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Planners and planning for climate change : an examination of sea level rise issues for coastal settlements Moore, Janet Linda 1994

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PLANNERS AND PLANNING FOR CLIMATE CHANGE. AN EXAMINATION OF SEA LEVEL RISE ISSUES FOR COASTAL SETTLEMENTS by JANET LINDA MOORE Hons. B.A,, York U n i v e r s i t y , 1988 A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTERS OF ARTS IN PLANNING i n THE FACULTY OF GRADUATE STUDIES THE SCHOOL OF COMMUNITY AND REGIONAL PLANNING We a c c e p t t h i s t h e s i s as c o n f o r m i n g /'6o^the requ4|red ^ ; t a r ^ a r d THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA May 1994 @ J a n e t L i n d a Moore, 1994 In p r e s e n t i n g this thesis in partial ful f i lment of t h e r e q u i r e m e n t s for an a d v a n c e d d e g r e e at t h e U n i v e r s i t y of Bri t ish C o l u m b i a , I agree that t h e Library shall m a k e it freely avai lable for re ference a n d s tudy. I further agree that p e r m i s s i o n for extens ive c o p y i n g o f this thesis for s c h o l a r l y p u r p o s e s m a y b e g r a n t e d b y the h e a d of m y d e p a r t m e n t o r b y his o r her representat ives . It is u n d e i s t o o d that c o p y i n g o r p u b l i c a t i o n o f this thesis for f inancial gain shall n o t b e a l l o w e d w i t h o u t my w r i t t e n p e r m i s s i o n . Department offScJKoCrQ Co-^f<vJVvNU^ ^^ C^g^ XoS T h e U n i v e r s i t y of Brit ish C o l u m b i a V a n c o u v e r , C a n a d a D a t e DE-e (2/88) ABSTRACT T h i s t h e s i s f o c u s e s on t h e p l a n n i n g p r o b l e m s o f a n t i c i p a t e d i n c r e a s e s i n average g l o b a l seas l e v e l s f o r c o a s t a l and i s l a n d c o m m u n i t i e s t h r o u g h o u t t h e w o r l d . The c o m b i n a t i o n o f g l o b a l warming r e p e r c u s s i o n s , i n c r e a s i n g p o p u l a t i o n g r o w t h , and t h e e v o l u t i o n o f m e g a c i t i e s a r e d i s c u s s e d i n t h e c o n t e x t o f s u s t a i n a b l e development i n communities a f f e c t e d by r i s i n g s e a l e v e l s . I n h e r e n t i n t h e s e d i s c u s s i o n s a r e t h e r e l a t e d p l a n n i n g , p o l i t i c a l , and economic i s s u e s o f e q u i t y and s e c u r i t y o f l o c a l , n a t i o n a l , and i n t e r n a t i o n a l d i m e n s i o n s . S e v e r a l c o u n t r y p r o f i l e s a r e i n c l u d e d f r o m b o t h t h e deve l o p e d and l e s s - d e v e l o p e d n a t i o n s t o i l l u s t r a t e t h e s i m i l a r i t i e s and d i f f e r e n c e s among i n t h e i r c h a l l e n g e s and o p p o r t u n i t i e s t o d e a l e f f e c t i v e l y w i t h g l o b a l c l i m a t e change. I t i s argued t h a t p l a n n e r s s h o u l d a c t as " e n a b l e r s " , and t h a t p l a n n i n g a s a f u n c t i o n o f s o c i e t y has a s p e c i f i c r e s p o n s i b i l i t y t o e d u c a t e and p r e p a r e "the p u b l i c " f o r g l o b a l c l i m a t e changes and sea l e v e l r i s e . The r o l e o f p l a n n i n g i s d i s c u s s e d i n t h e c o n t e x t o f u n c e r t a i n t y i n r i s k assessment, gaps i n knowledge, c o n s t r a i n t s t o p l a n n i n g , d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g s t r a t e g i e s , and c o a s t a l zone management i n g e n e r a l . An o v e r v i e w o f g l o b a l , n a t i o n a l , and l o c a l t r e n d s and p r e l i m i n a r y a c t i o n s t a k e n t o d a t e a r e p r e s e n t e d . I t i s argued t h a t t r a n s i t i o n a l measures and b e t t e r d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g s t r a t e g i e s a r e r e q u i r e d i n p l a n n i n g , government p o l i c y development, f u t u r e r e s e a r c h , and e d u c a t i o n i n o r d e r t h a t a l l s o c i e t i e s may move, more e q u i t a b l y , t o w a r d c r e a t i n g a s u s t a i n a b l e f u t u r e . TABLE OF CONTENTS A b s t r a c t i i T a b l e o f C o n t e n t s i i i L i s t o f T a b l e s and F i g u r e s v CHAPTER ONE - G l o b a l C l i m a t e Change and S u s t a i n a b l e Development i ) I n t r o d u c t i o n 1 i i ) The Problem: a) C l i m a t e Change 3 b) G l o b a l Warming & Sea L e v e l R i s e 6 i i i ) Why i s i t i m p o r t a n t ? 11 i v ) What a r e t h e c r i t i c a l i s s u e s ? a) U n c e r t a i n t y 15 b) S u s t a i n a b l e Development 17 v) P r e s e n t a t i o n o f M a t e r i a l 2 0 CHAPTER TWO - Sea L e v e l R i s e i n C o a s t a l & I s l a n d Communities i ) I n t r o d u c t i o n a) C u r r e n t C o n d i t i o n s 24 b) P r o j e c t e d F u t u r e C o n d i t i o n s 27 i i ) C i t y and C o u n t r y P r o f i l e s a) The Developed C o u n t r i e s 30 The U n i t e d S t a t e s 31 C a l i f o r n i a 32 Canada 35 A u s t r a l i a 37 b) The S t i l l D e v e l o p i n g C o u n t r i e s S o u t h e a s t A s i a , B a n g l a d e s h 40 Bangkok, T h a i l a n d 44 M a n i l l a , & Negros, The P h i l i p p i n e s . 46 The M e d i t e r r a n e a n R e g i o n 47 The N i l e , Egypt 48 c) I s l a n d Communities The South P a c i f i c I s l a n d s 51 The M a l d i v e s , E a s t I n d i a n Ocean • • 54 The H a w a i i a n I s l a n d s 55 i i i ) R e p e r c u s s i o n s a) Urban I n f r a s t r u c t u r e 60 b) Economic Systems 62 c) Summary o f Known Impacts o f Sea L e v e l R i s e Due t o C l i m a t e Change 65 CHAPTER THREE - P l a n n i n g i n A c t i o n i ) What i s P l a n n i n g ? What do P l a n n e r s do? 67 i i ) U n c e r t a i n t y i n P l a n n i n g : Gaps i n Knowledge and O t h e r C o n s t r a i n t s t o P l a n n i n g 72 i i i ) D e c i s i o n - m a k i n g i n P l a n n i n g : The R o l e o f C o a s t a l Zone Management i n P l a n n i n g f o r C l i m a t e Change 77 a) P o l i c y D e f i c i e n c i e s 80 b) I n t e r v e n t i o n F a i l u r e 83 c) Market F a i l u r e 86 CHAPTER FOUR - I n t e g r a t i n g C l i m a t e Change i n P l a n n i n g i ) C u r r e n t P l a n n i n g I n i t i a t i v e s and P r o p o s a l s t o A d d r e s s C l i m a t e Change, and R i s i n g Sea L e v e l s a) The I n t e r n a t i o n a l Community 89 b) N a t i o n a l P l a n n i n g S t r a t e g i e s 95 c) L o c a l P l a n n i n g Responses 98 i i ) P l a n n i n g as i f today m a t t e r e d 103 i i i ) Recommendations f o r A c t i o n 106 a) Implementing T r a n s i t i o n a l A c t i o n s on N a t i o n a l and L o c a l L e v e l s 107 b) Implementing T r a n s i t i o n a l A c t i o n s i n C o a s t a l Zone Management 109 i v ) F u t u r e Thoughts 113 B i b l i o g r a p h y LIST OF TABLES T a b l e 1 Ten c o u n t r i e s most v u l n e r a b l e t o sea l e v e l r i s e . . 26 T a b l e 2 C o n v e n t i o n on C l i m a t e Change: COj E m i s s i o n s R e d u c t i o n Schedule 101 LIST OF FIGURES F i g u r e 1 Model p r o j e c t i o n s o f g l o b a l warming 5 F i g u r e 2 G l o b a l Sea L e v e l Change, G l o b a l Temperature Change . 9 F i g u r e 3 A r e a s v u l n e r a b l e t o r i s i n g sea l e v e l 29 F i g u r e 4 B a n g l a d e s h under t h r e a t 43 F i g u r e 5 I s l a n d s o f t h e T r o p i c a l South P a c i f i c 52 F i g u r e 6 Measurements o f c a r b o n d i o x i d e c o n c e n t r a t i o n s i n t h e a i r from Mauna Loa, H a w a i i 56 F i g u r e 7 S a l t w a t e r i n t r u s i o n i n t o a f r e s h w a t e r l e n s . . . . 61 CHAPTER ONE GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE and SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT i) Introduction To d a t e , volumes have been w r i t t e n on g l o b a l c l i m a t e change. Problems s u c h as t h e greenhouse e f f e c t , ozone d e p l e t i o n , and r i s i n g s e a l e v e l s have been s t u d i e d and debated w i t h r e g a r d t o t h e i r i m p a c t on a l l a s p e c t s o f human l i f e , as s e p a r a t e f rom a s s o c i a t e d e c o l o g i c a l conseguences i n t h e n a t u r a l e n v i r o n m e n t . I n r e a l i t y c u r r e n t a t m o s p h e r i c change s i g n a l s a " d i s e q u i l i b r i u m i n human e c o l o g y " (Rees, 1990), which r e s u l t s from e x i s t i n g economic models o f development w h i c h a r e based on growth, and w h i c h c o n s i d e r t h e n a t u r a l e n v ironment as a s t a t i c e n t i t y p r o v i d i n g u n l i m i t e d r e s o u r c e s and a " s i n k " i n which t o dump human-produced wastes.' G l o b a l c l i m a t e change forms an i n t e g r a l p a r t o f any c u r r e n t e n v i r o n m e n t a l d i s c u s s i o n s as e v i d e n c e d by t h e numerous p u b l i c a t i o n s , s p e c i a l committees, c o n f e r e n c e s , and i n s t i t u t i o n s s e t up t o s p e c i f i c a l l y t o address t h i s phenomenon. A t t h e h e a r t o f any d i s c u s s i o n o f c l i m a t e change i m p a c t s , e s p e c i a l l y r i s i n g s e a l e v e l s , i s t h e more c h a l l e n g i n g i s s u e o f s u s t a i n a b l e development. T o g e t h e r , t h e i s s u e s o f g l o b a l c l i m a t e change and s u s t a i n a b l e development r e p r e s e n t t h e s i n g l e b i g g e s t c h a l l e n g e ( s h o r t o f n u c l e a r w a r ) , and window o f o p p o r t u n i t y — e c o n o m i c a l l y and p o l i t i c a l l y , o f t h e t w e n t y - f i r s t c e n t u r y . Thus, t h e r e i s much ' W i l l i a m E. Rees, (1990). " A t m o s p h e r i c Change: Human E c o l o g y i n D i s e q u i l i b r i u m " , i n The I n t e r n a t i o n a l J o u r n a l o f E n v i r o n m e n t a l S t u d i e s . c o n t e n t i o u s d ebate o v e r t h e c a u s e s , i m p a c t s , and a p p r o p r i a t e n e s s of a c t i o n t o be adopted. The i s s u e s r e l a t e d t o r i s i n g sea l e v e l s , i n d e e d o f g l o b a l c l i m a t e change i n g e n e r a l , a r e p l a g u e d by a t t a c k s t h a t many o f t h e c o n c e r n s , and t h e g e n e r a l l e v e l o f a n x i e t y s u r r o u n d i n g them, a r e t o o b r o a d , t o o vague a t t i m e s , and t o o c r i s i s o r i e n t e d . However, c o n t r a r y t o t h e c l a i m s o f t h e s e c r i t i c i s m s , t h e i m p a c t s o f r i s i n g a v erage s e a l e v e l s upon c o a s t a l and i s l a n d communities t h r o u g h o u t t h e w o r l d a r e v e r y s p e c i f i c i n n a t u r e . They a r e more t h a n j u s t a b s t r a c t i m p a c t s . Those a f f e c t e d have more t h a n vague c o n c e r n s , and b o t h t h e l a n d and i t s p e o p l e a f f e c t e d a r e a l r e a d y and w i l l c o n t i n u e t o be e x p e r i e n c i n g s e r i o u s t o c r i s i s - l e v e l r e p e r c u s s i o n s on t h e i r economic, p o l i t i c a l , and c u l t u r a l l i f e . S i n c e a t m o s p h e r i c change i s p r e d o m i n a t e l y a pr o b l e m i n human e c o l o g y (Rees, 1990), i t i s p r e s e n t e d and argued i n t h i s paper t h a t p l a n n e r s , and t h e r o l e o f p l a n n i n g , have a v e r y s p e c i f i c r e s p o n s i b i l i t y t o p r e p a r e t h e i r " p u b l i c s " f o r t h e i n e v i t a b l e i m p a c t s o f c l i m a t e change wrought by t h e advancements o f i n d u s t r i a l development. As i n d i v i d u a l s , p l a n n e r s p o s s e s s t h e s k i l l s and o p p o r t u n i t i e s t o ed u c a t e b o t h t h e m s e l v e s and o t h e r s , and t h e r e f o r e i n f l u e n c e t h e p l a n n i n g p r o c e s s . *In p l a n n i n g as a p r o c e s s o f [ o r p r e l u d e t o ] a c t i o n , o p p o r t u n i t i e s e x i s t f o r p l a n n e r s t o be p r o a c t i v e i n p r a c t i c e , as w e l l as a d v o c a t e s and " b i g p i c t u r e " t h i n k e r s u t i l i z i n g e x i s t i n g knowledge and windows o f o p p o r t u n i t y t o e f f e c t a b e t t e r , more s e c u r e f u t u r e f o r a l l c o n c e r n e d . T h i s t h e s i s , t h e r e f o r e , hopes t o p r o v i d e i l l u m i n a t i o n o f how economic, i n f o r m a t i o n , and c u l t u r a l o r d e r s c r e a t e " c o n d i t i o n s o f c h o i c e " t h a t d e t e r m i n e s what o p t i o n s p e o p l e see, and what c h o i c e s t h e y b e l i e v e t h e y a r e a b l e t o make ( B o u l d i n g , 1983) . P l a n n i n g , as a f u n c t i o n o f s o c i e t y [human c i v i l i z a t i o n ] , i s t h e r e f o r e d i s c u s s e d as a v e h i c l e by whi c h c l i m a t e change can and s h o u l d be a n t i c i p a t e d , a d d r e s s e d , and u t i l i z e d i n a p o s i t i v e way t o c r e a t e a t r u l y s u s t a i n a b l e f u t u r e f o r a l l p e o p l e s everywhere. I t i s argued t h a t b e t t e r d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g s t r a t e g i e s a r e r e q u i r e d t o e l i m i n a t e h a r m f u l economic and p r i v a t e a c t i v i t i e s , and t h a t t r a n s i t i o n a l measures a r e r e q u i r e d on l o c a l p l a n n i n g and economic l e v e l s t o h e l p communities cope w i t h changes i n i n d u s t r y and l i f e s t y l e s . By e n a c t i n g t r a n s i t i o n a l measures now e v e n t u a l l y we w i l l a l l be b e t t e r o f f i n t h e l o n g r u n . i i ) The Problem a) Climate Change A c c o r d i n g t o Rees (1990) i n "At m o s p h e r i c Change: Human Ec o l o g y i n D i s e q u i l i b r i u m " , t h e r e a r e two c o n t r a s t i n g p e r s p e c t i v e s by which t o examine t h e s u b j e c t o f a t m o s p h e r i c change i n g e n e r a l ; one, an e c o l o g i c a l p e r s p e c t i v e which views "humankind as e x i s t i n g i n a s t a t e o f o b l i g a t e dependency on t h e n a t u r a l w o r l d " , and two, an a n t h r o p o g e n i c p e r s p e c t i v e which v i e w s n a t u r e o r t h e p h y s i c a l environment as m e r e l y a " s t a t i c backdrop t o human a f f a i r s " . ^ The c h o i c e , and d e f e n c e , o f one p e r s p e c t i v e o v e r a n o t h e r d e t e r m i n e s a l l c u r r e n t and f u t u r e c o n t e x t s f o r e d u c a t i o n , r e s e a r c h , p o l i c y , p l a n n i n g , and a c t i o n ( o r n o n - a c t i o n ) . I n s h o r t , i t d e t e r m i n e s whether o r n o t a t m o s p h e r i c change i s p e r c e i v e d as a problem o r c r i s i s , o r i f i t even e x i s t s , and whether o r not s o m e t h i n g , f a i r l y r a d i c a l and v e r y soon, s h o u l d be done about i t , o r i f and when a n y t h i n g c a n be done about i t a t a l l . Over t h e p a s t c e n t u r i e s f o r m e r t r a d i t i o n a l c u l t u r e s have c o n t i n u o u s l y t r a n s f o r m e d t h e m s e l v e s , t h e i r l i v i n g e n v i r o n m e n t s , economies, and p o l i t i c a l systems from p r e d o m i n a t e l y r u r a l - a g r a r i a n and s m a l l merchant economies t o t o d a y ' s p r e d o m i n a t e l y w e s t e r n c a p i t a l i s t mode o f i n d u s t r i a l p r o d u c t i o n based on growth. Much of t h i s growth has o c c u r r e d w i t h i n c o a s t a l a r e a s , w h e r e i n , i t i s c u r r e n t l y e s t i m a t e d a f u l l one t h i r d o f t h e w o r l d ' s p o p u l a t i o n c u r r e n t l y l i v e s w i t h i n 60 k i l o m e t r e s o f c o a s t s . ^ I n t h i s c e n t u r y , a c c e l e r a t i n g i n c r e a s e s i n greenhouse gases such as c a r b o n d i o x i d e (COj) , c h l o r o f l u o r o c a r b o n s (CFCs), methane (CH4) and n i t r o u s o x i d e (NjO) , have accumulated i n t h e upper atmosphere r e s u l t i n g i n g r a d u a l , b u t s t e a d i l y r i s i n g g l o b a l mean 2 W i l l i a m E. Rees, (1990); I b i d . ^ A l Gore, 1992. E a r t h i n t h e B a l a n c e . E c o l o g y and t h e Human S p i r i t ; (Houghton M i f f l i n Company; New York, New Y o r k ) ; page 104. a n n u a l t e m p e r a t u r e s . G l o b a l a t m o s p h e r i c t e m p e r a t u r e has i n c r e a s e d i n t h e l a s t 100 y e a r s by almo s t 1 degree C e n t i g r a d e , and human a c t i v i t i e s t h r e a t e n t o f u r t h e r a l t e r g l o b a l a verage t e m p e r a t u r e s by up t o 3-4 t i m e s t h a t amount.'' Human a c t i v i t i e s have d r i v e n up t h e c o n c e n t r a t i o n o f carbon d i o x i d e (COj) l e v e l s from 3 00 ppm d u r i n g t h e l a s t i c e age (17,000 y e a r s ago) t o 335 ppm, w i t h an a n t i c i p a t e d r i s e t o 600 ppm w i t h i n t h e n e x t f o r t y y e a r s a l o n e . ^ Figure 1 Model projections of global warming 4.00 2050 Source: Department of the Environment Source: Department o f t h e Environment ( U n i t e d S t a t e s ) i n M a r t i n Ince (1990). The R i s i n g Seas. ( E a r t h s c a n P u b l i c a t i o n s L t d . ; London); page 27. A l Gore, (1992), I b i d ; pages 73 and 96. ^ A l Gore, (1992), I b i d . ; page 95; 130,000 y e a r s ago, a t t h e end o f t h e n e x t t o l a s t i c e age, C O 2 l e v e l s were l e s s t h a n 200 ppm. T h i s warming t r e n d a f f e c t s a i r c u r r e n t p a t t e r n s , p r e c i p i t a t i o n l e v e l s , movements o f ocean c u r r e n t s , f r e q u e n c y and i n t e n s i t y o f st o r m s , and l a n d - b a s e d g l a c i a l m e l t i n g . T h i s a r t i f i c i a l warming* o f t h e upper atmosphere i s a l s o l e a d i n g t o ozone d e p l e t i o n , reduced o x i d a t i o n , and r i s i n g s e a l e v e l s among o t h e r e c o l o g i c a l problems. b) Global Warming and Sea Level Rise The c e n o z o i c e r a i n whi c h we l i v e began a p p r o x i m a t e l y 65 m i l l i o n y e a r s ago w i t h t h e d i s a p p e a r a n c e o f t h e d i n o s a u r s . A t t h a t t i m e , t h e g l o b a l mean an n u a l t e m p e r a t u r e s were o n l y 1-2 degrees C e l s i u s warmer t h a n t h o s e o f t o d a y a t 15 degrees C e n t i g r a d e . ' A n t h r o p o l o g i c a l e v i d e n c e o f human o c c u p a t i o n a l o n g t h e e x i s t i n g c o a s t a l r e g i o n s d a t e back t o a p p r o x i m a t e l y 1.2 m i l l i o n y e a r s ago.* F o r t h e p a s t 6,000 y e a r s humankind has c o n t i n u o u s l y a d j u s t e d i t s a c t i v i t i e s and s e t t l e m e n t s by t h e advances and r e c e s s i o n s o f t h e s h o r e l i n e s , w i t h p o r t c o n s t r u c t i o n and c o a s t a l s e t t l e m e n t s d a t i n g back t o t h e 4 t h c e n t u r y . However, t h e most i n t e n s e u t i l i z a t i o n o f t h e c o a s t a l r e g i o n s and r e s o u r c e s has o c c u r r e d w i t h i n t h e l a s t few c e n t u r i e s . Because t h e s e c o a s t a l r e g i o n s s e r v e d i v e r s e human needs * " A r t i f i c i a l " warming o f t h e e a r t h ' s atmosphere i s d e f i n e d i n t h i s p a per as human-caused g l o b a l warming, as opposed t o t h e " n a t u r a l " a c c u m u l a t i o n o f greenhouse gases i n t h e atmosphere as a b y p r o d u c t o f p h y s i c a l e v o l u t i o n . J . L o v e l o c k (1988) . "Man and G a i a " i n The E a r t h R e p o r t , eds. E. G o l d s m i t h and N. H i l l y a r d ; M i t c h e l l B e a z l e y ; ( P r i c e S t e r n S l o a n ; London; Los Ange l e s . ) i n Gore (1992), Op. C i t . ; page 95. * S. S c h n e i d e r (1983), " C O 2 , C l i m a t e and S o c i e t y " i n R o b e r t S. Chen, e t a l . E d i t o r s S o c i a l S c i e n c e R e s e a r c h and C l i m a t e Change. (D- R e i d e l P u b l i s h i n g Company; D o r d r e c h t , B o s t o n ) ; page 9. f o r f o o d , energy, t r a n s p o r t , r e c r e a t i o n , u r b a n development, i n d u s t r y , a g r i c u l t u r e , f o r e s t r y , f i s h e r i e s , and t r a d e , government p o l i c i e s have t r a d i t i o n a l l y encouraged i n c r e a s i n g p o p u l a t i o n and i n d u s t r i a l d e n s i t i e s w i t h i n t h e s e c o a s t a l z o n e s . A l t h o u g h sea l e v e l s have r i s e n and f a l l e n t h r o u g h o u t t h e v a r i o u s g e o l o g i c a l p e r i o d s , "never has t h e change been anywhere nea r as r a p i d as t h a t now e x p e c t e d as a consequence o f g l o b a l warming" (Gore, 1992) . A t t h e end o f t h e l a s t i c e age ( a p p r o x i m a t e l y 20,000 y e a r s a g o ) , g l o b a l a v e r a g e s e a l e v e l s were about 300 f e e t l ower t h a n t h e y a r e t o d a y . L a r g e a r e a s o f t h e c o n t i n e n t a l s h e l f were exposed as d r y l a n d and s h a l l o w ocean s t r a i t s , w i t h t h e e x i s t i n g B e r i n g S t r a i t and t h e G u l f o f C a r p e n t a r i a a c t i n g as l a n d b r i d g e s . These b r i d g e s p r o v i d e d m i g r a t o r y r o u t e s f o r t h e p r e s e n t - d a y a b o r i g i n e s i n t o A u s t r a l i a , and t h e A s i a t i c nomads i n t o N o r t h and South A m e r i c a . As t h e g l a c i e r s l a t e r r e t r e a t e d , sea l e v e l s r o s e once a g a i n (about 10,000 y e a r s ago) t r a p p i n g t h e new m i g r a n t s on t h e i r p r e s e n t - d a y c o n t i n e n t s . A t t h e same t i m e , as tempe r a t u r e s c l i m b e d , t h e g l o b a l c l i m a t e system s e t t l e d i n t o a p a t t e r n t h a t i t has r o u g h l y m a i n t a i n e d e v e r s i n c e , up u n t i l t h i s c e n t u r y . ' A c c o r d i n g t o Dr. I r v i n g M i n t z e r , D i r e c t o r o f P o l i c y R e s e a r c h a t t h e C e n t e r f o r G l o b a l Change, U n i v e r s i t y o f M a r y l a n d , a s m a l l i n c r e a s e i n te m p e r a t u r e o f 2 t o 5 degrees F a h r e n h e i t can be Gore (1992), Op. C i t . ; page 61. e x p e c t e d e a r l y i n t h e n e x t c e n t u r y . He s t a t e s , t h a t "even a warming o f j u s t two degrees would t a k e t h e p l a n e t o u t s i d e t h e t e m p e r a t u r e range w h i c h has been e x p e r i e n c e d i n t h e l a s t 10,000 years".'" G l o b a l warming r a i s e s sea l e v e l s i n s e v e r a l ways: t h r o u g h h i g h e r average t e m p e r a t u r e s , t h r o u g h t h e d i s c h a r g e o f i c e i n t o t h e ocean from l a n d - b a s e d g l a c i a l m e l t i n g i n A n t a r c t i c a and G r e e n l a n d i n p a r t i c u l a r , and t h r o u g h t h e t h e r m a l e x p a n s i o n o f t h e volume o f t h e sea as i t s w a t e r s g r a d u a l l y warm." I n terms o f sea l e v e l r i s e , on a g e n t l e s l o p e (20:1, h o r i z o n t a l t o v e r t i c a l ) , i g n o r i n g s u b s i d e n c e and u p l i f t i n g , a 1-meter r i s e w ould r a i s e a t i d e l a n d w a r d by 20 meters (65.6 f e e t ) . ' ^ Warmer t e m p e r a t u r e s accompanied by r i s e s i n sea l e v e l a f f e c t t i d a l f l o o d i n g , o c e a n i c c u r r e n t s and u p w e l l i n g p a t t e r n s , f r e q u e n c y and i n t e n s i t y o f s t o r m s , changes i n b i o l o g i c a l p r o c e s s e s ( e s p e c i a l l y f o r i n u n d a t e d c o r a l r e e f s ) , landmass r u n o f f and e r o s i o n s p a t t e r n s ( a l r e a d y n e g a t i v e l y a f f e c t e d by l a r g e dams such as t h e Aswan i n E g y p t ) , and i n c r e a s e s i n s a l t w a t e r i n t r u s i o n i n t o e s t u a r i e s , r i v e r s , groundwater, and a g r i c u l t u r a l s o i l s . Moreover, Don H i n r i c h s e n (1990), Our Common Seas. C o a s t s i n C r i s i s . ( E a r t h s c a n P u b l i c a t i o n s L t d . ; London i n a s s o c i a t i o n w i t h U n i t e d N a t i o n s Environment Programme; N a i r o b i ) ; page 20. " I t i s t h e " l a n d - b a s e d " g l a c i a l m e l t i n g , and n o t t h e m e l t i n g o f i c e b e r g s i n t h e ocean, which causes sea l e v e l s t o r i s e . The l a r g e m a j o r i t y o f t h e i c e on e a r t h i s i n t h e form o f l a n d - b a s e d g l a c i e r s . Lynne T. E d g e r t o n (1991), The R i s i n g T i d e . G l o b a l Warming and World Sea L e v e l s . ( N a t u r a l Resources Defense C o u n c i l / I s l a n d P r e s s ; Washington, D.C. and C o v e l o , C a l i f o r n i a ) ; page 24. i n c r e a s e d s t o r m i n t e n s i t i e s and f r e q u e n c i e s would cause s e r i o u s p r o p e r t y damage t o c o a s t a l s t r u c t u r e s , human i n j u r y and d e a t h . Figure 2 Global Sea Level Change (cm) Global Temperature Change 3 -2 -Upper Scenario Upper <rate 0.8*C/deoade) Scenario Middle Scenario (rate0.3-C/ decade) Low Scenario 1860 1900 I r 1940 1 — I — r 1930 .150 _140 - 1 2 0 - 1 0 0 T — I — I — I — I — I — I — r 2020 2060 2100 Global temperature and sea level change, historic and projected. To 1980, based on measurements. Upper scenario: with continued growth in energy use as at present. Middle scenario: stabilized emissions to the atmosphere. Lower scenario: with drastically reduced emission of greenhouse gases. (From f. Jaeger, Developing Policies for Responding to Climatic Change, World Meteorological Organization, April 1988.) S o u r c e : I n Constance M u n g a l l and Digby J . McLaren, E d i t o r s (1990). P l a n e t Under S t r e s s . F o r t h e R o y a l S o c i e t y o f Canada (Oxford U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s ; New York, T o r o n t o ) ; page 65. One o f t h e most w i d e l y r e c o g n i z e d i m p a c t s o f g l o b a l warming t o d a y i s t h e r i s e o f sea l e v e l s and t h e subsequent l o s s o f low-l y i n g c o a s t a l a r e a s around t h e g l o b e . A p p r o x i m a t e l y 125,000 y e a r s ago d u r i n g an i n t e r g l a c i a l warming p e r i o d , s ea l e v e l s r o s e d r a s t i c a l l y by about t w e n t y - t h r e e f e e t . U n t i l 1991, s c i e n t i s t s i n g e n e r a l t e n d e d t o d i s c o u n t t h e p o s s i b i l i t y o f t h a t c a t a s t r o p h e ' s r e o c c u r r e n c e f o r a t l e a s t a n o t h e r 200-300 y e a r s . However, i n 1991 Dr. R o b e r t B i n d s c h a d l e r o f NASA, one o f t h e l e a d i n g e x p e r t s on West A n t a r c t i c a , t e s t i f i e d b e f o r e a U.S. subcommittee t h a t "new s a m p l i n g s from t h e bottom o f t h e i c e s h e e t now show dynamic and dangerous changes". As a r e s u l t o f t h e s e f i n d i n g s . Dr. B i n d s c h a d l e r has now s h o r t e n h i s e a r l i e r t i m e frame f o r t h e a n t i c i p a t e d breakup o f t h e West A n t a r c t i c a i c e s h e e t as g l o b a l t e m p e r a t u r e s c o n t i n u e t o c l i m b . S i m i l a r l y , e a r l y i n 1992 two l e a d i n g e x p e r t s on g l a c i e r s , L o n n i e and E l l e n Thompson o f t h e B r y d P o l a r R e s e a r c h C e n t e r a t Ohio S t a t e U n i v e r s i t y , r e p o r t e d t h a t " a l l mid-and l o w - l a t i t u d e mountain g l a c i e r s a r e now m e l t i n g and r e t r e a t i n g — some o f them q u i t e r a p i d l y — and t h e i c e r e c o r d c o n t a i n e d i n t h e s e g l a c i e r s shows t h a t t h e l a s t f i f t y y e a r s have been much warmer t h a n any o t h e r f i f t y y e a r p e r i o d i n 12,000 y e a r s " . " As a r e s u l t , s e a l e v e l s a r e s t e a d i l y r i s i n g , a l m o s t one i n c h p e r decade t o d a t e , r e s u l t i n g i n s a l t w a t e r i n t r u s i o n i n t o f r e s h water a q u i f e r s i n c o a s t a l a r e a s , t h e l o s s o f c o a s t a l w e t l a n d a r e a s , t h e l o s s o f h a b i t a b l e r e s i d e n t i a l and a g r i c u l t u r a l l a n d s , and t h e l o s s o f s o l i d ground on w h i c h t o c a r r y on b u s i n e s s as u s u a l . 13 A l Gore (1992), Op. C i t . ; page 105. i i i ) Why i s i t important? The c r i t i c a l p o i n t t o u n d e r s t a n d h e r e i t i s t h a t o n l y s m a l l , o v e r a l l f l u c t u a t i o n s i n mean annual t e m p e r a t u r e s b u i l t up o v e r time p o s s e s s t h e p o t e n t i a l t o c r e a t e c o m p l e t e l y new a t m o s p h e r i c e n v i r o n m e n t s , t h u s d r a m a t i c a l l y a l t e r i n g w hatever t h e c u r r e n t " s t a t u s quo" o r e q u i l i b r i u m s t a t e o f e c o l o g i c a l e x i s t e n c e . I n " A t m o s p h e r i c Change: Human E c o l o g y i n D i s e q u i l i b r i u m " , Rees e x p l a i n s t h a t . L i v i n g t h i n g s e v o l v e i n dynamic r e l a t i o n s h i p w i t h each o t h e r and t h e i r p h y s i c a l e n v i r o n m e n t s . Over g e o l o g i c a l t i m e , t h i s u n c o n s c i o u s m u t u a l i s m has p r o d u c e d an e c o s p h e r e o f i n t r i c a t e s t r u c t u r e and r e l a t i o n s h i p . The s t r u c t u r a l components o f t h e ecosphere i n c l u d e e v e r y t h i n g from s i m p l e i n o r g a n i c c h e m i c a l s t o e n t i r e e cosystems. These components do not e x i s t i n s t a t i c i s o l a t i o n b u t a r e d y n a m i c a l l y r e l a t e d t h r o u g h t h e c o n t i n u o u s r e c y c l i n g o f m a t t e r and a s t e a d y t h r o u g h p u t o f energy. The e n t i r e s y s t e m i s d r i v e n by an e x t e r n a l s o u r c e o f energy, t h e sun. From t h i s p e r s p e c t i v e , i t i s c r i t i c a l to recognize t h a t t h e e c o s p h e r e s h a r e s a s i n g u l a r l y i m p o r t a n t p r o p e r t y w i t h i n d i v i d u a l l i v i n g organisms: a t t h e whole s y s t e m l e v e l , the ecosphere i s continually s e l f - o r g a n i z i n g and s e l f -producing. The major components o f t h e e c o s p h e r e a r e i n t e r d e p e n d e n t l y l i n k e d i n a network o f t r a n s f o r m a t i o n s and p r o c e s s e s whose i n t e g r i t y i s e s s e n t i a l f o r t h e p r o d u c t i o n and maintenance o f t h e components t h e m s e l v e s . This type of self-perpetuating r e l a t i o n s h i p i s defined as autopoietic organization.*'* A most i m p o r t a n t i m p l i c a t i o n o f a u t o p o i e t i c o r g a n i z a t i o n s h o u l d a l r e a d y be c l e a r : much of what we have been pleased to c a l l "the environment" i s a c t u a l l y the product of l i f e i t s e l f . Thus, the h i s t o r i c organization of the ecosphere i s neither inconsequential nor i n d i f f e r e n t to change. The removal of key components or the d i s r u p t i o n of p a r t i c u l a r relationships could change the fundamental nature of the system. We have l o n g known t h a t a g i v e n s p e c i e s r e q u i r e s a p a r t i c u l a r s e t o f e n v i r o n m e n t a l O r i g i n a l l y from, H. Maturana and F. V a r e l a , (1988) The T r e e o f Knowledge (New S c i e n c e L i b r a r y ; B o s t o n ) ; page 42. c o n d i t i o n s f o r s u r v i v a l , but [we] are unaccustomed to thinking that those environmental conditions are themselves dependent on the d i s t r i b u t i o n , abundance, and i n t e r a c t i o n of species. [Emphasis added] I n c o n t r a s t t o t h e s e " n a t u r a l " l a w s, Rees (1991), among o t h e r s , r e p o r t s t h a t i n d u s t r i a l s o c i e t y has always r e g a r d e d " t h e e n v i r o n m e n t " as a s t o r e h o u s e o f r e s o u r c e s and a s i n k f o r wastes".'^ I n o t h e r words, " n a t u r e [as] a s t a t i c backdrop t o human a f f a i r s . " Rees s t a t e s t h a t , "From t h i s p e r s p e c t i v e , anthropogenic changes i n atmospheric gases are perceived as i s o l a t e d technical problems or as mere " e x t e r n a l i t i e s " r e s u l t i n g from market imperfections".'* However, as a r e s u l t o f i ) human a c t i v i t i e s , p a s t and p r e s e n t , and i i ) t h e normal c o u r s e o f ongoing e v o l u t i o n a r y p r o c e s s e s , a l b e i t a t a more r a p i d pace t h a n i n t h e p a s t and c e r t a i n l y a more d e l e t e r i o u s one a t t h a t , t h e r e now emerges t h e spectre of global climate change as the new e c o l o g i c a l r e a l i t y l e a d i n g i n t o t h e t w e n t y - f i r s t c e n t u r y . I n h e r e n t i n t h i s new r e a l i t y a r e c o n t i n u i n g t r e n d s o f g l o b a l warming, ozone d e p l e t i o n , and sea l e v e l r i s e among o t h e r , as e q u a l l y as s e r i o u s , consequences. A c c o r d i n g t o Canada's S t a n d i n g Committee on t h e Environment's 1988 R e p o r t , "The Changing Atmosphere: I m p l i c a t i o n s f o r G l o b a l S e c u r i t y " , Humanity i s c o n d u c t i n g an u n i n t e n d e d , u n c o n t r o l l e d , g l o b a l l y p e r v a s i v e e x p e r i m e n t whose u l t i m a t e consequences W i l l i a m E. Rees (1990), Op. C i t . " Rees (1990), I b i d . c o u l d be second o n l y t o n u c l e a r war." S i m i l a r l y , now V i c e - P r e s i d e n t o f t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s , A l Gore w r i t e s i n h i s book. E a r t h i n t h e B a l a n c e , t h e a r t i f i c i a l g l o b a l warming we a r e c a u s i n g t h r e a t e n s f a r more th a n a few degrees added t o average t e m p e r a t u r e s ; i t threatens to destroy the climate equilibrium we have known for the entire h i s t o r y of hiunan c i v i l i z a t i o n . As t h e c l i m a t e p a t t e r n b e g i n s t o change, so t o o do t h e movements of t h e wind and r a i n , t h e f l o o d s and d r o u g h t s , t h e g r a s s l a n d s and d e s e r t s , t h e i n s e c t s and weeds, t h e f e a s t s and famines, t h e seasons o f peace and war.'» Gore r e p o r t s S i r C r i s p i n T i c k e l l , a l e a d i n g B r i t i s h d i p l o m a t and e n v i r o n m e n t a l i s t , s t a t e d i n a'1989 speech t o t h e R o y a l S o c i e t y of London t h a t , ... a heavy c o n c e n t r a t i o n o f p e o p l e i s a t p r e s e n t i n low-l y i n g a r e a s a l o n g t h e w o r l d ' s g r e a t r i v e r systems. N e a r l y one t h i r d o f humanity l i v e s w i t h i n 60 k i l o m e t r e s o f a c o a s t l i n e . A r i s e i n mean sea l e v e l o f o n l y 25 cm. would have s u b s t a n t i a l e f f e c t s ... a problem o f an o r d e r o f magnitude which no one has e v e r had t o f a c e ... i n v i r t u a l l y a l l c o u n t r i e s t h e g r o w i n g numbers o f r e f u g e e s w ould c a s t a dark and l e n g t h e n i n g shadow.'^ Today, t h e d e v e l o p e d n a t i o n s t h r o u g h o u t t h e w o r l d p o s s e s s t h e a b i l i t y and r e s o u r c e s t o i n s u l a t e most p e o p l e from t h e i m p a c t s of r i s i n g s e a l e v e l s t o some degree. However i n t h e p a s t , p o p u l a t i o n s a t r i s k m e r e l y r e l o c a t e d t o o t h e r , more h a b i t a b l e grounds. I n t h e s t i l l d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s t h e r e a r e few, i f any, r e s o u r c e s . " Canada, Conference Statement i n The Changing Atmosphere: I m p l i c a t i o n s f o r G l o b a l S e c u r i t y ; T o r o n t o , Canada; 27-30 June, 1988. I n S t a n d i n g Committee on t h e Environment's R e p o r t o f same t i t l e , p u b l i s h e d by Environment Canada, Ottawa (June, 1988); page 3. Gore (1992), Op. C i t . ; page 98. Gore (1992), I b i d . ; page 74. c a p a b i l i t i e s , o r o t h e r , more h a b i t a b l e grounds. W h i l e d i f f e r e n t r e g i o n s a r o u n d t h e w o r l d w i l l be a f f e c t e d d i f f e r e n t l y by c l i m a t e change i m p a c t s , so t o o w i l l t h e w o r l d ' s v a r i o u s p o p u l a t i o n s , depending l a r g e l y upon whether one i s r i c h o r p o o r . The poor n a t i o n s , and i s l a n d communities, w i l l be h a r d e s t h i t , w i t h t h e i r s u b s t a n t i a l p o p u l a t i o n s , meagre r e s o u r c e s , and w i t h few o r no r e l o c a t i o n p o s s i b i l i t i e s . So w h i l e s o c i a l and p h y s i c a l s c i e n t i s t s , p o l i t i c a l s c i e n t i s t s and e c o n o m i s t s , and even p l a n n e r s s t r u g g l e t o g r a p p l e w i t h t h e e x i s t i n g l a y e r s o f c u l t u r a l t r a n s i t i o n s w h i c h have a l r e a d y o c c u r r e d , a n o t h e r l a y e r o f t r a n s f o r m a t i o n i s a l r e a d y e n g u l f i n g them — t h e r o l e o f c l i m a t e change i n t h e coming c e n t u r y . Thus, t h i s i s h a r d l y t h e t i m e f o r " b u s i n e s s as u s u a l " . P l a n n e r s i n p a r t i c u l a r need pay s p e c i a l a t t e n t i o n t o t h e i s s u e o f g l o b a l c l i m a t e change. E v e r y l a n d use a p p r o v a l , v i a bylaw, z o n i n g , m u n i c i p a l o r r u r a l p l a n o f development i s a f f e c t e d and d i c t a t e d by t h e weather system and g e o g r a p h i c a l u n d e r p i n n i n g s o f t h e i r a r e a . T h i s i s o n l y common sense. However i t i s t a k e n f o r g r a n t e d by n e a r l y a l l p r o f e s s i o n a l s i n any g i v e n f i e l d t h a t t h e i r p h y s i c a l environment i s a " g i v e n " — a s t a t i c " f a c t " o f l i t t l e consequence i n t h e o v e r r i d i n g o b j e c t i v e o f f e e d i n g , h o u s i n g , e m p l o ying, and c a r i n g f o r p e o p l e . Over t h e p a s t few decades C o a s t a l Zone Management has e v o l v e d as a s p e c i a l i z e d f i e l d o f p l a n n i n g i n N o r t h A m e r i c a . I n t h e N e t h e r l a n d s , c o a s t a l zone management has always been an ongoing p a r t o f development. I n V e n i c e , f o o l i s h p o l i t i c i a n s and greedy d e v e l o p e r s have c o n v e n i e n t l y f o r g o t t e n t h e c a r e r e q u i r e d t o m a i n t a i n t h e i r l o v e l y , f l o a t i n g , c i t y . Throughout t h e c o a s t a l s t a t e s o f N o r t h A m e r i c a , i n t h e C a r o l i n a s , i n F l o r i d a , Texas, and C a l i f o r n i a t h e weather system has always r a v a g e d t h e c o a s t s . Emergency p l a n n i n g has a l s o e v o l v e d as a s p e c i a l i z e d f i e l d o f p l a n n i n g a l o n g s i d e c o a s t a l zone management t o s e r v i c e t h e s e " s p e c i a l needs" p l a c e s . U n f o r t u n a t e l y , by i t s v e r y n a t u r e , emergency p l a n n i n g i s a r e a c t i v e p r o f e s s i o n , based upon t h e p r e s u m p t i o n o f a c r i s i s t h a t i s s h o r t - t e r m i n n a t u r e , an o u t - o f -t h e - n o r m a l o c c u r r e n c e o f everyday l i f e and p l a n n i n g i n g e n e r a l . I t sweeps i n t o save t h e day, h o p i n g a g a i n s t hope t h a t t h e c r i s i s i s n e v e r as bad as i t c o u l d be, and t h a t maybe some r e s p o n s i b l e p a r t i e s had t h e good f o r e s i g h t t o p l a n ahead. iv) What are the c r i t i c a l issues? a) Uncertainty ... A w o r k i n g d e f i n i t i o n o f u n c e r t a i n t y f o r p l a n n e r s c o u l d be as f o l l o w s : A c o n d i t i o n t o which a p r o b a b i l i t y c o u l d n o t be a t t a c h e d . I f s u c h a p r o b a b i l i t y c o u l d be a t t a c h e d , t h e n u n c e r t a i n t y i s t r a n s f o r m e d i n t o a risk.^° W i t h r e g a r d t o c l i m a t e change and r i s i n g s e a l e v e l s t h e r e i s u n c e r t a i n t y about t h e p r o c e s s , u n c e r t a i n t y about t h e range o f ^ J a n e t L. Moore and Andrea LaCasse (1991), " U n c e r t a i n t y and C o m p l e x i t y : Problems Endemic t o Emergency P l a n n i n g i n C o a s t a l Zone Management" ( u n p u b l i s h e d paper and p r e s e n t a t i o n . S c h o o l o f Community & R e g i o n a l P l a n n i n g , U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h Columbia; V a n c o u v e r ) . a l t e r n a t i v e s , and u n c e r t a i n t y about t h e p u b l i c r e s p o n s e t o a l t e r n a t i v e s . There i s a l s o some u n c e r t a i n t y about t h e phenomenon i t s e l f . ^ ' I n t h e r e a l w o r l d t h e r e i s no such t h i n g as a b s o l u t e c e r t a i n t y . I t would be p r e s u m p t i v e o f mankind t o argue o t h e r w i s e . I t would e n t a i l t h a t humanity has n o t o n l y found a l l t h e answers t o a l l t h e w o r l d ' s problems, b u t i n c r e d u l o u s l y , has t h o r o u g h l y grasped t h e d e p t h o f t h e problems i n t h e f i r s t p l a c e . C e r t a i n t y b e l o n g s i n a l a b o r a t o r y p e t r i d i s h where a l l t h e v a r i a b l e s a r e c o n t r o l l e d , and i n f i n i t e l y c o n t r o l l a b l e . The w o r l d ' s l e a d i n g a t m o s p h e r i c s c i e n t i s t s a r e n o t i n debate o v e r t h e " f a c t s " as t h e y p e r c e i v e them r e g a r d i n g g l o b a l c l i m a t e change. They a r e i n debate o v e r t h e " a n t i c i p a t e d i m p a c t s " — t h e when, where, and by how much q u e s t i o n s . They a r e i n f u l l agreement t h a t human a c t i v i t i e s i n t h i s c e n t u r y have p r o f o u n d l y impacted upon, and a r e c h a n g i n g , t h e c h e m i c a l c o m p o s i t i o n o f t h e atmosphere. And, t o a f a i r l y good e x t e n t , t h e y have managed t o c o n v i n c e a number o f w o r l d l e a d e r s t h a t a) t h e r e i s a problem, and b) t h a t everybody s h o u l d be d o i n g something about i t . T here a r e b o t h tremendous o p p o r t u n i t i e s as w e l l as c h a l l e n g e s i n h e r e n t i n c h a n g i n g c l i m a t e p a t t e r n s . Impacts o f such i n c l u d e b i o p h y s i c a l , s o c i a l and c u l t u r a l , economic, and i n s i t u t i t i o n a l and p o l i t i c a l a s p e c t s . Any o f w h i c h can e a s i l y be p e r c e i v e d as a p l a n n e r ' s n i g h t m a r e , because f r a n k l y , p e o p l e a r e s u b s t a n t i a l l y l e s s *^ Moore and LaCasse (1991) , I b i d . r e c e p t i v e t o change t h a n t h e weather, f o r good o r bad. A c c o r d i n g t o Dr. B o u t r o s B o u t r o s - G h a l i , U n i t e d N a t i o n s S e c r e t a r y G e n e r a l , " D e s p i t e u n c e r t a i n t y as t o t h e r a t e o f g l o b a l warming, d e c i s i v e p r e c a u t i o n a r y measures a r e u r g e n t l y needed. "^ ^ And, t h e y a r e u r g e n t l y needed because o f t h e i n h e r e n t u n c e r t a i n t y o f o u r a b i l i t y t o u n d e r s t a n d and adapt t o , i n t i m e , c h a n g i n g e v o l u t i o n a r y c i r c u m s t a n c e s . L i f e i t s e l f i s v u l n e r a b l e , o n l y o f t h i s a r e we c e r t a i n . b) Sustainable Development ... As u r b a n p l a n n e r s we need t o ask o u r s e l v e s "what i f ? " and "so what?" t y p e s o f q u e s t i o n s r e g a r d i n g c u r r e n t d i s c u s s i o n s o f c l i m a t e change i m p a c t s i n g e n e r a l . What i f c l i m a t e change i s o c c u r r i n g , as i n t e r n a t i o n a l s c i e n t i f i c consensus s u g g e s t s ? So what i f i t does? What i f c a r b o n d i o x i d e (COj) d o u b l e s from c u r r e n t l e v e l s , and g l o b a l warming i n c r e a s e s ? And, so what i f i t does? F i n a l l y , what i f sea l e v e l r i s e i s i n e v i t a b l e ? And, so what i f i t i s ? These t y p e s o f q u e s t i o n s move us away from p u r e l y c r i s i s - o r i e n t e d t h i n k i n g , and p r o v i d e s us w i t h a s t a r t i n g p o i n t t o remove t h e vagueness o f t e n s u r r o u n d i n g e n v i r o n m e n t a l debates i n g e n e r a l . I t i s human n a t u r e t o p e r c e i v e "change" as a c r i s i s , as p r o b l e m a t i c . ^ ^ The s i n g u l a r l y " W o r l d M e t e o r o l o g i c a l O r g a n i z a t i o n (1992), C l i m a t e Change. Environment and Development. World L e a d e r s ' V i e w p o i n t s . ( S e c r e t a r i a t o f t h e World M e t e r o l o g i c a l O r g a n i z a t i o n ; Geneva, S w i t z e r l a n d ) ; Forward, page x i i . A u n i q u e i n t e r d i s c i p l i n a r y r e s e a r c h p r o j e c t u n d e r t a k e n by t h e A m e r i c a n A s s o c i a t i o n f o r A t m o s p h e r i c S c i e n c e s (1979-80), E n v i r o n m e n t a l and S o c i e t a l Consequences o f a P o s s i b l e C02-Induced most i m p o r t a n t p o i n t i s t h a t a l l c o a s t a l a r e a s a r e v u l n e r a b l e t o t h e r a v a g e s o f weather, and t h e s e a s . They a r e n o t i n h e r e n t l y , nor i n d e f i n i t e l y , s u s t a i n a b l e g e o l o g i c a l e n t i t i e s . Whether o r not t h e i s s u e s o f c l i m a t e change a r e p e r c e i v e d as a c r i s i s depends l a r g e l y upon whether one i s r i c h o r poor. The i m p a c t s o f c l i m a t e change w i l l a f f e c t poor n a t i o n s d i f f e r e n t l y t h a n r i c h n a t i o n s , r u r a l a r e a s d i f f e r e n t from urban a r e a s , and g e o g r a p h i c a l r e g i o n s o r e n t i t i e s , such as i s l a n d s , d i f f e r e n t s t i l l . Most i m p o r t a n t l y , c l i m a t e change w i l l produce b o t h o p p o r t u n i t i e s and c h a l l e n g e s t o g l o b a l s o c i e t y o v e r a l l . However, t h i s s a i d , i t cannot be o v e r - s t r e s s e d t h a t t h e human-i n d u c e d changes t o t h e w o r l d ' s p h y s i c a l environment e n t a i l s a v e r y narrow window o f o p p o r t u n i t y , and many c o n s i d e r a b l e c h a l l e n g e s , w i t h r e g a r d t o c u r r e n t and f u t u r e p o p u l a t i o n s l i v i n g w i t h i n c o a s t a l u r b a n c e n t r e s , p a r t i c u l a r l y i n t h e s t i l l d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s . W h i l e "what t h e poor p e r c e i v e i n t i m e s o f s t r e s s i s r a r e l y s t u d i e d ... t h e r e i s g e n e r a l agreement t h a t t h e y endure t h e b i g g e s t a d a p t a t i o n c o s t s " . T h u s , we have t o s t o p l o o k i n g a t i s s u e s o f u r b a n p l a n n i n g as i f t h e y were t o t a l l y s e p a r a t e , and d i s t i n c t , from i s s u e s and a c t i v i t i e s r e l a t e d t o t h e n a t u r a l environment w h i c h C l i m a t e Change d i s c u s s e d i n R o b e r t S. Chen, E. B o u l d i n g , and S. S c h n e i d e r , E d i t o r s (1983) , S o c i a l S c i e n c e R e s e a r c h and C l i m a t e Change (D. R e i d e l P u b l i s h i n g Company; D o r d r e c h t , B o s t o n ) . J i m M a c N e i l l , John Cox, D a v i d R u n n a l l s (1989), CIDA and S u s t a i n a b l e Development. (The I n s t i t u t e f o r R e s e a r c h on P u b l i c P o l i c y ; H a l i f a x , Nova S c o t i a ) ; pg. 43. s u p p o r t s a l l human a c t i v i t i e s . D e s p i t e r e c e n t g l o b a l i n i t i a t i v e s t o d i s c u s s , and a c t i n accordance w i t h , g l o b a l c l i m a t e change, we s t i l l have a fundamental f l a w i n our m i n d s e t , a d d r e s s i n g c o n cerns as m e r e l y t e c h n i c a l and economic problems r e q u i r i n g q u i c k - f i x a pproaches and s o l u t i o n s . The i s s u e o f sea l e v e l r i s e i s p a r t i c u l a r i l y c o n t e n t i o u s because i t a f f e c t s a l l a s p e c t s o f human s o c i e t y f r o m a p l a n n i n g p o i n t o f v i e w . Wet r i c e and o t h e r forms o f a g r i c u l t u r e i n low-l y i n g c o a s t a l a r e a s i s not s u s t a i n a b l e i f w a t e r l e v e l s r i s e , and s a l t w a t e r i n t r u d e s . R e s i d e n t i a l communities a r e n o t s u s t a i n a b l e f o r t h e same r e a s o n s . Tourism as an economic l i v e l i h o o d i s not s u s t a i n a b l e i f beaches a r e washed away, and c o r a l r e e f s i n u n d a t e d . C o a s t a l developments o f any k i n d l o c a t e d i n r e g i o n s s u b j e c t t o t s u n a m i s , s t o r m s u r g e s and h u r r i c a n e s , a r e n o t s u s t a i n a b l e i f t h e s e n a t u r a l h a z a r d s a c c e l e r a t e i n t h e i r f r e q u e n c y and i n t e n s i t y . These a r e j u s t some o f t h e i m p a c t s o f a t m o s p h e r i c change. There a r e a m u l t i t u d e o f o t h e r e c o l o g i c a l r e p e r c u s s i o n s i n c l u d i n g t h e s p r e a d o f d i s e a s e , p e s t s , and l o s s o f h a b i t a t and v u l n e r a b l e s p e c i e s o f f l o r a and faun a . Throughout h i s t o r y , human c i v i l i z a t i o n has c o n t i n u o u s l y adapted t h e i r e x i s t e n c e t o t h e v i c i s s i t u d e s o f t h e c l i m a t e . And h i s t o r y has a l r e a d y shown us n a t u r e i s n e i t h e r i n f i n i t e l y s u s t a i n a b l e i n form, n or u l t i m a t e l y c o n t r o l l a b l e i n f u n c t i o n . T h e r e f o r e , t h a t o n l y l e a v e s t h e dilemma o f s u s t a i n i n g c u r r e n t human a c t i v i t i e s , i n form and f u n c t i o n . How we choose t o u t i l i z e e x i s t i n g r e s o u r c e s shapes our f u t u r e h i s t o r y — s o c i a l l y and p h y s i c a l l y . I f " t h e p a s t i s a f o r e i g n c o u n t r y " , t h e f u t u r e r e m a i n s f o r e i g n t e r r i t o r y , w a i t i n g t o be s u s t a i n e d . V) Presentation of Material T h i s t h e s i s f o c u s e s on t h e problems o f sea l e v e l r i s e i n t h e c o a s t a l c i t i e s t h r o u g h o u t t h e w o r l d as a r e s u l t o f g l o b a l c l i m a t e change stemming from t h e "greenhouse e f f e c t " . The c o m b i n a t i o n o f g l o b a l warming, i n c r e a s i n g p o p u l a t i o n l e v e l s , and t h e i n c r e a s i n g t r e n d o f u r b a n i z a t i o n a r e d i s c u s s e d i n subsequent c h a p t e r s as consequences o f contemporary urban growth and change w h i c h has r e s u l t e d from p a t t e r n s o f economic development t o d a t e . I n Chapter Two, s e v e r a l c o u n t r y p r o f i l e s a r e i n c l u d e d w h i c h c o v e r b o t h t h e d e v e l o p e d , and t h e s t i l l d e v e l o p i n g urban c o a s t a l c i t i e s and n a t i o n s . C u r r e n t c i r c u m s t a n c e s and a n t i c i p a t e d i m p a c t s a r e p r e s e n t e d , a l o n g w i t h some o f t h e l o c a l p l a n n i n g and government r e s p o n s e s t o d a t e . The range o f p l a n n i n g r e s p o n s e s r e q u i r e d t o a d d r e s s t h e s e coming changes i s p r e s e n t e d i n C h a p t e r T h r e e , i n t h e form o f a w o r k i n g " l i s t " as a p r e l i m i n a r y s t a r t i n g p o i n t f o r a c t i o n . The i s s u e o f " u n c e r t a i n t y " i n p l a n n i n g i s a g a i n a d d r e s s e d , t a k i n g a c l o s e r l o o k a t s p e c i f i c p r oblems, t h e gaps i n knowledge, and t h e c o n s t r a i n t s t o p r o a c t i v e p l a n n i n g approaches. C h a p t e r Four c o n c l u d e s w i t h an a n a l y s i s o f t h e problems, p r o p o s e d s o l u t i o n s , and i n i t i a t i v e s on a g l o b a l l e v e l t o a d d r e s s c l i m a t e change i n g e n e r a l . ^ D a v i d Lowenthal (1985). The P a s t i s a F o r e i g n C o u n t r y . (Cambridge U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s ; Cambridge, M a s s a c h u s e t t s ) . and s e a l e v e l r i s e i n p a r t i c u l a r . T h i s p aper i s not about e x p l o r i n g , i n m i n u t e d e t a i l , t h e p h y s i c a l mechanisms o f t h e Greenhouse E f f e c t . I t i s n o t about a r g u i n g whether a q u a n t i t y o f "x" w i l l produce a "y" a f f e c t . T h i s p a p e r m e r e l y o u t l i n e s t h e b a s i c p r e c e p t s b e h i n d g l o b a l c l i m a t e change because t h e voluminous s c i e n t i f i c l i t e r a t u r e more a d e q u a t e l y a d d r e s s e s t h e s c i e n t i f i c d e t a i l s and a n a l y s i s o f t h e problem. I n s t e a d , t h i s paper d e t a i l s t h e c u r r e n t l y e x p e r i e n c e d problems, as w e l l as t h o s e a n t i c i p a t e d , w i t h r e g a r d t o sea l e v e l r i s e i m p a c t s . T h i s i n f o r m a t i o n i n p r e s e n t e d i n t h e c o n t e x t o f e x a m i n i n g t h e r o l e o f human a c t i v i t i e s i n c r e a t i n g g l o b a l c l i m a t e change, and t h e r o l e o f p l a n n e r s i n a d d r e s s i n g i t . The problems and concerns over sea l e v e l r i s e i n p a r t i c u l a r were chosen o v e r o t h e r , e q u a l l y as s e r i o u s , e n v i r o n m e n t a l and human pro b l e m s a f f e c t i n g p l a n n i n g because, I b e l i e v e , r i s i n g s e a l e v e l s p r o v i d e a more " v i s u a l " example o f a r i s i n g p l a n n i n g dilemmas. The l o s s o f l a n d upon w h i c h t o l i v e , p l a y , and work can be v i s u a l l y a p p r e c i a t e d w i t h g r e a t e r ease t h a n c a n , f o r i n s t a n c e , ozone d e p l e t i o n , o r COj b u i l d - u p , o r d e c r e a s e d o x i d a t i o n — a l l s e r i o u s i m p l i c a t i o n s o f g l o b a l warming. I f t h e l a n d b e n e a t h y o u r f e e t i s v a n i s h i n g , o r i f y o u r d r i n k i n g water i s c o n t a m i n a t e d by i n t r u d i n g s a l t w a t e r , you know i t — i m m e d i a t e l y . There i s no need t o " w a i t and s e e " u n t i l a l l t h e " f a c t s " a r e i n . And, you can f e e l t h e immediate consequences o f i t — e c o n o m i c a l l y and p o l i t i c a l l y . Few o f us can w alk on w a t e r . A l s o , t h e problem o f r i s i n g sea l e v e l s i s c u r r e n t l y t h e most w i d e l y r e c o g n i z e d as one o f t h e s t r a t e g i c t h r e a t s a r i s i n g from g l o b a l warming as a r e s u l t o f human a c t i v i t i e s . As U n i t e d S t a t e s V i c e - P r e s i d e n t A l Gore s t a t e s . I n t h e c o u r s e o f a s i n g l e g e n e r a t i o n , we a r e i n danger o f c h a n g i n g t h e makeup o f t h e g l o b a l atmosphere f a r more d r a m a t i c a l l y t h a n any v o l c a n o i n h i s t o r y , and t h e e f f e c t s may p e r s i s t f o r c e n t u r i e s t o come. The g l o b a l t e m p e r a t u r e changes f o r w h i c h we a r e r e s p o n s i b l e a r e l i k e l y t o be f i v e t i m e s l a r g e r t h a n t h e f l u c t u a t i o n s t h a t p r o d u c e d t h e L i t t l e I c e Age, f o r example, o r t h e g l o b a l c l i m a t e change t h a t l e d t o t h e G r e a t Famine o f 1314-17.^^ A c c o r d i n g t o P r o f e s s o r O b a s i , " C l i m a t e and c l i m a t e change w i l l c e r t a i n l y have an e f f e c t on t h e f u t u r e s u s t a i n a b l e development of much of our p l a n e t ' s r e s o u r c e s such as t h o s e r e l a t i n g t o b i o d i v e r s i t y , w a t e r , f o r e s t s , l a n d and oceans as w e l l as i n r e l a t i o n t o v a r i o u s s e c t o r a l a c t i v i t i e s l i k e a g r i c u l t u r e and i n d u s t r y . "^ ^ T h e r e f o r e , i t i s argued t h a t i f t h e p h y s i c a l systems w h i c h g o v e r n t h e s e h a b i t a t s cannot be i n c o r p o r a t e d i n t o d i s c u s s i o n s o f r e g i o n a l p l a n n i n g , and s p e c i f i c a l l y urban p l a n n i n g , t h e n s o c i e t i e s have l i t t l e hope t o a d e q u a t e l y r espond t o i n e v i t a b l e change. The r e s u l t c o u l d be, (as we have a l r e a d y begun t o s e e ) , a s e r i e s o f c r i s e s compounded by t h e h o p e l e s s n e s s o f a f u t u r e w i t h o u t " o t h e r o p t i o n s " . What happens a t a l o c a l l e v e l , i n i n c r e a s i n g l y ^ A l Gore (1992), Op. c i t . ; page 74. " P r o f e s s o r G.O.P. O b a s i (1992) , C l i m a t e Chancre. Environment and Development. World L e a d e r s ' V i e w p o i n t s . (World M e t e r o l o g i c a l S o c i e t y ; Geneva); Forward, page v. u r b a n i z e d c e n t r e s , compounds i n t o r e g i o n a l dynamics, and f u r t h e r e s c a l a t e s i n t o g l o b a l i s s u e s o f e q u i t y and s e c u r i t y . The i m p a c t s o f our fundamental f l a w i n o u r t h i n k i n g ( t h a t u n t i l r e c e n t l y we d i d not c o n s i d e r t h e l i n k a g e s o f development t o t h e p h y s i c a l environment which s u p p o r t s i t ) , i s n o t l i m i t e d t o w o r s t - c a s e s c e n a r i o s f o r t h e urban poor i n t h e s t i l l d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s . On t h e c o n t r a r y , i t s i g n a l s t h e d e c l i n e o f economic and p o l i t i c a l s t a b i l i t y (not t o mention e n v i r o n m e n t a l v i a b i l i t y ) o f a l l c i t i e s , r e g i o n s and n a t i o n s around t h e w o r l d s i t u a t e d i n c o a s t a l a r e a s . W i t h t h i s f oreshadowing of t h e f u t u r e i n mind, we now b e g i n t h e j o u r n e y t o w a r d t h e f u t u r e , w i t h a f i r s t l o o k a t where we a r e a t , and where we might be headed. CHAPTER TWO SEA LEVEL RISE IN COASTAL & ISLAND COMMUNITIES i) Introduction a) Current Conditions: The c o u n t r y , c i t y , and i s l a n d p r o f i l e s w h i c h f o l l o w f o c u s on d i s c u s s i o n s o f p e n d i n g sea l e v e l r i s e i m p a c t s , and some p l a n n i n g i n i t i a t i v e s t o d a t e , i n o r d e r t o i l l u s t r a t e t h e p e r v a s i v e problems i n v o l v e d . The p r o f i l e s s e l e c t e d were chosen f o r t h r e e main r e a s o n s : F i r s t , b o t h t h e d e v e l o p e d and t h e d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s s h a r e common e n v i r o n m e n t a l problems and r i s k s as major c o a s t a l c e n t r e s w h i c h s u p p o r t b o t h economies and p o p u l a t i o n s t h a t a r e a f f e c t e d by g l o b a l changes i n sea l e v e l r i s e ( w i t h r e g i o n a l v a r i a t i o n s ) . F o r example, t h e s e urban c e n t r e s p o s s e s s e x t e n s i v e c o a s t l i n e a r e a s , as w e l l as a r e a s o f l o w - l y i n g t e r r a i n , as p a r t o f t h e i r g e o g r a p h i c a l make-up. Second, t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l development a g e n c i e s c o n t i n u e t o c o n c e n t r a t e t h e i r development programmes w i t h i n e x i s t i n g c o a s t a l c e n t r e s a l r e a d y a t r i s k , t h u s i n v e s t m e n t s t o d a t e i n i n f r a s t r u c t u r e , as w e l l as community development i n g e n e r a l a r e a t r i s k . F o r t h e d e v e l o p e d and t h e n e w l y - i n d u s t r i a l i z e d c o u n t r i e s ( N I C s ) , t h i s means s u b s t a n t i a l economic i n v e s t m e n t , as w e l l as f u t u r e hope, has a l r e a d y been i n v e s t e d . F u r t h e r m o r e , i n c r e a s i n g u r b an development i n c o a s t a l zones by l o c a l governments i n t h e T h i r d W orld have a l s o c o n c e n t r a t e d t h e b u l k o f t h e i r economic a s s e t s i n zones a t r i s k t o r i s i n g sea l e v e l s ( I n c e , 1990). T h i r d , massive f o o d - p r o d u c i n g a r e a s i n t h e d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s , l i k e t h e d e l t a s o f t h e Mekong, t h e Y a n g t z e , and t h e N i l e a r e e s p e c i a l l y v u l n e r a b l e t o impac t s o f s e a l e v e l r i s e . F u r t h e r m o r e , many o f t h e s e c o u n t r i e s a r e h e a v i l y dependent upon t h e i r c o a s t a l r e s o u r c e s t o s u p p o r t b u r g e o n i n g p o p u l a t i o n s — which a r e i n c r e a s i n g l y b e i n g c o n c e n t r a t e d i n urban c e n t r e s , f o r example, t h e c i t i e s o f C a l c u t t a , Lagos, R i o , C a i r o , and Bangkok a r e a l l near sea l e v e l . Thus, t h e f o l l o w i n g p r o f i l e s r e p r e s e n t t h o s e g e o g r a p h i c a l r e g i o n s most v u l n e r a b l e t o r i s i n g s e a l e v e l s , i n c l u d i n g S o u t h e a s t A s i a , A u s t r a l i a , t h e South P a c i f i c I s l a n d s , t h e H a w a i i a n I s l a n d s , t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s , and t h e M e d i t e r r a n e a n and N i l e r e g i o n s . The U n i t e d N a t i o n s Environment Program r e p o r t (1989) s p e c i f i c a l l y c i t e d Bangladesh, T h a i l a n d , I n d o n e s i a , The M a l d i v e s , P a k i s t a n , E gypt, Mozambique, The Gambia, S e n e g a l , Surinam (see a l s o T a b l e 1) as t h e t e n d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s most v u l n e r a b l e t o sea l e v e l r i s e . ^ ^ ^ M a r t i n I n c e (1990), The R i s i n g Seas ( E a r t h s c a n P u b l i c a t i o n s I n c . ; London); page 58. ^ O r i g i n a l l y c i t e d i n UNEP R e p o r t , " C r i t e r i a f o r A s s e s s i n g V u l n e r a b i l i t y t o S e a - L e v e l R i s e : A G l o b a l I n v e n t o r y t o H i g h R i s k A r e a s " ( D e l f t , N e t h e r l a n d s : D e l f t H y d r a u l i c s L a b o r a t o r y , 1989); r e f e r r e d t o by M a r t i n Ince (1990) The R i s i n g Seas. ( E a r t h s c a n P u b l i c a t i o n s ; London); page 58. Table 1 Ten Countries Most Vulnerable to Sea Level Rise Countries Population Per Capita Income (million) (dollars) Bangladesh 114.7 160 Egypt 54.8 710 The Gambia 0.8 220 Indonesia 184.6 450 Maldives 0.2 300 Mozambique 15.2 150 Pakistan 110.4 350 Senegal 5.2 510 Surinam 0.4 2,360 Thailand 55.6 840 Sources: United Nations Environment Programme, Criteria for Assessing Vul-nerability to Sea-Level Rise: A Global Inventory to High Risk Areas (Delft, Netherlands: Delft Hydraulics Laboratory, 1989); income and population data from Population Reference Bureau, 1989 World Population Data Sheet, Washington, D.C. , 1989. Source: i n M a r t i n I n c e (1990). The R i s i n g Seas. ( E a r t h s c a n P u b l i c a t i o n s I n c . ; London); page 59. A c c o r d i n g t o r e c e n t s t u d i e s (Yap (1989) and M a c N e i l l ( 1 9 8 9 ) ) , t h e p r o c e s s i n g and consumption o f v a s t amounts o f n a t u r a l r e s o u r c e s , b o t h renewable and non-renewable, and t h e g e n e r a t i o n o f waste and p o l l u t i o n a r e b e i n g i n c r e a s i n g c o n c e n t r a t e d i n , and d r i v e n by, t h e needs o f e v e r - g r o w i n g urban c e n t r e s . ^ " These urban c e n t r e s have t h u s become t h e e n g i n e s o r p e r p e t r a t o r s o f c l i m a t e change, l e a d i n g t o g l o b a l warming t h r o u g h t h e greenhouse e f f e c t . F o r t h e c o a s t a l communities i n t h e l e s s d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s a °^ D e r i v e d from a paper by N o n i t a Yap, Environmenta1 P r o t e c t i o n i n D e v e l o p i n g C o u n t r i e s and Canadian Development A s s i s t a n c e (Ottawa: I n s t i t u t e f o r R e s e a r c h on P u b l i c P o l i c y , 1989), d i s c u s s e d by M a c N e i l l , e t a l . (1989) i n CIDA and S u s t a i n a b l e Development; (The I n s t i t u t e f o r R e s e a r c h on P u b l i c P o l i c y ; H a l i f a x , Nova S c o t i a ) ; page 49. m u l t i t u d e o f i s s u e s a r i s e w i t h r e g a r d t o sea l e v e l r i s e , compounding e x i s t i n g problems o f l a n d l e s s n e s s , p o v e r t y , i n a d e q u a t e s h e l t e r and s e r v i c e s , and t h r e a t s t o n a t i o n a l s e c u r i t y . For c o a s t a l communities i n t h e a l r e a d y d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s , s u b s t a n t i a l economic and community l o s s e s a r e a l s o a m ajor f a c t o r . T h e r e f o r e t h e examples w h i c h f o l l o w demonstrate t h e i n t e r a c t i o n o f c l i m a t e change w i t h a l r e a d y e x i s t i n g problems f o r c o a s t a l u r b a n c e n t r e s a t r i s k f r o m s e a l e v e l r i s e i m p a c t s , among o t h e r greenhouse f a c t o r s . b) Projected Future Conditions: W o r l d p o p u l a t i o n l e v e l s c u r r e n t l y s t a n d a t 5.3 b i l l i o n p e o p l e a c c o r d i n g t o t h e b e s t U n i t e d N a t i o n s e s t i m a t e s , w i t h an i n c r e a s e t o 6.3 b i l l i o n e x p e c t e d by t h e y e a r 2000. A p p r o x i m a t e l y 45.2 p e r c e n t o f t h e w o r l d ' s p o p u l a t i o n i s c u r r e n t l y based i n u r b a n c e n t r e s . I n t h e d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s t h i s r e p r e s e n t s about 1.3 b i l l i o n p e o p l e w i t h a p r e d i c t e d i n c r e a s e t o 2 b i l l i o n by t h e y e a r 2000, and a f u r t h e r i n c r e a s e t o 3.8 b i l l i o n by 2025. These f i g u r e s r e p r e s e n t an i n c r e a s e i n urban p o p u l a t i o n s o v e r a l l t o 51.1 p e r c e n t by t h e y e a r 2000, up from t h e c u r r e n t 45.2 p e r c e n t . The i m p o r t a n t p o i n t h e r e i s t h a t we a r e l i v i n g i n an i n c r e a s i n g l y u r b a n i z i n g w o r l d . F u r t h e r m o r e , a p p r o x i m a t e l y 61% o f t h e w o r l d ' s c u r r e n t p o p u l a t i o n r e s i d e w i t h i n c o a s t a l zones, more F i g u r e s d e r i v e d from two s o u r c e s : A. L a q u i a n , "The Urban C h a l l e n g e : U r b a n i z a t i o n Trends and C h a l l e n g e s i n t h e 1990s" ( C e n t r e f o r Human S e t t l e m e n t s , U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a ; Canada); and J . M a c N e i l l , e t . a l . (1989) CIDA and S u s t a i n a b l e Development. (The I n s t i t u t e f o r R e s e a r c h on P u b l i c P o l i c y ; H a l i f a x , Nova S c o t i a ) . s p e c i f i c a l l y i n major urban c e n t r e s w h i c h a r e v u l n e r a b l e t o sea l e v e l r i s e (see F i g . 3) . I n 1985, an i n t e r n a t i o n a l c o n f e r e n c e s p o n s o r e d by t h e World M e t e o r o l o g i c a l O r g a n i z a t i o n i n V i l l a c h , A u s t r i a r e p o r t e d an e x p e c t e d r i s e i n s e a - l e v e l w i t h i n t h e n e x t 50 y e a r s between 20-140 cm caused by e i t h e r l a n d - b a s e d g l a c i a l m e l t i n g and t h r o u g h t h e t h e r m a l e x p a n s i o n o f oceans.'^ I n terms o f sea l e v e l r i s e , g e n e r a l l y a 1 cm r i s e i n s e a - l e v e l w i l l cause t h e s h o r e l i n e t o r e t r e a t 50-100 cm, t h e r e f o r e a r i s e o f 20-30 cm i n t h e n e x t 50 y e a r s would p r o b a b l y cause a sandy beach s h o r e l i n e t o r e t r e a t shoreward by 10-30 m e t e r s . A c c o r d i n g t o E d g e r t o n (1991), on a g e n t l e s l o p e (20:1, h o r i z o n t a l t o v e r t i c a l ) , i g n o r i n g s u b s i d e n c e and u p l i f t i n g , a 1-meter r i s e would r a i s e a t i d e l andward by a p p r o x i m a t e l y 20 meters (65.6 f e e t ) W h e r e w i l l t h e s e p o p u l a t i o n s r e l o c a t e ? World M e t e r o l o g i c a l O r g a n i z a t i o n (1986) R e p o r t o f t h e I n t e r n a t i o n a l C o n f e r e n c e on t h e Assessment o f t h e R o l e o f Carbon D i o x i d e and o t h e r Greenhouse Gases i n C l i m a t e V a r i a t i o n s and A s s o c i a t e d Impacts. No. 661. ( V i l l a c h , A u s t r i a ) . Edward B r y a n t (1991) , "Sea L e v e l and Greenhouse: P l a n n i n g f o r change" i n A u s t r a l i a n P l a n n e r . March 1991; page 28. B r y a n t i s a geographer a t t h e U n i v e r s i t y o f Wollongong, A u s t r a l i a . He p r o v i d e s a d e t a i l e d d i s c u s s i o n o f measurements, i m p a c t s and p l a n n i n g r e s p o n s e s , e s p e c i a l l y w i t h r e g a r d t o A u s t r a l i a . ^ Lynne T. E d g e r t o n (1991). The R i s i n g T i d e . G l o b a l Warming and W o r l d Sea L e v e l s . ( N a t u r a l Resources Defense C o u n c i l . I s l a n d P r e s s ; Washington, D.C. and C o v e l o , C a l i f o r n i a ) ; page 24. Figure 3 Areas Vulnerable to Rising Sea Level Source: Environmental Protection Agency S o u r c e : i n M a r t i n I n c e (1990). The R i s i n g Seas. ( E a r t h s c a n P u b l i c a t i o n s I n c . ; London); page 128. I n a d d i t i o n t o i n c r e a s i n g p o p u l a t i o n l e v e l s , i t i s c u r r e n t l y a n t i c i p a t e d t h a t more t h a n 28 urban c e n t r e s w i l l become m e g a c i t i e s by t h e y e a r 2000 w i t h p o p u l a t i o n s o f 25 m i l l i o n o r more (as i s c u r r e n t l y t h e case i n Mexico C i t y ) ; 22 o f t h e s e c i t i e s w i l l be i n t h e d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s . A c c o r d i n g t o A p r o d i c i o L a q u i a n , D i r e c t o r o f t h e C e n t r e f o r Human S e t t l e m e n t s , a t t h e U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a , " w h i l e m e g a - c i t i e s o f e i g h t m i l l i o n o r more a r e growing r a p i d l y , a g g l o m e r a t i o n s o f f i v e m i l l i o n o r more a r e g r o w i n g even f a s t e r " . Thus, t h i s " s p r e a d i n g u r b a n i s m as a way o f l i f e " w i l l p l a c e a c c e l e r a t i n g p r e s s u r e s on t h e p h y s i c a l e n vironment and r e s o u r c e s f o r t h e s e a r e a s . F u r t h e r m o r e , i t i s u r b a n l i f e s t y l e s and development w h i c h , t o d a t e , have promoted g l o b a l warming t h r o u g h e s c a l a t i n g p r o d u c t i o n o f , and a c c u m u l a t i o n s i n , greenhouse gases. P r o f e s s o r O b a s i , S e c r e t a r y - G e n e r a l o f t h e W o r l d M e t e o r o l o g i c a l O r g a n i z a t i o n s t a t e s t h a t , "... c l i m a t e change i s one o f t h e c e n t r a l a r e a s o f c o n c e r n w h i c h i s p a r t o f t h e c u r r e n t w o r l d - w i d e a t t e n t i o n on t h e theme o f environment and development."^^ The u n c e r t a i n t y g e n e r a t e d by c l i m a t e change, i n c r e a s i n g p o p u l a t i o n l e v e l s , and t h e e v o l u t i o n o f m e g a c i t i e s adds c o n s i d e r a b l y t o t h e c u r r e n t debate o f s u s t a i n a b l e development, f o r p r e s e n t and f u t u r e g e n e r a t i o n s . i i ) C i t y and Country P r o f i l e s The f o l l o w i n g p r o f i l e s r e p r e s e n t a c o l l e c t i v e g l a n c e a t what i s c u r r e n t l y known, and a n t i c i p a t e d , about t h e i m p a c t s o f sea l e v e l r i s e upon t h e s e c o a s t a l communities. The p r o f i l e s d i f f e r i n t h e t y p e o f i n f o r m a t i o n t h e y p r o v i d e because each p l a c e p o s s e s s e s a u n i q u e environment, each w i t h i t s own problems p e c u l i a r t o t h e i r p h y s i c a l e nvironment, and s o c i a l , p o l i t i c a l and economic c i r c u m s t a n c e s . F o l l o w i n g t h e p r o f i l e s i s a d i s c u s s i o n a t g r e a t e r l e n g t h o f t h e i m p a c t s f o r p l a n n i n g i n g e n e r a l , and t h e g l o b a l community a t l a r g e , i d e n t i f y i n g key i m p a c t s f o r urban i n f r a s t r u c t u r e and economic systems i n p a r t i c u l a r . " G.O.P. O b a s i (1992) i n Foreword t o C1imate Change. Environment and Development. World L e a d e r s ' V i e w p o i n t s . ( S e c r e t a r i a t o f t h e World M e t e o r o l o g i c a l O r g a n i z a t i o n ; Geneva, S w i t z e r l a n d ) ; page v. a) The Developed Countries: THE UNITED STATES The U n i t e d S t a t e s has a t o t a l o f 25 c o a s t a l s t a t e s which a r e s u b j e c t t o sea l e v e l r i s e i m p a c t s , (not i n c l u d i n g t h e G r e a t Lakes s t a t e s , P u e r t o R i c o , V i r g i n I s l a n d s , N o r t h e r n M a r i a n a s , American Samoa, and Guam). A l t h o u g h each c o a s t a l a r e a p o s s e s s e s unique c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s and r e s p o n s e s , t h e r e a r e s e v e r a l common themes. F i r s t , t h e shape o f c o a s t l i n e s w i l l be a l t e r e d r e s u l t i n g i n t h e l o s s o f c o a s t a l l a n d and marshes, d i s r u p t i o n o f t r a n s p o r t a t i o n , and e v e n t u a l l y t h e l o s s o f u p l a n d a r e a s . Second, changes i n t i d a l c i r c u l a t i o n w i l l cause i n c r e a s e d wave a c t i o n , i n c r e a s e d f l o o d i n g , and impeded d r a i n a g e . F i n a l l y , t h e c h e m i c a l and m i n e r a l makeup o f t h e w a t e r w i l l change. I n many a r e a s , t h e r a t e o f s e d i m e n t a t i o n w i l l s l o w down. I n c r e a s e d s a l t s and c h l o r i d e s w i l l harm i r r i g a t e d c r o p s and p o i s o n groundwater, t h u s d e s t r o y i n g t h e d r i n k i n g water s u p p l y f o r l o c a l p o p u l a t i o n s . I n May 1986 t h e N a t i o n a l Resource and Defence C o u n c i l d i s t r i b u t e d a q u e s t i o n n a i r e t o c o a s t a l managers i n each o f t h e c o a s t a l s t a t e s r e q u e s t i n g i n f o r m a t i o n c o n c e r n i n g s t a t e and l o c a l p l a n n i n g e f f o r t s , i n c l u d i n g s t u d i e s , p l a n s , and l e g i s l a t i o n , t h a t t h e s t a t e s and l o c a l governments were u n d e r t a k i n g t o address p r o b l e m s e n s u i n g from sea l e v e l r i s e . To d a t e , s i x t e e n c o a s t a l s t a t e s have a l r e a d y i n i t i a t e d s t u d i e s o f sea l e v e l r i s e and i t s e f f e c t s on t h e i r c o a s t a l regions.^* A l t h o u g h sea l e v e l r i s e was n o t t a k e n i n t o a c c o u n t i n d e s i g n i n g most c o a s t a l zone management programs, t h e K l a r i n and Hershman r e p o r t (1990) c o n c l u d e d t h a t " D e s p i t e t h e magnitude o f p o t e n t i a l problems, t h e c h a l l e n g e s p r e s e n t e d by a sea l e v e l r i s e a r e n o t unmanageable". They s t a t e d t h a t a number o f laws and p o l i c i e s a l r e a d y i n p l a c e c o u l d be used t o a d d r e s s t h e problems t h a t must be f a c e d . Maine, S o u t h C a r o l i n a and San F r a n c i s c o Bay a r e a have a l r e a d y adopted p o l i c i e s w hich r e s p o n d t o s e a l e v e l r i s e . ^ ^ However, d e s p i t e t h e c o n f i d e n c e o f t h e K l a r i n / H e r s h m a n r e p o r t , E d g e r t o n r e p o r t s t h a t l o c a l s t u d i e s have c o n s i s t e n t l y p r o v e d t h a t " e f f e c t s [ o f sea l e v e l r i s e ] w i l l be d e v a s t a t i n g t h r o u g h o u t t h e c o a s t a l U.S.", t h u s s u g g e s t i n g t h a t perhaps t h e c o n f i d e n c e e x p r e s s e d by K l a r i n and Hershman i s b o t h premature and t o o o p t i m i s t i c . More r e c e n t e v e n t s i n F l o r i d a i n 1992 and C a l i f o r n i a i n 1993, among o t h e r s o u t h e a s t e r n s t a t e s , appear t o s u p p o r t t h e l a t t e r v i e w . CALIFORNIA C u r r e n t l y , o v e r 60% o f C a l i f o r n i a ' s p o p u l a t i o n l i v e s w i t h i n c o a s t a l c o u n t i e s and t h i s p e r c e n t a g e i s e x p e c t e d t o i n c r e a s e . The C a l i f o r n i a c o a s t l i n e i s c o m p r i s e d o f c l i f f s , beaches, and a v a r i e t y o f w e t l a n d t y p e s s t r e t c h i n g o v e r 1,100 m i l e s . A p p r o x i m a t e l y 86% o f t h i s c o a s t l i n e i s p r e s e n t l y e r o d i n g . Almost 10% o f t h e e r o d i n g *^ P. K l a r i n and M. Hershman, "Response o f C o a s t a l Zone Management Programs t o Sea L e v e l R i s e i n t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s " , C o a s t a l Management 1 8 ( 3 ) , Summer 1990 i n E d g e r t o n (1991) Op. C i t . E d g e r t o n (1991), Op. C i t . ; page 49. a r e a s have hardened s h o r e l i n e p r o t e c t i v e s t r u c t u r e s , and a d d i t i o n a l s e c t i o n s employ n o n s t r u c t u r a l p r o t e c t i v e methods. C a l i f o r n i a has a g e o l o g i c a l l y a c t i v e c o a s t l i n e as does Washington S t a t e , and B r i t i s h Columbia i n Canada. T h e r e f o r e i n c a l c u l a t i n g r e l a t i v e sea l e v e l r i s e , l o c a l l a n d s u b s i d e n c e and u p l i f t must be t a k e n i n t o account. A c c o r d i n g t o E d g e r t o n i n The R i s i n g T i d e , t h e a r e a s of Santa B a r b a r a and V e n t u r a c o u n t i e s a r e c u r r e n t l y u n d e r g o i n g u p l i f t , w h i l e t h e a r e a s o f Humboldt and San Mateo c o u n t i e s a r e u n d e r g o i n g s u b s i d e n c e . E d g e r t o n r e p o r t s t h a t even t h o s e a r e a s u n d e r g o i n g r a p i d r a t e s o f c o a s t a l u p l i f t w i l l s t i l l e x p e r i e n c e beach e r o s i o n , b l u f f r e t r e a t , and submergence of l o w l a n d a r e a s ; w i t h t h e g r e a t e s t impact o c c u r r i n g i n l o w - l y i n g a r e a s , w h i c h would be c o m p l e t e l y i n u n d a t e d . M o d e r a t e l y s e v e r e i m p a c t s w i l l o c c u r i n a r e a s w i t h broad beaches o r f r a g i l e c o a s t a l b l u f f s p r o t e c t e d by l o o s e r o c k y m a t e r i a l . The l e a s t impact w i l l o c c u r i n a r e a s o f r e s i s t a n t , s t e e p c o a s t a l c l i f f s . ^ * E d g e r t o n r e p o r t s "Assuming t h a t a low sea l e v e l r i s e by t h e y e a r 2050 would be 0.1 meter, a moderate r i s e by 2050 would be 0.3 meter, and a h i g h r i s e by 2050 would be 0.45 meter" a r e c e n t s t u d y has e s t i m a t e d t h e f o l l o w i n g impacts a r e l i k e l y t o o c c u r Lynne T. E d g e r t o n (1991), I b i d ; page 50. Based on a s t u d y by t h e C a l i f o r n i a C o a s t a l Commission, D r a f t R e p o r t ; P l a n n i n g f o r an A c c e l e r a t e d Sea L e v e l R i s e A l o n g t h e C a l i f o r n i a C o a s t , p r e p a r e d by L e s l e y C. Ewing, Jaime M. M i c h a e l s , and R i c h a r d J . McCarthy, June 26, 1989; p r e p a r e d by t h e s t a f f o f t h e C a l i f o r n i a C o a s t a l Commission t o i n v e s t i g a t e p o s s i b l e e f f e c t s Sea l e v e l r i s e w i l l e x a c e r b a t e e x i s t i n g e r o s i o n problems and cause e r o s i o n and c l i f f r e t r e a t i n currently stable areas. C o a s t a l beaches w i l l be reduced i n s i z e . C o a s t a l beach r e t r e a t between 30 t o 200 f e e t can be e x p e c t e d by t h e y e a r 2050. I n some a r e a s , 35 t o 100 p e r c e n t o f e x i s t i n g w e t l a n d s c o u l d be l o s t i f development p r e v e n t s u p l a n d m i g r a t i o n . H i g h e r water l e v e l s and wave f o r c e s w i l l i n c r e a s e t h e u p l i f t i n g f o r c e s on p i e r s and e r o s i o n o f f o u n d a t i o n s u p p o r t s . Harbours may e x p e r i e n c e g r e a t e r wave a c t i o n , and h i g h e r w a t e r l e v e l s w i l l a d v e r s e l y a f f e c t l o a d i n g and u n l o a d i n g o f c a r g o s h i p s . E x i s t i n g p r o t e c t i v e s t r u c t u r e s such as b r e a k w a t e r s , s e a w a l l s , and revet m e n t s w i l l n o t be a b l e t o p r o v i d e t h e i r c u r r e n t l e v e l o f p r o t e c t i o n due t o i n c r e a s e d f o r c e s , e r o s i o n , and overtopping.''^ Throughout t h e American c o a s t a l s t a t e s s i m i l a r i m p a c t s would r e s u l t , i n p a r t i c u l a r t h e San F r a n c i s c o Bay a r e a , t h e Delaware E s t u a r y , M a s s a c h u s e t t s , H a w a i i (see i s l a n d communities d i s c u s s i o n ) , t h e s u r r o u n d i n g G r e a t Lakes d i s t r i c t s , and L o u i s i a n a . These i m p a c t s would a l s o a p p l y , t o v a r y i n g degrees, up a l o n g t h e e n t i r e P a c i f i c N o rthwest c o a s t l i n e e x t e n d i n g i n t o B r i t i s h Columbia, Canada. However, a l t h o u g h t h e San Juan de Fuca i s a g e o l o g i c a l l y a c t i v e a r e a , t h e n o r t h e r n P a c i f i c C oast has been r e l a t i v e l y more s t a b l e i n terms o f c o a s t a l e r o s i o n i m p a c t s t h a n i t s ' A t l a n t i c on t h e C a l i f o r n i a c o a s t from an a c c e l e r a t e d sea l e v e l r i s e . The r e p o r t had n o t been approved by t h e commission a t t h e t i m e o f p u b l i c a t i o n ; E d g e r t o n page 50. *• Case s t u d y e x c e r p t from E d g e r t o n (1991), Op. C i t . ; pages 50-51. * * c o u n t e r p a r t due t o a s h o r e l i n e c o m p r ised o f h a r d r o c k . CANADA The f o l l o w i n g Canadian p r o f i l e i s d e r i v e d f r o m two r e p o r t s " P r e l i m i n a r y Study o f t h e P o s s i b l e Impacts o f a One M e t r e R i s e i n Sea L e v e l a t C h a r l o t t e t o w n , P r i n c e Edward I s l a n d " (1988), and " E f f e c t s o f a One Metre R i s e i n Mean S e a - L e v e l a t S a i n t John, New B r u n s w i c k and t h e Lower Reaches o f t h e S a i n t John R i v e r " (1987), p u b l i s h e d by t h e Canadian C l i m a t e C e n t r e . A c c o r d i n g t o Ince (1990) , t h e Canadian government has been one o f t h e f i r s t governments t o t a k e g l o b a l warming s e r i o u s l y , e n g a g i n g i t s F e d e r a l M i n i s t r y o f t h e Environment t o u n d e r t a k e t h e above s t u d i e s , among o t h e r s . The two r e p o r t s p r o v i d e us w i t h t h e b e n e f i t o f d e t a i l i n g v e r y s p e c i f i c i m p a c t s upon urban i n f r a s t r u c t u r e , u n l i k e so many o t h e r s t u d i e s w h i c h p r o v i d e o n l y v a g u e l y o u t l i n e d a n t i c i p a t e d i m p a c t s o f b o t h s e a l e v e l r i s e and g l o b a l c l i m a t e change i n g e n e r a l . F o r t h i s r e a s o n , t h e summary o f t h e two r e p o r t s by In c e (1990), i s q u o t e d as f o l l o w s : ... [a 1 meter] r i s e i n sea l e v e l would have e f f e c t s i n c l u d i n g t h e complete i n u n d a t i o n o f some l a n d , e r o s i o n o f l a n d i n what a r e now i n l a n d a r e a s , s a l i n e a t t a c k on r i v e r s , l a n d and groundwater, and i n c r e a s e d f l o o d i n g . The s i z e o f such e f f e c t s depends upon e v e r y t h i n g f rom t h e d e t a i l e d g e o l o g y o f a q u i f e r s t o t h e p r o f i l e s o f r i v e r c h a n n e l s . B o t h t h e C h a r l o t t e t o w n and t h e S a i n t John . s t u d i e s used s o p h i s t i c a t e d models t o d e t e r m i n e t h e p o s s i b l e e f f e c t s , on t h e b a s i s o f d e t a i l e d mapping and decades o f t i d e d a t a . The work c o n c e r n e d i s p r o b a b l y a b e t t e r g u i d e t o t h e f u l l s c a l e o f t h e p r o b l e m t h a n many c o u n t r i e s , e s p e c i a l l y i n t h e T h i r d World, have f o u n d i t p o s s i b l e t o produce. E d g e r t o n (1991); I b i d ; page 78. The f i r s t s t u d y f i n d s t h a t i n t h e C i t y o f C h a r l o t t e t o w n i t s e l f , an a r r a y o f e x p e n s i v e new w a t e r f r o n t developments would become u n i n h a b i t a b l e , i n c l u d i n g a new c o n v e n t i o n c e n t r e and a c o u r t h o u s e . S e v e r a l s t r e e t s downtown would be below h i g h - w a t e r mark o r s u b j e c t t o f l o o d i n g , and a t o t a l o f 225 b u i l d i n g s would be v u l n e r a b l e t o f l o o d s . The sewage and s t o r m d r a i n systems would c o l l a p s e d u r i n g s t o r m s , and a t h i g h t i d e — and so would t h e swimming p o o l . O u t s i d e town, f l o o d problems would a f f e c t r o a d causeways and o t h e r s t r u c t u r e s . I t may be t h a t t h e s e f l o o d i n g problems c o u l d be eased by b u i l d i n g new p r o t e c t i v e works, and by a l t e r i n g p l a n n i n g p r a c t i c e s t o s h i f t development away from v u l n e r a b l e a r e a s . Harder t o s o l v e would be t h e sea a t t a c k on sewage p i p e s and f l o o d c o n t r o l systems. The c o a s t a l a r e a around S a i n t John c o u l d w e l l be even more r a d i c a l l y a f f e c t e d by sea l e v e l r i s e , s i n c e t h e town l i e s on t h e Bay o f Fundy, w h i c h has some o f t h e most s p e c t a c u l a r t i d e s i n t h e * w o r l d . The t i d a l range t h e r e i s a l r e a d y 8.8m. A Ira r i s e i n sea l e v e l would be accompanied by an i n c r e a s e i n t i d a l r anges t o perhaps 8.95m. H i g h e r t i d e s and sea l e v e l would mean t h a t two o f S a i n t John's major r e s i d e n t i a l suburbs would be i n u n d a t e d c o m p l e t e l y o r s u b j e c t t o s e v e r e f l o o d i n g . A t t h e same t i m e , t h e c i t y ' s r o a d and r a i l l i n k s would be s e r i o u s l y a f f e c t e d . There i s a r i s k t h a t l i n k s t o t h e e a s t o f t h e c i t y c o u l d be c u t a l t o g e t h e r . F u r t h e r economic damage c o u l d be caused by t h e l o s s o f key c e n t r e s o f employment, i n c l u d i n g t h e s h i p y a r d and s u g a r r e f i n e r y . And as a t C h a r l o t t e t o w n , t h e r e i s t h e s e v e r e r i s k t h a t sewage and d r a i n a g e system b u i l t on t h e a s s u m p t i o n o f t o d a y ' s sea l e v e l s would be u n a b l e t o cope. A t S a i n t John t h e r e i s a r i s k t h a t t h e lagoons used t o h o l d t h e c i t y ' s sewage and i n d u s t r i a l waste would be i n u n d a t e d . T h i s would mean an immediate r e l e a s e o f l a r g e amounts o f p o l l u t i o n , and would a l s o c r i p p l e t h e waste systems f o r some t i m e . O t h e r p a r t s o f S a i n t John w h i c h c o u l d be s e r i o u s l y a f f e c t e d by r i s i n g s e a l e v e l s i n c l u d e t h e power s t a t i o n , w h i c h would be v u l n e r a b l e t o f l o o d i n g , t h e c i t y ' s f r e s h w a t e r s u p p l y , and t h e wharf a r e a , w h i c h would be c o m p l e t e l y i n u n d a t e d . These problems w i l l p r o b a b l y be e x p e n s i v e t o s o l v e , and i n t h e Canadians' v i e w w i l l c a l l f o r changes t h r o u g h o u t t h e p l a n n i n g p r o c e s s . However, p o t e n t i a l problems w i t h i n a s i n g l e m o d e s t - s i z e d c i t y a r e a t l e a s t g e o g r a p h i c a l l y c o n f i n e d . The a u t h o r s o f t h e C a n a d i a n r e p o r t n o t e t h a t t h e r e w i l l a l s o be s e v e r e e f f e c t s a l o n g t h e whole o f t h e Fundy c o a s t . The e f f e c t s on t h e S a i n t John r i v e r i t s e l f might be l e s s sweeping because i t s s i z e and shape a r e d e t e r m i n e d e s s e n t i a l l y by t h e f r e s h w a t e r coming down i t , but even he r e , i n c r e a s e d p e n e t r a t i o n o f s a l t w a t e r might d e v a s t a t e l o c a l f i s h s t o c k s . There would a l s o be f l o o d r i s k s t o prime a g r i c u l t u r a l l a n d w h i c h would c a l l f o r investment i n p r o t e c t i o n and perhaps t h e a d o p t i o n o f new a g r i c u l t u r a l p r a c t i c e s . I n c r e a s e d f l o o d i n g c o u l d a l s o c u t t h e c o u n t r y ' s b i g g e s t a r t e r i a l r o a d , t h e Trans-Canada Highway, w i t h s e v e r e e f f e c t s on t h e w h ole r o a d l i n k between C e n t r a l and A t l a n t i c Canada."^ AUSTRALIA A u s t r a l i a i s c a l l e d t h e " i s l a n d c o n t i n e n t " — a s u b s t a n t i a l landmass n e a r l y t h e s i z e of t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s and c o m p l e t e l y s u r r o u n d e d by ocean. The c o u n t r y ' s u r ban development has c o n c e n t r a t e d around t h i s c o a s t a l p e r i p h e r y , s i n c e i t s v a s t i n l a n d t e r r i t o r i e s a r e m o s t l y d e s e r t . The shear s i z e o f t h e c o n t i n e n t ' s c o a s t a l r a n g e i m p l i e s a v a r i e t y o f r e g i o n - s p e c i f i c i m p a c t s w i l l a r i s e due t o c l i m a t e change i n t e r a c t i o n s w i t h t h e s u r r o u n d i n g oceans. I n t h e l i t e r a t u r e on sea l e v e l r i s e i n A u s t r a l i a , c o n s i d e r a b l e d i s c u s s i o n i s g i v e n over t o t h e i m p a c t s upon t h e Gre a t B a r r i e r R e ef. T h i s i s , u n f o r t u n a t e l y , due I b e l i e v e , t o t h e c u r r e n t t r e n d o f geographers, marine s c i e n t i s t s , and e n v i r o n m e n t a l i s t s f o c u s i n g s e l e c t i v e l y on t h e more p u b l i c l y p o p u l a r t h r e a t s t o non-human h a b i t a t s ( l i k e c o r a l r e e f s ) . Y e t human s e t t l e m e n t s a r e a t e q u a l r i s k s i n c e t h e y t o o a r e e n t i r e l y dependent upon t h e i r n a t u r a l environment t o p h y s i c a l l y s u p p o r t and s u s t a i n them. One c u r r e n t e s t i m a t e s u g g e s t s t h a t a r i s e i n s e a l e v e l o f 20-30 cm i n t h e n e x t 50 y e a r s a l o n g A u s t r a l i a ' s sandy beach a r e a The R e p o r t s were p u b l i s h e d by t h e Canadian C l i m a t e C e n t r e i n Downsview, O n t a r i o , and t h e summary o f t h e s e two r e p o r t s appears i n M a r t i n I n c e (1990), The R i s i n g Seas. ( E a r t h s c a n P u b l i c a t i o n s L t d ; L ondon); pages 145-146, would cause c o a s t l i n e s t o r e t r e a t shoreward by 10-3 0 metres, " p l a c i n g development a t c r u c i a l s i t e s a l o n g t h e A u s t r a l i a n c o a s t l i n e t h a t much c l o s e r t o t h e i n f l u e n c e o f s t o r m s u r g e s and waves" I n h i s a r t i c l e " E n v i r o n m e n t a l P r i o r i t i e s and t h e Greenhouse. P l a n n i n g a t t h e L o c a l Government L e v e l " (1991), R o b e r t Zehner r e v i e w e d a 1983 n a t i o n wide s u r v e y d i s t r i b u t e d t o d e t e r m i n e which e n v i r o n m e n t a l i s s u e s were most i m p o r t a n t , a t t h a t t i m e , t o L o c a l Government A r e a (LGAs) c o u n c i l s , as w e l l as a s s e s s t h e e x t e n t t o w h i c h p l a n n i n g f o r greenhouse e f f e c t s had appeared on t h e i r agendas.'" The s u r v e y was m a i l e d t o t h e a t t e n t i o n o f t h e C h i e f Town P l a n n e r i n 883 LGAs, r e c e i v i n g a 76% r e s p o n s e r a t e w i t h t h e c o m p l e t i o n o f 671 s u r v e y s . Zehner r e p o r t s t h a t , d e s p i t e t h e p l e n t i f u l commentary on c l i m a t e change i n A u s t r a l i a i n t h e l o c a l media a t t h a t t i m e , h a l f o f t h e r e s p o n d e n t s s t a t e d t h e r e was "no r e a l i n t e r e s t " on t h e i r c o u n c i l i n p l a n n i n g f o r l o n g - t e r m c l i m a t e change, and t h a t o n l y 10% o f t h e c o u n c i l s had a c t u a l l y p r o g r e s s e d t o t h e s t a t e o f p r e p a r i n g p a p e r s f o r d i s c u s s i o n . The s t u d y a l s o r e v e a l e d greenhouse e f f e c t s were e x p e c t e d i n r o u g h l y h a l f o f t h e LGAs, b u t o n l y 3% o f t h e LGAs had implemented p l a n n i n g - r e l a t e d *^  Edward B r y a n t (1991) . "Sea L e v e l and Greenhouse: P l a n n i n g f o r Change", A u s t r a l i a n P l a n n e r . V o l . 1 (March, 1991); page 28. Note: T h i s s u r v e y i s 11 y e a r s o l d and a t t h a t t i m e A u s t r a l i a was a l r e a d y d e a l i n g w i t h i m p a c t s o f ozone d e p l e t i o n w i t h n a t i o n a l h e a l t h campaigns i n f o r m i n g t h e p u b l i c o f r i s k s sun o v e r e x p o s u r e . changes i n p o l i c y a t t h e t i m e o f t h e s u r v e y / ^ F u r t h e r m o r e , t h e s u r v e y r e v e a l e d most p r o f e s s i o n a l s and government r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s depended upon i n f o r m a l s o u r c e s o f i n f o r m a t i o n ( t e l e v i s i o n , newspapers, r a d i o , f r i e n d s and c o l l e a g u e s ) upon w h i c h t h e y based t h e i r knowledge o f t h e s u b j e c t . O n l y 215 LGAs were aware o f any work b e i n g done by t h e i r own s t a t e government de p a r t m e n t s i n t h i s a r e a , w i t h knowledge o f f e d e r a l government work b e i n g even lower."** However by 1989, Zehner r e p o r t s , " i t would p r o b a b l y have been p o s s i b l e t o a t t e n d a "greenhouse" o r " g l o b a l warming" o r " c l i m a t e change" c o n f e r e n c e , s e m i n a r , o r workshop somewhere i n A u s t r a l i a v i r t u a l l y e v e r y week o f t h e y e a r w i t h a r t i c l e s i n newspapers and j o u r n a l s a p p e a r i n g a l m o s t as frequently."*' Zehner c l a i m s t h i s "benchmark" s u r v e y demonstrates t h a t , " w i t h o r w i t h o u t greenhouse e f f e c t s , most o f A u s t r a l i a ' s LGAs a r e a l r e a d y c o n c e r n e d about a v a r i e t y o f i s s u e s d i r e c t l y r e l a t e d t o t h e e n v i r o n m e n t , from d r a i n a g e t o f l o o d i n g t o e r o s i o n " . " * However t o d a t e , Zehner c o n c l u d e s , many LGA c o u n c i l s r e m a i n r e l a t i v e l y unaware o f f e d e r a l i n i t i a t i v e s t o a d d r e s s t h e s e i s s u e s . R o b e r t Zehner (1991). " E n v i r o n m e n t a l P r i o r i t i e s and t h e Greenhouse: P l a n n i n g a t t h e L o c a l Government L e v e l " , i n A u s t r a l i a n P l a n n e r . V o l . 1 (March, 1991); pages 35-37. Zehner (1991), I b i d ; page 36. Zehner, I b i d . , page 37. ^ Zehner, I b i d . ; page 38. b) The S t i l l Developing Countries: SOUTHEAST ASIA BANGLADESH I n h e r book. The R i s i n g T i d e . G l o b a l Warming and Sea L e v e l R i s e (1991), Lynne E d g e r t o n summarizes t h e c u r r e n t s i t u a t i o n i n Ba n g l a d e s h . Surrounded by I n d i a on t h e Bay o f B e n g a l , Bangladesh and h o s t s one o f t h e most d e n s e l y p o p u l a t e d c o u n t r i e s i n t h e w o r l d . An e s t i m a t e d 93 m i l l i o n p e o p l e occupy 143,000 s q u a r e k i l o m e t r e s , g i v i n g a d e n s i t y o f 650 p e o p l e p e r square k i l o m e t r e . Dhaka i s t h e l a r g e s t c i t y w i t h 4 m i l l i o n p e o p l e , f o l l o w e d by C h i t t a g o n g and Kh u l n a w h i c h have p o p u l a t i o n s o f 1.5 m i l l i o n and 800,000 r e s p e c t i v e l y . "The r e m a i n i n g 86 m i l l i o n p e o p l e a r e e v e n l y d i s t r i b u t e d t h r o u g h o u t t h e c o u n t r y , b a r e l y s u r v i v i n g on s u b s i s t e n c e a g r i c u l t u r e " , as d e t e r m i n e d i n a 1983 s t u d y w h i c h e s t i m a t e d "85 p e r c e n t o f t h e p o p u l a t i o n r e c e i v e d l e s s t h a n t h e 2,12 2 c a l o r i e s p e r day n e c e s s a r y f o r m i n i m a l s u b s i s t e n c e " . * ' I n summary t h e p o p u l a t i o n " i s poor, overcrowded, o f t e n hungry, and g r o w i n g - a t t h e r a t e o f 2.5 t o 3.0 p e r c e n t a year".*" " N e a r l y 80 p e r c e n t o f t h e l a n d i s made up o f t h e complex B e n g a l d e l t a system, f e d by t h e Ganges, Brahmaputra, and Meghna D e r i v e d o r i g i n a l l y from G. J a n s e n , R u r a l B a n g l a d e s h ; C o m p e t i t i o n f o r S c a r c e R e s o u r c e s . (Bergen, Norway: M i c h e l s e n I n s t i t u t e , 1983), i n E d g e r t o n (1991), Op. C i t . ; page 73. ^ D e r i v e d o r i g i n a l l y from Broadus e t a l . , " R i s i n g Sea L e v e l and Damming o f R i v e r s : P o s s i b l e E f f e c t s i n Egypt and B a n g l a d e s h " , i n E f f e c t s o f Changes i n S t r a t o s p h e r i c Ozone and C l i m a t e Change. V o l . 4, 1986. (UNEP/EPA, New Y o r k ) ; i n E d g e r t o n (1991); I b i d , page 171. r i v e r s . A g r i c u l t u r a l p r o d u c t i o n on t h e s e l a n d s makes up about 55 p e r c e n t o f t h e c o u n t r y ' s GDP" (Gross Domestic P r o d u c t ) . A p p r o x i m a t e l y 85 p e r c e n t o f t h e p e o p l e a r e dependent upon a g r i c u l t u r e f o r t h e i r l i v e l i h o o d . The h e a v i l y u t i l i z e d l a n d s a r e c u r r e n t l y p r o t e c t e d by dense f o r e s t and mangrove systems t h a t l i n e many o f t h e waterways. These f o r e s t s p r o v i d e t h e v u l n e r a b l e low-l y i n g a r a b l e l a n d w i t h p r o t e c t i o n from s t o r m surges.^' E d g e r t o n ' s r e p o r t e s t i m a t e s t h a t "a 1-meter s e a l e v e l r i s e w i l l a f f e c t a p p r o x i m a t e l y 9 p e r c e n t o f Ban g l a d e s h ' s p e o p l e , d e s t r o y about 11 p e r c e n t o f t h e n a t i o n ' s c r o p s , t h u s a f f e c t i n g n e a r l y 6 p e r c e n t o f t h e GDP. A 3-meter r i s e would be much more d e v a s t a t i n g , a f f e c t i n g 27 p e r c e n t o f t h e n a t i o n ' s p e o p l e , 27 p e r c e n t o f t h e c r o p s , and about 15 p e r c e n t o f t h e GDP. These numbers do not i n c l u d e t h e i n d i r e c t e f f e c t s o f s a l t w a t e r i n t r u s i o n i n t o t h e n a t i o n ' s f r e s h groundwater s o u r c e s ; i n t r u s i o n c o u l d e x t e n d as f a r as 480 k i l o m e t r e s i n l a n d , t h e r e b y p r o h i b i t i n g i r r i g a t i o n o f c r o p s i n t h o s e r e g i o n s " as w e l l . ' ^ Compounding t h e ad v e r s e i m p a c t s o f sea l e v e l r i s e on a g r i c u l t u r e , t h e n a t i o n ' s f i s h i n g i n d u s t r y c o u l d l o s e as w e l l . The 1.5 m i l l i o n p e o p l e who depend on f i s h i n g f o r t h e i r l i v e l i h o o d c u r r e n t l y p r o v i d e t h e n a t i o n w i t h 80 p e r c e n t o f t h e consumed a n i m a l p r o t e i n . R o u g h l y 40 p e r c e n t o f t h e n a t i o n ' s f i s h i n g c a p a c i t y i s c e n t r e d i n a r e a s l i k e l y t o be i n u n d a t e d by a 3-meter r i s e . W h i l e some f i s h i n g may be r e l o c a t e d , t h e s i g n i f i c a n t f r a c t i o n E d g e r t o n (1991), I b i d ; page 73. E d g e r t o n (1991), I b i d , page 74; from Broadus e t a l . . I b i d ; pages 177-179. t h a t depends on f r e s h w a t e r f i s h i n g may be l o s t e n t i r e l y . " Storm s u r g e s pose a n o t h e r major t h r e a t t o human l i f e i n B a n g l a d e s h . H i s t o r i c a l l y v u l n e r a b l e t o major c y c l o n i c a c t i v i t y , t h e c o u n t r y was h i t i n November 1970 by a d e v a s t a t i n g s t o r m t h a t k i l l e d upward o f 250,000 p e o p l e [and r e a c h e d 150 km i n l a n d ] A 1985 s t o r m k i l l e d 5,000. The combined e f f e c t s o f i n c r e a s e d s t o r m s u r g e s from sea l e v e l r i s e , t h e d e a t h o f p r o t e c t i v e mangrove b u f f e r zones due t o i n u n d a t i o n , and p r o j e c t e d i n c r e a s e s i n s t o r m power due t o t h e greenhouse e f f e c t m i g h t s p e l l f u r t h e r d i s a s t e r f o r t h e l o w - l y i n g areas.** As t o be e x p e c t e d , E d g e r t o n r e p o r t s t h a t " t h e n a t i o n o f B a n g l a d e s h i s n e i t h e r f i n a n c i a l l y n o r s o c i a l l y p r e p a r e d t o cope w i t h t h e p r e d i c t e d r i s e i n sea l e v e l . Such a r i s e w i l l i n c r e a s e t h e number of s t a r v i n g p e o p l e i n t h e c o u n t r y and f u r t h e r weaken i t s f i n a n c i a l p o s i t i o n i n t h e w o r l d . The consequences o f i n a c t i o n i n t h i s n a t i o n w i l l be c a t a s t r o p h i c . B o t h a c l i m a t e c o n v e n t i o n and a p r o t o c o l c o n c e r n i n g c o o p e r a t i o n and a s s i s t a n c e i n r e s p o n d i n g t o t h e e f f e c t s o f sea l e v e l r i s e and g l o b a l warming a r e v i t a l t o Bangladesh's f u t u r e . " * * ^ E d g e r t o n (1991), I b i d . ; page 74; from Broadus e t a l . . I b i d . ; page 179. ** Don H i n r i c h s e n (1990). Our Common Seas. C o a s t s i n C r i s i s . ( E a r t h s c a n P u b l i c a t i o n s L t d . ; London); page 21. NB: H i n r i c h s e n q u o t e s 300,000 ( r a t h e r t h a n 250,000) k i l l e d i n t h e 1970 s t o r m s u r g e s . ** E d g e r t o n (1991), I b i d ; page 74. E d g e r t o n (1991), I b i d ; page 74. F i g u r e 4 Bangladesh Under T h r e a t Source: UNEP Even a 50 cm sea l e v e l r i s e would i n u n d a t e l a r g e a r e a s o f Ba n g l a d e s h . A 2.0-2.5 metre r i s e would r e a c h n e a r l y t o t h e c o u n t r y ' s c a p i t a l c i t y . S o u r c e : i n M a r t i n I n c e (1990); Op. C i t . ; page 69. Bl^GKOK, THAILAND W i t h a p o p u l a t i o n o f over 5 m i l l i o n , t h e C i t y o f Bangkok i s s i t u a t e d on t h e f l o o d p l a i n o f t h e Chao Phraya R i v e r , a p p r o x i m a t e l y 25 km n o r t h o f t h e G u l f o f T h a i l a n d . "The m a j o r i t y o f t h e m e t r o p o l i t a n a r e a (about 470 km^) ex t e n d s a c r o s s a low backswamp a t an e l e v a t i o n r a n g i n g from 0.5 t o 1.5 metres above mean sea l e v e l . The a r e a r e c e i v e s c o n s i d e r a b l e r a i n f a l l d u r i n g monsoon season, a t i m e when t h e Chao Phraya R i v e r a l s o r i s e s . U n t i l now, t h e c i t y has depended on a s e r i e s o f c a n a l s f o r d r a i n a g e i n t o t h e Chao Ph r a y a R i v e r , c o n s t r u c t e d o ver t h e l a s t 200 y e a r s . " " I n h i s book. E c o l o g y and Development i n t h e T h i r d World. Gupta (1988) s t a t e s t h a t " l i k e o t h e r d e v e l o p i n g c i t i e s i n t h e T h i r d W o r l d , Bangkok s u f f e r s from problems o f water c o n t a m i n a t i o n , a i r p o l l u t i o n , and f l o o d i n g d u r i n g t h e r a i n y season. One o f t h e g r e a t e s t h a z a r d s f a c i n g t h e c i t y i s t h e e f f e c t o f s u b s i d e n c e — Bangkok i s s i n k i n g . " Gupta r e p o r t s t h a t " s i n c e t h e 1950s t h e c i t y has grown r a p i d l y , and w i t h i t t h e demand f o r w a t e r , w h i c h t o d a t e has been met t o a l a r g e e x t e n t by t h e t a p p i n g o f groundwater r e s o u r c e s . The w a t e r o r i g i n a t e s i n s e v e r a l sand and s i l t a q u i f e r s l o c a t e d w i t h i n t h e s o f t m a rine sediments i n c l u d i n g h i g h l y c o m p r e s s i b l e c l a y beds t h a t u n d e r l i e Bangkok." T h i s w a t e r i s used f o r b o t h d o m e s t i c and i n d u s t r i a l p u r p o s e s because i n d u s t r i e s f i n d i t cheaper t h a n t h e wa t e r s u p p l i e d by t h e c i t y . The p r o l i f e r a t i o n o f unchecked pumping " A. Gupta (1988) . E c o l o g y and Development i n t h e T h i r d W o r l d . ( R o u t l e d g e ; London, New Y o r k ) ; page 62. o f underground w a t e r has l e d t o a r a p i d l o w e r i n g o f t h e water t a b l e , w i t h r e s u l t i n g s a l t water i n t r u s i o n t o v a r y i n g d e g r e e s . A major problem i s ground s u b s i d e n c e w h i c h has more r e c e n t l y been c a r e f u l l y m o n i t o r e d , and found t o range up t o 14 cm p e r y e a r i n s o u t h - e a s t e r n Bangkok. Both s t r u c t u r a l damage and i n c r e a s e d f l o o d i n g has r e s u l t e d . S t r u c t u r a l damage commonly o c c u r s a t t h e j u n c t i o n between s t r e e t pavements and b u i l d i n g s . L a r g e b u i l d i n g s were b u i l t on p i l e s t h e r e b y s e t t l i n g a t l o w e r r a t e s t h a n t h e s t r e e t s . Permanent c r a c k s a l o n g t h e pavements and b u i l d i n g s have now become a c h a r a c t e r i s t i c f e a t u r e o f Bangkok's u r b a n l a n d s c a p e . As a r e s u l t t h e l a r g e r b u i l d i n g s now r e q u i r e t h e a d d i t i o n o f an e x t r a s t e p t o be i n s t a l l e d below t h e o r i g i n a l ones, s i d e w a l k s d e v e l o p c r a c k s and s c a r p s , w e l l c a s i n g s p r o t r u d e above t h e ground s u r f a c e , and w a l l s open i n t o c r a c k s l a r g e r t h a n a p e r s o n ' s arm.^* Gupta r e p o r t s t h a t w h i l e some o f Bangkok's p r o b l e m s a r e f a i r l y extreme, many o t h e r c i t i e s of t h e T h i r d World a r e s i m i l a r l y l o c a t e d on comparable s u b s t r a t u m i n c l u d i n g Mexico C i t y , C a l c u t t a , Ho-Chi-Minh C i t y , and J a k a r t a . He s t a t e s t h a t Bangkok has now imposed a Groundwater A c t i n an attempt t o p l a n and c o n t r o l t h e r a t e o f water e x t r a c t i o n from beneath t h e c i t y . ^ ^ However i t r e m a i n s t o be seen how e f f e c t i v e l y i t can be implemented, as w e l l as accommodate f u t u r e r i s e s i n sea l e v e l , and a s s o c i a t e d g l o b a l warming i m p a c t s . Gupta (1988) . I b i d . ^ Gupta (1988), I b i d . ; page 65. MANILA, & NEGROS, THE PHILIPPINES I n h i s book, Our Common Seas. (1990), Don H i n r i c h s e n r e p o r t s t h a t " M a n i l a Bay has been r i s i n g a t t h e c o n s t a n t r a t e o f two c e n t i m e t r e s a y e a r f o r t h e p a s t 15 y e a r s . S c i e n t i s t s a r e not c e r t a i n i f t h i s i s due t o s u b s i d e n c e o r t h e f a c t t h a t huge p o r t i o n s o f t h e Bay have been f i l l e d i n f o r l a n d r e c l a m a t i o n p r o j e c t s . Whatever t h e cause, i t has c i t y managers w o r r i e d because t h e c i t y o f M a n i l a , l i k e Bangkok, i s s i n k i n g " . ^ N o r t h o f M a n i l a , a l o n g t h e c o a s t , f i s h farms and r i c e f i e l d s a r e c u r r e n t l y s u f f e r i n g from s a l t w ater i n t r u s i o n i n t o t h e i r s h a l l o w groundwater s u p p l i e s . A c c o r d i n g t o R i c h a r d o B i n a , o f t h e I n t e r n a t i o n a l C e n t r e f o r L i v i n g A q u a t i c R e s o u r c e s Management (ICLARM) i n M a n i l a , t h a t w h i l e l e s s o n s have been drawn from A u s t r a l i a ' s G r e a t B a r r i e r Reef A u t h o r i t y o v e r t h i s problem, t h e c o a s t a l problems a f f l i c t i n g most T h i r d World c o u n t r i e s a r e f a r more c o m p l i c a t e d t h a n t h o s e c o n f r o n t i n g t h e G r e a t B a r r i e r Reef. B i n a b e l i e v e s i t ' s p o s s i b l e t h e " e n t i r e c o a s t a l environment o f t h i s r e g i o n c o u l d be permanently a l t e r e d t o a more s a l t y one. ... We don't know t h e consequences o f t h i s p r o c e s s . I t c o u l d be c a t a s t r o p h i c " H i n r i c h s e n r e p o r t s t h a t t h i s i s s u e i s now b e i n g t a k e n up by ^ Don H i n r i c h s e n (1990) . Our Common Seas. C o a s t s i n C r i s i s . ( E a r t h s c a n P u b l i c a t i o n s L t d . ; London); page 117. H i n r i c h s e n (1990), I b i d ; page 117. ICLARM i n c o n j u n c t i o n w i t h o t h e r Non-Governmental O r g a n i z a t i o n s (NGOs) t o m o t i v a t e l o c a l p e o p l e t o a c c e p t management p l a n s , which i s seen as fundamental t o t h e su c c e s s o f any c o a s t a l management s t r a t e g y . S i m i l a r l y , on t h e i s l a n d o f Negros, H i n r i c h s e n r e p o r t s t h a t " l o c a l communities a r e t a k i n g measures i n t o t h e i r own hands w i t h o u t government o r o t h e r o u t s i d e h e l p , t o c o n s e r v e and manage t h e i r c o a s t a l resources"*^. THE MEDITERRANEAN REGION , The p r a c t i c a l e f f e c t s o f r i s i n g sea l e v e l s on p o o r p e o p l e a r e w e l l i l l u s t r a t e d by r e f e r e n c e t o t h e v a r i e d c o u n t r i e s around t h e s h o r e s o f t h e M e d i t e r r a n e a n , which touches some r i c h c o u n t r i e s o f s o u t h e r n Europe as w e l l as p o o r e r n a t i o n s o f N o r t h A f r i c a and West A s i a . Work c a r r i e d out f o r t h e U n i t e d N a t i o n s Environment Programme on sea l e v e l r i s e i n t h e M e d i t e r r a n e a n i n d i c a t e s t h a t t h e e f f e c t s o f t h e r i s i n g sea a r e l i k e l y t o be m u l t i p l i e d by t h e impact o f i n c r e a s e d p r e c i p i t a t i o n i n t h e a r e a , ( w i t h t h e e x c e p t i o n o f N o r t h A f r i c a w h i c h c o n t i n u e s t o s u f f e r from i n c r e a s e d d r o u g h t ) , w i t h d r a m a t i c e f f e c t s f o r t h e r e g i o n . The M e d i t e r r a n e a n a r e a has a l o n g h i s t o r y o f human h a b i t a t i o n and an a l m o s t e q u a l l y l e n g t h y h i s t o r y o f b e i n g examined by a r c h a e o l o g i s t s and o t h e r s c i e n t i s t s i n t e r e s t e d i n t r a c i n g i t s human and p h y s i c a l development. As a r e s u l t , d e t a i l e d r e c o r d s o f i t s sea l e v e l t h r o u g h t i m e a r e a v a i l a b l e . These r e c o r d s r e v e a l t h a t r i s e s 2^ H i n r i c h s e n (1990), I b i d ; page 19. i n s e a l e v e l caused by t h e greenhouse e f f e c t , combined w i t h changes due t o g e o l o g i c a l movements, c o u l d r e s u l t i n sea l e v e l r i s e s o f 3-20mm a y e a r f o r t h e next f i f t y y e a r s . C o n t i n u i n g changes i n sea l e v e l s i n t h e f u t u r e " w i l l be f e l t on s h o r e l i n e s w h i c h a r e a l r e a d y s u f f e r i n g s e v e r e l y from e r o s i o n and from f l o o d i n g d u r i n g h i g h s t o r m " i n c l u d i n g t h e N i l e and I t a l y . A v a r i e t y o f human a c t i v i t i e s has h a s t e n e d t h e e r o s i o n o f l a n d a r o u n d t h e M e d i t e r r a n e a n . F o r i n s t a n c e , t h e pumping o f wat e r f o r a g r i c u l t u r a l and i n d u s t r i a l use i n c r e a s e s t h e r a t e a t whi c h t h e l a n d s u b s i d e s because, once pumped, w i l l r u n o f f t o t h e sea i n s t e a d o f b e i n g r e t u r n e d underground. A c c o r d i n g t o H i n r i c h s e n (1990), i n some a r e a s t h i s f a c t o r a l o n e i s l o w e r i n g l a n d l e v e l s by c e n t i m e t r e s a y e a r , and dams b u i l t on major r i v e r s t r a p sediment w h i c h would n o r m a l l y make i t s way t o t h e c o a s t , t h e r e b y w r e c k i n g t h e dams as w e l l as i n c r e a s i n g e r o s i o n downstream. H i n r i c h s e n b e l i e v e s t h a t i n t h e c a s e o f t h e N i l e , even 20-30cm o f sea l e v e l r i s e would be c o m p a r a t i v e l y easy t o d e a l w i t h by com p a r i s o n w i t h t h e s e changes, w h i c h a r e e x a c e r b a t e d by t h e i n c r e a s i n g use o f c o a s t a l l a n d f o r f o o d p r o d u c t i o n , h o u s i n g , and work; a h a l f a metre o f s e a l e v e l r i s e would cause s e r i o u s d i f f i c u l t i e s . * ^ ^ THE NILE, EGYPT A l t h o u g h Egypt o c c u p i e s a m i l l i o n s q u a r e k i l o m e t e r s o f l a n d , i t i s o n l y t h e 35,000 square k i l o m e t e r s (3.5%) l a n d b a s e a l o n g t h e *^  H i n r i c h s e n (1990), I b i d . ; pages 26-39. N i l e t h a t h a r b o r s t h e b u l k o f t h e p o p u l a t i o n . F o r e v e r y square k i l o m e t e r a l o n g i t s banks, a p p r o x i m a t e l y 1,400 p e o p l e l i v e , r e l y i n g p r e d o m i n a t e l y upon a g r i c u l t u r a l a c t i v i t i e s i n t h e d e l t a t o s u p p o r t t h e m s e l v e s and Egy p t ' s economy. The l a r g e p o r t c i t i e s o f A l e x a n d r i a , t o t h e west, and P o r t S a i d , t o t h e e a s t a t t h e M e d i t e r r a n e a n e n t r a n c e t o t h e Suez C a n a l ( w i t h p o p u l a t i o n s o f 3 m i l l i o n and 800,000 r e s p e c t i v e l y ) , s t r a d d l e e i t h e r s i d e o f t h e N i l e ' s m a s s i v e d e l t a . The N i l e has s u p p o r t E g y p t ' s p e o p l e f o r thou s a n d s o f y e a r s , s u s t a i n i n g t h e i r c r o p s and c a r r y i n g boat t r a f f i c . However i n t h e l a s t twenty y e a r s i t has been r e a l i z e d how c r i t i c a l a r o l e t h e N i l e R i v e r has p l a y e d i n s u s t a i n i n g t h e s h o r e l i n e s o f t h e d e l t a from r i s i n g sea l e v e l s o v e r t h e c e n t u r i e s . When t h e h i g h dam a t Aswan was c l o s e d i n 1964, about 900 k i l o m e t r e s up t h e r i v e r , sediment s u p p l y t o t h e d e l t a was c u t o f f . The combined e f f e c t s o f l o c a l t e c t o n i c s u b s i d e n c e and g l o b a l sea l e v e l r i s e c a u s ed a pronounced r e l a t i v e r i s e i n s ea l e v e l t h a t submerged many c o a s t a l a r e a s . Edgerton (1991) r e p o r t s t h a t "While t h e s u b s i d e n c e and g l o b a l sea r i s e has been o c c u r r i n g f o r t h e p a s t 7,500 y e a r s , a c o n s t a n t s u p p l y o f sediment c a r r i e d down t h e g i a n t r i v e r had b u i l t up t h e d e l t a a t a comparable r a t e , e f f e c t i v e l y n u l l i f y i n g t h e a d v e r s e e f f e c t s " . The c o n s t r u c t i o n o f t h e dam s u d d e n l y ended t h i s p r o c e s s , and today many c o a s t a l r e s i d e n t s a r e b e g i n n i n g t o f e e l t h e f u l l impact o f t h e dam.** ** D e r i v e d o r i g i n a l l y from Q u a r t e r l y Economic Review o f Egypt (London: Economist P u b l i c a t i o n s , 1985), A n n u a l Supplement. I n E d g e r t o n (1991), Op. C i t . ; page 72. E d g e r t o n r e p o r t s t h a t i f " t h e c u r r e n t t r e n d o f r e l a t i v e sea l e v e l r i s e c o n t i n u e i n Egypt, 8 t o 10 m i l l i o n may be d i s p l a c e d as f l o o d i n g w a t e r s submerge t h e i r l a n d . W i t h a 1-meter r i s e i n sea l e v e l , a p p r o x i m a t e l y 15 p e r c e n t o f t h e c o u n t r y ' s g r o s s d o m e s t i c p r o d u c t (GDP) w i l l be a f f e c t e d i n some way, and 12 t o 15 p e r c e n t o f t h e n a t i o n ' s a r a b l e l a n d w i l l be submerged", and t h a t w i t h "a 3-meter r i s e i n sea l e v e l , a p p r o x i m a t e l y 20 p e r c e n t o f t h e GDP w i l l be a f f e c t e d and 20 p e r c e n t o f t h e a r a b l e l a n d ... submerged". A l r e a d y , c o n s i d e r a b l e e r o s i o n has o c c u r r e d a l o n g t h e d e l t a i c c o a s t , and i s e x p e c t e d t o i n t e n s i f y considerably."^* E d g e r t o n s t a t e s t h a t , " C l e a r l y such changes would be c a t a s t r o p h i c f o r Egypt, d e s t r o y i n g much o f t h e c o u n t r y ' s f a r m i n g c a p a b i l i t i e s , c a u s i n g w i d e s p r e a d hunger, and s p a r k i n g mass m i g r a t i o n away from t h e f l o o d e d l a n d s . ^ Much depends upon the u l t i m a t e r a t e o f sea l e v e l r i s e , b u t we s h o u l d assume a 0.7-meter g l o b a l r i s e by t h e y e a r 2050".*' Egypt, l i k e many o t h e r c o u n t r i e s , i s l a r g e l y unprepared f o r t h i s r i s e . D e r i v e d o r i g i n a l l y from J . Broadus e t a l . , " R i s i n g Sea L e v e l and Damming o f R i v e r s : P o s s i b l e E f f e c t s i n Egypt and B a n g l a d e s h " , i n E f f e c t s o f Changes i n S t r a t o s p h e r i c Ozone and G l o b a l C l i m a t e , v o l . 4 (New York: UNEP/EPA, 1986), pp. 165-190) i n E d g e r t o n (1991), I b i d . ; page 72. D a v i d S u z u k i , "The Changing C l i m a t e " , The N a t u r e o f T h i n g s ( T e l e v i s i o n program, March, 1992) a l s o d i s c u s s e d E gypt's p r o b l e m s i n t h i s r e g a r d . S u z u k i i n t e r v i e w e d f a r m e r s who s t a t e d t h a t c l i m a t e changes i n t h e l a s t few y e a r s have s i g n i f i c a n t l y a l t e r e d t h e i r h i s t o r i c a l c a l e n d a r by which t h e y have always p l a n t e d t h e i r c r o p s . Now, y e a r a f t e r y e a r , t h e y f a c e poor c r o p h a r v e s t s . *' E d g e r t o n (1991), Op. C i t . ; page 72, c) Island Communities: THE SOUTH PACIFIC ISLANDS There a r e t h r e e d i s t i n c t p a r t s t o t h e South P a c i f i c — M i c r o n e s i a , M e l a n e s i a , and P o l y n e s i a c o v e r i n g an ocean a r e a o f about 41 m i l l i o n s q u a r e k i l o m e t r e s t a k i n g i n t w e n t y - f i v e c o u n t r i e s . D i s r e g a r d i n g A u s t r a l i a and New Zealan d , o n l y 2 p e r c e n t o f t h e a r e a i s l a n d , w i t h o n l y seven o f t h e i s l a n d s o v e r 1000 s q u a r e k i l o m e t r e s i n s i z e . * * Dr. John P e r n e t t a , A s s o c i a t e P r o f e s s o r o f V e r t e b r a t e B i o l o g y a t t h e U n i v e r s i t y o f Papua New Gu i n e a , r e p o r t s t h a t ... t h e p i c t u r e p o s t c a r d image o f t h e South P a c i f i c i s , i n many p l a c e s , f a l s e . B e h i n d t h e f a c a d e o f palm t r e e s w a v i n g g e n t l y i n t h e b r e e z e i s t h e s t a r k r e a l i t y o f g r i n d i n g p o v e r t y s e t a g a i n s t a backdrop o f some r e a l l y b a s i c e n v i r o n m e n t a l problems. F o r many P a c i f i c I s l a n d s o c i e t i e s , w h i c h had e v o l v e d p r a c t i c a l and s u s t a i n a b l e ways t o r e a l i z e t h e i r r e s o u r c e s . Western s t y l e development p r o v e d t h e i r d o w n f a l l . * ' I n h i s book. Our Common Seas. C o a s t s i n C r i s i s H i n r i c h s e n (1990), r e p o r t s t h a t i n t h e s t r u g g l e t o modernize t h e i r economies r e s o u r c e i s s u e s a r e , i n c r e d i b l y , o f t e n n e g l e c t e d . The i s l a n d n a t i o n s depend p r e d o m i n a t e l y upon f i s h i n g , r a t h e r t h a n a g r i c u l t u r e o r i n d u s t r y , t o s u s t a i n t h e m s e l v e s . Any a g r i c u l t u r e t h a t i s c a r r i e d on, as i n F i j i , i s done a t low a l t i t u d e above s e a l e v e l , e s p e c i a l l y i n r i v e r d e l t a a r e a s . However, t h e s e a r e a s a r e a l s o a f f e c t e d by r i s i n g s e a l e v e l s due t o s e d i m e n t a t i o n and i n c r e a s e d ** M a r t i n I n c e (1990), Op. C i t . page 105, o r i g i n a l s o u r c e , t h e A s s o c i a t i o n o f South P a c i f i c E n v i r o n m e n t a l I n s t i t u t e ; P o r t Moresby, Papua New Guinea. *' H i n r i c h s e n (1990), Op. c i t . ; page 63. r i v e r flooding.™ A c c o r d i n g t o a r e c e n t a r t i c l e i n E c o d e c i s i o n p Leatherman s t a t e s t h a t problems o f s a l t w a t e r i n t r u s i o n i n t o t h e grou n d w a t e r s u p p l y i s a l r e a d y o c c u r r i n g i n t h e M a r s h a l l I s l a n d s , and t h a t i n some s m a l l a t o l l s , " t h e l e n s o f f r e s h w a t e r l y i n g above t h e s a l t w a t e r i s now [ i n 1994] o n l y two c e n t i m e t e r s deep".'' Figure 5 Islands of the Trop i c a l South P a c i f i c Commonwealth of th« _ . Northern Mariana «S"'"* Islands Marshall Islands Islands of the Tropical South Pacific Federated States of Micronésie Palau (Belaul Nauru ' .>fapua Islands "^Kiribati-Tokolau Tuvalu* Equator Vanatu.! *1 . Wallis 6 • AmeriMn Futuna•W»!!!'^.Samoa éook . Samoa islands New • FijioC;-y.: Caledonia \ " '•' -NJue French Polynesia "•. •; Tongs AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND 0 1000 2000 Kilometres 1 I I Source: Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Wellington, NZ S o u r c e : I n M a r t i n I n c e (1990), Op. C i t . ; page 104. I n terms o f b o t h sea l e v e l r i s e and o t h e r a s s o c i a t e d g l o b a l warming e f f e c t s , t h e impacts and problems a r e as d i v e r s e as t h e i s l a n d s t h e m s e l v e s . Most o f t h e South P a c i f i c ' s 5 m i l l i o n p e o p l e 70 H i n r i c h s e n (1990), I b i d ; page 64. ''^  Stephen P. Leatherman " R i s i n g Sea L e v e l s and S m a l l I s l a n d S t a t e s " i n E c o d e c i s i o n . V o l . 11 J a n u a r y , 1994; page 54. a r e c o a s t a l r e s i d e n t s . Many of t h e i s l a n d s a r e r e a l l y c o r a l a t o l l s , i n c l u d i n g K i r i b a t i , T o k e l a u and T u v a l u e — a r e a s most v u l n e r a b l e t o sea l e v e l r i s e . I n l a r g e r i s l a n d s , l i k e Papua New G u i n e a , t h e u r b a n and c o a s t a l p o p u l a t i o n s a r e g r o w i n g more r a p i d l y t h a n t h o s e i n t h e f o r e s t e d u p l a n d s . U r b a n i z a t i o n i s a t r e n d t h e P a c i f i c I s l a n d s s h a r e w i t h v i r t u a l l y e v e r y r e g i o n o f t h e w o r l d . However, t h e s e s m a l l i s l a n d s , w i t h l i m i t e d space and r e s o u r c e s , can l e a s t a f f o r d t h e damaging e f f e c t s o f crowded c o a s t s and r i s i n g sea l e v e l s . O v e r c r o w d i n g has a l r e a d y r e s u l t e d i n o u t - m i g r a t i o n t o o t h e r P a c i f i c Rim n a t i o n s , p r e d o m i n a t e l y t o A u s t r a l i a and New Zealand-A 1-2 meter r i s e i n sea l e v e l would r e s u l t i n T u v a l u , K i r i b a t i and t h e M a r s h a l l I s l a n d s b e i n g swamped o r under w a t e r , t h e i r p o p u l a t i o n s f o r c e d t o move t o h i g h e r , d r y e r i s l a n d s o r t o t h e m a i n l a n d c o u n t r i e s . R i s i n g seas would f l o o d o v e r a q u a r t e r of Papua New G u i n e a ' s 17,000km c o a s t l i n e , i n u n d a t i n g f l o o d p l a i n s and r i v e r d e l t a s . A 1-meter r i s e would l e a d t o s a l t w a t e r i n t r u s i o n s i n t o w a t e r t a b l e s , as w e l l as t h e w a t e r l o g g i n g o f s o i l s , and m a s s i v e c o a s t a l e r o s i o n . I n sum, a l l p r i n c i p a l towns and c e n t r e s o f government w o u l d be i n u n d a t e d , f o r c i n g r e l o c a t i o n o f a l l i n d u s t r y , commerce, and government a c t i v i t i e s . I n a r e a s w h i c h s u r v i v e r i s i n g s e a l e v e l s , r e m a i n i n g communities would be h i t by e x a c e r b a t e d w e a t her e f f e c t s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h g l o b a l warming, i n p a r t i c u l a r t h e i n c i d e n c e o f s e v e r e storms becoming even more f r e q u e n t as t h e E a r t h ' s atmosphere becomes warmer and more h u m i d . A c c o r d i n g t o M a r t i n I n c e (1990), Op. c i t . ; page 105. I n c e , t h e "most p r o b a b l e o v e r a l l e f f e c t i s an i n c r e a s e i n c y c l o n i c weather n e a r t h e Solomon I s l a n d s , Papua New Guinea and even New Ze a l a n d i t s e l f " . Up t h e b r i g h t s i d e , t h o s e a r e a s w h i c h c u r r e n t l y s u f f e r from t h i s t y p e o f weather, l i k e F i j i and Tonga, may b e n e f i t s i g n i f i c a n t l y from t h e new weather p a t t e r n s as st o r m p a t t e r n s s h i f t elsewhere.'^ THE MALDIVES, EAST INDIAN OCEAN The R e p u b l i c o f t h e M a l d i v e s l i e s south-west o f I n d i a i n t h e I n d i a n Ocean, and i s c o m p r i s e d o f a p p r o x i m a t e l y 1,300 i s l a n d s , w i t h a bout 275 i n h a b i t e d and al m o s t a l l o f w h i c h a r e us e d e c o n o m i c a l l y f o r f o r e s t r y o r o t h e r p u r p o s e s . I t s p o p u l a t i o n o f about 180,000 (1985) i s c o n c e n t r a t e d on t w e n t y - f i v e o f t h e s e i s l a n d s , i n c l u d i n g 46,000 on t h e main i s l a n d o f Male.'" A c c o r d i n g t o I n c e (1990) , t h e R e p u b l i c o f t h e M a l d i v e s has "an o b s e s s i v e i n t e r e s t " i n r i s i n g s e a l e v e l , s i n c e i t s h i g h e s t p o i n t i s l i t t l e more t h a n t h r e e metres above p r e s e n t - d a y s e a l e v e l . A r e c e n t s t u d y u n d e r t a k e n f o r t h e Commonwealth S e c r e t a r i a t r e v e a l e d t h a t v i r t u a l l y t h e whole o f t h e c o u n t r y ' s p o p u l a t i o n , i n f r a s t r u c t u r e and economy l i e s between 80cm and 2m above sea l e v e l . ' ^ S p e a k i n g a t a Commonwealth m e e t i n g i n K u a l a Lumpur, M a l a y s i a (1989) t h e P r e s i d e n t I n c e (1990) , I b i d . ; page 106. ^ I n c e (1990), I b i d . ; page 32. '^  A l a s d a i r Edwards, o f t h e U n i v e r s i t y o f N e w c a s t l e upon Tyne i n t h e UK, completed t h e s t u d y f o r t h e Commonwealth S e c r e t a r i a t . I n M a r t i n I n c e , (1990) The R i s i n g Seas; page 32. o f t h e M a l d i v e s , Mr. Maumoon Abd u l Gayoom, s t a t e d t h a t i f t h e sea l e v e l r o s e as p r e d i c t e d by one meter by 2 050, many c o u n t r i e s i n t h e Commonwealth would " s i m p l y d i s a p p e a r " . W i t h most o f h i s n a t i o n ' s i s l a n d s no more t h a n two meters above sea l e v e l , t h e M a l d i v e s i s , i n Gayoom's words, "an endangered c o u n t r y " . Thus, t h e governments o f t h e S o u t h P a c i f i c n a t i o n s have t a k e n a l e a d i n g r o l e i n p r o m o t i n g w o r l d c o n c e r n about sea l e v e l r i s e , e s p e c i a l l y t h o s e w i t h i n t h e Commonwealth.'* THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS L i k e many o f t h e South P a c i f i c I s l a n d s , H a w a i i i s b u i l t upon v o l c a n i c r o c k , w i t h l i m i t e d f r e s h water r e s o u r c e s , and r e s t r i c t e d d e v e l o p a b l e l a n d . The i s l a n d p o p u l a t i o n s a r e c o n c e n t r a t e d p r e d o m i n a t e l y around t h e v o l c a n i c p e r i m e t e r s o f t h e i s l a n d s . T o u r i s m — b o t h l u x u r y c o a s t a l r e s o r t s and e c o - t o u r i s m , forms t h e m a i n s t a y o f t h e economy, f o l l o w e d by p l a n t a t i o n s t y l e a g r i c u l t u r e . T here i s no i n d u s t r y whatsoever on t h e i s l a n d s . I n E d g e r t on's book. The R i s i n g T i d e , G l o b a l Warming and World Sea L e v e l s , (1991) she r e p o r t s t h e f o l l o w i n g a n t i c i p a t e d i m p a c t s o f sea l e v e l r i s e f o r H a w a i i ' s main c i t y , H o n o l u l u , o v e r t h e n e x t 100 y e a r s . " * A 0.6-meter sea l e v e l r i s e would have t h e f o l l o w i n g e f f e c t s : major f l o o d i n g t h r e a t s d u r i n g s t o r m c o n d i t i o n s ; loss of Waikiki Beach; i n c r e a s e d l o s s e s o f p r o p e r t y t o s t o r m waves; i n c r e a s e d c o s t o f s h o r e l i n e p r o t e c t i o n ; and '* I n c e (1990), Op. C i t ; pages 33-34; and H i n r i c h s e n (1990), Op. C i t ; page 20. " T h i s s e c t i o n i s based on t h e f o l l o w i n g s t u d y : E f f e c t s on H a w a i i o f a Worldwide R i s e i n Sea L e v e l Induced by t h e "Greenhouse E f f e c t " ( H o n o l u l u : H a w a i i C o a s t a l Zone Management Program, 1985). temporary d i s r u p t i o n s o f t r a n s p o r t a t i o n a t H o n o l u l u Harbour, i n t e r n a t i o n a l a i r p o r t , and t h r e e major s u r f a c e t h o r o u g h f a r e s . * A 1.5-meter r i s e would l e a d t o t h e f o l l o w i n g r e s u l t s : c o a s t a l h a z a r d s t h r e a t e n i n g s h o r e f r o n t a r e a s , as w e l l as properties up to a mile inland; a t a minimum t h e enormous, i f n o t p r o h i b i t i v e , cost of s t a b i l i s i n g the e n t i r e Honolulu waterfront; l o s s o f v a l u a b l e u r b an l a n d ; geographic i s o l a t i o n of Waikiki; and p r o l o n g e d d i s r u p t i o n o f s u r f a c e , a i r , and m a r i t i m e t r a n s p o r t a t i o n systems. Moreover, much o f t h e p r e s e n t urban d i s t r i c t may become u n i n h a b i t a b l e . E d g e r t o n f u r t h e r r e p o r t s H a w a i i ' s groundwater would a l s o be a f f e c t e d by s a l t w a t e r i n t r u s i o n i n t o groundwater a q u i f e r s , r e s u l t i n g i n a s m a l l e r s u p p l y o f u s a b l e groundwater.'* Figure 6 Measurements of Carbon Dioxide Concentrations In the A i r From Mauna Loa, Hawaii 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 Source: UNEP Source: I n c e (1990); Op. C i t . ; page 9. i i i ) Repercussions As t h e s e p r o f i l e s have i l l u s t r a t e d , i n c o n j u n c t i o n w i t h a f o r e m e n t i o n e d i n c r e a s e s i n e x p e c t e d l e v e l s o f b o t h p o p u l a t i o n and u r b a n i z a t i o n t r e n d s — p a r t i c u l a r l y i n v u l n e r a b l e c o a s t a l a r e a s , a c t i o n needs t o be s t a r t e d now t o a v o i d w o r s t - c a s e s c e n a r i o s . As E d g e r t o n (1991), Op. C i t . ; page 43. E d g e r t o n p o i n t s o u t , many o f t h e c o u n t r i e s c u r r e n t l y w i t h o u t p l a n s t o combat s e a l e v e l r i s e " w i l l e x p e r i e n c e s e v e r e e f f e c t s from even a moderate r i s e [ i n sea l e v e l s ] " , e s p e c i a l l y Egypt and Bangladesh.'' Impacts from sea l e v e l r i s e a r e a l r e a d y b e i n g f e l t i n t h e N i l e , t h e M e d i t e r r a n e a n , and t h e South A m e r i c a n and South P a c i f i c r e g i o n s . Temporary c l i m a t e changes e x p e r i e n c e d i n 1982-3 a l o n g t h e w e s t e r n c o a s t o f South America r e s u l t e d i n a r e l a t i v e sea l e v e l r i s e a l o n g t h e we s t e r n c o a s t o f South A m e r i c a , c r e a t i n g an E l N i n o e f f e c t w i p i n g out annual anchovy harvests.*° A c c o r d i n g t o I n c e ( 1 9 9 0 ) , i m p a c t s w i l l v a r y among d i f f e r e n t r e g i o n s as a r e s u l t of " t h e sum [ t o t a l ] o f e f f e c t s o f g l o b a l sea l e v e l r i s e combined w i t h v e r t i c a l l a n d motions due t o t e c t o n i c s , g l a c i a l l o a d i n g , o r f l u i d w i t h d r a w a l (gas, o i l , w a t e r ) " . " Impacts o f r e l a t i v e sea l e v e l changes a r e t h e r e f o r e l o c a l i n n a t u r e , i n f l u e n c e d by t r a n s i e n t c l i m a t e phenomena, c o n t i n e n t a l u p l i f t , and s u b s i d e n c e f a c t o r s , among o t h e r phenomena. Fo r r e g i o n s l i k e t h e C a r i b b e a n and t h e South P a c i f i c i s l a n d n a t i o n s , who have a s h o r t e r and l e s s i n t e n s i v e p e r i o d o f i n d u s t r i a l d evelopment, i m p a c t s w i l l d i f f e r from m a i n l a n d c o a s t a l c e n t r e s . However t h e i m p a c t s w i l l be e q u a l l y d r a m a t i c , some w i t h some i s l a n d c o m m u n i t i e s v a n i s h i n g a l t o g e t h e r . A c c o r d i n g t o I n c e (1990), t h e '' E d g e r t o n (1991), I b i d ; page 72. *° P.W. G l y n n , "Widespread C o r a l M o r t a l i t y and t h e 1982-83 E l N i n o Warming Event", E n v i r o n m e n t a l C o n s e r v a t i o n 11(2) (1988): 133-146 i n I n c e (1990), Op. C i t . ; page 18. I n c e (1990), I b i d . ; page 18. • • ^ • . .57 r e m a i n i n g i s l a n d n a t i o n s w i l l emerge as a r e a s much l i k e o t h e r T h i r d W o rld p l a c e s — f u l l o f economic p o t e n t i a l which w i l l be h a r d t o a c h i e v e f o r any number o f r e a s o n s , and made c r i t i c a l l y more d i f f i c u l t by t h e r i s i n g s e a . The p i c t u r e o f d i s a d v a n t a g e d n a t i o n s and p e o p l e b e i n g harmed f u r t h e r by sea l e v e l r i s e s caused by t h e d e v e l o p e d w o r l d ' s a i r p o l l u t i o n h a b i t s p r e s e n t s p o l i c y makers w i t h t h e s t a r k e s t p o s s i b l e m o r a l i s s u e s — o r should.*^ As s t a t e d e a r l i e r i n Chapter One, t h e p o i n t o f t h i s paper has n o t been t o d i s c u s s t h e v a r i o u s arguments (and degrees t h e r e o f ) o v e r when, o r by how much, c l i m a t e change w i l l o c c u r . I t i s t a k e n as a f a c t t h a t c l i m a t e change i s i n d e e d o c c u r r i n g , and t h a t a s i g n i f i c a n t p e r c e n t a g e of t h e w o r l d ' s p o p u l a t i o n , i t s u r b an c e n t r e s , and r e s o u r c e s a r e a t r i s k . I t i s a l m o s t i r r e l e v a n t t o d i s c u s s "when" o r "by how much" t h e s e h a b i t a t s a r e a t r i s k . Does i t m a t t e r ? I n l i g h t o f many of t h e i r p r e s e n t economic and p o l i t i c a l r e a l i t i e s , many communities a r e a l r e a d y s u f f e r i n g from a l a c k o f adequate s h e l t e r , urban s e r v i c e s , employment, a c c e s s t o s u i t a b l e l a n d , and v a r i o u s human r i g h t s v i o l a t i o n s . T h e r e f o r e , d e l a y i n t h e d i s c u s s i o n , d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g , o r p l a n n i n g t o accommodate f u r t h e r e n v i r o n m e n t a l d e g r a d a t i o n may l e a d t o p o l i t i c a l a n a r c h y and f u t u r e s o c i a l u n r e s t . W h i l e t h e c a s e s t u d i e s have a l r e a d y e s t a b l i s h e d t h e f a c t t h a t t h e e f f e c t o f r i s i n g sea l e v e l s on T h i r d World c i t i e s w i l l d i f f e r i n d e t a i l from case t o c a s e , I n c e f u r t h e r a r g u e s t h a t " t h e e x t e n s i v e l i t e r a t u r e on q u i c k and slow d i s a s t e r s i n t h e T h i r d World s u g g e s t s s t r o n g l y t h a t t h e e f f e c t s w i l l m a i n l y i n v o l v e i m p o v e r i s h i n g and endangering t h e p e o p l e l e a s t a b l e t o cope".*^ I n 1979, an i n t e r d i s c i p l i n a r y r e s e a r c h team o r g a n i z e d by t h e American A s s o c i a t i o n o f A t m o s p h e r i c S c i e n c e s s t r e s s e d t h e need t o u n d e r s t a n d , i n advance, t h e p o s s i b l e range o f i m p a c t s o f COj induced changes on human a c t i v i t i e s and w e l f a r e , as w e l l as t h e a b i l i t y o f s o c i e t y t o d e a l w i t h such impacts (Chen, 198 3 ) D e s p i t e t h e a b i l i t y o f many o f t h e d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s t o r e s p o n d t o a t m o s p h e r i c change, t h e r e a l s o remains t h e more o v e r r i d i n g c o n c e r n o f " w i l l i n g n e s s " , i n o t h e r words, p o l i t i c a l w i l l . The 1979 s t u d y a l s o r e v e a l e d , among a m u l t i t u d e o f more r e c e n t ones, t h e " l o n g -t e r m , s l o w l y d e v e l o p i n g and i r r e v e r s i b l e a s p e c t s " o f a t m o s p h e r i c change, and " u n d e r s c o r e d t h e importance o f v i e w i n g t h e problem i n t h e g e n e r a l c o n t e x t o f o t h e r s o c i e t a l problems and r a p i d s o c i e t a l change".** I n h i s book. The R i s i n g Seas (1990), M a r t i n I n c e p o i n t s o u t t h a t t h e problem f o r governments and p l a n n e r s , among o t h e r s , ... i s t h e immense range of t h e e x p e c t e d r i s e [ i n sea l e v e l ] . A t t h e lower f i g u r e , cheap measures w i l l a l l o w I n c e (1990) , Op. C i t . ; page 63. AAAS P a n e l R e p o r t , DOE document and Workshop on E n v i r o n m e n t a l and S o c i e t a l Consequences o f a P o s s i b l e CO^-Induced C l i m a t e Change (1980) i n R o b e r t S. Chen, e t a l . ( 1 9 8 3 ) , S o c i a l S c i e n c e R e s e a r c h and C l i m a t e Change. ( R e i d e l P u b l i s h i n g Company; D o r d r e c h t , B o s t o n ) ; P r e f a c e . ** R o b e r t S. Chen (1983) , S o c i a l S c i e n c e R e s e r a c h and C l i m a t e Change. R o b e r t S. Chen, E l i s e B o u l d i n g , and Stephen H. S c h n e i d e r , E d i t o r s (D. R e i d e l P u b l i s h i n g Company; D o r d r e c h t , B o s t o n ) ; P r e f a c e . e x t e n s i v e a r e a s t o be p r o t e c t e d . A t t h e upper l i m i t , a r e a s o f l a n d which have h e l d human p o p u l a t i o n s f o r m i l l e n n i a a r e a l l but c e r t a i n t o v a n i s h . ... The message a p p l i e s e q u a l l y i n o t h e r p a r t s o f t h e T h i r d World s u b j e c t t o r a p i d g e o l o g i c a l change, e s p e c i a l l y around t h e P a c i f i c , i n t h e West I n d i e s and i n c o u n t r i e s l i k e Indonesia.** The p r i n c i p a l e f f e c t s t h e n , o f sea l e v e l r i s e and c l i m a t e change t o urban human s e t t l e m e n t s a r e d i s c u s s e d below as t h e y impact a) urban i n f r a s t r u c t u r e , and b) economic systems, as f o l l o w s : a) Urban Infrastructure - » Highways, b r i d g e s , waterways, p o r t s , a i r p o r t s , mass t r a n s i t systems, f a c i l i t i e s f o r water s u p p l y and hazardous waste s t o r a g e , and a s s o c i a t e d maintenance systems-A c c o r d i n g t o E d g e r t o n (1991), a r i s e o f 0.7 meters, c o u p l e d w i t h o t h e r e f f e c t s o f c l i m a t e changes, w i l l p l a c e urban i n f r a s t r u c t u r e under tremendous s t r a i n . I n t h e d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s much o f t h e c u r r e n t f u n d i n g t o b u i l d t h i s i n f r a s t r u c t u r e comes from v a r i o u s f o r e i g n a i d programmes, w h i l e l o c a l governments a r e , f o r t h e most p a r t , u n a b l e t o c o l l e c t t h e r e q u i r e d revenues needed t o pay f o r maintenance o f them. T h e r e f o r e , from a p l a n n i n g and f i n a n c i n g p e r s p e c t i v e , t h e impact o f e n v i r o n m e n t a l damages t o urban i n f r a s t r u c t u r e i s overwhelming. Damage from sea l e v e l r i s e w i l l r e s u l t i n s i g n i f i c a n t i n f r a s t r u c t u r e damage, and huge f i n a n c i a l burdens t o r e p a i r and/or r e p l a c e . I n c r e a s e d s a l i n i t y and h i g h e r water t a b l e s i n g e n e r a l w i l l a l s o g e n e r a t e a wide range o f problems f o r c i t y i n f r a s t r u c t u r e . S a l t w a t e r i n t r u s i o n i n t o d omestic and i n d u s t r i a l w a t e r s u p p l i e s w i l l r e n d e r t h e groundwater u n s u i t a b l e , and i t w i l l c o r r o d e u n d e r g r o u n d c a b l e s and pipework a t a f a s t e r r a t e t h a n t h a t o f f r e s h w a t e r . H i g h e r water t a b l e s w i l l a f f e c t b u i l d i n g f o u n d a t i o n s , l e a d t o s u b s i d e n c e and cause f u r t h e r s h i f t i n g o f f o u n d a t i o n s , r e s u l t i n g i n s i g n i f i c a n t c r a c k i n g t h r o u g h o u t t h e b u i l d i n g s . B u s i n e s s e s and government b u i l d i n g s w i l l c o n t i n u a l l y f a c e d i s r u p t i o n and i n c r e a s e d maintenance and/or r e l o c a t i o n c o s t s . Figure 7 Three Ways In Which S a l t Water Can Intrude Into A Freshwater Lens Ocean Source; Commonwealth Secretariat S o u r c e : I n c e (1990) The R i s i n g Seas ( E a r t h s c a n P u b l i c a t i o n s L t d . ; London); page 53. I n Bangkok, s u b s i d e n c e from t h e b l o c k i n g o f underground c a n a l c h a n n e l s has a l r e a d y l e d t o s u b s i d e n c e , damage t o b u i l d i n g s , and w a t e r i n t r u s i o n i n t o b u i l d i n g s from r e g u l a r f l o o d i n g . Some b u s i n e s s e s t h e r e have i n s t a l l e d p h y s i c a l b a r r i e r s t o b l o c k out w a t e r seepage.*' I n a d d i t i o n r e d u c e d u s e - a b i l i t y o f l a n d i n some c i t y a r e a s w i l l d r i v e up t h e p r i c e o f a l t e r n a t i v e p r o p e r t i e s , p r o v i d e d t h e r e e x i s t s o t h e r l a n d o p t i o n s i n t h e f i r s t p l a c e . b) Economic Systems -L o s s o f n a t i o n a l and l o c a l r evenues from r e d u c t i o n or d e s t r u c t i o n o f t r a d i t i o n a l l i v e l i h o o d s i n f i s h e r i e s , f a r m i n g , and t o u r i s m ; l o s s o f o t h e r n a t u r a l r e s o u r c e s ( i . e . f o r e s t s ) ; i n c r e a s e d o p e r a t i o n and maintenance c o s t s ; r e d u c e d c o m p e t i t i v e a b i l i t i e s i n g l o b a l market p l a c e ; i n t e r f e r e n c e i n t h e m u l t i p l i e r e f f e c t s n o r m a l l y g e n e r a t e d from l o c a l economies; i n c r e a s e d l a n d p r i c e s ; r e b u i l d i n g and/or r e l o c a t i o n c o s t s ; e t c . O b v i o u s l y , an a t t a c k on t h e l o c a l economies o f t h e l e s s d eveloped c o u n t r i e s r e p r e s e n t s an a t t a c k on t h e i r n a t i o n a l and l o c a l economies, as w e l l as a f f e c t i n g o t h e r economies around t h e w o r l d . S o u r c e s o f revenue w h i c h s u p p o r t consumer markets and s o c i a l s e r v i c e s a r e a f f e c t e d by b o t h c l i m a t e change and sea l e v e l r i s e . A c c o r d i n g t o S c h n e i d e r (1983), between 5000 t o 8000 y e a r s ago, e v i d e n c e s u g g e s t s t h a t mean g l o b a l t e m p e r a t u r e s were perhaps 1-2 degrees C e l s i u s warmer t h a n t o d a y ... [ t h e r e f o r e t h e ] important message i s that seemingly small changes i n global temperature can be r e f l e c t e d by large, regional changes i n temperature and p r e c i p i t a t i o n patterns. ... W h i l e such a l t e r a t i o n s a r e n o t n e c e s s a r i l y bad, depending upon t h e n a t u r e o f economic a c t i v i t i e s i n each r e g i o n when t h e c l i m a t e changes, t h e i m p o r t a n t p o i n t i s t h a t we w i l l have t o *' A v i j i t Gupta (1988) E c o l o g y and Development i n t h e T h i r d W o r l d . ( R o u t l e d g e ; London, New Y o r k ) ; page 63. l e a r n t o adapt - o r migrate.** [Emphasis added] I n c e (1990) has suggested " i t may be p o s s i b l e o v e r a p e r i o d of decades t o s o l v e t h e s e problems by a w e l l - d e s i g n e d programme i n w h i c h key a c t i v i t i e s l i k e government a r e s h i f t e d t o new l o c a t i o n s away from sea l e v e l r i s e problems".*' I n c e b e l i e v e s such a programme would s e r v e t o encourage o t h e r major e m p l o y e r s t o f o l l o w s u i t , t h e r e b y p r o t e c t i n g economies and s e r v i c e s a t r i s k by "the s p r e a d i n g o f employment and w e a l t h more w i d e l y " from t h e few e x i s t i n g c o r e economic c e n t r e s . However, t h i s seems h i g h l y u n l i k e l y s i n c e t h e s e c e n t r e s have a g g l o m e r a t e d and emerged as economic m u l t i p l i e r s f o r reasons s p e c i f i c t o t h e i r l o c a l e based on e x i s t i n g r e s o u r c e s , s k i l l e d l a b o u r , and v a r i o u s o t h e r i n s t i t u t i o n a l s u p p o r t s y s t e m s ; o t h e r w i s e , w e a l t h and employment w o u l d a l r e a d y be more w i d e l y dispersed.'° F u r t h e r e x a c e r b a t i n g t h e s e main urban i m p a c t s w o u l d be f u r t h e r i m p a c t s upon urban s h e l t e r and s e r v i c e s as r u r a l f a r m e r s abandon f a r m i n g a r e a s a f f e c t e d by s a l i n i z a t i o n and f l o o d i n g , r e l o c a t i n g t o t h e a l r e a d y s e a - t h r e a t e n e d c i t i e s , p l a c i n g g r e a t e r demands on urban ** Stephen H. S c h n e i d e r "CO2, C l i m a t e and S o c i e t y " i n R o b e r t S. Chen, e t . a l . E d i t o r s (1983) S o c i a l S c i e n c e R e s e a r c h and C l i m a t e Change. (D. R e i d e l P u b l i s h i n g Company; D o r d r e c h t , B o s t o n ) ; page 9. ^ I n c e (1990), Op. C i t . ; page 64. ^ F o r a e x c e l l e n t d i s c u s s i o n o f how and why some c i t i e s g e n e r a t e w e a l t h w h i l e o t h e r s f a i l , see Jane J a c o b s (1985), C i t i e s and t h e W e a l t h N a t i o n s . ( V i n t a g e Books, Random House; New Y o r k ) . r e s o u r c e s and employment o p p o r t u n i t i e s , t h e r e b y h e i g h t e n i n g p o l i t i c a l i s s u e s o f l a n d l e s s n e s s , unemployment and e q u i t y . A c c o r d i n g t o I n c e , t h e s e Abandoned l a n d s w i l l become " f l o o d g h e t t o s " , and " i n v o l v e a c o n f r o n t a t i o n w i t h t h e T h i r d World's problems of l a n d l e s s n e s s and t h e unequal d i s t r i b u t i o n o f l a n d . Even more t h a n d e v e l o p e d w o r l d c i t i e s , t h o s e i n t h e T h i r d W o r l d t e n d t o grow i n a s p r a w l i n g and i l l - p l a n n e d manner. F o r t h e i r p o o r e s t i n h a b i t a n t s t h e main c r i t e r i o n i s t h e a v a i l a b i l i t y o f l a n d , however u n s u i t a b l e , and l o s i n g p a r t o f a c i t y t o r i s i n g sea l e v e l s w i l l s i m p l y mean p u s h i n g such i n h a b i t a n t s i n t o even l e s s s u i t a b l e p l a c e s . The p roblem h e r e i s i n e q u a l i t y , not r i s i n g sea l e v e l s , b u t i t i s e x a c e r b a t e d by t h e sea l e v e l r i s e i s s u e , " I f t h i s a n a l y s i s i s c o r r e c t , a t t h e extreme end o f t h i n g s n a t i o n a l s e c u r i t y becomes an i s s u e , t h r e a t e n i n g t o d i s r u p t tenuous h o l d s on p o l i t i c a l c o n t r o l and c i v i l obedience,'^ F u r t h e r m o r e , s h o u l d I n c e ' s t h e o r y o f " f l o o d g h e t t o s " become a r e a l i t y , a l l t h e p r o g r e s s t o d a t e i n a r e a s of h e a l t h and w e l f a r e would be l o s t o r s e v e r e l y t a x e d , and p o p u l a t i o n c o n t r o l would t a k e on a whole new, and u g l y , d i m e n s i o n . As s t a t e d e a r l i e r , whether one p e r c e i v e s c l i m a t e change and t h e impact o f sea l e v e l r i s e as a " c r i s i s " o r n o t depends w h o l l y upon whether one i s r i c h o r poor. The problems which r i c h c o u n t r i e s w i t h major c a p i t a l i n v e s t m e n t s and w e a l t h y c i t i e s i n c o a s t a l a r e a s f a c e from sea l e v e l r i s e a r e q u i t e d i f f e r e n t from t h o s e o f poor c o u n t r i e s whose l a n d i s m o s t l y used f o r s u b s i s t e n c e a g r i c u l t u r e , o r f o r c i t i e s where a s u b s t a n t i a l p a r t o f t h e p o p u l a t i o n l i v e s i n p o v e r t y . F o r t h e r i c h , s e a l e v e l r i s e means t h e r i s k o f economic l o s s and d i s r u p t i o n , but '1 I n c e (1990), Op, C i t . ; pages 63-64, ^ The 1979 AAAS s t u d y a l s o r e c o g n i z e d t h e p o t e n t i a l l i n k o f c l i m a t e change impa c t s and n u c l e a r war and n a t i o n a l s e c u r i t y . I n Chen, B o u l d i n g , e t a l . (1983), op. c i t . i n t h e T h i r d World t h e r i s k t o many p e o p l e i s o f d e a t h r a t h e r t h a n bankruptcy.'^ Thus, t h e i m p a c t o f c l i m a t e change, i n p a r t i c u l a r s e a l e v e l r i s e , must be c o n s i d e r e d i n development s t r a t e g i e s i n t h e p r o v i s i o n of s h e l t e r and s e r v i c e s as a fundamental component o f s u s t a i n a b l e development. The f o l l o w i n g r e p r e s e n t s a p a r t i a l c o m p i l a t i o n o f p o t e n t i a l i m p a c t s as a r e s u l t o f at m o s p h e r i c change, and sea l e v e l r i s e ; many a r e a l r e a d y underway, o t h e r impacts may s t i l l be unknown. c) Summary of Known Impacts of Sea Level Rise Due to Climate Change Physical Environmental Impacts: * F l o o d i n g o f c o a s t a l and l o w - l y i n g t e r r a i n ; * S u b s i d e n c e ( s i n k i n g o f c o a s t a l urban c e n t r e s ) ; * L o s s o f s o f t r o c k s h o r e l i n e a r e a s and beaches. * L o s s o f l a n d , and i n u n d a t e d urban and r u r a l a r e a s by e n c r o a c h i n g w a t e r ; * Groundwater c o n t a m i n a t i o n by s a l t w a t e r i n t r u s i o n ; * D e s t r u c t i o n o f n a t u r a l p r o t e c t i v e s h o r e l i n e ecosystems, i . e . mangroves; * D i m i n i s h m e n t and/or d e s t r u c t i o n o f ma r i n e f i s h e r i e s ; * R e d u c t i o n o f b i o d i v e r s i t y and n a t u r a l r e s o u r c e s ; * Warmer t e m p e r a t u r e s ; * M a j o r s h i f t s i n p r e c i p i t a t i o n b e l t s ; * I n c r e a s e d i n c i d e n c e o f p e s t s , d i s e a s e i n a g r i c u l t u r a l a r e a s ; * S a l i n i z a t i o n o f a g r i c u l t u r a l s o i l s ; * I n c r e a s i n g p r e s s u r e on d i m i n i s h i n g f r e s h w a t e r r e s o u r c e s . S o c i a l , Economic, and P o l i t i c a l Impacts: * I n c r e a s e d l a n d l e s s n e s s ; * I n c r e a s e d p o v e r t y ; * I n c r e a s e d h e a l t h r i s k s , d i s e a s e ; * L o s s o f l i v e l i h o o d i n f i s h e r i e s , f a r m i n g , t o u r i s m ; * L o s s o f n a t u r a l r e s o u r c e s ; * T h r e a t e n e d n a t i o n a l s e c u r i t y ; * I s s u e s o f e q u i t y ; * Damage t o i n f r a s t r u c t u r e ( r o a d s , b r i d g e s , b u i l d i n g s , p o r t s , a i r p o r t s , underground c a b l e s and p i p e s ) ; * A l t e r e d growing seasons i n a g r i c u l t u r e ; * C o n t a m i n a t i o n o f wa t e r f o r d o m e s t i c and i n d u s t r i a l use. CHAPTER THREE PLANNING IN ACTION i) What i s Planning? What do Planners do? C o a s t a l zones, and t h e i r r e s i d e n t p o p u l a t i o n s , a r e on a " c o l l i s i o n c o u r s e " w i t h d e s t i n y — from i n c r e a s i n g and c u m u l a t i v e i m p a c t s o f i n c r e a s i n g greenhouse gases, h i g h e r e a r t h t e m p e r a t u r e s , r i s i n g s e a l e v e l s , beach e r o s i o n , w e t l a n d l o s s , i n c r e a s i n g c o a s t a l p o p u l a t i o n s and urban development, c o a s t a l e n g i n e e r i n g and c o a s t a l u p l a n d l o s s . T h e r e f o r e , i s s u e s o f g l o b a l c l i m a t e change and t h e r e s u l t o f a n t i c i p a t e d i n c r e a s e s i n sea l e v e l r i s e due t o g l o b a l warming t r e n d s have t o be addr e s s e d now — by communities, p o l i t i c i a n s , b u s i n e s s e s , p l a n n e r s , and p o l i c y makers a l i k e . A l l c o a s t a l communities around t h e w o r l d a r e impa c t e d by t h e advent o f r i s e s i n s ea l e v e l s , some a r e a s b e i n g o n l y s l i g h t l y a f f e c t e d but many o t h e r s t o t h e p o i n t o f e x t i n c t i o n . The c h a l l e n g e o f c o a s t a l zone management w i t h r e g a r d t o c l i m a t e change i s s u e s i s n o t l i m i t e d t o r e g u l a t i n g s e c t o r - s p e c i f i c a c t i v i t i e s , n o r m e r e l y l a n d - u s e p l a n n i n g . I n t h i s c o n t e x t , c o a s t a l zone management f a l l s under t h e much more p e r v a s i v e u m b r e l l a o f " s u s t a i n a b l e development". T h e r e f o r e , p l a n n e r s and t h e i r r e s p e c t i v e governments u r g e n t l y need t o g e t a g r i p on t h e f a c t s , t r e n d s , and h i s t o r y o f t h e i r r e g i o n , r e v i e w i n g b o t h t h e s h o r t and t h e l o n g - t e r m i m p l i c a t i o n s o f c u r r e n t and p r o p o s e d p l a n s and p o l i c i e s p e r t a i n i n g t o t h e i r c o a s t a l a r e a s . The o b j e c t i v e o f c u r r e n t p l a n n i n g i s t o promote and p r o v i d e a system w h i c h s u s t a i n s human a c t i v i t y , p r e s e r v i n g and p r o t e c t i n g r e s o u r c e s w h i l e r e g u l a t i n g human b e h a v i o u r i n o r d e r t o c o n t i n u o u s l y s u p p o r t s o c i e t y i n a l l i t s f u n c t i o n s , needs and d e s i r e s . The a d v e n t o f u n a n t i c i p a t e d c l i m a t e change, as a r e s u l t o f i n d u s t r i a l and t e c h n o l o g i c a l developments over t h e p a s t c e n t u r y , has exposed a weak l i n k i n t h e f i e l d o f p l a n n i n g — t h a t p l a n n i n g i t s e l f , i n i t s a t t e m p t s t o p e r p e t u a t e t h e s t a t u s quo o f i t s s o c i e t y ' s v a l u e s , r e l i e s upon a r e l a t i v e l y s t a t i c n a t u r a l e n v i r o n m e n t , one i n which l i t t l e change o c c u r s i n t h e p h y s i c a l phenomenon w h i c h s u s t a i n s s o c i e t y . R a r e l y have s i g n i f i c a n t changes i n n a t u r a l phenomena been t a k e n i n t o a c c o u n t , c o n s p i c u o u s by t h e g e n e r a l absence o f l o n g - t e r m p l a n s by e i t h e r government o r b u s i n e s s e s , p a r t i c u l a r l y i n N o r t h A m e r i c a n s o c i e t y . P l a n n i n g by n a t u r e i s a s h o r t - t e r m e x e r c i s e , o f t e n i n t h e form o f r e a c t i v e measures t o p r e v i o u s l y u n a n t i c i p a t e d d i s a s t e r s r e s u l t i n g from p r e v i o u s a c t i v i t y . The l o n g e r term view l i e s s e e m i n g l y beyond t h e c o n t r o l o r c o n c e r n o f p l a n n e r s o r government, f a l l i n g i n s t e a d i n t o t h e n e t h e r r e a l m o f " f u t u r o l o g i s t s " . T h e o r e t i c a l l y , p l a n n i n g as an a c t i v i t y i m p l i e s h a v i n g b o t h c o n t r o l o v e r a s i t u a t i o n , and s p e c i f i c o b j e c t i v e s t o be a c h i e v e d . I n s h o r t , a p l a n o u t l i n e s s p e c i f i c a c t i o n f o r a s p e c i f i c c o n d i t i o n d e s i g n e d t o p r i m a r i l y s e r v e immediate and n e a r - f u t u r e i n t e r e s t s o f i t s s o c i e t y . However, n a t u r e has a l r e a d y p r o v e n t o be n e i t h e r i n f i n i t e l y s u s t a i n a b l e i n form, nor u l t i m a t e l y c o n t r o l l a b l e i n f u n c t i o n . Thus, t h e c h a l l e n g e o f p l a n n i n g remains t h e dilemma of t r y i n g t o s u s t a i n c u r r e n t human a c t i v i t i e s i n b o t h form and f u n c t i o n w h i l e s i m u l t a n e o u s l y c o p i n g w i t h s i g n i f i c a n t e n v i r o n m e n t a l changes. We have now a r r i v e d a t a s t a t e i n our n a t u r a l environment t h a t i s t u r b u l e n t i n n a t u r e , and one t h a t i s u n l i k e l y t o s t a b i l i z e any t i m e soon. A c c o r d i n g t o D a v i d M o r l e y (1986) "by t u r b u l e n c e we r e f e r t o c o n d i t i o n s t h a t e x h i b i t v a r i a t i o n s o u t s i d e t h e range of e x p e c t e d d i s t u r b a n c e s t h a t a f f e c t our economic and s o c i a l systems".'" By M o r l e y ' s d e f i n i t i o n , " t u r b u l e n c e " e x i s t s i f i n d i v i d u a l o r c o l l e c t i v e e x p e r i e n c e r e f l e c t s i t , i n any o f t h e f o l l o w i n g : * a c c e l e r a t i n g r a t e s o f change; f. * i n c r e a s i n g s c a l e o f p e r t u r b a t i o n s o r s h i f t s i n c o n d i t i o n s ; * i n c r e a s i n g u n p r e d i c t a b i l i t y o f e v e n t s ; * a c o n t i n u i n g sense o f c r i s i s ; * f r e q u e n t c o n f r o n t a t i o n w i t h problems t h a t a r e o f a l e v e l o f c o m p l e x i t y t h a t makes them i n a c c e s s i b l e t o n o r m a l i n t e r v e n t i o n s t r a t e g i e s ; and * a t e ndency f o r i n c r e a s i n g amounts o f t i m e t o be s p e n t on r e s p o n d i n g t o t h e u n i n t e n d e d e f f e c t s o f p r e v i o u s a c t i o n s . ' ^ The c u r r e n t i s s u e s and debates about g l o b a l c l i m a t e change, and p e n d i n g s e a l e v e l r i s e , meet a l l o f t h e above c r i t e r i a , t h e r e f o r e we must c o n c l u d e t h a t a) we a r e i n d e e d l i v i n g w i t h a t u r b u l e n t e n v i r o n m e n t a l s i t u a t i o n , and b) moving o u t o f t h e p r e v i o u s c o m f o r t D a v i d M o r l e y "Approaches t o P l a n n i n g i n T u r b u l e n t E n v i r o n m e n t s " , i n P l a n n i n g i n T u r b u l e n c e (1986), E d i t e d by D a v i d M o r l e y and A r i e Shachar (The Magnes P r e s s , The Hebrew U n i v e r s i t y , J e r u s a l e m , I s r a e l ) ; page 5 zone o f p l a n n i n g based on " r a t i o n a l a n a l y s i s " and " o b j e c t i v e o b s e r v a t i o n " a l o n e , and i n t o one o f " t r a n s i t i o n a l adjustment".'* T h i s means p l a n n e r s a r e now f a c e d w i t h t h e c h a l l e n g e o f t r y i n g t o "resp o n d under c i r c u m s t a n c e s i n which b e l i e f i n t h e a b i l i t y o f t h e e x i s t i n g means used by them t o c a r r y o u t such t a s k s has been s i g n i f i c a n t l y undermined by t h e w i d e l y r e c o g n i z e d t e n d e n c y f o r t h e u n i n t e n d e d outcomes o f a p l a n n i n g s t r a t e g y t o o u t w e i g h t h e plann e d outcomes" P l a n n i n g i s e s s e n t i a l l y an e x e r c i s e i n p r o b l e m s o l v i n g . However, now i t seems we a r e t o soon j o i n f o r c e s w i t h t h o s e much m a l i g n e d f u t u r o l o g i s t s i n our a t t e m p t s t o s t a b i l i z e e x i s t i n g t r e n d s o f change lo o m i n g on t h e near h o r i z o n . How s h a l l p l a n n e r s d e t e r m i n e t h e c o s t s and t h e b e n e f i t s o f such an e x e r c i s e when no one v a r i a b l e c a n be c o n t r o l l e d ? The c u r r e n t s i t u a t i o n r e f l e c t s t o a c o n s i d e r a b l e degree, t h e c h a l l e n g e s a l w a y s f a c e d by t h e emergency p l a n n i n g f i e l d . I t i s perhaps t h i s t y p e o f p l a n n i n g e x e r c i s e t h a t p l a n n e r s and p o l i c y makers can b e s t t u r n t o i n t h e i r a t t e m p t s t o d e v e l o p a p r o a c t i v e p l a n n i n g methodology i n a n t i c i p a t i o n o f change, i f n o t o u t r i g h t c r i s i s . A c c o r d i n g t o W a r r i c k and Riebsame, s i n c e i t i s n e v e r t h e l o n g - t e r m t r e n d t h a t p e o p l e adapt t o , b u t r a t h e r " t h e extreme o f t h e s h o r t - t e r m f l u c t u a t i o n s w i t h i n a t r e n d " , p l a n n e r s can draw upon b e h a v i o u r o c c u r r i n g i n "dr o u g h t , f l o o d s , and o t h e r extreme weather c o n d i t i o n s w h i c h we l a b e l c r i s e s " s i n c e t h e s e '* M o r l e y (1986), I b i d . ; page 4. ^ M o r l e y (1986), I b i d . ; page 5. a r e t h e "raw m a t e r i a l s from which we can draw c o n c l u s i o n s about what k i n d s o f a d a p t i v e b e h a v i o u r c o u l d be m o b i l i z e d t o d e a l w i t h l o n g - r u n change".'* I n r e s p o n s e t o t h e new g l o b a l t h i n k i n g r e g a r d i n g e f f o r t s t o a c h i e v e " s u s t a i n a b l e development", t h e Canadian I n t e r n a t i o n a l Development Agency (CIDA) r e v i s e d i t s p o l i c i e s g u i d i n g i t s development o b j e c t i v e s f o r d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s as s p e c i f i e d i n i t s document " P o l i c y f o r E n v i r o n m e n t a l S u s t a i n a b i l i t y " ( J a n u a r y , 1992). A c c o r d i n g t o t h i s document, a l l f u t u r e development i n i t i a t i v e s a r e t o r e f l e c t t h e f o l l o w i n g o b j e c t i v e s i n i t s p l a n n i n g p r o c e s s : 1. The e c o l o g i c a l basis for development, t o r e c o g n i z e t h e p r o d u c t i v e p o t e n t i a l and ecosystem l i m i t s t o development i n a g i v e n a r e a ; 2. The economic value of the environment and means f o r r e c o g n i z i n g e n v i r o n m e n t a l v a l u e s i n economic d e c i s i o n -making ; 3. The r e l a t i o n s h i p s suaong poverty, population dynamics, natural resource consiimption and environmental degradation." [Emphasis added] These p o i n t s r e p r e s e n t an e x c e l l e n t f i r s t s t e p i n r e c o g n i z i n g t h e degr e e and d e p t h o f t h e problem. However, what methodology w i l l be us e d t o d e t e r m i n e t h e answers t o t h e s e c o n c e r n s ? W i l l s h o r t - t e r m c o n s i d e r a t i o n s , s u c h as economic g a i n f o r a few, s t i l l p r e d o m i n a t e o v e r l o n g - t e r m i s s u e s o f e n v i r o n m e n t a l s u s t a i n a b i l i t y ? What v a l u e '* R o b e r t S. Chen, E l i s e B o u l d i n g and Sephen H. S c h n e i d e r , E d i t o r s (1983), S o c i a l S c i e n c e R e s e a r c h and C l i m a t e Change. (D. R e i d e l P u b l i s h i n g Company; D o r d r e c h t , B o s t o n ) ; page 6. " Can a d i a n I n t e r n a t i o n a l Development Agency (CIDA). (1982) P o l i c y f o r E n v i r o n m e n t a l S u s t a i n a b i l i t y (Government o f Canada; Otta w a ) . w i l l our s o c i e t y o r o t h e r s p l a c e on human l i f e i n t h e f u t u r e , e s p e c i a l l y as p o p u l a t i o n s c o n t i n u e t o expand and n a t u r a l systems d e s t a b i l i z e ? As B o u l d i n g (1983) p o i n t s out " l o c a l s h o r t - t e r m a d a p t a t i o n and l o n g - t e r m s o c i e t a l p l a n n i n g a r e ... v e r y d i f f e r e n t o r d e r s o f phenomena".''* i i ) Uncertainty i n Planning — Gaps i n Knowledge and Other Constraints to Planning A l o n g w i t h Chen, B o u l d i n g , and S c h n e i d e r (1983) t h e a u t h o r s of t h e A m e r i c a n A s s o c i a t i o n f o r A t m o s p h e r i c S c i e n c e s s t u d y a l s o r e c o g n i z e d t h e d i f f i c u l t y o f communicating l o n g - t e r m t r e n d changes t o p l a n n e r s (and p o l i c y m a k e r s ) accustomed t o d e a l i n g w i t h i ) a s s u m p t i o n s of system s t a b i l i t y , and i i ) s h o r t - t e r m p l a n s based on c u r r e n t p o l i t i c a l and economic a g e n d a s . T h r o w i n g i n t h e j u g g e r n a u t o f u n c e r t a i n t y r e g a r d i n g s p e c i f i c i m p a c t s o f g l o b a l c l i m a t e changes, such as sea l e v e l r i s e among o t h e r s , p l a c e s f u r t h e r c o n s t r a i n t s on t h e p l a n n i n g p r o c e s s t o s u s t a i n development. A c c o r d i n g t o Y e h e z k e l D r o r (1996), p l a n n i n g as an a c t i v i t y i s not suppose t o i n c l u d e elements o f r i s k — t h a t i n e ssence i t i s e x p e c t e d t o produce a " r i s k - l e s s " plan.'*^ A t t h e p r e s e n t t i m e . E l i s e B o u l d i n g (1983), " S e t t i n g New R e s e a r c h Agendas: A S o c i a l S c i e n t i s t ' s View" i n R o b e r t S. Chen, E. B o u l d i n g , and S. S c h n e i d e r , E d i t o r s . S o c i a l S c i e n c e R e s e a r c h and C l i m a t e Change (D. R i e d e l P u l D l i s h i n g Company; D o r d r e c h t , B o s t o n ) ; page 6. R o b e r t S. Chen, E l i s e B o u l d i n g , and S t e v e n S c h n e i d e r , E d i t o r s (1983), S o c i a l S c i e n c e R e s e a r c h and C l i m a t e Change (D. R i e d e l P u b l i s h i n g Company; D o r d r e c h t , B o s t o n ) . '"^  Y e h e z k e l D r o r (1986) " P l a n n i n g as F u z z y Gambling: A R a d i c a l P e r s p e c t i v e on Coping w i t h U n c e r t a i n t y " i n P l a n n i n g i n T u r b u l e n c e (1986) D a v i d M o r l e y and A r i e Shachar, E d i t o r s (Magnes P r e s s , The s u b t l e changes i n sea l e v e l r i s e o r c l i m a t e change i n g e n e r a l o c c u r r i n g o v e r a l o n g p e r i o d t i m e may not appear, a t f i r s t g l a n c e , t o w a r r a n t a l l t h e a t t e n t i o n and expense demanded by many groups, i n c l u d i n g r e s e a r c h e r s , e n v i r o n m e n t a l a d v o c a t e s , and most r e c e n t l y , t h e s m a l l i s l a n d n a t i o n s . However i t i s the i n s i d i o u s cumulative and compounding aspects of these changes t h a t r e a l l y c r e a t e p l a n n i n g and p o l i c y headaches. P l a n n e r s a r e now d e a l i n g w i t h a degree and k i n d o f u n c e r t a i n t y t h a t d i f f e r s from p a s t e x p e r i e n c e s — t h e magnitude b e i n g g l o b a l and a l l p e r v a s i v e . A c c o r d i n g t o M o r l e y (1986) , t h i s new k i n d of u n c e r t a i n t y " p l a c e s g r e a t e r demands f o r t h e s e r v i c e s o f e x p e r t s " w h i l e a t t h e same t i m e t h e phenomena of such i m p a c t s a r e s e v e r e l y t e s t i n g t h e i r t e c h n o l o g i c a l c a p a c i t i e s t o p r o v i d e c o n c r e t e a n s w e r s . H o w e v e r W i l d a v s k y (1991) warns t h a t t o assume "no r i s k i s t h e h i g h e s t r i s k o f a l l " . ' * * I n h i s book. The R i s i n g Seas. M a r t i n I n c e s t a t e s t h a t "consensus [ e x i s t s ] among s c i e n t i s t s t h a t g l o b a l s e a l e v e l s have been s t e a d i l y r i s i n g f o r t h e p a s t 100 y e a r s and t h a t g l o b a l warming i s l i k e l y t o a c c e l e r a t e t h e r a t e o f t h i s r i s e o v e r t h e next c e n t u r y " , and t h a t , Hebrew U n i v e r s i t y ; J e r u s a l e m ) ; page 33. W3 M o r l e y (1986), Op. C i t . ; page 3. A a r o n W i l d a v s k y "No R i s k i s t h e H i g h e s t R i s k o f A l l " i n R e a d i n g s i n R i s k (1991), Theodore S. G l i c k m a n , M i c h a e l Gough, E d i t o r s . ( R e sources F o r t h e F u t u r e ; Washington, D . C ) ; page 120. v i r t u a l l y a l l o f t h e p r i n c i p a l s c i e n t i s t s w o r k i n g i n t h e f i e l d b e l i e v e t h a t t h e t i m e has come f o r c o a s t a l p l a n n i n g w i t h r e g a r d t o a c c e l e r a t e d sea l e v e l r i s e . S c i e n t i s t s b e l i e v e t h a t a s i g n i f i c a n t l y a c c e l e r a t e d g l o b a l sea l e v e l r i s e i s p r o b a b l e d u r i n g our l i f e t i m e s . ' " ^ He goes on t o s t a t e t h a t t h e " p l a n n e r ' s t a s k , t h e n i s t o work out -as a p o l i c y m a t t e r - a r e a s o n a b l e and p r u d e n t g e n e r a l p l a n n i n g a s s u m p t i o n f o r how much t h e sea w i l l r i s e and by when"! T h i s seems l i k e a r e a s o n a b l e r e q u e s t , however f i n d i n g out t h i s i n f o r m a t i o n a l o n e , n o t t h a t we can t o any g r e a t degree o f p r e d i c t a b i l i t y , i s n o t enough. I n d o i n g so would m e r e l y p r o v i d e e n d l e s s d ebates as t o whether o r n o t s u f f i c i e n t e v i d e n c e e x i s t s t o w a r r a n t t h e t i m e and r e s o u r c e s r e q u i r e d t o change c u r r e n t a c t i v i t i e s w i t h i n c o a s t a l zones. The f o l l o w i n g summarizes t h e v a r i o u s c o n s t r a i n t s t o p l a n n i n g f o r , i m p l e m e n t i n g , and a c h i e v i n g s u s t a i n a b l e development s t r a t e g i e s w h i c h would a i d p l a n n e r s i n t h e t a s k o f a d d r e s s i n g sea l e v e l r i s e among o t h e r g l o b a l c l i m a t e change i s s u e s : * S u s t a i n a b i l i t y f a c t o r s (demands on t h e p h y s i c a l l i m i t s of r e s o u r c e s ) o f i n c r e a s i n g p o p u l a t i o n t r e n d s and demographic c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f t h e s e i n c r e a s e s s i n c e i t i s e s t i m a t e d t h a t i n e x c e s s o f one t h i r d o f t h e c u r r e n t p o p u l a t i o n r e s i d e s w i t h i n c o a s t a l a r e a s ; * B o t h d o m e s t i c and f o r e i g n p o l i t i c s , e s p e c i a l l y t h e g e n e r a l u n w i l l i n g n e s s t o s a c r i f i c e p r e s e n t p r o f i t s f o r l o n g - t e r m s u s t a i n a b i l i t y ; t h e environment as an i s s u e r e l a t e d t o economic development has o n l y r e c e n t l y , i n 1993, made i t on t o t h e agenda o f i n t e r n a t i o n a l economic summits; * Depressed g l o b a l economic s t a b i l i t y and p r o d u c t i o n l e v e l s o f t h e d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s w h i l e s i m u l t a n e o u s l y f a c i n g c h a l l e n g e s M a r t i n Ince (1990) , The R i s i n g Seas. ( E a r t h s c a n P u b l i c a t i o n s L t d . ; London); page 17. from r i s i n g t h i r d w o r l d economies; * Economic models o f development which f a i l t o i n c l u d e t h e n a t u r a l environment and i s s u e s of e q u i t y i n t h e b e n e f i t / c o s t a n a l y s i s o f development; * H i r i n g t r a d i t i o n a l l y - t r a i n e d e c onomists t o d e v e l o p c o s t -a c c o u n t i n g mechanisms f o r e n v i r o n m e n t a l damage ( t h e a t t i t u d e o f t h e environment as a commodity t o be a u c t i o n e d o f f ) , w h i l e s t i l l r e s i s t i n g t h e need f o r i n t e r d i s c i p l i n a r y " e x p e r t s " and team approaches t o problem s o l v i n g ; * Government p o l i c y t h a t i s developed i n c o n s u l t a t i o n w i t h p r i v a t e b u s i n e s s i n t e r e s t s , m o t i v a t e d by p r o f i t and s h o r t - t e r m g a i n s a t t h e expense o f i s s u e s o f e q u i t y and l o n g - t e r m system s t a b i l i t y ; * A l a c k o f c o - o r d i n a t e d n a t i o n a l and l o c a l l e v e l p o l i c y o b j e c t i v e s d e v e l o p e d w i t h i n an i n t e g r a t e d o r h o l i s t i c framework; * * P r i v a t e b u s i n e s s i n t e r e s t s which c o n t i n u e t o overwhelm p u b l i c i n t e r e s t s i n l a n d use and o t h e r development p r o p o s a l s ; * C o m p e t i t i o n among v a r i o u s donor a g e n c i e s f o r o v e r s e a s c o n t r a c t s i n t h e d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s which c o m p l i c a t e t h e n e g o t i a t i n g p r o c e s s r e g a r d i n g s u s t a i n a b l e development p o l i c y o b j e c t i v e s ; * I n t h e d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s , t i e d - a i d o b j e c t i v e s o f f o r e i g n a i d programmes t h a t r u n c o n t r a r y t o p o l i c i e s t o i n c o r p o r a t e e n v i r o n m e n t a l s u s t a i n a b i l i t y i n t o p l a n n i n g a c t i v i t i e s ; * F i n a n c i n g and r e g u l a t i o n s i n l e n d i n g agreements t o l e s s d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s a r e not l i n k e d t o e n v i r o n m e n t a l s u s t a i n a b i l i t y p o l i c i e s , nor t o i s s u e s o f human r i g h t s i s s u e s o r e q u i t y ; A l t e r n a t i v e f i n a n c i n g arrangements f o r d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s s h o u l d be d e v i s e d t o a l l o w f o r o p p o r t u n i t i e s t o a d d r e s s e n v i r o n m e n t a l i s s u e s w i t h r e g a r d t o f o r e i g n a i d d e b t ; * Underdeveloped p u b l i c e d u c a t i o n i n awareness o f , and commitment t o , i s s u e s l i n k i n g l o n g - t e r m economic s t a b i l i t y w i t h e n v i r o n m e n t a l s u s t a i n a b i l i t y ; * P u b l i s h e d r e s e a r c h and recommendations o f s p e c i a l committees a r e n o t f u l l y u t i l i z e d i n t h e development o f new p o l i c i e s o r programs by governments o r t h e b u s i n e s s community, w h i l e s i m u l t a n e o u s l y c a l l i n g f o r more r e s e a r c h t o p r o v i d e "hard e v i d e n c e " and "easy s o l u t i o n s " . The c a l l f o r f u r t h e r r e s e a r c h i s both a p o s i t i v e and a n e g a t i v e i n t h e p l a n n i n g p r o c e s s . From a n e g a t i v e v i e w p o i n t i t can, and has been, used as b o t h an argument a g a i n s t , and d e l a y t a c t i c , t o t a k i n g p r e s e n t a c t i o n t o change t h e way p l a n n i n g and p o l i c y making i s d e v e l o p e d . On a p o s i t i v e n o t e , i t does c o n v e r t l o s t j o b s from t r a d i t i o n a l s e c t o r s o f t h e economy, such as r e s o u r c e e x t r a c t i o n , i n t o e n v i r o n m e n t a l g a i n s as new r o l e s a r e found f o r p e o p l e i n t h e c o n t e x t o f e n v i r o n m e n t a l m o n i t o r i n g and management. Furthermore, gaps i n e x i s t i n g knowledge have been l e g i t i m a t e l y i d e n t i f i e d as a h i n d e r a n c e t o r e a l l y e f f e c t i v e p l a n n i n g s t r a t e g i e s . The f o l l o w i n g c o n s t i t u t e s a p a r t i a l l i s t o f such gaps: * Lack o f accumulated h i s t o r i c a l d a t a ( i . e . c l i m a t e , h y d r o m e t e o r o l o g y & h y d r o l o g y d a t a a v a i l a b l e i s o f t e n i n c o m p l e t e , e x c e p t i n M e d i t e r r a n e a n a r e a where e x t e n s i v e h i s t o r i c a l r e c o r d s have been k e p t ) ; * Problems w i t h a c c u r a t e n e s s o f c o l l e c t e d d a t a ( t h e w o r l d i s not a c o n t r o l l e d l a b o r a t o r y e x p e r i m e n t ) ; d e b a t e s over m e t h o d o l o g i e s and a n a l y s i s o f c o l l e c t e d s t a t i s t i c s a problem; * R i s k Assessment - Time l i n e , p r e d i c t a b i l i t y o f f o r e c a s t i n g t r e n d s w h e r e i n t h e degree o f " u n c e r t a i n t y " i n c r e a s e s as t i m e l i n e s l e n g t h e n . ( F u r t h e r c o m p l i c a t e d by t h e f a c t t h a t t h e "when" and "by how much" cannot be e s t i m a t e d a c c u r a t e l y , however t h e c u r r e n t g u i d e l i n e i s t o a l l o w f o r 0.7 meter r i s e i n sea l e v e l by 2050)'°*; * Whole ar e n a o f r i s k / u n c e r t a i n t y i n d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g p r o c e s s ; s h o u l d be d e a l t w i t h d i r e c t l y i n E n v i r o n m e n t a l Impact Assessments; some o f t h e u n c e r t a i n t y can be removed, and c e r t a i n r i s k s a l l e v i a t e d by i n c r e a s i n g m o n i t o r i n g , s u r v e i l l a n c e and s u p e r v i s i o n programs. The g e n e r a l p u b l i c l o o k s t o i t s government and p o l i c y m a k e r s f o r g u i d a n c e and r e a s s u r a n c e , much t h e same as c h i l d r e n l o o k t o t h e i r p a r e n t s f o r d e c i s i v e n e s s and c e r t a i n t y . I t i s v e r y d i f f i c u l t t o d e v e l o p a p r o c e s s o f making d e c i s i o n s when o p e r a t i n g i n an i n t e l l e c t u a l v o i d and g e n e r a l atmosphere o f e n v i r o n m e n t a l chaos. G i v e n t h e c o n c e p t o f "change" as t h e o n l y c o n s t a n t , how can e f f e c t i v e p l a n s and d e c i s i o n s be made? i i i ) Decision-making i n Planning: The Role of Coastal Zone Management i n Planning for Climate Change Compounding t h e problem of p e r s i s t e n t , b u t s e e m i n g l y i m p e r c e p t i b l e change, i s t h e need t o implement s t e p s now but whose r e s u l t s and b e n e f i t s may not be r e a l i z e d f o r many decades i n t o t h e f u t u r e . I n o t h e r words, s o c i e t i e s a r e b e i n g c a l l e d upon t o s a c r i f i c e s h o r t - t e r m and immediate i n t e r e s t s ( e . g . p r e f e r r e d c o u r s e s o f a c t i o n and p r o f i t s ) i n o r d e r t o p r e s e r v e and p r o t e c t t h e s u s t a i n a b i l i t y o f f u t u r e e c o l o g i c a l systems f o r f u t u r e g e n e r a t i o n s . I n t h e i r p a p e r , " S u r p r i s e & O p p o r t u n i t y : I n E v o l u t i o n , i n E c o systems, i n S o c i e t y " C.S. H o l l i n g and Stephen B o c k i n g (1991) s t a t e t h e need t o "acknowledge t h e i n e v i t a b i l i t y o f chancre [ o f our e c o s y stems] i n [ t h e ] c o n t e x t of s u s t a i n a b l e development"."" H o l l i n g and B o c k i n g s t a t e t h a t p e o p l e w i l l have t o become t h e i r own " a r c h i t e c t s o f s u s t a i n a b l e development". I n sum, a l l a s p e c t s o f human endeavour t o s u s t a i n d a i l y l i f e w i l l r e q u i r e t h a t a l l government p o l i c i e s and t h e i r r e s p e c t i v e i n s t i t u t i o n s i n c o r p o r a t e i s s u e s o f g l o b a l c l i m a t e change i n o r d e r t o produce a c o h e s i v e and C.S. H o l l i n g and Stephen B o c k i n g , " S u r p r i s e and O p p o r t u n i t y : i n E v o l u t i o n , i n Ecosystems, i n S o c i e t y " i n P l a n e t Under S t r e s s . The C h a l l e n g e of G l o b a l Change. (1991) E d i t e d by C o nstance M u n g a l l and Digby J . McLaren (The R o y a l S o c i e t y o f Canada, O x f o r d U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s ; T o r o n t o ) ; page 236. c o l l e c t i v e system o f management whereby t h e i n t e n d e d p o l i c y o b j e c t i v e s o f s u s t a i n a b l e development f i l t e r down t o each and each a s p e c t o f human a c t i v i t y . Furthermore, t h i n k i n g and p l a n n i n g w i l l have t o be r e c a s t t o encompass a l o n g - t e r m , i n t e g r a t e d approach t o c o a s t a l zone management wherein economic p r o g r e s s and e n v i r o n m e n t a l i s s u e s a r e n o t o n l y everybody's b u s i n e s s , b u t e v e r y person's r e s p o n s i b i l i t y . As f o r p l a n n e r s , t h e r e i s a need t o ask, "what does my d i s c i p l i n e a l r e a d y do?", "what s h o u l d i t do?", and "how c o u l d i n t e r d i s c i p l i n a r y work be d e s i g n e d ? " t o a d d r e s s t h e problems a r i s i n g f r om g l o b a l c l i m a t e change i m p a c t s . To r e i t e r a t e B o u l d i n g ' s wisdom, " l o c a l s h o r t - t e r m a d a p t a t i o n and l o n g - t e r m s o c i e t a l p l a n n i n g a r e ... v e r y d i f f e r e n t o r d e r s o f phenomena".'"* What i s r e a l l y needed i s t h e c r e a t i o n o f a " L i v i n g P o l i c y o r P l a n " — g e t t i n g i t o f f t h e paper, beyond r h e t o r i c as a l i v i n g component o f t h e c o n t e x t i n which d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g i s done. We d o n ' t want i t t o be a r i t u a l c h e c k l i s t i t e m , n ot an a f t e r t h o u g h t , n o r one t h o s e a b s t r a c t " p o l i c y g u i d e l i n e s " t h a t no one i n t h e f i e l d o r i n t h e a d m i n i s t r a t i o n can g e t a ha n d l e on i t , t h u s p a y i n g i t l i p s e r v i c e o n l y w i t h o u t a c o n s t r u c t i v e mechanism f o r a c t u a l l y i m p l e m e n t i n g i t . Knowing what we don't want i n p l a n n i n g r e s p o n s e s i s a p o s i t i v e f i r s t s t e p . I d e a l l y we want a p r o a c t i v e p l a n n i n g and f o l l o w - u p s t r a t e g y u t i l i z i n g a team approach. To b r i n g i t " a l i v e " r e q u i r e s B o u l d i n g (1983), Op. C i t . ; page 6. t h a t b e n e f i t s and windows o f o p p o r t u n i t i e s be sought f o r improvements, t o examine economic and p o l i t i c a l systems f o r o b s o l e s c e n c e , and t o t r a i n p e o p l e now t o l o o k a t i n f o r m a t i o n w i t h i n a c o n t e x t o f change, n o t t h e norm o r s t a t u s quo, n o t " b u s i n e s s as u s u a l " . P l a n n e r s a r e a l l t h o s e i n d i v i d u a l s , i n s t i t u t i o n s , and o r g a n i z a t i o n s ( p u b l i c and p r i v a t e ) who have an agenda — i n sum, s o c i e t y a t l a r g e w o r k i n g t o g e t h e r t o a c h i e v e a common mandate. T h e r e f o r e , c r i t i c a l t o i n i t i a t i n g a c t i o n i s g e t t i n g t h e i s s u e o f c l i m a t e change on everyone's agenda. I f we a r e n o t a c t i v e l y t h i n k i n g about i t , we a r e not d o i n g a n y t h i n g about i t . I t ' s t h e o l d adage o f "out o f s i g h t , o u t o f mind". U n t i l new t h i n k i n g paradigms can e v o l v e t o t h e l e v e l o f second n a t u r e , t h e problems demand a l l p o l i c i e s and p l a n s keep t h e o b j e c t i v e s c l e a r l y p r i n t e d i n b l a c k and w h i t e . I n t h e i r a r t i c l e , "A M u l t i n a t i o n a l Assessment o f C o a s t a l Zone Management i n OECD C o u n t r i e s " (1994), a u t h o r s C h r i s t o p h e r Chung and Lawrence H i l d e b r a n d , c i t e t h r e e t y p e s o f management d e f i c i e n c i e s and f a i l u r e s w h i c h c h a r a c t e r i z e t h e c u r r e n t c o a s t a l zone management e f f o r t s o f t h e OECD member c o u n t r i e s : i ) p o l i c y d e f i c i e n c i e s , i i ) i n t e r v e n t i o n f a i l u r e , and i i i ) market f a i l u r e . ' " ' W h i l e t h e s e i n a d e q u a c i e s a r e c i t e d as t h e u n d e r l y i n g problems o f c o a s t a l zone management, t h e y a r e p a r t i c u l a r l y r e l e v a n t t o t h e d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g p r o c e s s i n p l a n n i n g a t t e m p t s t o add r e s s g l o b a l c l i m a t e change and '^^  OECD - O r g a n i z a t i o n f o r Economic C o - o p e r a t i o n and Development i t s i m p a c t s , p a r t i c u l a r l y t h a t o f sea l e v e l r i s e . A r e v i e w of t h e s e p r o b l e m s i l l u s t r a t e s t h e case i n p o i n t . a) P o l i c y Deficiencies F i r s t , s u c c e s s f u l , i n t e g r a t e d c o a s t a l zone management i s "few and f a r between" among OECD member c o u n t r i e s due t o an absence o f p o l i c i e s , o r e l s e p o o r l y d eveloped ones e x i s t r e s u l t i n g i n poor i n t e g r a t i o n , c o v e r a g e , i m p l e m e n t a t i o n , and enf o r c e m e n t . These p o l i c i e s a r e a l s o c h a r a c t e r i z e d by i n a p p r o p r i a t e i n s t i t u t i o n a l and a d m i n i s t r a t i v e arrangements, a m b i g u i t y o r c o n t r a d i c t i o n between * p o l i c i e s a d m i n i s t e r e d by d i f f e r e n t s e c t o r a l a g e n c i e s ( r e s u l t i n g i n " t e r r i t o r i a l " t y p e c o n f l i c t s and c o n f u s i o n ) , and a l a c k of e f f e c t i v e c o n s u l t a t i o n p r o c e d u r e s and c o n f l i c t r e s o l u t i o n processes."° Chung and H i l d e b r a n d a l s o s t a t e t h a t t h e development o f "good" p o l i c i e s , i . e . t h o s e t h a t p o s s e s s c l e a r g o a l s , and p o l i c y which i n t e g r a t e s l e g i s l a t i o n , a d m i n i s t r a t i v e arrangements and s e c t o r a l a c t i v i t i e s , i s n o t enough t o ensure adequate c o a s t a l zone management. There i s a f u r t h e r r e q u i r e m e n t t h a t t h e s e p o l i c i e s be backed up "by p o l i t i c a l w i l l and s u p p o r t " t o t r a n s l a t e them i n t o a c t i o n . They c i t e t h e case o f t h e F r a s e r R i v e r E s t u a r y i n B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a , Canada as s u f f e r i n g from weak p o l i t i c a l commitment t o t h e p l a n n i n g and management programs d e v e l o p e d , d e m o n s t r a t e d by a l a c k C h r i s t o p h e r Chung and Lawrence P. H i l d e b r a n d "A M u l t i n a t i o n a l Assessment o f C o a s t a l Zone Management i n OECD C o u n t r i e s " i n E c o d e c i s i o n . V o l . 11 (January, 1994); page 46. o f s u f f i c i e n t f u n d i n g and s u p p o r t s t a f f a t t h e i m p l e m e n t a t i o n s t a g e . Second, " l e g i s l a t i o n r e l a t i n g t o t h e c o a s t a l zone i s o f t e n c o n t r a d i c t o r y and i n s u f f i c i e n t l y comprehensive t o respond a d e q u a t e l y t o t h e complex r e l a t i o n s h i p s t h a t e x i s t " . T h i s was i l l u s t r a t e d i n t h e OECD s t u d y by t h e e x i s t e n c e o f " p o o r l y d e f i n e d o r o v e r l a p p i n g j u r i s d i c t i o n a l b o u n d a r i e s , a p l e t h o r a o f a d m i n i s t e r i n g a g e n c i e s a t s e v e r a l l e v e l s o f government, d u p l i c a t i o n o f r e s p o n s i b i l i t i e s o r c o n s e n t p r o c e d u r e s , v a r i a b l e p u b l i c c o n s u l t a t i o n r e q u i r e d , l i m i t e d c o n s i d e r a t i o n o f t h e c u m u l a t i v e i m p a c t s o f d e c i s i o n s and development, and poor enforcement". An example c i t e d i s t h e c a s e o f A u s t r a l i a w h e r e i n "3 0 l o c a l government c o u n c i l s a l o n g t h e c o a s t i n t e r a c t w i t h some o f t h e 19 s t a t e a g e n c i e s w i t h c o a s t a l r e s p o n s i b i l i t i e s , and, a t t i m e s , w i t h Commonwealth ( f e d e r a l government) a g e n c i e s " . " ' On a more p o s i t i v e n o t e , t h e C o a s t a l Zone Management A c t (CZMA) d e v e l o p e d i n t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s has been recommended as a good r e f e r e n c e p o i n t f o r c r i t i c a l p o l i c y a n a l y s i s because o f i t s r e c o g n i t i o n o f t h e p r i m a r y r o l e s o f s t a t e and l o c a l government, w h i c h t h e A u s t r a l i a n P a r l i a m e n t has s u b s e q u e n t l y recommended, i n t e r a l i a , t h a t t h e Commonwealth Government e n a c t a C o a s t a l Zone Management A c t upon s i m i l a r l i n e s . I n 1991 New Z e a l a n d adopted a new Resource Management A c t w h i c h r e l a t e s a l l " r e s p o n s i b i l i t y f o r d e v e l o p i n g a n a t i o n a l c o a s t a l p o l i c y t o one c e n t r a l government department, w i t h t h e r o l e s and powers o f a l l o t h e r a g e n c i e s i n v o l v e d on t h e c o a s t c l e a r l y s p e c i f i e d " . To d a t e , p r o c e d u r e s have been e s t a b l i s h e d t h a t r e q u i r e a l l l e v e l s o f government t o co-o r d i n a t e and implement p o l i c y i n an i n t e g r a t e d manner as f o l l o w s : * At t h e n a t i o n a l l e v e l : r e s p o n s i b i l i t y f o r b r o a d p o l i c y f o r m u l a t i o n and d e c i s i o n making on m a t t e r s o f major s i g n i f i c a n c e f o r t h e c o a s t o r t h e n a t i o n as a whole. I n t e g r a t i o n a t a p o l i c y l e v e l w i t h o t h e r economic s e c t o r s ( f o r example, f i s h i n g , t r a n s p o r t a t i o n , and a g r i c u l t u r e ) i s r e q u i r e d ; * At t h e r e g i o n a l l e v e l : r e s p o n s i b i l i t y f o r d e t a i l e d p l a n n i n g f o r c o a s t a l and i n l a n d w a t e r s and b r o a d p o l i c y g u i d a n c e f o r t h e management o f c o a s t a l l a n d . I n t e g r a t i o n a t a p l a n n i n g l e v e l w i t h o t h e r economic s e c t o r s i s r e q u i r e d ; * At t h e l o c a l l e v e l : r e s p o n s i b i l i t y f o r d e t a i l e d c o a s t a l l a n d - u s e p l a n n i n g . " ^ Chung and H i l d e b r a n d comment t h a t i t remains t o be seen i f t h i s t y p e o f s i n g l e agency approach can be adapted t o o t h e r c o u n t r i e s w i t h d i f f e r e n t p o l i t i c a l c i r c u m s t a n c e s , and f u r t h e r , i f t h e l o n g -t e r m p e r f o r m a n c e o f such a s t r a t e g y w i l l y i e l d t h e d e s i r e d outcome. F o r example, a l t h o u g h t h e CZMA i n t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s r e p r e s e n t s a w e l l - a c c e p t e d program, t h e r e s t i l l r emain many p o l i c y c o n f l i c t s d e s p i t e l o n g - s t a n d i n g i n t e r d e p a r t m e n t a l and i n t e r s t a t e c o -o p e r a t i o n , i n p a r t i c u l a r s u b s i d i z e d f l o o d i n s u r a n c e programs which encourage r i s k y c o a s t a l development and r e d e v e l o p m e n t ; t h e p o t e n t i a l f o r f e d e r a l t a x p o l i c i e s t o c o n f l i c t w i t h e n v i r o n m e n t a l p r e s e r v a t i o n p o l i c i e s ; and p o l i c i e s t h a t promote r e s o u r c e development c o n f l i c t w i t h w e t l a n d s p r e s e r v a t i o n p o l i c y . b) I n t e r v e n t i o n f a i l u r e : I n t h e i r e f f o r t s t o maximize t h e o u t p u t s o f t h e i r c o a s t a l zones, many OECD member governments u t i l i z e d i r e c t i n t e r v e n t i o n s t r a t e g i e s , w h i c h more o f t e n t h a n n o t , f a i l . The OECD r e p o r t c i t e d f i v e p r i m a r y r e a s o n s f o r t h i s f a i l u r e i n c l u d i n g t h e absence o r i nadequacy o f i n f o r m a t i o n , i n a d e q u a t e c o - o r d i n a t i o n among r e l e v a n t a g e n c i e s , t h e poor d e m a r c a t i o n o f r e s p o n s i b i l i t i e s between a g e n c i e s w i t h i n and o u t s i d e government, t h e l i m i t e d range o f p o l i c y i n s t r u m e n t s used f o r i m p l e m e n t a t i o n , and l a s t l y , u n s a t i s f a c t o r y p o l i c y i m p l e m e n t a t i o n and m o n i t o r i n g / e v a l u a t i o n p h ases. The absence o r inadequacy o f i n f o r m a t i o n r e s u l t s from e i t h e r m i s s i n g o r d e f i c i e n t t y p e s o f i n f o r m a t i o n , w h i c h i s o f t e n compounded by t h e s h o r t a g e o f s k i l l e d t e c h n i c a l p e r s o n n e l t o u n d e r t a k e t h e r e s e a r c h and c r i t i c a l l y r e v i e w development p r o p o s a l s . Chung and H i l d e b r a n d s t a t e t h i s i s most n o t a b l e a t t h e l o c a l government l e v e l , i . e . a t t h e p l a n n i n g l e v e l , where d e t a i l e d c o a s t a l l a n d use and management d e c i s i o n s a r e commonly made. I t i s t h e f a m i l i a r p r o b lem o f h a v i n g complex assessments o f b e n e f i t and c o s t e x e r c i s e s b e i n g r e l e g a t e d t o l o c a l p l a n n e r s and t h e i r r e s p e c t i v e l o c a l c o u n c i l s w h i l e a t t h e same t i m e b o t h a r e hampered t i m e c o n s t r a i n t s , s m a l l and/or i n a d e q u a t e s t a f f i n g , and i n s u f f i c i e n t g u i d a n c e from n a t i o n a l and r e g i o n a l c o a s t a l p o l i c i e s . O t her problems w i t h r e g a r d t o t h e inadequacy o f i n f o r m a t i o n i n c l u d e t h e range o f i n f o r m a t i o n g a t h e r e d , f o r i n s t a n c e p h y s i c a l and b i o l o g i c a l i n f o r m a t i o n s h o u l d be supplemented by a n a l y s e s of t h e economic c o s t s and b e n e f i t s and e n v i r o n m e n t a l i m p a c t s o f a l t e r n a t i v e p l a n s , programs and developments. A l s o , l i m i t e d o p p o r t u n i t i e s e x i s t f o r p u b l i c p a r t i c i p a t i o n and p u b l i c i n p u t i n c o a s t a l zone management. I n B r i t i s h C o lumbia, a t t h e l o c a l l e v e l o n l y one a c t makes i t compulsory t o i n v i t e p u b l i c comment, however t h i s i n p u t i s a l m o s t made i r r e l e v a n t by t h e absence o f p u b l i c i n v o l v e m e n t a t t h e p l a n n i n g and d e c i s i o n making l e v e l s . I n a d e q uate c o - o r d i n a t i o n among r e l e v a n t a g e n c i e s r e s u l t i n c o n f u s i o n , e n v i r o n m e n t a l damage, and l o s t o r r e d u c e d economic o r s o c i a l o p p o r t u n i t i e s , o f t e n c a u s i n g b a c k t r a c k i n g l a t e r a t a d d i t i o n a l expense t o f i x botched up p l a n n i n g e f f o r t s , as i n t h e ca s e o f t h e l a g o o n o f t h e A v e i r o e s t u a r y i n P o r t u g a l . A more p o s i t i v e example o f agency c o - o r d i n a t i o n i s t h e c a s e o f t h e e a s t e r n S c h e l d t e s t u a r y i n t h e N e t h e r l a n d s which was based on a l e n g t h y p e r i o d o f p l a n n i n g s t u d i e s and a h i g h n a t i o n a l commitment t o t h e s u c c e s s o f t h e p r o j e c t . Chung and H i l d e b r a n d s t a t e t h a t " the r e s u l t i n g management p l a n p r o v i d e s f o r economic o b j e c t i v e s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h f l o o d p r o t e c t i o n measures t o complement t h e p r o t e c t i o n o f e c o l o g i c a l , f i s h e r i e s and r e c r e a t i o n a l o p p o r t u n i t i e s . Poor d e m a r c a t i o n o f r e s p o n s i b i l i t i e s between a g e n c i e s w i t h i n and o u t s i d e government impede s u c c e s s o f any c o a s t a l zone management p l a n u n l e s s c l e a r l y s p e c i f i e d and c o - o r d i n a t e d r o l e s a r e l a i d o u t . A t p r e s e n t , Chung and H i l d e b r a n d s t a t e t h a t i n s t i t u t i o n a l r e s p o n s e s g e n e r a l l y f a l l i n t o two camps: a " w i t h i n t h e system" r earrangement i n which t h e o v e r a l l p l a n n i n g and management system i s m a i n t a i n e d but c o n s t i t u e n t e l e m e n t s , p r o c e d u r e s and r e s p o n s i b i l i t i e s a r e r e s h u f f l e d ; o r a complete o v e r h a u l o f t h e system i s u n d e r t a k e n w h e r e i n new " r u l e s o f t h e game" a r e s p e c i f i e d , t h e New Z e a l a n d Resource Management A c t b e i n g an example o f t h i s a pproach. The OECD s t u d y r e v e a l e d a s t r o n g emphasis on r e g u l a t o r y t y p e i n s t r u m e n t s among OECD c o u n t r i e s i n c l u d i n g r e g u l a t i o n s f o r water q u a l i t y , t a r g e t s , z o n i n g , and p e r m i t t e d d i s c h a r g e l i m i t s , e t c . , and economic i n c e n t i v e s i n c l u d i n g p o l l u t e r - p a y s p r i n c i p l e , t a x e s , c h a r g e s , t r a d e a b l e p e r m i t s , and f i n e s , e t c . , and l a s t l y , v o l u n t a r y agreements i n c l u d i n g n e g o t i a t i o n , e d u c a t i o n , and s u a s i o n . Chung and H i l d e b r a n d , among o t h e r s , argue a g a i n s t s u c h e x c e s s i v e r e l i a n c e upon economic approaches a l o n e s i n c e t h e r e e x i s t s t h e tendency t o u n d e r v a l u e c e r t a i n e n v i r o n m e n t a l r e s o u r c e s , and t h e r e f o r e recommend a c o m b i n a t i o n w i t h a mix o f economic i n s t r u m e n t s and r e g u l a t i o n t o c r e a t e a more i n t e g r a t e d p o l i c y approach. Problems o f r e a c t i v e p o l i c y development and i m p l e m e n t a t i o n , c o u p l e d w i t h a l a c k o f p o l i t i c a l w i l l t o s u p p o r t i m p l e m e n t a t i o n , a l a c k o f s y s t e m a t i c m o n i t o r i n g arrangements, and poor enforcement mechanisms a l s o l e a d t o f a i l u r e s i n c o a s t a l zone management e f f o r t s . c) M a r k e t f a i l u r e : Improvement i n t h e way economic markets o p e r a t e i s o n l y one a s p e c t o f a t t e m p t s t o produce e f f e c t i v e c o a s t a l zone management programs. Chung and H i l d e b r a n d argue, " I m p e r f e c t v a l u a t i o n o r non-v a l u a t i o n o f c o a s t a l r e s o u r c e s l e a d t o i n e f f i c i e n t a l l o c a t i o n and t e m p o r a r y o r permanent e n v i r o n m e n t a l damage." " I f market p r i c e s f a i l t o r e f l e c t a r e s o u r c e ' s f u l l v a l u e , demand w i l l be e x c e s s i v e ; t h e r e i s no economic i n c e n t i v e t o a l t e r b e h a v i o u r s , and secondary e n v i r o n m e n t a l problems may be t r i g g e r e d " . F i n e s and p e n a l t i e s which a r e t o o low undermine any and a l l e f f o r t s t o c o n t r o l and/or a l t e r b e h a v i o u r as i n t h e case o f t h e F r a s e r R i v e r i n B r i t i s h Columbia, where t h e a u t h o r s s t a t e t h e " F i n e s f o r v i o l a t i o n s o f h a b i t a t p r o t e c t i o n and p o l l u t i o n c o n t r o l r e g u l a t i o n s were s m a l l and p r o s e c u t i o n s i n t e r m i t t e n t " . Furthermore, e f f o r t s t o i n c o r p o r a t e e x t e r n a l i t i e s i n t o f u l l r e s o u r c e c o s t s a r e a d i f f i c u l t t a s k , r e q u i r i n g improved i n f o r m a t i o n on t h e dynamics o f i n t e r a c t i o n s and i m p a c t s t h a t a f f e c t t h e c o a s t a l zone."'' As can be g l e a n e d from t h e OECD r e p o r t and t h e comments of Chung and H i l d e b r a n d i n t h e i r assessment o f t h e s t a t e o f c o a s t a l zone management t o d a y , new p o s i t i o n s need t o be t a k e n t o w a r d t h e a c t o f p l a n n i n g , i n c o r p o r a t i n g b o t h p a s t and p r e s e n t d a t a i n t o a more b r o a d l y based, i n t e g r a t e d format i n t o o r d e r t o a c h i e v e a more p r o a c t i v e a p p r o a c h , r a t h e r t h a n " r e a c t i v e r e s p o n s e s i n v o l v i n g d e n i a l and maintenance" as suggested by M o r l e y (1986) t h a t a r e i " * Chung and H i l d e b r a n d (1994), I b i d . ; page 48. ^ B6 . commonly found i n s i t u a t i o n s o f u n c e r t a i n t y . I n summary, i t i s e x p e c t e d t h a t p l a n n i n g w i l l p r o v i d e , i n t h e d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g p r o c e s s , ... a s i g n i f i c a n t r o l e i n m o n i t o r i n g t h e c h a n g i n g n a t u r e o f t h e p o s i t i o n s h e l d by t h e i n t e r e s t s i n v o l v e d , p r o v i d i n g f o r c o n s i d e r a t i o n a range o f a l t e r n a t i v e c o u r s e s o f a c t i o n , a d v i s i n g on t h e s e l e c t i o n o f t h o s e a c t i o n s t h a t w i l l maximize t h e r e t u r n t o t h e body i t i s r e p o r t i n g t o , and a s s i s t i n g i n t h e i m p l e m e n t a t i o n o f t h e chosen r o u t e . I n our e f f o r t s t o respond t o g l o b a l c l i m a t e change, we must assume t h e f u t u r e s t a t e o f t h e p h y s i c a l environment t o be t u r b u l e n t — one w h i c h " e x h i b i t [ s ] v a r i a t i o n s o u t s i d e t h e range o f e x p e c t e d d i s t u r b a n c e s t h a t a f f e c t our economic and s o c i a l systems"."* I n t h e d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g p r o c e s s , p l a n n e r s and p o l i c y makers w i l l be i n c r e a s i n g l y r e q u i r e d t o i n c o r p o r a t e , and r e f i n e , b o t h t h e q u a l i t a t i v e and q u a n t i t a t i v e a s p e c t s o f t h e i r i n f o r m a t i o n i n t o t h e i r p l a n n i n g s t r a t e g i e s . I t i s i n t h i s e f f o r t t h a t p l a n n e r s e n t e r t h e r e a l m o f " f u z z y g a m b l i n g " as D r o r (1986) c a l l s i t because we cannot be a b s o l u t e l y c e r t a i n , o f t h e outcomes, i n t e n d e d o r o t h e r w i s e , o f our e f f o r t s t o manage p r e s e n t and f u t u r e s i t u a t i o n s . M o r l e y (1986), Op. C i t . ; page 4. M e r e l y (1986), I b i d . ; page 5. D r o r (1986), I b i d . ; page 24. CHAPTER FOUR INTEGRATING CLIMATE CHANGE IN PLANNING I n 1896, Swedish p h y s i c a l c h e m i s t Svante A r r h e n i u s p u b l i s h e d t h e f i r s t a n a l y s i s on p o t e n t i a l c l i m a t e change c a u s e d by i n d u s t r i a l e m i s s i o n s o f r a d i a t i v e l y a c t i v e gases. S i n c e t h a t t i m e t h e t h e o r y o f t h e greenhouse e f f e c t has e v o l v e d from c o n c e p t i o n , t o h y p o t h e s i s , t o t h e c u r r e n t consensus view t h a t i t i s b o t h r e a l and t h e p r o b a b l e d r i v i n g f o r c e f o r g l o b a l c l i m a t e change t o d a y (Ja e g e r , e t . a l . , 1988)."* A l t h o u g h u n c e r t a i n t i e s abound o v e r b o t h t h e magnitude and t i m i n g o f p o t e n t i a l c l i m a t e warming, more ambivalence s u r r o u n d s t h e p r o s p e c t s f o r c o - o p e r a t i v e l y r e s o l v i n g i t s g l o b a l i m p l i c a t i o n s t h r o u g h a c o m b i n a t i o n o f i n t e r n a t i o n a l , n a t i o n a l , and l o c a l i n i t i a t i v e s . I n t h i s r e v i e w o f g l o b a l c l i m a t e change and i t s i m p a c t s , such as s e a l e v e l r i s e , we have c o n s i d e r e d t h e p h y s i c a l phenomenon, i n v e s t i g a t e d i t s impacts f o r c o a s t a l and i s l a n d c o m m u n i t i e s , and examined t h e r o l e o f t h e p l a n n i n g and o f p l a n n e r s . The d i s c u s s i o n i n c l u d e d t h e c o m p l e x i t i e s i n v o l v e d , u n c e r t a i n t y i n p l a n n i n g , c o n s t r a i n t s t o p l a n n i n g , and t h e c h a l l e n g e o f c u r r e n t a m b i t i o n s t o a c h i e v e s u s t a i n a b l e development t h r o u g h a more i n t e g r a t e d approach o f c o a s t a l zone management. I n t h i s c o n c l u d i n g c h a p t e r we t a k e an o v e r v i e w o f p a s t , c u r r e n t , and proposed i n i t i a t i v e s t o i n c o r p o r a t e "* E r i k A r r h e n i u s and Thomas W. Wa l t z (1990), W o r l d Bank D i s c u s s i o n Paper "The Greenhouse E f f e c t . I m p l i c a t i o n s f o r Economic Development". (The World Bank; Washington, D . C ) . new i n f o r m a t i o n r e g a r d i n g t h e environment and development, and more s p e c i f i c a l l y t h a t o f c l i m a t e change i m p a c t s i n t h e c o n t e x t o f s u s t a i n a b l e development g o a l s . However, i t i s h e r e amongst t h e c u r r e n t e f f o r t s , t h a t t h e t r a d i t i o n a l r o l e o f p l a n n i n g and p l a n n e r s , and t h e o b j e c t i v e o f s u s t a i n a b l e development, a r e s u b j e c t e d t o s c r u t i n y and c h a l l e n g e d . What does t h e c h a l l e n g e o f s u s t a i n a b l e development r e a l l y say about t h e c u r r e n t s t a t e o f human v a l u e s and what does t h i s r e a l l y mean f o r p l a n n i n g ? T r a d i t i o n a l p l a n n i n g and t h e g o a l o f s u s t a i n a b l e development a r e s c r u t i n i z e d f o r t h e i r v a l i d i t y when examined a g a i n s t D r o r ' s c o n t e n t i o n t h a t " d e n i a l and maintenance" a r e t h e common r e s p o n s e s t o i s s u e s o f u n c e r t a i n t y and t h a t p l a n n i n g has e s s e n t i a l l y been a r e a c t i v e e x e r c i s e , f o r example i n i t s r o l e o f "problem s o l v e r " . I t i s f u r t h e r argued h e r e t h a t t h e r o l e o f p l a n n i n g as an a c t i v i t y , and t h e r o l e o f t h e i n d i v i d u a l p l a n n e r , s h o u l d be one o f " e n a b l e r " , an agent o f change who e n a b l e s i t s s o c i e t y t o be " p r o a c t i v e " t h r o u g h t h e e x e r c i s e o f p l a n n i n g f o r t h e f u t u r e r a t h e r t h a n one o f r e a c t i n g a g a i n s t u n i n t e n d e d outcomes o f p a s t p o l i c i e s and v a l u e s . i ) Current Planning I n i t i a t i v e s and Proposals to Address Climate Change, and Rising Sea Levels a) The International Community The 1970s - Stockholm. The Environment. I n 1972 t h e Stockholm C o n f e r e n c e marked t h e b e g i n n i n g o f a s i g n i f i c a n t change i n t h e p u b l i c ' s awareness o f t h e i n t e r -r e l a t e d n e s s between t h e p h y s i c a l environment and economic development. I t brought t o t h e f o r e t h e dangers o f i n d i s c r i m i n a t e development t o t h e n a t u r a l environment, and r e c o g n i z e d t h e l i m i t e d c a p a c i t y o f t h e e a r t h t o s u s t a i n c u r r e n t p a t t e r n s o f development and i n d e f i n i t e l y p r o v i d e e s s e n t i a l r e s o u r c e s i n t h e f a c e o f b l i n d p r o g r e s s . The e n v i r o n m e n t a l i s s u e s w h i c h emerged were seen, by t h e end o f t h e C o n f e r e n c e , as more t h a n j u s t a q u e s t i o n o f p o l l u t i o n and i s o l a t e d c a s e s o f d e g r a d a t i o n . The S t o c k h o l m Conference i n i t i a t e d a new, e v o l u t i o n a r y s t a g e i n humankind's a t t i t u d e toward t h e p h y s i c a l environment and i t s ' impact upon i t . By t h e e a r l y t h e 1970s t h e f a i l u r e s o f "development", p a r t i c u l a r l y i n t h e T h i r d World c o u n t r i e s , were becoming r a p i d l y a p p a r e n t . These c o u n t r i e s were caught i n a downward s p i r a l e x a c e r b a t e d d a i l y by i n c r e a s i n g human demands upon t h e p h y s i c a l e n v i r o n m e n t . The Green R e v o l u t i o n had f a i l e d t o f u l f i l i t s promise o f a t e c h n o l o g i c a l s o l u t i o n t o a p e o p l e - g e n e r a t e d p r o b l e m . I t had a l s o become c l e a r t h a t t h e T h i r d World n a t i o n s c o u l d n o t a f f o r d t h e " r e a c t and c u r e " p o l i c i e s adopted by t h e d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s . I n t h e p o o r e s t c o u n t r i e s , e n v i r o n m e n t a l i s s u e s were d i r e c t l y r e l a t e d t o t h e b a s i c p r e o c c u p a t i o n s o f p e o p l e t o f i n d f o o d , f u e l , and s h e l t e r . The 1980s - The Emergence of Climate Issues. Seven y e a r s a f t e r t h e Stockholm C o n f e r e n c e , i n 1979, t h e F i r s t W o r l d C l i m a t e Conference was convened i n Geneva by t h e World M e t e o r o l o g i c a l O r g a n i z a t i o n (WMO), i n c o l l a b o r a t i o n w i t h o t h e r U n i t e d N a t i o n o r g a n i z a t i o n s and t h e I n t e r n a t i o n a l C o u n c i l of S c i e n t i f i c Unions (ICSU) . L a t e r t h a t same y e a r , t h e W o r l d C l i m a t e Programme was e s t a b l i s h e d by t h e WMO. A t t h a t t i m e t h e new World C l i m a t e Programme members d e c l a r e d , "... there i s an immediate need f o r n a t i o n s t o u t i l i z e e x i s t i n g knowledge o f c l i m a t e and c l i m a t e v a r i a t i o n s i n t h e p l a n n i n g o f s o c i a l and economic development"."' S i n c e 1972 t h e volume o f s c i e n t i f i c p u b l i c a t i o n s , s o c i a l d e b ates, and economic arguments have been as e n d l e s s as t h e problems of development t h e m s e l v e s . I n 1988 t h e World M e t e o r o l o g i c a l O r g a n i z a t i o n (WMO) and t h e U n i t e d N a t i o n s Environment Program (UNEP) j o i n t l y c r e a t e d t h e I n t e r g o v e r n m e n t a l P a n e l on C l i m a t e Change (IPCC). I t s mandate was to a s s e s s t h e s c i e n t i f i c u n d e r s t a n d i n g o f c l i m a t e change, de t e r m i n e t h e e n v i r o n m e n t a l and s o c i o - e c o n o m i c consequences, and f o r m u l a t e p o s s i b l e r e s p o n s e s t r a t e g i e s t o l i m i t o r r e d u c e t h e impacts.'^" A t p r e s e n t a p p r o x i m a t e l y f i f t y n a t i o n s p a r t i c i p a t e d i n t h e IPCC Bureau, t h e i r e f f o r t s d i v i d e d i n t o t h r e e w o r k i n g g r o u p s . I n August 1990, t h e IPCC p u b l i s h e d i t s f i r s t r e p o r t w h i c h p l a i n l y s t a t e d , "we cannot continue with business as usual", and u r g e d t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l community t o t a k e a c t i o n . The IPCC a l s o recommended "' P r o f e s s o r G.O.P. Ob a s i (1992). C1imate Change. Environment and Development. World l e a d e r s ' v i e w p o i n t s . (World M e t e o r o l o g i c a l O r g a n i z a t i o n ; Geneva); Foreword, pg. v i i . 120 Environment Canada "Towards an I n t e r n a t i o n a l A c c o r d on C l i m a t e Change" i n t h e Green P l a n (August, 1991); ( p r e p a r e d by A t m o s p h e r i c Environment S e r v i c e , Downsview, O n t a r i o ) . t h a t an i n t e r n a t i o n a l a c c o r d be de v e l o p e d on c l i m a t e change. The p r o p o s e d C l i m a t e Change C o n v e n t i o n "would be s i m i l a r t o the e x i s t i n g i n t e r n a t i o n a l agreement t o p r o t e c t t h e ozone l a y e r " as s e t ou t i n t h e 1985 Vi e n n a C o n v e n t i o n , "and would s e t down, as a minimum, a framework o f g e n e r a l p r i n c i p l e s and o b l i g a t i o n s " . ' ^ ' Thus, t h e Framework Convention f o r C l i m a t e Change was t a b l e d a t t h e 1992 U n i t e d N a t i o n s Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED), E a r t h Summit, i n R i o de J a n i e r o , B r a z i l . The 1990s - United Nations' Earth Summit. I n t h e 1990s t h e i s s u e o f e c o l o g i c a l d i s e q u i l i b r i u m i s no l o n g e r r e s t r i c t e d t o d i s c u s s i o n s o f j u s t economic development a c t i v i t i e s b u t e x t e n d t o i n c l u d e i s s u e s o f e q u i t y , s e c u r i t y , and e c o l o g i c a l s u s t a i n a b i l i t y , most e s p e c i a l l y so f o r t h e s m a l l i s l a n d d e v e l o p i n g s t a t e s (SIDS). On a p o s i t i v e n o t e , t h e i s s u e o f g l o b a l c l i m a t e change has, a t t h e v e r y l e a s t , succeeded i n h a r n e s s i n g g r e a t e r p u b l i c awareness o f t h e i n t e r r e l a t e d n e s s o f p h y s i c a l e n v i r o n m e n t and human a f f a i r s . The c a p a b i l i t y o f g l o b a l c l i m a t e change t o undermine both c u r r e n t and f u t u r e economic and s o c i a l p r o s p e r i t y has perhaps succeeded i n awakening t h e " s l e e p i n g g i a n t " — t h e u n c e r t a i n t y s u r r o u n d i n g t h e s u s t a i n a b i l i t y o f human a c t i v i t i e s on t h e p l a n e t . E c h o i n g t h e s e n t i m e n t s f i r s t espoused a t t h e Stockholm •21 Environment Canada (1991) , "Towards an I n t e r n a t i o n a l A c c o r d on C l i m a t e Change"; I b i d . C o n f e r e n c e , and l a t e r i n t h e B r u n d t l a n d R e p o r t , Our Common F u t u r e , t h e U n i t e d N a t i o n s ' E a r t h Summit attempted once a g a i n t o g a r n e r w o r l d - w i d e s u p p o r t and consensus on t h e p e r v a s i v e e c o l o g i c a l problems f a c i n g a l l s o c i e t i e s as a r e s u l t o f human a c t i v i t i e s . I n June 1992, as c o u n t r i e s convened a t t h e U n i t e d N a t i o n s ' F i r s t E a r t h Summit i n R i o de J a n i e r o , t h e hope was h e l d out t h a t t h i s would be " t h e " i n t e r n a t i o n a l e v ent of t h e c e n t u r y , f i n a l l y p u t t i n g i n p l a c e t h e groundwork f o r s u s t a i n a b l e development and t h e p r o t e c t i o n o f t h e g l o b a l environment t h r o u g h a s e r i e s o f i n t e r n a t i o n a l l y s a n c t i o n e d c o n v e n t i o n s t o p r o t e c t and c o n t r o l t h e use o f t h e e a r t h ' s d i m i n i s h i n g n a t u r a l r e s o u r c e s . The 1992 UNCED Framework C o n v e n t i o n on C l i m a t e Change was s i g n e d a t t h e E a r t h Summit c o m m i t t i n g many o f t h e w o r l d ' s n a t i o n s t o p r o t e c t t h e w o r l d c l i m a t e system t h r o u g h a s e r i e s o f s p e c i f i c measures. F o r t h e d e v e l o p e d n a t i o n s t h e c o n v e n t i o n ' s p r e s c r i b e d measures i n c l u d e d r e d u c i n g e m i s s i o n s , h e l p i n g d e v e l o p i n g n a t i o n s manage t h e i r e m i s s i o n s w h i l e c o n t i n u i n g t o d e v e l o p , p r o t e c t i n g c a r b o n s i n k s ( i n c l u d i n g f o r e s t s , oceans and a n y t h i n g e l s e t h a t removes c a r b o n from t h e atmosphere) , and a l o n g l i s t o f r e q u i r e m e n t s f o r i n v e n t o r i e s , m o n i t o r i n g and r e p o r t i n g . I n r e c o g n i t i o n o f v e r y s p e c i a l c i r c u m s t a n c e s o f t h e s m a l l i s l a n d d e v e l o p i n g s t a t e s (SIDS) i n meeting t h e c h a l l e n g e s of G l e n n R o l l a n s , "UNCED C o n v e n t i o n Change i n t h e Weather, Changes i n t h e Wind", i n Environment Views ( A l b e r t a Environment; Edmonton). V o l . 15, No. 3; W i n t e r 1992; page 15. s u s t a i n a b l e development i n t h e f a c e o f e c o l o g i c a l and economic f r a g i l i t y and v u l n e r a b i l i t y , Acrenda 21 n e g o t i a t e d a t t h e R i o Summit recommended t h a t a g l o b a l c o n f e r e n c e be convened t o a t t empt t o a d d r e s s t h e c o n c e r n s . I n A p r i l , 1994 SIDS w i l l convene i n Barbados f o r t h e G l o b a l Conference on t h e S u s t a i n a b l e Development of S m a l l I s l a n d D e v e l o p i n g S t a t e s . I t s ' o b j e c t i v e i s t o " d e f i n e a number of s p e c i f i c a c t i o n s and p o l i c i e s r e l a t i n g t o e n v ironment and development p l a n n i n g t o be u n d e r t a k e n by [ S I D S ] , w i t h t h e a s s i s t a n c e o f t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l community, t o f a c i l i t a t e [ t h e i r ] s u s t a i n a b l e development".'^^ T h i s c o n f e r e n c e f o l l o w s e a r l i e r work u n d e r t a k e n t h r o u g h o u t 1993 i n t h e P r e p a r a t o r y Committee s e s s i o n s , one i n P o r t V i l a , Vanuata f o r SIDS o f t h e P a c i f i c and I n d i a n Oceans, and t h e o t h e r i n P o r t - o f - S p a i n , T r i n i d a d and Tobago, f o r SIDS i n t h e C a r i b b e a n , M e d i t e r r a n e a n and A t l a n t i c o ceans. "Each RTM d e v e l o p e d [ i n 1993] a number o f p l a n s , p o l i c i e s , programs and bases f o r a c t i o n f o r s u s t a i n a b l e development a t t h e n a t i o n a l , r e g i o n a l and i n t e r n a t i o n a l l e v e l s . " ' ^ W i t h a mandate t o "examine s t r a t e g i e s f o r n a t i o n a l and i n t e r n a t i o n a l a c t i o n w i t h a v i e w t o a r r i v i n g a t s p e c i f i c agreements and commitments by Governments and by i n t e r g o v e r n m e n t a l o r g a n i z a t i o n s f o r d e f i n e d a c t i v i t i e s t o promote s u s t a i n e d and '^^ J o h n W. Ashe and Mark D. G r i f f i t h i n "The Barbados C o n f e r e n c e f o r t h e S u s t a i n a b l e Development o f S m a l l I s l a n d D e v e l o p i n g S t a t e s (SIDS): P o s s i b l e Outcomes" i n E c o d e c i s i o n V o l . 11 ( J a n u a r y 1 9 9 4); page 55. '^'' Ashe and G r i f f i t h ; I b i d . ; page 55. e n v i r o n m e n t a l l y sound development" o f SIDS a t t h e Barbados C o n f e r e n c e , i t i s hoped t h a t a t l o n g l a s t t h e s e n a t i o n s w i l l g a i n t h e much needed p o l i t i c a l and economic c l o u t i n t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l c o m m u n i t y . F u r t h e r m o r e , Ashe and G r i f f i t h r e p o r t t h a t an i m p o r t a n t s h i f t i n f o c u s from s h o r t - t e r m and i n t e r i m g o a l s t o a l o n g - t e r m p l a n n i n g s t r a t e g y w i l l be r e q u i r e d s i n c e much o f t h e e n v i r o n m e n t a l d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g o c c u r r i n g i n SIDS a r e done on an ad-hoc b a s i s . A l s o on a p o s i t i v e n o t e , p r o g r e s s i n t h e r i g h t d i r e c t i o n has been t h e f o r m a t i o n o f a "53-member Commission on S u s t a i n a b l e Development (CSD), a s u b s i d i a r y body o f t h e Economic and S o c i a l C o u n c i l (ECOSOC), which has been c h a r g e d w i t h t h e t a s k o f e n s u r i n g e f f e c t i v e f o l l o w - u p t o t h e U n i t e d N a t i o n s C o n f e r e n c e on Environment and Development (UNCED) by m o n i t o r i n g t h e i m p l e m e n t a t i o n o f Agenda 21 a t a l l l e v e l s " . ' ^ * to) National Planning Strategies On a n a t i o n a l l e v e l , e f f o r t s t o a d d r e s s g l o b a l c l i m a t e change and i t s a s s o c i a t e d i m p a c t s such as sea l e v e l r i s e , has been r e s t r i c t e d p r i m a r i l y t o p l a n n i n g i n t h e form o f p o l i c y development — i t s a n a l y s i s , and i m p l e m e n t a t i o n i n i t s programs. F o r i n s t a n c e , t h e C a n a d i a n F e d e r a l Government has u n d e r t a k e n a s e r i e s o f p l a n n e d p o l i c i e s t o a d d r e s s t h e im p a c t s o f e x p e c t e d g l o b a l warming, as o u t l i n e d i n t h e 1991 A S t a t e o f Environment R e p o r t , U n d e r s t a n d i n g A t m o s p h e r i c Change, a l o n g w i t h t h e F e d e r a l M i n i s t r y o f '25 Ashe and G r i f f i t h (1994), I b i d . ; page 56. Ashe and G r i f f i t h (1994), I b i d ; page 56. E n v i r o n m e n t ' s more r e c e n t i n i t i a t i v e , t h e Green P l a n . These documents p r o v i d e t h e b a s i s o f i n f o r m a t i o n and p o l i c i e s by which t h e C a n a d i a n government i n t e n d s t o implement c o n t r o l s , and m i t i g a t e t h e most n e g a t i v e consequences o f a t m o s p h e r i c change. Canada's Green P l a n a l r e a d y goes beyond r e d u c t i o n s i n e m i s s i o n s s e t out i n E a r t h Summit C l i m a t e C o n v e n t i o n , a i m i n g f o r s t a b i l i z a t i o n o f greenhouse-gas e m i s s i o n s a t 1990 l e v e l s by t h e y e a r 2000 and, by t h e end o f O c t o b e r 1992 a CASA s e c r e t a r i a t was a s s i g n e d t o t a c k l e "about a dozen p r i o r i t y i s s u e s , i n c l u d i n g e v a l u a t i n g impediments t o ene r g y e f f i c i e n c y , r e v i e w i n g t h e b u i l d i n g code, and r e v i e w i n g t h e use o f f o s s i l f u e l s f o r t h e g e n e r a t i o n o f e l e c t r i c i t y " . ' ^ ' I n c o n j u n c t i o n w i t h t h e Green P l a n , t h e Canadian I n t e r n a t i o n a l Development Agency (CIDA) a l s o r e l e a s e d i t s updated p o l i c y mandate, P o l i c v f o r E n v i r o n m e n t a l S u s t a i n a b i l i t y i n J a n u a r y 1992 t o i n c o r p o r a t e t h e g r o w i n g c o m p l e x i t y o f e n v i r o n m e n t a l c o n c e r n s i n t o i t s o v e r s e a s programs and p r o j e c t s . E x i s t i n g CIDA p o l i c i e s have a l r e a d y made e f f o r t s t o i n c o r p o r a t e t h e c o n c e p t o f s u s t a i n a b l e development i n p r i n c i p l e , u s u a l l y t h r o u g h t h e r e q u i r e m e n t o f e n v i r o n m e n t a l impact assessments ( s i n c e 1986) i n t o i t s programs and p r o j e c t s . In g e n e r a l t h e de v e l o p e d n a t i o n s have p l a c e d a heavy emphasis I a n Burn o f A l b e r t Energy quoted i n G l e n R o l l a n s "UNCED C o n v e n t i o n . Change i n t h e weather, changes i n t h e w i n d " i n Environment News. V o l . 15, No. 3, W i n t e r 1992. ( A l b e r t a E n v i r o n m e n t ; Canada); page 15. on r e s e a r c h , r e s e a r c h r e p o r t i n g , and s p e c i a l committee work, much of w h i c h has been seen as d e l a y t a c t i c s by c r i t i c s who a d v o c a t e a more p r o a c t i v e and immediate r e s p o n s e . W h i l e s i m i l a r t y p e s o f i n i t i a t i v e s a r e b e i n g d e v e l o p e d and implemented around t h e w o r l d , t h e r e a r e s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e s between t h e e f f o r t s o f d e v e l o p e d n a t i o n s v e r s u s t h o s e o f t h e s t i l l d e v e l o p i n g n a t i o n s . These two v e r y d i f f e r e n t economic, s o c i a l , and c u l t u r a l groups s h a r e common e n v i r o n m e n t a l c o n c e r n s on a g l o b a l s c a l e , such as g l o b a l warming t r e n d s , however, as s t a t e d e a r l i e r i n C h a p t e r 2, t h e i m p a c t s o f such and t h e a b i l i t y t o r espond and/or p l a n f o r such changes d i f f e r s u b s t a n t i a l l y . F o r example, t h e OECD member c o u n t r i e s have p r e d o m i n a t e l y chosen among a v a r i e t y o f economic and market approaches t o c u r b unwanted b e h a v i o u r , i n a d d i t i o n t o i m p l e m e n t i n g c o a s t a l zone management p l a n s ( r e p l e t e w i t h t h e n e c e s s a r y t e c h n o l o g y and e x p e r t s t a f f ) . F o r t h e s e c o u n t r i e s i t i s p r e d o m i n a t e l y a m a t t e r o f m a t e r i a l r e s t r a i n t and f o r e s i g h t , s i n c e d i s a s t e r s a r e n o t y e t r e g u l a r l y a p p e a r i n g upon t h e i r d o o r s t e p . However, i f r e c e n t e v e n t s i n t h e c o a s t a l zone r e g i o n s o f t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s i s any i n d i c a t i o n o f what i s coming, perhaps many o f t h e d e v e l o p e d n a t i o n s w i l l heed t h e wake-up c a l l . By c o n t r a s t , i n t h e s t i l l d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s t h e r e s p o n s e i s g e n e r a l l y an extreme o f "our t u r n t o d e v e l o p as we see f i t " o r one of c r i s i s because t h e i r l a n d base and f r e s h w a t e r r e s o u r c e s a r e r a p i d l y e r o d i n g and e c o l o g i c a l d i s a s t e r s a r e r o u t i n e l y v i s i t e d upon them i n t h e form o f f l o o d s , h u r r i c a n e s , t s u n a m i s , e t c . T h i s i s why, t h e s m a l l i s l a n d n a t i o n s a r e j o i n i n g f o r c e s t o f i g h t f o r t h e i r r i g h t s a t an i n t e r n a t i o n a l l e v e l . Ashe and G r i f f i t h r e p o r t t h a t "To implement s u s t a i n a b l e development p o l i c i e s and p r a c t i c e s , SIDS w i l l now have t o d e v e l o p , adopt and implement medium- and l o n g - t e r m p l a n s t h a t n o t o n l y i n t e g r a t e t h e m u l t i p l e u s e s o f l i m i t e d r e s o u r c e s , b u t i d e n t i f y t h e t y p e s o f development c o m p a t i b l e w i t h t h e i r l i m i t e d endowments".'^* The s m a l l i s l a n d d e v e l o p i n g s t a t e s (SIDS) have i d e n t i f i e d s e v e r a l p r i o r i t y a r e a s which i n c l u d e i n t e g r a t e d c o a s t a l zone J . management, waste management, c o n s e r v a t i o n o f f r e s h w a t e r r e s o u r c e s , t r a d e , f i n a n c i a l mechanisms, i n f o r m a t i o n , t e c h n o l o g y , human r e s o u r c e s development, l e g a l i n s t r u m e n t s and r e l e v a n t i n t e r n a t i o n a l mechanisms.'^' Ashe and G r i f f i t h r e p o r t s i x main a c t i v i t i e s d e s i g n e d t o a d d r e s s t h e s e i s s u e s i n c l u d e : a S m a l l I s l a n d D e v e l o p i n g I n f o r m a t i o n Network (SIDSNET); R e g i o n a l S u s t a i n a b l e Development C e n t r e s ; a S m a l l I s l a n d D e v e l o p i n g S t a t e s T e c h n i c a l A s s i s t a n c e Programme (SIDS/TAP); a n a t i o n a l D i s a s t e r Emergency Fund; n e g o t i a t i o n f o r more e q u i t a b l e terms o f t r a d e ; and t h e a c q u i s i t i o n o f new f i n a n c i a l r e s o u r c e s from b i l a t e r a l and m u l t i l a t e r a l donors. e) L o c a l P l a n n i n g Responses As d i s c u s s e d i n t h e OECD r e p o r t i n C h a p t e r 3, many, but not a l l , o f t h e OECD member c o u n t r i e s have adopted c o a s t a l zone Ashe and G r i f f i t h (1994), Op. C i t ; page 55. *^ Ashe and G r i f f i t h (1994), I b i d . ; p a g e 55. management programs, some i n t e g r a t i n g n a t i o n a l p o l i c i e s and o b j e c t i v e s w i t h l o c a l c o n c erns and p r i o r i t i e s . W h i l e t h e N e t h e r l a n d s has e x p e r i e n c e d g r e a t s u c c e s s w i t h i t s s e a w a l l s t o c o r r a l t h e s e a , t h i s i s not a v i a b l e o p t i o n f o r many c o a s t a l c o m m u n i t i e s . I n c e (1990) s t a t e s t h a t w h i l e , ... i t may be p o s s i b l e t o r e d uce t h e c o s t by c o n c e n t r a t i n g e f f o r t s on cheaper o p t i o n s t h a n m a s s i v e sea d e f e n c e s , i n c l u d i n g t h e r e v i v a l o f o l d t e c h n o l o g i e s f o r b u i l d i n g and f o o d p r o d u c t i o n ... [ t ] h e s e a r e o f t e n d e s i g n e d t o cope w i t h f l o o d i n g i n s t e a d o f s h u t t i n g i t o u t . I n t h e same way, i t may be p o s s i b l e t o c h a n n e l f l o o d i n g t o encourage l a r g e a r e a s o f l a n d near sea l e v e l t o s i l t up r a t h e r t h a n t r y t o s h u t out t h e sea.'^° As I n c e p o i n t s o u t , a c t i o n s and p l a n s l i k e t h e s e "depend c r u c i a l l y upon T h i r d World c o u n t r i e s h a v i n g enough t i m e and i n f o r m a t i o n t o d e v e l o p c o h e r e n t p l a n s f o r d e a l i n g w i t h r i s i n g sea l e v e l s " . He s t a t e s t h a t a t p r e s e n t e s t i m a t e s o f t h e greenhouse e f f e c t , t h e T h i r d World c o u n t r i e s have up t o f i f t y y e a r s t o p r e p a r e f o r t h e w o r s t e f f e c t s . P i e r V e l l i n g a o f D e l f t H y d r a u l i c s , N e t h e r l a n d s , "warns a g a i n s t common human measures, such as b u i l d i n g sea w a l l s , r i v e r embankments and o t h e r d e f e n c e s a g a i n s t t h e r i s i n g w a t e r " , s t a t i n g t h a t once begun, t h e y w i l l l i k e l y become h a r d t o d e a l w i t h , r e q u i r i n g f u r t h e r b u i l d i n g , r e s t o r a t i o n , h i g h e r d i k e s , and w h i l e t e c h n i c a l l y f e a s i b l e i n most c a s e s , a l s o r e q u i r i n g economic, s o c i a l and a d m i n i s t r a t i v e c o n d i t i o n s t h a t p r o b a b l y cannot be met i n many ca s e s . " ' I n c e (1990), O p . C i t . ; pages 60-61. I n c e (1990), I b i d . ; pages 58-60. I n h i s a r t i c l e , "UNCED Co n v e n t i o n . Changes i n t h e weather, changes i n t h e wind" G l e n R o l l a n s (1992) r e p o r t s t h a t " I n t h e absence o f an i n t e r n a t i o n a l system o f economic i n s t r u m e n t s , j u r i s d i c t i o n s t h a t s e t tough e m i s s i o n - r e d u c t i o n t a r g e t s may [ q u i c k l y ] f i n d t h e m s e l v e s on t h e moral h i g h ground a t t h e c o s t of a c o m p e t i t i v e marketplace".'^^ I n O n t a r i o , f o r example. Dr. Giacomo Capobianco, p r e s i d e n t and CEO o f t h e C o a l A s s o c i a t i o n o f Canada s t a t e s " t h e y have s e t ... a 20 p e r c e n t r e d u c t i o n by 2000... [ b u t ] t h e y h a v e n ' t come t o g r i p s w i t h t h e f a c t t h a t a 20 p e r c e n t r e d u c t i o n i s b l o o d y p a i n f u l . By c o n t r a s t , t h e C l e a r A i r S t r a t e g y s a y s , ^ U n t i l we know how much i t ' s g o i n g t o c o s t , we're n o t g o i n g t o commit t o a n y t h i n g " . "'^ ^ G l e n R o l l a n s f u r t h e r r e p o r t s t h a t t h e n e g o t i a t o r s o f t h e c l i m a t e c o n v e n t i o n " l e f t o u t s p e c i f i c t a r g e t s f o r r e d u c i n g e m i s s i o n s o f greenhouse g a s e s , on t h e i n s i s t e n c e of t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s " and t o many o b s e r v e r s , t h i s r e m a i n s " i t s f a t a l f l a w " . " " G l e n R o l l a n s (1994), I b i d ; q u o t i n g Doug B r u c h e t o f t h e Ca n a d i a n P e t r o l e u m I n d u s t r y who s a t on t h e a d v i s o r y committees t o b o t h t h e C l e a n A i r S t r a t e g y f o r A l b e r t a (CASA) and t h e Canadian D e l e g a t i o n t o t h e c l i m a t e change c o n v e n t i o n n e g o t i a t i o n s ; page 16. G l e n R o l l a n s (1992), Op. C i t . ; page 17. Table 2 Convention o n Climate Ciiange: CO2 Emissions Reduction Schedule Country Target Australia Interim goal: stabilization at 1988 levels by year 2000, and 20% reduction by year 2005. Austria 20% reduction by year 2005. Canada Stabilize emissions at 1990 levels by year 2000. France Stabilize CO2 emissions at 1990 levels by year 2005. Germany 30% reduction in CO2 emissions by year 2005. Japan Stabilize at 1990 "per capita levels" by 1995. Netherlands Stabilization target of 1989-90 levels by 1995, with 3 to 5% reduction by year 2000. New Zealand Reduction of 20% from 1990 levels by year 2000. Norway Stabilization during the 1990s. Sweden Annual reduction of 5 to 10 million tonnes CO2. United Kingdom Stabilize CO2 emissions at 1990 levels by year 2005. United States No commitment on CO2. S o u r c e : G l e n R o l l a n s (1992), "UNCED C o n v e n t i o n . Changes i n t h e weather, changes i n t h e wind" i n Environment News. ( A l b e r t a Environment; Canada); page 15. I n h i s book. Our Common Seas. C o a s t s i n C r i s i s . H i n r i c h s e n ( 1 9 90), b e l i e v e s t h a t t h e a t t e n t i o n c u r r e n t l y b e i n g g e n e r a t e d by d i s c u s s i o n s on c l i m a t e change and r i s i n g sea l e v e l s i s a p o s i t i v e one, and I f t h i s o b s e s s i o n w i t h t h e l i k e l y i m p a c t s o f s e a l e v e l r i s e - e s p e c i a l l y f o r l o w - l y i n g i s l a n d s and c o r a l a t o l l s - g e n e r a t e s b e t t e r management o f c o a s t a l a r e a s , so much t h e b e t t e r . I t i s the only coastal issue, for the moment, which i s capable of arousing a t r u l y i n t e r n a t i o n a l response. One of the best r e s u l t s that could emerge from a l l t h e c o n c e r n o v e r c l i m a t e change and s w o l l e n seas would be the development of workable coastal management plans f o r a l l developing countries with a coastline. P r o p e r , w e l l -c o n c e i v e d and ex e c u t e d c o a s t a l zone management s t r a t e g i e s would p e r m i t b i l l i o n s o f pe o p l e t o u t i l i z e t h e i r r e s o u r c e s b e t t e r and g i v e them t i m e t o p r e p a r e f o r r i s i n g s e a s . Such plans would also allow coastal populations to b u i l d f o r a sustainable future. Perhaps more importantly, they might help give m i l l i o n s of the poorest people, those constantly l i v i n g on the edge of s u r v i v a l , a sustainable present! [Emphasis added]. Thus, t o i n c o r p o r a t e c l i m a t e change i n f o r m a t i o n i n t o our d a i l y p r a c t i c e s , b u s i n e s s and p e r s o n a l , r e q u i r e s no l e s s t h a n a fundamental revamping o f how we c u r r e n t l y v i e w , and o p e r a t e i n our w o r l d . I t r e q u i r e s a r e s t r u c t u r i n g o f our s o c i a l i n s t i t u t i o n s , b o t h p u b l i c and p r i v a t e t o en a b l e us t o i n c o r p o r a t e d a t a i n a d i f f e r e n t c o n t e x t , and d e s i g n more r e a l i s t i c s o l u t i o n s t o g l o b a l e n v i r o n m e n t a l i s s u e s . E n v i r o n m e n t a l i s t Mia Benjamin-Robinson s t a t e s , " I would l i k e t o be a b l e t o say, "Here a r e f i v e t h i n g s . E v e r y community do them and you've g o t no problem." But i t r e a l l y does c a l l f o r a much deeper mindset change t h a n j u s t s i m p l y h a v i n g a composter.""* C a l g a r y ' s Margaret D u r n i n , o f t h e Development E d u c a t i o n C o - o r d i n a t i n g C o u n c i l o f A l b e r t a , c o n c u r s : A s u s t a i n a b i l i t y model asks p e o p l e t o say, "Okay, what i s t h e g r e a t e r good — g r e a t e r t h a n j u s t me? What's my r o l e i n t h e community?" And i f p e o p l e o n l y have t h e energy t o s t a r t on t h e i n d i v i d u a l l e v e l o f change, o f c h a n g i n g l i f e s t y l e s and h a b i t s , and maybe g o i n g i n t o t h e w o r k p l a c e and i n f l u e n c i n g t h a t , t h a t ' s g r e a t . But I t h i n k we have "* Don H i n r i c h s e n (1990), Our Common Seas. C o a s t s i n C r i s i s ( E a r t h s c a n P u b l i c a t i o n s L t d . ; London i n a s s o c i a t i o n w i t h t h e U n i t e d N a t i o n s Environment Programme, N a i r o b i ) ; pages 19 and 21. "* S c o t t R o l l a n s (1992), " A l b e r t a a t UNCED. B r i n g i n g R i o Home" i n Environment News, V o l . 15, No. 3 ( A l b e r t a E nvironment; Canada); page 20. t o l e a r n t o f o c u s a l o t more on w o r k i n g t o g e t h e r t o p r o d u c e change. You can have an e n t i r e c o u n t r y r e c y c l i n g , and n e v e r see a r e a l change i n how f o r e s t r y p o l i c y works ... I f y o u ' r e n o t w i l l i n g t o g e t out t h e r e and be t h e a c t i v i s t , t h e n you can s u p p o r t t h e p e o p l e who a r e . Make some d o n a t i o n s , g i v e i t a p r i o r i t y so t h a t you're s u p p o r t i n g some p e o p l e who a r e d o i n g p o l i c y - o r i e n t e d work, because i t ' s t h e h a r d e s t t h i n g t o fund r a i s e f o r and i t ' s super i m p o r t a n t . "' E n v i r o n m e n t and development workers b e l i e v e " i t ' s i m p o r t a n t t o see y o u r s e l f as p a r t o f a g r a s s r o o t s movement, and n o t j u s t as a r a d i c a l w o r k i n g i n i s o l a t i o n " . " * i i ) Planning as i f today mattered I n h i s a r t i c l e , "Myths and R e a l i t i e s o f G l o b a l C l i m a t e Change" James B r u c e (1991) s t a t e s t h a t . The p r oblem of g l o b a l warming i s r e a l and r e c o g n i z e d by a s t r o n g s c i e n t i f i c consensus. I t has been c a l l e d t h e most s e r i o u s g l o b a l e n v i r o n m e n t a l t h r e a t o f t h i s o r any o t h e r g e n e r a t i o n . I n s p i t e o f t h i s r e a l i t y , t h e r e a r e s i g n i f i c a n t i n s t i t u t i o n a l b a r r i e r s and o t h e r d i f f i c u l t i e s , i n b o t h d e v e l o p e d and d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s , t o p u t ... a program i n p l a c e . As a Vermont, USA mayor has s a i d , " I t i s e a s i e r t o t h i n k g l o b a l l y t h a n t o a c t l o c a l l y " . " ' D u r i n g an i n t e r n a t i o n a l workshop on energy and c l i m a t e h e l d i n t h e F e d e r a l R e p u b l i c o f Germany (1980), t h e P r e f a c e t o i t s f i n d i n g s c o n c l u d e d t h a t , ... i n t h e decades ahead, decisions have to be made t o "' M a r g a r e t D u r n i n quoted i n S c o t t R o l l a n s (1992), I b i d ; pages 20-21. S c o t t R o l l a n s (1992); I b i d . ; page 21. "' James P. Bruce (1991), "Myths and R e a l i t i e s o f G l o b a l C l i m a t e Change", i n E c o d e c i s i o n , V o l . 1 (1991); page 92. r e d u c e o r a v e r t t h e i m p a c t s o f c l i m a t i c change before a l l the answers have been obtained. A l t h o u g h a c l i m a t e impact a ssessment program i s f a c e d w i t h many u n c e r t a i n t i e s , i t n e v e r t h e l e s s has to be started now, because society cannot a f f o r d to wait u n t i l a l l variables are quantified to the s a t i s f a c t i o n of a l l parties involved.''*" [Emphasis added] S c h n e i d e r f u r t h e r s t a t e s t h a t " i f such s t u d i e s a r e n o t made, t h e n society w i l l merely "perform the experiment" of unprepared, "post-c r i s i s " adaptation w i t h l i t t l e l e a d t i m e t o m i n i m i z e p r e v e n t a b l e damage o r maximize a v a i l a b l e advantage""" As B o u l d i n g so a p t l y e x p r e s s e d i n h e r work. P e o p l e d o n ' t j u s t adapt t o change, t h e y c r e a t e new r e a l i t i e s " ... "When i n t e r e s t s c o n f l i c t i n t h e f a c e o f e n v i r o n m e n t a l and r e s o u r c e changes, whether between h o u s e h o l d s o r n a t i o n s , what d e t e r m i n e s t h e development o f s k i l l s o f c o n f l i c t r e s o l u t i o n r a t h e r t h a n a r e s o r t t o v i o l e n c e ? What i s t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p between s o c i e t a l v u l n e r a b i l i t y and s o c i e t a l c r e a t i v i t y ? . ' * ^ T h i s b r i n g s us back t o our e a r l i e r d i s c u s s i o n on g l o b a l s e c u r i t y i s s u e s i n r e l a t i o n t o c l i m a t e change i m p a c t s . A c c o r d i n g t o Dr. M a r t i n H o l d g a t e , head o f lUCN, who c h a i r s t h e Commonwealth Group of E x p e r t s on C l i m a t e Change and Sea L e v e l R i s e , " t h e s i z e o f t h i s t h r e a t t o T h i r d World c o u n t r i e s p o i n t s t o a b a s i c i m b a l a n c e i n t h e way t h e w o r l d w i l l d e a l w i t h t h e g l o b a l warming problem. He t o l d t h e 1989 Commonwealth S m a l l S t a t e s C o n f e r e n c e on S e a - l e v e l R i s e I n Chen, B o u l d i n g , and S c h n e i d e r , E d i t o r s (1983), S o c i a l S c i e n c e R e s e a r c h and C l i m a t e Change, c i t i n g Bach, W., P a n k r a t h , J . and W i l l i a m s , J . (eds) 1980, I n t e r a c t i o n s o f Energy and C l i m a t e . (D. R e i d e l P u b l i . Co., D o r d r e c h t , H o l l a n d ; page V I I I ) ; page 13. S c h n e i d e r (1983), I b i d ; page 14. '*2 E l i s e B o u l d i n g (1983), " S e t t i n g New R e s e a r c h Agendas: A S o c i a l S c i e n t i s t ' s View" i n R o b e r t S. Chen, E l i s e B o u l d i n g and Stephen S c h n e i d e r , E d i t o r s . S o c i a l S c i e n c e R e s e a r c h and C l i m a t e Change (D. R e i d e l P u b l i s h i n g Company; D o r d r e c h t , B o s t o n ) ; page 8. t h a t the t r a n s i t i o n a l costs of slowing or h a l t i n g the emissions which cause global warming w i l l f a l l mainly on the developed world".''*3 R e g a r d l e s s o f whether t h i s b e l i e f i s a c c u r a t e o r n o t , i t i m p l i e s t h e g e n e r a t i o n o f f u r t h e r t e n s i o n s i n i n t e r n a t i o n a l r e l a t i o n s r e g a r d i n g d i s c u s s i o n s o f development and e q u i t y i s s u e s . I n t e r v i e w s w i t h w o r l d l e a d e r s i n c l u d e d i n t h e Wo r l d M e t e r o l o g i c a l O r g a n i z a t i o n ' s p u b l i c a t i o n . C l i m a t e Change. Environment and Development. World l e a d e r s ' v i e w p o i n t s . (1992) c o v e r e d a wide range o f t o p i c s i n c l u d i n g t h e i m p l i c a t i o n s o f c l i m a t e change, ozone l a y e r d e p l e t i o n , a i r p o l l u t i o n and o t h e r r e l a t e d i s s u e s , s o c i o - e c o n o m i c development programmes, and a c t i v i t i e s u n d e r t a k e n t o d a t e o r p r o p o s e d t o m i t i g a t e t h e p o t e n t i a l a d v e r s e e f f e c t s . I n t h e Foreword, P r o f e s s o r O b a s i ' s s t a t e s t h a t d e s p i t e t h e d i v e r s i t y o f backgrounds o f t h e i n t e r v i e w e e s , " t h e i r words convey a common t h r e a d o f hope, o f a s p i r a t i o n s , as w e l l as a c a l l f o r a c t i o n and i n t e r n a t i o n a l cooperation."'''* The i m p o r t a n t p o i n t h e r e i s , how can s o c i e t y c o l l e c t i v e l y r e s p ond i n a c o n s t r u c t i v e and e f f e c t i v e manner t o p e n d i n g c l i m a t e change i s s u e s , e s p e c i a l l y on t h e l o c a l l e v e l ? "3 I n c e (1990), Op. C i t . ; pages 60-61. W o r l d M e t e r o l o g i c a l O r g a n i z a t i o n (1992) , C l i m a t e Change. Environment and Development. World l e a d e r ' s v i e w p o i n t s . (WMO-No. 772, S e c r e t a r i a t o f t h e World M e t e r o l o g i c a l O r g a n i z a t i o n ; Geneva, S w i t z e r l a n d ) ; pg. v i i i . i i i ) Recommendations f o r Action I t i s t h e c o n t e n t i o n o f t h i s a u t h o r t h a t i t i s n o t t h e r o l e o f p l a n n i n g , o r p l a n n e r s , t o m a i n t a i n t h e s t a t u s quo as i s o f t e n t h e c a s e , b u t r a t h e r t o e n a b l e i t t o change. We do n o t l i v e i n a s t a t i c e n v i r onment b u t r a t h e r i n an e v e r - e v o l v i n g one so why do we c o n t i n u e t o s u p p o r t and encourage t h o s e a c t i v i t i e s w h i c h a r e t h e causes o f r a p i d c l i m a t e change such as g l o b a l warming? P l a n n e r s i n c l u d e p o l i c y makers, government b u r e a u c r a t s , e l e c t e d p o l i t i c a l r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s , b u s i n e s s l e a d e r s , c i t y and r e g i o n a l p l a n n e r s , and academics. To d a t e most o f t h e i r e f f o r t s and r e s o u r c e s have been c o n c e n t r a t e d upon t h e a c c u m u l a t i o n o f d a t a , e l a b o r a t e d i s c u s s i o n s , and revamping o f p o l i c i e s t o m i n i m i z e n e g a t i v e i m p a c t s , w i t h most o f t h i s a c t i v i t y o c c u r r i n g on t h e g l o b a l and n a t i o n a l l e v e l s . R e v i s i o n s o f c o a s t a l zone management s t r a t e g i e s , and t h e r e g u l a t i o n o f some l o c a l economic a c t i v i t i e s a r e e s s e n t i a l l y r e a c t i v e measures t o p r e v e n t t h e w o r s t - c a s e i m p a c t s o f development i n e n v i r o n m e n t a l l y s e n s i t i v e zones. What i s n o t b e i n g t a r g e t e d f o r change a r e t h e p r i m a r y causes o f c l i m a t e change. We s h o u l d be w o r k i n g t o change and r e p l a c e t h o s e a c t i v i t i e s w h i c h cause COj i n t h e f i r s t p l a c e . We m a i n t a i n t h e s t a t u s quo by c o n t i n u i n g t o s u p p o r t p r i v a t e v e h i c l e usage o v e r p u b l i c t r a n s i t , by d e l a y i n g and d i s c o u r a g i n g t h e development and i m p l e m e n t a t i o n o f a l t e r n a t i v e forms o f energy use, and by f a i l i n g t o g e t t o u g h w i t h t e c h n o l g i e s and i n d u s t r i e s w h i c h c o n t r i b u t e t o g l o b a l warming. What i s most c r i t i c a l l y needed are t r a n s i t i o n a l measures t o accomodate needed changes i n economic and p r i v a t e a c t i v i t i e s w h i c h cause g l o b a l warming; A t t a c k t h e cause o f problems t o p e r m a n e n t l y r e - i n v e n t "how" we "do b u s i n e s s " and l i v e on a d a i l y b a s i s . a) Implementing Tra n s i t i o n a l Actions on National & Local Levels Where, on t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l l e v e l , t h e o b j e c t i v e i s t o seek common ground and n e g o t i a t e consensus f o r a c c e p t a b l e economic b e h a v i o u r , n a t i o n a l governments s h o u l d seek t o r e v i e w p o l i c i e s , p r a c t i c e s , and f i n a n c i a l i n v e s t m e n t s by a s k i n g how b e h a v i o u r a t home c o n t r i b u t e s t o t h e g l o b a l and r e g i o n a l i m p a c t s o f a t m o s p h e r i c change as a r e s u l t o f i t s chosen methods o f development and o t h e r a c t i v i t i e s . F o r i n s t a n c e , a n a t i o n a l government s h o u l d ask, 1. How does t h i s new " l a y e r " o f i n f o r m a t i o n on a t m o s p h e r i c change a f f e c t e x i s t i n g economic, s o c i a l , and r e s o u r c e p o l i c i e s , i n c l u d i n g t h o s e p e r t a i n i n g t o p r e s e r v a t i o n and c o n s e r v a t i o n ? 2. A r e t h e r e s p e c i f i c p o l i c y g u i d e l i n e s a l r e a d y i n p l a c e w i t h r e g a r d t o l i n k i n g e n v i r o n m e n t a l i m p a c t s and development s t r a t e g i e s , and do t h e y a d d r e s s t h e i s s u e o f s u s t a i n a b l e development? I f n o t , i s p r e p a r a t o r y work underway t o do so? and. What g u i d e l i n e s and c r i t e r i a s h o u l d be considered?'"* I f t h e g u i d e l i n e s a r e a l r e a d y i n p l a c e , how adequate a r e t h e g u i d e l i n e s and c r i t e r i a ? and. What s p e c i f i c o b j e c t i v e s do t h e y meet? 3. I s t h e r e a c o n f l i c t o f i n t e r e s t between t y p e s o f economic a c t i v i t i e s engaged i n and t h e new c o n c e r n s and o b j e c t i v e s o v e r c l i m a t e change? How would t h e new p o l i c i e s a f f e c t " G u i d e l i n e s " r e f e r t o g e n e r a l i t i e s o f p r a c t i c e which s h o u l d be c o n s i d e r e d , w h i l e " c r i t e r i a " r e f e r s t o more s p e c i f i c r u l e s o r r e g u l a t i o n s w h i c h must be met. These terms have a l s o been r e f e r r e d t o t h r o u g h o u t p o l i c y l i t e r a t u r e as " p r i n c i p l e s " and " o b l i g a t i o n s " . e x i s t i n g i n s t i t u t i o n s and t h e d e l i v e r y o f e x i s t i n g programs?, and would t h e new p o l i c i e s a f f e c t e x i s t i n g economic a c t i v i t i e s ? 4. How mi g h t e x i s t i n g i n s t i t u t i o n s and l o c a l p l a n n e r s b e t t e r u t i l i z e t h i s new knowledge t o e n a b l e i t s e l f t o r e s t r u c t u r e i n o r d e r t o e l i m i n a t e c o n f l i c t s and o b s o l e s c e n c e w i t h i n t h e system, k e e p i n g i t s eye f i r m l y on f u t u r e s c e n a r i o s ? 5. What t r a n s i t i o n a l a c t i v i t y can be adopted t o phase out damaging economic a c t i v i t y u n t i l more e c o l o g i c a l l y sound t e c h n o l o g i e s a r e d e v e l o p e d and implemented? On t h e l o c a l l e v e l , p l a n n e r s s h o u l d a c t as e n a b l e r s , a i d i n g t h e i r n a t i o n a l c o u n t e r p a r t s t o b r i n g i n t o i m p l e m e n t a t i o n a c o h e s i v e agenda w h i c h compliments, i n s t e a d o f competing w i t h , n a t i o n a l p o l i c i e s . By p e r f o r m i n g t h e r o l e o f " e n a b l e r " p l a n n e r s , i n c l u d i n g t h o s e who s e r v e as p o l i c y m a k e r s and e l e c t e d o f f i c i a l s , p r o t e c t t h e i n t e g r i t y o f t h e systems which t h e y a r e s e r v i n g . By e n a b l i n g e x i s t i n g i n s t i t u t i o n s t o s u r v i v e v i a t h e i n t e g r a t i o n o f new i n f o r m a t i o n , new c i r c u m s t a n c e s , and new m e t h o d o l o g i e s p l a n n e r s can p r e s e r v e t h e means by which i t s s o c i e t y can s u r v i v e . P l a n n e r s s e r v e as e n a b l e r s when t h e y t e a c h t h o s e who a r e l e s s i n f o r m e d t h a n t h e m s e l v e s t o s t r e t c h beyond e x i s t i n g l i m i t a t i o n s t o a c h i e v e more p r o g r e s s i v e , and h o p e f u l l y , a l t r u i s t i c g o a l s . P l a n n e r s e n a b l e o t h e r s by: * b e i n g r e c e p t i v e t o new i d e a s and i n f o r m a t i o n ; * p r o v i d i n g c u r r e n t i n f o r m a t i o n o b t a i n e d t h r o u g h n e t w o r k i n g ; * p r o v i d i n g a forum f o r d i s c u s s i o n , r e v i e w , and i n t e g r a t i o n o f new i n f o r m a t i o n ; * p r o v i d i n g o p p o r t u n i t y t o d e s i g n new and more a p p r o p r i a t e m e t h o d o l o g i e s ; * p r o v i d i n g s u p p o r t and n u r t u r a n c e o f new i d e a s and s t r a t e g i e s ; * s u b j e c t i n g what we do and why we do i t t o r e g u l a r and r i g o r o u s s e l f - e x a m i n a t i o n ; * k e e p i n g a b r e a s t o f c u r r e n t r e s e a r c h i n t h e i r a r e a o f r e s p o n s i b i l i t y ; * b e i n g p o s i t i v e and p a t i e n t about i n i t i a l e f f o r t s t o i n c o r p o r a t e new i d e a s and methods; * p o s s e s s i n g i n t e g r i t y ; * by b l e n d i n g t h e b e s t o f s c i e n t i f i c m e t h o d o l o g i e s i n i t s s e a r c h f o r t r u t h w i t h t h e b e s t a s p e c t s o f s p i r i t u a l i t y , r e s p e c t i n g t h e i n t e g r a t e d n e s s o f a l l l i f e . * and, most i m p o r t a n t l y , by l o b b y i n g a g a i n s t t h e use o f a d d i t i o n a l f i n a n c i a l r e s o u r c e s i n p r o j e c t s , i n f r a s t r u c t u r e , and economic a c t i v i t i e s w hich s u p p o r t t h e o l d s t a t u s quo o f development. b) Implementing Transit i o n a l Actions i n Coastal Zone Management G i v i n g s p e c i a l c o n s i d e r a t i o n t o r o l e o f p l a n n i n g i n t h e d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s , i t i s h e r e more t h a n anywhere, t h a t t h e p l a n n e r must a c t as an e n a b l e r , w o r k i n g t o i n c o r p o r a t e t h e f o l l o w i n g t y p e o f i n f o r m a t i o n i n t o i t s c o a s t a l zone management p l a n s : Foreign Aid Programmes, Action Required By Country, and By Project: * I d e n t i f y p h y s i c a l zones o f r i s k , r a n k on a s c a l e ( i . e . c o a s t a l zones, f l o o d p l a i n s ) ; * I d e n t i f y any p a s t and c u r r e n t macro-changes i n l a n d uses which have impacted upon a r e a , s i g n i f i c a n t l y c h a n g i n g p h y s i c a l e nvironment [ i . e . f l o w o f w a t e r , ground w a t e r t a b l e , s i g n i f i c a n t r e d u c t i o n i n n a t u r a l , i n d i g e n o u s v e g e t a t i o n and/or c r o p s , changes i n s o i l q u a l i t y , changes i n r a i n f a l l , p r e c i p i t a t i o n p a t t e r n s , t e m p e r a t u r e s , e s p e c i a l l y where seasons have been a d j u s t e d which a f f e c t p l a n t i n g o f c r o p s , seed g e r m i n a t i o n and p o l l i n a t i o n , (e.g. t h e N i l e i n Egypt, no l o n g e r p o s s e s s e s a r e l i a b l e growing t i m e t a b l e ; f l o o d i n g and s u b s i d e n c e i n Bangkok where ground t a b l e s have been a l t e r e d ; d e f o r e s t a t i o n i n C h i n a ; impacts of p r e v i o u s bombing i n V i e t n a m ; and i n A f r i c a t h e a f f e c t s o f s a l i n i z a t i o n o f s o i l s , d r o u g h t , d e s e r t i f i c a t i o n ) ; * I d e n t i f y p o p u l a t i o n t r e n d s w i t h i n r e g i o n , t y p e s o f growth, demographic f a c t o r s (age, gender, e t h i c c o m p o s i t i o n ) ; * I d e n t i f y l o c a l and i n t e r n a t i o n a l Non-Governmental O r g a n i z a t i o n s (NGOs) w i t h e x p e r t i s e and c o n t a c t s w i t h i n r e g i o n and a r e a o f c o n c e r n ; * Conduct and f u r t h e r update d a t a assessment o f c o a s t a l zone a r e a s [ i . e . r i s e o r l o w e r i n g o f sea l e v e l , f u r t h e r i n v a s i o n o f b r a c k i s h w a t e r i n t o f r e s h w ater t a b l e s ] ; * Note any changes i n t r a n s i t i o n zones of r e g i o n r e v e g e t a t i o n , a n i m a l s i n b o t h r u r a l and urban a r e a s ; * Note c l o u d c o v e r and p r e c i p i t a t i o n l e v e l s ; p o l l u t i o n ; urban h e a t i s l a n d s ( i n m e g a c i t i e s e s p e c i a l l y ) ; * E v a l u a t e p r o j e c t s i n terms of s u s t a i n a b i l i t y o f e x i s t i n g r e s o u r c e s f o r v a r i o u s t i m e frames ( i n c l u d i n g m u l t i p l e s c e n a r i o s ) ; * E v a l u a t e e x p e c t e d a d d i t i o n a l l a n d p r e s s u r e s due t o p o p u l a t i o n i n c r e a s e s , r u r a l and urban m i g r a t i o n p a t t e r n s , t h e e v o l u t i o n o r p r e s e n c e o f m e g a c i t i e s , and n a t u r a l a t t r i t i o n r a t e s ; * H i r e s t a f f , p r o j e c t managers and c o n s u l t a n t s f o r f i e l d work w h i c h have a sound knowledge of e n v i r o n m e n t a l s u s t a i n a b i l i t y i s s u e s and knowledge o f t h e p h y s i c a l environment. R e q u i r e t h e development o f a m u l t i d i s c i p l i n a r y team i n c o r p o r a t i n g b o t h p h y s i c a l and s o c i a l s c i e n t i s t s , as w e l l as e n g i n e e r s and e c o n o m i s t s who a r e s p e c i a l l y t r a i n e d t o t h i n k i n an i n t e r d i s c i p l i n a r y manner. I n a d d i t i o n t o t h e above recommendations, t h e f o l l o w i n g s h o u l d a l s o be a d d r e s s e d : * P e r c e p t i o n o f s t r e s s and r i s k by t h e p o o r ; * R o l e o f gender s i n c e women a r e t h e p r i m a r y managers, a d a p t e r s , and b u f f e r s i n t i m e s of s h o r t a g e s and economic h a r d s h i p ; * Review e x i s t i n g recommendations from v a r i o u s r e p o r t s ; * R o l e o f l o c a l NGOs, l o c a l c i t i z e n p a r t i c i p a t i o n t o c o l l e c t d a t a , g i v e i n p u t (a l e s s e x p e n s i v e and more r e l i a b l e approach t o i m p r o v i n g e x i s t i n g d a t a bank and p r o v i d e s b u i l t - i n c o n s t i t u e n c y t o s u p p o r t f u t u r e programs, and i n a d d i t i o n , a i d s i n l o c a l awareness and e d u c a t i o n ) ; I n c o r p o r a t i o n o f l o c a l e x p e r t i s e o f i n d i g e n o u s p o p u l a t i o n s who p o s s e s s s p e c i a l knowledge, i n s i g h t i n t o t h e i r r e g i o n s , and s u r v i v a l s k i l l s i n a r e a s o f r i s k ; * E d u c a t i o n a t home and abroad, f o r t h e g e n e r a l p u b l i c and f o r b u s i n e s s e s p e c i a l l y ("business as u s u a l " i s no l o n g e r a c c e p t a b l e ) ; * Governments spend t i m e r e - d e f i n i n g i t s ' t erms o f "development" and " s u s t a i n a b i l i t y " b e f o r e u n d e r t a k i n g any f u t u r e p r o j e c t s ; * Wider c o n s u l t a t i o n which i n c l u d e s NGOs, l o c a l r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s , w o r l d e n v i r o n m e n t a l b o d i e s , n o t j u s t b u s i n e s s i n t e r e s t s . Expand r o l e o f community p a r t i c i p a t i o n and r o l e o f women i n development; « * L i a i s o n w i t h a s s o c i a t e d p r o j e c t s , l o c a l l y and i n t e r n a t i o n a l l y w i t h r e g a r d t o p o l i c y development; * C o - o r d i n a t i o n o f e n v i r o n m e n t a l p o l i c i e s and mandates w i t h economic agendas. These a c t i v i t i e s s h o u l d be l e d by a m u l t i d i s c i p l i n a r y team which combines t h e e x p e r t i s e o f both p h y s i c a l and s o c i a l s c i e n t i s t s , and e s p e c i a l l y t h o s e i n d i v i d u a l s from government, NGOs, and t h e p r i v a t e s e c t o r who have e x p e r i e n c e i n t h e a r e a o f n a t u r a l d i s a s t e r s . I t i s t h i s group o f p e o p l e who po s s e s s "hands-on" e x p e r t i s e and s k i l l s , and t h e r e f o r e can r e d f l a g t h e o r i e s o r a s s u m p t i o n s on t h e p a r t o f o t h e r team members. Leatherman (1994) r e p o r t s t h a t " t h e r e have been few d e t a i l e d s t u d i e s o f c o a s t a l v u l n e r a b i l i t y o f s m a l l i s l a n d s t a t e s (Roy and C o n n e l l , 1991; P e r n e t t a , 1992).'** I n a d d i t i o n t o t h e above Stephen P. Leatherman (1994), " R i s i n g Sea L e v e l s and S m a l l I s l a n d S t a t e s " , E c o d e c i s i o n . V o l . 11 ( W i n t e r 1994); page 54. recommendations, P a t r i c k Holmes o f I m p e r i a l C o l l e g e , London, s t a t e s t h a t "Sea l e v e l i n f o r m a t i o n i s o n l y one o f t h e t y p e s o f knowledge w h i c h need t o be o b t a i n e d by T h i r d World c o u n t r i e s w a n t i n g t o cope w i t h r i s i n g s e a s " , and t h e r e f o r e makes t h e f o l l o w i n g a d d i t i o n a l recommendations: [ t h a t ] T here ... be a s e t o f " c o a s t a l management o b j e c t i v e s " s e t t i n g out j u s t what t h e c o u n t r y i n q u e s t i o n wants t o a c h i e v e i n a war a g a i n s t r i s i n g s e a l e v e l s . S i n c e one o f t h e p o l i c y o p t i o n s , as a l w a y s , i s t o do n o t h i n g , i t i s w o r t h t h i n k i n g about a r e a s o f l a n d w h i c h i t m i ght be e a s i e r t o s a c r i f i c e t h a n t o t r y s a v i n g . I n most c a s e s , however, t h e p r o d u c t i o n o f a d e t a i l e d r e g i s t e r o f t h e a s s e t s o f c o a s t a l a r e a s w i l l r e v e a l an overwhelming number o f i m p o r t a n t i t e m s , from t h e n a t i o n a l a i r p o r t t o t h e main suburbs, where such an o p t i o n i s p r o b a b l y n o t a r e a l i s t i c one. I n t h i s c a s e , t h e n e x t e s s e n t i a l i s a d e t a i l e d d a t a b a s e on t h e c o a s t a l environment and t h e p r o c e s s e s w h i c h go on t h e r e , l o o k i n g a t p a t t e r n s o f e r o s i o n and d e p o s i t i o n and o t h e r i s s u e s . T h i s a l l o w s a l i s t o f o p t i o n s and c o s t s t o be drawn up, and e v e n t u a l l y l e a d s t o a programme of p r o t e c t i v e works and o t h e r t a c t i c s . The r e a l p o i n t may be t o e n s u r e t h a t as much as p o s s i b l e o f t h e work o f a d a p t i n g t o h i g h e r sea l e v e l s t a k e s p l a c e w i t h i n t h e c o n t e x t o f t h e d e c i s i o n s w h i c h p e o p l e and o r g a n i z a t i o n s t a k e a l l t h e t i m e , even i n normal circumstances.'"^ I n l o o k i n g a t c l i m a t e change impa c t s i n g e n e r a l t h e e a r l y i n t e r d i s c i p l i n a r y s t u d y (1979) done f o r t h e A m e r i c a n A s s o c i a t i o n o f A t m o s p h e r i c S t u d i e s (AAAS) r e p o r t e d f i n d i n g s s i m i l a r t o t h a t o f Holmes, ... what i s i m p o r t a n t f o r economic and s o c i a l impact s t u d i e s i s t h e r e g i o n a l r e s p o n s e . U n f o r t u n a t e l y , t o p r e d i c t r e g i o n a l r e s p o n s e s o f t e m p e r a t u r e , r a i n f a l l and so f o r t h r e q u i r e s c l i m a t i c models o f g r e a t e r c o m p l e x i t y -and expense - t h a n i s needed t o make g l o b a l l y a v e r a g e d p r e d i c t i o n s . N e v e r t h e l e s s , t h o s e few models w h i c h have been a p p l i e d t o t h i s problem t e n d t o s u g g e s t c e r t a i n P a t r i c k Holmes quotes i n Ince (1990), Op. C i t . ; page 62. c o h e r e n t f e a t u r e s . These i n c l u d e g e n e r a l l y w e t t e r s u b t r o p i c a l and monsoonal r a i n b e l t s , l o n g e r g r owing s e a s o n s i n t h e h i g h l a t i t u d e s , w e t t e r s p r i n g t i m e s i n h i g h and m i d - l a t i t u d e s , and — most p r o b l e m a t i c a l l y f o r f u t u r e a g r i c u l t u r e i n developed c o u n t r i e s — d r i e r midsummer c o n d i t i o n s i n mid- and some h i g h e r l a t i t u d e s (Manabe, W e t h e r a l d , S t o u f f e r ; 1981).'** B o u l d i n g a p t l y summarizes t h e e x p e r i e n c e o f t h e p l a n n i n g p r o c e s s i n t h e i n t e r d i s c i p l i n a r y AAAS p r o j e c t . She s t a t e s e v e r y s o c i a l s c i e n t i s t i n v o l v e d w i t h t h e p r o j e c t had a, . . . m i n d - s t r e t c h i n g e x p e r i e n c e i n c o n s i d e r i n g even a t t h e s i m p l e s t d e s c r i p t i v e l e v e l t h e c l i m a t e - d e t e r m i n i n g i n t e r a c t i o n s o f lithosphère, geosphere, h y d r o s p h e r e , c r y o s p h e r e , b i o s h p e r e , s o c i o s p h e r e , l o w e r atmosphere and s t r a t o s p h e r e . [ F i n d i n g t h a t ] t h e h a r d - s o f t dichotomy between t h e p h y s i c a l and t h e s o c i a l s c i e n c e s m e l t [ e d ] away i n t h e f a c e o f t h e p r e d i c t i o n - r e s i s t a n t c o m p l e x i t i e s o f p l a n e t a r y c l i m a t e p r o c e s s e s . P r e d i c t a b i l i t y b elongs i n t h e l a b o r a t o r y , o r when one i s d e a l i n g w i t h l a r g e - s c a l e p r o c e s s e s t a k i n g p l a c e under f a m i l i a r and w e l l - d e f i n e d c o n d i t i o n s . ... The economist, s o c i o l o g i s t and t h e p s y c h o l o g i s t can p r e d i c t as w e l l as t h e p h y s i c i s t when t h e v a r i a b l e s a r e under c o n t r o l . I n t h e s t u d y o f t h e s e m a c r o l e v e l i n t e r a c t i v e p r o c e s s e s on w h i c h o u r s u r v i v a l as a s p e c i e s may depend, we are a l l learners, from whatever d i s c i p l i n e , i n c l u d i n g t h e d i s c i p l i n e o f t h e h u m a n i t i e s . We a l l need each other."" iv) F u t u r e Thoughts One o f t h e most i n t e r e s t i n g p o i n t s r a i s e d r e g a r d i n g t h e i s s u e o f " u n c e r t a i n t y " i n p l a n n i n g was t h e e a r l i e r comment by D r o r (1986) i n " P l a n n i n g as Fuzzy Gambling: A R a d i c a l P e r s p e c t i v e on Coping w i t h U n c e r t a i n t y " , o f t h e tendency f o r " d e n i a l and maintenance" t o o c c u r i n s i t u a t i o n s o f u n c e r t a i n t y . I s t h e c u r r e n t new p h i l o s o p h y '** R o b e r t S. Chen, E l i s e B o u l d i n g , and S. S c h n e i d e r (1983), Op. C i t . ; page 11. E l i s e B o u l d i n g (1983), Op. C i t . ; page 4. and p o l i c y o b j e c t i v e o f " s u s t a i n a b l e development" r e a l l y a form o f d e n i a l — o f a n o t h e r u g l i e r t r u t h , t h a t perhaps s i t u a t i o n s a r e worse t h a n t h o s e b e i n g r e v e a l e d t o t h e p u b l i c , and f u r t h e r m o r e , i s i t p l a u s i b l e t h a t t h e e n v i r o n m e n t a l systems won't r e m a i n i n t a c k d e s p i t e o ur b e s t e f f o r t s t o promote " s u s t a i n a b l e development"? I s t h e t r e n d t o f i n a l l y a d d r e s s e n v i r o n m e n t a l knowledge o f systems management m e r e l y a c l e v e r d e l a y t a c t i c , an at t e m p t t o " m a i n t a i n " t h e e x i s t i n g s t a t u s quo w i t h o u t r e a l l y making a s e r i o u s e f f o r t t o d e v e l o p a new paradigm o f t h i n k i n g — new ways o f l i v i n g and s u r v i v i n g i n a r a p i d l y c h a n g i n g w o r l d ? When c o n f r o n t e d by new and r a d i c a l l y d i f f e r e n t i n f o r m a t i o n t h a n a n t i c i p a t e d , i t i s common f o r p e o p l e , o r g a n i z a t i o n s , and t h e i r governments t o f a l l i n t o a p s y c h o l o g i c a l m i n d - t r a p which c o n s i d e r a b l y h i n d e r s and d e l a y s any r e a l p r o g r e s s t o a v e r t i n g s e r i o u s c r i s e s . I n an e f f o r t t o gr a s p and u l t i m a t e l y r e s p o n d t o , new i n f o r m a t i o n and r a p i d l y c hanging c i r c u m s t a n c e s we stumble t h r o u g h a s e r i e s o f b e h a v i o u r a l s t a g e s c h a r a c t e r i z e d as f o l l o w s . The f i r s t s t a g e o c c u r s as something i s s l o w l y b e i n g r e c o g n i z e d as g o i n g wrong, u s u a l l y a f t e r massive i n v e s t m e n t has been made, e m o t i o n a l l y , p h y s i c a l l y , and f i n a n c i a l l y . The t e n d e n c y i n t h i s f i r s t s t a g e i s t o deny t h e l i t t l e " s i g n s " , j u s t i f y t h e " a n o m a l i e s " , and o t h e r w i s e c o n v i n c e o n e s e l f o f " c o i n c i d e n c e " o r one-time phenomena b u t n o n e t h e l e s s c o n t i n u e t o deny t h e t r e n d . The second s t a g e a d m i t s s u g g e s t i o n s t h a t t h i n g s m i g h t be g o i n g a s t r a y t o s u r f a c e , but a g a i n e i t h e r d e n y i n g and/or r e s e r v i n g o p i n i o n on some o r a l l a s p e c t s o f t h e p e r c e i v e d p r o b l e m ( s ) . The t h i r d s t a g e i s t o o p e n l y admit t h e r e a r e i n d e e d some t r u e "bugs" i n t h e s y s t e m and o r d e r f u r t h e r i n v e s t i g a t i o n s ( u s u a l l y done o n l y a f t e r a minor c r i s i s o f s o r t s has o c c u r r e d ) , meanwhile c a r r y i n g on b u s i n e s s as u s u a l f o r t h e most p a r t , b u t now perhaps l o o k i n g over one's s h o u l d e r o c c a s i o n a l l y t o a v o i d b e i n g t o t a l l y b l i n d s i d e d by f u r t h e r u n e x p e c t e d c o n t i n g e n c i e s . The f o u r t h s t a g e i s t h e l i m i t i n g and/or r e j e c t i n g o f c e r t a i n t y p e s o f i n f o r m a t i o n t o be i n c l u d e d i n t h e im p a c t a n a l y s i s r e v i e w s ; and l a t e r f i g h t i n g t o o t h and n a i l any and a l l p r o p o s a l s which s u g g e s t a r a d i c a l d e p a r t u r e from t h e o r g a n i z a t i o n a l and o p e r a t i o n a l s t a t u s quo. T h i s i s f o l l o w e d by t h e f i n a l , f i f t h s t a g e which i s when " t h e f u t u r e " a r r i v e s . R e a l i t y c o l l a p s e s a l l p r e v i o u s l y h e l d myths; m a s s i v e , o f t e n p a i n f u l r e s t r u c t u r i n g o c c u r s t o t h e e x t e n t t h a t a l l o b s o l e t e systems a r e d e f u n c t and r e p l a c e d by new systems w h i c h b e t t e r i n c o r p o r a t e t h e new r e a l i t i e s — a paradigm i n t h i n k i n g o c c u r s which i n t u r n now c r e a t e s a new s t a t u s quo. A t some t i m e i n t h e f u t u r e t h e c y c l e w i l l r e p e a t i t s e l f as l i f e p r o g r e s s e s a l o n g i t s own c o u r s e o f e v o l u t i o n . I n r e a l i t y t h e w o r l d i s s t r a d d l i n g a l l s t a g e s s i m u l t a n e o u s l y because o f t h e v e r y d i v e r s e c i r c u m s t a n c e s o c c u r r i n g n o t o n l y e n v i r o n m e n t a l l y , but p o l i t i c a l l y , e c o n o m i c a l l y , s o c i a l l y , and c u l t u r a l l y t h r o u g h o u t t h e w o r l d a t any g i v e n t i m e . The c u l t u r a l component i s e s p e c i a l l y i m p o r t a n t and not t o be l i g h t l y d i s m i s s e d -- each c u l t u r e i s immersed i n i t s own v i s i o n o r i n t e r p r e t a t i o n o f r e a l i t y based upon i t s p a s t h i s t o r y , p h y s i c a l e n v i r o n m e n t , and t h e r e l i g i o u s and s p i r i t u a l p h i l o s o p h i e s t h a t have e v o l v e d i n o r d e r t o cope w i t h s u c h r e a l i t i e s . The i n s t i t u t i o n a l r e s p o n s e s t o t h e s e r e a l i t i e s have e v o l v e d d i r e c t l y out o f t h a t c u l t u r e ' s p a r t i c u l a r w o r l d v i e w . Some c u l t u r e s r e l y h e a v i l y upon m a i n t a i n i n g t h e s t a t u s quo w h i l e o t h e r s r e g a r d t h e f u t u r e as more i m p o r t a n t ; some have a l o n g h i s t o r y , some have r e l a t i v e l y young h i s t o r i e s . Each c u l t u r e p l a c e s d i f f e r e n t " v a l u e s " upon t h e i r p h y s i c a l e n v i r o n m e n t s , t h e i r r e s o u r c e s , and most i m p o r t a n t l y t h e i r v e r y humanity — t h e v a l u e o f human l i f e , o f t e n f u r t h e r c o m p l i c a t e d by i s s u e s o f gender and e q u i t y . The e n v i r o n m e n t a l and s o c i a l impacts t h a t have a r i s e n as a r e s u l t o f o u r economic b e h a v i o u r assumes b o t h p a s t and c u r r e n t a c t i v i t i e s . However, many o f t h e impacts i n t h e f u t u r e w i l l be l a r g e l y o u t o f our c o n t r o l t o s t o p because o f our p a s t economic b e h a v i o u r , e s p e c i a l l y i f we " c o n t i n u e b u s i n e s s as u s u a l " . Human a c t i v i t i e s have u n l e a s h e d a c h a i n r e a c t i o n o f a magnitude wh i c h we a r e p o w e r l e s s t o s t o p , and we have become p r e y t o our own c r i t i c i s m s o f b e i n g m e r e l y r e a c t i v e p o l i t i c i a n s and p l a n n e r s r e s p o n d i n g t o p e n d i n g c r i s e s , r a t h e r t h a n p r o a c t i v e a g e n t s i n c o n t r o l o f o u r own d e s t i n y . The l o c a l , n a t i o n a l , and i n t e r n a t i o n a l p l e a s f o r a c t i o n and a s s i s t a n c e v i a s l o g a n s such as "Think G l o b a l l y , A c t L o c a l l y " , and "Reduce, Reuse, and R e c y c l e " c a n o n l y hope t o s o f t e n t h e i n e v i t a b l e blow t o t h e c u r r e n t s t a t e o f t h e e n v i r o n m e n t . What i s needed i s b e t t e r d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g s t r a t e g i e s w h i c h acknowledge t h e need t o e l i m i n a t e h a r m f u l economic and p r i v a t e a c t i v i t i e s , and r e p l a c e them w i t h e n v i r o n m e n t a l - f r i e n d l y l i v e l i h o o d s and l i f e s t y l e s . I t i s n o t p r u d e n t t o assume t h a t a s i n g l e approach t o g l o b a l c l i m a t e change and i t s r e l a t e d i m p a c t s w i l l be s u f f i c i e n t . Each g e o g r a p h i c and c u l t u r a l e n t i t y w i l l r e s p o n d a c c o r d i n g t o i t s own p h y s i c a l and human problems, and w i t h i n t h e c o n t e x t o f i t s own c a p a b i l i t i e s . A f t e r two decades of d e b ate on t h e e nvironment, i t has b r o u g h t us t o t h e b r i n k o f a p h i l o s o p h i c a l g l o b a l b a t t l e f i e l d c o n t r o l l e d by a few p l a y e r s , o f v a r i o u s extremes and s t r i p e s , and s u f f e r e d by a l l . I t would seem t h e n , t h a t we a r e c u r r e n t l y c o n f r o n t e d by what B o u l d i n g (1983) r e f e r s t o as t h e " G l o b a l Problématique", comprised of i n t e r n a t i o n a l economic, i n f o r m a t i o n , c u l t u r a l , and e n v i r o n m e n t a l orders.'^" Perhaps we have r e a c h e d t h e s t a g e w h e r e i n human s o c i e t y can no l o n g e r a f f o r d t o p r e s e r v e i t s own " c u l t u r e s " i f g l o b a l c l i m a t e change i s t o so s i g n i f i c a n t l y a l t e r t h e c u r r e n t environment. On a more p o s i t i v e n o t e , t o be i n d i v i d u a l l y s u c c e s s f u l w i l l r e q u i r e an openness t o o u t s i d e h e l p and i d e a s , as w e l l as o u t s i d e e f f o r t t o h e l p i n d i v i d u a l s p r o g r e s s . T r a n s i t i o n a l measures a r e r e q u i r e d on a l o c a l l e v e l t o h e l p c o m m u n i t i e s cope w i t h changes t o i n d u s t r y and l i f e s t y l e s . There w i l l be no one " r i g h t way", b u t i n s t e a d a m y r i a d o f " b e t t e r ways". some o f w h i c h have been d i s c u s s e d i n t h i s paper. By e n a c t i n g t r a n s i t i o n a l measures now e v e n t u a l l y we w i l l a l l be b e t t e r o f f i n t h e l o n g r u n . The c h a l l e n g e t h e n f o r p l a n n i n g and a l l p l a n n e r s o f e v e r y genre i s , t o change, t o be more i n f o r m e d , t o be more open t o new i d e a s , v a l u e s , and approaches t o managing d a i l y l i f e , and t o be committed t o c h a n g i n g our ways o f d o i n g b u s i n e s s . I t i s i n o n l y p l a n n i n g f o r t h e f u t u r e t h a t we a r e c a p a b l e o f s u c c e s s f u l l y managing p r e s e n t r e s o u r c e s . The f a r t h e r i n t o t h e f u t u r e one l o o k s , t h e more l i k e l y one can be guaranteed a l i f e t i m e o f w h i c h one i s pr o u d t o c l a i m . T h i s i s t r u e , because t h e v a l u e system by w h i c h we measure our t r u e w o r t h as i n d i v i d u a l s w i l l form t h e o v e r r i d i n g p r i n c i p l e by w h i c h we make our p l a n s , base o ur d e c i s i o n s , and r e v e r t back t o i n t i m e s o f c r i s i s . F i r m l y e n t r e n c h e d v a l u e s which s u p p o r t and s u s t a i n l i f e p r o t e c t us from b a c k s l i d i n g and a i d us i n s u c c e s s f u l l y r e s i s t i n g t e m p t a t i o n s w h i c h w i l l a l w a y s p r e s e n t t h e m s e l v e s . One s u c c e s s f u l l y l i v e d day added t o a n o t h e r l e a d s t o a s e r i e s o f many s u c c e s s f u l days, weeks, months and y e a r s . I n s h o r t a more s u c c e s s f u l f u t u r e . 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