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A British Columbia fishing village Miller, Philip Carl 1978

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A BRITISH COLUMBIA FISHING VILLAGE by PHILIP CARL MILLEE B.Sc.McGill University 1969, M.A. McMaster University 1975 A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOB THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY in THE FACULTY OF GRADUATE STUDIES INTERDISCIPLINARY STUDIES We accept this thesis as conforming to the required standard THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA June 1978 ® P h i l i p Carl M i l l e r In p r e s e n t i n g t h i s t h e s i s in p a r t i a l f u l f i l m e n t o f the requ i rement s f o r an advanced degree at the U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h Co lumb ia , I a g ree that the L i b r a r y s h a l l make i t f r e e l y a v a i l a b l e f o r r e f e r e n c e and s tudy . I f u r t h e r agree t h a t p e r m i s s i o n f o r e x t e n s i v e c o p y i n g o f t h i s t h e s i s f o r s c h o l a r l y purposes may be g r a n t e d by the Head o f my Department o r by h i s r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s . It i s u n d e r s t o o d that c o p y i n g o r p u b l i c a t i o n o f t h i s t h e s i s f o r f i n a n c i a l g a i n s h a l l not be a l l o w e d w i thou t my w r i t t e n p e r m i s s i o n . ftepaxXmen-t—o-f— The U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h Co lumbia 2075 W e s b r o o k P l a c e V a n c o u v e r , C a n a d a V6T 1W5 i ABSTRACT The question of the r e l a t i o n s h i p between society and environment was addressed through the study of a remote f i s h i n g v i l l a g e of seven hundred and f i f t y people. An i n t e r d i s c i p l i n a r y approach was adopted i n which the demographic, economic and s o c i a l aspects of the community were investigated. . The integration of the d i s c i p l i n a r y perspectives was f a c i l i t a t e d by simulation modeling. The population of the v i l l a g e had grown gradually i n size since i t s inception, but a decline occurred i n the 1960*s. The migration rate was correlated with declining f i s h harvests and was concomitant with the expansion of communications with urban centers. A turn-around in migration had recently developed supported by an i n f l u x of people from the southern c i t i e s . Fishing provided the majority of economic opportunity, followed in importance by logging. A survey was conducted to investigate the costs and revenues of the fishermen of the v i l l a g e . D i v e r s i f i c a t i o n was found to characterize the l o c a l f l e e t and analysis showed that the rates of return on investment i n the current year were egualized between vessel types. Social and c u l t u r a l features were found to be c l o s e l y linked to environmental variables. Seasonality i n b i r t h rates was related to the pattern of work, loads. Attitudes toward l o c a l i t y among high school youth were studied through a regional survey. The analysis confirmed the hypothesis that there was a i i greater preference among youth of the v i l l a g e for staying than was indicated in other resource towns of the north Vancouver Island d i s t r i c t . A d i v e r s i t y of formal and informal organizations f a c i l i t a t e d s o c i a l integration, though f a c t i o n a l d i v isions and attitude differences toward future development were present. In response to developmental pressures, a r e -alignment of the t r a d i t i o n a l organizations to focus on regional issues concerned with land and marine resources was taking place. The variable l e v e l s and rate parameters of the demographic, economic and s o c i a l components of the model were spec i f i e d using s t a t i c and time ser i e s data. S e n s i t i v i t y analysis to assess the e f f e c t s of uncertainty, and validation tests against known h i s t o r i c a l changes were conducted. Forecast scenarios i d e n t i f i e d the development options under several l e v e l s of f i s h abundance and investment. The weight given to e c o l o g i c a l versus economic resource management registered disproportionate e f f e c t s due to the i n t e r a c t i o n between investment and migration rates and resource s t o c h a s t i c i t y . This finding argued against a "golden mean" rule for evaluating policy trade-offs and sugggested the importance of using a dynamic, socio-ecological perspective i n designing p o l i c i e s for r u r a l communities., i i i TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION , 1 CHAPTER 1 THE DISCIPLINARY BACKGROUND...................... 4 1.1 ANTHROPOLOGY................ ...... .... .... .... .... .... 6 1. 1.1 MARITIME ANTHROPOLOGY.. .. .......... ..... ... .......,6 1.1.2 ECOLOGICAL ANTHRPOLOGY.............,.... ........... 8 1.2 RESOURCE E C O N O M I C S . . . ....... ,9 1.3 DEMOGRAPHY............................................ 11 1.4 ECOLOGY................. .... .......................... 12 1.4.1 THEORY.............................................12 1.4.2 POLICY OPTIONS IN RESOURCE MANAGEMENT...... ... ..... 13 CHAPTER 2 PHILOSOPHY AND METHODOLOGY....................... 15 2.1 PHILOSOPHICAL BASES OF THE RESEARCH DESIGN............ 16 2.2 SPECIFIC FACTORS IN SOCIAL-ENVIRONMENTAL MODELS....... 22 2.3 FIELD METHODS. • . • •'. • . . . • . . • ......... • • . • . • • • • • • • . • ... . 24 CHAPTER 3 BACKGROUND TO THE FIELD STUDY.................... 31 3.1 INTRODUCTION.............. ........... ......... ... ..... 31 3.2 COMING TO SOINTULA.................................... 32 3.3 SOINTULA IN A REGIONAL CONTEXT..... .. . ........ . , . ...... 33 CHAPTER 4 POPULATION.... ......••••> •• ....... ........... 48 4.1 DESCRIPTION OF THE DATA BASE.... ...... ..... ...... .... • 49 4.2 POPULATION STRUCTURE.................... ...... ... .....50 4.3 DEMOGRAPHIC PROCESSES:BIRTHS AND DEATHS 54 i v 4.4 DEMOGRAPHIC PROCESS ES:MIGRATION .......................56 4.5 ATTITUDE FACTORS IN MIGRATION.................. . . ..... 62 4.6 CAUSES OF DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE.......................... 65 CHAPTER 5 THE ECONOMY OF SOINTULA..........................82 5.1 INTRODUCTION..,....................................... 83 5.2 THE COSTS AND REVENUES OF FISHING., .............. .....92 5.2.1 AIMS ......... .............. ..... ................ 92 5.2.2 METHOD......................... ............... .....92 5.2.3 OBSERVATIONS........,.............................. 96 5.2.4 ANALYSIS AND CONCLUSIONS........................... 102 5.3 MARKETING OF FISH IN SOINTULA......................... 115 5.4 LABOUR AND LABOUR MOBILITY............................ 117 5.5 OCCUPATIONAL MOBILITY AND MIGRATION................... 120 5.5.1 DYNAMICS OF A TWO SPECIES FISHERY.......... ....•., . 120 5.5.2 LOGGING AND OTHER OCCUPATIONS .122 5.6 RETAIL SECTOR...... ..... .... .......... ................127 5.7 LAND USE PATTERN ...................................... 129 5.8 SUMMARY. .131 CHAPTER 6 ECOLOGICAL ANTHROPOLOGY.......................... 145 6.1 INTRODUCTION .........................,.,..... ... ..... 145 6.2 SEASONALITY IN BIRTH RATES............................ 147 6.3 SOCIAL FACTORS IN MIGRATION....... .................... 151 6.3.1 A REGIONAL SURVEY OF MOBILITY PLANS................ 151 6.3.2 THE INTEGRATION OF IMMIGANTS......>>........... .. . • • 157 6.4 MARITIME COMMUNITY;AN ADAPTIVE PERSPECTIVE............ 158 6.4.1 INTRODUCTION........................ ............. , .158 6.4.2 FAMILIAL LEVEL... 159 V 6.4.3 INFORMAL AND FORMAL ASSOCIATIONS 161 6.5 SUMM ARY........................... .................... 166 CHAPTER 7 A MODEL OF THE SOCIAL SYSTEM: PART I............. 173 7.1 INTRODUCTION.......................................... 173 7.2 ORGANIZATION OF THE MODEL............................. 173 7.3 SPECIFICATION OF COMPONENTS........... ................ 174 7.4 VALIDATION. , .. . . ..... . ..... ... ..180 7.5 SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS.................. ........ ........184 7.6 CONCLUSIONS..............................................190 CHAPTER 8 A MODEL OF THE SOCIAL SYSTEM: PART I I . . . . . . . . . . . . 191 8.1 INTRODUCTION................ ......... , .,....... 191 8.2 THE EFFECTS OF CHANGING HARVESTS AND VESSELS.......... 192 8.2.1 BACKGROUND TO CURRENT REGULATION...V............... 192 8.2.2 METHOD OF STU DY 193 8.2.3 RESULTS. ..... .....196 8.2.4 A TYPOLOGY OF CHANGE........... ... .................199 8.2.5 DYNAMICS OF CHANGE................................•202 8.2.6 SUMMARY............................................ 209 8.3 ROBUSTNESS OF MODEL 210 8.4 INCOME INSU RANGE. 214 8.5 CONCLUSIONS..... ....... .... ........... ................215 REFERENCES CITED ........ 2 2 % APPENDIX 1 HISTORY OF SOINTULA............. ................243 A.I A BIOGRAPHICAL ACCOUNT. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2^3 A. 2 INTERPRETATION AND ANALYSIS. ................ ....... ...252 A.2.1 KINSHIP AND SOCIAL CONTROL..... .... ................252 A.2.2 ADAPTATION AND CHANGE.......v . ...... .... ...... .... 254 v i APPENDIX 2 LOCAL MANAGEMENT OF RESOURCES...................261 A. 1 ABIOTIC ENVIRONMENT. .................. ...... ........... 261 A.1.1 THE EVENTS OF THE IRISH STARDUST SPILL....... 261 A. 1.2 POTENTIAL DAMAGES OF A MAJOR SPILL 263 A.2 RENEWABLE RESOURCES................... ........ ... ..... 268 A. 2. 1 ENHANCEMENT... ... .-. ... ... . ..... .... .... . . .. ...... . . 268 A. 2.2 AREA #27 CONTROVERSY. .. 273 A.2.3 THE CHUM MANAGEMENT COMMITTEE......................275 A.3 SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC FACTORS IN FISHERIES MANAGEMENT...277 A.3.1 SOCIAL FACTORS.....................................277 A. 3. 2 ECONOMIC FACTORS. . .... , . . ,. ..................... . ...281 A.4 CONCLUSIONS: LOCAL MANAGEMENT OF LOCAL RESOURCES?...,. 283 APPENDIX 3 STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF B.C. COMMUNITIES........ 287 A.1 INTRODUCTION. .. 287 A.2 DISCRIMINANT FUNCTION ANALYSIS........................ 288 A.3 CLUSTER ANALYSIS...... ................................ 292 A.4 CONCLUSIONS...... ........... .......................... 293 APPENDIX 4 DATA BASE FOR THE SOINTULA FISHING FLEET........ 294 APPENDIX 5 FORTRAN PROGRAM FOR THE MODEL...... ........300 v i i LIST OF TABLES 1.1 DISCIPLINARY BASIS.......................,..... ........5 4.1 INFORMATION SOURCE FOR POPULATION ..................... 51 4.2 DEPENDENCY RATIO,.... ... ..... ......... ........... .... . .53 4.3 DEATHS AND MARRIAGES.. .........54 4.4 VITAL RATES.................. .......... ,.... ........... 54 4.5 MIGRATION ESTIMATES..... ..... ..... ....... ............ . . 56 4.5A SCHOOL RECORD..... ..........v....,,,....... ....... . ... 58 4.6 EMIGRATION AND IMMIGRATION............................. 59 4.7 NET MIGRATION.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . , . . . . 6 0 4.8 EMIGRATIONA AND IMMIGRATION AVERAGES.....,............. 60 4.9 NET MIGRATION AVERAGES. ........ ...... w, ......... ....... 60 4.10 RESIDENTIAL PREFERENCES................, 63 4.11 RESIDENTIAL PREFERENCES AS STAY/LEAVE. .... . ... . . . ... . . 63 4.12 FLEET MOBILITY........... ... ............... .......... .66 4.13 REGRESSION OF MIGRATION ON CATCH...................... 67 5.7 NUMBER OF BOATS....... .... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..... 100 5.8 SAMPLE SIZE ........................... ................ 100 5.9 T-TEST FOR DIFFERENCES BETHEEN VESSELS................ 103 5. 10 EFFICIENCY RATIOS..................... ...... .......... 105 5.11 DEFINITION OF EFFICIENCIES............................ 105 5.12 COMPARISON OF EFFICIENCIES............................ 108 5.13 CONTINGENCY PLANS........... ...... .... ........ ........ 113 5. 14 OCCUPATIONAL STRUCTURE. . . ... . . .... .. . ...... , ... ........ 123 5.1 DESCRIPTION OF SOINTULA FLEET......................... 140 5.2 ALERT BAY SEINERS..................................... 141 5.3 GILLNETTERS................. ...... .................... 142 v i i i 5.4 COMBINATION BOATS.. .. .... . ... ....... . „1*»3 5.5 TBGLLEBS...................... 144 5. 6 SEINERS. 145 6.9 INFORMAL ASSOCIATIONS.......... ....... .................162 6.10 FORMAL ASSOCIATIONS......... .......... ...... .......... 164 6.1 QUESTIONNAIRE ANSWERS........ 169 6.2 SOINTULA VS. OTHER TOWNS............................... 170 6.3 CHILDREN OF FISHERMEN VS OTHERS........................ 170 6.4 CHILDREN OF FISHERMEN, LOCATION 171 6.5 FATHERS ARE FIS HERMEN.................................. 171 6.6 SOINTULA VS. OTHER COMMUNITIES. ........................ 172 6.7 SOINTULA VS. OTHER COMMUNITIES. ..................172 6.8 PT. MCNEILL VS. OTHER COMMUNITIES................ •..... 173 7.1 SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS........... .......... .......... ....187 7.2 BORROWING RATES.... .................... ..... ........... 190 7.3 TWO INVESTMENT MODELS.................................. 190 8.1 ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE................................* 209 A.1 DISCRIMINANT FUNCTION...,........ ....,.................290 A. 1A MA HALO NOB IS DISTANCE. ... . . . .. 290 A, 2 PBEDICTION TEST. ................................... ... .291 A.3 D2 FOR FORWARD STEP-WISE PROCEDURE 291 A.4 PREDICTIONS OF DISCRIMINANT FUNCTIONS.................. 291 ix LIST OF FIGURES 1, 1 COMMUNITY COMPONENTS........ ..... ....,. . ...... . ...... . . 4 3.1 LOCATION OF SOINTULA.........•..... .................... 35 3.2 MALCOLM ISLAND. . . ...... .,36 3. 3 TOWN PLANS. 36 4.1 SOINTULA 1 961... . .... ...... .. ....... .........v..........72 4.2 SOINTULA 1966.............v...... .................. .... 72 4.3 SOINTULA 1971.......... .... ,v, 73 4. 4 SOINTULA 1977......................, 73 4.5 FEMALE 1961.......................... ... 74 4.6 MALE 1961. ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . v . . . . . . . . . . . 7 4 4.7 TOTAL 1961......, ,......... ...... , .74 4. 8 FEMALE 1966. ................................... ,>--.V. . .'75 4.9 MALE 1966.........................................,.... 75 4.10 TOTAL 1966.,......... . . . . 7 5 4.11 FEMALE 1971......... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 6 4.12 MALE 1 9 7 1 . . . . . . . . . . . ...........76 4.13 TOTAL 1971. .... .... ....................76 4.14 SOINTULA 1 9 7 7 . . . . . ... ..........,....,..........77 4.15 ALERT BAY 1 9 6 1 . . . . 7 8 4.16 ALERT BAY 1966 78 4.17 PT. MCNEILL 1971 MALE....... .......... .............. ..79 4.18 FT. MCNEILL 1971 FEMALE...............................79 4.19 SOINTULA TOWN CENTER.............. ..,,,,... ...,,...... 80 4.20 K1LE7A R O A D . . . . . . . , . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 0 4.21 RESIDENTIAL STABILITY, HOUSEHOLD 81 4.22 RESIDENTIAL STABILITY, INDIVIDUALS ....,,«.......••.... 81 4.23 CATCH IN AREA #12 82 X 5.1 YlELD/EFFORT CURVE,.,................, .... 85 5.2 TOTAL FLEET....... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 136 5.3 GILLNET............................ .................... 137 5. 4 COMBINATION.......... .. .. . . ..-* # . .. ... , . .... ... .. 138 5.5 TBOILEB. ......... . . .......... ..... . ,1. . . ...... .......... 139 6.1 SPECTRAL ANALYSIS........... ......,.... ...... ..... .....150 6.2 HISTOGRAMS OF BIRTH DATES.......... v . . . . . . . . . . . . . . v . . . . 150 6.3 WORK CYCLE . ..... .... ...,...... ..... ..... ......... ..... 150 6.4 LOHRENZ CURVE..........................................163 7.1 ORGANIZATION OF MODEL..........^....................... 174 7.2 MIGRATION RATE VS. INCOMES,...•.... ....••...... ........ 176 7.3 VALIDATION ON POPULATION.......... V .........^......... . 183 7.4 VALIDATION ON AGE GRADES...,..,..........,., ......183 7.5 VALIDATION ON VESSELS....,.... *..,••...,,..,.........,. 183 7.6 ALTERNATE INVESTMENT MODELS........,..,...,,,.»....,...183 8.1 SIMULATION AT YEAR 20. 199 8.2 CLASSIFICATION OF SCENARIOS............................ 201 8.3 SIMULATION AT YEAR 10 , 204 8.4 TIME PATH INDICATORS............ ...... ...... ....... . . , . 205 8.5A PHASE PLOT........ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 208 8.5B PHAS E PLOT....................... ...... ..........,... . 208 8.6 PRICE E F F E C T S . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. ,. 213 8.7 STOCK EFFECTS.. ., 214 8.8 PRICE AND STOCK E F F E C T S . w . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 215 8.9 INCOME INSURANCE.,................ .216 8.10 SENSITIVITY TO VARIANCE. ... . . . ... , .. . ... .. , ,,216 A. 1 DISCRIMINANT FUNCTIONS 1,2....... .......290 A. 2 DISCRIMINANT FUNCTIONS 2,3. ... .. 290 xi A.3-5 CLUSTER ANALYSIS. ....294 x i i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I wish to thank the members of my research committee Professors Alan Chambers, C.S. Holling, James Lindsey, Ilan Vertinsky, Carl waiters and James Wilen, Professor Vertinsky, my research supervisor gave generously of his resources and insight. I would also l i k e to express thanks to the following faculty members who commented on the thesis - Professors Kenneth Burridge, Werner Cohn, Peter Pearse and Brahm Wiesman. Dr. Randall Peterman provided consultation on aspects of the computer programming. Professor Guy Buchholtzer (C.N.R.S.,Paris) advised on the s e l e c t i o n of the community for f i e l d study. Mrs. Elaine Englar provided invaluable s e c r e t a r i a l assistance. Mr. J.F. Rowe, of the Division of V i t a l S t a t i s t i c s , Government of B.C., contributed demographic records and unpublished data. Mr. M. Roscoe, D i s t r i c t Superintendent of Schools i n Port Hardy, organized the c o l l e c t i o n of further demographic data. The author wishes to thank Reverend Len Perry of s c i n t u l a who allowed access to seme of the parish records. To the people of Sointula, the author owes a debt of gratitude f o r th e i r tolerance and humour, and i t i s hoped that t h i s work may contribute to their welfare., 1 INTRODUCTION The focus of t h i s d i s s e r t a t i o n i s the relationship between human society and the natural environment. A broad i n t e r d i s c i p l i n a r y approach i s taken. The subject of study i s re s t r i c t e d to a small islan d community - Sointula - whose inhabitants make t h e i r l i v i n g primarily from f i s h i n g . The main questions which are addressed are: 1) How does the community currently depend on the natural resources? 2) How does v a r i a b i l i t y i n the resource base a f f e c t the community? 3) Uhat i s the economic structure of the l o c a l commercial f i s h i n g f l e e t ? 4) What are the unigue c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of Sointula i n comparison with the communities which are i t s close neighbours? 5) How do s p e c i f i c resource management p o l i c i e s a f f e c t the l o c a l community? 6) What are the options i n development f o r the future? In chapter 1, the d i s c i p l i n e s contributing to the thesis are enumerated and t h e i r r o l e i n constructing the an a l y t i c framework of the study i s explored. Chapter 2 deals with methodology. The methods of the s o c i a l and natural sciences are compared, the epistemologies of Popper and Kuhn are contrasted, and the basic approach of the study i s 2 described. Chapter 3 provides background to the f i e l d study. A general description of the geography, ecology, and s o c i a l and c u l t u r a l character of Sointula i s given. Chapter 4 deals with demography. The chapter presents a description of population s i z e , age structure, v i t a l rates and migration. The r e l a t i o n between demographic change and fluctuations i n the natural resource i s investigated. Chapter 5 focuses on the l o c a l economy. A description of the l o c a l economy i s provided based on a survey of f l e e t owners and supplemented by data from previous area wide studies. The chapter investigates costs and revenues from f i s h i n g . The two analytic goals of the chapter are - a) to compare economic e f f i c i e n c y between gear types; b) to estimate the parameters of investment and disinvestment in fi s h i n g i n Sointula Chapter 6 deals with broad s o c i a l and c u l t u r a l features. Information for t h i s chapter i s derived from participant observation, interview and guestionnaire survey. The t h e o r e t i c a l perspective i s that of e c o l o g i c a l anthropology, emphasizing the linkages to the e c o l o g i c a l variables. Chapter 7 s p e c i f i e s a simulation model which uses the data presented in Chapters 4-6. Tests of v a l i d i t y are carried out by comparison of the model r e s u l t s with h i s t o r i c a l data. S e n s i t i v i t y analysis i s used to estimate the e f f e c t of uncertainty i n s p e c i f i c parameters. Chapter 8 i s concerned with the r e s u l t s of the simulation experiments. The model i s used to investigate the l o c a l impacts of a range of contingencies i n resource and economic regulation. 3 The l o c a l history of Sointula i s documented from a l i f e h i story perspective, i n appendix 1. The topic of regional resource management i s addressed i n appendix 2. Appendix 3 deals with a numerical taxonomy of coastal settlements. Appendix 4 i s the data base on f i s h i n g vessels and appendix 5 i s the program f o r the model. 4 CHAPTEB 1 THE DISCIPLINARY BACKGROUND The general orientation of t h i s study i s towards a synthetic understanding of a resource based community i n the hinterland of B r i t i s h Columbia. Four parts of the community are distinguished: the society and culture, economy, population and natural resources. The re l a t i o n s h i p between these components i s shown schematically i n f i g . 1.1. SOCIETY AND CULTURE . . ECONOMY . . POPULATION . . NATURAL . . RESOURCES. Fig. 1. 1 Community Components The f i r s t category, society and culture i s the ess e n t i a l human character of the community. I t i s sustained within a d i s t i n c t population unit and by a l o c a l economy. So c i a l and cu l t u r a l variables such as family structure and p o l i t i c a l 5 orientation are subject to the age/sex p r o f i l e of the population and the s p e c i f i c s of the f i s h i n g economy. Economy and population are themselves interacting - demographic v i t a l rates are influenced by the l e v e l of the economy and economic performance i s affected by population c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s such as the dependency r a t i o . F i n a l l y , the economy depends on the ecological variables of d i s t r i b u t i o n and abundance of the natural resources. The d i s c i p l i n e s which are involved i n the study are: anthropology, demography, resource economics and ecology. The particular sub-areas which are used are tabulated below (table 1.1). D i s c i p l i n e Subarea anthropology ecological and maritime anthropology economics economy and regulation of f i s h i n g demography demographic models, migration ecology resource management, systems analysis Table 1.1 Dis c i p l i n a r y Basis The a r t i c u l a t i o n of the d i s c i p l i n e s i s r e a l i s e d through the selection and development of commensurable measurements and comparable models, i n overal l perspective i s sought i n the the o r e t i c a l viewpoints of the c u l t u r a l , economic and e c o l o g i c a l 6 sciences., The method of integration, that i s p r i n c i p a l l y used, i s computer simulation. It allows the integration of research r e s u l t s across conceptual and methodological b a r r i e r s . The resulting model i s u t i l i z e d experimentally to assess s p e c i f i e d management prescriptions and v a r i a b i l i t y i n the natural resources. I t also provides a stimulus to further empirical and conceptual research (Gutzkow 1968)., M u l t i d i s c i p l i n a r y integrated research i s increasingly emphasized i n the planning f i e l d s . In Canada, the process of public inquiry i s currently emphasized as a means of c o l l e c t i n g information. Government i n g u i r i e s into northern development (Berger 1977) have been given a mandate to examine s o c i a l , c u l t u r a l , economic and environmental impacts of project proposals. The Hest Coast O i l Ports Inguiry (Thompson 1978) s i m i l a r l y , encompasses l o c a l community concerns, as well as, macroeconomic and environmental factors, A general development plan for communities and natural resources in Northern Ontario i s the agenda for the Hart inguiry (1978). Recent analyses of science policy f o r Canada's f i s h e r i e s have stressed the co-ordination of s o c i a l science research with the marine sciences, in order to design and implement management regimes more e f f e c t i v e l y (Fletcher 1977, McCracken and McDonald 1976, Regier and Mccracken 1975, Park 1973, Sewell 1975). 1.1 ANTHROPOLOGY 1.1.1 Maritime Anthropology Fishing communities are the area of study of maritime anthropology (Nishimura 1976). Particular attention has been 7 paid to the community basis of f i s h i n g i n the A t l a n t i c provinces of Canada. Topics that have been studied are: family organisation (Nemec 1972, S t i l e s 1972, Firestone 1967), information exchange (Andersen 1972), s o c i a l character of economic transactions (Paine 1972). Development issues that have been studied at the l o c a l l e v e l are economic dualism (Brox 1969), resettlement (Copes 1972), migration (weatherburn 1971), resource management and s p a t i a l competition (Andersen and S t i l e s 1973). Comparative studies between l o c a l communities are the subject of Mathews (1976) and Andersen and Badel (1972)., Cohen (197 5) analyses l o c a l - l e v e l p o l i t i c a l organisation. Less research i n maritime anthropology has been c a r r i e d out on west coast communities. Smith (1977) investigated the l o c a l p o l i t i c a l factors i n the decline of Columbia River subsistence f i s h i n g . Pritchard (1977) traced the economic t r a n s i t i o n of the Kitimaat band. Langdon (1977) examined native fishermen i n southeast Alaska. A biographical study of an Indian seine boat captain was the subject of Spradley (1967). Decision making of f i s h boat captains was studied by Cave (1971). Further relevant research has been conducted on land based resource communities i n Canada. Lucas (1971) surveys these towns, emphasizing the overwhelming influence of the company. Lipset (1955) studied the small farming v i l l a g e s of the P r a i r i e s . He concluded that a tendency to create organisational structures to pool resources was a response to f l u c t u a t i n g environmental conditions. Bennett (1971) compares d i f f e r i n g roles on the P r a i r i e s i n terms of strategies of coping with environmental, economic and s o c i a l constraints., 8 Cross c u l t u r a l comparisons with fi s h i n g communities i n other i n d u s t r i a l countries can be made.J Comparable research studies have been carried i n Europe (Barth 1963, Blehr 1963, Lofgren 1972, Aubert 1965, Cattamirri 1972, Baks and Postel-Coster 1977, Pi-Sunyer 1977, Wadel 1972, Heibert 1958,1969), U.S.A. (White 1977) and South America (Breton 1977, Davenport 1960)., 1.1.2 Ecological Anthropology The regulatory function of culture has been emphasized i n ecological anthropology. Recent review of the f i e l d by Bennett (1976) and Hardesty (1977) have stressed the use of modern systems theory and the policy orientation toward the i n t e r d i s c i p l i n a r y study of s o c i a l and environmental issues. The integration of e c o l o g i c a l concepts (sensu Odum 1953) into an anthropological framework was carried out by Rappaport (1968,71). He hypothesized that c u l t u r a l processes served to regulate the land usage of an i s o l a t e d population, i n New Guinea, that practiced s h i f t i n g a g r i c u l t u r e . Land and population were adjusted through t e r r i t o r i a l expansion. Expansionary c o n f l i c t s were, i n turn, governed at t r a d i t i o n a l ceremonies, i n i t i a t e d only as a r e s u l t of c r i s e s in domestic production. Applying t h i s conceptual approach to the f i s h i n g community pointed to the importance of the regulatory functions of c u l t u r a l features, such as p o l i t i c a l organisation. A m u l t i d i s c i p l i n a r y orientation i s taken i n The Bankslanders, (Usher 1970,72), a study of an Inuit (Eskimo) community i n the Canadian a r c t i c . Written in three volumes, the f i r s t examines the history of the settlement and the s o c i a l and 9 economic factors underlying migration to Banks Island. The second d e t a i l s the ecological information available on the fur bearing animals on the isl a n d : t h e i r habitat, migratory patterns and predators. The trapping economy i s also described i n d e t a i l , emphasizing s p a t i a l variables. An inventory was made of harvesting e f f o r t , eguipment, and markets. In the t h i r d volume the effects of o i l exploration on the l o c a l abundance of animals i s investigated. The contact and communication between the native community and o i l companies and government agencies i s described. The f i s h i n g community studied in t h i s thesis i s more completely embedded i n an i n d u s t r i a l economy than those i n the two studies of ecological anthropology, c i t e d above. The resource i s not l o c a l i z e d , and the population i s not r e s t r i c t e d by impervious barriers to migration. Weighed against these complications i s the guantification possible through the i n d u s t r i a l organisation and a v a i l a b i l i t y of documentary s t a t i s t i c s . A h o l i s t i c model i s developed with a greater degree of rigour through the use of d i s c i p l i n a r y based theory and the integrative methodology of system analsis. 1.2 EESOOECE ECONOMICS A r e v i v a l of concern with the natural resource sector i n economics was marked by Scott's (1973) c r i t i c a l appraisal of resource conservation. A central concept of the analysis was that natural resources may be viewed as a form of c a p i t a l , t h a t i s , an economic material in which future planning i s necessarily involved. Gordon (1954), i n analysing the fish e r y , combined a 10 l o g i s t i c function f o r stocks, with a marginal analysis of costs and revenues. In t h i s way, a maximum revenue accruable from the resource, was defined. Subsequent theory has focused on congestion (Plourde 1970, Smith 1969) , multiple stocks ( S i l v e r t and Smith 1976), overexploitation (Clark 1973, Hilen 1976), and optimal control theory (Clark and Monro 1975, Clark 1976). Regulation of the west coast fishery has been analysed by S i n c l a i r (1960), Crutchfield and Pontecorvo (1969), Pearse (1972), Hilen (1977), MacKay (1977) and Adasiak (1977). A review of the policy implementation of l i c e n c i n g i s set f o r t h by Mitchell (1977)./ Another relevent aspect of resource economics i s the valuation of non-market goods and services. In estimating the value of wild game. Brown and Hammock (1973) combine a guestionnaire survey to estimate the willingness of hunters to pay, with a model of the b i o l o g i c a l production function. A means of weighing the o v e r a l l value to society of public expenditures i s cost-benefit analysis (Mishan 1971). The subject of externality (Euchanon and Stubbledine 1962) i s es p e c i a l l y pertinent to marine resources. Major topics are the s o c i a l costs involved in the exploitation of common property resources (Coase 1960, Turvey 1973), transaction costs (Crocker 1971) and l e g a l structures (Dales 1968). O'Riordan (1977) suggests that the pervasive e f f e c t s of natural resource use l i m i t the relevance of the concept of Pareto eguilibrium and argue f o r wider public p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n resource management (Elder 1976, Lucas 1976, Goodman 1975, Sewell 1977). Scott (1962,1965) discusses the dynamics of 11 resource depletion on the s o c i a l and economic f a b r i c of dependent communities. D i s t r i b u t i o n a l issues i n the management of resources are explored i n Scott (1958), Samuelson (1974) , Heitzman (1974) and Friedlander (1973). 1.3 DEMOGRAPHY Demographic analyses are predominantly large scale, that i s , at a regional or national l e v e l . Macro-studies indicate the major trends of population in the regions of Canada - the demographic and socio-economic bases of migration (George 1969, Stone 1969), f e r t i l i t y (Henripin 1968) and demographic p r o f i l e (Kalbarth and McVey 1971). In micro-demography {Clarke 1976, Pryor 1976) the concern i s with small populations and the focus i s s h i f t e d from aggregative s t a t i s t i c a l properties, to the s p e c i f i c s o c i a l , c u l t u r a l and economic features of a community. The model of demography used i n t h i s study begins, as i n macro-studies, with demographic accounting u t i l i s i n g matrix mathematics. The mathematical foundations of population projection were f i r s t developed by L e s l i e (1945, 1948) and advanced by Keyfitz (1968 and Keyfitz and F l e i g e r (1971). Socio-economic information about the community i s used to augment the demographic model. Studies in economic demography are drawn on to suggest causal relationships. The analysis of economic factors, at a household l e v e l , which aff e c t family si z e have been surveyed by Schultz (1973). Sp e c i f i c topics that are dealt with are: the wage rate (Gardner 1973), education (Ben-Porath 1973, Michael 1973), marriage (Becker 1960,1973) and l i f e history planning (De Tray 1973). The p a r t i c u l a r e f f e c t of the fishing occupation on 12 f e r t i l i t y has been analysed by Okraru (1975) f o r the case of a Nova Scotian community. Long term trends a r i s i n g through the interaction of economic and demographic variables are dealt with in E a s t e r l i n (1968) and Lee (1974). Smallness i n i t s e l f i s an important factor in the population. Dyke (1971,73) i n the f i e l d of demographic anthropology explores through computer simulation, the minimal conditions of s i z e , on long term s u r v i v a l . The study of small populations also e n t a i l s greater l i m i t a t i o n s on documentary data (Kosinski 1976). The bases of inference from limited evidence i n the study of long term trends are developed i n the f i e l d s of h i s t o r i c a l demography (Glass and Eversley 1965) and palecdemography (Weiss 1973)., 1.4 ECOLOGY Ecology may be defined as the study of natural communities. A human component in ecosystem models has been a concern i n a variety of ecological studies. Ecology contributes to t h i s study by offering a t h e o r e t i c a l perspective for systems evaluation and by off e r i n g an i n t e r d i s c i p l i n a r y framework for resource policy analysis. 1.4.1 Theory Ecology has t r a d i t i o n a l l y been concerned with non-human populations while demography has developed around human population studies. The d i s t i n c t i o n i n t h e i r approaches i s , as G.E. Hutchinson pointed out (1957), between a concern i n population ecology with broad generalizations, and i n demography with short term projection. He proposed a comparative demography 13 which neglects neither the urgency of population projection nor the dangers of oversimplified explanation. P a r a l l e l s may also be drawn between ecological and s o c i a l systems. Each has a complex organisation and d i s t i n c t h i s t o r i c a l pattern. The general properties of these systems have been the subject of current research. Two categories have been proposed: a) s t a b i l i t y - a property of resistance to fluctuations (Holling 1969, Hay 1973) ; b) r e s i l i e n c e - a capacity to survive under a range of contingencies (Holling 1973). The r e s i l i e n c e concept has been applied i n the s o c i a l sciences by S i l v e r t (1977) i n reference to the long term orientation of the A t l a n t i c f i s h i n g communities and by Fitzhugh (1974) to the Inuit a r c t i c populations. In t h i s study, the s u r v i v a l of the community w i l l be examined i n terms of r e s i l i e n c e concepts. The guality of sur v i v a l w i l l be assessed i n terms of the l e v e l of socio-economic development. 1.4.2 Policy Options in Resource Management A c r o s s - d i s c i p l i n a r y approach to resource management u t i l i s i n g simulation has been stressed (Holling and Chambers 1973, Kane, Thompson and Vertinsky 1972, Halters 1974).,An example of this l i n e of research i n r u r a l community studies i s an Alpine v i l l a g e that was modelled to assess the e f f e c t s of a range of development and resource contingencies (Himsonova 1975). In t h i s t h e s is, Fisheries management w i l l be studied i n terms of the conseguences of s p e c i f i c p o l i c i e s to the f i s h i n g community. The management of the fishery i s effected through three constituents of the community: b i o l o g i c a l resources, economy, and s o c i e t y . R e s o u r c e management p o l i c i e s to be 14 examined experimentally i n the model are: 1) an increase i n salmon, which i s the aim of the enhancement program (Canada, Dept. of the Environment 1977) ; 2) a decrease i n salmon, p r i n c i p a l l y resulting from the trend to increased recreational f i s h i n g i n the area (Government of B.C. 1976); 3) a change i n the variance of salmon between years: a) a reduction i n variance (Walters 1975), b) an increased variance as a r e s u l t of greater dependency on technological means of enhancement (Peterman 1975); 4) l i c e n c i n g r e s u l t i n g i n a changed rates of investment; (Pearse 1972); 5) the adoption of the objective of maximizing the aggregate welfare i n the l o c a l community. 15 CHAPTER 2 PHILOSOPHY AND METHODOLOGY The goal of the research into the fi s h i n g v i l l a g e of Sointula was to integrate s o c i a l , economic and resource factors within one analytic framework. An approach spanning several d i s c i p l i n e s was necessary. The d i s c i p l i n a r y basis of science, however, places b a r r i e r s i n the way of combining t h e o r e t i c a l perspectives derived from d i f f e r e n t f i e l d s . In philosophy of science the importance of d i s c i p l i n e s in structuring research and the l o g i c a l foundations underlying s c i e n t i f i c discovery have been stressed. While the main mode of knowledge a c g u i s i t i o n i n the natural sciences is experimentation, the setting for s o c i a l research imposes many constraints upon i t s use. Currently, methodologies in s o c i a l science are being developed to s t r i v e for experiment-like control under f i e l d conditions. Coupled with the development of multivariate s t a t i s t i c s and formal causal models, the p o s s i b i l i t i e s f o r s c i e n t i f i c inference have been enhanced. The design of the methods of c o l l e c t i n g information i n the f i e l d i s an important adjunct to increasing the v a l i d i t y of modeling. r In the f i e l d research, p r a c t i c a l problems of gaining acceptance, rapport, reaction to investigation, coordination of research, and interpretation of information, had to be confronted. A multi-method approach merged with the aims of the 16 quasi-experimental design i n that multiple confirmation of phenomena gave greater opportunity f o r v a l i d a t i o n ' where t r a d i t i o n a l means of experimental control were impractical. The e t h i c a l and policy implementation of the research findings merit e x p l i c i t consideration. One of the most important aspects of contemporary science i s at the interface with society. Insight into the planning and development process for the regional area must be sought i n order to maximize the benefit from the research project. 2.1 Philosophical Bases of the Research Design The d i s c i p l i n a r y nature of the s c i e n t i f i c enterprise i s the central issue of one of the most i n f l u e n t i a l philosophies of science. I t i s Kuhn's thesis (1965) that science i s shaped by s o c i a l i z a t i o n to the acceptable norms of a c t i v i t y within d i s c i p l i n e s . Through education, the commonly accepted paradigms, that constitute "normal" science, are inculcated. These paradigms of knowledge define the legitimate questions, the c r i t e r i a for v a l i d a t i o n and the methods of investigation permissible within research. Kuhn emphasizes that c o n f l i c t between alternative paradigms i s minimized through the maintenance of d i s c i p l i n a r y boundaries. The c l a s h of ideas i s not t y p i c a l of the normal a c t i v i t y of science, but occurs infreguently during s c i e n t i f i c revolutions. A d i f f e r e n t view of science (more properly, a different epistemology, or theory of knowledge) has been proposed by 17 Popper { 1 9 6 5 , 1 9 6 8 ) . His position i s known as c r i t i c a l rationalism. By t h i s i s meant, the idea that science progresses through the putting f o r t h of conjectures or hypotheses which are then subjected to attempts at t h e i r r e f u t a t i o n . Popper rejects two e a r l i e r theories of science. The f i r s t i s j u s t i f i c a t i o n i s m -that science i s proven f a c t . This i s rejected as a conseguence of his c r i t i g u e of induction. The assertion of the existence of i r r e f u t a b l e truth r e s u l t s i n the f a l l a c y of i n f i n i t e regress, that accepted f a c t rests on a previous observation. For Popper, science i s open-ended; i t s foundations grow out of areas where knowledge i s lacking, but i t s f i n a l goal cannot be foreseen. The second view considered by Popper, i s that of probabilism - that science i s most probable fa c t . This i s rejected because of the d i f f i c u l t y of comparing theories having d i f f e r e n t areas of d e f i n i t i o n . In place of the philosophies he r e j e c t s . Popper emphasizes the importance of a methodological rule. This i s the process of conjecture and refutation which underlies the progressive character of s c i e n t i f i c knowledge. The normative theory of science, by contrast, stresses the s o c i a l and i n s t i t u t i o n a l guidance of s c i e n t i f i c d i s c i p l i n e s . Though Popper has not e x p l i c i t l y analysed these f a c t o r s , he does not ascribe an ess e n t i a l role to paradigms of research in the development of science. Kuhn i s c r i t i c i s e d as implying that the ordinary goal of research should be "normal" science, as defined by the existing paradigms (Watkins 1 9 7 0 ) . This epistemological debate remains unresolved. In t h i s t h e sis, a pragmatic modification of Popper's c r i t e r i o n has been 18 used i n the development of methodology applicable to the community study. The p r i n c i p a l constraint on such an approach i s the lack of opportunity for the use of the experimental method. Lacking the f u l l use of the t r a d i t i o n a l instruments - controls, randomization, manipulation - causality i s generally more d i f f i c u l t to elucidate i n the s o c i a l as compared with the natural sciences (Fisher 1959). The v a l i d i t y of the experimental research designs i n t h i s thesis i s jeopardized by several factors causing the confounding of variables. These factors are (Cambell and Stanley 1963, Caporaso 1973): 1) Selection enters as a confounding fa c t o r at several l e v e l s . Regional communities and sub-units within them are subject to s e l f - s e l e c t i o n , and do not represent a random sample of in d i v i d u a l s , , 2) Trends and other p e r i o d i c i t i e s are time dependent patterns, which i f ongoing with the explanatory variables can r e s u l t i n confounding e f f e c t s . 3) A m u l t i p l i c i t y of substantive variables may intrude into the analysis by varying c o r r e l a t i v e l y with proposed dependent and independent variables. The history of the community, in p a r t i c u l a r , may involve a complex of factors which are e f f e c t i v e over a long time period., 4) Random variation enters as sampling error and as stochastic v a r i a t i o n in s o c i a l and environmental f a c t o r s . Three research designs are adopted to meet the threats to v a l i d i t y . The multiple methodology program best develops the potential f o r hypothesis testing given the data base for the components of the community. Information gathered on s o c i a l , 19 economic, demographic and resource c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s d i f f e r i n measurement units, time horizon and areal disaggregation. The multiple methodologies f l e x i b l y u t i l i s e the diverse data base within an inductive-deductive framework of hypothesis testing. The f i r s t research design used i s that of case study, the t r a d i t i o n a l method of ethnography i n anthropology (Harris 1974). A case study i s an in-depth in v e s t i g a t i o n into one pa r t i c u l a r community. The aim i s to relate the cognitive and behavioural features to the ove r a l l structure and functioning of the community. Case studies are pre-experimental in that the lack of comparisons l i m i t s c i e n t i f i c inference. Cross-cultural comparison (Murdock 1949) aims to provide a means to the validation of relationships between variables, by selecting control studies done on a s i m i l a r range of factors and on communities at a comparable state of history,economy and environment. Another means of assessing the v a l i d i t y of case studies, i s the re-study (Lewis 1951), though p r a c t i c a l considerations have limited i t s use. Quasi-experimental design was developed by Campbell and Stanley (1963) primarily to further non-laboratory psychology. Its greatest elaboration currently, i s i n the f i e l d of p o l i t i c a l science (Caporaso 1973). In t h i s t h e s i s , guantitative hypotheses are developed to test t h e o r e t i c a l concepts r e l a t i n g natural resource exploitation and social-economic organisation.. The framing of these hypotheses can be viewed within the spectrum of guasi-experimentation. Two designs are used - the control group and short time series. The control group design enables the comparison between 20 groups d i f f e r i n g p r i n c i p a l l y in a sub-set of factors from the area of d e f i n i t i o n of the study. In t h i s way, hypotheses of the relationship between a causal variable and an ef f e c t variable may be tested. This design i s u t i l i s e d i n investigating the economic c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of the d i f f e r i n g equipment types within the community f i s h i n g f l e e t . , A t t i t u d e s towards locale and to migration were other important variables that were relevant to community s o l i d a r i t y . In order to test hypotheses about the factors generating these attitudes, a control group was drawn from dif f e r e n t types of regional resource-based communities, Short-time series are a second type of quasi-experimental design (Boos 1973). The simplest type i s the pre/post t e s t , involving a minimum of two or three data points, which i s used to assess the effect of the occurence of a discrete event. Stchl's (1973) examination of the r e l a t i o n between war (variable 1) and domestic violence (variable 2) i s a good model of the application of the method. Several alternative hypotheses of the r e l a t i o n between the two variables are generated from the the o r e t i c a l base. Pre/post event data are tested for s i g n i f i c a n t differences. The r e s u l t does not unambiguously rule out alternative hypotheses, but a c l e a r exposition and assessment of each i s provided..A discrete event did not present i t s e l f i n the thesis research, as a natural experiment. The time seri e s model i s used to investigate the lagged r e l a t i o n between continuous demographic and resource economic variables. S p e c i f i c threats to v a l i d i t y for these short time series are: 1) The assumption i s made that the data base i s s u f f i c i e n t l y long to take account of the operative lags. 21 The observed changes, however, may be due to a latent factor whose ef f e c t i s manifest only i n long time s e r i e s . 2) The assumption i s made that the relationships between s o c i a l and economic variables, over the period examined, are stationary. The t h i r d methodology i s that of multiple eguation models. As developed i n economics (Pindyck and Bubinfeld 1976, Naylor 1971), the s p e c i f i c a t i o n of the model i s through maximum likel i h o o d estimates of parameters made from a homogenous data bank. An e x p l i c i t numerical solution to complex models cannot generally be obtained. Given the complexity of s o c i a l and cu l t u r a l systems, simulation i s a suitable methodology f o r analysis { see Gullahorn and Gullahorn 1972, Be r l i n s k i 1976, for a review of the applications). Bellman and Smith (1973) argue that the simulation concept i s applicable even to areas of so c i c - c u l t u r a l study dealing with af f e c t oriented behaviour. The necessary condition i s that r a t i o n a l i t y enters s i g n i f i c a n t l y into the decision-making process being studied., The val i d a t i o n of simulation models i s made d i f f i c u l t because of the number of simplifying assumptions that enter into the formulation. Two possible c r i t e r i a are i n t e r n a l consistency and root mean square deviation from h i s t o r i c a l data (Pindyck and Bubinfeld 1976:ch.10). The strength of simulation l i e s i n i t s use to experimentally preview the effects of intervention into the system and i n planning future research. To recapitulate, the epistemologies of Kuhn and Popper underline the importance of the d i s c i p l i n a r y paradigms and the procedures of c r i t i c a l inquiry i n science. Three research 22 designs were employed i n t h i s community study. The f i r s t was case study, enabling the derivation of a detailed model of s o c i a l and economic organisation. The second, quasi-experimental design, aimed to introduce experimental conditions into the f i e l d study through the use of control groups and short-time seri e s . The t h i r d , simulation, provided an integrating tool and a means of previewing the e f f e c t s of intervention on the community. 2.2 Sp e c i f i c Factors i n Social-Environmental Models One of the most important recent investigations i n the area of integrated s o c i a l and environmental models i s that of fiappaport (1968). The central concept employed was that of the regulation of environmental' r e l a t i o n s through culture. This model was applied to an i s o l a t e d population of s h i f t i n g a g r i c u l t u r a l i s t s . In the iso l a t e d highlands of Hew Guinea, a v i l l a g e was made the subject of an extended f i e l d study. B i o l o g i c a l resources, subsistence economy and s o c i a l process were the f o c i of the study. I t was observed that periodic c o n f l i c t s would come about causing a readjustment of population and resources. Rappaport hypotheses that the governing mechanism was t r a d i t i o n a l forms of r i t u a l organisation. The c r i t i c a l responses of the s c i e n t i f i c community to t h i s paradigm was i n four areas: 1) methodology; 2) the problem of observational bias; 3) uncontrolled variables s p e c i f i c a l l y i n the h i s t o r i c a l context; 4) interpretation of the di r e c t i o n of 23 causality. Detailing these points: 1) Anderson (1973), and Watson (1971) question the f e a s i b i l i t y of the method of measurement. The method of labour-time observation used by Bappaport i t i s argued has proven so demanding on the f i e l d worker that the accuracy of the quantitative measures may be jeopardized. 2) Lowman-Vayda (1975) studied a neighbouring people and found a d i f f e r e n t model more appropriate. She concludes that the s i g n i f i c a n t c u l t u r a l events are controlled by l o c a l leaders whose aim i s to enhance their prestige and influence, rather than regulate the environment. 3) Salisbury (1975) argues that the h i s t o r i c a l conditions have introduced factors not taken i n t o account by Bappaport. Contact and trade with the western nations has so altered the land-population r e l a t i o n that a stable equilibrium model i s inapplicable. 4) F i e r i n g and Holling (1974) re-interpret the causal r e l a t i o n s . C u l t u r a l process i t i s suggested, functions to explore the l i m i t s of environmental r e s i l i e n c e through generating v a r i a b i l i t y , rather than to determine a precise r e l a t i o n of population to land* The implications are that further time series observations are required and that the d i r e c t i o n of causality runs less c l e a r l y from culture to environment; a stochastic, multivariate model i s suggested. The example of this previous research, suggests the importance, i n carrying out the f i e l d i nvestigation, of the coordination of the research e f f o r t , comprehensiveness of the 24 study, possible bias, and the context of h i s t o r i c a l change. In the study of the f i s h i n g community, an additional factor needs to be given attention. This i s the si g n i f i c a n c e of resource management policy, administered by governmental agencies, which structures l o c a l resource exploitation, as well as, expectations of future opportunity. 2.3 Field Methods Acguisition of information on l i f e as i t i s o r d i n a r i l y l i v e d in the community was the aim of the f i e l d work. Participant observation was p r i n c i p a l l y used i n the study of the culture and economy of Sointula; the methods of interview and guestionnaire survey were also applied i n s p e c i f i c circumstances. In t h i s section, these methods and the reason f o r thei r choice, w i l l be described i n d e t a i l . F i e l d methods may be portrayed i n terms of a scale ranging from reductionism, at one extreme, to in t e r p r e t i v e and subjective at the opposite pole. One of the extreme reductionist methods that i s being paid increasing attention i s that of human ethology. Darwin i n the Expression of-Emotions i n Animals and Man f i r s t extended the methodical recording of the behaviour of animal species to man. Today, human ethology (Fox and F l e i s i n g 1977, Hilson 1976) i s primarily being applied to s o c i a l circumstances where verbal communication i s v i t i a t e d by c u l t u r a l or i n s t i t u t i o n a l b a r r i e r s . I t s aim i s to construct an ethogram or a log of the behavioural repetoire, coded and recorded over 25 an extended time period. Such homogenizing techniques are also being applied i n the study of spatiotem portal patterns and energy flow i n human communities (Hatanabe 1977, Poleman 1974, Thomas 1973) where a large sample of r e p e t i t i v e behavioural patterns must be observed. In t h i s study, e t h o l o g i c a l methods have not been adopted because of the excessive time demands and because the more information r i c h methods could be feasibly applied. y These consist of the c l a s s i c a l s o c i a l research methods of participant observation, interview and survey, k prerequisite for their application i s the presence of a shared spoken or written language with the subject. Language i s a very important part of s o c i a l transaction., The c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of language use are s i g n i f i c a n t because they are a potential barrier to e f f e c t i v e communication. The culture of science emphasizes the use of uniform language codes functioning through i n s t i t u t i o n s of control (Bernstein 1973). In f i e l d work, s o c i o l i n g u i s t i c variables become of significance because they are sensitive indicators of s o c i a l class, ethnic a f f l i a t i o n , occupational role and environmental cognition (Cicoural 1972, Gumperz and Hymes 1972, Fishman 1969, Labov 1969, Conklin 1955, Feit,1972). The obstacle of communication i n the study of f i s h i n g communities i s noted by S i l v e r t (1977): "The attributes and objectives of fishermen are obviously a major consideration of f i s h e r i e s managers (or at least they should be), but they are d i f f i c u l t to assess. Fishermen, p a r t i c u l a r l y small-gear fishermen from r u r a l communities tend to be t a c i t u r n and do not e a s i l y relate to bureaucrats and administrators". 26 Participant observation has p a r t i c u l a r l y been developed to be applicable to the context of non-western s o c i e t i e s and sub-cultures within i n d u s t r i a l society. I t i s designed to be a vehicle for the study of i n s i t u s o c i a l l i f e and culture. I t i s a broad ranged t o o l ; p a r t i c i p a t i o n may vary from being a f u l l member of a s o c i a l group to just being an observer, whose pa r t i c i p a t i o n consists i n being able to watch without provoking a reaction (Pelto 1970). Gaining rapport with the community members i s the f i r s t c r u c i a l step i n the a c q u i s i t i o n of v a l i d information. Careful attention i n the desiqn of the f i e l d research must be given to ; presentation of s e l f , impression management, choice of informants, and association with factions or hierarchies (Kluckhorn 1940, Kahn ana Mann 1952, Whyte 1955). Webb et a l (1963) frame the problem of f i e l d work as being the need to obtain "unobtrusive measures". These are indicators of s c c i a l process that may be observed without a d i r e c t personal involvement on the part of the researcher. The advantage of such measures i s that though i n d i r e c t , they can be an unbiased measure of undisturbed s o c i a l l i f e . Their v a l i d i t y i s strengthened through triangulation by multiple confirmation. The unobtrusive measures approach a r t i c u l a t e s well with the goals of guasi-experimental design. These research designs make use of the occurence of chance perturbations to provide insight into i n t e r n a l causal r e l a t i o n s . , C o l l e c t i n g s u f f i c i e n t data necessitates making the most of these opportunities by multiple modes of observation. Participant observation has another means of organisation. This i s the ongoing process of formulation of working hypotheses 27 while in the f i e l d . Questions which are unanswered or pccrly understood within the community are those to which the researcher should be directed as being most f r u i t f u l for the discovery of new and important information (Barton and Lazarfeld 1955). The task of f i e l d observation i s not one which i s generally f a m i l i a r , though i t i s done by everyone. I t casts the researcher outside the normal s o c i a l roles of the community, by making what i s common knowledge, an occupational concern. The researcher focuses on the shared norms, values and expectations that are the currency of a l l s o c i a l transactions, but are often used unawares. These comprise symbolic systems which make up the role repetoire of every day in t e r a c t i o n . Learning a basic set of such rule governed behaviour i s a fundamental part of f i e l d work. The investigation of the constituents of daily a c t i v i t y provides a basis for understanding the basic values, organisation and c o n f l i c t s of the community (Garfinkel 1967). In-depth f i e l d observation was considered a part of the study. The s o c i a l researcher i s i n a different r e l a t i o n s h i p to his subject than that of the natural s c i e n t i s t . He i s able to communicate and to ask questions about the meaning of behaviour and to c l a r i f y the verbal descriptions of behaviour. The observation of human beings e n t a i l s the advantage of being able to gain understanding via "symbolic i n t e r a c t i o n " (Head 1939), enabling one to partake of the ro l e of another person. The point of view adopted in t h i s study, corresponds c l o s e l y to what has been termed "naturalism" (Hatza 1969). This holds that the re f l e x i v e understanding of the l i f e experiences of others must 28 be acknowledged. The aim i s to combine the s c i e n t i f i c method with humanistic perspectives (Johnson 1975). This approach must be tempered by an awareness of the danger of "over-rapport" ( K i l l e r 1952) or of "going native" {Pelto 1970). Comparison of participant observation with questionnaire survey i n a r u r a l town i n the U.S.A., was ca r r i e d out by Becker and Greer (1957). They found that both methods produced the same res u l t s . Participant observation was able to reach a majority of the inhabitants of the community while the guestionnaires, though providing a larger sample, suffered from lower guality data and from the small absolute number cf respondants that could be surveyed. Questionnaire surveys were u t i l i s e d i n t h i s study i n two s p e c i f i c contexts where a large sample was needed -1) in the school and 2)in a household survey. The v a l i d i t y of participant observation can be enhanced through the use of quality control procedures such as the tabulation of contaminating factors and the adequacy of observations among the p r i n c i p a l s o c i a l groups, as well as, through multiple confirmation (Barton and L a z a r f i e l d 1955, McCall 1969). Interviews sere another f i e l d method used i n the research. In terms of emphasis on rapport, interviews are intermediary between participant observation and survey. Interviewer e f f e c t s should be minimized while at the same time, the confidence of the community i n the aims of the researcher must be obtained (Cicourel 1964). The application of the interview method was to gathering economic information on the commercial fishermen of the community. The most important factor i n gaining community acceptance was presenting a consistent rationale for the 29 a c t i v i t y of the researcher. The e t h i c a l issue in f i e l d work relates to the r e s p o n s i b i l i t y of the researcher to not apply information that has been given i n tru s t , to the detriment of the community. In conducting t h i s research, many people i n the community expressed the view that they would be interested i n obtaining the f i n a l r e sults of the study. It was decided to write a summary report to the community which would augment the normal avenues of professional communications. In the case of the Indian community, i n nearby a l e r t Bay, the researcher was obligated to submit a written proposal to the Band council. This was accepted by the council and a s i m i l a r i n t e r e s t i n the summary report was expressed. The procedure of submission of proposals i s now required by most of the Indian Bands of B r i t i s h Columbia. The relevance and application of research to s o c i a l problems i s of increasing public concern. The r e s p o n s i b i l i t y of the s c i e n t i s t to society i s viewed variously within the s c i e n t i f i c community. In pa r t i c u l a r , the s o c i a l may be contrasted with the natural sciences, i n maintaining to a greater extent, an a c t i v i s t stance toward public a f f a i r s (Dror 1970). Concepts of the r o l e of science i n the development of society are also disparate. Meadows (1965) distinguishes between two schools of thought on s o c i a l change: 1) a cybernetic model for the management of change, i n which man i s viewed as imposing h i s own defintion of change; 2) an h i s t o r i c a l model i n which society and nature are themselves viewed as an abstract conceptual pattern. 30 The interaction of the s c i e n t i s t and society has been the particular subject of research within the f i e l d of policy analysis. As defined by Dror (1970) , i t s aim i s to apply to the process of policy formation, the methods of s c i e n t i f i c study. The r e s u l t premises to improve the way i n which science i s applied to society. 31 CHAPTER 3 Background to the F i e l d Study This chapter portrays the community of Sointula. The aim i s to provide a general picture of the people and th e i r way of l i f e . In the l a s t section, the position of the community i n a regional context w i l l be s t a t i s t i c a l l y analysed. Later chapters w i l l study i n d e t a i l , the demographic, economic and s o c i a l l i f e of the community. 3.1 Introduction The coast of B r i t i s h Columbia has been thoroughly mapped and i t s waters well charted. The pulp and lumber from i t s extensive forests are known throughout the world as are i t s other resource products such as canned salmon. Climate, scenery, and recreational resources make up the basis of an important t o u r i s t industry. But geography i s also a sense of place as well as the coordinates on a map and the figures of economic production. Centuries ago explorers arrived on the west coast of fiorth America from nations of merchants, land owners and peasants. An encounter took place between branches of the human race, separated f o r hundreds of thousands of years. Thirty thousand years previously, North America had been peopled from Asia. In the slow wave of migration that spread across the continent, 32 groups of hunter-gatherers d r i f t e d down the r i v e r valleys that led to the P a c i f i c { Dyen and Aberle 1975). Their numbers grew, over the centuries, i n the r e l a t i v e i s o l a t i o n of the r i v e r v a l l e y s . Five separate language groups arose among the aboriginal peoples of the west coast, each as d i s t i n c t as were the European tongues dif f e r e n t from one another. In 1792, Captain Vancouver stopped at the mouth of a r i v e r i n the north east coast of the isl a n d that would la t e r bear his name. There he saw a v i l l a g e of twenty large rectangular houses, each occupied by several fa m i l i e s . The front of the houses were painted i n elaborate decorative motifs and there were many large carvings which towered high above the houses and many canoes pulled up on the shore. These people were a segment of the southern portion of the Kwagiutl nation. The Kwagiutl peoples were spread through many communities over the islands that dotted the channels to the mainland. For two hundred miles further north on the mainland, the Kwagiutl nation spread. Vancouver found that the people of the v i l l a g e had already been trading for European goods for a decade before h i s a r r i v a l . Trade routes extended across to the west coast of the i s l a n d , where the Spanish had established a post. In the summer and f a l l , salmon, in great numbers, swam up the r i v e r s . In Europe, at t h i s time the salmon also were present in many of the r i v e r s (Netboy 1970). Only where population had concentrated, as on the Thames and Loi r e , had th e i r numbers greatly diminished. The people of the west coast caught them by very e f f i c i e n t means - traps of wood and bark, that were b u i l t across the r i v e r s . Despite the abundance of the salmon, those 33 tribes l i v i n g further upstream could count on only an e r r a t i c supply (Kew 1975). The vagaries of weather and ocean s u r v i v a l generated a r e l a t i v e l y greater v a r i a b i l i t y i n the r e s t r i c t e d populations of salmon that bred i n the distant head waters. The society of the west coast was strongly h i e r a r c h i c a l . Chiefly lineages vied for prestige within a v i l l a g e ; v i l l a g e s competed with other v i l l a g e s . Those communities able to achieve the highest status were also the ones situated on the r i v e r s having the greatest run of salmon (Donald and M i t c h e l l 1975). Property - blankets,olachen o i l and plagues c a l l e d "coppers" -were the means through which, during the ceremonies of the potlach, the right to t i t l e and position were attained (Boas 1966). Toward other peoples of the coast, the Salish i n the south, and the Bella Coola i n the north, warfare was perennial, far parties set out i n large canoes t r a v e l l i n g hundreds of miles to carry out raids on the enemy (Spradley 1969). The European powers of the time regarded the Americas as the t e r r i t o r y of foreign nations (Cummings and Mickenberg 1S72). The European monarchs instructed t h e i r emisaries to negotiate treaties according to the international law of the time. But subjugation to superior force, disease and depopulation eroded the f a b r i c of the indigenous society. On the eastern coast of the continent, two centuries e a r l i e r , the Beotucks of Newfoundland had been exterminated, their language forgotten and their culture to survive only, i n the few a r t i f a c t s preserved i n museums. Penetration of western society was fueled by the a v a i l a b i l i t y of resources and markets. The f i r s t trade with the 3 U B.C. Coast was i n sea otter fur across the P a c i f i c to China. This was short l i v e d and in the nineteenth century the t r i a d of timber, minerals and f i s h was established. Timber was for the masts of the B r i t i s h navy and mining for the coal to f u e l the steamships which followed. The salmon were f i r s t salted and exported to the Sandwich Islands. Soon at the r i v e r at which Vancouver had stopped in 1792, the people of the v i l l a g e were fi s h i n g for salmon to trade for manufactured goods.^The mouth of the r i v e r , now c a l l e d the Nimpkish r i v e r , was not a good anchorage for the ships that came bringing trade goods and s e t t l e r s . The s a l t e r i e s and sawmills were moved to a small island just a mile offshore. By the beginning of the twentieth century, a cannery had been established on the i s l a n d community given the name of Alert Bay. Indian labour was i n demand for the catching and processing of the salmon and the native people moved from th e i r v i l l a g e to the i s l a n d of Alert Bay. Arching around Alert Bay for twelve miles i n the north and uninhabited at that time lay Malcolm Island. It was to become the s i t e of the community of Sointula. Sointula was established in 1902 by a group of Finnish people seeking a better way of l i f e than that offered to them in the coal mining communities of Nanaimo and Courtney. They established a colonisation company i n which shares were sold. To lead the colonists, a visionary ex-patriot j o u r n a l i s t , Matti Kurikka was recruited. An agreement with the P r o v i n c i a l government ceeded the r i g h t s to Malcolm Island to the c o l o n i s t s , provided that houses were b u i l t and l o t s cleared. The colony aspired to Utopian ideals and survived for three years under an i n t e l l e c t u a l leadership. A monthly 35 journal was written on the i s l a n d and widely d i s t r i b u t e d among Finnish communities. Economic d i f f i c u l t i e s and i n t e r n a l dissension f i n a l l y caused the colonisation company to be dissolved i n 1905. The community of Sointula, however, survived and today i t remains a d i s t i n c t e n t i t y in the north Island region. 3.2 Coming to Sointula The routes to northern Vancouver Island are three - by highway and ferry, by logging road, and on scheduled a i r service (Fig. 3.1).The surface route involves a ten to twelve hour t r i p from Vancouver, of about 200 miles. By a i r i t i s cut to three hours. Port McNeill i s the Vancouver Island terminal for the l o c a l ferry which serves Alert Bay and Sointula. Port McNeill i s primarily a logging town which currently has a population of 1400. I t has grown rapidly i n the l a s t decade as f o r e s t companies decided to encourage a more permanent and stable work force. The town i s b u i l t on a h i l l ; the streets with t h e i r newly constructed suburban style houses, wind down to the harbour. In the hinterland of the town are vast tracts of land leased by three major logging firms i n the area - Rayonier, MacMillan-Bloedel and Canadian Forest Products. The ferry runs a route from Port McNeill-Alert Bay-Sointula (Fig 3.2) and makes a stop at each community every two hours, from 8 am to 10 pin. I t i s a half hour t r i p on the f e r r y to Sointula, a distance of four miles. From Port McNeill, Malcolm Island can been seen stretching across much of the northern horizon. Further o f f , and partly hidden behind i s Cormorant 35a FIG. 3.1 LOCATION OF SOINTULA ON VANCOUVER ISLAND 35b F I G. 3.2 SOINTULA AND MALCOLM ISLAND 35c FIG. 3.3 TOWN PL A N (from R e g i o n a l O f f i c e blueprint) 36 Island with i t s community of al e r t Bay. The fe r r y can carry cars, a service introduced only i n the 1960*s. On the t r i p across a small uninhabited i s l a n d i s passed, Haddington Island, where the freighter " I r i s h Stardust" ran aground in the winter of 1973 and s p i l l e d one hundred thousand gallons of bunker o i l . The tid e c a r r i e d the o i l into a l e r t Bay and the resu l t i n g cleanup cost $400,000. , The houses of Sointula dot the low sloping h i l l that runs down to the f e r r y landing. Along the beach, on either side of the landing are many old wood frame boat houses, some of them the size of a large barn.Coming o f f the f e r r y , the f i r s t building to be seen i s the two story, Cooperative store, established i n 1909. To the r i g h t i s the small l i b r a r y , which has a good c o l l e c t i o n of Finnish books and since the l i b r a r y has amalgamated with the regional system, has a selection of English language books, as well. The post o f f i c e i s situated i n a small building across the street. These buildings comprise the centre of the town. , Host of the houses in Sointula are situated i n three dozen blocks, around the Coop (Fig. 3.3). In the early years of the colonisation of the i s l a n d , a plan was drawn up by surveyors. The l o t s were large by the standards currently used i n the region - 120*x120». Four l o t s made up one block, but today many of the l o t s have been subdivided. Houses stretch i n treed l o t s along the beach. Most have a large wood boat house, some of which continue to be used for vessel repairs and upkeep. These boat houses were a necessity u n t i l the breakwater was b u i l t to provide adequate protection for moorage, but many have since 37 f a l l e n into d i s r e p a i r . They were b u i l t with t a l l c e i l i n g s to accomodate the masts of the boats, Hide doors open to the sea, which the tide brings up to the s t i l t e d foundations. , On the south-eastern edge of town i s the well kept cemetery. Neatly l a i d out marble plaques and headstones are surrounded by a hedge fence. The cemetery i s set close by the ocean with a l l the headstones facing the east and at sunset a lone clump of cedar trees i s framed by the sun. The elementary school, b u i l t i n the modern f l a t rectangular s t y l e i s located bordering the for e s t , about a quarter mile from the f e r r y landing.,Until 1966, Sointula had both an elementary and hiqh school, housed together i n a three room school house. Now the high school i s i n Port McNeill and the students are f e r r i e d over daily, ahen telephone service was i n i t i a t e d on the island i n 1956, a l o c a l paper described the exchange as the only b i l i n g u a l one in the west, with service i n both Finnish and English, Postal service i s daily but as i n many r u r a l communites, there i s no home delivery. There i s no d a i l y delivery of newspapers i n Sointula, though both Alert Bay and Port McNeill receive the Vancouver papers on a same day basis. The weekly. North Island Gazette i s received at the Coop and a small variety store at the edge of town stocks a variety of magazines. The North Island Gazette features regional news and contains a regular column on Malcolm Island a c t i v i t i e s . There i s no municipal government in Sointula, I t i s an unincorporated municipality., Decisions on l o c a l administation are made by the Mount Haddington Regional D i s t r i c t which governs 38 about a dozen unincorporated municiplities i n the area. The prevailing opinion i s that there i s not enough commercial business on Malcolm Island to provide a tax base for a municipal government. The disadvantage i s that there i s no elected body to represent the general in t e r e s t s of the community to ether governmental and business i n t e r e s t s . During the 1960's there was a Board of Trade, but for lack of p a r t i c i p a t i o n i t has dissolved. Recently an elected body, the Malcolm Island Planning advisory Committee was formed at the i n i t i a t i o n of the Regional Board. I t s purpose i s to present community opinion to the Regional Planning authority. Most of Malcolm Island i s crown land, portions of which are leased for logging operations, a t f i r s t , t h e Kalvan Kansa colonisation company, had rig h t s to the entire i s l a n d . With f i n a n c i a l f a i l u r e and collapse of this venture, the land reverted to the crown. In the town, almost a l l the l o t s are owned by residents. Along the southern shore of the i s l a n d , on Kaleva road, various homesteading e f f o r t s have resulted i n tracts of land ranging from a few acres to ninety acres being i n private hands. These l o t s are rectangular, with the narrow edge along the water front. On the eastern end of the island i s Mitchel Bay, a small community with about f i f t y i n d i v i d u a l s . A small wharf services a few boats and the two packers of a l o c a l f i s h buyer, a resident of some f i f t y years. , Non-resident ownership on the i s l a n d i s not extensive according to the tax roles, though development companies have been purchasing l o t s at an increasing rate. ; Logging has long been car r i e d out on Malcolm Island. Large 39 stands of regularly spaced f i r trees are the product of reforestation that was begun many decades e a r l i e r . Forest f i r e s have broken out throughout the is l a n d every f i v e or ten years and burned over areas are now f i l l i n g i n with thickets of alders. The aiost valuable timber logged i s cedar, and the f a c i l i t i e s f or a winter logging camp are maintained by a Vancouver based firm. The winter i s snow free and the camp opens when the mountainous i n l e t s become snowed i n , prohibiting further operations. Deer are abundant, feeding on the foliage i n the logged and burned over areas. Birds are also numerous. The bush i s aliv e with sparrows, thrushes, warblers,cedar waxwings, and many other species. On the shore there are the ever present g u l l s , ducks, as well as, the occasional Canada goose and heron.„ Most spectacular are bald eagles which can be frequently seen c i r c l i n g overhead. There i s not a good natural harbour on Malcolm Island. „. The boats are moored i n the protection of an a r t i f i c i a l breakwater b u i l t by the National Harbours Board. People refer to the docks as just "the breakwater". The cooperative store has a small branch outlet located there which c a r r i e s hardware and some marine supplies and nautical charts* There i s also a small lunch counter i n s i d e , which has a self-serve coffee percolator. During the day, a group of men can often be found s i t t i n g having a coffee break. During the f i s h i n g season, no one stays there much longer than the time i t takes for a coffee or two. The moorage, inside the breakwater, i s b u i l t i n the shape of the l e t t e r £. fi wharf b u i l t on p i l i n g s runs s t r a i g h t out from 40 the shore f o r about one hundred yards, fhree f l o a t i n g wcoden platforms form the docks, and are connected to the wharf by sloping gangplanks. The dock closest to shore has the few non-commercial boats. The f i s h i n g f l e e t , which i s made up of s i x t y -f i v e vessels occupies most of the rest of the of dock space. The smaller vessels, g i l l n e t t e r s and combination vessels, are moored on the middle dock. The t h i r d dock i s reserved f o r boats of over f i f t y feet and i s occupied by the f i f t e e n large seiners based on the island, Sointula l i e s on the southern edge of what i s considered the c e n t r a l f i s h i n g area, of the B.C. coast. This central location i s an asset to fishermen i n that they are usually able to return home on weekends during the fi s h i n g season, about half the vessels i n Sointula f i s h primarily the waters i n close proximity to the islan d . These are c o l l o q u i a l l y c a l l e d the ,,hcmeguard,,. lounger skippers and those with the newer and faster boats are increasingly going wherever there i s an area opening and there are f i s h . This may be the West Coast (of Vancouver Island), the northern i n l e t s such as Hi vers or Bella Cocla or even up to the Queen Charlotte Islands and the Nass and Skeena r i v e r s . The fishermen of Sointula pride themselves on being the highliner f l e e t of the northern communities. They recognize a loose form of common i d e n t i t y and may help each other out with fouled equipment or i n relaying messages. Some boats f i s h together as a group. The Sointula f l e e t has adopted channel #19 on the CB radio as i t s own. There are many other community channels; a l e r t Bay for example, has channel #14, Though there i s cooperation among fishermen, competitiveness i s 41 also very strong, This i s r e f l e c t e d i n the secrecy with which information about good areas i s kept and more generally i n the strong orientation towards the monetary rewards of f i s h i n g , A t r a d i t i o n of f i s h i n g e x i s t s i n the community. There are families where three generations of men are a l l a c t i v e l y involved i n f i s h i n g . Of the comparatively large segment of the population that i s r e t i r e d , many of them have spent a l i f e t i m e at sea as fishermen, ahen they reminisce, they can r e c a l l the days when f i s h i n g was done from a rowing s k i f f and nets and l i n e s were pulled i n manually. Their fingers are thickened and bent from those years spent at sea. There are s t i l l a few in d i v i d u a l s i n the community who were a l i v e at the time of the founding of the community and they recount a fascinating history of l i f e i n t h i s small community on the P a c i f i c coast. 3.3 Sointula i n a Regional Context Sointula i s characterised by a number of features, many of which are shared with other f i s h i n g communities on the coast and some of which are unigue. There i s no absolute c l a s s i f i c a t i o n by which the coastal communities can be categorized. The degree to which Sointula can be viewed as t y p i c a l or as unigue depends on the weighting given to d i f f e r e n t factors. The coastal communities range from the urban centers of the lower mainland with thousand of vessels to an isolated community such as Klemtu with only a few small boats and a population of a few hundred. The only available c l a s s i f i c a t i o n of f i s h i n g communities of the B.C. Coast i s that of S i n c l a i r (1971). The purpose of his study was to assess the importance of f i s h i n g to a sample of coastal 42 communities.„ The c l a s s i f i c a t i o n u t i l i s e d f i v e variables, measured on twenty-one communities situated on the B.C. coast. The five variables were: 1) population; 2) t o t a l income for the community; 3) percent of t o t a l income i n the non-service sector; 4) percent of the population of native background; 5) percent of the labour force employed i n f i s h i n g . The communities were im p r e s s i o n i s t i c a l l y c l a s s i f i e d into four categories - hamlet, settlement, v i l l a g e and town. Each category was then discussed i n terms of i t s potential f o r economic growth. A s t a t i s t i c a l re-analysis of t h i s c l a s s i f i c a t i o n was carried out (see Appendix 3 for a detailed description). An i n i t i a l c l u s t e r analysis of the data did not suggest the proposed categories. Two variables, i n d i c a t i n g r e l a t i v e i s o l a t i o n - distance from Vancouver and distance from the nearest regional center - were added to the data base. The array of seven variables on twenty-one communities was subjected to the more refined procedure of discriminant analysis. The discriminant functions were formed on the twenty-one cases. The function i s a weighted l i n e a r combination of variables that forces groups to be as s t a t i s t i c a l l y d i s t i c t as possible. The scores f o r each of the communities were plotted on cartesian coordinates, the axes being the scores on the discriminating functions. The graphs (figures a.2, a.3 in the appendix 3) indicate a lack of a b i l i t y to separate the categories numbered 2 and 3. Further c l u s t e r analysis using weighted, Euclidean, complete linkage (Cooley and Lobnes 1972) on unstandardized scores was able to distinguish the categories 1 and 4 but unable to distinguish c l e a r l y between 2 and 3. The conclusion was drawn 43 that the d i s t i n c t i o n between category 2, v i l l a g e , and category 3,settlement, made by S i n c l a i r , was not s t a t i s t i c a l l y j u s t i f i e d by the data base. The basis for the d i s t i n c t i o n made, was described as ( S i n c l a i r , 1971 p51) .: "... The population of a v i l l a g e i s usually dominated by a single r a c i a l or ethnic group. Villages have a small service sector commensurate with the size of t h e i r population and usually only one base industry ... Communities which are defined as settlements, usually have a substantial permenant population which i s t i e d to the economic a c t i v i t y of the area., These communities have f a i r l y well developed service sectors which serve the sparsely populated surrounding regions. Because these communities normally have more than one industry contributing to the economic base they usually have good growth potential." The data base i t s e l f , contains three counter-indications to these conclusions. These are that: 1) The variable, % non-service income, i s the same for settlement and v i l l a g e s . 2) A variable, for the permanency of the population, i s not included. 3) Race i s the primary basis i s for the d i s t i n c t i o n made for category 2, v i l l a g e . I t i s not, however, necessarily relevant to the question of the importance of f i s h i n g and the potential f o r economic growth of the community. The variable race, i s also not commensurable with the other variables as the factors of history, culture, and st r u c t u r a l ineguality are es s e n t i a l to i t s understanding (for example see Cox 1968).. Sointula, as a Finnish 44 community, was c l a s s i f i e d as a v i l l a g e on the basis of "race". The c l a s s i f i c a t i o n distinguishing settlements and v i l l a g e s cannct be supported, nor can race be used as an indicator of potential for economic development. S t a t i s t i c a l analysis does support a simple three way c l a s s i f i c a t i o n of small and i s o l a t e d communities with populations of several hundred, v i l l a g e s with populations of up to about two thousand, and regional towns. Additional socio-economic and demographic factors are required to distinguish Sointula i n the regional context. The important distinguishing features can be considered i n two contexts. The f i r s t i s the pattern of r u r a l and urban development. The second i s the r e l a t i o n to neighbouring resource communities i n general and to the f i s h i n g communities of the area, i n p a r t i c u l a r . A regional approach to s o c i o - c u l t u r a l study was f i r s t proposed by Redfield (1941). He described a pattern of d i f f u s i o n of urban influence i n t o the remote regions of the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico. The isol a t e d communities at one pole cf a developmental continuum retained t r a d i t i o n a l forms of culture, which were in existence prior to contact with western c i v i l i z a t i o n s . The monetary economy was not so pervasive that non-monetary forms of household production and systems of sharing were excluded. A second type of v i l l a g e that existed was intermediary between the folk and urban extremes..Here a variety of occupations, such as wholesale buyers of l o c a l produce and venders of manufactured goods, resided. In Mexico, t h i s intermediary position was also associated with the Mestizo peoples of mixed Spanish and Indian background. The regional 45 urban centre was characterized as having a class structure of working, middle and upper segments and a important part of the economy a c t i v i t y concerned with the linkages to international markets. More recent work, in anthropology, has focused on a s o c i a l basis for distinguishing r u r a l and urban areas (Southall 1974) and the geographical analysis of regional d i v e r s i f i c a t i o n (CA. Smith 1976, Olsen 1977) . Sointula has a semi-independent existence at the fringe of urban s a t e l l i t e towns, such as Campbell River. I t also i s , with the companion community of Alert Bay, a center of a system of isolat e d populations scattered among the islands and i n l e t s of the adjacent mainland. The settlement of the coast produced a pattern overlaid on an aboriginal population d i s t r i b u t i o n . In the North Island region, there are many small and scattered Indian communities such as Mamillakula and Kingcome I n l e t . Alert Bay has served as the focus for the funnelling of western goods and services into the area and has been the receptor of immigration from the smaller communities. Primary resources f i s h and lumber - are shipped out to the urban centers of Vancouver and V i c t o r i a and thence to international markets. I t i s within t h i s pattern of metropole and hinterland that Sointula was established at the turn of the century. Regional perspectives on the North Island (University of B r i t i s h Columbia 1968) has focused on the network of linkages between communities. Primary centers are c i t i e s such as V i c t o r i a , while secondary communities are regional economic and administrative centers such as Port McNeill. Communities such as Sointula occupy a t e r t i a r y , d i s t a l position i n the network. 46 within the region of the north i s l a n d , Sointula and Alert Bay are the centers of f i s h i n g . Bepair services and equipment suppliers for the f i s h i n g communities are located i n Al e r t Bay. U n t i l the early 1960*s Sointula was a center of ship building i n the region with seven yards operating at the height of the a c t i v i t i e s . High labour costs and the long training involved i n ship building are the factors causing the decline i n t h i s industry. The most rapid growth i n the area has been i n Port McNeill, a logging town and Port Hardy, a community depending p r i n c i p a l l y on employment from mining at the nearby Utah copper mines. Scheduled jet services from Vancouver runs to Port Hardy on a d a i l y basis. S p e c i a l i t y r e t a i l shops and f a c i l i t i e s for entertainment and recreation are located in these towns. Port Hardy and Port McNeill are company towns (Lucas 1971); the forestry and mining companies control most of the aspects of land, housing and employment. Consolidation of the f i s h i n g industry within a few large companies has also occurred. This has an important e f f e c t on career p r o f i l e s . The company keeps clcse records on the production performance of each fisherman. Advancement to being the skipper of a large seine boat, financing of vessels and cr e d i t for equipment from the company, a l l depend on an i n d i v i d u a l s production record and a b i l i t y to get along with company managers and policy. An opinion often expressed among Sointula fishermen i s that they are more independent than other f i s h i n g communities.. This i s a r e s u l t of two f a c t o r s : 1) There i s a r e l a t i v e l y high proportion of owner-operated boats in the communities f l e e t ; 47 2) There are several "cash buyers" purchasing f o r smaller l o c a l processing companies. These buyers provide provide alternatives to the major packing firms f o r the sale of f i s h . The persistence of small scale enterprise i s an important distinguishing feature of the community. ,A concomitant factor i n Sointula i s the d i s t i n c t age structure and higher r e s i d e n t i a l s t a b i l t y i n comparison with other resource based communities. These differences may have important planning implications, because the c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of Sointula have been overlooked i n recent regional development studies. The a i d - C o a s t Report (Dept. of Economic Development 1974) while considering the potential for economic development i n the region*s f i s h e r i e s , assumes that f i s h i n g communities are l i k e other resource towns in the area. The following chapters w i l l analyse in d e t a i l the structure of the community and the course of i t s development. 48 CHAPTER 4 POPULATION This chapter i s concerned with the basic parameters of population and the determinants of population change in Sointula. The answers to four questions are sought. These are: 1) What i s the age structure of the population? 2) What are the c h a r a c t e r i s t i c population processes of migration, b i r t h , and death? 3) How i s the population changing over time? 4) Hhat are the factors, p a r t i c u l a r l y concerning resource use, that underlie these changes? In trying to answer these questions, two basic perspectives on population w i l l be developed. tThe f i r s t i s age structure. Age structure i s one of the most important of the s t a t i c variables of population, as i t shows the r e l a t i v e proportion of d i f f e r e n t age groups. I t can point to conditions i n the past that have influenced the population, as well as, delimit the future trends. Secondly, population processes - migration, births and deaths - are basic rate variables about which information i s required i n order to understand demographic change. Under conditions of i s o l a t i o n , a population with constant b i r t h and death rates eventually attains a stable d i s t r i b u t i o n of age groups known as the normal population (Keyfitz and Fleiger 1971}. Population v i t a l rates in the community are. 49 however, changing. For example, the demographic t r a n s i t i o n of modern society involves declining mortality followed by a decrease i n the birth rate. Random variations, such as changes in the sex r a t i o , and unique h i s t o r i c a l factors may be pa r t i c u l a r l y important i n small populations. / Small populations may also be strongly influenced by migrations resulting from s o c i a l change. Urbanization has resulted i n the depopulation cf rural areas in many countries ( P i t i e 1971). Sointula, unlike many small communities founded i n the same period i n B.C., has survived and grown. To investigate the basis of t h i s tenacity and the way i n which the community has responded to change i s the aim of thi s chapter. 4.1 Description of the Data Base The Canada census provides information on r u r a l communities. In the case of Sointula, an unincorporated municipality, t h i s information i s available in the form of enumeration area statistics.,These figures, for the years 1971 and 1976, were subjected to the procedure of "random rounding" (Canada Census 1971). The l a s t d i g i t of each figure i s randomly changed, for reasons of c o n f i d e n t i a l i t y . The random rounding and sampling error mean that highly dissaggregated s t a t i s t i c s , such as a detailed breakdown of occupational groups, are of limi t e d accuracy for enumeration areas. Several methods were employed in t h i s study to obtain additional demographic information: a preliminary door-to-door household survey was conducted, school records were obtained. 50 and h i s t o r i c a l documents searched. The survey sas conducted with the use of a short questionnaire, {figure 6.4). Households were contacted only once; repeat c a l l s were not possible. The survey was carried out i n the period of July 15-30. The interviewer introduced himself as conducting a survey of Sointula for a study being done at the University of B r i t i s h Columbia. The occupant was asked i f he or she would answer a few questions. The questions were ordered so that the most general was asked f i r s t , such as - "How long have you l i v e d i n Sointula?" This led up t c more s p e c i f i c guestions of age, occupation and whether any family members were l i v i n g away from town. School records were obtained from two sources, The f i r s t was the l o c a l primary school, which provided c l a s s l i s t s , and b i r t h dates of students. For the current year, the numbers of students who had moved were obtained. The regional school board provided a l i s t of the numbers of students, by class for the twenty year period f o r which they were maintained. A ten year l i s t of b i r t h dates of a l l students was also obtained. H i s t o r i c a l documents referenced are the f i r s t telephone d i r e c t o r i e s , back issues of l o c a l newspapers,as well as, the published h i s t o r i e s of Halminen (1936) and Anderson (1967). An opportunity f o r an extended interview with one of the l a s t surviving members of the o r i g i n a l colony was conducted and provided important insights into the development of the community (Appendix 1)., 4.2 Population Structure One of the most s a l i e n t c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of the population 51 is i t s t o t a l s i z e . The Census provides the population t o t a l s for the years 1951,56,61,66,71,76. H i s t o r i c a l estimates are available at odd i n t e r v a l s f o r a few of the past years. Host h i s t o r i c a l data was available for the early years of colonisation when accurate records were kept. Table 4.1 summarizes the information available and the sources for population figures. Table 4.1 Information and Source for Sointula*s Population year population source 1901 17 Halminen (1936), Andersen (1967) 1902 150 Andersen 1903 237 Andersen 1905 120 Andersen 1910 200 interview with informant A. T. 1931 450 Halminen, Andersen 1936 >500{?) Halminen, footnote p.216, says that population was "much more than 500", He does not state that i s derived from the census, as for the 1931 record. 19 40 400 Alert Bay Pioneer Journal, Hay 1,194 1951 404 Canada Census 1956 581 Canada Census 1961 678 Canada Census 1966 574 Canada Census 1971 675 Canada Census 1976 762 Canada Census 1977 740 Preliminary household survey The general trend i n population i s a gradual increase i n s i z e . The exception, i n the years for which census information i s available, i s between 1961 and 1966. To examine population trends i n more d e t a i l , we turn to the population pyramids for the years of the census and from the f i e l d study, figures 4.J-4.4. (The figures are at the end of the chapter.) I t should be noted that that there are some differences i n reporting the census between years. These differences are: 52 1) more age grades are used i n the 1961 and 1966 census than i n the 1971 census., 2) The enumeration areas (E. A.) for Sointula i s d i f f e r e n t i n 1961 and 1966, than i n 1971 and 1976. In the e a r l i e r years, an unincorporated part of Alert Bay was added to the Sointula census returns. This area was reported separately i n 1976. On the basis of t h i s additional information, a 153J reduction was made to the 1961 and 1966 E.A. t o t a l s for the population of Sointula. For comparablitity between census, figures 4.1, 4.2, and 4.4 have been converted to 1971 age grades. Figures 4.5-4.14 show the f u l l data sets by sex and complete age grades. In 1961, the population of Sointula was 678. Almost one-half of the population (48%) was under the age of 25, and 15% under the age of 5. The proportion of people 55 years and older was 17%. Comparing the 1961 and 1966 census returns, we note that the population had dropped by 104 to a t o t a l of 574. The proportions of i n d i v i d u a l s i n the different age groups had also changed. Most s i g n i f i c a n t was the drop i n the numbers under 5 years. In 1961, 117 were i n t h i s category, while i n 1966, there were only 71. The proportion under 5 years was 11% i n 1966 and of those under 25, was 44%. The average age of the population had increased from 30.9 years in 1961 to 33.4 years i n 1966., Looking at other age groups, a decrease occurred i n the 15-25 age group, from 95 i n 1961 to 73 i n 1966. In 1961 there were 129 i n the 5-15 age group and 117 in 1966. In 1961, 96 (14%) of the population were i n the 45-55 age group while i n 1966, 79 remained i n the 55-65 age group. The comparison of age groups 53 leads to the conclusion that the largest decline i n the population occurred i n the 0-5, 15-25 and 25-35 age groups. In 1971, the t o t a l population increased by 106 to 675, though the proportions i n the 0-5 age group decreased from 11$ to 7$. Increase was registered to the greatest extent in the 15-25 group from 13$ i n 1S66 to 16$ i n 1971, A large increase i n the 5-15 group also occurred in comparison with the expectations from the 0-5 group i n 1966. , The t o t a l population continued to increase by the amount of 65 i n d i v i d u a l s to 740 in 1977. This figure i s derived from the household survey, which reached 55$ of the households. The 1976 census returns released to date, give only the t o t a l population, which i s l i s t e d as 76 2 for Sointula. The largest proportional increase i n 1977 was i n the 0-5 and 25-35 age classes. The average age i n 1977 does not d i f f e r greatly from that i n 1971, 33.2 compared with 32.9. The dependency r a t i o i s the proportion of i n d i v i d u a l s i n the non-employed groups, 0-15 and over 65, to those p o t e n t i a l l y i n the labour force, 15-65. I t i s an indicator of the proportion of the population i n the non-working category. The trend over a 15 years period, table 4.2, shows a gradual decrease i n the dependency r a t i o . The change i n the dependency r a t i o shows a consistent trend toward the concentration of the population i n the working, adult age classes. Information on the average household si z e i s a v a i l a b l e from the census only for 1971, when i t was l i s t e d as 2.8 i n d i v i d u a l s per household. The 1977 survey figure also gave 2.8 as the average household s i z e . ,• 54 Table 4.2 Dependency Ratio: ages 0-15+>65/16-65 1961 1966 1971 1977 .72 .71 .63 .57 The age structure of the neighbouring communities of Al e r t Bay and Port McNeill are shown i n f i g . 4.15-4.18. In comparison with sointula, a younger population i s indicated. Comparing the 1961 and 1966 figures for Alert Bay, a decrease in population i s noted. Residential s t a b l i t y , figures 4.21 and 4.22, shows that 65% of households and 55% of individuals are resident for ten years or more. The differences between the town centre of Sointula and outlying areas of Kaleva road and Mitchel Bay are shown i n the 1977 census results. Fig. 4.19 and 4.20 shows that the l a t t e r areas, because they have received many of the recent migrants, have a d i f f e r e n t age structure from the town center. The majority of the residents of the peripheral regions are of the ages 25-45, r e f l e c t i n g the higher mobility that i s c h a r a c t e r i s t i c of t h i s group./ 4.3 Demographic Processes: Births and Deaths The primary processes of population are migration, b i r t h and death. Information gathered on these parameters i s derived from a variety of sources, d i f f e r i n g i n length and q u a l i t y . Information on deaths and marriaqe i n the community fo r the past ten years was obtained from extant parish records, table 4.3. Previous to 1968, there are no available records on deaths i n the community. Headstones were not usually inscribed with dates, so that t h i s i n d i r e c t source of information was not 55 Table 4.3 Deaths and Marriages i n Sointula Source:parish records of the Sointula Community Church YEAB MORTALITY MOBT. RATE MARRIAGES 1960 6 1961 2 1962 3 1963 1 1964 0 1965 4 1966 1 1967 1 1968 9 13.3 0 1969 4 5.9 2 1970 5 7.4 1 1971 5 7.4 5 1972 4 5.9 3 1973 8 11.9 3 1974 10 14.8 6 1975 9 13.3 1 1976 2 2.9 5 1977 4 5.9 4 Table 4.4 V i t a l Bates for Census D i s t r i c t 5f, North Vancouver Island YEAR POP. BIBTH BATE DEATH BATE NET BATE 1951 7,803 24/1000 6.3/1000 17.8/1000 1961 9,960 28.8/1000 6.4/10C0 22.3/1000 1971 10,408 23.3/1000 5.0/1000 19.4/1000 available. „. V i t a l rates for the census d i s t r i c t incorporating Sointula are shown i n Table 4.4. In the period 1961 to 1971, b i r t h and mortality rates declined. The decrease i n n a t a l i t y was 5.5 per thousand and i n mortality was 1.4 per thousand. The decrease in net growth rate was 2.9 per thousand. More detailed v i t a l s t a t i s t i c s f or the years 1971 to 1976 are shown i n table 4.4a. In th i s table, the s t a t i s t i c s for the Regional d i s t r i c t of Mount Haddington, {formerly census d i v i s i o n 5f) are further broken down., The incorporated municipalities are shown m in FIG. 4 . 4 a LIVE BIRTHS AND DEATHS AMONG RESIDENTS OF MOUNT WADDINGTON REGIONAL DISTRICT, AND MARRIAGES OCCURRING IN MOUNT WADDINGTON REGIONAL DISTRICT, SHOWING ORGANIZED AND UN-ORGANIZED AREAS, 1971 - 1976 1 9 7 1 1 9 7 2 1 9 7 3 1 9 7 4 1 9 7 5 1 9 7 6 1 Area B i r t h s i 1 1 Deaths i 1 Mar-riages Eirths Deaths Mar-riages B i r t h s i i ! Deaths i 1 i ! Mar-jriages j Births [Deaths Mar-riages B i r t h s [Deaths Mar-riages B i r t h s JDeaths Mar-riages A l e r t Bay . . . 32 i i 13 9 27 8 19 33 1 i i : 6 ! 1 7 28 7 ! 7 22 1 5 6 13 i 7 | 15 Port A l i c e . . . 33 3 2 38 4 8 35 i 3 | 5 26 4 ! 4 24 6 J 6 24 1 ! 2 4 Port Hardy . . . 61 i 9 15 79 8 8 78 i 4 i 15 89 13 | 27 86 8 | 21 75 i 8 37 Port McNeill . . 21 • 9 4 26 3 10 23 2 12 32 3 ! 3 31 4 ! 5 35 2 12 Unorganized . . 96 " i 13 107 22 8 107 28 7 126 31 1 15 129 32 ! 12 124 28 8 Total . . . . 243 52 i 43 277 45 i 53 276 43 56 301 58 ! 56 292 55 ! 50 271 47 ! 76 1. Preliminary SOURCES: B r i t i s h Columbia Annual Reports of v i t a l S t a t i s t i c s , S t a t i s t i c s Canada, and Annual Machine tabulations of v i t a l s t a t i s t i c s punch-card records by the D i v i s i o n of V l t f d S t a t i s t i c s 56 separately, with the unincorporated areas lumped into one category. Sointula i s the largest unincorporated area, the others being the primarily logging communities of Winter Harbour, Coal Harbour, Zeballos, Kokish, Nimpkish. The proportion of the t o t a l u unincorporated areas " figure that i s accounted for by Sointula can be estimated by comparing figures in table 4.3 and 4.4a. From 1971 to 1976 a t o t a l of 166 deaths occurred i n the unincorporated areas of which 38 or 23% occurred i n Sointula. 4.4 Demographic Processes: Migration Information on migration rates were derived through the use of the l i f e table method and from school records. The l i f e table method (Henry 1976) uses the age s p e c i f i c v i t a l rates and age structure of the population to i n f e r migration r a t e s . Migration i s taken as a residual factor responsible for population change between census years. The l i f e table for Sointula i n the years between 1961 and 1977 i s shown i n table 4.5. Age s p e c i f i c mortality rates are used to calculate survivorship of cohorts f i v e years into the future. The vector of rates that was used was drawn from Keyfitz and Fleiger {1971). Table 4.5 shows the difference between the expected and observed population by age, f o r each f i v e year i n t e r v a l . The difference between expected and observed population provides an estimate of net migration. The s i z e of migration i n numbers of in d i v i d u a l s , by age, i s shown. Net emigration was highest i n 1961-66, averaging about 5% of the t o t a l population per year. The largest percentage drop occurred i n the youth and young 57 Table 4.5 Migration Estimates by Cohort Method Age Population i n year: 1961 1966 observed expected observed r e s i d u a l migration 0 102 98 61 -37 5 129 165 117 -48 15 95 111 73 -38 25 76 85 64 -21 35 68 71 62 -9 45 96 80 58 -22 55 63 76 79 + 3 65 55 71 60 -9 total=-181 average migration rate=-556 per year 1966 1971 0 61 72 50 -22 5 117 118 130 + 12 15 73 94 105 + 11 25 64 73 85 + 12 35 62 67 80 + 13 45 58 58 60 + 2 55 79 64 75 • 11 65 60 82 75 -7 total=+32 average migration rate= 13J per year 1971 1977 0 50 78 90 • 12 5 130 114 94 -20 15 105 117 122 + 5 25 85 94 130 •36 35 80 81 83 • 2 45 60 68 65 -3 55 75 64 72 • 8 65 75 93 86 -7 total=+33 average migration rate=1% per year adult age groups. Migration reversed i n 1966-71 with the largest change occurring f o r the 5-45 age groups. In 1S71-77 migration was also indicated as being positive with a pa r t i c u l a r concentration i n the 25-35 year group. Comparing the periods 1961-66 and 1971-77, shows that there was a net loss of 21 in d i v i d u a l s in the 25-35 group i n the e a r l i e r period (and an even larger decline i n the 15-25 group). 58 while i n the 1970*s there was a gain of 36 ind i v i d u a l s i n the young adult category. The second method of specifying migration was through the use of school records. Table 4.5a shows the roster of students in 1976-77 and those having l e f t or entered during the academic year. Past records were analysed to obtain migration rates for students and estimates of migration i n the t o t a l population. The school roster was only available for the current year, but past administrative records provided data on the b i r t h dates of a l l students for the years 1966-76 and the class s i z e s for the years 1956-76. Table 4.5a SCHOOL BECORE 1976-77 Number of Students at the A.J. E l l i o t School, 1976-77 I sale female enrollment 33 49 added from outside BC 2 0 added from BC 7 gross 42 59 transfer to BC schools 9 9 gross 33 50 withdrew 1 3 went outside BC 3 2 net no. Of students 29 45 The l i s t s of student*s b i r t h dates were used to deduce migration rates i n Sointula during a twenty year period. A computer program was written to compare b i r t h dates i n any one year to those i n the previous and the following years. In t h i s way, students who are immigrants i n the year being examined and those who leave in the following year are i d e n t i f i e d . 5 9 Immigration and emigration for the years 1 9 6 6 and 1 9 7 6 are shown in table 4 . 6 . Data from b i r t h dates were used to calculate net migration (method "A") and compared with the re s u l t s using class l i s t s (method "B", see below). The terminal years were biased i n the b i r t h date method as was the year 1 9 6 9 f o r which grade 3 data was missing (biased years are starred). Table 4.6 EMIGRATION AND IMMIGRATION FROM SOINTULA ESTIMATES FROM BIRTH DATES (NUMBER OF STUDENTS PER YEAR) 6 6 - 6 7 EMIGRATION 14 IMMIGRATION 21 NET MIGRATION 6* METHOD »A» NET MIGRATION -8 METHOD «B* 6 7 - 6 8 2 5 17 -8 -4 6 8 - 6 9 13 13 0 2 6 9 - 7 0 16 13 - 3 * 8 7 0 - 7 1 J 7 1 - 7 2 J — — 17 | 17 I 12 | 28 1-- 5 | 9 — 1 - 1 0 | 1 2 - - - - - | — • 7 2 - 7 3 16 6 - 1 0 - 3 7 3 - 7 4 J 7 4 - 7 5 , 12 | 14 I 12 J 15 1 0 | 1 * I — — - 3 | - 9 1 The l i s t s of the class s i z e for twenty years were used to deduce net migration i n each year..Given the low mortality and i n s i g n i f i c a n t dropout rate in the grades 1-7 that were used, changes i n cla s s size between successive years did indicate net migration of students between the ages 6 and 13. Table 4*7 shows the re s u l t s f o r net migration for the twenty year period over which data were available. Tables 4.8 and 4.9 show the f i v e year average for immigration and emigration and for net migration. 60 The figures for net migration show that the greatest out Table 4.7 NET MIGRATION (NUMBER OF STUDENTS PER YEAR) ESTIMATES FBGM CLASS LISTS YEAR 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 NET MIGRATION -2 +1 +8 +1 -3 +1 -19 +2 -13 -14 YEAR 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 NET MIGRATION -8 -4 +2 +8-10+12 -3 -3 -9 +7 Table 4.8 EMIGRATION AND IMMIGRATION: FIVE YEAR AVERAGES (NUMBER OF STUDENTS/YEAR) EMIGRATION IMMIGRATION NET MIGR ATION 1966-70 17.0 15.2 -1.8 1971-75 14.7 14.2 -0.5 Table 4.9 NET MIGRATION:FIVE YEAR AVERAGES ESTIMATED TOTAL MIGRATION IN FIVE YEAR PERIOD FROM: SCHOOL RECORDS | LIFE TABLE 1957-1961 .... 25 I 1962-1966 ...., -200 I -181 1967-1S71 .... -75 I 32 1972-1976 .... -25 I 33 migration of people occurred in the f i r s t half of the decade of 61 the 1960*s. Net migration was most positive i n the periods 1957-61 and 1972-76 the net migration can be broken down into the immigration and emigration components for the years 1966-75. The f i v e year averages suggest that emigration decreased to a greater extent than immigration i n t h i s period. Taken together with the age pyramids and informant r e c a l l , t h i s suggests that the high net negative migration of the 1960's was a result of the emigration of the young adult segment. Hypotheses concerning the cause of population change over t h i s period w i l l be examined in d e t a i l l a t e r i n the chapter. The school data are most useful for comparing migration between years. A measure of the t o t a l student plus adult migration could be made i f average family size and the r e l a t i o n of family to non-school aged family and single person migration rates were known. A rough estimate of the t o t a l migration can be made using the 1977 figure f o r f a a i l y s i z e of 5.2, among high school students. These migration estimates are shown i n figure 4.9 along side those of the l i f e table method. Good agreement on outffligraticn i n the early 1960*s i s obtained. The discrepancy i n 1967-71 may be attributed to a lower proportion of children to adults that characterized the population at that time. The population increases the 1970*s are associated with the migration of young adults to Sointula. This i s shown by the age pyranids, the peak migration estimates for t h i s age group and by the s p a t i a l growth pattern i n the town, as i t was observed i n 1977. Bias factors i n the migration estimates w i l l be tabulated now. Four bias factors occur: 62 1) Contamination of the Sointula population by the Alert Bay sector i n the 1961 and 1966 census. By examining the Alert Bay t o t a l population for these years (figures 4.15,4.16) i t may be observed that an age structure change did not occur. I t i s therefore unlikely that the observed s h i f t s i n Sointula sere due to t h i s contamination factor i n the census returns. 2) Changes may have occurred i n the v i t a l rates over time. The regional v i t a l rates show only a small change i n net reproduction between 1961 and 1971 (table 4.4). Stochastic deviations may be pronounced i n small populations (table 4.3), however, f i v e year averages were u t i l i z e d f o r most of the analysis, 3) The estimate of migration from school records i s based on sampling from children i n grades 1-7, Other migrants are unaccounted for, S t a t i o n a r i t y i n family size and migration patterns by age are assumed by t h i s method. Alternative estimates by the l i f e table technique provided cross-validation for the r e s u l t s , 4) The inte r a c t i o n between demographic and socioeconomic variables may accelerate or dampen migration. Inference on causation may be unduely s i m p l i f i e d i f these e f f e c t s are ignored. In the following chapters the s o c i a l and economic features are studied and a synthetic model i s then formulated, 4,5 Attitude Factors i n Migration Future migration patterns are dependent on the attitudes of 63 the young people of the community, currently registered i n the school system. In order to understand the attitudes of the young people toward t h e i r future residence, a survey was conducted i n the North Island Secondary School. Beaching one hundred precent of the students present. The students were from Sointula and about a dozen other communities i n the North Island where logging and mining are the chief industry. A comparison of the responses of the students from Sointula and the other types of communities was made possible. Ten questions were asked on the questionnaire concerning demography, parent's occupation, career plans and mobility. The results are described i n more d e t a i l i n Chapter 6. Hith regard to mobility, the question was asked: "Where would you l i k e to l i v e after you graduate: same as now elsewhere on Vancouver Island Vancouver other. " The answers are broken down for Sointula versus a l l ether communities. A contingency table of the responses (Table 4.10) shows the answers i n Sointula compared with the ether communities together. The s i g n i f i c a n t chi-sguare indicates a s t a t i s t i c a l l i k e l i h o o d of s i g n i f i c a n t differences i n responses of students from Sointula., In table 4.11, i s a two-way contingency analysis. , The answers for desired future residence are divided into 1) stay i n the same place; 2) other than the same place (combining the other three choices). Students from Sointula i n d i c a t i n g that they prefer to stay in the same Table 4.10 THOHAY CBOSS-TABULATION FOE RESIDENTIAL PBEFEBENCES CUBBBENT BESIDENCE: 1=ALL OTHERS 2=SOINTULA DESIBED 1 2 RESIDE NCE: TOTAL= 313 289 29 Vancouver Is. 70 68 2 expect 64 6 Other 139 124 15 expect 126 13 Same 67 56 11 expect 61 6 Vancouver 37 36 1 expect 34 3 TESTS OF INDEPENDENCE STATISTIC SIGNIF DF=3 N=313 MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD 10.896 .0123 CHI-SQUABE 9.7772 .0206 * Table 4.11 RESIDENTIAL PREFERENCES AS A STAY VEESOS LEAVE CHOICE DESIRED FOTOBE BESIDENCE: OTHEB SAME PLACE AS NOB CUBRENT BESIDENCE: TOTAL 313 OTHER TOHNS 284 EXPECT SOINTULA 29 EXPECT TEST OF INDEPENDENCE MAXHUM LIKELIHOOD CHI-SQUARE 246 67 228 56 223 61 18 11 23 6 STATISTIC SIGNIF DF=1 N=3" 4.5788 .0324 5.1880 .0227* 65 community were s t a t i s t i c a l l y more prevalent than those who reside i n other communities i n the region. The future patterns of migration are importantly dependent on t h i s segment of the young adult community who wish to remain l i v i n g i n Sointula as a place of permanent residence. The s o c i a l , c u l t u r a l and economic bases for t h i s community, w i l l be examined i n d e t a i l i n l a t e r chapters. The f i n a l section of t h i s chapter examines alternative hypotheses of the causes of population change i n Sointula. 4.5 Causes of Demographic Change In the f i e l d study of Sointula, the perceptions of past conditions and responses to change by the inhabitants was a focus of inquiry. The general trend toward a population increase on Halcolm Island was widely recognized by the inhabitants. Only the most knowledgeable of informants were able to relate i n d e t a i l the changes that occurred i n the 1960 rs. Through documentary research of Census s t a t i s t i c s , i t was learned that that the population had declined i n the f i r s t part of the decade of the 1960*s while a trend of gradual increase had been shown in the 1950*S and 1970*s. Three hypothesis may be put forth as conjectures on the reasons for t h i s pattern of population change: 1) It i s a r e s u l t of declining salmon catches; 2) I t i s a r e s u l t of the age s t r a t i f i c a t i o n of the community; 3) I t i s due to socio-economic and c u l t u r a l changes between the urban and North Island areas. Relevent information w i l l be garnered to assess the v a l i d i t y of 66 each hypothesis. The f i r s t hypothesis i s that emigration follows a decline in the salmon catch. In order to test t h i s hypothesis, s t a t i s t i c s on the salmon catch of the Sointula f l e e t were needed. Catch s t a t i s t i c s f o r the Sointula vessels alone, are not available, but t h e i r catch can be inferred using Dept. of Fisheries S t a t i s t i c s . McKay (1977) l i s t s (table 4.12) the mobility of f i s h i n g vessesl i n B.C. In 1974. Extracting information for the Johnstone S t r a i t s vessels, of which the Sointula f l e e t i s the major component, shows that the main f i s h i n g areas were the Johnstone S t r a i t s , and the Central coast. In the past, i t i s Table 4.12 Johnstone S t r a i t s Fleet Mobility Percent of salmon income caught in s t a t i s t i c a l areas: N.Coast Central H.Van.Is. Johnstone Fraser/Grg.St, 10.3 28, 9 20.0 28.1 17.8 l i k e l y that the f l e e t was more l o c a l i z e d , because the pressure for high mobility has been greatest since the l a t e 1960»s (Fraser 1977). The gross catch of salmon (in m i l l i o n s of dollars) for area #12 the main s t a t i s t i c a l f i s h e r i e s regions i n the Johnstone S t r a i t s and i n the Central coast are shown i n Fig. 4.23. A l i n e a r l e a s t sguares, lagged regression was ca r r i e d out with the dependent variable, the migration rate for the years 1956-76, and the independent variable, the log of the salmon catch lagged by three years. The log of the catch was used, as the migration rate was assumed to more plausibly be a function of the r a t i o of catch s i z e , from one year to the next. This 67 implies diminishing rates of increase i n immigration, follows from increased salmon harvest. The migration i f a positive number i s defined as immigration and i f negative, as emigration, using the terminology of the previous section. The lag of three years was chosen on the basis of a n c i l l a r y information collected during economic interviews on the response of fishermen to changing conditions (Chapter 5). The results for the regression are shown i n table 4. 13. The n u l l hypothesis of no relat i o n s h i p with the catch of area # 12 may be rejected at a probability l e v e l of .05. The Durban-Watson Table 4.13 Regression of migration rate on catch MIGRATION RATE = A + B*LOG (CATCH AREA #12 -3 YEARS) + ERROR LEAST SQUARES REGRESSION ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE SOURCE DF SUM SQRS MEAN SQR F-STAT SIG REGRESSION 1 .63109 -1 .6310 9 -1 4.6397 .045* ERROR 18 .24484 .13602-1 TOTAL 19 .3C795 MULT R= .45270 R-SQR= .20493 SE- .11663 VARIABLE PARTIAL COEFF STD ERROR T-STAT SIG CONSTANT -.14424 .55584-1-2.5950 .0183 IOGCAT -3 .45270 .10062 .46713 -1 2.1540 .0450 DURBAN SATSON TEST FOR AUTOCOBRELATED ERROR VARIABLE TOTAL VALID MISS DW BESIDUAL 26 20 6* 2.3181 (NS) test for autocorrelated error was carried out and found to be non-significant. A s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t r e l a t i o n between migration and the lagged catch i n Sointula for 1956-76 i s 68 suggested. The B 2 i s low at 0.20, indicating that only 20$ of the yearly variation i n migration i s accounted f o r by the salmon catch while 80% i s unaccounted f o r . The second hypothesis i s that the decrease i n population i s a conseguence cf the population structure of Sointula. The community was established in 1902 with what rose to a population of as many as 300, in 1904. Half of these remained i n 1905. The population history i s only sketchily known u n t i l the f i r s t available census data for t o t a l population in 1951. One of the l a s t survivors of the colony was interviewed on the topic of population, and was of the opinion that there has been a gradual r i s e u n t i l the present, of about 100 people per decade. For the mid-1930*s, Halminen gives an estimate of more than 500 i n contrast to 400 i n 1940 and 404 in 1951 (table 4.1). It i s plausible that a higher gross mortality occurred i n the community i n the l a t e 1930*s and the 1940»s as a r e s u l t of the aging of the o r i g i n a l c o l o n i s t s , causing a large drop i n population. Is i t also possible that the aging of the second generation i s responsible for the population decline i n the 1960»s? To answer th i s guestion an estimate of the s i z e of the increased mortality from age d i s t r i b u t i o n must be made. Examine the age pyramids for Sointula i n 1961 and 1966 ( f i g s . 4.7 and 4.10). The largest proportional decline i s from the age classes 5-10 and 20-25. However i n 1961, the 45-55 age group, of 96, was d i s t i n c t l y greater than might be expected i n a stable population. The most obvious difference i n 1966 was that the age group 45-55 was now 68, two-thirds of that of 1961. Aging of the 69 population thus did occur i n the a i d - s i x t i e s . One estimate of the effect of age structure on population change can be made by using the age s p e c i f i c mortality rates. The fiv e year probability of death i n Canada at f i f t y years of age in 1968, i s given as .046 (Keyfitz and Fleiger 1971). For 40 years of age, i t i s .017 or only one-third as high. However, given the small s i z e of the population, the e f f e c t of increased mortality would be expected to account for only a small proportion of the observed decline. For example, the larger 45-55 age group i n 1961 than 1966 (96 to 68) would resu l t i n mortality being increased by 28x^03 or 1 i n d i v i d u a l . Decrease i n the b i r t h rate from an aging population might also be expected to have a larger e f f e c t . However, though the young adult population declined, i t was deduced by the cohort method, to be a r e s u l t of migration, given the low mortality for t h i s group. The size of migration e f f e c t s i s an order of magnitude larger than age-mortality e f f e c t s . Estimates of t o t a l migration incurred i n the early 1960*s are i n the range of t h i r t y - f i v e to fo r t y persons per year. The t h i r d hypothesis to be examined i s that the population decline was due to migration as a r e s u l t of s o c i a l and c u l t u r a l change. In analysing migration i n Canada from the 1961 census. Stone (1969) found that there are s i g n i f i c a n t economic correlates to i n t e r - p r o v i n c i a l migration, but was unable to s t a t i s t i c a l l y distinguish any socio-economic correlates to shorter distance i n t r a - p r o v i n c i a l migration. He concluded that i n t r a - p r o v i n c i a l migration must be more strongly subject to unguantified factors, such as c u l t u r a l preferences. 7G In Sointula, the telephone was introduced i n 1956, radio and t e l e v i s i o n reception improved at t h i s time, and i n 1966 the high school was moved across the channel to Port McNeill. Are these changes that brought Sointula i n closer communication with the urban centers, responsible f o r increased emigration from Sointula? The e f f e c t of these factors cannot be adequately evaluated because of a lack of information and of a generally applicable theory of migration. ( Unemployment rate may be suggested as one indicator. The unemployment rate i n the years 1957-61 averaged 7.436 in B.C. As compared with 5.4S i n the years 1962-1966. A lower unemployment rate may be a " p u l l " factor for urban migration. A part of the population increase in the early 1970*S i s due to emigration cf young adults and retirement migration, suggesting the e f f e c t of changing r e s i d e n t i a l preferences and demographic changes in the national population. No comparable immigration stream could be i d e n t i f i e d i n the 1960*s. Return migration by former residents i s a factor which may be p a r t i c u l a r l y s e n s i t i v e to the s o c i a l and economic opportunities i n the urban areas, as the investment for short term moves i s l e s s than for permanent moves. A f u l l e r study of migration might be able to include t h i s factor through interviews with migrants now l i v i n g outside of Sointula. The conclusions can be summarized i n terms of the population budget: POPULATION CHANGE^ BIETHS-DEATHS-EMIGRATION+IMMIGBATION Changes i n age s p e c i f i c birth and death rates did not appear to be great enough to account f o r the observed change i n population s i z e , i n the 1960's. Population decline i n t h i s period was a 71 r e s u l t of a decrease i n young adults and children associated with out-migration. A clear d i s t i n c t i o n between the two hypotheses of the cause of migration - declining catches or s o c i o - c u l t u r a l change could not be made.; A s i g n i f i c a n t c o r r e l a t i o n between lagged catch in the immediate area, and migration was found. The e f f e c t of any change in catch must be f e l t through the economic system of commercial f i s h i n g on Malcclm i s l a n d . The following chapter pursues t h i s l i n e of investigation by analysing the economy of the fishermen of Sointula. FIGDSE 4. 1 SGINTULA 1961 CANADA CENSUS TOTAL POPULATION (EACH X=5) AGE % NO. 0. (15.0) 117 +XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 5.000 (19.0) 148 •xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 15.00 (14.0) 109 +XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 25.00 (11.2) 87 •XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 35.00 (10.0) 78 +XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 45.00 (14. 1) 110 +XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 55.00 < 9.3) 72 +XXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 65.00 { 8.1) 63 •xxxxxxxxxxxxx TOTAL=778 AVERAGE AGE=30.9 ESTIMATED POP. OF ALERT BAY UNICORPORATED MUNICIPALITY^1 ACTUAL TOTAL=678 FIGURE 4.2 SOINTULA 1966 CANADA CENSUS TOTAL POPULATION (EACH X=5) AGE % NO. 0. . (10.9) 71 •XXXXXXXXXXXXXX 5.000 (20.3) 136 +XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 15.00 (12.7) 85 •XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 25.00 (11.2) 75 •XXxxxxxxxxxxxxx 35.00 (10.8) 72 •xxxxxxxxxxxxxx 45.00 (10.6) 68 •XXXXXXXXXXXXXX 55.00 (13.8) 92 •XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 65.00 (10.5) 70 +xxxxxxxxxxxxxx TOTAL= 669 AVERAGE AG1=33. 4 ESTIMATED POP. OF ALERT BAY UNINCORPORATED MUNICIPALITY= ACTUAL TOTAL=574 FIGJJBE 4,3 SOINTULA 1971 CANADA CENSUS TOTAL POPULATION AGE % NO, (EACH X=5) G. ( 7.4) 50 •XXXXXXXXXX 5.000 (19.3) 130 • x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x 15.00 (15.6) 105 •XXXXXXXXxxxxxxxxxxxxx 25.00 (12.6) 85 •XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 35.00 (11.9) 80 •XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 45.00 ( 8.9) 60 •XXXXXXXXXXXX 55.00 (11.1) 75 •XXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 65.00 (11.1) 75 •XXXXXXXXXXXXXXX TOTAL3 =675 AVERAGE AGE-32.9 FIGURE 4.4 SOINTULA 1977 HOUSEHOLD SURVEY TOTAL POPULATION AGE 0. 5.000 15.00 25.00 35.00 45.00 55.00 65.00 (12. 1) (12.6) (16.5) (1-7.5) (11.2) ( 8.7) < 9.7) (11.6) TOTAL=412 TOTAL ESTIMATE AVERAGE AGE=33 NO. (EACH X=5) 50 +XXXXXXXXXX 52 VXXXXXXXXXX 68 +XXXXXXXXXXXXXX 72 •XXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 46 +XXXXXXXXX 36 •XXXXXXX 40 +XXXXXXXX 48 +XXXXXXXXXX D POPULATION=740 .2 74 FIGURE 4.5 SGINTULA 1961 CANADA CENSUS FEMALE POPULATION (EACH X=2) 0. 58 • XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 5.0000 47 +XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 10.000 33 •XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 15.000 28 +XXXXXXXXXXXXXX 20.000 29 •XXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 25,000 38 •XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 35.000 39 •XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 45.000 49 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 55.000 29 +XXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 65.000 9 •XXXXX 70.000 18 •XXXXXXXXX 85.000 1 +X IOTAL=377 FIGURE 4.6 SOINTULA 1961 CANADA CENSUS MALE POPULATION (EACH X=2) 0. 53 +XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 5.0000 35 •XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 10.000 33 +XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 15.000 23 • XXXXXXXXXXXXX 20,000 29 +XXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 25.000 49 •XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 35.000 39 •XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 45.000 61 •XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 55.000 43 +XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 65.000 14 *XXXXXXX 70. 000 22 +XXXXXXXXXXX TOTAL=401 FIGURE 4.7 SGINTULA 1961 CANADA CENSUS TOTAL POPULATION (EACH X=5) 0. . 117 + XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 5.0000 82 •XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 10.000 66 •XXXXXXXXXXXXX 15.000 51 •XXXXXXXXXX 20.000 58 •XXXXXXXXXXXX 25.000 87 •XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 35.000 78 • x x x x x x x x x x x x x x 45.000 110 •XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 55.000 72 •XXXXXXXXXXXX 65.000 23 •xxxxx 70.000 40 •xxxxxxxx TOTAL=778 ESTIMATED POP. OF ALEBT BAY UNICORPORATED MUNICIPALITY=100 ACTUAL TOTAL=678 75 FIGUBE 4.8 SOINTULA 1966 CANADA CENSUS FEMALE POPULATION (EACH X=2) 0. 41 •XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 5.0000 43 +XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 10.000 39 •XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 15.000 24 +XXXXXXXXXXXX 20.000 17 •XXXXXXXXX 25.000 37 + XXX XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 35.000 34 •XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 45.000 35 •XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 55.000 43 +XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 65.000 15 •XXXXXXXX 70.000 17 •XXXXXXXXX TGTAL=345 FIGURE 4.9 SOINTULA 1966 CANADA CENSUS MALE POPULATION (EACH X=2) 0. 30 •xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 5.0000 30 •xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 10.000 24 •XXXXXXXXXXXX 15.000 29 •XXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 20.000 15 •XXXXXXXX 25.000 38 •XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 35.000 38 •XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 45.000 33 •XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 55.000 49 •XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 65.000 17 •XXXXXXXXX 7 0.000 21 •XXXXXXXXXXX TOTAL=324 FIGURE 4.10 SOINTULA 1966 CANADA CENSUS TOTAL POPULATION (EACH X=5) 0. 71 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 5.0000 73 ^XXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 1G.000 63 +XXXXXXXXXXXXX 15.000 53 +XXXXXXXXXXXX 20.000 32 +XXXXXX 25.000 75 +XXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 35.000 72 +XXXXXXXXXXXXXX 45.000 68 +XXXXXXXXXXXXX 55.000 92 +XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 65,000 32 +XXXXXX 70.000 38 +XXXXXXXX TOTAL=669 ESTIMATED POPULATION OF ALERT BAY UNINCORPORATED MUNICIPALITY ACTUAL TOTAL=574 FIGDEE 4. 11 SOIHTULA 1971 CANADA CENSUS FEMALE POPULATION (EACH X=2) 0. 30 •XXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 5.0000 80 •XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 15.000 50 +XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 25.000 45 +XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 35.000 35 ^ XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 45.000 35 +XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 55.000 35 ^ XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 65.000 30 +XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX TOTAL=305 FIGURE 4.12 SOINTULA 1971 CANADA CENSUS HALE POPULATION (EACH X=2) 0. 25 +XXXXXXXXXXXXX 5.0000 50 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 15.000 55 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 25.000 40 •XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 35.000 45 xXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 45.000 25 XXXXXXXXXXXXXX 55.000 40 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 65.000 45 •XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX TOTAL=345 FIGURE 4.13 SGINTULA 1971 CANADA CENSUS TOTAL POPULATION (EACH X=5) 0. 50 XXXXXXXXXXX 5.0000 130 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 15.000 105 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 25.000 85 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 35.000 80 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 45.000 60 XXXXXXXXXXXXX 55.000 75 xXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 65.000 75 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX TOTAL=675 FIGUBE 4.1 4 SGINTULA 1977 HOUSEHOLD SURVEY RESULTS TOTAL ESTIMATED POPULATION=740 SAMPLE SIZE=55% (EACH X= 2) 0. 50 •XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 5.0000 36 •XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 10.000 16 +XXXXXXXX 15.000 29 •XXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 20.000 39 • XXX XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 25.000 40 •XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 30.000 32 •XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 35.000 31 •XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 40.000 15 •XXXXXXXX 45.000 15 •XXXXXXXX 50.000 21 •xxxxxxxxxxx 55.000 19 •XXXXXXXXXX 60.000 21 •XXXXXXXXXXX 65.000 15 •XXXXXXXX 70.000 17 •XXXXXXXXXX 75.000 9 •XXXXX 80.000 2 • X 85.000 5 • XXX TOTAL 412 FIGURE 4.15 VILLAGE OF ALERT BAY 1961 CANADA CENSUS TOTAL POPULATION (EACH X=5) 0. 132 •xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 5.0000 169 +XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 15.000 126 •XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXX 25.000 133 +XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 35.000 111 •XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 45.000 86 +XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 55.000 31 *XXXXXX 65.000 37 +XXXXXXX TOTAL=822 FIGURE 4. 16 VILLAGE OF ALERT BAY 1966 CANADA CENSUS TOTAL POPULATION (EACH X=5) 0. 116 •XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 5.0000 186 •xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 15.000 119 •xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 25.000 136 •xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 35.000 94 •XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 45.000 90 •XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 55.000 34 •XXXXXXX 65.000 20 • xxxx TOTAL=795 FIGURE 4,17 PORT MCNEILL 1971 CANADA CENSUS MALE POPULATION (EACH X=5) 0. 70 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 5.0000 85 •XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 15.000 90 •XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 25.000 100 •xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 35.000 70 +XXXXXXXXXXXXXX 45.000 40 •XXXXXXXX 55.000 30 +XXXXXX 65.000 10 • XX FIGURE 4.18 PORT MCNEILL 1971 CANADA CENSUS FEM ALE POPULATION (EACH X=5) 0. 60 •XXXXXXXXXXXX 5.0000 110 •XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 15.000 95 •XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 25.000 85 •XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 35.000 50 •xxxxxxxxxx 45.000 40 •XXXXXXXX 55.000 20 • XXXX 65.000 5 • X TOTAL=795 80 FIGURE 4.19 SOINTULA, TOHN CENTER ONLY, 1S77 HOUSEHOLD SURVEY (EACH X= 2) 0. 41 •XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 5.0000 33 •xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 10.000 13 •XXXXXXX 15.000 26 •XXXXXXXXXXXXX 20.000 37 •XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 25.000 33 •xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 30.000 16 •XXXXXXXX 35.000 21 •xxxxxxxxxxx 4 0.000 14 •XXXXXXX 45.000 14 •XXXXXXX 50.000 20 •XXXXXXXXXX 55.000 17 •XXXXXXXXX 6 0.000 19 •xxxxxxxxxx 65.000 14 •XXXXXXX 70.000 15 •XXXXXXXX 75.000 8 • XXXX 80.000 2 • X 85.000 4 • XX TOTAL 347 FIGURE 4.20 KALEVA R01D AND MITCHELL BAY 1S77 HOUSEHOLD SURVEY RESULTS (EACH X=1) 0. 9 •XXXXXXXXX 5.0000 3 •XXX 10.000 3 • XXX 15.000 3 • XXX 20.000 2 • XX 25.000 7 •XXXXXXX 30.000 16 •XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 35.000 10 •xxxxxxxxxx 4 0.000 1 • X 45.000 1 • X 50.000 1 • X 55.000 2 • XX 60.000 2 • XX 65.000 1 • X 70.000 2 • XX 75.000 1 •X 80.000 0 • 85.000 1 • X TOTAL 65 FIGUBE 4.21 RESIDENTIAL STABILITY LENGTH OF RESIDENCE FOR HOUSEHOLDS EFT-END HIST* NO. (EACH X= 1) 0. 14.6 21 •XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 5.0000 20.8 30 •XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 10.000 15.3 22 +XXXXXXXXXXX 15.000 6.3 9 •XXXXXXXXX 20.000 9.7 14 •XXXXXXXXXXXXX 25.000 11.8 17 •XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 30.000 4.9 7 •XX XX 35.000 3.5 5 •XXXX 40.000 .7 1 •XX 45.000 3.5 5 +XXXX 50.000 .7 1 •XX 55.000 2.1 3 •XXX 60.000 3.5 5 •xxxx 65.000 2.8 4 •XXX TOTAL 144 (INTERVAL WIDTH= 5.0000) FIGURE 4.22 RESIDENTIAL STABILITY LENGTH OF RESIDENCE FOR INDIVIDUALS , EFT-END HIST36 NO. , (EACH X= 3) 0. 24.5 101 •XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 5.0000 20.4 84 •X X XXXX XX XXXXXXX X XX XXX XXXXXX X 10.000 7.8 32 •XXXXXXXXXXX 15,000 6.1 25 •XXXXXXXXX 20.000 9.5 39 •xxxxxxxxxxxxx 25.000 14 . 3 59 •XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 30.000 2.7 11 •xxxx 35.000 2.9 12 •xxxx 40.000 1.0 4 •XX 45.0 00 2.9 12 •xxxx 50.000 1.0 4 • XX 55.000 2.2 9 •XXX 60.000 2.9 12 •xxxx 65.000 1.9 8 •XXX TOTAL 412 (INTERVAL BIDTH= 5.0000) 82 FIGURE 4.23 CATCH IN AREA #12 JOHNSTONE STRAITS 1951 + * <2) • * + * • * (5) * (6) • (7) + * (8) + * (9) • 1960 + * (61) + * (62) * (63) • * (64) * (65) + * (66) + * (67) + (68) + * *69) + * 1970 + (71) + * <72) • * (73) + (74) + (75) + 1976) + + _ — • + 1 « . . . + + 0. , 6. 0000 12.000 3.0000 9.0000 15.0 83 CHAPTER 5 THE ECONOMY OF SOIMTDLA In the preceeding chapter, population was the focus of investigation. The structure of the population and the changes which i t has undergone were delineated.,Hypotheses aimed at the i d e n t i f i c a t i o n of the p r i n c i p a l causal factors i n the demographic change were assessed. Trends i n age-specific mortality and n a t a l i t y i n the region, and altered age structure did not seem to be of s u f f i c i e n t magnitude to account for the observed population differences between census years. Bather the relocation of people was important i n explaining change i n the population s i z e over time. The s i g n i f i c a n t c o r r e l a t i o n of migration rate with lagged f i s h harvest i n the area, suggested an important economic ef f e c t on migration. Fishing i s the main source of employment and the employment rate i s of p a r t i c u l a r s i g n i f i c a n c e to migration decisions. The analysis therefore concentrates on the application of resource economic p r i n c i p l e s to the community's f i s h i n g enterprise. ; The central problem i s the a l l o c a t i o n of resources and the factor inputs, between alternative ends. The costs incurred and the revenues accruing to the several types of fishermen, i n the community, w i l l be investigated. Attention w i l l be focused on a comparison of e f f i c i e n c y between the types of gear currently employed. This problem i s relevent because the economy i s not 84 s t a t i c but has been undergoing i n t e n s i f i c a t i o n of c a p i t a l outlays, i n recent years. The a l l o c a t i v e e f f i c i e n c y of the current factor proportions were studied as a means of assessing the effects of these changes. The s o c i a l and i n s t i t u t i o n a l basis of the economy are the focus of the concluding sections. Marketing was analysed and for the labour component, attention was given to trade organisations, occupational mobility and the range of employment opportunities that are available on the island.. The r e t a i l sector and land use pattern w i l l be examined. The o v e r a l l framework in t h i s presentation of the economic l i f e of the the community i s to examine the choices i n production, d i s t r i b u t i o n and consumption that are basic to the s o c i a l system. 5.1 Introduction The wealth of i n d u s t r i a l society i s generated through three sectors of the economy - land, labour and c a p i t a l (Polanyi 1944). In c l a s s i c a l economics, land i s considered to be i n limited supply, and i n Malthus i s the c r i t i c a l factor r e s t r i c t i n g population growth. Sith fiicardo, the focus s h i f t e d to the process of bringing into production marginal lands. The concept of rent, i n a market system, was developed i n reference to the product of the land. Maximization of the rent i s the objective of the private owner of land. Renewable resources, are related to the theory of land, in that they are a natural endowment, c h a r a c t e r i s t i c a l l y heterogeneous over space. However, natural resources can be exhaustable and t h e i r temporal behaviour l i n k s them to the analysis of c a p i t a l . C a p i t a l i s any 85 good for which future planning i s a r e q u i s i t e . Natural resources can be regarded as y i e l d i n g quasi-rents and being a stock of natural c a p i t a l . -The basic economic analysis of f i s h e r i e s was f i r s t developed by Gordon {1954). The objective of maximized economic rent was put forward i n place of the c r i t e r i o n of maximum b i o l o g i c a l y i e l d . I t i s the benefit derived by society from resource extraction, which embues value, rather than b i o l o g i c a l productivity, i n i t s e l f . A contrast i s drawn between two conditions of the fishery -1) the open access, 2) the monopoly. Marginal analysis i s used in the formal model ( f i g . 5.1). Figure 5.1 Catch/effort curve for the fishery Revenue Effo r t The model i s based on the assumption of diminishing returns to e f f o r t , s p e c i f i c a l l y through the form of a l o g i s t i c curve defining the production of f i s h , i n biomass. The harvest weight multiplied by the market price yields the net d o l l a r revenue. Under the conditions of open access, the t o t a l e f f o r t 86 applied to the f i s h i n g i s unrestricted because fishermen may f r e e l y enter the industry. The ocean's b i o l o g i c a l resources are for the most part, not subject to tenure through private property. There i s no incentive for any one i n d i v i d u a l to r e f r a i n from harvesting stocks. The benefits from leaving f i s h for the future w i l l not accrue to the i n d i v i d u a l who r e f r a i n s from harvesting i n the present. The r e s u l t of the open access condition i s that f i s h i n g continues u n t i l i t s costs are equal to the returns. Gordon also included in the costs cf f i s h i n g , the opportunity costs which are the revenues foregone from employment in a l t e r n a t i v e occupations. In terms of the graphic analysis, the costs of open access conditions can be represented by the straight l i n e TC. Total costs r i s e in direct proportion to the e f f o r t applied.„At the point C, t o t a l costs equal t o t a l revenue.,Assuming a homogeneous f l e e t , the average returns per boat are egual to average costs. This point was termed the bionomic equilibrium. An open access to the f i s h stocks w i l l r e s u l t in t h i s s i t u a t i o n , as fishermen w i l l be drawn in t o the industry as long as they are able to earn the i r opportunity costs. They w i l l leave f i s h i n g i f t h e i r average revenues are less than that may be earned i n alternate employment. In Sointula, open access i s a predominant c h a r a c t e r i s t i c of the fishery. • Fishermen are generally independent operators sharing a common resource - salmon, herring and other marine species. Their aim i s to maximize t h e i r harvest each f i s h i n g t r i p . An i n d i v i d u a l w i l l not by himself decide to forego catch, as the future benefits w i l l accrue to other fishermen. 87 The management policy of "maximum sustained y i e l d " {point M) i s obtained by rai s i n g the cost curve. This i s often accomplished through r e s t r i c t i o n s on gear and area openings so that the costs of f i s h i n g are increased. A new equilibrium at the MSY results when the average costs and revenues are equated at a l e v e l of e f f o r t needed to achieve the stock size objective. The monopoly or sole owner s i t u a t i o n allows the attainment of maximum net revenue or rent. The maximum rent i s achieved because the sole owner i s able to control the application of fishing e f f o r t so that the marginal increment i s set equal to the marginal revenues returned. In f i g . 5.1, t h i s i s achieved at point A. The stock s i z e s for maximum rent i s greater than that for maximum y i e l d which i n turn i s greater than that for open access. More recent research (Clark and Honroe 1976, Clark 1976) has developed dynamic models through the application of optimal control theory. Consideration of the temporal factor i n the adjustment of stock sizes has shown that the i n e q u a l i t i e s described above, between the stock sizes under the three d i f f e r e n t objectives, may not always hold. In the B.C. fi s h e r y , Pearse (1972) has addressed the d i s t r i b u t i o n a l e f f e c t s of the policy of maximization of rent through licence l i m i t a t i o n . The f u l l economic potential of the fishery i s r e a l i z e d through maximizing the difference between revenue and costs. Cost factors are composed of the costs of fi s h i n g e f f o r t and the opportunity costs of fishermen. As i s o l a t i o n and s o c i o - c u l t u r a l and eductional b a r r i e r s ( S i n c l a i r and Boland 1970) r e s t r i c t occupational mobility i n low-income groups, t h e i r opportunity costs may be r e l a t i v e l y low. The 88 elimination of smaller vessels, as has occurred i n the licence l i m i t a t i o n program, r e s u l t s in the unemployment of immobile, low income fishermen. As a r e s u l t , costs of the fishery to society as a whole, may r i s e . The s p e c i f i c study area i s but a regional locale of a coastal e c o l o g i c a l and economic system. Sointula fishermen catch only a small portion of the t o t a l B.C. catch. Restrictions on their f i s h i n g would not have a sizeable effect on stock s i z e s , except about cert a i n l o c a l streams and f i s h i n g grounds.„ Shile the o v e r a l l management of the resource i s vested with the federal government, f i s h e r i e s policy i s amenable to the influence of the v e r t i c a l l y integrated processing companies, union and Native organisations, as well as, regionally based pressure groups { C.L.Smith 1977). Each gear type represents an interest group lobbying for a greater share of the catch. Non-commercial user groups - Indian food and recreational f i s h e r i e s - are of increasing s i g n i f i c a n c e i n the Sointula area. The salmon, i s the most important species and i s an andrcmadous f i s h , that t r a v e l s across wide reaches of the ocean. Regional i n t e r e s t s campaign for appropriation of i t s stocks. For example, up-coast fishermen set themselves against the Vancouver based f l e e t . Between Canada, and the U.S.A., a b i l a t e r a l agreement governs the d i v i s i o n of the Eraser rive r salmon. This leads to a problem of "interception" and the aim of catching the f i s h before they enter treaty waters. Offshore i n t e r n a t i o n a l f i s h i n g , u n t i l the recent 200 mile l i m i t , operated outside the j u r i s d i c t i o n and control of Canadian management. The freshwater phase of salmon, i s subject to the environmental e x t e r n a l i t i e s 89 of hydroelectric power generation, and po l l u t i o n from urban,agricultural and for e s t industry sources. The f i s h e r i e s resource i s therefore, exposed to a m u l t i p l i c i t y of users with d i f f e r e n t objectives. ,• The fishing industry of Sointula i s composed of small operators harvesting a common property resource. Analysis predicts that open access to the resource r e s u l t s i n the free entry of in d i v i d u a l s so that no incomes beyond the opportunity costs are earned. Though the open access character was important to understanding Sointula, several elements not present i n the Gordon model existed. These were the occurance of gear and areal regulations, economic regulation, and corporate organization. Attitudes of fishermen indicated the presence of two contradictory positions. One was the expression of the competitive i n d i v i d u a l i s t - "The fishermen would harvest the stocks to extinction, i f he could". Another viewpoint was present i n the community, that took the perspective of society -"The fisherman i s the only one who r e a l l y cares about conservation". Samuelson (1974:8) argues that i f the individuals i n a common property si t u a t i o n .equalised marginal productivities i n the al l o c a t i o n of t h e i r e f f o r t , then the s o c i a l optimum of maximized rent may be achieved. A difference e x i s t s in the preferences expressed through a s o c i a l versus an i n d i v i d u a l u t i l i t y function. In the former, manifest preferences take into account the behaviour of others as structured by the society. In Sointula, however, organisational forms expressing s o c i a l i nterests - planning committees, cooperatives and trade unions -90 may be of limited importance compared to the market factors in f i s h and vessel price, investment c a p i t a l and employment. The example of Japan, however, points to t h e i r potential s i g n i f i c a n c e . In the Japanese inshore fishery, the resource management unit and the regional fishermen's cooperative are integrated (Asada 1976). This i s a method of vesting property rights i n marine resources with an organizational form representing l o c a l i n t e r e s t s . At the same time, c e n t r a l governmental authority i s reguired to r e s t r i c t the access to the marine stocks, to l o c a l residents. In addition to s p a t i a l variables, consideration of temporal factors must also be introduced into f i e l d observations. Time enters into the problem of renewable resource use i n a number of ways. The b i o l o g i c a l resource i t s e l f grows only at a f i n i t e rate so that increases i n stock s i z e can only be obtained with a passage of time. On the side of the means of harvesting the resource - eguipment and vessels - these take time to be introduced into a f i s h e r y . They take time to design and b u i l d , and the savings to finance t h e i r purchase takes time to accumulate. The decision to buy or to s e l l a vessel depends on the expectations of future catches and prices and attitudes toward the r i s k involved. Credit, which plays an important role in the financing of f i s h i n g , depends on the conditions of the industry, the production record of i n d i v i d u a l s and government programs of financing investment and of taxation. The disccunt rate i s one index that may be used to express the preference for immediate over deferred gains., I t i s the percentage that must be added for the foregoing of the use of 91 c a p i t a l for a year. The choice of an appropriate rate for p a r t i c u l a r circumstances i s a d i f f i c u l t matter, p a r t i c u l a r l y f o r public investment where there are many alternate use of funds. Investment decisions under variable resource abundance and uncertainty involve the problem of estimation of future stocks. Speculation on future gain may be an important aspect of temporal v a r i a b i l i t y . In general, there i s no concensus on the importance of speculation on future gains. On the one hand, i t may be d e s t a b i l i z i n g by a r t i f i c i a l l y creating buying or s e l l i n g panics, and on the other, futures markets, as ex i s t for a g r i c u l t u r a l products, communicate knowledge about the future of the actors i n the market system (Samuelson and Scott 1974). Uncertainty i s a c h a r a c t e r i s t i c feature of f i s h i n g . It i s involved not only i n the fact that the f i s h are only considered caught only once they are on deck, but from a lack of p r e d i c t a b i l i t y of the abundance of the f i s h over time. Lack of information on factors such as ocean s u r v i v a l , accurate long time series and inaccuracies i n the measurement of actual f i s h i n g e f f o r t or harvest, mitigate against the accuracy of forecasts. There i s no organised futures market i n f i s h , but uncertainty i s registered i n the economic system of the f i s h e r y through the a v a i l a b i l i t y to the i n d i v i d u a l of c r e d i t , the i n t e r e s t rates, insurance rates, as well as, the markets for assets and licences. Credit i s available through i n s t i t u t i o n a l sources - banks and large companies - with the support of government assistance program. The record of productivity of an i n d i v i d u a l skipper i s c l o s e l y kept and i s a prime f a c t o r i n the a b i l i t y of a fisherman to become a vessel owner.-Insurance for 92 vessels i n Sointula, i s available at two basic rates. To the long term fisherman, judged to be good insurance r i s k s , a Cooperative Insurance Co. rate of 3-4$ i s a v a i l a b l e , while those who are newcomers or with a poor safety record, must take a commercial rate of 6% of the vessel value per year. Companies with large f l e e t s may also obtain s p e c i a l rates. Multiple species are harvested by a l l fishermen i n Sointula. This can considerably complicate theory (see Clark 1976). Basic to ecology, i s the theory of competition and predation between species. Considering the fisherman as a form of predator, the effect of predation on two competing species can variously lead to joint s u r v i v a l , or e x t i n c t i o n of one or both species (Bazykin 1974). Non-selective multispecies f i s h i n g can lead to the e x t i n c t i o n of one or more species (Larkin 1S66). The technological conversion of f i s h i n g f o r multispecies marine resources through combination gear boats, has been mentioned. The harvesting of two types of f i s h e r i e s can also create linkages between the separate stocks, through inter a c t i n g prices. Data showing t h i s price e f f e c t i n the North Island fishery w i l l be presented below, F i n a l l y , many fishermen of Sointula l i k e most other inshore fishermen, engage i n other occupations i n the off-season. Employment i n the f o r e s t industries i s an important a l t e r n a t i v e regional opportunity. Gordon (1954) broadened the scope of his a n a l y s i s , drawing on inference fom anthropological and ecological perspectives. Systems of resource tenure i n non-western s o c i e t i e s are referred to and recent studies i n the Canadian a r c t i c and boreal 2 o n e s (Tanner 1972) have pointed to great v a r i a b i l i t y i n these tenure 93 systems and i n resource use. An ecological anthropology was envisioned by Gordon, i n which the dynamics of human population, resource u t i l i z a t i o n and d i s t r i b u t i o n and abundance were conceptually integrated. 5.2 The Costs and Revenues of Fishing 5.2.1 Aim The aim of t h i s section i s to determine the factors c o n t r o l l i n g the entry and exit of vessels and equipment into the Sointula f i s h e r y and af f e c t i n g the involvement of ind i v i d u a l s with the industry. Such a perspective i s basic to the study of the dynamics and response to change of the l o c a l economy./ Since 1966, a government program of licence l i m i t a t i o n , has been i n s t i t u t e d with the stated objective of reducing the numbers of participants i n the B.C. fishery. The basis for the design of t h i s policy was l a i d i n the concept of bioncmic equilibrium ( S i n c l a i r 1960). In order, to maximize the economic "rent" from the resource, open access to p a r t i c i p a t i o n had to be r e s t r i c t e d . An assessment of the f l e e t composition i n Sointula r e s u l t i n g from this policy, w i l l be made i n terms of economic e f f i c i e n c i e s , calculated from the costs and revenues. 5.2.2 Method The main method used for c o l l e c t i n g information was interviews with fishermen. Half of owners and operators of vessels in Sointula were contacted. The interviews lasted between one-half and two hours and i n a number of instances 94 there was an opportunity for repeat interviews. The interviews were conducted in an informal manner on the docks. The majority of them were carr i e d out in the period Hay 18 - June 30,1977, which was before the season opening for salmon. Men were l i k e l y to be on the docks doing maintenance and repair work on their boats. No conscious selection of individuals or boats was made; generally the f i r s t person along the dock who had not been previously interviewed, was approached. Though randomization procedures were not followed, no systmatic bias was introduced because of i n a c t i v i t y of fishermen. A l l f u l l time fishermen were preparing f o r the opening of the salmon harvest at the time of the interviews. The interviewer introduced himself and described the purpose cf his interviews as being a part of a study of commercial f i s h i n g i n Sointula. None of the i n d i v i d u a l s approached refused to be interviewed.,As the study progressed, people were occassionally introduced to the interviewer "There's a guy you should talk to ". Sometimes a group of men would gather around the boat where the interview was being conducted. In t h i s case, i t was easy to later turn to one of the bystanders and ask whether he would mind taking part i n the study.. The i n i t i a l part of the interview consisted of a standard set questions: r e g i s t r a t i o n number, current value of boat, separate licence value, operating costs. Questions on a number of related points were then asked:changes i n the value of the boat and the licence, changes i n the cost of equipment, repairs and f u e l , when the boat was purchased, the e f f e c t of new 95 technology and f i s h i n g methods, repair services, geographic areas fished, years of experience as a fisherman. Questions were directed to probe attitudes to the e f f e c t s of a range dif f e r e n t contingencies i n f i s h stocks and on the solvency of the f i s h i n g operation. Inguiries were made concerning the expectations of future prices and stocks. H i s t o r i c a l comparison between f i s h i n g i n the past and present was made by those with long experience as fishermen. Besides the fishermen, additional information was colle c t e d from the following persons involved i n the l o c a l industry: managers of the four processing plants represented i n the area, l o c a l insurance assesor, head of the Regional Fisheries o f f i c e , head of the l o c a l branch of the Native Brotherhood, o f f i c e r s of the union l o c a l , chief of the Nimpkish Indian band, several r e t i r e d fishermen,former member of the Board of Trade, members of the Malcolm Island planning committee. Following McCall (1969), who stresses the importance of establishing a consistent i d e n t i t y i n the community, great care was taken to give the same explanation of the study to each fisherman interviewed. Two basic facts were communicated as an explanation of the study: 1) This was a study of commercial fishing i n Sointula; 2) The researcher was from U.B.C. and the information would be kept c o n f i d e n t i a l . Sometimes a t h i r d fact was added: 3) I t was for the author's Ph.D. th e s i s . The r e s u l t s of t h i s care paid o f f i n a few weeks, when the author was introduced, i n an informal context, to the crew of a 96 boat, by the skipper. Though he was unfamiliar with the general role of a researcher, he was able to c o r r e c t l y explain his presence by the same reasons given weeks before.,-A confusion i n id e n t i t y would be d i f f i c u l t to correct and would i n t e r f e r e with the rapport that had been created. , For the recording of information a pocket notebook and pen was used exclusively. Tape recorders, i t was f e l t would be too drastic an intrusion and the t r a n s c r i p t i o n of recordings too time consuming., The fishing community of Sointula was open to and had an o v e r a l l positive attitude toward serious research and t h i s contributed to the ease of communication. By contrast,in nearby Alert Bay, where r a c i a l h o s t i l i t i e s made suspicion more strongly f e l t , interviews attempted on the same subjects were less successful. Sointula does not have a municipal government so that there were not any bodies representing the whole community, that could be contacted at the i n i t i a t i o n of the study. The only introduction to indiv i d u a l s i n the community was through the U.F.A.8.U. (United Fishermens and A l l i e d Sorkers Union) head o f f i c e i n Vancouver. Reference to two people in the union l o c a l were given and these were contacted at t h e i r homes i n Sointula. They were helpful in the planning of the beginning of the f i e l d study, as well as, i n learning the point of view of an important organisation i n the community. The basic advice - to go down to the breakwater and "talk to the guys" - was followed. The researcher, however, made i t clear that he was not associated with the union or with government. That an i n v i t a t i o n was l a t e r offered from a seine boat owner to go f i s h i n g , was one 97 in d i c a t i o n of the maintenance of a non-partisan position. The way i n which the f i e l d study was approached was t o try and learn as much as possible about the way of l i f e of the Malcolm Islanders. The interviews required the qatherinq of a standard set of data. But in writinq up the observations at night, further questions or ambiguities would appear. The following day's interviews would include an attempt to f i n d answers to these. In t h i s way and by following up opportunities that presented themselves, a maximum amount of information was gathered and gradually a picture of the community, i t s inhabitants and t h e i r l i v e s , was b u i l t up. 5.2.3 Observations Information on t h i r t y - s i x f i s h i n g vessels i n Sointula i n l i s t e d i n appendix 4 and summarized i n table 5.1. The descriptive measures are shown for each gear type i n tables 5.3-5.6. The number of observations, the range, mean and standard deviations are recorded for each variable. There are f i f t e e n primary variables, a complete set of observations i s available for two dozen vessels. Information on f i v e of the vessels i s only cursory and includes data on only f i v e of the variables. Two vessel owners from a l e r t Bay were interviewed, one Euro-Canadian and one Indian. This are l i s t e d separately as observations 37 and 38 (table 5.2). The t o t a l number of vessels xn Sointula i s now approximately seventy. Thus interviews were conducted on one half of the vessels in the f l e e t . Further information gathered from supplementary sources, Dept. of Fi s h e r i e s , academic studies and fishermen's unions were drawn on 98 i n the interpretation of the data. The f i r s t variable (CF. V .) i s a code number f o r the vessel licence. The second (LENGTH) i s the registered length of the vessel i n feet. The t h i r d (TON) i s the registered tonnage. The fourth (CURRENT $) i s the current market value including licence, a l l monetary figures are i n thousands of d o l l a r s . In a number of cases, the answers that provided t h i s information, were able to to be cross-checked with other fisherman and good agreement usually found. The s i x t h variable (PaST $) i s the value of the boat at the time of purchase. I t i s derived from answers to the question - "How has the value of the boat changed in the past? » Besides the value at the time of purchase, information on the values of vessels as far back as the 1920*s was col l e c t e d . The seventh variable i s the number of years ago that the vessel was purchased. The eigth variable i s the market value of the licence per ton . The figures given widely agreed with the bank mananger's current assessment of $2000/ton and any figures widely divergent were cross-checked. The reasons for variation are discussed below along with information on the temporal variation. The nineth variable i s the value of eguipment on the boat. This includes e l e c t r o n i c s , such as radar, depth sounder, radios, sonar, g i l l or seine nets, t r o l l i n g gear and halibut skates. The range of eguipment i s described more f u l l y below. Four variables (#10-13) describe the operating costs./These f e l l into one of three categories: repairs and maintenance <vafi 10), replacement of equipment (VaR 11), and f u e l (VAR 12). Total costs ( VaR 13) were either calculated from the sum of the 99 previous three costs or were given as a t o t a l estimated annual expense. In three cases, only one of the three cost components was given. Variable 14 i s age and i s included i n a l l cases. r Variable 15 i s income and i s l i s t e d for 18 cases. Information on personal income was d i f f i c u l t to obtain without v i o l a t i n g the rapport of the interview. However, i n about half the cases l i s t e d , personal incomes were volunteered. In two other cases, personal income was inferred from information on gross catch and expenses. Personal information on two other individuals was made available by r e l i a b l e sources, i n the community. The remaining information on incomes was derived from questioning on the "break-even point" at which revenue and costs matched. The expression of personal attitudes such as "I just wanted to make enough to l i v e on" and concurrent observations of l i f e s t y l e provided further information. However for f i f t y percent of the cases, there i s no estimate of net income. Gross catch i s kept i n Fisheries Dept. records, by vessel c. F.V.#, for each year., These are compiled from company s l i p s . However t h i s information was not made ava i l a b l e . , The remaining variables are derived from the f i f t e e n variable data base. Variable 16 i s the rate of appreciation calculated from |VAR 5 - VAB 6/ VAR 7). Variable 17 and 18 are t o t a l annual cost and equipment cost estimates. By running a simple l i n e a r regression of t o t a l costs on each of the components, the assumption being that each i s a constant fr a c t i o n of the t o t a l , a further three estimates cf t o t a l costs were obtained. Variable 17 i s the augmented t o t a l annual cost 100 data including the estimates. A s i m i l a r estimation procedure was carried out by regressing eguipment on current vessel value. , Variable 18 i s the augmented eguipment costs including the estimates. Variable 19 i s t o t a l current value, the sum of the vessel value, with licence {VAR 5) and the eguipment value (VAR 18). Variable 20 i s the annual c a p i t a l costs. This i s the annual expense cf i n t e r e s t and repayments on loans, or the amortised cost of the vessel, This was estimated for each vessel on the basis of information provided by informants on the current financing of the purchase of vessels. The average time for repayment of the debt incurred as a r e s u l t of the purchase of a vessel was estimated at f i v e years, by the bank, manager. . Interviews with fishermen suggested that there was a considerable variation. One g i l l n e t t e r said that he paid off his f i r s t boat i n one and a half years i n 1969-70. Another seine boat owner, documented i n d e t a i l that the size of his debt after f i v e years after purchase was almost the same because of repairs and replacements. However no owners of ten years or more, reported debt on an o r i g i n a l purchase. In order to amortise the value of the vessels a simple and uniform procedure, based on f i e l d information, was applied. This was to assume that the annual costs of i n t e r e s t and repayment of debt, was such that f u l l repayment was made i n seven years at a rate of twenty percent of purchase value per year. Boats older than seven years were assumed to incure no c a p i t a l expenses. The sum of the t o t a l operating costs and c a p i t a l costs {VAR17 and VAR 21) i s variable 22, the t o t a l annual costs. Variable 23 i s the f i n a n c i a l 101 e f f i c i e n c y defined as the r a t i o of the current net income to the t o t a l annual costs. The t o t a l composition of vessels i n the Sointula f l e e t , i n June 1977, i s shown i n table 5.7, The complete data base i s type g i l l n e t or gn/halibut combination t r o l l seine number 20 30 4 15 Table 5,7 Number of Boats Table 5.8 Sample Size type no. Sampled % sampled g i l l n e t 7 35 combination 13 43 t r o l l 3 75 seine 13 86 t o t a l 36 l i s t e d i n Appendix 4. A summary description i s presented i n Tables 5.1-5.2. The descriptive measures are broken down f o r each gear type i n tables 5.3-5.6. The number of observations per variable, the range, means and standard deviation are recorded in the tables. Histograms for the variables - length, tonnage, current vessel value, annual operating costs, age of owner and income are shown i n figures 5.2 - 5.5 (at the end of the chapter). The histograms show the d i s t r i b u t i o n of these six variables, f i r s t 102 for the aggregate f l e e t and then broken down by gear type. Variables for boat length, tonnage and value showed a skewed d i s t r i b u t i o n with many small,inexpensive and few large, high price boats. Capsule descriptions of the f l e e t and gear types conclude t h i s section on observations. The type of vessel i s a categorical variable: 1) g i l l n e t t e r s - GN; 2) combination - C; 3) t r o l l e r - T; 4) seiner - S. , Turning f i r s t to the g i l l n e t t e r s , the average length of g i l l n e t t e r s i s 33.6 feet with a r e l a t i v e l y small variation of 32-35 feet, i n the Sointula f l e e t . The average tonnage i s 5.79 and the market value averaged $27,714. The licence value was reported as $2000 for a l l coats. Eguipment on the g i l l n e t t e r s averaged $8,850 i n value. Mean annual costs are $2,000 for repairs and $1,500 for f u e l . Heplacement costs of $6,433 on average were reported, by three of the seven g i l l n e t boat owners. The figure f o r replacement includes purchase of a g i l l n e t s of which six to eight (at a current cost of $1,500 to $2,000 apiece) may be used on one boat. The price of nets has been rapidly increasing i n recent years. The t o t a l (unaugmented) costs are $6,500. The average age of a g i l l n e t t e r i s 32.6 years and the mean net income i s $9,000. The combination vessel has an average length 37 feet and 7.6 tons. The current market value i s $72,000. The li c e n c e was valued at $2,250 per ton, eguipment on the boat amounted to $16,000. Annual repair costs were $7,500 and the f u e l b i l l was $2,037. Four fishermen reported replacement costs averaging $6,900. Total annual costs came to $12,957. /The mean age of the fisherman was 38 years and earnings averaged $15,289., 103 For the t r o l l e r s , with a sample size of three, the average length was 43*and average capacity was twelve tons. Current value was set at $86,667. Thirty years was the average length of ownership of the Sointula t r o l l e r s . . Repairs were $4,000 on average and the cost of fuel was $1,200. Total annual costs averaged $15,400. The owners averaged f i f t y - s i x years of age and they earned an income averaging $15,000. Seiners i n Sointula average 53.2* and 21.4 registered tons. The r e g i s t r a t i o n of tonnage i n seine boasts 13 tons and over, i s done by the steamship inspection, and does not r e f l e c t changes in boat design. Hewer seine boats are b u i l t broader so as to have a larger hold capacity per length, than was the case for older ones. Yet they are registered as having a lower tonnage because of the way i n which tonnage i s measured. This also means means that the t o t a l l i c e n c i n g costs of a seine vessel i s lowered because l i c e n c i n g i s based on the amount of registered tonnage. The average per ton licence value for seiners i s $2,120 and the average length of ownership i s 10.8 years, at which time the vessels averaged $96,500 i n value. Equipment amounts to $23,429, repairs and replacement to $5,750 and f u e l to $4,071. Repair and replacement costs were obtained from 6 of the 13 seiners interviewed and averaged $19,633. The incomes of seine boat owners averaged $25,000 and the average age was forty-one years. The range of ages was from twenty-three to f i f t y - f i v e ; at least two of the seine skippers i n Sointula are i n t h e i r early 20 »s. 5.2.4 Analysis and Conclusions 104 T-tests for differences between gear types, for variables 1-15 were carried out. The re s u l t s are summarized i n table 5.9. In general, s i g n i f i c a n t differences occurred for physical dimensions and value. A simple l i n e a r regression was run with Table 5.9 T-tests for differences between vessels variables that are s i g n i f i c a n t l y d i f f e r e n t between the s p e c i f i e d gear types Gear type S i g n i f i c a n t variables GH/C length,currents,eguipmentaug,tot$ GN/T length,ton,currents,yearsago, age GN/S length,ton,currents,equipment,replacement,totcosts C/T length,ton,yearsago,age C/S length,ton,currents,equipment S/T length,ton,currents,yearsago,age. income as the dependent variable and age as the independent variable. The E 2 was .07, not s i g n i f i c a n t at .05. The analyses of Hsu (1976) suggest that income begins to f a l l off a f t e r the age cf fo r t y , for fishermen in B.C. Multiple stepwise forward and backward regression were run with income as the dependent variable and length, ten and currents as the independent variables. In both the forward and backward cases,length, ton and currents were s i g n i f i c a n t explanatory variables., Stepwise discriminant analysis was c a r r i e d out on the independent variables,on the data base between gear types. Length, ton and currents were the best discriminating variables. This meant that the categorical variable, boat type, could be predicted by the the i n t e r v a l scaled variables of the physical dimensions of the boat and by income., 105 Three hypotheses on the economic ef f i c i e n c y of the r a t i o of net revenue/ c a p i t a l costs and operating expenses for the Sointula f l e e t w i l l be put forth. The f i r s t i s that the larger, c a p i t a l intensive seiners are more e f f i c i e n t than the labour intensive small boats. The assumption i s that the improvement i n catch capacity through technological change, generates a proportionally greater revenue for the boats currently i n the Sointula f l e e t . The second hypothesis i s that e f f i c i e n c i e s are egual beween gear types., This would be achieved under a free market i n the factors of production. The t h i r d hypothesis i s that smaller, low cost vessels have a greater e f f i c i e n c y than c a p i t a l intensive ones. Cost factors i n f i s h i n g are composed of the opportunity and production costs. Pearse (1972:193) suggests that smaller vessels not only e n t a i l lower opportunity costs for t h e i r fishermen, but may include vessels with higher output per d o l l a r value. To assess the v a l i d i t y of these hypotheses s t a t i s t i c a l tests for the multiple comparison of mean e f f i c i e n c i e s for gear types were c a r r i e d out., The r a t i o of the income/total annual costs was measured as an indicator of the e f f i c i e n c y of the four classes of vessels, with the r e s u l t s given i n table 5.10. Five f i n a n c i a l r a t i o s , defined i n table 5.11, were calculated. The f i r s t two were the net returns to the boat divided by the t o t a l annual costs and by the operating costs alone, respectively. The second pair of f i n a n c i a l r a t i o s was the income per owner, divided by t o t a l annual costs and by operating costs, respectively. The f i f t h index was the r a t i o of the returns to invested c a p i t a l divided by the t o t a l annual costs. 106 Table 5.10 Ef f i c i e n c y Eatios gn c t • s e f f 1.011 1. 177 ,818 .903 eff2 1. 426 1.976 .818 7.452 eff3 1.011 1. 177 .682 .416 eff4 1.426 1.S84 .682 eff5 .221 .562 .363 .327 Table 5.11 Definition of E f f i c i e n c i e s e f f = net income per boat/total annual costs e f f 2 = net income per boat/operating costs ef f3 = net income per owner/total annual costs eff4 = net income per owner/operating costs eff5 = returns to c a p i t a l invested/total annual costs In order to understand the way i n which the returns to c a p i t a l and to labour were decomposed, the t r a d i t i o n a l share system of the f i s h e r y needs to be described. The returns accruing to c a p i t a l investment i s egual to; net revenue -returns to labour. For the seine boats, the d i v i s i o n of the catch between the owner, the captain and the crew, i s dictated by a fixed share system. The basic d i v i s i o n i s that 7/TTths of the catch minus f u e l costs, are apportioned to the crew. 4/11ths accrue to the owner of the boat and the net. This d i v i s i o n has i t s origins i n the time when there were seven man crews and the boats were l e s s mechanized. Today, most crews have f i v e man crew 107 and therefore 1/5 of the 7/11ths goes to each crew member. Because the cost of an investment in a seine boat has ri s e n , a further payment i s made today by the processing company, d i r e c t l y to the owner. This payment i s made over and above the negotiated price of the f i s h and currently amounts to t h i r t y percent of the price of salmon. For the owner who i s also the skipper, one of the f i v e crew shares i s added to his apportionment. The share d i v i s i o n for the skipper who i s not an owner i s more complicated.„He receives one crew share of 1/5 x 7/11, plus a t r a d i t i o n a l payment of 1/8 x 1/11 from the crew share, plus 1/8 x 4/11 from the owner 1s share. In computing the returns to c a p i t a l , for the seine boats, the owner-operators income must be subtracted by the amount that would accrue to the skipper i n return for his labour. For the single man, owner-operated boats of the combination and g i l l n e t types, the returns to the owner's labour cannot be calculated d i r e c t l y . An estimate of the returns to labour may be made from the rate paid i n the alternative employment., k base rate i s taken as the average share paid to crew members of seine boats. The re s u l t i n g returns to c a p i t a l for each gear type are shown i n table 5.10 as e f f 5 . The results of the comparison of the f i n a n c i a l returns to the d i f f e r i n g gear types shows that the e f f i c i e n c i e s appear highest for combination vessels and lowest f o r seiners and t r o l l e r s f o r e f f and e f f 3 , where the servicing and repayment of debt i s included in costs. With annual costs calculated from operating expenses alone (eff2 and e f f 4 ) , seiners appear highest. The returns to c a p i t a l do not d i f f e r greatly, though 108 combination vessels show the highest returns/costs r a t i o . F a i r -wise t-tests were carried out for a l l gear types, for the the e f f i c i e n c y variables numbered 23-27 ( e f f , e f f 2 , e f f 3 , e f f 4 , e f f 5 ) . S i g n i f i c a n t differences between seiners and g i l l n e t t e s at p=.05 occurred for variables 24 and 26 which measured e f f i c i e n c y without c a p i t a l costs. One-tailed t-tests were also s i g n i f i c a n t suggesting that seiners had a higher e f f i c i e n c y r a t i o than g i l l n e t t e r s or combination boats. The n u l l hypothesis of eguality between means i s however, biased by multiple comparisons. In order to eliminate the bias, the Scheffe test was carried out f o r variables 23-27 (Cooley and lohnes 1972}. No s i g n i f i c a n t differences e x i s t between gear types for variables 23, 25 and 27, For variable 24 (eff2), the mean for seiners i s s i g n i f i c a n t l y d i f f e r e n t (p<.05) than that for g i l l n e t t e r s or combination vessels, r e f l e c t i n g the higher catch capacity, per unit of operating expense for seiners. The r e l a t i o n s h i p between the e f f i c i e n c y measure used here and that employed i n some macro-level f i s h i n g surveys (Bilson 1971, Smith 1977) i s a simple one. ;Financial e f f i c i e n c y i s used i n the sense that i s most relevent to the investment decisions of the i n d i v i d u a l fisherman. This i s the r a t i o ; annual net revenue/costs. Costs are taken to be the sum of the amortised value and the operating expenses. The other measurement that has been used i s the r a t i o ; catch/vessel value. The relationship between the two measures can be seen from the r e l a t i o n annual net revenue = gross revenue - costs Since, EFF = net revenue/costs then EFF = gross revenue/costs - 1 109 or, gross revenue/costs = EFF • 1. The costs are proportional to vessel value, age and debt. A direct comparison with other survey e f f i c i e n c i e s can be made by u t i l i s i n g the income and vessel values i n the data base. Hilscn (1971:tables 5 and 17) l i s t s net revenues/vessel values by gear type, f o r the B.C. f l e e t i n 1970. Mitchell (1977) and Hunter (1971 stable 4.12) l i s t s an e f f i c i e n c y c r i t e r i o n of average return on c a p i t a l : gross returns/vessel value. These two measures and corresponding figures computed f o r Sointula are shown i n table 5.12 below. Given the year to year variation i n Table 5.12 Comparison of E f f i c i e n c y Measures for the B.C. and Sointula f l e e t gn c t s Net revenues/vessel value: Hilscn (1971) .279 .270 .233 .198 Sointula (1977) .32 .20 .12 .17 Gross revenue/vessel value: Mitchell (1977) .592 .466 .716."60 (5 year average 1970-74) Sointula (1977) .66 .52 .51 .37 catch and regional differences i n the f l e e t composition (Wilson 1971: report 2), the Sointula data seems i n l i n e with that of the B.C. f l e e t . The conclusion to be drawn from the Scheffe tests i s that 110 hypothesis two - equal e f f i c i e n c y between gear types - i s supported. The high sample variances obtained are notable. Though a random 50$ sample was taken, the small community f l e e t size along with o v e r a l l v a r i a b i l i t y i n gear and vessel types may have resulted i n r e l a t i v e l y large sample variations. Combination vessels i n p a r t i c u l a r , with many permutations of gear and h u l l s , generated high v a r i a b i l t y . The s i g n i f i c a n t l y higher per boat and per owner gross returns to seiners r e f l e c t i t s high catch capacity. G i l l n e t t e r s have r e l a t i v e l y high operating expenses due to the generally older vessels present, i n comparison with the newer expanding seine f l e e t , Considering the high price of new seine boats and the debt loads incurred, t h e i r net e f f i c i e n c y does not at present appear to be better than that of the less c a p i t a l intensive vessels. Their high catching power i s necessary to j u s t i f y the r i s k involved i n the large c a p i t a l investment. Interviewees emphasized the high debt load incurred in the f i r s t years of ownership of a seiner, lending further credence to the importance of c a p i t a l costs i n determining the economic e f f i c i e n c y of seining,, The comparison of f i n a n c i a l r a t i o s of returns to investment between gear types was subject to the confounding e f f e c t of changes i n the a l l o c a t i o n of catch by the f i s h e r i e s management agency. The Fisheries Dept. may re-adjust a l l o c a t i o n s between gear types between years i n response to pressure by gear-s p e c i f i c organizations (Pearse 1972). Examination of the percentage catch between types of vessels, for the years 1966-1976 (Hsu 1976), shows a variable yearly f l u c t u a t i o n i n the proportional a l l o c a t i o n , about a slow trend i n mean value. The 111 trend in alloc a t i o n s i s towards an increasing proportion of the harvest taken by seiners and a lesser amount harvested by g i l l n e t t e r s . The number of seiners i n the B.C. f l e e t as well as i n Sointula i s increasing. In the study year 1977, three new seine boats were introduced i n Sointula. Of the currently sixteen seiners i n the f l e e t , about one-half had been acquired in the l a s t f i v e years. Average t o t a l cost of seine boat and eguipment i s $221,370., The most expensive i s $325,000, an aluminum hulled, company boat. In the f a l l a new seine boat i s to be delivered to the owner i n Sointula, at a cost of $240,000. Seines are financed primarily through loans. The f i r s t loan of $50,000 i s made through the government assistance program and a further financing of $150,000 may be acquired from the bank or with a processinq company takinq a second mortagage. Average operating costs of seine boats cannot be said to be higher s t a t i s t i c a l l y than for g i l l n e t t e r s , from the data. , This i s a re s u l t of the lower repair and replacement costs i n the r e l a t i v e l y newer seiners. A sizeable proportion of the GN f l e e t i s made up of cider boats b u i l t i n the late 1940's, although the age of skippers tends to be younger. Hew gi l l n e t - t y p e boats are now being b u i l t with the combination f o r t r o l l i n g . , Gear regulation also l i m i t s the e f f i c i e n c y of the small units. The depth of a g i l l n e t i s r e s t r i c t e d while the depth of a seine net i s not subject to r e s t r i c t i o n s . . Technological innovations have also improved the operation of seining. Informants r e c a l l e d that i n the 1950*s and early 1960»s seine boats were not regarded as a good investment i n Sointula. The advantage of seining today rests i n the hydraulically powered 112 drum. Although t h i s f i r s t came into use i n the late 1940*s , the perfection of the technigue along with changes i n boats design and increased power for p u l l i n g the the net, were introduced i n sointula only l a t e i n the 1960*s. The use of the running l i n e , the l a t e s t refinement has only been in existence f o r the l a s t two or three years., Hhile d i f f e r e n t i a l gear regulation may bias returns toward seiners, a free market i n factors, would lead to the egualisation of of marginal revenues from investments. Asset markets may be important s t a b i l i z i n g factors i n the natural resource sectors where b i o l o g i c a l uncertainty and the process of expectation formation may lead to d e s t a b i l i s a t i o n (Solow 1974). Hilen (1977) has examined and shown empirical evidence f o r the operation of a market i n licences i n which expectations of future catch are c a p i t a l i z e d . The e f f e c t of the licence l i m i t a t i o n program has been to increase the numbers of seine boats and the per vessel cost i n licence and gear (Fraser 1977). The increase i n the numbers of seines was made possible by the allowance of the transfer of licences from one gear type to another. Seiners were a t t r a c t i v e investments for t h e i r technological effectiveness. A spurt of building was suggested as having occurred after the peak f i s h i n g year of 1973. The tax benefits of c a p i t a l investment following a peak year may have also been an inducement f o r investment i n seiners. Licence values for the f l e e t averaged $2000/ton. The licence value was highest after the 1973 catch. The licence value increases seasonally from January on and the higher the 113 expectation, the higher i s the licence value. For the 1976-77 season, the value was $2000 i n January and increased s l i g h t l y to the present value at the time of the study {Hay-June 1977). Since the value of the licen c e amounts to 23% of the t o t a l value in the case of a seine, i t i s an important factor affecting investment. Factors used most intensively should be those lowest i n cost. S i t h licencing, c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s i n the growth of the seine f l e e t can be seen to follow t h i s p r i o r i t y . Tonnage i s licenced and has thus become a high cost factor. Seiners are being b u i l t to minimize the "registered" tonnage per vessel. Boat building economizes on the high cost factors involved i n the f i s h i n g process - registered tonnage, licence, and equipment. The pattern i s of increased investment in non-licenced factors of production such as hydraulic power,multi-species gear,electronics and higher power engines for increased mobility., The increased numbers of combination vessels are also a response of the f l e e t to current regulatory practice of short openings and to the r e l a t i v e abundances and prices of d i f f e r e n t species of f i s h . Combination vessels are more costly than g i l l n e t t e r s , $72,708 versus 27,714, p=.02. The variance of measures for combination boats i s high as there i s a great variety i n types of combination. Gear types that are combined are GS-halibut, GN-herring, GN-troll, GN-halibut-troll, and combinations of a l l four. ., The herring g i l l n e t f i s h e r y i s no longer open to new entrants. About one dozen boats have th i s licence in Sointula and t h i s may add up to $5000 to the 114 fisherman's income i n the one month season i n February. The ranking of incomes according to vessel type was seine>troll>combination>gillnet. The average wage for a member of a seine crew was $7000, for g i l l n e t owners i t was $10*000 and for combination owners i t was $15,000. New seine boat captains were earning $20-25,000 and with more experience were capable of making $40,000 or more. The top income in the Sointula-Alert Bay area was $80,000 for an owner of several vessels.. Questions on the attitudes of fisherman to the v a r i a b i l i t y in catch were asked .These were : 1) what would be the e f f e c t on you of a catch one-half the average? 2) What eff e c t would a catch twice as large have? The responses were are l i s t e d i n table 5.13. One fisherman said Table 5.13 Contingency Plans of fishermen One-half the catch: dont know 3 not a serious e f f e c t 4 go logging 4 create hardship 2 have to leave fishing 1 Twice the catch: Dont know have extra money reinvest i n gear 3 to spend 4 and eguipment 3 that i t was necessary to have three good years to pay f o r the bad. Another answer to the guestion of v a r i a b i l i t y i n catch, was that i t was hard to budget for family and household purchases that might be desired. Those who said that a bad year would 115 cause hardship were both seine boat skippers. The one who said that he would have to leave f i s h i n g with one-half the catch was a s B a i l e r g i l l n e t t e r . The majority expressed uncertainty about the future of f i s h i n g . "Get i t while i t s here » was one comment frem a young seiner. For a bumper year, those saying that they would not re-invest tended to be the newer a r r i v a l s to the Island who were s a t i s f i e d with t h e i r present l e v e l of income. Those choosing re-investment included a young g i l l n e t t e r , formerly a seine boat crew member, and a seine skipper/owner. A f i n a l question was asked i n the interviews - " What do you think are the prospects for fishing i n the future?** Most of the answers expressed a b e l i e f that f i s h i n g would continue to be a good as i t had been in the recent years. References were often made to the salmon enhancement program of the government, as the means for maintaining or improving the salmon stocks. The general attitude might be summed up i n the feeling expressed by an owner of a recently purchased seiner, that the boat was a good investment for the future or else he would not have bought i t . , The r a t i o of c a p i t a l invested to the employment created was s i g n i f i c a n t l y larger for seiners than for the g i l l n e t t e r s : $39>400 per person employed to $27,700 respectively. Information on past f l e e t composition suggested that Sointula i s following the pro v i n c i a l trend toward the replacement of g i l l n e t t e r s by seines and combination boats. The f i n a n c i a l e f f i c i e n c y of vessels was evaluated by comparing the revenue/cost r a t i o s . The more general topic of the returns to society at large, i s addressed by comparing the a l t e r n a t i v e types of opportunity that 116 are available to the i n d i v i d u a l (Bishan 1971). Later sections i n this chapter deal with opportunities i n the l o c a l forest industries and the r e t a i l sector. Opportunities for p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n the logging industry have been most important to the community. The base rate for logging i s comparable to the yearly incomes f o r crewmen and g i l l n e t t e r s . However, preferences for f i s h i n g may be a consequence of the high seasonal incomes, as well as, t r a d i t i o n . The measurement of the e f f e c t s of altered si z e and composition of the f l e e t i s undertaken i n the simulation model. The model w i l l incorporate the e f f e c t of changing employment i n the f i s h i n g industry by a response of labour migration. Though Sointula i s a remote community, the opportunities f o r non-fishing employment may be greater than those for v i l l a g e s situated i n even more isola t e d regions., 5.3 Marketing of Fish i n Sointula There are four wholesale buyers of f i s h on Sointula. Three of these are "cash buyers" and the fourth i s the c o l l e c t o r for a large corporation, B.C. Packers. The cash buyers are located on f l o a t i n g scows with a guonsat-style cabin. Two of them are i n the Sointula breakwater and a t h i r d i s f i f t e e n miles east i n a cove at the eastern t i p of Malcolm Island. The cash buyers are so named because they purchase f i s h f o r immediate cash payment. Their price i s above that payed by the company because i t i s a lumpsum payment, while the company offers a lower price plus a cash bonus paid to the skipper at the end of the season. The crew of the seine boat does not benefit from t h i s higher price but i s paid i t s share at the 117 minimum price negotiated between the companies and the union during the f i s h i n g season. The union minimum price for the 1977 season was 70 cents f o r sockeye., i n August the cash buyer, Mi l l e r d was paying 95 cents for sockeye. His price for other species at t h i s time was coho - 95 cents dressed, chum - 70 cents, pink - 40 cents, spring - large $2.20, medium $1.55 and small $1.10. In June, Mille r d was paying s l i g h t l y l e s s at 90 cents for sockeye. The cash buyers are nominally i n competition and during the height of the season small p r i c e wars may s t a r t with one r a i s i n g the price s l i g h t l y and the other following s u i t . Being i n such close proximity, the managers of the operations also meet and discuss a common price. The two buyers at the breakwater purchase from seiners and g i l l n e t t e r s . ; G i l l n e t t e r s i n p a r t i c u l a r , mention that they l i k e cash buyers as i t gives them the freedom of choosing the one with the best price. A converted seiner i s chartered by B.C. Packers to pick up and deliver t h e i r f i s h . I t runs a c o l l e c t i n g route around the isla n d . Ice for the boats i s provided by machines at each of the scows and by the large i c e maker b u i l t with government assistance at the B.C. Packers plant in Alert Bay. A t h i r d cash buyer has a scow and two c o l l e c t i n g boats at Mitchell Bay. He i s a long term resident, and takes his f i s h to a smaller processing company at Port Hardy. Being located at Mitc h e l l Bay makes t h i s operation more e a s i l y accessible to g i l l n e t t e r s f i s h i n g on the far side of Malcolm Island. The price i s also competitive with the others and near the end of the sockey run i n the area, t h i s year, his price was raised to 118 $1.10, outcompeting other buyers.,. Two g i l l n e t boats f i s h f or the Prince Rupert Cooperative. By a sharing agreement between processors, they are able to s e l l to l o c a l companies. The Coop system consists of two payments; the f i r s t payment i s made at the time of purchase and the second additional payment i s made a year l a t e r after the "pack" of f i s h has been sold. The Coop also involves a membership fee and occasional work, but provides benefits i n terms of of l i f e insurance, price s t a b i l i t y , and cred i t through the associated Credit Onion. The Coop operates on a pay as you go basis - even the ice i s provided at cost. The history of the B.C. Fishing Coops i s described i n d e t a i l i n H i l l (1972) . , Transportation of f i s h from the scows i n the breakwater of Sointula i s by a 100 foot packer which tows a brine f i l l e d barge. A weekly run i s made to Vancouver where the f i s h are delivered. The packer a r r i v e s at the end of the f i s h i n g week to pick up f i s h as they are delivered. This system of transportation to a few centralised plants has been i n existance since consolidation of the industry began i n the 1930*s. Previously there were many l o c a l i z e d canning f a c t o r i e s and fishermen would deliver d i r e c t l y to the plant. 5.4 Labour and Labour Organisation The f i s h i n g industry has been organised by the OFASU since the l a t e 1940's. The union was created after a long period of iso l a t e d s t r i k e s and regional attempts at organisation, i n which Sointula played a seminal r o l e . Province wide, the union has about 8,000 members at present; the Sointula l o c a l has a 119 membership of one hundred and f i f t e e n . The character of union organisation i n the B.C. fishery as described by Jamieson and Gladstone (1950) portrays a strong l o c a l allegiance^ They point out that boats which fished during a s t r i k e , for example, would be b l a c k l i s t e d from s e l l i n g t h e i r f i s h anywhere. Presently i n Sointula, while a few union boats carry l i s t s on board of s t r i k e breakers, many i n d i v i d u a l s speak against the union and p a r t i c u l a r l y the hardship created by s t r i k e s during the f i s h i n g season. Such opinions may change i f the current good f i s h i n g slackens. Not every fisherman i s e l i g i b l e to join the union. Owners of vessels employing three or more persons cannot joi n . This excludes seine boat owners from membership. The crew of the seine boats are a l l unionized and their membership fees are taken out automatically from t h e i r paycheck. For g i l l n e t t e r s and t r c l l e r s , membership i s optional. & majority are memmbers i n Sointula, though some have opted out. The executive of the l o c a l i s young and a r t i c u l a t e . They have frequent contact with Vancouver head o f f i c e s , as well as, with personnel i n the Fisheries Dept. of the government who are responsible f o r f i e l d operations. Last year a region-wide protest movement arose over the f a l l Chum salmon regulations. As a r e s u l t , an advisory committee on the regulation was set up by the Fisheries agency with representation from fishermen i n the coastal regions and Fisheries b i o l o g i s t s and managers. Operating f o r the f i r s t time t h i s year, i t meets i n Vancouver to vote on a management plan for the run. I f successful, such organisations are to be i n s t i t u t e d for a l l the species that make up the commercial 120 fishery. The union i s represented on the current committee along with members from the Native Brotherhood and the Fraser Biver G i l l n e t t e r s Association. The main stated function of the union i s to represent the inte r e s t s of the fishermen. Its main e f f e c t i s in negotiating the minimum price for salmon each year. In c o l l e c t i v e bargaining, the strongest t o o l of the union i s the s t r i k e . The l a s t s t r i k e was i n 1975 and resulted in a t i e up cf boats for a month during the main f i s h i n g season. Such s t r i k e s can have a major impact on the output of f i s h and on the incomes of fishermen. While the shoreworkers i n the union are paid an hourly wage, fishermen*s incomes are based on the guantitiy and price of f i s h caught. Payment of crew members i s by a share system. This system means that on a boat with a four man crew and a skipper, each crew member gets 14.5% of the catch, after expenses. One of the Sointula skippers claims that he pays a s l i g h t l y higher share to to h i s crew. He fi s h e s for one of the smaller companies and receives about one - t h i r d of the net catch as the skipper, one-third goes to the crew and one-third to the owner of the boat. The reasons given for paying a higher share i n Sointula was that: 1) i t i s a small community and everyone knows each other; 2) there are better crew members here.. For the larger companies such as B.C. Packers, the share system i s one share to each crew, two to the skipper and owner of the net each, and the remainder of the eleven shares to the company. 121 Bat with the bonus system used by the company, i t i s d i f f i c u l t to evaluate the exact shares. Bonuses are paid at the end of the season d i r e c t l y to the skipper. I t was learned that the bonus paid may vary from 15$ to 5055, of the value of the catch i n a peak year such as 1973. There are no B.C., Packers boats i n Sointula, though two skippers have contracts to deliv e r to them. Most of the community's f l e e t i s egually divided between the cash buyers at the breakwater. The e f f e c t of the bonus system i s to t i e the owners more c l o s e l y to the companies, while the share system based on the negotiated price, a l i g n s the i n t e r e s t s of the crew members with the union organisation. 5.5 Occupational Mobility and Migration An important c h a r a c t e r i s t i c of the adaptation of the fishermen of Sointula to l o c a l economic conditions i s occupational mobility. Most fishermen are v e r s a t i l e in a l l aspects involved i n the occupation. They are able to s h i f t f l e x i b l y from one type of fishery to another as conditions demand. Combination vessels are one indication of the enterprising response of fishermen to regulations which r e s t i c t e d the returns to one type of f i s h i n g gear - the g i l l n e t . The use of several gear types on one boat requires additional knowledge of techniques, regulations, and the a b i l i t y to coordinate the use of a larger inventory of eguipment. Another facet of the a b i l i t y to make use of opportunities i s employment in other resource ind u s t r i e s , p a r t i c u l a r l y logging. A more detailed examination of these aspects of rural employment w i l l be examined below., 122 5.5.1 Dynamics of a two species f i s h e r y . Fishermen are able to s h i f t f l e x i b l y t h e i r harvesting a c t i v i t y from one species to another. In the year of the f i e l d study, many smaller boats put on halibut gear i n early spring and only s h i f t e d to salmon gear several weeks a f t e r the season opening i n June, when the salmon were more abundant. An inter e s t i n g s i t u a t i o n of "binary f i s h i n g " also occurs i n the area, and i l l u s t r a t e s the importance of the character of the labour market i n determining the e f f o r t of fi s h i n g . Near Alert Bay i s G i l f o r d Island where there are extensive clam beds. They are the basis f o r a one quarter m i l l i o n d o l l a r annual harvest. Diqqinq clams i s done by l o c a l Indians, for whom thi s i s an alternative source of employment to f i s h i n q . A mechanized digger has been used, but i s currently prohibited because of the damage done to the beds. The clam and salmon f i s h i n g are linked. The price of clams goes down when there i s bad salmon f i s h i n g . This i s because i t i s easier to get digqers when there has been a poor salmon season. More clams are produced, howerver the price may drop resultinq i n lower averaqe wages. Figures f o r the clam production i n the #12 f i s h i n g area IJohcstone S t r a i t s , area reports) are: year millions l b s . Salmon f i s h i n g 1972 1.357 poor 1973 .553 good 1974 .590 good 1975 1.2 poor 1976 1.74 poor 123 The s t a t i s t i c s support the conjecture that the f i s h e r i e s of salmon and clams are linked through the labour market. A poor salmon season increases the supply of labour and a greater amount of clams are harvested. The converse r e l a t i o n holds for a good f i s h i n g season. This example shows the potential significance of the labour component to the management of the e f f o r t applied to the f i s h e r y . 5.5.2 Logging and other occupations The employment of fishermen i s characterized by an occupational pluralism on the west Coast ( S i n c l a i r and Bcland 1970). In Sointula, there are two dozen men who are employed year round i n the logging industry. In the f i s h i n g off-season, winter, the number of men employed i n logging grows to 50-60. From a labour base of one hundred and twenty i n the commercial fishery, t h i s means that about t h i r t y percent of the fishermen are engaged in logging i n the winter. This information i s based on interviews with informants i n logging and f i s h i n g . The t o t a l number employed i n f i s h i n g can be estimated as fellows: union membership =115 number of seine boat skippers = 15 t o t a l = 130 An independent estimate of the r e l a t i v e importance of various occupations to the work force was available from the household survey. Table 5.14 shows the percentages employed i n each occupation. Fifty-one percent of the heads of households said that t h e i r main occupation was f i s h i n g . Of these 13% l i s t e d themselves as fishermen-lcggers. Those l i s t i n g t h e i r occupation 124 Table 5.14 Occupation Structure from the Household Survey occupation fisherman fisherman/logger logger tradesman construction housewife store clerk teacher a r t i s t minister unemployed r e t i r e d % of head of households 38. 4 13. 0 8.9 11.0 3.0 2.7 2. 1 2. 1 0.6 0.6 0.6 16.6 as logging only comprised 8.9% of the sample. Three large forest products companies are located opposite Sointula on Vancouver Island. These are MacMillan-Bloedel, CanFor, and Rayonier. They are currently logging i n t h e i r large tree farm licen c e holdings. For Sointula loggers, the obstacle of transportation to the logging operation i s met by running a private speed boat to and from work. On Halcolm Island i t s e l f there i s a logging camp run by the MacDonald Cedar company, during the winter when the island remains snow fr e e . Though much of the isla n d has been logged of cedar, the company has recently leased land i n the eastern end and w i l l continue, i t s operations there. The company employs up to half a dozen men from the community, and they are able to l i v e i n t h e i r homes, rather than i n the company camp. Some younger immigrants to Sointula from Finland or other r u r a l areas i n North America, have been able to make good use of t h e i r s k i l l s i n logging. Several men from the community work as f a l l e r s - the person who does the actual cutting down of the tree. This i s the most dangerous, but also 125 the highest paid job in logging, l i e 1977 pay scale for jobs i n logging was: f a l l e r $111/day hook and r i g $9.28/hr chokerman $7.34/hr r i g s l i n g e r $8.01/hr landing man $7.79/hr Logging i n the North Island i s projected to be a growing industry (B.C. Government 1974). The town of Port McNeill has grown from 400 i n 1965 to almost 1500 i n 1976, as a result of t h i s development. It i s increasingly composed of permanent married residents, who own t h e i r own homes. This i s a trend that i s encouraged by the industry as i t provides a more stable labour force. There i s s t i l l a high turnover rate and services such as banks have d i f f i c u l t y holding employees.• The increasing preference of companies for permanent employees may adversely affect seasonal workers such as fishermen. The open p i t copper mine at Port Hardy, does not offer much employment to fishermen seeking only seasonal employment. Despite these trends i n employment opportunity, the men of Sointula w i l l always i n the foreseeable future be able to find employment in.logging by working at more remote operations. Another factor which makes logging appear a r e l i a b l e a l ternative employment to fishermen i s that the s t r i k e s take place in the summer, during the f i s h i n g season. About one-half of the fishermen c o l l e c t e d unemployment insurance during a l l or part of the winter. The program for fishermen operates as follows. A minimum of eight weeks of 126 f i s h i n g i s required i n order to qualify f o r benefits. The minimum amount earned must be $44 and the maximum amount insured i s $220. The period i n which benefits may be c o l l e c t e d by fishermen i s Nov.1 to March 31. The time for which benefits are paid i s 5/6 of the time worked. The amount of benefit paid i s 2/3 of the average weekly earnings up to a maximum of $148. The amount of transfer payment made, for a 12-14 week average fis h i n g period would then amount to $2,000.. To calculate the importance of unemployment insurance to the yearly income, the average wage must be calculated. For the seventy boat owners, the average income was $10,663. For the s i x t y men employed as crew, the average wage was $7000 . The aggregate average comes to $8972 and an average transfer payment of $1000 means that 11% of disposable income i s i n transfer payments. For many vessel owners f i s h i n g amounts to a year round occupation. T r o l l i n g may be carried out twelve months of the year. The salmon season ends i n November for the other gear types and the winter months may be spent i n maintenance and repair. Holidays are also taken i n the winter. By the beginning of Fetuary, the herring season i s s t a r t i n g . I t continues for one month. Halibut opens i n March and salmon i n the t h i r d week of June. Other occupations i n Sointula provide some f u l l or part-time jobs. Carpenty, contracting and home building provided about two dozen f u l l and part-time jobs. One man operates a transportation company - trucking goods for the Coop from the south and bringing fresh f i s h back to the c i t i e s . R e t a i l stores 127 - the Coop general and hardware store, the gas station and the variety store provide a further dozen jobs. The job si t u a t i o n f o r women i n Sointula i s bleak. The largest single employer i s the Coop which hires about ten clerks. Other jobs are as cooks aboard the lo c a l seine boats or net mending. There i s one young woman who i s the skipper of a modern g i l l n e t t e r on the is l a n d . I t i s one of two boats owned by her parents; her brother fishes the other, A new source of employment i s provided by a tree planting cooperative, which was established by recent young immigrants to the isl a n d . This group has been able to obtain planting contracts from logging companies and over the l a s t few years has employed about 10-20 persons, mostly women, i n the spring. I f they cannot get jobs on the Island, women look to the outside. & few commute to Port McNeill to work at c l e r i c a l jobs for the timber companies or i n the school. Many have also l e f t permanently f o r jobs i n the south. In contrast to the women, the men of Sointula rarely complete high school. They leave when they reach the leg a l age of sixteen and begin to f i s h . P a r t i c u l a r l y among the sons of fishermen for whom employment i s readi l y available, the income le v e l s are far above what could be otherwise achieved even by those many years t h e i r seniors. Of the few males who do complete high school, some go on to occupations related to maritime l i f e , such as the coast guard or working as ferry captains. Despite educational disadvantages, migration and travel has always been a part of the l i f e c y c l e of the men of Sointula. The personal remembrance cf one of the oldest residents documents a history 128 of moving out of Sointula for periods ranging from one to twenty years. More current was the observation by one man that, of his high school c l a s s i n the early 1960's, only he was l e f t on the island. Migration cf youth from the island seems t o have been p a r t i c u l a r l y high i n the 1960*s. Residents i n t h i s age bracket r e c a l l having l e f t i n t h e i r youth for the c i t y and worked at a variety of jobs such as construction or longshoreman. Later they returned to the i s l a n d because of the at t r a c t i o n of the way of l i f e and employment i n f i s h i n g . , There are i n d i c a t i o n s that youths now entering the labour force are remaining i n greater numbers on the i s l a n d . Of the teenage youths a c t i v e l y i n the labour force, the attitude toward the community and way of l i f e i s strongly positive and there i s an awareness of the increasing unemployment and congestion i n the c i t i e s . This observation supports the r e s u l t s of the high school survey i n d i c a t i n g a greater preference for remaining after graduation in the home town, than was expressed by students i n other North i s l a n d communities., 5.6 Retail Sector The Sointula Coop store i s the only grocery and dry goods store i n the town. The cooperative was established i n 1909 and i s the oldest i n the province. I t s has had three buildings; the l a t e s t i s a two story building with the grocery store on the bottom and general store on the second f l o o r . The current membership i s three hundred. As a Coop, i t s members receive a rebate, which varies from 3-5SS, at the end of each year. It i s the balance a f t e r operating costs have been taken out of the 129 t o t a l receipts from sales. A small c r e d i t union i s also located in the Coop, with current assets of $100,000. The growth of the Coop has been slow i n the recent years: gross sales year $680,000 1977 $642,000 1976 $365,000 1971 A sign i n the managers o f f i c e that has been taken down, r e f l e c t s past abundance and lower prices - "The Home of Western Hos p i t a l i t y - Free Coffee". Prices for most vegetables are 20-25% higher than i n Vancouver. The added amount i s a f r e i g h t charge. Since the regular car ferry was introduced in 1972, transport has been by truck. Previously i t was by barge and the change has altered the price structure somewhat as the charge for sea transport i s on a per volume basis, while that f o r truck i s by weight. The greatest mark up currently i s for hardware, which may be as much as 1002.more than in the lower mainland because of i t s heavy weight. The Coop i s run by a board of members, who are long term residents of the i s l a n d . Besides employing c l e r k s , there i s a full-time manager and an accountant. The majority of patrons of the store are from the i s l a n d . Fishermen are large buyers and receipts at the counter when they purchase th e i r weekly provisions during the f i s h i n g season are twice that normally taken. Though the Coop bas no competition i n Sointula, there are two large, modern supermarkets i n Port McNeill. They have a greater variety of goods though the prices are comparable t c the Coop's, on average. A t r i p on the ferry to shopping i n Port 130 McNeill i s a routine excursion for many housewives. Major purchases of appliances or cars can be made in Port McNeill or Port Hardy or centers i n the south. The opening of a paved highway, i n 1977, w i l l make Campbell Hiver only two hours away by car and t h i s w i l l attract many shoppers., 5.7 Land Ose Pattern The o r i g i n a l Kalevan Kansa colonisation company had the right s to the entire Malcolm Island. When the company collapsed in 1905, the land with the exception of the i n d i v i d u a l l y owned l o t s , reverted to the Crown. At present, ninty percent of the land i s Crown land, that i s leased to logging companies. In the town, i n d i v i d u a l l o t s are owned by residents. There i s no sewage system, so that each l o t has a septic tank. Along the south shore, are twenty to ninety acre l o t s , that i n the past had been homesteads. They are owned by residents, used as farms, have been recently purchased by newcomers, or are owned by nonresidents. While popular sentiment ran strongly against the wave of young migrants during the early 1970*s, the newcomers who have remained are gradually becoming accepted i n to the l i f e and economy of the i s l a n d . Prices for land have risen sharply. Town l o t s with a house are currently, i n the $25,000-35,000 range. County l o t s of about 60 acres are in the range of $100,000. The prices are s t i l l considerably below those i n southern Vancouver Island, due to the r e l a t i v e i s o l a t i o n . ? The government has offered i n the la s t few years, some f i v e acres l o t s for lease, on the i s l a n d . A twenty-one year lease i s given, providing that a house i s b u i l t and land cleared. The 131 r e n t a l price for t h i s land i s about $200. Six of these l o t s have been opened up along Kaleva road and houses have already been b u i l t on them. Mitchell Bay at the t i p of the i s l a n d had been i n decline i n the 1960*s leaving several vacant houses. These have since been purchased and occupied by the newcomers of the 1970*s. To the north of Mitchell Bay, a large tract of forest land has been leased and logging operations are to be ca r r i e d out there. The "booming ground", where the logs are dumped into the ocean and made in t o log booms for towing are located on Mitchell Bay. On the extreme western end of the i s l a n d on a one mile sguare block of land, there i s an Indian reservation. Without water access, i t was given, i n the past, i n exchange for other lands. Nearby at Putney point, i s a manned lighthouse. The north shore of the islan d i s not serviced by roads or e l e c t r i c i t y , and has no homes at present. In the past a farmer had l i v e d there and there can also be seen today the remains of a house once used i n logging operations. There i s a long sandy beach and a view of the snow capped mountains on the mainland. As an unincorporated municipality, planning decisions for Sointula are made by the regional authority for the Mount Haddington d i s t r i c t , whose o f f i c e s are i n Port McNeill. The pro v i n c i a l government has carried out a program to set up advisory planning committees i n each l o c a l i t y . , On Malcolm Island, t h i s body has become a focus of p o l i t i c a l a c t i v i t y and i t s public meetings are well attended, sometimes by as many as one hundred people. Current feelings are divided, but a majority probably have the concern that the development of the i s l a n d be 132 made in consultation with the residents. Zoning controversies have occurred and land has been rezoned i n seme areas from r e s i d e n t i a l to r u r a l , making two acre l o t s i z e s , the minimum. This r e s t r i c t s the a c t i v i t i e s of those who would l i k e to subdivide t h e i r land for development. The advisory committee has formulated i t s p r i o r i t i e s for the development of Malcolm i s l a n d . They emphasize t h e i r desire f o r a say in planning and for a respect for the character of the community. Though the committee does not have a consensus, i t i s clear that Sointula i s unigue among the North Island communities, i n some respects. Residential s t a b i l i t y i s high and c u l t u r a l and h i s t o r i c a l features make i t a d i s t i n c t i v e town i n the North Vancouver Island area. 5.8 Summary Fishing i s of primary importance to the economy of Sointula,, Survey r e s u l t s showed that over one-half of the heads of households were primarily engaged i n f i s h i n g occupations. Occupational pluralism i s an important mode of adaptation to the regional economy. One t h i r d of those describing themselves as fishermen also l i s t e d logging as a source of employment. The f i s h i n g f l e e t i s undergoing a change to a more c a p i t a l intensive structure. The schedule of interviews with fishermen provided the information for the s p e c i f i c a t i o n of the physical parameters, costs and revenues for the gear-types i n the community f l e e t . Differences i n economic e f f i c i e n c y between the labour intensive g i l l n e t t e r s and more c a p i t a l intensive seiners, could not s t a t i s t i c a l l y be distinguished.;Hhile seiners were 133 able tc harvest more f i s h per man than g i l l n e t t e r s , t h e i r purchase involved a large investment and payments on c a p i t a l , at least i n the f i r s t few years of operation. Their annual repair costs over t h i s period were r e l a t i v e l y low. G i l l n e t t e r s involved much less of an investment, but the aging vessels i n the f l e e t involved r e l a t i v e l y high repair costs to keep them i n operation. The re s u l t was that the o v e r a l l e f f i c i e n c i e s between vessel types, taken as the r a t i o of the net income to the t o t a l annual costs, were not s t a t i s t i c a l l y d i f f e r e n t for the community f l e e t i n the year of the study - 1977. A t h i r d gear type - combination vessel - was an intermediary category f o r most variables, between the g i l l n e t t e r s and seiners. The eguality of returns to c a p i t a l between types of vessels supports the conclusion that region-wide markets i n vessels and licences are an adjusting mechanism. The a l t e r a t i o n of the t r a d i t i o n a l f l e e t composition has been in response to changes i n cost and revenue factors between the vessels types. The implementation of the licencing program along with the trends i n harvest lev e l s and technological innovation are leading to an altered investment picture f o r the l o c a l fisherman. This has been re f l e c t e d i n the Sointula f l e e t . The replacement of aging g i l l n e t t e r s by combination vessels and the increased numbers of seiners are changing the t r a d i t i o n a l small-owner operated base. The effect t h i s w i l l have on t o t a l employment w i l l depend on the leve l s of t o t a l investments i n the future years. An analysis of the options for future development and the implications to the s o c i a l structure of the v i l l a g e i s carried out i n the next chapters. FIGURE 5.1 THE DISTRIBUTION OVER VARIABLES FOR THE TOTAL SOINTULA FLEET MIDPOINT COUNT FOR 2. LENGTH (EACH X= 1) 32.000 11 x X X X X X X X X X X X 37.500 9 > X X X X X X X X X 4 3.000 4 X X X X X 48.500 5 X X X X X X 54.000 3 +XXX 59.500 5 x X X X X X 65.000 1 XX TOTAL 38 {INTERVAL HIDTH= 5.5000) MIDPOINT COUNT FOR 3.TON (EACH X= 1) 4.5000 10.083 15.667 21.250 26.833 32.417 38.000 16 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 8 X X X X X X X X X 5 X X X X X X 4 xxXXX 1 xx 3 XXXX 1 xx TOTAL 38 (INTERVAL HIDTH= 5.5833) MIDPOINT COUNT FOR 5.CURRENTS (EACH X= 12.000 12 X X X X X X X X X X X X X 74.600 8 X X X X X X X X X 137.20 5 X X X X X X 199.80 4 XXXXX 262.40 3 XXXX 325.00 1 xx MISSING TOTAL 5 38 (INTERVAL 8IDTH= 62.600) HISTOGRAM/FREQUENCIES 81 DPGIST COUNT FOR 13.TOTCOSTS (EACH X= 3.5000 17.125 30.750 4 4.375 58.000 11 X X X X X X X X X X X X 6 +XXXXXX 1 +X 0 x 1 xx MISSING TOTAL 19 38 (INTERVAL HIDTH= 13.625) HISTOGRAM/FREQUENCIES MIDPOINT COUNT FOR 14.AGE ( E A C H X= 1} 19.000 27.500 36.000 44.500 53.000 61.500 70.000 2 +XX 12 + X X X X X X X X X X X X 12 xxxxxxxxxxxxx 3 * X X X 5 X X X X X X 3 X X X X 1 xx TOTAL 38 (INTERVAL «IDTH= 8.5000) HISTGGB AM/FREQUENCIES MIDPOINT COUNT FOR 15.INCOME (EACH X= 1) 7.0000 9 X X X X X X X X X X 16.500 8 X X X X X X X X X 26.000 1 xx 35.500 0 x 45.000 2 XXX MISSING 18 TOTAL 38 (INTERVAL WlDTH= 9.5000) 136 FIGURE 5.2 HISTCGfiAMS FOR GILLNET VESSELS MIDPOINT CODNT FOR 2.LENGTH (EACH X= 1) 32.000 33.500 35.000 1 +X 5 XXXXXX 1 *X TOTAL 7 (INTERVAL WIDTH= 1.5000) MIDPOINT COUNT FOR 3.TON (EACH X= 1) 4.5000 5.7500 7.0000 3 +XXX 2 +XX 2 +XX TOTAL 7 (INTERVAL «IDTH= 1.2500) MIDPOINT COUNT FOR 5.CURRENTS (EACH X= 1) 18.000 28.500 3 9.000 2 +XX 4 XXXXX 1 +X TGTAL (INTERVAL »IDTH= 10.500) MIDPOINT COUNT FOR 13.TOTCOSTS (EACH X= 1) 6.0000 1 +X 7.0000 1 XX MISSING 5 TOTAL 7 (INTERVAL »IDTH= 1.0000) MIDPOINT COUNT FOR 14.AGE (EACH X= 1) 19.000 3 +XXX 40.000 3 XXXX 61.000 1 xx TOTAL 7 (INTERVAL HIDTH= 21 .000) MIDPOINT COUNT FOR 15.INCOME (EACH X= 1) 7.0000 1 xx 8.5000 1 xx 10.000 3 XXXX MISSING 2 TOTAL 7 (INTERVAL WIDTH= 1.5000)" FIGURE 5.3 HISTOGRAMS FOR COMBINATION VESSELS MIDPOINT COUNT FOR 2.LENGTH (EACH X= 1 33.000 37.333 41.667 46.000 6 +XXXXXX 3 +XXX 3 +XXX 1 *X TOTAL 13 (INTERVAL WIDTH= 4.3333) MIDPOINT COUNT FOR 3.TON (EACH X= 1) 5.0000 7.9333 10.867 13.800 5 +XXXXX 4 +XXXX 3 +XXX 1 +X TOTAL 13 (INTERVAL WIDTH= 2.9333) MIDPOINT COUNT FOR 5.CURRENTS (EACH X= 12.000 63.000 114.00 165.00 MISSING TOTAL 3 +XXX 5 *-XXXXX 2 +XX 2 +XX 1 13 (INTERVAL WIDIH= 51.000) MIDPOINT COUNT FOR 1 3.TOTCOSTS (EACH X^  3.5000 18.250 33.000 MISSING TOTAL 4 +XXXX 2 *XX 1 +X 6 13 (INTERVAL «IDTH= 14.750) MIDPOINT COUNT FOR 14.AGE (EACH X= 1) 25.000 4C.000 55.000 70.000 4 +XXXX 8 +XXXXXXXX 0 «• 1 +x TOTAL 13 (INTERVAL HIDTH= 15.000) MIDPOINT COUNT FOR 15.INC0ME (EACH X= 7.0000 19.667 32.333 45.000 MISSING TOTAL 6 +XXXXXX 2 +XX 0 • 1 +x 4 13 (INTERVAL WlDTH= 12.667) 138 FIGURE 5.4 HISTOGBAMS FOB TBOLLEBS MIDPOINT COUNT FOB 2.LENGTH {EACH X= 1) 36.000 50.000 TOTAL 1 *X 2 *XX 3 {INTERVAL HIDTH= 14.000) MIDPOINT COUNT FOR 3.TON {EACH X= 1) 9.0000 17.000 TOTAL 2 +XX 1 +X 3 {INTERVAL HIDTH= 8.0000) MIDPOINT COUNT FOR 5.CURRENTS (EACH X= 1) 20.000 140.00 TOTAL 1 +X 2 +XX 3 (INTERVAL BIDTH= 120.00) MIDPOINT COUNT FOR 13.TOTCOSTS (EACH X= 1) 9.2000 22.000 TOTAL 2 +XX 1 +X 3 (INTERVAL SIDTH= 12.800) MIDPOINT COUNT FOR 14.AGE (EACH X= 1) 43.000 64.000 TOTAL 1 *X 2 +XX 3 (INTERVAL wTDTH= 21.000) MIDPOINT 15.000 HISSING TOTAL COUNT FOR 15.INCOME (EACH X= 1) 1 *X 2 3 {INTEBVAL HIDTH= 1.0000) HISTOGRAMS FOR SEINE VESSELS MIDPOINT COUNT FOR 2.LENGTH (EACH X= 1) 4 0.000 48. 333 56.667 65.000 TOTAL MIDPOINT 8.0000 18.000 28.000 38.000 TOTAL MIDPOINT 50.000 141.67 233.33 325.00 MISSING TOTAL MIDPOINT 4.0000 31.000 58.000 MISSING TOTAL MIDPOINT 23.000 3 3.667 44.333 5 5.000 TOTAL MIDPOINT 12.000 28.000 44.000 MISSING TOTAL 3 +XXX 3 +XXX 7 +XXXXXXX 2 +XX 15 (INTERVAL BIDTB= 8.3333) COUNT FOR 3.TON (EACH X= 1) 3 +XXX 6 +XXXXXX 5 +XXXXX 1 *X 15 (INTERVAL 8IDTH= 10.000) COUNT FOR 5.CURRENT! (EACH X= 1 +X 3 +XXX 6 +XXXXXX 1 *X 4 15 (INTERVAL HIDTH= 91.667) COUNT FOR 13.TOTCOSTS (EACH X= 5 +XXXXX 1 +X 1 +X 8 15 (INTERVAL WIDTH= 27.000) COUNT FOR 14.AGE (EACH X= 1) 3 +XXX 4 +XXXX 3 +XXX 5 +XXXXX 15 (INTERVAL HIDTH= 10.667) COUNT FOR 15.INCOME (EACH X= 1 1 +X 3 +XXX 1 *X 10 15 (INTERVAL SIDTH= 16.000) 140 TABLE 5.1 DESCRIPTIVE MEASURES OF SOINTULA FLEET VARIABLE N MINIMUM MAXIMUM MEAN STD DEV 1.CFV 35 418.00 13584. > 5883.7 3961.8 2.LENGTH 36 32.000 61.000 42.694 9.8266 3. TON 36 4.5000 38.000 12.589 8.7262 4.TYPE 36 1.0000 4.0000 2.1667 1.0282 5.CURRENTS 32 12.000 325.00 103. 17 86.429 6.PASTS 21 3.0000 224. 00 47.500 58.374 7.YEARSAGO . 21 1.0000 35.000 10. 810 10.172 8.LICENCES 20 1.. 80.00 3.0000 2.1200 .33340 9.EQUIPMNT 18 5.0000 32.000 17.300 7.6936 10. REPAIRS 12 0. 15.000 3.6250 3.8678 11.REPLACE 14 0. ; 75.000 9.5857 19.181 12.FUEL 17 .80000 10.300 2.7941 2.5462 13.TOTCOSTS 18 3. 5000 33.000 11.817 7.8837 14.AGE 36 19.000 70.000 39.556 12.713 15.INCOME 18 7.0000 45.000 15.889 11.483 16.TOTINC 18 7. 0000 76.000 21.722 21.464 17.RATEAPPR 21 -19. 500 30.000 4.6 694 9.4158 18.TOTCTAUG 28 3.1349 33.000 11. 013 7.3695 19.EQUIPAUG 32 5.0000 32.000 16.967 6.8100 20.IOTCURS 32 23.329 355.69 120. 14 91.871 21.CAPCOSTS 32 0. 71.137 16.583 19.912 22.TOTANCST 27 3.5000 84.198 27.717 22.510 141 TABLE 5.2 DESCRIPTIVE MEASURES ALERT BAY SEINERS VARIABLE N MINIMUM MAXIMUM MEAN STD DEV 1.CFV 1 4725. 0 4725.0 4725.0 2.LENGTH 2 44.000 65.000 54. 500 14.849 3. TON 2 10.000 32.000 21.000 15.556 4.TYPE 2 3.0000 3.0000 3.0000 5.CURRENTS 1 225.00 225.00 225.00 6.PASTS 1 65.000 65.000 65.000 7.YEARSAGO 1 7.0000 7.0000 7.0000 6.LICENCES 0 9.EQUIPMNT 0 10.REPAIRS 0 11.REPLACE 1 55.000 55.000 55.000 12.FUEL 0 13.T0TC0STS 1 58.000 58.000 58.000 14. AGE 2 27.000 31.000 29. 000 2.8284 15.INCOME 2 12.000 20.000 16.000 5.6569 16.TOTINC 2 32.000 40.000 36. 000 5.6569 17.RATEAPPR 1 22.857 22.857 22.857 18.TOTCTAUG 1 58.000 58.000 58.000 19.EQUIPAUG 1 24.501 24.501 24.501 20.TOTCURS 1 249.50 249.50 249.50 21.CAPCOSTS 1 49.900 49.900 4 9.900 22.TOTANCST 1 107.90 107.90 107.90 142 TABLE 5.3 DESCRIPTIVE MEASURES SOINTULA GILLNETTERS VARIABLE N MINIMUM MAXIMUM MEAN STD DEV 1.CFV 7 418.00 3748.0 2643.9 1183.9 2.LENGTH 7 32.000 35.000 33.571 .97590 3. TON 7 4.5000 7.0000 5.7857 .99403 4. TYPE 7 2.0000 2.0000 2.0000 5.CURRENTS 7 18.000 39.000 27.714 7.2276 6.PASTS 5 5.0000 40.Q00 16.200 13.719 7.YEAfiSAGO 5 1.0000 17.000 8.2000 7.2595 8.LICENCES 5 2.0000 2.0000 2.0000 9.EQUIPMNT 4 5.2000 15.000 8.8500 4.4042 10.REPAIRS 2 2.0000 2.0000 2.0000 11.REPLACE 3 3. 5000 10.000 6.4333 3.2960 12.FUEL 1 1.5000 1.5000 1.5000 13.TOTCOSTS 2 6.0000 7.0000 6.5000 .70711 14.AGE 7 19.000 61 .000 32. 57 1 13.575 15.INCOME 5 7.0000 10.000 9.0000 1.4142 16.TOTINC 5 7.0000 10.000 9.0000 1.4142 17.RATEAPPR 5 -3.0000 5.0000 1.8608 3.1968 18.TOTCTAUG 4 3.8249 7.0000 5.4918 1.3458 19.EQUIPAUG 7 5.2000 15.000 10.292 3.6035 20.TOTCURS 7 30.762 44.200 38. 006 5.3344 21.CAPCOSTS 7 0. 8.8400 5.2744 3.7341 22.TOTANCST 4 3.8249 15.488 9.2639 5.6700 143 TABLE 5.4 DESCRIPTIVE MEASURES SOINTULA COMBINATION VESSELS VARIABLE N MINIMUM MAXIMUM MEAN STD DEV 1.CFV 13 1327.0 11187. 5416.5 3 744.8 2.LENGTH 13 33.000 46.000 37.000 3.9791 3. TON 13 5.0000 13.800 7.5769 2.8592 4.TYPE 13 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 5.CURRENTS 12 12.000 165.00 72. 7 0 8 48.980 6.PASTS 8 3.0000 154.00 36.688 50.133 7.YEARSAGO 8 1.0000 20.000 7.6250 7.4054 8.LICENCES 8 2.0000 3.0000 2.2500 .46291 9.EQ0IPMNT 7 5.0000 25.000 16.000 6.5320 10.REPAIRS 5 1. 5000 5.0000 2.5000 1.4142 1 1.REPLACE 4 3.6000 14.000 6.9000 4.7791 12.FUEL 8 .80000 6.8000 2.0375 2.0128 13.TOTCOSTS 7 3.5000 33.000 12. 957 10.419 14.AGE 13 25.000 70.000 37.692 11.477 15.INCOME 9 7.0000 45.000 15.222 11.734 16.TOTINC 9 7.0000 45.000 15.222 11.734 17.RATEAPPR 8 -3.0000 7.8250 3.0576 3.6049 18.TOTCTAUG 13 3.1349 33.000 10.678 8.0279 19.EQUIPAUG 12 5.0000 25.000 15.360 5.3295 20.TOTCURS 12 23.329 181.00 88i 068 51.005 21.CAPCOSTS 12 0. 34.822 13.050 11.028 22.TOTANCST 12 3.5000 67.822 22.951 16.727 144 TABLE 5.5 DESCRIPTIVE MEASURES SGINTULA TfiCLLERS VARIABLE N MINIMUM MAXIMUM MEAN SID DEV 1.CFV 3 2185.0 4598.0 3012.7 1373.4 2.LENGTH 3 36.000 50.000 43.000 7.0000 3. TON 3 9.0000 17.000 12.000 4.3589 4.TYPE 3 4.0000 4.0000 4.0000 5.CURRENTS 3 20.000 140.00 86.667 61.101 6.PASTS 2 4. 0000 40.000 22.000 25.456 7. YEARSAGO 2 25.000 35.000 30.000 7.0711 8.LICENCES 2 1.8000 2.0000 1.9000 .14142 9.EQUIPMNT 0 10.REPAIRS 1 4.0000 4.0000 4.0000 11.REPLACE 1 4.0000 4.0000 4.0000 12.FUEL 1 1.2000 1.2000 1.2000 13.TOTCOSTS 3 9.2000 22.000 15.400 6.4094 14.AGE 3 43.000 64.000 55.667 11.150 15.INCOME 1 15.000 15.000 15.000 16.TOTINC 1 18.000 18.000 18.000 17.RATEAPPR 2 2.7429 4.0000 3.3714 .88893 18.TOICTAUG 3 9.2000 22.000 15.400 6.4094 19.EQUIPAUG 3 11.823 19.245 15.946 3.7786 20.TOTCURS 3 31.823 159.24 102.61 64.880 21.CAPCOSTS 3 0. , 6.3647 2.1216 3.6747 22.TOTANCST 3 15.000 22.000 17.522 3.8887 145 TABLE 5.6 DESCRIPTIVE MEASURES SOINTULA SEINERS VARIABLE N MINIMUM MAXIMUM MEAN STD DEV 1.CFV 13 3321.0 13 584. 8668.9 3566.6 2.LENGTH 15 40.000 65.000 53.400 7.8449 3. TON 15 8.0000 38.000 21.347 8.8822 4.TYPE 15 3.0000 3.0000 3.0000 5.CURRENTS 11 50.000 325.00 200.00 75.697 6.PASTS 7 7.0000 224.00 92.000 68.879 7.YEARSAGO 7 2.0000 32.000 10.286 9.8778 8.LICENCES 5 2.0000 2.6000 2.1200 .26833 9.EQDIPMNT 7 18.000 32.000 23.429 4.6853 10.REPAIRS 4 0. 15.000 5.7500 6.5000 11.REPLACE 7 0. , 75.000 19.757 31.467 12.FUEL 7 .90000 10.300 4.0714 3.0319 13.TOTCOSTS 7 4.0000 58.000 17.257 18.904 14. AGE 15 23.000 55.000 39. 800 1-1.296 15.INCOME 5 12.000 44.000 24.200 12.008 16.TOTINC 5 32.000 76.000 52.600 17.257 17.RATEAPPR 7 -19.500 30.000 11.487 16.240 18.TOTCTAUG 9 4.0000 58.000 17.710 16.690 19.EQUIPAUG 11 18.000 32.000 23.931 4.4277 20.TOTCURS 11 70.000 355.69 223.93 78.863 21.CAPCOSTS 11 0. 71.137 34.607 25.898 22.TOTANCST 9 6.9000 107.90 54.581 31.540 146 CHAPTER 6 ECOLOGICAL ANTHROPOLOGY 6.1. Introduction. In the previous chapters, the population and economic basis of the community were studied. The population unit of Malcolm Island was defined quantitatively. The age structure was spec i f i e d and the dynamics of chanqe analyzed i n terms of the key factor of miqration. In Chapter 5, the economy was the central concern. The survey data established that f i s h i n q was the p r i n c i p l e component of the economy. The f i n a n c i a l balance of costs and revenues i n the t r i p a r t i t e f l e e t was the object of the schedule of interviews. The analysis yielded a comparison of the p r o f i t r a t i o s of the three vessel types. The disaggregation of the costs and revenue of the mixed f l e e t provided a foundation for the simulation model developed in Chapter 7.,The q u a l i t a t i v e facets of the economy - labour organization, marketing, d i s t r i b u t i o n and land use - were studied i n the context of the s o c i a l network of the Island community. In t h i s chapter, the pattern of c u l t u r a l adaptation of Sointula, to the P a c i f i c maritime environment i s investigated. The t h e o r e t i c a l perspective i s that of ec o l o g i c a l anthropology, f i r s t established by Steward (1955). His goal was the delineation of the relat i o n s h i p between the d i s t r i b u t i o n and abundance of natural resources, and c u l t u r a l systems. Culture 147 was defined as the material assemblage, behavioral r e p e r t o i r e , and cognitive heritage of a human group (Harris 1972). The emphasis was placed on the integrative function of culture with regard to the l e v e l s of resource exploitation, the networks of exchange, and the h i e r a r c h i c a l systems of authority. Rappaport (1967, see Ch. 2 for a review) operationally refined the analysis to three e s s e n t i a l concepts: 1) The population unit defines the boundary of the subject of study; 2) The r e l a t i o n of the s o c i a l unit to the ecosystem i s delimited by the response surfaces of - a) the population parameters and b) economic production - to environment. 3) The application of human e f f o r t to natural resources i s subject to control through c u l t u r a l variables such as r i t u a l , r e l i g i o n or p o l i t i c a l structure. Recent quantitative research i n th i s f i e l d of ec o l o g i c a l anthropology has been directed to energy flow systems (Thomas 1972), demographic adaptation (Hard and Heiss 1976), spatio-temporal a c t i v i t y patterns (Usher 1972, Hatanabe 1977), niche dimensionality (Hardesty 1977, Smith 1974) and is l a n d biogeography (Terrel 1976). The aim of t h i s chapter i s an inquiry into the adaptive system of the maritime community. Two questions are addressed: 1) How are the parameters of population - a) reproductive rate; b) migration - affected by the maritime environment? 148 2) How i s the human organization structured f o r the regulation of the community's s o c i a l resources and the control of the region's natural resources? The perspective adopted i n the chapter stresses analysis at the l e v e l of the population unit and the rela t i o n s h i p s to the region's resources. In the f i r s t section, a test i s made of the hypothesis that d i f f e r e n t i a l rates of reproduction occur i n response to the seasonal pattern of f i s h i n g . Migration rates were shown i n chapter 4, to have a large annual variance over the l a s t two decades. . A c o r r e l a t i o n between the l e v e l of economic revenues derived from the harvests and the migration pattern was suggested from the demographic time s e r i e s . A further study of migration was carried out by means of a regional survey. This was used to test the difference i n attitudes toward l o c a l i t y between Sointula and other regional settlements. Lastly, the organizational structure of the v i l l a g e was studied with regard to the capacity to adapt to change. 6.2 Seasonality in Bi r t h Bates. The determinants of population among small-scale s o c i e t i e s has been a topic of recent research in ecol o g i c a l anthropology. In non-western cultures, population regulation through control of the reproductive rates, occurs by the methods of post-partum taboos, abortion, and i n f a n t i c i d e (Nag 1962). The impact of environmental constraints may be strong among an non-industrial population. Lee (1974), for example, shows that family size among the nomadic Bushmen i s lim i t e d by b i r t h spacing of several years. The cause i s the limited means for transporting infants 149 over the large distances involved i n the seasonal foraging patterns. Among peasant {Wolf 1967) communities, recent case studies have established a s i g n i f i c a n t c o r r e l a t i o n between seasonality i n b i r t h rates and variations in the workload. Spencer and Hum {1977) and Hum, Lohdell, and Spencer {1977) use cor r e l a t i o n and spectral analysis to i d e n t i f y peak l e v e l s i n the b i r t h rates in r e l a t i o n to seasonal workloads. Demographic studies s p e c i f i c to f i s h i n g populations have not been extensively carried out. However, L e s l i e {1972} fi n d s that a periodic model, with a freguency at a seasonal periods, provided the best f i t f o r the b i r t h rates in a Caribbean f i s h i n g community. The hypothesis of seasonal differences in b i r t h rates w i l l be assessed for Sointula. The data base i s the school records of one hundred and thirty-nine dates of b i r t h , from 1960-1970. The ordered b i r t h dates formed a time series which was analysed for the presence of a seasonal component.,The data was processed to generate a uniform time scale, measured i n the number of days, from the e a r l i e s t year i n the record., In order to carry out spectral analysis, the condition of stationary or weak autocorrelation i n the time series i s necessary. A stationary time series has no systematic trend or periodic component to the mean or variance {Chatfield 1976, Jenkins and Watt 1968). The f i r s t procedure was to test the hypothesis of a l i n e a r trend i n the number of b i r t h s with time. A l i n e a r regression with the number of births as the dependent variable and time as the independent variable was not s i g n i f i c a n t . Autocorrelation c o e f f i c i e n t s were calculated for one to f i v e years lags, and 150 Mere non-significant with the highest values at the one and two year lags. The spectrum function was computed for aggregated yearly data. I t allows the examination of the proportion of variance re s u l t i n g at any frequency band, to the t o t a l variance. The spectrum F(H) i s the Fourier transforms of the covariance function L(K) such that: f(W) = 1/Pi* (L to) +2*sum*L (k) *cos(wk)) where w" = the .-frequency K = the time lag The spectrum shown in Figure 6.1 shows a peak at a period of .249 of a year or at a quarterly cycle. The histogram of the Figure 6.1 SPECTfiAL ANALYSIS OF BIBTH DATES ABSOLUTE TIME RANGE= 365 PERIOD . 0 .08330 .16660 • .24990 .33320 + * .41650 + * .4S980 + * .27350-12 .63552 1.2710 DENSITY .31776 .95328 1. 5888 number of b i r t h s , by guarter, i s shown in Figure 6.2. Peak b i r t h rates occur in the t h i r d guarter, bracketed against a sharp decline i n the fourth guarter. By comparison, the a c t i v i t y cycle of f i s h i n g i n Sointula i s shown i n figure 6.3. The peak i n the birth rates i n the t h i r d guarter corresponds to the off-season, low workload, i n the fourth guarter. Okraru {1975) compared family s i z e among fi s h i n g and non-Figure 6.2 151 HISTOGBAM OF BIBTH DATES INTERVAL # OF DAYS (EACH X= 2) 1.0000 120.67 240.33 360.00 23 40 53 23 •XXXXXXXXXXXX • x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x +XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX •XXXXXXXXXXXX TOTAL 139 (INTEBVAL HIDTH= 119.67) Figure 6.3 Seasonal 8ork Cycle Fe br u ar y - H arch March-June June-October: November-January: Herring season Halibut season Peak f i s h i n g season Off-season f i s h i n g families i n two Nova Scotian communities. Fishing families showed a s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t , smaller family s i z e compared to non-fishing f a m i l i e s . Okraru postulates that the separation brought about by the time-use patterns i n f i s h i n g , as well as, the r i s k factor are the reasons f o r the smaller family s i z e . In Sointula, the peak and off-season discontinuity i n the l o c a l f i s h i n g economy i s suggested as generating a seasonal pattern in b i r t h rates, Non-uniform reproductive rates over the year may also be hypothesized as associated with a depression i n the average growth rate, given the length of gestation i n man..* * The b i r t h rate in Sointula would be predicted as either elevated or depressed, depending on the choice of t h e o r e t i c a l perspective. A recent study i n sociobiology (Beinrich 1977) focuses on the aspect of uncertainty i n income and environmental hazard. I t predicts that a lowered b i r t h rate i s a consequence of uncertainty i n the income stream., Recent studies i n demographic economics (Schultz 1973) have focused on the value of the parent's time. One empirical index i s the wage rate and the low employment opportunities for women i n Sointula would suggest an elevated b i r t h rate., 152 6.3 Social factors i n migration. , Migration theory has emphasized the importance of the context of economic opportunity (Shaw 1975). Non-economic factors promoting r e s i d e n t i a l s t a b i l i t y have been stressed by Uhlenberg (1972). In t h i s section the s o c i a l parameters affe c t i n g migrants w i l l be assessed for a) emigration and b) immigration. , 6.3.1 A Regional Survey of Mobility Plans 6.3.1a Aims A basic question that entered into many of the aspects of the study centered around migration. Does the i s l a n d which i s sharply defined geographically, also have socio-economic and c u l t u r a l boundaries, that make the population a unit d i s t i n c t from others i n the northern Vancouver Island region? An important indicator of the unique factors i n the community was the attitudes of young people toward their place of residence. In the course of the i n i t i a l interviews, ambiguous and often c o n f l i c t i n g opinions were apparent in the attitudes of young people toward the is l a n d community and the i r decision to remain or leave. In order to i s o l a t e the unigue factors operative i n Sointula, a survey that was regional i n scope was carried out. The North Island Secondary School was surveyed to c o l l e c t data both from students of Sointula and of the surrounding towns. 6.3.1b Method The questionnaire i s shown i n f i g . 6.4. I t was designed i n three parts. The f i r s t part i d e n t i f i e s the student by grade and place of residence. Ten l o c a l i t i e s were serviced by the school. FIG. 6-4 NORTH ISLAND CAREER SURVEY F i l l i n g o u t t h i s q u e s t i o n n a i r e w i l l h e l p w i t h a s t u d y o f N o r t h I s l a n d c o m m u n i t i e s b e i n g c a r r i e d out. a t t h e U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a . P l e a s e r e a d t h e q u e s t i o n s and show y o u r answer b y u n d e r l i n i n g one of t h e f o l l o w i n g words o r numbers. Do n o t w r i t e y o u r name on t h e q u e s t i o n n a i r e . 1. What g r a d e a r e you i n ? 8 9 10 11 12 2. Sex: H a l e Female 3 0 Where do you l i v e ? P o r t Hardy P o r t M c N e i l P o r t A l i c e S o i n t u l a A l e r t Bay N i m p k i s h Woss T e l e g r a p h Cove K o k i s h W i n t e r H a r b o u r VCR 4« Number o f p e o p l e l i v i n g i n y o u r home ( b e s i d e s y o u r s e l f ) ; 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 o r more 5. Number o f b r o t h e r s and s i s t e r s : 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 o r more 6. How many o f y o u r b r o t h e r s and s i s t e r s a r e i n s c h o o l ? 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 o r more 7. F a t h e r s o c c u p a t i o n : F i s h i n g L o g g i n g S e r v i c e s - t o u r i s m , m o t e l - r e s t a u r a n t T r a n s p o r t a t i o n , m e c h a n i c O f f i c e o r s t o r e T e a c h e r , d o c t o r , l a w y e r , e n g i n e e r O t h e r 0, What w o u l d y o u l i k e t o do a f t e r you l e a v e s e c o n d a r y s c h o o l ? F i s h i n g L o g g i n g O f f i c e o r s t o r e S e r v i c e s - t o u r i s m , m o t e l , r e s t a u r a n t M e c h a n i c , t r a n s p o r t a t i o n H o u s e w i f e Go t o c o l l e g e , - t e c h n i c a l s c h o o l o r u n i v e r s Don't know ..None o f t h e above 9, Where w o u l d y o u l i k e t o l i v e a f t e r you l e a v e s e c o n d a r y s c h o o l ? Same town as now fe'lsewhere on V a n c o u v e r I s l a n d V a n c o u v e r Hone o f t h e above 153 including logging and mining towns. The second part asks the demographic and s o c i a l background guestions - s i z e of family, number of s i b l i n g s , parent's occupation. The l a s t section asks the student's occupational goal and the preference of future residence. No personal i d e n t i f i c a t i o n was required. The survey was conducted on June 15, 1977. The questionnaires were di s t r i b u t e d by teachers i n the classroom the instructions printed on top were read out to the class. Ten minutes was the time that was a l l o t e d for f i l l i n g out the form. 6.3.1c Results Three hundred and thirteen forms were returned. The number of returns from Sointula students was twenty-nine or 9.3% fo the t o t a l sample. Table 6.1 {at the end of the chapter) shows the t o t a l percentage response for each guestion. Histograms for the integer variables showed no large deviations from a normal shape. T-tests for the differences between two strata - 1) a l l towns but Sointula and 2) Sointula - were run. The results i n table 6,2 show that there were no s i g n i f i c a n t differences i n family s i z e {var,6) but that Sointula families had s i g n i f i c a n t l y fewer children attending school and that those who were in school tended to be in the e a r l i e r grades. The mean family s i z e i n Sointula was 5.2 and the same elsewhere., The number of s i b l i n g s {brothers or sist e r s ) in school was 1.2 i n Sointula compared with 1.7 elsewhere. Among Island communities other than Sointula, fishermen compose 7.4% of the head of households with children i n high school, while loggers compose 40,1%. Career choices lean heavily 154 toward further education. More than one t h i r d (37.7$) of a l l students have marked th i s choice. In Sointula, 40.7$ of the student's parents are fishermen, 22.2$ are loggers, 33.3$ other and 3.7$ teachers. Fishing as an occupation takes 20.7% of the career choices, while dont know takes 31$ and other 17.2% and further education only 10.3$. The responses of a l l children of fishermen i s compared to that for a l l other occupations i n table 6.3. The returns show that a s i g n i f i c a n t l y higher proportion choose f i s h i n g as an occupation. The answers of students from Sointula for the remaining guestions was tested against those from the other l o c a l i t i e s . The career goals of Sointula students compared to a l l other towns combined showed that more chose f i s h i n g as a career goal and proportionately fewer chose to go on to higher education. The results on l o c a t i o n a l preference were reported i n chapter 4. The l o c a t i o n a l choice variable shows the i n t e r e s t i n g result that percent-wise, s i g n i f i c a n t l y more Sointula students chose "same place as now" and fewer the "elsewhere on Vancouver Island" or "Vancouver" than students from other north Island communities (table 6.7 and 4.11)., A guestion which arises i s - what aspects of Sointula makes children's preferences for remaining higher than elsewhere? Is i t because there i s a higher percent of fishermen, the size and/or the i s o l a t i o n of the community, c u l t u r a l factors or a product of the in t e r a c t i o n of these? A series of tests was carried out to try to i s o l a t e some of the most important factors. Comparison of the responses on l o c a t i o n a l preference from children of a l l occupational groups versus fishermen i s 155 shown i n table 6.4. The r e s u l t s suggest that the children of fi s h i n g families as a group do show a d i f f e r e n t preference for location than those from f a m i l i e s engaged i n other occupations. There were proportionately, s i g n i f i c a n t l y more chosing 'same as now1 for their future residence. A two way table of Sointula students grouped into those whose fathers are fishermen and those whose fathers had another occupation i s shown i n table 6.5. The contingency table r e s u l t s support the n u l l hypothesis that there are no differences between these two groups of students i n terms of their choice of residence. Table 6.6 tests Sointula against other small unincorporated municipalities. These are primarily logging communities. A s i g n i f i c a n t difference exists between the answers to the question #9 on location. Fewer than expected say they plan to stay i n the small logging towns, while more than expected say they w i l l stay i n Sointula. By sex, the differences in the leave/stay decision do not reach a l e v e l of s t a t i s t i c a l significance {X2 with p=.11) i n the Sointula sub-sample. For the t o t a l sample, there was a s i g n i f i c a n t tendency (X 2 at p=.03) for g i r l s to indicate a plan to leave more than boys. This may be a result of their higher average l e v e l of educational attainment and desire for future education, as well as the more limited job market f o r women i n the primary industries. Sointula i s taken out of the data base and the two largest communities of Port Hardy and Port McNeill are tested against a l l others. The r e s u l t s show no s i g n i f i c a n t differences i n 156 preferences for location (table 6.8). The Sointula responses of leave/stay were broken down by grade and no s i g n i f i c a n t differences i n the mobility preferences could be found. In addition, no s i g n i f i c a n t differences f o r a l l areas by grade could be found. l a s t l y , HANQVA (multivariate analysis of variance) was performed to test whether there were s i g n i f i c a n t differences between the school classrooms i n t h e i r answers. The n u l l hypothesis of eguality between means was confirmed (p=.363).No s i g n i f i c a n t differences between the class means was found to exist by t h i s analysis. 6.3.Id Conclusions The lower percentage of Sointula boys in the upper grades compared with g i r l s confirms informant's and teacher's statments that the drop-out rate i s and has always been i n the past, very high for t h i s group. The reason given i s that f i s h i n g i s an economically and s o c i a l l y a t t r a c t i v e occupation to enter before completing high school. The lack of courses i n marine-related a c t i v i t i e s i n the curriculum and the inconvenience of commuting by ferry are further reasons that are given. Vancouver or Vancouver Island does not strongly a t t r a c t Sointula students. However 37.9% indicated a preference to stay i n Sointula and 51.7% to move elsewhere than the places l i s t e d . There i s a s i g n i f i c a n t attachment of Sointula students to t h e i r home town: 37.9% versus 19.8% for other north Island communities. A plausible explanation can be constructed from the battery of tests that were applied, though the small population sample makes firm conclusions from the survey d i f f i c u l t . 157 Sointula students want to stay or i f they do leave, to go beyond the B.C. coastal area. The preference for staying i s not simply due to the higher proportion of fishermen, though contingency analysis suggested that t h i s i s f a c t o r alone i s an s i g n i f i c a n t explanatory variable i n a l l communities combined. Nor i s the sedentary preference caused by the factor of small s i z e and/or i s o l a t i o n because students from these types of communities generally have stronger preferences to leave, than do those i n Port Hardy or Port McNeill. The a c c e p t a b i l i t y of location i n Sointula, i t may be conjectured, i s due to an i n t e r a c t i o n between the high proportion of fishermen and the r e l a t i v e ease of access to the services in Port McNeill. An acceptance of the opportunities available to non-college graduates i s indicated by a low percent wanting higher education and t h i s i n turn may r e f l e c t the greater extent that status i s derived from achievement within the f i s h i n g occupation, compared to the work in the logging sector. A c u l t u r a l preference for Sointula can also be reasonably suggested, but was not measured by the questionnaire. The high percent of Sointula students wanting to go beyond Vancouver Island or Vancouver after high school may in part be due to a desire to t r a v e l for a period of time a f t e r graduation. A recent high school graduate stressed the value to him of t r a v e l as a broadening experience and the l i f e h i s t o r i e s of a number of fishermen suggests that periods of l i v i n g off the island may be common., Eecent studies (Fox and F l e i s i n g 1977) suggest that peer groups formed among youths i n small,closely knit settlements. 158 may have low rates of in-marriage..These studies suggest the importance of mobility for spouse selection in such small population units such as Sointula. 6.3.2 The Integration of Immigrants Recent immigrants into Sointula showed a d i s t i n c t s p a t i a l pattern of d i f f e r e n t i a t i o n . Residence was established p r e f e r e n t i a l l y i n the furthest o u t s k i r t s of town - Kaleva Boad and Mitchel Bay. The age pyramid for t h i s region. Figure 4.21, shows an age structure different from that of the central town. The age group 25-35 shows a sharp peak, r e f l e c t i n g the majority composition of young adults, among the migrant sector. Migrants who had arrived a decade or more before the survey resided i n the closer region of Rough Bay and i n the v i l l a g e center i t s e l f . The integration of r u r a l migrants has been the subject of recent -quantitative research by Rieger and Beagle (1974). On a sample of receptor communities of a range of s i z e s , the rate of integration, i n terms of s o c i a l involvement was measured. Social involvement was indicated by p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n formal organization and informal a c t i v i t i e s , A convex r e l a t i o n was demonstrated for the percentage affirmative answers on p a r t i c i p a t i o n measured against the length of residence. An assymptote for integration was reached at three or four years, with a faster rate holding for the smaller communities. In Sointula the integration of immigrants proceeds over a period of several years. Currently, the average r e s i d e n t i a l length i s 18 years, a factor which sharply distinguishes i t from the nearby logging and mining communities having high turnover 159 rates (Knight 1975). Internal d i f f e r e n t i a t i o n , i n terms of informal community organizations, and formal committees, had been p a r t i c u l a r l y high i n Sointula, i n previous decades (Appendix 1). The s o c i a l concomitants of r e s i d e n t i a l cohesion i n terms of the organizational structure and responses to change w i l l be the subject of investigation in the next section. 6.4 Maritime Community: An Adaptive Perspective 6.4.1 Introduction Sointula has persisted and grown as a f i s h i n g community for over half a century. The goal of t h i s section i s to outline the organizational features of Sointula that embued i t with the capacity f o r survival and to evaluate the s o c i a l resources available for future development..The method was to i d e n t i f y the e s s e n t i a l c u l t u r a l adaptations to the maritime environment by making reference to comparative studies conducted i n ether f i s h i n g areas (Chapter 1). Three basic levels of organization (Steward 1955) were distinguished: 1) f a m i l i a l and household; 2) informal associations; 3) formal committees. The perspective was dynamic and oriented toward assessing the capacity of the system to operate under perturbations, by using the available h i s t o r i c a l information. Present conditions have accelerated the exertion of regulatory control by and contact with personnel from metropolitan centers. The research was guided toward examining the function of the formal organizations active i n the planning of developmental change. 160 6.4.2 F a m i l i a l Level The minimum viable population i s o l a t e has been t h e o r e t i c a l l y studied by Dyke (1971,73) through computer simulation. The r e s u l t of stochastic experiments suggest a lower bound on population s i z e f o r long term v i a b i l i t y i s several hundred. The l i m i t i n g factor was the r e s t r i c t e d pool of marriage partners at low population s i z e . Though population i n Sointula i s not an i s o l a t e d unit, available h i s t o r i c a l data does suggests that, since 1910, i t has remained at a s i z e of at least two hundred. Coastal populations below t h i s figure were c l a s s i f i e d by S i n c l a i r (1970) as hamlets. Given resource fluctuations and small s i z e e f f e c t s , the persistence of the minimum sized communities i s tenuous, unless they are maintained by outside agencies as i n forestry or f i s h i n g camps (Knight 1975) . V a r i a b i l i t y impinged on Sointula through the vagaries of the natural resources, perturbations i n age-sex r a t i o s , occupational mobility and migration, entrepreneurship and technical,economic and c u l t u r a l change. A basic structure within the population was generated by formation of f a m i l i a l and household units (Fox 1968). In Sointula, three c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of households that were t y p i c a l of other small f i s h i n g communities, were discovered: 1) A pattern of primogenture i n the inheritance of land and vessels existed among long term f i s h i n g families (Blehr 1963). The necessary accumulation of savings f o r the purchase of the larger f i s h i n g vessels i s considerable. The inheritance of the family boat by the eldest son helps to insure the continuity of the 161 f i s h i n g occupation..Sointula's fishing f l e e t i s noted as having a high degree of self-ownership of vessels. The more than half-dozen multi-generation f i s h i n g f a milies i n the community have supported t h i s capacity for independent ownership. 2) Networks of r e l a t i v e s function i n the gathering of information (Anderson 1972) and i n the organization of f i s h i n g crews ( S t i l e s 1972, Breton 1973). 3) The work history of men (see Appendix 1 for a l i f e history case study) exhibits the importance of occupational pluralism. Opportunities i n regional employment - p a r t i c u l a r l y logging - function as important income sources during poor years i n f i s h i n g . Mobility, information networks, and occupational pluralism were an important adaptive framework for the formation family and household units. S i l v e r t (1977) has emphasized these capacities, which have great u t i l i t y i n changeable circumstances, as the basis of the r e s i l i e n c e of east coast f i s h i n g communities., The p a r t i t i o n i n g of the population into f a m i l i a l units i s a ubiguitous phenomena in human cultures.,In Sointula, the kinship groups are molded to function within the maritime niche. The adaptive features were the inheritance pattern, the use of kinship networks to span economic, s p a t i a l and informational distances, and the absorptive capacity of household unit., A comprehensive study of kinship and marriage from the perspective of s o c i a l anthropology and psychology, was beyond the scope of the study. In the following section, the focus i s shifted to the 162 p u b l i c a l l y i d e n t i f i e d groups within the v i l l a g e . 6.4.3 Informal and Formal Associations The array of public associations does not as c l e a r l y have a b i o s c c i a l o r i g i n as do families {Wilson 1975). Steming from Durkheim, the roots of cohesion in human associations have been an important question i n twentieth century s o c i a l science. Functionalists (Smelser 1976) has sought to describe the morphology and physiology of society. Bappaport has recently argued (1977) that e c o l o g i c a l models expand the scope of f u n c t i o n a l i s t explanation by seeking to i d e n t i f y causal linkages to b i o l o g i c a l parameters. The examination of s o c i a l groups i n Sointula yielded information relevant to understanding the legitimated poles of consolidation and the discordant stresses af f e c t i n g the society. In order to assess the significance of these associations, i n a resource perspective, a tabulation of the numbers and types was f i r s t c arried out. The description of the particular associations within Sointula involved a discussion of the relationships to resource u t i l i z a t i o n . The potential role of s o c i a l organization i n integrating v a r i a b l i t y and change w i l l be brought into sharper contrast when the alternatives that the community i s facing are examined through simulation modeling. Informal associations (table 6.9) i n Sointula are an important means of mobilizing and organizing s o c i a l resources. They provide recreational and service functions, and are a locus for the inception of new forms of community p a r t i c i p a t i o n , such as the salmon day f e s t i v a l . TABLE 6. 9 Informal Associations 163 Group Lions Club Becreation Assoc, Somen's Auxiliary Membership Fishermen, Loggers Businessmen Hives of Besidents aives of Onion Members Aim s o c i a l events, fund r a i s i n g l o c a l museum, day care, artsficrafts Salmon Day f a i r The informal groups are l e v e l i n g mechanisms that provide an opportunity for r e d i s t r i b u t i o n ( Loomis and Beagle 1975:ch4). Examples of conspicuous contributions to the common weal are Lions club fund r a i s i n g f o r an old age home, and the contributions of labour and f i s h to Salmon Day. Integration, by voluntary associations, however, i s threatened by the d i v i s i v e factors of 1) economic s t r a t i f i c a t i o n and 2) f a c t i o n a l disputes. The Lorenz curve. Figure 6.4 (derived from chapter 5, page 44) shows the r e l a t i v e eguality i n the di s t r i b u t i o n of incomes i n Sointula. .Deviation from the diagonal Figure 6.4 Lorenz Curve 100 . * * % of income . * . 0 100 % of population i s an index of ineq u a l i t y . The r a t i o of average incomes between the highest and lowest segments i s 5:1. Though class 164 d i s t i n c t i o n s are not c l e a r l y defined as was the case i n a Danish f i s h i n g v i l l a g e examined by Anderson and Anderson (1965) , income d i f f e r e n t i a l s were of s u f f i c i e n t magnitude to indicate the existence of a small group of f i n a n c i a l l y and p o l i t i c a l l y important families. The f a c t i o n a l disputes i n Sointula are based on differences of long h i s t o r i c a l standing. The strongest f a c t i o n a l d i v i s i o n s are; A) pro/anti a l c o h o l i c consumption. The o r i g i n a l colony was started with the Finnish Temperance union. , B) p o l i t i c a l orientations that are correlated with the p a r t i c u l a r h i s t o r i c a l circumstances of during di f f e r e n t periods of migration from Finland (see appendix 1), .. C) the central v i l l a g e residents versus the residents in the fringe. Membership in f a c t i o n a l groups cross-cut economic and r e s i d e n t i a l a f f i l i a t i o n s , so that a simple b i f u r c a t i o n of the population did not exist. The informal associations provided a bridging mechanism, for the f a c t i o n a l c o n f l i c t s . ,A forum for public expression i n development issues and for decision-making necessitated the existence of several more formally organized committees. The four formal committees i n Sointula are l i s t e d i n Table 6.10. The f i r s t two groups have had a recent genesis i n the wake of p o l i c i e s encouraging public p a r t i c i p a t i o n , such as the environmental assessment l e g i s l a t i o n . The Chum salmon committee 165 Table 6, 10 Formal Organizations Name Membership Aims 1} Chum Salmon Management Committee Fishermen Chum Salmon Regulation 2) Malcolm Island Advisory Planning Committee Fishermen Teacher Carpenter Land Use Planning 3) Coop Board Long term residents Executive Coop Board tUFAIU l o c a l Crewmen, g i l l n e t and combination boat owners (described i n more d e t a i l i n Appendix 2) was established by the Fisheries Department i n response to a c o n f l i c t s i t u a t i o n i n the area #12 fishery. The f a l l chum run had produced some of the biggest catches i n the end of season period. High expectations held by fishermen i n 1975, were i n discord with estimations of stock s i z e by the management agency. Boats from many l o c a l concentrated i n area 12 i n the f a l l , and a meeting of fishermen held to protest closures for stock conservation, led to threats of disobediance of the regulations. In response, a proposal was f i e l d e d by the Department to establish an executive body to which fishermen would be appointed. An open-seas confrontation was thereby avoided. The representatives to the management committee were selected from the leading fishermen i n the coastal communities. Achieved status by top li n e fishermen had a high p r o f i l e among the fishermen. The acceptance of the committee appointment by the leading captains, along with the pan-regional character of the issue, lead to a high degree of concensus with the public par t i c i p a t i o n format. The Malcolm Island Advisory Planning Committee (MIAPL) i s 166 composed of f i v e elected representatives and i t makes recommendations on zoning and on broader issues in development planning, to the Regional Board. The committee i s divided into two groups - 1) those wishing to reserve a " r u r a l way of l i f e " ; 2) those wishing progress through growth. Faich and Gale (1971) suggest that residents i n primary industry towns view the natural environment i n u t i l i t a r i a n terms. Consistent with t h i s suggestion was the observation that i n Sointula, the most vocal support for the anti-development position i s among recent immigrants from urban, or suburban l o c a l i t i e s . Two additional factors, however, have garnered support on the committee, f o r opposition to rapid development: 1) the high income l e v e l s among seine owners. Buttel and F l i n n (1977) show i n a regional survey that environmental concern i s s i g n i f i c a n t l y correlated with ruralism, for upper-income groups; 2) a rapid pace of development threatens community cohesion. The r e l a t i v e l y high proportion of students wishing to remain, the high r e s i d e n t i a l cohesion, and the ethnic history suggest the occurence of a s i g n i f i c a n t non-economic component of residence (Dhlenberg 1972). The community id e n t i t y i s altered by high rates of immigration. The response pattern to massive immigration i s indicated by the behavior changes among v i l l a g e residents during the i n f l u x iDn the early 1970*s. Finnish weddings were closed to the public for the f i r s t time and a stronger concern for law enforcement expressed. The threat of further l o s s of the Finnish 167 character i n Sointula resulted in a reaction i n the form of an affirmation of the ethnic boundaries.. Comparing the two committees (the t h i r d and fourth are examined i n Chapter 5), suggests both s i m i l a r i t i e s and differences. The f i s h i n g committee i s devoted to a single issue and works in close l i a s o n with the resource agency. I t does provide a forum for the communication of opinions generated i n the regional outports, (Fisheries management, unlike agriculture, does not have a separate extention service through which technical information, f i n a n c i a l regulation and other l i a s c n services are located.) The planning committee i s not cccupationally based, and i s more loosely a f f i l i a t e d with the central planning authority. Second order interactions (rates of growth, expectations) can be suggested as most s i g n i f i c a n t i n influencing preferences toward land use, f i s h e r i e s a l l o c a t i o n s and community i d e n t i t y . The common factor between the committees may be the the strategy of u t i l i z i n g l o c a l v a r i a b i l i t y , (or generating i t ) to probe the capacities of the regional resources and the responses of centralized resource management agencies..As such, the f i s h i n g v i l l a g e exhibits at a micro-level the dynamic pattern of adaptive management (Holling et a l 1978), that i s being designed for resource p o l i c i e s . 6.5 Summary Sointula has survived as a f i s h i n g v i l l a g e since the beginning of t h i s century, c h a r a c t e r i s t i c a l l y maintaining a high degree of i n t e r n a l s o c i a l differentiation./The close linkage to 168 the marine resource base i s indicated i n the seasonal demographic va r i a t i o n i n the b i r t h rates. Local a f f i l i a t i o n was shown by the s i g n i f i c a n t l y higher preferences f o r stable l o c a l i t y shown by students. S o c i a l correlates of r e s i d e n t i a l s t a b i l i t y were found i n the development of kinship networks and informal and formal organizations. The organizational development i n the past was established to provide services to a highly remote community. With the current increased pace of development and incursion of metropolitan c o n t r o l , t r a d i t i o n a l organizations are required to interface with outside agencies and regulatory p o l i c i e s . Planning the options f o r the future of the community demands a synthesis of the research on the demographic, economic and s o c i a l components together with an impact analysis of a range of contingencies, i n the exogenous variables. The simulation model, formulated i n the following chapter provides t h i s multivariate data base, together with indi c a t o r s of community cohesion. 169 Table 6.1 One Hay Table of Questionnaire answers 1. grade 8 9 10 11 12 n=3V3 50 44 45 111 63 % 16 14 14 36 20 2. sex f m n=312 170 142 % 55 45 3. residence a l e r t Holb. Kok. I Him. p . a l i c . P.Hardy P.HcN. n=313 12 7 15 10 35 51 123 % 4 2 5 3 11 16 39 Soint. T.C. VCB Hoss W.Har Zebal. 29 6 3 16 1 5 % 9 2 1 5 .3 1.6 4. fam.size 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 or more n=313 5 28 71 94 77 16 11 4 4 3 5? 2 9 23 30 25 5 4 1 1 1 5. s i b l i n g s 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 n=311 5 58 86 81 36 21 8 10 4 1 1 % 2 19 28 26 12 7 2 3 1 .3 .3 6. sibs i n sch. 0 1 2 3 4 5 7 9 n=310 61 86 91 51 14 4 1 2 % 20 28 29 17 5 1 .3 .3 7.fa. occupation f i s h log oth. of f . s er v tran. trade n=309 23 124 88 10 7 21 36 % 7 40 28 3 2 7 12 8. occ. pref. , dont f i s h sch. hse. log oth. o f f . serv, t r d . n=313 78 8 118 8 18 42 13 2 25 % 25 3 38 3 6 13 4 1 8 9. pref. location Van.I. other same Vancouver n=313 70 139 67 37 % 22 44 21 12 10. class 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 n=313 14 16 22 11 18 21 19 9 9 10 29 27 11 12 13 14 15 16 16 17 23 18 17 18 170 Table 6.2 T. te s t s . Sointula versus a l l other towns variable a l l others Sointula T si g 1. grade mean 10.4 9.7 2.7 .0 08* n 284 29 4. fam. mean 4.2 4.2 .000 .99 size n 284 29 5. sibs mean 2.9 2.9 .12 .90 n 282 29 6. i n sch.mean 1.7 1.2 2.2 .03* n 281 29 Table 6.3 Contingency Table Children cf fishermen versus a l l others children of: other occupations fishermen occupational choice: dont 71 6 expected 71 6 f i s h 2 6 expected 7 1 sch. 111 6 expected 108 9 hse. 7 1 expected 7 1 log 17 0 expected 16 1 oth. 39 2 expected 38 3 OFF . ,. 11 2 expected 12 1 serv. 3 0 expected 3 0 trade 25 0 expected 23 2 chi sguare 59.4 s i g .0000* Table 6.4 Contingency Table Children of fishermen versus a l l others Locational preference location choice: children of: other occupations fishermen Van. Is. 67 2 expected 63 6 other 124 14 expected 126 12 same as now 56 11 expected 61 6 Vancouver 35 0 expected 32 3 chi sguare 11.6 s i g .0089* Table 6.5 Contingency Table Fathers are fishermen versus other occupation in Sointula only., children of: other occupations fishermen location choice: Van. Is. 0 2 expected 1 1 other 9 5 expected 8 6 same as now 7 4 expected 7 4 Vancouver 0 0 expected 0 0 chi sguare 3. 14 s i g .20 172 Table 6.6 Contingency Table Sointula versus a l l other communities l o c a t i o n a l preference childre n from: small towns Sointula location choice: Van. Is. 26 2 expected 19 9 other 18 15 expected 23 10 same as now 12 11 expected 16 7 Vancouver 7 1 expected 5 3 ch i square 14.8 s i g .001* Table 6.7 Contingency Table Sointula versus other areas Locational preference children of: a l l others Sointula location choice: Leave 228 56 expected 223 61 Stay 18 11 expected 23 6 ch i sguare 5.18 s i g .023* Table 6.8 Contingency Table Port i f c N e i l l versus other areas Locational preference children of: Port McNeill location choice: Leave 84 expected 79 Stay 134 expected 139 chi sguare 2.98 s 174 CHAPTER 7 A Model of the S o c i a l System Part I: S p e c i f i c a t i o n , Validation and S e n s i t i t i v i t y Analysis 7.1 Introduction The f i s h i n g v i l l a g e of Sointula has been empirically studied, i n the preceeding chapters, through the d i s c i p l i n e s of demography, economics, anthropology, and sociology. In t h i s chapter, the findings are summarized i n terms of mathematical equations and an integrated model of the community i s developed. The analysis i s c a r r i e d out by computer simulation. The simulation model synthesizes the multiple perspectives, from which the community has been studied. The model i s u t i l i z e d , i n the following chapter, to investigate the dynamics of economic and demographic change and f o r s o c i a l impact assessment. 7.2 Organization of the Model The organization of the model i s shown i n the following chart: ( f i g . 7 . 1 ) . Beginning with population, the age d i s t r i b u t i o n defines the s t r u c t u r a l parameters, while b i r t h , death, and migration are the v i t a l rate parameters. The natural resource, f i s h , i s modelled as a a l i n e a r function of time plus a random component drawn from a normal d i s t r i b u t i o n . The economic sector i s based on 1 7 4 a F i g u r e 7.1 A F l o w C h a r t o f t h e M o d e l MIGRATION POPULATION EMPLOYMENT, INCOME REGULATORY AGENCY INVESTMENT SAVINGS EXPECTAT ION FORMATION 175 three types of f i s h i n g boats. Rate parameters consist of catches, costs, and the resultant net revenues. , Vessel market values are a function of expectations formed on the basis of l a s t year's returns. The employment created by each boat i s given by a fixed m u l t i p l i e r . The emigration and immigration factors are s p e c i f i e d separately. The basic concept of the migration function i s that i t i s the outcome of decision-making based on i n d i v i d u a l maximizing c r i t e r i a . The main opportunities are from employment and income l e v e l s in l o c a l f i s h i n g , ft non-economic component enters as the value attached to continued residence i n the same l o c a l i t y . 7.3 Specification of Components The primary data sources for the s p e c i f i c a t i o n of the model were the empirical f i e l d investigations supplemented by documentary material. The e f f e c t of variance in the parameters was checked by s e n s i t i v i t y analysis and the v a l i d i t y was determined by u t i l i z i n g h i s t o r i c a l data. The structure of the population was represented by three age grades: 0-15, 16-50 and greater than 50 years of age. The age structure was broken down to correspond to the p r i n c i p l e migration and v i t a l rate groups, subject to the constraints of aggregation of age groups i n census data. E g u i l i b r a t i o n of sex r a t i o s occurred through marriages outside the community and subsequent migration of spouses. Birth rate (B) was fixed at the current l e v e l cf 25/1000 for the North Island but adjusted to the l e v e l of the adult population. Mortality rates were set at 176 current regional le v e l s of 5/1000. The migration rates were a complex function of current wage rates and r e s i d e n t i a l s t a b i l i t y . The basic form of the migration function was based on the assumption of maximizing of potential economic return. The current wage rate times the unemployment rate was used as an index of expected opportunities (Shaw 1S75). The income e l a s t i c i t y for migration - the change i n migration rate for a unit change i n average f i s h i n g income - was set as the parameter k. An exponential function was chosen to capture the element of diminishing marginal rates of migration with increases i n income: migration rate = income**k k<1.0 { The mathematical symbols used are * for m u l t i p l i c a t i o n and ** for exponentiation.) Figure 7.2 shows the shape of the migration function for a range of values of k. Figure 7.2 Relation between migration rate and incomes migration rate {no. of people/yr.} k=1* * k=.5 * * # * * * k=.3 * * * * * average f i s h i n g income {$) One measure of income e l a s t i c i t y was derived from the economic interviews (Chapter 5): 1/6 of those responding said that a 505? decrease would cause them to leave the fis h e r y . 177 S e n s i t i v i t y analysis, described below, was carried out on values of the k parameter,The lower range of incomes was set at minimal subsistence l e v e l s of $1000 annual income. The migration rate was egual to the sum of the two component functions, immigration and emigration., The s p e c i f i c immigration rate was egual to a current wage rate multiplied by a lagged function of the employment rate. Emigration was a function of the unemployment rate divided by the current wage rate and multiplied by an additional factor, the r e s i d e n t i a l s t a b i l i t y . Residential s t a b i l i t y - the average length of residence i n the community - was measured i n the household survey (see Figure 4.20). Residential s t a b i l i t y was given by a c l a s s i f i c a t i o n of people into a three grade structure - 0-5, 5-15, >15 years of residence. Migrants from the community were drawn f i r s t from those people with shortest residence in the community. While the migration e l a s t i c i t y with respect to length of residence i n the community, was not measured, the general properties of t h i s r e l a t i o n were ascertained. That residence i n Sointula was regarded as p o s i t i v e l y valued, was suggested by the results of the high school survey (Ch.6). A s i g n i f i c a n t l y higher proportion of respondents from Sointula preferred continued residence i n t h e i r home town, than did respondents from other North Island communities. The neighbouring logging town of Port McNeill had a lower r e s i d e n t i a l s t a b i l i t y , having t r i p l e d i n population i n the l a s t ten years. Currently, the turnover rate in service industries was estimated by l o c a l businessmen as 80-90% per year. Sointula, by contrast, was characterized by households which on average had been resident i n the community 178 for 17 years. These observations suggested that residence in Sointula was a valued p o s i t i v e l y , however, diminishing returns might be expected to hold f o r increasing residence time. A lower l i m i t , at which the community structure i s changed, occurs when turnover i s high and residence i s t r a n s i t o r y . Such a community, as a forestry or fishing camp (Ch3), i s t y p o l o g i c a l l y d i f f e r e n t than a v i l l a g e . A function which s a t i s f i e s the c r i t e r i o n of diminishing returns and a positive lower l i m i t i s a log function and t h i s was chosen for the e l a s t i c i t y of migration to r e s i d e n t i a l s t a b i l i t y . Summarizing the discussion, migration i s regulated by the following eguations: EM - 01 *(c/AVFI**k)*d/log(BES) IM = E *( (AVFI**k)/c) M = EM + IM where EM=emigration rate (persons/year) IM=immigration rate M=net migrationrate UI=unemployment rate AVFX=average fis h i n g income! $) BES^residential s t a b i l i t y (years) E=employment rate (%) C,D=constants A lag structure was introducted to represent the time delay in the d i f f u s i o n cf information concerning l o c a l opportunities 179 to potential immigrants. Expectation formation was defined as a weighted average of incomes i n the past two years. The discount rate was set at a l e v e l of the i n t e r e s t rate for household borrowing (15%). S e n s i t i v i t y analysis was carried out on the e f f e c t of introducing a time lag into the net migration rate. The gross catch by year and vessel type i s calculated from the average net incomes during the period of data c o l l e c t i o n , 1977. Other aspects of b i o l o g i c a l management such as changing species composition and area regulation were considered exogenous to the model. The boat e f f i c i e n c i e s are dependent on changing cost fa c t o r s , as a res u l t of the age of the boats, and on v a r i a b i l i t y in aggregate catches for the f l e e t from year to year. In mathematical notation, the general form of the r e l a t i o n s h i p i s : CAT = G*H*NA where CAT = gross catch/boat type G = r e l a t i v e s i z e of catch at time t, to t=0 H = average gross catch/boat type NA = number of boats, type=A Boat type i s taken as a categorical variable having three l e v e l s , one for each of the main types of vessels. Costs were calculated by year type for annual operating and c a p i t a l expenses. Fixed r a t i o s of boat value to cost components, over time, were assumed for each boat type. Ef f o r t per boat was assumed to be at a maximal l e v e l , in the competitive f i s h e r y , so that costs i n f u e l and replacement were constant given the age and composition of the f l e e t . Boats are a c a p i t a l stock, modelled i n terms of two age grades: 0-7 years and 7-30 years. 180 In Chapter 5, i t was noted that c a p i t a l costs were repaid after seven years on average, while no boats,in t h e i r o r i g i n a l h u l l s , older than 30 years were found. In the model, therefore, a l l boats reaching the age of t h i r t y are eliminated. Net revenue of boats are calculated frcm the accounting r e l a t i o n : Net Revenue = CAT - OP - CAP Where CAT = t o t a l catch f o r boats of type i , at time t CP = operating costs f o r boat type i , at time t CAP = c a p i t a l costs, for boat type i , age j at time t The labour share was calculated for the crews of boats by the standard 7/11 share system (Section 5.6). 7/11ths of the catch, net of operating expenses, goes to the f i v e men of the crew (including the skipper/owner). ,4/11ths to the owner of the boat, alone. A further direct bonus payment, of an average 20%, i s made d i r e c t l y to the owner. Employment i s generated by the fixed m u l t i p l i e r s for each boat type. The market value of the vessel i s a function of the current value of expected future revenues. The licence and vessel market values are calculated separately, i n i t i a l i z e d by 1977 data. The per ton, licence value captures the market e f f e c t of demand generated price changes. The vessel value i s separate and i s kept constant under the assumption that an i n f i n i t e l y e l a s t i c supply of boats from the ship yards i s available. Recent research on the B.C. f l e e t (Sfilen 1977) has shown that expectation formation can be modelled as a one year lagged, autoregressive r e l a t i o n . This means that changes i n value are 181 d i r e c t l y proportional to the change i n the aggregate catch i n the previous year. Savings are calculated at a base rate of 5% for the lowest income group.. The savings portion of the .family budget i s increased as a l i n e a r function of income - with a higher income, a greater proportion i s budgeted as disposable funds.>Investment i s calculated f o r the owners of each gear type and for the seine crew, who are included i n the gillnet-owners income bracket. Two investment models were compared - the f i r s t one involved s a t i s f i c i n g behaviour (Simon 1959) i n which investment was made in the boat type already owned and the other model was that of a maximizer of economic e f f i c i e n c y . The maximizer invests according to the cost e f f i c i e n c i e s of each type and the schedule of i n t e r e s t rates available to him for borrowing the necessary c a p i t a l . Experiments with the model involved twenty year simulations. The program (see appendix 5) was written in FOBTBAN, and input/output was controlled by the SIMCON system. Graphic and numerical tables were produced as output and s t a t i s t i c a l analysis was then carried out on t h i s data, 7.4 Validation The v a l i d i t y of the model was tested i n two ways -backcasting on h i s t o r i c a l information (Pindyck and Eubinfeld 1976:Chapter 11) and s e n s i t i v i t y analysis (Patten 1971). The f i r s t source of validation i s the performance of the model i n i t i a l i z e d at h i s t o r i c a l values. H i s t o r i c a l data were drawn from the following sources - Department of Fish e r i e s area 182 s t a t i s t i c s . Census Canada, and from Anderson (1967) who l i s t s f l e e t s i z e by gear type and aggregate value i n 1961. Demographic data specifying age grades i s available from 1961 from the Canada census, at f i v e i n t e r v a l s . Annual f i s h catch i n area #12 i s available from 1948. Size of f l e e t and value i s available from f i e l d survey of 1977. The f i r s t v a l i d a t i o n t r i a l was c a r r i e d out i n order to assess the e f f e c t of i n i t i a l age grades on model predictions and the a b i l i t y of the demographic sub-system to compute h i s t o r i c a l changes. Migration rates from the school data (Section 4.3) were u t i l i z e d in the f i r s t v a l i d i t y test. Birth and mortality rates were i n i t i a l i z e d at 1961 regional levels and annual rates l i n e a r l y interpolated between 1961 and 1971 values. Age grades from the 1961 census i n i t i a l i z e d the demographic state variables. Dsing the results of the high school career survey, a preference for outmigration was expressed by high school graduates. Age grade decomposition, however,was available from the census only f o r 10 year aggregates (ie. 5-15, 15-25). The proportion of grade 12 students i n the adult age group was calculated for three census periods. Marginal differences were found i n the r a t i o s . In the model, a cumulative migration rate of high school graduates was set at a annual rate of 70%. A small retirement migration was indicated i n 1966-1976. Given the areal mortality rates (chapter 4) and t h e i r age s p e c i f i c d i s t r i b u t i o n (Keyfitz and Fleiger 1971) an excess of a r e t i r e d aged people appeared to exist i n Sointula. v As a r e s u l t an independent retirement in-migration rate was s p e c i f i e d i n the 183 validation t r i a l s . The r e s u l t i n g population trajectory that i s forecast by the model i s shown i n Figure 7.3. The v e r t i c a l axis i s drawn to have a maximum height at the peak value of the variable that i s being plotted. The magnitude of the maximum value i s written at the top of the figure. The actual census figures are indicated at four points, with f i v e year i n t e r v a l s separating them. A decline i n population i n the mid-1960's i s tracked by the model, along with a r i s e i n 1970's. However, the model overestimates population i n the former and underestimates i n the l a t t e r . The res u l t s of the validation for age grades ( f i g . 7.4) show the greatest discrepancy occurring as an underestimate of the 15-50 year group. The migration rates for t h i s segment were based on analysis of the records for school age populations (section 4.2). An underestimate of the size of migration by f a i l i n g to account for non-family movements, i s suggested., The predicted trends i n the f l e e t size and composition are shown i n f i g . 7.5# compare well with h i s t o r i c a l data points. ,? The second validation was designed to focus on testing the migration sub-model alone. It did not make use of the measured migration rates.,Bather the sub-model calculated migration based on incomes resu l t i n g from h i s t o r i c a l area #12 catches for the period 1956-1976, along with interacting e f f e c t s from demographic autocorrelation, employment rate, and r e s i d e n t i a l structure. The res u l t i n g trajectory f o r population i s shown i n Figure 7.6 (model 1). Adult in-migration i s underestimated i n the 1970's and an autocorrelation i n migration i s introduced. As th i s was a short term e f f e c t i t could not be tested against FIG. 7.3 SIMULATION FROM 1961, POPUL ATI0N S i MULATED --OBSERVED © 7 2 0 T o i -< _ i ZD 0_ o 0_ 3 6 0 t © x © B6\ 1966 1971 1976 2 6 0 -o 3 o 130 I 7.4 SIMULATION FROM 1961; AGE GROUPS simulated observed in census 0-15 b 16-50 © over 5 0 — A FIG. 7.5 SIMULATION OF V E S S E L S simulated real seine combination giMnet — — — 50 uj 25 © F I G . 7.6 S IMULATED POPULATION WITH INCOME EFFECTS ON MIGRATION model 2 300-r y ^ model 2 ' \ o 3 0 - 1 © O T a. 4 50-1 cens us v a l u e s © 1961 1966 — — i — 1971 — i — !976 00 184 census data. While quantitative data on short-term migration were unavailable, a pattern of temporary migration i n career p r o f i l e s was recorded i n several f i e l d interviews (Chapters 6 and 7). For t h i s reason, the model retained the s t r u c t u r a l relations between em/immigration and r e s i d e n t i a l s t a b i l i t y resulting i n the autocorrelative process. Declining catches in the early 1960*s resulted i n a r e l a t i v e decline in the population, however absolute population size in 1966 was overestimated. The response i n employment to declining catch, was not as great as implied by the s i g n i f i c a n t regression of migration on aggregate catch, found i n Chapter 4. The i n i t i a l increase i n population was a r e s u l t of the employment rate calculated from data i n Anderson (1967) which may be subject to errors. Cost figures i n fi s h i n g at this time are also unavailable so that income projections were made on the 1977 cost structure. In addition to the uncertainties i n h i s t o r i c a l economic data, external events to the community were l i k e l y to influence migration behaviour on the past. P r o v i n c i a l unemployment rates, i n p a r t i c u l a r , are suggested as a factor i n the itigration decisions. The f i v e year averages f o r prov i n c i a l unemployment i n t h i s period are: 19 57-61: 7.4% 1962-66: 5.4% 1967-71: 6. 1% 1972-75: 7. 1% The declining p r o v i n c i a l unemployment i n the early 1960*s, would be expected i n terms of the behaviour of an income maxifflizer, to draw people out of the community. Given the 185 maximizing model, the pr o v i n c i a l unemployment rate may be suggested as an additional variable in explaining h i s t o r i c a l migration patterns. External employment rates were not incorporated i n subsequent simulation experiments f o r the reason that the examination of policy instruments a f f e c t i n g macro-economic variables was beyond the scope of the study. External regulatory p o l i c i e s i n the f i s h e r i e s and s o c i a l welfare agencies were the focus. These were investigated by observing the ef f e c t s of a range of p o l i c i e s on the l o c a l community Four data points were available for h i s t o r i c a l validation on population and for points on f l e e t s i z e s . , a mean sguare deviation of predicted values from actual values could not be calculated because of the small sample of h i s t o r i c a l data available. Q u a l i t a t i v e l y , the model captured some cf the trends over t h i s period without any large discrepancies. 7.5 S e n s i t i v i t y analysis S e n s i t i v i t y analysis was conducted i n order to estimate the eff e c t s of uncertainty i n measurements. The aim of s e n s i t i v i t y analysis i s to define the effect on output variables of spe c i f i e d parameter changes (Patten 1971)..Sensitivity may refer to the output response to parameter changes near the estimated mean values as well as responses to a wide range of values in parameters. The technique of s e n s i t i v i t y analysis i n current econometric simulations (Naylor 1971, Pindyck and Eubinfeld 1976) i s graphic analysis of time paths of state variables for a range of parameter values. An additional index of s e n s i t i v i t y has been u t i l i z e d i n thi s study. Formally, the numerical 186 s e n s i t i v i t y index (U) of a model variable (y) for parameter (k) i s equal to: U - dy(i)/dK where y(i) = F(x,k) and d = the range of uncertainty i n k..,. The s e n s i t i v i t y 0 i s estimated by i t e r a t i v e runs on a range of values of the test parameter (k) and the resulting end point values of test variables, y ( i ) , observed. The values selected for (k) were drawn from a prior probability d i s t r i b u t i o n . The di s t r i b u t i o n was normal with the estimate of k being the mean. Numbers were selected within a range of two standard deviations. The r a t i o : S, D. {y (i)) /S.D. (k) was taken as an estimate of the s e n s i t i v i t y index U, The empirical estimate of K was derived form the schedule of interviews c a r r i e d out with fishermen i n Sointula (Section 5.2). The guestion was asked - "What would you do i n the event of a drop i n average catch of 50%". In response, about twenty percent of the interviewees said that they would be seriously affected. Bankruptcy and loss of a fishing vessel could be expected to contribute to emigration. The parameter characterizing the relationship between change i n income and migration i s the index of income e l a s t i c i t y f or migration. Given the assumption of a logarithmic r e l a t i o n , the interview data suggests a value of k at . 3 (k=log (. 5) /log (.8)). Income d i f f e r e n t i a l s and net migration for i n t e r p r o v i n c i a l migration i n Canada have been analysed by multiple regression (flclnnis 1969). A s i g n i f i c a n t positive r e l a t i o n was found for 187 the macro-demographic data base of the 1961 Canada Census. I d e n t i f i c a t i o n , through ordinary least sguares regression of s i g n i f i c a n t independent variables for i n t r a - p r o v i n c i a l migration, was not ,however, obtained by Stone (1969) . The explanation offered was the greater importance of diverse non-economic factors i n the shorter distance, within province migrations. In Sointula, annual migration rates were available i n the data base,but, a time series for income l e v e l s was unavailable. A s i g n i f i c a n t regression between out-migration and declining catches was found. This re s u l t along with the interview information on the importance of employment opportunities i n migration decisions, suggested an important economic determinant to migration. The e f f e c t of the uncertainty i n the s p e c i f i c a t i o n of k was examined by s e n s i t i v i t y tests. Table 7.1 shows the re s u l t s of t h i s analysis., Table 7.1 S e n s i t i v i t y Analysis 1. K 2. POPULATION 3. MIGRANTS/YR. 4. RES.TIME 5. VESSELS 2. POPULATION 3. MIGRANTS/YR. 4. RES.TIME 5. VESSELS MINIMUM .089034 856.56 -11.861 15.481 100.36 SENSITIVITY 1.67 .65 .036 .0 MAXIMUM .60563 857.37 -11.579 15.498 100.36 MEAN .34475 857.00 -11.743 15.488 100.36 S.D. .15233 .25394 .09904 .00552 The variation about the mean of k was drawn from a normal 188 d i s t r i b u t i o n with a standard deviation of .15, by a computer-generated, random function. & c h a r a c t e r i s t i c of the normal d i s t r i b u t i o n i s that 67% of the variation i s contained within one standard deviation about the mean and 99% of the variation i s contained within two standard deviations. The r e s u l t i n g S.d. of the variables population, r e s i d e n t i a l time, and number of vessels was measured after twenty years of the simulation. The r a t i o , S.D. (output v a r i a b l e ) / S.D. (K), was taken as a measure of the s e n s i t i v i t y . The index assumes that the output variables would have a normal d i s t r i b u t i o n . The d i s t r i b u t i o n of K was s l i g h t l y skewed at i t s lower value due to the lower l i m i t being set equal to zero. This may have affected the measure i f the output variables were p a r t i c u l a r l y sensitive or i n s e n s i t i v e at low l e v e l s of K. Normality i n the output variables would not generally be expected from the non-linear model, however inspection of the histograms of the variables did not show any large deviation from normality. D i s c o n t i n i t i e s i n the model, which would be the aim of wider ranged s e n s i t i v i t y t ests, may be i d e n t i f i e d in plots of the time t r a j e c t o r i e s . The s e n s i t i v i t y analysis shows that population i s most sensitive to v a r i a t i o n i n K. The population had a mean of 857.0 and a standard deviation of .25. The 99% confidence i n t e r v a l was +/- .5 . This was i n response to a mean value of k equal to .35 with a 99% confidence i n t e r v a l of ••/- 0.3. The number of vessels did not change with k, because investment was not a function of the income e l a s t i c i t y for migration. The s e n s i t i v i t y of population to k did not appear large enough to seriously comprimise the v a l i d i t y of the simulation., 189 A second type of s e n s i t i v i t y analysis that was c a r r i e d out was concerned with change i n the functional relationships., The e f f e c t of introducing a lag i n the immigration was investigated. Migration was modelled as a function of potential incomes and non-economic factors of r e s i d e n t i a l attractiveness and s o c i a l cohesion indexed by the average period of residence, l o c a l inhabitants, i t was postulated, would be the f i r s t to be affected by changes i n incomes from the regional f i s h i n g , while potential outside migrants would respond less rapidly. To test the ef f e c t of introducing a lag i n t h i s way into the migration, two models were compared; the f i r s t with a one year l a g , and the second without any lag. The two models were run on the validation data, 1961-1976. The effect of the lag i s to bias the estimate upward. Visual inspection of the time path, Figure 7.6 suggests that the i n i t i a l response cf model 1 (with lag) i s greater than f o r model 2 (without a lag). However, model 1 shows continued fl u c t u a t i o n in the terminal years. F i e l d information suggested the prevalence of short-term migration i n l i f e h i s t o r i e s (appendix 1) and t h i s was the primary basis on which lag structure was retained in the model. The damping of large scale perturbations, uncharacteristic of the available population trends (Chapter 4), was the second reason. The t h i r d s e n s i t i v i t y experiment focused on the investment sub-model. Investment was channeled into the l o c a l f i s h i n g industry through the purchase of boats. The investment c r i t e r i o n for the i n d i v i d u a l owner was the rate of return to c a p i t a l , as indexed by economic e f f i c i e n c y . Two patterns of investment 190 behavior were compared. The f i r s t was that of investment i n the type of boat already owned, a mode of behavior that could be termed as " s a t i s f i c i n g " {Simon 1961). The second was investment decision based on a maximizing c r i t e r i o n . The decision rule was based on two factors - the economic e f f i c i e n c y and the market rate available to the investor for the amount of c a p i t a l to be borrowed. A 3x3 matrix derived from interview with bank managers, s p e c i f i e d the market rates available to the three income groups, for each of the three types of vessels (table 7.2) the c r e d i t managers placed a pa r t i c u l a r emphasis was placed on the lower rate available for combination vessels. The reason given was the lowered r i s k , because of the lessened annual variation in catch among vessels with multiple gear. Table 7.2 Borrowing Bates investment i n boat type: s c gn s 10% 8% 8% owner of: c 12% 8% 8% gn 13% 9% 8% An experiment was designed to test the e f f e c t of the two types of investment behavior on the state variables of the model. Two sets of 15-year simulations were run on the h i s t o r i c a l period 1961. The f i r s t incorporated the s a t i s f i c i n g , the second the maximizing sub-system. The r e s u l t s are shown i n table 7.3. The maximizing model yielded estimates f o r the f l e e t size 191 Table 7.3 Test of Two Investment Models Variable Mean Value model 1 (max) model 2 (sat.) t population no. seines 964.8 16.5 41.0 41.9 2.74 122. 8 959.0 16.6 52.4 26.2 2.89 165.7 .926 .969 no. combination no. gn per capita income Var. income . 800 .389 .045 * .009** and composition closer to the actual values for g i l l n e t t e r s i n 1976. I t best captured the changing c a p i t a l structure of diminishing small-scale vessels and therefore was incorporated into the f i n a l model. 7.6 Conclusions The model was s p e c i f i e d by data gathered i n the f i e l d and by corroborative documentation. The v a l i d i t y of the specified variables and relationships was tested by backcasting- beginning at a h i s t o r i c a l point and examining the estimates of the model for the succeeding years. The predictions of the model are made annually, from the starting date of 19 61. H i s t o r i c a l data f o r population were available at f i v e year i n t e r v a l s and for the f i s h i n g f l e e t i n 1977. Although there was i n s u f f i c i e n t data f o r a s t a t i s t i c a l t e s t of closeness of f i t , the realism of the model i s shown by the degree to which h i s t o r i c a l points are tracked. In the next chapter, the dynamic behaviour of the model w i l l be examined in d e t a i l , and experimental analysis w i l l be used to study the contingencies i n resources and regulation, that the community faces. 192 CHAPTER 8 A Model of the Social System Part I I : Experiments and Applications. 8.1 Introduction In t h i s chapter, the model developed i n chapter 7 i s used to conduct simulation experiments designed to analyze the micro-scale s o c i a l system of Sointula. The implications to the community of a broad range of contingencies i n external variables are investigated. I t s responses to change i n exogenous variables provide a basis f o r probing the processes of development of the coastal v i l l a g e . The questions to which t h i s chapter i s addressed are: 1) What are the implications to Sointula of a range of p o l i c i e s that may be adopted by regulatory agencies? 2) How does the community q u a l i t a t i v e l y change under the experimental conditions and more generally, what are the dynamics underlying i t s development? 3) What are the options i n planning community development? The chapter f i r s t investigates the effects on the community caused by changing catches of f i s h and d i f f e r i n g rates of investment. A range of values for these rate parameters are the 193 experimental treatments. The processes of growth or decline under t h i s contingency set i s the focus of the experiment. The robustness of the model to changes i n eco l o g i c a l and economic functions i s investigated by simulation experiments i n the subsequent section. .. In f i n a l section, the model i s used to assess the f e a s i b i l i t y of an income s t a b i l i z a t i o n program for the l o c a l fishermen. 8.2 The e f f e c t s of changing harvests and numbers of f i s h i n g vessels 8.2.1 Background to current problems i n l o c a l regulation The p r i n c i p a l source of employment for the people of Sointula i s f i s h i n g . Two of the main regulatory instruments are the focus of t h i s section. The f i r s t i s management of the b i o l o g i c a l resource. Increases of stocks are the objective of the current Salmonid Enhancement Program (Canada:Fisheries Service 1977). Concurrently, the r i s k of diminishing salmon stocks e x i s t s because of the destruction of spawning streams through logging, mining, and other i n d u s t r i a l a c t i v i t y , as s e l l as, through declining ocean s u r v i v a l . (Peterman 1977, Halters 1975). The second regulatory instrument c o n t r o l l i n g the f i s h e r y of Sointula, i s through economic control. The economic theory of the fishery (summarized i n Chapter 5) emphasizes the over-investment that has occurred as a result of the open access character of the system. The aim cf the r e s t r i c t e d entry program in B r i t i s h Columbia was to reduce investment i n the p r o v i n c i a l fishery ( S i n c l a i r 1960, Pearse 1972, M i t c h e l l 1977). In i t s 194 i n i t i a l phase, beginning in 1966, a program of licencing of vessels was carried out. Two categories were assigned: "A" f o r vessels used by f u l l - t i m e fishermen and "B" for those with l e s s than a $1000,00 i n annual landings. "B" licences were to be terminated i n seven years. Because of the replacement of cider vessels by newer and higher capacity ones, the licences were l a t e r attached to the vessel*s tonnage. The numbers of vessels decreased from 7,000 to less than 5,000 i n 1976, primarily from the diminishment of the numbers of small g i l l n e t t e r s (Mitchell 1977). At the same time, t o t a l c a p i t a l investment increased (Eraser 1976, Wilen 1977) and the licencing program i s currently under review. , 8.2.2 Method of Study The intervention of resource management was p r i n c i p a l l y directed through two instruments, control of the abundance of f i s h and over the applicaiton of fishing e f f o r t . The implications to Sointula of a range of values of these two important parameters were investigated through simulation experiments. Along the axis of b i o l o g i c a l management the extreme values were: 1) at the maximum, a rate of increase in stocks, such that a doubling occurs i n twenty years (+5%/yr). 2) at the minimum, a rate of decrease i n stocks, such that a decrease of one-half occurs i n twenty years (-2.5%/yr). Four intermediary values were chosen at equally spaced i n t e r v a l s between the extremes {-1$,5%,*2%,+3.555). ? Three simplifying 195 assumptions sere made with regard to these contingencies i n the abundance of the marine resource. These were: 1) Growth i n the community's f l e e t of f i s h i n g vessels would not be of s u f f i c i e n t magnitude to have an e f f e c t on the increments in stocks. ; 2) The standard deviation of the annual harvests were set at a constant l e v e l , egual to 0.15 which was chosen with reference to average regional l e v e l s of v a r i a t i o n . (Alternative p o s s i b i l i t i e s were that: a) increases i n stocks through technological enhancement would increase the annual variance (Peterman 1975) and c) resource management p o l i c i e s would be designed to reduce the annual variation (Halters 1975). 3) A single species system was assumed. Many types of economic regulation such as vessel l i c e n c i n g , gear r e s t r i c t i o n s , buy-back programs and changing investment opportunities may affect the rate at which new vessels enter the l o c a l f l e e t (Crutchfield and Pontecorvo 1969, Scott 1962, Pearse 1972). The analysis of each of these: p o l i c i e s was beyond the scope of the study and a focus was placed on the parameter of the rate of investment. A range of values f o r the investment rate of Sointula fishermen i n new vessels was chosen for study. The maximum l e v e l of investment was 100% of l o c a l savings being invested i n new f i s h i n g vessels and the minimum of 0%. Four intermediate values were chosen at egual i n t e r v a l s : 20%, UQ%, 60%, 80% of community savings. (The savings were modeled as a c r e d i t union containing a l l of the community's savings and investment a l l o c a t i o n s were made according to the maximizing c r i t e r i o n and the i n t e r e s t rates s p e c i f i e d i n chapter 7.) This 196 mode of investigating economic regulation collapsed i n t o a single m u l t i p l i e r value the conseguences of d i f f e r i n g regulations while focusing on the effects of reducing or increasing the numbers of vessels. Sp e c i f i c simplifying economic assumptions were: 1) A d e t a i l model of the alternative investment opportunities in other enterprises, and of preferences f o r household consumption goods, was not s p e c i f i e d . 2) The catch capacity of each type of vessel remains constant over time. 3) Licences of f i s h i n g vessels are a l i m i t i n g factor. Their i n i t i a l values are set at 1977 l e v e l s , specified i n Chapter 5. The licence values change i n direct proportion to catch l e v e l s in the past f i s h i n g year. 4) The supply of vessels for Sointula i s i n f i n i t e l y e l a s t i c . Their price does not increase with increased catches and the conseguent higher demand by l o c a l fishermen. The demand for vessels from the B.C. Fleet as a whole, i s assumed to be constant. To summarize the assumptions, the model i s tested against functions c o n t r o l l i n g resource enhancement or depletion and investment i n l o c a l f i s h i n g vessels. Changes i n t o t a l harvests are assumed not to be of s u f f i c i e n t size to a f f e c t subsequent stocks. Catch capacity of vessel types i s fixed and increased prices occur only for the vessel licences. The price of f i s h i s constant. The robustness of t h i s model i s tested i n subsequent sections by embedding the features of changing boat prices, apart from licences, and of stock e f f e c t s from incremented 197 l e v e l s of f i s h catch. , The procedure of experimentation involved an i t e r a t i v e simulation of combinations of l e v e l s along the range of the two regulatory axes. Six values for the rate of resource= change and for investment were scheduled for studies. Therefore, t h i r t y - s i x separate input conditions were sp e c i f i e d for the model. The time horizon was set as twenty years. Since a stochastic component entered into the f i s h catches between years, f i v e Monte Carlo simulations (using d i f f e r i n g random time series) were run for each regulatory vector and an average value of the output variables computed. The experimental design involved a t o t a l number of t h i r t y - s i x simulations each of which was an average of f i v e Monte Carlo runs, 8.2.3 Results The values of twenty model variables at the twentieth year of the simulation were recorded, Cartesian coordinates were drawn with the axies representing the l e v e l s of implementation of the regulatory instruments. The horizontal axis was the rate of increase i n the f i s h harvest and the v e r t i c a l axis was the percentage of savings reinvested, , A nomogram was generated by a computer program which plotted i s o c l i n e s by li n e a r i n t e r p o l a t i o n between the points (Peterman 1977). One nomogram was plotted f o r each of the index variables. Twenty socioeconomic variables were plotted i n the f i r s t experiment and the nomograms were arranged in a a rectangular grid. Figure 8.1 shows the resulting composite diagram. A steep change i s indicated when the l i n e s are close together and a f l a t gradient i s indicated when l i n e s 198 are far apart. The variables were, reading from the bottom l e f t corner, upwards: 1) Total harvest (millions of $) 2) Total net Fishing Revenue (millions of $) 3) Per Capita Income (1000 $) 4) Household Income (1000 $) 5) Per Capita Income for Fishing (1000 $) 6) Standard Deviation Between Fishing Incomes 7) Ratio of the Returns to Investment/Returns to Labour 8) Migration Rate (% of adults per year) 9) Costs of Migration (10,000 $) This i s a measure of the relocation and adjustment costs i n r u r a l to urban migration and i s set egual to: migration rate by household x one-half of the current annual income l e v e l , (see Brown and Neuberger 1976, on the costs of dis l o c a t i o n i n r u r a l to urban migration). 10) Population size (1000) 11) Dependency r a t i o : adults/dependents and r e t i r e d people. 12) Average length of residence i n the community, for households, (years) 13) Number of seiners 14) Number of combination vessels 15) Number of g i l l n e t t e r s 16) Ratio: c a p i t a l investment/number of people employed (1000 $) 199 17) Average e f f i c i e n c y : net revenues/costs for a l l vessels 18) Total employment (10) 19) Employment rate (%) 20) Total value of vessels. , (millions of $) A l l of the variables, but two, were measured at the endpcint of year 20. The exceptions were the migration rate and costs of migration which, because of high variance, were taken as averages of the l a s t three years. The simulations can be used to analyze the dynamics of development of the community under the three dozen regulatory policy sets that are applied. Examine f i r s t the graph for t o t a l harvest (var, 1). A maximum l e v e l for the t o t a l harvest, occurs as expected, at the upper right hand corner (U.R.C.) of figure 8.1 where rates of reinvestment and increases i n stocks are highest. The minimum value occurs in the lower l e f t hand corner (L.L.C.). Per capita income shows a sim i l a r pattern of maxima and ninima to the t o t a l harvest. The migration rate (var. 8) shows a po s i t i v e maximum at the U.R.C and a negative minimum toward the L.L.C region. The topography of length of residence (var. 12) i s the reverse, with a minimum at the U.R.C. Employment rate (var.19) shows a di f f e r e n t pattern. A positive maximum occurs at the U.R.C. but a negative minimum occurs at high rates of investment for near stationary stocks of b i o l o g i c a l resources. The greatest unemployment may occur not at maximum rates of decline i n stocks. Under the declining stocks scenarios, the migration rates respond to the consistent trend i n harvest and population lev e l s are adjusted to the l e v e l s of FIG. 8.1 SIMULATIONS AT YEAR TWENTY HOUSEHOLD INCOMEUOOO*) MIGRATION RATE (; ADULTS/TERR] RV. LENGTH OF RESIDENCE I YEARS J CAPITAL/LABOUR RATIO TOTAL VALUE OF VESSELSU0E6H -.025 -.01 .005 .02 .035 .05 PER CAPITA INC0MEUO00»), -.025 -.01 .005 .02 .035 .05 RRTIO (RETURNS TO CAPITAL/LABOUR I -.025 -.01 .005 .02 .035 .05 DEPENDENCY RATIO -.025 -.01 .005 .02 .035 .05 TOTRL FISHING INCOME 110E6*I .025 -.01 .005 .02 .035 .05 S.D. OF FISHING INCOnE IjUUJ I -.025 -.01 .005 .02 . 035 . 05 POPULATION (X1000) -.025 -.01 .005 .02 .035 .05 TOTAL HARVEST 110E6I] .025 -.01 .005 .02 .035 .05 PER CAPITA INCONE FOR FISHING .025 -.01 .005 . 02 . 035 .05 COST OF MIGRATJONUOOOOOII -.025 -.01 .005 .02 .035 .05 NUMBER OF GILLNETTERS -.025 -.01 .005 . 02 . 035 .05 NUMBER OF COMBINATION .01 .005 . 02 . 035 .05 NUMBER OF SEINERS -1 .8 .6 A • — 16. .2 0 -.025 -.01 .005 .02 .035 .05 EMPLOYMENT RATEIJJ -.025 -.01 .005 .02 .035 .05 EMPLOYMENT 1X101 1 -.025 -.01 .005 .02 .035 .05 ECONOMIC EFFICIENCYCREVENUE/COSTS I i .025 -.01 .005 . 02 . 035 . 05 -.025 -.01 .005 . 02 . 035 . 05 -.025 -.01 .005 . 02 . 035 . 05 -.025 -.01 .005 . 02 . 035 . 05 E C O L O G I C A L R E G U L A T I O N (ANNUAL R A T E OF I N C R E A S E I N H A R V E S T ) -.025 - .01 .005 .02 .035 .05 200 economic opportunity. The gradients of the response surface can be used to provide additional information. The gradient i s the p a r t i a l derivative or the rate of change of the function with one variable, while the others are held constant. An estimate cf i t can be made by examining the steepness of the surface along a direction p a r a l l e l to one of the axes. For population (var.10) the gradient along the axis of rate of investment i s steeper than along that f o r eco l o g i c a l regulation. Population i s a function of migration and v i t a l rates. Migration, i n turn, depends on employment and income l e v e l s . The rate of growth of the population responds with a deviation amplifying e f f e c t to the creation of employment i n the i n i t i a l years. People are attracted by expectations of employment and i n the future make a further contribution to the population through the b i r t h rate., The gradient for per capita income (var.3), along the axis of ecological regulation, i s steeper than i s the gradient for the t o t a l harvest variable (var.1). The reason for thi s i s indicated i n the nomogram for population (Var. 10). Low revenues are coincident with lower populations and thus per capita income i s dependent on harvest for these regions. Population i s at a maximum at the 0.R.C. and the gradient of population i s steeper here along the investment axis than along the harvest increase axis. Thus the r a t i o of population to t o t a l income that forms the variable per capita income i s weighted at high l e v e l s so that i t becomes a function primarily of harvests. Population i n f l u x dissipates a large part of the increased revenues from investments. 201 8.2.4 A Typology of Change How can the multivariate patterns of the nomograms be interpreted? The i n i t i a l step i s to ask what taxonomic categories cf communities are being generated. The exogenous variables were set at values spaced at equal i n t e r v a l s . I t might be expected that the outcomes for the model variables would also be uniform. This i s not the case as shown by the non-uniform gradients of most of the variables., S i m i l a r l y , i n multidimensional variable space, c l u s t e r s of points may be distinguishable. A basis for a taxonomy of the coastal f i s h i n g v i l l a g e of B.C. was s t a t i s t i c a l l y analyzed i n Chapter 3. Recall that f i v e discriminating variables were suggested by S i n c l a i r (1971); population, income, percent primary employment, percent f i s h i n g , percent Indian. S t a t i s t i c a l analysis suggested that three categories could be supported by the data base: hamlet or camp, v i l l a g e , and town, The simulation model provides values for the variables population and income, (While socioeconomic indicators are also a part of the model, they are not the same as the remaining three variables of the regional data base.) Cluster analysis was carried out on the data points f o r the population and per capita income variables. The cluster analysis separates points i n multivariate space into groups whose average distance apart i s maximized (Cooley and Lohnes 1972). The unweighted, single-linkage, Euclidean space algorithm was used. This algorithm builds up groups by a step-wise procedure such that a new point i s added to a group by the c r i t e r i o n of minimum Euclidean distance to the group mean. The r e s u l t s of the c l u s t e r FIGURE 8.2 CLASSIFICATION OF SCENARIOS 202 analysis on the t h i r t y - s i x , two dimensional vectors i s shown i n Figure 8.2. Group membership i s indicated by the numeral 1,2 or 3 and i s superimposed on the nomogram fo r population. An interpretation of these three types of communities can be b u i l t up from the information provided i n the eighteen ether nomograms. Type 1 i s a rapidly growing community with a maximum both for population and for per capita income. Residential s t a b i l i t y in t h i s community i s low because of the high rate of immigration. The dependency r a t i o i s the lowest because of the employment opportunities and high incomes, attra c t i n g many young adults to the work force. Type 2 has intermediate population l e v e l s and per capita incomes. The gradient of change for per capita income i s steepest along the resource axis and type 2 communities can be separated into two wings (A and B). The f i r s t with high investment and moderate resource growth has a s l i g h t l y higher population and a lesser per capita income. The second wing with moderate investment and high resource growth has a s l i g h t l y lower population and s i g n i f i c a n t l y higher per capita income. The implications of t h i s dichotomy w i l l be analyzed further below. Since population has the sharpest gradient, i t s e f f e c t on the location of taxonomic boundaries was most pronounced. The remaining category, #3, i s distinguished through most of i t s range by a low population. In the region of the l e f t half of the graph, resources are declining and incomes are at very low lev e l s . The population i s aging and the dependency r a t i o and average length of residence i s high. A low degree of variance exists between the incomes of the d i f f e r i n g types of fishermen. 203 The population does not however, f a l l below f i v e hundred at any point; indicators computed for remaining residents point to a high degree of l o c a l attachment. This community scenario i l l u s t r a t e s the symptoms of a declining resource region. Such declining communities reguire proportionally large expenditures on i n f r a s t r u c t u r e such as roads and f e r r i e s despite a meagre tax base and may be a costly burden to regional governments (Scott 1965). For the zone having high investments but near-stationary stocks, vessels operate at the lowest margin of p r o f i t a b i l i t y . Randomly occurring down years i n the fis h e r y r e s u l t i n bankruptcies. The small but r e s i d e n t i a l l y stable population cannot respond f l e x i b l y to changed opportunities and high unemployment results. F i n a l l y , there i s a high income region for the low population community. Restricted investment i n boats does not provide the employment base for a growth i n population. However, incomes for the remaining fishermen are at a maximum l e v e l . The p r o f i t r a t i o for the older type of vessel that characterize t h e i r f l e e t i s high over the 20 year horizon., The increasing stocks y i e l d p a r t i c u l a r l y high revenues given the low annual c a p i t a l costs being incurred. This income, though i s not re-invested i n vessels. Incomes per fisherman here, are at a maximum for the experimental ranges; however per capita incomes are at intermediary l e v e l s . This i s due to the large proportion of dependents and r e t i r e d people i n the population as a consequence of the emigration cf young adults. 8.2.5 Dynamics of Change 204 What are the dynamic processes that are responsible for the d i f f e r e n t i a t i o n of the community under the range cf resource and c a p i t a l investment parameters? Three methods w i l l be used to develop an answer to t h i s question: 1) examination of the state of the community at a midpoint time i n t e r s e c t ; 2) the use of time path i n d i c a t o r s ; 3) phase diagrams. Figure 8.3 shows the twenty indicator variables at the tenth year. The gradient f o r a l l variables with the exception of migration and migration costs, i s less steep than f o r the twenty year end point. C a p i t a l stocks of f i s h i n g vessels and of resources have not b u i l t up or declined to the degree found ten years l a t e r . Nor has the population altered greatly i n response to these changes. The greatest amount of change i n population and numbers of vessels occurs i n the l a t t e r decade, r e s u l t i n g from the multiplying effects of accumulated investment and the second generation e f f e c t s i n the population. The c h a r a c t e r i s t i c non-linear response of population and employment are manifest i n the f i r s t decade. The in t e r a c t i o n of change i n economic and e c o l o g i c a l resources i s shown by the convex shape of the population i s o c l i n e s . , The migration rates show a minimum at intermediary l e v e l s of resource augmentation and investment. Moderate levels of saving directed to small f i s h i n g units, create a source of employment that fluctuates sizeably with resource perturbations. The d i r e c t i o n of gradient f o r the variables employment,revenue, and returns to investment i s i n the opposite d i r e c t i o n to that of the 20 year measures. Investments made i n boats have not r e a l i z e d t h e i r p o t e n t i a l , on average, at the ten o FIG. 8.3 S IMULATIONS AT YEAR TEN SEINE CREK INCOME 11000*1 KIGRRTIOH RH1E (1 RDULTS/1ERR) RV. LENGTH Of RESIDENCE[TEARS! Q LU I— CO L U > LU to CD CO o o I— ex _ J ZD CD U J DC O s: o z o C J LU I. 13. n. .18. i i . ao. .ai .6 .4 .2 0 -.025 - .01 .005 .02 .035 .05 PER CflPUfl INCflHEdOOO*) 1 .6 .4 .2 0 -.025 -.01 .005 .02 .035 .05 TOTRL f!5HIN6 1NCOMEU0EWI 3.3 3.«, 4.4, 4.» , 1.4 -.025 -.01 .005 .02 .035 .05 TOTRL HfWVESII10E6«l CRPITAL/LRBOUR RRTI0 U.U\\ .025 -.01 .005 .02 .035 .05 RATIO (RETURNS 10 CRPltRL/LfleOURJ -.025 -.01 .005 .02 .035 .05 DEPENDENCY RRT10 1 I .0 .6 .4 .2 0 -.025 - .01 .005 .02 .035 .05 NUMBER Or GILLNETTERS 41.4 -.025 -.01 .005 . 02 . 035 . 05 S.D. OF FISHING 1NC0BE -.025 -.01 .005 .02 .035 .05 POPULATION 1X1000) i - .O l .005 .02 .035 .05 NUMBER OF COMBINATION .025 -.01 .005 .02 .035 .05 PER CRPITR INCOME FOR FISHING .025 - .01 .005 .02 .035 .05 COST OF M16RATJ0NUE5*! .01 .005 .02 .035 .05 NUflBER Or SEINERS .025 -.01 .005 .02 .035 .05 -.025 -.01 .005 .02 .035 .05 -.025 -.01 .005 .02 .035 .05 TOTRL VRLUE OF VESSELSI10E6*> -.025 -.01 .005 .02 .035 .05 EMPLOYMENT RR1EU) -.025 -.01 .005 .02 .035 .05 EMPLOYMENT 1*101 . .025 - .01 .005 .02 .035 .05 ECONOMIC EFFICJENCYIREVENUE/C05TSI I 1 ) .7 .3.8 .3, .025 -.01 .005 .02 .035 .05 -.025 -.01 .005 .02 .035 .05 E C O L O G I C A L R E G U L A T I O N (ANNUAL R A T E OF I N C R E A S E I N H A R V E S T ) 205 year horizon. At the intermediary time horizon, the revenues from resource increases accrue in a greater proportion to the labour sector than to the owners of vessels. The revenues from a high harvest year benefit a l l fishermen immediatly while the average returns to investment are maximal only after the debt incurred i n t h e i r purchase i s su b s t a n t i a l l y repaid. The gradients of average p r o f i t a b i l i t y of f i s h i n g vessels across the resource and investment dimensions can be seen to be l e s s sharp at the end of the i n i t i a l ten years. Time path indicators of the t r a j e c t o r i e s followed by the community over the 20 years are shown i n Figure 8.4. The variables were defined i n terms of three groups - 1) discounted cumulative sums over the time trajectory; 2) indicators of the range of variation and of maximum annual changes - these are relevant to development concerns such as security of employment, and di s l o c a t i o n of population; 3) detailed variables such as f i n a n c i a l r a t i o s for each boat type. The variable l i s t i s : 1. Present value (P.V.) of t o t a l harvest at a 5% discount (x10,000,000 $) P.V. = t o t a l gross revenues (t) *( 1-t) * * r where r = the rate of discount and t = year 2. P.V. Of t o t a l harvest at 1055 discount. 3. P.V. Of migration costs at 5% discount {x100,000 $) 4. P.V. Of migration costs at 10X discount. 5. The r a t i o of var.1/var.3. (P.V. Harvest/P.V. Costs, 5%) FIG. 8.4 . TIME PATH INDICATORS P.V. li[C. COSTS. 101 DISCOUNT (10E2) RANGE OF CHANGE IN rWULRTJON .0Z5 -.01 .005 .02 . 035 .05 rtHX. CHANGE IN S M . AV. PCI 1! Ill I EFFJCIENCr OF GILUIETS .025 -.01 .005 . 02 .035 .05 -q.a Q,l J.S| 0.7 f.0 1.^  P.V. M1G. COSTS. 57 DISCOUNT aoEZl «W. DECLINE IN EMPLOYMENT ARTE -«.-i.-«r-i. .0Z5 - .01 .005 .02 ,0?S .Jf MAX. CHANGE IN 5 TH. A'l. POP. -.025 -.01 .005 .02 .035 .05 -.025 -.01 .005 .02 .035 .05 P.V.HARVEST. 107 DISCOUNT U0E4) CONtlUNIU 67C. 107 L>ISWJNTil0E2l -.025 -.01 .005 .OZ .035 .05 RANGE IN MIGRATION/(EHR -.025 -.01 .OOS .02 .035 .OS -.025 -.01 .005 . 02 . 035 . 05 P.V. HARVEST. S7 DISCOUNT UOE<ii COMMUNITT B/C. 57 OISCOUNulOEZ) -.025 - .01 .005 .02 .035 .05 TO"*1. ,10. OF iMGAANTS .025 -.01 .005 .UC .035 .05 EFFICIENT JF COMBINATION HHNbt IN WW. -tiwiuc ur w |IK»IO._I B._5 f.» - 5 . J - - S.S -.025 -.01 .005 .02 .035 .05 RANGE IN RNN. CHANGE OF C .0: • .6 .4 .2 0 ' \\S-* .025 -.01 .005 .02 . 035 .05 ARNGE IN ANN. CHANGE OF S 1 • .025 - .0; .005 .02 .055 .05 NAX. CHANGE IN 5 TK. AV. »NIGi<ANTS 02S-.01 .005 .02 .035 .OS -.OZS-.01 .1105 .02 .035 .05 -.025 -.Ul .005 .02 ,0?5 .QE -.025 -.01 .U05 .02 .035 . 05 PEOPLE/BOATS .025 -.01 .005 . 02 .J35 .05 .025 -.01 .005 .02 .035 ,jE ECOLOGICAL REGULATION (ANNUAL RATE OP INCREASE IN HARVEST) 206 6. The r a t i o of var.2/var.4. ^P.V. Harvests/P.V. Costs,10%) 7. The maximum decline i n the employment rate between consecutive years. 8. The range of change i n the population over the 20 year period (x100) 9. The t o t a l number of adult migrants over the twenty years (x100). 10. The range (max-min) i n number of adult migrants/year over the twenty years (x100) 11. The maximum change i n the f i v e year average of population <x100). 12. The maximum change i n the f i v e year average per capita i nc c me (x10 0) . 13. The maximum change i n the f i v e year average for the number of adult migrants/year (x10). 14-16. The p r o f i t r a t i o s by vessel type at year 20. 17. The r a t i o of number of people/number of boats. 18-19. The range (max-min) of annual change i n the three types of vessels. Population of the community declines below a boundary drawn roughly across the upper-left to lower r i g h t diagonal axis. In the lower half, the t o t a l numbers of migrants to Sointula i s adds to l e s s than the increment i n population pointing to the importance of natural increases. Referring to the population graph at year 10, i t can be noted that there i s f l a t area at high resources. The t o t a l numbers of migrants however, show a comparatively steeper gradient along the resource axis. The 207 conclusion i s that the growth of population as a r e s u l t of employment from steady c a p i t a l investment, occurs l a t e r i n the development of the community and i s more responsive to investment i n vessels than to the more variable resource enhancement. The lower value of migration i n the i n i t i a l years embues the community with a greater s t a b i l i t y , r e s u l t i n g from higher average length of residence. This, i n turn, s t a b i l i z e s out-migration i n the future. The path to maximum population i s along steady additions i n the early years as a r e s u l t of b u i l d up of the f i s h i n g f l e e t . The r e s u l t of m u l t i p l i c a t i v e demographic lags i s that population s i z e shows a build up along the positive d i r e c t i o n of both the axes. Total harvest shows a s i m i l a r pattern due to the accumulation of stocks of f i s h i n g vessels. The population component d i f f e r s , however, i n depending heavily on the investment parameter because the significance of employment to migration. Although the present value of t o t a l harvest i s a roughly l i n e a r combination of investment and resources, per capita income (Fig. 8.1) i s more strongly dependent on resources alone. The build up of population accompanying investment i n the f l e e t s h i f t s the per capita income function towards the resource axis. (The assumptions i n t h i s scenario are that demand does not determine the vessel-minus-licence prices, and increments i n e f f o r t do not a f f e c t stocks. The e f f e c t of these two factors and t h e i r interactions are examined i n a l a t e r section.) The r a t i o : - t o t a l harvest/ costs of migration (var. 5,6) -indicates the t o t a l revenue of the community i n r e l a t i o n to the 208 relocation and adjustment costs incurred by those leaving as a r e s u l t of diminished opportunities, A maximum i s shown at high investment rates and moderately high stock increases. A second shallower peak occurs for the symmetric management regime of high stocks and moderate investment. The best choice i s ambiguous because the second peak shows the highest l e v e l s of per capita inccme and a s l i g h t l y greater labour share of the t o t a l revenue. To recapitulate, the analysis began with the examination of the state of the community i n year 20. The pattern of population and inccme l e v e l s indicated a sharp d i f f e r e n t i a t i o n i n the direction of increase along the axes. Time indicators i n the subseguent graphs provided information on the temporal patterns of build up or decline in the f i s h i n g f l e e t and the human population. Trade-offs between the rate of investment i n boats and the rate of increase i n f i s h stocks showed int e r e s t i n g non-symmetric results, A phase diagram was used to investigate i n d e t a i l the implications to the community of trade-offs between vessels and resources. The vessels have high i n i t i a l costs as well as continued operating expenses but may provide employment and high returns i n the long run. Resources a f f e c t with immediacy the per capita incomes but are subject to randomness. Figure- 8.5a and b shows the phase diagrams of the per capita income on population, f o r two sets of parameter values: resource rate investment rate Figure 8.5a 035 1.0 209 Figure 8.5b .05 0.8 The phase plots suggests that for parameter set b, the variance in the resource base r e s u l t s in higher migration rates than for a, while per capita incomes are lower i n a than b. A Monte Carlo experiment was carried out i n order to test the hypothesis of d i f f e r e n t i a l e f f e c t s on the community as a result of symmetric trade-offs in the exogenous parameters. Thirty simulations on d i f f e r e n t stochastic time series for harvest were computed. Set A had a an investment rate of 1.0 and a resource rate of .02; set B had an investment rate of .6 and a resource rate of .05. The r e s u l t s were subject to s t a t i s t i c a l tests by ANOVA (analysis of variance). The r e s u l t s are shown i n table 8.1. The results show that the population of "A" i s larger on average than for "B". The mean values of migration rates are not s t a t i s t i c a l l y d i f f e r e n t though the variance of the migration rate i s larger f o r MB" than for *'AM. Per capita incomes are s i g n i f i c a n t l y d i f f e r e n t for the trajectory mean values: the per capita income for "E" i s larger than for "A" Type "A™ development can be interpreted as responding to resource fluctuations by absorbing them in the personal incomes. Under type "B n development, changes i n the rate of emigration i s the p r i n c i p l e coping response to resource fluctuations. Development under the two parameter sets r e s u l t i n communities that are s i m i l a r i n terms of the f i n a l population size i n year twenty. The difference i s i n the character of response to a stochastic environment. The absorption of annual fluctuations in o CM Figure 8 . 5 a ^1 • High Investment and Moderate F i s h Increases Population P o p u l a t i o n 210 Table 8.1 analysis of Variance POPULATION source df sum of sgrs mean sgr f - s t a t s ig between 1 .26040 *6 .26040 +6 33.872 .000* within 1198 .92098 +7 7687.7 t o t a l 1199 .94702 *7 eguality of variances: DF= 1, .43056 +7 F= 1.3132 .2518 n mean variance std dev A 600 846. 22 8C47.6 89.708 B 600 816.76 7327. 8 85.602 grand 1200 831.49 7898.4 88.873 MIGRATION source df sum of sgrs mean sgr f - s t a t s i g between 1 .31271 -3 .31271 -3 .18321 .6687 within 1198 2.044 8 .17068 -2 t o t a l 1199 2.0451 eguality of variances: DF= 1, .43056 *7 F= 26.819 .000* n mean variance std dev A 600 .16054 -1 .13495 -2 .36736 -1 B 600 .15033 -1 .20642 -2 .45433 -1 grand 1200 .15544 -1 .17057 -2 .41300 -1 PER CAPITA INCOME source df sum of sgrs mean sgr f - s t a t s i g between 1 622.44 622.44 234.90 .000* within 1198 3174.5 2.6498 t o t a l 1199 3796.9 eguality of variances; BF= 1, .43056 *1 F= 147.95 .000* n mean variance std dev A 600 4.7402 1.40 97 1.1873 B 600 6.1806 3.8899 1.9723 grand 1200 5.4604 3.1667 1.7795 type "B" i s through the movement of people to or from the community. In type "A", the greater number of vessels provides security of employment. At the same time, yearly declines i n the resource are absorbed in the incomes of residents. 8.2.6 Summary The processes of change simulated by the model of Sointula was examined along two diagonal axes; 211 C I A-B I -D The AB axis of positive covariate change i n parameters produced the greatest d i f f e r e n t i a t i o n of the community i n terms of population and income. The key factor was the b u i l d up and growth of the human population and the l o c a l f i s h i n g f l e e t . An accelerating e f f e c t i n l a t e r years resulted from the m u l t i p l i c a t i v e e f f e c t s of growth. Under declining conditions the s o c i a l factors involved i n community cohesion and r e s i d e n t i a l attachment, were most discernable. Population size s t a b i l i z e d at a minimum boundary value, where i t was composed by a core of long term residents. Trade-offs between resources and boats were measured along the CD axis. Though high investment occurred on the l e f t at C, stable population nevertheless resulted under the conditions of diminishing resources. The population s t a b i l i z e d at the 20 year mark and was characterized by high unemployment rates. Under favourable conditions of resource growth, and a lower investment rate the community prospers greatly in personal incomes, but population i s stagnant. Lengthy average periods of residence and a high proportion of dependents t y p i f y t h i s settlement. The l o c a l fishing vessels are older on the average, than under high reinvestments. They operate at r e l a t i v e l y low costs and, to a small extent, cushion resource fluctuations and provide some security of employment and migration r a t e s ) . s In the following sections, the robustness of of the model to i t s economic and e c o l o g i c a l suppositions, i s investigated. 212 The model i s then applied to assess an income s t a b i l i z a t i o n program at the community l e v e l . 8.3 Bobustness of the Model Coherent patterns of change in the community corresponded with several regions of the regulatory parameter range. Under d i f f e r i n g resource and economic environments, the model branched to a rapid growth, moderate expansion, stagnation, and declining community types. 7The dis l o c a t i o n s incurred i n labour and i n investment were i d e n t i f i e d as well as the interactions between s o c i a l , economic, and demographic forces. To what extent are observations of the model a suitable basis for r e a l i s t i c deductions about Sointula? The economic and ecological assumptions of the community*s r e l a t i o n to exogenous parameters are challenged in t h i s section. In order to test the s t a b i l i t y of the observed temporal multivariate c o r r e l a t i o n s , experimental a l t e r a t i o n of the model was c a r r i e d out. The linkage of the microsystem to macrosystems was altered i n two ways: 1) vessel prices, additional to l i c e n c e were modeled as a one-year autoregressive function of the past income l e v e l . 2) Increments i n t o t a l catch were no longer postulated to have insubstantial e f f e c t s on future stocks, A simple form of diminishing returns, as a stock e f f e c t was introduced into the model. The two experimental treatments were run separately.. They were then combined to test for interactions. The f i r s t experiment added a further element to the factors determining the price of vessels. The value of a boat was egual to the FIG. 8.6 PRICE EFFECTS HOUSEHOLD 1NCOHEUOOOI a .( L U 1 CO 11 1 .4 U—> >• .2 i — i U J 0 c r -. t o CD 1 i — i > .6 C E CO .6 u _ o .4 >-< .2 Q CD -. MIGRATION RATEIJRDULTS/YR. 1 HV. LENGTH OF RESIDENCE CRPITRL/LABOUR 24. 1 025 -.01 .005 . 02 .035 .05 PER CAPITA INCOME(IOOD) TOTAL VRLUE OF VESSELSU0E6) -.025 -.01 .005 . 02 . 035 .05 RATIOIRETURNS CAPITAL/LABOUR .025 -.01 .005 .02 . 035 . 05 DEPENDENCY RATIO -.025 -.01 .005 .02 .035 .05 NUMBER OF GILLNETS .025 -.01 .005 . 02 . 035 .05 EMPLOYMENT RATE 17) -o . - j . TOTAL FISHING INCOMEIJOEB .025 -.01 .005 . 02 . 035 .05 S.D. OF FISHING INCOME 025 -.01 .005 . 02 . 035 . 05 POPULATION(10J01 .025 -.01 .005 . 02 . 035 . 05 NUMBER OF COMBINATION -.025 -.01 .005 .02 .035 .05 EMPLOYMENT 1X101 -D2S - .01 .005 .02 .035 .05 TOTAL HARVESTO0E6) .025 -.01 .00S .02 . 035 . 05 PER CAPITA INCOME FOR FISHING .025 - .01 .005 .02 .035 .05 COST OF MIGRATIONOOESI .025 • .01 .005 . 02 . 035 . 05 NUMBER OF SEINERS -.025 -.01 .005 .02 .035 .05 EFFICIENCYIREVENUE/CDSTS) -.025 -.01 .005 . 02 . 035 .05 -.025 -.01 .005 .02 . 035 . 05 •02S-.01 .005 .02 .035 .05 OZS-.01 .ODS .02 . 035 . 05 •025 -.01 .005 . 02 . 035 OS E C O L O G I C A L R E G U L A T I O N (ANNUAL R A T E OF I N C R E A S E I N H A R V E S T ) 213 licence price plus the market price of the vessel. It has been assumed that licences were the l i m i t i n g factor and th e i r value increased as expectations of future catches rose. In the new model, the f u l l price of the vessel i s indexed to proportional changes i n catch. This i s r e a l i s t i c in l i g h t of the current i n t e n s i f i c a t i o n of investment and trend to higher price vessels (Pearse 1972, Fraser 1976, Silen 1977). The nomogram was duplicated following the procedures described above, making a change only to the value cf the boats by the following equation: V(E,T) = V(B, T-1) * CATCH (t-1)/k where V(E,T) = value of vessel type B at time T CATCH (t-1) = net revenue at time (t-1) k = constant of proportionality. The re s u l t i n q nomogram i s shewn in Figure 8.6. The pattern of the isopleths i s s i m i l a r to that of the i n i t i a l model. High population and t o t a l harvest occur at the U.R.C. although at reduced l e v e l s . Migration rate shows no d i s t i n c t trend, although minimum rates occur i n the region of low investment and low resource increase. Employment rate shows a maximum at intermediate investment rates and slow rates of increase i n harvests. Average p r o f i t r a t i o s show a strong gradient on investment rate and i s almost independent of resource change. The second experiment was carried out i n order to test the importance of the assumption that catches i n year t*1 are unaffected by the siz e of the catch i n year t. I t was assumed, in the previous section, that investments i n the Sointula f l e e t would not be of s u f f i c i e n t size to produce a s i g n i f i c a n t e f f e c t FIG. 8.7 STOCK EFFECTS HOUSEHOLD INCOME UOODI MIGRATION RRTClJRDULTS/YR.l RV. LENGTH OF RESIDENCE CRPITAL/LABOUR ]6. 18., 31. -.025 -.01 .005 .02 035 .05 PER CHPITB INCOHEllOODl 1 .8 .6 .4 .2 '! / . . . a. a. .3. q. q. -.0Z5 -.01 .005 .02 035 .05 TOTAL FISHING INCOMEI10E6) 1 -.025 -.01 .005 .02 .035 .05 TOTAL HARVEST O0E6) .025 -.01 .005 .02 .035 .05 RAT10IRETURNS CBP1THL/LRB0UR1 .025 -.01 .005 . 02 . 035 . 05 S.D. OF FISHING INCOME p.e o,8 i.^ i.q i -.025 -.01 .005 .02 .035 .05 -.025 -.01 .005 .02 .035 .05 POPULATlONdOOO] NUMBER OF COMBINATION \ .025 -.01 .005 .02 .035 .05 PER CAPITA INCOME FOR FISHING -.025 -.01 .DOS .02 .035 .05 E C O L O G I C A L R E G U L A T I O N -.025 -.01 .005 .02 .035 .05 -.025 COST OF MIGRATIONUOESI 1 .01 .005 .02 .035 .05 NUMBER OF SEINERS TOTRL VALUE OF VESSELSU0E61 Ov. .025 -.0: .005 .02 .035 .05 EMPLOYMENT RATEi;I I tlWM -.025 -.01 .005 .02 .035 .05 EMPLOYMENT 1X101 .025 -.01 .005 .02 .03S .05 EFF1CIENCYIREVENUE/COSTS) / / I. . I. . 2. . Z. 025 -.01 .005 .02 .035 .05 -.025-.01 .DOS .02 .035 .05 -.025 -.01 .005 .02 .035 .05 -.025 -.01 .005 .02 .035 .05 1 A N N U A L R A T E OF I N C R E A S E I N H A R V E S T ) 214 i n the region-wide stocks that are exploited. In order to test the robustness of the conclusions under t h i s assumption, an alternative r e l a t i o n was s p e c i f i e d . The new assumption introduced a simple form of diminishing returns i n response to increased e f f o r t . A f i x e d percentage of the incremented catch i n year t, was withdrawn from the catch i n year t+1. In terms of difference equations: CAT (t+1) — k * B (CAT (T) - CAT (T-1)/CAT (T-1) where B<1 and A= i) constant i i ) l i n e a r l y changing function. A second consideration had to be added. This was that increasing catches from technologially enhanced stocks would not r e s u l t i n diminishing returns. Assuming that enhanced and natural stocks were perfectly mixed, the percent of natural stocks that were caught would decrease with greater enhancement. The equation was then: CAT(T+1) = CAT(T+1)* (1/(1*ENH)) where ENH was the quantity of enhanced units as a multiple of the i n i t i a l l e v e l s which was set egual to 1 at t=0 and increased at the rate set on the policy axis. The nomogram generated i s shown i n Figure 8.7. Again the basic pattern of the nomogram i s preserved. Highest population and incomes occurs f o r maximum rates of the exogenous variables. Differences are shown in the curves f o r average p r o f i t a b i l i t y , which depend to a greater extent on rates of increase i n harvests. Increased purchases are followed by diminishing FIG. 8.8 PR ICE AND STOCK EFFECTS HOUSEHOLD INCOME 110001 D .3 L U r — .2 in L U > .1 1—1 L U 0 c e L O CD .5 i — i > .1 r x CO .3 u _ ED .2 •< .1 z o o I — e x _ l .5 Z D CD 11 i .4 c c .3 1—1 s : .2 o •z. .1 o C J L U 0 MIGRATION RRTEUA0ULT5/YR.I 055 -.01 .005 .02 .035 .05 PER CAPITA INCBMEUOOO) TOTAL PISHING INC5HEU0E6 TOTAL HARVEST(10E6I .025 -.01 .005 .02 .035 .05 -.025 -.01 .005 . 02 . 035 . 05 RAT10IRETURN5 CAPITAL/LABOUR I .025 -.01 .005 .02 .035 .05 S.D. OF FISHING INCOME .025 -.01 .005 .02 .035 .05 PER CAPITA INCOME FOR FISHING .025 -.31 .005 .02 .035 .05 AV. LENGTH OF RESIDENCE .5 .4 .3 .2 .1 0 -.025 -.01 .005 .02 .035 .05 DEPENDENCY RATIO •5 „- i » .4 .3 .2 .11.6 CAPITAL/LABOUR TOTAL VRLUt OF VESSELS! 10C6) -.025 -.01 .005 .02 .035 .05 POPULATIONU0001 .5 .4 .3 .2 .1 -.025 -.01 .005 .02 .035 .05 COST OF MIGRBTI0NUCC51 -o. .025 -.01 .005 .02 .035 .05 ?]. 37., V . «B. .025 -.01 .005 .02 .035 .05 NUMBER OF GILLNET5 i - . O l .005 .02 .035 .05 NUMBER OF C0HBINRT1BN .01 .005 .02 .035 .05 NUMBER OF SEINERS -.025 -.01 .005 .02 .035 .05 .025 - .01 .005 .02 .035 .05 EMPLOYMENT RATE U) -.025 -.01 .005 .02 .035 .05 EMPLOYMENT 1X101 .3 .2 .1 0 -.025 -.01 .005 .02 .035 .05 EFF1CI EN CYI REVENUE/COSTS) -.025 -.01 .005 .02 .035 .05 E C O L O G I C A L R E G U L A T I O N ( A N N U A L R A T E OF I N C R E A S E I N H A R V E S T ) 215 returns, making the impact of investment less strong. A minimum for migration and employment occurs at intermediary positive values for the x-variable where the e f f e c t s of increased catches have the greatest e f f e c t i n the following year. Lastly, a simulation was carried out using the combined model, that i s with both increasing vessel prices and stock effects. The plots are shown i n Figure 8.8. A sharp discontinuity occurred f o r declining stocks. As stocks declined, vessel prices f e l l . More vessels were able to be purchased i n the i n i t i a l years. The increased catches from more vessels resulted i n an greater declining stock e f f e c t . The plots were generated only on the lower half of the range of investment rate (0-. 5 of savings). Above this l e v e l , for decreasing harvests, negative average income l e v e l s were produced which were beyond the range of normal operation of the model. The pattern, however, for the region of resource growth appears similar to the i n i t i a l model r e s u l t s . 8.4 Inccme Insurance In t h i s section, the model i s u t i l i z e d to assess a program of income insurance. Since the revenues from the f i s h e r y are characterized by a large random component, management programs to s t a b i l i z e yearly have been proposed (Walters 1975). The annual insurance payment was: INS = (AVFI(T) - AVFI(T-1)*X AVFI (T-1) >AVFI (T) and INS (T) <INS (T-1) •N*TSAV FIG- 8.9 INCOME INSURANCE HOUSEHOLD INCOMEU0D0*! MIGRATION RRTE U RDULTS/YERRI RV. LENGTH OF RESIDENCE IYERR51 0 .06 .12 .18 .24 .3 PER CRPITfl INCOME 11000*1 ML v 4ll | I 4.3. «.< 3.1* 4.0 4.1 ( 4.7 , 4.3 f 4.4 0 .06 .12 .18 .24 .3 TOTHL FISHING JNCOME110E6*! L f l \ . U I »•? M « I .5 Ab .3 ,2 .1 0 0 .06 .12 .18 .24 .3 TOTRL HARVESTI10E6*! .5 .4 .3 .? .1 .3 . 4l2 4,3 4. 4 4.44.S4..S 4. .3 .2 .1 I ,^r<ri26 , -1.09 fl .07 0 .06 .12 .18 .24 .3 RATIO [RETURNS TO CflPIIRL/LRBOURI •^6]:B.«.(£.BS.aS.B 5.7 .4 .3 .2 0 .06 .12 .18 .24 .3 DEPENDENCY RATIO .06 .12 .18 .24 .3 S.D. OF FISHING INCOME 0 .06 .12 .18 .24 .3 PER CRPITfl INCOME FOR FISHING 0 .06 .12 .IB .24 .3 ) 1.1 q.i.i 1.U.1I.1 ] i , " 1,1 0 .06 .12 .16 .24 .3 POPULATION BS4. )3M*»)alK«si|. 0 .06 .12 .16 .24 .3 COST OF MIGRATION(100000*1 CAPITAL/LABOUR RATIO fa.S3.343.1 43.S 43.8 43.7 43.6 .06 .12 .18 .24 .3 NUMBER OF GILLNETTERS « 4 . 43. ia.43.H3l .06 .12 .18 .24 .3 NUMBER OF COMBINATION jH4i4W3fB. 43. , 06 .12 .18 .24 .3 NUHBER OF SEINERS I 161616. 0 .06 .12 .16 .24 .3 TOTRL VALUE OF VESSELS(10E6*I ••UMaB.e B.7 .06 .12 .18 .24 .3 EMPLOYMENT RATE .BSBJBIOO 44-01 1-0.00 Ti -«,«ip.o .3 .2 .1 OHI.0 p. 00 MB OP .03 0 .06 .12 .16 .24 .3 EMPLOYMENT 304. 305. 30S. 3PMBo!lpft2flB30Bt 06 .12 .16 .24 .3 0 .06 .12 .16 .24 .3 ECONOMIC EFFICIENCYIREVENUE/COSTSI 5, .4'(» i .3 Q1[B l.fl 3.0, 3.1 | 3.3 , 3.3 , 0 .06 .12 .16 .24 .3 S T A N D A R D D E V I A T I O N OF A N N U A L H A R V E S T S FIG. 8.10 SENSITIVITY TO VARIANCE OF HARVEST ANNURL HOUSEHOLD IBRHriOX 1.1-0. t-1.3-3.4-3,*4.8 -5.8 RELRTIVE INEQUITY NUMBER OF COMBINATION .025 - .01 .005 .02 .035 .05 TOTRL REVENUE -.025 -.01 .005 .02 .035 .05 PER CHPITA INCOME .3 .16 .12 .06 I.. 21 .025 -.01 .005 .02 .035 .05 ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY 3.0 3 i 0.6 4.« 5.3 6.1,6.a 7.ja .025 -.01 .003 .02 .035 .05 S.D. OF FISHING INCOME ItJ.O IK7 20.4 ti.tip'.o n'.j i3'.4t is'.a iji'.aa'.7 | .025 -.01 .005 .02 . 035 . 05 INDEX OF FAMILY INCOME 24tt.<|i3>»,-' .19 .12 .00 I 17.4 181318.3 .025 -.Dl .005 .02 .035 .05 NUMBER SF SEINERS 30.20. IB. 19.10.18. .025 -.01 .005 . 02 . 035 . 05 DEPENDENCY RATIO CAPITAL/LABOUR RATIO 85.^ 30,158082063. -.025 -.01 .005 .02 .035 .05 -.025 -.01 .005 .02 .035 .05 -.025 -.01 .005 .02 .035 .05 COST OF MIGRATION •^OlO -1.8 -3.6-3.84.4-5.3 -« . / \ \ i POPULATION 1815. 80S. 708. NUMBER OF GILLNETE3S 38. 38.34.33.10.17.15. -.025 -.01 .005 .02 .035 .05 -.025 -.01 .005 .02 .035 .05 -.025 -.01 .005 .02 .035 .05 - 025 -.01 .005 .02 .035' .05 E C O L O G I C A L R E G U L A T I O N ( F I S H C A T C H ) 216 where INS t o t a l insurance payments AVFI(T) Average fishing income, time T X Number of fishermen Average proportion of savings contributed TSAV Aggregate savings., The insurance payments were made to equalize yearly incomes subject to the constraints of accumulation of funds. The prcgram was tested on a range of contributions to the program, from 0 to 50% of average savings. Along the resource dimension, the harvests were constant with variance generated on a range from a standard deviation of 0 to .3 between annual l e v e l s . The r e s u l t s are shown i n a nomogram in Figure 8.9. A marginal improvement i n per capita incomes occurs over the range of resource v a r i a b i l i t y and savings. Migration rates measured as an average over the f i n a l three years appear unaffected by the extent of change i n the annual variance. (For comparative information on the s e n s i t i v i t y of the community to a range of variances i s harvests, a supplemented nomogram i s provided i n Figure 8.10. The v e r t i c a l axis i s "standard deviation of harvests" while the horizontal axis i s "ecological regulation".) 8.5 Conclusions The simulation model provided s i g n i f i c a n t i n s i g h t s into the dynamic processes of the Sointula community. The scope of growth and decline i n the population from the changing employment, incomes, and savings were estimated under a range of resource and investment conditions. At the lower range, the population approached a minimum siz e . At the upper range, the community 217 grew at an increasing rate within the twenty year horizon. Socioeconomic variables were indicators of the q u a l i t a t i v e character of the future scenarios. Declining communities were characterized by a core of long term residents. The community had a high dependency r a t i o due to the r e l a t i v e l y large proportion of r e t i r e d people.,At the growth pole, the community had a high employment rate and net in-migration. The average length of residence was shorter and a high proportion of working adults characterized the population. They were attracted by the f i s h i n g which had expanded rapidly under favourable resource and investment opportunities. The implications to the community of trade-offs between augmented resources and l o c a l f l e e t investment was indicated by the dynamics o f f of the axis of balanced growth. Two community scenarios can be compared. One i n which high investment rates i n vessels occurs and the other in which resource management ra i s e s stocks of f i s h . A trade-off favouring investment generated more stable employment, but lower average incomes. A trade-off favouring the natural resources resulted i n high incomes i n the terminal year. However, time path indicators pointed to a greater variance in annual migration rates for t h i s t r a j e c t o r y . The ten year horizon indicated high t o t a l harvest at the decade mark for the l a t t e r model, however, t o t a l harvest between the two communities had equalized a f t e r twenty years. The proportional share of the t o t a l harvest to the labour component was higher i n the resource-based community. At the same time the variance of incomes between types of fishermen was also greater. The l a t t e r e f f e c t was due to the very high revenues received by 218 the upper income groups, made up of seine owners. The greater size of harvest coupled with the high p r o f i t a b i l i t y of the moderate investments, on a twenty year horizon was the basis of t h i s e f f e c t . The simulation also provided insight i n t o more extreme divergences from the axis of balanced change. High investments at stable resources (investment rate=1.0, eco l o g i c a l regulation=0.0) allowed population increase but with unemployment. Per capita incomes were s t a b i l i z e d over the twenty year period, but employment rates declined i n the second decade. In t h i s region of stable or declining stocks developing a higher per capita income community depended primarily on increased rates of harvest. Low investment rates, but high growth i n the f i s h e r i e s resource generated a low population, high income community. Owners of the operating vessels had the highest p r o f i t r a t i o s for the range of the experiment. The variance between income groups (var.6) was less than that for the high growth rate at the ten year mark, but the variance had become the largest by the end of the second decade. Variable 7, in figure 8,4 i s an indicator of security of employment. This objective i s indexed by recording the maximum drop in the employment rate between consecutive years, over the twenty year period. In the declining population and zero investment scenarios, the employment rates do not exhibit large f l u c t u a t i o n s . A small increase i n the rate of investment does r e s u l t i n an increase i n the number of persons employed, but the rate of employment then fluctuates to a greater extent between years. At these low population s i z e s . 219 immigration due to annual variation in incomes strongly affects the employment rates. Thus the increased investment rate can r e s u l t in temporary, but proportionally large drops i n the employment rate, given the stochastic f i s h e r i e s resource. Simulations designed to test the robustness of the conclusions were conducted. These experiments yielded s i m i l a r multivariate patterns along the balanced axis, to those obtained with the o r i g i n a l model. The f i r s t robustness t e s t , incorporated market e f f e c t s acting on the vessel prices. One difference was noted in the e f f i c i e n c y r a t i o s . The e f f i c i e n c y r a t i o s were s t a b i l i z e d and independent of rates of resource increase. The amount of l o c a l c a p i t a l in the fishery remained the same as i n the o r i g i n a l model, although p r o f i t a b i l i t y depended to a lesser degree on the rate of investment and more on the rate of increase in stocks. The r a t i o of g i l l n e t t e r s to seiners declined as the r i s i n g prices made the purchase of smaller vessels with savings derived from the chance occurence of good years, a l e s s viable option. Migration rates to the community showed a complex pattern at the twenty year mark. Comparing figures 8.1 and 8.6 shows that i n the former the migration rate showed a continuous increase i n moving i n a positive d i r e c t i o n along the coordinates. In the l a t t e r migration rate remains at a maximum at the U.S.C. but the pattern in other regions i s not homologous. The vessel prices were t i e d to expectations of stocks, so that price increases absorbed much of the increased revenues from enhancement. As a r e s u l t the t o t a l population increased to a lesser extent. In addition, the r a t i o of g i l l n e t t e r s to seiners (var. 13,15) was l e s s than i n the f i r s t 220 model. This reinforced the e f f e c t of lessening the amount of employment created. The amount of employment (var. 18) also showed a shallow gradient over the resource/investment plane. Under the stock effects model, the O.B.C..maxima were unaffected. The largest divergence occurred where enhancement increased catches at only a low rate. The res u l t i n g stock effects were greatest for t h i s l e v e l of implementation due to the larger percentage of natural stocks that were fish e d . The result shows the policy region of low enhancement rates to exhibit the occurrence of lower employment and migration rates, as well as, shallower curves f o r population size and number of vessels. Compounding market and stock e f f e c t s (fig.8.8), resulted i n an accelerated erosion of the resource base of the l o c a l fishery when there were moderate investment rates and a trend of declining stocks. An important conceptual basis for the thesis has been ecolo g i c a l anthropology. Its fundamental unit of study i s the population i s o l a t e and the r e f e r e n t i a l context i s the ecosystem (Bappaport 1968). The problem of the d e f i n i t i o n of the boundaries between the micro versus macrosystem has been a focus of recent inguiry in regional anthropology (Smith 1976), c u l t u r a l ecology (Bennett 1976), coastal resource management (Bish et a l 1975:ch.5) and systems analysis (Berlinski 1976). Sointula was i n i t i a l l y selected as a community that i s well defined i n terms of population and resource base. The available s t a t i s t i c s (Chapter 5, HacKay 1977) indicate that the Johnstone S t r a i t fishermen caught about one-guarter of the harvest i n s t a t i s t i c a l area #12 i n 1974. A wider data base on other 221 s t a t i s t i c a l areas and on secular variation i s unavailable. A plausible estimate, given the extant •homeguard' i n the l o c a l f l e e t , i s that a major portion of the Sointula harvest i s derived from the south-central regions. The open access character of the fishery i s also important to Sointula. This feature, along with the mobility of modern f i s h i n g boats, distinguishes the model as lacking closure at a l o c a l l e v e l . Centralized regulatory agencies manage the in t e n s i t y of harvest through the control of season, area, species and gear. Nevertheless, a large annual variance i n catch occurs. Since regulation was imperfect on the short term, the system was modeled as having a resource base that was random with regard to annual va r i a t i o n and l i n e a r in the trends of the average harvests. One policy option which e n t a i l s increased l o c a l control i s area l i m i t a t i o n . This policy has been enacted in Alaska (Adasiak 1977) and i s being considered i n B.C. The model shown i n figure 8.8 may be appropriate to area l i m i t a t i o n programs. The model includes marginal stock e f f e c t s together with market ef f e c t s i n licences and boats. The scenario suggests the following r e s u l t s in community development: Population growth may exhibit a higher degree of i n s t a b i l i t y . In p a r t i c u l a r , the dynamics at the 222 lower boundary should be more variable. * A framework for planning stock enhancement programs may be also be drawn from the simulations. Under exclusive access to increasing resources, three features of the community can be hypothesized; 1) On the short term, a "golden mean" path of moderate resource increase and intermediate investments can generate high migration rates i n the l o c a l community. 2} The trade-offs between investment i n vessels versus resources has assymetric r e s u l t s i n terms of migration rates and per capita incomes because of non-linear inte r a c t i o n s . Investment i n boats tends to s t a b i l i z e migration rates, while investment i n resources has the strongest e f f e c t on r a i s i n g per capita incomes of the r e s i d e n t i a l l y stable sector of the community. 3) The savings generated by the l o c a l fishery i s s u f f i c i e n t to increase the f l e e t at a rate that can attract high immigration to the l o c a l community, and lead to a lowering of indicators of community * This scenario may also be relevent to the Bella Coola. Founded at the turn of the century by Bella Cocla i s located three hundred miles north of the head of a f i f t y mile long i n l e t . The community only one on the coast whose union l o c a l has proposed the f i s h e r i e s policy of area l i m i t a t i o n , composed large l y of small g i l l n e t t e r s , whose concentrated i n the I n l e t . community of Norwegians, Vancouver at has been the consistently The f l e e t i s f i s h i n g i s 223 s t a b i l i t y . ** The model exhibited a richness i n developmental patterns. Under the policy options tested, the model captured aspects of declining areas, boom and bust cycles, high growth, and s t a b i l i t y . The detailed socioeconomic structure of the model allowed the examination of the employment rates, demographic indices and investment parameters. The simulation model along with empirical studies can provide a useful method for integrated s o c i a l and environmental planning. 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Zubrcw E.B.W. 1975 Demographic anthropology i n Demoarajehis Anthrofcloaii Quantitative Approaches ed. Zubrow E.B.W. Albuguergue:University of New Mexico Press 244 APPENDIX 1 History of s o i n t u l a : A Case Study i n Coastal Adaptation The history of the o r i g i n a l colonization, i t s accomplishments and demise, and the subsequent growth of the small f i s h i n g community has been t o l d i n Chapter 3. The available English language sources f o r Sointula history are Anderson (1967), Wilson (1971), Kolehmainen (1941), and Oberg (1921). A history written in Finnish by Halminin (1936) i s currently i n translation by Salo (1978).,In this chapter, a l i f e history of one of the few survivors of the o r i g i n a l colony w i l l be presented. The short biography i s based on an extended interview with Mr. A. Tynjala, conducted at his home i n Sointula. E d i t o r i a l notes are included to amplify points not f u l l y explained in the interview. An interpretation of the s a l i e n t features of the history of the community follows. Topics of particular i n t e r e s t , such as the development of f i s h i n g , the response of the community to c r i s i s and population movements were investigated through interviews with several other senior residents. The aim to delineate the ways and the means by which the community has coped with change. 7.1. A Biographical Account of the L i f e of Mr. A. Tynjala. (The following i s taken from an extended interview ca r r i e d out i n Sointula. The recording method was pen and notebook. A more detailed record was written when the notes were transcribed into the permanent f i e l d notebook,at night.) I was born i n 1899 i n North Dakota. My parents were both 245 from Finland and bad met and got married i n the U.S. we arrived i n Sointula i n 1902 on the steamer "Tears", docked at the r a f t f l o a t s and went to stay i n the doctor's tent. Later, we stayed in a log cabin u n t i l the "apartment home" was ready. During the colonization company, many came to look, but not everyone stayed. Some, on seeing the rough conditions did not even get off the boat. There were f i v e f a m i l i e s who came from North Dakota at that time. Among them were the Grantos, Luk and Pontals. (Note: The founder of the colony, Matti Kurrika, a writer and Utopian visionary, had come to Nanaimo i n 1900. In 1901, a colonization company had been formed. By an agreement with the Pro v i n c i a l Government, control of Malcolm Island was to be granted i n seven years after 350 families had homesteaded there. The f i r s t members arrived on December 15, 1901 and by March there were 14 men and a woman. The doctor referred to was Dr. Oswald Buckman from Astoria, Oregon. To accommodate new a r r i v a l s , there were two log cabins with additional space i n tents during the summer. The colony had over 100 adult members by 1902. Each was required to buy a membership of $200.00 or contribute work to that amount. Logging began that year at Mitchell Eay. The work was organized by an elected supervisor. Onder him was the work team, responsible for i t s own tools and eguipment. The "apartment home" referred to was a three story structure b u i l t i n the winter of 1902. Two f l o o r s were used as a family residence and the t h i r d for meetings. A large brick oven was used for cooking and heat. In January 1902, the house burnt 246 to the ground apparently as a resul t of the oven, causing the deaths of eleven people - two women and eight children.) I remember the f i r e . At that time I was three years old. I was asleep i n the 'apartment building* when i t broke out. Mother went back into the f i r e to get me. He l i v e d i n two more houses in town u n t i l we moved to the farm i n 1912., Our family was a large one and I had seven brothers and s i s t e r s . There were a l o t of large families at that time. Among the largest were the Davidsons with nine children, the Cedars and the Tarkenens each of whom had seven children. Be were logging, while l i v i n g i n town. Our home was a shack with only two rooms and ray f i v e brothers and I slept lined up i n a long row. When the colonization disbanded (in 1905), the land was divided up i n the 240* x 240* blocks and each of these was subdivided into four l o t s . People just had to carry on when the company collapsed. Useful s k i l l s were brought and the island had a smelter, two tugboats, and a sawmill. Bight from the s t a r t in 1905, some men from Sointula were going to Bivers Inlet to f i s h . More and more went each summer. In those days, you could not buy any fresh food or bread at the canneries. The women baked a hard round loaf that would not go bad. It had a hole i n the middle so you could s t i c k a broom handle through i t to carry i t . The canneries had tinned goods and, of course, there was f i s h . When we had saved enough money we moved to the farm i n 1912. It i s located just outside cf town, opposite the cemetery. It s t i l l i s i n the family's possession. The population at that time was two hundred. This was less than i t was during the 247 colonization company because when i t closed many had l e f t . Fishing went side by side with farming. Fishing was carried out i n the summer; the season then lasted 5-6 weeks, beginning in the end of June and f i n i s h i n g on the f i r s t of August. From 1915 or 1916, every farmer was going to Smith's or Rivers I n l e t . Some had got t h e i r own s k i f f s and nets cheaply when one of the canneries had closed down. They would row up to Kingcome or Rivers I n l e t {100 miles). For those who did not own their own gear, you could use the cannery's. The wife would take care of the farm i n the summer, but heavy work l i k e ploughing would be done by the men i n the spring. In f a l l , there was potato picking to be done. The crops were rotated with potatoes planted i n the newly cleared land, then carrots and f i n a l l y , the land was turned to pasture. Fields and pastures at that time were small and each spring we t r i e d to do a l i t t l e clearing to enlarge them. There were a l o t of horses on the i s l a n d . I remember the f i r s t horse born on the i s l a n d during the colonization company. It l i v e d to an old age and the man who owned him then did not make him work hard. If there was a large rock when they were ploughing, he would go and l i f t i t out of the way himself. I did my f i r s t f i s h i n g i n 1911, my father and I went to the Beaver cannery i n Rivers Inlet. We took the 'Queen City*, a Onion steamship, to get there. I was what they c a l l e d the 'boat p u l l e r ' - that was the guy who rowed the boat, my father set out the nets. The price that we got was ten cents per sockeye and that was the only f i s h they would take. The average weight of a sockeye was six pounds. In 1912, we went to the K i l l d a l a cannery, the price then was twelve and one-half cents. I 248 remember the best night we had was when we caught four hundred sockeye. We got exactly $50.00 for them. Sometimes though, t o t a l incomes from a summer's f i s h i n g only amounted to $50.00 or $100.00. One summer l i k e that we called a 'Brunswick summer', after the cannery where we were f i s h i n g . From 1922-1926, I worked i n the coop; i t was located where the l i b r a r y i s today. The business of the coop was not large. There was never a great i n f l u x of people to Sointula, just a t r i c k l e of friends and r e l a t i v e s . I bought a house i n the town in 1922 where the coop i s now. In 1923 I was married. The population then might have been up to three hundred. My oldest brother stayed on the farm and never got married. We had cleared f i v e acres by t h i s time. Later, the widow and three children of my other brother went to l i v e with him on the farm. One of the most important organizations to community l i f e was the Finnish Order (F.O. for short). The aim of the Canadian F.O. was to uphold the Finnish culture in Canada. I t was not p o l i t i c a l in that i t did not side with one party or another. I t s i d e a l was socialism and the pr i n c i p l e that people should l i v e together peacefully. There were many c u l t u r a l a c t i v i t i e s there, especially before the radio. In the h a l l there was always singing, dancing, and plays, a l l kinds of plays were put on such as dramas and comedies. Arguments were settled i n the F.O. If there was a fi g h t and one of the parties threatened to get the police we would get together and try and s e t t l e i t . Mackala often acted as the c o n c i l i a t o r - "the innate judge", we c a l l e d him. The F.O. took care of the graveyard, the public l i b r a r y , which was started i n 1902, The Club Hal l , which was b u i l t by 249 voluntary labour, and the playground. The coop also donated part of i t s p r o f i t s , before the rebate, to the l i b r a r y and graveyard. The F.O. arranged events for children. A group of children would get together with a few of the adult members and sing songs, write poems, and give speeches. Sometimes, there tiere debates held. For example, one of the topics was, "Is there any reason for Finnish to learn English i n Sointula?" One student would be f o r learning English, while another for the debate would be against i t . He also t r i e d to help with the schooling. There were few English books available here so we had an English language book club and would go over d i f f i c u l t passages together. The F.O. would have a general meeting once or twice a month. Not everyone belonged, but a major proportion of the community did. Over the period 1919-1938, the membership averaged over 100. The minimum age for membership was 18. In addition to i t s c u l t u r a l a c t i v i t i e s , the F.O. was helpful i n the beginning of the f i r s t logging and f i s h i n g unions that came about i n t h i s period. The F.O. was shut down by the government during the war and many of i t s documents were destroyed. {Note: English language education began i n Sointula i n 1904. U n t i l 1928, the school was a two room building having grades one to eight only. Very few students went beyond that. A new three room building, b u i l t in 1928, accommodated grades one to twelve and ran u n t i l the new high school i n Port McNeil was b u i l t in the l a t e 1960,-s. Education of childr e n by pro v i n c i a l correspondence courses i s s t i l l c a rried out i n remote areas of B.C. For example, several f a m i l i e s in Mitchell Bay on Malcolm 250 Island are educating t h e i r children i n t h i s way. A.B. Mackala who i s referred to, was a co-worker with Kurrika, on the same newspaper i n Helsinki. They collaborated on the current a f f a i r s monthly that was published in Sointula c a l l l e d "Aika", meaning time. In 1905, provoked by adverse p u b l i c i t y and under severe f i n a n c i a l s t r a i n , the colony s p l i t . The Kurrika faction l e f t the colony to re s e t t l e near Haney, B.C. Mackala stayed on. He played an important r o l e i n managing business a f f a i r s and l i v e d i n Sointula u n t i l his death i n 1932. The p o l i t i c a l organization aft e r the collapse of the colony, was associated with the s o c i a l Democratic Party of Canada. A ledger dated 1907, i n the Sointula museum, l i s t s the accounts kept of monthly dues. Also in the museum, i s a membership l i s t of the Finnish organization dated 1928 with 118 members l i s t e d . One other c u l t u r a l group not referred to was the physical education club.) In 1927, I l e f t Sointula to l i v e i n Vancouver. Like many young people today, I just wanted to get away from the v i l l a g e . I bought a home on payments there, but my wife became i l l with T.E. I came back to Sointula where i n 1928, she died of complications when pneumonia set i n . I decided then not to get married again. An ad i n the newspaper offered a job with the coop in Port William/Port Arthur (where there i s a large Finnish community). Hans Myntii and I both applied, but Hans got the job. I began working as a r i g s l i n g e r at the Nimpkish camp no. 9 (just across from Sointula, on Vancouver Island), and then I got a telegram from Fort William - I had got the job too! In 1931, I was transferred to the coop in Timmins. During 251 the depression, we had to price the goods very c a r e f u l l y . They were hard times, the hungry t h i r t i e s , but we managed, A s p l i t i n the coop occurred between the right - which started the consumers coop - and the l e f t - which started the workers coop. It was the chain stores though that hurt the coops most. They had the biggest selection of merchandise. I returned to Sointula i n 19*46; the population then was about 400. During the war, my neice who had been i n the HACS had been k i l l e d . There were quite a few cars here at that time, but no regular car ferry. The cars had to be unloaded by winch. One of the biggest improvements i n the v i l l a g e was the paving of the beach road because the cars made a l o t of dust on that old d i r t road. Horses were s t i l l being used at that time. The l a s t horse to be used was i n 1958. When I returned, I found that Hans Myntii was manager of the coop and he made me the butcher. I went f i s h i n g at Rivers Inlet that summer and I had the d i s t i n c t i o n of being the l a s t one from Sointula to go s k i f f f i s h i n g i n Rivers I n l e t ! I t was the Good Hope Cannery that I fished for. They s t i l l had f i f t e e n to twenty rowing s k i f f s besides t h e i r gas boats. Those s k i f f s were not even as good as in the old days because they did not have a s a i l . At the end of the season, the manager told me that I was the high man of the s k i f f s that year. Fishing had changed over the years. Rollers (for pull i n g the net) were introduced on s k i f f s i n the 1910*s. I t took a while to perfect them and I fished over the side for awhile. Laurie J a r v i s , here on the i s l a n d , had invented the power drum i n 1936 (this was a chain driven drum which wound up the net 252 using the power of the motor). I t took advantage of an opportunity created by the gas boats which were coming into use at t h i s time. The drum made these boats much more e f f e c t i v e because the net could be pulled i n faster and thus t h e i r greater mobility was of more use. The drum also made i t possible to p u l l i n the net during a storm which was previously very d i f f i c u l t . The gas boats, of course, used r o l l e r s right away. In the spring of 1947, I was logging by hand saw f a l l i n g . In the summer I went fi s h i n g at Goose Bay i n Bivers I n l e t , again on a s k i f f . Later that year, I worked for awhile as manager of the coop near Port Arthur. But i n 1S48, I was back at the i s l a n d f i s h i n g . In the winter, I would sometimes work at odd jobs. For example i n 1950 I was digging the holes for the telephone l i n e s that were being put i n . In 1951, I did store work f o r the Nelson brothers in Prince Rupert and i n 19 52, I had a coop near Sebster corner near Langley. I married again in 1952 i n Sointula. My wife had worked for twenty-one years as manager of Coops i n Finland. I bought a boat then; i t was a twenty-eight foot g i l l n e t t e r with a six horse power Easthope engine and a drum. It cost me f i v e hundred d o l l a r s , cash., I continued f i s h i n g u n t i l 1954, then I sold my boat for three hundred d o l l a r s and moved to Fort S i l l i a m to s t a r t a store. My eldest brother became i l l i n 1958 and I returned to Sointula. I soon got a job managing the cannery store at Goodhope in Rivers Inlet and l a t e r at Smith's In l e t . I t was very busy work at the height of the season, but f o r most of year i t was quiet and enjoyable. The home we are in now was bouqht in 1956. There were 4 0 253 vacant homes here at that time. We have been l i v i n g here ever since and just t h i s year celebrated our 25th anniversary. "Now l e t me ask you something", Mr. Tynjala said turning to the researcher. "What do you think of a l l the trouble i n the world today - the i n f l a t i o n and the wars? What we have t r i e d to do here was to create something d i f f e r e n t . The rest of the country could not be changed, they would not allow i t . We did build a peaceful community. That i s what Sointula means." A.2. Interpretaton and Analysis Much can be learned about Sointula from i t s history. The analysis w i l l be divided into two sections: 1} kinship and s o c i a l organization - the structure of primary s o c i a l groups on the i s l a n d ; 2) s o c i a l change, accommodation, and innovation i n response to economic v a r i a b i l i t y , ; A,2.1. Kinship and Soc i a l Organization In the Tynjala family there were seven children, f i v e brothers, and two s i s t e r s . The family farm which was bought i n 1912 was cleared slowly so that by 1923, there was s t i l l only f i v e acres. The eldest brother was the only one of the family to stay on the farm. The system known as primbgenture i n r u r a l agriculture i s involved i n the subdivision of farmland among offspring. Inheritance i s structured so that only the eldest son receives land. The other male s i b l i n g s are reguired to migrate, generally to the c i t i e s . Blehr (1963) found th i s system operating for the f i s h i n g / a g r i c u l t u r a l society of the Faroe Islands. Bennett (1969) finds that the younger sons of p r a i r i e 254 farm families are more i n c l i n e d towards education because they are aware fhat they w i l l be obligated to seek the type of employment where schooling i s manditory., k pattern of primogenture was observed i n some families in Sointula. The farm in the case of Mr. Tynjala*s elder brother and the f i s h i n g boat i n other families today i s willed to the eldest son. Mr. Tynjala himself began f i s h i n g at the age of 12, from the ages of 23 to 26 he gained valuable experience by working i n the cocp stores. This enabled him to obtain employment i n a variety cf locales throughout his adult l i f e . The reason Mr. Tynjala gives for f i r s t leaving was to get away from the i s l a n d and to see other places. In doing so, he t r a v e l l e d across Canada several times but he s t i l l maintained an involvement with the Finnish community. The practice of fraternate i s suggested by the fact that the widow and children of one of the brothers went to l i v e with the eldest on the farm. Such a practice suggests a high degree of s o l i d a r i t y between male s i b l i n g s . For Mr. Tynjala though, his strongest t i e was with a friend with whom he shared a s i m i l a r vocation and travels through the cooperative store system. Sointula with a population averaging less than 400 u n t i l after Horld Bar II had a large number of voluntary organizations dealing with c u l t u r a l , economic, and p o l i t i c a l functions. Lipset (1951), i n studying small p r a i r i e communities, described the process whereby the v a r i a b i l i t y i n harvests and the small size of the community obliges the formation of organizations f o r cooperation and the sharing of r i s k . I t i s from th i s base, he argues, that the p o l i t i c a l forms of p r a i r i e p o l i t i c s arose. 255 Insurance functions can also be ascribed to the Coop and c r e d i t union, ; They were organized at a very early stage i n the l i f e of the town. V a r i a b i l i t y i n revenues i s described by Mr. Tynjala who r e c a l l s the lean "Brunswick summers" as well as the one rare f i f t y d o l l a r night i n the 1910*s and 1920's. Contact with the outside world was established i n the i n i t i a l colony by the p u b l i c i s t s M. Kurikka and M.S. Hakela through the monthly newspaper Aika. Due to i t s small s i z e , ethnic uniformity, and good commmunications, the large number of community organizations that were formed i s not surprising. The fishermen's coop established i n Sointula was a seminal influence on organization of the industry in B r i t i s h Columbia. In the t h i r t i e s however, i d e o l o g i c a l d i v i s i o n s occurred in the Finnish community. Mr. Tynjala makes mention of these d i v i s i o n s at the Timmins coop in which he worked. 7.2.2. Adaptation and Change Patterns of migration have had an important e f f e c t on the small population of the community. Several factors can be suggested as responsible as influencing migration decisions. Primogenture i s a means of d i v i s i o n of land. However, farming was only of minor importance to the i s l a n d . Private f i s h i n g vessels were passed on by inheritance. Access to f i s h i n g boats was limited by\the necessity to acquire savings s u f f i c i e n t f o r th e i r purchase. Mr. Tynjala began f i s h i n g i n 1911 and i n 1946 resumed f i s h i n g as his main occupation. He was unable to purchase his own boat u n t i l 1953. Marriage, i t seems, was a stimulus to 'surplus production*. The fact that i t was 256 emphasized that a cash payment was made, indicates that the funds were available for sometime but uncommitted. Demographic constraints in small populations may be responsible for changes i n rules of exogamy (Damas 1969, Dyke 1971, 1973).,This means that there may not be enough e l i g i b l e marriage partners i n one's own age group to support the formation of families and sustain the population. Random variation i n age groups could lead to a population structure when marriage partners were i n short supply. The current sex r a t i o i n Sointula for the elementary school i s 29 males and 45 females. D i f f e r e n t i a l migration by sex could also bring about shortages. Indicators that t h i s i s a factor i s the occurrence of cousin marriage in Sointula and of marriages made during t r i p s to Finland. Economic fluctuations i s the t h i r d factor entering into migration decisions. Lack of p r o f i t a b i l i t y in logging enterprise has been l i s t e d as an important factor leading to the s p l i t up of the f i r s t colony. The opportunity of a better job seemed to be important i n motivating a number of the t r i p s from the isla n d taken by Mr. Tynjala. ahne he returned i n 1977, he noted that there was a high vacancy rate. In contrast to the current short supply of housing, there were about forty houses vacant i n 1966. a further indicator of the state of the population at that time i s the statement by a former owner of a l o c a l shipyard that the reason f o r his closure was the u n a v a i l a b i l i t y of labour. They desire to establish residence away from one's parents, in a new l o c a l i t y , may be a cause of migration. Like most young people, Mr. Tynjala observes that he wanted to get away from the 257 i s l a n d . Shortly af t e r marrying, he did move to Vancouver and established residence there. factors entering into migration decisions may be divided along the push/pull dichotomy. Patterns of inheritance, r e s t r i c t e d s o c i a l opportunities, and economic downturns are factors pushing an i n d i v i d u a l out. The attractions of urban area, employment opportunities, and the desire f o r t r a v e l can be typed as factors pulling an i n d i v i d u a l away from his community. Despite the lengthy periods of time which Mr. Tynjala spent away, he did inevitably return. Fishing was a mainstay of his employment during h i s residency. The cooperative store proved to be valuable in giving him opportunties i n other areas. The r e l a t i v e importance of the Coop was much greater before the opening of the Port McNeil shopping centres i n the 1970's. An e s s e n t i a l key to the accommodation of residents to v a r i a b i l i t y i n resources i s occupational pluralism. This e n t a i l s working in alternative employment to f i s h i n g such as logging and manual labour. Occupational pluralism i s well documented i n the survey studies of B r i t i s h Columbia coastal communities ( S i n c l a i r and Boland 1972) as well as i n Newfoundland ethnology (Matthews 1976) . About one-third of the fishermen of Sointula i n 1977 engage i n seasonal logging a c t i v i t y . Innovation i n a s o c i o - c u l t u r a l area was brought by migrants and l a t e r through the mass media. Social innovations i n the years before the war are evidenced i n a plethora of community organizations. In the more affl u e n t 1970's, an i n f l u x of young urban migrants without any ethnic attachment were not e n t h u s i a s t i c a l l y received. Their voice i n community 258 organizations i s gradually being heard. The structure of the f i s h i n g industry has gone through what can be conjectured as a r e p e t i t i v e cycle. Gerhardsen (1957) has hypothesized that boat building undergoes c y c l i c periods of heights i n a c t i v i t y and decline. Informants in Sointula pointed out that boat building had gone through three booms i n the years 1926-1928, 1947-1949, and 1973-1975. Evidence from the economic survey tends to support t h i s information. While no boats were sampled that had been b u i l t in the 1930»s, there were four seiners whose h u l l s dated to the period 1926-1928. For the years 1947-1949, evidence i s l e s s conclusive. There are a few g i l l n e t boats that were b u i l t then but as many were constructed i n the 1950's. For the l a s t period, s t a t i s t i c a l evidence from Hsu (1S76) suggests that the seine f l e e t increased rapidly. The average l i f e t i m e of the average h u l l of a g i l l n e t boat i s about 20 years. Thus, given a boom in the l a t e 1920's, the replacement of vessels would be reguired by the period of the l a t e 1940's., Three causes for a cycle in boat building may be put f o r t h : 1. I t was fueled by v a r i a b i l i t y in salmon stocks. 2. I t was caused by changes i n exogenous economic variables. 3. I t resulted from s o c i a l and technological innovations. Examining the f i r s t hypothesis, h i s t o r i c a l information (Lyons, 1965) documents that i n the mid-1920's, B.C. processing companies experienced high 'packs'.1973 was also a high year with three times the average number of chum salmon caught and 259 seine construction increased at t h i s time. Thus, hiqh harvests are associated with boat building. Economic variables can also be linked to the expansion of the boat building industry. Leading up to the stock market crash of 1929 was a chronic period of over capacity i n the f i s h i n g industry when a large number of remote canneries existed. The c e n t r a l i z a t i o n of the industry began in the 1930*s.. I t was associated with the cost cutting consolidation of the industry. The second period of boat building may have been stimulated by the demand created by a rapid increase i n the labor force after the war. In the t h i r d period, the licence l i m i t a t i o n program and technological perfection of the seine method were s t i m u l i to construction. Licencing opened the p o s s i b i l i t y to t r a n s f e r r a l from registered g i l l n e t s and t r o l l e r s to seiners. Speculation was generated by expectations of increasing revenues. With the record salmon catch of 1973, licence values reached $4,000.00 per ton i n the following year. A premium was placed on boats that could be purchased just f o r t h e i r licenced tonnage. These were smaller boats, probably just a few tons, whose licences could be used to complete those for large seiners. The peak catch year also generated larger revenues for the companies and fishermen. Bather than have them taxed o f f at high rates, investment i n boat building may have been used as an economic write-off. Boat buildng booms may be linked through the c r i s e s of ever c a p i t a l i z a t i o n to s o c i a l and techological change. Declining catches per vessel r e s u l t s in cost cutting measures being necessitated and increased competition between skippers for the 260 same catch. The community of Sointula has responded i n the past to such d i f f i c u l t i e s by s o c i a l and technological innovations. In the 1930*s, c o l l e c t i v e organizations were developed to represent the interest of fishermen and to u t i l i z e their power against f a l l i n g prices. Technological innovation in Sointula may be found i n the invention of the power drum., Mr. J a r v i s , a long time resident of Sointula b u i l t the f i r s t chain-driven g i l l n e t drum i n 1936. I t came into general use by the late 1940* s. The power seine drum was invented in the l a t e 1950*s coming in t o use l a t e i n the 1960*s. Technological innovation i n general has increased the c a p i t a l costs of f i s h i n g by adding eguipment expense. The e f f e c t of technological innovation i s once again to t i p the balance toward over-capacity and o v e r - c a p i t a l i z a t i o n . S o c i a l e f f e c t s are also f e l t in seining, for example, the power drum has meant that more sets could be made per day and i n many more types of weather and tide conditions.,As a r e s u l t , age has become less of a premium i n a seine skipper as accumulated knowledge of the use of the seine net has become less important. In contrast to the 1930*s, lowered stocks and revenues i n the late 1950*s and early 1960*s were not met by s o c i a l innovation. Hather, emigration from Sointula appears to have increased. A d i f f u s i o n of urban values into a t r a d i t i o n a l l y incapsulated community lowered the threshold for movement to the c i t i e s . Tying cause and e f f e c t together i n a simple feedback mcdel, i t can be conjectured that the c r i s e s of o v e r - c a p i t a l i z a t i o n i n the fishing industry are s e l f r e i n f o r c i n g . Once the cycle i s started by b i o l o g i c a l variations leading to high catch, over 261 capacity i n the industry occurs. The declining catch per unit e f f o r t stimulates technological innovation and t h i s i n turn causes even greater investments. , As boat vessel costs edge towards the i m p o s s i b i l i t y of f i n a n c i a l solvency, bankruptcy rates r i s e . Individual savings from good years cannot cushion the bad. Cost cutting measures force the retirement of economically marginal vessels from the f l e e t . As the labour force diminishes, union power r i s e s , creating a premium on labour. F i n a l l y , depreciation of older vessels reguires a new phase of boat building to increase capacity and provides a basis for another cycle. The f i n a l element i n the process i s the e f f e c t of government regulation. Increased e f f i c i e n c y i n gear causes regulations designed to reduce catch capacity and maintain stocks. For the g i l l n e t t e r , the pervasive use of the drum i n the 1940's and 1950*3 brought in regulation of length, depth, and mesh size at that time. Seiners, for which the conditions of technological advances and high investment have recently caused rapid expansion are not yet subject to extensive gear regulations. The implementation of license l i m i t a t i o n has been carried out i n such a way as to allow increased numbers of seiners. The r e s u l t i n g problems of regulation within the regional areas are considered i n depth i n appendix 2. 262 APPENDIX 2 LOCAL MANAGEMENT OF RESOURCES The aim of t h i s chapter i s to examine the problems of the management of the natural resources in the Sointula area. The focus i s regional stressing the s o c i a l , c u l t u r a l and economic character of user groups. Natural resources are distinguished as a b i o t i c and b i o l o g i c a l . These two components of the regional environment w i l l be considered f i r s t , followed by problems of resource policy that are more d i r e c t l y concerned with the human s o c i a l f a c t o r s . A.1 Abiotic Environment The p r i n c i p a l aspect of the physical environment capable of having a d r a s t i c e f f e c t on the marine resource base i s pol l u t i o n . In p a r t i c u l a r , the current public concern voiced i n the Best Coast O i l Ports Inguiry motivated a review of the impact of a s p i l l that had occurred four years e a r l i e r , as a case study of the issues in l o c a l control. An estimate of the magnitude of the s o c i a l and economic impact of such accidents on Sointula was made. A,1.1 The Events of the " I r i s h Stardust" O i l S p i l l A search of l o c a l and Vancouver newspapers was made to reconstruct the events of the what was the largest disturbance of the marine environment bounding Malcolm Island. On the night of January 24, 1973, the freighter I r i s h Stardust ran into 263 Haddington's Beef located midway between Sointula and Alert Bay. The h u l l was pierced and 120,000 gallons of bunker 11 e w o i l was released. By morning, the o i l had spread down Johnstone S t r a i t s as f a r as Hanson Island, twenty miles to the south. Experts from the Environmental Protection Service, Canadian B i l d l i f e Service and the Dept. of Fisheries were dispatched to the scene of the accident from Vancouver and Victoria..The greatest e f f e c t of the s p i l l was f e l t i n Alert Bay. The harbour, wharf, boats and beaches were covered by the o i l . Malcolm Island i t s e l f was l i t t l e affected with only a small section of Donegal Head being touched by the o i l . The d i r e c t i o n of spread of the o i l was determined by the tide i n the channel, which at the time of the s p i l l was to the south. The clean up proceed over the next months and involved the recruitment of l o c a l students, as well as, the assistance of a Vancouver-based marine p o l l u t i o n control firm. Total costs for the clean up were reported as between $400,000 and $500,000. Newspaper coverage of the event was as a front page story nation-wide, and follow up s t o r i e s continued over the period of the clean up. Damage to the f i s h stocks were reported as minimal. The major salmon r i v e r i n the area i s the Nimpkish. The o i l s p i l l was not large enough to spread up the r i v e r . The danger from thi s would have been damage to the chum salmon spawning beds. Unlike the najor run of sockeye which spawns on the upper reaches of the r i v e r system, the chum spawn near the mouth of the r i v e r . 264 A.1.2 Potential Damages from a Major O i l S p i l l The amount of o i l s p i l t i n the I r i s h Stardust accident Mas r e l a t i v e l y small i n comparison to the major tanker di s a s t e r s . S p i l l s such as from the Torrey Caynon have involved as much as one million gallons of o i l . An assessment of the potential damages i n terms of the current value of the natural resources and the longer term s o c i o - c u l t u r a l and economic e f f e c t s was made. Though the sointula/Alert Bay area does not l i e d i r e c t l y on a tanker route, the geographical and b i o l o g i c a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of the community and the f i s h i n g economy are s i m i l a r to those in the high r i s k , northern coast areas. Fifteen miles to the east and north of Sointula are the small islands and channels that lead to Kingcome and Knight's Inlets. Important salmon r i v e r s dischage into these i n l e t s . I f a large guantity of o i l had been s p i l t i t could have been carried by t i d a l currents into these channels. fAn estimate of the annual resource value of these areas (1974 Area #12 annual report) i s : clams: $150,000 sports f i s h i n g : $200,000 salmon: $2 to 3,000,000 herring: $ 1 - 2 m i l l i o n t o t a l : $3.35 - 5.35 m i l l i o n The clam fishing i s conducted on G i l f o r d i s l a n d and provides employment primarily for Indian labour. In February, the channels are f u l l of young salmon, p a r t i c u l a r l y sockeye. These are c a l l e d g r i l s e , a juvenile stage of the salmon l i f e cycle, and they feed i n the area of the stream mouth before moving out to sea. Damage to the annual stock of region's 265 streams could be expect to be high. Herring would also be endangered by the o i l . The roe fishery takes place i n February and a number of herring f i s h i n g grounds are located i n the i n l e t s . Penning of herring i s also c a r r i e d out with several new permits being granted to l o c a l fishermen t h i s yeari.This method involves the the e n c i r c l i n g of a school of herring with a seine net before they are ready to spawn. When they do spawn, the eggs adhere to the kelp, and both are gathered up. This method i s p a r t i c u l a r l y vulnerable to damage from o i l . An accidental discharge of a few hundred gallons of o i l occurred near a herring pen, located by the Queen Charlotte community of Hasset, this year. Damages were awarded to the owner amounting to $50,000. Indian fishermen are especially dependent on herring f i s h i n g . An estimate of the degree of dependence was made by one of the community leaders. One-third of the Indian fishermen are kept from bankruptcy by the herring f i s h e r y , he calculated. Further d e t a i l s on the Simpkish Band and regional policy are presented later i n t h i s section. Sports f i s h i n g , while more limited i n the Johnstone S t r a i t s area, than for Campbell River to the south, has been increasing rapidly. Most recent s t a t i s t i c s (Hsu 1976) show that f i v e thousand boat days of f i s h i n g occurred i n area #12. There i s also a f i s h i n g resort on Minstrel Island. Lastly, large costs f o r beach cleaning could be expected. The expense of the I r i s h Stardust s p i l l of $4-$500,000, was mainly for the cleaning of the harbour of A l e r t Bay. Thousands of miles of beach would be affected i n a major s p i l l and even a p a r t i a l cleanup could be expected to involve several times t h i s 266 expenditure. The Alert Bay cleanup was carried out throughly i n the commercial and residental waterfronts. A s p i l l c arried to Sointula would require s i m i l a r extensive cleaning. The settlement pattern has dozens of miles of r e s i d e n t i a l waterfront property. There i s also the breakwater with the commercial f i s h i n g f l e e t , the f e r r y docks and about one dozen boat houses s t i l l i n use, along the waterfront. The t o t a l costs from a major s p i l l could be i n the area of $5-$10,000,000, exclusive of future costs r e s u l t i n g from long term damage to the salmon, herring and clams. The e f f e c t s of o i l damange to the environment must also be assessed i n terms of the sp e c i a l s o c i a l and c u l t u r a l features of the two island f i s h i n g communities. The importance of the marine resources to the communities deserves s p e c i a l consideration for two reasons., F i r s t the economy of the Indian band i s dependent on a food fishery. Fish caught under the food f i s h i n g permit cannot be sold and must be used for personal consumption. In 1973, for example, ten thousand salmon were caught by the Nimpkish band for food. The absence of these f i s h would have a di r e c t impact on the household consumption for the people l i v i n g in the Nimpkish reservation on Alert Bay. O i l spreading to the i n l e t s would further a f f e c t the food f i s h i n g areas of the Kingcome Inlet reserve (pop. 400) and the Hamillakula reserve (pop. 200). There i s no data on the r e l a t i v e importance of food that i s d i r e c t l y fished or hunted to the budget of the Indian fam i l i e s . Studies c o l l a t e d by the Berger Inquiry (1977) suggest that i n the A r c t i c "bush food" may contribute one t h i r d or more of t o t a l consumption i n some bands. Best coast fi s h i n g cultures 267 may have a d i f f e r e n t degree of dependence on harvested foods, but i t i s l i k e l y that more remote communities and lower income sectors have a considerable dependence on caught food, i n addition to having food make up a higher proportion of the t o t a l family budget.• The second reason why environmental damage to Indian used resources merits s p e c i a l consideration, i s the current status of land claims negotiations. The B.C. treaty settlements were negotiated at considerably less land than i n the Western provinces. One of the reasons given was the geography and marine resources of the area (Cummings and Mickenberg 1972). The federal government has given some indications of the v a l i d i t y of the principles of aboriginal rights through the Nishga case. Land settlements are now being negotiated with A r c t i c bands and the t r e a t i e s some of the western provinces are being re-negotiated so that present r i g h t s conform with the " s p i r i t " i n which they were signed. The Nimpkish band i s currently researching i t s h i s t o r i c a l pattern of resource u t i l i z a t i o n . The band maintains a land claims o f f i c e and the Native Brotherhood, a land claims committee, As a r e s u l t of the changing government policy and s o c i a l mobilisation about the issue, expectations of decisions granting a greater share and some ownership to the resource i s r i s i n g among the band members. An environmental catastrophe such as a major s p i l l would be a dramatic blow to these expectations. Disillusionment and hardening of positions vis a v i s the non-native community in Alert Bay could be expected. As Briton (1965) points out, i t i s net a history of continued disadvantage which sparks c o n f l i c t , but the 268 disappointment of r i s i n g expectations. S o c i a l conseguences entering into the damages of an o i l s p i l l are d i r e c t l y related to the r e s i d e n t i a l s t a b i l i t y of the area. Census and survey data indicate that over f i f t y percent of the families i n Sointula had resided there for f i f t e e n years or more. Inspection of the tax roles shows that most property i s owned by residents. Any depression of property values would be absorbed by resident owners. Revenues l o s t by fishermen would p a r t i c u l a r l y a f f e c t Sointula and Alert Bay residents. A large proportion of g i l l n e t t e r s and a l l of the older fishermen are l o c a l i z e d i n area 12. In p a r t i c u l a r , the north shore of Malcolm Island i s extensively u t i l i z e d by Sointula boats. Local fishermen would suffe r the heaviest loss of income from environmental damage. A portion of the community, about twenty percent, are residents of f i v e years or less. Their response to a l e s s of employment i n f i s h i n g could be expected i n terms of out-migration. An older, retirement or near retirement aged population could not be expected to leave i n great numbers. Of the middle aged group, because of the large investment i n i n f i s h i n g vessels and eguipment, a number would be expected to lose t h e i r boats with a drop of f i f t y percent or greater of the average annual catch. In summary, damages would be borne immediately by l o c a l residents. Compensation for losses incurred could not be expected to be returned to the community by l i t i g a t i o n , in the short run. L i t i g a t i o n surrounding the I r i s h Stardust incident i s s t i l l continuing four years a f t e r i t s occurence. 269 A.2 Renewable Eesources The focus i n t h i s section i s resource management issues of concern to the community. Three examples of problem areas i n which f i s h e r i e s management i s the central issue, w i l l be presented. These are: 1) salmon enhancement, 2) the area #27 controversy, 3) chum management committee. A.2.1 Enhancement A majority of those fishermen questioned on the future of the f i s h i n g industry mentioned the enhancement program. The salmon enhancement program as announced by the Minister of Fisheries i s to involve an expenditure of three hundred and f i f t y m i l l i o n d o l l a r s of a period of ten years. The aim i s to double the salmon catch through a diverse program involving hatcheries, f i s h ladders, stream clearance and upwelling boxes. In response to the question - M What do you think the future of f i s h i n g w i l l be?" - the most frequent answer expressed optimism toward the health of the industry, makinq p a r t i c u l a r reference to the salmon enhancement program. Concern however was widespread over the future of the stocks i n the Fraser Eiver due to increased i n d u s t r i a l p o l l u t i o n . Some argued that the more remote areas such as the ce n t r a l and south c e n t r a l regions around Sointula, merited s p e c i a l attention because of the lack of i n d u s t r i a l development. Recall by fisherman of the siz e of the salmon runs in the past did not always indicate that the stocks had been 270 decreasing. One r e t i r e d fisherman recounted - "The biggest catch I ever made was in Rivers Inlet i n 1973" - r e f e r r i n g to the exceptionally large f a l l chum salmon run of that year. In assessing such r e c a l l of h i s t o r i c a l catches, i t must be borne in mind that the e f f i c i e n c y of l i n e and net gear i n catching f i s h has progressed over the years. Older fishermen although were not generally as o p t i m i s t i c about the enhancement program as younger ones. For example, one of them pointed out a l o c a l stream - the Kakweikan - which was clogged by a rock s l i d e . Though surveyed forty years ago, stream clearance, he said, had not yet been completed. Freguent mention with regard to enhancement was to l o c a l r i v e r s and streams that were f e l t to be suitable for the program. These included the Nimpkish,Kakweikan and Cluxewe. Fishermen gave a variety of reasons that they thought could cause a decline i n stocks. These were overfishing, destruction of spawning beds by logging companies and "poaching" or f i s h i n g outside the l i m i t s . The l a t t e r practice was looked down upon by the Sointula community. One seining family had several years ago "poached" i n a nearby stream by f i s h i n g beyond a boundary. Soon the whole community knew about i t and ostracized them. "No one would talk to them fo r a month," said one informant. Poaching represented a particular danger to smaller streams, because the entire run could be fished out. On Malcolm Island i t s e l f there are several small streams. One empties less than a hundred yards from the breakwater and s t i l l has a few salmon returning to i t every year. Though i n s i g n i f i c a n t i n terms of catch, t h e i r presence gave the f i s h e r i e s o f f i c e r the power to stop a developer from building on the l o t through which the stream ran. 271 a public inquiry (Environment Canada, Fisheries and Marine Service 1977) has been held to provide a forum for the epxression of opinions of community members on the program. I t served to increase awareness among fishermen of future govermental plans. The nearest meeting was i n Port Hardy. ,Of the twenty-one presentations, only four were made by fishermen. The issues that they mentioned most frequently were the need for more enforcement, more education, more interagency cooperation and public p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n projects. While not representing a s i g n i f i c a n t sample of opinion from the area's fishermen, the prevalence of opinions concerning on policy rather than implementation seems c h a r a c t e r i s t i c of the observations that were made in Sointula. One i n d i v i d u a l did have s p e c i f i c ideas for the implementation of the program i n l o c a l communities. He was a man in his f o r t i e s and was returning to f i s h i n g a f t e r an absence of four years. He thought that l i c e n c i n g should require several weeks of labour to be contributed to l o c a l enhancement projects. Local stream clearing in the Sointula area has been organized by the f i s h e r i e s o f f i c e r i n the past. Labour f o r t h i s task was p r i n c i p a l l y recruited from the Indian community. The f i s h e r i e s o f f i c e r f e l t that there was a willingness to work on such projects which were related to the protection of the salmon. I n i t i a l funds for the enhancement program were f i r s t advertised i n the area i n the late summer. This was a small budget program of f i f t y thousand dollars to a s s i s t community organisations undertaking stream surveys, c l e a r i n g or the i n s t a l l a t i o n of upwelling boxes. ,. Some interest i n t h i s was 272 expressed by the l o c a l women*s a u x i l l i a r y of the union, but access to the f i s h e r i e s personnel was limited at t h i s time, the height of the fish i n g season. With only two f i e l d o f f i c e r s i n the area, there was a lack of supervisory personnel. The existence of such organisations as regional planning committees, and the union may be a f a c i l i t a t i n g factor i n enhancement-related projects. The involvement of residents in projects whose objectives are to increase salmon adds further to r i s i n g expectations. A long term view i s es s e n t i a l i n implementing the program, otherwise only token regional benefits may result. localism among fishermen exists because at least one t h i r d of the Sointula f l e e t i s made up what i s c o l l o g u i a l l y c a l l e d the "home guard". Older fisermen, p a r t i c u l a r l y those nearing retirement who are unable to undertake long t r i p s , compose most of the home guard; As well, some of the seiners show a preference for f i s h i n g around Malcolm Island and Johnstone S t r a i t s . I t i s only the t r o l l e r s that t r u l y can be said to range over the whole B.C. coast. The enhancement of small streams reguires that a l l species be enhanced or the resul t i n g increased fi s h i n g e f f o r t w i l l drive the natural stocks to extinct i o n . Anticipation of higher stocks may create more f i s h i n g pressure, the application of which i s d i f f i c u l t to regulate i n small areas. These factors - localism plus the need to r e s t r i c t e f f o r t applied to enhanced streams - suggests the policy of area r e s t r i c t i o n may be applicable. This i s a very contentious issue. The prevalent f e e l i n g i n Sointula seems to be against t h i s p o l i c y . The reason as put by one g i l l n e t t e r , i s that 273 unrestricted f i s h i n g allows one to move to another locale i f fi s h i n g i s poor. This opinion was expressed by a small scale g i l l n e t t e r , but a sim i l a r position was held by a young seine skipper. "We go wherever the f i s h are", he said. The annual meeting of the UFAWO i n February 1977 showed a d i v i s i o n the Sointula l o c a l , i n p a r t i c u l a r , submitted a resolution against any form of area r e s t r i c t i o n . The Bella Coola l o c a l submitted a resolution proposing the establishment of a system of area r e s t r i c t i o n s . Bella Coola i s located at the head of a long i n l e t , in the cen t r a l coast region. It was o r i g i n a l l y established by Norwegian immigrants, G i l l n e t t t e r s make up a large majority of i t s f l e e t . Reasons of geography and economy thus underly the Bella Coola proposal. Any policy of area r e s t r i c t i o n w i l l be of benefit to l o c a l i z e d f i s h i n g and of disadvantage to those vessels depending on the freedom of a wide range of fi s h i n g grounds.,Besides the home guard i n Sointula, there i s a small f l e e t of ten g i l l n e t t e r s which f i s h exclusively in Kingcome i n l e t . Together with the Sointula heme guard there i s about two or three dozen boats f i s h i n g exclusively i n area #12. The issue of who i s to benefit from the resource creates discord i n the application of p o l i c i e s aimed so l e l y at the conservation of the f i s h e r i e s resource. A mechanism by which l o c a l p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n regional management can take place has recently been evolved for area #12. This has s h i f t e d attention away from d i v i s i v e issues to that of the c r i t i e r i a f o r the management to maximize the benefit to the whole area. This committee - the Chum Management - w i l l be described below along 274 with recent controversies i n l o c a l management A.2,2 The Area #27 Controversy A controversy i n the 1977 f i s h i n g season developed which revealed another facet of regional management - competition between areas f o r access to the migrating salmon stocks, Salmon as they return from the open ocean, go around both corners of northern Vancouer Island i n heading for the spawning r i v e r s . Area #27 i s located i n the northern segment of the West Coast of Vancouver Island. Begional b i o l o g i s t s had recommended early i n 1976 that the area be closed i n July on the basis of two facts . The f i r s t was believed that the r a t i o of sockeye salmon from ncn-Fraser r i v e r s to Fraser r i v e r f i s h was 80:20. The second was that of the non-Fraser sockeye, the principle stocks were the Bivers, Smiths and Nimp.ki.sh. The Nimpkish sockey stock had suffered a high mortality from fungus on the spawning grounds in 1973. To ensure adeguate escapement of Nimpkish sockeye for the current year no f i s h i n g of the stocks in area #27 was recommended. The general procedure of harvesting the stocks i n t h e i r respective r i v e r mouth areas was to be followed. Confidential documents substantiating the basis f o r these recommendations were given to the Nimpkish band land claims committee in March 1977. Bepresentatives of the Band and the native brotherhood. They met with f i s h e r i e s o f f i c i a l s i n Vancouver who offered the following r a t i o n a l for leaving area #27 open to f i s h i n g . F i r s t l y area #27 i s a prime region f o r the interception of salmon before they reach the waters covered by the b i l a t e r a l convention where they must be shared equally 275 between the D.S. and Canada. Secondly scale sampling would be taken to determine more accurately the proportion of Fraser/non-Fraser sockeye salmon. The Band and the Native Brotherhood demanded that the area be closed because the Nimpkish f i s h were of great importance for food. The f i n a l action taken by the Brotherhood was to telegram t h e i r complaint to the Minister of Fisheries. The reply stated that one of the reasons area #27 was being opened was that the riv e r was 80% Fraser and 205S ncn-Fraser, just the opposite to what the l o c a l b i o l o g i s t s reported. The position taken by the UFAWU i n Vancouver was to recommend that the area be open because of the interception problem. In Sointula, three seine skippers were interviewed on t h i s question. Two younger fishermen with highly mobile patterns, argued they should be l e f t open to anyone who went there. They went i n the f i r s t week of July to f i s h i n t h i s area. The t h i r d an older fisherman i n his l a t e f o r t i e s , argued that i t should be closed because; A) the f i s h i n g l i n e was set so close to shore that i t was almost impossible to f i s h l e g a l l y . He also said that they should not have to go a l l the way to the Hest Coast to catch l o c a l f i s h . Other fishermen and the f i s h e r i e s o f f i c e r confirmed that there was much i l l e g a l f i s h i n g going on in that area and i t was d i f f i c u l t to patrol the area. (The penalty for fi s h i n g beyond the l i n e can be confiscation of the beat and up to one year i n j a i l . Inadvertant i n f r a c t i o n s are usually delt with by having to release or dump the catch).. The controversy i l l u s t r a t e s several points about areal management. The p r i o r i t i e s for the d i v i s i o n of the catch between 276 areas may take precedence over those derived from analysis of best escapement. The policy chosen suggests the order of p r i o r i t y i s Canadian fishermen f i r s t , Fraser r i v e r fishermen second, and area #12 fishermen, t h i r d . There also i s disagreement between b i o l o g i s t s and policy makers within the Fisheries department and t h i s i s evident to t h e i r c l i e n t s . This discord i s apparent i n the disclosure of documents that had been kept c o n f i d e n t i a l . The b i o l o g i c a l s c i e n t i s t s recommended a di f f e r e n t policy than that ultimately implemented by the area supervisors. A.2.3 The Chum Management Committee A protest meeting gathered i n the summer of 1976 at the Namgis House community center i n Ale r t Bay. Representatives of fishermen i n Sointula, A l e r t Bay, Port Hardy as well as fishermen from more distant ports came to the meeting..During the early f a l l , area #12 i s one of the best opportunities for making large catches and there were one hundred seiners and two hundred and f i f t y g i l l n e t t e r s here i n 1976, The subject of the protest was the f i s h e r i e s regulations f o r the f a l l run of the chum salmon. The f i s h i n g was only going to be allowed for a few days out of two weeks. 1972 had been a good year and i n 1973 the chum run was the largest i n history. The protest meeting had been planned for weeks and Mr. R. , the head of the regional f i s h e r i e s o f f i c e had been watching i t s progress c a r e f u l l y . Rumour had i t that fishermen were going to go out and set th e i r nets despite the regulations. With only two p a t r o l boats a v a i l a b l e , they could not be stopped. Mr. R. had 277 phoned his regional supervisor i n Vancouver who formulated a plan. The f i s h e r i e s o f f i c e r went to the protest meeting and proposed that a public consultative meeting be set up which would involve fishermen from Sointula, Al e r t Bay and the southern f l e e t . The protest was quelled and early the next day two of the area's best known fishermen flew down to Vancouver as representatives. In 1977, a permanent consultative body was set up - the management committee. As or g i n a l l y conceived by the department, i t was to be an advisory organ of concerned fishermen without representation from the union, or Native Brotherhood. I t s present composition i s made up of fourteen members. Six of these are fishermen - two from the OFAwO, l o c a l representatives from Sointula, one Native Brotherhood member from Alert Bay, a representative of the Fraser River G i l l n e t t e r s Association, one fisherman from Pender Harbour and one from Campbell River. An industry representative i n the person of the manager of a l o c a l processing plant was discussed by the committee but rejected as "too p o l i t i c a l " . , The eight ether members are a l l from the Fisheries Dept. The committee makes i t s decision by simple majority vote. In 1977, a f i n a l meeting w i l l take place i n l a t e summer to decide on the management policy for the f a l l chum salmon run. The p r i n c i p a l issue i s the d i v i s i o n of the catch between areas. Two points w i l l be presented to the committee f o r discussion: 1) The t o t a l catch of 715,00 for 1977 may be regulated by open fi s h i n g in Johnstone S t r a i t s , open in the gulf of Georgia for g i l l n e t t i n g only, and closed o f f i n the rest of the coast as f a r 278 as Johnstone s t r a i t s ; 2) r e t a i n the two out of ten day opening period. The committee meetings are held i n the Dept. o f f i c e s i n Vancouver with the fishermen f l y i n g down from the outlying regions. A precedent exists for t h i s form of public p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n the Skeena r i v e r management area. This committee d i f f e r s only in including industry representatives. The f i s h e r i e s department has announced that i t intends to expand these committees to cover a l l of the salmon species., A.3 Social and Economic Factors i n Local Fisheries Management A.3.1 Social Factors Of a l l the issues of concern to Sointula fibermen, the most contentious i s that of aboriginal resource r i g h t s . "They're going to give i t a l l to the Indians" i s a sentiment that i s occasionally expressed. There are no Indian families on Malcolm Island though land granted as a reservation exists on the eastern t i p of the i s l a n d . The p a r t i c i p a t i o n of area fishermen in the management committee has served to i n i t i a t e a s h i f t i n the focus from the issue of a l l o c a t i o n of resources within the region to the setting of p r i o r i t i e s for u t i l i z a t i o n between regions. In p a r t i c u l a r , i t has re-inforced i n t e r e s t in the development of the economy of the two i s l a n d f i s h i n g communities. This i s a view taken by Mr.C.F. , an important leader of the Alert Bay community. The north Island environment i s considered the homeland of the native peoples. The land claims movement i n general i s concerned with the development of 279 the regional economcy to the long term benefit of the Indian peoples. A s p e c i f i c resources claim has not yet been presented. A focus on the problem of regional economic development lends i t s e l f to r a t i o n a l examination and and discussion among i s l a n d residents. Already the aguaculture project, ship master's c e r t i f i c a t e , safety and boat design seminars, and net mending workshops can be pointed to as events happening on the reserve but providing services to both i s l a n d communities. Plans are being discussed f o r fresh f i s h processing f a c i l i t i e s and enhancement projects may also o f f f e r opportunities to l o c a l people. To Sointula, the management committee represents a hoped for change i n attitude by the Fisheries Department toward the acceptance of input from fishermen., "They're sta r t i n g to ask us for help", said one fisherman with pride. News of the setting up a mechanism for public p a r t i c i p a t i o n i s widely known. The representatives have well informed themselves on the issues and on the techniques and costs i n the other forthcoming project -enhancement. Upwelling boxes are p a r t i c u l a r l y favoured because of ther apparent success i n f i e l d t r i a l s , low cost and si m p l i c i t y of construction. The good reception the Malcolm Islanders gave to the concept of the management committee i s i n sharp contrast to the persistent and deep antipathy that normally e x i s t s with the Dept. of Fisheries. Inaccurate perceptions of each others roles characterize the relationship. An underlying cause f o r the c o n f l i c t i s the rapid growth of an urban bureaucracy of the Fisheries Dept. r e l a t i v e to i t s f i e l d s t a f f . L i t t l e contact 280 seems to e x i s t between Vancouver based planners and the outlying communities such as Sointula. One fisherman expressed his concern i n t h i s way. - "He are i u s t part of the machine that catches and transports f i s h to the c i t y . We're not seen as human beings" . Another said - "We are just l i k e ditch-diggers, though with very expensive shovels". On the part of the management agency, i t i s a l l too common to denegrate c u l t u r a l or socio-economic concerns as due to "bleeding heart l i b e r a l s " . I t i s against t h i s context that the positive attitude toward public p a r t i c i p a t i o n should be seen. The necessity for contact and communication between fishermen and the Fisheries Department i s increasing. Shorter openings require the fisherman to be kept well informed of the areas available. Economic and educational programs are having an increasing importance i n the o v e r a l l management a c t i v i t y . In agriculture there i s a formal recognition of the s p e c i a l problems of communication with the c l i e n t s and t h i s i s dealt with under the rubric of "extention work". Such attention needs to be paid to the s i m i l a r communication problems i n the f i s h e r i e s . Sointula i s facing the p o s s i b i l i t y of rapid change in the future. The highway connection to the south w i l l be completed i n a year and w i l l bring i t closer to the sphere of urban a c t i v t i y . A recreational pattern of development as in the Gulf Islands may be expected to assert i t s e l f . Sports f i s h i n g , has been doubling in area #12, each year since 1972. Through the growth i n tourism, recreation, shopping and education t r a d i t i o n a l values and attitudes w i l l be altered, A faster tempo of decision-making in land markets and r e a l estate development i s already 281 occurring. The t r a d i t i o n a l response of the people of the community to change has been occupational pluralism and migration., A readaptation of the forms of community partic i p a t i o n t r a d i t i o n a l l y present i n Sointula i s also taking place. The regional advisory planning committee has three members who are fishermen, two of whom are from older families of several generations residence on the island. They s i t on the Coop boards as well, and have long experience the problems of organizing change on the isl a n d . The planning committee i s being used with the aim of creating a village-wide forum i n which development plans can be aired and the expression of a range of opinions registered.,Two further factors weigh i n favour of the encouragement of indigenous organisation and i n t e r e s t s . The f i r s t i s a large in-migration of middle c l a s s urbanites. The second i s the e f f e c t of communication media and spin-off e f f e c t s from the environmental c o n f l i c t s i n the United States, As shown in chapter four, a migration of young adults into Sointula has occurred at a heightened rate since 1971..Though individuals who appeared to deviate widely from s o c i a l norms were met with general h o s t i l i t y , those who stayed for a period of years are gradually being accepted. In being accepted they are also bringing change., The point to be emphasized i s that some of them bring s k i l l s and knowledge necessary f o r communicating and operating within a structure framed by an urban bureaucracy. Such i n d i v i d u a l s who indicated plans for long term residence included a PhD i n nuclear physics, a h i s t o r i a n , a former aerospace engineer, several school teachers, a former Fisheries department b i o l o g i s t and a college teacher. These 282 professionals have a l l migrated i n the l a s t seven years. Their experience i n coping with the rules and procedures of large organisations suggest that they may be an important innovating force. The a b i l i t y of small communities to r e s i s t the intrusion of environmentally damaging large scale projects has been dramatized frequently i n the news media in recent years. The cessation of offshore d r i l l i n q i n Santa Barbara, protests against nuclear power projects, and the Berger Commission i l l u s t r a t e the theme of the small community i n opposition to outside development. An anti-development po l a r i z a t i o n i s not a consensus view i n Sointula, but the increased p u b l i c i z a t i o n of the problem of r u r a l communities i s regarded with great in t e r e s t . They are f a m i l i a r with newspaper reporters who have come on many occasions attracted by the unique history,location and ethnic character. A recent example i s the news coverage of the effects of the North Island highway which focused on the reaction of residents i n Sointula. Over the years, the community has acguired the knowledge needed for p u b l i c i z i n g i t s point of view, A.3.2 Economic Factors That the economy of Sointula i s dependent on the f i s h i n g industry, i s well documented.. The results of the employment p r o f i l e of the household survey were cross-validated through the school survey, Canada cenusus, and union l i s t s . The majority of heads of households are involved in f i s h i n g . Although logging i s the p r i n c i p l e industry i n the North Island, Sointula and Alert 283 Bay are unique areas of concentration of the f i s h i n g industry. The f l e e t of seventy vessels i s not homogeneous but i s divided into three gear types. Comparison of t h e i r economic e f f i c i e n c i e s showed that gillnet/combination vessels were competitive with the seiners i n the present state of the industry. The p r o v i n c i a l trend i s toward a decreasing number of g i l l n e t t e r s and increases in the numbers of seiners. Eguipment costs have ris e n rapidly for both g i l l n e t t e r s and seiners but a large proportion of the g i l l n e t f l e e t i s older vessels which have r e l a t i v e l y higher repair and replacement costs. Licencing has r e s t r i c t e d investment i n the g i l l n e t f l e e t and savings from recent peak years and expectations of future p r o f i t s have resulted i n investment being chanelled i n t o seiners. Their greater technological e f f i c i e n c y and less r e s t r i c t i v e gear regulations w i l l mean that as the proportion of c a p i t a l costs to annual operating expences drops, t h e i r annnual e f f i c i e n c y w i l l r i s e . Such change i n the c a p i t a l to labour r a t i o w i l l decrease employment opportunities i f the t o t a l invested i n the f l e e t does not increase, fewer f i s h i n g jobs w i l l undermine the basis for the economy of the i s l a n d , Eguity considerations i n such change may also have widespread e f f e c t s toward the p o l a r i z a t i o n of an owner and a labour sector. The increased cost of financing vessels w i l l also undermine the t r a d i t i o n of independent ownership i n Sointula f i s h i n g . The pattern of development seems s i m i l a r to that of the forest industry where "security of supply" j u s t i f i e d the elimination of the small logger through the "tree farm lice n c e " instrument of sustained y i e l d objectives (Pearse 1976:vol 1). A 284 company or private boat heavily indebted i s under greater pressure to deliver to only one company., G i l l n e t t e r s , combinations and t r o l l e r s , by contrast s e l l to the highest bidder. Sointula men describe themselves and are regarded by outsiders, as independent and free from company control. ..Their f l e e t today i s self-owned for the most part, much more so than in Alert Bay. I t i s doubtful that the s h i f t i n gear types that i s occurring under current resource management p o l i c i e s can be j u s t i f i e d s o l e l y i n terms of economic e f f i c i e n c y . A.4 Conclusions : Local Management of Local Resources? Can l o c a l communities exert control over natural resource u t i l i s a t i o n ? If f e a s i b l e , would such control be desireable? The degree of outside control of the marine resources of Sointula/Alert Bay can be appreciated by comparing the r e t a i l market value and the revenue accruing to fishermen. Total revenue to fishermen in the area can be roughly estimated by using the B.C. Packers average of $50,000 per seiner. For the f i f t y l o c a l seines t h i s y i e l d s a figure of 2.5 m i l l i o n d o l l a r s . One hundred g i l l n e t s and t r o l l e r s contribute another 1 m i l l i o n . Thus a rough estimate of the t o t a l gross revenue from of Sointula and Alert Bay fishermen i s 3.5 m i l l i o n d o l l a r s . In area #12, 23 m i l l i o n pounds of salmon and 10 million of herring were taken i n the l a s t . This amounts to a f i n a l market value, using a rough figure of one dollar/pound, of 30 m i l l i o n d o l l a r s . The opinion that small and r u r a l are better i s current i n the writings of notably, of Schumacher (1973), as well as, many others. A contrasting view that c r i t i c i z e s the provincialism and 285 backwardness of the r u r a l sector i s t y p i f i e d by Marx's comment of "the idiocy of r u r a l l i f e " . Indeed, even t c one g i l l n e t t e r i n Sointula, f i s h i n g from a f l o t t i l a of small boats did seem i r r a t i o n a l , when a f i x e d f a c i l i t y could catch the f i s h more e f f i c i e n t l y . The organisation of Sointula bestowed a t r a d i t i o n of independence. Many families were able to maintain a continuity of employment and residence i n the community. Cooperatively organised beyond the family l e v e l was the d i s t r i b u t i o n of food and r e t a i l commodities, c r e d i t , labour, and recreation and c u l t u r a l a c t i v i t i e s . This autonomy characterized the community in i t s f i r s t decades. Individualism and factionalism seemed to grow and wane in cycles over i t s history. Most important to the s u r v i v a l of the community was the i n d i v i d u a l c a p a b l i t i e s of occupational pluralism and migration to take advantage of opportunities. The expansion of the sphere of urban control was marked i n the 1950*s and 60*s by the growth of transport and communication f a c i l i t i e s , which followed on the c e n t r a l i s a t i o n of the f i s h processing plants. Increasing urban intrusion can be expected i n the future. Whether the t r a d i t i o n a l community forms should be preserved i s a guestion that requires a value judgement on t h e i r superiority. However, the p r i n c i p l e that the people should have a voice i n t h e i r future i s a basic democratic i d e a l . The resettlement program i n Newfoundland i s a case i n point. Through i t f i v e hundred outsorts and over 25,000 people were rese t t l e d i n more concentrated centres, where s o c i a l services could be provided at lower cost (Copes 1972). The f a i l u r e of economic development to materialize i n the province 286 has now prompted some return migration (Silvert 1S77). The r e s i l i e n c e of Sointula i n maintaining i t s e l f over seven decades while many other communities floundered deserves emphasis. F a c i l i t a t i n g the opening of choice for the future reguires two key elements : 1) mechanisms to allow public p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n the decision-making process. 2) access to relevent information concerning the development of the area. This implies a freedom of access, as well as, an active mechanism of dissemination. The potential for c o n f l i c t cf the issue of aboriginal ri g h t s has been mentioned. Aboriginal r i g h t s involves a guestion of the fundamental relationship of the Indian people with the Federal and P r o v i n c i a l governments. ,The j u d i c i a l and l e g i s l a t i v e branches of the central government are responsible for making a decision on t h i s issue and enforcing i t . , Allowing l o c a l confrontation to force decisions, places too high a burden on l o c a l residents and may not res u l t i n the most equitable decision. The point at issue here i s not the uses of resources by l o c a l communities, but a basic c o n s t i t u t i o n a l p r i n c i p l e . In evaluating the l o c a l process of resource regulation, problems were most evident i n two areas. The f i r s t i s the need for interdepartmental coordination i n the management of the watersheds of the salmon r i v e r s and the coastal ecosystem. The c o n f l i c t i n g ends of fores t r y , mining and fishing need to be more c l e a r l y a r t i c u l a t e d and the f u l l costs and benefits that are involved be known. The second i s the need for the formulation of 287 social-environmental policy whose aims are c l e a r l y defined and which makes greater use of the s c i e n t i f i c theory that i s available. 288 APPENDIX 3 S t a t i s t i c a l Analysis of a C l a s s i f i c a t i o n of B.C. Fishing Communities A* 1 Introduction A c l a s s i f i c a t i o n of the coastal communities of B.C., Was proposed by S i n c l a i r (1971). The data base consisted of f i v e v ariables: 1) t o t a l population 2) % of labour force in f i s h i n g 3) t o t a l income for the community U) % of t o t a l inccme as non-service income 5) % of population which are Indian. Twenty-one Communities were surveyed and i m p r e s s i o n i s t i c a l l y c l a s s i f i e d into four categories: A) Hamlets Bamfield Coal Harbour Winter Harbour Port Clements Quatsino Kyuguot B) V i l l a g e s Sointula Bella Bella Bella Coola 289 Port Simpson Skidegate C) Settlements a l e r t Bay Port McNeill Tcfino Ucluelet Masset Queen Charlotte City Sandspit D) Towns Port Alberni Port Hardy Prince Hupert Sunnyside Port Edward The purpose of t h i s appendix i s to examine the s t a t i s t i c a l basis for t h i s c l a s s i f i c a t i o n . A.2 Discriminant Function Analysis: I n i t i a l Q-factor analysis (Cooley and Lohnes 197 2) on standardized and unweighted data showed no clear pattern of c l a s s i f i c a t i o n . In order to augment the data two variables were added: 6) road distance from Vancouver 7) road distance from nearest regional centre 290 (pop.^20,000) , A discriminant function analysis was then conducted. The purpose of discriminant analysis i s to find a weighted l i n e a r combination of discriminating variables that forces categories to be as s t a t i s t i c a l l y d i s t i n c t as possible., The f i r s t step was to run the analysis on a l l twenty-one communities and seven variables. The four discriminant functions were formed ( table A.I) and the Mahalonobis distance (D 2), a measure of difference between categories were calculated (Table A.1a). The D2 s t a t i s t i c was not s i g n i f i c a n t suggesting a lack of discrimination between categories. From the four discriminant fu