UBC Theses and Dissertations

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UBC Theses and Dissertations

Agricultural development and fertility patterns in the dry zone of Sri Lanka, 1946-1971 Gansner, James Hill 1985

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AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT AND F E R T I L I T Y PATTERNS IN THE DRY ZONE OF SRI LANKA:  1946-1971  by JAMES H I L L  GANSNER  A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE  REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF ARTS  in THE  FACULTY OF GRADUATE  Department  of I n t e r d i s c i p l i n a r y  We a c c e p t to  THE  this  thesis  the required  as  October  James H i l l  Studies  conforming  standard  UNIVERSITY OF B R I T I S H  ©  STUDIES  COLUMBIA  1985  G a n s n e r , 1985  In  presenting  degree at the  this  thesis in  University of  partial  fulfilment  of  the  British Columbia, I agree  freely available for reference and study. I further copying  of  department  this thesis for or  by  his  or  scholarly purposes may be her  representatives.  It  permission.  Interdisciplinary  The University of British Columbia 1956 Main Mall Vancouver, Canada V6T 1Y3  DE-6(3/81)  that the  for  an advanced  Library shall make it  agree that permission for extensive  publication of this thesis for financial gain shall not  Department of  requirements  Studies  is  granted  by the  understood  that  be allowed without  head of copying  my or  my written  A b s t r a c t T h e w h e t h e r c a n  m a i n  1 9 7 1  b e  f e r t i l i t y  e x p l a i n e d  h y p o t h e s i z e d w i t h  l o w  u s e f u l  o n  n o t  b e t w e e n  D i f f e r e n t i a l s c u l t u r a l f a m i l y  d u e  t o  f a c t o r s , p l a n n i n g .  f e r t i l i t y f e m a l e  i n  t h e  T h e  v a r i a b l e s s t u d i e s .  e d u c a t i o n ,  d r y  f o u n d  i n  b e  w o r k  a g e  i s  c l o s e l y o n  t h e  p r o v i d e s  e m p l o y e d  i s  L a n k a ' s  a t  i n  d r y  a p a t h  d e v e l o p m e n t  p r i m a r i l y  f e m a l e  I t  a g r i c u l t u r a l  f e r t i l i t y  S r i  z o n e  a s s o c i a t e d  t o  Y o t o p o u l o s a n d  b e  o f  a g r i c u l t u r a l  e x p l a i n e d  d e t e r m i n e  L a n k a ' s  m i g h t  m e t h o d o l o g y t h a t  t o  d e v e l o p m e n t .  e f f e c t s  d i f f e r e n t i a l s a r e  i s  S r i  d e v e l o p m e n t  d e v e l o p m e n t  i n d i c a t e  f e r t i l i t y i n  s t u d y  a g r i c u l t u r a l  o t h e r  f r a m e .  F i n d i n g s t o  o f  e c o n o m i c  t h e o r e t i c a l  r e l a t e d  t e r m s  i n  t h i s  d i f f e r e n t i a l s  i n t e r m e d i a t e  f e r t i l i t y  a n a l y s i s .  o f  a g r i c u l t u r a l  f e r t i l i t y  t o  r e l a t i o n  i n  t h a t  d e v e l o p m e n t r e l a t e d  o b j e c t i v e  i s  z o n e .  t e r m s  o f  m a r r i a g e ,  a n d  iii  T a b l e  o f  C o n t e n t s Page  T a b l e  o f  C o n t e n t s  List  o f  Tables  L i s t  o f  F i g u r e s  i i i v v i  Chapter I 1 . Introduction  1  2.  Theoretical  Justification  3.  S r i L a n k a ' s D r y Zones A Natural Laboratory t h e S t u d y o f t h e R e l a t i o n B e t w e e n A g r i c u l t u r a l  Chapter  D e v e l o p m e n t  a n d  a n d  B a s e  2  F e r t i l i t y  f o r  7  I I  1 . Introduction  21  2.  Age  a t M a r r i a g e  3.  M o r t a l i t y  a n d  F e r t i l i t y  23  4.  E d u c a t i o n  a n d  F e r t i l i t y  27  5.  Income  6.  S i z e  7.  C u l t u r a l  8.  I r r i g a t i o n , P a d d y Y i e l d , P r a c t i c e s a n d Income  a n d o f  a n d  F e r t i l i t y  23  F e r t i l i t y  A g r i c u l t u r a l F a c t o r s  a n d  36 H o l d i n g s  a n d  F e r t i l i t y  F e r t i l i t y F a r m  41 46  M a n a g e m e n t 55  iv  9.  C o n t r a c e p t i o na n d  C h a p t e r  F e r t i l i t y  I I I  1.  I n t r o d u c t i o n  2.  P a t h  A n a l y s i s : A  Some  C a v e a t s  Brief  67 Brief  D e s c r i p t i o n a n d 67  3.  A  4.  E c o l o g i c a l C o r r e l a t i o n : Some  5.  62  N o t e  P r o c e d u r e  69 The  P r o b l e m  P r e c a u t i o n s  S t a t i s t i c a l  C h a p t e r  on  M o d e l  a n d 71  E m p l o y e d  75  I V  1.  I n t r o d u c t i o n  2.  S t a t i s t i c a l  3.  G o v e r n m e n t  4.  A  Final  84  R e s u l t s a n d P o l i c y  a n d  C o n c l u s i o n s  F e r t i l i t y  97  N o t e  106  B i b l i o g r a p h y A p p e n d i x Dry Zone  1:  84  108 Map  S h o w i n g  A r e a  D e s i g n a t e d  a s 120  V  L i s t  o f  T a b l e s Page  Table  Table  Table  T a b l e  1  2  3  4  M e a n 1971  A g e a t Marriage  1 9 4 6 , 1 9 5 3 , a n d 14  Literacy Rates o f t h e Population Aged 10 Year a n d Over [Number o f L i t e r a t e s p e r 1 0 0 0 P e r s o n s ]  15  Average Yields p e r Acre i n Relation t o S i z e o f H o l d i n g i n B u s h e l s (Maha 1971/72)  4 6  M e a n T o t a l N u m b e r o f C h i l d r e n D e s i r e d b y C u r r e n t l y M a r r i e d Women A g e d 25-34, b y B a c k g r o u n d V a r i a b l e s  49  52  Table  5  Association o f Various V a r i a b l e s w i t h R e l i g i o n  Table  6  M e a n A g e a t Marriage o f Women who M a r r i e d B e f o r e A g e 2 5 , b y R e l i g i o n a n d E t h n i c i t y  53  Cash Outlay p e r Acre f o r Paddy C u l t i v a t i o n A c c o r d i n g t o S o u r c e W a t e r S u p p l y  58  Table  7  Explanatory [Women O n l y ]  o f  T a b l e  8  D i s t r i b u t i o n W a t e r S u p p l y  o f V a r i e t i e s D u r i n g M a h a  A c c o r d i n g 1971/72  t o  T a b l e  9  D i s t r i b u t i o n W a t e r S u p p l y  o f V a r i e t i e s D u r i n g Y a l a  A c c o r d i n g 1 9 7 2  t o  T a b l e  10  A g e S p e c i f i c M a r i t a l R a t e s f o r S r iL a n k a s  T a b l e  11  N a P i  ew A c t G o v l a n n i n S r  F e r t i l i t y 1 9 6 3 - 1 9 7 2  c e p t o r s o f F a m i l y P l a n n i n g e r n m e n t , M u n i c i p a l i t y , a n d n g C l i n i c s iL a n k a : 1971  60  60  64  F a m i l y 66  vi  Table  Table  Table  Table  12  13  14  15  C o r r e l a t i o n s Between A l t e r n a t i v e I n d i c a t o r s and G e n e r a l F e r t i l i t y Rate  83  General Decomposition Path Model I  87  Table for  P e r c e n t a g e D i s t r i b u t i o n of P o p u l a t i o n by E d u c a t i o n - 1953, 1963, and 1969/70  102  Literacy  103  R a t e s by  Sex  and  Age  -  1971  L i s t  Diagram  I  o f  Yotopoulos'  F i g u r e s  Conceptual  Frame  Chart  1  Actual and P a d d y ( A l l  Trend in Area Sown C e y l o n ) 1 9 5 2 - 1 9 7 2  Chart  2  Actual and Trend ( T o n s / A c r e ) ( A l l  Chart  3  Crude Birth Rates for Ceylon and T h r e e R e g i o n s i n t h e D r y Z o n e : 1946-1971  C h a r t  4  V a r i a t i o n i n C e y l o n  Chart  5  Crude Death Rates in Ceylon S e l e c t e d R e g i o n s o f t h e D r y 1946-1971  in Paddy C e y l o n )  i n B i r t h a n d 1 8 7 1 - 1 9 7 1  C o n c e p t u a l  to  Yield 1 9 5 2 - 1 9 7 2  D e a t h  R a t e s  and Z o n e :  D i a g r a m  I I  M o d i f i e d  F r a m e  D i a g r a m  I I I  P a t h D i a g r a m D e p i c t i n g t h e R e l a t i v e S t r e n g t h o f R e l a t i o n s h i p s A m o n g D i f f e r e n t V a r i a b l e s a n d F e r t i l i t y  A c k n o w l e d g e m e n t s  J o h n s o n f o r  would  a n d  D r .  t h e i r  long Dr.  I  of  d a t e  criticism  and  input.  B a r i c e l l o  a n d  D r .  o f  p r o g r a m m i n g .  o v e r  I  am  m y  D r .  a d v i s o r  w h a t  who  p r o v e d to  also  F e r n a n d o  t o  Dr.  joined  p r o v i d e d am  T i s s a  m e m b e r s  indebted  a n d I  committee  M o r r i s o n ,  b e  r e l a t i v e l y  a  C h a n g  committee  w i t h  m u c h  indebted  to  f o r  i n p u t  t h e i r  G r a h a m  B a r r i e  Yunshick  the m e  Dr.  at  and a  v a l u a b l e  Dr.  Richard d u r i n g  t h e  w r i t i n g .  S p e c i a l f o r  a n d  Morrison,  l a t e r  S i z t o  Wood,  time.  (Waxier)  s t a g e s  thank  s u p p o r t  s o m e w h a t  e a r l y  to  J o h n  f a i t h f u l  period N a n c y  like  t h e i r  t h a n k s h e l p  t o  S i d d h a r t h a n w i t h  v a r i o u s  R a j a r a t n a m a s p e c t s  a n d o f  R o n n i e c o m p u t e r  1  Chapter  I  1. I n t r o d u c t i o n The whether  1971  L a n k a can It  primary  is  fertility  be  with  intermediate fertility  fertility  time  historical relevant  1  made  so  focus  can  to  evidence  an  be  are  might  on  be  various  link  i s found  between  t o be  weak,  explanation  of  not  be  i s 1971  because data  for  complete. in  2  In o r d e r  agricultural and  fertility  d i s c u s s e d . By  to  provide  development, during  taking  the  available  i n t o c o n s i d e r a t i o n , i t becomes p o s s i b l e come t o some c o n c l u s i o n s w i t h  to  respect  Ceylon  F o r i n s t a n c e , d a t a on age of m a r r i a g e were not reported some c e n s u s y e a r s w h i l e income d a t a a v a i l a b l e f o r 1971 were comparable w i t h data a v a i l a b l e f o r e a r l i e r p e r i o d s . 2  1  a s s o c i a t e d with  t h a t the  alternative  variables, will  development.  provided.  trends  1971  zone of S r i  effects  closely  event  the a n a l y s i s  t h e a n a l y s i s and  Formerly  its be  determine  development  fertility  that  of  periods  1946  to  to  and  to  agricultural  s t u d i e s . In t h e  intermediate  historical  shown  perspective,  from  due  is  i n the dry  agricultural  fertility  differentials The  broaden  that  development  is  study  differentials  variables  agricultural  earlier  low  in other  provision  this  e x p l a i n e d i n t e r m s of  hypothesized  associated  period  o b j e c t i v e of  in not  2  to  t h e i m p l i c a t i o n s of a g r i c u l t u r a l  decline  i n t h e d r y zone d u r i n g  changes large  levels  extent  the p e r i o d  of m o r t a l i t y , e d u c a t i o n ,  attributable  implications  development  of  to  government  various  policy  from  for  fertility  1946 t o 1971. As  and f e r t i l i t y GOSL  for  are to a  programmes,  fertility  the  are  also  considered. Findings development fertility  from t h i s  does  not  differentials.  explanation increased  for  low  schooling  Differentials of  cultural  either  agricultural  in  the  fertility  in  results  in  development  zone,  higher  planning  levels  the  high,  in  interest  probably from  agricultural  increased  explained  have 1946  significantly  of  fertility  which  with  occurred to  1971, In  i s low  may be t h e contribute  a n d w h i c h promote  to f e r t i l i t y  in  that  development.  female education  o f women's e d u c a t i o n  nature and  marriage.  c o n d i t i o n s a r e poor, education  2. T h e o r e t i c a l J u s t i f i c a t i o n  development  because  I t i s concluded  d e c l i n e . Government p o l i c i e s  contribute  The  o r income.  period  where economic  to  of  1971  the best  primarily  largely  during  situations  key t o f e r t i l i t y  c a n be  for  provides  deferral  would  achievements  is  1971,  in fertility  of  fertility  agricultural  explanation  H i g h female l i t e r a c y  regardless  and  much  that  f a c t o r s , and a r e n o t s t r o n g l y r e l a t e d  declines  dry  indicate  provide  i n female l i t e r a c y  terms  significant  study  family  decline.  and Base  the  relationship  has  been  f o r some t i m e . The v i e w t h a t  between  economic  a matter of t h e o r e t i c a l economic  development  and  3  modernization fertility the  by w r i t e r s s u c h  original  by  theory  Notestein,  high  mortality low  fertility  explanation Australia, stage  of  and  3).  fertility  be  a  increased "changes  response levels in  to of  economic  5  and  p a r t of  and  Leroy-  systematized  1950's, and a r e  transition."  that  fertility  2 ) , and low  Notestein in  transition,  Europe,  in  (stage  decline  development  is which  drawn  considered leads to  industrialization  and  structures,  are associated  which  and  2, and from  i n terms of " p r i n c i p l e s  Fertility  and  p r o v i d e s an  America,  1 t o stage  three  1 ) , low  mortality  theory  as  decline i s  which o c c u r s  from stage  economic  Dumont  fertility  trends  3, i s u n d e r s t o o d  from t h e European a n a l y s i s " . to  high  The  the l a t t e r  demographic  (stage  and the t r a n s i t i o n  2 t o stage  of  suggests  fertility  (stage  f o r c e s which l e a d t o  w r i t e r s were  of modernization  mortality  and h i g h  as  1940's  of demographic  of a wider process  stages:  by t h e s e  d u r i n g , the  to the theory  formulated  and c o n t a i n  advanced d u r i n g  advanced  Notestein  The  part  century  Theories  3  Frank  integral  connected,  d e c l i n e , was f i r s t  nineteenth  Beaulieu. by  are  urbanization: with  A n s l e y J . C o a l e , "The D e m o g r a p h i c T r a n s i t i o n : A Summary, Some Lessons, a n d Some O b s e r v a t i o n s " , i n L e e - J a y Cho a n d K o b a y a s h i Kazumasa, F e r t i l i t y T r a n s i t i o n i n the East Asian Populations, The U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s o f H a w a i i , H o n o l u l u , 1979, pp.10-11 3  • I b i d . , p.11 F r a n k W. N o t e s t e i n , "Economic P r o b l e m s o f P o p u l a t i o n Change", in P r o c e e d i n g s of t h e E i g h t h I n t e r n a t i o n a l Conference of A g r i c u l t u r a l E c o n o m i s t s , O x f o r d U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , London, 1953 5  4  industrialization, which,  firstly  urban  migration,  society  in  neither  turn  and  individual  explanatory  mechanisms o f f e r t i l i t y within  of s i g n i f i c a n t  decline  What  to r u r a l -  o f an u r b a n for  of  patterns  urbanization.  7  transformation  is  nor e s s e n t i a l t o  i t .  i s f a r too  i s needed  general  to  i s to i s o l a t e the  d e c l i n e , many o f  the wider p r o c e s s of  the  demographic  of f e r t i l i t y  industrial-urban  living  6  theory  f o r the a n a l y s i s  value.  leads  incentives  the  'urbanization'  of  creation  fertility".  form,  a g u a r a n t e e of f e r t i l i t y the concept  the  establishes  that  standard  and, s e c o n d l y ,  due t o the' a b s e n c e  recognized  much  reflected  in  i s not u s e f u l  Furthermore, have  urbanization  i t s classical  S r i Lanka,  Notestein  an i m p r o v e d  o f d i r e c t c o n t r o l s on  In transition  about  affects mortality  which  introduction  bring  which  are  urbanization:  I t i s e v i d e n t t h a t u r b a n i z a t i o n p r o v i d e s no mystical means for the reduction of fertility. The small family ideal and strong motivation f o r the r e p r o d u c t i o n of births have arisen in a variety of conditions. At present, we c a n n o t e i t h e r l i s t a l l of the f a c t o r s i n v o l v e d or attach p r e c i s e w e i g h t s t o t h e f a c t o r s we c a n l i s t .  R o b e r t Woods, T h e o r e t i c a l P o p u l a t i o n L t d . , New Y o r k , 1982, p.161 6  Geography,  Longman G r o u p  I n 1946 o n l y 15.4% o f S r i L a n k a ' s p o p u l a t i o n was classified as u r b a n ; i n 1971 t h e p e r c e n t a g e o f u r b a n p o p u l a t i o n had r i s e n o n l y s l i g h t l y t o 22.4%. I n t h e d r y z o n e , only 11.9% o f t h e population was urban i n 1971. A l l i s l a n d f i g u r e s a r e h i g h e r , p r i m a r i l y due t o t h e l a r g e urban population (55%) i n t h e d i s t r i c t o f Colombo. 7  See N o t e s t e i n ,  Op. C i t . , pp.17-18.  8  5  There i s , however, good r e a s o n t o b e l i e v e t h a t among t h e i m p o r t a n t f a c t o r s a r e : the growing importance of the i n d i v i d u a l r a t h e r than the family, and p a r t i c u l a r l y the e x t e n d e d f a m i l y g r o u p ; t h e development o f a r a t i o n a l and s e c u l a r point of view; the growing awareness o f t h e w o r l d and modern techniques through popular education; improved health; and t h e a p p e a r a n c e of alternatives to early marriage and childbearing a s a means o f l i v e l i h o o d and p r e s t i g e f o r women.  Yotopoulos p r o v i d e s a comprehensive to  influence  work  fertility,  i s a logical Equally  various questions theory of  in  extension  demographic  analysis.  " i t would  transition variables  could  and  intermediate variables  has  application  of  if  one  w i t h economic  t h a n be b r o u g h t  1 1  On  the  idea  of the c a u s a l i t y  which  Pan A. Yotopoulos, "The Development S o l u t i o n " , i n Food XVI, No. 1, 1977 9  1 0  11  Ibid. Ibid  p.9  runs  f o r purposes approached Social  i n as supplemental  basis  of  Y o t o p o u l o s h a s d e v i s e d a c o n c e p t u a l framework w h i c h broad  with  transition  change.  t o round out the c a u s a l  explanation".  and h i s  grappled  He s u g g e s t s t h a t  convenient  by s t a r t i n g  cultural  the  be  1 0  known  9  Yotopoulos the  factors  or i n d i r e c t l y ,  of N o t e s t e i n ' s .  concerning  and  improve  directly  important,  empirical  research,  either  overview of  from  links  and t o  this  view,  "provides a  development  to  Population Problem and the Research I n s t i t u t e Studies, V o l .  p o p u l a t i o n T h i s  a n dc o n v e r s e l y  c o n c e p t u a l  f o l l o w i n g  s t u d y  f r o m  p o p u l a t i o n  f r a m e w o r k  i s  t h ef o u n d a t i o n  i s  a n d  i s  b a s e d ,  r e p r o d u c e d  Diagram 1 Y o t o p o u l o s ' C o n c e p t u a l  i n  0  H  8 .1 3 O 1 "5 | 2 <1 C c  0.  2  .  w h i c h t h e  D i a g r a m  1 .  1  3  POPULATION' CiROWTII Migration  vari:ibles  i  1  F r a m e  " Intetmediate variables"  Socioeconomic  Other sociocconom ic indicators  u p o n  | ^Demographic ^j parameters  ECONOMIC; DEVELOPMENT  Income levels  t o d e v e l o p m e n t " .  i  !  Costs and benefits  Rate ,.1 |Vi|nil.lti«"l i i i t re.1st  Birthrate  of children  Death rate  Health and nutrition  Investment, savings, distribution, education, and other variables  F o r  p u r p o s e s  f r a m e w o r k  a r e  o  ft h i s  c o n s i d e r e d ,  1 2  I b i d . , p . 2 3  1 3  I b i d . , p . 2 4  s t u d y , a n d  o n l y  o n l y  t h e  f o r w a r d f i r s t  l i n k a g e s f o u r  i n  t h e  ' s e c t i o n s '  7  are  relevant. " 1  Yotopoulos' which  underly  which  framework,  i t , provide  i t i s possible of  the r e l a t i o n  fertility  i n t h e d r y zone diagram  agricultural influence would and  be  fertility  the  and  but  by  be i l l u s t r a t e d  dry  of l i n k s  between  that  period model  be c h a n g e s  S r i Lanka  study  on t h e b a s i s o f  that  facilitates  It  is  might  and  in  which  process  indicators  intermediate section  laboratory  development  f r o m 1946 t o 1971 n a t u r a l l y  This  in  agricultural trends  of  from  theoretically  i n the f o l l o w i n g  zone p r o v i d e s an i d e a l  conditions  clear  i n economic  changes  an  d e v e l o p m e n t and  development,  component,  also  hypotheses  point  S r i Lanka.  not only  rates,  It will  the  agricultural  economic  isa  of  due t o a number o f mechanisms.  reflected  fertility  variables.  that  development  model  between of  some  starting  to develop a  analysis  Yotopoulos'  a  and  and  that  f o r the  fertility,  t h e d r y zone d u r i n g t h e  invite  the a p p l i c a t i o n  of  a  b a s e d on Y o t o p o u l o s ' work.  3. S r i L a n k a ' s D r y Zone: A N a t u r a l L a b o r a t o r y f o r t h e S t u d y o f the r e l a t i o n between A g r i c u l t u r a l D e v e l o p m e n t and F e r t i l i t y Following Statistics  report  the  GOSL  Department  f o r 1971, t w e l v e o f  districts  are  categorized  Vavuniya,  Batticaloa,  as  Amparai,  dry  of  S r i Lanka's zone:  Census  twenty-two  Jaffna,  Trincomalee,  and  Mannar,  Kurunegala,  Q u e s t i o n s r e l a t i n g t o t h e f a c t t h a t t h e model employed h a s only forward linkages are discussed i n the methodological section (Chapter I I ) . The d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e i n t h e model i s g e n e r a l f e r t i l i t y r a t e , and n o t r a t e o f p o p u l a t i o n i n c r e a s e , a s in Yotopoulos' diagram. i a  8  Puttalam,  Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa,  districts  lie  'lowland' on  the  have  dry  zone, which  defined  larger  area  of a l a r g e r the  extends  down  of  island.  designated  an  agricultural  ideal  and  around  during  the  l a b o r a t o r y f o r the  from  and  of  it  zone  Sri  The  Lanka,  and  perimeter  of  districts 17  1946  to  relations  period  a  the  sample.  southern  1-A.  is  annual  permits  the  T h i s was a  dry  75-inch  p e r i o d from  fertility.  development,  shifted  i n Map  zone  isohyet.  into  the  wet  as  75-inch  the  of  study  Farmer  writers  locations  illustrated  d e v e l o p m e n t and  trends  by  two-thirds  geographical  zone,  the  These  1 5  Some  1 6  lowland  number of d i s t r i c t s  zone a r e  agricultural  fertility  Farmer a s  by  from t h e  i s most u s e f u l s i n c e  east coast  dry  i n t e r m s of  circumscribed  northern  The  as d r y The  provides  the  designated  characteristics.  d e f i n e d by  area  Moneragala.  is differentiated  zone  definition  zone c o v e r s  the  dry  the  this  inclusion  the  the  than  isohyet,  rapid  w i t h i n the a r e a  b a s i s of v e g e t a t i o n a l  However, as  dry  roughly  and  1971,  between  period during  of  which  increase to d e c l i n e . It i s a l s o a  See N e v i l l e E d i r i s i n g h e and Thomas T. Poleman, " R i c e Economy of S r i Lanka: Consumption Characteristics and Production T r e n d s " , i n Marga , V o l . 4 , No.3, 1977, p.57. Robert Chamber, Op. C i t . , a l s o c l a s s i f i e s t h e s e twelve d i s t r i c t s as d r y zone. R o b e r t Chambers, "Water Management and Paddy P r o d u c t i o n i n the Dry Zone o f S r i L a n k a " , O c c a s s i o n a l P u b l i c a t i o n No.8, Agrarian R e s e a r c h and T r a i n i n g I n s t i t u t e , Colombo, Dec. 1978 1 5  B.H. F a r m e r , P i o n e e r P e a s a n t U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1957, pp.1-6 1 6  1 7  See  Appendix I  C o l o n i z a t i o n in Ceylon,  Oxford  9  p e r i o d marked by which  changes  Yotopoulos  agricultural  in intermediate  suggests  may  development  proceeding,  it  will  be  variables;  mechanisms  influences  be  worthwhile  variables  through  which  fertility.  t o document  Before  some of  these  trends. Progress from  1946  to  s e c t o r , and under  1971  was  i n dry  zone a g r i c u l t u r e  o c c u r r e d almost  due  cultivation  primarily and  per  exclusively  to increases  acre y i e l d s .  340,402 a c r e s of  paddy  were  zone.  The  figure  f o r the  770,651 doubled tripled during bushels All  corresponding  acres,  indicating  during the during the  the  same  was  The  S r i Lanka t r e n d s in Chart  in area 1 and  cultivated  Chart  2.  the  the  paddy area  1946-47 maha in  the  under paddy more 1 9  Yields  average  13.6  a c r e were o b t a i n e d d u r i n g  period  dry  1970-71 maha s e a s o n  study.  period.  1946-47 maha s e a s o n  per  illustrated  under  both  cultivated  t h a t the a r e a  period  the  w i t h i n the  in  During  season, 1 8  during  yield  bushels,  the and  more per  while  1970-71 maha yield  per  is  than than acre 41.6  season.  acre  are  2 0  Department o f C e n s u s and S t a t i s t i c s , " S t a t i s t i c a l Abstract of C e y l o n , 1949", 'Major I r r i g a t i o n Schemes and other Paddy L a n d s ' , T a b l e 104, p.137. 1 8  Department o f C e n s u s and S t a t i s t i c s , "Statistical Abstract of S r i Lanka, 1973", T a b l e 63, 'Paddy: E x t e n t C u l t i v a t e d and Yield', p.109 1 9  N e v i l l e E d i r i . s i n g h e and Thomas T. Poleman, " R i c e Economy i n S r i L a n k a : C o n s u m p t i o n C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s and P r o d u c t i o n Trends", in Marga, V o l . 4 , No.3, 1977. See C h a r t 14, p.41 and C h a r t 17, p. 45. 2 0  10  Chart  1:  A c t u a l and T r e n d i n A r e a Sown t o Paddy ( A l l S r i Lanka) 1952-1972  11  Chart  2:  Actual  and T r e n d i n Paddy Y i e l d ( T o n s / A c r e ) ( A l l S r i Lanka) 1952-1972  While annual overall to  trend  birth  rates  from  1960 t o 1971  in crude b i r t h  to  i n t h e d r y zone was a s l i g h t  1960 (37 t o 4 4 ) . CBR's d e c l i n e d  period  tend  fairly  fluctuate,  increase  steadily  from  1946  during  the  (44 t o 3 4 ) . C h a r t 3 i l l u s t r a t e s  rates during  the p e r i o d  from  the  1946 t o 1971  trends in S r i  1 2  L a n k a  a n d  C h a r t  3 :  t h r e e  a n d  r e g i o n s  o f  C r u d e B i r t h T h r e e R e g i o n s  t h e  d r y  z o n e .  2  1  R a t e s f o r S r i L a n k a i n t h e D r y z o n e : 1946-1971  — i — i — i — i — i —  o  © -•• -» -«  fill Ceylon Northern Province N. Centr/pfttwanee Eastern/province  (_) 5  1968.0  1970.0  F i g u r e s f o r t h e p e r i o d f r o m 1 9 4 6 t o 1 9 6 0 w e r e o b t a i n e d f r o m d a t a p r o v i d e d i n A b a y a r a t n e a n d J a y a w a r d e n e , O p . C i t . S e e T a b l e 2 2 , ' C r u d e B i r t h R a t e s b y P r o v i n c e a n d D i s t r i c t , 1 9 0 0 t o 1960'. A l l S r i L a n k a f i g u r e s f o r t h e p e r i o d f r o m 1 9 6 1 t o1 9 7 1 w e r e o b t a i n e d f r o m S t a t i s t i c a l A b s t r a c t f o r S r i L a n k a , 1 9 7 3 , T a b l e 3 2 , ' B i r t h s i n S r i L a n k a ' , p . 6 1 . F i g u r e s f o r t h e N o r t h e r n P r o v i n c e ( J a f f n a , M a n n a r , V a v u n i y a ) , t h e N o r t h C e n t r a l P r o v i n c e ( A n u r a d h a p u r a , P o l o n n a r u w a ) a n d t h e E a s t e r n P r o v i n c e ( B a t t i c a l o a , T r i c o m a l i e , A m p a r a i ) f o r t h e p e r i o d f r o m 1 9 6 5 t o 1 9 7 1 w e r e a l s o o b t a i n e d f r o m S t a t i s t i c a l A b s t r a c t f o r S r i L a n k a , 1 9 7 3 . S e e T a b l e 3 3 , ' B i r t h s i n S r i L a n k a - b y d i s t r i c t s ' , a n d T a b l e 1 0 , ' E s t i m a t e d M i d - Y e a r P o p u l a t i o n - B y D i s t r i c t ' . F i g u r e s f o r s p e c i f i c r e g i o n s o f t h e d r y z o n e w e r e u n a v a i l a b l e f o r t h e 1 9 6 1 t o 1 9 6 4 p e r i o d , a n d t h e s e f i g u r e s w e r e e s t i m a t e d . 2 1  1  13  The shows  dry  interesting  depicted age  of  The  first  heading  in  zone,  during the p e r i o d  trends  Yotopoulos'  in  'cultural  is  factors'.  ideological  f a c t o r s . . . which  institution  of  Yotopoulos  the  classifies  female  dealt  by  Cultural  family".  frame.  are average  and m o r t a l i t y . under  2 2  the  f a c t o r s a r e "a complex o f  been  these f a c t o r s  variables  Yotopoulos  formed  Following  2 3  These  literacy,  with  has  1946 t o 1971,  intermediate  theoretical  females a t marriage, of these  some  from  i n three  Davis  around and  groups:  the Blake,  2 4  1) factors affecting exposure to intercourse, such a s age o f e n t r y i n t o m a r r i a g e , minimum i n t e r v a l between unions when a m a r r i a g e was t e r m i n a t e d by d i v o r c e or d e a t h (often prescribed by l a w ) , or voluntary abstinance (occasionally determined by social taboos on sexual i n t e r c o u r s e ) ; 2) f a c t o r s a f f e c t i n g e x p o s u r e t o c o n c e p t i o n , s u c h a s t h e a v a i l a b i l i t y and dissemination of c o n t r a c e p t i v e technology and sterilization (often sanctioned or p r e c l u d e d by law o r s o c i a l s y s t e m s ) ; and 3) factors a f f e c t i n g g e s t a t i o n and s u c c e s s f u l parturition, such as a b o r t i o n laws or h e a l t h s e r v i c e s p r o v i d e d t o p r e g n a n t women. Many o f t h e s e f a c t o r s w i l l to  fertility  sufficient  t r e n d s i n t h e d r y zone l a t t e r  to point  Yotopoulos p a r a m e t e r ' , even var i a b l e . 2 2  2 3  2  "  be d i s c u s s e d w i t h s p e c i f i c r e f e r e n c e  out  that  the  age  of  i t  is  marriage  classifies mortality as a 'demographic t h o u g h i t c l e a r l y f u n c t i o n s a s an i n t e r m e d i a t e  Pan Y o t o p o u l o s , Op. C i t . , p.28 Ibid.,  average  o n . F o r now,  pp.27-28  1 4  steadily  increased  in  the  dry  s t u d y . As i s c l e a r  from  marriage  more r a p i d l y  Table  has r i s e n  the f o l l o w i n g  1: Mean Age a t M a r r i a g e  Year  'socio-economic', develpment, increase that  literacy  increased  age a t  males:  contends  dramatically  that  appears  fertility  both  2 5  Di f f e r e n c e 6.3 6.3 5.8 4.5 under  "as  a  the  2 6  as  declines".  of 2 7  of  are l i k e l y  I t i s important one  heading  by-product  r a t e s and e d u c a t i o n a l l e v e l s  with  age o f  (years)  marriage  education  f o r b o t h m a l e s and f e m a l e s " .  associated  than  20.7 20.9 22. 1 23.5  deals with and  the average  Females  27.0 27.2 27.9 28.0  "education c o n s i s t e n t l y  variables  f o r females  Males  1 946 1953 1 963 1 971 Yotopoulos  table,  under  1946, 1953, 1963, a n d 1971  Average Census  zone d u r i n g t h e p e r i o d  the  be  t o note crucial  Literacy  i n t h e d r y zone and S r i Lanka  rates as a  whole d u r i n g t h e p e r i o d  D e p a r t m e n t o f C e n s u s and S t a t i s t i c s , "Census o f P o p u l a t i o n , 1971, S r i L a n k a " , T a b l e 7:1, 'Mean Age a t M a r r i a g e 1946, 1953, 1963, and 1971', p.99  2 5  2 6  Y o t o p o u l o s , Op. C i t . , p.33  2 7  Ibid.,  p.32  15  under  s t u d y , as  illustrated  Table  2:Literacy  50%. zone  2 8  DRY  Difference  ZONE  Male Female  Difference  1 946  765  468  297  726  436  290  1953  807  555  252  789  545  244  1 963  858  675  183  773  624  1 49  1 971  856  709  1 47  833  689  1 44  is  clear  is  from  the  the  increase  In  436  the  in  dry  1946  figures  than  female  zone, the to  table  female  in  689  between male l i t e r a c y The  above  i n b o t h male and  dramatic.  gap  CEYLON  M a l e Female  increases  from  table:  t h e P o p u l a t i o n a g e d 10 Y e a r s and o v e r [Number of L i t e r a t e s p e r 1000 Persons]  Year  it  following  R a t e s of  ALL  It  i n the  in and  indicate that  i n S r i Lanka as  that  literacy literacy  female 1971. female  while  have been w h i c h has  literacy  During  the  literacy  literacy  is  substantial  rate  achieved, been most increased  same p e r i o d , decreased  lower  a whole, a l t h o u g h an  in  the  by  over  the  dry  examination  of  N a t i o n a l f i g u r e s were o b t a i n e d f r o m Census of Population, 1971, Sri L a n k a , T a b l e 8.2, ' L i t e r a c y R a t e s of t h e Population Aged 10 y e a r s o r o l d e r (Number of L i t e r a t e s p e r 1000 Persons). Literacy rates for the d r y zone were c a l c u l a t e d f r o m c e n s u s d a t a . I t s h o u l d be n o t e d t h a t t h e 1946, 1953 and 1963 d r y zone figures r e p r e s e n t l i t e r a c y f o r t h e p o p u l a t i o n aged 5 y e a r s and o l d e r . I t was not p o s s i b l e t o c a l c u l a t e the literacy of the population aged 10 and o l d e r i n t h e d r y zone f o r t h e s e y e a r s from p u b l i s h e d c e n s u s m a t e r i a l , due t o l a c k of information on age s t r u c t u r e and literacy. 2 8  16  literacy cases,  levels both  national  generally  declines is  true  and  i n some  Kurunegala The  points  male  figure  (863,792),  for individual female dry  reveals  literacy  zone  is  districts;  (880,740) and P u t t a l a m  relation  between  c o n s i d e r e d t o be  out, there i s often to mortality  districts  positive,  3 0  notably  and  Jaffna 2  9  fertility as  some  than the  (880,791).  although  Chart  in  higher  "a l a g i n t h e r e s p o n s e  declines".  for S r i Lanka.  mortality  that  is  Yotopoulos of  4 indicates  fertility that  this  3 1  See C e n s u s o f P o p u l a t i o n , 1971, S r i L a n k a , T a b l e 8.5, ' L i t e r a c y R a t e s o f t h e P o p u l a t i o n Aged 10 y e a r s and over by D i s t r i c t s 1963 a n d 1971', p.116. 2 9  3 0  Y o t o p o u l o s , Op. C i t . , p.42  D e p a r t m e n t o f Census and S t a t i s t i c s , 1971, S r i L a n k a " , C h a r t 2.3, ' V a r i a t i o n s R a t e s , 1871 t o 1971 , p.23 3 1  "Census o f P o p u l a t i o n , i n t h e B i r t h and D e a t h  17  C h a r t  RfcTE  4 :  PER  V a r i a t i o n s i n B i r t h i n S r i L a n k a :  lOOO  a n d D e a t h 1 8 7 1 - 1 9 7 1  R a t e s  PERSONS  *r> ,  ,  24  16  8  .0  1871 1081  1301  l891  1901  1911  1091  1901  1911  1921  •^^^B^BM  S r i  BIRTH  L a n k a ' s  1 9 4 9 .  T h e  a n d  t h e  S . A . M o r t a l i t y p . 2 0 7 3 2  I «*  i n f a n t 8 7  i n f a n t  1905  11  194;  RATE  c r u d e  1 9 4 6 , f e l l t o  1921 1931  193)  DEATH  d e a t h  r a t e  m o r t a l i t y p e r  1 0 0 0 i n  m o r t a l i t y  M e e g a m a , L e v e l s " ,  f e l l  f r o m  r a t e ,  w h i c h  19 4 9 .  32  r a t e  2 0 . 3 w a s  B o t h  w e r e  t h e  h a l v e d  19&3  1971  DATE  i n  1 9 4 6  1 4 1  p e r  t o  1 2 . 6  t h o u s a n d  c r u d e d e a t h d u r i n g  " M a l a r i a E r a d i c a t i o n a n d i t s i n P o p u l a t i o n S t u d i e s , N o . 2 1 ,  I n t e r n a t i o n a l S t a t i s t i c a l I n s t i t u t e , " T h e F e r t i l i t y S u r v e y , 1 9 7 5 , A s u m m a r y o fF i n d i n g s " , (Netherlands), 1 978, p. 1 3 3  1953 1963  t h e  i n i n  r a t e p e r i o d  E f f e c to n N o v . 1 9 6 7 ,  S r i L a n k a V o o r b u r g  18  from  1946  to  i960.  introduction  of  T h e s e a c h i e v e m e n t s were l a r g e l y due  3 3  successful malaria  1940's and  the  districts,  crude death  thousand  just  measures i n between  expansion  prior  1946.  9 and  By  17 p e r  c o n t r o l measures  of h e a l t h  s e r v i c e s . " In 3  r a t e s were as to  1950,  the  death  in these  " See, f o r i n s t a n c e , S.A. Meegama, Op. "Malaria Eradication and i t s Effect Comment", i n P o p u l a t i o n S t u d i e s , No.23, Gray, "The Decline of Mortality in S t u d i e s , V o l . X X V I I I , No.2, 1974. 3  3 5  B.H.  F a r m e r , Op.  as  C i t . , pp.20-22  rates  late  some d r y  zone  35  or  had  districts.  the  i n the  i n t r o d u c t i o n of m a l a r i a  crude  thousand  high  to  40  per  control  fallen  to  3 5  C i t . ; Peter Newman, on M o r t a l i t y L e v e l s : A 1979, Part II; R.H. Ceylon", in Population  19  C h a r t  5  a n d  t h r e e  t o  1 9 7 1 ,  C h a r t  i l l u s t r a t e s r e g i o n s 3  t h e  d r y  i n  c r u d e  z o n e  d e a t h  d u r i n g  r a t e s  t h e  f o r  p e r i o d  S r i  L a n k a  f r o m  1 9 4 6  6  5 : i  o f  t r e n d s  1  C r u d e D e a t h R a t e s i n S r i L a n k a a n d S e l e c t e d R e g i o n s o f t h e D r y Z o n e : 1 9 4 6 - 1 9 7 1 1  1  r  i  i  i  _l  r  !  j  j  ,  ,  ,  e — — oo y —  1946.0  Rll Ceylon *• Northern Province « N. Central Province *X Eastern Province  1948.0  1950.0  T h e r e  1952.0  a r e  I954J0  1956.0  a l s o  1958.0 Ypar  some  1960.0  1962.0  p r a c t i c a l  D a t a f o r t h e p e r i o d f r o m 1 9 4 6 t o A b a y a r a t n e a n d J a y a w a r d e n e , O p . C i t . S e e R a t e s b y D i s t r i c t s 1 9 0 0 - 1 9 6 0 ' , p p . 6 9 - 7 3 . f o r t h e p e r i o d f r o m 1 9 6 1 t o 1 9 7 1 w e r e o b A b s t r a c t o f S r i L a n k a , 1 9 7 3 . F i g u r e s f r e g i o n s f o r t h e p e r i o d f r o m 1 9 6 5 t o 1 9 7 1 T a b l e 3 5 , ' D e a t h s i n S r i L a n k a - B y D ' E s t i m a t e d M i d - Y e a r P o p u l a t i o n- B y D i A b s t r a c t o f S r i L a n k a , 1 9 7 5 . 3  6  1964.0  1966.0  r e a s o n s  1968.0  f o r  1970.0  s e l e c t i n g  1 9 6 0 w e r e o b t a i n e d f r o m T a b l e 2 4 , ' C r u d e D e a t h A l l S r i L a n k a f i g u r e s t a i n e d f r o m S t a t i s t i c a l o r t h e t h r e e d r y z o n e w e r e c a l c u l a t e d f r o m i s t r i c t ' , a n d T a b l e 1 0 , s t r i c t ' i n S t a t i s t i c a l  20  Sri good 1946  L a n k a ' s d r y zone as t h e a r e a statistical  information  t o 1971. S e c o n d , a number  of  study.  i s available  S r i L a n k a and t h e d r y zone w h i c h f o c u s  of  direct  qualitative  information  here,  and  a  can t h e r e f o r e  been  obtained.  from  conducted  on s u b j e c t s  considerable be  relatively  f o r the p e r i o d  o f s t u d i e s have  in  relevance  First,  that are  amount  of  21  Chapter II 1. I n t r o d u c t i o n Diagram theoretical into  the  fertility  II  is  a  truncated  v e r s i o n of Y o t o p o u l o s '  frame and p r o v i d e s a d e q u a t e s c o p e relation  between  agricultural  for  an  inquiry  development  and  i n t h e d r y zone o f S r i L a n k a : Diagram II Modified  C o n c e p t u a l Frame  AGRICULTURAL  INTERMEDIATE  DEVELOPMENT  VARIABLES  FERTILITY  Muslin Population^  ^  Fertility ^7  Major I r r i g a t i o n  Farm Management Practices Size of A g r i c u l t u r a l Holdings  22  Relationships  depicted  i n Diagram  of h y p o t h e s e s ,  many of  w h i c h have been  Yotopoulos.  Some of  the  3 7  have been f o r m u l a t e d which or  deal  the  basis  formulated  on  R e s e a r c h and  briefly  of  findings  concerning  i n S r i Lanka. For  involve  basis  Training  instance,  studies  Institute  most of  which  explore  to present  i n d i v i d u a l hypotheses which underly f o r the  statistical  by  diagram  case  the  studies  hypotheses have  c o n d u c t e d by  I t i s the  3 8  the  variables  i n the  a basis  zone.  number  summarized  in  situation'  provide  dry  of  a  a g r i c u l t u r a l development  agriculture-specific the  reflect  hypotheses which underly  with questions  fertility  which  on  II  the  Agrarian  the  p u r p o s e of  'agrarian  this  Diagram  model p r e s e n t e d  been  chapter II  and  i n the  next  chapter. According directly cultural All are  of  influenced  by  age  f a c t o r s , income, and  these v a r i a b l e s , with directly  development.  3 7  to Diagram  3 9  or  i n the  dry  zone  is  of m a r r i a g e , m o r t a l i t y ,  literacy,  size  holdings.  the  indirectly  Hypothetical  Y o t o p o u l o s , Op.  II, f e r t i l i t y  of  agricultural  exception  of  influenced  relations  cultural by  depicted  factors,  agricultural i n diagram  II  Cit.  See "The A g r a r i a n S i t u a t i o n R e l a t i n g t o Paddy C u l t i v a t i o n i n Five Selected Districts o f S r i L a n k a " , A g r a r i a n R e s e a r c h and T r a i n i n g I n s t i t u t e , P t s . I l l , I V , and V, Colombo, 1975. 3 8  Note t h a t a t t h i s p o i n t , the discussion is in terms of variables and not i n d i c a t o r s . The subject of statistical i n d i c a t o r s , and why some i n d i c a t o r s were s e l e c t e d o v e r others, is dealt with in chapter I I I . 3 9  23  are  dealt  with  Supporting  individually  evidence  from  under  a  number  cross-national  of  and c a s e  headings. studies i s  provided. 2. Age a t M a r r i a g e a n d F e r t i l i t y Rising it  reduces  age a t m a r r i a g e  exposure  to  sexual  number o f a woman's c h i l d b e a r i n g studies  indicate  association countries"." postponed  with  completed  least  interesting  that  and  marriage  age  of marriage  there  might  in  estimates  that  if a  age  high-fertility  18  conception w i l l  marriage  due  for  to believe  be t h e p r i m a r y c a u s e from  females  that  of f e r t i l i t y  1960 t o 1 9 7 0 .  to  is  school  be a v e r t e d . '  three years during the period  i s good r e a s o n  empirical  has t h e c l o s e s t  size  one  Lanka d u r i n g t h e p e r i o d  3. M o r t a l i t y  of  family  to  since  and reduces the  y e a r s . A number  t h e mean age a t m a r r i a g e  r o s e by a l m o s t  fertility  intercourse  t h r e e y e a r s from age 15 at  1971,  "the  Yotopoulos  0  attendance  Lanka  that  can i n f l u e n c e  1  It i s  in Sri  from  1950 t o  rising  age a t  decline  in S r i  4 2  and F e r t i l i t y  The  notion that  mortality  4 0  Y o t o p o u l o s , Op. C i t . , p.28  4 1  I b i d . , p.28  i s linked  with f e r t i l i t y i s  International Statistical Institute, Op. C i t . , p . 1 ; W. Parker Maudlin, " P a t t e r n s of F e r t i l i t y D e c l i n e i n Developing Countries,1950-1975", in F e r t i l i t y D e c l i n e i n Less Developed C o u n t r i e s , N i c k E b e r s t a d t ( e d . ) , Op. C i t . , p.89 4 2  24  central  to  the  Yotopoulos'  work  concerned,  it  child  child  fertility, reasons child need of of  of  demographic  is loosely based. i s evident  mortality It  and  theory  t o be  that  mortality parents  5  are  there The  can to  by  replacement  which  fertility  Yotopoulos considers  some  classical  insure  high  associated is  lead  that  infant  the  i s that  fertility  s u r v i v a l of  means  hypotheses:"  of  the  of  high  disagreement  view  to high  levels  with  is and  infant  levels as  high due  some  c h i l d r e n d e s i r e d . More r e c e n t l y , a n a l y s t s  phenomenom  as  upon  crucial.""  mortality  for t h i s . "  Insofar  0 3  i s generally accepted  although  transition,  to  the  infant  and  to a  minimum  supposed number  have e x p l a i n e d  child-survival  of  and  the  child-  6  "The f o r m e r r e l a t e s t o p a r e n t ' s perceptions of m o r t a l i t y conditions in their social setting; the belief that children will s u r v i v e to adult-hood is assumed to be prerequisite for acceptance of f e r t i l i t y r e g u l a t i o n . . . t h e l a t t e r r e l a t e s to parent's responses to m o r t a l i t y incidence in their own family; when a child dies, i t is  "  3  This  theory  is briefly  "" Y o t o p o u l o s , Op.  reviewed  in chapter  I.  C i t . , pp.41-42  F o r a d i s c u s s i o n of t h e i d e a s r e l e v a n t t o t h i s s u b j e c t , see Samual Preston, The E f f e c t s of I n f a n t and C h i l d M o r t a l i t y on Fertility, Academic Press, I n c . , New Y o r k , 1978, pp.1-5, who a l s o p r o v i d e s an h i s t o r i c a l b i b l i o g r a p h y . 4 5  * S u s a n C M . S c r i m s h a w , " I n f a n t M o r t a l i t y and B e h a v i o r Regulation of Family Size", in F e r t i l i t y Decline d e v e l o p e d C o u n t r i e s , Op. C i t . , p.296 6  in the in Less  25  hypothesized, a couple w i l l q u i c k l y as p o s s i b l e . " It  has  product risks.  been  4 7  I t i s equally  explain fertility suggests  in  observed terms  that  longer  however,  of  4 9  post-partum  notions that  of  child-replacement  behavioral mechanisms  between mechanisms. might  birth intervals:  amenorrhea  i s the  mortality phenomenom  parents.  4 8  hypotheses  mortality Recent  be e q u a l l y  Proponents of t h e b i o l o g i c a l lactational  of  the  on t h e p a r t  association  biological  important. that  likely,  c h i l d - s u r v i v a l and  the  i t as  the c h i l d - s u r v i v a l response  conscious decision-making The  out  that  of s u b - c o n s c i o u s and u n v e r b a l i z e d  reflects  more  suggested  replace  and work  i f not  approach  point  i s associated  with  5 0  Taylor draws this conclusion because only 8% o f t h e r e s p o n d e n t s i n a s t u d y he c o n d u c t e d i n d i c a t e d that they took mortality risk into consideration when making family size d e c i s i o n s . See C a r l E . T a y l o r , J e a n n e S. Newman, and N a r i n d e r U. Kelly, "The C h i l d Survival Hypothesis", in Population S t u d i e s , V o l . 3 0 , No.2, J u l y 1976, p.266. 4 7  Heer and Smith suggest t h a t p a r e n t s i n T h i r d World c o u n t r i e s will have c h i l d r e n u n t i l t h e y c a n be 95% c e r t a i n t h a t a t l e a s t one s o n w i l l s u r v i v e u n t i l t h e f a t h e r r e a c h e s t h e age o f 65. See D a v i d M. Heer a n d Dean 0. S m i t h , " M o r t a l i t y L e v e l s , D e s i r e d Family Size, and P o p u l a t i o n I n c r e a s e " , i n Demography, V o l . 5 , No.1, 1968, p.107 4 8  A.K.M. A l a u d d i n Chowdhury e t . a l . , " E x p e r i e n c e i n Pakistan and Bangladesh", i n Samuel H. P r e s t o n ( e d . ) , The E f f e c t s o f I n f a n t a n d C h i l d M o r t a l i t y on F e r t i l i t y , A c a d e m i c P r e s s , I n c . , New Y o r k , 1978, p.129 4 9  5 0  I b i d . , p.116  26  A b i r t h i n t e r v a l i s s i m p l y t h e t i m e between successive births. After a pregnancy t e r m i n a t i o n a woman t y p i c a l l y e x p e r i e n c e s a period of temporary sterility, characterized by p o s t - p a r t u m amenorrhea. With the onset of post-partum menses a n d ovulation, t h e woman a g a i n becomes a t r i s k to pregnancy...The length o f an a v e r a g e b i r t h i n t e r v a l i s important because i t i s a d i r e c t measure o f f e r t i l i t y ; l o n g i n t e r v a l s are a s s o c i a t e d w i t h low f e r t i l i t y a n d v i c e versa. Infant  death  onset  of  r e s u l t s i n the i n t e r r u p t i o n of l a c t a t i o n  menstrual  contraceptive shortened. rates  measures, b i r t h  evidence that during  that  i f such  a  birth  intervals will  intervals  crude b i r t h  State  arising  means t h a t ,  The c o r o l l a r y t o t h i s  5 1  decline,  extension  c y c l e s . This  the period a  from  that,  have  d i doccur,  significantly  as  infant  5 2  i s some  in  Caldwell  of the i n t e r v a l  o f t h e number o f p e r i o d s  There  death  Mysore  suggests  i t was due " s o l e l y t o an  from d e c l i n i n g i n f a n t and c h i l d  reduction  be  declined  1921 t o 1 9 4 1 .  length  i n the absence of  become l o n g e r .  r a t e s may  decline  of the average  is  and t h e  between  mortality  births  and hence t o  of b r e a s t f e e d i n g  cut short  A.K.M. A l a u d d i n Chowdhury e t . a l . report that birth intervals were shortened, on a v e r a g e , by 13.1 months i n B a n g l a d e s h d u r i n g t h e p e r i o d o f t h e i r s t u d y . I b i d . , pp.126-127. Cantrelle, Ferry, a n d Mondot f i n d s i m i l a r trends i n various A f r i c a n c o u n t r i e s . P. C a n t r e l l e , B. F e r r y , a n d J . Mondot, "Relationship between Fertility and M o r t a l i t y in Tropical A f r i c a " , i n I b i d . , p.116. B o t h s t u d i e s report that t h e mean length o f p o s t - p a r t u m a m e n o r r h e a i s a b o u t 60 d a y s i n t h e c a s e of women who do n o t b r e a s t f e e d . 5 1  See K i n g s l e y D a v i s , The P o p u l a t i o n o f I n d i a P r i n c e t o n U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , P r i n c e t o n , 1951 5 2  and P a k i s t a n ,  27  by  the  d e a t h of The  biological  a  child".  relative  theories  Unfortunately, biological  and  explanatory no  i t is  often  behavioral  empirically. '  relative  p r e d i c t i v e value  5  in  this  not  e s s e n t i a l t o do of  study,  4.  No  1  of  to lack  so,  since  attempt  is  made  behavioral  and  another.  to  assess  biological  i t is generally  or  accepted will  biological  the  mortality  be  on the  theories  of q u a l i t a t i v e i n f o r m a t i o n .  fertility  and  differentiate  infant  whether b e h a v i o r a l  and  case to  of  of  Education  to  behavioral  effects  i n f a n t m o r t a l i t y on  operative.  of  from one  impossible  high  regardless most  due  value  doubt v a r i e s  fertility  effect  5 3  It i s  that  the  positive,  mechanisms  are  5 5  Fertility  Education  has  consistently  been  one  of  the  best  J o h n C. C a l d w e l l , P.H. Reddy, and Pat C a l d w e l l , "The Causes of Demographic Change i n R u r a l S o u t h I n d i a " , i n P o p u l a t i o n and D e v e l o p m e n t Review, V o l . 8 . , No.4, Dec, 1982 5 3  * T h i s i s due t o p r o b l e m s i n m o d e l l i n g , as w e l l as t o l a c k of data. See Chowdhury e t . a l . , Op. C i t . , p.114. F o r a d e t a i l e d d i s c u s s i o n of p r o b l e m s i n m o d e l l i n g t h e s e e f f e c t s , see T. Paul Schultz,"Interrelationships Between M o r t a l i t y and F e r t i l i t y " , in P o p u l a t i o n and D e v e l o p m e n t : The S e a r c h f o r S e l e c t i v e Interventions, Ronald G~. R i d k e r (ed.), The Johns Hopkins U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , B a l i t m o r e , 1976, pp.255-263. 5  T. P a u l S c h u l t z , Op. C i t . , p.288. I t i s of interest that fertility increased suddenly in d i s t r i c t s which experienced r a p i d m o r t a l i t y d e c l i n e f o l l o w i n g the i n t r o d u c t i o n of malaria control. T h i s s u g g e s t s t h a t the c h i l d - s u r v i v a l r e s p o n s e was i n o p e r a t i o n p r i o r t o m a l a r i a c o n t r o l , and t h a t t h e r e was a l a g i n t h e a d j u s t m e n t o f t h e r e s p o n s e t o a c o n d i t i o n of low m o r t a l i t y . See R.H. G r a y , Op. C i t . , p.227. 5 5  28  predictors  of  low f e r t i l i t y .  and  have w i d e r a c c e s s  to  'modern'  aspirations tends  to  children. strong family is and  may  employment, Education  desirability shown  on t r a d i t i o n a l as l e v e l s  probability  that  they  of formal  that couples  are  formal  and  has  increase,  desire small  there  families  contraception.  fertility  o f s e v e r a l mechanisms, e i t h e r  singly  or i n combination,  suggested fertility, levels  that high due  of c h i l d  to  supposed  links  c a r e , and i n f a n t  Pan A. Y o t o p o u l o s ,  5 7  I b i d . , p.164  Ibid., Jayewardene, Apothecaries'  to  female e d u c a t i o n  5 6  5 8  crucial  fertility.  6 0  5 9  by v i r t u e o f  It  has t h e e f f e c t between f e m a l e  and c h i l d  a  f a m i l y s i z e and  affect  particularly  this  l a r g e numbers o f schooling  schooling  to practice  exposed  can  be  education  of having  will  educated  generally increases  a t t i t u d e s toward  be f a v o u r a b l y d i s p o s e d Female  any  the  I t h a s been  planning;  will  5 7  become more  f o r upward m o b i l i t y a n d m a t e r i a l w e a l t h ,  effect  a higher  to salaried  i d e a s and v a l u e s .  reduce 5 8  As p e o p l e  5 6  has  and been  of lowering education,  m o r t a l i t y . Women who  Op. C i t . , p.32  pp.160-161; O.E.R. Abhayaratne and F e r t i l i t y Trends i n Ceylon, The Co., L t d . , Colombo, 1967, pp.319-335  C.H.S. Colombo  Donald B. H o l s i n g e r a n d J o h n D. K a s a r d a , " E d u c a t i o n and Human Fertility: Sociological Perspectives", i n Ronald G. R i d k e r ( e d . ) , Op. C i t . , p.166; R e p e t t o , Op. C i t . , p.93 5 9  6 0  Yotopoulos,  Op. C i t . , p.33  29  a r e more  highly  factors wider  affecting  t o buy  formal  education  health,  since  nutrition, against  but  and  6 1  improved  6 2  as  Holsinger  This  vitally  and  parents  source  K a s a r d a , Op.  children infant adequate  immunization  true with of  respect infant  Evidence  to and  cross-  r e l a t i o n s h i p between  female  i n the  Cit.,  to  from  6 3  i s negative,  important  of  natural  cause  countries.  and  benefits  a  major  the  the  among f a m i l i e s where  is particularly  suggests that  "in  (hence)...infant  greatly  provides  a  have  i s more l i k e l y  disease  much l o w e r  it  may  of  s a n i t a r y . c o n d i t i o n s , and  provides  which are  breastfeeding  services:  t h a n where t h e  only  cognizant  o f f s p r i n g , and  citizen  c o n t r o l of  in developing  education be  not  more  to, medical  Breastfeeding  6 1  diseases,  studies  their  schooled  under  a l s o because  mortality  not  the  f o r the  it  national  may  access  i s present  disease.  intestinal  generally  m o r t a l i t y rates are  unschooled".  child  live  antibiotics  child  are  to  are  h e a l t h of  countries  immunized,  and  the  knowledge o f , and  less developed be  educated  although  case  of  breastfeeding higher  socio-  p.163  For comment on the advantages of breastfeeding for n u t r i t i o n , see R.N. G r o s s , " I n t e r r e l a t i o n Between Health and Population:Observations from D e r i v e d from F i e l d Experiences", in S o c i a l S c i e n c e and M e d i c i n e , Vol.14C, No.2, June 1980, p.104, and R u t h R i c e P u f f e r and C a r l o s V. S e r r a n o , " P a t t e r n s of Mortality in Childhood", Pan A m e r i c a n H e a l t h O r g a n i z a t i o n , World H e a l t h O r g a n i z a t i o n , Washington D.C, 1973, pp.267-271. For a discussion of the i m m u n o l o g i c a l mechanisms a s s o c i a t e d with breastfeeding see Gross, pp.104-105, and Puffer and S e r r a n o , p.265. 6 2  6 3  See  P u f f e r and  Serrano,  Op.  C i t . , p.264.  30  economic  groups. "  characteristic strong the  This  6  pattern  i s not n e c e s s a r i l y  o f S r i Lanka however, where t h e r e  and p o s i t i v e  incidence  duration  general  a s s o c i a t i o n s between  of  breastfeeding,  of b r e a s t f e e d i n g :  i s evidence of  female  and f e m a l e  literacy  literacy  and  and t h e  6 5  ...more e d u c a t e d women a r e more likely to ever breastfeed (and)... those who do breastfeed a r e more likely to continue breastfeeding t o recommended a g e s i f t h e y a r e more e d u c a t e d . More e d u c a t e d women i n Sri Lanka thus appear t o b e t t e r u n d e r s t a n d t h e v a l u e o f b r e a s t f e e d i n g f o r f i v e o r more months o f t h e i n f a n t ' s l i f e . Education  also  affects  fertility  a v e r a g e age o f f e m a l e s a t m a r r i a g e . defer been  marriage while shown  born.  It  6 7  fertility due  6ft  this  has  declines  to  factor".  that  Ibid.,  Evidence  school  reduces  been  the  determined,  i n Kerala,  increased 6 8  i n high  6 6  that  school that  Men a n d  raising  women  and u n i v e r s i t y , number with  of  age  was...a  age a t m a r r i a g e  the  typically and i t has  children  respect  "increased  attendance  rising  by  to at  ever recent  marriage  significant  i s the  primary  p.264  J o h n A k i n e t . a l . , "The D e t e r m i n a n t s o f B r e a s t f e e d i n g L a n k a " , i n Demography, V o l . 1 8 , No.3, 1981, p.159 6 5  in Sri  See Pan A. Y o t o p o u l o s , Op. C i t . , p.32, a n d H o l s i n g e r a n d K a s a r d a , Op. C i t . , p.159. 6 6  6 7  Holsinger  a n d K a s a r d a , Op. C i t . , p.159  6 8  See Y o t o p o u l o s , Op. C i t . ,  p.33.  31  cause 1960 is  of f e r t i l i t y  decline  t o 1970 h a s a l r e a d y  almost  due t o i n c r e a s e d  Several  studies  Increases  between  participation  concludes:  have a l a r g e e f f e c t wages  and  association is  society. between  between using  which  both  by and  in 7 1  the the  data  to greater  Kasarda,  from  of females  turn  who  49  has  had  a  countries  was f o u n d t o employed  for  strong negative  A c c o r d i n g t o Kasarda,  fertility  o p p o r t u n i t i e s o f women t o o b t a i n economic  and f e r t i l i t y  role  of  "Census o f P o p u l a t i o n 1971, Summary C e n s u s a n d S t a t i s t i c s , 1978, p.154  women  in  t h e r e i s no r e l a t i o n  i n S r i Lanka:  be a d i s a p p o i n t m e n t t o some r e a d e r s t o o b s e r v e t h a t  6 9  7 0  female e d u c a t i o n , female  However, t h e r e i s e v i d e n c e t h a t  f e m a l e employment  6 9  fertility.  of e d u c a t i o n i n e a c h n a t i o n  with f e r t i l i t y " .  employment 7 2  and  e d u c a t i o n can l e a d  on t h e p r o p o r t i o n  salaries,  influenced  salaried  of female  fertility  "The l e v e l  from  t h e r e i s an i n v e r s e  employment  relationships  and  the p e r i o d  enrolment.  o f women i n t h e w o r k f o r c e . As  the  employment,  school  have shown t h a t  female  i n the l e v e l  during  been d i s c u s s e d . H i g h e r age a t m a r r i a g e  entirely  relationship  analyzed  i n S r i Lanka  Report",  "It will  women  who  Department o f  F o r a summary o f t h e s e , s e e John D. K a s a r d a , "Economic Structure and Fertility: A Comparative Analysis," in Demography, V o l . 8 , No.3, A u g . 1971, pp.308-309 7 0  7 1  Cited  from H o s i n g e r and K a s a r d a , Op. C i t . , p.161.  7 2  K a s a r d a , Op. C i t . ,  p.314  32  work  during  their  lower  fertility".  7 3  first  y e a r s o f m a r r i a g e do n o t seem t o have  While  there i s evidence that  work b e f o r e m a r r i a g e women  who  estate  workers  employed  exhibit  do n o t , t h i s living  f o r wages  trend  the  number o f women employed education  is  employment  and f e r t i l i t y  analysis  slightly  lower  i s really  only c h a r a c t e r i s t i c of  i n t h e wet z o n e . in  in  in this Women  study.  7 4  d r y zone  7 5  which  The r e l a t i o n  n o t be s u b j e c t e d  One  result  of t h i s  i s that  can  shift,  so t h a t  women have more i n p u t  fertility.  7 3  International  7 4  I b i d . , p.91  females  small,  and t h e  require  higher  between to  female  statistical  who a r e e d u c a t e d o r who have o b t a i n e d  t e n d t o be more i n d e p e n d e n t  affect  than  7 6  employment  which  fertility  The number o f i s quite  positions  almost n e g l i g i b l e . will  some women who  7 7  salaried  than t h e i r c o u n t e r p a r t s .  t h e b a l a n c e o f power w i t h i n  Fertility  Statistical  into marital  surveys indicate  Institute,  Op. C i t . ,  marriage decisions  that  women  p.91  F o r i n s t a n c e , i n A n u r a d h a p u r a D i s t r i c t o n l y 1.1% o f f e m a l e s employed a r e e m p l o y e d a s p r o f e s s i o n a l , technical and related workers. 7 5  The c o r r e l a t i o n between f e m a l e s employed a n d t h e f e r t i l i t y i n d i c a t o r used i n t h e study (GFR) i s n e g a t i v e a s m i g h t be e x p e c t e d , b u t v e r y weak (-.29). 7 6  7 7  E b e r s t a d t , Op. C i t . , pp.58-59  33  generally  desire  facilitates techniques.  smaller  the 7  traditional  is  and of  period.  that  childbearing  other,  to limit  1950,  probably  beliefs  that  family  of  also  contraceptive  which  a  breakdown  s i z e and f a m i l y the period  be a s s o c i a t e d  with  occurred  most v i l l a g e  in  planning  from  1950 t o  increases during  in the  the  women p r o b a b l y  i n a l t e r a b l e f a t e . Even  the s i z e of t h e i r  same  regarded  i f they might  f a m i l i e s by one  have  means  or  would n o t have done so b e c a u s e o f t h e i r  and t h e i r  desire  to avoid  t h e a t t i t u d e s o f most  contraceptive  might  toward  education to  suggests that of  Education  7 8  knowledge  evidence  t h i s might  as t h e i r  they  religious  of  i n S r i Lanka d u r i n g  female Prior  preferred  some  attitudes  may have o c c u r r e d  level  diffusion  men.  9  There  1970,  f a m i l i e s than  devices,  during  be summarized a s f o l l o w s :  rural  social  stigma.  women t o w a r d  Ryan  the use  t h e 1940's a n d e a r l y  1950's,  8 0  If a dead 'soul' w i s h e s t o be b o r n i n t o y o u r f a m i l y , i t w o u l d be a t e r r i b l e s i n t o prevent i t s birth. We w i l l pay f o r s u c h a c t s i n our next l i f e . C h i l d r e n t h a t a r e t o be b o r n t o y o u must be a l l o w e d t o be born. That i s how life goes o n . We c a n n o t a n d should not prevent t h i s . Ryan's  interviews  Buddhism  was  were c o n d u c t e d  the  dominant  7 8  I b i d . , p.58  7 9  R e p e t t o , Op. C i t . , p.85  in  Sinhalese  religion.  Whether  villages such  Bryce Ryan, I n s t i t u t i o n a l Factors i n Sinhalese M i l b a n k M e m o r i a l Fund Q u a r t e r l y , V o l . 3 0 , p.371, 1952 8 0  where  attitudes  Fertility,  34  might  have been common among H i n d u s ,  doctrine  of  t r a n s m i g r a t i o n of s o u l s ,  s t u d y . D r . G.P. Buddhist  while it  Malalasekera,  Congress,  contraceptive  techniques  was i n t h e n a t i o n a l  family  beliefs  had  Ryan d i d f i n d to  limit  the s i z e  and  moral  way o f d o i n g  stated:  the  i n 1968.  encouraged  ceased  from  He  Ryan's  A l l Ceylon  the  use  noted  the b i r t h  to control  largely  p l a n n i n g by 1 9 7 0 .  of  sanctioned  by B u d d h i s t s  interest  subscribe to the  i s not c l e a r  President  officially  Buddhism t r a d i t i o n a l l y  Religious  who a l s o  of that  of c h i l d r e n ,  population  growth.  8 1  t o be an o b s t r u c t i o n t o  8 2  some e v i d e n c e  of t h e i r  families  s o . As  one  that  women  i f they married  might  prefer  knew o f a d i s c r e e t female  respondent  8 3  We consider i t a m i s f o r t u n e t o have t o o many children. Provided one i s not destroying life she i s q u i t e j u s t i f i e d i n preventing pregnancy. Women would be thankful i f they knew of such a d e v i c e ( b i r t h c o n t r o l ) f o r although they dare not confess i t i n p u b l i c , i n d i v i d u a l l y women would n o t l i k e t o have more than three children.  Mary Bishop, From L e f t t o R i g h t : A P e r s p e c t i v e on t h e R o l e of t h e V o l u n t e e r s i n F a m i l y P l a n n i n g i n t h e West and i n S o u t h A s i a , M a s t e r s T h e s i s , U n i v e r s i t y o f B.C., 1971, p.181 8 1  I b i d . , p.178. A t l e a s t t h i s was p r o b a b l y t r u e f o r B u d d h i s t s and Hindus. Abhayaratne a n d J a y e w a r d e n e f o u n d t h a t "a l a r g e p r o p o r t i o n o f p e r s o n s o p p o s e d t o f a m i l y p l a n n i n g was o p p o s e d t o i t because they thought i t contravened religious principles" when they conducted t h e i r s t u d y i n 1965. See A b h a y a r a t n e a n d J a y e w a r d e n e , Op. C i t . , p.282. 8 2  3  Ryan, Op. C i t . ,  p.371  35  However,  regardless  planning matter  might of  obedient well sexual  what  have b e e n ,  fertility  subservient to t h e i r  other  matters. "  As  8  a u t h o r i t y i s t h e most  understanding families  women's a t t i t u d e s t o w a r d decisions  male p r e r o g a t i v e . M a r r i e d  and  as  of  of  fertility".  husbands, both Ryan  Men  f o r a number of c u l t u r a l  largely  women were e x p e c t e d  important 8 5  were  family  suggests: single  sexual  "The  be as  husband's  element  were d i s p o s e d reasons:  in  to  a  for  t o have  an  large  8 6  Men sincerely want large families, and especially many sons: children are prosperity. Not once in the extensive discussions with village men was t h e r e a m e n t i o n of t h e b u r d e n of c h i l d c a r e and the difficulties of rearing. The personal t r i a l s and b u r d e n s of p a r e n t h o o d a r e a l m o s t wholly the mother's. F a t h e r i s proud parent toward his neighbours, a caresser of i n f a n t s i n t h e home, and c o n t r i b u t e r t o h i s kin status through well-calculated marriages. He i s s e r v e d by h i s h o u s e h o l d , and the larger his small kingdom the greater his dignity and glory. Through c h i l d r e n , e s p e c i a l l y s o n s , he g a i n s status as a man, is assured that his r e s p o n s i b i l i e s w i l l be i n h e r i t e d by others and that he h i m s e l f w i l l have s e c u r i t y i n old age.  There  is  some  determination  evidence had  Ibid.,  pp.375-377  5  Ibid.,  p.372  6  Ibid.,  p.373  8 4  that  increased  levels by  1970,  of and  feminine  self-  t h a t women had  more  36  influence the  over  theory  planning  as  their  that the  own  fertility.  women  level  might  of t h e i r  A b h a y a r a t n e and Lanka, leads  education  This  8 7  have  more  education  is  consistent input  to a d e s i r e for small  families:  family  increases.  J a y e w a r d e n e have shown  increases aspirations  into  with  that  for social  in  Sri  mobility  and  8 8  The most p o t e n t f a c t o r c o n t r o l l i n g t h e use of contraceptives appears to be the a t t i t u d e of t h e p a r e n t s t o the future of their children...Those who had specific p l a n s f o r t h e i r c h i l d r e n - what occupation they should do in later l i f e - had t h e lowest f e r t i l i t y while those who had no such plans had the highest...In short, t h o s e who were f u t u r e o r i e n t e d , who planned f o r t h e f u t u r e of t h e i r c i l d r e n , were the p e o p l e who had t h e l o w e s t f e r t i l i t y and had used contraceptives to a c h i e v e t h i s end. T h e s e p e o p l e do n o t come mainly from the upper c l a s s e s nor do t h e y come from t h e l o w e r . They are usually educated people with a limited income, in the public service doing c l e r i c a l jobs. Their wives are also educated and employed g a i n f u l l y o u t s i d e t h e home.  This  i s c o n s i s t e n t with  with  higher  levels  numbers of c h i l d r e n 5.  Income and It  is  See  education  of h i g h  possible  Op.  A b h a y a r a t n e and  9  of  which  suggest  might  quality.  that  parents  p r e f e r t o have  small  8 9  Fertility  Mary B i s h o p ,  8 7  theories  Cit.,  that  income  p.181  J a y e w a r d e n e , Op.  H o l s i n g e r and  affects  Kasarda,  Op.  Cit.,  p.341  C i t . , pp.160-162  fertility  in  37  several  ways,  consideration disagreement might of  and  analysts  when s t u d y i n g a s t o what  be, how  higher  invariably  fertility.  the  9 0  mechanisms  take  There of  income  i s however, much the  relationship  income s h o u l d be m e a s u r e d , and whether  income  Yotopoulos  suggests  three ways:  9 2  on  fertility  is  negative  t h a t low income c a n  into  the e f f e c t  or p o s i t i v e .  inflate  fertility  9 1  in  First, p o v e r t y , t h r o u g h poor n u t r i t i o n and health, leads to higher mortality rates. Parents tend t o overcompensate f o r the expected loss of a child by higher f e r t i l i t y r a t e s . Second, poverty-'lowers t h e relative cost of c h i l d r e n , since the a m b i t i o n o f t h e p o o r i s s u r v i v a l . The cost of children a t h i g h e r l e v e l s o f income i s measured i n terms o f o p p o r t u n i t i e s f o r e g o n e and e d u c a t i o n a l expenditures. Third, the benefits from children may be h i g h e r a t l o w e r l e v e l s of l i v i n g . A c h i l d i s a s o u r c e of p l e a s u r e f o r e v e r y p a r e n t , but a poor farmer's c h i l d i s a l s o p a r t of the f a m i l y ' s working capital and a p o t e n t i a l source of prof i t .  Most w r i t e r s w o u l d a c c e p t indirectly Maternal women  9 0  by  virtue  nutrition  experience  Yotopoulos,  9 1  Ibid  p.31  9 2  Ibid  p.31  that  income  of a l i n k  affects higher  foetal levels  Op. C i t . , p.31  between  can  affect  fertility  income and n u t r i t i o n .  wastage, of f o e t a l  and  malnourished  wastage than  their  38  counterparts. babies, birth  Well  9 3  and  there  weight  is  n o u r i s h e d mothers is statistical  positively  tend  to  evidence to  associated  with  is clearly  linked  and  i n weaned  i n f a n t s and  and  influences  developing  t h e y may  the  level  countries.  elaboration. Hicksian  diseases  Since  these  considered  Becker  i n f a n t and  Yotopoulos'  9 5  micro-theory be  of  points in  the  that,  fertility  patterns,  for  young  last  two  of  death. " 9  respiratory  mortality  analysis  low  children, in  points  require  application  fertility  many  of  behavior,  together.  is generally  recognize  with  the  that  infant  child  reflect  heavier  suggest  Furthermore, m a l n u t r i t i o n intestinal  have  the  c r e d i t e d with being purpose  c h i l d r e n might  be  of  the  analyzing  v i e w e d as  both  first  to  household consumer  Rose E. Frisch, "Population, Nutrition, and Fecundity: Significance for Interpretation of Changes i n F e r t i l i t y " , i n Nick Eberstadt ( e d . ) , Op. C i t . , p.324 9 3  " F o r a d i s c u s s i o n of t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p between b i r t h w e i g h t and m o r t a l i t y , see G r o s s e , Op. C i t . , p.105, who provides crossn a t i o n a l i n f o r m a t i o n . F o r an i n d e p t h t h e o r e t i c a l d i s c u s s i o n o f t h i s s u b j e c t , see P u f f e r and S e r r a n o , Op. C i t . , c h a p t e r 3. 9  R e p e t t o , Op. C i t . , p.26; A k i n e t . a l . , Op. C i t . , p.288. F o r a broader discussion, see "Nutrition and Infection", WHO T e c h n i c a l Report S e r i e s , 314, Geneva, 1964; Jelliff, D.B. "Child Nutrition in Developing Countries", Agency f o r I n t e r n a t i o n a l Development, 1969, and M.C. Latham, " N u t r i t i o n and and Infection in National Development", in Philip H. Abelson, F o o d : P o l i t i c s ' E c o n o m i c s , N u t r i t i o n , and R e s e a r c h , American Association for the Advancement of Science, W a s h i n g t o n , D.C., 1975. 9 5  See Gary S. B e c k e r , "An Economic A n a l y s i s of F e r t i l i t y , " i n A n s l e y C o a l e (ed.) D e m o g r a p h i c and E c o n o m i c Change i n D e v e l o p e d C o u n t r i e s , U n i v e r s i t i e s - N a t i o n a l Bureau Conference Series 11, P r i n c e t o n U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , P r i n c e t o n , 1960, pp.210-211. 9 6  39  and  producer  family  goods.  income s h o u l d  invested  in children  produced  (child  According  9 6  Becker,  an i n c r e a s e  have a p o s i t i v e e f f e c t on b o t h t h e (child  quantity).  Becker's conclusion  to  with  in  amount  q u a l i t y ) a n d t h e number of c h i l d r e n Cross-national  respect  data  indicate  that  t o t h e e f f e c t of income on t h e  demand f o r c h i l d r e n m i g h t be c o r r e c t , b u t o n l y  in  the  short-  term:  9 7  The immediate e f f e c t of a r i s e i n income a t the beginning of a secular rise in a traditional subsistence-agriculture setting is to increase fertility. This i s the classic case i n economic theory of t h e e f f e c t of income on fertility, tastes in the short run remaining unchanged w h i l e people f i n d they can a f f o r d t o raise more children. The  main  fault  prediction  of long-term  it  the existence  all  assumes  in  Becker's  fertility  trends  of a s t a b l e  households; changes i n household  Cross-national effect reason  studies  o f income for  this  on is  indicate  fertility that  taste  i n s o f a r as the  i s concerned,  utility tastes  that is  theory,  over  function  that  common t o  a r e assumed  away.  9 8  the long-term, the  negative.  generally  is  9 9  One  possible  varies according  to  Julian Simon, "Income, Wealth, and T h e i r D i s t r i b u t i o n as P o l i c y T o o l s i n F e r t i l i t y C o n t r o l , " i n R o n a l d R. R i d k e r (ed.), Op. C i t . , p.53 9 7  Ibid.,  9 9  p.41; Y o t o p o l o u s , Op. C i t . , p.53  J u l i a n Simon, Op. C i t . , p.56  40  income, a s h a s been s u g g e s t e d  by  Leibenstein:  1 0 0  ...populations are divided into social s t a t u s g r o u p s t h a t have different tastes, who may t o some degree have d i f f e r e n t desires for children (but not simply b e c a u s e o f an e c o n o m i c d i f f e r e n c e ) , and who especially see t h e whole c o s t s t r u c t u r e o f t h e i r expenditures, including expenditures for children, from a v i e w p o i n t of v a s t l y d i f f e r e n t preference structures. Furthermore, c r o s s - n a t i o n a l inverse  relationship  quantity. different also is  While  1 0 1  social  reflects more  increase quantity quality,  status  if  has t o a p p l y more  income  there  negatively  quality  due  to  are  if  more  and  the  associated  an  child  fact  that  similarly,  the  with  quality  an i n c r e a s e  children  that,  in  c h i l d r e n because the  c h i l d r e n cost  show  is  exhibit different tastes, i t  t o more u n i t s ;  data  there  f a c t o r s : "an i n c r e a s e  because h i g h e r - q u a l i t y  is  child  groups  expensive  Quantitative  i n d i c a t e that  be p a r t l y  economic  expensive  is  between  t h i s may  purely  studies  in  family  a r e of  more". Sri  higher  1 0 2  Lanka,  size.  in  1 0 3  high  There i s  Harvey Leibenstein, "The E c o n o m i c Theory of Fertility D e c l i n e " , Q u a r t e r l y J o u r n a l o f E c o n o m i c s , V o l . 8 9 , 1975, p.3 1 0 0  B e c k e r and L e w i s , "On t h e I n t e r a c t i o n between Q u a n t i t y and Quality of C h i l d r e n " , J o u r n a l o f P o l i t i c a l Economy, Vol.81, No.2, P t . I I , M a r c h / A p r i l 1973, p . s 2 7 9 1 0 1  I b i d . , p.65; T h i s t h e o r y in a l l off-spring equally. be u n r e a s o n a b l e , s i n c e i t i s countries may spend more daughters. 1 0 2  1 0 3  assumes t h a t p a r e n t ' s w i l l invest I n many c a s e s , t h i s a s s u m p t i o n may known t h a t p a r e n t s in developing f o r t h e e d u c a t i o n of sons than f o r  A b h a y a r a t n e and J a y e w a r d e n e , Op. C i t . , p.296  41  however, l i t t l e should  be  the  increasingly  q u a l i t a t i v e information  c a s e . Recent  to  information  suggest  suggests  becoming a p o s i t i v e f a c t o r  in  why  that  this  poverty  fertility:  is  1 0 4  . . . i t i s a l s o c l e a r t h a t the pressures of p o v e r t y , w i t h i n c r e a s i n g f o o d s h o r t a g e s and spreading malnutrition, are themselves l e a d i n g more and more c o u p l e s t o s e a r c h f o r a more e f f e c t i v e means of limiting their families than the traditional rhythm method. There  i s a l s o evidence that  result  in  reducing 6.  Size  deferment  fertility.  unemployment  of m a r r i a g e ,  effect  of  This  is  is  high  population  income on  which  to  speculate  fertility  i s engaged  in  agriculture.  different  i n farm h o u s e h o l d s than  for  members  between  of  raising of  s i z e of  be  the  that  cost  might  on  of  accepted  the  the  often  e f f e c t of  Fertility  because  the  income  1 0 5  difficult  partly  low  w h i c h a l s o has  o f A g r i c u l t u r a l H o l d i n g s and It  and  dynamics  children  other  of  large  family  what t h e  in  the  dry  proportion It  is  planning  overall zone. of  generally  are  somewhat  i n non-farm h o u s e h o l d s ,  is generally  occupational  less for  groups.  a g r i c u l t u r a l holdings.and  The  fertility  the  farmers  since than  association tends to  be  See J o h n Rowley, "Joy, H a p p i n e s s , and a Woman's F r i e n d " , Vol.2, No.4, P e o p l e , 1975, p.16. T h i s view i s a l s o a d v a n c e d Mary B i s h o p , Op. C i t . , p.186  in by  1 0 4  B a d r u d Duza, " D e t e r m i n a n t s of M a r i t a l Postponement L a n k a " i n N u p t i a l i t y and P o p u l a t i o n P o l i c y , P o p u l a t i o n New Y o r k , 1977 1 0 5  in Sri Council,  42  positive than  because  labour  small  farms,  on  labour.  An  holdings  limit  fragmentation. on It  studies  depending  that  is of  a  that their  e c o n o m i e s w o u l d be  "the the  certain  an  on  large  ideal  farmers families  that  the  farm  linkages income.  farms  source  with  direct  of  small  to avoid  can  be  land  effect  of  countries  primary argument  farm or  holdings  to economies of to expect  (such as  size, various  size  and  negative,  It i s generally  accepted are  scale.  possible  t h a t minimum a r e a s  farm machines  farm from  between  large  reason  influences  between  positive  factors.  due  size  Evidence  relation  small holdings  p o i n t s out,  are  that  to  number of  greater  positive.  the  productivity  than  utilize  be  due  industrialized  productive  to  will  p r o d u c t i v i t y , and  upon  in  size  hypothesized  indicates  agricultural  Cline  fertility  indirectly  agricultural  children  factor  the  are  It i s hypothesized  1 0 6  is  fertility  that  and  additional  may  farm s i z e  requirements  are  tractors  more 1 0 7  As  scale  required and  self-  106 e x t e n s i v e d i s c u s s i o n of t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p between s i z e o f a g r i c u l t u r a l h o l d i n g s and fertility, see W. Whitney Hicks, "Economic Development and F e r t i l i t y Change i n M e x i c o , 1950-1970", i n Demography, V o l . 1 1 , No.3, A u g u s t 1974, pp.407421 . F  o  r  a  m  o  r  e  Doreen Warriner, 'Relation Between Land Reform and Development', in Gerald M. Meier (ed.), Leading Issues in Economic Development, O x f o r d U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , New Y o r k , 1976, pp.607-612, p.609 1 0 7  43  propelled these  combines)".  machines  capital, not  exchange  likely  priced". in a  to  custom  on  and  basis,  relevant  is  farmers  shortage  of  supply  uncertain.  was  W i l l i a m R. Distribution', p.61 3 1 0 8  1 0 9  1 1 0  as  Ibid., Ibid.,  quickly, 1 1 2  appropriate  fortiori  are  labor  i s shadow-  are  profitable  " i n p r i n c i p l e be  their  supplied  availability scale  need  argument  agricultural  maha  on  in  on not  is  not  developing  season, over  70%  with  tractors.  tractors  a n i m a l s and  land  a  context  1 1 0  1971-72  agricultural  and if  economies of  insofar  relied  draught  p r o f i t a b l e at  prices,  i n A n u r a d h a p u r a were p r e p a r e d  zone  surplus  i f such machines  that  The  concerned."  be  labor  profitable  t h e y can  so  the  to  product  socially  countries,  During  Dry  likely  farm . s i z e .  necessarily  fields  rate, be  service  countries  not  F u r t h e r m o r e , even  1 0 9  developing  depend  are  However, " i n a  1 0 8  because  b e c a u s e of  p a r t i c u l a r l y in It  is  4-wheel  of  of  of  an  a need t o  areas  interest  paddy 1 1 1  acute prepare  where  water  that  field  C l i n e , ' A g r i c u l t u r a l S t r a t e g y and Rural Income i n G e r a l d M. M e i e r ( e d . ) , Op. C i t . , pp.612-616,  p.613 p.613  1 1 1 " r h . Agrarian S i t u a t i o n Relating to Paddy Cultivation in Five Selected Districts of Sri Lanka', Part 4-Anuradhapura D i s t r i c t , Research Study Series No.9, A g r a r i a n R e s e a r c h and T r a i n i n g I n s t i t u t e , Colombo, 1975, p.89 e  'The Agrarian S i t u a t i o n R e l a t i n g t o Paddy C u l t i v a t i o n i n Five Selected Districts of Sri Lanka', Part 6-Comparative Analysis, Research S t u d i e S e r i e s No.11, A g r a r i a n R e s e a r c h and T r a i n i n g I n s t i t u t e , Colombo, 1975, p.26 1 1 2  44  preparation, at  least  sowing,  partially  machinery:  and  overall  dependent  agricultural  upon p a t t e r n s  productivity  of ownership  were  of  farm  1 1 3  In both Anuradhapura and Hambantota where t r a c t o r i s t h e main source of draught power, o v e r 90% o f t h e t r a c t o r u s e r s h i r e t h e i r machines mostly from non-cultivators, viz. merchants, m i l l e r s , Gambarayas and landlords. In view of the general shortage of machinery i n the country and the tractor users b e i n g h e a v i l y dependent on h i r e d m a c h i n e s f a r m e r s o f t e n f a i l t o c o m p l e t e sowing a c c o r d i n g t o s t i p u l a t e d t i m e s c h e d u l e s . . . T h e t i m e of s o w i n g is a c r u c i a l f a c t o r from t h e p o i n t of view of p r o d u c t i v i t y . C r o p s sown i n t h e peak period i n November have g i v e n h i g h e r acre yields both i n Hambantota and Polonnaruwa than those sown l a t e r i n the season, i n d i c a t i n g the i n f l u e n c e of t i m e o f sowing on y i e l d s .  While  increased  wheel t r a c t o r s 1970's,  it  benefited  o i l prices and  is  resulted  buffalos  clear  in  f o r draught  that  some  from economies  of  Whether  levels  dry  scale  widespread  use  power d u r i n g zone  during  the  of  middle  f a r m e r s may the  2-  period  have under  study.  dependent indicates  upon e c o n o m i e s that  inversely  related  following  table  and A n u r a d h a p u r a  1 1 3  Ibid.,  o r not  farm  of s c a l e ,  size  i n the dry that  and  evidence  from  agricultural  zone.  paddy y i e l d s  were h i g h e s t  pp.26-27  of a g r i c u l t u r a l  It  is  production are field  studies  productivity  evident  i n Polonnaruwa,  from  are the  Hambantota,  where h o l d i n g s were l e s s  than  6  acres .  1 1 4  size  1  1  "  I b i d . , T a b l e 4 - I I , 'Average y i e l d s per a c r e of h o l d i n g ( b u s h e l s ) , Maha 1971/72', p.22  in relation  46  Table  3: A v e r a g e  Y i e l d s per Acre i n R e l a t i o n to S i z e i n B u s h e l s (Maha 1971/72)  Maha  of H o l d i n g  1971/72  Upto 2.00  2.004.00  4.006.00  6 .008 .00  8.0010.00  Over 10.00  Average  Polonnaruwa  49  69  71  59  50  50  62  Hambantota  37  40  35  29*  Anuradhapura  46  43  41  36  Yala 41  58  47  49  Hambantota  29  32  21  19*  Anuradhapura  38  48  50  35  income  on  i s hypothesized income  i n the dry  7. C u l t u r a l  F a c t o r s and  that  institution  5  ARTI, Op.  C i t . , Part  1  1  6  Y o t o p o u l o s , Op.  50  27  74  38  has  a  direct  i s the p r i m a r y source of  Fertility  of the f a m i l y " .  1  54  1 1 5  factors...which  1  49  the farm s i z e  Yotopoulos defines c u l t u r a l ideological  40  24  because a g r i c u l t u r e zone.  37  a c r e s and o v e r  *6  effect  49  1972  Polonnaruwa  It  34  1 1 6  has  f a c t o r s as been  C i t . , p.27  formed  K n o d e l and van  4-Anuradhapura  "a complex  de  District,  around Walle  p.80  of the  point  47  out  that  that  cultural  strong  the status  o f women  i s a cultural  v a l u e s which d e f i n e  influence  on  fertility.  women's  c h a r a c t e r i s t i c , and roles  may  have  a  1 1 7  One c u l t u r a l f e a t u r e t h a t we b e l i e v e t h e h i s t o r i c a l record suggests i s p a r t i c u l a r l y i m p o r t a n t i s t h e s t a t u s o f women. We r e g a r d t h i s more a s a c u l t u r a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c t h a n a s o c i o e c o n o m i c o r s t r u c t u r a l one s i n c e t h e extent t o which women p a r t i c i p a t e i n t h e broader socioeconomic system beyond t h e home and extended family appears t o be determined more by r e l i g i o u s and o t h e r cultural values than by socioeconomic d e v e l o p m e n t p e r s e . Of c o u r s e t h e two a r e related, but the p o i n t i s that the success of b o t h f a m i l y p l a n n i n g p r o g r a m s and more general development efforts designed to a f f e c t f e r t i l i t y may be q u i t e d e p e n d e n t on the cultural beliefs regarding the a p p r o p r i a t e r o l e o f women. T h i s i m p l i c a t i o n is consistent with the evidence suggesting that women may be more r e c e p t i v e t h a n men to t h e l i m i t a t i o n of f a m i l y s i z e , a t least in circumstances where f e r t i l i t y i s q u i t e h i g h . In c u l t u r a l s e t t i n g s where t h e f e m a l e role i s subordinate t o t h e e x t r e m e and where women a r e i s o l a t e d from t h e b r o a d e r communication network, p o l i c i e s d e s i g n e d t o a l t e r the status o f women may be more conducive t o reduced f e r t i l i t y than e i t h e r f a m i l y p l a n n i n g o r more g e n e r a l d e v e l o p m e n t efforts. As  will  zone, in  be c l e a r  the e f f e c t  the  primarily  Muslim  from d i s c u s s i o n of c u l t u r e  on f e r t i l i t y  community  than  due t o t h e i n f l u e n c e  women. The  i n chapter  Muslim  population  III, in  appears  t o be s t r o n g e r  i n other communities.  of Muslim is  very  culture  the dry  This i s  on t h e r o l e o f  substantial  in  some  John Knodel a n d E t i e n n e v a n de W a l l e , " L e s s o n s from t h e Past: P o l i c y Implications of H i s t o r i c a l F e r t i l i t y Studies", i n P o p u l a t i o n and Development Review, Vol.5, No.2, June 1979, pp.217-245, p.238 1  1  7  48  districts to  and almost  believe  that  district-wise education.  this  literacy, that  provide  in  II i n d i c a t e s  indirectly,  both  and  to  income,  as w e l l  influences suggest  table:  that  due t o t h e i r  and t h e r e i s reason  some age  cultural  explanation at  marriage  for and  effects  factors  influence  on age a t  marriage,  as d i r e c t l y .  fertility  Muslim  women f r o m o t h e r r e l i g i o u s following  i n others,  1 1 3  culture  evidence  might  variation  Diagram fertility  negligible  directly  women d e s i r e  communities.  I t i s hypothesized since  larger  This  there  families  i s clear  from  is than the  1 1 9  For instance, the percentage of the population which i s M u s l i m i n A m p a r a i , T r i n c o m o l e e , a n d Mannar i s 46%, 32%, a n d 28% respectively. Muslims account f o r only about 2% o f t h e p o p u l a t i o n i n Hambantota and J a f f n a , and l e s s t h a n 5% o f t h e population of Kurunegala. 1  1  8  "World Fertility S u r v e y , S r i L a n k a , 1975, F i r s t R e p o r t " . D e p a r t m e n t o f C e n s u s a n d S t a t i s t i c s , S r i L a n k a , M a r c h 1978. See T a b l e 6.6, p . 1 1 7 . 1 1 9  49  Table  4: Mean T o t a l Number o f C h i l d r e n D e s i r e d by C u r r e n t l y M a r r i e d Women Aged 25-34, by B a c k g r o u n d V a r i a b l e s  A: O b s e r v e d , a n d B: S t a n d a r d i z e d on t h e C o h o r t ' s D i s t r i b u t i o n of F a m i l y S i z e ( C a t e g o r i e s 0-1,3,4,5+) ( O v e r a l l mean i s 3.5)  RELIGION Buddhist  Hindu  Muslim  Christian  A  3.4  3.5  4.3  3.3  B  3.5  3.6  3.8  3.3  It  i s hypothesized  indirectly,  due  particularly  M u s l i m women, t e n d  members  other  period their since  of  to  that culture  i t s effect  cultural  influences  on e d u c a t i o n ,  to  have  groups.  less  s i n c e Muslims; schooling  Throughout  t h e S r i Lanka Muslims a s s i d u o u s l y r e f r a i n e d children these  Christian  to schools were  which  justifiably  proselytization.  the p e r i o d t h a t C e y l o n  provided perceived  T h i s was  was under  Western to  be  particularly  the B r i t i s h :  fertility  than  the c o l o n i a l from  sending  education, v e h i c l e s of true  during  1 2 0  They repudiated the Macaulayan c o n c e p t i o n of education. (That i s they wanted t o preserve t h e i r r e l i g i o n and c u l t u r e a t t h e c o s t o f an E n g l i s h e d u c a t i o n . ) Hence there  K.H.M. S u m a t h i p a l a , H i s t o r y o f E d u c a t i o n i n C e y l o n : 17961965 D e h i w a l a , C e y l o n , 1968, p . 3 6 ; c i t a t i o n i s from A.M.A. Azeez, R e p r i n t s o f A r t i c l e s and Speeches, V o l . 1 1 2 0  50  was a period of non-co-operation with modern e d u c a t i o n . E n g l i s h e d u c a t i o n became closely associated with C h r i s t i a n i t y and quite naturally the spirit of non-coo p e r a t i o n h a r d e n e d among M u s l i m s . They were not p r e p a r e d t o e n d a n g e r t h e f a i t h of t h e i r children even though they were fully conscious that thereby they were sacrificing their chances of obtaining government j o b s . The  M u s l i m s c o n t i n u e d t o show some r e l u c t a n c e  children in  i n non-Muslim  spite  of  contained the  the  pupil  as  schools.  of  part  of  As  1 2 1  enrolment  are  segregated  his  of  are  as  to  each  pupil  of  not  low  to  this  w o u l d be  studies" enough  as  they  given to  in  sex.  that  one  school  reason  in the  schools  to  levels  of  otherwise  C h i l d r e n a r e not  i s probably  1947  government  Muslim  might  of  "instruction  the Muslim p o p u l a t i o n ,  high  their  Independence. T h i s i s  insure that  Muslims g e n e r a l l y p r e f e r according  enrol  the Education Ordinance  course  needs of  not  s c h o o l s , and  particularly  intended  there  meet t h e  Furthermore,  that  the parent  adequately  public  fact  a provision  religion  s c h o o l s even a f t e r  to  be.  1 2 2  children  be  segregated  in  why  literacy  is  f o r M u s l i m women.  J.E. Jayasurya, E d u c a t i o n a l P o l i c i e s and P r o g r e s s D u r i n g t h e B r i t i s h R u l e i n C e y l o n ( S r i L a n k a ) 1796-1948 Associated E d u c a t i o n a l P u b l i s h e r s , Colombo, p.523 1 2 1  After 1971, SLFP M i n i s t e r of E d u c a t i o n B a d i u d i n Mohamed provided the Muslim community with additional all-Muslim s c h o o l s and u p g r a d e d many of t h e p r e v i o u s l y e x i s t i n g ones i n an attempt to overcome this problem. I am indebted t o S.H. Hasbullah for this, and other information, concerning the M u s l i m community i n S r i L a n k a . 1 2 2  51  Traditionally, value  on  the  education  female e d u c a t i o n women  is  therefore  educated  employment following education than  she  much  o f women. H i n d u s a n d B u d d h i s t s  value  is  likely  does  dowry  to  not  payments.  find  If a  employment, and  r e q u i r e s a s m a l l e r dowry. M u s l i m s do n o t have a dowry  account.  education  place  a s a means o f r e d u c i n g  s y s t e m , and t h e r e that  Muslim c u l t u r e  i s no s t i m u l u s  Similarly,  toward  they  national table, and  women w i t h  are other  less  education  on  M u s l i m women do n o t r e q u i r e s e c u l a r  s i n c e i t i s not customary after  female  are  f o r Muslim  married.  Muslim likely  religious  women  As  women  i s evident  have  seek  from t h e  relatively  t o be employed a f t e r  affiliations:  to  low  marriage  1 2 3  D e p a r t m e n t o f C e n s u s and S t a t i s t i c s , 1978, Op. C i t . , Table 3.4, 'Association of other explanatory variables with r e l i g i o n ' , p.53 1 2 3  52  Table  5: A s s o c i a t i o n o f V a r i o u s E x p l a n a t o r y V a r i a b l e s with R e l i g i o n  Religion  Education  Husband's  more  Occupation farming  %  %  Buddhist  42  Hindu  only]  P a t t e r n o f Work Never Worked  Worked "away" after  marriage  %  %  39  47  19  25  61  39  49  Muslim  21  29  79  12  Christian  59  27  50  25  ALL  38  42  48  25  marriage is  in not  particular, cultural in  than  5 years  Given  it  [women  t h a t one o f t h e main  reasons  S r i Lanka d u r i n g r e c e n t y e a r s surprising tend  groups.  to  that marry  Muslims, earlier  for deferral  h a s been s c h o o l i n g ,  and than  The mean age a t m a r r i a g e  Muslim members  women of  in  other  f o r women i s p r o v i d e d  the following table according to r e l i g i o u s  ethnic  of  affiliation  and  background. " 1 2  124 "world Fertility C e n s u s and S t a t i s t i c s ,  S u r v e y , S r i L a n k a , 1975", D e p a r t m e n t o f Op. C i t . , p . 6 2 . See T a b l e 4.4.  53  Table  6:  Mean Age a t M a r r i a g e o f Women who M a r r i e d B e f o r e Age 25, by R e l i g i o n a n d E t h n i c i t y A: F o r Women w i t h C u r r e n t Age 25 -49 B: F o r Women w i t h C u r r e n t Age 25 -29  (The  o v e r a l l mean age a t m a r r i a g e i s 18. 2 f o r women a g e d 25 - c and 18.9 f o r women aged 25-29) 4  RELIGION Buddhist A B  Muslim  Hindu  18.5 19.5  17.3 18.0  Christian  16.6 16.6  18.6 19.4  ETHNIC GROUP Sinhalese A B  18.6 19.5  As  suggested  of  Muslims  i n t h e World F e r t i l i t y  indirectly  i salso influence  between c u l t u r e the might  be p o s i t i v e It  fertility  1 2 5  Ibid.,  to their  early  hypothesized fertility  Survey,  that  to  suggest  whether  16.5 16.5  "the h i g h  fertility  cultural  there  factors  1 2 5  might  o f some  relationship  i s no  evidence  or not t h i s  in  relationship  or negative.  i salso  directly,  p . 154  Lanka Moor  age a t m a r r i a g e " .  by v i r t u e  a n d income, a l t h o u g h  literature  Sri  17.2 18.2  17.5 18.0  i s due m a i n l y It  Indian Tamil  S r i Lanka Tamil  possible since  that  cultural  communal  factors  rivalries  influence  may have some  54  influence leaders might  on  fertility.  have  1 2  instance,  been p a r t i c u l a r l y  jeopardize  population:  For  the m a j o r i t y  Buddhist  concerned  position  that  enjoyed  religious  family by  the  planning Sinhalese  6  A sustained attack on family planning campaigns was s e t i n m o t i o n by members of t h e B u d d h i s t c l e r g y , l e d by t h e Mahanayake Theras of Malwatte and A s g i r i y a and t h e Reverend Madihe Pannasha, a redoubtable champion of the cause of Sihnalla B u d d h i s t s . Not l o n g a f t e r i t had been made a national programme in Ceylon, the Mahanayake of Malwatte declared family planning to be i n i m i c a l t o the S i n h a l e s e p e o p l e and c a l l e d upon S i n h a l e s e women to a b s t a i n from u s i n g f a m i l y p l a n n i n g m e t h o d s . In a series of articles to the press written in 1969 and 1970, the Reverend Madihe Pannasiha p o i n t e d t o the i n e x o r a b l e and i n e v i t a b l e e f f e c t w h i c h f a m i l y p l a n n i n g would have of undermining the ethnic constitution of the population of the country, to the disadvantage of Sinhala Buddhists. Pannasiha Thero used s t a t i s t i c s to argue that the majority community of C e y l o n would e v e n t u a l l y be t r a n s f o r m e d into a minority community as a r e s u l t of t h e f a m i l y p l a n n i n g movement. The  question  a matter of influenced Lanka. have  1 2 7  been  of  family planning  considerable the  r a t e of  interest  factor  in  communal  i n the  implementation  It i s questionable, a  and  of  i n t e r e s t s has  press,  and  no  doubt  family planning  in S r i  however, t h a t communal  the  fertility  sentiments  d e c i s i o n s of  S.U. K o d i k a r a , " F a m i l y P l a n n i n g i n C e y l o n " , i n T.E. The P o l i t i c s of F a m i l y P l a n n i n g i n t h e T h i r d W o r l d , A l l a n & Unwin L t d . , London, 1973, p.311 1 2 6  1 2 7  Ibid.,  p.312  and  pp.326-329  been  families.  Smith, George,  55  While  b o t h t h e T a m i l and S i n h a l e s e  fear  that  nothing  of  numbers  the  literature  which  fertility  i s dealt  cultural  concerned,  differentials 8.  do  the  population  diminish,  suggests  that  fertility.  there i s  such The  1 2 8  fear  question  m i g h t p r o v i d e an e x p l a n a t i o n  with  factors,  of  might  for increased  communal r i v a l r i e s  shown t h a t are  relative  a motivation  whether  high  their  in  provides  segments  in chapter  insofar  as  I I I , where Hindus  i t will  and  not p r o v i d e much e x p l a n a t i o n  for be  Buddhists  for  fertility  i n the dry zone.  Irrigation,  Paddy  Yield,  Farm  Management  Practices  and  Income In to  the case of S r i Lanka's d r y zone,  consider  conditions,  agricultural  f a r m managment p r a c t i c e s ,  hypothesized irrigation higher should  leads  in  the  i n terms of water and paddy  districts  under  productivity.  have  higher  by m i n o r and  t h e main  rainfed  s o u r c e o f income  dry zone, p a r t i c u l a r l y  in areas  than  irrigation  It  study,  A r e a s under m a j o r  yields  supply  yield.  t o i m p r o v e d f a r m management p r a c t i c e s  therefore  characterized  the  that,  agricultural  provides  development  i t i s convenient  areas  major and  under major  to  irrigation which  s y s t e m s . As  f o r farm f a m i l i e s  is  are paddy  living  schemes,  in  paddy  For i n s t a n c e , i t i s n o t s u g g e s t e d t h a t communal r i v a l r i e s are a f a c t o r i n f e r t i l i t y d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g i n e i t h e r the World F e r t i l i t y Survey or A b a y a r a t n e and Jayawardene's F e r t i l i t y i n Ceylon, both of which investigate factors which influence f e r t i l i t y decisions. 1  2  8  56  yield  should The  be  hypothesis  agricultural studies  positively  1 3 0  t h a t major  productivity  conducted  Institute.  associated with  by  is  the  The  supported and  S t u d i e s of t h e a g r a r i a n s i t u a t i o n  with  indicate  f o r t h r e e of  failure  t h a t major  for several  Uncertainty  indicate:  contributes  s y s t e m s , as  irrigation  to  field  Training respect dry  to  zone  Polonnaruwa.  leads to increased  reasons.  of water  in areas  by  the twelve  T h e s e a r e Hambantota, A n u r a d h a p u r a , and  studies  irrigation  strongly  1 2 9  Research  paddy p r o d u c t i o n  crop  irrigation  Agrarian  paddy p r o d u c t i o n a r e a v a i l a b l e districts.  income.  supply  which are findings  is  serviced from  the  a  major  reason  by m i n o r and Anuradhapura  for  rainfed study  1 3 1  This data presented shows a relatively c l o s e r e l a t i o n s h i p between t h e quality of irrigation experienced p a r t i c u l a r l y during t h e f l o w e r i n g s t a g e of paddy and the acre yields harvested. 80% of t h e o p e r a t o r s i n the lowest yield group (less than 20 bushels) have had a p o o r water s u p p l y a t f l o w e r i n g w h i l s t o n l y 8% of t h o s e who had r e p o r t e d y i e l d s of o v e r 60 b u s h e l s p e r a c r e had experienced similar conditions...given t h e u n c e r t a i n t y of r a i n , i r r i g a t i o n r e m a i n s a critical factor in determining acre yields.  Over 75% of gross farm income was d e r i v e d from paddy c u l t i v a t i o n i n the t h r e e dry zone districts studied by the Agrarian Research and Training Institute (ARTI). See "The Agrarian Situation R e l a t i n g to Paddy Cultivation in Five Selected Districts of S r i . L a n k a " , ARTI, R e s e a r c h S t u d y S e r i e s #11, P a r t 6, p.30. 1 2 9  1 3 0  Ibid.,  Parts  Ibid.,  Part  1, 4  3,  and  4  57  The and  risk  of  rainfed  where  schemes t h a n  water  supplied  supply  by  i s much h i g h e r  i t i s in areas  and  rainfed  more r e l u c t a n t  capital-intensive  seed  It i s well  of  not p e r f o r m  well  fertilizers  and  do  quantities field  of  methods,  consideration technologies.  by  and  the average  c a s h o u t l a y by  more  double  than  irrigation.  1 3 2  P o l o n n a r u w a , and season.  1 3  'high  without  the  The  cash  both  their  varieties of  3  with  to  maha  into  higher y i e l d i n g  major  by  taken  seed  i n Anuradhapura irrigation  farmers  with  as  well  as  the  is  minor  f o r b o t h Hambantota  and yala  3  2  1 3 3  large  relating  be  shows t h a t  outlay  the  than  Costs  must  pattern i s similar  for  yielding  as o p p o s e d t o b r o a d c a s t i n g by  table  farmers  high  yielding'  insecticides.  are  therefore  I b i d . , p.84. See T a b l e 7 - X V I I I , 'Cash O u t l a y p e r acre Paddy C u l t i v a t i o n a c c o r d i n g t o Water S u p p l y - Y a l a 1972'. 1  minor  schemes,  the a p p l i c a t i o n  harvesting  following  are  i n t h e new,  farmers b e f o r e they adopt  The  major  technologies,  known t h a t  preparation, transplanting  traditional  under  irrigation  to invest  counterparts. seed  i n areas under  i s more a s s u r e d . F a r m e r s whose f i e l d s  minor  considerably but  crop f a i l u r e  Ibid.,  Parts  1 and  3, pp.  134  and  106  respectively  for  58  Table  7:  C a s h O u t l a y p e r a c r e f o r Paddy C u l t i v a t i o n a c c o r d i n g t o S o u r c e of Water S u p p l y Yala 1972  of Water S u p p l y  Source  Major  Minor  48 Extent  Cultivated  (acres)  21  214.06  43 .25  Expenses Items of  1. F i e l d i. ii. iii.  Expenditure  Amount  Operations Tractor  including fuel  costs  Buffalo Hired  3.  Miscellaneous L a n d A c r e a g e Tax  The  differential  1 23  82  93  27  79  53  4  1 1  7  13  42  12  14  9  49  14  17  1 1  32  9  6  4  6  2  3  2  100  1 49  100  340  Anuradhapura,  are over  amount  74  19  & L a n d Rent  Total  labour  253  31  Transport  In  %  Rs.  105  Food  Inputs  ii.  %  Labour  2.  i.  Rs.  13  (a) Wages (b)  Amount  5 times  spent  on  per  greater hired  expenditure  acre in areas  labour  expenditures under  i s the  major  on  hired  schemes.  greatest category  in a l l three d i s t r i c t s .  Much  of  of the  59  difference techniques  in by  irrigation. major  labour farmers  1 3 4  costs  i s due t o t h e use o f t r a n s p l a n t i n g  whose  fields  Transplanting  irrigation  is  are  clearly  and t h e use of h i g h  supplied associated  by  major  with  yielding varieties.  both  1 3 5  In Polonnaruwa under major schemes transplanted c r o p s have s i g n i f i c a n t l y o u t y i e l d e d the broadcast crops, the d i f f e r e n c e i n y i e l d b e i n g 28 b u s h e l s f o r NHYV's a n d 20 b u s h e l s f o r OHYV" s p e r a c r e . The v e r y s m a l l p r o p o r t i o n of t h e a r e a transplanted under minor schemes i n t h e d r y z o n e . . . shows t h e r e l u c t a n c e of farmers t o adopt techniques that are associated with high expenses under less favourable environmental condit ions. That seed which  water  i s sown  1  3  4  This  was t r u e  1  3  5  I b i d . , Part  supply  i s evident  conditions  i n f l u e n c e the type of  from t h e f o l l o w i n g  f o ra l l three  tables:  1 3 6  districts.  6, C o m p a r a t i v e A n a l y s i s , pp. 25-26  I b i d . , P a r t 4, T a b l e s 5 - V I I I a n d 5-IX, p . 5 6 . The terms NHYV, OHYV, a n d TV s t a n d f o r new h i g h y i e l d i n g v a r i e t i e s , o l d high yielding varieties, and traditional varieties respectively. 1  3  6  60  Table  8:  D i s t r i b u t i o n of V a r i e t i e s a c c o r d i n g t o Water S u p p l y d u r i n g Maha 1971/72 NHYV  Water S u p p l y  OHYV  TV  (acres)  (acres)  (acres)  (acres)  Major  Irrigation %  83.00 1 7  324.31 68  71 .75 1 5  479.06 100  Minor  Irrigation %  33.75 5  531.51 84  67.75 1 1  633.01 1 00  116.75 10  855.82 77  139.50 13  1112.07 100  Total % able  D i s t r i b u t i o n of V a r i e t i e s a c c o r d i n g t o Water S u p p l y d u r i n g Y a l a 1972  9:  NHYV Water S u p p l y  TV  OHYV  (acres)  (acres)  (acres)  (acres)  I rrigation %  66.50 28  14.00 6  160.56 67  241.06 100  Minor  Irrigation %  2.00 3  9.75 1 6  47.88 80  59.63 100  68.50 23  23.75 8  208.44 69  300.69 100  NHYV's a r e most common OHYV's  and  TV's  i n a r e a s c h a r a c t e r i z e d by m a j o r  are  associated  with  minor  P o l o n n a r u w a , t h e a v e r a g e y i e l d f o r NHYV's was  acre.  1 3 7  Total  Major  Total %  acre;  Total  f o r OHYV's 1 3 7  Major  Ibid.,  Part  the  average  y i e l d was o n l y  i r r i g a t i o n contributes  4, p.25  t o higher  84  schemes.  schemes.  In  bushels  per  56 b u s h e l s p e r yields  since i t  61  facilitates  the spread  Results "different income  relation  to  net  dependent  irrigation by  paddy  upon  1  3  8  Ibid.,  1  3  higher  on  of  Part  9  "°  Ibid.,  yield  and t h e use o f new  Ibid., Part the y a l a season 1  than  schemes.  that  production  per acre  the  Part  from paddy benefit income  from  farmers  major in  farmers  obtained  65%  fields  were  whose  However,  are  increases  In Hambantota,  findings  for  advantages a s s o c i a t e d with  major  s e e d t e c h n o l o g i e s were more  than  expenses. " 1  by m i n o r  In t h i s  0  district,  irrigation  t h a n f a r m e r s under m a j o r  f o r P o l o n n a r u w a , due under m i n o r  to  the  received schemes. t o water  fact  schemes i n t h e sample  Comparative A n a l y s i s ,  1, Hambantota only.  to  water  sales  n e t incomes o f f a r m e r s a c c o r d i n g  farmers  6,  assured  irrigation  1 3 9  were s u p p l i e d  i s not p r o v i d e d  number  major  acre  minor  show  by  rise  t o adopt a package of  real  i s not s t r o n g .  that  supply... give  which  that  indicate  under  position  areas  evidence  per  11% more n e t income  the  in  yield  f a r m e r s whose f i e l d s  Information  operators  G r o s s incomes  1 3 8  were s u p p l i e d  income  Anuradhapura  supply  that  studies  to water  are in a better  although  whose f i e l d s  offset  and  highest  irrigation,  ARTI  relating  farm p r a c t i c e s .  invariably  varieties.  the  situations  schemes  improved  more  from  disparities"  supply  o f new  District,  that was  P.32 p.138.  4, A n u r a d h a p u r a D i s t r i c t ,  p.84  Findings are f o r  62  small.  I t might  1 4 1  income  per  obtained  the  hypothesis  was  that  minor  from  increases  in  the  field  levels  today." case  studies  i n paddy y i e l d  in  than  net that  Anuradhapura.  seems t o s u p p o r t  the  have a p o s i t i v e e f f e c t  and F e r t i l i t y  i s g e n e r a l l y accepted  of  of  fertility  that  S r i Lanka,, occur  since  and  following marital  subjected  chapters. fertility  i twill  planning family  is  on  practically  already to  a  I b i d . , Part  this  been  c a n n o t be o v e r l o o k e d . studies to give  range  in  populations  interest  in  the  between age a t  discussed  statistical  in  the  some  a n a l y s i s i n the  district-wise  study.  practice  a l l b i r t h s i n that  r a t e s and c o n t r a c e p t i v e  in  among  The r e l a t i o n  1 4 3  Unfortunately,  fertility  from other  f o r t h e wide  marriage  n o t be p o s s i b l e t o measure  planning  available  has  "contraceptive  i s of p a r t i c u l a r  within m a r r i a g e .  marriage and f e r t i l i t y detail,  within  Marital fertility  1 4 2  country  data  on  use a r e u n a v a i l a b l e effect  of  family  Still,  the subject of  Sufficient  information i s  some i n s i g h t  3, P o l o n n a r u w a D i s t r i c t ,  with  respect  p.106  J o h n B o n g a a r t s , "A Framework f o r A n a l y z i n g Determinants of Fertility", i n Population Review, V o l . 4 , No.1, M a r c h 1978, p.110. 1 4 2  average  Polonnaruwa  irrigation  the...variable primarily responsible  the  1 4 1  higher  that  income.  It  and  however,  25%  evidence  9. C o n t r a c e p t i o n  is  noted  by f a r m e r s under  Overall,  on  acre  be  the Proximate and Development  F i g u r e s f o r 1975 i n d i c a t e t h a t o n l y 2% o f women e x p e r i e n c e d a birth prior to t h e i r first marriage. See I n t e r n a t i o n a l S t a t i s t i c a l I n s t i t u t e , Op. C i t . , p . 9 0 . 1 4 3  63  to  the  relative  Sri  Lanka and t h e d r y zone. The  importance  GOSL l a u n c h e d  of f a m i l y p l a n n i n g  the Family  in  1965, a n d a l l - i s l a n d c o v e r a g e  in  1968. " 1  during that  married  from  5  h a s been g r e a t e s t which  suggests  techniques  Ibid.,  fertility  1963 t o 1971 and t h e r e  The change  Programme  o f t h e programme was  marital  i s due t o h i g h e r 1  planning  ""  trend  couples. "  years,  1  Age-specific  the p e r i o d  this  period  1 1  Planning  to f e r t i l i t y i n  levels  rates  5  declined  i s some  fertility  evidence use by  during  this  f o r women above t h e age of t w e n t y - f i v e that  i n order  older  women may be u s i n g  t o prevent  further  family  births.  pp.8-9  " "Census o f P o p u l a t i o n 1971 S r i L a n k a , General D e p a r t m e n t o f C e n s u s a n d S t a t i s t i c s , Colombo, p.26 1  achieved  of c o n t r a c e p t i v e  in marital  late  Report",  64  This  i s evident  Table  10:  from t h e f o l l o w i n g  table.  1 4 6  Age S p e c i f i c M a r i t a l F e r t i l i t y R a t e s f o r S r i L a n k a : 1963-1972  Age S p e c i f i c M a r i t a l Age  Fertility  P e r c e n t a g e Change  1 971  15-19  354  418  + 18.1  20-24  396  388  -  2.0  25-29  344  313  -  9.0  30-34  270  237  - 12.2  35-39  1 75  157  - 10.3  40-44  53  49  45-49  8  8  has  shown  "all-island  older  Rates  1 963  Fernando the  Group  women  decline  dramatic  pattern  (30-44)  during  of  to  decline  II  t h e d r y zone d i s t r i c t s  Polonnaruwa,  Anuradhapura,  in marital  fertility  from  fertility  i n a l l four  i n zones  7.5 0.0  the period  marital  i s noticed  was most p r o n o u n c e d  corresponds Amparai,  that  -  1963 t o 1970, decline  z o n e s " , and t h a t t h e and  IV.  1 4 7  Hambantota,  and  among  Zone  II  Moneragala,  Puttalam.  among y o u n g e r  Ibid., Table 2.6, 'Changes i n Age S p e c i f i c F e r t i l i t y R a t e s i n S r i L a n k a : 1963-1971', p.26  The  most  women ( 1 5 -  1  4  6  Marital  1  4  7  Dallas F. F e r n a n d o , "A Note on D i f f e r e n t i a l F e r t i l i t y i n L a n k a " , Demography, V o l . 11, No.3, A u g u s t 1974, p.447  Sri  65  29)  occurred  i n zone I I I , w h i c h c o r r e s p o n d s  Vavuniya, Trincomalee, 'The occurred levels  all-island  between  1963  and  of c o n t r a c e p t i v e  Planning that  and B a t t i c a l o a .  marital f e r t i l i t y  abortions. "seems  that  it  increased  contraceptive  use  will  have  fertility  in  the  main  the  period  composition marital  f a c t o r s i n the from and  1963  to  rising  age  fertility Detailed  Lanka  i s of  was  1 5 0  is  However,  decline 1971  interest,  the  Fernando have very  even  Family reports  intensified likely  a dramatic  changes  which  increased  outside  in crude b i r t h  were  important.  to  that  impact  i t i s important  at marriage,  information  particular  responsibility  1 4 8  future.  1 4 9  to  and  the  due  and  1973",  that  in  in  both w i t h i n  activity  Mannar,  1 4 8  is primarily  illegal  planning  considerably  1971  use,  Programme, and  family  decline  to J a f f n a ,  rate in  to  on  note  during marital  though d e c l i n e i n  1 5 1  on  contraceptive  in that  for family planning  has  methods i n S r i  i t indicates that  fallen  largely  on  the  women.  I b i d . , p.447  Ibid., p.9 It has been s u g g e s t e d t h a t i l l e g a l a b o r t i o n s have "assumed e p i d e m i c p r o p o r t i o n s " i n Sri Lanka. See Ralph Pieris, "Motivations Relating t o F a m i l y P l a n n i n g " , i n Marga, V o l . 5 , No.1, 1978, p.80. 1 4 9  D a l l a s F.S. F e r n a n d o , " F e r t i l i t y T r e n d s i n Sri Lanka and F u t u r e P r o s p e c t s " , i n J o u r n a l o f B i o s o c i a l S c i e n c e , No.8, 1976, p.38 1 5 0  Ibid., p.35, Report, p.26 1 5 1  and  Census  of  Population,  1971,  General  66  Information in  with  r e s p e c t t o c o n t r a c e p t i v e u s e by new a c c e p t o r s  1971 i s p r e s e n t e d  Table at  i n the f o l l o w i n g  table.  11: New A c c e p t o r s o f F a m i l y P l a n n i n g Government, M u n i c i p a l i t y , a n d F a m i l y P l a n n i n g i n S r i L a n k a : 1971  C o n t r a c e p t i v e Method  Loop  11,446  23. 2  Pill  25,828  52. 4  6,945  14. 1  Foam T a b l e t s Sterilization  -  Sterilization  -  male female  clear  from t h e a b o v e  in  0. 7  245  0. 5  408  t h e most commonly a d o p t e d acceptors  361  4,090  Other  table that  birth  8 3 0 .8  t h e p i l l and  forms of b i r t h  1971. O v e r  two methods o f  planning  Clinics,  %  Total  Condom  these  1 5 2  adopted  by new  75% o f new a c c e p t o r s a d o p t e d  one o f  control,  control  the  indicating  that  family  i s v e r y much t h e p r e r o g a t i v e o f women. The number o f  women o p t i n g f o r s t e r i l i z a t i o n  i s also  of i n t e r e s t .  F e r n a n d o , 1976, Op. C i t . , T a b l e 4, 'New a c c e p t o r s o f f a m i l y planning a t government, m u n i c i p a l i t y and f a m i l y planning a s s o c i a t i o n c l i n i c s , by methods, S r i L a n k a , 1967-72', p.39 1 5 2  67  Chapter 1.  Introduction It  of  the  are  of  three since are  i s the  purpose of  methodology  to deal  to p r o v i d e  i n t e r e s t . The  discussion  parts.  path a n a l y s i s  i s introduced  First,  briefly  methodology  outlined  w h i c h must be  are  aggregate  b a s e d on  rather  than  section  4.  the  The  statistical  model  Path A n a l y s i s : The  test  the  path  in  f i g u r e s and  section  useful  r e l a t i v e strength  the  represent  provides  steps  taken  results  district  trends  is dealt  details  2,  ecological  statistical  individuals,  with  concerning  of,  in the  or  hypotheses  some C a v e a t s  of a l t e r n a t i v e h y p o t h e s e s .  diagram one  and  a p p l i c a t i o n of p a t h a n a l y s i s  is  based  more h y p o t h e s e s .  relationships depicted which  in section  problem of  since  A Brief Description  most  representative  of  The  into  employed.  Yotopoulos'  determine  considered  behavior  final  3.  which  is divided  employed. P r o c e d u r a l  in section  details  with questions  methodological  t h i s i s the  some of  t h i s chapter  employed, and  correlation,  2.  III  in  provide  this the  upon, In  order  diagram,  best  is  to  1 5 3  Each  and  is  to  model  and  to  explanation  for  153 Fred N. Kerlinger and Elazer J. Pedhazur, R e g r e s s i o n i n B e h a v i o r a l R e s e a r c h , H o l t , R i n e h a r t , and I n c . , New Y o r k , 1973, p.305  Multiple Winston,  68  district-wise employed.  differentials  Hypothesized  v a r i a b l e s must be and  interpreted  with  information:  fertility,  relationships  clearly  constructed,  in  specified  statistical  before  to  analysis  between  findings  reference  path  a path must  or  is  amongst  model can  be  available  be  judiciously qualitative  1 5 fl  The method of path coefficients i s not i n t e n d e d to a c c o m p l i s h the i m p o s s i b l e task of deducing causal relations from the v a l u e s of c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s . It is intended to combine the q u a n t i t a t i v e i n f o r m a t i o n g i v e n by t h e c o r r e l a t i o n s with such qualitative i n f o r m a t i o n a s may be on hand on causal relations to give a quantitative interpretation. Insofar concerned,  two  as  the  use  of p a t h  considerations  interrelationships  amongst  are  in  variables  are  pertinent  to  understanding  relationships  are  interpretations. one  plausible  to  determine  even  if  1 5 4  Ibid.,  which  highly  unclear  In c a s e s  hypothesis,  good  statistical  still  i t will  hypothesis  correlation  i s no  not has  results proof  intermediate,  and  and many  open  fundamental to  necessarily  are of  questions  divergent  i s b a s e d upon more  the  best  be  obtained.  than  possible  explanatory 1 5 5  power  Second,  cause-and-effect,  and  p.305  Nick Eberstadt, F e r t i l i t y D e c l i n e i n the Less C o u n t r i e s , P r a e g e r P u b l i s h e r s , New Y o r k , 1981, p.3 1 5 5  is the  of  and  study  First,  complex,  where a p a t h  statistical  order.  economic,  demographic  the  analysis in this  Developed  69  when  reciprocal  amongst  variables  statistical greatest models  cause-and-effect are  results  becomes  recursive:  unidirectional...at both  a  c a u s e and  suggests, any  "simple  feedback  acute  in  and  information a  agricultural  a  where  amplifies  the  might  of one  be  designed on  i n time  since  reflects  This  One  fact of  of  of  that  the path  the  model  is  a variable  cannot  be  variable".  for  problem only  available to  on  is  one  importance  1 5 6  As  DeWalt  from  qualitative  field  s t u d i e s . In  the  effects  of  zone, o n l y  the  are c o n s i d e r e d .  quantitative  historical  p e r i o d are  any  i n the dry  another  for  particularly  time  of  capture  fertility  variable  approach,  which  1 5 7  data  development  viable  the  flow  of a n o t h e r  system".  model  effects  information  effect  is  causal  or  interpretation  more d i f f i c u l t .  analysis  "the  between  r e c u r s i v e p a t h a n a l y s i s . . . d o e s not a l l o w  which  developing  is  an  the  even  a given point  i n the  cases  available,  forward  expected,  problems with path are  relationships  and  trends  is  This  qualitative taken  into  consideration.  3. A B r i e f  N o t e on In  an  1 5 6  analysis,  order  Procedure to c o n s t r u c t a path  model and  s e v e r a l s t e p s were n e c e s s a r y .  K e r l i n g e r and  P e d h a z u r , Op.  proceed  First,  toward  a number  of  C i t . , p.308  B i l l i e R. DeWalt, M o d e r n i z a t i o n i n a M e x i c a n E j i d o : A S t u d y i n Economic A d a p t a t i o n , Cambridge U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , C a m b r i d g e , 1979, p.283 1 5 7  c7 0  hypotheses  concerning  development  and  accomplished basis  of  Lanka  and  following  tested, and  in  relevant  their  It  1 5 8  upon w h i c h easily  and  t o be  included  remembered  which  i n the  i s based or  involve  for  t h e model  is  comprise that  which only  the  variables  as  on  the  are  detailed  in S r i  hypotheses model  were  Following  model  many o f t h e  data  was  conducted  determined  e q u a t i o n s which  quantified  available,  studies  This and  r e l a t i o n s h i p s were e s t a b l i s h e d .  must be  t h e model  agricultural  constructed.  case  Once i t was  variables  the r e g r e s s i o n  written.  were  between  a s u r v e y of t h e l i t e r a t u r e ,  the d r y zone.  identified  relationship  fertility  findings  were t o be  this,  the  were  hypotheses  which  are  not  otherwise  not  as  data  will  permit. The for  variables  necessary the  t o choose  determined  representing either since  of  the two  both crude  presumed  step  domain, and from  a  infant mortality  Chapter  zone  and  fertility. rate  1  District-wise child  most  I I I , section  and  cases  appropriate matrix derived  districts.  i n d i c a t o r s might  rate  to influence  many  indicators' it  o r more i n d i c a t o r s from  the  dry  mortality death  In  correlation  twelve  See  9  to select appropriate  between two  1 5 8  5  was  s p e c i f i e d i n the model.  same v a r i a b l e  was  the  next  infant 1 5 9  As  For  have been mortality  from  data  instance, selected, rate  are  t h e c o r r e l a t i o n between  fertility  rates  within  indicator  is  +.62,  and  5.  mortality  was  were  unavailable.  the  71  correlation  between  +.14,  mortality  infant  Once regression  all  crude death  rate  of  was  the  direct  even  effects  level of  i n the  of  the  diagram,  by  values).  the  table  constructed.  The  p r o v i d e much of  4.  As  Correlation: analysis  from  aggregate  study  is ecologic  and  to  (beta of  a  variable  information  the  relationships  effects  contained  and  possible  the  general  d i r e c t , i n d i r e c t , and  results  the  on  coefficients  indirect  different  The  P r o b l e m and  i s b a s e d on  figures  total  pairs  was  in t h i s  table  upon w h i c h  further  In  Some P r e c a u t i o n s  statistical  which r e p r e s e n t  in nature.  studies,  observations:  Morgenstern  results  derived  entire districts,  introducing makes  the the  subject  this of  following  1 6 0  Hal Morgenstern, "Uses of Epidemiologic Research", American No.72, pp.1336-1344, 1972 1 6 0  using  specified,  illustrate  calculated,  quantitative  chosen,  i s based.  Ecological  ecologic  numerical  been  then  path  the  were  between  the  of  only  model.  variables  was  to  illustrating  relations  had  is  i n the  model were run  It  and  terms  this,  variables  decomposition  analysis  in  Following  independent  'causal'  model  f o r use  independent  construct depicted  fertility  i n c l u s i o n was  were o b t a i n e d .  path  and  indicators  dependent v a r i a b l e s a  rate  selected  equations contained  SPSS programme. An the  the  Ecologic J o u r n a l of  Analysis in Public Health",  72  Ecologic studies are empirical investigations involving the g r o u p as t h e u n i t of a n a l y s i s . T y p i c a l l y , t h e g r o u p i s a geographically defined area, such as a state, county, or census t r a c t . Because they can often be done by combining existing data f i l e s on l a r g e p o p u l a t i o n s , ecologic studies are generally less expensive and take l e s s time than s t u d i e s i n v o l v i n g the i n d i v i d u a l as the unit of a n a l y s i s ; e c o l o g i c s t u d i e s can a l s o a c h i e v e certain objectives g e n e r a l l y not met w i t h nonecologic designs. On the other hand, data on many variables (e.g. behaviors, a t t i t u d e s , and m e d i c a l h i s t o r i e s ) may not be a v a i l a b l e a t t h e e c o l o g i c l e v e l , and the r e s u l t s of e c o l o g i c a n a l y s e s a r e s u b j e c t t o certain l i m i t a t i o n s not a p p l i c a b l e t o many other study d e s i g n s .  Insofar  as  this  approach  was  possible,  adopted  yet  government  much  of  a causal  main  from  other  inference  about  high  populations  Muslim  necessarily than  disaggregate  This texts.  1 6 2  Hal  be  of  non-Muslims. generally  1 6 1  This  ecologic was  not  available  from  analysis  high  that  differ  the  basis  it  M u s l i m s have h i g h e r results  of with  cannot fertility  based  from r e s u l t s w h i c h a r e  C i t . , p.1339  the  making  if districts  fertility,  Statistical  is  r e s u l t s "from  instance,  i s r e f e r r e d t o as  M o r g e n s t e r n , Op.  were  ecologic  For  1 6 2  show  concluded  phenomena  data  an  fieldwork  i n d i v i d u a l phenomena on  groups".  data  concerned,  publications.  ecological c o r r e l a t i o n .  of  1 6 1  is  necessity:  limitation  observations  rates  study  district-wise  c e n s u s e s and The  problem  particular  ecological fallicy  on based  i n some  73  on  aggregate data. Levels  when  aggregate  'cross-level  figures  bias'.  There correlation. regression where  rather  independent not  estimates Another by  statistical  studies the on  by  corresponding  findings  "in  of a n a l y s i s .  respect  of which  district  i s t o use situation  t o one o f t h e  coefficients, result  but  i n unbiased  measures". " 1 6  in ecologic  studies  which  studies use  the  1 6 5  t h e above m e n t i o n e d methods o f d e a l i n g  indicators  are  from r e g r e s s i o n  in  this  selected of  i t i s possible  data.  Abayaratne  1 6 3  Ibid.,  pp.1339-1340  1 6 4  Ibid.,  p.1342  1 6 5  Ibid.,  p.1342  study. on  analysis  the is  with  Although b a s i s of based  on  equations. There a r e s e v e r a l  which use the i n d i v i d u a l as the u n i t  basis  ecological  the  individual  from  c o e f f i c i e n t s , the bulk  obtained  with  Morgenstern  regression  c o r r e l a t i o n a r e employed  correlation  deal  correlation:  ecologic  them w i t h  of  be h i g h e r  t o t h e phenomenon! o f  i s to v e r i f y results obtained  Both  results  to  suggested  simple  as t h e u n i t  ecological  ways  t o be homogeneous w i t h  their  way  individual  due  correlation coefficients, will  of  comparing  some  than  variables,  ecologic  used,  several  method  groups tend  are  usually  1 6 3  are  One  of c o r r e l a t i o n w i l l  of  to corroborate and  analysis, findings  Jayawardene's  on  based  study  of  74  fertility approach II). as  1  6  6  well  trends (Part  Part  in I)  S r i Lanka  as  well  as  incorporates a  case  ecological  study approach  I I i s of p a r t i c u l a r i n t e r e s t , both  as i t s m e t h o d o l o g y :  an  (Part  f o r i t s content  1 6 7  In the choice of the v i l l a g e r s t o be s t u d i e d , each demographic area has been divided into s t r a t a on t h e b a s i s of t h e i r ethno-religious or socio-economic characteristics and t h e v i l l a g e s have been c h o s e n from s t r a t a so t h a t the d i f f e r e n t groups would find representation i n the s a m p l e . The method was e s s e n t i a l l y one o f c a s e s t u d y and c o n s e q u e n t l y t h e p o s s i b i l i t y e x i s t s t h a t t h e v i l l a g e s c h o s e n and s t u d i e d would not present a sample that was statistically representative of the demographic area i n t o w h i c h t h e y f e l l . As has been a l r e a d y p o i n t e d o u t , i n t h e c h o i c e of t h e sample t h e main consideration was not that the v i l l a g e s studied should constitute a statistically representative sample o f t h e d e m o g r a p h i c a r e a but t h a t a l l groups i n a demographic area should f i n d a d e q u a t e r e p r e s e n t a t i o n i n t h e sample so that fertility similarities and dissimilarities i n the d i f f e r e n t groups c o u l d be s t u d i e d . Abhayaratne fertility economic district Similarly,  and  Jayawardene's  patterns and  o f i n d i v i d u a l members  ethno-religious  patterns findings  b a s e d on a c a s e  findings  illustrated in  the  groups in  World  the  with in  respect  to the  different  socio-  are  decomposition  Fertility  s t u d y a p p r o a c h , and h e l p  consistent  with table.  Survey a r e a l s o  to verify  r e s u l t s from  A b h a y a r a t n e , O.E.R., a n d J a y a w a r d e n e , C.H.S., Fertility T r e n d s i n C e y l o n , The Colombo A p o t h e c a r i e s ' Co., L t d . , Colombo, 1967 1 6 6  1 6 7  I b i d . , p.186  75  my  own  ecological  5. S t a t i s t i c a l  analysis.  Model  Employed  Statistical h a s been o b t a i n e d is  1 6 8  information  necessary  =  IMR  =  AM  =  f[CF,I]  f[ASSH,MI] f[MI].  that small  indicates infant  income  holdings  Equations income  2  that  general  mortality  rate  (I), cultural  3 are s e l f  i s a function  holdings,  paddy  yield  rate  (IMR),  female  6  8  1 6 9  See D i a g r a m  11.  (GFR)  is a  literacy  (CF), average s i z e of  females  at  marriage  explanatory. Equation  of c u l t u r a l  equations.  fertility  factors  (ASSH), and age of and  seven r e g r e s s i o n  factors,  ( P Y ) , and major  D e p a r t m e n t o f C e n s u s and S t a t i s t i c s , Survey, S r i Lanka, 1975, First Report", I m p l e m e n t a t i o n , Colombo, 1978 1  9  f[FLIT,I]  The a b o v e model c o m p r i s e s  small  6  f  ASSH =  (FLIT),  1  f[ASSH,MI,T]  T =  of  II:  f[CF,ASSH,PY,MI]  PY =  function  model, which  f[FLIT,CF]  I =  1  i n chapter  analysis  f[IMR,FLIT,I CF,ASSH,AM]  FLIT =  Equation  path  t h r o u g h t h e use of t h e f o l l o w i n g  b a s e d on t h e p a t h d i a g r a m p r e s e n t e d GFR  for  4  (AM).  indicates  average size irrigation  of  (MI).  "World Fertility Ministry of P l a n  76  Equation size  5 i n d i c a t e s t h a t paddy y i e l d  of  (T).  small  Equations  holdings,  major  6 and 7 a r e s e l f  i s a function of  irrigation,  average  and t r a n s p l a n t i n g  explanatory.  Measure o f F e r t i l i t y - t h e dependent v a r i a b l e General of  fertility  calculated district given  age of the  in this  by d i v i d i n g by  year.  because  rate  study.  (GFR) i s employed a s a measure  The  general  t h e a n n u a l number  t h e number o f women a g e d  1 7 0  T h i s measure  fertility  rather  fertility  than  i s superior  i s defined  fertility  of l i v e  from to  rate  births  i n each  15 t o 44 y e a r s crude  birth  i n t e r m s o f women o f c h i l d b e a r i n g  i n terms of t h e g e n e r a l  1971 C e n s u s o f P o p u l a t i o n . since  i t i s reported  was 98.7% c o m p l e t e  by 1 9 6 7 .  ina rate  p o p u l a t i o n . The  number  women o f c h i l d b e a r i n g age i n e a c h d i s t r i c t was o b t a i n e d  reliable,  is  1 7 1  These data  that  are probably  the r e g i s t r a t i o n  of  from quite  births  1 7 2  Robert Repetto, Economic E q u a l i t y and F e r t i l i t y i n Developing Countries, Resources for the Future, Inc., W a s h i n g t o n , 1979, p.31 1 7 0  Table S i x , P o p u l a t i o n by Sex a n d F i v e - Y e a r age g r o u p s f o r D i s t r i c t s by Urban and R u r a l A r e a s , C e n s u s o f P o p u l a t i o n , 1971 1 7 1  1 7 2  I b i d . , p.99  77  Measures  of e x p l a n a t o r y v a r i a b l e s Reasons  mortality  indicators  mortality  rates  number o f  infant  obtained  for  have  1971  were  provided obtained  1000  mortality been  f o r age  available  Dallas  directly  from  other Infant  districts;  specifically,  live  i n 1971,  births  were  m a r r i e d aged  of P o p u l a t i o n ,  These  the Department  also  1 7  of females at marriage.  1 7 5  the  Censuses. "  i n the Census  Fernando.  over  discussed.  p e r c e n t a g e o f women c u r r e n t l y  not  by  already  GOSL D i s t r i c t  u s e d a s a measure  data  infant  individual  deaths per  from t h e The  19 was  for selecting  1 7 3  data  were  of C e n s u s  and  15 t o These  but  no  are  doubt  Statistics  and a r e r e a s o n a b l y a c c u r a t e . Yotopoulos development, to  increase  increase rates".  points  literacy  out  that,  r a t e s and  f o r both males  and  "as  educational  f e m a l e s " , but  i n f e m a l e e d u c a t i o n i s more l i k e l y 1 7 6  Female  literacy  was  selected  a  byproduct  levels  are  notes  that  to a f f e c t  f o r use  of  likely "the  fertility  i n the  model,  173 r p term e x p l a n a t o r y v a r i a b l e s i s used r a t h e r than the term independent v a r i a b l e s in order to avoid confusion. T e c h n i c a l l y speaking, each i n d i v i d u a l e q u a t i o n i n the statistical model employed has one dependent v a r i a b l e and s e v e r a l i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s . Viewed i n t h i s manner, many variables which are d e p i c t e d a s i n t e r m e d i a t e between m a j o r i r r i g a t i o n and f e r t i l i t y in Diagram II and Diagram III are both independent and d e p e n d e n t , d e p e n d i n g upon w h i c h e q u a t i o n one i s l o o k i n g a t . n  1  7  4  e  Census  of p o p u l a t i o n ,  1971,  G e n e r a l Report  Dallas F.S. Fernando, "Nuptiality, Mortality and Fertility i n S r i Lanka", S c i e n c e , No.11, 1977 1 7 5  1  7  6  Pan  Y o t o p o u l o s , Op.  C i t . , p.33  Education, Infant J o u r n a l of B i o s o c i a l  78  rather  than  male  coefficients. general rate,  female  variables female  Female  no  and  it  exaggerated  their  considered  by  be  reasonably  any  of  attainment, while  number  deferral  s u c h a s number of use  of  analysis.  this GFR  and  Another  that  is  in  while  to  -.68.  or  over life.  determine  some r e s p o n d e n t s these  of Census and  the  is  everyday  order  that  between  aged t e n y e a r s  may  have  data  Statistics  is  employed  possible  measures  theoretical  fertility  school-aged  in this  are to  females  to  be  a  15 t o  a  educational  the  effect  t o employ an  would s i g n i f i c a n t l y  i s conceived  of  rather  reasons. For i n s t a n c e ,  to capture  would be  study,  19  in  function  of  indicator  school,  narrow t h e  F o r a more d e t a i l e d comment on t h i s particular C e n s u s of P o p u l a t i o n G e n e r a l R e p o r t , pp.111-113. 1 7 7  was  mortality  on  for  independent  -.74,  enumerators,  t h e b e s t way  indicator  fertility  reason  with  infant  females  given  to  for  that on  general  and  1 7 7  of  primarily  literacy  of male l i t e r a c y  mortality  possible  abilities  correlation  i n s t a n c e , the c o r r e l a t i o n  was  literacy  i t is clear  marriage  is  accurate.  a  and  w r i t e a s h o r t statement test  of  female  correlated  t h e GOSL D e p a r t m e n t  Female than  2. F o r infant  and  objective  literacy,  instead  i s t h e number of  read  basis  respectively.  more s t r o n g l y  and  the  between  between male l i t e r a c y  literacy  could  on  male l i t e r a c y  literacy  was  literacy  and  -.78  in equation  correlation  While  and  literacy  ,  correlation rate,  -.81  selecting  who  The  fertility is  female  literacy  of  scope  the of  marital  data,  see  79  fertility that  as  well  anyone who  various the  has  use  of b i r t h  education  care,  it  is  illiterate,  achieved  basic  indicators the  anticipated  literacy  can  information  with  that  higher  between  i s a broad d i v i s i o n  order  were  and i t i s v e r y  c o n t r o l . Furthermore, while  i s associated  there  In  capita  age a t m a r r i a g e ,  a d v e r t i s e m e n t s and/or w r i t t e n  higher  to  as  to  tested;  obtain  a  i t is clear  levels  health  the l i t e r a t e  and t h e  i n t e r m s of h e a l t h  measure  commonly  used  as  a  quintiles.  measure  for  for  Income  income  s t u d i e s . The o t h e r  income i n d i c a t o r s were  some e v i d e n c e  t h e income  associated  that with  population:  1 7  fertility  of than  the  three  income  and per  going  income p e r capita  is  cross-national  tested is  income  care.  income,  in  poor  the  that  of  income p e r c a p i t a , % t o t a l  two  understand  p e r t a i n i n g to  b o t t o m two q u i n t i l e s o f t h e p o p u l a t i o n , f o r the bottom  likely  since  there i s  more  closely  of  the  total  8  By now i t i s c l e a r that both levels and rates of growth in economics have relatively l i t t l e association with levels or rates o f change in fertility. Some r e s e a r c h e r s have s u g g e s t e d t h a t t h e l a c k o f a s s o c i a t i o n i s due t o t h e f a c t t h a t income c h a n g e s f o r t h e p o o r m a j o r i t y , who bear t h e l a r g e m a j o r i t y of c h i l d r e n , a r e m u f f l e d out of i n n a t i o n a l a g g r e g a t e s by income c h a n g e s for the m i n o r i t y of the p o p u l a t i o n with the majority o f p u r c h a s i n g power. C o r r e l a t i o n s between c h a n g e s i n income levels of the poorest 40 per cent o f a p o p u l a t i o n and national f e r t i l i t y are reasonably close. The l e v e l  1 7 8  of c o r r e l a t i o n  Nick Eberstadt,  between  Op. C i t .  income  per  capita  of  the  80  bottom  two d e c i l e s  correlation rate  between  and % income  fertility available Lanka.  is  and g e n e r a l  fertility  income  capita  going  +.11  and  and may  farm  incomes  fluctuate  way  of  knowing  zone  likely  derives  that  some e x t e n t , that net  to  correlation  contain  distortions  seasonally.  i t s income  gross  income  i s obtained,  indicate than  it is  7  9  data  over a  two-  fact  that  net i n c o m e . likely  the  that  in  no  farm the  i t i s probably f a r m incomes t o  incomes  yield  is  represent  I t i s important  that  are  Bank o f S r i  employed  reflects  p r o v i d e a measure of g r o s s studies  general  Furthermore, there  from a g r i c u l t u r e ,  i s not c e r t a i n .  and  to the  t o which these data  U n p u b l i s h e d d a t a o b t a i n e d from L a n k a by D r . B a r r i e M. M o r r i s o n 1  1 8 0  due  t h a n 50% o f t h e p o p u l a t i o n  but t h i s  incomes. F i e l d  related  t h e s e d a t a were c o m p i l e d  and t h e fertility  These  from t h e C e n t r a l  t h e Bank o f S r i L a n k a d a t a  these data  general  respectively.  districts  the extent  i n c o m e s . As b e t t e r dry  +.15  Unfortunately,  month p e r i o d  and  i s +.18,  t o t h e b o t t o m two q u i n t i l e s  for individual  1 7 9  per  rate  rather  i s more 1 8 1  the  Central  to  Even  note than  closely if a  high  relationship  Bank  of  Sri  I f a l l d i s t r i c t s had t h e same f a r m p o p u l a t i o n , t h i s m i g h t not p o s e a p r o b l e m . However, t h e p o p u l a t i o n w h i c h is employed in a g r i c u l t u r e v a r i e s from a low o f 33% i n J a f f n a t o a h i g h o f 78% i n P o l o n n a r u w a . 1  8  0  For instance, i n Anuradhapura, operators under minor schemes o b t a i n e d h i g h e r n e t income than f a r m e r s under major schemes, even though f a r m e r s under m a j o r schemes had h i g h e r y i e l d s and h i g h e r g r o s s i n c o m e . T h i s i s b e c a u s e farmers under m i n o r schemes i n c u r r e d l e s s e x p e n s e s . See ARTI, Op. C i t . , p.92. 1 8 1  81  between not  so  agricultural s t r o n g as  equation  4  the  is  income d a t a  must be  influence  tested:  with  rate  were The  rate  factors,  %  is  and  data  Statistics,  is  for just  the  are  b a s e d upon  cultural  and  are  are almost Buddhists,  with  correlation In  1 8 3  used.  In  under  16%  the  comprise 10%  an is  from  reported.  the  fertility  and  measure  total  additional  the Department  general cultural  under  study,  population. 74%  predominantly  six  fertility  general  districts  of  above  general  to  and  correlation  the  between %Moor order  factors  %Muslim,  of  between % M u s l i m and  remaining  well  two  the  i n d i c a t o r s were  %Hindu,  only  where  caution.  six different  correlated  available  Correlation provided in Table 1 8 3  results  which  %Sinhalese,  +.6530.  Buddhists  p o p u l a t i o n , and  Tamils invariably  in  income i s  Particularly  considerable  and  religion,  the  Muslim  Muslims account  1 8 2  ways  correlation  fertility  These  several  highly  i s +.6541, and  Hindus  disposable  W h i l e e a c h e t h n i c g r o u p showed a s t r o n g  indicators 1 8 2  statistical with  %Moor,  net  suggest.  accepted  i t s corresponding  rate.  might  fertility,  %Tamil,  %Buddhist.  data  concerned,  There are might  d e v e l o p m e n t and  of  the  Christian. of C e n s u s  and  1 8 4  i n v a r i a b l y Hindus, Sinhalese are almost and Moors a r e a l m o s t i n v a r i a b l y M u s l i m s .  coefficients 11.  for  the  other  S t a t i s t i c a l A b s t r a c t of S r i L a n k a , 1973 Percentage Distribution of the Population R e l i g i o n - C e n s u s 1971, D e p a r t m e n t of Census Colombo, 1975, p.38 + T a b l e f o r E t h n i c Comp.  i n d i c a t o r s are  1 8 4  by and  Table 21, D i s t r i c t and Statistics,  82  Average measure within  f o r the  size size  t h e paddy  of  distribution  than  average  holders  crop.  A l l holdings  small  found  estates.  The  acres  The district,  and  district,  a  less  than  figure  average  size  the  percentage  s i n c e paddy  50 a c r e s  were  includes  but e x c l u d e s  of s m a l l  of  paddy of  holdings  of small holdings  which  i n the d i s t r i c t s  percentage  (ASSH) i s used a s a  agricultural  of h o l d i n g s ,  i n some d i s t r i c t s  t o 5.8 a c r e s  Lanka.  size  holdings,  holdings  of  s e c t o r . Average s i z e  rather  as  small holdings  under  i s a small classified  larger  most  holdings  i s used  paddy  commercial  ranged  from  1.3  study.  transplanted major  a r e a v a i l a b l e from t h e S t a t i s t i c a l  irrigation Abstract  in  each  i n each for S r i  1 8 5  las b l e 67, 'Paddy: C u l t i v a t i o n D e t a i l s - Maha 1970-71' and T a b l e 63, 'Paddy: E x t e n t C u l t i v a t e d and Y i e l d - Maha 197071'. Agricultural data may be subject to reporting error, a l t h o u g h d a t a on water s u p p l y conditions i s probably fairly accurate. S  e  e  T a  83  Table  12: C o r r e l a t i o n s Between A l t e r n a t i v e Indicators and G e n e r a l F e r t i l i t y Rate  Variable  Indicators  Correlation Coef f i c i e n t  Mortality  CDR I MR  +.1383 +.6167  Literacy  FLIT MLIT  -.8084 -.7822  Income  Culture  I/capi ta I/capita (lower 2 d e c i l e s ) % Total I ( t o lower 2 d e c i l e s )  +.1108 +.1845 + . 1485  % Moor % Muslim  +.6530 +.6541  % %  Tamil Hindu  +.0898 +.0712  % %  Sinhalese Buddhist  -.3300 -.2816  84  Chapter  IV  1 . Introduction The  primary  whether a g r i c u l t u r a l fertility Diagram and  o b j e c t i v e of  development  differentials  I I , which  analysis  it  development,  indicators,  and  fertility.  hypotheses  underlying  IV t o p r e s e n t  diagram  provide  an  numerical  analysis.  results  representing account case in  II  the  twelve  quantitative  separate  III.  It  statistical  The  and  analysis  dry  i s not based  implications which  of  1971.  frame  and of  social different  using  is  purpose  the  of  between  tested,  findings  zone  qualitative  section,  useful  strength  for  economic  linkages  were  o b t a i n e d , which are  s t u d i e s . Wider a  the  a  in  for  economic  relative  a n a l y s i s as d e s c r i b e d i n c h a p t e r chapter  scheme  possible  various The  determine  zone of S r i L a n k a  provides  envisages  i s to  some e x p l a n a t i o n  Yotopoulos'  interactions,  since  agricultural  on  study  provides  i n the dry  i s based  demographic  this  path of  o b t a i n e d , and  based on  solely  on  aggregate  districts,  the data  takes  into  information available  from  the  but  to  f i n d i n g s are  appears  at  the  presented end  of  this  chapter.  2.  Statistical  R e s u l t s and  Statistical equations  presented  coefficients  {beta  Conclusions  results in  values)  the  obtained previous  representing  from  the  chapter the  regression  included path  'direct  causal'  effects the  1 8 6  in  following  See  model path  Chapter  1.  1 8 6  These c o e f f i c i e n t s  diagram:  III.  are  represented  86  Diagram I I I P a t h Diagram D e p i c t i n g t h e R e l a t i v e S t r e n g t h of R e l a t i o n s h i p s Among D i f f e r e n t V a r i a b l e s and F e r t i l i t y  3 31  a < a h-  O  •a 3 n> 3  3 (0 Q.  < 01 •1 01  a* ra cn  o  m 3 O  (N 1 Oi  T3 3"  < 01 01  87  between  In o r d e r  to c a l c u l a t e  variables  represented  discriminate following procedures Table  between  decomposition outlined  13: G e n e r a l  Bivariate Relationship  GFR,IMR GFR,FLIT GFR, I GFR,M GFR,ASSH GFR,AM IMR,FLIT IMR, I AM,FLIT AM,M FLIT,M FLIT,I I ,M I ,MI I ,PY I,ASSH PY,T PY,MI PY,ASSH T,ASSH T,MI ASSH,WSC It best  causal  Decomposition  .62 -.81 .18 .65 .30 .91 -.74 -.19 -.66 .77 -.56 .14 -.03 .47 .61 .32 .64 .83 .26 .25 .34 -.15 i s clear  predictor  and  of g e n e r a l  causal'  diagram  non-causal was  Table  .03 -.44 .06 .04 .24 .52 -.73 -.08 -.33 .59 -.56 .16 .03 .1 1 .46 .22 .30 .77 .30 .31 .39 -.15 from  path  and  effects,  to the  following  1 8 7  f o r Path Model I  Causal Indi rect (c)  -  Total (D) (B+C)  Non - C a u s a l (E)  .03 -.63 -.04 .30 .23 .52 -.73 -.19 -.33 .77 -.56 .16 .03 .46 .46 .40 .30 .83 .39 .31 .34 -.15  -.19  -.10 .26 -.02 - . -.11 .18 .00 .35 .18 -• .06 .09 -.05 —  c o l u m n B o f t h e above t a b l e fertility  effects  I,  constructed  manual:  Direct (B)  Norman N i e , e t . a l . , SPSS, Y o r k , 1975, pp.287-289 1 8 7  in  table  i n t h e SPSS  Total Covariance (A)  the ' i n d i r e c t  rate  is  Second E d i t i o n ,  %married  (A-D) .59 -.17 .23 .35 .07 .39 -.01 .01 -.33 .00 .00 -.02 .00 .01 .15 -.08 .34 .00 -.13 -.05 .00 .00 that the females  McGraw-Hill,  New  88  aged that  15-19 high  years  age  (+.52). T h i s  at  influences  sexual  i n t e r c o u r s e and  to  the  childbearing  of  hypothesis insofar the  dry  the  zone  Survey  to  to  explanation  1970  decline  support  The  next  this  best  female  literacy  literacy  i s e m p l o y e d as  rising  (-.44).  As  use  not  p o s s i b l e t o d i s c r i m i n a t e the the  i n d i c a t o r has  statistical  indicator  female  population  with  on  the  b a s i s of  precise not  the  in order  formal the  conclusions relation  general  between  than  from  rate  is  female  some  measure  scope of a n a l y s i s . in that  i t is  to  the  the  education  and  m a r r i a g e p o s t p o n e m e n t . Such  and  and  relation  female  come  to  whether  female  age  between  extrapolations  m a r r i a g e and  the  possible,  to  t o s u c h t h i n g s as  primarily  age  a l l of  obtained,  literacy  for  instance,  I t i s t h e r e f o r e not  results  female  discussion on this thesis.  period  previously,  i n t o account  respect  in  main  mechanism(s) which account  takes  due  the  fertility  the  is  See the C h a p t e r II of  the  major drawback,  education.  with  power  1 8 8  t o broaden  statistical  The  Fertility  of m a r r i a g e was  marriage  1 8 8  World  a s s o c i a t i o n s found. For  literacy  has.  differentials  the  mentioned  one  it  shortens  explanatory  indicator rather  The  many of  age  p r e d i c t o r of  female e d u c a t i o n this  in  because  woman  fertility  conclusion.  an  a  i n S r i Lanka d u r i n g  of  of  1971  hypothesis  effectively  considerable of  the  fertility  which  Findings  indicate that  fertility  years  have  i s concerned.  which  c a u s e of 1960  appears  as  supports  marriage  reduces exposure number  finding  or at  higher must  fertility  in  89  be  made  on t h e b a s i s  theoretical from that  the high  number  1)  considerations, statistical  female  of  support  literacy  several  their  increases;  2)  family  planning  higher  education  control  Abayaratne  above  directly  i n chapter I I  t o low f e r t i l i t y statistical  fertility  due t o a  result  lends  i n chapter I I :  b e c a u s e women  often  Lanka a  leads  desire f o r the  This  that  generally  fertility  Jayawardene's to increased f o r small strong  in  the  discussion  of  family  planning  best  See fertility  since  of e d u c a t i o n increased  evidence  I t i s clear  methods by  f o r the  discussion on i n chapter I I .  that  the  high  with  education i n  relation  possible  between  and f e r t i l i t y  S r i Lankan  mobility  another  from t h e e v i d e n c e  strong  Mary  h a d become a  for social  relation  t h e 1950's, a n d t h a t  3)  knowledge o f b i r t h  provides  statistical  and  i n S r i L a n k a by 1970.  aspirations families  s i z e and  increase,  i s consistent  decisions  highly  decisions  family  self-determination  on c o n t r a c e p t i o n  explanations  planning toward  conclusion  feminine  and f e r t i l i t y .  increased  attitudes  facilitates  1 8 9  in marital and  family  change a s l e v e l s  literacy  1 8 9  lead  and v a r i o u s  concluded  I t was s u g g e s t e d  over  traditional  techniques.  force  reason  be  of t h e hypotheses p r e s e n t e d  control  Bishop's evidence  the  The  studies  l e s s c h i l d r e n t h a n men, and a s women become more  educated  and  should  e d u c a t e d women have l o w e r  real  i n other  and c a n n o t  results.  mechanisms.  to  desire  Sri  of f i n d i n g s  women  presented  that  the use  has  greatly  t h i s may p r o v i d e d direct  between  female  effect  one o f between  e d u c a t i o n and  90  female  literacy The  and  fertility.  results  r e p o r t e d i n the p r e v i o u s  indicate  that f e r t i l i t y  marriage  than  D,  when  female  both  %married  in  S r i Lanka,  to  an  females  aged  this It  in  finding  was  at marriage number  i s not  of  hypothesized  between  female  literacy  and  results  obtained  indicate  t h a t the  provide is  infant  support  positively  which  literacy,  cannot  related  however,  associated  with  II.  See  hypothesis with  high  the  that  high  this  on  even  levels  does  t h e d i s c u s s i o n on  not  child  have  education  an  and  due  to a  of  female  (-.73), child  The  results. female and  appreciable  fertility  link  statistical  and care  extent  m o r t a l i t y are  care  female  between  literacy.  though h i g h  of  due  strong  that q u a l i t y  b a s i s of t h e s e  1971  obtaining higher  fertility  infant  to  entirely  m o r t a l i t y . The  female  15-19  literacy  II t h a t h i g h  relationship  b r e a s t f e e d i n g , and  concluded  1 9 0  infant  on  1 9 0  mortality is relatively  f o r the  be d e t e r m i n e d  mortality,  low  into  aged  female  almost  in chapter  a s s o c i a t e d with  column  influence  that p r i o r  females  of  taken  females of  was  surprising.  s h o u l d be  and  %married  age  from  are  greater  (-.33). G i v e n  literacy  literacy  a  to the e f f e c t  15-19  the  is clear  effects  has  (-.63) t h a n  i n c r e a s e d age  increase  education,  indirect  primarily  paragraphs  i n f l u e n c e d more by  However, a s  literacy  rate  i s due  on  and  female  fertility  (+.52). T h i s  literacy.  direct  consideration general  is directly  two  to  related  I t must  be  literacy  is  low  infant  effect  in  on  chapter  91  fertility. general  The  relationship  fertility  evident  that  hypotheses  the  do  not  differentials mortality  rate  in  has  between  proved  infant  t o be v e r y weak  child-survival provide  this  fallen  mortality  much  and  case.  (+.03). I t  is  child-replacement  explanation  particular  and  for  fertility  Evidently  below  some c r i t i c a l  level  prior  and h a s c e a s e d t o be a m a j o r  cause of h i g h  fertility  infant t o 1971,  i n the dry  zone. It effect,  %Muslim has the t h i r d  fertility direct  rate  effect  effects the  literacy.  on g e n e r a l  total  is  +.77  strong  socio-economic community.  1 9 1  than  levels  See d i s c u s s i o n  of  this  i t s indirect  %Muslim  i s likely peculiar  on c u l t u r a l  religious  factor,  These are  these findings  relatively  due t o v a r i o u s to  the  communities.  accounts  due t o  on  i s t h a t M u s l i m women t e n d  women from o t h e r  general  15-19 and f e m a l e  of s c h o o l i n g  factors  p r o b a b l y more t h a n any o t h e r  1 9 1  on  i s primarily  respectively.  and t h a t  The n e t r e s u l t  (+.04),  f e m a l e s aged  effect  -.56  and r e l i g i o u s  rate  (+.26). T h i s  causal  girls,  influence  causal  % M u s l i m does n o t have a s t r o n g  fertility  the hypothesis that  f o r Muslim  earlier  While  and  i n terms of t o t a l  strongest  o f % M u s l i m on % m a r r i e d The  indicators  low  (+.30).  are relatively  effect  support  i s important t o note that  Muslim  t o marry 1 9 2  f o r the  f a c t o r s and f e r t i l i t y  This, high  i n chapter  II.  1  9  2  Department  of Census  and S t a t i s t i c s ,  1978, Op. C i t . , p.79  92  levels  of  fertility  populations:  1 9  in  districts  with  large  Muslim  3  Differentials in fertility a r e most affected by d i f f e r e n t i a l s i n age a t marriage. For example, fertility declines with increasing l e v e l s of education, almost entirely because better-educated women marry l a t e r . The h i g h f e r t i l i t y of t h e Muslims i s due mainly to their early age at marriage... The virtue total  of  i t s effect  e f f e c t of c u l t u r e  because  the  negligible  farm  be of  the  of  fertility  by  t o be weak, s i n c e t h e  negligible  income  on  (+.03),  fertility  from t h e p a t h diagram as w e l l table  t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p between practices  some s u p p o r t  positively paddy y i e l d  water  influences  on income was  decomposition  management  also  culture  on income p r o v e d  effect  i s evident  general  concerning  is  total  that  and  was  also  as  from  (- . 0 4 ) . It  the  hypothesis  supply  water  and y i e l d  on income conditions  with  supply  that  income, s i n c e  i s +.46. The t o t a l on income  supply  those  hypotheses conditions,  are probably v a l i d .  f o r the hypothesis  associated  e f f e c t s o f water  that  i s also  conditions  on  paddy y i e l d  There might  the d i r e c t e f f e c t causal  +.46,  effect  of  l a r g e l y due t o  transplanting  and  yield. The indicates  1 9 3  information  that  I b i d . , p.154  there  is  provided little  i n the decomposition support  for  any  of  table the  93  hypotheses  linking  agricultural  development  particularly  those hypotheses which suggest  development  might  on  income. W h i l e  development  influence there  is  i s associated  some  that  directly  o r i n d i r e c t l y . The t o t a l  major  irrigation  relation solely The  i s very  to  the  positive,  on  between  effect  -.04.  It is  of  it  on  infant  of  high  on f e r t i l i t y  o f major the  somewhat and  been  o f paddy y i e l d on income  (+.46).  that  and  the  is  female  total  infant  poor  families  unlikely  that  mortality  than  food  increase  i n S r i Lanka by a b o u t income  would  be  20%.  a better  female l i t e r a c y , g i v e n  Isenman, Op. C i t . , p.240  1 9 4  was  (+.16), and t h e rate  effect  i s only  of  female  t o be g r e a t e r  mortality  mortality  subsidies  literacy  fertility  (-.73) p r o v e d  income on i n f a n t  that  (+.46). The almost  t h e i m p o r t a n c e o f income t o  estimated  of  due  o f income on g e n e r a l  on  effect  weaker  income  either  i r r i g a t i o n on  total  b u t r e l a t i v e l y weak  o f income  effects  i s nothing to  income  mortality  of i t s  income, t h e r e  might  were n o t f o r t h e e x i s t e n c e o f t h e Government  which d i m i n i s h  1 9 4  high  interest  total effect  effect  effect  agricultural  agricultural  effect  is  fertility,  that  influence  irrigation  as h y p o t h e s i z e d ,  causal  by v i r t u e  (+.83), w h i l e  income  direct  total  literacy  much  strong  between major  relation  the  has  that  evidence  with high  suggest  paddy y i e l d  income  fertility  with  (-.19).  The  be g r e a t e r i f  food  subsidies,  nutrition. the r e a l Even  It  has  income of  so,  predictor  the r e s u l t s  than  of  i t is infant  obtained  in  94  other  studies:  1 9  5  Many o b s e r v e r s argue, in fact, that i g n o r a n c e i s a more d e a d l y f o e of young children than p o v e r t y i s - though the two so o f t e n go together that i t is difficult to separate their effects. But t h e e v i d e n c e seems t o s u p p o r t t h e i r c o n t e n t i o n . . . In S r i L a n k a , more t h a n 44 percent of the adult women have c o m p l e t e d p r i m a r y s c h o o l , and v i r t u a l l y everyone in the younger age-groups l e a r n s a t l e a s t t o r e a d and write. In Pakistan and Bangladesh in t h e mids e v e n t i e s , by c o n t r a s t , o n l y about 10 percent of the g i r l s f i n i s h e d p r i m a r y s c h o o l . The d i f f e r e n c e i s r e f l e c t e d in t h e i r i n f a n t m o r t a l i t y r a t e s of 142 and 139 respectively, compared with Sri L a n k a ' s of 42. On t h e o t h e r s i d e o f t h e coin are wealthy c o u n t r i e s such as Libya and Gabon where illiteracy is s t i l l w i d e s p r e a d and i n f a n t mortality, not s u r p r i s i n g l y , r e m a i n s h i g h . There fertility size.  1 9 6  i n the dry The  holdings  on  i n c r e a s e s as hypothesis  security  some zone  farm  farm  size  farm size  effect  is  size  because:  discussion  farm  of  1)  children  of  agricultural  that  fertility  supports be  labour  2)  Mortality Dec. 1981,  the  positively requirements  a r e a major  f a m i l i e s when t h e y  i n chapter I I .  function  should  societies,  Kathleen Newland, "Infant S o c i e t i e s " , WorldWatch Paper No. 47, See  that  finding  fertility  1 9 5  1 9 6  size  This  i n c r e a s e s and  farm  a  hypothesis  indicating  increases. of  the  partly of  +.24,  in traditional  f o r heads o f  for  i s at l e a s t  levels  labour  support  causal  fertility  with  i n c r e a s e as farm  direct  that  associated  of  is  children reach  source provide  old  and Health pp.26-27  age,  in  95  and  3)  children  farmers  with  in order  to prevent  economically small  unviable  holders  will  small  farmers lucky  Also,  1 9 7  can  land  enough  to  phenomenon can  to a v o i d having  size  of  sons.  becomes a v a i l a b l e t o s m a l l  holders.  existence  holdings  children.  farmers  to  a  are the  the  clearly dry  other  labour  Furthermore,  of  future  1 9 9  by  In  i n Manupur, having  hire  to  dry  children,  if  they  are  Mamdani,  this  saving  the  large  outside  more  holdings  into  technology  z o n e , many of  i n c o l o n i z a t i o n schemes, where  the  and  saving  it  schemes, so t h e r e  means  influence  and  increase  colonization as  found  of v a r i o u s c o - o p e r a t i v e s ,  wheel t r a c t o r s for  are  that  having  labour  numbers of  holdings  to  According  1 9 8  providing  small  by  their  reversed  the  be  have  of  fragmentation  i t i s believed that  i n c r e a s e the  fewer  It i s interesting  numbers of c h i l d r e n i n o r d e r labour.  have  fragmentation  units. risk  holdings  is  of  i s no  their  patterns  of  different  from those  holdings  The  2-  need  possible  i n c e n t i v e t o use  small  of  reduces the  legally  aquisition.  fertility  availability  devices  not  size  land  the  the  for  within children  f a c t o r s which  holders  i n f l u e n c i n g small  in  Manupur  holders  in  zone.  Mahmood Mamdani, The Myth of P o p u l a t i o n C o n t r o l ; C a s t e , and C l a s s i n an I n d i a n V i l l a g e , Monthly Review New Y o r k , 1972, p.76. 1 9 7  1 9 8  Ibid.,  1 9 9  Ibid.,  p.77.  pp.77-78  Family Press,  96  The yield  was  total  +.40,  agricultural the  which  lends  productivity  support  to  increases  the  with  districts  therefore studies  i n t h e sample  quite  which  consistent  farm  begins  to d e c l i n e .  size  f a r m s i z e was It  probably  not  with  i n d i c a t e that  until  was  The  obtained  clear  influenced  during  as e x p e c t e d , that  the r a t e  the p e r i o d  which  development  i n 1950  development  during  these  and  have  would  naturally  irrigation  been  over  1960,  This  the  t i m e , and  t i m e . The  most  but v e r y  1946  rate  of  agricultural greatest  since  increases increases  in f e r t i l i t y  projects  in  major  in yield  in d i s t r i c t s  during  the  farm  in  districts  irrigation  See d i s c u s s i o n on t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p between a g r i c u l t u r a l p r o d u c t i v i t y i n c h a p t e r 2. 0  the  agricultural  rapid  l e v e l s of a g r i c u l t u r a l development  in  of  major  high  with  y i e l d s , were  surprising, of  in  a s measured  s t u d y has been  over  0  (-.15).  levels  the  acre  2  weak  i n 1971,  the g r e a t e s t  net d e c r e a s e  irrigation  t o 1971. D i s t r i c t s  and p e r a c r e  under  i s not  major  the  high  beneficiaries show  from w h i c h p o i n t i t  decline  and  the p e r i o d  same d i s t r i c t s .  which  had  increases  of f e r t i l i t y  from  conditions  ARTI  has  l e v e l s of a g r i c u l t u r a l development  districts  the  development  high  same  in  agricultural  zone  supply  findings are  agricultural productivity  dry  t e r m s o f water  These  reported  six acres,  that  holdings  r e l a t i o n s h i p between  negative  is  hypothesis  on  However,  acres.  findings  reaches about 2 0 0  5.8  holdings  farm s i z e .  maximum f i g u r e f o r a v e r a g e s i z e o f s m a l l  for  and  e f f e c t of a v e r a g e s i z e of s m a l l  per with  1946-1971  size  and  97  period in  has n o t been g r e a t e r  districts  with  Furthermore, fertility varies 1971  if  agricultural  district  to  explanation  It  was  development involving  for  and  agricultural  increases  suggested  in  increases  productivity  same p e r i o d , a r e l a r g e l y  agricultural welfare  The welfare  result  result  A  i s therefore  is  since  Jayawardene s t a t e d  a  mechanisms  reduction  with  lower  higher  considerable  to  brief  do  higher  fertility, expenditures  evidence  o f GOSL s o c i a l  overview  that during  in mortality  with  of  I t was  h e a l t h , and e d u c a t i o n  during welfare  achievements of  GOSL  in  social  in order.  GOSL has been c o m m i t t e d  expenditure  agricultural  of f e r t i l i t y .  in  in  the product  little  development.  policies  fertility  through  lead to  1946 t o 1971, and d e c r e a s e s  have  that  i n income a s s o c i a t e d  of n u t r i t i o n ,  the  and  which  there  period  policies,  fertility  might  the  2  a reduction  i n income c o u l d However,  from  provide  district-wise  chapter  influence  that  in levels  would  that  i s not the case.  extension,  schooling.  be e x p e c t e d  development  1971  by  increases  i t might  development  and F e r t i l i t y  might  suggested  since  development.  d e v e l o p m e n t has b e e n a f a c t o r i n  income and n u t r i t i o n ,  mortality also  in fertility  agricultural  district,  This clearly  Government P o l i c y  J.R.  of  differentials in agricultural  differentials.  on  levels  the net decrease  d e c l i n e , and i f t h e r a t e o f a g r i c u l t u r a l  from  some  3.  low  than  to a high  level  of s o c i a l  I n d e p e n d e n c e . As M i n i s t e r o f  i n 1948: "We  are  spending  Finance  both  from  98  current  revenue  as w e l l  as  million,  or about  40%  our  services". 30%  of  From  2 0 1  total  transfer  and  The programme,  d i s c u s s e d . There in  crude  at  least  death  facilities  in  centres  considerable maternity  and  of  introduced  r a t e s which  in rural  facilities  e x p e n d i t u r e was f u n d s went  the expansion  the  GOSL's  in  1946,  i s e v i d e n c e , however, t h a t  partly  due  the 2 0 4  areas adopted  emphasis  c e n t r e s . The  welfare  allocated toward of h e a l t h  malaria has  to  food and  was  development  A policy rather in  rapid  expansion  of  late  of  been  decline  1940's  health  of s p r e a d i n g h e a l t h  was care care  t h a n c o n c e n t r a t i n g them i n  the  placed  control  already  the  occurred d u r i n g the  to  areas.  rural was  on  270.6  2 0 3  effectiveness first  o f Rs.  expenditure,  b u l k of t h e s e  sugar)  services.  f u n d s a sum  t o t h e mid-1960's a p p r o x i m a t e l y  Government The  2 0 2  loan  total  through  annual  (rice  educational  urban  1950  payments.  subsidies  of  from  middle on  the  medical  1940's, construction  and  and of  para-medical  G o d f r e y G u n a t i l l e k e , W e l f a r e and Growth i n S r i L a n k a , Marga I n s t i t u t e , Marga R e s e a r c h S t u d y S e r i e s - 2 , Colombo, 1974, p.6 2 0 1  2  0  Ibid.,  2  p.17  and  p.24  203 b i e f o v e r v i e w o f t h e GOSL d e v e l o p m e n t s t r a t e g y from about 1940 onwards, see I b i d . S i m i l a r i n f o r m a t i o n i s p r o v i d e d by C a r r - G r e g g . See John R.E. C a r r - G r e g g , "The Colombo Plan: A Commonwealth Program f o r Southeast Asia", in International C o n c i l i a t i o n , No. 467, J a n . 1951, pp.42-43. F  o  r  See  a  r  R.H.  Gray,  Op.  C i t . , pp.217-221.  99  services with  continued  that  the  centres. Lanka  Medical  since  Government health infant  most  the  mortality  total  food  food  UNP  Government  Isenman  16/1000  i n 1946  By  there  at  or  c a n be l i t t l e impact  than  maternity  charge  and on l e v e l s  least  1980, more  in hospitals  s u b s i d i z a t i o n scheme  in S r i  doubt t h a t  on  levels  of  of maternal  and  this  1960's f o o d expenditure  due t o s e r i o u s  order  to  balance  reverse  welfare  rose  to  by t h e G o v e r n m e n t . Party)  faced  i n the terms  accounts the food  of  transfer  65%.  s u b s i d i e s accounted  the  strategy.  f o r 35% of t o t a l  figure  (United National  crisis  has g e n e r a l l y been  o f t h e GOSL's s o c i a l  s u b s i d i e s accounted  late  current  Plan.  in particular.  payments, and i n 1951/52 the  and  in general,  e x p e n s i v e component 1948/49,  care.  have had c o n s i d e r a b l e  and m o r t a l i t y  during  of m a t e r n i t y  i n accordance  d e c l i n e was  s e r v i c e s have been f r e e of 1940's  policies  The  Colombo  this  o f a l l b i r t h s took p l a c e  2 0 5  1960's  m a t e r n a l m o r t a l i t y d e c l i n e d from  due t o t h e s p r e a d  two-thirds  of  under  1.2/1000 i n 1970, and n o t e s t h a t  partly  In  t h e 1950's and  t h e GOSL's committment  reports to  during  2 0 6  Even  f o r about  20%  I n 1952  the  2 0 7  a major trade,  s u b s i d i e s were  financial and  in  drastically  Paul Isenman, "Basic Needs: The Case of S r i L a n k a " , i n W o r l d D e v e l o p m e n t , V o l . 8 , No.3, M a r c h 1980, p.240 2 0 5  2 0 6  G o d f r e y G u n a t i l l e k e , Op. C i t . , p.15  2 0 7  Paul  Isenman, Op.  C i t . , p.240  100  reduced. 1953/54  2 0 8  E x p e n d i t u r e s by t h e Government on f o o d  were o n l y  resulted  5%  of  what  they  were  i n v i o l e n t demonstrations throughout  was a major f a c t o r i n t h e UNP's d e f e a t Freedom fully  Party)  restored  seriously  by t h e SLFP, and s i n c e  attempted  to  risks.  of  uninterrupted  almost  There increased  continued  400  social  evidence  the  earning  It  been  which o c c u r r e d  the country,  and  1956  t o 1971  welfare that  was  early  GOSL  1970's.  month,  that  and  2 1 1  were  Government  has  15%  food  subsidies  late  G o d f r e y G u n a t i l l e k e , Op. C i t . , p.15  2 0 9  Excepting  1940's food  for families caloric in  i n the l e v e l  2 0 8  period  2 1 0  Government  of  a  have  have c o n t r i b u t e d  1000 Rs./month  increases  attendant  therefore  the  intake  i n 1974 c a n be d i r e c t l y  t h e UNP  subsidies  spending.  of t h e p o o r and may  between 600 and  shown  no  ( S r i Lanka  them b e c a u s e o f t h e  20% of c a l o r i c  Rs./  families has  This  by t h e SLFP  i n m o r t a l i t y w h i c h began i n  f o r about  than  remove  1945 t h r o u g h  is  until  accounted less  2 0 9  the n u t r i t i o n  decline  1951/52.  i n t h e 1956 e l e c t i o n s . The f o o d  political  the  in  subsidies in  attributed  to and  rations earning  intake for 1969/70.  2 1 2  of m o r t a l i t y to  cutbacks  i n 1977  The UNP Government r e a l i z e d i n 1965 t h a t t h e r e was a need t o i n c r e a s e t h e f u n d i n g o f e c o n o m i c d e v e l o p m e n t programmes, b u t additional f u n d s were o b t a i n e d more from f o r e i g n a i d t h a n by a r e d u c t i o n o f t r a n s f e r payments. See Godfrey unatilleke, Op. C i t . , pp.24-26. 2  1  0  2 1 1  Paul  Isenman, Op. C i t . , pp.240-242  2 1 2  I b i d . , p.241  101  in  the  i n age  food  s u b s i d i z a t i o n scheme, and  s t r u c t u r e or  importance mortality  of  subsidization  a d e t e r i o r a t i o n of h e a l t h  higher  would  be  minimal, given  between  Council  education  41.6%  only  16%  of of  dramatic  A Bill  in  the  1971  and  Paul  Isenman, Op.  2 1 4  G o d f r e y G u n a t i l l e k e , Op.  2 1 5  Ibid.,  Table  15,  Cit.,  p.99  of  The  2 1 3  income the  necessary in  to  to  food the  import i t . which  i s in large part a d i r e c t  result  Education  introduced  into  a programme w h i c h p r o v i d e d  free  had  remained  p.241 Cit.,  was  1945. " Table  2 1 5  2 1 3  existence  increase  population  population  services.  changes  a l w a y s been a v a i l a b l e t o  e x i s t e d by  total  to  literacy  for Free  1943,  the  the  has  due  p r o d u c t i v i t y and  when i t was  and  at a l l l e v e l s  while  1970:  the  1946  of GOSL p o l i c i e s . State  Food  periods  Similarly, occurred  agricultural  scheme.  p o o r , even d u r i n g  were not  p.4  2 1  14  no  schooling without  shows t h a t in  1953,  schooling in  1 02  Table  14:  Percentage D i s t r i b u t i o n of Population by E d u c a t i o n - 1953, 1963, a n d 1969/70  1953  No  Schooling  1 963  41 .6  36.6  16  46.8  39.3  39  Secondary  9.8  19.6  32  Passed  GCE/SSC  0.9  3.4  Higher  and T e c h n i c a l  0.9  1. 1  Pr i m a r y  100.0  W h i l e male l i t e r a c y in  1971, f e m a l e  during  increased  literacy  t h e same p e r i o d .  education  according  2 1 6  1  6  2  1  7  Ibid.,  Table  1 2  from  Table  1 00. 0  628/1000 from  i n 1946 t o 785/1000  468/1000  15 i l l u s t r a t e s  t o age and sex i n 1 9 7 1 :  8.3, p. 1 14  1  100.0  increased  Census of P o p u l a t i o n , Colombo, 1971, p.113 2  1969/70  to the  709/1000 level  of  2 1 7  D e p a r t m e n t o f C e n s u s and  Statistics,  103  Table  15:  L i t e r a c y Rates  Literacy  by Sex and Age - 1971  r a t e s p e r 1000  R a t i o o f male to  Age  Total  Male  Female  female  rate  rate  (pe r c e n t a g e )  10 & o v e r  785  856  709  120.7  10-14  830  837  823  101.7  15-19  867  883  851  103.8  20-24  871  910  831  109.5  25-29  847  910  783  116.2  30-34  824  904  738  122.5  35-39  745  863  625  1 38. 1  40-44  749  867  613  141.4  45-49  701  840  544  154.4  50-54  687  833  513  162.4  55-59  639  791  453  174.6  60-64  605  756  410  184.4  65-69  573  735  375  196.0  70-74  532  699  318  219.8  75 & over  429  608  238  255.5  It  is  between male a n d Perhaps  most  childbearing  evident female  from  the  literacy  above has  table  narrowed  i n t e r e s t i n g however, i s t h e f a c t age show r e l a t i v e l y  high  that since  that  literacy.  1946.  females of  Progress  in  1 04  literacy  during  t h e p e r i o d from  Government  success  throughout  the  f r e e and  in  to  expanding  country,  and  therefore accessible  Clearly,  1946  1971  educational  fact  that education  to  the  general  most a c h i e v e m e n t s w i t h  respect  to  m o r t a l i t y and  increased l i t e r a c y  1946  1971  t o v a r i o u s government  not  were due  attributable While  to  explore p o l i c y  policy  and  direct  food  findings  result  in  the  subsidies in this  developing  not  It  1  8  Census o f  2  1  9  And  extension to  study  the  during  nutrition, from  programmes and  are  findings  evident  that  this  have  study  definite  achievements in large  of h e a l t h s e r v i c e s ,  be  of  insofar  advocates  to of  P o p u l a t i o n , Op. extent,  and  interest as  to  they  Cit.,  to  policy  in part for  supply 2 1 9  The  makers  demonstrate  the  2 2 0  education  essential  the  mass e d u c a t i o n .  development. free  t o be  2 1 8  the p e r i o d  the  poor,  should  countries  to a l e s s e r  been  of government programmes w h i c h p r o v i d e d  c o n s i d e r e d mass e d u c a t i o n  2  improved  d e c l i n e i n S r i Lanka a r e  i m p o r t a n c e o f mass e d u c a t i o n Early  has  population.  been t h e main p u r p o s e of  is  to  development.  i s s u e s , some of  fertility  malaria control, of  i t has  implications.  mortality the  to a g r i c u l t u r a l  due  facilities  the  reduced to  i s mainly  in the  Sri  Lanka  development  p.113  the promotion  of  family  planning.  2 2 0 T h i s s t u d y has not s p e c i f i c a l l y a d d r e s s e d t h e ways i n w h i c h e d u c a t i o n c o n t r i b u t e s t o economic development. It is widely accepted that education i s b e n e f i c i a l in t h i s regard.  105  process:  2  2 1  " I t i s not d i f f i c u l t t o see t h a t among the objectives that would dominate national policies after the war will be the prevention o f unemployment, t h e r a i s i n g of the standard of living of the masses, increased production, a more equitable s y s t e m of distribution, social security, promotion of c o - o p e r a t i v e e n t e r p r i s e , e t c . But a s none of t h e s e t h i n g s can be fully realized without mass e d u c a t i o n we a r e of the o p i n i o n t h a t f r e e e d u c a t i o n must come f i r s t and foremost."  Investment  in  luxury  t o be  in  only  promoting  education  is a  mass  education  a d o p t e d by  equality  all  countries  fertility  has  seems p r o b a b l e society  can  generations  of  "fostering  socialist  not  should  where  integral be  - and  has  sustain mass  a m a t t e r of  yet  to  As  stable  schooling".  marriage  low  2 2 2  postponements  development  serious  concern  m o r t a l i t y and suggested:  demonstrated high  a  interested  the  C a l d w e l l has  be  as  t h e c o n t r a r y , mass  p a r t of  a c o n d i t i o n of  been a c h i e v e d .  regarded  governments  o p p o r t u n i t y . On  f u n d a m e n t a l and  p r o c e s s . Mass e d u c a t i o n in  of  i s a l l too o f t e n  fertility  -  low "It  that  any  beyond  two  Fernando  concludes  and  increasing  that the  As put forward by t h e S p e c i a l Committee on E d u c a t i o n i n s u p p o r t of f r e e e d u c a t i o n . C i t e d in K.M.H. S u m a t h i p a l a , Op. Cit., p.278. It is interesting that t h e S p e c i a l Committee a d v a n c e d t h i s v i e w i n 1943, a f u l l t w e n t y - o n e y e a r s b e f o r e T.W. S c h u l t z a d v a n c e d h i s t h e o r i e s on human capital and economic development. See T.W. Schultz, Transforming T r a d i t i o n a l Agriculture, Yale U n i v e r s i t y Press, 1964. It is nowhere evident, however, that the S p e c i a l Committee considered m o r t a l i t y and f e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e t o be i n t e g r a l t o d e v e l o p m e n t . 2 2 1  2  2  2  Caldwell,  1982,  Op.  C i t . , p.305  106  educational pragmatic  attainments  relative  has  been  that  low f e r t i l i t y  family  planning  of m a r i t a l  i s becoming  22  from  will  decline  basis  of d e c r e a s i n g m a r i t a l  is  fertility c l e a r that  the  dry  2  2 2  3  "  Dallas  rising  fertility  fertility  most  2 2 3  Planning i n age a t over  the  i s essential i f  There  S r i Lanka's  conceptual  i s evidence  important since  crude b i r t h  rate  rates.  that  development  2 2 5  F.S. F e r n a n d o ,  i s c o n c e r n e d . However, i t  fertility  differentials  o f Y o t o p o u l o s ' frame w h i c h  i s unnecessary. This  between  income  is  arid f e r t i l i t y ,  Similarly, mortality  1979, Op. C i t . ,  F.S. Fernando,  insofar  between a g r i c u l t u r a l d e v e l o p m e n t  d r y zone  portion  to S r i Lanka.  See D a l l a s  fram has p r o v e d u s e f u l  f o r the a n a l y s i s of  t o t h e weak r e l a t i o n  2  fertility".  increasingly  fertility  i n S r i Lanka's  zone,  w i t h economic  peculiar  the  29.4 i n 1976 t o 27.5 i n 1981 s o l e l y on t h e  an a n a l y s i s o f t h e r e l a t i o n  and  be  Note Yotopoulos'  as  in  i s t o be a c h i e v e d .  1 97 3 . " F e r n a n d o c a l c u l a t e s t h a t  4. A F i n a l  to  noted. While  to dramatic declines  term, t h e r e d u c t i o n  sustained  appears  i m p o r t a n c e o f t h e GOSL's F a m i l y  previously  marriage can l e a d short  women  a p p r o a c h t o c o n t r o l l i n g S r i Lankan The  Programme  of  largely  in  deals due  w h i c h may be  does  not appear  p.139  1976, O p . C i t . , p.42  Food subsidies, f r e e e d u c a t i o n , and f r e e h e a l t h c a r e a l l m i n i m i z e t h e i m p o r t a n c e o f income t o f e r t i l i t y i n S r i Lanka. T h i s d i s t i n g u i s h e s S r i L a n k a from many T h i r d W o r l d c o u n t r i e s . 2  2  5  107  to  be  critical  to  an  analysis  of  dry  zone  fertility  di f f e r e n t i a l s . Components of most u s e f u l are  i n the  theories  e d u c a t i o n , age on  ethnic  available that  concerning  thoroughly  of  the  at marriage,  for  level between  age  at  becomes i n c r e a s i n g l y on  contraceptive  at  which they are  theoretical  fertility.  l e v e l s and  districts  of  are  culture,  education,  marital  important  practices adopted.  and  to  age  at marriage  necessary  marital  obtain  and  before other  rates  reliable  f a c t o r s which  data are  i t is clear  fertility  fertility  factors,  While  S r i Lanka,  studies  and  are  zone f e r t i l i t y d i f f e r e n t i a l s  marital  education  As  frame w h i c h  r e l a t i o n between c u l t u r a l  marriage  analyzed.  dry  and  individual  village  affecting  analysis  composition,  relationship  Yotopoulos'  the  factors can  be  decrease, i t information  influence  the  rate  108  Bibliography Akin,  John  e t . a l , "The D e t e r m i n a n t s o f B r e a s t f e e d i n g i n S r i L a n k a " , i n Demography, V o l . 1 8 , No.3, 1981, pp.287-307  Abhayaratne,  Anker,  O.E.R., and J a y e w a r d e n e , C.H.S., F e r t i l i t y T r e n d s i n C e y l o n , The Colombo A p o t h e c a r i e s ' Co., Ltd., Colombo, 1967  Richard, "Demographic Change a n d t h e R o l e o f Women: a Research Programme in Developing Countries", i n Richard M. 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