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Roadway safety in China : a global comparison Qi, Jinsong 1992

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ROADWAY SAFETY IN CHINA - A GLOBAL COMPARISON by JINSONG QI B.A.Sc. Jilin University of Technology, 1982 A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF APPLIED SCIENCE in THE FACULTY OF GRADUATE STUDIES DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL ENGINEERING  We accept this thesis as conforming to the required standard  THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA November 1991 © Jinsong Qi, 1991  In presenting this thesis in partial fulfilment of the requirements for an advanced degree at the University of British Columbia, I agree that the Library shall make it freely available for reference and study. I further agree that permission for extensive copying of this thesis for scholarly purposes may be granted by the head of my department or by his or her representatives. It is understood that copying or publication of this thesis for financial gain shall not be allowed without my written permission.  (Signature)  ,.. . . , Department of (.... / in / The University of British Columbia Vancouver, Canada  Date  ^  DE-6 (2/88)  c3/, (991  ABSTRACT  In this paper, China's roadway traffic safety, as well as its socio-economic background and the traffic characteristics is reviewed and its statistics from various sources as well as those of a few other nations are analyzed. Compared with the largest population countries in the world, the number of accident fatalities in China is the highest.  Accident patterns were analyzed and their characteristics were found to differ significantly from those expected in North America. The accident characteristics in China are: high proportions are bicycle-related accidents; more severe accidents are in suburban areas; most accidents happen on road sections away from intersections, especially at gates of major trip-attraction unit compounds; and most casualties are peasants.  Accident causes were examined and the analysis revealed that drivers were responsible for most accidents and cyclists caused the second largest number of accidents. Violating traffic laws and regulations by both drivers and cyclists caused the majority of accidents.  ii  The analysis of accident trends in recent years indicates that the reduced rate of economic development may have caused a temporary drop in accident rates. Once the normal rate of development returns, China may have another increase of accidents unless further effective countermeasures are adopted.  A model of roadway accident rates that extends the ideas of Trinca et al's study is presented in this paper. The stages of countries' development are connected with the rates of Traffic Safety (deaths per 10,000 motor vehicles), Personal Safety (deaths per 100,000 people) and Motorisation (number of registered motor vehicles per 1,000 people).  The model assumes that a relationship exists between T, Traffic Safety; P, Population Safety; and M, Motorisation such that when vehicles are first introduced, motorisation is low, as is the population based death rate but Traffic Safety, measured by a vehicle based death rate, is high. The other extreme of the model is complete motorisation under which condition there is a decreasing, but fairly high, population based death rate and a low, and decreasing vehicle based death rate. Between these two extremes is a relationship that can be drawn from the data that distinguished developing from developed countries. The mechanism of the relationship is beyond the scope of the present study.  China is starting to implement traffic safety countermeasures. Some of the iii  existing countermeasures are reviewed and suggestions for possible new countermeasures are discussed. Based on the accident analysis, countermeasures should deal with: violations of traffic laws and regulations, improvement of the roadway and traffic management, and improvement of safety of bicycles. Any successful countermeasures taken from other countries must reflect the unique traffic situation of China.  iv  TABLE OF CONTENTS  ABSTRACT ^  ii  TABLE OF CONTENTS ^ LIST OF TABLES ^  v viii  LIST OF FIGURES ^  ix  ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ^  .xi  CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION ^ 1.1 SOCIO-ECONOMIC BACKGROUND ^ 1.2 ROADWAY SYSTEM IN URBAN CHINA ^  1 1 5  1.2.1 TRAFFIC CHARACTERISTICS ^  5  1.2.2 TRANSPORTATION MODES ^  7  1.3 PROBLEMS APPROACHED IN THE CHAPTERS ^  10  CHAPTER 2. SEVERITY OF ROADWAY ACCIDENTS IN CHINA ^ 11 2.1 ACCIDENT SEVERITY IN THE NATION ^  11  2.2 ACCIDENT SEVERITY IN URBAN CHINA ^  14  CHAPTER 3. ANALYSIS OF ACCIDENT CHARACTERISTICS ^  18  3.1 HIGH PROPORTION OF BICYCLE-INVOLVED ACCIDENTS ^ 18 3.2 FREQUENT ACCIDENT LOCATIONS ON ROAD SECTIONS ^ 21 3.3 SEVERE ACCIDENTS IN SUBURBAN AREAS ^ 3.3.1 AREA DISTRIBUTION OF ACCIDENTS ^  22  22  3.3.2 CONDITION ON ROADS IN CITY BOUNDARY SECTIONS ^  v  24  3.3.3 PEASANTS - THE MAJORITY OF VICTIMS ^  25  3.3.4 THE MIX OF SLOW TRACTORS AND FAST VEHICLES ^ 3.4 HIGH TRAFFIC ACCIDENT FATALITY RATE ^  27 28  3.5 ACCIDENTS BY TIME OF DAY AND BY WEATHER CONDITIONS ^ 3.6 CONCLUSIONS ^  CHAPTER 4. MAJOR CAUSES OF ACCIDENTS ^  33 33  37  4.1 PROPORTION OF ACCIDENTS CAUSED BY DIFFERENT USERS ^ 4.2 ACCIDENTS CAUSED BY MOTOR VEHICLES ^  37 40  4.2.1 DRIVERS' VIOLATIONS OF TRAFFIC LAWS AND REGULATIONS ^  40  4.2.2 DRIVERS' CARELESSNESS AND MISJUDGMENT ^ 44 4.2.3 MECHANICAL FAULTS OF MOTOR VEHICLES ^ 45 4.2.4 PROBLEMS FROM ROAD FACILITY AND TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT ^  45  4.3 ACCIDENTS CAUSED BY CYCLISTS AND PEDESTRIANS ^ 46 4.4 CONCLUSION ^  CHAPTER 5. FUTURE ACCIDENT TREND IN CHINA ^  49  51  5.1 TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS AFFECTED BY RATE OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ^  51  5.2 CHINA'S FUTURE TRAFFIC SAFETY ^  54  5.3 CONCLUSION ^  56  vi  CHAPTER 6. A MODEL OF ROAD ACCIDENT RATES ^  57  6.1 INTRODUCTION ^  57  6.2 A MODEL OF ROAD ACCIDENT RATES ^  57  6.2.1 REVIEW OF TRINCA'S STUDY ^  58  6.2.2 THE MODEL ^  61  6.2.3 THE IMPLICATION OF THIS MODE ^  65  6.2.4 TIME INDEPENDENT AND STAGE INDEPENDENT OF THE MODEL ^ 6.3 IMPLICATION FOR ROAD SAFETY POLICY ^  CHAPTER 7. ROADWAY SAFETY COUNTERMEASURES ^  66 68  71  7.1 IMPROVING EDUCATION AND LAW ENFORCEMENT ^ 71 7.2 IMPROVING SCIENTIFIC LEVELS OF SAFETY MANAGEMENT ^ 7.3 IMPROVING SAFETY FEATURES OF BICYCLES ^  73 75  7.4 ENCOURAGING PROPOSALS FROM ROAD USERS AND CONDUCTING SAFETY INVESTIGATIONS ^  76  7.5 EXCHANGING INFORMATION AND UTILIZING AVAILABLE STATISTICS ^  77  CHAPTER 8. SUMMARY ^  79  BIBLIOGRAPHY ^  82  vii  LIST OF TABLES  Table 1-1 Proportions of Motor Vehicles in China ^  8  Table 1-2 Bicycles and Motor Vehicles in China ^  8  Table 2-1 Accident Data in China ^  14  Table 2-2 Accident Data in Urban China ^  15  Table 2-3 Road Safety Indices in 10 Chinese Cities ^ 16 Table 3-1 Bicycle Accidents in Shanghai ^  20  Table 3-2 Beijing's Traffic Accident Casualties (1981-1985) ^ 20 Table 3-3 Accident Death Distribution on Road System (1985) ^ 22 Table 3-4 Accident Area Distribution in Beijing (1981-1985) ^ 23 Table 3-5 Accident Deaths by Careers in Beijing in 1985 ^ 26 Table 3-6 Fatality Rate in China and in Canada ^  viii  30  UST OF FIGURES  Figure 1-1 Map of China ^  2  Figure 1-2 Population Distribution in China ^  3  Figure 1-3 Comparison on Growth Rates between Motor Vehicles and Road Length in Beijing ^ 6 Figure 2-1 Casualties in Largest Population Countries ^  12  Figure 2-2 Casualties per 10,000 Motor Vehicles ^  13  Figure 3-1 Comparisons of Fatality Rates ^  29  Figure 3-2 Relative Risk Analysis ^  32  Figure 3-3 Accidents By Time of Day ^  35  Figure 3-4 Accident Distribution By Weather ^  36  Figure 4-1 Casualty Accidents Caused by Road-Users in Beijing (1986-1990) ^  38  Figure 4-2 Accidents by Non-Drivers' Causes (Statistics of Changchun in 1987-1988) ^ Figure 4-3 Accidents by Drivers' Faults ^  39 41  Figure 4-4 Major Causes of Casualty Accidents in Beijing by Motor Vehicles (1986-1990) ^ ix  42  Figure 4-5 Major Causes of Casualty Accidents in Beijing by Bicycles (1986-1990) ^  47  Figure 5-1 India's Trend of Traffic Accidents ^  53  Figure 5-2 Traffic Safety vs Motorisation ^  55  Figure 6-1 Traffic Safety vs Personal Safety ^  59  Figure 6-2 Relationship between Motorisation and Safety Rates by Trinca et al ^  60  Figure 6-3 Personal Safety vs Motorisation ^  62  Figure 6-4 Traffic Safety vs Motorisation vs Personal Safety ^ Figure 6-5 A Model of Road Accident Rates ^  63 64  ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to thank Dr. Francis P.D. Navin, for his valuable help and guidance throughout my study and would like to thank Dr. A.T. Bergan for his valuable assistance and the major funding provided for this subject. I also appreciate the encouragement and guidance from Dr. G.R.Brown and Prof. J.Li (China). It is these professors' constant interest in challenging roadway safety problems in China my motherland that has greatly encouraged me to explore this topic through global views. Tremendous helps also came from M.Macnabb, W.Waters and R.Thompson... at UBC Accident Research Team and J.Chan, Dorothy...at Transportation Centre at Univ. of Saskatchewan . Dr. Navin's family and Many other friends of mine also gave me great helps in my English writing.  xi  CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION  China is in the early stage of motorisation. The characteristics of its traffic safety record has resulted from many unique factors, yet certain similarities to other motorised countries exist. In this paper, China's roadway traffic safety, as well as its socio-economic background and the traffic characteristics is reviewed and its statistics from various sources as well as those of a few other nations are analyzed. China's socio-economic background and urban roadway system with its problems are reviewed in this chapter. This is background information that is needed to understand the unique character of China's safety problem and to understand why certain countermeasures are needed.  1.1 SOCIO-ECONOMIC BACKGROUND  Mainland China is divided into 26 provinces and three city-districts, as shown in Figure 1-1. The country's area is slightly larger than the United States and the population of 1.1 billion is about four times that of the U.S.A. Two thirds of the country is mountainous or semi-desert. The eastern regions consist of fertile plains and are the most densely populated. Population density varies widely from province 1  CHAPTER 1, INTRODUCTION  Figure 1-1 Map of China  2  CHAPTER I. INTRODUCTION  Figure 1-2 Population Distribution in China Source: (1)  3  CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION  to province. The density distribution can be classified into three groups, as shown in Figure 1-2. The most dense area shown in this figure has the density of above 500people per sq.km.. The largest cities such as Shanghai, Beijing and Tianjin are within this area(1).  Since the end of the "Cultural Revolution" which lasted from 1966 to 1976, China has concentrated its efforts on economic development. Economic reforms and an open-door policy have allowed the Chinese to pursue a better quality of life, although the recent GNP per capita of $320 US does not yet reflect the effects of the new policies. Color televisions, refrigerators, private motorcycles and private 4-wheel `agricultural ' tractors are pouring into the market. With its enormous resources and the people's determination for modernization, China is becoming increasingly industrialized. This development is reflected by the intense transportation activities in Chinese cities which are the political, cultural, economical centres and also the location of most industries.  Chinese cities normally administrate not only their urban districts but also the surrounding rural areas and suburban districts. The urban area of a city is normally the commercial centre and the most densely populated both by local residents and by visitors. Suburban and rural areas have the role of providing the urban area with agricultural products and the potential lands for extension of city developments and  4  CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION  new industries, and connecting rural areas and bridging other cities with major highways. Generally, major industries are located at the outskirts of urban areas. However, many of them have found themselves close to inner urban areas due to the unexpected speed of urban expansions.  1.2 ROADWAY SYSTEM IN URBAN CHINA 1.2.1 TRAFFIC CHARAC1ERISTICS  Due to the rapid development in recent years, the demand for mobility by both people and goods transportation has become greater. However, roadway capacity can not match the rapid growth of number of vehicles. Road capacity growth is less than 5%, while motor vehicle growth is at 20-25% annually(2). For example, Figure 1-3 presents the expansion of street length compared with that of vehicles in Beijing (3). Notice the sharp increase in the number of registered vehicles compared with the minor increase of street length. In many cities, traffic volumes have exceeded the design capacities of existing road facilities and congestion is common.  There are some unique traffic characteristics in China. One of them is the mixed traffic of motor vehicles and non-motor vehicles; another is the mixed traffic of ordinary motor vehicles and slow moving vehicles, such as tractors; the third is the fact that there are more commercial vehicles than passenger cars using the roads.  5  CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION  Figure 1-3 Comparison on Growth Rates between Motor Vehicles and Road length in Beijing Source: (3)  6  CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION  Motor vehicles in China are varied and include: commercial vehicles (mainly trucks and buses), passenger cars, special purpose vehicles and motorcycles, as well as tractors with tires (as opposed to crawler tractors which cannot enter the roadways). Non-motor vehicles are mainly bicycles and animal drawn carts. Shown in Table 1-1 are the proportions of different motor-vehicles in China. In Table 1-2, the ownership of bicycles and the total number of motor vehicles are listed.  To deal with the large volumes of non-motor vehicles, major streets in urban areas are often marked or separated wherever possible as fast lanes for motor vehicles and slow lanes for non-motor vehicles. However, large proportions of roads are not visibly divided this way due to either limited road widths or financial reasons.  1.2.2 TRANSPORTATION MODES  Buses and bicycles are the major modes of personal travel used in urban China. Passenger cars are largely government-owned and taxis are usually too costly for the average traveller. The bicycle, which numbered about 333 million in 1988, is the major private vehicle for personal travel. In addition, the number of motorcycles reached 5.42 million in 1988(4). Although still quite small compared to bicycles, the 5.42 million was significant compared with that of the other motor-vehicles legally sharing the motor-vehicle lanes on roads.  7  CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION  Table 1-1 Proportions of Motor Vehicles in China (X 1,000) YEAR  PASSENGER CARS  1987  COMMERCIAL VEHICLES TRUCKS  845  BUSES  3,367  439  MOTOR-  OTHERS  TRACTORS  607  6,367  Source:(5)  Table 1-2 Bicycles and Motor Vehicles in China (X 1,000) YEAR  NUMBER OF MOTOR-  NUMBER OF BICYCLES  VEHICLES• 1985  9,242  223,640  1986  11,930  258,030  1987  15,766  293,130  1988  N.A.  333,120  • Motor-vehicles also include tractors ( ired) and motorcycles Source: (4,5,6,7)  8  CYCLES  4,141  CHAPTER I. INTRODUCTION  Trucks in China are the major fraction of the motor vehicles. Most trucks are 4,000 kg and 5,000 kg and are manufactured in China. However, they are also frequently used to transport people on the cargo area, although this practice is illegal. In order to relieve congestions, trucks are often prohibited from entering major downtown streets during the daytime.  The volume of goods transported and the number of passengers who travelled by agricultural tractors (with tires) are quite significant, although the relevant data in China does always include those tractor related trips. Tractors are often banned on major streets in central urban areas. They are most frequently used on suburban and rural streets to supply cities with agricultural products and to carry peasants. In 1988, the total number of tractors (with tires), regarded as potential road users, was about 6.89 million(4).  The majority of motor-vehicles are owned by the government and driven by professional drivers. Driving is a job position in China. Recent policies have now allowed for the private ownership of motor-vehicles in China but they remain very expensive. Tractors and motorcycles are the two major motor-vehicle mode that are affordable for certain individuals. Forty-three percent of the 6.89 million tractors and forty-two percent of the 5.24 million motorcycles were privately owned in 1988 (4).  9  CHAPTER I. INTRODUCTION  A few trucks and buses are owned by private companies or individuals. These vehicles are often bought second-hand or when retired from government agency fleets. And they often have many problems relating to safety, pollution, fuelinefficiency and maintenance because of the financial limitations of their owners.  13 PROBLEMS APPROACHED IN THE CHAPTERS  In the following chapters recent accident statistics in China are introduced. Chapter 2 discusses the severity of traffic safety in urban China as well as in the whole nation and compares the situation in China with those of some other countries. In Chapter 3, accident patterns and characteristics are analyzed. In Chapter 4, accident causes in some Chinese cities are analyzed. Recent accident trends and economic developments in China are analyzed in Chapter 5 and compared to global traffic safety. A model, based on the global statistics, is proposed in Chapter 6 as a means to forecast accidents by stage of motorisation. Chapter 7 reviews some of the current Chinese safety countermeasures and discusses future countermeasures which may be applicable in China. Finally, the conclusions of the paper are summarized in Chapter 8.  10  CHAPTER TWO SEVERITY OF ROADWAY ACCIDENTS IN CHINA  2.1 ACCIDENT SEVERITY IN THE NATION  A very high rate of accident deaths now exists in China. During 1988, China had 54,814 deaths from roadway accidents, the highest among the 4 largestpopulation countries on the planet (1,8,9), see Figure 2-1. The rate of deaths per 10,000 motor vehicles in 1985 was 48, which was about 19 times that of the U.S.A. and at a level similar to that of India, another early motorising country(8,9,10). This comparison is shown in Figure 2-2.  The absolute numbers of accidents and casualties in all of China are listed in Table 2-1. Note that the number of deaths peak is 54,814 in 1988, the injury peak is 187,399 in 1987 and accident peak is 298,147 in 1987. The same indices in urban China, shown in Table 2-2, were found to have similar trends.  11  CHAPTER 2. SEVERITY OF ROADWAY ACCIDENTS IN CHINA  400  300  3,540,999  NUMBER OF DEATHS  350  • •• ■re.  NUMBER OF INJURED  297,605  250  3  200  170,598^168,900  150 100 50  CHINA88  INDIA85  USSR88  USA88  Figure 2-1 Casualties in Largest Population Countries Source: (1,8,9)  12  CHAPTER 2. SEVERITY OF ROADWAY ACCIDENTS IN CHINA  1985 data 210 co 200 ci) 190 7.3 180 •a) 170 > 160 1- 150 40 5 140 2 130 120 o 110 0 100 90 80 70 a 60 • 50 as 40 z 30 • 20 (..)^10 0  194.6  192.0  CHINA  ^  INDIA  ^  DEATHS  CANADA  •• ••  PIP •  ^  USA  INJURIES  Figure 2 2 Casualties per 10,000 Motor Vehicles -  SOURCE: (8,9,10)  CHAPTER 2. SEVERITY OF ROADWAY ACCIDENTS IN CHINA  Table 2-1 Accident Data in China  Year  Number of  Number of  Number  Accidents  Deaths  of Injuries  1985  202,394  40,906  136,829  1986  221,948  42,237  144,200  1987  298,147  53,439  187,399  1988  276,071  54,814  170,598  1989  258,030  50,441  159,021  1990  250,297  49,271  155,072  Source: (1)  2.2 ACCIDENT SEVERITY IN URBAN CHINA  Urban China is experiencing serious traffic congestion and accidents, due to the high concentration of transportation activities. In 1988, 136 926 (50%) of the total 276 071 accidents, 20 214 (37%) of the total 54 814 deaths and 75 077 (44%) of the 14  CHAPTER 2. SEVERITY OF ROADWAY ACCIDENTS IN CHINA  170 598 injured in China happened in urban areas.  Table 2-2 Accident Data in Urban China Year  Number of  Number of  Number of  Accidents  Deaths  Injuries  1986  105,880  12579  63,443  1987  199,568  18293  80,612  1988  136,926  20214  75,077  1989  128,570  19148  70,784  Source:(11,12,13,14)  The accident rates in several large cities (nationwide urban rates are unavailable) revealed the severity of accidents in urban China. Table 2-3 lists some major indices of roadway safety in 10 major cities. Notice that the ratio of average deaths per 10,000 registered motor vehicles was 46, the ratio of average deaths per 100,000 people was 8 and motorisation ratio of number of motor vehicles per 1,000 people was 17 in 1982.  15  CHAPTER 2. SEVERITY OF ROADWAY ACCIDENTS IN CHINA  Table 2-3^Road Safety Indices in 10 Chinese Cities in 1982 Numer of Motor  Death per  Death per  Death per  Vehicles per 1,000  10,000  100,000  1,000 Km of  People  Vehicles  People  Road  Beijing  25.81  38.63  9.97  208  Shanghai  12.94  55.66  7.20  473  Tianjin  14.97  55.30  8.28  393  Shenyang  13.61  43.57  5.93  179  Wuhan  14.51  56.22  8.16  185  Guangzhou  19.89  30.06  5.98  360  Haerbin  14.45  44.43  6.42  194  Chuongqing  13.75  60.14  8.27  185  Nanjing  21.05  40.53  8.53  230  Xian  20.73  49.07  10.17  362  Average  16.99  46.39  7.88  257  Cities -  ource:  16  CHAPTER 2. SEVERITY OF ROADWAY ACCIDENTS IN CHINA  Although the nationwide statistical data is unavailable, statistics from some large Chinese cities may give a glimpse of overall accident characteristics. These statistics reflect typical elements common to most urban areas although they do imply their local characteristics. As well, these statistics reflect in part some of the recent and significant achievement by influential people and organizations in combating roadway accidents in China.  17  CHAPTER THREE ANALYSIS OF ACCIDENT CHARAC FERISTICS  Analysis of the statistics of traffic accidents in China is made in the following sections which will focus on the major safety problems. The major focuses are: the bicycle-involved accidents, accidents on non-intersection road sections especially at unit exit location, situation at city boundary roads, peasants-the major victims and the mixed vehicle stream, high fatality rates, as well as accident characteristics by time and weather condition. The uniqueness of traffic accidents in China is revealed through comparison of the available statistics with those of other countries.  3.1 HIGH PROPORTION OF BICYCLE-INVOLVED ACCIDENTS  The structural and operational characteristics of bicycles can put cyclists into unfavourable situations, especially in mixed traffic streams. For an interesting discussion on the physics of the bicycle, see Whitt and Wilson (1982), Bicycle Science(16). Cyclists can easily lose their balance when stopping quickly. Also, cyclists tend to execute sudden or sharp turns in order to make his or her way through traffic by taking advantage of the bicycle's small size. With such sudden stops or sharp turns, cyclists and their bicycles may immediately take more road space and cause accidents if the motor vehicle cannot avoid colliding with them as a result of such unexpected 18  CHAPTER 3. ANALYSIS OF ACCIDENT CHARACTERISTICS  behaviour.  There has been a high proportion of bicycle-involved accidents in urban China. Shanghai's statistics present a five year trend of bicycle-involved accidents, see Table 3-1. Shanghai's cyclists were involved in 41.4% to 27.2% of the total accidents, 36.2% to 30.6% of the total deaths and 44.5% to 38.9% of the total injuries (17). Beijing's statistics show that non-motor vehicle users (mainly cyclists) and vehicle occupants were the two major classes of casualties (each had similar shares) while pedestrian victims just had minor shares, see Table 3-2 (18).  India, another developing country, has its level of motorisation close to that of China. However, situations for nine Indian cities indicate a much higher motorisation rate at 57 motor vehicles per 1,000 people than the average of the ten selected Chinese cities. The traffic safety rate of 15 deaths per 10,000 vehicles is much lower than the 46 in China. Studies in India reveal that 45 percent of the victims in a city are pedestrians (15.6% Beijing), 19 percent are cyclists (38.7% Beijing) and 16 percent are motorcycles (9,15,18).  These differences probably reflect the significantly different urban traffic situations in the cities of these two countries. One significant difference is that China  19  CHAPTER 3. ANALYSIS OF ACCIDENT CHARACTERISTICS  Table 3-1 Bicycle Accidents in Shanghai  year  bicycle  deaths of  injuries of  accidents  cyclists  cyclists  % of numbers % of  numbers % of numbers total  total  total  1984  3,445  41.4  167  33.1  3,348  44.5  1985  2,459  34.5  211  30.6  2,267  39.6  1986  2,596  30.8  224  33.0  2,414  39.2  1987  2,658  26.3  254  31.3  2,620  38.9  1988  2,422  27.2  256  36.2  2,194  39.6  Source:(17)  Table 3-2 Beijing's Traffic Accident Casualties (1981-1985) Vehicle Drivers  Cyclists*  Pedestrians  Deaths(%)  45.7%  38.7%  15.6%  Injuries(%)  41.6%  45.7%  12.7%  Source:(18) * data include small percentage of other non-motor user victims.  20  CHAPTER 3. ANALYSIS OF ACCIDENT CHARACTERISTICS  had 224 million bicycles, 7.2 times that of India (31 million) in 1985, while China's population was 1,045 million, just 1.4 times that of India (749 million) (7,9).  3.2 FREQUENT ACCIDENT LOCATIONS ON ROAD SECTIONS  Urban statistics showed that most accidents happened on road sections away from intersections and only a small percentage occurred at intersections. Between 71% to 80% of traffic fatalities occurred on non-intersection part of streets, see Table 3-3 and only 20% to 29% of the total accident fatalities happened at intersections. This information is for Beijing, Guangzhou, Changchun and Tianjin in 1985 (1,19). In Beijing, most fatalities occurred on arterial streets and very few on small alleys ("Hu Tong" in Chinese).  Changchun's data revealed that the most frequent accident locations were at those road sections adjacent to the entrance-exit gates of large units. Units in China are best described as compounds and are locations where people go for their work, school and recreations, etc. These compounds often have a main gate that handles the majority of access to and from the urban roads. The gates are usually away from the intersections. Among 14 frequent accident locations in Changchun, 12 of them are at such gate locations and only 2 are at intersections(19).  21  CHAPTER 3. ANALYSIS OF ACCIDENT CHARACTERISTICS  Drivers' carelessness often contributes to accidents at these gate locations. Unlike approaching intersections where drivers are aware of the presence of police Table 3-3 Accident Death Distribution on Road System (1985) Cities  Beijing  Guangzhou  On road sections away from intersections  major arterial  minor arterial  (377) 49.7%  (217) 28.6%  "hu tong"- alleys  At intersections  (163) 21.5%  (2) 0.2%  80%  20%  71%  29%  Changchun Tianjin (1987) source: ,  and of the potential dangers of accidents, drivers are often oblivious of the potential dangers on roads between intersections and especially at the entrance-exit gates of large units.  3.3 SEVERE ACCIDENTS IN SUBURBAN AREAS  3.3.1 AREA DISTRIBUTION OF ACCIDENT'S  Listed in Table 3-4 is the area distribution of casualty accidents in Beijing from 22  CHAPTER 3. ANALYSIS OF ACCIDENT CHARACTERISTICS  1981 to 1985. The injury accidents show that urban, suburban and far-suburban areas each had about one third of the accidents. However,-the fatal accidents indicate that the most severe accidents happened in far-suburban and suburban areas, only 12.3% happened in urban area.  Table 3-4 Accident Area Distribution in Beijing (1981-1985) Urban  Suburban  Far-suburban  Accidents(%)  32.7%  37.9%  29.4%  Injuries (%)  36.3%  36.0%  27.7%  Deaths (%)  12.3%  34.0%  53.7%  Source:(1 )  The more mixed traffic stream and higher speed differences are the major causes of casualties in suburban areas. These are the places where inexperienced peasant cyclists and drivers of slow-moving, less-safe tractors are sharing the narrow highway with high speed and high volumes of other traffic. Without proper segregation, peasants and cyclists mix with a multiplicity of vehicles.  The three factors: poor condition on roads at city boundary sections; risky 23  CHAPTER 3. ANALYSIS OF ACCIDENT CHARACTERISTICS  driving of slow speed tractors and high speed vehicles; the majority of victims peasants. These three factors are analyzed in the following sections.  3.3.2 CONDITION ON ROADS AT CITY BOUNDARY SECTIONS  Roads at the city boundary very often have no agency which is clearly responsible for their managements. Inner sections of the boundary are managed by Urban Development Management Bureaus and outer sections by Provincial Highway Departments. There is lack of co-ordination between the two departments in designing and managing the connection between the two jurisdictions. For this reason, roads on both sides are often not well connected and road facilities in these places are usually poorly maintained (19).  In addition, there are always high demands of mixed traffic volumes due to the limited number of roads for such connections and the lack of city-bypassing highways. At the east boundary location in Xian in 1980 (20), a volume of 8,657 bikes and a volume of 4,599 motor vehicles (including tractors and motorcycles) per hour for two directions on a 12 meter wide road were counted during a 14-hour observation period; at the west location, volumes of 6,426 bikes and 3,369 motor vehicles per hour were counted on a 10-11 meter wide road during a 13.5-hour observation. These volumes far exceeded the design capacity of the roads.  24  CHAPTER 3. ANALYSIS OF ACCIDENT CHARACTERISTICS As cities are expanding rapidly and new residences and factories are emerging  in suburban areas, traffic volumes today have grown higher than that of 10 years ago and situations at these sections of road in many other large Chinese cities appear to be similar or even worse than Xian's in the 1980's.  Bicycle-related accidents are dominant at these boundary points. At Xian's west connecting point, 65.5% of total accidents were bicycle-related from 1976 to 1980 (20). This is higher than would usually be expected, see Table 3-1  3.3.3 PEASANTS - THE MAJORITY OF VICTIMS  Accident deaths of peasants accounted for 40.2% of the total in Beijing during 1985, see Table 3-5. The national census of 1990 shows that Beijing's rural population was 26.92% of the total (1) and the deaths of peasants in 1985 over-represented their population, if the number of peasants visiting Beijing is not included (statistics unavailable).  There are sufficient reasons to believe that peasants have a high risk of traffic accidents. Residing in suburban or rural areas, peasants are often unfamiliar with the urban streets they visit and more importantly, they are unfamiliar with the traffic regulations (even city residents may not know enough of those rules to be safe).  25  CHAPTER 3. ANALYSIS OF ACCIDENT CHARACTERISTICS  Table 3-5 Accident Deaths by Careers in Beijing in 1985 Number of  Percentage of  Deaths  total  Peasants  305  40.2%  Workers  178  23.5%  Non-classified Residents*  79  10.4%  Office Personnel**  78  10.3%  Students***  34  4.5%  Drivers  34  4.5%  Others  51  6.6%  Total  759  100%  Victim Class  * "Shi-Min": city residents who do not work. ** "Gan-Bu": "Cadres"-those doing management work. *** Students: elementary and secondary school students Source:(18)  26  CHAPTER 3. ANALYSIS OF ACCIDENT CHARACTERISTICS  Moreover, peasant cyclists are not very experienced in dealing with high volumes of mixed traffic and it becomes even more difficult to handle bicycles if they carry big racks of agricultural goods, a common scene. In an emergency peasants may: hesitate to take actions to avoid accidents; be able to stop immediately but without good balance; or make sudden turns to avoid collisions with other bicycles and find themselves facing a severe collision with a motor vehicle.  In general, the death proportions by different careers in Table 3-5 reflect the combination of several factors such as: the population of road users, the frequency of their trips (vehicle-related or bicycle-related), the extent of their exposure to a dangerous traffic and their knowledge and capability of surviving in the system.  33.4 THE MIX OF SLOW TRACTORS AND FAST VEHICLES  The mix of slow and fast motor vehicles in suburban areas create many potential conflicts. Higher volumes of tractor traffic exist with other motor vehicles, as well as cyclists, animal-drawn carts and pedestrians. Since tractors are slow vehicles, other motor vehicles normally tend to drive at high speed on highways and thus have to frequently pass these slow tractors. With narrow road widths, each passing imposes extra dangers on tractors, cyclists and pedestrians, as well as motor vehicles themselves.  27  CHAPTER 3. ANALYSIS OF ACCIDENT CHARACTERISTICS  In 1987, tractors in China caused 15,922 (registered) accidents, 4,245 deaths and 10,804 injuries. The corresponding increase from 1986 was 5.3%, 7.9% and 5.8%. The fatality rate - ratio of death to casualty was very high at 28% (1).  Private vehicles also cause serious safety problems in China. Unlike government owned companies, private companies are concerned about their productivity as a first priority and tend to ignore safety. Having poor vehicles and a limited budget, they willingly risk their lives to make quick and temporary benefits by cutting maintenance and other operating costs. Often overloaded, these vehicles always rush to their destinations at speeds much higher than safe speed limits on narrow roads in poor condition. The potential for severe accidents is especially high in rural areas. Private buses connecting rural to urban areas also put peasant passengers into more risky situations.  3.4 HIGH TRAFFIC INJURY FATALITY RATE  The high traffic injury fatality rate - the ratio of deaths to the sum of deaths and injuries - commonly exists in countries that are at an early stage of motorisation. The injury fatality rates in several countries are shown in Figure 3-1. Note that this rate was 27.6% in Pakistan and was 24% in China, while Canada and the U.S.A. had less than 2% in 1988.  28  CHAPTER 3. ANALYSIS OF ACCIDENT CHARACTERISTICS  0.3 27%  Injury Fatality Rate=  Deaths (Deaths + Injuries)  0.2  0.15  14.2%  0.1  0.05  Pakistan^Malaysia China^S.Korea  Spain  Canada  USA  Figure 3-1 Comparisons of Injury Fatality Rates Source: (1,8)  29  CHAPTER 3. ANALYSIS OF ACCIDENT CHARACTERISTICS  This injury fatality rate generally is lower in urban areas than its national level, but it is still much higher in urban China than motorised countries, shown in Table 3-6. There has been a small increase of this ratio in Chinese urban areas in recent years. The higher ratios (both urban and nationwide data) in 1988 than in 1987 were caused partly by the increase of 1921 deaths but a larger decrease of 5535 injuries.  Table 3-6 Injury Fatality Rate in China and in Canada (ratio of deaths to the sum of deaths and injuries)  China  Canada  1986  1987  1988  1989  Urban  17%  19%  21%  21%  National  21%  22%  24%  24%  Urban  1%  1%  1%  1%  National  1.5%  1.5%  1.5%  1.5%  Source:(1,21)  The high ratio here also indicates that accidents in China are more severe. The severity of accidents reflects the unfavourable condition of mixed traffic components: ordinary motor vehicles including trucks; buses and passenger cars; slow  30  CHAPTER 3. ANALYSIS OF ACCIDENT CHARACTERISTICS  vehicles such as tractors; fast and less protected motorcycles; and numerous bicycles as well as pedestrians.  Shown in Figure 3-2 is an estimate ._of the relative amount of risk which different road-users will expose and their vehicles will impose on the others (22). Under heavily mixed traffic, pedestrians and cyclists sharing the same roads with motor vehicles expose themselves to the highest extent of risk in China, unlike in developed countries where most road users are motorists. Accidents will certainly be severe once they happen because the majority involve unprotected pedestrians and cyclists.  The high fatality ratio also indicates that there is a poor emergency response system for traffic accident victims and many injuries on the collision scene cannot be rescued. A recent paper by Li Xiao (23) in China Daily says: "... In a recent survey of 1,000 victims in Beijing, Shanghai, Changzhou, Chongqing and Shenyang, only 14 per cent of them were sent to hospitals by ambulance because of lack of emergency stations, and only 43 per cent of victims were offered first aid. Among the 1,000 victims, 19 died, two became disabled and 14 developed serious complications because of a delay in medical treatment".  The China Daily article concluded that there are four major reasons for the  31  CHAPTER 3. ANALYSIS OF ACCIDENT CHARACTERISTICS  ,. .  c1/4  .co  •C., 4c-i). "C3  a)  o_  y3  co :._  o>" C)  ,  , r+>  "1/4  -  Cl) C co  e q3 ()is\  —  cn 1:6 :—. c.)  >, 0  ,... o  .5  2  2  cts 0 ai-) co c a) co  2  0_  y3 C all  >  0 Cl)  cin  Figure 3-2 Relative Risk Analysis Source: (22)  M  co  =  c.)  L-  t—  CHAPTER 3. ANALYSIS OF ACCIDENT CHARACTERISTICS  poor emergency response system. First, drivers do not have any basic first aid knowledge since they have never been so trained. Second, there is a lack of skilled emergency rescue personnel. Third, there are no emergency service centres that are especially established to handle traffic accidents. Fourth, there is lack of research on medical treatment for traffic injuries.  3.5 ACCIDENTS BY TIME OF DAY AND BY WEATHER CONDITIONS  Figure 3-3 shows the distribution of accidents by time of day and Figure 3-4 presents the weather conditions under which those accidents happened in Changchun, a typical Chinese city. Notice that the accident peak occurred at p.m.peak hours of motor vehicle traffic (working hours for drivers). The bicycle traffic has its peak hours before 8 a.m. and after about 5 or 6 p.m.  3.6 CONCLUSIONS  Statistics in several typical Chinese cities revealed that the following characteristics:  (1). A large per cent of accidents involve bicycles.  33  CHAPTER 3. ANALYSIS OF ACCIDENT CHARACTERISTICS  (2). Most severe accidents happen on road sections away from intersections; most accidents happen on arterial and major streets, particularly at those sections adjacent to gates of large work unit compounds and other major trip attraction points.  (3). Within a city's administration area, most severe accidents happen in suburban and far-suburban areas. Road sections at urban-suburban boundaries are not managed co-operatively and the dominant accidents in these places are bicyclerelated.  (4). The majority of accident deaths or injuries are from the two largest groups of road users: motor vehicle occupants and non-motor vehicle users (mainly cyclists). Pedestrians are only a small victim group.  (5). Peasants are the majority victims of vehicle accident deaths, even within some city administration areas.  (6). Accidents are often severe once they happen due to the unfavourable mixed traffic.  (7). There is a comparatively poor emergency response system.  34  CHAPTER 3. ANALYSIS OF ACCIDENT CHARACTERISTICS  0  100  0  (Statistics of Changchun during 1987-1988)  0  80  60  4  40  20  0  F. 1  0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23  Figure 3-3 Accidents By Time of Day Source: (19)  CHAPTER 3. ANALYSIS OF ACCIDENT CHARACTERISTICS  87.7 90  so  (Statistics of Changchun during 1987-1988)  70 1— 60  Lu  so  G. 40 30 20 10  5.4  3.2^3.1  0  sunny  0.6  rain^overcast^snow^wind  Figure 3-4 Accident Distribution By Weather Source: (19)  36  CHAPTER FOUR MAJOR CAUSES OF ACCIDENTS  4.1 PROPORTION OF ACCIDENTS CAUSED BY DIFFERENT USERS  In China, as in most western countries, the majority of traffic accidents are caused by motor vehicle drivers. In addition to those caused by motor vehicle drivers, a significant number of accidents are also caused by cyclists (the second largest group of road-users causing accidents). Shown in Figure 4-1 are those responsible for Beijing's accidents (24). Note that 49 percent of accidents were caused by motor vehicles, 36 percent by bicycles and 10 percent by pedestrians during the period from 1986 to 1990.  This is also true for many other Chinese cities although the accidents caused by cyclists may vary slightly. For instance, in Changchun during 1987-1988, drivers alone were responsible for about 70 percent of all accidents (19) while cyclists among the non-driver factors caused the majority of accidents. Shown in Figure 4-2 are the accidents in Changchun caused by road users other than motor vehicle drivers. In Xian, cyclists were responsible for 26-29 % of the total accidents during 1980-1981 and in 1981 they were responsible for 16.3% of the total 147 deaths and 33.7 % of the total injuries (20). 37  CHAPTER 4. MAJOR CAUSES OF ACCIDENTS  OTHERS 5.2%^PEDESTRIANS 10.0% **** " " • • • ' • • • • " • • ' • • " ........ ....................  • • • • • • • • • • ............  •••••••••••• •.......... • • • • • * • • • •.............  • • • •^- • •...... ••••• • • • • •................. • • • • • • • • • • • • • • - • • ........ ..... • • • • • • - • • • • • • • • • • • • • •^• • • • • • • • • • • • •  ....... ........ ......... .. .... .... .. .... .....  ..... ....... .... . .. ......... ... .. .... .  ......  . . . . . . . . . . ......... .. ...... ......  .........  .... ........ ........... ... .......... ......... .. ........ ..... ....  ..........  Figure 4-1 Casualty Accidents Caused by Road-Users in Beijing (1986-1990) Source: (24)  38  CHAPTER 4. MAJOR CAUSES OF ACCIDENTS  50  1.cyclists 2.others 3. pedestrians 4. mechanical faults 5.third parties 6. roads 7. management personnel  ^40^  ^L.  Z 30^ LI  w  a.  20  10  1  2  3  4  5  6  Figure 4-2 Accidents by Non-drivers' Causes (Statistics of Changchun in 1987-1988) Source: (19)  39  7  CHAPTER 4. MAJOR CAUSES OF ACCIDENTS  4.2 ACCIDENTS CAUSED BY MOTOR VEHICLES  The accidents caused by motor vehicle drivers in Changchun, and by motor vehicles in Beijing are shown in Figure 4-3 and Figure 4-4, respectively. Analysis of the causes in both cities highlights the four aspects of accidents caused by motor vehicles: (1). drivers' violations of traffic laws and regulations; (2). drivers' carelessness and misjudgment; (3). vehicles' mechanical faults. (4). problems in the road facility and traffic management.  4.2.1 DRIVERS' VIOLATIONS OF TRAFFIC LAWS AND REGULATIONS  The violations of traffic laws and regulations by drivers are the major causes of accidents. Drivers in China are supposed to have knowledge of traffic laws and regulations and thus they are supposed to respect these regulations. In the following discussions, traffic regulations refer to both traffic laws and regulations for simplicity.  The fact is that many drivers do not obey traffic regulations. Typical driving offenses are: "Driving against regulations", " operating vehicles against regulations", "exceeding speed limits", "drinking driving", "driving without a driver's licence" and "overtaking illegally" (19), see Figure 4-3. 40  CHAPTER 4. MAJOR CAUSES OF ACCIDENTS  1. driving against regulations 2. carelessness 3. operating vehicles against regulations 4. exceeding speed limits 5. drinking driving 6. driving without a driver's licence 7. overtaking illegally 8. overtaking on opposing traffic lanes 9. trying to go first  40 35 30 25 w cc 20 w 15 10 5  1111.1MI  0 1  2^3^4^5^6^7^8^9  Figure 4-3 Accidents by Drivers' Faults (Statistics of Changchun in 1987-1988) Source: (19)  41  CHAPTER 4. MAJOR CAUSES OF ACCIDENTS  25  W 0 20 I— Z ILI 15 0 CC LIJ D.10  1  5^6^7^8^9 10  1. Driving on the wrong side of the road 2. Carelessness 3. Going through red lights 4. Overtaking illegally 5. Others 6. Driving in pedestrian lanes 7. Travelling too close to the vehicle in front 8. Not giving way at pedestrian crossings 9. Mechanical faults 10. Drunken driving  Figure 4-4 Major Causes of Casualty Accidents in Beijing by Motor Vehicles (1986-1990) -^ Source: (24)  42  CHAPTER 4. MAJOR CAUSES OF ACCIDENTS  Notice that in Figure 4-3, the cause "driving against regulations" accounts for about 42% of the driver-error accidents. This category includes the part of violations such as going through red lights and disobeying stop signs, etc, but excludes the other part that have been specified in this figure in the detailed terms of violations.  Beijing's statistics present more detailed causes, see Figure 4-4. Note that "Driving on the wrong side of roads", "Going through red lights", "Overtaking illegally" - three out of the four major accident causes are due to the violations of traffic regulations.  Traffic signals and signs are not positively respected. When traffic police are off duty in the evenings as they are in most Chinese cities, drivers tend not to wait at intersections for green signals. Stop signs are not obeyed because it is common knowledge that the chance of police coverage is minimal.  Drinking driving has not become one of the top problems in comparison to many other accident causes, as shown in Beijing's and Changchun's statistics. However, there is a lack of ordinary people's awareness about the extent of alcohol's effects on drivers, unlike in the Western countries. Further statistics about the severity of drinking driving are unavailable, but no optimism can be assumed in 43  CHAPTER 4. MAJOR CAUSES OF ACCIDENTS  China's ability to solve this problem which has defied solution elsewhere.  People in China have the impression that many drivers (the majority of them are male) do like drinking. Alcohol-related drinks can be easily bought in stores and restaurants. Furthermore, drinking beer or wine is generally regarded by ordinary people as almost-non-alcohol or less-alcohol drinks, compared to the more popular male-consuming liquors of high alcohol content. The percentage of alcohol content is normally higher than that in North America.  4.2.2 DRIVERS' CARELESSNESS AND MISJUDGMENT  Drivers tend to overestimate the capability of their vehicles and their driving skills under complex situations. Included in this category are careless driving, overtaking in the opposing traffic lanes, overtaking illegally and trying to go first without yielding. Drivers are normally required to have three to six months training in traffic safety. The complexity of the human-road-vehicle-environment system in China, such as the mixed traffic and the road-users' behaviour with Chinese characteristics, really makes any carelessness and misjudgment extremely dangerous. Such a conclusion was reached from a survey conducted by the Beijing Traffic Engineering Institute (22).  44  CHAPTER 4. MAJOR CAUSES OF ACCIDENTS  4.2.3 MECHANICAL FAULTS OF MOTOR VEHICLES  Mechanical faults are another cause of accidents worth noting, although this cause is not that statistically significant. The recent economic reform allows the existence of a situation that connect productivity with an individual's salary. When this reform is applied to transport companies, people tend to place more emphasis on money-making and ignore vehicle maintenance. This is more serious in private business since they often own older vehicles and try to cut necessary operating and maintenance costs to maximize profits.  4.2.4 PROBLEMS FROM ROAD FACILITY AND TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT  The poor road conditions added to the vehicle mix of tractors and bicycles increase the potential for accidents. There is roughly 1.03 million kilometres of roadway in China, about 80 per cent of which is low-quality or substandard. These substandard roads have no traffic control systems, no zebra crossings and no lanes to separate the motor vehicles, bicycles and other road-users (22).  Traffic signs, signals and road markings, etc, are not informative or complete enough to get drivers through a potentially dangerous location. The causes "driving 45  CHAPTER 4. MAJOR CAUSES OF ACCIDENTS  on the opposing traffic lanes", "carelessness", "overtaking illegally or on the opposing traffic lanes", "not giving way at pedestrian crossings" and "trying to go first" in Beijing's and Changchun's statistics imply that either there is a lack of concern for safety or sufficient information has not been provided by the traffic control system.  4.3 ACCIDENTS CAUSED BY CYCLISTS AND PEDESTRIANS  Beijing's statistics show that disobeying traffic regulations by cyclists is the major cause of accidents compared to the other cyclists' faults, see Figure 4-5. Included in this category are the causes "going through red lights", "turning without signalling", "cycling in pedestrian lanes", "cycling on the wrong side of the street", "cycling in motor vehicle lanes" and "carrying passengers on the back seat". It is illegal to carry passengers on the back seat of a bicycle in China but as can be seen from many photos, this law is often ignored.  Education and enforcement of traffic regulations has not yet fully reached cyclists or pedestrians. It is a positive sign that cyclists have been forced to obey city traffic signals in recent years. However, enforcement of traffic rules on cyclists is mainly executed by the organized citizen inspectors. Cyclists tend not to be serious with the citizen inspectors.  46  CHAPTER 4. MAJOR CAUSES OF ACCIDENTS  30 25  W C2  a  V15  cc  W 0- 10  10  1. Going through red lights 2. Turning without signalling 3. Cycling in pedestrian lanes 4. Cycling on the wrong side of the street 5. Carelessness 6. Cycling in motor lanes 7. Speeding 8. Carrying passengers on the back seat 9. Overloading 10. Poor riding skills  Figure 4-5 Major Causes of Casualty Accidents in Beijing by Bicycles (1986-1990) Source: (24)  47  CHAPTER 4. MAJOR CAUSES OF ACCIDENTS  Among the road users, there are conflicting attitudes towards each other and lack of courtesy such as yielding. Cyclists' and pedestrians' attitudes towards drivers may be that drivers dare not hit them. Cyclists may cycle and make sudden turns wherever and whenever they wish, while drivers seldom yield to the non-motor vehicle users and take it for granted that others should get out of their ways.  Due to these conflicting attitudes, some road-users appear to ignore the others and do whatever they feel like doing. Turning without signalling (sudden sharp turning without even careful observation) and cycling in wrong places for cyclists own convenience (cycling in pedestrian lanes, on the wrong side of the street and in motor vehicle lanes, etc) are a few of typical examples shown by cyclists. A significant proportion of accidents were caused by these behaviours, shown in Figure 4-5.  Pedestrians are very vulnerable to severe accidents in China, although the percentage of pedestrian victims is small compared to the large number of cyclist victims. Pedestrians have not been forced to follow traffic signals in most cities and they may cross streets wherever they wish. Occasionally this phenomenon may also be seen in North America. The big differences are the fact that China has so many people and that drivers do not yield to pedestrians. These differences make pedestrians very vulnerable to accidents in China. Motor vehicle drivers have to skilfully zigzag through the crowds of cyclists and pedestrians using loud horns but 48  CHAPTER 4. MAJOR CAUSES OF ACCIDENTS  few stop to yield.  4.4 CONCLUSION  Motor vehicle drivers are responsible for most accidents and cyclists are the second. The fact that road users do not obey traffic laws is the first major cause of accidents. For drivers, driving on the wrong side of the road, going through red lights and overtaking caused the majority of the accidents. Cyclists cause accidents by going through red lights, making sudden turns and cycling in the wrong places.  Drivers' carelessness and misjudgment caused another significant proportion of accidents. Self-centred attitudes and lack of courtesy and mutual respect among all the road users increase the accident potentials. This is made worse by the mixed traffic without order.  Problems from road facility and traffic management include the fact that drivers may not be very well informed of any dangerous sections of road.  There are tendencies in some early motorising countries for people not to respect the traffic laws and regulations. In China, the legal system is not yet complete for traffic regulations. The concept of ruling by law is not deeply ingrained in the 49  CHAPTER 4. MAJOR CAUSES OF ACCIDENTS people's mind. Traffic laws or regulations are not taken seriously and generally regarded as something with little legal effect.  50  CHAPTER FIVE FUTURE ACCIDENT TREND IN CHINA  Recent five years accident trends in China appeared to have reached its peak and started to drop.In this chapter, accident trends in China are analyzed in comparison with its trend of economic development. Accident trends in some other countries are analyzed and compared to help to assess China's traffic safety situation.  5.1 TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS AFFECTED BY RATE OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT  There appears to be a drop in China's total accidents and injuries since 1987 and a drop of deaths since 1988, see Table 2-1. The implementation of countermeasures may have contributed to these drops, but it is thought that the slowdown of economic development may have been an even bigger factor. Coopers (25) had made the link between economic activity and accident rates for British Columbia, Canada.  Since the implementation of the open-door policy and economic reform, rapid economic development has created an increase in transportation demand which in 51  CHAPTER 5. FUTURE ACCIDENT TRENDS IN CHINA  turn contributed to the increase of road accidents before 1987 and 1988. At that time, the implementation of traffic laws and safety education could not match the rapid increase of transportation demand. Since late 1988 and 1989, the rate of economic development was slowed owing to the Chinese government's adjusted policies, as well as the changed policies of other countries' trading with China. Consequently transportation demand was lowered. The Chinese accident statistics from the whole nation and from the urban areas also follow this downward trend of the economic development.  The economic activity in developing countries may also be proportional to the accident rates. India's accident trends are shown in Figure 5-1. Note that the accidents, deaths and injuries have kept increasing. The number of motor vehicles grew at a rate of about 100% in five years while the road length was being increased at a rate of only about 15% (9). China's development of a market economy started sometime in 1978, after a series of political movements, such as the "Cultural Revolution". The number of road accident deaths had already reached more than 50,000 in 1986, 1987 and 1988, after only 8 years' of economic change (1).  52  CHAPTER 5. FUTURE ACCIDENT TRENDS IN CHINA  thousand 250 ^  200 accidents Injuries deaths 150  100 ••  .... •^  .........  ...  ...........  0^r  ............... .............................  1961^1966^1971^1  975............. 1980^1985 Statistical Year  Figure 5-1 India's Trend of Traffic Accidents Source: (9)  53  CHAPTER 5. FUTURE ACCIDENT TRENDS IN CHINA  5.2 CHINA'S FUTURE TRAFFIC SAFETY  Figure 5-2 shows the trends of deaths per 10,000 registered motor vehicles against motorization levels from the U.S.A. (26, 27), India (9) and the 33 selected countries during 1980-1985 by Trinca et al (28), compared with China in 1985 (10). In this figure, China and India are at the stage where their death rates will probably grow as the degree of motorisation increases. This is contrary to the fact that in motorised countries the death rates continue to drop.  During the stage of early motorising, there may occur a continual increase of road accidents as the country goes towards modernization. Accident rates in countries at the same stage of motorisation as China are probably more sensitive to the rate of economic development. Accident increases can be more drastic than in fully motorised countries where things have long been stabilized. Once the temporary economic slow-down is reversed and another fast pace of economic development comes, the accident rates may increase.  Can China avoid having more than 50,000 annual roadway accident deaths? Effective countermeasures are badly needed to curb any potential climb of future accidents. 54  ^  CHAPTER 5. FUTURE ACCIDENT TRENDS IN CHINA  T 200  A^•,^  ^:  ^N ",,,,..^  :  ^  .  .^  .  .s.  . . ... 3 DECADES IN INDIA .".....^s''. A A^:^ . ^..-0_-__ — (1181:1985) ^— '- .k LS: • ^AMERICAN HISTORY CHINA 85^‘.4 ^1923-1989 ,^! 1 ..^' A 1,.„^_ NA i  ---  ^,  —  ,  33 COUNTRIES^,... .^,....^ : i^. 1980-1985 DATA • I  2  3  ^  10^  100^300^100^NO  (Number of Motor Vehicles per 1,000 People)  Figure 5-2 Traffic Safety vs Motorisation Source: (9,10,26,27,28)  55  CHAPTER 5. FUTURE ACCIDENT TRENDS IN CHINA  5.3 CONCLUSION  The accident trend in China appears to be dropping in the last two years. However, this drop may have been caused by the slowed-down rate of economic development in recent two years. Comparisons with some other countries indicate that China is still at the stage of motorisation at which its accident rates may increase as its economic development increase.  56  CHAPTER SIX A MODEL OF ROAD ACCIDENT RATES  6.1 INTRODUCTION  The severity of traffic accidents in a country is the reflection of the country's economic situation as well as cultural background and government policies. Among those physical variables affecting traffic accidents are: densities of population, roads, vehicles; percentage of trucks (types of trucks), extent of the mixed roadway traffic of different types of motor vehicles and non-motor vehicles, frequency of trips; road users' attitudes towards respecting traffic regulations.  The complexity of including the traffic system of human-vehicle-roadenvironment-regulation and the other variables such as culture into a simple model is almost impossible. The data and graphs in the following discussions suggest a simple global model relating accident rates, traffic safety and personal safety and the rate of vehicle ownership or motorisation to the stages of a country's development.  6.2 A MODEL OF ROAD ACCIDENT RATES  57  CHAPTER 6. A MODEL OF ROADWAY ACCIDENT RATES  6.2.1 REVIEW OF TRINCA'S STUDY  Trinca et al (28) have proposed a relationship between the three variables of Traffic Safety, Personal Safety and Motorisation in a country that has the form: P- TxM  ^  (1)  or, n  P  -ln  T  +1n m  ^(2)  where P = Personal Safety-number of deaths per 100,000 people,  T = Traffic Safety-number of deaths per 10,000 motor vehicles, and  M = Motorisation-number of registered motor vehicles per 1,000 people.  Trinca et al's paper pointed out that there is a relationship between the three variables and the stages of a country's development. Data from 33 countries were used to draw T-P plane, see Figure 6-1 and the bar graph in a three dimensional space in Figure 6-2.  58  CHAPTER 6. A MODEL OF ROADWAY ACCIDENT RATES  P 50 on.  30  1 20 8  S  47a. 1 0  .o/  5 3 2 1  1  2^5^10 20^50 100 200 (Deaths per 10,000 Motor Vehicles)^  Figure 6-1 Traffic Safety vs Personal Safety Source: Trinca (28),(9,10,26,27)  59  T  CHAPTER 6. A MODEL OF ROADWAY ACCIDENT RATES  O  O  2 10  Figure 6-2 Relationship between Motorisation and Safety Rates by Trinca et al (28)  60  CHAPTER 6. A MODEL OF ROADWAY ACCIDENT RATES Furthermore, the profiles of the scattered data in T-M plane (Figure 5-2) and in P-M plane (Figure 6-3), together with that in T-P plane (Figure 6-1), are shown in Figure 6-4. The profile in T-M plane shows clearly that the traffic safety (T) improves as motorisation rate (M) increases. The regression of the data reveals that M and T are highly correlated. The profile in P-M plane reveals that developing countries with low level of motorisation have low rates of population based-death (P) and P will keep growing as a country further motorizes. When reaching highly motorisation, P values start to have dropping tendency. The profile in P-T plane illustrates that countries having high vehicle based-death rates (T) have low P; When T reduces, P will show an increase and this growing trend will reach a turning point where a dropping trend emerges at high level of motorisation. The three profiles project a generalized model in the form of a space cluster which pictures the global roadway safety situation to be discussed in the following.  6.2.2 THE MODEL  The generalized model is shown in Figure 6-5. The cluster can be divided into three parts. The beginning part (the lower left leg of the cluster) represents the situation in the developing countries. Note that countries in this section with low  61  CHAPTER 6. A MODEL OF ROADWAY ACCIDENT RATES  P 100  USA History (1923-1989)  F 50 .  33 Countries (1980-1985)  0  30 g 20 5 10 5 3  hina 1985  2  3 decades in India (1961-1985) 1  1  600 M 10 100 3^ 50^300^1,000 MOTORISATION ( VEHICLES PER 1000 POPULATION )  Figure 6-3 Personal Safety vs Motorisation Source: (9,10,26,27,28)  62  CHAPTER 6. A MODEL OF ROADWAY ACCIDENT RATES  Figure 6-4 Traffic Safety vs Motorisation vs Personal Safety Source: (9,10,26,27,28)  63  CHAPTER 6. A MODEL OF ROADWAY ACCIDENT RATES  Figure 6-5 A Model of Road Accident Rates  64  CHAPTER 6. A MODEL OF ROADWAY ACCIDENT RATES  motorisation levels can have extremely high rates of vehicle-based death but fortunately low rates of population-based deaths.  The final outcome at the right side of the cluster strip represents the situation in the developed countries. Most countries in this part of cluster are developed countries with high motorisation levels. They tend to have comparatively high rates of population-based death but lowest rates of vehicle-based deaths.  The section in between represents the situation in the fast-developing countries. With faster rates of motorisation, they tend to have highest populationbased death rates while having reduced, to an extent, their vehicle-based death rates.  The premise used in this figure is that all the countries have a fairly common start point with very high rate of T and very low rate of P and will probably have a common end point with low rate of T and some acceptable rate of P. Only the paths connecting the early stage and later stage differ from one country to another. The different paths reflect technology, knowledge and culture.  6.2.3 THE IMPLICATION OF THIS MODE  At the early stage of motorisation, developing countries have unsafe traffic  65  CHAPTER 6. A MODEL OF ROADWAY ACCIDENT RATES systems. Conventionally, further increasing their motorisation levels will affect more of their population as indicated by the higher rate of personal safety combined with their commonly large population density, which means more deaths would be expected from traffic accidents. Once the motorisation rate reaches a certain level, the population-based death rate peaks.  Some developed countries have reached an advanced phase of traffic safety and even the population-based death rate has started to drop. This drop may have resulted from the slower increase of motorisation rate with a much reduced traffic safety rate.  6.2A TIME INDEPENDENT AND STAGE INDEPENDENT OF THE MODEL  This model of roadway safety rates can be the dependent variable of either time or the stage of development or both. The model is dynamic, that is, there is both an economic force and a time dependant force that somehow makes the resulting accident rate change. Shown in these figures are data from the 33 selected countries (1980-85), China (1985), India (1961-85) and the USA (1923-89).  Whether or not and how the safety level of a country's traffic system has been improved can be examined in this model. Observing its data trend, we see how the  66  CHAPTER 6. A MODEL OF ROADWAY ACCIDENT RATES  country's position in this model changed as their motorisation progressed. The American and Indian data trends are examples of how rates of roadway safety have changed through the years' work on their traffic systems. Notice the U.S.A. data has reached its position at highly motorized stage while India has been moving its data upwards along the cluster.  A country's road accident rate may also demonstrate their stage of development, as described in the model. The data from the 33 countries and China show the global roadway safety situation at a fixed time, the period from 1980 to 1985. This type of data gives a comparison of safety situation with other countries at a fixed time and shows countries' states of development. China's 1985 data shows that China is at the early motorising stage and seemingly has to face further accident rate increases as its motorisation level keeps growing.  The dynamic nature of the model implies that the relative road safety of a country is always changing. Some countries may change more than others. Whether they get better or worse depends on their stage of development.  The model does hold out the prospect that road accident rates in more and more countries will tend to move towards the section of a highly developed stage. Eventually the scattered data in the model may be concentrated into the end point  67  CHAPTER 6. A MODEL OF ROADWAY ACCIDENT RATES  of the model for developed countries. The low vehicle-based death rate and a very low rate of population-based death rate should then prevail. The low populationbased death rate indicates that society will be least affected by the mobility caused by motorisation.  6.3 IMPLICATION FOR ROAD SAFETY POLICY  There are differences between the developing countries today and the countries that pioneered the use of motor vehicles although some similarities do exist. During the early years of motor vehicle use, knowledge and technology on how to design and build cars and roads were limited. The management of roadway operating systems such as the traffic signals, signs and markings and other traffic regulations as well as the emergency response systems were very limited. This knowledge and technology is available to today's developing countries however, they may not be used. This technology transfer to developing countries in the early stage of motorisation is extremely important to them and it may alter the proposed model.  Currently in developed countries, the knowledge of the human-car-roadenvironment system has reached a higher level than existed in the U.S.A. in say 1910 to 1930. A complete data collection system on roadway accident statistics enables better knowledge of safety-related areas and the corresponding countermeasures  68  CHAPTER 6. A MODEL OF ROADWAY ACCIDENT RATES  possible. The fact that the safety effects of seat-belt use have saved many involved in collisions in developed countries is one of the examples. The stern restriction of drinking driving due to the knowledge of the deadly effects of alcohol and drug abuse is another example.  One of the similarities between the pioneer days and today's developing countries may be the large speed difference of the mixed vehicle stream on the roadways. This may have come about because of the unavailability of special roads in the early years of the pioneer countries and in developing countries of today due to limited budgets to finance the work. Therefore there is a high opportunity for accidents since a high risk exposure is caused by the large speed differences. The result is that today's developing countries have large (T) vehicle based deaths but small (D) population based deaths because of small (M) motorisation level.  These similarities and differences between today and yesterday, late stage and early stage of development are reflected by the low vehicle based death ratios (T) but high population based death ratios (P) existed in developed countries today, and very high T but low P that appear to be with countries of both today and yesterday at early stage of development.  However, there seems to be too big a gap between today's developing  69  CHAPTER 6. A MODEL OF ROADWAY ACCIDENT RATES  countries and developed countries (even at their very early time). Developing countries may have to go through the period of the ever-increasing population-based death rate before the trends turn down, as long as their motorisation keeps growing. Exactly how knowledge and technology can be used to turn this around is not known.  In general, the world is more and more relying on highway transportation, as indicated by the high level of motorisation in developed countries and the large number of overly used vehicles in developing countries. Therefore there is an increasing potential of accidents and traffic safety in the world should be closely monitored.  The model proposed in this chapter does help illustrate how Traffic Safety (T), Population Safety (P) and Motorisation (M) may be related to stages of a countries development. There is nothing inherent in the model that says a country must go through these stages. The model does nothing more than report on a few observed data. The underlying mechanism that may drive the model has yet to be discovered.  70  CHAPTER SEVEN - ROADWAY SAFETY COUNTERMEASURES  In this chapter, some aspects of road safety countermeasures taken in China are reviewed. A complete assessment of current countermeasures from the Chinese perspectives is unavailable. Also, a few future countermeasure that may be applicable to China are discussed.  7.1 IMPROVING EDUCATION AND LAW ENFORCEMENT  China has realized that the country has to be run by law and so does the roadway system, even though streets are still informally called horse-roads in Chinese. As discussed previously, a large proportion of accidents are due to disobeying traffic laws. To counter this problem, three things are being attempted. First, the traffic control systems are being completed and traffic regulations being clarified. Second, road users are being educated on traffic systems and regulations. Third, the law violators are being challenged.  A set of strict traffic regulations and a good traffic control system are essential to safe traffic operations. With a good unified traffic control system throughout the country accompanied by a set of complete, clear and strict but practicable traffic laws 71  CHAPTER 7. ROADWAY SAFETY COUNTERMEASURES  and regulations, good traffic orders can be expected.  Another objective is to have traffic regulations known and understood by all. Education includes, first, letting ordinary people know the traffic regulations and second, letting people know the dangers of violating them. The involvement of official news medium in this issue has started. Some examples are: the severe traffic accidents are reported by television news; street posters similar to commercial advertisements are used; TV programs and fictional movies involving traffic safety education have been made; and the newspaper "Chinese Traffic Safety" has been available free to drivers in some areas (29). However, many cyclists in China do not yet have any idea of the meaning of many traffic signs (only motor vehicle drivers have to know them all by law).  To challenge the traffic-law violators, a large number of urban citizens are being organized both by conscription and voluntarily by local governments to help police enforce traffic laws. For example in 1989 in Beijing, 12.47 million traffic-law violators were stopped, at a rate of 30 thousands a day (13.5% of increase from 1988). Among them, 10.19 million were fined (20.6% of increase from 1988). Statistics are inflated relative to moving violations since they include many of bicycle related incidents such as bicycle parking in the wrong places. Furthermore, 50 violators causing accidents were sentenced and some other 150 were arrested by the  72  CHAPTER 7. ROADWAY SAFETY COUNTERMEASURES  police (30).  However, substantial improvement to people's respect of traffic laws cannot be expected soon. In the West, the traffic system works well by relying on the trust that the vast majority of road users will obey traffic control systems. For example, most people obey traffic signals at intersections without constant police's surveillance. In China, many of the road users do not have such a concept of either trusting or willingly obeying a traffic control system. They are accustomed to enduring certain risks of potential traffic accidents. With luck and the fact that there are not yet as many motor vehicles, they often avoid an accident. However, as traffic increases, their chance of avoiding an accident decreases. The enforcement of traffic law should be stricter and education programs need to be more persuasive.  The roadway vehicles including cars, trucks and rubber tired tractors are such a modern item of machinery that the majority of the citizens have little knowledge of their safe use. The fact that this machinery is being run without complete safety procedures being followed or being known is turning it into a mass killer, especially in developing countries. For this reason, both developing and developed countries should share not only the hardware technology but also the concept of using it safely, especially in the rapid motorising countries.  73  CHAPTER 7. ROADWAY SAFETY COUNTERMEASURES  7.2 IMPROVING SCIENTIFIC LEVELS OF SAFETY MANAGEMENT  The establishment of a comprehensive evaluation system of roadway traffic safety has been proposed (15). It is of important significance in China to evaluate the level of traffic safety for the country as a whole, as well as for any specific regions and to seek ways to improve traffic safety situation, prevent the increasing trend and reduce economic losses from traffic accidents.  Research on traffic accidents is being conducted extensively in many Chinese academic institutions and traffic departments. Accident characteristics and countermeasures suitable to China, as well as the technology and experience from more advanced countries, are also being studied. For example, research on the suitability of a person for driving a motor vehicle is being conducted. Since most drivers are professional drivers, it is possible in China to use some appropriate scientific methods to evaluate drivers and to hire only those having good physical and psychological profiles and good driving skill.  The knowledge of safety management personnel is being updated. There have been many training programs available in academic institutions and some other organizations. Some of the traffic and safety management personnel can go for training relating to traffic accident and safety. Courses are also being given to 74  CHAPTER 7. ROADWAY SAFETY COUNTERMEASURES  university and college students studying the relevant expertise. Traffic police are being equipped with improved facilities. More police vehicles, telecommunication networks, alcohol-detectors, speed-detectors and video equipment, etc, are being supplied. However, the levels of their mobility and communications are still at an early stage and much must be learned to make them completely effective in China (29).  7.3 IMPROVING SAFETY FEATURES OF BICYCLES  In urban areas, China is trying to separate bicycle traffic from motor-vehicle traffic. Wherever possible, streets are divided either by lane fences or lane markings separating the two traffic streams. However, many streets are not so visibly divided, mainly for the reason of limited budgets.  Facing the reality that the bicycle will be the major transportation facility for quite a long time in the future, China should make greater efforts to modify bicycle safety features. For the near future, mandatory installation of bicycle reflectors and lights could be a practical option in urban areas. For the long run, bicycle brakes, turning signals, reflectors, light system and other built-in safety features should be studied and re-designed if necessary. Bicycle design and manufacture should be part of a traffic management system.  75  CHAPTER 7. ROADWAY SAFETY COUNTERMEASURES  Many people in China can now afford color TVs which cost about 10 times more than a bicycle. However, they may be riding a poorly maintained bicycle without good brakes, night lights or reflectors. No one bothers to wear helmets when riding a bicycle. Only motorcyclists are required by Chinese law to wear helmets. If a safer model of bicycle can be supplied and marketed, only then can we expect a new purchasing "hot wave" in China to buy and own these new models. The new bicycles would be symbols of being modern. Such a bicycle revolution should come to China, the largest bicycle society in the world.  7.4 ENCOURAGING PROPOSALS FROM ROAD USERS AND CONDUCTING SAFETY INVESTIGATIONS  Although human errors caused most accidents, improved roadway facilities and traffic environments, together with appropriate traffic control measures, should be able to reduce the potential and consequence of accidents. Accident sites should be analyzed to find out the safety related problems in designs, constructions, and maintenances. This is particularly true at frequent accident locations.  In addition, measures should be taken before accidents occur. Many road users are experiencing similar traffic situations routinely and their voices requesting safer traffic are valuable. The questionable locations they identify should be studied by 76  CHAPTER 7. ROADWAY SAFETY COUNTERMEASURES  safety experts so that corrective measures can be taken in time to avoid accidents. It is very difficult in China for individuals to communicate directly with management departments. Those individuals who care for "public business" get no incentives. For these reasons, it is important that road users be easily able to contact officials in traffic safety branches and that they be aware that they can influence where and when certain countermeasures should be taken.  For example, due to the limited budget, not all of the intersections and the entrance-exit gates of trip generating units are equipped with any traffic signs or signals. Road users' lobbying may be able to help decision makers to identify and solve some of these safety problems.  7.5 EXCHANGING INFORMATION AND UTILIZING AVAILABLE STATISTICS  Information and statistics on traffic accidents should be more easily accessed and more fully utilized. China has been collecting accident statistics at various levels of government for a number of years. A great amount of work on safety and accidents has already been done by related departments and organizations but the information is not widely distributed.  77  CHAPTER 7. ROADWAY SAFETY COUNTERMEASURES Traffic accidents in China have to be solved according to the Chinese situation, which is challenging to the Chinese, as well as foreign experts from other countries who come to help. Traffic accidents are a world-wide phenomenon and information exchange on accident statistics and countermeasures with international organizations is beneficial to all communities. Not only will China benefit from the experience in the other countries, but the others, especially countries with similar situations may benefit from China's experience as well. The actual success of any new road safety countermeasures will depend very much on how well it is adjusted to fit the needs of China.  78  CHAPTER EIGHT SUMMARY  In this paper, China's roadway traffic safety is reviewed and its accident statistics from various sources as well as those of a few other nations are presented and analyzed throughout the chapters.  In Chapter 1, traffic characteristics in China, as well as the general socioeconomic background of the country are introduced. Compared with the largestpopulation-countries in the world in Chapter 2, the number of accident fatalities in China is the highest. The safety of its traffic system is in very poor condition, as indicated by its high rate of deaths per 10,000 motor vehicles, about 19 times greater than in the United States. This high vehicle based death rate indicates a country in the early stages of motorisation.  Accident patterns are analyzed in Chapter 3 and their characteristics are found to differ significantly from those expected in North America. The characteristics of China's road accidents are: high proportions are bicycle-related accidents; more severe accidents are in suburban areas; most accidents happen on road sections away from intersections, especially at gates of major trip-attraction unit compounds; most casualties are peasants. 79  CHAPTER 8. SUMMARY  In Chapter 4, accident causes are analyzed. The available statistics revealed that drivers were responsible for most accidents and cyclists however significantly caused the second largest number of accidents; violating traffic laws and regulations by both drivers and cyclists caused the majority of accidents. It is concluded that traffic laws and regulations in China are poorly respected; there are self-centred attitudes or lack of courtesy in sharing streets among various road-users; and the poor road facilities and traffic managements in many places should be partly blamed for causing accidents.  The analysis in Chapter 5 of accident trends in recent years indicates that the reduced rate of economic development may have caused a temporary drop in accident rates. Once the normal rate of development returns, China may have another increase of accidents unless further effective countermeasures are adopted.  A model of roadway accident rates that extends the ideas of Trinca et al's study is presented in Chapter 6. The stages of countries' development are connected with the rates of Traffic Safety (deaths per 10,000 motor vehicles), Personal Safety (deaths per 100,000 people) and Motorisation (number of registered motor vehicles per 1,000 people). The model hypotheses that accident rates in developing countries tend to move towards the rates found in more developed countries.  80  CHAPTER 8. SUMMARY  The model assumes that a relationship exists between T, Traffic Safety, P, Population Safety and M, Motorisation such that when vehicles are first introduced, motorisation is low, as is the population based death rate but Traffic Safety, measured by a vehicle based death rate, is high. The other extreme of the model is complete motorisation under which condition there is a decreasing but fairly high population based death rate and a low and decreasing vehicle based death rate. Between these two extremes is a relationship that can be drawn from the data that distinguished developing from developed countries. The mechanism of the relationship is beyond the scope of the present study.  China has recognized the severeness of its traffic safety situation and is starting to implement countermeasures. Some of the existing countermeasures are reviewed in Chapter 7 and suggestions for possible new countermeasures are discussed. Based on the information from previous chapters, countermeasures should deal with: violations of traffic laws and regulations, improvement of the roadway and traffic management, and improvement of safety of bicycles. Any successful countermeasures taken from other countries must reflect the unique traffic situation of China.  81  BIBLIOGRAPHY 1.National Statistics Bureau, Beijing, China. 2.Fang, S.Q., "The Present Conditions & Characteristics of Road Traffic in China & Measures Which Have Been Adopted", International Association of Traffic and Safety Science Research, Vol.12 No.2, 1988, pp.34-41. 3. Beijing Social Economic Statistics Yearbook, Beijing Statistics Bureau, China Statistics Publisher, Beijing, 1990. 4. China Statistics Yearbook, National Statistics Bureau, Beijing, 1989. 5. China Statistics Yearbook, National Statistics Bureau, Beijing, 1988. 6. China Statistics Yearbook, National Statistics Bureau, Beijing, 1987. 7. China Statistics Yearbook, National Statistics Bureau, Beijing, 1986. 8. World Road Statistics 1985-1989, International Road Federation, Washington, D.C., Edition 1990. 9. Victor, D.J., "Road Accidents in India", International Association of Traffic and Safety Science Research, Vol.13 No.1, 1989, pp. 82-83. 10.Yang, Z.S. and Holden, J.A., "Increased Motorisation and Highway Fatalities in the People's Republic of China", Transportation Research Record 1238, Transportation Research Board, National Research Council, Washington, D.C., 1989, pp. 65-72. 11.Urban China Statistics Yearbook, National Statistics Bureau, Beijing, 1990. 12.Urban China Statistics Yearbook, National Statistics Bureau, Beijing, 1989. 13.Urban China Statistics Yearbook, National Statistics Bureau, Beijing, 1988. 14.Urban China Statistics Yearbook, National Statistics Bureau, Beijing, 1987. 15.Yian Baojie, "Study on Establishing China's Roadway Safety Evaluation System", Reports on Science and Technology (Chinese), published by Xian Institute of Highway, 1988. 16.Whitt, F. and Wilson, D., "Bicycle Science", MIT Press, Cambridge, Mass.,1982. 82  17. Shanghai Statistics Bureau, Shanghai, China. 18. Beijing Statistics Bureau, Beijing, China. 19. Changchun Statistics Bureau, Changchun, China. 20. Yan Baojie, "Research on Bicycle Traffic Problems in China", Reports on Science and Technology (Chinese), published at Xian Institute of Highways, Sept, 1982. 21. Canadian Motor Vehicle Traffic Accident Statistics, collected in cooperation with the Canadian Council of Motor Transport Administrators, Transport Canada, Ottawa, Canada. 22. Froyland, P., "Causes and Consequences of Heavy Freight Vehicle Accident", Symposium on the Role of Heavy Freight Vehicles in Traffic Accidents, published in 1987 by Road and Transportation Association of Canada. 23. Li Xiao, "National Acts to Curb Road Toll", Page 4 on China Daily (English), October 1, 1991. 24. Wen Sha, "Beijing Battles Traffic Offenses", Page 4 on China Daily (English), October 1,1991. 25. Peter J. Cooper, "The Effects of Economic Changes on Traffic Safety", Insurance Corporation of British Columbia, Highway Safety Outlooks Conference, Toronto, Ont., 1986. 26. "The Statistical History of the United States-from Colonial Times to 1970", prepared by the United States Bureau of the Census, Basic Books Inc. Publishers, New York, 1976. 27. "Fatal Accident Reporting System 1989 - A Decade of Progress", U.S. Department of Transportation, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Washington, D.C., March 1991. 28. Trinca,G.W. and Johnston,I.R. et al, "Reducing Traffic Injury-A Global Challenge", An International Traffic Safety Project of the Royal Australasian College of Surgeons, 1988. 29. He Shiying, "Highway Safety in 1986", China Transportation Yearbook (Chinese), China Transportation Yearbook Publisher, Beijing, 1987. 30. Kang, Dongsheng, "Traffic Management", Beijing Social Economic Statistics Yearbook, (Chinese) pp.123-124, Beijing Statistics Bureau, Beijing, 1990.  83  

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