UBC Theses and Dissertations

UBC Theses Logo

UBC Theses and Dissertations

Agricultural development and fertility patterns in the dry zone of Sri Lanka, 1946-1971 1985

You don't seem to have a PDF reader installed, try download the pdf

Item Metadata

Download

Media
UBC_1985_A8 G35.pdf [ 5.35MB ]
Metadata
JSON: 1.0076854.json
JSON-LD: 1.0076854+ld.json
RDF/XML (Pretty): 1.0076854.xml
RDF/JSON: 1.0076854+rdf.json
Turtle: 1.0076854+rdf-turtle.txt
N-Triples: 1.0076854+rdf-ntriples.txt
Citation
1.0076854.ris

Full Text

AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT AND FERTILITY PATTERNS IN THE DRY ZONE OF SRI LANKA: 1946-1971 by JAMES HILL GANSNER A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF ARTS in THE FACULTY OF GRADUATE STUDIES Department of I n t e r d i s c i p l i n a r y S t u d i e s We accept t h i s t h e s i s as conforming to the r e q u i r e d s t a n d a r d THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA October 1985 © James H i l l Gansner, 1985 In presenting this thesis in partial fulfilment of the requirements for an advanced degree at the University of British Columbia, I agree that the Library shall make it freely available for reference and study. I further agree that permission for extensive copying of this thesis for scholarly purposes may be granted by the head of my department or by his or her representatives. It is understood that copying or publication of this thesis for financial gain shall not be allowed without my written permission. Department of I n t e r d i s c i p l i n a r y Studies The University of British Columbia 1956 Main Mall Vancouver, Canada V6T 1Y3 DE-6(3/81) A b s t r a c t T h e m a i n o b j e c t i v e o f t h i s s t u d y i s t o d e t e r m i n e w h e t h e r 1 9 7 1 f e r t i l i t y d i f f e r e n t i a l s i n S r i L a n k a ' s d r y z o n e c a n b e e x p l a i n e d i n t e r m s o f a g r i c u l t u r a l d e v e l o p m e n t . I t i s h y p o t h e s i z e d t h a t a g r i c u l t u r a l d e v e l o p m e n t m i g h t b e a s s o c i a t e d w i t h l o w f e r t i l i t y d u e t o t h e e f f e c t s o f a g r i c u l t u r a l d e v e l o p m e n t o n i n t e r m e d i a t e v a r i a b l e s f o u n d t o b e c l o s e l y r e l a t e d t o f e r t i l i t y i n o t h e r s t u d i e s . Y o t o p o u l o s w o r k o n t h e r e l a t i o n b e t w e e n e c o n o m i c d e v e l o p m e n t a n d f e r t i l i t y p r o v i d e s a u s e f u l t h e o r e t i c a l f r a m e . T h e m e t h o d o l o g y e m p l o y e d i s p a t h a n a l y s i s . F i n d i n g s i n d i c a t e t h a t a g r i c u l t u r a l d e v e l o p m e n t i s n o t r e l a t e d t o f e r t i l i t y d i f f e r e n t i a l s i n S r i L a n k a ' s d r y z o n e . D i f f e r e n t i a l s i n f e r t i l i t y a r e e x p l a i n e d p r i m a r i l y i n t e r m s o f c u l t u r a l f a c t o r s , f e m a l e e d u c a t i o n , f e m a l e a g e a t m a r r i a g e , a n d f a m i l y p l a n n i n g . i i i T a b l e o f C o n t e n t s P a g e T a b l e o f C o n t e n t s i i i L i s t o f T a b l e s v L i s t o f F i g u r e s v i C h a p t e r I 1 . I n t r o d u c t i o n 1 2 . T h e o r e t i c a l J u s t i f i c a t i o n a n d B a s e 2 3 . S r i L a n k a ' s D r y Z o n e s A N a t u r a l L a b o r a t o r y f o r t h e S t u d y o f t h e R e l a t i o n B e t w e e n A g r i c u l t u r a l D e v e l o p m e n t a n d F e r t i l i t y 7 C h a p t e r I I 1 . I n t r o d u c t i o n 2 1 2 . A g e a t M a r r i a g e a n d F e r t i l i t y 2 3 3 . M o r t a l i t y a n d F e r t i l i t y 2 3 4 . E d u c a t i o n a n d F e r t i l i t y 2 7 5 . I n c o m e a n d F e r t i l i t y 3 6 6 . S i z e o f A g r i c u l t u r a l H o l d i n g s a n d F e r t i l i t y 4 1 7 . C u l t u r a l F a c t o r s a n d F e r t i l i t y 4 6 8 . I r r i g a t i o n , P a d d y Y i e l d , F a r m M a n a g e m e n t P r a c t i c e s a n d I n c o m e 5 5 i v 9 . C o n t r a c e p t i o n a n d F e r t i l i t y 6 2 C h a p t e r I I I 1 . I n t r o d u c t i o n 6 7 2 . P a t h A n a l y s i s : A B r i e f D e s c r i p t i o n a n d S o m e C a v e a t s 6 7 3 . A B r i e f N o t e o n P r o c e d u r e 6 9 4 . E c o l o g i c a l C o r r e l a t i o n : T h e P r o b l e m a n d S o m e P r e c a u t i o n s 7 1 5 . S t a t i s t i c a l M o d e l E m p l o y e d 7 5 C h a p t e r I V 1 . I n t r o d u c t i o n 8 4 2 . S t a t i s t i c a l R e s u l t s a n d C o n c l u s i o n s 8 4 3 . G o v e r n m e n t P o l i c y a n d F e r t i l i t y 9 7 4 . A F i n a l N o t e 1 0 6 B i b l i o g r a p h y 1 0 8 A p p e n d i x 1 : M a p S h o w i n g A r e a D e s i g n a t e d a s D r y Z o n e 1 2 0 V L i s t o f T a b l e s Page T a b l e 1 M e a n A g e a t M a r r i a g e 1 9 4 6 , 1 9 5 3 , a n d 1 9 7 1 1 4 T a b l e 2 L i t e r a c y R a t e s o f t h e P o p u l a t i o n A g e d 1 0 Y e a r a n d O v e r [ N u m b e r o f L i t e r a t e s p e r 1 0 0 0 P e r s o n s ] 1 5 T a b l e 3 A v e r a g e Y i e l d s p e r A c r e i n R e l a t i o n t o S i z e o f H o l d i n g i n B u s h e l s ( M a h a 1 9 7 1 / 7 2 ) 4 6 T a b l e 4 M e a n T o t a l N u m b e r o f C h i l d r e n D e s i r e d b y C u r r e n t l y M a r r i e d W o m e n A g e d 2 5 - 3 4 , b y B a c k g r o u n d V a r i a b l e s 4 9 T a b l e 5 A s s o c i a t i o n o f V a r i o u s E x p l a n a t o r y V a r i a b l e s w i t h R e l i g i o n [ W o m e n O n l y ] 5 2 T a b l e 6 M e a n A g e a t M a r r i a g e o f W o m e n w h o M a r r i e d B e f o r e A g e 2 5 , b y R e l i g i o n a n d E t h n i c i t y 5 3 T a b l e 7 C a s h O u t l a y p e r A c r e f o r P a d d y C u l t i v a t i o n A c c o r d i n g t o S o u r c e o f W a t e r S u p p l y 5 8 T a b l e 8 D i s t r i b u t i o n o f V a r i e t i e s A c c o r d i n g t o W a t e r S u p p l y D u r i n g M a h a 1 9 7 1 / 7 2 6 0 T a b l e 9 D i s t r i b u t i o n o f V a r i e t i e s A c c o r d i n g t o W a t e r S u p p l y D u r i n g Y a l a 1 9 7 2 6 0 T a b l e 1 0 A g e S p e c i f i c M a r i t a l F e r t i l i t y R a t e s f o r S r i L a n k a s 1 9 6 3 - 1 9 7 2 6 4 T a b l e 1 1 N e w A c c e p t o r s o f F a m i l y P l a n n i n g a t G o v e r n m e n t , M u n i c i p a l i t y , a n d F a m i l y P l a n n i n g C l i n i c s i n S r i L a n k a : 1 9 7 1 6 6 v i Table 12 C o r r e l a t i o n s Between A l t e r n a t i v e I n d i c a t o r s and General F e r t i l i t y Rate 83 Table 13 General Decomposition Table f o r Path Model I 87 Table 14 Percentage D i s t r i b u t i o n of Population by Education - 1953, 1963, and 1969/70 102 Table 15 L i t e r a c y Rates by Sex and Age - 1971 103 L i s t o f F i g u r e s D i a g r a m I Y o t o p o u l o s ' C o n c e p t u a l F r a m e C h a r t 1 A c t u a l a n d T r e n d i n A r e a S o w n t o P a d d y ( A l l C e y l o n ) 1 9 5 2 - 1 9 7 2 C h a r t 2 A c t u a l a n d T r e n d i n P a d d y Y i e l d ( T o n s / A c r e ) ( A l l C e y l o n ) 1 9 5 2 - 1 9 7 2 C h a r t 3 C r u d e B i r t h R a t e s f o r C e y l o n a n d T h r e e R e g i o n s i n t h e D r y Z o n e : 1 9 4 6 - 1 9 7 1 C h a r t 4 V a r i a t i o n i n B i r t h a n d D e a t h R a t e s i n C e y l o n 1 8 7 1 - 1 9 7 1 C h a r t 5 C r u d e D e a t h R a t e s i n C e y l o n a n d S e l e c t e d R e g i o n s o f t h e D r y Z o n e : 1 9 4 6 - 1 9 7 1 D i a g r a m I I M o d i f i e d C o n c e p t u a l F r a m e D i a g r a m I I I P a t h D i a g r a m D e p i c t i n g t h e R e l a t i v e S t r e n g t h o f R e l a t i o n s h i p s A m o n g D i f f e r e n t V a r i a b l e s a n d F e r t i l i t y A c k n o w l e d g e m e n t s I w o u l d l i k e t o t h a n k c o m m i t t e e m e m b e r s D r . G r a h a m J o h n s o n a n d D r . J o h n W o o d , a n d m y a d v i s o r D r . B a r r i e M o r r i s o n , f o r t h e i r f a i t h f u l s u p p o r t o v e r w h a t p r o v e d t o b e a r e l a t i v e l y l o n g p e r i o d o f t i m e . I a m i n d e b t e d t o D r . Y u n s h i c k C h a n g a n d D r . N a n c y ( W a x i e r ) M o r r i s o n , w h o j o i n e d t h e c o m m i t t e e a t a s o m e w h a t l a t e r d a t e a n d p r o v i d e d m e w i t h m u c h v a l u a b l e c r i t i c i s m a n d i n p u t . I a m a l s o i n d e b t e d t o D r . R i c h a r d B a r i c e l l o a n d D r . T i s s a F e r n a n d o f o r t h e i r i n p u t d u r i n g t h e e a r l y s t a g e s o f w r i t i n g . S p e c i a l t h a n k s t o S i d d h a r t h a n R a j a r a t n a m a n d R o n n i e S i z t o f o r t h e i r h e l p w i t h v a r i o u s a s p e c t s o f c o m p u t e r p r o g r a m m i n g . 1 Chapter I 1. I n t r o d u c t i o n The primary o b j e c t i v e of t h i s study i s to determine whether 1971 f e r t i l i t y d i f f e r e n t i a l s i n the dry zone of S r i Lanka can be e x p l a i n e d i n terms of a g r i c u l t u r a l development. 1 I t i s h ypothesized that a g r i c u l t u r a l development might be a s s o c i a t e d with low f e r t i l i t y due to i t s e f f e c t s on v a r i o u s i n t e r m e d i a t e v a r i a b l e s shown to be c l o s e l y a s s o c i a t e d with f e r t i l i t y i n other s t u d i e s . In the event that the l i n k between a g r i c u l t u r a l development and f e r t i l i t y i s found to be weak, p r o v i s i o n i s made so that an a l t e r n a t i v e e x p l a n a t i o n of f e r t i l i t y d i f f e r e n t i a l s can be p r o v i d e d . The focus of the a n a l y s i s i s 1971 because data f o r e a r l i e r time p e r i o d s are not complete. 2 In order to provide h i s t o r i c a l p e r s p e c t i v e , trends i n a g r i c u l t u r a l development, r e l e v a n t i n t e r m e d i a t e v a r i a b l e s , and f e r t i l i t y d u r i n g the p e r i o d from 1946 to 1971 w i l l be d i s c u s s e d . By t a k i n g a v a i l a b l e h i s t o r i c a l evidence i n t o c o n s i d e r a t i o n , i t becomes p o s s i b l e to broaden the a n a l y s i s and come to some c o n c l u s i o n s with respect 1 Formerly Ceylon 2 For i n s t a n c e , data on age of marriage were not r e p o r t e d i n some census years while income data a v a i l a b l e f o r 1971 were not comparable w i t h data a v a i l a b l e f o r e a r l i e r p e r i o d s . 2 to the i m p l i c a t i o n s of a g r i c u l t u r a l development f o r f e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e i n the dry zone d u r i n g the p e r i o d from 1946 to 1971. As changes l e v e l s of m o r t a l i t y , education, and f e r t i l i t y are to a l a r g e extent a t t r i b u t a b l e to v a r i o u s GOSL programmes, the i m p l i c a t i o n s of government p o l i c y f o r f e r t i l i t y are a l s o c o n s i d e r e d . F i n d i n g s from t h i s study i n d i c a t e that a g r i c u l t u r a l development does not pro v i d e much e x p l a n a t i o n f o r 1971 f e r t i l i t y d i f f e r e n t i a l s . High female l i t e r a c y p r o v i d e s the best e x p l a n a t i o n f o r low f e r t i l i t y in 1971, p r i m a r i l y because i n c r e a s e d s c h o o l i n g r e s u l t s in d e f e r r a l of marriage. D i f f e r e n t i a l s i n female l i t e r a c y can be l a r g e l y e x p l a i n e d i n terms of c u l t u r a l f a c t o r s , and are not s t r o n g l y r e l a t e d with e i t h e r a g r i c u l t u r a l development or income. I t i s concluded that s i g n i f i c a n t d e c l i n e s i n f e r t i l i t y would probably have occurred i n the dry zone, d u r i n g the p e r i o d from 1946 to 1971, r e g a r d l e s s of achievements i n a g r i c u l t u r a l development. In s i t u a t i o n s where economic c o n d i t i o n s are poor, education i s low and f e r t i l i t y i s high, i n c r e a s e d female education may be the key to f e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e . Government p o l i c i e s which c o n t r i b u t e to higher l e v e l s of women's education and which promote f a m i l y p l a n n i n g c o n t r i b u t e s i g n i f i c a n t l y to f e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e . 2. T h e o r e t i c a l J u s t i f i c a t i o n and Base The nature of the r e l a t i o n s h i p between economic development and f e r t i l i t y has been a matter of t h e o r e t i c a l i n t e r e s t f o r some time. The view that economic development and 3 mod e r n i z a t i o n are connected, and c o n t a i n f o r c e s which l e a d to f e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e , was f i r s t advanced d u r i n g the l a t t e r p a r t of the n i n e t e e n t h century by w r i t e r s such as Dumont and Leroy- B e a u l i e u . 3 T h e o r i e s advanced by these w r i t e r s were systematized by Frank N o t e s t e i n d u r i n g , the 1940's and 1950's, and are i n t e g r a l to the theory of demographic t r a n s i t i o n . " The o r i g i n a l theory of demographic t r a n s i t i o n , as formulated by N o t e s t e i n , suggests that f e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e i s par t of a wider process of modernization which occurs i n three s t a g e s : h i g h m o r t a l i t y and high f e r t i l i t y (stage 1), low m o r t a l i t y and hig h f e r t i l i t y (stage 2), and low m o r t a l i t y and low f e r t i l i t y (stage 3 ) . The N o t e s t e i n theory p r o v i d e s an e x p l a n a t i o n of f e r t i l i t y trends i n Europe, America, and A u s t r a l i a , and the t r a n s i t i o n from stage 1 to stage 2, and from stage 2 to stage 3, i s understood in terms of " p r i n c i p l e s drawn from the European a n a l y s i s " . 5 F e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e i s c o n s i d e r e d to be a response to economic development which leads to i n c r e a s e d l e v e l s of i n d u s t r i a l i z a t i o n and u r b a n i z a t i o n : "changes i n economic s t r u c t u r e s , which are a s s o c i a t e d with 3 A n s l e y J . Coale, "The Demographic T r a n s i t i o n : A Summary, Some Lessons, and Some Obser v a t i o n s " , i n Lee-Jay Cho and Kobayashi Kazumasa, F e r t i l i t y T r a n s i t i o n i n the East Asian P o p u l a t i o n s , The U n i v e r s i t y Press of Hawaii, Honolulu, 1979, pp.10-11 • I b i d . , p.11 5 Frank W. N o t e s t e i n , "Economic Problems of P o p u l a t i o n Change", in Proceedings of the E i g h t h I n t e r n a t i o n a l Conference of A g r i c u l t u r a l Economists , Oxford U n i v e r s i t y Press, London, 1953 4 i n d u s t r i a l i z a t i o n , b r i n g about an improved standard of l i v i n g which, f i r s t l y a f f e c t s m o r t a l i t y and, secondly, leads to r u r a l - urban m i g r a t i o n , u r b a n i z a t i o n and the c r e a t i o n of an urban s o c i e t y which i n turn e s t a b l i s h e s i n c e n t i v e s f o r the i n t r o d u c t i o n of d i r e c t c o n t r o l s on f e r t i l i t y " . 6 In i t s c l a s s i c a l form, the theory of demographic t r a n s i t i o n i s not u s e f u l f o r the a n a l y s i s of f e r t i l i t y p a t t e r n s i n S r i Lanka, due to the' absence of s i g n i f i c a n t u r b a n i z a t i o n . 7 N o t e s t e i n recognized that i n d u s t r i a l - u r b a n t r a n s f o r m a t i o n i s n e i t h e r a guarantee of f e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e nor e s s e n t i a l to i t . 8 Furthermore, the concept ' u r b a n i z a t i o n ' i s f a r too gen e r a l to have much explanatory v a l u e . What i s needed i s to i s o l a t e the i n d i v i d u a l mechanisms of f e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e , many of which are r e f l e c t e d w i t h i n the wider process of u r b a n i z a t i o n : It i s evident that u r b a n i z a t i o n p r o v i d e s no m y s t i c a l means f o r the r e d u c t i o n of f e r t i l i t y . The small f a m i l y i d e a l and strong m o t i v a t i o n f o r the r e p r o d u c t i o n of b i r t h s have a r i s e n i n a v a r i e t y of c o n d i t i o n s . At present, we cannot e i t h e r l i s t a l l of the f a c t o r s i n v o l v e d or a t t a c h p r e c i s e weights to the f a c t o r s we can l i s t . 6 Robert Woods, T h e o r e t i c a l P o p u l a t i o n Geography, Longman Group L t d . , New York, 1982, p.161 7 In 1946 only 15.4% of S r i Lanka's p o p u l a t i o n was c l a s s i f i e d as urban; i n 1971 the percentage of urban p o p u l a t i o n had r i s e n only s l i g h t l y to 22.4%. In the dry zone, only 11.9% of the p o p u l a t i o n was urban i n 1971. A l l i s l a n d f i g u r e s are h i g h e r , p r i m a r i l y due to the l a r g e urban p o p u l a t i o n (55%) i n the d i s t r i c t of Colombo. See N o t e s t e i n , Op. C i t . , pp.17-18. 5 There i s , however, good reason to b e l i e v e that among the important f a c t o r s a r e : the growing importance of the i n d i v i d u a l r a t h e r than the f a m i l y , and p a r t i c u l a r l y the extended f a m i l y group; the development of a r a t i o n a l and s e c u l a r p o i n t of view; the growing awareness of the world and modern techniques through popular education; improved h e a l t h ; and the appearance of a l t e r n a t i v e s to e a r l y marriage and c h i l d b e a r i n g as a means of l i v e l i h o o d and p r e s t i g e f o r women. Yotopoulos p r o v i d e s a comprehensive overview of f a c t o r s known to i n f l u e n c e f e r t i l i t y , e i t h e r d i r e c t l y or i n d i r e c t l y , and h i s work i s a l o g i c a l e xtension of N o t e s t e i n ' s . 9 v a r i o u s q u e s t i o n s concerning the a p p l i c a t i o n of t r a n s i t i o n theory i n e m p i r i c a l a n a l y s i s . 1 0 He suggests that f o r purposes of r e s e a r c h , " i t would be convenient i f one approached demographic t r a n s i t i o n by s t a r t i n g with economic change. S o c i a l and c u l t u r a l v a r i a b l e s c o u l d than be brought i n as supplemental and intermediate v a r i a b l e s to round out the c a u s a l l i n k s and to improve the e x p l a n a t i o n " . 1 1 On the b a s i s of t h i s view, Yotopoulos has d e v i s e d a conceptual framework which "provides a broad idea of the c a u s a l i t y which runs from development to 9 Pan A. Yotopoulos, "The P o p u l a t i o n Problem and the Development S o l u t i o n " , i n Food Research I n s t i t u t e S t u d i e s , V o l . XVI, No. 1, 1977 E q u a l l y important, Yotopoulos has grappled with 1 0 I b i d . 1 1 I b i d p.9 p o p u l a t i o n a n d c o n v e r s e l y f r o m p o p u l a t i o n t o d e v e l o p m e n t " . 1 2 . T h i s c o n c e p t u a l f r a m e w o r k i s t h e f o u n d a t i o n u p o n w h i c h t h e f o l l o w i n g s t u d y i s b a s e d , a n d i s r e p r o d u c e d i n D i a g r a m 1 . 1 3 D i a g r a m 1 Y o t o p o u l o s ' C o n c e p t u a l F r a m e E C O N O M I C ; D E V E L O P M E N T " Intetmediate variables" Health and nutrition | ^Demographic ̂ j parameters Income levels i 0 H 8 3 O .1 - 1 - 2 c C <1 o n o m ic  ib le s i Costs and benefits of children Other socio- cconom ic indicators 0. "5 | So ci oe c va ri : ! Investment, savings, distribution, education, and other variables Migration POPULATION' CiROWTII Death rate B i r t h - Rate ,.1 |Vi|nil.lti«"l i i i t re.1st rate F o r p u r p o s e s o f t h i s s t u d y , o n l y f o r w a r d l i n k a g e s i n t h e f r a m e w o r k a r e c o n s i d e r e d , a n d o n l y t h e f i r s t f o u r ' s e c t i o n s ' 1 2 I b i d . , p . 2 3 1 3 I b i d . , p . 2 4 7 are r e l e v a n t . 1" Yotopoulos' framework, and some of the hypotheses which underly i t , pro v i d e a s t a r t i n g p o i n t on the b a s i s of which i t i s p o s s i b l e to develop a model that f a c i l i t a t e s an a n a l y s i s of the r e l a t i o n between a g r i c u l t u r a l development and f e r t i l i t y i n the dry zone of S r i Lanka. I t i s c l e a r from Yotopoulos' diagram that economic development, of which a g r i c u l t u r a l development i s a component, might t h e o r e t i c a l l y i n f l u e n c e f e r t i l i t y due to a number of mechanisms. T h i s process would be r e f l e c t e d not only be changes i n economic i n d i c a t o r s and f e r t i l i t y r a t e s , but a l s o by changes i n intermediate v a r i a b l e s . I t w i l l be i l l u s t r a t e d i n the f o l l o w i n g s e c t i o n that the S r i Lanka dry zone p r o v i d e s an i d e a l l a b o r a t o r y f o r the study of l i n k s between a g r i c u l t u r a l development and f e r t i l i t y , and that c o n d i t i o n s and trends i n the dry zone d u r i n g the p e r i o d from 1946 to 1971 n a t u r a l l y i n v i t e the a p p l i c a t i o n of a model based on Yotopoulos' work. 3. S r i Lanka's Dry Zone: A N a t u r a l Laboratory f o r the Study of the r e l a t i o n between A g r i c u l t u r a l Development and F e r t i l i t y F o l l o w i n g the GOSL Department of Census and S t a t i s t i c s r e p o r t f o r 1971, twelve of S r i Lanka's twenty-two d i s t r i c t s are c a t e g o r i z e d as dry zone: J a f f n a , Mannar, Vavuniya, B a t t i c a l o a , Amparai, Trincomalee, Kurunegala, i a Questions r e l a t i n g to the f a c t that the model employed has only forward l i n k a g e s are d i s c u s s e d i n the methodological s e c t i o n (Chapter I I ) . The dependent v a r i a b l e i n the model i s gene r a l f e r t i l i t y r a t e , and not r a t e of p o p u l a t i o n i n c r e a s e , as in Yotopoulos' diagram. 8 Puttalam, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, and M o n e r a g a l a . 1 5 These d i s t r i c t s l i e roughly w i t h i n the area designated by Farmer as 'lowland' dry zone, which i s d i f f e r e n t i a t e d from the wet zone on the b a s i s of v e g e t a t i o n a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . 1 6 Some w r i t e r s have d e f i n e d the dry zone i n terms of the 75-inch i s o h y e t . However, as the area d e f i n e d by Farmer as lowland dry zone i s l a r g e r than the area c i r c u m s c r i b e d by the 75-inch annual i s o h y e t , t h i s d e f i n i t i o n i s most u s e f u l s i n c e i t permits the i n c l u s i o n of a l a r g e r number of d i s t r i c t s i n t o the sample. The dry zone cove r s the northern t w o - t h i r d s of S r i Lanka, and extends down the east c o a s t and around the southern perimeter of the i s l a n d . The g e o g r a p h i c a l l o c a t i o n s of d i s t r i c t s d e s i g n a t e d as dry zone are i l l u s t r a t e d i n Map 1-A. 1 7 The dry zone, d u r i n g the p e r i o d from 1946 to 1971, p r o v i d e s an i d e a l l a b o r a t o r y f o r the study of r e l a t i o n s between a g r i c u l t u r a l development and f e r t i l i t y . T h i s was a p e r i o d of r a p i d a g r i c u l t u r a l development, and a p e r i o d d u r i n g which f e r t i l i t y t rends s h i f t e d from i n c r e a s e to d e c l i n e . I t i s a l s o a 1 5 See N e v i l l e E d i r i s i n g h e and Thomas T. Poleman, "Rice Economy of S r i Lanka: Consumption C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s and Production Trends", i n Marga , Vol.4, No.3, 1977, p.57. Robert Chamber, Op. C i t . , a l s o c l a s s i f i e s these twelve d i s t r i c t s as dry zone. Robert Chambers, "Water Management and Paddy P r o d u c t i o n i n the Dry Zone of S r i Lanka", O c c a s s i o n a l P u b l i c a t i o n No.8, A g r a r i a n Research and T r a i n i n g I n s t i t u t e , Colombo, Dec. 1978 1 6 B.H. Farmer, Pioneer Peasant C o l o n i z a t i o n i n Ceylon, Oxford U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1957, pp.1-6 1 7 See Appendix I 9 p e r i o d marked by changes i n i n t e r m e d i a t e v a r i a b l e s ; v a r i a b l e s which Yotopoulos suggests may be mechanisms through which a g r i c u l t u r a l development i n f l u e n c e s f e r t i l i t y . Before proceeding, i t w i l l be worthwhile to document some of these t r e n d s . Progress i n dry zone a g r i c u l t u r e during the p e r i o d from 1946 to 1971 occurred almost e x c l u s i v e l y w i t h i n the paddy s e c t o r , and was due p r i m a r i l y to i n c r e a s e s i n both the area under c u l t i v a t i o n and per acre y i e l d s . During the 1946-47 maha season, 340,402 ac r e s of paddy were c u l t i v a t e d i n the dry z o n e . 1 8 The corresponding f i g u r e f o r the 1970-71 maha season i s 770,651 a c r e s , i n d i c a t i n g t h a t the area under paddy more than doubled d u r i n g the p e r i o d under s t u d y . 1 9 Y i e l d s more than t r i p l e d d u r i n g the same p e r i o d . The average y i e l d per acre during the 1946-47 maha season was 13.6 bushels, while 41.6 bushels per acre were obtained during the 1970-71 maha season. A l l S r i Lanka tre n d s i n area c u l t i v a t e d and y i e l d per acre are i l l u s t r a t e d i n Chart 1 and Chart 2 . 2 0 1 8 Department of Census and S t a t i s t i c s , " S t a t i s t i c a l A b s t r a c t of Ceylon, 1949", 'Major I r r i g a t i o n Schemes and other Paddy Lands', Table 104, p.137. 1 9 Department of Census and S t a t i s t i c s , " S t a t i s t i c a l A b s t r a c t of S r i Lanka, 1973", Table 63, 'Paddy: Extent C u l t i v a t e d and Y i e l d ' , p.109 2 0 N e v i l l e Ediri.singhe and Thomas T. Poleman, "Rice Economy i n S r i Lanka: Consumption C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s and Production Trends", i n Marga, V o l . 4 , No.3, 1977. See Chart 14, p.41 and Chart 17, p. 45. 10 Chart 1: A c t u a l and Trend in Area Sown to Paddy ( A l l S r i Lanka) 1952-1972 11 Chart 2: Actu a l and Trend i n Paddy Y i e l d (Tons/Acre) ( A l l S r i Lanka) 1952-1972 While annual b i r t h rates tend to f l u c t u a t e , the o v e r a l l trend i n the dry zone was a s l i g h t increase from 1946 to 1960 (37 to 44). CBR's d e c l i n e d f a i r l y s t e a d i l y d u r i n g the p e r i o d from 1960 to 1971 (44 to 34). Chart 3 i l l u s t r a t e s trends in crude b i r t h rates d u r i n g the p e r i o d from 1946 to 1971 i n S r i 1 2 L a n k a a n d t h r e e r e g i o n s o f t h e d r y z o n e . 2 1 C h a r t 3 : C r u d e B i r t h R a t e s f o r S r i L a n k a a n d T h r e e R e g i o n s i n t h e D r y z o n e : 1 9 4 6 - 1 9 7 1 — i — i — i — i — i — o © fill Ceylon -•• Northern Province -» N. Centr/pfttwanee -« Eastern/province (_) 5 1968.0 1970.0 2 1 F i g u r e s f o r t h e p e r i o d f r o m 1 9 4 6 t o 1 9 6 0 w e r e o b t a i n e d f r o m d a t a p r o v i d e d i n A b a y a r a t n e a n d J a y a w a r d e n e , O p . C i t . S e e T a b l e 2 2 , ' C r u d e B i r t h R a t e s b y P r o v i n c e a n d D i s t r i c t , 1 9 0 0 t o 1 9 6 0 ' . A l l S r i L a n k a f i g u r e s f o r t h e p e r i o d f r o m 1 9 6 1 t o 1 9 7 1 w e r e o b t a i n e d f r o m S t a t i s t i c a l A b s t r a c t f o r S r i L a n k a , 1 9 7 3 , T a b l e 3 2 , ' B i r t h s i n S r i L a n k a ' , p . 6 1 . F i g u r e s f o r t h e N o r t h e r n P r o v i n c e ( J a f f n a , M a n n a r , V a v u n i y a ) , t h e N o r t h C e n t r a l P r o v i n c e ( A n u r a d h a p u r a , P o l o n n a r u w a ) a n d t h e E a s t e r n 1 P r o v i n c e ( B a t t i c a l o a , T r i c o m a l i e , A m p a r a i ) f o r t h e p e r i o d f r o m 1 9 6 5 t o 1 9 7 1 w e r e a l s o o b t a i n e d f r o m S t a t i s t i c a l A b s t r a c t f o r S r i L a n k a , 1 9 7 3 . S e e T a b l e 3 3 , ' B i r t h s i n S r i L a n k a - b y d i s t r i c t s ' , a n d T a b l e 1 0 , ' E s t i m a t e d M i d - Y e a r P o p u l a t i o n - B y D i s t r i c t ' . F i g u r e s f o r s p e c i f i c r e g i o n s o f t h e d r y z o n e w e r e u n a v a i l a b l e f o r t h e 1 9 6 1 t o 1 9 6 4 p e r i o d , a n d t h e s e f i g u r e s w e r e e s t i m a t e d . 13 The dry zone, d u r i n g the p e r i o d from 1946 to 1971, shows i n t e r e s t i n g trends i n some in t e r m e d i a t e v a r i a b l e s d e p i c t e d i n Yotopoulos' t h e o r e t i c a l frame. These are average age of females at marriage, female l i t e r a c y , and m o r t a l i t y . 2 2 The f i r s t of these i s d e a l t with by Yotopoulos under the heading ' c u l t u r a l f a c t o r s ' . C u l t u r a l f a c t o r s are "a complex of i d e o l o g i c a l f a c t o r s . . . which has been formed around the i n s t i t u t i o n of the f a m i l y " . 2 3 F o l l o w i n g Davis and Blake, Yotopoulos c l a s s i f i e s these f a c t o r s i n three g r o u p s : 2 4 1) f a c t o r s a f f e c t i n g exposure to i n t e r c o u r s e , such as age of entry i n t o marriage, minimum i n t e r v a l between unions when a marriage was terminated by d i v o r c e or death ( o f t e n p r e s c r i b e d by law), or v o l u n t a r y abstinance ( o c c a s i o n a l l y determined by s o c i a l taboos on sexual i n t e r c o u r s e ) ; 2) f a c t o r s a f f e c t i n g exposure to c o n c e p t i o n , such as the a v a i l a b i l i t y and d i s s e m i n a t i o n of c o n t r a c e p t i v e technology and s t e r i l i z a t i o n ( o f t e n s a n c t i o n e d or pr e c l u d e d by law or s o c i a l systems); and 3) f a c t o r s a f f e c t i n g g e s t a t i o n and s u c c e s s f u l p a r t u r i t i o n , such as a b o r t i o n laws or h e a l t h s e r v i c e s provided to pregnant women. Many of these f a c t o r s w i l l be d i s c u s s e d with s p e c i f i c r e f e r e n c e to f e r t i l i t y trends i n the dry zone l a t t e r on. For now, i t i s s u f f i c i e n t to p o i n t out that the average age of marriage 2 2 Yotopoulos c l a s s i f i e s m o r t a l i t y as a 'demographic parameter', even though i t c l e a r l y f u n c t i o n s as an intermediate var i a b l e . 2 3 Pan Yotopoulos, Op. C i t . , p.28 2 " I b i d . , pp.27-28 1 4 s t e a d i l y i n c r e a s e d i n the dry zone dur i n g the p e r i o d under study. As i s c l e a r from the f o l l o w i n g t a b l e , the average age of marriage has r i s e n more r a p i d l y f o r females than m a l e s : 2 5 Table 1: Mean Age at Marriage 1946, 1953, 1963, and 1971 Average age at marriage (years) Census Year Males Females Di f ference 1 946 27.0 20.7 6.3 1953 27.2 20.9 6.3 1 963 27.9 22. 1 5.8 1 971 28.0 23.5 4.5 Yotopoulos d e a l s with education under the heading 'socio-economic', and contends that "as a by-product of develpment, l i t e r a c y r a t e s and e d u c a t i o n a l l e v e l s are l i k e l y be i n c r e a s e f o r both males and f e m a l e s " . 2 6 I t i s important to note that "education c o n s i s t e n t l y appears as one of the c r u c i a l v a r i a b l e s a s s o c i a t e d with f e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e s " . 2 7 L i t e r a c y r a t e s i n c r e a s e d d r a m a t i c a l l y both i n the dry zone and S r i Lanka as a whole during the p e r i o d 2 5 Department of Census and S t a t i s t i c s , "Census of P o p u l a t i o n , 1971, S r i Lanka", Table 7:1, 'Mean Age at Marriage 1946, 1953, 1963, and 1971', p.99 2 6 Yotopoulos, Op. C i t . , p.33 2 7 I b i d . , p.32 15 under study, as i l l u s t r a t e d i n the f o l l o w i n g t a b l e : 2 8 Table 2 : L i t e r a c y Rates of the P o p u l a t i o n aged 10 Years and over [Number of L i t e r a t e s per 1000 Persons] ALL CEYLON DRY ZONE Year Male Female D i f f e r e n c e Male Female D i f f e r e n c e 1 946 765 468 297 726 436 290 1953 807 555 252 789 545 244 1 963 858 675 183 773 624 1 49 1 971 856 709 1 47 833 689 1 44 I t i s c l e a r from the above t a b l e t h a t while s u b s t a n t i a l i n c r e a s e s i n both male and female l i t e r a c y have been achieved, i t i s the i n c r e a s e i n female l i t e r a c y which has been most dramatic. In the dry zone, the female l i t e r a c y r a t e i n c r e a s e d from 436 i n 1946 to 689 i n 1971. During the same p e r i o d , the gap between male l i t e r a c y and female l i t e r a c y decreased by over 50%. The f i g u r e s i n d i c a t e that l i t e r a c y i s lower i n the dry zone than in S r i Lanka as a whole, although an examination of 2 8 N a t i o n a l f i g u r e s were obtained from Census of P o p u l a t i o n , 1971, S r i Lanka, Table 8.2, ' L i t e r a c y Rates of the P o p u l a t i o n Aged 10 years or o l d e r (Number of L i t e r a t e s per 1000 P e r s o n s ) . L i t e r a c y r a t e s f o r the dry zone were c a l c u l a t e d from census data. I t should be noted that the 1946, 1953 and 1963 dry zone f i g u r e s represent l i t e r a c y f o r the p o p u l a t i o n aged 5 years and o l d e r . I t was not p o s s i b l e to c a l c u l a t e the l i t e r a c y of the p o p u l a t i o n aged 10 and o l d e r i n the dry zone f o r these years from p u b l i s h e d census m a t e r i a l , due to l a c k of i n f o r m a t i o n on age s t r u c t u r e and l i t e r a c y . 16 l i t e r a c y l e v e l s f o r i n d i v i d u a l d i s t r i c t s r e v e a l s that in some cases, both male and female l i t e r a c y i s higher than the n a t i o n a l f i g u r e i n some dry zone d i s t r i c t s ; notably J a f f n a (863,792), Kurunegala (880,740) and Puttalam (880,791). 2 9 The r e l a t i o n between m o r t a l i t y and f e r t i l i t y i s g e n e r a l l y c o n s i d e r e d to be p o s i t i v e , although as Yotopoulos p o i n t s out, there i s o f t e n "a lag i n the response of f e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e s to m o r t a l i t y d e c l i n e s " . 3 0 Chart 4 i n d i c a t e s that t h i s i s t r u e f o r S r i L a n k a . 3 1 2 9 See Census of P o p u l a t i o n , 1971, S r i Lanka, Table 8.5, ' L i t e r a c y Rates of the P o p u l a t i o n Aged 10 years and over by D i s t r i c t s 1963 and 1971', p.116. 3 0 Yotopoulos, Op. C i t . , p.42 3 1 Department of Census and S t a t i s t i c s , "Census of P o p u l a t i o n , 1971, S r i Lanka", Chart 2.3, ' V a r i a t i o n s i n the B i r t h and Death Rates, 1871 to 1971 , p.23 1 7 C h a r t 4 : V a r i a t i o n s i n B i r t h a n d D e a t h R a t e s i n S r i L a n k a : 1 8 7 1 - 1 9 7 1 RfcTE PER lOOO PERSONS *r> , , 24 16 8 .0 1871 1301 l891 1901 1911 1921 I «* 11 1905 1953 19&3 1081 1091 1901 1911 1921 1931 194; 193) 1963 1971 •̂ ^̂ B̂ BM BIRTH RATE DEATH DATE S r i L a n k a ' s c r u d e d e a t h r a t e f e l l f r o m 2 0 . 3 i n 1 9 4 6 t o 1 2 . 6 i n 1 9 4 9 . T h e i n f a n t m o r t a l i t y r a t e , w h i c h w a s 1 4 1 p e r t h o u s a n d i n 1 9 4 6 , f e l l t o 8 7 p e r 1 0 0 0 i n 1 9 4 9 . 3 2 B o t h t h e c r u d e d e a t h r a t e a n d t h e i n f a n t m o r t a l i t y r a t e w e r e h a l v e d d u r i n g t h e p e r i o d 3 2 S . A . M e e g a m a , " M a l a r i a E r a d i c a t i o n a n d i t s E f f e c t o n M o r t a l i t y L e v e l s " , i n P o p u l a t i o n S t u d i e s , N o . 2 1 , N o v . 1 9 6 7 , p . 2 0 7 3 3 I n t e r n a t i o n a l S t a t i s t i c a l I n s t i t u t e , " T h e S r i L a n k a F e r t i l i t y S u r v e y , 1 9 7 5 , A s u m m a r y o f F i n d i n g s " , V o o r b u r g ( N e t h e r l a n d s ) , 1 9 7 8 , p . 1 18 from 1946 to i 9 6 0 . 3 3 These achievements were l a r g e l y due to the i n t r o d u c t i o n of s u c c e s s f u l m a l a r i a c o n t r o l measures i n the l a t e 1940's and the expansion of h e a l t h s e r v i c e s . 3 " In some dry zone d i s t r i c t s , crude death r a t e s were as h i g h as 35 or 40 per thousand j u s t p r i o r t o the i n t r o d u c t i o n of m a l a r i a c o n t r o l measures i n 1946. By 1950, crude death r a t e s had f a l l e n to between 9 and 17 per thousand i n these d i s t r i c t s . 3 5 3 " See, f o r i n s t a n c e , S.A. Meegama, Op. C i t . ; Peter Newman, "Ma l a r i a E r a d i c a t i o n and i t s E f f e c t on M o r t a l i t y L e v e l s : A Comment", i n P o p u l a t i o n S t u d i e s , No.23, 1979, P a r t I I ; R.H. Gray, "The D e c l i n e of M o r t a l i t y i n Ceylon", i n P o p u l a t i o n S t u d i e s , Vol.XXVII I, No.2, 1974. 3 5 B.H. Farmer, Op. C i t . , pp.20-22 1 9 C h a r t 5 i l l u s t r a t e s t r e n d s i n c r u d e d e a t h r a t e s f o r S r i L a n k a a n d t h r e e r e g i o n s o f t h e d r y z o n e d u r i n g t h e p e r i o d f r o m 1 9 4 6 t o 1 9 7 1 , 3 6 C h a r t 5 : C r u d e D e a t h R a t e s i n S r i L a n k a a n d S e l e c t e d R e g i o n s o f t h e D r y Z o n e : 1 9 4 6 - 1 9 7 1 e— —o y — X 1946.0 i 1 1 1 r o Rll Ceylon *• Northern Province « N. Central Province * Eastern Province i i i r _l ! j j , , , 1948.0 1950.0 1952.0 I954J0 1956.0 1958.0 1960.0 1962.0 1964.0 1966.0 1968.0 1970.0 Ypar T h e r e a r e a l s o s o m e p r a c t i c a l r e a s o n s f o r s e l e c t i n g 3 6 D a t a f o r t h e p e r i o d f r o m 1 9 4 6 t o 1 9 6 0 w e r e o b t a i n e d f r o m A b a y a r a t n e a n d J a y a w a r d e n e , O p . C i t . S e e T a b l e 2 4 , ' C r u d e D e a t h R a t e s b y D i s t r i c t s 1 9 0 0 - 1 9 6 0 ' , p p . 6 9 - 7 3 . A l l S r i L a n k a f i g u r e s f o r t h e p e r i o d f r o m 1 9 6 1 t o 1 9 7 1 w e r e o b t a i n e d f r o m S t a t i s t i c a l A b s t r a c t o f S r i L a n k a , 1 9 7 3 . F i g u r e s f o r t h e t h r e e d r y z o n e r e g i o n s f o r t h e p e r i o d f r o m 1 9 6 5 t o 1 9 7 1 w e r e c a l c u l a t e d f r o m T a b l e 3 5 , ' D e a t h s i n S r i L a n k a - B y D i s t r i c t ' , a n d T a b l e 1 0 , ' E s t i m a t e d M i d - Y e a r P o p u l a t i o n - B y D i s t r i c t ' i n S t a t i s t i c a l A b s t r a c t o f S r i L a n k a , 1 9 7 5 . 20 S r i Lanka's dry zone as the area of study. F i r s t , r e l a t i v e l y good s t a t i s t i c a l i n f o r m a t i o n i s a v a i l a b l e f o r the p e r i o d from 1946 to 1971. Second, a number of s t u d i e s have been conducted in S r i Lanka and the dry zone which focus on s u b j e c t s that are of d i r e c t relevance here, and a c o n s i d e r a b l e amount of q u a l i t a t i v e i n f o r m a t i o n can t h e r e f o r e be obtained. 21 Chapter II 1. I n t r o d u c t i o n Diagram II i s a trun c a t e d v e r s i o n of Yotopoulos' t h e o r e t i c a l frame and prov i d e s adequate scope f o r an i n q u i r y i n t o the r e l a t i o n between a g r i c u l t u r a l development and f e r t i l i t y i n the dry zone of S r i Lanka: Diagram II M o d i f i e d Conceptual Frame AGRICULTURAL INTERMEDIATE FERTILITY DEVELOPMENT VARIABLES Major I r r i g a t i o n Muslin Population^ Farm Management Practices Size of Agricultural Holdings ^ F e r t i l i t y ^7 22 R e l a t i o n s h i p s d e p i c t e d i n Diagram II r e f l e c t a number of hypotheses, many of which have been b r i e f l y summarized by Y o t o p o u l o s . 3 7 Some of the hypotheses which underly the diagram have been formulated on the b a s i s of f i n d i n g s i n case s t u d i e s which d e a l with q u e s t i o n s concerning a g r i c u l t u r a l development or f e r t i l i t y i n S r i Lanka. For i n s t a n c e , most of the hypotheses which i n v o l v e a g r i c u l t u r e - s p e c i f i c v a r i a b l e s have been formulated on the b a s i s of s t u d i e s conducted by the A g r a r i a n Research and T r a i n i n g I n s t i t u t e which exp l o r e the ' a g r a r i a n s i t u a t i o n ' i n the dry z o n e . 3 8 I t i s the purpose of t h i s chapter to present i n d i v i d u a l hypotheses which underly Diagram II and provide a b a s i s f o r the s t a t i s t i c a l model presented i n the next chapter. A c c o r d i n g to Diagram I I , f e r t i l i t y i n the dry zone i s d i r e c t l y i n f l u e n c e d by age of marriage, m o r t a l i t y , l i t e r a c y , c u l t u r a l f a c t o r s , income, and s i z e of a g r i c u l t u r a l h o l d i n g s . A l l of these v a r i a b l e s , with the e x c e p t i o n of c u l t u r a l f a c t o r s , are d i r e c t l y or i n d i r e c t l y i n f l u e n c e d by a g r i c u l t u r a l development. 3 9 H y p o t h e t i c a l r e l a t i o n s d e p i c t e d i n diagram II 3 7 Yotopoulos, Op. C i t . 3 8 See "The A g r a r i a n S i t u a t i o n R e l a t i n g to Paddy C u l t i v a t i o n i n F i v e S e l e c t e d D i s t r i c t s of S r i Lanka", A g r a r i a n Research and T r a i n i n g I n s t i t u t e , P t s . I l l , I V , and V, Colombo, 1975. 3 9 Note that at t h i s p o i n t , the d i s c u s s i o n i s i n terms of v a r i a b l e s and not i n d i c a t o r s . The s u b j e c t of s t a t i s t i c a l i n d i c a t o r s , and why some i n d i c a t o r s were s e l e c t e d over o t h e r s , i s d e a l t with i n chapter I I I . 23 are d e a l t with i n d i v i d u a l l y under a number of headings. Supporting evidence from c r o s s - n a t i o n a l and case s t u d i e s i s pr o v i d e d . 2. Age at Marriage and F e r t i l i t y R i s i n g age at marriage can i n f l u e n c e f e r t i l i t y s i n c e i t reduces exposure to sexual i n t e r c o u r s e and reduces the number of a woman's c h i l d b e a r i n g y e a r s . A number of e m p i r i c a l s t u d i e s i n d i c a t e that "the age of marriage has the c l o s e s t a s s o c i a t i o n with completed f a m i l y s i z e i n h i g h - f e r t i l i t y c o u n t r i e s " . " 0 Yotopoulos estimates that i f a marriage i s postponed three years from age 15 to age 18 due to school attendance at l e a s t one conception w i l l be a v e r t e d . ' 1 I t i s i n t e r e s t i n g t h at the mean age at marriage f o r females i n S r i Lanka rose by almost three years d u r i n g the p e r i o d from 1950 to 1971, and there i s good reason to b e l i e v e that r i s i n g age at marriage might be the primary cause of f e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e i n S r i Lanka d u r i n g the p e r i o d from 1960 to 1970. 4 2 3. M o r t a l i t y and F e r t i l i t y The n o t i o n that m o r t a l i t y i s l i n k e d with f e r t i l i t y i s 4 0 Yotopoulos, Op. C i t . , p.28 4 1 I b i d . , p.28 4 2 I n t e r n a t i o n a l S t a t i s t i c a l I n s t i t u t e , Op. C i t . , p.1; W. Parker Maudlin, "Patterns of F e r t i l i t y D e c l i n e i n Developing Countries,1950-1975", i n F e r t i l i t y D e c l i n e i n Less Developed C o u n t r i e s , Nick E b e r s t a d t (ed. ) , Op. C i t . , p.89 24 c e n t r a l to the theory of demographic t r a n s i t i o n , upon which Yotopoulos' work i s l o o s e l y b a s e d . 0 3 I n s o f a r as f e r t i l i t y i s concerned, i t i s evident that Yotopoulos c o n s i d e r s i n f a n t and c h i l d m o r t a l i t y to be c r u c i a l . " " I t i s g e n e r a l l y accepted that high l e v e l s of i n f a n t and c h i l d m o r t a l i t y are a s s o c i a t e d with high l e v e l s of f e r t i l i t y , although there i s some disagreement as to the reasons f o r t h i s . " 5 The c l a s s i c a l view i s that high i n f a n t and c h i l d m o r t a l i t y can lead to high f e r t i l i t y due to a supposed need of parents to insure the s u r v i v a l of some minimum number of c h i l d r e n d e s i r e d . More r e c e n t l y , a n a l y s t s have e x p l a i n e d the phenomenom by means of the c h i l d - s u r v i v a l and c h i l d - replacement hypotheses:" 6 "The former r e l a t e s to parent's p e r c e p t i o n s of m o r t a l i t y c o n d i t i o n s i n t h e i r s o c i a l s e t t i n g ; the b e l i e f t h a t c h i l d r e n w i l l s u r v i v e to adult-hood i s assumed to be p r e r e q u i s i t e f o r acceptance of f e r t i l i t y r e g u l a t i o n . . . t h e l a t t e r r e l a t e s to parent's responses to m o r t a l i t y i n c i d e n c e i n t h e i r own f a m i l y ; when a c h i l d d i e s , i t i s " 3 T h i s theory i s b r i e f l y reviewed i n chapter I. "" Yotopoulos, Op. C i t . , pp.41-42 4 5 For a d i s c u s s i o n of the ideas r e l e v a n t to t h i s s u b j e c t , see Samual Preston, The E f f e c t s of I n f a n t and C h i l d M o r t a l i t y on F e r t i l i t y , Academic Press, Inc., New York, 1978, pp.1-5, who a l s o p r o v i d e s an h i s t o r i c a l b i b l i o g r a p h y . * 6 Susan CM.Scrimshaw, "In f a n t M o r t a l i t y and Behavior in the R e g u l a t i o n of Family S i z e " , i n F e r t i l i t y D e c l i n e i n Less developed C o u n t r i e s , Op. C i t . , p.296 25 hypothesized, a couple w i l l r e p l a c e i t as q u i c k l y as p o s s i b l e . " I t has been suggested that the c h i l d - s u r v i v a l response i s the product of sub-conscious and u n v e r b a l i z e d n o t i o n s of m o r t a l i t y r i s k s . 4 7 I t i s e q u a l l y l i k e l y , however, that the phenomenom r e f l e c t s c o n s c i o u s decision-making on the par t of p a r e n t s . 4 8 The c h i l d - s u r v i v a l and c h i l d - r e p l a c e m e n t hypotheses e x p l a i n the observed a s s o c i a t i o n between m o r t a l i t y and f e r t i l i t y i n terms of b e h a v i o r a l mechanisms. Recent work suggests that b i o l o g i c a l mechanisms might be e q u a l l y i f not more i m p o r t a n t . 4 9 Proponents of the b i o l o g i c a l approach p o i n t out that post-partum l a c t a t i o n a l amenorrhea i s a s s o c i a t e d with longer b i r t h i n t e r v a l s : 5 0 4 7 T a y l o r draws t h i s c o n c l u s i o n because only 8% of the respondents i n a study he conducted i n d i c a t e d t h a t they took m o r t a l i t y r i s k i n t o c o n s i d e r a t i o n when making f a m i l y s i z e d e c i s i o n s . See C a r l E. T a y l o r , Jeanne S. Newman, and Narinder U. K e l l y , "The C h i l d S u r v i v a l Hypothesis", i n P o p u l a t i o n S t u d i e s , Vol.30, No.2, J u l y 1976, p.266. 4 8 Heer and Smith suggest that parents i n T h i r d World c o u n t r i e s w i l l have c h i l d r e n u n t i l they can be 95% c e r t a i n that at l e a s t one son w i l l s u r v i v e u n t i l the f a t h e r reaches the age of 65. See David M. Heer and Dean 0. Smith, " M o r t a l i t y L e v e l s , D e s i r e d Family S i z e , and P o p u l a t i o n Increase", i n Demography, Vol.5, No.1, 1968, p.107 4 9 A.K.M. Alauddin Chowdhury e t . a l . , "Experience i n P a k i s t a n and Bangladesh", i n Samuel H. Preston (ed.), The E f f e c t s of Infant and C h i l d M o r t a l i t y on F e r t i l i t y , Academic Press, Inc., New York, 1978, p.129 5 0 I b i d . , p.116 26 A b i r t h i n t e r v a l i s simply the time between s u c c e s s i v e b i r t h s . A f t e r a pregnancy t e r m i n a t i o n a woman t y p i c a l l y experiences a p e r i o d of temporary s t e r i l i t y , c h a r a c t e r i z e d by post-partum amenorrhea. With the onset of post-partum menses and o v u l a t i o n , the woman again becomes at r i s k to pregnancy...The l e n g t h of an average b i r t h i n t e r v a l i s important because i t i s a d i r e c t measure of f e r t i l i t y ; long i n t e r v a l s are a s s o c i a t e d with low f e r t i l i t y and v i c e v e r s a . Infant death r e s u l t s i n the i n t e r r u p t i o n of l a c t a t i o n and the onset of menstrual c y c l e s . T h i s means t h a t , i n the absence of c o n t r a c e p t i v e measures, b i r t h i n t e r v a l s w i l l be s i g n i f i c a n t l y s h o r t e n e d . 5 1 The c o r o l l a r y to t h i s i s t h a t , as i n f a n t death r a t e s d e c l i n e , b i r t h i n t e r v a l s become longe r . There i s some evidence t h a t crude b i r t h r a t e s may have d e c l i n e d i n Mysore State d u r i n g the p e r i o d from 1921 to 1941. 5 2 C a l d w e l l suggests that i f such a d e c l i n e d i d occur, i t was due " s o l e l y to an extension of the average l e n g t h of the i n t e r v a l between b i r t h s a r i s i n g from d e c l i n i n g i n f a n t and c h i l d m o r t a l i t y and hence to a r e d u c t i o n of the number of p e r i o d s of b r e a s t f e e d i n g cut short 5 1 A.K.M. Alauddin Chowdhury e t . a l . rep o r t that b i r t h i n t e r v a l s were shortened, on average, by 13.1 months i n Bangladesh d u r i n g the p e r i o d of t h e i r study. I b i d . , pp.126-127. C a n t r e l l e , F e r r y , and Mondot f i n d s i m i l a r trends i n v a r i o u s A f r i c a n c o u n t r i e s . P. C a n t r e l l e , B. F e r r y , and J . Mondot, " R e l a t i o n s h i p between F e r t i l i t y and M o r t a l i t y i n T r o p i c a l A f r i c a " , i n I b i d . , p.116. Both s t u d i e s report that the mean len g t h of post-partum amenorrhea i s about 60 days i n the case of women who do not b r e a s t f e e d . 5 2 See K i n g s l e y Davis, The P o p u l a t i o n of In d i a and P a k i s t a n , P r i n c e t o n U n i v e r s i t y Press, P r i n c e t o n , 1951 27 by the death of a c h i l d " . 5 3 The r e l a t i v e explanatory value of b e h a v i o r a l and b i o l o g i c a l t h e o r i e s no doubt v a r i e s from one case to another. U n f o r t u n a t e l y , i t i s o f t e n impossible to d i f f e r e n t i a t e the b i o l o g i c a l and b e h a v i o r a l e f f e c t s of i n f a n t m o r t a l i t y on f e r t i l i t y e m p i r i c a l l y . 5 ' 1 No attempt i s made to assess the r e l a t i v e p r e d i c t i v e value of b e h a v i o r a l and b i o l o g i c a l t h e o r i e s i n t h i s study, due to lack of q u a l i t a t i v e i n f o r m a t i o n . I t i s not e s s e n t i a l to do so, s i n c e i t i s g e n e r a l l y accepted that the e f f e c t of high i n f a n t m o r t a l i t y on f e r t i l i t y w i l l be p o s i t i v e , r e g a r d l e s s of whether b e h a v i o r a l or b i o l o g i c a l mechanisms are most o p e r a t i v e . 5 5 4. Education and F e r t i l i t y Education has c o n s i s t e n t l y been one of the best 5 3 John C. C a l d w e l l , P.H. Reddy, and Pat C a l d w e l l , "The Causes of Demographic Change in Rural South I n d i a " , i n P o p u l a t i o n and Development Review, Vol.8., No.4, D e c , 1982 5 * T h i s i s due to problems in m o d e l l i n g , as w e l l as to l a c k of data. See Chowdhury e t . a l . , Op. C i t . , p.114. For a d e t a i l e d d i s c u s s i o n of problems in m o d e l l i n g these e f f e c t s , see T. Paul S c h u l t z , " I n t e r r e l a t i o n s h i p s Between M o r t a l i t y and F e r t i l i t y " , i n P o p u l a t i o n and Development: The Search f o r S e l e c t i v e I n t e r v e n t i o n s , Ronald G~. Ridker (ed.), The Johns Hopkins U n i v e r s i t y Press, Balitmore, 1976, pp.255-263. 5 5 T. Paul S c h u l t z , Op. C i t . , p.288. I t i s of i n t e r e s t that f e r t i l i t y i n c r e a s e d suddenly i n d i s t r i c t s which experienced r a p i d m o r t a l i t y d e c l i n e f o l l o w i n g the i n t r o d u c t i o n of m a l a r i a c o n t r o l . T h i s suggests that the c h i l d - s u r v i v a l response was i n o p e r a t i o n p r i o r to m a l a r i a c o n t r o l , and that there was a l a g i n the adjustment of the response to a c o n d i t i o n of low m o r t a l i t y . See R.H. Gray, Op. C i t . , p.227. 28 p r e d i c t o r s of low f e r t i l i t y . 5 6 As people become more educated and have wider access to s a l a r i e d employment, they are exposed to 'modern' ideas and v a l u e s . 5 7 Education g e n e r a l l y i n c r e a s e s a s p i r a t i o n s f o r upward m o b i l i t y and m a t e r i a l wealth, and t h i s tends t o reduce the d e s i r a b i l i t y of having l a r g e numbers of c h i l d r e n . 5 8 I t has been shown that formal s c h o o l i n g has a stron g e f f e c t on t r a d i t i o n a l a t t i t u d e s toward f a m i l y s i z e and fa m i l y p l a n n i n g ; as l e v e l s of formal s c h o o l i n g i n c r e a s e , there i s a higher p r o b a b i l i t y that couples w i l l d e s i r e s m a l l f a m i l i e s and w i l l be favourably disposed to p r a c t i c e c o n t r a c e p t i o n . 5 9 Female education can a f f e c t f e r t i l i t y by v i r t u e of any of s e v e r a l mechanisms, e i t h e r s i n g l y or i n combination, and may be p a r t i c u l a r l y c r u c i a l to f e r t i l i t y . 6 0 I t has been suggested that high female education has the e f f e c t of lowering f e r t i l i t y , due to supposed l i n k s between female educ a t i o n , l e v e l s of c h i l d c are, and i n f a n t and c h i l d m o r t a l i t y . Women who 5 6 Pan A. Yotopoulos, Op. C i t . , p.32 5 7 I b i d . , p.164 5 8 I b i d . , pp.160-161; O.E.R. Abhayaratne and C.H.S. Jayewardene, F e r t i l i t y Trends i n Ceylon, The Colombo Ap o t h e c a r i e s ' Co., L t d . , Colombo, 1967, pp.319-335 5 9 Donald B. Ho l s i n g e r and John D. Kasarda, "Education and Human F e r t i l i t y : S o c i o l o g i c a l P e r s p e c t i v e s " , i n Ronald G. Ridker (ed.), Op. C i t . , p.166; Repetto, Op. C i t . , p.93 6 0 Yotopoulos, Op. C i t . , p.33 29 are more h i g h l y educated are g e n e r a l l y more cognizant of f a c t o r s a f f e c t i n g the h e a l t h of t h e i r o f f s p r i n g , and may have wider knowledge of, and access to, medical s e r v i c e s : " i n the l e s s developed c o u n t r i e s the schooled c i t i z e n i s more l i k e l y to be immunized, to l i v e under improved s a n i t a r y . c o n d i t i o n s , and to buy a n t i b i o t i c s f o r the c o n t r o l of d i s e a s e ( h e n c e ) . . . i n f a n t and c h i l d m o r t a l i t y r a t e s are much lower among f a m i l i e s where formal education i s present than where the parents and c h i l d r e n are u n s c h o o l e d " . 6 1 B r e a s t f e e d i n g g r e a t l y b e n e f i t s i n f a n t h e a l t h , s i n c e i t not only p r o v i d e s a source of adequate n u t r i t i o n , but a l s o because i t p r o v i d e s n a t u r a l immunization a g a i n s t d i s e a s e . 6 2 T h i s i s p a r t i c u l a r l y t r u e with respect to i n t e s t i n a l d i s e a s e s , which are a major cause of i n f a n t and c h i l d m o r t a l i t y i n developing c o u n t r i e s . 6 3 Evidence from c r o s s - n a t i o n a l s t u d i e s suggests that the r e l a t i o n s h i p between female education and b r e a s t f e e d i n g i s n e g a t i v e , although b r e a s t f e e d i n g may not be as v i t a l l y important i n the case of higher s o c i o - 6 1 H o l s i n g e r and Kasarda, Op. C i t . , p.163 6 2 For comment on the advantages of b r e a s t f e e d i n g f o r n u t r i t i o n , see R.N. Gross, " I n t e r r e l a t i o n Between H e a l t h and P o p u l a t i o n : O b s e r v a t i o n s from Derive d from F i e l d E xperiences", i n S o c i a l S c ience and Medicine, Vol.14C, No.2, June 1980, p.104, and Ruth Rice P u f f e r and C a r l o s V. Serrano, "Patterns of M o r t a l i t y i n Childhood", Pan American H e a l t h O r g a n i z a t i o n , World H e a l t h O r g a n i z a t i o n , Washington D.C, 1973, pp.267-271. For a d i s c u s s i o n of the immunological mechanisms a s s o c i a t e d with b r e a s t f e e d i n g see Gross, pp.104-105, and P u f f e r and Serrano, p.265. 6 3 See P u f f e r and Serrano, Op. C i t . , p.264. 30 economic g r o u p s . 6 " T h i s general p a t t e r n i s not n e c e s s a r i l y c h a r a c t e r i s t i c of S r i Lanka however, where there i s evidence of stron g and p o s i t i v e a s s o c i a t i o n s between female l i t e r a c y and the i n c i d e n c e of b r e a s t f e e d i n g , and female l i t e r a c y and the d u r a t i o n of b r e a s t f e e d i n g : 6 5 ...more educated women are more l i k e l y to ever b r e a s t f e e d (and)... those who do b r e a s t f e e d are more l i k e l y to continue b r e a s t f e e d i n g to recommended ages i f they are more educated. More educated women i n S r i Lanka thus appear to b e t t e r understand the value of b r e a s t f e e d i n g f o r f i v e or more months of the i n f a n t ' s l i f e . E d u cation a l s o a f f e c t s f e r t i l i t y by r a i s i n g the average age of females at m a r r i a g e . 6 6 Men and women t y p i c a l l y d e f e r marriage while i n high school and u n i v e r s i t y , and i t has been shown that t h i s reduces the number of c h i l d r e n ever b o r n . 6 7 I t has been determined, with respect t o recent f e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e s i n K e r a l a , that " i n c r e a s e d age at marriage due to i n c r e a s e d school attendance was...a s i g n i f i c a n t f a c t o r " . 6 8 Evidence that r i s i n g age at marriage i s the primary 6 f t I b i d . , p.264 6 5 John Akin e t . a l . , "The Determinants of B r e a s t f e e d i n g i n S r i Lanka", i n Demography, Vol.18, No.3, 1981, p.159 6 6 See Pan A. Yotopoulos, Op. C i t . , p.32, and H o l s i n g e r and Kasarda, Op. C i t . , p.159. 6 7 H o l s i n g e r and Kasarda, Op. C i t . , p.159 6 8 See Yotopoulos, Op. C i t . , p.33. 31 cause of f e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e in S r i Lanka during the p e r i o d from 1960 to 1970 has alre a d y been d i s c u s s e d . Higher age at marriage i s almost e n t i r e l y due to i n c r e a s e d school e n r o l m e n t . 6 9 S e v e r a l s t u d i e s have shown that there i s an i n v e r s e r e l a t i o n s h i p between female employment and f e r t i l i t y . 7 0 Increases i n the l e v e l of female education can l e a d to g r e a t e r p a r t i c i p a t i o n of women in the workforce. As Kasarda, who has analyzed the r e l a t i o n s h i p s between female education, female employment, and f e r t i l i t y u s i ng data from 49 c o u n t r i e s concludes: "The l e v e l of education i n each n a t i o n was found to have a l a r g e e f f e c t on the p r o p o r t i o n of females employed f o r wages and s a l a r i e s , which i n turn had a stro n g n e gative a s s o c i a t i o n with f e r t i l i t y " . 7 1 A c c o r d i n g to Kasarda, f e r t i l i t y i s i n f l u e n c e d both by the o p p o r t u n i t i e s of women to o b t a i n s a l a r i e d employment and the economic r o l e of women i n s o c i e t y . 7 2 However, there i s evidence that there i s no r e l a t i o n between female employment and f e r t i l i t y i n S r i Lanka: " I t w i l l be a disappointment to some readers to observe that women who 6 9 "Census of P o p u l a t i o n 1971, Summary Report", Department of Census and S t a t i s t i c s , 1978, p.154 7 0 For a summary of these, see John D. Kasarda, "Economic S t r u c t u r e and F e r t i l i t y : A Comparative A n a l y s i s , " i n Demography, Vol.8, No.3, Aug. 1971, pp.308-309 7 1 C i t e d from Hosinger and Kasarda, Op. C i t . , p.161. 7 2 Kasarda, Op. C i t . , p.314 32 work d u r i n g t h e i r f i r s t years of marriage do not seem to have lower f e r t i l i t y " . 7 3 While there i s evidence that some women who work before marriage e x h i b i t s l i g h t l y lower f e r t i l i t y than women who do not, t h i s t rend i s r e a l l y only c h a r a c t e r i s t i c of e s t a t e workers l i v i n g i n the wet z o n e . 7 4 The number of females employed f o r wages i n the dry zone i s q u i t e s m a l l , and the number of women employed in p o s i t i o n s which r e q u i r e higher education i s almost n e g l i g i b l e . 7 5 The r e l a t i o n between female employment and f e r t i l i t y w i l l not be subjected to s t a t i s t i c a l a n a l y s i s i n t h i s s t u d y . 7 6 Women who are educated or who have obtained s a l a r i e d employment tend to be more independent than t h e i r c o u n t e r p a r t s . One r e s u l t of t h i s i s that the balance of power w i t h i n marriage can s h i f t , so th a t women have more input i n t o m a r i t a l d e c i s i o n s which a f f e c t f e r t i l i t y . 7 7 F e r t i l i t y surveys i n d i c a t e that women 7 3 I n t e r n a t i o n a l S t a t i s t i c a l I n s t i t u t e , Op. C i t . , p.91 7 4 I b i d . , p.91 7 5 For i n s t a n c e , i n Anuradhapura D i s t r i c t only 1.1% of females employed are employed as p r o f e s s i o n a l , t e c h n i c a l and r e l a t e d workers. 7 6 The c o r r e l a t i o n between females employed and the f e r t i l i t y i n d i c a t o r used i n the study (GFR) i s negative as might be expected, but very weak (-.29). 7 7 E b e r s t a d t , Op. C i t . , pp.58-59 33 g e n e r a l l y d e s i r e smaller f a m i l i e s than men. 7 8 Education a l s o f a c i l i t a t e s the d i f f u s i o n of knowledge of c o n t r a c e p t i v e t e c h n i q u e s . 7 9 There i s some evidence that a breakdown i n t r a d i t i o n a l a t t i t u d e s toward f a m i l y s i z e and f a m i l y p l a n n i n g may have occu r r e d i n S r i Lanka duri n g the p e r i o d from 1950 to 1970, and that t h i s might be a s s o c i a t e d with i n c r e a s e s in the l e v e l of female education which o c c u r r e d d u r i n g the same p e r i o d . P r i o r to 1950, most v i l l a g e women probably regarded c h i l d b e a r i n g as t h e i r i n a l t e r a b l e f a t e . Even i f they might have p r e f e r r e d to l i m i t the s i z e of t h e i r f a m i l i e s by one means or other, they probably would not have done so because of t h e i r r e l i g i o u s b e l i e f s and t h e i r d e s i r e to a v o i d s o c i a l stigma. Ryan suggests that the a t t i t u d e s of most r u r a l women toward the use of c o n t r a c e p t i v e d e v i c e s , d u r i n g the 1940's and e a r l y 1950's, might be summarized as f o l l o w s : 8 0 I f a dead ' s o u l ' wishes to be born i n t o your f a m i l y , i t would be a t e r r i b l e s i n to prevent i t s b i r t h . We w i l l pay f o r such a c t s i n our next l i f e . C h i l d r e n that are to be born to you must be allowed to be born. That i s how l i f e goes on. We cannot and should not prevent t h i s . Ryan's i n t e r v i e w s were conducted i n S i n h a l e s e v i l l a g e s where Buddhism was the dominant r e l i g i o n . Whether such a t t i t u d e s 7 8 I b i d . , p.58 7 9 Repetto, Op. C i t . , p.85 8 0 Bryce Ryan, I n s t i t u t i o n a l F a c t o r s i n S i n h a l e s e F e r t i l i t y , Milbank Memorial Fund Q u a r t e r l y , Vol.30, p.371, 1952 34 might have been common among Hindus, who a l s o s u b s c r i b e to the d o c t r i n e of t r a n s m i g r a t i o n of s o u l s , i s not c l e a r from Ryan's study. Dr. G.P. Mala l a s e k e r a , P r e s i d e n t of the A l l Ceylon Buddhist Congress, o f f i c i a l l y s anctioned the use of c o n t r a c e p t i v e techniques by Buddhists i n 1968. He noted that while Buddhism t r a d i t i o n a l l y encouraged the b i r t h of c h i l d r e n , i t was i n the n a t i o n a l i n t e r e s t to c o n t r o l p o p u l a t i o n g r o w t h . 8 1 R e l i g i o u s b e l i e f s had l a r g e l y ceased to be an o b s t r u c t i o n to fa m i l y p l a n n i n g by 1970. 8 2 Ryan d i d f i n d some evidence that women might p r e f e r to l i m i t the s i z e of t h e i r f a m i l i e s i f they knew of a d i s c r e e t and moral way of doing so. As one married female respondent s t a t e d : 8 3 We c o n s i d e r i t a misfortune to have too many c h i l d r e n . Provided one i s not d e s t r o y i n g l i f e she i s q u i t e j u s t i f i e d i n pr e v e n t i n g pregnancy. Women would be t h a n k f u l i f they knew of such a device ( b i r t h c o n t r o l ) f o r although they dare not confess i t in p u b l i c , i n d i v i d u a l l y women would not l i k e to have more than three c h i l d r e n . 8 1 Mary Bishop, From L e f t to R i g h t : A P e r s p e c t i v e on the Role of the V o l u n t e e r s i n Family Planning i n the West and in South A s i a , Masters T h e s i s , U n i v e r s i t y of B.C., 1971, p.181 8 2 I b i d . , p.178. At l e a s t t h i s was probably true f o r Buddhists and Hindus. Abhayaratne and Jayewardene found that "a l a r g e p r o p o r t i o n of persons opposed to f a m i l y p l a n n i n g was opposed to i t because they thought i t contravened r e l i g i o u s p r i n c i p l e s " when they conducted t h e i r study i n 1965. See Abhayaratne and Jayewardene, Op. C i t . , p.282. 3 Ryan, Op. C i t . , p.371 35 However, r e g a r d l e s s of what women's a t t i t u d e s toward f a m i l y p l a n n i n g might have been, f e r t i l i t y d e c i s i o n s were l a r g e l y a matter of male p r e r o g a t i v e . M a r r i e d women were expected to be obedient and s u b s e r v i e n t to t h e i r husbands, both i n sexual as w e l l as other m a t t e r s . 8 " As Ryan suggests: "The husband's sexual a u t h o r i t y i s the most important s i n g l e element f o r an understanding of f e r t i l i t y " . 8 5 Men were disposed to have l a r g e f a m i l i e s f o r a number of c u l t u r a l r e a s o n s : 8 6 Men s i n c e r e l y want l a r g e f a m i l i e s , and e s p e c i a l l y many sons: c h i l d r e n are p r o s p e r i t y . Not once i n the extensive d i s c u s s i o n s with v i l l a g e men was there a mention of the burden of c h i l d care and the d i f f i c u l t i e s of r e a r i n g . The p e r s o n a l t r i a l s and burdens of parenthood are almost wholly the mother's. Father i s proud parent toward h i s neighbours, a c a r e s s e r of i n f a n t s i n the home, and c o n t r i b u t e r to h i s kin s t a t u s through w e l l - c a l c u l a t e d marriages. He i s served by h i s household, and the l a r g e r h i s small kingdom the g r e a t e r h i s d i g n i t y and g l o r y . Through c h i l d r e n , e s p e c i a l l y sons, he gains s t a t u s as a man, i s assured that h i s r e s p o n s i b i l i e s w i l l be i n h e r i t e d by others and that he himself w i l l have s e c u r i t y i n o l d age. There i s some evidence that l e v e l s of feminine s e l f - d e t e rmination had i n c r e a s e d by 1970, and that women had more 8 4 I b i d . , pp.375-377 5 I b i d . , p.372 6 I b i d . , p.373 36 i n f l u e n c e over t h e i r own f e r t i l i t y . 8 7 T h i s i s c o n s i s t e n t with the theory that women might have more input i n t o f a m i l y p l a n n i n g as the l e v e l of t h e i r education i n c r e a s e s . Abhayaratne and Jayewardene have shown that i n S r i Lanka, education i n c r e a s e s a s p i r a t i o n s f o r s o c i a l m o b i l i t y and leads to a d e s i r e f o r small f a m i l i e s : 8 8 The most potent f a c t o r c o n t r o l l i n g the use of c o n t r a c e p t i v e s appears to be the a t t i t u d e of the parents to the f u t u r e of t h e i r c h i l d r e n . . . T h o s e who had s p e c i f i c plans f o r t h e i r c h i l d r e n - what occupation they should do i n l a t e r l i f e - had the lowest f e r t i l i t y while those who had no such plans had the h i g h e s t . . . I n s h o r t , those who were f u t u r e o r i e n t e d , who planned for the f u t u r e of t h e i r c i l d r e n , were the people who had the lowest f e r t i l i t y and had used c o n t r a c e p t i v e s to achieve t h i s end. These people do not come mainly from the upper c l a s s e s nor do they come from the lower. They are u s u a l l y educated people with a l i m i t e d income, in the p u b l i c s e r v i c e doing c l e r i c a l j o b s . T h e i r wives are a l s o educated and employed g a i n f u l l y o u t s i d e the home. T h i s i s c o n s i s t e n t with t h e o r i e s which suggest that parents with higher l e v e l s of education might p r e f e r to have small numbers of c h i l d r e n of high q u a l i t y . 8 9 5. Income and F e r t i l i t y I t i s p o s s i b l e that income a f f e c t s f e r t i l i t y i n 8 7 Mary Bishop, Op. C i t . , p.181 Abhayaratne and Jayewardene, Op. C i t . , p.341 9 See H o l s i n g e r and Kasarda, Op. C i t . , pp.160-162 37 s e v e r a l ways, and a n a l y s t s i n v a r i a b l y take income i n t o c o n s i d e r a t i o n when studying f e r t i l i t y . 9 0 There i s however, much disagreement as t o what the mechanisms of the r e l a t i o n s h i p might be, how income should be measured, and whether the e f f e c t of higher income on f e r t i l i t y i s negative or p o s i t i v e . 9 1 Yotopoulos suggests that low income can i n f l a t e f e r t i l i t y i n three ways: 9 2 F i r s t , poverty, through poor n u t r i t i o n and h e a l t h , leads to higher m o r t a l i t y r a t e s . Parents tend to overcompensate f o r the expected l o s s of a c h i l d by higher f e r t i l i t y r a t e s . Second, poverty-'lowers the r e l a t i v e cost of c h i l d r e n , s i n c e the ambition of the poor i s s u r v i v a l . The c o s t of c h i l d r e n at higher l e v e l s of income i s measured i n terms of o p p o r t u n i t i e s foregone and e d u c a t i o n a l e x p e n d i t u r e s . T h i r d , the b e n e f i t s from c h i l d r e n may be higher a t lower l e v e l s of l i v i n g . A c h i l d i s a source of p l e a s u r e f o r every parent, but a poor farmer's c h i l d i s a l s o p a r t of the f a m i l y ' s working c a p i t a l and a p o t e n t i a l source of prof i t . Most w r i t e r s would accept that income can a f f e c t f e r t i l i t y i n d i r e c t l y by v i r t u e of a l i n k between income and n u t r i t i o n . Maternal n u t r i t i o n a f f e c t s f o e t a l wastage, and malnourished women experience higher l e v e l s of f o e t a l wastage than t h e i r 9 0 Yotopoulos, Op. C i t . , p.31 9 1 I b i d p.31 9 2 I b i d p.31 38 c o u n t e r p a r t s . 9 3 Well nourished mothers tend to have he a v i e r b a b i e s , and there i s s t a t i s t i c a l evidence to suggest that low b i r t h weight i s p o s i t i v e l y a s s o c i a t e d with i n f a n t d e a t h . 9 " Furthermore, m a l n u t r i t i o n i s c l e a r l y l i n k e d with r e s p i r a t o r y and i n t e s t i n a l d i s e a s e s i n weaned i n f a n t s and young c h i l d r e n , and i n f l u e n c e s the l e v e l of i n f a n t and c h i l d m o r t a l i t y i n many deve l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s . 9 5 Yotopoulos' l a s t two p o i n t s r e q u i r e e l a b o r a t i o n . Since these p o i n t s r e f l e c t the a p p l i c a t i o n of H i c k s i a n micro-theory i n the a n a l y s i s of f e r t i l i t y behavior, they may be c o n s i d e r e d t o g e t h e r . Becker i s g e n e r a l l y c r e d i t e d with being the f i r s t to r e c o g n i z e t h a t , f o r the purpose of a n a l y z i n g household f e r t i l i t y p a t t e r n s , c h i l d r e n might be viewed as both consumer 9 3 Rose E. F r i s c h , " P o p u l a t i o n , N u t r i t i o n , and F e c u n d i t y : S i g n i f i c a n c e f o r I n t e r p r e t a t i o n of Changes in F e r t i l i t y " , i n Nick Eberstadt (ed.), Op. C i t . , p.324 9 " For a d i s c u s s i o n of the r e l a t i o n s h i p between b i r t h w e i g h t and m o r t a l i t y , see Grosse, Op. C i t . , p.105, who p r o v i d e s c r o s s - n a t i o n a l i n f o r m a t i o n . For an i n depth t h e o r e t i c a l d i s c u s s i o n of t h i s s u b j e c t , see P u f f e r and Serrano, Op. C i t . , chapter 3. 9 5 Repetto, Op. C i t . , p.26; Akin e t . a l . , Op. C i t . , p.288. For a broader d i s c u s s i o n , see " N u t r i t i o n and I n f e c t i o n " , WHO T e c h n i c a l Report S e r i e s , 314, Geneva, 1964; J e l l i f f , D.B. " C h i l d N u t r i t i o n i n Developing C o u n t r i e s " , Agency f o r I n t e r n a t i o n a l Development, 1969, and M.C. Latham, " N u t r i t i o n and and I n f e c t i o n i n N a t i o n a l Development", i n P h i l i p H. Abelson, Food: P o l i t i c s ' Economics, N u t r i t i o n , and Research, American A s s o c i a t i o n f o r the Advancement of Science, Washington, D.C., 1975. 9 6 See Gary S. Becker, "An Economic A n a l y s i s of F e r t i l i t y , " i n Ansley Coale (ed.) Demographic and Economic Change i n Developed C o u n t r i e s , U n i v e r s i t i e s - N a t i o n a l Bureau Conference S e r i e s 11, P r i n c e t o n U n i v e r s i t y Press, P r i n c e t o n , 1960, pp.210-211. 39 and producer g o o d s . 9 6 A c c o r d i n g to Becker, an i n c r e a s e i n f a m i l y income should have a p o s i t i v e e f f e c t on both the amount i n v e s t e d in c h i l d r e n ( c h i l d q u a l i t y ) and the number of c h i l d r e n produced ( c h i l d q u a n t i t y ) . C r o s s - n a t i o n a l data i n d i c a t e that Becker's c o n c l u s i o n with r e s p e c t to the e f f e c t of income on the demand fo r c h i l d r e n might be c o r r e c t , but only i n the s h o r t - term: 9 7 The immediate e f f e c t of a r i s e i n income at the beginning of a s e c u l a r r i s e i n a t r a d i t i o n a l s u b s i s t e n c e - a g r i c u l t u r e s e t t i n g i s to i n c r e a s e f e r t i l i t y . T h i s i s the c l a s s i c case i n economic theory of the e f f e c t of income on f e r t i l i t y , t a s t e s i n the short run remaining unchanged while people f i n d they can a f f o r d t o r a i s e more c h i l d r e n . The main f a u l t i n Becker's theory, i n s o f a r as the p r e d i c t i o n of long-term f e r t i l i t y t r e n d s i s concerned, i s t h a t i t assumes the e x i s t e n c e of a s t a b l e u t i l i t y f u n c t i o n common to a l l households; changes i n household t a s t e s are assumed away. 9 8 C r o s s - n a t i o n a l s t u d i e s i n d i c a t e t h a t over the long-term, the e f f e c t of income on f e r t i l i t y i s n e g a t i v e . 9 9 One p o s s i b l e reason f o r t h i s i s that t a s t e g e n e r a l l y v a r i e s a c c o r d i n g t o 9 7 J u l i a n Simon, "Income, Wealth, and T h e i r D i s t r i b u t i o n as P o l i c y Tools i n F e r t i l i t y C o n t r o l , " i n Ronald R. Ridker (ed.), Op. C i t . , p.53 I b i d . , p.41; Yotopolous, Op. C i t . , p.53 9 9 J u l i a n Simon, Op. C i t . , p.56 40 income, as has been suggested by L e i b e n s t e i n : 1 0 0 . . . p o p u l a t i o n s are d i v i d e d i n t o s o c i a l s t a t u s groups that have d i f f e r e n t t a s t e s , who may to some degree have d i f f e r e n t d e s i r e s f o r c h i l d r e n (but not simply because of an economic d i f f e r e n c e ) , and who e s p e c i a l l y see the whole c o s t s t r u c t u r e of t h e i r expenditures, i n c l u d i n g expenditures fo r c h i l d r e n , from a viewpoint of v a s t l y d i f f e r e n t p r e f e r e n c e s t r u c t u r e s . Furthermore, c r o s s - n a t i o n a l s t u d i e s i n d i c a t e that there i s an i n v e r s e r e l a t i o n s h i p between c h i l d q u a l i t y and c h i l d q u a n t i t y . 1 0 1 While t h i s may be p a r t l y due to the f a c t that d i f f e r e n t s o c i a l s t a t u s groups e x h i b i t d i f f e r e n t t a s t e s , i t a l s o r e f l e c t s p u r e l y economic f a c t o r s : "an in c r e a s e i n q u a l i t y i s more expensive i f there are more c h i l d r e n because the i n c r e a s e has to apply to more u n i t s ; s i m i l a r l y , an in c r e a s e i n q u a n t i t y i s more expensive i f the c h i l d r e n are of higher q u a l i t y , because h i g h e r - q u a l i t y c h i l d r e n c o s t m o r e " . 1 0 2 Q u a n t i t a t i v e data show t h a t , i n S r i Lanka, high income i s n e g a t i v e l y a s s o c i a t e d with f a m i l y s i z e . 1 0 3 There i s 1 0 0 Harvey L e i b e n s t e i n , "The Economic Theory of F e r t i l i t y D e c l i n e " , Q u a r t e r l y J o u r n a l of Economics, Vol.89, 1975, p.3 1 0 1 Becker and Lewis, "On the I n t e r a c t i o n between Quantity and Q u a l i t y of C h i l d r e n " , J o u r n a l of P o l i t i c a l Economy, Vol.81, No.2, P t . I I , M a r c h / A p r i l 1973, p.s279 1 0 2 I b i d . , p.65; T h i s theory assumes that parent's w i l l i n v e s t i n a l l o f f - s p r i n g e q u a l l y . In many cases, t h i s assumption may be unreasonable, s i n c e i t i s known that parents i n developing c o u n t r i e s may spend more f o r the education of sons than f o r daughters. 1 0 3 Abhayaratne and Jayewardene, Op. C i t . , p.296 41 however, l i t t l e q u a l i t a t i v e i n f o r m a t i o n to suggest why t h i s should be the case. Recent i n f o r m a t i o n suggests that poverty i s i n c r e a s i n g l y becoming a p o s i t i v e f a c t o r i n f e r t i l i t y : 1 0 4 . . . i t i s a l s o c l e a r that the p r e s s u r e s of poverty, with i n c r e a s i n g food shortages and spreading m a l n u t r i t i o n , are themselves l e a d i n g more and more couples to search f o r a more e f f e c t i v e means of l i m i t i n g t h e i r f a m i l i e s than the t r a d i t i o n a l rhythm method. There i s a l s o evidence that unemployment and low income o f t e n r e s u l t i n deferment of marriage, which a l s o has the e f f e c t of reducing f e r t i l i t y . 1 0 5 6. S i z e of A g r i c u l t u r a l Holdings and F e r t i l i t y I t i s d i f f i c u l t to s p e c u l a t e on what the o v e r a l l e f f e c t of high income on f e r t i l i t y might be i n the dry zone. T h i s i s p a r t l y because of the l a r g e p r o p o r t i o n of the p o p u l a t i o n which i s engaged i n a g r i c u l t u r e . I t i s g e n e r a l l y accepted that the dynamics of f a m i l y p l a n n i n g are somewhat d i f f e r e n t i n farm households than i n non-farm households, s i n c e the c o s t of r a i s i n g c h i l d r e n i s g e n e r a l l y l e s s f o r farmers than fo r members of other o c c u p a t i o n a l groups. The a s s o c i a t i o n between s i z e of a g r i c u l t u r a l holdings.and f e r t i l i t y tends to be 1 0 4 See John Rowley, "Joy, Happiness, and a Woman's F r i e n d " , i n Vol.2, No.4, People, 1975, p.16. T h i s view i s a l s o advanced by Mary Bishop, Op. C i t . , p.186 1 0 5 Badrud Duza, "Determinants of M a r i t a l Postponement in S r i Lanka" i n N u p t i a l i t y and P o p u l a t i o n P o l i c y , P o p u l a t i o n C o u n c i l , New York, 1977 42 p o s i t i v e because labour requirements are g r e a t e r on l a r g e farms than on small farms, and c h i l d r e n are an i d e a l source of l a b o u r . An a d d i t i o n a l f a c t o r i s that farmers with small h o l d i n g s may l i m i t the s i z e of t h e i r f a m i l i e s to a v o i d land f r a g m e n t a t i o n . 1 0 6 I t i s hypothesized that the d i r e c t e f f e c t of farm s i z e on f e r t i l i t y w i l l be p o s i t i v e . I t i s hypothesized that farm s i z e i n f l u e n c e s f e r t i l i t y i n d i r e c t l y due to l i n k a g e s between farm s i z e , a g r i c u l t u r a l p r o d u c t i v i t y , and income. Evidence from v a r i o u s s t u d i e s i n d i c a t e s that the r e l a t i o n between farm s i z e and a g r i c u l t u r a l p r o d u c t i v i t y can be p o s i t i v e or n e g a t i v e , depending upon a number of f a c t o r s . I t i s g e n e r a l l y accepted that i n i n d u s t r i a l i z e d c o u n t r i e s l a r g e h o l d i n g s are more p r o d u c t i v e than small h o l d i n g s due to economies of s c a l e . 1 0 7 As C l i n e p o i n t s out, "the primary reason to expect p o s s i b l e s c a l e economies would be the argument that minimum areas are r e q u i r e d to u t i l i z e c e r t a i n farm machines (such as t r a c t o r s and s e l f - 1 0 6 F o r a m o r e e x t e n s i v e d i s c u s s i o n of the r e l a t i o n s h i p between s i z e of a g r i c u l t u r a l h o l d i n g s and f e r t i l i t y , see W. Whitney Hi c k s , "Economic Development and F e r t i l i t y Change i n Mexico, 1950-1970", i n Demography, Vol.11, No.3, August 1974, pp.407- 421 . 1 0 7 Doreen Warriner, ' R e l a t i o n Between Land Reform and Development', i n G e r a l d M. Meier (ed.), Leading Issues i n Economic Development, Oxford U n i v e r s i t y Press, New York, 1976, pp.607-612, p.609 43 p r o p e l l e d c o m b i n e s ) " . 1 0 8 However, " i n a l a b o r s u r p l u s context these machines are not l i k e l y to be p r o f i t a b l e at a p p r o p r i a t e c a p i t a l , exchange r a t e , and product p r i c e s , and a f o r t i o r i are not l i k e l y to be s o c i a l l y p r o f i t a b l e i f labor i s shadow- p r i c e d " . 1 0 9 Furthermore, even i f such machines are p r o f i t a b l e i n d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s , they can " i n p r i n c i p l e be s u p p l i e d on a custom s e r v i c e b a s i s , so that t h e i r a v a i l a b i l i t y need not depend on farm . s i z e . The economies of s c a l e argument i s not n e c e s s a r i l y r e l e v a n t i n s o f a r as a g r i c u l t u r a l in d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s i s c o n c e r n e d . " 1 1 0 During the 1971-72 maha season, over 70% of paddy f i e l d s i n Anuradhapura were prepared with 4-wheel t r a c t o r s . 1 1 1 Dry zone farmers r e l i e d on t r a c t o r s because of an acute shortage of draught animals and because of a need to prepare a g r i c u l t u r a l land q u i c k l y , p a r t i c u l a r l y i n areas where water supply was u n c e r t a i n . 1 1 2 I t i s of i n t e r e s t that f i e l d 1 0 8 W i l l i a m R. C l i n e , ' A g r i c u l t u r a l S t r a t e g y and R u r a l Income D i s t r i b u t i o n ' , i n G e r a l d M. Meier (ed.) , Op. C i t . , pp.612-616, p.61 3 1 0 9 I b i d . , p.613 1 1 0 I b i d . , p.613 1 1 1 " r h . e A g r a r i a n S i t u a t i o n R e l a t i n g to Paddy C u l t i v a t i o n i n F i v e S e l e c t e d D i s t r i c t s of S r i Lanka', Part 4-Anuradhapura D i s t r i c t , Research Study S e r i e s No.9, A g r a r i a n Research and T r a i n i n g I n s t i t u t e , Colombo, 1975, p.89 1 1 2 'The A g r a r i a n S i t u a t i o n R e l a t i n g to Paddy C u l t i v a t i o n i n F i v e S e l e c t e d D i s t r i c t s of S r i Lanka', Part 6-Comparative A n a l y s i s , Research Studie S e r i e s No.11, A g r a r i a n Research and T r a i n i n g I n s t i t u t e , Colombo, 1975, p.26 44 p r e p a r a t i o n , sowing, and o v e r a l l a g r i c u l t u r a l p r o d u c t i v i t y were at l e a s t p a r t i a l l y dependent upon p a t t e r n s of ownership of farm m a c h i n e r y : 1 1 3 In both Anuradhapura and Hambantota where t r a c t o r i s the main source of draught power, over 90% of the t r a c t o r users h i r e t h e i r machines mostly from n o n - c u l t i v a t o r s , v i z . merchants, m i l l e r s , Gambarayas and l a n d l o r d s . In view of the general shortage of machinery i n the country and the t r a c t o r users being h e a v i l y dependent on h i r e d machines farmers o f t e n f a i l to complete sowing a c c o r d i n g to s t i p u l a t e d time schedules...The time of sowing i s a c r u c i a l f a c t o r from the p o i n t of view of p r o d u c t i v i t y . Crops sown i n the peak p e r i o d i n November have given higher acre y i e l d s both i n Hambantota and Polonnaruwa than those sown l a t e r i n the season, i n d i c a t i n g the i n f l u e n c e of time of sowing on y i e l d s . While i n c r e a s e d o i l p r i c e s r e s u l t e d i n widespread use of 2- wheel t r a c t o r s and b u f f a l o s f o r draught power d u r i n g the middle 1970's, i t i s c l e a r t h at some dry zone farmers may have b e n e f i t e d from economies of s c a l e d u r i n g the p e r i o d under study. Whether or not l e v e l s of a g r i c u l t u r a l p r o d u c t i o n are dependent upon economies of s c a l e , evidence from f i e l d s t u d i e s i n d i c a t e s t hat farm s i z e and a g r i c u l t u r a l p r o d u c t i v i t y are i n v e r s e l y r e l a t e d i n the dry zone. I t i s e v i d e n t from the f o l l o w i n g t a b l e that paddy y i e l d s i n Polonnaruwa, Hambantota, and Anuradhapura were hi g h e s t where h o l d i n g s were l e s s than 6 1 1 3 I b i d . , pp.26-27 a c r e s . 1 1" 1 1 4 I b i d . , Table 4-II, 'Average y i e l d s per acre i n r e l a t i o n s i z e of h o l d i n g ( b u s h e l s ) , Maha 1971/72', p.22 46 Table 3: Average Y i e l d s per Acre i n R e l a t i o n to S i z e of Holding in Bushels (Maha 1971/72) Maha 1971/72 Upto 2.00- 4.00- 6 .00- 8.00- Over Average 2.00 4.00 6.00 8 .00 10.00 10.00 Polonnaruwa 49 69 71 59 50 50 62 Hambantota 37 40 35 29* 34 Anuradhapura 46 43 41 36 49 37 40 Yala 1972 Polonnaruwa 41 58 47 49 49 54 50 Hambantota 29 32 21 19* 24 Anuradhapura 38 48 50 35 74 27 38 *6 acres and over It i s hypothesized that the farm s i z e has a d i r e c t e f f e c t on income because a g r i c u l t u r e i s the primary source of income i n the dry z o n e . 1 1 5 7. C u l t u r a l F a c t o r s and F e r t i l i t y Yotopoulos d e f i n e s c u l t u r a l f a c t o r s as "a complex of i d e o l o g i c a l f a c t o r s . . . w h i c h has been formed around the i n s t i t u t i o n of the f a m i l y " . 1 1 6 Knodel and van de Walle p o i n t 1 1 5 ARTI, Op. C i t . , Part 4-Anuradhapura D i s t r i c t , p.80 1 1 6 Yotopoulos, Op. C i t . , p.27 47 out that the s t a t u s of women i s a c u l t u r a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c , and tha t c u l t u r a l values which d e f i n e women's r o l e s may have a str o n g i n f l u e n c e on f e r t i l i t y . 1 1 7 One c u l t u r a l f e a t u r e that we b e l i e v e the h i s t o r i c a l r e c o r d suggests i s p a r t i c u l a r l y important i s the s t a t u s of women. We regard t h i s more as a c u l t u r a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c than a socioeconomic or s t r u c t u r a l one s i n c e the extent to which women p a r t i c i p a t e i n the broader socioeconomic system beyond the home and extended f a m i l y appears to be determined more by r e l i g i o u s and other c u l t u r a l v a l u e s than by socioeconomic development per se. Of course the two are r e l a t e d , but the p o i n t i s that the success of both f a m i l y p l a n n i n g programs and more gene r a l development e f f o r t s designed to a f f e c t f e r t i l i t y may be q u i t e dependent on the c u l t u r a l b e l i e f s r e g a r d i n g the a p p r o p r i a t e r o l e of women. T h i s i m p l i c a t i o n i s c o n s i s t e n t with the evidence suggesting that women may be more r e c e p t i v e than men to the l i m i t a t i o n of f a m i l y s i z e , at l e a s t i n circumstances where f e r t i l i t y i s q u i t e h i g h . In c u l t u r a l s e t t i n g s where the female r o l e i s subordinate to the extreme and where women are i s o l a t e d from the broader communication network, p o l i c i e s designed to a l t e r the s t a t u s of women may be more conducive to reduced f e r t i l i t y than e i t h e r f a m i l y p l a n n i n g or more gen e r a l development e f f o r t s . As w i l l be c l e a r from d i s c u s s i o n i n chapter I I I , i n the dry zone, the e f f e c t of c u l t u r e on f e r t i l i t y appears to be str o n g e r i n the Muslim community than i n other communities. T h i s i s p r i m a r i l y due to the i n f l u e n c e of Muslim c u l t u r e on the r o l e of women. The Muslim p o p u l a t i o n i s very s u b s t a n t i a l i n some 1 1 7 John Knodel and E t i e n n e van de Walle, "Lessons from the Past : P o l i c y I m p l i c a t i o n s of H i s t o r i c a l F e r t i l i t y S t u d i e s " , i n P o p u l a t i o n and Development Review, Vol.5, No.2, June 1979, pp.217-245, p.238 48 d i s t r i c t s and almost n e g l i g i b l e i n oth e r s , and there i s reason to b e l i e v e that t h i s might p r o v i d e some e x p l a n a t i o n f o r d i s t r i c t - w i s e v a r i a t i o n i n both age at marriage and e d u c a t i o n . 1 1 3 Diagram II i n d i c a t e s t h a t c u l t u r a l f a c t o r s i n f l u e n c e f e r t i l i t y i n d i r e c t l y , due to t h e i r e f f e c t s on age at marriage, l i t e r a c y , and income, as we l l as d i r e c t l y . I t i s hypothesized that c u l t u r e i n f l u e n c e s f e r t i l i t y d i r e c t l y s i n c e there i s evidence to suggest Muslim women d e s i r e l a r g e r f a m i l i e s than women from other r e l i g i o u s communities. This i s c l e a r from the f o l l o w i n g t a b l e : 1 1 9 1 1 8 For i n s t a n c e , the percentage of the p o p u l a t i o n which i s Muslim i n Amparai, Trincomolee, and Mannar i s 46%, 32%, and 28% r e s p e c t i v e l y . Muslims account f o r only about 2% of the p o p u l a t i o n i n Hambantota and J a f f n a , and l e s s than 5% of the p o p u l a t i o n of Kurunegala. 1 1 9 "World F e r t i l i t y Survey, S r i Lanka, 1975, F i r s t Report". Department of Census and S t a t i s t i c s , S r i Lanka, March 1978. See Table 6.6, p.117. 49 Table 4: Mean T o t a l Number of C h i l d r e n D e s i r e d by C u r r e n t l y M a r r i e d Women Aged 25-34, by Background V a r i a b l e s A: Observed, and B: Standardized on the Cohort's D i s t r i b u t i o n of Family S i z e ( C a t e g o r i e s 0-1,3,4,5+) ( O v e r a l l mean i s 3.5) RELIGION Buddhist Hindu Muslim C h r i s t i a n A 3.4 3.5 4.3 3.3 B 3.5 3.6 3.8 3.3 I t i s hypothesized that c u l t u r e i n f l u e n c e s f e r t i l i t y i n d i r e c t l y , due to i t s e f f e c t on educati o n , s i n c e Muslims; p a r t i c u l a r l y Muslim women, tend to have l e s s s c h o o l i n g than members of other c u l t u r a l groups. Throughout the c o l o n i a l p e r i o d the S r i Lanka Muslims a s s i d u o u s l y r e f r a i n e d from sending t h e i r c h i l d r e n to schools which p r o v i d e d Western educa t i o n , since these were j u s t i f i a b l y p e r c e i v e d to be v e h i c l e s of C h r i s t i a n p r o s e l y t i z a t i o n . T h i s was p a r t i c u l a r l y t rue d u r i n g the p e r i o d that Ceylon was under the B r i t i s h : 1 2 0 They repudiated the Macaulayan co n c e p t i o n of e d u c a t i o n . (That i s they wanted to pres e r v e t h e i r r e l i g i o n and c u l t u r e at the co s t of an E n g l i s h education.) Hence there 1 2 0 K.H.M. Sumathipala, H i s t o r y of Education i n Ceylon: 1796- 1965 Dehiwala, Ceylon, 1968, p.36; c i t a t i o n i s from A.M.A. Azeez, R e p r i n t s of A r t i c l e s and Speeches, Vol.1 50 was a p e r i o d of non-co-operation with modern e d u c a t i o n . E n g l i s h education became c l o s e l y a s s o c i a t e d with C h r i s t i a n i t y and q u i t e n a t u r a l l y the s p i r i t of non-co- o p e r a t i o n hardened among Muslims. They were not prepared to endanger the f a i t h of t h e i r c h i l d r e n even though they were f u l l y c o n s cious that thereby they were s a c r i f i c i n g t h e i r chances of o b t a i n i n g government jobs. The Muslims co n t i n u e d to show some r e l u c t a n c e to e n r o l t h e i r c h i l d r e n i n non-Muslim s c h o o l s even a f t e r Independence. T h i s i s in s p i t e of the f a c t t h a t the Education Ordinance of 1947 contained a p r o v i s i o n intended to insure that " i n s t r u c t i o n i n the r e l i g i o n of the parent of each p u p i l would be given to the p u p i l as p a r t of h i s course of s t u d i e s " i n government s c h o o l s . 1 2 1 As there are not enough Muslim schools to adequately meet the needs of the Muslim p o p u l a t i o n , l e v e l s of enrolment are not as h i g h as they might otherwise b e . 1 2 2 Furthermore, Muslims g e n e r a l l y p r e f e r that s c h o o l c h i l d r e n be segregated a c c o r d i n g to sex. C h i l d r e n are not segregated i n p u b l i c s c h o o l s , and t h i s i s p r o b a b l y one reason why l i t e r a c y i s p a r t i c u l a r l y low f o r Muslim women. 1 2 1 J.E. Jayasurya, E d u c a t i o n a l P o l i c i e s and Progress During the B r i t i s h Rule i n Ceylon ( S r i Lanka) 1796-1948 A s s o c i a t e d E d u c a t i o n a l P u b l i s h e r s , Colombo, p.523 1 2 2 A f t e r 1971, SLFP M i n i s t e r of Education Badiudin Mohamed pro v i d e d the Muslim community with a d d i t i o n a l a l l - M u s l i m schools and upgraded many of the p r e v i o u s l y e x i s t i n g ones in an attempt to overcome t h i s problem. I am indebted to S.H. Hasbullah f o r t h i s , and o t h e r i n f o r m a t i o n , concerning the Muslim community i n S r i Lanka. 51 T r a d i t i o n a l l y , Muslim c u l t u r e does not pl a c e much value on the educa t i o n of women. Hindus and Buddhists value female education as a means of reducing dowry payments. I f a women i s educated she i s l i k e l y to f i n d employment, and t h e r e f o r e r e q u i r e s a smal l e r dowry. Muslims do not have a dowry system, and there i s no stimulus toward female education on that account. S i m i l a r l y , Muslim women do not r e q u i r e s e c u l a r education s i n c e i t i s not customary f o r Muslim women to seek employment a f t e r they are married. As i s evident from the f o l l o w i n g n a t i o n a l t a b l e , Muslim women have r e l a t i v e l y low education and are l e s s l i k e l y to be employed a f t e r marriage than women with other r e l i g i o u s a f f i l i a t i o n s : 1 2 3 1 2 3 Department of Census and S t a t i s t i c s , 1978, Op. C i t . , Table 3.4, ' A s s o c i a t i o n of other explanatory v a r i a b l e s with r e l i g i o n ' , p.53 52 Table 5: A s s o c i a t i o n of V a r i o u s Explanatory V a r i a b l e s with R e l i g i o n [women onl y ] R e l i g i o n Education Husband's P a t t e r n of Work more than Occupation Never Worked "away" 5 years farming Worked a f t e r marriage % % % % Buddhist 42 39 47 19 Hindu 25 61 39 49 Muslim 21 29 79 12 C h r i s t i a n 59 27 50 25 ALL 38 42 48 25 Given that one of the main reasons f o r d e f e r r a l of marriage i n S r i Lanka d u r i n g recent years has been s c h o o l i n g , i t i s not s u r p r i s i n g t h a t Muslims, and Muslim women i n p a r t i c u l a r , tend to marry e a r l i e r than members of other c u l t u r a l groups. The mean age at marriage f o r women i s provided i n the f o l l o w i n g t a b l e a c c o r d i n g to r e l i g i o u s a f f i l i a t i o n and et h n i c b a c k g round. 1 2" 1 2 4 "world F e r t i l i t y Survey, S r i Lanka, 1975", Department of Census and S t a t i s t i c s , Op. C i t . , p.62. See Table 4.4. 53 Table 6: Mean Age at Marriage of Women who Ma r r i e d Before Age 25, by R e l i g i o n and E t h n i c i t y A: For Women with Current Age 25 -49 B: For Women with Current Age 25 -29 (The o v e r a l l mean age at marriage i s 18. 2 f o r women aged 25 - 4 c and 18.9 for women aged 25-29) RELIGION Buddhist Hindu Muslim C h r i s t i a n A 18.5 17.3 16.6 18.6 B 19.5 18.0 16.6 19.4 ETHNIC GROUP Si n h a l e s e S r i Lanka Indian S r i Lanka Tamil Tamil Moor A 18.6 17.5 17.2 16.5 B 19.5 18.0 18.2 16.5 As suggested i n the World F e r t i l i t y Survey, "the hig h f e r t i l i t y of Muslims i s due mainly to t h e i r e a r l y age at m a r r i a g e " . 1 2 5 I t i s a l s o hypothesized that c u l t u r a l f a c t o r s might i n d i r e c t l y i n f l u e n c e f e r t i l i t y by v i r t u e of some r e l a t i o n s h i p between c u l t u r e and income, although there i s no evidence i n the l i t e r a t u r e to suggest whether or not t h i s r e l a t i o n s h i p might be p o s i t i v e or nega t i v e . I t i s a l s o p o s s i b l e that c u l t u r a l f a c t o r s i n f l u e n c e f e r t i l i t y d i r e c t l y , s i n c e communal r i v a l r i e s may have some 1 2 5 I b i d . , p. 154 54 i n f l u e n c e on f e r t i l i t y . For i n s t a n c e , Buddhist r e l i g i o u s l e a d e r s have been p a r t i c u l a r l y concerned that f a m i l y p l a n n i n g might j e o p a r d i z e the m a j o r i t y p o s i t i o n enjoyed by the S i n h a l e s e p o p u l a t i o n : 1 2 6 A s u s t a i n e d a t t a c k on f a m i l y p l a n n i n g campaigns was set i n motion by members of the Buddhist c l e r g y , l e d by the Mahanayake Theras of Malwatte and A s g i r i y a and the Reverend Madihe Pannasha, a redoubtable champion of the cause of S i h n a l l a B uddhists. Not long a f t e r i t had been made a n a t i o n a l programme i n Ceylon, the Mahanayake of Malwatte d e c l a r e d f a m i l y p l a n n i n g to be i n i m i c a l to the S i n h a l e s e people and c a l l e d upon S i n h a l e s e women to a b s t a i n from u s i n g f a m i l y p l a n n i n g methods. In a s e r i e s of a r t i c l e s to the p r e s s w r i t t e n i n 1969 and 1970, the Reverend Madihe Pannasiha p o i n t e d to the i n e x o r a b l e and i n e v i t a b l e e f f e c t which f a m i l y p l a n n i n g would have of undermining the e t h n i c c o n s t i t u t i o n of the p o p u l a t i o n of the country, to the disadvantage of S i n h a l a B u d d h i s t s . Pannasiha Thero used s t a t i s t i c s to argue that the m a j o r i t y community of Ceylon would e v e n t u a l l y be transformed i n t o a m i n o r i t y community as a r e s u l t of the f a m i l y p l a n n i n g movement. The q u e s t i o n of f a m i l y p l a n n i n g and communal i n t e r e s t s has been a matter of c o n s i d e r a b l e i n t e r e s t i n the p r e s s , and no doubt i n f l u e n c e d the r a t e of implementation of f a m i l y p l a n n i n g i n S r i L a n k a . 1 2 7 I t i s q u e s t i o n a b l e , however, that communal sentiments have been a f a c t o r i n the f e r t i l i t y d e c i s i o n s of f a m i l i e s . 1 2 6 S.U. Kodikara, "Family Planning i n Ceylon", i n T.E. Smith, The P o l i t i c s of Family Planning i n the T h i r d World, George, A l l a n & Unwin L t d . , London, 1973, p.311 1 2 7 I b i d . , p.312 and pp.326-329 55 While both the Tamil and S i n h a l e s e segments of the p o p u l a t i o n fear that t h e i r r e l a t i v e numbers might d i m i n i s h , there i s nothing i n the l i t e r a t u r e which suggests t h a t such f e a r p r o v i d e s a m o t i v a t i o n f o r i n c r e a s e d f e r t i l i t y . 1 2 8 The q u e s t i o n of whether communal r i v a l r i e s might p r o v i d e an e x p l a n a t i o n f o r high f e r t i l i t y i s d e a l t with i n chapter I I I , where i t w i l l be shown that c u l t u r a l f a c t o r s , i n s o f a r as Hindus and Buddhists are concerned, do not p r o v i d e much e x p l a n a t i o n f o r f e r t i l i t y d i f f e r e n t i a l s i n the dry zone. 8. I r r i g a t i o n , Paddy Y i e l d , Farm Management P r a c t i c e s and Income In the case of S r i Lanka's dry zone, i t i s convenient to c o n s i d e r a g r i c u l t u r a l development i n terms of water supply c o n d i t i o n s , farm managment p r a c t i c e s , and paddy y i e l d . I t i s hypothesized t h a t , i n the d i s t r i c t s under study, major i r r i g a t i o n leads to improved farm management p r a c t i c e s and to higher a g r i c u l t u r a l p r o d u c t i v i t y . Areas under major i r r i g a t i o n should t h e r e f o r e have higher y i e l d s than areas which are c h a r a c t e r i z e d by minor and r a i n f e d i r r i g a t i o n systems. As paddy pr o v i d e s the main source of income f o r farm f a m i l i e s l i v i n g i n the dry zone, p a r t i c u l a r l y i n areas under major schemes, paddy 1 2 8 For i n s t a n c e , i t i s not suggested that communal r i v a l r i e s are a f a c t o r i n f e r t i l i t y decision-making in e i t h e r the World F e r t i l i t y Survey or Abayaratne and Jayawardene's F e r t i l i t y i n Ceylon, both of which i n v e s t i g a t e f a c t o r s which i n f l u e n c e f e r t i l i t y d e c i s i o n s . 56 y i e l d should be p o s i t i v e l y a s s o c i a t e d with i n c o m e . 1 2 9 The hypothesis that major i r r i g a t i o n c o n t r i b u t e s to a g r i c u l t u r a l p r o d u c t i v i t y i s s t r o n g l y supported by f i e l d s t u d i e s conducted by the A g r a r i a n Research and T r a i n i n g I n s t i t u t e . 1 3 0 S t u d i e s of the a g r a r i a n s i t u a t i o n with respect to paddy p r o d u c t i o n are a v a i l a b l e f o r three of the twelve dry zone d i s t r i c t s . These are Hambantota, Anuradhapura, and Polonnaruwa. The s t u d i e s i n d i c a t e that major i r r i g a t i o n leads to i n c r e a s e d paddy p r o d u c t i o n f o r s e v e r a l reasons. U n c e r t a i n t y of water supply i s a major reason f o r crop f a i l u r e i n areas which are s e r v i c e d by minor and r a i n f e d i r r i g a t i o n systems, as f i n d i n g s from the Anuradhapura study i n d i c a t e : 1 3 1 T h i s data presented shows a r e l a t i v e l y c l o s e r e l a t i o n s h i p between the q u a l i t y of i r r i g a t i o n experienced p a r t i c u l a r l y d u r i n g the f l o w e r i n g stage of paddy and the acre y i e l d s harvested. 80% of the operators i n the lowest y i e l d group ( l e s s than 20 bushels) have had a poor water supply at f l o w e r i n g w h i l s t only 8% of those who had r e p o r t e d y i e l d s of over 60 bushels per acre had experienced s i m i l a r c o n d i t i o n s . . . g i v e n the u n c e r t a i n t y of r a i n , i r r i g a t i o n remains a c r i t i c a l f a c t o r i n determining acre y i e l d s . 1 2 9 Over 75% of gross farm income was d e r i v e d from paddy c u l t i v a t i o n i n the three dry zone d i s t r i c t s s t u d i e d by the A g r a r i a n Research and T r a i n i n g I n s t i t u t e (ARTI). See "The A g r a r i a n S i t u a t i o n R e l a t i n g to Paddy C u l t i v a t i o n i n F i v e S e l e c t e d D i s t r i c t s of Sri.Lanka", ARTI, Research Study S e r i e s #11, P a r t 6, p.30. 1 3 0 I b i d . , P a r t s 1, 3, and 4 I b i d . , Part 4 57 The r i s k of crop f a i l u r e i s much higher i n areas under minor and r a i n f e d schemes than i t i s i n areas under major schemes, where water supply i s more assured. Farmers whose f i e l d s are s u p p l i e d by minor and r a i n f e d i r r i g a t i o n are t h e r e f o r e c o n s i d e r a b l y more r e l u c t a n t to i n v e s t i n the new, high y i e l d i n g but c a p i t a l - i n t e n s i v e seed t e c h n o l o g i e s , than t h e i r c o u n t e r p a r t s . I t i s w e l l known that 'high y i e l d i n g ' v a r i e t i e s of seed do not perform w e l l without the a p p l i c a t i o n of l a r g e q u a n t i t i e s of f e r t i l i z e r s and i n s e c t i c i d e s . Costs r e l a t i n g to f i e l d p r e p a r a t i o n , t r a n s p l a n t i n g as opposed to b r o a d c a s t i n g by t r a d i t i o n a l methods, and h a r v e s t i n g must be taken i n t o c o n s i d e r a t i o n by farmers before they adopt higher y i e l d i n g seed t e c h n o l o g i e s . The f o l l o w i n g t a b l e shows that i n Anuradhapura the average cash o u t l a y by farmers with major i r r i g a t i o n i s more than double the cash o u t l a y by farmers w i t h minor i r r i g a t i o n . 1 3 2 The p a t t e r n i s s i m i l a r f o r both Hambantota and Polonnaruwa, and f o r both the maha as w e l l as the y a l a s e a s o n . 1 3 3 1 3 2 I b i d . , p.84. See Table 7-XVIII, 'Cash Outlay per a c r e f o r Paddy C u l t i v a t i o n a c c o r d i n g to Water Supply - Yala 1972'. 1 3 3 I b i d . , P a r t s 1 and 3, pp. 134 and 106 r e s p e c t i v e l y 58 Table 7: Cash Outlay per acre f o r Paddy C u l t i v a t i o n a c c o r d i n g to Source of Water Supply Y a l a 1972 Source of Water Supply Major Minor 48 21 Extent C u l t i v a t e d (acres) 214.06 43 .25 Expenses Items of Expenditure Amount Amount Rs. % Rs. % 1. F i e l d Operations 253 74 1 23 82 i . T r a c t o r i n c l u d i n g f u e l c o s t s 93 27 79 53 i i . B u f f a l o 1 3 4 1 1 7 i i i . H i r e d Labour (a) Wages 105 31 19 13 (b) Food 42 12 14 9 2. Inputs 49 14 17 1 1 3. M i s c e l l a n e o u s i . Land Acreage Tax & Land Rent 32 9 6 4 i i . T r a n s p ort 6 2 3 2 T o t a l 340 100 1 49 100 In Anuradhapura, per acre e x p e n d i t u r e s on h i r e d labour are over 5 times g r e a t e r i n areas under major schemes. The amount spent on h i r e d labour i s the g r e a t e s t category of d i f f e r e n t i a l expenditure i n a l l three d i s t r i c t s . Much of the 59 d i f f e r e n c e i n labour c o s t s i s due to the use of t r a n s p l a n t i n g techniques by farmers whose f i e l d s are s u p p l i e d by major i r r i g a t i o n . 1 3 4 T r a n s p l a n t i n g i s c l e a r l y a s s o c i a t e d with both major i r r i g a t i o n and the use of high y i e l d i n g v a r i e t i e s . 1 3 5 In Polonnaruwa under major schemes t r a n s p l a n t e d crops have s i g n i f i c a n t l y out- y i e l d e d the broadcast crops, the d i f f e r e n c e i n y i e l d being 28 bushels f o r NHYV's and 20 bushels f o r OHYV" s per ac r e . The very small p r o p o r t i o n of the area t r a n s p l a n t e d under minor schemes i n the dry zone... shows the r e l u c t a n c e of farmers to adopt techniques that are a s s o c i a t e d with high expenses under l e s s f a v o u r a b l e environmental c o n d i t i o n s . That water supply c o n d i t i o n s i n f l u e n c e the type of seed which i s sown i s evi d e n t from the f o l l o w i n g t a b l e s : 1 3 6 1 3 4 T h i s was t r u e f o r a l l three d i s t r i c t s . 1 3 5 I b i d . , Part 6, Comparative A n a l y s i s , pp. 25-26 1 3 6 I b i d . , Part 4, Tables 5-VIII and 5-IX, p.56. The terms NHYV, OHYV, and TV stand f o r new high y i e l d i n g v a r i e t i e s , o l d high y i e l d i n g v a r i e t i e s , and t r a d i t i o n a l v a r i e t i e s r e s p e c t i v e l y . 60 Table 8: D i s t r i b u t i o n of V a r i e t i e s a c c o r d i n g to Water Supply dur i n g Maha 1971/72 NHYV OHYV TV T o t a l Water Supply (acres) (acres) (acres) (acres) Major I r r i g a t i o n % 83.00 1 7 324.31 68 71 .75 1 5 479.06 100 Minor I r r i g a t i o n % 33.75 5 531.51 84 67.75 1 1 633.01 1 00 T o t a l % 116.75 10 855.82 77 139.50 13 1112.07 100 able 9: D i s t r i b u t i o n of V a r i e t i e s a c c o r d i n g to Water Supply d u r i n g Y a l a 1972 NHYV OHYV TV T o t a l Water Supply (acres) (acres) (acres) (acres) Major I r r i g a t i o n % 66.50 28 14.00 6 160.56 67 241.06 100 Minor I r r i g a t i o n % 2.00 3 9.75 1 6 47.88 80 59.63 100 T o t a l % 68.50 23 23.75 8 208.44 69 300.69 100 NHYV's are most common i n areas c h a r a c t e r i z e d by major schemes. OHYV's and TV's are a s s o c i a t e d with minor schemes. In Polonnaruwa, the average y i e l d f o r NHYV's was 84 bushels per ac r e ; f o r OHYV's the average y i e l d was only 56 bushels per a c r e . 1 3 7 Major i r r i g a t i o n c o n t r i b u t e s t o higher y i e l d s s i n c e i t 1 3 7 I b i d . , Part 4, p.25 61 f a c i l i t a t e s the spread of new v a r i e t i e s . R e s u l t s from the ARTI s t u d i e s i n d i c a t e t hat " d i f f e r e n t s i t u a t i o n s r e l a t i n g to water supply... g i v e r i s e to income d i s p a r i t i e s " and that o p e r a t o r s under assured water supply schemes a r e i n a b e t t e r p o s i t i o n to adopt a package of improved farm p r a c t i c e s . 1 3 8 Gross incomes from paddy s a l e s are i n v a r i a b l y h i g h e s t i n areas which b e n e f i t from major i r r i g a t i o n , a l t h o u g h evidence that r e a l income i n c r e a s e s i n r e l a t i o n to paddy y i e l d i s not s t r o n g . In Hambantota, farmers whose f i e l d s were s u p p l i e d by major i r r i g a t i o n o b t ained 65% more net income per acre than farmers whose f i e l d s were dependent upon minor s c h e m e s . 1 3 9 However, f i n d i n g s f o r Anuradhapura show t h a t y i e l d advantages a s s o c i a t e d with major i r r i g a t i o n and the use of new seed t e c h n o l o g i e s were more than o f f s e t by higher p r o d u c t i o n e x p e n s e s . 1 " 0 In t h i s d i s t r i c t , farmers whose f i e l d s were s u p p l i e d by minor i r r i g a t i o n r e c e i v e d 11% more net income per acre than farmers under major schemes. Information on the net incomes of farmers a c c o r d i n g to water supply i s not p r o v i d e d f o r Polonnaruwa, due to the f a c t t h at the number of farmers under minor schemes i n the sample was 1 3 8 I b i d . , Part 6, Comparative A n a l y s i s , P.32 1 3 9 I b i d . , Part 1, Hambantota D i s t r i c t , p.138. F i n d i n g s are f o r the y a l a season o n l y . 1"° I b i d . , Part 4, Anuradhapura D i s t r i c t , p.84 62 s m a l l . 1 4 1 I t might be noted however, that the average net income per acre was 25% higher i n Polonnaruwa than that obtained by farmers under minor i r r i g a t i o n i n Anuradhapura. O v e r a l l , the evidence from f i e l d s t u d i e s seems to support the hypothesis t h a t i n c r e a s e s i n paddy y i e l d have a p o s i t i v e e f f e c t on income. 9. C o n t r a c e p t i o n and F e r t i l i t y I t i s g e n e r a l l y accepted that " c o n t r a c e p t i v e p r a c t i c e i s t h e . . . v a r i a b l e p r i m a r i l y r e s p o n s i b l e f o r the wide range i n the l e v e l s of f e r t i l i t y w i t h i n marriage among p o p u l a t i o n s t o d a y . " 1 4 2 M a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y i s of p a r t i c u l a r i n t e r e s t i n the case of S r i Lanka,, s i n c e p r a c t i c a l l y a l l b i r t h s i n that country occur w i t h i n m a r r i a g e . 1 4 3 The r e l a t i o n between age at marriage and f e r t i l i t y has al r e a d y been d i s c u s s e d i n some d e t a i l , and i s su b j e c t e d to a s t a t i s t i c a l a n a l y s i s i n the f o l l o w i n g c h a p t e r s . U n f o r t u n a t e l y , d i s t r i c t - w i s e data on m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y r a t e s and c o n t r a c e p t i v e use are u n a v a i l a b l e and i t w i l l not be p o s s i b l e to measure the e f f e c t of f a m i l y p l a n n i n g on f e r t i l i t y i n t h i s study. S t i l l , the s u b j e c t of fa m i l y p l a n n i n g cannot be overlooked. S u f f i c i e n t i n f o r m a t i o n i s a v a i l a b l e from other s t u d i e s to give some i n s i g h t with r e s p e c t 1 4 1 I b i d . , P a r t 3, Polonnaruwa D i s t r i c t , p.106 1 4 2 John Bongaarts, "A Framework f o r A n a l y z i n g the Proximate Determinants of F e r t i l i t y " , i n P o p u l a t i o n and Development Review, Vo l . 4 , No.1, March 1978, p.110. 1 4 3 F i g u r e s f o r 1975 i n d i c a t e that only 2% of women experienced a b i r t h p r i o r to t h e i r f i r s t marriage. See I n t e r n a t i o n a l S t a t i s t i c a l I n s t i t u t e , Op. C i t . , p.90. 63 to the r e l a t i v e importance of f a m i l y p l a n n i n g to f e r t i l i t y i n S r i Lanka and the dry zone. The GOSL launched the Family Planning Programme l a t e in 1965, and a l l - i s l a n d coverage of the programme was achieved in 1968. 1" 1 1 A g e - s p e c i f i c m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y r a t e s d e c l i n e d d u r i n g the p e r i o d from 1963 to 1971 and there i s some evidence that t h i s t r e n d i s due to higher l e v e l s of c o n t r a c e p t i v e use by married c o u p l e s . 1 " 5 The change i n m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y d uring t h i s p e r i o d has been g r e a t e s t f o r women above the age of twen t y - f i v e years, which suggests that o l d e r women may be using f a m i l y p l a n n i n g techniques i n order to prevent f u r t h e r b i r t h s . 1"" I b i d . , pp.8-9 1 " 5 "Census of Po p u l a t i o n 1971 S r i Lanka, General Report", Department of Census and S t a t i s t i c s , Colombo, p.26 64 T h i s i s evident from the f o l l o w i n g t a b l e . 1 4 6 Table 10: Age S p e c i f i c M a r i t a l F e r t i l i t y Rates f o r S r i Lanka: 1963-1972 Age S p e c i f i c M a r i t a l Age Group F e r t i l i t y Rates Percentage Change 1 963 1 971 15-19 354 418 + 18.1 20-24 396 388 - 2.0 25-29 344 313 - 9.0 30-34 270 237 - 12.2 35-39 1 75 157 - 10.3 40-44 53 49 - 7.5 45-49 8 8 0.0 Fernando has shown that d u r i n g the p e r i o d from 1963 to 1970, the " a l l - i s l a n d p a t t e r n of m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e among o l d e r women (30-44) i s n o t i c e d i n a l l four zones", and that the d e c l i n e was most pronounced i n zones II and I V . 1 4 7 Zone II corresponds to the dry zone d i s t r i c t s Hambantota, Moneragala, Amparai, Polonnaruwa, Anuradhapura, and Puttalam. The most dramatic d e c l i n e i n m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y among younger women (15- 1 4 6 I b i d . , Table 2.6, 'Changes i n Age S p e c i f i c M a r i t a l F e r t i l i t y Rates i n S r i Lanka: 1963-1971', p.26 1 4 7 D a l l a s F. Fernando, "A Note on D i f f e r e n t i a l F e r t i l i t y i n S r i Lanka", Demography, V o l . 11, No.3, August 1974, p.447 65 29) o c c u r r e d i n zone I I I , which corresponds to J a f f n a , Mannar, Vavuniya, Trincomalee, and B a t t i c a l o a . 1 4 8 'The a l l - i s l a n d d e c l i n e i n m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y which o c c u r r e d between 1963 and 1971 i s p r i m a r i l y due to i n c r e a s e d l e v e l s of c o n t r a c e p t i v e use, both w i t h i n and o u t s i d e the Family Planning Programme, and i l l e g a l a b o r t i o n s . 1 4 9 Fernando r e p o r t s that f a m i l y p l a n n i n g a c t i v i t y "seems to have i n t e n s i f i e d c o n s i d e r a b l y i n 1973", and that i t i s very l i k e l y that i n c r e a s e d c o n t r a c e p t i v e use w i l l have a dramatic impact on f e r t i l i t y i n the f u t u r e . 1 5 0 However, i t i s important to note that the main f a c t o r s i n the d e c l i n e i n crude b i r t h r a t e d u r i n g the p e r i o d from 1963 to 1971 were changes i n m a r i t a l composition and r i s i n g age at marriage, even though d e c l i n e i n m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y was i m p o r t a n t . 1 5 1 D e t a i l e d i n f o r m a t i o n on c o n t r a c e p t i v e methods i n S r i Lanka i s of p a r t i c u l a r i n t e r e s t , i n that i t i n d i c a t e s that the r e s p o n s i b i l i t y f o r f a m i l y p l a n n i n g has f a l l e n l a r g e l y on women. 1 4 8 I b i d . , p.447 1 4 9 I b i d . , p.9 I t has been suggested that i l l e g a l a b o r t i o n s have "assumed epidemic p r o p o r t i o n s " i n S r i Lanka. See Ralph P i e r i s , " M o t i v a t i o n s R e l a t i n g to Family P l a n n i n g " , i n Marga, Vol . 5 , No.1, 1978, p.80. 1 5 0 D a l l a s F.S. Fernando, " F e r t i l i t y Trends in S r i Lanka and Future P r o s p e c t s " , i n J o u r n a l of B i o s o c i a l S c i e n c e , No.8, 1976, p.38 1 5 1 I b i d . , p.35, and Census of P o p u l a t i o n , 1971, General Report, p.26 66 Information with r e s p e c t to c o n t r a c e p t i v e use by new acc e p t o r s in 1971 i s presented i n the f o l l o w i n g t a b l e . 1 5 2 Table 11: New Accep t o r s of Family Planning at Government, M u n i c i p a l i t y , and Family Planning C l i n i c s , i n S r i Lanka: 1971 Co n t r a c e p t i v e Method T o t a l % Loop 11,446 23. 2 P i l l 25,828 52. 4 Condom 6,945 14. 1 Foam T a b l e t s 361 0. 7 S t e r i l i z a t i o n - male 245 0. 5 S t e r i l i z a t i o n - female 4,090 8 3 Other 408 0 .8 c l e a r from the above t a b l e t hat the p i l l and the the most commonly adopted forms of b i r t h c o n t r o l adopted by new acc e p t o r s i n 1971. Over 75% of new a c c e p t o r s adopted one of these two methods of b i r t h c o n t r o l , i n d i c a t i n g that f a m i l y p l a n n i n g i s very much the p r e r o g a t i v e of women. The number of women op t i n g f o r s t e r i l i z a t i o n i s a l s o of i n t e r e s t . 1 5 2 Fernando, 1976, Op. C i t . , Table 4, 'New a c c e p t o r s of f a m i l y p l a n n i n g at government, m u n i c i p a l i t y and f a m i l y p l a n n i n g a s s o c i a t i o n c l i n i c s , by methods, S r i Lanka, 1967-72', p.39 67 Chapter III 1 . I n t r o d u c t i o n It i s the purpose of t h i s chapter to p r o v i d e d e t a i l s of the methodology employed, and to d e a l with q u e s t i o n s which are of methodological i n t e r e s t . The d i s c u s s i o n i s d i v i d e d i n t o three p a r t s . F i r s t , path a n a l y s i s i s introduced i n s e c t i o n 2, s i n c e t h i s i s the methodology employed. Procedural steps taken are b r i e f l y o u t l i n e d i n s e c t i o n 3. The problem of e c o l o g i c a l c o r r e l a t i o n , which must be c o n s i d e r e d s i n c e s t a t i s t i c a l r e s u l t s are based on aggregate f i g u r e s and represent d i s t r i c t trends r a t h e r than the behavior of i n d i v i d u a l s , i s d e a l t with i n s e c t i o n 4. The f i n a l s e c t i o n p r o v i d e s d e t a i l s concerning the s t a t i s t i c a l model employed. 2. Path A n a l y s i s : A B r i e f D e s c r i p t i o n and some Caveats The most u s e f u l a p p l i c a t i o n of path a n a l y s i s i s to t e s t the r e l a t i v e s t r e n g t h of a l t e r n a t i v e h y p o t h e s e s . 1 5 3 Each path i n Yotopoulos' diagram i s based upon, and i s r e p r e s e n t a t i v e of, one or more hypotheses. In order to model some of the r e l a t i o n s h i p s d e p i c t e d i n t h i s diagram, and to determine which hypotheses provide the best e x p l a n a t i o n f o r 1 5 3 Fred N. K e r l i n g e r and E l a z e r J . Pedhazur, M u l t i p l e Regression i n B e h a v i o r a l Research, H o l t , Rinehart, and Winston, Inc., New York, 1973, p.305 68 d i s t r i c t - w i s e d i f f e r e n t i a l s i n f e r t i l i t y , path a n a l y s i s i s employed. Hypothesized r e l a t i o n s h i p s between or amongst v a r i a b l e s must be c l e a r l y s p e c i f i e d before a path model can be c o n s t r u c t e d , and s t a t i s t i c a l f i n d i n g s must be j u d i c i o u s l y i n t e r p r e t e d with r e f e r e n c e to a v a i l a b l e q u a l i t a t i v e i n f o r m a t i o n : 1 5 fl The method of path c o e f f i c i e n t s i s not intended to accomplish the i m p o s s i b l e task of deducing c a u s a l r e l a t i o n s from the v a l u e s of c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s . I t i s intended to combine the q u a n t i t a t i v e i n f o r m a t i o n given by the c o r r e l a t i o n s with such q u a l i t a t i v e i n f o r m a t i o n as may be on hand on c a u s a l r e l a t i o n s to g i v e a q u a n t i t a t i v e i n t e r p r e t a t i o n . I n s o f a r as the use of path a n a l y s i s i n t h i s study i s concerned, two c o n s i d e r a t i o n s are i n o r d e r . F i r s t , the i n t e r r e l a t i o n s h i p s amongst economic, i n t e r m e d i a t e , and demographic v a r i a b l e s are h i g h l y complex, and q u e s t i o n s p e r t i n e n t to the understanding of many fundamental r e l a t i o n s h i p s are s t i l l u n clear and open to d i v e r g e n t i n t e r p r e t a t i o n s . In cases where a path i s based upon more than one p l a u s i b l e h ypothesis, i t w i l l not n e c e s s a r i l y be p o s s i b l e to determine which hypothesis has the best e x p l a n a t o r y power even i f good s t a t i s t i c a l r e s u l t s are o b t a i n e d . 1 5 5 Second, s t a t i s t i c a l c o r r e l a t i o n i s no proof of c a u s e - a n d - e f f e c t , and 1 5 4 I b i d . , p.305 1 5 5 Nick E b e r s t a d t , F e r t i l i t y D e c l i n e i n the Less Developed C o u n t r i e s , Praeger P u b l i s h e r s , New York, 1981, p.3 69 when r e c i p r o c a l c ause-and-effect r e l a t i o n s h i p s between or amongst v a r i a b l e s are expected, the i n t e r p r e t a t i o n of s t a t i s t i c a l r e s u l t s becomes even more d i f f i c u l t . One of the g r e a t e s t problems with path a n a l y s i s i s the f a c t that path models are r e c u r s i v e : "the c a u s a l flow of the model i s u n i d i r e c t i o n a l . . . a t a given p o i n t i n time a v a r i a b l e cannot be both a cause and an e f f e c t of another v a r i a b l e " . 1 5 6 As DeWalt suggests, "simple r e c u r s i v e path a n a l y s i s . . . d o e s not allow f o r any feedback i n the s y s t e m " . 1 5 7 T h i s problem i s p a r t i c u l a r l y acute i n cases where data f o r o n l y one time p e r i o d are a v a i l a b l e , and a m p l i f i e s the importance of any q u a l i t a t i v e i n f o r m a t i o n which might be a v a i l a b l e from f i e l d s t u d i e s . In d e v e l o p i n g a model designed to c a p t u r e the e f f e c t s of a g r i c u l t u r a l development on f e r t i l i t y i n the dry zone, only the forward e f f e c t s of one v a r i a b l e on another are c o n s i d e r e d . T h i s i s a v i a b l e approach, s i n c e q u a n t i t a t i v e and q u a l i t a t i v e i n f o r m a t i o n which r e f l e c t s h i s t o r i c a l trends i s taken i n t o c o n s i d e r a t i o n . 3. A B r i e f Note on Procedure In order to c o n s t r u c t a path model and proceed toward an a n a l y s i s , s e v e r a l steps were necessa r y . F i r s t , a number of 1 5 6 K e r l i n g e r and Pedhazur, Op. C i t . , p.308 1 5 7 B i l l i e R. DeWalt, Modernization i n a Mexican E j i d o : A Study in Economic Adap t a t i o n , Cambridge U n i v e r s i t y Press, Cambridge, 1979, p.283 c7 0 hypotheses concerning the r e l a t i o n s h i p between a g r i c u l t u r a l development and f e r t i l i t y were c o n s t r u c t e d . T h i s was accomplished f o l l o w i n g a survey of the l i t e r a t u r e , and on the b a s i s of f i n d i n g s i n r e l e v a n t case s t u d i e s conducted i n S r i Lanka and the dry zone. Once i t was determined which hypotheses were to be t e s t e d , v a r i a b l e s to be i n c l u d e d i n the model were i d e n t i f i e d and t h e i r r e l a t i o n s h i p s were e s t a b l i s h e d . F o l l o w i n g t h i s , the r e g r e s s i o n equations which comprise the model were w r i t t e n . 1 5 8 I t must be remembered that many of the hypotheses upon which the model i s based i n v o l v e v a r i a b l e s which are not e a s i l y q u a n t i f i e d or f o r which data are otherwise not a v a i l a b l e , and the model i s only as d e t a i l e d as data w i l l p ermit. The next step was to s e l e c t a p p r o p r i a t e i n d i c a t o r s ' f o r v a r i a b l e s s p e c i f i e d i n the model. In many cases i t was necessary to choose between two or more i n d i c a t o r s from w i t h i n the same v a r i a b l e domain, and the most a p p r o p r i a t e i n d i c a t o r was determined from a c o r r e l a t i o n matrix d e r i v e d from data r e p r e s e n t i n g the twelve dry zone d i s t r i c t s . For i n s t a n c e , e i t h e r of two m o r t a l i t y i n d i c a t o r s might have been s e l e c t e d , s i n c e both crude death rate and i n f a n t m o r t a l i t y r a t e are presumed to i n f l u e n c e f e r t i l i t y . 1 5 9 As the c o r r e l a t i o n between the i n f a n t m o r t a l i t y r a t e and f e r t i l i t y i s +.62, and the 1 5 8 See Chapter I I I , s e c t i o n 5. 1 5 9 D i s t r i c t - w i s e c h i l d m o r t a l i t y r a t e s were u n a v a i l a b l e . 71 c o r r e l a t i o n between the crude death rate and f e r t i l i t y i s only +.14, i n f a n t m o r t a l i t y r a t e was s e l e c t e d f o r use i n the model. Once a l l of the i n d i c a t o r s had been chosen, r e g r e s s i o n equations c o n t a i n e d in the model were run u s i n g the SPSS programme. An even l e v e l of i n c l u s i o n was s p e c i f i e d , and the d i r e c t e f f e c t s of the independent v a r i a b l e s on the dependent v a r i a b l e s were obt a i n e d . I t was then p o s s i b l e to c o n s t r u c t a path diagram, and to i l l u s t r a t e r e l a t i o n s h i p s d e p i c t e d by the model in terms of path c o e f f i c i e n t s (beta v a l u e s ) . F o l l o w i n g t h i s , the i n d i r e c t e f f e c t s of the independent v a r i a b l e s were c a l c u l a t e d , and a g e n e r a l decomposition t a b l e i l l u s t r a t i n g d i r e c t , i n d i r e c t , and t o t a l ' c a u s a l ' r e l a t i o n s between d i f f e r e n t v a r i a b l e p a i r s was c o n s t r u c t e d . The numerical r e s u l t s c o ntained i n t h i s t a b l e p r ovide much of the q u a n t i t a t i v e i n f o r m a t i o n upon which f u r t h e r a n a l y s i s i s based. 4. E c o l o g i c a l C o r r e l a t i o n : The Problem and Some P r e c a u t i o n s As a n a l y s i s i s based on s t a t i s t i c a l r e s u l t s d e r i v e d from aggregate f i g u r e s which represent e n t i r e d i s t r i c t s , t h i s study i s e c o l o g i c i n nature. In i n t r o d u c i n g the s u b j e c t of e c o l o g i c s t u d i e s , Morgenstern makes the f o l l o w i n g o b s e r v a t i o n s : 1 6 0 1 6 0 Hal Morgenstern, "Uses of E c o l o g i c A n a l y s i s i n E p i d e m i o l o g i c Research", American J o u r n a l of P u b l i c H e a l t h " , No.72, pp.1336-1344, 1972 72 E c o l o g i c s t u d i e s are e m p i r i c a l i n v e s t i g a t i o n s i n v o l v i n g the group as the u n i t of a n a l y s i s . T y p i c a l l y , the group i s a g e o g r a p h i c a l l y d e f i n e d area, such as a s t a t e , county, or census t r a c t . Because they can o f t e n be done by combining e x i s t i n g data f i l e s on l a r g e p o p u l a t i o n s , e c o l o g i c s t u d i e s are g e n e r a l l y l e s s expensive and take l e s s time than s t u d i e s i n v o l v i n g the i n d i v i d u a l as the u n i t of a n a l y s i s ; e c o l o g i c s t u d i e s can a l s o achieve c e r t a i n o b j e c t i v e s g e n e r a l l y not met with nonecologic d e s i g n s . On the other hand, data on many v a r i a b l e s (e.g. b e h a v i o r s , a t t i t u d e s , and medical h i s t o r i e s ) may not be a v a i l a b l e at the e c o l o g i c l e v e l , and the r e s u l t s of e c o l o g i c analyses are s u b j e c t to c e r t a i n l i m i t a t i o n s not a p p l i c a b l e to many other study d e s i g n s . I n s o f a r as t h i s p a r t i c u l a r study i s concerned, an e c o l o g i c approach was adopted from n e c e s s i t y : f i e l d w o r k was not p o s s i b l e , yet much d i s t r i c t - w i s e data were a v a i l a b l e from government censuses and other p u b l i c a t i o n s . The main l i m i t a t i o n of e c o l o g i c a n a l y s i s i s the problem of e c o l o g i c a l c o r r e l a t i o n . 1 6 1 T h i s r e s u l t s "from making a c a u s a l i n f e r e n c e about i n d i v i d u a l phenomena on the b a s i s of o b s e r v a t i o n s of g r o u p s " . 1 6 2 For i n s t a n c e , i f d i s t r i c t s with high Muslim p o p u l a t i o n s show high f e r t i l i t y , i t cannot n e c e s s a r i l y be concluded that Muslims have higher f e r t i l i t y r a t e s than non-Muslims. S t a t i s t i c a l r e s u l t s based on d i s a g g r e g a t e data g e n e r a l l y d i f f e r from r e s u l t s which are based 1 6 1 T h i s phenomena i s r e f e r r e d to as e c o l o g i c a l f a l l i c y i n some t e x t s . 1 6 2 Hal Morgenstern, Op. C i t . , p.1339 73 on aggregate d a t a . L e v e l s of c o r r e l a t i o n w i l l u s u a l l y be higher when aggregate f i g u r e s are used, due to the phenomenon! of ' c r o s s - l e v e l b i a s ' . 1 6 3 There are s e v e r a l ways to d e a l with e c o l o g i c a l c o r r e l a t i o n . One method suggested by Morgenstern i s to use r e g r e s s i o n r a t h e r than simple c o r r e l a t i o n : " i n the s i t u a t i o n where groups tend to be homogeneous with respect to one of the independent v a r i a b l e s , e c o l o g i c r e g r e s s i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s , but not e c o l o g i c c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s , w i l l r e s u l t i n unbiased e s t i m a t e s of t h e i r corresponding i n d i v i d u a l measures". 1 6" Another way i s to v e r i f y r e s u l t s o b tained i n e c o l o g i c s t u d i e s by comparing them with f i n d i n g s from s t u d i e s which use the i n d i v i d u a l as the u n i t of a n a l y s i s . 1 6 5 Both of the above mentioned methods of d e a l i n g with e c o l o g i c a l c o r r e l a t i o n are employed i n t h i s study. Although some s t a t i s t i c a l i n d i c a t o r s are s e l e c t e d on the b a s i s of c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s , the bulk of a n a l y s i s i s based on r e s u l t s o b tained from r e g r e s s i o n e quations. There are s e v e r a l s t u d i e s which use the i n d i v i d u a l as the u n i t of a n a l y s i s , on the b a s i s of which i t i s p o s s i b l e to c o r r o b o r a t e f i n d i n g s based on d i s t r i c t d a t a. Abayaratne and Jayawardene's study of 1 6 3 I b i d . , pp.1339-1340 1 6 4 I b i d . , p.1342 1 6 5 I b i d . , p.1342 74 f e r t i l i t y t rends i n S r i Lanka i n c o r p o r a t e s an e c o l o g i c a l approach (Part I) as w e l l as a case study approach (Part I I ) . 1 6 6 Part II i s of p a r t i c u l a r i n t e r e s t , both f o r i t s content as w e l l as i t s m e t h o d o l o g y : 1 6 7 In the choice of the v i l l a g e r s to be s t u d i e d , each demographic area has been d i v i d e d i n t o s t r a t a on the b a s i s of t h e i r e t h n o - r e l i g i o u s or socio-economic c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s and the v i l l a g e s have been chosen from s t r a t a so that the d i f f e r e n t groups would f i n d r e p r e s e n t a t i o n i n the sample. The method was e s s e n t i a l l y one of case study and consequently the p o s s i b i l i t y e x i s t s that the v i l l a g e s chosen and s t u d i e d would not present a sample that was s t a t i s t i c a l l y r e p r e s e n t a t i v e of the demographic area i n t o which they f e l l . As has been alr e a d y p o i n t e d out, i n the ch o i c e of the sample the main c o n s i d e r a t i o n was not that the v i l l a g e s s t u d i e d should c o n s t i t u t e a s t a t i s t i c a l l y r e p r e s e n t a t i v e sample of the demographic area but that a l l groups i n a demographic area should f i n d adequate r e p r e s e n t a t i o n i n the sample so that f e r t i l i t y s i m i l a r i t i e s and d i s s i m i l a r i t i e s i n the d i f f e r e n t groups c o u l d be s t u d i e d . Abhayaratne and Jayawardene's f i n d i n g s with re s p e c t to the f e r t i l i t y p a t t e r n s of i n d i v i d u a l members i n d i f f e r e n t s o c i o - economic and e t h n o - r e l i g i o u s groups are c o n s i s t e n t with d i s t r i c t p a t t e r n s i l l u s t r a t e d i n the decomposition t a b l e . S i m i l a r l y , f i n d i n g s in the World F e r t i l i t y Survey are a l s o based on a case study approach, and h e l p to v e r i f y r e s u l t s from 1 6 6 Abhayaratne, O.E.R., and Jayawardene, C.H.S., F e r t i l i t y Trends i n Ceylon, The Colombo Apo t h e c a r i e s ' Co., L t d . , Colombo, 1967 1 6 7 I b i d . , p.186 75 my own e c o l o g i c a l a n a l y s i s . 1 6 8 5. S t a t i s t i c a l Model Employed S t a t i s t i c a l i n f o r m a t i o n necessary for path a n a l y s i s has been obtained through the use of the f o l l o w i n g model, which i s based on the path diagram presented i n chapter I I : 1 6 9 GFR = f[IMR,FLIT,I fCF,ASSH,AM] IMR = f [ F L I T , I ] AM = f[FLIT,CF] FLIT = f [ C F , I ] I = f[CF,ASSH,PY,MI] PY = f[ASSH,MI,T] T = f[ASSH,MI] ASSH = f [ M I ] . The above model comprises seven r e g r e s s i o n equations. Equation 1 i n d i c a t e s that general f e r t i l i t y r a t e (GFR) i s a f u n c t i o n of i n f a n t m o r t a l i t y r a t e (IMR), female l i t e r a c y ( F L I T ) , income ( I ) , c u l t u r a l f a c t o r s (CF), average s i z e of smal l h o l d i n g s (ASSH), and age of females at marriage (AM). Equations 2 and 3 are s e l f explanatory. Equation 4 i n d i c a t e s t h a t income i s a f u n c t i o n of c u l t u r a l f a c t o r s , average s i z e of smal l h o l d i n g s , paddy y i e l d (PY), and major i r r i g a t i o n (MI). 1 6 8 Department of Census and S t a t i s t i c s , "World F e r t i l i t y Survey, S r i Lanka, 1975, F i r s t Report", M i n i s t r y of Plan Implementation, Colombo, 1978 1 6 9 See Diagram 11. 76 Equation 5 i n d i c a t e s that paddy y i e l d i s a f u n c t i o n of average s i z e of small h o l d i n g s , major i r r i g a t i o n , and t r a n s p l a n t i n g ( T ) . Equations 6 and 7 are s e l f e x p l a n a t o r y . Measure of F e r t i l i t y - the dependent v a r i a b l e General f e r t i l i t y r a t e (GFR) i s employed as a measure of f e r t i l i t y i n t h i s study. The g e n e r a l f e r t i l i t y r a t e i s c a l c u l a t e d by d i v i d i n g the annual number of l i v e b i r t h s i n each d i s t r i c t by the number of women aged from 15 to 44 years i n a given y e a r . 1 7 0 T h i s measure i s s u p e r i o r to crude b i r t h r a t e because f e r t i l i t y i s d e f i n e d i n terms of women of c h i l d b e a r i n g age r a t h e r than i n terms of the ge n e r a l p o p u l a t i o n . The number of women of c h i l d b e a r i n g age i n each d i s t r i c t was obtained from the 1971 Census of P o p u l a t i o n . 1 7 1 These data are probably q u i t e r e l i a b l e , s i n c e i t i s re p o r t e d that the r e g i s t r a t i o n of b i r t h s was 98.7% complete by 1 9 6 7 . 1 7 2 1 7 0 Robert Repetto, Economic E q u a l i t y and F e r t i l i t y i n Developing C o u n t r i e s , Resources f o r the Future, Inc., Washington, 1979, p.31 1 7 1 Table S i x , P o p u l a t i o n by Sex and Five-Year age groups f o r D i s t r i c t s by Urban and Rur a l Areas, Census of P o p u l a t i o n , 1971 1 7 2 I b i d . , p.99 77 Measures of e x p l a n a t o r y v a r i a b l e s 1 7 3 Reasons f o r s e l e c t i n g i n f a n t m o r t a l i t y over other m o r t a l i t y i n d i c a t o r s have a l r e a d y been d i s c u s s e d . I n f a n t m o r t a l i t y r a t e s f o r i n d i v i d u a l d i s t r i c t s ; s p e c i f i c a l l y , the number of i n f a n t deaths per 1000 l i v e b i r t h s i n 1971, were a l s o obtained from the 1971 GOSL D i s t r i c t C e n s u s e s . 1 7 " The percentage of women c u r r e n t l y married aged 15 to 19 was used as a measure f o r age of females at marriage. These data were not a v a i l a b l e i n the Census of P o p u l a t i o n , but are provided by D a l l a s F e r n a n d o . 1 7 5 These data were no doubt obtained d i r e c t l y from the Department of Census and S t a t i s t i c s and are reasonably a c c u r a t e . Yotopoulos p o i n t s out t h a t , "as a byproduct of development, l i t e r a c y r a t e s and e d u c a t i o n a l l e v e l s are l i k e l y to i n c r e a s e f o r both males and females", but notes that "the i n c r e a s e i n female education i s more l i k e l y to a f f e c t f e r t i l i t y r a t e s " . 1 7 6 Female l i t e r a c y was s e l e c t e d f o r use i n the model, 1 7 3 r p n e term e x p l a n a t o r y v a r i a b l e s i s used r a t h e r than the term independent v a r i a b l e s i n order to a v o i d c o n f u s i o n . T e c h n i c a l l y speaking, each i n d i v i d u a l equation i n the s t a t i s t i c a l model employed has one dependent v a r i a b l e and s e v e r a l independent v a r i a b l e s . Viewed i n t h i s manner, many v a r i a b l e s which are d e p i c t e d as i n t e r m e d i a t e between major i r r i g a t i o n and f e r t i l i t y i n Diagram II and Diagram I I I are both independent and dependent, depending upon which equation one i s l o o k i n g a t . 1 7 4 Census of p o p u l a t i o n , 1971, General Report 1 7 5 D a l l a s F.S. Fernando, " N u p t i a l i t y , Education, I n f a n t M o r t a l i t y and F e r t i l i t y i n S r i Lanka", J o u r n a l of B i o s o c i a l S cience, No.11, 1977 1 7 6 Pan Yotopoulos, Op. C i t . , p.33 78 rather than male l i t e r a c y , on the b a s i s of c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s . The c o r r e l a t i o n between female l i t e r a c y and g e n e r a l f e r t i l i t y r a t e , and male l i t e r a c y and g e n e r a l f e r t i l i t y r a t e , i s -.81 and -.78 r e s p e c t i v e l y . Another reason f o r s e l e c t i n g female l i t e r a c y i n s t e a d of male l i t e r a c y was that female l i t e r a c y was more s t r o n g l y c o r r e l a t e d with independent v a r i a b l e s i n equation 2. For i n s t a n c e , the c o r r e l a t i o n between female l i t e r a c y and i n f a n t m o r t a l i t y i s -.74, while the c o r r e l a t i o n between male l i t e r a c y and i n f a n t m o r t a l i t y i s -.68. Female l i t e r a c y i s the number of females aged ten years or over who c o u l d read and w r i t e a short statement on everyday l i f e . While no o b j e c t i v e t e s t was given i n order to determine l i t e r a c y , and i t i s p o s s i b l e that some respondents may have exaggerated t h e i r a b i l i t i e s to enumerators, these data are c o n s i d e r e d by the GOSL Department of Census and S t a t i s t i c s to be reasonably a c c u r a t e . 1 7 7 Female l i t e r a c y i s employed i n t h i s study, r a t h e r than any of a number of p o s s i b l e measures of e d u c a t i o n a l attainment, p r i m a r i l y f o r t h e o r e t i c a l reasons. For i n s t a n c e , while i t i s c l e a r t h a t the best way to capture the e f f e c t of marriage d e f e r r a l on f e r t i l i t y would be to employ an i n d i c a t o r such as number of school-aged females 15 to 19 i n s c h o o l , the use of t h i s i n d i c a t o r would s i g n i f i c a n t l y narrow the scope of a n a l y s i s . GFR i s conceived to be a a f u n c t i o n of m a r i t a l 1 7 7 For a more d e t a i l e d comment on t h i s p a r t i c u l a r data, see Census of P o p u l a t i o n General Report, pp.111-113. 79 f e r t i l i t y as w e l l as age at marriage, and i t i s very l i k e l y that anyone who has achieved b a s i c l i t e r a c y can understand v a r i o u s advertisements and/or w r i t t e n i n f o r m a t i o n p e r t a i n i n g to the use of b i r t h c o n t r o l . Furthermore, while i t i s c l e a r that higher education i s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h higher l e v e l s of h e a l t h care, i t i s a n t i c i p a t e d that between the l i t e r a t e and the i l l i t e r a t e , there i s a broad d i v i s i o n i n terms of h e a l t h c a r e . In order to o b t a i n a measure f o r income, three i n d i c a t o r s were t e s t e d ; income per c a p i t a , % t o t a l income going to the bottom two q u i n t i l e s of the p o p u l a t i o n , and income per c a p i t a f o r the bottom two q u i n t i l e s . Income per c a p i t a i s commonly used as a measure f o r income i n c r o s s - n a t i o n a l s t u d i e s . The other income i n d i c a t o r s were t e s t e d s i n c e there i s some evidence that the income of the poor i s more c l o s e l y a s s o c i a t e d with f e r t i l i t y than the income of the t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n : 1 7 8 By now i t i s c l e a r t h a t both l e v e l s and r a t e s of growth i n economics have r e l a t i v e l y l i t t l e a s s o c i a t i o n with l e v e l s or r a t e s of change i n f e r t i l i t y . Some re s e a r c h e r s have suggested that the l a c k of a s s o c i a t i o n i s due to the f a c t that income changes f o r the poor m a j o r i t y , who bear the l a r g e m a j o r i t y of c h i l d r e n , are muffled out of i n n a t i o n a l aggregates by income changes for the m i n o r i t y of the p o p u l a t i o n with the m a j o r i t y of purchasing power. C o r r e l a t i o n s between changes i n income l e v e l s of the poorest 40 per cent of a p o p u l a t i o n and n a t i o n a l f e r t i l i t y are re a s o n a b l y c l o s e . The l e v e l of c o r r e l a t i o n between income per c a p i t a of the 1 7 8 Nick E b e r s t a d t , Op. C i t . 80 bottom two d e c i l e s and g e n e r a l f e r t i l i t y r a t e i s +.18, and the c o r r e l a t i o n between income per c a p i t a and general f e r t i l i t y r a t e and % income going to the bottom two q u i n t i l e s and general f e r t i l i t y i s +.11 and +.15 r e s p e c t i v e l y . These data are a v a i l a b l e f o r i n d i v i d u a l d i s t r i c t s from the C e n t r a l Bank of S r i L a n k a . 1 7 9 U n f o r t u n a t e l y , these data were compiled over a two- month p e r i o d and may c o n t a i n d i s t o r t i o n s due to the f a c t that farm incomes f l u c t u a t e s e a s o n a l l y . 1 8 0 Furthermore, there i s no way of knowing the extent to which these data represent farm incomes. As b e t t e r than 50% of the p o p u l a t i o n employed i n the dry zone d e r i v e s i t s income from a g r i c u l t u r e , i t i s probably l i k e l y that the Bank of S r i Lanka data r e f l e c t s farm incomes to some extent, but t h i s i s not c e r t a i n . I t i s important to note that these data provide a measure of gross incomes r a t h e r than net incomes. F i e l d s t u d i e s i n d i c a t e that y i e l d i s more c l o s e l y r e l a t e d to gross income than net i n c o m e . 1 8 1 Even i f a hi g h c o r r e l a t i o n i s obtained, i t i s l i k e l y that the r e l a t i o n s h i p 1 7 9 Unpublished data o b t a i n e d from the C e n t r a l Bank of S r i Lanka by Dr. B a r r i e M. Morrison 1 8 0 I f a l l d i s t r i c t s had the same farm p o p u l a t i o n , t h i s might not pose a problem. However, the p o p u l a t i o n which i s employed in a g r i c u l t u r e v a r i e s from a low of 33% i n J a f f n a to a high of 78% i n Polonnaruwa. 1 8 1 For i n s t a n c e , i n Anuradhapura, o p e r a t o r s under minor schemes obtained higher net income than farmers under major schemes, even though farmers under major schemes had higher y i e l d s and higher gross income. T h i s i s because farmers under minor schemes i n c u r r e d l e s s expenses. See ARTI, Op. C i t . , p.92. 81 between a g r i c u l t u r a l development and net d i s p o s a b l e income i s not so strong as the data might suggest. P a r t i c u l a r l y where equation 4 i s concerned, s t a t i s t i c a l r e s u l t s based upon the income data must be accepted with c o n s i d e r a b l e c a u t i o n . There are s e v e r a l ways in which c u l t u r a l f a c t o r s might i n f l u e n c e f e r t i l i t y , and s i x d i f f e r e n t i n d i c a t o r s were t e s t e d : %Tamil, %Moor, % S i n h a l e s e , %Hindu, %Muslim, and %Buddhist. While each e t h n i c group showed a strong c o r r e l a t i o n with i t s corresponding r e l i g i o n , only two of the above s i x i n d i c a t o r s were h i g h l y c o r r e l a t e d with g e n e r a l f e r t i l i t y r a t e . 1 8 2 The c o r r e l a t i o n between %Muslim and g e n e r a l f e r t i l i t y r a t e i s +.6541, and the c o r r e l a t i o n between %Moor and general f e r t i l i t y r a t e i s +.6530. 1 8 3 In order to measure c u l t u r a l f a c t o r s , % Muslim i s used. In the d i s t r i c t s under study, Muslims account fo r j u s t under 16% of the t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n . Hindus and Buddhists comprise an a d d i t i o n a l 74% of the p o p u l a t i o n , and the remaining 10% i s predominantly C h r i s t i a n . These data are a v a i l a b l e from the Department of Census and S t a t i s t i c s , and are w e l l r e p o r t e d . 1 8 4 1 8 2 Tamils are almost i n v a r i a b l y Hindus, S i n h a l e s e are almost i n v a r i a b l y Buddhists, and Moors are almost i n v a r i a b l y Muslims. 1 8 3 C o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s f o r the other i n d i c a t o r s are p r o v i d e d i n Table 11. 1 8 4 S t a t i s t i c a l A b s t r a c t of S r i Lanka, 1973 Table 21, Percentage D i s t r i b u t i o n of the P o p u l a t i o n by D i s t r i c t and R e l i g i o n - Census 1971, Department of Census and S t a t i s t i c s , Colombo, 1975, p.38 + Table f o r E t h n i c Comp. 82 Average s i z e of small h o l d i n g s (ASSH) i s used as a measure f o r the s i z e d i s t r i b u t i o n of a g r i c u l t u r a l h o l d i n g s w i t h i n the paddy s e c t o r . Average s i z e of small h o l d i n g s i s used ra t h e r than average s i z e of h o l d i n g s , s i n c e paddy i s a small h o l d e r s crop. A l l h o l d i n g s l e s s than 50 acres were c l a s s i f i e d as small h o l d i n g s , a f i g u r e which i n c l u d e s l a r g e r paddy h o l d i n g s found i n some d i s t r i c t s but excludes most commercial e s t a t e s . The average s i z e of small h o l d i n g s ranged from 1.3 acre s to 5.8 acr e s i n the d i s t r i c t s under study. The percentage of paddy t r a n s p l a n t e d i n each d i s t r i c t , and the percentage of major i r r i g a t i o n i n each d i s t r i c t , are a v a i l a b l e from the S t a t i s t i c a l A b s t r a c t f o r S r i L a n k a . 1 8 5 las S e e T a b l e 67, 'Paddy: C u l t i v a t i o n D e t a i l s - Maha 1970-71' and Table 63, 'Paddy: Extent C u l t i v a t e d and Y i e l d - Maha 1970- 71'. A g r i c u l t u r a l data may be s u b j e c t to r e p o r t i n g e r r o r , although data on water supply c o n d i t i o n s i s probably f a i r l y a c c u r a t e . 83 Table 12: C o r r e l a t i o n s Between A l t e r n a t i v e I n d i c a t o r s and General F e r t i l i t y Rate V a r i a b l e I n d i c a t o r s C o r r e l a t i o n Coef f i c i e n t M o r t a l i t y CDR +.1383 I MR +.6167 L i t e r a c y FLIT -.8084 MLIT -.7822 Income I/capi ta +.1108 I / c a p i t a +.1845 (lower 2 d e c i l e s ) % T o t a l I + . 1485 (to lower 2 d e c i l e s ) C u l t u r e % Moor +.6530 % Muslim +.6541 % Tamil +.0898 % Hindu +.0712 % S i n h a l e s e -.3300 % Buddhist -.2816 84 Chapter IV 1 . I n t r o d u c t i o n The primary o b j e c t i v e of t h i s study i s to determine whether a g r i c u l t u r a l development p r o v i d e s some e x p l a n a t i o n f o r f e r t i l i t y d i f f e r e n t i a l s i n the dry zone of S r i Lanka in 1971. Diagram I I , which i s based on Yotopoulos' scheme f o r economic and demographic i n t e r a c t i o n s , p r o v i d e s a u s e f u l frame of a n a l y s i s s i n c e i t envisages p o s s i b l e l i n k a g e s between a g r i c u l t u r a l development, v a r i o u s economic and s o c i a l i n d i c a t o r s , and f e r t i l i t y . The r e l a t i v e s t r e n g t h of d i f f e r e n t hypotheses u n d e r l y i n g diagram II were t e s t e d , using path a n a l y s i s as d e s c r i b e d i n chapter I I I . I t i s the purpose of chapter IV to present the s t a t i s t i c a l f i n d i n g s o b t a i n e d , and to provide an a n a l y s i s . The a n a l y s i s i s not based s o l e l y on the numerical r e s u l t s obtained, which are based on aggregate data r e p r e s e n t i n g the twelve dry zone d i s t r i c t s , but takes i n t o account q u a n t i t a t i v e and q u a l i t a t i v e i n f o r m a t i o n a v a i l a b l e from case s t u d i e s . Wider i m p l i c a t i o n s of the f i n d i n g s are presented in a separate s e c t i o n , which appears at the end of t h i s c hapter. 2. S t a t i s t i c a l R e s u l t s and C o n c l u s i o n s S t a t i s t i c a l r e s u l t s o b t a i n e d from the r e g r e s s i o n equations presented i n the p r e v i o u s chapter i n c l u d e d path c o e f f i c i e n t s {beta values) r e p r e s e n t i n g the ' d i r e c t c a u s a l ' e f f e c t s i n model 1 . 1 8 6 These c o e f f i c i e n t s are represented the f o l l o w i n g path diagram: 1 8 6 See Chapter I I I . 86 Diagram III Path Diagram D e p i c t i n g the R e l a t i v e Strength of R e l a t i o n s h i p s Among D i f f e r e n t V a r i a b l e s and F e r t i l i t y 3 31 a < a h - O •a 3 n> 3 3 (0 Q. < 01 •1 01 a* ra cn o m 3 O (N 1 Oi T3 3" < 01 01 87 In order to c a l c u l a t e the ' i n d i r e c t c a u s a l ' e f f e c t s between v a r i a b l e s r e presented i n path diagram I, and to d i s c r i m i n a t e between c a u s a l and non-causal e f f e c t s , the f o l l o w i n g decomposition t a b l e was c o n s t r u c t e d f o l l o w i n g procedures o u t l i n e d i n the SPSS m a n u a l : 1 8 7 Table 13: General Decomposition Table f o r Path Model I B i v a r i a t e T o t a l Causal Non -Causal R e l a t i o n s h i p Covariance D i r e c t Indi r e c t T o t a l (E) (A) (B) ( c ) (D) (B+C) (A-D) GFR,IMR .62 .03 - .03 .59 GFR,FLIT -.81 -.44 - . 1 9 -.63 -.17 GFR, I .18 .06 -.10 -.04 .23 GFR,M .65 .04 .26 .30 .35 GFR,ASSH .30 .24 -.02 .23 .07 GFR,AM .91 .52 - .52 .39 IMR,FLIT -.74 -.73 - . -.73 -.01 IMR, I -.19 -.08 -.11 -.19 .01 AM,FLIT -.66 -.33 - -.33 -.33 AM,M .77 .59 .18 .77 .00 FLIT,M -.56 -.56 .00 -.56 .00 FLIT,I .14 .16 - .16 -.02 I ,M -.03 .03 - .03 .00 I ,MI .47 . 1 1 .35 .46 .01 I ,PY .61 .46 - .46 .15 I,ASSH .32 .22 .18 .40 -.08 PY,T .64 .30 -• .30 .34 PY,MI .83 .77 .06 .83 .00 PY,ASSH .26 .30 .09 .39 -.13 T,ASSH .25 .31 - .31 -.05 T,MI .34 .39 -.05 .34 .00 ASSH,WSC -.15 -.15 — -.15 .00 I t i s c l e a r from column B of the above t a b l e t h at the best p r e d i c t o r of ge n e r a l f e r t i l i t y r a t e i s %married females 1 8 7 Norman Nie, e t . a l . , SPSS, Second E d i t i o n , McGraw-Hill, New York, 1975, pp.287-289 88 aged 15-19 years (+.52). T h i s f i n d i n g supports the hypothesis that high age at marriage i n f l u e n c e s f e r t i l i t y because i t reduces exposure to sexual i n t e r c o u r s e and e f f e c t i v e l y shortens the number of c h i l d b e a r i n g years which a woman has. The h y p o t h e s i s appears to have c o n s i d e r a b l e explanatory power i n s o f a r as the e x p l a n a t i o n of 1971 f e r t i l i t y d i f f e r e n t i a l s i n the dry zone i s concerned. F i n d i n g s i n the World F e r t i l i t y Survey which i n d i c a t e that r i s i n g age of marriage was the main cause of f e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e i n S r i Lanka during the p e r i o d from 1960 to 1970 support t h i s c o n c l u s i o n . 1 8 8 The next best p r e d i c t o r of general f e r t i l i t y r a t e i s female l i t e r a c y (-.44). As mentioned p r e v i o u s l y , female l i t e r a c y i s employed as an i n d i c a t o r r a t h e r than some measure of female education i n order to broaden the scope of a n a l y s i s . The use of t h i s i n d i c a t o r has one major drawback, i n that i t i s not p o s s i b l e to d i s c r i m i n a t e the mechanism(s) which account f o r many of the s t a t i s t i c a l a s s o c i a t i o n s found. For i n s t a n c e , the i n d i c a t o r female l i t e r a c y takes i n t o account a l l of the female p o p u l a t i o n with formal e d u c a t i o n . I t i s t h e r e f o r e not p o s s i b l e , on the b a s i s of the s t a t i s t i c a l r e s u l t s obtained, to come to p r e c i s e c o n c l u s i o n s with r e s p e c t to such t h i n g s as whether or not the r e l a t i o n between female l i t e r a c y and female age at marriage i s p r i m a r i l y due to the r e l a t i o n between higher education and marriage postponement. Such e x t r a p o l a t i o n s must 1 8 8 See the d i s c u s s i o n on age and marriage and f e r t i l i t y i n Chapter II of t h i s t h e s i s . 89 be made on the b a s i s of f i n d i n g s i n other s t u d i e s and v a r i o u s t h e o r e t i c a l c o n s i d e r a t i o n s , and cannot be concluded d i r e c t l y from the s t a t i s t i c a l r e s u l t s . I t was suggested i n chapter I I that h i g h female l i t e r a c y should l e a d to low f e r t i l i t y due to a number of mechanisms. The above s t a t i s t i c a l r e s u l t lends support to s e v e r a l of the hypotheses presented i n chapter I I : 1) educated women have lower f e r t i l i t y because women g e n e r a l l y d e s i r e l e s s c h i l d r e n than men, and as women become more h i g h l y educated t h e i r c o n t r o l over f a m i l y p l a n n i n g d e c i s i o n s i n c r e a s e s ; 2) t r a d i t i o n a l a t t i t u d e s toward f a m i l y s i z e and fa m i l y p l a n n i n g change as l e v e l s of education i n c r e a s e , and 3) higher education o f t e n f a c i l i t a t e s i n c r e a s e d knowledge of b i r t h c o n t r o l t e c h n i q u e s . 1 8 9 T h i s c o n c l u s i o n i s c o n s i s t e n t with Mary Bishop's evidence that feminine s e l f - d e t e r m i n a t i o n had become a r e a l f o r c e i n m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y d e c i s i o n s i n S r i Lanka by 1970. Abayaratne and Jayawardene's evidence that high education i n S r i Lanka leads to i n c r e a s e d a s p i r a t i o n s f o r s o c i a l m o b i l i t y and a d e s i r e f o r small f a m i l i e s p r o v i d e s another p o s s i b l e reason f o r the strong s t a t i s t i c a l r e l a t i o n between female l i t e r a c y and f e r t i l i t y . I t i s c l e a r from the evidence presented i n the d i s c u s s i o n on c o n t r a c e p t i o n and f e r t i l i t y that the use of f a m i l y p l a n n i n g methods by S r i Lankan women has g r e a t l y i n c r e a s e d s i n c e the 1950's, and that t h i s may prov i d e d one of the best e x p l a n a t i o n s f o r the strong d i r e c t e f f e c t between 1 8 9 See d i s c u s s i o n on the r e l a t i o n between education and f e r t i l i t y i n chapter I I . 90 female l i t e r a c y and f e r t i l i t y . The r e s u l t s r e p o r t e d i n the p r e v i o u s two paragraphs i n d i c a t e t h a t f e r t i l i t y i s d i r e c t l y i n f l u e n c e d more by age of marriage than female l i t e r a c y . However, as i s c l e a r from column D, when both d i r e c t and i n d i r e c t e f f e c t s are taken i n t o c o n s i d e r a t i o n female l i t e r a c y has a g r e a t e r i n f l u e n c e on general f e r t i l i t y r a t e (-.63) than %married females aged 15-19 (+.52). T h i s i s due p r i m a r i l y to the e f f e c t of female l i t e r a c y on %married females aged 15-19 (-.33). Given that p r i o r to 1971 i n S r i Lanka, i n c r e a s e d age at marriage was almost e n t i r e l y due to an i n c r e a s e i n the number of females o b t a i n i n g higher e d u c a t i o n , t h i s f i n d i n g i s not s u r p r i s i n g . 1 9 0 I t was h y p o t h e s i z e d i n chapter II t h a t high female l i t e r a c y should be a s s o c i a t e d with low f e r t i l i t y due to a l i n k between female l i t e r a c y and i n f a n t m o r t a l i t y . The s t a t i s t i c a l r e s u l t s o b t a i n e d i n d i c a t e t h a t the r e l a t i o n s h i p between female l i t e r a c y and i n f a n t m o r t a l i t y i s r e l a t i v e l y s trong (-.73), and p r o v i d e support f o r the h y p o t h e s i s that q u a l i t y of c h i l d c a r e i s p o s i t i v e l y r e l a t e d w i t h h i g h female l i t e r a c y . The extent to which l i t e r a c y , b r e a s t f e e d i n g , and i n f a n t m o r t a l i t y are r e l a t e d cannot be determined on the b a s i s of these r e s u l t s . I t must be concluded however, t h a t even though h i g h female l i t e r a c y i s a s s o c i a t e d with high l e v e l s of c h i l d care and low i n f a n t m o r t a l i t y , t h i s does not have an a p p r e c i a b l e e f f e c t on 1 9 0 See the d i s c u s s i o n on education and f e r t i l i t y i n chapter I I . 91 f e r t i l i t y . The r e l a t i o n s h i p between i n f a n t m o r t a l i t y and gener a l f e r t i l i t y r a t e proved to be very weak (+.03). I t i s evident that the c h i l d - s u r v i v a l and ch i l d - r e p l a c e m e n t hypotheses do not provide much e x p l a n a t i o n f o r f e r t i l i t y d i f f e r e n t i a l s i n t h i s p a r t i c u l a r case. E v i d e n t l y i n f a n t m o r t a l i t y has f a l l e n below some c r i t i c a l l e v e l p r i o r to 1971, and has ceased to be a major cause of high f e r t i l i t y i n the dry zone. I t i s important to note that i n terms of t o t a l c a u s a l e f f e c t , %Muslim has the t h i r d s t r o n g e s t i n f l u e n c e on ge n e r a l f e r t i l i t y r a t e (+.30). While %Muslim does not have a s t r o n g d i r e c t e f f e c t on ge n e r a l f e r t i l i t y r a t e (+.04), i t s i n d i r e c t e f f e c t s are r e l a t i v e l y strong (+.26). T h i s i s p r i m a r i l y due to the e f f e c t of %Muslim on %married females aged 15-19 and female l i t e r a c y . The t o t a l c a u s a l e f f e c t of %Muslim on these i n d i c a t o r s i s +.77 and -.56 r e s p e c t i v e l y . These f i n d i n g s support the h y p o t h e s i s t h a t l e v e l s of s c h o o l i n g are r e l a t i v e l y low f o r Muslim g i r l s , and that t h i s i s l i k e l y due to v a r i o u s socio-economic and r e l i g i o u s f a c t o r s p e c u l i a r to the Muslim community. 1 9 1 The net r e s u l t i s that Muslim women tend to marry e a r l i e r than women from other r e l i g i o u s c o m m u n i t i e s . 1 9 2 T h i s , probably more than any other f a c t o r , accounts f o r the h i g h 1 9 1 See d i s c u s s i o n on c u l t u r a l f a c t o r s and f e r t i l i t y i n chapter I I . 1 9 2 Department of Census and S t a t i s t i c s , 1978, Op. C i t . , p.79 92 l e v e l s of f e r t i l i t y i n d i s t r i c t s with l a r g e Muslim p o p u l a t i o n s : 1 9 3 D i f f e r e n t i a l s i n f e r t i l i t y are most a f f e c t e d by d i f f e r e n t i a l s i n age at marriage. For example, f e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e s with i n c r e a s i n g l e v e l s of education, almost e n t i r e l y because be t t e r - e d u c a t e d women marry l a t e r . The high f e r t i l i t y of the Muslims i s due mainly to t h e i r e a r l y age at marriage... The hypothesis that c u l t u r e i n f l u e n c e s f e r t i l i t y by v i r t u e of i t s e f f e c t on income proved to be weak, si n c e the t o t a l e f f e c t of c u l t u r e on income was n e g l i g i b l e (+.03), and because the t o t a l e f f e c t of income on f e r t i l i t y was a l s o n e g l i g i b l e (- . 04). I t i s evident from the path diagram as w e l l as from the general decomposition t a b l e that those hypotheses concerning the r e l a t i o n s h i p between water supply c o n d i t i o n s , farm management p r a c t i c e s and y i e l d are probably v a l i d . There i s a l s o some support f o r the hypothesis that paddy y i e l d might be p o s i t i v e l y a s s o c i a t e d with income, s i n c e the d i r e c t e f f e c t of paddy y i e l d on income i s +.46. The t o t a l c a u s a l e f f e c t of water supply c o n d i t i o n s on income i s a l s o +.46, l a r g e l y due to the e f f e c t s of water supply c o n d i t i o n s on t r a n s p l a n t i n g and y i e l d . The i n f o r m a t i o n p r o v i d e d i n the decomposition t a b l e i n d i c a t e s that there i s l i t t l e support f o r any of the 1 9 3 I b i d . , p.154 93 hypotheses l i n k i n g a g r i c u l t u r a l development with f e r t i l i t y , p a r t i c u l a r l y those hypotheses which suggest that a g r i c u l t u r a l development might i n f l u e n c e f e r t i l i t y by v i r t u e of i t s e f f e c t s on income. While there i s some evidence that a g r i c u l t u r a l development i s a s s o c i a t e d with h i g h income, there i s nothing to suggest that income has much i n f l u e n c e on f e r t i l i t y e i t h e r d i r e c t l y or i n d i r e c t l y . The t o t a l e f f e c t of major i r r i g a t i o n on paddy y i e l d i s very strong (+.83), while the t o t a l e f f e c t of major i r r i g a t i o n on income i s somewhat weaker (+.46). The r e l a t i o n between major i r r i g a t i o n and income i s due almost s o l e l y to the d i r e c t e f f e c t of paddy y i e l d on income (+.46). The r e l a t i o n between high income and female l i t e r a c y was p o s i t i v e , as hypothesized, but r e l a t i v e l y weak (+.16), and the t o t a l c a u s a l e f f e c t of income on g e n e r a l f e r t i l i t y r a t e i s only -.04. I t i s of i n t e r e s t t h a t the t o t a l e f f e c t of female l i t e r a c y on i n f a n t m o r t a l i t y (-.73) proved to be gr e a t e r than the t o t a l e f f e c t of income on i n f a n t m o r t a l i t y (-.19). The e f f e c t of high income on i n f a n t m o r t a l i t y might be gr e a t e r i f i t were not f o r the e x i s t e n c e of the Government food s u b s i d i e s , which d i m i n i s h the importance of income to n u t r i t i o n . I t has been estimated t h a t food s u b s i d i e s i n c r e a s e the r e a l income of poor f a m i l i e s i n S r i Lanka by about 2 0 % . 1 9 4 Even so, i t i s u n l i k e l y that income would be a b e t t e r p r e d i c t o r of i n f a n t m o r t a l i t y than female l i t e r a c y , given the r e s u l t s obtained i n 1 9 4 Isenman, Op. C i t . , p.240 94 other s t u d i e s : 1 9 5 Many observers argue, i n f a c t , that ignorance i s a more deadly foe of young c h i l d r e n than poverty i s - though the two so o f t e n go together that i t i s d i f f i c u l t to separate t h e i r e f f e c t s . But the evidence seems to support t h e i r c o n t e n t i o n . . . In S r i Lanka, more than 44 percent of the a d u l t women have completed primary s c h o o l , and v i r t u a l l y everyone i n the younger age-groups l e a r n s at l e a s t to read and w r i t e . In P a k i s t a n and Bangladesh i n the mid- s e v e n t i e s , by c o n t r a s t , only about 10 percent of the g i r l s f i n i s h e d primary s c h o o l . The d i f f e r e n c e i s r e f l e c t e d i n t h e i r i n f a n t m o r t a l i t y r a t e s of 142 and 139 r e s p e c t i v e l y , compared with S r i Lanka's of 42. On the other s i d e of the c o i n are wealthy c o u n t r i e s such as L i b y a and Gabon where i l l i t e r a c y i s s t i l l widespread and i n f a n t m o r t a l i t y , not s u r p r i s i n g l y , remains h i g h . There i s some support f o r the hypothesis t h a t f e r t i l i t y i n the dry zone i s at l e a s t p a r t l y a f u n c t i o n of farm s i z e . 1 9 6 The d i r e c t c a u s a l e f f e c t of s i z e of a g r i c u l t u r a l h o l d i n g s on f e r t i l i t y i s +.24, i n d i c a t i n g that f e r t i l i t y i n c r e a s e s as farm s i z e i n c r e a s e s . T h i s f i n d i n g supports the h y p o t h e s i s that l e v e l s of f e r t i l i t y should be p o s i t i v e l y a s s o c i a t e d with farm s i z e because: 1) labour requirements i n c r e a s e as farm s i z e i n c r e a s e s and c h i l d r e n are a major source of farm labour i n t r a d i t i o n a l s o c i e t i e s , 2) c h i l d r e n p r o v i d e s e c u r i t y f o r heads of farm f a m i l i e s when they reach o l d age, 1 9 5 Kathleen Newland, "Infant M o r t a l i t y and Health i n S o c i e t i e s " , WorldWatch Paper No. 47, Dec. 1981, pp.26-27 1 9 6 See d i s c u s s i o n i n chapter I I . 95 and 3) farmers with small h o l d i n g s have fewer numbers of c h i l d r e n i n order to prevent fragmentation of h o l d i n g s i n t o e conomically u n v i a b l e u n i t s . I t i s i n t e r e s t i n g t h a t i n Manupur, small h o l d e r s w i l l r i s k l a n d fragmentation by having l a r g e numbers of c h i l d r e n i n order to a v o i d having to h i r e o u t s i d e l a b o u r . 1 9 7 A l s o , i t i s b e l i e v e d that by having more c h i l d r e n , farmers can i n c r e a s e the s i z e of t h e i r h o l d i n g s i f they are lucky enough to have s o n s . 1 9 8 According to Mamdani, t h i s phenomenon can be reversed p r o v i d i n g labour saving technology becomes a v a i l a b l e to small h o l d e r s . 1 9 9 In the dry zone, many of the small h o l d i n g s are found i n c o l o n i z a t i o n schemes, where the e x i s t e n c e of v a r i o u s c o - o p e r a t i v e s , and the a v a i l a b i l i t y of 2- wheel t r a c t o r s and other labour saving d e v i c e s reduces the need for c h i l d r e n . Furthermore, i t i s not l e g a l l y p o s s i b l e f o r farmers to i n c r e a s e the s i z e of t h e i r h o l d i n g s w i t h i n c o l o n i z a t i o n schemes, so there i s no i n c e n t i v e to use c h i l d r e n as a means of f u t u r e l a n d a q u i s i t i o n . The f a c t o r s which i n f l u e n c e the f e r t i l i t y p a t t e r n s of s m a l l h o l d e r s i n Manupur are c l e a r l y d i f f e r e n t from those i n f l u e n c i n g small h o l d e r s i n the dry zone. 1 9 7 Mahmood Mamdani, The Myth of P o p u l a t i o n C o n t r o l ; Family Caste, and C l a s s i n an Indian V i l l a g e , Monthly Review Press, New York, 1972, p.76. 1 9 8 I b i d . , p.77. 1 9 9 I b i d . , pp.77-78 96 The t o t a l e f f e c t of average s i z e of small h o l d i n g s on y i e l d was +.40, which lends support to the hypothesis that a g r i c u l t u r a l p r o d u c t i v i t y i n c r e a s e s with farm s i z e . However, the maximum f i g u r e f o r average s i z e of small h o l d i n g s obtained fo r d i s t r i c t s i n the sample was 5.8 a c r e s . These f i n d i n g s are t h e r e f o r e q u i t e c o n s i s t e n t with f i n d i n g s reported i n the ARTI s t u d i e s which i n d i c a t e that a g r i c u l t u r a l p r o d u c t i v i t y i n c r e a s e s u n t i l farm s i z e reaches about s i x a c r e s , from which p o i n t i t begins to d e c l i n e . 2 0 0 The r e l a t i o n s h i p between major i r r i g a t i o n and farm s i z e was negative as expected, but very weak (-.15). It i s c l e a r that a g r i c u l t u r a l development has probably not i n f l u e n c e d the rate of f e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e i n the dry zone d u r i n g the p e r i o d from 1946 to 1971. D i s t r i c t s with high l e v e l s of a g r i c u l t u r a l development i n 1971, as measured i n terms of water supply c o n d i t i o n s and per acre y i e l d s , were the same d i s t r i c t s which had hi g h l e v e l s of a g r i c u l t u r a l development i n 1950 and 1960, and the r a t e of a g r i c u l t u r a l development d u r i n g the p e r i o d under study has been g r e a t e s t i n these same d i s t r i c t s . T h i s i s not s u r p r i s i n g , s i n c e d i s t r i c t s which have been b e n e f i c i a r i e s of major i r r i g a t i o n p r o j e c t s would n a t u r a l l y show the most r a p i d i n c r e a s e s i n major i r r i g a t i o n over time, and the g r e a t e s t i n c r e a s e s i n y i e l d per acre over time. The net decrease i n f e r t i l i t y i n d i s t r i c t s with hi g h l e v e l s of a g r i c u l t u r a l development during the 1946-1971 2 0 0 See d i s c u s s i o n on the r e l a t i o n s h i p between farm s i z e and a g r i c u l t u r a l p r o d u c t i v i t y i n chapter 2. 97 p e r i o d has not been greater than the net decrease i n f e r t i l i t y i n d i s t r i c t s with low l e v e l s of a g r i c u l t u r a l development. Furthermore, i f a g r i c u l t u r a l development has been a f a c t o r i n f e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e , and i f the r a t e of a g r i c u l t u r a l development v a r i e s from d i s t r i c t to d i s t r i c t , i t might be expected that 1971 d i f f e r e n t i a l s i n a g r i c u l t u r a l development would provide some e x p l a n a t i o n f o r 1971 d i s t r i c t - w i s e f e r t i l i t y d i f f e r e n t i a l s . T h i s c l e a r l y i s not the case. 3. Government P o l i c y and F e r t i l i t y I t was suggested i n chapter 2 that a g r i c u l t u r a l development might i n f l u e n c e f e r t i l i t y through mechanisms i n v o l v i n g income and n u t r i t i o n , which l e a d to a r e d u c t i o n of m o r t a l i t y and by extension, a r e d u c t i o n of f e r t i l i t y . I t was a l s o suggested that i n c r e a s e s i n income a s s o c i a t e d with higher a g r i c u l t u r a l p r o d u c t i v i t y might r e s u l t i n lower f e r t i l i t y , s i n c e i n c r e a s e s i n income c o u l d r e s u l t i n higher expenditures on s c h o o l i n g . However, there i s c o n s i d e r a b l e evidence that i n c r e a s e s i n l e v e l s of n u t r i t i o n , h e a l t h , and e d u c a t i o n d u r i n g the p e r i o d from 1946 to 1971, and decreases i n m o r t a l i t y d u r i n g the same p e r i o d , are l a r g e l y the product of GOSL s o c i a l welfare p o l i c i e s , and have l i t t l e to do with achievements i n a g r i c u l t u r a l development. A b r i e f overview of GOSL s o c i a l w e l f a r e p o l i c i e s i s t h e r e f o r e i n ord e r . The GOSL has been committed to a high l e v e l of s o c i a l w e l f a r e expenditure s i n c e Independence. As M i n i s t e r of Finance J.R. Jayawardene s t a t e d i n 1948: "We are spending both from 98 c u r r e n t revenue as w e l l as from loan funds a sum of Rs. 270.6 m i l l i o n , or about 40% of our t o t a l e x penditure, on welfare s e r v i c e s " . 2 0 1 From 1950 through to the mid-1960's approximately 30% of t o t a l annual Government expenditure was a l l o c a t e d to t r a n s f e r p a y m e n t s . 2 0 2 The bulk of these funds went toward food s u b s i d i e s ( r i c e and sugar) and the expansion of h e a l t h and e d u c a t i o n a l s e r v i c e s . 2 0 3 The e f f e c t i v e n e s s of the GOSL's m a l a r i a c o n t r o l programme, f i r s t i n t r o d u c e d i n 1946, has a l r e a d y been d i s c u s s e d . There i s evidence, however, that the r a p i d d e c l i n e i n crude death r a t e s which occurred d u r i n g the l a t e 1940's was at l e a s t p a r t l y due to the development of h e a l t h care f a c i l i t i e s i n r u r a l a r e a s . 2 0 4 A p o l i c y of s p r e a d i n g h e a l t h care f a c i l i t i e s i n r u r a l areas r a t h e r than c o n c e n t r a t i n g them in urban c e n t r e s was adopted i n the middle 1940's, and c o n s i d e r a b l e emphasis was p l a c e d on the c o n s t r u c t i o n of maternity c e n t r e s . The expansion of medical and para-medical 2 0 1 Godfrey G u n a t i l l e k e , Welfare and Growth i n S r i Lanka, Marga I n s t i t u t e , Marga Research Study S e r i e s - 2 , Colombo, 1974, p.6 2 0 2 I b i d . , p.17 and p.24 2 0 3 F o r a b r i e f overview of the GOSL development s t r a t e g y from about 1940 onwards, see I b i d . S i m i l a r i n f o r m a t i o n i s p r o v i d e d by Carr-Gregg. See John R.E. Carr-Gregg, "The Colombo P l a n : A Commonwealth Program f o r Southeast A s i a " , i n I n t e r n a t i o n a l C o n c i l i a t i o n , No. 467, Jan. 1951, pp.42-43. See R.H. Gray, Op. C i t . , pp.217-221. 99 s e r v i c e s c o n t i n u e d d u r i n g the 1950's and 1960's i n accordance with the GOSL's committment under the Colombo P l a n . Isenman r e p o r t s that maternal m o r t a l i t y d e c l i n e d from 16/1000 i n 1946 to 1.2/1000 in 1970, and notes that t h i s d e c l i n e was at l e a s t p a r t l y due to the spread of maternity c a r e . By 1980, more than two - t h i r d s of a l l b i r t h s took p l a c e i n h o s p i t a l s or maternity c e n t r e s . 2 0 5 Medical s e r v i c e s have been f r e e of charge i n S r i Lanka s i n c e the 1940's and there can be l i t t l e doubt that Government p o l i c i e s have had c o n s i d e r a b l e impact on l e v e l s of h e a l t h and m o r t a l i t y i n g e n e r a l , and on l e v e l s of maternal and i n f a n t m o r t a l i t y i n p a r t i c u l a r . The food s u b s i d i z a t i o n scheme has g e n e r a l l y been the most expensive component of the GOSL's s o c i a l welfare s t r a t e g y . In 1948/49, food s u b s i d i e s accounted f o r 35% of t o t a l t r a n s f e r payments, and i n 1951/52 t h i s f i g u r e rose to 6 5 % . 2 0 6 Even du r i n g the l a t e 1960's food s u b s i d i e s accounted f o r about 20% of t o t a l c u r r e n t expenditure by the Government. 2 0 7 In 1952 the UNP Government (United N a t i o n a l Party) faced a major f i n a n c i a l c r i s i s due to s e r i o u s reverse i n the terms of tr a d e , and i n order to balance accounts the food s u b s i d i e s were d r a s t i c a l l y 2 0 5 Paul Isenman, "Basic Needs: The Case of S r i Lanka", i n World Development, Vo l . 8 , No.3, March 1980, p.240 2 0 6 Godfrey G u n a t i l l e k e , Op. C i t . , p.15 2 0 7 Paul Isenman, Op. C i t . , p.240 100 r e d u c e d . 2 0 8 Expenditures by the Government on food s u b s i d i e s i n 1953/54 were only 5% of what they were i n 1951/52. T h i s r e s u l t e d i n v i o l e n t demonstrations throughout the country, and was a major f a c t o r i n the UNP's defeat by the SLFP ( S r i Lanka Freedom Party) i n the 1956 e l e c t i o n s . The food s u b s i d i e s were f u l l y r e s t o r e d by the SLFP, and s i n c e 1956 no Government has s e r i o u s l y attempted to remove them because of the attendant p o l i t i c a l r i s k s . 2 0 9 1945 through to 1971 was t h e r e f o r e a p e r i o d of almost u n i n t e r r u p t e d s o c i a l welfare s p e n d i n g . 2 1 0 There i s evidence that GOSL food s u b s i d i e s have in c r e a s e d the n u t r i t i o n of the poor and may have c o n t r i b u t e d to the d e c l i n e i n m o r t a l i t y which began i n the l a t e 1940's and continued u n t i l the e a r l y 1 9 7 0 ' s . 2 1 1 Government food r a t i o n s accounted f o r about 20% of c a l o r i c i n take f o r f a m i l i e s e a r n i n g l e s s than 400 Rs./ month, and 15% of c a l o r i c i n t a k e f o r f a m i l i e s earning between 600 and 1000 Rs./month i n 1969/70. 2 1 2 I t has been shown that i n c r e a s e s i n the l e v e l of m o r t a l i t y which occurred i n 1974 can be d i r e c t l y a t t r i b u t e d to cutbacks 2 0 8 Godfrey G u n a t i l l e k e , Op. C i t . , p.15 2 0 9 Excepting the UNP i n 1977 2 1 0 The UNP Government r e a l i z e d i n 1965 that there was a need to i n c r e a s e the funding of economic development programmes, but a d d i t i o n a l funds were obtained more from f o r e i g n a i d than by a r e d u c t i o n of t r a n s f e r payments. See Godfrey u n a t i l l e k e , Op. C i t . , pp.24-26. 2 1 1 Paul Isenman, Op. C i t . , pp.240-242 2 1 2 I b i d . , p.241 101 in the food s u b s i d i z a t i o n scheme, and were not due to changes in age s t r u c t u r e or a d e t e r i o r a t i o n of h e a l t h s e r v i c e s . 2 1 3 The importance of higher a g r i c u l t u r a l p r o d u c t i v i t y and income to m o r t a l i t y would be minimal, given the e x i s t e n c e of the food s u b s i d i z a t i o n scheme. Food has always been a v a i l a b l e to the poor, even d u r i n g p e r i o d s when i t was necessary to import i t . S i m i l a r l y , the dramatic i n c r e a s e i n l i t e r a c y which oc c u r r e d between 1946 and 1971 i s i n l a r g e p a r t a d i r e c t r e s u l t of GOSL p o l i c i e s . A B i l l f o r Free Education was i n t r o d u c e d i n t o State C o u n c i l i n 1943, and a programme which p r o v i d e d f r e e education at a l l l e v e l s e x i s t e d by 1945. 2 1" Table 14 shows that while 41.6% of the t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n had no s c h o o l i n g i n 1953, only 16% of the p o p u l a t i o n remained without s c h o o l i n g i n 1 9 7 0 : 2 1 5 2 1 3 Paul Isenman, Op. C i t . , p.241 2 1 4 Godfrey G u n a t i l l e k e , Op. C i t . , p.4 2 1 5 I b i d . , T a b l e 15, p.99 1 02 Table 14: Percentage D i s t r i b u t i o n of P o p u l a t i o n by Education - 1953, 1963, and 1969/70 1953 1 963 1969/70 No S c h o o l i n g 41 .6 36.6 16 Pr imary 46.8 39.3 39 Secondary 9.8 19.6 32 Passed GCE/SSC 0.9 3.4 1 2 Higher and T e c h n i c a l 0.9 1 . 1 1 100.0 100.0 1 00. 0 While male l i t e r a c y i n c r e a s e d from 628/1000 i n 1946 to 785/1000 in 1971, female l i t e r a c y i n c r e a s e d from 468/1000 to 709/1000 d u r i n g the same p e r i o d . 2 1 6 Table 15 i l l u s t r a t e s the l e v e l of educa t i o n a c c o r d i n g to age and sex i n 1 9 7 1 : 2 1 7 2 1 6 Census of P o p u l a t i o n , Department of Census and S t a t i s t i c s , Colombo, 1971, p.113 2 1 7 I b i d . , Table 8.3, p. 1 14 103 Table 15: L i t e r a c y Rates by Sex and Age - 1971 L i t e r a c y r a t e s per 1000 Ra t i o of male rate to female r a t e Age T o t a l Male Female (pe rcentage) 10 & over 785 856 709 120.7 10-14 830 837 823 101.7 15-19 867 883 851 103.8 20-24 871 910 831 109.5 25-29 847 910 783 116.2 30-34 824 904 738 122.5 35-39 745 863 625 1 38. 1 40-44 749 867 613 141.4 45-49 701 840 544 154.4 50-54 687 833 513 162.4 55-59 639 791 453 174.6 60-64 605 756 410 184.4 65-69 573 735 375 196.0 70-74 532 699 318 219.8 75 & over 429 608 238 255.5 I t i s e vident from the above t a b l e that between male and female l i t e r a c y has narrowed s i n c e 1946. Perhaps most i n t e r e s t i n g however, i s the f a c t that females of c h i l d b e a r i n g age show r e l a t i v e l y high l i t e r a c y . Progress i n 1 04 l i t e r a c y d u r i n g the p e r i o d from 1946 to 1971 i s mainly due to Government success i n expanding e d u c a t i o n a l f a c i l i t i e s throughout the country, and the f a c t that education has been f r e e and t h e r e f o r e a c c e s s i b l e to the general p o p u l a t i o n . 2 1 8 C l e a r l y , most achievements with r e s p e c t to improved n u t r i t i o n , reduced m o r t a l i t y and i n c r e a s e d l i t e r a c y during the p e r i o d from 1946 to 1971 were due to v a r i o u s government programmes and are not a t t r i b u t a b l e to a g r i c u l t u r a l development. While i t has not been the main purpose of t h i s study to e xplore p o l i c y i s s u e s , some of the f i n d i n g s have d e f i n i t e p o l i c y i m p l i c a t i o n s . I t i s e v i d e n t that achievements i n m o r t a l i t y and f e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e i n S r i Lanka are i n l a r g e p a r t the d i r e c t r e s u l t of government programmes which p r o v i d e d f o r m a l a r i a c o n t r o l , the extension of h e a l t h s e r v i c e s , the supply of food s u b s i d i e s to the poor, and mass e d u c a t i o n . 2 1 9 The f i n d i n g s i n t h i s study should be of i n t e r e s t to p o l i c y makers in developing c o u n t r i e s i n s o f a r as they demonstrate the importance of mass education to d e v e l o p m e n t . 2 2 0 E a r l y advocates of f r e e education i n S r i Lanka c o n s i d e r e d mass education to be e s s e n t i a l to the development 2 1 8 Census of P o p u l a t i o n , Op. C i t . , p.113 2 1 9 And to a l e s s e r extent, the promotion of f a m i l y p l a n n i n g . 2 2 0 T h i s study has not s p e c i f i c a l l y addressed the ways i n which education c o n t r i b u t e s to economic development. I t i s widely accepted that education i s b e n e f i c i a l i n t h i s regard. 105 p r o c e s s : 2 2 1 " I t i s not d i f f i c u l t to see that among the o b j e c t i v e s that would dominate n a t i o n a l p o l i c i e s a f t e r the war w i l l be the p r e v e n t i o n of unemployment, the r a i s i n g of the standard of l i v i n g of the masses, i n c r e a s e d p r o d u c t i o n , a more e q u i t a b l e system of d i s t r i b u t i o n , s o c i a l s e c u r i t y , promotion of c o - o p e r a t i v e e n t e r p r i s e , e t c . But as none of these t h i n g s can be f u l l y r e a l i z e d without mass educa t i o n we are of the o p i n i o n that f r e e education must come f i r s t and foremost." Investment in mass education i s a l l too o f t e n regarded as a luxury only to be adopted by s o c i a l i s t governments i n t e r e s t e d i n promoting e q u a l i t y of o p p o r t u n i t y . On the c o n t r a r y , mass education i s a fundamental and i n t e g r a l p a r t of the development pr o c e s s . Mass education should be a matter of s e r i o u s concern i n a l l c o u n t r i e s where a c o n d i t i o n of low m o r t a l i t y and low f e r t i l i t y has not been achieved. As C a l d w e l l has suggested: " I t seems probable - and has yet to be demonstrated - that any s o c i e t y can s u s t a i n s t a b l e h i g h f e r t i l i t y beyond two g e n e r a t i o n s of mass s c h o o l i n g " . 2 2 2 Fernando concludes that " f o s t e r i n g marriage postponements and i n c r e a s i n g the 2 2 1 As put forward by the S p e c i a l Committee on Education i n support of f r e e e d u c a t i o n . C i t e d i n K.M.H. Sumathipala, Op. C i t . , p.278. I t i s i n t e r e s t i n g that the S p e c i a l Committee advanced t h i s view i n 1943, a f u l l twenty-one years before T.W. S c h u l t z advanced h i s t h e o r i e s on human c a p i t a l and economic development. See T.W. S c h u l t z , Transforming T r a d i t i o n a l A g r i c u l t u r e , Yale U n i v e r s i t y Press, 1964. I t i s nowhere e v i d e n t , however, that the S p e c i a l Committee c o n s i d e r e d m o r t a l i t y and f e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e to be i n t e g r a l to development. 2 2 2 C a l d w e l l , 1982, Op. C i t . , p.305 106 e d u c a t i o n a l attainments of women appears to be the most pragmatic approach to c o n t r o l l i n g S r i Lankan f e r t i l i t y " . 2 2 3 The r e l a t i v e importance of the GOSL's Family Planning Programme has p r e v i o u s l y been noted. While r i s i n g i n age at marriage can l e a d to dramatic d e c l i n e s i n f e r t i l i t y over the short term, the r e d u c t i o n of m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y i s e s s e n t i a l i f su s t a i n e d low f e r t i l i t y i s to be ach i e v e d . There i s evidence that f a m i l y p l a n n i n g i s becoming i n c r e a s i n g l y important s i n c e 1 97 3 . 22 " Fernando c a l c u l a t e s that S r i Lanka's crude b i r t h r a t e w i l l d e c l i n e from 29.4 in 1976 to 27.5 i n 1981 s o l e l y on the b a s i s of d e c r e a s i n g m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y r a t e s . 4. A F i n a l Note Yotopoulos' conceptual fram has proved u s e f u l i n s o f a r as an a n a l y s i s of the r e l a t i o n between a g r i c u l t u r a l development and f e r t i l i t y i n S r i Lanka's dry zone i s concerned. However, i t i s c l e a r that f o r the a n a l y s i s of f e r t i l i t y d i f f e r e n t i a l s i n the dry zone, that p o r t i o n of Yotopoulos' frame which d e a l s with economic development i s unnecessary. T h i s i s l a r g e l y due to the weak r e l a t i o n between income arid f e r t i l i t y , which may be p e c u l i a r to S r i L a n k a . 2 2 5 S i m i l a r l y , m o r t a l i t y does not appear 2 2 3 D a l l a s F.S. Fernando, 1979, Op. C i t . , p.139 2 2 " See D a l l a s F.S. Fernando, 1976, Op.Cit., p.42 2 2 5 Food s u b s i d i e s , f r e e e d u c a t i o n , and f r e e h e a l t h care a l l minimize the importance of income to f e r t i l i t y i n S r i Lanka. T h i s d i s t i n g u i s h e s S r i Lanka from many T h i r d World c o u n t r i e s . 107 to be c r i t i c a l to an a n a l y s i s of dry zone f e r t i l i t y d i f f e r e n t i a l s . Components of Yotopoulos' t h e o r e t i c a l frame which are most u s e f u l i n the a n a l y s i s of dry zone f e r t i l i t y d i f f e r e n t i a l s are t h e o r i e s concerning the r e l a t i o n between c u l t u r a l f a c t o r s , education, age at marriage, and m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y . While data on e t h n i c composition, education l e v e l s and age at marriage are a v a i l a b l e f o r i n d i v i d u a l d i s t r i c t s of S r i Lanka, i t i s c l e a r that v i l l a g e l e v e l s t u d i e s are necessary before the r e l a t i o n s h i p between c u l t u r e , education, and other f a c t o r s a f f e c t i n g age at marriage and m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y can be thoroughly analyzed. As m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y r a t e s decrease, i t becomes i n c r e a s i n g l y important to o b t a i n r e l i a b l e i n f o r m a t i o n on c o n t r a c e p t i v e p r a c t i c e s and f a c t o r s which i n f l u e n c e the r a t e at which they are adopted. 108 B i b l i o g r a p h y Akin, John e t . a l , "The Determinants of B r e a s t f e e d i n g i n S r i Lanka" , i n Demography, Vol.18, No.3, 1981, pp.287-307 Abhayaratne, O.E.R., and Jayewardene, C.H.S., F e r t i l i t y Trends in Ceylon, The Colombo A p o t h e c a r i e s ' Co., Ltd . , Colombo, 1967 Anker, Richard, "Demographic Change and the Role of Women: a Research Programme i n Developing C o u n t r i e s " , i n Ric h a r d M. Anker e t . a l . , Women's Role and P o p u l a t i o n Trends i n the T h i r d World, I n t e r n a t i o n a l Labour O r g a n i z a t i o n , London, 1982 Becker, Gary S., "An Economic A n a l y s i s of F e r t i l i t y " , i n Ansley Coale (ed.), Demographic and Economic Change i n Developed C o u n t r i e s , U n i v e r s i t i e s - N a t i o n a l Bureau Conference S e r i e s 11, P r i n c e t o n U n i v e r s i t y Press, P r i n c e t o n , 1960 Becker, Gary S., and Lewis, H. Gregg, "On the I n t e r a c t i o n Between Quantity and Q u a l i t y of C h i l d r e n " , in J o u r n a l of P o l i t i c a l Economy, Vol.81, No.2, P t . I I , M a r c h / A p r i l 1973, pp.s279-s288 Bishop, Mary, From Right to L e f t : A P e r s p e c t i v e on the Role of the V o l u n t e e r s i n Family P l a n n i n g i n the West and i n South A s i a , M.A. T h e s i s , The U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h Columbia, 1971 Bongaarts, John, "A Framework f o r a n a l y z i n g the Proximate Determinants of F e r t i l i t y " , i n Po p u l a t i o n and Development Review, No.4, V o l . , March 1978, pp.105-132 Brown, John, Mahaweli Reconnaissance Study: S o c i o l o g y and Environmental S t u d i e s , Unpublished Report C a l d w e l l , John C , Reddy, P.H., and C a l d w e l l , Pat, "The Causes of Demographic Change i n R u r a l South I n d i a : 109 A Micro Approach", i n P o p u l a t i o n and Development Review, Vo l . 8 , No.4, Dec. 1982, pp.689-727 C a l d w e l l , John C , Theory of F e r t i l i t y D e c l i n e , Academic Press, Inc., New York, 1982 C a n t r e l l e , P., F e r r y , B., and Mondot, J . , " R e l a t i o n s h i p s Between F e r t i l i t y and M o r t a l i t y i n T r o p i c a l A f r i c a " , i n Preston, Samuel H. (ed.), The E f f e c t s of i n f a n t and C h i l d M o r t a l i t y on F e r t i l i t y , Academic Press, Inc., New York, 1978 Carr-Gregg, John R.E., "The Colombo Pl a n : A Commonwealth Program f o r Southeast A s i a " , i n I n t e r n a t i o n a l C o n c i l i a t i o n , No. 467, Jan. 1951 Chambers, Robert, Water Management and Paddy Prod u c t i o n i n the Dry Zone of S r i Lanka, A g r a r i a n Research and T r a i n i n g I n s t i t u t e , O c c a s i o n a l P u b l i c a t i o n No.8, Colombo, 1978 Chenery, H o l l i s , e t . a l . , R e d i s t r i b u t i o n with Growth, Oxford U n i v e r s i t y Press, London, 1974 Chowdhury, A.K.M. Alauddin, e t . a l . , "Experience i n P a k i s t a n and Bangladesh", i n Samuel H. Preston (ed.), The E f f e c t s of Infant and C h i l d M o r t a l i t y on F e r t i l i t y , Academic Press, Inc . , New York, 1978 C l i n e , W i l l i a m R., ' A g r i c u l t u r a l S t r a t e g y and Rural Income D i s t r i b u t i o n ' , i n G e r a l d M. Meier (ed.), Leading Issues i n Economic Development, Oxford U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s . New York, 1976 Coale, Ansley J . , "The Demographic T r a n s i t i o n : A Summary, Some Lessons, and Some O b l i g a t i o n s " , i n Cho, Lee-Jay, and Kobayashi, Kazumasa (eds.), F e r t i l i t y T r a n s i t i o n of the East Asian P o p u l a t i o n s , The U n i v e r s i t y Press of Hawaii, Honolulu, 1979 110 Coale, Ansley J . , Anderson, Barbara A., and Harm, Erna, Human F e r t i l i t y i n Russia Since the 19th Century, P r i n c e t o n U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , P r i n c e t o n , 1979 Coale, Ansley J . , "Recent Trends i n F e r t i l i t y i n Less Developed C o u n t r i e s " , i n Science, Vol.221, Aug. 1983, pp.828-832 Cook, Maria Sophia Lengyel, and Repetto, Robert, "The Relevance of the Developing C o u n t r i e s to Demographic T r a n s i t i o n : F u r t h e r Lessons from the Hungarian Experience", i n Demography, Vol.36, No.1, Mar. 1982, pp.105-128 Corea, Gamani, The I n s t a b i l i t y of an Export Economy, Marga I n s t i t u t e , Colombo, 1975 Davis, K i n g s l e y , The P o p u l a t i o n of I n d i a and P a k i s t a n , P r i n c e t o n U n i v e r s i t y Press, P r i n c e t o n , 1951 DeWalt, B i l l i e R., Modernization i n a Mexican E j i d o : A Study i n Economic Adap t a t i o n , Cambridge U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , Cambridge, 1979 Duza, Badrud, "Determinants of M a r i t a l Postponement in S r i Lanka", i n " N u p t i a l i t y and P o p u l a t i o n p o l i c y , " P o p u l a t i o n C o u n c i l , New York, 1977 E b e r s t a d t , Nick, F e r t i l i t y D e c l i n e i n the Less Developed C o u n t r i e s , Praeger P u b l i s h e r s , New York, 1981 E d i r i s i n g h e , N e v i l l e , and Poleman, Thomas T., "Rice Economy of S r i Lanka: Consumption C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s and P r o d u c t i o n Trends", i n Marga, Vol.4, No.3, 1977, pp.1-59 Ellman, A.O., and Ratnaweera, D. de S., New Settlement Schemes in S r i Lanka, A g r a r i a n Research and T r a i n i n g I n s t i t u t e , Research Study S e r i e s No.5, Colombo, 1974 Ekanem, I t a I., "A Further Note on the R e l a t i o n Between Economic Development and F e r t i l i t y " , i n 111 Demography, Vol.9, No.3, August 1972, pp.383-398 Farmer, B.H., Pioneer Peasant C o l o n i z a t i o n i n Ceylon, Oxford U n i v e r s i t y Press, 1957 Fernando, D a l l a s F.S., "A Note on D i f f e r e n t i a l F e r t i l i t y " , i n Demography, Vol.11, No.3, August 1974, pp.441-456 Fernando, D a l l a s F.S., "Changing N u p t i a l i t y P a t t e r n s in S r i Lanka 1901-1971", in P o p u l a t i o n S t u d i e s , Vol.29., No.2, J u l y 1975, pp.179-190 Fernando, D a l l a s , " F e r t i l i t y Trends i n S r i Lanka and Future Prospects",. • J o u r n a l of B i o s o c i a l S c i e n c e , Vol.8, 1976, pp.35-43 Fernando, D a l l a s , " N u p t i a l i t y , Education, Infant M o r t a l i t y and F e r t i l i t y i n S r i Lanka", J o u r n a l of B i o s o c i a l Science, No.11, 1977, pp.133-140 F r e d e r i k s e n , Harald, " M a l a r i a C o n t r o l and P o p u l a t i o n Pressure i n Ceylon", i n P u b l i c H e a l t h Reports, Vol.75, No.10, October 1960, pp.865-868 F r e d e r i k s e n , H a r a l d , "Economic and Demographic Consequences of M a l a r i a C o n t r o l in Ceylon", i n Indian J o u r n a l of M a l a r i o l o g y , Vol.16, No.4, December 1962, pp.379-391 F r e d e r i k s e n , Harald, "Feedbacks i n Economic and Demographic T r a n s i t i o n " , i n Sc ience, Vol.166, 1969, pp.837-847 F r i s c h , Rose E., " P o p u l a t i o n , N u t r i t i o n , and F e c u n d i t y : S i g n i f i c a n c e f o r I n t e r p r e t a t i o n of Changes in F e r t i l i t y " , i n F e r t i l i t y D e c l i n e i n the Less Developed C o u n t r i e s , E b e r s t a d t , Nick (ed.), Praeger P u b l i s h e r s , New York, 1981 Gray, R.H., "The D e c l i n e of M o r t a l i t y i n Ceylon and the Demographic E f f e c t s of M a l a r i a C o n t r o l " , i n P o p u l a t i o n S t u d i e s , Vol.28, No.2, 1974, 1 1 2 pp.187-229 Gross, R.N., " I n t e r r e l a t i o n Between Hea l t h and P o p u l a t i o n : Observations d e r i v e d from F i e l d E x periences", i n S o c i a l Science and Medicine, Vol.14C, No.2, June 1980, pp.99- 1 20 Gunasinghe, Newton, "Underdevelopment and D e c l i n i n g F e r t i l i t y i n a Kandyan V i l l a g e " , i n E p s t e i n , T.S., and Jackson, D a r r e l l ( e d s . ) , The F e a s i b i l i t y of F e r t i l i t y Planning, Permagon Press, Oxford, 1977 G u n a t i l l e k e , Godfrey, Welfare and Growth i n S r i Lanka, Marga I n s t i t u t e , Marga Research S t u d i e s - 2 , Colombo, 1974 H a s b u l l a h , S.H., The F e r t i l i t y Behavior of Muslims i n S r i Lanka, M.A. T h e s i s , The U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h Columbia, 1984 Hayami, Y u j i r o , and Ruttan, Vernon, A g r i c u l t u r a l Development: An I n t e r n a t i o n a l P e r s p e c t i v e , The Johns Hopkins U n i v e r s i t y Press, B a l t i m o r e , 1971 Heer, David M., and Smith, Dean 0, " M o r t a l i t y L e v e l s , D e s i r e d Family S i z e , and P o p u l a t i o n Increase", i n Demography, Vol.5, No.1, 1968, pp.104-121 H i c k s , Norman and S t r e e t e n , Paul, " I n d i c a t o r s of Development: The Search f o r a Basic Needs Y a r d s t i c k " , i n World Development, v o l . 7 , No.6, June 1979, pp.567-580 H i c k s , W. Whitney, "Economic Development and F e r t i l i t y Change in Mexico, 1950-1970", i n Demography, Vol.11, No.3, August 1974, pp.407-421 H o l s i n g e r , Donald B., and Kasarda, John D., "Education and Human F e r t i l i t y : S o c i o l o g i c a l P e r s p e c t i v e s , " i n P o p u l a t i o n and Development: The Search f o r S e l e c t i v e I n t e r v e n t i o n s , The Johns Hopkins U n i v e r s i t y Press, Balimore, 1976 1 1 3 Huffman, Sandra L., e t . a l . , " N u t r i t i o n and Post-Partum Amenorrhea i n Rural Bangladesh", i n Po p u l a t i o n S t u d i e s , vol.32, No.2, J u l y 1978, pp.251-260 Isenman, Paul, "Basic Needs: the Case of S r i Lanka", i n World Development, Vol.8, No.3, March 1980, pp.237-258 Jayasurya, J.E., E d u c a t i o n a l P o l i c i e s and Progress During B r i t i s h Rule i n Ceylon ( S r i Lanka) 1796- 1948, A s s o c i a t e d Education P u b l i s h e r s , Colombo, No date given J e l l i f f , D.B., " C h i l d N u t r i t i o n i n Developing C o u n t r i e s " , Agency f o r I n t e r n a t i o n a l Development, 1969 Jones, Gavin W., and Selvaratnam, S., " P o p u l a t i o n Growth and Economic Development i n Ceylon," Marga, Colombo, 1972 Kammeyer, Kennith C.W., and Skidmore, A r t h u r , "Comment on D. Loschky and W. Wilcox's 'Demographic T r a n s i t i o n : A F o r c i n g Model'", i n Demography, Vol.12, No.2, May 1975, pp.343- 349 Kasarda, John D., i n Demography, Vol.8, No.3, Aug. 1971, pp.307-317 K e n d a l l , M.G., and O'Muircheartaigh, C.A., "Path A n a l y s i s and Model B u i l d i n g " , World F e r t i l i t y Survey T e c h n i c a l B u l l e t i n s , No.2/Tech.414, March 1977 K e r l i n g e r , Fred N., and Pedhazur, E l a z a r J . , M u l t i p l e Regression i n B e h a v i o r a l Research, H o l t , R i n e h a r t , and Winston, Inc., New York, 1973 Khan, Mahammed A l i , and S i r a g e l d i n , I s m a i l , "Education, Income, and F e r t i l i t y i n P a k i s t a n " , i n Economic Development and C u l t u r a l Change, Vol.27, No.3, A p r i l 1979, pp.514-547 1 1 4 Knodel, John E., The D e c l i n e of F e r t i l i t y i n Germany, P r i n c e t o n U n i v e r s i t y Press, P r i n c e t o n , 1974 Knodel, John, and K i n t n e r , H a l l i e , "The Impact of B r e a s t f e e d i n g P a t t e r n s on the Biometric A n a l y s i s of Infant M o r t a l i t y " , i n Demography, Vol.14, No.4, November 1977, pp.391-409 Knodel, John, and van de Walle, Etienne, "Lessons from the Past: P o l i c y I m p l i c a t i o n s of H i s t o r i c a l F e r t i l i t y S t u d i e s " , i n P o p u l a t i o n and Development Review, Vol.5, No.2, June 1979, pp.21 7-245 Kodidara, S.U., "Family Planning i n Ceylon", i n T.E. Smith, The P o l i t i c s of Family Planning i n the T h i r d World, George, A l l a n & Unwin L t d . , London, 1 973 L a i , C a l v i n , UBC SPSS: S t a t i s t i c a l Package f o r the S o c i a l Sciences 9.00 (under MTS), U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h Columbia, 1980 Langford, CM., " F e r t i l i t y Change in S r i Lanka Since the War: An A n a l y s i s of the Experience of D i f f e r e n t D i s t r i c t s " , i n P o p u l a t i o n S t u d i e s , Vol.35, No.2, J u l y 1981, pp.285-306 Latham, Michael C , " N u t r i t i o n and I n f e c t i o n i n N a t i o n a l Development", i n Abelson, P h i l i p H., Food: P o l i t i c s , Economics, N u t r i t i o n , and Research, American A s s o c i a t i o n f o r the Advancement of Science, Washington, D.C, 1 975 Leach, Edmund, Pul E l i y a , Cambridge U n i v e r s i t y Press, Cambridge, 1961 L e i b e n s t e i n , Harvey "The Economic Theory of F e r t i l i t y D e c l i n e " , i n Q u a r t e r l y J o u r n a l of Economics, Vol.89, 1975, pp.1-31 Loebner, Hugh, and D r i v e r , Edwin D., " D i f f e r e n t i a l F e r t i l i t y i n 1 15 C e n t r a l I n d i a : A Path A n a l y s i s " , i n Demography, Vol.10, No.3, August 1973, pp.329-350 Loschky, David J . , and Wilcox, W i l l i a m C , "Demographic T r a n s i t i o n : A F o r c i n g Model", in Demography, Vol.11, No.2, May 1974, pp.215- 225 Mahroof, M.M.M., "Muslim Education in Ceylon: 1780-1880", in I s l a m i c C u l t u r e , V o l . XLVI, No.1, January, 1972, pp.119-136 Mamdani, Mahmood, The Myth of P o p u l a t i o n C o n t r o l : Family, Caste, and C l a s s i n an Indian V i l l a g e , Monthly Review Press, New York, 1972 Maudlin, W. Parker, "Patterns of F e r t i l i t y D e c l i n e Developing C o u n t r i e s , 1950-1975", i n E b e r s t a d t , Nick (ed.), F e r t i l i t y D e c l i n e i n the Less Developed C o u n t r i e s , Praeger P u b l i s h e r s , New York, 1981 i n Meegama, S.A., " M a l a r i a E r a d i c a t i o n and i t s E f f e c t on M o r t a l i t y L e v e l s " , i n P o p u l a t i o n S t u d i e s , No.21, Nov. 1967, pp.207-237 Meier, G e r a l d M. (ed.), Leading Issues i n Economic Development, Oxford U n i v e r s i t y Press, New York, 1976 M e l l o r , John W., The New Economics of Growth: A S t r a t e g y f o r I n d i a and the Developing World, C o r n e l l U n i v e r s i t y Press, Ithaca, 1976 Morgenstern, H a l , "Uses of E c o l o g i c A n a l y s i s i n E p i d e m i o l o g i c Research", American J o u r n a l of P u b l i c H e a l t h , No.72, 1972, pp.1336-1344 M o r r i s , M o r r i s D., Measuring the C o n d i t i o n of the World's Poor: The P h y s i c a l Q u a l i t y of L i f e Index, Pergamon Press, New York, 1979 Newland, Kathleen, "Infant M o r t a l i t y and Health i n S o c i e t i e s " , WorldWatch Paper No.47, Dec. 1981 1 1 6 Newman, Peter, " M a l a r i a E r a d i c a t i o n and i t s E f f e c t on M o r t a l i t y L e v e l s : A Comment", i n P o p u l a t i o n S t u d i e s , No.23, 1969, P t . I I . , pp.285-288 Nie,Norman, e t . a l . , SPSS Second E d i t i o n , McGraw-Hill, New York, 1975 N o t e s t e i n , Frank W., "Economic Problems of P o p u l a t i o n Change", in Proceedings of the E i g h t h I n t e r n a t i o n a l Conference of A g r i c u l t u r a l Economists, Oxford U n i v e r s i t y Press, London, 1953, pp.13-31 Obeyesekere, Gananath, Land Tenure in V i l l a g e Ceylon: A S o c i o l o g i c a l and H i s t o r i c a l Study, Cambridge U n i v e r s i t y Press, London, 1967 O s c h l i , Frank Wm., and K i r k , Dudley, "Modernization and the Demographic T r a n s i t i o n i n L a t i n America and the Caribbean", i n Economic Development and C u l t u r a l Change, No.23, 1974/75, pp.391-419 P i e r i s , Ralph, " M o t i v a t i o n s R e l a t i n g to Family Planning i n S r i Lanka", i n Marga, Vol.5, No.1, 1978, pp.73- 92 Pr e s t o n , Samuel H., The E f f e c t s of Infant and C h i l d M o r t a l i t y on F e r t i l i t y , Academic Press, Inc., New York, 1978 P u f f e r , Ruth R i c e , and Serrano, C a r l o s V., " P a t t e r n s of M o r t a l i t y i n Childhood", Pan American H e a l t h O r g a n i z a t i o n , WHO, Washington D.C, 1973 Rasaputram, Warnasena, I n f l u e n c e of F o r e i g n Trade on the L e v e l and Growth of N a t i o n a l Income of Ceylon: 1926-1957, C e n t r a l Bank of Ceylon, Colombo, 1964 Repetto, Robert, Economic E q u a l i t y and F e r t i l i t y i n Developing C o u n t r i e s , Resources f o r the Future, Inc., Washington, 1979 1 17 Rowley, John, "Joy Happiness, and a Woman's F r i e n d " , i n People, V o l . 2 , No.4, 1975, pp.15-17 Roy, Prannoy, " T r a n s i t i o n i n A g r i c u l t u r e : E m p i r i c a l I n d i c a t o r s and R e s u l t s (Evidence from Punjab, I n d i a ) " , i n The J o u r n a l of Peasant S t u d i e s , Vol.8, No.2, January 1981, pp.212-241 Ryan,Bryce, " I n s t i t u t i o n a l F a c t o r s i n Si n h a l e s e F e r t i l i t y " , Milbank Memorial Fund Q u a r t e r l y , Vol.30, 1952, pp.359-381 Schrimshaw, Susan CM., "Infant M o r t a l i t y and Behavior i n the Regu l a t i o n of Family S i z e " , in E b e r s t a d t , Nick (ed.), F e r t i l i t y D e c l i n e i n the Less Developed C o u n t r i e s , Praeger P u b l i s h e r s , New York, 1981 S c h u l t z , T.P., " I n t e r r e l a t i o n s h i p s Between M o r t a l i t y and F e r t i l i t y " , i n Ridker, Ronald R. (ed.), P o p u l a t i o n and Development:The Search f o r S e l e c t i v e I n t e r v e n t i o n s , The Johns Hopkins U n i v e r s i t y Press, B a l t i m o r e , 1975 S c h u l t z , T.W., Transforming T r a d i t i o n a l A g r i c u l t u r e , Yale U n i v e r s i t y Press, 1964 Simon, J u l i a n , "Income, Wealth, and t h e i r D i s t r i b u t i o n as P o l i c y T o o l s i n F e r t i l i t y C o n t r o l " , i n Ridker, Ronald R. (ed.), P o p u l a t i o n and Development: The Search f o r S e l e c t i v e I n t e r v e n t i o n s , The Johns Hopkins U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , B a l t i m o r e , 1976 Sumathipala, K.H.M., H i s t o r y of Education i n Ceylon: 1796 - 1965, Dehiwala, 1968 T a y l o r , C a r l E., Newman, Jeanne S., and K e l l y , Narinder U., "The C h i l d S u r v i v a l Hypothesis", i n Po p u l a t i o n S t u d i e s , Vol.30, No.2, J u l y 1976, pp.263-278 T i l a k a r a t n e , W.M., "A S r i Lankan V i l l a g e on the Verge of 1 18 Demographic T r a n s i t i o n " , i n E p s t e i n T.S., and Jackson, D a r r e l l ( e d s . ) , The F e a s i b i l i t y of F e r t i l i t y Planning, Permagon Pr e s s , Oxford, 1977 Todaro, Michael P., Economic Development in the T h i r d World, Longman Group L i m i t e d , London, 1977 Wanigaratne, R.D., "A Peasant Settlement i n the Dry Zone", i n Morrison, B a r r i e M. (ed.), The D i s i n t e g r a t i n g V i l l a g e , Lake House Investments L t d . , Colombo, 1979 Warriner, Doreen, " R e l a t i o n Between Land Reform and Development", i n G e r a l d M. Meier (ed.), Leading Issues i n Economic Development, Oxford U n i v e r s i t y Press, New York, 1976, pp.607-612 Woods, Robert, Population A n a l y s i s i n Geography, Longman Group L i m i t e d , London, 1979 Woods, Robert, T h e o r e t i c a l P o p u l a t i o n Geography, Longman Group L i m i t e d , New York, 1982 Yotopoulos, Pan A., "The P o p u l a t i o n Problem and the Development S o l u t i o n " , i n Food Research I n s t i t u t e S t u d i e s , V o l . XVI, No.1, 1977 Other P u b l i c a t i o n s "Census of P o p u l a t i o n , 1971", Department of Census and S t a t i s t i c s , Colombo, 1973 " S t a t i s t i c a l A b s t r a c t of S r i Lanka, 1973", Department of Census and S t a t i s t i c s , Colombo, 1975 "Census of P o p u l a t i o n , 1971, S r i Lanka, General Report", Department of Cenus and S t a t i s t i c s , Moratuwa, 1978 " B u l l e t i n on V i t a l S t a t i s t i c s , 1976", Department of Census and S t a t i s t i c s , Colombo, 1978 "World F e r t i l i t y Survey, S r i Lanka, 1975, F i r s t Report", Department of Census and S t a t i s t i c s , M i n i s t r y of Plan Implementation, Colombo, 1978 1 19 "Annual Report of the Monetary Board to the M i n i s t e r of f i n a n c e f o r the Year 1973", C e n t r a l Bank of Ceylon, Colombo, 1974 "The A g r a r i a n S i t u a t i o n R e l a t i n g t o Paddy C u l t i v a t i o n in F i v e S e l e c t e d D i s t r i c t s of S r i Lanka", P a r t s I, I I I , IV, and VI, A g r a r i a n Research and T r a i n i n g I n s t i t u t e , Colombo, 1975 "The S r i Lanka F e r t i l i t y Survey, 1975, A Summary of F i n d i n g s " , I n t e r n a t i o n a l S t a t i s t i c a l I n s t i t u t e , Voorburg (Netherlands), 1978 Appendix I Map Showing Area Designated as Dry Zone Mannar > Vavuni 1 Anuradhapura ^ ^ \ T r i ncomaO.ee 'olonnaruwa Put talam, Kurunegala wpparai WET ZONE Moneragala

Cite

Citation Scheme:

    

Usage Statistics

Country Views Downloads
United States 2 0
United Kingdom 1 0
China 1 0
City Views Downloads
Ashburn 2 0
Unknown 1 25
Beijing 1 0

{[{ mDataHeader[type] }]} {[{ month[type] }]} {[{ tData[type] }]}

Share

Share to:

Comment

Related Items