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Distribution, Management, Variability and Economics of Sitka spruce (Picea sitchensis (Bong.) Carr.)… Mac Siúrtáin, Máirtín Pádraig 1981

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D i s t r i b u t i o n , Management, V a r i a b i l i t y and Economics of S i t k a s p r u c e ( P i c e a s i t c h e n s i s (Bong.) C a r r . ) i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h C olumbia By M a i r t i n Padraig/Mac S i u r t a i n , B. A g r . S c . ( F o r e s t r y ) N a t i o n a l U n i v e r s i t y of I r e l a n d , D u b l i n , I r e l a n d . 1977. A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE MASTER OF SCIENCE DEGREE IN THE FACULTY OF GRADUATE STUDIES F a c u l t y of F o r e s t r y WE ACCEPT THIS THESIS AS CONFORMING TO THE REQUIRED STANDARDS The U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h Columbia J u l y , 1981. (c) M a i r t i n P a d r a i g Mac S i u r t a i n , 1981. I n p r e s e n t i n g t h i s t h e s i s i n p a r t i a l f u l f i l m e n t o f t h e r e q u i r e m e n t s f o r an a d v a n c e d d e g r e e a t t h e U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a , I a g r e e t h a t t h e L i b r a r y s h a l l make i t f r e e l y a v a i l a b l e f o r r e f e r e n c e a n d s t u d y . I f u r t h e r a g r e e t h a t p e r m i s s i o n f o r e x t e n s i v e c o p y i n g o f t h i s t h e s i s f o r s c h o l a r l y p u r p o s e s may be g r a n t e d by t h e H e a d o f my D e p a r t m e n t o r by h i s r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s . i t i s u n d e r s t o o d t h a t c o p y i n g o r p u b l i c a t i o n o f t h i s t h e s i s f o r f i n a n c i a l g a i n s h a l l n o t be a l l o w e d w i t h o u t my w r i t t e n p e r m i s s i o n . D e p a r t m e n t o f F o r e s t r y  The U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a 2075 Wesbrook Place Vancouver, Canada V6T 1W5 mo bhean M a r i o n , agus i gcuimhne m ' a t h a i r agus mo m h a t h a i r . (To my w i f e M a r i o n , and i n memory of my F a t h e r and Mother.) i i A b s t r a c t . Two major a s p e c t s of S i t k a spruce ( P i c e a s i t c h e n s i s (Bong.) C a r r . ) i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia were i n v e s t i g a t e d : 1. The f a c t o r s which i n f l u e n c e the management of the spec i e s . 2. The q u a n t i f i c a t i o n of the v a r i a b i l i t y of n a t u r a l l y r e g e n e r a t e d s t a n d s and p l a n t a t i o n s of the s p e c i e s . F a c t o r s a n a l y s e d were n a t u r a l d i s t r i b u t i o n , e c o l o g i c a l c l a s s i f i c a t i o n , the w h i t e p i n e w e e v i l ( P i s s o d e s s t r o b i P e c k . ) , c u r r e n t management, g e n e t i c improvement, volume p r o d u c i n g p o t e n t i a l and economic importance of the s p e c i e s . The major f a c t o r i n f l u e n c i n g the management of S i t k a s p r u c e , w i t h i n i t s n a t u r a l range, has been and w i l l c o n t i n u e t o be the w h i t e p i n e w e e v i l . The impact of the w h i t e p i n e w e e v i l on the management of S i t k a spruce has r e s u l t e d i n a v o i d a n c e of the s p e c i e s i n r e f o r e s t a t i o n programs throughout a v e r y l a r g e p a r t of the n a t u r a l range. C o n s e q u e n t l y , the n a t u r a l d i s t r i b u t i o n of S i t k a spruce i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia i s much g r e a t e r than the range w i t h i n which the s p e c i e s can be e c o n o m i c a l l y managed, t h e r e f o r e a d i s t i n c t i o n must be made between the n a t u r a l and economic range of the s p e c i e s . In e f f e c t , management of S i t k a s p r u c e , i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h C o lumbia, i s c o n f i n e d t o the n o r t h e r n and western extremes of Vancouver I s l a n d , the m a i n l a n d mid-coast r e g i o n s , the lower Nass and Skeena R i v e r V a l l e y s and the Queen C h a r l o t t e I s l a n d s . A n a l y s i s of v a r i a b i l i t y of p l a n t a t i o n grown S i t k a spruce i n d i c a t e d t h a t the s p e c i e s has v e r y • r a p i d e s t a b l i s h m e n t p o t e n t i a l on e c o l o g i c a l l y s u i t a b l e w e e v i l f r e e s i t e s . Wide v a r i a t i o n i n p l a n t a t i o n performance prompted the p r e l i m i n a r y development of a s i m p l e , o b j e c t i v e method f o r a s s e s s i n g average j u v e n i l e t o t a l h e i g h t growth of S i t k a spruce p l a n t a t i o n s i n the Vancouver F o r e s t , Region. The assessment system was d e r i v e d from the r e l a t i o n s h i p between t o t a l age and t o t a l h e i g h t , and i n v o l v e d s e l e c t i n g and computing c o n f i d e n c e l i m i t s f o r the best i n t e r p r e t i v e m a t h e m a t i c a l model t h a t c o u l d be d e r i v e d from the d a t a . The proposed system p e r m i t s p r o b a b i l i t y t o be a s s i g n e d t o the assessment, thus the term P r o b a b i l i t y Assessment System. P r e l i m i n a r y development of t h i s assessment system i n d i c a t e d t h a t the system was s t r a i g h t f o r w a r d , and would be q u i c k and i n e x p e n s i v e t o a p p l y i n the f o r e s t , however, i t was recommended t h a t the system undergo f u r t h e r development and t e s t i n g b e f o r e b e i n g used o p e r a t i o n a l l y . The v a r i a b i l i t y w i t h i n n a t u r a l l y r e g e n e r a t e d s t a n d s i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia r e f l e c t s an u n d e r u t i l i z a t i o n of S i t k a s p ruce i n comparison t o the i n t e n s i v e l y managed S i t k a spruce p l a n t a t i o n s of Great B r i t a i n and I r e l a n d . H i g h e r average i v p r o d u c t i v i t y i n Great B r i t a i n and I r e l a n d was a t t r i b u t e d t o the h i g h e r l e v e l of i n t e n s i v e f o r e s t management p r a c t i c e d by B r i t i s h and I r i s h f o r e s t e r s . I t was e s t a b l i s h e d t h a t t h e r e i s more a r e a of S i t k a s p r u c e i n Great B r i t a i n and I r e l a n d than i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h C o lumbia, and of even g r e a t e r s i g n i f i c a n c e i s t h a t by the t u r n of the c e n t u r y Great B r i t a i n and I r e l a n d w i l l s u r p a s s c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia i n annual p r o d u c t i o n of S i t k a s p r u c e . A n a l y s i s of v a r i a b i l i t y and economics i n d i c a t e d the s u b s t a n t i a l volume and v a l u e p r o d u c i n g p o t e n t i a l of S i t k a s p r u c e . A management s t r a t e g y l i k e l y t o maximize volume and v a l u e through wide s p a c i n g and c o n t r o l of s t o c k i n g and s t a n d d e n s i t y has been p r e s e n t e d . F i n a l l y , s u g g e s t i o n s f o r i n c r e a s i n g f u n d i n g f o r i n t e n s i v e f o r e s t management of S i t k a s pruce and o t h e r h i g h y i e l d i n g s p e c i e s i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia, by r e v i s i o n of the p r e s e n t r e s t r i c t i v e l o g e x p o r t p o l i c y , were made. V TABLE OF CONTENTS A b s t r a c t i i Ta b l e of C o n t e n t s v i i i L i s t of F i g u r e s x i i i L i s t of T a b l e s x v i Acknowledgements x i x Chapter One. S i t k a s pruce i n p e r s p e c t i v e 1 1 :1 I n t r o d u c t i o n 1 1 : 2 O b j e c t i v e s 6 Chapter Two. N a t u r a l d i s t r i b u t i o n of S i t k a spruce i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia 8 2:1 I n t r o d u c t i o n 8 2:2 D i s c o v e r y 8 2:3 Post P l e i s t o c e n e d i s t r i b u t i o n of S i t k a s p r u c e . ... 9 2:4 E x t e n t of S i t k a spruce 10 2:5 E l e v a t i o n 13 2:6 L o c a t i o n of S i t k a spruce s t a n d s 13 2:7 P r e v a i l i n g c l i m a t i c c o n d i t i o n s 15 2:8 Ocean spray 19 2:9 Management i m p l i c a t i o n s 21 Chapter Three. E c o l o g i c a l c l a s s i f i c a t i o n of S i t k a spruce i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia 22 3:1 I n t r o d u c t i o n 22 3:2 G e n e r a l e c o l o g i c a l framework 22 3:3 E c o l o g i c a l c l a s s i f i c a t i o n s of ecosystems 23 3:4 E d a t o p i c g r i d s f o r S i t k a s pruce 26 3:5 Packee's e c o l o g i c a l c l a s s i f i c a t i o n 28 3:6 Management i m p l i c a t i o n s 29 Chapter F o u r . Impact of the w h i t e p i n e w e e v i l on the management of S i t k a spruce i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia. 30 4:1 I n t r o d u c t i o n 30 4:2 Nature of the damage 30 4:3 L o c a t i o n of w h i t e p i n e w e e v i l damage 32 4:4 Impact on management 34 4:5 C o n t r o l of the w h i t e p i n e w e e v i l 36 4:5:1 B i o l o g i c a l c o n t r o l 36 4:5:2 Chemical c o n t r o l 37 4:5:3 G e n e t i c c o n t r o l 39 4:5:4 S i l v i c u l t u r a l c o n t r o l 40 4:5:5 I n t e g r a t e d c o n t r o l 42 4:6 Management i m p l i c a t i o n s 43 Chapter F i v e . Management of S i t k a spruce i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia 44 5:1 Management i n p e r s p e c t i v e 44 5:2 C u r r e n t management 46 5:3 Tree s p e c i e s s e l e c t i o n 46 5:4 S i t e p r e p a r a t i o n 51 5:5 S i t k a spruce p l a n t i n g s t o c k 52 5:6 P l a n t a t i o n e s t a b l i s h m e n t and s u r v i v a l 54 5:7 P l a n t a t i o n performance 56 5:8 J u v e n i l e s p a c i n g 59 5:9 F e r t i l i z a t i o n . 61 5:10 Commercial t h i n n i n g ; 64 5:11 Volume of S i t k a spruce h a r v e s t e d 66 v i i 5:12 E s t i m a t e s of p r o d u c t i v i t y range 68 5:13 Management i m p l i c a t i o n s 71 Chapter S i x . G e n e t i c improvement of S i t k a spruce 74 6:1 I n t r o d u c t i o n 74 6:2 Falkenhagen ' s work 76 6:2:1 Seed and cone c h a r a c t e r i s t i c phase 78 6:2:2 N u r s e r y c h a r a c t e r i s t i c phase 80 6:3 I.U.F.R.O. I n t e r n a t i o n a l t e n 81 6:4 P r o v i n c i a l provenance t r i a l s 86 6:4:1 S i t k a s pruce provenance study 86 6:4:2 Provenance and f a m i l y t r i a l s 87 6:4:3 Progeny t r i a l 89 6:5 S i t k a s p r u c e c l o n a l seed o r c h a r d 90 6:6 Management i m p l i c a t i o n s 91 Chapter Seven. Growth and y i e l d of S i t k a spruce 94 7:1 I n t r o d u c t i o n 94 7:2 Western N o r t h American l i t e r a t u r e 95 7:2:1 S i t e q u a l i t y c l a s s i f i c a t i o n 95 7:2:2 N a t u r a l s t a n d y i e l d t a b l e s 99 7:2:3 Managed s t a n d y i e l d t a b l e s 102 7:3 Western European l i t e r a t u r e 104 7:3:1 S i t e q u a l i t y c l a s s i f i c a t i o n 104 7:3:2 Managed s t a n d y i e l d t a b l e s 105 7:4 D e f i n i t i o n of the study problem 111 7:5 V a r i a b l e s and s o u r c e s of v a r i a t i o n 112 7:6 Sampling d e s i g n 118 7:6:1 Sampling s p e c i f i c a t i o n s 118 7:6:2 L i m i t a t i o n s of the sa m p l i n g d e s i g n 121 v i i i 7:7 Data c o l l e c t i o n 122 Chapter E i g h t . V a r i a b i l i t y of S i t k a spruce 125 8:1 I n t r o d u c t i o n 125 8:2 A n a l y s i s p a r t one 125 8:2:1 V a r i a b i l i t y of S i t k a spruce p l a n t a t i o n s 126 8:2:2 V a r i a b i l i t y of n a t u r a l S i t k a spruce s t a n d s 130 8:2:3 Stand v a r i a b i l i t y i n Great B r i t a i n and I r e l a n d . ..140 8:2:4 P r o d u c t i v i t y of S i t k a spruce 144 8:2:5 Management of S i t k a spruce 146 8:2:6 Management s t r a t e g y f o r S i t k a spruce 151 8:3 A n a l y s i s p a r t two 156 8:3:1 R e s u l t s and management i m p l i c a t i o n s 156 8:4 D i s c u s s i o n of a n a l y s i s p a r t s one and two 162 Chapter N i n e . F o r m u l a t i o n of a j u v e n i l e p l a n t a t i o n assessment model 165 9:1 I n t r o d u c t i o n 165 9:2 P l o t and d i s c u s s DATA GROUP I 168 9:3 Suggest p o s s i b l e models 169 9:4:1 Simple l i n e a r model 170 9:4:2 Q u a d r a t i c model 174 9:4:3 Cub i c model 176 9:4:4 L o g a r i t h m i c model 180 9:5 The best s t a t i s t i c a l r e g r e s s i o n model 185 9:6 The best i n t e r p r e t i v e m a t h e m a t i c a l model. 188 9:7 S t a t i s t i c a l i n f e r e n c e of the model 190 9:8 C r i t i c i s m of the model 192 9:9 Management i m p l i c a t i o n s of t h i s model 193 Chapter Ten. Economics of S i t k a spruce i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h i x C olumbia. 197 10:1 I n t r o d u c t i o n . 197 10:2 Economic r o l e of S i t k a spruce i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia 1 97 10:2:1 Volume of S i t k a spruce c u t 198 10:2:2 V a l u e of S i t k a spruce 205 10:2:3 Annual volume of S i t k a s pruce l o g e x p o r t s 208 10:2:4 Log e x p o r t p o l i c y 213 10:2:5 V a l u e of S i t k a spruce l o g e x p o r t s 219 10:2:6 Management and economic i m p l i c a t i o n s 221 Chapter E l e v e n . Summary, c o n c l u s i o n s and recommendations. .223 11:1 I n t r o d u c t i o n 223 11:2 D i s t r i b u t i o n and e c o l o g y 223 11:3 Impact of w h i t e p i n e w e e v i l on S i t k a spruce 225 11:4 Management of S i t k a spruce 226 11:5 G e n e t i c improvement of S i t k a spruce 228 11:6 V a r i a b i l i t y of S i t k a s pruce 229 11:7 Economic r o l e of S i t k a s pruce 232 11:8 Recommendations f o r f u r t h e r r e s e a r c h 233 R e f e r e n c e s c i t e d 236 X LIST OF FIGURES F i g u r e 1. Approximate range of S i t k a spruce i n Western N o r t h America (Ruth and H a r r i s , 1979) 11 F i g u r e 2. C h a r a c t e r i s t i c low c l o u d c o v e r and fog b e l t commonly a s s o c i a t e d w i t h S i t k a spruce i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia 16 F i g u r e 3. C h a r a c t e r i s t i c " d r i p p i n g " on S i t k a s pruce f o l i a g e i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia . 17 F i g u r e 4. T y p i c a l l e a d e r damage r e s u l t i n g from c o n t i n u e d w h i t e p i n e w e e v i l a t t a c k 31 F i g u r e 5. Low w h i t e p i n e w e e v i l h a z a r d a r e a s on Vancouver I s l a n d , McMullen (1976) 33 F i g u r e 6. Guide t o s e l e c t i o n of t r e e s p e c i e s i n the Vancouver F o r e s t Region, K l i n k a (1977) 48 F i g u r e 7. L o c a t i o n s of S i t k a spruce provenances i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a , Falkenhagen and Nash (1978) 77 F i g u r e 8. P o l y m o r p h i c m e t r i c s i t e index c u r v e s f o r S i t k a spruce i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h C olumbia, M i n i s t r y of F o r e s t s (1980b) 98 F i g u r e 9. P a t t e r n s of volume increment i n an even-aged s t a n d , H a m i l t o n and C h r i s t i e (1971 ) 107 F i g u r e 10. G e n e r a l y i e l d c l a s s c u r v e s f o r S i t k a s p r u c e , H a m i l t o n and C h r i s t i e (1971) 108 F i g u r e 11. Mean annual volume increment c u r v e s f o r S i t k a s p r u c e , H a m i l t o n and C h r i s t i e (1971) 109 F i g u r e 12. Mean a n n u a l volume increment c u r v e s f o r Norway s p r u c e , D o u g l a s - f i r and P o p l a r , Y i e l d C l a s s 12, H a m i l t o n and C h r i s t i e (1 971 ) 109 F i g u r e 13. T o t a l h e i g h t v e r s u s t o t a l age f o r DATA GROUP I . 168 F i g u r e 14. S t a n d a r i z e d r e s i d u a l s of the s i m p l e l i n e a r model v e r s u s t o t a l age f o r DATA GROUP I 172 F i g u r e 15. S t a n d a r i z e d r e s i d u a l s of the s i m p l e l i n e a r model v e r s u s the square of t o t a l age f o r DATA GROUP I 172 F i g u r e 16. S t a n d a r i z e d r e s i d u a l s of the s i m p l e l i n e a r model v e r s u s the cube of t o t a l age f o r DATA GROUP I 173 F i g u r e 17. S t a n d a r d i z e d r e s i d u a l s of the c u b i c model v e r s u s t o t a l age f o r DATA GROUP I 178 F i g u r e 18. S t a n d a r d i z e d r e s i d u a l s of the t r a n s f o r m e d f u l l l o g a r i t h m i c model v e r s u s t o t a l age f o r DATA GROUP I . ...183 F i g u r e 19. F i t t e d c u b i c model of t o t a l h e i g h t v e r s u s t o t a l age f o r DATA GROUP I , i l l u s t r a t i n g v e r y poor c o n f o r m a t i o n t o the b i o l o g i c a l phenomenon of j u v e n i l e h e i g h t growth of S i t k a spruce 187 F i g u r e 20. F i t t e d f u l l l o g a r i t h m i c model of t o t a l h e i g h t on t o t a l age f o r DATA GROUP I , i l l u s t r a t i n g r e a s o n a b l e c o n f o r m a t i o n t o the b i o l o g i c a l phenomenon of j u v e n i l e h e i g h t growth 189 F i g u r e 21. P l o t t e d c o n f i d e n c e i n t e r v a l s about the f i t t e d t r a n s f o r m e d f u l l l o g a r i t h m i c model of t o t a l h e i g h t on t o t a l age f o r DATA GROUP 1 191 F i g u r e 22. Annual volume of S i t k a spruce c u t i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia i n m3, by f o r e s t r e g i o n , d u r i n g the p e r i o d 1914-79 199 F i g u r e 23. The average s e l l i n g p r i c e s of No.1, No.2, No.3 and " a l l g r a d e s " S i t k a spruce i n r e a l $/m3 f o r the p e r i o d 1956-79, i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia 206 F i g u r e 24. Annual volume of S i t k a spruce l o g e x p o r t s from c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia i n m3, by c o u n t r y of d e s t i n a t i o n , f o r the p e r i o d 1937-79 209 F i g u r e 25. T o t a l a n n u a l volume of S i t k a spruce l o g s c u t and e x p o r t e d from c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia i n m3, f o r the p e r i o d 1937-79. ..." 212 F i g u r e 26. T o t a l annual volume of Japanese softwood l o g i m p o r t s i n m3, from the U n i t e d S t a t e s and Canada, f o r the p e r i o d 1959-79 215 F i g u r e 27. The t o t a l a nnual v a l u e of S i t k a s pruce l o g e x p o r t s from c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia i n r e a l $000, by c o u n t r y of d e s t i n a t i o n , f o r the p e r i o d 1956-79 219 x i i i LIST OF TABLES T a b l e 1. F o r e s t o r g a n i z a t i o n s v i s i t e d , and management a c t i v i t i e s i n S i t k a spruce n a t u r a l l y r e g e n e r a t e d s t a n d s and p l a n t a t i o n s i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia i n 1978. ... 5 T a b l e 2. B i o g e o c l i m a t i c u n i t s c o n t a i n i n g S i t k a s p r u c e , i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia, K r a j i n a (1978) 24 T a b l e 3. E d a t o p i c g r i d s f o r S i t k a spruce i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h C o lumbia, K r a j i n a (1969) 28 T a b l e 4. Data summary of s i x - y e a r - o l d S i t k a spruce a t Cowichan Lake, B.C., n = 61 42 T a b l e 5. Methods of t r e e s p e c i e s s e l e c t i o n by f o r e s t company 50 T a b l e 6. T o t a l S i t k a spruce sowings by type of s t o c k i n a l l M i n i s t r y of F o r e s t s n u r s e r i e s , 1971-79, (000) 53 TABLE 7. Annual S i t k a spruce p l a n t i n g program, p e r c e n t of company p l a n t i n g , and p e r c e n t s u r v i v a l by f o r e s t company i n B.C 54 T a b l e 8. Annual j u v e n i l e s p a c i n g program by f o r e s t company on Queen C h a r l o t t e I s l a n d s s i n c e 1973, (ha) 60 TABLE 9. Average annual volume of S i t k a spruce h a r v e s t e d , and p e r c e n t of company t o t a l , by f o r e s t company 67 TABLE 10. P r o d u c t i v i t y range f o r S i t k a spruce i n m 3/(ha.a) l i s t e d by f o r e s t company 69 TABLE 11. Parameter names, a b b r e v i a t i o n s and u n i t s of measurement of the v a r i a b l e s e s t i m a t e d 113 T a b l e 12. F o r e s t o r g a n i z a t i o n s , l o c a t i o n and number of x i v p o i n t samples measured i n 1978 123 Tabl e 13. Averages of v a r i a b l e s , measured i n DATA GROUP I , by l o c a t i o n 126 Table 14. Minimum, maximum, mean, s t a n d a r d d e v i a t i o n , and 95% c o n f i d e n c e i n t e r v a l s about the sample mean f o r v a r i a b l e s measured i n DATA GROUP I 128 Tabl e 15. Averages of v a r i a b l e s , measured i n DATA GROUP I I , by l o c a t i o n 131 Tab l e 16. Minimum, maximum, mean, s t a n d a r d d e v i a t i o n , and 95% c o n f i d e n c e i n t e r v a l s about the sample mean f o r v a r i a b l e s measured i n DATA GROUP I I 136 Tabl e 17. Average and maximum v a l u e s of st a n d v a r i a b l e s f o r immature S i t k a spruce e x t r a c t e d from M i n i s t r y of F o r e s t s , I n v e n t o r y D i v i s i o n d a t a by Smith (1973) 140 Tab l e 18. Average stand development of S i t k a spruce i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia and Great B r i t a i n 141 Tab l e 19. Comparison of average u n t h i n n e d s t a n d development of S i t k a s p r u c e , of e q u i v a l e n t age, i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia and N o r t h e r n I r e l a n d 143 Tab l e 20. Average p r o d u c t i v i t y of S i t k a spruce i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia, Great B r i t a i n and I r e l a n d i n m 3/(ha.a) 145 Tabl e 21. Management of S i t k a spruce i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h C o l umbia, Great B r i t a i n and I r e l a n d 148 Tab l e 22. Ze r o - o r d e r c o r r e l a t i o n m a t r i x , and h y p o t h e s i s r e s u l t s , f o r the t h r e e main v a r i a b l e s i n DATA GROUP I . .157 Tabl e 23. Ze r o - o r d e r c o r r e l a t i o n m a t r i x , and h y p o t h e s i s r e s u l t s , f o r the t h i r t e e n v a r i a b l e s i n DATA GROUP I I . ..160 X V Table 24. G e n e r a l o u t l i n e of a parsimonous model b u i l d i n g approach 1 67 Table 25. A n a l y s i s of v a r i a n c e t a b l e , t e s t i n g f o r l a c k of f i t , of the c u b i c model f o r DATA GROUP I 180 Table 26. A n a l y s i s of v a r i a n c e t a b l e , t e s t i n g f o r l a c k of f i t , of the t r a n s f o r m e d f u l l l o g a r i t h m i c model f o r DATA GROUP I 184 Table 27. Comparative s t a t i s t i c s of the c u b i c and t r a n s f o r m e d f u l l l o g a r i t h m i c models f o r t o t a l h e i g h t on t o t a l age f o r DATA GROUP I 186 Table 28. P r o b a b i l i t y Assessment System (PAS) f o r young S i t k a spruce p l a n t a t i o n s , u s i n g p r e d i c t e d average t o t a l h e i g h t , and 95 p e r c e n t c o n f i d e n c e l i m i t s 194 Table 29. S i t k a spruce s t a t i s t i c s i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia 202 Table 30. S i t k a spruce p r o d u c t i o n f o r e c a s t s f o r E i r e and N o r t h e r n I r e l a n d i n m3, 1980-2004 204 x v i Acknowledgements I w i s h t o e x p r e s s s i n c e r e thanks t o Dr. J . H. G. S m i th, f o r w i t h o u t h i s s u s t a i n e d i n t e r e s t i n i n t e n s i v e f o r e s t management and S i t k a s pruce t h i s work c o u l d not have been completed. C o n s t r u c t i v e r e v i e w s , c r i t i c i s m and comments by Dr. P. C o t t e l l , Dr. D. Munro and Dr. J . V. T h i r g o o d were h e l p f u l and much a p p r e c i a t e d . The c o o p e r a t i o n of f e d e r a l , p r o v i n c i a l and p r i v a t e f o r e s t o r g a n i z a t i o n s and p e r s o n n e l was e x c e p t i o n a l and i n v a l u a b l e e s p e c i a l l y d u r i n g d a t a c o l l e c t i o n . S p e c i a l thanks are due t o : Canadian C e l l u l o s e Company L i m i t e d , Canadian F o r e s t P r o d u c t s L i m i t e d (C.F.P. L t d . ) , Crown Z e l l e r b a c h Canada L t d . (C. Z. Canada L t d . ) , the C o u n c i l of F o r e s t I n d u s t r i e s of B r i t i s h C o lumbia, M a c M i l l a n B l o e d e l L i m i t e d , P a c i f i c F o r e s t P r o d u c t s Company L i m i t e d f o r m e r l y P a c i f i c Logging Company L i m i t e d (P.F.P. L t d . ) , Western F o r e s t P r o d u c t s L i m i t e d (W.F.P. L t d . ) f o r m e r l y R a y o n i e r Canada (B.C.) L t d . , T a h s i s Company L i m i t e d , and T w i n r i v e r Timber L i m i t e d . I a l s o w i s h t o thank T. T e n e s c i , J . N i g h t i n g a l e and J . C o u l t h a r d of the Computing C e n t r e at U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h Columbia f o r t h e i r immeasurable a s s i s t a n c e . The f i n a n c i a l s u p p o r t of the VanDusen F e l l o w s h i p i n x v i i F o r e s t r y , the Donald S. McPhee F e l l o w s h i p Fund and the U.B.C. Graduate F e l l o w s h i p Fund was a p p r e c i a t e d . I w i s h t o thank Anthony Waugh f o r h i s c o n t i n u e d support and encouragement and, f i n a l l y , E r i c Lee f o r h i s h e l p . 1 CHAPTER ONE. S i t k a spruce i n p e r s p e c t i v e . 1:1 I n t r o d u c t i o n . S i t k a spruce ( P i c e a s i t c h e n s i s (Bong.) C a r r . ) has become the most commonly p l a n t e d s p e c i e s i n Great B r i t a i n and I r e l a n d i n the p a s t t h r e e decades. I t has proven t o be an e x t r e m e l y h i g h volume p r o d u c i n g s p e c i e s i n the i n t e n s i v e l y managed p l a n t a t i o n s of both c o u n t r i e s ( H a m i l t o n and C h r i s t i e , 1971; P u r c e l l , 1977; C h r i s t i e and L i n e s , 1979). Great i n t e r e s t has been g e n e r a t e d by European f o r e s t e r s i n S i t k a s p ruce and o t h e r i m p o r t a n t n a t i v e western n o r t h American s p e c i e s i n c l u d i n g D o u g l a s - f i r (Pseudotsuga m e n z i e s i i ( M i r b . ) F r a n c o ) , l o d g e p o l e p i n e P i n u s c o n t o r t a D ougl., and western hemlock (Tsuga  h e t e r o p h y l l a Raf. S a r g . ) The emphasis of western European f o r e s t e r s has been on the s e l e c t i o n of h i g h y i e l d i n g provenances which can be used i n r e f o r e s t a t i o n and a f f o r e s t a t i o n programs i n Europe ( B a r n e r , 1971; F l e t c h e r , 1976). Numerous seed c o l l e c t i o n s have been made i n western N o r t h America and subsequent i n s t a l l a t i o n s of provenance t r i a l s on an i n t e r n a t i o n a l s c a l e have been i n i t i a t e d (0' D r i s c o l l , 1976a; 1977; I l l i n g w o r t h , 1976). 2 While the importance of S i t k a spruce i n Great B r i t a i n and I r e l a n d cannot be o v e r s t a t e d t h i s work w i l l c o n c e n t r a t e on the f a c t o r s which i n f l u e n c e the management of S i t k a spruce i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h C o lumbia. R e f e r e n c e t o S i t k a s p r u c e i n Great B r i t a i n and I r e l a n d w i l l be made f o r comparison throughout t h i s work. The s i l v i c a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of S i t k a spruce w i t h i n i t s n a t u r a l range have been s t u d i e d e x t e n s i v e l y (Bongard, 1833; C a r r i e r e , 1855; Sudworth, 1908, Day, 1957; F o w e l l s , 1965; Woodfin, 1973; F r a n k l i n and Dyrness, 1973; H a r r i s and F a r r , 1974; V i e r e c k and L i t t l e , 1974, H o s i e , 1975; and H a r r i s 1978). T h e r e f o r e , the s i l v i c s of S i t k a s pruce w i l l not be emphasized i n t h i s work. H a r r i s and Ruth (1970) c o m p i l e d a v e r y comprehensive b i b l i o g r a p h y w i t h a b s t r a c t s f o r S i t k a s p r u c e , and P h e l p s (1973) summarized l i t e r a t u r e on the s p e c i e s w i t h s p e c i a l r e f e r e n c e t o B r i t i s h Columbia, and b r i e f l y d i s c u s s e d the management of S i t k a s p r u c e . P r i o r t o 1960, f o r e s t management i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia c o n s i s t e d p r i m a r i l y of h a r v e s t i n g and f i r e c o n t r o l . S i n c e 1960, a g r e a t d e a l of emphasis has been d i r e c t e d t o i n t e n s i v e f o r e s t management i n Canada ( S m i t h , 1976; 1977a; 1978; Reed, 1978). Much has been, a c c o m p l i s h e d p a r t i c u l a r l y on 3 p r i v a t e l y managed f o r e s t l a n d i n the Vancouver F o r e s t Region (VFR) ( S m i t h , 1977a). N e v e r t h e l e s s , i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia v e r y l i t t l e emphasis has been g i v e n t o the management of i n d i v i d u a l t r e e s p e c i e s o t h e r than D o u g l a s - f i r . T h i s t h e s i s w i l l c o n c e n t r a t e , t h e r e f o r e , on the f a c t o r s which i n f l u e n c e the management of n a t u r a l l y r e g e n e r a t e d s t a n d s and p l a n t a t i o n s of S i t k a s pruce i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h C olumbia. A b r i e f e x a m i n a t i o n w i l l be made of the d i s t r i b u t i o n , e c o l o g i c a l c l a s s i f i c a t i o n , g e n e t i c improvement and c u r r e n t management of the s p e c i e s . The impact of the w h i t e p i n e w e e v i l ( P i s s o d e s s t r o b i Peck.) on the management of S i t k a spruce w i l l be s t r e s s e d . The p r o d u c t i v i t y of n a t u r a l even-aged s t a n d s of S i t k a spruce and western hemlock a t 70 y e a r s w i t h i n the n a t u r a l range of the s p e c i e s ranges from 4.6 t o 21 c u b i c meters per h e c t a r e per annun which w i l l be denoted by m 3/(ha.a) (Meyer, 1937). Recent e s t i m a t e s of the p r o d u c t i v i t y of S i t k a s pruce i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h C o lumbia, f o r the 18 cm diameter b r e a s t h e i g h t l e v e l , o b t a i n e d from volume/age c u r v e s ranged from 1.5 t o 12.8 m 3/(ha.a) ( P h e l p s , 1973). W h i l e p r o d u c t i v i t y e s t i m a t e s f o r western hemlock have been r e v i s e d and updated (Barnes, 1962) l i t t l e m e n s u r a t i o n a l emphasis has been p l a c e d on n a t u r a l stands of S i t k a s p r u c e . Emphasis w i l l , t h e r e f o r e , be p l a c e d on the q u a n t i f i c a t i o n of the v a r i a b i l i t y of n a t u r a l l y r e g e n e r a t e d s t a n d s and p l a n t a t i o n s of S i t k a s pruce i n the p r o v i n c e . To date 4 no q u a n t i t a t i v e c r i t e r i o n has been d e v e l o p e d t o a s s e s s the performance of young S i t k a s pruce p l a n t a t i o n s i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h C olumbia. A s i m p l e , o b j e c t i v e , q u a n t i t a t i v e p l a n t a t i o n assessment system f o r S i t k a spruce i n the Vancouver F o r e s t Region w i l l be developed based on the r e l a t i o n s h i p between t o t a l h e i g h t growth and t o t a l age. Such p r e l i m i n a r y a n a l y s e s s h o u l d p r o v i d e a b a s i s f o r more r i g o r o u s q u a n t i t a t i v e a n a l y s i s . W h i l e e d a p h i c , g e n e t i c and e n v i r o n m e n t a l f a c t o r s g r e a t l y i n f l u e n c e the volume p r o d u c i n g p o t e n t i a l of the s p e c i e s , i t i s the i n h e r e n t p r o p e r t i e s and v a l u e of S i t k a s p r u c e which u l t i m a t e l y d etermine t o what degree the s p e c i e s s h o u l d be managed. For t h i s r e a s o n , the economic r o l e of S i t k a s p r u c e i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia w i l l be a n a l y s e d . The importance of the l o g e x p o r t market i n p r o v i d i n g the r e a l f i n a n c i a l i n c e n t i v e f o r i n t e n s i v e f o r e s t management of S i t k a s p r u c e w i l l be o u t l i n e d . The d i v e r s i t y of f a c t o r s o u t l i n e d f o r i n t h i s t h e s i s r e v i e w n e c e s s i t a t e s t h a t emphasis must be g i v e n t o b r e a d t h  r a t h e r than depth of c o v e r a g e . C o l l e c t i o n of f i e l d and management d a t a n e c e s s i t a t e d t r a v e l i n g the e n t i r e n a t u r a l range of S i t k a s pruce i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia i n the summer of 1978. A summary of f o r e s t o r g a n i z a t i o n s v i s i t e d and management a c t i v i t i e s i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia i n p r e s e n t e d i n T a b l e 1. 5 T a ble 1. F o r e s t o r g a n i z a t i o n s v i s i t e d , and management a c t i v i t i e s i n S i t k a spruce n a t u r a l l y r e g e n e r a t e d stands and p l a n t a t i o n s i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia i n 1978. FOREST ORGANIZATION MANAGEMENT ACTIVITY W.F.P. L t d . P l a n t a t i o n s a t P o r t M c N e i l l , H o l b e r g , Moresby I s l a n d , and S e w e l l I n l e t . J u v e n i l e s p a c i n g and e a r l y t h i n n i n g t r i a l on Moresby I s l a n d . M a c M i l l a n B l o e d e l L t d . P l a n t a t i o n s a t Kennedy Lake on Vancouver 'Island and a t J u s k a t l a on Queen C h a r l o t t e I s l a n d s . T a h s i s Co. L t d . Progeny t r i a l on Nootka I s l a n d , I n t e r n a t i o n a l t e n provenance t r i a l a t Head Bay. P l a n t a t i o n s a t Go l d R i v e r and c l o n a l seed o r c h a r d on S a a n i c h P e n i n s u l a . C. Z. Canada L t d . J u v e n i l e s p a c i n g , p l a n t a t i o n s , provenance and f a m i l y t r i a l s on Moresby I s l a n d . C.F.P. L t d . N a t u r a l l y r e g e n e r a t e d stands and p l a n t a t i o n s i n N i m p k i s h V a l l e y and Beaver Cove. M i n i s t r y of F o r e s t s . Provenance t r i a l s , n u r s e r y p r a c t i c e , and 1929 spruce p l a n t a t i o n t r i a l s . T w i n r i v e r Timber L t d . N a t u r a l cottonwood/spruce s t a n d s , and p l a n t a t i o n s i n Nass and Skeena R i v e r V a l l e y s . P.F.P. L t d . U n d e r p l a n t e d spruce a t Cowichan Lake. F a c u l t y of F o r e s t r y Measurement of sample p l o t s a t U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h Columbia Endowment Lands, and a t Haney. G e n e t i c c o n f e r e n c e , and w h i t e p i n e w e e v i l r e s e a r c h p l a n s . 6 1 :2 O b j e c t i v e s . The o b j e c t i v e s of t h i s t h e s i s a r e : 1. To review s e l e c t e d r e f e r e n c e s on the n a t u r a l d i s t r i b u t i o n , e c o l o g i c a l c l a s s i f i c a t i o n , and g e n e t i c improvement of S i t k a spruce i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia. 2. To e v a l u a t e the impact of the w h i t e p i n e w e e v i l on the management of S i t k a spruce i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia. 3. To e v a l u a t e c u r r e n t management of n a t u r a l l y r e g e n e r a t e d s t a n d s and p l a n t a t i o n s of S i t k a spruce i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia. 4. To b r i e f l y r e v iew growth and y i e l d l i t e r a t u r e S i t k a spruce i n Western N o r t h America Western Europe. 5. To e s t i m a t e the v a r i a b i l i t y w i t h i n n a t u r a l l y r e g e n e r a t e d s t a n d s and p l a n t a t i o n s of S i t k a spruce i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia. 6 . To c h a r a c t e r i z e the r e l a t i o n s h i p s between i n d i v i d u a l t r e e and s t a n d parameters i n the sense of d e t e r m i n i n g the e x t e n t , s t r e n g t h and 7 a s s o c i a t i o n among the s e p a r a m e t e r s . 7. To determine the " b e s t " i n t e r p r e t i v e m a t h e m a t i c a l model f o r a s s e s s i n g the performance of young S i t k a spruce p l a n t a t i o n s i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h C olumbia. 8. To e v a l u a t e the economic r o l e of S i t k a spruce and emphasize the n e c e s s i t y of p r o v i d i n g r e a l  f inane i a l i n c e n t i v e f o r i n t e n s i v e f o r e s t management of S i t k a spruce i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h C olumbia. The management i m p l i c a t i o n s of o b j e c t i v e s w i l l be s t r e s s e d when a p p r o p r i a t e . The t e x t was produced e n t i r e l y on computer u s i n g UBC FMTBASIC ( N i g h t i n g a l e , 1978), UBC FMT (Webb and N i g h t i n g a l e , .1978) and UBC THESIS ( N i g h t i n g a l e and R u s s e l l , 1979). The format f o l l o w e d t hroughout was t h a t o u t l i n e d by the F a c u l t y of Graduate S t u d i e s (1978). 8 CHAPTER TWO. N a t u r a l d i s t r i b u t i o n of S i t k a s pruce i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h C olumbia. 2:1 I n t r o d u c t i o n . The o b j e c t i v e of t h i s c h a p t e r i s t o r e v i e w s e l e c t e d r e f e r e n c e s on the n a t u r a l d i s t r i b u t i o n of S i t k a spruce i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia. 2:2 D i s c o v e r y . B u r l e y (1965) r e f e r r e d t o the d i s c o v e r y of S i t k a s p ruce on the shores of Puget Sound by A r c h i b a l d Menzies i n 1792, however, the s p e c i e s was not b o t a n i c a l l y d e s c r i b e d u n t i l f o r t y y e a r s l a t e r by Bongard (1833) who named i t P i n u s  s i t c h e n s i s . C a r r i e r e (1855) r e c l a s s i f i e d the s p e c i e s and gave i t the name S i t k a spruce ( P i c e a s i t c h e n s i s (Bong.) C a r r . , which has become the s c i e n t i f i c name f o r the s p e c i e s . The f i s h i n g p o r t of S i t k a on Baranof I s l a n d i n Southeast A l a s k a d e r i v e d i t s name from the former name f o r the 9 i s l a n d , S i t k a I s l a n d . I t was on S i t k a I s l a n d t h a t Bongard d e s c r i b e d the s p e c i e s , and a c c o r d i n g t o Woodfin (1973) the s p e c i e s i s c a l l e d a f t e r S i t k a I s l a n d . 2:3 Post P l e i s t o c e n e d i s t r i b u t i o n of S i t k a s p r u c e . Daubenmire (1968) argued t h a t S i t k a s pruce o c c u p i e d r o u g h l y i t s p r e s e n t c o a s t a l range b e f o r e the l a s t g l a c i a t i o n , but the range f o r m e r l y extended southward a l o n g the C a l i f o r n i a n c o a s t beyond the San F r a n c i s c o Bay a r e a . Two t h e o r i e s have been proposed t o account f o r the r e c o l o n i z a t i o n by S i t k a spruce i n i t s range a f t e r the l a s t g l a c i a l r e t r e a t . H u l t e n (1937) and H a l l i d a y and Brown (1943) h y p o t h e s i z e d t h a t S i t k a spruce i n h a b i t e d a s o u t h e r n " n i c h e " or r e f u g i u m d u r i n g the g l a c i a t i o n and f o l l o w e d the r e t r e a t i n g i c e back northward a l o n g the c o a s t t o A l a s k a . Heusser (1955) argued t h a t the s p e c i e s spread from s e v e r a l r e f u g i a on the Queen C h a r l o t t e I s l a n d s and a l o n g the c o a s t of Oregon and Washington t o i t s p r e s e n t m a r i t i m e range, f o l l o w i n g the r e t r e a t of the l a s t i c e age. Daubenmire (1968) s u p p o r t e d Heusser's e x p l a n a t i o n f o r the f o l l o w i n g r e a s o n ; " s i n c e g l a c i a t i o n appears t o have been s i m u l t a n e o u s a l o n g the c o a s t , r a t h e r than p r o g r e s s i n g a l o n g the c o a s t g r a d u a l l y , the d e g l a c i a t e d c o a s t a l s t r i p was a v a i l a b l e f o r c o l o n i z a t i o n by P. s i t c h e n s i s as r a p i d l y as i t had the c a p a c i t y t o spread from one or more r e f u g i a . I t s e a r l y appearance i n the p o s t -W i s c o n s i n sediments (Heusser, 1965) over so much of i t s former range t h a t had been o c c u p i e d by i c e , ( i . e . , Puget Sound t o 10 Juneau) would seem t o i n d i c a t e p e r s i s t e n c e of the p l a n t t h r o u g h a t l e a s t the l a s t g l a c i a l advance on nunataks w e l l s c a t t e r e d a l o n g the c o a s t from Puget Sound t o Juneau." He p o i n t e d out t h a t the s p e c i e s i s h i g h l y t o l e r a n t of s a l t spray (see 2:8) and an a g g r e s s i v e i n v a d e r of bare a r e a s , and t h e r e f o r e was w e l l adapted t o spre a d r a p i d l y from nunatak r e f u g i a . W h i l e the l a t t e r e x p l a n a t i o n appears t o be the more r e a s o n a b l e , Heusser (1964) e s t i m a t e d t h a t the mi d - W i s c o n s i n temperature d e p r e s s i o n of t h i s r e g i o n t o have been 6°C, and t h i s may have i n h i b i t e d nunatak s u r v i v a l . Thus the i s s u e i s s u b j e c t t o c o n j e c t u r e . H a r r i s (1978) p r o v i d e d a u s e f u l summary of the p l e i s t o c e n e h i s t o r y of the s p e c i e s . 2:4 E x t e n t of S i t k a s p r u c e . S i t k a spruce i s c o n f i n e d t o the narrow c o a s t a l s t r i p a l o n g the P a c i f i c c o a s t from Mendocino County i n n o r t h e r n C a l i f o r n i a (41°N L a t i t u d e ) t o Kodiak I s l a n d and the Kenai P e n i n s u l a (61°N) c o v e r i n g a l a t i t u d i n a l d i s t a n c e of 2,900 k i l o m e t e r s . The s t r i p a l s o extends i n l a n d a l o n g f j o r d s and c o a s t a l r i v e r v a l l e y s f o r d i s t a n c e s o f t e n i n exc e s s of 80 km. 11 0' D r i s c o l l (1977) r e p o r t e d t h a t maximum i n l a n d p e n e t r a t i o n of the s p e c i e s i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia was about 210 km. The most e x t e n s i v e p a r t of the range of the s p e c i e s o c c u r s i n the n o r t h e r n p o r t i o n of i t s n a t u r a l range and i t has t h e r e f o r e been l a b e l e d as a " n o r t h e r n s p e c i e s " ( H a r r i s , 1978). F i g u r e 1 shows the "approximate range" of the s p e c i e s . F i g u r e 1. Approximate range of S i t k a spruce i n Western N o r t h America (Ruth and H a r r i s , 1979). T h i s map of the approximate range of S i t k a spruce d i f f e r s s u b s t a n t i a l l y from p r e v i o u s l y p u b l i s h e d maps of the 1 2 n a t u r a l d i s t r i b u t i o n of the s p e c i e s ( F o w e l l s , 1965; Woodfin, 1973; H o s i e , 1975; 0' D r i s c o l l , 1977; and H a r r i s , 1978). The main d i f f e r e n c e i s t h a t the approximate range of S i t k a s pruce i s much more r e s t r i c t e d than i n maps of the n a t u r a l d i s t r i b u t i o n . The r e s t r i c t e d approximate range of S i t k a s pruce i s p a r t i c u l a r l y e v i d e n t on Vancouver I s l a n d . The main reason f o r t h i s s u b s t a n t i a l d i f f e r e n c e i s the impact of the w h i t e p i n e w e e v i l on S i t k a s p r u c e and i t s management (see 4:4). A d i s t i n c t i o n s h o u l d t h e r e f o r e be made between the n a t u r a l range and the economic range of S i t k a spruce i n Western N o r t h A m e r i c a . The approximate range of S i t k a spruce r e f l e c t s the i n f l u e n c e of r e s e a r c h on the e c o l o g i c a l c l a s s i f i c a t i o n of b i o g e o c l i m a t i c subzones (Packee, 1972, see 3:5) and d e l i n e a t i o n of low w h i t e p i n e w e e v i l h a z a r d a r e a s on Vancouver I s l a n d (McMullen, 1976, see 4:3). In f a c t , the f o g western h e m l o c k - S i t k a spruce b i o g e o c l i m a t i c zone (Packee, 1972) b e t t e r d e l i n e a t e s the a c t u a l o c c u r r e n c e of S i t k a spruce on Vancouver I s l a n d than most maps of the n a t u r a l d i s t r i b u t i o n of S i t k a s p r u c e . The r e p r e s e n t a t i o n of the approximate range f o r S i t k a s pruce i n F i g u r e 1 i s a r e a s o n a b l e e s t i m a t e of the economic range of S i t k a s pruce on Vancouver I s l a n d . The n a t u r a l range of S i t k a spruce i n the P a c i f i c Northwest and i n much of the Vancouver F o r e s t Region i s s h r i n k i n g because of whi t e p i n e w e e v i l damage and the p r e f e r e n c e g i v e n i n r e f o r e s t a t i o n programs t o w e e v i l r e s i s t a n t s p e c i e s (see 4:3) . Meyer (1937) e s t i m a t e d the g r o s s a r e a of mature s t a n d s of w e s t e r n hemlock and S i t k a s pruce t o be 512,000 h e c t a r e s i n 13 c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia. The M i n i s t r y of F o r e s t s (1980a) e s t i m a t e d t h a t the t o t a l a r e a of S i t k a s p r u c e i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia was 400,361 ha (see T a b l e 2 9 ) . 2:5 E l e v a t i o n . S i t k a spruce i s unique among the s p r u c e s i n t h a t i t i s a " l o w - e l e v a t i o n s p e c i e s " , even i n the s o u t h e r n p o r t i o n of i t s range. P h e l p s (1973) s t a t e d t h a t the s p e c i e s i s m a i n l y c o n f i n e d t o the Queen C h a r l o t t e I s l a n d s where i t grows from h i g h tidemark t o a maximum e l e v a t i o n of 760 m, however, the s p e c i e s i s u s u a l l y found below 305 m (Falkenhagen, 1974; F o w e l l s , 1965; Meyer, 1937). In A l a s k a Heusser (1954) r e p o r t e d i n d i v i d u a l S i t k a spruce t r e e s on f o u r w i d e l y s e p a r a t e d nunataks a t up t o 1,200 m e l e v a t i o n , and H a r r i s (1978) r e p o r t e d the s p e c i e s o c c u r s t o t r e e l i n e , which reaches n e a r l y 1000 m, i n S o u t h e a s t A l a s k a . 2:6 L o c a t i o n of S i t k a s pruce s t a n d s . I n d i v i d u a l open grown t r e e s o c c u r throughout the lower M a i n l a n d of southwest B r i t i s h C olumbia. Pure s t a n d s of the s p e c i e s are r a r e l y , i f e v e r , found i n t h i s r e g i o n p r i m a r i l y 1 4 because of the w h i t e p i n e w e e v i l which has d i s c o u r a g e d p l a n t i n g (see c h a p t e r f o u r ) . Stanek (1965) r e p o r t e d i n d i v i d u a l t r e e s a t the U n i v e r s i t y Research F o r e s t at Haney, and d u r i n g e x t e n s i v e f i e l d work i n 1978 the a u t h o r o b s e r v e d and measured s c a t t e r e d groups of the s p e c i e s on the U n i v e r s i t y Endowment Lands near the U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h C o lumbia, and a l o n g the N o r t h A l o u e t t e R i v e r near Haney. The rugged c o a s t l i n e from P o w e l l R i v e r t o P r i n c e Rupert i s c u r r e n t l y u n d e r g o i n g e c o l o g i c a l c l a s s i f i c a t i o n ( M i n i s t r y of F o r e s t s , 1979) (see 3:3). L i t t l e i s known of the c u r r e n t q u a n t i t y , q u a l i t y and l o c a t i o n of s t a n d s c o n t a i n i n g S i t k a s p ruce i n t h i s m i d - c o a s t s e c t i o n of the m a i n l a n d c o a s t of B r i t i s h Columbia m a i n l y because of d i f f i c u l t y of a c c e s s . Day (1957) s t u d i e d communities of S i t k a spruce i n the Skeena, Nass and L a k e l s e r e g i o n s and s t a t e d t h a t i n these a r e a s the s p e c i e s i s l a r g e l y c o n f i n e d t o the r i v e r banks and s h o r e l i n e s . H o s i e (1975) added t h a t the s p e c i e s i s "abundant" i n the n o r t h e r n c o a s t a l f o r e s t s of B r i t i s h C olumbia, and on the Queen C h a r l o t t e I s l a n d s where i t reaches i t s maximum development. On Vancouver I s l a n d the hemlock/spruce f o r e s t type i s most prominent on the l o w l y i n g n o r t h e r n t i p and west of H o l b e r g (Ruth and H a r r i s , 1979). South of H o l b e r g t h e s p e c i e s i s r e s t r i c t e d t o a narrow c o a s t a l s t r i p a l o n g the extreme west 1 5 c o a s t (Packee, 1976). Eastward the type grades i n t o western h e m l o c k / D o u g l a s - f i r i n response t o d r i e r c o n d i t i o n s . 2:7 P r e v a i l i n g c l i m a t i c c o n d i t i o n s . The n a t u r a l d i s t r i b u t i o n of S i t k a s p ruce i s de t e r m i n e d t o a l a r g e e x t e n t by the c l i m a t i c r e q u i r e m e n t s of the s p e c i e s . Heavy p r e c i p i t a t i o n , h i g h h u m i d i t y , abundance of dense fogs and g r a d u a l temperature changes a r e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c of c l i m a t i c c o n d i t i o n s w i t h i n the range of the s p e c i e s (Sudworth, 1908). The g e n e r a l c l i m a t e throughout the range i s m a r i t i m e , dominated by w e s t e r l y winds from the P a c i f i c Ocean, w i t h m i l d t e m p e r a t u r e s , l o n g f r o s t f r e e p e r i o d s , h i g h p r e c i p i t a t i o n , c l o u d i n e s s and absence of extreme c o l d and p r o l o n g e d summer drought (O' D r i s c o l l , 1977). Packee (1976) s t a t e d t h a t f o g i s the major d i s t i n g u i s h i n g e n v i r o n m e n t a l f a c t o r of h i s Tusga h e t e r o p h y l l a  P i c e a s i t c h e n s i s b i o g e o c l i m a t i c subzone. Frequent summer fogs a r e normal and m a i n t a i n h i g h h u m i d i t y , lower t e m p e r a t u r e s and c o n t r i b u t e t o lower m o i s t u r e d e f i c i t s , which a r e s i g n i f i c a n t l y lower i n t h i s subzone than i n o t h e r s . F r a n k l i n and Dyrness (1973) suggested t h a t f r e q u e n t f o g s and low c l o u d cover h e l p make up m o i s t u r e d e f i c i t s d u r i n g d r y p e r i o d s . H u t c h i n s o n (1940) added t h a t the r e s u l t i n g low e v a p o r a t i o n f a c t o r i s p r i m a r i l y r e s p o n s i b l e f o r d e f i n i n g the l i m i t s of the s p e c i e s . F i g u r e 2 16 i l l u s t r a t e s c h a r a c t e r i s t i c low c l o u d c o v e r and fog b e l t commonly a s s o c i a t e d w i t h S i t k a s p r u c e . F i g u r e 2. C h a r a c t e r i s t i c low c l o u d c o v e r and fog b e l t commonly a s s o c i a t e d w i t h S i t k a spruce i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia. P r e c i p i t a t i o n i s u s u a l l y i n the o r d e r of 1,250 mm per annum throughout the range and o c c u r s i n the p e r i o d September through A p r i l (0' D r i s c o l l , 1977). Annual p r e c i p i t a t i o n exceeds 4,000 mm i n many a r e a s , and exceeds 6,000 mm j u s t i n l a n d from U c l u e l e t on the west c o a s t of Vancouver I s l a n d making t h i s one of the w e t t e s t a r e a s i n N o r t h America ( S c h a e f e r , 1978). Packee (1976) s t a t e d the mean annual t o t a l p r e c i p i t a t i o n of r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s t a t i o n s i n h i s hemlock/spruce subzone does not dro p below 2,400 mm per annum. Fog d r i p g r e a t l y supplements p r e c i p i t a t i o n , w i t h up t o 25 p e r c e n t of the t o t a l p r e c i p i t a t i o n b e i n g a t t r i b u t e d t o fog d r i p (Ruth and H a r r i s , 1979). Day (1957) r e f e r r e d t o the " d r i p p i n g " c l i m a t e commonly a s s o c i a t e d w i t h S i t k a spruce as shown i n F i g u r e 3. 1 7 F i g u r e 3. C h a r a c t e r i s t i c " d r i p p i n g " on S i t k a spruce f o l i a g e i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia. Heavy p r e c i p i t a t i o n a l o n g the perhumid b e l t becomes l i g h t e r w i t h i n r e l a t i v e l y s h o r t d i s t a n c e s i n l a n d from the P a c i f i c Ocean, and t h i s i s marked w i t h a s s o c i a t e d change i n f o r e s t type ( P a t r i c , 1966). Average annual p r e c i p i t a t i o n i s c o n s i d e r a b l y lower a l o n g the e a s t and s o u t h e a s t c o a s t s of Vancouver I s l a n d as w e l l as i n the lower F r a s e r d e l t a a r e a . T h i s h e l p s e x p l a i n the s c a r c i t y of the s p e c i e s i n these a r e a s (see 2:6) . Snow i s i n f r e q u e n t but does occur o c c a s i o n a l l y from e a r l y November w e l l i n t o A p r i l i n some y e a r s . The annual s n o w f a l l d e c r e a s e s southward w i t h l e s s than 100 cm f a l l i n g i n l o w l y i n g c o a s t a l areas where m i l d c o n d i t i o n s p r e v a i l ( S c h a e f e r , 1978) . The average a n n u a l temperature i s a p p r o x i m a t e l y 10°C 18 w i t h i n the c o a s t a l range of the s p e c i e s . The mean J u l y temperature ranges from 12.8°C t o 17.5°C. Summer te m p e r a t u r e s average about 12.8°C t o 15.5°C, and the l o w e s t w i n t e r temperature ranges from -6.6°C t o -1.1°C, but such low temperatures are u s u a l l y not p e r s i s t e n t ( F o w e l l s , 1965). The low mean annual temperature range i s c h a r a c t e r i s t i c of the n a t u r a l range of S i t k a s p r u c e . C h r i s t i e and L i n e s (1979) e x p l a i n e d ".. the c o a s t of N.W. America i s washed by the s o u t h w a r d s - f l o w i n g c o o l A l a s k a c u r r e n t so t h a t t h e r e i s l i t t l e d i f f e r e n c e i n J u l y temperature on the c o a s t between p l a c e s w i d e l y s e p a r a t e d l a t i t u d i n a l l y " . Length of the growing season ranges from 300 days i n sou t h e r n Oregon t o 140 days i n A l a s k a . C h r i s t i e and L i n e s (1979) added " .. w i t h e v e r g reen c o n i f e r o u s t r e e s t h e r e i s the p o s s i b i l i t y of p h o t o s y n t h e s i s whenever the temperature r i s e s above a t h r e s h o l d v a l u e , g e n e r a l l y c o n s i d e r e d t o be about 6°C". The l e n g t h of the f r o s t - f r e e p e r i o d ranges from n i n e months t o the whole year ( F l e t c h e r , 1976), and i n c r e a s e s southward. The mean l e n g t h of the f r o s t f r e e p e r i o d exceeds 220 days on the western extremes w i t h i n the n a t u r a l range, w i t h v a l u e s d r o p p i n g s h a r p l y i n l a n d from the c o a s t . Packee (1976) brought t o l i g h t the work of Ludlow and J a r v i s (1971) who r e p o r t e d t h a t S i t k a s p ruce • e x h i b i t e d p h y s i o l o g i c a l s t r e s s w i t h a i r t e m p e r a t u r e s i n e x c e s s of 25°C. They c o n c l u d e d t h a t the optimum temperature f o r p h o t o s y n t h e s i s 19 i n the s p e c i e s i s 20°C, and t h a t a i r te m p e r a t u r e s i n e x c e s s of 25°C reduces net p h o t o s y n t h e s i s . T h i s does not imply t h a t the s p e c i e s cannot s u r v i v e r e l a t i v e l y h i g h m a r i t i m e t e m p e r a t u r e s , but s i m p l y t h a t i t i s p h o t o s y n t h e t i c a l l y l e s s e f f i c i e n t a t temper a t u r e s above 25°C. Such h i g h t e m p e r a t u r e s are i n f r e q u e n t w i t h i n the range of S i t k a spruce i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia. I n c r e a s i n g r e s e a r c h emphasis on the p h o t o s y n t h e s i s of S i t k a s p ruce i n r e c e n t y e a r s has p r o v i d e d p h y s i o l o g i c a l i n s i g h t i n t o the volume p r o d u c i n g c a p a b i l i t i e s of t h i s s p e c i e s ( N e i l s o n , Ludlow and J a r v i s , 1972; Turner and J a r v i s , 1975; F r y and P h i l l i p s , 1977). C h r i s t i e and L i n e s (1979) made a comparison of f o r e s t p r o d u c t i v i t y i n B r i t a i n and Europe i n r e l a t i o n t o c l i m a t i c f a c t o r s f o r f o u r s p e c i e s , i n c l u d i n g S i t k a s p r u c e , and added ".. t h i s s p e c i e s p h o t o s y n t h e s i s i s f a v o u r e d by c l o u d y c o n d i t i o n s and humid atmosphere such as occur f r e q u e n t l y i n n o r t h and west S c o t l a n d " . The same comment might e q u a l l y w e l l a p p l y t o c o a s t a l B r i t i s h C olumbia, S o u t h e a s t A l a s k a , and I r e l a n d . 2:8 Ocean s p r a y . A d i s t i n g u i s h i n g c h a r a c t e r i s t i c of many s i t e s s u p p o r t i n g S i t k a spruce i s the c o n t i n u a l presence of ocean s p r a y . Wade (1965) suggested t h a t the almost pure s t a n d s of S i t k a spruce a l o n g the l i p of the c o a s t a l b l u f f , between T o f i n o and U c l u e l e t , which a r e seldom more than 100 m wide, a r e r e l a t e d 20 t o the presence of ocean s p r a y . Daubenmire (1968) s t a t e d t h a t S i t k a spruce i s " h i g h l y t o l e r a n t of s a l t s p r a y , and an a g r e s s i v e i n v a d e r of bare a r e a s " . T h i s became the s u b j e c t of a d o c t o r a l d i s s e r t a t i o n (Cordes, 1972). Cordes p o i n t e d out the r e l a t i o n s h i p between the o c c u r r e n c e of S i t k a spruce and the h i g h t o l e r a n c e of the s p e c i e s f o r ocean s p r a y , and he e s t a b l i s h e d t h a t the h i g h l e v e l s of magnesium and c a l c i u m i n the s o i l were c o r r e l a t e d w i t h o c c u r r e n c e of the s p e c i e s . Magnesium and c a l c i u m i n the ocean spray enable S i t k a s p ruce t o grow i n pure s t a n d s i n v e r y narrow s t r i p s a l o n g the P a c i f i c s h o r e l i n e , because o t h e r s p e c i e s a r e i n t o l e r a n t of the presence of these elements i n the ocean spray ( K r a j i n a , 1969). Ocean s p r a y i s , t h e r e f o r e , a major e n v i r o n m e n t a l f a c t o r g o v e r n i n g the e x t e n t of pure stands of S i t k a spruce a l o n g the P a c i f i c c o a s t l i n e , as such stands have developed where ocean spray e f f e c t s are f r e q u e n t and s t r o n g . However, the s p e c i e s does not grow v e r y l u x u r i a n t l y i n these pure stands as s t r o n g p e r s i s t e n t w e s t e r l y winds damage and deform t r e e s . Packee (1976) observed t h a t the s p e c i e s t o l e r a t e s b r a c k i s h water a l o n g s h o r e l i n e ponds on Graham I s l a n d and Vancouver I s l a n d and on the margin of t i d a l a r e a s (see 3:4). K r a j i n a (1969) found good development of the s p e c i e s on a l l u v i a l p l a i n s r i c h i n c a l c i u m and magnesium, and on g l a c i a l t i l l a f f e c t e d by permanent seepage water. 21 2:9 Management i m p l i c a t i o n s . T h i s b r i e f review has emphasized the importance of e n v i r o n m e n t a l and c l i m a t i c f a c t o r s p a r t i c u l a r l y " f o g " and "ocean s p r a y " i n e x p l a i n i n g the o c c u r r e n c e of S i t k a spruce w i t h i n i t s n a t u r a l range. While S i t k a spruce i s known t o be a " l o w - e l e v a t i o n " s p e c i e s , some maps of the n a t u r a l d i s t r i b u t i o n of the s p e c i e s on Vancouver I s l a n d a r e m i s l e a d i n g as S i t k a spruce i s c o n f i n e d t o v a l l e y bottoms near t i d e water, p r i m a r i l y on the west and n o r t h c o a s t s of the I s l a n d . In f a c t the s p e c i e s does not occur over the m a j o r i t y of Vancouver I s l a n d (see 3:5). The n a t u r a l d i s t r i b u t i o n of S i t k a spruce i s g r e a t e r than the range w i t h i n which the s p e c i e s can be e c o n o m i c a l l y managed. A d e f i n i t e d i s t i n c t i o n s h o u l d be made between the n a t u r a l and economic range of the s p e c i e s . U n l e s s the w h i t e p i n e w e e v i l i s e f f e c t i v e l y c o n t r o l l e d i t i s l i k e l y t h a t b oth the n a t u r a l and economic range of S i t k a s pruce w i l l f u r t h e r d e c l i n e . 22 CHAPTER THREE. E c o l o g i c a l c l a s s i f i c a t i o n of S i t k a spruce i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia. 3:1 I n t r o d u c t i o n . The o b j e c t i v e of t h i s c h a p t e r i s t o review s e l e c t e d r e f e r e n c e s on the e c o l o g i c a l c l a s s i f i c a t i o n of S i t k a spruce i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia. K r a j i n a and h i s a s s o c i a t e s i n the f i e l d of e c o l o g i c a l c l a s s i f i c a t i o n have g r e a t l y s t r e n g t h e n e d the f o u n d a t i o n s of f o r e s t e c o l o g y p a r t i c u l a r l y i n B r i t i s h Columbia. A b r i e f s y n o p s i s of h i s c o n t r i b u t i o n i n r e l a t i o n t o S i t k a spruce ecosystems w i l l f o l l o w , i n o r d e r t o i l l u s t r a t e the e c o l o g i c a l framework w i t h i n which the s p e c i e s may be managed. 3:2 G e n e r a l e c o l o g i c a l framework. K r a j i n a (1969) used the term 'ecology' i n r e l a t i o n t o f o r e s t t r e e s t o i n c l u d e a l l c l i m a t i c , p h y s i o g r a p h i c , edaphic and b i o t i c c o n d i t i o n s under which t r e e s p e c i e s may grow. He 23 p r e s e n t e d i n f o r m a t i o n on the e c o l o g i c a l f u n c t i o n of e v e r y n a t i v e t r e e s p e c i e s i n B r i t i s h Columbia i n c l u d i n g S i t k a s p r u c e . A f t e r 20 y e a r s of r e s e a r c h K r a j i n a produced b i o g e o c l i m a t i c zones f o r the P r o v i n c e and, based upon the a u t e c o l o g i c a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of the s p e c i e s , b i o g e o c l i m a t i c z o n a l u n i t s were d e v e l o p e d . He d i v i d e d the P r o v i n c e i n t o f o u r b i o g e o c l i m a t i c f o r m a t i o n s , seven b i o g e o c l i m a t i c r e g i o n s , and e l e v e n b i o g e o c l i m a t i c zones. He f u r t h e r suggested t h a t some of these zones be s u b d i v i d e d i n t o subzones which c o u l d be c l i m a t i c a l l y , v e g e t a t i o n a l l y , and p e d o l o g i c a l l y s u b s t a n t i a t e d i n t i m e . 3:3 E c o l o g i c a l c l a s s i f i c a t i o n of ecosystems. S i t k a spruce o c c u r s i n t h r e e of the e l e v e n b i o g e o c l i m a t i c zones i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia, namely, the c o a s t a l D o u g l a s - f i r (CDF, c o a s t a l western hemlock (CWH) zone, and the mountain hemlock (MH) zone. The s p e c i e s t h r i v e s i n the former two zones but can be r e g a r d e d as i n s i g n i f i c a n t i n the l a t t e r zone. The b i o g e o c l i m a t i c u n i t s c o n t a i n i n g S i t k a spruce i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia are p r e s e n t e d i n T able 2. The P a c i f i c c o a s t a l mesothermal f o r e s t (PCMF) b i o g e o c l i m a t i c r e g i o n i s d i v i d e d i n t o the c o a s t a l D o u g l a s - f i r (CDF) and c o a s t a l western hemlock (CWH) b i o g e o c l i m a t i c zones ( K r a j i n a , 1978). 24 Table 2. B i o g e o c l i m a t i c u n i t s c o n t a i n i n g S i t k a spruce i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia, K r a j i n a (1978). Formation Region Zone Subzone Mesothermal (M) Pac i f i c C o a s t a l Mesothermal F o r e s t (PCMF) C o a s t a l Douglas-f i r (CDF) Mesothermal marine, subhumid t o humid, w i t h dry summers. Annual t o t a l p r e c i p i t a t i o n 657-1,524 mm. CDFa Annual t o t a l prec i p i t a t i o n 657-1,016mm. CDFb Annual t o t a l p rec i p i t a t i o n 1,016-1,524mm. C o a s t a l western hemlock (CWH). Mesothermal, humid t o r a i n y . Annual t o t a l p r e c i p i t a t i o n 1 , 524-6,655mm. CWHa Annual t o t a l prec i p a t i o n 1,524-2,800mm. CWHb Annual t o t a l p rec i p i t a t i o n 2,800-6,655mm. The c o a s t a l D o u g l a s - f i r (CDF) zone i s the d r i e s t mesothermal zone, and i s c o n s i d e r e d an e x c e l l e n t f o r e s t and a g r i c u l t u r a l zone. T h i s zone i s s u b d i v i d e d i n t o two b i o g e o c l i m a t i c subzones: ( i ) the d r i e r CDFa or Garr y O a k / D o u g l a s - f i r subzone. The z o n a l (mesic) s o i l s a r e B r u n i s o l . S i t k a spruce and western hemlock a r e c o n s i d e r e d r a r e i n t h i s subzone. ( i i ) the w e t t e r CDFb or M a d r o n o / D o u g l a s - f i r subzone. The z o n a l (mesic) s o i l s a r e Humo-Ferric P o d z o l . 25 S i t k a spruce i s more common and western hemlock forms the c l i m a x s p e c i e s i n s u b h y d r i c h a b i t a t s w i t h seepage water. The c o a s t a l western hemlock (CWH) b i o g e o c l i m a t i c zone i s the w e t t e s t of the mesothermal zone, and u s u a l l y has a m i l d w i n t e r and a c o o l summer. Many i m p o r t a n t c o n i f e r o u s s p e c i e s i n c l u d i n g D o u g l a s - f i r , western redcedar Thuja p i i c a t a Donn., western hemlock and S i t k a spruce among o t h e r s have t h e i r optimum growth i n t h i s zone. The c o a s t a l western hemlock (CWH) zone i s s u b d i v i d e d i n t o : ( i ) the d r i e r (humid) CWHa or D o u g l a s - f i r - w e s t e r n hemlock b i o g e o c l i m a t i c subzone. The c l i m a t i c c l i m a x z o n a l s o i l i s the Humo-Ferric P o d z o l . ( i i ) the w e t t e r (perhumid) CWHb or P a c i f i c s i l v e r f i r - w e s t e r n hemlock b i o g e o c l i m a t i c subzone. The c l i m a t i c c l i m a x z o n a l s o i l i s the Humic P o d z o l . P a c i f i c s i l v e r f i r A b i e s a m a b i l i s (Dougl.) F o r b e s , y e l l o w cedar Chamaecyparis n o o t k a t e n s i s (D. Don) Spach, western hemlock and S i t k a spruce a l l grow e x c e p t i o n a l l y w e l l i n t h i s subzone. The s u b d i v i s i o n of thes e two b i o g e o c l i m a t i c subzones 26 of the c o a s t a l western hemlock (CWH) zone i s d i s t i n c t i n the southern p a r t s of c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia. The s u b z o n a l d i v i s i o n i n the n o r t h e r n p a r t of the zone i s c u r r e n t l y under i n v e s t i g a t i o n by the B r i t i s h Columbia M i n i s t r y of F o r e s t s which has adopted K r a j i n a ' s system of e c o l o g i c a l c l a s s i f i c a t i o n of f o r e s t ecosystems. The M i n i s t r y of F o r e s t s (1979) r e p o r t e d t h a t the system has been extended t o the n o r t h e r n wet c o a s t a l a r e a s of the B r i t i s h Columbia m a i n l a n d and the Queen C h a r l o t t e I s l a n d s . A new b i o g e o c l i m a t i c zone d i s t i n c t from the c o a s t a l western hemlock (CWH) zone has been proposed. T h i s i s based on the dominant s o i l f o r m i n g p r o c e s s e s of the r e g i o n which r e s u l t i n the f o r m a t i o n of o r g a n i c s o i l s and e x t e n s i v e bogs. The proposed name f o r t h i s new b i o g e o c l i m a t i c zone i s the " n o r t h c o a s t cedar hemlock (NCCH) zone", and i t i s c h a r a c t e r i z e d by h a v i n g p r o d u c t i v e s i t e s r e s t r i c t e d t o s t e e p s l o p e s , c o a r s e c o l l u v i u m or young s o i l s . I t has been s t a t e d t h a t the e x t e n s i v e bogs r e f e r r e d t o above "have l i m i t e d v a l u e f o r commercial f o r e s t r y " , however, the o p p o s i t e has been proven t o be the case i n the i n t e n s i v e l y managed S i t k a spruce p l a n t a t i o n s of Great B r i t a i n and I r e l a n d (see 10:2:1). 3:4 E d a t o p i c g r i d s f o r S i t k a s p r u c e . The use of e d a t o p i c g r i d s t o e x p r e s s the e c o l o g i c a l f u n c t i o n of p l a n t s was f i r s t s uggested by Pogrebnyak (1930) and s u b s e q u e n t l y m o d i f i e d by Anderson (1950) and K r a j i n a (1969). The 27 e d a t o p i c g r i d m a t r i x i s d e r i v e d from two major s o i l g r a d i e n t s ; m o i s t u r e g r a d i e n t or hygrotope w i t h n i n e c l a s s e s numbered z e r o through e i g h t , and n u t r i e n t g r a d i e n t o r t r o p h o t o p e w i t h s i x c l a s s e s l e t t e r e d A through F. The n i n e h y g r o t o p e s range from v e r y x e r i c or e x c e s s i v e l y d r a i n e d t o s u b x e r i c or v e r y p o o r l y d r a i n e d . S i m i l a r l y the s i x t r o p h o t o p e s range from o l i g o t r o p h i c or v e r y poor t o h y p e r e u t r o p h i c or v e r y r i c h . The hygrotopes and t r o p h o t o p e s attempt t o s i g n i f y on a r e l a t i v e s c a l e the a v a i l a b l e m o i s t u r e and n u t r i e n t s u p p l y r e s p e c t i v e l y f o r p l a n t growth. The e n t i r e e d a t o p i c g r i d c o n t a i n s 54 edatopes, however, the h y p e r e u t r o p h i c t r o p h o t o p e s (F) o n l y a p p l y to S i t k a s p r u c e , which can o c c u r i n s l i g h t l y s a l i n e s o i l s under the e f f e c t of b r a c k i s h t i d a l w a t e r s . For a l l o t h e r s p e c i e s o n l y 45 of the p o s s i b l e 54 edatopes are used t o e x p r e s s the e c o l o g i c a l f u n c t i o n and growth c l a s s e s . Table 3 shows the e d a t o p i c g r i d m a t r i c e s f o r S i t k a spruce i n the t h r e e b i o g e o c l i m a t i c subzones p r e v i o u s l y d e s c r i b e d . Each edatope can be d e s i g n a t e d by a c o m b i n a t i o n of the two s o i l g r a d i e n t s , e.g. edatope 0/A r e f e r s t o e x t r e m e l y d r y , n u t r i t i o n a l l y i m p o v e r i s h e d s o i l s . As can be seen from Table 3 S i t k a spruce i s p r i m a r i l y c o n f i n e d t o the w e t t e r , r i c h e r edatopes i n each b i o g e o c l i m a t i c subzone. 28 T a b l e 3. E d a t o p i c g r i d s f o r S i t k a s pruce i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h C olumbia, K r a j i n a (1969). CIH b cm > r u n i H c k i K i i i cor b t i c B c H r • * • M X X * V • • * .<< X X M * M « n • ^  • M M w / / ' / o • I • • y s V / •< X M 1 / » / / /-/•/ • ® 1 y / ' V r X H /•/ /V /» / ,< X 1' / / 1 , I X: / V " V X n f — h [ 11 /'» •1 ft x; 1 n 1 1 e \ © —H ,® v5 f  U / * t — A — X n V \« \ X \ . \" X: ^- ^ 3:5 Packee's e c o l o g i c a l c l a s s i f i c a t i o n . Packee's Tsuga h e t e r o p h y l l a P i c e a s i t c h e n s i s zone i s synonymous w i t h the f o g western h e m l o c k - S i t k a spruce b i o g e o c l i m a t i c subzone of K r a j i n a (1969), and i s a l s o e q u i v a l e n t t o the P i c e a s i t c h e n s i s zone d e s c r i b e d by F r a n k l i n and Dyrness (1973) i n the P a c i f i c N orthwest. Packee (1976) s t a t e d t h a t S i t k a s p r u c e i s the major d i s t i n g u i s h i n g c h a r a c t e r i s t i c of t h i s zone, both as a minor c l i m a x s p e c i e s and as a major s e r a i s p e c i e s . The f o g western h e m l o c k - S i t k a s p r u c e b i o g e o c l i m a t i c zone (Packee, 1972) b e t t e r d e l i n e a t e s the a c t u a l o c c u r r e n c e of S i t k a spruce on Vancouver I s l a n d than most maps of the n a t u r a l d i s t r i b u t i o n of S i t k a s pruce (see 2:4). The s p e c i e s i s more f r e q u e n t l y a 29 component i n the e a r l y s u c c e s s i o n a l s t a g e s of the f o r e s t than i n the c l i m a x ( P h e l p s , 1973), and u s u a l l y remains a secondary s p e c i e s mixed w i t h western hemlock and western re d c e d a r and i s t h e r e f o r e r e g a r d e d as a s u b c l i m a x s p e c i e s (Falkenhagen, 1974). 3:6 Management i m p l i c a t i o n s . T h i s b r i e f r e view of s e l e c t e d r e f e r e n c e s on the e c o l o g i c a l c l a s s i f i c a t i o n of S i t k a spruce w i t h p a r t i c u l a r r e f e r e n c e t o c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia has summarized the e c o l o g i c a l framework w i t h i n which the s p e c i e s can be managed. K l i n k a (1977) produced g u i d e l i n e s f o r b r o a d c a s t b u r n i n g and t r e e s p e c i e s s e l e c t i o n i n the Vancouver F o r e s t R e g i o n . These g u i d e l i n e s , based on the e d a t o p i c g r i d system, a r e the f i r s t s t e p i n p r o v i d i n g a sound e c o l o g i c a l b a s i s f o r i n t e n s i v e f o r e s t management i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia (see 5:3 and 5:5). 30 CHAPTER FOUR. Impact of the whi t e p i n e w e e v i l on the management of S i t k a spruce i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia. 4:1 I n t r o d u c t i o n . The o b j e c t i v e of t h i s c h a p t e r i s t o e v a l u a t e the impact of the whi t e p i n e w e e v i l on the management of S i t k a spruce i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia. The white p i n e w e e v i l i s the major l i m i t i n g f a c t o r g o v e r n i n g the economic management of young n a t u r a l l y r e g e n e r a t e d s t a n d s and p l a n t a t i o n s of S i t k a spruce i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia and the P a c i f i c Northwest. Wright (1960) d e s c r i b e d the w h i t e p i n e w e e v i l as "the most s e r i o u s i n s e c t p e s t of young S i t k a spruce throughout i t s n a t u r a l range". 4:2 Nature of the damage. The damage caused by the whi t e p i n e w e e v i l t o young S i t k a spruce has been d e s c r i b e d ( W r i g h t , 1960; S i l v e r , 1968; McMullen, 1976; F u r n i s s and C a r o l i n , 1977). The genus P i s s o d e s 31 a t t a c k s t e r m i n a l s of young p i n e s and spruce from c o a s t t o c o a s t . The w h i t e p i n e w e e v i l a t t a c k s and k i l l s o n e - y e a r - o l d S i t k a spruce l e a d e r s . The f i r s t s i g n of damage i s the c h a r a c t e r i s t i c " d r o o p i n g " or w i l t i n g of new spruce s h o o t s . Damage o f t e n r e s u l t s i n m u l t i p l e , f o r k e d or cr o o k e d stems, l o s s of h e i g h t growth and g e n e r a l b u s h i n e s s . White p i n e w e e v i l damage appears t o be c o n f i n e d t o t r e e s 3 t o 20 cm i n d i a m e t e r , 1.5 t o 8.0 m t a l l and from 8 t o 30 y e a r s of age. Repeated a t t a c k s r e s u l t i n any a s s o c i a t e d t r e e s p e c i e s assuming dominance w i t h i n the s t a n d and t h i s can l e a d t o the u l t i m a t e e x c l u s i o n of S i t k a s p r u c e . F i g u r e 4 shows t y p i c a l l e a d e r damage r e s u l t i n g from c o n t i n u e d w h i t e p i n e w e e v i l a t t a c k . F i g u r e 4. T y p i c a l l e a d e r damage r e s u l t i n g from c o n t i n u e d w h i t e p i n e w e e v i l a t t a c k . 32 4:3 L o c a t i o n of w h i t e p i n e w e e v i l damage. Wright (1960) s t a t e d t h a t the h e a v i e s t damage o c c u r s i n l a r g e , even-aged p l a n t a t i o n s l o c a t e d between 16 and 40 km from the ocean near the e a s t e r n edge of the spruce range. O v e r h u l s e r et. a l ..*,..( 1975) i n d i c a t e d t h a t a t t a c k was min i m a l w i t h i n the fog zone, and r e p o r t e d t h a t damage i n c r e a s e d f a r t h e r i n l a n d on p o o r l y d r a i n e d s o i l s , on t r e e s p l a n t e d on d i s t u r b e d s o i l or f i l l a l o n g r o a d s i d e s and on e a s t and s o u t h e a s t e xposures. McMullen (1976) r e p o r t e d damage i n the Nimpkish Lake area and S i l v e r (1968) r e f e r r e d t o damage i n the N i t i n a t V a l l e y and near K i t i m a t . In 1978 the a u t h o r o b s e r v e d severe damage i n s e v e r a l l o c a t i o n s i n c l u d i n g Haney, G o l d R i v e r , and i n a T w i n r i v e r Timber L t d spruce p l a n t a t i o n between T e r r a c e and Kalum Lake. Wright ( i 9 6 0 ) d e s c r i b e d the d i s t r i b u t i o n of the w h i t e p i n e w e e v i l , which c o i n c i d e s t o a remarkable degree w i t h the n a t u r a l d i s t r i b u t i o n of S i t k a spruce except f o r the Queen C h a r l o t t e I s l a n d s and s o u t h e a s t A l a s k a . McMullen (1976) suggested t h a t temperature may be an i m p o r t a n t f a c t o r i n d e t e r m i n i n g a r e a s of low r i s k of w e e v i l damage. He demonstrated t h a t accumulated heat i s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h w e e v i l damage and con c l u d e d t h a t the s p e c i e s c o u l d be p l a n t e d on Vancouver I s l a n d i n areas where the accumulated heat i s l e s s than 888 degree days above 7.6°C (1,600 degree days above 45°F) w i t h l i t t l e r i s k of s e r i o u s damage. A map showing low w e e v i l h a z a r d a r e a s on 33 Vancouver I s l a n d (McMullen, 1976) i s p r e s e n t e d i n F i g u r e 5, and c o i n c i d e s r o u g h l y w i t h the fog western h e m l o c k - S i t k a spruce zone d e s c r i b e d by Packee (1972). F i g u r e 5. Low w h i t e p i n e w e e v i l h a z a r d a r e a s on Vancouver I s l a n d , McMullen (1976). Heavy a t t a c k s of spruce p l a n t a t i o n s a t Head Bay, Conuma R i v e r , and Plumper Harbour have been r e p o r t e d by Senko (1979). S u r p r i s i n g l y the Upper G o l d R i v e r V a l l e y i n l a n d S i t k a spruce p l a n t a t i o n s a r e r e p o r t e d t o be " i n s e c t f r e e " a l t h o u g h they were p l a n t e d between 1967 and 1970 and range from 3 t o 7 m i n h e i g h t . Damage appears t o be i n c r e a s i n g and expanding i n the P o r t H a r d y / P o r t M c N e i l l a r e a (Handley, 1979). I n c i d e n c e of w h i t e p i n e w e e v i l damage has a l s o been r e p o r t e d i n p a r t s of the Nimpkish V a l l e y (Cochrane, 1979). 34 Only minor i n f e s t a t i o n s , which have no impact on the management of the s p e c i e s have been r e p o r t e d from Western F o r e s t P r o d u c t s L t d spruce p l a n t a t i o n s on N o r t h e r n Vancouver I s l a n d (Hansen, 1979). No r e p o r t s of w h i t e p i n e w e e v i l damage on the Queen C h a r l o t t e I s l a n d s have been found i n the l i t e r a t u r e . 4:4 Impact on management. S u c c e s s f u l r e g e n e r a t i o n of S i t k a spruce i s g r e a t l y l i m i t e d by the presence of the w h i t e p i n e w e e v i l on many former, h i g h l y p r o d u c t i v e , spruce s i t e s . The apparent i n c r e a s e i n i n f e s t a t i o n both i n numbers and ex p a n s i o n i n t o a r e a s p r e v i o u s l y thought s a f e has d e f i n i t e l y become a d e t e r r e n t t o c o n s i d e r a t i o n of the s p e c i e s (Handley, 1979). One f o r e s t company has d i s c o n t i n u e d the e s t a b l i s h m e n t of pure S i t k a spruce p l a n t a t i o n s due t o the c o n t i n u e d spread of the i n s e c t (Rasmussen, 1978). The g r e a t e s t impact of the w h i t e p i n e w e e v i l on management of the s p e c i e s i s the avo i d a n c e of the s p e c i e s i n r e f o r e s t a t i o n programs throughout a v e r y l a r g e p a r t of the n a t u r a l range of the s p e c i e s . Other management i m p l i c a t i o n s a r e : 1. Management of S i t k a spruce i s c o n f i n e d t o a r e a s u n a f f e c t e d by the w h i t e p i n e w e e v i l . 2. Performance of S i t k a spruce n a t u r a l l y r e g e n e r a t e d 35 stands and p l a n t a t i o n s i n the s o u t h e r n p a r t of i t s n a t u r a l range has been a d v e r s e l y a f f e c t e d . 3. F u t u r e p o t e n t i a l y i e l d s of t h i s v a l u a b l e s p e c i e s are reduced. 4. S i t k a spruce provenance t r i a l s e s t a b l i s h e d by the M i n i s t r y of F o r e s t s throughout the h i g h hazard w e e v i l damage ar e a s a r e i n g r e a t danger of b e i n g a t t a c k e d . 5. The gene p o o l of the most h i g h l y p r o d u c t i v e provenances i n the s o u t h e r n p a r t of the n a t u r a l range of S i t k a spruce i s d i m i n i s h i n g . H a r r i s (1978) s t a t e d " s u s c e p t i b i l i t y t o damage by the w e e v i l has been the most s e r i o u s d e t e r r e n t t o management of S i t k a spruce i n the s o u t h e r n p a r t of i t s range .... S i t k a spruce would d o u b t l e s s be much more e x t e n s i v e l y p l a n t e d w i t h i n the s o u t h e r n p a r t of i t s range i f a s o l u t i o n t o the w e e v i l problem c o u l d be found". He c a l l e d f o r immediate r e s e a r c h on c o n t r o l of t h i s most s e r i o u s p e s t of S i t k a s p r u c e . There a l s o e x i s t s an immediate need f o r gene p o o l c o n s e r v a t i o n of the s p e c i e s (see 6:3) . Management of S i t k a spruce i n western Europe, where i t 36 has become the mainstay of s e v e r a l n a t i o n a l a f f o r e s t a t i o n programs n o t a b l y those of Great B r i t a i n and I r e l a n d , c o u l d be s e r i o u s l y t h r e a t e n e d by the i n t r o d u c t i o n of the whi t e p i n e w e e v i l . Extreme c a r e s h o u l d be taken t o p r e v e n t the i n t r o d u c t i o n of the i n s e c t i n t o western Europe, a l t h o u g h the p o s s i b i l i t y of such an i n t r o d u c t i o n i s remote g i v e n the s t r i c t p h y t o s a n i t a r y r e g u l a t i o n s i n Europe (de B r i t and McAree, 1977). 4:5 C o n t r o l of the w h i t e p i n e w e e v i l . P h e l p s (1973) s t a t e d " u n t i l t h i s i n s e c t can be e f f e c t i v e l y and e c o n o m i c a l l y c o n t r o l l e d , the e s t a b l i s h m e n t of S i t k a spruce p l a n t a t i o n s i s q u e s t i o n a b l e except on the Queen C h a r l o t t e I s l a n d s " . P o s s i b i l i t i e s e x i s t f o r e f f e c t i v e economic c o n t r o l of t h i s s e r i o u s i n s e c t p e s t and the s e a re o u t l i n e d below. 4:5:1 B i o l o g i c a l c o n t r o l . F u r n i s s and C a r o l i n (1977) r e f e r r e d t o a p u b l i c a t i o n by Evans and Dyer (1952) which s t a t e d t h a t s p e c i e s of Lonchaea are o f t e n found i n the g a l l e r i e s made by the w h i t e p i n e w e e v i l . The most i m p o r t a n t i n s e c t enemy of the w e e v i l i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia i s the d i p t e r o u s predaceous f l y Lonchaea c e r t i c i s 37 T a y l o r , the l a r v a e of which c o n g r e g r a t e i n g r e a t numbers i n the w e e v i l mines and p u p a l chambers. Graham (1979) suggested t h a t i f t h i s i n s e c t p r e d a t o r c o u l d be produced a r t i f i c i a l l y i n g r e a t numbers, and r e l e a s e d i n t o h i g h h a z a r d a r e a s , w e e v i l damage c o u l d be reduced and p o s s i b l y c o n t r o l l e d . McLean (1979) p o i n t e d out " t h i s i n s e c t a t t a c k s the w h i t e p i n e w e e v i l a f t e r i t has done i t s damage. I t w i l l p r e v e n t the b u i l d u p of l a r g e numbers of a d u l t s but one o v i p o s i t i n g female i s a l l t h a t i s r e q u i r e d t o d e s t r o y a l e a d e r " . Wright ( i 9 6 0 ) s t a t e d t h a t an "unknown d i s e a s e " has o c c a s i o n a l l y wiped out e n t i r e broods of l a r v a e , and he s u s p e c t e d the c a u s a l agent t o be a v i r u s . V i r a l c o n t r o l of i n s e c t p e s t s i s becoming more common, however, no r e f e r e n c e has been found i n the l i t e r a t u r e t o v i r a l c o n t r o l of the w h i t e p i n e w e e v i l . 4:5:2 Chemical c o n t r o l . T e s t s of r e p e a t e d hand s p r a y i n g of t e r m i n a l branches w i t h aqueous s o l u t i o n s of 5 p e r c e n t DDT, and 1 p e r c e n t and 5 p e r c e n t phosphamidon i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia have proven a s a t i s f a c t o r y means of c o n t r o l l i n g the i n s e c t ( S i l v e r , 1968). E f f e c t i v e e c o n o m i c a l a e r i a l a p p l i c a t i o n s of t h e s e f o r m u l a t i o n s may be a p r a c t i c a l s o l u t i o n , however, a p p l i c a t i o n s p r o b a b l y would meet w i t h s t r o n g o p p o s i t i o n from e n v i r o n m e n t a l groups. In the P a c i f i c N o r t h w e s t , t e s t s w i t h s y s t e m i c and 38 c o n t a c t i n s e c t i c i d e s combined w i t h a slow r e l e a s e agent have shown promise as a means of c o n t r o l (Crown Z e l l e r b a c h , 1978). The use of s y s t e m i c i n s e c t i c i d e s may reduce the r i s k of p e s t i c i d e overdose and e n v i r o n m e n t a l h a z a r d s , w h i l e e f f e c t i v e l y c o n t r o l l i n g the t a r g e t p e s t . The c h e m i c a l s t e s t e d were Meta-Sys t o x R and Reldan both of which were a p p l i e d by hand. A N e l d e r P l o t p l a n t e d i n March 1966 a t the U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h Columbia Research F o r e s t a t Haney w i t h f o u r c o n i f e r o u s s p e c i e s i n c l u d i n g 2+2 S i t k a spruce was d e s i g n e d t o examine the s p e c i e s t o s p e c i e s i n t e r a c t i o n s w i t h s p a c i n g w i t h i n and between s p e c i e s . Severe w e e v i l damage w i t h i n N e l d e r P l o t (#2) has been r e p o r t e d ( W a l t e r s and Sm i t h , 1973). In 1974, the P a c i f i c F o r e s t Research Centre o r g a n i z e d the a p p l i c a t i o n of 6 pe r c e n t m ethoxychlor on the S i t k a s p r u c e , but t h i s d i d not prove t o be e f f e c t i v e . Two f u r t h e r a p p l i c a t i o n s were a p p l i e d i n 1975 and 1976 t o the so u t h e r n s e c t o r of t h i s N e l d e r P l o t . Damage was r e p o r t e d on 5.1 pe r c e n t of the spr a y e d t r e e s and on 18.6 p e r c e n t of the unsprayed t r e e s (McMullen, 1977). McLean (1979) r e p o r t e d t h a t the two so u t h e r n a r c s of Ne l d e r P l o t (#2) were t r e a t e d w i t h Cygon 2E i n 1978. In Ja n u a r y 1979 t h r e e l e a d e r s were r e p o r t e d a t t a c k e d i n the t r e a t e d a r e a s and 26 l e a d e r s a t t a c k e d i n the u n t r e a t e d a r e a s . "In March 1980, a f t e r a f u r t h e r stem a p p l i c a t i o n of Cygon 2E i n 1979, t h e r e was an equal i n c i d e n c e of a t t a c k by the w h i t e p i n e w e e v i l on t r e a t e d and u n t r e a t e d a r e a s . I t appears t h a t t h a t Cygon 2E, a p p l i e d 39 d i r e c t l y t o the t r u n k , d i d not s u s t a i n the p r o t e c t i o n o b t a i n e d w i t h M e t h o x y c h l o r i n 1974-76" (McLean, 1979). 4:5:3 G e n e t i c c o n t r o l . In the e a r l y 1930's pure S i t k a spruce and mixed D o u g l a s - f i r S i t k a spruce e x p e r i m e n t a l stands were e s t a b l i s h e d a t the M i n i s t r y of F o r e s t s n u r s e r y i n S u r r e y ( B r i t i s h Columbia F o r e s t S e r v i c e , 1943). When examined i n 1978, few of the o r i g i n a l S i t k a spruce t r e e s remained due t o widesp r e a d w e e v i l damage. The M i n i s t r y of F o r e s t s (1979) r e p o r t e d t h a t f o r two decades t h r e e i n d i v i d u a l spruce t r e e s from t h e s e s t a n d s have " c o n s i s t e n t l y escaped damage". Use of c l o n e s from these t r e e s has r a i s e d hopes f o r g e n e t i c a l l y c o n t r o l l e d r e s i s t a n c e t o the weevi1. The M i n i s t r y of F o r e s t s (1979) r e p o r t e d t h a t i n 1976 some 500 o p e n - p o l l i n a t e d f a m i l i e s from 38 provenances were p l a n t e d i n two randomized b l o c k s on a logged-over s i t e i n the Salmon V a l l e y near K e l s e y Bay on the n o r t h e a s t c o a s t of Vancouver I s l a n d . N a t u r a l l y r e g e n e r a t e d w e e v i l e d S i t k a spruce a t t e s t t o the very h i g h w e e v i l a c t i v i t y i n the a r e a . The o b j e c t i v e of t h i s t r i a l was t o s c r e e n f a m i l i e s f o r p u t a t i v e r e s i s t a n c e t o the w e e v i l . In March 1979, an e x a m i n a t i o n r e v e a l e d t h a t the f i r s t severe a t t a c k had o c c u r r e d on the e i g h t - y e a r - o l d t r e e s . I t was noted how f a m i l i e s d i f f e r e d markedly i n the degree 40 t o which they had s u s t a i n e d i n j u r y . A 1 5 - y e a r - o l d t r i a l i n Oregon has shown t h a t the n a t u r a l h y b r i d of S i t k a spruce and w h i t e spruce P i c e a g l a u c a (Moench) Voss. i s r e s i s t a n t t o w e e v i l a t t a c k and i t was suggested t h a t t h i s L u t z spruce may be the most p r o m i s i n g replacement f o r h e a v i l y w e e v i l e d spruce s i t e s ( M i t c h e l l e t a l . 1979) . 4:5:4 S i l v i c u l t u r a l c o n t r o l . Avoidance of h i g h w e e v i l h a z a r d a r e a s c o u l d be r e g a r d e d as a p o s s i b l e s i l v i c u l t u r a l c o n t r o l , and McMullen (1976) has produced a map showing the low w e e v i l h a z a r d a r e a s on Vancouver I s l a n d (see F i g u r e 5 ) . An i n t e r e s t i n g s i x - y e a r - o l d p l a n t a t i o n of S i t k a s pruce on P a c i f i c F o r e s t P r o d u c t s Company L t d f o r e s t l a n d a t Cowichan Lake suggests a n o t h e r p o s s i b l e s i l v i c u l t u r a l c o n t r o l of the w h i t e p i n e w e e v i l . There i s the p o s s i b i l i t y of p l a n t i n g the S i t k a spruce w i t h a nurse c r o p and then s l o w l y r e l e a s i n g the S i t k a spruce a f t e r the t r e e s a r e no l o n g e r s u s c e p t i b l e t o a t t a c k . I t has been suggested t h a t red a l d e r might be the most s u i t a b l e nurse t r e e , because of i t s r a p i d growth r a t e and i t s n i t r o g e n f i x i n g p r o p e r t i e s . McLean (1979) s t a t e d t h a t t h i s 41 method of c o n t r o l i s c e r t a i n l y worth f u r t h e r i n v e s t i g a t i o n i n a r e a s of h i g h w e e v i l h a z a r d . The t en h e c t a r e s t a n d was logged i n the l a t e 1920's and a l l o w e d t o r e g e n e r a t e n a t u r a l l y ( K o r e l u s , 1978). In 1977 the e s t i m a t e d s t o c k i n g was 420 stems per h e c t a r e and the s p e c i e s c o m p o s i t i o n was 66 p e r c e n t b l a c k cottonwood Populus t r i c h o c a r p a Tory and Gray, 18 p e r c e n t b r o a d l e a f maple Acer macrophyllum P u r s h , 13 p e r c e n t D o u g l a s - f i r and 3 p e r c e n t red a l d e r A l n u s  r u b r a Bong. The e s t i m a t e d average age was 41 y e a r s and volume per h e c t a r e was 619 m 3/ha. T h i s s t a n d was c h e m i c a l l y t h i n n e d t o reduce shade by 50 p e r c e n t b e f o r e u n d e r p l a n t i n g w i t h 1+2 D o u g l a s - f i r i n the s p r i n g of 1972. T h i s p l a n t i n g f a i l e d and the a r e a was a g a i n u n d e r p l a n t e d i n S p r i n g 1975 w i t h 2+1 b a r e r o o t S i t k a spruce s t o c k at 1,240 stems per h e c t a r e . S u r v i v a l i n 1975 was 98 p e r c e n t and 66 p e r c e n t i n 1976. The s i t e i s l o c a t e d i n a h i g h w e e v i l h a z a r d a r e a , y e t as of 1978 t h e r e was no e v i d e n c e of w e e v i l damage on any of the s p r u c e . T h i s s h e l t e r w o o d s t a n d was sampled i n 1978 and Table 4 c o n t a i n s a summary of 61 sample p l o t s measured. 42 T a b l e 4. Data summary of s i x - y e a r - o l d S i t k a s pruce a t Cowichan Lake, B.C., n = 61. V a r i a b l e Minimum Maximum Mean St dev. Root c o l l a r (cm) 0.3 1 .5 0.8 0.2 T o t a l h e i g h t (m) 0.4 1 .4 0.9 0.2 Crown w i d t h (m) 0.2 0.8 0.6 0.2 E x a m i n a t i o n of the h e i g h t d a t a may h e l p t o e x p l a i n why the spruce have not yet been a t t a c k e d (see 4:2). Should the spruce remain u n w e e v i l e d when they r e a c h the h e i g h t range a t which they are r e p o r t e d t o be most s u s c e p t i b l e , then t h i s may suggest t h a t the e s t a b l i s h m e n t of spruce under a nurse c r o p i s worth c o n s i d e r a t i o n , however, a t p r e s e n t t h i s u n w e e v i l e d u n d e r p l a n t e d spruce i s i n s u f f i c i e n t e v i d e n c e t o undertake f u r t h e r i n v e s t i g a t i o n . 4:5:5 I n t e g r a t e d c o n t r o l . In the P a c i f i c N o r t h w e s t , Crown Z e l l e r b a c h i n c o o p e r a t i o n w i t h the U n i v e r s i t y of Washington has been i n v o l v e d w i t h the development of an i n t e g r a t e d program t o c o n t r o l w h i t e p i n e w e e v i l damage. Attempts a t i n t e g r a t i o n of c h e m i c a l and s i l v i c u l t u r a l c o n t r o l are planned (Crown Z e l l e r b a c h , 1978). 43 4:6 Management i m p l i c a t i o n s . Without the f i n a n c i a l commitment of f e d e r a l , p r o v i n c i a l , s t a t e and i n d u s t r i a l f o r e s t o r g a n i z a t i o n s t o c o n t r o l w e e v i l damage, management of t h i s h i g h l y p r o d u c t i v e s p e c i e s w i l l be f e a s i b l e o n l y i n a r e a s f r e e from w h i t e p i n e w e e v i l damage, which i s a p p r o x i m a t e l y l e s s than h a l f of the n a t u r a l range i n c o a s t a l . B r i t i s h Columbia. T h e r e f o r e economic management of S i t k a spruce on a l a r g e s c a l e i s f e a s i b l e o n l y i n the P r i n c e Rupert F o r e s t Region (PRFR) u n t i l such time as the w h i t e p i n e w e e v i l has been c o n t r o l l e d . 44 CHAPTER FIVE. Management of S i t k a spruce i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia. 5:1 Management i n p e r s p e c t i v e . In the past the main o b j e c t i v e of t i m b e r h a r v e s t i n g i n the c o a s t a l spruce f o r e s t s of B r i t i s h Columbia was t o "cut and get out" and t o maximize the economic r e t u r n i n the p r o c e s s . E x t e n s i v e a r e a s of prime spruce/hemlock f o r e s t s have been logged by A-frame i n t o the water. Given the n a t u r e of the o l d growth r e s o u r c e t h i s h a r v e s t i n g s t r a t e g y was a p p r o p r i a t e i n the e a r l y days of l o g g i n g i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h C olumbia. Thus, the m a j o r i t y of the o l d growth S i t k a s pruce i s gone, and what remains are v i g o r o u s n a t u r a l l y r e g e n e r a t e d , unmanaged sta n d s of immature S i t k a spruce mixed w i t h w e s t e r n hemlock and o t h e r c o n i f e r o u s and b r o a d l e a v e d s p e c i e s . P r i o r t o 1960, most c u t - o v e r a r e a s were not a r t i f i c a l l y r e s t o c k e d but a l l o w e d t o r e g e n e r a t e n a t u r a l l y , and t h e s e stands have r e c e i v e d l i t t l e or no f o r e s t management o t h e r than f i r e c o n t r o l . S i n c e 1960, many c u t - o v e r a r e a s i n the c o a s t a l hemlock/spruce f o r e s t s , where n a t u r a l r e g e n e r a t i o n was c o n s i d e r e d i m p r a c t i c a l , have been a r t i f i c i a l l y r e s t o c k e d w i t h n u r s e r y grown b a r e r o o t or c o n t a i n e r grown s t o c k . T h i s was the 45 b e g i n n i n g of f o r e s t management i n the spruce/hemlock f o r e s t s of c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia. Management of the s p e c i e s has improved over the pa s t two decades, and a s y n o p s i s of i n d i v i d u a l f o r e s t management p r a c t i c e s as they p e r t a i n t o S i t k a s pruce w i l l be p r e s e n t e d i n t h i s c h a p t e r . A q u e s t i o n n a i r e was sent t o seven f o r e s t o r g a n i z a t i o n s c u r r e n t l y i n v o l v e d i n the management of S i t k a s pruce r e q u e s t i n g i n f o r m a t i o n on the f o l l o w i n g : 1. Method of s p e c i e s s e l e c t i o n and s i t e p r e p a r a t i o n used. 2. Annual p l a n t i n g program of pure S i t k a spruce and pe r c e n t of t o t a l . 3. S u r v i v a l and performance of S i t k a spruce p l a n t a t i o n s . 4. Annual j u v e n i l e s p a c i n g , f e r t i l i z a t i o n and commercial t h i n n i n g programs. 5. Occurrence and impact of the w h i t e p i n e w e e v i l on management. 6. E s t i m a t e s of p r o d u c t i v i t y of the s p e c i e s . 7. Annual volume of S i t k a spruce c u t and p e r c e n t a g e of t o t a l . F i v e of the seven o r g a n i z a t i o n s responded t o the q u e s t i o n n a i r e and d e t a i l s w i l l be p r e s e n t e d i n the a p p r o p r i a t e s e c t i o n s . 46 5:2 C u r r e n t management. The o b j e c t i v e of t h i s c h a p t e r i s t o e v a l u a t e c u r r e n t management of n a t u r a l l y r e g e n e r a t e d stands and p l a n t a t i o n s of S i t k a spruce i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia. The f o l l o w i n g i s a s y s t e m a t i c o u t l i n e of what management p r a c t i c e s a re b e i n g a p p l i e d t o n a t u r a l l y r e g e n e r a t e d s t a n d s and p l a n t a t i o n s of the s p e c i e s . T a b l e 1 p r e s e n t e d the f o r e s t o r g a n i z a t i o n s v i s i t e d and the management a c t i v i t i e s o b served i n S i t k a spruce stands throughout the P r o v i n c e i n 1978. T h i s i t i n e r a r y p l u s the q u e s t i o n n a i r e r e f e r r e d t o e a r l i e r p r o v i d e the b a s i s f o r the remainder of t h i s c h a p t e r . 5:3 Tree s p e c i e s s e l e c t i o n . K r a j i n a ' s e d a t o p i c g r i d m a t r i c e s f o r S i t k a spruce were o u t l i n e d and i l l u s t r a t e d i n T a b l e 3 (see 3:3). K l i n k a (1977) produced g u i d e l i n e s f o r the s e l e c t i o n of t r e e s p e c i e s f o r c u t -over a r e a s i n the Vancouver F o r e s t Region based on the e d a t o p i c g r i d system and these a r e p r e s e n t e d i n F i g u r e 6. The f o l l o w i n g s t e p s were recommended: 1. I d e n t i f y the b i o g e o c l i m a t i c subzone i n which the s i t e i s l o c a t e d . 47 2. S e l e c t the a p p r o p r i a t e t a b l e f o r the r e l e v a n t b i o g e o c l i m a t i c subzone from h i s handbook, e.g. F i g u r e 6. 3. A s s e s s the s o i l m o i s t u r e and n u t r i e n t regime on the ground u s i n g e n v i r o n m e n t a l f e a t u r e s and major p l a n t i n d i c a t o r s p e c i e s . 4. S e l e c t the a p p r o p r i a t e e d a t o p i c s u b d i v i s i o n from the t a b l e p r e v i o u s l y chosen and d e c i d e which of the recommended s p e c i e s t o p l a n t i n the a r e a i n q u e s t i o n . 48 F i g u r e 6. Guide t o s e l e c t i o n of t r e e s p e c i e s i n the Vancouver F o r e s t Region, K l i n k a (1977). subzone/variation: CWHxb-s, Submontane amabilis fir - western hemlock V t r y »eric (Excessively drained) Xe-:c lien 'sDidly drained) Su:>£- r (R- jp icv Drained! Sabrr.isic iWeli :rained) Mesic (Moderately well drained) Subhy:nc (Impe^ ecily drained) Hygric IPoorly drained) Subhyflnc (Very ooorly drained) Oligotrophic (Very poor) A Submesotrophic (Poor) B SOIL NUTRIENT REGIME MesDirophic (Medium) c Permesoirophic (Rich) D Subeutrophic lo eutrophic (Very rich) E Ff(PI) Lichen spp - Gaultheria shallon Hw,(F),c Gaultheria shallon - Vaccinium alaskaense C, (F), p w Stokesiella oregana • _ Mahonia nervosa . Hw, Ba, c Rhytidiadelphus loreus • Vaccinium alaskaense H w, Ba, c Rhytidiadelphus loreus-Blechnum spicant Ba, Hw,Ss.(F,c> Stokesiella oregana -Polystichum munitum PI,C(Cy) Sphagnum spp. Ba,Ss,C,Hw(Dec.),(F,C,Ba )* 4-Polystichum munitum - Tiarella trifoliata C,SS, Hw Lysfchtturh americanum • r • 49 Each e d a t o p i c s u b d i v i s i o n i n d i c a t e d by the heavy l i n e s i n F i g u r e 6, r e p r e s e n t s a p r o j e c t i o n of u s u a l l y s e v e r a l c l o s e l y r e l a t e d b i o g e o c l i m a t i c u n i t s , which do not d i f f e r s i g n i f i c a n t l y i n the proposed t r e e s p e c i e s s e l e c t i o n , f o r e s t p r o d u c t i v i t y , and s i l v i c u l t u r a l p r e s c r i p t i o n . In each e d a t o p i c s u b d i v i s i o n the recommended t r e e s p e c i e s f o r t h a t p a r t i c u l a r b i o g e o c o e n o s i s i s g i v e n , p l u s i n f o r m a t i o n c o n c e r n i n g the s u i t a b i l i t y of p r e s c r i b e d b u r n i n g , and the names of the major i n d i c a t o r s p e c i e s appear i n L a t i n . Of the e l e v e n b i o g e o c l i m a t i c subzone t a b l e s p r e s e n t e d i n the appendix of K l i n k a (1977) o n l y i n the CWHxb-s, Submontane a m a b i l i s f i r - western hemlock b i o g e o c l i m a t i c subzone, i s S i t k a spruce recommended as a s u i t a b l e major t r e e s p e c i e s . I t s h o u l d be f u r t h e r p o i n t e d out t h a t t h i s i s so i n o n l y two of the e d a t o p i c s u b d i v i s i o n s namely the P o l y s t i c h u m muni turn - T i a r e l l a  t r i f o l i a t a and the L y s i c h i t u m americanum. T h i s r e f l e c t s the v e r y l i m i t e d a v a i l a b i l i t y of s u i t a b l e s i t e s f o r second growth S i t k a s p ruce i n the Vancouver F o r e s t Region (see 2:6). K l i n k a ' a approach t o t r e e s p e c i e s s e l e c t i o n i s c u r r e n t l y used i n the Vancouver F o r e s t R e g i o n , however, i t was not i n t e n d e d t o be a " s e t of s t r i c t p r e s c r i p t i o n s " but r a t h e r a guide t o be used i n c o m b i n a t i o n w i t h l o c a l e x p e r i e n c e of the growth and y i e l d performance of second growth f o r e s t s t a n d s . The g e n e r a l framework of u s i n g a s y s t e m a t i c e c o l o g i c a l 50 b a s i s f o r t r e e s e l e c t i o n i s endorsed on a l l f o r e s t l a n d i n B r i t i s h Columbia by the M i n i s t r y of F o r e s t s , however, the system has not yet been a p p l i e d t o a l l f o r e s t r e g i o n s i n the P r o v i n c e (see 3:3). The M i n i s t r y of F o r e s t s i n c o o p e r a t i o n w i t h B r i t i s h Columbia F o r e s t P r o d u c t s L t d . , has i n i t i a t e d a s y n e c o l o g i c a l s t u d y on the west c o a s t of Vancouver I s l a n d from P o r t Renfrew t o Kyuquot w i t h the o b j e c t i v e of p r o v i d i n g s i t e s p e c i f i c g u i d e l i n e s f o r t r e e s p e c i e s s e l e c t i o n and s i t e p r e p a r a t i o n i n t h i s perhumid p a r t of the c o a s t a l western hemlock zone. In the P r i n c e Rupert F o r e s t Region t r e e s p e c i e s s e l e c t i o n i s c u r r e n t l y based on l o c a l e x p e r i e n c e w i t h second growth s t a n d s . I t i s a n t i c i p a t e d t h a t the e c o l o g i c a l c l a s s i f i c a t i o n of f o r e s t s i t e s i n the r e g i o n w i l l f a c i l i t a t e t r e e s p e c i e s s e l e c t i o n i n the near f u t u r e . T able 5 p r e s e n t s the methods of t r e e s p e c i e s s e l e c t i o n used by the f o r e s t companies sampled i n a d d i t i o n t o l o c a l e x p e r i e n c e w i t h second growth s t a n d s . T a b l e 5. Methods of t r e e s p e c i e s s e l e c t i o n by f o r e s t company. F o r e s t Company K l i n k a ' s g uide O l d growth i n d i c a t o r s W.F.P. L t d . YES NR M a c M i l l a n B l o e d e l L t d . NR YES T a h s i s Co. L t d . NR NR C. Z. Canada L t d . NR YES C.F.P. L t d . YES NR NOTE: NR = no r e p l y Crown Z e l l e r b a c h on Queen C h a r l o t t e I s l a n d s o n l y . 51 5:4 S i t e p r e p a r a t i o n . A major o b j e c t i v e of f o r e s t management i s t o ensure t h a t the p r o d u c t i v i t y of f o r e s t s i t e s i s m a i n t a i n e d or improved from one r o t a t i o n t o the n e x t . P o s t - l o g g i n g t r e a t m e n t of f o r e s t r e s i d u e s can h e l p meet t h i s o b j e c t i v e , w h i l e a t the same time r e d u c i n g f i r e hazard.' In the spruce/hemlock f o r e s t s of the P a c i f i c Northwest, b r o a d c a s t b u r n i n g i s the most common s i t e p r e p a r a t i o n used (Ruth and H a r r i s , 1979). Autumn burns a r e p r e f e r r e d as the s l a s h i s v e r y d r y and h i g h l y c o m b u s t i b l e , w h i l e the p r o s p e c t of r a i n i s u s u a l l y i n c r e a s i n g a t t h i s time of y e a r . F a s t , hot burns are recommended as they produce l e s s smoke and r e s u l t i n minimum impact on the s o i l . There i s a t r e n d t o c o n f i n e b u r n i n g t o l a n d i n g s and heavy c o n c e n t r a t i o n s of s l a s h . In A l a s k a and on the Queen C h a r l o t t e s s l a s h i s g e n e r a l l y l e f t u n t r e a t e d . The M i n i s t r y of F o r e s t s (1969) i s s u e d a guide t o br o a d c a s t b u r n i n g of l o g g i n g s l a s h . There has been a c o n s i d e r a b l e r e d u c t i o n of f i r e h a z a r d and volume of s l a s h s i n c e the i n t r o d u c t i o n of the " c l o s e u t i l i z a t i o n p o l i c y " on the c o a s t i n 1972. Br o a d c a s t b u r n i n g i s the main s i t e p r e p a r a t i o n t e c h n i q u e used i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h C o lumbia, and recommendations f o r e d a t o p i c s u b d i v i s i o n s have been p r e p a r e d by K l i n k a (1977). 52 He recommended spot b u r n i n g of s l a s h a c c u m u l a t i o n s and l a n d i n g s , and/ or a l i g h t i n t e n s i t y burn b e f o r e r e s t o c k i n g the P o l y s t i c h u m  muni turn - T i a r e l l a t r i f o l i a t a e d a t o p i c s u b d i v i s i o n w i t h S i t k a s p r u c e , and a h i g h i n t e n s i t y b r o a d c a s t burn f o r the L y s i c h i t u m  americanum e d a t o p i c s u b d i v i s i o n . A l t h o u g h s i t e p r e p a r a t i o n i s r e c e i v i n g more a t t e n t i o n i n B r i t i s h Columbia, a t p r e s e n t the m a j o r i t y of c u t - o v e r S i t k a spruce s i t e s r e c e i v e no s i t e p r e p a r a t i o n p r i o r t o r e s t o c k i n g . 5:5 S i t k a spruce p l a n t i n g s t o c k . S i n c e 1970, the one a s p e c t of S i t k a spruce f o r e s t management t h a t has r e c e i v e d a g r e a t d e a l of r e s e a r c h emphasis i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia has been the g e n e t i c improvement of the s p e c i e s . So s i g n i f i c a n t has the p r o g r e s s been t o improve the g e n e t i c q u a l i t y of S i t k a spruce p l a n t i n g s t o c k t h a t a f u l l d i s c u s s i o n of t h i s i m p o r t a n t t o p i c w i l l be d e f e r r e d u n t i l c h a p t e r s i x . In s p i t e of abundant n a t u r a l r e g e n e r a t i o n of S i t k a spruce e s p e c i a l l y on the Queen C h a r l o t t e I s l a n d s the annua l S i t k a spruce p l a n t i n g program i s a p p r o x i m a t e l y f o u r m i l l i o n t r e e s ( I l l i n g w o r t h , 1976). T a b l e 6 r e c o r d s the t o t a l S i t k a spruce sowings by type of s t o c k i n a l l M i n i s t r y of F o r e s t s 53 n u r s e r i e s f o r the p e r i o d 1971-1979 ( J o y c e , 1979). The m a j o r i t y of the p l a n t i n g s t o c k i s b a r e r o o t , and 2+0 s t o c k i s the most commonly used. T a b l e 6. T o t a l S i t k a spruce sowings by type of s t o c k i n a l l M i n i s t r y of F o r e s t s n u r s e r i e s , 1971-79, (0 0 0 ) . YEAR BAREROOT MUDPACK PLUGS TOTAL 1 971 3,720 50 0 3,770 1 972 3,293 0 888 4,181 1973 2,504 0 565 3,069 1974 2,316 540 1 ,347 4,203 1975 2,860 750 225 3,835 1 976 1 ,928 293 750 2,971 1 977 1,496 300 1 ,049 2,845 1 978 1 ,823 0 763 2, 586 1 979 2,326 318 700 3,344 T o t a l 22,266 2,251 6,287 30,804 W a l t e r ' s t r i a l s a t the U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h Columbia Research F o r e s t w i t h the b u l l e t shaped p l a s t i c c o n t a i n e r s i n i t i a t e d the c o n t a i n e r p l a n t i n g e r a i n B r i t i s h Columbia. The " p l u g " concept developed i n the e a r l y 1970's and q u i c k l y r e p l a c e d the b u l l e t i n p o p u l a r i t y . On average 20 p e r c e n t of the p r o v i n c i a l annual S i t k a spruce p l a n t i n g program i s p l u g s and seven p e r c e n t mudpacks. Northwards w i t h i n the n a t u r a l range of the s p e c i e s , where f o r e s t management has not been i n t e n s i v e , n a t u r a l 54 r e g e n e r a t i o n has been r e l i e d upon t o r e s t o c k c u t o v e r l a n d . The s p e c i e s i s c a p a b l e of v e r y s u c c e s s f u l n a t u r a l r e g e n e r a t i o n , w i t h o v e r s t o c k i n g a common c o n c e r n . S p e c i e s c o m p o s i t i o n may be c o n t r o l l e d by c o s t l y j u v e n i l e s p a c i n g (see 5:8). In Southeast A l a s k a e f f o r t s t o i n c r e a s e the s c a l e of s e e d l i n g p r o d u c t i o n and p l a n t i n g a r e underway ( H a r r i s , 1978). 5:6 P l a n t a t i o n e s t a b l i s h m e n t and s u r v i v a l . Of the f i v e f o r e s t companies surveyed Western F o r e s t P r o d u c t s L t d . had the l a r g e s t annual S i t k a spruce r e f o r e s t a t i o n program, which averaged 400,000. T a b l e 7 shows the average annual p l a n t i n g program, per c e n t a g e of t o t a l company p l a n t i n g , and p ercentage s u r v i v a l of S i t k a spruce by f o r e s t company. TABLE 7. Annual S i t k a spruce p l a n t i n g program, p e r c e n t of company p l a n t i n g , and p e r c e n t s u r v i v a l by f o r e s t company i n B.C. F o r e s t Company Annual program No. of t r e e s P e r c e n t of t o t a l company p l a n t i n g P e r c e n t s u r v i v a l W.F.P. L t d . 402,000 42 76 M a c M i l l a n B l o e d e l L t d . 100,000 1-3 90 T a h s i s Co. L t d . 70,000 88 C. Z. Canada L t d . 55,000 100 80 C.F.P. L t d . 10,000 0.5 95 NOTE: Crown Z e l l e r b a c h on Queen C h a r l o t t e I s l a n d s o n l y . 55 Western F o r e s t P r o d u c t s L t d . has e s t a b l i s h e d 3,760 ha of pure S i t k a spruce p l a n t a t i o n s i n the P o r t M c N e i l l , H o l b e r g and W i n t e r Harbour a r e a s i n the p e r i o d 1961-78, and 2,300 ha on T.F.L. 24 on the Queen C h a r l o t t e I s l a n d s s i n c e 1964. M a c M i l l a n B l o e d e l L t d . e s t a b l i s h e d 368 ha a t Kennedy Lake (Duncan, 1978), and Crown Z e l l e r b a c h e s t a b l i s h e d 165 ha on the Queen C h a r l o t t e I s l a n d s i n the p e r i o d 1972-3. T a h s i s Co. L t d . has- d i s c o n t i n u e d the e s t a b l i s h m e n t of pure spruce p l a n t a t i o n s because of the c o n t i n u e d t h r e a t of the w h i t e p i n e w e e v i l (see 4:4). What has j u s t been p r e s e n t e d a re e s t i m a t e s of the e x t e n t of S i t k a spruce p l a n t a t i o n s i n the f i v e f o r e s t companies s u r v e y e d . No doubt o t h e r o g a n i z a t i o n s a l s o have spruce p l a n t a t i o n s , pure or i n mixed s t a n d s , t h e r e f o r e these e s t i m a t e s a re c o n s e r v a t i v e , but do serv e t o i n d i c a t e the growing investment by f o r e s t companies i n S i t k a spruce p l a n t a t i o n e s t a b l i s h m e n t . The s u r v i v a l of the p l a n t e d S i t k a s pruce i s r e p o r t e d t o be on average 85 p e r c e n t , and thus s u r v i v a l i s not a l i m i t i n g f a c t o r t o the management of the s p e c i e s i n the P r o v i n c e . Western F o r e s t P r o d u c t s L t d . , which has the l a r g e s t annual spruce p l a n t i n g program, has the lowest p e r c e n t s u r v i v a l . Why ? T h i s may be e x p l a i n e d i n p a r t by the magnitude of t h e i r annual S i t k a spruce p l a n t i n g program and by the g e n e r a l l y poor performance of S i t k a spruce p l a n t a t i o n s on Vancouver I s l a n d (see 5:7). T a h s i s Co. L t d . has e s t a b l i s h e d a p l a n t i n g t r i a l w i t h S i t k a spruce and western hemlock a t G o l d R i v e r t o e v a l u a t e the 56 performance of 2+0 b a r e r o o t s t o c k and p l u g s (Jensen, 1977). No r e s u l t s have been a n a l y s e d t o d a t e . Western F o r e s t P r o d u c t s L t d . e s t a b l i s h e d a s i m i l a r t r i a l i n 1976 near S e w e l l I n l e t t o e v a l u a t e the performance of 2+0 b a r e r o o t s t o c k and 1+0 p l u g s . The i n i t i a l h e i g h t growth has been g r e a t e r w i t h the p l u g s , and t h i s has been a t t r i b u t e d t o the i n i t i a l h i g h e r s h o o t / r o o t r a t i o and h i g h e r number of a c t i v e r o o t t i p s i n the p l u g s t o c k . I t i s a n t i c i p a t e d t h a t the p l u g s t o c k w i l l produce more w i n d f i r m t r e e s as the r o o t s grow i n a l l d i r e c t i o n s . In c o n t r a s t , b a r e r o o t s t o c k r o o t growth o f t e n tends t o be i n one d i r e c t i o n i n response t o poor p l a n t i n g t e c h n i q u e s (Western F o r e s t P r o d u c t s L t d . 1978). 5:7 P l a n t a t i o n performance. The performance of S i t k a s p ruce p l a n t a t i o n s on the Queen C h a r l o t t e I s l a n d s has i n g e n e r a l been e x c e l l e n t . Performance i s a f f e c t e d t o a l i m i t e d e x t e n t by a shoot miner, Z e i r a p h e r a sp, which causes double l e a d e r s b oth i n n a t u r a l l y r e g e n e r a t e d stands and p l a n t a t i o n s ( C o n d r a s h o f f , 1964). A p a r t from minor i n f e s t a t i o n s of the w h i t e p i n e w e e v i l on n o r t h e r n Vancouver I s l a n d the o v e r a l l performance of the s p e c i e s on s u i t a b l e s i t e s has been e x c e l l e n t . Throughout the remainder of Vancouver I s l a n d and the lower m a i n l a n d p o r t i o n of the Vancouver F o r e s t Region w i d e s p r e a d damage by the w h i t e p i n e w e e v i l has g r e a t l y h i n d e r e d the s p e c i e s performance i n both 57 n a t u r a l l y r e g e n e r a t e d s t a n d s and p l a n t a t i o n s . Repeated a t t a c k s on o l d e r p l a n t a t i o n s has o f t e n l e d t o the u l t i m a t e e x c l u s i o n of S i t k a spruce i n many ca s e s (see 4:4). Duncan (1978) r e p o r t e d the o v e r a l l performance of the 368 ha of pure S i t k a spruce p l a n t a t i o n s a t Kennedy Lake on the west c o a s t of Vancouver I s l a n d has been "poor", and does not encourage the more widespread use of the s p e c i e s i n t h i s p a r t of i t s n a t i v e range. Many of these p l a n t a t i o n s were e s t a b l i s h e d on p o o r l y d r a i n e d f l a t a r e a s a d j a c e n t t o the c o a s t and e x h i b i t e d s l o w i n g h e i g h t growth and c h l o r o s i s . Poor s p e c i e s s e l e c t i o n , l a c k of s i t e p r e p a r a t i o n and p l a n t i n g t e c h n i q u e may a l s o have c o n t r i b u t e d t o the poor performance of S i t k a spruce i n t h i s a r e a . There have been r e p o r t s of what appears t o be a n u t r i t i o n a l problem i n a S i t k a s pruce provenance t r i a l a t Drury I n l e t ( M i n i s t r y of F o r e s t s , 1979). S e v e r a l p l a n t a t i o n s i n the P o r t M c N e i l l a rea a l s o e x h i b i t e d symptoms o f t e n a s s o c i a t e d w i t h n u t r i e n t d e f i c i e n c y , namely, s l o w i n g h e i g h t growth and s e v e r e c h l o r o s i s . T h i s d e c e l e r a t e d h e i g h t growth i s of g r e a t concern t o l o c a l f o r e s t e r s , e s p e c i a l l y when a c c e l e r a t e d h e i g h t i s a n t i c i p a t e d from such s t a n d s . Both n a t u r a l and p l a n t e d S i t k a spruce e x h i b i t e d these symptoms, however, i t was observed t h a t the performance of i n d i v i d u a l t r e e s , judged by l e a d e r growth and c o l o u r of f o l i a g e , d i f f e r e d markedly w i t h m i c r o s i t e throughout p l a n t a t i o n s i n the P o r t M c N e i l l a r e a (Watkinson, 1978). 58 A p i l o t sample of f o u r , f i v e - y e a r - o l d S i t k a spruce t r e e s taken from a t y p i c a l p l a n t a t i o n , and e x h i b i t i n g the symptoms mentioned above, were a l l shown t o have f o l i a r n i t r o g e n c o n c e n t r a t i o n s of l e s s than one p e r c e n t dry m a t t e r . T h i s s e r v e s t o i n d i c a t e t h a t d e t a i l e d i n v e s t i g a t i o n i n t o the poor performance of S i t k a spruce p l a n t a t i o n s s h o u l d determine i f n u t r i e n t d e f i c i e n c i e s a r e r e l a t e d t o the u n s a t i s f a c t o r y performance of the s p e c i e s . P i l o t a p p l i c a t i o n s of n i t r o g e n o u s and p h o s p h a t i c f e r t i l i z e r s s h o u l d be undertaken i n poor performance stands i n an attempt to a m e l i o r a t e the s i t e and improve performance. I n v e s t i g a t i o n i n t o the r e l a t i o n s h i p between p l a n t a t i o n performance, s i t e p r e p a r a t i o n and t r e e p l a n t i n g t e c h n i q u e s may p r o v i d e i n s i g h t i n t o i m p r o v i n g the p r o d u c t i v i t y of t h e s e p l a n t a t i o n s . Such i n v e s t i g a t i o n s s h o u l d be r e g a r d e d as a matter of urgency when one c o n s i d e r s the o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t of t o l e r a t i n g poor p l a n t a t i o n performance. Given the v a r i a b i l i t y which e x i s t s i n the performance of young S i t k a spruce p l a n t a t i o n s i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia and the l a r g e f i n a n c i a l investment i n these p l a n t a t i o n s , as i n d i c a t e d by the l a r g e a r e a s of S i t k a s pruce p l a n t a t i o n s e s t a b l i s h e d i n r e c e n t y e a r s (see 5:6), t h e r e e x i s t s an immediate need f o r a p r a c t i c a l method of e v a l u a t i n g performance. To date no o b j e c t i v e c r i t e r i o n has been d e v e l o p e d t o a s s e s s the 59 performance of young S i t k a s p r u c e p l a n t a t i o n s i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia. The r e l a t i o n s h i p between t o t a l h e i g h t and t o t a l age w i l l be used t o d e v e l o p a s i m p l e P r o b a b i l i t y Assessment System (PAS) which c o u l d be used t o h e l p p r o v i d e a s t r a i g h t f o r w a r d s u b j e c t i v e system of a s s e s s i n g the average j u v e n i l e h e i g h t growth of S i t k a spruce p l a n t a t i o n s i n the Vancouver F o r e s t R e g i o n . T h i s t o p i c w i l l form the s u b j e c t of c h a p t e r n i n e . 5:8 J u v e n i l e s p a c i n g . J u v e n i l e s p a c i n g i n spruce/hemlock stands i s l a r g e l y c o n f i n e d t o the Queen C h a r l o t t e I s l a n d s , where heavy o v e r s t o c k i n g , p r i m a r i l y w i t h western hemlock, i s v e r y common (see 5:5). O v e r s t o c k i n g i s commonly a s s o c i a t e d w i t h s i t e s where s l a s h b u r n i n g and p l a n t i n g have not been c a r r i e d o u t . I n i t i a l s t o c k i n g as h i g h as 35,000 stems per h e c t a r e i s not uncommon i n sta n d s l e s s than 20 y e a r s o l d . The o b j e c t i v e of j u v e n i l e s p a c i n g i s t o s e l e c t the be s t formed, l a r g e s t and most v a l u a b l e t r e e s , w i t h p r e f e r e n c e g i v e n t o S i t k a s p r u c e , t o form the r e s i d u a l s t a n d a f t e r removal of a l l competing stems. A s t r i c t s p a c i n g regime i s not f o l l o w e d but the average stem count a f t e r s p a c i n g i s w i t h i n 10 p e r c e n t of 750 stems per h e c t a r e (Western F o r e s t P r o d u c t s L t d . , 1978). 60 J u v e n i l e s p a c i n g began on Moresby I s l a n d i n 1973 ( B r e n n e s t u h l , 1979) and T a b l e 8 shows the annual j u v e n i l e s p a c i n g programs s i n c e 1973 f o r the two f o r e s t companies most a c t i v e l y engaged i n j u v e n i l e s p a c i n g on the Queen C h a r l o t t e I s l a n d s . Table 8. Annual j u v e n i l e s p a c i n g program by f o r e s t company on Queen C h a r l o t t e I s l a n d s s i n c e 1973, ( h a ) . Year C. Z. Canada L t d . W.F.P. L t d . 1 973 1 2 1 974 24 1975 30 1 976 21 -41 1 977 60 185 1 978 1 29 203 1979 235 216 Crown Z e l l e r b a c h on Queen C h a r l o t t e I s l a n d s o n l y . The p r o j e c t e d a n n u a l j u v e n i l e s p a c i n g program, u n t i l 1982, f o r Crown Z e l l e r b a c h on the Queen C h a r l o t t e I s l a n d s i s 405 ha. The c o s t of j u v e n i l e s p a c i n g v a r i e s w i t h c o n t r a c t o r and d e n s i t y and age of the stands t o be spaced. One e s t i m a t e of $800 per h e c t a r e has been r e p o r t e d f o r e x t r e m e l y dense stands (Western F o r e s t P r o d u c t s L t d . , 1978). I t has been suggested t h a t j u v e n i l e s p a c i n g be c o n f i n e d p r i m a r i l y t o stands i n the 20 t o 25 year age c l a s s , due t o the v e r y h i g h c o s t s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h s p a c i n g younger s t a n d s . The i s s u e of d e c i d i n g the best time t o j u v e n i l e space a dense young n a t u r a l l y r e g e n e r a t e d spruce hemlock s t a n d i s u n r e s o l v e d . No economic a n a l y s i s on the e f f e c t s 61 of j u v e n i l e s p a c i n g has been p u b l i s h e d by e i t h e r company f o r t h e i r o p e r a t i o n s on the Queen C h a r l o t t e I s l a n d s . 5:9 F e r t i l i z a t i o n . E x p e r i m e n t a l f e r t i l i z a t i o n began i n B r i t i s h Columbia i n the 1950's w i t h the a p p l i c a t i o n of n i t r o g e n o u s f e r t i l i z e r s t o second growth D o u g l a s - f i r and western hemlock s t a n d s (Weetman et a l . , 1979). The b u l k of the o p e r a t i o n a l f e r t i l i z a t i o n has been by f o r e s t companies, who up t o the end of 1979, had f e r t i l i z e d 28,000 h e c t a r e s . The M i n i s t r y of F o r e s t s f e r t i l i z e d 3,000 h e c t a r e s i n 1978, and planned t o have completed a f u r t h e r 20,000 h e c t a r e s by the end of 1979. Urea a t a r a t e of between 175 and 200 kg/ha was the most commonly used f e r t i l i z e r . Response t o f e r t i l i z a t i o n has been good i n D o u g l a s - f i r ( M i l l e r and Young, 1976), but response on w e s t e r n hemlock has i n g e n e r a l been u n f a v o u r a b l e ( D e B e l l , 1975; Webster et a_l. , 1976). F e r t i l i z a t i o n of spruce/hemlock stands i n B r i t i s h Columbia began i n 1979 w i t h the a p p l i c a t i o n of f o r e s t r y grade urea a t a r a t e of 488 kg/ha t o 80 h e c t a r e s . Western F o r e s t P r o d u c t s L t d . and Crown Z e l l e r b a c h each f e r t i l i z e d 40 h e c t a r e s . Throughout the range of S i t k a spruce i n the U n i t e d S t a t e s t h e r e have been- s e v e r a l r e p o r t s of f e r t i l i z a t i o n i n 62 spruce/hemlock stands ( F a r r e t a l . , 1977; Webster e t a l . , 1976). The r e s u l t s of a e r i a l a p p l i c a t i o n of urea f e r t i l i z e r on a p p r o x i m a t e l y 2,200 h e c t a r e s of 5 t o 15 year o l d spruce/hemlock i n the Thomas Bay ar e a of the Tongass N a t i o n a l F o r e s t i n s o u t h e a s t A l a s k a have been r e p o r t e d ( F a r r et a l . , 1977). A g r i c u l t u r a l grade urea p r i l l f e r t i l i z e r was a p p l i e d a t a r a t e of 448 kg/ha, between 1969 and 1972. The ar e a i n q u e s t i o n was p a r t of a g l a c i a l outwash p l a i n , which was r e p o r t e d t o be d e f i c i e n t i n a v a i l a b l e n i t r o g e n . The p r e v i o u s s t a n d c o n s i s t e d of mature mixed spruce/hemlock, which averaged 647 m 3/ha when l o g g e d . At the time of f e r t i l i z a t i o n the sta n d s averaged 1.5 to 2.4 m i n h e i g h t , though many i n d i v i d u a l t r e e s had not yet reached b r e a s t h e i g h t . S t o c k i n g ranged from 7,413 t o 14,826 stems per h e c t a r e . Response t o f e r t i l i z a t i o n by western hemlock was not e v a l u a t e d because of f u n g a l damage, t h e r e f o r e the r e s u l t s p r e s e n t e d a p p l y t o S i t k a spruce o n l y . H e i g h t and di a m e t e r b r e a s t h e i g h t were measured each f a l l from 1969 t o 1974. R e s u l t s from one 607 h e c t a r e a r e a showed t h a t S i t k a s p ruce responded w e l l t o f e r t i l i z a t i o n by i n c r e a s i n g h e i g h t growth from 20 t o 25 p e r c e n t , and diameter b r e a s t h e i g h t growth from 25 t o 30 p e r c e n t d u r i n g the second year a f t e r a p p l i c a t i o n . The b e n e f i c i a l e f f e c t s of the f e r t i l i z e r appeared t o l a s t about f o u r y e a r s b e f o r e growth r e t u r n e d t o p r e - a p p l i c a t i o n l e v e l s . The 63 o v e r a l l e f f e c t was t h a t f e r t i l i z e d S i t k a spruce were about 0.6 m t a l l e r and 1.3 cm l a r g e r i n diameter b r e a s t h e i g h t than s i m i l a r u n f e r t i l i z e d s p r u c e . Responses i n terms of i n c r e a s e d wood p r o d u c t i o n c o u l d not be e v a l u a t e d because of the age and s i z e of the s t a n d s . In o r d e r t o m a i n t a i n the observed growth r a t e the stands would r e q u i r e r e a p p l i c a t i o n a t f o u r t o f i v e year i n t e r v a l s . I t was c o n c l u d e d t h a t i n s o u t h e a s t A l a s k a , where f o r e s t management i s not y e t i n t e n s i v e l y p r a c t i c e d , l a r g e s c a l e f e r t i l i z a t i o n of S i t k a spruce i s not recommended. I t was suggested t h a t a t t e n t i o n s h o u l d be d i r e c t e d t o s t u d i e s of c o m b i n a t i o n of t h i n n i n g and f e r t i l i z a t i o n , p l u s f e r t i l i z a t i o n of o l d e r stands where i n c r e a s e d l o g d i a m e t e r and volume c o u l d be r e a l i z e d i n a s h o r t space of t i m e . Crown Z e l l e r b a c h i n the P a c i f i c Northwest examined response t o a e r i a l a p p l i c a t i o n of n i t r o g e n o u s f e r t i l i z e r t o spruce/hemlock stands (Webster et a_l. , 1976). A c o n s i s t e n t response was o b s e r v e d w i t h i n the two s p e c i e s . The b r e a s t h e i g h t diameter p e r c e n t response, was measured 4 t o 6 growing seasons a f t e r a p p l i c a t i o n of medium and h i g h r a t e s of u r e a . A l t h o u g h the western hemlock responded f a v o u r a b l y , i n t h i s t r i a l , S i t k a spruce e x h i b i t e d a much l a r g e r r e s ponse. Response t o f e r t i l i z a t i o n by S i t k a spruce has been e x c e l l e n t i n Great B r i t a i n and I r e l a n d and t h i s s u p p o r t s the 64 f u r t h e r i n v e s t i g a t i o n of f e r t i l i z a t i o n of S i t k a spruce i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia. E x t e n s i v e greenhouse and n u r s e r y f e r t i l i z a t i o n e x p e r i m e n t s w i t h S i t k a spruce and D o u g l a s - f i r were c a r r i e d out by Van den D r i e s s c h e (1969) i n B r i t i s h Columbia. One o b j e c t i v e of t h e s e t r i a l s was t o r e l a t e o n e - y e a r - o l d s e e d l i n g n u t r i e n t c o n c e n t r a t i o n s t o growth and l e v e l of N, P, and K s u p p l y . He c o n c l u d e d t h a t o n e - y e a r - o l d s e e d l i n g s a d e q u a t e l y s u p p l i e d w i t h n u t r i e n t s s h o u l d c o n t a i n 2.1% N, 0.25% P, 1.25% K, and have a Ca c o n c e n t r a t i o n between 0.13-0.30% and a Mg c o n c e n t r a t i o n of between 0.14-0.17%. A l l p e r c e n t a g e s are e x p r e s s e d as p e r c e n t of oven dry weight. I n c r e a s e d growth can be e x p e c t e d i f the c o n c e n t r a t i o n of "very low" n u t r i e n t s can be i n c r e a s e d by f e r t i l i z a t i o n , as the s u p p l y of one n u t r i e n t can a f f e c t the t i s s u e c o n c e n t r a t i o n s of o t h e r n u t r i e n t s . 5:10 Commercial t h i n n i n g . Commercial t h i n n i n g s h o u l d r e d i s t r i b u t e the growth p o t e n t i a l of a s t a n d on t o s e l e c t e d c r o p t r e e s , p r o v i d e immediate r e t u r n s on c a p i t a l i n v e s t e d , s h o r t e n the t e c h n i c a l r o t a t i o n and c o n t r o l s t a n d c o m p o s i t i o n , w h i l e a t the same time c o v e r i n g a l l expenses of the o p e r a t i o n t h rough l o g s a l e s . The h i g h c o s t of e x t r a c t i n g and p r o c e s s i n g s m a l l d i a m e t e r l o g s and the s c a r c i t y of s m a l l l o g m a n u f a c t u r i n g f a c i l i t i e s have l i m i t e d 65 the expansion of commercial t h i n n i n g i n B r i t i s h Columbia. E x t e n s i v e t h i n n i n g t r i a l s have been c a r r i e d out i n the immature, second growth, c o n i f e r o u s f o r e s t s of the P r o v i n c e (Maxwell and Oswald, 1975; Maxwell and M c i n t o s h , 1974). In the e a r l y 1970's Western F o r e s t P r o d u c t s L t d . began c o m m e r c i a l l y t h i n n i n g D o u g l a s - f i r on southwest Vancouver I s l a n d u s i n g a c a b l e system imported from Europe. A s m a l l 0.1 h e c t a r e t h i n n i n g t r i a l e s t a b l i s h e d on Moresby I s l a n d i n 1962 has shown f a v o u r a b l e i n d i c a t i o n s of response p a r t i c u l a r l y i n S i t k a spruce (Western F o r e s t P r o d u c t s L t d . , 1978). E x t e n s i v e a r e a s of prime spruce/hemlock f o r e s t s have been A-frame l o g g e d i n t o the water and a l l o w e d t o r e g e n e r a t e n a t u r a l l y . Many of these s i t e s now support dense second growth which may p o s s i b l y be c o m m e r c i a l l y t h i n n e d , p r o v i d e d a market e x i s t s f o r the t h i n n i n g s . Ruth and H a r r i s (1979) r e p o r t e d t h a t some crown t h i n n i n g had been performed i n the spruce/hemlock f o r e s t s of the P a c i f i c Northwest. They b r i e f l y r e v iewed the impact of t h i n n i n g i n t e n s i t y on the p r o f i t a b i l i t y of the o p e r a t i o n , and on the c o n d i t i o n of the r e s i d u a l s t a n d . Two p o s s i b l e s i l v i c u l t u r a l consequences of heavy t h i n n i n g a re i n c r e a s e d r i s k of windthrow and the o c c u r r e n c e of e p i c o r m i c b r a n c h i n g , which c o u l d reduce the q u a l i t y and v a l u e of the f i n a l c r o p t r e e s . H a r r i s (1966) r e p o r t e d on a p r u n i n g experiment i n a 38- year o l d S i t k a spruce - western hemlock s t a n d i n A l a s k a . He co n c l u d e d t h a t s t a n d s of t h i s age were beyond the optimum age 66 f o r p r u n i n g , and t h a t f u t u r e p r u n i n g s t u d i e s s h o u l d be c o n f i n e d to stands l e s s than 20 y e a r s o l d . W h i l e the p o t e n t i a l f o r commercial t h i n n i n g e x i s t s i n the spruce/hemlock f o r e s t s of c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia i t i s u n l i k e l y t o become common p r a c t i c e i n the f o r s e e a b l e f u t u r e g i v e n the p r e s e n t e x t e n s i v e n a t u r e of f o r e s t management i n the spruce hemlock f o r e s t s of c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia. 5:11 Volume of S i t k a spruce h a r v e s t e d . S i t k a spruce i s of v e r y minor importance i n the o v e r a l l f o r e s t economy of c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia r e p r e s e n t i n g on average l e s s than 4 p e r c e n t of the t o t a l p r o v i n c i a l annual h a r v e s t . W i t h i n the P r i n c e Rupert F o r e s t Region (Coast) the s p e c i e s i s v e r y i m p o r t a n t r e p r e s e n t i n g on average 25 p e r c e n t of the annual t o t a l h a r v e s t . Of the t o t a l p r o v i n c i a l annual h a r v e s t of S i t k a s pruce on average 33 p e r c e n t o r i g i n a t e s i n the Vancouver F o r e s t Region and 66 p e r c e n t i n the P r i n c e Rupert F o r e s t R e g i o n . The t o t a l growing s t o c k volume of S i t k a s pruce w i t h i n i t s n a t u r a l range has been e s t i m a t e d a t 566 x 10 6 m3, of which 180 x 10 6 m3 i s e s t i m a t e d t o be i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia H a r r i s (1978). T h i s e s t i m a t e i s h i g h compared t o the r e c e n t 67 e s t i m a t e of 112 x 10 6 m3 r e p o r t e d i n the F o r e s t and Range T e c h n i c a l A n a l y s i s Report ( M i n i s t r y of F o r e s t s , 1980a) (see Table 29). The e s t i m a t e d average a n n u a l volume of S i t k a spruce h a r v e s t e d and p e r c e n t of company t o t a l by f o r e s t company are p r e s e n t e d i n Table 9. TABLE 9. Average annual volume of S i t k a s pruce h a r v e s t e d , and p e r c e n t of company t o t a l , by f o r e s t company. F o r e s t Company Data a v a i I a b l e Average annua l volume i n m3 P e r c e n t W.F.P. L t d . 1970-78 136,000 7.2 M a c M i l l a n B l o e d e l L t d . 1953-77 151,544 2.3 T a h s i s Co. L t d . Not g i v e n 40,000 2-3 C. Z. Canada L t d . Not g i v e n not g i v e n 18.0 C.F.P. L t d . Not g i v e n 7,500 0.5 NOTE: Crown Z e l l e r b a c h on Queen C h a r l o t t e I s l a n d s o n l y . Complete coverage of the annua l volume of S i t k a spruce c u t i s d e f e r r e d u n t i l the economic r o l e of S i t k a spruce i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia i s p r e s e n t e d i n c h a p t e r ten (see 10:2:1). 68 5:12 E s t i m a t e s of p r o d u c t i v i t y range. The p r o d u c t i v i t y of n a t u r a l even-aged s t a n d s of S i t k a spruce and western hemlock a t 70 y e a r s w i t h i n the n a t u r a l range of the s p e c i e s ranges from 4.6 t o 21 m 3/(ha.a) (Meyer, 1937). Recent e s t i m a t e s of the p r o d u c t i v i t y of S i t k a s pruce i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia, f o r the 18 cm di a m e t e r b r e a s t h e i g h t l e v e l , o b t a i n e d from volume/age c u r v e s ranged from 1.5 t o 12.8 m 3/(ha.a) ( P h e l p s , 1973). W h i l e p r o d u c t i v i t y e s t i m a t e s f o r western hemlock have been r e v i s e d and updated (Barnes, 1962) l i t t l e m e n s u r a t i o n a l emphasis has been p l a c e d on n a t u r a l s t a n d s of S i t k a spruce i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia. Emphasis w i l l , t h e r e f o r e , be p l a c e d on the q u a n t i f i c a t i o n of the v a r i a b i l i t y of n a t u r a l l y r e g e n e r a t e d stands and p l a n t a t i o n s of S i t k a spruce i n the p r o v i n c e (see c h a p t e r e i g h t ) . Recent e s t i m a t e s of the p r o d u c t i v i t y range f o r S i t k a spruce l i s t e d by f o r e s t compnay a r e g i v e n i n T a b l e 10. 69 TABLE 10. P r o d u c t i v i t y range f o r S i t k a spruce i n m 3/(ha.a) l i s t e d by f o r e s t company. F o r e s t Company P r o d u c t i v i t y range i n m 3/(ha.a) S i t e c l a s s i f i c a t i o n W.F.P. L t d . 4.1-11.0 poor-good M a c M i l l a n B l o e d e l L t d . 7.7-21.7 poor-good T a h s i s Co. L t d . 12.0-21.0 poor-good C. Z. Canada L t d . 8.7-11.9 s i t e s 3&4 C.F.P. L t d . 7.0 h i g h s i t e NOTE: Crown Z e l l e r b a c h on Queen C h a r l o t t e I s l a n d s o n l y . T a ble 10 i l l u s t r a t e s the l a r g e v a r i a b i l i t y of p r o d u c t i v i t y e s t i m a t e s f o r S i t k a spruce on the best f o r e s t l a n d i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia which i s l a r g e l y p r i v a t e l y managed. The h i g h e s t p r o d u c t i v i t y e s t i m a t e s of 21.7 and 21.0 m 3/(ha.a) r e p o r t e d by M a c M i l l a n B l o e d e l L t d and T a h s i s Co. L t d i n d i c a t e t h a t S i t k a spruce has s u b s t a n t i a l volume p r o d u c i n g p o t e n t i a l . Such h i g h p r o d u c t i v i t y i s not uncommon f o r S i t k a spruce as the f o l l o w i n g l i t e r a t u r e w i l l i l l u s t r a t e . Dimock (1958) measured t h r e e groups of 0.08 ha p l o t s i n 35-60 year o l d st a n d s of S i t k a s pruce and western hemlock between the Hoh and Queets R i v e r s on the Olympic P e n i n s u l a . Hundred year s i t e index ranged from 48.8 t o 61.0 m. The net p e r i o d i c increment f o r a f i v e year p e r i o d ranged from 99 t o 155 c u b i c meters per h e c t a r e . 70 A 2 6 - y e a r - o l d western hemlock s t a n d a t the Cascade Head E x p e r i m e n t a l F o r e s t i n Oregon has been the s u b j e c t of i n t e n s i v e biomass r e s e a r c h i n the past decade ( G r i e r , 1976; F u g i m o r i , 1971). At the peak stage of p r o d u c t i o n t h i s s t a n d had a t o t a l biomass of 231 m e t r i c tonnes per h e c t a r e w i t h 65 p e r c e n t i n the main stem. T h i s huge biomass a c c u m u l a t i o n i n o n l y 26 y e a r s had a net annual a c c u m u l a t i o n of 36.2 m e t r i c tonnes per h e c t a r e ( F u g i m o r i , 1971). G r i e r (1976) i n v e s t i g a t e d the net p r i m a r y p r o d u c t i o n of young second growth spruce/hemlock s t a n d s , and c o n c l u d e d t h a t "young hemlock/spruce stands are c l e a r l y more p r o d u c t i v e than D o u g l a s - f i r stands of r o u g h l y e q u i v a l e n t age". Even i f p r o d u c t i o n by 3 0 - y e a r - o l d D o u g l a s - f i r stands was doubled t o compensate f o r apparent d i f f e r e n c e s i n s i t e i n d e x , net p r i m a r y p r o d u c t i o n by the 2 6 - y e a r - o l d spruce/hemlock s t a n d would s t i l l be 1.6 t i m e s t h a t of D o u g l a s - f i r . Peak growth i n c o a s t a l s t a n d s appears t o be a t 30 y e a r s , and growth r a t e d e c l i n e s r a p i d l y a f t e r about 50 y e a r s . G r i e r c o n c l u d e d "... the h i g h p r o d u c t i v i t y of young hemlock st a n d s i s w e l l e s t a b l i s h e d .... t h i s e a r l y h i g h p r o d u c t i v i t y appears t o r e s u l t from a c o m b i n a t i o n of c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s i n h e r e n t i n western hemlock as a s p e c i e s , and f a c t o r s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h s o i l s and the c l i m a t e of t h i s narrow c o a s t a l zone of Oregon". 71 L i t t l e r e s e a r c h emphasis has been g i v e n t o growth and y i e l d of S i t k a spruce i n B r i t i s h Columbia s i n c e Meyer (1937). T h i s i s i n p a r t the reason why the p r o d u c t i v e p o t e n t i a l of t h i s s p e c i e s i s not f u l l y e x p l o i t e d by f o r e s t managers i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia. There i s a need f o r r e l i a b l e e s t i m a t e s of the p r o d u c t i v e c a p a c i t y of n a t u r a l l y r e g e n e r a t e d stands and p l a n t a t i o n s of t h i s s p e c i e s . The v a r i a b i l i t y w i t h i n the e s t i m a t e d p r o d u c t i v i t y range f o r S i t k a spruce i s i n d i c a t i v e of the p o t e n t i a l of t h i s major volume p r o d u c i n g s p e c i e s w i t h i n , i t s n a t u r a l range (see T a b l e 10). There remains an need t o q u a n t i f y the v a r i a b i l i t y and c h a r a c t e r i z e the r e l a t i o n s h i p s between i n d i v i d u a l t r e e and s t a n d parameters w i t h i n the p o p u l a t i o n of n a t u r a l l y r e g e n e r a t e d stands and p l a n t a t i o n s of S i t k a s p r u c e . T h i s w i l l form the s u b j e c t of c h a p t e r e i g h t . 5:13 Management i m p l i c a t i o n s . The f a c t s t a b u l a t e d throughout t h i s c h a p t e r a r e e v i d e n c e t h a t i n t e n s i v e f o r e s t management of S i t k a s pruce i s i n i t s i n f a n c y i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia. A sound e c o l o g i c a l b a s i s f o r t r e e s p e c i e s s e l e c t i o n and b r o a d c a s t b u r n i n g has been p r o v i d e d by K l i n k a (1977) f o r the 72 Vancouver F o r e s t Region. There i s a need t o extend t h i s system t o the P r i n c e Rupert F o r e s t Region as soon as p o s s i b l e . To date heavy r e l i a n c e i s p l a c e d on l o c a l e x p e r i e n c e f o r t r e e s p e c i e s s e l e c t i o n i n the P r i n c e Rupert F o r e s t Region where n a t u r a l r e g e n e r a t i o n of S i t k a spruce i s v e r y common. Most emphasis of S i t k a spruce p l a n t a t i o n e s t a b l i s h m e n t has been on Vancouver I s l a n d and, except on the n o r t h and extreme west c o a s t s , p l a n t a t i o n performance has been d i s c o u r a g i n g . T h i s c o u p l e d w i t h the p r e v a l e n c e of w h i t e p i n e w e e v i l damage i n the Vancouver F o r e s t Region has a l s o a d v e r s e l y a f f e c t e d S i t k a spruce i n r e f o r e s t a t i o n programs. There e x i s t s an need t o implement e f f e c t i v e c o n t r o l of the w h i t e p i n e w e e v i l and i n v e s t i g a t e the f a c t o r s i n f l u e n c i n g the poor p l a n t a t i o n performance of S i t k a spruce i n t h i s f o r e s t r e g i o n . Given the s u b s t a n t i a l investment i n S i t k a spruce p l a n t a t i o n s , p a r t i c u l a r l y by Western F o r e s t P r o d u c t s L t d . and Crown Z e l l e r b a c h L t d , an need e x i s t s f o r a s i m p l e method of a s s e s s i n g S i t k a spruce p l a n t a t i o n performance. A s i m p l e P r o b a b i l i t y Assessment System (PAS) w i l l be developed i n c h a p t e r n i n e . The p r o f i t a b i l i t y of j u v e n i l e s p a c i n g and f e r t i l i z a t i o n of S i t k a s p r u c e p a r t i c u l a r l y i n the P r i n c e Rupert F o r e s t Region s h o u l d be s t u d i e d f u r t h e r . W i t h i n the c o n t e x t of a p r e d i c t e d " f a l l d o w n " i n the p r o v i n c i a l a n n u a l a l l o w a b l e cut the need f o r more i n t e n s i v e 73 f o r e s t management i s e s s e n t i a l . Emphasis s h o u l d be g i v e n t o the h i g h e s t s i t e s and the h i g h e s t volume p r o d u c i n g s p e c i e s . The n a t u r a l range of S i t k a spruce c o i n c i d e s w i t h the most p r o d u c t i v e f o r e s t l a n d i n Western N o r t h America and S i t k a s pruce i s one of the l a r g e s t ' volume p r o d u c i n g s p e c i e s w i t h i n t h i s r e g i o n . T h e r e f o r e S i t k a spruce s h o u l d be managed more i n t e n s i v e l y i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia, p a r t i c u l a r l y i n the P r i n c e Rupert F o r e s t R e g i o n . The importance of p r o v i d i n g i nvestment i n c e n t i v e s f o r i n t e n s i v e f o r e s t management of S i t k a s p r u c e w i l l be d i s c u s s e d i n c h a p t e r t e n . 74 CHAPTER SIX. G e n e t i c improvement of S i t k a s p r u c e . 6:1 I n t r o d u c t i o n . S i n c e 1960, the most i n t e n s i v e l y s t u d i e d a s p e c t of S i t k a spruce management i n Western N o r t h America has been the g e n e t i c improvement of the s p e c i e s . Most of t h i s r e s e a r c h has been c a r r i e d out i n B r i t i s h C o lumbia, and i t i s a p p r o p r i a t e t h e r e f o r e t o examine b r i e f l y the g e n e t i c improvement of S i t k a spruce i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia. The o b j e c t i v e of t h i s c h a p t e r i s t o review s e l e c t e d r e f e r e n c e s on the g e n e t i c improvement of S i t k a spruce i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia. The f u l l d e t a i l s of the c u r r e n t p o s i t i o n of g e n e t i c improvement of the major c o n i f e r o u s s p e c i e s i n Western N o r t h America are c o n t a i n e d i n the two volumes of the " P r o c e e d i n g s of the IUFRO j o i n t meeting of w o r k i n g p a r t i e s " ( M i n i s t r y of F o r e s t s , 1978). European i n t e r e s t , over the p a s t two decades, i n the 75 s e l e c t i o n of s u i t a b l e provenances of h i g h y i e l d i n g s p e c i e s f o r use i n r e f o r e s t a t i o n and a f f o r e s t a t i o n programs i n w e s t e r n Europe, has s t i m u l a t e d provenance seed c o l l e c t i o n s of s e v e r a l i m p o r t a n t c o n i f e r o u s s p e c i e s , i n c l u d i n g S i t k a spruce i n Western N o r t h America (see 1:1). F l e t c h e r (1976) reviewed the procurement of seed f o r provenance r e s e a r c h i n northwest America. T h i s began w i t h the f o r m a t i o n of an I n t e r n a t i o n a l Union of F o r e s t R esearch O r g a n i z a t i o n s (I.U.F.R.O.) wo r k i n g p a r t y i n 1966, which l a t e r became S e c t i o n 22, "Working Group f o r the procurement of seed f o r provenance r e s e a r c h " . The o b j e c t i v e s of p r o c u r i n g w e l l d e f i n e d and a u t h e n t i c a t e d provenance seed have been s t a t e d by Barner (1971) as: 1. To a i d s c i e n t i f i c r e s e a r c h on f o r e s t g e n e t i c s and seed p h y s i o l o g y . 2. To a i d provenance r e s e a r c h w i t h the aim of f i n d i n g the best wood y i e l d i n g s o u r c e s . 3. To p r o v i d e r e p r o d u c t i v e m a t e r i a l f o r f u t u r e b r e e d i n g programs. 4. To a i d i n p r e s e r v a t i o n and e s t a b l i s h m e n t of gene r e s o u r c e s i n o r d e r t o s e c u r e a c o n t i n u o u s s u p p l y of seed. The g e n e t i c improvement of S i t k a s pruce i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia w i l l be o u t l i n e d under the f o l l o w i n g s e c t i o n s : 76 1. Falkenhagen's work. 2. I n t e r n a t i o n a l Union of F o r e s t R esearch O r g a n i z a t i o n s I n t e r n a t i o n a l t e n . 3. P r o v i n c i a l provenance t r i a l s . 4. S i t k a spruce c l o n a l seed o r c h a r d . 6:2 Falkenhagen's work. D u r i n g the f a l l of 1970 the I n t e r n a t i o n a l Union of F o r e s t R esearch O r g a n i z a t i o n s w o r k i ng group, p r e v i o u s l y mentioned, o r g a n i z e d the c o l l e c t i o n of S i t k a s p r u c e cones i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia and A l a s k a . In most c a s e s 15 t r e e s i n each of 39 l o c a t i o n s were sampled and F l e t c h e r (1976) r e p o r t e d t h a t "a sample of 15 cones were removed from each sack and kept .... f o r f u t u r e s t u d i e s a t the U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h Columbia". These were made a v a i l a b l e t o Dr. O. S z i k l a i , F o r e s t G e n e t i c i s t , F a c u l t y of F o r e s t r y , and s u b s e q u e n t l y became the b a s i s of a d o c t o r a l d i s s e r t a t i o n ( F a lkenhagen, 1974). F i g u r e 7 i l l u s t r a t e s the l o c a t i o n of 38 S i t k a spruce provenances i n B r i t i s h Columbia and A l a s k a . 77 F i g u r e 7. L o c a t i o n s of S i t k a s p ruce provenances i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a , Falkenhagen and Nash (1978). Falkenhagen's g e n e t i c r e s e a r c h on S i t k a s p ruce was d i v i d e d i n t o two d i s t i n c t phases which w i l l be summarized below. 78 6:2:1 Seed and cone c h a r a c t e r i s t i c phase. T h i s phase was based s o l e l y on 33 provenances. F i v e seeds were randomly sampled from each t r e e , and f o u r seed c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s and one cone c h a r a c t e r i s t i c were measured. The means of these f i v e c h a r a c t e r i c t i c s p r o v i d e d the b a s i c d ata f o r t h i s phase. Provenances were p r o v i s i o n a l l y grouped i n t o f i v e g e o g r a p h i c r e g i o n s : I E a s t e r n Vancouver I s l a n d and the lower m a i n l a n d . I I Western Vancouver I s l a n d . I l l Queen C h a r l o t t e I s l a n d s . IV S outheast A l a s k a . V Skeena and Nass d r a i n a g e s and a d j a c e n t a r e a s . Two m u l t i v a r i a t e s t a t i s t i c a l methods were a p p l i e d t o the cone and seed d a t a t o d i s c e r n the n a t u r e of the v a r i a t i o n among p o p u l a t i o n s of the s p e c i e s . These were c a n o n i c a l v a r i a t e a n a l y s i s ( d i s c r i m i n a n t a n a l y s i s ) and c a n o n i c a l c o r r e l a t i o n a n a l y s i s . The former i s based on the provenance means and 79 a t t e m p t s t o r e v e a l a l l the d i f f e r e n c e s between provenances whether l o c a l or r e g i o n a l . C a n o n i c a l c o r r e l a t i o n a n a l y s i s i s based on t r a i t means of i n d i v i d u a l t r e e s . Both methods e n a b l e d Falkenhagen t o d e l i n e a t e b i o l o g i c a l zones based on cone and seed d a t a . Thus, the p r o v i s i o n a l r e g i o n s suggested e a r l i e r were r e v i s e d as f o l l o w s : A. Regions I and I I on Vancouver I s l a n d may be combined. B. There i s c o n s i d e r a b l e o v e r l a p of r e g i o n s I I I and IV. C. The i n l a n d provenances of r e g i o n V, s h o u l d d e f i n i t e l y form a d i s t i n c t r e g i o n . D. Region IV i n s o u t h e a s t A l a s k a i s not s h a r p l y d i v i d e d from r e g i o n I I I and the m a r i t i m e p a r t s of r e g i o n V, but r a t h e r shows a g r a d u a l change from them a s s o c i a t e d w i t h the c o r r e s p o n d i n g g e o g r a p h i c change. T h i s d e l i n e a t i o n i s more c l e a r l y seen i n c a n o n i c a l c o r r e l a t i o n a n a l y s i s and Falkenhagen c o n c l u d e d t h a t t h e r e i s a g r a d u a l but steady change i n seed and cone c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s as g e o g r a p h i c l o c a t i o n v a r i e s w i t h i n the n a t u r a l range of S i t k a s pruce i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia. 80 6:2:2 N u r s e r y c h a r a c t e r i s t i c phase. J u v e n i l e s e e d l i n g performance i n 545 s i n g l e t r e e p r o g e n i e s grouped i n t o 38 provenances have been i n v e s t i g a t e d by Falkenhagen and S z i k l a i ( n . d . ) . Seeds were sown i n A p r i l 1971 u s i n g a randomized complete b l o c k d e s i g n w i t h f o u r r e p l i c a t i o n s , and 24 s e e d l i n g s per r e p l i c a t i o n . G e r m i n a t i o n r a t e , bud b u r s t , bud s e t and h e i g h t growth of the s e e d l i n g s were measured over a two year p e r i o d . R e s u l t s . T h i s study showed t h a t i n n a t u r a l c o n d i t i o n s 86.2 p e r c e n t of the v a r i a t i o n i n bud s e t can be a ccounted f o r by l o n g i t u d e and l a t i t u d e , w i t h 79 p e r c e n t b e i n g due t o l a t i t u d e a l o n e . T h i s t r a i t appeared to be under s t r i c t g e n e t i c c o n t r o l , as i n d i c a t e d by the second e s t i m a t i o n of t h i s t r a i t , a t the end of the second growing season ( w i t h l a t i t u d e r = 0.88). Bud b u r s t was n e g a t i v e l y c o r r e l a t e d w i t h l o n g i t u d e ( r = -0.50) and p o s i t i v e l y c o r r e l a t e d w i t h a l t i t u d e ( r = 0.42). F o r t y f o u r p e r c e n t of bud b u r s t v a r i a t i o n i s e x p l a i n e d by l a t i t u d e and l o n g i t u d e , 26 p e r c e n t by l o n g i t u d e a l o n e . The h y p o t h e s i s t h a t bud s e t i s c o n t r o l l e d by d e c l i n i n g d a y l e n g t h of l a t e summer i s not s u p p o r t e d by the n u r s e r y d a t a p r e s e n t e d h e r e . The p h y s i o l o g i c a l mechanism c o n t r o l l i n g bud s e t 81 and bud b u r s t i n S i t k a s p ruce i s s t i l l u n r e s o l v e d . The study of the growth responses of S i t k a spruce provenances t o s h o r t e n e d extended p h o t o p e r i o d s and under d i f f e r e n t t e mperature regimes s h o u l d p r o v i d e i n s i g h t as t o the mechanism i n v o l v e d . L a t i t u d e and l o n g i t u d e of seed s o u r c e s account f o r 65 p e r c e n t of the t o t a l v a r i a t i o n i n the e p i c o t y l l e n g t h . T o t a l h e i g h t a f t e r the second growing showed the same r e l a t i o n s h i p as e p i c o t y l l e n g t h , and components of v a r i a n c e and s t a n d a r d e r r o r s were c a l c u l a t e d f o r both t r a i t s . The g e n e t i c v a r i a t i o n among provenances was found t o be g e n e r a l l y l a r g e r than the t r e e t o t r e e v a r i a t i o n depending on the s u b r e g i o n . I t was t h e r e f o r e c o n c l u d e d t h a t s e l e c t i o n a t the provenance l e v e l and i n d i v i d u a l t r e e s e l e c t i o n a r e a p p r o p r i a t e f i r s t s t e p s i n a g e n e t i c improvement program f o r S i t k a s p r u c e . 6:3 I.U.F.R.O. I n t e r n a t i o n a l t e n . In 1972 the S i t k a spruce working group agreed t o i n i t i a t e an i n t e r n a t i o n a l provenances experiment w i t h the s p e c i e s (0' D r i s c o l l , 1976b). Ten provenances were s e l e c t e d , from a t o t a l of 72, which were supposed t o r e p r e s e n t the major p h y s i o g r a p h i c r e g i o n s of the n a t u r a l d i s t r i b u t i o n of the s p e c i e s . F o u r t e e n i n s t i t u t e s p a r t i c i p a t e d r e p r e s e n t i n g the major 82 r e g i o n s where S i t k a spruce i s used as an e x o t i c and i n d i g e n o u s t r e e s p e c i e s . The o b j e c t i v e of the experiment was t o study provenance by s i t e i n t e r a c t i o n between c o u n t r i e s , p l u s genotype s t a b i l i t y under d i f f e r e n t e c o l o g i c a l c o n d i t i o n s . The experiment was d i v i d e d i n t o t h r e e phases; I seed bed, I I l i n i n g out and I I I p l a n t i n g or f i e l d phase. Each phase had a d e t a i l e d p r e s c r i p t i o n (0' D r i s c o l l , 1976b) and i t was proposed t h a t each experiment would r e c e i v e the same tr e a t m e n t i n a l l c o u n t r i e s a t a l l s t a g e s of the e x p e r i m e n t . I t was p l a n n e d t o complete the r e p o r t of phase I I I when the experiment i s 12 y e a r s o l d . The working group's r e p o r t f o r the p e r i o d 1971 t o 1976 c o n t a i n e d the r e s u l t s of each of the 13 n u r s e r y s t a g e s f o r phases I and I I (0' D r i s c o l l , 1976a). I l l i n g w o r t h (1976) p o i n t e d out t h a t the main f o c u s of the I n t e r n a t i o n a l Union of F o r e s t Research O r g a n i z a t i o n s S i t k a spruce provenance t r i a l i n B r i t i s h Columbia would be on phase I I I , as Falkenhagen (1974) had c a r r i e d out d e t a i l e d s t u d i e s on j u v e n i l e morphology (phase I ) and n u r s e r y growth b e h a v i o u r (phase I I ) as p r e v i o u s l y d e s c r i b e d . He r e p o r t e d the r e s u l t s of i n v e s t i g a t i o n s t h a t had been made, and c o n c l u d e d t h a t d i f f e r e n c e s between seed and s e e d l i n g t r a i t s were h i g h l y s i g n i f i c a n t . V a r i a t i o n was e c o l o g i c a l l y c o r r e l a t e d and g e n e r a l l y c l i n a l i n p a t t e r n , a l t h o u g h a d i s c o n t i n u i t y was apparent between A l a s k a - B r i t i s h Columbia and P a c i f i c Northwest p o p u l a t i o n s . T h i s d i s c o n t i n u i t y c o i n c i d e d w i t h the 32 k i l o m e t r e -83 wide S t r a i t of Juan de Fuca, which i s an e f f e c t i v e b a r r i e r t o gene i n t e r a c t i o n between spruce p o p u l a t i o n s on the Olympic P e n i n s u l a and Vancouver I s l a n d . 0' D r i s c o l l (1977) added: "An apparent break i n t h i s c l i n a l p a t t e r n o c c u r s a t the S t r a i t s of Juan de Fuca s e p a r a t i n g Vancouver I s l a n d and Washington. South of these S t r a i t s the c l i n a l p a t t e r n i s r e i n s t a t e d . Two p o s s i b l e e x p l a n a t i o n s can be g i v e n f o r t h i s break. The S t r a i t s form a b a r r i e r t o e f f e c t i v e gene f l o w between a d j a c e n t s u b p o p u l a t i o n s thus g i v i n g r i s e t o d i f f e r e n t i a t i o n a t t h i s p o i n t ( K o s k i , 1970). The S t r a i t s a l s o r e p r e s e n t the s o u t h e r n l i m i t of the spread of the W i s c o n s i n i c e s h e e t . P o p u l a t i o n s t o the s o u t h have had many more g e n e r a t i o n s i n which t o e v o l v e and adapt t o t h e i r e n vironments than have p o p u l a t i o n s t o the n o r t h 0' D r i s c o l l c o n t i n u e d "the r e c e n t l y completed n u r s e r y stage of the IUFRO experiment has shown t h a t the f a r t h e r s o u t h the seed i s c o l l e c t e d w i t h i n the n a t u r a l range of S i t k a spruce the b e t t e r i s the growth". T h i s has v e r y s i g n i f i c a n t consequences f o r a f f o r e s t a t i o n and r e f o r e s t a t i o n programs i n Great B r i t a i n and I r e l a n d . 0' D r i s c o l l added ".. Both e x p e r i m e n t s i n d i c a t e t h a t the most p r o d u c t i v e provenances f o r I r i s h c o n d i t i o n s a r e from the South Vancouver I s l a n d and N o r t h Washington r e g i o n . T r a d i t i o n a l l y we have impo r t e d our S i t k a s pruce seed from the Queen C h a r l o t t e I s l a n d s . E x p e r i m e n t a l e v i d e n c e shows t h a t t h e r e i s a d i f f e r e n c e of two y i e l d c l a s s e s between these two r e g i o n s , 20 f o r the Queen C h a r l o t t e I s l a n d s r e g i o n and 24 f o r the South Vancouver I s l a n d - N o r t h Washington r e g i o n " (see 7:3:2 f o r d e f i n i t i o n of ' y i e l d c l a s s ' ) . The c h o i c e of provenance i s t h e r e f o r e of c r u c i a l i mportance as 0' D r i s c o l l e x p l a i n e d f o r I r i s h c o n d i t i o n s : 84 "Of the 97,000 ha p l a n t e d up t o 1972 w i t h S i t k a s pruce a p p r o x i m a t e l y 30 % have been p l a n t e d w i t h seed from known Vancouver I s l a n d - N o r t h Washington provenances. T h i s i m p l i e s t h a t the p r o d u c t i o n of the r e m a i n i n g 64,000 ha i s below the optimum l e v e l and t h a t i t c o u l d have been i n c r e a s e d a p p r e c i a b l y by c h o i c e of c o r r e c t provenance or by use of home c o l l e c t e d l o t s from s t a n d s of proven q u a l i t y F u r t h e r i n c r e a s e i n growth c o u l d be a c h i e v e d by u s i n g s t i l l more s o u t h e r l y provenances. These provenances however have the major drawback i n t h a t they a r e more s u s c e p t i b l e t o e a r l y autumn f r o s t " . The f i e l d or f o r e s t stage (phase I I I ) began i n the s p r i n g of 1975, and the p r o g r e s s r e p o r t s of t h i s phase i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia, G r e a t B r i t a i n and I r e l a n d have been r e p o r t e d ( I l l i n g w o r t h , 1978; L i n e s , 1978; S a v i l l and M i l n e r , 1978; O' D r i s c o l l , 1978). The S i t k a spruce working group c o - o r d i n a t o r changed the l i s t of the ' o r i g i n a l t e n provenances', by r e p l a c i n g f o u r of the o r i g i n a l t e n w i t h f o u r s o u r c e s whose chances of s u r v i v a l were h i g h e r i n t h i s phase of the e x p e r i m e n t . T h e r e f o r e , t h e r e a r e two s e t s of t h i s experiment p l a n t e d out i n B r i t i s h Columbia. The ' o r i g i n a l t e n ' have been p l a n t e d out as b a r e r o o t s t o c k a t the f o l l o w i n g l o c a t i o n s ; Nass Road, Dragon Lake, Maroon Lake and H o l b e r g . The 'amended t e n ' or t r u e i n t e r n a t i o n a l t e n were p l a n t e d out a t f o u r t e s t s i t e s , two on Graham I s l a n d , and one a t K i t i m a t and Head Bay as s t y r o p l u g s . The M i n i s t r y of F o r e s t s (1977) r e p o r t e d t h a t some of the e a r l i e r t r i a l s had " s u f f e r e d c o l d damage", the i n c i d e n c e and s e v e r i t y of which i n c r e a s e d s h a r p l y w i t h e l e v a t i o n and d i s t a n c e 85 of t e s t s i t e s from t i d e w a t e r . The g e o g r a p h i c p a t t e r n of c o l d i n j u r y was c l i n a l w i t h r e s p e c t t o l a t i t u d e and d i s t a n c e of seed source from the ocean. Southern provenances s u f f e r e d the most and d e s p i t e t h e i r a t t r a c t i v e v i g o u r , the u n s u i t a b i 1 i t y of American s e e d l o t s from the P a c i f i c Northwest f o r r e f o r e s t a t i o n i n the n o r t h e r n m a i n l a n d v a l l e y s of B r i t i s h Columbia was q u i c k l y e s t a b l i s h e d . I l l i n g w o r t h (1978) s t a t e d t h a t "... o p p o r t u n i t i e s e x i s t f o r markedly i n c r e a s i n g the y i e l d of S i t k a s p ruce p l a n t a t i o n s on Vancouver I s l a n d and the Queen C h a r l o t t e I s l a n d s by the j u d i c i o u s i n t r o d u c t i o n of t r e e s from provenances as f a r s o u t h as the Oregon c o a s t " . He c a u t i o n e d ".. prudence s u g g e s t s the c o n t i n u e d use of r e l a t i v e l y l o c a l seed s o u r c e s f o r p l a n t i n g c o l d m a i n l a n d v a l l e y s , where a b a l a n c e must be sought between the need f o r a d a p t a t i o n f o r h a r d i n e s s or the promise of more v i g o r o u s p o p u l a t i o n s from m i l d e r p a r t s of the s p e c i e s ' range". L i n e s (1978) r e f e r r i n g t o r e c e n t S i t k a spruce provenance e x p e r i m e n t s i n Great B r i t a i n s t a t e d t h a t the A l a s k a n seed s o u r c e s " a c h i e v e d t h e i r b e s t r e l a t i v e growth on exposed n o r t h e r n s i t e s , w h i l e Washington and Oregon o r i g i n s grew r e l a t i v e l y much b e t t e r on m i l d s i t e s near the c o a s t " . 86 6:4 P r o v i n c i a l provenance t r i a l s . There a r e s e v e r a l s m a l l s c a l e S i t k a spruce provenance t r i a l s i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia, the most i m p o r t a n t of which w i l l be b r i e f l y o u t l i n e d . 6:4:1 S i t k a spruce provenance s t u d y . Western F o r e s t P r o d u c t s L t d . e s t a b l i s h e d a " S i t k a s p ruce provenance s t u d y " i n 1968 a t t h r e e l o c a t i o n s on W.F.P. L t d . t r e e farm l i c e n c e s (T.F.L.) a l o n g the c o a s t (Western F o r e s t P r o d u c t s L t d . , 1978). These were a t J o r d a n R i v e r T.F.L. 25; Jeune L a n d i n g T.F.L. 6; and Moresby I s l a n d T.F.L. 24. The seed was c o l l e c t e d i n an e a r l i e r s tudy on i n t r a s p e c i f i c v a r i a t i o n of seed and cone c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s i n 1964 ( C l a r k , 1965). Each l o c a t i o n had t h r e e r e p l i c a t i o n s of the s i x S i t k a s p r u c e provenances used. The i n i t i a l s p a c i n g was 1x1 m, however, the Moresby I s l a n d e x p e r i m e n t a l b l o c k was t h i n n e d t o 1x2 m s p a c i n g i n 1976. H e i g h t and d i a m e t e r measurements were made i n 1970, 1975 and 1978 a t the Moresby I s l a n d t r i a l o n l y . The t e n year r e s u l t s i n d i c a t e t h a t the most s o u t h e r l y provenance, namely t h a t from the U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h Columbia Endowment Lands, e x h i b i t e d the b e s t performance i n terms of both h e i g h t and 87 d i a m e t e r growth. T h i s tends t o support the " j u d i c i o u s " use of s o u t h e r l y provenances on s e l e c t e d s i t e s on the Queen C h a r l o t t e I s l a n d s . U n f o r t u n a t e l y , t h e r e a r e no p l a n s f o r c o n t i n u e d assessment of t h e s e t h r e e S i t k a spruce provenance study p l o t s , and as y e t no complete a n a l y s i s of the e n t i r e p r o j e c t has been made. 6:4:2 Provenance and f a m i l y t r i a l s . F alkenhagen (1974) p l a n t e d seed from 38 provenances of S i t k a spruce i n A p r i l 1971 at the M i n i s t r y of F o r e s t s n u r s e r y i n S u r r e y . A f t e r c o m p l e t i o n of h i s work, the M i n i s t r y of F o r e s t s used the p l a n t i n g s t o c k t o e s t a b l i s h provenance and f a m i l y t r i a l s . The f a m i l y t r i a l was e s t a b l i s h e d t o s c r e e n f a m i l i e s f o r p u t a t i v e r e s i s t a n c e t o the w h i t e p i n e w e e v i l ( M i n i s t r y of F o r e s t s , 1974) (see 4:5:3). The provenance t r i a l i n c l u d e d 22 r e p l i c a t i o n s of randomized provenances d i s t r i b u t e d i n f i v e t e s t a r e a s , f o u r on Graham I s l a n d and one on Moresby I s l a n d . Each r e p l i c a t e c o n t a i n e d 38 randomly p l a c e d p l o t s each r e p r e s e n t i n g a provenance, and each p l o t c o n t a i n s n i n e t r e e s spaced a t 3x3 m. The e x p e r i m e n t a l d e s i g n used may be summarized as f o l l o w s ; 38 88 provenances x 9 t r e e s x 22 r e p l i c a t i o n s , g i v i n g a t o t a l of 7,524 t r a n s p l a n t s . Two r e p l i c a t i o n s of the f a m i l y t r i a l were e s t a b l i s h e d , one on Moresby I s l a n d , the o t h e r on Graham I s l a n d . Here a t o t a l of 2,512 t r a n s p l a n t s were used i n the f o l l o w i n g d e s i g n ; 15 provenances x f i v e f a m i l i e s x d i f f e r e n t number of t r e e s per f a m i l y x two r e p l i c a t i o n s (Hartmann, 1973). Assessment made t h r e e y e a r s a f t e r p l a n t i n g a t the f i v e l o c a t i o n s of the provenance t r i a l i n d i c a t e d a tendency f o r h e i g h t growth to v a r y i n v e r s e l y w i t h l a t i t u d e , a l t i t u d e and d i s t a n c e from the o u t e r c o a s t ( M i n i s t r y of F o r e s t s , 1977). Falkenhagen (1974) o b s e r v e d a s i m i l a r p a t t e r n i n the n u r s e r y a t S u r r e y . R e g i o n a l groups of provenances have shown s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e s i n v i g o u r , which i f c o n t i n u e d , w i l l s u b s t a n t i a l l y a l t e r e a r l i e r r a n k i n g s f o r h e i g h t growth. Examples of w i t h i n - g r o u p v a r i a t i o n a re the c o n s i s t e n t l y o u t s t a n d i n g performance of the Usk F e r r y (mid-Skeena) provenance, and w i t h i n the Queen C h a r l o t t e I s l a n d s group, the s i g n i f i c a n t l y poor performance of the Cooper R i v e r provenance a t a l l f i v e l o c a t i o n s . No c o n c l u s i v e r e s u l t s have as yet been drawn from the S i t k a s p ruce provenance or f a m i l y t r i a l s . 89 6:4:3 Progeny t r i a l . T a h s i s Company L i m i t e d s u b m i t t e d a p l a n t o the M i n i s t r y of F o r e s t s , Research D i v i s i o n f o r a S i t k a spruce progeny t r i a l i n 1972 (Jensen, 1977). Seed c o l l e c t i o n s began i n 1970 from 49 p l u s t r e e s i n the G o l d R i v e r , Nootka I s l a n d a r e a of T.F.L. 19. To the s e 49 h a l f s i b l i n g p r o g e n i e s were added two st a n d samples and two s t a n d a r d p l a n t i n g s t o c k p r o g e n i e s . Seeds were sown i n the s p r i n g of 1971 and the p l u g s were p l a n t e d i n the f a l l of t h a t same year a t C r a w f i s h Lake on Nootka I s l a n d . A t o t a l of 8,349 t r e e s were p l a n t e d a t 3x3 m s p a c i n g . A randomized b l o c k d e s i g n w i t h f o u r r e p l i c a t i o n s was used w i t h a p p r o x i m a t e l y 160 t r e e s per progeny. S u r v i v a l i n 1973 was 58 p e r c e n t w i t h p r o g e n i e s r a n g i n g from 49 t o 71 p e r c e n t . Replacement p l a n t i n g took p l a c e i n 1973, 1974 and 1975. T h i s r e s u l t e d i n t h e progeny t r i a l h a v i n g t r e e s of two d i f f e r e n t ages. I t was proposed t o measure the h e i g h t of a l l progeny t e s t s when the t r e e s were f i v e y e a r s o l d , however, ob v i o u s d i f f i c u l t i e s r e s u l t i n i n t e r p r e t a t i o n of e a r l y r e s u l t s on account of the two d i s t i n c t age c l a s s e s p r e s e n t i n the s t u d y . T h i s s m a l l age c l a s s d i f f e r e n c e w i l l d i m i n i s h i n importance as the t r e e s mature, and l a t e r measurements s h o u l d be r e l a t i v e l y u n a f f e c t e d by t h i s f a c t o r . The progeny t r i a l was v i s i t e d and sampled i n J u l y 90 1978, and a l l p r o g e n i e s were growing e x c e p t i o n a l l y w e l l (see T a b l e 13). There was no e v i d e n c e of w h i t e p i n e w e e v i l damage on any of the f o u r r e p l i c a t i o n s . 6:5 S i t k a s pruce c l o n a l seed o r c h a r d . In 1963, T a h s i s Co. L t d . , i n c o o p e r a t i o n w i t h the B r i t i s h Columbia Tree Improvement Board, p a r t i c i p a t e d i n the j o i n t c o l l e c t i o n of s c i o n s and seed m a t e r i a l f o r the e s t a b l i s h m e n t of a seed o r c h a r d and c l o n e bank. The company a c c q u i r e d a s i t e on the S a a n i c h P e n i n s u l a , which was known t o have s u i t a b l e edaphic and c l i m a t i c c o n d i t i o n s f o r cone p r o d u c t i o n . The main o b j e c t i v e s were: 1. To p r o v i d e improved seed of guaranteed q u a l i t y f o r o p e r a t i o n a l use i n the s h o r t e s t p o s s i b l e t i m e . 2. To.maximize the g e n e t i c g a i n t h r o u g h c o n t r o l l e d p o l l i n a t i o n . T a h s i s S i t k a s pruce seed o r c h a r d has an a r e a of 0.8 h e c t a r e and was p l a n t e d t o i n c l u d e a p p r o x i m a t e l y 120 c l o n e s of p l u s t r e e s s e l e c t e d i n the Nootka P u b l i c . S u s t a i n e d Y i e l d U n i t . P l u s t r e e s e l e c t i o n and g r a f t i n g took p l a c e a t G o l d R i v e r , and the f i r s t p l a n t i n g of 430 ramets of 43 c l o n e s was i n 1971. A f u r t h e r 231 ramets from 26 c l o n e s were p l a n t e d i n 1973, however, 91 ramet s u r v i v a l was a problem i n the f i r s t t h r e e y e a r s . T h i s was r e c t i f i e d by the i n s t a l l a t i o n of a ground i r r i g a t i o n system. P o l l e n was c o l l e c t e d from h a l f - s i b p a r e n t s i n 1977, b u l k e d and used t o p o l l i n a t e the female s t r o b i l i . No c o n t a m i n a t i o n of spruce o c c u r s i n the o r c h a r d . An e x c e l l e n t cone c r o p was produced i n 1978. 6:6 Management i m p l i c a t i o n s . G e n e t i c improvement of S i t k a spruce i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia w i l l r e s u l t i n g e n e t i c a l l y improved p l a n t i n g s t o c k , which s h o u l d i n t u r n improve the g e n e t i c q u a l i t y of f u t u r e s t a n d s . There remains a g r e a t d e a l of s p e c u l a t i o n on the expected r e t u r n s from investment i n g e n e t i c improvement, l a r g e l y because of the time f a c t o r i n v o l v e d i n f o r e s t r y . S i n c e 1970, g e n e t i c improvement of S i t k a s pruce has p r o v i d e d the f o r e s t r e s o u r c e manager w i t h q u a n t i t a t i v e e v i d e n c e f o r d e l i n e a t i o n and i d e n t i f i c a t i o n of the h i g h e s t y i e l d i n g provenances throughout the n a t u r a l range of the s p e c i e s . The so u t h e r n provenances a r e , i n g e n e r a l , h i g h e r y i e l d i n g but a r e more s u s c e p t i b l e t o f r o s t and w h i t e p i n e w e e v i l damage than the lower y i e l d i n g h a r d i e r n o r t h e r n provenances. Two im p o r t a n t i s s u e s a r i s e from t h i s : 92 1. The most h i g h l y p r o d u c t i v e provenances of S i t k a spruce a r e l o c a t e d i n a r e a s i n which the r i s k of w h i t e p i n e w e e v i l damage i s v e r y h i g h . So d e t r i m e n t a l has w h i t e p i n e w e e v i l damage been t h a t S i t k a spruce i s a v o i d e d i n r e f o r e s t a t i o n programmes i n t h a t v e r y p o r t i o n of i t s n a t u r a l range where the s p e c i e s e x h i b i t s i t s g r e a t e s t volume p r o d u c i n g p o t e n t i a l (see 4:4). 2. The need f o r gene p o o l c o n s e r v a t i o n of the s e h i g h l y p r o d u c t i v e s o u t h e r l y provenances i s apparent " t o a i d i n p r e s e r v a t i o n and e s t a b l i s h m e n t of gene r e s o u r c e s i n o r d e r t o secu r e a c o n t i n u o u s s u p p l y of seed" (see 6:1). In Great B r i t a i n and I r e l a n d , where w h i t e p i n e w e e v i l damage i s unheard o f , g r e a t c a r e s h o u l d be ta k e n t o p r e v e n t i t s i n t r o d u c t i o n (see 4:4) as i t has had a major a d v e r s e a f f e c t on S i t k a spruce i n more than h a l f of i t s n a t u r a l range. In G r e a t B r i t a i n , L i n e s (1978) suggested the use of A l a s k a n o r i g i n s on n o r t h e r l y exposed s i t e s . On m i l d s i t e s , near the ocean i n S. W. England, Washington and Oregon provenances may be the most s u i t a b l e . S a v i l l and M i l n e r (1978) s t a t e d t h a t "best h e i g h t growth i s a c h i e v e d by provenances from between 46° N and 50° N" i n N o r t h e r n I r e l a n d " . They suggested t h a t on s i t e s prone t o e a r l y and l a t e f r o s t s use of provenances from below 50° 93 N may prove " u n a c c e p t a b l e " . In E i r e , 0' D r i s c o l l (1978) recommended the use of South Vancouver I s l a n d and N o r t h Washington seed s o u r c e s . These e a r l y r e s u l t s must be t r e a t e d w i t h c a u t i o n as seed s o u r c e s t h a t p e r f o r m w e l l i n the j u v e n i l e phase may not m a i n t a i n t h e i r r e l a t i v e h i g h performance as the s t a n d s mature. F o r e s t e r s i n Great B r i t a i n and I r e l a n d , who have e x p e r i e n c e d " L u l u I s l a n d l o d g e p o l e p i n e " are o n l y too w e l l aware of t h i s f a c t . 94 CHAPTER SEVEN. Growth and y i e l d of S i t k a s p r u c e . 7 :1 I n t r o d u c t i o n . R a p i d development of i n d i v i d u a l t r e e and s t a n d models has c h a r a c t e r i z e d f o r e s t y i e l d r e s e a r c h i n the 1970's. Major advances have been made i n m o d e l l i n g growth and y i e l d of many imp o r t a n t commercial t r e e s p e c i e s throughout the w o r l d i n the pa s t decade ( F r i e s , 1974), however, r e l a t i v e l y l i t t l e work on i n d i v i d u a l t r e e and s t a n d growth of S i t k a s p r u c e , w i t h i n i t s n a t u r a l range, has been done s i n c e Meyer (1937). The o b j e c t i v e s of t h i s c h a p t e r a r e : 1. To b r i e f l y r e v iew growth and y i e l d l i t e r a t u r e on S i t k a s pruce i n Western N o r t h America and Western Europe. 2. To d e f i n e the study problem. 3. To d i s c u s s the v a r i a b l e s and s o u r c e s of v a r i a t i o n . 4. To d e s c r i b e the sa m p l i n g d e s i g n and i t s l i m i t a t i o n s . 95 7:2 Western N o r t h American l i t e r a t u r e . 7:2:1 S i t e q u a l i t y c l a s s i f i c a t i o n . The r e l a t i o n s h i p of t r e e h e i g h t t o h e i g h t a t a r e f e r e n c e age, c a l l e d s i t e i n d e x , has been, used f o r many y e a r s i n e v a l u a t i n g s i t e q u a l i t y f o r even-aged stands of s i n g l e t r e e s p e c i e s i n N o r t h America (Husch et a l . , 1972). S i t e index c u r v e s f o r spruce/hemlock stands a re a v a i l a b l e i n y i e l d b u l l e t i n s ( T a y l o r , 1934; Meyer, 1937), and f o r western hemlock a l o n e (Barnes, 1962). These s i t e index c u r v e s a re based on h e i g h t a t age 100. Measurement of s i t e index i n an o l d growth s t a n d w i t h a h i g h p r o p o r t i o n of western hemlock tends t o u n d e r e s t i m a t e the p r o d u c t i v i t y of second growth s t a n d s t h a t f o l l o w . W i t h i n the n a t u r a l range of S i t k a spruce p r o d u c t i v i t y d e c r e a s e s northward w i t h i n c r e a s i n g l a t i t u d e . The average 100 year s i t e index f o r spruce/hemlock stands i n the P a c i f i c Northwest i s about 47.5m, i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia 38.4m and i n Southeast A l a s k a 33.2m (Barnes, 1962). F a r r and H a r r i s (1979) showed t h a t s i t e index (100 y e a r s ) of S i t k a spruce a l o n g the P a c i f i c c o a s t i s h i g h l y c o r r e l a t e d w i t h l a t i t u d e and c o n c l u d e d t h a t " S i t e d e c r e a s e s a p p r o x i m a t e l y 1 m per degree of l a t i t u d e , a v e r a g i n g about 48 m i n L i n c o l n County, Oregon, and 33 m i n n o r t h e r n Southeast A l a s k a " . 96 P r o v i s i o n a l i m p e r i a l , anamorphic s i t e index c u r v e s have been p u b l i s h e d f o r second growth S i t k a spruce i n S o u t h e a s t A l a s k a (Stephens e t a l . , 1968). U n t i l v e r y r e c e n t l y t h e s e c u r v e s were the b e s t p u b l i s h e d source f o r e s t i m a t i n g s i t e p r o d u c t i v i t y w i t h i n the n a t u r a l range of the s p e c i e s . These p r o v i s i o n a l i m p e r i a l anamorphic s i t e index c u r v e s use the t a l l e s t t r e e s and the b r e a s t h e i g h t age t o e s t i m a t e s i t e index f o r second growth n a t u r a l l y r e g e n e r a t e d S i t k a s pruce i n Southeast A l a s k a . These c u r v e s were used t o e s t i m a t e s i t e index f o r each p o i n t sample a f t e r c o n v e r s i o n t o m e t r i c u n i t s . The g e n e r a l shape of the anamorphic c u r v e s d i f f e r s by s o i l s e r i e s and the a c c u r a c y of y i e l d p r e d i c t i o n s might be improved by d e v e l o p i n g new c u r v e s f o r major s o i l t y p e s ( H a r r i s and F a r r , 1974). K i n g (1966) working on D o u g l a s - f i r p o i n t e d out the s h o r t c o m i n g s of the "average c u r v e " method f o r d e t e r m i n i n g s i t e i n d e x . He produced p o l y m o r p h i c s i t e index c u r v e s based on measured h e i g h t growth t r e n d s . H i s c u r v e s i n c l u d e d p r o v i s i o n s f o r : 1. Age a t b r e a s t h e i g h t t o r e p l a c e t o t a l age. 2. S i t e q u a l i t y based on upper crown c l a s s t r e e s , p r e f e r a b l y dominants. 3. S i t e t r e e s s e l e c t e d by d i a m e t e r b r e a s t h e i g h t r a t h e r than crown c l a s s . 97 4. Index age f i x e d a t 50 r a t h e r than 100 y e a r s . Payandeh (1974) f i t t e d m a t h e m a t i c a l growth models w i t h h e i g h t e x p r e s s e d as a f u n c t i o n of age and s i t e index f o r s e v e r a l s p e c i e s i n c l u d i n g S i t k a s p r u c e . He used a v e r s i o n of the R i c h a r d s growth f u n c t i o n ( R i c h a r d s , 1959) of the form: b2*A b3 H = b1*S (1-e ) where H = h e i g h t of dominant and codominant t r e e s S = s i t e index ( h e i g h t at age 100) A = s t a n d age i n y e a r s e = base of n a t u r a l l o g a r i t h m s b's = c o n s t a n t parameters of the model The e q u a t i o n used by the M i n i s t r y of F o r e s t s (1980b) f o r c o n s t r u c t i o n of p o l y m o r p h i c m e t r i c s i t e index c u r v e s of S i t k a spruce ( F i g u r e 8.) was: -0.0380*A 1.9804 H = 1.0458*S (1-2.71828 ) 98 F i g u r e 8. P o l y m o r p h i c m e t r i c s i t e index c u r v e s f o r S i t k a spruce i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia, M i n i s t r y of F o r e s t s (1980b). 99 7:2:2 N a t u r a l s t a n d y i e l d t a b l e s . Smith (1973) p r o v i d e d a comprehensive r e v i e w of the development of growth and y i e l d i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h C olumbia. He s t a t e d t h a t volume t a b l e s were a v a i l a b l e as e a r l y as 1915, but t h a t the f i r s t y i e l d t a b l e d i d not appear u n t i l 1922. T h i s was an e m p i r i c a l y i e l d t a b l e f o r western hemlock, balsam, spruce and cedar i n the K i t i m a t v a l l e y . Smith s t a t e d "the f i r s t normal y i e l d t a b l e appeared i n 1923 i n the B r i t i s h Columbia F o r e s t S e r v i c e Report of 1922". The f i r s t y i e l d t a b l e s f o r S i t k a spruce and western hemlock were not p u b l i s h e d u n t i l T a y l o r (1934). He e v a l u a t e d s i t e p r o d u c t i v i t y u s i n g anamorphic s i t e index c u r v e s , and h i s t a b l e s were d e s i g n e d f o r n o r m a l l y s t o c k e d s t a n d s . These normal y i e l d t a b l e s were e n t e r e d u s i n g s i t e index and age, and i f the s t a n d was l e s s than n o r m a l l y s t o c k e d the t a b u l a t e d v a l u e s were a d j u s t e d downwards. The B r i t i s h Columbia F o r e s t S e r v i c e (1936) produced volume, y i e l d and s t a n d t a b l e s f o r some p r i n c i p a l t r e e s p e c i e s i n B r i t i s h Columbia i n c l u d i n g S i t k a s p r u c e . T h i s was f o l l o w e d a year l a t e r by a m i l e s t o n e i n y i e l d t a b l e c o n s t r u c t i o n namely "Normal Y i e l d T a b l e s f o r S i t k a s pruce and western hemlock" (Meyer, 1937). H i s t a b l e s were based on 300 of T a y l o r ' s p l o t s from S o u t h e a s t A l a s k a , 64 from B r i t i s h Columbia, and 294 new 100 p l o t s i n the P a c i f i c N o r t h w e s t . He a t t e m p t e d t o produce t a b l e s which would be a p p l i c a b l e t o the e n t i r e n a t u r a l range of the s p e c i e s , but h i s t a b l e s had the f o l l o w i n g c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s : 1. T o t a l age was used r a t h e r than b r e a s t h e i g h t age. 2. The s p e c i e s c o m p o s i t i o n of h i s p l o t s ranged from pure S i t k a spruce t o pure western hemlock, and thus was unable t o t a k e s p e c i e s c o m p o s i t i o n i n t o a c c o u n t . 3. Data were combined and a n a l y s e d w i t h o u t r e g a r d t o g e o g r a p h i c r e g i o n . 4. H i s p r o p o r t i o n a l s i t e index c u r v e s d i d not d i f f e r markedly from those of T a y l o r (1934). 5. H i s d a t a were not a d j u s t e d f o r the i n f l u e n c e of s i t e i n d e x , as he c o n s i d e r e d i t t o be of minor i m p o r t a n c e . 6. H i s s i t e index appeared t o be too low at ages l e s s than 100 y e a r s , and too h i g h a t ages g r e a t e r than 100 y e a r s . 7. He r e c o r d e d d i f f e r e n c e s i n growth p a t t e r n s between the P a c i f i c Northwest and S o u t h e a s t A l a s k a but attempted t o b a l a n c e them out i n h i s s i n g l e s e t of y i e l d t a b l e s . 101 8. For a l l s i t e s the age of c u l m i n a t i o n of mean annual increment was 70 y e a r s . Subsequent use of Meyer's t a b l e s i n d i c a t e d t h a t a c c u r a c y c o u l d be improved by p r e p a r i n g s e p a r a t e t a b l e s f o r each s p e c i e s and major g e o g r a p h i c r e g i o n w i t h i n the range of the s p e c i e s . Barnes (1962) d i d t h i s f o r sta n d s which were p r e d o m i n a n t l y western hemlock u s i n g the same b a s i c d a t a as Meyer but d i s c a r d i n g p l o t s whose t o t a l b a s a l a r e a was l e s s than 40 p e r c e n t hemlock. He r e p o r t e d t h a t , i n the P a c i f i c Northwest S t a t e s , s t a n d s of the same age and s i t e index had about 20 p e r c e n t g r e a t e r average d i a m e t e r s than stands i n B r i t i s h Columbia and Southeast A l a s k a , and even l a r g e r d i f f e r e n c e s i n average volume per u n i t a r e a . Average h e i g h t s were about 15 p e r c e n t t a l l e r i n the P a c i f i c N o r t h w e s t , and f o r the s e reasons Barnes p r e p a r e d s e p a r a t e y i e l d t a b l e s f o r western hemlock f o r each of the t h r e e major g e o g r a p h i c r e g i o n s : (1) P a c i f i c N o r t h w e s t , (2) c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia and (3) Southeast A l a s k a . Chambers and W i l s o n (1972) developed e m p i r i c a l y i e l d t a b l e s f o r western hemlock st a n d s i n western Washington. These t a b l e s a re e n t e r e d w i t h s i t e index and age and a r e based on 232 sample p l o t s from s t a n d s where the volume averaged 85 p e r c e n t hemlock. 102 N a t u r a l s t a n d y i e l d t a b l e s g i v e net growth o n l y , and a r e not a p p r o p r i a t e f o r s t a n d s under i n t e n s i v e f o r e s t management where net growth p l u s t h i n n i n g s approaches g r o s s growth. C h r i s t i e and L i n e s (1979) s t a t e d "The American t a b l e s g i v e underbark volumes and r e l a t e t o net y i e l d . They thus do not r e p r e s e n t the t r u e t o t a l volume on g i v e n s i t e s " . The r e l a t i v e importance of n a t u r a l s t a n d y i e l d t a b l e s i s a n t i c i p a t e d t o d e c l i n e as i n t e n s i v e f o r e s t management of p l a n t a t i o n s becomes i n c r e a s i n g l y i m p o r t a n t i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia. As can be r e a d i l y deduced v e r y l i t t l e m e n s u r a t i o n a l work has been done on S i t k a spruce i n r e c e n t y e a r s i n B r i t i s h C olumbia. 7:2:3 Managed s t a n d y i e l d t a b l e s . The r a p i d t r e n d away from n a t u r a l s t a n d y i e l d t a b l e s t o managed s t a n d y i e l d t a b l e s and growth models c o i n c i d e s w i t h the replacement of the o l d growth w i t h v i g o r o u s second growth s t a n d s i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h C olumbia. S e v e r a l o r g a n i z a t i o n s have d e v e l o p e d s t a n d s i m u l a t i o n models f o r p r o p a g a t i o n and e v a l u a t i o n of second growth under d i f f e r e n t management regimes. L i n (1970) dev e l o p e d a method f o r a s s e s s i n g a v a i l a b l e growing space of young western hemlock and a 103 computer model f o r s i m u l a t i n g s t a n d growth. Research w i t h o t h e r s p e c i e s has shown t h a t growth response can be i n t e g r a t e d w i t h v a r i o u s t h i n n i n g c y c l e s , h a r v e s t c u t t i n g t e c h n i q u e s , and e s t i m a t e d c o s t and r e t u r n s thus p r o v i d i n g a b a s i s f o r s e l e c t i n g management a l t e r n a t i v e s and d e v e l o p i n g management p l a n s (Myers, 1969, 1973, 1974). F i e l d and computer t e c h n i q u e s f o r p r o p a g a t i o n of managed s t a n d y i e l d t a b l e s have been produced (Myers, 1971). No s p e c i f i c managed s t a n d y i e l d t a b l e s or s i m u l a t i o n models of the spruce/hemlock f o r e s t s of c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia have as yet been p u b l i s h e d . The M i n i s t r y of F o r e s t s has r e c e n t l y produced m e t r i c volume/age c u r v e s f o r a l l major s p e c i e s i n B r i t i s h Columbia i n c l u d i n g S i t k a s p r u c e . The m a t h e m a t i c a l model used was the Chapman-Richards g e n e r a l i z a t i o n of von B e r t a l a n f f y ' s growth model, which i s of the form: b2(A-b4) b3 V = b1{1-e } where V = volume per h e c t a r e . A = s t a n d age i n y e a r s . b i = asymptote of volume per h e c t a r e which i s d e t e r m i n e d by the p r o d u c t i v e c a p a c i t y of the s i t e . b2 = measure of the r a t e a t which the asymptote ( b i ) i s approched. b3 = " a l l o m e t r i c c o n s t a n t " ( P i e n a a r and T u r n b u l l , 1973). b4 = age when volume f i r s t becomes measurable, e = base of n a t u r a l l o g a r i t h m s . Data used i n the c o n s t r u c t i o n of t h e s e m e t r i c volume/age c u r v e s f o r S i t k a s p ruce were o b t a i n e d from F o r e s t I n v e n t o r y Zones ( F . I . Z ' s ) and the parameters of the Chapman-R i c h a r d s growth model were computed u s i n g M a r quardt's a l g o r i t h m 104 f o r e s t i m a t i n g n o n - l i n e a r parameters (Marquardt, 1963; 1966). The computed model f o r medium s i t e c l a s s f o r the c o a s t f o r e s t i n v e n t o r y zones f o r S i t k a spruce t o a 17.5 cm d i a m e t e r b r e a s t h e i g h t l i m i t i s : -0.0777U-0) 33.5631 V = 772.1528 {1-2.71828 } The c u l m i n a t i o n age, i n t h i s c a s e , i s 66 y e a r s , w i t h a c o r r e s p o n d i n g y i e l d of 632.8 m 3/ha, and a maximum mean annual increment of 9.6 m 3/(ha.a) ( V i s z l a i , 1979). To d a t e more than 400 m e t r i c volume/age c u r v e s have been produced by the M i n i s t r y of F o r e s t s u s i n g the Chapman-R i c h a r d s growth model. 7:3 Western European l i t e r a t u r e . 7:3:1 S i t e q u a l i t y c l a s s i f i c a t i o n . The e a r l i e s t B r i t i s h a t t e m p t s a t s i t e q u a l i t y c l a s s i f i c a t i o n were based on mean h e i g h t / a g e c u r v e s . U s i n g mean h e i g h t a t age 50 the p l o t s were t a b u l a t e d i n t o q u a l i t y c l a s s e s . The modern B r i t i s h F o r e s t r y Commission system i s based on top 105 h e i g h t / a g e c u r v e s . Top h e i g h t i s the mean h e i g h t of the 100 l a r g e s t d i a m e t e r t r e e s per h e c t a r e and i s a b e t t e r i n d i c a t o r of s i t e q u a l i t y than mean h e i g h t because i t i s l e s s i n f l u e n c e d by the degree and method of t h i n n i n g , and thes e t r e e s t e n d t o m a i n t a i n a r e l a t i v e l y s t a b l e p o s i t i o n i n the crown. S i t e c l a s s i f i c a t i o n i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia i s based on average t o t a l h e i g h t of dominant and codominant t r e e s and average t o t a l age w h i l e i n Gr e a t B r i t a i n and I r e l a n d t o p h e i g h t and e x a c t p l a n t a t i o n age a r e used. 7:3:2 Managed s t a n d y i e l d t a b l e s . The e a r l i e s t B r i t i s h y i e l d t a b l e s were produced i n 1914-18 and i n 1920 "The r a t e of growth of C o n i f e r s i n the B r i t i s h I s l e s " was produced. In 1928 "Growth and Y i e l d of C o n i f e r s i n Gr e a t B r i t a i n " was p u b l i s h e d , and a r e v i s i o n of the 1914-18 y i e l d t a b l e s was produced i n 1946. A major r e v i s i o n of y i e l d t a b l e c o n s t r u c t i o n i n the U n i t e d Kingdom o c c u r r e d i n the 1950's, w i t h the new system based on t o p h e i g h t / a g e c u r v e s . A s t r o n g r e l a t i o n s h i p e x i s t s between t o p h e i g h t and t o t a l volume p r o d u c t i o n , and thus t o p h e i g h t was used t o a v o i d the n e c e s s i t y of measuring and r e c o r d i n g t o t a l volume p r o d u c t i o n . The l o g i c a l sequence of a s s e s s i n g s i t e c l a s s 106 would thus be t o measure t o p h e i g h t , c o n v e r t t h i s t o t o t a l volume p r o d u c t i o n , and d i v i d e by the age of the s t a n d t o o b t a i n mean annual i n c r e m e n t . Y i e l d c l a s s i s d e f i n e d as "a c l a s s i f i c a t i o n of r a t e of growth i n terms of p o t e n t i a l mean annual increment per h e c t a r e of volume t o 7 cm t o p d i a m e t e r , i r r e s p e c t i v e of age of c u l m i n a t i o n or of t r e e s p e c i e s " ( H a m i l t o n and C h r i s t i e , 1971). C h r i s t i e (1972) used o r t h o g o n a l p o l y n o m i a l s t o c h a r a c t e r i z e the r e l a t i o n s h i p between t op h e i g h t and t o t a l age as a p r e r e q u i s i t e t o y i e l d t a b l e c o n s t r u c t i o n f o r s e v e r a l commercial s p e c i e s i n the U n i t e d Kingdom i n c l u d i n g S i t k a s p r u c e . T h i s r e s u l t e d i n a procedure of c o n s t r u c t i n g t o p h e i g h t / a g e c u r v e s from which y i e l d c l a s s may be read d i r e c t l y . The y i e l d c l a s s o b t a i n e d from t o p h e i g h t and age a l o n e i s termed " g e n e r a l y i e l d c l a s s " , and such c u r v e s have been p r e p a r e d f o r a l l major s p e c i e s i n the U n i t e d Kingdom. Mean annual increment r e p r e s e n t s the average r a t e of volume i n c r e a s e from p l a n t i n g t o any p o i n t i n t i m e . The mean annual increment c u r v e reaches a maximum where the mean annual increment and c u r r e n t , a n n u a l increment c u r v e s i n t e r s e c t . T h i s p o i n t d e f i n e s the maximum r a t e of volume i n c r e a s e which a p a r t i c u l a r s p e c i e s can a c h i e v e on a p a r t i c u l a r s i t e , i r r e s p e c t i v e of the time taken t o r e a c h maximum mean annual increment ( F i g u r e 9 ) . I t i s t h i s f e a t u r e which i s the b a s i s of the y i e l d c l a s s system. 107 F i g u r e 9. P a t t e r n s of volume increment i n an even-aged s t a n d , H a m i l t o n and C h r i s t i e (1971). G e n e r a l Y i e l d C l a s s e s a r e produced by s i m p l y s p l i t t i n g the range i n t o s t e p s of two c u b i c metres per h e c t a r e and numbering a c c o r d i n g l y . Thus a s t a n d of y i e l d c l a s s 20 has a mean annual increment of about 20 m 3 / ( h a . a ) , more s p e c i f i c a l l y between 18 and 22 m 3/(ha.a) ( F i g u r e 10). 108 F i g u r e 10. G e n e r a l y i e l d c l a s s c u r v e s f o r S i t k a s p r u c e , H a m i l t o n and C h r i s t i e (1971). The more p r o d u c t i v e the s i t e and h i g h e r the y i e l d c l a s s , the e a r l i e r w i l l be the c u l m i n a t i o n of maximum mean an n u a l increment and the s h o r t e r w i l l be the r o t a t i o n ( F i g u r e s 11 and 12 r e s p e c t i v e l y ) . 109 F i g u r e 11. Mean annual volume increment c u r v e s f o r S i t k a s p r u c e , H a m i l t o n and C h r i s t i e (1971). F i g u r e 12. Mean annual volume increment c u r v e s f o r Norway s p r u c e , D o u g l a s - f i r and P o p l a r , Y i e l d C l a s s 12, H a m i l t o n and C h r i s t i e (1971). Vokjmt In an attempt t o ta k e l o c a l v a r i a t i o n i n t o a c c o u n t , t h r e e t o p h e i g h t / t o t a l volume p r o d u c t i o n f u n c t i o n s have been d e v e l o p e d , c a l l e d P r o d u c t i o n C l a s s e s A, B and C. P r o d u c t i o n 110 c l a s s B i s synonomous w i t h the term " g e n e r a l y i e l d c l a s s " , and when p r o d u c t i o n c l a s s i s a s s i g n e d the term " l o c a l y i e l d c l a s s " i s employed. For more d e t a i l see H a m i l t o n and C h r i s t i e (1971). Provenance d i f f e r e n c e s make comparison of p r o d u c t i v i t y d i f f i c u l t between c o u n t r i e s . For example, i n B r i t a i n the e a r l i e s t p l a n t a t i o n s were p r i m a r i l y from Washington seed but a f t e r 1922 the b u l k of the seed came from the Queen C h a r l o t t e I s l a n d s . "The i m p l i c a t i o n s of t h e s e d i f f e r e n c e s i n provenances are t h a t y i e l d t a b l e s i n B r i t a i n w i l l have been based on Washington provenances f o r the o l d e s t p l o t s and Queen C h a r l o t t e I s l a n d s provenances f o r most of the younger ones" ( C h r i s t i e and L i n e s , 1979). 111 7:4 D e f i n i t i o n of the study problem. I t i s o n l y w i t h i n the p a s t twenty y e a r s t h a t p l a n t a t i o n s of S i t k a s p r u c e , or m i x t u r e s of spruce and o t h e r s p e c i e s , have become e s t a b l i s h e d i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia. P r i o r t o 1960, almost a l l second growth s t a n d s , which c o n t a i n S i t k a s p r u c e , a r o s e from n a t u r a l r e g e n e r a t i o n . N a t u r a l l y r e g e n e r a t e d s t a n d s and p l a n t a t i o n s a r e q u i c k l y becoming the f o c u s of i n t e n s i v e f o r e s t management i n the P r o v i n c e . S i n c e Meyer (1937), r e l a t i v e l y l i t t l e m e n s u r a t i o n a l r e s e a r c h been done on the growth and y i e l d of n a t u r a l l y r e g e n e r a t e d s t a n d s c o n t a i n i n g S i t k a s p r u c e , and v i r t u a l l y none on p l a n t a t i o n grown S i t k a s p r u c e . The problem i s a l a c k of b a s i c q u a n t i t a t i v e a n a l y s i s on how n a t u r a l l y r e g e n e r a t e d s t a n d s and p l a n t a t i o n s of the s p e c i e s grow i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia. E s t i m a t e s of the v a r i a b i l i t y , a p r a c t i c a l method of a s s e s s i n g p l a n t a t i o n performance, and models of the growth p a t t e r n s are r e q u i r e d t o f i l l a gap i n b a s i c knowledge, and t o f a c i l i t a t e f u r t h e r r e s e a r c h on the growth c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of t h e s e i m p o r t a n t s t a n d s . 1 1 2 7:5 V a r i a b l e s and s o u r c e s of v a r i a t i o n . One p r i m a r y purpose of r e s e a r c h i s t o e x p l a i n or o t h e r w i s e account f o r v a r i a t i o n . The academic and p r a c t i c a l v a l u e of a c o n t r i b u t i o n t o r e s e a r c h i s based t o a l a r g e e x t e n t upon the a c c u r a c y w i t h which i t p r e d i c t s or e x p l a i n s c e r t a i n phenomena. Thus g r e a t c a r e s h o u l d be taken d u r i n g the r e s e a r c h  p l a n n i n g s t a g e , and i n the s e l e c t i o n , e v a l u a t i o n , measurement and c o n t r o l of s o u r c e s of v a r i a t i o n . The purpose of t h i s s e c t i o n i s t o d e s c r i b e the s e l e c t i o n and measurement of v a r i a b l e s i n t h i s s t u d y . A t o t a l of seven i n d i v i d u a l t r e e and f i v e s t a n d parameters were sampled. Root c o l l a r d i a m e t e r was a c c u r a t e l y d e t e r m i n e d by tape on young S i t k a s pruce which d i d not e x h i b i t pronounced b u t t s w e l l . Measurement of r o o t c o l l a r d i a m e t e r on o l d e r t r e e s was i m p r a c t i c a l because of b u t t s w e l l . Diameter b r e a s t h e i g h t was measured a t 1.3 m above p o i n t of g e r m i n a t i o n . "The l i v e crown base i s the average h e i g h t s u p p o r t i n g l i v e b r a n c h e s . Dead crown base i s the average h e i g h t on the b o l e t h a t i s f r e e of branch s t u b s " ( S m i t h , 1977b). H e i g h t t o l i v e crown was t a k e n t o be h e i g h t from ground l e v e l t o " l i v e crown base" and h e i g h t t o dead crown was taken t o be h e i g h t from ground l e v e l t o "dead crown base". 1 13 T o t a l h e i g h t i s the h e i g h t from the p o i n t of g e r m i n a t i o n t o the t i p of the c u r r e n t y e a r ' s l e a d e r . Crown w i d t h was measured as the average h o r i z o n t a l d i s t a n c e from the c e n t r e of the t r e e b o l e t o the v e r t i c a l p r o j e c t i o n of the average branch i n the crown at i t s w i d e s t e x t e n t . The parameter names, a b b r e v i a t i o n s and u n i t s of measurement of i n d i v i d u a l t r e e and s t a n d parameters e s t i m a t e d are p r e s e n t e d i n T a b l e 11. These a b b r e v i a t i o n s w i l l be used i n t a b l e s throughout the remainder of the t h e s i s . Note a l l measurements a r e i n m e t r i c u n i t s . TABLE 11. Parameter names, a b b r e v i a t i o n s and u n i t s of measurement of the v a r i a b l e s e s t i m a t e d . INDIVIDUAL TREE PARAMETERS ABBREVIATION UNIT OF MEASUREMENT ro o t c o l l a r d i a m e t e r re d c e n t i m e t r e (cm) diameter b r e a s t h e i g h t dbh c e n t i m e t r e (cm) h e i g h t t o l i v e crown l c metre (m) h e i g h t t o dead crown dc metre (m) t o t a l h e i g h t ht metre (m) crown w i d t h cw metre (m) t o t a l age t o a y e a r s c y c l i n d e r form f a c t o r c f f e s t i m a t e d STAND PARAMETERS stems per h e c t a r e sph e s t i m a t e d b a s a l a r e a per h e c t a r e baha m 2/ha s i t e index a t 100 y e a r s s i e s t i m a t e d volume per h e c t a r e v o l m 3/ha mean annual increment mai m 3/(ha.a) 1 14 A c c u r a c y i s the nearness of a measurement t o the a c t u a l v a l u e b e i n g measured. P r e c i s i o n i s not a synonymous term, but r e f e r s t o the c l o s e n e s s t o each o t h e r of r e p e a t e d measurements of the same q u a n t i t y ( Z a r , 1974). The degree of p r e c i s i o n w i t h which parameters were e s t i m a t e d v a r i e d w i t h the age of the i n d i v i d u a l t r e e and or s t a n d , and the n a t u r e of the parameter i t s e l f . Young t r e e s and s t a n d s were, i n g e n e r a l , measured w i t h g r e a t e r p r e c i s i o n than o l d e r t r e e s and s t a n d s . S t a n d a r d m e n s u r a t i o n a l t e c h n i q u e s were employed i n measuring th e s e parameters. However, s e v e r a l of the v a r i a b l e s r e f e r r e d t o above warrant s p e c i a l a t t e n t i o n . Some parameters were c a l c u l a t e d or e s t i m a t e d and the p r o c e d u r e f o l l o w e d i n each case i s o u t l i n e d below. T o t a l age was d e t e r m i n e d f o r each c e n t r e t r e e by one of the f o l l o w i n g methods: 1. For young p l a n t a t i o n s t o t a l age was o b t a i n e d from the number of y e a r s from p l a n t i n g p l u s the age of the p l a n t i n g s t o c k . 2. For t r e e s whose c o r e h i t the p i t h , t o t a l age was o b t a i n e d from the b r e a s t h e i g h t age p l u s e i g h t y e a r s as suggested by Barnes (1962). 1 15 3. For t r e e s whose c o r e missed the p i t h , t o t a l age was o b t a i n e d by e s t i m a t i n g b r e a s t h e i g h t age from the average number of r i n g s per c e n t i m e t e r and r i n g c u r v a t u r e , p l u s e i g h t y e a r s as above. I t s h o u l d be made c l e a r t h a t i t i s v e r y d i f f i c u l t t o o b t a i n p r e c i s e t o t a l age e s t i m a t e s f o r t r e e s whose c o r e s d i d not h i t the p i t h , and thus the e s t i m a t e s of t o t a l age f o r these p l o t s a re not p r e c i s e . However, t o t a l age f o r young p l a n t a t i o n s a r e e x a c t , and the e s t i m a t e s of t o t a l age f o r a l l t r e e s whose co r e h i t the p i t h are r e g a r d e d as c l o s e a p p r o x i m a t i o n s t o the t r u e t o t a l age, and s u f f i c i e n t l y a c c u r a t e f o r the purposes of t h i s s t u d y . Number of stems per h e c t a r e was e s t i m a t e d from the number of t r e e s counted, i n c l u d i n g the c e n t r e t r e e , i n a f i x e d r a d i u s p l o t t i m e s the a p p r o p r i a t e c o n v e r s i o n f a c t o r . B a s a l a r e a per h e c t a r e was e s t i m a t e d as the pr o d u c t of the number of t r e e s counted i n a 360 degree sweep about and i n c l u d i n g the c e n t r e t r e e and a p r i s m w i t h b a s a l a r e a f a c t o r of 6 metres. An i m p e r i a l p r i s m of b a s a l a r e a f a c t o r 20 was used t o e s t i m a t e b a s a l a r e a f o r some of the p l o t s . I t was not p o s s i b l e t o e s t i m a t e the b a s a l a r e a f o r s t a n d s of l e s s than 4 square metres per h e c t a r e . 1 16 S i t e index was d e r i v e d from the anamorphic m e t r i c s i t e index c u r v e s of Stephens et a_l. (1968) f o r each of the 245 p o i n t sample c e n t r e t r e e s . I m p l i c i t i n t h i s p r o c e d u r e i s t h a t the c e n t r e t r e e i s r e p r e s e n t a t i v e of the t a l l e s t S i t k a spruce t r e e i n the p l o t . By f a r the most i m p o r t a n t v a r i a b l e c a l c u l a t e d was volume per h e c t a r e , and t h i s was d e t e r m i n e d from the f o l l o w i n g f o r m u l a : V = ( H ) ( B ) ( F ) where V = g r o s s volume per h e c t a r e i n c u b i c metres. H = t o t a l h e i g h t i n metres of the c e n t r e t r e e . B = e s t i m a t e d b a s a l a r e a per h e c t a r e i n square metres. F = c y c l i n d e r form f a c t o r f o r immature S i t k a spruce which was d e r i v e d from the f o r m u l a : Log F = -0.286 - 0.164 l o g D + 0.043 l o g H where D = d i a m e t e r b r e a s t h e i g h t i n i n c h e s H = t o t a l h e i g h t i n f e e t Smith (1973) The volume c a l c u l a t e d was g r o s s or " t o t a l t r e e volume". W h i l e merchantable volume f a c t o r s ( p e r c e n t a g e s ) have been computed ( M i n i s t r y of F o r e s t s , 1976b) they were not a p p l i e d t o the c a l c u l a t e d t o t a l t r e e volumes, as the p e r c e n t r e d u c t i o n a t d i a m e t e r c l a s s 45 cm and above, w i t h 30 cm stump h e i g h t , t o a 10 cm t o p d i a m e t e r l i m i t i s o n l y one p e r c e n t . The m erchantable volume f a c t o r s , however, a r e i m p o r t a n t when wo r k i n g w i t h t r e e s of s m a l l d i a m e t e r , which was not the case i n t h i s s t u d y . 1 17 Mean annual increment was c a l c u l a t e d from the e s t i m a t e d volume per h e c t a r e d i v i d e d by the e s t i m a t e d t o t a l age of the c e n t r e t r e e . S i n c e t o t a l age cannot be r e g a r d e d as p r e c i s e mean annual increment i s a l s o i m p r e c i s e , but i s c o n s i d e r e d s u f f i c i e n t l y a c c u r a t e f o r the purposes of t h i s s t u d y . 118 7:6 Sampling d e s i g n . 7:6:1 Sampling s p e c i f i c a t i o n s . The o b j e c t i v e of s a m p l i n g was t o o b t a i n a randomly s e l e c t e d r e p r e s e n t a t i v e sample of n a t u r a l l y r e g e n e r a t e d stands and p l a n t a t i o n s of S i t k a s pruce i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia. The " u n i v e r s e " was a l l s t a n d s c o n t a i n i n g S i t k a spruce i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h C olumbia, and the sample " p o p u l a t i o n " was a l l stands of 160 y e a r s or l e s s c o n t a i n i n g S i t k a spruce i n the Vancouver F o r e s t R e g i o n . The " p o p u l a t i o n " r o u g h l y c o i n c i d e s w i t h Falkenhagen's (1974) combined b i o l o g i c a l zone, which i n c l u d e s Vancouver I s l a n d and the southwest Lower M a i n l a n d of the P r o v i n c e . Some samples were c o l l e c t e d i n the Skeena and Nass R i v e r V a l l e y s and on the Queen C h a r l o t t e I s l a n d s but were too few t o be r e p r e s e n t a t i v e of the s p e c i e s i n the P r i n c e Rupert F o r e s t R e g i o n . They were, however, i n c l u d e d i n the a n a l y s i s . The "sampling u n i t " was a p o i n t sample or v a r i a b l e r a d i u s p l o t of e i t h e r 3.59 m or 5.67 m. The c e n t r e of the p o i n t sample was a randomly s e l e c t e d dominant or codominant S i t k a spruce t r e e r e f e r r e d t o as the " c e n t r e t r e e " . I f o n l y the c e n t r e t r e e o c c u r r e d i n the 3.59 m p l o t then the l a r g e r 5.67 m p l o t was used. 1 19 A sample survey s h o u l d s t r i v e t o s u p p l y u n b i a s e d e s t i m a t e s of the v a r i a b l e s under e x a m i n a t i o n . Thus the sample mean and v a r i a n c e s h o u l d be un b i a s e d e s t i m a t e s of the p o p u l a t i o n mean and v a r i a n c e r e s p e c t i v e l y . A t t e m p t s were made t o m i n i m i z e b i a s i n sa m p l i n g by u s i n g s t r a t i f i e d random s a m p l i n g . The sample p o p u l a t i o n was d i v i d e d i n t o e i g h t 20 year age s t r a t a . A d e l i b e r a t e attempt was made t o o b t a i n an e q u a l number of randomly s e l e c t e d samples, w i t h o u t r e p l a c e m e n t , from w i t h i n each s t r a t u m , w i t h r e a s o n a b l e s u c c e s s . The e f f e c t i v e n e s s of s t r a t i f i c a t i o n can be i n v e s t i g a t e d by a n a l y s i s of v a r i a n c e . The t o t a l v a r i a n c e of the p o p u l a t i o n i s made up of "between" and " w i t h i n " s t r a t a v a r i a t i o n . I f s t r a t i f i c a t i o n i s e f f e c t i v e , the s t r a t a a r e homogenous w i t h i n themselves and the v a r i a n c e w i t h i n the i n d i v i d u a l s t r a t u m i s r e l a t i v e l y s m a l l , so t h a t such sample e s t i m a t e s have s m a l l s t a n d a r d e r r o r s . I f the s t r a t i f i c a t i o n i s imposed i n such a way t h a t the d i f f e r e n c e s "between" the i n d i v i d u a l s t r a t u m a re as l a r g e as p o s s i b l e , then a l a r g e p r o p o r t i o n of the t o t a l v a r i a n c e w i l l be made up of d i f f e r e n c e s "between" the s t r a t a and o n l y a s m a l l p r o p o r t i o n of the v a r i a n c e w i l l be a c c o u n t e d f o r by the " w i t h i n " s t r a t a d i f f e r e n c e s (Prodan, 1968). The r e s t r i c t i o n p l a c e d on the sa m p l i n g d e s i g n , compared t o s i m p l e random s a m p l i n g , r e s t s on the c o n d i t i o n t h a t 1 20 e v e r y s t r a t u m must be r e p r e s e n t e d i n the sample. S i n c e the sample means and v a r i a n c e of the i n d i v i d u a l s t r a t a a r e u n b i a s e d e s t i m a t e s , the p o p u l a t i o n means and v a r i a n c e of the i n d i v i d u a l s t r a t u m s h o u l d a l s o be e s t i m a t e d i n an u n b i a s e d manner. W i t h i n each s t r a t u m the s e l e c t i o n of the c e n t r e t r e e p o i n t samples was made u s i n g s i m p l e random samp l i n g from w i t h i n dominant and codominant S i t k a spruce t r e e s i n the s t a n d . Thus the r e s u l t i n g e s t i m a t e s a r e b i a s e d upward i n a d e l i b e r a t e attempt t o d e f i n e the upper l i m i t s of i n d i v i d u a l t r e e and s t a n d p a r a m e t e r s . Another source of b i a s i n the d e s i g n r e s u l t e d from the v a s t b u l k of the p o i n t samples b e i n g w i t h i n w a l k i n g d i s t a n c e from a f o r e s t r o a d . Thus i n a c c e s s i b l e , h i g h e l e v a t i o n s t a n d s c o n t a i n i n g the s p e c i e s , w i t h i n the p o p u l a t i o n , a r e not r e p r e s e n t e d . The c a l c u l a t i o n of the number of samples t o measure f o r a s p e c i f i e d degree of p r e c i s i o n d i d not a r i s e i n t h i s study as no p r i o r e s t i m a t e s of the p o p u l a t i o n v a r i a n c e , f o r the parameters of i n t e r e s t - , were r e a d i l y a v a i l a b l e . The number of p o i n t samples measured was p r i m a r i l y a f u n c t i o n of economics and time r a t h e r than s t a t i s t i c s . 121 7:6:2 L i m i t a t i o n s of the s a m p l i n g d e s i g n . There were f o u r l i m i t a t i o n s of the s a m p l i n g d e s i g n used: 1. I t was not p o s s i b l e , due t o l i m i t e d time and f i n a n c e , t o measure a s u b s t a n t i a l number of p o i n t samples i n the P r i n c e Rupert F o r e s t Region. No samples were c o l l e c t e d i n the mid-c o a s t m a i n l a n d s e c t i o n of the n a t u r a l d i s t r i b u t i o n of the s p e c i e s i n B r i t i s h Columbia. 2. There i s a d e l i b e r a t e upward b i a s w i t h i n the d a t a , r e s u l t i n g from the random s e l e c t i o n from w i t h i n dominant and codominant S i t k a spruce c e n t r e t r e e s w i t h i n each s t r a t u m . Thus the p o p u l a t i o n e s t i m a t e s may be o v e r e s t i m a t e s of the t r u e unknown p o p u l a t i o n p a r a m e t e r s . 3. R e s u l t s are a p p l i c a b l e p r i m a r i l y t o "good" spruce s i t e s i n the Vancouver F o r e s t R e g i o n . 4. I t was not p o s s i b l e t o e s t i m a t e b a s a l a r e a of s tands of l e s s than f o u r m 2/ha. 1 22 7:7 Data c o l l e c t i o n . Through the a s s i s t a n c e of f o r e s t o r g a n i z a t i o n s l i s t e d i n T a b l e 1, r e p r e s e n t a t i v e even-aged n a t u r a l l y r e g e n e r a t e d s t a n d s and p l a n t a t i o n s of S i t k a s pruce were i d e n t i f i e d f o r s a m p l i n g . A t o t a l of 411 p o i n t samples were measured at 12 l o c a t i o n s throughout the range of the s p e c i e s i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia i n the summer of 1978. The f o r e s t o r g a n i z a t i o n , l o c a t i o n and the number of p o i n t samples taken are p r e s e n t e d i n Ta b l e 12. Only 34 of a t o t a l of 411 p o i n t samples were measured i n the P r i n c e Rupert F o r e s t Region (PRFR). I t i s i n these p o o r l y r e p r e s e n t e d n o r t h e r n c o a s t a l f o r e s t s of the P r o v i n c e t h a t S i t k a spruce has i t s g r e a t e s t p o t e n t i a l f o r i n t e n s i v e f o r e s t management. F u t u r e s t u d i e s on the growth and y i e l d of S i t k a s p ruce s h o u l d c o n c e n t r a t e t h e i r e f f o r t s i n the P r i n c e Rupert F o r e s t Region. 1 23 T a b l e 12. F o r e s t o r g a n i z a t i o n s , l o c a t i o n and number of p o i n t samples measured i n 1978 FOREST ORGANIZATION LOCATION NUMBER W.F.P. L t d . P o r t M c N e i l l 13 W.F.P. L t d . H o l b e r g 10 W.F.P. L t d . Moresby I s l a n d , Q.C.I 8 M a c M i l l a n B l o e d e l L t d . Graham I s l a n d , Q.C.I 4 C. Z. Canada L t d . Moresby I s l a n d , Q.C.I 4 T a h s i s Co. L t d . Nootka I s l a n d 20 T a h s i s Co. L t d . Head Bay, G o l d R i v e r 96 T a h s i s Co. L t d . West Road, G o l d R i v e r 22 T a h s i s Co. L t d . G o l d R i v e r 9 C.F.P. L t d . Woss Camp, N i m k i s h 1 0 T w i n r i v e r Timber L t d . Nass and Skeena V a l l e y s 18 F a c u l t y of F o r e s t r y Endowment Lands, U.B.C 1 1 5 F a c u l t y of F o r e s t r y R esearch F o r e s t , Haney 82 T o t a l sample s i z e 41 1 A l l d a t a c o l l e c t e d were s t o r e d on magnetic tape on the Amdahl 470V/6 Model I I run under the M i c h i g a n T e r m i n a l System (M.T.S.) on campus a t the U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h Columbia. The m a j o r i t y of the s t a t i s t i c a l a n a l y s i s was performed u s i n g the M i c h i g a n I n t e r a c t i v e Data A n a l y s i s System, (M.I.D.A.S) (Fox and G u i r e , 1976), which i s d i s t r i b u t e d by the S t a t i s t i c a l R esearch L a b o r a t o r y of the U n i v e r s i t y of M i c h i g a n . Use was a l s o made of "MREG" (Kozak, 1979), and UBC TRP (Le and T e n i s c i , 1978). P l o t t i n g was done u s i n g UBC PLOT ( M a i r , 1978) and UBC PLOTSEE 124 ( M a i r , 1980) on Calcom and Houston p l o t t e r s . The d a t a have been d i v i d e d i n t o two d i s t i n c t groups DATA GROUP I and DATA GROUP I I . Each d a t a group w i l l be a n a l y s e d s e p a r a t e l y . DATA GROUP I r e p r e s e n t s the p l a n t a t i o n grown S i t k a s p ruce s t a n d s w i t h i n the sample p o p u l a t i o n . F i v e v a r i a b l e s were measured w i t h i n t h i s group, namely, r o o t c o l l a r d i a m e t e r , diameter b r e a s t h e i g h t , t o t a l h e i g h t , crown w i d t h , and t o t a l age. T h i s d a t a group i s c h a r a c t e r i z e d by h a v i n g ages which c o u l d be d e t e r m i n e d e x a c t l y (see 7:5), and were too young t o have been a s s i g n e d a s i t e i n d e x . DATA GROUP I c o n t a i n s 166 p o i n t samples a l l of which were l e s s than 17 y e a r s of age i n 1978. DATA GROUP I I r e p r e s e n t s the n a t u r a l l y r e g e n e r a t e d S i t k a spruce s t a n d s w i t h i n the p o p u l a t i o n sampled. Seven i n d i v i d u a l t r e e and f i v e s t a n d parameters have been measured or c a l c u l a t e d f o r each of 245 p o i n t samples. A l l c e n t r e t r e e e s t i m a t e s of t o t a l age were g r e a t e r than 17 y e a r s of age. 125 CHAPTER EIGHT. V a r i a b i l i t y of S i t k a s p r u c e . 8:1 I n t r o d u c t i o n . The d a t a , which c o n s i s t of 411 p o i n t samples, have been d i v i d e d i n t o DATA GROUP I , p l a n t e d S i t k a s p r u c e , and DATA GROUP I I , n a t u r a l s t a n d s , and r e s u l t s w i l l be p r e s e n t e d s e p a r a t e l y f o r each. T h i s c h a p t e r w i l l be p r e s e n t e d i n two d i s t i n c t p a r t s c o r r e s p o n d i n g t o o b j e c t i v e s 5 and 6 as o u t l i n e d i n S e c t i o n 1:2. The a p p r o p r i a t e s t a t i s t i c a l methodology has been o u t l i n e d i n d e t a i l by Zar (1974), Kleinbaum and Kupper (1978) and Mac S i u r t a i n (1981). 8:2 A n a l y s i s p a r t one. The o b j e c t i v e of t h i s p a r t i s t o e s t i m a t e the v a r i a b i l i t y w i t h i n n a t u r a l l y r e g e n e r a t e d stands and p l a n t a t i o n s of S i t k a s pruce i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia. 126 8:2:1 V a r i a b i l i t y of S i t k a spruce p l a n t a t i o n s . The averages of v a r i a b l e s , measured i n DATA GROUP I , by l o c a t i o n a r e p r e s e n t e d i n Ta b l e 13. The p l a n t i n g of e c o l o g i c a l l y adapted h i g h y i e l d i n g s p e c i e s on pr e p a r e d c u t o v e r a r e a s i s the f i r s t s t e p i n p l a n t a t i o n e s t a b l i s h m e n t . R a p i d s t a n d e s t a b l i s h m e n t i s i m p o r t a n t as i t m i n i m i z e s the e s t a b l i s h m e n t of c o m p e t i t i v e s c r u b s p e c i e s , i t f a c i l i t a t e s s t o c k i n g c o n t r o l , and i t h e l p s m i n i m i z e r o t a t i o n l e n g t h . T a b l e 13 i n d i c a t e s t h a t S i t k a s p r u c e has the p o t e n t i a l f o r v e r y r a p i d s t a n d e s t a b l i s h m e n t , as suggested by the h i g h average t o t a l h e i g h t and crown w i d t h v a l u e s . T a b l e 13. Averages of v a r i a b l e s , measured i n DATA GROUP I , by l o c a t i o n . L o c a t i o n Nootka I s l a n d Head Bay G o l d R i v e r West Road P o r t M c N e i l l H o l -berg Q.C. I s l a n d s number 20 96 10 1 2 1 3 1 0 5 red (cm) 9.0 6.7 17.5 6.7 10.8 8.3 dbh (cm) 4.1 0.6 3.2 11.8 2.8 5.5 4.0 ht (m) 3.6 1 .4 3.1 7.8 2.6 4.0 3.3 cw (m) 2.0 0.7 1 .4 3.1 1 .5 3.0 3.2 toa ( y r ) 7 5 10 16 7 1 1 10 See T a b l e 11 f o r e x p l a n a t i o n of a b b r e v i a t i o n s . A l l d a t a were c o l l e c t e d on Vancouver I s l a n d a p a r t from the few p o i n t samples on Nootka I s l a n d and on the Queen 127 C h a r l o t t e I s l a n d s . E x a m i n a t i o n of the average v a l u e s of s i m i l a r age i n d i c a t e s t h a t mean p l a n t a t i o n s t a n d c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s v a r y c o n s i d e r a b l y . For example, the average v a l u e s of two seven year o l d p l a n t a t i o n s , a t P o r t M c N e i l l and on Nootka I s l a n d , i n d i c a t e d t h a t the Nootka I s l a n d s t a n d was p e r f o r m i n g b e t t e r than the P o r t M c N e i l l p l a n t a t i o n . T h i s v a r i a t i o n may be due t o the f e r t i l i t y and p r e p a r a t i o n of the s i t e , age, s u i t a b i l i t y and g e n e t i c q u a l i t y of the p l a n t i n g s t o c k and the management of the p l a n t a t i o n . In f a c t , i n the case of the Nootka I s l a n d p l a n t a t i o n the p l a n t i n g s t o c k o r i g i n a t e d from seed c o l l e c t i o n s of " p l u s t r e e s " which h e l p s e x p l a i n the h i g h e r performance i n t h i s c a s e . The t h r i f t y 16 year o l d p l a n t a t i o n a t West Road near G o l d R i v e r , d e s p i t e some e v i d e n c e of w h i t e p i n e w e e v i l damage, has remained v i g o r o u s and had c l o s e d canopy. The average v a l u e s f o r t h i s p l a n t a t i o n suggest t h a t by 16 y e a r s one can expect c a n o p i e s t o have begun c l o s i n g , however, no ev i d e n c e of r i s i n g l i v e crowns was, as y e t , e v i d e n t . The minimum, maximum, sample mean, sample s t a n d a r d d e v i a t i o n , and 95 p e r c e n t c o n f i d e n c e i n t e r v a l s about the sample mean f o r DATA GROUP I a r e p r e s e n t e d i n Ta b l e 14. T h i s t a b l e q u a n t i f i e s the v a r i a b i l i t y of the j u v e n i l e growth parameters e s t imated. 1 28 Tab l e 14. Minimum, maximum, mean, s t a n d a r d d e v i a t i o n , and 95% c o n f i d e n c e i n t e r v a l s about the sample mean f o r v a r i a b l e s measured i n DATA GROUP I . Only non-zero o b s e r v a t i o n s were used i n the c o m p u t a t i o n s . VARIABLE N MIN MAX MEAN ST. DEV. 95% CONFIDENCE INTERVALS red (cm) 70 2.2 26.5 9.9 4.6 8.8 11.0 dbh (cm) 1 1 7 0.3 16.7 3.6 3.5 3.0 4.2 ht (m) 1 66 0.5 10.9 2.5 1 .9 2.2 2.8 cw (m) 1 66 0.2 6.8 1 .3 1 . 1 1.1 1.5 toa ( y r ) 166 5.0 16.0 7.0 3.3 6.5 7.5 See Table 11 f o r e x p l a n a t i o n of a b b r e v i a t i o n s . S i n c e some p l a n t a t i o n s d i d not have measurable r o o t c o l l a r d i a m e t e r and dia m e t e r b r e a s t h e i g h t measurements, the number of o b s e r v a t i o n s i s not c o n s t a n t f o r each parameter e s t i m a t e d . However, o n l y non-zero o b s e r v a t i o n s were used i n the co m p u t a t i o n s . The mean t o t a l h e i g h t of 2.5m c o r r e s p o n d i n g t o a mean t o t a l age of seven y e a r s s u g g e s t s t h a t on the average the age t o b r e a s t h e i g h t may be l e s s than seven y e a r s i n the Vancouver F o r e s t R e g i o n . I t s h o u l d be note d , however, t h a t 30 p e r c e n t of the i n d i v i d u a l t r e e s had not y e t reached 1.3m as i n d i c a t e d by those t r e e s which d i d not have measurable d i a m e t e r b r e a s t h e i g h t . The maximum v a l u e s p r e s e n t e d i n d i c a t e an upper l i m i t •1 29 t o what might be r e a s o n a b l y e x p e c t e d from v i g o r o u s p l a n t e d open grown S i t k a s p r u c e . The d i a m e t e r b r e a s t h e i g h t and t o t a l h e i g h t s t a t i s t i c s i n d i c a t e t h a t , on the a v e r a g e , by seven y e a r s S i t k a spruce p l a n t a t i o n s s h o u l d be w e l l e s t a b l i s h e d . The h i g h percentage s u r v i v a l (see 5:6) and r a p i d e s t a b l i s h m e n t c a p a b i l i t i e s i n d i c a t e d i n T a b l e s 14 and 15 s t r o n g l y s u p p o r t s t h a t S i t k a s pruce i s a v i g o r o u s p e r f o r m e r on s u i t a b l e low r i s k w h i t e p i n e w e e v i l s i t e s i n the Vancouver F o r e s t Region. The u s e f u l n e s s of r o o t c o l l a r d i a m e t e r as a v a r i a b l e f o r e s t i m a t i n g the performance of p l a n t a t i o n grown S i t k a spruce i s q u e s t i o n a b l e as i t i s v e r y d i f f i c u l t t o measure i n young p l a n t a t i o n s . As the t r e e s mature the c h a r a c t e r i s t i c pronounced b u t t s w e l l a s s o c i a t e d w i t h S i t k a spruce o f t e n makes the measurement of r o o t c o l l a r d i a m e t e r i m p r a c t i c a l . P l a n t a t i o n e s t a b l i s h m e n t w i t h S i t k a s pruce i s a r e l a t i v e l y r e c e n t p r a c t i c e i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia. In c e r t a i n a r e a s i n the Vancouver F o r e s t Region (see F i g u r e 5 ) , where w h i t e p i n e w e e v i l damage i s m i n i m a l , S i t k a spruce o f f e r s g r e a t promise f o r r a p i d s t a n d development on s u i t a b l e s i t e s . On the Queen C h a r l o t t e I s l a n d s n a t u r a l r e g e n e r a t i o n has, i n g e n e r a l , proven v e r y e f f e c t i v e e x cept i n a r e a s d i s t a n t from a s u i t a b l e seed s o u r c e . 1 30 8:2:2 V a r i a b i l i t y of n a t u r a l S i t k a s pruce s t a n d s . The averages of v a r i a b l e s measured i n DATA GROUP I I by l o c a t i o n a r e p r e s e n t e d i n Ta b l e 15. P r i o r t o 1960 n a t u r a l r e g e n e r a t i o n was the main method of r e s t o c k i n g c u t - o v e r spruce/hemlock s t a n d s i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia. S i n c e the v i r g i n o l d growth f o r e s t s were a m i x t u r e of s e v e r a l c o n i f e r o u s and b r o a d l e a f s p e c i e s the n a t u r a l l y r e g e n e r a t e d s t a n d i s a l s o a m i x t u r e . The v e r y r a p i d r a t e of e s t a b l i s h m e n t of b r o a d l e a v e d s p e c i e s , p a r t i c u l a r l y A l d e r , B i g l e a f Maple and B l a c k Cottonwood, has o f t e n r e s u l t e d i n stands dominated by b r o a d l e a v e s w i t h the c o n i f e r s s u p p r e s s e d . T h i s d e l a y s the e s t a b l i s h m e n t of the more v a l u a b l e c o n i f e r o u s s p e c i e s and reduces the p r o d u c t i v i t y of the s i t e w h i l e a t the same time l e n g t h e n i n g the r o t a t i o n . Smith (1973) added "most stands have a complex m i x t u r e of development i n c l u d i n g a l l c o n d i t i o n s from i s o l a t e d stems t o dense clumps." Such a re the t y p e s of sta n d s r e p r e s e n t e d by DATA GROUP I I . 131 T a b l e 15. Averages of v a r i a b l e s , measured i n DATA GROUP I I , by l o c a t i o n . V a r i a b l e U.E.L U.B.C Haney Go l d R i v e r Woss Nass & Skeena Q.C. I s l a n d s number 1 1 5 82 9 10 18 1 1 re d (cm) 86.5 64.7 32.2 57.0 65.3 101.8 dbh (cm) 67.0 35. 1 21.9 36.6 46.9 55.3 dc (m) 3.5 2.6 0.8 1 .8 1 .4 l c (m) 19.4 4.9 21.8 8.6 15.7 ht (m) 36.8 19.2 9.0 31.1 24.6 32.6 cw (m) 7.7 6.6 5.1 3.6 8.9 7.8 sph 742 1 032 742 1 482 510 1383 s i (100) 42 42 30 48 36 48 baha m 2/ha 42.6 37.7 18.7 1 04 67.2 83.4 toa ( y r ) 92 43 24 59 76 82 c f f 0.37 0.41 0.42 0.41 0.39 0.38 v o l m 3/ha 593 302 72 1 337 750 1018 mai m 3/(ha.a) 6.5 7.5 2.9 22.9 8.3 13.5 See Table 11 f o r e x p l a n a t i o n of a b b r e v i a t i o n s . These mixed n a t u r a l l y r e g e n e r a t e d s t a n d s p r e s e n t a unique c h a l l e n g e t o the f o r e s t e r on the Coas t , as o f t e n the most h i g h l y p r o d u c t i v e v a l l e y bottom s i t e s a r e o c c u p i e d by low v a l u e mixed s t a n d s . The c o n v e r s i o n of thes e s t a n d s t o pure c o n i f e r i s d i f f i c u l t and c o s t l y . The n a t u r a l e c o l o g i c a l p r o c e s s w i l l i n time produce s t a n d s where b r o a d l e a v e s p l a y a s u b o r d i n a t e r o l e , however, t h i s may take s e v e r a l decades i f not l o n g e r . The q u e s t i o n a r i s e s when i s i t worth c o n v e r t i n g t h e s e s t a n d s t o pure 132 c o n i f e r ? I t i s w i d e l y a c c e p t e d t h a t the e a r l i e r the c o n v e r s i o n t a k e s p l a c e the b e t t e r , however, l i t t l e q u a n t i t a t i v e d a t a has been p u b l i s h e d on the p r o f i t a b i l i t y of c o n v e r s i o n . Smith (1977a) r e p o r t e d t h a t up t o the end of 1976, 19,000 ha had been r e l e a s e d by f o u r major f o r e s t companies i n the Vancouver F o r e s t R e g i o n , the v a s t m a j o r i t y of which was f o r s t a n d s o t h e r than S i t k a s p r u c e . T h i s s e r v e s n o n e t h e l e s s t o show the importance f o r e s t companies a r e p l a c i n g on c o n v e r s i o n of mixed s t a n d s t o c o n i f e r . The average v a l u e s f o r the v a r i a b l e s p r e s e n t e d by l o c a t i o n i n T a b l e 16 p r o v i d e some i n s i g h t i n t o the average stem and s t a n d q u a l i t y of S i t k a spruce found under n a t u r a l c o n d i t i o n s i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia. B u t t s w e l l , which i s c h a r a c t e r i s t i c of S i t k a spruce . (Woodfin, 1973), i s e v i d e n t from the r e l a t i v e l y l a r g e r r o o t c o l l a r d i a m e t e r v a l u e s when compared t o the d i a m e t e r b r e a s t h e i g h t v a l u e s f o r a l l l o c a t i o n s . However, o n l y on the Queen C h a r l o t t e I s l a n d s c o u l d the average b u t t s w e l l be r e g a r d e d t o as pronounced. Another c h a r a c t e r i s t i c of S i t k a spruce i s the p e r s i s t e n c e of dead branches almost t o ground l e v e l . T h i s i s s u p p o r t e d by the h e i g h t t o dead crown d a t a . The i m p l i c a t i o n f o r wood q u a l i t y i s t h a t on.the average the lower b o l e of i n d i v i d u a l S i t k a spruce t r e e s a r e " k n o t t y " and the p r e s ence of ' dead branches t o ground l e v e l may r e s u l t i n d e g r a d i n g of l o g q u a l i t y 133 and a s s o c i a t e d lower u n i t v a l u e . These d a t a , however, do not i n d i c a t e the average knot d i a m e t e r a l o n g the lower b o l e . While the presence of dead branches t o ground l e v e l i s common, the average knot s i z e a l o n g the lower b o l e has a p r o f o u n d e f f e c t on the g r a d i n g and thus the v a l u e of the l o g s . T h e r e f o r e , w i t h o u t i n f o r m a t i o n on average knot s i z e i t i s d i f f i c u l t t o draw i n f e r e n c e s c o n c e r n i n g the average q u a l i t y of S i t k a s p r u c e second growth l o g s . I t s h o u l d be n o t e d , t h a t average knot s i z e can be c o n t r o l l e d t h r o u g h c o n t r o l of s t a n d d e n s i t y . T h i s p r o v i d e s the f o r e s t e r w i t h a means of i n f l u e n c i n g i n d i v i d u a l t r e e and s t a n d q u a l i t y . The h e i g h t t o l i v e crown s h o u l d , i n g e n e r a l , r e f l e c t the i n f l u e n c e of s t a n d d e n s i t y a t a g i v e n age and s i t e . Dense sta n d s tend t o e x h i b i t h i g h e r average h e i g h t t o l i v e crown i n comparison t o open grown s t a n d s , as the l i v e crown and canopy r i s e w i t h i n c r e a s i n g c o m p e t i t i o n f o r the l i m i t e d r e s o u r c e s as the s t a n d matures. In g e n e r a l , the d a t a tend t o s u p p o r t t h i s phenomenon as the r e l a t i v e l y h i g h average h e i g h t t o l i v e crown are a s s o c i a t e d w i t h the more dense s t a n d s as i n d i c a t e d by the h i g h average stems per h e c t a r e v a l u e s . Average crown w i d t h a l s o r e f l e c t s the i n f l u e n c e of s t a n d d e n s i t y , f o r example, the l o w e s t average crown w i d t h v a l u e was a s s o c i a t e d w i t h the h i g h e s t average stems per h e c t a r e v a l u e (Woss Camp), and the o p p o s i t e was a l s o t r u e (Nass and Skeena). C o n t r o l of s t a n d d e n s i t y can i n f l u e n c e average crown 1 34 w i d t h , and h e i g h t t o l i v e crown. Average knot s i z e a l o n g the lower b o l e and thus q u a l i t y and v a l u e of l o g s can a l s o be c o n t r o l l e d i n d i r e c t l y t h r o u g h c o n t r o l of s t a n d d e n s i t y . I t appears t h a t , f o r S i t k a s p r u c e , h e i g h t t o dead crown i s independent of s t a n d d e n s i t y , because of the p e r s i s t e n c e of dead branches t o almost ground l e v e l even i n dense s t a n d s . High average b a s a l a r e a per h e c t a r e and volume per h e c t a r e appear t o be a s s o c i a t e d w i t h h i g h average stems per h e c t a r e as e x p e c t e d . The most i m p r e s s i v e average v a l u e s were o b t a i n e d from the sta n d s sampled near Woss Camp i n the Nimpkish V a l l e y . Here the average 60 year o l d s t a n d of pure n a t u r a l l y r e g e n e r a t e d S i t k a s pruce had an average of 1,500 stems per h e c t a r e , an average volume per h e c t a r e of 1,337 m3 and an average annu a l r a t e of volume p r o d u c t i o n of 22.9 m 3(ha. a ) . T h i s was the best s t a n d of S i t k a s pruce sampled d u r i n g the e n t i r e s t u d y . The minimum, maximum, sample mean, sample s t a n d a r d d e v i a t i o n and 95 p e r c e n t c o n f i d e n c e i n t e r v a l s about the sample mean f o r a l l the v a r i a b l e s measured i n DATA GROUP I I are p r e s e n t e d i n Ta b l e 16. These were used i n p a r t t o determine the p r e c i s i o n of the da t a and a l s o t o q u a n t i f y the v a r i a t i o n and average l e v e l s f o r a l l da t a s t u d i e d . Smith (1973) added " a n a l y s i s of average and maximum l e v e l s of v a r i a b l e s which can be i n f l u e n c e d s t r o n g l y by management ... can h e l p g i v e a f e e l f o r what might be a c h i e v e d by i n t e n s i f i c a t i o n of e f f o r t s t o 135 c o n t r o l s t o c k i n g and s t a n d d e n s i t y . The upper l i m i t s of these v a r i a b l e s ... g i v e a f a i r i n d i c a t i o n of what has o c c u r r e d w i t h o u t management i n n a t u r a l s t a n d s . " 1 36 Table 16. Minimum, maximum, mean, s t a n d a r d d e v i a t i o n , and 95% c o n f i d e n c e i n t e r v a l s about the sample mean f o r v a r i a b l e s measured i n DATA GROUP I I . Only non-zero o b s e r v a t i o n s were used i n the c o m p u t a t i o n s . VARIABLE N MIN MAX MEAN ST. DEV. 95% CONFIDENCE INTERVALS red (cm) 245 14.0 277.0 75. 1 36.5 70.6 79.7 dbh (cm) 245 9.8 106.2 51 .4 22.6 48.6 54.3 dc (m) 226 0.1 15.0 3.0 1 .9 2.7 3.2 l c (m) 235 0.2 34.8 13.5 8.8 12.4 14.7 ht (m) 245 4.5 50.6 28.6 11.4 27.1 30.0 cw (m) 245 1 .4 18.1 7.2 2.5 6.9 7.5 sph 245 98 3705 881 569 809 953 s i (100) 245 18 54 44 8.6 43 45 baha m 2/ha 245 4.0 174.0 46.2 27.4 42.8 49.7 to a ( y r ) 245 18 161 70 31 66 74 c f f 245 0.35 0.48 0.39 0.03 0.389 0.396 v o l m 3/ha 245 1 1 2182 538 392 488 587 mai m 3/(ha.a) 245 0.5 31.9 7.8 5.4 7.1 8.5 See Table 11 f o r e x p l a n a t i o n of a b b r e v i a t i o n s . The main advantage of d a t a summaries i n t h i s form i s t h a t two measures of v a r i a b i l i t y a r e p r e s e n t e d , namely, the range and s t a n d a r d d e v i a t i o n . W h i l e the maximum v a l u e s a re i m p r e s s i v e , the sample mean and 95 p e r c e n t c o n f i d e n c e i n t e r v a l s about the sample mean p r o v i d e a b e t t e r p e r s p e c t i v e of the average performance of i n d i v i d u a l t r e e and s t a n d parameters under n a t u r a l c o n d i t i o n s . 1 37 The 95 p e r c e n t c o n f i d e n c e i n t e r v a l s f o r h e i g h t t o dead crown a g a i n q u a n t i f y the p e r s i s t e n c e of dead branches and g e n e r a l l a c k of s e l f p r u n i n g a s s o c i a t e d w i t h the S i t k a s p r u c e . T h i s c o u l d suggest rough k n o t t y t r e e s and a s s o c i a t e d low v a l u e i f the average knot s i z e a l o n g the lower b o l e tends t o be l a r g e . W h i l e the maximum h e i g h t t o dead crown was 15m, the average was o n l y 3.0m and the 95 p e r c e n t c o n f i d e n c e i n t e r v a l s ranged from 2.7 t o 3.2m. In n a t u r a l open grown c o n d i t i o n s S i t k a spruce m a i n t a i n s a l i v e crown t o ground l e v e l and a s s o c i a t e d l a r g e average knot s i z e a l o n g the lower b o l e . Under t h e s e c o n d i t i o n s S i t k a spruce w i l l produce l a r g e d i m e n s i o n but v e r y rough, low grade l o g s . S i t k a spruce i s p r i m a r i l y a s s o c i a t e d w i t h r i c h a l l u v i a l r i v e r bottoms throughout i t s n a t u r a l range (see 2:6) and i t was t h e r e f o r e not s u r p r i s i n g t h a t the mean s i t e index was 44m and the 95 p e r c e n t c o n f i d e n c e i n t e r v a l s were w i t h i n + 1m. T h i s c o n f i r m s the statement (see 7:6:2) t h a t the r e s u l t s , f o r DATA GROUP I I , a re a p p l i c a b l e p r i m a r i l y t o h i g h spruce s i t e s i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia. The 95 p e r c e n t c o n f i d e n c e i n t e r v a l s f o r crown w i d t h i n d i c a t e the development of l a r g e v i g o r o u s crowns. Crown w i d t h i s a v e r y u s e f u l s t a n d parameter as i t can p r o v i d e an index of s t o c k i n g and c o m p e t i t i o n ( L i n , 1970). I t i s , however, d i f f i c u l t 138 to measure a c c u r a t e l y i n sta n d s because of the o v e r l a p p i n g of crowns w i t h i n the canopy. Wood q u a l i t y can be c o n t r o l l e d i n d i r e c t l y t h r o u g h s i l v i c u l t u r a l p r a c t i c e s such as t h i n n i n g , s p a c i n g , p r u n i n g and f e r t i l i z a t i o n . When the 95 p e r c e n t c o n f i d e n c e i n t e r v a l s f o r stems per h e c t a r e , s i t e index and t o t a l age a r e examined t o g e t h e r the average s t a n d appears t o be growing on a h i g h l y p r o d u c t i v e s i t e which i s 70 y e a r s o l d and w e l l s t o c k e d . However, when the 95 pe r c e n t c o n f i d e n c e i n t e r v a l s f o r b a s a l a r e a per h e c t a r e and volume per h e c t a r e a r e examined the consequences of t o l e r a t i n g inadequate n a t u r a l r e g e n e r a t i o n become e v i d e n t , as both parameters a r e very low f o r t h e i r age and s i t e q u a l i t y . Why ? The answer l i e s i n the f a i l u r e t o e s t a b l i s h e c o l o g i c a l l y adapted h i g h y i e l d i n g p l a n t a t i o n s s h o r t l y a f t e r l o g g i n g , and the l a c k of f o r e s t management. Volume per h e c t a r e e x h i b i t e d an i m p r e s s i v e maximum of 2,182 m 3/ha, however, such h i g h volumes are not uncommon w i t h t h i s e x c e p t i o n a l l y h i g h y i e l d i n g s p e c i e s . The mean and 95 p e r c e n t c o n f i d e n c e i n t e r v a l s do, n e v e r t h e l e s s , p r o v i d e a more r e a l i s t i c view of the average volume per h e c t a r e w i t h i n the range of the s p e c i e s samples. The range f o r mean annual increment i s i n d i c a t i v e of the enormous volume p r o d u c i n g p o t e n t i a l of t h i s c o n i f e r . A maximum of 32 m 3(ha. a) i s comparable w i t h the p r o d u c t i v i t y of 1 39 p l a n t a t i o n grown S i t k a s pruce on the b e s t m i n e r a l s i t e s i n Great B r i t a i n and I r e l a n d (see 8:2:3). The average mean annual increment of 7.8 m 3(ha. a) i s c o m p a r a t i v e l y low, and the 95 p e r c e n t c o n f i d e n c e i n t e r v a l s of 7.1 t o 8.5 m 3(ha. a) r e f l e c t an u n d e r u t i l i z a t i o n of the s p e c i e s i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia. P o s s i b l e reasons f o r the s e low 95 p e r c e n t c o n f i d e n c e i n t e r v a l s a r e (1) p o o r l y s t o c k e d s t a n d s , as i n d i c a t e d by the low 95 p e r c e n t c o n f i d e n c e i n t e r v a l s f o r b a s a l a r e a per h e c t a r e and stems per h e c t a r e , (2) the low i n t e n s i t y of f o r e s t management, (3) the l o c a t i o n of the m a j o r i t y of the p o i n t samples i n the Vancouver F o r e s t R e g i o n , and (4) f a i l u r e t o e s t a b l i s h e c o l o g i c a l l y adapted h i g h y i e l d i n g p l a n t a t i o n s s h o r t l y a f t e r l o g g i n g . Smith (1977a) r e p o r t e d t h a t the average p r o d u c t i v i t y of a l l immature stands on "good" f o r e s t l a n d i n the Vancouver F o r e s t Region i s a p p r o x i m a t e l y 9.2 m 3/(ha.a) w h i l e the average f o r the t o t a l c o a s t i s o n l y 5.3 m 3 / ( h a . a ) . These average p r o d u c t i v i t y v a l u e s r e f l e c t the r e l a t i v e l y low p r o d u c t i v i t y of n a t u r a l s t a n d s , and r e i n f o r c e the immediate need f o r more i n t e n s i v e f o r e s t management. Smith (1973) i n h i s comprehensive review on the f e a s i b i l i t y of p r e p a r i n g v a r i a b l e d e n s i t y y i e l d t a b l e s i n c l u d e d a d a t a .summary of 25 sample p l o t s of immature S i t k a spruce e x t r a c t e d from the M i n i s t r y of F o r e s t s , I n v e n t o r y D i v i s i o n d a t a . These data a r e p r e s e n t e d i n Ta b l e 17 and p r o v i d e some b a s i s f o r 140 comparison w i t h the data summaries p r e s e n t e d i n T a b l e s 16 and 17. Comparison i s d i f f i c u l t because of the d i f f e r e n t sample s i z e s , 25 v e r s u s 245. Smith's summary r e p r e s e n t s , on the average, a somewhat o l d e r age c l a s s than t h a t p r e s e n t e d i n Ta b l e 16, however h i s d a t a f a l l w e l l w i t h i n the range of the d a t a p r e v i o u s l y p r e s e n t e d . T a b l e 17. Average and maximum v a l u e s of s t a n d v a r i a b l e s f o r immature S i t k a spruce e x t r a c t e d from M i n i s t r y of F o r e s t s , I n v e n t o r y D i v i s i o n d a t a by Smith (1973). V a r i a b l e Sample s i z e Average Max imum dbh (cm) 25 47.5 75.2 ht (m) 25 36.6 45.7 sph 25 395 798 baha (m 2/ha) 25 64. 3 105.6 toa ( y e a r s ) 25 98 1 50 v o l (m 3/ha) 25 776 1 370 mai m 3/(ha.a) 25 7.9 9.1 See Table 11 f o r e x p l a n a t i o n of a b b r e v i a t i o n s . 8:2:3 Stand v a r i a b i l i t y i n Great B r i t a i n and I r e l a n d . The q u e s t i o n a r i s e s , how does s t a n d development of n a t u r a l s t a n d s compare w i t h d a t a from p l a n t a t i o n s i n Great B r i t a i n and I r e l a n d ? T h i s i s d i f f i c u l t t o answer because n a t u r a l s t a n d s have r e c e i v e d no f o r e s t management o t h e r than 141 f i r e c o n t r o l , whereas as the p l a n t a t i o n s of S i t k a spruce i n Great B r i t a i n and I r e l a n d have a l o n g h i s t o r y of i n t e n s i v e f o r e s t management which sometimes has i n c l u d e d r e g u l a r p e r i o d i c t h i n n i n g . The comparison i s f u r t h e r c o m p l i c a t e d by the f a c t t h a t n a t u r a l s t a n d s a re m i x t u r e s of s e v e r a l s p e c i e s w h i l e p l a n t a t i o n s are e s s e n t i a l l y pure S i t k a s p r u c e . To t a c k l e t h i s problem Table 18 p r e s e n t s the averages of f o u r s t a n d v a r i a b l e s from DATA GROUP I I w i t h the e q u i v a l e n t average t o t a l age f o r a range of y i e l d c l a s s e s p u b l i s h e d f o r Gr e a t B r i t a i n by H a m i l t o n and C h r i s t i e (1971). I t s h o u l d be un d e r s t o o d t h a t the B r i t i s h average stems per h e c t a r e r e f e r s t o stands which have been t h i n n e d as many as e i g h t times by the time the s t a n d i s 70 y e a r s o l d . F u r t h e r , the average b a s a l a r e a per h e c t a r e and volume per h e c t a r e v a l u e s r e f e r t o c u m u l a t i v e p r o d u c t i o n w h i l e both volume and mean annual increment a re computed up t o 7 cm t o p d i a m e t e r . Table 18. Average s t a n d development of S i t k a spruce i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia and Great B r i t a i n . V a r i a b l e Average DG I I . (B.C) Y i e l d C l a s s 8 (U.K) Y i e l d C l a s s 16 (U.K) Y i e l d C l a s s 24 (U.K) t o a ( y e a r s ) 70 70 70 70 sph 881 753 321 21 1 baha (m 2/ha) 46.2 74.2 1 04. 1 127.9 v o l (m 3/ha) 538 557 1076 1 544 mai m 3/(ha.a) 7.8 8.0 15.4 22. 1 See T a b l e 11 f o r e x p l a n a t i o n of a b b r e v i a t i o n s . From T a b l e 18 the s i m i l a r i t y among average v a l u e s f o r 142 DATA GROUP I I i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia and those f o r a 70 year o l d y i e l d c l a s s 8 s t a n d of S i t k a s pruce i n Great B r i t a i n i s noteworthy, except f o r b a s a l a r e a per h e c t a r e . However, t h e r e ends the s i m i l a r i t i e s , f o r y i e l d c l a s s e s 16 and 24 the average stems per h e c t a r e a r e low compared t o the B r i t i s h Columbia d a t a . T h i s can be a t t r i b u t e d t o p e r i o d i c f i v e year t h i n n i n g of the p l a n t a t i o n s . In c o n t r a s t , the average b a s a l a r e a per h e c t a r e , volume per h e c t a r e and mean annual increment a re more than double the B r i t i s h Columbia a v e r a g e s . I t becomes a b u n d a n t l y c l e a r from T a b l e 18 t h a t f o r a g i v e n age S i t k a spruce p l a n t a t i o n s i n Great B r i t a i n outproduce n a t u r a l S i t k a spruce s t a n d s i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia. C o n t r o l of st a n d d e n s i t y and s t o c k i n g i s u r g e n t l y r e q u i r e d i n n a t u r a l l y r e g e n e r a t e d S i t k a s p ruce stands i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia i f the f u l l volume p r o d u c i n g p o t e n t i a l of t h i s s p e c i e s i s t o be r e a l i z e d . A s t r i c t "no t h i n n i n g " p o l i c y has been adapted f o r p l a n t a t i o n s growing on h i g h r i s k windthrow s i t e s i n N o r t h e r n I r e l a n d ( P u r c e l l , 1977). Thus the comparison of u n t h i n n e d S i t k a s p ruce p l a n t a t i o n s i n N o r t h e r n I r e l a n d w i t h n a t u r a l u n t h i n n e d s t a n d s of S i t k a spruce i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia i s more i n f o r m a t i v e . K i l p a t r i c k (1978) p r o v i d e d d a t a summaries f o r u n t h i n n e d S i t k a spruce i n N o r t h e r n I r e l a n d which can be used f o r comparison p u r p o s e s . Given the d i f f e r e n c e i n the d i s t r i b u t i o n of ages between the I r i s h and Canadian d a t a , o n l y those p o i n t samples which f e l l w i t h i n a common age range were used. A comparison of average u n t h i n n e d s t a n d development of S i t k a s p r u c e , of e q u i v a l e n t age, c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia and N o r t h e r n 143 I r e l a n d i s p r e s e n t e d i n T a b l e 19. Ta b l e 19. Comparison of average u n t h i n n e d s t a n d development of S i t k a s p r u c e , of e q u i v a l e n t age, i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia and N o r t h e r n I r e l a n d . N a t l i n I i r a l ur Jr i t i s t i t h i n n e c I Columt 1 S i t k a ) i a . P l a r i n 1* i t a t i o n l o r t h e r r u nthinnec i I r e l a n d . 1 S i t k a VARIABLE N MIN MEAN MAX N MIN MEAN MAX to a ( y r ) c l a s s 1 66 18 31 41 80 12.5 21.3 40.5 sph 66 98 1 1 26 3458 80 350 2357 5200 baha m 2/ha 66 4.0 34.6 82.0 80 17.5 38.7 66.2 v o l m 3/ha 66 1 1 223 948 80 55 296 880 mai m 3/(ha.a) 66 0.5 6.9 23.7 80 4.4 13.9 21.7 See Table 11 f o r e x p l a n a t i o n of a b b r e v i a t i o n s . In g e n e r a l , the range of v a r i a b l e s i s g r e a t e r and the maximum v a l u e s a re h i g h e r i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia than i n the N o r t h e r n I r e l a n d p l a n t a t i o n s . These maximum v a l u e s h e l p e s t a b l i s h an upper l i m i t t o what might be r e a s o n a b l y expected w i t h i n n a t u r a l unmanaged s t a n d s . The maximum v a l u e s i n d i c a t e the p o t e n t i a l of the s p e c i e s , however the averages b e t t e r r e f l e c t the g e n e r a l performance of the s p e c i e s . The N o r t h e r n I r i s h d a t a r e p r e s e n t s l i g h t l y younger s t a n d s than those p r e s e n t e d f o r c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia. The average number of stems per h e c t a r e i s l e s s than h a l f the 144 average number i n N o r t h e r n I r e l a n d . The I r i s h d a t a suggest h i g h e r l e v e l s of s t o c k i n g than i n n a t u r a l s t a n d s . The average s t a n d t o t a l age of 21.3 y e a r s i n N o r t h e r n I r e l a n d has a c o r r e s p o n d i n g average volume per h e c t a r e of 296 m3 and an average mean annual increment of 13.9 m 3/(ha.a). The average s t a n d t o t a l age of 31 i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia has an average volume per h e c t a r e of 222 m3 and an average mean annual increment of o n l y 6.9 m 3/(ha.a). T h i s s u g g e s t s , t h a t on the average, a 21 year o l d N o r t h e r n I r e l a n d u n t h i n n e d S i t k a spruce p l a n t a t i o n o utproduces a 31 y e a r o l d n a t u r a l s t a n d of S i t k a spruce i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia. Why the d i f f e r e n c e ? The answer appears t o l i e i n (1) denser l e v e l of s t o c k i n g , (2) g r e a t e r c o n t r o l of s t o c k i n g , (3) p o s s i b l e d i f f e r e n c e s i n s i t e q u a l i t y and (4) g r e a t e r l e v e l of i n t e n s i v e f o r e s t management i n N o r t h e r n I r e l a n d . 8:2:4 P r o d u c t i v i t y of S i t k a s p r u c e . The mean annual increment a t 70 y e a r s of even-aged n a t u r a l s t a n d s of S i t k a spruce and western hemlock, i n c l u d i n g a l l t r e e s g r e a t e r than 7 cm d i a m e t e r b r e a s t h e i g h t , ranged from 4.6 t o 21 m 3/(ha.a) (Meyer, 1937). Age of c u l m i n a t i o n of mean annual increment f o r a l l s i t e c l a s s e s was 70 y e a r s i n Meyer's n a t u r a l s t a n d y i e l d t a b l e s . 145 The range and average mean annual increment f o r S i t k a s p ruce i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia, G r e a t B r i t a i n and I r e l a n d i s p r e s e n t e d i n T a b l e 20. Tab l e 20. Average p r o d u c t i v i t y of S i t k a spruce i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia, Great B r i t a i n and I r e l a n d i n m 3/(ha.a). Region Minimum Average Maximum C o a s t a l B.C. 0.5 7.8 31 .9 Great B r i t a i n . 6.0 12.0 24.0 E i r e . 6.0 14.4 30.0 N. I r e l a n d . 6.0 14.8 30.0 The range i n d i c a t e s t h a t S i t k a spruce i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia has the p o t e n t i a l t o r e a c h a maximum of 31.9 m 3/(ha.a) under n a t u r a l unmanaged c o n d i t i o n s . T h i s i s e n c o u r a g i n g , however, the average of 7.8 m 3/(ha.a) i s v e r y low when compared t o the o t h e r r e g i o n s i n Ta b l e 20. The minimum v a l u e s p r e s e n t e d f o r Great B r i t a i n and I r e l a n d were the minimum p r o d u c t i v i t y of S i t k a s pruce r e p o r t e d i n the B r i t i s h F o r e s t r y Commission Management T a b l e s (1971) and do not t r u l y r e p r e s e n t the minimum p r o d u c t i v i t y of S i t k a s pruce i n these r e g i o n s . In c o n t r a s t the B r i t i s h Columbia minimum of 0.5 m 3/(ha.a) was r e c o r d e d i n a v e r y young s t a n d t h a t had j u s t begun t o accumulate measurable volume per h e c t a r e . The average and maximum p r o d u c t i v i t y of S i t k a spruce 1 46 i n N o r t h e r n I r e l a n d and E i r e a r e g r e a t e r than t h o s e p u b l i s h e d f o r the U.K. I t has been q u e s t i o n e d whether the B r i t i s h F o r e s t r y Commission Management T a b l e s a r e indeed a p p l i c a b l e t o p l a n t a t i o n s i n I r e l a n d ( K i l p a t r i c k , 1978). He suggested t h a t they may not be a p p r o p r i a t e . The average p r o d u c t i v i t y of S i t k a spruce i n N o r t h e r n I r e l a n d i s 14.8 m 3 / ( h a . a ) , i n E i r e i s 14.4 m 3/(ha.a) P u r c e l l (1977), and i n Gr e a t B r i t a i n 12.0 m 3/(ha.a) C h r i s t i e and L i n e s (1979). The lower mean annual increment i n E i r e and Great B r i t a i n may be a t t r i b u t e d t o the l a r g e r a rea of S i t k a s pruce p l a n t a t i o n s of v a r y i n g s i t e q u a l i t y . 8:2:5 Management of S i t k a s p r u c e . I f indeed d i f f e r e n c e s i n p r o d u c t i v i t y of S i t k a spruce i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia, Great B r i t a i n and I r e l a n d can be a t t r i b u t e d t o the degree of f o r e s t management, i n what r e s p e c t s does management of n a t u r a l s t a n d s d i f f e r from p l a n t a t i o n management ? In c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia the h i s t o r y o f f o r e s t management of S i t k a s pruce i s one of A-frame l o g g i n g of the m a g n i f i c e n t o l d growth s t a n d s a l o n g the c o a s t f o r a i r p l a n e lumber i n the 1914-18 and 1939-44 p e r i o d s (see 10:1). The s p e c i e s was sought f o r i t s many f i n e t e c h n i c a l p r o p e r t i e s (see 1:1) and i n r e c e n t y e a r s has been i n h i g h demand f o r c o n s t r u c t i o n and a v a r i e t y of s p e c i a l i z e d uses i n Japan. In 147 s h o r t , f o r e s t e r s i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia have enjoy e d the seemingly b o u n d l e s s abundance of m a g n i f i c e n t o l d growth S i t k a spruce s t a n d s . Such stands are v e r y r a p i d l y becoming a t h i n g of the p a s t . The awareness t h a t the r e s o u r c e i s not " b o u n d l e s s " has s t i m u l a t e d a keen i n t e r e s t i n i n t e n s i v e f o r e s t management. In c o n t r a s t , Great B r i t a i n and I r e l a n d h a v i n g been denuded of the n a t u r a l oak and p i n e f o r e s t s c e n t u r i e s ago, have a l o n g h i s t o r y of extreme s h o r t a g e of wood. B r i t i s h and I r i s h f o r e s t e r s were c h a l l e n g e d t o c r e a t e p l a n t a t i o n s of e x o t i c s p e c i e s i n a r e a s which had remained denuded f o r c e n t u r i e s . S i t k a spruce has proven one of the most p r o m i s i n g e x o t i c s p e c i e s i n t r o d u c e d i n t o G reat B r i t a i n and I r e l a n d . I t can be seen t h a t f o r e s t management i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia d e v e l o p e d from an awareness of a d w i n d l i n g abundance w h i l e i n Great B r i t a i n and I r e l a n d f o r e s t management has d e v e l o p e d from the r e a l i t y of extreme s h o r t a g e of wood. F o r e s t management of S i t k a s p r u c e has t h e r e f o r e e v o l v e d d i f f e r e n t l y i n both r e g i o n s and Ta b l e 21 summarizes the s i m i l a r i t i e s and d i f f e r e n c e s i n management of S i t k a s pruce i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h C olumbia, Great B r i t a i n and I r e l a n d . 148 T a b l e 21. Management of S i t k a spruce i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h C o l umbia, Great B r i t a i n and I r e l a n d . F a c t o r C o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia Great B r i t a i n and I r e l a n d E x t e n t (ha) PRFR 278,969 VFR 121,392 U.K 280,000 E i r e 115,121 N. I r e l a n d 31,939 T o t a l a r e a (ha) 400,361 427,060 E c o l o g i c a l c l a s s i f i c a t i o n E d a t o p i c g r i d s K r a j i n a (1969). E d a t o p i c g r i d s Anderson (1950). Seed source Nat i v e provenances. PNW p r i o r t o 1922, and QCI s i n c e i n Great B r i t a i n . In I r e l a n d , QCI p r i o r t o 1970, w i t h Van' I s . and N. Wash' s i n c e . Regenerat i o n N a t u r a l -r e g e n e r a t i o n and some p l a n t i n g . A f f o r e s t a t i o n of p e a t l a n d and some r e f o r e s t a t i o n . Tree s p e c i e s s e l e c t i o n . K l i n k a ' s g u i d e , o l d growth i n d i c a t o r s and l o c a l e x p e r i e n c e . Provenance r e s e a r c h , l o c a l e x p e r i e n c e , and Anderson (1950). P l a n t i n g s t o c k 2+0 b a r e r o o t and some c o n t a i n e r s . 2+0 b a r e r o o t and some c o n t a i n e r s . S i t e p r e p a r a t i o n O c c a s i o n a l b r o a d c a s t burns. P l o u g h i n g , and fenc i n g . F e r t i l i z a t i o n E x p e r i m e n t a l a p p l i c a t i o n s o n l y . E x t e n s i v e a p p l i c a t i o n of N, P, K. Stock c o n t r o l J u v e n i l e s p a c i n g , no o p e r a t i o n a l t h i n n i n g . G r a s s c l e a n i n g , b e a t i n g up and commercial t h i n n i n g Major l i m i t a t i o n of management White p i n e w e e v i l i n the Vancouver F o r e s t R e g i o n . A v a i l a b i l i t y of l a n d , and s e v e r e exposure t o w e s t e r l y winds. 149 The most i n t e r e s t i n g f a c t a r i s i n g from T a b l e 21 i s t h a t t h e r e i s more area of S i t k a spruce i n Great B r i t a i n and  I r e l a n d than i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia. T h i s r e f l e c t s the tremendous f i n a n c i a l investment and emphasis t h a t B r i t i s h and I r i s h f o r e s t o r g a n i z a t i o n s have p l a c e d on S i t k a s p r u c e . Remarkable e x p a n s i o n of the f o r e s t e s t a t e i n Great B r i t a i n and I r e l a n d has o c c u r r e d s i n c e the 1950's i n response t o the s u c c e s s f u l development of p l o u g h i n g t e c h n i q u e s on the e x t e n s i v e p e a t l a n d s of Great B r i t a i n and I r e l a n d . From Table 21 and c h a p t e r f i v e i t i s e v i d e n t t h a t i n t e n s i v e f o r e s t management of S i t k a s pruce i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia has o n l y j u s t begun. For the f i r s t time i n the h i s t o r y of f o r e s t r y i n B r i t i s h Columbia t h e r e e x i s t s a v e r y r e a l p o s s i b i l i t y of a s h o r t a g e of t i m b e r w i t h i n the next s e v e r a l decades. T h i s p r e d i c t e d " f a l l d o w n " i n the p r o v i n c i a l annual a l l o w a b l e c u t c o u l d have s e r i o u s economic and s o c i a l consequences f o r the f o r e s t i n d u s t r y i n the P r o v i n c e . The awareness of t h i s p r e d i c t e d " f a l l d o w n " has g r e a t l y s t i m u l a t e d the e v o l u t i o n of i n t e n s i v e f o r e s t management and much has been a c c o m p l i s h e d i n the l a s t two decades. The c o n c e n t r a t i o n of the f o r e s t management t h r u s t has been p r i m a r i l y on p r i v a t e l y managed f o r e s t l a n d s p a r t i c u l a r l y i n the Vancouver F o r e s t Region (Smith, 1977a). L i t t l e emphasis has been p l a c e d on the enormous volume p r o d u c i n g p o t e n t i a l of S i t k a spruce or i t s management i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia u n t i l r e c e n t l y . 150 In c o n t r a s t i n Great B r i t a i n and I r e l a n d the extreme s h o r t a g e of home produced wood f i b r e has r e s u l t e d i n a v e r y heavy r e l i a n c e on imported S c a n d i n a v i a n and Canadian lumber and p u l p . I n t e n s i v e f o r e s t management has, of n e c e s s i t y , been p r a c t i c e d f o r decades i n an attempt t o reduce dependence on imported wood. The major l i m i t a t i o n t o management of S i t k a spruce d i f f e r s between the g e o g r a p h i c r e g i o n s of i n t e r e s t . The w h i t e p i n e w e e v i l has l i m i t e d management of S i t k a spruce t o the P r i n c e Rupert F o r e s t Region. U n l i k e the M i n i s t r y of F o r e s t s , the government a g e n c i e s r e s p o n s i b l e f o r f o r e s t r y i n Great B r i t a i n and I r e l a n d r e l y h e a v i l y upon a c c q u i s i t i o n of m a r g i n a l a g r i c u l t u r a l l a n d and p e a t l a n d f o r ex p a n s i o n of the f o r e s t e s t a t e . C o m p e t i t i o n f o r these l a n d s has i n c r e a s e d enormously i n the past decade i n response t o membership of the European Economic Community. The a v a i l a b i l i t y of l a n d f o r a f f o r e s t a t i o n i s the major l i m i t i n g f a c t o r t o management of the s p e c i e s i n Great B r i t a i n and I r e l a n d . In f a c t , the f o r e s t r y e s t a t e i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia has d e c l i n e d ( S m i t h , 1977a) and w i l l d e c l i n e f u r t h e r . The Vancouver Sun (1981) added "The f o r e s t m i n i s t r y , which "owns" 94 p e r c e n t of the p r o v i n c e ' s f o r e s t l a n d , e s t i m a t e s t h a t 22 p e r c e n t of the p r o v i n c e ' s f o r e s t l a n d w i l l be l o s t t o o t h e r uses i n the next 20 y e a r s " . In c o n t r a s t , the f o r e s t r y e s t a t e s of Great B r i t a i n and I r e l a n d a re i n a ex p a n s i o n p o s i t i o n , a l b e i t d i m i n i s h i n g . The d i m i n i s h i n g s u p p l y of f o r e s t l a n d w i l l r e s u l t i n the n e c e s s i t y t o i n t e n s i f y f o r e s t management 151 on those l a n d s d e d i c a t e d t o f o r e s t r y i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h C o lumbia, Great B r i t a i n and I r e l a n d . The t h r e a t of windblow i s e x t r e m e l y h i g h p a r t i c u l a r l y i n western r e g i o n s of S c o t l a n d , Wales and I r e l a n d ( C h r i s t i e and L i n e s , 1979; Moore, 1976; MacKenzie, 1976). S e v e r a l major windblows i n m a i n l a n d Europe and Great B r i t a i n and I r e l a n d w i t h i n the l a s t decade have l e d t o a s t r i c t "no t h i n n i n g " p o l i c y on u n s t a b l e h i g h r i s k a r e a s , a n o t a b l e example b e i n g i n N o r t h e r n I r e l a n d . As more r e l i a n c e i s p l a c e d on p l a n t a t i o n e s t a b l i s h m e n t and management i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia i n the coming decades, the problem w i t h windthrow i s l i k e l y t o i n c r e a s e p a r t i c u l a r l y i n exposed western a r e a s . However, g i v e n t h a t heavy r e l i a n c e on n a t u r a l stands s t i l l e x i s t s on the c o a s t and t h i n n i n g i s not widespread the problem of s t a b i l t y i s minor here compared t o t h a t of Great B r i t a i n and I r e l a n d . 8:2:6 Management s t r a t e g y f o r S i t k a s p r u c e . Given the importance of S i t k a s pruce i n Western Europe i t i s p e r t i n e n t t o examine b r i e f l y the t r e n d s i n management of S i t k a spruce p a r t i c u l a r l y i n Great B r i t a i n and I r e l a n d . H i s t o r i c a l l y , c l a s s i c a l c o n t i n e n t a l s i l v i c u l t u r a l p r a c t i c e s have i n f l u e n c e d p r a c t i c e i n Great B r i t a i n and I r e l a n d , however the a p p r o p r i a t e n e s s of c l a s s i c a l t e c h n i q u e s i n r e l a t i o n t o S i t k a spruce has been c h a l l e n g e d (Moore and W i l s o n , 1970; Moore, 152 1976). Moore based h i s c r i t i c i s m on two f a c t o r s : f i r s t l y S i t k a s p ruce i s an o c e a n i c s p e c i e s and s e c o n d l y the c l i m a t e of Great B r i t a i n and I r e l a n d i s d i s t i n c t l y m a r i t i m e . Moore ad v o c a t e d the e v o l u t i o n of s i l v i c u l t u r a l p r a c t i c e s adapted t o the m a r i t i m e c l i m a t e and s p e c i e s of Great B r i t a i n and I r e l a n d , and s u b s e q u e n t l y developed the " o c e a n i c system". The concept of the o c e a n i c system which emphasizes the development of i n d i v i d u a l t r e e s has been accompanied by a s t r o n g t r e n d towards wider s p a c i n g . Edwards and Grayson (1979) have documented t h i s t r e n d and a n a l y s e d the p o s s i b i l i t y of r e s p a c i n g S i t k a spruce p l a n t a t i o n s which were e s t a b l i s h e d a t c l o s e s p a c i n g . They c o n c l u d e d t h a t ".. the s p a c i n g l i k e l y t o y i e l d maximum net d i s c o u n t e d revenue l i e s i n the range 1.8 t o 2.4m" and they d i d not recommend f u r t h e r f i n a n c i a l investment i n r e s p a c i n g . From a f o r e s t management s t a n d p o i n t the q u e s t i o n a r i s e s , how s h o u l d n a t u r a l S i t k a spruce stands be managed i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia ? A c l e a r d e f i n i t i o n of the o b j e c t i v e s of f o r e s t management f o r a g i v e n s i t e i s a p r e r e q u i s i t e t o management, as the management s t r a t e g y d i f f e r s depending on the o b j e c t i v e s . W i t h i n the c o n t e x t of a p r e d i c t e d " f a l l d o w n " i n the p r o v i n c i a l a nnual a l l o w a b l e c ut (see 8:2:1) S i t k a spruce may be managed p r i m a r i l y as a volume and v a l u e p r o d u c e r . A management regime d e s i g n e d t o produce the maximum volume and v a l u e of i n d i v i d u a l t r e e s has been advocated f o r many y e a r s by Smith (1977c) who 1 53 s t a t e d " q u i c k growth of l a r g e t r e e s t o h i g h s t a n d d e n s i t i e s i n managed s t a n d s i s l i k e l y t o r e s u l t i n much h i g h e r and more v a l u a b l e y i e l d s than can be o b t a i n e d from n a t u r a l s t a n d s " . He c o n t i n u e d " i t i s e s s e n t i a l t h a t f u l l c o n s i d e r a t i o n be g i v e n t o enhancing v a l u e as w e l l as volume of wood, l o g s , t r e e s and s t a n d s . The s u r e s t way t o improve q u a l i t y i s t o i n c r e a s e average s i z e and u n i f o r m i t y of t r e e s t o be p r o c e s s e d . " Smith (I977d) s t u d i e d the i n f l u e n c e of s p a c i n g i n b o l e q u a l i t y of s e v e r a l i m p o r t a n t commercial c o n i f e r s i n B r i t i s h Columbia and c o n c l u d e d t h a t " i t does not appear as i f wide s p a c i n g i s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h major r e d u c t i o n s i n l o g q u a l i t y " . He has produced p r e l i m i n a r y g u i d e l i n e s f o r s p a c i n g and t h i n n i n g stands i n B r i t i s h Columbia (Smith, I977e). He c o n t i n u e d "the r a p i d a n n u a l growth r a t e s i n yo u t h a r e used t o suggest t h a t e a r l y c o n t r o l of s t a n d d e n s i t y can c o n c e n t r a t e growth on fewer stems and t h e r e b y enhance average d i a m e t e r b r e a s t h e i g h t . I t i s suggested t h a t no more than 400 and as few as 200 stems per a c r e can c a p t u r e the growth p o t e n t i a l s of most s i t e s " . Smith has l o n g been an advocate of wide s p a c i n g and on " c o n c e n t r a t i n g the growth on l a r g e r t r e e s by m a n i p u l a t i o n of s t a n d d e n s i t y i n young s t a n d s " . He c o n t i n u e d "because of the low p e r c e n t crown co v e r and lower number of t r e e s per a c r e o b s e r v e d i n average n a t u r a l s t a n d s i t appears r e a s o n a b l e t h a t f u l l s t o c k i n g and optimum d e n s i t y c o u l d double the y i e l d o b s e r v e d i n n a t u r a l s t a n d s " . The s t r a t e g y a d v o c a t e d by Smith c o u l d not be more a p p r o p r i a t e w i t h i n the c o n t e x t of a p r e d i c t e d " f a l l d o w n " i n B r i t i s h Columbia. 154 F o r e s t e r s must a l s o be aware of the premiums t h a t e x i s t f o r t o p q u a l i t y l o g s i n the p r o v i n c e . Smith (1977c) added " a p a r t from p r o d u c t i o n of c l e a r wood, p i e c e s i z e i s the most i m p o r t a n t d e t e r m i n a n t of s t a n d q u a l i t y . C l e a r s a r e now v a l u e d a t 5 or 6 tim e s the p r i c e of No. 3 lumber .... f o r t u n a t e l y the deep crown k i n d of t r e e s t h a t g i v e b i g d i a m e t e r s and h i g h y i e l d s a re a l s o l i k e l y t o grow w e l l above average i n h e i g h t , s u r v i v e b e t t e r and c o n c e n t r a t e y i e l d s on fewer, more u n i f o r m stems". T h i s management s t r a t e g y of wide s p a c i n g and the s m a l l e s t number of stems per u n i t a r e a i s l i k e l y t o p r o v i d e maximum volume and v a l u e of i n d i v i d u a l t r e e s . Smith (I977e) s t a t e d ".. t h e r e i s an urgent need t o q u a n t i f y f o r a l l major s p e c i e s groups the premiums p r e s e n t l y and p o t e n t i a l l y a v a i l a b l e f o r p i e c e s i z e and q u a l i t y . I t i s l i k e l y t h a t such r e s e a r c h w i l l show many advantages t o be g a i n e d from c o n c e n t r a t i n g growth on the s m a l l e s t number of good t r e e s . S t u d i e s a r e a l s o needed t o det e r m i n e what f r a c t i o n of p l a n t e d or n a t u r a l t r e e s w i l l be of s u f f i c i e n t q u a l i t y t o m e r i t r e t e n t i o n f o r h a r v e s t " . How can f o r e s t r y i n Gr e a t B r i t a i n and I r e l a n d b e n e f i t from an u n d e r s t a n d i n g of f o r e s t r y p r a c t i c e s i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia and v i c e v e r s a ? The d i f f e r e n t economic, s o c i a l and h i s t o r i c a l 155 background of f o r e s t r y i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h C o lumbia, Great B r i t a i n and I r e l a n d has r e s u l t e d i n the e v o l u t i o n of f o r e s t r y p r a c t i c e s most s u i t e d t o the immediate c h a l l e n g e s of the s p e c i f i c environment and t i m e s . In B r i t i s h Columbia the c h a l l e n g e has been t o h a r v e s t , p r o c e s s and market the b o u n t i f u l h a r v e s t of c e n t u r i e s of f o r e s t biomass a c c u m u l a t i o n . H e r e i n l i e s the e x p e r t i s e of B r i t i s h Columbian f o r e s t e r s . In c o n t r a s t , B r i t i s h and I r i s h f o r e s t e r s c h a l l e n g e d by extreme s h o r t a g e of wood f i b r e have s u c c e s s f u l l y i n t r o d u c e d e x o t i c s p e c i e s , r e c l a i m e d e x t e n s i v e a r e a s of u n p r o d u c t i v e p e a t l a n d s and produced i n t e n s i v e l y managed p l a n t a t i o n s . In a n u t s h e l l , t h e r e f o r e , B r i t i s h Columbian f o r e s t r y e x p e r t i s e l i e s i n h a r v e s t i n g , wood p r o c e s s i n g and m a r k e t i n g of f o r e s t p r o d u c t s , w h i l e B r i t i s h and I r i s h f o r e s t r y e x p e r t i s e l i e s i n l a n d r e c l a m a t i o n , e s t a b l i s h m e n t and i n t e n s i v e management of e x o t i c p l a n t a t i o n s . I n t e n s i v e f o r e s t management of c o a s t a l c o n i f e r o u s s p e c i e s i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia s h o u l d be guided by p l a n t a t i o n e x p e r i e n c e w i t h t h e s e s p e c i e s i n Great B r i t a i n and I r e l a n d r a t h e r than by c o n t i n e n t a l European e x p e r i e n c e , as the e c o l o g y of the s p e c i e s and the c l i m a t e a r e d i s t i n c t l y m a r i t i m e . Given the r e l a t i v e e x p e r i e n c e and e x p e r t i s e of f o r e s t e r s on both c o n t i n e n t s exchange of i n f o r m a t i o n can o n l y l e a d t o more e f f i c i e n t f o r e s t management. 1 56 8:3 A n a l y s i s p a r t two. The o b j e c t i v e of t h i s p a r t i s t o c h a r a c t e r i z e the r e l a t i o n s h i p s between i n d i v i d u a l t r e e and s t a n d parameters i n the sense of d e t e r m i n i n g the e x t e n t , s t r e n g t h and a s s o c i a t i o n among these p a r a m e t e r s . The a p p r o p r i a t e s t a t i s t i c a l methodology has been o u t l i n e d i n d e t a i l by Z a r ( l 9 7 4 ) , Kleinbaum and Kupper (1978) and Mac S i u r t a i n (1981). 8:3:1 R e s u l t s and management i m p l i c a t i o n s . The c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t may be used t o c h a r a c t e r i z e the e x t e n t , s t r e n g t h and a s s o c i a t i o n between two v a r i a b l e s , X and Y, which may not be f u n c t i o n a l l y dependent upon one a n o t h e r . As such i t i s a v e r y i n f o r m a t i v e s t a t i s t i c , however, i t s l i m i t a t i o n s s h o u l d be c l e a r l y u n d e r s t o o d . The c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t i s an un b i a s e d e s t i m a t e of the p o p u l a t i o n c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t and the q u e s t i o n a r i s e s whether t h e r e i s , i n f a c t , a s i g n i f i c a n t c o r r e l a t i o n between two v a r i a b l e s i n the p o p u l a t i o n ? T h i s may be f o r m a l i z e d i n t o a n u l l h y p o t h e s i s , denoted by "Ho", as f o l l o w s : Ho: the p o p u l a t i o n c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t between X and Y i s z e r o . T h i s i s m a t h e m a t i c a l l y e q u i v a l e n t t o b o t h : Ho: the s l o p e of the r e g r e s s i o n l i n e between X and Y i s e q u a l t o 157 z e r o , and Ho: X does not p r o v i d e s i g n i f i c a n t i n f o r m a t i o n f o r the p r e d i c t i o n of Y. Give n t h a t the t e s t s t a t i s t i c can be computed e n t i r e l y i n terms of the c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t , r , and the sample s i z e , n, t h i s t e s t may be performed w i t h o u t a c t u a l l y h a v i n g t o f i t the s t r a i g h t l i n e model t o the d a t a . By i n c l u s i o n of the r e s u l t s of the h y p o t h e s i s of z e r o c o r r e l a t i o n , the c o r r e l a t i o n m a t r i x i s made much more i n f o r m a t i v e , and t h i s , though not common, i s h i g h l y recommended. The z e r o - o r d e r c o r r e l a t i o n m a t r i x and h y p o t h e s i s r e s u l t s f o r the t h r e e main v a r i a b l e s i n DATA GROUP I are p r e s e n t e d i n T a b l e 22. Ta b l e 22. Ze r o - o r d e r c o r r e l a t i o n m a t r i x , and h y p o t h e s i s r e s u l t s , f o r the t h r e e main v a r i a b l e s i n DATA GROUP I . Sample s i z e , n=166, rounding t o t h r e e s i g n i f i c a n t d i g i t s . - V a r i a b l e cw 1.000 ht 0.804* 1.000 toa 0.779* 0.883* 1.000 cw ht t o a NOTE: 'F' = f a i l t o r e j e c t Ho. '*' = r e j e c t Ho a t 0.05 s i g n i f i c a n c e l e v e l . Immediately e v i d e n t a re the h i g h p o s i t i v e c o r r e l a t i o n s between a l l t h r e e v a r i a b l e s crown w i d t h , t o t a l h e i g h t and t o t a l age. These c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s a r e c o n s i d e r e d good 1 58 e s t i m a t e s of the unknown p o p u l a t i o n parameters because these v a r i a b l e s c o u l d be measured w i t h g r e a t e r p r e c i s i o n (see Table 11). I t i s not s u r p r i s i n g t h a t the r e s u l t s of the t e s t f o r z e r o c o r r e l a t i o n i n d i c a t e a s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e from z e r o i n a l l c a s e s , as the v a r i a b l e s a re known t o be h i g h l y c o r r e l a t e d . The magnitude of the i n d i v i d u a l c o e f f i c i e n t s would a l s o suggest r e j e c t i o n of the h y p o t h e s i s . The s t r e n g t h of the l i n e a r r e l a t i o n s h i p between any two v a r i a b l e s can be q u i c k l y o b t a i n e d by s q u a r i n g the z e r o - o r d e r c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t . The r e s u l t i n g s t a t i s t i c , o f t e n r e f e r r e d t o as the m u l t i p l e c o e f f i c i e n t of d e t e r m i n a t i o n , i s denoted by r 2 . The l a r g e r the v a l u e of r 2 the s t r o n g e r i s the l i n e a r r e l a t i o n s h i p between t h e two v a r i a b l e s . From t h i s we may co n c l u d e t h a t the s t r e n g t h of the l i n e a r r e l a t i o n s h i p between v a r i a b l e s i n DATA GROUP I a r e as f o l l o w s : crown w i d t h and t o t a l age r 2 = 0.607 t o t a l h e i g h t and crown w i d t h r 2 = 0.646 t o t a l h e i g h t and t o t a l age r 2 = 0.780 W h i l e these s t a t i s t i c s suggest t h a t a s i g n i f i c a n t s t r a i g h t l i n e r e l a t i o n s h i p does e x i s t between the two v a r i a b l e s , r 2 does not measure the magnitude of the s l o p e of the r e g r e s s i o n l i n e , nor does i t i n d i c a t e t h a t the l i n e a r model i s a p p r o p r i a t e . I t does, however, o f t e n p r o v i d e a l o g i c a l s t a r t i n g p o i n t i n the 159 p u r s u i t of the t r u e unknown r e l a t i o n s h i p between the v a r i a b l e s i n q u e s t i o n (see c h a p t e r n i n e ) . The c o r r e l a t i o n m a t r i x r e v e a l s which independent v a r i a b l e i s most h i g h l y c o r r e l a t e d w i t h a g i v e n dependent v a r i a b l e . Draper and Smith (1966) p o i n t e d out " c o r r e l a t i o n s have an i m p o r t a n t r o l e t o p l a y i n some v a r i a b l e s e l e c t i o n p r o c e d u r e s . ... i n some of these we w i s h t o add independent v a r i a b l e s one by one t o the p o s t u l a t e d model. The f i r s t independent v a r i a b l e p l a c e d i n the p o s t u l a t e d model i s chosen as one which i s most h i g h l y c o r r e l a t e d w i t h Y...". T h i s has im p o r t a n t s t a t i s t i c a l i m p l i c a t i o n s and w i l l be r e f e r e n c e d a g a i n i n - c h a p t e r n i n e . The z e r o - o r d e r c o r r e l a t i o n m a t r i x and h y p o t h e s i s r e s u l t s f o r the t h i r t e e n v a r i a b l e s i n DATA GROUP I I a r e p r e s e n t e d i n Ta b l e 23. 160 Tab l e 23. Z e r o - o r d e r c o r r e l a t i o n m a t r i x , and h y p o t h e s i s r e s u l t s , f o r the t h i r t e e n v a r i a b l e s i n DATA GROUP I I . Sample s i z e , n=245, rou n d i n g t o t h r e e s i g n i f i c a n t d i g i t s . rVar i a b l e r e d 1 .000 dbh 0.801* 1 .000 dc 0.297* 0.370* 1 .000 l c 0.452* 0.628* 0.354* 1 .000 ht 0.615* 0.820* 0.391* 0.840* 1 .000 cw 0.634* 0.643* 0.228* 0.156* 0.376* sph -0.257* -0.333* -0.138* -0.168* 0.220* s i 0.238* 0.258* 0.152* 0.212* 0.387* baha -0.061F -0.064F -0.026F 0.275* 0.219* to a 0.497* 0.693* 0.392* 0.724* 0.808* c f f -0.762* 0.941* -0.331* -0.554* -0.730* v o l 0.145* 0.223* 0.097F 0.559* 0.555* ma i -0.125F -0.170* -0.101F 0.167* 0.149* re d dbh dc l c ht cw 1 .000 sph -0.354* 1 .000 s i 0.129* 0.171* 1 .000 baha -0.228* 0.327* 0. 119F 1 .000 to a 0.320* -0.287* -0.098F 0.237* 1 .000 c f f -0.661* 0.389* -0.222* 0.092F -0.654* v o l -0.089F 0.135* 0.220* 0.905* 0.489* mai -0.324* 0.432* 0.408* 0.856* -0.072F cw sph s i baha t o a c f f 1 .000 v o l -0.174* 1 .000 mai 0.222* 0.770* 1 .000 c f f v o l mai NOTE: 'F' = f a i l t o r e j e c t Ho. '*' = r e j e c t Ho a t 0.05 s i g n i f i c a n c e l e v e l . Immediately e v i d e n t i s the s u b s t a n t i a l number of n e g a t i v e c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s . Stand v a r i a b l e s , stems per h e c t a r e , b a s a l a r e a per h e c t a r e , and mean annual increment a l l have low n e g a t i v e c o r r e l a t i o n s w i t h the i n d i v i d u a l t r e e v a r i a b l e s r o o t c o l l a r d i a m e t e r , d i a m e t e r b r e a s t h e i g h t , h e i g h t t o dead crown, and crown w i d t h . In s e v e r a l i n s t a n c e s the 161 h y p o t h e s i s of z e r o c o r r e l a t i o n was not r e j e c t e d which s u g g e s t s t h a t , i n t h e s e c a s e s , the two v a r i a b l e s appear u n r e l a t e d . Some s i g n i f i c a n t n e g a t i v e c o r r e l a t i o n s make sound s i l v i c u l t u r a l sense. For example, h i g h v a l u e s of stems per h e c t a r e a r e o f t e n a s s o c i a t e d w i t h low average crown w i d t h and diameter b r e a s t h e i g h t v a l u e s , due t o i n c r e a s e d c o m p e t i t i o n w i t h i n the s t a n d . The m a j o r i t y of the c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s a r e p o s i t i v e and s i g n i f i c a n t l y d i f f e r e n t from z e r o . Volume per h e c t a r e was p o s i t i v e l y c o r r e l a t e d w i t h a l l v a r i a b l e s except crown w i d t h , the n o n - s i g n i f i c a n t c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t f o r which s u g g e s t s t h a t the two v a r i a b l e s appear u n r e l a t e d . The e x p l a n a t i o n f o r t h i s may l i e i n the f a c t t h a t the crown w i d t h i n q u e s t i o n i s t h a t of the c e n t r e t r e e , and not the average crown w i d t h of the s t a n d which may be c o r r e l a t e d w i t h volume per h e c t a r e . The low c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t between volume per h e c t a r e and stems per h e c t a r e may appear unusual a t f i r s t , however, as n a t u r a l stands mature the volume of the s i t e i s o f t e n c a r r i e d on ve r y few stems. T h i s p a r t i c u l a r c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t i s s t a t i s t i c a l l y m a r g i n a l because the h y p o t h e s i s i s r e j e c t e d a t the 0.05 l e v e l of s i g n i f i c a n c e but not a t the 0.10 l e v e l . A p o s s i b l e e x p l a n a t i o n l i e s i n the v a r i a t i o n among the sample p o i n t s , t r e e s i z e , s t o c k i n g and s t a n d d e n s i t y . 1 62 The n o n - s i g n i f i c a n t r e s u l t between t o t a l age and mean annual increment i n these d a t a s u g g e s t s t h a t t o t a l age of the c e n t r e t r e e i s of no p r e d i c t i v e v a l u e i n e s t i m a t i n g mean annual i n c r e m e n t . The same comment i s a p p l i c a b l e t o the r e l a t i o n s h i p between b a s a l a r e a per h e c t a r e and s i t e i n d e x . The main management i m p l i c a t i o n of c o r r e l a t i o n a n a l y s i s of t h i s k i n d i s t h a t i t p r o v i d e s f o r e s t e r s w i t h i n i t i a l q u a n t i t a t i v e i n s i g h t i n t o the r e l a t i o n s h i p between i n d i v i d u a l t r e e and s t a n d v a r i a b l e s . T h i s i n s i g h t i s u s e f u l when one i s c h a l l e n g e d w i t h e s t i m a t i n g or p r e d i c t i n g p r e s e n t or f u t u r e i n d i v i d u a l t r e e or s t a n d growth. As p r e v i o u s l y mentioned the c o r r e l a t i o n m a t r i x r e v e a l s what independent v a r i a b l e i s most h i g h l y c o r r e l a t e d w i t h a s p e c i f i e d dependent v a r i a b l e . W h i l e o n l y t h e z e r o - o r d e r c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s a r e p r e s e n t e d i n t h i s a n a l y s i s h i g h e r o r d e r p a r t i a l c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s p l a y a s i g n i f i c a n t r o l e i n i n d i v i d u a l t r e e and s t a n d model b u i l d i n g p r o c e d u r e s . 8:4 D i s c u s s i o n of a n a l y s i s p a r t s one and two. The a n a l y s i s p r e s e n t e d thus f a r has q u a n t i f i e d the v a r i a t i o n w i t h i n i n d i v i d u a l t r e e and st a n d parameters f o r p l a n t a t i o n grown S i t k a s p r u c e , DATA GROUP I , and n a t u r a l l y 163 r e g e n e r a t e d s t a n d s of S i t k a s p r u c e , DATA GROUP I I , i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h C olumbia. The data s t r o n g l y suggest t h a t the s p e c i e s has g r e a t p o t e n t i a l f o r r a p i d e s t a b l i s h m e n t and volume p r o d u c t i o n on s u i t a b l e s i t e s . However, the r e s u l t s a l s o i n d i c a t e t h a t the s p e c i e s i s u n d e r u t i l i z e d i n comparison w i t h the i n t e n s i v e l y managed S i t k a spruce p l a n t a t i o n s of Great B r i t a i n and I r e l a n d . Can the p r o d u c t i v i t y of n a t u r a l S i t k a spruce s t a n d s be improved? Y i e l d s from n a t u r a l s t a n d s can be improved through c o n t r o l of s t o c k i n g and s t a n d d e n s i t y . Smith (1973) s t a t e d " s u b s t a n t i a l improvements i n y i e l d s h o u l d be o b t a i n e d as a r e s u l t of b e t t e r c o n t r o l of s t o c k i n g and s t a n d d e n s i t y . I f the g e n e r a l l e v e l of b a s a l a rea of sta n d s i n the 50-110 year age c l a s s e s can be r a i s e d t o t h a t of the best f i v e p e r c e n t of the stan d s s t u d i e d y i e l d s c o u l d be i n c r e a s e d from 70 t o 100 p e r c e n t . Y i e l d s can be i n c r e a s e d by i n c r e a s i n g s t o c k i n g . . . up t o the d e s i r a b l e average f o r the whole a r e a , or by c o n t r o l l i n g the d i s t r i b u t i o n of t r e e s t o reduce c l u m p i n g or by a p p r o p r i a t e c o m b i n a t i o n s of b o t h . " W h i l e Smith's r e s e a r c h was not s p e c i f i c a l l y c a r r i e d out on S i t k a spruce s t a n d s h i s c o n c l u s i o n may have wide a p p l i c a b i l i t y f o r n a t u r a l l y r e g e n e r a t e d s t a n d s i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia. I t i s a l s o p o s s i b l e t h a t some of the upper l i m i t s of s t a n d d e n s i t y may a l s o r e p r e s e n t p r a c t i c a l upper l i m i t s t o what might be e x p e c t e d from growth of p l a n t a t i o n s , over a wide range of c o n d i t i o n s . The c o r r e l a t i o n a n a l y s i s q u a n t i f i e s the r e l a t i o n s h i p 164 between i n d i v i d u a l t r e e and s t a n d parameters and p r o v i d e s some i n i t i a l i n s i g h t i n t o which v a r i a b l e s may used i n model b u i l d i n g . 165 CHAPTER NINE. F o r m u l a t i o n of a j u v e n i l e p l a n t a t i o n assessment model. 9:1 I n t r o d u c t i o n . The o b j e c t i v e of t h i s c h a p t e r i s t o determine the b e s t i n t e r p r e t i v e m a t h e m a t i c a l model f o r a s s e s s i n g the performance of young S i t k a spruce p l a n t a t i o n s i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia. With the advent of r e l a t i v e l y l a r g e a r e a s of S i t k a s pruce p l a n t a t i o n s i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia (see 5:6) i t i s i m p o r t a n t t o be a b l e to a s s e s s the performance of these young p l a n t a t i o n s . Very l i t t l e m e n s u r a t i o n a l r e s e a r c h has c o n c e n t r a t e d on j u v e n i l e t o t a l h e i g h t growth of S i t k a spruce p l a n t a t i o n s , and to date no q u a n t i t a t i v e c r i t e r i o n has been d e v e l o p e d t o a s s e s s the performance of young S i t k a spruce p l a n t a t i o n s i n the P r o v i n c e . The r e l a t i o n s h i p between t o t a l h e i g h t and t o t a l age w i l l be used t o d e v e l o p a s i m p l e P r o b a b i l i t y Assessment System (PAS) d e r i v e d from the a v a i l a b l e d a t a . T o t a l h e i g h t and t o t a l age w i l l be employed p r i m a r i l y because of the a c c u r a c y , speed and low c o s t w i t h which they can be measured. The g u i d i n g p r i n c i p l e used i n the model b u i l d i n g 166 approach used was the P r i n c i p l e of Parsimony, namely t h a t s i m p l e models a r e p o s t u l a t e d f i r s t , and o n l y i f they a r e shown t o be i n a p p r o p r i a t e a re more complex models f i t t e d . P i e n a a r and T u r n b u l l (1976) and Smith (1973) have endorsed t h i s a n a l y t i c a l approach by s t r e s s i n g the use of s i m p l e p r o c e d u r e s throughout and encouraged the use of " s i m p l e c u r v e forms". The g e n e r a l o u t l i n e of the p a r s i m o n i o u s model b u i l d i n g approach adopted i s p r e s e n t e d i n T a b l e 24, and p r o v i d e s the o u t l i n e t o be f o l l o w e d i n t h i s c h a p t e r . 167 T a b l e 24. G e n e r a l o u t l i n e of a parsimonous model b u i l d i n g a pproach. # F a i l t o r e j e c t Ho. R e j e c t Ho. 1 P l o t and d i s c u s s d a t a . 2 Suggest p o s s i b l e models. 3 F i t s i m p l e s t model. 4 Ho: one model i s adequate. Ho: u n i f o r m v a r i a n c e . Ho: p a r a l l e l i s m . Ho: c o i n c i d e n c e . Do not p o o l d a t a . Ho: e q u a l i n t e r c e p t s F i t two or more models. 5 P o o l d a t a and r e f i t the model. 6 Ho: r e g r e s s i o n assumptions have not been v i o l a t e d . Ho: e x a m i n a t i o n of r e s i d u a l s does not i n d i c a t e v i o l a t i o n of r e g r e s s i o n a s s u m p t i o n s . Take a p p r o p r i a t e c o r r e c t i v e a c t i o n , Go t o 3. Ho: the p o s t u l a t e d model i s a p p r o p r i a t e . F i t more complex model. Go t o 3. 7 S e l e c t the be s t s t a t i s t i c a l r e g r e s s i o n model. 8 Ho: model conforms t o known b i o l o g i c a l phenomena. F i t model which does conform. Go t o 3. 9 S t a t i s t i c a l i n f e r e n c e . 10 C r i t i c i s m of the model. The s t a t i s t i c a l methodology of r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s i s , the u n d e r l y i n g a s s u m p t i o n s , the consequences of v i o l a t i o n and the a p p r o p r i a t e c o r r e c t i v e a c t i o n have been o u t l i n e d i n d e t a i l by Draper and Smith (1966) and Mac S i u r t a i n (1981). 168 9:2 P l o t and d i s c u s s DATA GROUP I . DATA GROUP I c o n s i s t s of 166 o b s e r v a t i o n s of t h r e e v a r i a b l e s , t o t a l age, t o t a l h e i g h t , and crown w i d t h . These d a t a r e p r e s e n t the p l a n t a t i o n grown S i t k a spruce i n the Vancouver F o r e s t R e g i o n . The d e s c r i p t i v e s t a t i s t i c s f o r t h i s d a t a group have p r e v i o u s l y been p r e s e n t e d i n T a b l e s 13 and 14, and the z e r o - o r d e r sample c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s i n T a b l e 22. T o t a l h e i g h t w i l l be re g a r d e d as the "dependent" v a r i a b l e and t o t a l age the "independent" v a r i a b l e i n the remainder of the a n a l y s i s , because of the a c c u r a c y , speed and low c o s t w i t h which i t can be de t e r m i n e d from p l a n t i n g r e c o r d s . The p l o t of t o t a l h e i g h t v e r s u s t o t a l age f o r DATA GROUP I i s p r e s e n t e d i n F i g u r e 13. F i g u r e 13. T o t a l h e i g h t v e r s u s t o t a l age f o r DATA GROUP I ~ i i i — i 1 — i i 1 1 1 — i 1 i i i i 0 0 3.0 2 0 3 .0 4.0 5 .0 6 .0 7 . 0 8 . 0 9 .0 10 . 0 ! ! . 0 ) 2 . 0 13 .0 iA.Q J 5 . 0 16.0 RGE (TERRS) Immediately e v i d e n t i s t h a t no d a t a were c o l l e c t e d 169 from 9, 11, 12, 13 and 15 year o l d p l a n t a t i o n s . D e s p i t e these "gaps" i n the d a t a a n a l y s i s w i l l p r o c e e d , a l t h o u g h such "gaps" s h o u l d not be t o l e r a t e d i n f u r t h e r s t u d i e s of t h i s n a t u r e . 9:3 Suggest p o s s i b l e models. By s i m p l y " e y e b a l l i n g " the o b s e r v a t i o n s i n F i g u r e 13 a d e f i n i t e i n c r e a s i n g upward t r e n d of the mean t o t a l h e i g h t c o r r e s p o n d i n g t o s p e c i f i c t o t a l age v a l u e s i s e v i d e n t . The known b i o l o g i c a l phenomenon of j u v e n i l e t o t a l h e i g h t growth as a f u n c t i o n of t o t a l age i s n o n l i n e a r . Thus i t i s i m m e d i a t e l y apparent t h a t a s i m p l e l i n e a r model w i l l be inadequate t o d e s c r i b e the r e l a t i o n s h i p i n the p o p u l a t i o n . However, the s i m p l e l i n e a r model p r o v i d e s a l o g i c a l s t a r t i n g p o i n t i n the p a r s i m o n i o u s model b u i l d i n g approach used as i t p r o v i d e s a "base model" a g a i n s t which o t h e r models may be compared. Giv e n t h a t , r e p l i c a t e o b s e r v a t i o n s of Y f o r k s e t s of X are a v a i l a b l e , as i s the case i n t h e s e d a t a , i t i s p o s s i b l e t o f i t a p o l y n o m i a l model of the o r d e r k-1 t o the d a t a . Such a k-1 p o l y n o m i a l w i l l pass t h r o u g h the mean of Y f o r each of the k s e t s of X, however s i n c e the means of Y f o r each of the k s e t s of X do not f o l l o w a smooth c o n t i n u o u s upward t r e n d the p o s s i b i l i t y of o v e r f i t t i n g e x i s t s e s p e c i a l l y w i t h h i g h e r o r d e r p o l y n o m i a l s . 1 70 Any model which a t t e m p t s t o d e s c r i b e the b i o l o g i c a l phenomenon of t o t a l h e i g h t growth as a f u n c t i o n of t o t a l age s h o u l d t h e o r e t i c a l l y pass t h r o u g h the " o r i g i n " . T h i s , c o u p l e d w i t h the f a c t t h a t the r e l a t i o n s h i p i n q u e s t i o n i s n o n l i n e a r , s t r o n g l y s u g g e s t s t h a t a f u l l l o g a r i t h m i c model may be an a p p r o p r i a t e model t o f i t . G i v e n t h a t the P r i n c i p l e of Parsimony i s the o v e r a l l g u i d i n g model b u i l d i n g p r i n c i p l e adapted we s h a l l " t e n t a t i v e l y e n t e r t a i n " the s i m p l e s t model, namely, the s i m p l e l i n e a r model. A f t e r the s i m p l e l i n e a r model i s shown q u a n t i t a t i v e l y t o be i n a p p r o p r i a t e , s u c c e s s i v e h i g h e r o r d e r p o l y n o m i a l s w i l l be t e n t a t i v e l y e n t e r t a i n e d as i t appears such models may be more a p p r o p r i a t e than the s i m p l e l i n e a r model.. Then, f i n a l l y , a f u l l l o g a r i t h m i c model w i l l be f i t t e d and compared w i t h the " b e s t " ^ p o l y n o m i a l model. The f o l l o w i n g w i l l attempt t o q u a n t i f y these v i s u a l i m p r e s s i o n s . 9:4:1 Simple l i n e a r model. The p o s t u l a t e d s i m p l e l i n e a r model i s of the form: Y i = BO + B1 X i + E i (9.1) and the o r d i n a r y l e a s t squares e s t i m a t e d model i s : 171 Y i = -1.1396 + 0.52096 X i (9.2) The b a s i c s t a t i s t i c s from the a n a l y s i s of v a r i a n c e t a b l e a r e : F bO = 46.3700 P 0.0000 ** F b i = 582.1400 P 0.0000 ** R 2 = 0.7802 (9.3) MSE = 0.8176 m O v e r a l l F = 582.1400 P 0.0000 ** Both bO and b1 a r e h i g h l y s i g n i f i c a n t c o e f f i c i e n t s . The m a j o r i t y of the v a r i a t i o n i n t o t a l h e i g h t , 78 p e r c e n t i n f a c t , can be accounted f o r by t o t a l age a l o n e . However, a h i g h l y s i g n i f i c a n t r e g r e s s i o n does not imply t h a t the model i s a p p r o p r i a t e , i n f a c t i t i s known t h a t the r e l a t i o n s h i p i s n o n l i n e a r . I t i s a p p r o p r i a t e t o t e s t the h y p o t h e s i s : Ho: e x a m i n a t i o n of r e s i d u a l s does not i n d i c a t e v i o l a t i o n of r e g r e s s i o n a s sumptions. The p l o t s of s t a n d a r d i z e d r e s i d u a l s v e r s u s t o t a l age, the square of t o t a l age and the cube of t o t a l age, f o r DATA GROUP I a r e p r e s e n t e d i n F i g u r e s 14, 15 and 16 r e s p e c t i v e l y . 172 F i g u r e 14. S t a n d a r i z e d r e s i d u a l s of the si m p l e l i n e a r model v e r s u s t o t a l age f o r DATA GROUP I . to _j cr ZD c n U J c r Z : to l 1 1 r-1 8 9 10 TOTAL AGE i i 1 1 1 1 1 !) J2 13 14 35 16 37 F i g u r e 14 resembles a " h o r i z o n t a l band" which i n d i c a t e d t h a t the assumptions of r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s i s do not appear t o have been v i o l a t e d . F i g u r e 15. S t a n d a r i z e d r e s i d u a l s of the s i m p l e l i n e a r model v e r s u s the square of t o t a l age f o r DATA GROUP I . co _j cc ZD CD >—!<r' CO L U Q on ' CC CE I— CO .8 x X 5 0 40 80 120 ]60 200 240 280 TOTRL R6E SQUARED 173 F i g u r e 15 i n d i c a t e s t h a t the s i m p l e l i n e a r model o v e r e s t i m a t e s mean t o t a l h e i g h t w i t h i n the range 9 t o 14 y e a r s . T h i s s u g g e s t s t h a t the l i n e a r model i s i n a p p r o p r i a t e and h i g h e r o r d e r p o l y n o m i a l s s h o u l d be f i t t e d . F i g u r e 16. S t a n d a r i z e d r e s i d u a l s of the s i m p l e l i n e a r model v e r s u s the cube of t o t a l age f o r DATA GROUP I . CO I cr ZD Q _ .— co UJ CD CD CN C£ 1 CE -CD x CE o BO ] 60 2 4 0 3 2 0 480 ' TOTRL RGE CUBED (X5-0 1 ) CO F i g u r e 16 i n d i c a t e s t h a t the a d d i t i o n of the cube of t o t a l age t o the model may improve the p r e d i c t i o n of t o t a l h e i g h t . From the v i s u a l e x a m i n a t i o n of r e s i d u a l s above, one may r e j e c t the h y p o t h e s i s and c o n c l u d e t h a t the s i m p l e l i n e a r model i s i n a p p r o p r i a t e . I t i s p o s s i b l e t o q u a n t i f y how i n a p p r o p r i a t e the s i m p l e l i n e a r model i s by t e s t i n g the h y p o t h e s i s : Ho: the p o s t u l a t e d s i m p l e l i n e a r model i s a p p r o p r i a t e . The computed F s t a t i s t i c i n t h i s t e s t f o r l a c k of f i t i s : 174 10.3919 F 20. 1 183 (9.4) 0.51654 Compare computed F w i t h t a b u l a t e d F5,159,0.95(1 ) = 2.27. T h e r e f o r e , r e j e c t Ho as computed F i s much g r e a t e r than the t a b u l a t e d F, and c o n c l u d e , w i t h a t l e a s t 95 p e r c e n t c o n f i d e n c e , t h a t the s i m p l e l i n e a r model i s i n a p p r o p r i a t e . T h i s c o n f i r m s the statement c o n c e r n i n g the n o n l i n e a r i t y of the r e l a t i o n s h i p made i n S e c t i o n 9:3. A q u a d r a t i c model w i l l now be f i t t e d and a n a l y s e d . 9:4:2 Q u a d r a t i c model. The p o s t u l a t e d q u a d r a t i c model i s of the form: Y i = BO + B1 X i + B2 X i 2 + E i (9.5) The o r d i n a r y l e a s t squares e s t i m a t e d model i s : Y i = -0.71599 + 0.41482 X i + 0.00538 X i 2 (9.6) The b a s i c s t a t i s t i c s from the a n a l y s i s of v a r i a n c e t a b l e a r e : 175 F bO = 1 . 6 0 3 2 P 0.2072 NS F b i = 9.1633 P 0.0029 ** F b2 = 0.6153 P 0.4340 NS R 2 = 0.7810 (9.7) MSE = 0.8195 m O v e r a l l F = 292.69 P 0.0000 ** The p a r t i a l F s t a t i s t i c s i n d i c a t e t h a t o n l y b1 i s s i g n i f i c a n t . There has been o n l y a m i n i s c u l e i n c r e a s e i n 'R2 and a c o r r e s p o n d i n g d e c r e a s e i n MSE, compared t o the s i m p l e l i n e a r model. The o v e r a l l F s t a t i s t i c i n d i c a t e s a h i g h l y s i g n i f i c a n t o v e r a l l r e g r e s s i o n but t h i s does not imply t h a t the model i s a p p r o p r i a t e . I t i s p o s s i b l e t o t e s t the h y p o t h e s i s : Ho: the a d d i t i o n of X 2 t o a model i n c l u d i n g X does not s i g n i f i c a n t l y improve the p r e d i c t i o n of Y. The a p p r o p r i a t e computed F s t a t i s t i c i n t h i s p a r t i a l F t e s t i s : 476.47 - 475.97 F = = 0.6101 (9.8) 0.81954 Compare computed F w i t h t a b u l a t e d F1,162,0.95(1) = 3.90. T h e r e f o r e , f a i l t o r e j e c t Ho as t h e computed F i s much l e s s than the t a b u l a t e d F, and c o n c l u d e t h a t the q u a d r a t i c model i s not s i g n i f i c a n t l y b e t t e r than the l i n e a r model. In t h i s case i t i s not a p p r o p r i a t e t o t e s t the h y p o t h e s i s : 1 76 Ho: e x a m i n a t i o n of r e s i d u a l s does not i n d i c a t e v i o l a t i o n of r e g r e s s i o n a s s u m p t i o n s . I t i s p o s s i b l e t o q u a n t i f y how i n a p p r o p r i a t e the q u a d r a t i c model i s by t e s t i n g the h y p o t h e s i s : Ho: the p o s t u l a t e d q u a d r a t i c model i s a p p r o p r i a t e . The computed F s t a t i s t i c i n t h i s t e s t f o r l a c k of f i t i s : 12.8639 F = = 24.9039 (9.9) 0.51654 Compare computed F w i t h t a b u l a t e d F4,159,0.95(1) = 2.43. T h e r e f o r e r e j e c t Ho as the computed F i s much g r e a t e r than the t a b u l a t e d F, and c o n c l u d e , w i t h a t l e a s t 95 p e r c e n t c o n f i d e n c e , t h a t the q u a d r a t i c model i s i n a p p r o p r i a t e . In f a c t w h i l e both the l i n e a r and q u a d r a t i c models are i n a p p r o p r i a t e the l i n e a r model i s r e l a t i v e l y more a p p r o p r i a t e than the q u a d r a t i c model, as i n d i c a t e d by i t s lower computed F s t a t i s t i c . A c u b i c model w i l l now be f i t t e d and a n a l y s e d . 9:4:3 Cubic model. The p o s t u l a t e d c u b i c model i s of the form: 177 Y i = BO + B1 X i + B2 X i 2 + B3 X i 3 + E i (9.10) The o r d i n a r y l e a s t squares e s t i m a t e d model i s : Y i = -17.36 + 6.5777 X i - 0.68193 X i 2 + 0.02308 X i 3 (9.11) The b a s i c s t a t i s t i c s from the a n a l y s i s of v a r i a n c e t a b l e a r e : F bO = 77.5368 P 0.0000 ** F b i = 83.8983 P 0.0000 ** F b2 = 73.9772 P 0.0000 ** F b3 = 75.5370 P 0.0000 ** R 2 = 0.8507 (9.12) MSE = 0.5624 m O v e r a l l F = 307.59 P 0.0000 ** The p a r t i a l F s t a t i s t i c s i n d i c a t e t h a t a l l the c o e f f i c i e n t s a re h i g h l y s i g n i f i c a n t . There has been a s u b s t a n t i a l i n c r e a s e i n R 2, seven p e r c e n t i n f a c t , and a c o r r e s p o n d i n g s u b s t a n t i a l d e c r e a s e i n MSE, compared t o the l i n e a r and q u a d r a t i c models. The o v e r a l l F s t a t i s t i c i n d i c a t e s a h i g h l y s i g n i f i c a n t o v e r a l l r e g r e s s i o n but t h i s a g a i n does not imply t h a t the model i s a p p r o p r i a t e . I t i s a p p r o p r i a t e t o t e s t the h y p o t h e s i s : Ho: the a d d i t i o n of X 3 t o a model i n c l u d i n g X and X 2 does not s i g n i f i c a n t l y improve the p r e d i c t i o n of Y. The a p p r o p r i a t e computed F s t a t i s t i c i n t h i s p a r t i a l F t e s t i s : 178 F = 518.95 - 476.47 0.56238 = 75.5361 (9.13) Compare computed F w i t h t a b u l a t e d F1,161,0.95(1) = 3.90. T h e r e f o r e , r e j e c t Ho as the computed F i s much g r e a t e r than the t a b u l a t e d F, and c o n c l u d e t h a t the c u b i c model i s s i g n i f i c a n t l y b e t t e r than b o t h the l i n e a r and q u a d r a t i c models. I t i s a p p r o p r i a t e t o t e s t the h y p o t h e s i s : Ho: e x a m i n a t i o n of r e s i d u a l s does not i n d i c a t e v i o l a t i o n of r e g r e s s i o n a s s u m p t i o n s . The p l o t of the s t a n d a r d i z e d r e s i d u a l s v e r s u s t o t a l age from the c u b i c model f o r DATA GROUP I i s p r e s e n t e d i n F i g u r e 17. F i g u r e 17. S t a n d a r d i z e d r e s i d u a l s of the c u b i c model v e r s u s t o t a l age f o r DATA GROUP I . r5 Q , T " IT: UJ • UJ_ -* cr '• cr Q c T. : cr o LO T T 7 B 9 J3 13 TOTAL AGE J 2 —r-!3 —T— !6 .17 T h i s p l o t s t r o n g l y s u g g e s t s t h a t Ho may not be r e j e c t e d , as no v i o l a t i o n of the r e g r e s s i o n a s sumptions i s 179 e v i d e n t . T h e r e f o r e , c o n c l u d e t h a t the c u b i c model may p r o v i d e a s a t i s f a c t o r y f i t . I t i s p o s s i b l e t o q u a n t i f y how w e l l the c u b i c model f i t s the d a t a by t e s t i n g the h y p o t h e s i s : Ho: the p o s t u l a t e d c u b i c model i s a p p r o p r i a t e . The computed F s t a t i s t i c i n t h i s t e s t f o r l a c k of f i t i s : 2.9917 F = = 5.7919 (9.14) 0.51654 Compare computed F w i t h t a b u l a t e d F3,159,0.95(1) = 2.66. T h e r e f o r e , r e j e c t Ho as t h e computed F i s much g r e a t e r than the t a b u l a t e d F, and c o n c l u d e , w i t h a t l e a s t 95 p e r c e n t c o n f i d e n c e , t h a t the c u b i c model i s i n a p p r o p r i a t e as i t has a h i g h l y s i g n i f i c a n t l a c k of f i t . The a n a l y s i s of v a r i a n c e t a b l e t e s t i n g f o r l a c k of f i t i s p r e s e n t e d i n T a b l e 25. 180 Table 25. A n a l y s i s of v a r i a n c e t a b l e , t e s t i n g f o r l a c k of f i t , of the c u b i c model f o r DATA GROUP I . Source Sum of squares D F Mean square F s t a t i s t i c R e g r e s s i o n R e s i d u a l 518.721 91.105 3 1 62 172.907 0.562 307.457 Lack of f i t Pure e r r o r 8.975 82.130 3 159 2.992 0.517 5.792 T o t a l 610.059 165 Compare computed F s t a t i s t i c w i t h t a b u l a t e d F3,159,0.05(1). W h i l e both the l i n e a r and c u b i c models are i n a p p r o p r i a t e the c u b i c model i s r e l a t i v e l y more a p p r o p r i a t e than the l i n e a r model, as e v i d e n c e d by the s t a t i s t i c s . A f u l l l o g a r i t h m i c model w i l l now be f i t t e d and a n a l y s e d . 9:4:4 L o g a r i t h m i c model. The p o s t u l a t e d l o g a r i t h m i c model i s of the form: B1 X i Y i = B0 X i B2 E i (9.15) T h i s model may be t r a n s f o r m e d t o l o g a r i t h m s base 10 as f o l l o w s : 181 l o g Y i = BO + B1 l o g X i + B2 X i + E i (9.16) where BO = l o g BO B2 = l o g B2 The o r d i n a r y l e a s t squares e s t i m a t e d model i s : l o g Y i = -1.4814 + 2.7212 l o g X i - 0.0613 X i (9.17) The b a s i c s t a t i s t i c s from the a n a l y s i s of v a r i a n c e t a b l e f o r the f u l l l o g a r i t h m i c model a r e : F bO = 43.3912 P 0.0000 ** F b i = 32.8799 P 0.0000 ** F b2 = 6.8017 P 0.0100 ** R 2 = 0.6858 (9.18) MSE = 0.0278 l o g a r i t h m i c s c a l e O v e r a l l F = 177.8800 P 0.0000 ** In o r d e r t o make comparisons between a f u l l l o g a r i t h m i c model and a c u b i c model i t i s n e c e s s a r y t o t r a n s f o r m the f u l l l o g a r i t h m i c model back t o the o r i g i n a l form. T h i s i s a c c o m p l i s h e d by t a k i n g the a n t i l o g of bO and b2 and r e w r i t i n g the model i n the o r i g i n a l form. The R 2 s t a t i s t i c from t h i s t r a n s f o r m e d f u l l l o g a r i t h m i c model i s termed, by c o n v e n t i o n , I 2 (Kozak, 1978). The o r d i n a r y l e a s t squares e s t i m a t e d t r a n s f o r m e d f u l l l o g a r i t h m i c model i s : 182 2.7212 X i Y i = 0.033 X i (0.8683) (9.19) The b a s i c s t a t i s t i c s from the a n a l y s i s of v a r i a n c e t a b l e f o r the t r a n s f o r m e d f u l l l o g a r i t h m i c model a r e : I 2 = 0.7317 (9.20) MSE = 0.9437 m The o v e r a l l F and p a r t i a l F s t a t i s t i c s a r e presumed t o remain s i g n i f i c a n t i n the t r a n s f o r m e d f u l l l o g a r i t h m i c model, even though a l l s t a t i s t i c s change w i t h t r a n s f o r m a t i o n back to the o r i g i n a l u n i t s . However, t h e r e has been a s u b s t a n t i a l d e c r e a s e i n 1 2 , 12 p e r c e n t , and a c o r r e s p o n d i n g s u b s t a n t i a l i n c r e a s e i n MSE, i n comparison t o the c u b i c model. The p e r c e n t of the t o t a l v a r i a t i o n "accounted f o r " by t h i s t r a n s f o r m e d f u l l l o g a r i t h m i c model i s the lowe s t of the f o u r models f i t t e d . The o v e r a l l F s t a t i s t i c i n d i c a t e s a h i g h l y s i g n i f i c a n t o v e r a l l r e g r e s s i o n but t h i s a g a i n does not imply t h a t the model i s a p p r o p r i a t e . I t i s a p p r o p r i a t e t o t e s t the h y p o t h e s i s : Ho: e x a m i n a t i o n of r e s i d u a l s does not i n d i c a t e v i o l a t i o n of r e g r e s s i o n a s s u m p t i o n s . The p l o t of the s t a n d a r d i z e d r e s i d u a l s v e r s u s t o t a l age from the t r a n s f o r m e d f u l l l o g a r i t h m i c model f o r DATA GROUP I i s p r e s e n t e d i n F i g u r e 18. 183 F i g u r e 18. S t a n d a r d i z e d r e s i d u a l s of the t r a n s f o r m e d f u l l l o g a r i t h m i c model v e r s u s t o t a l age f o r DATA GROUP I . m _ j ex Q _ to UJ Cdrsj" D Q ( M . CC 1 CC CX D to T T T 7 B 3 !D TOTRL AGE —r 33 32 J3 34 3S 16 37 F i g u r e 18 s t r o n g l y s u g g e s t s t h a t Ho may not be r e j e c t e d , as no v i o l a t i o n of the r e g r e s s i o n assumptions i s e v i d e n t . The model, however, tends t o u n d e r e s t i m a t e the mean t o t a l h e i g h t w i t h i n the range 9 t o 14 y e a r s , as few data were c o l l e c t e d w i t h i n t h i s p a r t of the range. T h e r e f o r e , one may co n c l u d e t h a t the t r a n s f o r m e d f u l l l o g a r i t h m i c model does p r o v i d e a r e a s o n a b l e f i t . I t i s p o s s i b l e t o q u a n t i f y how w e l l the t r a n s f o r m e d f u l l l o g a r i t h m i c model f i t s the d a t a by t e s t i n g the h y p o t h e s i s : Ho: the p o s t u l a t e d t r a n s f o r m e d f u l l l o g a r i t h m i c model i s a p p r o p r i a t e . The computed F s t a t i s t i c i n t h i s t e s t f o r l a c k of f i t i s : 17.9240 F = = 34.7000 0.51654 (9.21 ) Compare computed F w i t h t a b u l a t e d F4,159,0.95(1) 2.43. 1 84 T h e r e f o r e , r e j e c t Ho as computed F i s much g r e a t e r than the t a b u l a t e d F, and c o n c l u d e , w i t h a t l e a s t 95 p e r c e n t c o n f i d e n c e , t h a t the t r a n s f o r m e d f u l l l o g a r i t h m i c model i s i n a p p r o p r i a t e as i t has a h i g h l y s i g n i f i c a n t l a c k of f i t . The a n a l y s i s of v a r i a n c e t a b l e t e s t i n g f o r l a c k of f i t i s p r e s e n t e d i n Ta b l e 26. Tab l e 26. A n a l y s i s of v a r i a n c e t a b l e , t e s t i n g f o r l a c k of f i t , of the t r a n s f o r m e d f u l l l o g a r i t h m i c model f o r DATA GROUP I . Source Sum of squares D F Mean square F s t a t i s t i c R e g r e s s i o n R e s i d u a l 446.556 1 53.826 2 1 63 223.278 0.944 236.594 Lack of f i t Pure e r r o r 71.696 82.130 4 159 17.924 0.517 34.700 T o t a l 610.059 1 65 Compare computed F s t a t i s t i c w i t h t a b u l a t e d F4,159,0.05(1). Whil e both the c u b i c and t r a n s f o r m e d f u l l l o g a r i t h m i c models are i n a p p r o p r i a t e the c u b i c model i s r e l a t i v e l y more a p p r o p r i a t e as i t has a much lower computed F s t a t i s t i c i n the t e s t f o r l a c k of f i t . An attempt w i l l now be made t o s e l e c t the " b e s t " model. 185 9:5 The be s t s t a t i s t i c a l r e g r e s s i o n model. The q u e s t i o n a r i s e s , which i s the " b e s t " model and why? A d e f i n i t e d e s t i n c t i o n may be drawn between the best s t a t i s t i c a l r e g r e s s i o n model and the best i n t e r p r e t i v e  m a t h e m a t i c a l model (Mac S i u r t a i n , 1981). In t h i s i n s t a n c e , the c h o i c e has t o be made between the c u b i c and t r a n s f o r m e d f u l l l o g a r i t h m i c models. In t h i s S e c t i o n emphasis w i l l be p l a c e d on s e l e c t i n g the best s t a t i s t i c a l r e g r e s s i o n model and the s e l e c t i o n of the best i n t e r p r e t i v e m a t h e m a t i c a l model w i l l be d e f e r r e d u n t i l S e c t i o n 9:6. A comparison of the c u b i c and t r a n s f o r m e d f u l l l o g a r i t h m i c models of t o t a l h e i g h t on t o t a l age f o r DATA GROUP I i s p r e s e n t e d i n Table 27. 186 Ta b l e 27. Comparative s t a t i s t i c s of the c u b i c and t r a n s f o r m e d f u l l l o g a r i t h m i c models f o r t o t a l h e i g h t on t o t a l age f o r DATA GROUP I . C r i t e r i a of s e l e c t i o n . Cubic model Transformed f u l l l o g a r i t h m i c model. S i g n i f i c a n c e of coef f i c i e n t s . A l l h i g h l y s i g n i f i c a n t . A l l h i g h l y s i g n i f i c a n t . O v e r a l l model s i g n i f i c a n c e . F = 307.59 F = 236.59 R e s i d u a l mean square (MSE). MSE = 0.562m MSE = 0.944m Lack of f i t t e s t F = 5.792 F = 34.700 P l o t of the s t a n d a r d i z e d r e s i d u a l s . S a t i s f a c t o r y . No v i o l a t i o n of ass u m p t i o n s . Underest imates t o t a l h e i g h t above age 10. Con f o r m a t i o n t o known b i o l o g i c a l phenomenon. Not f o r ages 9, 10 and 11. Yes, over e n t i r e range of d a t a . R 2 and I 2 . R 2 = 0.85066 I 2 = 0.73168 A d j u s t e d R 2, 1 2 R 2 = 0.84790 I 2 = 0.74472 A v a i l a b i l i t y , r e l i a b i l i t y and c o s t of the independent va r i a b l e . T o t a l age i s q u i c k l y and inexpens i v e l y o b t a i n e d from p l a n t i n g r e c o r d s . T o t a l age i s q u i c k l y and i n e x p e n s i v e l y o b t a i n e d from p l a n t i n g r e c o r d s . The b e s t s t a t i s t i c a l r e g r e s s i o n model i s the c u b i c model because i t has: 1. The l o w e s t MSE. 2. A l l h i g h l y s i g n i f i c a n t c o e f f i c i e n t s . 3. The h i g h e s t o v e r a l l F s t a t i s t i c . 4. The l o w e s t F s t a t i s t i c i n the t e s t f o r l a c k of f i t . 5. The h i g h e s t R 2. 6. The h i g h e s t a d j u s t e d R 2. 187 The c r u c i a l q u e s t i o n a r i s e s , g i v e n , the be s t s t a t i s t i c a l r e g r e s s i o n model, does i t conform t o the known b i o l o g i c a l phenomenon under c o n s i d e r a t i o n ? The a p p r o p r i a t e h y p o t h e s i s i s : Ho: the c u b i c model does conform t o the known b i o l o g i c a l phenomenon. T h i s s u b j e c t i v e h y p o t h e s i s may be t e s t e d by p l o t t i n g the f i t t e d model a g a i n s t the independent v a r i a b l e , t o t a l age, as p r e s e n t e d i n F i g u r e 19. F i g u r e 19. F i t t e d c u b i c model of t o t a l h e i g h t v e r s u s t o t a l age f o r DATA GROUP I , i l l u s t r a t i n g v e r y poor c o n f o r m a t i o n t o the b i o l o g i c a l phenomenon of j u v e n i l e h e i g h t growth of S i t k a s p r u c e . J From F i g u r e 19 i t i s i m m e d i a t e l y e v i d e n t t h a t the 188 c u b i c model does not conform t o the known b i o l o g i c a l phenomenon, as the mean t o t a l h e i g h t i s seen t o d e c l i n e f o r t o t a l ages of 9, 10 and 11. Another p o i n t i n f a v o u r of r e j e c t i o n of t h i s h y p o t h e s i s i s t h a t the model does not pass through the " o r i g i n " . T h i s p r o v i d e s an e x c e l l e n t example of o v e r f i t t i n g a model t o d a t a . The h y p o t h e s i s must t h e r e f o r e , be r e j e c t e d . W h i l e the c u b i c model i s u n q u e s t i o n a b l y the best s t a t i s t i c a l r e g r e s s i o n model i t i s not the be s t i n t e r p r e t i v e m a t h e m a t i c a l model because i t o v e r f i t s the d a t a and f a i l s t o conform t o the known b i o l o g i c a l phenomenon. 9:6 The be s t i n t e r p r e t i v e m a t h e m a t i c a l model. By d e f a u l t , s i n c e the comparison i s between two p o s s i b l e models, the t r a n s f o r m e d f u l l l o g a r i t h m i c model must be examined t o d e c i d e i f i t i s a r e a s o n a b l e c a n d i d a t e f o r the best i n t e r p r e t i v e m a t h e m a t i c a l model. The emphasis i n t h i s e x a m i n a t i o n w i l l be on whether or not the model conforms t o the known b i o l o g i c a l phenomenon and whether " i n t e r p r e t a t i o n " may be drawn from model. In s h o r t , does the t r a n s f o r m e d f u l l l o g a r i t h m i c model have d e s i r a b l e b i o l o g i c a l and s t a t i s t i c a l p r o p e r t i e s ? From Table 27 i t i s e v i d e n t t h a t the t r a n s f o r m e d f u l l 189 l o g a r i t h m i c model does p o s s e s s the d e s i r a b l e s t a t i s t i c a l p r o p e r t i e s , but t o a l e s s e r e x t e n t than the c u b i c model. The c r u c i a l q u e s t i o n a r i s e s , does the t r a n s f o r m e d f u l l l o g a r i t h m i c model conform t o the known b i o l o g i c a l phenomenon under c o n s i d e r a t i o n ? The a p p r o p r i a t e h y p o t h e s i s i s : Ho: the t r a n s f o r m e d f u l l l o g a r i t h m i c model does conform t o the known b i o l o g i c a l phenomenon. T h i s s u b j e c t i v e h y p o t h e s i s may be t e s t e d by p l o t t i n g the model a g a i n s t the independent v a r i a b l e , t o t a l age, as p r e s e n t e d i n F i g u r e 20. F i g u r e 20. F i t t e d f u l l l o g a r i t h m i c model of t o t a l h e i g h t on t o t a l age f o r DATA GROUP I , i l l u s t r a t i n g r e a s o n a b l e c o n f o r m a t i o n t o the b i o l o g i c a l phenomenon of j u v e n i l e h e i g h t growth. a -a a -CD —> —ts t_o Xf - " LS — . O U J „ : -a [ I 1 L ' m 0 I " • 1 a I " a 8 o 0 1 1 1 i i 1 1 r~ 1 r 3 •» * o i n T O T A L AGE 1 1 1 1 1 • < 1 1 ID 13 3Z 13 13 13 ID (YEARS) From F i g u r e 20 i t i s i m m e d i a t e l y e v i d e n t t h a t the 190 t r a n s f o r m e d f u l l l o g a r i t h m i c model does conform t o the known b i o l o g i c a l phenomenon, as the mean t o t a l h e i g h t i s seen t o f o l l o w a smooth c o n t i n u o u s i n c r e a s i n g upward t r e n d over the e n t i r e range of the d a t a . W h i l e the t r a n s f o r m e d f u l l l o g a r i t h m i c model i s not as s t a t i s t i c a l l y d e s i r a b l e as the c u b i c model i t i s w i t h o u t doubt the best i n t e r p r e t i v e m a t h e m a t i c a l model t h a t can be d e r i v e d from the a v a i l a b l e d a t a , because i t does conform t o both the b i o l o g i c a l and s t a t i s t i c a l c r i t e r i a b e t t e r than any o t h e r model f i t t e d . One must, t h e r e f o r e , f a i l t o r e j e c t the h y p o t h e s i s . 9:7 S t a t i s t i c a l i n f e r e n c e of the model. The t r a n s f o r m e d f u l l l o g a r i t h m i c model does not c l a i m t o be the t r u e unknown p o p u l a t i o n model but i t does c l a i m t o be the best r e a s o n a b l e a p p r o x i m a t i o n t o the t r u e unknown model t h a t can be d e r i v e d from the a v a i l a b l e d a t a . S t a t i s t i c a l i n f e r e n c e w i l l t h e r e f o r e be made u s i n g the best r e a s o n a b l e a p p r o x i m a t i o n of the t r u e unknown model. C o n f i d e n c e i n t e r v a l s about the f i t t e d t r a n s f o r m e d f u l l l o g a r i t h m i c model were computed and p l o t t e d about the f i t t e d t r a n s f o r m e d f u l l l o g a r i t h m i c model as shown i n F i g u r e 21. 191 F i g u r e 21. P l o t t e d c o n f i d e n c e i n t e r v a l s about the f i t t e d t r a n s f o r m e d f u l l l o g a r i t h m i c model of t o t a l h e i g h t on t o t a l age f o r DATA GROUP I . T h i s model and i t s a s s o c i a t e d c o n f i d e n c e l i m i t s d e s c r i b e the j u v e n i l e t o t a l h e i g h t of young p l a n t e d S i t k a spruce i n the Vancouver F o r e s t R e g i o n , and a t t e m p t s t o q u a n t i f y the v a r i a t i o n t h a t can be e x p e c t e d w i t h i n t h e range of t h e d a t a . T h i s q u a n t i f i c a t i o n of the v a r i a t i o n may be a u s e f u l c r i t e r i o n i n a s s e s s i n g the performance of average t o t a l h e i g h t growth i n young S i t k a s p r u c e p l a n t a t i o n s (see 9:9). 192 9:8 C r i t i c i s m of the model. The main d i s a d v a n t a g e s of t h i s model a r e : 1. Only 73 p e r c e n t of the t o t a l v a r i a t i o n was accounted f o r . 2. No d a t a were c o l l e c t e d f o r ages 9, 11, 12, 13 and 15, t h e r e f o r e , t h i s model cannot t r u l y r e p r e s e n t these age c l a s s e s . 3. T h i s model has the h i g h e s t computed F s t a t i s t i c i n the t e s t f o r l a c k of f i t , i n d i c a t i n g t h a t i t i s not a "snug" f i t . The main advantages of t h i s model a r e : 1. I t does conform t o the known b i o l o g i c a l phenomenon of j u v e n i l e t o t a l h e i g h t growth of S i t k a s p r u c e . 2. I t i s based on a independent v a r i a b l e which can be q u i c k l y , c h e a p l y and p r e c i s e l y d e t e r m i n e d . 3. I t p r o v i d e s a "base model" of the j u v e n i l e t o t a l h e i g h t growth of p l a n t e d S i t k a s p ruce i n the Vancouver F o r e s t R e g i o n , a g a i n s t which o t h e r 193 models may be compared. 4. I t may have a p p l i c a t i o n i n a s s e s s i n g the performance of mean j u v e n i l e t o t a l h e i g h t of S i t k a spruce p l a n t a t i o n s . 5. I t i s a s i m p l e model which can be q u i c k l y and i n e x p e n s i v e l y improved when more d a t a are a v a i l a b l e . 9:9 Management i m p l i c a t i o n s of t h i s model. T h i s model and i t s a s s o c i a t e d 95 p e r c e n t c o n f i d e n c e i n t e r v a l s d e s c r i b e s the mean j u v e n i l e t o t a l h e i g h t growth of young p l a n t e d S i t k a s p ruce i n the Vancouver F o r e s t Region, and at t e m p t s t o q u a n t i f y the v a r i a t i o n t h a t can be e x p e c t e d w i t h i n the range of the d a t a . T h i s p r o v i d e s a s i m p l e o b j e c t i v e method, of a s s i g n i n g p r o b a b i l i t y t o assessment of j u v e n i l e p l a n t a t i o n performance f o r young S i t k a spruce i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h C olumbia, t h u s the term P r o b a b i l i t y Assessment System (PAS). The p r e d i c t e d average t o t a l h e i g h t and 95 p e r c e n t c o n f i d e n c e i n t e r v a l s c o r r e s p o n d i n g t o d i f f e r e n t ages, w i t h i n the range of the d a t a , a re p r e s e n t e d i n T a b l e 28. The c l a s s i f i c a t i o n of growth performance i s based on the c o n f i d e n c e i n t e r v a l s about the p r e d i c t e d average t o t a l h e i g h t f o r each age w i t h i n the range 194 of the d a t a . Three performance c l a s s e s a r e s u g g e s t e d : "poor", "average" and "good" c o r r e s p o n d i n g t o whether the average t o t a l h e i g h t of a p l a n t a t i o n a t a s p e c i f i e d age i s below the lower l i m i t , between the lower and upper l i m i t s or above the upper l i m i t r e s p e c t i v e l y . Of c o u r s e , f u r t h e r c l a s s e s may be i n t r o d u c e d by a d d i n g , f o r example, 99 p e r c e n t c o n f i d e n c e l i m i t s t o t h i s P r o b a b i l i t y Assessmet System (PAS). T a b l e 28. P r o b a b i l i t y Assessment System (PAS) f o r young S i t k a s p ruce p l a n t a t i o n s , u s i n g p r e d i c t e d average t o t a l h e i g h t , and 95 p e r c e n t c o n f i d e n c e l i m i t s . P.A.S. POOR AVERAGE GOOD T o t a l age Lower 95% l i m i t (m). P r e d i c t e d h e i g h t (m). Upper 95% l i m i t (m). 5 1.2 1 .3 1 .4 6 1 .7 1 .9 2.0 7 2.2 2.4 2.7 8 2.7 3. 1 3.4 9 3.2 3.7 4. 1 10 3.7 4.2 4.8 1 1 4.2 4.8 5.4 1 2 4.7 5.2 5.9 1 3 ' 5.0 5.7 6.4 1 4 5.2 6.0 6.9 1 5 5.3 6.3 7.4 16 5.4 6.5 7.9 The p r i n c i p l e u n d e r l y i n g PAS may have v e r y wide a p p l i c a b i l i t y i n f o r e s t r y and o t h e r f i e l d s . ' W h i l e the p r e s e n t 195 a n a l y s i s i s s e v e r e l y l i m i t e d by "gaps" i n these d a t a i t does p r o v i d e an i n e x p e n s i v e , p r a c t i c a l and o b j e c t i v e method of a s s e s s i n g performance of young S i t k a spruce i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h C olumbia. I t i s h i g h l y recommended t h a t more data be c o l l e c t e d from young S i t k a spruce p l a n t a t i o n s and a b e t t e r "best i n t e r p r e t i v e m a t h e m a t i c a l model" r e f i t t e d t o the d a t a . T h i s would l e a d t o a r e v i s i o n of the PAS f o r S i t k a s p r u c e . The PAS uses average t o t a l h e i g h t of the p l a n t a t i o n as a c r i t e r i o n of performance a t s p e c i f i e d ages. T h i s does not imply t h a t average t o t a l h e i g h t i s the o n l y v a r i a b l e which s h o u l d be used i n a s s e s s i n g p l a n t a t i o n performance. Average crown w i d t h , f o r example, i s a n o t h e r v a r i a b l e which c o u l d be used as i t too can be measured q u i c k l y , c h e a p l y and a c c u r a t e l y . I t i s u n d e r s t o o d t h a t : 1. The g r e a t e r the sample s i z e used t o compute the average t o t a l h e i g h t , the more r e l i a b l e w i l l be the PAS r e s u l t . 2. The PAS assumes t h a t the p l a n t a t i o n i s a d e q u a t e l y s t o c k e d B e f o r e PAS may be used o p e r a t i o n a l l y i t i s h i g h l y recommended t h a t more t o t a l h e i g h t and t o t a l age d a t a from p l a n t a t i o n s be . c o l l e c t e d , a b e t t e r i n t e r p r e t i v e m a t h e m a t i c a l model f i t t e d and f i e l d t r i a l s c a r r i e d out t o t e s t the v a l i d i t y of system. The PAS has s e v e r a l t h e o r e t i c a l l i m i t a t i o n s , which o r i g i n a t e i n the u n d e r l y i n g assumptions of r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s i s , 1 96 such as the a p p r o p r i a t e n e s s of the model. A f u l l d i s c u s s i o n of t h e s e l i m i t a t i o n s i s beyond the scope of t h i s paper, however, the user of PAS s h o u l d not c o n s i d e r i t i n f a l l i b l e , but merely as a p r e l i m i n a r y guide u n t i l a b e t t e r system i s d e v e l o p e d . 197 CHAPTER TEN. Economics of S i t k a spruce i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia. 10:1 I n t r o d u c t i o n . The o b j e c t i v e of t h i s c h a p t e r i s t o e v a l u a t e the economic importance of S i t k a s p r u c e , and emphasize the n e c e s s i t y of p r o v i d i n g r e a l f i n a n c i a l i n c e n t i v e f o r i n t e n s i v e f o r e s t management of S i t k a spruce i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia. 10:2 Economic r o l e of S i t k a spruce i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia. Mac S i u r t a i n (1979) r e v i e w e d economic t r e n d s of S i t k a spruce i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia d u r i n g the p e r i o d 1914-77. H i s a n a l y s i s was c o n c e n t r a t e d on f o u r main a s p e c t s of the s p e c i e s , namely: 1. Volume of S i t k a spruce c u t by year and f o r e s t r e g i o n . 2. Average s e l l i n g p r i c e of S i t k a spruce l o g s by year and grade. 198 3. Volume of S i t k a spruce l o g s e x p o r t e d by year and c o u n t r y of d e s t i n a t i o n . 4. V a l u e of S i t k a spruce l o g e x p o r t s by year and c o u n t r y of d e s t i n a t i o n . A r e v i s e d updated and expanded summary of the f o u r economic a s p e c t s of S i t k a spruce w i l l f o l l o w , p l u s a new s e c t i o n on the impact of l o g e x p o r t p o l i c y on the management of the s p e c i e s i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia. 10:2:1 Volume of S i t k a spruce c u t . The a n n u a l q u a n t i t y of S i t k a spruce c u t i n B r i t i s h Columbia by f o r e s t r e g i o n was e x t r a c t e d from the M i n i s t r y of F o r e s t s Annual R e p o r t s (1914-79). I t was assumed t h a t the volume r e p o r t e d under " s p r u c e " f o r each f o r e s t r e g i o n on the c o a s t r e f e r r e d p r i m a r i l y t o S i t k a s p r u c e . The annual volume of S i t k a spruce c u t i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia i n m3 by f o r e s t r e g i o n d u r i n g the p e r i o d 1914-79 i s p r e s e n t e d i n F i g u r e 22. 199 F i g u r e 22. Annual volume of S i t k a s pruce c u t i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia i n m3, by f o r e s t r e g i o n , d u r i n g the p e r i o d 1914-79. l 1 1 1 1 1 I I I 3 913 39] 9 1 925 1931 3937 19-3 ]249 3 955 1961 3961 1913 1919 Y E A R S I t i s i m m e d i a t e l y apparent t h a t the P r i n c e Rupert F o r e s t Region (PRFR) has been, and c o n t i n u e s t o be, the most i m p o r t a n t f o r e s t r e g i o n f o r the p r o d u c t i o n of S i t k a s p r u c e . The volume c u t i n 1918 peaked a t 700,000 m3 due p r i m a r i l y t o the i n c r e a s e d demand f o r " a e r o p l a n e s p r u c e " d u r i n g the F i r s t World War. A f t e r the war, the a n n u a l volume c u t d e c r e a s e d and f l u c t u a t e d from y e a r - t o - y e a r u n t i l the onset of the Second World War. S i t k a s pruce was a g a i n i n h i g h demand, but t o a l e s s e r e x t e n t than i n 1918. T h i s time t h e s p e c i e s was used e x t e n s i v e l y f o r c o n s t r u c t i o n of the "Mosquito Bomber". A f t e r the war the a n n u a l volume c u t dropped and f l u c t u a t e d u n t i l i t began t o r i s e s t e a d i l y s i n c e 1960. In 1966 f o r the f i r s t time i n over f o u r decades the a n n u a l volume of S i t k a s pruce c u t i n t h i s r e g i o n exceeded the 200 1918 h a r v e s t . Throughout the 1960's the annual volume c u t c o n t i n u e d t o r i s e s t e a d i l y and reached an a l l time maximum of 950,000 m3 i n 1973, which was a "boom" year f o r the f o r e s t economy i n B r i t i s h Columbia. The average annual volume c u t i n t h i s r e g i o n s i n c e 1970 has been a p p r o x i m a t e l y 680,000 m3, however, l a r g e annual' f l u c t u a t i o n s are c h a r a c t e r i s t i c of the s p e c i e s i n the P r i n c e Rupert F o r e s t R e g i o n . The Vancouver I s l a n d F o r e s t Region was i n c o r p o r a t e d i n t o the Vancouver F o r e s t Region (VFR) i n 1922. The VFR i s , t h e r e f o r e , the o n l y o t h e r f o r e s t r e g i o n i n Canada p r o d u c i n g S i t k a s p r u c e . The most s t r i k i n g f e a t u r e of the t r e n d i n annual volume c u t i s the c o m p a r a t i v e l y s m a l l annual f l u c t u a t i o n s over the 66 year p e r i o d . Peaks i n a n n u a l p r o d u c t i o n o c c u r r e d i n 1918, '42, '48. The average annual c u t i n the r e g i o n has been i n c r e a s i n g s t e a d i l y s i n c e 1962, w i t h the o v e r a l l maximum of 438,000 m3 i n 1978. S i n c e 1970 the average has been r o u g h l y 350,000 m3, which i s r o u g h l y h a l f the P r i n c e Rupert F o r e s t Region average a n n u a l volume f o r the same p e r i o d . F i g u r e 22 a l s o shows the t o t a l a n n u a l volume of S i t k a s p ruce c u t i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia from 1914-79. The annual volume c u t rose d r a m a t i c a l l y from 1914 t o 1918 i n response t o i n c r e a s e d demand f o r a i r c r a f t lumber. A s t a g g e r i n g 1,000,000 m3 was h a r v e s t e d i n 1918. P e r r y (1941) d e s c r i b e d S i t k a spruce as "the w o r l d ' s most v a l u a b l e wood f o r a i r c r a f t c o n s t r u c t i o n " . A f t e r the war t h e demand, and c o n s e q u e n t l y the annual volume 201 c u t , f e l l u n t i l the onset of the Second World War saw a d r a m a t i c r e v i v a l i n the wooden a i r c r a f t i n d u s t r y . S i t k a spruce q u i c k l y became the main source of s u p p l y and the s t a n d a r d by which a l l o t h e r s p e c i e s were e v a l u a t e d p r i m a r i l y because of i t s s u p e r i o r t e c h n i c a l q u a l i t i e s , l a r g e s i z e and the a v a i l a b i l i t y and p r o p o r t i o n of c l e a r s t o c k s ( U n i t e d S t a t e s Department of A g r i c u l t u r e , 1941). The 1944 peak h a r v e s t of 760,000 m3 was 25 p e r c e n t l e s s than the 1918 volume. T h i s r e f l e c t e d a new t r e n d i n a i r c r a f t c o n s t r u c t i o n , n a t u r a l raw m a t e r i a l , namely wood, was b e i n g r e p l a c e d by m e t a l a l l o y s . As t h i s t r e n d c o n t i n u e d the volume of S i t k a spruce r e q u i r e d f o r a i r c r a f t c o n s t r u c t i o n d w i n d l e d , u n t i l now o n l y s m a l l q u a n t i t i e s are sought f o r c o n s t r u c t i o n of g l i d e r s and i n e x p e n s i v e l i g h t a i r c r a f t . S i t k a spruce i s so v e r s a t i l e a s p e c i e s t h a t , n o t -w i t h s t a n d i n g i t s s u b s t i t u t i o n i n the a i r c r a f t i n d u s t r y , the demand and c o n s e q u e n t l y the annual volume h a r v e s t e d has r i s e n s t e a d i l y s i n c e 1960. I t was not u n t i l 1966 t h a t the 1918 annual h a r v e s t was exceeded and the a l l - t i m e r e c o r d h a r v e s t o c c u r r e d i n 1973 w i t h 1,300,000 m3. The average annual t o t a l volume h a r v e s t e d s i n c e 1960 i s r o u g h l y 1,000,000 m3 i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h C olumbia. F u r t h e r e x a m i n a t i o n of F i g u r e 22 i n d i c a t e s t h a t the annual volume c u t i n the P r i n c e Rupert F o r e s t Region i s v e r y 202 h i g h l y c o r r e l a t e d w i t h the t o t a l a n n u a l volume h a r v e s t e d on the c o a s t . Any major i n c r e a s e or d e c r e a s e i n annual volume h a r v e s t e d has been p r i m a r i l y i n the P r i n c e Rupert F o r e s t R e g i o n . In o r d e r t o q u a n t i f y the r e l a t i v e importance of the P r i n c e Rupert F o r e s t Region and the Vancouver F o r e s t Region i n r e l a t i o n t o r e s e r v e s and p r o d u c t i o n of S i t k a s p r u c e i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h C olumbia, a c o n c i s e summary of the most r e c e n t s t a t i s t i c s p e r t a i n i n g t o S i t k a spruce has been e x t r a c t e d from the F o r e s t and Range Resource A n a l y s i s T e c h n i c a l Report ( M i n i s t r y of F o r e s t s , 1980a), and i s p r e s e n t e d i n T a b l e 29. Table 29. S i t k a spruce s t a t i s t i c s i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia. F o r e s t Region Management A u t h o r i t y Area (ha. ) % Area > 120 + y e a r s . Volume ( 1 0 6 X m3. ) P r i n c e Rupert Crown l a n d T.F.L. S u b t o t a l 110,652 168,317 278,969 88 80 83 99 Vancouver Crown l a n d T.F.L. S u b t o t a l 21,556 99,836 121,392 60 60 60 1 3 P r i n c e Rupert and Vancouver Coast t o t a l 400,361 76 1 1 2 Note: T.F.L. = Tree Farm L i c e n c e . T h i s t a b l e c o n f i r m s the predominance of the P r i n c e Rupert F o r e s t Region i n r e l a t i o n t o the s p e c i e s w i t h 70 p e r c e n t of the t o t a l p r o v i n c i a l S i t k a s p ruce a r e a and 88 p e r c e n t of the t o t a l p r o v i n c i a l mature volume of the s p e c i e s . An i m p o r t a n t 203 p o i n t t o note i s t h a t 83 p e r c e n t of the t o t a l p r o d u c t i v e a r e a of S i t k a spruce i n t h i s r e g i o n i s c l a s s i f i e d as b e i n g g r e a t e r than 120 y e a r s of age. T h i s heavy c o n c e n t r a t i o n i n the 120+ year age c l a s s would seem t o i n d i c a t e a c o n t i n u e d s u p p l y of S i t k a spruce i n the decades ahead. Care s h o u l d be taken not t o read too much i n t o t h i s v a l u e as no mention i s made of the q u a l i t y or a c c e s s i b i l i t y of t h e s e stands (see 8:2:4). Given the r e l a t i v e importance of S i t k a spruce i n Great B r i t a i n and I r e l a n d (see T a b l e s 21, 2 2 ) , i t i s s i g n i f i c a n t here t o r e c o r d the d i f f e r e n c e i n the age c l a s s s t r u c t u r e of S i t k a s p ruce between the two c o n t i n e n t a l r e g i o n s of i n t e r e s t . In c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia, 76 p e r c e n t of the t o t a l a r e a of S i t k a spruce i s r e p o r t e d t o be g r e a t e r than 120 y e a r s o l d . T h i s c o n t r a s t s g r e a t l y w i t h Great B r i t a i n and I r e l a n d where o n l y 5.4 p e r c e n t of the t o t a l a r ea of S i t k a spruce i s g r e a t e r than 40 y e a r s . The enormous volume p r o d u c i n g p o t e n t i a l of S i t k a spruce has been r e f e r e n c e d ( 8 : 2 : 2 ) , but perhaps more c o n v i n c i n g a r e the p r o d u c t i o n f o r e c a s t s f o r S i t k a spruce i n I r e l a n d f o r the next 25 y e a r s . T a b l e 30 p r e s e n t s S i t k a spruce p r o d u c t i o n f o r e c a s t s f o r E i r e and N o r t h e r n I r e l a n d i n m3 f o r the p e r i o d 1980-2004. 204 T a b l e 30. S i t k a spruce p r o d u c t i o n f o r e c a s t s f o r E i r e and N o r t h e r n I r e l a n d i n m3, 1980-2004. • Year E i re 1 N o r t h e r n I r e l a n d 2 1980 289,600 33,000 1985 583,200 73,000 1 990 784,300 152,000 1995 948,800 206,000 2000 1 , 157,200 360,000 2004 1,320,800 1. P u r c e l l (1977), 2. S a v i l l and McEwen (1978). W i t h i n two decades annual p r o d u c t i o n of S i t k a spruce i n E i r e w i l l q u a d r u p l e , w h i l e i n N o r t h e r n I r e l a n d annual p r o d u c t i o n w i l l i n c r e a s e about t e n - f o l d . In e f f e c t , E i r e and N o r t h e r n I r e l a n d combined w i l l be p r o d u c i n g more S i t k a spruce a n n u a l l y by the t u r n of the c e n t u r y than has ever been produced i n a s i n g l e year i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h C olumbia. When one c o n s i d e r s the t o t a l a r e a of S i t k a s pruce i n Gre a t B r i t a i n and I r e l a n d i t i s q u i t e p o s s i b l e t h a t w i t h i n f o u r decades t h e s e i s l a n d s w i l l be p r o d u c i n g more S i t k a spruce a n n u a l l y than the e n t i r e n a t u r a l range of the s p e c i e s i n Western N o r t h A m e r i c a . 205 10:2:2 V a l u e of S i t k a s p r u c e . The average s e l l i n g p r i c e s of No.1, No.2, No.3 and " a l l g r a d e s " (AG) S i t k a s pruce s i n c e 1933, as d e f i n e d by the M i n i s t r y of F o r e s t s l o g g r a d i n g r u l e s , were e x t r a c t e d from the C o u n c i l of F o r e s t I n d u s t r i e s of B r i t i s h Columbia r e c o r d s ( S e n i o r , 1978). These v a l u e s are d e r i v e d from s a l e s r e p o r t e d t o the C o u n c i l of F o r e s t I n d u s t r i e s of B r i t i s h Columbia by i t s members and l o g b r o k e r s . These l o g p r i c e s a r e supposed t o r e p r e s e n t the " t r u e market v a l u e " , however, t h i s has been q u e s t i o n e d ( P e a r s e , 1976; D a v i e s , 1977; H a l e y , 1978). I t i s assumed t h a t the average s e l l i n g p r i c e s u p p l i e d by the C o u n c i l of F o r e s t I n d u s t r i e s of B r i t i s h Columbia r e f e r s p r i m a r i l y t o S i t k a s p r u c e , as so few i n v o i c e s of " i n t e r i o r s p r u c e " a r e r e p o r t e d , t h a t t h e i r c o n t r i b u t i o n t o the average s e l l i n g p r i c e i s c o n s i d e r e d i n s i g n i f i c a n t . The average s e l l i n g p r i c e s f o r a l l grades were r e c o r d e d i n $/m.b.f.m. p r i o r t o 1971 and $ / c u n i t t h e r e a f t e r . A l l average s e l l i n g p r i c e s have been c o n v e r t e d t o $/m3 assuming the f o l l o w i n g c o n v e r s i o n f a c t o r s per c u b i c f o o t : 6.9, 6.5, 6.3 and 6.54 f o r No.1, No.2, No.3 and " a l l grades" of S i t k a s pruce r e s p e c t i v e l y ( S e n i o r , 1978). Comparison of nominal d o l l a r v a l u e s over any extended p e r i o d of time i s not recommended because of changes i n p u r c h a s i n g power r e s u l t i n g from i n f l a t i o n . Assuming t h a t the 206 q u a l i t y of the p r o d u c t s remains c o n s t a n t over t i m e , a l l nominal d o l l a r v a l u e s were c o n v e r t e d t o r e a l d o l l a r v a l u e s by d i v i d i n g by the i n d u s t r i a l s e l l i n g p r i c e index f o r wood i n d u s t r i e s (1971 = 100) ( S t a t i s t i c s Canada, 1978). The r e a l average s e l l i n g p r i c e s f o r No.1, No.2, No.3 and " a l l g r a d e s " of S i t k a s p r u c e f o r the p e r i o d 1956-79 a r e p r e s e n t e d i n F i g u r e 23. F i g u r e 23. The average s e l l i n g p r i c e s of No.1, No.2, No.3 and " a l l g r a d e s " S i t k a s pruce i n r e a l $/m3 f o r the p e r i o d 1956-79, i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia. i ~j i 1 1 i i r i i i i i 1 1955 1957 1959 1 35 1 3 3 6 3 1965 3 3 67 3 9 6 9 1 97 3 1973 1 9 7 5 1 911 3 3 7 3 YEf lRS A s t r i k i n g f e a t u r e i s the c o m p a r a t i v e l y s t a b l e r e a l p r i c e d i f f e r e n t i a l between a l l grades of S i t k a spruce over the p e r i o d 1956-72. S i n c e 1973, a v e r y s u b s t a n t i a l r e a l p r i c e d i f f e r e n t i a l has d e v e l o p e d f o r No.1 and No.2 S i t k a s pruce l o g s . What has caused t h i s d i v e r g e n c e i n r e l a t i v e v a l u e s of d i f f e r e n t grades of S i t k a spruce ? The i n c r e a s e d demand f o r lumber i n Canada and the U n i t e d S t a t e s c o u p l e d w i t h the v e r y h i g h demand f o r prime q u a l i t y S i t k a spruce i n Japan were the main f a c t o r s 207 f o r the v e r y keen c o m p e t i t i o n which has r e s u l t e d i n these pronounced p r i c e d i f f e r e n t i a l s f o r No.1 and No.2 S i t k a spruce l o g s . The q u e s t i o n a r i s e s , w i l l t hese v e r y s t r o n g premiums f o r No.1 and No.2 S i t k a spruce l o g s p e r s i s t ? T h i s i s a matter of s p e c u l a t i o n but based on the economic p r i n c i p l e t h a t as the s u p p l y of a product becomes s c a r c e r e l a t i v e t o the demand the v a l u e of t h a t p r o d u c t w i l l t end t o r i s e , i t i s l i k e l y t h a t the premiums f o r top q u a l i t y S i t k a spruce l o g s w i l l p e r s i s t i n the f o r s e e a b l e f u t u r e . The e x c e p t i o n a l q u a l i t i e s of No.1 S i t k a spruce l o g s w i l l c o n t i n u e t o be h i g h l y sought both i n N o r t h America and abroad, p a r t i c u l a r l y by the Japanese. I t s h o u l d be p o i n t e d out t h a t , 1973 and 1979 were e x c e p t i o n a l l y good y e a r s i n terms of average s e l l i n g p r i c e f o r S i t k a spruce l o g s . Never b e f o r e have No.1, and No.2 l o g s enjoyed such h i g h premiums. H e r e i n l i e s the r e a l f i n a n c i a l i n c e n t i v e f o r p r o d u c t i o n of t o p q u a l i t y l o g s t h r o u g h i n t e n s i f i c a t i o n of f o r e s t management. These e x c e p t i o n a l l y h i g h premiums r e s u l t e d i n p a r t from the v e r y h i g h demand f o r l o g s on the e x p o r t market. Adams (1974) s t a t e d " e x p o r t l o g s show h i g h e r v a l u e s than the same grades f o r domestic use". Haynes (1976) p o i n t e d out " t h a t h i g h e r stumpage p r i c e s due t o the e x p o r t market a r e an i n c e n t i v e f o r i n t e n s i v e f o r e s t management, which i n c r e a s e s t i m b e r s u p p l y and l e a d s t o b e t t e r u t i l i z a t i o n " . D a r r (1975) s t a t e d " h i g h e r stumpage p r i c e s a r e an i n c e n t i v e f o r more p r o d u c t i v e f o r e s t management; h i g h e r p r i c e s i n the e x p o r t market i n c r e a s e s t h i s i n c e n t i v e . Whether or not i n c r e a s e d stumpage r e c e i p t s a r e used t o i n t e n s i f y l a n d management or f o r o t h e r purposes depends on 208 the o b j e c t i v e s and c a p a b i l i t i e s of the i n d i v i d u a l landowner". P u b l i c and p r i v a t e f o r e s t managers s h o u l d s t r i v e t o take f u l l advantage of the s u r p l u s revenue r e s u l t i n g from l o g e x p o r t s . Thus the importance of the " l o g e x p o r t market" i s seen i n p r o v i d i n g the premiums which i n t u r n p r o v i d e the r e a l f i n a n c i a l i n c e n t i v e f o r more i n t e n s i v e f o r e s t management. For t h i s reason the demand f o r t o p q u a l i t y l o g s , and the annual volume of S i t k a spruce l o g e x p o r t s w i l l be examined i n some d e t a i l below. S u g g e s t i o n s w i l l be made f o r how the premiums which e x i s t can be used t o p r o v i d e the n e c e s s a r y f u n d i n g f o r i n t e n s i f i c a t i o n of management of S i t k a spruce i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h C olumbia. 10:2:3 Annual volume of S i t k a spruce l o g e x p o r t s . The annual volume of S i t k a spruce l o g e x p o r t s were e x t r a c t e d from Domestic E x p o r t r e c o r d s ( S t a t i s t i c s Canada, 1937-79 ) . The a n n u a l volume of S i t k a s pruce l o g e x p o r t s i n m3, by c o u n t r y of d e s t i n a t i o n , f o r the p e r i o d 1937-79 i s p r e s e n t e d i n F i g u r e 24. 209 F i g u r e 24. Annual volume of S i t k a s p r u c e l o g e x p o r t s from c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia i n m3, by c o u n t r y of d e s t i n a t i o n , f o r the p e r i o d 1937-79. o o CO 1934 3939 3944 3949 3954 1959 3954 3 969 1974 3979 YERRS The U n i t e d S t a t e s was the major w o r l d i m p o r t e r of S i t k a spruce l o g s from c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia d u r i n g the Second World War. A f t e r the war t h i s demand d w i n d l e d and, w i t h i t , the dominance of the U n i t e d S t a t e s as the major i m p o r t e r . The maximum an n u a l volume of 87,000 m3 e x p o r t e d t o the U n i t e d S t a t e s , which o c c u r r e d i n 1938, has not y e t been s u r p a s s e d . However, the demand f o r S i t k a s pruce l o g s e x p o r t s t o the U n i t e d S t a t e s has r i s e n g r a d u a l l y s i n c e 1963. S t a t i s t i c s Canada has no p u b l i s h e d r e c o r d s of S i t k a s p r u c e l o g e x p o r t s f o r 1961-62. The volume e x p o r t e d t o Japan p r i o r t o 1940 was c o m p a r a t i v e l y i n s i g n i f i c a n t . Under the p r o v i s i o n s of the War Measures A c t (1940) the Timber C o n t r o l l e r p r o h i b i t e d the e x p o r t of unmanufactured D o u g l a s - f i r t o Japan f o r 210 n a t i o n a l s e c u r i t y r e a s o n s . In 1942, the ban was extended t o i n c l u d e a l l unmanufactured wood p r o d u c t s which t e r m i n a t e d S i t k a spruce l o g e x p o r t s t o Japan f o r almost two decades. In 1963, S i t k a spruce l o g e x p o r t s t o Japan were resumed and s i n c e then Japan has c o m p l e t e l y dominated the market f o r S i t k a spruce l o g s from B r i t i s h C o lumbia. The annua l volume e x p o r t e d f l u c t u a t e s w i d e l y from y e a r - t o - y e a r w i t h 1970 b e i n g the h i g h e s t t o date w i t h 234,000 m3. S i n c e 1963, the Japanese l o g market has on average a c c o u n t e d f o r more than 90 p e r c e n t of the annual volume e x p o r t e d . In 1964, v i r t u a l l y 100 p e r c e n t of the volume went t o Japan. C l e a r l y the s u r v i v a l of the S i t k a spruce l o g e x p o r t market depends on the Japanese. Darr (1975) r e v i e w e d f a c t o r s i n f l u e n c i n g the demand f o r l o g e x p o r t s i n the P a c i f i c Northwest and s t a t e d " p o p u l a t i o n , income, mortgage, i n t e r e s t r a t e s , money a v a i l a b i l i t y , and o t h e r c o s t components of h o u s i n g a r e examples of f a c t o r s which determine the demand f o r c o n s t r u c t i o n i n the U n i t e d S t a t e s and Japan. These v a r i a b l e s change over time and l e a d t o c y c l e s i n c o n s t r u c t i o n demand." T h i s h e l p s e x p l a i n the wide f l u c t u a t i o n s i n the annua l volume of S i t k a s pruce l o g e x p o r t s from B r i t i s h C o lumbia. The h e a l t h of the N o r t h American lumber market a l s o a f f e c t s S i t k a s pruce l o g e x p o r t s . D a v i e s (1977) r e f e r r i n g t o l o g e x p o r t s from B r i t i s h Columbia s t a t e d " e x p o r t s tend t o v a r y i n v e r s e l y w i t h the h e a l t h of the N o r t h American lumber market, when lumber demand and p r i c e s a r e h i g h the domesti c i n d u s t r y consumes a l l l o g p r o d u c t i o n and v e r y l i t t l e m a t e r i a l i s d i r e c t e d towards the e x p o r t market". For example, i n 1973 when the number 21 1 of h o u s i n g s t a r t s and lumber p r i c e s reached r e c o r d h i g h l e v e l s S i t k a s pruce l o g e x p o r t s t o Japan amounted t o o n l y 57,000 m3, the l o w e s t a n n u a l volume i n the p e r i o d 1963-79. In c o n t r a s t , i n 1970 when the U n i t e d S t a t e s lumber market was d e p r e s s e d , S i t k a spruce l o g e x p o r t s t o Japan reached an a l l time h i g h of over 234,000 m3. In an attempt t o combat t h e s e f l u c t u a t i o n s Japanese l o g i m p o r t e r s a r e f o r c e d t o pay h i g h premiums f o r t o p q u a l i t y l o g s t o d i v e r t them from domestic markets (see 10:2:4 and F i g u r e 2 3 ) . What perc e n t a g e of the t o t a l S i t k a spruce annual c u t i s e x p o r t e d from B r i t i s h Columbia ? The r e l a t i v e importance of the annual volume of S i t k a spruce e x p o r t e d i n r e l a t i o n t o the t o t a l a nnual volume h a r v e s t e d can be a s s e s s e d from F i g u r e 25. A r e c o r d h i g h of 26 p e r c e n t of the t o t a l a nnual S i t k a s pruce h a r v e s t was e x p o r t e d i n 1938. From 1942-62 v i r t u a l l y a l l S i t k a spruce c u t was p r o c e s s e d i n B r i t i s h Columbia. From 1963, the t o t a l a n n u a l S i t k a s pruce h a r v e s t began t o i n c r e a s e s t e a d i l y as d i d the volume of S i t k a spruce l o g e x p o r t s . The perc e n t a g e of the t o t a l a n n u a l S i t k a s pruce h a r v e s t e x p o r t e d as l o g s has f l u c t u a t e d between f i v e and 21 p e r c e n t from 1963 t o 1979. C l e a r l y , the l o g e x p o r t market f o r S i t k a spruce i s w e l l e s t a b l i s h e d , and i n f a c t S i t k a s p r u c e i s the most i m p o r t a n t s p e c i e s e x p o r t e d from B r i t i s h Columbia ( D a v i e s , 1977). Pearse (1976) added "the t o t a l volume of t i m b e r h a r v e s t e d responds t o market c o n d i t i o n s , so t h a t the p e r c e n t a g e of p r o d u c t i o n e x p o r t e d .... tends t o move i n v e r s e l y t o the peaks and t r o u g h s i n f o r e s t p r o d u c t s markets". 212 F i g u r e 25. T o t a l a n n u a l volume of S i t k a spruce l o g s c u t and e x p o r t e d from c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia i n m3, f o r the p e r i o d 1937-79. CD ' L O . X o LP - J CJ U J )LD J V 0 L U M E CUT V O L U M E f . X P O R T E D 1934 3 939 1944 1949 1954 1959 1954 ] 959 1974 3 979 YEflRS % L i n d e l l (1978) p r o v i d e d a p e r s p e c t i v e of the t o t a l q u a n t i t y of l o g e x p o r t s from B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a , when he r e p o r t e d "I n 1975 l o g e x p o r t s t o t a l e d 150,000 c u n i t s or l e s s than one p e r c e n t of the t o t a l h a r v e s t w i t h i n the p r o v i n c e " . D u r i n g the p e r i o d the 1966-75 the a n n u a l volume e x p o r t e d as a p e r c e n t a g e of t o t a l volume s c a l e d ranged from 0.2 t o 2.6 p e r c e n t w i t h an a n n u a l average of o n l y 1.34 p e r c e n t ( P e a r s e , 1976). T h i s i s c o m p a r a t i v e l y low r e l a t i v e t o t h a t of the P a c i f i c N o r t h w e s t . Darr (1975) s t a t e d t h a t "by the 1970's the l o g e x p o r t market acc o u n t e d f o r about 15 p e r c e n t of the t i m b e r h a r v e s t i n Oregon and Washington" (see F i g u r e 2 6 ) . The d i f f e r e n c e i n the p e r c e n t a g e e x p o r t e d i s p r i m a r i l y a t t r i b u t a b l e t o d i f f e r e n c e s i n l o g e x p o r t p o l i c y i n the P a c i f i c Northwest and B r i t i s h Columbia. 213 10:2:4 Log e x p o r t p o l i c y . In B r i t i s h Columbia v e r y r i g i d r e s t r i c t i o n s on l o g e x p o r t s a r e e n f o r c e d j o i n t l y by the f e d e r a l and p r o v i n c i a l governments. L i n d e l l (1978) e x p l a i n e d "the key c o n s i d e r a t i o n f o r g r a n t i n g an e x p o r t p e r m i t i s t o e s t a b l i s h whether a p a r t i c u l a r a p p l i c a t i o n r e p r e s e n t s s u p p l i e s which a r e s u r p l u s t o domestic needs". At p r e s e n t , l o g e x p o r t e r s i n B r i t i s h Columbia who have been g r a n t e d a p r o v i n c i a l e x p o r t p e r m i t must pay a f i x e d d o l l a r " t i mber t a x " , which f o r S i t k a s pruce i s $ l 0 / c u n i t . Having a n a l y s e d the impacts of l o g e x p o r t r e s t r i c t i o n s , Pearse (1976) suggested t h a t i t would be i n "the best economic i n t e r e s t of the p r o v i n c e " t o r e v i s e the p r e s e n t p o l i c y by abandoning the p r e s e n t " p e r m i t system" and r e p l a c i n g the f i x e d d o l l a r t i m b e r t a x w i t h a s i m p l e "ad val o r e m " timber ta x a p p l i e d t o the e x p o r t s e l l i n g p r i c e . He suggested "a l e v y of something i n the o r d e r of 40 p e r c e n t " , and c o n c l u d e d t h a t e s t a b l i s h i n g such a t a x would ensure t h a t no e x p o r t s occur u n l e s s domestic u s e r s cannot p r o f i t a b l y use the m a t e r i a l . These r e v i s i o n s would l e a d t o a d d i t i o n a l c o m p e t i t i o n f o r l o g s i n B r i t i s h C o lumbia, which i n t u r n would r e s u l t i n h i g h e r p r i c e s f o r d o m e s t i c a l l y p r o c e s s e d t i m b e r , p r i c e s which would r e f l e c t the " t r u e market v a l u e " of B r i t i s h Columbian l o g s (see 10:2:2). There would be more e f f i c i e n t u t i l i z a t i o n of the f o r e s t r e s o u r c e and the wood p r o c e s s i n g s e c t o r would have t o become more e f f i c i e n t . D a v i e s (1977) r e v i e w e d the e n t i r e q u e s t i o n of l o g 214 e x p o r t s from B r i t i s h Columbia and c o n c l u d e d t h a t "the use of the 40 p e r c e n t t a x would be i n a p p r o p r i a t e " as suggested by Pearse (1976). He suggested "a p r o g r e s s i v e t a x system" would be more e f f e c t i v e as a p r i c e - r e l a t e d e x p o r t c o n t r o l system. T h i s i m p o r t a n t s u g g e s t i o n w i l l be r e f e r e n c e d a g a i n . A p a r t from the A g r i c u l t u r a l A p p r o p r i a t i o n s A c t (1974) which p r o h i b i t s the e x p o r t of unpr o c e s s e d t i m b e r from F e d e r a l f o r e s t l a n d s i n the P a c i f i c N o r t h w e s t , l o g e x p o r t r e s t r i c t i o n s from s t a t e and p r i v a t e f o r e s t l a n d i n Washington S t a t e a re m i n i m a l . T h e r e f o r e , the softwood l o g e x p o r t market i s s u p p l i e d p r i m a r i l y from s t a t e and p r i v a t e f o r e s t l a n d s . How g r e a t i s the demand f o r softwood l o g e x p o r t s and what f a c t o r s i n f l u e n c e t h i s demand ? The t o t a l annual volume of Japanese softwood l o g i m p o r t s , from the U n i t e d S t a t e s and Canada, i n m3 f o r the p e r i o d 1959-79 i s p r e s e n t e d i n F i g u r e 26 ( R i n f r e t - B o s t o n , 1974, H a y a s h i , 1981). 215 F i g u r e 26. T o t a l a n n u a l volume of Japanese softwood l o g i m p o r t s i n m 3, from the U n i t e d S t a t e s and Canada, f o r the p e r i o d 1959-79. 5 _ o -> o T O T A L USA T ' I 1 1 1 1 I I I 1359 1S51 JS53 1°65 )°E7 1359 137) 3973 1375 J 377 J373 TERRS C fl N fl 0 fl The s a l i e n t p o i n t s a r i s i n g from F i g u r e 26 a r e : 1. A phenomenal market e x i s t s f o r softwood l o g s i n Japan. 2. The volume of softwood l o g e x p o r t s from the P a c i f i c Northwest has r i s e n s t e a d i l y s i n c e 1 966. 3. The P a c i f i c Northwest e n j o y s a m o n o p o l i s t i c p o s i t i o n i n the N o r t h American l o g e x p o r t market w i t h Japan p r i m a r i l y because of l o g e x p o r t r e s t r i c t i o n s i n B r i t i s h Columbia. 4. The volume of Canadian l o g e x p o r t s i s a r t i f i c i a l l y d e p r e s s e d by the p r e s e n t l o g 216 e x p o r t p o l i c y . C l e a r l y the Japanese l o g i m p o r t s have had t o r e l y h e a v i l y on the P a c i f i c N o r t h w e s t . R i n f r e t - B o s t o n (1974), h a v i n g reviewed the economic t r e n d s i n softwood l o g e x p o r t s from the U n i t e d S t a t e s , a t t r i b u t e d t h i s s i t u a t i o n t o the f o l l o w i n g f a c t o r s : 1. U.S t i m b e r q u a l i t y and s p e c i e s s a t i s f y Japanese r e q u i r e m e n t s and p r e f e r e n c e s . 2. Canada, a p o t e n t i a l a l t e r n a t e t o U.S s o u r c e s , p r o h i b i t s e x p o r t s of l o g s u n l e s s h i g h l y r e s t r i c t i v e c o n d i t i o n s a re met. 3. The S o v i e t U n i o n , another a l t e r n a t e source has lower q u a l i t y l o g s and a r e l a t i v e l y undeveloped f o r e s t i n d u s t r y . G i v e n the t i m b e r q u a l i t y and s p e c i e s p r e f e r e n c e mentioned above, B r i t i s h Columbia c o u l d c e r t a i n l y compete w i t h the P a c i f i c Northwest i f the p r e s e n t l o g e x p o r t r e s t r i c t i o n s were r e v i s e d . R i n f r e t - B o s t o n (1974) r e p o r t e d t h a t " t h i s sharp e x p a n s i o n i n l o g e x p o r t s i s due t o the burgeo n i n g Japanese demand f o r wood p r o d u c t s . The c o m b i n a t i o n of v e r y r a p i d economic growth and a w o e f u l l y inadequate domestic h o u s i n g s t o c k has produced a c o n s t r u c t i o n and h o u s i n g boom of major p r o p o r t i o n s " . They c o n t i n u e d "because domest i c lumber output now p r o v i d e s o n l y about 44 p e r c e n t of Japanese consumption, the c o u n t r y i s f o r c e d 217 t o import huge and s t e a d i l y i n c r e a s i n g q u a n t i t i e s of l o g s and lumber". They added "the Japanese p r e f e r t o import l o g s r a t h e r than f i n i s h e d lumber". T h i s , they a t t r i b u t e d p r i m a r i l y t o the s t r u c t u r e of the f o r e s t p r o d u c t s i n d u s t r y i n Japan, and added t h a t " f o r e i g n s u p p l i e r s , t h e r e f o r e , . f i n d i t d i f f i c u l t t o massproduce lumber f o r the Japanese market". B r i t i s h Columbia, through the p r e s e n t l o g e x p o r t p o l i c y , has i n e f f e c t s u r r e n d e r e d t h i s "huge and s t e a d i l y i n c r e a s i n g " l o g e x p o r t market t o American s t a t e and p r i v a t e f o r e s t landowners i n the P a c i f i c N o r t h w e s t . Such p o l i c i e s may be t o l e r a t e d i f they were i n "the best economic i n t e r e s t of the p r o v i n c e " but Pearse (1976), D a v i e s (1977), and Haley (1978) have argued c o n v i n c i n g l y t h a t they a r e n o t . In f a c t , i t has been p o i n t e d out t h a t these p o l i c i e s a re t o t a l l y " i n c o n s i s t e n t " w i t h the M i n i s t r y of F o r e s t s p o l i c y of e n c o u r a g i n g i n t e n s i v e f o r e s t management i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia, as they g r e a t l y r e s t r i c t the f i n a n c i a l i n c e n t i v e f o r t o p q u a l i t y l o g p r o d u c t i o n ( P e a r s e , 1 976) . I f p r e s e n t l o g e x p o r t p o l i c y i s r e v i s e d , as suggested by many a u t h o r s , l o g e x p o r t s from B r i t i s h Columbia would c e r t a i n l y i n c r e a s e , as would employment, i n the l o g e x p o r t i n d u s t r y . A s u b s t a n t i a l p e r c e n t a g e of the i n c r e a s e d " s u r p l u s revenue" a c c r u i n g t o t o p q u a l i t y l o g s c o u l d b e s t be c a p t u r e d by "a p r o g r e s s i v e t a x system". T h i s i n c r e a s e d government revenue c o u l d be used as a major source of f i n a n c e f o r i n t e n s i v e f o r e s t 218 management i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia. For w h i l e a g r e a t d e a l has been w r i t t e n c o n c e r n i n g the need f o r more i n t e n s i v e f o r e s t management, l i t t l e can be a c h i e v e d w i t h o u t the h a r d cash t o pay f o r i t . In the P a c i f i c N o r t h w e s t , s t a t e and p r i v a t e f o r e s t landowners a t t r i b u t e the l o g e x p o r t market w i t h p r o v i d i n g the i n c e n t i v e s f o r i n t e n s i v e f o r e s t management ( D a r r , 1975, Haynes, 1976). With "a p r o g r e s s i v e t a x system" and r e v i s i o n of the c u r r e n t l o g e x p o r t p o l i c y , B r i t i s h Columbia can do the same. From the f o r e s t management and l o g p r o d u c i n g p e r s p e c t i v e the i n c r e a s e d government revenue, from the proposed r e v i s i o n of the t i m b e r t a x , c o u l d be d i r e c t e d t o f i n a n c e i n t e n s i v e f o r e s t management of the r e s o u r c e . I n t e n s i v e f o r e s t management i s v e r y e x p e n s i v e , and the l o g p r o d u c i n g s e c t o r must be p r o v i d e d w i t h " t i m b e r - g r o w i n g i n c e n t i v e s " Smith (1977a). He c o n t i n u e d "one of the be s t i n c e n t i v e s f o r t i m b e r growth i s an i n c r e a s e i n v a l u e of stumpage. ... the P a c i f i c Northwest S t a t e s have enjoy e d v e r y h i g h stumpage v a l u e s , p a r t l y as a r e s u l t of l o g e x p o r t s t o Japan. B.C tim b e r growers a l s o s h o u l d c o n s i d e r p o s s i b l e g a i n s from l o g e x p o r t s . " R e v i s i o n s of l o g e x p o r t p o l i c y c o u l d p r o v i d e r e a l f i n a n c i a l i n c e n t i v e and s i g n i f i c a n t l y i n c r e a s e the funds a v a i l a b l e t o f i n a n c e i n t e n s i v e f o r e s t management i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia. 219 10:2:5 V a l u e of S i t k a spruce l o g e x p o r t s . The v a l u e of S i t k a s pruce l o g e x p o r t s t o Japan and the U n i t e d S t a t e s have been e x t r a c t e d from Domestic E x p o r t r e c o r d s ( S t a t i s t i c s Canada, 1937-79) and c o n v e r t e d t o r e a l d o l l a r v a l u e s by d i v i s i o n by the i n d u s t r i a l s e l l i n g p r i c e index f o r wood i n d u s t r i e s (1971 = 100) f o r the p e r i o d 1956-79 ( S t a t i s t i c s Canada, 1978). The t o t a l a n n u a l v a l u e of S i t k a s pruce l o g e x p o r t s i n r e a l $000, by c o u n t r y of d e s t i n a t i o n , f o r the p e r i o d 1956-79 i s p r e s e n t e d i n F i g u r e 27. F i g u r e 27. The t o t a l a n n u a l v a l u e of S i t k a spruce l o g e x p o r t s from c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia i n r e a l $000, by c o u n t r y of d e s t i n a t i o n , f o r the p e r i o d 1956-79. 19SS 33S7 1953 1361 1363 136S }367 3969 1371 3373 1975 1377 3373 YEARS A s t r o n g i n c r e a s i n g t r e n d i n r e a l revenue from e x p o r t s a l e s of S i t k a spruce l o g s i s e v i d e n t . S e v e r a l f a c t o r s i n f l u e n c i n g the v a l u e and volume of S i t k a s pruce l o g e x p o r t s t o 220 Japan over the p a s t 15 y e a r s have p r e v i o u s l y been d i s c u s s e d , however, the s t r o n g p o s i t i o n of the Japanese yen r e l a t i v e t o the Canadian d o l l a r has a l s o had a major impact. The yen has been i n c r e a s i n g i n v a l u e r e l a t i v e t o the Canadian d o l l a r over t h i s p e r i o d , which has, i n e f f e c t , i n c r e a s e d the p u r c h a s i n g power of Japanese c u r r e n c y . Darr (1975) r e f e r r i n g t o the e x c e p t i o n a l l y h i g h e x p o r t l o g p r i c e s i n 1972-3 i n the P a c i f i c Northwest s t a t e d t h a t " d e v a l u a t i o n of the U.S d o l l a r r e l a t i v e t o the Japanese yen and r a p i d l y i n c r e a s i n g demand i n Japan a p p a r e n t l y a t t r i b u t e d t o the jump i n p r i c e " . Adams (1974) added "the sharp r i s e i n l o g p r i c e s can be e x p l a i n e d by such t h i n g s as ... the i n t e r n a t i o n a l monetary r e v a l u a t i o n s which made p r i c e s i n Japanese c u r r e n c y e q u i v a l e n t t o s i g n i f i c a n t l y h i g h e r p r i c e s i n d o l l a r s and ... the h i g h e r r e l a t i v e v a l u e p l a c e d on lumber and wood p r o d u c t s i n the Japanese economy". The v a s t bulk of the revenue from S i t k a spruce l o g e x p o r t s a c c r u i n g t o B r i t i s h Columbia has come from Japan (see F i g u r e 2 7 ) . As mentioned e a r l i e r , the Japanese are o f t e n f o r c e d t o pay v e r y h i g h p r i c e s t o d i v e r t l o g s from e s t a b l i s h e d and more s t a b l e domestic markets. Given t h a t , the Japanese market i s w i l l i n g t o pay t h e s e h i g h p r i c e s f o r l o g s , the r e a l f i n a n c i a l i n c e n t i v e which they p r o v i d e t o produce h i g h q u a l i t y l o g s and i n t e n s i f y f o r e s t management s h o u l d be t a k e n f u l l advantage o f , as i s the case i n the P a c i f i c N o r t h w e s t . I t i s h i g h time t h a t the government of B r i t i s h Columbia r e v i s e the p r e s e n t l o g e x p o r t r e s t r i c t i o n s and p r o v i d e some i n c e n t i v e t o the l o g p r o d u c i n g s e c t o r of the f o r e s t i n d u s t r y . B r i t i s h Columbia e n j o y s a n a t u r a l 221 c o m p e t i t i v e advantage i n l o g p r o d u c t i o n and F i g u r e 26 i n d i c a t e s the e x t e n t of the "huge and s t e a d i l y i n c r e a s i n g " market f o r l o g s i n Japan. B r i t i s h Columbia s h o u l d i n t r o d u c e a p r o g r e s s i v e t i m b e r t a x system d e s i g n e d t o p r o v i d e some of the much needed f u n d i n g f o r i n t e n s i v e f o r e s t management of S i t k a spruce i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia. 10:2:6 Management and economic i m p l i c a t i o n s . The P r i n c e Rupert F o r e s t Region has been, and w i l l c o n t i n u e t o be, the most i m p o r t a n t f o r e s t r e g i o n f o r the p r o d u c t i o n of S i t k a spruce i n Canada. F u t u r e e f f o r t s a t managing, r e s e a r c h i n g and m a r k e t i n g of the s p e c i e s s h o u l d be c o n c e n t r a t e d w i t h i n t h i s r e g i o n . S i n c e the mid 1960's, s u b s t a n t i a l premiums i n r e a l terms have d e v e l o p e d f o r No.1 and No.2 S i t k a spruce l o g s . T h i s has been accompanied by a steady i n c r e a s e i n the t o t a l annual volume of S i t k a spruce cut and the volume of l o g s e x p o r t e d t o Japan. T h i s i n c r e a s e d demand f o r softwood l o g s i n Japan has p r o v i d e d the r e a l f i n a n c i a l i n c e n t i v e f o r p r o d u c t i o n of the sawlogs and i n t e n s i f i c a t i o n of f o r e s t management. I t i s l i k e l y t h a t premiums f o r t o p q u a l i t y S i t k a spruce l o g s w i l l p e r s i s t i n the f o r s e e a b l e f u t u r e p a r t i c u l a r l y i f the p r e s e n t l o g e x p o r t r e s t r i c t i o n s are r e v i s e d . 222 A management s t r a t e g y f o r S i t k a spruce has been o u t l i n e d (see 8:2:6). The q u e s t i o n a r o s e where w i l l t he f i n a n c e come from t o implement i n t e n s i v e f o r e s t management ? T h i s c h a p t e r has a t t e m p t e d t o p o i n t out t h a t the s u r p l u s revenue a c c r u i n g t o t o p q u a l i t y l o g s c o u l d be c a p t u r e d by r e v i s i o n of the p r e s e n t l o g e x p o r t r e s t r i c t i o n s , and t h i s i n c r e a s e d government revenue c o u l d be d i r e c t e d t o f i n a n c e the f o r e s t management s t r a t e g y o u t l i n e d f o r the s p e c i e s . The i n t r o d u c t i o n of a p r o g r e s s i v e t i m b e r t a x on l o g e x p o r t s would be i n the "best economic i n t e r e s t of the p r o v i n c e " and would h e l p p r o v i d e the r e a l f i n a n c i a l i n c e n t i v e f o r growing t i m b e r i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h C olumbia. Economic l o g i c may i n d i c a t e t h a t r e v i s i o n s i n p r e s e n t l o g e x p o r t p o l i c y i n B r i t i s h Columbia would be " i n the best economic i n t e r e s t of the p r o v i n c e " , however, i t i s c e r t a i n t h a t the I n t e r n a t i o n a l Woodworkers of A m e r i c a , the l a r g e s t f o r e s t w orker's union i n B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a , would s t r e n u o u s l y oppose any such r e v i s i o n s on the grounds " l o g e x p o r t s a re j o b e x p o r t s " . G i v e n the p o l i t i c a l i n f l u e n c e of the I n t e r n a t i o n a l Woodworkers of America i n B r i t i s h Columbia i t i s h i g h l y u n l i k e l y t h a t , w i t h o u t t h e i r s u p p o r t , such r e v i s i o n s would be i n i t i a t e d by any P r o v i n c i a l Goverment. 223 CHAPTER ELEVEN. Summary, c o n c l u s i o n s and recommendations. 11:1 I n t r o d u c t i o n . T h i s t h e s i s has been concerned w i t h s i x major f a c t o r s which i n f l u e n c e the i n t e n s i t y of management of S i t k a spruce n a t u r a l l y r e g e n e r a t e d s t a n d s and p l a n t a t i o n s i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia. The o b j e c t i v e of t h i s c h a p t e r i s t o s y n t h e s i s the f i n d i n g s and c o n c l u s i o n s of the p r e v i o u s c h a p t e r s , and make recommendations f o r f u r t h e r study on S i t k a spruce i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a . 11:2 D i s t r i b u t i o n and e c o l o g y . In c h a p t e r two the major e n v i r o n m e n t a l and c l i m a t i c f a c t o r s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h the n a t u r a l range of S i t k a spruce were summarized. The o c c u r r e n c e of pure n a t u r a l S i t k a spruce s t a n d s a l o n g the western s h o r e l i n e s i n B r i t i s h Columbia has been a t t r i b u t e d t o the h i g h t o l e r a n c e of the s p e c i e s f o r ocean s p r a y . Throughout the m a j o r i t y of i t s n a t u r a l range S i t k a s pruce o c c u r s i n mixed b r o a d l e a f and c o n i f e r s t a n d s . 224 A d i s t i n c t i o n must be made between the n a t u r a l range of S i t k a spruce and the range w i t h i n which the s p e c i e s can be e c o n o m i c a l l y managed. T h i s a r i s e s p r i m a r i l y from l a c k of e f f e c t i v e c o n t r o l of the w h i t e p i n e w e e v i l . The d e t r i m e n t a l impact of the whi t e p i n e w e e v i l on S i t k a spruce (see 11:3) i s w e l l known i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia and i n the P a c i f i c N o r thwest, however, B r i t i s h and I r i s h f o r e s t e r s a r e unaware of the importance of the w h i t e p i n e w e e v i l and, t h e r e f o r e , do not d i s t i n g u i s h the n a t u r a l range of S i t k a spruce from i t s economic range. E c o l o g i c a l c l a s s i f i c a t i o n of f o r e s t ecosystems i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia has p r o v i d e d a sound e c o l o g i c a l b a s i s f o r i n t e n s i v e f o r e s t management of a l l s p e c i e s , i n c l u d i n g S i t k a s p r u c e . The " n o r t h c o a s t cedar hemlock (NCCH) zone" proposed by the M i n i s t r y of F o r e s t s w i l l be the main b i o g e o c l i m a t i c zone w i t h i n which S i t k a spruce w i l l be managed, and emphasis on the e c o l o g y and management of S i t k a spruce i n t h i s zone i s es s e n t i a l . E d a t o p i c g r i d s f o r S i t k a s pruce were p r e s e n t e d and how these have been used as an e c o l o g i c a l framework f o r t r e e s p e c i e s s e l e c t i o n and b r o a d c a s t b u r n i n g i n the Vancouver F o r e s t R e g i o n . T h i s e c o l o g i c a l framework can p r o v i d e a f o u n d a t i o n f o r d e t a i l e d s i t e s p e c i f i c i n t e n s i v e f o r e s t management g u i d e l i n e s f o r S i t k a spruce and o t h e r s p e c i e s i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h C olumbia. 225 11:3 Impact of w h i t e p i n e w e e v i l on S i t k a s p r u c e . Damage caused by the w h i t e p i n e w e e v i l i n young p l a n t a t i o n s o f t e n l e a d s t o e x c l u s i o n of S i t k a s pruce from the s t a n d s . The main management i m p l i c a t i o n s a r e t h a t the s p e c i e s i s a v o i d e d i n r e f o r e s t a t i o n programs throughout much of the n a t u r a l range of the s p e c i e s i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia, p o t e n t i a l y i e l d s a r e reduced and management i s c o n f i n e d t o a r e a s u n a f f e c t e d by the w h i t e p i n e w e e v i l . McMullen (1976) used "accumulated h e a t " t o d e l i n e a t e low w e e v i l h a z a r d a r e a s on Vancouver I s l a n d , but i n g e n e r a l the s p e c i e s i s not used e x t e n s i v e l y i n the Vancouver F o r e s t R e g i o n . C h e m i c a l , b i o l o g i c a l , g e n e t i c , s i l v i c u l t u r a l and i n t e g r a t e d methods of w e e v i l c o n t r o l were r e v i e w e d , and the l a t t e r two methods have shown most promise and s h o u l d be f u r t h e r i n v e s t i g a t e d . A commitment t o c o n t r o l t h i s p e s t i s a p r e r e q u i s i t e t o any s e r i o u s attempt t o c o n t r o l t h i s major l i m i t i n g f a c t o r t o management of t h i s i m p o r t a n t s p e c i e s . Without a commitment t o c o n t r o l t h i s i n s e c t p e s t , an i m p o r t a n t component of the c o n i f e r gene p o o l i n the Vancouver F o r e s t Region i s s e r i o u s l y t h r e a t e n e d . 226 11:4 Management of S i t k a s p r u c e . Chapter f i v e p r e s e n t e d the r e s u l t s of a q u e s t i o n n a i r e on the management p r a c t i c e s c u r r e n t l y used f o r S i t k a spruce on p r i v a t e l y managed f o r e s t l a n d s i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia. K l i n k a ' s g u i d e , o l d growth i n d i c a t o r s and l o c a l e x p e r i e n c e were the main methods of t r e e s p e c i e s s e l e c t i o n used, w i t h the former i n c r e a s i n g i n i m p o r t a n c e . L i t t l e , i f any, s i t e p r e p a r a t i o n i s commonly used on c u t - o v e r spruce-hemlock s i t e s i n the p r o v i n c e . The m a j o r i t y of the average annual p l a n t i n g S i t k a spruce program of f o u r m i l l i o n s e e d l i n g s a r e 2+0 b a r e r o o t , w i t h a heavy r e l i a n c e on n a t u r a l r e g e n e r a t i o n on the Queen C h a r l o t t e I s l a n d s . S u r v i v a l of p l a n t e d S i t k a spruce i s g e n e r a l l y e x c e l l e n t , however, p l a n t a t i o n performance has been i n g e n e r a l poor, p a r t i c u l a r l y on Vancouver I s l a n d . T h i s poor performance i s o f t e n a s s o c i a t e d w i t h s e v e r e c h l o r o s i s , and sometimes poor s p e c i e s s e l e c t i o n and s i t e p r e p a r a t i o n . I t s h o u l d be noted t h a t on northwest Vancouver I s l a n d and on the Queen C h a r l o t t e I s l a n d s S i t k a spruce p l a n t a t i o n s a r e p e r f o r m i n g e x t r e m e l y w e l l . J u v e n i l e s p a c i n g of n a t u r a l l y r e g e n e r a t e d S i t k a spruce stands i s becoming more common on the Queen C h a r l o t t e I s l a n d s , w i t h p r e f e r e n c e u s u a l l y g i v e n t o S i t k a s p r u c e . F e r t i l i z a t i o n of S i t k a spruce has s t a r t e d r e c e n t l y , and the p r o f i t a b i l i t y of both f e r t i l i z a t i o n and j u v e n i l e s p a c i n g of young v i g o r o u s S i t k a 227 spruce n a t u r a l l y r e g e n e r a t e d s t a n d s and p l a n t a t i o n s s h o u l d be s e r i o u s l y i n v e s t i g a t e d . I t i s u n l i k e l y t h a t commercial t h i n n i n g of S i t k a spruce s t a n d s w i l l become common p r a c t i c e i n the f o r e s e e a b l e f u t u r e . P r o d u c t i v i t y e s t i m a t e s r a n g i n g from 4.1 t o 21.7 m 3/(ha.a) f o r S i t k a spruce on p r i v a t e l y managed f o r e s t l a n d s i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia s u g g e s t s t h a t the s p e c i e s has tremendous volume p r o d u c i n g p o t e n t i a l , which i n t e n s i v e f o r e s t management must d e v e l o p . F o r e s t management of S i t k a spruce has o n l y j u s t begun i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia and s h o u l d be expanded i f the s p e c i e s i s t o make i t s f u l l c o n t r i b u t i o n t o the f o r e s t economy. P r e f e r e n c e s h o u l d be g i v e n t o management of the s p e c i e s i n the P r i n c e Rupert F o r e s t Region where the s p e c i e s e x h i b i t s i t s maximum p o t e n t i a l f o r management and i s f r e e from the t h r e a t of the w h i t e p i n e w e e v i l . A management s t r a t e g y d e s i g n e d t o maximize volume and v a l u e of i n d i v i d u a l t r e e s t h r o u g h wide s p a c i n g and c o n t r o l of s t o c k i n g and s t a n d d e n s i t y has been p r e s e n t e d (see 8:2:6), as p r a c t i c a l w i t h i n the c o n t e x t of a p r e d i c t e d " f a l l d o w n " i n the p r o v i n c i a l annual a l l o w a b l e c u t . Given t h a t B r i t i s h and I r i s h f o r e s t e r s have tremendous e x p e r i e n c e i n the e s t a b l i s h m e n t and i n t e n s i v e management of S i t k a spruce p l a n t a t i o n s the e v o l u t i o n of i n t e n s i v e f o r e s t management p r e s c r i p t i o n s f o r S i t k a spruce i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h 228 Columbia s h o u l d be guided by e x p e r i e n c e w i t h the s p e c i e s i n G r eat B r i t a i n and I r e l a n d . 11:5 G e n e t i c improvement of S i t k a s p r u c e . Chapter s i x c o n c e n t r a t e d on a b r i e f r e view of domestic and i n t e r n a t i o n a l programs d e s i g n e d t o improve the g e n e t i c q u a l i t y of S i t k a s p r u c e . U n l e s s the p l a n t i n g s t o c k has the d e s i r e d g e n e t i c p o t e n t i a l no amount of i n t e n s i v e f o r e s t management can maximize the volume p r o d u c i n g p o t e n t i a l of the s p e c i e s . G e n e t i c improvement of S i t k a spruce has g r e a t l y expanded i n the p a s t decade p r i m a r i l y because of the r e c o g n i t i o n by f o r e s t g e n e t i c i s t s of the p o t e n t i a l f o r improvement of t h i s e x c e p t i o n a l s p e c i e s . In c o a s t a l B r i t i s h C o lumbia, Falkenhagen's r e s e a r c h has l e d t o d e l i n e a t i o n of d i s t i n c t b i o l o g i c a l zones f o r S i t k a s p ruce w i t h i n i t s n a t u r a l range, and h i s s t u d i e s on j u v e n i l e growth of S i t k a spruce p r o g e n i e s i n d i c a t e d t h a t s e l e c t i o n a t the provenance and i n d i v i d u a l t r e e l e v e l s were a p p r o p r i a t e f i r s t s t e p s i n a g e n e t i c improvement program f o r S i t k a s p r u c e . Two phases of the t h r e e phase I n t e r n a t i o n a l Union of F o r e s t Research O r g a n i z a t i o n s I n t e r n a t i o n a l Ten provenance experiment of S i t k a spruce have been completed and have a l r e a d y 229 l e d t o r e a p p r a i s a l of some areas from which seed has been t r a d i t i o n a l l y o b t a i n e d . T h i s has h e l p e d d e f i n e more s p e c i f i c c o l l e c t i o n a r e a s and zones i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia. U n f o r t u n a t e l y the h i g h e s t y i e l d i n g S i t k a spruce provenances occur i n the Vancouver F o r e s t Region and i n the P a c i f i c Northwest s t a t e s of Oregon and Washington, a r e a s where the w h i t e p i n e w e e v i l damage i s g r e a t e s t . Gene c o n s e r v a t i o n i s u r g e n t l y r e q u i r e d t o p r e s e r v e the gene p o o l of S i t k a spruce i n the Vancouver F o r e s t Region. P r o t e c t i o n of the S i t k a spruce provenance t r i a l s w i t h i n the Vancouver F o r e s t Region i s a l s o n e c e s s a r y i f severe w h i t e p i n e w e e v i l damage i s t o be a v o i d e d . S e v e r a l s m a l l s c a l e progeny,, provenance, and f a m i l y t r i a l s w i t h S i t k a spruce have been e s t a b l i s h e d , but as y e t no d e t a i l e d s y n t h e s i s of t h e i r r e s p e c t i v e v a l u e has been p u b l i s h e d . The S i t k a s p r u c e c l o n a l seed o r c h a r d on the S a a n i c h P e n i n s u l a i s the f i r s t of i t s k i n d f o r S i t k a s p r u c e , and w i l l soon be p r o d u c i n g seed of guaranteed q u a l i t y f o r o p e r a t i o n a l use. 11:6 V a r i a b i l i t y of S i t k a s p r u c e . A b r i e f l i t e r a t u r e review of s e l e c t e d r e f e r e n c e s on the growth and y i e l d of S i t k a spruce i n Western N o r t h America 230 and Western Europe was p r e s e n t e d i n c h a p t e r seven. A main d i f f e r e n c e i n s i t e c l a s s i f i c a t i o n was the use of mean h e i g h t of dominant and codominant i n Western N o r t h America compared t o t o p h e i g h t i n Gr e a t B r i t a i n and I r e l a n d . N a t u r a l s t a n d y i e l d t a b l e s a r e most common i n Western N o r t h America because n a t u r a l stands p redominate, w h i l e i n Great B r i t a i n and I r e l a n d managed s t a n d y i e l d t a b l e s predominate i n response to the major emphasis on p l a n t a t i o n f o r e s t r y . G i v e n the b a s i c l a c k of q u a n t i t a t i v e a n a l y s i s of how n a t u r a l l y r e g e n e r a t e d s t a n d s and p l a n t a t i o n s of S i t k a spruce grow i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia e s t i m a t e s of the v a r i a b i l i t y , a p r a c t i c a l method of a s s e s s i n g young p l a n t a t i o n performance and growth models of the s p e c i e s were i d e n t i f i e d as a r e a s i n need of r e s e a r c h t o f i l l a gap i n b a s i c knowledge. The v a r i a t i o n w i t h i n young S i t k a spruce p l a n t a t i o n s , DATA GROUP I , and n a t u r a l stands c o n t a i n i n g S i t k a s p r u c e , DATA GROUP I I , were p r e s e n t e d i n c h a p t e r e i g h t a n a l y s i s p a r t one. The p l a n t a t i o n r e s u l t s s t r o n g l y suggest t h a t the s p e c i e s o f f e r s g r e a t promise f o r r a p i d s t a n d e s t a b l i s h m e n t on s u i t a b l e w h i t e p i n e w e e v i l f r e e s i t e s . The n a t u r a l s t a n d r e s u l t s suggest t h a t S i t k a s p r u c e has e x c e p t i o n a l volume and va l u e . p r o d u c i n g p o t e n t i a l , but i s u n d e r u t i l i z e d i n comparison w i t h the e x o t i c S i t k a spruce p l a n t a t i o n s of Great B r i t a i n and I r e l a n d . In g e n e r a l p l a n t a t i o n s i n Great B r i t a i n and I r e l a n d outproduce n a t u r a l s t a n d s i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia p r i m a r i l y because of 231 the h i g h e r i n t e n s i t y of f o r e s t management p r a c t i c e d i n Europe. Y i e l d s from n a t u r a l stands can be s u b s t a n t i a l l y improved t h r o u g h c o n t r o l of s t o c k i n g and s t a n d d e n s i t y as advocated by Smith (1973). The c o r r e l a t i o n a n a l y s i s , p r e s e n t e d i n the l a t t e r p a r t of c h a p t e r e i g h t , q u a n t i f i e s the r e l a t i o n s h i p between i n d i v i d u a l t r e e and s t a n d parameters f o r DATA GROUP I and DATA GROUP I I . T h i s p r o v i d e s some i n i t i a l q u a n t i t a t i v e i n s i g h t i n t o p o t e n t i a l l y i m p o r t a n t v a r i a b l e s which may be used i n i n d i v i d u a l t r e e and st a n d model b u i l d i n g . Chapter n i n e p r o v i d e s a s i m p l e , o b j e c t i v e q u a n t i t a t i v e P r o b a b i l i t y Assessment System (PAS) f o r young S i t k a spruce p l a n t a t i o n s i n the Vancouver F o r e s t R e g i o n . A t r a n s f o r m e d f u l l l o g a r i t h m i c model was s e l e c t e d as the best i n t e r p r e t i v e m a t h e m a t i c a l model which then p r o v i d e d the b a s i s f o r the system. S e v e r a l p r a c t i c a l and t h e o r e t i c a l l i m i t a t i o n s of PAS were p o i n t e d o u t , however, the p r i n c i p l e u n d e r l y i n g t h i s system may have wide a p p l i c a b i l i t y i n f o r e s t r y and o t h e r d i s c i p l i n e s . The p r e l i m i n a r y development of the proposed system i s s t r a i g h t f o r w a r d , and s h o u l d be q u i c k and i n e x p e n s i v e t o a p p l y i n the f o r e s t . However, f u r t h e r development and t e s t i n g a r e recommended b e f o r e the P r o b a b i l i t y Assessment System c o u l d be used o p e r a t i o n a l l y . 232 11:7 Economic r o l e of S i t k a s p r u c e . Chapter ten e s t a b l i s h e d the economic r o l e of S i t k a s pruce i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia and e l a b o r a t e d on the economic i m p l i c a t i o n s of l o g e x p o r t p o l i c y on the management of S i t k a s p r u c e . S i n c e 1960, the average a n n u a l p r o v i n c i a l S i t k a s p ruce h a r v e s t has been r o u g h l y 1,000,000 m3 of which a p p r o x i m a t e l y two t h i r d s o r i g i n a t e s i n the P r i n c e Rupert F o r e s t Region. R e a l premiums f o r top q u a l i t y S i t k a spruce l o g s have deve l o p e d s i n c e 1970 p r i m a r i l y i n response t o the v e r y keen c o m p e t i t i o n f o r softwood l o g s by Japanese l o g b r o k e r s . I t i s l i k e l y t h a t premiums f o r S i t k a s p ruce w i l l c o n t i n u e i n the f o r e s e e a b l e f u t u r e , e s p e c i a l l y i f c u r r e n t l o g e x p o r t p o l i c y i s r e v i s e d as suggested by Pearse (1976), D a v i e s (1976) and Haley (1978). W h i l e the volume of S i t k a spruce l o g e x p o r t s from B r i t i s h Columbia t o Japan has i n c r e a s e d s t e a d i l y w i t h i n the p a s t decade, the t o t a l volume of l o g s e x p o r t e d ' r e p r e s e n t s l e s s than two p e r c e n t of the t o t a l a n n u a l p r o v i n c i a l h a r v e s t . T h i s i s v e r y low i n comparison t o the annual p e r c e n t a g e of t o t a l h a r v e s t e x p o r t e d from s t a t e and p r i v a t e f o r e s t l a n d s i n the P a c i f i c N o rthwest, and i n comparison t o the "huge and s t e a d i l y 233 i n c r e a s i n g " l o g e x p o r t market i n Japan. The s u r p l u s revenue a c c r u i n g t o top q u a l i t y l o g s on the e x p o r t market has p r o v i d e d the r e a l f i n a n c i a l i n c e n t i v e f o r i n t e n s i v e f o r e s t management i n the P a c i f i c Northwest. A tremendous market and a s s o c i a t e d w i n d f a l l g a i n s await the l o g p r o d u c i n g s e c t o r i n B r i t i s h Columbia upon r e v i s i o n of the p r e s e n t l o g e x p o r t p o l i c y . I t has been c o n v i n c i n g l y argued t h a t i t would be i n "the be s t economic i n t e r e s t of the p r o v i n c e " t o r e v i s e the p r e s e n t r e s t r i c t i v e l o g e x p o r t p o l i c y and i n t r o d u c e a p r o g r e s s i v e timber t a x , the i n c r e a s e d government revenue from which c o u l d be d i r e c t e d t o f i n a n c e i n t e n s i v e f o r e s t management of S i t k a s p r u c e and o t h e r s p e c i e s i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia. 11:8 Recommendations f o r f u r t h e r r e s e a r c h . The f o l l o w i n g a r e the recommendations f o r f u r t h e r r e s e a r c h and a n a l y s i s r e s u l t i n g from t h i s work: 1. S p e c i f i c management g u i d e l i n e s s h o u l d be devel o p e d f o r S i t k a spruce i n t h e proposed " n o r t h c o a s t cedar hemlock (NCCH)" b i o g e o c l i m a t i c zone. 2. The e c o l o g i c a l framework p r o v i d e d by e d a t o p i c g r i d s s h o u l d be extended t o i n c l u d e o t h e r management p r a c t i c e s such as j u v e n i l e s p a c i n g , 234 f e r t i l i z a t i o n , l o g g i n g e t c . 3. I n t e g r a t e d and s i l v i c u l t u r a l methods of c o n t r o l of the w h i t e p i n e w e e v i l a re u r g e n t l y r e q u i r e d t o f a c i l i t a t e management of S i t k a spruce throughout i t s e n t i r e n a t u r a l range. 4 I n v e s t i g a t i o n i n t o the poor performance of S i t k a spruce p l a n t a t i o n s i n the Vancouver F o r e s t Region s h o u l d be undertaken and i n c l u d e the impact of s i t e p r e p a r a t i o n , t r e e s p e c i e s s e l e c t i o n , f o l i a r n u t r i e n t s t a t u s and p r o f i t a b i l i t y of these s t a n d s . 5. The p r o f i t a b i l i t y and q u a n t i t a t i v e response of S i t k a spruce n a t u r a l l y r e g e n e r a t e d s t a n d s and p l a n t a t i o n s t o j u v e n i l e s p a c i n g and f e r t i l i z a t i o n s h o u l d be e v a l u a t e d and management p r e s c r i p t i o n s f o r m u l a t e d . 6. A s y n t h e s i s of the S i t k a spruce progeny, provenance and f a m i l y t r i a l s s h o u l d be made to e v a l u a t e the impact of the s e t r i a l s on the g e n e t i c improvement of the s p e c i e s . 7. P r o t e c t i o n of e s t a b l i s h e d S i t k a spruce provenance t r i a l s and r e c o g n i z e d s u p e r i o r h i g h y i e l d i n g provenances i n h i g h w h i t e p i n e w e e v i l h a z a r d 235 a r e a s s h o u l d be a h i g h p r i o r i t y i f w h i t e p i n e w e e v i l damage i s t o be a v o i d e d . 8. The p r i n c i p l e u n d e r l y i n g P r o b a b i l i t y Assessment System may be expanded t o i n c l u d e o t h e r i n d i v i d u a l t r e e and s t a n d v a r i a b l e s which can be q u i c k l y , i n e x p e n s i v e l y and a c c u r a t e l y d e t e r m i n e d i n the f o r e s t . 9. The f i n a n c i a l i m p l i c a t i o n s f o r i n t e n s i v e f o r e s t management of i n c r e a s e d government revenue, r e s u l t i n g from r e v i s i o n of c u r r e n t l o g e x p o r t p o l i c y , s h o u l d be a n a l y s e d . I f implemented, methods s h o u l d be f o r m u l a t e d t o ensure t h a t the i n c r e a s e d goverment revenue be d i r e c t e d t o the l o g p r o d u c i n g s e c t o r t o h e l p f i n a n c e i n t e n s i v e f o r e s t management of S i t k a spruce and o t h e r h i g h y i e l d i n g s p e c i e s i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h C olumbia. 236 REFERENCES CITED. Adams, T. C. 1974. 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