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Forest plantation management strategies for economic development of Uganda Moyini, Yakobo Z. G. 1978

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FOREST PLANTATION MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES  FOR  ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF UGANDA by  YAKOBO Z.G. MOYINI B.Sc. F o r e s t r y (Hons.), M a k e r e r e U n i v e r s i t y , 1973 M.F.S., W a s h i n g t o n S t a t e U n i v e r s i t y , 1 9 7 4  A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE. REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY IN THE FACULTY OF GRADUATE STUDIES (THE  We  accept to  FACULTY OF FORESTRY)  this  thesis  the required  as  conforming  standard  THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA (c)  Yakobo Z.G. M o y i n i  In  presenting  this  an a d v a n c e d  degree  the  shall  I  Library  f u r t h e r agree  for  scholarly  by h i s of  this  written  at make  that  thesis  freely  may It  is  University  British  AUGUST 9, 1 9 7 8 .  British  by  for  gain  Columbia  shall  the  that  not  requirements  Columbia,  I  agree  r e f e r e n c e and copying  t h e Head o f  understood  FORESTRY  of  of  for extensive  permission.  of  fulfilment of  available  be g r a n t e d  financial  2075 Wesbrook P l a c e Vancouver, Canada V 6 T 1W5  Date  it  permission  purposes  for  in p a r t i a l  the U n i v e r s i t y  representatives.  Department  The  thesis  of  or  that  study.  this  thesis  my D e p a r t m e n t  copying  for  or  publication  be a l l o w e d w i t h o u t  my  ABSTRACT  Supervisor:  The  National  T h e r e has  terioration  i n the  instability  and  payments. less  J..H.G. S m i t h  p a c e o f e c o n o m i c d e v e l o p m e n t i n Uganda  been slow. enough.  Professor  o u t p u t has  not  terms of  a serious  Employment and  trade,  elements of  s t r e s s i n the rural  A possible  these problems i n v o l v e s  utilization  of natural  A sector  resources,  review of  the  past  balance  strategy  of  for  a more r a t i o n a l  o f w h i c h the  indicated that  performance of  i t s contribution minimal,  2.1%.  p l o y m e n t i n f o r e s t management was imports of  than exports.  the  to the  forestry  On  contributing  the  other  ranking 10%  of  small  Gross  and  em-  unstable faster  hand, f o r e s t i n d u s t r i e s were  second to the  the  forestry  Furthermore,  f o r e s t p r o d u c t s have i n c r e a s e d  labour-intensive, and  export  one.  D o m e s t i c P r o d u c t was  and  de-  d e v e l o p m e n t have b e e n  alleviating  is  fast  been evidence of a long-term  than s a t i s f a c t o r y .  sector  increased  has  total  textile  industry  employment i n manu-  facturing . The  lack of  production  a sound f o r e s t p o l i c y and  g o a l was  identified  as  a quantifiable  a possible  cause of  the  -iiipoor performance.  F o r e s t r y was  a handmaid to a g r i c u l t u r e and e s t a t e was  r e l e g a t e d to the p o s i t i o n of  the s i z e of the n a t i o n a l f o r e s t  l i m i t e d to a minimum of 8% of the t o t a l land  of the c o u n t r y .  area  I f the f o r e s t r y s e c t o r i s to c o n t r i b u t e  sub-  s t a n t i a l l y to economic development, i t must be w e l l planned. To achieve t h i s the i d e n t i f i c a t i o n of optimum management models f o r f o r e s t lands By the year 2000 A.D. 3 in million M charcoal,  s l e e p e r s and metric  i s necessary.  maximum consumption requirements  were estimated to be  2.89  46.85 f o r fuelwood  f o r p o l e s and p o s t s ,  0.15  and  0.25  million  paperboard.  Based on roundwood supply of management and  projections at current levels  timber p r i c e s , the f o r e s t resource  o f Uganda  w i l l be unable to meet the a n t i c i p a t e d demand by the 2000.  Increased  timber s c a r c i t y .  studies i n d i c a t e that species (CH.  In a d d i t i o n ,  strategy  preliminary  such as Cyanometra a l e x a n d r i i  Wright) o f f e r r e a l promise i n the export s e c t o r  should,  t h e r e f o r e , be processed.  sustained production and  year  u t i l i z a t i o n of the lesser-known s p e c i e s i n  the t r o p i c a l high f o r e s t s i s a f e a s i b l e medium-term f o r avoiding  and  1.0 3 f o r sawnwood and  f o r wood-based panels;  tons f o r paper and  product-oriented  and  However, f o r a much more  w i t h attendant improvements i n q u a l i t y  y i e l d per h e c t a r e ,  a g r e a t e r e f f o r t towards f o r e s t  p l a n t a t i o n s i s advocated. Five product-oriented Cham and  softwood  (Pinus p a t u l a  Schl.  P. c a r i b a e a M o r e l e t v a r . hondurensis) management  models were forumulated and  tested for e f f i c i e n c y .  Two  of  - i v -  the models had c l o s e spacing  (2200 stems/ha) w i t h a l i g h t  (IA) and a heavy (IB) t h i n n i n g . spacing  Model IC had i n t e r m e d i a t e  (1800 stems/ha) with two heavy t h i n n i n g s ; ID with  wide spacing  (900 stems/ha) and a heavy t h i n n i n g ; and I E ,  the c u r r e n t management regime, has a spacing  (1370 stems/ha) w i t h three t h i n n i n g s .  s i m u l a t i o n model developed Institute  (Oxford)  management models. grandis  wide/intermediate The  "VYTL"  a t the Commonwealth F o r e s t r y  was used to produce y i e l d t a b l e s f o r the The models a p p r o p r i a t e f o r Eucalyptus  ( H i l l ) Maiden had a l r e a d y been adequately  analysed  elsewhere. In terms o f e f f i c i e n c y , model IC had the h i g h e s t mean 3 annual increment (29.4 M /ha/year a t age 20) and ID a t t a i n e d a mean dbh o f 20 cm e a r l i e s t , a t age 11. formula  Using the Faustmann  and assuming a constant timber p r i c e  (models IA, IB  and IC) and a s i z e - r e s p o n s i v e revenue f u n c t i o n (models ID and I E ) , the optimum  r o t a t i o n s i n years were 17 f o r IA, 19 f o r IB,  22 f o r IC, 27 f o r ID and 29 f o r I E . S u b s t a n t i a l economies i n the use of land can be by adopting  the a p p r o p r i a t e management s t r a t e g i e s .  achieved Model IA  was b e s t s u i t e d f o r pulpwood p r o d u c t i o n and IE f o r veneer and saw l o g s .  F o r an i n t e g r a t e d pulpwood/veneer and saw l o g p r o -  d u c t i o n , model IA was most s u i t e d i f g r e a t e r emphasis was on pulpwood and IC i f the emphasis was on veneer and saw l o g s . Based on the revenue assumptions f o r the d e t e r m i n a t i o n of r o t a t i o n l e n g t h , model IE had the l a r g e s t amount o f present net worth (U.shs 3374/ha a t 6% d i s c o u n t rate) and ID, the h i g h e s t i n t e r n a l r a t e of r e t u r n (10.50 p e r c e n t ) .  When e i t h e r  -vthe  amount of i n i t i a l c a p i t a l o u t l a y , or t o t a l c o s t com-  pounded to r o t a t i o n age r e q u i r e d to produce a u n i t volume of was  wood was  used to measure c o s t - e f f e c t i v e n e s s , model IE  the most e f f i c i e n t . Taking i n t o account a l l these e f f i c i e n c y rankings, model  IE  was  s e l e c t e d as the optimum p r o d u c t - o r i e n t e d management  s t r a t e g y f o r veneer and saw l o g p r o d u c t i o n , IA f o r pulpwood and IC f o r an i n t e g r a t e d pulpwood/veneer  and saw l o g p r o -  duction . Having i d e n t i f i e d the optimum management s t r a t e g i e s , t h e i r i m p l i c a t i o n s f o r economic  development  i n terms o f  f o r e i g n exchange e a r n i n g s , investment requirements, ployment and r u r a l development  were a s s e s s e d .  The  emgreatest  o p p o r t u n i t i e s f o r f o r e i g n exchange e a r n i n g s were i n importand p r o d u c t - s u b s t i t u t i o n .  The economic  v a l u e s of s u b s t i t u -  t i o n l o c a l l y produced softwood sawnwood f o r prime grade hardwoods on the domestic market and f o r imports of softwood 3 sawnwood were e s t i m a t e d to be U.shs 1400 and 727 per M respectively. D i r e c t o r s e e d l i n g c r e d i t schemes f o r e u c a l y p t woodlot farms were recommended and w i l l r e q u i r e a maximum investment of  U.shs 1461 m i l l i o n and employ 183 thousand persons per  annum.  For softwood p l a n t a t i o n s , a maximum investment o f  U.shs 213 m i l l i o n and employing 62,000 persons a n n u a l l y w i l l be  needed. Due  to the e x i s t e n c e of an a r t i f i c i a l  a two-pronged management was  s u r p l u s of land,  s t r a t e g y o f f o r e s t a r e a expansion and c o n s i d e r e d o p t i m a l f o r Uganda.  intensive  I t was  -vi-  estimated t h a t through adoption of the optimum i n t e n s i v e management models, the s i z e of the n a t i o n a l f o r e s t e s t a t e should  be  increased  from the c u r r e n t 8% to about 17%  t o t a l land area of the country to a v o i d  future  of  the  timber  scarcity. To l e s s e n the d i s p a r i t i e s i n the standard among r e g i o n s , economically  of  i n d u s t r i a l p l a n t a t i o n s should be  depressed areas.  living  located i n  A land a v a i l a b i l i t y  index,  expressed as a f u n c t i o n of r e g i o n a l r a t e o f land  utilization,  carrying capacity, actual population  real  c a p i t a income was  d e n s i t y and  per  used to determine p o t e n t i a l s i t e s f o r  establishing plantations.  Those d i s t r i c t s w i t h  land  a v a i l a b i l i t y i n d i c e s below the n a t i o n a l average were cons i d e r e d economically Acholi  depressed.  They were Madi, West N i l e ,  (East and West), Lango, Mubende and Bunyoro, i n a  decreasing  order of s e v e r i t y .  The  l a s t four o f f e r g r e a t e s t  promise f o r p l a n t a t i o n f o r e s t r y . Finally, study should  the management s t r a t e g i e s i d e n t i f i e d i n t h i s provide  b e n e f i t analyses  the main b a s i s f o r sound s o c i a l  of f o r e s t r y p r o j e c t s .  I t i s hoped  costthe  p r o j e c t s w i l l subsequently be adopted i n the next development p l a n of Uganda.  -vii-  TABLE OF CONTENTS page ABSTRACT  i i  TABLE OF CONTENTS  v i i  LIST OF TABLES  x  LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS  xv  LIST OF APPENDICES  xvii  GLOSSARY  xviii  ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS  xvi  DEDICATION  xxi  1.0 0  INTRODUCTION 1.10 1.20 1.30 1.40  2.00  3.00  1  Background Information Problem D e f i n i t i o n O b j e c t i v e s o f the Study 1.31 Primary O b j e c t i v e s 1.32 S u b - o b j e c t i v e s Methodology ...  '.  ...  1 2 8 8 8 9  A REVIEW OF DEVELOPMENT TRENDS IN UGANDA..  11  2.10 2.20 2.3 0  11 24 34  The O v e r a l l Economy The F o r e s t r y Sector Summary  ...  FORECAST OF FUTURE CONSUMPTION OF FOREST PRODUCTS 3.10 3.20  Introduction F o r e c a s t i n g Techniques 3.21 Methodologies 3.22 E s t i m a t i o n of F u t u r e „ „ Values of Independent Variables Future Consumption of F o r e s t Products 3.31 Fuelwood and Charcoal 3.32 Poles and Posts 3.33 Sawnwood and S l e e p e r s 3.34 Wood-Based Panels 3.35 Paper and Paperboard Summary  ...  37 37 41 41  r  3.3 0  3.40  44 49 49 57 62 69 75 85  -viii-  4.00  THE FOREST RESOURCE  88  4.10 4.20 4.30  88 96  4.40  Land Use i n Uganda S i z e o f the F o r e s t E s t a t e ... The Growing Stock and Roundwood Supply t Summary  CHAPTER 5.00  NOTES •  5.20  J u s t i f i c a t i o n f o r Intensive Management I n t e n s i v e Management and F o r e s t r y 521 522  140 151 151  5.221 5.222  163  5.224 5.30  140  I n t e n s i v e Management Defined I n t e n s i v e Management i n P l a n t a t i o n F o r e s t r y ... .  5.22 3  6.00  139  INTENSIVE MANAGEMENT IN FOREST PLANTATIONS 5.10  121 133  Formulation Models  Introduction Stand E s t a b l i s h m e n t Phase Stand Development  163  165  ••• ••« • 174 Other C u l t u r a l T r e a t 190 ments o f I n t e n s i v e Management 199 PhclSG  CHAPTER NOTES...:'-  204  DETERMINATION OF OPTIMUM ROTATION LENGTH (S)  206  6.10 6.20  6.30 6.40 6.50  Introduction F a c t o r s A f f e c t i n g R o t a t i o n Length 6.21 F o r e s t Ownership 6.22 I n t e r e s t (Discount) r a t e ... 6.23 Land, Labour and C a p i t a l ... 6.24 Risk and U n c e r t a i n t y Rotation C r i t e r i a R e s u l t s and Choice o f C r i t e r i o n (Criteria) Summary  CHAPTER NOTES  206 209 219 213 219 228 2 31 239 247 249  -:±X-  P ? a  7.00  THE OPTIMUM MANAGEMENT MODEL 7.10 7.20  Volume and F i n a n c i a l Y i e l d s Socio-economic C o n s i d e r a t i o n s 7.21 7.22 7.2 3  7.30 8.00  9.00  251 ...  F o r e i g n Exchange E a r n i n g A b i l i t y F i n a n c i a l Requirement f o r A f f o r e s t a t i o n Programmes ... Employment and Rural Development  Summary  e  251 272 272 280 289 29 7  SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS  301  8.10  Summary  301  8.20  Recommendations  308  LITERATURE CITES  10.00 APPENDICES  313 330  LIST OF TABLES page TABLE 1.  The Gross Domestic Product  (GDP) o f Uganda f o r the  p e r i o d 1957 to 1974 a t 1966 p r i c e s 2.  Economic I n d i c a t o r s : GDP growth r a t e s upon p r e v i o u s year  3.  (Uganda)  12 (%), based ...  ...  Performance o f the manufacturing s e c t o r i n Uganda (1966-74)  4.  Uganda's balance o f v i s i b l e  15 trade f o r the p e r i o d  1950-74 5.  13  18  Measures o f export i n s t a b i l i t y f o r Uganda (1950-1974)  ...  21  6.  T o t a l r e p o r t e d employment i n Uganda 1966-74  ...  25  7.  P a i d employment i n Uganda: t a r g e t s and a c t u a l performance  8.  ...  C o n t r i b u t i o n o f f o r e s t r y to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) o f Uganda  9.  28  R a t i o o f exports to imports f o r trade i n f o r e s t products i n Uganda (1961-74)  10.  30  ...  31  Employment and other economic data on f o r e s t i n d u s t r y i n Uganda  12.  ...  Percent change i n l a b o u r f o r c e o f the Uganda F o r e s t Department  11.  26  32  Revenue/Expenditure r e l a t i o n s o f the Uganda F o r e s t Department  ...  35  -xi-  TABLE 13. 14.  page The p o p u l a t i o n o f Uganda p r o j e c t e d to the year 2000 Uganda's GDP year 2000  46  (at 1966 p r i c e s ) p r o j e c t e d to the ...  48  15a. P r o d u c t i o n and consumption o f fuelwood and c h a r c o a l i n Uganda  52  15b. P r o j e c t i o n o f f u t u r e consumption o f fuelwood and c h a r c o a l i n Uganda to the year 2000  56  16.  P r o d u c t i o n , trade and consumption o f p o l e s and p o s t s i n Uganda  61  P r o j e c t i o n o f f u t u r e consumption o f p o l e s and p o s t s i n Uganda to the year 2000  63  P r o d u c t i o n and consumption o f and s e l f s u f f i c i e n c y i n sawnwood f o r Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda (1961-74)  65  Sawnwood consumption by end use c a t e g o r i e s i n East A f r i c a ...  67  P r o j e c t i o n o f f u t u r e consumption o f sawnwood and s l e e p e r s i n Uganda to the year 2000  70  P r o d u c t i o n , consumption and s e l f - s u f f i c i e n c y i n wood-based panels f o r Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda (1961-74)  74  P r o j e c t i o n o f f u t u r e consumption o f wood-based panels i n Uganda to the year 2000  76  Per c a p i t a consumption o f paper and paperboard in selected countries  80  P r o d u c t i o n and consumption o f and s e l f - s u f f i c i e n c y i n paper and paperboard f o r Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda (1961-74)  83  25.  P r o j e c t i o n o f f u t u r e consumption o f paper and paperboard i n Uganda to the year 2000  84  26.  Land use i n Uganda (1972)  91  17. 18.  19. 20. 21.  22. 23. 24.  -xii-  TABLE 27.  Percentage o f l a n d w i t h i n d i s t r i c t s i n Uganda a t t r i b u t e d t o v a r i o u s l a n d use commitments (1971  92  28.  The r e l a t i v e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f e c o l o g i c a l zones i n Uganda by d i s t r i c t groups  95  29.  The progress o f f o r e s t r e s e r v a t i o n i n Uganda (1932-71/72) ...  100  30.  Comparative s t a t i s t i c s o f f o r e s t l a n d area i n s e l e c t e d A f r i c a n c o u n t r i e s i n 1970  105  Growth trends i n the s i z e o f f o r e s t e s t a t e roundwood p r o d u c t i o n , p o p u l a t i o n and a g r i c u l t u r a l p r o d u c t i v i t y index i n percent (1956= 100)  108  31.  32.  F o r e s t area o f Uganda i n 1971....  33.  Summary o f present d i s t r i b u t i o n o f f o r e s t s , p l a n t a t i o n s and savannah types w i t h i n f o r e s t r y reserves i n Uganda  112  Size d i s t r i b u t i o n of f o r e s t r y reserves i n Uganda  114  An e v a l u a t i o n o f the p r o d u c t i v i t y o f lands w i t h i n f o r e s t r y r e s e r v e s i n Uganda  117  34. 35. 36. 37.  I l l  Summary o f estimated a v a i l a b l e p r o d u c t i v e lands w i t h i n savannah r e s e r v e s i n Uganda  ...  118  Summary o f areas o f t r o p i c a l h i g h f o r e s t s (THF) and p l a n t a t i o n f o r e s t s o f Uganda  120  38.  Area o f softwood p l a n t a t i o n s d i s t r i b u t e d by s p e c i e s and age ( i n ha)  128  39.  A v a i l a b l e supply o f roundwood f o r Uganda t o the year 2000  134  P o t e n t i a l roundwood supply year 2000  144  40.  and demand t o the  41.  Veneer and saw l o g consumption and supply (Uganda)  trends  42.  C o s t - e f f e c t i v e n e s s f o r P. p a t u l a S c h l . Chem i n Uganda ..."  145 16 8  -xiii-  TABLE 43.  V a r i a t i o n o f average i n t e r n a l r a t e of r e t u r n w i t h e s t a b l i s h m e n t c o s t s f o r a softwood p l a n t a t i o n on a medium s i t e i n Uganda ... ...  169  I n f l u e n c e of p r o b a b i l i t y o f p l a n t a t i o n success on the expected net worth of a Pinus p a t u l a stand on poor/medium s i t e at age 20  172  45.  The i n f l u e n c e o f market, c a p a c i t y and wood resource a v a i l a b i l i t y on the r o l e o f t h i n n i n g . . .  182  46.  NPK use 1975/76 i n A f r i c a n c o u n t r i e s consuming a t l e a s t 2000 tons per annum (excluding Rhodesia and South A f r i c a )  194  A summary t a b l e f o r the i n t e n s i v e management models  203  48.  Progress i n p l a n t i n g softwoods i n Uganda  212  49.  Cost estimates f o r the ment models  233  50.  B i o l o g i c a l and  51.  Land e x p e c t a t i o n for size  (Se)  Land e x p e c t a t i o n for size  (Se)  44.  47.  52.  f i v e i n t e n s i v e manage-  technical rotations...  ...  ....  24 3  values without premium 245 v a l u e s w i t h premium ...  246  D i s t r i b u t i o n o f t r e e s by diameter c l a s s e s at r o t a t i o n age f o r the f i v e i n t e n s i v e management models ...  252  54.  H a r v e s t a b l e volumes at r o t a t i o n age  260  55.  Economies i n land u t i l i z a t i o n based volume p r o d u c t i o n  53.  on  56.  Ranking o f a l t e r n a t i v e s  57.  A summary o f c o s t s and r e t u r n s data f o r i n t e n s i v e management models IA, IB, ID and IE assuming a c o n s t a n t (IA,IB and IC) and a s i z e - r e s p o n s i v e (ID and IE) revenue  261 ...  263  265  rxiv-  TABLE 58.  59.  page P r e s e n t net worth and i n t e r n a l r a t e o f r e t u r n f o r models IA, IB, IC, ID, and IE assuming a constant (IA, IB and IC) and s i z e - r e s p o n s i v e (ID and IE) revenue f u n c t i o n s ...  266  A summary of c o s t s and r e t u r n s data f o r i n t e n s i v e management models IA, IB, IC, ID and IE (assuming models IA, IB, IC, ID and IE (assuming a p r i c e per M o f U.shs 17.50 f o r pulpwood and U.shs 35.00 f o r veneer and saw logs)  26 8  P r e s e n t net worth and i n t e r n a l r a t e of r e t u r n f o r models IA, IB, IC, ID and IE assuming a p r i c e per M of U.shs 17.50 f o r pulpwood and U.shs 35 .00 f o r veneer and saw l o g s  269  Cost o f producing a c u b i c metre o f roundwood a t r o t a t i o n age ...  271  Economic v a l u e s o f l o c a l l y grown timber (sawlog p r o d u c t i o n schedule f o r softwood t r o p i c a l hardwoods)  277  3  60.  3  61. 62.  63. 64.  and  Volume, area and f i n a n c i a l requirements f o r woodlot farms c r e d i t schemes i n Uganda Volume, area needed and f i n a n c i a l commitment f o r softwood p l a n t a t i o n programme  2 84 ...  287  65.  An estimate o f annual l a b o u r requirement f o r e u c a l y p t woodlot farms  290  66.  Estimates o f annual l a b o u r requirements normal f o r e s t  29 2  in a  67.  Annual l a b o u r requirement afforestation  f o r softwood  68.  Determination o f l a n d a v a i l a b i l i t y i n d i c e s f o r afforestation  293 298  -xv-  LIST OF  ILLUSTRATIONS  Figure 1 2  page  Net and gross b a r t e r and income terms of trade f o r Uganda, 1951-74 ... ... ... ... ... World paperboard p r o d u c t i o n growth r a t e s (using 1962 as base year) ... ... ...  '20  ...  '78  Progress i n g a z e t t i n g government f o r e s t e s t a t e i n Uganda ••• ••• ••* ••• •••  101  Growth trends i n s i z e of f o r e s t e s t a t e , roundwood p r o d u c t i o n , p o p u l a t i o n and t o t a l a g r i c u l t u r a l p r o d u c t i v i t y index ... ... ... ... ...  109  5  L o c a t i o n of the major THF and softwood p l a n t a t i o n areas and e x i s t i n g wood p r o c e s s i n g f a c i l i t i e s . . .  123  6  Areas i d e n t i f i e d s u i t a b l e f o r growing e u c a l y p t s , p i n e s and cypress i n Uganda ... ... ...  .' • 129  7  I n d u s t r i a l roundwood supply f o r Uganda by f o r e s t c a t e g o r i e s to the year 2000 ... ... ...  135  8  The i n f l u e n c e of i n t e n s i v e management on the p r o d u c t i o n g o a l f o r timber ... ... ... ...  142  9  R e l a t i o n s h i p between marginal c o s t s of wood p r o d u c t i o n under area expansion and i n t e n s i f i c a t i o n of management ... ... ... ...  1-5-4  10  V a r i a t i o n of o u t p u t / i n p u t w i t h t e c h n o l o g i e s techniques .... ... ...  and ...  158  11  F a c t o r i n t e n s i t y and  ...  1.6.0  12  A schematic diagram of management o p e r a t i o n i n f o r e s t p l a n t a t i o n s o f the t r o p i c s ( g e n e r a l i z e d ) .  164  13  Determination  14  V a r i a t i o n o f r o y a l t y r a t e w i t h stand dbh  15  V a r i a t i o n of mean annual increment stand  3 4  technical efficiency  o f optimum spacing  ...  (MAI)  ...  ... ...  with  179  -ocvi-  LIST OF  ILLUSTRATIONS  continued Figure 16  V a r i a t i o n o f mean stand DBH w i t h age ...  17  V a r i a t i o n o f t o t a l volume produced stcind  with  cicj'G  18  Dominant h e i g h t and stand age r e l a t i o n s h i p s f o r the i n t e n s i v e management models  19  R e l a t i o n s h i p between volume (overbark) produc ed and stand age ... , . . .  20  R e l a t i o n s h i p s between volume (to 10 cm top diameter) produced and stand age ...  21  R e l a t i o n s h i p between volume (to 2 0 cm top diameter) produced and stand age ...  •-xy i i -  LIST OF APPENDICES page  Appendix I II  III  IV  V VI  The p o p u l a t i o n Uganda  d i s t r i b u t i o n of 3 30  Uganda F o r e s t Department adm i n i s t r a t i v e boundaries as a t 1968  331  Growth c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f the f o r e s t r y r e s e r v e e s t a t e s between 1964 and 1971  332  Variable y i e l d tables for i n t e n s i v e management models IA, IB, IC, ID and IE  333  Target c o s t s f o r the establishment of softwood p l a n t a t i o n s  338  Stand t a b l e s by diameter c l a s s e s and age f o r i n t e n s i v e management models IA, IB, IC, ID and IE ...  339  -xviii-  GLOSSARY  A number o f a b b r e v i a t i o n s commonly used i n t h i s study are as f o l l o w s : IM  -  i n t e n s i v e management;  CU  -  closer-utilization;  THFs  -  t r o p i c a l high f o r e s t s ;  GDP  -  Gross Domestic Product;  LDC  -  Less Developed Country; ,  MDC  -  More Developed Country  CPE  -  C e n t r a l l y Planned Economies;  GNP  -  Gross N a t i o n a l Product;  NMP  -  Net •: M a t e r i a l Product-  i : Can $ =  U.shs 8.142  -xix-  ACKN0WLED6EMENTS  I wish to r e g i s t e r my Professor  J.H.G. Smith who  and  thesis supervisor.  and  guidance.  s p e c i a l thanks to was  my  major p r o f e s s o r  I am g r a t e f u l f o r h i s d i r e c t i o n  S p e c i a l thanks a l s o go to members o f  t h e s i s and examination committees Drs. D. Haley, Pendakur, J.V.  Thirgood,  D.L.  In t h i s regard,  Cottell.  Thirgood  and P.L.  Cottell  Drs. D. Haley and V.S.  R.W.  Wellwood, S.P.  and J.V.  for e d i t o r i a l assistance;  Pendakur who  S p e c i a l thanks go to The  apart  valuable  and  from h e l p i n g criticisms.  Canadian I n t e r n a t i o n a l  Development Agency (CIDA) i n c o - o p e r a t i o n  with  Uganda Government f o r the f i n a n c i a l support The  V.S.  thanks go to Drs.  c l a r i f y some concepts, p r o v i d e d  t h i s study p o s s i b l e .  Ho  my  following  the  t h a t made  organizations  a s s i s t e d a t the v a r i o u s phases o f the t h e s i s w i t h i n formation  and data:  The  F a c u l t y of F o r e s t r y , The  v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h Columbia; The  Uni-  Commonwealth F o r e s t r y  I n s t i t u t e ; Makerere U n i v e r s i t y ; and  the Uganda F o r e s t ,  Department. I would l i k e to extend my student  colleagues  thanks to my  fellow  e s p e c i a l l y , Alphonso Casasempere,  Stephen Omule, Clement Kahuki, P e t e r Kofoed and Beaumont f o r the l i v e l y d i s c u s s i o n s we  had  Rodney  i n the course  -xx-  of w r i t i n g the t h e s i s . Mrs Carmen de S i l v a typed the v a r i o u s d r a f t s o f the t h e s i s and I am g r a t e f u l to h e r . Finally,  I would l i k e to thank the Canadians, who  wish to remain anonymous, f o r h a v i n g made my stay i n Vancouver worthwhile; and my f a m i l y who d e s p i t e my long absence gave me much needed encouragement  and support.  -xx i -  DEDICATION  F i r s t l y , t h i s t h e s i s i s d e d i c a t e d to my l a t e s i s t e r J e f u l a A c i a who had the f o r e s i g h t to send me to s c h o o l and u n s e l f i s h l y denied  herself  comfort f o r her v i s i o n . Secondly, the t h e s i s i s d e d i c a t e d to those e a r l y f o r e s t e r s i n Uganda who, w i t h minimum i n formation a v a i l a b l e , l a i d the foundation f o r f o r e s t r y with p o s t e r i t y i n mind and to the f u t u r e sons and daughters o f Uganda who s h a l l s t r i v e to uphold and develop the noble i d e a l s o f the f o r e s t r y p i o n e e r s so t h a t f o r e s t s o f Uganda s h a l l continue g i v i n g s e r v i c e to mankind i n p e r p e t u i t y .  -1-  CHAPTER ONE  1.00  INTRODUCTION  1.10  Background  Information  Uganda i s a s m a l l l a n d - l o c k e d country the c e n t r a l r e g i o n o f E a s t A f r i c a . 236  thousand square k i l o m e t e r s .  situated i n  I t has an area o f  By 1969 (the l a t e s t  census) the country had a p o p u l a t i o n o f 9.5 m i l l i o n . Based on the 1969 census, p o p u l a t i o n d e n s i t y ranged 2 from 10 to 170 persons per Km , g i v i n g a n a t i o n a l average of 49.  The uneven d i s t r i b u t i o n i s a r e f l e c t i o n  of the v a r i a t i o n s i n the share of " h a b i t a b l e " land and economic and s o c i a l development.  A high natural rate  of i n c r e a s e , n e t m i g r a t i o n and i n t e r n a l movement from one p a r t to another  c h a r a c t e r i z e the p o p u l a t i o n .  (See  p o p u l a t i o n d i s t r i b u t i o n i n Appendix I ) . Approximately Uganda  20 percent o f the t o t a l area o f  i s lake s u r f a c e .  Other aspects o f r e l i e f are  the mountains, r i v e r s and an i n t e r i o r p l a t e a u t h a t cont i t u t e s the major landscape  element i n the country.  S o i l s range from medium to h i g h l y p r o d u c t i v e , w i t h some patches e x h i b i t i n g low p r o d u c t i v i t y (FAO, 1975) . Temperatures vary between a mean minimum and maximum of 16 and 30°C, r e s p e c t i v e l y .  Apart  from  -2l i m i t e d areas i n the n o r t h e a s t , annual r a i n f a l l 750 mm,  and averages  1000  to 1250  mm  over much of the  country, r e a c h i n g a maximum of 2000 mm region.  exceeds  i n the w e t t e s t  The v e g e t a t i o n i n c l u d e s h i g h a l t i t u d e moorland  and heath, h i g h and medium a l t i t u d e f o r e s t s and v a r i o u s forms of savanna. The d i v i s i o n of Uganda i n t o p o l i t i c a l and i s t r a t i v e units  admin-  (provinces and d i s t r i c t s ) has been con-  s t a n t l y changing over the y e a r s . of 4 p r o v i n c e s there are now  ten.  From an i n i t i a l  number  T h i s i n s t a b i l i t y of  d i s t r i c t and p r o v i n c i a l boundaries has made c o l l e c t i o n of data i n g r e a t d e t a i l d i f f i c u l t . incompleteness  of data was  A second cause of  the d r a s t i c change i n owner-  s h i p of economic a s s e t s t h a t took p l a c e i n 1972. mentation still  Docu-  of t h i s occurrence and i t s c u r r e n t s t a t u s i s  incomplete.  t h i s study may  T h e r e f o r e , some data presented i n  be s e v e r a l years o l d .  However, i t i s  s t r o n g l y b e l i e v e d t h a t the major trends f o r the p r i n c i p a l economic a c t i v i t i e s have remained 1.20  the same.  Problem D e f i n i t i o n L i k e most c o u n t r i e s i n the t r o p i c s , Uganda belongs  to a group known as " T h i r d World", "Developing" or Developed"  (LDC)  i s poverty  (Ahuwalia, 1974;  "Less  c o u n t r i e s , whose common c h a r a c t e r i s t i c World Bank, 19 75a), or more  g e n e r a l l y , underdevelopment  (Meir, 19 76).  In these  countries' a g r i c u l t u r a l p r o d u c t i v i t y and per c a p i t a i n comes are low  (Hagen, 1952).  There e x i s t s rampant open  -3-  and d i s g u i s e d unemployment Stiglitz, little yet,  1969;  Myint,  (Lewis, 1 9 5 4 ; Nurkse, 1 9 5 7 ; F i n a l l y , there i s v e r y  1974).  r e s e a r c h and development being c a r r i e d out,  as a form of investment  i n LDCs, these  and  activities  have a r a t e of r e t u r n "so high as to warrant a much larger effort"  (Eckaus 1 9 6 6 ) .  The  l a c k of i n c r e a s e d  r e s e a r c h and development a c t i v i t i e s and the h i g h r a t e of  p o p u l a t i o n i n c r e a s e accentuate the unemployment  problem, s i n c e the r a p i d i t y with which labour i s absorbed i n t o employment depends upon i n t e n s i t y of i n n o v a t i o n and i t s l a b o u r - u s i n g b i a s ( F e i and Ranis, In  the p r e - c o l o n i a l e r a , most of the p r o d u c t i o n  i n Uganda was  geared to the c o n t r o l and a d a p t a t i o n of  nature to man's c o n s c i o u s , or f e l t needs. era of  was  The  colonial  the p e r i o d of major a l t e r a t i o n s i n the dynamics  the o l d s o c i e t y .  western of  1963).  I t i n c l u d e d the i n t r o d u c t i o n of  technology, c o l o n i a l c a p i t a l i s m and  integration  the c o l o n i a l economy i n t o the world economic  (Zwanenberg and King,  system  1975).  The country adopted  the e x p o r t - l e d model of  economic development with the p r i n c i p a l exports being a g r i c u l t u r a l produce.  The country i s s t i l l  a primary producer  where peasant farmers produce both cash and s u b s i s t e n c e crops  (Myint, 1 9 7 4 ) .  These crops comprise  about  78  p e r c e n t of t o t a l export with c o f f e e alone a c c o u n t i n g f o r  -450 percent, and c o t t o n , t e a and o t h e r a g r i c u l t u r a l c o n t r i b u t i n g 20, 5 and 3 p e r c e n t , r e s p e c t i v e l y . a g r i c u l t u r a l s e c t o r generated  products  In t o t a l , the  40 p e r c e n t of the GDP (FAO, 1975).  U n f o r t u n a t e l y , the development s t r a t e g y based on exports of a few a g r i c u l t u r a l p r o d u c t s , s o l d i n a c o n c e n t r a t e d market, has r e s u l t e d i n Uganda e x p e r i e n c i n g s e r i o u s f o r e i g n exchange a v a i l a b i l i t y c o n s t r a i n t s and a worsening  of the balance o f  payments s i t u a t i o n . "Uganda's economy i s p o l a r i s e d w i t h exports c o n s i s t i n g o f raw a g r i c u l t u r a l products o f low e l a s t i c i t y o f demand and imports o f manuf a c t u r e d consumer goods o f high v a l u e s . Consequently, Uganda's c a p a c i t y to i n c r e a s e h e r export earnings has not been a b l e t o match the i n c r e a s i n g c o s t o f imports. In e a r l i e r years Uganda enjoyed a comfortable balance o f payments but i n f l a t i o n i n the i n d u s t r a l i z e d n a t i o n s (the source o f imports) and unprecedented i n c r e a s e d domestic demand f o r manufactured goods, has e s c a l a t e d the import b i l l and Uganda has now s t a r t e d t o face s e r i o u s balance o f payments stresses". (FAO, 1975). F i n a l l y , although income i n e q u a l i t y i n Uganda has been moderate  (Ahluwalia, 19 74), the government has emphasized the  importance  o f r u r a l development and c r e a t i o n o f employment  opportunities.  These views were expressed i n the f o l l o w i n g  statements: "The immediate goals i n the promotion o f economic and s o c i a l j u s t i c e a r e : ( i i ) to b r i n g about a s i g n i f i c a n t r i s e i n the l e v e l o f m a t e r i a l w e l f a r e i n r u r a l areas, thus reducing the d i s p a r i t y between the standard o f l i v i n g i n the towns and t h a t i n r u r a l a r e a s . The d i s p a r i t y i s perhaps the most i n e q u i t a b l e f e a t u r e o f income d i s t r i b u t i o n i n Uganda a t the moment, and i t s r e d r e s s i s t h e r e f o r e the most urgent task i n the promotion o f economic and s o c i a l justice. The r u r a l s e c t o r which harbours the bulk of the country's p o p u l a t i o n a l s o p r o v i d e s the main source o f growth f o r the r e s t o f the country. And y e t the l e v e l o f economic and s o c i a l w e l f a r e i n r u r a l areas c o n t i n u e s to l a g f a r behind t h a t enjoyed i n  -5urban a r e a s . T h i s anomalous s i t u a t i o n must be c o r r e c t e d , not only because of i t s i n h e r e n t i n e q u i t y but a l s o i n order to stem the massive d r i f t of the p o p u l a t i o n to urban areas where they cannot a l l be absorbed i n t o f r u i t f u l employment (The T h i r d 5-Year Development Plan of Uganda, 1971/72 - 75/76); and c r e a t i n g employment o p p o r t u n i t i e s . "The p r o v i s i o n of o p p o r t u n i t i e s f o r f u l l employment to a l l c i t i z e n s who seek i t - the e l i m i n a t i o n o f i n v o l u n t a r y unemployment - i s one of the u l t i m a t e development g o a l s of the country Our knowledge of the present s t a t e of unemployment i n Uganda i s very incomplete. I t i s , however, q u i t e e v i d e n t t h a t there are many i n d i v i d u a l s i n urban areas who do not have a permanent job, and t h a t , i n the r u r a l areas, the extent of "underemployment" i s a t t a i n i n g alarming p r o p o r t i o n s . The e r a d i c a t i o n of i n v o l u n t a r y unemployment r e q u i r e s not o n l y f u l l employment of a l l persons c u r r e n t l y unemployed, but a l s o the c o n t i n u a l a b s o r p t i o n i n t o g a i n f u l and f u l l - t i m e employment of a l l a d d i t i o n s to the country's labour f o r c e . The magnitude of the task i s such t h a t the o b j e c t i v e can only be m e a n i n g f u l l y viewed as a long-term one". (The T h i r d 5-Year Development Plan of Uganda 1971/72 - 74/76). To a l l e v i a t e some of the above problems, i t has been suggested  t h a t the country should s t r i v e f o r a more r a t i o n a l  u t i l i z a t i o n of i t s n a t u r a l r e s o u r c e s . UN  (1970),  But, as suggested  t h i s can only be a c h i e v e d when o t h e r f a c t o r s  as a v a i l a b i l i t y of c a p i t a l , s k i l l e d labour f o r c e ,  by such  efficient  management, r e a l i s t i c development p l a n n i n g and w e l l conceived economic p o l i c i e s are taken care o f . Furthermore, a c c o r d i n g to Ahmad  (1960),  "The development and r a t i o n a l u t i l i z a t i o n of n a t u r a l resources i n the p r e s e n t low-income c o u n t r i e s of the world i s c l o s e l y t i e d to the process of economic development, which i s becoming s e r i o u s p o l i t i c a l business i n these countries. Though there e x i s t s no e s t a b l i s h e d  -6-  r e l a t i o n s h i p between n a t u r a l r e s o u r c e s and economic growth, i t i s i n c r e a s i n g l y r e cognized t h a t the p o t e n t i a l w e l f a r e o f a people s i g n i f i c a n t l y depends on a wise use of t h e i r f i x e d and renewable n a t u r a l r e s o u r c e s . Many reasons, both economic and p o l i t i c a l , support the need and d e s i r e f o r a r a t i o n a l u t i l i z a t i o n of r e s o u r c e s " .  An  emphasis on n a t u r a l  resource u t i l i z a t i o n  f o r economic  development o f Uganda i s i n cognizance o f the  fact,  that,  s i n c e the economy i s based p r i m a r i l y on a g r i c u l t u r e , f i s h i n g , hunting, f o r e s t r y arid mining, n a t u r a l staple inputs This sector.  study i s p r i m a r i l y concerned w i t h the Apart from the  been suggested t h a t the  n a t i o n a l output  ( R i i h i n e n , 1969;  Chatterjee,  1976)  contribute  development  (Kromm, 1972;  forestry  the p o t e n t i a l to  ( R i i h i n e n , 19631  earn f o r e i g n currency and  forestry  r o l e of forests i n conserving  s e c t o r through timber p r o d u c t i o n has  R e i l l y , 1974;  the  to the economic system.  the environment, i t has  increase  resources are  Adeyoju, 1975) ,  FAO,  1970;  to employment and  Seth, 1973;  King, 1975a; F i e l d and  Singh,  rural  1973;  Convery, 1976).  However, f o r a given country the a c t u a l c o n t r i b u t i o n the  of  f o r e s t r y s e c t o r to economic development w i l l depend  p r i m a r i l y on the e x i s t e n c e r e s o u r c e , and  o r e s t a b l i s h m e n t o f the  a sound f o r e s t p o l i c y .  In Uganda there are two n a t u r a l and  forest  man-made f o r e s t s .  high) f o r e s t s have low  sources o f wood supply, The  natural (tropical  y i e l d s o f merchantable wood, an  -7-  admixture of s p e c i e s whose wood p r o p e r t i e s a r e i m p e r f e c t l y understood, c h a r a c t e r i s t i c a l l y long r o t a t i o n s and complex e c o l o g i c a l systems t h a t complicate  management; and are  l i m i t e d to c e r t a i n p a r t s o f the country. economically  Based on the  f e a s i b l e y i e l d t h a t c o u l d be obtained  t r o p i c a l high f o r e s t s , Dawkins (1958) concluded  from the  that:  " I t i s t h e r e f o r e e v i d e n t t h a t annual acre y i e l d s o f saw-timber exceeding s i x t y c u b i c f e e t (ca. 4 m /ha) are u n l i k e l y to be achieved e x t e n s i v e l y by the THF ( t r o p i c a l high f o r e s t s ) even under the b e s t o f management. I f g r e a t e r y i e l d s a r e d e s i r e d , we must f i n d or i n t r o d u c e s p e c i e s w i t h s m a l l e r crowns and g r e a t e r t o l e r a n c e of crowding". : 3  According  to FAO (19 6 7a), the most  important  c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f f o r e s t s f o r "economic" wood  production  are: 1.  S u i t a b i l i t y of the wood produced f o r the endpurposes proposed.  2.  Homogeneity of m a t e r i a l .  3.  Large volumes p e r u n i t area, a l l o w i n g i n t e n s i v e working and s h o r t l o g g i n g h a u l s .  4.  A c c e s s i b i l i t y i n r e l a t i o n t o markets.  I f c o n t i n u i n g p r o d u c t i o n over more than a s i n g l e r o t a t i o n i s intended,  additional desirable characteristics  are: 5.  S t a b i l i t y i n land-usage p o l i c y , e.g., through the c r e a t i o n o f state-owned.forest r e s e r v e s , o r by the l e g a l d e d i c a t i o n of p r i v a t e land t o f o r e s t r y .  6.  The e x i s t e n c e o f a growing stock with a p o t e n t i a l f o r r a p i d increment i n terms of merchantable volume per u n i t area.  -8-  These c r i t e r i a  f u r t h e r discourage e x c l u s i v e  re-  l i a n c e on t r o p i c a l h i g h f o r e s t s as a source of wood supply i n c o n t i n u i t y , but encourage e s t a b l i s h m e n t of forest  plantations.  In a d d i t i o n ,  although Uganda  i s s i t u a t e d i n the t r o p i c s , the main type i s not The  f o r e s t s but  vegetation  savanna woodland/grassland.  p o t e n t i a l of these s i t e s f o r wood p r o d u c t i o n  only come from p l a n t a t i o n woodlands are  sparsely  f o r e s t r y , since  stocked, low  poor  and  can h a r d l y  transporting  i n the  a f f o r d the  savanna  y i e l d i n g and  o f t e n have s u f f e r e d from o v e r - c u t t i n g Furthermore, the p o p u l a t i o n  can  (FAO,  most  19 74) .  savanna r e g i o n  additional cost  wood to the r e g i o n .  is  of  T h e r e f o r e , because  o f the reasons s t a t e d above, f o r e s t p l a n t a t i o n s  have a  g r e a t p o t e n t i a l i n Uganda and  in  w i l l be d i s c u s s e d  f u r t h e r d e t a i l i n t h i s study. 1.30  Objectives 1.31  o f the  Primary  Study  Objective  To i n v e s t i g a t e methods to i n c r e a s e and  s o c i a l c o n t r i b u t i o n o f the  the  economic  f o r e s t r y sector  to  the  economy of Uganda. 1.32  Sub-objecfives a)  b)  To recommend e f f i c i e n t management regimes f o r a v a r i e t y of p l a n t a t i o n based i n d u s t r i a l f o r e s t developments, To recommend where p l a n t a t i o n velopment should occur.  de-  and  -9-  1.40  Methodology To evaluate  the p o s s i b i l i t i e s  o f a c h i e v i n g the  o b j e c t i v e s s t a t e d above, the f o l l o w i n g procedure w i l l be  followed.  In Chapter Two, a b r i e f review o f the  p a s t trends o f economic development i n g e n e r a l and t h a t p e r t a i n i n g to the f o r e s t r y s e c t o r w i l l be p r e sented. Chapter Three i s concerned w i t h e s t i m a t i o n o f f u t u r e consumption o f the main f o r e s t products groups. The methodology w i l l i n v o l v e t i m e - s e r i e s a n a l y s i s o f p a s t consumption t r e n d s .  The f o r e c a s t s w i l l  represent  p o s s i b l e l e v e l s o f f u t u r e domestic consumption. Domestic consumption o f , and o p p o r t u n i t i e s f o r exports o f wood products r e q u i r e i n p a r t t h a t a f o r e s t resource  e x i s t s o r i s developed.  Four, a d i s c u s s i o n on the extent and  i t s expected y i e l d  Therefore,  i n Chapter  o f the f o r e s t e s t a t e  o f roundwood based on c u r r e n t  management p r a c t i c e s w i l l be undertaken. o f roundwood p r o d u c t i o n  A forecast  w i l l c o n s t i t u t e the domestic  supply. To j u s t i f y  i n t e n s i f i c a t i o n o f f o r e s t management  i t i s necessary to show t h a t the p r o j e c t i o n s o f demand for  timber exceed those o f the supply.  deals w i t h j u s t i f i c a t i o n  Chapter F i v e  f o r and d i s c u s s i o n on the  concept o f i n t e n s i v e management.  In the same Chapter,  -10-  product-oriented  • intensive  management  models  w i l l  be  formulated. The are  financial  to a  large  extent  The  present  adopted. softwood levels for  plantations  Chapter  S i x w i l l  influencing  optimum  and  was  practice.  These  deal  with  rotation  Seven  w i l l  The  a t using  models.  of  socio-economic  of  this  years f o r  the  are expected  to  current change  Therefore  an analysis  involve  w i l l  a b i l i t y  given  of the  factors  f o r deter-  an a n a l y s i s  of the  of the intensive be  compared  of these  quality requirements development  models  manage-  w i t h the  current  t o supply  and f u l f i l  the  constitute  the last  timber  objectives part  Chapter.  Conclusions  and recommendations  Chapter Eight.  I t i s hoped  contribute  to the adoption  management  practices  that  t i a l l y  o f 20  length  length.  yields  and this  of  and  the rotation  length  arrived  management  financial  ment models,  in  rotation  operations  and s e l e c t i o n o f the c r i t e r i o n  Chapter volume  of forest  governed by  o f management.  the intensive  mining  consequences  forest  that,  of optimal  f o r forest  plantations  t o the economic  w i l l  w i l l  be  this  study  w i l l  product-oriented  plantations contribute  development  presented  of the  i n Uganda susstancountry.  -11CHAPTER 2.00  TWO  A REVIEW OF DEVELOPMENT TRENDS IN UGANDA 2.10  The  O v e r a l l Economy  Economic development may  be d e f i n e d as f o l l o w s :  "the process whereby the r e a l per c a p i t a income of a country i n c r e a s e s over a long p e r i o d of time - s u b j e c t to the s t i p u l a t i o n s t h a t the number below an "absolute poverty l i n e " does not i n c r e a s e , and t h a t the d i s t r i b u t i o n of income does not become more unequal" (Meir, 19 76) .- .. To achieve  economic development, governments i n Uganda have  c o n s i s t e n t l y i n t e r v e n e d i n the a l l o c a t i o n of scarce r e sources,  f i r s t as entrepreneurs  imperfections  and  i n the market p l a c e .  second because o f grave T h i s has been  achieved  through p r e p a r a t i o n of medium-term development p l a n s .  On  the  o t h e r hand, s t u d i e s f o r s e v e r a l A f r i c a n c o u n t r i e s have shown that  i f not w e l l formulated  these plans c o u l d themselves  become " c o n s t r a i n t s " (Shen, 1975). Development plans i n Uganda date as f a r back as 19 36. But a c c o r d i n g  to Vente  (1970), " t r u e " plans as understood i n  today's sense began i n 1962.  There have been some gains  through the mechanism o f p l a n n i n g evidence  However,  shows the performance of the economy has been below  optimum. GDP) , the 1963  f o r development.  In terms o f n a t i o n a l output '60s  to 1966).  (Gross Domestic  Product  d i d r e c o r d high growth r a t e s ( e s p e c i a l l y from However, o v e r a l l achievements i n growth r a t e s  were not s p e c t a c u l a r  (Table 1 ) .  For example,  (Table  2)  -12-  TABLE 1  The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) o f Uganda f o r the P e r i o d 1 9 5 7 t o 1974 a t 1 9 6 6 P r i c e s .  YEAR  GROSS DOMESTIC  PRODUCT  TOTAL ( m i l l i o n US $) .  PER CAPITA ($)  335 342 351 337 398 364 402 491 632 857 881 904 995 1019 1049 1077 1098 1041  4 7 ..72 4 7 ..50 4 7 ..49 4 4 . .46 5 1 . .22 4 5 ..61 4 9 ..14 58 ..52 7 3 ..49 9 7 ..28 9 7 ,.46 9 7 ..52 1 0 1 ..74 1 0 1 ,.39 1 0 4 , .38 1 0 4 , .26 1 0 3 , .39 9 5 ,.33  1  1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 19 67 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974  ANNUAL 2  TOTAL (•  +2. .08 +2. .63 - 3 . .99 +18 ..10 - 8 . .54 +10. .44 +22. .14 +28. .72 + 3 5 .. 60 +2. .80 +2, .61 +10. .07 + 2,.41 +2. .94 + 2,.67 +1. .95 - 5 , .19  Source: 1 2  -  FAO  (1975)  p o p u l a t i o n d e r i v e d from USDA (19 76) .  GROWTH RATE PER.CAPITA  - 0 . .46 - 0 ..02 - 0 . .06 +15. .20 - 1 0 . .95 + 7..74 +19. .09 +25. .58 + 32..37 + 0,.19 +0. .06 +4 .. 33 - 0 . .35 +2. .94 - 0 , .11 - 0 . .83 - 7 . .80  -13-  T a b l e \2  E c o n o m i c I n d i c a t o r s : GDP G r o w t h R a t e s ( % ) , B a s e d Upon P r e v i o u s Y e a r (Uganda)  CATEGORY A.  MONETARY 1. 2.  Agriculture Cotton growing, coffee c u r i n g , t e a and sugar manufacture 3. F o r e s t r y , f i s h i n g a n d hunting 4 . M i n i n g and q u a r r y i n g 5. M a n u f a c t u r e o f f o o d products 6 . M i s c e l l a n e o u s manufacturing 7. E l e c t r i c i t y 8. Construction 9. Commerce T r a n s p o r t and communi10. cations 11. Government 12. Miscellaneous services Rents 13. Average Monetary B.  1972  1973  -8. 9  9.1  5.3  -12. 4  -4.0  -3.2  -18 . 5  -24.2  13. 6 -6 . 7  7.6 -9.9  3.0 -28.0  2.0 -4.2  13.0 -37.'8  •r7 . 0  18.9  -9 . 5  -8.8  -1.8  -5.8 0.0 0.0 0. 0 -18 .1 -13 . 0 -1.0 .-12.2  2.9 -2.0 16.4 -2.4  -3.5 -3.0 -17.0 -23.2  -10.2 1.1 -8.4 -8 . 3  6.4 5.8 -7.6 -8.7  -1.9 18.5 -10.1 -11.4  19 71  ECONOMY  Economy  5. 4 8 .7 2 .2 2. 7  1974  Averagi  -11.6  1.6  17. 0 26. 6 4 .4 17. 7  0.3 10.7 6.1 -11.8  2. 2  1.0  -3.1  -3.8  -4.9  2. 5  6.7  2.3  1.9  11.2  '4. 5 6. 6  3.8 0.0  .3.1 0.0  3.6 3.0  10.8 6.3  4 .1  2.8  1.5  2.6  7.1  2. 9  6.0  2.2  2.1  10. 7  2 .4 .  3.2  -1.5  -1.9  -0.2  NON--MONETARY ECONOMY Agriculture Forestry, fishing and h u n t i n g 3 . Construction 4 . Owner-occupied dwellings  1. 2.  Average Non-Monetary A v e r a g e G r o w t h o f GDP  Source:  FAO  (1975)  Economy  shows t h a t i n the T h i r d P l a n p e r i o d , the monetary s e c t o r recorded a n e g a t i v e growth r a t e compared t o a t a r g e t o f p o s i t i v e 5.6 percent. t o t a l manufacturing  During the p e r i o d 1 9 6 6 t o 1 9 7 0 ,  grew a t a r a t e o f 5 . 8 p e r c e n t compared  to a t a r g e t r a t e o f 1 0 . 0 p e r c e n t , and t t h e achievement worsened d u r i n g the T h i r d P l a n  (Table 3 ) .  The d e s i r a b l e  composition o f the GDP was not achieved e i t h e r . the f a c t o r s t h a t c o n t r i b u t e d t o the sub-optimal  Some o f performance  were the c o u n t r y ' s share o f t h e g l o b a l i n f l a t i o n a r y t r e n d s , lack o f s k i l l  and managerial  competence and changes i n  ownership o f b u s i n e s s e n t e r p r i s e s . The  theory o f i n t e r n a t i o n a l trade as an"engine" o f  economic development has been e x t e n s i v e l y debated and w r i t t e n about, both i n favour (Haberler, 1 9 5 8 ; C a i r n c r o s s , 1 9 6 2 ; Meir, 1 9 7 6 ; Myint,  1 9 7 4 ) and a g a i n s t (Myrdal,  1956;  Prebisch,1964).  The c r i t i c s o f f o r e i g n trade as a primum mobile i n the economic development o f LDCs have put forward-, main arguments.  Firstly,  three  the development o f the export  s e c t o r by f o r e i g n c a p i t a l has c r e a t e d "dual economies" i n which p r o d u c t i o n has been e x p o r t - b i a s e d and the r e s u l t i n g p a t t e r n o f r e s o u r c e u t i l i z a t i o n has subsequently d e t e r r e d development.  Secondly,  t r a d e has impeded development  through the i n t e r n a t i o n a l demonstration standards i n MDCs, the "demonstration  o f h i g h e r consumption  effect".  Finally,  i n t e r n a t i o n a l market f o r c e s have t r a n s f e r r e d income from poor t o r i c h n a t i o n s through the d e t e r i o r a t i o n i n the  TABLE  3  Performance o f the Manufacturing Sector i n Uganda  (1966-1974)  Annual •Averaqe Rate(1966-70) 1966  l  (  Crop p r o c e s s i n g * Manufacture o f goods M i s c e l l a n e o u s manufacturing TOTAL manufacturing  96 49  19.67 1968 1969 1970 Growth  Plan  1971 1972 1973 1974. Annual Growth Rate  -million s h i l l i n g s - ) . ( S E ^ - ^ E ^ ) ( - — M l l i o n s h i l l i n g s - ) ( - ^ u a l -8.8 92 75 99 95 +5. 6 95 9.4 113 113 +4. 2 -3.0 63 57 52 57 66 +7. 8 +10. 8 56 65 48  359  378  393  426  452  +5. 9  +12 .6  482  482  454  467  -1.0  504  521  543  604  631  +5. 8  +10. 0  638  640  603  594  -2.4  ,  %  I I  * covers coffee-curing, cotton ginning, and sugar refining. SOURCE:  (1) Third Five-Year Development Plan of Uganda (covers period 1966-70 and growth rates). (2)  FAO (1975) for 1971 to 1974  -16"terms of t r a d e " o f LDCs. Advocates of i n t e r n a t i o n a l trade as an "engine" economic development m a i n t a i n t h a t i n t e r n a t i o n a l may  be advantageous through  earning)  and  indirect  Haberler  (1958),  i t s direct  of  trade  ( f o r e i g n exchange  (dynamic) b e n e f i t s .  According  to  the l a t t e r i n c l u d e : p r o v i s i o n of  m a t e r i a l s , a means and v e h i c l e f o r t r a n s m i s s i o n o f t e c h n i c a l know-how, s k i l l s and managerial for  talents; a vehicle  i n t e r n a t i o n a l movement of c a p i t a l , e s p e c i a l l y  from  MDCs to LDCs; and i t i s the b e s t anti-monopoly p o l i c y . Furthermore, i t i s argued, there i s nothing n e c e s s a r i l y r e g r e t t a b l e about dependence on f o r e i g n t r a d e . f o r e i g n trade may  h e l p transform a s u b s i s t e n c e economy  i n t o a monetary one,  i t does not, and cannot,  do more than t h i s , because o t h e r important be o p t i m i z e d  ( C a i r n c r o s s , 1962)  by  itself  factors  should  to i n c r e a s e the " c a r r y  over" e f f e c t s of proceeds from trade Due  Although  (Myint, 1974) .  to Uganda's heavy r e l i a n c e on exports to o b t a i n  f o r e i g n currency needed f o r imports, the country cannot i n the f o r e s e e a b l e f u t u r e do without  i n t e r n a t i o n a l trade.  On the other hand, arguments can be advanced a g a i n s t such an "over-dependency" when the nature of the export commodities i s considered The  (Laumer, 1970) .  development of a dual economy as a r e s u l t of  f o r e i g n c a p i t a l i n f l o w i n t o Uganda has been of minor ance.  import-  European settlement and subsequent development of a  p l a n t a t i o n economy f a i l e d p r i n c i p a l l y through  the c o l l a p s e  -17of c o f f e e p r i c e s i n 1920-22 (IBRD, 1962) . According to H e l l e i n e r  (1966) , t h e r e i s evidence  to show t h a t export e a r n i n g s from peasant-produced products are u n s t a b l e .  Where exports r e p r e s e n t a l a r g e  p a r t of the n a t i o n a l output of the performance  primary  as i n  Uganda, - e v a l u a t i o n  of the export s e c t o r with r e s p e c t  to s i g n i f i c a n t f l u c t u a t i o n s has important  implications.  A given LDC s import c a p a c i t y f o r c a p i t a l goods and 1  equipment, e s s e n t i a l f o r the development p r o c e s s , i s determined  p r i n c i p a l l y by export e a r n i n g s .  changes i n export earnings may  Unpredictable  introduce uncertainties  i n t o investment programmes a n d , t h e r e f o r e , r e t a r d economic growth.  Government tax revenues  are governed  to a large  extent by e x p o r t s . Increases i n income induced by upward changes i n export proceeds, may  increase: i n f l a t i o n a r y tendencies by  r a i s i n g demand f o r both d o m e s t i c a l l y produced  and  consumer goods, the supply of which tends to be i n e l a s t i c i n the s h o r t run (Love, 1975). export;:crops are grown by peasant incomes may  cause  imported  price  F i n a l l y , since  farmers, lower cash  severe h a r d s h i p s and/or a s h i f t i n t h e i r  p r o d u c t i o n f u n c t i o n , f a v o u r i n g food crops i n high demand on the domestic market. alternatives available,  The exact r e a c t i o n w i l l depend on and the degree o f r i s k - a v e r s i o n  p r a c t i c e d by1;the peasant producers  ( B r a i n a r d and Cooper, 1970) .  Table 4 shows t h a t Uganda's balance of v i s i b l e t r a d e has been p o s i t i v e over the p e r i o d 1952  t o 1974.  However,  - 1 8 -  TABLE 4 Uganda's B a l a n c e o f V i s i b l e T r a d e F o r t h e ' P e r i o d 1950-74*  Year  Exports (  1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974  (a)  80 . 0 132-.9 133.6 94.2 114 . 8 118 .4 116 .2 131.2 129.9 121.0 120.1 115. 5 114.7 152 .6 186 .1 179.1 187.9 183.5 185. 8 197. 7 248.1 235 .2 260.5 299.9 315.3  = *  (E) Growth Rate (%) + + + + + + + + + + + + + +  66 . 12 '0. 53 29 .49 21. 87 3...14 1. 86 12 .91 0. 99 6 .85 0. 74 3. 83 0. 69 33. 04 2 1 . 95 3. 76 4 .91 2 .34 1. 25 6 .40 25. 49 5. 20 10 . 76 15. 12 . .5. •14  Imports(M) Balance o f Trade Million Growth Rate U.S. D o l l a r s (%) 43.0 61.9 ' 68 . 0 71. 8 70 .6 95.1 78 . 7 80.8 75.6 71. 5 72.8 74 . 3 73.4 86.5 91.7 114 . 4 120 .1 115.6 122.6 127. 3 121.1 190.7 113. 8 97.6 132.0  + 43.95 + 9.8 5 + 5.59 - 1.67 + 34 . 70 - 17.25 + 2 .67 - 6.44 5.42 + 1. 82 2.06 - 1.21 + •17. 85 + 6 . 01 + 24.75 + 4 .98 3.75 + 6 .06 + 3.83 + 4 .87 + 57.47 - 40 . 33 - 14 . 24 + 35. 25  + 37.8 + 71.0 + 65.6 + 22.4 + 19.7 + 23.3 + 37.5 + 50.4 + 54.3 + 49.5 + 47.3 + 41. 2 + 41.3 + 66.1 + 94.4 + 64.7 + 67.8 + 67.9 + 63.2 + 70.4 +127.0 + 44.5 +146 .7 +202.3 +183.3  a l l v i s i b l e balance of trade figures p o s i t i v e unless otherwise indicated. e x c l u d e s t r a d e w i t h Kenya and T a n z a n i a SOURCE: U n i t e d N a t i o n s ( 1 9 7 6 ) Y e a r b o o k o f I n t e r n a t i o n a l Trade.  )  -19the f a c t t h a t the country i s f a c i n g s e r i o u s balance of payments problems (FAO,  1975), suggests heavy expenditure  on i n v i s i b l e imports: and those imports from Kenya and which were excluded from the data i n Table  4.  As a measure of Uganda's c a p a c i t y to import, "income terms of t r a d e " , which i s a combination gross b a r t e r terms of trade; was t h a t up t o 1960,  Tanzania  calculated.  the  of net and  F i g u r e 1 shows  the country had a f a v o u r a b l e c a p a c i t y to  import and t h e r e a f t e r experienced a d e c l i n i n g t r e n d w i t h short-term  fluetuations.  Table 5 shows a measure of i n s t a b i l i t y of export earnings f o r t o t a l export, i n d i v i d u a l and combined major cash crops, and t o t a l cash crops i n c l u d i n g f o r e s t p r o d u c t s . I n s t a b i l i t y i n t h i s case i s measured as the d e v i a t i o n of export v a l u e i n a g i v e n year from a 5-year moving and expressed as a percentage values.  In  of the higher of the  and 0.1  about 6 p e r c e n t w i t h a maximum and minimum percent, r e s p e c t i v e l y .  d u a l i s t i c or p l u r a l i s t i c economies, c h a r a c t e r i s t i c  of most LDCs, employment and r u r a l development are related.  two  The mean of the d e v i a t i o n s of t o t a l export earnings  f o r Uganda was of 20.7  average  Employment  of the  r u s t i c population  i n t e g r a l p a r t of r u r a l development.  inter-  i s an  Most c o u n t r i e s i n  e a s t e r n A f r i c a have drawn comprehensive p l a n s to encourage employment and/or r u r a l development. A c c o r d i n g to FAO  (1975),  80 p e r c e n t o f the p o p u l a t i o n  i n Uganda d e r i v e t h e i r l i v e l i h o o d s from a g r i c u l t u r e .  Ten  Figure  1.  N e t a n d G r o s s B a r t e r a n d Income Terms o f T r a d e 1951-1974 .  Source o f data:  UN  International  Trade Yearbook  (1976)  f o r Uganda,  -21TABLE 5 Measures o f Export  Instability  TOTAL Year  Volume (  1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 19 73 1974  a  -  (A)  .  (1950-1974)  EXPORTS 5 - Y e a r M o v i n g A v e r a g e (B) D e v i a t i o n  million  80.0 132.9 133.6 94.2 114 .8 118.4 116.2 131.2 129.9 121.0 120.1 115 . 5 114 . 7 152.6 186 .1 179.1 187.9 183.5 185.8 197.7 248 .1 235.2 260 .5 299.9 315.3  f o r Uganda  US •$  )  111.1 118 . 8 115.4 115 . 0 122.1 123. 3 123.7 123. 5 120.2 • 124.8 137.8 149 .6 164.1 177.8 184 . 5 186 . 8 200.6 210.1 225. 5 248.3 271.8  16.8 20.7 0.5 2.9 4.8 6.0 4. 8 2.0 0.1 7.5 16 . 8 2.0 11.8 0.7 1.8 1.8 7.4 5.9 9.1 5.3 4.2  d e v i a t i o n worked as p e r c e n t o f t h e h i g h e r d f t h e two v a l u e s .  Source:  1.  UN Y e a r b o o k o f I n t e r n a t i o n a l  %  Trade.  3  -22-  TABLE 5 c o n t i n u e d . . . . -  A 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 196 0 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 A B  247 231 270 403 314 432 417 374 340 280 404 544 708 608 696 692 715 780 1014 982 1128 1262 1635 1427  -  '  •B •  % Deviation  293 330 367 388 375 369 363 388 455 509 592 650 684 698 779 837 927 1033 1204 1287  7.9 18.1 14.4 10.2 10.1 1.3 6.3 27.8 11.2 6.4 16.4 6.5 1.7 0.9 8.2 6.8 8.9 4.9 6.3 1.9  7y  •  • COFFEE  —  COTTON ' B  A 599 336 418 328 386 350 363 309 298 334 166 287 317 335 307 303 296 251 351 352 368 336 273 213  TEA % Deviation  1.2 413 364 9.9 4.4 ' 369 0.9 347 341 6.1 6.6 331 1.3 294 16.5 279 280 . 40.7 0.3 2 88 282 11.0 7.5 310 312 1.6 1.7 298 2.0 302 19 . 3 311 7.7 324 5.7 332 8.7 336 8.3 308  A 6 7 19 21 18 22 20 24 29 29 40 41 44 48 . 63 70 74 93 95 95 126 109 110 121  B  % Deviat  14 .2 17. 4 20. 0 21. 0 22. 6 24 . 8 28. 4 32. 6 36. 6 40. 4 47. 2 53. 2 59 . 8 69. 6 79 . 0 85. 4 96 . 6 103. 6 107. 0 112 . 2  e x p o r t volume i n a g i v e n y e a r a 5-year p l a n moving average  SOURCE::  2) IMF 3) FAO  (19 77) (1975).  Forest Products  Y e a r Book, 1974.  25. 3 17.1 10.0 4.5 11. 5 3.2 2.1 11. 0 8.5 1.5 6.8 9.8 5.1 0.6 6.3 8.2 1.7 8.3 15.1 2.9  -23TABLE  Year  5 continued,...  Coffee, Cotton A  1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 ' 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 A B  -  852 574 707 752 718 804 800 707 667 643 610 872 1069 991 1066 1065 1085 1124 1460 1428 1622 ' 1707 2018 1761  B  721 711 756 756 739 724 685 700 772 837 922 1013 1055 1066 1160 1232 1344 1468 1647 1707  9  Crops +  and Tea" % Deviation  1.9 5.5 5.0 6 . 0 7.6 2 . 3 2.6 8.1 21. 0 4.0 13.8 2.2 1.0 0.1 6.5 8.8 7.9 2 .7 1.5 0.0  e x p o r t volume i n a . g i v e n a 5-year moving average  year  A  Forest Products B  % Deviation  •  649 614 875 1073 995 1070 1070 1091 1132 1470 1432 1626 1710 2021  841 925 1017 1060 1072 1167 1239 1350 1474 1652  379 13.8 2.2 0.9 0.2 6.5 8.6 8.2 2 .8 1.6  -24percent  earned t h e i r l i v i n g p a r t l y in. a a g r i c u l t u r e .:and  p a r t l y i n wage employment and/or r u r a l t r a d e . aversity  of school  Due t o the  l e a v e r s t o a g r i c u l t u r e , and t h e high  f  r u r a l and urban wage d i f f e r e n t i a l , those between the ages 16 t o 34 c o n s t i t u t e over 50 percent migration.  This,therefore, deprives  the most a c t i v e and p r o d u c t i v e The  of t o t a l  1969 p o p u l a t i o n  the r u r a l sector of  p o r t i o n o f the p o p u l a t i o n .  census estimated the a c t i v e  f o r c e a t 2.5 t o 3.5 m i l l i o n .  labour  From Table 6, the number o f  those g a i n f u l l y employed i n c r e a s e d 354,688 i n 1974.  rural-urban  from 246,029 i n 1966 t o  However, the r a t e o f i n c r e a s e i n wage  employment slowed down and reached a l e v e l below the t a r g e t a n t i c i p a t e d i n the T h i r d P l a n .  The number engaged  i n p a i d employment c o n s t i t u t e d 3 percent population  or 12 percent  o f the t o t a l  of a c t i v e p o p u l a t i o n ,  the dominant r o l e o f t h e primary s e c t o r  emphasizing  (FAO, 1975) .  S e c t o r a l composition o f employment f o r the Third: Plan i s not a v a i l a b l e .  Based on performance i n the Second  Plan, Table 7 shows the great v a r i a t i o n i n achievement o f employment o b j e c t i v e s by s e c t o r s .  The growth r a t e s o f  employment i n a g r i c u l t u r e , f o r e s t r y , f i s h i n g , hunting and manufacturing s e c t o r s were s u b s t a n t i a l l y below t a r g e t . 2.20  The F o r e s t r y Since  Sector  f o r e s t s c o n s t i t u t e a b a s i c n a t u r a l resource  can be m o b i l i z e d  that  f o r a c c e l e r a t e d economic development  i n an LDC (Enabor, 1976), they assume a s p e c i a l s i g n i f i c a n c e . The  importance o f n a t u r a l resources  as a v e h i c l e o f economic  TABLE .6 T o t a l R e p o r t e d Employment I n Uganda 1966-74 S Year  Private  E  C  T  Public  O  ANNUAL RATE OF GROWTH  R Total  Private  Public  Total  (-  Number-  AVERAGE WAGE. RATES Amount (U shs)  Increase (%)  1966  154285  91,774  246,029  5.00  0.34  0.17  3620  6.3  1970  183537  128,815  312,352  1.33  11.63  5.89  4258  7.5  1971  190508  134,759  324,759  3.80  4.61  3.97  . 4259  0.0  1972  180662  149,105  329,767  -5.17  10.65  1.54  4410  3.65  1973  164328  183,975  348,303  -9.04  5.62  5.62  4424  0.3  1.83  1.83  4421  -0.1  1974  SOURCE:  163679  FAO (19 75).  191,009  354,688  -0.39  i Ul  I  TABLE P a i d Employment  7  i n Uganda: Target  Actual level ^1 1966 Agric. Forestry,-fishing & hunting  1970  and A c t u a l Performance:  Plan target Percentage for increased of target Actual increase/1 employments i n f i r s t 4 years of the Plan. 1966-70 1966-71 *5 Q,  •1000 "jobs52.9  54.9  2.0  23  9  6.4  7.9  1.5  1  150  42.7  54.0  11.3  19  59  Construction  29.2  47.7  18.5  12  154  Commerce  14.2  14.3  0.1  5  2  9.8  12.6  2.8  Government Administrations /4  35.7  45.1  9.4  Services  55.1  75.9  20.8/5  12/6  246.0  312.4  66.4  85  Mining & Quarrying Manufacturing  .  Transport & Communications  TOTAL  93 10  1. 2. 3. 4.  O f f i c i a l data Adjusted second Plan data Including crop processing Excludes government education and health services, which are covered in the "Services" sector. 5. Coverage excludes domestic servants 6. Coverage includes domestic servants  SOURCE: Third Five-Year Dev. Plan of Uganda (1971/72-75/76); p. 84.  94 173 78  -27development i s e q u a l l e d o n l y by the c o m p l e x i t i e s o f t h e i r manipulation  (Ahmad, 1960).  c r i t e r i o n f o r a n a t u r a l resource usability".  However, the p r i n c i p a l i s i t s "potential  Resources which are now o n l y p o t e n t i a l but  c o u l d be e x p l o i t e d i f c e r t a i n c o n d i t i o n s were met, c o n s t i t u t e developable  resources.  In a d d i t i o n t o o t h e r f a c t o r s c o n s i d e r e d below, the importance of f o r e s t r y t o the economy o f Uganda may be expressed  i n terms of i t s c o n t r i b u t i o n t o GDP.  not i n any way  T h i s does  minimize the major r o l e f o r e s t r y p l a y s i n  c o n s e r v a t i o n and p r o t e c t i o n o f t h e environment. If the value o f t h i s l a t t e r r o l e was q u a n t i f i e d and added to the r e s t , i t c o u l d c o n t r a d i c t the c u r r e n t estimates  o f the s e c t o r .  conservative  Based on data a v a i l a b l e , f o r e s t r y ' s  t o t a l c o n t r i b u t i o n ( i n c l u d i n g both the monetary and subsistence  s e c t o r s based on 1966 p r i c e s ) t o the GDP o f  Uganda i n 1970 was 2.1 percent d u r i n g the p r e v i o u s  f i v e years.  and had not v a r i e d much A larger portion of this  c o n t r i b u t i o n was i n the s u b s i s t e n c e  sector  (Table 8) .  From 1966 t o 1970, the value o f t h i s c o n t r i b u t i o n i n c r e a s e d from 128.5 t o 157.4 m i l l i o n s h i l l i n g s , r e p r e s e n t i n g an average annual compound growth r a t e o f 4.1 percent, i n excess o f the n a t u r a l r a t e o f i n c r e a s e  well  o f the p o p u l a t i o n .  These values are under-estimates even f o r the q u a n t i f i a b l e aspects of t h e s e c t o r ' s c o n t r i b u t i o n . the f o r e s t p r o v i d e s the raw m a t e r i a l f o r c h a r c o a l  Firstly, production  which i s the b a s i c household f u e l i n urban areas and i t i s  TABLE 8 : C o n t r i b u t i o n o f F o r e s t r y t o the Gross Domestic Product •''(GPD) - of Uganda.  Year 1965  1966  1967  1968  1969  1970  - m i l l i o n s h i l l i n g s a t 1966 p r i c e s Monetary S e c t o r Subsistence  3.8  3.8  5.0  5.4  5.8  124.4  133.0  136.9  142.1  146 .1  151.6  128.5  136.8  140.7  147.1  151.5  157.4  5,787.0  6,119.0  6,296.0  6.459.0  7,105.0  7,326.0  2.1  2.2  2.2  2.2  2.1  2.1  Sector  Total T o t a l GDP % o f GDP  Source:  4.1  Lockwood C o n s u l t a n t s L t d . (1971).  i ''co I  estimated t h a t 5 m i l l i o n i n the purchase  s h i l l i n g s are spent a n n u a l l y  of t h i s f u e l .  Unfortunately>this  not recorded i n Uganda's n a t i o n a l accounts  was  f o r the  monetary s e c t o r (Lockwood C o n s u l t a n t s L t d . , 1971). Secondly,  other i n d i r e c t b e n e f i t s such as e x t e r n a l  economies ( i n t e r - s e c t o r a l l i n k a g e s ) were i g n o r e d . The volume of Uganda's imports of f o r e s t products g r e a t l y expanded s i n c e 1961,  while exports d e c l i n e d .  r a t i o of exports t o imports g r e a t e r than one, was i n 1961,and the p r e c e d i n g y e a r s . exports compared t o imports was See Table 9;. b i l l was  The  almost  A  achieved  the value of  negligible.  g r e a t e s t c o n t r i b u t i o n t o the  paper and paperboard.  sawnwood was  By 1974,  has  import  The volume o f exports of  f a r i n excess of imports.  T h i s i s not s u r -  p r i s i n g s i n c e the e a r l y f o r e s t e r s emphasized sawnwood production,,; and d i d l i t t l e  e v a l u a t i o n o f the consequences  of i n c r e a s e d consumption f o r other f o r e s t p r o d u c t s . T a b l e 10 shows not o n l y a very s m a l l number of persons employed i n f o r e s t management but t h a t the number fluctuated a great d e a l .  T h e r e f o r e , i t can s a f e l y  concluded t h a t f o r e s t r y i n Uganda does p r o v i d e  be  rural  employment but a t a very i n s i g n i f i c a n t and u n s t a b l e  level.  F o r e s t i n d u s t r i e s employed over 10 p e r c e n t of the labour f o r c e engaged i n manufacturing labour  was  ( Table ' 11  .) .  More  employed per u n i t o f gross output i n the  f o r e s t i n d u s t r i e s s e c t o r compared t o the average manufacturing.  The  for a l l  f o r e s t i n d u s t r i e s are thus l a b o u r —  -30TABLE  9.  Ratio: . o f Exports t o Imports f o r Trade i n F o r e s t Products i n Uganda (1961-74)  Year  Exports (  Imports  IQOO o f U.S. d o l l a r s  Exports/Imports )  1961  789  678  116  62  513  719  71  63  415  808  51  64  510  983  52  65  500  1582  32  66  575  1948  30  67  760  2691  28  68  848  5233  16  69  1065  6196  17  1970  1342  3556  38  71  575  5209  11  72  568  2651  21  73  413  3149  13  74  380  7058  5  Source:  FAO  (19 75) Yearbook o f F o r e s t Products 1974.  (%)  -31TAJ3LE 10 Percent Changes i n Labour Force o f the Uganda F o r e s t Department  Year  Labour Force (number)  Percent Change (.%.)'.  1946  2268  —  47  2729  +20.3  48  2764  + 1.3  49  (2764)  0.0  1950  2703  - 2.2  51  2762  + 2.2  52  2136  -22.7  53  3163  +48.1  54  3449  + 9.0  55  3384  - 1.9  56  3399  + 0.4  57  3254  - 4.3  58  4023  +23.6  59/60  3386  -15.8  1960/61  2832  -16.4  61/62  2813  - 7.0  62/63  2328  -17.2  6 3/6 4  2341  + 6.0  ( Source:  )  an estimate Uganda F o r e s t Department Annual Reports 1946-68.  -32TABLE  11  Employment and Other Economic Data on F o r e s t In Uganda  Industry  196 9  1971  Employment (Number) % o f manufacturing  5137 11.35  5092 10.75  Gross output ( m i l l i o n s h i l l i n g ) % o f manufacturing  70.6 3.28  96.7 3.89  ( m i l l i o n s h i l l i n g ) 26.89 6 .05  32.88 6.27  Value added i n f a c t o r p r i c e s % o f manufacturing  Gross C a p i t a l formation ( m i l l i o n % o f manufacturing Per  shilling)  4.13 3.95  0.51 0.65  Gross output ( s h i l l i n g s ) Forest industry a l l manufacturing  13743 47613  19881 52547  Value added ( s h i l l i n g s ) Forest industry a l l manufacturing  52 35 9819  6457 11073  804 2312  100 1670  Man-year employed 1.  2.  3.  Gross c a p i t a l  formation  Forest industry a l l manufacturing  Source:  U n i t e d Nations  (1974) .  (million shilling)  -33i n t e n s i v e . -This conforms t o the o b s e r v a t i o n Lockwood Consultants  Ltd.  made by  (1971) t h a t " f o r e s t based  i n d u s t r i e s are labour- i n t e n s i v e and are second o n l y t o the t e x t i l e i n d u s t r y " .  I t a l s o agrees w i t h the s i t u a t i o n  i n N i g e r i a where f o r e s t i n d u s t r i e s ranked f i r s t i n i n d u s t r i a l employment i n 1963 (Adeyoju, 1975). Based on the c u r r e n t l a b o u r - i n t e n s i v e  forest  i n d u s t r y , encouragement o f expansions i n i t does .have the scope t o c r e a t e more jobs. the extent in future.  T h i s w i l l , however, depend on  t o which t h e i n d u s t r y i s made c a p i t a l - i n t e n s i v e Pulp and paper m i l l s are h i g h l y c a p i t a l  inten-  s i v e while,on the average, sawmills a r e t h e l e a s t . Obviously,  production  dustries.  "There are l i n k a g e s among i n d u s t r i e s , and one  labour-intensive  cannot be l i m i t e d t o labour  i n d u s t r y may r e q u i r e connected  that a r e not q u i t e so l a b o u r — i n t e n s i v e . the p i c t u r e as a whole"(Corea, 1977) .  intensive in-  activities  One has t o take In other words an  even h i g h l y s o p h i s t i c a t e d c a p i t a l - i n t e n s i v e i n d u s t r y can have l a b o u r - i n t e n s i v e employment prospects  side e f f e c t s .  Maximizing the  o f the f o r e s t r y s e c t o r  i d e n t i f y i n g the a p p r o p r i a t e  requires  p r o d u c t i o n mix.  A f a i r amount o f success has been achieved and  recruitment.  schooloof  i ntraining  C u r r e n t l y , there e x i s t s a p r o f e s s i o n a l  f o r e s t r y a t Makerere U n i v e r s i t y and a t e c h n i c a l  forestry; college  (Nyabyeya F o r e s t C o l l e g e ) .  All districts  f o r e s t o f f i c e r s a r e profession^ials.. A s t r i k i n g f e a t u r e i s t h a t the s i z e o f the a d m i n i s t r a t i v e  s t r u c t u r e i s not r e l a t e d  -34-  to the amount of work to be done, but r a t h e r i s determined by p o l i t i c a l and a d m i n i s t r a t i v e boundaries. T h e r e f o r e , so long as the number of d i s t r i c t s keeps changing, so w i l l the s i z e of the a d m i n i s t r a t i v e s t a f f . Consequently  t h i s makes a d m i n i s t r a t i o n extremely  pensive as i s shown by the revenue/expenditure i n Table  ex-  analysis  12.  I t may  be argued  t h a t although expenditure exceeded  revenue i n the m a j o r i t y of y e a r s , the revenue s i d e o n l y r e p r e s e n t s r o y a l t y p a i d f o r timber, p o l e s and  fuelwood.  Other b e n e f i t s of f o r e s t r y do not show i n annual expenditure statements. p r o t e c t i o n , watershed, 2.30  revenue/  A s s o c i a t e d w i t h f o r e s t r y are  soil  a e s t h e t i c and r e c r e a t i o n a l v a l u e s .  Summary The pace of economic development i n Uganda has been  below t a r g e t .  Growth r a t e of the gross domestic  has been u n s p e c t a c u l a r .  product  There i s evidence o f a long-term  d e t e r i o r a t i o n i n the terms of t r a d e , elements  of export  i n s t a b i l i t y and a s e r i o u s s t r e s s i n the balance of payments. than  Employment and r u r a l development have been l e s s  satisfactory. The p a s t performance  of the f o r e s t r y s e c t o r i n -  d i c a t e d t h a t i t s d i r e c t c o n t r i b u t i o n to GDP The  s e c t o r had a low export/import r a t i o .  f o r e s t management was  small and u n s t a b l e .  was  minimal.  Employment i n On the other  -35-  TABLE Revenue/Expenditure  Year 1930 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 1940 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 1950 51 52 53 54 55/56 56/57 57/58 58/59 59/60 1960/61 61/62 6 2/6 3 63/64 64/65 65/66 66/67 67/68  Source: *  an  relations  12  o f t h e Uganda F o r e s t  Revenue Expenditure ( U.shs.19131 16399 10667 18236 9342 16296 10467 16461 12489 17089 15078 19386 21619 20548 22821 19822 23066 21516 20509 23707 16889 23259 25380 21954 37033 23147 51144 28281 56431 30746 62918 35308 57463 39041 44887 55664 45233 87665 50659 90373 62351 95916 59678 121893 69840 131666 90469 139698 91459 160545 96283 226041 87913 228214 109576 231640 101324 241855 232532 105285 92413 232384 74626 244592 86934 260940 78658 273789 95982 325297. 159491 • 278850 174512 343228 200703 449681*  )  Department  Revenue/Expei  Uganda F o r e s t D e p a r t m e n t , A n n u a l ' R e p o r t s estimate  117 58 57 64 73 78 105 115 107 87 73 116 160 181 184 178 147 81 52 56 65 49 53 65 57 43 39 47 .42 45 40 31 33 29 30 57 51 45  (1930-1968).  -36-  hand,  forest  second to of  the  industries  the  total  textile  development well  in  planned.  appropriate models.  in  the  and  contributed  ranking 10%  manufacturing.  to contribute Uganda,  labour-intensive,  industry  employment  Therefore,  were  substantially  forestry  A prerequisite  product-oriented  is  the  sector  to  economic  should  be  identification  intensive  management  of  CHAPTER  THREE  3.00  FORECAST OF FUTURE CONSUMPTION OF FOREST PRODUCTS  3.10  Introduction I f Uganda were an open economy, i t should produce as  much of a g i v e n commodity as i t s comparative c o s t advantage over others would allow, u n t i l the c o s t o f  availability  of resources  i n c r e a s e s to a p o i n t where t h i s advantage i s  eliminated.  In such a case,  determination  of the  future  l e v e l of consumption of f o r e s t products w i l l be of minor importance f o r e s t a b l i s h i n g a p r o d u c t i o n  goal.  The  theory  of comparative advantage i n i n t e r n a t i o n a l trade i s f a r from p e r f e c t and  i n t h i s chapter,  f o r e c a s t i n g , and  the economic r a t i o n a l e f o r  the a c t u a l f o r e c a s t s of consumption o f  f o r e s t products i n Uganda w i l l be A key  step i n any  assessed.  f o r e c a s t i n g i s the s e l e c t i o n o f  the  " f o r e c a s t p e r i o d " which r e f e r s to the l e n g t h of time between making a f o r e c a s t and o b s e r v i n g  the t r u e  value.  T h i s p e r i o d i s o f t e n a r b i t r a r i l y d i v i d e d i n t o s h o r t , medium, o r long range  (McKillop, 1971).  To f o r e c a s t how i n the f u t u r e , one and  much of any  commodity w i l l be  should i d e a l l y estimate  demand c o n d i t i o n s f o r t h a t commodity.  required  the f u t u r e  supply  The i n t e r s e c t i o n  o f these g i v e s a f o r e c a s t of a c t u a l consumption.  A forecast  based on a s t a t i s t i c a l r e l a t i o n s h i p between p a s t  consumption  and  c e r t a i n predetermined v a r i a b l e s g i v e s p o t e n t i a l con-  sumption.  In t h i s study, p a s t consumption, the b a s i s f o r  -38estimating  p o t e n t i a l consumption, w i l l be taken t o mean  "apparent consumption" such t h a t : C = P + I - E where  C = apparent consumption P =  production  I = imports E = exports To use the r e l a t i o n s h i p expressed above f o r e s t i m a t i n g  past  l e v e l s o f consumption i n Uganda i m p l i e s , that,changes i n stocks  o f producers and consumer agencies are excluded.  Therefore,  the a c t u a l past  consumption l e v e l . , and even  more so, f o r e c a s t s i n t o the f u t u r e , should be t r e a t e d w i t h even g r e a t e r  caution.  Despite the restrictions' d i s c u s s e d  above, i t i s true  t h a t g l o b a l l y , a v i r t u a l l y i n s a t i a b l e demand f o r a peek a t the  f u t u r e - - a l b e i t clouded by u n c e r t a i n t y -- has given  to a host o f longer  run economic a p p r a i s a l s  (Daly,  One a t t i t u d e toward long-term f o r e c a s t s i s t h a t about them i s so h y p o t h e t i c a l , usefulness.  rise  1963).  everything  they cannot have any r e a l  A t the o t h e r extreme, i t i s b e l i e v e d ,  pro-  j e c t i o n s and t h e i r use i n economic programming have p u t economic p o l i c y and business .management on a more basis.  scientific  S u b s t i t u t i n g hunches by a s c i e n t i f i c a l l y  determined  optimum program should make f o r b e t t e r management o f i n d i v i d u a l e n t e r p r i s e s , and f o r a b e t t e r o p e r a t i o n economy as a whole  (Colm, 1958) .  A c t u a l l y , there  o f the i s truth  - i f -  i n both these viewpoints, but perhaps  what i s more  important, i s to r e a l i z e t h a t an economic f o r e c a s t i s hot an " u n c o n d i t i o n a l prophecy" The importance  (Enabor, 19 71).  o f p l a n n i n g as a p r e r e q u i s i t e t o  formulating p o l i c i e s  f o r economic development i n LDCs  emphasized i n Chapter Two.  was  Change and economic growth  b r i n g economic o p p o r t u n i t i e s but they a l s o b r i n g r i s k  and  u n c e r t a i n t i e s p a r t i c u l a r l y i n a s o c i e t y which i s c h a r a c t e r i z e d by low p u r c h a s i n g power f o r v i t a l commodities. the task o f p l a n n i n g to minimize  It is  r i s k w h i l e t a k i n g advantage  o f o p p o r t u n i t i e s (Adeyoju, 1971).  For example, development  plans of Uganda have s t r e s s e d the need f o r a h i g h growth r a t e i n GDP.  As noted by Nweke (1977) f o r N i g e r i a ,  would i n v o l v e expanded investments and other key s e c t o r s .  i n education, a g r i c u l t u r e  I f such investment  i s sustained,  i t w i l l r e s u l t i n modernization w i t h important f o r wood consumption.  The  this  consequences  role of forecasting potential  consumption o f f o r e s t products i s to e s t a b l i s h  these  consequences. A l t e r n a t i v e l y , we may for forest policy.  Any  look at f o r e c a s t s as foundations  attempt  to formulate n a t i o n a l  forest  p o l i c y would be open to severe c r i t i c i s m i f i t f a i l e d t o c o n s i d e r the country's p r e s e n t and f u t u r e needs f o r wood (Gregory, 1966).  E s t i m a t i o n o f f u t u r e requirements  are  v a l u a b l e t o producers o f any m a t e r i a l , and e s p e c i a l l y p o r t a n t t o the f o r e s t e r who,  a f t e r t a k i n g steps to  im-  initiate  p r o d u c t i o n , g e n e r a l l y has t o w a i t many years b e f o r e the  -40-  product  i s marketed.  The  estimates o f f u t u r e timber needs  thus c o n s t i t u t e a v i t a l item i n the formulationof f o r e s t p o l i c y as a whole (Hanson, 1959). Hummel and  Grayson  -  According  to  (1962), f o r m u l a t i o n o f p r o d u c t i o n  goals should be a " l o g i c a l f i r s t  step" i n p l a n n i n g  the  development o f a n a t i o n ' s f o r e s t r e s o u r c e s ; and one  main  c o n s i d e r a t i o n i n a r r i v i n g at a p r o d u c t i o n goal i s to e s t a b l i s h the probable page 44)  t r e n d i n demand.  Grainger  (1961}  stated, "The f o r e s t e r i s i n t i m a t e l y concerned w i t h d i s t a n t l y f u t u r i s t i c markets to a f a r g r e a t e r degree than any o t h e r business or prof e s s i o n a l man; moreover, o f a l l commercial crops h i s i s the most r i g i d and the l e a s t responsive to the economic law o f supply and demand. To t r y and d e f i n e the t r e n d of f u t u r e f o r e s t products i s a d m i t t e d l y a d i f f i c u l t and s p e c u l a t i v e e x e r c i s e , y e t i n the absence o f some such s y s t e m a t i c assessment any changes i n the f o r e s t e s t a t e w i l l be l a r g e l y f o r t u i t o u s and probably t o t a l l y u n r e l a t e d to n a t i o n a l needs. A c r i t i c a l a n a l y s i s o f consumption trends as a basis f o r a considered forecast of future requirements i s t h e r e f o r e one o f the f o r e s t e r ' s b a s i c t o o l s o f management".  Looking  at i t i n y e t another way,  implications  f o r e c a s t s have  f o r s o c i e t y ' s w e l f a r e i n terms o f  consumer s u r p l u s .  important  producer/  For example, i n r e g i o n s where f o r e s t r y  has no comparative advantage, economists have to r e c o n c i l e the d i f f e r e n c e s between p r o d u c t i v i t y and s i m i l a r aspects n a t i o n a l product  i n determining  strategic  and  the p r o p o r t i o n o f the  to be a l l o c a t e d to f o r e s t r y .  Once the  p r o d u c t i o n f u n c t i o n has been i d e n t i f i e d , ' f o r example that,,  -41of wood requirements, t h goal thus expressed must be measured.  The s t a r t i n g p o i n t s then are trends  markets-for f o r e s t  i n the  products.  In the e a r l y '60s FAO p i o n e e r e d wood consumption s t u d i e s i n Uganda, Kenya and Tanganyika zania mainland).  (now Tan-  These i n v e s t i g a t i o n s had as one o f  t h e i r o b j e c t i v e s , development o f an estimate o f f u t u r e wood needs, so -that the c o u n t r i e s concerned might avoid a needless s a c r i f i c e o f v a l u a b l e might b e t t e r be turned  f o r e s t resources  that  t o immediate economic g a i n and  i n d u s t r i a l development (Gregory, 1966).  In t h i s  study  the main o b j e c t i v e o f f o r e c a s t i n g f u t u r e consumption o f wood products i n Uganda i s t o assess the i m p l i c a t i o n s o f p r o j e c t e d economic and demographic trends on the f o r e s t r y sector.  Balanced a g a i n s t p o t e n t i a l roundwood  supply  from e x i s t i n g f o r e s t s (which w i l l be determined i n Chapter Four) the f o r e c a s t s obtained  below w i l l t o some  extent  determine the need f o r an expansion o f p l a n t a t i o n p r o grammes, i n t e n s i f i c a t i o n o f management and the minimum l e v e l s o f resources  (land, labour,  c a p i t a l ) t o be  a l l o c a t e d t o the f o r e s t r y s e c t o r . 3.20  Forecasting 3.21  Techniques  Methodologies  Techniques f o r f o r e c a s t i n g range from very econometric techniques to e x t r a p o l a t i o n s . of technique depends on, among other involved.  complex  The c h o i c e  t h i n g s , the c o s t s  F o r example, e x t r a p o l a t i o n s may be c r e d i t a b l e  -42i f i t i s d e s i r a b l e t h a t forecast costs be kept down, based on an i m p l i c i t o r e x p l i c i t c o s t - b e n e f i t assessment.  Finally,  depending on the q u a l i t y o f data used, a p l a n n e r may  make  a s i n g l e value " p o i n t forecast ' , or ' " p r o b a b i l i t y f o r e c a s t ' 1  1  i f a l a r g e r degree o f u n c e r t a i n t y The  1  e x i s t s (McKillop,  econometric approach i n v o l v e s b u i l d i n g a  1971) . regression  model which seeks to e x p l a i n the dependent v a r i a b l e b e i n g studied be  i n terms of independent v a r i a b l e s whose l e v e l s  can  c o n t r o l l e d or p r e d i c t e d more r e a d i l y . Hummel and  Grayson  (1962) i n d i c a t e d t h a t the  future  demand f o r wood products i s l i k e l y to a l t e r w i t h changes in  (1) per. c a p i t a income,(2) p o p u l a t i o n ,  (3)  consumption  pattern^which i n t u r n depends on the technology o f use consumer t a s t e , and  and  (4) technology o f the wood u s i n g  i n d u s t r i e s which would a f f e c t the demand f o r wood i n the unprocessed form.  Whatever the v a r i a b l e s chosen f o r  c a r r y i n g out a f o r e c a s t , i t would be were r e a d i l y a v a i l a b l e and  desirable i f they  representative  of s o c i a l  economic development, have an acceptable degree o f national comparability, i n t o the  and  have been o r can be  f u t u r e on some o b j e c t i v e  In ; ae  study by FAO  ;  and inter-  projected  basis.  (1976a) o f the timber trends  p r o s p e c t s f o r Europe f o r the p e r i o d  1950-2000,  and  three  a l t e r n a t i v e approaches to f o r e c a s t i n g were suggested: .may  carry out a time-series  One  approach, a m a r k e t - o r i e n t e d  approach o r combinations o f both.  Two  i n d i c a t o r s were  used i n the time s e r i e s study: p o p u l a t i o n  and  GDP  (>GNP or  NMP). . A m a r k e t - o r i e n t e d approach  has t h r e e  requirements.  F i r s t l y , estimates are needed f o r v a r i o u s end-use o f f o r e s t products and a n a l y s i s of t h e i r economic, t e c h n i c a l and s o c i a l f a c t o r s which have determined  histori-  c a l t r e n d s , and secondly, judgement i n f o r e c a s t i n g these trends w i l l be e x t r a p o l a t e d i n the Finally,  how  future.  i t r e q u i r e s sound knowledge of markets f o r  f o r e s t products based on r e l i a b l e and statistics.  comprehensive  In the absence of the d e t a i l e d data r e -  q u i r e d by the m a r k e t - o r i e n t e d approach,  a time  series  a n a l y s i s w i l l be c a r r i e d out f o r Uganda w i t h some judgements on markets and end-uses as a refinement o f the f o r e c a s t .  A v a i l a b i l i t y o f data p e r m i t t i n g , a more  e l a b o r a t e s i m u l a t i o n model has been proposed by Nweke (19 77) .  Although the model was  o r i g i n a l l y intended f o r  N i g e r i a , i t i s s u i t a b l e f o r most LDCs w i t h s i m i l a r wood consumption p a t t e r n s .  Uganda i s one o f those c o u n t r i e s  where the model could.be a p p l i c a b l e . posed are those of Buongiorno  Other models pro-  (1977) and Gregory  (1966).  Although the f o r e c a s t s i n t h i s study w i l l i n d i c a t e consequences of p r o j e c t i o n s a t the macroeconomic (GDP  and p o p u l a t i o n ) , they w i l l be s u f f i c i e n t l y  aggregated  the  level dis-  ( i n t o fuelwood and c h a r c o a l , p o l e s and p o s t s ,  sawnwood and  s l e e p e r s , woodbased panels and paper  and  paperboard) to a l l o w f o r e s t i m a t i o n of roundwood r e quirements  by end-uses.  The u l t i m a t e aim of t h i s  thesis  -44-  i s to i d e n t i f y optimum p r o d u c t - o r i e n t e d i n t e n s i v e management models and these d i s a g g r e g a t i o n s d e f i n e the product groups adequately. In f o r e c a s t i n g p o t e n t i a l consumption o f the f i v e product groups, GDP and p o p u l a t i o n have the g r e a t e s t influence.  F o r a l l products a f u n c t i o n o f the form  below, w i t h a p p r o p r i a t e l a g g i n g f o r i n i t i a l l e v e l , was adopted and p o s t s ,  f o r fuelwood  consumption  and c h a r c o a l and poles  C. = f . (P,G,E.) 3 3 3  where 3 Cj = consumption o f product j ('000 m ); P  = p o p u l a t i o n ('000 people; and  G  and  = gross domestic product ( m i l l i o n Uganda s h i l l i n g s a t 1966 p r i c e s ) . E . = e r r o r term 3  P o t e n t i a l consumption o f sawnwood and s l e e p e r s , woodbased panels and paper and paperboard was f o r e c a s t u s i n g the  function,  where  C . = p e r 1000 c a p i t a consumption o f ^ product j ; and Y  3.22  = per 1000 c a p i t a gross domestic product i n year t based on 1966 prices.  E s t i m a t i o n o f Future Values o f Independent V a r i a b l e s T h i s f o r e c a s t i s intended t o cover the p e r i o d up to  the year 2000, with 1971 as the base year, chosen f o r convenience  of a n a l y s i s .  To the e x t e n t t h a t r e s u l t s o f  - 4 5 -  the  f o r e c a s t may  e s t a t e and  suggest changes i n c a p a c i t y of the  f o r e s t i n d u s t r i e s , i t i s a long-run model.  d e s c r i p t i o n s i n the and GDP)  forest  s e c t i o n s above, two  parameters  were s e l e c t e d as r e p r e s e n t a t i v e  p o l i t i c a l and  (population  of economic,  e c o l o g i c a l environment of Uganda.  From  social,  Because  the  f o r e c a s t i s make f o r p o t e n t i a l consumption, the p r i c e r e l a t i o n s h i p between wood and  wood products on the one  hand  t h e i r s u b s t i t u t e s on the o t h e r were assumed c o n s t a n t . c e r t a i n t y i n the  f u t u r e v a l u e s of the independent and  and  Undependent  v a r i a b l e s w i l l be accounted f o r through s e n s i t i v i t y a n a l y s i s . In the case of the medium and  of the 196 9 census showed the p o p u l a t i o n  9.504 m i l l i o n .  The  low,  of  government p r o j e c t i o n of popu-  l a t i o n growth to the year 2000 was The  (dependent v a r i a b l e s ) ,  h i g h estimates w i l l be made.  Results Uganda was  f o r e s t products  reported  on by FAO  (19 75) .  f i r s t p r o j e c t i o n based on a constant n a t u r a l r a t e of i n -  crease i s not  likely  h e a l t h s e r v i c e s and  to m a t e r i a l i z e i n view of the the i n c r e a s i n g awareness of the  of these s e r v i c e s by  the people.  The  expanding benefits  second p r o j e c t i o n  assumes an i n c r e a s i n g n a t u r a l r a t e of i n c r e a s e w h i l e the assumes a d e c l i n i n g r a t e . data on p o p u l a t i o n  I d e a l l y , b e s i d e s growth  should i n c l u d e r u r a l - u r b a n  age  group s t r u c t u r e , employment s t r u c t u r e and  and  net m i g r a t i o n .  be considered.  In t h i s study o n l y  f o r e s t products  t i o n of o t h e r p o p u l a t i o n forecast, population 13.  trends,  proportions, intra-country  the growth trends w i l l  I t i s b e l i e v e d the l a c k of d e t a i l i n the  a v a i l a b l e data on  Table  third  does not warrant  parameters.  considera-  Based on the government  data f o r t h i s f o r e c a s t are shown i n  -46-  TABLE The P o p u l a t i o n  13  o f Uganda P r o j e c t e d  YEAR  0  C o n s t a n t NRI  Increasing -million  *1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000  9 .504 9.808 10.122 10.446 10.780 11.125 11.481 11.848 12.227 12.618 13.022 13.439 1 3 . 869 14 .313 14.771 15.244 15.732 16 .235 16.754 17.290 17.843 18.414 19.003 19.611 20.239 20.887 21.555 22.245 22 .957 23.692 24 .450 25.232 NRI = N a t u r a l  Source:  t o the Year N NRI  people-  9 . 504 9 .837 10 .181 10.537 10.906 11.288 11.683 12.092 12.515 12.953 13.406 13.875 14-.402 14 .949 15 .517 16.107 16 .719 17.354 18.013 18.697 19 .407 30 .144 20.950 21.788 22.660 23.566 24.509 25.489 26 .509 27.569 28.672 29.819  2000  Increase _  and D e c l i n i n g NRI }  9.504 9 . 827 10.161 10.506 10.863 11.232 11.614 12.009 12.417 12.839 13 .276 13.727 14 .070 14 .422 14 .783 15 .153 15 .532 15 .920 16 .318 16 .726 17 .144 17 .573 17.837 18.105 18 . 377 18.653 18.933 19.217 19.505 19 . 798 20.095 20.396  rate of increase  P r o j e c t i o n b a s e d o n t h e 1969 c e n s u s d a t a o f 9.504 m i l l i o n p e o p l e ; and growth r a t e s b a s e d on government p r o j e c t i o n s as r e p o r t e d b y FAO ( 1 9 7 5 ) .  (*)  The  GDP  o f Uganda expressed  at 1966  prices  and  i t s growth trends were d i s c u s s e d i n Chapter Two.  The  medium compound annual r a t e of growth i s assumed a t 7 percent,  and  respectively.  low and high estimates Based on a GDP  Uganda s h i l l i n g s i n 1971, year 2000 and  o f 4 and  10  percent,  value of 7492 m i l l i o n  p r o j e c t i o n s were made to the  shown i n Table  14.  I t i s f u r t h e r assumed,  t h a t though p o s s i b l e i n the s h o r t - r u n , a zero r a t e o f growth i n GDP  i s u n l i k e l y i n the long-run.  of g r e a t e r accuracy,  For purposes  the n a t i o n a l per c a p i t a GDP  be obtained by summing the weighted  (using r e g i o n a l ,  d i s t r i c t or p r o v i n c i a l p r o p o r t i o n s o f t o t a l GDP  values.  T h i s way  i n per c a p i t a GDP  should  population)  account w i l l be taken of d i s p a r i t i e s  on., a r e g i o n a l  s c a l e , and  thus  ;  e l i m i n a t e some o f the e r r o r a s s o c i a t e d with o m i t t i n g e f f e c t of d i s t r i b u t i o n of income. flaw, i t i s important i n f l u e n c e GDP  the  In a d d i t i o n to t h i s  to r e a l i z e t h a t key  i n c l u d e p o p u l a t i o n and  factors that  employment trends,  labour and c a p i t a l p r o d u c t i v i t y ( f a c t o r i n t e n s i t y ) ; and a p p l i c a t i o n o f s c i e n c e and  technology  ( r e s e a r c h arid  development). The  o p e r a t i o n o f market f o r c e s i s determined by  i n f l a t i o n a r y pressure.  For example c o n f l i c t s a r i s e between  consumption o f more goods by the p u b l i c and p r i v a t e s e c t o r s l e a d i n g to c o n f l i c t s with p r o d u c t i o n p o s s i b i l i t i e s which are governed by the a v a i l a b i l i t y of i n p u t s capital).  T h i s then would induce  (labour  government to use  and policies  - 4 8 -  TABLE  . -  Uganda's GDP  YEAR  14.  (at1  GROSS Pessimistic  9 6 6  prices) projected  DOMESTIC ( 4 % )  to the'year  PRODUCT  Probable  ( 7 % )  Optimistic  7492  1972  7792  8 0 1 6  8 2 4 1  1973  8104  8 5 7 7  9 0 6 5  1974  8428  9177  1975  8765  9819  10969  1976  9116  10506  1 2 0 6 6  9 4 8 1  1 1 2 4 1  1 3 2 7 3  1978  9860  12028  1 4 6 0 0  1979  1 0 2 5 4  1 2 8 7 0  1 6 0 6 0  1980  1 0 6 6 4  1 3 7 7 1  1 7 6 6 6  1 9 8 1  1 1 0 9 1  1 4 7 3 5  1 9 4 3 3  1982  1 1 5 3 5  15776  21376  1983  11996  1 6 8 8 0  2 3 5 1 4  1984  12476  1 8 0 6 2  2 5 8 6 5  1985  1 2 9 7 5  19326  2 8 4 5 2  1986  1 3 4 9 4  20679  3 1 2 9 7  1987  1 4 0 3 4  2 2 1 2 7  3 4 4 2 7  1977  9972  23676  3 7 8 7 0  1989  1 5 1 7 9  2 5 3 3 3  4 1 6 5 7  1990  15786  27106  4 5 8 2 3  1 9 9 1  1 6 4 1 7  2 9 0 0 3  5 0 4 0 5  17074  3 1 0 3 3  5 5 4 4 6  1 7 7 5 7  33205  6 0 9 9 1  1 8 4 6 7  35529  6 7 0 9 0  1995  19206  38 016  73799  1996  19974  4 0 6 7 7  81179  2 0 7 7 3  4 3 5 2 4  8 9 2 9 7  21604  4 6 5 7 1  9 8 2 2 7  1999  22468  4 9 8 3 1  1 0 8 0 5 0  2000  2 3 3 6 7  5 3 3 1 9  1 1 8 8 5 5  "  1 9 9 3 1994  1997 1998  Source:  .  1.,  2.  1 4 5 9 5  .'The'GDP-value o f U . s h s . FAO  .(10%)  7492  7492  1 9 7 1  1992  :  shillings  (  1988  2000  7492  million  from  ( 1 9 7 5 ) .  P e r c e n t a g e s i n parenthesis r e f e r r a t e s o f g r o w t h o f GDP.  t o assumptions o f annual  -49-  s u c h a s : wage and p r i c e savings  controls,  towards f i n a n c i n g  reduction i n public  r e o r i e n t i n g household  of productive  spending.  investment or  The e s s e n t i a l  thing  make w h a t e v e r method i s u s e d more e f f e c t i v e ; g r o w t h i n GDP (FAO,  will  1976a) .  anticipated government  g r o w t h r a t e s o f GDP fiscal  and m o n e t a r y  t h a t methods u s e d w i l l  be  A  the  depend  on  forecast of  i n the long-run  assumes  effective.  3.30  FUTURE CONSUMPTION OF FOREST PRODUCTS  3.31  F u e l w o o d and general,  measures  affect  i n Uganda w i l l policies.  a minimum 4 p e r c e n t g r o w t h r a t e  In  otherwise,  be c u r b e d by a n t i - i n f l a t i o n a r y  The e x t e n t t o w h i c h t h i s w i l l  i s to  Charcoal  i t i s true  t h a t LCDs r e l y  upon  renewable  s o u r c e s o f e n e r g y , b u t MCDs have b e e n t h e w o r l d ' s m a j o r consumer a  of f i n i t e  fuel  resources.  current concern over a n t i c i p a t e d  E v e n i n MDCs, t h e r e i s s c a r c i t y of  fossil  f u e l s and t h u s a r e o r i e n t a t i o n o f t h o u g h t t o w a r d s able  resources  generally control  (wood  recognized  over i t s f u e l  mately, a h a l t  included)  that a country  s h o u l d have  t o economic development c o u l d sources of energy.  t o development, b u t t h a t  processes are i n t r i c a t e l y the f u e l  the g l o b a l  able resources,  there w i l l  be  ulti-  result  from  This  i s not  automatically  production  l i n k e d with energy.  supply w i t h i n a country  It is  better  since  s u g g e s t t h a t e n e r g y , once a v a i l a b l e , w i l l  lead  of  supply.  and power r e s o u r c e s ,  lack of r e a d i l y available to  f o r future  renew-  I f part  i s f o u n d e d on  renew-  l e s s danger o f economic  growth  -50being c u r t a i l e d by a sudden r i s e i n the p r i c e of  imported  f u e l or the d e p l e t i o n of an indigenous resource  (Earl,  1975) . Few  m a t e r i a l s found on e a r t h can be used f o r as  many and v a r i e d purposes  as wood.  I t i s a s o l i d fuel that  competes with peat, c o a l , coke, and l i q u i d and gas  fuels.  Whether i t i s a q u e s t i o n of e x p l o i t i n g the source of energy  represented by fuelwood  or of h e l p i n g i t r e t a i n  i t s p l a c e i n c o m p e t i t i o n w i t h the other f u e l s or to employ i t e c o n o m i c a l l y and a t the same time conserve  the  f o r e s t s , the problem i n the f i n a l a n a l y s i s i s the same, namely, t o use the h e a t i n g power of wood to the utmost (FAO,  1958) . I t i s b e l i e v e d over 90 p e r c e n t of t o t a l roundwood  removals i n most LDCs i s i n the form o f fuelwood charcoal  ( E a r l , 1975).  estimate of fuelwood Forests.  In Uganda the o n l y a c c u r a t e  p r o d u c t i o n i s t h a t from S t a t e  I t i s extremely  d i f f i c u l t to determine  any degree of accuracy, the removal of fuelwood savanna woodlands.  and  Although FAO  with from  data on fuelwood  and  c h a r c o a l consumption are a v a i l a b l e , they are o n l y u s e f u l f o r i n d i c a t i n g g l o b a l trends i n the use of f o r e s t and of l i t t l e  energy  use f o r i n d i v i d u a l country s t u d i e s .  O r i g i n a l l y , i n s i g n i f i c a n t q u a n t i t i e s of wood c h a r c o a l were u t i l i z e d by r u r a l b l a c k s m i t h s i n Uganda. commercial p r o d u c t i o n of c h a r c o a l was  The  i n i t i a t e d by  the  F o r e s t Department i n the m i d - s i x t i e s . existed for t h i s : operation  Two  reasons  (1) c h a r c o a l b u r n i n g as a "'cleaning ' 0  i n enrichment p l a n t i n g programmes o f the f o r e s t s  o f south west Mengo (Buganda), and (wood p r o v i d e d  a t nominal p r i c e )  (2) as a s o c i a l  from woodlands c l e a r e d  f o r a f f o r e s t a t i o n with e x o t i c t r e e s p e c i e s . development and  service  adoption o f p o r t a b l e  With  s t e e l and  the  Missouri  k i l n s , the F o r e s t Department became i n c r e a s i n g l y i n v o l v e d i n the commercial p r o d u c t i o n Lockwood C o n s u l t a n t s  Ltd.  of c h a r c o a l .  According  to  (1973),  "Charcoal p r o d u c t i o n on a s i z a b l e , o r g a n i z e d b a s i s i s a f a i r l y recent development i n Uganda, where i t s growth has been prompted by v a r i o u s F o r e s t Department e f f o r t s ".  There i s no charcoal. charcoal  s i g n i f i c a n t e x t e r n a l trade  Apart from small q u a n t i t i e s o f imported from Kenya, Uganda has  s e l f - s u f f i c i e n t , with production percent  o f consumption  (v .Table  been mainly f o r over  I t has  urbanization  99  been argued  t h a t as a country develops, w i t h i n c r e a s i n g r e a l per income and  capita  (an i n d i c a t o r o f the degree o f  " m o d e r n i z a t i o n " o f the economy), the income e l a s t i c i t y demand f o r fuelwood and (19 71)  c h a r c o a l becomes n e g a t i v e .  suggested t h a t fuelwood consumption may  as a f u n c t i o n o f income.  and  industrial  accounting 15a).  i n fuelwood  Therefore,  one  may  be  of  Leslie  expressed  assume t h a t  so long as r e a l per c a p i t a income i n c r e a s e s and  is  redistributed  i n a s o c i a l l y o p t i m a l manner, the p e r  c a p i t a consumption  of. fuelWood-.' w i l l d e c l i n e .  there are reasons t o b e l i e v e  However,  t h a t the d i s p o s i t i o n o f  fuelwodd . as a source o f energy i s not s o l e l y  governed  by p e r c a p i t a income alone, but a l s o by s o c i a l customs and t r a d i t i o n and the extent t o which sources o f energy a r e r e a d i l y  alternative  available.  TABLE 15a P r o d u c t i o n and Consumption o f Fuel-wood and C h a r c o a l i n Uganda  Year  (  PRODUCTION  ,  t  -.CONSUMPTION  0 0 0  M  ,  J  j  CONSUMPTION PRODUCTION  ,—  %  1961  9912  9918  99.9  1962  10500  10503  100.0  1963  10800  10801  100.0  1964  11050  11063  99.0  1965  11300  11406  99.1  1966  11600  11691  99.2  1967  11900  12025  99 .0  1968  12200  12285  99. 3  1969  12500  12580  99.4  1970  12900  12970  99.5  1971  13200  13246  99.7  1972  13600  13640  99.7  1973  13600  13614  99.9  1974  13600  13605  100.0  Source:  1  FAO Yearbook o f F o r e s t Products  (1972  and 1 9 7 5 ) .  The  above, f a c t o r s i n f l u e n c e the consumption o f c h a r c o a l  too and, i n a d d i t i o n , three others are worth c o n s i d e r i n g . First,  the m i n e r a l  p o t e n t i a l s o f most LDCs i n c l u d i n g  Uganda are not y e t f u l l y known.  I f iron i s discovered,  c h a r c o a l may be used d u r i n g the smelting process absence o f cheap and e a s i l y a v a i l a b l e c o a l . t a b l i s h e d e u c a l y p t p l a n t a t i o n s to support  i n the  Brazil es-  i t s i r o n and  s t e e l i n d u s t r y ; and i n Uganda, the cement i n d u s t r y has c r e a t e d an a d d i t i o n a l requirement f o r c h a r c o a l .  Second,  i n p u r s u i t o f r a p i d economic development, LDCs a r e expanding t h e i r i n d u s t r i a l base.  Some o f these i n d u s t r i e s  such as the s a l t d r y i n g p r o j e c t i n Uganda ( c o n s t r u c t i o n of s a l t p l a n t i n progress) and a g r o - i n d u s t r i e s  (tobacco,  tea a n d sugar r e f i n e r y ) a l l r e q u i r e c h a r c o a l i n the p r i mary p r o c e s s i n g phase, i f cheaper a l t e r n a t i v e s a r e not available.  F i n a l l y , one may s a f e l y assume t h a t consumption  of c h a r c o a l i n MDCs w i l l i n c r e a s e , although perhaps i n s i g n i f i c a n t l y on a per c a p i t a b a s i s .  Such trends  e a s i l y be brought about by the concern f o r a c l e a n  could environ-  ment ( c h a r c o a l as a p u r i f i e r o f a i r and water) and energy conservation.  F o r example, A f r i c a exported  (mostly t o  Europe) 100,000 tonnes o f c h a r c o a l i n 1969 compared to 800 i n 1954. T h i s r e p r e s e n t s  a 1150 percent  i n c r e a s e i n 15  years, and an average annual increment o f 6133 tonnes f o r the p e r i o d  (FAO, 1970b).  S e v e r a l s t u d i e s o f p r o j e c t i o n s o f f u t u r e consumption of fuelwood and c h a r c o a l have been c a r r i e d out f o r o t h e r regions o f the world.  According  to E a r l  (19 75), to be  -54-  t e c h n i c a l l y c o r r e c t , demand (and supply) f o r e c a s t s  should  be expressed i n p r i c e - q u a n t i t y r e l a t i o n s h i p s e i t h e r as demand schedules, demand curves, o r demand  functions.  The f o r e c a s t s should i n c l u d e c o n s i d e r a t i o n s  f o r probable  f u t u r e t o t a l energy consumption o f a r e g i o n , the p r e d i c t e d p r i c e o f a l t e r n a t i v e f u e l s , and the l i k e l y demand f o r f o r e s t f u e l a t a p r i c e h i g h enough t o j u s t i f y making an investment. population  Since i n LDCs, the r e l a t i o n s h i p between growth r a t e and growth i n fuel-wood consumption  i s almost l i n e a r f o r purposes o f broad-term f o r e c a s t s , there i s no need f o r the above t e c h n i c a l Nweke (19 77) would grow a t 1.3 for Nigeria. projections  correctness.  f o r e c a s t the consumption o f fuelwood percent p e r annum f o r the p e r i o d  Enabor  (1971)  1975-90  on the o t h e r hand based h i s  f o r N i g e r i a on the assumption t h a t per c a p i t a  annual consumption would be somewhere between 0 . 8 3 and 3  0.65 m .  In a f o r e c a s t f o r fuelwood consumption i n Kenya,  FAO (19 70a) observed t h a t given the massive dependence o f the r u r a l p o p u l a t i o n • o n wood as the p r i n c i p a l f u e l , i t would appear t h a t there w i l l c o n t i n u e t o be a r a p i d l y i n c r e a s i n g demand f o r fuelwood.  The study assumed the p e r  c a p i t a consumption would remain unchanged (because o f s u b s t i t u t e s e n t e r i n g r a t e o f 1% between 1 9 8 0 and 2 0 0 0 .  u n t i l 19 80 and  the market) d e c l i n e a t a In a f o r e c a s t o f f u t u r e  demand f o r fuelwood i n Tanzania, Openshaw ( 1 9 7 1 ) a use f a c t o r f o r the degree o f u r b a n i z a t i o n  included  (because o f the  wide d i f f e r e n c e between per c a p i t a cash income i n urban  -55-  and r u r a l a r e a s ) .  He  e s t i m a t e d a mean income e l a s t i c i t y  o f demand f o r fuelwood  of  10.  F o r Uganda, a f t e r s e v e r a l t r i a l s o f v a r i o u s f u n c t i o n s , the b e t t e r ones were: (1)  C  t  915 .245  =  + 1.0786 P  (2)  iogc  (3)  c  (4)  log C = - 0.2251 +  t  = 0 .969 + 0.868 log P  t  2  2  ;  2  1.049 log P  t  2 R = 0.9947; SE = 85.57  0.1159 G ;  + 0.052 log G ; R u r  443 .685 + 1.3 P  -  =  +  fc  r  = 0.9948-;  SE = 0.007  = 0.9885. ; SE = 119.2 = 0.9885 ;  SE = 0.0112  where C  t  = consumption i n '000  P  t  = p o p u l a t i o n ('000  G  = t  g r o s s domestic  subscript Equation  c u b i c metres (Source: Table  of people)  product  (Source: Table  15)  13)  ( m i l l i o n Uganda s h i l l i n g s ) (Source: Table 14).  t r e f e r s to y e a r .  (1) was  chosen f o r subsequent f o r e c a s t i n g and  r e s u l t s shown i n Table 15b. p e r c e n t change i n GDP  was  From E q u a t i o n  (2), a  a s s o c i a t e d w i t h a 1.00  0.05 percent  change i n consumption, g i v i n g an income e l a s t i c i t y consumption o f fuel-"\vOod of 20,  double  the  of  t h a t f o r Tanzania.  A t l e a s t up to the year 2000, t h e r e i s no need f o r consumption of c h a r c o a l and  fuelwood  to d e c l i n e .  If  a n y t h i n g , the demand f o r c h a r c o a l i n i n d u s t r i a l and house-, h o l d uses w i l l i n c r e a s e .  The p r o j e c t i o n s o f Lockwood  C o n s u l t a n t s L t d . (1973) i n d i c a t e d a 14 m i l l i o n m l e v e l f o r fuelwood  and  3  c h a r c o a l by the year 2000.  consumption My  f o r e c a s t i n d i c a t e s t h i s value i s l e s s than a l t e r n a t i v e the lower bound o f the f o r e c a s t .  A,  D i f f e r e n c e s c o u l d have  -56-  TABLE 15ti P r o j e c t i o n o f Future Consumption o f Fuelwood and C h a r c o a l to the Year 2 000  Year  A (  L  T  E  A*  R  N B* -000 m  A  T  I  V  E  C*  12743  12765  12765  1975  14458  14655  14788  1980  16957  17477  17928  1985  19172  21188  22246  1990  21699  25784  27953  1995  23562  31757  35904  2000  25623  39258  46853  In t h i s Chapter these a l t e r n a t i v e s represent A  the f o l l o w i n g  S  3  1971  *  i n Uganda  )  A ( L O W ) / (Medium ) and C( High ), B  - 4% growth r a t e of GDP, and a f i r s t i n c r e a s i n g and then d e c l i n i n g p o p u l a t i o n growth r a t e - (low)  B - 7% growth r a t e o f GDP, and an i n c r e a s i n g p o p u l a t i o n r a t e . (medium)  growth  C - 10% growth r a t e o f GDP, and assumption o f p o p u l a t i o n i n (B)(high) Source:  Tables 13, 14 and 15«-and expressed as a f u n c t i o n i n Equation (1) above.  as  -57a r i s e n from assumptions about p o p u l a t i o n and GDP  growth  rates. 3.32  Poles and  Posts  Most of the problem a s s o c i a t e d with raw a v a i l a b i l i t y and  material  l a c k of accurate data on consumption of  posts and p o l e s are s i m i l a r to t h a t of fuelwood charcoal.  A g r e a t e r p r o p o r t i o n o f roundwood removals  f o r b u i l d i n g and  fence posts takes p l a c e o u t s i d e s t a t e  f o r e s t s , i n the r u r a l areas. and  and  c h a r c o a l , product  However, u n l i k e fuelwood  q u a l i t y f o r p o l e s and posts ( i n  terms o f s i z e , shape and d u r a b i l i t y ) i s very  specific.  O r i g i n a l l y , t r o p i c a l high f o r e s t s , r i p a r i a n f o r e s t s and  f a i r l y w e l l stocked  sources  savanna woodlands were the main  of b u i l d i n g p o l e s f o r the r u r a l people.  i n c r e a s e s i n p o p u l a t i o n and  the p r a c t i c e of  With  shifting  c u l t i v a t i o n and w i l d f i r e s , s u i t a b l e raw m a t e r i a l i s being depleted.  Savanna woodlands now  c o n s t i t u t e the major  source of b u i l d i n g p o l e s . The Uganda F o r e s t Department r e a l i z e d t h i s trend and  i n a d d i t i o n to i t s own  e f f o r t s , i s encouraging  farmers to e s t a b l i s h t h e i r own wood i n c l u d e d ) .  The  A c a c i a and C a s s i a .  pole p l a n t a t i o n s  p r i n c i p a l s p e c i e s are Apart  t e l e g r a p h i c and  Eucalyptus  from b u i l d i n g p o l e s , a  amount of departmental e f f o r t was  devoted  transmission poles.  demand f o r f e n c i n g posts has  (fuel-  to  fair  producing  Most r e c e n t l y , the  evolved and  i s expected to  i n c r e a s e i n the l i g h t of c u r r e n t government p o l i c y of  -58-  "Double P r o d u c t i o n " i n a g r i c u l t u r e , with a g r e a t e r emphasis given t o c a t t l e B u i l d i n g requirements  ranching. f o r p o l e s a r e the r e s u l t  of t r a d i t i o n a l ways of c o n s t r u c t i n g g r a s s - t h a t c h e d huts t h a t are square,  r e c t a n g u l a r o r round.  mud  The frame-  work of the w a l l s and the r o o f t r u s s e s a l l c o n s i s t of poles. one  In r e g i o n s such as Uganda where t e r m i t e s abound,  of the d e s i r e d c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of b u i l d i n g p o l e s i s  their durability.  In a study conducted by the F o r e s t  Department i n 1947, i t was found  t h a t most of the f a s t  growing e x o t i c softwoods and hardwoods were non-durable and were c l a s s i f i e d as " p e r i s h a b l e " t o "very p e r i s h a b l e " ( f o r example Gmelina and some e u c a l y p t s ) .  A  remedial  a c t i o n , e s p e c i a l l y f o r fence posts and t r a n s m i s s i o n p o l e s , i s to t r e a t them with p r e s e r v a t i v e s . (1964) showed t h a t the "sap displacement" the chemical  Plumptre  method u s i n g  "Celcure" was o n e - t h i r d cheaper than  either  the simple brush a p p l i c a t i o n o f c r e o s o t e on the p o l e s , or any o f the pressure tank methods.  Another i n c r e a s i n g  use of p o l e s i s i n the b u i l d i n g i n d u s t r y as s c a f f o l d i n g i n the. c o n s t r u c t i o n of concrete houses. Up t o 194 8, Uganda's requirements poles were met through imports, mostly Towards the completion  f o r transmission from South A f r i c a .  o f the Owen F a l l s Dam, p o s s i b l e  s u b s t i t u t i o n of l o c a l l y grown e u c a l y p t p o l e s f o r imports  -59was  evaluated.  The  r e s u l t s were a f f i r m a t i v e ,  but  q u a l i t y r e s t r i c t i o n s p l a c e d on the p o l e s were extreme and r e q u i r e d s l i g h t l y d i f f e r e n t s i l v i c u l t u r a l  treat-  ments . As mentioned p r e v i o u s l y , the a b s o l u t e q u a n t i t y of p o l e s and posts consumed i n Uganda i s d i f f i c u l t  to  determine a c c u r a t e l y , s i n c e most of the consumption takes p l a c e i n the r u r a l areas and i s unrecorded estimate i s shown i n Table 16). (1971),  (an  A c c o r d i n g to Enabor  f u t u r e consumption o f p o l e s i n N i g e r i a w i l l  depend on the a v a i l a b i l i t y and. the degree to which wood can h o l d i t s p l a c e a g a i n s t competing s u b s t i t u t e s , e s p e c i a l l y concrete and  steel.  mated a compound annual  r a t e of growth i n consumption  of p o l e s equal to 4.0  Nierkerk  (1974) e s t i -  percent and assumed t h i s t r e n d  would continue f o r South A f r i c a .  In Kenya, consumption  trends were assumed to be s i m i l a r to fuelwood and coal.  char-  A dominant f a c t o r c o n t r i b u t i n g to i n c r e a s e s i n  f u t u r e consumption of p o l e s may  be expansion  of the  g e n e r a t i o n and d i s t r i b u t i o n of power, together w i t h f u r t h e r e x t e n s i o n of telephone  services.  On the o t h e r  hand, i f the p o l e s i n use were t r e a t e d w i t h p r e s e r v a t i v e s o r i g i n a l l y , annual less.  replacements  should  be  Consumption of poles and posts i n Uganda i s ex-  pected to i n c r e a s e .  S u i t a b l e f u n c t i o n s f o r use i n pro-  j e c t i n g f u t u r e consumption of p o l e s and p o s t s based on  -60consumption data i n Table 16, p o p u l a t i o n data i n Table 13 and gross domestic product data i n Table 14, were 1) C = 102.86 + 0.07325 P + 0.0051 G t  2)  log C  3) c 4)  fc  t  C, t  2  = -1.5 + 0.877 log P. + 0.022 log G ; R = 0.9905; SE = 0.009 2  = 43.2559 + 0.083 P  log C  ; R = 0.9889 ; SE = 7.949  t  : r = 0.9859; SE = 8.423 2  fc  = 11.9978 + 0.9522 log P = consumption p o l e s i n '000 M 3  V  ; r = 0.0886; SE = 0.009 2  t  and-posts  Terms as expressed above f o r fuelwood  and c h a r c o a l .  -61-  TABLE 16 P r o d u c t i o n , trade and consumption of p o l e s and posts i n Uganda* A  Year  P r o d u c t i o n and Consumption  1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974  *  665 700 720 735 755 775 795 815 835 855 884 913 905** 905  data r e f e r s t o "Other I n d u s t r i a l Roundwood" which i n the case of Uganda, i s a f a i r approximation f o r p r o d u c t i o n , trade and consumption o f p o l e s and p o s t s .  ** an . estimate Source:  FAO Yearbook o f F o r e s t Products 1963-74  1962-72 and  1  -  there was some trade (imports and exports) b u t the q u a n t i t i e s traded were very s m a l l , t h e r e f o r e , omitted from the data source.  2  -  the s e l f - s u f f i c i e n c y index 3 (= consumption/ p r o d u c t i o n x 100%) i n t h i s case i s 100%.  Equation  (1)  was  s e l e c t e d as the b a s i s f o r p r o j e c t i o n of  f u t u r e consumption v a l u e s .  Equation  (2)  shows  a 0.8 8  p e r c e n t change i n p o p u l a t i o n or a 0 . 2 p e r c e n t change i n GDP  i s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h a 1.0  percent change i n consumption.  The p r o j e c t e d values were higher compared to estimates by Lockwood C o n s u l t a n t s L t d ( 1 9 7 3 )  and are shown i n Table  17.  3.33  Sawnwood and  Sleepers  Sawnwood i s t e c h n o l o g i c a l l y the s i m p l e s t of the processed wood products and the one w i t h the l o n g e s t h i s t o r y of use.  I t i s t r u e to say t h a t i n the f o r m u l a t i o n  o f f o r e s t p o l i c y , the major i n d u s t r i a l product i n Uganda was  sawnwood to meet m i l i t a r y requirements  the Second World War.  Sawnwood was  some i s from  (pines and cypress) p l a n t a t i o n c r o p s .  By the  o f t h i s century, u t i l i z a t i o n o f the l a t t e r group o f m a t e r i a l i s expected  during  o r i g i n a l l y produced  from t r o p i c a l hardwood s p e c i e s , and now, softwood  considered  end  raw  to i n c r e a s e very s i g n i f i c a n t l y .  There  e x i s t s a number of problems a s s o c i a t e d w i t h p r o d u c t i o n u t i l i z a t i o n o f sawnwood.  and  The p r o d u c t i o n problems i n c l u d e ,  the k i n d of raw m a t e r i a l a v a i l a b l e and i t s procurement  and  milling. The  number of sawmills i n Uganda i n c r e a s e d from 24  i n 1946 to 40 i n 1 9 5 4 ,  and  then decreased  T h e i r l o c a t i o n s are i n most cases Besides l o c a t i o n , another  to 37 by 1 9 7 3 .  raw-material-oriented.  important  f a c t o r i s the s i z e of  sawmills.', A c c o r d i n g to Brown and B e t h e l l  (1958),  -63-  TABLE  1?  P r o j e c t i o n of Future  Consumption o f P o l e s and P o s t s t o t h e Y e a r 2000  Year  A  L LOW  E  R  N  A  i n Uganda  I  V HIGH  MEDIUM '000 m~  1971  885  887  887  1975  998  1009  1014  1980  1163  1189  1209  1985  1306  1426  1472  1990  1470  1716  1811  1995  1587  2091  2273  2000  1716  2558  2891  Source:  T a b l e s 13, 14 and 16 and e x p r e s s e d e q u a t i o n (1) a b o v e .  as a f u n c t i o n i n  E  -64-  "There i s probably no o t h e r i n d u s t r y t h a t has a g r e a t e r spread i n f i n a n c i a l investment between the l a r g e s t and s m a l l e s t manufacturing u n i t s producing e s s e n t i a l l y the same f i n a l product".  The  s i z e s of sawmills i n Uganda range from l e s s than 3  to over 9000  m  Table IB  500  annual c a p a c i t y .  shows p r o d u c t i o n and consumption t r e n d s f o r  sawnwood i n E a s t A f r i c a .  Uganda's p r o d u c t i o n i n c r e a s e d 3  from 4 0 t o 86 thousand an average  m  compound annual  between 1961  and 19 74  giving  r a t e o f growth o f 6.0  percent.  On the o t h e r hand consumption i n c r e a s e d a t a f a s t e r r a t e of 7.0  percent.  p r o d u c t i o n was  Except  f o r the p e r i o d 1967  i n excess o f domestic  s u r p l u s exported.  produced  1971,  consumption and  However, i t i s worth mentioning  the above s t a t i s t i c s r e f e r consumption.  to  Evidence  that  t o r e c o r d e d p r o d u c t i o n and  suggests tha-t most of the sawnwood  by handsawyers and consumed i n the r u r a l  escaped' r e c o r d .  the  If included  areas  i t c o u l d e a s i l y show a con-  sumption l e v e l over 50 percent h i g h e r  (FAO,  1970) .  In Uganda, the major end-use f o r sawnwood i s the c o n s t r u c t i o n and b u i l d i n g i n d u s t r y . Ltd.  (1971)  usage i n 1969  Lockwood C o n s u l t a n t s  estimated t h a t about 70 p e r c e n t o f sawnwood was  accounted  f o r by the c o n s t r u c t i o n i n d u s t r y .  Other a p p l i c a t i o n s were f u r n i t u r e  (12%) , mining timbers  r a i l w a y s l e e p e r s ( 4 % ) , and m i s c e l l a n e o u s manufacturing These p r o p o r t i o n s are s t i l l  applicable. Since seven  (11%) (3%).  tenths  TABLE 1 8 / .  P r o d u c t i o n and Consumption o f , and S e l f - s u f f i c i e n c y T a n z a n i a a n d Ugandav (1961-74 )  i n Sawnwood f o r K e n y a ,  i;  Year  P. C (...'COM .. .) 3  13 %  C * 00M3...) (... P  East A f r i c a  Uganda  Tanzania  Kenya  6 %  C P '00M .. .) (... 3  C 00M ...) (...' P  %  3  0  1  1961.  50  43  1.16,3  101  90  112.2  40  34  1.17.6  191  167  114.4  1962  51  43  118.6  J03  97  106.2  28  26  107.7  182  166  109. 6  1963  60  50  1.20.0  105  97  108.2  35  33  106. 1  200  180  111. 1  1964  68  55  123.6  107  94  113.8  40  38  105.3  215  187  115.0  1965  82  63  130.2  109  96  .113.5  51  50  102.0  242  209  115.8  1966  71  58  .1.22.4  112  100  112.0  56  56  3.00.0  239  214  111.7  1967  87  75  116.0  117  110  106.4  66  68  97.1  270  2.53  106.7  1968  95  82  115.9  139  137  101.5  63  66  95.5  297  285  .104.2  1969  95  77  123.4  149  137  108.8  59  66  89.4  303  280  108.2  1970  83  66  125.8  161  149  108.1  65  68  95.6  309  283  109.2  1971  83  77  107.8  175  184  95.1  85  90  94.4  343  351  97.7  1972  85  78  109.0  191  190  100.5  75  73  •102.7  351  341  102.9  1973  104  95  109.5  191  187  102.1  32  28  114.3  327  310  105.5  1974  92  80  115.0  191  191  100.0  86  83  103.6  369  354  104.2  Source:  FAO, Forest Products Yearbook (1972 and 1974).  P  = production,  C = consumption, and 6 =  self-sufficiency coefficient,  P/C.  -66or more sawnwood i s u t i l i z e d i n c o n s t r u c t i o n and b u i l d i n g a c t i v i t y , an important v a r i a b l e t h a t w i l l i n fluence  the consumption o f sawnwood i s the r a t i o o f r u r a l  to urban p o p u l a t i o n  as shown i n Table 19.  The volume o f  c o n s t r u c t i o n wood used i n the r u r a l s e c t o r i s low mainly because o f preponderance o f use o f roundwood i n b u i l d i n g (FAO,  1967b).  The problems t h a t may be encountered i n  t r y i n g to improve sawnwood consumption i n r u r a l include,  areas  (1) the unfavourable p r i c e s o f sawnwood, (2)  d i f f i c u l t i e s o f t r a n s p o r t a t i o n t o remote areas,  and (3)  low purchasing power o f consumers (Enabor, 19 76) . Use  o f sawnwood i s i n t i m a t e l y a s s o c i a t e d w i t h the  building industry. other  Although i t was o r i g i n a l l y  thought  forms o f c o n s t r u c t i o n a c t i v i t y used l e s s sawnwood  than r e s i d e n t i a l housing, t h i s may not be e n t i r e l y Use  o f sawnwood i n concrete  formwork  true.  (shuttering) f o r  e r e c t i n g p u b l i c b u i l d i n g s and b r i d g e s  i s substantial.  Whereas i n some other p a r t s o f the world, use o f sawnwood i s intensive i n family dwellings,  t h i s i s not so i n Uganda.  Wooden houses have not been popular, d e s p i t e i n t e r e s t i n t h i s type o f houses to provide  increasing  cheap housing  f o r the low and middle income groups (Paterson, Possible  factors that  sumption  o f sawnwood  may  influence  i n buildings  1971).  f u t u r e con-  include:  t r a d i t i o n , a v a i l a b i l i t y o f s u i t a b l e timbers f o r b u i l d i n g , general  ignorance o f b u i l d e r s about the range o f b u i l d i n g  timbers a v a i l a b l e , l a c k o f i n n o v a t i o n  or appropriate  skills  -67-  TABLE 19. a)  Sawnwood C o n s u m p t i o n By E n d U s e C a t e g o r i e s  Sawnwood U s a g e i n K e n y a , T a n z a n i a  and Uganda,  Kenya  Total:  Africa  .1959-60  Tanzania  Uganda M  ( Public Sector Commerce & I n d u s t r y R u r a l A f r i c a n Households Urban Households!  i n East  '000  East  3  22.9 21.6 27.5 26.1  13.3 12.4 55.4 2J>  18.4 17.6 45.6 7.8  98.1  83.6  89.4  Africa )  54.6 51.6 128.5 36.4 271.1  1. I n c l u d e s h o u s i n g i n 3,600 n o n - A f r i c a n r u r a l h o l d i n g s i n K e n y a . F o r U g a n d a , h o u s i n g i n s m a l l towns, o t h e r t h a n t h e f i v e m a i n towns, i s g r o u p e d with r u r a l A f r i c a n households. b)  Distribution  o f Sawnwood U s a g e i n K e n y a , T a n z a n i a Kenya  Construction Rural Urban  Total: Per  Canita  57.9  53.4  170.7  9.0 15.6  17.6 5.4  20.8 9.0  46.5 30.0  24.6  22.1  29.8  76.5  Kenya (  Structural & Shuttering Joinery F u r n i t u r e & Other Uses Total: Urban  _ .M  and Uganda,  Uganda p e r 1,000  1959-60  Tanzania people  )  0.4 2.4 1_;_5  1.7 4.7 3A.  0.4 2.3 2^5  l±3  9^5  5.2  13.6 5.8 8 .A  29.8 9.7 9_J3  18.0  27.8  48.3  23.7  Households  Structural & Shuttering Joinery F u r n i t u r e & Other Uses Total: Source:  FAO  (1967).  Timber  Africa  82.0 88.7  Sawnwood U s a g e i n K e n y a , T a n z a n i a  R u r a l Households  East  24.9 28.5  ' 59.4  Furniture Rural Urban  Uganda  38.7 19.2  18.4 41.0 Total:.  c)  Tanzania  1950-60  and U g a n d a ,  T r e n d s and P r o s p e c t s  5.7  i n A f r i c a , pp.  50-51.  -68-  i n the b u i l d i n g i n d u s t r y , i n f l u e n c e o f psychology, a v a i l a b i l i t y and  i n c r e a s i n g consumption o f s u b s t i t u t e  m a t e r i a l s , e s p e c i a l l y s t e e l , cement, asbestos, plastics  (Enabor, 1972).  c o n t r i b u t o r to GDP. percent  Construction  Therefore,  growth r a t e s i n GDP  b u i l d i n g and  and  The  and  i s a major  f o r e c a s t o f 4,  7 and  implicitly indicate  other c o n s t r u c t i o n a c t i v i t y and,  sawnwood consumption.  glass  10  increased  therefore,  actual, amount o f sawnwood  consumed per c o n s t r u c t i o n u n i t , which i t s e l f i s a r e s u l t of technological innovation,  i s d i f f i c u l t to f o r e c a s t ^  but i t w i l l have a great i n f l u e n c e on q u a n t i t y of sawnwood consumed.  However, i t i s assumed here t h a t the r e l a t i o n s h i p  e s t a b l i s h e d between past sawnwood consumption and  GDP  will  prevail. O v e r a l l expansion of economic a c t i v i t y w i l l trade  and  d i s t r i b u t i o n and  enlarge the packaging s e c t o r . s i g n i f i c a n c e f o r an LDC i s to some extent  s a l e of goods and,  stimulate therefore,  T h i s i s of p a r t i c u l a r  l i k e Uganda whose development process  governed by e x p o r t s .  The  amount of  sawnwood consumed w i l l depend on the products to be d i s t r i b u t e d or traded and materials.  competition  But  i t is  of sawnwood w i t h other  safe to assume  packaging m a t e r i a l w i l l i n c r e a s e sawnwood by t h i s The  and  substitute  the demand f o r  so w i l l consumption of  sector.  f u r n i t u r e i n d u s t r y i s the  o f sawnwood a f t e r c o n s t r u c t i o n .  second l a r g e s t consumer  The  l e v e l of  activity  i n the f u r n i t u r e i n d u s t r y i s r e l a t e d to t h a t o f b u i l d i n g  a c t i v i t y and i n a d d i t i o n , the r a t e o f replacement o f worn-out f u r n i t u r e .  A possible trend  t h a t may take  place  i n Uganda would be the manufacture o f f u r n i t u r e ( e s p e c i a l l y t a b l e tops) u t i l i z i n g p a r t i c l e b o a r d grade veneers.  covered w i t h prime  I f t h i s o c c u r s , the amount o f sawnwood  per f u r n i t u r e u n i t may.decline.  However, the t o t a l  con-  sumption  o f sawnwood by the f u r n i t u r e i n d u s t r y may a c t u a l l y  increase  due t o expansion  As a b a s i s  i n demand.  for forecasting  f u t u r e consumption l e v e l s  of sawnwood, s e v e r a l r e l a t i o n s h i p s " w e r e  identified  u s i n g data from Tables 13, 14 and 19; and are shown below. (1)  log C = 2.34546 + 1.375 log C _ t  t  -1.446 Y _  3  t  3  + 0.957 log Y ;  = R = 0.232 ; SE = 0.349. 2  (2)  C  fc  = 9.328 + 1.483 C _ t  3  - 7.85 log Y _ t  3  +5.84 log Y ;  R = 0.307 ; SE, 2  =  (3)  C = 0.8675 + 0.008676 Y ; t  i.  6 8 3  .  P = 0,943 ; SE = 0.406 2  where 3 C = consumption per thousand t  capita i n m  Y-t= Gross domestic product per thousand Uganda s h i l l i n g s  c a p i t a i n '000  t = year. Equation  (3) was chosen  f o r the f o r e c a s t and the r e s u l t s  o b t a i n e d presented i n Table 20. 3.34  Wood-Based Panels In t h i s study, wood-based panels r e f e r to  veneers, plywood, p a r t i c l e b o a r d  and f i b r e b o a r d ,  and are i n  -70-  TABLE  20.  P r o j e c t i o n o f Future Consumption of Sawnwood and S l e e p e r s , i n Uganda to-the Year 20 00  Year  A LOW  L  T  E  R  N  A  T  I  MEDIUM  (  V  E  S  HIGH  -000 m  )  3  1971  65  65  65  1975  76  85  95  1980  93  119  153  1985  113  168  247  1990  137  235  398  1995  167  330  640  2000  203  463  1031  Source:  T a b l e s 13, 14 and 19 expressed i n Equation  (3) above.  -71agreement w i t h the d e f i n i t i o n given by the I n t e r n a t i o n a l C o n s u l t a t i o n on Plywood and  Other Wood Based Products  the Food and A g r i c u l t u r e O r g a n i z a t i o n of the U n i t e d There i s no Ugandan of fibreboard.  p r o d u c t i o n o f the v a r i o u s  Therefore  of Nations.  categories  p r o d u c t i o n o f plywood  and  p a r t i c l e b o a r d w i l l be d e s c r i b e d below. Plywood p r o d u c t i o n  i n Uganda began i n 1959  and 1976.,  remained a s i n g l e p l a n t - single owner o p e r a t i o n u n t i l Currently, there ownerships  i s a p l a n to e s t a b l i s h a veneer p l a n t .  ( f i r s t Sikh Sawmills,  Corporation)  and now  Two  The Wood I n d u s t r i e s -  have-been r e s p o n s i b l e f o r p r o c e s s i n g .  monopoly market s t r u c t u r e s i g n i f i e s l o s s of  A  efficiency  through r e d u c t i o n s i n consumer and producer s u r p l u s e s . Production  of plywood was  i n i t i a t e d not as a r e s u l t o f  general domestic consumer demand, nor  "war-induced" l i k e  sawnwood; the d e c i s i v e impetus came from the g r e a t i n t e a output  i n East A f r i c a .  Prefabricated tea  increase  chests  which o n l y need to be assembled by the t e a f a c t o r i e s  are  the c h i e f item i n the p r o d u c t i o n programme o f the plywood industry  (Oursin, 1970) .  Although a monopolist producer, the Wood I n d u s t r i e s Corporation  i s w i l l i n g to expand output  of s c a r c i t y of peeler logs.  The  f i r m does not a c t as a  t r u e monopolist t h e r e f o r e , because o f controlled prices.  but has a problem  institutionally  P h y s i c a l s c a r c i t y of peeler logs i s a  r e s u l t o f the high standards concerning weight and  r e q u i r e d by tea producers  t a i n t of t e a c h e s t s which l i m i t  the  -72number o f s u i t a b l e s p e c i e s  for peeling.  In a d d i t i o n t o p h y s i c a l and economic a v a i l a b i l i t y of wood raw m a t e r i a l ,  chemical raw m a t e r i a l s  are also  c r u c i a l l y important.  Where the l a t t e r are imported, as  i n Uganda, t h e i r i n f l u e n c e on p r o d u c t i o n o p e r a t i o n s through fluctuations i n quantities available by wood s c a r c i t y .  outweighs t h a t  induced  These chemicals are mainly r e s i n s and  wax s o l i d s and i n a d d i t i o n to the plywood i n d u s t r y , also a f f e c t particleboard production. the p r i c e - o f  the  increasing-rapidly.  chemicals  they  Since the o i l c r i s i s ,  ( s o l i d wax) has been  A c c o r d i n g to Dube (1977)  the r e a l p r i c e index o f phenol formaldehyde rose from 9 8.8 (1971=100) i n 1973 t o 168.7 i n 1975, g i v i n g an annual r a t e of i n c r e a s e  s l i g h t l y h i g h e r than 30 p e r c e n t .  have a c o n s i d e r a b l e  This  could  e f f e c t on the p r o d u c t i o n economics  o f p a r t i c l e b o a r d where percentage usage o f chemicals per u n i t o f output i s h i g h . Particleboard on raw m a t e r i a l  on the o t h e r hand, i s l e s s demanding  q u a l i t y and i n the absence o f wood can  u t i l i z e o t h e r sources o f f i b r o u s m a t e r i a l . wood-based i n d u s t r i e s p l a c e and  great  shape and f i b r e p r o p e r t i e s ,  p a r t i c l e b o a r d manufacturing. density  importance on l o g s i z e  these are unimportant i n  Of importance, are wood  and pH, ease o f c h i p p i n g  ( T u s t i n , 1968).  While o t h e r  and moisture content  P r o d u c t i o n o f hardwood  particleboard  i n Uganda began i n 1964,, as a means o f u t i l i z i n g waste.  By 1970, p r o d u c t i o n i n t h i s m i l l  sawmill  approximated  -7 32 157,170 m , about o n e - t h i r d the m i l l ' s  capacity  (Lockwood C o n s u l t a n t s L t d . , 1971). I t i s obvious from the above d e s c r i p t i o n p r o d u c t i o n o f wood-based  that  panels i n Uganda i s very r e c e n t .  T h i s i s e q u a l l y t r u e on the g l o b a l scene, r e l a t i v e t o sawnwood a t l e a s t .  The development o f world p r o d u c t i o n  has shown s u b s t a n t i a l growth f o r a l l p r o d u c t s , w i t h a much h i g h e r growth r a t e f o r p a r t i c l e b o a r d  •and a de-  c l i n i n g share o f f i b r e b o a r d p r o d u c t i o n  (FAO, 1976b) .  Table 21 shows p r o d u c t i o n of wood-based  panels i n Uganda  i n c r e a s e d from  3,000 to 9;000 • M3  between 1961  ,  and 1974, g i v i n g an average compound annual r a t e o f growth of 8.8 p e r c e n t .  On the o t h e r hand, consumption i n c r e a s e d 3 from 3,000-. to 11,00 0 M~ f o r the same p e r i o d , 3  r e a c h i n g a peak o f 17,000 m of wood-based  i n 1971.  Most o f the imports  panels c o n s i s t o f f i b r e b o a r d used as  i n s u l a t i o n material i n roof c e i l i n g s of r e s i d e n t i a l  build-  ings . Consumption o f wood-based  panels i s p o s i t i v e l y  c o r r e l a t e d w i t h per c a p i t a income.  FAO  (1976b)  reported  an apparent income e l a s t i c i t y o f consumption o f over 2 f o r North America and Japan, 2.5 f o r Europe and 4 or 5 f o r LDCs.  Apart from the a b s o l u t e l e v e l of income, consumption  a l s o v a r i e s w i t h income growth w i t h i n c o u n t r i e s . i n the same income group have s i m i l a r income  Countries  elasticities  and beyond a c e r t a i n l e v e l of income, s a t u r a t i o n o c c u r s . LDCs, Uganda i n c l u d e d , are s t i l l relationships.  f a r from such s a t u r a t i o n  TABLE  2 1 . P r o d u c t i o n , Consumption and S e l f - s u f f i c i e n c y i n Wood-based Panels f o r Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda , (1961-74)  Year  P  C '  (...'DOOM ) 3  C  3  P  7,  (... 'OOOM )  ;  East A f r i c a  Uganda  Tanzania  Kenya  3  6  F  C  %  (-.. 'OOOM ) 3  C  3  P  3  %  (... OOOM ) 3  %  3  3  100.0  3  8  37.5  50.0  5  5  100.0  6  11  54.5  2  50.0  3  4  75.0  5  11  45.5  3  4  75.0  3  4  75.0  6  14  42.9  6  3  8  37.5  3  8  37.5  6  22  27.3  196G  8  5  9  55.6  3  7  42.9  .8  24  33.3  1967  7  4  10  40.0  5  9  55.6  9  26 .  34.6  1968  .10  4  12  33.3  5  9  55.6  9  31  29.0  9  88.9  •14.  27  51.9  1  1961  4  .1962  ,S  1  2  1963  6  2  1964  6  1965  1969  2  10  20.0  4  8  50.0  <i  1970  2  11  18. 2  5  11  45.5  8  10  80.0  15  32  46.9  1971  2  13  23. 1  7  17  41.2  7  17  41.2  17  47  36.2  1972  4 .  11  36.4  10  10  100.0  3  8  100.0  22  29  75.9  1973  5  7  71.4  12  14- .  85.7  3  11  72.7  25  32  78.1  1974  10  7  142.8  12  15  80.0  9  11  81.8  3.1  33  93.9  P = Production,  Source:  FAO.  C •= Consumption, 0 = S e l f - s u f f i c i e n c y C o e f f i c i e n t = P_ C Yearbook of Forest Products  (1972 and 1974)  -^75F a c t o r s t h a t govern f u t u r e consumption o f woodbased panels i n Uganda i n c l u d e (1) s u b s t i t u t i o n o f sawnwood i n c o n s t r u c t i o n and packaging a c t i v i t y ; (2) p r i c e a t which woodrbase'.d panels w i l l be a v a i l a b l e t o o t h e r consumers i n s t e a d o f the t e a producers; (3) i n n o v a t i o n s i n the f u r n i t u r e i n d u s t r y ; and (4) s u b s t i t u t i o n o f plywood by paper and o t h e r c o n t a i n e r s i n the t e a exports sector.  Since the domestic markets f o r plywood and other  wood-based panels are s t i l l  i n t h e i r developmental  stage  and y e t , a l r e a d y , t h e r e i s evidence o f s c a r c i t y , i t would be reasonable t o assume an i n c r e a s e i n consumption f o r the future. A f o r e c a s t o f f u t u r e consumption o f wood-based panels was o b t a i n e d by t r y i n g s e v e r a l f u n c t i o n s based on data Tables 13, 14 and 21. (1) l o g C  Some o f these a r e presented below  = - 4.967 + 0.590 log G  3  - 0.539, log Y _^ + 1.298 log Y ; = 0.552 ; SE = o-2*1  2 r  (2) C = - 3.551 + 0.540 C _ t  t  3  - 0.284 log Y _ + 0.903 Y ; fc  r (3)  from  C = 0.11855 + 0.0012 Y  ;  r  3  = 0.367; SE = o. 2?G  2  2  = 0.687 ; SE = 0.121  V a r i a b l e s as f o r sawnwood above. Equation  (3) was chosen  f o r f o r e c a s t i n g f u t u r e consumption,  and the r e s u l t s shown i n Table 22. 3.35  Paper and Paperboard Between 1962 and 19 73, world p r o d u c t i o n o f paper and  board i n c r e a s e d by an average  annual compound r a t e o f 5.6  -76-  TABLE Projection  Year  • 22  o f Future Consumption of Wood-Based Panels i n Uganda to the Year 2000.  A  L LOW (  T  E  R  N A 1" T MEDIUM __ .Q00 m  I.  VI  E S : HIGH )  3  1971  9  9  9  1975  11  12  13  1980  13  17  22  1985  16  24  35  1990  19  33  56  1995  23  46  90  2000  29  65  145  Source:  Tables 13, 14 and 21 expressed as a f u n c t i o n i n Equation (3) above.  percent, w h i l e t h a t o f the MDCs had a growth r a t e o f 5.4 percent and LDCs and CPEs 8.5 and 5.6, r e s p e c t i v e l y . Y e a r l y changes i n p r o d u c t i o n c a p a c i t y u s i n g 1962 as base year i s shown i n F i g u r e 2.  In E a s t A f r i c a , except f o r  Kenya t h a t s t a r t e d manufacture o f paper i n the e a r l y '60s, p r o d u c t i o n has been f a i r l y r e c e n t .  Even then u n t i l 19 70  when pulp p r o d u c t i o n began i n Kenya, a l l the pulp r e q u i r e d f o r paper and board manufacture was imported.  Uganda has  three p l a n t s making w r i t i n g and p r i n t i n g papers, t i s s u e paper and packaging bags.  The dependence  o f these p l a n t s  on imports f o r raw m a t e r i a l s has made them v u l n e r a b l e t o government  import r e s t r i c t i o n s .  The i r r e g u l a r p r o d u c t i o n  p a t t e r n has been one o f the f a c t o r s f a v o u r i n g the e s t a b l i s h ment o f a. p u l p m i l l  ' i n the c o u n t r y .  Wood, bagasse and  papyrus are p o s s i b l e sources o f raw m a t e r i a l . In the absence o f other raw m a t e r i a l s , the apparent consumption o f wood pulp i s d i r e c t l y r e l a t e d t o t h e consumption o f paper and paperboard.  Based on t h e g e n e r a l  economics o f paper p r o d u c t i o n , f a c t o r s t h a t i n f l u e n c e the t o t a l q u a n t i t y o f wood pulp consumed i n paper manufacture include: (1) types o f paper consumed by the r e g i o n :  (2) f i b r o u s  m a t e r i a l o t h e r than wood pulp, used i n the manufacture o f paper and paperboard; (3) p r o p o r t i o n o f wood pulp consumed i n s e c t o r s o t h e r than paper and paperboard manufacture; and  (4) volume o f imports and exports o f both wood p u l p ,  paper and board (Guthrie,  1972).  «2 Source:  S3 64 65 6S 6? £3 £9 70 71 72 2._ Korld Japarboard production growth rates .(using 1SS2 as bass year) FAO Y e a r b o o k o f F o r e s t P r o d u c t s . 19 74 .  73  -79A c c o r d i n g t o FAO  (1960), a log-normal r e l a t i o n s h i p  e x i s t s between per c a p i t a consumption o f paper and paperboard and per c a p i t a income.  T h e r e f o r e consumption i s  dependent upon two demand s h i f t i n g v a r i a b l e s ; p o p u l a t i o n and income.  But per c a p i t a income does not e x p l a i n a l l  the v a r i a t i o n i n consumption. trend" factor.  For example,  A t h i r d v a r i a b l e i s a "time consumption may  be  influenced  by the f a c t t h a t a country i s i n an adjustment p r o c e s s from say  d e p r e s s i o n or i n f l a t i o n .  Under  "time t r e n d "  there a l s o e x i s t some s e c u l a r f a c t o r s .  These may  be e i t h e r  long-term change i n p r i c e of paper r e l a t i v e t o those o f o t h e r commodities; o r emergence of new paper, a t e c h n o l o g i c a l f a c t o r .  a p p l i c a t i o n s of  T h e r e f o r e , a p a r t from  p o p u l a t i o n and income, consumption i s a l s o i n f l u e n c e d by a v a r i e t y of s o c i a l , economic and c u l t u r a l  considerations.  In LDCs, consumption of' paper and'.paperboard i s very low ( - -Table 23  ).  Although these c o u n t r i e s have the  l a r g e s t share o f the world's p o p u l a t i o n ,  generally„their  per c a p i t a incomes and l i t e r a c y r a t e s are low.  The  • - .  g r e a t e s t bulk o f paper and paperboard consumption o c c u r s i n the i n d u s t r i a l s e c t o r , where i t i s used as packaging and bagging m a t e r i a l f o r food items, cement and o t h e r commodities.  Although low i n a b s o l u t e terms, consumption  i n the r e g i o n i s i n c r e a s i n g v e r y r a p i d l y , as a consequence o f the log-normal r e l a t i o n s h i p d i s c u s s e d above. example,  Osara (1963) noted,  For  -80-  TABLE 2 3 Per C a p i t a Consumption o f Paper and Paperboard i n S e l e c t e d Countries  Country  (1959-70)  Per  Capita  1956 A.  More Developed Countries (MDCs)  Canada United States ' Finland Sweden United Kingdom Australia B.  1960  Ghana Ivory Coast Kenya Tanzania Uganda Nigeria Chile Brazil India Malaysia Source:  1970 )  127 196 71 120 107 80  168 262 105 186 128 118  181 252 114 191 129 119  3 -  3 6 4  4 8 4 2 2 1 33 14 2 24  (LDCs)  2 1 11 9 1 -  W i l l i a m s and Haas  . 1969  kg/person*  127 196 60 95 82 71  Less Developed C o u n t r i e s  Consumption  10 10 1 7  2  1 1 1 20 13 14  1 1 1  (1971)  * o r i g i n a l data were i n l b . per c a p i t a , and t h i s has been converted to Kg/person u s i n g c o n v e r s i o n f a c t o r 2.2 l b s = 1 Kg) and rounded to the n e a r e s t whole number.  -81"consumption o f paper and paperboard has grown and w i l l continue, t o grow - v e r y r a p i d l y , i n many c o u n t r i e s (LDCs) f a s t e r than the growth o f GNP (gross n a t i o n a l p r o d u c t ) " .  C h i e f among the economic consumption  factors that  influence  o f paper and paperboard, and o f t e n make i t  d i s t o r t the expected log-normal r e l a t i o n s h i p , i s l a c k o f adequate  f o r e i g n exchange funds f o r  apparent consumption  imports.  Therefore,  i n these c o u n t r i e s i s not what the  t r u e s i t u a t i o n should have been.  A c c o r d i n g to O h l i n  (1963),  "when paper shortage i s c i t e d as an o b s t a c l e t o e d u c a t i o n a l and c u l t u r a l development, r e f e r e n c e i s o f t e n made t o the s c a r c i t y o f f o r e i g n exchange. When an e f f e c t i v e demand f o r paper i s suppressed by import r e s t r i c t i o n s or c u r r e n c y c o n t r o l s , t h a t s c a r c i t y i s o f course an o p e r a t i o n a l bottleneck paper i s i n underdeveloped r e g i o n s an expensive commodity more expensive than i n Europe i n a b s o l u t e terms, and many more times so i n terms o f l o c a l incomes", '"" .  Apart from the s c a r c i t y o f f o r e i g n exchange f o r imports and inadequacy o f p r o d u c t i o n c a p a c i t i e s , t h e r e i s a "secondary use" f a c t o r , induced t o some e x t e n t by the f i r s t two.  Implicit  i n the "secondary use" f a c t o r i s the  f a c t t h a t paper and paperboards produced o r imported, a f t e r - t h e i r primaryxor i n i t i a l use, go i n t o another c i r c u l a t i o n without  further modification.  food items i n the l o c a l markets.  Paper i s used f o r wrapping, I f indeed t h i s r e p r e s e n t s  ^82-  an e f f e c t i v e demand, then the c o n v e n t i o n a l method o f c a l c u l a t i n g apparent consumption would l e a d to an undere s t i m a t i o n o f a c t u a l consumption.  F o r e c a s t s based on  p a s t consumption trends would a l s o be under-estimated. F i n a l l y , t h e heterogeneity of population consumption o f paper and paperboard.  influences  F o r example i n  E a s t e r n A f r i c a , Kenya e x h i b i t s a much h i g h e r per c a p i t a consumption than Uganda o r Tanzania, when the three c o u n t r i e s are e s s e n t i a l l y a t the same l e v e l of economic development.  P a r t o f t h i s d i s p a r i t y may be e x p l a i n e d by  the l a r g e r Europear community l i v i n g i n Kenya, who  have  h i g h e r per c a p i t a incomes and consumption p a t t e r n s s i m i l a r t o t h a t i n Europe.  The t r e n d o f consumption i n  E a s t A f r i c a i s shown i n Table 24. Although i n c r e a s e s i n paper consumption have been i n the i n d u s t r i a l sector  (cement and sugar packaging), i t i s  hoped t h a t i n c r e a s e d economic growth i n growth r a t e o f GDP)  (shown by assumptions  and l i t e r a c y should l e a d to c o n t i n -  ued expansion i n the use o f newsprint, p r i n t i n g and w r i t i n g papers, and o t h e r papers and board.  Future consump-  t i o n o f paper and paperboard was e s t i m a t e d based on data from Tables 13, 14 and 24. the r e s u l t of the f o r e c a s t s  Using e q u a t i o n (3) below, i s shown i n Table 25.  Com-  pared to the p r o j e c t i o n s by Lockwood C o n s u l t a n t s L t d . (1971) , t h e i r e s t i m a t e was higher than low but lower  TABLE 24.  Production and Consumption of and S e l f - s u f f i c i e n c y Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda (1961-74) 1  Tanzania  Kenya Year  C P(• .'000MT. . ) %  1961  1  1962  3  21 24  4.8 12.5  c P (• '0OOMT. 0 0  2  8  0.0  Uganda  East A f r i c a  P C 6 (• .'OOOMT.. ) %  P C (5 (• .'500MT. .) %  0  2  0.0  1  25  4.0  0.0  3  29  10.3  3  0.0  0  2  0  2  0.0  2  33  6.1  1963  2  28  7.1  0  3  0.0  1964  3  30  10.0  0  4  0.0  0  2  Q.O  3  36  8.3  1965  3  38  7.9  0  5  0.0  0  4  0.0  3  47  6.4  1966  3  42  7.1  0  6  0.0  0  5  0.0  3  53  5.7  1967  3  46  6.5  0  6  0.0  0  7  0.0  3  59  5.1  3  60  5.0  1968  3  43  7.0  0  7  0.0  0  10  0.0  1969  3  53  5.7  0  8  0.0  0  12  0.0  3  73  4.1  1970  2  56  3.6  0  12  0.0  1  11  9.1  3  79  3.8  1971  4  69  5.8  0  11  0.0  1  15  6.7  5  95  5.3  1972  4  58  6.9  0  16  0.0  2  10  20.0  6  84  7.1  1973  5  60  6.7  0  18  0.0  1  6  16.7  5  84  6.0  1974  5  84  6.0  0  19  0.0  1  10  10.0  6  113  5.3  MT  =  metric tons  P .= Production, C = Consumption, and 6 = S e l f - s u f f i c i e n c y 1  i n Paper and Paperboard f o r  SOURCE:  FAO Forest Products Yearbook (1972 and 1974).  ratio  -84-  TABLE  25 •':  P r o j e c t i o n o f F u t u r e C o n s u m p t i o n o f P a p e r and P a p e r b o a r d •to t h e . Y e a r 2000  Year  A LOW  (—  L  T  E  R  N  A  T  I  i n Uganda  V  MEDIUM  E HIGH  '000 m e t r i c tons  )  1971  16  16  16  1975  19  21  23  1980  23  29  38  1985  28  41  60  1990  34  58  97  1995  41  81  157  2000  50  113  253  Source:  T a b l e s 1 3 , 14 a n d 21 e x p r e s s e d i n E q u a t i o n (3) a b o v e .  S  as a f u n c t i o n  -85(1) log C^= -17.909-0.222 log C _ + 0.786 log Y ^ + 1.933 log Y ; t  3  t  R  2  3  fc  = 0.781 ; SE = 0.297  (2) C = -0.848-0.443 C _ + 0.916 log Y^ + 0.807 log Y ; R = 0.656: 2  t  t  3  3  fc  SE = 0.450 (3) C = -0.537+0.002 Y. ; r = 0.834;  SE = 0.181  2  t  t  (4) C = -9.111+1.534 log Y •; r = 0.560 ;  SE = 0.647  2  t  Terms as e x p l a i n e d based p a n e l s .  f o r sawnwood and s l e e p e r s and wood-  than "Medium" and much lower than. "High".- Once again, this could "have been due t o use o f low r a t e s o f p o p u l a t i o n i n c r e a s e and/or GDP. 3.40  Summary P o p u l a t i o n , GDP and t h e i r t r a n s f o r m a t i o n  (per c a p i t a  GDP) were the independent v a r i a b l e s used i n the a n a l y s i s . A l i n e a r r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s i s was used t o e s t a b l i s h r e l a t i o n s h i p s between these v a r i a b l e s and the dependent variables product  (past consumption trends  groups).  f o r the main f o r e s t  These f u n c t i o n s were then used t o e s t i -  mate f u t u r e wood consumption t r e n d s . l e v e l s o f consumption were estimated the year 2000.  A low estimate  Low, medium and high f o r each product t o  (A) assumed a 4 p e r c e n t  growth r a t e o f GDP, and an i n c r e a s i n g then d e c l i n i n g popul a t i o n growth r a t e .  The assumption i n the medium  estimate  (B) was a 7 p e r c e n t growth r a t e i n GDP and an i n c r e a s i n g p o p u l a t i o n growth r a t e .  F i n a l l y , the h i g h value (C)  -86-  assumed the same p o p u l a t i o n growth r a t e as i n (B) b u t w i t h a GDP growth r a t e o f 10 p e r c e n t .  This ranging  allowed e l i m i n a t i o n o f some o f the "accuracy" argument posed by c r i t i c s o f f o r e c a s t i n g . The  r e s u l t s o f the f o r e c a s t s i n d i c a t e d minimum  and maximum values o f 26 and 47, 1.7 and 2.9 m i l l i o n c u b i c metres f o r fuelwood  and c h a r c o a l and p o l e s and  p o s t s , r e s p e c t i v e l y , by the year 2000.  F o r the s o l i d 3  i n d u s t r i a l wood products, the v a l u e s i n thousand m were 203 and 1031 f o r sawnwood and s l e e p e r s and 29 and 14 5 f o r wood-based p a n e l s . f o r paper and paperboard thousand  m e t r i c tons.  Consumption  requirements  products w i l l be 50 to 253  The i m p l i c a t i o n s o f these  esti-  mates f o r f o r e s t management w i l l be assessed i n Chapter F i v e , when consumption requirements  (expressed i n round-  wood e q u i v a l e n t s ) w i l l be compared w i t h p o t e n t i a l  supply  (Chapter Four) based on the c u r r e n t s i z e o f the f o r e s t estate. I d e a l l y , an attempt  to p r e d i c t the a c t u a l amounts  of wood products consumed i n f u t u r e p e r i o d s would have to  s p e c i f y the f o r c e s i n f l u e n c i n g both supply and demand,  as w e l l as p r i c e adjustments balance.  r e q u i r e d t o b r i n g them i n  T h i s study presupposes  p r i c e s o f wood products  w i l l m a i n t a i n t h e i r p r e s e n t p o s i t i o n r e l a t i v e to o t h e r p r i c e s and p a r t i c u l a r l y to p r i c e s o f c l o s e s u b s t i t u t e s .  -87-  Therefore,  these f o r e c a s t s i l l u s t r a t e p o s s i b l e  supply/  demand imbalances and r e l a t e d f u t u r e p r i c e movements; t h a t i s , a warning device o f wood p r o d u c t s .  a g a i n s t economic s c a r c i t y  -88-  CHAPTER  4.00  THE  FOUR  FOREST RESOURCE  4.10  Land Use The  i n Uganda  e x e r c i s e o f a l l o c a t i n g resources  processes efficiency  has  to  production  as i t s o b j e c t i v e , the attainment o f economic  (Libby, 1976).  At the p u b l i c l e v e l , t h i s o f t e n  i n v o l v e s some t r a d e - o f f s between e f f i c i e n c y and Apart  from  U t o p i a n  equity.  s i t u a t i o n s which cease to be problems i n  the economic sense, the a l l o c a t i o n of l a n d to competing uses i n such a way  that welfare  c e r n to a l l economists according  to E g g e l i n g  and  i s maximized  resource  i s a con-  managers.  Otherwise,  (1947),  "In the i d e a l S t a t e , where p o p u l a t i o n i s o f such dimensions and d i s t r i b u t i o n t h a t a l l users o f l a n d have t h e i r optimum requirements ( i . e . n e i t h e r more nor l e s s than they need), a l l catchments, broken ground and marginal s i t e s would c a r r y p r o t e c t i o n f o r e s t s , and there would be an i d e a l q u a n t i t y o f p r o d u c t i o n f o r e s t s , both n a t u r a l and a r t i f i c i a l , on b e t t e r c l a s s s i t e s i n s t r a t e g i c p o s i t i o n s . The f o r e s t e s t a t e i n such U t o p i a might exceed 25-30 percent o f the t o t a l area o f the country".  Uganda i s f a r from such U t o p i a , generally follows a s o i l  i t s population  fertility  - ample r a i n f a l l  with major economic a c t i v i t i e s concentrated regions. use  Therefore,  distribution  i n these  a l l o c a t i o n o f l a n d to v a r i o u s  c a t e g o r i e s i n general  an important d e c i s i o n .  and  index  land  forestry in particular, i s  -89I t has been emphasized t h a t i n LDCs, governments interfere degree.  w i t h the market mechanism to a  significant  But even i n MDCs, i t i s r e c o g n i z e d  that while  the market mechanism alone o f t e n causes i n d i v i d u a l s to f o l l o w the b e s t course f o r t h e i r immediate i n t e r e s t s , i n the case o f land i t i s r a r e l y found to l e a d to a c o l l e c t i v e optimum i n the long-run. f a c t o r s are the absolute excessive  frequency of i n t e r a c t i o n s and  s h i p of land  contributing  l i m i t to the supply  s p e c u l a t i o n i n an i m p e r f e c t  (OECD, 19 76) .  The  of  market-  land,  and  the  neighbourhood e f f e c t s  Land s p e c u l a t i o n i s governed by the ownerand  s i n c e i n Uganda i t i s p u b l i c , t h i s  e f f e c t i s o f n e g l i g i b l e importance. A g r i c u l t u r e i s the dominant land use ' a t present.  .  With i n c r e a s e d economic a c t i v i t y other  land  use  commitments w i l l i n c r e a s e t h e i r demand on the  resource.  One  of these i s the f o r e s t r y s e c t o r , s i n c e at  absolute  low  l e v e l s o f per  c a p i t a r e a l income, the income e l a s t i c i t y  o f demand f o r most wood products i s g r e a t e r Therefore,  i n the long-run,  than  as per c a p i t a r e a l income  r i s e s , so w i l l the demand f o r f o r e s t p r o d u c t s . therefore,induce f u t u r e unless  T h i s would ,  economic s c a r c i t y of roundwood i n the  compensating i n c r e a s e s  i n roundwood  a t low c o s t can be maintained or i n i t i a t e d . increased  one.  concern f o r e r o s i o n - c o n t r o l and  supply  Moreover,  watershed  p r o t e c t i o n w i l l r e s u l t i n more t r a c t s o f l a n d committed to f o r e s t r y .  I t i s being  i n c r e a s i n g l y argued t h a t ,  on  -90-  a g r i c u l t u r a l l y marginal lands,, f o r e s t r y c o u l d compete f a v o u r a b l y activities.  w i t h crop p r o d u c t i o n  Finally,  or  indeed  grazing  j u s t as i n a g r i c u l t u r e , government  f i n a n c i a l a i d f o r a f f o r e s t a t i o n or r e f o r e s t a t i o n p r o j e c t s may  strengthen  land. and  the c l a i m o f f o r e s t r y f o r a g r i c u l t u r a l  Therefore,  the low  land i n Table  26  l e v e l of u t i l i z a t i o n of a v a i l a b l e land  as  shown i n Table 27, "artificial  the  surplus arable  are only temporary and  represent  s u r p l u s " induced by i m p e r f e c t i o n s  of p o l i c y  or i t s implementation.  Only s i x d i s t r i c t s had  commitments  f o r over 50 percent  :  accounting  land area a v a i l a b l e .  land  o f the  use total  These d i s t r i c t s are mainly those i n  which a g r i c u l t u r a l h o l d i n g s t o t a l use,  an  c o n s t i t u t e over 4 0  percent  except i n Bunyoro where the percentage i s  considerably group - as-':, a  l e s s (12 percent) but belongs to  this  r e s u l t of a more d i v e r s i f i e d and  balanced  a l l o c a t i o n of l a n d among land use commitments.  In  Bunyoro, Toro and West Buganda, f o r e s t r y i s the dominant land use.  On  the other hand i n Karamoja, Game Reserves  c o n s t i t u t e the dominant land use The a way  commitment  (25.1  percent).  demand f a c t o r s , d i s c u s s e d above, w i l l a c t i n such  as to decrease the s i z e o f s u r p l u s  on e c o l o g i c a l s u i t a b i l i t y f o r v a r i o u s  land depending  uses.  Despite  the a v a i l a b i l i t y of t h i s s u r p l u s l a n d , r e g i o n a l use c o n f l i c t s do e x i s t , and  land  i t i s assumed, w i l l do  the n a t i o n a l scene i n the near f u t u r e .  The  so  on  more obvious  types o f c o n f l i c t s t h a t can be envisaged as l i k e l y to a r i s e  TABLE 26 Land Use In Uganda (19 72) A l l other Land (Sq. Km )  DISTRICT* East Buganda West Buganda Fubends Masaka Busoga Bukedi Bugisu Sebei Teso North Karamoja South Karamoja Lango West Acholi "West Acholi West Nile Madi Ankole Bunyoro Kigezi Toro UGANDA  *  Total Area of D i s t r i c t (sq.km.)  Arable Total Total Area Land Area Under Water Cultivated (sq.km.) (sq.km.)  23,438.83 6,559,84 10,309.71 21,300.04 19,195.42 4,553.09 2,545.80 1,738.31 12,920.77 13,207.82 14,013.54 13,739.64 16,135.85 11,717.12 10,720.86 5,006.05 16,235.40 19,536.48 5,241.37 .13,903.58  13,132.68 9,324.09 1,211.41 4,783.41 9,819.70 2.42 9,852.42 10,685.61 8,586.66 8,832.94 101.21 3,899.50 2,503.58 1,739.31 1,055.47 10,982.89 13,207.82 0.21 13,986.96 916.43 ' 12,037.98 0.31 16,132.12 11,543.18 73.29 10,376.66 95.45 4,668.33 72.63 15,430.72 440.72 16,229.59 2,982.85 207.08 4,898.54 12,928.40 571.92  3,493.61 1,744.81 2,049.14 2,327.41 4,709.43 2,520.15 1,142.40 319.51 8,259.90 192.10 141.72 4,518.71 1,814.32 2,112.70 2,357.34 1,367.14 3,428.40 1,705.36 2,434.15 1,776.31  241,020.52  196,985.73  36,327.76  48,914.60  B o u n d a r i e s a r e a c c o r d i n g t o 1969 demarcations Source:  FAO (1975)  Area Under Area Under Area Under National & Game Forest Unculti- permanent Reserves eserves Swamps vated 983.06 9,565.69 565.02 2,975.79 487.59 1,710.36 762.01 7,013.99 775.82 3,928.87 552.38 1,404.35 . 42.22 683.00 865.19 882.41 1,898.00 1,043.13 16,118.00 26.37 7,169.49 1,785.66 10,653.14 3.42 14,000.26 100.65 248.75 6,720.96 265.09 1,977.06 363.96 10,562.00 324.04 10,295.94 135.75 2,519.45 403 26 8,020.50  -  128,545.07  7,707.46  1,006.42 386.25 757.35 797.00 330.08 52.05 527.55 671.67 133.72 2,133.36 1,0 4.43 212.33 742.30 310.32 705.38 344.99 973.22 1,670.45 585.90 2,361.00 15,250.31  Area Under Mountains  Area Under Urban Centres  _  -  -6,552.00  297.00 590.00  67.00 238.00 7.00 12.00 82.00 7.00 15.00  Area Under Ranches  79 .00 272 .00  8.00  251 .00  5.00  480 .00  5.00  190 .00  1,989.00  14.00  555 .00  182.00  110.00  -  1,450.00 2,431.00 655.00 2,361.00  35.00 1,004.00  8.00 2.00 12.00 5.00 5.00 14.00  15,620.00  2, 36.00  506.00 2,566.00  -  4.00 264 .00 471 .00  i  M I  -92TABLE  27  P e r c e n t a g e o f t h e Land W i t h i n D i s t r i c t s i n Uganda A t t r i b u t e d t o V a r i o u s L a n d U s e C o m m i t m e n t s (1971) N a t i o n a l Game Park Reserve WESTERN PROVINCE Ankole Bunyoro Kigezi Toro BUGANDA PROVINCE Masaka E a s t Buganda West Buganda Mubende EASTERN PROVINCE Bugisu Sebei Bukedi Busoga Teso NORTHERN PROVINCE Acholi Lango Madi West N i l e  4,.7 14 . 8 7,.1 6 .5 ,  6..1 5 ., 8 6..2 9 .0 .  - -—  - - —  - -- -  —  - -  - - —  —  —  —  - -  —  - -  —  — --  —  43 57 72 48  7,.9 6..1 12,.4  24..7 23,.6 11,.7  4..0 6 .8 , 5..1  5..0 5 .0 , 5.. 0  42 42 34  - -—  12,.4 15,.8 1,.3 4 .5 . 1..2  - -- -  - - - -  - -  5..0 5..0 5..0  81 68 64  1..5  3 .7 . 1..7 7 .7 , 6 ,4 .  9 .1 . 23..3 10 . .5 9..3  0.,2 2..1 0..1 0..04  2..0 2..0 2..0 2 ,0 .  22 29 20 19  25. 1  13 ..5  0..1  2 ., 0  47  —  - -  - -  2..0 5..0 5..0 2..0  0 .1 . 1..7 2..1  —  - - - -  5,.2 3,.6 0 .1 , 0..9  74..2 56..6 55..2  —  —  18,.8 12,.1 42 .0 11,.0  78  - - —  - -  6,.3 15,.2 11,.8 18,.6  5..0  —  6 .5 .  infrastructure Instruction Total  0..1  - - —  —  Ranches & Estates  44,.4  - - — —  Forestry A g r i . Reserve Holdings  1.,0 —  - -  - - - -  KARAMOJA PROVINCE 5..4  Source:  L o c k w o o d C o n s u l t a n t s L t d . (19 7 1 ) .  —  - -  i n Uganda, i n c l u d e the competition f o r w i l d l i f e p r o t e c t i o n and  between areas s e t aside  the i n c r e a s i n g amount o f  g r a z i n g land which i s r e q u i r e d f o r Uganda's expanding c a t t l e population''".  Another p o t e n t i a l c o n f l i c t which  might a r i s e i f an o v e r a l l n a t i o n a l shortage o f  farmland  developed i n the f u t u r e , concerns the i n c l u s i o n o f cons i d e r a b l e areas of "best a g r i c u l t u r a l l a n d " w i t h i n  the  2  boundaries o f the n a t i o n a l parks . No views\were expressed c o n f l i c t s between a g r i c u l t u r e and  f o r e s t r y although,  on  this  does not negate the e x i s t e n c e of the p o t e n t i a l f o r such a conflict. may  Besides  competition,  f o r e s t r y and a g r i c u l t u r e  c o - e x i s t or complement each o t h e r .  These r e l a t i o n -  ships have not been s t u d i e d s u f f i c i e n t l y to allow concrete  judgements.  any  I n t e g r a t i o n of f o r e s t r y w i t h  agri-  c u l t u r e , known as the shamba system, i s p r a c t i s e d to a l i m i t e d extent  i n Sebei d i s t r i c t  (Kriek, 1967b).  Elsewhere, i t has o f t e n been s t a t e d t h a t , i n pursuing  s o l u t i o n s to the p l a n n i n g  f o r e s t r y and  and  a g r i c u l t u r e , regional land  surveys are necessary  ( E l l e f s o n , 1974;  i n t e g r a t i o n of capability Adeyoju, 1975).  However, Cunningham (197 3) b e l i e v e d these may l i m i t e d value  s i n c e i t i s the resources  p a r t i c u l a r farm u n i t i n e v a l u a t i n g l a n d use  be  of  a v a i l a b l e to a  which are o f r e l e v a n c e .  Ideally,  a l t e r n a t i v e s there should be  c l e a r d e f i n i t i o n o f landowner's g o a l s , o b j e c t i v e s  a  and  p o l i c i e s so as to match use c a p a b i l i t i e s to demand. T o o o f t e n , judgements have been made on h i s t o r i c a l  evidence  r a t h e r than on f u t u r e p o s s i b i l i t i e s where t e c h n o l o g i c a l i n n o v a t i o n , s t r u c t u r a l change, product demand, and.other f a c t o r s are taken i n t o account.  In o t h e r words,  should simultaneously determine the s i z e of  total  p r o d u c t i o n , product p r i c e s , and d i s t r i b u t i o n and  s i z e c l a s s e s (Strand, 1969) .  (quoted i n Strand  one  among regions  A c c o r d i n g to P e t r i n  (1969) and Adeyoju 1975), economic  r e n t should be p l o t t e d a g a i n s t use c a p a c i t y o f the land, and a r r a n g i n g these i n a d e c r e a s i n g o r d e r , the use b e s t s u i t e d a t a g i v e n t e c h n o l o g i c a l l e v e l chosen. (1974) and Dargavel and Ferguson  Ferguson  (1975) emphasized the  u t i l i z a t i o n of economic p r i n c i p l e s , e s p e c i a l l y  the  c r i t e r i o n of "net s o c i a l b e n e f i t " , i n g u i d i n g l a n d use d e c i s i o n makers to choose the use best s u i t e d to a given t r a c t of land.  However, they agree t h a t the u l t i m a t e  c h o i c e i s a p o l i t i c a l one. c a p a b i l i t y study was  In Uganda, a physical'.land  undertaken and  r e s u l t e d i n the  e s t a b l i s h m e n t of f i v e zones,' based on c l i m a t i c c o n d i t i o n s and the n u t r i e n t s t a t u s o f the s o i l extent t h a t t h i s zoning was  (Table 28).  To  the  primarily for agriculture,  i t does not mean f o r example t h a t zone 3 i s l e s s p r o d u c t i v e compared to zone 1 f o r f o r e s t r y . i n f o r e s t r y i s determined i t s wood and  site. '  Productivity  by the s p e c i e s grown, demand f o r  Elsewhere,  marginal  agricultural  land has been proven to be e c o n o m i c a l l y p r o d u c t i v e 1976;  MacDonald, 1976);or "supra-marginal"  19.6 2) f o r f o r e s t r y .  (Jeffe  (MacGreggor,  -.95TABLE  28.  The R e l a t i v e D i s t r i b u t i o n o f E c o l o g i c a l In Uganda by D i s t r i c t Groups  E C 0 L 0 G I C A !•  Region  1  2  3  Zones  ZONES  4  5  Total  0  100  (%)  Busoga Bukedi  14  58  28  0  E a s t Buganda West Buganda  30  15  43  12  100  Sebei Teso Bugisu  18  13  55  14  100  Toro Mubende Bunyoro  3  34  51  12  100  Masaka Ankole Kigezi  8  30  39  23  100  West N i l e Madi  3  10  51  36  100  57  38  100  0  42  Acholi Lango North Karamoja South Karamoja  0  0  58  100  Zones 1 and 2 c o n s i d e r e d best f o r a g r i c u l t u r a l use Zone 3 marginal a g r i c u l t u r a l land Zones4 and 5 s u i t a b l e f o r l i v e s t o c k g r a z i n g but not crop c u l t i v a t i o n . Source:  Uganda M i n i s t r y  o f P l a n n i n g and Economic Development  (1972).  The include: uses; and  f a c t o r s t h a t i n f l u e n c e land use  decisions  (a) c o s t - b e n e f i t r a t i o s of the d i f f e r e n t land  (b) economic l o c a t i o n of the crops and  demand f o r the competing products;(c)  p a t t e r n s c a l e s , labour  requirements;  supply  d i f f e r e n t time  (d) p o s s i b i l i t y  u s i n g the products f o r i n d u s t r i a l i z a t i o n ;  (e)  and  (f) t h e i r p o s s i b l e c o n t r i b u t i o n to  balance o f payments (King, 1965) . five factors  various the  In Uganda, the  last  c o l l e c t i v e l y express government's p o l i c y to  d i v e r s i f y and modernize the economy. a l l be i n v e s t i g a t e d and  These f a c t o r s  should  i n addition, continually revised  i n view o f t h e i r dynamic nature. procedure f o r l a n d use p l a n n i n g Ferguson  of  comparative  advantage i n i n t e r n a t i o n a l trade of p r o d u c i n g the products;  of  A useful analytical i s t h a t o u t l i n e d by  (1974) which i n v o l v e s i n a step wise manner:  estimating  the resource  inventory ; d e f i n i t i o n of  supply  a l t e r n a t i v e s , development of an input-output  model,  estimation  analysis  o f aggregate demand, and  finally,  of the optimum a l l o c a t i o n o f r e s o u r c e s . analyses  r e q u i r e adequate i n f o r m a t i o n  the a v a i l a b i l i t y of resources d e c i s i o n s now land  and  to meet the present  ( T a y l o r , 1975) .  However, such  on f u t u r e needs,  and  the time needed to make demands p l a c e d on  These requirements  the  represent  obvious c o n s t r a i n t s i n e v a l u a t i n g land use a l t e r n a t i v e s i n Uganda. 4.20  S i z e o f the F o r e s t The  Estate  a l l o c a t i o n of land to v a r i o u s uses, l a n d  c o n f l i c t s and  a r a t i o n a l economic approach to  use  evaluating  l a n d use a l t e r n a t i v e s were o u t l i n e d above.  I t was  only  r e c e n t l y t h a t zoning based on p h y s i c a l c r i t e r i a was taken i n Uganda. has  T h e r e f o r e , whatever land use  under-  pattern  developed, d i d so on an e v o l u t i o n a r y b a s i s .  It  was  i n d i r e c t l y governed by the response o f the peasants to economic o p p o r t u n i t i e s and a i d e d by government p o l i c i e s . T h i s statement i s only true f o r the a g r i c u l t u r a l s e c t o r . F o r e s t s are p u b l i c l y owned.  Their geographical  distri-  b u t i o n and extent must, t h e r e f o r e , have been c e n t r a l l y determined.  Was  i t based on p h y s i c a l o r economic c r i t e r i a  or a combination o f both? A c o n s i d e r a b l e debate has e x i s t e d over how f o r e s t area a country it  or r e g i o n needs.  much  To a l a r g e extent,  should be determined by the o v e r a l l economic  velopment s t r a t e g y and  de-  subsequent f o r m u l a t i o n o f an  a p p r o p r i a t e l a n d use p o l i c y f o r a g i v e n country. priori,  there i s no need f o r any country  to have  f o r e s t e s t a t e a t a l l i f i t can i n the long-run, goods and i t s own  services obtainable  production.  f e a s i b l e to import  A any import  the  from f o r e s t s cheaper than  In p r a c t i c e , although  i t may  a l l o r most wood products,  be  a minimum  area of p r o t e c t i v e f o r e s t s might prove necessary.  If  there i s an e x p l i c i t or i m p l i c i t advantage i n a r e g i o n having  i t s own  f o r e s t e s t a t e from which the goods and  s e r v i c e s demanded by s o c i e t y are produced, then economics suggests t h a t , as much land should be a l l o c a t e d to f o r e s t r y as i s economically  f e a s i b l e and e f f i c i e n t .  Production  -98-  p r o t e c t i o n and  r e c r e a t i o n a l goals d e r i v e d from s o c i o -  economic f a c t o r s t h a t generate both domestic and t e r n a l demand f o r these goods and  ex-  s e r v i c e s should  termine the s i z e of the f o r e s t e s t a t e  de-  (Adeyoju, 1975).  More e x p l i c i t l y , Clawson (1975) observed t h a t i n the U n i t e d S t a t e s the s i z e of the f o r e s t area should determined by  be  f o r e s t p o l i c y , a v a i l a b i l i t y of funds f o r  management, t r a d e o f f s between i n t e n s i f i c a t i o n  of  management and expansion of the f o r e s t e s t a t e , planted  ( i f d e s i r a b l e ) and  bearing  the c o s t s and  t h e i r uses, and  species  persons  those to whom b e n e f i t s  accrue.  These broad g u i d e l i n e s can be a p p l i e d to other areas Table  29 and F i g u r e 3 i l l u s t r a t e the progress made  i n c r e a t i n g a f o r e s t e s t a t e f o r Uganda. be  too.  From these i t can  seen t h a t the area d e c l a r e d as n a t i o n a l f o r e s t r e s e r v e s  fluctuated considerably.  T h i s appears to c o n t r a d i c t  d e f i n i t i o n of " f o r e s t r e s e r v a t i o n " , which a c c o r d i n g Troup  the to  (1940), i s the s e t t i n g a s i d e of areas of permanent  maintenance over f o r e s t .  In r e a l i t y ,  though reserved  permanent f o r e s t land, a d d i t i o n s to and  as  e x c i s i o n s from the  e s t a t e do take p l a c e i n l i g h t of changing s o c i a l ,  political  3  and economic c o n d i t i o n s  .  The M i n i s t e r r e s p o n s i b l e f o r  f o r e s t r y can amend boundaries. political ductions  In Uganda,  f a c t o r s seem to have been a major cause o f r e i n the s i z e of the f o r e s t e s t a t e .  the dramatic decrease i n 1953  was  due  For  instance,  to the d i v i s i o n  of  -99-  the f o r e s t e s t a t e i n t o C e n t r a l and administrative units.  L o c a l Government.  Under the l a t t e r ownership,  s e v e r a l adjustments to the f o r e s t area was more land degazetted.  made, and  A f t e r independence i n 1962,  the  strengthened p o l i t i c a l power o f the L o c a l Governments and Kingdoms coupled w i t h t h e i r i n c r e a s e d  autonomy,  caused a f u r t h e r r e d u c t i o n between 1962  and  The  after creation  s i z e o f the f o r e s t e s t a t e i n c r e a s e d  of a r e p u b l i c a n  1966.  s t a t u s f o r Uganda, with f o r e s t  resource  management r e s p o n s i b i l i t i e s t r a n s f e r r e d to a s i n g l e Uganda F o r e s t Department s i z e has The  (Appendix I I ) .  However, i t s  s i n c e then never exceeded the peak o f  1950.  s t r a t e g y the c o l o n i a l f o r e s t o f f i c e r s used  i n r e s e r v i n g f o r e s t land was  t h a t of maximum r e s e r v a t i o n  before  from r a p i d l y i n c r e a s i n g  considerable  pressure 4  p o p u l a t i o n made i t d i f f i c u l t  .  T h i s trend i s i l l u s t r a t e d  i n the r a p i d progress made i n " f o r e s t r e s e r v a t i o n " between 1936  and  1950  (see F i g u r e  3).  The  greatest  b i t o r o f r e s e r v a t i o n of f o r e s t land a f t e r 1950 5 o f e s t a b l i s h i n g a minimum area under f o r e s t s . p o l i c y of minimum area  to be  was For  not the case i n Uganda.  forestry.  This  no r a t i o n a l  much land would be committed to  Generally,  the  True, the p r o t e c t i o n f o r e s t s  were r e s e r v e d where needed, but there was a n a l y s i s of how  the p o l i c y  s u c c e s s f u l , the land must be  s u i t a b l e f o r the purpose f o r which i t i s r e s e r v e d . was  inhi-  "planned land use  i n any  production area would  -100TABLE 29 • The Progress o f F o r e s t R e s e r v a t i o n (1932-1971/72) YEAR AREA KM  GAZETTED DURING THE YEAR  Crown Forests 1932 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 1940 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 1950 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59/60 1960/61 61/62 62/63 63/64 64/65 65/66 66/67 67/68 68/69 69/70 1970/71 71/72 Source:  TOTAL GAZETTED AREA AT END OF THE YEAR ('00 ha)  Native F o r e s t Reserves  3615 46 — — — 1590 2591 1308 3149 973 1851 13 92 3 648 61 271 49 30 — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — —  N.A. - N o t - a v a i l a b l e  i n Uganda  — — — — — — 72 223 36 172 389 3 — 18 51 202 54 108 — — — — — — — . — — — — — — — — — — — — — —  3615 3661 3661 3661 3661 5251 7842 9222 12594 13603 15626 16038 16123 16126 16792 16904 17377 17480 17624 17457 17175 15795 15762 16330 16000 16507 16507 15867 15867 15941 14886 14886 14451 14472 14469 15867 N.A. N.A. 16158 N.A.  -  Uganda F o r e s t Department Annual  Reports (1930- 71) .  Figure 3 Progress i n G a z e t t i n g Government F o r e s t E s t a t e i n Uganda  -102-  need to take cognizance  o f s h o r t and long-term r e -  quirements and o f the stage o f economic development" (MacGreggor, 1962).  T h i s was not the case i n Uganda.  Product requirements  and the c a p a b i l i t y o f the f o r e s t s  i n meeting these were never adequately was  defined.  There  no c o n s i d e r a t i o n o f the c o - e x i s t e n c e o r complemen-  t a r y r e l a t i o n s h i p between f o r e s t r y and o t h e r l a n d - u s i n g resources.  Nor was t h e r e an e v a l u a t i o n o f the f i n a n c i a l  consequences o f i n t e n s i f y i n g management to o b t a i n the maximum p o s s i b l e y i e l d from the t a r g e t a r e a .  Because o f  t h i s , the p o l i c y o f m a i n t a i n i n g minimum area was n o t o n l y a f a i l u r e , b u t s e r i o u s l y c o n s t r a i n e d the p o s s i b i l i t y o f a g r e a t e r r o l e f o r e s t r y c o u l d have p l a y e d i n the economic development o f Uganda. A c c o r d i n g to Uchendu (1967), n e i t h e r the economist who p r o v i d e s i n s i g h t s i n t o the problems o f development nor the c i v i l  servants who suggest the p o l i c y g u i d e l i n e s ,  o r the p o l i t i c i a n s who make the f i n a l p o l i c y d e c i s i o n s , are agreed on the b e s t s t r a t e g y f o r d e v e l o p i n g backward economies. strategy.  T h i s i s because there i s no s i n g l e b e s t The deep seated y e a r n i n g f o r a m o n o l i t h i c  approach and g e n e r a l law v a l i d f o r a l l c l i m a t e s and a l l times i s o b s o l e t e .  F o r i n s t a n c e , Uganda's f o r e s t e s t a t e  i s estimated a t 8 p e r c e n t o f t o t a l area', and there have been o p i n i o n s expressed  t o i n c r e a s e t h i s to 10 p e r c e n t .  -103-  T h i s estimate was  probably based on a g e n e r a l B r i t i s h  Empire approach r a t h e r than socio-economic p e r t a i n i n g to Uganda i n p a r t i c u l a r . d e s i r e d percentage  factors  Establishing  the  of t o t a l area under f o r e s t s i s mis-  l e a d i n g because i t depends on the type o f v e g e t a t i o n i n c l u d e d and g i v e s no i n d i c a t i o n o f v a l u e and p r o d u c t i v i t y of the l a n d (Troup, 1940); a t b e s t a r b i t r a r y , b a s e l e s s and u n r e a l i s t i c it  (Mabogunze e t a l . ,  1969), and  i g n o r e s the a b s o l u t e s i z e o f t h a t a r e a , and the popu-  l a t i o n the area i s to support. suggested  T h e r e f o r e , Enabor  (19 76)  an index of per c a p i t a f o r e s t area as being  more d e s i r a b l e .  Table 30 shows the two  a v a i l a b i l i t y of forest land.  indices of  For example, whereas the  p r o p o r t i o n o f f o r e s t areas i n N i g e r i a , Ghana, Ivory Coast and Dahomey a l l exceed  30 percent, on a per c a p i t a  b a s i s N i g e r i a ' s f o r e s t lands are not  substantially  d i f f e r e n t from those of Kenya and Uganda. r e l a t i o n s h i p s more meaningful,  To make these  a g r e a t e r number of  f a c t o r s w i l l have to be c o n s i d e r e d  (such as  spatial  d i s t r i b u t i o n , age c l a s s e s , r a t e of growth and power of the population) than the two  purchasing  i n d i c e s above.  In  any case, they both have i m p l i c i t assumptions about p h y s i c a l s e l f - s u f f i c i e n c y i n goods and  services derived  from f o r e s t s , a p o t e n t i a l source o f economic  ineffi-  ciency. A minimum area was the s e c t o r was  advocated  f o r f o r e s t r y because  made s u b s e r v i e n t to a g r i c u l t u r e .  In t h i s  case, f o r e s t r y was  more a government s e r v i c e  to farmers than an economically  v i a b l e land  provided use  commitment capable of competing w i t h a g r i c u l t u r e .  The  r a t i o n a l e f o r t h i s k i n d o f a c t i o n i s what Kromm (1972) had  i n mind when he r e f e r r e d to f o r e s t r y as a  dual land use"  i n the United  States, providing  from s o i l which might otherwise be  "resibenefits  unproductive.  Kromm argued t h a t f o r e s t r y i s o f t e n the b e s t land  use  s t r a t e g y a v a i l a b l e f o r r e g i o n a l development where phys i c a l , economic and tablishment  s o c i a l c o n d i t i o n s preclude  the  es-  of more p r o f i t a b l e a c t i v i t i e s such as p r o -  ductive a g r i c u l t u r e .  His type of reasoning  i s what  must have p r e v a i l e d i n the minds of the e a r l y f o r e s t e r s i n Uganda.  But  i t i s erroneous because i t ignores  economic c o n s i d e r a t i o n s  and  i s r e i n f o r c e d by the  most  tradi-  t i o n a l deep-seated f e a r h e l d by most f o r e s t e r s t h a t f o r e s t r y cannot compete w i t h a g r i c u l t u r e (King, 1965) .  Furthermore, unless  one  economically  can  demonstrate  f o r a given country or r e g i o n under the same c o n d i t i o n s , a "non-space, n o n - r e s i d u a l  land u s i n g a c t i v i t y " can  b e t t e r than f o r e s t r y , Kromm's c o n t e n t i o n s (Gregerson, 1973); and t e r s of Uganda.  are  do  false  so are those of the e a r l y f o r e s -  Finally,  terms l i k e  "productive"  or  "unproductive" are meaningless i n p h y s i c a l terms when considering duction  land use  alternatives.  For example, p r o -  f u n c t i o n s of a g r i c u l t u r a l crops and  trees  are  r.io-5-  TABLE 30' Comparative S t a t i s t i c s o f F o r e s t Land Area i n S e l e c t e d A f r i c a n C o u n t r i e s i n 1970  COUNTRY  Uganda^  F o r e s t s as % o f T o t a l Area (%) 8  a  F o r e s t Land Per C a p i t a (ha/person) 0. 2  Nigeria  34  0.5  Ghana  52  1.5  Ivory Coast  38  2.6  Gabon  75  41.7  Kenya  4  0.2  Zaire  57  7.7  Cameroon  52  4.3  Dahomey  38  1.6  Angola  58  13.4  Tanzania  38  2.7  /a /b  not i n c l u d e d i n o r i g i n a l data  (Source: Lockwood C o n s u l t a n t s L t d . (1971). not i n c l u d e d i n o r i g i n a l data (Source: F o r e s t Products Yearbook 1969/70).  Source:  y  Enabor  (19 76).  -106different.  T h e r e f o r e , p r o d u c t i v i t y can o n l y be  to gross or net value product  related  (MacGreggor, 1960)  and  problems a s s o c i a t e d with i t s measurements f o r purposes o f l a n d use comparison have been discussed, by  King  (1965) . A h i s t o r i c a l t r e n d of p l a n n i n g f o r development i n Uganda was was  sketched  out i n Chapter Two,  shown t h a t b e f o r e the  T h e r e f o r e , s i n c e the 8-10 was  '60s  i n which, i t  there was  no  "real" plan.  p e r c e n t f o r e s t land  criterion  f i x e d b e f o r e the "planning e r a " , there i s now  to r e - e v a l u a t e t h i s aspect of f o r e s t p o l i c y .  need  It i s in-  t e r e s t i n g to note t h a t the time " d e s i r a b l e " p r o p o r t i o n of f o r e s t area was  e s t a b l i s h e d , most of the  f o r e s t s were t r o p i c a l high f o r e s t s (THF).  production But i t i s  apparent t h a t the r e a l i z a t i o n o f the f o r e s t r y  potential  of a r e g i o n based on THFs i s s e r i o u s l y handicapped by  the  heterogeneous nature o f these f o r e s t s , the low volume of marketable t r e e s per u n i t area, t e c h n i c a l d i f f i c u l t i e s i n m i l l i n g or p r o c e s s i n g a wide range of hardwoods f o r lumber and p a r t i c l e b o a r d , c o s t l y processes  f o r pulp  and  paper manufacture from mixed t r o p i c a l hardwoods and  the  l a c k o f i n f o r m a t i o n on the p r o p e r t i e s of many s p e c i e s (Nelson, 1973) .  T h e r e f o r e , with incomplete  information  on the c a p a c i t y of the r e s e r v e d f o r e s t s to p r o v i d e goods and  s e r v i c e s d e s i r e d by s o c i e t y , the s i z e o f the  e s t a t e i n Uganda was  based mainly  Even i f assessment was  on  forest  "guesstimates".  based on p h y s i c a l c r i t e r i a  alone,  -107these a l s o were p o o r l y In the statement  understood. of "minimum a r e a " , there  was  once a d e s i r e to d e c l a r e 8 p e r c e n t of the area o f each d i s t r i c t f o r e s t land, so as to make i t s e l f - s u f f i c i e n t . However, s e l f - s u f f i c i e n c y f i r s t a t the n a t i o n a l , then a t the d i s t r i c t l e v e l i g n o r e s s p e c i a l i z a t i o n based on s u i t a b i l i t y o f the land f o r a l t e r n a t i v e uses.  I t also  ignores d i f f e r e n c e s i n p r o d u c t i v i t y o f the lands so s e t aside. F i n a l l y , growth trends i n ' t h e s i z e of the e s t a t e , roundwood p r o d u c t i o n , p o p u l a t i o n and i n Uganda (based on an index o f 100  roundwood p r o d u c t i o n  1956)  Between 1930  and  index i n c r e a s e d from 117  343 g i v i n g a compound annual and i s s t i l l  agriculture  f o r the year  are shown i n Table 31 and F i g u r e 4. 1970,  forest  growth r a t e o f 2.7  showing an upward t r e n d .  The  percent  s i z e of the  f o r e s t e s t a t e i n c r e a s e d from an index o f 23 i n 1932 100  i n 1943,  percent.  g i v i n g a compound annual  However, between 1943  and  to  to  growth r a t e of  1970,  there was  14.3 little  change i n the s i z e of the f o r e s t e s t a t e , being between 90 and 110.  Between 1956  and  1970,  wood p r o d u c t i o n i n c r e a s e d from 100 a g r i c u l t u r e from 100 growth r a t e s of 9.2  the index o f roundto 343  and t h a t o f  to 177,  g i v i n g annual  compound  and 4.2,  respectively.  To the  t e n t t h a t the s i z e o f the f o r e s t e s t a t e was  ex-  more or l e s s  constant, t h i s r a p i d i n c r e a s e i n roundwood p r o d u c t i o n  - 108 -  TABLE 31  Growth Trends>-in: the Size o f F o r e s t E s t a t e , Roundwood P r o d u c t i o n , P o p u l a t i o n and A g r i c u l t u r a l P r o d u c t i v i t y Index i n p e r c e n t (19^6 - 100) I n Uganda.  Forest Estate  Year 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959.5 1960.5 1961.5 1962.5 1963.5 1964. 1965. 1966. 1967. 1968. 1969 , 1970, 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975  23 23 23 23 23 33 49 58 79 85 98 100 101 101 105 106 109 109 110 109 107 99 99 102 100 103 103 99 99 100 93 93 90 90 90 99 _  101  /a  Roundwood' /  b  Population  117 123 104 101 99 117 141 160 187 185 105 147 152 194 206 206 195 148 133 138 142 160 148 147 124 127 100 98  —  158 158 143 148 107 199 187 225 289 296 343  Source: a/and b/ Uganda's f o r e s t Dept. A n n u a l R e p o r t s c - USDA(1976) and d a t a f o r 1930 t o 1955 i n t r a p o l a t e d from 19 56 d a t a at. 2.5% compound growth r a t e d  - USDA (1976) .  Total Agricultural Productivity Index/ d  85  60  64  76  86  100 103 105 108 111 114 116 119 122 126 129 132 135 139 143 147 151 155 159 164  (1930-) -  100 103 108 108 123 114 134 137 145 155 158 153 173 179 177 173 174 159 149 144  Forest estate Roundwood production Total agricultural productivity index Population  SS  S  ^  42  4«  44  a  ^  SS  2«  63  64  &3  FIGURE 4. Growth Trends i n Size of Forest Estate, Roundwood production, Population and Total Agricultural Productivity Index Source: Table 31  7®  fg '3?-j  -110-  c o u l d have been due to i n t e n s i f i c a t i o n i n management (producing and h a r v e s t i n g more wood p e r u n i t a r e a ) . The s i z e o f the f o r e s t e s t a t e by f o r e s t c a t e g o r i e s i s shown i n Table 32.  The p r o d u c t i v e areas are  the t r o p i c a l h i g h f o r e s t s and p l a n t a t i o n s , 746 518 ha (or  46% o f the t o t a l f o r e s t e s t a t e ) .  This  confirms  t h a t the p o l i c y o f " r e s e r v i n g " p r o t e c t i v e f o r e s t s i n p r e f e r e n c e t o e n l a r g i n g the area under p r o d u c t i v e f o r e s t s was adhered t o .  The t r o p i c a l high f o r e s t s were  o r i g i n a l l y e x t e n s i v e l y managed, o r g i v e n management".  "custodial  Areas r e f e r r e d t o as "other v e g e t a t i o n s "  are v a l u a b l e mainly  f o r t h e i r s o i l s and watershed values  and f r e q u e n t l y occur beyond timber meters above sea l e v e l .  l i n e s exceeding  2000  T h e r e f o r e , t h i s area i s above  the t i m b e r l i n e and i t s p o t e n t i a l f o r wood p r o d u c t i o n limited of  (the scrub bamboo a r e a s ) .  I t occupies 5 p e r c e n t  the f o r e s t e s t a t e . Western and Buganda p r o v i n c e s have the g r e a t e s t  concentration of t r o p i c a l high forests  (Table 33). The  E a s t e r n P r o v i n c e has considerably, l e s s w h i l e P r o v i n c e almost none.  Northern  The d i s t r i c t s Teso, Lango, West  N i l e and Karamoja (two d i s t r i c t s ) have no c l o s e d f o r e s t land  recorded. The areas under f o r e s t p l a n t a t i o n vary l i t t l e a t  the p r o v i n c i a l but s u b s t a n t i a l l y a t the d i s t r i c t Madi and Karamoja have very l i t t l e  plantation.  levels. The  -111TABLE '32 F o r e s t area o f Uganda i n 19 71  F o r e s t Type 1.  T r o p i c a l High F o r e s t s  2.  Plantations  Area  724 ,470  Softwoods 9 252 Eucalpts 9 849 Other hardwoods 2429 T o t a l P l a n t a t i o n Area 3. 4.  221,048  Savanna Woodland  781,722  Other V e g e t a t i o n s (mainly montane neaths, bamboo and wet g r a s s l a n d s ) TOTAL FOREST ESTATE:  Source:  Lockwood C o n s u l t a n t s L t d .  ( i n hectares)  87,514 1,615,754  (1971).  TABLE 33 SUMMARY OF PRESENT DISTRIBUTION OF FORESTS, PLANTATIONS AND SAVANNAH TYPES WITHIN FORESTRY RESERVES IN UGANDA LANDS WHICH HAVE CLOSED FOREST AND/OR PLANTATION STOCK Plantation Closed F o r e s t Pruned area Subtotal Hectares Hectares Hectares  WESTERN PROVINCE ANKOLE BUNJORO KIGEZI TORO TOTAL BUGANDA PROVINCE MASAKA EAST MENGO WEST MENGO MUBENDE TOTAL EASTERN PROVINCE BUGISU SEBEI BUKEDI BUSCGA TESO TOTAL NORTHERN PROVINCE ACHOLI LANGO MADI VEST NILE TOTAL  Source:  Total Area Under F o r e s t r y Reserves Hectares  87377 108122 37052 213649  1377 420 2579 2013  88754 108542 39631 215662  91 58 68 94  1176 53792 16230 8519  7099 23769 2680 4998  8275 77561 18910 13517  9 42 32 6  97029 186103 58541 229179  446200  6389  452589  79  79717  38546  118263  •21  570852  39207 57024 27040 45473  191 1571 2622 228  39398 58595 29662 45701  51 51 78 53  38224 55787 8542 39964  38224 56305 8542 39964  49 49 22 47  77622 114900 38204 85665  168744  4612  173356  518  143035  45  316391  31205 60398 2233 3256  789 492 632 3169 782  31994 60890 2865 6425 782  61 91 55 16 6  16849 12540  20761 5422 2354 16599 194  20761 6277 2354 33448 12734  39 9 45 84 94  52755 67167 5219 39873 13516  97092  5864  102956  58  30244  45330  75574  42  178530  11140  986 1084 12 3000  12126 1084 1306 3000  12 5 4 4  89978 19072. 33097 65418  3120  93098 19072 33097 65418  88 95 96 96  105224 20156 34403 68418  12434  5082  17516  3120  210685  92  228201  101  101  321679  321679  100  321780  724470  22048  746518  46 781722  869236  54  1615754  1294  KARAMOJA TOTAL UGANDA  LANDS WHICH HAVE SAVANNAH, WOODLAND & OTHER TYPES (i•e•Grasslands,Moorlands Savannah & Other ) Woodlands Subtotal Types % Hectares Hectares Hectares %  55 142517  855  8 207565  * This i n c l u d e d r e s e r v e s i n process o f g a z e t t i n g Lockwood Consultants L t d . (1971).  518  87514  -113-  little  t h a t does e x i s t i s mostly i n experimental  plots.  D i s t r i c t s w i t h l a r g e s t p l a n t a t i o n areas are Busoga and West N i l e w i t h 3169 and 3000 ha, r e s p e c t i v e l y .  West  Buganda, K i g e z i and Toro d i s t r i c t s have over 2000 ha each, w h i l e Ankole, over 1,000 ha.  E a s t Buganda and Lango have j u s t  A l l o t h e r d i s t r i c t s have l e s s  than  1000 ha, w i t h Bunyoro, S e i b e i , Mubende and Masaka  having  l e s s than 500 ha. The p o t e n t i a l timber stock area comprises percent  46  (746,518 ha) o f the country's f o r e s t l a n d w h i l e  savanna woodlands, the p r i n c i p a l source o f supply f o r p o l e s and fuelwood, c o n s t i t u t e 48 p e r c e n t .  The  latter  have p o t e n t i a l f o r c h a r c o a l p r o d u c t i o n as w e l l as b e i n g reserve capacity f o r plantation  expansion.  Another s i g n i f i c a n t f e a t u r e o f f o r e s t lands i s the d i s t r i b u t i o n w i t h r e s p e c t to t h e i r s i z e and number by d i s t r i c t s .  Twenty p e r c e n t of the f o r e s t e s t a t e i s  over 5000 ha i n s i z e , twenty two p e r c e n t between 5000 and 500 ha and f i f t y . e i g h t p e r c e n t between 500 and 10 ha.  Buganda Province has the l a r g e s t number o f f o r e s t  l a n d u n i t s i n t o t a l , w h i l e Karamoja dominates i n those of the l a r g e r s i z e category. presented i n Table 34.  These r e s u l t s are r e -  The s p a t i a l d i s t r i b u t i o n and  s i z e of f o r e s t e s t a t e u n i t s have s p e c i a l f o r economic e f f i c i e n c y  significance  (with r e s p e c t to the c o s t o f  a v a i l a b i l i t y and economies of s c a l e ) . Although progress i n e s t a b l i s h m e n t o f Uganda's  TABLE  34  SIZE DISTRIBUTION OF FORESTRY RESERVES IN UGANDA PROVINCE AND DISTRICT WESTERN PROVINCE ANKOLE BUNJORO KIGEZI TORO TOTAL BUGANDA PROVINCE MASAKA EAST MENGO WEST MENGO MUBENDE ;  TOTAL  EASTERN PROVINCE BUGISU SEBEI BUKEDI BUSOGA TESO TOTAL NORTHERN PROVINCE ACHOLI IANGO MADI WEST NILE KARAMOJA TOTAL UGANDA PERCENTAGE Source:  over 5000 ha to 1000 ha (  1000 ha to 500 ha  500 ha to 100 ha Number  100 ha to 10 ha  LESS THAN 10 ha  TOTAL NO. OF RESERVES )  4 4 2 7  2 12 3 9  0 5 0 3  1 18 6 6  6 7 4 5  3 1 2 7  16 47 17 37  17  26  8  31  22  13  117  5 6 1 8  8 13 7 8  4 7 8 6  25 31 35 13  22 15 11 3  4 1 1 0  68 73 63 38  20  36  25  ' 104  51  6  0 0 5 12 ••• • -19  7 0 10 20 17  0 2 2 4 o  242  1 1 0 3 0----  0 0 1 4 2 -  5  7  11  36  54  6  11 3 0 7  3 0 2 9  8 35 2 17  4 26 2 21  19 22 2 7  51 88 11 62  12  4  2  0  1  0  19  . 65  94  61  233  180  75  710  13  9  33  25  11  100  7 1 3 • 1  9  Lockwood Consultants Ltd. (1971)  2 0 1 6 -- • 3-  --  10 3 17 49 41 120  -115-  f'orest e s t a t e was  d e p i c t e d i n F i g u r e 3, a much more  d e t a i l e d a n a l y s i s o f growth by i n d i v i d u a l e s t a t e u n i t s i s shown i n Appendix I I I . all  The o v e r a l l s i z e o f  f o r e s t e s t a t e u n i t s i n c r e a s e d by 25 percent  the p e r i o d 1964 very l i t t l e  to 196 8.  Since then,  there has been  i n c r e a s e , an a d d i t i o n a l 3357 ha.  growth i n the s i z e of the f o r e s t e s t a t e was  The r a p i d contri-  buted mostly by Buganda P r o v i n c e which alone an 8 3 percent i n c r e a s e .  during  achieved  For the r e s t of the  provinces,  growth was  slow and i n some cases a c t u a l d e c l i n e s  occurred.  Between 196 8 and  19 71, e x c i s i o n s from the  n a t i o n a l f o r e s t e s t a t e o c c u r r e d , 978  and  418 ha i n  West Mengo and Lango d i s t r i c t s , r e s p e c t i v e l y .  Minor  d e c l i n e s i n the growth t r e n d o f the f o r e s t e s t a t e o c c u r r e d i n Ankole, Busoga and Karamoja d i s t r i c t s . The  data presented  above are inadequate  for  e s t i m a t i n g the p r o d u c t i v e p o t e n t i a l of the f o r e s t r e serves i n q u e s t i o n .  P r o d u c t i v i t y of a s i t e i s a r e -  f l e c t i o n of s p e c i e s grown, s o i l and c l i m a t i c c o n d i t i o n s and management^.  -116P r o d u c t i v i t y c l a s s e s given i n Table 35 are o n l y r e l e v a n t f o r the c u r r e n t l e v e l of management.  Furthermore,  c l a s s e s should be b r o a d l y i n t e r p r e t e d . firstly,  these  T h i s i s so because,  c l a s s e s were based on s o i l types or groups,  whereby Lockwood C o n s u l t a n t s L t d . (19 71)  assumed p h y s i c a l  s u i t a b i l i t y of s o i l s f o r a g r i c u l t u r e c o u l d be a p p l i e d to t r e e growth. connaisance  Secondly,  the s o i l type maps were o f a r e -  nature and as such not s e n s i t i v e enough to  p r o v i d e more d e t a i l .  However, from the data  available,  29 percent of the f o r e s t e s t a t e i s o f h i g h to medium p r o d u c t i v e c a p a b i l i t y i n terms o f s u p p o r t i n g t r e e growth. About 35 percent  i s - of low p r o d u c t i v i t y .  s i d e s l a n d w i t h h i g h , medium and  Therefore,  low p r o d u c t i v i t y ,  percent o f the f o r e s t e s t a t e has l i t t l e or no capability for afforestation.  36  productive  The main l i m i t a t i o n s  a s s o c i a t e d w i t h u n s u i t a b l e lands are rocky, shallow t r a c t s and the wet  be-  soil  d e p r e s s i o n a l areas.  F i f t y one percent  (827,297 ha)  c o n s i s t s of savanna woodland.  o f the f o r e s t e s t a t e  Of t h i s , 454,500 ha i s  c o n s i d e r e d of h i g h , medium and low p r o d u c t i v i t y  class.  However, when the l i m i t a t i o n s of c l i m a t e are i n c l u d e d , net p r o d u c t i v e area i s reduced  to 276,050  ha o r 34  percent.  An e s t i m a t i o n of the a v a i l a b l e p r o d u c t i v e land w i t h i n savanna r e s e r v e s s u i t a b l e f o r p l a n t a t i o n e s t a b l i s h m e n t or expansion  i s shown i n Table 36.  The  l a r g e s t con-  c e n t r a t i o n of t h i s r e s e r v e c a p a c i t y i s found d i s t r i c t , w h i l e K i g e z i , Toro, Bugisu, d i s t r i c t s , have none.  and/  i n Mubende  Sebei and Karamoja  An Evaluation of the Productivity of Lands Within Forestry Reserves i n Uganda  PROVINCE AND DISTRICTS  TOTAL AREA OF FORESTRY RESERVES HECTARES  I  a  n  d  s  S ^ ^ f  nSvf a ^ p r o -  a  Productivity capacity CLASS 1 CLASS 2 HECTARES % HECTARES  %  . ductivity Opacity TOTAL AREA CLASS 3 CLASS 1 & 2 HECTARES %  WESTERN PROVINCE ' Ankole Dunyoro Kigezi Toro  97029 186103 58541 229179  11912 35184 779 64034  12 19 1 28  13785 5995 1381 6456  14 3 2 _3  25697 41179 2160 70490  69844 142347  72 76  96390  TOTAL  570852  111909  20  27617  _5  139526  77622 111900 38204 85665  466 57273 19632 8113  1 50 51 10  27064 21394 5427 20117  35 19 14 23  316391  85484  27  74002  23  680 8  1 0 0 32 0 _7  41798 40296 2781 17836 2026 104737  79 42478 40304 60 2781 53 30414 45 15 ' 2026 59 118003  NORTHERN PROVINCE 5774 105224 0 Acholi 829 Lango 4 8778 20156 34403 Madi 0 20 2952 West Nile 68418 5052 7 TOTAL 3 17524 228201 5881 KARAMOJA PROVINCE 321780 36634 0 13 260514 1615754 216540 TOTAL UGANDA S o u r c e : Lockwood C o n s u l t a n t s L t d . (19 71).  5774 5 9607 44 20 0 8004 5 8 23405 36634 10 16 487054  BUGANDA PROVINCE Masaka East Mango West Mengo Lubende TOTAL EASTERN PROVINCE Bugisu Sebei Bukedi Busoga Teso TOTAL  52755 67167 5219 39873 13516 • 178530  12578 13266  .  M  S  ^  ^ J  i  t  t  l  e  _  ™ P ^ u c t a v x t y capacity CLASS 6 ..HECTARES % o  r  42  1488 2577 56381 62299  2 1 97 27  308581  54  122745  21  27530 78667 25059 28230  13318 . 15492 5834 37911  36 13 15 44  36774 20741 7311 19524  48 18 20 23  159486  72555  23  84350  27  21 1788 5664 10867 18340  0 0 34 13 80 10  10256 26863 650 3795 623 42187  20 40 13 10 5 24  20718 8102 792 3563 33175 125397 558048  20 40 2 5 15 10 35  78732 2447 33591 56851 171621 159749 580652  75 12 98 83 74 80 36  -118TABLE 36 Summary o f E s t i m a t e d A v a i l a b l e P r o d u c t i v e ' Lands W i t h i n Savannah Reserves i n Uganda  Area Of Plantations Hectares (ha) WESTERN PROVINCE Ankole Bunyoro Kigezi Toro  Productive Land From Savannah Reserve Assessment (ha)  Estimated Available Productive Land Within Savannah Reserves For Plantation Expansion (ha)  1377 420 2579 2013  14,300 33,600 130  12,900 33,180  6389  48,030  46,080  191 1571 2622 228  29,330 48,820 7,160 51,960  29,140 47,250 4,540 51,74 0  4612  137,270  132,670  789 492 6 32 3169 782  720 4,560 32,370 12,890  3,930 29,200 12,100  5864  50,540  45,230  986 1084 12 3000  26,490 17,700 810 11,560  25,500 16,620 790 8,560  Total  5082  56,560  51,470  KARAHOJA PROVINCE  101 297,400  276,050  Total BUGANDA PROVINCE Masaka E a s t Mengo West Mengo Mubende Total EASTERN PROVINCE Bugisu Sebei Bukedi Busoga Teso Total NORTHERN PROVINCE Acholi Lango Madi West N i l e  TOTAL UGANDA  22048  S o u r c e : Lockwood  Consultants  L t d . (1971).  -119-  Another important f e a t u r e of the  f o r e s t resource  is  i t s composition by f o r e s t types', Table 3 7 shows the d i s t r i b u t i o n o f t r o p i c a l h i g h  forests  (THFs) by u t i l i z a t i o n c l a s s e s and p l a n t a t i o n types. i s evident Province  t h a t great r e g i o n a l d i s p a r i t y e x i s t s .  It  Western  appears the most w e l l endowed w i t h both THF  f o r e s t p l a n t a t i o n resources, i s more dominant i n the Province.  The  and  whereas p l a n t a t i o n f o r e s t r y  f o r e s t e s t a t e o f the Northern  remaining p r o v i n c e s  show a mixed p i c t u r e .  I t would s e e m t h e r e f o r e , t h a t the encouragement of ?  f o r e s t r y a c t i v i t i e s to enhance i n c r e a s e s income and  i n r e a l per  d i v e r s i f y the r u r a l economy should be  i n such a way disparity.  designed  as not to accentuate r e g i o n a l economic  The  c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f the  to i t s growing stock and  f o r e s t with  respect  the k i n d o f i n d u s t r i e s i t can  support, i n f l u e n c e the degree to which the resource contribute  to r e g i o n a l and  In a d d i t i o n , other may  capita  may  n a t i o n a l economic development.  factors (including climate  and  soils)  c o n s t r a i n o p t i m i z a t i o n o f a p o s s i b l e economic con-  tribution. of the  The  d i s c u s s i o n on the l o c a t i o n and d i s t r i b u t i o n  f o r e s t area and  i t s productive  potential  and  the  c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f a c t u a l and p o t e n t i a l growing stock, i n d i c a t o r of the p o s s i b l e response t h a t may by expanding f o r e s t r y a c t i v i t i e s .  be  i s an  obtained  If i t i s desired  to  i n c r e a s e the  s i z e of the f o r e s t e s t a t e , a rough index f o r  determining  the l o c a t i o n o f f u t u r e f o r e s t p l a n t a t i o n s i n  Uganda w i l l be  i n d i c a t e d i n Chapter Seven.  TABLE 37  SUMMARY OF AREAS Utilization 1 WESTERN PROVINCE Ankole Bunyoro Kigezi Toro BUGANDA PROVINCE Masaka East Buganda West Buganda Mubende EASTERN PROVINCE Bugisu Sebei Bukedi Busoga Teso NORTHERN PROVINCE Acholi Lango Madi West Nile KARAMOJA PROVINCE South North TOTAL  UGANDA (ha) (%) U t i l i z a t i o n st, -us  OF  TROPICAL HIGH FORESTS  Status  2  (THF)  Categories 3  Total THF  4  AND  PLANTATION  Eucalyptus Fuel and Pole Plantations  FORESTS  Softwood .Plantations  OF UGANDA Hardwood Plantations  Productive Firelings  Total Plantation  51 2 125 94  1377 450 2574 2013  10  1571 2622 228  ( 13126 82618 66481  27182 25504 388 800  46891 31323a 22715  22356  178 5341 101297  87,377 113,463 31,711 213,649  29 175 237 176  1036 269 2203 1743  191  39207  39,207  180  84064  84,064 45,473  711 68 165  773 615  45473  87 1939 53  93,836  1120  649  122  1891  3256  2711 683  132 99  326  3169 782  11140  11,140  255 228  344 230  1294  1294  387 626 12 1102  986 1084 12 3000  663  10000  71957  11216 3256  101  1684  214  101  331,632 63,874 124579 25612 178773 724470 9879 9247 2429 496 22051 46 9 17 3 25 100 45 42 11 2 100 c a t e g o r i e s 1 - 5 a r e based on economic a c c e s s i b i l i t y w i t h c l a s s e s 1 to 3 b e i n g c u r r e n t l y e x p l o i t e d Source: Lockwood C o n s u l t a n t s L t d (1971) .  - 1 2 1 -  4.30  Species Composition, the Growing Roundwood Supply  Stock and  The t r o p i c a l f o r e s t areas are composed of an admixture o f s p e c i e s  (about 500), but o n l y a few of  them are o f any commercial importance.  Species whose  timbers are h i g h q u a l i t y and^therefore^commonly  used  f o r f u r n i t u r e i n c l u d e : Chlorophora e x c e l s a Benth. and Hook f . , Eritandrophragma spp. Khaya spp.  (such as  Khaya arithotheca C. DC), P l e a spp., F a g a r o p s i s a h g o l e n s i s Greenway, A l b i z i a c o r i a r i a Welw., Lovoa H o i o p t e l e a grand!s M i l d b r .  spp.,  These s p e c i e s are  c h a r a c t e r i s t i c a l l y slow growing. The main s p e c i e s used f o r g e n e r a l purpose a r e : A n t i a r i s t o x i c a r i a , Rumph ex  plywood  (Pers.) Lesch, Canarium  s c h w e i n f u r t h i i E n g l . , Pycnanthus a n g o l e n s i s (Welw.) E x c e l l . and C e l t i s spp. (Hiern) Hams and Funtumia t i a l l y good plywood  In a d d i t i o n , P o l y s i c i a s  fulva  spp. are c o n s i d e r e d poten-  species.  However, the l a s t  s p e c i e s together w i t h Maesopsis e m i n i i E n g l .  two  are  c u r r e n t l y used i n l a r g e q u a n t i t i e s f o r match making. C o l l e c t i v e l y , t h i s group o f s p e c i e s are f a s t  growing  l i g h t demanders t h a t get e l i m i n a t e d when a t r o p i c a l h i g h f o r e s t reaches a climax s t a t e . Cynometra a l e x a n d r i i C H .  Wright  (an a t t r a c t i v e and  heavy wood w i t h a h i g h r e s i s t a n c e to wear),  Parinari  e x c e l s a Sabine ( c u r r e n t l y the main source o f mining timber), Erythrophleum guineense G. Don and H o l o p t e l e a  -122g r a n d i s M i l d b r . are the most important able f o r f l o o r i n g .  species  suit-  F i n a l l y , a very wide range of  s p e c i e s i s used to p r o v i d e timber  for construction  and  joinery. I n d i v i d u a l t r o p i c a l high f o r e s t s d i f f e r with to the amount of s t o c k i n g by the s p e c i e s above. example, C. a l e x a n d r i i i s a climax  respect For  s p e c i e s i n Bugoma,  Maramagambo, S e m l i k i and Budongo f o r e s t s ; whereas P a r i n a r i e x c e l s a forms the dominant s p e c i e s i n K i b a l e Itwara,  K a l i n z u and Kasyoha-Kitomi f o r e s t s (see F i g u r e  5 f o r l o c a t i o n of these  forests).  There are p l a n t a t i o n s o f both c o n i f e r o u s and coniferous species.  The main ones are:  (1) pines  non(P.  p a t u l a S c h l . Cham., P. c a r i b a e a M o r e l e t var. hondurensis, P. oocarpa and P. r a d i a t a D. Don): lusitanica M i l l . ) ;  (3) e u c a l y p t s  (2) cypress (Eucalyptus  (Cupressus  grandis  ( H i l l ) Maiden, E. t e r e t i c o r n i s Dehnh and E.  robusta  Smith);  (Maesopsis  and  (4) indigenous  eminii Engl.).  The  hardwood s p e c i e s  c h o i c e of these  s p e c i e s and provenance t r i a l s b, c, d and  s p e c i e s was  based on  (Kriek, 1976a and b;  1968a,  e).  To determine the amount of timber THFs, an enumeration i s normally i n t e n s i t y of 1% by a r e a .  The  a v a i l a b l e i n the  c a r r i e d out a t a sampling  data are recorded f o r i n d i v i -  dual or groups of s p e c i e s depending on t h e i r and marketing c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s  desirability  (Dawkins, 1958).  A major  enumeration o f the THFs of Uganda was carried out in /the early  EXISTING AND NCRflC SOFTWOOD PLANTATIONS AN3 SOFTWOOD SA'.VMILUS  T»5prtl, H*CH FOREST RESERVES ICO MWC* WCCD »RCCESS'N5 FACILITIES X-Tt • tfc?lcr.l Ri.H Jercat  A  #  SavnU 1»  D  fjyve-d Hill  ( «r S /  WOOD r.^..—  /  3. fcillmu  'c  3.000 **  3,003 ** 1,800 * 1C.500 ** 5,500 *  t.  8. SIV.h Tridents  I.  /I  £00 * 4,000 *  10. K.-.^Jn<Il 710 * 11. 157 • 13. Enst African 8,000 *• 1,500 • t^r.knta l,3M **  J  )  1  /  /• 'C  ;,*eo *  i  5.3:0 * Sikh Sikh rij'vcsd Hill  /  1.350 *  j.:cd »  ...J  r.ico *  • **  )  500 *•  If.  t.\^  —  '—3  Pred^ctle:! 196? - 1970 Proli-e-.ic:) 19 0 - 1971 (in cvtle Mi)  rO CO I  Mad: Trr«t. UE  J. "^•-.iS'Ti." r«re«:. » C 5.ICC *r* - 1973 +  j.  RtiiftTj Htm,  MS  r  - 1*73 *  v.-*-T\.-K'.zrzl Tart*:. A.*: : « . « * - 1573 •  •?. Mitle-rr-in  *c;t»-.  1. Xafiiga Plantation  10. ZcVa TaresE, AAC 900 t? 1973 - 2000  - 1973 *  :.  MS K . t t S >f - 1?73 • 1  11. L«*f^ore 7or»r!.(:«. AAC 7,POO Jf1 :2.  Tirej;. AAC  - 1991 1971 - 19?3  13. '-ent yengo Tqreits, MC.ll.^ro I»73 - I9«3 9.00A r \**L - 3^00 li.  y«btr« Ter-a:, AAC 15.7'-0 1?7] - 1953 9,000 K 1994 - 2P10  13.  Zl|cn rereads,fl,5AC^ 3 1973  1*.  JCinstill Tcrtnt,  AAC 2,'"0 M3 1S73 - 1^87  17. Busoga PuMlc Lwds, AAC - 6,100 M  y.st-jr.a S3v^lll3  (1.3C0  yj JT.TV,  9. C?lt. Civil Fl*r*.a-.l  1970-71)  10. Ka>:>'.rp P!f.r'.it!ca  2. KuKo Plan'.ntlcfv 3. Bu£ar.b.i -P.vr'^o riaatatlco 4. Klbale Flantntlcn 5. Hvcn(;e Croup Plantations  -  SCO >a. iOO V.a. 1,203 h « .  KyrJiete S.^Tills  (l.:-00 H3 s-vn. 1970-71)  AAC - A.-.r.ual Allwable Cut  FIGURE 5. L o c a t i o n o f t h e m a j o r THFs a n d s o f t w o o d Source.  Lcckwood C o n s u l t a n t s L t d . ( 1 9 7 3 ) .  p l a n t a t i o n a r e a s a n d e x i s t i n g wood p r o c e s s i n g  facilities.  -124fifties  (1951-55) and more r e c e n t l y by Lockwood  Consultants Ltd.  (1971).  There i s no r e l i a b l e i n f o r m a t i o n about t o t a l increment  i n the THFs.  An average diameter  increment  f o r an i n d i v i d u a l t r e e has been estimated a t c a . 1.0 per year over a ten year p e r i o d .  In mature  u n e x p l o i t e d f o r e s t , net increment  f o r a stand i s  approximately  cm  (climax)  zero; whereas, i n a f o r e s t t h a t has been  e x p l o i t e d and r e f i n e d , stand increment 3 4.2 M /ha/annum o f marketable timber.  i s about 2.1  to  I f a harvested  area i s e n r i c h e d by p l a n t i n g , a mean annual 3  increment  of 7 M /ha/annum i s f e a s i b l e . The  volume of timber i n THFs recorded by  the  Uganda F o r e s t Department does not r e f e r to the t o t a l . volume o f the growing stock.  Rather,  t h i s volume i s the  r e l i a b l e minimum estimate of e x p l o i t a b l e volume above a diameter  l i m i t , u s u a l l y 50 to 60 cm.  The  timbers  are  normally d i v i d e d i n t o two groups, those which are comp u l s o r y to c u t and those f o r which c u t t i n g i s o p t i o n a l . The main c r i t e r i o n f o r c l a s s i f y i n g a s p e c i e s "compulsory" i s i t s market v a l u e . To meet the aims o f management f o r the c o n v e r s i o n of the THFs o f Uganda i n t o a uniform system and  put  timber p r o d u c t i o n on a s u s t a i n e d y i e l d b a s i s , the volume o f wood c u t a n n u a l l y i s l i m i t e d .  The  limit i s related  to the annual volume of compulsory s p e c i e s t h a t can harvested, w h i l e  o t h e r s p e c i e s can be c u t without  be any  -125l i m i t i n volume, but are l i m i t e d to the area where the compulsory s p e c i e s w i l l be c u t i n a g i v e n year. Where s u f f i c i e n t data have been c o l l e c t e d about the growth c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s , annual increment and  ex-  pected y i e l d f o r a l l the main s p e c i e s i n Uganda's f o r e s t p l a n t a t i o n s , a c c u r a t e data on growing stock timber  supply can be worked out.  The main study on  growth and y i e l d o f softwoods was Kingston  c a r r i e d out  (1973) and more s p e c i f i c a l l y , K a r a n i  f o r P. p a t u l a and Karani  and  (1976b) f o r C.  the  by (1976a)  lusitanica.  A much more comprehensive y i e l d s i m u l a t i o n model  de-  veloped by A d l a r d and A l d e r  (1975) a t the Commonwealth  Forestry Institute  i s now  (Oxford)  a v a i l a b l e f o r the  main softwood s p e c i e s grown i n E a s t e r n A f r i c a  (Kenya,  Malawi, Tanzania  since  and Uganda).  Unfortunately,  p l a n t a t i o n s of P. c a r i b a e a are s t i l l stage, t h i s s p e c i e s was  a t the j u v e n i l e  not i n c l u d e d i n the above model.  However, from r e s e a r c h elsewhere, Lamb (1973) t h a t there are many l a r g e areas  observed  from the Equator to  30°  south or north where P. c a r i b a e a can produce a mean 3  annual increment of 17.5  to 21 M  per hectare  up to the age o f 15 years a t l e a s t .  underbark  T h i s compares very  w e l l w i t h the mean annual increment f o r P. p a t u l a which 3  v a r i e s from 9.9 The  to 21 M /ha  (Wormald, 1975).  growth c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s and expected  yield for  E. g r a n d i s and Maesopsis e m i n i i have been r e p o r t e d by Kingston  (1972) and Kingston  (1974), r e s p e c t i v e l y .  The  range of mean annual increment v a l u e s f o r M. e m i n i i 3 were 3 to 20 M /ha depending on the s i t e and age of the stand.  E. g r a n d i s has shown a range of mean 3  annual increment The  values of 50-90 M /ha/annum.  supply schedule of roundwood i s d i f f i c u l t  to  assess f o r a country l i k e Uganda where there i s a l a c k o f adequate i n v e n t o r y and a w e l l developed  market.  A p r i c e i n c r e a s e f o r roundwood would mean b r i n g i n g more marginal  land i n t o p r o d u c t i o n .  The a d d i t i o n a l volumes  produced are l i k e l y to c o s t more.  On the o t h e r hand,  i n t e n s i f i c a t i o n of management through cheaper s i l v i c u l t u r a l and hanced y i e l d s through  such means as  l o g g i n g o p e r a t i o n s and  g e n e t i c improvement and  fertili-  s a t i o n , would make wood more a v a i l a b l e a t reduced O v e r - c u t t i n g i s another a supply schedule.  en-  cost.  c o m p l i c a t i o n to e s t a b l i s h m e n t of  I t would i n i t i a l l y r e s u l t i n cheaper  wood, but t h e r e a f t e r become more expensive. The c o s t of growing timber i n c l u d e s not o n l y t h a t of r e s o u r c e s used on the land f o r v a r i o u s o p e r a t i o n s i n stand e s t a b l i s h m e n t and growth, but a l s o i n t e r e s t on the c a p i t a l . ownership.  The  charged  T h i s r a t e of i n t e r e s t i s dependent on area of softwood p l a n t a t i o n s d i s t r i b u t e d  by s p e c i e s and age  i s shown i n Table 38.  C u r r e n t l y , P.  p a t u l a P. c a r i b a e a and E. g r a n d i s are the main p l a n t a t i o n s p e c i e s being encouraged due  to t h e i r f a v o u r a b l e growth  c h a r a c t e i s t i c s on the p r e s e n t and p o t e n t i a l s i t e s Figure 6).  P. oocarpa  (see  grows w e l l on s i t e s s u i t a b l e f o r  -127P. c a r i b a e a and may i n f u t u r e prove to be a v a l u a b l e substitute.  Apart  from the s u i t a b i l i t y o f these  s p e c i e s to grow w e l l on the s i t e s i n d i c a t e d above, another important  f a c t o r i s t h e i r a b i l i t y to produce  wood f i t f o r the products According  t o Plumptre  demanded by s o c i e t y . (1975) , P. p a t u l a i s not  s u i t e d f o r use as t r a n s m i s s i o n p o l e s b u t i t i s f o r fence  posts.  -128TABLE 38 AREA OF SOFTWOOD PLANTATIONS I N ^UGANDA DISTRIBUTED.-BY. S P E C I E S AND AGE ( f c h a ) TABLE A I X Age i n 1971  Pinus Patula  1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29  125 366 321 196 186 297 263 201 293 248 191 197 151 112 73 113 43 22 51 13  6  -  --  8 15 31 24 25 36 64 48 24 36 45 24 3 45 27 8 7 8  Pinus Caribaea 304 394 281 177 64 83 75 46 25 30 —  — — — —  2 — — — —  —  —  —  —  —  —  —  —  —  —  —  —  —  —  —  —  —  —  —  —  2  —  1 485  Other Pines 97 34 18 8 26 27 18 6 17 20 3  —  —  TOTAL 3468 Source:  Pinus Radiata  7 6 2 8 15 9 8 3  1  Cupressue spp.  Total Pines  Total Softwood  294 415 283 172 221 150 199 139 136 45 77 51 56 33 35 60 26 54 173 152 128 85 52 76 20  536 794 628 396 307 431 381 289 399 346 218 233 203 142 78 166 87 39 66 24 — — — 3 —  830 1209 911 568 528 581 580 423 535 391 295 284 259 175 113 226 113 93 239 176 128 85 52 79 20  3134  5767  8901  —  1481  Lockwood C o n s u l t a n t s L t d .  333 (1971).  F I G U R E 6:  Areas I d e n t i f i e d S u i t a b l e f o r Growing p i n e s and c y p r e s s i n Uganda . _  pimjj  Sou r e e :  Kingston  (197*a)  Eucalypts, pctt[c  -130-  Due  to the c o n t r a s t of c o l o u r between e a r l y and  wood, the wood i s a p p r o p r i a t e purposes.  late  f o r panel-ling and  decorative  In a d d i t i o n , the wood i s good f o r p a r t i c l e b o a r d  manufacture ,  ' g i v e s a board of good s t r e n g t h ,  and  not r e t a r d the s e t t i n g of cement a p p r e c i a b l y and t h e r e f o r e , be used s a t i s f a c t o r i l y cement s l a b s and  boards.  pulped i n Kenya and grades o f paper. separated  during  P. p a t u l a  i t does"  can,  f o r making wood-wool., i s already  being  the pulp i s good f o r making most  F i n a l l y , i f the outer and  i n n e r woods are  sawing, the i n n e r can be used f o r non-  s t r u c t u r a l a p p l i c a t i o n s and  the outer f o r s t r u c t u r a l purposes,  j o i n e r y , l i g h t f u r n i t u r e and even l i g h t duty f l o o r i n g . j u v e n i l e core can be used f o r purposes such as l i g h t and.crate manufacture, p a n e l l i n g , weather boarding,  The  box shingles  and cheap joinery ' where the s t r e n g t h i s adequate f o r the purpose. it  Because the wood i s easy to t r e a t w i t h  can be made durable P. c a r i b a e a  and  suitable for external  preservatives, use.  has not been e x t e n s i v e l y used i n Uganda  s i n c e most of the p l a n t a t i o n s are a t t h e i r j u v e n i l e However, a c c o r d i n g d i c a t e s t h a t pulp purposes  to Lamb (1973), r e s e a r c h elsewhere i n from t h i s s p e c i e s i s s u i t a b l e f o r  including kraft  pulp  packaging papers and boards. mechanical stain.  pulp  stage.  many  f o r the manufacture of The  production  of  w i l l require e f f e c t i v e control  of  blue-  A h i g h q u a l i t y p a r t i c l e b o a r d has been prepared from  thinnings of plantations i n F i j i .  From these r e s u l t s ,  -131-  Lamb (1973) concluded the  following:  "With c o r r e c t s e l e c t i o n of seed sources and of s i t e s , and w i t h a p p r o p r i a t e s i l v i c u l t u r a l management, p l a n t a t i o n grown P. c a r i b a e a should p r o v i d e m a t e r i a l s u i t a b l e f o r the manufacture of packaging papers and boards, f o r f i b r e b o a r d s and chipboards, f o r j o i n e r y and f o r c o n s t r u c t i o n a l timbers".  E u c a l y p t u s g r a n d i s i n Uganda has been used predominantly  f o r the supply of fuelwood,  t r a n s m i s s i o n p o l e s and fence p o s t s .  building  Plumptre  and  (1965) s t u d i e d  the p o t e n t i a l f o r sawing p l a n t a t i o n grown E. s a l i g n a species  was  i n f a c t E. g r a n d i s and t h e amendment-  has  s i n c e then been made).  was  p o s s i b l e to o b t a i n good q u a l i t y sawnwood from  eucalypt.  (this  His c o n c l u s i o n was  The wood i s d e c o r a t i v e and once  p r o p e r l y has good working p r o p e r t i e s .  that i t this  seasoned  The main problem  occurs during seasoning when d e f e c t s are p a r t i c u l a r l y h i g h i n the o l d e r , denser wood.  T h e r e f o r e , Plumptre  advocated  the use of young f a s t grown t r e e s with l o g s over 30 diameter. of pulp In  E., g r a n d i s may  cm  a l s o be used f o r the manufacture'  (Lockwood C o n s u l t a n t s L t d . , 1971). t h i s s e c t i o n , the estimate g i v e n r e p r e s e n t s the  p h y s i c a l supply p o t e n t i a l m o d i f i e d by minimum diameter cost considerations.  and  I d e a l l y such a f o r e c a s t should begin  -132with i n v e n t o r y o f the f o r e s t r e s o u r c e s  (woodland area,  volume and increment.) and take i n t o account such f a c t o r s as a c c e s s i b i l i t y , demand f o r f o r e s t land f o r o t h e r  uses'  and  areas o f n o n - f o r e s t land which might be made a v a i l a b l e  for  afforestation. From the d i s c u s s i o n s i n the p r e v i o u s s e c t i o n , t h e r e  are f i v e sources o f roundwood supply i n Uganda: t r o p i c a l h i g h f o r e s t s , u n c o n t r o l l e d hardwoods o u t s i d e the f o r e s t e s t a t e , softwood p l a n t a t i o n s , p o l e s and fuelwood p l a n t a t i o n s and  savanna woodlands.  T r o p i c a l high f o r e s t s a r e d i v i d e d  i n t o f i v e c a t e g o r i e s based on economic a c c e s s i b i l i t y classes  (Lockwood C o n s u l t a n t s , L t d . , 1971) .  Currently  c a t e g o r i e s 1 and 2 a r e under systematic management and e x p l o i t a t i o n .  Category  3 i s potentially  developable,  w h i l e c a t e g o r i e s 4 and 5 have been c o n s i d e r e d uneconomic based on c u r r e n t u t i l i z a t i o n standards i n d u s t r i a l roundwood.  and the demand f o r  Due t o l a c k o f knowledge o f market-  a b i l i t y o f lesser—known s p e c i e s , the f o r e c a s t ' o f roundwood supply from t r o p i c a l high f o r e s t s has a great d e a l o f u n c e r t a i n t y a s s o c i a t e d with i t . t e c h n o l o g i c a l progress regarded  a lower bound.  However, assuming  i n the f u t u r e , the estimate may be Hardwood i n d u s t r i a l roundwood  removals o u t s i d e the f o r e s t e s t a t e are even more d i f f i c u l t to e s t i m a t e . pitsawyers b i g , mainly  T h i s r e s o u r c e i s p r e s e n t l y u t i l i z e d by  and u n l i c e n c e d small sawmills unrecorded  r u r a l market.  made f o r roundwood supply from t h i s  to s a t i s f y the  No estimate w i l l be source.  -133At the moment, softwood p l a n t a t i o n s c o n t r i b u t e a small p o r t i o n o f the roundwood requirements o f the wood i n d u s t r y  (mainly  sawmilling).  However, by the year  2000, a f o r e c a s t by Lockwood C o n s u l t a n t s  L t d . (1971)  i n d i c a t e d i t w i l l r i s e t o over 80 p e r c e n t . p o t e n t i a l supply  True/ the  from softwood p l a n t a t i o n s i s easy t o  c a l c u l a t e i n g r e a t e r d e t a i l and accuracy,; however, these c a l c u l a t i o n s w i l l depend on assumptions made w i t h  regard  to management i n t e n s i t y and y i e l d s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h  site  q u a l i t y o f the v a r i o u s p l a n t a t i o n s f o r d i f f e r e n t s p e c i e s . Roundwood from p u b l i c l y owned p l a n t a t i o n s i s easy t o estimate.  With no p u b l i c c o n t r o l over management and  h a r v e s t i n g o f p r i v a t e l y e s t a b l i s h e d p l a n t a t i o n s , i t i s not possible to  a c c u r a t e l y estimate roundwood supply  private .sector.  Finally,  savanna woodlands c o n s t i t u t e  the main source of poles and fuelwood supply r u r a l population. and  Therefore, above.  t>  inventoried,.;  from them should  be  based on the sources of roundwood mentioned l a c k o f adequate  and economic a c c e s s i b i l i t y f a c t o r s , Lockwood  Consultants supply  f o r the  as a rough i n d i c a t o r .  and t a k i n g i n t o c o n s i d e r a t i o n  inventory  4.40  These woodlands a r e p o o r l y  an estimate of roundwood supply  regarded o n l y  from the  Ltd.,  (1971)/,: f o r e c a s t p o t e n t i a l roundwood  t o the year 2000, as shown i n Table 39 and  Figure,7.  Summary Uganda i s not an i d e a l ( o r Utopian) s t a t e where  population  i s of such dimensions and d i s t r i b u t i o n t h a t a l l  TABLE 39 A v a i l a b l e S u p p l y o f Roundwood f o r Uganda t o t h e Year 2000  THF* Cat.l Year 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000  THF* Cat.2-3 M 3  M  3  104,800  Total Fuel ^ r  3  20,000  120,000  180,000  5,000  298,000  211,000  145,000  16,000  372,000  5,000  1,000,000  85,000  311,400  218,000  145,000  16,000  379,000  5,000  1,000,000  110,000  327,000  218,000  145,000  11,000  374,000  800,000  148,000  4,000  60,000  379,000  211,000  145,000  11,000  4,000  800,000  200,000  367,000  60,000  479,800  218,000  145,000  11,000  4,000  800,000  315,000  374,000  60,000  924,800  211,000  145,000  1,000  4,000  800,000  760,000  357,000  60,000  These voluttes are for nerchantable wood only, 50 on. diameter and over. I t i s estimated that the volume of wood under the 50 cm. diameter runs a t about 200 M per hectare. This volume i s indicated i n Column 11 of this table.. Source:  3  3  Residual Volume From THF (200 « /H*->  40,000  201,400  104,800  M  *** Area Cut Annually w***™  160,000  213,500  119,300  3  Total, THF & Softwood ^3  Private Fuel and Poles Bush** Plantations Fuel Stock M M  10,000  150,000  119,300  Softwood Plantations M  Poles and Fuel Plantations o f Forestry Dept. 3_  3  Irx;kwood Consultants Ltd. (1971) .  The Bush Fuel Stock i s an estimate of the volume of wood on a few selected areas of savannah woodland designated for fuel supply. The quantity of wood on the savannah woodlands over the whole country i s unknown.  This volume i s an estimate only,' includes a l l species under 50 cm. diameter, stems and branch wood and can be used for charcoal production.  i U)  -135-  -1'36-  users o f land have t h e i r optimum requirements, n e i t h e r more nor l e s s than they need. Land being an e s s e n t i a l non-renewable for in  mankind, and i n f a c t the " l i f e blood" the country,  resource o f the peasants  i t s a l l o c a t i o n to v a r i o u s use c a t e g o r i e s  should be c a r r i e d out i n such a way as to maximize s o c i a l welfare. T h i s r e q u i r e s the i d e n t i f i c a t i o n o f a s o c i a l w e l fare function.  Unfortunately,  there i s no unique de-  f i n i t i o n o f such a f u n c t i o n t h a t can be maximized t o achieve the "best"  f o r everyone.  A g r i c u l t u r e i s the dominant land use a t the moment. However, w i t h  i n c r e a s e d economic a c t i v i t y o t h e r l a n d use  commitments w i l l land.  a l s o i n c r e a s e t h e i r demand f o r more  Therefore,  the  surplus  land  and the  low  l e v e l o f u t i l i z a t i o n o f c u l t i v a b l e land, are a t temporary and c o n s t i t u t e an " a r t i f i c i a l Considerable  best  surplus".  debate has p e r s i s t e d over how much  f o r e s t land a country  needs o r should have.  The answer  does not l i e i n an a r b i t r a r y s i z e , nor i s an index o f p e r c a p i t a f o r e s t l a n d an adequate measure. are t a i n t e d with  These approaches  s e l f - s u f f i c i e n c y c o n s i d e r a t i o n s , which  may i n f a c t l e a d to economic i n e f f i c i e n c y . there i s no need f o r a country at  to have any f o r e s t e s t a t e  a l l , i f i t can i n the long-run  services obtainable production.  Theoretically  import the goods and  from f o r e s t s cheaper than i t s own  In p r a c t i c e , a minimum f o r e s t area c o u l d be  •=-13 7.-  set aside. On the o t h e r hand, i f there i s an e x p l i c i t or p l i c i t advantage i n a r e g i o n having i t s own  im-  productive  f o r e s t s , then the laws of economics suggest t h a t as much l a n d should be a l l o c a t e d to f o r e s t r y as i s e c o n o m i c a l l y f e a s i b l e and e f f i c i e n t .  Most l a n d a l l o c a t i o n  practices  l i e between these two extremes, and are i n f l u e n c e d by degree of i n t e n s i f i c a t i o n of management. i n Chapter  Two  and the one  From d i s c u s s i o n s  i n t h i s chapter, the 8 p e r c e n t  minimum a r e a f o r Uganda's f o r e s t estate, seems  inadequate.  There i s a need to i n c r e a s e t h i s area, but by how w i l l depend on the management s t r a t e g y adopted' case w i l l vary over time.  the  An attempt  much  and i n any  a t the assessment of  the s i z e o f the e x t r a area needed w i l l be c a r r i e d out i n subsequent p a r t s of the The  thesis.  supply schedule f o r roundwood i s d i f f i c u l t  to  work out, e s p e c i a l l y i n a country l i k e Uganda where there i s l a c k of adequate i n v e n t o r y and a f a i r l y pattern.  s t a b l e demand  The c o s t of growing timber depends on the c o s t  o f r e s o u r c e s used on the land f o r v a r i o u s o p e r a t i o n s i n stand e s t a b l i s h m e n t and growth p l u s i n t e r e s t charged capital.  on  However, the a p p r o p r i a t e r a t e o f i n t e r e s t f o r  Uganda i s unknown ( t h i s i s s u e w i l l be d i s c u s s e d f u r t h e r i n Chapter  6).  Finally,  s u p p l i e s of wood from  o u t s i d e Uganda (import content)  are unknown.  sources A l l these  f a c t o r s are sources of u n c e r t a i n t y f o r a t r u e estimate o f the supply schedule.  T h e r e f o r e , the data presented i n t h i s  -138-  chapter r e f e r r e d to the p h y s i c a l supply. I t seems obvious t h a t supply w i l l depend very much on softwood in  future.  p l a n t a t i o n s which e x i s t now  or could be  established  -139-  CHAPTER NOTES  1.  In response Strategy".  t o the Government's FAO (1975) .  2.  S t a t e m e n t f r o m M i n i s t r y o f P l a n n i n g and E c o n o m i c D e v e l o p m e n t , N a t i o n a l O v e r v i e w Phase I ( U n p u b l i s h e d ) .  3.  Although the c u r r e n t t e r m i n o l o g y i s " f o r e s t r e s e r v e s " , t h i s may have a c o n n o t a t i o n o f " p r e s e r v a t i o n " and, t h e r e f o r e , the term ' f o r e s t e s t a t e ' i s used here.  4.  T r o u p (1940) s t a t e d : "During the e a r l i e r y e a r s o f i t s e x i s t e n c e a f o r e s t department should c o n c e n t r a t e i t s e n e r g i e s on f o r e s t r e s e r v a t i o n t o t h e u t m o s t e x t e n t p o s s i b l e " (p. 125) "Wherever p o s s i b l e , t h e r e f o r e , r e s e r v a t i o n s h o u l d p r o c e e d i n a d v a n c e o f any i m m e d i a t e p r e s s u r e on t h e l a n d " (p. 1 2 7 ) .  5.  "Because o f Uganda's d e p e n d e n c e on a g r i c u l t u r e , (the) r a p i d d e v e l o p m e n t ( o f t h e c o u n t r y ) , and t h e continuing increase of i t s population, i t i s necessary t o l i m i t t h e s i z e o f t h e f o r e s t e s t a t e t o t h e minimum a r e a w h i c h w i l l a c h i e v e t h e p r i m a r y a i m s o f management". (Emphasis m i n e ) . Uganda F o r . D e p t . A n n u a l R e p o r t (1949).  6.  T h i s i n c r e a s e was due t o i n c l u s i o n o f t h e p r e v i o u s ' L o c a l Government F o r e s t R e s e r v e s ' o f Buganda Kingdom i n t o ' C e n t r a l Government F o r e s t R e s e r v e s ' , a f t e r Uganda became a R e p u b l i c i n 1967. T h e r e f o r e , i t does n o t r e p r e s e n t an e f f e c t i v e i n c r e a s e i n t i m b e r s u p p l y a t t h e n a t i o n a l l e v e l , b u t m e r e l y a change i n o w n e r s h i p .  7.  P r o d u c t i v i t y here  refers  "Double  t o wood o u t p u t  Production  only.  -14 0-  CHAPTER FIVE  5.00  INTENSIVE MANAGEMENT IN FOREST PLANTATIONS  5.10  J u s t i f i c a t i o n f o r I n t e n s i v e Management In P a r t I (Chapters One  i t was  to Four) o f t h i s  thesis,  shown t h a t the economy of Uganda needs d i -  v e r s i f i c a t i o n and an expansion  of the export s e c t o r .  F o r e s t Products have t r a d i t i o n a l l y been regarded s t r a t e g i c r e s o u r c e s , and thus the need f o r ciency.  as  self-suffi-  A s t r a t e g i c resource i s a n a t i o n a l a s s e t t h a t  has g r e a t p o t e n t i a l i n f l u e n c e on the economic h e a l t h of  the n a t i o n over time  ( F l o r a , 1973).  In a d d i t i o n ,  it  i s b e l i e v e d , s i n c e the country does possess a com-  p a r a t i v e advantage i n exports of prime grade mahoganies within eastern A f r i c a  (Lockwood C o n s u l t a n t s L t d . ,  1971)  and t o g e t h e r w i t h the o t h e r c o u n t r i e s i n t h i s r e g i o n can grow e x o t i c f o r e s t s p e c i e s a t c o m p e t i t i v e world  prices  (Osara, 1963), the f o r e s t r y s e c t o r should be used as a means of export expansion. (domestic and export)  T h e r e f o r e , a two-pronged  s t r a t e g y i s advocated.  U n f o r t u n a t e l y , before the mid-1960's there g r e a t e r r e l i a n c e on the THFs to supply both the and export requirements  was domestic  and the f o r e s t p l a n t a t i o n s  -141e s t a b l i s h e d were regarded as "compensatory". timber requirements  are governed  p o l i t i c a l and s o c i a l f a c t o r s .  by complex economic,  G e n e r a l l y , a country  needs adequate s u p p l i e s o f timber to s a t i s f y p u b l i c economic i n t e r e s t .  Future  long-run  In a c o m p e t i t i v e economy,  d e t e r m i n a t i o n o f the o p t i m a l q u a n t i t y o f timber should i d e a l l y be based on long-run supply and demand c o n s i d e r a tions . Assuming a f i x e d f o r e s t land a r e a , the supply curve should be q u i t e e l a s t i c with r e s p e c t t o changes i n c o s t at the lower l e v e l s of annual y i e l d and become i n c r e a s i n g l y i n e l a s t i c as management i s extended  to poorer  (see F i g u r e 8 ) . Using the supply f u n c t i o n  sites  (SS), an e s t i -  mate of the output l e v e l r e q u i r e d to a v o i d needless l o n g run timber shortages may then be made. correspond to the output l e v e l  T h i s should  ( Q ) a t which c o s t s f o r the q  most expensive u n i t s o f wood produced  w i l l j u s t be covered  by the expected market p r i c e o f the output. i n excess o f Q  q  Any q u a n t i t y  w i l l r e q u i r e spending more t o produce  u n i t s than the p u b l i c i s w i l l i n g t o pay f o r . hand, i f l e s s i s produced  some  On the other  than Q , p r i c e s would be un-  n e c e s s a r i l y higher than the c o s t s o f producing the most expensive u n i t s .  To i d e n t i f y output l e v e l Q , an estimate  of the long-run demand schedule  (DD) should be made.  This  i n v o l v e s e s s e n t i a l l y a f o r e c a s t o f f u t u r e stumpage r a t e s (Vaux, 1973).  Average annual Growth And H a r v e s t (M ) 3  F I G U R E , 8..  T h e I n f l u e n c e o f I n t e n s i v e Management o n t h e P r o d u c t i o n Goal f o r Timber  - i 43-  In Uganda, due  to an i m p e r f e c t timber market,  p r o j e c t i o n s c a r r i e d out were those of demand and  supply,  assuming p r i c e s d i d not r i s e r e l a t i v e to other commodities.  Table 4 0 shows t h a t aggregate  consumption of  f o r e s t products c o u l d , by the year 2 000, i n c r e a s e from 3 about 13.9 m i l l i o n m i n 1971 to a medium v a l u e of 43 3 m i l l i o n m , w i t h low and h i g h estimates of 28 and m i l l i o n c u b i c metres, r e s p e c t i v e l y equivalent).  54  ( a l l i n roundwood  However, a g r e a t e r p r o p o r t i o n of t h i s  will  be used as fuelwood and c h a r c o a l whose a c t u a l supply f u n c t i o n i s d i f f i c u l t to assess and c u r r e n t l y unknown. Deducing from past t r e n d s , Uganda has been almost s u f f i c i e n t i n t h i s product category.  self-  However, an i n -  c r e a s i n g s c a r c i t y i s a n t i c i p a t e d i n the f u t u r e .  The  a t t i t u d e of the Uganda F o r e s t Department i s t h a t : "...shortages of p o l e s and fuelwood can be a n t i c i p a t e d f a r enough i n advance to permit s u p p l i e s to me maintained by the p l a n t i n g of f a s t growing s p e c i e s such as Eucalyptus ( e u c a l y p t s ) , which can be i n f u l l p r o d u c t i o n f o r f u e l w i t h i n f o u r to e i g h t y e a r s . These programmes would be supported by the Department 's e x t e n s i o n s e r v i c e and c o u l d be o r g a n i z e d on the b a s i s of a l o c a l c o - o p e r a t i v e or v i l l a g e community". (Lockwood C o n s u l t a n t s L t d . , 1973). E x c l u d i n g fuelwood and c h a r c o a l and p o l e s and Table 41  ("without CU")  posts,  i n d i c a t e s t h a t based on consump-  t i o n f o r e c a s t a l t e r n a t i v e s A, B and C, by year 2000, o n l y a l t e r n a t i v e A's  requirement  can be f u l f i l l e d .  the assumptions i n e i t h e r B or C do occur, there w i l l  If be  -144TABLE 4 0 Potential ~  Roundwood S u p p l y a n d Demand t o t h e Y e a r 200 0  Aggregate P o t e n t i a l Consumption  1970  (•  Low  (Demand)  Medium - 00 OM 1  Available  ' 000  High  -)  3  S u p p l y o f Roundwood (1) 3  340  1971  13,868  13,892  13,892  1975  15,739  15,978  16,151  1670  1980  18,464  19,106  19 ,704  1691  1985  20,896  23,234  24,629  1501  1990  23,675  28,368  31,230  1546  1995  25,764  35, 064  40,538  1654  2000  28,090  43,523  53,549  2082  1.  m  excludes supply o f fuelwood and c h a r c o a l from t h e r u r a l a r e a s o u t s i d e t h e n a t i o n a l f o r e s t l a n d ; and r e s i d u a l volume f r o m THFs. ( f r o m T a b l e 39, C h a p t e r 4)  -INST A B L E 41 Veneer  a n d Saw l o g C o n s u m p t i o n  POTENTIAL  and S u p p l y Trends  (Uganda)  CONSUMPTION  SUPPLY  *  W i t h o u t cu- -  With c u  1  (  ^  -'000 m  )  1970  -  160  1971  240  240  240  1975  283  314  349  398  798  1980  344  440  567  312  812  1985  418  620  911  327  727  1990  506  868  1466  379  779  1995  615  1216  2361  480  880  2000  751  1707  3805 '  925  1325  1 -  r o u n d w o o d f r o m THF a n d s o f t w o o d p l a n t a t i o n s o n l y ( f r o m L o c k w o o d C o n s u l t a n t s L t d . , 1971), w i t h o u t c l o s e u t i l i z a t i o n  2 -  i n c l u d e s 5 0 % o f r e s i d u a l v o l u m e f r o m THF b e l i e v e d for p e e l i n g and sawing.  suitable  * A, B, C r e f e r t o p r o j e c t i o n a l t e r n a t i v e s a s e x p l a i n e d i n C h a p t e r Three where A = low B = medium C = high  2  -146- . an i n c r e a s i n g parative  timber s c a r c i t y .  The country's com?*  c o s t advantage i n timber exports w i l l be  eroded away and domestic consumers w i l l have to pay higher p r i c e s . From the d i s c u s s i o n  above, we can deduce t h a t a  higher and more e f f i c i e n t l e v e l of management i s e s s e n t i a l i n Uganda's f o r e s t r y . sound g u i d e l i n e s  Policy-makers need  f o r identifying opportunities  and r e -  l a t i n g these t o a l t e r n a t i v e courses of a c t i o n so as t o o f f s e t massive m i s a l l o c a t i o n o f scarce  resources.  A  h i g h e r and more e f f i c i e n t l e v e l o f management''" i n f o r estry usually implies  closer u t i l i z a t i o n  (CU), i n t e n -  s i v e management (IM), o r combinations o f both.  If  c a r r i e d out w e l l , these p r a c t i c e s should r e s u l t i n savings to consumers and n a t i o n a l  income (the g r o s s  secondary b e n e f i t to s o c i e t y and l e s s r e d u c t i o n  in in-  come from decreased output o f l a t e r n a t i v e raw m a t e r i a l s ) . McKillop  (1974) noted t h a t f o r i n t e n s i v e management  programs i n the U n i t e d S t a t e s ,  s u b s t a n t i a l g a i n s i n net  b e n e f i t s were p o s s i b l e even a t h i g h e r i n t e r e s t r a t e s . Other b e n e f i t s would i n c l u d e  impacts on p r o f i t s and em-  ployment i n f o r e s t i n d u s t r i e s .  T h e r e f o r e , such a poten-  t i a l would be o f b e n e f i t i n a l l e v i a t i n g r u r a l Of s i g n i f i c a n t importance i s the d u a l a t t a c k balance of payments problem by p e r m i t t i n g a t c o m p e t i t i v e p r i c e s and r e d u c t i o n  povertry. on the  timber exports  i n imports.  -147-  C l o s e r u t i l i z a t i o n may r e f e r t o t o t a l  utilization  of the complete t r e e , stand or f o r e s t c u r r e n t l y being harvested.  The t e c h n i c a l f e a s i b i l i t y t o h a r v e s t may  e x i s t but t h i s i n i t s e l f does not j u s t i f y economic operability.  The d e c i s i o n of what t o h a r v e s t should be  governed by a c r i t e r i o n o f h a r v e s t i n g a l l timber  from a  g i v e n stand which i s economic t o l o g and process  through  a v a i l a b l e c o n v e r s i o n f a c i l i t i e s or i s s a l e a b l e a t a profit.  I f the development o f h a r v e s t i n g has been r a t i o n a l  ( h a r v e s t i n g cheapest  units f i r s t ) ,  closer u t i l i z a t i o n  i n most i n s t a n c e s i n c r e a s e the p r o p o r t i o n o f lower  will  quality  raw m a t e r i a l , o f t e n a t a h i g h e r than average c o s t per u n i t . T h i s means s h i f t i n g the e n t i r e , o r p a r t , o f the long-run supply curve upwards and t o the l e f t ,  thus r e d u c i n g the  consumers s u r p l u s . For Canadian f o r e s t r y , Reed and A s s o c i a t e s L t d . (1977) argued t h a t , wood produced under CU w i l l have no s p e c i a l q u a l i t i e s which w i l l command premium p r i c e s .  On  the c o n t r a r y , i t w i l l g e n e r a l l y be below the q u a l i t y of wood c u r r e n t l y harvested and f o r the most p a r t the c o s t w i l l be the same or h i g h e r . any  Under these  circumstances  important move to CU i s u n l i k e l y t o occur u n l e s s i n -  d u s t r y cannot o b t a i n adequate wood a t a c o s t below t h a t f o r CU; and/or an i n c r e a s e i n demand f o r f i n i s h e d  pro-  ducts r e s u l t s i n higher p r i c e s which w i l l compensate f o r higher raw m a t e r i a l c o s t s . follows:  F i n a l l y , they concluded as  -148-  "Simply because a resource e x i s t s and now appears to be u n d e r - u t i l i z e d i s not a s u f f i c i e n t reason f o r modifying present i n d u s t r i a l f a c i l i t i e s or developing new c a p a c i t y . A wood resource has no p o s i t i v e economic s i g n i f i c a n c e i f e x t r a c t i o n and conv e r s i o n c o s t s as w e l l as market demand prevent the r e s u l t i n g products from being sold at a p r o f i t " . Standards of u t i l i z a t i o n vary between and  even  w i t h i n r e g i o n s depending on such f a c t o r s as: h a r v e s t i n g c o n d i t i o n s , t r a n s p o r t a t i o n c o s t s and able markets .  the nature  of  In a d d i t i o n , the f o r e s t s themselves vary  with r e s p e c t to h a r v e s t a b l e volume per u n i t area, composition,  avail-  timber  species  s i z e , t e r r a i n and d i s t a n c e to markets.  These c o n d i t i o n s i n f l u e n c e the d e l i v e r e d p r i c e of wood. In Uganda, due  to the incomplete  u t i l i z a t i o n of THF's,  CU i s a r e a l economic p r o p o s i t i o n . knowledge concerning  Lack of t e c h n i c a l  the wood p r o p e r t i e s of most  s p e c i e s suggests t h a t g e n e r a l i z a t i o n s l i k e the one  THF of  Reed and A s s o c i a t e s L t d . about Canadian f o r e s t s , cannot be made f o r Uganda. Stapf.  As an example, Funtumia e l a s t i c a  (the w i l d rubber tree) was  but has now  once c o n s i d e r e d  a "weed"  become a d e s i r a b l e p e e l e r s p e c i e s used by  the  match i n d u s t r y . Considering  t h a t a g r e a t e r p r o p o r t i o n of the growing  stock i n THFs belongs to the  "lesser-known s p e c i e s " group,  i t s i n c r e a s e d u t i l i z a t i o n should boost able per u n i t area and  the volume h a r v e s t -  thus reduce the average c o s t of  ... •; - •! -149-  harvesting.  Some of these s p e c i e s may  not f e t c h  premium p r i c e s , but others c e r t a i n l y w i l l . (Cyamometra a l e x a n d r i i ) a climax i n Uganda and  Ironwood  s p e c i e s i n most  THF  an e x c e l l e n t s p e c i e s f o r f l o o r i n g sawn-  wood, i s c u r r e n t l y being poisoned w i t h a r b o r i c i d e s to encourage r e g e n e r a t i o n mium can be presented sultants Ltd.  of mahoganies.  A case f o r pre-  for this species.  Lockwood Con-  (1973) suggested t h a t the Uganda F o r e s t  Department, "...must undertake manufacturing and marketing s t u d i e s t o determine the f e a s i b i l i t y of u s i n g Cyamometra a l e x a n d r i i f o r the manufacture of parquet flooring. P r e l i m i n a r y market c o n t a c t s i n d i c a t e that t h i s species could f i n d a ready market i n North America f o r both i n d u s t r i a l and domestic f l o o r i n g " . There e x i s t a l s o some THF Consultants gory 3.  Ltd.  t r a c t s t h a t Lockwood  (1973) p l a c e d under u t i l i z a t i o n  cate-  These are areas with very d i f f i c u l t a c c e s s i -  b i l i t y and  t h e r e f o r e e x p l o i t a t i o n i s p o s s i b l e only i n  the d i s t a n t f u t u r e .  Though some of the f o r e s t s are  known to c o n t a i n premium s p e c i e s , the c o s t o f e x t r a c t i o n was  p r o h i b i t i v e i n 1971 when the f i r s t phase o f  study was  undertaken.  the  I t i s b e l i e v e d t h i s source of  timber w i l l become a v a i l a b l e from 1985 onwards.  In  a d d i t i o n to volume from u t i l i z a t i o n of lesser-known s p e c i e s , t h i s source of timber i s estimated thousand c u b i c meters a n n u a l l y wood s u p p l i e d .  According  to add  30  to the q u a n t i t y of round-  to Plumptre  (1977),  previous  -150to 1970, was  i n most THFs, the i n t e n s i t y of u t i l i z a t i o n 3 ca_. 30-35 m /ha. By 1977, the h a r v e s t had i n c r e a s e d 3  to Ca. 44-73 m /ha or an increment  of 46 to 109  per-  cent. T h e r e f o r e , assuming 50% of the 1971  r e s i d u a l volume  from THFs (Lockwood C o n s u l t a n t s L t d . , 1971)  i s round-  wood s u i t a b l e f o r s o l i d wood p r o d u c t s , the supply  situ-  a t i o n i n Table 41 changes to t h a t shown under "with In  t h i s case, up to 1990,  supply exceeds p o t e n t i a l  sumption under a l t e r n a t i v e s A and B.  A sufficient  CU". consupply  e x i s t s up to the year 2000 f o r a l t e r n a t i v e A, and up 19 85 f o r a l t e r n a t i v e C. concluded  T h e r e f o r e , i t can be  to  safely  t h a t , i n Uganda, i t i s p o s s i b l e to i n c r e a s e the  volume of roundwood h a r v e s t e d through z a t i o n of the THFs.  Furthermore,  the c l o s e r  utili-  i t i s reasonable  to  assume t h a t r e s e a r c h and development e f f o r t s i n t h i s (2) d i r e c t i o n c o u l d earn h i g h r a t e s of r e t u r n  .  However, f o r a much more s u s t a i n e d p r o d u c t i o n w i t h attendant improvements i n q u a l i t y and q u a n t i t y of f u t u r e wood supply f o r f o r e s t i n d u s t r y , c l o s e r u t i l i z a t i o n i s inadequate.  A f t e r a short-term i n c r e a s e i n h a r v e s t a b l e  volumes through c l o s e r u t i l i z a t i o n i s exhausted,  this  s t r a t e g y w i l l not be able to ensure, as f a r i n t o  the  f u t u r e as p o s s i b l e , t h a t supply w i l l be a v a i l a b l e a t c o s t s which w i l l m a i n t a i n low domestic  prices  and  -151-  i n t e r n a t i o n a l comparative c o s t advantage.  Therefore,  i n t e n s i v e management, through the use of s i l v i c u l t u r a l treatments i s advocated f o r the long-term needs o f the f o r e s t i n d u s t r y and the economy o f Uganda as a whole. I t may be p r a c t i c e d both i n THFs o r f o r e s t p l a n t a t i o n s . The  r e s t o f t h i s chapter w i l l emphasize the l a t t e r .  i s n o t to de-emphasize the r o l e o f THFs.  In f a c t ,  Uganda's c u r r e n t and p o t e n t i a l f o r e s t products are based on t h i s r e s o u r c e .  This  exports  Rather, i t i s an acknowledge-  ment of the f a c t t h a t f u r t h e r development o f THFs beyond CU c o u l d very w e l l prove to be c o s t l y and i s c e r t a i n l y difficult.  5.20  I n t e n s i v e Management and F o r e s t r y 5.21  I n t e n s i v e Management Defined  I n t e n s i v e f o r e s t management i s t h a t management o p t i o n which combines a l a r g e q u a n t i t y o f v a r i a b l e i n p u t s (treatments  w i t h the f i x e d i n p u t land) so as t o r a i s e  over time the average net y i e l d from a g i v e n area above t h a t o f nature.  I n t e n s i v e f o r e s t management has given  r i s e t o such terms as "High Y i e l d F o r e s t r y " 1974) and  b l e n d i n g people, f o r e s t resource  c a p i t a l , technology  i n t o a business plan.  (Weyerhaeuser, and the land Intensive  f o r e s t resources management i n v o l v e s s u b s t a n t i a l i n p u t s of knowledge, labour and c a p i t a l t o improve on the n a t u r a l c a p a b i l i t y o f land to produce f o r e s t crops According  (Smith,  to Dawson (1975), i n t e n s i v e management i s  1970).  concerned w i t h a number o f treatments a p p l i e d  t o the  same stand, n o t j u s t one o r two p r a c t i c e s as i s the case i n timber stand improvements.  C u r t i s e t a_l. (1973)  argued t h a t t r e e s are p l a n t s ,  and the means t h a t can  be used t o i n c r e a s e to other crops  p r o d u c t i o n are b a s i c a l l y s i m i l a r  and,therefore, i n t e n s i v e culture i s  r e a l l y agronomic f o r e s t r y . tensive  Bevege (1976) l i n k e d i n -  f o r e s t management with the a g r i c u l t u r a l green  revolution.  Intensive  management has been mostly  a response t o a timber resource a v a i l a b i l i t y  constraint  i n the face o f i n c r e a s i n g demand f o r f o r e s t p r o d u c t s . In most LDCs (and n o t a b l y North A f r i c a and A s i a ) , with respect  t o a g r i c u l t u r e , the t r e n d has been t o s h i f t  from area expansion t o expansion through i n t e n s i f i e d land u t i l i z a t i o n .  T h i s has been brought about by changes  i n the r e l a t i v e c o s t s o f those a l t e r n a t i v e s f o r i n creasing  a g r i c u l t u r a l output.  The growth i n y i e l d  per h e c t a r e has been a r e s u l t o f i n c r e a s e d  cropping  i n t e n s i t y and the simultaneous development o f h i g h y i e l d i n g crop v a r i e t i e s - the concept o f the green revolution. Intensive  management i n f o r e s t r y i s l i k e n e d t o the  green r e v o l u t i o n . package.  I t a l s o demands a  technological  No s i n g l e method o f i n c r e a s i n g y i e l d s can be  s u c c e s s f u l without i n t e g r a t i o n of o t h e r major f a c t o r s .  -153-  For examole without a "marriage" or proper balance o f s i t e p r e p a r a t i o n , f e r t i l i z a t i o n and g e n e t i c a l l y t r e e s , e f f o r t s are l i k e l y to f a l l or may  indeed be doomed to f a i l u r e  improved  f a r below e x p e c t a t i o n s (Zobel, 1974) .  The r a t i o n a l e v o l u t i o n of the need f o r i n t e n s i f i c a t i o n o f management i n f o r e s t y  (adapted from Hayami e t a l . .,1976)  i s sketched i n F i g u r e 9. B e s i d e s i t s c h r o n o l o g i c a l importance,  the diagram i s u s e f u l i n understanding  o p p o r t u n i t i e s f o r i n c r e a s i n g the t o t a l f o r e s t e s t a t e v i s - a - v i s i n t e n s i f i c a t i o n of management. As demand f o r wood products i n c r e a s e s due to a r i s e i n per c a p i t a n a t i o n a l income, h a r v e s t s from THFs and f o r e s t p l a n t a t i o n s are pushed i n c r e a s i n g l y onto marginal sites. put  Consequently,  the marginal c o s t of roundwood out-  (AA), r i s e s r e l a t i v e to output through  intensive  management ( I I ) . E v e n t u a l l y , the economy reaches a stage wh^n  i n t e n s i v e management becomes a cheaper means of  p r o c u r i n g wood compared to area expansion.  With abundance  of s u i t a b l e l a n d , AA remains h o r i z o n t a l and  belowH,  i n d i c a t i n g a r e l a t i v e advantage  of area expansion over  i n t e n s i f i c a t i o n of management.  As unused land r e s o u r c e s  are exhausted and the c u l t i v a t i o n f r o n b i e r moves from s u p e r i o r to i n f e r i o r s i t e s , AA r i s e s and c r o s s e s I I a t P (the "Crossover p o i n t " ) .  H  Time AA AA  - trend of marginal - trend of marginal plus X-efficiency II - trend of marginal I ' I - trend of marginal to I I . 1  1  FIGURE 9/.  cost under area expansion using current level of management cost under area expansion using current level of management cost under intensive mangemerit cost under a higher intensive management compared  Relationship Between Marginal Costs of Wood Production Under Area Expansion and Intensification of Management  -155Beyond t h i s stage,  i n t e n s i f i c a t i o n i s more p r o f i t a b l e com-  pared t o area expansion.  A higher  degree o f i n t e n s i v e manage-  ment I ' I ' reduces the time p e r i o d when c r o s s o v e r (at P').  i s reached  A l t e r n a t i v e l y , through the mechanism o f what  Leibenstein  (1976) c a l l e d X - e f f i c i e n c y , d i s t i n c t from a l l o -  c a t i v e e f f i c i e n c y , and i n v o l v i n g such t h i n g s as management re-organization, motivation large increases  o f workers and changes i n l a y o u t ,  i n p r o d u c t i v i t y are p o s s i b l e .  T h i s would tend  to depress the AA curve t o AA' and postpone occurrence o f the crossover  p o i n t u n t i l P" i s reached.  The a c t u a l time when  crossover  p o i n t i s reached w i l l depend on magnitudes o f the  compensating i n f l u e n c e s o f X - e f f i c i e n c y and higher i n t e n s i t y of management.  In a d d i t i o n , i n some regions  there has been e s t a b l i s h e d a long standing  o f the world,  t r a d i t i o n of  " c a r r y i n g " some p r o p o r t i o n o f u n p r o f i t a b l e s i t e s i n a t o t a l a f f o r e s t a t i o n scheme.  F o r example i n South A u s t r a l i a , the  p r o p o r t i o n o f u n p r o f i t a b l e land t h a t should be i n c l u d e d , i s d e f i n e d as "the maximum such p r o p o r t i o n  —  which does not r e -  duce the average s i t e q u a l i t y f o r the r e g i o n below t h a t which i s p r o f i t a b l e a t g i v e n c o s t / r o y a l t y r e l a t i o n s h i p s " (Woods,1976). Viewed i n a g l o b a l context i n a country, the supply  and f o r some r e g i o n s  o f land f o r a g r o - f o r e s t r y i s be-  coming h i g h l y i n e l a s t i c and i n over-populated fixed.  Since  with-  countries,  f l e x i b i l i t y i n s u b s t i t u t i n g labour  and/or  c a p i t a l f o r land i s l i m i t e d , land augmenting t e c h n i c a l p r o gress a t a s u f f i c i e n t l y h i g h r a t e may be the o n l y means o f  -156-  avoiding  long-run economic s t a g n a t i o n .  diminishing  Furthermore,  r e t u r n s i n the a g r o - f o r e s t r y  sectors  will  m a n i f e s t themselves i n those i n d u s t r i e s which use, (3) d i r e c t l y or i n d i r e c t l y , inputs Not w i t h s t a n d i n g ,  competition  from these  sectors  f o r land a l s o e x i s t s  between a g r i c u l t u r e and f o r e s t r y . In Uganda, a dual s t r a t e g y o f area expansion and i n t e n s i v e management i s needed f o r both a g r i c u l t u r e and forestry.  F o r f o r e s t r y , area expansion i s p o s s i b l e be-  cause an a r t i f i c i a l  s u r p l u s o f l a n d e x i s t s although a t  the same time, a s t a t u t o r y , and i n my o p i n i o n nomic  limit  (8 percent  non-eco-  o f t o t a l land area) has been im-  posed on the extent o f the f o r e s t e s t a t e .  Intensive  management i n f o r e s t p l a n t a t i o n s i s f i r s t and foremost a r e s u l t o f the sequence o f s i l v i c u l t u r a l involved i n r a i s i n g plantations.  Seedlings  operations of exotics  have to be r a i s e d i n n u r s e r i e s , p l a n t e d , weeded, and pruned t o o b t a i n  thinned  " s a t i s f a c t o r y " wood output.  Secondly, s i n c e through i n t e n s i v e management one o b t a i n s g r e a t e r increments i n output compared to p r o p o r t i o n a t e increases  i n i n p u t , the u n i t c o s t o f wood produced i s  lowered.  Therefore,  an i n c r e a s e d  consumers' and p r o -  ducer (s) ' s u r p l u s i s achieved; and i n a d d i t i o n , are g r e a t e r o p p o r t u n i t i e s In the f o r e g o i n g  there  f o r the export s e c t o r .  d i s c u s s i o n s , i t has been shown  t h a t a h i g h e r and more e f f i c i e n t l e v e l o f management, e s p e c i a l l y through i n t e n s i v e management, leads to  i n c r e a s e s i n consumers and p r o d u c e r ( s ) ' s u r p l u s e s and/or savings i n n a t i o n a l income.  The l a t t e r , through the Key-  n e s i a n m u l t i p l i e r e f f e c t , leads t o even g r e a t e r b e n e f i c i a l (savings) e f f e c t s .  As i n d i c a t e d p r e v i o u s l y , t h e r e i s g r e a t  s i m i l a r i t y between i n t e n s i v e management and the green r e v o l u t i o n with r e s p e c t to b i o l o g i c a l technology.  Principles  o f economics have shown t h a t t e c h n o l o g i c a l i n n o v a t i o n w i l l induce i n e q u a l i t y e f f e c t s generated  f i r s t by the nature o f  the technology i t s e l f and through the s p e c i f i c economic and s o c i a l system w i t h i n which i t o p e r a t e s . The d e f i n i t i o n adopted  f o r i n t e n s i v e management  i n c l u d e s the l e v e l o f technology as a f a c t o r .  However, i t  i s important t o d i s t i n g u i s h , even i f somewhat a r b i t r a r i l y , between technology and techniques. a g i v e n output denotes  Factor s u b s t i t u t i o n f o r  changes i n techniques; whereas  s h i f t s from one i s o q u a n t to another r e f l e c t changes i n output and i n d i c a t e changes i n technology.  Defined i n a  r a t h e r s i m p l i f i e d way, techniques are any bundle o f i n p u t s which w i l l y i e l d  a g i v e n l e v e l o f output, w h i l e  technology r e f e r s to a p o o l o f techniques available  (Bell,  currently  1972).  Output l e v e l s a t v a r i o u s i n p u t mixes f o r three h y p o t h e t i c a l t e c h n o l o g i e s are shown i n F i g u r e 10.  For  example, i n p l a n t a t i o n f o r e s t r y , technology T l may r e f e r to c u l t u r a l treatments o n l y , w h i l e T2 i n v o l v e s  -159-  c u l t u r a l treatments and t r e e b r e e d i n g . p o i n t s A,B, and C r e p r e s e n t as s i t e p r e p a r a t i o n , when other o p e r a t i o n s  Within  TI, i  d i f f e r e n t techniques  initial  '  (such  spacing and t h i n n i n g , each  are h e l d c o n s t a n t ) .  these p o i n t s may r e p r e s e n t e x t e n s i v e ,  Alternatively,  i n t e n s i v e and very  i n t e n s i v e management l e v e l s . To evaluate utilization, two-factor  the e f f i c i e n c y i m p l i c a t i o n s o f resource (4)  the t r a d i t i o n a l , though  inapporpriate  model i s used as d e p i c t e d i n F i g u r e 11.  In  the case o f p l a n t a t i o n f o r e s t r y i n LDCs, i n p u t s are d i v i d e d 1 2 i n t o two p a r t s : X r e p r e s e n t s labour i n p u t ; w h i l e X stands f o r a l l other i n p u t s , e s p e c i a l l y l a n d and c a p i t a l . For a given l e v e l o f output y  Q  p r o d u c t i o n may be  accomplished u s i n g e i t h e r o f the two t e c h n o l o g i e s ( T l and  T2) as shown i n F i g u r e 11.  C l e a r l y T l i s superior  to T2 a t t h i s l e v e l o f output, s i n c e f o r any given technique i t r e q u i r e s l e s s o f both f a c t o r s .  This  s u p e r i o r i t y i s a l s o s e n s i t i v e to economies o f s c a l e , and  i t i s p o s s i b l e T2 may i n f a c t prove much more  s u p e r i o r ' a t higher q u a n t i t i e s o f i n p u t mix (beyond; F) . Such a s i t u a t i o n can occur  i f T2 e x h i b i t s i n c r e a s i n g and T l  d i m i n i s h i n g o r constant  r e t u r n s to s c a l e (Bell,1972) .  For an i n d i v i d u a l t r e e , response w i l l be the same f o r techniques  B o r B' ( F i g . 10) . A t  the p l a n t a t i o n o r  woodlot owner l e v e l , r e d u c t i o n i n c o s t p e r u n i t o f output  o Factor  Intensity  Figure and  11  Technical  X Efficiency  .Factor  -161-  becomes important and  a r a t i o n a l choice would  technique B of technology T l .  For the n a t i o n a l economy  as a whole, when cheaper i n p u t s are used we  get a l a r g e r flow of goods and  of the economy. will result.  and  land.  and  technique  A p u b l i c p o l i c y may  choose those  at l e a s t c o s t of  above r e l a t i o n s h i p s are u s e f u l f o r a r r i v i n g  i t i s impossible  using  to move to an a l t e r n a t i v e such t h a t (Sen,  197 5).  the  Assuming  obtaining  output  technique B of technology T l , would r e q u i r e an i n 2  put mix  at  A situation is technically efficient  an i s o - c o s t l i n e LL at labour wage r a t e W, q  capital  B.  change y i e l d s something f o r nothing  Y  sectors  Again the choice w i l l be f o r technology T l  technical efficiency. if  s e r v i c e s between  B),  T h i s w i l l a l s o a f f e c t the p a t t e r n and i n -  t h a t employ most labour  The  (technique  Changes i n the s t r u c t u r e of such flows  t e n s i t y of f a c t o r use. options  be  of X  r a t e higher  q  1 and  .  X .  than W,  q  and  An  .  .  mstxtutxonally  determined wage  u n r e a l i s t i c a l l y low p r i c e s charged  2 to X f a c t o r s ( i s o - c o s t l i n e L^ Lj.) w i l l a l t e r the i n p u t mix by reducing the amount of labour and i n c r e a s i n g t h a t 1 of c a p i t a l and/or land to produce Y  q  output  ( X ^ and  I t i s important to r e a l i z e t h a t i n i n t e n s i f i c a t i o n f o r e s t management, i f one  2 X^). of  of the s u b s i d i a r y o b j e c t i v e s i s  p r o v i s i o n of " g a i n f u l " employment, u n r e a l i s t i c and i n s t i t u t i o n a l l y determined i n p u t p r i c e s , may upset i t .  i n f a c t work to  Another f r e q u e n t l y ' d i s c u s s e d i s s u e r e l a t e d to employment p o l i c y i s the c h o i c e between more output but l e s s employment and l e s s output but more employment.  The  i t may  not be r e j e c t e d because  goals. demand.  first  one  - i s technically inefficient, of s u p e r i o r  I f more people are h i r e d , we  but  social  increase e f f e c t i v e  In LDCs, supply w i l l not a d j u s t e a s i l y as i n  a Keynesian employment s i t u a t i o n s i n c e i n these economies, output i s r e s t r i c t e d by r e s o u r c e s and o r g a n i z a t i o n r a t h e r than e f f e c t i v e demand. e x t r a e f f e c t i v e demand i s o f t e n met t i o n o f e x i s t i n g output.  T h e r e f o r e , the through  Inflationary  realloca-  readjustments,  with c o n s i d e r a b l e economic and p o l i t i c a l  consequences,  o f t e n r e s u l t i n g i n r e d u c t i o n i n employment elsewhere, are used to achieve such r e a l l o c a t i o n  (Sen, 1975) .  T h i s argument should not be taken to mean downgrading employment o p p o r t u n i t i e s .  I t i s recognized that  ployment i s an important instrument for: enhancing d i s t r i b u t i o n i n the absence  of b r i b e s and  emincome  corruption.  Rather, the reason f o r the above argument i s to emphas i z e a c a r e f u l approach  to the employment problem w i t h  conscious knowledge of the t r a d e - o f f s i n v o l v e d . a c h i e v e optimum development, we  To  need to know t e c h n i c a l  e f f i c i e n c y r e l a t i o n s , but more important we  should be  concerned w i t h economic e f f i c i e n c y and e q u i t y c o n s i d e r a tions.  Expansions of f o r e s t r y a c t i v i t i e s and  their  -163-  implications overall  f o r employment s h o u l d  national context.  encourage a b s o r p t i o n  of  be  seen i n  the  I t is,however, d e s i r a b l e  labour  to  i n i n t e n s i v e manage-  ment p r a c t i c e s .  5.22  Intensive 5.22 The  Management i n P l a n t a t i o n  Forestry  Introduction f o r e c a s t o f p o t e n t i a l c o n s u m p t i o n o f wood p r o -  d u c t s i n Uganda i n d i c a t e d t h a t THFs a l o n e a r e cient  to  supply  future  requirements without  rising  p r i c e s o r government s u b s i d y  Forest  plantations  at  o f e x o t i c and  a minimum, c o n t r i b u t e  over  80  industrial  roundwood r e q u i r e m e n t s  Ltd.,  1971)  .  posts  will  also  to  not  suffi-  inducing  consumers.  indigenous  species  percent  the  of  (Lockwood  will  country's  Consultants  Roundwood f o r f u e l w o o d , c h a r c o a l ,  poles  i n c r e a s i n g l y come f r o m p l a n t a t i o n s  in  and the  future. Uganda i s n o t  alone i n t h i s ,  there  i s a global  towards p l a n t a t i o n f o r e s t r y i n a v a r i e t y o f and  socio-economic c o n d i t i o n s .  Thus t h e r e  environmental already  a g r o w i n g body o f e x p e r i e n c e  regarding  countered.  major o p e r a t i o n s  tion  A  summary o f  the  f o r e s t r y i s shown i n F i g u r e  opportunities  and  forestry,  silvicultural  into  two  the  sections:  pacement) c o m p r i s e  difficulties  stages the  problems  In  exists  en-  in  planta-  discussing  encountered i n p l a n t a t i o n  operations  1 to 6  stand  12.  trend  will  (excluding  establishment  be  divided  initial phase,  es-  while  KEY:  Figure  12.  A  0 -  Decision  1 -  Choice  of  2 -  Nursery  3 -  Initial  k  Ground  -  to  establish  species  land  and  plantations site  evaluation  clearing  preparation  5 -  Planting  6 -  Weeding  7  -  Cultural  8  -  Final  (initial (1st,  espacement,  2nd,  treatments  3rd  pitting,  beat!ng-up  or  blanking)  )  (Thinning,  Pruning)  Harvest.  S C H E M A T I C DIAGRAM OF MANAGEMENT O P E R A T I O N S  IN  FOREST P L A N T A T I O N S  OF THE  TROPICS  (GENERALIZED).  -165-  stage 7 ( i n i t i a l espacement included) denotes c u l t u r a l treatments or stand development. Timber p r o d u c t i o n , s t a r t i n g from the e s t a b l i s h m e n t phase i s a response  t o a long-term  f o r e c a s t of demand.  I n v a r i a b l y , t h i s p r o d u c t i o n i n v o l v e s a t the present time, the d i v e r s i o n i n t o f o r e s t r y o f r e s o u r c e s t h a t might and o f t e n c o u l d , be used i n other forms o f p r o duction  ( L e s l i e , 1971).  I t i s assumed a t t h i s  stage,  t h e r e f o r e , t h a t a p p r o p r i a t e management p o l i c y has been defined.  I d e a l l y , such a program should s t a r t with a  p l a n t a t i o n p l a n t h a t should l e a d t o a c t i v i t y and s o c i o economic a n a l y s i s .  I t i s i m p e r a t i v e t h a t a thorough  assembly o f environmental,  economic, s o c i a l and p o l i t i c a l  data i s c a r r i e d o u t . T h i s approach w i l l ensure  among  o t h e r t h i n g s t h a t the e f f e c t o f employment on the popul a t i o n a f f e c t e d d u r i n g both the e s t a b l i s h m e n t and stand development phase i s a n a l y z e d . g r e a t e r importance  But perhaps o f even  i s the need t o r e c o g n i z e t h a t the  lands t o be a f f o r e s t e d and t h e i r r e l a t i o n t o p o p u l a t i o n d i s t r i b u t i o n , may be determined  i n the p o l i t i c a l  arena.  5.222 Stand Establishment Phase T h i s phase o f p l a n t a t i o n f o r e s t r y covers a l l the processes by which a s u f f i c i e n t number o f young t r e e s are  -166introduced  to the s i t e to c r e a t e a f u l l  stocking of  area, up to t h a t stage a t which the crowns of the v i d u a l trees coalesce  to form a c l o s e d canopy  the  indi-  (FAO,  1973) . Once the d e c i s i o n to a f f o r e s t i s made a t  the  p o l i c y making l e v e l , i t i s assumed t h a t f u t u r e b e n e f i t s exceed the c o s t s . l a r g e enough, i t may  social  I f the net s o c i a l b e n e f i t i s  j u s t i f y expansion o f  activities  e s p e c i a l l y i n low y i e l d i n g s i t e s  t h a t are s i t u a t e d i n  economically  Following  depressed r e g i o n s .  to a f f o r e s t , the to see how  f o r e s t resource  the  decision  manager's duty then i s  i t can be c a r r i e d out e f f i c i e n t l y .  In  other  words, the manager then i s concerned more w i t h how make the most e f f e c t i v e use of resources is,  a v a i l a b l e , that  the a l t e r n a t i v e t h a t maximizes net r e t u r n to  limiting  f a c t o r of p r o d u c t i o n  Because timber p r o d u c t i o n be achieved  to  the  (Teeguarden, 1969) .  i s the primary g o a l , i t should  at least cost.  In other words, d u r i n g a f f o r e -  s t a t i o n programs the most c o s t - e f f e c t i v e o p e r a t i o n s required  ( M i l l s , 1976)  are  so as to j u s t i f y f o r e s t r y ' s case  f o r more land, d e l i v e r the goods from timber a t lowest c o s t to consumers i n the domestic market and m a i n t a i n a comparative c o s t advantage a t the i n t e r n a t i o n a l l e v e l . The  " c o s t - p r i c e " index  (Lundgren, 1973)  answer a r e l e v a n t stand establishment  can be used to question.  i t c o s t to produce a u n i t of output, given and  expected volume (value)  yield?  What w i l l  future p r i c e  -167-  Since the  f u t u r e p r i c e of wood i s an exogenous  v a r i a b l e , beyond the c o n t r o l of the f o r e s t resource manager, whereas volume y i e l d i s p r e d i c t a b l e , e f f e c t i v e n e s s may  be measured u s i n g volume y i e l d  u n i t of i n i t i a l c a p i t a l o u t l a y a t a given length.  per  rotation  Based on volume y i e l d data o f P. p a t u l a  Cham i n Uganda (Kingston, iveness  cost-  Schl.  1970), r e s u l t s of c o s t - e f f e c t -  f o r f i v e l e v e l s o f e s t a b l i s h m e n t c o s t s are shown  i n Table 42.  The  r e s u l t s i n d i c a t e decreasing  ness w i t h i n c r e a s e  i n costs  effective-  f o r each s i t e index;  an i n c r e a s i n g e f f e c t i v e n e s s from poor to b e t t e r f o r a given  and sites  cost.  Ignoring  intermediate  treatments f o r a moment,  an i n c r e a s i n g c o s t of e s t a b l i s h m e n t reduces the average r a t e of r e t u r n .  For example, Table 4 3 shows  c o s t s from P to R r e s u l t e d i n a 6.5 3 p e r c e n t i n the average r a t e of r e t u r n a t a given a s p e c i f i c s i t e index. was  doubling reduction  royalty rate  I f maximum average r a t e of  and  return  used as a c r i t e r i o n f o r determining optimum r o t a t i o n  length,  i n c r e a s i n g the c o s t of stand e s t a b l i s h m e n t w i l l  tend to lengthen the r o t a t i o n .  T h i s c o u l d reduce timber  supply s u b s t a n t i a l l y . While the c o s t of p l a n t a t i o n e s t a b l i s h m e n t i n fluences  efficiency  by p r o l o n g i n g  (cost-effectiveness)  r o t a t i o n lengths,  and  timber supply  the c o s t i s a f u n c t i o n  of  -168-  TABLE 4-2 Cost - E f f e c t i v e n e s s f o r P. P a t u l a . S c h l . Cham i n Uganda V o l . Y i e l d / I n i t i a l Outlay a t age 2 0 E s t . Cost Level (shs/ha)  (  Site Low  I n d . ^ ™ .mv/shilling 3  e x <?  Hi  h  ; 750  .22  .59  .97  1375  .12  .32  .50  1625  .10  .27  .45  2000  .09  .24  .41  .08  .22  .36  ;  Y i e l d a t Year.} 20  High  , =  rotation  724 .2 m  Medium =  438.9  m  3  Low  16 2.8  m  3  Source:  =  3  K i n g s t o n (1970)  -)  -169TABLE 4 3  V a r i a t i o n o f Average I n t e r n a l Rate E s t a b l i s h m e n t Costs f o r a Softwood Medium s i t e i n U g a n d a STAND  o f Return With P l a n t a t i o n on a  AGE  (Years)  L E V E L OF ESTABLISHMENT COSTS  P ( Average  (•shs/ha)  R Q I n t e r n a l Rate o f Return/ 3.47 5.96 7.22 8.48 8 .77* 8.74 8.70 8 .57 8.43 8 .15 7.82 7. 50 7. 35 7.20 6.89 6.61 .  8 9 10 12 14 15 16 17 18 20 22 24 25 26 28 30  11.60 13.34 13.92 14.10* 13.58 13.22 12.90 12.51 12 .15 11.47 10.84 10.25 9.99 9.73 9.23 8.78  Source:  Y i e l d , d a t a f r o m K i n g s t o n (1970)  1. 32 4 .01 5.45 6 .98 7.48 7.53 7.57* 7.51 7.43 7.25 7.01 6.76 6.64 6.52 6.26 6.02  S 0 .03 2.83 4 . 37 6 . 07 6 .69 6.80 6.89* 6.86 6 .82 6.70 6 . 51 6 . 30 6.20 6.10 5.87 5.66  E s t a b l i s h m e n t C o s t s (s:hs/ha): T = 2000. R = 1 6 2 5 , S = 1800, P = 750, Q = 1375 * - d e n o t e s y e a r o f maximum a v e r a g e r a t e o f r e t u r n •  T -1 .28 1. 64 3. 28 5. 15 5. 89 6. 06 6 .19 6 .20* 6 .20 6. 14 6 .00 5. 84 5 .76 5. 67 5 . 47 5 .,29  -170the p r o b a b i l i t y o f p l a n t a t i o n success.  The p l a n t i n g  stage o f stand e s t a b l i s h m e n t i s o f t e n f o l l o w e d by ing  ("beating up")  blank-  spots caused by p l a n t f a i l u r e .  operation i s inherently costly.  This  The Uganda F o r e s t  Department c o n s i d e r s p l a n t i n g s u c c e s s f u l i f s u r v i v a l , u n i f o r m l y d i s t r i b u t e d , i s equal to or g r e a t e r than percent.  75  To i n c o r p o r a t e t h i s r i s k and u n c e r t a i n t y a s -  p e c t of the e s t a b l i s h m e n t phase, Teeguarden (1969) suggested ing" .  the c r i t e r i o n o f "Expected  net worth of p l a n t -  Assuming.the o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t of n a t u r a l r e -  g e n e r a t i o n i s zero, i t may (R x PS  be expressed  ENW  =  ENW  = the expected  R  = d i s c o u n t e d gross revenue  P  as:  ) - I -(F x PF ) P  where  PS  net worth o f p l a n t i n g  = p r o b a b i l i t y o f p l a n t a t i o n success ^ planting  I  = i n i t i a l investment  F  = failure  PF  Higher  ^  with  cost  (beating-up)  c o s t and  = p r o b a b i l i t y of p l a n t a t i o n f a i l u r e planting.'  with  stand e s t a b l i s h m e n t c o s t s do not always r e -  s u l t i n greater p l a n t a t i o n success.  They c o u l d a r i s e  due  to i n e f f i c i e n c i e s i n management such as poor labour f o r c e o r g a n i z a t i o n and m a t e r i a l s s c h e d u l i n g , or o t h e r exogenous v a r i a b l e s such as f a i l u r e of adequate  moisture  -171b u i l d - u p a t time of p l a n t i n g .  However, where s u r v i v a l  i s low, i n c r e a s e i n e s t a b l i s h m e n t c o s t s should i n higher s u r v i v a l rate.  result  A t a b s o l u t e l y low l e v e l s of  p l a n t a t i o n success, negative ENW  values are  obtained.  As the p r o b a b i l i t y of p l a n t i n g success i n c r e a s e s , so does ENW.  The p r o b a b i l i t y of p l a n t a t i o n s u r v i v a l  a t which ENW  i s zero should, t h e o r e t i c a l l y ,  the "minimum l e v e l of success a c c e p t a b l e " .  determine T h i s i s the  l e v e l a t which b e a t i n g up i s n e i t h e r a l o s s nor economic p r o p o s i t i o n . Table 44.  an  These r e l a t i o n s h i p s are shown i n  A t the assumed l e v e l s of beating-up  costs,  the minimum a c c e p t a b l e l e v e l of success i s somewhere between 70 and  80 p e r c e n t f o r P. p a t u l a S c h l .  Cham grown  on poor to medium s i t e w i t h gross revenues d i s c o u n t e d a t 6 percent.  Holding other factors constant, a  lower  d i s c o u n t r a t e , a more p r o d u c t i v e s i t e and reduced ing-up c o s t s , w i l l a l l lower of  the a c c e p t a b l e  beat-  percentage  survival. The  stand e s t a b l i s h m e n t phase i s the s e t o f o p e r a t i o n s  i n : p l a n t a t i o n f o r e s t r y w i t h a myriad of alternative techniques' available.  The cost-effectiveness criterion discussed earlier  i s i d e a l f o r r a n k i n g them.  T h i s < c r i t e r i o n i s independent  of such uncertainty: f a c t o r s as wood p r i c e s and  interest  (discount) ' rates: (Teeguarden, 1969). For example i n Uganda,  -172-  TABLE 4 4 I n f l u e n c e o f P r o b a b i l i t y o f P l a n t a t i o n Success on the Expected Net Worth o f a Pinus P a t u l a Stand i n Uganda grown on Poor/Medium S i t e a t Age 20. *  R  PS  a  .  F  R x PS - P (shs/ha)  (shs/ha)  b  PF  I  a  914  0  0  1300  100  1300  500  -1800  914  10  91  1000  90  900  500  -1309  914  20  183  900  80  720  500  -1037  914  30  274  850  70  595  500  -  821  914  40  366  800  60  480  500  -  614  914  50  457  750  50  375  500  -  418  914  60  548  600  40  240  500  -  192  914  70  640  500  30  150  500  -  10  914  80  731  300  20  60  500  +  171  914  90  823  200  10  20  500  + . 303  914  100  914  100  0  0  500  +  /a  -  from Kingston (1970)  /b  -  estimates  ENW R I.F * -  P (shs/ha)  (shs/ha)  ENW  shs/ha  "5  P (%)  F x PF  P o.  expected net worth d i s c o u n t e d gross revenue i n i t i a l investment (establishment) discounted f a i l u r e cost the ENW here i s a c t u a l l y not net o f a l l c o s t s . Intermediate c o s t s have been o m i t t e d .  (shs-/ha)  414  -173Kingston  (1972) estimated  e u c a l y p t p l a n t a t i o n s was hand, c l e a n - p l o u g h i n g  t h a t chemical  weeding i n  cheaper than manual.  On the  other  d u r i n g s i t e p r e p a r a t i o n i s much more  c o s t l y compared t o l i n e - p l o u g h i n g or spot-hoeing , and yet , o f f e r s much b e t t e r s u r v i v a l . with taungya  Clean-ploughing  combined  (shamba system,: or a g r i - s i l v i c u l t u r e )  the c o s t of stand establishment,  reduces  by e l i m i n a t i n g most o f  the  weeding o p e r a t i o n s . Except f o r extreme cases, high c o s t s alone are absolute  i n d i c a t o r s of poor f i n a n c i a l r e t u r n s any more than  low c o s t s ensure high r e t u r n s .  The  i n t e r a c t i o n of a com-  p o s i t e of c o s t - e f f e c t i v e n e s s f a c t o r s determines the return.  not  A  measure  of  favourable  eventual  • programme ..com-""  ponents i s the percentage of the r e g i o n a l acreage on moderate to l a r g e t r a c t s , on f a v o u r a b l e at  low to medium c o s t s  ( M i l l s , 1976).  i d e n t i f i c a t i o n of the lowest  s i t e s and e s t a b l i s h e d A need e x i s t s f o r  standards  on the c r u c i a l c o s t -  effectiveness indicators. According  to Haley  (1969) , s i t e index  i s one  of  the  main determinants of p r o s p e c t i v e f i n a n c i a l r e t u r n s from reforestation determining  while  brush c o n d i t i o n s p l a y a major r o l e i n  s i t e preparation costs.  The  i d e a l s i t e i s one  i n which the macro- and m i c r o - c l i m a t i c c o n d i t i o n s and s o i l depth, t e x t u r e and  the  f e r t i l i t y , combine t o produce  optimum c o n d i t i o n s f o r e a r l y growth  (FAO,  1973).  a f f o r e s t a t i o n e f f o r t i s being made i n overcoming  Most the  l i m i t a t i o n s of the sub-norm a f f o r e s t a t i o n s i t e because there  -174-  i s h a r d l y an i d e a l one.  S i t e q u a l i t y (the a b i l i t y o f the  s i t e t o produce t i m b e r ) ,  has a profound i n f l u e n c e on  timber y i e l d and t h e r e f o r e c o s t - e f f e c t i v e n e s s as shown i n Table 42.  In .the U n i t e d  (1971) r e p o r t e d  S t a t e s , Anderson and Guttenberg  a d i f f e r e n c e of 2 percent  i n the r a t e o f  r e t u r n between good and medium s i t e s , w h i l e H e r r i c k and Morse (1968) r e p o r t e d  6.8 percent  r a t e o f r e t u r n f o r upland  hardwoods. 5.223 Stand Development Phase The  establishment  phase i s superseded by the second  or "management phase", c h a r a c t e r i z e d by a s e r i e s o f t r e a t ments u l t i m a t e l y designed t o encourage optimum y i e l d harvest  time i s reached  (FAO, 1973).  T h i s i s the stand  development phase and i n c l u d e s t h i n n i n g pruning.  until  (plus spacing) and  The main emphasis i n the stand establishment  phase  i s t o c a r r y out management r e s p o n s i b i l i t i e s as e f f i c i e n t l y as p o s s i b l e , guided by c o s t e f f e c t i v e n e s s c r i t e r i o n w i t h due  c o n s i d e r a t i o n g i v e n t o t r a d e - o f f s between e f f i c i e n c y  and  equity.  On the other hand, d e c i s i o n s i n the stand  development phase i n v o l v e the q u e s t i o n :  does i t pay?  The  o b j e c t i v e f o r c a r r y i n g out these treatments i s t o i n c r e a s e both the q u a l i t y and q u a n t i t y o f product d e s i r e d .  In other  words, d e c i s i o n s to e s t a b l i s h and develop stands i n p l a n t a tions ,  "... must u l t i m a t e l y be based on a comparison of the b e n e f i t s expected with the c o s t l i k e l y to be i n c u r r e d , i n e s t a b l i s h i n g the type o f  -175f o r e s t s i n the most s u i t a b l e l o c a t i o n f o r producing the s o r t and q u a n t i t y of f o r e s t products and s e r v i c e s expected t o be s a l e a b l e i n the f u t u r e " . ( L e s l i e , 1971). T h i n n i n g and i n i t i a l are  spacing go hand-in-hand  and  s i l v i c u l t u r a l measures which c o u l d be a p p l i e d t o  i n c r e a s e p r o f i t a b i l i t y and/or de, 1970).  q u a l i t y of a stand  (Villiers  H i s t o r i c a l l y , spacings commonly used i n p l a n t a -  t i o n f o r e s t r y were d e r i v e d from a concept of management more concerned with the i n h e r e n t q u a l i t i e s o f wood than w i t h i t s economic p r o d u c t i o n (Johnston et a_l. , 1967) to  a l e s s e r extent s t i l l ,  logging. (1973).  and  on t e c h n i c a l requirements i n  In a summary of g l o b a l spacing p r a c t i c e s , E v e r t concluded t h a t ^economic reasons seem t o have been  the most important ones f o r d e t e r m i n i n g the closest- or lower l i m i t of s p a c i n g , and the timber q u a l i t y , the widest spacing or upper  limit.  The economic reasons i n t h i s case  seem t o be those i n timber p r o d u c t i o n , because w i t h timber q u a l i t y f a c t o r s , they determine value  together  the u l t i m a t e  of wood products. In  a d i s c u s s i o n on the h i s t o r i c a l r e l e v a n c e of  spacings adopted^  Wardle  initial  (1967) p o i n t e d out t h a t the common  2.7 x 2.7 meters espacement f o r softwood p l a n t a t i o n s i n East A f r i c a was practices.  predominantly i n f l u e n c e d by South A f r i c a n  I t was  adopted with the o b j e c t of producing  sawlogs w i t h an average diameter of 46 cm as q u i c k l y as possible.  Wide i n i t i a l  spacing has s i n c e then been main-  t a i n e d i n South A f r i c a to keep the c o s t of l a b o u r  .'require-  ment* f o r p l a n t i n g stock down i n the face of a heavy annual  -1*7.6p l a n t i n g programme.  I t i s f u r t h e r advanced t h a t the  ments f o r c l o s e spacing on the b a s i s of e a r l y branch  argusuppres-'  s i o n and weed c o n t r o l , and g r e a t e r o p p o r t u n i t y f o r s e l e c t i o n of  d e s i r e d r e s i d u a l stems are b a s e l e s s .  in  e a r l y branch  First,  the advantages  and week c o n t r o l are o f f s e t by the c o s t i n -  c u r r e d i n c a r r y i n g out e a r l y non-commercial t h i n n i n g . although  Second,  the need to leave the "best" stems f o r the f i n a l  i s obvious,  there i s no j u s t i f i c a t i o n i n s t a r t i n g w i t h  crop  so  many stems. The  initial  a t i o n s was  spacing o f 2.7  x 2.7 m i n softwood p l a n t -  adopted f o r sawlog p r o d u c t i o n .  Earlier discussion  i n t h i s t h e s i s showed t h a t a p a r t from sawlogs, veneer l o g s , pulpwood, p o l e s and p o s t s , are o t h e r products whose f u t u r e demand w i l l i n c r e a s e .  A uniform spacing s t r a t e g y may  o p t i m a l f o r a l l product c a t e g o r i e s . hectare b a s i s , a wide i n i t i a l  not  be  Furthermore,.on a per  spacing i s a p r o d u c t i o n s t r a t e g y  aimed a t m i n i m i z i n g labour i n p u t and by keeping p l a n t i n g stock down, i t r e s u l t s i n a r e d u c t i o n i n the p r o p o r t i o n of c o s t o f c a p i t a l content i n the e s t a b l i s h m e n t phase. C r e a t i o n of r u r a l employment o p p o r t u n i t i e s i s one of the s o c i a l goals Uganda i s committed t o , and the above s t r a t e g y is,  t h e r e f o r e , i n c o n f l i c t u n l e s s more h e c t a r e s are p l a n t e d .  R e d u c t i o n ' i n the c o s t of the c a p i t a l content o f e s t a b l i s h ment phase c o u l d be achieved by o t h e r means, such as making o p e r a t i o n s as manual as i s p o s s i b l e .  I f a market f o r i n t e r -  mediate products e x i s t s or i s developable  (which  should be  from  f o r e c a s t s of demand f o r o t h e r roundwood t y p e s ) , then a sound  -177s t r a t e g y which may a l s o be s o c i a l l y d e s i r a b l e , i s c l o s e initial  spacing with m u l t i p l e t h i n n i n g s .  With constant  r e t u r n s t o s c a l e i n p l a n t i n g , although wider spacing  results  i n l e s s labour employed per h e c t a r e , a g r e a t e r land area i s p l a n t e d f o r a f i x e d budget o r a g i v e n roundwood r e q u i r e ment.  In t h i s case, there i s no c o n f l i c t  ments.  i n labour r e q u i r e -  I f i n c r e a s e d spacing d i s t a n c e r e s u l t s i n i n c r e a s i n g  r e t u r n s t o s c a l e i n p l a n t i n g , i n c r e a s e s i n area p l a n t e d may not be l a r g e enough t o o f f s e t decreased  labour i n p u t .  However, even on a per h e c t a r e b a s i s , s i t u a t i o n s where wide spacing i s j u s t i f i a b l e may be i n t e g r a t i o n of p l a n t a t i o n f o r e s t r y with g r a z i n g  o r the p r a c t i c e o f the taungya  system r e q u i r e d t o l a s t say 5 years on a g i v e n t r a c t o f land b e f o r e farmers move t o another. exist  These p o s s i b i l i t i e s  and are d e s i r a b l e because i n a d d i t i o n t o the f o r e s t r y  s e c t o r , other a l t e r n a t i v e s f o r l i v e l i h o o d a r e generated on the same t r a c t o f l a n d . The  f i n a n c i a l r e s u l t s o f timber p r o d u c t i o n a r e i n -  f l u e n c e d by the spacing adopted.  The c o s t s o f o p e r a t i o n s  i n the establishment phase, f i r e p r o t e c t i o n , pruning and the hidden  c o s t of w a i t i n g f o r the crop t o get e s t a b l i s h e d  are determined t o some extent by spacing.  The d i s c o u n t e d  revenue r e a l i z a b l e i s dependent upon the volume and t i m i n g of p r o d u c t i o n and upon p r i c e which i n t u r n depends on quality.  The f a c t o r s o f q u a l i t y i n f l u e n c e d by spacing  include s i z e - c l a s s d i s t r i b u t i o n , taper,  knot-diameter,  s t r a i g h t n e s s , and volume and d i s t r i b u t i o n o f j u v e n i l e wood.  -178-  T h e r e f o r e , to determine the spacing w i t h the h i g h e s t r e t u r n s , one would need t o know the response to  o f the crop  spacing and r e a c t i o n s of the market to q u a l i t y  casts.  In p r a c t i c e , t h i s i s d i f f i c u l t  i n wood p r o c e s s i n g technology  and  fore-  c o n s i d e r i n g changes  consumer t a s t e .  Assuming  a p r i c e - s i z e g r a d i e n t and premiums f o r q u a l i t y e x i s t are l i k e l y  and  to c o n t i n u e , i t becomes easy to estimate  optimum spacing.  the  F i g u r e 13 shows t h a t where a p r i c e - s i z e  g r a d i e n t e x i s t s , d i s c o u n t e d revenue DR(A)  will  first  rise  and t h e r e a f t e r f a l l g r a d u a l l y because the compensating i n f l u e n c e of s i z e i s more than o f f s e t by r e d u c t i o n i n volume p r o d u c t i o n due  to i n c r e a s e d spacing.  Without a  p r i c e - s i z e g r a d i e n t , d i s c o u n t e d revenue DR(B)  remains con-  s t a n t f o r a range of spacings and t h e r e a f t e r f a l l s with the d e c l i n e i n volume p r o d u c t i o n . s i n c e d i s c o u n t e d expenditure  rapidly,  On the other hand,  (DE) depends more on c o s t of  p l a n t i n g , i t f a l l s much more s l o w l y as p l a n t i n g d i s t a n c e i s increased.  The optimum spacing occurs where the r a t e  of  decrease  i n DE equals the r a t e of i n c r e a s e  of  d i s c o u n t e d revenue.  (decrease)  Where a p r i c e - s i z e g r a d i e n t e x i s t s ,  t h i s spacing i s r e p r e s e n t e d by S  , and without,  i t is S .  F i n a l l y , i n i t i a l spacing depends on the growth c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of s p e c i e s p l a n t e d .  For example, i f the  management o b j e c t i v e i s p r o d u c t i o n of a s h o r t r o t a t i o n biomass crop, c l o s e spacing i s d e s i r a b l e . of  species  eucalypts.  In t h i s  category  and e s p e c i a l l y r e l e v a n t to Uganda, are the Unless c l o s e l y p l a n t e d , by the time  financial  -179-  DR(A) DR(B) DE  -  discounted revenue with p r i c e gradient discounted revenue a t constant p r i c e for'timber regardless o f s i z e discounted cost optimum spacing when p r i c e - s i z e gradient e x i s t s  S  - optimum spacing with no p r i c e - s i z e gradient  -  DR(A)  DE  DR(B)  B  A  FIGURE 13 Determination Source:  o f Optimum  adapted  Spacing  f r o m G r a y s o n e t a l . (1967)  -180and/or t e c h n i c a l m a t u r i t y o c c u r s , the f u l l p o t e n t i a l o f the s i t e may not have been f u l l y u t i l i z e d .  Of course i f  l e f t beyond the optimum r o t a t i o n age, i t i s p o s s i b l e t h a t through spaced  higher m o r t a l i t y i n the dense stands, a w i d e l y e u c a l y p t crop may c a t c h up with or even exceed the  y i e l d i n the dense stand. T h i n n i n g i s the i n t e n t i o n a l removal o f p a r t o f a (5) t r e e crop  .  I t i s normally c a r r i e d out a f t e r the  e s t a b l i s h m e n t phase  and f o r t h a t reason,  pre-commercial  t h i n n i n g d u r i n g the l a s t weeding i s best c o n s i d e r e d under t h a t phase.  The emphasis i n t h i s d i s c u s s i o n w i l l be on  commercial t h i n n i n g . Where the market f o r these i n t e r m e d i a t e h a r v e s t s e x i s t s , labour i s abundant and t h e r e are no s i g n i f i c a n t t e c h n o l o g i c a l or b i o l o g i c a l problems, commercial t h i n n i n g i s a r a t i o n a l p r o p o s i t i o n (Brown, 1976).  Forest plantations  are i n most cases s t a r t e d so as t o make important butions to n a t i o n a l goals.  contri-  They are i n f a c t o f t e n e s -  t a b l i s h e d i n r e l a t i o n t o a n t i c i p a t e d f u t u r e economic development.  Therefore, t h i s "market-industry-plantation  system" can have three s t a t e s depending on whether the dominant c o n s t r a i n t on f u r t h e r expansion  i s the market,  wood r e s o u r c e or i n d u s t r i a l c a p a c i t y (Darvagel, 1976). We s h a l l r e f e r t o these as macro c o n s t r a i n t s . each o f these fti'ay be  manipulated  Fortunately,  >- by management.  Other  c o n s t r a i n t s l e s s amenable t o m a n i p u l a t i o n , are the micro ( b i o l o g i c a l and t e c h n o l o g i c a l ) c o n s t r a i n t s r e l a t e d t o the  -181wood resource  and i n d u s t r y .  Depending on which o f the macro c o n s t r a i n t s a r e operative,  t h e i r i n f l u e n c e on the r o l e o f t h i n n i n g i s  shown i n Table 45.  When c a p a c i t y and resources are  l i m i t i n g , s u b s t a n t i a l premiums f o r good q u a l i t y e x i s t and wood p r i c e s are h i g h .  A double s t r a t e g y o f c a p a c i t y  expansion and t h i n n i n g i s ' recommended.  When a v a i l a b i l i t y  of markets i s the c o n s t r a i n t , p r i c e s of wood products w i l l be depressed and i n d u s t r y may, t h e r e f o r e , be l e s s w i l l i n g to pay the a d d i t i o n a l c o s t f o r wood from t h i n n i n g operat i o n s and w i l l press  f o r cheaper wood from c l e a r f e l l i n g .  There i s a l a r g e consumer s u r p l u s and reduced producer surplus.  I f c a p a c i t y i s t h e c o n s t r a i n t , management must  f i n d ways t o a l t e r the wood input t o i n c r e a s e m i l l put.  F i n a l l y , where a resource  ment has s e v e r a l o p p o r t u n i t i e s  through-  c o n s t r a i n t e x i s t s , managef o r expanding the system.  For example, t h i n n i n g enables e a r l y y i e l d s t o be obtained w h i l e r e t a i n i n g e x i s t i n g stands i n p r o d u c t i o n .  Thinning  i n t e n s i t y can be used t o c o n t r o l t h e t i m i n g and q u a n t i t y of y i e l d s a v a i l a b l e .  I t may t h e r e f o r e be concluded t h a t ,  "... the r o l e o f t h i n n i n g i n development f o r e s t r y w i l l vary a c c o r d i n g t o the combination o f the p l a n t a t i o n - i n d u s t r i a l system by market, c a p a c i t y or resource constraints. I t i s c l e a r that a l t e r n a t i v e t h i n n i n g regimes can have imp o r t a n t e f f e c t s on even n a t i o n a l o b j e c t i v e s and t h a t the s e l e c t i o n o f the c o r r e c t r o l e of t h i n n i n g s i s an important and complex task" Darvagel (1976).  TABLE 45 The I n f l u e n c e o f Market, C a p a c i t y and Wood Resource A v a i l a b i l i t y on the Role o f Thinning E f f e c t s on the Role o f T h i n n i n g  S t a t e o f the System Markets  Capacity  Resources  1.  LIMITING  Adequate  Adequate  Wood p r i c e s low. D i f f i c u l t t o s e l l higher c o s t t h i n n i n g s .  2f  Adequate  LIMITING  Adequate  S u b s t a n t i a l premiums f o r good q u a l i t y and s i z e s . D i f f i c u l t t o s e l l small m a t e r i a l which may be thinned t o waste. Thinning from above c o n s i d e r e d  3.  Limiting or Adequate  Limiting or  SURPLUS  Wood p r i c e s low. D i f f i c u l t t o s e l l thinnings a t a l l ,  LIMITING  Wood p r i c e s high, to expansion.  Thinning  LIMITING  Wood p r i c e s high. c a p a c i t y expansion  T h i n n i n g and essential.  4.  a  Adequate Adequate  Adequate Adequate LIMITING  essential  co  /a /b  Source: Darvagel (1976). b e l i e v e d t o be the s i t u a t i o n i n Uganda because although s u r p l u s land e x i s t s and there i s a t present a f a i r l y low l e v e l of u t i l i z a t i o n i n ' t h e t r o p i c a l high f o r e s t , these w i l l help a l l e v i a t e the resource c o n s t r a i n t problem i n the f u t u r e  i  -18 3The  f o r e c a s t of f u t u r e wood requirements' i n Uganda  shows t h a t p o t e n t i a l consumption exceeds supply.  There  i s need f o r f o r e s t managers to produce more veneer saw  l o g s , pulpwood, poles  roundwood q u a l i t y and  and  posts.  The  s i z e s i n t h i s mix  d i v e r s i t y of  i s enormous.  o p t i o n i s to e s t a b l i s h p l a n t a t i o n s to produce products.  The  saving advantages of t h i s l a t t e r approach and r o l e i n lowering  have i t s own  i n supply,  and  woodland as a hedge a g a i n s t  uncertainty  concern f o r the d i r e c t c o s t s  Otherwise, t h i n n i n g should  should  of  be c a r r i e d out  be encouraged, and  immediate s o l u t i o n t o c a p a c i t y expansion and  thinnings  offer  an  enhancement  availability.  Even i f t h i n n i n g i s d e s i r a b l e from a p u r e l y c o n s t r a i n t -viewpoint, the type and operations b i o l o g y and  sequence of  resource  thinning  are i n f l u e n c e d by the micro c o n s t r a i n t s of technology.  Shepherd  (1976) c l a s s i f i e d  l o g i c a l c o n s t r a i n t s i n t o three groups:  inherent  rooting habit;  the problem of  bio-  factors  of the s p e c i e s , i n c l u d i n g growth p a t t e r n , t o l e r a n c e , form and  only  From the above d i s c u s s i o n s  c o n s t r a i n t s , i t would appear t h a t  are d e s i r a b l e and  of resource  harvesting  A f o r e s t i n d u s t r i a l concern  i f the r e t u r n s exceed the c o s t s . on resource  i t s possible  c a r r y out t h i n n i n g s to feed i t s p r o c e s s i n g  plants with l i t t l e harvesting.  be  land-  u n i t c o s t s f o r wood growing and  make i t seem more a t t r a c t i v e .  One  specific  A l t e r n a t i v e l y , a given p l a n t a t i o n should  managed so as to y i e l d m u l t i p l e products.  may  and  stem  susceptibility  -184to d i s e a s e  and  insect attack;  and  such d i v e r s e aspects as c l i m a t e  site factors including  ( i n c l u d i n g wind),  moisture regime, s o i l p h y s i c a l and it  soil  chemical f a c t o r s  (here  i s the genotype-environment i n t e r a c t i o n which con-  s t i t u t e s the b i o l o g i c a l c o n s t r a i n t ) • Most p l a n t a t i o n s p e c i e s chosen on the b a s i s of  their  f a s t growth r a t e s are i n t o l e r a n t ( l i g h t demanding). i s j u s t as t r u e f o r P. r a d i a t a D. Don  (Shepherd,  as i t i s f o r P. p a t u l a S c h l . Sham (Karani, 197 6a) Cupressus l u s i t a n i c a M i l l , .  (Karani, 1976b) .  softwoods,canopy c l o s u r e i n the ages of 6-8  years.  1976) and these  stand occurs around  years and mutual competition  severe at 10-14  For  This  the  between t r e e s i s  T h i s r e s u l t s i n t r e e s having  h i g h l y v a r i a b l e diameter s i z e s . As competition  w i t h i n the stand  i t s s u s c e p t i b i l i t y to i n s e c t and  disease  example, D i p l o d i a pinea dieback and S i r e x n o c t i l i s F., of P.  r a d i a t a D.  i n a stand w i l l attacks.  On  attack.  so does For  deaths a s s o c i a t e d  with  have been a s s o c i a t e d w i t h crowded stands  Don.  Thinning  used to reduce overcrowding  r e s u l t i n lowered i n c i d e n c e of these  the other  hand, t h i n n i n g p r a c t i c e s o f t e n  encourage the frequency of d i s e a s e (Heather, 1976)  increases,  because the cutover  i n the remaining crop stumps and  damaged  remaining t r e e s become s u s c e p t i b l e to fungal i n f e c t i o n . In Uganda, s e v e r a l d e f e c t s have been found i n l i v i n g Cupressus l u s i t a n i c a M i l l , S c h l . Cham.  and  to some extent,  i n P.  patula  These i n c l u d e d h e a r t - r o t , t e r m i t e damage,  -ias-. combinations  of these two  and  healed  ;  drought-crack.  None of these are e a s i l y d e t e c t a b l e by any e x t e r n a l symptoms.  A c c o r d i n g t o Brown (19 66) , the f i r s t three of  the above d e f e c t s probably o r i g i n a t e d from some forms of bark-lesions.  T h e r e f o r e he concluded as f o l l o w s :  "This emphasizes the importance of keeping any k i n d of stem damage to an a b s o l u t e minimum, whether i t be caused by r a t s , by delayed or bad pruning, or by f e l l i n g and e x t r a c t i o n damage d u r i n g t h i n n i n g . " T h i n n i n g p r a c t i c e s are a l s o i n f l u e n c e d by s i t e ditions.  con-  In p a r t i c u l a r , moisture a v a i l a b i l i t y i s a c h i e f  determinant  o f pine growth p o t e n t i a l .  But i t i s a l s o i n  i t s e l f dependent upon the depth and moisture h o l d i n g c a p a c i t y of the s o i l which l i m i t s moisture by the stand which exhausts essential  it.  Therefore, i t i s absolutely  t h a t a stand should not exceed  a s i t e t o supply moisture.  storage, and  the p o t e n t i a l o f  I f not, malformation  death of the t r e e crop ensues  (Butcher and Havel,  or u l t i m a t e 1976).  Pines and e u c a l y p t s are g e n e r a l l y deep-rooted t h e r e f o r e more t o l e r a n t t o moisture t h i s r o o t i n g h a b i t , the damage thinned stands i s l e s s e n e d .  stress.  and  Because of  of windthrow i n h e a v i l y However, i n . e x t r e m e l y  f e r t i l e and h i g h r a i n f a l l areas of Uganda, C.  lusitanica  grows.. - .-with, . c h a r a c t e r i s t i c a l l y shallow r o o t system and ;  i s s u s c e p t i b l e t o windthrow  (Kaumi, 1976).  T e c h n o l o g i c a l c o n s t r a i n t s to t h i n n i n g r e l a t e t o s i z e and q u a l i t y of m a t e r i a l , and h i g h e r units of i n p u t s (labour  -186-  and c a p i t a l ) per u n i t volume of wood produced.  The  answers l i e i n t e c h n o l o g i c a l i n n o v a t i o n s i n f o r e s t i n d u s t r i e s to f a c i l i t a t e small l o g and/or lower  quality  p r o c e s s i n g and choice o f a p p r o p r i a t e technique(s) harvesting process.  i n the  Some of these i n n o v a t i o n s a l r e a d y  e x i s t and Uganda c o u l d b e n e f i t a l o t by adopting them. For example, use of r e t r a c t a b l e chucks i n plywood m i l l s has reduced  the diameter  of the core stud c o n s i d e r a b l y ,  such t h a t some l a t e t h i n n i n g s or what were predominantly saw  logs may  now  be p e e l e d .  In the s a w m i l l i n g i n d u s t r y ,  s i d e and e n d - j o i n t i n g are i n n o v a t i o n s t h a t have c o n t r i b u t e d to i n c r e a s e d u t i l i z a t i o n p u l p i n g process through  of small l o g s . i t s reduced  The  Kraft  demand on wood  q u a l i t i e s f o r p u l p , has made p o s s i b l e the u t i l i z a t i o n  of  small l o g s . Techniques used f o r h a r v e s t i n g t h i n n i n g s the world  over,  have evolved along .orthodox l i n e s , none of which are i n digeneous to Uganda. ors proceeding and  They began w i t h horses and  farm  to t r a c t o r s w i t h t r a i l e r s , c r a w l e r  r u b b e r - t y r e d s k i d d e r s (Grayburn,  19 76) .  tract-  tractors  These  develop-  ments have been i n response  to changing  inputs.  c o s t s are, the c o s t s p l u s i n -  Other l e s s obvious  t e r e s t on roads and  r e l a t i v e p r i c e s of  l a n d i n g s r e q u i r e d , and the l o s s of p r o -  d u c t i o n from these areas f o r the r e s t of the r o t a t i o n . Thinnings are labour i n t e n s i v e and where the average wage r a t e s are h i g h , r e g i o n s have opted f o r l e s s much more mechanized) or none.  The  (and  "silvicultural  -18 7r e v o l u t i o n " i n New  Zealand i s towards wider  heavy e a r l y t h i n n i n g to waste and  spacing,  no commercial  In Uganda, wage r a t e s are r e l a t i v e l y low and techniques should saw  thinning.  therefore  be reasonably l a b o u r - i n t e n s i v e .  Chain  or two-man c r o s s c u t saws f o r f e l l i n g , bucking and  of axes f o r l i m b i n g  are recommended.  The  pine and  p l a n t a t i o n s are c u r r e n t l y l o c a t e d on h i l l unsuitable  to t r a c t o r use.  On  the other  use  cypress  s l o p e s , some hand, the newly  e s t a b l i s h e d P. c a r i b a e a Morelet v a r . hondurensis p l a n t a t i o n s are l o c a t e d i n areas w i t h r e l a t i v e l y f l a t t e r r a i n . and^,therefore^offer can be j u s t i f i e d .  p o s s i b i l i t i e s f o r mechanization i f i t I t i s worth emphasizing t h a t  economic e v a l u a t i o n of t h i n n i n g i s complex and i n t e r a c t i o n of t r e e - s t a n d ,  utilization,  the includes!.the  l i n k e d economic (6)  and  l o c a l management f a c t o r s  (Fenton,  1976)  However, of paramount importance i s the purpose f o r which t h i n n i n g i s being  c a r r i e d out, which i n t u r n i s a  r e f l e c t i o n of management g o a l s . the f o r e s t resource  Therefore,  i s important.  As was  ownership of  discussed  in  Chapter 4, there are at the moment, few woodlot owners i n the country, although one  of the long-term s t r a t e g i e s of  Uganda F o r e s t Department i s to encourage i n d i v i d u a l s to establish forest plantations.  I f the o b j e c t i v e of such  p l a n t a t i o n s i s the supply  of roundwood a g a i n s t  increasing  s c a r c i t y of fuelwood,  c h a r c o a l , b u i l d i n g poles  p o s t s , then t h i n n i n g d e c i s i o n s w i l l be j u s t i f i e d by specifications.  On  the other  and product  hand, i f i n f u t u r e i n d i v i d u a l s  -188d e c i d e t o e s t a b l i s h and manage p l a n t a t i o n s w i t h the s o l e purpose o f s e l l i n g logs t o c o n v e r s i o n assumes a s p e c i a l r o l e .  plants,  thinning  The woodlot farmer i s not d i r e c t l y  i n t e r e s t e d i n f a c t o r s a f f e c t i n g r e t u r n s t o wood i n d u s t r i e s . His interest w i l l be in maximizing returns to his investment. F o r example, i f a p r i c e - s i z e g r a d i e n t t h i n t o i n c r e a s e the p r o p o r t i o n But  :  e x i s t s , the owner w i l l  o f l a r g e r dimension t r e e s .  i n f a c t the optimum path assuming an o u t l e t f o r small  diameter m a t e r i a l might w e l l be to manage p l a n t a t i o n s f o r a comparatively age,  large production  thus g e n e r a t i n g  o f small m a t e r i a l a t young  some cash and then change and go f o r  volume i n l a r g e s i z e s .  F i n a l l y , f o r e s t i n d u s t r i e s may i n  f u t u r e g e t i n v o l v e d i n wood p r o d u c t i o n . tralia  As shown i n Aus-  (McConchie, 1976), t h e i r d e c i s i o n w i l l be more  complex than t h a t o f the woodlot farmer and w i l l  include  s t r a t e g y , p o l i c y and o b j e c t i v e s , a n t i c i p a t e d wood demand supply  s i t u a t i o n , f i n a n c i a l considerations  and government  incentives. Pruning i s another s i l v i c u l t u r a l o p e r a t i o n under stand development. moval o f l i v e , dying tree.  included  I t may be d e f i n e d as the r e -  o r dead branches from the standing  The primary aim i s to produce wood f r e e from dead or  l i v e knots o u t s i d e nent q u e s t i o n  the pruning c o r e .  i s : does the v a l u e o f i n c r e a s e d  j u s t i f y t h i s operation?  a perti-  q u a l i t y o f wood  There are two d i v e r g e n t  of thought from f o r e s t l i t e r a t u r e . pruning should  Once a g a i n ,  schools  One group b e l i e v e s  .not be undertaken because o f the expense  -189i n c u r r e d , changing increment.  The  end-use requirements,and  second  group advocates  l o s s of  pruning on  the  grounds of b e t t e r q u a l i t y , appearance, s t r e n g t h and economic r e t u r n . The  i n d i r e c t b e n e f i t s c o n f e r r e d by pruning upon  management i n c l u d e easy access i n t o young p l a n t a t i o n s and r e d u c t i o n i n f i r e hazard.  Even f o r pulpwood,  avoidance  of knots i s b e n e f i c i a l because of i t s d u l l i n g e f f e c t  on  c h i p p e r k n i v e s and the longer p e r i o d r e q u i r e d i n chemical digestion.  Taking these b e n e f i t s as g i v e n , does improved  q u a l i t y d i r e c t l y pay the c o s t s i n c u r r e d ? e f f e c t s on c o n v e r s i o n and  Ignoring the  sawing c o s t s , i t i s necessary  t h a t the compounded c o s t of pruning i s o f f s e t by the e x t r a r e t u r n s a n t i c i p a t e d from the s a l e of k n o t - f r e e timber, one c o n t a i n i n g l i v e as opposed t o dead knots.  To show i f  such r e l a t i o n s h i p h o l d s , t h e r e i s a need t o determine d e s i r a b l e knotty - and pruning - cores 1976).  or  (Banks and  the  Prevost,  In a d d i t i o n , the e f f e c t of l i v e pruning on  increment,  the t i m i n g of the pruning o p e r a t i o n and a d e r i v a t i o n of pruning schedules should be c a r r i e d  out, i f indeed  this  operation i s " p r o f i t a b l e " . In the case of Uganda, t h e r e i s a t p r e s e n t no  clear  p r i c e - s i z e g r a d i e n t nor premiums f o r c l e a r k n o t - f r e e wood. Therefore, i t i s d i f f i c u l t The  secondary  to j u s t i f y pruning o p e r a t i o n s .  b e n e f i t s j u s t i f y b u t t - l o g pruning.  i n view of prospects f o r exports of wood products  However, and  supply of p e e l e r logs f o r the t e a - c h e s t and match i n d u s t r i e s ,  -190- ' the c u r r e n t  p o l i c y on pruning needs s e r i o u s  recon-  sideration . 5.2 24  Other C u l t u r a l Treatments  Under t h i s heading, two z a t i o n and The  tree  initial  prominent o p e r a t i o n s ,  (breeding) improvement w i l l be  fertili-  discussed.  z e a l with which f o r e s t e r s undertook a f f o r e s t a -  t i o n programs i s being weakened by r e p o r t s of d e c l i n e i n p r o d u c t i v i t y during (Evans, 1976).  the  second and  Secondly, there  produce wood of s u i t a b l e q u a l i t y  subsequent r o t a t i o n s  i s a growing tendency to and ..desirable growth  c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s f o r s p e c i f i c uses.  These -two  considerations  :  i l l u s t r a t e the p o t e n t i a l s i g n i f i c a n c e of f e r t i l i z a t i o n t r e e improvement i n f o r e s t p l a n t a t i o n s .  Again there  need to commit r e s o u r c e s to these o p e r a t i o n s be  justified  economically.  With regard  to  Inorganic  fertilization,  the t r u e s o c i a l c o s t of  i t s worth fertilization.  f e r t i l i z e r s d i v e r t e d from a g r i c u l t u r a l use  f o r e s t r y i n c u r an o p p o r t u n i t y In some regions  i s no  i f they cannot  because i t i s needed i n the a g r i c u l t u r a l s e c t o r , must be weighed a g a i n s t  and  to  cost.  of the world such as South A f r i c a ,  s e l f - s u f f i c i e n c y i n wood products i s a n a t i o n a l p o l i c y .  But  because there  i s l a c k of s u i t a b l e land f o r a f f o r e s t a t i o n ,  fertilization  has  become a sound proposition f o r i n c r e a s i n g  y i e l d s per u n i t area Hagenstein  ( S c h u l t z , 1976).  On the other hand,  (1977) suggested t h a t based on the  of the Japanese and  experience  Germans, American f o r e s t e r s have r e -  cognized the promise of s u b s t a n t i a l l y i n c r e a s i n g  timber  -191y i e l d s by  fertilizing.  This  i n t e r e s t was  turned i n t o  p r a c t i c e because of r e l a t i v e l y cheap i n p u t s . 1973,  the enthusiasm has  dropped somewhat, due  g r e a t l y i n f l a t e d chemical f e r t i l i z e r Technically, f e r t i l i z a t i o n and  since  to  the  prices.  o f t r e e crops i s f e a s i b l e  has-. • been shown to be a p r o f i t a b l e f i n a n c i a l under-  taking  i n Eucalyptus g r a n d i s  f a t h e r and  MacGillivray,  ( H i l l ) Maiden stands  1971;  Schultz,  of p i n e s i s sometimes u n p r e d i c t a b l e  of f e r t i l i z e r  (Penne-  197 6) although  (Schultz,  major u n r e s o l v e d t e c h n i c a l problem i s  1976).  ~.\. the  that The  "technique  a p p l i c a t i o n " which r e f e r s to the proper com-  b i n a t i o n of placement and and  But  time of a p p l i c a t i o n  (Woods,  1976)  should be chosen on the b a s i s of optimum q u a n t i t i e s  the kinds of f e r t i l i z e r (Pennefather and reported  MacGillivray,  results for f i e l d  wood areas i n Uganda. object  required  of a p p l y i n g  on the main s o i l  1976) .  fertilizer  Karani trials  types  (1976c) i n three s o f t -  At Lendu f o r e s t p l a n t a t i o n ,  fertilizers  was  and  the  to g i v e the best young  t r e e s a good s t a r t which would l a t e r make markings f o r thinnings  easier.  were i n c o n c l u s i v e . o b j e c t i v e , the  The  r e s u l t s f o r P.  A second f e r t i l i z e r  on the  V i c t o r i a and  Apart from NPK, were a l s o added.  Cham as i t s  caribaea  impoverished sandy  on h e a v i l y leached red  the m i c r o n u t r i e n t s The  Schl.  t r i a l had  improvement of growth of P.  var hondurensis' p l a n t e d around Lake  patula  boron and  Morelet soils  soils.  manganese  r e s u l t s i n d i c a t e d t h a t P.  M o r e l e t var hondurensis responded w e l l , w i t h the  caribaea leaves  -192changing from y e l l o w i s h - g r e e n a c c e l e r a t e d height  growth.  t o dark-green; and an  The o b j e c t i v e o f the t h i r d  f e r t i l i z e r t r i a l was t o improve on the poor s u r v i v a l o f i  P. c a r i b a e a Morelet v a r hondurensis, P. Kesiya P. oocarpa Schiede a t Alungamosimosii i n t h i s r e g i o n are poor i n phosphorus.  Royle and  The s o i l s ' Therefore,  single  phosphate and NPK were a p p l i e d and,in a d d i t i o n , the r e s u l t s from f e r t i l i z e r a p p l i c a t i o n were compared w i t h t h a t o f c l e a n weeding.  The r e s u l t s showed the i n f l u e n c e  of c l e a n weeding on s u r v i v a l was s u p e r i o r t o t h a t o f e i t h e r the s i n g l e phosphate or NPK a p p l i c a t i o n s . on these f i n d i n g s , Karani  Based  (1976c) concluded as f o l l o w s :  "The use o f i n o r g a n i c f e r t i l i z e r s i n f o r e s t r y i n Uganda has so f a r been conf i n e d t o r a i s i n g o f p l a n t i n g stock i n nurseries. The r a t e s o f growth o f e x o t i c c o n i f e r p l a n t a t i o n s i n the f i e l d (have) been q u i t e good and i t has not been thought necessary o r economic t o apply fertilizers. F i e l d f e r t i l i z e r t r i a l s have been c a r r i e d out on some o f the s i t e s growing Pinus species. With exception of l a k e shore a l l u v i a l sands and Sesse I s l a n d ' s leached red s o i l s , response by pines t o f e r t i l i z e r s has been poor. ...The s u c c e s s f u l a f f o r e s t a t i o n o f J u b i y a sandy and Towa r e d s o i l s r e q u i r e s the use (of) f e r t i l i z e r s e s p e c i a l l y magnesium and potassium t o o b t a i n economic growth r a t e s . " F i n a l l y , f e r t i l i z e r t r i a l s were c a r r i e d out i n p l a n t a t i o n s o f E. g r a n d i s  ( H i l l ) Maiden i n West N i l e  d i s t r i c t w i t h the o b j e c t i v e o f g e t t i n g q u a l i t a t i v e information  on the e f f e c t o f i n o r g a n i c  fertilizers,  -193i n c l u d i n g t r a c e elements, on dieback, s u r v i v a l and of the s p e c i e s . E. g r a n d i s  The  r e s u l t s indicated that  ( H i l l ) Maiden was  growth  dieback of  not caused by n u t r i e n t  d e f i c i e n c y or l a c k of minor elements l i k e z i n c and The  s p e c i e s and  provenances used were u n s u i t a b l e  c l i m a t e of the r e g i o n  boron.  to  the  (Karani, 1975).  These r e s u l t s are i n themselves i n c o n c l u s i v e  and  l i k e most f e r t i l i z e r experiments, l i a b l e to wide margins of e r r o r .  Furthermore, p o s s i b l e y i e l d decreases i n the  second and  subsequent r o t a t i o n s might make f e r t i l i z e r  a p p l i c a t i o n i n the  f i e l d a real proposition.  Finally,  v a r i e t i e s of s p e c i e s produced as a r e s u l t of  intensive  t r e e breeding programmes may.be f e r t i l i z e r r e s p o n s i v e a d d i t i o n to p o s s e s s i n g for  in  the d e s i r a b l e t r a i t s they were bred  initially. The  f e a s i b i l i t y of a p p l y i n g  inorganic  fertilizers  i n f o r e s t p l a n t a t i o n s i s governed by i t s a v a i l a b i l i t y i n terms of p r i c e and  a l t e r n a t i v e uses.  a g r i c u l t u r a l s e c t o r f o r NPK due  The  demand of  f e r t i l i z e r s i s on the  the  increase  to t e c h n o l o g i c a l developments i n crop husbandry.  In  the past, chemical f e r t i l i z e r s have been a v a i l a b l e to farmers i n both MDCs and prices. was  The  LDCs a t p r o g r e s s i v e l y lower r e a l  long-run d e c l i n e i n r e a l f e r t i l i z e r  checked i n the e a r l y '70s,  and  now  there  prices  i s general  agreement t h a t t h i s long-run d e c l i n e t h a t p e r s i s t e d from the mid-1920's to the end  of the 1960's i s u n l i k e l y t o  reappear  Table 46  (Ruttan,  1975).  shows t h a t consumption  -19.4-  TABLE 4 6;  NPK use 1975/76 i n A f r i c a n C o u n t r i e s Consuming a t L e a s t 2000 m e t r i c , tons per annum ( E x c l u d i n g Rhodesia and South A f r i c a ) .  Egypt Morocco Algeria Sudan Zambia Nigeria Tunisia Kenya Senegal Ivory Coast Libya Ethiopia Tanzania Ghana Mauritius Cameroon Malawi Reunion Swaziland Chad Madagascar Mozambique Uganda S i e r r a Leone Zaire Angola Somalia Benin Botswana Congo Togo Liberia Guinea TOTAL Source:  Consumption  Production  Country (  —  227,540 134,700 125,500 0 5,600 1,000 145,024 0 28,700 11,113 0 0 17,559 0 3,900 0 0 0 0 0 0 3,700 4,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 227,140 0 0 0 895,476  Ceres. 1977 V o l . 10(4).  m e t r i c tons-  501,192 163,000 162,400 95,100 78,000 52,300 48,697 44,413 43,600 42,800 35,900 33,069 29,670 27,700 24,142 12,200 11,120 9,400 9,400 9,100 5,947 5,700 5,200 5,100 5,100 4,100 3,000 2,970 2,400 2,300 2,291 2,200 2,000 1,1.481,511  -195of  NPK  i n A f r i c a exceeded domestic  p r o d u c t i o n and  i n c r e a s i n g amounts of f o r e i g n exchange w i l l continue to be spent on i t .  Evidence  b i o l o g i c a l breakthrough  i n support of t h i s i s the  i n p r o d u c t i o n of h i g h y i e l d i n g  and y e t f e r t i l i z e r - r e s p o n s i v e varieties of rice, maize and wheat. T h e r e f o r e , i n the immediate f u t u r e , f e r t i l i z a t i o n of  f o r e s t p l a n t a t i o n s i n most LDCs appears  infeasible  because of b a s i c human need of food before f i b r e , even if  f e r t i l i z e r a p p l i c a t i o n i n f o r e s t r y has been shown to  be p r o f i t a b l e .  The p i c t u r e i n the long-run i s e l u s i v e  but i s b e l i e v e d to be a f u n c t i o n of other t e c h n o l o g i c a l i n n o v a t i o n s i n the a g r o - f o r e s t r y i n d u s t r y . p o s s i b l e way  The  only  of f e r t i l i z i n g f o r e s t crops i n the s h o r t -  run i s through use of o r g a n i c and b i o l o g i c a l sources of plant n u t r i t i o n .  T h i s may  s o l u t i o n i n the long-run. been proven  (1977), n i t r o g e n supply i n pine  be augmented by seeding legumes t h a t f i x  n i t r o g e n and New  The technology has a l r e a d y  in forestry.  A c c o r d i n g to Hanson stands may  a l s o become the o p t i m a l  increase nutrient c y c l i n g .  Zealand, Lupinus  For example i n  arboreus has been shown t o f i x 160  kg/ha/year of n i t r o g e n w i t h 21 kg/ha/year of t h i s being added t o m i n e r a l s o i l i f e a - ^ ' year p e r i o d .  And  i n the  U n i t e d S t a t e s , 4 6 kg/ha/year were added t o a pine system by s e v e r a l legumes and  341 kg/ha was  eco-  added by  h a i r y i n d i g o i n s l a s h pine over a 5-year p e r i o d . Since  t h i s q u a n t i t y over the above l e n g t h of time i s approximately  equal t o the n i t r o g e n i n the biomass o f a  16-year o l d l o b l o l l y pine P. taeda plantation, use of legumes appears t o be a promising nitrogen u t i l i z e d  way t o supplement the s o i l  f o r t r e e growth.  The prospects o f  o r g a n i c or b i o l o g i c a l f e r t i l i z a t i o n seem encouraging (Carr, p e r . comm.) . t h a t Ruttan  I t i s f o r t h i s k i n d o f achievement  (197 5) observed,  "A most s e r i o u s q u e s t i o n which the conference (of A s i a n P r o d u c t i v i t y O r g a n i z a t i o n ) d i d not attempt t o address i s t h a t o f a l t e r n a t i v e sources o f p l a n t nutrition. The r e c e n t high p r i c e o f f e r t i l i z e r has served again t o d i r e c t a t t e n t i o n o f r e s e a r c h s c i e n t i s t s and a d m i n i s t r a t o r s to the p o t e n t i a l f o r o r g a n i c and b i o l o g i c a l sources o f p l a n t nutrition." The  p o t e n t i a l f o r o r g a n i c and b i o l o g i c a l  i n f o r e s t r y e x i s t s i n Uganda.  fertilization  For example, ai\ i n t e g r a t e d  f o r e s t r y - g r a z i n g system u s i n g legumes f o r f e r t i l i z e r i s feasible.  Secondly, taungya, a g r i - s i l v i c u l t u r e o r Shamba  system w i t h farmers growing legumes such as beans, i s another p o s s i b i l i t y . spacing as d i s c u s s e d  Both these c o n d i t i o n s r e q u i r e wide above.  Tree improvement i s the second treatment and  operation  i t i n v o l v e s the use o f b e t t e r t r e e s t o i n c r e a s e y i e l d  of wood from f o r e s t land.  One aspect o f i t i s the g e n e t i c  improvement o f t r e e s , which i s a c h a r a c t e r i s t i c a l l y  long-  term o p e r a t i o n t h a t i s a t the same time r e l a t i v e l y irreversible.  Genetic  improvement looks a t : a d a p t a b i l i t y ,  -197r e s i s t a n c e to p e s t s , growth r a t e s , t r e e form and and wood q u a l i t i e s  (Zobel, 1974).  The  quality  tree species  grown by f o r e s t managers have had n a t u r a l s e l e c t i o n operate  on them f o r thousands of y e a r s .  Unfortunately,  5  t h e i r a d a p t a t i o n to s u r v i v a l has been s i t e  specific  whereas p l a n t a t i o n f o r e s t r y based on e x o t i c s p e c i e s i n v o l v e s use o f unfamiliar s i t e s .  Therefore,  survival  c o n s i d e r a t i o n s i n t r e e improvement programs are a b s o l u t e l y essential.  The  a b i l i t y of a t r e e to s u r v i v e on a given  s i t e i s d e f i n i t e l y a minimum requirement of view of the f o r e s t manager  from the p o i n t  (Thor, 1975) .  Volume, wood s p e c i f i c g r a v i t y ; and r e s i s t a n c e are the next most important i n a g e n e t i c s program  disease  t r a i t s to manipulate  ( V i l l i e r s de, 1970;  Zobel, 1974).  Tree improvement programs aimed at producing q u a l i t y l o g s have been  a breakthrough  Banks and Van Vuuren, 1976; Breeding  f o r reduced  better  (Gladstone,  1975;  Barnes and M u l l i n , 1976).  e n d - s p l i t t i n g i n E. g r a n d i s  (Hill)  Maiden i s c u r r e n t l y being c a r r i e d out i n South A f r i c a . I n c r e a s i n g the a d a p t a t i o n of P. p a t u l a S c h l . Cham to a l t i t u d e s i s another.  The  advantages o f breeding  r e s i s t a n t t r e e s as opposed to chemical obvious  i n an e n v i r o n m e n t a l l y  (Falkenhagen, 1976).  disease  c o n t r o l are  conscious world of today  In East A f r i c a , a major  breeding  program has been p r o d u c t i o n of P. r a d i a t a D. Don r e s i s t a n t to Dothistroma-  low  varieties  pini.  Once again, the "does i t pay?"  question i s a  - 1 9 8-  c r i t i c a l one  f o r t r e e improvement work s i n c e i t i n v o l v e s  l a r g e investments and . . . the- r e t u r n s future  ( P o r t e r f i e l d , 1975).  Evidence fromVthe  i n d i c a t e s t h i s i s f i n a n c i a l l y and w i t h a 17 to 21 percent (Zobel, 1974).  economically  r a t e of r e t u r n a r e a l  On  feasible possibility  thus are  land-saving.  r a t i o n a l p l a n t a t i o n management should  an i n t e n s i v e g e n e t i c 1975).  United-States  In a d d i t i o n , t r e e improvement programmes  enable s h o r t e r r o t a t i o n l e n g t h and Therefore,  f a r i n t o the  improvement programme  include  (Gladstone,  the other hand, i n c r e a s i n g i n t e n s i t y i n g e n e t i c  programmes r e q u i r e s g r e a t e r  amounts of investment.  optimum i n t e n s i t y i s t h e r e f o r e , one ;  are l a r g e s t .  where net  The  benefits  Although t r e e improvement o f f e r s great  promise, i t s impact on the f o r e s t p l a n t a t i o n s of Uganda w i l l not be f e l t are  i n the immediate f u t u r e .  The  t h a t , p l a n t a t i o n s of the e x o t i c s p e c i e s  r e l a t i v e l y young,and i n a d d i t i o n , t h e r e are no  reasons are  still  trained  t r e e breeders or f o r e s t g e n e t i c i s t s . E. g r a n d i s  ( H i l l ) Maiden i s the p r i n c i p a l e u c a l y p t  s p e c i e s grown i n Uganda, however, due  to i t s lack of  r e s i s t a n c e to drought, i t does not grow w e l l i n the d r i e r regions  of the country.  The  immediate s o l u t i o n has  been  to s u b s t i t u t e the slower growing E. t e r e t i c o r n i s Smith (of  Zanzibar  or A u s t r a l i a n s t r a i n s ) f o r the  Another s o l u t i o n l i e s among e u c a l y p t s .  i n h y b r i d i z a t i o n , a f e a t u r e common  According  t i o n s of E. g r a n d i s  former.  to Karani  (1971), i n p l a n t a -  ( H i l l ) Maiden- i n Uganda, one  often  -19 9comes across t r e e s which look l i k e E. Smith-.  These are h y b r i d s of the two  i n stands regenerated from  tereticornis s p e c i e s which occur  seed c o l l e c t e d where the  s p e c i e s were growing t o g e t h e r .  two  Hybrids of E. grand!s  ( H i l l ) Maiden w i t h e i t h e r E. c a m a l d u l e n s i s Dehnh or E. t e r e t i c o r n i s Smith are expected r e s i s t a n t than E. g r a n d i s than e i t h e r of the two  to be much more  drought-  ( H i l l ) Maiden and more p r o d u c t i v e  species.  Therefore, Karani  (1971)  concluded as f o l l o w s : "As a long term p o l i c y , breeding of h y b r i d s , which are r e s i s t a n t t o severe: c o n d i t i o n s of the n o r t h (region of Uganda::) , and which can produce an economic crop of p o l e s and fuelwood w i l l be undertaken. Hybrids w i l l be produced n a t u r a l l y by p l a n t i n g the s p e c i e s i n q u e s t i o n together i n mixtures, the progeny of which w i l l be t e s t e d t o determine whether any d e s i r a b l e h y b r i d s have been e f f e c t e d . " 5.30  Formulation of I n t e n s i v e Management Models At the beginning of t h i s Chapter,  i t was  shown t h a t  p o t e n t i a l supply from the c u r r e n t f o r e s t e s t a t e w i l l not adequate i n meeting the l e v e l s o f f u t u r e consumption pected to p r e v a i l .  Close u t i l i z a t i o n , i f  adopted,  be  ex-  will  i n c r e a s e q u a n t i t y of timber a v a i l a b l e i n the short - or medium - term.  However, a long-term  s t r a t e g y w i l l be to  expand p l a n t a t i o n f o r e s t r y a c t i v i t i e s through area and/or i n t e n s i v e management.  expansion  A q u e s t i o n then a r i s e s , to  produce timber f o r what? Over 90 percent of roundwood consumption i n Uganda i s i n the form of fuelwood  and c h a r c o a l .  With the  indige-  -200nous sources becoming s c a r c e , p l a n t a t i o n s need t o be e s t a b l i s h e d to augment t h i s supply.  With r e s p e c t  to t h i s  product category, raw m a t e r i a l a v a i l a b i l i t y i s a f u n c t i o n o f the e x i s t e n c e o f a wood resource and  and i t s economic access  s u i t a b i l i t y of the s p e c i e s f o r burning.  govern the burning a b i l i t y  (expressed  Several  factors  i n terms o f i t s heat-  i n g power) o f fuelwood: composition o f wood w i t h r e s p e c t t o combustible substances, water and ash content; the s t r u c t u r e ( e s p e c i a l l y number and s i z e of pores) o f wood; and the t e c h nique o f burning. No s p e c i a l l o g q u a l i t y (stem form and s t r a i g h t n e s s ) i s r e q u i r e d f o r fuelwood and c h a r c o a l . (close t o small diameter) e x i s t s . volved  in splitting  An optimum diameter  T h i s i s to a v o i d c o s t s i n -  l a r g e stems.  Apart from a r e l a t i v e l y small diameter, poles and posts r e q u i r e s t r a i g h t stems with minimum taper.  An a d d i t i o n a l  requirement i s the ease w i t h which the wood can be t r e a t e d as cheaply as p o s s i b l e and y e t be e f f e c t i v e a g a i n s t fungal attacks.  From the t e c h n i c a l requirements o f these two  product c a t e g o r i e s , c l o s e spacing and  i n s e c t and  i s advocated i n both  eucalypt  softwood p l a n t a t i o n s . Those products r e q u i r i n g l a r g e spacing  t o produce  l a r g e - s i z e d l o g s a r e sawnwood, veneer and plywood. Common problems encountered i n sawing logs from softwood p l a n t a t i o n s a r e induced by the i n h e r e n t g e n e t i c i s t i c s that are q u a l i t y reducing, planted  character-  f a s t growth o f the s p e c i e s  and s i l v i c u l t u r a l treatments a p p l i e d t o the stands.  These problems are a l s o encountered s l i c i n g f o r veneer p r o d u c t i o n .  i n peeling or  Pulp, f i b r e b Q a r d and  p a r t i c l e b o a r d p r o d u c t i o n are l e s s demanding on raw m a t e r i a l requirements.  They may be manufactured  from  s m a l l - s i z e d l o g s o r waste from sawmill and plywood m i l l s . T h e r e f o r e , they o f f e r the g r e a t e s t f l e x i b i l i t y  i n stand  management. I t was suggested  i n the l a s t s e c t i o n o f Chapter 4  t h a t , c u r r e n t l y , two pine s p e c i e s o f f e r the g r e a t e s t opportunities f o r plantation forestry  (P. p a t u l a S c h l .  Cham and P. c a r i b a e a Mo-relet v a r hondurensis) . the d i s c u s s i o n s i n the e a r l i e r p a r t o f t h i s  Chapter  (part 5.22) , f i v e i n t e n s i v e management models and I E ) ; w i l l be.formulated species.  Based on  (IA, IB, IC, ID  f o r the management o f the p i n e  The r a t i o n a l e f o r t h e i r s e l e c t i o n and the  sequence of s i l v i c u l t u r a l o p e r a t i o n s f o r each model are shown i n Table 47.  The y i e l d t a b l e s f o r the f i v e models  are presented i n AppendixlV. to  Although,  these t a b l e s r e f e r  P. p a t u l a S c h l . Cham.only, the l i m i t e d r e s e a r c h i n  Uganda on P. c a r i b a e a M o r e l e t v a r hondurensis to  yield characteristics)  s i m i l a r s i t e index  (with r e s p e c t  has i n d i c a t e d that^on areas o f  the y i e l d  i n terms o f volume overbark  i s approximately the same f o r the two s p e c i e s (Kingston, 1970) . The remaining two management models i n Table 47 are for  E. g r a n d i s  ( H i l l ) Maiden.  These models were proposed  by Kingston (1972a and b) and the a p p r o p r i a t e r o t a t i o n  -202- i  l e n g t h and y i e l d s were p r e s e n t e d i n the second repo The socio-economic i m p l i c a t i o n s o f e u c a l y p t p l a n t a t i o n s w i l l be the o n l y a s p e c t t r e a t e d f u r t h e r , here after  ( i n Chapter 7 ) .  •-•able 47:  A survmary t a b l e f o r t h e p r o p o s e d i n t e n s i v e management models  Models Succestec I.  No. o r stems p e r hectare  Espacenent (M)  P R U N I N G  W E E D I N G  INITIAL STOCKING  1st  2nd  3rd  4th  5th  SOFTWOODS ( P . p a t u l a S c h l . Cham and P. c a r i b a e a M o r e l e t XA  IC  1st to M  2nd to M  3rd to M  4th to M  THINNING  PRESCRIPTONS  PRODUCT  DESIRED  v a r hondurensis)  2200  2.1x2.1  Yes  yes  No  No  No  Yes  No  No  no  S i n g l e l i g h t t h i n n i n g a t age 10 l e a v i n g a r e s i d u a l s t o c k o f c a . 1700 stems o e r h e c t a r e .  Pulpwood, p o l e s , posts, fuelwood and c h a r c o a l .  2200  2.1x2.1  Yes  Yes  Yes  No  No  Yes  Yes  Yes  No  One heavy t h i n n i n g a t s t a n d age 12, l e a v i n g a r e s i d u a l s t o c k i n g o f c a . 720 stems p e r hectare.  Pulpwood, p o l e s , p o s t s , fuexwooa, c h a r c o a l , and some v e n e e r and saw l o g s .  1800  2.4x2.4  Yes  Yes  Yes  Yes  No  Yes  Yes  Yes  No  Two t h i n n i n g s a t stand ages 12 and 20 y e a r s , l e a v i n g r e s i d u a l s t o c k s o f c a . 1000' and 500 stems per h e c t a r e , r e s p e c t i v e l y .  S i m i l a r prodt as i n -13 b u t p r o d u c i n g r.cr v e n e e r arid ss logsV e n e e r and saw logs,  i ID  900  3.3x3.3  Yes  Yes  Yes  Yes  Yes  Yes  Yes  Yes  Yes  One heavy t h i n n i n g a t ' s t a n d age 20 y e a r s l e a v i n g a r e s i d u a l s t o c k i n g o f ca. 330 stems p e r hectare.  1370  2.7x2.7  fes  Yes  Yes  Yes  No  Yes  Yes  No  No  T h r e e t h i n n i n g s a t ages 8,;f5 The c u r r e n t and 22 y e a r s , l e a v i n g r e s i d u a l siivicultural s t o c k s o f c a . 990, 570 ana 300 practice. Used stems p e r h e c t a r e , r e s p e c t i v e l y , h e r e as a c o n t r c L  HARDWOODS ( E u c a l y p t u s II?  grandis  (Hill)  O  Maiden)  308 6  1.8x1.8  Yes  Yes  Thinning  during coppice  crops.  Fulpwocd,building, p o l e s , posts, f u e l w o o d and charcoal.  1800  2.4x2.4  Yes  Yes  Thinning  during coppice  crops  B u i l d i n g ana transmission p o l e s ar.d f e n c e posts. •  —2(T4-  CHAPTER  NOTES  1.  By a h i g h e r and more e f f i c i e n t l e v e l o f management i s meant t h a t : as wood requirements continue t o i n c r e a s e , e f f o r t s t o augment f u t u r e s u p p l i e s o f timber w i l l need to be c o n c e n t r a t e d i n those areas and on those o p p o r t u n i t i e s which promise the g r e a t e s t r e t u r n s from the resources which w i l l be a v a i l a b l e .  2.  A c c o r d i n g t o Plumptre (1972), the u t i l i z a t i o n o f the indigenous high f o r e s t i n t r o p i c a l areas (THFs) poses a number o f p a r t i c u l a r l y i n t r a c t a b l e problems p e c u l i a r to the type o f f o r e s t and l e v e l o f i n d u s t r i a l development o f the c o u n t r i e s i n which i t i s found. T r o p i c a l f o r e s t i s very r i c h i n the v a r i e t y o f both i t s fauna and f l o r a ; the l a r g e number o f t r e e s p e c i e s and consequent c o n c e n t r a t i o n s o f any one s p e c i e s mean t h a t , e i t h e r small q u a n t i t i e s o f a l i m i t e d number o f s p e c i e s are used l e a v i n g the r e s t u n u t i l i z e d , o r a very l a r g e number o f d i f f e r e n t s p e c i e s with w i d e l y d i f f e r e n t p r o p e r t i e s has to be put on the market. Another d e t e r r e n t t o f u l l e r u t i l i z a t i o n i s the l e v e l o f development o f the c o u n t r i e s i n which the m a j o r i t y o f t r o p i c a l f o r e s t o c c u r s , where i n t e r n a l demand f o r timber i s low and communications are poor. But as development has proceeded i n LDCs, t h i s s i t u a t i o n may not be true anymore. In Uganda the p o s i t i o n i s now very d i f f e r e n t s i n c e the n a t u r a l f o r e s t alone i s b a r e l y able to produce s u f f i c i e n t timber, on a s u s t a i n e d y i e l d b a s i s , to supply the timber needs o f the country and timber consumption i s r i s i n g at about 7% per annum. "Conclusions from the (his) study i n d i c a t e t h a t i n Ugandan c o n d i t i o n s i t should be p o s s i b l e t o double the volume o f timber taken per h e c t a r e without reducing the p r o f i t a b i l i t y of s a w m i l l i n g below an a c c e p t a b l e l e v e l " .  3.  A p o s s i b l e escape route may be through trade.  international  -205-  I n a p p r o p r i a t e i s used here to emphasize t h a t f o r e s t r y uses the three primary f a c t o r s of p r o d u c t i o n ( c a p i t a l , land and labour) d i r e c t l y . Therefore i t may not be p o s s i b l e to d e f i n e i n t e n s i t y of f a c t o r usage a c c u r a t e l y . One method o f p r o d u c t i o n i s labour i n t e n s i v e r e l a t i v e to another o n l y i f , f o r a l l sets of r e l a t i v e p r i c e s , i t has a h i g h e r r a t i o both o f labour to c a p i t a l and o f labour t o l a n d . However, i n Uganda, where an ' a r t i f i c i a l s u r p l u s land e x i s t s due to i n e f f i c i e n t p r o d u c t i o n and/or l a c k of economic i n c e n t i v e s i n the a g r o - f o r e s t r y s e c t o r s , c a p i t a l and labour are much more s i g n i f i c a n t and t h e r e f o r e j u s t i f i e s use o f the two-factor model.  1  Grayson e t a i . (1967) d i f f e r e n t i a t e d between type of t h i n n i n g - which r e f e r s to a d e s c r i p t i o n o f the type t r e e s removed i n a t h i n n i n g compared w i t h those l e f t standing; t h i n n i n g weight - the volume removed i n a p a r t i c u l a r t h i n n i n g ; t h i n n i n g i n t e n s i t y - the volume i n one or more t h i n n i n g s d i v i d e d by the number of years between the time o f the f i r s t t h i n n i n g and end of the l a s t t h i n n i n g c y c l e pages 526-527. Tree-stand data should i n c l u d e malformation percentage, m o r t a l i t y r a t e s , stand volume and p i e c e - s i z e p r o j e c t i o n s , changes i n timber q u a l i t y and h y d r o l o g i c a l and ground cover e f f e c t s . The r e l e v a n t u t i l i z a t i o n data include p r i c e - s i z e gradient. Linked economic data should i n c l u d e d i f f e r e n t i a l haul r a t e s , r e t u r n s to s c a l e of u t i l i z a t i o n p l a n t s and economic m u l t i p l i e r e f f e c t s through time. F i n a l l y , l o c a l i n f l u e n c e s which may become dominant i n c l u d e : b i o l o g i c a l , c l i m a t i c and topographic c o n s i d e r a t i o n s The o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t s of t h i n n i n g should i n c l u d e : r e d u c t i o n i n f i n a l crop increment r a t e ; postponement o f cash flows from g r e a t e r volumes of c l e a r f e l l i n g s ; and postponement of l i n k e d u t i l i z a t i o n b e n e f i t s . I t i s a l s o important t h a t p r i c e s o f i n p u t s and outputs should be expressed i n terms o f s o c i a l c o s t s and r e t u r n s , i f f o r e s t s are p u b l i c l y owned. S i t e index r e f e r s to the dominant h e i g h t o f a stand i n metres at age 15. In p u b l i c a t i o n s p r i o r to 1972, an age r e f e r e n c e of 20 years was used. T h i s d e f i n i t i o n r e f e r s to softwoods o n l y . For e u c a l y p t s , an age r e f e r e n c e of 10 years i s used.  -206-  CHAPTER SIX 6.00  DETERMINATION OF OPTIMUM ROTATION LENGTH(S) 6.10  Introduction In evenaged f o r e s t management, a r o t a t i o n , may be  defined  as the planned number of years between the f o r m a t i o n  or g e n e r a t i o n o f a crop and i t s f i n a l f e l l i n g 1952;  Sinden, 1964).  regulatory  Therefore, r o t a t i o n represents a  f a c t o r i n the management o f evenaged  ( F l o r a , 1977). constraints  Whereas s i l v i c u l t u r a l and  determine the p o s s i b l e  technical considerations lower.  (Meyer e t a l . ,  forests  natural  upper l i m i t o f r o t a t i o n ,  r e g a r d i n g p r o c e s s i n g determine the  W i t h i n t h i s upper-lower range, a number o f f a c t o r s ,  mostly economic, determine the a c t u a l r o t a t i o n adopted. Depending upon the prevalence o f , o r the p r e f e r e n c e s g i v e n to some f a c t o r s , r o t a t i o n s may be l a b e l l e d " f i n a n c i a l , physical,  s i l v i c u l t u r a l , or technical"  (Sinden, 1964).  However, i n t h i s t h e s i s , the main concern i s the economics o f growing t r e e s t o merchantable ( u t i l i z a b l e ) size  and the time i t takes to 'do i t .  The time p e r i o d  vary between s p e c i e s and f o r a s i n g l e s p e c i e s . other t h i n g s , thinning,  i t i s influenced  t r e e s are to be grown ( H i l e y , 1967). f o r e s t management  Among  by s i t e q u a l i t y , grade o f  treatments other than t h i n n i n g  in intensive  will  and s i z e t o which  With a keen i n t e r e s t  and an emphasis on p l a n t a t i o n  -207f o r e s t r y , management i s faced w i t h a l t e r n a t i v e courses of action.  There i s need, t h e r e f o r e ,  for evaluation "best"  the  economic  criteria  of these a l t e r n a t i v e s so as to choose  (Massie, 1972) .  mined by  to use  The  investment p e r i o d  the  i s deter-  rotation.  In the c o n t e x t of n a t i o n a l  f o r e s t p o l i c y , the  mate importance of r o t a t i o n ' i s i t s i n f l u e n c e supply p r o j e c t i o n s .  on  ulti-  roundwood  For example, u s i n g an index of  1.0  f o r cumulative softwood y i e l d on a 30 year r o t a t i o n , K i n g ston  (1970) showed t h a t when r o t a t i o n s  were used, t h e i r y i e l d s were 1.33 In p l a n t a t i o n  and  of 25 and 1.52,  20  years  respectively.  f o r e s t r y , as opposed to THFs, so long  as  r e l i a b l e y i e l d data are a v a i l a b l e , d e t e r m i n a t i o n of wood supply i s r e l a t i v e l y easy. out  the optimum r o t a t i o n "  A "major e x e r c i s e (Pakkanen, 1973).  t h i s case, although e a s i e r ,  i s to But  complicate d e t e r m i n a t i o n of Secondly, the  even i n  some management o p t i o n s  as sawlog p r o d u c t i o n as opposed to pulpwood) may  find  (such  somewhat  rotation.  r o t a t i o n adopted w i l l i n f l u e n c e  p r o f i t a b i l i t y of f o r e s t o p e r a t i o n s .  This influence  the i s of  g r e a t s i g n i f i c a n c e to p r i v a t e wood growers, whose i n v e s t ments i n p l a n t a t i o n rotation  means  f o r e s t r y have to pay.  I f a longer  g r e a t e r r e t u r n s to investment,  then  woodlot farmers w i l l adopt i t . Whereas n a t i o n a l wood  supply  may  be  the  greatest  concern  round-  for public  • -208f o r e s t r y , p r i v a t e owners are governed by the p r i n c i p l e o f maximization  of p r o f i t .  A n a t i o n a l f o r e s t agency may  s h o r t e r r o t a t i o n s because these (Johnson  e t al.,  s e r v i c e may  1977) .  may  advocate  l e a d to i n c r e a s e d h a r v e s t s  A l t e r n a t i v e l y , the n a t i o n a l f o r e s t  adhere to suggestions o f " c o n v e n t i o n a l wisdom"  t h a t maximum h a r v e s t s are achieved when r o t a t i o n equals time o f g r e a t e s t mean annual h a r v e s t may  l e a d to r e d u c t i o n i n wood p r i c e s ( F i g h t  Youngday, 1977). it  growth ( F l o r a , 1977).  Depending on how  Increased and  much such an i n c r e a s e i s ,  c o u l d l e a d to r e d u c t i o n s i n producer(s)  by becoming unfavourable  the  surplus, there-  to wood growers unless duly sub-  s i d i z e d by government. •Although  an important  t o o l , the problem o f c h o i c e o f  the optimum o r a t l e a s t a p p r o p r i a t e r o t a t i o n l e n g t h has occupied the minds of f o r e s t economists f o r over a century. -Unfortunately,- they have f a i l e d to agree on the c o r r e c t method to use f o r computing i t (Haley, 1966 ; Pearse,  1967) .  I n c o r r e c t s o l u t i o n s to the r o t a t i o n problem c o u l d be  costly  (Smith and Haley,  an  1964).  The  optimum r o t a t i o n l e n g t h may  importance o f choosing  be summed up as f o l l o w s :  "No o t h e r f a c t o r a f f e c t s the outcome o f f o r e s t management o p e r a t i o n s to the e x t e n t as the l e n g t h o f r o t a t i o n s . For a given i n t e n s i t y o f management i t determines the o p t i m a l l e v e l o f growing stock which must be permanently maintained f o r s u s t a i n e d output, the l e v e l of annual c u t by area as w e l l as volume and value t h e r e o f , the r a t e o f Mean Annual Increment (MAI), the l e v e l of annual investment i n r e f o r e s t a t i o n , and the r a t e o f f i n a n c i a l r e t u r n from the  -209-  investment i n land, growing stock and o t h e r management r e l a t e d a c t i v i t i e s . R o t a t i o n i s thus an important t o o l i n the hands o f f o r e s t e r s f o r r e g u l a t i n g the annual flow of timber, revenue, annual i n vestment i n r e f o r e s t a t i o n and the r a t e o f r e t u r n from t h i s investment". (Rustagi,  1975).  T h i s chapter w i l l attempt to i d e n t i f y the  factors influencing  d e t e r m i n a t i o n of r o t a t i o n l e n g t h i n p l a n t a t i o n f o r e s t r y i n Uganda.  An  appropriate  optimum r o t a t i o n lengths  c r i t e r i o n w i l l be  s e l e c t e d and  the  f o r each of the models formulated  i n the l a s t Chapter assessed.  6.20  Factors A f f e c t i n g Rotation 6.21  Forest  Length  Ownership  In s e v e r a l regions  of the world, ownership o f f o r e s t  land can be d i v i d e d i n t o three broad c a t e g o r i e s : woodlot owner, l a r g e i n d u s t r i a l company and ( K i r k l a n d , 1976) ^ . set of o b j e c t i v e s .  private  p u b l i c ownership  Each ownership c l a s s has  a different  For example, t h a t o f the woodlot owner  may  be to o b t a i n  the g r e a t e s t  r e t u r n on h i s investment i n  the  form of revenue, or fuelwood y i e l d e d at-.rotation time.  The  o b j e c t i v e s of the l a r g e company w i l l , on the o t h e r hand,  conform w i t h the broad p r o c e s s i n g ,  marketing and  p r o f i t aims  o f the company. About 9^7 percent of the t o t a l f o r e s t e s t a t e and :  all  almost  sources of i n d u s t r i a l r o u n d w o o d s u p p l y i n Uganda are p u b l i c l y  owned.  -2id-  Such ownership pre-supposes a wider range. o f management o b j e c t i v e s , some economic and o t h e r s o u t r i g h t s o c i a l or political. fare.  The emphasis  should i d e a l l y be > s o c i e t y ' s wel-  T h e r e f o r e , i n a d d i t i o n to cash flow  a n a l y s i s , other objectives  (profitability)  i n c l u d e economic e f f i c i e n c y  ( s o c i a l c o s t / b e n e f i t a n a l y s i s ) , d i s t r i b u t i o n a l (equity) considerations  and o t h e r i n t a n g i b l e , i n d i r e c t and induced  2 effects . Due to complexity o f management o b j e c t i v e s , a number o f problems are e x p e r i e n c e d i n t h i s type o f ownership.  A major  theme o f the S i x t h World F o r e s t r y Congress h e l d i n 19 66  was  the need to put f o r e s t r y ' s case a t the n a t i o n a l l e v e l .  In  p a r t i c u l a r , f o r e s t e r s i n a number o f c o u n t r i e s  including  Uganda have found themselves faced w i t h the problem o f i n adequate funding.  These f o r e s t e r s b e l i e v e the problem has  been p r e c i p i t a t e d by l a c k o f adequate understanding o f the importance o f f o r e s t r y to n a t i o n a l economies. hand, most Treasury Departments  On the o t h e r  are not too e n t h u s i a s t i c  about committing funds to departments l i k e f o r e s t r y whose revenues are f a r too small Foresters efits  compared t o t h e i r requirements.  argue, without q u a n t i t a t i v e support, t h a t the ben-  from f o r e s t r y f a r exceed the d i r e c t revenues put i n  government c o f f e r s .  The importance o f r e g u l a r  a f f o r e s t a t i o n and p l a n t a t i o n management i s t h a t  funding f o r forecasts  o f roundwood supply are o f t e n based on a n t i c i p a t e d  planting rates.  Over-and  under-planting r e f l e c t  d i f f e r e n t l y on s o c i a l w e l f a r e w i t h r e s p e c t to economic a v a i l a b i l i t y o f wood.  Furthermore,  irregular planting  programmes complicate f o r e s t r e g u l a t i o n .  For example,  i n t h e i r estimate o f roundwood supply i n Uganda, Lockwood C o n s u l t a n t s L t d . , (1973) c a u t i o n e d ,  "  the softwood composition o f p r o j e c t e d supply i s based on the f o l l o w i n g : (1)  t h e r e w i l l be r e p l a n t i n g on e x i s t i n g p l a n t a t i o n s a f t e r they have been c u t ;  (2) . the NORAD P l a n t i n g Scheme w i l l be out on schedule".  FAO  (19 75) showed t h a t d u r i n g both the second and  carried  third  Development Plans o f Uganda, softwood a f f o r e s t a t i o n t a r g e t s were never achieved (Table 4.8).  Furthermore,  the  silvicultural  programme i n THFs s u f f e r e d an even worse setback. reason was I t was  The main  "a shortage o f funds t o implement the programme' . 1  f o r reasons such as the above t h a t the  of adopting B r i t i s h Columbia's  feasibility  Tree Farm L i c e n c e system f o r  softwood p l a n t a t i o n s i n Uganda was  assessed (Moyini,  1976)  and a s i m i l a r study f o r Kenya had been c a r r i e d out by (1962). will  The main advantages  Spears  of such a system to i n d u s t r y  be: 1)  complete i n t e g r a t i o n o f i n d u s t r i a l and management;  forest  2)  long-term s e c u r i t y to p r i v a t e investment i n p l a n t a t i o n s  3)  long-term assurance of raw m a t e r i a l at known p r i c e ;  4)  p r i c e i s r e l a t e d to the p r o d u c t i o n c o s t s o f the f i r m ' s own o r g a n i z a t i o n .  and  -212-  TABLE Progress  In P l a n t i n g Softwoods  i n Uganda  PLAN Year  II  PERIOD  Target  48  (1966-76)  PLAN Actual  III  PERIOD  Year  ha  (-  1  Target  Actual ha-  (-  1966/67  600  538  1971/72  2000  1292  1967/68  600  763  1972/73  2000  1503  1967/69  600  653  1973/74  2000  2427  1969/70  2000  603  1974/75  2000  1473*  1970/71  2000  831  1975/76  2000  1500*  Total  5,800  3,388  *  estimates Source: FAO  (197 5)  10,000  7,195  -213It  i s d o u b t f u l whether i n d i v i d u a l s c o u l d i n i t i a t e  agreements with  the Uganda F o r e s t Department i n the near  f u t u r e , because they l a c k t e c h n i c a l and managerial The  immediate o p p o r t u n i t y  f o r i n d i v i d u a l s may  skills.  be i n r a i s i n g  e u c a l y p t p l a n t a t i o n s f o r fuelwood, c h a r c o a l , p o l e s , and  lease  even pulpwood.  Their production  management i s simpler,  posts  period i s short  and  compared to t h a t f o r softwoods.  D i s t i n c t i o n between the v a r i o u s ownerships i s e s s e n t i a l because among other preferences  t h i n g s , they have d i f f e r e n t  (1) time  (discount r a t e s ) ; (2) d i f f e r e n t meanings  attached  to c o s t s and b e n e f i t s ; (3) d i f f e r e n t responses to r i s k u n c e r t a i n t y ; and  (4) t h e i r a b i l i t y to procure  and  production  inputs also d i f f e r s . 6.22  I n t e r e s t (Discount) The  Rate  f a c t t h a t f o r e s t r y investments have very  gestation periods  i s known to every f o r e s t e r .  long  But  then i t  i s t h i s very l o n g p e r i o d t h a t makes the r a t e o f i n t e r e s t used i n d i s c o u n t i n g o r a n n u a l i z i n g a c a p i t a l i z e d value become very p e r t i n e n t and o f t e n c r i t i c a l Rustagi,  1977).'  ( H i l e y , 1956; Markus, 1967;  More than any other  f a c t o r , the  r a t e can a l t e r the outcome o f an assessment (Helliwell, 1974).  Any  (Rustagi, 1 9 7 7 ) .  emphasizes the s h o r t - r u n  completely  long p r o j e c t can be made to appear  h i g h l y p r o f i t a b l e by merely u s i n g a low discounting  discount  and  r a t e f o r purposes of  A high d i s c o u n t r a t e overi s therefore  "myopic"  (Pigou, 1 9 3 2 ) . There has been a p r o l i f e r a t i o n o f l i t e r a t u r e i n economics and  f o r e s t economics on the optimum d i s c o u n t r a t e t h a t  -214-  should be used i n f o r e s t investments. concensus has been reached.  Several  determining the r a t e and i t should, gion-specific.  Unfortunately,  no  f a c t o r s operate i n t h e r e f o r e , be r e -  Based on p a s t l i t e r a t u r e , a r a t i o n a l e  f o r choosing some r a t e s f o r investments i n f o r e s t r y Uganda w i l l be d i s c u s s e d .  in  One o f the main f a c t o r s i s  ownership o f the f o r e s t e n t e r p r i s e , s i n c e the most e f f i c i e n t r a t e i s one t h a t r e f l e c t s the d e c i s i o n maker's objectives  (Haley,  1969).  S e v e r a l economists have argued t h a t p u b l i c p o l i c y aims a t s o c i a l w e l f a r e s o c i a l , economic The  and i n c o r p o r a t e s  (Manning, 19 77a)  i n v a r i o u s mixes,  and p o l i t i c a l  goals.  p o l i c y d i f f e r s from the p r i v a t e i n d i v i d u a l ' s p r e -  dominantly economic, p r o f i t - m a x i m i z a t i o n o f these two reasons, a lower d i s c o u n t for public projects.  goal.  Because  r a t e should be used  H i r s c h l e i f e r e t a l . (1961) suggested  t h a t the government should  a c t to drive i n t e r e s t rates  down t o equate them w i t h the s o c i a l r a t e .  In t h i s way, a l l  investment d e c i s i o n s whether p u b l i c o r p r i v a t e w i l l be taken on the same b a s i s .  However, t h i s a c t i n v o l v e s essen-  t i a l l y a monetary and f i s c a l p o l i c y t h a t i s c h a r a c t e r i s t i c a l l y short-term  i n nature.  I t may, t h e r e f o r e , not be  appropriate for determining a long-run normative d i s c o u n t  rate  f o r f o r e s t r y investment  Libby  (1976)asserted  ( K r u t i l l a and F i s h e r , 19 75).  t h a t i n public investment, decisions are based on  a r t i f i c a l l y selected s o c i a l rate of discount  that i s  -215c h a r a c t e r i s t i c a l l y lower than the market r a t e . p r o j e c t s w i t h low annual  r e t u r n s on investment  Even become  a c c e p t a b l e i n such a case and the bulk o f investment j e c t s s h i f t e d t o the f u t u r e .  Baumol (196 9)  pro-  suggested the  e x i s t e n c e o f an o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t o f resources t i e d up i n p u b l i c p r o j e c t s where lower d i s c o u n t r a t e s than t h a t o f the market e x i s t .  I t i s equal t o the d i f f e r e n c e i n r e t u r n over  that achievable i n private"investments. c i e n c y o f investment,  effi-  ' p u b l i c p r o j e c t s should have g r e a t e r  a n t i c i p a t e d r e t u r n s than p r i v a t e ' . and F i s h e r (1975),  To m a i n t a i n  According to K r u t i l l a  a g e n e r a l concensus  appears to have  been reached  among economists t h a t a uniform d i s c o u n t r a t e (3) should be a p p l i e d t o a l l investments, p r i v a t e o r p u b l i c .  T h i s w i l l a v o i d r e a l l o c a t i o n o f r e s o u r c e s from h i g h e r t o (4)  lower y i e l d a l t e r n a t i v e s  .  However, there i s l e s s  ment on the q u e s t i o n o f what should determine t h i s much to  l e s s it's' riumericali  value.  agree-  rate,  A possible solution i s  use the market r a t e o f i n t e r e s t and c a r r y o u t s e n s i t i v i t y  a n a l y s i s u s i n g lower and h i g h e r r a t e s . Among f o r e s t e r s i n g e n e r a l , t h e r e i s f i r s t agreement on whether f o r e s t investments counted  at a l l .  who advocate  Secondly,  should be d i s -  even among the f o r e s t economists  i t , there i s disagreement on what c o n s t i t u t e s  the a p p r o p r i a t e d i s c o u n t r a t e . r a t e f o r investments The  the d i s -  Most however, suggest a lower  i n public forestry.  choice o f appropriate discount rate f o r n a t i o n a l  -216f o r e s t s i s much more d i f f i c u l t p r i v a t e owners.  A f o r e s t may  compared to t h a t of present  one  the  group of  utilities  to the i n d i v i d u a l owner, but a d i f f e r e n t group to community at l a r g e  (Gron, 1947) .  the  S p e c i f i c a l l y , the c o s t s  p u b l i c l y owned f o r e s t s have to be weighed a g a i n s t spending i n other  defence.  a d j u s t i n g f o r such f a c t o r s as r i s k and  uncertainty one.  government borrowing from the p u b l i c should  not be  National  can use  which no i n t e r e s t i s p a i d .  Money obtained  i n d i v i d u a l s has  an o p p o r t u n i t y  treated national  from taxes on  through t a x a t i o n cost.  Though i t  i s p o s s i b l e to c a l c u l a t e t h i s c o s t as a r a t e , i t w i l l assumptions made about the nature and  discount of  r a t e o u t r i g h t and  forestry  ations.  and  thereby  Others b e l i e v e  dismiss  financial  t h a t the d i s c o u n t  importance consider-  r a t e should  Manning (1977a) argued t h a t t h i s would be  to r e g a r d i n g if  f o r e s t r y as an end  in itself.  the owner of a f o r e s t i s to pay  percent not)  tax  the n o t i o n of a  keyed or equal to the p h y s i c a l growth r a t e of some forest.  with  (Gane, 1967).  emphasize the s o c i a l downplay  vary  d i s t r i b u t i o n of the  burden among d i f f e r e n t c l a s s e s o f taxpayers There are those f o r e s t e r s who  the  However,  f o r e s t a u t h o r i t i e s draw on the  revenue as a whole and much o f t h i s i s d e r i v e d  o f f i r m s and  education,  A private firm a f t e r  r a t e a t which i t borrows as the a p p r o p r i a t e  t h i s way.  government  s e c t o r s such as communications,  unemployment a s s i s t a n c e and  of  The  be  normal ' 1  equivalent  argument t h a t ,  a r a t e of i n t e r e s t of  on h i s cash c r e d i t w i t h the bank, he cannot  "p"  (should  t o l e r a t e stands where the annual r a t e of volume increment  -217i s l e s s than "p", Aarestrup  'is a f a l l a c y  .5 '• .  (1969) suggested t h a t a r e a l net r a t e o f  i n f o r e s t r y should  be the same as i n other  r a t e o f r e t u r n considered  f a i r or  enterprises.  'normal' f o r a f o r e s t  be equal to the nominal r a t e o f i n t e r e s t l e s s i n f l a t i o n and p l u s o r minus average r e l a t i v e r i s e o f timber. percent  Following  u s u a l l y be  for'Danish  (1974) advocated  n a t u r a l hazards and  (or f a l l )  a discount  rate  in price  r a t e based..on There i .wi 11  t e c h n o l o g i c a l changes.  here t h a t i t should be t h i s r i s k  v  Uncertainty  be assessed s e p a r a t e l y  r i s k s i n v o l v e d i n growing timber.  i t i s suggested  (and t h i s alone) which i s  expressed i n the i n t e r e s t r a t e adopted:. should  should  forestry..  some element of r i s k i n v o l v e d , and  f u t u r e values  The  t h i s procedure, he i d e n t i f i e d a 3 to 4  r e a l i n t e r e s t rate  Helliwell  return  about  from the p h y s i c a l  F i n a l l y , he a s s e r t e d  that,  although f o r e s t r y y i e l d s other b e n e f i t s i n a d d i t i o n to timber, even i f these were q u a n t i f i a b l e , 'they o f t e n seem to be  of  r e l a t i v e l y minor importance". The percent  German f o r e s t e r Pressler, discount  used 3.5,  r a t e s f o r S t a t e , l a r g e and  4.0  and  small  f o r e s t holdings, r e s p e c t i v e l y (Markus, 1967).  4.5  private  In B r i t i s h  Columbian f o r e s t r y i t i s suggested t h a t i n t e r e s t r a t e s range from 5,.percent (Smith, 1976)  to 8 to 10 percent  (McKillop,  Teeguarden (19.76) regarded the lower value c o n s e r v a t i v e ,  1976). and  the upper l i m i t o n l y c o r r e c t i f funds are r a i s e d through s a l e o f bonds to p r i v a t e i n v e s t o r s i n s t e a d of t a x i n g income o f consumers.  -218I t would appear from an examination o f the above l i t e r a t u r e t h a t 10 percent zero the lowest.  was  the maximum r a t e r e p o r t e d  However, most o f the l i t e r a t u r e has  and  been  drawn from MDCs w i t h w e l l developed market economies^ . . In LDCs, there rate  i s a problem of f i r s t d e c i d i n g the  ( s o c i a l or p r i v a t e ) to use. Secondly,  discount  no w e l l developed  market economy e x i s t s and  t h e r e f o r e the p r i v a t e r a t e may  be a true  I t was  ( c o r r e c t ) one.  p a r t l y because of t h i s  Westoby (1962) advocated l e s s s t r i n g e n t f i n a n c i a l 7 in  not that  criteria  the e v a l u a t i o n of investment p r o j e c t s i n LDCs . For example i n P a k i s t a n ,  C h i l d and  Hiromitsu  (1975)  reported  t h a t the c o s t o f borrowing i s an administered  'and may  or may  capital'.  not be r e l a t e d to the r a t e of r e t u r n  on  They argued t h a t , of even more importance, c r e d i t  i s r a t i o n e d and priority.  price  loans not made i n order o f the h i g h e s t  There were cases of f i r m s t h a t obtained  loan funds and  at the  interest rate'.  same time b e n e f i t e d  At the same time, other  r a t e s f o r loans o f l e s s e r amounts.  On  from a  In some LDCs, loans to small below the market i n t e r e s t r a t e s . observed t h a t  substantial 'concessional  firms paid  interest rate.  Scobie and  F r a n k l i n (1977)  ' i n e i g h t L a t i n American c o u n t r i e s , the while  t u t i o n a l loan r a t e s to a g r i c u l t u r e were 11 percent'. i n t e r e s t subsidy  the  farmers are made a t r a t e s  nominal market i n t e r e s t r a t e s were 54 percent  e l a s t i c supply  higher  the other hand,  s m a l l e s t f i r m s c o u l d o b t a i n no c r e d i t a t any  social  average instiSuch an  generates g r e a t e r demand, and w i t h an i n -  o f c a p i t a l , pressure  w i l l mount to  equalize  -219the commercial and  i n s t i t u t i o n a l rates.  T h i s pressure  mani-  f e s t s i t s e l f i n the form o f non-price r a t i o n i n g d e v i c e s as-  nepotism, r a c i a l and  religious discrimination  and  such bureau-  c r a t i c procedures which u l t i m a t e l y r a i s e the t r a n s a c t i o n of a c q u i r i n g the  subsidized loan.  tend to make the farmers averse Myint  lenders  to borrowing.  still  are the ' n o n - i n s t i t u t i o n a l '  In a r e p o r t by the I n t e r n a t i o n a l Monetary Fund  S t a f f Papers November 1957), i t was  observed t h a t i n A f r i c a  these n o n - i n s t i t u t i o n a l l e n d i n g r a t e s are very 24 to 36  high,averaging  percent.  Therefore,  f o r most LDCs, the average maximum-  market i n t e r e s t r a t e r e p o r t e d .is 54 percent. e x i s t s i n the money market;* and stitutional Within  the  such as the v i l l a g e moneylender, the landlojrd o r  shopkeeper. (IMF,  These developments w i l l  (1974) s t a t e d t h a t the main source from which  peasants c o u l d borrow were and  costs  (subsidized)  t h i s upper and  A disequilibrium  o f t e n i s procured at i n -  r a t e s t h a t may  be as low as  lower range, the a p p r o p r i a t e  r a t e f o r f o r e s t r y a c t i v i t i e s i n Uganda/; and  zero.  discount  the reasons f o r  choosing i t , " W i l l be discussed- i n - a l a t e r p a r t of t h i s Chapter.  6.23"  Land, Labour and The  capital. general benefits  Capital  r e a l resources  o f any country are land, labour  These resources scarcity;; and  are economic because o f  and  their  thus c o n s t r a i n the maximization of  ( p r o f i t or s o c i a l w e l f a r e  function) .  .....  net  -220-  In o n l y very few and s t r i c t l y under-populated of LDCs, can l a n d be regarded socio-economic  p o i n t of view.  regions  a f r e e resource from a Even i n some of these  cases,  the l a n d tenure system combined w i t h t r a d i t i o n a l ways o f (8) v a l u e i n g l a n d , o f t e n g i v e i t an u n r e a l i s t i c  value  Furthermore, b e i n g a major f a c t o r of p r o d u c t i o n i n f o r e s t r y , l a n d has a l t e r n a t i v e uses and t h e r e f o r e o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t s . Based on the n a t i o n a l p o p u l a t i o n d e n s i t y , Uganda i s f a i r l y under-populated. f o r expansion  T h e r e f o r e , there i s a v a i l a b l e land  of the f o r e s t e s t a t e .  there are those d i s t r i c t s  On a r e g i o n a l b a s i s ,  ( K i g e z i , Bugisu, West Mengo and  Masaka) t h a t are t r u l y over-populated.  Land i n these  i s a scarce r e s o u r c e , and i n c r e a s e s i n f o r e s t w i l l - o c c u r mainly-by  o p p o r t u n i t i e s f o r expansion  The  represent  of the f o r e s t a r e a .  these o p p o r t u n i t i e s occur i n what may depressed  activities  i n t e n s i f i c a t i o n of management.  s p a r s e l y populated wooded savanna areas  cases  be termed  Fortunately, "economically  r e g i o n s " , because i n terms of a g r i c u l t u r a l  p o t e n t i a l they comprise the marginal e c o l o g i c a l zones 3 and 4. A c q u i s i t i o n of l a n d f o r p l a n t a t i o n f o r e s t r y i s l i k e l y to be easy addition  s i n c e there i s land a v a i l a b l e , and i n  a l l l a n d has been p u b l i c l y owned s i n c e the Land  Ownership Decree of 1975. decree  i s unknown.  However, the permanency of  this  The F o r e s t Department should u t i l i z e  this  -221-  o p p o r t u n i t y to a c q u i r e more l a n d f o r f o r e s t r y w i t h i n the framework o f economic s u i t a b i l i t y .  Based on l a n d use  study,  9  the o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t intended  (or t r a n s f e r earnings)  f o r f o r e s t r y should be c a l c u l a t e d .  of land There might  a r i s e a need to make a t r a d e o f f between l a n d use d e c i s i o n s based on s t r i c t l y economic c r i t e r i a and superior s o c i a l goals or p o l i t i c a l  the d i c t a t e s of  expediency.  U n s k i l l e d l a b o u r i n most LCDs i s not scarce t h e r e f o r e not be regarded  an economic r e s o u r c e .  and Two  should reasons  o f t e n make u n s k i l l e d labour s c a r c e r than i t r e a l l y i s . Firstly,  the establishment  of "minimum wages" i n most o f  these c o u n t r i e s makes wages i n the modern s e c t o r h i g h e r would normally be r e q u i r e d to a t t r a c t l a b o u r .  than  Consequently,  u n s k i l l e d labour becomes scarce and t h i s exaggerates the r e a l c o s t o f i t s use.  Secondly,  the s c a r c i t y of l a b o u r i s  f u r t h e r i n c r e a s e d because p r o d u c t i o n r e q u i r e s the r i g h t between s k i l l e d labour.  (managerial  o r s u p e r v i s o r y ) and  mix  unskilled  Since s k i l l e d labour i s s c a r c e , i t a l s o tends to  make the supply of the u n s k i l l e d In Chapter Two, i n Uganda was  inelastic.  the need f o r and the trend .of  discussed.  employment  Only three percent of the  p o p u l a t i o n or 12 percent o f the a c t i v e p o p u l a t i o n was g a i n f u l employment.  There e x i s t s s u r p l u s labour  i n the r u r a l areas.  The  total in  especially  p o l i c y o f the government i s t h a t ,  whereas p r o v i s i o n of o p p o r t u n i t i e s f o r f u l l employment to a l l c i t i z e n s who  seek i t  and the e l i m i n a t i o n o f i n v o l u n t a r y  -222unemployment i s one o f the u l t i m a t e g o a l s o f  de-  velopment, i t s eventual achievement i s o n l y a  long-term  one. In a l l LDCs, c a p i t a l i s f e l t to be p a r t i c u l a r l y (Meir, 19 76).  By c a p i t a l  i s meant  a l l man-made f a c t o r s of  p r o d u c t i o n or the produced means o f p r o d u c t i o n 1971).  From t h i s d e f i n i t i o n ,  c a p i t a l and>therefore,  forest  i t may  (Leslie,  plantations represent  not be too erroneous to count  the l a n d on which t r e e s are being grown as c a p i t a l . m i z a t i o n of r e t u r n s to c a p i t a l may approximation  scarce  A maxi-  then r e p r e s e n t a good  to the s c a r c i t y of f a c t o r s of p r o d u c t i o n .  p r i c e of c a p i t a l  i s given by the i n t e r e s t  The  r a t e , as d i s c u s s e d  earlier. Although  o p e r a t i o n s i n the f o r e s t  plantations of  Uganda are r e l a t i v e l y l a b o u r - i n t e n s i v e , t h e i r c a p i t a l remains c r u c i a l and a c o n s t r a i n i n g f a c t o r . may  be domestic or f o r e i g n .  The  content  Sources of  role of c a p i t a l  funding  i n the  a l l economic development o f the country w i l l depend on: minimum r a t e of investment; investment;  investment  (fixed capital  Uganda's p r a c t i c a l  formation)  f i n a n c i n g r e c u r r i n g c o s t s which f o l l o w .  hand, investment  in- p r o d u c t i v e c a p i t a l  by the s i z e o f the domestic market and markets.  Increaes,  of f i x e d  consistent  l e v e l of  in social services i s  governed by government's f i n a n c i a l p o s i t i o n and of  the  the p r a c t i c a l maximum r a t e o f  and/or the h i g h e s t r a t e o f investment  with a b s o r p t i v e capacity"*"^.  over-  the problem  On the  other  formation i s l i m i t e d slow growth of  investment  of 8.4  and  export 6.5  -22 3-  percent per annum i n the modern and sidered  achievable.  s u b s i s t e n c e sectors/^ are con-  But then the amount of such  investment  t h a t i s e f f i c i e n t and p h y s i c a l l y p o s s i b l e w i l l be governed by the extent o f n a t u r a l r e s o u r c e s , taxes, the labour the l e v e l of labour, t e c h n i c a l and managerial  supply,  skills,  en-  t r e p r e n e u r i a l c a p a c i t y , e f f i c i e n c y o f p u b l i c administration,,, and the extent o f technology-mindedness o f the p o p u l a t i o n (Meir, 1976).  These f a c t o r s determine a b s o r p t i v e c a p a c i t y .  As an LDC, separated  Uganda's domestic money markets may  i n t o organized and  unorganized  ones.  The  be organized  money market i s t h a t of the f i n a n c i a l i n s t i t u t i o n s s i m i l a r to t h a t i n MDCs. i s the unorganized  very  However, the l a r g e s t money market  one.  S u p p l i e r s o f c r e d i t i n the  organized money market c o n s i s t o f a few  un-  financial"institutions  such as c o - o p e r a t i v e s , government sponsored a g r i c u l t u r a l banks, p r o f e s s i o n a l moneylenders, l a r g e t r a d e r s , shopkeepers, r e l a t i v e s and  friends.  The  (such as by Co-operatives  i n t e r e s t r a t e s range from  low  and Uganda Development Bank) to  the'very high and e x h o r b i t a n t r a t e s charged by moneylenders. A c h a r a c t e r i s t i c average r a t e between 24 and c o n s i d e r e d normal f o r most LDCs.  36 p e r c e n t i s  T h i s source o f funding i s  not s u i t a b l e f o r f i n a n c i n g f o r e s t r y p r o j e c t s unless out through Co-operatives  o r the Uganda Development Bank  at s u b s i d i z e d i n t e r e s t r a t e s . s i m i l a r to t h a t granted  carried  S u b s i d i e s and c r e d i t  to a g r i c u l t u r a l farmers  made a v a i l a b l e to those who  facilities  c o u l d be  want to e s t a b l i s h woodlot farms.  I t s success w i l l depend on the e f f i c i e n c y w i t h which such  -224c r e d i t s can be administered c o n s i d e r i n g t h a t demand f o r funds far  exceeds the  supply.  Domestic sources o f f i n a n c e f o r f o r e s t e s t a b l i s h m e n t are mostly through the d e s i r a b l e growth r a t e of domestic  plantation  Government.  A  savings f o r Uganda i s  estimated to be over 6 percent per annum, and t h i s i s the major source o f investment may  funds.  Government expenditure  be separated i n t o development  (non-recurrent) and r e -  current expenditures.  Sources of f i n a n c e f o r f o r e s t p l a n t -  ations appropriately f a l l In  under development e x p e n d i t u r e .  Uganda, the two major c o n s t r a i n t s to t h i s type o f ex-  p e n d i t u r e are  (1)  the a v a i l a b i l i t y o f n o n - i n f l a t i o n a r y  f i n a n c i a l sources; and  (2)  the a d m i n i s t r a t i v e and  c a p a c i t y f o r d e s i g n i n g and inplementing p r o j e c t s .  managerial The  a v a i l a b i l i t y o f funds f o r f o r e s t r y w i l l depend on the p o s i t i o n the s e c t o r o c c u p i e s on the p r i o r i t i e s l i s t w i t h i n the "bank"--'1  of  projects.  With an i l l - d e f i n e d  standable, t h a t up to now To ensure  f o r e s t p o l i c y i t i s under-  f o r e s t r y has o c c u p i e d a low  priority.  funding, remedial a c t i o n should be taken to develop  improved p o l i c y . If  the importance  stood, domestic borrowing through  o f f o r e s t r y development i s w e l l under-  sources o f funding w i l l be o b t a i n e d by  on medium and long-term bases from the p u b l i c  i s s u e o f bonds  by the  Bank o f Uganda.  So l o n g as  government r e c u r r e n t revenue grows f a s t enough to f i n a n c e all  r e c u r r e n t expenditure, the s u r p l u s can a l s o be c h a n n e l l e d  an  i n t o development expenditure. significant  source o f i n v e s t i b l e f i n a n c e , t h i s w i l l have an  important b e a r i n g Over 90 percent this  Should revenue become a  on tax s t r u c t u r e and  taxation  policies.  o f t o t a l Government revenue accrues from  source. F i n a l l y , there i s e x t e r n a l funding.  There has been a  p r o l i f e r a t i o n of l i t e r a t u r e on the advantages and advantages o f e x t e r n a l a i d , grants  and  However, what i s u l t i m a t e l y t r u e i s  dis-  f o r e i g n investment.  t h a t i n LDCs/ domestic  s u p p l i e s o f investment funds are g e n e r a l l y s e v e r e l y Therefore,  use must be made of e x t e r n a l f i n a n c e  Smith, 1976). questions  But  i n so doing, a number of  need to be  limited.  (Haley  and  pertinent  answered.  "Does the r e c e i p t o f a i d sap e n t e r p r i s e and s e l f - r e l i a n c e , fostering instead a s p i r i t of dependence? Does i t favour the towns and the r i c h as a g a i n s t the countryside:' and the poor? Does i t encourage an unreasonable expansion o f the bureaucracy? Does i t l e a d to ways o f doing t h i n g s which are inapprop r i a t e f o r the country and impossible to sustain? Are waste and c o r r u p t i o n i t s usual concomitants?" (Wood; i n Morton, 1975).  Government p o l i c y towards e x t e r n a l borrowing and grants  i s t h a t these should be assessed on the b a s i s o f  p o l i c i e s of major l e n d e r s there  to Uganda.  I t i s recognized  likely that  i s a danger o f r e l y i n g too much on e x t e r n a l f i n a n c e both  f o r p o l i t i c a l and supply  external  economic reasons.  Furthermore, the  total  o f investment f i n a n c e to Uganda has been stagnant f o r  -226-  s e v e r a l years and  i n a d d i t i o n , there i s no c e r t a i n t y about  the amounts, terms'; o r t i m i n g of such f i n a n c e .  There  d i f f i c u l t i e s associated with u t i l i z a t i o n of external  are finance.  These funds are u s u a l l y l i m i t e d to- p a r t i c u l a r p r o j e c t s which s a t i s f y the c r i t e r i a s e t by the lender,,  and  include a r e -  12 quired proportion  of import content  n e c e s s i t a t e a matching c o n t r i b u t i o n  and  generally  ( l o c a l costs)  by  government. The finance  Government o f Uganda welcomes o f f i c i a l  external  so long as i t i s o f f e r e d f o r p r i o r i t y p r o j e c t s  s e c t o r s on terms and satisfactory,  and  and  c o n d i t i o n s which the government f i n d s  i n the s p i r i t o f t r u e  partnership.  A p a r t from government-to-government a i d , a number o f i n t e r n a t i o n a l or r e g i o n a l agencies p r o v i d e of investment,finance.  possible  sources  These i n c l u d e the World. Bank  i t s s i s t e r companies IDA  and  IFC, A f r i c a n Development Bank,  Arab Bank f o r Economic Development i n A f r i c a Arab Development Fund (ADF).  and  (ABEDA) and  the  For example, ABEDA gives  loans o f an average d u r a t i o n o f 2 5 years at i n t e r e s t r a t e s between 2 and ADF  6 percent  gives loans  Long-term loans  for p a r t i c u l a r p r o j e c t s , while  at zero i n t e r e s t f o r 40 years at low  (Ceres,  i n t e r e s t r a t e s should be  suitable for forest plantations.  1976).  particularly  However, unless  i t can be  proved t h a t an i n t e r e s t - f r e e loan cannot be b e t t e r used i n another s e c t o r than f o r e s t r y , i t u l t i m a t e l y c a r r i e s w i t h i t  -22 7-  an o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t .  What t h i s means then i s  that^a  ;  thorough s o c i a l c o s t - b e n e f i t a n a l y s i s should be  prepared  b e f o r e going to the i n t e r n a t i o n a l money market t o borrow funds  f o r a given p r o j e c t .  p r o j e c t s i s what ADF  In f a c t the l a c k of w e l l  officials  give as a reason  havinq advanced s u b s t a n t i a l funds  planned  f o r not  to A f r i c a n c o u n t r i e s .  Since i n Uganda a great emphasis has been p l a c e d on the r o l e of p u b l i c c o r p o r a t i o n s i n economic development, t h e i r sources o f investment  funds are. worth  mentioning.  These c o r p o r a t i o n s ( i n c l u d i n g Uganda Development C o r p o r a t i o n Uganda E l e c t r i c i t y Board, Uganda Cement C o r p o r a t i o n , Wood I n d u s t r i e s C o r p o r a t i o n , N a t i o n a l Insurance  Corporation,  Uganda Commercial Bank) f i n a n c e t h e i r investments a v a r i e t y of sources. Secondly,  Some money i s generated  from  internally.  government i s o f t e n the s o l e major s h a r e h o l d e r  and c r e d i t o r o f some magnitude-; and advances funds to these Corporations.  F i n a l l y , the C o r p o r a t i o n s may  borrow e i t h e r  d i r e c t l y on the l o c a l o r g a n i z e d money market o r from e x t e r n a l sources.  The  same r u l e s apply to the C o r p o r a t i o n s  as to government, but i n a d d i t i o n , the l a t t e r may a guarantor.  These C o r p o r a t i o n s  by the c r i t e r i o n t h a t each should b a s i s and earn a reasonable c a p i t a l employed  a c t as  b e i n g companies governed operate on a commercial  r a t e of r e t u r n on  , . have'... an o p p o r t u n i t y  total  to go' i n t o manage-  ment c o n t r a c t s o r j o i n t - v e n t u r e s w i t h e x t e r n a l p r i v a t e f i n a n  -228Such ventures w i t h r e l e v a n t m u l t i n a t i o n a l c o r p o r a t i o n s  are  conceivable. Therefore,  i n summary, sources o f f i n a n c e f o r woodlot  farms c o u l d be r a i s e d from the Uganda Development Bank o r s p e c i a l l y i n s t i t u t e d government c r e d i t schemes s i m i l a r to those f o r a g r i c u l t u r e .  A l t e r n a t i v e l y , fuelwood, p o l e s  and  posts p l a n t a t i o n s c o u l d be e s t a b l i s h e d by the Uganda F o r e s t Department w i t h penditure  funds from the government development  budget.  Financing of i n d u s t r i a l  plantations  should i d e a l l y be undertaken by government, p u b l i c t i o n s , e x t e r n a l agencies,  ex-  corpora-  or combinations of these.  should t r y as much as p o s s i b l e to secure  Uganda  e x t e r n a l sources o f  f i n a n c e f o r r u r a l development-oriented p r o j e c t s l i k e a f f o r e s tation.  Current  t h i n k i n g of i n t e r n a t i o n a l or r e g i o n a l  agencies l i k e the World Bank, ADF, However, a w e l l forumlated  6.2 4  Risk and  ABEDA and FAO  supports t h i s .  project i s a prerequisite.  Uncertainty  I f the f u t u r e outcome o f any  management a c t i v i t y were  known f o r sure, then we would be d e a l i n g with c e r t a i n t y . But t h i s i s h a r d l y the case i n f o r e s t management, where c e r t a i n t y i s an i n h e r e n t  f a c t o r " (Thompson, 1966) .  authors e x p l i c i t l y (Dasgupta e t a l . , 1972; 1974)  heading and volving risk  d i s c u s s them c o l l e c t i v e l y . occurs  Some  Weston and  o r i m p l i c i t l y combine " u n c e r t a i n t y " and  f,  risk  "un-  ft  Bringham, under  one  D e c i s i o n making i n -  where f u t u r e outcomes are a f u n c t i o n of  -22 9established s t a t i s t i c a l probabilities.  A solution i s  c e r t a i n where the p r o b a b i l i t y o f occurence  un-  cannot be  es-  t a b l i s h e d i n a q u a n t i t a t i v e manner. Uncertainty  influences r o t a t i o n with respect  assumptions made about revenues and any  p r o j e c t , there i s bound to be  f u t u r e stream o f b e n e f i t s and t a s t e s , d i s c o v e r i e s o f new g i c a l innovations f a c t o r s may  costs.  In  to  evaluating  some u n c e r t a i n t y about  the  c o s t s i n c l u d i n g changes i n  sources o f supply,  (Mishan, 1976) .  and  technolo-  A c t i n g over time, these  lower o r r a i s e the p r i c e ( s ) of outputs o r  inputs.  In most t r a d i t i o n a l f o r e s t economics a n a l y s i s o f  the  r o t a t i o n problem, i t i s assumed t h a t timber products output by q u a n t i t y and known.  quality  and  the p r i c e s o f these o u t p u t s , a r e  Secondly, i t i s assumed t h a t c o s t s  (or i n p u t  are known at the time an investment i s made and will  remain constant  over time.  technology o f p r o c e s s i n g change a c c o r d i n g  assumed.  t h a t these  t h i r d assumption i s t h a t  w i l l not change i n the  to an assumed t r e n d .  assumed t h a t the d i s c o u n t i s known.  The  prices)  Fourthly,  r a t e a p p l i c a b l e to the  future or  will  i t is investment  F i n a l l y , a p e r f e c t knowledge about wood output i s None o f these assumptions i s e n t i r e l y c o r r e c t .  (1964) suggested t h a t i f c e r t a i n assumptions are p l a u s i b l e and  indeed  i f d e c i s i o n s are between f o r e s t investments  whose r e t u r n s are c e r t a i n t y can be Current  Flora  about e q u a l l y d i s t a n t i n time, then  un-  ignored.  p r a c t i c e s of d e a l i n g w i t h u n c e r t a i n t y  include:  cut-off period,  -230an a r b i t r a r y a d d i t i o n of a premium to  otherwise a p p r o p r i a t e  r a t e of d i s c o u n t ,  f u t u r e output p r i c e s and i n p u t p r i c e s , and (Mishan, 1976) upper and  downward r e v i s i o n of  upward adjustment of expected  future  i n t r o d u c t i o n of a " s u b j e c t i v e p r o b a b i l i t y "  o f t e n i n v o l v i n g a s e n s i t i v i t y a n a l y s i s of  lower e s t i m a t e s .  A c e n t r a l argument adopted i n t h i s t h e s i s w i t h to u n c e r t a i n t y and  the  respect  is, that^since u n c e r t a i n t i e s a f f e c t i n g input  output p r i c e s , technology of p r o c e s s i n g  and  consumer t a s t e s  seem about equal f o r the f i v e softwood models, a "best of outcomes i s a p p r o p r i a t e  ( F l o r a , 1964).  It is  t h a t those u n c e r t a i n t i e s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h n a t u r a l s u s c e p t i b i l i t y ) } , and  b i o l o g i c a l ( i n s e c t and  guess"  recognized (wind,  fire  disease) hazards  w i l l v a r y somewhat among the management models proposed i n Chapter F i v e .  These might, t h e r e f o r e ,  i n s l i g h t l y d i f f e r e n t magnitudes.  i n f l u e n c e product output  However, w i t h  intensive  management of f o r e s t p l a n t a t i o n s , the d i s p a r i t i e s i n t i e s w i l l be reduced and type of u n c e r t a i n t y  : 'may- \ be  can be  ignored.  uncertain-  If required,  taken care of by determining r o t a t i o n  l e n g t h f o r a range of s i t e i n d i c e s .  Since we  concerned w i t h i d e n t i f i c a t i o n of the o p t i m a l  are  primarily  product-oriented  management model(s), i t w i l l not be necessary to c a r r y this exercise. Two  An  out  average s i t e index i s used throughout.  assumptions of output p r i c e s are c o n s i d e r e d  analysis.  The  f i r s t i s where r o y a l t y r a t e s w i l l be  regardless  of t r e e s i z e (,U.shs 17.50  as t h i s p r i c i n g may  this  be  per  in this constant  c u b i c metre).  s u i t a b l e f o r products such as  Where-  fuelwood  -231and pulpwood, i t i s not a p p r o p r i a t e f o r veneer  and  sawlogs.  Values r e a l i z a b l e f o r these products should be. more s e n s i t i v e to s i z e .  In a d d i t i o n , c u l t u r a l p r a c t i c e s such as pruning are  c a r r i e d out w i t h the purpose of improving q u a l i t y of the product d e s i r e d .  T h e r e f o r e , to take i n t o account  these  factors  of consumer t a s t e , a p r i c e - s i z e g r a d i e n t and a premium f o r q u a l i t y should be used.  With no data a v a i l a b l e f o r premium,  the v a r i a t i o n of r o y a l t y r a t e with mean stand diameter breast h e i g h t (dbh)  was  taken as an approximation.  r a t e s based on these two An average  at  Royalty  assumptions are shown i n F i g u r e  range of stand e s t a b l i s h m e n t and management  c o s t s f o r the c u r r e n t s i l v i c u l t u r a l p r a c t i c e s i n p l a n t a t i o n s i s shown i n Appendix V  .  softwood  Based on these data,  estimates of management c o s t s f o r models IA, IB, IC, ID IE are shown i n Table 6.30  14.  and  49.  Rotation C r i t e r i a Having  d i s c u s s e d the importance  o f , and some f a c t o r s  a f f e c t i n g r o t a t i o n l e n g t h , i t i s r e c o g n i z e d t h a t , the o b j e c t i v e of c a r r y i n g out f o r e s t o p e r a t i o n s i s maximization return.  I t may  o f some  be measured i n terms o f p h y s i c a l volume output,  p r o f i t or s o c i a l w e l f a r e .  T h e r e f o r e , the choice of an  a p p r o p r i a t e c r i t e r i o n f o r determining the optimum r o t a t i o n length i s very e s s e n t i a l .  In f o r e s t r y l i t e r a t u r e ,  these  models i n c l u d e : the age of c u l m i n a t i o n of mean annual  increment,  -2-32-  03 Glearfell Thinning  Fig.  1,4.  V a r i a t i o n of R o y a l t y Rate with Stand Source:  Grut  (1977)  DBH  TABLE 4 9 Cost Estimates  Operation  f o r t h e F i v e I n t e n s i v e Management Models*  Year  M (JA  I n i t i a l land cleaning Ground p r e p a r a t i o n Nursery Planting Weeding 1st 2nd 3rd 4 th 5th  /  0:  D  "E  L  S  "Us/ha- - 1  — ™)  0  :  . -2 -1 -2 0  100 125 241 141  100 125 241 141  100 . 125 197 116  100 125 99 58  100 125 150 88  1 2 3 4 5  75 75  75 75 50  -  75 75 50 25  -  75 75 50 25 10  75 75 ' 50 25  88 88 100  88 88 100  88 88 100 125  88 88  60 40  60 40  60 40  -  -  Pruning 1st 2nd 3rd 4th  6 8 11 14  Annual maintenance c o s t s Administration Annual Protection Annual  88  -  60 40  -  -  * based on c o s t f i g u r e s by K i n g s t o n (1970) and a l s o r e p o r t e d i n Lockwood C o n s u l t a n t s L t d . (1971) and shown i n Appendix VI  -  60 40  -2 34maximum volume p r o d u c t i o n , z e r o - i n t e r e s t f i n a n c i a l models and net p r e s e n t v a l u e s . Of