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Roadway safety in China : a global comparison Qi, Jinsong 1992

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ROADWAY SAFETY IN CHINA - A GLOBAL COMPARISONbyJINSONG QIB.A.Sc. Jilin University of Technology, 1982A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OFTHE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OFMASTER OF APPLIED SCIENCEinTHE FACULTY OF GRADUATE STUDIESDEPARTMENT OF CIVIL ENGINEERINGWe accept this thesis as conformingto the required standardTHE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIANovember 1991© Jinsong Qi, 1991In presenting this thesis in partial fulfilment of the requirements for an advanceddegree at the University of British Columbia, I agree that the Library shall make itfreely available for reference and study. I further agree that permission for extensivecopying of this thesis for scholarly purposes may be granted by the head of mydepartment or by his or her representatives. It is understood that copying orpublication of this thesis for financial gain shall not be allowed without my writtenpermission.(Signature) ,.. . . ,Department of  (.... / in /The University of British ColumbiaVancouver, CanadaDate^c3/, (991DE-6 (2/88)ABSTRACTIn this paper, China's roadway traffic safety, as well as its socio-economicbackground and the traffic characteristics is reviewed and its statistics from varioussources as well as those of a few other nations are analyzed. Compared with thelargest population countries in the world, the number of accident fatalities in Chinais the highest.Accident patterns were analyzed and their characteristics were found to differsignificantly from those expected in North America. The accident characteristics inChina are: high proportions are bicycle-related accidents; more severe accidents arein suburban areas; most accidents happen on road sections away from intersections,especially at gates of major trip-attraction unit compounds; and most casualties arepeasants.Accident causes were examined and the analysis revealed that drivers wereresponsible for most accidents and cyclists caused the second largest number ofaccidents. Violating traffic laws and regulations by both drivers and cyclists caused themajority of accidents.iiThe analysis of accident trends in recent years indicates that the reduced rateof economic development may have caused a temporary drop in accident rates. Oncethe normal rate of development returns, China may have another increase ofaccidents unless further effective countermeasures are adopted.A model of roadway accident rates that extends the ideas of Trinca et al'sstudy is presented in this paper. The stages of countries' development are connectedwith the rates of Traffic Safety (deaths per 10,000 motor vehicles), Personal Safety(deaths per 100,000 people) and Motorisation (number of registered motor vehiclesper 1,000 people).The model assumes that a relationship exists between T, Traffic Safety; P,Population Safety; and M, Motorisation such that when vehicles are first introduced,motorisation is low, as is the population based death rate but Traffic Safety,measured by a vehicle based death rate, is high. The other extreme of the model iscomplete motorisation under which condition there is a decreasing, but fairly high,population based death rate and a low, and decreasing vehicle based death rate.Between these two extremes is a relationship that can be drawn from the data thatdistinguished developing from developed countries. The mechanism of therelationship is beyond the scope of the present study.China is starting to implement traffic safety countermeasures. Some of theiiiexisting countermeasures are reviewed and suggestions for possible newcountermeasures are discussed. Based on the accident analysis, countermeasuresshould deal with: violations of traffic laws and regulations, improvement of theroadway and traffic management, and improvement of safety of bicycles. Anysuccessful countermeasures taken from other countries must reflect the unique trafficsituation of China.ivTABLE OF CONTENTSABSTRACT ^  iiTABLE OF CONTENTS^  vLIST OF TABLES  viiiLIST OF FIGURES ^  ixACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ^  .xiCHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION ^  11.1 SOCIO-ECONOMIC BACKGROUND^  11.2 ROADWAY SYSTEM IN URBAN CHINA  51.2.1 TRAFFIC CHARACTERISTICS ^  51.2.2 TRANSPORTATION MODES  71.3 PROBLEMS APPROACHED IN THE CHAPTERS^  10CHAPTER 2. SEVERITY OF ROADWAY ACCIDENTS IN CHINA^ 112.1 ACCIDENT SEVERITY IN THE NATION ^  112.2 ACCIDENT SEVERITY IN URBAN CHINA  14CHAPTER 3. ANALYSIS OF ACCIDENT CHARACTERISTICS^  183.1 HIGH PROPORTION OF BICYCLE-INVOLVED ACCIDENTS^ 183.2 FREQUENT ACCIDENT LOCATIONS ON ROAD SECTIONS ^ 213.3 SEVERE ACCIDENTS IN SUBURBAN AREAS^  223.3.1 AREA DISTRIBUTION OF ACCIDENTS  223.3.2 CONDITION ON ROADS IN CITYBOUNDARY SECTIONS ^  24v3.3.3 PEASANTS - THE MAJORITY OF VICTIMS ^  253.3.4 THE MIX OF SLOW TRACTORSAND FAST VEHICLES^  273.4 HIGH TRAFFIC ACCIDENT FATALITY RATE ^  283.5 ACCIDENTS BY TIME OF DAY AND BYWEATHER CONDITIONS ^  333.6 CONCLUSIONS ^  33CHAPTER 4. MAJOR CAUSES OF ACCIDENTS ^  374.1 PROPORTION OF ACCIDENTS CAUSED BYDIFFERENT USERS ^  374.2 ACCIDENTS CAUSED BY MOTOR VEHICLES ^  404.2.1 DRIVERS' VIOLATIONS OF TRAFFICLAWS AND REGULATIONS^  404.2.2 DRIVERS' CARELESSNESS AND MISJUDGMENT^ 444.2.3 MECHANICAL FAULTS OF MOTOR VEHICLES  454.2.4 PROBLEMS FROM ROAD FACILITY ANDTRAFFIC MANAGEMENT ^  454.3 ACCIDENTS CAUSED BY CYCLISTS AND PEDESTRIANS^ 464.4 CONCLUSION ^  49CHAPTER 5. FUTURE ACCIDENT TREND IN CHINA ^  515.1 TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS AFFECTED BY RATE OFECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ^  515.2 CHINA'S FUTURE TRAFFIC SAFETY ^  545.3 CONCLUSION ^  56viCHAPTER 6. A MODEL OF ROAD ACCIDENT RATES^  576.1 INTRODUCTION^  576.2 A MODEL OF ROAD ACCIDENT RATES^  576.2.1 REVIEW OF TRINCA'S STUDY  586.2.2 THE MODEL ^  616.2.3 THE IMPLICATION OF THIS MODE^  656.2.4 TIME INDEPENDENT AND STAGE INDEPENDENTOF THE MODEL ^  666.3 IMPLICATION FOR ROAD SAFETY POLICY ^  68CHAPTER 7. ROADWAY SAFETY COUNTERMEASURES ^  717.1 IMPROVING EDUCATION AND LAW ENFORCEMENT^ 717.2 IMPROVING SCIENTIFIC LEVELSOF SAFETY MANAGEMENT^  737.3 IMPROVING SAFETY FEATURES OF BICYCLES ^  757.4 ENCOURAGING PROPOSALS FROM ROAD USERS ANDCONDUCTING SAFETY INVESTIGATIONS ^  767.5 EXCHANGING INFORMATION AND UTILIZINGAVAILABLE STATISTICS^  77CHAPTER 8. SUMMARY^  79BIBLIOGRAPHY^  82viiLIST OF TABLESTable 1-1 Proportions of Motor Vehicles in China ^  8Table 1-2 Bicycles and Motor Vehicles in China  8Table 2-1 Accident Data in China ^  14Table 2-2 Accident Data in Urban China  15Table 2-3 Road Safety Indices in 10 Chinese Cities ^ 16Table 3-1 Bicycle Accidents in Shanghai ^  20Table 3-2 Beijing's Traffic Accident Casualties (1981-1985) ^ 20Table 3-3 Accident Death Distribution on Road System (1985) ^ 22Table 3-4 Accident Area Distribution in Beijing (1981-1985) ^ 23Table 3-5 Accident Deaths by Careers in Beijing in 1985  26Table 3-6 Fatality Rate in China and in Canada ^  30viiiUST OF FIGURESFigure 1-1 Map of China ^  2Figure 1-2 Population Distribution in China ^  3Figure 1-3 Comparison on Growth Rates betweenMotor Vehicles and Road Length in Beijing ^ 6Figure 2-1 Casualties in Largest Population Countries  12Figure 2-2 Casualties per 10,000 Motor Vehicles ^  13Figure 3-1 Comparisons of Fatality Rates ^  29Figure 3-2 Relative Risk Analysis  32Figure 3-3 Accidents By Time of Day ^  35Figure 3-4 Accident Distribution By Weather ^  36Figure 4-1 Casualty Accidents Caused by Road-Usersin Beijing (1986-1990) ^  38Figure 4-2 Accidents by Non-Drivers' Causes(Statistics of Changchun in 1987-1988) ^  39Figure 4-3 Accidents by Drivers' Faults ^  41Figure 4-4 Major Causes of Casualty Accidents in Beijing byMotor Vehicles (1986-1990) ^  42ixFigure 4-5 Major Causes of Casualty Accidents in Beijing byBicycles (1986-1990)^  47Figure 5-1 India's Trend of Traffic Accidents ^  53Figure 5-2 Traffic Safety vs Motorisation  55Figure 6-1 Traffic Safety vs Personal Safety^  59Figure 6-2 Relationship between Motorisationand Safety Rates by Trinca et al^  60Figure 6-3 Personal Safety vs Motorisation  62Figure 6-4 Traffic Safety vs Motorisationvs Personal Safety ^  63Figure 6-5 A Model of Road Accident Rates ^  64ACKNOWLEDGEMENTSI would like to thank Dr. Francis P.D. Navin, for his valuable help andguidance throughout my study and would like to thank Dr. A.T. Bergan for hisvaluable assistance and the major funding provided for this subject. I also appreciatethe encouragement and guidance from Dr. G.R.Brown and Prof. J.Li (China). It isthese professors' constant interest in challenging roadway safety problems in China -my motherland that has greatly encouraged me to explore this topic through globalviews. Tremendous helps also came from M.Macnabb, W.Waters and R.Thompson...at UBC Accident Research Team and J.Chan, Dorothy...at Transportation Centre atUniv. of Saskatchewan . Dr. Navin's family and Many other friends of mine also gaveme great helps in my English writing.xiCHAPTER ONEINTRODUCTIONChina is in the early stage of motorisation. The characteristics of its trafficsafety record has resulted from many unique factors, yet certain similarities to othermotorised countries exist. In this paper, China's roadway traffic safety, as well as itssocio-economic background and the traffic characteristics is reviewed and its statisticsfrom various sources as well as those of a few other nations are analyzed. China'ssocio-economic background and urban roadway system with its problems are reviewedin this chapter. This is background information that is needed to understand theunique character of China's safety problem and to understand why certaincountermeasures are needed.1.1 SOCIO-ECONOMIC BACKGROUNDMainland China is divided into 26 provinces and three city-districts, as shownin Figure 1-1. The country's area is slightly larger than the United States and thepopulation of 1.1 billion is about four times that of the U.S.A. Two thirds of thecountry is mountainous or semi-desert. The eastern regions consist of fertile plainsand are the most densely populated. Population density varies widely from province1CHAPTER 1, INTRODUCTIONFigure 1-1 Map of China2CHAPTER I. INTRODUCTIONFigure 1-2 Population Distribution in ChinaSource: (1)3CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTIONto province. The density distribution can be classified into three groups, as shown inFigure 1-2. The most dense area shown in this figure has the density of above500people per sq.km.. The largest cities such as Shanghai, Beijing and Tianjin arewithin this area(1).Since the end of the "Cultural Revolution" which lasted from 1966 to 1976,China has concentrated its efforts on economic development. Economic reforms andan open-door policy have allowed the Chinese to pursue a better quality of life,although the recent GNP per capita of $320 US does not yet reflect the effects of thenew policies. Color televisions, refrigerators, private motorcycles and private 4-wheel`agricultural ' tractors are pouring into the market. With its enormous resources andthe people's determination for modernization, China is becoming increasinglyindustrialized. This development is reflected by the intense transportation activitiesin Chinese cities which are the political, cultural, economical centres and also thelocation of most industries.Chinese cities normally administrate not only their urban districts but also thesurrounding rural areas and suburban districts. The urban area of a city is normallythe commercial centre and the most densely populated both by local residents andby visitors. Suburban and rural areas have the role of providing the urban area withagricultural products and the potential lands for extension of city developments and4CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTIONnew industries, and connecting rural areas and bridging other cities with majorhighways. Generally, major industries are located at the outskirts of urban areas.However, many of them have found themselves close to inner urban areas due to theunexpected speed of urban expansions.1.2 ROADWAY SYSTEM IN URBAN CHINA1.2.1 TRAFFIC CHARAC1ERISTICSDue to the rapid development in recent years, the demand for mobility byboth people and goods transportation has become greater. However, roadwaycapacity can not match the rapid growth of number of vehicles. Road capacity growthis less than 5%, while motor vehicle growth is at 20-25% annually(2). For example,Figure 1-3 presents the expansion of street length compared with that of vehicles inBeijing (3). Notice the sharp increase in the number of registered vehicles comparedwith the minor increase of street length. In many cities, traffic volumes have exceededthe design capacities of existing road facilities and congestion is common.There are some unique traffic characteristics in China. One of them is themixed traffic of motor vehicles and non-motor vehicles; another is the mixed trafficof ordinary motor vehicles and slow moving vehicles, such as tractors; the third is thefact that there are more commercial vehicles than passenger cars using the roads.5CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTIONFigure 1-3 Comparison on Growth Rates betweenMotor Vehicles and Road length in BeijingSource: (3)6CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTIONMotor vehicles in China are varied and include: commercial vehicles (mainlytrucks and buses), passenger cars, special purpose vehicles and motorcycles, as wellas tractors with tires (as opposed to crawler tractors which cannot enter theroadways). Non-motor vehicles are mainly bicycles and animal drawn carts. Shownin Table 1-1 are the proportions of different motor-vehicles in China. In Table 1-2,the ownership of bicycles and the total number of motor vehicles are listed.To deal with the large volumes of non-motor vehicles, major streets in urbanareas are often marked or separated wherever possible as fast lanes for motorvehicles and slow lanes for non-motor vehicles. However, large proportions of roadsare not visibly divided this way due to either limited road widths or financial reasons.1.2.2 TRANSPORTATION MODESBuses and bicycles are the major modes of personal travel used in urbanChina. Passenger cars are largely government-owned and taxis are usually too costlyfor the average traveller. The bicycle, which numbered about 333 million in 1988, isthe major private vehicle for personal travel. In addition, the number of motorcyclesreached 5.42 million in 1988(4). Although still quite small compared to bicycles, the5.42 million was significant compared with that of the other motor-vehicles legallysharing the motor-vehicle lanes on roads.7CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTIONTable 1-1 Proportions of Motor Vehicles in China(X 1,000)YEAR PASSENGERCARSCOMMERCIAL VEHICLESTRACTORSMOTOR-CYCLESTRUCKS BUSES OTHERS1987 845 3,367 439 607 6,367 4,141Source:(5)Table 1-2 Bicycles and Motor Vehicles in China(X 1,000)YEAR NUMBER OF MOTOR-VEHICLES•NUMBER OF BICYCLES1985 9,242 223,6401986 11,930 258,0301987 15,766 293,1301988 N.A. 333,120• Motor-vehicles also include tractors ( ired) and motorcyclesSource: (4,5,6,7)8CHAPTER I. INTRODUCTIONTrucks in China are the major fraction of the motor vehicles. Most trucks are4,000 kg and 5,000 kg and are manufactured in China. However, they are alsofrequently used to transport people on the cargo area, although this practice is illegal.In order to relieve congestions, trucks are often prohibited from entering majordowntown streets during the daytime.The volume of goods transported and the number of passengers who travelledby agricultural tractors (with tires) are quite significant, although the relevant data inChina does always include those tractor related trips. Tractors are often banned onmajor streets in central urban areas. They are most frequently used on suburban andrural streets to supply cities with agricultural products and to carry peasants. In 1988,the total number of tractors (with tires), regarded as potential road users, was about6.89 million(4).The majority of motor-vehicles are owned by the government and driven byprofessional drivers. Driving is a job position in China. Recent policies have nowallowed for the private ownership of motor-vehicles in China but they remain veryexpensive. Tractors and motorcycles are the two major motor-vehicle mode that areaffordable for certain individuals. Forty-three percent of the 6.89 million tractors andforty-two percent of the 5.24 million motorcycles were privately owned in 1988 (4).9CHAPTER I. INTRODUCTIONA few trucks and buses are owned by private companies or individuals. Thesevehicles are often bought second-hand or when retired from government agencyfleets. And they often have many problems relating to safety, pollution, fuel-inefficiency and maintenance because of the financial limitations of their owners.13 PROBLEMS APPROACHED IN THE CHAPTERSIn the following chapters recent accident statistics in China are introduced.Chapter 2 discusses the severity of traffic safety in urban China as well as in thewhole nation and compares the situation in China with those of some other countries.In Chapter 3, accident patterns and characteristics are analyzed. In Chapter 4,accident causes in some Chinese cities are analyzed. Recent accident trends andeconomic developments in China are analyzed in Chapter 5 and compared to globaltraffic safety. A model, based on the global statistics, is proposed in Chapter 6 as ameans to forecast accidents by stage of motorisation. Chapter 7 reviews some of thecurrent Chinese safety countermeasures and discusses future countermeasures whichmay be applicable in China. Finally, the conclusions of the paper are summarized inChapter 8.10CHAPTER TWOSEVERITY OF ROADWAY ACCIDENTS IN CHINA2.1 ACCIDENT SEVERITY IN THE NATIONA very high rate of accident deaths now exists in China. During 1988, Chinahad 54,814 deaths from roadway accidents, the highest among the 4 largest-population countries on the planet (1,8,9), see Figure 2-1. The rate of deaths per10,000 motor vehicles in 1985 was 48, which was about 19 times that of the U.S.A.and at a level similar to that of India, another early motorising country(8,9,10). Thiscomparison is shown in Figure 2-2.The absolute numbers of accidents and casualties in all of China are listed inTable 2-1. Note that the number of deaths peak is 54,814 in 1988, the injury peak is187,399 in 1987 and accident peak is 298,147 in 1987. The same indices in urbanChina, shown in Table 2-2, were found to have similar trends.11340035030025020015010050USA88INDIA85 USSR88CHINA88NUMBER OF DEATHSNUMBER OF INJURED 297,605170,598^168,900re.• •■ •3,540,999CHAPTER 2. SEVERITY OF ROADWAY ACCIDENTS IN CHINA Figure 2-1 Casualties in Largest Population CountriesSource: (1,8,9)12192.0 194.6CHAPTER 2. SEVERITY OF ROADWAY ACCIDENTS IN CHINA 1985 data210200coci) 1907.3 180• 170a)> 1601- 150045 1402 130120o 1100 1009080a 7060• 50as 40z 30• 20(..)^100 CHINA^INDIA^CANADA^USA DEATHSPIP ••••• INJURIESFigure 2-2 Casualties per 10,000 Motor VehiclesSOURCE: (8,9,10)CHAPTER 2. SEVERITY OF ROADWAY ACCIDENTS IN CHINA Table 2-1 Accident Data in ChinaYearNumber ofAccidentsNumber ofDeathsNumberofInjuries1985 202,394 40,906 136,8291986 221,948 42,237 144,2001987 298,147 53,439 187,3991988 276,071 54,814 170,5981989 258,030 50,441 159,0211990 250,297 49,271 155,072Source: (1)2.2 ACCIDENT SEVERITY IN URBAN CHINAUrban China is experiencing serious traffic congestion and accidents, due tothe high concentration of transportation activities. In 1988, 136 926 (50%) of the total276 071 accidents, 20 214 (37%) of the total 54 814 deaths and 75 077 (44%) of the14CHAPTER 2. SEVERITY OF ROADWAY ACCIDENTS IN CHINA 170 598 injured in China happened in urban areas.Table 2-2 Accident Data in Urban ChinaYear Number ofAccidentsNumber ofDeathsNumber ofInjuries1986 105,880 12579 63,4431987 199,568 18293 80,6121988 136,926 20214 75,0771989 128,570 19148 70,784Source:(11,12,13,14)The accident rates in several large cities (nationwide urban rates areunavailable) revealed the severity of accidents in urban China. Table 2-3 lists somemajor indices of roadway safety in 10 major cities. Notice that the ratio of averagedeaths per 10,000 registered motor vehicles was 46, the ratio of average deaths per100,000 people was 8 and motorisation ratio of number of motor vehicles per 1,000people was 17 in 1982.15CHAPTER 2. SEVERITY OF ROADWAY ACCIDENTS IN CHINATable 2-3^Road Safety Indices in 10 Chinese Cities in 1982Cities-Numer of MotorVehicles per 1,000PeopleDeath per10,000VehiclesDeath per100,000PeopleDeath per1,000 Km ofRoadBeijing 25.81 38.63 9.97 208Shanghai 12.94 55.66 7.20 473Tianjin 14.97 55.30 8.28 393Shenyang 13.61 43.57 5.93 179Wuhan 14.51 56.22 8.16 185Guangzhou 19.89 30.06 5.98 360Haerbin 14.45 44.43 6.42 194Chuongqing 13.75 60.14 8.27 185Nanjing 21.05 40.53 8.53 230Xian 20.73 49.07 10.17 362Average 16.99 46.39 7.88 257ource:16CHAPTER 2. SEVERITY OF ROADWAY ACCIDENTS IN CHINA Although the nationwide statistical data is unavailable, statistics from somelarge Chinese cities may give a glimpse of overall accident characteristics. Thesestatistics reflect typical elements common to most urban areas although they do implytheir local characteristics. As well, these statistics reflect in part some of the recentand significant achievement by influential people and organizations in combatingroadway accidents in China.17CHAPTER THREEANALYSIS OF ACCIDENT CHARAC FERISTICSAnalysis of the statistics of traffic accidents in China is made in the followingsections which will focus on the major safety problems. The major focuses are: thebicycle-involved accidents, accidents on non-intersection road sections especially atunit exit location, situation at city boundary roads, peasants-the major victims and themixed vehicle stream, high fatality rates, as well as accident characteristics by timeand weather condition. The uniqueness of traffic accidents in China is revealedthrough comparison of the available statistics with those of other countries.3.1 HIGH PROPORTION OF BICYCLE-INVOLVED ACCIDENTSThe structural and operational characteristics of bicycles can put cyclists intounfavourable situations, especially in mixed traffic streams. For an interestingdiscussion on the physics of the bicycle, see Whitt and Wilson (1982), BicycleScience(16). Cyclists can easily lose their balance when stopping quickly. Also, cycliststend to execute sudden or sharp turns in order to make his or her way through trafficby taking advantage of the bicycle's small size. With such sudden stops or sharp turns,cyclists and their bicycles may immediately take more road space and cause accidentsif the motor vehicle cannot avoid colliding with them as a result of such unexpected18CHAPTER 3. ANALYSIS OF ACCIDENT CHARACTERISTICSbehaviour.There has been a high proportion of bicycle-involved accidents in urban China.Shanghai's statistics present a five year trend of bicycle-involved accidents, seeTable 3-1. Shanghai's cyclists were involved in 41.4% to 27.2% of the total accidents,36.2% to 30.6% of the total deaths and 44.5% to 38.9% of the total injuries (17).Beijing's statistics show that non-motor vehicle users (mainly cyclists) and vehicleoccupants were the two major classes of casualties (each had similar shares) whilepedestrian victims just had minor shares, see Table 3-2 (18).India, another developing country, has its level of motorisation close to thatof China. However, situations for nine Indian cities indicate a much highermotorisation rate at 57 motor vehicles per 1,000 people than the average of the tenselected Chinese cities. The traffic safety rate of 15 deaths per 10,000 vehicles ismuch lower than the 46 in China. Studies in India reveal that 45 percent of thevictims in a city are pedestrians (15.6% Beijing), 19 percent are cyclists (38.7%Beijing) and 16 percent are motorcycles (9,15,18).These differences probably reflect the significantly different urban trafficsituations in the cities of these two countries. One significant difference is that China19CHAPTER 3. ANALYSIS OF ACCIDENT CHARACTERISTICSTable 3-1 Bicycle Accidents in Shanghaiyearbicycleaccidentsdeaths ofcyclistsinjuries ofcyclistsnumbers % oftotalnumbers % oftotalnumbers % oftotal1984 3,445 41.4 167 33.1 3,348 44.51985 2,459 34.5 211 30.6 2,267 39.61986 2,596 30.8 224 33.0 2,414 39.21987 2,658 26.3 254 31.3 2,620 38.91988 2,422 27.2 256 36.2 2,194 39.6Source:(17)Table 3-2 Beijing's Traffic Accident Casualties (1981-1985)Vehicle Drivers Cyclists* PedestriansDeaths(%) 45.7% 38.7% 15.6%Injuries(%) 41.6% 45.7% 12.7%Source:(18)* data include small percentage of other non-motor user victims.20CHAPTER 3. ANALYSIS OF ACCIDENT CHARACTERISTICShad 224 million bicycles, 7.2 times that of India (31 million) in 1985, while China'spopulation was 1,045 million, just 1.4 times that of India (749 million) (7,9).3.2 FREQUENT ACCIDENT LOCATIONS ON ROAD SECTIONSUrban statistics showed that most accidents happened on road sections awayfrom intersections and only a small percentage occurred at intersections. Between71% to 80% of traffic fatalities occurred on non-intersection part of streets, seeTable 3-3 and only 20% to 29% of the total accident fatalities happened atintersections. This information is for Beijing, Guangzhou, Changchun and Tianjin in1985 (1,19). In Beijing, most fatalities occurred on arterial streets and very few onsmall alleys ("Hu Tong" in Chinese).Changchun's data revealed that the most frequent accident locations were atthose road sections adjacent to the entrance-exit gates of large units. Units in Chinaare best described as compounds and are locations where people go for their work,school and recreations, etc. These compounds often have a main gate that handlesthe majority of access to and from the urban roads. The gates are usually away fromthe intersections. Among 14 frequent accident locations in Changchun, 12 of them areat such gate locations and only 2 are at intersections(19).21CHAPTER 3. ANALYSIS OF ACCIDENT CHARACTERISTICSDrivers' carelessness often contributes to accidents at these gate locations.Unlike approaching intersections where drivers are aware of the presence of policeTable 3-3 Accident Death Distribution on Road System (1985)Cities On road sections away from intersections At intersectionsBeijing major arterial minor arterial "hu tong"- alleys (163) 21.5%(377) 49.7% (217) 28.6% (2) 0.2%GuangzhouChangchun80% 20%Tianjin(1987)71% 29%source: ,and of the potential dangers of accidents, drivers are often oblivious of the potentialdangers on roads between intersections and especially at the entrance-exit gates oflarge units.3.3 SEVERE ACCIDENTS IN SUBURBAN AREAS3.3.1 AREA DISTRIBUTION OF ACCIDENT'SListed in Table 3-4 is the area distribution of casualty accidents in Beijing from22CHAPTER 3. ANALYSIS OF ACCIDENT CHARACTERISTICS1981 to 1985. The injury accidents show that urban, suburban and far-suburban areaseach had about one third of the accidents. However,-the fatal accidents indicate thatthe most severe accidents happened in far-suburban and suburban areas, only 12.3%happened in urban area.Table 3-4 Accident Area Distribution in Beijing (1981-1985)Urban Suburban Far-suburbanAccidents(%) 32.7% 37.9% 29.4%Injuries (%) 36.3% 36.0% 27.7%Deaths (%) 12.3% 34.0% 53.7%Source:(1 )The more mixed traffic stream and higher speed differences are the majorcauses of casualties in suburban areas. These are the places where inexperiencedpeasant cyclists and drivers of slow-moving, less-safe tractors are sharing the narrowhighway with high speed and high volumes of other traffic. Without propersegregation, peasants and cyclists mix with a multiplicity of vehicles.The three factors: poor condition on roads at city boundary sections; risky23CHAPTER 3. ANALYSIS OF ACCIDENT CHARACTERISTICSdriving of slow speed tractors and high speed vehicles; the majority of victims -peasants. These three factors are analyzed in the following sections.3.3.2 CONDITION ON ROADS AT CITY BOUNDARY SECTIONSRoads at the city boundary very often have no agency which is clearlyresponsible for their managements. Inner sections of the boundary are managed byUrban Development Management Bureaus and outer sections by Provincial HighwayDepartments. There is lack of co-ordination between the two departments indesigning and managing the connection between the two jurisdictions. For this reason,roads on both sides are often not well connected and road facilities in these placesare usually poorly maintained (19).In addition, there are always high demands of mixed traffic volumes due tothe limited number of roads for such connections and the lack of city-bypassinghighways. At the east boundary location in Xian in 1980 (20), a volume of 8,657bikes and a volume of 4,599 motor vehicles (including tractors and motorcycles) perhour for two directions on a 12 meter wide road were counted during a 14-hourobservation period; at the west location, volumes of 6,426 bikes and 3,369 motorvehicles per hour were counted on a 10-11 meter wide road during a 13.5-hourobservation. These volumes far exceeded the design capacity of the roads.24CHAPTER 3. ANALYSIS OF ACCIDENT CHARACTERISTICSAs cities are expanding rapidly and new residences and factories are emergingin suburban areas, traffic volumes today have grown higher than that of 10 years agoand situations at these sections of road in many other large Chinese cities appear tobe similar or even worse than Xian's in the 1980's.Bicycle-related accidents are dominant at these boundary points. At Xian'swest connecting point, 65.5% of total accidents were bicycle-related from 1976 to1980 (20). This is higher than would usually be expected, see Table 3-13.3.3 PEASANTS - THE MAJORITY OF VICTIMSAccident deaths of peasants accounted for 40.2% of the total in Beijing during1985, see Table 3-5. The national census of 1990 shows that Beijing's rural populationwas 26.92% of the total (1) and the deaths of peasants in 1985over-represented their population, if the number of peasants visiting Beijing is notincluded (statistics unavailable).There are sufficient reasons to believe that peasants have a high risk of trafficaccidents. Residing in suburban or rural areas, peasants are often unfamiliar with theurban streets they visit and more importantly, they are unfamiliar with the trafficregulations (even city residents may not know enough of those rules to be safe).25CHAPTER 3. ANALYSIS OF ACCIDENT CHARACTERISTICSTable 3-5 Accident Deaths by Careers in Beijing in 1985Victim Class Number ofDeathsPercentage oftotalPeasants 305 40.2%Workers 178 23.5%Non-classified Residents* 79 10.4%Office Personnel** 78 10.3%Students*** 34 4.5%Drivers 34 4.5%Others 51 6.6%Total 759 100%* "Shi-Min": city residents who do not work.** "Gan-Bu": "Cadres"-those doing management work.*** Students: elementary and secondary school studentsSource:(18)26CHAPTER 3. ANALYSIS OF ACCIDENT CHARACTERISTICSMoreover, peasant cyclists are not very experienced in dealing with highvolumes of mixed traffic and it becomes even more difficult to handle bicycles if theycarry big racks of agricultural goods, a common scene. In an emergency peasantsmay: hesitate to take actions to avoid accidents; be able to stop immediately butwithout good balance; or make sudden turns to avoid collisions with other bicyclesand find themselves facing a severe collision with a motor vehicle.In general, the death proportions by different careers in Table 3-5 reflect thecombination of several factors such as: the population of road users, the frequencyof their trips (vehicle-related or bicycle-related), the extent of their exposure to adangerous traffic and their knowledge and capability of surviving in the system.33.4 THE MIX OF SLOW TRACTORS AND FAST VEHICLESThe mix of slow and fast motor vehicles in suburban areas create manypotential conflicts. Higher volumes of tractor traffic exist with other motor vehicles,as well as cyclists, animal-drawn carts and pedestrians. Since tractors are slowvehicles, other motor vehicles normally tend to drive at high speed on highways andthus have to frequently pass these slow tractors. With narrow road widths, eachpassing imposes extra dangers on tractors, cyclists and pedestrians, as well as motorvehicles themselves.27CHAPTER 3. ANALYSIS OF ACCIDENT CHARACTERISTICSIn 1987, tractors in China caused 15,922 (registered) accidents, 4,245 deathsand 10,804 injuries. The corresponding increase from 1986 was 5.3%, 7.9% and 5.8%.The fatality rate - ratio of death to casualty was very high at 28% (1).Private vehicles also cause serious safety problems in China. Unlikegovernment owned companies, private companies are concerned about theirproductivity as a first priority and tend to ignore safety. Having poor vehicles and alimited budget, they willingly risk their lives to make quick and temporary benefits bycutting maintenance and other operating costs. Often overloaded, these vehiclesalways rush to their destinations at speeds much higher than safe speed limits onnarrow roads in poor condition. The potential for severe accidents is especially highin rural areas. Private buses connecting rural to urban areas also put peasantpassengers into more risky situations.3.4 HIGH TRAFFIC INJURY FATALITY RATEThe high traffic injury fatality rate - the ratio of deaths to the sum of deathsand injuries - commonly exists in countries that are at an early stage of motorisation.The injury fatality rates in several countries are shown in Figure 3-1. Note that thisrate was 27.6% in Pakistan and was 24% in China, while Canada and the U.S.A. hadless than 2% in 1988.^MalaysiaChina^S.Korea0.327% Injury Fatality Rate=(Deaths + Injuries)Deaths14.2%CHAPTER 3. ANALYSIS OF ACCIDENT CHARACTERISTICSFigure 3-1 Comparisons of Injury Fatality RatesSource: (1,8)29CHAPTER 3. ANALYSIS OF ACCIDENT CHARACTERISTICSThis injury fatality rate generally is lower in urban areas than its nationallevel, but it is still much higher in urban China than motorised countries, shown inTable 3-6. There has been a small increase of this ratio in Chinese urban areas inrecent years. The higher ratios (both urban and nationwide data) in 1988 than in1987 were caused partly by the increase of 1921 deaths but a larger decrease of 5535injuries.Table 3-6 Injury Fatality Rate in China and in Canada(ratio of deaths to the sum of deaths and injuries)1986 1987 1988 1989China Urban 17% 19% 21% 21%National 21% 22% 24% 24%CanadaUrban 1% 1% 1% 1%National 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5%Source:(1,21)The high ratio here also indicates that accidents in China are more severe.The severity of accidents reflects the unfavourable condition of mixed trafficcomponents: ordinary motor vehicles including trucks; buses and passenger cars; slow30CHAPTER 3. ANALYSIS OF ACCIDENT CHARACTERISTICSvehicles such as tractors; fast and less protected motorcycles; and numerous bicyclesas well as pedestrians.Shown in Figure 3-2 is an estimate ._of the relative amount of risk whichdifferent road-users will expose and their vehicles will impose on the others (22).Under heavily mixed traffic, pedestrians and cyclists sharing the same roads withmotor vehicles expose themselves to the highest extent of risk in China, unlike indeveloped countries where most road users are motorists. Accidents will certainly besevere once they happen because the majority involve unprotected pedestrians andcyclists.The high fatality ratio also indicates that there is a poor emergency responsesystem for traffic accident victims and many injuries on the collision scene cannot berescued. A recent paper by Li Xiao (23) in China Daily says: "... In a recent surveyof 1,000 victims in Beijing, Shanghai, Changzhou, Chongqing and Shenyang, only 14per cent of them were sent to hospitals by ambulance because of lack of emergencystations, and only 43 per cent of victims were offered first aid. Among the 1,000victims, 19 died, two became disabled and 14 developed serious complicationsbecause of a delay in medical treatment".The China Daily article concluded that there are four major reasons for the31CHAPTER 3. ANALYSIS OF ACCIDENT CHARACTERISTICS, r+>-"1/4—,q3 ()is\c1/4,...e.cocn2cts0Cl)Cco•C.,4c-i .)"C3o_a)y3co:._C)o>"1:6:—.c.)>,0,...o.52i-coca)co20_a)y3Call>0Cl)Mcin coc.)=L-t—Figure 3-2 Relative Risk AnalysisSource: (22)CHAPTER 3. ANALYSIS OF ACCIDENT CHARACTERISTICSpoor emergency response system. First, drivers do not have any basic first aidknowledge since they have never been so trained. Second, there is a lack of skilledemergency rescue personnel. Third, there are no emergency service centres that areespecially established to handle traffic accidents. Fourth, there is lack of research onmedical treatment for traffic injuries.3.5 ACCIDENTS BY TIME OF DAY AND BY WEATHER CONDITIONSFigure 3-3 shows the distribution of accidents by time of day and Figure 3-4presents the weather conditions under which those accidents happened in Changchun,a typical Chinese city. Notice that the accident peak occurred at p.m.peak hours ofmotor vehicle traffic (working hours for drivers). The bicycle traffic has its peak hoursbefore 8 a.m. and after about 5 or 6 p.m.3.6 CONCLUSIONSStatistics in several typical Chinese cities revealed that the followingcharacteristics:(1). A large per cent of accidents involve bicycles.33CHAPTER 3. ANALYSIS OF ACCIDENT CHARACTERISTICS(2). Most severe accidents happen on road sections away from intersections; mostaccidents happen on arterial and major streets, particularly at those sections adjacentto gates of large work unit compounds and other major trip attraction points.(3). Within a city's administration area, most severe accidents happen in suburbanand far-suburban areas. Road sections at urban-suburban boundaries are notmanaged co-operatively and the dominant accidents in these places are bicycle-related.(4). The majority of accident deaths or injuries are from the two largest groups ofroad users: motor vehicle occupants and non-motor vehicle users (mainly cyclists).Pedestrians are only a small victim group.(5). Peasants are the majority victims of vehicle accident deaths, even within somecity administration areas.(6). Accidents are often severe once they happen due to the unfavourable mixedtraffic.(7). There is a comparatively poor emergency response system.34(Statistics of Changchun during 1987-1988)4F. 1CHAPTER 3. ANALYSIS OF ACCIDENT CHARACTERISTICS0100008060402000 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 241 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23Figure 3-3 Accidents By Time of DaySource: (19)CHAPTER 3. ANALYSIS OF ACCIDENT CHARACTERISTICS9087.7so (Statistics of Changchun during 1987-1988)701— 60LusoG. 40302010 5.43.2^3.10.60sunny rain^overcast^snow^windFigure 3-4 Accident Distribution By WeatherSource: (19)36CHAPTER FOURMAJOR CAUSES OF ACCIDENTS4.1 PROPORTION OF ACCIDENTS CAUSED BY DIFFERENT USERSIn China, as in most western countries, the majority of traffic accidents arecaused by motor vehicle drivers. In addition to those caused by motor vehicle drivers,a significant number of accidents are also caused by cyclists (the second largest groupof road-users causing accidents). Shown in Figure 4-1 are those responsible forBeijing's accidents (24). Note that 49 percent of accidents were caused by motorvehicles, 36 percent by bicycles and 10 percent by pedestrians during the period from1986 to 1990.This is also true for many other Chinese cities although the accidents causedby cyclists may vary slightly. For instance, in Changchun during 1987-1988, driversalone were responsible for about 70 percent of all accidents (19) while cyclists amongthe non-driver factors caused the majority of accidents. Shown in Figure 4-2 are theaccidents in Changchun caused by road users other than motor vehicle drivers. InXian, cyclists were responsible for 26-29 % of the total accidents during 1980-1981and in 1981 they were responsible for 16.3% of the total 147 deaths and 33.7 % ofthe total injuries (20).37OTHERS5.2%^PEDESTRIANS10.0%**** " " • • • ' • • • • " • • ' • • "........ ....................• • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • * • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •............ .......... .............• • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • - • • • • • •^- • • • • • • •..... ................. ........ ......• • • • • • - • • • • • • • • • • • • • •^• • • • • • • • • • • • •.......................... .... ...... .... .......... ....... .... ... ......... ... .. ..... . . . . . . . . . ......... ... ...... ......... ...... .......... ........ .............. .......... ........... ........ ..... ..............CHAPTER 4. MAJOR CAUSES OF ACCIDENTSFigure 4-1 Casualty AccidentsCaused by Road-Users in Beijing(1986-1990)Source: (24)38CHAPTER 4. MAJOR CAUSES OF ACCIDENTS501.cyclists2.others^40^ 3. pedestrians4.mechanical faults5.third parties^L. LIZ 30^ 6. roads7. management personnelwa.20101 2 3 4 5 6 7Figure 4-2 Accidents by Non-drivers' Causes(Statistics of Changchun in 1987-1988)Source: (19)39CHAPTER 4. MAJOR CAUSES OF ACCIDENTS4.2 ACCIDENTS CAUSED BY MOTOR VEHICLESThe accidents caused by motor vehicle drivers in Changchun, and by motorvehicles in Beijing are shown in Figure 4-3 and Figure 4-4, respectively. Analysis ofthe causes in both cities highlights the four aspects of accidents caused by motorvehicles: (1). drivers' violations of traffic laws and regulations; (2). drivers'carelessness and misjudgment; (3). vehicles' mechanical faults. (4). problems in theroad facility and traffic management.4.2.1 DRIVERS' VIOLATIONS OF TRAFFIC LAWS AND REGULATIONSThe violations of traffic laws and regulations by drivers are the major causesof accidents. Drivers in China are supposed to have knowledge of traffic laws andregulations and thus they are supposed to respect these regulations. In the followingdiscussions, traffic regulations refer to both traffic laws and regulations for simplicity.The fact is that many drivers do not obey traffic regulations. Typical drivingoffenses are: "Driving against regulations", " operating vehicles against regulations","exceeding speed limits", "drinking driving", "driving without a driver's licence" and"overtaking illegally" (19), see Figure 4-3.4040353025w20wccCHAPTER 4. MAJOR CAUSES OF ACCIDENTS1. driving against regulations2. carelessness3. operating vehicles against regulations4. exceeding speed limits5. drinking driving6. driving without a driver's licence7. overtaking illegally8. overtaking on opposing traffic lanes9. trying to go first1510501Figure 4-3 Accidents by Drivers' Faults(Statistics of Changchun in 1987-1988)Source: (19)1111.1MI 2^3^4^5^6^7^8^9411 5^6^7^8^9 1025W0 20I—ZILI 150CCLIJD.10CHAPTER 4. MAJOR CAUSES OF ACCIDENTS1. Driving on the wrong side of the road2. Carelessness3. Going through red lights4. Overtaking illegally5. Others6. Driving in pedestrian lanes7. Travelling too close to the vehicle in front8. Not giving way at pedestrian crossings9. Mechanical faults10. Drunken drivingFigure 4-4 Major Causes of Casualty Accidents in Beijing byMotor Vehicles (1986-1990)-^ Source: (24)42CHAPTER 4. MAJOR CAUSES OF ACCIDENTSNotice that in Figure 4-3, the cause "driving against regulations" accounts forabout 42% of the driver-error accidents. This category includes the part of violationssuch as going through red lights and disobeying stop signs, etc, but excludes the otherpart that have been specified in this figure in the detailed terms of violations.Beijing's statistics present more detailed causes, see Figure 4-4. Note that"Driving on the wrong side of roads", "Going through red lights", "Overtaking illegally"- three out of the four major accident causes are due to the violations of trafficregulations.Traffic signals and signs are not positively respected. When traffic police areoff duty in the evenings as they are in most Chinese cities, drivers tend not to waitat intersections for green signals. Stop signs are not obeyed because it is commonknowledge that the chance of police coverage is minimal.Drinking driving has not become one of the top problems in comparison tomany other accident causes, as shown in Beijing's and Changchun's statistics.However, there is a lack of ordinary people's awareness about the extent of alcohol'seffects on drivers, unlike in the Western countries. Further statistics about theseverity of drinking driving are unavailable, but no optimism can be assumed in43CHAPTER 4. MAJOR CAUSES OF ACCIDENTSChina's ability to solve this problem which has defied solution elsewhere.People in China have the impression that many drivers (the majority of themare male) do like drinking. Alcohol-related drinks can be easily bought in stores andrestaurants. Furthermore, drinking beer or wine is generally regarded by ordinarypeople as almost-non-alcohol or less-alcohol drinks, compared to the more popularmale-consuming liquors of high alcohol content. The percentage of alcohol contentis normally higher than that in North America.4.2.2 DRIVERS' CARELESSNESS AND MISJUDGMENTDrivers tend to overestimate the capability of their vehicles and their drivingskills under complex situations. Included in this category are careless driving,overtaking in the opposing traffic lanes, overtaking illegally and trying to go firstwithout yielding. Drivers are normally required to have three to six months trainingin traffic safety. The complexity of the human-road-vehicle-environment system inChina, such as the mixed traffic and the road-users' behaviour with Chinesecharacteristics, really makes any carelessness and misjudgment extremely dangerous.Such a conclusion was reached from a survey conducted by the Beijing TrafficEngineering Institute (22).44CHAPTER 4. MAJOR CAUSES OF ACCIDENTS4.2.3 MECHANICAL FAULTS OF MOTOR VEHICLESMechanical faults are another cause of accidents worth noting, although thiscause is not that statistically significant. The recent economic reform allows theexistence of a situation that connect productivity with an individual's salary. When thisreform is applied to transport companies, people tend to place more emphasis onmoney-making and ignore vehicle maintenance. This is more serious in privatebusiness since they often own older vehicles and try to cut necessary operating andmaintenance costs to maximize profits.4.2.4 PROBLEMS FROM ROAD FACILITY AND TRAFFIC MANAGEMENTThe poor road conditions added to the vehicle mix of tractors and bicyclesincrease the potential for accidents. There is roughly 1.03 million kilometres ofroadway in China, about 80 per cent of which is low-quality or substandard. Thesesubstandard roads have no traffic control systems, no zebra crossings and no lanesto separate the motor vehicles, bicycles and other road-users (22).Traffic signs, signals and road markings, etc, are not informative or completeenough to get drivers through a potentially dangerous location. The causes "driving45CHAPTER 4. MAJOR CAUSES OF ACCIDENTSon the opposing traffic lanes", "carelessness", "overtaking illegally or on the opposingtraffic lanes", "not giving way at pedestrian crossings" and "trying to go first" inBeijing's and Changchun's statistics imply that either there is a lack of concern forsafety or sufficient information has not been provided by the traffic control system.4.3 ACCIDENTS CAUSED BY CYCLISTS AND PEDESTRIANSBeijing's statistics show that disobeying traffic regulations by cyclists is themajor cause of accidents compared to the other cyclists' faults, see Figure 4-5.Included in this category are the causes "going through red lights", "turning withoutsignalling", "cycling in pedestrian lanes", "cycling on the wrong side of the street","cycling in motor vehicle lanes" and "carrying passengers on the back seat". It is illegalto carry passengers on the back seat of a bicycle in China but as can be seen frommany photos, this law is often ignored.Education and enforcement of traffic regulations has not yet fully reachedcyclists or pedestrians. It is a positive sign that cyclists have been forced to obey citytraffic signals in recent years. However, enforcement of traffic rules on cyclists ismainly executed by the organized citizen inspectors. Cyclists tend not to be seriouswith the citizen inspectors.46CHAPTER 4. MAJOR CAUSES OF ACCIDENTS3025WC 2aV15ccW0- 10101. Going through red lights2. Turning without signalling3. Cycling in pedestrian lanes4. Cycling on the wrong side of the street5. Carelessness6. Cycling in motor lanes7. Speeding8. Carrying passengers on the back seat9. Overloading10. Poor riding skillsFigure 4-5 Major Causes of Casualty Accidents in Beijing byBicycles (1986-1990)Source: (24)47CHAPTER 4. MAJOR CAUSES OF ACCIDENTSAmong the road users, there are conflicting attitudes towards each other andlack of courtesy such as yielding. Cyclists' and pedestrians' attitudes towards driversmay be that drivers dare not hit them. Cyclists may cycle and make sudden turnswherever and whenever they wish, while drivers seldom yield to the non-motorvehicle users and take it for granted that others should get out of their ways.Due to these conflicting attitudes, some road-users appear to ignore the othersand do whatever they feel like doing. Turning without signalling (sudden sharpturning without even careful observation) and cycling in wrong places for cyclists ownconvenience (cycling in pedestrian lanes, on the wrong side of the street and in motorvehicle lanes, etc) are a few of typical examples shown by cyclists. A significantproportion of accidents were caused by these behaviours, shown in Figure 4-5.Pedestrians are very vulnerable to severe accidents in China, although thepercentage of pedestrian victims is small compared to the large number of cyclistvictims. Pedestrians have not been forced to follow traffic signals in most cities andthey may cross streets wherever they wish. Occasionally this phenomenon may alsobe seen in North America. The big differences are the fact that China has so manypeople and that drivers do not yield to pedestrians. These differences makepedestrians very vulnerable to accidents in China. Motor vehicle drivers have toskilfully zigzag through the crowds of cyclists and pedestrians using loud horns but48CHAPTER 4. MAJOR CAUSES OF ACCIDENTSfew stop to yield.4.4 CONCLUSIONMotor vehicle drivers are responsible for most accidents and cyclists are thesecond. The fact that road users do not obey traffic laws is the first major cause ofaccidents. For drivers, driving on the wrong side of the road, going through red lightsand overtaking caused the majority of the accidents. Cyclists cause accidents by goingthrough red lights, making sudden turns and cycling in the wrong places.Drivers' carelessness and misjudgment caused another significant proportionof accidents. Self-centred attitudes and lack of courtesy and mutual respect amongall the road users increase the accident potentials. This is made worse by the mixedtraffic without order.Problems from road facility and traffic management include the fact thatdrivers may not be very well informed of any dangerous sections of road.There are tendencies in some early motorising countries for people not torespect the traffic laws and regulations. In China, the legal system is not yet completefor traffic regulations. The concept of ruling by law is not deeply ingrained in the49CHAPTER 4. MAJOR CAUSES OF ACCIDENTSpeople's mind. Traffic laws or regulations are not taken seriously and generallyregarded as something with little legal effect.50CHAPTER FIVEFUTURE ACCIDENT TREND IN CHINARecent five years accident trends in China appeared to have reached its peakand started to drop.In this chapter, accident trends in China are analyzed incomparison with its trend of economic development. Accident trends in some othercountries are analyzed and compared to help to assess China's traffic safety situation.5.1 TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS AFFECTED BY RATE OF ECONOMICDEVELOPMENTThere appears to be a drop in China's total accidents and injuries since 1987and a drop of deaths since 1988, see Table 2-1. The implementation ofcountermeasures may have contributed to these drops, but it is thought that the slow-down of economic development may have been an even bigger factor. Coopers(25) had made the link between economic activity and accident rates for BritishColumbia, Canada.Since the implementation of the open-door policy and economic reform, rapideconomic development has created an increase in transportation demand which in51CHAPTER 5. FUTURE ACCIDENT TRENDS IN CHINA turn contributed to the increase of road accidents before 1987 and 1988. At that time,the implementation of traffic laws and safety education could not match the rapidincrease of transportation demand. Since late 1988 and 1989, the rate of economicdevelopment was slowed owing to the Chinese government's adjusted policies, as wellas the changed policies of other countries' trading with China. Consequentlytransportation demand was lowered. The Chinese accident statistics from the wholenation and from the urban areas also follow this downward trend of the economicdevelopment.The economic activity in developing countries may also be proportional to theaccident rates. India's accident trends are shown in Figure 5-1. Note that theaccidents, deaths and injuries have kept increasing. The number of motor vehiclesgrew at a rate of about 100% in five years while the road length was being increasedat a rate of only about 15% (9). China's development of a market economy startedsometime in 1978, after a series of political movements, such as the "CulturalRevolution". The number of road accident deaths had already reached more than50,000 in 1986, 1987 and 1988, after only 8 years' of economic change (1).52accidents Injuries deaths.........•• .... •^...CHAPTER 5. FUTURE ACCIDENT TRENDS IN CHINA thousand250 ^200150100...........0^r ............... .............................1961^1966^1971^1975.............1980^1985Statistical YearFigure 5-1 India's Trend of Traffic AccidentsSource: (9)53CHAPTER 5. FUTURE ACCIDENT TRENDS IN CHINA 5.2 CHINA'S FUTURE TRAFFIC SAFETYFigure 5-2 shows the trends of deaths per 10,000 registered motor vehiclesagainst motorization levels from the U.S.A. (26, 27), India (9) and the 33selected countries during 1980-1985 by Trinca et al (28), compared with China in1985 (10). In this figure, China and India are at the stage where their death rates willprobably grow as the degree of motorisation increases. This is contrary to the factthat in motorised countries the death rates continue to drop.During the stage of early motorising, there may occur a continual increase ofroad accidents as the country goes towards modernization. Accident rates in countriesat the same stage of motorisation as China are probably more sensitive to the rateof economic development. Accident increases can be more drastic than in fullymotorised countries where things have long been stabilized. Once the temporaryeconomic slow-down is reversed and another fast pace of economic developmentcomes, the accident rates may increase.Can China avoid having more than 50,000 annual roadway accident deaths?Effective countermeasures are badly needed to curb any potential climb of futureaccidents.54",,,,..^. . ...3 DECADES IN INDIA .".....^s''. A A^: .---(1181:1985)—^— '- .k LS: ^..-0_-__ —^, • ^AMERICAN HISTORYCHINA 85^‘.4 1923-1989 ,^!1,..^' A1,.„^_NA i^33 COUNTRIES^ ,....^,.... :i .1980-1985 DATA •A^•,^:^: ^ .N .^ ..s.T200I2CHAPTER 5. FUTURE ACCIDENT TRENDS IN CHINA3^10^ 100^300^100^NO(Number of Motor Vehicles per 1,000 People)Figure 5-2 Traffic Safety vs MotorisationSource: (9,10,26,27,28)55CHAPTER 5. FUTURE ACCIDENT TRENDS IN CHINA 5.3 CONCLUSIONThe accident trend in China appears to be dropping in the last two years.However, this drop may have been caused by the slowed-down rate of economicdevelopment in recent two years. Comparisons with some other countries indicatethat China is still at the stage of motorisation at which its accident rates may increaseas its economic development increase.56CHAPTER SIXA MODEL OF ROAD ACCIDENT RATES6.1 INTRODUCTIONThe severity of traffic accidents in a country is the reflection of the country'seconomic situation as well as cultural background and government policies. Amongthose physical variables affecting traffic accidents are: densities of population, roads,vehicles; percentage of trucks (types of trucks), extent of the mixed roadway trafficof different types of motor vehicles and non-motor vehicles, frequency of trips; roadusers' attitudes towards respecting traffic regulations.The complexity of including the traffic system of human-vehicle-road-environment-regulation and the other variables such as culture into a simple modelis almost impossible. The data and graphs in the following discussions suggest asimple global model relating accident rates, traffic safety and personal safety and therate of vehicle ownership or motorisation to the stages of a country's development.6.2 A MODEL OF ROAD ACCIDENT RATES57CHAPTER 6. A MODEL OF ROADWAY ACCIDENT RATES6.2.1 REVIEW OF TRINCA'S STUDYTrinca et al (28) have proposed a relationship between the three variables ofTraffic Safety, Personal Safety and Motorisation in a country that has the form:P- TxM^(1)or,n P -ln T +1n m^(2)where P = Personal Safety-number of deaths per 100,000 people,T = Traffic Safety-number of deaths per 10,000 motor vehicles, andM = Motorisation-number of registered motor vehicles per 1,000 people.Trinca et al's paper pointed out that there is a relationship between the threevariables and the stages of a country's development. Data from 33 countries wereused to draw T-P plane, see Figure 6-1 and the bar graph in a three dimensionalspace in Figure 6-2.58CHAPTER 6. A MODEL OF ROADWAY ACCIDENT RATESP50on. 301 208S147 0a../ 5o3211 2^5^10 20^50 100 200(Deaths per 10,000 Motor Vehicles)^TFigure 6-1 Traffic Safety vs Personal SafetySource: Trinca (28),(9,10,26,27)59CHAPTER 6. A MODEL OF ROADWAY ACCIDENT RATESOO210Figure 6-2 Relationship between Motorisationand Safety Rates by Trinca et al (28)60CHAPTER 6. A MODEL OF ROADWAY ACCIDENT RATESFurthermore, the profiles of the scattered data in T-M plane (Figure 5-2) andin P-M plane (Figure 6-3), together with that in T-P plane (Figure 6-1), are shownin Figure 6-4. The profile in T-M plane shows clearly that the traffic safety (T)improves as motorisation rate (M) increases. The regression of the data reveals thatM and T are highly correlated. The profile in P-M plane reveals that developingcountries with low level of motorisation have low rates of population based-death (P)and P will keep growing as a country further motorizes. When reaching highlymotorisation, P values start to have dropping tendency. The profile in P-T planeillustrates that countries having high vehicle based-death rates (T) have low P; WhenT reduces, P will show an increase and this growing trend will reach a turning pointwhere a dropping trend emerges at high level of motorisation. The three profilesproject a generalized model in the form of a space cluster which pictures the globalroadway safety situation to be discussed in the following.6.2.2 THE MODELThe generalized model is shown in Figure 6-5. The cluster can be divided intothree parts. The beginning part (the lower left leg of the cluster) represents thesituation in the developing countries. Note that countries in this section with low611 10 100 600 MUSA History (1923-1989)33 Countries (1980-1985)hina 19853 decades in India (1961-1985)1P100F. 50030g 20510532CHAPTER 6. A MODEL OF ROADWAY ACCIDENT RATES3^ 50^300^1,000MOTORISATION ( VEHICLES PER 1000 POPULATION )Figure 6-3 Personal Safety vs MotorisationSource: (9,10,26,27,28)62CHAPTER 6. A MODEL OF ROADWAY ACCIDENT RATESFigure 6-4 Traffic Safety vs Motorisationvs Personal SafetySource: (9,10,26,27,28)63CHAPTER 6. A MODEL OF ROADWAY ACCIDENT RATESFigure 6-5 A Model of Road Accident Rates64CHAPTER 6. A MODEL OF ROADWAY ACCIDENT RATESmotorisation levels can have extremely high rates of vehicle-based death butfortunately low rates of population-based deaths.The final outcome at the right side of the cluster strip represents the situationin the developed countries. Most countries in this part of cluster are developedcountries with high motorisation levels. They tend to have comparatively high ratesof population-based death but lowest rates of vehicle-based deaths.The section in between represents the situation in the fast-developingcountries. With faster rates of motorisation, they tend to have highest population-based death rates while having reduced, to an extent, their vehicle-based death rates.The premise used in this figure is that all the countries have a fairly commonstart point with very high rate of T and very low rate of P and will probably have acommon end point with low rate of T and some acceptable rate of P. Only the pathsconnecting the early stage and later stage differ from one country to another. Thedifferent paths reflect technology, knowledge and culture.6.2.3 THE IMPLICATION OF THIS MODEAt the early stage of motorisation, developing countries have unsafe traffic65CHAPTER 6. A MODEL OF ROADWAY ACCIDENT RATESsystems. Conventionally, further increasing their motorisation levels will affect moreof their population as indicated by the higher rate of personal safety combined withtheir commonly large population density, which means more deaths would beexpected from traffic accidents. Once the motorisation rate reaches a certain level,the population-based death rate peaks.Some developed countries have reached an advanced phase of traffic safetyand even the population-based death rate has started to drop. This drop may haveresulted from the slower increase of motorisation rate with a much reduced trafficsafety rate.6.2A TIME INDEPENDENT AND STAGE INDEPENDENT OF THE MODELThis model of roadway safety rates can be the dependent variable of eithertime or the stage of development or both. The model is dynamic, that is, there is bothan economic force and a time dependant force that somehow makes the resultingaccident rate change. Shown in these figures are data from the 33 selected countries(1980-85), China (1985), India (1961-85) and the USA (1923-89).Whether or not and how the safety level of a country's traffic system has beenimproved can be examined in this model. Observing its data trend, we see how the66CHAPTER 6. A MODEL OF ROADWAY ACCIDENT RATEScountry's position in this model changed as their motorisation progressed. TheAmerican and Indian data trends are examples of how rates of roadway safety havechanged through the years' work on their traffic systems. Notice the U.S.A. data hasreached its position at highly motorized stage while India has been moving its dataupwards along the cluster.A country's road accident rate may also demonstrate their stage ofdevelopment, as described in the model. The data from the 33 countries and Chinashow the global roadway safety situation at a fixed time, the period from 1980 to1985. This type of data gives a comparison of safety situation with other countries ata fixed time and shows countries' states of development. China's 1985 data shows thatChina is at the early motorising stage and seemingly has to face further accident rateincreases as its motorisation level keeps growing.The dynamic nature of the model implies that the relative road safety of acountry is always changing. Some countries may change more than others. Whetherthey get better or worse depends on their stage of development.The model does hold out the prospect that road accident rates in more andmore countries will tend to move towards the section of a highly developed stage.Eventually the scattered data in the model may be concentrated into the end point67CHAPTER 6. A MODEL OF ROADWAY ACCIDENT RATESof the model for developed countries. The low vehicle-based death rate and a verylow rate of population-based death rate should then prevail. The low population-based death rate indicates that society will be least affected by the mobility causedby motorisation.6.3 IMPLICATION FOR ROAD SAFETY POLICYThere are differences between the developing countries today and thecountries that pioneered the use of motor vehicles although some similarities do exist.During the early years of motor vehicle use, knowledge and technology on how todesign and build cars and roads were limited. The management of roadway operatingsystems such as the traffic signals, signs and markings and other traffic regulations aswell as the emergency response systems were very limited. This knowledge andtechnology is available to today's developing countries however, they may not beused. This technology transfer to developing countries in the early stage ofmotorisation is extremely important to them and it may alter the proposed model.Currently in developed countries, the knowledge of the human-car-road-environment system has reached a higher level than existed in the U.S.A. in say 1910to 1930. A complete data collection system on roadway accident statistics enablesbetter knowledge of safety-related areas and the corresponding countermeasures68CHAPTER 6. A MODEL OF ROADWAY ACCIDENT RATESpossible. The fact that the safety effects of seat-belt use have saved many involvedin collisions in developed countries is one of the examples. The stern restriction ofdrinking driving due to the knowledge of the deadly effects of alcohol and drug abuseis another example.One of the similarities between the pioneer days and today's developingcountries may be the large speed difference of the mixed vehicle stream on theroadways. This may have come about because of the unavailability of special roadsin the early years of the pioneer countries and in developing countries of today dueto limited budgets to finance the work. Therefore there is a high opportunity foraccidents since a high risk exposure is caused by the large speed differences. Theresult is that today's developing countries have large (T) vehicle based deaths butsmall (D) population based deaths because of small (M) motorisation level.These similarities and differences between today and yesterday, late stage andearly stage of development are reflected by the low vehicle based death ratios (T) buthigh population based death ratios (P) existed in developed countries today, and veryhigh T but low P that appear to be with countries of both today and yesterday atearly stage of development.However, there seems to be too big a gap between today's developing69CHAPTER 6. A MODEL OF ROADWAY ACCIDENT RATEScountries and developed countries (even at their very early time). Developingcountries may have to go through the period of the ever-increasing population-baseddeath rate before the trends turn down, as long as their motorisation keeps growing.Exactly how knowledge and technology can be used to turn this around is not known.In general, the world is more and more relying on highway transportation, asindicated by the high level of motorisation in developed countries and the largenumber of overly used vehicles in developing countries. Therefore there is anincreasing potential of accidents and traffic safety in the world should be closelymonitored.The model proposed in this chapter does help illustrate how Traffic Safety (T),Population Safety (P) and Motorisation (M) may be related to stages of a countriesdevelopment. There is nothing inherent in the model that says a country must gothrough these stages. The model does nothing more than report on a few observeddata. The underlying mechanism that may drive the model has yet to be discovered.70CHAPTER SEVEN- ROADWAY SAFETY COUNTERMEASURESIn this chapter, some aspects of road safety countermeasures taken in Chinaare reviewed. A complete assessment of current countermeasures from the Chineseperspectives is unavailable. Also, a few future countermeasure that may be applicableto China are discussed.7.1 IMPROVING EDUCATION AND LAW ENFORCEMENTChina has realized that the country has to be run by law and so does theroadway system, even though streets are still informally called horse-roads in Chinese.As discussed previously, a large proportion of accidents are due to disobeying trafficlaws. To counter this problem, three things are being attempted. First, the trafficcontrol systems are being completed and traffic regulations being clarified. Second,road users are being educated on traffic systems and regulations. Third, the lawviolators are being challenged.A set of strict traffic regulations and a good traffic control system are essentialto safe traffic operations. With a good unified traffic control system throughout thecountry accompanied by a set of complete, clear and strict but practicable traffic laws71CHAPTER 7. ROADWAY SAFETY COUNTERMEASURESand regulations, good traffic orders can be expected.Another objective is to have traffic regulations known and understood by all.Education includes, first, letting ordinary people know the traffic regulations andsecond, letting people know the dangers of violating them. The involvement of officialnews medium in this issue has started. Some examples are: the severe trafficaccidents are reported by television news; street posters similar to commercialadvertisements are used; TV programs and fictional movies involving traffic safetyeducation have been made; and the newspaper "Chinese Traffic Safety" has beenavailable free to drivers in some areas (29). However, many cyclists in China do notyet have any idea of the meaning of many traffic signs (only motor vehicle drivershave to know them all by law).To challenge the traffic-law violators, a large number of urban citizens arebeing organized both by conscription and voluntarily by local governments to helppolice enforce traffic laws. For example in 1989 in Beijing, 12.47 million traffic-lawviolators were stopped, at a rate of 30 thousands a day (13.5% of increase from1988). Among them, 10.19 million were fined (20.6% of increase from 1988).Statistics are inflated relative to moving violations since they include many of bicyclerelated incidents such as bicycle parking in the wrong places. Furthermore, 50violators causing accidents were sentenced and some other 150 were arrested by the72CHAPTER 7. ROADWAY SAFETY COUNTERMEASURESpolice (30).However, substantial improvement to people's respect of traffic laws cannotbe expected soon. In the West, the traffic system works well by relying on the trustthat the vast majority of road users will obey traffic control systems. For example,most people obey traffic signals at intersections without constant police's surveillance.In China, many of the road users do not have such a concept of either trusting orwillingly obeying a traffic control system. They are accustomed to enduring certainrisks of potential traffic accidents. With luck and the fact that there are not yet asmany motor vehicles, they often avoid an accident. However, as traffic increases, theirchance of avoiding an accident decreases. The enforcement of traffic law should bestricter and education programs need to be more persuasive.The roadway vehicles including cars, trucks and rubber tired tractors are sucha modern item of machinery that the majority of the citizens have little knowledgeof their safe use. The fact that this machinery is being run without complete safetyprocedures being followed or being known is turning it into a mass killer, especiallyin developing countries. For this reason, both developing and developed countriesshould share not only the hardware technology but also the concept of using it safely,especially in the rapid motorising countries.73CHAPTER 7. ROADWAY SAFETY COUNTERMEASURES7.2 IMPROVING SCIENTIFIC LEVELS OF SAFETY MANAGEMENTThe establishment of a comprehensive evaluation system of roadway trafficsafety has been proposed (15). It is of important significance in China to evaluate thelevel of traffic safety for the country as a whole, as well as for any specific regionsand to seek ways to improve traffic safety situation, prevent the increasing trend andreduce economic losses from traffic accidents.Research on traffic accidents is being conducted extensively in many Chineseacademic institutions and traffic departments. Accident characteristics andcountermeasures suitable to China, as well as the technology and experience frommore advanced countries, are also being studied. For example, research on thesuitability of a person for driving a motor vehicle is being conducted. Since mostdrivers are professional drivers, it is possible in China to use some appropriatescientific methods to evaluate drivers and to hire only those having good physical andpsychological profiles and good driving skill.The knowledge of safety management personnel is being updated. There havebeen many training programs available in academic institutions and some otherorganizations. Some of the traffic and safety management personnel can go fortraining relating to traffic accident and safety. Courses are also being given to74CHAPTER 7. ROADWAY SAFETY COUNTERMEASURESuniversity and college students studying the relevant expertise. Traffic police are beingequipped with improved facilities. More police vehicles, telecommunication networks,alcohol-detectors, speed-detectors and video equipment, etc, are being supplied.However, the levels of their mobility and communications are still at an early stageand much must be learned to make them completely effective in China (29).7.3 IMPROVING SAFETY FEATURES OF BICYCLESIn urban areas, China is trying to separate bicycle traffic from motor-vehicletraffic. Wherever possible, streets are divided either by lane fences or lane markingsseparating the two traffic streams. However, many streets are not so visibly divided,mainly for the reason of limited budgets.Facing the reality that the bicycle will be the major transportation facility forquite a long time in the future, China should make greater efforts to modify bicyclesafety features. For the near future, mandatory installation of bicycle reflectors andlights could be a practical option in urban areas. For the long run, bicycle brakes,turning signals, reflectors, light system and other built-in safety features should bestudied and re-designed if necessary. Bicycle design and manufacture should be partof a traffic management system.75CHAPTER 7. ROADWAY SAFETY COUNTERMEASURESMany people in China can now afford color TVs which cost about 10 timesmore than a bicycle. However, they may be riding a poorly maintained bicycle withoutgood brakes, night lights or reflectors. No one bothers to wear helmets when ridinga bicycle. Only motorcyclists are required by Chinese law to wear helmets. If a safermodel of bicycle can be supplied and marketed, only then can we expect a newpurchasing "hot wave" in China to buy and own these new models. The new bicycleswould be symbols of being modern. Such a bicycle revolution should come to China,the largest bicycle society in the world.7.4 ENCOURAGING PROPOSALS FROM ROAD USERS AND CONDUCTINGSAFETY INVESTIGATIONSAlthough human errors caused most accidents, improved roadway facilities andtraffic environments, together with appropriate traffic control measures, should beable to reduce the potential and consequence of accidents. Accident sites should beanalyzed to find out the safety related problems in designs, constructions, andmaintenances. This is particularly true at frequent accident locations.In addition, measures should be taken before accidents occur. Many road usersare experiencing similar traffic situations routinely and their voices requesting safertraffic are valuable. The questionable locations they identify should be studied by76CHAPTER 7. ROADWAY SAFETY COUNTERMEASURESsafety experts so that corrective measures can be taken in time to avoid accidents. Itis very difficult in China for individuals to communicate directly with managementdepartments. Those individuals who care for "public business" get no incentives. Forthese reasons, it is important that road users be easily able to contact officials intraffic safety branches and that they be aware that they can influence where andwhen certain countermeasures should be taken.For example, due to the limited budget, not all of the intersections and theentrance-exit gates of trip generating units are equipped with any traffic signs orsignals. Road users' lobbying may be able to help decision makers to identify andsolve some of these safety problems.7.5 EXCHANGING INFORMATION AND UTILIZING AVAILABLESTATISTICSInformation and statistics on traffic accidents should be more easily accessedand more fully utilized. China has been collecting accident statistics at various levelsof government for a number of years. A great amount of work on safety andaccidents has already been done by related departments and organizations but theinformation is not widely distributed.77CHAPTER 7. ROADWAY SAFETY COUNTERMEASURESTraffic accidents in China have to be solved according to the Chinese situation,which is challenging to the Chinese, as well as foreign experts from other countrieswho come to help. Traffic accidents are a world-wide phenomenon and informationexchange on accident statistics and countermeasures with international organizationsis beneficial to all communities. Not only will China benefit from the experience inthe other countries, but the others, especially countries with similar situations maybenefit from China's experience as well. The actual success of any new road safetycountermeasures will depend very much on how well it is adjusted to fit the needs ofChina.78CHAPTER EIGHTSUMMARYIn this paper, China's roadway traffic safety is reviewed and its accidentstatistics from various sources as well as those of a few other nations are presentedand analyzed throughout the chapters.In Chapter 1, traffic characteristics in China, as well as the general socio-economic background of the country are introduced. Compared with the largest-population-countries in the world in Chapter 2, the number of accident fatalities inChina is the highest. The safety of its traffic system is in very poor condition, asindicated by its high rate of deaths per 10,000 motor vehicles, about 19 times greaterthan in the United States. This high vehicle based death rate indicates a country inthe early stages of motorisation.Accident patterns are analyzed in Chapter 3 and their characteristics are foundto differ significantly from those expected in North America. The characteristics ofChina's road accidents are: high proportions are bicycle-related accidents; moresevere accidents are in suburban areas; most accidents happen on road sections awayfrom intersections, especially at gates of major trip-attraction unit compounds; mostcasualties are peasants.79CHAPTER 8. SUMMARYIn Chapter 4, accident causes are analyzed. The available statistics revealedthat drivers were responsible for most accidents and cyclists however significantlycaused the second largest number of accidents; violating traffic laws and regulationsby both drivers and cyclists caused the majority of accidents. It is concluded thattraffic laws and regulations in China are poorly respected; there are self-centredattitudes or lack of courtesy in sharing streets among various road-users; and the poorroad facilities and traffic managements in many places should be partly blamed forcausing accidents.The analysis in Chapter 5 of accident trends in recent years indicates that thereduced rate of economic development may have caused a temporary drop inaccident rates. Once the normal rate of development returns, China may haveanother increase of accidents unless further effective countermeasures are adopted.A model of roadway accident rates that extends the ideas of Trinca et al'sstudy is presented in Chapter 6. The stages of countries' development are connectedwith the rates of Traffic Safety (deaths per 10,000 motor vehicles), Personal Safety(deaths per 100,000 people) and Motorisation (number of registered motor vehiclesper 1,000 people). The model hypotheses that accident rates in developing countriestend to move towards the rates found in more developed countries.80CHAPTER 8. SUMMARYThe model assumes that a relationship exists between T, Traffic Safety, P,Population Safety and M, Motorisation such that when vehicles are first introduced,motorisation is low, as is the population based death rate but Traffic Safety,measured by a vehicle based death rate, is high. The other extreme of the model iscomplete motorisation under which condition there is a decreasing but fairly highpopulation based death rate and a low and decreasing vehicle based death rate.Between these two extremes is a relationship that can be drawn from the data thatdistinguished developing from developed countries. The mechanism of therelationship is beyond the scope of the present study.China has recognized the severeness of its traffic safety situation and is startingto implement countermeasures. Some of the existing countermeasures are reviewedin Chapter 7 and suggestions for possible new countermeasures are discussed. Basedon the information from previous chapters, countermeasures should deal with:violations of traffic laws and regulations, improvement of the roadway and trafficmanagement, and improvement of safety of bicycles. Any successful countermeasurestaken from other countries must reflect the unique traffic situation of China.81BIBLIOGRAPHY1.National Statistics Bureau, Beijing, China.2.Fang, S.Q., "The Present Conditions & Characteristics of Road Traffic in China &Measures Which Have Been Adopted", International Association of Traffic andSafety Science Research, Vol.12 No.2, 1988, pp.34-41.3. Beijing Social Economic Statistics Yearbook, Beijing Statistics Bureau, ChinaStatistics Publisher, Beijing, 1990.4. China Statistics Yearbook, National Statistics Bureau, Beijing, 1989.5. China Statistics Yearbook, National Statistics Bureau, Beijing, 1988.6. China Statistics Yearbook, National Statistics Bureau, Beijing, 1987.7. China Statistics Yearbook, National Statistics Bureau, Beijing, 1986.8. World Road Statistics 1985-1989, International Road Federation, Washington,D.C., Edition 1990.9. Victor, D.J., "Road Accidents in India", International Association of Traffic andSafety Science Research, Vol.13 No.1, 1989, pp. 82-83.10.Yang, Z.S. and Holden, J.A., "Increased Motorisation and Highway Fatalities inthe People's Republic of China", Transportation Research Record 1238,Transportation Research Board, National Research Council, Washington, D.C., 1989,pp. 65-72.11.Urban China Statistics Yearbook, National Statistics Bureau, Beijing, 1990.12.Urban China Statistics Yearbook, National Statistics Bureau, Beijing, 1989.13.Urban China Statistics Yearbook, National Statistics Bureau, Beijing, 1988.14.Urban China Statistics Yearbook, National Statistics Bureau, Beijing, 1987.15.Yian Baojie, "Study on Establishing China's Roadway Safety Evaluation System",Reports on Science and Technology (Chinese), published by Xian Institute ofHighway, 1988.16.Whitt, F. and Wilson, D., "Bicycle Science", MIT Press, Cambridge, Mass.,1982.8217. Shanghai Statistics Bureau, Shanghai, China.18. Beijing Statistics Bureau, Beijing, China.19. Changchun Statistics Bureau, Changchun, China.20. Yan Baojie, "Research on Bicycle Traffic Problems in China", Reports on Scienceand Technology (Chinese), published at Xian Institute of Highways, Sept, 1982.21. Canadian Motor Vehicle Traffic Accident Statistics, collected in cooperation withthe Canadian Council of Motor Transport Administrators, Transport Canada, Ottawa,Canada.22. Froyland, P., "Causes and Consequences of Heavy Freight Vehicle Accident",Symposium on the Role of Heavy Freight Vehicles in Traffic Accidents, published in1987 by Road and Transportation Association of Canada.23. Li Xiao, "National Acts to Curb Road Toll", Page 4 on China Daily (English),October 1, 1991.24. Wen Sha, "Beijing Battles Traffic Offenses", Page 4 on China Daily (English),October 1,1991.25. Peter J. Cooper, "The Effects of Economic Changes on Traffic Safety", InsuranceCorporation of British Columbia, Highway Safety Outlooks Conference, Toronto,Ont., 1986.26. "The Statistical History of the United States-from Colonial Times to 1970",prepared by the United States Bureau of the Census, Basic Books Inc. Publishers,New York, 1976.27. "Fatal Accident Reporting System 1989 - A Decade of Progress", U.S.Department of Transportation, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration,Washington, D.C., March 1991.28. Trinca,G.W. and Johnston,I.R. et al, "Reducing Traffic Injury-A GlobalChallenge", An International Traffic Safety Project of the Royal Australasian Collegeof Surgeons, 1988.29. He Shiying, "Highway Safety in 1986", China Transportation Yearbook (Chinese),China Transportation Yearbook Publisher, Beijing, 1987.30. Kang, Dongsheng, "Traffic Management", Beijing Social Economic StatisticsYearbook, (Chinese) pp.123-124, Beijing Statistics Bureau, Beijing, 1990.83


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