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Planners and planning for climate change : an examination of sea level rise issues for coastal settlements Moore, Janet Linda 1994

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PLANNERS AND PLANNING FOR CLIMATE CHANGE. AN EXAMINATION OF SEA LEVEL R I S E ISSUES FOR COASTAL  SETTLEMENTS by  JANET LINDA MOORE Hons. B.A,, Y o r k U n i v e r s i t y ,  1988  A THESIS SUBMITTED I N PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTERS OF ARTS I N PLANNING  in THE FACULTY OF GRADUATE STUDIES THE SCHOOL OF COMMUNITY AND REGIONAL  PLANNING  We a c c e p t t h i s t h e s i s a s c o n f o r m i n g /'6o^the requ4|red ^ ; t a r ^ a r d  THE UNIVERSITY OF B R I T I S H  COLUMBIA  May 1994 @  J a n e t L i n d a M o o r e , 1994  In  presenting  degree freely  at  this  the  University  available  copying  of  department publication  for  this or of  thesis  this  partial  of  for  his thesis  fulfilment  British  reference  thesis by  in  and  Columbia,  study.  scholarly  or for  her  of  gain  be  It  is  shall  that  agree  may  representatives.  financial  requirements  I agree  I further  purposes  the  not  that  the  Library  permission  granted  by  undei stood be  for  allowed  an  advanced  shall for  the that  without  head  offScJKoCrQ  T h e U n i v e r s i t y of British Vancouver, Canada  Date  DE-e (2/88)  Columbia  Co-^f<vJVvNU^  it  extensive of  my  copying  or  my  permission.  Department  make  ^^^Cg^XoS  written  ABSTRACT This  thesis  increases  i n average g l o b a l  communities warming  f o c u s e s on t h e p l a n n i n g  throughout  seas  levels  the world.  repercussions,  problems of a n t i c i p a t e d f o r coastal  The  increasing  combination  population  evolution of megacities are discussed  and i s l a n d of  growth,  these  discussions  economic  issues  international  are the related  of equity  dimensions.  and s e c u r i t y Several  planning,  similarities  opportunities  and d i f f e r e n c e s  and  n a t i o n a l , and  country p r o f i l e s are included  among  nations  to illustrate  i n t h e i r challenges  t o deal e f f e c t i v e l y with global climate  and  change.  I t i s argued that planners should a c t as "enablers", planning  Inherent  political,  of local,  f r o m b o t h t h e d e v e l o p e d and l e s s - d e v e l o p e d the  and t h e  i nthe context of sustainable  d e v e l o p m e n t i n communities a f f e c t e d by r i s i n g s e a l e v e l s . in  global  and t h a t  as a f u n c t i o n o f s o c i e t y has a s p e c i f i c r e s p o n s i b i l i t y t o  e d u c a t e and p r e p a r e " t h e p u b l i c " f o r g l o b a l c l i m a t e changes and s e a level  rise.  The r o l e o f p l a n n i n g  uncertainty planning,  i s discussed  i n the context of  i n r i s k assessment, gaps i n knowledge, c o n s t r a i n t s t o  d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g s t r a t e g i e s , a n d c o a s t a l z o n e management  in general.  An o v e r v i e w o f g l o b a l , n a t i o n a l , and l o c a l t r e n d s and  p r e l i m i n a r y actions taken t o date are presented. transitional  measures and b e t t e r  decision-making  government  policy  strategies are  required  in  research,  a n d e d u c a t i o n i n o r d e r t h a t a l l s o c i e t i e s may move, more  equitably,  planning,  I t i s argued that  toward creating a sustainable  development,  future.  future  TABLE OF CONTENTS Abstract Table o f Contents L i s t of Tables  i  i)  Introduction  ii)  The P r o b l e m : a) C l i m a t e b)  Change a n d S u s t a i n a b l e  iii)  3  G l o b a l Warming & S e a L e v e l R i s e  What a r e t h e c r i t i c a l a) U n c e r t a i n t y b)  Development  Change  iv)  ii)  i  1  Why i s i t i m p o r t a n t ?  i)  i  v  iii)  6 11  issues?  S u s t a i n a b l e Development  Presentation of Material  CHAPTER TWO  i  and F i g u r e s  CHAPTER ONE - G l o b a l C l i m a t e  v)  i  15 17 20  - Sea L e v e l R i s e i n C o a s t a l & I s l a n d Communities  Introduction a) Current Conditions b) Projected Future Conditions C i t y and Country P r o f i l e s a) The D e v e l o p e d C o u n t r i e s The U n i t e d S t a t e s California Canada Australia b) The S t i l l D e v e l o p i n g Countries Southeast A s i a , Bangladesh Bangkok, T h a i l a n d M a n i l l a , & N e g r o s , The P h i l i p p i n e s . The M e d i t e r r a n e a n R e g i o n The N i l e , E g y p t c) I s l a n d Communities The S o u t h P a c i f i c I s l a n d s The M a l d i v e s , E a s t I n d i a n O c e a n • • The H a w a i i a n I s l a n d s Repercussions a) Urban I n f r a s t r u c t u r e b) Economic Systems c) Summary o f Known I m p a c t s o f S e a L e v e l R i s e Due t o C l i m a t e Change  24 27 30 31 32 35 37 40 44 46 47 48 51 54 55 60 62 65  CHAPTER THREE - P l a n n i n g i n A c t i o n i)  What i s P l a n n i n g ? What do P l a n n e r s d o ?  ii)  U n c e r t a i n t y i n P l a n n i n g : Gaps i n K n o w l e d g e a n d Other Constraints t o Planning Decision-making i n Planning: The R o l e of Coastal Zone Management i n Planning f o r C l i m a t e Change a) Policy Deficiencies b) Intervention Failure c) Market F a i l u r e  iii)  67 72 77 80 83 86  CHAPTER FOUR - I n t e g r a t i n g C l i m a t e Change i n P l a n n i n g i)  C u r r e n t P l a n n i n g I n i t i a t i v e s and P r o p o s a l s t o A d d r e s s C l i m a t e Change, a n d R i s i n g S e a L e v e l s a) The I n t e r n a t i o n a l Community b) National Planning Strategies c) L o c a l Planning Responses  89 95 98  ii)  P l a n n i n g as i f today mattered  103  iii)  Recommendations f o r A c t i o n a) Implementing T r a n s i t i o n a l A c t i o n s on N a t i o n a l and L o c a l L e v e l s b) Implementing T r a n s i t i o n a l A c t i o n s i n C o a s t a l Zone Management  106  Future Thoughts  113  iv)  Bibliography  107 109  L I S T OF Table 1  Ten  Table 2  C o n v e n t i o n on C l i m a t e Reduction Schedule  TABLES  c o u n t r i e s most v u l n e r a b l e t o s e a Change: COj  L I S T OF Figure  1  level rise  . .  26  Emissions 101  FIGURES  Model p r o j e c t i o n s o f g l o b a l warming  5  Figure 2  G l o b a l Sea  Figure 3  A r e a s v u l n e r a b l e t o r i s i n g sea  Figure 4  Bangladesh under t h r e a t  43  Figure 5  I s l a n d s of the T r o p i c a l South P a c i f i c  52  Figure 6  Measurements o f carbon d i o x i d e c o n c e n t r a t i o n s t h e a i r f r o m Mauna L o a , H a w a i i  Figure 7  L e v e l Change, G l o b a l T e m p e r a t u r e Change level  S a l t water i n t r u s i o n i n t o a freshwater  . 9 29  lens  in  ....  56 61  CHAPTER ONE GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE and SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT i)  Introduction To  date,  volumes have been w r i t t e n o n g l o b a l c l i m a t e  change.  P r o b l e m s s u c h a s t h e g r e e n h o u s e e f f e c t , o z o n e d e p l e t i o n , and sea  l e v e l s have  been  impact on a l l aspects ecological current  change  resources  signals  with  a  environment  environment.  associated In reality  " d i s e q u i l i b r i u m i n human  as  based on growth, and w h i c h c o n s i d e r t h e a  static  entity  providing  climate  change forms an i n t e g r a l p a r t  discussions  as  evidenced  unlimited  t h e more  challenging  the issues  development  represent  war),  politically,  issue  of global  a n d window  numerous  A t t h e h e a r t o f any  e s p e c i a l l y r i s i n g sea of  sustainable  climate  the single  the  and i n s t i t u t i o n s s e t  up t o s p e c i f i c a l l y t o a d d r e s s t h i s phenomenon. d i s c u s s i o n o f c l i m a t e change i m p a c t s ,  o f any current  by  p u b l i c a t i o n s , s p e c i a l committees, conferences,  nuclear  from  a n d a " s i n k " i n w h i c h t o dump h u m a n - p r o d u c e d w a s t e s . '  environmental  Together,  t o their  (Rees, 1990), which r e s u l t s from e x i s t i n g economic models  Global  is  regard  as separate  i n thenatural  of development which are natural  and debated  o f human l i f e ,  conseguences  atmospheric  ecology"  studied  rising  change  biggest  of opportunity  o f t h e t w e n t y - f i r s t century.  development.  and s u s t a i n a b l e  challenge —  levels,  (short of  economically  Thus,  there  and  i s much  ' W i l l i a m E. R e e s , ( 1 9 9 0 ) . " A t m o s p h e r i c C h a n g e : Human Ecology i n D i s e q u i l i b r i u m " , i n The I n t e r n a t i o n a l J o u r n a l o f Environmental Studies.  c o n t e n t i o u s debate over t h e causes, i m p a c t s , and a p p r o p r i a t e n e s s o f a c t i o n t o be adopted.  The  issues  related  to rising  sea levels,  indeed  of global  c l i m a t e c h a n g e i n g e n e r a l , a r e p l a g u e d b y a t t a c k s t h a t many o f t h e concerns, and t h e g e n e r a l l e v e l  o f a n x i e t y s u r r o u n d i n g them, a r e  t o o broad, t o o vague a t t i m e s , and t o o c r i s i s o r i e n t e d . contrary t o t h e claims of these c r i t i c i s m s , average  the impacts of r i s i n g  s e a l e v e l s upon c o a s t a l and i s l a n d c o m m u n i t i e s  the world are very specific  i n nature.  throughout  They a r e more t h a n  abstract  impacts.  T h o s e a f f e c t e d h a v e more t h a n v a g u e  and  the land  and i t s people  both  However,  affected  just  concerns,  a r e a l r e a d y and w i l l  c o n t i n u e t o be e x p e r i e n c i n g s e r i o u s t o c r i s i s - l e v e l r e p e r c u s s i o n s on t h e i r economic, p o l i t i c a l ,  and c u l t u r a l  life.  S i n c e a t m o s p h e r i c change i s p r e d o m i n a t e l y a p r o b l e m  i n human  e c o l o g y (Rees, 1990), i t i s p r e s e n t e d and argued i n t h i s paper planners,  and  responsibility  the  role  t o prepare  of  planning,  their  have  "publics"  a  very  f o r the  that  specific inevitable  i m p a c t s o f c l i m a t e change wrought by t h e advancements o f i n d u s t r i a l development.  As  individuals,  planners  possess  the s k i l l s  and  o p p o r t u n i t i e s t o educate both themselves and o t h e r s , and t h e r e f o r e influence the planning process. prelude proactive  to] action, i n practice,  *In p l a n n i n g a s a p r o c e s s o f [ o r  opportunities as w e l l  exist  f o r planners  as advocates  to  be  and " b i g p i c t u r e "  t h i n k e r s u t i l i z i n g e x i s t i n g k n o w l e d g e a n d windows o f o p p o r t u n i t y t o  e f f e c t a b e t t e r , more s e c u r e f u t u r e f o r a l l c o n c e r n e d .  This economic, choice"  t h e s i s , t h e r e f o r e , hopes t o p r o v i d e information,  and c u l t u r a l  t h a t d e t e r m i n e s what o p t i o n s  orders  i l l u m i n a t i o n o f how  create  people see,  t h e y b e l i e v e t h e y a r e a b l e t o make ( B o u l d i n g ,  "conditions of  and what  1983) .  choices  P l a n n i n g , as  a f u n c t i o n o f s o c i e t y [human c i v i l i z a t i o n ] , i s t h e r e f o r e  discussed  as a v e h i c l e by w h i c h c l i m a t e change c a n and s h o u l d be a n t i c i p a t e d , addressed,  and u t i l i z e d  in a  positive  way  t o create  sustainable  f u t u r e f o r a l l peoples everywhere.  a  I t i s argued  truly that  b e t t e r decision-making s t r a t e g i e s are required t o e l i m i n a t e harmful economic and p r i v a t e a c t i v i t i e s , and t h a t t r a n s i t i o n a l measures a r e r e q u i r e d on l o c a l p l a n n i n g cope  with  changes  and economic l e v e l s t o h e l p  i n industry  and  lifestyles.  t r a n s i t i o n a l m e a s u r e s now e v e n t u a l l y we w i l l the  communities By  enacting  a l l be b e t t e r o f f i n  long run.  ii)  The Problem  a)  C l i m a t e Change According  t o R e e s (1990) i n " A t m o s p h e r i c C h a n g e : Human E c o l o g y  i n D i s e q u i l i b r i u m " , t h e r e a r e two c o n t r a s t i n g p e r s p e c t i v e s by w h i c h t o examine t h e s u b j e c t  o f a t m o s p h e r i c change i n g e n e r a l ;  ecological  which  state  perspective  views  "humankind  as e x i s t i n g  o f o b l i g a t e dependency on t h e n a t u r a l w o r l d " ,  anthropogenic  perspective  which  views  nature  one, an  or  in a  a n d two, an the physical  environment  as merely a " s t a t i c backdrop  t o human a f f a i r s " . ^  The  c h o i c e , a n d d e f e n c e , o f one p e r s p e c t i v e o v e r a n o t h e r d e t e r m i n e s a l l current  and  planning,  future  and  contexts  action  not  or  crisis,  o r i f i t even e x i s t s ,  radical  and  atmospheric  v e r y soon,  continuously  past  change  In  research,  short,  policy,  i t determines  i s p e r c e i v e d as  and whether  s h o u l d be  a n y t h i n g c a n be d o n e a b o u t  the  education,  (or n o n - a c t i o n ) .  whether  Over  for  a problem  or not something,  done a b o u t  i t , or  or  fairly  i f and  when  cultures  have  i t at a l l .  centuries  former  transformed themselves,  traditional their  living  environments,  economies,  and p o l i t i c a l systems from p r e d o m i n a t e l y r u r a l - a g r a r i a n  and  merchant  small  economies  to  today's  predominately  c a p i t a l i s t mode o f i n d u s t r i a l p r o d u c t i o n b a s e d on g r o w t h . this  growth  currently  has  occurred within  estimated a  full  one  coastal third  of  areas,  western Much o f  wherein,  i t is  the world's population  c u r r e n t l y l i v e s w i t h i n 60 k i l o m e t r e s o f c o a s t s . ^  In  this  century, accelerating  such as c a r b o n d i o x i d e (CH4)  and  nitrous  atmosphere r e s u l t i n g  2  i n c r e a s e s i n greenhouse  (COj) , c h l o r o f l u o r o c a r b o n s ( C F C s ) , methane  oxide  (NjO) ,  have  accumulated  i n gradual, but s t e a d i l y  W i l l i a m E. R e e s ,  gases  (1990);  in  the  upper  r i s i n g g l o b a l mean  Ibid.  ^ A l G o r e , 1992. E a r t h i n t h e B a l a n c e . E c o l o g y and t h e Human S p i r i t ; ( H o u g h t o n M i f f l i n Company; New Y o r k , New Y o r k ) ; p a g e 104.  annual temperatures. in  thelast  G l o b a l atmospheric temperature has increased  100 y e a r s b y a l m o s t  1 degree  C e n t i g r a d e , a n d human  a c t i v i t i e s t h r e a t e n t o f u r t h e r a l t e r g l o b a l average t e m p e r a t u r e s by up t o 3-4 t i m e s t h a t amount.''  Human a c t i v i t i e s h a v e d r i v e n up t h e  c o n c e n t r a t i o n o f c a r b o n d i o x i d e (COj) l e v e l s f r o m 3 00 ppm d u r i n g t h e last  i c e a g e (17,000 y e a r s ago) t o 335 ppm, w i t h  an a n t i c i p a t e d  r i s e t o 600 ppm w i t h i n t h e n e x t f o r t y y e a r s a l o n e . ^  Figure 1  Model p r o j e c t i o n s  of global  warming  4.00  2050  Source:  Department of the Environment  Source: Department o f t h e Environment ( U n i t e d S t a t e s ) i n M a r t i n I n c e (1990). The R i s i n g Seas. (Earthscan P u b l i c a t i o n s L t d . ; London); page 27.  A l Gore,  ( 1 9 9 2 ) , I b i d ; p a g e s 73 a n d 9 6 .  ^ A l G o r e , ( 1 9 9 2 ) , I b i d . ; p a g e 9 5 ; 130,000 y e a r s a g o , a t t h e e n d o f t h e n e x t t o l a s t i c e a g e , C O 2 l e v e l s w e r e l e s s t h a n 200 ppm.  This  warming  trend  affects  a i r current  patterns,  levels,  movements o f o c e a n c u r r e n t s , f r e q u e n c y  storms,  and land-based  g l a c i a l melting.  precipitation  and i n t e n s i t y o f  This a r t i f i c i a l  warming*  o f t h e upper atmosphere i s a l s o l e a d i n g t o ozone d e p l e t i o n , reduced o x i d a t i o n , a n d r i s i n g s e a l e v e l s among o t h e r e c o l o g i c a l  b)  G l o b a l Warming and Sea L e v e l R i s e The  cenozoic  e r a i n which  we  live  m i l l i o n y e a r s ago w i t h t h e d i s a p p e a r a n c e time,  t h e g l o b a l mean a n n u a l  Celsius  warmer  Anthropological  than  those  evidence  temperatures  o f today  the past  activities  began  approximately  of thedinosaurs. were o n l y  a t 15 d e g r e e s  o f human o c c u p a t i o n  c o a s t a l r e g i o n s date back t o a p p r o x i m a t e l y For  problems.  along  1-2  65  At that degrees  Centigrade.' the existing  1.2 m i l l i o n y e a r s  ago.*  6,000 y e a r s h u m a n k i n d h a s c o n t i n u o u s l y a d j u s t e d i t s  and s e t t l e m e n t s by t h e advances and r e c e s s i o n s o f t h e  s h o r e l i n e s , w i t h p o r t c o n s t r u c t i o n and c o a s t a l s e t t l e m e n t s d a t i n g back t o t h e 4 t h century.  However, t h e most i n t e n s e u t i l i z a t i o n o f  t h e c o a s t a l r e g i o n s and r e s o u r c e s h a s o c c u r r e d w i t h i n t h e l a s t few centuries.  B e c a u s e t h e s e c o a s t a l r e g i o n s s e r v e d i v e r s e human n e e d s  * " A r t i f i c i a l " warming o f t h e e a r t h ' s atmosphere i s d e f i n e d i n t h i s p a p e r a s human-caused g l o b a l warming, a s opposed t o t h e " n a t u r a l " accumulation o f greenhouse gases i n t h e atmosphere as a byproduct of p h y s i c a l e v o l u t i o n . J . L o v e l o c k (1988) . "Man a n d G a i a " i n T h e E a r t h R e p o r t , e d s . E. G o l d s m i t h a n d N. H i l l y a r d ; M i t c h e l l B e a z l e y ; ( P r i c e S t e r n S l o a n ; L o n d o n ; L o s A n g e l e s . ) i n G o r e ( 1 9 9 2 ) , Op. C i t . ; p a g e 9 5 . * S. S c h n e i d e r ( 1 9 8 3 ) , " C O 2 , C l i m a t e a n d S o c i e t y " i n R o b e r t S. C h e n , e t a l . E d i t o r s S o c i a l S c i e n c e R e s e a r c h a n d C l i m a t e C h a n g e . (D- R e i d e l P u b l i s h i n g Company; D o r d r e c h t , B o s t o n ) ; p a g e 9.  for  food,  energy,  transport,  industry, agriculture, policies  recreation,  forestry,  have t r a d i t i o n a l l y  fisheries,  encouraged  various near  sea levels  geological  as r a p i d  warming"  risen  p e r i o d s , "never  as t h a t  (Gore,  have  now  1992) .  and t r a d e , government  zones.  and f a l l e n  the  as a consequence end  of  the  ( a p p r o x i m a t e l y 20,000 y e a r s a g o ) , g l o b a l a v e r a g e about  300 f e e t  continental straits,  lower  shelf  with  Carpentaria  than  were  the  acting  they  exposed  existing as  throughout  has t h e change been  expected At  development,  i n c r e a s i n g p o p u l a t i o n and  i n d u s t r i a l d e n s i t i e s within these coastal  Although  urban  a r e today. as  dryland  Bering  landbridges.  anywhere of  last  global  i c e age  sea levels  Large  areas  and  shallow  Strait  and  These  the  the  bridges  were  of the ocean  Gulf  of  provided  m i g r a t o r y r o u t e s f o r t h e p r e s e n t - d a y a b o r i g i n e s i n t o A u s t r a l i a , and t h e A s i a t i c nomads i n t o N o r t h a n d S o u t h A m e r i c a . later  retreated,  sea l e v e l s  r o s e once a g a i n  As t h e g l a c i e r s  (about  10,000  years  ago) t r a p p i n g t h e new m i g r a n t s on t h e i r p r e s e n t - d a y c o n t i n e n t s .  At  t h e same t i m e , a s t e m p e r a t u r e s c l i m b e d , t h e g l o b a l c l i m a t e s y s t e m settled  i n t o a p a t t e r n t h a t i t has roughly m a i n t a i n e d ever  since,  up u n t i l t h i s c e n t u r y . '  A c c o r d i n g t o Dr. I r v i n g M i n t z e r , D i r e c t o r o f P o l i c y at the Center increase  f o r G l o b a l Change, U n i v e r s i t y  i n temperature  Gore  of 2  to 5  degrees  ( 1 9 9 2 ) , Op. C i t . ; p a g e 6 1 .  Research  of Maryland,  a small  Fahrenheit  c a n be  expected warming  early of  temperature years".'"  i n the  just  two  range  century.  degrees  which  Global  next  has  would  He  take  states, the  been e x p e r i e n c e d  warming  raises  sea  levels  that  "even  planet outside i n the in  last  a  the  10,000  several  ways:  through h i g h e r average temperatures, through the d i s c h a r g e of i c e i n t o t h e ocean from Greenland  land-based g l a c i a l m e l t i n g i n A n t a r c t i c a  in particular,  and t h r o u g h t h e t h e r m a l e x p a n s i o n o f t h e  v o l u m e o f t h e s e a a s i t s w a t e r s g r a d u a l l y warm." level  rise,  ignoring  on  a  gentle slope  subsidence  and  and  (20:1,  uplifting,  t i d e l a n d w a r d by 20 m e t e r s  (65.6  a  horizontal  1-meter r i s e  I n terms to  of  sea  vertical),  would  raise  a  feet).'^  Warmer t e m p e r a t u r e s a c c o m p a n i e d by r i s e s i n s e a l e v e l  affect  t i d a l f l o o d i n g , o c e a n i c c u r r e n t s and u p w e l l i n g p a t t e r n s ,  frequency  and  processes  intensity  (especially  for  of  storms,  inundated  changes coral  in  reefs),  biological landmass  runoff  and  e r o s i o n s p a t t e r n s ( a l r e a d y n e g a t i v e l y a f f e c t e d b y l a r g e dams s u c h a s t h e Aswan i n E g y p t ) , a n d  increases i n saltwater intrusion  e s t u a r i e s , r i v e r s , groundwater,  and a g r i c u l t u r a l s o i l s .  into  Moreover,  Don H i n r i c h s e n ( 1 9 9 0 ) , Our Common S e a s . C o a s t s i n C r i s i s . ( E a r t h s c a n P u b l i c a t i o n s L t d . ; London i n a s s o c i a t i o n w i t h U n i t e d N a t i o n s E n v i r o n m e n t Programme; N a i r o b i ) ; p a g e 20. " I t i s t h e " l a n d - b a s e d " g l a c i a l m e l t i n g , and n o t t h e m e l t i n g of i c e bergs i n t h e ocean, which causes sea l e v e l s t o rise. The l a r g e m a j o r i t y o f t h e i c e on e a r t h i s i n t h e f o r m o f land-based g l a c i e r s . L y n n e T. E d g e r t o n ( 1 9 9 1 ) , The R i s i n g T i d e . G l o b a l W a r m i n g and W o r l d Sea L e v e l s . ( N a t u r a l R e s o u r c e s Defense C o u n c i l / I s l a n d P r e s s ; W a s h i n g t o n , D.C. a n d C o v e l o , C a l i f o r n i a ) ; p a g e 24.  increased  storm  intensities  and  f r e q u e n c i e s would  cause  p r o p e r t y damage t o c o a s t a l s t r u c t u r e s , human i n j u r y a n d Figure 2  serious death.  Global Sea Level Change (cm) Global Temperature Change .150 _140  Upper Scenario <rate 0.8*C/deoade)  Upper Scenario  -120  -100 Middle Scenario (rate0.3-C/ decade)  3-  2-  Low  1860  1900  r  I  1—I—r 1930  1940  Scenario  T—I—I—I—I—I—I—r 2020  2060  2100  Global temperature and sea level change, historic and projected. To 1980, based on measurements. Upper scenario: with continued growth in energy use as at present. Middle scenario: stabilized emissions to the atmosphere. Lower scenario: with drastically reduced emission of greenhouse gases. (From f. Jaeger, Developing Policies for Responding to Climatic Change, World Meteorological Organization, April 1988.)  Source: I n Constance Mungall and Digby J . McLaren, Editors (1990). P l a n e t Under S t r e s s . F o r t h e R o y a l S o c i e t y o f C a n a d a ( O x f o r d U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s ; New Y o r k , T o r o n t o ) ; p a g e 65.  One today  o f t h e most w i d e l y r e c o g n i z e d i m p a c t s  i s the r i s e  o f sea  levels  and  l y i n g c o a s t a l areas around the g l o b e . ago  during  an i n t e r g l a c i a l  warming  of global  the subsequent  loss  warming o f low-  A p p r o x i m a t e l y 125,000 y e a r s period,  sea levels  rose  d r a s t i c a l l y by a b o u t t w e n t y - t h r e e general tended  feet.  U n t i l 1991,  t o discount the p o s s i b i l i t y  scientists in  of t h a t  r e o c c u r r e n c e f o r a t l e a s t a n o t h e r 200-300 y e a r s .  catastrophe's  However, i n  1991  D r . R o b e r t B i n d s c h a d l e r o f NASA, one o f t h e l e a d i n g e x p e r t s on West Antarctica, samplings  testified  from the  dangerous  anticipated  has  As  now  breakup  temperatures  a  U.S.  bottom of the  changes".  Bindschadler  before  a  shorten of  the  subcommittee  i c e sheet  result his  of  now  "new  show d y n a m i c  these  earlier  that  time  and  findings.  Dr.  frame  the  West A n t a r c t i c a i c e s h e e t  for as  global  continue to climb.  Similarly,  early  i n 1992  two  leading experts  L o n n i e and E l l e n Thompson o f t h e B r y d P o l a r R e s e a r c h  on  glaciers,  Center a t Ohio  S t a t e U n i v e r s i t y , r e p o r t e d t h a t " a l l mid-and l o w - l a t i t u d e mountain glaciers rapidly that fifty  are —  the  now  and last  melting  the fifty  and  retreating  i c e record contained years  almost  s a l t water  intrusion  the  of  loss  one  some o f  i n these  them  quite  glaciers  shows  h a v e b e e n much warmer t h a n  y e a r p e r i o d i n 12,000 y e a r s " . "  steadily rising,  —  As a r e s u l t ,  sea  any  other  levels  i n c h per decade t o d a t e , r e s u l t i n g  are in  i n t o f r e s h water a q u i f e r s i n c o a s t a l areas,  coastal  wetland  areas,  the  loss  of  habitable  r e s i d e n t i a l a n d a g r i c u l t u r a l l a n d s , and t h e l o s s o f s o l i d g r o u n d on w h i c h t o c a r r y on b u s i n e s s a s u s u a l .  13  Al  G o r e ( 1 9 9 2 ) , Op.  C i t . ; page  105.  iii)  Why  i s i t important?  The  c r i t i c a l point to understand here i t i s t h a t only small,  o v e r a l l f l u c t u a t i o n s i n mean a n n u a l t e m p e r a t u r e s b u i l t up o v e r t i m e possess  the  potential  environments, "status  quo"  thus or  "Atmospheric explains  to  create  dramatically  equilibrium  Change:  Human  state  completely  altering of  Ecology  whatever  ecological in  new  atmospheric the  current  existence.  In  Disequilibrium",  Rees  that.  L i v i n g t h i n g s e v o l v e i n dynamic r e l a t i o n s h i p w i t h each o t h e r and t h e i r p h y s i c a l e n v i r o n m e n t s . Over g e o l o g i c a l time, this unconscious mutualism has produced an e c o s p h e r e o f i n t r i c a t e s t r u c t u r e a n d r e l a t i o n s h i p . The s t r u c t u r a l components o f t h e e c o s p h e r e i n c l u d e e v e r y t h i n g from simple inorganic chemicals t o e n t i r e ecosystems. T h e s e c o m p o n e n t s do not e x i s t i n s t a t i c i s o l a t i o n b u t a r e dynamically r e l a t e d through the continuous r e c y c l i n g of m a t t e r a n d a s t e a d y t h r o u g h p u t o f e n e r g y . The entire s y s t e m i s d r i v e n by an e x t e r n a l s o u r c e o f e n e r g y , t h e sun. From t h i s p e r s p e c t i v e , i t i s c r i t i c a l to recognize t h a t the ecosphere shares a s i n g u l a r l y important p r o p e r t y w i t h i n d i v i d u a l l i v i n g organisms: a t the whole system l e v e l , the ecosphere i s c o n t i n u a l l y s e l f - o r g a n i z i n g and s e l f producing. The m a j o r c o m p o n e n t s o f t h e e c o s p h e r e a r e i n t e r d e p e n d e n t l y l i n k e d i n a network of t r a n s f o r m a t i o n s a n d p r o c e s s e s whose i n t e g r i t y i s e s s e n t i a l f o r the p r o d u c t i o n and m a i n t e n a n c e o f t h e c o m p o n e n t s t h e m s e l v e s . T h i s type of s e l f - p e r p e t u a t i n g r e l a t i o n s h i p i s d e f i n e d as autopoietic organization.*'* A most i m p o r t a n t i m p l i c a t i o n o f a u t o p o i e t i c o r g a n i z a t i o n s h o u l d a l r e a d y be c l e a r : much of what we have been p l e a s e d t o c a l l "the environment" i s a c t u a l l y the p r o d u c t of l i f e i t s e l f . T h u s , the h i s t o r i c o r g a n i z a t i o n o f the ecosphere i s n e i t h e r i n c o n s e q u e n t i a l nor i n d i f f e r e n t t o change. The removal of key components or the d i s r u p t i o n o f p a r t i c u l a r r e l a t i o n s h i p s c o u l d change the fundamental n a t u r e of the system. We h a v e l o n g known t h a t a g i v e n species requires a particular set of environmental  O r i g i n a l l y f r o m , H. M a t u r a n a a n d F. V a r e l a , (1988) T r e e o f K n o w l e d g e (New S c i e n c e L i b r a r y ; B o s t o n ) ; p a g e 4 2 .  The  c o n d i t i o n s f o r s u r v i v a l , b u t [we] are unaccustomed to thinking that those environmental conditions are themselves dependent on the d i s t r i b u t i o n , abundance, and i n t e r a c t i o n of s p e c i e s . [ E m p h a s i s a d d e d ]  In  contrast to  others,  "natural"  laws,  r e p o r t s t h a t i n d u s t r i a l s o c i e t y has  environment" In  these  Rees always  (1991),  among  regarded  "the  a s a s t o r e h o u s e o f r e s o u r c e s and a s i n k f o r wastes".'^  o t h e r words, "nature [as] a s t a t i c backdrop  t o human a f f a i r s . "  R e e s s t a t e s t h a t , "From t h i s p e r s p e c t i v e , anthropogenic changes i n atmospheric gases are as  mere  p e r c e i v e d as  "externalities"  isolated technical  resulting  from  market  problems or  imperfections".'*  H o w e v e r , a s a r e s u l t o f i ) human a c t i v i t i e s , p a s t and p r e s e n t , ii)  the normal  and  course of ongoing e v o l u t i o n a r y processes, a l b e i t a t  a more r a p i d p a c e t h a n i n t h e p a s t and c e r t a i n l y a more d e l e t e r i o u s one a t t h a t , t h e r e now as  the  new  emerges t h e s p e c t r e of g l o b a l c l i m a t e change  ecological  reality  leading  into  the  twenty-first  century.  I n h e r e n t i n t h i s new warming,  ozone  depletion,  r e a l i t y are c o n t i n u i n g t r e n d s of and  sea  e q u a l l y as s e r i o u s , consequences. Committee  on  the  Environment's  level  rise  among  global  other,  A c c o r d i n g t o Canada's S t a n d i n g 1988  Report,  "The  Changing  Atmosphere: I m p l i c a t i o n s f o r G l o b a l S e c u r i t y " , Humanity i s c o n d u c t i n g an u n i n t e n d e d , u n c o n t r o l l e d , g l o b a l l y p e r v a s i v e e x p e r i m e n t whose u l t i m a t e c o n s e q u e n c e s  W i l l i a m E. R e e s "  Rees  (1990),  ( 1 9 9 0 ) , Op. C i t .  Ibid.  as  c o u l d be Similarly,  second only t o n u c l e a r  now  war."  V i c e - P r e s i d e n t of the U n i t e d S t a t e s , A l Gore w r i t e s  i n h i s book. E a r t h i n t h e  Balance,  the artificial g l o b a l w a r m i n g we are causing t h r e a t e n s f a r more t h a n a few d e g r e e s a d d e d t o a v e r a g e temperatures; i t threatens to destroy the climate e q u i l i b r i u m we have known f o r the e n t i r e h i s t o r y of hiunan civilization. As t h e c l i m a t e p a t t e r n b e g i n s t o c h a n g e , s o t o o do t h e movements o f t h e w i n d and r a i n , t h e f l o o d s a n d d r o u g h t s , t h e g r a s s l a n d s and d e s e r t s , t h e i n s e c t s and w e e d s , t h e f e a s t s and f a m i n e s , t h e s e a s o n s o f p e a c e and war.'»  Gore r e p o r t s S i r C r i s p i n T i c k e l l , a l e a d i n g B r i t i s h diplomat e n v i r o n m e n t a l i s t , s t a t e d i n a'1989 s p e e c h t o t h e R o y a l  and  S o c i e t y of  London t h a t , ... a h e a v y c o n c e n t r a t i o n o f p e o p l e i s a t p r e s e n t i n l o w lying areas along the world's great r i v e r systems. N e a r l y one t h i r d o f h u m a n i t y l i v e s w i t h i n 60 k i l o m e t r e s o f a c o a s t l i n e . A r i s e i n mean s e a l e v e l o f o n l y 25 cm. w o u l d h a v e s u b s t a n t i a l e f f e c t s ... a p r o b l e m o f an o r d e r o f m a g n i t u d e w h i c h no one h a s e v e r h a d t o f a c e ... i n v i r t u a l l y a l l c o u n t r i e s t h e g r o w i n g numbers o f r e f u g e e s w o u l d c a s t a d a r k and l e n g t h e n i n g shadow.'^ Today,  the  developed  ability  and  resources  nations  throughout  the  t o i n s u l a t e most p e o p l e  r i s i n g s e a l e v e l s t o some d e g r e e .  world  possess  from the  However i n t h e p a s t ,  impacts  developing  countries  there  are  few,  i f any,  In the  resources.  " C a n a d a , C o n f e r e n c e S t a t e m e n t i n The C h a n g i n g A t m o s p h e r e : I m p l i c a t i o n s f o r G l o b a l S e c u r i t y ; T o r o n t o , C a n a d a ; 27-30 J u n e , 1988. I n S t a n d i n g C o m m i t t e e on t h e E n v i r o n m e n t ' s R e p o r t o f same t i t l e , p u b l i s h e d by E n v i r o n m e n t C a n a d a , O t t a w a ( J u n e , 1 9 8 8 ) ; page 3. Gore  (1992),  Op.  C i t . ; page  Gore  (1992),  Ibid.;  page  74.  98.  of  populations  a t r i s k m e r e l y r e l o c a t e d t o o t h e r , more h a b i t a b l e g r o u n d s . still  the  capabilities,  o r o t h e r , more h a b i t a b l e g r o u n d s .  regions around the world w i l l change  impacts,  depending nations,  so  largely and  substantial relocation  too  be  will  island  world's  one  meagre  various  i s rich  communities, w i l l  populations,  different  affected differently  the  upon whether  While  or  and  The  poor  h i t , with  their  with  few  economists,  existing  and  layers  of  occurred, another —  even p l a n n e r s cultural  struggle to  no  transitions  hardly the  time  scientists  grapple  which  with  have  the  already  l a y e r o f t r a n s f o r m a t i o n i s a l r e a d y e n g u l f i n g them  t h e r o l e o f c l i m a t e change i n t h e coming c e n t u r y .  need pay  or  possibilities.  So w h i l e s o c i a l and p h y s i c a l s c i e n t i s t s , p o l i t i c a l and  climate  populations,  poor.  be h a r d e s t  resources,  by  f o r "business  as u s u a l " .  Planners  Thus, t h i s i s in particular  s p e c i a l a t t e n t i o n t o t h e i s s u e of g l o b a l c l i m a t e change.  Every l a n d use a p p r o v a l , v i a bylaw, zoning, m u n i c i p a l o r r u r a l p l a n o f d e v e l o p m e n t i s a f f e c t e d and  d i c t a t e d by t h e w e a t h e r s y s t e m  geographical  their  sense.  underpinnings  of  area.  This  i s only  common  H o w e v e r i t i s t a k e n f o r g r a n t e d by n e a r l y a l l p r o f e s s i o n a l s  i n any g i v e n f i e l d t h a t t h e i r p h y s i c a l e n v i r o n m e n t i s a " g i v e n " a static  " f a c t " of l i t t l e  of feeding, housing,  a  specialized  e m p l o y i n g , and  Netherlands,  field  —  consequence i n the o v e r r i d i n g o b j e c t i v e caring for  people.  O v e r t h e p a s t few d e c a d e s C o a s t a l Zone Management h a s as  and  of  planning  i n North  c o a s t a l z o n e management h a s  America.  always been  an  evolved In  the  ongoing  part  o f development.  developers maintain  have their  s t a t e s of North California Emergency  I n Venice,  conveniently lovely,  forgotten  floating,  city.  politicians the  care  and greedy  required  Throughout  to  the coastal  A m e r i c a , i n t h e C a r o l i n a s , i n F l o r i d a , Texas, and  t h e weather  system  planning  has a l s o  planning  alongside  coastal  "special  needs"  emergency  foolish  places.  planning  the-normal occurrence  always  evolved zone  reactive  ravaged  the  coasts.  as a s p e c i a l i z e d f i e l d  management  Unfortunately,  is a  presumption of a c r i s i s  has  to  by  profession,  that i s short-term  service  i t s very based  of  these nature,  upon t h e  i n nature,  an o u t - o f -  o f everyday l i f e and p l a n n i n g i n g e n e r a l .  It  sweeps i n t o s a v e t h e day, h o p i n g a g a i n s t hope t h a t t h e c r i s i s i s never  as bad as  i t could  be, and t h a t  some  responsible  A working d e f i n i t i o n of uncertainty f o rplanners  c o u l d be a s  p a r t i e s h a d t h e good f o r e s i g h t t o p l a n  iv)  What a r e the c r i t i c a l i s s u e s ?  a)  U n c e r t a i n t y ...  maybe  ahead.  follows: A c o n d i t i o n t o w h i c h a p r o b a b i l i t y c o u l d n o t be a t t a c h e d . I f s u c h a p r o b a b i l i t y c o u l d be a t t a c h e d , t h e n u n c e r t a i n t y i s t r a n s f o r m e d i n t o a risk.^° With  regard  uncertainty  t o climate about  change  the process,  and r i s i n g uncertainty  sea l e v e l s about  there i s  t h e range of  ^ J a n e t L. M o o r e a n d A n d r e a L a C a s s e ( 1 9 9 1 ) , "Uncertainty and C o m p l e x i t y : P r o b l e m s Endemic t o Emergency P l a n n i n g i n C o a s t a l Zone Management" ( u n p u b l i s h e d p a p e r a n d p r e s e n t a t i o n . S c h o o l o f Community & R e g i o n a l P l a n n i n g , U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a ; Vancouver).  alternatives,  and  alternatives.  T h e r e i s a l s o some u n c e r t a i n t y a b o u t t h e phenomenon  itself.^'  uncertainty  In the r e a l  certainty.  about  the  w o r l d t h e r e i s no  public  such  response  thing  to  as a b s o l u t e  I t w o u l d be p r e s u m p t i v e o f m a n k i n d t o a r g u e o t h e r w i s e .  I t would e n t a i l t h a t humanity has not o n l y found a l l t h e answers  to  a l l t h e w o r l d ' s problems, b u t i n c r e d u l o u s l y , has t h o r o u g h l y grasped the  depth of t h e problems i n t h e f i r s t p l a c e .  C e r t a i n t y belongs i n  a l a b o r a t o r y p e t r i d i s h where a l l t h e v a r i a b l e s a r e c o n t r o l l e d , infinitely  and  controllable.  The w o r l d ' s l e a d i n g a t m o s p h e r i c s c i e n t i s t s a r e n o t i n d e b a t e over the change.  "facts"  as  t h e y p e r c e i v e them r e g a r d i n g g l o b a l  They a r e i n debate o v e r t h e " a n t i c i p a t e d  impacts" —  when, w h e r e , a n d by how much q u e s t i o n s . They a r e i n f u l l that  human  activities  in this  climate the  agreement  c e n t u r y have p r o f o u n d l y  impacted  upon, and a r e c h a n g i n g , t h e c h e m i c a l c o m p o s i t i o n o f t h e  atmosphere.  And,  convince  to  a  fairly  good  extent, they  number o f w o r l d l e a d e r s t h a t everybody  a)  h a v e managed t o  t h e r e i s a problem,  s h o u l d be d o i n g s o m e t h i n g a b o u t  and  b)  a  that  it.  There a r e b o t h tremendous o p p o r t u n i t i e s as w e l l as c h a l l e n g e s inherent  i n changing climate patterns.  Impacts  b i o p h y s i c a l , s o c i a l and c u l t u r a l , e c o n o m i c , political  aspects.  Any  of  which  can  of  such  include  and i n s i t u t i t i o n a l  easily  be  p e r c e i v e d as  p l a n n e r ' s n i g h t m a r e , because f r a n k l y , people a r e s u b s t a n t i a l l y  ^*  Moore and LaCasse  (1991) , I b i d .  and a  less  r e c e p t i v e t o change t h a n t h e weather, f o r good o r bad. to  Dr. Boutros  "Despite  Boutros-Ghali,  uncertainty  precautionary  Secretary  General,  as t o t h e r a t e o f g l o b a l warming,  decisive  measures  United  are urgently  Nations  According  n e e d e d . "^^  And, they a r e  u r g e n t l y needed because o f t h e i n h e r e n t u n c e r t a i n t y o f o u r a b i l i t y to  understand  and  circumstances.  adapt  Life  t o , i n time,  itself  changing  i s vulnerable,  only  evolutionary  of this  a r e we  certain.  b)  S u s t a i n a b l e Development ... As u r b a n p l a n n e r s  we n e e d t o a s k o u r s e l v e s  what?" t y p e s o f questions change i m p a c t s i n g e n e r a l .  "what i f ? " a n d " s o  regarding current discussions of climate What i f c l i m a t e c h a n g e i s o c c u r r i n g , a s  i n t e r n a t i o n a l s c i e n t i f i c consensus suggests?  So w h a t i f i t d o e s ?  What i f c a r b o n d i o x i d e (COj) d o u b l e s f r o m c u r r e n t l e v e l s , a n d g l o b a l warming i n c r e a s e s ? level rise questions provides  A n d , s o what i f i t d o e s ?  i s inevitable?  And, so what i f i t i s ?  move u s away f r o m p u r e l y us with  F i n a l l y , what i f s e a  a starting  point  crisis-oriented  These types o f t h i n k i n g , and  t o remove t h e v a g u e n e s s  surrounding  environmental debates i n general.  I t i s human  to perceive  "change" as a c r i s i s , a s problematic.^^  often nature  The s i n g u l a r l y  " World Meteorological Organization (1992), Climate Change. E n v i r o n m e n t and Development. W o r l d L e a d e r s ' Viewpoints. ( S e c r e t a r i a t o f t h e World M e t e r o l o g i c a l O r g a n i z a t i o n ; Geneva, S w i t z e r l a n d ) ; F o r w a r d , page x i i . A u n i q u e i n t e r d i s c i p l i n a r y r e s e a r c h p r o j e c t u n d e r t a k e n by the American A s s o c i a t i o n f o r Atmospheric Sciences (1979-80), E n v i r o n m e n t a l and S o c i e t a l Consequences o f a P o s s i b l e C02-Induced  most i m p o r t a n t p o i n t  i s t h a t a l l c o a s t a l areas are  t h e r a v a g e s o f w e a t h e r , and t h e s e a s .  vulnerable  to  They a r e n o t i n h e r e n t l y ,  nor  indefinitely, sustainable geological entities. i s s u e s o f c l i m a t e change are p e r c e i v e d u p o n w h e t h e r one  The  i s r i c h or  impacts  of  than  areas,  geographical  and  different both  rich  still.  opportunities  However,  this  said,  challenges be  affect  poor  nations  areas d i f f e r e n t from  or  importantly,  i t cannot  will  rural  regions  and  as a c r i s i s depends l a r g e l y  change  nations,  Most  the  poor.  climate  differently  Whether o r not  entities, climate to  such  as  islands,  change w i l l  global  over-stressed  produce  society that  urban  overall.  the  human-  induced changes t o the world's p h y s i c a l environment e n t a i l s a narrow window o f  opportunity,  w i t h r e g a r d t o c u r r e n t and urban centres,  While studied  ...  adaptation  many c o n s i d e r a b l e  future populations  particularly  "what t h e  and  i n the  poor perceive  still  challenges,  living within coastal  developing  i n times of  countries.  stress  is rarely  t h e r e i s g e n e r a l agreement t h a t t h e y endure t h e costs".Thus,  we  have t o  stop  looking  at  biggest  issues  urban p l a n n i n g as i f t h e y were t o t a l l y s e p a r a t e ,  and d i s t i n c t ,  issues  environment  and  activities  related  to  the  very  natural  C l i m a t e C h a n g e d i s c u s s e d i n R o b e r t S. Chen, E. B o u l d i n g , S c h n e i d e r , E d i t o r s (1983) , S o c i a l S c i e n c e R e s e a r c h and Change (D. R e i d e l P u b l i s h i n g Company; D o r d r e c h t , B o s t o n ) .  of  from which  and S. Climate  J i m M a c N e i l l , J o h n Cox, D a v i d R u n n a l l s ( 1 9 8 9 ) , CIDA and S u s t a i n a b l e D e v e l o p m e n t . (The I n s t i t u t e f o r R e s e a r c h on P u b l i c P o l i c y ; H a l i f a x , N o v a S c o t i a ) ; pg. 43.  s u p p o r t s a l l human a c t i v i t i e s . to discuss, still as  Despite  recent  global  initiatives  a n d a c t i n a c c o r d a n c e w i t h , g l o b a l c l i m a t e c h a n g e , we  have a fundamental flaw i n our mindset, a d d r e s s i n g  merely  technical  and economic  problems  concerns  requiring  quick-fix  approaches and s o l u t i o n s .  The  issue  of sea l e v e l  rise  i s particularily  b e c a u s e i t a f f e c t s a l l a s p e c t s o f human s o c i e t y f r o m point  of view.  Wet r i c e  lying  c o a s t a l areas i s not sustainable  s a l t water intrudes. for  Coastal  o f any k i n d  natural hazards accelerate  located  infinitely function.  subject  to  i n t h e i r frequency and i n t e n s i t y .  of atmospheric  change.  ecological repercussions  including  pests,  and l o s s o f h a b i t a t and  vulnerable  s p e c i e s o f f l o r a and fauna.  climate.  inundated.  of other  spread o f disease,  has c o n t i n u o u s l y  i n regions  i snot  a r e not s u s t a i n a b l e i f these  a r e j u s t some o f t h e i m p a c t s  There a r e a multitude the  i f w a t e r l e v e l s r i s e , and  Tourism as an economic l i v e l i h o o d  t s u n a m i s , s t o r m s u r g e s and h u r r i c a n e s ,  These  planning  forms o f a g r i c u l t u r e i nlow-  i f b e a c h e s a r e washed away, a n d c o r a l r e e f s  developments  a  R e s i d e n t i a l communities a r e n o t s u s t a i n a b l e  t h e same r e a s o n s .  sustainable  and o t h e r  contentious  T h r o u g h o u t h i s t o r y , human c i v i l i z a t i o n  adapted t h e i r e x i s t e n c e t o t h e v i c i s s i t u d e s of t h e  And h i s t o r y sustainable Therefore,  has already i n form, that only  c u r r e n t human a c t i v i t i e s ,  shown  us n a t u r e  nor u l t i m a t e l y leaves  i s neither  controllable i n  t h e dilemma o f s u s t a i n i n g  i n form and f u n c t i o n .  How we c h o o s e t o  utilize and  existing  physically.  r e s o u r c e s shapes  our f u t u r e h i s t o r y  I f "the past i s a f o r e i g n  r e m a i n s f o r e i g n t e r r i t o r y , w a i t i n g t o be  V)  P r e s e n t a t i o n of  —  socially  country", the  sustained.  Material  T h i s t h e s i s f o c u s e s on t h e p r o b l e m s o f s e a l e v e l r i s e c o a s t a l c i t i e s throughout the w o r l d as a r e s u l t o f g l o b a l change stemming from t h e "greenhouse g l o b a l warming, trend  of  of  effect".  increasing population  urbanization  consequences  are  discussed  contemporary  urban  levels,  growth  and  several  country p r o f i l e s  developed,  and  nations.  Current  presented,  the  still  of  action.  a  working  and  some o f t h e l o c a l  The  range  a d d r e s s t h e s e coming changes form  d e v e l o p i n g urban  circumstances  along with  responses to date.  are included  "list"  i n the climate  The  combination of  and  the  i n subsequent  r e s u l t e d from p a t t e r n s o f economic development Two,  future  increasing  chapters  change  which  as has  t o date. I n Chapter  which  cover both  coastal  anticipated  the  cities  and  impacts  are  p l a n n i n g and  government  of planning responses required  to  i s presented i n Chapter Three, i n the as  a  preliminary  starting  point  for  The i s s u e o f " u n c e r t a i n t y " i n p l a n n i n g i s a g a i n a d d r e s s e d ,  t a k i n g a c l o s e r l o o k a t s p e c i f i c problems, t h e gaps i n and t h e c o n s t r a i n t s t o p r o a c t i v e p l a n n i n g approaches.  knowledge,  Chapter Four  c o n c l u d e s w i t h an a n a l y s i s o f t h e p r o b l e m s , p r o p o s e d s o l u t i o n s ,  and  i n i t i a t i v e s on a g l o b a l l e v e l t o a d d r e s s c l i m a t e c h a n g e i n g e n e r a l .  ^ D a v i d L o w e n t h a l ( 1 9 8 5 ) . The P a s t i s a F o r e i g n C o u n t r y . (Cambridge U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s ; Cambridge, M a s s a c h u s e t t s ) .  and s e a l e v e l r i s e i n p a r t i c u l a r .  This physical  paper  i s n o t about  exploring,  mechanisms o f t h e Greenhouse  i n minute  Effect.  detail,  I t i s n o t about  a r g u i n g whether a q u a n t i t y o f "x" w i l l produce a "y" a f f e c t . paper  merely  outlines  the basic  the  precepts behind global  This  climate  c h a n g e b e c a u s e t h e v o l u m i n o u s s c i e n t i f i c l i t e r a t u r e more a d e q u a t e l y addresses  the scientific  details  and a n a l y s i s  o f t h e problem.  I n s t e a d , t h i s paper d e t a i l s t h e c u r r e n t l y e x p e r i e n c e d problems, as w e l l as those a n t i c i p a t e d , with regard t o sea l e v e l r i s e impacts. This information i n presented i n the context of examining the r o l e o f human a c t i v i t i e s i n c r e a t i n g g l o b a l c l i m a t e c h a n g e , a n d t h e r o l e of p l a n n e r s i n addressing  The  it.  problems and concerns over s e a l e v e l  rise  i n particular  w e r e c h o s e n o v e r o t h e r , e q u a l l y a s s e r i o u s , e n v i r o n m e n t a l a n d human problems a f f e c t i n g p l a n n i n g because, I b e l i e v e , r i s i n g s e a l e v e l s p r o v i d e a more " v i s u a l " example o f a r i s i n g p l a n n i n g dilemmas. loss  of land  appreciated depletion,  upon w h i c h t o l i v e , with  greater  ease  play, than  and work c a n be  i m p l i c a t i o n s o f g l o b a l warming.  visually  can, f o r instance,  o r COj b u i l d - u p , o r d e c r e a s e d o x i d a t i o n —  all  The  ozone serious  I f t h e land beneath your feet i s  v a n i s h i n g , o r i f y o u r d r i n k i n g water i s c o n t a m i n a t e d by i n t r u d i n g s a l t w a t e r , y o u know i t — and  see" u n t i l  immediately.  a l l the "facts"  immediate consequences of i t —  T h e r e i s no n e e d t o " w a i t  are i n .  And, you c a n f e e l t h e  e c o n o m i c a l l y and p o l i t i c a l l y .  Few  o f us  c a n w a l k on  water.  A l s o , the problem of r i s i n g sea widely  recognized  as  one  of  the  l e v e l s i s c u r r e n t l y the  strategic threats  g l o b a l w a r m i n g a s a r e s u l t o f human a c t i v i t i e s . Vice-President  As  most  arising United  from States  A l Gore s t a t e s .  I n t h e c o u r s e o f a s i n g l e g e n e r a t i o n , we a r e i n d a n g e r o f c h a n g i n g t h e makeup o f t h e g l o b a l a t m o s p h e r e f a r more d r a m a t i c a l l y t h a n any v o l c a n o i n h i s t o r y , and t h e e f f e c t s may p e r s i s t f o r c e n t u r i e s t o come. The g l o b a l t e m p e r a t u r e c h a n g e s f o r w h i c h we a r e r e s p o n s i b l e a r e l i k e l y t o be f i v e times l a r g e r than the f l u c t u a t i o n s that produced the L i t t l e I c e Age, f o r e x a m p l e , o r t h e g l o b a l c l i m a t e c h a n g e t h a t l e d t o t h e G r e a t F a m i n e o f 1314-17.^^ According  t o P r o f e s s o r O b a s i , " C l i m a t e and c l i m a t e c h a n g e w i l l  c e r t a i n l y h a v e an much  of  our  planet's  biodiversity, relation  to  i n d u s t r y . "^^  e f f e c t on t h e  f u t u r e s u s t a i n a b l e development of  resources  such  water,  forests,  land  various  sectoral  activities  Therefore,  and  as  those  oceans like  regional  societies change.  planning,  have The  little  as  well  and  specifically  hope t o  r e s u l t c o u l d be,  adequately  ( a s we  to  as  in  agriculture  i t i s argued t h a t i f the p h y s i c a l  w h i c h g o v e r n t h e s e h a b i t a t s c a n n o t be i n c o r p o r a t e d of  relating  and  systems  into discussions  urban respond  planning, to  then  inevitable  have a l r e a d y begun t o s e e ) ,  a  s e r i e s o f c r i s e s compounded by t h e h o p e l e s s n e s s o f a f u t u r e w i t h o u t "other  ^  options".  What h a p p e n s a t a l o c a l  A l G o r e ( 1 9 9 2 ) , Op.  c i t . ; page  level,  in increasingly  74.  " Professor G.O.P. Obasi (1992) , Climate E n v i r o n m e n t and D e v e l o p m e n t . W o r l d L e a d e r s ' V i e w p o i n t s . M e t e r o l o g i c a l S o c i e t y ; G e n e v a ) ; F o r w a r d , page v.  Chancre. (World  urbanized  centres,  escalates  i n t o g l o b a l issues of e q u i t y  The until the  impacts  of  r e c e n t l y we  physical  compounds i n t o r e g i o n a l d y n a m i c s ,  our  d i d not  fundamental consider  environment which  worst-case  scenarios  countries.  On t h e c o n t r a r y ,  political stability cities, areas.  regions  and  f o r the  and  in  our  linkages  supports  urban poor  it) ,  thinking  i s not  i n the  still  journey toward the  at,  and  w h e r e we  limited  around the  world situated  future, with  m i g h t be  headed.  a first  look  to  developing  i t s i g n a l s the d e c l i n e of economic  W i t h t h i s f o r e s h a d o w i n g o f t h e f u t u r e i n m i n d , we  the  (that  of development t o  (not t o mention e n v i r o n m e n t a l v i a b i l i t y ) nations  further  security.  flaw  the  and  in  and  of a l l coastal  now  a t w h e r e we  begin are  CHAPTER SEA  LEVEL RISE IN COASTAL & ISLAND COMMUNITIES  i)  Introduction  a)  Current Conditions: The  TWO  c o u n t r y , c i t y , and  d i s c u s s i o n s of pending  island  sea  p r o f i l e s which f o l l o w focus  level rise  impacts,  and  on  some p l a n n i n g  i n i t i a t i v e s t o date, i n order t o i l l u s t r a t e the p e r v a s i v e problems involved.  The  reasons: share  profiles  F i r s t , both  selected  the developed  common e n v i r o n m e n t a l  centres  which  affected  by  support global  variations).  For  were  problems  both  changes  and  in  sea  example, t h e s e  for  three  the developing  and  economies  chosen  risks  and  as  countries  major c o a s t a l  populations  level  rise  main  that  (with  urban centres possess  are  regional extensive  c o a s t l i n e a r e a s , as w e l l as a r e a s o f l o w - l y i n g t e r r a i n , as p a r t o f t h e i r g e o g r a p h i c a l make-up.  Second,  the  concentrate centres  international  their  development  agencies  continue  d e v e l o p m e n t programmes w i t h i n e x i s t i n g  already  at  risk,  thus  investments  to  to  coastal date  in  i n f r a s t r u c t u r e , as w e l l as community development i n g e n e r a l a r e a t risk.  For  (NICs),  the  this  developed  means  f u t u r e hope, has  and  the  substantial  newly-industrialized countries  economic  a l r e a d y been i n v e s t e d .  urban  development  i n c o a s t a l z o n e s by  Third  World  also  have  concentrated  the  investment, Furthermore,  local bulk  as  as  increasing  governments of  well  their  in  the  economic  a s s e t s i n zones a t r i s k t o r i s i n g sea l e v e l s  Third,  massive  food-producing  (Ince,  areas  i n  1990).  the  c o u n t r i e s , l i k e t h e d e l t a s o f t h e Mekong, t h e Y a n g t z e , are  especially  Furthermore,  vulnerable  many o f t h e s e  to  impacts  of  sea  developing and t h e N i l e  level  rise.  c o u n t r i e s a r e h e a v i l y dependent  t h e i r c o a s t a l resources t o support burgeoning  populations —  upon which  a r e i n c r e a s i n g l y b e i n g c o n c e n t r a t e d i n urban c e n t r e s , f o r example, t h e c i t i e s o f C a l c u t t a , Lagos, R i o , C a i r o , and Bangkok a r e a l l sea  level.  Thus,  geographical  regions  the most  following  profiles  vulnerable  to  represent  rising  sea  near those  levels,  i n c l u d i n g Southeast A s i a , A u s t r a l i a , t h e South P a c i f i c I s l a n d s , t h e Hawaiian regions.  I s l a n d s , t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s , and t h e M e d i t e r r a n e a n The U n i t e d  Nations  s p e c i f i c a l l y c i t e d Bangladesh,  Environment  Program  report  and N i l e (1989)  T h a i l a n d , I n d o n e s i a , The M a l d i v e s ,  P a k i s t a n , E g y p t , Mozambique, The G a m b i a , S e n e g a l , S u r i n a m ( s e e a l s o Table  1) a s t h e t e n d e v e l o p i n g  level  rise.^^  c o u n t r i e s most v u l n e r a b l e t o s e a  ^ Martin Ince (1990), The P u b l i c a t i o n s I n c . ; L o n d o n ) ; page 58.  Rising  Seas  (Earthscan  ^ O r i g i n a l l y c i t e d i n UNEP R e p o r t , " C r i t e r i a f o r A s s e s s i n g V u l n e r a b i l i t y t o Sea-Level Rise: A Global Inventory t o High Risk Areas" ( D e l f t , Netherlands: D e l f t H y d r a u l i c s L a b o r a t o r y , 1989); r e f e r r e d t o b y M a r t i n I n c e (1990) The R i s i n g S e a s . (Earthscan P u b l i c a t i o n s ; L o n d o n ) ; page 58.  Table 1  Ten Countries  Countries  Most V u l n e r a b l e t o Sea L e v e l  Population  Per Capita Income  (million)  (dollars)  Bangladesh Egypt The Gambia Indonesia  114.7  160  54.8 0.8  710 220  184.6  450 300  0.2  Maldives Mozambique Pakistan  15.2  150  110.4  350  Senegal  5.2  510  Surinam  0.4  2,360 840  55.6  Thailand  Rise  Sources: United Nations Environment Programme, Criteria for Assessing Vulnerability to Sea-Level Rise: A Global Inventory to High Risk Areas (Delft, Netherlands: Delft Hydraulics Laboratory, 1989); income and population data from Population Reference Bureau, 1989 World Population Data Sheet, Washington, D.C., 1989.  Source: i n M a r t i n I n c e ( 1 9 9 0 ) . The R i s i n g ( E a r t h s c a n P u b l i c a t i o n s I n c . ; London); page 59.  Seas.  A c c o r d i n g t o r e c e n t s t u d i e s ( Y a p (1989) a n d M a c N e i l l the  processing  and  consumption  of  vast  amounts  of  (1989)), natural  r e s o u r c e s , b o t h renewable and non-renewable, and t h e g e n e r a t i o n o f waste  and p o l l u t i o n  a r e being  increasing  concentrated  d r i v e n by, t h e needs o f e v e r - g r o w i n g u r b a n c e n t r e s . ^ " centres  have  change,  l e a d i n g t o g l o b a l warming  For  t h u s become t h e e n g i n e s o r p e r p e t r a t o r s  the coastal  communities  These  developed  urban  of climate  through t h e greenhouse  i n the less  i n , and  effect.  countries  ^° D e r i v e d from a p a p e r by N o n i t a Yap, E n v i r o n m e n t a 1 Protection i n Developing Countries and Canadian Development A s s i s t a n c e (Ottawa: I n s t i t u t e f o r R e s e a r c h on P u b l i c P o l i c y , 1989), d i s c u s s e d b y M a c N e i l l , e t a l . (1989) i n CIDA a n d S u s t a i n a b l e D e v e l o p m e n t ; (The I n s t i t u t e f o r R e s e a r c h o n P u b l i c P o l i c y ; H a l i f a x , Nova S c o t i a ) ; page 49.  a  multitude  of  issues  arise  with  regard  to  sea  level  compounding e x i s t i n g problems of l a n d l e s s n e s s , p o v e r t y , shelter  and  services,  and  threats  to  national  rise,  inadequate  security.  For  c o a s t a l communities i n the already developed c o u n t r i e s , s u b s t a n t i a l e c o n o m i c and the  community l o s s e s a r e a l s o a m a j o r f a c t o r .  examples which f o l l o w demonstrate the  Therefore  i n t e r a c t i o n of  climate  change w i t h a l r e a d y e x i s t i n g problems f o r c o a s t a l urban c e n t r e s risk  from sea  l e v e l r i s e impacts,  b)  P r o j e c t e d Future C o n d i t i o n s :  at  among o t h e r g r e e n h o u s e f a c t o r s .  W o r l d p o p u l a t i o n l e v e l s c u r r e n t l y s t a n d a t 5.3  billion  people  a c c o r d i n g t o t h e b e s t U n i t e d N a t i o n s e s t i m a t e s , w i t h an i n c r e a s e t o 6.3  b i l l i o n e x p e c t e d by t h e y e a r 2000.  Approximately  45.2  percent  of the w o r l d ' s p o p u l a t i o n i s c u r r e n t l y based i n urban c e n t r e s . the developing with  a  countries t h i s represents  predicted  increase to  f u r t h e r i n c r e a s e t o 3.8 an  increase  year  2 0 0 0 , up  The  2 billion  billion  by  i n urban populations  2025. overall  f r o m t h e c u r r e n t 45.2  important  point  here  is  a b o u t 1.3 by  the  billion  year  51.1  a  represent  percent  by  the  percent.  that  we  are  living  i n c r e a s i n g l y urbanizing w o r l d . F u r t h e r m o r e , approximately the  people  2000, and  These f i g u r e s to  In  in  an  61%  of  w o r l d ' s c u r r e n t p o p u l a t i o n r e s i d e w i t h i n c o a s t a l z o n e s , more  F i g u r e s d e r i v e d f r o m two s o u r c e s : A. L a q u i a n , "The U r b a n C h a l l e n g e : U r b a n i z a t i o n T r e n d s and C h a l l e n g e s i n t h e 1 9 9 0 s " ( C e n t r e f o r Human S e t t l e m e n t s , U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a ; C a n a d a ) ; and J . M a c N e i l l , e t . a l . (1989) CIDA and S u s t a i n a b l e D e v e l o p m e n t . (The I n s t i t u t e f o r R e s e a r c h on P u b l i c P o l i c y ; H a l i f a x , N o v a S c o t i a ) .  specifically level  rise  sponsored  i n major urban (see  by  F i g . 3) .  the  World  centres which In  1985,  an  are vulnerable to  international  sea  conference  Meteorological Organization i n  Villach,  A u s t r i a r e p o r t e d an e x p e c t e d r i s e i n s e a - l e v e l w i t h i n t h e n e x t  50  y e a r s b e t w e e n 20-140 cm c a u s e d by e i t h e r l a n d - b a s e d g l a c i a l m e l t i n g and  through  level  the  rise,  thermal  generally  expansion  a  1  cm  of  rise  oceans.'^  In terms  in sea-level  will  of  sea  cause  the  s h o r e l i n e t o r e t r e a t 50-100 cm, t h e r e f o r e a r i s e o f 20-30 cm i n t h e next  50  years  would  r e t r e a t shoreward on  a  gentle  subsidence landward  by  by 10-30  slope  and  probably  cause  a  sandy  meters.According  (20:1,  horizontal  uplifting,  a  approximately  20  1-meter meters  to rise  (65.6  beach  shoreline  t o Edgerton vertical), would  to  (1991), ignoring  raise  f e e t ) W h e r e  a  tide will  these populations relocate?  W o r l d M e t e r o l o g i c a l O r g a n i z a t i o n (1986) R e p o r t o f t h e I n t e r n a t i o n a l C o n f e r e n c e on t h e A s s e s s m e n t o f t h e R o l e o f C a r b o n D i o x i d e and o t h e r G r e e n h o u s e G a s e s i n C l i m a t e V a r i a t i o n s a n d A s s o c i a t e d I m p a c t s . No. 661. ( V i l l a c h , A u s t r i a ) . E d w a r d B r y a n t (1991) , "Sea L e v e l a n d G r e e n h o u s e : P l a n n i n g f o r c h a n g e " i n A u s t r a l i a n P l a n n e r . M a r c h 1 9 9 1 ; p a g e 28. Bryant i s a geographer a t the U n i v e r s i t y of Wollongong, A u s t r a l i a . He p r o v i d e s a d e t a i l e d d i s c u s s i o n o f measurements, i m p a c t s and planning responses, e s p e c i a l l y with regard to A u s t r a l i a . ^ L y n n e T. E d g e r t o n ( 1 9 9 1 ) . The R i s i n g T i d e . Global Warming a n d W o r l d Sea L e v e l s . ( N a t u r a l R e s o u r c e s D e f e n s e C o u n c i l . I s l a n d P r e s s ; W a s h i n g t o n , D.C. and C o v e l o , C a l i f o r n i a ) ; p a g e 24.  Figure 3  Areas V u l n e r a b l e t o R i s i n g  Sea L e v e l  Source: Environmental Protection Agency  Source: i n M a r t i n Ince (1990). The R i s i n g ( E a r t h s c a n P u b l i c a t i o n s I n c . ; London); page 128. In  addition t o increasing population levels,  Seas.  i ti s currently  a n t i c i p a t e d t h a t more t h a n 28 u r b a n c e n t r e s w i l l become m e g a c i t i e s by  t h e year  2000 w i t h p o p u l a t i o n s o f 25 m i l l i o n  o r more  (as i s  c u r r e n t l y t h e c a s e i n M e x i c o C i t y ) ; 22 o f t h e s e c i t i e s w i l l the developing countries. of  be i n  According t o Aprodicio Laquian, Director  t h e C e n t r e f o r Human S e t t l e m e n t s , a t t h e U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h  Columbia, rapidly, faster". place  " w h i l e m e g a - c i t i e s o f e i g h t m i l l i o n o r more a r e g r o w i n g agglomerations o f f i v e m i l l i o n Thus, t h i s  accelerating  "spreading urbanism pressures  resources f o r these areas. development which,  o r more a r e g r o w i n g  even  a s a way o f l i f e "  will  on t h e p h y s i c a l  environment  and  F u r t h e r m o r e , i t i s u r b a n l i f e s t y l e s and  t o d a t e , have promoted g l o b a l warming  through  e s c a l a t i n g p r o d u c t i o n o f , and a c c u m u l a t i o n s i n , greenhouse gases.  Professor  Obasi,  Secretary-General of  the  World  Meteorological  O r g a n i z a t i o n s t a t e s t h a t , "... c l i m a t e c h a n g e i s one o f t h e c e n t r a l areas of concern which i s p a r t of the current world-wide a t t e n t i o n on  t h e theme o f e n v i r o n m e n t  and  development."^^  The  uncertainty  g e n e r a t e d by c l i m a t e change, i n c r e a s i n g p o p u l a t i o n l e v e l s , and t h e e v o l u t i o n o f m e g a c i t i e s adds c o n s i d e r a b l y t o t h e c u r r e n t d e b a t e o f s u s t a i n a b l e development,  ii)  C i t y and The  f o r p r e s e n t and f u t u r e  generations.  Country P r o f i l e s  f o l l o w i n g p r o f i l e s r e p r e s e n t a c o l l e c t i v e g l a n c e a t what  i s c u r r e n t l y known, a n d a n t i c i p a t e d , a b o u t t h e i m p a c t s o f s e a l e v e l r i s e upon t h e s e c o a s t a l communities. type  of  The  i n f o r m a t i o n t h e y p r o v i d e because  unique environment, each w i t h  i t s own  physical  social,  environment,  and  circumstances.  Following the p r o f i l e s  length  of  the  impacts  f o r planning  community  at  large,  identifying  i n f r a s t r u c t u r e and economic  profiles differ each p l a c e  i n the  possesses a  problems p e c u l i a r t o political  and  economic  i s a discussion at i n general, key  and  impacts  their  greater  the  global  for  urban  systems i n p a r t i c u l a r .  " G.O.P. O b a s i (1992) i n F o r e w o r d t o C 1 i m a t e Change. Environment and Development. World Leaders' Viewpoints. ( S e c r e t a r i a t o f t h e World M e t e o r o l o g i c a l O r g a n i z a t i o n ; Geneva, S w i t z e r l a n d ) ; page v.  a)  The Developed C o u n t r i e s :  THE UNITED STATES The  United  States  h a s a t o t a l o f 25 c o a s t a l s t a t e s w h i c h a r e  subject  t o sea l e v e l r i s e impacts,  states,  Puerto Rico,  Samoa,  a n d Guam).  characteristics First,  Virgin  (not i n c l u d i n g t h e Great Lakes  Islands,  Although  each  and responses,  Northern Marianas,  coastal  there  t h e shape o f c o a s t l i n e s w i l l  area  American  possesses  are several  unique  common t h e m e s .  be a l t e r e d r e s u l t i n g  i n the  l o s s o f c o a s t a l l a n d and marshes, d i s r u p t i o n o f t r a n s p o r t a t i o n , and eventually  the loss  circulation  will  o f upland  cause increased  and  impeded d r a i n a g e .  the  water w i l l  will  Second,  F i n a l l y , t h e chemical and m i n e r a l  makeup o f  I n many a r e a s , t h e r a t e o f s e d i m e n t a t i o n  I n c r e a s e d s a l t s and c h l o r i d e s w i l l harm  supply f o r local  May  distributed coastal planning the  states  requesting  Resource  to coastal  the drinking  information  governments  from sea l e v e l  have a l r e a d y  i n i t i a t e d studies  Defence i n each  concerning state  were  rise.  and  managers  including studies, plans,  and l o c a l  problems ensuing states  the National  a questionnaire  efforts,  irrigated water  populations.  1986  states  i n tidal flooding,  c r o p s and p o i s o n groundwater, thus d e s t r o y i n g  In  changes  wave a c t i o n , i n c r e a s e d  change.  s l o w down.  areas.  Council of the  and l o c a l  and l e g i s l a t i o n ,  undertaking To d a t e ,  that  to  address  sixteen  coastal  of sea level  rise  and i t s  effects  on t h e i r  coastal  not taken i n t o account programs, "Despite  the the  Klarin  regions.^*  Although sea  i n d e s i g n i n g most c o a s t a l and  magnitude  Hershman r e p o r t of  potential  level  rise  z o n e management  (1990)  concluded  problems,  the  p r e s e n t e d by a s e a l e v e l r i s e a r e n o t u n m a n a g e a b l e " .  and  San  Francisco  respond the  t o sea  Bay  level  Klarin/Hershman  a r e a have  They  rise.^^ report,  Maine, South  a l r e a d y adopted  that  challenges stated  t h a t a number o f l a w s and p o l i c i e s a l r e a d y i n p l a c e c o u l d be t o a d d r e s s t h e p r o b l e m s t h a t must be f a c e d .  was  used  Carolina  policies  which  However, d e s p i t e t h e c o n f i d e n c e o f Edgerton  reports  that  local  studies  have c o n s i s t e n t l y proved t h a t " e f f e c t s [of sea l e v e l r i s e ] w i l l devastating perhaps  throughout  the  coastal  U.S.", t h u s  t h e c o n f i d e n c e e x p r e s s e d by  premature  and  1992  California  and  too o p t i m i s t i c .  and  Hershman  More r e c e n t e v e n t s  i n 1993,  appear t o support the l a t t e r  Klarin  suggesting  among  other  be  that  i s both  i n Florida  southeastern  in  states,  view.  CALIFORNIA Currently,  o v e r 60%  of C a l i f o r n i a ' s  population lives  within  c o a s t a l c o u n t i e s and t h i s p e r c e n t a g e i s e x p e c t e d t o i n c r e a s e .  The  C a l i f o r n i a c o a s t l i n e i s c o m p r i s e d o f c l i f f s , beaches, and a v a r i e t y o f w e t l a n d t y p e s s t r e t c h i n g o v e r 1,100 this  coastline  i s presently  eroding.  miles. Almost  A p p r o x i m a t e l y 86% o f 10%  of the eroding  ^* P. K l a r i n a n d M. Hershman, " R e s p o n s e o f C o a s t a l Zone Management P r o g r a m s t o Sea L e v e l R i s e i n t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s " , C o a s t a l Management 1 8 ( 3 ) , Summer 1990 i n E d g e r t o n (1991) Op. C i t . Edgerton  ( 1 9 9 1 ) , Op.  C i t . ; p a g e 49.  a r e a s have hardened s h o r e l i n e p r o t e c t i v e s t r u c t u r e s , and  additional  s e c t i o n s employ n o n s t r u c t u r a l p r o t e c t i v e methods.  California  has  Washington S t a t e , calculating  a  and  British  relative  u p l i f t m u s t be  geologically  sea  active  Columbia  level  rise,  taken i n t o account.  coastline  i n Canada. local  land  Mateo  uplift,  subsidence  According t o Edgerton  those  still  areas  undergoing  subsidence.  rapid  rates  Edgerton of  areas,  areas; which  impacts w i l l  w i t h the  would  be  g r e a t e s t impact  completely  loose rocky m a t e r i a l .  occur i n areas of r e s i s t a n t , steep coastal  Edgerton  uplift  in  The  San  will  low-lying  Moderately  least  severe coastal  impact  will  cliffs.^*  r e p o r t s "Assuming t h a t a low s e a  y e a r 2050 w o u l d be 0.1 m e t e r , meter,  c o u n t i e s are  occur i n areas w i t h broad beaches o r f r a g i l e  b l u f f s p r o t e c t e d by  The  submergence of  occurring  inundated.  and  reports that  coastal  e x p e r i e n c e beach e r o s i o n , b l u f f r e t r e a t , and  lowland  in  w h i l e t h e a r e a s o f H u m b o l d t and  c o u n t i e s are undergoing  even  does  Therefore i n  R i s i n g T i d e , t h e a r e a s o f Santa B a r b a r a and V e n t u r a c u r r e n t l y undergoing  as  by  the  a m o d e r a t e r i s e by 2 0 5 0 w o u l d be  0.3  a n d a h i g h r i s e by 2050 w o u l d be 0.45  level  meter"  rise  a r e c e n t study  has e s t i m a t e d t h e f o l l o w i n g impacts are l i k e l y t o o c c u r  L y n n e T.  Edgerton  (1991), I b i d ; page  50.  B a s e d o n a s t u d y by t h e C a l i f o r n i a C o a s t a l C o m m i s s i o n , D r a f t R e p o r t ; P l a n n i n g f o r an A c c e l e r a t e d Sea L e v e l R i s e A l o n g t h e C a l i f o r n i a C o a s t , p r e p a r e d by L e s l e y C. E w i n g , J a i m e M. M i c h a e l s , a n d R i c h a r d J . M c C a r t h y , J u n e 26, 1989; p r e p a r e d by t h e s t a f f o f t h e C a l i f o r n i a C o a s t a l Commission t o i n v e s t i g a t e p o s s i b l e e f f e c t s  Sea l e v e l r i s e w i l l e x a c e r b a t e e x i s t i n g e r o s i o n problems and cause e r o s i o n and c l i f f r e t r e a t i n c u r r e n t l y stable areas. C o a s t a l b e a c h e s w i l l be r e d u c e d i n s i z e . C o a s t a l b e a c h r e t r e a t b e t w e e n 30 t o 200 f e e t c a n be e x p e c t e d b y t h e y e a r 2050.  *  I n some a r e a s , 35 t o 100 p e r c e n t o f e x i s t i n g w e t l a n d s c o u l d be l o s t i f d e v e l o p m e n t p r e v e n t s u p l a n d m i g r a t i o n . H i g h e r w a t e r l e v e l s a n d wave f o r c e s w i l l i n c r e a s e t h e u p l i f t i n g f o r c e s on p i e r s and e r o s i o n o f f o u n d a t i o n supports.  *  H a r b o u r s may e x p e r i e n c e g r e a t e r wave a c t i o n , a n d h i g h e r water l e v e l s w i l l a d v e r s e l y a f f e c t l o a d i n g and u n l o a d i n g of c a r g o s h i p s . E x i s t i n g p r o t e c t i v e s t r u c t u r e s such as breakwaters, s e a w a l l s , a n d r e v e t m e n t s w i l l n o t be a b l e t o p r o v i d e t h e i r c u r r e n t l e v e l o f p r o t e c t i o n due t o i n c r e a s e d f o r c e s , e r o s i o n , and overtopping.''^  Throughout result,  t h e American c o a s t a l s t a t e s s i m i l a r  i n particular  t h e San F r a n c i s c o  impacts would  Bay a r e a , t h e  Delaware  E s t u a r y , Massachusetts, Hawaii (see i s l a n d communities d i s c u s s i o n ) , the  surrounding Great  Lakes  districts,  and  Louisiana.  These  i m p a c t s w o u l d a l s o a p p l y , t o v a r y i n g d e g r e e s , up a l o n g t h e e n t i r e Pacific  Northwest  coastline  extending  Canada.  H o w e v e r , a l t h o u g h t h e S a n J u a n de F u c a i s a g e o l o g i c a l l y  active area, the northern Pacific stable  i n terms  of coastal  into  British  Columbia,  Coast has been r e l a t i v e l y  erosion  impacts  than  its'  more  Atlantic  o n t h e C a l i f o r n i a c o a s t f r o m a n a c c e l e r a t e d s e a l e v e l r i s e . The r e p o r t h a d n o t b e e n a p p r o v e d by t h e c o m m i s s i o n a t t h e t i m e o f p u b l i c a t i o n ; E d g e r t o n page 50. *• 50-51.  C a s e s t u d y e x c e r p t f r o m E d g e r t o n ( 1 9 9 1 ) , Op. C i t . ;  pages  c o u n t e r p a r t due t o a s h o r e l i n e comprised o f h a r d r o c k .  CANADA The  following  Canadian p r o f i l e  i s derived  f r o m two r e p o r t s  " P r e l i m i n a r y S t u d y o f t h e P o s s i b l e I m p a c t s o f a One M e t r e R i s e i n Sea  Level  a t Charlottetown, Prince  Edward  Island"  (1988), and  " E f f e c t s o f a One M e t r e R i s e i n Mean S e a - L e v e l a t S a i n t J o h n , New B r u n s w i c k a n d t h e Lower Reaches published (1990) ,  by the  governments  t h e Canadian Canadian  of t h e S a i n t John R i v e r "  Climate Centre.  government  has  (1987),  A c c o r d i n g t o Ince  been  one  of  the  t o t a k e g l o b a l warming s e r i o u s l y , e n g a g i n g i t s F e d e r a l  M i n i s t r y o f t h e Environment t o undertake t h e above s t u d i e s , others. very  among  The two r e p o r t s p r o v i d e us w i t h t h e b e n e f i t o f d e t a i l i n g  specific  other  first  studies  impacts  i m p a c t s upon u r b a n which  of both  general.  provide  sea level  only rise  infrastructure, vaguely  unlike  outlined  and g l o b a l  climate  s o many  anticipated change i n  F o r t h i s r e a s o n , t h e summary o f t h e t w o r e p o r t s b y I n c e  (1990), i s quoted as f o l l o w s : ... [ a 1 m e t e r ] r i s e i n s e a l e v e l w o u l d h a v e e f f e c t s i n c l u d i n g t h e c o m p l e t e i n u n d a t i o n o f some l a n d , e r o s i o n o f l a n d i n w h a t a r e now i n l a n d a r e a s , s a l i n e a t t a c k o n r i v e r s , l a n d a n d g r o u n d w a t e r , a n d i n c r e a s e d f l o o d i n g . The s i z e o f s u c h e f f e c t s depends upon e v e r y t h i n g f r o m t h e d e t a i l e d geology of aquifers t o t h e p r o f i l e s o f r i v e r c h a n n e l s . Both t h e C h a r l o t t e t o w n and t h e S a i n t John . s t u d i e s used s o p h i s t i c a t e d models t o determine the p o s s i b l e e f f e c t s , on t h e b a s i s o f d e t a i l e d m a p p i n g a n d d e c a d e s o f t i d e d a t a . The w o r k c o n c e r n e d i s p r o b a b l y a b e t t e r g u i d e t o t h e f u l l s c a l e o f t h e p r o b l e m t h a n many c o u n t r i e s , e s p e c i a l l y i n t h e T h i r d World, have found i t p o s s i b l e t o produce.  Edgerton  ( 1 9 9 1 ) ; I b i d ; page 7 8 .  The first study finds that i n the C i t y of Charlottetown itself, an array of expensive new waterfront developments would become uninhabitable, i n c l u d i n g a new c o n v e n t i o n c e n t r e a n d a c o u r t h o u s e . S e v e r a l s t r e e t s downtown w o u l d be b e l o w h i g h - w a t e r mark o r s u b j e c t t o f l o o d i n g , a n d a t o t a l o f 225 b u i l d i n g s w o u l d be v u l n e r a b l e t o f l o o d s . The sewage a n d s t o r m d r a i n s y s t e m s would c o l l a p s e d u r i n g s t o r m s , and a t h i g h t i d e — a n d s o w o u l d t h e swimming p o o l . O u t s i d e t o w n , flood problems would affect road causeways and other s t r u c t u r e s . I t may be t h a t t h e s e f l o o d i n g p r o b l e m s c o u l d be e a s e d by b u i l d i n g new p r o t e c t i v e w o r k s , a n d by a l t e r i n g p l a n n i n g p r a c t i c e s t o s h i f t d e v e l o p m e n t away f r o m v u l n e r a b l e a r e a s . H a r d e r t o s o l v e w o u l d be t h e s e a a t t a c k on sewage p i p e s a n d f l o o d c o n t r o l s y s t e m s . The c o a s t a l a r e a a r o u n d S a i n t J o h n c o u l d w e l l be e v e n more r a d i c a l l y a f f e c t e d b y s e a l e v e l r i s e , s i n c e t h e t o w n l i e s on t h e Bay o f F u n d y , w h i c h h a s some o f t h e m o s t s p e c t a c u l a r t i d e s i n t h e * w o r l d . The t i d a l r a n g e t h e r e i s a l r e a d y 8.8m. A Ira r i s e i n s e a l e v e l w o u l d be a c c o m p a n i e d b y a n i n c r e a s e i n t i d a l r a n g e s t o p e r h a p s 8.95m. H i g h e r t i d e s and s e a l e v e l w o u l d mean t h a t t w o o f S a i n t J o h n ' s m a j o r r e s i d e n t i a l s u b u r b s w o u l d be i n u n d a t e d c o m p l e t e l y o r s u b j e c t t o s e v e r e f l o o d i n g . A t t h e same t i m e , t h e c i t y ' s r o a d and r a i l l i n k s w o u l d be s e r i o u s l y a f f e c t e d . There i s a r i s k t h a t l i n k s t o t h e e a s t of t h e c i t y c o u l d be c u t a l t o g e t h e r . F u r t h e r e c o n o m i c damage c o u l d be c a u s e d by t h e l o s s o f k e y c e n t r e s o f e m p l o y m e n t , i n c l u d i n g t h e s h i p y a r d and s u g a r r e f i n e r y . And as a t C h a r l o t t e t o w n , t h e r e i s t h e s e v e r e r i s k t h a t sewage and d r a i n a g e s y s t e m b u i l t on t h e a s s u m p t i o n o f t o d a y ' s s e a l e v e l s w o u l d be u n a b l e t o c o p e . A t S a i n t J o h n t h e r e i s a r i s k t h a t t h e l a g o o n s u s e d t o h o l d t h e c i t y ' s sewage a n d i n d u s t r i a l w a s t e w o u l d be i n u n d a t e d . T h i s w o u l d mean a n i m m e d i a t e r e l e a s e o f l a r g e amounts o f p o l l u t i o n , and w o u l d a l s o c r i p p l e t h e w a s t e s y s t e m s f o r some t i m e . O t h e r p a r t s o f S a i n t J o h n w h i c h c o u l d be s e r i o u s l y a f f e c t e d b y r i s i n g s e a l e v e l s i n c l u d e t h e power s t a t i o n , w h i c h w o u l d be v u l n e r a b l e t o f l o o d i n g , t h e c i t y ' s f r e s h w a t e r s u p p l y , a n d t h e w h a r f a r e a , w h i c h w o u l d be c o m p l e t e l y i n u n d a t e d . T h e s e p r o b l e m s w i l l p r o b a b l y be e x p e n s i v e t o s o l v e , and i n the Canadians' view w i l l call f o r changes t h r o u g h o u t t h e p l a n n i n g p r o c e s s . However, potential problems w i t h i n a s i n g l e modest-sized c i t y are a t l e a s t g e o g r a p h i c a l l y c o n f i n e d . The a u t h o r s o f t h e C a n a d i a n r e p o r t n o t e t h a t t h e r e w i l l a l s o be s e v e r e e f f e c t s a l o n g t h e w h o l e o f t h e Fundy c o a s t . The e f f e c t s on t h e S a i n t J o h n r i v e r i t s e l f m i g h t be l e s s s w e e p i n g b e c a u s e i t s s i z e and shape a r e d e t e r m i n e d e s s e n t i a l l y by t h e f r e s h w a t e r  c o m i n g down i t , b u t e v e n h e r e , i n c r e a s e d p e n e t r a t i o n o f s a l t water might devastate l o c a l f i s h s t o c k s . There would a l s o be f l o o d r i s k s t o prime a g r i c u l t u r a l l a n d w h i c h would c a l l f o r investment i n p r o t e c t i o n and perhaps t h e adoption o f new agricultural practices. Increased f l o o d i n g could also cut the country's biggest a r t e r i a l r o a d , t h e Trans-Canada Highway, w i t h s e v e r e e f f e c t s on the whole road link between C e n t r a l and Atlantic Canada."^  AUSTRALIA Australia landmass  i s called the "island  nearly  surrounded  by  concentrated  the size ocean.  arise  range  due  oceans.  of the United The  country's  States urban  a substantial and  completely  development  has  around t h i s c o a s t a l p e r i p h e r y , s i n c e i t s v a s t i n l a n d  t e r r i t o r i e s a r e mostly coastal  continent" —  The s h e a r  implies a variety  t o climate In  desert.  the  change  literature  size of the continent's  of r e g i o n - s p e c i f i c impacts  interactions with on  sea  level  the  rise  in  will  surrounding Australia,  c o n s i d e r a b l e d i s c u s s i o n i s g i v e n over t o t h e impacts upon t h e Great Barrier  Reef.  current  trend  This of  i s , unfortunately, geographers,  due  marine  I  believe, t o the scientists,  e n v i r o n m e n t a l i s t s f o c u s i n g s e l e c t i v e l y on t h e more p u b l i c l y threats  t o non-human  habitats  (like  coral  reefs).  and popular  Yet  human  s e t t l e m e n t s a r e a t equal r i s k s i n c e they t o o a r e e n t i r e l y dependent upon t h e i r them.  n a t u r a l environment t o p h y s i c a l l y  One c u r r e n t e s t i m a t e  20-30 cm i n t h e n e x t  suggests  50 y e a r s  support  that a rise  and s u s t a i n  i n sea level of  along A u s t r a l i a ' s sandy beach  area  The R e p o r t s w e r e p u b l i s h e d b y t h e C a n a d i a n C l i m a t e C e n t r e i n D o w n s v i e w , O n t a r i o , a n d t h e summary o f t h e s e t w o r e p o r t s a p p e a r s i n M a r t i n I n c e ( 1 9 9 0 ) , The R i s i n g S e a s . ( E a r t h s c a n P u b l i c a t i o n s L t d ; L o n d o n ) ; p a g e s 145-146,  would  cause  coastlines  to retreat  at  crucial  shoreward sites  by  along  10-3 0 the  metres,  "placing  development  Australian  coastline  t h a t much c l o s e r t o t h e i n f l u e n c e o f s t o r m s u r g e s a n d  waves"  In h i s a r t i c l e Planning  "Environmental P r i o r i t i e s and t h e Greenhouse.  a t the Local  Government  Level"  (1991),  Robert  Zehner  r e v i e w e d a 1983 n a t i o n w i d e s u r v e y d i s t r i b u t e d t o d e t e r m i n e w h i c h environmental  i s s u e s were most i m p o r t a n t ,  a t that time,  Government A r e a  (LGAs) c o u n c i l s , a s w e l l a s a s s e s s  which  f o r greenhouse  planning  agendas.'"  The s u r v e y was m a i l e d  Town P l a n n e r completion plentiful  effects  had  appeared  on  their  t o the attention of the Chief  o f 671 s u r v e y s .  Zehner  reports  that,  despite  the  commentary on c l i m a t e change i n A u s t r a l i a i n t h e l o c a l h a l f o f t h e r e s p o n d e n t s s t a t e d t h e r e was "no  r e a l i n t e r e s t " on t h e i r c o u n c i l i n p l a n n i n g change, and t h a t o n l y  f o r long-term  10% o f t h e c o u n c i l s had a c t u a l l y  to the state of preparing  LGAs,  the extent t o  i n 883 LGAs, r e c e i v i n g a 7 6 % r e s p o n s e r a t e w i t h t h e  media a t t h a t time,  revealed  to Local  papers f o r d i s c u s s i o n .  3% o f t h e LGAs h a d i m p l e m e n t e d  progressed  The s t u d y  greenhouse e f f e c t s were e x p e c t e d i n r o u g h l y  but only  climate  also  half of the  planning-related  *^ E d w a r d B r y a n t (1991) . " S e a L e v e l a n d G r e e n h o u s e : P l a n n i n g f o r Change", A u s t r a l i a n P l a n n e r . V o l . 1 (March, 1 9 9 1 ) ; page 28. N o t e : T h i s s u r v e y i s 11 y e a r s o l d a n d a t t h a t t i m e A u s t r a l i a was a l r e a d y d e a l i n g w i t h i m p a c t s o f o z o n e d e p l e t i o n w i t h n a t i o n a l h e a l t h campaigns i n f o r m i n g t h e p u b l i c o f r i s k s sun overexposure.  changes i n p o l i c y a t the time of the  Furthermore, government  the  survey  survey/^  revealed  r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s depended  most  upon  professionals  informal  and  sources  of  i n f o r m a t i o n ( t e l e v i s i o n , newspapers, r a d i o , f r i e n d s and c o l l e a g u e s ) u p o n w h i c h t h e y b a s e d t h e i r k n o w l e d g e o f t h e s u b j e c t . O n l y 215 LGAs were aware o f any  w o r k b e i n g done by  their  own  state  government  departments  i n t h i s a r e a , w i t h k n o w l e d g e o f f e d e r a l g o v e r n m e n t work  being  lower."**  even  However by  1989,  Zehner  probably  have been p o s s i b l e t o a t t e n d a  warming"  or  " c l i m a t e change"  somewhere  in Australia  articles  in  frequently."*'  newspapers  "greenhouse"  conference,  virtually and  Zehner c l a i m s t h i s  every  journals  reports,  seminar,  week  of  " i t would or  or  the  appearing  "benchmark" s u r v e y  "global workshop  year  with  almost  as  demonstrates  t h a t , " w i t h o r w i t h o u t g r e e n h o u s e e f f e c t s , m o s t o f A u s t r a l i a ' s LGAs a r e a l r e a d y concerned about a v a r i e t y of i s s u e s d i r e c t l y r e l a t e d t o the environment,  from drainage t o f l o o d i n g t o erosion"."*  to  concludes,  date,  Zehner  many LGA  councils  unaware o f f e d e r a l i n i t i a t i v e s t o address t h e s e  remain  However  relatively  issues.  R o b e r t Zehner (1991). " E n v i r o n m e n t a l P r i o r i t i e s and t h e Greenhouse: P l a n n i n g a t t h e L o c a l Government L e v e l " , i n A u s t r a l i a n P l a n n e r . V o l . 1 (March, 1991); pages 35-37. Zehner  ^  ( 1 9 9 1 ) , I b i d ; page  Z e h n e r , I b i d . , page  37.  Z e h n e r , I b i d . ; page  38.  36.  b)  The S t i l l Developing C o u n t r i e s :  SOUTHEAST ASIA BANGLADESH I n h e r b o o k . T h e R i s i n g T i d e . G l o b a l Warming a n d S e a L e v e l Rise  (1991), Lynne Edgerton  Bangladesh.  Surrounded  summarizes t h e c u r r e n t  situation i n  by I n d i a on t h e Bay o f B e n g a l ,  Bangladesh  and h o s t s one o f t h e most d e n s e l y p o p u l a t e d c o u n t r i e s i n t h e w o r l d . An  e s t i m a t e d 93 m i l l i o n  people occupy  143,000 s q u a r e  g i v i n g a d e n s i t y o f 650 p e o p l e p e r s q u a r e k i l o m e t r e . largest  city  Khulna  which  with  4 million  have  respectively.  people,  populations  "The r e m a i n i n g  of 86  followed 1.5  Dhaka i s t h e  by C h i t t a g o n g and  million  million  kilometres,  and  people  800,000  a r e evenly  d i s t r i b u t e d throughout the country, b a r e l y s u r v i v i n g on s u b s i s t e n c e agriculture",  as determined  i n a 1983 s t u d y w h i c h  e s t i m a t e d "85  p e r c e n t o f t h e p o p u l a t i o n r e c e i v e d l e s s t h a n t h e 2,12 2 c a l o r i e s p e r day  necessary  population  f o r minimal  subsistence".*'  " i s poor, overcrowded,  o f t e n hungry,  In  summary  the  and growing  - at  t h e r a t e o f 2.5 t o 3.0 p e r c e n t a y e a r " . * "  "Nearly Bengal  delta  80 p e r c e n t system,  o f t h e land  i s made u p o f t h e c o m p l e x  f e d by t h e Ganges, Brahmaputra,  a n d Meghna  D e r i v e d o r i g i n a l l y f r o m G. J a n s e n , R u r a l B a n g l a d e s h ; Competition f o r Scarce Resources. ( B e r g e n , Norway: M i c h e l s e n I n s t i t u t e , 1 9 8 3 ) , i n E d g e r t o n ( 1 9 9 1 ) , Op. C i t . ; p a g e 7 3 . ^ D e r i v e d o r i g i n a l l y from Broadus e t a l . , " R i s i n g Sea L e v e l a n d Damming o f R i v e r s : P o s s i b l e E f f e c t s i n E g y p t a n d B a n g l a d e s h " , i n E f f e c t s o f C h a n g e s i n S t r a t o s p h e r i c Ozone a n d C l i m a t e C h a n g e . V o l . 4, 1986. (UNEP/EPA, New Y o r k ) ; i n E d g e r t o n ( 1 9 9 1 ) ; I b i d , p a g e 171.  rivers.  Agricultural  percent  of  the  Approximately agriculture currently  p r o d u c t i o n o n t h e s e l a n d s makes u p a b o u t 55  country's  85  percent  GDP"  of  (Gross  the  f o rtheir livelihood.  Domestic  people  are  The h e a v i l y u t i l i z e d  These f o r e s t s  Edgerton's  r e p o r t e s t i m a t e s t h a t "a 1-meter s e a l e v e l  11 p e r c e n t  of the nation's crops, thus  p e r c e n t o f t h e GDP.  include  lands are  surges.^'  w i l l a f f e c t approximately 9 percent o f Bangladesh's  crops,  upon  p r o v i d e t h e v u l n e r a b l e low-  l y i n g a r a b l e l a n d w i t h p r o t e c t i o n from storm  affecting  dependent  p r o t e c t e d by dense f o r e s t and mangrove s y s t e m s t h a t l i n e  many o f t h e w a t e r w a y s .  about  Product).  people, destroy  affecting  nearly 6  A 3-meter r i s e w o u l d be much more d e v a s t a t i n g ,  27 p e r c e n t  and about  rise  of the nation's people,  15 p e r c e n t  the indirect  o f t h e GDP.  effects  of  27 p e r c e n t  These  of the  n u m b e r s do n o t  saltwater intrusion  into  the  n a t i o n ' s f r e s h groundwater sources; i n t r u s i o n  c o u l d extend as f a r  a s 480 k i l o m e t r e s i n l a n d ,  i r r i g a t i o n of crops  thereby p r o h i b i t i n g  i n those r e g i o n s " as well.'^ Compounding t h e a d v e r s e i m p a c t s o f s e a l e v e l r i s e on a g r i c u l t u r e , t h e n a t i o n ' s f i s h i n g i n d u s t r y c o u l d l o s e as well. T h e 1.5 m i l l i o n p e o p l e who d e p e n d o n f i s h i n g f o r t h e i r l i v e l i h o o d c u r r e n t l y p r o v i d e t h e n a t i o n w i t h 80 p e r c e n t o f t h e consumed a n i m a l p r o t e i n . Roughly 40 percent of the nation's fishing capacity i s centred i n a r e a s l i k e l y t o be i n u n d a t e d b y a 3 - m e t e r r i s e . While some f i s h i n g may be r e l o c a t e d , t h e s i g n i f i c a n t f r a c t i o n  Edgerton  ( 1 9 9 1 ) , I b i d ; page 7 3 .  Edgerton (1991), I b i d ; pages 177-179.  Ibid,  page  74; from  Broadus  eta l . .  that depends entirely."  on  freshwater  fishing  may  be  lost  S t o r m s u r g e s p o s e a n o t h e r m a j o r t h r e a t t o human l i f e i n Bangladesh. H i s t o r i c a l l y v u l n e r a b l e t o major c y c l o n i c a c t i v i t y , t h e c o u n t r y was h i t i n November 1970 b y a d e v a s t a t i n g s t o r m t h a t k i l l e d upward o f 250,000 p e o p l e [ a n d r e a c h e d 150 km i n l a n d ] A 1985 s t o r m killed 5,000. The c o m b i n e d e f f e c t s o f i n c r e a s e d s t o r m s u r g e s from s e a l e v e l r i s e , t h e d e a t h o f p r o t e c t i v e mangrove b u f f e r z o n e s due t o i n u n d a t i o n , a n d p r o j e c t e d i n c r e a s e s i n s t o r m power due t o t h e g r e e n h o u s e e f f e c t m i g h t s p e l l f u r t h e r d i s a s t e r f o r t h e l o w - l y i n g areas.**  As  to  Bangladesh  be  expected,  i s neither  reports  financially  with the predicted r i s e the  Edgerton  nor  that  socially  i n sea l e v e l .  "the  nation  prepared  Such a r i s e  will  to  of cope  increase  number o f s t a r v i n g p e o p l e i n t h e c o u n t r y a n d f u r t h e r w e a k e n i t s  financial  p o s i t i o n i n the world.  The  t h i s n a t i o n w i l l be c a t a s t r o p h i c .  consequences  of i n a c t i o n i n  B o t h a c l i m a t e c o n v e n t i o n and a  p r o t o c o l c o n c e r n i n g c o o p e r a t i o n and a s s i s t a n c e i n r e s p o n d i n g t o t h e effects  of  Bangladesh's  sea  level  rise  and  global  warming  are  vital  future."**  ^ Edgerton I b i d . ; p a g e 179.  (1991), I b i d . ;  p a g e 74;  from  Broadus  et a l . .  ** Don H i n r i c h s e n ( 1 9 9 0 ) . Our Common S e a s . C o a s t s i n C r i s i s . ( E a r t h s c a n P u b l i c a t i o n s L t d . ; L o n d o n ) ; p a g e 2 1 . NB: Hinrichsen q u o t e s 300,000 ( r a t h e r t h a n 250,000) k i l l e d i n t h e 1970 storm surges. **  Edgerton  (1991), I b i d ;  page  74.  Edgerton  (1991), I b i d ;  page  74.  to  Figure 4  Source:  Bangladesh  Under  Threat  UNEP  E v e n a 50 cm s e a l e v e l r i s e w o u l d i n u n d a t e l a r g e a r e a s o f B a n g l a d e s h . A 2.0-2.5 m e t r e r i s e w o u l d r e a c h n e a r l y t o the country's capital c i t y .  Source:  i n M a r t i n Ince  ( 1 9 9 0 ) ; Op. C i t . ; p a g e 6 9 .  Bl^GKOK, THAILAND With a p o p u l a t i o n o f over 5 m i l l i o n ,  theCity  o f Bangkok i s  s i t u a t e d o n t h e f l o o d p l a i n o f t h e Chao P h r a y a R i v e r , a p p r o x i m a t e l y 25  km  north  of the Gulf  of Thailand.  "The m a j o r i t y  of the  m e t r o p o l i t a n a r e a ( a b o u t 470 km^) e x t e n d s a c r o s s a l o w backswamp a t a n e l e v a t i o n r a n g i n g f r o m 0.5 t o 1.5 m e t r e s a b o v e mean s e a l e v e l . The  area receives considerable r a i n f a l l  d u r i n g monsoon s e a s o n , a  t i m e when t h e Chao P h r a y a R i v e r a l s o r i s e s . has  depended  on a s e r i e s  U n t i l now, t h e c i t y  of canals f o rdrainage into  P h r a y a R i v e r , c o n s t r u c t e d o v e r t h e l a s t 200 y e a r s . " " Ecology that  and Development i n t h e T h i r d World.  "like  suffers flooding  other developing c i t i e s  from problems during  i n the Third  the rainy  rapidly,  reports  I n h i s book. (1988)  World,  states Bangkok  o f water c o n t a m i n a t i o n , a i r p o l l u t i o n , and season.  One o f t h e g r e a t e s t  facing the c i t y i s the e f f e c t of subsidence —  Gupta  Gupta  t h e Chao  that  "since  t h e 1950s  hazards  Bangkok i s s i n k i n g . "  the city  h a s grown  a n d w i t h i t t h e demand f o r w a t e r , w h i c h t o d a t e h a s b e e n  met t o a l a r g e e x t e n t b y t h e t a p p i n g o f g r o u n d w a t e r r e s o u r c e s . The w a t e r o r i g i n a t e s i n s e v e r a l sand and s i l t  aquifers located  within  the s o f t marine sediments i n c l u d i n g h i g h l y compressible c l a y t h a t u n d e r l i e Bangkok." industrial  purposes  T h i s water i s used f o r b o t h d o m e s t i c and  because  water s u p p l i e d by t h e c i t y .  " World.  beds  industries  find  i t cheaper  than t h e  The p r o l i f e r a t i o n o f u n c h e c k e d p u m p i n g  A. G u p t a (1988) . E c o l o g y a n d D e v e l o p m e n t ( R o u t l e d g e ; L o n d o n , New Y o r k ) ; p a g e 62.  i n the Third  of  underground  water  has  led to a  rapid  lowering  of  the  water  t a b l e , w i t h r e s u l t i n g s a l t water i n t r u s i o n t o v a r y i n g degrees.  A m a j o r p r o b l e m i s ground s u b s i d e n c e w h i c h has more r e c e n t l y b e e n c a r e f u l l y m o n i t o r e d , and f o u n d t o r a n g e up t o 14 cm p e r y e a r in  s o u t h - e a s t e r n Bangkok.  f l o o d i n g has  resulted.  j u n c t i o n between were  built  streets. now  on  Both  structural  damage a n d  S t r u c t u r a l damage commonly o c c u r s a t t h e  s t r e e t pavements and b u i l d i n g s . piles  thereby  settling  at  lower  a result  extra  Large  buildings  rates  than  the  Permanent c r a c k s a l o n g t h e pavements and b u i l d i n g s have  become a c h a r a c t e r i s t i c f e a t u r e o f B a n g k o k ' s  As  increased  step  the larger to  be  b u i l d i n g s now  installed  below  urban landscape.  require the addition  the  original  ones,  of  an  sidewalks  d e v e l o p c r a c k s and s c a r p s , w e l l c a s i n g s p r o t r u d e above t h e ground s u r f a c e , a n d w a l l s o p e n i n t o c r a c k s l a r g e r t h a n a p e r s o n ' s arm.^*  G u p t a r e p o r t s t h a t w h i l e some o f B a n g k o k ' s p r o b l e m s a r e f a i r l y e x t r e m e , many o t h e r c i t i e s o f t h e T h i r d W o r l d a r e s i m i l a r l y  located  on c o m p a r a b l e s u b s t r a t u m i n c l u d i n g M e x i c o C i t y , C a l c u t t a ,  Ho-Chi-  Minh C i t y , and J a k a r t a .  He s t a t e s t h a t B a n g k o k h a s now  imposed  a  G r o u n d w a t e r A c t i n a n a t t e m p t t o p l a n and c o n t r o l t h e r a t e o f w a t e r e x t r a c t i o n from beneath the city.^^ how  effectively  i t can  be  f u t u r e r i s e s i n sea l e v e l ,  ^  However i t r e m a i n s t o be  implemented,  as  well  as  seen  accommodate  and a s s o c i a t e d g l o b a l w a r m i n g i m p a c t s .  Gupta  (1988) . I b i d .  Gupta  ( 1 9 8 8 ) , I b i d . ; p a g e 65.  MANILA, & NEGROS, THE PHILIPPINES I n h i s b o o k , O u r Common S e a s . that  "Manila  Bay h a s been  centimetres  a year  (1990),  rising  a t t h e constant  f o r the past  15 y e a r s .  c e r t a i n i f t h i s i s due t o s u b s i d e n c e of  t h e Bay have  been  filled  Don H i n r i c h s e n r e p o r t s rate  Scientists  o f two are  not  o r t h e f a c t t h a t huge p o r t i o n s  i n f o r land  reclamation  projects.  Whatever t h e c a u s e , i t h a s c i t y managers w o r r i e d because t h e c i t y of Manila,  l i k e Bangkok, i s s i n k i n g " . ^  North are  o f M a n i l a , along t h e c o a s t , f i s h farms and r i c e  currently suffering  from  s h a l l o w groundwater s u p p l i e s . International (ICLARM)  Centre  i n Manila,  Australia's  Great  salt  According  f o r Living that  Barrier  water  while  intrusion  into  t o Richardo  Aquatic lessons  Reef A u t h o r i t y over  their  Bina, of the  Resources have  fields  been this  Management drawn  from  problem, t h e  c o a s t a l p r o b l e m s a f f l i c t i n g m o s t T h i r d W o r l d c o u n t r i e s a r e f a r more complicated believes  than  those  confronting t h e Great  i t ' s possible the "entire  region could  be p e r m a n e n t l y a l t e r e d  don't  t h e consequences  know  of  B a r r i e r Reef.  c o a s t a l environment t o a more s a l t y this  process.  Bina  of this  o n e . ... We I t could  be  catastrophic"  Hinrichsen reports that this  i s s u e i s now b e i n g  taken  up b y  ^ Don H i n r i c h s e n (1990) . O u r Common S e a s . C o a s t s i n C r i s i s . ( E a r t h s c a n P u b l i c a t i o n s L t d . ; L o n d o n ) ; page 117. Hinrichsen  (1990),  I b i d ; page 117.  ICLARM  i n conjunction with  (NGOs) t o m o t i v a t e is  other  Non-Governmental  l o c a l p e o p l e t o a c c e p t management p l a n s , w h i c h  seen as fundamental t o t h e success  strategy. that  Similarly,  "local  without  Organizations  o f a n y c o a s t a l management  on t h e i s l a n d o f Negros, H i n r i c h s e n r e p o r t s  communities a r e t a k i n g measures i n t o t h e i r  government o r o t h e r o u t s i d e h e l p , t o conserve  own h a n d s a n d manage  t h e i r c o a s t a l resources"*^.  THE MEDITERRANEAN REGION The well  p r a c t i c a l e f f e c t s o f r i s i n g sea l e v e l s on poor people a r e  illustrated  shores  ,  by r e f e r e n c e t o t h e v a r i e d c o u n t r i e s around t h e  o f t h e Mediterranean,  which touches  some r i c h c o u n t r i e s o f  s o u t h e r n E u r o p e a s w e l l a s p o o r e r n a t i o n s o f N o r t h A f r i c a a n d West Asia.  Work  carried  out f o r the United  Nations  Programme o n s e a l e v e l r i s e i n t h e M e d i t e r r a n e a n  Environment  indicates that the  e f f e c t s o f t h e r i s i n g s e a a r e l i k e l y t o be m u l t i p l i e d b y t h e impact of  increased  North  Africa  precipitation which  with dramatic  continues  an almost  t o suffer  (with t h e exception of from  increased  drought),  effects f o rthe region.  The M e d i t e r r a n e a n and  i n t h e area,  a r e a h a s a l o n g h i s t o r y o f human h a b i t a t i o n  equally  lengthy  history  of being  examined  by  a r c h a e o l o g i s t s a n d o t h e r s c i e n t i s t s i n t e r e s t e d i n t r a c i n g i t s human and p h y s i c a l development. As a r e s u l t , d e t a i l e d r e c o r d s o f i t s s e a l e v e l through ^2  t i m e a r e a v a i l a b l e . These r e c o r d s r e v e a l t h a t  H i n r i c h s e n (1990),  I b i d ; page 1 9 .  rises  i n s e a l e v e l caused by t h e greenhouse e f f e c t , combined w i t h changes due  t o g e o l o g i c a l movements, c o u l d r e s u l t i n s e a l e v e l r i s e s o f 3-  20mm a y e a r  f o r t h e next f i f t y years.  Continuing  changes i n s e a  l e v e l s i n t h e f u t u r e " w i l l be f e l t on s h o r e l i n e s w h i c h a r e a l r e a d y suffering  severely  from  erosion  and from  flooding during  high  storm" i n c l u d i n g t h e N i l e and I t a l y .  A v a r i e t y o f human a c t i v i t i e s h a s h a s t e n e d t h e e r o s i o n o f l a n d around t h e Mediterranean. agricultural  F o r i n s t a n c e , t h e pumping o f w a t e r f o r  and i n d u s t r i a l  use increases  t h e r a t e a t which t h e  l a n d s u b s i d e s b e c a u s e , o n c e pumped, w i l l r u n o f f t o t h e s e a i n s t e a d of being  r e t u r n e d underground. According  t o Hinrichsen  (1990), i n  some a r e a s t h i s f a c t o r a l o n e i s l o w e r i n g l a n d l e v e l s b y c e n t i m e t r e s a year,  a n d dams b u i l t o n m a j o r r i v e r s t r a p s e d i m e n t w h i c h  normally  make i t s way t o t h e c o a s t , t h e r e b y  wrecking  would  t h e dams a s  w e l l a s i n c r e a s i n g e r o s i o n downstream. H i n r i c h s e n b e l i e v e s t h a t i n the  case  of the Nile,  comparatively  20-30cm o f s e a l e v e l  rise  easy t o d e a l w i t h by comparison w i t h t h e s e  which a r e exacerbated food  even  production,  w o u l d be changes,  by t h e i n c r e a s i n g u s e o f c o a s t a l l a n d f o r  housing,  r i s e would cause s e r i o u s  and work; a h a l f a metre o f s e a l e v e l difficulties.*^^  THE NILE, EGYPT Although it  Egypt occupies  a m i l l i o n square kilometers o f land,  i s o n l y t h e 35,000 s q u a r e k i l o m e t e r s *^  Hinrichsen  (1990),  (3.5%) l a n d b a s e a l o n g t h e  I b i d . ; pages 26-39.  Nile  t h a t harbors  the bulk  of the population. For every  k i l o m e t e r a l o n g i t s b a n k s , a p p r o x i m a t e l y 1,400 p e o p l e l i v e ,  square relying  p r e d o m i n a t e l y upon a g r i c u l t u r a l a c t i v i t i e s i n t h e d e l t a t o s u p p o r t themselves  and  Alexandria,  Nile's  entrance  a n d 800,000 massive  thousands traffic.  economy.  t o t h e west,  Mediterranean million  Egypt's  and P o r t  large  Said,  t o t h e Suez C a n a l  respectively),  delta.  of years,  The  The N i l e  (with  straddle  their  cities  t o the east  crops  of  at the  populations of 3  either  has support  sustaining  port  Egypt's  side  of the  people f o r  and c a r r y i n g  boat  H o w e v e r i n t h e l a s t t w e n t y y e a r s i t h a s b e e n r e a l i z e d how  critical  a  role  the Nile  River  has p l a y e d  i n sustaining the  s h o r e l i n e s o f t h e d e l t a from r i s i n g s e a l e v e l s o v e r t h e c e n t u r i e s .  When t h e h i g h  dam  a t Aswan was c l o s e d i n 1 9 6 4 , a b o u t  k i l o m e t r e s up t h e r i v e r , s e d i m e n t The  combined e f f e c t s  level  rise  caused  s u p p l y t o t h e d e l t a was c u t o f f .  of local tectonic  a pronounced  900  subsidence  relative  s u b m e r g e d many c o a s t a l a r e a s . E d g e r t o n  rise  and g l o b a l sea  i n sea l e v e l  (1991) r e p o r t s t h a t  that "While  t h e s u b s i d e n c e and g l o b a l s e a r i s e has been o c c u r r i n g f o r t h e p a s t 7,500 y e a r s , a c o n s t a n t s u p p l y o f s e d i m e n t river  had b u i l t  nullifying suddenly  up t h e d e l t a  t h e adverse  c a r r i e d down t h e g i a n t  a t a comparable  effects".  rate,  effectively  The c o n s t r u c t i o n o f t h e dam  e n d e d t h i s p r o c e s s , a n d t o d a y many c o a s t a l r e s i d e n t s a r e  beginning t o feel the f u l l  i m p a c t o f t h e dam.**  ** D e r i v e d o r i g i n a l l y from Q u a r t e r l y Economic Review o f Egypt (London: Economist P u b l i c a t i o n s , 1985), A n n u a l Supplement. I n E d g e r t o n ( 1 9 9 1 ) , Op. C i t . ; page 72.  Edgerton reports that l e v e l r i s e continue flooding level, product the  approximately (GDP)  nation's  15  land. With a  percent  of  the  arable land w i l l  and  be  percent  of  and  the  gross  in  i s expected to i n t e n s i f y  Edgerton catastrophic  states  land  that with  migration  that,  causing  away  from the  u l t i m a t e r a t e of sea  "Clearly  widespread flooded  such  hunger,  lands.^  l e v e l r i s e , b u t we  g l o b a l r i s e by t h e y e a r 2050".*' is  "a  o f t h e GDP ...  of 3-  will  submerged". coast,  considerably."^*  changes  f o r E g y p t , d e s t r o y i n g much o f t h e  capabilities,  sea  domestic  A l r e a d y , c o n s i d e r a b l e e r o s i o n has o c c u r r e d a l o n g t h e d e l t a i c and  as  12 t o 15 p e r c e n t  20 p e r c e n t  arable  sea  be d i s p l a c e d  1-meter r i s e  s u b m e r g e d " , and  l e v e l , approximately 20  may  country's  w i l l be a f f e c t e d i n some way,  i n sea  affected  current trend of r e l a t i v e  i n E g y p t , 8 t o 10 m i l l i o n  w a t e r s submerge t h e i r  meter r i s e be  i f "the  l a r g e l y unprepared f o r t h i s  would  country's  and  farming  sparking  mass  Much d e p e n d s u p o n  should  assume a  be  the  0.7-meter  E g y p t , l i k e many o t h e r c o u n t r i e s , rise.  D e r i v e d o r i g i n a l l y from J . Broadus e t a l . , " R i s i n g L e v e l and Damming o f R i v e r s : P o s s i b l e E f f e c t s i n E g y p t B a n g l a d e s h " , i n E f f e c t s o f C h a n g e s i n S t r a t o s p h e r i c Ozone G l o b a l C l i m a t e , v o l . 4 (New Y o r k : UNEP/EPA, 1 9 8 6 ) , pp. 165-190) E d g e r t o n ( 1 9 9 1 ) , I b i d . ; p a g e 72.  Sea and and in  D a v i d S u z u k i , "The C h a n g i n g C l i m a t e " , The N a t u r e o f T h i n g s ( T e l e v i s i o n p r o g r a m , M a r c h , 1992) a l s o discussed Egypt's p r o b l e m s i n t h i s r e g a r d . S u z u k i i n t e r v i e w e d f a r m e r s who s t a t e d t h a t c l i m a t e c h a n g e s i n t h e l a s t few y e a r s h a v e s i g n i f i c a n t l y a l t e r e d t h e i r h i s t o r i c a l c a l e n d a r by w h i c h t h e y h a v e a l w a y s p l a n t e d t h e i r crops. Now, y e a r a f t e r y e a r , t h e y f a c e p o o r c r o p h a r v e s t s . *'  Edgerton  (1991),  Op.  C i t . ; page  72,  c)  I s l a n d Communities:  THE SOUTH PACIFIC ISLANDS There  are three  Micronesia,  Melanesia,  distinct  parts  and P o l y n e s i a  t o t h e South covering  Pacific  an ocean  —  area o f  about 41 m i l l i o n square k i l o m e t r e s t a k i n g i n t w e n t y - f i v e c o u n t r i e s . D i s r e g a r d i n g A u s t r a l i a a n d New Z e a l a n d , o n l y 2 p e r c e n t  o f t h e area  i s l a n d , w i t h o n l y s e v e n o f t h e i s l a n d s o v e r 1000 s q u a r e  kilometres  in  Vertebrate  size.**  Dr. John P e r n e t t a ,  Associate  Professor  of  B i o l o g y a t t h e U n i v e r s i t y o f Papua New G u i n e a , r e p o r t s  that  ... t h e p i c t u r e p o s t c a r d image o f t h e S o u t h P a c i f i c i s , i n many p l a c e s , f a l s e . B e h i n d t h e f a c a d e o f p a l m t r e e s waving gently i n t h e breeze i s t h e s t a r k r e a l i t y o f g r i n d i n g p o v e r t y s e t a g a i n s t a b a c k d r o p o f some r e a l l y b a s i c e n v i r o n m e n t a l p r o b l e m s . F o r many P a c i f i c I s l a n d s o c i e t i e s , which had evolved p r a c t i c a l and s u s t a i n a b l e ways to realize their resources. Western style development proved t h e i r downfall.*'  In (1990), resource  h i s book.  O u r Common S e a s .  Coasts  i n Crisis  Hinrichsen  r e p o r t s t h a t i n t h e s t r u g g l e t o modernize t h e i r issues  are, incredibly, often  neglected.  economies  The  island  n a t i o n s d e p e n d p r e d o m i n a t e l y upon f i s h i n g , r a t h e r t h a n a g r i c u l t u r e or  industry,  carried  to sustain  on, as i n F i j i ,  especially  i n river  a f f e c t e d by r i s i n g  themselves.  Any a g r i c u l t u r e t h a t i s  i s done a t l o w a l t i t u d e a b o v e s e a l e v e l ,  d e l t a areas.  However, t h e s e  s e a l e v e l s due t o s e d i m e n t a t i o n  areas a r e also and increased  ** M a r t i n I n c e ( 1 9 9 0 ) , Op. C i t . p a g e 1 0 5 , o r i g i n a l s o u r c e , the A s s o c i a t i o n o f South P a c i f i c Environmental I n s t i t u t e ; Port M o r e s b y , P a p u a New G u i n e a . *'  Hinrichsen  (1990),  Op. c i t . ;  page 63.  river  flooding.™  According  t oa recent  article  i n Ecodecisionp  Leatherman s t a t e s t h a t problems o f s a l t water i n t r u s i o n i n t o t h e ground water supply  i s already occurring i n the Marshall  and  t h a t i n some s m a l l a t o l l s , " t h e l e n s o f f r e s h w a t e r  the  s a l t w a t e r i s now [ i n 1994] o n l y t w o c e n t i m e t e r s  Figure 5  I s l a n d s o f the T r o p i c a l South  Commonwealth of th« _ . Northern Mariana «S"'"* Islands  Islands,  lying  above  deep".''  Pacific  Islands of the Tropical South Pacific  Marshall Islands  Federated States of Micronésie Palau (Belaul  Equator  "^Kiribati-  Nauru ' .>fapua Islands  Tokolau Tuvalu* . Wallis 6 • AmeriMn Futuna•W»!!!'^.Samoa éook . Samoa islands FijioC;" '•' -NJue Tongs  Vanatu.! *1 New • y.: Caledonia \  French Polynesia  "•. •;  AUSTRALIA  NEW ZEALAND  0  1000  1  I  2000  Kilometres  I  Source: Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Wellington, NZ  Source: I n Martin Ince  (1990),  In terms o f both sea l e v e l warming e f f e c t s ,  ''^ States"  Hinrichsen  rise  and other  associated  t h e impacts and problems a r e a s d i v e r s e  i s l a n d s themselves.  70  Op. C i t . ; p a g e 1 0 4 .  Most o f t h e South P a c i f i c ' s  (1990),  Ibid;  5 million  global as the people  page 64.  S t e p h e n P. L e a t h e r m a n " R i s i n g S e a L e v e l s a n d S m a l l i n E c o d e c i s i o n . V o l . 11 J a n u a r y , 1 9 9 4 ; p a g e 5 4 .  Island  are  coastal  atolls,  residents.  Many  including Kiribati,  v u l n e r a b l e t o sea  of  the  Tokelau  level rise.  islands and  are  Tuvalue  really —  coral  areas  In l a r g e r i s l a n d s , l i k e  most  Papua  New  G u i n e a , t h e u r b a n and c o a s t a l p o p u l a t i o n s a r e g r o w i n g more r a p i d l y than those Pacific  i n the  Islands  f o r e s t e d uplands.  share with  Urbanization  virtually  every  i s a trend  region  of  the  the  world.  However, t h e s e s m a l l i s l a n d s , w i t h l i m i t e d s p a c e and r e s o u r c e s ,  can  l e a s t a f f o r d t h e damaging e f f e c t s o f crowded c o a s t s and  sea  rising  l e v e l s . O v e r c r o w d i n g has a l r e a d y r e s u l t e d i n o u t - m i g r a t i o n t o o t h e r P a c i f i c Rim  n a t i o n s , predominately  A 1-2 and  the  t o A u s t r a l i a and  New  Zealand-  meter r i s e i n sea l e v e l would r e s u l t i n T u v a l u , Marshall  populations  Islands  forced  to  being  move t o  swamped higher,  or  under  dryer  water,  i s l a n d s or  G u i n e a ' s 17,000km c o a s t l i n e , i n u n d a t i n g f l o o d p l a i n s and  into  water  tables,  as  would  well  as  m a s s i v e c o a s t a l e r o s i o n . I n sum, g o v e r n m e n t w o u l d be i n u n d a t e d ,  lead to  the  levels,  remaining  of  saltwater intrusions  waterlogging  of  soils,  a l l p r i n c i p a l towns and c e n t r e s  and of  f o r c i n g r e l o c a t i o n of a l l industry,  commerce, a n d g o v e r n m e n t a c t i v i t i e s . sea  quarter  the  P a p u a New  1-meter r i s e  a  to  countries.  deltas. A  f l o o d over  their  mainland  river  R i s i n g seas would  Kiribati  communities  In areas which s u r v i v e r i s i n g would  be  hit  by  exacerbated  weather e f f e c t s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h g l o b a l warming, i n p a r t i c u l a r  the  incidence  the  Earth's  of  severe  storms  becoming  a t m o s p h e r e becomes warmer a n d  M a r t i n Ince  (1990),  Op.  cit.;  even  more  frequent  as  more h u m i d . A c c o r d i n g  page  105.  to  I n c e , t h e "most p r o b a b l e o v e r a l l e f f e c t i s a n i n c r e a s e i n c y c l o n i c w e a t h e r n e a r t h e S o l o m o n I s l a n d s , P a p u a New G u i n e a a n d e v e n New Zealand  itself".  Up t h e b r i g h t s i d e , t h o s e a r e a s w h i c h  s u f f e r from t h i s type o f weather, l i k e F i j i significantly  currently  a n d T o n g a , may b e n e f i t  f r o m t h e new w e a t h e r p a t t e r n s a s s t o r m p a t t e r n s s h i f t  elsewhere.'^  THE MALDIVES, EAST INDIAN OCEAN The  Republic of theMaldives  l i e s south-west o f I n d i a i n t h e  I n d i a n O c e a n , a n d i s c o m p r i s e d o f a p p r o x i m a t e l y 1,300 i s l a n d s , w i t h a b o u t 275 i n h a b i t e d and a l m o s t for  forestry  o r other  a l l o f which a r e used  purposes.  economically  I t s p o p u l a t i o n o f about  (1985) i s c o n c e n t r a t e d o n t w e n t y - f i v e o f t h e s e  islands,  180,000  including  46,000 o n t h e m a i n i s l a n d o f Male.'"  A c c o r d i n g t o I n c e (1990) , t h e R e p u b l i c o f t h e M a l d i v e s h a s " a n obsessive interest" i n r i s i n g sealevel, since i t s highest pointi s l i t t l e more t h a n t h r e e m e t r e s a b o v e p r e s e n t - d a y study  undertaken  sea l e v e l . A recent  f o r t h e Commonwealth S e c r e t a r i a t r e v e a l e d  that  v i r t u a l l y the whole o f the country's p o p u l a t i o n , i n f r a s t r u c t u r e and economy l i e s b e t w e e n 80cm a n d 2m a b o v e s e a l e v e l . ' ^  Speaking  at a  Commonwealth m e e t i n g i n K u a l a Lumpur, M a l a y s i a (1989) t h e P r e s i d e n t  ^  Ince  (1990) , I b i d . ; p a g e 1 0 6 .  Ince  (1990),  I b i d . ; page 32.  '^ A l a s d a i r Edwards, o f t h e U n i v e r s i t y o f N e w c a s t l e upon Tyne i n t h e UK, c o m p l e t e d t h e s t u d y f o r t h e Commonwealth S e c r e t a r i a t . I n M a r t i n I n c e , (1990) The R i s i n g S e a s ; p a g e 3 2 .  o f t h e M a l d i v e s , Mr.  Maumoon A b d u l  Gayoom, s t a t e d t h a t i f t h e  sea  l e v e l r o s e a s p r e d i c t e d by one m e t e r by 2 050, many c o u n t r i e s i n t h e Commonwealth w o u l d " s i m p l y d i s a p p e a r " .  W i t h most o f h i s n a t i o n ' s  i s l a n d s no more t h a n two m e t e r s a b o v e s e a l e v e l , i n Gayoom's w o r d s , "an e n d a n g e r e d c o u n t r y " .  the Maldives i s ,  Thus, t h e governments  o f t h e South P a c i f i c n a t i o n s have t a k e n a l e a d i n g r o l e i n world  concern  about sea  level  rise,  especially  those  promoting  w i t h i n the  Commonwealth.'*  THE  HAWAIIAN ISLANDS L i k e many o f t h e S o u t h P a c i f i c I s l a n d s , H a w a i i  is built  v o l c a n i c r o c k , w i t h l i m i t e d f r e s h w a t e r r e s o u r c e s , and developable  land.  predominately Tourism  —  mainstay There  around  both  island  the  populations  volcanic  perimeters  l u x u r y c o a s t a l r e s o r t s and  are  i n d u s t r y whatsoever  on  the  of  the  eco-tourism,  islands.  restricted  concentrated  o f t h e economy, f o l l o w e d by p l a n t a t i o n s t y l e  i s no  b o o k . The  The  upon  islands. forms the  agriculture.  In  Edgerton's  R i s i n g T i d e , G l o b a l Warming and W o r l d Sea L e v e l s , (1991)  she r e p o r t s t h e f o l l o w i n g a n t i c i p a t e d impacts o f sea l e v e l r i s e f o r Hawaii's  main c i t y , Honolulu,  over the next  100  years."  * A 0.6-meter sea l e v e l r i s e would have t h e f o l l o w i n g e f f e c t s : major f l o o d i n g t h r e a t s d u r i n g storm c o n d i t i o n s ; l o s s o f W a i k i k i Beach; i n c r e a s e d l o s s e s o f p r o p e r t y t o s t o r m w a v e s ; i n c r e a s e d c o s t o f s h o r e l i n e p r o t e c t i o n ; and  Op.  '* I n c e ( 1 9 9 0 ) , Op. C i t ; p a g e 20.  C i t ; pages 33-34; and H i n r i c h s e n  (1990),  " T h i s s e c t i o n i s b a s e d on t h e f o l l o w i n g s t u d y : E f f e c t s on H a w a i i o f a W o r l d w i d e R i s e i n Sea L e v e l I n d u c e d b y t h e " G r e e n h o u s e E f f e c t " ( H o n o l u l u : H a w a i i C o a s t a l Zone Management P r o g r a m , 1 9 8 5 ) .  temporary d i s r u p t i o n s of t r a n s p o r t a t i o n at Honolulu H a r b o u r , i n t e r n a t i o n a l a i r p o r t , and t h r e e m a j o r s u r f a c e thoroughfares. * A 1.5-meter r i s e w o u l d l e a d t o t h e following r e s u l t s : c o a s t a l h a z a r d s t h r e a t e n i n g s h o r e f r o n t a r e a s , as w e l l a s p r o p e r t i e s up to a m i l e i n l a n d ; a t a minimum t h e e n o r m o u s , i f n o t p r o h i b i t i v e , c o s t of s t a b i l i s i n g the e n t i r e Honolulu w a t e r f r o n t ; l o s s o f v a l u a b l e u r b a n l a n d ; geographic i s o l a t i o n of W a i k i k i ; and p r o l o n g e d d i s r u p t i o n o f s u r f a c e , a i r , and m a r i t i m e t r a n s p o r t a t i o n s y s t e m s . M o r e o v e r , much o f t h e p r e s e n t u r b a n d i s t r i c t may become uninhabitable. Edgerton  further  reports  affected  by  resulting  i n a smaller supply  saltwater  Figure 6  Hawaii's intrusion  groundwater into  of usable  would  groundwater  also  be  aquifers,  groundwater.'*  Measurements of Carbon D i o x i d e C o n c e n t r a t i o n s In the A i r From Mauna Loa, Hawaii 1955  1960  1965  1970  1975  1980  1985  Source: UNEP  Source: Ince  iii)  (1990);  Op.  C i t . ; page  9.  Repercussions As  these  profiles  have  illustrated,  in  conjunction  with  aforementioned increases i n expected l e v e l s of both p o p u l a t i o n urbanization trends  —  particularly  a c t i o n n e e d s t o be s t a r t e d now  Edgerton  (1991),  Op.  i n vulnerable  coastal  areas,  to avoid worst-case scenarios.  C i t . ; page  43.  and  As  E d g e r t o n p o i n t s o u t , many o f t h e c o u n t r i e s c u r r e n t l y w i t h o u t p l a n s t o combat s e a l e v e l r i s e " w i l l e x p e r i e n c e s e v e r e e f f e c t s from even a  moderate  rise  Bangladesh.'' in  [ i n sea  levels]",  Impacts from sea l e v e l  the Nile,  t h e Mediterranean,  Pacific regions.  especially  Egypt  and  r i s e are already being  felt  and t h e South  American  and South  T e m p o r a r y c l i m a t e c h a n g e s e x p e r i e n c e d i n 1982-3  a l o n g t h e w e s t e r n c o a s t o f South America r e s u l t e d i n a r e l a t i v e s e a l e v e l r i s e a l o n g t h e western coast o f South America, c r e a t i n g an E l Nino  effect  wiping  out annual  anchovy  harvests.*°  According to  I n c e ( 1 9 9 0 ) , i m p a c t s w i l l v a r y among d i f f e r e n t r e g i o n s a s a r e s u l t of  " t h e sum [ t o t a l ]  with vertical fluid level  l a n d motions  withdrawal changes  transient factors,  of effects of global  sea l e v e l  due t o t e c t o n i c s ,  (gas, o i l , water)"."  are therefore  local  glacial  Impacts  combined  loading, or  of relative  i n nature,  c l i m a t e phenomena, c o n t i n e n t a l  rise  uplift,  sea  influenced and  by  subsidence  among o t h e r phenomena.  For r e g i o n s l i k e the Caribbean  and t h e South  Pacific  island  n a t i o n s , who h a v e a s h o r t e r a n d l e s s i n t e n s i v e p e r i o d o f i n d u s t r i a l development,  impacts  will  differ  from  mainland  coastal  centres.  H o w e v e r t h e i m p a c t s w i l l be e q u a l l y d r a m a t i c , some w i t h some i s l a n d communities  ''  vanishing altogether.  Edgerton  (1991), I b i d ;  According t o Ince  (1990), t h e  page 72.  *° P.W. G l y n n , " W i d e s p r e a d C o r a l M o r t a l i t y a n d t h e 1982-83 E l N i n o Warming E v e n t " , E n v i r o n m e n t a l C o n s e r v a t i o n 1 1 ( 2 ) (1988): 133-146 i n I n c e ( 1 9 9 0 ) , Op. C i t . ; p a g e 18. Ince  (1990), I b i d . ; •  p a g e 18. • ^  • . .57  r e m a i n i n g i s l a n d n a t i o n s w i l l emerge a s a r e a s much l i k e o t h e r World places  Third  —  f u l l o f e c o n o m i c p o t e n t i a l w h i c h w i l l be h a r d t o a c h i e v e for any number o f r e a s o n s , and made c r i t i c a l l y more d i f f i c u l t by t h e r i s i n g s e a . The p i c t u r e o f d i s a d v a n t a g e d n a t i o n s and p e o p l e b e i n g harmed f u r t h e r by s e a level r i s e s c a u s e d by t h e d e v e l o p e d w o r l d ' s a i r p o l l u t i o n h a b i t s p r e s e n t s p o l i c y makers w i t h t h e s t a r k e s t p o s s i b l e m o r a l i s s u e s — o r should.*^  As not  s t a t e d e a r l i e r i n C h a p t e r One,  been t o  discuss  the  o v e r when, o r by how as  a  fact  that  significant centres,  it  "when" o r "by  political lack  of  In  (and  degrees  change of  the  are how  light  is  at  indeed  world's  risk.  thereof)  I t i s taken  occurring,  and  population,  I t i s almost  that  its  many  of  their  present  a  urban  i r r e l e v a n t to  much" t h e s e h a b i t a t s a r e a t r i s k . of  has  Does  economic  and  r e a l i t i e s , many c o m m u n i t i e s a r e a l r e a d y s u f f e r i n g f r o m a adequate  suitable delay  climate  resources  matter?  arguments  much, c l i m a t e c h a n g e w i l l o c c u r .  percentage  and  discuss  various  the p o i n t of t h i s paper  land,  in  the  s h e l t e r , urban  and  various  services,  human r i g h t s v i o l a t i o n s .  discussion,  decision-making,  accommodate f u r t h e r e n v i r o n m e n t a l d e g r a d a t i o n a n a r c h y and  future social  employment, a c c e s s  may  or  Therefore,  planning  lead to  to  to  political  unrest.  While the case s t u d i e s have a l r e a d y e s t a b l i s h e d the f a c t t h a t the  e f f e c t of r i s i n g sea  in  detail  from  case  to  l e v e l s on T h i r d W o r l d c i t i e s w i l l case,  Ince  further  argues  that  differ "the  e x t e n s i v e l i t e r a t u r e on q u i c k and s l o w d i s a s t e r s i n t h e T h i r d W o r l d suggests  strongly  that  the  i m p o v e r i s h i n g and e n d a n g e r i n g 1979,  effects  will  the people  mainly  involve  l e a s t a b l e t o cope".*^  In  an i n t e r d i s c i p l i n a r y r e s e a r c h team o r g a n i z e d by t h e A m e r i c a n  Association  of  understand,  Atmospheric  Sciences  stressed  the  need  i n a d v a n c e , t h e p o s s i b l e r a n g e o f i m p a c t s o f COj  to  induced  c h a n g e s on human a c t i v i t i e s and w e l f a r e , a s w e l l a s t h e a b i l i t y society  to  ability  deal  of  many  atmospheric  with  such  impacts  the  developed  of  (Chen,  198 3 ) D e s p i t e  countries  to  respond  i n o t h e r words, p o l i t i c a l w i l l .  The  1979  a l s o r e v e a l e d , among a m u l t i t u d e o f more r e c e n t o n e s , t h e slowly developing  change, and  "underscored  and  irreversible  the importance  aspects"  to  I n h i s book. The  of  study "long-  atmospheric  of viewing the problem i n  t h e g e n e r a l c o n t e x t o f o t h e r s o c i e t a l p r o b l e m s and change".**  the  c h a n g e , t h e r e a l s o r e m a i n s t h e more o v e r r i d i n g c o n c e r n  of " w i l l i n g n e s s " ,  term,  of  rapid  societal  R i s i n g Seas (1990), M a r t i n I n c e p o i n t s  o u t t h a t t h e p r o b l e m f o r g o v e r n m e n t s and p l a n n e r s , among o t h e r s , ... i s t h e immense r a n g e o f t h e e x p e c t e d r i s e [ i n s e a l e v e l ] . A t t h e lower f i g u r e , cheap measures w i l l a l l o w  Ince  (1990) , Op.  C i t . ; page  63.  AAAS Panel Report, DOE document and Workshop on E n v i r o n m e n t a l a n d S o c i e t a l C o n s e q u e n c e s o f a P o s s i b l e CO^-Induced C l i m a t e C h a n g e (1980) i n R o b e r t S. C h e n , e t a l . ( 1 9 8 3 ) , S o c i a l S c i e n c e R e s e a r c h a n d C l i m a t e Change. ( R e i d e l P u b l i s h i n g Company; Dordrecht, Boston); Preface.  ** Robert S. Chen (1983) , S o c i a l S c i e n c e R e s e r a c h and C l i m a t e C h a n g e . R o b e r t S. Chen, E l i s e B o u l d i n g , a n d S t e p h e n H. Schneider, E d i t o r s (D. R e i d e l P u b l i s h i n g Company; Dordrecht, Boston); Preface.  e x t e n s i v e a r e a s t o be p r o t e c t e d . A t t h e u p p e r limit, a r e a s o f l a n d w h i c h h a v e h e l d human p o p u l a t i o n s f o r m i l l e n n i a a r e a l l b u t c e r t a i n t o v a n i s h . ... The m e s s a g e a p p l i e s e q u a l l y i n other p a r t s of the T h i r d World subject to r a p i d g e o l o g i c a l change, e s p e c i a l l y around the Pacific, i n t h e West I n d i e s a n d i n c o u n t r i e s like Indonesia.**  The  principal  change  to  impact  a)  urban  e f f e c t s then,  human  urban  of  settlements  sea are  i n f r a s t r u c t u r e , and  level  rise  discussed b)  and  climate  below  economic  as  they  systems,  as  follows:  a)  Urban I n f r a s t r u c t u r e -  »  Highways, b r i d g e s , waterways, p o r t s , a i r p o r t s , mass transit systems, facilities f o r water supply and hazardous waste storage, and a s s o c i a t e d maintenance systems-  According other  t o Edgerton (1991),  current  funding  strain.  In the developing  to build  this  f o r e i g n a i d programmes, w h i l e unable to c o l l e c t  maintenance  o f them.  perspective, infrastructure result  o f 0.7  meters, coupled  with  e f f e c t s o f c l i m a t e changes, w i l l p l a c e urban i n f r a s t r u c t u r e  under tremendous  part,  a rise  the  i n f r a s t r u c t u r e comes f r o m l o c a l governments  the required Therefore,  impact  of  from  a planning  replace.  and  damages  Damage f r o m s e a l e v e l  i n f r a s t r u c t u r e damage, and  burdens t o r e p a i r and/or  various  a r e , f o r t h e most  revenues needed  environmental  i s overwhelming.  in significant  c o u n t r i e s much o f t h e  huge  t o pay f o r financing to rise  urban will  financial  Increased  salinity  and h i g h e r water  tables  a l s o g e n e r a t e a wide range o f problems f o r c i t y Saltwater will  intrusion  render  into  i n general  infrastructure.  domestic and i n d u s t r i a l  t h e groundwater  unsuitable,  water  supplies  and i t w i l l  corrode  underground  cables  freshwater.  Higher water t a b l e s w i l l a f f e c t b u i l d i n g  lead  and pipework  t o s u b s i d e n c e and cause  resulting Businesses  i n significant and  government  at a faster  further  cracking  will  rate  than  that of  foundations,  shifting  o f foundations,  throughout  the buildings.  buildings  will  continually  d i s r u p t i o n and i n c r e a s e d maintenance and/or r e l o c a t i o n  face  costs.  Figure 7 Three Ways I n Which S a l t Water Can Intrude Into A Freshwater Lens  Ocean  Source; Commonwealth Secretariat  Source: Ince (1990) The R i s i n g P u b l i c a t i o n s L t d . ; London); page 53.  In  Seas  (Earthscan  Bangkok, s u b s i d e n c e from t h e b l o c k i n g o f underground  canal  c h a n n e l s h a s a l r e a d y l e d t o s u b s i d e n c e , damage t o b u i l d i n g s , a n d  water  intrusion  businesses  there  into  buildings  have  installed  from  regular  physical  flooding.  barriers  to  w a t e r seepage.*'  In a d d i t i o n reduced u s e - a b i l i t y of  city  drive  areas  provided  b)  will  there  up  the  price  of  e x i s t s other land options  Some  block  land  out  i n some  alternative  properties,  i n the  place.  first  Economic Systems L o s s o f n a t i o n a l and l o c a l r e v e n u e s f r o m r e d u c t i o n o r d e s t r u c t i o n of t r a d i t i o n a l l i v e l i h o o d s i n f i s h e r i e s , f a r m i n g , and t o u r i s m ; l o s s o f o t h e r n a t u r a l r e s o u r c e s (i.e. f o r e s t s ) ; increased operation and maintenance c o s t s ; reduced c o m p e t i t i v e a b i l i t i e s i n g l o b a l market place; i n t e r f e r e n c e i n the m u l t i p l i e r e f f e c t s normally generated from l o c a l economies; i n c r e a s e d l a n d p r i c e s ; r e b u i l d i n g and/or r e l o c a t i o n c o s t s ; e t c .  O b v i o u s l y , an countries  attack  on t h e  local  e c o n o m i e s , as w e l l as a f f e c t i n g o t h e r economies a r o u n d t h e  world.  Sources  social  of are  revenue  an  attack  which  a f f e c t e d by  According to Schneider  support  on  their  l e s s developed and  services  represents  l o c a l economies of the  consumer  both climate  national  markets  c h a n g e and  sea  and level  rise.  (1983), between  5000 t o 8000 y e a r s ago, e v i d e n c e s u g g e s t s t h a t mean g l o b a l t e m p e r a t u r e s w e r e p e r h a p s 1-2 degrees C e l s i u s warmer t h a n t o d a y ... [ t h e r e f o r e t h e ] important message i s t h a t seemingly s m a l l changes i n g l o b a l temperature can be r e f l e c t e d by l a r g e , r e g i o n a l changes i n temperature and p r e c i p i t a t i o n p a t t e r n s . ... W h i l e s u c h a l t e r a t i o n s a r e n o t n e c e s s a r i l y bad, d e p e n d i n g u p o n t h e n a t u r e o f e c o n o m i c a c t i v i t i e s i n e a c h r e g i o n when t h e climate c h a n g e s , t h e i m p o r t a n t p o i n t i s t h a t we w i l l h a v e t o  *' A v i j i t G u p t a (1988) E c o l o g y and D e v e l o p m e n t i n t h e W o r l d . ( R o u t l e d g e ; L o n d o n , New Y o r k ) ; p a g e 63.  Third  l e a r n t o a d a p t - o r migrate.** Ince  (1990) h a s  decades t o which key away  suggested  solve these activities  from  sea  level  " i t may  [Emphasis added] be  p r o b l e m s by  p o s s i b l e over  a period  a well-designed  programme i n  l i k e g o v e r n m e n t a r e s h i f t e d t o new rise  problems".*'  Ince  of  locations  believes  such  a  programme w o u l d s e r v e t o e n c o u r a g e o t h e r m a j o r e m p l o y e r s t o f o l l o w suit,  thereby  spreading  p r o t e c t i n g e c o n o m i e s and  of  employment  existing  core  economic  unlikely  since  these  and  wealth  centres.  centres  have  economic m u l t i p l i e r s f o r reasons  services at  more  widely"  However,  this  agglomerated  risk from seems  and  by the  "the few  highly  emerged  as  s p e c i f i c t o t h e i r l o c a l e b a s e d on  e x i s t i n g r e s o u r c e s , s k i l l e d l a b o u r , and v a r i o u s o t h e r  institutional  s u p p o r t s y s t e m s ; o t h e r w i s e , w e a l t h and e m p l o y m e n t w o u l d a l r e a d y be more w i d e l y dispersed.'°  F u r t h e r e x a c e r b a t i n g t h e s e m a i n u r b a n i m p a c t s w o u l d be f u r t h e r impacts  u p o n u r b a n s h e l t e r and  s e r v i c e s as r u r a l  farmers  abandon  f a r m i n g a r e a s a f f e c t e d by s a l i n i z a t i o n and f l o o d i n g , r e l o c a t i n g t o t h e a l r e a d y s e a - t h r e a t e n e d c i t i e s , p l a c i n g g r e a t e r demands on u r b a n  ** S t e p h e n H. S c h n e i d e r "CO2, C l i m a t e and S o c i e t y " i n R o b e r t S. C h e n , e t . a l . E d i t o r s (1983) S o c i a l S c i e n c e R e s e a r c h a n d C l i m a t e C h a n g e . (D. R e i d e l P u b l i s h i n g Company; D o r d r e c h t , B o s t o n ) ; p a g e 9.  ^  Ince  ( 1 9 9 0 ) , Op.  C i t . ; page  64.  ^ F o r a e x c e l l e n t d i s c u s s i o n o f how and why some c i t i e s g e n e r a t e w e a l t h w h i l e o t h e r s f a i l , see Jane J a c o b s ( 1 9 8 5 ) , C i t i e s a n d t h e W e a l t h N a t i o n s . ( V i n t a g e B o o k s , Random H o u s e ; New Y o r k ) .  resources  and  employment  political  issues  According  to Ince,  of  opportunities,  landlessness,  thereby  unemployment  heightening and  equity.  these  A b a n d o n e d l a n d s w i l l become " f l o o d g h e t t o s " , and " i n v o l v e a c o n f r o n t a t i o n w i t h the T h i r d World's problems of l a n d l e s s n e s s and t h e u n e q u a l d i s t r i b u t i o n o f l a n d . E v e n more t h a n d e v e l o p e d w o r l d c i t i e s , t h o s e i n t h e T h i r d W o r l d t e n d t o grow i n a s p r a w l i n g and i l l - p l a n n e d manner. For t h e i r p o o r e s t i n h a b i t a n t s the main c r i t e r i o n i s the a v a i l a b i l i t y o f l a n d , h o w e v e r u n s u i t a b l e , and l o s i n g p a r t o f a c i t y t o r i s i n g s e a l e v e l s w i l l s i m p l y mean p u s h i n g such i n h a b i t a n t s i n t o even l e s s s u i t a b l e p l a c e s . The problem h e r e i s i n e q u a l i t y , not r i s i n g sea l e v e l s , but i t i s e x a c e r b a t e d by t h e s e a l e v e l r i s e i s s u e , "  I f t h i s a n a l y s i s i s c o r r e c t , a t t h e e x t r e m e end  of t h i n g s n a t i o n a l  s e c u r i t y becomes an i s s u e , t h r e a t e n i n g t o d i s r u p t t e n u o u s h o l d s political  control  and  civil  obedience,'^  Furthermore,  on  should  I n c e ' s t h e o r y o f " f l o o d g h e t t o s " become a r e a l i t y , a l l t h e  progress  t o d a t e i n a r e a s o f h e a l t h and  severely  taxed,  and  the  wholly  w o u l d be  lost  or  p o p u l a t i o n c o n t r o l w o u l d t a k e on a w h o l e new,  dimension. and  welfare  and  ugly,  As s t a t e d e a r l i e r , w h e t h e r one p e r c e i v e s c l i m a t e c h a n g e  impact  of  sea  u p o n w h e t h e r one  level  rise  i s r i c h or  as  a  "crisis"  or  not  depends  poor.  The p r o b l e m s w h i c h r i c h c o u n t r i e s w i t h m a j o r c a p i t a l i n v e s t m e n t s and w e a l t h y c i t i e s i n c o a s t a l a r e a s f a c e f r o m sea l e v e l r i s e are q u i t e d i f f e r e n t from those of poor c o u n t r i e s whose l a n d i s m o s t l y u s e d f o r subsistence a g r i c u l t u r e , or f o r c i t i e s where a s u b s t a n t i a l p a r t of the p o p u l a t i o n l i v e s i n poverty. For the r i c h , sea l e v e l r i s e means t h e r i s k o f e c o n o m i c l o s s and d i s r u p t i o n , b u t '1  Ince  (1990),  Op,  C i t . ; p a g e s 63-64,  ^ The 1979 AAAS s t u d y a l s o r e c o g n i z e d t h e p o t e n t i a l l i n k o f c l i m a t e c h a n g e i m p a c t s and n u c l e a r war and n a t i o n a l s e c u r i t y . I n C h e n , B o u l d i n g , e t a l . ( 1 9 8 3 ) , op. c i t .  i n t h e T h i r d W o r l d t h e r i s k t o many p e o p l e i s o f d e a t h r a t h e r t h a n bankruptcy.'^ Thus, t h e i m p a c t o f c l i m a t e change, must be c o n s i d e r e d shelter  i n development  and s e r v i c e s  i n particular sealevel  rise,  strategies i nt h e provision of  as a fundamental  component  of sustainable  development.  The  f o l l o w i n g represents  a partial  compilation  of potential  i m p a c t s a s a r e s u l t o f a t m o s p h e r i c c h a n g e , a n d s e a l e v e l r i s e ; many are  c)  already  u n d e r w a y , o t h e r i m p a c t s may s t i l l  Summary o f Known Impacts o f Sea L e v e l Change  Physical  b e unknown.  Rise  Due t o Climate  Environmental Impacts:  *  Flooding  o f c o a s t a l and l o w - l y i n g  terrain;  *  Subsidence  *  Loss o f s o f t r o c k s h o r e l i n e areas and beaches.  *  L o s s o f l a n d , and i n u n d a t e d urban encroaching water;  *  Groundwater  *  Destruction of natural protective shoreline i . e . mangroves;  *  Diminishment and/or d e s t r u c t i o n o f marine  *  R e d u c t i o n o f b i o d i v e r s i t y and n a t u r a l  *  Warmer t e m p e r a t u r e s ;  *  Major s h i f t s i n p r e c i p i t a t i o n b e l t s ;  ( s i n k i n g o f c o a s t a l urban  centres);  and r u r a l  a r e a s by  c o n t a m i n a t i o n by s a l t w a t e r i n t r u s i o n ; ecosystems,  fisheries;  resources;  *  Increased areas;  *  Salinization of agricultural  *  I n c r e a s i n g p r e s s u r e on d i m i n i s h i n g f r e s h w a t e r r e s o u r c e s .  Social,  incidence of pests,  disease  i n agricultural  soils;  Economic, and P o l i t i c a l Impacts:  *  Increased landlessness;  *  Increased  *  Increased health r i s k s ,  *  Loss  *  Loss o f n a t u r a l resources;  *  Threatened  *  Issues of equity;  *  Damage t o i n f r a s t r u c t u r e (roads, bridges, b u i l d i n g s , p o r t s , a i r p o r t s , underground c a b l e s and p i p e s ) ;  *  A l t e r e d growing  *  Contamination  poverty; disease;  of livelihood i n f i s h e r i e s ,  farming,  tourism;  national security;  seasons i n a g r i c u l t u r e ;  o f water f o r domestic  and i n d u s t r i a l use.  CHAPTER THREE PLANNING IN ACTION i)  What i s Planning? What do Planners do? Coastal  zones,  " c o l l i s i o n course"  and t h e i r  resident  with destiny —  populations,  a r e on a  from i n c r e a s i n g and cumulative  impacts o f i n c r e a s i n g greenhouse gases, h i g h e r e a r t h t e m p e r a t u r e s , r i s i n g s e a l e v e l s , beach e r o s i o n , wetland l o s s , populations  and urban development, c o a s t a l e n g i n e e r i n g  upland  loss.  result  o f a n t i c i p a t e d increases  warming  increasing coastal  Therefore,  trends  politicians,  have  and c o a s t a l  i s s u e s o f g l o b a l c l i m a t e change and t h e  t o be  businesses,  i n sea level  addressed  planners,  now  rise —  due t o g l o b a l  by  communities,  and p o l i c y makers a l i k e . A l l  c o a s t a l communities around t h e w o r l d a r e impacted by t h e advent o f rises  i n sea levels,  many o t h e r s  some a r e a s b e i n g  only  t o the point of extinction.  slightly  affected but  The c h a l l e n g e  of coastal  z o n e management w i t h r e g a r d t o c l i m a t e c h a n g e i s s u e s i s n o t l i m i t e d to  regulating  planning. much  sector-specific activities,  I n t h i s context,  more  Therefore,  pervasive planners  nor merely  land-use  c o a s t a l z o n e management f a l l s u n d e r t h e  umbrella  of  "sustainable  development".  and t h e i r r e s p e c t i v e governments u r g e n t l y need  t o g e t a g r i p on t h e f a c t s ,  trends,  and h i s t o r y o f t h e i r  region,  r e v i e w i n g b o t h t h e s h o r t and t h e long-term i m p l i c a t i o n s o f c u r r e n t and p r o p o s e d p l a n s a n d p o l i c i e s p e r t a i n i n g t o t h e i r c o a s t a l  The system  objective of current planning which  sustains  human  activity,  areas.  i s t o promote and p r o v i d e a preserving  and p r o t e c t i n g  r e s o u r c e s w h i l e r e g u l a t i n g human b e h a v i o u r i n o r d e r t o support  society  in  a l l i t s functions,  advent of unanticipated and  climate  needs  change, as  and  continuously  desires.  a r e s u l t of  t e c h n o l o g i c a l developments over the p a s t century,  a weak l i n k  i n the  field  of planning  —  industrial has  that planning  i t s a t t e m p t s t o p e r p e t u a t e t h e s t a t u s quo  The  exposed  itself,  of i t s s o c i e t y ' s  in  values,  r e l i e s u p o n a r e l a t i v e l y s t a t i c n a t u r a l e n v i r o n m e n t , one  i n which  little  sustains  change  society.  occurs  in  the  physical  phenomenon w h i c h  R a r e l y h a v e s i g n i f i c a n t c h a n g e s i n n a t u r a l phenomena b e e n  t a k e n i n t o a c c o u n t , c o n s p i c u o u s by t h e g e n e r a l plans  by  American  e i t h e r government or society.  Planning  businesses,  by  nature  absence of  particularly in  is a  short-term  o f t e n i n the form of r e a c t i v e measures t o p r e v i o u s l y d i s a s t e r s r e s u l t i n g from p r e v i o u s a c t i v i t y . lies  seemingly  government,  beyond  falling  the  control  instead  or  into  long-term  The  the  exercise,  unanticipated  longer  concern  North  of  term  view  planners  or  nether  realm  of  implies  having  both  "futurologists".  Theoretically,  planning  as  c o n t r o l o v e r a s i t u a t i o n , and  an  activity  specific objectives  t o be  achieved.  In short, a plan outlines s p e c i f i c action for a s p e c i f i c condition d e s i g n e d t o p r i m a r i l y s e r v e i m m e d i a t e and its  society.  infinitely function. trying  to  However,  sustainable Thus, the sustain  nature in  form,  challenge current  has  already  nor  proven  ultimately  of planning human  near-future  i n t e r e s t s of to  in  neither  controllable  remains the  activities  be  both  in  dilemma  of  form  and  function while simultaneously changes.  We  h a v e now  a r r i v e d at a s t a t e i n our n a t u r a l environment  t h a t i s t u r b u l e n t i n nature, any  time soon. According  refer  coping with s i g n i f i c a n t environmental  and one  that i s unlikely to  to David Morley  (1986) "by  turbulence  to conditions that exhibit variations outside  expected  disturbances  systems".'"  By  individual  or  that  Morley's  collective  affect  our  definition, experience  economic  the  we  range  and  "turbulence"  reflects  stabilize  of  social  exists  i t , i n any  if  of  the  change,  and  following: *  a c c e l e r a t i n g r a t e s of  change;  f.  The  *  i n c r e a s i n g s c a l e of p e r t u r b a t i o n s or s h i f t s i n conditions;  *  i n c r e a s i n g u n p r e d i c t a b i l i t y of  *  a c o n t i n u i n g sense of  *  frequent c o n f r o n t a t i o n w i t h problems t h a t are of a l e v e l of complexity t h a t makes t h e m inaccessible to normal intervention s t r a t e g i e s ; and  *  a t e n d e n c y f o r i n c r e a s i n g amounts o f t i m e t o be s p e n t on responding to the unintended e f f e c t s of previous actions.'^  current  pending sea we  issues  and  events;  crisis;  debates about g l o b a l c l i m a t e  l e v e l r i s e , meet a l l o f t h e a b o v e c r i t e r i a ,  must c o n c l u d e  that  a)  we  are  indeed  living  with  a  therefore turbulent  e n v i r o n m e n t a l s i t u a t i o n , and b) m o v i n g o u t o f t h e p r e v i o u s  comfort  David Morley "Approaches to Planning in Turbulent E n v i r o n m e n t s " , i n P l a n n i n g i n T u r b u l e n c e ( 1 9 8 6 ) , E d i t e d by D a v i d M o r l e y a n d A r i e S h a c h a r (The Magnes P r e s s , The Hebrew U n i v e r s i t y , J e r u s a l e m , I s r a e l ) ; page 5  zone  of planning  observation"  based  alone,  T h i s means p l a n n e r s  on  analysis"  and  "objective  a n d i n t o one o f " t r a n s i t i o n a l  adjustment".'*  a r e now f a c e d w i t h t h e c h a l l e n g e  of trying to  "respond under circumstances existing  "rational  means u s e d  i n which b e l i e f i n t h e a b i l i t y  b y them  to carry  out such  s i g n i f i c a n t l y undermined by t h e w i d e l y r e c o g n i z e d  tasks  of the  h a s been  tendency f o r the  u n i n t e n d e d outcomes o f a p l a n n i n g s t r a t e g y t o o u t w e i g h t h e p l a n n e d outcomes"  Planning  i s essentially  an  exercise  H o w e v e r , now i t seems we a r e t o s o o n j o i n  i n problem forces with  solving.  t h o s e much  maligned f u t u r o l o g i s t s i n our attempts t o s t a b i l i z e e x i s t i n g o f c h a n g e l o o m i n g o n t h e n e a r h o r i z o n . How s h a l l p l a n n e r s  trends  determine  t h e c o s t s a n d t h e b e n e f i t s o f s u c h an e x e r c i s e when no o n e v a r i a b l e can  be  controlled?  considerable  The  current  degree, t h e challenges  planning  field.  planners  and p o l i c y makers c a n b e s t  situation  reflects  to  a  a l w a y s f a c e d by t h e emergency  I t i s perhaps t h i s type o f p l a n n i n g e x e r c i s e t h a t turn to i n their  attempts t o  d e v e l o p a p r o a c t i v e p l a n n i n g methodology i n a n t i c i p a t i o n o f change, if  not outright c r i s i s .  it  i s never t h e long-term trend t h a t people adapt t o , but rather  "the  extreme  planners  According  of the short-term  t o Warrick  and Riebsame,  fluctuations within  a  since  trend",  c a n draw upon b e h a v i o u r o c c u r r i n g i n " d r o u g h t , f l o o d s , and  o t h e r e x t r e m e w e a t h e r c o n d i t i o n s w h i c h we l a b e l c r i s e s " s i n c e t h e s e  '*  Morley  (1986),  I b i d . ; p a g e 4.  ^  Morley  (1986),  I b i d . ; p a g e 5.  are  t h e " r a w m a t e r i a l s f r o m w h i c h we c a n d r a w c o n c l u s i o n s  what k i n d s o f a d a p t i v e behaviour long-run  In achieve  c o u l d be m o b i l i z e d t o d e a l  about with  change".'*  response  t o t h e new g l o b a l t h i n k i n g r e g a r d i n g e f f o r t s t o  "sustainable  Development  Agency  development", (CIDA)  t h e Canadian  revised  International  i t s policies  guiding i t s  development o b j e c t i v e s f o r developing c o u n t r i e s as s p e c i f i e d i n i t s document " P o l i c y f o r E n v i r o n m e n t a l S u s t a i n a b i l i t y " ( J a n u a r y , 1992). A c c o r d i n g t o t h i s document, a l l f u t u r e development i n i t i a t i v e s a r e to  r e f l e c t the following objectives i n i t s planning  process:  1.  T h e e c o l o g i c a l b a s i s f o r development, t o r e c o g n i z e t h e p r o d u c t i v e p o t e n t i a l and e c o s y s t e m l i m i t s t o d e v e l o p m e n t in a given area;  2.  The economic v a l u e of the environment a n d means f o r r e c o g n i z i n g environmental v a l u e s i n economic d e c i s i o n making ;  3.  T h e r e l a t i o n s h i p s suaong poverty, natural resource consiimption degradation." [Emphasis added]  p o p u l a t i o n dynamics, and environmental  These p o i n t s r e p r e s e n t an e x c e l l e n t f i r s t degree and depth o f t h e problem. used t o determine  step i n r e c o g n i z i n g the  However, what m e t h o d o l o g y w i l l be  t h e answers t o t h e s e concerns?  Will  c o n s i d e r a t i o n s , such a s economic g a i n f o r a few, s t i l l over long-term  issues of environmental  sustainability?  short-term predominate What v a l u e  '* R o b e r t S. C h e n , E l i s e B o u l d i n g a n d S e p h e n H. S c h n e i d e r , E d i t o r s ( 1 9 8 3 ) , S o c i a l S c i e n c e R e s e a r c h a n d C l i m a t e C h a n g e . (D. R e i d e l P u b l i s h i n g Company; D o r d r e c h t , B o s t o n ) ; p a g e 6. " C a n a d i a n I n t e r n a t i o n a l D e v e l o p m e n t A g e n c y ( C I D A ) . (1982) P o l i c y f o r Environmental S u s t a i n a b i l i t y (Government o f Canada; Ottawa).  will  our  s o c i e t y or  especially  others  place  on  as p o p u l a t i o n s c o n t i n u e  destabilize?  As  Boulding  a d a p t a t i o n and  long-term  human  life  i n the  t o e x p a n d and  (1983)  points  out  s o c i e t a l planning are  future,  n a t u r a l systems  "local ...  short-term  very  different  o r d e r s o f phenomena".''*  ii)  the  Uncertainty i n Planning — C o n s t r a i n t s to Planning  Gaps i n Knowledge and  Other  A l o n g w i t h Chen, B o u l d i n g , and S c h n e i d e r  (1983) t h e a u t h o r s o f  American  Sciences  Association  for  Atmospheric  study  also  r e c o g n i z e d t h e d i f f i c u l t y o f communicating l o n g - t e r m t r e n d changes to  planners  (and  policymakers)  accustomed  a s s u m p t i o n s o f s y s t e m s t a b i l i t y , and current  political  juggernaut climate  of  and  economic  ii)  such  as  sea  dealing  with  level  i)  s h o r t - t e r m p l a n s based  agendas.Throwing  uncertainty regarding  changes,  to  specific rise  impacts  among  in  on the  of  global  others,  places  f u r t h e r c o n s t r a i n t s on t h e p l a n n i n g p r o c e s s t o s u s t a i n d e v e l o p m e n t . According t o Yehezkel suppose expected  to  Dror  ( 1 9 9 6 ) , p l a n n i n g a s an a c t i v i t y  i n c l u d e elements  t o produce a  of  risk  "risk-less"  —  plan.'*^  that At  in the  i s not  essence  i t is  present  time.  E l i s e B o u l d i n g ( 1 9 8 3 ) , " S e t t i n g New R e s e a r c h A g e n d a s : A S o c i a l S c i e n t i s t ' s V i e w " i n R o b e r t S. C h e n , E. B o u l d i n g , and S. S c h n e i d e r , E d i t o r s . S o c i a l S c i e n c e R e s e a r c h a n d C l i m a t e Change (D. R i e d e l P u l D l i s h i n g Company; D o r d r e c h t , B o s t o n ) ; p a g e 6. R o b e r t S. Chen, E l i s e B o u l d i n g , and S t e v e n E d i t o r s ( 1 9 8 3 ) , S o c i a l S c i e n c e R e s e a r c h and C l i m a t e R i e d e l P u b l i s h i n g Company; D o r d r e c h t , B o s t o n ) .  Schneider, Change (D.  '"^ Y e h e z k e l D r o r (1986) " P l a n n i n g a s F u z z y G a m b l i n g : A R a d i c a l P e r s p e c t i v e on C o p i n g w i t h U n c e r t a i n t y " i n P l a n n i n g i n T u r b u l e n c e ( 1 9 8 6 ) D a v i d M o r l e y and A r i e S h a c h a r , E d i t o r s (Magnes P r e s s , The  subtle  changes  in  sea  level  rise  or  o c c u r r i n g o v e r a l o n g p e r i o d t i m e may to warrant a l l the  a t t e n t i o n and  including researchers, the  small  and  planning  and  Planners  while  "places  at the  testing  glance,  e x p e n s e demanded by many g r o u p s ,  However i t i s the of  these  i n s i d i o u s cumulative  changes  that  really  d e a l i n g w i t h a d e g r e e and k i n d o f  According  create  greater  uncertainty  the magnitude being  to Morley  (1986) , t h i s  demands f o r t h e  new  global kind  of  experts"  same t i m e t h e phenomena o f s u c h i m p a c t s a r e  severely  technological  a n s w e r s . H o w e v e r Wildavsky i s the highest  his  "consensus  not appear, a t f i r s t  s e r v i c e s of  their  In  general  from p a s t experiences —  a l l pervasive.  uncertainty  in  headaches.  a r e now  that differs and  aspects  policy  change  e n v i r o n m e n t a l a d v o c a t e s , and m o s t r e c e n t l y ,  island nations.  compounding  climate  r i s k of  book.  [exists]  capacities  to  provide  concrete  (1991) w a r n s t h a t t o a s s u m e "no  risk  all".'**  The  Rising  Seas.  among s c i e n t i s t s  Martin  Ince  t h a t g l o b a l sea  states levels  that have  b e e n s t e a d i l y r i s i n g f o r t h e p a s t 100 y e a r s and t h a t g l o b a l w a r m i n g is  likely  century",  to and  accelerate  the  Readings Editors.  Morley  of  this  rise  over  the  next  that,  Hebrew U n i v e r s i t y ; J e r u s a l e m ) ; W3  rate  ( 1 9 8 6 ) , Op.  page  33.  C i t . ; page  3.  A a r o n W i l d a v s k y "No R i s k i s t h e H i g h e s t R i s k o f A l l " i n i n Risk ( 1 9 9 1 ) , T h e o d o r e S. G l i c k m a n , M i c h a e l Gough, (Resources For the Future; Washington, D . C ) ; p a g e 120.  v i r t u a l l y a l l of the p r i n c i p a l s c i e n t i s t s working i n the f i e l d b e l i e v e t h a t t h e t i m e h a s come f o r c o a s t a l p l a n n i n g w i t h regard t o a c c e l e r a t e d sea l e v e l r i s e . Scientists b e l i e v e t h a t a s i g n i f i c a n t l y a c c e l e r a t e d g l o b a l sea l e v e l r i s e i s probable d u r i n g our l i f e t i m e s . ' " ^ He g o e s on t o s t a t e t h a t t h e " p l a n n e r ' s t a s k , t h e n i s t o w o r k o u t as  a  policy  matter  -  a  reasonable  and  prudent  a s s u m p t i o n f o r how  much t h e s e a w i l l r i s e and  like  request,  a  alone,  reasonable not  t h a t we  great  by when"! T h i s seems out  this  information is  n o t e n o u g h . I n d o i n g s o w o u l d m e r e l y p r o v i d e e n d l e s s d e b a t e s as  to  resources  t o any  planning  degree of p r e d i c t a b i l i t y ,  whether or not  can  however f i n d i n g  general  -  s u f f i c i e n t evidence e x i s t s t o warrant the time  required  to  change  current  activities  within  and  coastal  zones.  The for,  f o l l o w i n g summarizes the v a r i o u s c o n s t r a i n t s t o  planning  i m p l e m e n t i n g , and a c h i e v i n g s u s t a i n a b l e d e v e l o p m e n t s t r a t e g i e s  which would a i d planners  i n the task of addressing  sea  level  rise  among o t h e r g l o b a l c l i m a t e c h a n g e i s s u e s : *  S u s t a i n a b i l i t y f a c t o r s (demands on t h e p h y s i c a l l i m i t s o f r e s o u r c e s ) o f i n c r e a s i n g p o p u l a t i o n t r e n d s and demographic c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of these increases s i n c e i t i s estimated t h a t i n e x c e s s o f one t h i r d o f t h e c u r r e n t p o p u l a t i o n r e s i d e s w i t h i n c o a s t a l areas;  *  B o t h d o m e s t i c and f o r e i g n p o l i t i c s , e s p e c i a l l y t h e g e n e r a l unwillingness to s a c r i f i c e present p r o f i t s f o r long-term sustainability; t h e environment as an issue related to e c o n o m i c d e v e l o p m e n t h a s o n l y r e c e n t l y , i n 1993, made i t on t o t h e agenda of i n t e r n a t i o n a l economic summits;  *  D e p r e s s e d g l o b a l e c o n o m i c s t a b i l i t y and p r o d u c t i o n l e v e l s o f the developed countries while simultaneously f a c i n g challenges  Martin Ince (1990) , P u b l i c a t i o n s L t d . ; L o n d o n ) ; page  The 17.  Rising  Seas.  (Earthscan  from r i s i n g t h i r d world  economies;  *  Economic models o f development which f a i l t o i n c l u d e t h e n a t u r a l e n v i r o n m e n t and i s s u e s o f e q u i t y i n t h e b e n e f i t / c o s t a n a l y s i s o f development;  *  H i r i n g t r a d i t i o n a l l y - t r a i n e d economists t o develop costa c c o u n t i n g m e c h a n i s m s f o r e n v i r o n m e n t a l damage ( t h e a t t i t u d e o f t h e e n v i r o n m e n t a s a c o m m o d i t y t o be a u c t i o n e d o f f ) , w h i l e s t i l l r e s i s t i n g t h e need f o r i n t e r d i s c i p l i n a r y " e x p e r t s " and team approaches t o problem s o l v i n g ;  *  Government p o l i c y t h a t i s developed i n c o n s u l t a t i o n w i t h p r i v a t e b u s i n e s s i n t e r e s t s , m o t i v a t e d by p r o f i t a n d s h o r t - t e r m g a i n s a t t h e expense o f i s s u e s o f e q u i t y and l o n g - t e r m system stability;  *  A l a c k o f c o - o r d i n a t e d n a t i o n a l and l o c a l l e v e l p o l i c y o b j e c t i v e s d e v e l o p e d w i t h i n an i n t e g r a t e d o r h o l i s t i c framework; *  *  P r i v a t e business i n t e r e s t s which continue t o overwhelm p u b l i c i n t e r e s t s i n l a n d u s e and o t h e r development p r o p o s a l s ;  *  Competition among v a r i o u s d o n o r a g e n c i e s f o r o v e r s e a s c o n t r a c t s i n the developing countries which complicate the n e g o t i a t i n g process regarding s u s t a i n a b l e development policy objectives;  *  I n the developing countries, t i e d - a i d objectives of foreign a i d programmes t h a t r u n c o n t r a r y t o p o l i c i e s t o i n c o r p o r a t e environmental s u s t a i n a b i l i t y into planning a c t i v i t i e s ;  *  F i n a n c i n g and r e g u l a t i o n s i n l e n d i n g agreements t o l e s s developed countries are not linked to environmental s u s t a i n a b i l i t y p o l i c i e s , n o r t o i s s u e s o f human r i g h t s i s s u e s or e q u i t y ; A l t e r n a t i v e f i n a n c i n g arrangements f o r developing c o u n t r i e s s h o u l d be d e v i s e d t o a l l o w f o r o p p o r t u n i t i e s t o address environmental issues with regard t o f o r e i g n a i d debt;  *  Underdeveloped public education i n awareness commitment t o , i s s u e s l i n k i n g l o n g - t e r m e c o n o m i c with environmental s u s t a i n a b i l i t y ;  *  P u b l i s h e d r e s e a r c h and recommendations o f s p e c i a l committees a r e n o t f u l l y u t i l i z e d i n t h e d e v e l o p m e n t o f new p o l i c i e s o r programs by governments o r t h e b u s i n e s s community, w h i l e simultaneously c a l l i n g f o r more r e s e a r c h t o p r o v i d e "hard e v i d e n c e " and "easy s o l u t i o n s " .  The  c a l l f o rfurther research  o f , and stability  i s both a p o s i t i v e and a n e g a t i v e i n  the planning process.  From a n e g a t i v e v i e w p o i n t  i t can,  and  has  b e e n , u s e d a s b o t h an a r g u m e n t a g a i n s t , and d e l a y t a c t i c , t o t a k i n g present  action  developed. traditional  On  to a  change t h e  positive  way  note,  planning i t does  s e c t o r s o f t h e economy, s u c h  i n t o environmental  g a i n s as new  and  policy  convert  lost  as r e s o u r c e  r o l e s are found  gaps i n e x i s t i n g knowledge have been l e g i t i m a t e l y  from  extraction, i n the  Furthermore,  i d e n t i f i e d as a  hinderance to r e a l l y e f f e c t i v e planning s t r a t e g i e s . l i s t of such  jobs  f o r people  c o n t e x t o f e n v i r o n m e n t a l m o n i t o r i n g and management.  constitutes a partial  making i s  The  following  gaps:  *  Lack of accumulated historical data ( i . e . climate, hydrometeorology & hydrology data available is often incomplete, except i n Mediterranean a r e a where e x t e n s i v e h i s t o r i c a l r e c o r d s have been k e p t ) ;  *  Problems w i t h accurateness of c o l l e c t e d data (the w o r l d i s not a controlled laboratory experiment); debates over m e t h o d o l o g i e s and a n a l y s i s o f c o l l e c t e d s t a t i s t i c s a p r o b l e m ;  *  R i s k A s s e s s m e n t - Time l i n e , p r e d i c t a b i l i t y o f f o r e c a s t i n g t r e n d s w h e r e i n t h e degree o f " u n c e r t a i n t y " i n c r e a s e s as time l i n e s l e n g t h e n . ( F u r t h e r c o m p l i c a t e d by t h e f a c t t h a t t h e "when" and "by how much" c a n n o t be e s t i m a t e d a c c u r a t e l y , h o w e v e r t h e c u r r e n t g u i d e l i n e i s t o a l l o w f o r 0.7 m e t e r r i s e i n s e a l e v e l by 2050)'°*;  *  Whole a r e n a o f r i s k / u n c e r t a i n t y i n d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g p r o c e s s ; should be dealt with directly i n Environmental Impact A s s e s s m e n t s ; some o f t h e u n c e r t a i n t y c a n be r e m o v e d , and certain risks alleviated by increasing monitoring, s u r v e i l l a n c e and s u p e r v i s i o n p r o g r a m s .  The  general public  guidance  and  looks to  i t s government and  policymakers  r e a s s u r a n c e , much t h e same a s c h i l d r e n l o o k t o  p a r e n t s f o r d e c i s i v e n e s s and  certainty.  for their  I t i s very d i f f i c u l t  to  develop  a  process  intellectual Given  the  void  and  concept  e f f e c t i v e plans  iii)  of  making general  of  and  decisions  when  atmosphere of  "change"  d e c i s i o n s be  as  the  operating  environmental  only  imperceptible r e s u l t s and future.  the  problem  how  Coastal  Zone  In  sacrifice  other  of  persistent,  but  seemingly but  whose  n o t be r e a l i z e d f o r many d e c a d e s i n t o t h e  words,  short-term  can  made?  c h a n g e , i s t h e n e e d t o i m p l e m e n t s t e p s now  b e n e f i t s may  an  chaos.  constant,  Decision-making i n P l a n n i n g : The Role of Management i n P l a n n i n g f o r Climate Change Compounding  in  s o c i e t i e s are  and  immediate  being  called  interests  (e.g.  upon  to  preferred  c o u r s e s o f a c t i o n and p r o f i t s ) i n o r d e r t o p r e s e r v e a n d  protect  s u s t a i n a b i l i t y of f u t u r e e c o l o g i c a l systems f o r f u t u r e  generations.  In  their  Ecosystems,  paper,  "Surprise  i n Society"  C.S.  &  Opportunity:  H o l l i n g and  In  Stephen  the  Evolution, Bocking  in  (1991)  s t a t e t h e n e e d t o " a c k n o w l e d g e t h e i n e v i t a b i l i t y o f chancre [ o f ecosystems]  in  [the]  context  of  sustainable  our  development".""  H o l l i n g and B o c k i n g s t a t e t h a t p e o p l e w i l l h a v e t o become t h e i r " a r c h i t e c t s of human  sustainable  endeavour  to  development".  sustain  g o v e r n m e n t p o l i c i e s and  daily  life  their respective  I n sum, will  own  a l l aspects  require  institutions  that  of  a l l  incorporate  i s s u e s o f g l o b a l c l i m a t e change i n o r d e r t o p r o d u c e a c o h e s i v e  C.S. Holling and Stephen Bocking, "Surprise and Opportunity: i n E v o l u t i o n , i n Ecosystems, i n S o c i e t y " i n P l a n e t U n d e r S t r e s s . The C h a l l e n g e o f G l o b a l Change. (1991) E d i t e d by C o n s t a n c e M u n g a l l and D i g b y J . M c L a r e n (The R o y a l S o c i e t y of C a n a d a , O x f o r d U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s ; T o r o n t o ) ; p a g e 236.  and  collective  system  of  management  whereby  the  intended  policy  o b j e c t i v e s o f s u s t a i n a b l e d e v e l o p m e n t f i l t e r down t o e a c h a n d e a c h a s p e c t o f human a c t i v i t y .  Furthermore,  t h i n k i n g and p l a n n i n g w i l l  h a v e t o b e r e c a s t t o encompass a l o n g - t e r m ,  i n t e g r a t e d approach t o  c o a s t a l z o n e management w h e r e i n e c o n o m i c p r o g r e s s a n d e n v i r o n m e n t a l issues  are not only  everybody's  business,  but every  person's  responsibility.  As  f o r planners,  discipline  already  interdisciplinary arising  from  Boulding's societal  there  is a  d o ? " , "what work  global  wisdom,  be  should  designed?"  climate  "local  need  change  short-term  p l a n n i n g a r e ... v e r y  t o a s k , "what i t do?", and  to  address  impacts. adaptation  different  orders  does  "how  the  my  could  problems  To  reiterate  and  long-term  o f phenomena".'"*  What i s r e a l l y n e e d e d i s t h e c r e a t i o n o f a " L i v i n g P o l i c y o r P l a n " —  g e t t i n g i t o f f t h e paper, beyond r h e t o r i c as a l i v i n g  of t h e c o n t e x t i n which decision-making to  be a r i t u a l  abstract  i s done.  component  We d o n ' t w a n t i t  c h e c k l i s t i t e m , n o t a n a f t e r t h o u g h t , n o r one t h o s e  "policy  g u i d e l i n e s " t h a t no one i n t h e f i e l d  a d m i n i s t r a t i o n can g e t a handle  on i t , t h u s p a y i n g  or i n the  i tl i p service  o n l y w i t h o u t a c o n s t r u c t i v e mechanism f o r a c t u a l l y i m p l e m e n t i n g  K n o w i n g w h a t we d o n ' t want i n p l a n n i n g r e s p o n s e s first  step.  Ideally  strategy u t i l i z i n g  Boulding  we want a p r o a c t i v e p l a n n i n g  a team a p p r o a c h .  i sa positive and  To b r i n g i t " a l i v e "  ( 1 9 8 3 ) , Op. C i t . ; page 6.  it.  follow-up requires  that  benefits  and  improvements, obsolescence,  windows  t o examine  of  opportunities  economic  be  and p o l i t i c a l  sought f o r systems f o r  a n d t o t r a i n p e o p l e now t o l o o k a t i n f o r m a t i o n w i t h i n  a c o n t e x t o f c h a n g e , n o t t h e norm o r s t a t u s q u o , n o t " b u s i n e s s a s usual".  Planners  organizations society  thinking old  critical  change  together  to initiating  on e v e r y o n e ' s  about i t ,  adage  individuals,  institutions,  ( p u b l i c a n d p r i v a t e ) who h a v e a n a g e n d a —  a t l a r g e working  Therefore, climate  a r e a l l those  t o achieve  i n sum,  a common mandate.  action i sgetting the issue of  agenda.  we a r e n o t d o i n g  of "out of sight,  and  I f we  are not actively  a n y t h i n g about i t .  o u t o f mind".  Until  paradigms can evolve t o t h e l e v e l o f second nature,  new  I t ' sthe thinking  t h e problems  demand a l l p o l i c i e s a n d p l a n s k e e p t h e o b j e c t i v e s c l e a r l y p r i n t e d i n b l a c k and white.  In t h e i r a r t i c l e ,  "A M u l t i n a t i o n a l A s s e s s m e n t o f C o a s t a l Zone  Management i n OECD C o u n t r i e s " ( 1 9 9 4 ) , a u t h o r s C h r i s t o p h e r Chung a n d Lawrence H i l d e b r a n d ,  cite  three types  o f management  deficiencies  a n d f a i l u r e s w h i c h c h a r a c t e r i z e t h e c u r r e n t c o a s t a l z o n e management e f f o r t s o f t h e OECD member c o u n t r i e s : i ) p o l i c y d e f i c i e n c i e s , i i ) intervention inadequacies  failure,  and i i i )  market  failure.'"'  While  these  a r e c i t e d a s t h e u n d e r l y i n g p r o b l e m s o f c o a s t a l zone  management, t h e y a r e p a r t i c u l a r l y r e l e v a n t t o t h e d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g process  i n planning attempts  ^'^ OECD Development  -  Organization  t o address  g l o b a l c l i m a t e change and  f o r Economic  Co-operation  and  its  impacts, p a r t i c u l a r l y  these problems  a)  that  of sea level  rise.  A review of  i l l u s t r a t e s t h e case i n p o i n t .  Policy  Deficiencies  First,  s u c c e s s f u l , i n t e g r a t e d c o a s t a l z o n e management i s "few  and f a r between" policies,  among OECD member c o u n t r i e s  or else  integration,  poorly  coverage,  d e v e l o p e d ones implementation,  due t o an absence o f  e x i s t r e s u l t i n g i n poor and enforcement.  p o l i c i e s a r e a l s o c h a r a c t e r i z e d by i n a p p r o p r i a t e administrative  arrangements,  These  i n s t i t u t i o n a l and  ambiguity o r c o n t r a d i c t i o n  between  *  p o l i c i e s administered "territorial" effective  type  by d i f f e r e n t s e c t o r a l a g e n c i e s ( r e s u l t i n g i n conflicts  consultation  and  confusion),  procedures  and  and  conflict  a  lack  of  resolution  processes."°  Chung a n d H i l d e b r a n d policies,  a l s o s t a t e t h a t t h e d e v e l o p m e n t o f "good"  i . e . those that  integrates activities,  legislation,  possess c l e a r goals,  administrative  i s n o t enough  to  and p o l i c y  arrangements  ensure  adequate  which  and s e c t o r a l coastal  zone  management. T h e r e i s a f u r t h e r r e q u i r e m e n t t h a t t h e s e p o l i c i e s be b a c k e d up "by p o l i t i c a l w i l l  a n d s u p p o r t " t o t r a n s l a t e them  a c t i o n . They c i t e t h e case o f t h e F r a s e r  River  into  Estuary i n British  C o l u m b i a , C a n a d a a s s u f f e r i n g f r o m weak p o l i t i c a l c o m m i t m e n t t o t h e planning  a n d management p r o g r a m s d e v e l o p e d , d e m o n s t r a t e d b y a l a c k  Christopher Chung and Lawrence P. Hildebrand "A M u l t i n a t i o n a l Assessment of Coastal Zone Management i n OECD C o u n t r i e s " i n E c o d e c i s i o n . V o l . 11 ( J a n u a r y , 1 9 9 4 ) ; p a g e 4 6 .  of  sufficient  funding  and  support  staff  at  the  implementation  stage.  Second,  "legislation  contradictory adequately  to  illustrated or  and  relating  t o the  insufficiently  the  complex  coastal  zone  i s often  comprehensive  to  respond  relationships  that  exist".  This  was  i n t h e OECD s t u d y by t h e e x i s t e n c e o f " p o o r l y d e f i n e d  overlapping  jurisdictional  boundaries,  a  plethora  of  a d m i n i s t e r i n g a g e n c i e s a t s e v e r a l l e v e l s o f government, d u p l i c a t i o n of  responsibilities  consultation impacts  or  consent  required, limited  o f d e c i s i o n s and  procedures,  variable  c o n s i d e r a t i o n of  development,  and  poor  the  public  cumulative  enforcement".  An  e x a m p l e c i t e d i s t h e c a s e o f A u s t r a l i a w h e r e i n "3 0 l o c a l g o v e r n m e n t councils  along  agencies  with  the  coast  coastal  interact  with  some  responsibilities,  and,  of  the  at  19  state  times,  with  Commonwealth ( f e d e r a l g o v e r n m e n t ) a g e n c i e s " . " '  On  a  more  (CZMA) d e v e l o p e d  positive  note,  the  Coastal  i n t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s has  good r e f e r e n c e p o i n t f o r c r i t i c a l  policy  recognition  of  of the primary  roles  Zone  Management  Act  b e e n recommended a s  a  a n a l y s i s because of i t s  state  and  local  government,  w h i c h t h e A u s t r a l i a n P a r l i a m e n t h a s s u b s e q u e n t l y recommended, i n t e r alia,  that  the  Commonwealth  Government  Management A c t u p o n s i m i l a r l i n e s . new  Resource  I n 1991  enact New  a  Coastal  Zone  Zealand adopted  a  Management A c t w h i c h r e l a t e s a l l " r e s p o n s i b i l i t y f o r  developing  a  department,  national with  c o a s t a l p o l i c y t o one c e n t r a l  the roles  and  powers  of  a l lother  i n v o l v e d o n t h e c o a s t c l e a r l y s p e c i f i e d " . To d a t e , been  established  that  require  government agencies  p r o c e d u r e s have  a l l l e v e l s o f government  t o co-  o r d i n a t e a n d implement p o l i c y i n an i n t e g r a t e d manner a s f o l l o w s : *  At t h e n a t i o n a l l e v e l : r e s p o n s i b i l i t y f o r b r o a d p o l i c y f o r m u l a t i o n and d e c i s i o n making on m a t t e r s o f major s i g n i f i c a n c e f o r t h e coast o r t h e n a t i o n as a whole. I n t e g r a t i o n a t a p o l i c y l e v e l w i t h other economic s e c t o r s ( f o r example, f i s h i n g , t r a n s p o r t a t i o n , and a g r i c u l t u r e ) is required;  *  At t h e r e g i o n a l l e v e l : responsibility for detailed p l a n n i n g f o r c o a s t a l and i n l a n d w a t e r s and b r o a d p o l i c y g u i d a n c e f o r t h e management o f c o a s t a l l a n d . I n t e g r a t i o n at a planning l e v e l w i t h other economic s e c t o r s i s required;  *  At t h e l o c a l l e v e l : r e s p o n s i b i l i t y f o r d e t a i l e d c o a s t a l land-use planning."^  Chung and H i l d e b r a n d  comment t h a t  i t r e m a i n s t o be s e e n  t y p e o f s i n g l e a g e n c y a p p r o a c h c a n be a d a p t e d t o o t h e r w i t h d i f f e r e n t p o l i t i c a l circumstances,  i f this  countries  and f u r t h e r , i f t h e l o n g -  t e r m p e r f o r m a n c e o f s u c h a s t r a t e g y w i l l y i e l d t h e d e s i r e d outcome. For  example, although  well-accepted despite  t h e CZMA i n t h e U n i t e d  program,  long-standing  there  still  States  r e m a i n many  interdepartmental  policy  and  i n p a r t i c u l a r subsidized flood insurance  encourage  risky  potential  development  and  preservation  policies;  and  policies  that  co-  programs which  redevelopment;  f o r federal tax policies to conflict with  a  conflicts  interstate  operation,  coastal  represents  the  environmental  promote  development c o n f l i c t with wetlands p r e s e r v a t i o n p o l i c y .  resource  b)  Intervention In  their  zones,  failure:  efforts  to  maximize  the  outputs  many OECD member g o v e r n m e n t s u t i l i z e  s t r a t e g i e s , w h i c h more o f t e n t h a n n o t , f a i l . five  primary  reasons  for this  failure  of  their  coastal  direct intervention The  OECD r e p o r t  including the  cited  absence  or  i n a d e q u a c y o f i n f o r m a t i o n , i n a d e q u a t e c o - o r d i n a t i o n among r e l e v a n t agencies, within  the poor demarcation of r e s p o n s i b i l i t i e s between agencies  and  instruments policy  outside used  government,  for  missing  limited  implementation,  i m p l e m e n t a t i o n and  The  the  and  range  lastly,  monitoring/evaluation  of  policy  unsatisfactory  phases.  absence or inadequacy of i n f o r m a t i o n r e s u l t s from e i t h e r or  compounded  deficient by  the  types  of  shortage  of  information, skilled  which  technical  is  often  personnel  to  u n d e r t a k e t h e r e s e a r c h and c r i t i c a l l y r e v i e w d e v e l o p m e n t p r o p o s a l s . Chung  and  government  Hildebrand level,  c o a s t a l l a n d use the cost  state  i.e.  at  this the  planning  notable level,  at  the  where  local  detailed  and management d e c i s i o n s a r e commonly made. I t i s  f a m i l i a r problem of having exercises  i s most  being  complex assessments o f b e n e f i t  relegated  to  local  planners  and  and  their  r e s p e c t i v e l o c a l c o u n c i l s w h i l e a t t h e same t i m e b o t h a r e hampered time  constraints,  small  and/or  inadequate  staffing,  and  i n s u f f i c i e n t g u i d a n c e f r o m n a t i o n a l and r e g i o n a l c o a s t a l p o l i c i e s .  Other problems w i t h regard include the  range of  information  to the  inadequacy of  gathered,  information  for instance  physical  and  biological  the  economic  alternative  information should costs  plans,  opportunities exist coastal  and  be s u p p l e m e n t e d b y a n a l y s e s  benefits  programs  and  and  environmental  developments.  f o rpublic participation  impacts  Also,  of of  limited  and p u b l i c i n p u t i n  z o n e management. I n B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a , a t t h e l o c a l  level  o n l y o n e a c t makes i t c o m p u l s o r y t o i n v i t e p u b l i c comment, h o w e v e r this  input  i s almost  made  irrelevant  by t h e a b s e n c e  i n v o l v e m e n t a t t h e p l a n n i n g and d e c i s i o n making  Inadequate confusion, social  environmental  damage, a n d l o s t  opportunities,  additional case  c o - o r d i n a t i o n among r e l e v a n t  often  causing  of the Aveiro  levels.  agencies  result i n  o r reduced economic o r backtracking  e x p e n s e t o f i x b o t c h e d up p l a n n i n g  of t h e lagoon  of public  estuary  efforts,  later  at  as i n the  i n Portugal.  A  more  p o s i t i v e example o f agency c o - o r d i n a t i o n i s t h e c a s e o f t h e e a s t e r n Scheldt  estuary  i n the Netherlands  period of planning success  management  associated  with  on a  lengthy  s t u d i e s and a h i g h n a t i o n a l commitment t o t h e  of the project.  resulting  w h i c h was b a s e d  Chung  plan  flood  and H i l d e b r a n d  provides  protection  for  state  economic  measures  to  that "the objectives  complement  the  p r o t e c t i o n o f e c o l o g i c a l , f i s h e r i e s and r e c r e a t i o n a l o p p o r t u n i t i e s .  Poor d e m a r c a t i o n o f r e s p o n s i b i l i t i e s between a g e n c i e s and  outside  government  impede  success  of  any  coastal  within zone  management p l a n u n l e s s c l e a r l y s p e c i f i e d a n d c o - o r d i n a t e d r o l e s a r e l a i d o u t . A t p r e s e n t , Chung a n d H i l d e b r a n d s t a t e t h a t  institutional  responses  generally f a l l  into  t w o camps: a " w i t h i n t h e s y s t e m "  r e a r r a n g e m e n t i n w h i c h t h e o v e r a l l p l a n n i n g a n d management s y s t e m is  maintained  responsibilities  but  constituent  elements,  procedures  a r e r e s h u f f l e d ; o r a complete  overhaul  and  of the  s y s t e m i s u n d e r t a k e n w h e r e i n new " r u l e s o f t h e game" a r e s p e c i f i e d , t h e New Z e a l a n d  R e s o u r c e Management A c t b e i n g  an example o f t h i s  approach.  The  OECD s t u d y r e v e a l e d a s t r o n g e m p h a s i s o n r e g u l a t o r y  instruments  type  among OECD c o u n t r i e s i n c l u d i n g r e g u l a t i o n s f o r w a t e r  q u a l i t y , t a r g e t s , z o n i n g , and p e r m i t t e d d i s c h a r g e l i m i t s , e t c . , and economic charges,  incentives  including  polluter-pays  principle,  t r a d e a b l e p e r m i t s , and f i n e s , e t c . , and l a s t l y ,  taxes,  voluntary  a g r e e m e n t s i n c l u d i n g n e g o t i a t i o n , e d u c a t i o n , a n d s u a s i o n . Chung a n d Hildebrand,  among o t h e r s ,  argue a g a i n s t  upon economic approaches a l o n e undervalue  c e r t a i n environmental  a combination  such  excessive reliance  s i n c e there e x i s t s t h e tendency t o r e s o u r c e s , a n d t h e r e f o r e recommend  w i t h a mix o f economic i n s t r u m e n t s  c r e a t e a more i n t e g r a t e d p o l i c y  approach.  Problems o f r e a c t i v e p o l i c y  development and  coupled w i t h a lack of p o l i t i c a l w i l l t o support lack of systematic monitoring mechanisms efforts.  also  lead  and r e g u l a t i o n t o  implementation,  implementation,  arrangements, and poor  to failures  i n coastal  zone  a  enforcement management  c)  Market  failure:  Improvement i n the aspect  of  attempts to  p r o g r a m s . Chung and  way  economic markets o p e r a t e  produce e f f e c t i v e c o a s t a l  Hildebrand  i s only  one  z o n e management  argue, "Imperfect v a l u a t i o n or  non-  v a l u a t i o n o f c o a s t a l r e s o u r c e s l e a d t o i n e f f i c i e n t a l l o c a t i o n and temporary  or  permanent e n v i r o n m e n t a l  damage."  f a i l to r e f l e c t a resource's f u l l value, there  i s no  " I f market  demand w i l l be  prices  excessive;  e c o n o m i c i n c e n t i v e t o a l t e r b e h a v i o u r s , and  secondary  e n v i r o n m e n t a l p r o b l e m s may  be t r i g g e r e d " . F i n e s and p e n a l t i e s w h i c h  are  and  too  low  u n d e r m i n e any  b e h a v i o u r as where  the  i n the  authors  protection  and  prosecutions  case of the state  the  pollution  into  full  "Fines  As  can  Chung and  be  gleaned  Hildebrand  resource  of planning,  more b r o a d l y proactive denial  i"*  and  for  in British  violations  regulations  costs  a  Columbia,  of  were  habitat  small  e f f o r t s to are  alter  and  incorporate  difficult  task,  on t h e d y n a m i c s o f i n t e r a c t i o n s  and  c o a s t a l zone."''  from the  OECD r e p o r t  i n t h e i r assessment of  z o n e management t o d a y , new act  River  Furthermore,  r e q u i r i n g improved information impacts t h a t a f f e c t the  Fraser  control  intermittent".  externalities  a l l e f f o r t s t o c o n t r o l and/or  and the  p o s i t i o n s n e e d t o be  incorporating  b o t h p a s t and  the  comments  s t a t e of  of  coastal  taken toward  present data  the  into  a  b a s e d , i n t e g r a t e d f o r m a t i n t o o r d e r t o a c h i e v e a more  approach,  rather  maintenance"  C h u n g and  as  Hildebrand  than  "reactive  suggested  by  responses  Morley  (1994), I b i d . ; page ^  B6  .  (1986)  48.  involving that  are  commonly  found  i n s i t u a t i o n s of  expected  that  planning  will  uncertainty.  provide,  in  In the  summary,  i t is  decision-making  process, ... a s i g n i f i c a n t r o l e i n m o n i t o r i n g t h e c h a n g i n g n a t u r e of the positions held by the interests involved, providing for consideration a range of a l t e r n a t i v e c o u r s e s o f a c t i o n , a d v i s i n g on t h e s e l e c t i o n o f t h o s e a c t i o n s t h a t w i l l m a x i m i z e t h e r e t u r n t o t h e body i t i s r e p o r t i n g t o , and a s s i s t i n g i n t h e i m p l e m e n t a t i o n o f t h e chosen route.  I n our  e f f o r t s to respond to g l o b a l c l i m a t e  c h a n g e , we  assume t h e f u t u r e s t a t e o f t h e p h y s i c a l e n v i r o n m e n t t o be —  one  which " e x h i b i t [ s ] v a r i a t i o n s outside  disturbances the  that  decision-making process,  increasingly qualitative  required and  t h e i r planning the  a f f e c t our  realm of  cannot  be  otherwise,  expected  social  planners  p o l i c y makers w i l l  and  be  both  the  strategies. I t i s i n t h i s effort that planners  enter  absolutely  Dror  certain, efforts  of  to  Morley  ( 1 9 8 6 ) , Op.  (1986) c a l l s the  manage  C i t . ; page  Merely  (1986), I b i d . ; page  (1986), I b i d . ; page  5.  24.  their  refine,  In  into  g a m b l i n g " as  of  and  systems"."*  information  our  aspects  situations.  Dror  turbulent  e c o n o m i c and  incorporate,  quantitative  "fuzzy  of  to  the range of  must  4.  outcomes, present  i t because  we  intended  or  and  future  CHAPTER FOUR INTEGRATING CLIMATE CHANGE IN PLANNING  I n 1896, Swedish p h y s i c a l c h e m i s t S v a n t e A r r h e n i u s  published  t h e f i r s t a n a l y s i s on p o t e n t i a l c l i m a t e change c a u s e d by i n d u s t r i a l emissions of  o f r a d i a t i v e l y a c t i v e gases. Since  t h e greenhouse  hypothesis,  effect  has evolved  t h a t time t h e theory from  conception,  t o t h e c u r r e n t consensus view t h a t i t i s b o t h r e a l and  the p r o b a b l e d r i v i n g f o r c e f o r g l o b a l c l i m a t e change t o d a y et.  al. ,  to  1988)."*  Although  u n c e r t a i n t i e s abound  over  (Jaeger, both t h e  m a g n i t u d e a n d t i m i n g o f p o t e n t i a l c l i m a t e w a r m i n g , more a m b i v a l e n c e surrounds  t h eprospects  f o rco-operatively  resolving  i t s global  i m p l i c a t i o n s t h r o u g h a c o m b i n a t i o n o f i n t e r n a t i o n a l , n a t i o n a l , and local  initiatives.  In t h i s review as  sea level  investigated  rise,  o f g l o b a l c l i m a t e change a n d i t s i m p a c t s , we h a v e c o n s i d e r e d  i t s impacts f o r c o a s t a l and i s l a n d  examined t h e r o l e o f t h e p l a n n i n g included  thephysical  t h e complexities  phenomenon,  communities, and  and o f p l a n n e r s .  involved,  such  uncertainty  The d i s c u s s i o n i n planning,  c o n s t r a i n t s t o p l a n n i n g , and t h e c h a l l e n g e o f c u r r e n t a m b i t i o n s t o achieve  s u s t a i n a b l e d e v e l o p m e n t t h r o u g h a more i n t e g r a t e d a p p r o a c h  o f c o a s t a l z o n e management. I n t h i s c o n c l u d i n g  chapter  we t a k e a n  o v e r v i e w o f p a s t , c u r r e n t , and proposed i n i t i a t i v e s t o i n c o r p o r a t e  "* E r i k A r r h e n i u s a n d Thomas W. W a l t z ( 1 9 9 0 ) , W o r l d Bank D i s c u s s i o n P a p e r "The G r e e n h o u s e E f f e c t . I m p l i c a t i o n s f o r E c o n o m i c D e v e l o p m e n t " . ( T h e W o r l d Bank; W a s h i n g t o n , D . C ) .  new i n f o r m a t i o n r e g a r d i n g t h e e n v i r o n m e n t a n d d e v e l o p m e n t , a n d more specifically  that  of climate  s u s t a i n a b l e development  However, traditional  change  impacts i n t h e context  goals.  i t i s h e r e amongst t h e c u r r e n t  r o l e of planning  and p l a n n e r s ,  s u s t a i n a b l e development, a r e subjected What d o e s t h e c h a l l e n g e current  for  planning? T r a d i t i o n a l planning  against  s t a t e o f human v a l u e s  are scrutinized  Dror's contention  and what does t h i s and t h e g o a l  challenged.  solver".  planning  as an a c t i v i t y ,  of  validity  really  of uncertainty  when  I t i s further  and t h a t  f o r example  argued  are the has  i n i t s role of  here t h a t  an a g e n t o f change  examined  planning  the role of  and t h e r o l e o f t h e i n d i v i d u a l  be o n e o f " e n a b l e r " ,  mean  sustainable  " d e n i a l and maintenance"  been a r e a c t i v e e x e r c i s e ,  "problem  should  that the  and t h e o b j e c t i v e o f  t o s c r u t i n y and  for their  that  common r e s p o n s e s t o i s s u e s essentially  efforts,  o f s u s t a i n a b l e development r e a l l y say about  the  development  of  who  planner,  enablesi t s  s o c i e t y t o be " p r o a c t i v e " t h r o u g h t h e e x e r c i s e o f p l a n n i n g  f o r the  f u t u r e r a t h e r t h a n one o f r e a c t i n g a g a i n s t u n i n t e n d e d o u t c o m e s o f p a s t p o l i c i e s and v a l u e s .  i)  C u r r e n t P l a n n i n g I n i t i a t i v e s and P r o p o s a l s C l i m a t e Change, and R i s i n g Sea L e v e l s  a)  The I n t e r n a t i o n a l Community  The 1970s - Stockholm. The In  Environment.  1972 t h e S t o c k h o l m C o n f e r e n c e m a r k e d  significant  change  t o Address  i n the  public's  the beginning  awareness  of  the  of a inter-  relatedness  between  development.  I t brought t o t h e f o r e t h e dangers o f i n d i s c r i m i n a t e  development  the  physical  environment  and  economic  t o t h e n a t u r a l environment, and r e c o g n i z e d t h e l i m i t e d  capacity of the earth t o sustain current patterns of  development  and i n d e f i n i t e l y p r o v i d e e s s e n t i a l r e s o u r c e s i n t h e f a c e o f b l i n d progress. end  The e n v i r o n m e n t a l i s s u e s w h i c h emerged were s e e n , by t h e  o f t h e C o n f e r e n c e , a s more t h a n j u s t a q u e s t i o n o f p o l l u t i o n  and  isolated  cases  of degradation.  The  Stockholm  Conference  i n i t i a t e d a new, e v o l u t i o n a r y s t a g e i n h u m a n k i n d ' s a t t i t u d e t o w a r d t h e p h y s i c a l environment and i t s '  By  the early  particularly apparent.  the failures  i n t h e T h i r d World c o u n t r i e s ,  These  exacerbated  t h e 1970s  i m p a c t upon  daily  environment.  countries  were  caught  it.  of  "development",  were becoming in a  downward  rapidly spiral  b y i n c r e a s i n g human demands u p o n t h e p h y s i c a l  The Green R e v o l u t i o n h a d f a i l e d t o f u l f i l  its  of a t e c h n o l o g i c a l s o l u t i o n t o a people-generated problem.  promise I t had  a l s o become c l e a r t h a t t h e T h i r d W o r l d n a t i o n s c o u l d n o t a f f o r d t h e " r e a c t and c u r e " p o l i c i e s adopted by t h e d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s . I n t h e p o o r e s t c o u n t r i e s , e n v i r o n m e n t a l i s s u e s were d i r e c t l y to  the basic  preoccupations of people  to find  food,  related  fuel,  and  shelter.  The 1980s - The Emergence of Climate I s s u e s . S e v e n y e a r s a f t e r t h e S t o c k h o l m C o n f e r e n c e , i n 1979, t h e F i r s t World  Climate  Conference  was  convened  i n Geneva  by  t h e World  Meteorological  Organization  United  organizations  Nation  Scientific  Unions  Programme was  (WMO), and  in  the  collaboration with  International Council  (ICSU) . L a t e r t h a t same y e a r , t h e W o r l d  e s t a b l i s h e d by  t h e WMO.  At t h a t time  C l i m a t e Programme members d e c l a r e d , "... for  nations to u t i l i z e  i n the p l a n n i n g of s o c i a l  Since  t h e volume of s c i e n t i f i c  and  1972  economic  development  In United  1988  the  World  t h e r e i s an immediate need  and  climate  economic development"."'  publications, social  arguments have been as  of  Climate  new  e x i s t i n g knowledge o f c l i m a t e and  variations  other  endless  as  the  debates,  problems  of  themselves.  the World M e t e o r o l o g i c a l O r g a n i z a t i o n  Nations  Environment  Intergovernmental  Program  (UNEP)  jointly  P a n e l on C l i m a t e Change ( I P C C ) .  (WMO)  and  the  created  the  I t s mandate  was  to a s s e s s t h e s c i e n t i f i c u n d e r s t a n d i n g  of c l i m a t e change, determine  the  consequences, and  environmental  and  socio-economic  formulate  p o s s i b l e r e s p o n s e s t r a t e g i e s t o l i m i t o r r e d u c e t h e impacts.'^" present  approximately  fifty  nations  participated  Bureau, t h e i r e f f o r t s d i v i d e d i n t o three working 1990, cannot  in  At  the  IPCC  groups. In August  t h e IPCC p u b l i s h e d i t s f i r s t r e p o r t w h i c h p l a i n l y s t a t e d , continue  with  business  as  usual",  i n t e r n a t i o n a l c o m m u n i t y t o t a k e a c t i o n . The  and  urged  "we the  I P C C a l s o recommended  "' Professor G.O.P. Obasi (1992). C1imate Change. E n v i r o n m e n t and D e v e l o p m e n t . W o r l d l e a d e r s ' v i e w p o i n t s . (World M e t e o r o l o g i c a l O r g a n i z a t i o n ; G e n e v a ) ; F o r e w o r d , pg. v i i . 120 E n v i r o n m e n t Canada "Towards an I n t e r n a t i o n a l A c c o r d C l i m a t e Change" i n t h e Green P l a n (August, 1 9 9 1 ) ; ( p r e p a r e d A t m o s p h e r i c E n v i r o n m e n t S e r v i c e , Downsview, O n t a r i o ) .  on by  t h a t an i n t e r n a t i o n a l accord proposed  Climate  Change  be d e v e l o p e d o n c l i m a t e  Convention  "would  be  change.  similar  The  t o the  e x i s t i n g i n t e r n a t i o n a l agreement t o p r o t e c t t h e ozone l a y e r " a s s e t out  i n t h e 1985 V i e n n a  minimum,  a  framework  Convention,  of general  "and w o u l d  s e t down, a s a  p r i n c i p l e s and obligations".'^'  T h u s , t h e F r a m e w o r k C o n v e n t i o n f o r C l i m a t e Change was t a b l e d a t t h e 1992  United  Nations  (UNCED), E a r t h  Conference  on E n v i r o n m e n t  Summit, i n R i o d e J a n i e r o ,  and  Development  Brazil.  The 1990s - U n i t e d N a t i o n s ' E a r t h Summit. In  t h e 1990s t h e i s s u e  longer  restricted  activities  o f e c o l o g i c a l d i s e q u i l i b r i u m i s no  t o discussions  b u t extend t o include  of just issues  economic  of equity,  development  s e c u r i t y , and  e c o l o g i c a l s u s t a i n a b i l i t y , most e s p e c i a l l y s o f o r t h e s m a l l i s l a n d developing  states  climate  change  greater  public  (SIDS).  On a p o s i t i v e n o t e , t h e i s s u e o f g l o b a l  has, a t t h e very awareness  of  l e a s t , succeeded  the interrelatedness  e n v i r o n m e n t a n d human a f f a i r s .  i n  harnessing  of  physical  The c a p a b i l i t y o f g l o b a l  change t o undermine both c u r r e n t  and f u t u r e  economic and s o c i a l  p r o s p e r i t y h a s perhaps succeeded i n awakening t h e " s l e e p i n g —  the  uncertainty  surrounding  the  climate  sustainability  of  giant" human  a c t i v i t i e s on t h e p l a n e t .  Echoing  t h e sentiments  first  •21 E n v i r o n m e n t Canada (1991) , A c c o r d o n C l i m a t e Change"; I b i d .  espoused  "Towards  a t t h e Stockholm  an  International  C o n f e r e n c e , and the  United  world-wide  l a t e r i n the Brundtland Report,  Nations'  Earth  support  and  Summit a t t e m p t e d  consensus  on  Our  Common F u t u r e ,  once a g a i n  the  pervasive  to  garner  ecological  p r o b l e m s f a c i n g a l l s o c i e t i e s a s a r e s u l t o f human a c t i v i t i e s . J u n e 1992,  In  as c o u n t r i e s convened a t t h e U n i t e d N a t i o n s ' F i r s t E a r t h  Summit i n R i o de J a n i e r o , t h e h o p e was  h e l d out t h a t t h i s would  be  "the" i n t e r n a t i o n a l event of the century, f i n a l l y p u t t i n g i n place the the  g r o u n d w o r k f o r s u s t a i n a b l e d e v e l o p m e n t and global  sanctioned  environment conventions  through to  a  protect  series and  the p r o t e c t i o n of  of  internationally  c o n t r o l the  use  of  the  Change  was  earth's diminishing natural resources.  The  1992  UNCED Framework  Convention  s i g n e d a t t h e E a r t h Summit c o m m i t t i n g t o protect the world measures.  For  the  developed  manage  their  emissions  carbon  sinks  (including  carbon  from  nations emissions,  while  the  the  oceans  atmosphere) ,  requirements  f o r inventories, monitoring  In  very  island  r e c o g n i t i o n of developing  states  special  (SIDS)  in  a s e r i e s of  convention's  nations specific  prescribed  helping developing  continuing  forests,  Climate  many o f t h e w o r l d ' s  c l i m a t e system through  measures i n c l u d e d r e d u c i n g  removes  on  to and and  develop, anything a  long  nations  protecting else  that  list  of  and r e p o r t i n g .  circumstances meeting  the  of  the  small  challenges  G l e n n R o l l a n s , "UNCED C o n v e n t i o n Change i n t h e W e a t h e r , Changes i n t h e Wind", i n Environment Views ( A l b e r t a Environment; E d m o n t o n ) . V o l . 15, No. 3; W i n t e r 1992; page 15.  of  sustainable  development  i n the  face  of  e c o l o g i c a l and  economic  f r a g i l i t y a n d v u l n e r a b i l i t y , Acrenda 21 n e g o t i a t e d a t t h e R i o Summit recommended  that  a  g l o b a l conference  address the concerns. for  In A p r i l ,  convened  to  attempt  specific  States.  actions  development  and  assistance of sustainable  the  to  be  undertaken  development".'^^ T h i s  Port  Oceans, and  Vila, the  to by  SIDS i n t h e C a r i b b e a n ,  conference  for  SIDS  of  the  [their] work  Committee s e s s i o n s , Pacific  and  Indian  Tobago, f o r  a number o f p l a n s , p o l i c i e s , p r o g r a m s and  and  international levels."'^  mandate  to  "examine  the  and A t l a n t i c o c e a n s . " E a c h  a c t i o n f o r s u s t a i n a b l e development a t the  a  with  facilitate  i n P o r t - o f - S p a i n , T r i n i d a d and Mediterranean  and  follows earlier  for  With  environment [SIDS],  i n the Preparatory  Vanuata  other  d e v e l o p e d [ i n 1993]  relating  i n t e r n a t i o n a l community, t o  u n d e r t a k e n t h r o u g h o u t 1993 in  Small  I t s ' o b j e c t i v e i s t o " d e f i n e a number o f policies  planning  to  SIDS w i l l c o n v e n e i n B a r b a d o s  t h e G l o b a l C o n f e r e n c e on t h e S u s t a i n a b l e D e v e l o p m e n t o f  Island Developing  one  1994  be  strategies  RTM  bases  national, regional  for  national  and  i n t e r n a t i o n a l a c t i o n w i t h a view t o a r r i v i n g a t s p e c i f i c agreements and  commitments  organizations  for  by  Governments  defined  and  activities  to  by  intergovernmental  promote  sustained  '^^ J o h n W. A s h e and M a r k D. Griffith i n "The Barbados Conference f o r the Sustainable Development o f Small Island D e v e l o p i n g S t a t e s ( S I D S ) : P o s s i b l e O u t c o m e s " i n E c o d e c i s i o n V o l . 11 ( J a n u a r y 1 9 9 4 ) ; p a g e 55. '^'' A s h e a n d  Griffith;  I b i d . ; page  55.  and  environmentally Conference,  sound  development"  of  SIDS  at  the  Barbados  i t i s hoped t h a t a t l o n g l a s t t h e s e n a t i o n s w i l l  gain  t h e much n e e d e d p o l i t i c a l a n d e c o n o m i c c l o u t i n t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l community.Furthermore,  Ashe  important  shift  i n focus from  long-term  planning strategy w i l l  and  Griffith  report  s h o r t - t e r m and i n t e r i m  that  an  goals t o a  be r e q u i r e d s i n c e much o f t h e  e n v i r o n m e n t a l d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g o c c u r r i n g i n SIDS a r e d o n e o n a n a d hoc  basis.  direction  Also  on  a  positive  note,  progress  i n the  right  h a s b e e n t h e f o r m a t i o n o f a "53-member C o m m i s s i o n o n  S u s t a i n a b l e Development  (CSD),  a s u b s i d i a r y body o f t h e Economic  a n d S o c i a l C o u n c i l (ECOSOC), w h i c h h a s b e e n c h a r g e d w i t h t h e t a s k o f e n s u r i n g e f f e c t i v e f o l l o w - u p t o t h e U n i t e d N a t i o n s C o n f e r e n c e on Environment  and  Development  (UNCED)  by  monitoring  the  i m p l e m e n t a t i o n o f A g e n d a 21 a t a l l l e v e l s " . ' ^ *  to)  National Planning Strategies On a n a t i o n a l l e v e l , e f f o r t s t o a d d r e s s g l o b a l c l i m a t e c h a n g e  and  i t sassociated  impacts  such  as  sea l e v e l  rise,  has  been  r e s t r i c t e d p r i m a r i l y t o p l a n n i n g i n t h e form o f p o l i c y development —  i t s a n a l y s i s , and i m p l e m e n t a t i o n i n i t s programs.  the Canadian policies  F e d e r a l Government h a s u n d e r t a k e n  t o address  t h e impacts  o f expected  o u t l i n e d i n t h e 1991 A S t a t e o f E n v i r o n m e n t Atmospheric '25  Change,  along  with  the  Forinstance,  a s e r i e s o f planned global  Report, Federal  Ashe and G r i f f i t h  ( 1 9 9 4 ) , I b i d . ; p a g e 56.  Ashe and G r i f f i t h  ( 1 9 9 4 ) , I b i d ; p a g e 56.  warming,  as  Understanding Ministry  of  Environment's  more  documents p r o v i d e  recent  initiative,  t h e Green  Plan.  t h e b a s i s o f i n f o r m a t i o n and p o l i c i e s  These by which  t h e C a n a d i a n government i n t e n d s t o implement c o n t r o l s , and m i t i g a t e the  most n e g a t i v e  consequences o f atmospheric change.  G r e e n P l a n a l r e a d y goes beyond r e d u c t i o n s Earth  Summit  Climate  Convention,  greenhouse-gas emissions  i n emissions  aiming  Canada's s e t out i n  for stabilization  a t 1990 l e v e l s b y t h e y e a r  of  2000 a n d , by  t h e e n d o f O c t o b e r 1992 a CASA s e c r e t a r i a t was a s s i g n e d  to tackle  "about a dozen p r i o r i t y i s s u e s , i n c l u d i n g e v a l u a t i n g impediments t o energy e f f i c i e n c y , r e v i e w i n g t h e b u i l d i n g code, and r e v i e w i n g t h e use  of fossil  f u e l s f o r the generation  of electricity".'^'  I n c o n j u n c t i o n w i t h t h e Green P l a n , t h e Canadian I n t e r n a t i o n a l D e v e l o p m e n t A g e n c y (CIDA) a l s o r e l e a s e d i t s u p d a t e d p o l i c y mandate, Policv  f o r Environmental  Sustainability  i n c o r p o r a t e t h e growing complexity its  i n January  of environmental  o v e r s e a s programs and p r o j e c t s . E x i s t i n g  already  made  development environmental  efforts  t o incorporate  i n principle,  usually  concerns  into  CIDA p o l i c i e s  have  t h e concept through  i m p a c t a s s e s s m e n t s ( s i n c e 1986)  1992 t o  of sustainable  the requirement  of  i n t o i t s programs and  projects.  In g e n e r a l t h e d e v e l o p e d n a t i o n s h a v e p l a c e d a h e a v y e m p h a s i s  I a n B u r n o f A l b e r t E n e r g y q u o t e d i n G l e n R o l l a n s "UNCED Convention. Change i n t h e weather, changes i n t h e w i n d " i n Environment News. V o l . 1 5 , No. 3, W i n t e r 1992. ( A l b e r t a Environment; C a n a d a ) ; p a g e 15.  on r e s e a r c h , r e s e a r c h r e p o r t i n g , a n d s p e c i a l c o m m i t t e e  w o r k , much  of  advocate a  w h i c h h a s b e e n s e e n a s d e l a y t a c t i c s by c r i t i c s who  more p r o a c t i v e  and  immediate  response.  i n i t i a t i v e s a r e b e i n g d e v e l o p e d and  While  similar  implemented  types  of  around t h e world,  t h e r e a r e s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e s between t h e e f f o r t s o f developed nations  versus those of the s t i l l  v e r y d i f f e r e n t economic,  developing nations.  s o c i a l , and c u l t u r a l g r o u p s  e n v i r o n m e n t a l c o n c e r n s on a g l o b a l trends,  however, as s t a t e d  earlier  scale,  These  s h a r e common  such as g l o b a l  i n Chapter  2,  two  the  warming  impacts  of  s u c h and t h e a b i l i t y t o r e s p o n d and/or p l a n f o r such changes d i f f e r substantially. predominately  For  example,  chosen  among  the a  OECD  variety  member of  countries  economic  and  have market  approaches t o c u r b unwanted b e h a v i o u r , i n a d d i t i o n t o i m p l e m e n t i n g coastal  zone  technology  management  and  expert  plans staff).  (replete For  with  these  the  necessary  countries  i t  p r e d o m i n a t e l y a m a t t e r o f m a t e r i a l r e s t r a i n t and f o r e s i g h t , disasters  are  not  yet regularly  a p p e a r i n g upon t h e i r  is  since  doorstep.  However, i f r e c e n t e v e n t s i n t h e c o a s t a l zone r e g i o n s o f t h e U n i t e d States  i s any  indication  o f what i s coming,  d e v e l o p e d n a t i o n s w i l l h e e d t h e wake-up  perhaps  many o f  the  call.  By c o n t r a s t , i n t h e s t i l l d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s t h e r e s p o n s e i s g e n e r a l l y an extreme of  crisis  because  o f " o u r t u r n t o d e v e l o p a s we s e e f i t "  their  l a n d base  and  f r e s h water  or  one  resources are  r a p i d l y e r o d i n g and e c o l o g i c a l d i s a s t e r s a r e r o u t i n e l y v i s i t e d upon them i n t h e form o f f l o o d s ,  hurricanes,  tsunamis,  etc.  This i s  why,  the s m a l l i s l a n d nations are j o i n i n g f o r c e s t o f i g h t f o r t h e i r  r i g h t s a t an i n t e r n a t i o n a l  l e v e l . A s h e and G r i f f i t h r e p o r t t h a t  "To  i m p l e m e n t s u s t a i n a b l e d e v e l o p m e n t p o l i c i e s and p r a c t i c e s , SIDS w i l l now  have  plans  to  develop,  that  resources, their  not but  several  only  and  i m p l e m e n t medium- a n d  integrate  i d e n t i f y the  limited  The  adopt  the  multiple  uses  long-term of  limited  types of development compatible  with  endowments".'^*  small  island  priority  developing  areas  which  states  include  (SIDS)  have  integrated  identified  coastal  zone  J.  management, w a s t e management, c o n s e r v a t i o n o f f r e s h w a t e r trade,  financial  mechanisms,  information,  r e s o u r c e s development, l e g a l instruments mechanisms.'^'  Ashe  and  Griffith  technology,  and r e l e v a n t  report  resources,  six  human  international  main  activities  designed to address these issues include: a Small I s l a n d Developing Information Centres;  Network  a  Programme  Small  (SIDSNET); R e g i o n a l  Island  (SIDS/TAP);  Developing a  national  Sustainable  States  Technical  Disaster  e)  f i n a n c i a l resources  Local Planning As  all,  *^  of  discussed the  OECD  Assistance  Emergency  n e g o t i a t i o n f o r more e q u i t a b l e t e r m s o f t r a d e ; and o f new  Development  the  Fund;  acquisition  f r o m b i l a t e r a l and m u l t i l a t e r a l  donors.  Responses  i n t h e OECD r e p o r t member  countries  i n C h a p t e r 3, have  A s h e and  Griffith  (1994),  Op.  A s h e and  Griffith  (1994),  Ibid.;page  adopted  C i t ; page 55.  55.  many, b u t coastal  not zone  management  programs,  objectives  with  N e t h e r l a n d s has corral  the  some  local  integrating  concerns  experienced  sea,  this  communities. Ince  great  i s not  a  national  and  (1990) s t a t e s t h a t  and  While  the  priorities.  success with viable  policies  option  i t s sea for  walls  many  to  coastal  while,  ... i t may be possible to reduce the cost by c o n c e n t r a t i n g e f f o r t s on c h e a p e r o p t i o n s t h a n m a s s i v e s e a defences, i n c l u d i n g the r e v i v a l of o l d t e c h n o l o g i e s f o r b u i l d i n g and food production ... [t]hese are often d e s i g n e d t o cope w i t h f l o o d i n g i n s t e a d of s h u t t i n g i t o u t . I n t h e same way, i t may be p o s s i b l e t o c h a n n e l f l o o d i n g t o encourage l a r g e a r e a s of land near sea l e v e l t o s i l t up r a t h e r t h a n t r y t o s h u t o u t t h e sea.'^°  As  Ince  crucially  upon  information levels".  points  out,  Third  actions  World  and  countries  t o develop coherent plans  He  states  that  at  plans  present  like  having  these  enough  "depend  time  for dealing with r i s i n g estimates  of  the  and sea  greenhouse  e f f e c t , t h e T h i r d W o r l d c o u n t r i e s h a v e up t o f i f t y y e a r s t o p r e p a r e for  the  worst  effects.  Pier  Vellinga  of  Delft  Hydraulics,  N e t h e r l a n d s , " w a r n s a g a i n s t common human m e a s u r e s , s u c h a s b u i l d i n g s e a w a l l s , r i v e r embankments and water",  other defences against the  s t a t i n g t h a t once begun, t h e y w i l l  likely  become h a r d  deal with, requiring further building, restoration, higher and  while  technically feasible  in  most  cases,  rising  also  to  dikes,  requiring  e c o n o m i c , s o c i a l and a d m i n i s t r a t i v e c o n d i t i o n s t h a t p r o b a b l y c a n n o t be met  i n many c a s e s . " '  Ince  (1990), O p . C i t . ; pages 60-61.  Ince  (1990), I b i d . ; pages 58-60.  In  his article,  "UNCED C o n v e n t i o n .  changes  i n t h e wind"  absence  of  an  jurisdictions  Glen  Rollans  international that  (1992)  system  s e t tough  Changes i n t h e weather,  of  reports economic  emission-reduction  that  "In the  instruments, targets  may  [ q u i c k l y ] f i n d t h e m s e l v e s on t h e m o r a l h i g h g r o u n d a t t h e c o s t o f a  competitive  marketplace".'^^  Giacomo Capobianco, p r e s i d e n t  In  Ontario,  f o r example.  Dr.  a n d CEO o f t h e C o a l A s s o c i a t i o n o f  C a n a d a s t a t e s " t h e y h a v e s e t ... a 20 p e r c e n t r e d u c t i o n b y 2000... [ b u t ] t h e y h a v e n ' t come t o g r i p s w i t h t h e f a c t t h a t a 20 p e r c e n t r e d u c t i o n i s bloody p a i n f u l . says,  By c o n t r a s t , t h e C l e a r A i r S t r a t e g y  ^ U n t i l we know how much i t ' s g o i n g  t o c o m m i t t o a n y t h i n g " . "'^^  Glen Rollans f u r t h e r r e p o r t s that the  n e g o t i a t o r s o f t h e climate convention for  reducing  the United  emissions  t o c o s t , we're n o t going  "left  out s p e c i f i c  targets  o f greenhouse g a s e s , on t h e i n s i s t e n c e o f  S t a t e s " a n d t o many o b s e r v e r s ,  t h i s remains " i t s f a t a l  flaw".""  G l e n R o l l a n s ( 1 9 9 4 ) , I b i d ; q u o t i n g Doug B r u c h e t o f t h e C a n a d i a n P e t r o l e u m I n d u s t r y who s a t o n t h e a d v i s o r y c o m m i t t e e s t o b o t h t h e C l e a n A i r S t r a t e g y f o r A l b e r t a (CASA) a n d t h e C a n a d i a n D e l e g a t i o n t o t h e c l i m a t e c h a n g e c o n v e n t i o n n e g o t i a t i o n s ; p a g e 16. Glen Rollans  (1992),  Op. C i t . ; p a g e 1 7 .  Table 2  Convention o n Climate Ciiange: CO2 E m i s s i o n s R e d u c t i o n S c h e d u l e Country  Target  Australia  Interim goal: stabilization at 1988 levels by year 2000, and 20% reduction by year 2005.  Austria  20% reduction by year 2005.  Canada  Stabilize emissions at 1990 levels by year 2000.  France  Stabilize CO2 emissions at 1990 levels by year 2005.  Germany  30% reduction in CO2 emissions by year 2005.  Japan  Stabilize at 1990 "per capita levels" by 1995.  Netherlands  Stabilization target of 1989-90 levels by 1995, with 3 to 5% reduction by year 2000.  New Zealand  Reduction of 20% from 1990 levels by year 2000.  Norway  Stabilization during the 1990s.  Sweden  Annual reduction of 5 to 10 million tonnes CO2.  United Kingdom  Stabilize CO2 emissions at 1990 levels by year 2005.  United States  No commitment on CO2.  S o u r c e : G l e n R o l l a n s ( 1 9 9 2 ) , "UNCED C o n v e n t i o n . C h a n g e s i n t h e w e a t h e r , c h a n g e s i n t h e w i n d " i n E n v i r o n m e n t News. ( A l b e r t a Environment; Canada); page 15.  In  h i s b o o k . O u r Common S e a s .  (1990), b e l i e v e s discussions  that  on c l i m a t e  theattention  Coasts  i nCrisis.  currently  Hinrichsen  being generated by  change a n d r i s i n g s e a l e v e l s i s a p o s i t i v e  one, a n d I f t h i s obsession with t h e l i k e l y impacts o fs e a l e v e l r i s e - e s p e c i a l l y f o r l o w - l y i n g i s l a n d s and c o r a l a t o l l s - g e n e r a t e s b e t t e r management o f c o a s t a l a r e a s , s o much t h e b e t t e r . I t i s the o n l y c o a s t a l i s s u e , f o r t h e moment, which i s capable o f a r o u s i n g a t r u l y international response. One o f the b e s t r e s u l t s t h a t  c o u l d emerge f r o m a l l t h e  c o n c e r n o v e r c l i m a t e c h a n g e a n d s w o l l e n s e a s would be the development o f workable c o a s t a l management p l a n s f o r a l l developing countries with a c o a s t l i n e . P r o p e r , w e l l c o n c e i v e d a n d e x e c u t e d c o a s t a l z o n e management s t r a t e g i e s would permit b i l l i o n s of people t o u t i l i z e their r e s o u r c e s b e t t e r a n d g i v e them t i m e t o p r e p a r e f o r r i s i n g s e a s . Such p l a n s would a l s o a l l o w c o a s t a l p o p u l a t i o n s t o b u i l d f o r a s u s t a i n a b l e f u t u r e . Perhaps more i m p o r t a n t l y , they might h e l p g i v e m i l l i o n s o f the p o o r e s t people, those c o n s t a n t l y l i v i n g on the edge o f s u r v i v a l , a sustainable present! [Emphasis a d d e d ] .  Thus,  t o incorporate  practices,  climate  business  and  change  personal,  information requires  into  no  our d a i l y  less  than  a  f u n d a m e n t a l r e v a m p i n g o f how we c u r r e n t l y v i e w , a n d o p e r a t e i n o u r world. both  I t requires  public  different  and p r i v a t e  context,  environmental states,  a restructuring  like  institutions,  t o enable us t o i n c o r p o r a t e  a n d d e s i g n more r e a l i s t i c  issues.  " I would  of our s o c i a l  Environmentalist  data  ina  solutions t o global  Mia  t o be a b l e t o s a y , " H e r e  Benjamin-Robinson are five  things.  E v e r y c o m m u n i t y d o them a n d y o u ' v e g o t no p r o b l e m . " B u t i t r e a l l y d o e s c a l l f o r a much d e e p e r m i n d s e t c h a n g e t h a n j u s t s i m p l y h a v i n g a  composter.""*  Calgary's Margaret  Durnin, of t h e  Development  Education Co-ordinating Council of Alberta, concurs: A s u s t a i n a b i l i t y m o d e l a s k s p e o p l e t o s a y , "Okay, w h a t i s t h e g r e a t e r g o o d — g r e a t e r t h a n j u s t me? What's my r o l e i n t h e community?" And i f p e o p l e o n l y have t h e e n e r g y t o s t a r t on t h e i n d i v i d u a l l e v e l o f change, o f c h a n g i n g l i f e s t y l e s a n d h a b i t s , a n d maybe g o i n g i n t o t h e w o r k p l a c e a n d i n f l u e n c i n g t h a t , t h a t ' s g r e a t . B u t I t h i n k we h a v e  "* Don H i n r i c h s e n ( 1 9 9 0 ) , O u r Common S e a s . C o a s t s i n C r i s i s ( E a r t h s c a n P u b l i c a t i o n s L t d . ; London i n a s s o c i a t i o n w i t h t h e U n i t e d N a t i o n s E n v i r o n m e n t Programme, N a i r o b i ) ; p a g e s 19 a n d 2 1 . "* S c o t t R o l l a n s ( 1 9 9 2 ) , " A l b e r t a a t UNCED. B r i n g i n g R i o Home" i n E n v i r o n m e n t News, V o l . 1 5 , No. 3 ( A l b e r t a E n v i r o n m e n t ; Canada); page 20.  t o l e a r n t o focus p r o d u c e change.  a  l o t more  on  working  together  to  You c a n h a v e an e n t i r e c o u n t r y r e c y c l i n g , and n e v e r s e e a r e a l c h a n g e i n how f o r e s t r y p o l i c y w o r k s ... I f y o u ' r e n o t w i l l i n g t o g e t o u t t h e r e and be t h e a c t i v i s t , t h e n y o u c a n s u p p o r t t h e p e o p l e who a r e . Make some d o n a t i o n s , g i v e i t a p r i o r i t y s o t h a t y o u ' r e s u p p o r t i n g some p e o p l e who a r e d o i n g p o l i c y - o r i e n t e d work, because i t ' s t h e hardest thing to fund raise f o r and i t ' s super i m p o r t a n t . "' E n v i r o n m e n t and development w o r k e r s b e l i e v e " i t ' s i m p o r t a n t t o yourself  as  part  r a d i c a l working  ii)  P l a n n i n g as  of  a  grassroots  movement,  and  not  just  see  as  a  in isolation"."*  i f today mattered  I n h i s a r t i c l e , "Myths and R e a l i t i e s o f G l o b a l C l i m a t e Change" James B r u c e  (1991) s t a t e s t h a t .  The p r o b l e m o f g l o b a l w a r m i n g i s r e a l and r e c o g n i z e d by a s t r o n g s c i e n t i f i c consensus. I t has been c a l l e d t h e m o s t s e r i o u s g l o b a l e n v i r o n m e n t a l t h r e a t o f t h i s o r any other generation. In s p i t e of t h i s r e a l i t y , there are significant institutional barriers and other d i f f i c u l t i e s , i n b o t h d e v e l o p e d and d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s , t o p u t ... a p r o g r a m i n p l a c e . As a V e r m o n t , USA mayor has s a i d , " I t i s e a s i e r t o t h i n k g l o b a l l y than t o a c t locally"."' D u r i n g a n i n t e r n a t i o n a l w o r k s h o p on e n e r g y and c l i m a t e h e l d i n t h e Federal  Republic  concluded ...  of  Germany  (1980),  the  Preface  to  i t s findings  that, i n t h e d e c a d e s a h e a d , d e c i s i o n s have t o be  "' Margaret pages 20-21.  Durnin  quoted  S c o t t R o l l a n s (1992);  i n Scott Rollans  I b i d . ; page  made t o  (1992),  Ibid;  21.  "' J a m e s P. B r u c e ( 1 9 9 1 ) , " M y t h s and R e a l i t i e s o f C l i m a t e C h a n g e " , i n E c o d e c i s i o n , V o l . 1 ( 1 9 9 1 ) ; p a g e 92.  Global  reduce o r a v e r t t h e impacts of c l i m a t i c change before a l l the answers have been obtained. A l t h o u g h a c l i m a t e i m p a c t a s s e s s m e n t p r o g r a m i s f a c e d w i t h many u n c e r t a i n t i e s , i t n e v e r t h e l e s s has to be s t a r t e d now, because s o c i e t y cannot a f f o r d to wait u n t i l a l l v a r i a b l e s are q u a n t i f i e d to the s a t i s f a c t i o n of a l l p a r t i e s involved.''*" [ E m p h a s i s added] Schneider  f u r t h e r s t a t e s t h a t " i f s u c h s t u d i e s a r e n o t made, t h e n  s o c i e t y w i l l merely "perform the experiment" of unprepared, "postcrisis"  adaptation w i t h l i t t l e  damage o r  maximize a v a i l a b l e  expressed  i n h e r work.  lead time advantage"""  to minimize As  preventable  Boulding  so  aptly  P e o p l e don't j u s t adapt t o change, t h e y c r e a t e new r e a l i t i e s " ... "When i n t e r e s t s c o n f l i c t i n t h e f a c e o f environmental and r e s o u r c e changes, whether between h o u s e h o l d s o r n a t i o n s , what d e t e r m i n e s t h e d e v e l o p m e n t o f s k i l l s of c o n f l i c t r e s o l u t i o n r a t h e r than a r e s o r t to v i o l e n c e ? What i s t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n societal v u l n e r a b i l i t y and s o c i e t a l c r e a t i v i t y ? . ' * ^ T h i s b r i n g s us issues  b a c k t o o u r e a r l i e r d i s c u s s i o n on  in relation  t o c l i m a t e change i m p a c t s .  M a r t i n H o l d g a t e , h e a d o f l U C N , who E x p e r t s on  C l i m a t e Change and  t h r e a t t o T h i r d World way  the world w i l l  the  1989  Sea  security  According  to  Dr.  c h a i r s t h e Commonwealth G r o u p o f L e v e l R i s e , "the  size  c o u n t r i e s p o i n t s t o a b a s i c imbalance  d e a l w i t h t h e g l o b a l warming problem.  Commonwealth S m a l l  States Conference  I n C h e n , B o u l d i n g , and S c h n e i d e r , S c i e n c e R e s e a r c h and C l i m a t e Change, c i t i n g and W i l l i a m s , J . ( e d s ) 1980, I n t e r a c t i o n s (D. R e i d e l P u b l i . Co., D o r d r e c h t , H o l l a n d ; Schneider  global  ( 1 9 8 3 ) , I b i d ; page  on  of  this  i n the He  told  Sea-level Rise  E d i t o r s (1983), S o c i a l B a c h , W., P a n k r a t h , J . o f E n e r g y and C l i m a t e . p a g e V I I I ) ; p a g e 13.  14.  '*2 E l i s e B o u l d i n g ( 1 9 8 3 ) , " S e t t i n g New R e s e a r c h A g e n d a s : A S o c i a l S c i e n t i s t ' s V i e w " i n R o b e r t S. Chen, E l i s e B o u l d i n g and S t e p h e n S c h n e i d e r , E d i t o r s . S o c i a l S c i e n c e R e s e a r c h and C l i m a t e Change (D. R e i d e l P u b l i s h i n g Company; D o r d r e c h t , B o s t o n ) ; p a g e 8.  that  t h e t r a n s i t i o n a l c o s t s o f slowing o r h a l t i n g  which  cause  world".''*3 it  global  warming  will  fall  R e g a r d l e s s o f whether t h i s  implies  the generation  r e l a t i o n s regarding Interviews  discussions  with world  Organization's  of further  leaders  publication.  mainly belief  on  t h e emissions t h e developed  i s accurate  tensions  or not,  i n international  o f development and e q u i t y  included Climate  Development. World l e a d e r s ' viewpoints.  i n t h e World Change.  issues.  Meterological  Environment  and  (1992) c o v e r e d a w i d e r a n g e  of t o p i c s i n c l u d i n g the i m p l i c a t i o n s o f c l i m a t e change, ozone l a y e r d e p l e t i o n , a i r p o l l u t i o n and other development proposed  programmes,  t o mitigate  Foreword, Professor backgrounds thread  and a c t i v i t i e s  the potential  adverse  "their  words  The i m p o r t a n t  t o date  effects.  or  In the  the diversity of convey  o f hope, o f a s p i r a t i o n s , as w e l l as a c a l l cooperation."'''*  socio-economic  undertaken  Obasi's states that d e s p i t e  of the interviewees,  international can  related issues,  point  a  common  f o r a c t i o n and here  i s , how  s o c i e t y c o l l e c t i v e l y respond i n a c o n s t r u c t i v e and e f f e c t i v e  manner t o p e n d i n g c l i m a t e  change i s s u e s , e s p e c i a l l y on t h e l o c a l  level?  "3  Ince  ( 1 9 9 0 ) , Op. C i t . ; p a g e s 6 0 - 6 1 .  W o r l d M e t e r o l o g i c a l O r g a n i z a t i o n (1992) , C l i m a t e Change. E n v i r o n m e n t and Development. World l e a d e r ' s v i e w p o i n t s . (WMO-No. 772, S e c r e t a r i a t o f t h e W o r l d M e t e r o l o g i c a l O r g a n i z a t i o n ; G e n e v a , S w i t z e r l a n d ) ; pg. v i i i .  i i i ) Recommendations  f o r Action  I t i sthe contention planning,  o r planners,  of t h i s author that i t i s not t h e r o l e of  t o maintain  t h e s t a t u s quo a s i s o f t e n t h e  c a s e , b u t r a t h e r t o e n a b l e i t t o c h a n g e . We d o n o t l i v e i n a s t a t i c environment continue  but rather  ever-evolving  one  s o why  do  change such as g l o b a l warming?  p o l i c y makers, government b u r e a u c r a t s ,  Planners  elected  political  r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s , b u s i n e s s l e a d e r s , c i t y and r e g i o n a l p l a n n e r s , academics.  To d a t e m o s t o f t h e i r e f f o r t s a n d r e s o u r c e s  concentrated and of  we  t o s u p p o r t and encourage t h o s e a c t i v i t i e s w h i c h a r e t h e  causes o f r a p i d c l i m a t e include  i n an  upon t h e a c c u m u l a t i o n o f d a t a ,  elaborate  revamping o f p o l i c i e s t o minimize negative this  activity  occurring  on t h e g l o b a l  and  have been  discussions,  impacts, with  and n a t i o n a l  most  levels.  R e v i s i o n s o f c o a s t a l z o n e management s t r a t e g i e s , a n d t h e r e g u l a t i o n o f some l o c a l e c o n o m i c a c t i v i t i e s a r e e s s e n t i a l l y r e a c t i v e m e a s u r e s t o prevent t h e worst-case impacts o f development i n environmentally sensitive  zones.  What i s n o t b e i n g of  climate  change.  We  targeted should  f o r change a r e t h e p r i m a r y be w o r k i n g  t o change and  causes replace  t h o s e a c t i v i t i e s w h i c h c a u s e COj i n t h e f i r s t p l a c e . We m a i n t a i n t h e status  quo by c o n t i n u i n g  public transit,  t o support p r i v a t e  by d e l a y i n g  and d i s c o u r a g i n g  vehicle  usage  t h e development and  i m p l e m e n t a t i o n o f a l t e r n a t i v e forms o f energy u s e , and by to get tough with g l o b a l warming.  technolgies  over  failing  and i n d u s t r i e s which c o n t r i b u t e t o  What i s most c r i t i c a l l y needed a r e t r a n s i t i o n a l  measures  t o accomodate  needed  changes  i n economic  and p r i v a t e  a c t i v i t i e s w h i c h cause g l o b a l warming; A t t a c k t h e cause o f problems t o p e r m a n e n t l y r e - i n v e n t "how" we "do b u s i n e s s " a n d l i v e o n a d a i l y basis.  a)  Implementing T r a n s i t i o n a l  A c t i o n s on N a t i o n a l & L o c a l L e v e l s  Where, on t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l common  ground  and n e g o t i a t e  level,  consensus  behaviour,  n a t i o n a l governments s h o u l d  practices,  and f i n a n c i a l  investments  t h e o b j e c t i v e i s t o seek f o r acceptable seek  t o review  economic policies,  b y a s k i n g how b e h a v i o u r  home c o n t r i b u t e s t o t h e g l o b a l a n d r e g i o n a l i m p a c t s  at  o f atmospheric  change a s a r e s u l t o f i t s chosen methods o f d e v e l o p m e n t and o t h e r activities.  F o r i n s t a n c e , a n a t i o n a l government s h o u l d a s k ,  1.  How d o e s t h i s new " l a y e r " o f i n f o r m a t i o n o n a t m o s p h e r i c change a f f e c t e x i s t i n g economic, s o c i a l , and r e s o u r c e p o l i c i e s , i n c l u d i n g those p e r t a i n i n g t o p r e s e r v a t i o n and conservation?  2.  Are there specific policy guidelines already i n place with regard to linking environmental impacts and d e v e l o p m e n t s t r a t e g i e s , a n d do t h e y a d d r e s s t h e i s s u e o f s u s t a i n a b l e development? I f n o t , i s p r e p a r a t o r y work u n d e r w a y t o do s o ? a n d . What g u i d e l i n e s a n d c r i t e r i a s h o u l d be considered?'"* I f t h e g u i d e l i n e s a r e a l r e a d y i n p l a c e , how a d e q u a t e a r e the g u i d e l i n e s and c r i t e r i a ? a n d . What specific o b j e c t i v e s do t h e y meet?  3.  I s t h e r e a c o n f l i c t o f i n t e r e s t between t y p e s o f economic a c t i v i t i e s e n g a g e d i n a n d t h e new c o n c e r n s a n d o b j e c t i v e s o v e r c l i m a t e c h a n g e ? How w o u l d t h e new p o l i c i e s a f f e c t  " G u i d e l i n e s " r e f e r t o g e n e r a l i t i e s o f p r a c t i c e which s h o u l d b e c o n s i d e r e d , w h i l e " c r i t e r i a " r e f e r s t o more s p e c i f i c r u l e s o r r e g u l a t i o n s w h i c h must be met. T h e s e t e r m s h a v e a l s o b e e n r e f e r r e d t o throughout p o l i c y l i t e r a t u r e a s " p r i n c i p l e s " and "obligations".  existing i n s t i t u t i o n s and t h e d e l i v e r y o f p r o g r a m s ? , a n d w o u l d t h e new p o l i c i e s a f f e c t economic a c t i v i t i e s ?  existing existing  4.  How m i g h t e x i s t i n g i n s t i t u t i o n s a n d l o c a l p l a n n e r s b e t t e r utilize this new knowledge t o enable itself to restructure i n order to eliminate conflicts and o b s o l e s c e n c e w i t h i n t h e system, k e e p i n g i t s eye f i r m l y on future scenarios?  5.  What t r a n s i t i o n a l a c t i v i t y c a n be a d o p t e d t o phase out d a m a g i n g e c o n o m i c a c t i v i t y u n t i l more e c o l o g i c a l l y sound t e c h n o l o g i e s a r e d e v e l o p e d and implemented?  On t h e l o c a l  level,  planners should a c t as e n a b l e r s ,  aiding  t h e i r n a t i o n a l counterparts t o b r i n g into implementation a cohesive agenda  which  policies.  compliments,  instead  of competing  with,  national  By p e r f o r m i n g t h e r o l e o f " e n a b l e r " p l a n n e r s ,  including  t h o s e who s e r v e a s p o l i c y m a k e r s a n d e l e c t e d o f f i c i a l s , integrity existing  o f t h e systems institutions  to  which  they  survive  are serving.  v i a the  protect the By  integration  i n f o r m a t i o n , new c i r c u m s t a n c e s , a n d new m e t h o d o l o g i e s  enabling of  new  planners can  p r e s e r v e t h e means b y w h i c h i t s s o c i e t y c a n s u r v i v e . P l a n n e r s s e r v e as  enablers  themselves  when  they  teach  those  t o s t r e t c h beyond e x i s t i n g  progressive,  and  who  are less  informed  than  l i m i t a t i o n s t o a c h i e v e more  hopefully, altruistic  goals.  Planners  o t h e r s by: *  b e i n g r e c e p t i v e t o new i d e a s a n d i n f o r m a t i o n ;  *  providing current information obtained networking;  *  p r o v i d i n g a forum f o r d i s c u s s i o n , r e v i e w , and i n t e g r a t i o n o f new i n f o r m a t i o n ;  *  p r o v i d i n g o p p o r t u n i t y t o d e s i g n new a n d more appropriate methodologies;  through  enable  b)  *  p r o v i d i n g support and s t r a t e g i e s ;  and n u r t u r a n c e  o f new i d e a s  *  s u b j e c t i n g what we do a n d why we d o r e g u l a r and r i g o r o u s s e l f - e x a m i n a t i o n ;  *  keeping abreast of current area of r e s p o n s i b i l i t y ;  *  being p o s i t i v e and p a t i e n t about initial e f f o r t s t o i n c o r p o r a t e new i d e a s a n d m e t h o d s ;  *  possessing  *  by blending the best of scientific methodologies i ni t s search f o r t r u t h w i t h t h e best aspects of s p i r i t u a l i t y , r e s p e c t i n g t h e integratedness of a l l l i f e .  *  a n d , most i m p o r t a n t l y , by l o b b y i n g a g a i n s t t h e use of additional financial resources i n projects, infrastructure, and economic a c t i v i t i e s w h i c h support t h e o l d s t a t u s quo o f development.  research  i t  to  i n their  integrity;  Implementing T r a n s i t i o n a l A c t i o n s i n C o a s t a l Zone Management Giving  developing planner following  special  consideration  countries,  must type  a c t as  i t i s here an  enabler,  of information  into  to role more  than  working  of planning anywhere, to  i t s coastal  i nthe that the  incorporate the zone  management  plans:  F o r e i g n A i d Programmes, A c t i o n Required By Country, and By P r o j e c t : *  I d e n t i f y p h y s i c a l zones o f r i s k , r a n k on a s c a l e ( i . e . c o a s t a l zones, f l o o d p l a i n s ) ;  *  I d e n t i f y any p a s t and c u r r e n t macro-changes i n l a n d uses which h a v e i m p a c t e d upon a r e a , s i g n i f i c a n t l y c h a n g i n g p h y s i c a l environment [ i . e . flow of water, ground water table, s i g n i f i c a n t r e d u c t i o n i n n a t u r a l , i n d i g e n o u s v e g e t a t i o n and/or crops, changes i n soil quality, changes i n rainfall, p r e c i p i t a t i o n p a t t e r n s , t e m p e r a t u r e s , e s p e c i a l l y where seasons have been a d j u s t e d which a f f e c t p l a n t i n g o f c r o p s , seed  g e r m i n a t i o n and p o l l i n a t i o n , ( e . g . t h e N i l e i n E g y p t , no l o n g e r p o s s e s s e s a r e l i a b l e g r o w i n g t i m e t a b l e ; f l o o d i n g and s u b s i d e n c e i n B a n g k o k where g r o u n d t a b l e s h a v e b e e n a l t e r e d ; deforestation i n C h i n a ; impacts of p r e v i o u s bombing in V i e t n a m ; and i n A f r i c a t h e a f f e c t s o f s a l i n i z a t i o n o f s o i l s , drought, d e s e r t i f i c a t i o n ) ; *  Identify population demographic f a c t o r s  trends w i t h i n r e g i o n , types of growth, (age, g e n d e r , e t h i c composition);  *  Identify local and international Non-Governmental O r g a n i z a t i o n s (NGOs) w i t h e x p e r t i s e and c o n t a c t s w i t h i n r e g i o n and a r e a o f c o n c e r n ;  *  C o n d u c t and f u r t h e r u p d a t e d a t a a s s e s s m e n t o f c o a s t a l z o n e a r e a s [ i . e . r i s e or l o w e r i n g of sea l e v e l , f u r t h e r i n v a s i o n of b r a c k i s h water i n t o f r e s h water t a b l e s ] ;  *  N o t e any c h a n g e s i n t r a n s i t i o n z o n e s o f r e g i o n r e a n i m a l s i n b o t h r u r a l and u r b a n a r e a s ;  *  N o t e c l o u d c o v e r and p r e c i p i t a t i o n l e v e l s ; p o l l u t i o n ; u r b a n heat islands ( i n megacities e s p e c i a l l y ) ;  *  E v a l u a t e p r o j e c t s i n terms of s u s t a i n a b i l i t y of resources for various time frames (including scenarios);  *  E v a l u a t e e x p e c t e d a d d i t i o n a l l a n d p r e s s u r e s due t o p o p u l a t i o n i n c r e a s e s , r u r a l and u r b a n m i g r a t i o n p a t t e r n s , t h e e v o l u t i o n o r p r e s e n c e o f m e g a c i t i e s , and n a t u r a l a t t r i t i o n r a t e s ;  *  H i r e s t a f f , p r o j e c t m a n a g e r s and c o n s u l t a n t s f o r f i e l d w o r k w h i c h have a sound knowledge of e n v i r o n m e n t a l s u s t a i n a b i l i t y i s s u e s and k n o w l e d g e o f t h e p h y s i c a l e n v i r o n m e n t . R e q u i r e t h e d e v e l o p m e n t o f a m u l t i d i s c i p l i n a r y team i n c o r p o r a t i n g b o t h p h y s i c a l and s o c i a l s c i e n t i s t s , a s w e l l a s e n g i n e e r s and economists who are specially trained to think in an i n t e r d i s c i p l i n a r y manner.  vegetation,  existing multiple  I n a d d i t i o n t o t h e above recommendations, t h e f o l l o w i n g s h o u l d a l s o be  addressed:  *  Perception  o f s t r e s s and  r i s k by t h e  poor;  *  R o l e o f g e n d e r s i n c e women a r e t h e p r i m a r y m a n a g e r s , a d a p t e r s , and b u f f e r s i n t i m e s o f s h o r t a g e s and e c o n o m i c h a r d s h i p ;  *  Review e x i s t i n g recommendations from v a r i o u s  reports;  *  R o l e o f l o c a l NGOs, l o c a l c i t i z e n p a r t i c i p a t i o n t o c o l l e c t d a t a , g i v e i n p u t ( a l e s s e x p e n s i v e a n d more r e l i a b l e a p p r o a c h to improving existing data bank and p r o v i d e s built-in c o n s t i t u e n c y t o support f u t u r e programs, and i n a d d i t i o n , a i d s i n l o c a l awareness and e d u c a t i o n ) ; I n c o r p o r a t i o n o f l o c a l e x p e r t i s e o f indigenous populations who p o s s e s s s p e c i a l knowledge, i n s i g h t i n t o t h e i r r e g i o n s , and s u r v i v a l s k i l l s i n areas of r i s k ;  *  E d u c a t i o n a t home a n d a b r o a d , f o r t h e g e n e r a l business e s p e c i a l l y ("business as u s u a l " acceptable);  *  Governments spend t i m e r e - d e f i n i n g i t s ' terms o f "development" and " s u s t a i n a b i l i t y " b e f o r e u n d e r t a k i n g a n y f u t u r e p r o j e c t s ;  *  W i d e r c o n s u l t a t i o n w h i c h i n c l u d e s NGOs, l o c a l r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s , world environmental bodies, not j u s t business interests. E x p a n d r o l e o f community p a r t i c i p a t i o n a n d r o l e o f women i n development; «  *  L i a i s o n w i t h a s s o c i a t e d p r o j e c t s , l o c a l l y and i n t e r n a t i o n a l l y w i t h r e g a r d t o p o l i c y development;  *  Co-ordination of environmental economic agendas.  These a c t i v i t i e s  should  policies  p u b l i c and f o r i s no longer  a n d mandates  be l e d b y a m u l t i d i s c i p l i n a r y  with  team w h i c h  combines t h e e x p e r t i s e o f both p h y s i c a l and s o c i a l s c i e n t i s t s , and e s p e c i a l l y t h o s e i n d i v i d u a l s f r o m g o v e r n m e n t , NGOs, a n d t h e p r i v a t e s e c t o r who h a v e e x p e r i e n c e  i nt h e area of n a t u r a l d i s a s t e r s .  It is  t h i s g r o u p o f p e o p l e who p o s s e s s " h a n d s - o n " e x p e r t i s e a n d s k i l l s , and  t h e r e f o r e c a n r e d f l a g t h e o r i e s o r a s s u m p t i o n s on t h e p a r t o f  other  t e a m members.  Leatherman  (1994) r e p o r t s t h a t " t h e r e h a v e b e e n f e w d e t a i l e d  studies of coastal vulnerability Connell,  Small  1991; P e r n e t t a ,  of small  1992).'**  island  In addition  states  (Roy a n d  t o t h e above  S t e p h e n P. L e a t h e r m a n ( 1 9 9 4 ) , " R i s i n g S e a L e v e l s a n d I s l a n d S t a t e s " , E c o d e c i s i o n . V o l . 11 ( W i n t e r 1 9 9 4 ) ; p a g e 54.  r e c o m m e n d a t i o n s , P a t r i c k Holmes o f I m p e r i a l C o l l e g e , London, s t a t e s t h a t "Sea  level  information  w h i c h n e e d t o be o b t a i n e d with  rising  seas",  and  i s o n l y one  of the types of  knowledge  by T h i r d W o r l d c o u n t r i e s w a n t i n g t o c o p e therefore  makes t h e  following additional  recommendations: [that] There ... be a set of " c o a s t a l management o b j e c t i v e s " s e t t i n g o u t j u s t what t h e c o u n t r y i n q u e s t i o n w a n t s t o a c h i e v e i n a war a g a i n s t r i s i n g s e a levels. S i n c e one o f t h e p o l i c y o p t i o n s , a s a l w a y s , i s t o do n o t h i n g , i t i s worth t h i n k i n g about areas of l a n d which i t m i g h t be e a s i e r t o s a c r i f i c e t h a n t o t r y s a v i n g . I n most c a s e s , however, t h e production of a d e t a i l e d r e g i s t e r o f t h e a s s e t s o f c o a s t a l a r e a s w i l l r e v e a l an o v e r w h e l m i n g number o f i m p o r t a n t i t e m s , f r o m t h e n a t i o n a l a i r p o r t t o t h e main s u b u r b s , where s u c h an o p t i o n i s p r o b a b l y n o t a r e a l i s t i c one. In t h i s case, the next e s s e n t i a l i s a d e t a i l e d database on t h e c o a s t a l e n v i r o n m e n t and t h e p r o c e s s e s w h i c h go on t h e r e , l o o k i n g a t p a t t e r n s o f e r o s i o n and d e p o s i t i o n and o t h e r i s s u e s . T h i s a l l o w s a l i s t o f o p t i o n s and c o s t s t o be d r a w n up, and e v e n t u a l l y l e a d s t o a programme o f p r o t e c t i v e w o r k s and o t h e r t a c t i c s . The r e a l p o i n t may be t o e n s u r e t h a t a s much a s p o s s i b l e o f t h e w o r k o f a d a p t i n g t o h i g h e r sea l e v e l s takes p l a c e w i t h i n the c o n t e x t o f t h e d e c i s i o n s w h i c h p e o p l e and o r g a n i z a t i o n s t a k e a l l t h e t i m e , even i n normal circumstances.'"^  In  looking  at  climate  i n t e r d i s c i p l i n a r y study Atmospheric  Studies  change  impacts  i n general  the  early  (1979) done f o r t h e A m e r i c a n A s s o c i a t i o n o f  (AAAS) r e p o r t e d  findings similar  to  that  Holmes, ... w h a t i s i m p o r t a n t f o r e c o n o m i c and s o c i a l i m p a c t s t u d i e s i s the r e g i o n a l response. Unfortunately, to p r e d i c t r e g i o n a l r e s p o n s e s o f t e m p e r a t u r e , r a i n f a l l and so f o r t h r e q u i r e s c l i m a t i c models of g r e a t e r c o m p l e x i t y and e x p e n s e - t h a n i s n e e d e d t o make g l o b a l l y a v e r a g e d p r e d i c t i o n s . N e v e r t h e l e s s , t h o s e few m o d e l s w h i c h h a v e been a p p l i e d t o t h i s problem tend t o suggest c e r t a i n P a t r i c k Holmes q u o t e s i n I n c e (1990),  Op.  C i t . ; page  62.  of  coherent features. These include generally wetter s u b t r o p i c a l and monsoonal r a i n b e l t s , l o n g e r growing seasons i n the high l a t i t u d e s , wetter springtimes i n high and m i d - l a t i t u d e s , a n d — most p r o b l e m a t i c a l l y f o r f u t u r e a g r i c u l t u r e i n developed c o u n t r i e s — d r i e r midsummer c o n d i t i o n s i n m i d - a n d some h i g h e r l a t i t u d e s (Manabe, W e t h e r a l d , S t o u f f e r ; 1981).'** Boulding  aptly  summarizes  the experience  p r o c e s s i n t h e i n t e r d i s c i p l i n a r y AAAS p r o j e c t .  of the  planning  She s t a t e s  every  s o c i a l s c i e n t i s t i n v o l v e d w i t h t h e p r o j e c t had a, . . . m i n d - s t r e t c h i n g experience i n c o n s i d e r i n g even a t t h e simplest descriptive level the climate-determining i n t e r a c t i o n s o f lithosphère, g e o s p h e r e , hydrosphere, c r y o s p h e r e , b i o s h p e r e , s o c i o s p h e r e , l o w e r atmosphere and stratosphere. [Finding that] the hard-soft dichotomy between t h e p h y s i c a l and t h e s o c i a l s c i e n c e s m e l t [ e d ] away i n t h e f a c e o f t h e p r e d i c t i o n - r e s i s t a n t c o m p l e x i t i e s of planetary climate processes. P r e d i c t a b i l i t y b e l o n g s i n t h e l a b o r a t o r y , o r when o n e i s d e a l i n g w i t h l a r g e - s c a l e p r o c e s s e s t a k i n g p l a c e under f a m i l i a r a n d w e l l - d e f i n e d c o n d i t i o n s . ... T h e e c o n o m i s t , s o c i o l o g i s t and t h e p s y c h o l o g i s t c a n p r e d i c t a s w e l l a s t h e p h y s i c i s t when t h e v a r i a b l e s a r e u n d e r c o n t r o l . I n t h e s t u d y o f t h e s e m a c r o l e v e l i n t e r a c t i v e p r o c e s s e s on w h i c h o u r s u r v i v a l a s a s p e c i e s may d e p e n d , we a r e a l l learners, from whatever discipline, including the d i s c i p l i n e o f t h e h u m a n i t i e s . We a l l need each other.""  iv)  F u t u r e Thoughts One o f t h e m o s t i n t e r e s t i n g p o i n t s r a i s e d r e g a r d i n g  the issue  o f " u n c e r t a i n t y " i n p l a n n i n g was t h e e a r l i e r comment b y D r o r (1986) in  "Planning  as Fuzzy Gambling: A R a d i c a l  with Uncertainty",  Perspective  on Coping  o f t h e tendency f o r " d e n i a l and maintenance" t o  occur i n s i t u a t i o n s of uncertainty.  Is the current  '** R o b e r t S. Chen, E l i s e B o u l d i n g , Op. C i t . ; p a g e 1 1 . E l i s e Boulding  new  a n d S. S c h n e i d e r  ( 1 9 8 3 ) , Op. C i t . ; p a g e 4.  philosophy  (1983),  and p o l i c y o b j e c t i v e o f " s u s t a i n a b l e d e v e l o p m e n t " r e a l l y a f o r m o f denial  —  o f another  uglier  truth,  t h a t perhaps  situations are  worse than those being r e v e a l e d t o t h e p u b l i c , and furthermore, i s it  p l a u s i b l e t h a t t h e e n v i r o n m e n t a l systems won't r e m a i n  i n tack  d e s p i t e o u r b e s t e f f o r t s t o promote " s u s t a i n a b l e development"? I s the  trend t o finally  management m e r e l y  address  environmental  a clever delay t a c t i c ,  knowledge  o f systems  an attempt t o " m a i n t a i n "  t h e e x i s t i n g s t a t u s quo w i t h o u t r e a l l y making a s e r i o u s e f f o r t t o develop  a new p a r a d i g m  surviving  of thinking  i n a r a p i d l y changing  —  new w a y s  of living  and  world?  When c o n f r o n t e d b y new a n d r a d i c a l l y  different  information  t h a n a n t i c i p a t e d , i t i s common f o r p e o p l e , o r g a n i z a t i o n s , a n d t h e i r governments  to  considerably  hinders  serious crises. new  fall  into  a  and d e l a y s  psychological any r e a l  mind-trap  progress  I n an e f f o r t t o grasp and u l t i m a t e l y  i n f o r m a t i o n and r a p i d l y  changing  circumstances  to  which averting  respond t o , we  stumble  through a s e r i e s o f behavioural stages c h a r a c t e r i z e d as f o l l o w s . The  first  going  stage o c c u r s as something  wrong,  emotionally,  usually  after  physically,  i s s l o w l y being recognized as  massive  investment  and f i n a n c i a l l y .  h a s been  The t e n d e n c y  made,  i n this  f i r s t s t a g e i s t o deny t h e l i t t l e " s i g n s " , j u s t i f y t h e " a n o m a l i e s " , and  otherwise  convince  oneself  of  "coincidence"  or  one-time  phenomena b u t n o n e t h e l e s s c o n t i n u e t o deny t h e t r e n d .  The s e c o n d s t a g e a d m i t s s u g g e s t i o n s t h a t t h i n g s m i g h t b e g o i n g  astray  to  surface,  but again  either  denying  and/or  reserving  o p i n i o n o n some o r a l l a s p e c t s o f t h e p e r c e i v e d p r o b l e m ( s ) .  The  t h i r d s t a g e i s t o o p e n l y a d m i t t h e r e a r e i n d e e d some t r u e " b u g s " i n the  system  and order  further investigations  (usually  done  only  a f t e r a m i n o r c r i s i s o f s o r t s h a s o c c u r r e d ) , m e a n w h i l e c a r r y i n g on b u s i n e s s a s u s u a l f o r t h e most p a r t , b u t now p e r h a p s l o o k i n g o v e r one's s h o u l d e r  occasionally t o avoid being  totally  b l i n d s i d e d by  f u r t h e r unexpected contingencies.  The f o u r t h s t a g e i s t h e l i m i t i n g a n d / o r r e j e c t i n g o f c e r t a i n t y p e s o f i n f o r m a t i o n t o be i n c l u d e d i n t h e i m p a c t a n a l y s i s r e v i e w s ; and  later  fighting  tooth  and n a i l  any and a l l p r o p o s a l s  which  suggest a r a d i c a l d e p a r t u r e from t h e o r g a n i z a t i o n a l and o p e r a t i o n a l s t a t u s quo.  T h i s i s f o l l o w e d by t h e f i n a l ,  when " t h e f u t u r e " a r r i v e s . myths; massive,  Reality  often painful  fifth  stage which i s  collapses a l l previously held  restructuring  occurs  t o the extent  t h a t a l l o b s o l e t e s y s t e m s a r e d e f u n c t a n d r e p l a c e d b y new s y s t e m s which  better  thinking some  incorporate  occurs  time  progresses  t h e new  realities  paradigm  in  w h i c h i n t u r n now c r e a t e s a new s t a t u s q u o .  At  i n the future the cycle w i l l  —  repeat  of t h e very  environmentally, culturally  itself  as  life  a l o n g i t s own c o u r s e o f e v o l u t i o n .  In r e a l i t y the world i s s t r a d d l i n g a l l stages because  a  diverse  circumstances  but p o l i t i c a l l y ,  throughout  simultaneously  occurring  economically,  t h e w o r l d a t any g i v e n t i m e .  not  only  socially,  and  The c u l t u r a l  c o m p o n e n t i s e s p e c i a l l y i m p o r t a n t a n d n o t t o be l i g h t l y d i s m i s s e d - e a c h c u l t u r e i s i m m e r s e d i n i t s own v i s i o n o r i n t e r p r e t a t i o n o f r e a l i t y b a s e d upon i t s p a s t h i s t o r y , p h y s i c a l e n v i r o n m e n t ,  and t h e  r e l i g i o u s and s p i r i t u a l p h i l o s o p h i e s t h a t have e v o l v e d i n o r d e r t o cope w i t h such realities  The i n s t i t u t i o n a l  have evolved d i r e c t l y  worldview. quo  realities.  responses  t o these  out of that culture's  particular  Some c u l t u r e s r e l y h e a v i l y u p o n m a i n t a i n i n g t h e s t a t u s  w h i l e o t h e r s r e g a r d t h e f u t u r e a s more i m p o r t a n t ; some h a v e a  long history,  some h a v e r e l a t i v e l y  young h i s t o r i e s .  Each  culture  p l a c e s d i f f e r e n t " v a l u e s " upon t h e i r p h y s i c a l e n v i r o n m e n t s , r e s o u r c e s , and most i m p o r t a n t l y t h e i r v e r y h u m a n i t y — human  life,  often  further  complicated  by  their  the value of  i s s u e s o f gender and  equity.  The result  environmental  and s o c i a l  o f o u r economic  behaviour  activities. largely  especially  t h a t have a r i s e n  assumes b o t h  H o w e v e r , many o f t h e i m p a c t s  out of our control  behaviour,  impacts  past  as a  and c u r r e n t  i n the future w i l l  t o stop because o f our p a s t  economic  i f we " c o n t i n u e b u s i n e s s a s u s u a l " .  Human  a c t i v i t i e s have unleashed  a chain r e a c t i o n o f a magnitude which  are  a n d we  powerless  to  stop,  criticisms  of  being  responding  t o pending  merely  have  reactive  crises,  become  prey  politicians  rather than  be  to and  our  we own  planners  p r o a c t i v e agents  in  c o n t r o l o f o u r own d e s t i n y . The l o c a l , n a t i o n a l , a n d i n t e r n a t i o n a l pleas  f o r action  and  assistance  v i a slogans  such  as  "Think  G l o b a l l y , A c t L o c a l l y " , a n d "Reduce, R e u s e , a n d R e c y c l e " c a n o n l y  hope t o  soften  environment. which  i n e v i t a b l e blow t o  climate  the  activities,  l i v e l i h o o d s and  It  the  current  state  need  and  to  eliminate  replace  them w i t h  harmful  and  environmental-friendly  i t s r e l a t e d impacts w i l l  cultural  entity will  human p r o b l e m s ,  capabilities.  A f t e r two  and  be  respond according  within  the  d e c a d e s o f d e b a t e on  suffered  by  confronted  a few  p l a y e r s , of v a r i o u s  a l l . It by  what  would  seem  context the  Boulding  (1983)  that  refers  we to  and  e n v i r o n m e n t a l orders.'^"  s t a g e w h e r e i n human s o c i e t y c a n "cultures"  alter  the  current  individually and  climate  environment.  successful w i l l  longer change  On  require  a  communities be  measures cope w i t h  no one  are  required  changes t o  " r i g h t way",  but  own  of  its  own  battlefield  currently  the  "Global  information,  have reached  i s to  so  on  the  significantly  more p o s i t i v e n o t e , an  and  afford to preserve i t s  openness t o o u t s i d e  i d e a s , as w e l l as o u t s i d e e f f o r t t o h e l p  Transitional  will  i f global  no  its  are as  P e r h a p s we  to  stripes,  Problématique", c o m p r i s e d o f i n t e r n a t i o n a l e c o n o m i c , cultural,  Each  environment, i t  e x t r e m e s and  then,  global  sufficient.  b r o u g h t us t o the b r i n k of a p h i l o s o p h i c a l g l o b a l  c o n t r o l l e d by  and  lifestyles.  c h a n g e and  physical  the  economic  i s n o t p r u d e n t t o assume t h a t a s i n g l e a p p r o a c h t o  g e o g r a p h i c and  own  of  What i s n e e d e d i s b e t t e r d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g s t r a t e g i e s  acknowledge  private  has  the  a  industry  to  be help  i n d i v i d u a l s progress. local and  level  to  lifestyles.  help There  i n s t e a d a m y r i a d o f " b e t t e r ways".  some o f w h i c h transitional the  have  been  discussed  i n this  paper.  m e a s u r e s now e v e n t u a l l y we w i l l  By  enacting  a l l be b e t t e r o f f i n  long run.  The genre  challenge then  i s , t o change,  ideas,  values,  f o r p l a n n i n g and a l l p l a n n e r s o f e v e r y  t o be more i n f o r m e d , t o be more o p e n t o new  and approaches  t o managing d a i l y  life,  a n d t o be  committed  t o c h a n g i n g o u r ways o f d o i n g b u s i n e s s . I t i s i n o n l y  planning  f o r the future  that  we  are capable  of  successfully  m a n a g i n g p r e s e n t r e s o u r c e s . The f a r t h e r i n t o t h e f u t u r e o n e l o o k s , the  more l i k e l y  one c a n be g u a r a n t e e d a l i f e t i m e  proud t o claim. measure principle  o f w h i c h one i s  T h i s i s t r u e , b e c a u s e t h e v a l u e s y s t e m b y w h i c h we  our true  worth  by which  we  as i n d i v i d u a l s make o u r p l a n s ,  r e v e r t back t o i n t i m e s o f c r i s i s .  will  form  base  the overriding  our decisions,  and  F i r m l y entrenched v a l u e s which  s u p p o r t and s u s t a i n l i f e p r o t e c t us from b a c k s l i d i n g and a i d us i n successfully themselves.  resisting  temptations  which  will  always  present  One s u c c e s s f u l l y l i v e d d a y a d d e d t o a n o t h e r l e a d s t o  a s e r i e s o f many s u c c e s s f u l d a y s , w e e k s , m o n t h s a n d y e a r s . I n s h o r t a more s u c c e s s f u l  future.  BIBLIOGRAPHY A b r a h a m s o n , Dean E d w i n ( 1 9 8 9 ) , E d i t o r . The C h a l l e n g e o f G l o b a l Warming. ( I s l a n d P r e s s ; Washington, D . C ; C o v e l o , C a l i f o r n i a ) . A r r h e n i u s , E r i k a n d Thomas W. W a l t z ( 1 9 9 0 ) . W o r l d B a n k D i s c u s s i o n P a p e r , No. 7 8 . The G r e e n h o u s e E f f e c t . I m p l i c a t i o n s f o r E c o n o m i c D e v e l o p m e n t . (The W o r l d Bank; W a s h i n g t o n , D . C ) . A s h e , J o h n W. a n d Mark D. G r i f f i t h (1994). "The B a r b a d o s Conference f o r t h e S u s t a i n a b l e Development o f S m a l l Island D e v e l o p i n g S t a t e s (SIDS): P o s s i b l e Outcomes" i n E c o d e c i s i o n . V o l . 1 5 , No. 3 ( J a n u a r y , 1 9 9 4 ) . A u s u b e l , J e s s e a n d A s i t K. B i s w a s , E d i t o r s ( 1 9 8 0 ) . 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