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Financial implications and some costs and benefits of logging guidelines in the Chilliwack provincial.. 1975

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\ \ FINANCIAL IMPLICATIONS AND SOME COSTS AND BENEFITS OF LOGGING GUIDELINES IN THE ' CHILLIWACK PROVINCIAL FOREST by HENRY J . BENSKIN B.Sc. (Hons). University of Wales, 1973 A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF FORESTRY i n the Department of FORESTRY We accept t h i s thesis as conforming to the required standard THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA A p r i l , 1975 In presenting t h i s thesis i n p a r t i a l f u l f i l m e n t of the requirements for an advanced degree at the University of B r i t i s h Columbia, I agree that the L i b r a r y s h a l l make i t f r e e l y a v a i l a b l e for reference and study. I further agree that permission for extensive copying of t h i s thesis for s c h o l a r l y purposes may be granted by the Head of my Department or by h i s representatives. I t i s understood that copying or p u b l i c a t i o n of t h i s t h e s i s for f i n a n c i a l gain s h a l l not be allowed without my written permission. Department of The University of B r i t i s h Columbia Vancouver 8, Canada Date / i Supervisor: Dr. J.H.G. Smith ABSTRACT The financial implications and some of the costs and benefits of two sets of logging guidelines were examined in two sample drainages in the ChilliwackfProvincial Forest. Time limitations and lack of data on non-timber resource impacts prevented a full.quantitative evaluation of a l l costs and benefits. Instead, an analysis of the financial impact of these guidelines on the timber resource was undertaken, and supported by a qualitative discussion of environmental, social and income distribution effects. The potential variation in the system was demonstrated by a simulation approach to the financial evaluation. There s t i l l i s much uncertainty in most of the assumptions and research and improved methods could provide more precise answers. The financial analysis showed that the alternative patch cutting system, common to both sets of guidelines, was the main contributing factor to increased logging costs. The more extensive basis for harvest- ing under this system was found to result in as much as a 60% decline in potential economic rent per developed acre, without any consideration of increases in physical harvesting costs. The size of the increase in physical iLoggingicQSts per cunit was found to be very sensitive to interest rates and to the length of the leave period between consecutive harvesting passes. Application of the 1972 Coast Logging Guidelines to harvesting - operations in the Chilliwack Provincial Forest was found to result in an i i extra annual cost, ranging from between $0,632 m i l l i o n to $6,645 m i l l i o n for the next 24 years. A fi g u r e of $1,423 m i l l i o n was considered to be the most r e a l i s t i c estimate of the extra costs r e s u l t i n g from the guide- l i n e s . The alternate patch c u t t i n g system with long leave periods -may aggravate i n s t a b i l i t y of those small u n d i v e r s i f i e d communities which are highly dependent upon the l o c a l timber processing i n d u s t r i e s for employ- ment . Analysis of the costs and bene f i t s of the guidelines as they a f f e c t other resource values revealed that they may be an i n e f f i c i e n t means for a t t a i n i n g multiple use.objectives. It appeared l i k e l y that problems of erosion, sedimentation and aesthetic impact may even be increased o v e r a l l , because of the more extensive basis for forest development. There s t i l l i s a need for much i n v e s t i g a t i o n of the quantitative aspects of harvesting impacts on fo r e s t land resources. In addition the analyses should be extended to other units, and guideline'.effects evaluated by mathematicaloihodel'ldng. i i i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The author wishes to express gratitude to committee chairman, Dr. J.H.G. Smith, for guidance during the research and suggestions for preparing the manuscript, and to committee members Dr. D. Haley, Professor L. Adamovich, and Dr. J.P. Kimmins for t h e i r c r i t i c a l review and advice. Special thanks are also due to Mr. R.L. Schmidt and Mrs. E.A.F. Wdtton, r e s p e c t i v e l y , Forester 2 i / c B.C. Forest Service Research D i v i s i o n and Senior Economist, Special Studies D i v i s i o n for t h e i r help i n enabling t h i s project to be undertaken, and funded as a r e - search contract by the B.C. Forest Service Research D i v i s i o n . My thanks are also extended to: Mr. B. Devitt, Chairman, Reforestation Board of the Tree Farm Forestry Committee, for h i s e f f o r t s i n promoting the need for such a research undertaking. Mr. J.B. Richardson, Forester i / c Operations, Cattermole Timber Ltd., for providing maps and cost information, as w e l l as discussing the impacts of the guidelines on h i s op- erations i n Paleface and Depot Creeks. J. Livland and Assoc. Ltd., Forestry Consultants, Vancouver, for providing numerous development plan maps and cr u i s e information for Paleface and Depot Creeks. •Messrs. K. Ingram and E.E. Amos, r e s p e c t i v e l y , Zone Forester i / c and Zone Forester 2 *i/c ,2B i7C.-Foresti'.Servicevyaneouver D i s t r i c t , for t h e i r considerable e f f o r t s i n making the relevant T.S.H.L. documents a v a i l a b l e , and for discussing the impact of logging guidelines i n the Chilliwack P r o v i n c i a l i v Forest. Mr. C. Johnson and Mr. H. Hahn, r e s p e c t i v e l y , Forester i / c Operations and Forest Technician, B.C. Forest Service Vancouver D i s t r i c t , for discussing the e f f e c t s of guide- l i n e s on a r t i f i c i a l and natural regeneration, and f o r sup- pl y i n g some of the required data. Person.ell from the Fish and W i l d l i f e Branch i n Burnaby, for discussing the e f f e c t s of guidelines on f i s h and w i l d - l i f e values i n the Chilliwack P r o v i n c i a l Forest. Messrs. M.F. Painter and A. Shebbeare, Council of Forest Industries of B.C., Vancouver, f o r discussing the f i n a n c i a l implications of the 1972 Coast Logging Guidelines, and mak- ing a v a i l a b l e t h e i r data and studies f o r use i n t h i s t h e s i s . Mr. J . Bruce, Forester i / c B.C. Forest Service Inventory D i v i s i o n for providing data for the annual allowable cut c a l c u l a t i o n for the Dewdney P.S.Y.U. Mr. V. Wellburn, Special Lecturer, Faculty of Forestry, U n i v e r s i t y of B.C., for providing cost information, and for reviewing c e r t a i n aspects of the f i n a n c i a l evaluation. Mrs. L. Kerr, Technician, Faculty of Forestry, U n i v e r s i t y of B.C., for her invaluable assistance i n 'de-bugging' the computer program. V TABLE OF CONTENTS Page ABSTRACT ; i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS i i i TABLE OF CONTENTS v LIST OF TABLES i x LIST OF FIGURES x LIST OF CONVERSION FACTORS x i i 1.0 INTRODUCTION. 1 2.0 DESCRIPTION OF THE CHILLIWACK PROVINCIAL FOREST. 3 2.1 Introduction. 3 2.2 Location and extent of the Chilliwack P r o v i n c i a l Forest. 3 2.3 Physical features. 3 2.31 Physiography and Geology. 3 2.32 Climate. 5 2.33 S o i l s and Landforms. 7 2.34 Natural Vegetation. 8 2.4 History, extent and s i g n i f i c a n c e of the timber resource. 8 2.41 History. 8 2.42 Significance of Timber Harvest to the Local Economy. ' 14 2.43 Significance of Timber Harvest to the Regional Economy. 14 2.44 Returns to the Province. 15 2.5 Other resources. 16 2.51 Water Resource. 16 v i .Page 18 2.52 Mineral Resource. 2.53 F i s h Resource. 1 8 2.54 W i l d l i f e Resource. 2 1 2.55 Recreation. 2 2 3.0 ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION CONSTRAINTS AND REGULATION. 26 3.1 Philosophy behind government intervention i n the forest industry i n B.C. 26 3.2 The framework within which Guidelines operate. 29 3.3 Background of logging guidelines i n the Vancouver Forest D i s t r i c t . 31 3.4 Review of the main aspects of the 1972 Coast Logging Guidelines. 34 3.5 Review of the main aspects of the Severe Site Guidelines. 36 3.6 Response from government agencies, private industry and u n i v e r s i t y to logging guidelines. 37 3.7 Discussion of the main f i n a n c i a l impacts of•the logging guidelines. 44 4.0 EVALUATION OF THE COSTS AND BENEFITS OF THE LOGGING GUIDELINES. 48 4.1 Introduction. 48 4.2 Evaluation of q u a n t i f i a b l e costs and b e n e f i t s . 49 4.21 Review of Available Data. " 49 4.22 Methodology f or Evaluating Forestry Costs and Benefits. 50 4.23 Net Present Value Method. 53 4.231 Logging plan preparation. 53 4.232 Evaluation of cost and revenue flows v i i Page over time . 54 4.233 P l a n t i n g and p l a n t i n g cost assumptions. 57 4.234 N a t u r a l regeneration. 62 4.235 Successor Crop. 64 4.236 Summary of cost and revenue data. 66 ' 4.237 D e s c r i p t i o n of net present worth model. 68 4.238 Results of the a n a l y s i s . 71 4.239 D i s c u s s i o n of r e s u l t s . 76 4.24 CO.F.I. Method. 79 4.241 I n t r o d u c t i o n and b a s i c assumptions. x79 4.242 Road c o s t s . 80 ""/ 4.243 Bridge c o s t s . 82 4.244 Road maintenance. 82 4.245 Other lo g g i n g c o s t s . 83 4.246 Moving cos t s and s i t e improvements. 84 4.247 I n t e r e s t c o s t s . -85 4.248 R e s u l t s of the a n a l y s i s . .87 , 4.249 D i s c u s s i o n of r e s u l t s . 92 4.3 E v a l u a t i o n of i n t a n g i b l e costs and b e n e f i t s . 96 - 4.31 I n t r o d u c t i o n . 1 96 - 4.32 S i g n i f i c a n c e of A v a i l a b l e Data. 97 4.33 Methodology of E v a l u a t i o n . 98 4.34 Impact on L o c a l Employment. 98 4.35 Impact on Recreation and A e s t h e t i c s . 99 \ 4.36 Impact on W i l d l i f e . 1 0 0 % - TO? 4.37 Impact on F i s h and Water Q u a l i t y . \t-- v i i i Page 4.38 Impact on S i t e P r o d u c t i v i t y . 104 4.39 Impact on Forest P r o t e c t i o n . 106 5.0 DISTRIBUTION OF COSTS AND BENEFITS. 108 6.0 FINAL DISCUSSION, CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 114 LITERATURE CITED 118 APPENDIX I 124 - APPENDIX I I 135 i x LIST OF TABLES Table Page I. Employment and value of wood products from the Chilliwack P r o v i n c i a l Forest, 1970 - 1972. 15 I I . Basic assumptions and number of trees to plant i n order to achieve the maximum number of successor crop trees per acre. 61 I I I . Natural regeneration lag times. 64 IV. Variable density y i e l d table summary for Douglas-fir and western hemlock: 65 V. Summary of cost and revenue data. 67 VI. L i s t of data card parameters. ''69;!" VII. L i s t of t i t l e s of net present worth matrices. 72 VIII. Range and mean values of net present worth matrices for Paleface and Depot Creeks. 73 IX. Percent reduction i n net present worth of other operations compared to the pre-1972 guideline operation. ; 74 X. Range and mean values of the proportion of t o t a l net present worth contributed by the successor crop. 75 XI. Net present worth values per developed acre and per cunit. 78 X LIST OF FIGURES Figure Page 1. Map showing l o c a t i o n of the Chilliwack P r o v i n c i a l Forest. 4 > 2. Topography: Chilliwack P r o v i n c i a l Forest. 6 3. S o i l s : Chilliwack P r o v i n c i a l Forest. 9 4. Unit landforms: Chilliwack P r o v i n c i a l Forest. 10 5. Biogeoclimatic zones and subzones: Chilliwack P r o v i n c i a l Forest. H 6. Chilliwack River hydrology. 1'7 7. F i s h populations: Chilliwack P r o v i n c i a l Forest. 8. Winter range: Chilliwack P r o v i n c i a l Forest. 9. Recreational opportunities: Chilliwack P r o v i n c i a l Forest. 10. Flow chart showing a l t e r n a t i v e assumptions for net present worth model. 11. Types of environmental costs. 1 HO 12. P o l l u t i o n c o n t r o l cost components. H I 19, 23 25 70 Page x i XII. Summary of cost impact of 1972 Coast Logging Guidelines f o r Depot Creek ( i = 10%). 88 XIII. Summary of cost impact of 1972 Coast Logging Guidelines f or Paleface Creek ( i = 10%). 89 XIV. Summary of cost impact of 1972 Coast Logging Guidelines f o r Depot Creek ( i = 6%). 90 XV. Summary of cost impact of 1972 Coast Logging Guidelines f o r Paleface Creek ( i = 6%). 91 XVI. Yearly logging cost increase a l t e r n a t i v e s for the Chilliwack P r o v i n c i a l Forest ($ MM). 94 x i i LIST OF CONVERSION FACTORS To convert: Inches (in.) Cubic feet (cu.ft.) Miles (mi.) Acres (ac.) Into: Centimeters (cm.) 3) Cubic meters (m Kilometers (km.) Hectares (ha.) Mul t i p l y by: 2.540 0.0283 1.609 0.405 To convert degrees Fahrenheit (°F) to degrees Celsius (°C), subtract 32 and multiply by 5/9. 1 1.0 INTRODUCTION. In recent years the B.C. Forest Service, other Government agencies and private industry have been showing signs of increased cooperation i n managing the forest environment. Although a frame- work i s w e l l on the way to being established, r e l a t i v e l y l i t t l e a t t ention i s being devoted to the problem of multiple-resource deS c i s i o n making, and to the use of e x p l i c i t l y defined management ob- j e c t i v e s and c r i t e r i a . The main reason for t h i s i s a lack of informa- t i o n on resource values and l i t t l e knowledge of the impact of manage- ment of one resource on the values of other resources. Logging guidelines i n Coastal B.C. have tended to be vague and too subjective. Despite these obvious problems, i t i s e s s e n t i a l that guidelines are updated continually i n the l i g h t of changing circumstances and a d d i t i o n a l information and research. This thesis attempts to q u a n t i t a t i v e l y evaluate the costs and benefits of two sets of logging guidelines, namely the 'Planning guidelines for Coast Logging Operation s'' >'(B. C.F.. S.. , '1912): anck'the''-' Interim'5' Guides" - Logging on Severe Sites - Vancouver Forest D i s t r i c t ' (B.C.F.S., 1973a). The need f or such research originated i n part from recommendations made by the author of t h i s t h e s i s , to a Task Force appointed by the Chairman of the Reforestation Board of the Tree Farm Forestry Committee. This Task Force was instruc t e d to review comments made by foresters i n the Vancouver D i s t r i c t on the l a t t e r set of guide- l i n e s , and to o u t l i n e any apparent information gaps. A separate report on research needs was forwarded by the Chairman (Devitt, 1974) to various research agencies with a request f o r assistance and a request f o r guidance i n the type of work that each might be able to 2 undertake. As a r e s u l t of discussions with Mr. R.L. Schmidt, R.P.F. and Mrs. E.A.F. Wetton, R.P.F.*, the author prepared a research pro- posal o u t l i n i n g a method f or analysing the costs and benefits of logging guidelines. This was accepted, and the author was awarded a contract, dated May 10, 1974 requesting the following project to be undertaken: "Socio-economic evaluation of the impact of environmental protection constraints and regulation upon e x i s t i n g tim- ber harvesting practices at high elevations i n the C h i l l i - wack P r o v i n c i a l Forest." (Stokes, pers. comm.) The Chilliwack P r o v i n c i a l Forest was selected as a s u i t a b l e study area f o r two main reasons. F i r s t l y , the area provides a^good example of c o n f l i c t i n g i n t e r e s t s i n timber production, f i s h and w i l d l i f e values and recreation, and may indic a t e the sort of problem which i s l i k e l y to be faced a great deal more i n B.C. i n the future. Secondly, a r e a l i s t i c analysis i n a short period of time requires a sound data base. This i s lacking f o r a great many areas i n B.C. but a l o t of information has been c o l l e c t e d for the Chilliwack Pro- v i n c i a l Forest by the Westwater Research Centre at U.B.C. and by the B.C. Forest Service, Vancouver D i s t r i c t S t a f f . The a v a i l a b l e information was reviewed and analysed as to i t s p o t e n t i a l usefulness for t h i s study (Benskin, 1974a). The evaluatory procedure adopted was s p e c i f i c a l l y designed to accomodate the basic l i m i t a t i o n s of the av a i l a b l e data. Those costs and ben e f i t s which could be q u a n t i t a t i v e l y i d e n t i f i e d were included i n a t r a d i t i o n a l economic analysis. The remaining int a n g i b l e components were reviewed i n a supporting q u a l i t a t i v e discussion, and were r e l a t e d to the r e s u l t s of the quantitative analysis. * Respectively Forester 2 i / c B.C. Forest Service Research D i v i s i o n and Forest Economist, Special Studies D i v i s i o n . 3 2.0 DESCRIPTION OF THE CHILLIWACK PROVINCIAL FOREST 2.1 Introduction. The physical and b i o l o g i c a l a t t r i b u t e s of the C h i l l i - wack P r o v i n c i a l Forest have been w e l l documented i n the l i t e r a t u r e . The objective of t h i s section i s to provide a f a i r l y concise back- ground review of the resources considered i n t h i s study. For more de t a i l e d information the reader should r e f e r to the 'Integrated Use Plan for the Chilliwack P r o v i n c i a l Forest: Part 1 Basic Resources', (B.C.F.S., 1974) and to a number of unpublished Westwater Research Centre reports c i t e d i n the text. 2.2 Location and extent of the Chilliwack P r o v i n c i a l Forest. The Chilliwack Forest covers approximately 175,000 acres and i s located about 55 miles east of Vancouver, B.C. between the Fraser River and the International Boundary (Figure 1). Unless one hikes i n over the mountains or f l i e s i n to Chilliwack Lake, en- trance to the f o r e s t i s by road from Vedder Crossing located about four miles south of the town of Chilliwack. 2.3 Physical features. 2.31 Physiography and Geology. The Chilliwack River flows i n an almost due westerly d i r e c t i o n through a narrow v a l l e y located i n the Cascade Mountains (Skagit Range) of B r i t i s h Columbia. The drainage area measures approximately 486 square miles and i s bordered by mountains with peaks ranging between 5,000 to 8,500 feet above sea l e v e l . The headwaters of the r i v e r o r i g i n a t e inT-the North Cascades National Park, Washington, U.S.A., and j o i n to form the Chilliwack River some 1.6 miles north of the Canada-U.S. border. The r i v e r then flows 7 - 7T~r\ \ ~~ \ Figure 1 Map showing l o c a t i o n of the Chilliwack P r o v i n c i a l Forest Scale: 1:125000 4 ,1 I S O U L L O C K IQ,^J I J , , "A \^i:7) \ \ I • 7̂ '!""'!. r». JT* ". .4." -. 1 ^ 5 " V i P K . i \ J „ , , . •I LAUGHINGTON HURSTOW I f"jl • i c S / 1 ' , * ' T T E N B E R G - VLOCKWOOO ; £9 IcGUIRE r P tor c s '• | M A C O O N A L I ^ . \ \ N - \ ^ \ „ ^ 1 / , - o . MERONUIK J- THOMPSO«'0~ M " ̂  EDGAR v fJQEMAN- ; :. .-.TOT/ / WASHINGTON S. 5 i n a northerly d i r e c t i o n into Chilliwack Lake, and from there pro- ceeds i n a westerly d i r e c t i o n for a distance of 37 miles to the Fraser River. Topographically, the drainage consists of a long U- shaped v a l l e y , broad i n places, with r e l a t i v e l y steep, rugged slopes and a number of narrow t r i b u t a r y drainages entering i n from the sides (Figure 2). Monger (1974) described the Chilliwack Forest as l y i n g on the west side of the Cascade Mountain System: an a x i a l core of granite rock and gneiss flanked on the east and west by b e l t s of faulted metamorphic, sedimentary, plutonic and volcanic rocks. The l a t t e r accounts f o r the western two-thirds of the f o r e s t , eastwards to a l i n e drawn roughly from Slesse Mountain to Williams and Goetz Peaks, while the remaining eastern portion was described as e s s e n t i a l l y g r a n i t i c rock with minor gneiss and sedimentary rock. 2.32 Climate. The Forest, which i s under the influence of the Coastal Pressure System (Chapman, 1952) , has an annual t o t a l p r e c i p i - t a t i o n of 62.12 inches with only s l i g h t v a r i a t i o n from s t a t i o n to s t a t i o n . On the other hand, the average snow f a l l shows a d e f i n i t e increase i n an e a s t e r l y d i r e c t i o n , from 28 inches at Cultus Lake to 52 inches at Tamihi Creek and 91 inches at Center Creek (Farley, 1966). The area f a l l s into Koppen's Dfb (Humid Continental-Cool Summer) c l i m a t i c zone, which i s characterized by average temperatures between 50°F and 72°F during the warmest month and l e s s than 27°F during the coldest month. There i s no d i s t i n c t dry season i n the Dfb zone; the d r i e s t summer month has more than 1.2 inches of r a i n . (Chapman, 1952). Mean d a i l y temperatures i n the Chilliwack Provin- c i a l Forest range from 60°F for July to 25°F for January with a mean annual temperature of 49°F (Farley, 1966). It should be noted that FIGURE 2 6 Reproduced w i t h the kind p e r m i s s i o n of N. Keser. 7 several of the c l i m a t i c stations from which these measurements were taken are located outside the boundaries of the Chilliwack P r o v i n c i a l Forest and almost a l l stations are situated at elevations of 1600 feet or below. Care has to be exercised, therefore, i n forming con- clusions based on these figures which do not include high e l e v a t i o n information or take account of l o c a l v a r i a t i o n due to the immense topographic v a r i a b i l i t y i n the area. 2.33 S o i l s and Landform. JL mi; A survey was ca r r i e d out by Leskiw (1973) i n order to provide basic information on s o i l s and landform for the 'Integrated Resource Use Plan f o r the Chilliwack P r o v i n c i a l Forest' (B.C.F.S., 1974). The area was found to possess a great v a r i e t y of landforms, from v a l l e y bottom to mountain top. Some v a l l e y s such as those of the Chilliwack River and Slesse Creek are broad i n places with benches and terraces, and were found to consist of deep g l a c i o - f l u v i a l , l a c u s t r i n e and morainal deposits. In comparison, the nar- rower and steeper-sided v a l l e y s of Foley and Nesakwatch Creeks & had c o l l u v i a l deposits along the sides and patches of moraine and alluvium at t h e i r lower ends and entrances. Leskiw (1973) analysed s o i l types within these landform categories. Shallow ridge s o i l s (approximately 20 inches deep)consisting of l i t h i c a lpine b r u n i s o l s and l i t h i c humo-ferric podsols were common within subalpine and a l - pine areas (elevation range between 5,000 and 7,000 f e e t ) . On the mountain slopes within forested areas (elevation range between 500 and 5,000 feet) there were mainly podsols ( o r t h i c , l i t h i c and hum6- f e r r i c types) with intermittant c o l l u v i a l fans which had very l i t t l e s o i l development. The v a l l e y bottom s o i l s consisted of humo-ferric podsols or complexes of g l e y s o l i c , podsolic and re g o s o l i c s o i l s de- 8 veloped on alluvium, l a c u s t r i n e , outwash or c o l l u v i a l deposits. Reduced copies of Leskiw's s o i l and landform maps are shown i n Figures 3 and 4 r e s p e c t i v e l y . 2.34 Natual Vegetation. Briere (1974) mapped the natural vegetation of the Chilliwack P r o v i n c i a l Forest (Figure 5) according to methods developed by Krajina (1969). Krajina's Zones and Subzones were not only defined on the basis of vegetation but also by the combined e f f e c t s of vegetation, s o i l s and c l i m a t i c v a r i a t i o n on a l o c a l scale. The Chilliwack P r o v i n c i a l Forest was found to contain three of h i s Biogeoclimatic Zones: the Coastal Douglas-fir zone, the Coastal Western Hemlock Zone, and the Mountain Hemlock Zone. The respective areas of each Zone and Subzone have not yet been calculated. The reader should consult Briere (1974) and Krajina (1969). for a comprehensive l i s t of tree and plant species as well as for the p h y s i c a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of these mapping u n i t s . 2.4 The h i s t o r y , extent and s i g n i f i c a n c e of the timber resource. 2.41 History. U t i l i z a t i o n of the forests i n the Lower Fraser V a l l e y has been continuous since the early days of settlement, but logging did not become very s i g n i f i c a n t u n t i l about 1900. The f i r s t knowA operations x i n the Chilliwack P r o v i n c i a l Forest were started i n 1910 by Bowman and Sons Logging and Sawmilling, and although the Camel River Logging Company began r a i l r o a d logging operations soon afterwards, to a l l intents and purposes the forest was s t i l l i n a ' v i r g i n ' condition (Okonski, 1974). Railroads were usually constructed i n the main v a l l e y and logging operations were r e s t r i c t e d to the most p r o f i t a b l e old growth Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco), western hemlock (Tsuga .heterophylla (Raf.)Sarg.), and FIGURE 3 S O I L S FOR LEGEND SEE ACCOMPANYING PRELIMINARY REPORT CONVENTION — Soil Unit 3 5 - 4 R - 4 - 7 Appro*, orto of mop unit 90% 7 0 % - 3 0 % C H I L L I W A C K P R O V I N C I A L F O R E S T p r e l i m i n a r y m a p ( L. L e s k i w ) Reproduced with the kind permission of Canada Dept. of Agriculture, Soils Section FIGURE 4 10 U N I T L A N D F 0 R M S C H I L L I W A C K P R O V I N C I A L F O R E S T p r e l i m i n a r y m a p ( L. L e s k i w ) t s N i S MLC* Reproduced with the kind permission of Canada Dept. of Agriculture, Soils Section FIGURE 5 B I O G E O C L I M A T I . C Z O N E S 11 C D F b C W H a C W H b M H a M H b C O A S T A L DOUGLAS FIR W E T S U B Z O N E C O A S T A L W E S T E R N H E M L O C K DRY SUBZONE C O A S T A L W E S T E R N H E M L O C K W E T SUBZONE MOUNTAIN HEMLOCK SUBALP INE FOREST SUBZONE MOUNTAIN H E M L O C K SUBALPINE P A R K L A N D S U B Z O N E C W H b M H a [CWHI C W H b C H I L L I W A C K X W H a - t D F b CDFb CWHa , MHa :Wrrfb 'MHb . + ° rock + snow MOUNT ••20A FT. McOUIRC iMHb +^ \MHa rock + MHa C W H b IHc MCt* A MHa MHa MOW • VLAUGHINOTOM ^_ MHb + rock + / snow M H a - W E L C H PEAK . MH b + rock +>now ; W H ! I MHa • ACFARLAW . C W H a M H b + rock + 'snov mm A mm. i MOUNT 6472"t LING IHa \ M H b + ^rocl + mow GOET2 PEAK M H b , W I L L l i M i / 6963 A> PC AK ^ CDFb ,MHa v MOUNT • HCXFORO M H b + rock + snow A N D S U B Z O N E S C H I L L I W A C K P R O V I N C I A L F O R E S T ( D. B r i e r e ) MHb) + rock • + low lLak* ,MHa CHILLIWACK .MHb rock/ + •snow MHb Z+rock + snow'' 'MHa" VCWH b* MOUNT rsrsA FT. LINOC M AN 1— H ••6iit« V L6M\ TcfyHa\ 1H« 1Hb> fo^k snciw R e p r o d u c e d w i t h t h e k i n d p e r m i s s i o n o f D. B r i e r 1 2 western redcedar (Thuja p l i c a t a Donn) stands. The r a i l r o a d logging era ended a f t e r a large forest f i r e i n 1938, and logging technology entered a new phase where truck hauling, gas donkeys and bulldozers made smaller operations possible. In the f i f t i e s , portable chainsaws and s t e e l spars were developed and r e f i n e d , which made p r a c t i c a b l e the logging of previously i n a c c e s s i b l e t r i b u t a r y drainages to the Chilliwack River Valley (Anon., 1973). In the l a t e t h i r t i e s and early f o r t i e s i t had become i n c r e a s i n g l y apparent that the fo r e s t , which at that time had been administered as part of the 'Fraser South Area', was being overcut and would have to be placed on a sustained y i e l d basis i n order to provide f o r future supplies of timber. By 1937 the Vancouver Forest D i s t r i c t had adopted a general p o l i c y of not making any timber sales i n second growth stands. In 1949 the Chilliwack Forest Reserve was created by an Order-in-Council which cleared the way f o r the establishment of the Chilliwack Public Working C i r c l e (P.W.C.) - a sustained y i e l d unit. In 1953 an allowable annual cut i n amount of 2.33 m i l l i o n cubic feet (2.33 MM cf) was established for the P.W.C. and i n 1958 t h i s was subsequently raised to 3.00 MM cf . It must have been apparent that between 1960 and 1963 the current rate of cut was too high and could not be reduced to comply with the allowable annual cut cons t r a i n t . In comparison, the adjacent Harrison and Yale P.W.C's were being considerably u n d e r - u t i l i z e d . Consequently i n 1963 the Chilliwack Forest was resurveyed to 'Unit Survey' standards and amalgamated with the other P.W.C's i n 1965 to form the Dewdney Pub l i c Sustained Y i e l d Unit (P.S.Y.U.). The u n u t i l i z e d allowable cut i n the remote areas of the old Yale and Harrison P.W.C's was therefore r e d i s t r i b u t e d to the more p r o f i t a b l e areas f o r logging, such as the Chilliwack 13 Forest. The average cut i n the forest appears to have r i s e n from about 6.75 MM c f i n 1963 to a current annual average cut of 7.71 MM cf (roundwood only) calculated over the period 1970-74 (Ingram pers. comm.). The d i s t r i b u t i o n of logging a c t i v i t y has changed considerably i n the Chilliwack P r o v i n c i a l Forest over the l a s t decade. Large valley-bottom Douglas-fir and western hemlock stands have mostly been removed and replaced by immature second growth stands. The current harvestable old growth consists mainly of western hemlock, amabilis f i r (Abies amabilis (Dougl.) Forbes) and yellow cedar (Chamaecyparis nootkatensis (D.Don) Spach) i n the higher elevation f o r e s t s , located p r i m a r i l y i n the t r i b u t a r y drainages to the Chilliwack River V a l l e y . Harvesting these forests has presented the logging industry with higher production costs and lower q u a l i t y timber, making i t more d i f - f i c u l t to operate p r o f i t a b l y . For example, higher road construction costs and log hauling costs have been encountered because of increas- ed ruggedness of the t e r r a i n and longer hauling distances. Logging costs have also increased because of smaller log sizes and higher stand defect, the l a t t e r averaging 30-40% and reaching as high as 70% i n some high elevation hemlock-amabilis f i r stands (Richardson, pers. comm.). Problems have also been encountered i n attempting to a r t i - f i c i a l l y regenerate these s i t e s with Douglas-fir planting stock. It i s not uncommon to encounter s i t e s where r e f o r e s t a t i o n attempts have f a i l e d two or three times i n succession (Hahn pers. comm.). As a r e s u l t of the immense scenic beauty which the area possesses as well as the importance of several other resource values (to be 14 mentioned l a t e r ) , the 'Planning Guidelines for Coast Logging Operations' (B.C.F.S., 1972) have been vigorously applied to reduce the undesirable impacts of logging. In addition, several aspects of the unpublished 'Interim Guides - Logging on Severe Sites - Vancouver Forest D i s t r i c t ' (B.C.F.S., 1973a) have been implemented e s p e c i a l l y with regard to improving regeneration performance. 2.42 Significance of the Timber Harvest to the Local Economy. The 1971 Census estimated that there were approxi- mately 23,739 people i n the Chilliwack ennumeration area of whom 9,135 resided i n the town of Chilliwack i t s e l f . A vailable data on labour force by sector ind i c a t e that f o r e s t r y based employment ranks fourth a f t e r employment i n the service, a g r i c u l t u r e and r e t a i l trade sectors (McLean, 1973). The same author made an estimate of the employment and value of production which could be re l a t e d to the annual cut i n the Chilliwack Forest over the years 1970-72. His r e s u l t s have been reproduced i n Table 1, with the following modification : the estimate of 34 men i n sawmilling was based on the estimate of about one-quarter of the allowable cut being processed l o c a l l y (1.7 MM cf) m u l t i p l i e d by the Coastal aver- age of 20.27 man years per MM cf of roundwood processed. Since a l o c a l allowable cut i s no longer i n existance and the current cut i s higher (about 7.71 MM cf) , a fi g u r e of 2 MM cf was s u b s t i t u t e d ^ 3 1 ' i n ^ t h a f c a l c u l a t i o n of m i l l employment. It was apparent from the employment figures that the forest industry i n the Chilliwack i s of r e l a t i v e l y minor importance i n r e l a t i o n to other sectors. 2.43 Significance of Timber Harvest to the Regional Economy. Roughly three-quarters (or 6 MM cf) of the harvest from the Chilliwack i s made into booms on the Fraser River and sold i n the Vancouver log market. McLean (1973) estimated that 15 Table I EMPLOYMENT AND VALUE OF WOOD PRODUCTS FROM THE CHILLIWACK PROVINCIAL FOREST, 1970-1972. - . .. Z : > •. ' ' ' - "\ 1970 1971 1972 • .••' P. , R ' ~ -. •  R~ • ••- ' '' • •• Av. no. of men employed ( f u l l time): a) i n logging. 80 93 68 b) in: l o c a l m i l l s . 40 40 40 c) dead and down salvage. 114 140 75 Total volume of logs produced (C cf.) 92,861 90,727 60,023 Total market value of logs ($) 4,067,358 3,435,491 2,796,576 Tot a l market value of minor pro- 249,442 410,040 396,330 ducts ($) 69% of these logs are processed by sawmills, 22% by pulp and paper plants and remaining 9% by plywood and veneer plants - a l l located on the Lower Coast. On t h i s b a s i s , the Chilliwack harvest only contributed about 0.7% of the t o t a l roundwood consumption on the Lower Coast i n 1972 - which i s very small indeed when considered on i t s own. 2.44 Returns to the Province. Estimates of P r o v i n c i a l revenues are d i f f i c u l t to assess because of the great v a r i a b i l i t y i n stumpage p r i c e s over the past few years. For example, the B.C. Forest Service Annual Reports show that the average stumpage p r i c e for a l l species i n the Vancouver D i s t r i c t varied between $4.71 and $15.48 per cunit pver the period 1970-73 i n c l u s i v e . Based on the annual v a r i a t i o n i n the Chilliwack timber harvest, the average weighted stumpage p r i c e paid was found to be 7.70 per cunit over the period 1970-74. P r o v i n c i a l r e c e i p t s would therefore t o t a l $593,670 per annum based on an average annual cut of 7.71 MM cf over the same period. Other payments to the P r o v i n c i a l Treasury were estimated by Reed and Assoc. (1973) as 16 being approximately $1.36 for every $1.00 of Forest Service r e c e i p t s . Such payments included f u e l tax,' s o c i a l service tax, the P r o v i n c i a l share of income tax, logging tax and the forest land improvements tax. By multiplying the fi g u r e of $1.36 by the average weighted stumpage rec e i p t s calculated above, an estimate of $807,391 per annum was obtained. T o t a l Government revenues were therefore i n the region of $1,401,081 per annum. 2.5 Other resources. 2.51 Water Resource. The watershed of the Chilliwack River, which includes the 274 square mile Chilliwack P r o v i n c i a l Forest, comprises an area of 484 square miles, 327 of which l i e i n Canada and 157 within the United States (Cheng, 1974). The elevation of the watershed ranges between 200 feet above sea l e v e l to 8,956 feet with more than 50 percent of the area l y i n g above 4000 feet . Included within the boundaries are many extensive permanent snow f i e l d s and g l a c i e r s * e s p e c i a l l y at higher elevations. Slopes of the watershed are generally steep, with between 75 percent and 100 percent not uncommon. Cheng (1974) compiled summaries of annual, monthly and extreme run-off data from "a v a r i e t y of sources. Mean monthly run- off figures expressed as a percentage of mean annual runoff are i l l u s t r a t e d i n Figure 6. Cheng stated that p r e c i p i t a t i o n f a l l i n g i n the form of snow or r a i n originated i n p a r t i c u l a r from high e l e - vation areas. Rainstorms alone seldom caused high runoffs from the watersheds, and i f snow f i e l d s and winter snow accumulation from the previous year started to melt between A p r i l and June i t was these that CHILLIWACK RIVER AT VEOOER CROSSING (1911-1931,1931-1970) IORAINAGE AREA : 484 SO. Ml MEAN ANNUAL RUNOFF: 6 7.02 IN. OR 1,730,000 AC. FT CHILLIWACK RIVER BELOW SLESSE CREEK (I937-I9G3) ORAINAGE .ARf A . 332 SO Ml. MEAN ANNUAL RUNOFF: 67.78 IN. OH 1,200,000 AC FT. SLESSE CP.EEX NEAR VEOOER CRC-SS1SG (I957-I97C) bRAINAGE AREA - f 62.7 SC VI. MEAN ANNUAL SjSOr.-: 75.06 IN. C« 251,000 4C FT. 20 10 J I J F M A M J J A S C N O • 913 * T CMCAM A *IVER CMLLIWACK R ABOVE SLESSE CREEK (1963-1970) BRAINAGE A R E A ^ ^ MEAN ANNUAL RUNOFF 69.03 IN. OR 933 ,000 AC. F T . 20 10 I J F M A M J J A S O N O Pt A« c „ % ANAPA U.S-A F I G U R E 6 17 CHILLIWACK RIVER AT OUTLET OF CHILLIWACK LAKE (1923-1950,1957-1972) •DRAINAGE AREA : I 131 SO. Ml. MEAN ANNUAL RUNOFF; 68.56 IN. OR 479,000 AC. FT. 20 10 Td J F M A M J J A S O N O BRITISH COLUMBIA DEPARTMENT *OF LANDS, FORESTS, AND WATER RESOURCES WATER RESOURCES SERVICE WATER INVESTIGATIONS BRANCH TO ACCOMPANY REPORT ON CHILLIWACK RIVER HYDROLOGY MEAN MONTHLY RUNOFF AS % OF MEAN ANNUAL RUNOFF LEGEND HYDROMETRIC STATION PROVINCIAL FOREST BOUNDARY WATERSHED BOUNDARY L««« \ 'CHILLIWACK PROVINCIAL FOREST BOUNDARY K L E S 1 L K W A \ CMILLI*AC< P A L E F A C E MTN. V R e p r o d u c e d w i t h t h e k i n d p e r m i s s i o n jy^y 1974 o f J • C h e n g . 1 8 caused the r i v e r to r i s e appreciably (See Figure 6). Cheng stated that extreme summer peaks depended on the magnitude of the snow pack and high temperatures between A p r i l and July, and that these factors combined with intermittent.rainstorms and steep^topography gave extreme irunoff conditions. 2.52 Mineral Resource. Wimsby (1974) stated that the Chilliwack P r o v i n c i a l Forest i s an area of r e l a t i v e l y low o v e r a l l mineral p o t e n t i a l . At present, there are no mines i n the area, and a c t i v i t i e s have been l i m i t e d to exploratory surveys. Wimsby considered that the ruggedness of the area would diminish the p r o f i t a b i l i t y of a mining operation, were a minable deposit discovered. He noted that there was the p o s s i b i l i t y that a deposit(s) may be found on which to base a small-scale gold operation. 2.53 F i s h Resource. The Chilliwack r i v e r has been considered e i t h e r the best, or one of the bests i n the Province for steelhead and trout f i s h i n g . In addition, the basin contributes several major runs of commercial salmon to the Fraser River f i s h e r y . Swiatkiewiez (1974) stated that from a commercial point of view Chum (Oncorhynchus keta), Coho (Oncorhynchus kisutch) and Pink Salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) are the main sources of revenue. He estimated that approximate annual landed value, based on a 10 year average catchment as follows: Chum $500,000 Coho $120,000 Pink $250,000 To t a l $870,000 The approximate d i s t r i b u t i o n of f i s h populations i n the Chilliwack P r o v i n c i a l Forest i s shown i n Figure 7. In general, the watershed upstream FIGURE 7 19 F I S H P O P U L A T I O N S C H I L L I W A C K P R O V I N C I A L F O R E S T O O O SALMON SPAWNING A R E A S RESIDENT FISH R e p r o d u c e d w i t h t h e k i n d p e r m i s s i o n o f JULY 1974 20 of Slesse Creek represents a prime spawning and rearing area, and i s closed to angling with the exception of a two week s p e c i a l opening i n July ( R i s s l i n g pers. comm.). The s i g n i f i c a n c e of the Chilliwack River to the Lower Mainland r e c r e a t i o n a l anglers i s indicated by the i n t e n s i t y of use of '." the r i v e r over the years 1970-71 and 1972-73 (Swiatkiewicz, 1974): 1970-71 1972-73 Estimated no. of anglers: 5,269 4,341 Angler days: 36,250 32,502 No. of steelhead caught: 4,269 3,157 Swiatkiewicz stated that these figures represented P r o v i n c i a l 'highs' and r e f l e c t e d the s i g n i f i c a n c e of the proximity of the r i v e r to the Vancouver population centre. The a b i l i t y of the Chilliwack watershed to sustain high l e v e l s of f i s h production has frequently been a t t r i b u t e d to the high q u a l i t y of the l o c a l environment (despite extensive logging a c t i v i t y since 1910). The e f f e c t s of logging a c t i v i t y on f i s h production i n the Chilliwack have been documented by Vroom and Dunford (1974). These authors contend that h i s t o r i c a l l y , the side t r i b u t a r i e s appeared capable of sustaining high l e v e l s of f i s h , and that recent logging a c t i v i t i e s i n these areas have severely reduced adult spawning populations. Although the prac- t i c e of clearcut logging throughout a given drainage may s u b s t a n t i a l l y .'•:"••_.•&(? a increase the magnitude and frequency of peak water flows and si z e of s i l t loads, a number of other factors must be considered before hasty conclusions are drawn. E s p e c i a l l y important i s the natural v a r i a t i o n i n f i s h populations and the influence of c l i m a t i c extremes. Like so many Coastal r a i n f o r e s t r i v e r s , the Chilliwack River s u f f e r s from wide extremes i n discharge as was shown i n the previous section. Vroom and Dunford (1974) quoted an observed v a r i a t i o n of between 280 and 27,000 cubic feet per 2 1 second (c.f.s.) and compared this with optimum spawning and emergence rates of between 1,000 and 3,000 c.f.s. An example of such a 'natural disaster' occurred during heavy floods in 1948-49 which resulted in the loss of 10,000 to 15,000 yards (or 50%) of the Sweltzer Creek Chum grounds (Vroom and Dunford, 1974). In addition, the relative contribution of individual tributaries to the Chilliwack River fish production is unknown, and therefore the impact of logging activities in these areas cannot be r e a l i s t i c a l l y assessed. Even though the Chilliwack River has provided a high level of recreation experience to the angling fraternity, there appears to be a constant demand by enthusiasts to further improve or enhance present fish stocks. In fact, there are proposed plans for a hatchery near the Slesse Creek confluence and for a steelhead propagation centre at Salverne Creek (outside the Provincial Forest boundaries), res- pectively Federal and Provincial Government undertakings. The basic benefit - cost ratio of the Federal Fisheries hatchery at Slesse Creek has been calculated to be in the order of 8.5 to 1 (assuming a 50 year l i f e span) (Meyer, 1974) and might add an additional $2.5 million to the annual value of commercial fishery on the Chilliwack River (Swiatkiewcz, 1974). 2.54 v-Wildlife Resource. The Chilliwack Forest area contains a great variety of serai stages and biogeocoenoses and these provide suit- able habitat for most of the wildli f e species known to occur in south-western British Columbia. Some of the more common mammals are: beaver, racoon, skunk, bobcat, black bear, blacktailed deer, mountain goat and cougar. Forbes (1974) stated that the most common big game species in the Chilliwack Valley is the Columbian Blacktail Deer (Odocoileus hemionus columbianus) and, although no accurate dat< as to actual deer numbers exists ••, i t i s known that a f a i r l y good population does occur. Furthermore: "These animals are subject to the normal e l e v a t i o n a l migration patterns influenced by seasonal v a r i a t i o n s , and the t o t a l population s i z e fluctuates appreciably with winter sever i t y . It would appear that c l i m a t i c factors i n conjunction with the a v a i l a b i l i t y and condition of :r range are the most serious l i m i t i n g factors to deer populations i n the Chilliwack V a l l e y . " (Forbes, 1974) The area i s c e r t a i n l y very popular for hunting i n the F a l l months. Over 1300 hunters were recorded at intermittent game checks manned by Fish and W i l d l i f e Branch personnel during the 1973 hunting season but i t i s not known what component t h i s r e f l e c t s of the t o t a l contin- gent of hunters v i s i t i n g the area. Forbes (1974) stated that deer hunting success was f a i r l y low f o r t h i s area i n 1973 with 0.03 deer being taken for each hunter day of e f f o r t . Vroom and Dunford (1974) stated that over the period 1961 to 1972, 7818 hunters shot 332 deer Over the past two years the B.C. Forest Service Vancouver D i s t r i c t s t a f f have been making considerable e f f o r t s to protect or enhance w i l d l i f e values i n the Chilliwack Forest. In cooperation with the Fi s h and W i l d l i f e Branch, a number of important winter range areas have been d e l i n i a t e d (Figure 8). For example i n Depot Creek, con- siderable amounts of timber have been deleted from logging plans for t h i s purpose (B.C.F.S., 1973b). 2.55 Recreation. The Chilliwack v a l l e y and i t s predominantly forest environment provide a wide v a r i e t y of re c r e a t i o n features and opportunities. Turner (1974) and Vickerson et a l . (1973) provided good reviews of the r e c r e a t i o n a l resources of the area. The v i s i t o r entering the Chilliwack v a l l e y on the only easy access road soon <U777n DEER WINTER RANGE F I G U R E 8 23 W I N T E R R A N G E C H I L L I W A C K P R O V I N C I A L F O R E S T R e p r o d u c e d w i t h t h e k i n d p e r m i s s i o n o f B . F o r b e s . " J U N E 1974 24 f i n d s h i m s e l f i n a mountain-enclosed v a l l e y supporting l u x u r i a n t growth, s p e c t a c u l a r scenery and a broad spectrum of features f o r p u b l i c enjoyment. Besides hunting and f i s h i n g , other popular ac- t i v i t i e s i n c l u d e camping and h i k i n g . The Parks Branch and B.C. Forest Service provide separate f a c i l i t i e s i n the v a l l e y . The 400 acre C h i l l i w a c k Lake Park (Class A) at i t s n o r t h end i s being expand- ed t o 100 campsites, w i t h boat launching f a c i l i t i e s , p i c n i c s i t e s , nature t r a i l s and a group campground a l s o planned. In c o n j u n c t i o n w i t h current p o l i c y i n the Vancouver D i s t r i c t , the Forest S e r v i c e tends to provide more 'bare-bones' or minimum f a c i l i t i e s . Three of t h e i r recognized campsites are l o c a t e d at Tamihi Creek, Post Creek and at P a l e f a c e Creek (Figure 9). In a d d i t i o n there are 24 rough camp c l e a r i n g s and p i c n i c s i t e s along main access roads (Drage pers. comm.). Turner (1974) noted ten major h i k i n g t r a i l s , i n c l u d - i n g the famous Centennial T r a i l which tra v e r s e s the f u l l l e n g t h of the f o r e s t as i t winds i t s way from Simon Fraser U n i v e r s i t y i n Burnaby to Manning Park. A v a i l a b l e data concerning the number of v i s i t o r days i n the C h i l l i w a c k Forest are poor, although the Forest Service intends^ to* use."the- ' v i s i t o r que'stionaire,' . approach-iin,ifctie near f u t u r e to improve .''".its'.- i n f o r m a t i o n . Besides the few s t a t i s - t i c s p e r t a i n i n g to hunting and f i s h i n g already mentioned, the only other estimates are made by Forest Service maintenance crews (Muller pers. comm.). Approximately 43,475 users days were recorded f o r the C h i l l i w a c k Forest between May 1st and October 31st, 1973 (Drage pers. comm.). An a d d i t i o n a l 4 percent was suggested as a good e s t i - mate f o r the whole year, 1973-74: i.'e. 45,214 user days. F I C 3 U K E 9 25 RECREATIONAL OPPORTUNITIES 26 3.0 ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION CONSTRAINTS AND REGULATIONS. 3.1 Philosophy behind government r e g u l a t i o n i n the f o r e s t i n d u s t r y i n B.C. The Province of B r i t i s h Columbia i s r i c h l y endowed w i t h a great v a r i e t y of resources, the major resource of course being i t s f o r e s t s . Out of a t o t a l P r o v i n c i a l area of 234 m i l l i o n a c r e s , approximately 134 m i l l i o n acres or 57% are c l a s s i f i e d as productive f o r e s t land w i t h most of the balance being i n barren l a n d , non- productive f o r e s t land or water. The a l l o c a t i o n of c o n s t i t u t i o n a l powers i n Canada provides the Provinces w i t h j u r i s d i c t i o n over land and other resources, and t h e r e f o r e Government p o l i c y determines the l a n d l o r d d e c i s i o n s that are l e f t to p r i v a t e p a r t i e s elsewhere. The i n f l u e n c e of p u b l i c p o l i c i e s on the development of the f o r e s t r y sec- t o r was e f f e c t i v e l y discussed by Haley (1971), who s t a t e d t h a t : " . . . p u b l i c f o r e s t p o l i c i e s are regarded as important elements f o r d i r e c t i n g the economy towards s o c i a l l y de- s i r a b l e o b j e c t i v e s . Nowhere i s t h i s more apparent than i n the Province of B r i t i s h Columbia where economists can recognize that resource p r i c i n g , i n d u s t r i a l s t r u c t u r e , i n d u s t r i a l investment p o l i c i e s , r e g i o n a l economic develop- ment and even the product mix are a l l i n f l u e n c e d by p u b l i c f o r e s t resource a l l o c a t i o n . " In c o n t r a s t to the s i t u a t i o n i n the United S t a t e s , the d e c i s i o n to maintain f o r e s t s i n p u b l i c ownership was made at an e a r l y stage i n the Province's h i s t o r y , and no s u b s t a n t i a l a l i e n a t i o n s of f o r e s t y'"\ land t o t h e p r i v a t e l e c t o r have taken place' t h i s 0 c e n t u r y . '.-The idea of m a i n t a i n i n g f o r e s t land i n p u b l i c ownership stemmed from the Land Ordinance of 1865. This introduced the p r i n c i p l e of g r a n t i n g r i g h t s to harvest timber on Crown lands without a l i e n a t i o n of the land and resources themselves. A l i e n a t i o n of lands and timber by s a l e , pre- emption and homesteading continued, however, f o r s e v e r a l decades 27 (Pearse e_t a l . 1974) . S t r i c t e r measures were l a t e r introduced by the Government of 1905, action subsequently described i n the Fulton Report of 1910. Timber l i c e n c e holders were anxious to renew t h e i r agreements with the P r o v i n c i a l Government i n view of the apparent rapid decline i n supplies from the United States and Eastern Canada. Because of the lack of revenues generated under t h i s system i n the past, the Government decided to issu£,*; long term (21 year) t r a n s f e r - able licenses to cut timber and s t i p u l a t e d that annual payments for the timber would be f i x e d by them on a year by year b a s i s . Conse- quently, the p u b l i c was guaranteed a reserved share i n the incremental value of the standing timber as i t should accrue, and money would become a v a i l a b l e to open up the Province and re-invigorate the stag- nating i n d u s t r i e s . Current f o r e s t p o l i c y was e s s e n t i a l l y derived from the Sloan Report of 1945 which recommended a system of perpetual sustained y i e l d management for a l l Crown forest lands. The p r i n c i p a l objective was to b r i n g these areas under a system of planned forest management following sustained y i e l d p r i n c i p l e s , and so provide operators with long-term supplies of wood. It was f e l t that t h i s would encourage them to undertake the heavy investments associated with c a p i t a l i n - tensive u t i l i z a t i o n plants. The necessity of Government ownership of the f o r e s t resource, and regulation by sustained y i e l d p r i n c i p l e s has been a point of contention for a considerable period of time. Dowdle (1975) stated that: "Sustained y i e l d i s appropriate for a society i n which timber i s a common property resource. This was the case i n the feudal system where, the concept originated. Sus- tained y i e l d allowable cuts, which are e f f e c t i v e l y a bag l i m i t on trees, are not appropriate for the management of resources i n which exclusive and transferable r i g h t s e x i s t . " He added that the reason why the model i s not appropriate i n the U.S. today i s that p u b l i c l y owned timber i n the U.S. i s not common property, but i s owned and exchanged i n the market. Dowdle's ar- gument may also be applied to B.C. S i r k i n (1968) added another i n t e r e s t i n g perspective: "The popular notion that regulations are needed to conserve resources for some future date i s i n c o r r e c t . The threat of increasing s c a r c i t y of a resource i n the future i s r e f l e c t e d i n a r i s e i n the current p r i c e . The p r i c e thus regulates the rate of consumption and d i s t r i b u t e s i t s use as optimally through time as human knowledge permits. Unless the cost of the resource i s external to the user, the p r i c e system regulates i t s use at l e a s t as w e l l as a conservation commission can." The l a s t q u a l i f y i n g phrase i s e s p e c i a l l y important i n the context of f o r e s t r y i n B r i t i s h Columbia, and i s l a r g e l y the basis f o r the current d i s t r u s t of p r i v a t e ownership and management. Costs become external to the user when some costs or gains occur outside of a p e r f e c t l y functioning market; i n other words, market p r i c e s may not co r r e c t l y measure the true costs or gains to society. Consequently there i s a divergence between pri v a t e and s o c i a l costs and b e n e f i t s . This well-known defect of the market system can be overcome by sup- plementing the market with d i r e c t government intervention. Mead and McKillop (1974) stated: "Where e x t e r n a l i t i e s are present and are s i g n i f i c a n t , they may be compensated for by one of four p o l i c i e s : a) Where net external benefits are present, subsidies may be granted equal to the net external benefit, b) Where net external costs are present, a tax may be l e v i e d equal to t h i s net e x t e r n a l i t y , c) An a c t i v i t y producing a net external cost may be r e s t r i c t e d by government r e - gulation, d) Government enterprise may be substituted for p r i v a t e enterprise." In summary, i t appears that there are two major reasons f o r govern- ment intervention i n the fo r e s t industry i n B.C. F i r s t l y , there i s 29 the f e e l i n g that i t takes a long time to grow a tree, and because pri v a t e enterprise i s s o l e l y concerned with maximizing short run p r o f i t s they cannot be entrusted with providing future timber sup- p l i e s . Secondly, i t appears that the e x t e r n a l i t i e s involved i n harvesting the timber crop are so s i g n i f i c a n t that not only Govern- ment intervention i s required, but also Government ownership. 3.2 The framework within which 'guidelines operate. Guidelines are e s s e n t i a l l y a set of f l e x i b l e means which, i f c o r r e c t l y applied, lead to the attainment of c e r t a i n spe- c i f i e d objectives. Stated another way, guidelines represent prac- t i c a l i n t e r p r e t a t i o n s of r e s u l t s when the appropriate c r i t e r i a are applied to s p e c i f i e d management a l t e r n a t i v e s . The e f f i c i e n c y and p r a c t i c a b i l i t y of guidelines depend on how c l e a r l y the objectives, c r i t e r i a and constraints are stated. If c r i t e r i a are improperly derived, then only by chance w i l l the enterprise achieve i t s stated objective(s) (Johnston e_t a l . , 1967) . The p r i v a t e entrepreneur uses p r i c e signals derived i n the mar- ket place as h i s 'guideline' to achieve an objective of p r o f i t maxi- mization. Investment decisions are based on estimated rates of re- turn from various management a l t e r n a t i v e s derived from estimates of future costs and revenues. Investments should therefore flow into th e i r highest y i e l d i n g a l t e r n a t i v e s , and i f e x t e r n a l i t i e s are not s i g n i f i c a n t , both short-term p r o f i t and long run s o c i a l welfare w i l l be maximized. Guidelines necessary to manage a p u b l i c l y owned resource, such as forests i n B.C., are not so e a s i l y conceived. Not only problems of resource a l l o c a t i o n , but also questions of income d i s t r i b u t i o n (equity) must be solved. However, as soon as more than one object- 30 ive i s s p e c i f i e d , problems ar i s e as to which one i s primary and which one i s secondary and also the appropriate c r i t e r i a to use. Lewis (1974) outlined the problem rather w e l l : "Public p o l i c y i s b a s i c a l l y a p o l i t i c a l matter i n which various i n t e r e s t s and objectives must be s u b j e c t i v e l y balanced against each other i n a constantly changing economic and s o c i a l environment. But the responsible po- l i t i c i a n s who mould and d i r e c t government p o l i c y seldom provide us with comprehensive and c l e a r statements of what p o l i c y i s at any given time. Thus we are often forced to i n f e r the objectives of p o l i c y from govern- ment actions, fragmentary p o l i t i c a l statements, l e g i s - l a t i o n , and regulations and procedures that govern pu b l i c administrations." The p o l i c y of the B.C. Government i s no d i f f e r e n t i n t h i s respect. Although the objective of p u b l i c forest management i n t h i s Province i s to p r a c t i c e maximum sustained y i e l d , a number of modifications have been added i n recent years. The concept of 'balanced use' was b r i e f l y outlined (B.C.F.S., 1973c), and i l l u s t r a t e s the fact that although much wealth f o r development can s t i l l be taken from the f o r e s t , management f o r recreation, water and other b e n e f i t s should be given equal consideration Smith (1970) noted that: "...there i s also recognition from a wide v a r i e t y of concerned c i t i z e n s of the need for a greatly improved q u a l i t y of environment and a growing wi l l i n g n e s s to forgo some material wealth to achieve i t . " The terms of reference for the Task Force on Crown Timber Disposal (Pearse e_t a l . , 1974) shed even more l i g h t on current timber resource management goals. Mead and McKillop (1974) summarized these as f o l - lows: "Management of timber resource should protect the public i n t e r e s t i n such a way that (a) multiple uses w i l l be served, (b) payments made f o r Crown timber capture the f u l l value of the resource, (c) the health and v i g o r of the forest industry i s maintained, and (d) good forest management pra c t i c e s are advanced." Points (a) and (b) are of p a r t i c u l a r concern i n t h i s t h e s i s . Although 31 there are c l e a r statements of objectives, the c r i t e r i a f o r s e l e c t - ing between management a l t e r n a t i v e s are lacking. B i o l o g i c a l l y based c r i t e r i a , such, as harvesting a crop of trees at the age of maximum mean annual increment are of l i t t l e use when making decisions i n a multiple resource context. However, given the problems of inadequate inventories of resources, inadequate knowledge of the monetary and other s o c i a l values of these resources, and inadequate knowledge of the impacts of management of one resource on the values of other resources, i t becomes very d i f f i c u l t to specify d e f i n i t e , all-embrac- ing c r i t e r i a f o r decision making (Kimmins, 1974b). It i s therefore not s u r p r i s i n g that guidelines f o r forest management i n B.C. have nec e s s a r i l y been vague, and relied-heavily-on[,the subjective"element. Despite t h i s obvious dilemma, i t i s e s s e n t i a l that decision making i s constantly reviewed and updated i n the l i g h t of changing circum- stances and a d d i t i o n a l information and research. Tysdal (1973) pointed out: "In order to make r a t i o n a l decisions concerning the balance of uses, i t w i l l be e s s e n t i a l to develop quantitative information concerning supplementary and complimentary r e l a t i o n s h i p s , plus competitive r e l a t i o n s h i p s and t h e i r rates of s u b s t i t u t i o n . This information which i s derived from the natural sciences and the f i e l d of economics, when combined with p o l i t i c a l and c u l t u r a l f a c t o r s , w i l l enable us to make wiser decisions i n multiple resource management." 3.3. Background of logging guidelines i n the Vancouver Forest D i s t r i c t . The f i r s t o f f i c i a l logging guidelines to be issued i n the Vancouver Forest D i s t r i c t r e l a t e d to f i r e c ontrol planning. The i n t e n t i o n behind C i r c u l a r VR65-10 (B.C.F.S., 1965a) was to im- prove the coordination of protection planning on Vancouver Island, in v o l v i n g Crown lands, p r i v a t e holdings and Tree Farm Licenses. The objective was to e s t a b l i s h a g r i d network of long-term firebreaks to cover the area from Kelsey Bay south to V i c t o r i a by cooperation between private owners and the Government. P r i o r to that date, no po l i c y had been established as to what did or did not constitute a s a t i s f a c t o r y firebreak, or what was considered the most sui t a b l e t e r r a i n from a l o c a t i o n standpoint. This C i r c u l a r , together with notes on 'Fire Break Guidelines' (B.C.F.S., 1965b), were subsequently issued to a l l Forest Rangers and quota holders f o r future Timber Sale Harvesting License (T.S.H.L.) firebreak planning. Primary firebreaks were defined as timbered s t r i p s 40 chains i n width with closed canopy and having f i r e retardant q u a l i t i e s , and were divided into two categories - either c r o s s - v a l l e y firebreaks or ridge-top • firebreaks. A d i s t i n c t i o n was made between firebreaks,and n a t u r a l fuelbreaks, the l a t t e r c o n s t i t u t i n g high elevation alpine areas, lakes, swamps, s l i d e s and so on. In terms of firebreak duration i t was intended that primary firebreaks were to remain i n t a c t / u n t i l the adjacent hazard had been s a t i s f a c t o r i l y abated and the nat u r a l regeneration or plant a t i o n had reached the stage of closed canopy, i e . condition of second-growth firebreaks. Secondary firebreaks on the other hand were only of short-term duration, and u s e f u l i n areas of active development as a protection measure and safeguard during the disposal of logging slash by burning. As the^hazard was abated on both sides, so they could be removed. In other words, they were the l a s t areas to be logged i n a development area. These guidelines appeared to be quite reasonable from the forest protection standpoint, but there was a t o t a l lack of c o n s i - deration f o r the protection of other forest resources. In view of the growing concern for environmental protection, Mr. I.T. Cameron, 33 then Chief Forester of the B.C. Forest Service, set out i n a f i v e page document the 'Planning Guidelines for Coast Logging Operations' (hereinafter called' '19 72: Coast .'Logging Guidelines').* A copy" of these guidelines i s located i n Appendix I. They included suggested u t i l i - zation standards, f i r e c o n t r o l constraints and guidelines for the "...maintenance of a managed environment suitable for the preser- vation, protection, and regulation of other users of the forest h a b i t a t . " The contents of these guidelines w i l l be b r i e f l y out- l i n e d i n the next section, but i n general they were designed to accomodate conditions encountered at low elevations i n Coastal B.C. However, a seemingly large proportion of a l l logging operations were being undertaken i n high elevation areas where d i f f e r e n t problems were being encountered. Early i n 1972, as a r e s u l t of ins creasing concern over achieving s a t i s f a c t o r y regeneration on high elevation logged-over lands on the Coast, the Forest Service employ- ed Mr. Franz Reuter to i n v e s t i g a t e the problem i n the Vancouver Forest D i s t r i c t . The management pr a c t i c e had been to clearcut and then plant the preferred species (Douglas-fir) - a system that had proven successful at lower elevations. Reuter (1973) undertook a problem a n a l y s i s , concentrating on Douglas-fir plantations at elevations above 2000 feet. Based on an average s u r v i v a l of plant- ed trees at the time of f i n a l s u r v i v a l survey (with f a i l u r e a r b i - t r a r i l y defined as any plantation with an average s u r v i v a l of 50 per cent or l e s s ) , i t was established that the f a i l u r e rate of high elevation Douglas-fir plantations ranged from 33 per cent between 2000 and 2500 feet to 90 per cent at elevations above 3500 f e e t . Foresters i n Government and industry i d e n t i f i e d the f actors con- t r i b u t i n g to seedling mortality i n order of decreasing importance 34 as: 1. Environmental l i m i t a t i o n s . 2. Planting stock condition. 3. D e f i c i e n c i e s i n p l a n t i n g operations. In response to the problems outlined i n Reuter's report, the Forest Service drafted a f i v e page set of 'Interim Guides - Logging on Severe Sites - Vancouver Forest D i s t r i c t ' (B.C.F.S., 1973). A copy of these guidelines i s located i n Appendix I. The primary objective of these guidelines hereinafter c a l l e d 'Severe Site Guidelines' was: "To sustain p r o d u c t i v i t y l e v e l s of severe f o r e s t s i t e s by adjusting present management pra c t i c e s and allowing greater f l e x i b i l i t y of s i l v i c u l t u r a l choice. Natural seeding and the u t i l i z a t i o n of good q u a l i t y advance r e - generation to restock logged areas i s to be encouraged..." It was emphasized that these guidelines represented an interim mea- sure only: " I t i s apparent that information to f u l l y substantiate guidelines for logging extreme s i t e s does not e x i s t . Research must f i l l information gaps and provide know- ledge f o r guideline modification, on a r a t i o n a l b a s i s . " A considerable amount of research i s currently being undertaken i n order to improve the data basis for decision making i n high eleva- t i o n forests i n Coastal B.C. A summary of the interim r e s u l t s of research projects currently being undertaken by the B.C. Forest Service and the Canadian Forestry Service i n the Vancouver Forest D i s t r i c t have recently been published (B.C.F.S./C.F.S., 1975). A report emphasizing problems of s o i l s t a b i l i t y and stand regeneration i n high elevations i n B.C. was also completed by U t z i g and Herring (1974). 3.4 Review of the main aspects of the 1972 Coast Logging Guide- l i n e s . The general objective of these guidelines i s to main- t a i n a s u i t a b l e environment f o r the preservation, protection and regulation of other users of the forest h a b i t a t , commensurate with maintaining good timber u t i l i z a t i o n standards and minimizing f i r e hazard. This i s to be achieved as follows: 1. Forest land within a watershed w i l l be harvested under a multiple-use concept. Timber w i l l be harvested on an alternate '50 per cent' cut programme for water- shed protection, held pending hazard abatement and development of new forest growth on cutover areas. Ad d i t i o n a l areas w i l l be deferred depending on w i l d - l i f e species requirements, f i s h e r i e s values, forest protection, r e c r e a t i o n a l values and presence of unique features. 2. U t i l i z a t i o n of a l l resources and compatible i n t e g r a t - ed use of a l l resources w i l l d i c t a t e the s i z e , shape and o r i e n t a t i o n of i n d i v i d u a l proposed clearcut open- ings. Openings w i l l be kept as small as possible and should not exceed 200 acres i n s i z e . 3. Cutting within approved openings adjacent to streams or lakes w i l l be c a r e f u l l y regulated to prevent un- desirable environmental impacts. Setting boundaries and yarding plans w i l l coincide with watercourses so there i s no yarding damage. In c e r t a i n circumstances f i l t e r s t r i p s w i l l be l e f t u n t i l the l a s t logging se- quence within the opening. Harvesting of t h i s timber may e n t a i l s p e c i a l measures i n f a l l i n g , bucking and yarding to prevent damage to advance regeneration and undergrowth. In addition, allowances for tree growth on unstable erodible cutbanks and leaning trees must be d e l i b e r a t e l y incorporated into logging plans. 4. A l l roads (main, secondary, spur and skid t r a i l s ) must be planned, located, designed, constructed, used and maintained i n such a manner that t h e i r impact on the t o t a l managed unit w i l l be an acceptable minimum. Roads should be located away from d i f f i c u l t t e r r a i n , and should have design s p e c i f i c a t i o n s that are best adapted to given slopes, topography and s o i l materials Culverts should be large enough to cope with a 25- year frequency storm, and roads should be constructed i n dry weather conditions. 5. Operating plans and proposals are subject to approval p r i o r to implementation, and the Forest Service w i l l consult with other resource managers to ensure that a l l i n t e r e s t s have been served. 6. The guidelines must not be construed as being absolute P a r t i c u l a r forest u n i t s , s p e c i a l circumstances, or needed objectives and p o l i c i e s w i l l also d i c t a t e the resultant planning and treatment required for devel- opment and c u t t i n g plans. 3.5 Review of the main aspects of the Severe Site Guidelines. The general objective of these i n t e r i m guidelines i s to sustain p r o d u c t i v i t y l e v e l s of severe forest s i t e s by adjusting present management pra c t i c e s and allowing greater f l e x i b i l i t y of s i l v i c u l t u r a l choice, e s p e c i a l l y the use of good q u a l i t y advance regeneration and natural seeding. For most p r a c t i c a l purposes, the guidelines refer t o land over 2,500 feet, but f u l l recognition of the i n d i v i d u a l i t y of severe s i t e habitats i s s p e c i f i e d . This objec- t i v e i s to be achieved as follows: 1. The proposed logging area must be thoroughly examined and a regeneration plan prepared before logging commences. Cle a r c u t t i n g must be confined to those forest habitats with r e l a t i v e l y deep s o i l phases, reasonably well-drained s o i l s with stable geomorphic c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . 2. The e f f e c t i v e seed d i s p e r s a l distance of adjacent stands must be considered when designing opening s i z e . If the clearcut i s a square, i t should not exceed 40 acres i n s i z e . If the clearcut i s larger than 40 acres, the width should not exceed 20 chains, (the '40-20 r u l e ' ) . The shape and s i z e w i l l also vary according to aspect, slope, l o c a t i o n and density of advance regeneration, protection require- ments, wind resistance, economics and environmental factors a f f e c t i n g germination and s u r v i v a l . 3. In order to further enhance s i t e p r o t ection, slash burning should be d r a s t i c a l l y reduced and no t r a c t o r and skidder logging w i l l take place on slopes exceeding 30 per cent. 4. Stands whose major tree elements have s i t e indices l e s s than 65 (base 100) or s o i l mantles of le s s than one foot over bedrock should not be logged. Such forests (mainly i n the Mountain Hemlock Zone), even i f marginally economic at the time, may be excluded from logging and held over as environ- mental or protection f o r e s t . 5. Cutting must comply with other published guidelines for Coast logging operations. 3.6 Response from Government agencies, p r i v a t e industry and University to the logging guidelines. The i n t e n t i o n of t h i s section i s to analyse a broad body of response to the guidelines, with a view to determining t h e i r primary l i m i t a t i o n s and i n p a r t i c u l a r , to get an idea of the main sources of f i n a n c i a l impact r e s u l t i n g from t h e i r implementation. In general, there have been very few published c r i t i q u e s , and so the author has had to r e l y on comments made i n newspaper a r t i c l e s and from personal communication i n order to form^.a broad body of opinion. Problem areas have been itemized for each set of guidelines 38 for purposes of c l a r i t y : 1972 Coast Logging Guidelines 1. Objectives i In general there has been no question of forest managers' acceptance of the objectives of the guidelines towards balanced use of forest lands for greatest o v e r a l l b e n e f i t s . In f a c t : "A large segment of industry has already taken s i g n i f i c a n t steps to plan and conduct forest operations to minimize deleterious e f f e c t s on the environment." (C.O.F.I., 1973a) 2. D i f f icul.ties- wi"th_ present g u i d e l i n e ^ A. HARVESTING PROBLEMS. In t h e i r present form and as they are c u r r e n t l y being interpreted and applied by the B.C. Forest Service f i e l d s t a f f , the guidelines appear to be posing many c r i t i c a l and immediate problems: Deferment - This appears to be the most c r u c i a l f actor from the tim- ber harvesting viewpoint. The guidelines are not s p e c i f i c as to the time period during which the c u t t i n g of adjacent timber (on an a l - ternate cut and leave programme) must be deferred: "...where in t e r p r e t a t i o n s can be obtained from your (B.C. Forest Service) f i e l d o f f i c e r s , overly long greening-up periods are being s p e c i f i e d ( i . e . ten or more years). Also, the 50 per cent r u l e and the 200 acre maximum are being applied r i g i d l y even i n areas where they are ob- v i o u s l y not j u s t i f i e d by the,other values to be protected. There are many cases where t h i s view has been supported by f i s h and w i l d l i f e b i o l o g i s t s . " (C.O.F.I., 1973.a) The basic deferment p o l i c y appears to have several serious impacts: a) Road construction requirements are often being increased to com- p l e t e l y impracticable l e v e l s . "Costs of b u i l d i n g roads have r i s e n from $32,000 per mile i n 1971 to an estimated $51,000 per mile next yearV (McMurray, 1974a). Not only have the costs been s u b s t a n t i a l l y 39 increased, but the sheer l o g i s t i c s of the problem are also giving cause for concern: "In order to sustain production, a high l e v e l of construc- t i o n w i l l be necessitated i n a l l seasons because the a d d i t i o n a l c a p i t a l , s k i l l e d labour, engineering s t a f f and equipment required are simply not a v a i l a b l e to accomplish t h i s construction i n a shorter period." (C.O.F.I., 1973) b) The d i s p e r s a l of logging based on a 50 per cent alternate cut p o l i c y i s also a major problem i n i t s own r i g h t . Write-off costs i n road amortization c a l c u l a t i o n s have had to be s u b s t a n t i a l l y i n - creased as can be deduced from the following statement by D.W. Timmis (President and Chief Executive O f f i c e r of MacMillan Bloedel L t d . ) : " A v a i l a b i l i t y of timber from MB developed roads has dropped from 74 per cent i n 1971 to an expected 42 per cent i n 1975 and 35 per cent i n 1977..." (McMurray, 1974a)^ The guidelines not only attempt to solve old problems, but i n many cases they appear to create new ones, as evidenced by G. Ainscough (Chief Forester of MacMillan Bloedel Ltd.): "Intended to disperse logging and reduce the impact on f i s h , w i l d l i f e and aesthetics, they force the industry to b u i l d vastly-increased mileages of roads with atten- dant increase i n sedimentation and greater impact on the whole watershed..." (Taylor, 1975a). c) Substantial increases i n windthrow and slashburning damage have also been observed: "Timmis described the rules and regulations as ludicrous. Because more openings were being made i n the f o r e s t s , for instance, the area that was vulnerable to windthrow has been increased. Damage from windthrow has increased very considerably." (Lyon, 1974) Although s u s c e p t i b i l i t y to blowdown i s very v a r i a b l e i n Coastal B.C., s i g n i f i c a n t increases have been a t t r i b u t e d to the e f f e c t s of the ;| guidelines i n l o c a l areas. Parker (1975) said, " . . . i n one area on the West coast, blowdown accounted for approximately 3% t o t a l pro- duction. Now, with the guidelines, blowdown has ballooned to 10%." 40 Increased blowdown r e s u l t s i n a d d i t i o n a l f i b r e l o s s , more chance of personal i n j u r y , increased salvage costs as w e l l as rendering adja- cent immature stands more susceptible to insect attack, d) A 50 percent cut and leave program means that operators have to develop twice as much forest area i n order to harvest a given timber volume. D i f f i c u l t i e s have already been encountered i n t r y i n g to f i n d future supplies of timber, and i n p a r t i c u l a r 'winter shows' (Lyon, 1974). The l a t t e r are e s s e n t i a l to ensure continuity of employment and f u l l u t i l i z a t i o n of equipment. Planning - A very important impact of guidelines has been apparent i n the f i e l d of development planning. As a r e s u l t of these guide- l i n e s , twice as much area i s being developed and more resource values are being considered i n these areas. Consequently the onus i s upon Government agencies to speed up the review procedures for c u t t i n g permit applications i n order to ensure continuity of wood supplies. This does not appear to have been the case. McMurray (1974b) quoted Mckenzie who said the Truck Loggers Association (T.L.A.) had complained about the lack of coordination between Government departments i n dealing with applications f o r timber cutt i n g permits, p a r t i c u l a r l y with the F i s h and W i l d l i f e Branch. Fisher, when interviewed by McMurray (1975a) had much the same to say: " . . . q u a l i f i e d foresters charged with administering them (the guidelines) have been placed i n a p o s i t i o n where every decision can be challenged, or even vetoed by other departments who have no i n t e r e s t or knowledge of f o r e s t r y or economics." Taylor (1975b), commenting about the T.L.A. Convention i n Vancouver stated: "The loggers have been complaining of coast cutt i n g guide- l i n e s , stumpage assessments; left-hand, right-hand s i t u a - tions i n which government.departments come into c o n f l i c t 41 and issue c o n f l i c t i n g orders; p o l i t i c a l interference; un- due environmental influence; delay and lack of o f f i c i a l a ction; and a myriad of other things that have put them i n a f i n a n c i a l s t r a i t j a c k e t . " A useful suggestion for improving the s i t u a t i o n was offered by Young, i n an interview with McMurray (1975a). As a personal view, he sug- gested that B.C. set up a department of natural resources handling a l l resources i n a given area. Furthermore, departments should be structured v e r t i c a l l y instead of h o r i z o n t a l l y as at present, to ex- pedite handling and improve e f f i c i e n c y . Costs - There have been numerous comments made by p r i v a t e industry as to the cost increases brought about by the guidelines. It appears that these grievances are p r i m a r i l y centred around i n c o r r e c t apprai- s a l c a l c u l a t i o n s rather than questioning the basis for the increased costs. McMurray (1974a) quoted Timmis as follows: "We are not asking for handouts or subsidies or anything l i k e that. A l l we are asking f o r i n the c a l c u l a t i o n of stumpage i s proper allowance for costs based on actual figures not h i s t o r i c estimates, plus some r e l i e f from the guidelines and close u t i l i z a t i o n r u l e s . " In a l a t e r e d i t o r i a l , McMurray (1974b) stated: "In i t s presentation on forest guidelines, the T.L.A. showed Barrett and Williams comparative figures for a Fraser Valley logging operation. Under the new rules the T.L.A. sai d , the logger would have a loss of $11.50 per 100 cubic feet of timber cut as apposed to an opera- t i n g p r o f i t of $7 under the old r u l e s . The T.L.A. argued that the $18.50 "swing" between the two examples was not unique and said that the s i t u a t i o n could apply i n varying degrees i n a l l logging operations." In a b r i e f to Mr. I.T. Cameron, the Council of Forest Industries (C.O.F.I., 1973a) gave a summary of t h e i r estimate of the cost per cunit increase for a ' t y p i c a l Coast logging operation'. This c a l - c u l a t i o n showed an increase from $32.72 per cunit to $38.42 per cunit. In t h e i r supporting discussion, the Council expressed concern that industry may have to bear some of t h i s cost increase on Crown lands, and that no mechanism existed to defray these costs on pri v a t e ten- ures. B. FAILURE TO MEET OBJECTIVES. The Council of Forest Industries (C.O.F.I., 1973a) considered that the guidelines were developed without adequate con- s u l t a t i o n with the industry or, apparently, with other resource de- partments: "There have been serious reservations expressed by know- ledgeable people as to the e f f i c i e n c y of the Guidelines to meet the objective to preserve these other values. These Guidelines ignore many of the workable procedures which have been established i n cooperation with other resource agencies." Probably the most important way i n which the guidelines have depart- ed from t h e i r o r i g i n a l objectives i s i n t h e i r apparent i n f l e x i b i l i t y . Timmis stated i n an interview with Lyon (1974): "...guidelines are supposed to be l i n e s by which you are guided. The Forest Service^however, i s imposing them as i n f l e x i b l e r u l e s . . . " The basis of the problem l i e s e s s e n t i a l l y i n the chronic understaff- ing and lack of finances f o r the Forest Service and other resource agencies, although t h i s s i t u a t i o n i s improving. Because of t h e i r lack of d e f i n i t i v e information on values other than those of the timber resource, i t appears that the Forest Service has taken the attitude of accepting the demands of other resource agencies and sp e c i a l i n t e r e s t groups without regard to trade-offs. The s i t u a t i o n i s not improved when representatives from various other agencies are not aware of t h e i r o v e r a l l r o l e i n multiple resource d e c i s i o n making. Ainscough provided the following example of p o t e n t i a l con- f l i c t s i n goals: "I am t o l d by w i l d l i f e b i o l o g i s t s that t h e i r objective i s the maintenance of a maximum deer population - t h i s i s simply not compatible with intensive forest management." (Taylor, 1975a) Severe Site Guidelines. 1) Devitt (1974) prepared a summary of comments made by a Task Force, appointed by the Reforestation Board of the Tree Farm Forestry Committee to examine the contents of the Severe Site Guidelines. Critiques were received by the Task Force from foresters i n Govern- ment agencies, p r i v a t e industry and u n i v e r s i t y , however, the author i s not at l i b e r t y to quote i n d i v i d u a l s ' submissions (Devitt, pers. comm.). The following i s a b r i e f review of the findings of the Task Force: In general, foresters were agreed upon the intent of the guide- l i n e s , i n p a r t i c u l a r the necessity for regeneration planning p r i o r to harvesting. However, i t was f e l t that the guidelines were formu- lat e d i n the narrow s i l v i c u l t u r a l or e c o l o g i c a l sense rather than from an in-depth understanding of the problem. Clear statements of objectives, c r i t e r i a and standards were found to be l a c k i n g , as well as a r e a l i s t i c appreciation of the f i n a n c i a l implications and p r a c t i c a l l i m i t a t i o n s of the guidelines. Concern was expressed that these guidelines would be treated as rules and regulations at a non- pro f e s s i o n a l l e v e l , and the need for f l e x i b l e and dynamic l o c a l i n t e r - p retation was stressed. Factors such as elevation, s i t e index or the presence of mountain hemlock and t h i n s o i l s were not considered r e l - i a b l e i n d i c a t o r s of severe s i t e s . The question was raised as to whe- ther or not i t would be expedient to p r a c t i c e more intensive forest management on good s i t e s at low elevations, than to engage i n expen- sive harvesting and s i l v i c u l t u r a l p r a c t i c e s at high elevations. Foresters i n companies holding p r i v a t e tenures f e l t that the current 44 i n s e c u r i t y of tenure made priv a t e i n i t i a t i v e for improved forest management very d i f f i c u l t . They wondered i f land assessment or other Crown revenue producing procedures would allow for the a d d i t i o n a l costs of environmental protection. In general, foresters f e l t that workable guidelines could not be based s o l e l y on the 'Reuter report' which had such a l i m i t e d scope, and that more supporting studies and s i t e s p e c i f i c information were needed. The Association of B.C. Professional Foresters also expressed t h e i r views on several important points developed i n the guidelines to the Chief Forester (Anderson, 1974). In reply, Young (1974) stated that the guides were intended to apply to a range of s i t e s regardless of elevation, and that imposition of the '40-20 r u l e ' M e - pended l a r g e l y on the regeneration plan submitted. He noted that the Forest Service had subsequently reworded the section r e s t r i c t i n g logging on s o i l s with 'one foot mantles', to permit some f l e x i b i l i t y of choice not previously a v a i l a b l e . Young added that the guidelines would undergo further discussion and possible adjustment at t h e i r upcoming management meeting. The r e s u l t s of t h i s meeting have not yet been made a v a i l a b l e . 3.7 Discussion of the main f i n a n c i a l impacts of the logging guidelines. In the l i g h t of the previous statements, i t would ap- pear that there are s u b s t a n t i a l cost increases associated with both sets of guidelines. For the purposes of t h i s discussion, the major sources of cost increase w i l l be examined, but the question as to how these costs are l i k e l y to be d i s t r i b u t e d w i l l be outlined l a t e r on i n the t h e s i s . The most s i g n i f i c a n t source of cost increase was considered to be the increased i n t e r e s t costs r e s u l t i n g from higher unamortized investments being c a r r i e d over the longer period of time needed to develop the t o t a l volume of timber i n a given area. For example, the unamortized investment at the end of the f i r s t 'pass' would be charged i n t e r e s t u n t i l some of the accumulated d e f i c i t could be written o f f i n the second or subsequent passes. Substantial cost i n - creases would also be apparent i n road maintenance. F i r e access roads would have to be maintained each year u n t i l the t o t a l volume of timber i n an area had been removed. The 50 per cent 'cut and leave' p o l i c y also implies that developable areas of mature timber w i l l be cut over twice as f a s t , because only h a l f of the volume i n a given area can be removed. This would appear to have several f i - n a n c i a l implications: 1. Moving-in costs and the cost of s i t e improvements would increase f o r two main reasons. F i r s t l y because of the lower volumes ava i l a b l e with which to write o f f these costs, and secondly because operations would become more remote a l o t f a s t e r , n e c e s s i t a t i n g more complete camp rand shop f a c i l i t i e s . 2. Assuming that p r i o r to the guidelines the best q u a l i t y and most accessible stands were developed f i r s t , the e f f e c t would now be that the poorer q u a l i t y , more in a c c e s s i b l e stands become a v a i l - able f a s t e r . This implies not only increased harvesting and road construction costs, but also lower q u a l i t y timber andibhigher trans- portation costs than otherwise would have been the case. 3. This basic p o l i c y may also be i n c o n f l i c t with one of the objectives of sustained y i e l d . For example, shortages may develop i n l o c a l areas where the leave period i n between passes i s too long to maintain continuity of supply. In f a c t , major operators and the often closely associated dead and down salvage operators may find i t worth their while to transfer their processing activities else- where to cut down transportation costs. Consequently, community instability may result in those settlements heavily dependent on the benefits of the local timber industry. 4. A speedier cut-over of developable areas w i l l require a great deal more effort on behalf of other resource agencies in gather- ing the necessay information for multiple resource planning and de- cision making. If review procedures for cutting permit applications are not made more efficient", operators w i l l be faced with the pros- pect of layoffs and idle machinery. The other major category of cost increases can be attributed to the special stream protection measures; improved harvesting stan- dards; road, bridge and culvert construction standards; and to modi- fied s i l v i c u l t u r a l systems required under the Severe Site Guidelines. Without detailed analyses, i t is not possible to estimate the mag- nitude of these additional costs. However, i t is f e l t that they would not be so substantial as those discussed under the f i r s t category. It is not clear whether or not the creation of Environmental Protec- tion Forests would necessarily be a cost. In many cases i t would appear that these forests are sub-marginal in economic terms, but have been harvested under the instructions of the Forest Service for purposes of 'good timber u t i l i z a t i o n ' . If these areas were de- leted and allowable cuts not reduced, i t would appear that net social benefits may be increased. In view of the fact that price increases and technological innovation may render these stands economically viable in the future (with environmental protection costs taken into account), i t does not appear just i f i a b l e to reduce annual allowable cuts at the present moment. Instead, t h i s action may be considered as a mere r e d i s t r i b u t i o n of cut based on current notions of economic a c c e s s i b i l i t y and environmental protection. 48 4.0 EVALUATION OF THE COSTS AND BENEFITS OF LOGGING GUIDELINES. 4.1 Introduction. The c e n t r a l assumption i m p l i c i t i n any evaluation of public p o l i c y a l t e r n a t i v e s i s that the o v e r a l l objective i s to a l l o - cate resources into those a c t i v i t i e s which maximize net s o c i a l bene- f i t s . Objective decision making i n the f i e l d of multiple natural resources becomes very d i f f i c u l t by v i r t u e of the fact that there are so many intangible aspects to the problem. Consequently, i n - stead of using any s i n g l e c r i t e r i o n for evaluating the best course of action, attention must ne c e s s a r i l y be given to the use of several 'in d i c a t o r s ' . These may include economic e f f i c i e n c y e f f e c t s , and i n - come d i s t r i b u t i o n e f f e c t s as w e l l as environmental and s o c i a l e f f e c t s . Information gathered under each of these four categories i s intended to delineate the best that can be made av a i l a b l e to the p o l i c y maker, which he, i n turn, can apply to a value framework which he perceives as representative of the views of the p u b l i c . When evaluating the economic e f f i c i e n c y e f f e c t s of logging guide- l i n e s , i t must be remembered that these function within the basic p o l i c y framework of sustained y i e l d which i s not based on economics. Consequently, c e r t a i n management a l t e r n a t i v e s which may be deemed ' e f f i c i e n t ' i n an analysis of logging guidelines may turn out to be ' i n e f f i c i e n t ' when viewed i n an o v e r a l l economic perspective. Annual allowable cut constraints and the f e l l i n g decisions which are based on b i o l o g i c a l c r i t e r i a may be cases i n point. These basic constraints w i l l be accepted, however, i n the following quantitative analyses, although reference may be made to t h e i r inadequacy i n subsequent discussions. The following d e s c r i p t i o n of evaluation procedures i s intended to be as concise as possible. I t should be remembered that t h i s £ topic has an immense scope and a major thesis could be written on almost every aspect of tangible and i n t a n g i b l e , d i r e c t and i n d i r e c t , costs and b e n e f i t s . A supporting l i t e r a t u r e review has been omitted although important references have been c i t e d where necessary. 4.2 Evaluation of q u a n t i f i a b l e costs and b e n e f i t s . 4.21 Review of Available Data. Data on the resources of the Chilliwack and e s p e c i a l l y non-timber resources were found to be very scanty and frequently not up-to-date (Benskin, 1974a). Because r e s u l t s of the 1974-75 inventory f o r the Dewdney P.S.Y.U. had not yet been p u b l i s h - ed, the author had to r e l y on data from the 1962-63 Inventory Report (B.C.F.S., 1968). However, up-to-date topographic and forest cover maps with cruise data were a v a i l a b l e for l o c a l areas that had been recently harvested or were destined for cutt i n g i n the near future. The Westwater Research Centre studies, mentioned i n the Introduction were reviewed to see i f they would be of some value i n t h i s quanti- t a t i v e analysis (Benskin, 1974a). Although they contained u s e f u l background information on the resources of the Chilliwack, the few quantitative data c i t e d were considered to be of l i t t l e use. The B.C. Forest Service Vancouver D i s t r i c t made av a i l a b l e i t s Dewdney P.S.Y.U. Working Plan which was found to consist of a booklet en- closing 2 mile to the inch base maps with overlays depicting f o r e s - try projects and proposals, a l i e n a t i o n s , areas of p a r t i c u l a r im- portance for w i l d l i f e and recreation, and forest management tenures. No quantitative information was a v a i l a b l e . The most comprehensive review of basic resources i n the Chilliwack was found to be the r e - cently completed Phase I of the 'Integrated Resource Management Plan for the Chilliwack P r o v i n c i a l Forest' (B.C.F.S., 1974). Altogether, 16 agencies were involved i n compiling information for t h i s plan, and a number of t h e i r contributing studies have already been c i t e d i n t h i s t h e s i s . Although a few more s t a t i s t i c s concerning other res- ources were outlined i n the plan, i t became in c r e a s i n g l y evident that a quantitative evaluation of those resources was impossible on the basis of the a v a i l a b l e data. The conclusion was drawn that any meaningful analysis of the guidelines would ne c e s s a r i l y have to be based on a quantitative assessment of f o r e s t r y costs and bene- f i t s with a supporting discussion of other resource values. 4.22 Methodology f o r Evaluating Forestry Costs and Benefits. The major constraint a f f e c t i n g choice of method was the lack of data for evaluating the benefits of guidelines. In terms of f o r e s t r y , the major benefits may be improved a r t i f i c i a l and natural regeneration performance r e s u l t i n g from reduced c l e a r - cut sizes and improved logging. This would be r e f l e c t e d i n possible improvements i n successor crop volume as w e l l as i n an e a r l i e r date of maturation. However, because these guidelines have only been i n e f f e c t for two years, there are no data to substantiate these p o s s i b i l i t i e s . Data from a number of relevant research projects i n the United States were examined, but for a v a r i e t y of reasons they were not considered s u i t a b l e . The author had l i t t l e a l t e r n a t i v e but to make the neces- sary assumptions i n order to f i l l t h i s obvious information gap. These w i l l be discussed l a t e r . On the basis of the discussion i n Section 3.6 the evaluation of q u a n t i f i a b l e costs and b e n e f i t s asso- ciated with the f o r e s t resource, was divided into two parts. The f i r s t analysis was designed to evaluate the r e d i s t r i b u t i o n of timber harvest over time. A compound-interest model was used to ca l c u l a t e the value of opportunities forgone by changing the sequence of road construction and volumes harvested over time, i n return for expected benefits of fa s t e r and improved a r t i f i c i a l and natural regeneration. In other words with the aid of an in t e r e s t rate, the discounted costs and revenues from harvesting the e x i s t i n g and successor crop had to be compared, for conditions e x i s t i n g p r i o r to, and a f t e r , the guidelines. The discounting procedure can be expressed as f o l - lows : P.N.W. = Present Net Worth, i n d o l l a r s . =? Revenue derived from s e l l i n g logs harvested from the e x i s t i n g forest during year 1, i n d o l l a r s . = T o t a l logging costs incurred during year 1, i n d o l l a r s . r = Revenue derived from s e l l i n g logs harvested from the suc- cessor crop during year n, i n d o l l a r s . c n = Tota l logging cost incurred during year n, i n d o l l a r s . p = Interest rate (in t h i s case, the s o c i a l rate of discount), i n decimals. This approach accounts f o r the flow of costs and benefits over time and f a c i l i t a t e s t h e i r comparison at any p a r t i c u l a r period of concern. Some may prefer to use end-value analyses to j u s t i f y investments, r -c n „ n P.N.W. = (l+p)n where: and problems can a r i s e i f large changes r e s u l t because of uncertainty A second analysis was needed to evaluate s p e c i f i c increases i n har- vesting and road construction costs a t t r i b u t a b l e to the guideline recommendations. In view of the considerable t e c h n i c a l expertise behind the method developed by the Council of Forest Industries (C.O.F.I., 1973b), the author considered i t worthwhile to modify and update t h e i r procedure and apply i t to conditions i n the C h i l l i - wack P r o v i n c i a l Forest. Time constraints as w e l l as a lack of d e t a i l e d information for the whole of the Chilliwack P r o v i n c i a l Forest, required that a d e t a i l ed study be made only i n representative sample drainages. Paleface and Depot Creeks, located side by side at the 'south eastern end of Chilliwack Lake (See Figure 7 9 ) - were selected for the following reasons: 1. Both drainages were f a i r l y c h a r a c t e r i s t i c of the general conditions encountered i n the f o r e s t . 2'. They had both been logged recently, and up to date develop- ment plans were av a i l a b l e for the e n t i r e area of both drainages. This i s i n contrast to several other drainages, which had been logged i n t e r m i t t e n t l y over a longer period of time. 3. Only one major operator had been harvesting the timber i n both areas. Cattermole Timber Ltd. was found to be very h e l p f u l i n providing the necessary cruise maps and c u t t i n g plans, as w e l l as discussing the operations and costs i n - volved. Another advantage was that because only one opera- tor was involved, work had been completed with the same standards, machinery and method of costing. 4 . Both drainages were i n the process of being logged when the 1972 Coast Logging Guidelines were introduced. Future cutting plans had to be altered to comply with the new regulations. The way i n which they were, and any cost i n - creases involved, were considered to be of p a r t i c u l a r im- portance to t h i s study. The following two sub-sections w i l l show the basic assumptions, the methods of computation, and w i l l discuss the r e s u l t s of the two ca- tegories of analysis mentioned above. For purposes of s i m p l i c i t y they w i l l be described as 'Net Present Value Method' and 'CO.F.I. Method'. 4.23 Net Present Value Method. 4.231 Logging plan preparation. In order that the changes i n cash flow over time could be evaluated, i t was necessary to have comparative figures of wood volume and road construction flows over time. The f i r s t task was to prepare four 'logging plans' showing c u t t i n g block layout, firebreaks, road, bridge and culvert locations for both Paleface and Depot Creeks as follows: 1. Pre-1972 Guideline operation. 2. Actual operation. 3. 1972 Guideline operation. 4 . Severe S i t e Guideline operation. Copies of the development plans for the f i r s t two 'operations' were already a v a i l a b l e . These were supplied by J . Livland and Assoc., the consulting firm employed by Cattermole Timber Ltd. to prepare i t s c u t t i n g permit a p p l i c a t i o n s . These maps consisted of combined topographic, forest cover and cruise information at scales of either 20 chains to the inch or 800 feet to the inch. Development proposals were superimposed on some of these maps, and the remaining copies without t h i s information were intended for planning the other two operations. Hypothetical plans were prepared to conform to the 1972 Coast Logging Guidelines and to the Severe Site Guidelines for Depot Creek only. A '1972 Guideline Operation' was prepared for Paleface Creek; however, the phys i c a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of t h i s drainage pre- vented a d i f f e r e n t i n t e r p r e t a t i o n for the Severe Site Guidelines from being made. A f t e r consultation and considerable r e v i s i o n , t entative approval for these hypothetical operations was obtained from Catter- mole Timber Ltd., J . L i v l a n d and Assoc., the B.C. Forest Service Vancouver D i s t r i c t s t a f f , the Fis h and W i l d l i f e Branch i n Burnaby, as well as l o c a l t e c h n i c a l s t a f f i n Chilliwack. A v i s u a l comparison of these plans showed that although there were s i g n i f i c a n t differences i n l o c a t i o n and extent of c u t t i n g blocks between operations, road locati o n s were not very d i f f e r e n t because of the lack of reasonable a l t e r n a t i v e s i t e s . Copies of these maps are av a i l a b l e on request from the author. 4.232 Evaluation of cost and revenue flows over time. The f i r s t step i n estimating the magni- tude of cost and revenue flows over time involved planning the hy- p o t h e t i c a l rate of harvest of the e x i s t i n g crop and the required road construction. Cutting plan maps showed the average C U . volumes per acre (less decay) and extent of each f o r e s t type within the l i m i t s of 'accessible' timber as defined and agreed upon by the Forest Service and Cattermole Timber Ltd. The extent of i n d i v i d u a l forest types within c u t t i n g blocks had to be determined i n order to obtain the t o t a l volume for each block. J . Livland and Assoc. (pers. comm.) provided a species breakdown for each forest type, and so the volume by species could be determined for i n d i v i d u a l c u t t i n g blocks. A considerable problem arose i n t r y i n g to decide how much timber should be 1 cut' i n these drainages each year f o r the four operations under consideration. In order to have a basis for comparison and yet maintain some realism i n the evaluation, the actual volume scaled per year over the period 1969-74 i n each of the two drainages was obtained from the B.C. Forest Service Vancouver D i s t r i c t o f f i c e . Although these figures applied i n part to the 'pre-1972 Guideline Operation' and the 'Actual Operation', the problem arose as to how the remaining timber i n the drainages should be harvested ( i . e . that a c t u a l l y deleted from c u t t i n g under the gui d e l i n e s ) . Furthermore, what rate of cu t t i n g should be adopted f o r the hypothetical operations? It was decided to apply two sets of volume-flow-over-time assumptions to each drainage. The f i r s t would be an 'actual cut per year'_base1d on how r f ast -the iriinr- ber destined to be harvested sometime i n the future. With respect to any of the guideline operations, t h i s would mean that the f i r s t pass would be based on an 'actual cut per year', and subsequent passes on an 'average cut per year'. The other a l t e r n a t i v e was that a l l operations except the 'Actual Operation' would be harvested on an 'average cut per year' basis , which would improve the basis for comparison. As a r e s u l t of these assumptions, the volumes harvested each year for a l l four operations i n both drainages could be deter- mined. By applying the average 1974 market prices per cunit for each species, the revenue flows over time could be estimated. Once the l o c a t i o n , acreage and volume cut per year were deter- 56 mined, the next stage of the analysis involved c a l c u l a t i n g how many roads, bridges and culverts needed to be constructed i n order to r e a l i z e t h i s volume. It was assumed that a l l roads, bridges and c u l - verts required f o r a given year's timber harvest had to be construc- ted i n the previous year i f t h i s was at a l l possible. Furthermore, • the-average road would have to be maintained -for at le a s t three years, including the year of construction. In contrast, f i r e access roads would require maintenance each year, u n t i l the l a s t remaining t r a c t of timber (including w i l d l i f e c orridors and primary firebreaks) had been removed. The l a t t e r assumption appeared to be f a i r l y r e a l - i s t i c , not only from the f i r e c o n t r o l standpoint, but also that pub- l i c access could be maintained i n developed areas. It was also as- sumed that main roads under the guidelines would require decked bridges and 72 inch s t e e l c u l v e r t s , as opposed to branch and spur roads which would only have d i r t - f i l l e d bridges and wooden c u l v e r t s . The l a t t e r would require replacement at the s t a r t of each subsequent logging 'pass' i n the future. For the purposes of t h i s analysis i t was assumed that logging costs, other than the improvements i n road, bridge, culvert and maintenance costs s p e c i f i e d above, did not s i g n i f i c a n t l y d i f f e r as a r e s u l t of guidelines. This p a r t i c u l a r aspect w i l l be analysed i n greater d e t a i l i n the CO.F.I. method. On the other hand, i t was considered i n t e r e s t i n g to compare d i f f e r e n t notions of current logging costs as expressed by the Council of Forest Industries, Cattermole Timber Ltd. and the B.C. Forest Service Appraisals Section. A summary of these cost assumptions w i l l be presented i n a l a t e r section. 57 4.233 Planting and planting cost assumptions. The problem faced i n evaluating the impact of guidelines on planting success was lack of d e f i n i t i v e data. Evidence was needed to answer such questions as: 'How much w i l l percentage success be improved by reducing c l e a r cut s i z e ? ' and 'What e f f e c t do elevation and aspect have on t h i s r e l a t i o n s h i p ? ' The following d e s c r i p t i o n outlines the development of the basic as- sumptions made i n order to f i l l t h i s information gap. The Reforestation Section of the B.C. Forest Service Vancouver D i s t r i c t was consulted as to the nature and extent of t h e i r a r t i f i - c i a l regeneration records f o r the Chilliwack P r o v i n c i a l Forest. Individual data cards were a v a i l a b l e for each plantation showing the number of trees planted, year of planting, species, stock type and nursery of o r i g i n . Because of the time l i m i t a t i o n s for t h i s study these data could not be aggregated and analysed. However, a summary table of 57 observations of Douglas-fir plantations established over the period 1958-71 between the elevations of 800 and 4300 feet i n the Cultus Lake Ranger D i s t r i c t , were obtained from Hahn (pers. comm.). These data were to be analysed with the main objective of f i n d i n g out the main factors i n f l u e n c i n g percentage pl a n t i n g success. The following v a r i a b l e s were a v a i l a b l e : No. of naturals per acre. No. of planted trees surviving per acre at f i n a l survey. No. of years a f t e r planting. No. of years a f t e r burning. Spring or F a l l planting. Average elevation of Plantation. Aspect. No. of acres planted. 58 Percentage s u r v i v a l figures were also shown i n the data provided for 41 of the 57 plantations. Altogether 14 of the missing values were rel a t e d to plantations established below 2000 feet. Because these data were rather d i f f i c u l t to obtain from other sources, i t was assumed that the i n i t i a l number of trees planted was 650 per acre. The mean number of trees planted per acre f o r the other plan- tations below 2000 feet was 699, so the previous assumption would tend to over-estimate percentage planting success. M u l t i p l e regression analyses and analyses of variance and cov- ariance were c a r r i e d out and the r e s u l t s reported (Benskin, 1974b). Several i n t e r e s t i n g conclusions were drawn from these data. F i r s t l y , there was found to be no c o r r e l a t i o n between the number of naturals per acre and elevation (or any of the other possible v a r i a b l e s ) . This observation w i l l be discussed i n greater d e t a i l i n the next section. Secondly, the r e s u l t s showed that although there were s i g - n i f i c a n t differences i n percentage planting success between the f i v e e levation ranges considered, once;the v a r i a t i o n '•due; to-Spring or F a l l p l anting had been removed, no s i g n i f i c a n t differences were apparent. This was due to the fact that a greater amount of F a l l p l a n t i n g i n the higher e l e v a t i o n ranges resulted i n the observed poorer s u r v i v a l , and not the higher a l t i t u d e . The following multiple regression equa- t i o n i l l u s t r a t e s the calculated r e l a t i o n s h i p between percentage sur- v i v a l , elevation and Spring or F a l l p l anting: Y 89.203 - 7.346 x± - 7.817 x £ 2 where Y % s u r v i v a l of Douglas-fir. x. 1 Elevation Range (Numbered from 1 to 5). x, '2 Spring (1) or F a l l (2) planting. Standard error of estimate = 24.862 F (variance r a t i o ) = 14.609** (with 2 and 54 degrees of freedom). Although Reuter (1973) showed an apparent decrease i n pl a n t a t i o n success with increasing elevation, he f a i l e d to s t a t i s t i c a l l y v e r i f y that there was such a r e l a t i o n s h i p and that other factors (such as "Spring or F a l l planting) were not p a r t i a l l y responsible. However, because the above mentioned data represented only a small sample for a l i m i t e d area and because the r e s u l t s were contrary to the basis f o r the Severe Site Guidelines, i t was decided to ignore the e f f e c t s of Spring or F a l l planting d i f f e r e n c e s . The following figures there- fore only represent the mean planting success with 95 per cent con- fidence l i m i t s f o r each of the f i v e elevation range classes considered Elevation Range ( f t . ) No. obs. Mean percent success 95% Conf. l i m i t s 17 63 -13 16 59 -13 7 47 -20 10 39 -17 7 15 -20 57 The 95 per cent confidence l i m i t values w i l l be used i n the next section as o p t i m i s t i c and pe s s i m i s t i c a l t e r n a t i v e s to the mean plant- ing success figu r e s . (The former figure may represent the r e s u l t s of future improvements i n planting technique, stock type and so on.) The next problem was to decide on how clearcut s i z e influences natural recruitment, and how many trees have to be planted i n order to achieve a 'desirable'ff iiture'Tcrop. •In.view^of ^th^^uncert'ainty of future successor crop volumes, Smith (pers. comm.) suggested the < 2000 2000-2500 2501-3000 3001-3500 >3500 use of v a r i a b l e density y i e l d table data which he had recently com- p i l e d for the B.C. Forest Service P r o d u c t i v i t y Committee. The 0 objective would be to plant as many trees as are necessary to achieve the maximum possible number of trees per acre for each s i t e c l a s s . By using values for both Douglas-fir and western hemlock i t was pos- s i b l e to accomodate the p o s s i b i l i t y that an i n i t i a l Douglas-fir plantation might revert to an e s s e n t i a l l y hemlock stand because of natural recruitment. Certain a d d i t i o n a l assumptions were made as to mortality and net recruitment per acre over the r o t a t i o n s , depend- ing on four clearcut width classes. The above assumptions, combined with the mean percentage planting success values with confidence l i m i t s determined above, enabled the determination of the number of trees to be planted on an o p t i m i s t i c , average and p e s s i m i s t i c basis. An example of the r e s u l t i n g values for Douglas-fir S i t e Class I i s shown i n Table I I . Altogether, 360 values were calculated for the two species, three s i t e classes, four clearcut width classes, f i v e elevation ranges, as well as for the o p t i m i s t i c , average and p e s s i - m i s t i c a l t e r n a t i v e s . Values ranged from 175 to 4551. The l a t t e r f i g u r e would normally represent several planting operations required to get a s i t e s a t i s f a c t o r i l y regenerated. For purposes of s i m p l i c i t y i t was assumed that t h i s number would be planted at a given point i n time. In order to r e l a t e these data to the c u t t i n g plan maps, i t was necessary to c a l c u l a t e the extent of good, medium and poor s i t e s i n each c u t t i n g block, as well as s p e c i f y i n g the c l e a r c u t width c l a s s . The l a t t e r c r i t e r i o n turned out to be more subjective than was f i r s t a n t i cipated, and other factors such as the influence of l o c a l topography, p r e v a i l i n g wind d i r e c t i o n and the p o t e n t i a l of adjacent stands as seed sources were also taken into account be- TABLE II BASIC ASSUMPTIONS AND NUMBER OF TREES TO PLANT IN ORDER TO ACHIEVE THE MAXIMUM NUMBER OF SUCCESSOR CROP TREES PER ACRE MAX AGE MORTALITY MIN NET NEED TO ELEVATION NUMBERS OF TREES TO PLANT TO ACHIEVE NT/AC. MAX NT/AC. CLEARCUT RECRUIT- ESTABLISH RANGE ( f t . ) MAX NT PER ACRE. NT. WIDTH MENT NT/AC. (CHAINS) PER AC. OPTIMISTIC AVERAGE PESSIMISTIC 208 50 75 20 150 133 2000 175 210 263 208 50 75 20 150 133 .,2000-2500 184 224 288 208 50 75 20 150 133 2501-3000 198 280 482 208 50 75 20 150 133 3001-3500 237 337 583: 208 50 75 20 150 133 =*3500 379 870 1361 208 50 75 40 100 183 ^2000 241 287 362 208 50 75 40 100 183 2000-2500 253 309 396 208 50 75 40 100 183 2501-3000 272 386 664 208 50 75 40 100 183 3001-3500 326 463 799 208 50 75 40 100 183 >3500 521 1197 1873 208 50 75 60 50 233 ^ 2000 306 367 460 208 50 75 60 50 233 2000-2500 322 393 505 208 50 75 60 50 233 2501-2500 346 491 845 208 50 75 60 50 233 3001-3500 415 590 1018 208 50 75 60 50 233 >3500 663 1524 2385 208 50 75 60 + 0 283 2000 372 446 758 208 50 75 60 + 0 283 2000-2500 392 477 614 208 50 75 60 + 0 283 2501-3000 422 597 1025 208 50 75 60 + 0 283 3001-3500 504 716 1236 208 50 75 60 + 0 283 ^3500 806 1851 2888 ON 62 fore ratings were f i n a l i z e d . The t o t a l cost per planted seedling was estimated from basic p r i n c i p l e s using 1974 data supplied by the Council of Forest Indus- t r i e s (Ross, pers. comm.). Values f o r Douglas-fir and western hem- lock were derived as follows: Basic assumptions: Contract planting cost (per ,1000 plants) $110.00 Cost of seed c o l l e c t i o n and extraction per l b . (Douglas-fir)..$ 20.00 Cost of seed c o l l e c t i o n and extraction per l b . (western $ 50.00 hemlock) Cost of 1000 v i a b l e seeds (Douglas-fir) $ 1.25 Cost of 1000 v i a b l e seeds (western hemlock) $ 0.50 The above figures were applied to production costs f o r four types of plan t i n g stock as follows: Type of pla n t i n g Production cost T o t a l Cost (per 1000) stock. (per 1000) Douglas - f i r western hemlock Bareroot 2 + 1 $50 $161.25 $160.50 Bareroot 2 + 0 $25 $131.25 $130.50 Mudpack 2 + 1 $80 $191.25 $190.50 Mudpack 2 + 0 $50 $166.25 $165.50 Discussions with the Council of Forest Industries suggested that 2 + 0 mudpacks were most sui t a b l e for pla n t i n g at high elevations. For the purpose of s i m p l i c i t y i t was assumed that t h i s planting stock would be used, and that the approximate t o t a l cost per 1000 plants planted f o r e i t h e r species would be $170 i . e . $0.17 per plant. 4.234 Natural Regeneration. The influence of environmental factors on the performance of natural regeneration i s a very complex subject, and there are a great many schools of thoughti;as to the important 63 contributing influences. I m p l i c i t i n the Severe Site Guidelines i s the assumption that cleareut s i z e , shape and o r i e n t a t i o n , logging impacts, aspect and elevation are among the most s i g n i f i c a n t f a c t o r s , and that past harvesting p r a c t i c e s have to be r a d i c a l l y improved to improve natural regeneration i n high elevations. The above s t a t i s t i c a l analysis showed however, that there was no apparent r e l a t i o n s h i p between ele v a t i o n and the number of naturals per acre between 1958 and 1971 for the Cultus Lake Ranger D i s t r i c t . Further- more, i t appeared that despite the 'disastrous' harvesting p r a c t i c e s of past years, the mean number of naturals per acre for a l l eleva- tions was s t i l l 200 (range: 0-2000). On the basis of an open to nor- mal growth regime t h i s appears to be a p e r f e c t l y reasonable i n i t i a l stocking (Smith pers. comm.). In view of the fact that more analyses are necessary before d e f i n i t e conclusions can be drawn, i t w i l l be assumed that aspect (northerly or southerly), cleareut s i z e and period- i c i t y of seed supply are the most important factors i n f l u e n c i n g nat- u r a l regeneration. The cleareut s i z e ratings derived i n the previous section were also used here for n a t u r a l l y regenerated stands. It should be remembered that ratings were based on a number of f a c t o r s other than purely the magnitude of the cleareut area. Hetherington (1965) stated that even moderate crops of hemlock, cedar and amabilis f i r seeds could not be expected more than once i n 4 or 5 years. On the basis of h i s observations, i t was assumed that s i t e s with the smallest cleareut s i z e ratings would, on average, be regenerated i n 5 years. Furthermore that the more favourable northerly aspected s i t e s would be regenerated 2 years e a r l i e r and southerly'" s i t e s 2 years l a t e r . The 5 year average figure was increased to 10 for the next si z e r a t i n g and so on, with the same time d i f f e r e n t i a l for' aspect 64 incorporated, as above. The r e s u l t i n g values shown i n Table I II represent 'regeneration lag' times, and must be added on to>the normal ro t a t i o n age i n order to approximate the year of matura- ti o n of n a t u r a l l y regenerated stands. 4.235 Successor crop. Variable density y i e l d tables were used to simulate the range of possible density conditions associa- ted with the successor crop. Smith (pers. comm.) provided a sum- mary table which showed for each species and s i t e c l a s s , the r o t a - t i o n age and y i e l d for f i v e density classes (expressed i n terms of percentage of average basal area 9.1" and + per acre). These data are shown i n Table IV. This approach was considerably better than using the only l o c a l volume over age curve for the Dewdney P.S.Y.U. (C + C M j X and H + •) » which indicated a r o t a t i o n age of 107 years and a y i e l d of 7250 cubic feet per acre. Only one successor crop p o s s i b i l i t y could have been evaluated using t h i s method, as opposed to the 30 p o s s i b i l i t i e s a v a i l a b l e i n the v a r i a b l e density y i e l d table approach. TABLE III NATURAL REGENERATION LAG TIMES Clearcut r a t i n g Minimum clearcut width Regeneration Lag (Years) (chains) North South 1 <. 20 3 7 2 ^ 2 0 ^ : 40 8 12 3 ^ 4 0 ^ 6 0 13 17 4 >60 18 22 TABLE IV VARIABLE DENSITY YIELD TABLE SUMMARY FOR DOUGLAS FIR AND WESTERN HEMLOCK* SPECIES SITE STAND DENSITY CLASSES (% of;average B.A., 9.1" & + per acre) CLASS ; : 1-50% 51-80% 81-120% 121-150% 151 + % (OPEN) (SPARSE) (NORMAL) (DENSE) (VERY DENSE) YIELD IN CUBIC FEET AND ROTATION AGE IN BRACKETS HEMLOCK 1 2160 (60) 6017 (70) 10023 (74) 15411 (77) 18631 (86) 2 4067 (120) 6024 (110) 8844 (110) 13328 (114) 19069 (120) 3 1815 (110) 1809 (80) 3081 (85) 5453 (85) 7178 (104) DOUGLAS- 1 4844 (78) 5355 (64) 10511 (75) 13393 (71) 13271 (70) FIR 2 2398 (70) 5219 (80) 8046 (79) 11283 (83) 12054 (72) 3 2033 (114) 2632 (100) 3108 (82) 4303 (80) 6661 (80) * For each species, values have not been harmonized for a l l s i t e and stand density classes. The values given are those from sorted data summaries only. 4.236 Summary of cost and revenue data. Cost and revenue data tend to be very v a r i a b l e depending on t h e i r source and method of estimation. A considerable discrepancy was observed between B.C. Forest Service ap- praised costs for logging i n Paleface and Depot Creeks ( A p r i l 1974 appraisal sheet) and those quoted by Cattermole Timber Ltd. (Richard- son pers. comm.) who a c t u a l l y logged these drainages. In t h i s regard, the Council of Forest Industries (Ross fpers. comm.) f e l t that Forest Service appraisals were about 10 per cent too low on average. For purposes of comparison, a l l three cost a l t e r n a t i v e s were included i n the analysis (Table V). Average market prices for A p r i l 1974, for the major species under consideration were obtained from the B.C. Forest Service Vancouver D i s t r i c t o f f i c e . In order to have three a l t e r n a t i v e revenue assumptions, a r b i t r a r y 'high' or 'low' estimates were also included (Table V). These costs and revenues were assumed for the estimation of cash flow from harvesting the e x i s t i n g timber crop i n both drainages. In view of the uncertainty of cash flows from the future crop, i t was decided to use current stumpage prices for Douglas-fir and western hemlock instead of c a l c u l a t i n g revenues and costs separately. A r b i t r a r y high and low al t e r n a t i v e s were also used (Table V). The fundamental assumption was made that r e l a t i v e costs and prices would remain constant over time. The evaluatory procedure would have^been far more complex had changes i n demand, technological improvements and d i f f e r e n t rates of cost and p r i c e increases been taken into account. Three rates of i n t e r e s t were used to discount the costs and revenues from harvesting the e x i s t i n g and successor crops. A 6 per cent rate was considered to be a r e a l i s t i c value for the long run s o c i a l rate of return for Government in v e s t - 67 TABLE V SUMMARY OF COST AND REVENUE DATA Cost or Revenue item. A l t e r n a t i v e s ($)* A B C Costs Yarding and skidding costs/cunit 10.35 11.38 11.44 Log Transportation costs/cunit 12.90 14.19 12.23 Contractual costs/cunit 0.15 00:16 0.15 Administrative costs/cunit ,2.45 .2^69 _ ** Forestry costs/cunit 0.20 0.22 0.50 Log making costs/cunit 3.05 3.35 3.00 Operational overhead'icost/cunit 7.70 8.47 12.19 Main road cost per mile 24,091 26,500 37,500 Branch road cost per mile 24,091 26,500 55,000 Spur road cost per mile 24,091 26,500 55,000 Reopened road cost per mile 5,000 5,500 10,000 Road maintenance cost per mile 600 660 2,000 Cost of decked bridge s(50f span, 100 ton max.) 4,000 4,400 8,000 Cost of d i r t f i l l e d ' bridge (50'span, 100 ton max. ) 1,300 1,430 4,500 Cost of 72'' s t e e l c ulvert c 1,000 1,100 1,500 Cost of wooden culvert : O 150 165 300 Total cost for one planted tree 0.17 0.19 0.20 Revenues Douglas-fir s e l l i n g p r i c e per cunit 60 73 80 Western Hemlock s e l l i n g p r i c e per cunit 60 60 66 Amabilis f i r s e l l i n g p r i c e per cunit 58 60 64 Western red-cedar s e l l i n g p r i c e per :unit 60 60 66 Yellow cedar s e l l i n g p r i c e per cunit . 255 255 280 Douglas-fir stumpage p r i c e per cunit 19 13 21 Western hemlock stumpage p r i c e per cunit 8 13 9 *Cost a l t e r n a t i v e s A B C ; re s p e c t i v e l y B.C.F.S., C.O.F.I., Cattermole Timber Ltd. (Only one B.C.F.S. road cost f i g u r e was given i n the appraisal f o r a l l roads.) **Cattermole Timber Ltd. estimate of administration costs i s combined with operational overheads. ments. Other values of 8 per cent and 10 per cent were used to e- valuate s e n s i t i v i t y to i n t e r e s t rates. 4.237 Description of the computer model used to evaluate net present worth. A computer program was prepared i n order to c a l c u l a t e the above mentioned cash flows over time, and to discount them to the present for comparison (Appendix I I ) . The adopted pro- cedure was as follows: Each data card read by the program represented a c e r t a i n year of a given harvesting operation, where either roads were being constructed and/or timber was harvested. Altogether 30 items of information were coded on each card, as shown i n Table VI. These data enabled the computer to cal c u l a t e a l l costs and revenues for that p a r t i c u l a r year, as well as estimating any planting costs and the net value of the successor crop on any areas that had been harvested. These present and future costs and revenues were then discounted to the present by one of the three a l t e r n a t i v e rates of int e r e s t and stored. The same procedure was adopted f o r each year of a given operation, and repeated for each rate of cut assumption, drainage and rate of i n t e r e s t and stored. Al summary-flow chart--out- l±riingvthis>foianiof'i8ensitivity. analysis';is'-'shown-in'.Figure - 1 0 ? .Afnumb.er of additiorial-'assumptions had :to .be made" withuregard;to "the leave' periods-requireduin. guideMhes:-' • ••y.n -~ - V r . ir> • IC o 1\.jrcA: t o t a l oiiilO years rmust .elap^seibe.tween-Eeons'ecufiv.e"harve'st- a : '!'.—ing. p.assesG_ i f • •"••1.JL" - '.'^az^^lonh" 2. Transverse v a l l e y firebreaks ̂ - w i l d l i f e preserved'ireasand- .. • streami-prdtection b e l t s are harvested 20 years a f t e r the TABLE VI LIST OF DATA CARD PARAMETERS Computer Code Description CREEK Drainage number. Rate of cut assumption number. OPERAT^ Operation number. YR Year. GNAC No. of acres of good s i t e harvested (N. aspect). MNAC No. of acres of medium s i t e harvested (N. aspect). PNAC No. of acres of poor s i t e harvested (N. aspect).. GSAC No. of acres of good s i t e harvested (S. aspect). MSAC No. of acres of medium s i t e harvested (S. aspect). PSAC No. of acres of poor s i t e harvested (S. aspect), TA Total no. of acres harvested. CCRATN Av. cleareut s i z e r a t i n g for N. aspected s i t e s . CCRATS Av. cleareut s i z e r a t i n g for S. aspected s i t e s . NER Av. e l e v a t i o n range for N. aspected cleareut s i t e s . SER Av. elevation range f o r S. aspected cleareut s i t e s . TVOL To t a l volume harvested for a l l species (M cf.) FVOL Douglas-fir volume (M cf.) HVOL Western hemlock volume (M cf.) BVOL Western red-cedar volume (M cf.) BVOL Amabilis f i r volume (M cf.) CYVOL Yellow cedar volume l(M cf.) MAIN Main roads constructed (Miles) BRANCH Branch roads constructed (Miles) SPUR Spur roads constructed"(Miles) REOPEN Roads reopened (Miles) MTCE Roads maintained (Miles) BRIG 1 No. of decked bridges constructed. BRIG 2 No. of d i r t - f i l l e d bridges constructed. BGCULV No. of s t e e l culverts constructed. SMCULV No. of wooden culverts constructed. FIGURE 10 FLOW CHART SHOWING ALTERNATIVE ASSUMPTIONS FOR NET PRESENT WORTH MODEL. Interest Rate Cost and Revenue Assumptions Slashburning Species Successor Crop Density No. of Trees to Plant Douglas-fir 5 density classes Western hemlock—»• 5 density classes * Western hemlock—*5 density classes Optimistic, average & pess i m i s t i c assumptions for each density c l a s s (for slashburned areas o n l y ) . 8 (as above) 10 (as above) o main body of timber has been removed. Furthermore, these have to be harvested i n two passes to comply with the guidelines. 3. The problem of the duration of Environmental Protection Forests i n Depot Creek (under the Severe S i t e Guidelines) was approached i n two ways. The f i r s t a l t e r n a t i v e was that t h i s forest would 'never' be harvested, and secondly that i t could be harvested 40 years a f t e r the main body of tim- ber had been removed - together with other temporarily de- ferred areas. The computer program was designed to p r i n t out a matrix of 134 net present worth values for each of the assumptions i l l u s t r a t e d i n Figure 10. One of these matrices was calculated f or each rate of cut assumption, operation, drainage and rate of i n t e r e s t . A l i s t of the t i t l e s of these matrices i s shown i n Table VII. 4.238 Results of the a n a l y s i s . A number of features were immediately apparent when examining these r e s u l t s . The range of net present worth values for any given matrix was found to be comparatively small. This implied that the e f f e c t of species di f f e r e n c e s , cost assumptions, number of trees to plant ( i n the case of a r t i f i c i a l regeneration) and the density of the successor crop were not very s i g n i f i c a n t . This observation may be contrasted with the considerable differences observed between operations, i n t e r e s t rates and rate of cut assump- tions i n that order of importance. In order that the l a t t e r e f f e c t s could be i l l u s t r a t e d more e f f e c t i v e l y , the range and mean value were calculated f or each matrix and these are presented i n Table VIII. In view of the small differences observed for other f a c t o r s , i t was TABLE VII LIST OF TITLES OF NET PRESENT WORTH MATRICES. U?,'&s®t3-lW,& QdV'kZ DRAINAGE OPERATION RATE OF CUT ASSUMPTION PALEFACE CREEK PRE-1972 GUIDELINES Actual + Average cut per year PALEFACE CREEK PRE-1972 GUIDELINES Average cut per year PALEFACE CREEK ACTUAL OPERATION Actual + average cut per year PALEFACE CREEK 1972 GUIDELINES Actual + average cut per year PALEFACE CREEK 1972 GUIDELINES Average cut per year DEPOT CREEK PRE-1972 GUIDELINES Actual + average cut per year DEPOT CREEK PRE-1972 GUIDELINES Average cut per year DEPOT CREEK ACTUAL OPERATION Actual + average cut per year DEPOT CREEK 1972 GUIDELINES Actual + average cut per year DEPOT CREEK 1972 GUIDELINES Average cut per year DEPOT CREEK SEVERE SITE GUIDELINES Actual + average cut per year (E.P.F. PERMANENT) DEPOT CREEK SEVERE SITE GUIDELINES A v e r a g e cut per year (E.P.F. PERMANENT) DEPOT CREEK SEVERE SITE GUIDELINES Actual + average cut per year (E.P.F. SEMI-PERMANENT) DEPOT CREEK SEVERE SITE GUIDELINES Average cut per year (E.P.F. SEMI-PERMANENT) riot? considered worthwhile to, uhder/take;any sophisticated analysis of those r e s u l t s . Table IX shows the observed reductions i n net present worth when 'pre - 1972 Guideline Operations' are compared with other operations. In view of the apparent importance a t t r i b u t e d to the successor crop i n the guidelines, i t was considered i n t e r e s t i n g to ca l c u l a t e the percentage of the t o t a l net present value that was at t r i b u t a b l e to the successor crop. This required only a s l i g h t -i-i m o dification to the computer program, and a. summary of the r e s u l t s f o r the 8 per cent rate of i n t e r e s t a l t e r n a t i v e i s shown i n Table X. Although these values frequently d i f f e r e d by a factor of 10 within any given matrix, t h e i r absolute magnitude suggested that further analyses were unnecessary. TABLE VIII RANGE AND MEAN VALUES OF NET PRESENT WORTH MATRICES FOR PALEFACE AND DEPOT CREEKS* Drainage Interest Rate Cutting Rate (Actual and/or average) Range and Mean Values of Net Present Worth Matrices ( in $00) Pre-1972 Actual 1972 Severe Site Severe S i t e Guideline Operation Guideline Guidelines Guidelines Operation Operation (E.P.F. Perm- (E.P.F. Semi- anent) permanent) Range Mean Range Mean Range Mean Range Mean Range Mean Paleface 6% Act + Av 9144- 12504 9713- 11075 5661- 7851 Creek 15864 12437 10041 8% II 8089- 11040 8337- 9524 4657- 6497 - - - - 13991 10711 8337 10% II 7181- 9782 7263- 8314 3910- 5493 - - - - - 12392 9364 7075 6% Av 9903- 13435 - — 6500- 8834 - - - - 16966 11168-= 8% II 8958- 12127 — _ 5562- 7575 - - - - 15295 9588 10% II 8133- 10990 — - 4853- 6627 - - - - 13847 8400 Depot 6% Act + Av 13614- 18295 11105- 15516 8913- 12580 6632- 9031 6499- 8876 Creek 22976 19927 16246 11430 11252 8% II 13054- 17528 10469 14623 8144- 11536 5844- 7884 5.742- 7858 22002 18776 14927 10123 9973 10% II 12558- 16843 9968- 13913 7575- 10758 5264- 7212 5198- 7129 21127 17858 13940 9160 9060 6% Av 12447- 16425 — — 8222- 11348 5396- 7667 5278- 7528 20403 14474 9937 9778 8% II 11384- 15083 — — 7214- 10019 4524- 6504 4437- 6397 18782 12823 8484 8356 10% II 10438- 13890 — — 6441- 8999 3883- 5648 3829- 5580 17342 11556 7413 7330 Paleface Creek: Total a v a i l a b l e mature volume = 108610 C c f . ; t o t a l area = 1304 acres. Depot Creek: To t a l a v a i l a b l e mature volume = 113260 C c f . ; t o t a l area = 1057 acres. TABLE IX PERCENT REDUCTION IN PRESENT NET WORTH OF OTHER OPERATIONS COMPARED TO THE PRE-1972 GUIDELINE OPERATION Drainage Interest Rate Cutting Rate Pre-1972 Guideline Operation Percent Reduction i n Net Present Worth Actual Operation 1972 Guideline Operation Severe Site Guidelines (E.P.F. Permanent) Severe S i t e Guidelines (E.P.F. Semi Permanent) Paleface 6% Act + Av 0 -11% -37% Creek 8% 0 -14% -41% 10% ' 0 -15% -44% 6% ) 0 - -34% 8% Av 0 - -38% 10% 0 - -40% Depot 6% Act + Av 0 -15% -31% -51% -51% Creek 8% &r 0 -16% -34% -55% -55% 10% 0 -17% -36% -57% -58% 6% 0 - -31% -53% -54% 8% Av. 0 - -34% -57% -58% 10% 0 - -35% -59% -60% TABLE X RANGE AND MEAN VALUES OF THE PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL NET PRESENT WORTH CONTRIBUTED BY THE SUCCESSOR CROP Drainage Interest Cutting Range and Mean Values of Percentage of Total Net Present Worth Contributed by the Successor Crop. Rate Rate (Actual and/or average) Pre-1972 Guideline Operation .Actual Operation 1972 Guideline Operation Severe Site Guideline Operation (E.P.F. Perm- anent ) Severe Site Guideline Operation (E.P.F. Semi- Permanent) • • ' • . . . Range Mean Range Mean Range Mean Range Mean Range Mean Paleface Creek 8% Act + Av .00493- .31308 0.15900 .00847- .50241 0.25544 .01337- .66763 0.34050 - - Av .00497- .30704 0.15600 - - .01409- .67614 0.34512 - - Depot Creek 8% Act + Av .01386- .18238 0.09812 .01415- .20896 0.11155 .01821- .31257 0.16539 .02635- 0.21022 .39409 .02595- 0.20944 .39294 Av .01466- .19885 0.10675 - - .01850- .28835 0.15343 .02809- 0.23689 .44569 .02771 0.23649 .44527 In general, slashburning and planting of Douglas-fir r e s u l t i n g i n a 'very dense" successor crop gave the highest percentage contribution.^ The lowest values under the assumptions made were associated with no slashburning and an open-successor crop of western hemlock. 4.239 Discussion of Results. The r e s u l t s of t h i s analysis showed a considerable decline i n net present worth of guideline operations when compared to pre-1972 guideline operations. This reduction was not o f f s e t to any appreciable extent by improvements i n successor crop status e.g. by reduced regeneration l a g , l e s s trees to plant, reduced r o t a t i o n age or higher successor crop'volumesi In- fact,- the.:percen- tage of t o t a l net present worth a t t r i b u t e d to the successor crop was found to range from .005% to .313% before the guidelines to between .013% and .676% a f t e r the guidelines. The apparent improvement i n i t s s i g n i f i c a n c e a f t e r the guidelines however, was due to the o v e r a l l decline i n net present worth rather than an improved absolute value per se. The conclusion may be drawn, that i n f i n a n c i a l terms very l i t t l e emphasis should be placed on c o s t l y measures designed to im- prove successor crop performance. Even with f a i r l y generous assump- tio n s , the expected returns appear to be very low. Assessing the s i g n i f i c a n c e of the observed decline i n net present value proved to be an i n t e r e s t i n g problem. The question may be asked, 'Does t h i s a c t u a l l y constitute a cost, and i f so, now w i l l i t be borne?' I t should be remembered that the stream of costs and revenues used i n t h i s model were rel a t e d to a fixed area i . e . ei t h e r Paleface or Depot Creek. In other words the implementation of guidelines resulted i n a reduction i n net present worth within a f i x e d area. However, the Dewdney P.S.Y.U. currently has a supply of mature timber which could, by i t s e l f , l a s t f o r at l e a s t 90 years without consideration of the growth of immature stands or improvements i n u t i l i z a t i o n standards. Stated d i f f e r e n t l y , there may be no cost associated with deferring timber harvest within a given area because there are a l t e r n a t i v e s a v a i l a b l e . Economic theory suggests that net present worth must be maximized with respect to the most l i m i t i n g f actor. The question i s , 'What i s the l i m i t i n g f a c t o r ? ' It appears that the l i m i t i n g f a c t o r i s the extent of the area developed i n order to obtain a given allowable annual cut. Thus, the most appropriate c r i t e r i o n would be to maximize net present worth (or economic rent) per developed acre. Other c r i t e r i a , such as maximizing net present worth per $100 invested would not be appropriate here, because under the concept of sustained y i e l d each acre i s given equal p r i o r i t y regardless of d i f f e r e n t i a l rent functions. The fact that very c o s t l y r e f o r e s t a t i o n a c t i v i t i e s are being undertaken at high elevations, i n contrast to more intensive management of good s i t e s at low eleva- tions i s a case i n point. The c r i t e r i o n of maximizing net present worth per developed acre was applied to the r e s u l t s shown i n Table VIII. Each value was divided by the t o t a l acreage of the appropriate drainage, because the 'developed' area remains constant i n each case (the area p h y s i c a l l y harvested at a given point i n time w i l l of course d i f f e r ) . Results of these c a l c u l a t i o n s are given i n Table XI. The following conclusions may be drawn from t h i s a n a l y s i s : The objective of sustained y i e l d management within the Dewdney P.S.Y.U. i s the perpetuation of long term timber supplies, at a constant or increasing l e v e l . This i s achieved by harvesting a fixed volume over a c e r t a i n area every year, as determined by the Hanzlik formula plus an area/volume allotment check. Logging guidelines have been introduced i n order to enhance environmental values and possibly fores- t r y values over these l i m i t e d developed areas. The previous analysis showed that by operating over a more extensive area, the p o t e n t i a l TABLE XI NET PRESENT WORTH VALUES PER DEVELOPED ACRE AND PER CUNIT*. Drainage Interest Cutting Rate Rate (Actual and/or average) Pre-1972 Guideline Operation Actual Operation 1972 Guideline Operation SevereSSite Guideline Operation (E.P.F. Perm- anent) Severe Site Guideline Operation (E.P.F. Semi- Permanent) Net present worth values ($) per developed acre (and per cunit) Paleface 6% Act + Av 959 (11.51) 849 (10.20) 602 (7.23) _ _ Creek 8% 847 (10.16) 730 (8.77) 498 (5.98) - - 10% " 750 (9.01) 638 (7.65) 421 (5.06) - - 6% Av 1030 (12.37) - 677 (8.13) - - 8% " 930 (11.17) 581 (6.97) - - 10% 843 (10.12) 508 (6.10) - - Depot 6% Act + Av 1731 (16.15) 1470 (13.70) 1190 (11.11) 856 (7 .97) 840 (7.84) Creek 8% " 1658 (15.48) 1383 (12.91) 1091 (10.19) 746 (6 .96) 743 (6.94) 10% V 1593 (14.87) 1316 (12.28) 1018 (9.50) 682 (6 .37) 674 (6.29) 6% Av 1554 (14.50) - 1076 (10.02) 725 (6 .77) 712 (6.64) 8% " 1427 (13.32) - 948 (8.85) 615 (5 .74) 605 (5.65) 10% 1314 (12.26) — 851 (7.95) 534 (4 .99) 528 (4.93) * Paleface Creek: t o t a l a v a i l a b l e mature volume = 108610 C c f . ; t o t a l area = 1304 acres. Depot Creek: t o t a l a v a i l a b l e mature volume = 113260 C c f . ; t o t a l area = 1057 acres. economic rent (expressed i n terms of net present worth) of each de- veloped acre was d r a s t i c a l l y reduced even when harvesting and road construction cost increases were ignored. We can assume that the i m p l i c i t objective of forest management i n B.C. i s to maximize the p o t e n t i a l returns from timber and other resources i n those l i m i t e d areas which are developed each year; i t i s doubtful however, that the 1972 Coast Logging Guidelines are capable of achieving t h i s . It i s u n l i k e l y that the p o t e n t i a l l o s s i n economic rent from the timber resource can be j u s t i f i e d i n terms of improvements i n other resource values i n a l l areas on the Coast where these guidelines are being applied. 4.24 CO.F.I method. 4.241 Introduction and basic assumptions. In contrast to the previous a n a l y s i s , the CO.F.I. model was designed to analyse s p e c i f i c cost increases (on a per cunit basis) a t t r i b u t a b l e to improving road, bridge and culvert construction requirements and harvesting p r a c t i c e s under the 1972 Coast Logging Guidelines. The r e s u l t s of t h i s analysis were summarized i n a b r i e f to Mr. I.T. Cameron (then, Chief Forester of the B.C. Forest Service), o u t l i n i n g the Council's main objections to these guidelines. The basic assumptions made i n t h i s a n a l y s i s were outlined i n discussions with Shebbeare (pers. comm.) and these were then applied to the data obtained for both Paleface and Depot Creeks. A s i m i l a r undertaking was not considered for the Severe Site Guidelines: any cost increases demonstrated by t h i s model would also be incurred i f these guidelines were adopted. In order to im- prove on the o r i g i n a l CO.F.I. model, costs were updated and a l t e r - native leave periods and i n t e r e s t rates also incorporated. March 1974 rental rates for T.L.A. operations (Wellburn pers. comm.) were increased by 10 per cent to approximate machinery costs for January 1975. The use of rental rates avoided consideration of overhead ' costs which would have made calculations unnecessarily complex. Other costs cited in the text were also obtained from Wellburn. The basic assumptions used in this model are as follows: 1. The average C.U. volume per acre on the Coast is 75 cunits. 2. The average C.U. production per shift for a steel spar on the Coast is 75 cunits. 3. The average Coast operation gets 175 shifts per year, i.e. logs 175 acres per year. 4. At 550 f t . yarding (800 f t . on long corners), a f u l l set- ting i s 25 to 30 acres, and roads are 17 chains apart. 5. A l l costs and cost increases of roads, bridges and reopened roads due to the guidelines are allowed for in stumpage appraisal calculations. 6. Profit and risk before and after the guidelines are constant, and may therefore be ignored in this evaluation. 4.242 Road costs. 1. Before Guidelines. An^average Coast road i s built by grade shovel at approximately 1% stations of subgrade per shift i.e. 5 miles per year at 175 shifts per year. Rock work (cat and d r i l l ) requires approximately 100 shifts. Ballast (loader, two trucks and spreader cat) takes 50 shifts. Roughly 7 culverts per mile are re- quired with bridges extra. COSTS (for 5 miles of road per year) $ Shovel 175 s h i f t s @ $387 67725 D r i l l 100 s h i f t s m $374 37400 D8 cat 100 s h i f t s @ $409 40900 Loader (Cat 966C) 50 s h i f t s @ $290 14520 Trucks (35iton) 2 x 50 s h i f t s @ $238 23800 Spreader (Cat 16) 50 s h i f t s @ $284 14200 Culverts 7 per mile x 5 miles @ $150 ea. 5250 Foreman 17000 220795 . One mile of road costst$44,159 (say $44,000). 2. A f t e r Guidelines. It was assumed that the 'favourable' s o i l moisture conditions s p e c i f i e d f o r road construction under the guidelines, would reduce the season to 5 months req u i r i n g double s h i f t i n g . P r o d u c t i v i t y f a l l s o f f on the night s h i f t , supervision and maintenance are poorer and wage premiums are required. Poorer q u a l i t y . ' labour i s a v a i l a b l e for a short year. I t was assumed that h a l f the number of culverts per mile need to be upgraded to 72" s t e e l @ $1500 i n s t a l l e d , to allow for the 25 year storm. Tightening l o - cation requirements was assumed to add an average of 5 per cent to costs. COSTS (for 5 miles of road per year) $ Shovel, 110 day s h i f t s @ $387 plus 80 night 42570 s h i f t s @ 80% e f f i c i e n c y , 25% higher i'-.jr'J maintenance; 15<7hr. labour premium, 34150 D r i l l , 60 daysshifts @"' $374 •arid.'-5:0',rii|ht s h i f t s (as above) @ $385. " 41690 D8 cat, 60 day s h i f t s @ $409 and 50 night s h i f t s (as above) @ $430. 46040 Loader, 50 s h i f t s @ $290. 14500 Trucks, 2 x 50 s h i f t s @ $238. 23800 Spreader cat, 50 s h i f t s @ $284. 14200 Culverts, 18 @ $150 2700 17 @ $1500 25500 Foreman @ $17,000 per year 17000 Night foreman, 80 s h i f t s @ $100 8000 270160 82 5% added costs (location charges) 13508 283669 . . One mile of road costs $56,734 (say $57,000)*. 4.243 Bridge costs 1. Before Guidelines. In the Chilliwack Provincial Forest, the 'average' bridge i s d i r t - f i l l e d , has a 50 f t . span and is designed to take an impact load of 100 tons. Assuming $100 a lineal foot, cost is $5000 ea. 2. After Guidelines. A design i s required to meet a 25 year flood; extra care in construction to meet fisheries requirements and some relocations, are assumed to add about 20% to costs. Bridges need to be reconstructed, i f used in the second and subsequent passes. Assuming $120 a lineal foot, cost is $6000 ea. 4.244 Road maintenance. 1. Before Guidelines. Spur and branch roads are assumed to require maintenace for an average of three years, including the year of construction. Cost i s assumed to be $2000 per mile year. The reader i s drawn to the attention of a study of the environmental costs in logging road design and construction, which was published after the above calculations were completed. Ottens (1975) used the Wilson Creek Forest Road project in the Nelson Forest District from 1972 to 1974 as a case study to develop and verify a cost accounting system to determine the cost of imposing environmental and aesthetic constraints on logging road design and construction. Ottens calculated that the extra cost of meeting B.C. Forest Service standards for environmental protection, was 18.6% of the total construction cost. His figures were $55,472 per mile of road without environmental expenditures, and $68,159 with these expenditures. Although the absolute values of these figures are considerably higher than those assumed in this thesis, the percentage increase due to environmental protection constraints arevvery similar. 2. A f t e r Guidelines. F i r e access roads have to be main- tained u n t i l the l a s t remaining t r a c t of timber i n the area has been removed. After spur and branch roads have been abandoned for several years i n between passes, these w i l l require reopening where necessary for future timber harvests. Renovation i s assumed to be approximately 20% of the o r i g i n a l cost, and includes removal of brush, repair of s l i d e s and washouts, replacement of c u l v e r t s as well as major r e b a l l a s t i n g and d i t c h i n g : . 20% of $57,000 i s $11,400 (say $11,000). 4.245 Other logging costs. 1. Before Guidelines. The figures below, were obtained from Richardson (pers. comm.) and represent h i s i n t e r p r e t a t i o n of the aver- age costs incurred for logging Paleface and Depot Creeks i n 1974 figu r e s . (Operational overheads and administrative expenses repre- sent an average cost per cunit for a l l harvesting operations within T.S.H.L. A00050, operated by Cattermole Timber Ltd.) COSTS* ($/cunit) Yarding and skidding 11.44 Log Transport 12.23 Contractual costs 0.15 Forestry costs (excluding 10 f t . clause) 0.38 Log making 3.00 Operational overheads & administrative expenses excluding i n t e r e s t charges) 12.19 39.39 2. After Guidelines. The above-mentioned costs are also applicable a f t e r the guidelines, plus c e r t a i n miscellaneous cost *;;Costaitems'arerbased on B.C.F.S. Appraisals Method; component costs may be found i n any B.C.F.S. Appraisal Manual. items as f o l l o w s : COSTS ( P h y s i c a l operating) F a l l i n g 10 f t . t r e e s P l a n t i n g deciduous tr e e s along water courses; ( i . e . 300 ch. creeks per sq. m i l e ; 1/3 plan t e d ; 1 ch. wide @ $100 per acre) F i l t e r S t r i p s (i.'e. assuming 1/3 roads along creeks r e q u i r e s t r i p s , which delay l o g g i n g f o r 2 years and add to subsequent l o g g i n g costs) W i l d l i f e c o r r i d o r s ( i . e . take out 5% of the area form every 10th watershed, adding 17c/cunit to lo g g i n g costs when they occur). Recreation (add 18c/cunit to logging costs i n every 5th watershed). Surround of uniqe features ( i . e . take out 1% of the area from every 2nd watershed.) S p e c i a l streambank treatment (add 50% to logging c o s t s f o r every 2nd watershed). Mo d i f i e d s e t t i n g shapes (add one l a n d i n g f o r every 5th s e t t i n g ) . E x t r a planning and engineering. Perimeter blowdown (e x t r a exposed perimeters add to blowdown, which increases salvage c o s t s ) . T o t a l costs a f t e r g u i d e l i n e s : Logging costs before g u i d e l i n e s . Miscellaneous costs a f t e r g u i d e l i n e s . ($/cunit) .0.12 ; 0.02 0.36 0.02 0.04 0.01 0.17 0.10 0.36 0.17 1.37 39.39 1.37 40.76 I t should be n o t i c e d that l o g transportation, costs per c u n i t were assumed to be constant, before ;. and a f t e r the g u i d e l i n e s . Improve- ments i n road c o n s t r u c t i o n and design may improve average' h a u l i n g i-- speeds, but the average h a u l i n g distance per c u n i t i s a l s o i n c r e a s - ed because of the a l t e r n a t e patch c u t t i n g system. 4.246 Moving and s i t e improvement costs No moving and s i t e improvement costs were included i n t h i s e v a l u a t i o n . A minimum f a c i l i t y camp and work shop were s i t u a t e d at the entrance to Paleface Creek, f o r use when log g i n g t h i s creek and Depot Creek. The a d d i t i o n a l moving i n and moving out costs for these mobile f a c i l i t i e s as a result of guide- lines were assumed to be negligible. In more inaccessible and remote areas of Coastal B.C., these costs would be appreciably higher because of the more complete nature of camps and shops. Moving costs would include the following at the start and finish of each logging pass: 1. Depreciation on buildings due to moving damage. 2. Building positioning, wiring, water and sewage hobk-up. 3. Loading and unloading buildings. 4. Barging between sites. 5. Transfer of fuel and tanks. 6. Administration and supervision. The capital costs of site improvements would include campsite pre- paration and the establishment of a dump and booming ground. These f a c i l i t i e s would have to be reopened at the start of the second and subsequent passes. As regards Cattermole Timber's operations, both dump and booming ground are in permanent locations on the Fraser River next to their m i l l . 4.247 Interest charges Two rates of interest were used in this calculation, 6 per cent and 10 per cent, in order to find out the sensitivity of the f i n a l result. Calculations were extremely long and time consuming, and, therefore, w i l l be not shown in detail. A brief description of the method is as follows: Interest charges on the average unamortized investment from the previous year were added on to the latter figure, giving the total investment at the start of the year. The total investment in bridges, new roads and reopened roads in that year were added up (figures were taken from the basic 86 data for the net present worth a n a l y s i s ) , and amortized by the pro- portion of stumpage allocated to these costs m u l t i p l i e d by the year's harvest. The differ e n c e represented the net investment during that year, which may be p o s i t i v e or negative depending on how many roads and bridges were constructed i n that year. This figure was e i t h e r added or subtracted from the investment at the s t a r t of the year, giving the t o t a l unamortized investment at the end of the year. Interest was charged on the average investment during the year, i . e . the investments at the s t a r t and end of the year divided by two. The same procedure was repeated for each year of harvesting and, or, road construction. The following example i l l u s t r a t e s the c a l c u l a - t i o n of i n t e r e s t charges for the second year of the pre-1972 Guide- l i n e Operation f o r Paleface Creek: YEAR 2 Unamortized investment at s t a r t of year: Interest costs from previous year: Investment at s t a r t of year: Investment during year: Roads, 1.4 mi. @ $44000 Amortized by stumpage: Roads: $6.40/C cf Bridges:$0.28/C cf 13140 Crfcf. x.$6-,68 Net investment during year: Unamortized investment during year: Average investment for year: 146160 + 120425 $139200 $ 6960 $146160 $62040 "¥$.87775 -$ 25735 $120425 =$133293 Interest charge on average investment @ 10% =$ 13329 At the end of the c a l c u l a t i o n , the t o t a l unamortized investment was divided by the t o t a l harvested volume i n order to obtain the i n t e r e s t charge per cunit. In view of the difference of opinion as to the length of the leave period and when firebreaks, w i l d l i f e reserved areas and f i s h e r i e s protection b e l t s should be harvested, several d i f f e r e n t a l t e r n a t i v e s were quant i f i e d : 1. The t o t a l developable volume w i l l be harvested i n four passes i . e . two passes for the majority of the timber, and two passes for remaining areas. A t o t a l of 10 years w i l l elapse between each pass. 2. As above, but only with 5 years between each pass. 3. Firebreaks, w i l d l i f e reserved areas and f i s h e r i e s protec- t i o n b e l t s w i l l be excluded from future logging. A t o t a l of 10 years w i l l elapse between passes. 4. As above, but only with 5 years between each pass. For purposes of s i m p l i c i t y only the 'average cut per year' data previously used, were assumed i n t h i s a n a l ysis. 4.148 Results of the analysis. Results of the CO.F.I. method of analysis are presented i n Table XII to XV. The f i r s t two tables i l l u s t r a t e the cost increases under four d i f f e r e n t i n t e r p r e t a t i o n s of the guide- l i n e s , at an i n t e r e s t rate of 10 per cent; the other two tables show the r e s u l t s of c a l c u l a t i o n s using a 6 percent rate. These tables show that the i n t e r e s t charge not only showed the largest increase i n the guideline a l t e r n a t i v e s , but also was highly s e n s i t i v e to cL changes i n the i n t e r e s t rate. For Paleface Creek, at a 10 per cent rate of i n t e r e s t , i n t e r e s t charges rose from $1.48 per cunit before guidelines to a maximum of $97.47 for assumption E (Table XIII). Re-evaluation at the 6 per cent a l t e r n a t i v e gave a considerably smal- l e r increase, from $0.31 per cunit to $14.94 per cunit. This implies that c a l c u l a t i o n s of cost increases due to the guidelines w i l l d i f f e r very widely, depending on what rate of i n t e r e s t was assumed i n the c a l c u l a t i o n of i n t e r e s t charges. It was also evident that the leave period assumption was very important. Unamortized investments were TABLE XII SUMMARY OF COST IMPACT OF 1972 COAST LOGGING GUIDELINES FOR DEPOT CREEK ( i = 10%) Pre-Guidelines After 1972 Coast Logging Guidelines Assumption: A B C D E Tot a l Available Volume: 113260 i C c f . 92710 C c f . 92710 C cf. 113260 C c f . 113260 C c f . Tot a l Years to Harvest: 7 11 16 23 38 Costs Quantity $/C c f . Quantity $/C c f . Quantity $/C.cf. Quantity $/C c f . Quantity $/C c f . Roads (miles) 16.0 6.21 15.2 9.34 15.2 9.34 16.8 8.45 16.8 8.45 Bridges (units) 4 0.18 4 0.26 4 0.26 8 0.42 8 0.42 Road Mtce. (miles) 62.9 1.11 93 2.01 112.0 2.42 153.0 2.70 209.0 3.69 Reopened Roads (miles) - - 3.8 0.37 3.8 0.37 6.3 0.61 6.3 0.61 Interest Costs @ 10% 1.28 @ 10% 4.62 @ 10% 8.71 @ 10% 14.00 @ 10% 64.89 Other Logging Costs — 39.39 - 40.76 - 40.76 40.76 40.76 T o t a l : 48.17 57.36 61.86 66.94 118.82 Tot a l Harvesting Costs: $5.46 MM $5.32 MM $5.74 MM $7.58 MM $13.46 MM Key: Assumption A: Av. Cut/yr. - 21470 C cf. ; T o t a l volume : Ls harvested. Assumption B: Av. cut/yr. = 21470 C c f . ; 5 years between passes; firebreaks etc. not harvested. Assumption C: Av. cut/yr. = 21470 C c f . ; 10 years between passes ; firebreaks etc. not harvested. Assumption D: Av. cut/yr. = 21470 C c f . ; 5 years between passes; t o t a l volume i s harvested. Assumption E: Av. cut/yr. = 21470 C c f . ; 10 years between passes; t o t a l volume i s harvested. oo oo TABLE XIII SUMMARY OF COST IMPACT OF 1972 COAST LOGGING'GUIDELINES FOR PALEFACE CREEK ( i = 10%) Pre-Guidelines After 1972 Coast Logging Guidelines Assumption: A B C D E To t a l Available Volume:- 108610 C c f . f>90900 C c f . 90;.'900 C c f . 108610 C c f . 108610 C c f . Total Years to Harvest: ••io 14 19 26 41 Costs^ Quantity $/C c f . Quantity $/C cf. Quantity $/C c f . Quantity $/C c f . Quantity $/C c f . Roads (miles) 15.7 6.40 14.0 8.78 14.0 8.78 15.9 8.34 15.9 8.34 Bridges (units) 6 0.28 10 0.66 10 . 0.66 12 0.66 12 0.66 Road Mtce. (miles) 86.9 1.59 104.0 2.29 121.0 2.66 149.0 2.74 199.0 3.66 Reopened Roads (miles) - 6.6 0.80 6.6 0.80 6.6 0.67 6.6 0.67 Interest Costs @ 10% 1.48 @ 10% 5.07 @ 10% 9.95 @ 10% 18.96 @ 10% 97.47 Other Logging costs 39.39 - 40.76 40.76 40.76 - 40.76 T o t a l : 49.14 58.36 63.61 72.13 151.56 T o t a l Harvesting Costs: $5.34 MM $5.30 MM $5.78 MM $7.83 MM $16.46 MM Key: Assumption A: Av. cut/yr. = 13140 C c f . ; Tot a l volume i s harvested. Assumption B: Av. cut/yr. = 13140 C c f . ; 5 years between passes ; firebreaks etc. not harvested. Assumption C: Av. cut/yr. = 13140 C c f . ; 10 years between passes; firebreaks etc. not harvested. Assumption D: Av. cut/yr. = 13140 C c f . ; 5 years between passes ; t o t a l volume i s harvested. Assumption E: Av. cut/yr. = 13140 C c f . ; 10 years between passes; t o t a l volume i s harvested. OO TABLE XIV SUMMARY OF COST IMPACT OF 1972 COAST LOGGING GUIDELINES FOR DEPOT CREEK ( i = 6%) Pre-Guidelines ,„,, _ T . „ , . Afte r 1972 Coast Loggxng Guidelines Assumption: A B C D E To t a l Available Volume: 113260 C cf. 92710 C cf. 92710 C c f . 113260 C c f . 113260 C c f . Tot a l Years to Harvest: 7 11 16 23 38 Costs Quantity $/C c f . Quantity $/C c f . Quantity $/C c f . Quantity $/C c f . Quantity $/C c f . Roads (miles) 16.0 6.21 15.2 9.35 15.2 9.35 16.8 8.45 16.8 8.45 Bridges (units) 4 0.18 4 0.26 4 0.26 8 0.42 8 0.42 Road Mtce. (miles) 62.9 1.11 93.0 2.01 112.0 2.42 153.0 2.70 209.0 3.69 Reopened Roads (miles) - - 3.8 0.37 3.8 0.37 6.3 0.61 6.3 0.61 Interest Costs @ 6% 0.57 @ 6% 2.23 @ 6% 3.67 @ 6% 4.48 @ 6% 11.99 Other Logging Costs - 39.39 40.76 40.76 - 40.76 - 40.76 Tot a l : 47.46 54.98 56.83 57.42 65.92 Tota l Harvesting Costs: $5.38 MM $5.10 MM $5.27 MM $6.50 MM $7.47 MM Key: Assumption A. Av. cut/yr. = 21470 C c f . ; T o t a l volume i s harvested. B. Av. cut/yr. = 21470 C cf. ; 5 years between passes; firebreaks etc. not harvested. C. Av. cut/yr. = 21470 C c f . ; 10 years between passes ; firebreaks etc. not harvested. D. Av. cut/yr. = 21470 C cf. ; 5 years between passes; t o t a l volume i s harvested. E. Av. cut/yr. = 21470 C c f . ; 10 years between passes ; t o t a l volume i s harvested. V O o TABLE XV SUMMARY OF COST IMPACT OF 1972QC0AST LOGGING GUIDELINES FOR PALEFACE CREEK ( i = 6%) Pre-Guidelines A f t e r 1972 Coast Logging Guidelines Assumption : A B C D E T o t a l A v a i l a b l e Volume: 108610 C cf 90900 C cf. 90900 C cf. 108610 C c f . 108610 C cf. Total Years to Harvest: 10 14 19 26 41 Costs Quantity $/C cf. Quantity $/C c f . Quantity $/C cf . Quantity $/C cf. Quantity $/C c f . Roads (miles) 15.7 6. 40 14.0 8.78 14.0 8.78 15.9 8.34 15.9 8.34 Bridges (units) 6 0. 28 10 0.66 10 0.66 12 0.66 12 0.66 Road Mtce. (miles) 86.9 1. 59 104.0 2.29 121.0 2.66 149.0 2.74 199.0 3.66 Reopened Roads (miles) - 6.6 0.80 6.6 0.80 6.6 0.67 6.6 0.67 Interest Costs @ 6% 0.31 @ 6% 2.88 @ 6% 4.80 @ 6% 6.25 < a 6% 14.94 Other logging costs 39. 39 40.76 40.76 40.76 - 40.76 Tot a l : 47. 97 56.17 58.46 59.42 69.03 Total Harvesting Costs: $5.21 MM $5.11 MM $5.31 MM $6.45 M M $7.50 MM Key: -.- Assumption A. Av. cut/yr. = 13140 C c f . ; Total volume i s harvested. Assumption B. Av. cut/yr. = 13140 C c f . ; 5 years between passes; firebreaks etc. not harvested. Assumption C. Av. cut/yr. = 13140 C c f . ; 10 years between passes ; firebreaks etc. not harvested. Assumption D. Av. cut/yr. = 13140 C c f . ; 5 years between passes; t o t a l volume i s harvested. Assumption E. Av. cut/yr. = 13140 C c f . ; 10 years between passes ; t o t a l volume i s harvested. more than doubled over a 10 year leave period at a 10 per cent rate of i n t e r e s t , and road maintenance costs were also s i g n i f i c a n t l y i n - creased. The t o t a l cost of harvesting i n e i t h e r of the two d r a i n - ages shows an o v e r a l l decline i n assumption B when compared to the other four a l t e r n a t i v e s . This was because the increase i n cost per cunit i n t h i s guideline assumption was not great enough to o f f s e t the reduction i n volume harvested. The reader .should?. not'»:beu"-misled into understanding t h i s to be a reduction i n harvesting costs per se under the guidelines. The volume not a v a i l a b l e i n these d r a i n - ages would have to be obtained elsewhere at the increased cost per cunit. 4.149 Discussion of r e s u l t s . The r e s u l t s of t h i s analysis show that regardless of the way i n which guidelines are interpreted and what i n t e r e s t rates are used i n the c a l c u l a t i o n , these are s t i l l sub- s t a n t i a l cost increases. A comparison of the increased logging costs per cunit with current market prices would i n d i c a t e that i f a l l the above-mentioned costs were taken into account i n stumpage pric e c a l c u l a t i o n s , a net d e f i c i t would r e s u l t . The s i z e of t h i s d e f i c i t would depend on what leave periods and i n t e r e s t rates were considered appropriate. These r e s u l t s c l e a r l y substantiate the fears recently expressed by Mr. W.E.L. Young (Chief Forester, B.C. Forest Service): "...increasing costs of roads and environmental protection w i l l mean that within a decade the forest industry w i l l not be a net producer of revenue to the p r o v i n c i a l govern- ment." (McMurray, 1975b) Young mentioned the a d d i t i o n a l costs of government administration needed to assess equitable stumpage rates, as well as the higher costs of road b u i l d i n g associated with the logging guidelines. It should be remembered that i n the previous c a l c u l a t i o n s , the a d d i t i o n - a l cost of planning road locations and c u t t i n g block layout were those incurred by say a consulting firm i n preparing an acceptable c u t t i n g permit. Costs which are incurred by other government agencies for natural resource inventories i n proposed development areas, impact studies, and administrative expenses for c u t t i n g permit reviews have not been considered i n t h i s a n a l ysis. In view of the more extensive development areas proposed under the guidelines, these costs are l i k e l y to be s u b s t a n t i a l . In order to determine the increase i n logging costs due to guide- l i n e s i n the Chilliwack P r o v i n c i a l Forest, cost increases per cunit were calculated from the r e s u l t s shown i n Tables XII to XV and m u l t i - p l i e d by the average annual C U . harvest between 1970 and 1974, i . e . 77088 cunits. Table XVI shows the range of possible t o t a l cost i n - creases incurred each year using both Paleface and Depot Creek cost assumptions. The t h i r d column represents a weighted average t o t a l yearly cost for both drainages. These r e s u l t s i n d i c a t e that under c e r t a i n assumptions, the t o t a l yearly cost increase for the C h i l l i - wack P r o v i n c i a l Forest i s not very large and may be o f f s e t by other benefits of the guidelines. Assuming that a 6 per cent i n t e r e s t rate i s s u i t a b l y representative of the long run s o c i a l rate of r e - turn, and that assumption E (ten year i n t e r v a l between a l l passes) i s the minimum acceptable (Ingram pers. comm.) the most r e a l i s t i c cost figure appears to be $1,423 MM. If primary firebreaks and other deferred areas are harvested more than 10 years a f t e r the main body of timber has been removed, t h i s figure would be considerably increased. TABLE XVI YEARLY LOGGING COST INCREASE ALTERNATIVES FOR THE CHILLIWACK PROVINCIAL FOREST ($000) Cost Basis: Paleface Creek Depot Creek Average Assumption i = 6% i = 10% i = 6% i = 10% i = 6% i = 10% B 632 711 580 708 606 709 C 809 1,115 722 1,055 765 1,085 D 883 1,7.72 768 1,447 824 1,606 E 1,623 7,895 1,423 5,446 1,521 6,645 Key: Assumption A. Assumption B. Assumption C. Assumption D. Assumption E. Av. cut/yr. Av. cut/yr. Av. cut/yr. Av. cut/yr. Av. cut/yr. 13140 Ccf; Total volume i s harvested. 13140 Ccf; 5 years between passes; firebreaks etc. not harvested. 13140 Ccf; 10 years between passes; firebreaks etc. not harvested. 13140 Ccf; 5 years between passes; total volume is harvested. 13140 Ccf; 10 years between passes; total volume i s harvested. 95 In order to determine f o r how long t h i s a d d i t i o n a l cost w i l l be incurred, some assumptions had to be made as to the size (and dura- tion) of the future harvest i n the Chilliwack. The 1962-3 Inventory Report for the Chilliwack P.W.C. (B.C.F.S., 1968), indicated a mature volume of about 4 MM cunits. I f i t can be assumed that the annual cut was approximately 80,000 cunits between the time of the l a s t inventory and the year of introduction of the Coast Logging Guide- l i n e s , then the t o t a l mature volume remaining at the end of 1972 would have been 3.2 MM cunits. Two years of harvest under the guide- l i n e s represent a removal of 160,000 cunits of timber from an area twice as large as i t would have been p r i o r to the guidelines ( i . e . as a r e s u l t of patch logging). Therefore, the 160,000 cunits i n uncut patches are unavailable f o r harvesting u n t i l the end of the chosen leave period. This leaves 2.88 MM cunits for harvesting on an alternate cut and leave b a s i s , at the s t a r t of 1975. Assuming that 30% of t h i s timber w i l l be deferred and/or regarded as p h y s i c a l l y i n a c c e s s i b l e f o r future harvesting, i t w i l l take approximately 12 years to complete the f i r s t logging pass. I f t h i s figure i s greater than the average leave period for a l l s i t e s , then, there may be continuity of supply f o r at le a s t 24 years (ignoring any u t i l i z a t i o n improvements or maturation of previously immature timber i n the mean- time). The a d d i t i o n a l yearly harvesting costs due to guidelines w i l l be incurred throught t h i s 24 year period. A rough estimate of the present value of these future costs was obtained by assuming that the $1,423 MM figu r e represented a constant cost annuity over the 24 year period. Discounted at a 6 per cent rate of i n t e r e s t , the present value was found to be approximately $17 MM. 4.2 Evaluation of intangible costs and b e n e f i t s . 4.21 Introduction The evaluation of intangible costs and b e n e f i t s ( i n the sense that they are produced and d i s t r i b u t e d i n the absence of a market mechanism) has made s i g n i f i c a n t headway i n recent years, e s p e c i a l l y i n the f i e l d of recreation. Coomber and Biswas (1973) provided an excellent up to date review of a number of monetary and non-monetary methods of evaluating environmental i n t a n g i b l e s . In general, i t appears that concern i s i n c r e a s i n g l y focusing on the hard core of relevant issues concerning intangible costs and b e n e f i t s and how we can go about making some useful estimates. Meaningful analyses have frequently been hindered i n the past by a lack of information concerning non-market values. Equally important i s an i n t u i t i v e f e e l i n g by many people that somehow the value of say hunting and f i s h i n g i s p r i c e l e s s or i s something that cannot be q u a n t i f i e d , and indeed should not be q u a n t i f i e d . However, i t i s obvious that no goods or services are p r i c e l e s s i n the sense of an i n f i n i t e p r i c e , and, furthermore, that there i s a d e f i n i t e i n d i v i d u a l and c o l l e c t i v e l i m i t to how much we w i l l give up to enjoy the services of any out- door recreation f a c i l i t y or to preserve some scenic value. Further- more, economics can take account of values of an aesthetic, deeply personal or even mystical nature (Knetsch and Davis, 1972). It appears that the two types of logging guidelines being i n - vestigated have a number of intangible costs and benefits which are p a r t i c u l a r l y d i f f i c u l t to assess. Not only have the e f f e c t s of the guidelines on the multiple resource to be determined over time, but also t h e i r a d d i t i o n a l value to society i n terms of improved f i s h i n g and hunting benefits and so on. Only with t h i s type of information available can a meaningful comparison be made with the f o r e s t r y costs and benefits already calculated. 4.21 Significance of Available Data. The majority of a v a i l a b l e data f o r resources other than f o r e s t r y have been quoted i n the section describing the Chilliwack P r o v i n c i a l Forest. These data are not very h e l p f u l i n assessing the absolute value of other resources, l e t along any ad- d i t i o n a l value derived from the guidelines. An in-depth review of forest research on environmental impacts and protection outside B.C may have revealed some useful r e l a t i o n s h i p s , which might have been quantified and rel a t e d to the Chilliwack P r o v i n c i a l Forest. The sheer magnitude of such an undertaking and doubtful a p p l i c a b i l i t y to the conditions i n Coastal B.C. prevented the author from taking t h i s approach. It was also not clear as to whether or not such an analysis could be confined to the boundaries of the Chilliwack Pro- v i n c i a l Forest. Logging impacts on other resources i n a l i m i t e d area may r e s u l t i n a mere r e d i s t r i b u t i o n of other resource users to pos- s i b l y u n d e r u t i l i z e d f a c i l i t i e s of comparable q u a l i t y elsewhere. On t h i s basis i t may be more v a l i d to study regional or P r o v i n c i a l impacts rather than be confined to a s p e c i f i c area. I f the objec- t i v e i s to maximize the economic rent derived from a l l resources, i t becomes very d i f f i c u l t when the forest resource i s managed within the a r b i t r a r y l i m i t s of a P.S.Y.U. boundary. There can be l i t t l e doubt however, that the Chilliwack River v a l l e y possesses many unique q u a l i t i e s and there would c e r t a i n l y be a considerable l o s s i n 'primary b e n e f i t s ' (Pearse, 1971) i f consumers were obliged to transfer t h e i r a c t i v i t i e s elsewhere due to serious logging impacts. In summary, i t appears that a quantitative analysis of in t a n g i b l e costs and bene- f i t s i s not j u s t i f i e d i n t h i s study p r i m a r i l y because of a lack of data. 4.22 Methodology of evaluation. On the basis of the above discussion, i t was decided to undertake a b r i e f q u a l i t a t i v e analysis of the more im- portant intangible aspects of the guidelines. It was not the author's in t e n t i o n to engage i n an intensive s c i e n t i f i c review, but to out- l i n e some improtant issues which have frequently been ignored by ad- vocates of the guidelines and which must be considered when costs and benefits are compared. The reader i s directed to a useful summary of the a v a i l a b l e l i t e r a t u r e relevant to B.C. concerning the influences of harvesting and post-harvest p r a c t i c e s upon the forest environment and resources ( B e l l e_t a l . , 1974). This reference provides a review of impacts and should be referred to for more d e t a i l e d background information. 4.23 Impact on Local Employment. The impact of both sets of guidelines on l o c a l employment i n the Chilliwack area i s l i k e l y to be minimal. Section 2.42 showed that between 1970 and 1972, between 183 and 273 persons could be d i r e c t l y connected to the l o c a l annual timber harvest. This represents a small proportion of the t o t a l labour force. As discussed i n Section 3.6, the guidelines may have the e f f e c t of draw- ing away l o c a l primary and secondary wood processing f a c i l i t i e s a l o t e a r l i e r than before. I n s t a b i l i t y may r e s u l t i n n o n - d i v e r s i f i e d communities which are heavily dependent on the l o c a l timber proces- sing industry for employment. In contrast, those l e s s dependent and more orientated to other sectors of the economy (e.g..service .and̂ .. trade), may stand to benefit from increased employment i n recreation a c t i v i t i e s , and say f i s h e r i e s management. However, i t i s not c e r t a i n that the guidelines could bring about such a dramatic change i n r e - creation, f i s h i n g and hunting benefits to accomodate l o s t employ- ment even injjpopular areas l i k e the Chilliwack. The e f f e c t of r e - moving Environmental Protection Forest from allowable annual cut c a l c u l a t i o n s would reduce harvesting quotas, and could lead to an absolute decline i n the number of people employed i n the forest i n - dustry. It should be remembered that any timber shortages r e s u l t i n g from t h i s p o l i c y may i n fact be compensated for by improving u t i l i - zation standards which, i n turn, may imply increased employment. 4.24 Impacts on Recreation and Aesthetics. The 1972 Coast Logging Guidelines make p r o v i s - ions for an increasing recognition and enhancement of r e c r e a t i o n a l values. In several instances these appear to be confusing and i l l - defined, and c e r t a i n l y c o n f l i c t with some recreation a c t i v i t i e s . The more extensive basis of harvesting may mean that v i s u a l logging impacts are increased. This means that forest engineers must devote more time to the process of planning during the reconnaissance phase of road construction, i n order to reduce t h i s p o s s i b i l i t y . Adamovich (1971) provided some useful suggestions as to how v i s u a l impacts could be reduced. Aside from roads however, the 'giant checker-board image of a patch cutt i n g system also c o n s t i t u t e s i a s i g n i f i c a n t v i s u a l impact (although i t i s recognized that beauty i s i n the eye of the beholder). No matter how well roads are constructed i n mountainous t e r r a i n there i s s t i l l a great likelihoo'd'°f s l i d e s and washouts, although t h e i r frequency may be reduced. Assuming that i t i s too expensive to maintain a l l roads (main, branch and spur) and that only those for f i r e access w i l l be maintained between passes, the v i s u a l impacts of erosion are now d i s t r i b u t e d over a much greater developed area. The benefits of c u t t i n g on a more extensive basis mainly accrue to road-oriented a c t i v i t i e s , assuming of course, that f i r e access roads are constructed and maintained to s u f f i c i e n t l y high standards.for public v e h i c l e s . Wilderness enthusiasts who are concerned with the maintenance of a forestenvironment i n i t s p r i s t i n e state for as long as p o s s i b l e , are l i k e l y to s u f f e r a considerable d i s b e n e f i t although i t should be remembered that they represent a minority group. In general, because more forest lands are developed under the guide- l i n e s , r e c r e a t i o n a l use of these same lands w i l l increase. The v i - sual environment i s often regarded as an important component of the t o t a l s a t i s f a c t i o n derived from s p e c i a l i z e d a c t i v i t i e s such as hunt- ing and f i s h i n g , and i n the near perspective an alternate patch cut- t i n g system may be more pleasing that t o t a l c l e a r c u t t i n g . However, these a d d i t i o n a l benefits w i l l only be important when roads are s a t i s f a c t o r i l y constructed and r e g u l a r l y maintained for the benefit of road orientated r e c r e a t i o n i s t s . 4.25 Impact on W i l d l i f e . The provisions made i n the 1972 Coast Logging Guidelines for enhancing w i l d l i f e values include r e s t r i c t i n g c l e a r - cut s i z e and defer r i n g areas of timber d e l i n i a t e d as ' c r i t i c a l winter range' or Iwildlife migratory c o r r i d o r s ' . Adequate winter range appears to be very important for the maintenance of deer populations where snowfall i s the major regulatory factor governing habitat s e l e c - t i o n . Although i t i s d i f f i c u l t to define the dominant v a r i a b l e de- f i n i n g suitable winter range, i t appears that mature timber having a crown closure greater than 65 per cent with arboreal lichens ( A l e c t o r i a spp.) i s important (Jones, 1974; Eastman, 1974). Wild- l i f e migratory corridors are e s s e n t i a l for the u n r e s t r i c t e d passage of animals between summer and winter ranges. Provided that r i s k of windblow i s minimal i n these areas, such measures could c o n t r i - bute s i g n i f i c a n t l y to the maintenance of e x i s t i n g deer populations. A possible increase i n the number of deer may r e s u l t from the a l t e r - nate patch cut harvesting p o l i c y under the 1972 Coast Logging Guide- l i n e s . Where w i l d l i f e values are considered to be important, the guidelines suggest that the s i z e , shape and o r i e n t a t i o n of cleareut openings w i l l be adjusted to meet t h e i r requirements. These p r o v i - sions increase the forest edge e f f e c t , and make more of the cleareut areas a v a i l a b l e for browsing than before. However, where w i l d l i f e values are regarded as being s i g n i f i c a n t , i t i s not c l e a r that an alternate patch logging system i s the most s u i t a b l e . Ideal condi- tions f or deer populations include a diverse age class structure of mature, immature and cut-over blocks, with the l a t t e r being o r i e n t a - ted along contours and l o c a l topography. Immature stands adjacent to cleareut areas should be s u f f i c i e n t l y w ell developed to provide cover for these animals. The 1972 Coast Logging Guidelines however imply, i n p r a c t i c a l terms, square cutt i n g blocks and the removal of alternate patches a f t e r say 10 to 15 years, r e s u l t i n g i n two p r i n c i - p a l age classes. Furthermore, long and narrow clearcuts extending along contours at high elevation w i l l be very d i f f i c u l t to regener- ate n a t u r a l l y , because the f u l l p o t e n t i a l of v a l l e y winds for seed d i s p e r s a l i s l o s t . The objective of obtaining rapid regeneration by a r t i f i c i a l and natural means also c o n f l i c t s with improved forage production. The fundamental problem l i e s i n the attempt to manage w i l d l i f e values on an extensive basis with inadequate information and regardless of land-use p r i o r i t i e s . A more meaningful approach would be to define s p e c i f i c l o c a l i t i e s where w i l d l i f e values are important, and to manage these more e f f e c t i v e l y by intensive methods. To attempt to maintain an even d i s t r i b u t i o n of w i l d l i f e over developed areas regardless of t h e i r r e l a t i v e w i l d l i f e value i s not a correct i n t e r - p retation of multiple use management and can only lead to a suboptimal s o l u t i o n . 4.26 Impact on F i s h and Water Quality. Forest harvesting methods used i n the past have frequently resulted i n the removal of forest cover i n a manner that exposes streams to d i r e c t solar r a d i a t i o n , and causes increases i n stream temperature. Careless road and bridge construction p r a c t i c e s have resulted i n undue erosion and sedimentation. Undoubtedly t h i s has had an adverse e f f e c t on f i s h populations and water q u a l i t y . The alternate patch cutt i n g system advocated by the 1972 Coast Logging Guidelines i s by no means an i d e a l s o l u t i o n to these problems. T o t a l water y i e l d w i l l be decreased because more timber i s l e f t unharvested i n a given area which r e s u l t s i n increased t r a n s p i r a t i o n losses. By reducing cleareut s i z e , the melt period i s extended and so e a r l y peak flows may be reduced and low stream flows increased during dry summer months. Under normal cleareut harvesting procedures the primary source of sediment i s from timber access roads rather from logging disturbance. The alternate patch cutting p o l i c y does not proportionately reduce the number of roads required to harvest a given volume of timber. Archer et_ a l . (1972) stated that between 80 and 90 per cent of t o t a l stream sedimentation originated from natural erosion processes. On t h i s basis i t would appear that the advocated timber cutt i n g system would have very l i t t l e b e n e f i c i a l impact, and may even increase the number and d i s t r i b u t i o n of streams af f e c t e d by 103 sedimentation problems. Frederiksen (1970) found that patch-cut logging with forest roads, i n steep unstable headwater drainages, increased sedimentation com- pared with a control by more than 100 times over a 9-year period. In an adjacent clearcut watershed with no roads, and using a skyline as apposed to a conventional high-lead system, sedimentation increased three times that of the c o n t r o l . Frederiksen stated that l a n d s l i d e s associated with forest roads moved the l a r g e s t volume of s o i l , and that they occurred most often where roads intersected stream channels. Total c l e a r c u t t i n g with skyline yarding was found to have a much smal- l e r influence on the occurrence of l a n d s l i d e s . This study suggests that we can expect a minimal d e t e r i o r a t i o n i n water q u a l i t y a r i s i n g from sedimentation, where distrubance from road construction i s mini- mized by reduction of midslope road mileage through the use of s p e c i a l l y designed yarding systems. A patch c u t t i n g system and the use of con- ventional high-lead equipment i n Coastal B.C. i s not an i d e a l s o l u t i o n to the problem. More attention should be given to making skyline systems operationally f e a s i b l e , i n order to reduce the p r i n c i p l e cause of sedimentation, i . e . access roads on steep mid-slopes. The preservation of a s p e c i f i e d width of timbered green-strip adjacent to streams also o f f e r s a deceptively simple s o l u t i o n to the stream protection problem, and a number of setbacks are ap- parent. F i r s t l y , 'What i s a stream, that i s worth protecting?' There are countless r i v e r s , streams and freshets flowing through forested land i n Coastal B.C., and imposing a reserve on a l l streams would remove a major part of forests from timber production. Secondly, the a d d i t i o n a l edge-effect increases r i s k of blowdown, and t h i s p h y s i c a l disturbance i n addition to salvage operations may be more detrimental to f i s h habitat and water q u a l i t y than i f these trees were removed i n the f i r s t place. In conclusion i t may be said that the f u l l b e nefits of the guidelines for stream and water q u a l i t y protection cannot be r e a l - ized u n t i l there i s a more comprehensive inventory of streams i n terms of t h e i r habitat c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s , f i s h populations and r e l a - t i v e value. An alternate patch c u t t i n g system combined with f i l t e r s t r i p along streams i s a very expensive undertaking, with doubtful o v e r a l l b e n e f i t s . It i s e s s e n t i a l that t h e i r effectiveness be con- firmed before they are undertaken. 4.27 Impacts on Site P r o d u c t i v i t y . Concern has been expressed as to the renewabil- i t y of high elevation forests i n Coastal B.C., which are being man- aged on a sustained y i e l d basis (Kimmins, 1972; 1974a). To date, the t o t a l area harvested i n the Mountain Hemlock Zone has been re- l a t i v e l y small, and most of the so-called 'high elevation logging' has taken place i n the wet subzone of the Coastal Western Hemlock Zone, between the elevation of 2000 and 3500 feet . The Severe Site Guidelines r e f l e c t a desire to reduce undesirable logging impacts such as erosion which r e s u l t s i n a loss of t o p s o i l , a suspected loss i n s i t e p r o d u c t i v i t y , and sediment i n streamflow which may adversely a f f e c t f i s h populations and water q u a l i t y . A reduction i n future s i t e p r o d u c t i v i t y may appear to have immplications concerning a reduction i n the future l e v e l of sustained y i e l d , although increased volumes due to more intensive forest management and improved timber u t i l i - zation must also be considered. The o v e r a l l objective of management proposed by the Severe Site Guidelines was to 'protect' or 'sustain' p r o d u c t i v i t y l e v e l s f or d i f f i c u l t s i t e s . The c r i t e r i o n selected was to keep undesirable logging impacts to a s a t i s f a c t o r y l e v e l on those s i t e s where a s a t i s f a c t o r y regeneration plan had been prepared. Sites which did not s a t i s f y t h i s requirement were to be l e f t as Environmental Protection Forests. Both objective and c r i t e r i o n appear to be s a t i s f a c t o r y per se, but are l i a b l e to be misinterpre- tatedsin the following way. F i r s t l y the d i f f e r e n c e i n perspective between high and low elevation s i t e s has yet to be recognized, and c r i t e r i a should be established which show an appreciation for high elevation conditions. At the moment there i s a tendancy to take management c r i t e r i a s uitable f o r low elevation s i t e s and apply them to high elevation conditions. For example, fo r e s t e r s tend to get distraught when there i s r e l a t i v e l y l i t t l e natural regeneration a f t e r c l e a r c u t t i n g , or that a r t i f i c i a l regeneration has not shown s u f f i c i e n t promise a f t e r 4 or 5 years. It must be r e a l i z e d that i t may take appreciably longer for regeneration to reach breast height under natural conditions, for example up to 25 years or longer on 'low' or 'severe' s i t e s . Before drawing conclusions about possible losses i n s i t e p r o d u c t i v i t y , a r e a l i s t i c regeneration l a g factor should be incorporated into the Hanzlik formula. There i s also concern that future s i t e p r o d u c t i v i t y w i l l be reduced because a s i g n i f i c a n t pro- portion of the t o t a l a v a i l a b l e nutrients may be removed when the tree biomass i s harvested (Kimmins, 1974c). The i m p l i c i t assumption here, i s that exactly the same s i t e p r o d u c t i v i t y , r e f l e c t e d i n the size and d i s t r i b u t i o n of harvestable volumes, i s as important i n the future as i t i s at present. Such an argument i s debatable and takes no account of changes i n technology,relative prices or the costs of preventing i n i t i a l s i t e degradation i n r e l a t i o n to the b e n e f i t s . The present net worth of any losses i n the future i s very small, and might e a s i l y be compensated f o r by improved s i t e p r o d u c t i v i t y and better timber u t i l i z a t i o n on good s i t e s at low elevation. However, there i s no conclusive evidence to support or r e j e c t the theory that an i n i t i a l loss of nutrients can be adequately compensated f o r by nutrient accumulation over a 90 or 100 year r o t a t i o n . Although the Severe Site Guidelines advocate the d e l e t i o n of Environmental Pro- t e c t i o n Forest from the allowable cut c a l c u l a t i ons, the basic a l t e r - nate patch c u t t i n g p o l i c y s t i l l means that logging operations w i l l proceed to the more ' d i f f i c u l t ' s i t e s a l o t f a s t e r than before. A progressive c l e a r c u t t i n g p o l i c y would have meant that these s i t e s could be harvested farther i n the future. The r e l a t i v e p r i c e of wood may then be s u f f i c i e n t l y high not only to cover the higher har- vesting costs i n d i f f i c u l t t e r r a i n , but also be s u f f i c i e n t to accomo- date any environmental protection costs as are deemed necessary. Under the guidelines, the people of B.C. are forced to bear these a d d i t i o n a l costs a l o t sooner. 4.28 Impacts on Forest Protection. The Severe Site Guidelines o u t l i n e the necessity of reducing the use of slashburning on e c o l o g i c a l l y s e n s i t i v e s i t e s with steep slopes and shallow s o i l s commonly found i n high elevations i n Coastal B.C. For many years, slashburning has been considered as a very useful t o o l f or f i r e protection and s i l v i c u l t u r a l purposes. At low elevations, i t has been used with considerable success to maintain desirable s e r a i stages (e.g. Douglas-fir stands), to improve access, to favour desirable regeneration as well as i n reducing f i r e hazard (Kimmins, 1973). Kimmins stressed that external costs of slashburning should also be considered, such as damage to streams, damage to f i s h , l o s s of future p r o d u c t i v i t y due to l o s s of nutrients as w e l l as d i r e c t costs of escaped slashburns. These impacts appear to increase i n more ' d i f f i c u l t ' t e r r a i n , and the guidelines i m p l i c i t l y assume that these e x t e r n a l i t i e s outweigh the benefits of slashburn- ing to such an extent that i t i s no longer j u s t i f i e d . This assumes that a l t e r n a t i v e methods of abatement or prevention are a v a i l a b l e i n high r i s k e c o l o g i c a l l y s e n s i t i v e s i t e s - which i s frequently not the case. Smith and G i l b e r t (1974) analysed rates of spread and f i r e damage to f o r e s t cover types i n B.C. They showed that although only 0.016 and 0.039 per cent of 'HB' and 'HC' (Growth Type No. 7) stands are burned annually i n the Vancouver Forest D i s t r i c t , problems of higher rates of spread from discovery to i n i t i a l attack and control are accentuated i n the higher elevations. The highest rate of spread from discovery to i n i t i a l attack was found to be 8.4 acres per hour i n the 2000 to 2999 foot elevation c l a s s . The highest c o n t r o l i d i f f i - c u l t y has been experienced i n the 4000 to 4999 foot elevation c l a s s , where spread averaged 12.8 acres per hour from discovery to c o n t r o l S i g n i f i c a n t increases i n c o n t r o l d i f f i c u l t y were d i r e c t l y r e l a t e d to increasing slopes. The magnitude of these figures suggest that before slashburning i s stopped i n high elevation areas, adequate attention i s given to a l t e r n a t i v e methods of hazard abatement. The Forest Service i s obligated under the Forest Act to reduce f i r e hazard as much as p o s s i b l e , and adoption of the recommendations i n the Severe Site Guidelines without v i a b l e a l t e r n a t i v e s would be a c l e a r contravention of that Act. 5.0 DISTRIBUTION OF COSTS AND BENEFITS. In the previous sections an attempt was made to o u t l i n e the economic, s o c i a l and environmental implications of the logging guidelines. E f f e c t i v e d e c i s i o n making however, requires that the problem of equity i s also taken into account. This means, how the costs and benefits of logging guidelines are d i s t r i b u t e d throughout society. Before discussing any equity i m p l i c a t i o n , the costs and benefits must be c l a s s i f i e d on a common d e f i n i t i o n a l and conceptual ba s i s . The P o l i c y , Planning and Evaluation Directorate of Environ- ment Canada (1974) has recently developed such a c l a s s i f i c a t i o n sys- tem for environmental costs on the basis of work by Dales (1968) and E.P.A. (1972a; 1972b). An attempt w i l l be made to c l a s s i f y the cost of logging guidelines on the basis of t h e i r system. Environmental costs were considered to be of two general types: p o l l u t i o n c o n t r o l costs and p o l l u t i o n costs. ( P o l l u t i o n was defined i n the broad sense of a i r , water and s o l i d wastes, but noise p o l l u t i o n and aesthe- t i c degradation were also included.) P o l l u t i o n control costs referred to the amount of money spent by public or private p a r t i e s to prevent some of the damaging or noxious e f f e c t s of wastes. This may be con- sidered to represent the t o t a l cost of preventing erosion, sedimenta- t i o n , aesthetic degradation and impacts of logging on f i s h , w i l d l i f e and recreation and so on. ' P o l l u t i o n costs'on the other hand are the money value of the damages caused by wastes a f t e r they are released into the environment. For example, they may represent the socio- economic cost to society of the e f f e c t s of progressive cleareut logging without guidelines. Included are 'damage avoidance costs' which prevent the harm that p o l l u t i o n causes (e.g. t r e a t i n g municipal water supplies to reduce high sediment content), and 'damage costs' r e s u l t - ing from p o l l u t i o n damage that i s not prevented (e.g. loss of spawn- ing beds, loss i n s i t e p r o d u c t i v i t y e t c . ) . These costs are i l l u s - trated i n Figure 11. For the purpose of t h i s discussion, only p o l l u t i o n control costs (or the f i n a n c i a l cost of logging guidelines) w i l l be examined i n more d e t a i l . Environment Canada (1974) stated that these may be subdivided into three main categories: catch-up costs, expenditures and annuals ized costs. 'Catch-up costs' r e f e r to the a d d i t i o n a l costs which are necessary to meet present environmental (guideline) standards. 'Expenditures' include' catch-up costs and the costs which are already being incurred. They are necessary to assess the short run economic impacts of c l o s i n g the gap between the required or desired l e v e l of environmental protection and the actual l e v e l . Once t h i s gap has been closed, then expenditures w i l l tend to approximate 'annualized costs' which are the actual accrued costs for a one year period. Previous c a l c u l a t i o n s of the cost per cunit increase due to guide- l i n e s have resulted i n an estimate of the annualized cost for the Chilliwack P r o v i n c i a l Forest i . e . $1^423 MM. Because of the varying i n t e r p r e t a t i o n s of the guidelines, i t i s l i k e l y that there w i l l be catch-up costs of varying degrees throughout Coastal B.C. The d i f - ferences i n cost between Assumptions B, C and D when compared to Assumption E i n Tables XII to XV may be considered as estimates of catch-up costs i f Assumption E w i l l lead to the desired l e v e l of environmental protection. A l l three categories of cost were divided into 'public sector costs' and ' i n d u s t r i a l sector costs' with 'public' meaning government plus p r i v a t e i n d i v i d u a l s , and ' i n d u s t r i a l ' /.referr- ing to business firms (Figure 12). This cost subdivision i s extremely important when discussing the f i n a n c i a l impacts of logging guidelines, Figure 11 TYPES OF ENVIRONMENT COSTS ENVIRONMENTAL COSTS POLLUTION CONTROL COSTS ( p o l l u t i o n prevention) POLLUTION COSTS DAMAGE AVOIDANCE COSTS DAMAGE COSTS (welfare damages) Figure 12 POLLUTION CONTROL COST COMPONENTS POLLUTION CONTROL COSTS EXPENDITURES ANNUALIZED- COSTS PUBLIC INDUST. PUBLIC INDUST. CATCH-UP COSTS PUBLIC INDUST. and raised the problem of income d i s t r i b u t i o n and equity. The cur- rent stumpage appraisal procedure i s designed to e s t a b l i s h a net value of a t r a c t of timber to be harvested by subtracting from the estimated value of the products that can be removed, the costs that are necessary to r e a l i z e these values, including a return to the operator. In other words a stumpage p r i c e represents the r e s i d u a l value of standing timber. If Government p o l i c y requires that the operator^meets a d d i t i o n a l logging standards, then t h i s should be r e f l e c t e d i n a reduction i n the stumpage p r i c e he has to pay for the timber and not a reduction i n the allowed p r o f i t margin. Any reduc- t i o n i n Government revenue would ne c e s s a r i l y have to be compensated for by increased taxation of private i n d i v i d u a l s . It i s not c l e a r however that society as a whole should have to pay for increased environmental protection standards. A more equitable s o l u t i o n would be to increase the cost of hunting and f i s h i n g licences and perhaps charge entrance fees for r e c r e a t i o n i s t s . A f t e r a l l , i t i s these people which presumably wanted more environmental protection to pro- tect t h e i r own i n t e r e s t s i n the f i r s t place. The desires of s p e c i a l i n t e r e s t groups should not be r e f l e c t e d i n a burden upon society as a whole, or for that matter on logging operators who are improperly assessed for stumpage. Comments made by private industry (see Section 3.5) suggest that current stumpage appraisal c a l c u l a t i o n s have not taken f u l l account of the a d d i t i o n a l costs of logging guide- l i n e s , and every e f f o r t must be made to remedy t h i s s i t u a t i o n i n the future. One important cost which has so f a r been ommitted from the discussion, i s what the U.S. Council on Environmental Quality has termed 'transaction costs' (Environment Canada, 1974). Trans- action costs are the costs of research, development, planning, moni- t o r i n g , and enforcement needed to achieve environmental goals and standards. Part of the Canada Department of Environment's budget and that of the P r o v i n c i a l Government agencies connected with admini- s t e r i n g the guidelines would comprise the bulk of t h i s cost. These costs are l i k e l y to increase a great deal i n the future as a r e s u l t of the more extensive nature of logging under an alternate patch cutt i n g system. 6.0 FINAL DISCUSSION, CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS The previous analyses and discussion have attempted to o u t l i n e some of the more important issues associated with the 1972 Coast Logging Guidelines and the Severe S i t e Guidelines. In econo- mic terms i t was shown that the alternate patch c u t t i n g philosophy common to both sets of guidelines was a major factor contributing to increased logging costs and an o v e r a l l decline of up to 60% of the p o t e n t i a l economic rent per developed acre. The s i z e of the increase i n logging costs per cunit was found to be very s e n s i t i v e to i n t e r e s t rates and the length of the leave period between consecutive harvest- ing passes. It was estimated that the a p p l i c a t i o n of logging guide- l i n e s to harvesting operations i n the Chilliwack P r o v i n c i a l Forest would r e s u l t i n an extra annual cost of at least $1,423 MM over the next 24 years. Furthermore i t appeared that i f a l l of the guideline recommendations were f u l l y implemented, the si z e of the extra cost would mean that Coastal B.C. forests would no longer represent a revenue producing resource. Although the nature and s i g n i f i c a n c e of future timber d e f e r r a l s and u t i l i z a t i o n improvements i s uncertain, the alternate patch cut- t i n g system with long leave periods suggested that l o c a l timber sup- ply shortages may develop i n the near future. This would have s i g - n i f i c a n t impact on small u n d i v e r s i f i e d communities highly dependant on the l o c a l timber processing i n d u s t r i e s for employment. In t h i s regard the guidelines may contradict one of the sustained y i e l d ob- j e c t i v e s of community s t a b i l i t y . The logging industry was found to be fourth i n importance i n the Chilliwack area, and no major im- pacts on future employment may be expected i n t h i s case. Although the guidelines were intended to reduce environmental impact, the previous discussions would seem to i n d i c a t e that prob- lems of erosion, sedimentation and aesthetic impact may even be in^-. creased o v e r a l l , because of the more extensive basis for development. Windblow problems are also l i k e l y to be more s i g n i f i c a n t . The si z e of increased r e c r e a t i o n a l benefits r e a l i z e d from the guideline recommendations was considered to be very dependent on whether or not access roads are maintained to a s u f f i c i e n t l y high standard f o r public access. In general, i t may be said that some form of logging guidelines was long overdue, and that these documents represent a good ' f i r s t approximation' so l u t i o n to the problem. However, i t i s imperative that they be constantly reviewed and updated i n the l i g h t of chang- ing socio-economic circumstances and r e s u l t s of research. Recent concerns expressed by Government agencies, private industry and uni- v e r s i t y suggest some guideline r e v i s i o n s w i l l be necessary i n the near future. Although economic analyses have shown the serious f i - nancial implications of the guidelines i n t h e i r present form, t h i s au should not be interpreted as meaning that more environmental impacts are necessary to keep the logging industry i n business. On the con- tr a r y , i t may merely mean that the guidelines as presently i n t e r - preted are an i n e f f i c i e n t means with which to obtain multiple use objectives. It i s the opinion of the author that more attention has to be devoted to the problem of land-use planning and the e s t a b l i s h - ment of land-use p r i o r i t i e s . In t h i s way funds can be more s p e c i f i - c a l l y directed to achieving c l e a r l y stated objectives i n an e f f i c i e n t manner. The present system of protecting a l l resource values on an extensive basis w i l l i n e v i t a b l y lead to unresolvable c o n f l i c t s . Although the 1972 Coast Logging Guidelines were o r i g i n a l l y i n - tended to be f l e x i b l e , the most important aspect - the alternate patch cutting system - has been applied to a l l development areas. I f continued, t h i s basic p o l i c y may have profound economic, s o c i a l and environmental consequences. Serious consideration should be given to the p o s s i b i l i t y of more c a r e f u l progressive cleareut l o g - ging. The money saved i n i n t e r e s t charges from road development under the e x i s t i n g guidelines would adequately pay for measures such as streambank r e f o r e s t a t i o n with hardwoods, c a r e f u l road con- s t r u c t i o n and maintenance, and rapid r e f o r e s t a t i o n of cleareut areas. On the other hand, more sophisticated s i l v i c u l t u r a l systems could be applied to areas where say w i l d l i f e and f i s h e r i e s values are of p a r t i c u l a r importance. In terms of high elevation f o r e s t s , i t may be useful to d e l i n - i a t e temporary Environmental Protection Forest boundaries which r e - present the l i m i t of economically accessible timber. Normal logging costs together with the estimated cost of environmental p r o t e c t i o n measures required would have to be included i n the a n a l y s i s . This boundary would represent the l e v e l to which timber can be s a t i s f a c - t o r i l y harvested from both an economic and e c o l o g i c a l point of view at a given point i n time. This implies that the l i m i t s may change depending on:'future p r i c e increases, technological improvements and environmental concern. It would therefore be inc o r r e c t to delete the t o t a l area of these forests from allowable annual cut c a l c u l a - t i o n s . Some reasonable allowance should be made for areas which are l i k e l y to be harvested i n the future. This p o l i c y would not require the vast amounts of extra roads required under the usual logging guidelines, and would c e r t a i n l y increase the returns to the Provin- c i a l Treasury because economically sub-marginal stands would no;longer 117 be harvested. In terms of future research needs, the efficiency by which guide- lines implement sustained yield objectives and the extent to which the aforementioned financial analyses apply outside of the Chilliwack Provin- c i a l Forest should be determined. In addition there i s a need to relate- the results for Paleface and Depot Creeks to the Dewdney P.S.Y.U. as a whole, using appropriate mathematical modelling approaches. Two major fields may also be worth investigating. F i r s t l y , the possibility of introducing logging systems which have much longer yarding distances should be studied because the most significant environmental impacts from harvesting in mountainous terrain are related to the access roads. The "Grabinski" conversion of conventional high lead systems has been used very successfully in Washington State by the Department of Natural Resources and yarding distances of up to 1500 feet are common. This compares with an average of 600 feet for operations on the Coast of B.C. The number of roads required could be considerably reduced using this system, and the cost saving would easily compensate any minor reductions in volume pro- duction. Secondly, serious attention should be given to the use of more intensive forest management techniques on good sites at low elevations. Yields per acre can be significantly improved by using higher yielding spec- ies, more effective i n i t i a l spacing, thinning and f e r t i l i z a t i o n . The improved volume production might provide an alternative to harvesting of high elevation forests u n t i l more can be learned about how^they can be managed by economically and ecologically sound methods. LITERATURE CITED Adamovich, L. 1971. 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The dissemination, germination and sur- v i v a l of seed on the west coast of Vancouver Island from \;?JLs Western hemlock and associated species. B.C. Forest Service Res. Note. 39. 22p., i l l u s . Johnston, D.R., Grayson, A.J., and R.T. Bradley. 1967. Forest Plan- ning. Faber and Faber Ltd., London, 541 p. Jones, G. 1974. Winter ecology of deer. Notes provided f o r a Forestry 395 l e c t u r e , Oct. 11, 1974. Univ. of B.C., Fac. For. Kimmins, J.P. 1972. The renewability of natural resources: implica- tions for forest management. J. Forest. 71: 290-292. 1973. The ecology of f o r e s t r y , Part I. In Extention course notes, Univ. of B.C., Fac. For. Forest Ecology. 1974a. Sustained y i e l d , timber mining, and the concept of e c o l o g i c a l r o t a t i o n ; a B r i t i s h Columbian view. Forest Chron. 50(1): 1974b. How to provide f o r environmental protection by re- gulation or use of the p r i c e system. Paper presented at the B.C. 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In E f f e c t s of forest harvesting on the p r o d u c t i v i t y of salmon and trout habitats i n the Chilliwack basin study area. Vroom, P.R. and W.E. Dunford., Directed Study, Planning 521. Univ. of B.C. Monger, J. 1974. Bedrock geology of the Chilliwack Forest. In Integrated use plan f o r the Chilliwack P r o v i n c i a l Forest: Part I Basic Resources. E.P. 714. B.C. Forest Service Research D i v i s i o n , V i c t o r i a , B.C. pp.2-6. Okonski, J . 1974. Paleface Creek: a case study from a f o r e s t en- gineering point of view. Directed Study, Planning 521. Univ. of B.C. 65p. Ottens, J . 1975. Environmental costs i n logging road design and construction. Environment Canada, Canadian Forestry Service, P a c i f i c Forest Research Centre, V i c t o r i a , B.C., Report BC-X-108, 26p. 122 Parker, J.T. 1975. F a l l i n g and bucking. In Minutes of the general meeting: Jan. 14, 1975. Canadian I n s t i t u t e of Forestry, Vancouver Section. 5p. Pearse, P.H. 1971. 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PLANNING GUIDELINES FOR COAST LOGGING OPERATIONS A, The general practice shall be to clear-cut to the close utilization standards, with the objective of creating even-aged stands on the sites harvested. Logging must be conducted in such a manner that fira hazard is reduced to an acceptable standard and the cutting area la satisfactorily prepared for the future crop. In addition to, cutting a l l species to a minimum diameter limit, falling of a l l trees ten feet and over in height, regardless of merchantability will normally be required. Of great concern is the matter of protection of water quality and the maintenance of a managed environment suitable for the preserva- tion, protection, and regulation of other users of the forest habitat. Ma&aurea must be taken to ensure that a l l protective forest cover i s not removed, but rather that sufficient trees or blocks of forest are left to meet the necessary requirements of the other users. Protective cover requirements will vary with wildlife species present and their habitat requirements, size of stream, type of bed, water-flow continuity, the present or potential value for fish and game, human consumption, and racreational use. Wildlife and fish habitats of significance must re- ceive special consideration. Normally, many different types of forest cover will be present over the greater percentage of any managed unit and thay must be recognized and deliberately incorporated into area plana. These include: (1) inaccessible trees which occur in steep rocky canyons and on steep bluffs; (2) tree growth occurring on unstable, erodible cutbanks- (3) leaning trees along water-courses and shorelines which cannot be removed without causing environmental damage; (A) fast-growing deciduous trees of suitable species, not subject to extra-site encroachment, planted along water- courses or shorelines either prior to logging or after slash burning; (5) primary timbered .leave strips for fire control and their replacements; 1 2 6 /2 (6) leave blocks which w i l l not be cue u n t i l adjacent blocks are reforested to the stage required to assure compatible integrated use; (7) f i l t e r s t r i p s between roads or openings and waterfront or stream banks, held temporarily'pending s t a b i l i z a t i o n of run-off within the developed area; (8) pre-established second-growth timber or s a t i s f a c t o r i l y renewed immature stands r e s u l t i n g from e a r l i e r c u t t i n g or from other causes such as f i r e s , and not forming part of present c u t t i n g areas. (9) forest cover i n parks or other ownerships not being cut over; (10) needed w i l d l i f e c o r r i d o r patches held pending r e - p o s i t i o n - ing i n t o renewed forests or a l t e r n a t i v e areas; (11) forest r e c r e a t i o n a l use development areas; (12) f o r e s t u t i l i z e d as ''surround" for unique f e a t u r e s ; (13) f o r e s t temporarily held i n pocket or s t r i p f o r r e c r e a t i o n areas, pending development and eventual r e - p o s i t i o n i n g i n t o a l t e r n a t i v e areas; (14) forest temporarily held on alternate "50 percent" cut program for watershed p r o t e c t i o n , held pending develop- ment of new forest on adjacent cut-over areas to the stage required to as-surc compatible Integra.ed use. (15) stream-face or shoreline blocks subject to s p e c i a l t r e a t - ment, stand improvement, or s p e c i a l c u t t i n g system. Forest land within a watershed w i l l be harvested under the m u l t i p l e use concept. Consistent with the incorporation of f o r e s t r e c r e a t i o n , game ha b i t a t , and watershed management in t o c u t t i n g plans designed to accommodate these and other resource uses, mature timber, extending to stream borders, may be harvested using such s p e c i a l measures as deemed necessary. These measures w i l l prevent stand decadence and ensure the renewal of forest growth along water courses w i t h i n a time sequence l o g i c a l to a managed forest environment. Only i n t h i s way can q u a l i t y stream maintenance, as w e l l as the needs of people, be provided for simultaneously. Examples of using s p e c i a l measures where necessary may include: approved forms of s e l e c t i v e c u t t i n g , /3 1 2 7 3/ cutting narrow strips or smaller patent's, meihani.al i't other powered methods of controlling the direction of tree f a l l , telling of trees from opposite banks and l i f t i n g clear to avoid environmental damage, etc. Such measures w i l l often involve precise t i n u n j of crit i c a L operations, such as road and bridge dc-ve]opm<MU, stream clearing or improvement and other forestry operations' that can best he done at certain times of the year, depending on the circumstances within the particular managed unit. B. The size, shape and orientation of clear-cut openings sha l l be based on an analysis of forest regeneration; logging economics, f i r e protection, fish and w i l a m e production, s o i l protection, aesthetic appeal, water quality maintenance, etc. In other words, u t i l i z a t i o n of a l l resources and compatible integrated use shall dictate the size, shape, and orientation of e^ch individual proposed opening. Normally, the openings should bt: '.opt as small as practicable and, as a basic guideline, the size of a clear-cut opening wilL not exceed 200 acres unless the aforementioned factors dictate otherwise. C. Logging in deferred areas, adjacent to the in; t i a l clear-cut openings, w i l l be considered when hi^ard has neen abated and restocking requirements are-met within the f l r j t oper.m^ and the maintenance of other resource values is assured. D. Clear-cutting w i l l be ';ased on an alternate: system of cut and leave patches. The location of the patches must be adjusted to meet the needs of other integrated uses. Also, ;in alternate patch system i s re- quired to reduce the potential for increased water temperature, sediment, and logging wastes that could reach pertnniai stroams cr lakes. The per- centage of the total stream lace or lake to be opened during any one phase of patch-logging w i l l depend on the sensitivity of the particular area to logging disturbances. As a guide, no more than 50 percent of a stream or lake face w i l l be onc-n̂ d during unt phase. At no time during the same phase w i l l two cue openings he permit ted to face each other across a perennial stream unless the maintenance. ot other resource values has been assured. E. A l l logging adjacent to streams, stream-beds, aiid lakes must be regulated so as to ensure there is no violation of stream protection requirements. Setting boundaries and yarding plana shall coincide with water-courses so that there is rio yardinj.; damage. The protection of water quality will normally require core and special measures in f a l l i n g , bucking, and yarding away f coin the s f e a i r . or lake, .aid cutting w i l l not corcmenca until the boundaries have been approved. /5 4 / F. Cutting within approved openings adjacent to streams or lakes when required w i l l be regulated so that a f i l t e r - s t r i p adjacent to the stream or lake w i l l be reserved u n t i l the last lagging sequence within the opening. To effect good stream-bank cleari-up, care and special measures w i l l be taken i n f a l l i n g , bucking, and yarding away from the stream or lake. G. Stands which would be uneconomic to treat w i l l be excluded from within approved cutting boundaries unless their inclusion i s necessary to the creation of the proper size, shape, and orientation of the treated site in i t s finished form. Similarly, certain stands or portions of stands which could be economically treated, but whose exclusion i s required by the proposed pattern of cutting, w i l l be ex- cluded from the approved cutting boundaries. H. Approval for further cutting in untouched stands w i l l only be given where acceptable logging plans and u t i l i z a t i o n standards pertain to the timber in question and to any adjacent stand3 of lower value which should be logged. Rehabilitation planning for older p a r t i a l l y logged or " o i r l y stocked old growth forest must be co-ordinated with the plans for logging the adjoining standing green timber or i t w i l l be necessary for the proposed new cutting to be deferred to some future date. I. A l l satisfactorily-stocked immature forests of manageable proportions surrounding or adjacent to mature merchantable timber w i l l be reserved and protected. J. A l l roads, (main roads, secondary roads, spur roads, and skid t r a i l s ) must be planned, located, designed, constructed, used and main- tained i n such a manner that their impact on the total managed unit w i l l be an acceptable minimum by:- (1) locating roads away from streams, narrow canyons, slide areas, and marshes ; (2) locating road3 on benches, ridge tops, and f l a t t e r slopes to minimize harmful disturbances and improve road s t a b i l i t y ; prescribing for each road those design specifications that are best adapted to given slopes, topography, and s o i l materials; (3) (4) disposing of the slash and debris concurrently with construction; /5 1 2 9 5/ (5) b u i l d i n g culverts large enough to handle a 25-year frequency storm. Aprons or troughs should be i n s t a l l e d where needed to carry runoff water over unstable f i l l s to the undisturbed s o i l below the c u i v e r t • (6) minimizing soil disturbance i n road construction by working only while soil moisture conditions are favourable (I.e. not too wet) (7) adopting regular maintenance programs which should include inspection and clearing of ditches and culverts as well as grading of roads; (8) constructing cross drains and water bars on skid t r a i l s , spur roads, and secondary roads to control and direct runoff which collects at the road, particularly away froa creeks; (9) revegetating cutbanks and f i l l slopes where necessary in some areas to prevent erosion. K. Operating plans and proposals are subject to approval prior to implementation and the Forest Service will consult with other resource rranagers to ensure that their input will assist in attaining the basic objective of maintaining an environment satisfactory and suitable to the needs of a l l British Columbians. L. These guidelines are considered to be an essential facet to an effective base for planning, resource allocation and management of operations and constitute the minimum requirements for forward planning. However, they must not be construed as being absolute. Particular forest units, special circumstances, or needed objectives and policies will also dictate the resultant planning and treatment required for development and cutting plans. .j / I. T. Cameron, ic.P.F. Chief F o r e s t e r . 130 INTERIM GUIDES - LCC-GING OIF SS7ERE SITES - VANCOUVER FOREST DISTRICT INTRODUCTION The Reuter Report (High elevation reforestation problems i n the Vancouver Forest D i s t r i c t ) has focussed considerable attention on present forest oractices. There i s l i t t l e doubt that regeneration success on severe si t e s i s freauently unsatisfactory. Efforts to'regenerate .for example, high-al- titude clear cuts have achieved only par t i a l success - olanting as a standard procedure involving limited species choice, snows progressively higher f a i l u r e rates with increased elevation. Current clear cutting methods and slash burning practices are generally not compatible with naturals reoperation, 'in.terms of size of opening and damage to advance regeneration during logging. For p r a c t i c a l purposes, most land over 2jS0GO feet elevation i s involved - nevertheless, f u l l recognition of the individuality of severe-site habitats i s needed. To maintain reasonable site productivity, by rinimizing erosion and encouraging regeneration, adjustments i n stand treatments and logging techniques are needed on any site where extremes of climatic, edachic and topographic features are encountered. Because of site v a r i a b i l i t y , s i l - v i c u l t u r a l treatment must be determined on the basis oi" a site - s p e c i f i c recommendation for a l l forest units under Management; Pre-logging examin- ation i s essential. Forests of limited productivity i n the Kountain Hemlock Zone, even i f marginally economic at th i s time, may be excluded from legging and held as environmental or protection forests. The productivity of these and other forest types, the application of research and the designation of s i l v i c u l t u r a l treatment may be arrived at by noting and using bedrock geology, s u r f i c i a l •deposits, habitat types and land fron to segregate management units. It i s apparent that information to f u l l y substantiate guidelines for logging extreme sites does not exist. Research must f i l l information gaps and provide knowledge for "guide modification, on a rational basis.. As a further adjunct to reforestation choice, research emphasis w i l l be given to nursery and plantation t r i a l s of high elevation species (yellow cedar, mountain hemlock and true f i r ) . I. Objective To sustain productivity levels of severe forest sites by adjusting present management practices and allowing greater f l e x i b i l i t y of s i l v i - cultural choice. Natural seeding and the u t i l i s a t i o n of good duality advance regeneration to restock logged areas is to be encouraged; reliance on plantations of one or two low-slope conifers should be reduced as well as the subsequent high costs attributable to plantation f a i l u r e . Exceptions to the clear cutting, opening size and s i t e protective constraints that follow w i l l be allowed i f the regeneration plan i s develooed from appropriate habitat mapping accompanied by r e a l i s t i c site specific interpretations. -2- 131 I I . Stand Treatment The management of high elevation stands reauires that as a pre- requisit to preparation of the regeneration plan the area be thoroughly examined before i t i s logged. In considering management alternatives for those areas with acceptable advance regeneration the objective should be to protect any existing advance regeneration that i s of a quality as defined.on Page h • Preservation of advanced regeneration requires proper planning, logging method adjustment and good timber u t i l i z a t i o n (hazard reduction). Often improvement i n residual stocking i s needed; f i l l - i n planting and the retention of adjacent seed sources for longer periods of time may be required. 1 ) Clear cutting Clearcutting should be confined to those forest habitats with the following characteristics: A. Relatively deep s o i l phases, ( i . e . clearcutting should be avoided on shallow soi l s with frequent bedrock outcrops). B. Well-drained to moderately well-drained s o i l s . C. Underlying bedrock types which are favourable i n terms of s t a b i l i t y . D. Stable geomorphic characteristics, especially slope angle. 2) Size of openings In many instances, the shape and size of cleareut openings must be modified and reduced from present maximas. Opening size should vary with presence or absence of advance regeneration. Where advance regeneration i s absent,openings should be kept small enough to provide for adeauate natural seeding when required. Unit upper and lower size limits w i l l vary between north and south facing aspects, slope, location and density of advanced regeneration, protection requirements (disease and f i r e hazards), wind resistance, environmental factors affecting germination and survival, economics, etc. Specifically, opening size must con- form to the following. A. The effective seed dispersal distance of the adjacent stand should be considered when designing opening size and shape. If the cleareut i s a square i t should not exceed liO acres i n size. I f the cleareut i s larger than hO acres the width of the cleareut should not ex- ceed 20 chains. (The U0-20 rule). B. No adjacent clearcuts to be logged u n t i l previous cleareut i s s a t i s f a c t o r i l y stocked, unless such, additional clear- cuts comply with liO-20 rule. i e . the operator can extend a 20 chain wide st r i p indefinitely as far as regeneration i s concerned. C. Where applicable, small blocks of timber may be employed as seed sources. They should be positioned f o r good seed dispersal and ease of harvest l a t e r . Mechanical s c a r i - f i c a t i o n may be employed to reduce hazards and prepare sites where suitable. Site Protection Continued site productivity and the protection of advanced regeneration depends on a well-designed logging plan. Logging equipment must be suited to the t e r r a i n . Due consideration must be given to design, location and construction of roads to minimize regeneration damage and s o i l disturbance. Logging a c t i v i t y , the use of tractors and other equipment must be controlled by adequate supervision. Specific constraints are: A. Slash burning should be d r a s t i c a l l y reduced. Sound s i l v i c u l t u r a l reasons w i l l be required before slash burning w i l l be approved. B. No tractor or skidder logging on slopes exceeding 30 per cent. On lesser slopes the surface drainage patterns must be re-established to pre-existing conditions after logging has been completed. . Economics The intemperate application of management p o l i c i e s designed to protect understories and encourage natural regeneration may have an adverse effect on wood production and economic return particularly where access i s d i f f i c u l t and operating seasons are short. On the other hand, few restrictions to high elevation s i l v i c u l t u r e and planning may increase, drastically, the costs of reforestation, reduce even further the marginal productivity of some sites and ultimately force a reduction i n allowable cuts. 133 - 4 - Y/here a prescribed treatment vn.ll lower log production below the economic threshhold, i t nay be necessary to withhold the harvest of these stands u n t i l more optimal conditions for logging and reforestation exist. I I I . Residual stands Many stands have an understory of advanced growth with po t e n t i a l reforestation value. Because of wide variation i n the quality and quantity of understory regeneration, a pre-and post-logging evaluation, of stocking i s required. Unfortunately, better information i s needed to correlate the physical appearance, age and quantity of residuals -with requirements f o r future growth. The r a d i a l effect of high lead logging nay cause excessive scarring of understories - balsam wooly aphid can pose a serious threat to amabilis f i r . In these later instance, however, no aphid infestation has been found above 2700* i n the Vancouver D i s t r i c t - nor does scarring damage to balsam at cool elevations seea to acerbate the incidence of heart r o t . Growth response of Aaa.biJ.is f i r - , following logging i s not significant for about 4-6 years. Moist habitats "with good drainage and cooler summer temperatures favour Amabilis f i r . Response i s poor on dry rocky s o i l s . (a) Acceptable advanced regeneration Local examinations of advanced growth (e.g. balsam), released by logging from overstory competition, may provide some clue as to i t s potential reforestation value. In the absence of l o c a l information about advanced growth and i t s capabilities, the following c r i t e r i a must be met: 1. Sufficient advanced growth must be sampled to determine disease condition and average age. Stems or stands exhibiting mistletoe infections or excessive rot should be disqualified. Age, as a factor of release potential, i s d i f f i c u l t to assess - some trees over 100 years are capable of release. Nevertheless, stem crown quality can deteriorate m t h age. A decision to accept or reject can often ba based on a sampling of bole and crcv.Ti characteristics to determine quality. Generally, residuals over 70 years of age may be judged inadequate as replacement stands. 2. Crown length and size must be capable of sustaining good growth. Extensive, well-shaped crowns are usually associated •vrith "seedling-size residuals" i n the younger age classes« As a rule, quality class 1 stems ("zeros", 0-10 inches d.b.h., good stem and crown) are favored. In borderline situations, stem classes above 1.1 inches should only be . considered as an adjunct to quality class I stocking i n - 5 - 134 deciding v/hether or not standards have been met. These "second quality 1' stems must also rate high on the scale of value for crown vigor, stem shape, age and disease condition. 3. Minor abnormality i n stem form, such as crowded branch internodes or slight crooks are acceptable i f they can be outgrown after release and the seedling or sapling has suffered no mechanical damage. . 4. Residual stands containing 250 well-distributed seedlings (quality class 1, zeros) per acre after logging can be considered stocked. Stands having less than 250 seedlings may be eliminated and a new stand started unless seedling residuals can be readily upgraded by f i l l - i n planting or heavily supported by quality stems above 1.1 inches d.b.h. Pre-commercial spacing, for quality and growth, may be necessary. . IV. Limited Timber-growing sites (Protection forest) . Many severe habitats (e.g. upper slope) appear marginal i n terms of growth potential and available nutrient levels. Also, c r i t i c a l i s the potential for s o i l erosion and compaction. Unless harvesting can be carried out economically without significant deterioration of such habitats, then harvesting should be prohibited. Stands whose major tree elements have site indices of less than 65 (base 100) or s o i l mantles of less than 1 foot over bedrock should not be logged. The occurrence of mountain hemlock i s an' indication of decreasing stand productivity - t o t a l stand growth being poor where mountain hemlock occurs i n frequency greater than 30 percent of the stand. Within the forest subzone of the Subalpine Mountain Hemlock zone, forest units on moderately dry rocky habitats or habitats with shallow s o i l appear obvious candidates for protection forests. Similarly, most units which can be classed as being mesic with shallow to deep s o i l s f a l l wdthin the sa^e protection class. Economic selection (remo-val of better stems) of even the marginal stand at Ipwer elevations i n the Mountain Hemlock zone, i s not recommended as a means of stand replacement - reservation from cutting, except experimentally, i s indicated. Unless upper slope research determines otherwise, forest harvest should be restricted to moist habitats with deep s o i l s supplied with temporary or permanexit water seepage. The guidelines are not intended to resolve a l l resource allocation or conf l i c t s at high elevations. Cutting must comply "with other published guidelines for coastal logging operations. F u l l account must be taken of the recreational,hydrological, edaphic etc. features of the area. 135 APPENDIX II Net present worth computer program. < H J R T R A N I V «> M H i L R H A I M . c 3 'i~n 7 ? 23: 5*-: 11 P * O .0-1 : O O O i . TO 0 2 C £ A L ™ , G N A C , G S A C , ! " N A C , P N A C , P S A C , T VOL , F V O L , C V O L , H V C L , B V O L , T Y V O L , M A ' " V h , B R A N C H , S P U R , M T C E , R E O P E N , OR. , DC , I f-. T ( 3 ) , H T C O S T C ) , K N C G S T P ) , 1 ^ A C , L ' • • I W T ? G = F . - C P . F 5 K , C P E P A T , C A , Y R , N ^ , S c B , C C P A T , C C N 0 , A , B , C , D , e , N O P . ~ H ( 4 ) ' C 0 0 3 •> , i • :U 1 H114 ) , V , CUP M , S , L L I f-'., R U T ATN.( 2 , 2 , 5 ) , P.R I G i , B R. I G2 , b G C I )L V , S M C u T V ~ • P I M - N S I C N Y I F L D ( 2 , 3 , 5 ) , F P ( 3 ) , C P ( 3 ) , H P ( 3 ) , B P ( 3 ) , C Y P ( 3 ) , F ( 3 ) , C ( ^ ) , H ( rf':!*.*!!'^*!*^!^ » C T « 3 » « C C < ? l _ , C Z I 3 ) . C F O . , , c r , C 3 ) , C O ( ? ) , B R c 5 s T ( 3 0 0 } ' + i ( • "i ^ * c ; i ^ - f j f ' ; : - C 0 S T 1 3 ' * IGICC31, W- IG 2 C ( 3 ) , S M C U L C ( 3 ) , B G C U L C ( 3 J ' T P T E T ! ) ' - S M 3 I , P L A N T ( 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 , 3 ) , S U M N C R < 3 , 2 , 5 , 2 , 3 ) , T S C N D R ( 2 , 2 , 5 , 2 , ^ ) C 0 M M 0 N / B 1 / P . Q T A T N , Y I E - X P X 0 6 0 ) 0 7 C C ' M M C i v / P 2 / N 0 K T H , S O U T H ~ ~ • — • — : — C C M M C N / B 3 / F P , C P , H P , B P , C Y P , F , H C C M M 0 ' : / B 4 / C Y , C T , C C , C Z , C F , C G , C O , . f - ' N C C S T , B P . C O S T , S P C O S T , R ! = C O < ; T . B R T G 1 C . • •- 0 C 0 3 r ' f ' ! ) C - H K I b2(. , b M C U L C , E G C U L C , P L C O S T , I N T , N T C O S T : ~ ~ — — C C M « r > ! / B 5 / F L A \ ' T TITLFS 0 0 1 0 D I i V ; - . N S I C M C R K ( 5 , 2 ) • O P R ( 1 4 , 5 ) , C A S ( 9 ,2 ) ~ : • r n i C P K / ' O = P O ' , ' T c t ' . ' r E K - , : * ' • , • P A L E - , • F A C E - , • C F E - , • EK ' , • • > / , ' * C P F < / ' T O T A ' , < L V O ' , ' L U M P . , . P r M ' , 1 0 VA L ' , ' O P E S • R A T I S • f l N S A * • ' . ' A -u- , ' P L - R . i ' , ' T l O N S l J * ' S ' 1 9 / 2 ' , ' G U I S ' DL I N ' , ' E OP ' i ' T R X T ~ ~ ' ! C i N ' , P = < S ' S E V E S ' R E S S ' I T E ' , ' G U I D ' , ' E L I N • , • F C P • , ' F R A T • , ' I 0 : i • * ' • > ' ' ' U . ' t ' P . F . ' , ' P E P S ' M A N E S ' N T ) . ' , ' ' , ' S E V E ' , ' K = S ' . ' I T F - . < G U * J U S ' 1.1 N ' , ' fc L P ' . ' F R A T S ' I O N ' , ' th . • , ' P . F . " , • S EM ' , ' I - P E S ' F M A N ' , ' : * ' E N T ) ' / . C A S / ' A C T U - , VAL P ' . ' L U S ' , ' A V E P. < , i A G F • , < C U T ' , ' P F P ' , ' V F A ' * , ' P.' , ' AV ER ' , ' A G E ' , ' C U T « , ' P E R S ' Y F A R S * * ' • / 0 0 1 2 4 0 0 I 1 t- I t) , 4 U VI . — ——— _ — F O R M A T ( ' 1 S 3 7 X , i * * * * * * * * * * * » * * * 4 * * * * ) V l i t J > * < ! * A i t l k < . t ( < t * * « * • ) ^ 1 J > 0 1 4 . GO 1 5 ) 1 4 0 1 / . r"1 "> ' V. P I T F- ( 6 , 4 0 1 ) F O F V / S T ( 3 8 X , ' * S 6 X , ' F I N A N C I A L I M P A C T O F L O G G I N G G U I O F L I N = S S 7X. • * ' ) ViP I T F (.fi , 4 0 2 ) 0 0 1 7 oo: a 4 1 . 2 4 0 3 F O R V A : ( . - B X , ' * S 2 1 X , • I N T H E S 2 4 X , ' * ' ) ' — — V ' C I T F ( f . , 4 0 3 ) r O P M A T ( : - g x , ' « = ' , 1 I X , ' C H I L L I W A C K . F F C V I N C I A L F O RF S T ' . 1 ? X . • * ' » . , 4-. T — -~ . . . - . . >.. i .' 0020 r> ^?} 4 0 4 I"• P 1 ! F ( ( , 4 J ^ ] ; F O R M A T ( 3 S X , ' * * , 1 X , ' ( I N T E R M S O F C I S C C U M T E D P R E S E N T V A L U F O F E X I S T I ' G S I X , •-•) - i 00 2? 0023 t"* ? i*. 4 0 5 i-< ••; 1 ! f 1 1 , 4 L' b ) : — , F 0 R M . ' : T ( 3 R X , ' * ' , 1 4 X , ' A N D S L C C F S S O R C R O P ) ' , 1 6 X , ' * ' ) l-. R I T F ( (: , 4 0 6 ) U u' ri H 0*25 4 0 6 / . r*1 "7 F ( ) F ( 3 8X, • * * * ¥ « * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * < i t » » » » < l » * < i < i i > i ) ! j i » j i > . ^ < , < . w < i m x , . . , • • — : : * / / ) V.' R T T F ( 6 , 4 0 7 ) . -* 'J c o 0 0 2 7 0 J 2 3 4 0 8 F n R A1 ( 1 8 X , ' K E Y : ' / ) — — WF. m ( t , 4 0 8 ) F O R M A T ( 1 2 X , ' A l = B . C . F . S A P P P A I S F D C O S T S A N D M A R K ' - T P R I C E S F O R A P R : • • 0 0 2 9 0 0 3 0 4 1 0 * T 1 1 G li. 1 ) — Vi C I T F. ( 6 , 4 1 0 ) f C R ' V T ( l ? x , ' A 2 = C . F . I E S T I M A T E D C O S T S A M D M A R K E T P R I C E S F O R A P R T I 0 0 3 1 0 0 3 2 4 0 9 * 1 9 7 4 ' ) ~ ~ ~ — i — — W R I T F ( 6 , 4 C 9 ) F O R ' - ' - A T ( 12X , ' A 3 = C A T T E R M O L F T I M B E R L T D . C O S T S A N D M A R K E T P R T C F S F O 0 0 3 3 0 0 3 4 \ \ i \ 'A c; 4 1 1 *'<' A - ' ^ I L 1 9 7 4 ' ) • — : _ V I T S ( 6 , 4 1 1 ) F ' . I P M A T ( ' 0 ' , 1 1 X , < B l = N O S L A S H B U R N I N G ' ) i—• .''' c o 0 0 3 6 0 0 3 7 4 1 2 w P. I ! ~ ( t, 4 1 2 ) - — — — F Q F M A T ( 1 2 X , ' B 2 = S L A S H B U R N I N G ' ) W R I T E ( 6 , 4 1 3 ) J 2. O O i i I - c/"» O o Ci I o < 2 : <\1 . > -r - 1 •-" x • •0* C\i r-l <j — ' •0 -H X 4- ! \ l CM lO O i u. i -3" .—i |<t- -t J -o o o o s l - im -0 O -) ! X —1 X l l - I - X -O X ro vo r\j r—1 * r-l h - — I— r-: 1- s u M a.' O a- O r 1 p 1 . |ir in in. |c. o ^ in vo : t n in tr. • o O > O o CO - 0 * CO - CO co o r - -o — «c — 1 t'_; *-i i~ t- S' H- Icy 6 a. CO 0- • r , t o O O O C O • u . U J a <r < I/) U J r— a: <w» t- 1—* < u . L l . <. 1 ZJ a t_' _ J C~ — 1 _j _ J _ l _ J h _ J _ J _ J _ J <4 < <: <T <J. 0 O 0 w' O o o <*• in -c 0 . 0 0 o o o o O C 1 a.' co . .-1 -< 1 (-• . LU L . , > Ll. • —1 <r 1 ~Z) - 1 o o • co m • * u. <M »' CD r-l cr. 01 CO - • - CT 2" • l U CO C_ LL • 1_J -o UJ LO. O LL. CL .-. co in • I h- C J <- o a o O C5 0 C L O > >• + 1 * — — •» < ^~ ~ rvl ~ <t o a i : < M — — •1* + o • 0 0 o • + -< .-I ~ — < a. — >- > O o * — o > o > > o . rj 1 a 1 cr, ^ o c O II c> a- r: t~ r- t> a- 1— 1— •— J O O O O O II - T C_' ?: 1-1 o CM {<"l CO C I CO o o o o o o 1 3 7 CM C • CO a — r-- :ij < • — CJ > 1 1-- — 11 r-l O >• O r̂ l vf cn crj cc cc 1 o o o o o o o o • O l U <I • • w C > li- lt M II r-l LL CNJ >- > r- o r- co -o N- cn CO co CJ O C'J O O O FPRTRAf' ! IV G CON P IL F f iv< A1N 0 3 - i C — 7 5 23 :5 5 : 11 PAGE 0003 > CCS9 0090 0C91 778 779 GP TP 779 Y2=0.C • NPRSC= < (GN AC*YT FLP( V , 1 , S ) / 100. ) * ('Y 1+Y2 ) ) / ( < 1. 0+I MT ( A ) ) ** ( YR+NORTH 1 *CCRA T) + rPTATNl V,'l ,S > ) ) 0092 C093 MOF• SC = Nnr-SC + ( (GSAC*YI ELP( V, 1, 3 ) / IOC. ) * < Y H Y2) ) / ( ( 1 .0+1 NT( A) ) ** (YR* *SPUTK( CCRAT ) + .RC:TATN( V , 1 ,S ) ) ) NDP.SC = NPRSC + ( (KNACKY I EL 0 t V , 2 . S ) / 10 0 . )>'< ( Y H Y2 ) ) / < (1 .0 + I NT ( A ) ) ** ( YR + 009'+' . * N G " T H ( C C. P. A T ) + P. 0 T A T N ( V > 2 » S ) ) ) NDRSC = NDRSC+ ( (IYS AC*Y I EL0( V , 2, S ) / 100. )*( Y1+-Y2) ) / ( ( 1 .0+!NT( A ) )**( YR + *50UTK(CCRAT)+PQ TATN (V,2.S) ) ) 00 95 00 9 6 NDR^C=r>0RSC + ( (PNAC*YIELD( V , 3, S ) / 10 C . ) * 1 YI + Y2 ) ) / I t 1 . 0 +1 N T ( A ) ) ** (YR + *N0RTH ( C CRAT)+P.CTATN ( V,3 , S ) ) ) nDPSr = f'PR.SC. + ( ( PS.AC*YI ELD( V , 3, S) / iGC. ) *( Y1+ Y2) ) / ( ( l.G + I MT (A ) (YR+ 009 7 00 9 5 100 '"SOUTH! Cr.o AT ) + PCT AT,N( Vt 3 t S ) ) ) CONTINUE DO 27 L = l , 3 CO 99 010 0 0101 c c K - c e = c . o IF(6U . - M.E0.1) GP TO 25 IF (CCRAT.LT.l_ ) C 0 TO 2 5 0x0 2 01 J3 0 10 4 I F ( M E R.EC.0) GO T P 51 X?=PLANT. (V , 1,CCRAT ,NER,L ) X2 = PLANT ( V,2,CCRAT , [ \ F R,L ) 0105 0106 0107 51 X3=PLANT(V,3 tCCRAT, NER,L) P-0 TO 5 2 X1=0 01 JB •0109 0110 52 X2=0 X3 = 0 IF(SER.EO.O) GO TO 53 0111 0112 0 11 3 X4 = P L A M (V ,1 ,CCR AT , SER , L ) X5=PLANT{V,2,CCRAT,SEP,L) Xfc= 0 L A NT ( V t 3 t CCR AT , S EP. t L ) 0114 0115 0 116 53 GO TC 54 X 4=0 'X5=0 0117 0 11 8 54. X6=0 0CPL = (X1*GNAC*PLCP5T< A) ) + ( X4*GNAC*PL COST (A) ) +( X2>?MNAC.*PLC3 ST( A ) )+( *X5*-'SAC*PL COST ( A ) ) + ( X3*PNAC*PLCOST (A ) ) + (X6*PSAC*PLCOST ( A) } 0119 0120 0131 25 DCPL = iOC PL/( 1 .0 +IMT ( A) )**<YF. + 1 ) GO TO 2 6 • PC PL=0.0 012 2 0123 2t C CONTINUE CALCULATION OF ROAD MTCE BETWEEN PASSES' I F ( Y R . E O . l ) GO TO 2 012 + 0135 012CV IF(YR..LF.LYR + 1. GO TO 2 K = L YR + 1 KK=YF-1 012 7 0128 012 9 5 DO 5 M=K,KK . • • DCN TCE=OCMTCE+ ( L YM T=?MTC GST ( A ) / 5 ) / ( (1 . 0 + IN T( A ) )**M) CONTINcr- 013 0 C CALCULATION OF COSTS F CR RO A OS.. E P I CC- ES AND CULVERTS DC.-TC E = nC?':TCE + ( ( ( M A IN* K N C. 0 S T ( A ) ) + ( F.P A NCH* r.RC OS T ( A ) ) + ( S P U Ry' S P C 0 ST I A * > ) + ( N T C E *M T COS T ( A ) )+(F EOPFM^-RECOST (A) ) + ( B R I G l * B R I G l C ( A ) ) + ( f?<UG2*BR 0 131 0132 -IGZC(A) ) + ( SMC UlV-SFCULC(A)) + (bGCULV* KGCULC(A) ) )/ (1.O + I N T ( A ) ) * * Y R ) DCNTCE=r:CMTCE + CCPL IF (CCRAT.LT.1)NORS C =0. oo 0133 013 + 013 5 TSCMf-P ( A t BURN t S tV i L ) = TSC NO R ( A t BL'R N t S t V t L ) •* NOR SC N DR = (OF - PCOST -t-N PR S C-DC NTC E ) / .100 S UMNPR(A , BURN,S,V, L)=SUMMOR ( A,EURN ,S,V,L)+NDR FORTRAN IV G COMPILER : FAIN 0 3-10-75 ' 23: 55 : 11 PAGE 0004 0136 ' . . 2 7 CONTINUE 0137 . 24 CONTINUE 0138 21 CONTINUE 0139 20 CONTINUE .. 0140 0141 0142 19 CONTINUE • LYP =YR L Y i" T = M T C E . < 0143 0144 0 14 5 10 200 GC TO 220 WRITE (6 ,200 ) (CPKIJ , CP.EEK ) ,J=1, 5 )' FORMAT( '1' ,12X ,5A4 ) 0146 014 7 01*3- 201 KR ! TE ( 6, 2C i ! ( OPF. ( I .OPERA T) ,1=1,14) FOPMAT (12X,14A4 ) WRITE(6,202)(CAS(K,CA),K=1,9) ' (.'149 0150 0151 202 2 03 FORMAT(12X,9A4///) WRITE(6,203) FORMAT! 13X, ' S i L 1 • , .4 X, ' SI L2 ' ,4 X , • S1 L3 ' ,4X , • S2 L 1 ' , 4X , • S 2L 2 ' , 4X, •S2L3 0152 *• ,4X, 'S.3L 1 • ,4X, • S3L2' ,4X, 'S3L3 1 , 4X , ' S4L 1' ,4X, ' S4L2' ,4X, ' S4L3' *S5L1',4X, ,S5L2 ,,4X,'S5L3'> PC 2 04 1=1,3 ,4X,' 0153 0154 0155 IK = 1 I J=l 00 762 S=l,5 01 5 6 015 7 015 3 762 PC 762 L=l,3 TSCNDR( I ,1K,S , I J , L ) = T S C N D f i ( I , I K , S , IJ , L)/SUMNDP(I.IK.S, I J . L ) WF ITF( 6,20 5) I, IK,.I J , ( ( T SON OR I I , IK ,S, I J,L) ,L =1 , 3 ) ,S =1 , 5 ) ' 015 9 0160 . 0161 205 FORMAT(2X, ,A ,,I1,'B',I1,'V',I1,3X,15F8.7) IK = 2 . DO 763 S=l,5 0 i 6 2 0163 0 1 64 763 CO 763 L=l,3 TSCNOKII , IK,S,IJ,L)=TSCNDR(I ,IK ,S,IJ,L)/SUMNDP ( I , I K , S , I J , L ) WP. IT F( 6, 20 6 ) I , IK, I J , ( ( TSCNDP ( I , IK, S, I J ,LI ,L = 1 , 3) ,S = 1, 5) 0 16 5 0166 0167 2 06 FORMAT (2X , •A 1 , 11 , •B«,I 1,•V* , I 1 ,3X, 15F8.7) IJ.= 2 ' 00 764 S=l,5 0163 0169 017 0 764 DO 764 L=l,3 TSCNt'R ( I , I K , S , I J , L ) =TSCNDP ( I , I K ,5, IJ , L) /SUMNDP ( I, I K , S , I J , L ) WK ITE(6,207) I, I K , I J , (< TSCNDP( I , IK , S, IJ , L ) ,L=1,3 ) , S = l , 5 ) 0 1 71 0172 0173 207 204 F0RMAT(2X, ,A' ,11 8 * »11 , ' V * ,11 ,2X,15F8.7) o CONTINUE 00 TC 430 01 74 0175 9999 STOP EMC TOTAL MEMORY REQUIREMENTS 002238 BYTES COMPILE T I M F -. 1.5 SECONDS vo F O R - R A N I V G r O M P I L F R Y E A R 0 3 - 1 0 - 7 5 2 3 : 5 5 : 1 3 P A G E 0 0 0 1 com . O C 02 0 0 0 5 . 0 0 )'+ S U B ? C U T I (ME Y E A R I N T E G E R R O T ATM(2 ,3 ,5 ) r i . ' • • " • \ ? I r.\- Y I E L L ( 2 , 3 , 5 ) C C M ? ' C N / B 1 / R O T A T M , Y I E L D C 0 . » 5 J O 0 6 ) 7 D O 7 1 = 1 , 2 D O ' 6 J = l , 5 R G A D ( 5 , 1 0 0 ) ( R O T A T . : t I , J , K ) , K = 1 , 5 ) , ( Y I F L D ( I , J , K . ) , K = 1 , 5 ) C C O 3 1QJ9 • 0 0 1 J 1 0 0 f. 7 F O F , V A T ( . c 1 3 , 5 F 6 . 0 ) C O N T I N U E C O N T I N U E 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 2 R E T U R N E N D T O T A L M E M O R Y R E Q U I R E M E N T S 000210 B Y T E S C O M P I L E T I K E = • C O S E C O N D S O FORTRAN I V G . C O P P l l E R LTG 02-10-75 22:55:13 J C J 1 S U B R O U T I N E L A G 0 0 0 2 . I N T E G E R N O R T H ( 4 ) , S C U T H ( 4 ) 0 0 0 3 0 C " M C N / B 2 / r O R T h ! f S O L T H 0 0 ) 4 F E A 0 ( 5 , 1 0 1 ) ( N O R T H ! I ) , 1 = 1 , 4 ) , ( S O U T H ( I ) , 1 = 1 , 4 ) OC 05 TUl F O R M A T ( 8 1 2 ) ~ 0 0 0 6 R E T U R N 0 0 0 7 E N D T O T A L M E M O R Y R E Q U I R E M E N T S 0 0 0 1 9 8 B Y T E S C O M P I L t T I M E = oTo S E C O N D S 0301 S U B R O U T I N E P R I C F 00 )2 INTEGEP A 0 3 0 1 - DIMENS I ON F P { 2 ) , C P ( 3 ) ,HP< 3) ,BP(5) , C Y P ( 3 ) , F i 3) ,H<? > T )•••, COMMON/83/FP,CP,HP,BP,CYP,F,h • CC)5 0 0 8 A = 2 , 3 0006 t-E »!) ( 5, 1C2 ) FP ( A) , CP( A) , HP( A) ,BP ( A ),C YP( A) ,F{ A) ,H( A) OC )7 102 FORMAT ( 7 ( F3 . 0 ,1X ) ) 0003 f? CONTINUE GJ09 RETURN 0010 END T O T A L M E M O R Y R E O U I P E M F N T S 0 0 0 1 9 4 B Y T E S C O M P I L E T I M E = T T O S E C O N D S >uK,-i4.N'lV _ U;MP1LH>- TTTST- : . ,•••.-10-75 ' ' i L 0 _ 3 • 5 i ; : 1 3 P A G E . u O O l OC 3 7 0 0 n S U B R O U T I N E COST 0 0 J 2 • INTEGER. A - J ; 5 J 3 F f - ' / i L I NT ( 3 )» MN COS T ( 3 ) < f' T C 0 c T ( ) — D l r f l I G " ' : y ! 3 ?' C T ' 3 1 . ' " ' 3 ) : C Z ( ; , ' C F ' ; ) ' C G m.c.m, b*COST < ,, S Pco *p.F )0O6 "fiTj q _~_~T .'^ ^ ^ * ' ^^ » CZ » C F , CG , C G t f'NC C'S T Bsc T sT » ^PC0S T f F ^C 0 ^ BF I C C ' I 0 r t , S v C U L C , B G C U L C , P L C 0 S T , I N T , K T 0 0S T . a R I G i C , ^ ™ : : ! " ' " ' f ' ' CT ( A ) , CC ( A ) , CZ (A ) , C F ( A ) , CG( U , CO ( A ) , M.NCn c T < A ) , BR - ^ f e r ^ S M C U L C ? A C O N T I N U E P E T U F N 0 011 END I U T A L MEMORY R F C U I R f c M E N T S 0 0 U 2 0 C B Y T E S C O M P I L E T I M E = p . ! S E C O N D S i m o 13 > -r CO (- (NJ i— <J~ — i : cc: i— i— « i O i £ 2 ; _ l <_> < - a I— o cr cc 1 2 O IJ. o o o o o o II CM |T| I— - - —' r - l C> II II c c-. c c. c c ir. o r- LO —- - <r -1 O LL. I II ,-I t'l ~3 - — LT I- I CO — c r" • ': 1 c c-j UJ ^ u. L- • l l ' i CM I r - l .-I r - l o o o o o Z 3 o 1 4 4

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