without sufficient information about the external costs and tradeoffs associated with these decisions. Change Management: Page 111 A Framework for Community and Regional Planning Appendix I Research Framework Current Population Aging Natality Mortality Intra-provincial Inter-grovincial International Household Maintainer Rates by Age and Sex Land Requirements by Structure Type Location Criteria y Land Prices Direct Infrastructure Per Unit Costs External Costs r^jrjortunU f^Josts^  Projected Population by Age and Sex Housing (h •« iquincy Demand Projection J Land Demand Projection \~ Land Conversion Demand \ Locational Patterns Land and Infrastructure Costing Projection Evaluation of Alternatives \~ Housing Policy Land Policy Regional Growth Sharing Scenarios Development Format Scenarios Evolution Criteria Planning Strategy Change Management: Page 112 A Framework for Community and Regional Planning Bibliography Anderson and Tregoning, "Smart Growth in our Future" in Smart Growth. Economy, Community and Environment; Urban Land Institute, 1998. B C Statistics, PEOPLE 23 Municipal and Regional District Population Estimates; Ministry of Finance and Corporate Relations, 1998. Brower, Godschalk and Porter, Understanding Growth Management Critical Issues and a Research Agenda; The Urban Land Institute, 1989. Burcell Robert and Listokin David, Land, Infrastructure. Housing Costs and Fiscal Impacts Associated with Growth: The Literature on the Impacts of Sprawl Versus Managed Growth; Lincoln Institute of Land Policy, 1995. Burcell Robert et al., Costs of Sprawl Revisited: The Evidence of Sprawl's Negative and Positive Impacts; Rutgers University Center for Urban Policy Research, 1998. Calthorpe Peter, The Next American Metropolis. Princeton Architectural Press, 1993. Carter Philip, Techniques for Coordinating and Managing Growth; Journal of Urban Planning and Development, June 1993, Vol . 119, No 2. Chinitz Benjamin, Growth Management Good for the Town. Bad for the Nation?; Journal of the American Planning Association, winter 1990. De Grove J. M . , "Growth Management and Governance" in Understanding Growth Management Critical Issues and a Research Agenda; The Urban Land Institute, 1989. Deakin Elisabeth, Growth Controls and Growth Management: A Summary and Review of Empirical Research in Understanding Growth Management; Urban Land Institute, 1998. Department of Regional and Community Planning, The Growth Management Strategy for the Regional District of the Central Okanagan; Department of Regional and Community Planning, 1999. Downs Anthony, New Visions for Metropolitan America; The Brookings Institute, 1994. Fischel William, Growth Management Reconsidered; Journal of the American Planning Association, summer 1991. Friedman John, Retracking America, A Theory of Transactive Planning; Anchor Books, 1973. Godschalk D., and Brower D. " A Coordinated Growth Management Research Strategy" in Understanding Growth Management Critical Issues and a Research Agenda; The Urban Land Institute, 1989. Goetez Rolf, Understanding Neighbourhood Change; Ballinger Publishing, 1979. Page 113 Gottlieb Paul, "The "Golden Egg" as a Natural Resource: Towards a Normative Theory of Growth Management" in Society and Natural Resources: 1995 V.8 p. 49-56. Hutton Thomas A. , "Structural Change and the Urban Policy Challenge" in City Regions: September 1996. Johnston Rita, Proposed Regional District Legislation: Ministry of Municipal Affairs 1987. Jones Ken, Simmons Jim, Location Location Location: International Thompson Publishing, 1993. Lessinger Jack, Penturbia; SocioEconomics Inc., 1991. Lower Mainland Regional Planning Board, Co-Ordinate Systems for the Lower Mainland: Lower Mainland Regional Planning Board, 1969. Lower Mainland Regional Planning Board, Origins of the Lower Mainland Regional Planning Board: Lower Mainland Regional Planning Board, 1969. Lynch Kevin, What Time is this Place?: MIT Press, 1972. Ministry of Municipal Affairs, An Explanatory Guide to BC 's Growth Strategies Act: Ministry of Municipal Affairs, 1995. Ministry of Municipal Affairs, Growth Strategies Act Draft Legislation: Ministry of Municipal Affairs, 1995. Ministry of Municipal Affairs, Growth Strategies for the 1990's and Beyond: Ministry of Municipal Affairs, 1994. Ministry of Municipal Affairs, Residential Services and Site Planning Standards; Associated Engineering Services Ltd., 1980. Ministry of Municipal Affairs, The Planning Act: Ministry of Municipal Affairs, 1980. Moore and Nelson, Lessons for Effective Urban-Containment and Resource-Land-Preservation Policy; Journal of Urban Planning and Development, December 1994, Vo l . 120, No 4. Mumford Lewis, The City in History; Harcourt, Brace, Janovitz, 1961. National Association of Home Builders, Cost Effective Site Planning; National Association of Home Builders, 1976. Nelson Arthur and Duncan James, Growth Management Practices and Principles; American Planning Association, 1995. Porter D., State and Regional Initiatives for Managing Development; Urban Land Institute, 1992. Porter Douglas, State and Regional Initiatives for Managing Development Policy Issues and Practical Concerns; The Urban Land Institute, 1992. Page 114 Shen Q., "Spatial impacts of locally enacted growth controls; the San Francisco Bay Region in the 1980's" in Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design; 1996, V.3. Statistics Canada, 1991 Census of Canada, Population and Dwelling Characteristics; Minister of Supply and Services, 1991. Statistics Canada, 1996 Census of Canada. Population and Dwelling Characteristics; Minister of Supply and Services, 1996. Statistics Canada, 1998 Annual Demographic Statistics; Minister of Supply and Services, 1998. Tayman Jeff, "Forecasting, Growth Management and Public Policy Decision Making" in Population Research and Policy Review; December 1996, 15: 491-508. Urban Development Institute, Planning for Tomorrow: The Next Generation; Urban Development Institute, 1991. Urban Land Institute, Housing for a Maturing Population; Urban Land Institute, 1983. Urban Land Institute, Smart Growth. Economy. Community, Environment; Urban Land Institute 1998. Vance James, The Continuing City: Urban Morphology in Western Civilization; Johns Hopkins University Press, 1990. Weisman B., The B C Planning Act - A Critique - ; U B C Planning Papers, 1980. 

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