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Planning timber supply from the forests of Peninsular Malaysai Hadi, Yusuf bin 1982

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PLANNING TIMBER SUPPLY FROM THE FORESTS OF PENINSULAR MALAYSIA by YUSUF BIN (JjlADI B.S., U n i v e r s i t y Of H a w a i i , 1973 M.F.S., Y a l e U n i v e r s i t y , 1975 A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY i n THE FACULTY OF GRADUATE STUDIES Department Of F o r e s t r y We a c c e p t t h i s t h e s i s as c o n f o r m i n g t o the r e q u i r e d s t a n d a r d THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA October 1982 © Yusuf B i n H a d i , 1982 In p r e s e n t i n g t h i s t h e s i s i n p a r t i a l f u l f i l m e n t of the re q u i r e m e n t s f o r an advanced degree a t the U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h C o l umbia, I agree t h a t the L i b r a r y s h a l l make i t f r e e l y a v a i l a b l e f o r r e f e r e n c e and s t u d y . I f u r t h e r agree t h a t p e r m i s s i o n f o r e x t e n s i v e c o p y i n g of t h i s t h e s i s f o r s c h o l a r l y purposes may be g r a n t e d by the Head of my Department or by ; h i s or her r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s . I t i s un d e r s t o o d t h a t c o p y i n g or p u b l i c a t i o n of t h i s t h e s i s f o r f i n a n c i a l g a i n s h a l l not be a l l o w e d w i t h o u t my w r i t t e n p e r m i s s i o n . Department of F o r e s t r y The U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h Columbia 2075 Wesbrook P l a c e Vancouver, Canada V6T 1W5 Date: Ji AfoiS^r^J**-ABSTRACT S u p e r v i s o r s : Dr. J.H.G. Smith and Dr. D.H. W i l l i a m s S i n c e 1957, growth of f o r e s t r y and f o r e s t i n d u s t r i e s i n P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a has been r a p i d and u n c o o r d i n a t e d . Annual t i m b e r p r o d u c t i o n from the permanent f o r e s t e s t a t e and f o r e s t s d e s i g n a t e d f o r a g r i c u l t u r e i n c r e a s e d s i x t i m e s t o 11.6 m i l l i o n m3 i n 1979. Lumber and plywood m i l l c a p a c i t y expanded seven t i m e s to'10.1 m i l l i o n m3. P r e v i o u s e s t i m a t e s of the a n n u a l l y a v a i l a b l e t i m b e r s u p p l y have ranged from 4.5 t o 17.0 m i l l i o n m3. T h i s t h e s i s p r e s e n t s improved methods of p l a n n i n g t i m b e r s u p p l y f o r P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a which s h o u l d remedy the t h r e e major s h o r t c o m i n g s i n p r e v i o u s a n a l y s e s and the c u r r e n t p l a n n i n g system. The improved methods c o n s i d e r , f o r the f i r s t t i m e , the f u l l range of t i m b e r u t i l i z a t i o n and f o r e s t management p o s s i b i l i t i e s f o r P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a , and d e s c r i b e a d d i t i o n a l p o t e n t i a l s o u r c e s of wood. In a d d i t i o n , the a n a l y s i s of t i m b e r s u p p l y s t a t e by s t a t e c o u l d i n v o l v e the h i t h e r t o n e g l e c t e d s t a t e governments which own and manage the f o r e s t s w i t h i n t h e i r t e r r i t o r i e s . L i n e a r programming (Timber RAM) i s used t o o p t i m i z e t i m b e r s u p p l y , as a s u p e r i o r a l t e r n a t i v e t o the t r a d i t i o n a l a r e a c o n t r o l . Ten s c e n a r i o s f o r t i m b e r u t i l i z a t i o n and f o r e s t management ar e c o n s i d e r e d f o r P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a . Only one s c e n a r i o , r e p r e s e n t i n g modest improvement i n l o g g i n g and e x t e n s i v e management of the i n d i g e n o u s f o r e s t s , i s a n a l y s e d s t a t e by s t a t e because of i n s u f f i c i e n t d a t a . The p o t e n t i a l f o r expanded h a r v e s t s i s s u b s t a n t i a l . However, the magnitude of f u t u r e h a r v e s t s i s d i f f i c u l t t o d e f i n e because responses of t r e e s t o v a r i o u s s i l v i c u l t u r a l t r e a t m e n t s and the e v e n t u a l e x t e n t of the p r o d u c t i v e f o r e s t s and p r i o r i t i e s l i k e l y t o be a s s i g n e d t o t i m b e r management a r e not now f u l l y u n d e r s t o o d . F u t u r e a n n u a l t i m b e r h a r v e s t s c o u l d be i n c r e a s e d up t o 73.3 m i l l i o n m3, seven t i m e s the c u r r e n t h a r v e s t , i f a l l p r o d u c t i v e i n d i g e n o u s f o r e s t s were c o n v e r t e d t o p l a n t a t i o n s of f a s t - g r o w i n g s p e c i e s . I n c r e a s e s c o u l d a l s o r e s u l t from improved methods of l o g g i n g , use of s m a l l e r t r e e s and more s p e c i e s , i n t e n s i f i c a t i o n of management, and b e t t e r u t i l i z a t i o n of rubberwood, o i l palm, mangroves, and f o r e s t and m i l l r e s i d u e s . On the o t h e r hand, major t i m b e r s h o r t a g e s a r e l i k e l y t o occur i f c u r r e n t w a s t e f u l l o g g i n g and inadequate management c o n t i n u e . H a r v e s t s c o u l d be reduced 70 p e r c e n t . The n o r t h - e a s t e r n s t a t e s (Perak, K e l a n t a n , Trengganu and Pahang) w i l l c o n t i n u e t o s u p p l y more than 70 p e r c e n t of t o t a l t i m b e r p r o d u c t i o n . Any i n c r e a s e i n h a r v e s t from improved t i m b e r u t i l i z a t i o n and f o r e s t management w i l l o c cur m a i n l y i n these s t a t e s . Growth of f o r e s t i n d u s t r i e s , which has s t a r t e d ' i n the s e s t a t e s , w i l l c o n t i n u e and a c c e l e r a t e . In c o n t r a s t , the s o u t h -w e s t e r n s t a t e s a r e e x p e r i e n c i n g a tim b e r s h o r t a g e , and s h o u l d s h i f t t o f u r t h e r p r o c e s s i n g of timber t o u t i l i z e e x i s t i n g i n f r a s t r u c t u r e and a v a i l a b l e manpower. The recommended p l a n n i n g methods c o u l d form the c o r e of a c o m p u t e r - a s s i s t e d f o r e s t p l a n n i n g system f o r P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a . i v The a b i l i t y of l i n e a r programming t o h e l p d e f i n e a l t e r n a t i v e s , t o o p t i m i z e , and t o c a r r y out e f f i c i e n t , e f f e c t i v e , and r e p r o d u c i b l e t i m b e r s u p p l y c a l c u l a t i o n s s h o u l d a s s i s t p l a n n e r s . S u b s t a n t i a l e f f o r t s h o u l d be devoted by M a l a y s i a n p l a n n e r s and managers t o s e c u r e the a d d i t i o n a l i n f o r m a t i o n needed t o make the p l a n n i n g system even more h e l p f u l i n the f u t u r e . The g e n e r a l approach d e s c r i b e d here c o u l d be used i n t e r a c t i v e l y now by the f e d e r a l and s t a t e f o r e s t r y departments t o q u a n t i f y d e s i r a b l e changes i n t i m b e r s u p p l y and t o d e f i n e i m p l i c a t i o n s of v a r i o u s i n p u t s and p o l i c i e s . B e f o r e l o c a l a p p l i c a t i o n the r e s u l t s s h o u l d i n c o r p o r a t e improved d a t a and any changes needed i n assumptions r e g a r d i n g the b i o l o g i c a l , p h y s i c a l , socio-economic and p o l i t i c a l f a c t o r s then p r e v a i l i n g i n M a l a y s i a . The t e c h n i q u e s used f o r d a t a p r o c e s s i n g and a n a l y s i s s h o u l d employ the b e s t t e c h n o l o g y a v a i l a b l e i n the c o u n t r y . V TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT . . i i TABLE OF CONTENTS v LIST OF TABLES v i i i LIST OF FIGURES x i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS x i i 1. I n t r o d u c t i o n 1 1 . 1 The Problem 1 1 . 2 O b j e c t i v e 5 1 . 3 O r g a n i z a t i o n of the T h e s i s 8 2. F o r e s t r y and F o r e s t I n d u s t r y i n P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a .... 10 2. 1 G e n e r a l Background 10 2. 2 The F o r e s t s 17 2.2.1 F o r e s t C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s 17 2.2.2 A d m i n i s t r a t i v e C a t e g o r i e s 20 2. 3 F o r e s t Management 24 2.3.1 The A d m i n i s t r a t i v e S e t t i n g 24 2.3.2 F o r e s t Management Systems 26 2. 4 F o r e s t I n d u s t r i e s 31 2.4.1 L o g g i n g and Log T r a n s p o r t a t i o n 31 2.4.2 The S a w m i l l i n g I n d u s t r y 32 2.4.3 The Plywood and Veneer I n d u s t r y 37 2.4.4 Other F o r e s t I n d u s t r i e s 39 2. 5 Importance of the F o r e s t r y and F o r e s t I n d u s t r i e s S e c t o r 42 2. 6 Summary 50 3. Timber S u p p l y : Past Trends and F o r e c a s t s of F u t u r e L e v e l s 52 3. 1 Pa s t Trends i n Log P r o d u c t i o n and Consumption 52 3.1.1 Trends i n Log P r o d u c t i o n 52 3.1.2 Sources of Timber 54 3.1.3 Log Consumption 60 3. 2 Review of P r e v i o u s A n a l y s e s of Timber Supply from the F o r e s t s of P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a 62 3.2.1 F o r e c a s t s of F u t u r e Log Flow Schedules 64 3.2.2 S y n t h e s i s of the V a r i o u s F o r e c a s t s 69 3. 3 Summary 76 4. D e s i r a b l e F e a t u r e s of a Timber Management P l a n n i n g Method 78 4. 1 D e s i r a b l e F e a t u r e s 78 4.1.1 C a p a b i l i t y of A c c e p t i n g R e l e v a n t Data 79 4.1.2 Temporal and S p a t i a l Dimensions 80 4.1.3 E f f e c t i v e , E f f i c i e n t and R e p r o d u c i b l e A n a l y s e s . 82 v i 4.1.4 U s e f u l Format of P l a n n i n g Outputs 84 4.1.5 L i n k a g e w i t h M u l t i p l e - u s e P l a n n i n g Method 85 4. 2 E v a l u a t i o n of the Methods Used i n P r e v i o u s Timber Supply A n a l y s e s 86 4.2.1 C o n s i d e r a t i o n of B i o l o g i c a l , Economic and P o l i t i c a l / A d m i n i s t r a t i v e F a c t o r s 87 4.2.2 H a n d l i n g of S p a t i a l and Temporal Dimensions .... 91 4.2.3 The P l a n n i n g T o o l s 92 4.2.4 Summary of Major L i m i t a t i o n s 94 4. 3 The Recommended Methods of P l a n n i n g 94 5. Timber Resource A l l o c a t i o n Method (Timber RAM) 97 5. 1 Timber RAM Package 97 5. 2 P l a n n i n g w i t h Timber RAM 98 5.2.1 M a t r i x G e n e r a t i o n 98 5.2.2 S o l v i n g the L i n e a r Programming Problem 104 5.2.3 Report W r i t i n g 104 5. 3 The Advantages of U s i n g Timber RAM 105 5. 4 L i m i t a t i o n s of Timber RAM 107 5.4.1 L i m i t a t i o n s I n h e r e n t i n L i n e a r Programming Technique 108 5.4.2 L i m i t a t i o n s B u i l t i n t o Timber RAM 109 6. A p p l i c a t i o n of Timber RAM t o P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a 115 6. 1 Some P o s s i b l e F u t u r e Management S i t u a t i o n s 115 6.1.1 S c e n a r i o 1: B a s i c S c e n a r i o 116 6.1.2 S c e n a r i o 2: U t i l i z a t i o n of S m a l l e r Logs 117 6.1.3 S c e n a r i o 3: I n c r e a s e d P r o p o r t i o n of M a r k e t a b l e S p e c i e s i n Subsequent Crops 119 6.1.4 S c e n a r i o s 4.1 and 4.2: A n y - s p e c i e s U t i l i z a t i o n . 125 6.1.5 S c e n a r i o 5: I n t e n s i v e F o r e s t Management 132 6.1.6 S c e n a r i o 6: C o n t i n u a t i o n of the C u r r e n t F o r e s t r y P r a c t i c e 134 6.1.7 S c e n a r i o s 7.1 and 7.2: A d a p t a t i o n of t h e FDPM P l a n 134 6. 2 Data 136 6.2.1 F o r e s t Area 136 6.2.2 Timber Y i e l d 140 6.2.3 Management P o l i c y I n f o r m a t i o n 157 6. 3 Summary 165 7. P o s s i b l e Timber Supply S i t u a t i o n s f o r P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a 167 7. 1 Log Flow Schedules 167 7.1.1 B a s i c S c e n a r i o 170 7.1.2 P o s s i b l e I n c r e a s e s i n H a r v e s t s 174 7.1.3 Timber Flow R e s u l t i n g from Assumptions of more Modest Timber Y i e l d 180 7. 2 The E f f e c t s of D i s c o u n t Rates 182 7. 3 Nature of H a r v e s t 183 7. 4 Revenues and C o s t s 185 7.4.1 Revenues 185 7.4.2 C o s t s of S i l v i c u l t u r a l O p e r a t i o n s 186 7. 5 D i s c u s s i o n 190 7.5.1 F a c t o r s A f f e c t i n g F u t u r e H a r v e s t L e v e l s 190 7.5.2 Comparison Between Log P r o d u c t i o n and v i i Consumption 199 7.5.3 Comparison w i t h R e s u l t s of P r e v i o u s A n a l y s e s ... 199 7.5.4 Supply of Timber from o t h e r Sources 202 7. 6 Summary 208 8. P l a n n i n g Timber Supply f o r the V a r i o u s Regions 210 8. 1 R a t i o n a l e f o r P l a n n i n g Region by Region 210 8. 2 A p p l i c a t i o n of Timber RAM t o P l a n n i n g Region by Region 223 8. 3 R e s u l t s 225 8.3.1 Log-Flow Schedules f o r the Regions 225 8.3.2 R e l a t i v e Importance of the Regions 226 8. 4 D i s c u s s i o n 227 8.4.1 Other Assumptions about F u t u r e F o r e s t Management and Timber U t i l i z a t i o n 228 8.4.2 C o o r d i n a t i o n of R e g i o n a l P l a n s 229 8.4.3 An A l t e r n a t i v e P r o c e d u r e f o r P l a n n i n g Region by Region 232 8.4.4 Advantages of P l a n n i n g Region by Region 234 8. 5 Summary 235 9. Towards C o m p u t e r - a s s i s t e d F o r e s t r y P l a n n i n g i n P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a 237 9. 1 The Need f o r Improved P l a n n i n g Methods 237 9. 2 P r e r e q u i s i t e s f o r Improved F o r e s t r y Development i n P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a 239 9.2.1 A p p r o p r i a t e L e v e l of P l a n n i n g 239 9.2.2 Data Needs 240 9.2.3 Computer Technology and E x p e r t i s e 244 9.2.4 E n v i r o n m e n t a l A s p e c t s 247 9.2.5 Improvement i n the P u b l i c Image of F o r e s t r y .... 248 9. 3 Uses of the G e n e r a l Approach i n P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a 249 10. Summary and C o n c l u s i o n s 253 10. 1 Summary , 253 10. 2 C o n c l u s i o n s 260 LITERATURE CITED 267 APPENDIX I . L i s t of A b b r e v i a t i o n s 292 APPENDIX I I . L i n e a r Programming Problem M a t r i x f o r S c e n a r i o 1 294 APPENDIX I I I . L i s t i n g of the L i n e a r Programming Problem M a t r i x f o r the B a s i c S c e n a r i o 299 APPPENDIX IV. Average Gross Volumes i n the V a r i o u s F o r e s t C a t e g o r i e s 312 APPENDIX V. Number of Stems per H e c t a r e i n the V a r i o u s F o r e s t C a t e g o r i e s 317 v i i i LIST OF TABLES 1. M a l a y s i a : Gross Domestic P r o d u c t by S e c t o r of O r i g i n , 1970 and 1980 15 2. Commodity e x p o r t s from M a l a y s i a , 1980 16 3. F o r e s t a r e a of P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a as of December 1972 . 21 4. Development of the s a w m i l l i n d u s t r y i n P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a 36 5. Development of the plywood/veneer i n d u s t r y i n P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a 38 6. D i r e c t revenue from the f o r e s t s 43 7. E x p o r t V a l u e s of Sawlog and Sawtimber from M a l a y s i a , i n m i l l i o n $ M a l a y s i a n 45 8. E x p o r t V a l u e s of Major F o r e s t P r o d u c t s from P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a 46 9. M a l a y s i a ' s share of w o r l d t r a d e i n hardwood sawlogs and p e e l e r l o g s 47 10. M a l a y s i a ' s share of w o r l d t r a d e i n hardwood sawnwood ... 48 11. M a l a y s i a ' s share of w o r l d t r a d e i n hardwood plywood .... 49 12. D i r e c t employment i n l o g g i n g , s a w m i l l s , plywood/veneer m i l l s and o t h e r wood-based i n d u s t r i e s 50 13. Log p r o d u c t i o n from P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a , 1950-1979 53 14. Areas of PFE and S t a t e l a n d F o r e s t s (SLF) opened up f o r l o g g i n g 55 15. Rates of l o g g i n g on and c o n v e r s i o n of S t a t e l a n d F o r e s t s 56 16. Log p r o d u c t i o n from PFE and S t a t e l a n d F o r e s t s 88 17. U t i l i z a t i o n of l o g s i n P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a 61 18. V a r i o u s f o r e c a s t s of l o g - f l o w s c h e d u l e s , a n n u a l h a r v e s t a r e a s i n the PFE, and r a t e s of l o g g i n g on S t a t e l a n d F o r e s t s 65 19. Assumptions about the s i z e of f o r e s t r e s o u r c e base 70 20. Assumptions about ti m b e r y i e l d s and the l e n g t h s of i x c u t t i n g c y c l e s f o r the Permanent F o r e s t E s t a t e 71 21. Assumptions of y i e l d from t h e S t a t e l a n d F o r e s t s 74 22. F o r e s t a r e a as of 1980 137 23. Y i e l d s from the e x i s t i n g f o r e s t s 141 24. Average g r o s s volumes i n the f o r e s t s of average s i t e ... 143 25. Average g r o s s volumes i n the t h r e e q u a l i t y c l a s s e s of f o r e s t s .. 146 26. Y i e l d f o r the PFE assumed i n the FDPM P l a n 147 27. Y i e l d s from the Regenerated F o r e s t s 149 28. P r o j e c t e d domestic consumption of sawnwood and plywood i n P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a (roundwood e q u i v a l e n t ) , 1976-2010 165 29. P e r i o d i c t i m b e r h a r v e s t s i n the v a r i o u s s c e n a r i o s 167 30. P e r i o d i c h a r v e s t a r e a s f o r the v a r i o u s s c e n a r i o s 170 31. Government revenues from t i m b e r h a r v e s t 186 32. Cost of s i l v i c u l t u r e o p e r a t i o n s f o r the v a r i o u s s c e n a r i o s 187 33. The r a t e s of s i l v i c u l t u r a l assessment t o f i n a n c e the r e s t o c k i n g of the the f o r e s t s 188 34. Log p r o d u c t i o n from the v a r i o u s r e g i o n s 215 35. Log i n t a k e by s a w m i l l s and plywood m i l l s , by r e g i o n s ... 216 36. Log i n t a k e by s a w m i l l s , by r e g i o n s 217 37. Log i n t a k e by plywood m i l l s , by r e g i o n s 218 38. D i f f e r e n c e s between p r o d u c t i o n and m i l l i n t a k e of l o g s , by r e g i o n s 220 39. H a r v e s t l e v e l s and a r e a of PFE h a r v e s t e d i n the l a s t decade (1971-1980) 224 40. T i m b e r - h a r v e s t s c h e d u l e s f o r the v a r i o u s r e g i o n s 225 41. R e l a t i v e importance of the r e g i o n s as s o u r c e s of t i m b e r s u p p l y 227 42. Comparison of the h a r v e s t s c h e d u l e c a l c u l a t e d by a g g r e g a t i n g r e g i o n a l h a r v e s t s c h e d u l e s and t h a t i n S c e n a r i o 1 230 43. H a r v e s t s c h e d u l e s f o r the v a r i o u s r e g i o n s as a r e s u l t X of d i s a g g r e g a t i o n of the h a r v e s t s c h e d u l e f o r P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a 233 44. Range of V a l u e s f o r the L e t t e r Symbols i n the L i n e a r Programming M a t r i x ( F i g u r e 9) 296 x i LIST OF FIGURES 1. M a l a y s i a and A d j a c e n t T e r r i t o r i e s 11 2. P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a 12 3. Log f l o w s c h e d u l e s f o r P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a - r e s u l t s of p r e v i o u s a n a l y s e s 66 4. Range of h a r v e s t i n g i n t e n s i t i e s d e v e l o p e d by the FFIDP . 88 5. Timber h a r v e s t s c h e d u l e s f o r the v a r i o u s s c e n a r i o s 168 6. Decadal h a r v e s t a r e a s f o r the v a r i o u s s c e n a r i o s 171 7. Timber h a r v e s t s c h e d u l e f o r S c e n a r i o 1 172 8. Decadal h a r v e s t a r e a s i n the PFE f o r S c e n a r i o 1 172 9. S t r u c t u r e of Timber RAM L i n e a r Programming Problem 296 x i i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would l i k e t o thank my s u p e r v i s o r s , Dr. J.H.G. Smith and Dr. D.H. W i l l i a m s , f o r t h e i r h e l p and guidance d u r i n g my stu d y a t the U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h C olumbia. Dr. Smith's p a t i e n c e , i n s p i r a t i o n and f o r e s i g h t have f a c i l i t a t e d g r e a t l y the c o m p l e t i o n of t h i s t h e s i s . Dr. W i l l i a m s h e l p e d g r e a t l y w i t h computer t e c h n i q u e s and t h e i r use a t the Computing C e n t r e of the U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h C olumbia. Dr. D. H a l e y , Dr. I.B. V e r t i n s k y and Dr. C. Weaver, as members of my s u p e r v i s o r y committee, re v i e w e d the t h e s i s and p r o v i d e d v a l u a b l e s u g g e s t i o n s and c r i t i c i s m s . T h e i r h e l p i s a p p r e c i a t e d g r e a t l y . Dr. A.D. Chambers and Dr. V.S. Pendakur a c t e d as U n i v e r s i t y Examiners, and Dean J.W. Ker agreed t o become E x t e r n a l Examiner. I would l i k e t o thank them f o r t h e i r h e l p . I am v e r y g r a t e f u l t o U n i v e r s i t i P e r t a n i a n M a l a y s i a f o r g r a n t i n g my s t u d y l e a v e and s c h o l a r s h i p t o pursue my grad u a t e s t u d y . I am a l s o t h a n k f u l f o r the Donald S. McPhee f e l l o w s h i p from the U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h Columbia i n 1980-1981. F i n a l l y , I would l i k e t o acknowledge my w i f e , N a p s i a h , and d a u g h t e r s , J u i t a and Nora, f o r t h e i r h e l p , s u p p o r t , u n d e r s t a n d i n g , p a t i e n c e and endurance d u r i n g the p e r i o d of my gradu a t e s t u d y . 1 CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION 1.1 The Problem P l a n n i n g t i m b e r s u p p l y i n v o l v e s making p r o j e c t i o n s of the volume of the t i m b e r which c o u l d be a v a i l a b l e f o r use i n the f u t u r e . In t h i s t h e s i s the term s u p p l y i s used i n the sense of p h y s i c a l q u a n t i t y of f o r e s t p r o d u c t s r a t h e r than i n the economic sense of the q u a n t i t i e s t h a t p r o d u c e r s a r e p r e p a r e d t o s e l l a t v a r i o u s p r i c e s a t a g i v e n t i m e . L e s l i e (1971) suggested t h a t the former be best r e f e r r e d t o i n terms of f l o w of p r o d u c t s and s e r v i c e s t o a v o i d the p o s s i b i l i t y of c o n f u s i o n a r i s i n g from the two usages. The two terms, s u p p l y and f l o w , a r e used i n t e r c h a n g e a b l y throughout t h i s t h e s i s . Timber s u p p l y p r o j e c t i o n s w i t h o u t e x p l i c i t c o n s i d e r a t i o n of the r e l a t i o n s h i p of s u p p l y and demand t o p r i c e may be l a b e l l e d as "non-economic". However, i n most i n s t a n c e s the wood s u p p l y a n a l y s t i s working w i t h a f o r e s t r e s o u r c e about which too l i t t l e i s known t o be a b l e t o break the p o t e n t i a l wood s u p p l y down i n t o c o s t / p r i c e c l a s s e s ( A r n o l d , 1974a). Moreover, the u n d e r s t a n d i n g of p r i c e and n o n - p r i c e mechanisms of a d j u s t i n g demand and s u p p l y i n t o what i s obser v e d as consumption i s v e r y weak. I f da t a on t r e n d s of the c u r r e n t uses, h a r v e s t s and i n v e n t o r i e s a r e a t ti m e s of dubious q u a l i t y , c o n s i s t e n t and c r e d i b l e i n f o r m a t i o n on p r i c e e l a s t i c i t i e s and market mechanisms i s almost c o m p l e t e l y l a c k i n g (Row, 1977). A c o u n t r y ' s t i m b e r s u p p l y c o u l d o r i g i n a t e from i t s own 2 f o r e s t s , or from i t s own f o r e s t s augmented by i m p o r t s from o t h e r c o u n t r i e s . P l a n n i n g the p r o d u c t i o n of tim b e r from a n a t i o n ' s f o r e s t s ( t i m b e r management p l a n n i n g ) i n v o l v e s making d e c i s i o n s on whi c h , when and how much f o r e s t a r e a t o h a r v e s t and s u b s e q u e n t l y t o r e f o r e s t over a s p e c i f i e d time p e r i o d . The common g o a l i n t i m b e r management p l a n n i n g i s t o ensure an a c c e p t a b l e f l o w of t i m b e r i n the s h o r t - t e r m and a c o n t i n u o u s p r o d u c t i o n of tim b e r i n the l o n g - t e r m . The g o a l of a c c e p t a b l e stream of h a r v e s t s i s , i n t u r n , a means of a c h i e v i n g o t h e r g o a l s of s o c i e t y . The need t o p l a n t i m b e r s u p p l y assumes s p e c i a l importance i n P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a because i t has been p r e d i c t e d t h a t t h i s major e x p o r t e r of hardwood p r o d u c t s w i l l f a c e a t i m b e r s h o r t a g e b e f o r e the t u r n of the c e n t u r y (Chong, 1979a; FDPM, 1977a, 1980b; Mok, 1976). The l a s t t h r e e decades have seen a r a p i d growth of f o r e s t r y and f o r e s t i n d u s t r i e s i n P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a . The ann u a l t i m b e r p r o d u c t i o n i n c r e a s e d more than e i g h t t i m e s from a mere 1,305 thousand m3 i n 1950 t o 11,558 thousand m3 by 1979 1. I n c r e a s i n g h a r v e s t l e v e l s have been accompanied by an e q u a l l y r a p i d but u n c o o r d i n a t e d growth i n the t i m b e r - b a s e d i n d u s t r i e s . L o c a l s h o r t a g e s of l o g s have been e x p e r i e n c e d . F o r e c a s t s , made i n the l a s t decade, of the f u t u r e s i t u a t i o n of f o r e s t r y and f o r e s t i n d u s t r i e s have been h i g h l y v a r i a b l e . The F o r e s t r y and F o r e s t I n d u s t r i e s Development P r o j e c t (FFIDP) p r o j e c t i o n i n d i c a t e d t h a t f u t u r e h a r v e s t s would i n i t i a l l y The u n i t s a r e e x p r e s s e d i n a b b r e v i a t e d forms. A f u l l l i s t of th e s e and o t h e r a b b r e v i a t i o n s i s g i v e n i n Appendix I . 3 i n c r e a s e t o as h i g h as 17.3 m i l l i o n m3 per year and then d e c l i n e t o an a n n u a l s u s t a i n e d y i e l d of as h i g h as 17.0 m i l l i o n m3. These h i g h l e v e l s were p r e d i c t e d t o be accompanied by e x p a n s i o n of p r o c e s s i n g c a p a c i t y (FAO, 1974b). However, the F o r e s t r y Department of P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a (FDPM) (1977a) i n i t s own a p p r a i s a l warned t h a t the s u s t a i n e d y i e l d from the Permanent F o r e s t E s t a t e (PFE) c o u l d be as low as 4.5 m i l l i o n m3, thus c a u s i n g P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a t o become a net i m p o r t e r of f o r e s t p r o d u c t s by 1990. Other s t u d i e s i n d i c a t e d t h a t the t r e n d would be f o r the a n n u a l h a r v e s t s t o d e c l i n e g e n e r a l l y t o a s u s t a i n e d l e v e l of between 5.1 and 5.9 m i l l i o n m3 per y e a r . Baharuddin (1977a), i n a c r i t i q u e of the FFIDP p l a n , recommended a l o n g -range s u s t a i n e d y i e l d of 5.1 m i l l i o n m3. P r o j e c t i o n s made i n the F o r e s t Development P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a P r o j e c t (FDPMP) (FAO, 1978) and i n the FDPM p l a n ( F r e e z a i l l a h , 1980; Chong, 1979a) both i n d i c a t e d a l o n g - r u n s u s t a i n e d y i e l d of 5.3 m i l l i o n m3 per y e a r . My i n i t i a l a p p l i c a t i o n of l i n e a r programming t o Baharuddin's (1977) d a t a showed t h a t the f o r e s t s were c a p a b l e of m a i n t a i n i n g p r o d u c t i o n of 5.9 m i l l i o n m3 per year ( H a d i , 1980a). P r e v i o u s t i m b e r - s u p p l y a n a l y s e s have t h r e e major l i m i t a t i o n s . F i r s t l y , the pa s t s t u d i e s c o n s i d e r e d o n l y one l e v e l of f o r e s t management f o r the f u t u r e , namely an e x t e n s i v e f o r e s t management where the y i e l d from the f o r e s t s i s not much h i g h e r than under c u r r e n t p r a c t i c e . The p r o s p e c t s f o r more p r o g r e s s i v e f o r e s t r y , i n c l u d i n g the u t i l i z a t i o n of s m a l l e r t r e e s and more s p e c i e s , i n t e n s i f i c a t i o n of s i l v i c u l t u r a l t r e a t m e n t s i n the i n d i g e n o u s f o r e s t s and the e s t a b l i s h m e n t of p l a n t a t i o n s of f a s t -growing e x o t i c s p e c i e s , have not been e x p l o r e d e x p l i c i t l y . What 4 a r e . the p o s s i b l e l e v e l s of t i m b e r p r o d u c t i o n i f t i m b e r u t i l i z a t i o n i s improved and/or i f f o r e s t management i s i n t e n s i f i e d ? S e c o n d l y , p r e v i o u s p l a n n i n g e x e r c i s e s r e g u l a t e d t i m b e r f l o w on a p e n i n s u l a - w i d e b a s i s , i g n o r i n g the importance of the s t a t e governments which own and have the r e s p o n s i b i l i t y t o manage the f o r e s t s i n t h e i r r e s p e c t i v e t e r r i t o r i e s . What would be the e f f e c t s on h a r v e s t l e v e l s i f the t i m b e r s u p p l y i s r e g u l a t e d on a s t a t e - b y - s t a t e b a s i s , as opposed t o r e g u l a t i n g i t on a p e n i n s u l a -wide b a s i s ? T h i r d l y , the methods used were not c a p a b l e of i n d i c a t i n g an optimum l e v e l of f u t u r e h a r v e s t f o r g i v e n a s s u m p t i o n s . Most of the p l a n n i n g e x e r c i s e s used s i m p l e , manual c a l c u l a t i o n s based on the t r a d i t i o n a l a r ea c o n t r o l ; annual h a r v e s t c o r r e s p o n d e d t o the timb e r p r o d u c t i o n from the annual h a r v e s t a r e a , which i s e q u i v a l e n t t o the t o t a l f o r e s t a r e a d i v i d e d by the number of y e a r s i n a c u t t i n g c y c l e . Only the FFIDP employed a s o p h i s t i c a t e d computer s i m u l a t i o n model, but the model was d e s i g n e d t o s e l e c t h a r v e s t a r e a s t o f i l l up a p r e - c a l c u l a t e d annual q u o t a . Baharuddin (1977a) used an area-volume c o n t r o l i n an attempt t o ta k e i n t o account the tim b e r r e q u i r e m e n t s of the i n d u s t r i e s . What are the p o s s i b i l i t i e s of o p t i m i z i n g the l e v e l s of h a r v e s t s i f the l o g - f l o w s c h e d u l e s were c a l c u l a t e d u s i n g improved t e c h n i q u e s ? 5 1.2 O b j e c t i v e T h i s t h e s i s h e l p s t o answer the above q u e s t i o n s and p r e s e n t s an a p p l i c a t i o n of a L i n e a r Programming model t o p l a n t i m b e r s u p p l y from the f o r e s t s of P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a . I t a d a p t s the Timber Resource A l l o c a t i o n Method (RAM) (Navon, 1971a) t o c a l c u l a t e the h a r v e s t l e v e l s from the f o r e s t s of the p e n i n s u l a under s e v e r a l s c e n a r i o s r e p r e s e n t i n g d i f f e r e n t a ssumptions about t i m b e r u t i l i z a t i o n and i n t e n s i t y of f o r e s t management. I t a l s o i l l u s t r a t e s the a p p l i c a t i o n of the model t o p l a n t i m b e r p r o d u c t i o n on a r e g i o n - b y - r e g i o n b a s i s . The methods p r e s e n t e d i n t h i s t h e s i s s h o u l d remedy the sh o r t c o m i n g s i n p r e v i o u s a n a l y s e s of t i m b e r s u p p l y from P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a and i n the c u r r e n t f o r e s t r y p l a n n i n g system. T h i s t h e s i s i s the f i r s t i l l u s t r a t i o n of an a n a l y s i s of a f u l l range of p o s s i b i l i t i e s of t i m b e r u t i l i z a t i o n and - f o r e s t management i n P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a . I t c o n s i d e r e d , as a b a s i c s c e n a r i o , the s i t u a t i o n c o n s i s t i n g of the c o n t i n u a t i o n of e x t e n s i v e management of the mixed i n d i g e n o u s f o r e s t s and modest improvement i n l o g g i n g t e c h n i q u e s , as i n p r e v i o u s p l a n n i n g e x e r c i s e s . In a d d i t i o n , p o s s i b i l i t i e s of i n c r e a s i n g t i m b e r p r o d u c t i o n from more p r o g r e s s i v e f o r e s t r y a re e x p l o r e d . I n c r e a s e s from the use of l o g s of s m a l l e r s i z e s and more s p e c i e s , more i n t e n s i v e management of the f o r e s t s , the e s t a b l i s h m e n t of p l a n t a t i o n s of f a s t - g r o w i n g s p e c i e s , and the u t i l i z a t i o n of mangroves, rubber and o i l palms, and f o r e s t and m i l l r e s i d u e s are c a l c u l a t e d . T h i s t h e s i s a l s o c o n s i d e r s the c o n t i n u a t i o n of the c u r r e n t r e l a t i v e l y w a s t e f u l h a r v e s t i n g of the f o r e s t s t o show the 6 l o s s of v a l u a b l e t i m b e r r e s o u r c e s r e s u l t i n g from such p r a c t i c e s . A n a l y s e s a r e a l s o c a r r i e d out u s i n g the forest-management assumptions i n the c u r r e n t FDPM p l a n . T h i s t h e s i s r e p r e s e n t s the f i r s t attempt t o p l a n , i n an o p t i m a l manner, the t i m b e r s u p p l y f o r each s t a t e or group of s t a t e s i n P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a . S t a t e p l a n n i n g would produce p l a n s t h a t would be more m e a n i n g f u l and t h a t would have a b e t t e r chance of b e i n g implemented. I t t h u s e n a b l e s p l a n n e r s t o i n v o l v e the s t a t e governments -- the owners and managers of the f o r e s t s -- i n the p l a n n i n g p r o c e s s . P r e v i o u s s t u d i e s have assumed the p r e p a r a t i o n of a s i n g l e p l a n f o r a l l of P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a . The e l e g a n t p l a n s p r e p a r e d by the FFIDP (FAO, 1974b; 1975c), f o r example, s u f f e r e d from a l a c k of s t a t e i n p u t d u r i n g p l a n n i n g and a c o n s i s t e n t l a c k of support from s t a t e governments d u r i n g i m p l e m e n t a t i o n . T h i s i s the f i r s t example of the a p p l i c a t i o n of an o p t i m i z a t i o n t e c h n i q u e t o c a l c u l a t e t i m b e r s u p p l y f o r P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a . The a p p l i c a t i o n of such a t e c h n i q u e has been recommended by FAO (1974a) and S a l l e h (1977) as an a l t e r n a t i v e t o , or i n c o n j u n c t i o n w i t h , the s i m u l a t i o n models which they have deve l o p e d f o r P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a . The p l a n n i n g t o o l t h a t i s used r e p r e s e n t s a s u p e r i o r a l t e r n a t i v e t o the a r e a c o n t r o l method employed i n p r e v i o u s p l a n n i n g e x e r c i s e s and i n the c u r r e n t p l a n n i n g system. The t h r e e improvements, t h e n , c o n s i s t of the c o n s i d e r a t i o n of a f u l l range of f u t u r e f o r e s t r y p o s s i b i l i t i e s , the p r o v i s i o n f o r i n c l u d i n g the s t a t e governments i n s t a t e - b y - s t a t e p l a n n i n g , 7 and the use of more e f f e c t i v e and e f f i c i e n t p l a n n i n g t o o l s . These improvements c o u l d enhance the p r o c e s s of p l a n n i n g f o r e s t r y development i n P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a and i n o t h e r d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s f a c i n g s i m i l a r r e s o u r c e management s i t u a t i o n s . The f i n d i n g s , t h e r e f o r e , s h o u l d be of i n t e r e s t t o f o r e s t r y p l a n n e r s not o n l y i n M a l a y s i a but a l s o i n o t h e r c o u n t r i e s , e s p e c i a l l y those w o r k i n g i n the d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s and i n the development a g e n c i e s such as the FAO, the World Bank and the c o o p e r a t i v e a g e n c i e s i n the i n d u s t r i a l i z e d n a t i o n s who a r e i n v o l v e d i n p l a n n i n g the development of f o r e s t r y and f o r e s t i n d u s t r i e s i n the d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s . My a p p l i c a t i o n of Timber RAM t o a n a l y s e the f o r e s t r y s i t u a t i o n i n P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a i s an example of a t r a n s f e r of t e c h n o l o g y from the i n d u s t r i a l l y d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s t o d e v e l o p i n g , c o u n t r i e s . The a d a p t a t i o n of p l a n n i n g methods which have been s u c c e s s f u l l y used i n d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s t o s o l v e f o r e s t r y problems i n d e v e l o p i n g n a t i o n s has been ad v o c a t e d by f o r e s t p l a n n e r s a t a meeting of the S t e e r i n g Systems P r o j e c t Group of the I n t e r n a t i o n a l Union of F o r e s t r y R esearch O r g a n i z a t i o n (IUFRO) i n B u c h a r e s t , Romania i n 1978 (Navon, 1978). The p r o j e c t group was r e s p o n d i n g t o the commitment made at the IUFRO XVI World Congress i n O s l o , Norway i n 1976 t o study and seek s o l u t i o n s t o f o r e s t r y problems i n d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s . Another IUFRO group, the Working P a r t y on " E v a l u a t i o n of f o r e s t r y ' s c o n t r i b u t i o n t o economic development", has a l s o c a l l e d f o r the t e s t i n g of new t e c h n i q u e s . The working p a r t y c o n c l u d e d t h a t , a l t h o u g h i t s main o r i e n t a t i o n " i s towards d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s , work c a r r i e d out i n e c o n o m i c a l l y more advanced c o u n t r i e s i s of r e l e v a n c e . . . f o r the 8 a p p l i c a t i o n of methodology i n d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s . " (Grayson, 1976: 9 4 ) . I t makes a l o t of sense t o adapt the modern methods which have been d e v e l o p e d and used s u c c e s s f u l l y i n the i n d u s t r i a l i z e d c o u n t r i e s t o p l a n f o r e s t r y development i n the d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s . The f o r e s t s i n the d e v e l o p i n g n a t i o n s c o n s t i t u t e an i m p o r t a n t s o u r c e of wood and f i b r e not o n l y f o r t h e m s e l v e s but a l s o f o r e x p o r t t o the i n d u s t r i a l l y d e v e l o p e d n a t i o n s . The p r o j e c t e d i n c r e a s e i n w o r l d demand f o r wood p r o d u c t s and the f a s t d e p l e t i o n of the t r o p i c a l f o r e s t s , which a r e l o c a t e d m a i n l y i n the d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s , p o i n t t o the need f o r managing these f o r e s t s w i t h the most e f f i c i e n t and e f f e c t i v e t o o l s . 1.3 O r g a n i z a t i o n of the T h e s i s T h i s t h e s i s f i r s t i n t r o d u c e s the g e n e r a l background of P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a and then r e v i e w s the f o r e s t r y and f o r e s t i n d u s t r i e s s e c t o r of P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a . The d e s c r i p t i o n i s l i m i t e d t o P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a . The two Borneo s t a t e s of Sarawak and Sabah have been e x c l u d e d from t h i s s tudy because of d i f f e r e n c e s i n the f o r e s t r y s i t u a t i o n s between P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a and the two Borneo s t a t e s . The f o r e s t s i n the l a t t e r s t a t e s a r e a d m i n i s t e r e d i n d e p e n d e n t l y of the FDPM. The f o r e s t i n d u s t r i e s i n P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a a r e more h i g h l y d e v e l o p e d ; the Borneo s t a t e s have o n l y r e c e n t l y taken s t e p s t o d e v e l o p t h e i r r e s p e c t i v e f o r e s t i n d u s t r i e s and t o reduce t h e i r emphasis on e x p o r t s of round l o g s . S t a t i s t i c s on f o r e s t r y and o t h e r m a t t e r s have been kept s e p a r a t e f o r P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a and f o r each of the two Borneo s t a t e s . 9 The r i s i n g t r e n d i n l o g p r o d u c t i o n i n the p a s t decades i s d e s c r i b e d i n Chapter 3. The c h a p t e r summarises the f o r e c a s t s of f u t u r e l o g p r o d u c t i o n , made by s e v e r a l workers s i n c e 1968, and ends w i t h a s y n t h e s i s of t h e s e f o r e c a s t s . Chapter 4 l i s t s and d e s c r i b e s some d e s i r a b l e f e a t u r e s t h a t a 'good' timber s u p p l y p l a n n i n g method s h o u l d i n c o r p o r a t e . These f e a t u r e s a r e then used as c r i t e r i a t o a n a l y s e the methods used i n the p r e v i o u s a n a l y s e s . F i n a l l y , the p l a n n i n g method which i s recommended f o r P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a i s o u t l i n e d , h i g h l i g h t i n g the t h r e e a r e a s of improvement i n c o r p o r a t e d i n the method. These a r e a s of improvement a r e i l l u s t r a t e d i n the next f o u r c h a p t e r s . The more e f f i c i e n t and e f f e c t i v e p l a n n i n g t o o l , Timber RAM, i s d e s c r i b e d i n Chapter 5. The assumptions and d a t a f o r the v a r i o u s management and u t i l i z a t i o n s c e n a r i o s a r e d i s c u s s e d i n Chapter 6 and the l o g - f l o w s c h e d u l e s c o r r e s p o n d i n g t o the v a r i o u s s c e n a r i o s , as c a l c u l a t e d by Timber RAM, a r e p r e s e n t e d i n Chapter 7. An a p p l i c a t i o n t o p l a n n i n g t i m b e r s u p p l y on a r e g i o n - b y -r e g i o n b a s i s i s d e s c r i b e d i n Chapter 8. Chapter 9 argues the need f o r a c o m p u t e r - a s s i s t e d p l a n n i n g method i n P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a , and l i s t s s e v e r a l p r e r e q u i s i t e s f o r the development and i m p l e m e n t a t i o n of such a p l a n n i n g method i n P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a . The p o t e n t i a l uses of the recommended p l a n n i n g methods i n M a l a y s i a a r e o u t l i n e d . F i n a l l y , the summary and c o n c l u s i o n a r e p r e s e n t e d i n Chapter 10. 10 CHAPTER 2 FORESTRY AND FOREST INDUSTRY IN PENINSULAR MALAYSIA 2.1 G e n e r a l Background M a l a y s i a i s s i t u a t e d i n South E a s t A s i a ( F i g u r e 1 ) . E s t a b l i s h e d i n 1963, M a l a y s i a c o n s i s t s of P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a , f o r m e r l y M a l a y a , and the s t a t e s of Sarawak and Sabah on the i s l a n d of Borneo. P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a , i n t u r n , i s composed of the e l e v e n s t a t e s of K e l a n t a n , Trengganu, J o h o r , Melaka, Pahang, N e g r i S e m b i l a n , S e l a n g o r , Perak, P u l a u P i n a n g , Kedah and P e r l i s ( F i g u r e 2 ) . The F e d e r a l T e r r i t o r y c o n t a i n i n g the c a p i t a l c i t y , K u a l a Lumpur, was f o r m e r l y a p a r t of the s t a t e of Se l a n g o r but was i n s t i t u t e d as a s e p a r a t e a d m i n i s t r a t i v e u n i t i n 1974. P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a has a t o t a l l a n d a r e a of 13.2 m i l l i o n h e c t a r e s (32.5 m i l l i o n a c r e s ) , the p e n i n s u l a b e i n g some 781 km (202 m i l e s ) broad a t i t s w i d e s t p a r t . The p e n i n s u l a i s c h a r a c t e r i s e d t o p o g r a p h i c a l l y by a s e r i e s of mountain ranges which dominate the n o r t h e r n and c e n t r a l p o r t i o n . The main mountain range, which extends from T h a i l a n d i n the n o r t h t o the s t a t e of N e g r i Sembilan i n the s o u t h , c o n t a i n s peaks between 1,829 and 2,171 metres h i g h . The range i s c o n t i n u o u s , h a v i n g few a c c e s s i b l e p a s s e s . To the e a s t of the main mountain range, i n the s t a t e s of K e l a n t a n and Trengganu, as w e l l as i n the n o r t h e r n p a r t of Pahang, i s another a r e a of mountainous c o u n t r y . The s o u t h e r n p o r t i o n of the p e n i n s u l a , i n so u t h Pahang, Johor and Melak a , i s g e n e r a l l y l o w l a n d , below an a l t i t u d e of 150 metres (500 f e e t ) , u n d u l a t i n g and of easy a c c e s s . There a r e some 12 FIGURE 2. i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a Scale. 46 Miles to I Inch 0 5 0 O 20 30 40 50 Miles S U M A T R A INDONESIA 13 i s o l a t e d h i l l s . The p e n i n s u l a i s surrounded by d i s t i n c t c o a s t a l p l a i n s which a r e more pronounced a l o n g the west c o a s t . There a r e t h r e e major r i v e r systems. The K e l a n t a n and Pahang R i v e r s d r a i n eastwards i n t o the South China Sea and the Perak R i v e r f l o w s westwards i n t o the S t r a i t s of Melaka. The s o i I s of the p e n i n s u l a a re q u i t e v a r i e d because of the v a r i e t y of p a r e n t m a t e r i a l s . The main mountain range i s composed of g r a n i t e but massive o u t c r o p s of l i m e s t o n e a r e found i n many p a r t s of the western and s o u t h c e n t r a l r e g i o n s . The igneous and se d i m e n t a r y ( i n c l u d i n g l i m e s t o n e ) m a t e r i a l s a r e broken down i n t o many t y p e s of s o i l s due t o the d e c o m p o s i t i o n , l e a c h i n g and r e d e p o s i t i n g p r o c e s s e s . The c l i m a t e i s t y p i c a l of the humid t r o p i c s , c h a r a c t e r i z e d by h i g h u n i f o r m t e m p e r a t u r e s , h i g h h u m i d i t y and mo d e r a t e l y h i g h r a i n f a l l . The temperature ranges from the mean daytime maximum of 32 degrees C (90 degrees F) t o the mean n i g h t minimum of 22 degrees C (72 degrees F ) . The average r a i n f a l l i s a p p r o x i m a t e l y 2540 mm (100 i n . ) , r a n g i n g from a h i g h of 5080 mm (200 i n . ) t o a low of 1651 mm (65 i n . ) . The r e l a t i v e h u m i d i t y i s between 97 p e r c e n t a t s u n r i s e and 70 p e r c e n t a t midday. The p o p u l a t i o n of M a l a y s i a i n 1980 was about 14.3 m i l l i o n . About 83.1 p e r c e n t or 11.8 m i l l i o n p e o p l e l i v e d i n P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a , '9.2 p e r c e n t (1.3 m i l l i o n ) i n Sarawak and 7.7 p e r c e n t (1.1 m i l l i o n ) i n Sabah. Three major e t h n i c groups c o n s t i t u t e the p o p u l a t i o n i n P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a . About 53.9 p e r c e n t were M a l a y s , 34.9 p e r c e n t C h i n e s e , 10.5 p e r c e n t I n d i a n s and the r e m a i n i n g 0.7 p e r c e n t belonged t o s m a l l e r , m i s c e l l a n e o u s groups 14 (Government of M a l a y s i a , 1981). Sarawak and Sabah have numerous i n d i g e n o u s , e t h n i c groups of which Malay i s one. In 1975 some 63.4 p e r c e n t of the p o p u l a t i o n i n Sarawak were i n d i g e n o u s p e o p l e , 31.0 p e r c e n t C h i n e s e and 5.6 p e r c e n t o t h e r s . In Sabah, 64.1 p e r c e n t were i n d i g e n o u s p e o p l e , 21.5 p e r c e n t Chinese and 14.4 p e r c e n t o t h e r s (Government of M a l a y s i a , 1976). From 1975, the p o p u l a t i o n of M a l a y s i a has grown, and i s e x p e c t e d t o c o n t i n u e t o do so, a t an average r a t e of 2.8 p e r c e n t per annum. The average r a t e f o r P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a i s l o w e r , a t 2.6 p e r c e n t , compared t o the 3.8 p e r c e n t e s t i m a t e d f o r the Borneo s t a t e s (Government of M a l a y s i a , 1981). The d i s t r i b u t i o n of p o p u l a t i o n i s uneven as a consequence of g e o g r a p h i c a l , h i s t o r i c a l and economic f a c t o r s . The western s t a t e s of P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a a r e more d e n s e l y p o p u l a t e d than the e a s t e r n s t a t e s . In 1980, about 65 p e r c e n t of the p e o p l e i n P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a l i v e d i n r u r a l a r e a s , and the r e m a i n i n g 35 p e r c e n t i n urban c e n t r e s w i t h more than 10,000 people each. The urban p o p u l a t i o n i s growing f a s t e r than the r u r a l p o p u l a t i o n because of r u r a l - t o - u r b a n m i g r a t i o n . From 1970 t o 1980, the growth of urban p o p u l a t i o n averaged 4.6 p e r c e n t per annum (Government of M a l a y s i a , 1981). M a l a y s i a has b a s i c a l l y a f r e e - e n t e r p r i s e a g r i c u l t u r e - b a s e d economy which i s s t e a d i l y u n d e r g o i n g i n d u s t r i a l i z a t i o n . T a b l e 1 shows the major economic s e c t o r s and t h e i r development i n the 1970's. P r o d u c t i o n i n the p r i m a r y a g r i c u l t u r e , f o r e s t r y and  f i s h i n g s e c t o r a c c o u n t e d f o r 22.2 p e r c e n t of the r e a l Gross Domestic P r o d u c t (GDP) i n 1980. The s e c t o r ' s share i n the GDP Table 1 Malaysia: Gross domestic product by sector of o r i g i n , 1970 and 1980 Sector GDP Avg. annual Share of GDP ($M m i l l i o n ) growth (%) (X) 1970 1980 1971- -1980 1970 1980 Ag r i c u l t u r e , forestry and f i s h i n g 3,797 5,809 4 .3 30 .8 22 .2 Mining and quarrying 778 1,214 4 .6 6 .8 4, .6 Manufacturing 1.650 5,374 12 .5 13 .4 20 .5 Construct Ion 475 1, 186 9 .6 3, .9 4, .5 E l e c t r 1 I t y , gas and water 229 592 10 .0 1 .9 2. .3 Transport, storage and communications 581 1.696 11 .3 4. .7 6. .5 Wholesale and r e t a i l trade, hotels and restaurants 1.633 3.295 7, .3 13. 3 12. 6 Finance. Insurance, real estate and business services 1.036 2. 155 7 .6 8. .4 8. .2 Government services 1.367 3.398 9. .5 11. . 1 13. .0 Other services 306 657 7. 9 2. 5 2. .5 Less: Imputed bank services charges 117 308 Plus: Import duties 573 1. 120 Equals: Gross domestic product at purchasers' value 12.308 26,188 7. 8 Source: Government of Malaysia (1981) 16 d e c l i n e d from 30.8 p e r c e n t i n 1970. The major a c t i v i t i e s i n the s e c t o r a r e the e x p o r t of r u b b e r , palm o i l and sawlogs (Table 2 ) . Growth i n the s e e x p o r t s have been slow i n the 1970's because of p r i c e f l u c t u a t i o n s and the s h i f t from the e x p o r t of p r i m a r y commodities t o t h a t of p r o c e s s e d p r o d u c t s . T a b l e 2 Commodity e x p o r t s from M a l a y s i a , 1980 Commodity m i l l i o n M$ % of t o t a l Crude p e t r o l e u m 7,200 25. .3 Manu f a c t u r e s 5,865 20. .6 Rubber 4,860 17. . 1 Palm o i l 2,576 9. . 1 T i n 2,504 8. .8 Sawlogs 2,435 8. .6 Sawnt imber 1,221 4. .3 Ot h e r s 1 ,784 6. .3 T o t a l 28,448 100. .0 Source: Government of M a l a y s i a (1981) The m a n u f a c t u r i n g s e c t o r has p r o v i d e d the main impetus t o out p u t growth i n the 1970's. Resource-based i n d u s t r i e s grew r a p i d l y d u r i n g the decade due t o s u s t a i n e d i n c r e a s e i n w o r l d demand. These i n d u s t r i e s i n c l u d e d wood p r o d u c t s , c o m p r i s i n g sawntimber, plywood, v e n e e r , b l o c k b o a r d and p l a n i n g m i l l p r o d u c t s , and rubber p r o d u c t s c o m p r i s i n g t y r e s , tubes and fo o t w e a r . Growth a l s o o c c u r r e d i n the t e x t i l e , e l e c t r i c a l , e l e c t r o n i c s and f o o d - p r o c e s s i n g i n d u s t r i e s . The growth of the m i n i n g and q u a r r y i n g s e c t o r r e s u l t e d from i n c r e a s e d p r o d u c t i o n of crude p e t r o l e u m . The p r o d u c t i o n of t i n has d e c l i n e d s i n c e 17 r e a c h i n g a peak i n 1972. The GDP i n 1980 was M$26,188 m i l l i o n 2 . I t has i n c r e a s e d a t an average annual growth of 7.8 p e r c e n t d u r i n g the 1970's. T h i s GDP r e p r e s e n t s a per c a p i t a income of M$1,836, up from M$1,142 i n 1970. GDP v a l u e s are a t 1970 p r i c e s . 2.2 The F o r e s t s 2.2.1 F o r e s t C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s The f o r e s t s of P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a can be d i v i d e d i n t o two broad f o r e s t t y p e s : d r y l a n d f o r e s t s and w a t e r l o g g e d f o r e s t s . The n a t u r e of t h e s e f o r e s t s i s d e s c r i b e d below. These d e s c r i p t i o n s a r e based m a i n l y on the r e v i e w s by the FFIDP (FAO, 1973a) and S a l l e h (1977) of the works of G a r f i t t (1940), Symington (1943), Wyatt-Smith (1963), Ray (1968) and Whitmore (1975). 2.2.1.1 D r y l a n d F o r e s t s D r y l a n d f o r e s t s comprise the b u l k of the f o r e s t s of P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a . They a r e c h a r a c t e r i s e d by a dominance of the f a m i l y D i p t e r o c a r p a c e a e which c o n t a i n s a wide range of c o m m e r c i a l l y v a l u a b l e hardwood t i m b e r s p e c i e s , the main groups of which are the M e r a n t i s (Shorea s p p . ) , K e r u i n g s ( D i p t e r o c a r p u s spp.) and B a l a u s (Shorea s p p . ) . For management pu r p o s e s , t h e s e f o r e s t s c o u l d be f u r t h e r d i v i d e d i n t o t h r e e p h y s i c a l s u b d i v i s i o n s : (1) p r i m a r y d r y l a n d f o r e s t s , (2) p a r t i a l l y 2 M$1 was e q u a l to US$0.42 as of June, 1982. 18 h a r v e s t e d h i l l f o r e s t s , and (3) edaphic and u p p e r h i l l f o r e s t s . P r i m a r y d r y l a n d f o r e s t s c o n s i s t of the r e m a i n i n g , u n d i s t u r b e d d r y l a n d f o r e s t s . V i r t u a l l y a l l of the p r i m a r y f o r e s t s on a c c e s s i b l e l o w l a n d s i t e s below 300 m i n e l e v a t i o n have been lo g g e d or committed t o h a r v e s t i n g (FAO, 1974b). The r e m a i n i n g a r e a s of t h i s c a t e g o r y a r e on the h i l l s i t e s , o c c u r r i n g at a l t i t u d e s of 300 m t o 760 m above sea l e v e l . The t r a n s i t i o n from the l o w l a n d d i p t e r o c a r p f o r e s t s t o the h i l l d i p t e r o c a r p f o r e s t s i s g r a d u a l . Many s p e c i e s span both t y p e s but some s p e c i e s a r e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c a l l y found i n one type and not i n the o t h e r . The most i m p o r t a n t s p e c i e s i n the h i l l f o r e s t s a r e the m e r a n t i s (Shorea spp) e s p e c i a l l y m e r a n t i s e r a y a (Shorea c u r t i s i i Dyer ex K i n g ) and m e r a n t i b u k i t (Shorea p l a t y c l a d o s V. S i . ex Foxw.) and b a l a u ( s e v e r a l s p e c i e s of S h o r e a ) . Other s p e c i e s of economic importance i n c l u d e k e r u i n g ( D i p t e r o c a r p u s s p p . ) , Kempas (Koompassia m a l a c c e n s i s Maingay ex Benth.) and kedondong ( s e v e r a l spec i e s ) 3 . P a r t i a l l y harve-sted h i l l f o r e s t s are d r y l a n d f o r e s t s which have been s e l e c t i v e l y l ogged o r , t o a minor e x t e n t , d i s t u r b e d by s h i f t i n g c u l t i v a t i o n . T h i s c a t e g o r y c o m p r i s e s the l a r g e s t a r e a of f o r e s t and i s o b v i o u s l y i n c r e a s i n g i n a r e a as the p r i m a r y f o r e s t s a r e b e i n g h a r v e s t e d . The tim b e r c o n t e n t of these f o r e s t s i s v e r y h i g h l y v a r i a b l e depending on the l o c a l i t y and time of 3 S p e c i e s w i t h s i m i l a r t i m b e r p r o p e r t i e s are lumped i n t o a s p e c i e s group u s u a l l y named a f t e r the most common v e r n a c u l a r name. Some s p e c i e s groups c o n s i s t of d i f f e r e n t genera. Most c o n s i s t of d i f f e r e n t s p e c i e s . These s p e c i e s groups and t h e i r c o n s t i t u e n t genera and s p e c i e s a r e g i v e n i n FAO (1973a) and Tang (1976). 19 e x p l o i t a t i o n . Some ar e a s have been lo g g e d s e v e r a l t i m e s over (FDPM, 1975a). The 1972 f o r e s t i n v e n t o r y d a t a (FAO, 1973a) c l a s s i f i e d t h e s e f o r e s t s i n t o p a r t i a l l y h a r v e s t e d f o r e s t s , which have been l o g g e d s i n c e 1966, and d i s t u r b e d f o r e s t s which were log g e d p r i o r t o 1966. The p a r t i a l l y h a r v e s t e d f o r e s t s c o n t a i n s u b s t a n t i a l volumes of m a r k e t a b l e t i m b e r i n t r e e s of lower q u a l i t y and s m a l l e r d i m e n s i o n b e l o n g i n g t o the f u l l y m a r k e t a b l e s p e c i e s , the f u l l s t o c k of the l e s s f a v o u r e d but f u l l y m a r k e t a b l e s p e c i e s , p a r t i a l l y m a r k e t a b l e s p e c i e s and non-marketable s p e c i e s (FAO, 1973a). The d i s t u r b e d f o r e s t s , p a r t i c u l a r l y those of easy a c c e s s i n or a d j a c e n t t o the ti m b e r d e f i c i t s t a t e s of the west c o a s t , c o n t a i n v e r y low m a r k e t a b l e volumes. Edaphic and upperhi11 f o r e s t s o c c u r m a i n l y as p r o t e c t i o n f o r e s t s i n the major w a t e r s h e d s , on roc k y s i t e s , or i n p o o r l y d r a i n e d v a l l e y s . The major m a r k e t a b l e s p e c i e s i n c l u d e M e r a n t i s (Shorea s p p . ) , K e r u i n g ( D i p t e r o c a r p u s s p p . ) , Medang ( s e v e r a l d i f f e r e n t s p e c i e s ) and Kedondong ( s e v e r a l d i f f e r e n t s p e c i e s ) . The D i p t e r o c a r p a c e a e f a m i l y i s r e p r e s e n t e d by fewer s p e c i e s , e s p e c i a l l y i n the h i g h e r h i l l s , and the t r e e s a r e g e n e r a l l y s h o r t e r . The t h r e e - l a y e r e d s t r u c t u r e p e r s i s t s but the emergent s t o r y i s o n l y 24 t o 30 m h i g h ( S a l l e h , 1977). 2.2.1.2 Waterlogged F o r e s t s Waterlogged f o r e s t s o ccur i n the c o a s t a l p l a i n s . Two' c a t e g o r i e s can be r e c o g n i z e d : the peat swamp f o r e s t s and mangrove f o r e s t s . The peat swamp f o r e s t s o c c u r on peat s o i l s of up t o 6 m deep 20 and occupy r e l a t i v e l y l a r g e c o n t i n u o u s a r e a s on the e a s t c o a s t i n Pahang, on the west c o a s t i n Perak and S e l a n g o r , and on s m a l l e r a r e a s i n J o h o r . Very l i t t l e e f f o r t has been d i r e c t e d a t managing these f o r e s t s ( S a l l e h , 1977). They remained l a r g e l y u n e x p l o i t e d i n Pahang and o n l y p a r t i a l l y h a r v e s t e d on the west c o a s t (FAO, 1973a). The mangrove f o r e s t s occur as an almost c o n t i n u o u s b e l t a l o n g the west c o a s t , v a r y i n g i n w i d t h up t o 7 km, and f o l l o w i n g the banks of r i v e r s i n l a n d t o the l i m i t of h i g h t i d e (Ray, 1968). The two major commercial s p e c i e s a r e bakau minyak ( R h i z o p h o r a  a p i c u l a t a Blumea) and bakau kurap ( R h i z o p h o r a mucronata Lamk). The e x t e n t of these f o r e s t s as of 1972, as e s t i m a t e d from the l a t e s t f o r e s t i n v e n t o r y , i s shown i n T a b l e 3. 2.2.2 A d m i n i s t r a t i v e C a t e g o r i e s For a d m i n i s t r a t i v e purposes the f o r e s t l a n d s , which are owned by the i n d i v i d u a l s t a t e s , can be d i v i d e d i n t o t h r e e groups: the Permanent F o r e s t E s t a t e ( P F E ) , the S t a t e l a n d F o r e s t s and N a t i o n a l P a r k s and W i l d l i f e R e s e r v e s . A f o u r t h a d m i n i s t r a t i v e group, the rubber p l a n t a t i o n s , can be added because of the growing importance of t h i s r e s o u r c e . The PFE i s a d m i n i s t e r e d by the S t a t e f o r e s t r y departments. Each s t a t e government has the power t o d e s i g n a t e any l a n d w i t h i n the s t a t e as the PFE or t o e x c i s e any p a r t of the PFE f o r o t h e r purposes. The PFE i n c l u d e s a r e a s p r e v i o u s l y g a z e t t e d as F o r e s t Reserves and o t h e r a r e a s which a r e deemed s u i t a b l e t o be i n c l u d e d as such. 21 TABLE 3 F o r e s t area of P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a as of December 1972 F o r e s t Type West Coast and South East Coast and C e n t r a l T o t a l Pen. M a l a y s i a 1000 ha 1000 ha 1000 ha % Primary H i l l F o r e s t s 1040.0 2373.5 3413.5 41 Recently Harvested H i l l F o r e s t s 337.0 930.5 1267.5 15 D i s t u r b e d F o r e s t s and F o r e s t s Harvested p r i o r to 1966 984.5 989.0 1974.0 24 Poor Edaphic and U p p e r h i l l F o r e s t s 318.5 382.5 701.0 8 Swamp F o r e s t s , Primary and P a r t l y Harvested 595.0 369.0 964.0 12 T o t a l F o r e s t e d Area 3275.0 5045.0 8320.5 100 T o t a l Land Area 6816.0 6395.5 13211.5 F o r e s t s as % of T o t a l Land Area 48% 79% 63% Source: FAO (1973a) Note: L a t e r estimate (FAO, 1978) shows the t o t a l l a n d area to be 13,159 thousand h e c t a r e s . 22 The N a t i o n a l F o r e s t r y C o u n c i l and the N a t i o n a l Land C o u n c i l have approved, i n p r i n c i p l e , the p r o p o s a l f o r a PFE of about 5.2 m i l l i o n ha (12.8 m i l l i o n a c r e s ) and have urged the v a r i o u s s t a t e s t o a c c e p t and implement the p r o p o s a l (FDPM, 1979). S i n c e f i r s t p roposed i n 1973, the s t a t u s of the PFE has been undergoing c o n s i d e r a b l e changes due t o the e x c i s i o n of f o r e s t l a n d s i n the e x i s t i n g F o r e s t Reserves f o r a g r i c u l t u r a l and o t h e r developments, and the a d d i t i o n of S t a t e l a n d f o r e s t s t o the proposed PFE. As of the end of 1978, the l a s t y e a r of a v a i l a b l e d a t a , a t o t a l of 4.2 m i l l i o n ha (10.4 m i l l i o n ac) have a l r e a d y been approved, and 1.1 m i l l i o n ha (2.8 m i l l i o n ac) were s t i l l under c o n s i d e r a t i o n (FDPM, 1980a) . The a r e a of 5.2 m i l l i o n ha has been d e r i v e d from i n f o r m a t i o n g a i n e d i n the Land C a p a b i l i t y C l a s s i f i c a t i o n of P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a which was completed i n 1970 (Lee and Panton, 1971) and the 1972 f o r e s t i n v e n t o r y (FAO, 1973a). The former c a t e g o r i s e d the l a n d a r e a of P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a i n t o f i v e l a n d c a p a b i l i t y c l a s s e s as a g e n e r a l l a n d use g u i d e . C l a s s I p o s s e s s e s a h i g h p o t e n t i a l f o r m i n e r a l development. C l a s s e s I I and I I I p o s s e s s h i g h and moderate p o t e n t i a l s , r e s p e c t i v e l y , f o r a g r i c u l t u r a l development. C l a s s e s IV and V p o s s e s s p o t e n t i a l f o r p r o d u c t i v e and p r o t e c t i v e f o r e s t r y , r e s p e c t i v e l y . Of the 9.1 m i l l i o n ha (22.5 m i l l i o n ac) of f o r e s t e d l a n d i n 1970, some 5.7 m i l l i o n ha (14.2 m i l l i o n ac) were not s u i t a b l e f o r a g r i c u l t u r e and, t h e r e f o r e , appeared s u i t a b l e f o r f o r e s t r y . However, th e s e e s t i m a t e s of p o t e n t i a l f o r e s t r y a r e a s were r e v i s e d downwards because the 1972 f o r e s t i n v e n t o r y d a t a i n d i c a t e d t h a t a r e a s which have been c l e a r e d s i n c e 1970 or were d e s i g n a t e d f o r a g r i c u l t u r a l 23 development were l a r g e r than the e a r l i e r e s t i m a t e s (FDPM, 1979;. Tang, 1976). The S t a t e l a n d F o r e s t s are a d m i n i s t e r e d by the v a r i o u s s t a t e l a n d development a g e n c i e s and l o g g i n g i n t h e s e a r e a s i s o n l y under the nominal c o n t r o l of the s t a t e f o r e s t r y departments. The a l i e n a t i o n of the S t a t e l a n d F o r e s t s i s e x e c u t e d by a g e n c i e s such as the F e d e r a l Land Development Agency (FELDA), F e d e r a l Land C o n s o l i d a t i o n and R e h a b i l i t a t i o n A u t h o r i t y (FELCRA), Rubber I n d u s t r y S m a l l h o l d e r ' s Development A u t h o r i t y (RISDA) and S t a t e Economic Development C o r p o r a t i o n s (SEDC). C o n s e q u e n t l y , t h e s e a g e n c i e s have c o n t r o l of how much of the S t a t e l a n d F o r e s t s w i l l be c o n v e r t e d each y e a r . As w i t h the PFE, the e x t e n t of the S t a t e l a n d F o r e s t s i s not p r e c i s e l y known. S e v e r a l e s t i m a t e s have been g i v e n f o r v a r i o u s p o i n t s i n time i n the l a s t f i v e y e a r s . However, the c o n s t a n t exchange of a r e a s between the PFE and the S t a t e l a n d F o r e s t s r e n d e r e d those e s t i m a t e s l e s s u s e f u l i n e s t i m a t i n g the c u r r e n t s i z e of the S t a t e l a n d F o r e s t s . There were about 2369 thousand ha i n mid-1975 (FAO, 1978a), 2002 thousand ha by the end of 1976 (FDPM, 1977a; 1977b), and 2053 thousand ha a t the end of 1977, of which o n l y 1325 thousand ha were c o n s i d e r e d l o g g a b l e (Chong, 1979a). My e s t i m a t e , from s u b t r a c t i n g a r e a s c o n v e r t e d s i n c e 1976, i s t h a t t h e r e was o n l y 1124 thousand ha by the end of 1980. About 878 thousand ha have been c l e a r e d f o r a g r i c u l t u r e i n the p e r i o d 1977 t o 1980. The N a t i o n a l P a r k s and W i l d l i f e Reserves are a d m i n i s t e r e d by the W i l d l i f e and N a t i o n a l P a r k s Department. Over 600 thousand ha 24 of such f o r e s t s e x i s t e d i n 1978 (FDPM, 1980a), the b u l k of which i s l o c a t e d i n Taman Negara N a t i o n a l Park (434 thousand ha) and Endau-Rompin Park (202 thousand h a ) . These f o r e s t s are not e x p e c t e d t o produce t i m b e r . Rubber p l a n t a t i o n s a r e c o n s i d e r e d as a g r i c u l t u r a l l a n d , and s t a t i s t i c s of these a r e a s a r e not kept by the f o r e s t r y department. In 1980 t h e r e were some 2.1 m i l l i o n ha of rubber p l a n t a t i o n s i n P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a . Of t h i s a r e a , 507,100 ha were i n e s t a t e s and the remainder i n s m a l l h o l d i n g s . Rubber e s t a t e s a r e p l a n t a t i o n s g r e a t e r than 40.5 ha i n a r e a . The a r e a under e s t a t e s has been d e c l i n i n g from the 647,200 ha i n 1970, but the a r e a under s m a l l h o l d i n g s has i n c r e a s e d (Government of M a l a y s i a , 1981). 2.3 F o r e s t Management Management of the f o r e s t s i s i n f l u e n c e d by the s t a t e o wnership of the r e s o u r c e , and the s h i f t from the Malayan U n i f o r m System t o the s e l e c t i v e management system. 2.3.1 The A d m i n i s t r a t i v e S e t t i n g The M a l a y s i a n c o n s t i t u t i o n a l l o c a t e s a u t h o r i t y over l a n d and f o r e s t s t o the s e v e r a l S t a t e Governments. However, o t h e r m a t t e r s a f f e c t i n g f o r e s t r y and f o r e s t i n d u s t r y are v e s t e d i n the F e d e r a l Government or i n both l e v e l s of government. The c o n s t i t u t i o n empowers the F e d e r a l P a r l i a m e n t t o make laws w i t h r e s p e c t t o t a x e s , t r a d e , commerce and i n d u s t r y . P r o t e c t i o n of w i l d l i f e and N a t i o n a l P a r k s and r e h a b i l i t a t i o n of l a n d which has s u f f e r e d from s o i l e r o s i o n a r e i n c l u d e d i n the "Concurrent L i s t " . The l e g a l 25 n a t u r e of a t r e e changes i n the p r o c e s s of l o g g i n g . U n t i l a t r e e i s f e l l e d i t l e g a l l y forms a p a r t of the l a n d on which i t grows, and t h e r e f o r e comes under the j u r i s d i c t i o n of the s t a t e . Once sev e r e d from the l a n d , the t r e e becomes p e r s o n a l and movable ( t r a d a b l e ) p r o p e r t y which comes under the j u r i s d i c t i o n of the f e d e r a l government (FAO, 1973d). The development of the f o r e s t r y s e c t o r , t h e r e f o r e , r e q u i r e s the c o o p e r a t i o n of the F o r e s t r y Departments of both l e v e l s of government. The M a l a y s i a n F o r e s t r y S e r v i c e c o n s i s t s of the FDPM, w i t h h e a d q u a r t e r s i n the c a p i t a l , and the s t a t e f o r e s t r y departments i n the v a r i o u s s t a t e s . There i s a s t a t e f o r e s t r y department f o r each of the s t a t e s of K e l a n t a n , Trengganu, Pahang, J o h o r , S e l a n g o r , P e r a k , Kedah and P u l a u P i n a n g . The s t a t e s of N e g r i Sembilan and Melaka share a common f o r e s t r y department. P e r l i s has a s m a l l f o r e s t r y department, which i s headed by the s t a t e s e c r e t a r y i n the s t a t e c i v i l s e r v i c e . The two M a l a y s i a n s t a t e s of Sarawak and Sabah on the i s l a n d of Borneo have t h e i r own s t a t e f o r e s t r y departments, independent of each o t h e r and of the FDPM. The s t a t e f o r e s t r y departments c a r r y out the a d m i n i s t r a t i o n and management of the f o r e s t r e s o u r c e s , f o r e s t i n d u s t r y development, f o r e s t law enforcement, and revenue c o l l e c t i o n . The F o r e s t P o l i c y f o r P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a s p e c i f i e s t h a t the FDPM p r o v i d e t e c h n i c a l a d v i c e , a s s i s t a n c e and t r a i n i n g f a c i l i t i e s t o a c h i e v e p r o p e r and e f f i c i e n t management of the PFE, and t h a t the S t a t e Governments may ac c e p t the t e c h n i c a l and p r o f e s s i o n a l a d v i c e f o r i m p l e m e n t a t i o n . The FDPM i s a l s o r e s p o n s i b l e f o r f o r e s t r y s e c t o r p l a n n i n g and f o r e s t r y r e s e a r c h and development 26 (FDPM, 1979). C o o r d i n a t i o n between the F e d e r a l and S t a t e Governments i s e f f e c t e d t h r o u g h a N a t i o n a l Land C o u n c i l which convenes under the c h a i r m a n s h i p of a F e d e r a l M i n i s t e r , w i t h one r e p r e s e n t a t i v e from each S t a t e and a maximum of t e n members from the F e d e r a l Government. T h i s c o u n c i l i s r e s p o n s i b l e f o r f o r m u l a t i n g n a t i o n a l p o l i c i e s r e l a t i n g t o l a n d . C o o r d i n a t i o n r e g a r d i n g f o r e s t r y m a t t e r s i s c a r r i e d out by the N a t i o n a l F o r e s t C o u n c i l , e s t a b l i s h e d i n 1971, t o make recommendations on p o l i c y m a t t e r s r e l a t e d t o f o r e s t r y . T h i s c o u n c i l , which has the same c o m p o s i t i o n as the N a t i o n a l Land C o u n c i l , does not have the power t o make b i n d i n g d e c i s i o n s but a c t s as a forum where c o o r d i n a t e d agreements can be reached between the S t a t e and F e d e r a l Governments. The F o r e s t r y C o u n c i l a l s o f u n c t i o n s as an a d v i s o r y body t o the Land C o u n c i l on m a t t e r s r e l a t e d t o f o r e s t r y p o l i c y (FAO, 1974b). 2.3.2 F o r e s t Management Systems In the l a s t decade, f o r e s t management i n P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a has been i n a s t a t e of e v o l u t i o n from the m o n o c y c l i c Malayan U n i f o r m System, which has been employed s u c c e s s f u l l y i n the l o w l a n d f o r e s t s , t o the p o l y c y c l i c M a l a y s i a n S e l e c t i o n System f o r the h i l l f o r e s t s . E x c e l l e n t r e v i e w s of the s i l v i c u l t u r a l systems i n P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a a re a v a i l a b l e i n Mok (1977), FDPM (1972), I s m a i l (1966a), W y a t t - s m i t h (1963) and Hodgson (1932). The l o w l a n d d i p t e r o c a r p f o r e s t s , which have u n t i l r e c e n t l y been the main source of timb e r s u p p l y , were managed under the 27 Malayan U n i f o r m System. The system c o n s i s t e d e s s e n t i a l l y of the h a r v e s t i n g , i n a s h o r t s i n g l e o p e r a t i o n , of the m a r k e t a b l e t r e e s i n the upper canopy, f o l l o w e d i m m e d i a t e l y by the p o i s o n - g i r d l i n g of the non-marketable s p e c i e s i n o r d e r t o r e l e a s e the s e l e c t e d s e e d l i n g r e g e n e r a t i o n i n a r e a s c o n s i d e r e d t o be s u f f i c i e n t l y s t o c k e d as d e t e r m i n e d by a p r e - f e l l i n g s y s t e m a t i c l i n e a r s a m p l i n g . A l l t r e e s of economic s p e c i e s i n dbh g r e a t e r than 39 or 44 cm (4 or 4.5 f t g i r t h a t b r e a s t h e i g h t ) were t o be f e l l e d and the non-marketable s p e c i e s were supposed t o be g i r d l e d down t o 5 cm i n the l i g h t - d e m a n d i n g Shorea f o r e s t s and 15 cm dbh i n the s h a d e - t o l e r a n t f o r e s t s . P o l e s of m a r k e t a b l e s p e c i e s below the c u t t i n g l i m i t and weed s p e c i e s below the g i r d l i n g l i m i t s were t o be l e f t . L o g g i n g was n o r m a l l y completed w i t h i n two y e a r s . About t h r e e y e a r s a f t e r f e l l i n g , a second r e g e n e r a t i o n survey was c a r r i e d o u t , t o g e t h e r w i t h p o i s o n - g i r d l i n g of the r e l i c s t a n d and c l i m b e r c u t t i n g . A second r e g e n e r a t i o n s u r v e y was c a r r i e d out t e n y e a r s a f t e r f e l l i n g . The Malayan U n i f o r m System was implemented i n 1955 (FDPM, 1972) t o r e p l a c e the p r e v i o u s R e g e n e r a t i o n Improvement F e l l i n g system which s p e c i f i e d one p o l e f e l l i n g , two seed f e l l i n g s and two c l e a n i n g o p e r a t i o n s b e f o r e the main f e l l i n g . The s u c c e s s i v e f e l l i n g s and c l e a n i n g s were found t o be i m p r a c t i c a l because of r i s i n g l a b o u r c o s t s and heavy c a p i t a l o u t l a y i n m e c h a n i c a l l o g g i n g equipment a f t e r the Second World War. I t became e c o n o m i c a l l y n e c e s s a r y t o c a r r y out o n l y one s i n g l e f e l l i n g o p e r a t i o n (FDPM, 1972; I s m a i l , 1966a). W i t h most of the PFE i n the a c c e s s i b l e l o w l a n d s a l i e n a t e d 28 f o r a g r i c u l t u r e , most of the p r e s e n t PFE i s s i t u a t e d i n the h i l l s and i n f e r t i l e l o w l a n d a r e a s . The Malayan U n i f o r m System has been found u n s u i t a b l e because th e s e l a t t e r s i t e s a r e g e n e r a l l y not as r i c h i n the l i g h t - d e m a n d i n g M e r a n t i s (Shorea) and o t h e r m a r k e t a b l e s p e c i e s , and the Malayan U n i f o r m System r e q u i r e s t h a t t h e r e be abundant s e e d l i n g r e g e n e r a t i o n of m a r k e t a b l e s p e c i e s a t the time of f e l l i n g . The system was m o d i f i e d t o a l l o w f o r l e s s abundant and p o o r l y d i s t r i b u t e d r e g e n e r a t i o n . Three major changes were made. The r e g e n e r a t i o n s u r v e y s were postponed u n t i l a f t e r f e l l i n g and enrichment p l a n t i n g was c a r r i e d out where r e q u i r e d ( I s m a i l , 1966a). The t h i r d change was t h a t p o i s o n -g i r d l i n g of t r e e s s u r v i v i n g the f e l l i n g o p e r a t i o n was o m i t t e d (Whitmore, 1975; Burgess, 1970), because of the emerging b e l i e f t h a t t h e s e t r e e s might be m a r k e t a b l e i n the coming y e a r s . The presence of advanced r e g e n e r a t i o n i n the r e s i d u a l s tands a f t e r h a r v e s t i n g l e d t o the r e v i v a l of a p o l y c y c l i c or s e l e c t i o n system of management. A s u g g e s t i o n f o r the a d o p t i o n of such a system had been made i n the 1930's (Arnot and Landon, 1937). In 1971, a system of h a r v e s t i n g the t r e e c r o p s every f i v e y e a r s was proposed f o r s u s t a i n e d y i e l d management of a f o r e s t a r e a a l l o c a t e d t o a timber complex i n the newly d e v e l o p e d Pahang Tenggara r e g i o n a l development a r e a ( S k a p s k i , 1971). More r e c e n t l y , the FDPM i n t r o d u c e d i t s M a l a y s i a n S e l e c t i v e Management System. The d e t a i l s of t h i s system can be found i n FDPM (1972), Zulmukhshar (1979), Andel (1978), FAO (1978a), Mok (1977) and G r i f f i n and C a p r a t a (1977). The S e l e c t i v e Management System i n v o l v e s h a r v e s t i n g 29 m a r k e t a b l e t r e e s a b o v e s p e c i f i e d d b h l i m i t s a n d r e t a i n i n g a d e q u a t e a d v a n c e d r e g e n e r a t i o n f o r s u b s e q u e n t h a r v e s t s . T h e c u t t i n g l i m i t s a n d c u t t i n g c y c l e s a r e d e t e r m i n e d s e p a r a t e l y f o r d i f f e r e n t a r e a s , r e c o g n i z i n g t h a t t h e v a r i a b i l i t y i n t h e v o l u m e s a n d s t o c k i n g s i n t h e h i l l f o r e s t s d o e s n o t p e r m i t a b l a n k e t s i l v i c u l t u r s l p r e s c r i p t i o n f o r t h e w h o l e p e n i n s u l a . M o r e s p e c i f i c a l l y , t h e c u t t i n g c y c l e a n d d b h l i m i t s a r e d e t e r m i n e d o n t h e b a s i s o f t h e t i m b e r s t o c k i n g a n d v o l u m e , i n f o r m a t i o n o n m o r t a l i t y a n d g r o w t h , t h e e c o n o m i c s o f l o g g i n g o p e r a t i o n s a n d m a n a g e m e n t o b j e c t i v e s . A p r e f e l l i n g i n v e n t o r y o f t h e a r e a s u n d e r c o n s i d e r a t i o n f o r l o g g i n g i n t h e f o l l o w i n g y e a r s i s c a r r i e d o u t a t a n i n t e n s i t y o f b e t w e e n 10 a n d 3 0 . p e r c e n t ( G r i f f i n a n d C a p r a t a , 1 9 7 7 ) . A s a m p l i n g d e s i g n f o r a 1 2 - p e r c e n t i n t e n s i t y h a s b e e n d e s i g n e d d u r i n g t h e c o u r s e o f the F o r e s t D e v e l o p m e n t P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a P r o j e c t ( F A O , 1 9 7 8 a ) . T h e s t o c k i n g a n d v o l u m e o f t r e e s o f m a r k e t a b l e s p e c i e s w i t h a d b h o f 15 cm a n d g r e a t e r a r e e s t i m a t e d t o d e t e r m i n e i f t h e r e a r e e n o u g h b i g t r e e s t o b e h a r v e s t e d a n d i n t e r m e d i a t e s i z e t r e e s t o b e r e t a i n e d f o r t h e n e x t c r o p . T h e m i n i m u m v o l u m e t o be h a r v e s t e d d e p e n d s o n t h e s p e c i e s c o m p o s i t i o n o f t h e e x p e c t e d y i e l d f r o m t h e f o r e s t s , s p e c i f i c a l l y o n t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f d a r k a n d l i g h t R e d M e r a n t i ( S h o r e a s p p . ) . T h i s g u i d e l i n e h a s b e e n d e r i v e d f r o m e s t i m a t e s o f t h e p r e v a i l i n g t i m b e r p r i c e s , l o g g i n g c o s t s a n d t i m b e r - c h e c k i n g s t a t i o n r e c o r d s ( G r i f f i n a n d C a p r a t a , 1 9 7 7 ) a n d s h o u l d b e r e g a r d e d a s a n i n t e r i m g u i d e l i n e b e c a u s e t h e e c o n o m i c s o f l o g g i n g i n M a l a y s i a h a v e n o t b e e n a d e q u a t e l y s t u d i e d . T h e m i n i m u m h a r v e s t i s 21 m 3 p e r h a i f 30 Red M e r a n t i " c o n s t i t u t e s more than 50 p e r c e n t of the t o t a l h a r v e s t volume, and 28 m3 per ha i f Red M e r a n t i ' s volume i s l e s s than 50 p e r c e n t of the t o t a l (FAO, 1978a). The e x p e c t e d h a r v e s t volume i s d e r i v e d by d e d u c t i n g from the g r o s s s t a n d i n g volume of m a r k e t a b l e s p e c i e s , e s t i m a t e s f o r d e f e c t s and l o g g i n g damage, which a r e 40 p e r c e n t f o r t r e e s l e s s than 60 cm and 30 p e r c e n t f o r t r e e s g r e a t e r than 60 cm dbh. Adequate s t o c k i n g of t r e e s 30 cm dbh or l a r g e r i s r e q u i r e d a f t e r the e x i s t i n g , matured s t a n d i s h a r v e s t e d . A f t e r a l l o w i n g f o r f e l l i n g damage, at l e a s t 32 t r e e s per ha of commercial s p e c i e s , 30 t o 45 cm i n dbh, s h o u l d be r e t a i n e d . However, the c u r r e n t p r a c t i c e s e t s minimum l i m i t s of around 50 t o 60 cm dbh, t h e r e b y r e t a i n i n g t r e e s g r e a t e r than 45 cm dbh. In t h i s c a s e , the c r i t e r i o n i s t h a t the sum of the number of t r e e s 30 t o 45 .cm dbh and t w i c e the number of t r e e s above 45 cm dbh s h o u l d be a t l e a s t 32. The r a t i o n a l e i s t h a t the l a r g e r t r e e s would have a b e t t e r chance of s u r v i v i n g t o form the next c r o p . In u n d i s t u r b e d p r i m a r y f o r e s t s the number of t r e e s 30 t o 45 cm dbh i s a p p r o x i m a t e l y t w i c e t h a t of t r e e s 45 t o 50 cm dbh. A t r e e of the l a r g e r s i z e c l a s s i s t h e r e f o r e assumed t o have t w i c e the v a l u e of a t r e e i n the s m a l l e r c l a s s (FAO, 1978a). 4 Dark and L i g h t Red M e r a n t i s c o n s t i t u t e the b i g g e s t component of l o g p r o d u c t i o n from the f o r e s t s of P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a . D u r i n g the p e r i o d 1971 t o 1978, t h i s s p e c i e s group c o n t r i b u t e d an average of 34 p e r c e n t of the t o t a l a n n u a l volume. T h i s group i s among the most v a l u a b l e . A c u b i c metre of Dark and L i g h t Red M e r a n t i s f e t c h e d a market p r i c e ( e x - m i l l ) of $170 i n 1978 compared w i t h a weighted average p r i c e of $138 f o r a l l the major s p e c i e s and s p e c i e s group (FDPM, 1980a). 31 2.4 F o r e s t I n d u s t r i e s The f o r e s t i n d u s t r i e s of P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a range from s m a l l , independent l o g g i n g f i r m s t o l a r g e i n t e g r a t e d , e x p o r t -o r i e n t e d m a n u f a c t u r i n g complexes. S a w m i l l s and ply o o d / v e n e e r m i l l s c o n s t i t u t e the major component of the ti m b e r p r o c e s s i n g i n d u s t r y , the o t h e r p r i m a r y i n d u s t r i e s and secondary p r o c e s s i n g a c t i v i t i e s b e i n g r e l a t i v e l y undeveloped. There i s no p u l p and paper manufacture. 2.4.1 Lo g g i n g and Log T r a n s p o r t a t i o n L o g g i n g i n P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a s t a r t e d as a f o r e s t - c l e a r i n g o p e r a t i o n d e s i g n e d t o p r o v i d e l a n d f o r a g r i c u l t u r e , and t o s u p p l y wood f o r f u e l and domestic c o n s t r u c t i o n (FAO, 1973c). S i n c e the advent of s a w m i l l s i n the 1930's, l o g g i n g has d e v e l o p e d i n t o an independent c o n t r a c t t ype of a c t i v i t y t o meet the i n c r e a s i n g demand of l o g s f o r the i n d u s t r y . The l o g g i n g system has e s s e n t i a l l y been a l o w - c a p i t a l , l a b o u r - i n t e n s i v e a c t i v i t y o p e r a t e d as a s m a l l f a m i l y b u s i n e s s and dependent upon s m a l l - a r e a and s h o r t - d u r a t i o n l i c e n c e s . Even the few l a r g e l o g g i n g companies have tended t o o p e r a t e on a c o n t r a c t system u s i n g the f a c i l i t i e s of the t r a d i t i o n a l - t y p e l o g g i n g u n i t s . V i g o r o u s independence of the l o g g e r s and the d i v o r c e of l o g g i n g from the p r o c e s s i n g m i l l s have r e s u l t e d i n a h i g h l y fragmented i n d u s t r y w i t h l i t t l e apparent s a l e s o r g a n i z a t i o n (FAO, 1970). Logs a r e t r a n s p o r t e d from the f o r e s t s t o the m i l l s and, t o a l e s s e r e x t e n t , e x p o r t o u t l e t s , by roa d , r a i l and water. Road t r a n s p o r t a c c o u n t s f o r some 93 p e r c e n t a l l l o g s moved, and r a i l 32 t r a n s p o r t some 7 p e r c e n t ; water t r a n s p o r t a t i o n i s m i n i m a l (FAO, 1973c). A s a w m i l l or plywood m i l l u s u a l l y g e t s i t s l o g s u p p l y from s e v e r a l d i f f e r e n t l o c a t i o n s . In most cases the m i l l i s not the c o n c e s s i o n h o l d e r - ( E l l i s , 1976). A m i l l e i t h e r makes ad hoc c o n t r a c t s w i t h a number of l o g g e r s or t r u c k e r s , or buys l o g s from the l o r r y d r i v e r s of the l o g g i n g companies who peddle the l o g s as they see f i t (FAO, 1970; 1973c). T h i s d e f e c t i n the i n d u s t r y i s b e i n g r e c t i f i e d . The t r e n d i n the l a s t s e v e r a l y e a r s has been t o g r a n t l o n g e r - t e r m agreement ar e a s t o the t i m b e r complexes. The c o n c e s s i o n a r e a g e n e r a l l y exceeds 20,000 ha (50,000 ac) and i s t o be managed on a s u s t a i n e d y i e l d b a s i s . The l i c e n s e e i s r e q u i r e d t o c a r r y out s i l v i c u l t u r a l o p e r a t i o n s , i n c l u d i n g r e s t o c k i n g any h a r v e s t e d a r e a , and the government may reimburse the whole or p a r t of the c o s t s of t h e s e o p e r a t i o n s (Harun, 1976). These t i m b e r complexes u s u a l l y c a r r y out t h e i r own l o g g i n g . 2.4.2 The S a w m i l l i n g I n d u s t r y S a w m i l l s a r e the dominant f e a t u r e of the wood-based i n d u s t r y of P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a . In 1979, the 578 s a w m i l l s p r o c e s s e d 8,727 thousand m3 of l o g s , or 76 p e r c e n t of the t o t a l l o g p r o d u c t i o n t o produce 5,390 thousand m3 of sawnwood. Some 2977 thousand m3 of sawnwood, v a l u e d a t M$1,133 m i l l i o n were e x p o r t e d (FDPM, 1980a). The s a w m i l l i n d u s t r y i n P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a s t a r t e d as hand-sawing o p e r a t i o n s .before the Second World War. In the 1930's s m a l l s i n g l e - b e n c h s a w m i l l s were f i r s t e s t a b l i s h e d , and by 1940 some 65 such m i l l s were i n o p e r a t i o n , l o c a t e d m o s t l y i n the a c c e s s i b l e f o r e s t s . D u r i n g the Second World War (1941-33 1945) and the e n s u i n g Emergency 5 (1946-1960) s a w m i l l i n g a c t i v i t i e s were s e v e r e l y r e s t r i c t e d . The p e r i o d 1940 t o 1960 saw the r e l o c a t i o n of the s a w m i l l s from the f o r e s t s t o the urban a r e a s . Most of t h e s e m i l l s were l o c a t e d on the west c o a s t . Only 23.5 p e r c e n t of the t o t a l number of s a w m i l l s were l o c a t e d i n the c e n t r a l and e a s t e r n p a r t of the p e n i n s u l a . The m a j o r i t y of the urban s a w m i l l s were t e c h n i c a l l y i n e f f i c i e n t and had a v e r y s m a l l p r o c e s s i n g c a p a c i t y . Only 33 m i l l s had l o g i n t a k e s g r e a t e r than 10,000 c u b i c metres (350,000 f t 3 ) per annum 6, and of the s m a l l s a w m i l l s 82 p e r c e n t had no p r o p e r breakdown saws ( H u d d l e s t o n , 1961 c i t e d by FAO, 1972). The i n d u s t r y was dominated by h i g h l y independent family-owned e n t e r p r i s e s , r e s u l t i n g i n a l a c k of c o h e s i o n w i t h i n the s e c t o r (FAO, 1972). S m a l l family-owned e n t e r p r i s e s i n c o u n t r i e s such as M a l a y s i a a r e not e f f i c i e n t because of the .socio-economic environment i n which they a r e o p e r a t i n g . These f i r m s a r e governed by w e l f a r e economics: members of the f a m i l y have t o be a c c e p t e d f o r employment because i t i s the f a m i l y ' s d u t y t o f e e d f a m i l y members. C o n s e q u e n t l y , r a t e s of r e t u r n f o r the company are low, thus l o w e r i n g t h e i r c r e d i t r a t i n g s . They a r e unable t o expand t h e i r p r o c e s s i n g c a p a c i t y t o approach an optimum l e v e l . E n t r e p r e n e u r a l s k i l l s a re u s u a l l y not f o r t h c o m i n g ; the younger 5 The emergency r e f e r s t o the p e r i o d from 1948 t o 1960 when the government d e c l a r e d a s t a t e of emergency as a r e s u l t of an o f f e n s i v e l a u n c h e d by communist i n s u r g e n t s . The communist i n s u r r e c t i o n d e v e l o p e d i n t o p r o l o n g e d n a t i o n - w i d e g u e r i l l a w a r f a r e . The emergency was l i f t e d i n 1960. 6 l e v e l of i n t a k e which was c o n s i d e r e d t e c h n i c a l l y e f f i c i e n t (FAO, 1972). 34 g e n e r a t i o n , upon a c q u i r i n g s k i l l s , would i n v a r i a b l y move on t o work i n b e t t e r e n v i r o n m e n t s . There i s a l a c k of c o n t i n u i t y because subsequent g e n e r a t i o n s may not want t o c o n t i n u e the e n t e r p r i s e . S i n c e the a t t a i n m e n t of p o l i t i c a l independence i n 1957 and the end of the Emergency i n 1960, growth i n the i n d u s t r y has been phenomenal. C l e a r i n g of v a s t a r e a s of the l o w l a n d f o r e s t s f o r a g r i c u l t u r a l development has p r o v i d e d the i n d u s t r y w i t h an abundance of h i g h - q u a l i t y l o g s a t r e l a t i v e l y low p r i c e s . T h i s f a v o r a b l e l o g s u p p l y s i t u a t i o n and the almost i n s a t i a b l e w o r l d demand f o r and the h i g h p r i c e s of t r o p i c a l wood p r o d u c t s l e d t o a h i g h l e v e l of p r o f i t a b i l i t y 7 and, hence, t o a marked i n c r e a s e of investment i n the i n d u s t r y . The i n c r e a s e . i n i n d u s t r i a l i n v e s t m e n t s was a l s o s t i m u l a t e d by the new economic p o l i c i e s of the government d e s i g n e d t o s t i m u l a t e development (FAO, 1972). The r a p i d i n d u s t r i a l e x p a n s i o n has been l a r g e l y unplanned (FAO, 1972; 1975b). The absence of a p l a n n e d s t r a t e g y f o r the development of the i n d u s t r y has l e d t o a l a c k of u n i f o r m i t y i n the i s s u i n g , by the s e v e r a l S t a t e Governments, of h a r v e s t i n g l i c e n c e s t o l o g the f o r e s t s and i n d u s t r i a l l i c e n c e s t o s e t up s a w m i l l s or t o expand e x i s t i n g m i l l s . The p r o s p e c t s of i n c r e a s e d S t a t e revenue have tempted most S t a t e Governments t o l i q u i d a t e t h e i r f o r e s t a s s e t s at an i n c r e a s e d r a t e w i t h o u t r e g a r d f o r the l e v e l of f u t u r e t i m b e r p r o d u c t i o n , or the s t a b i l i t y of the 7 FAO (1972) e s t i m a t e d t h a t the r a t e s of the r e t u r n on investment i n the s a w m i l l s i n P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a were 36 p e r c e n t i n 1968 and 52 p e r c e n t i n 1969. 35 i n d u s t r y and, t h e r e f o r e , c o n t i n u e d b e n e f i t from the f o r e s t s . U n t i l about 1974 the new i n v e s t m e n t s were i n the form of s h o r t - t e r m c a p i t a l which was l u r e d by the. h i g h l e v e l of p r o f i t a b i l i t y . The r e s u l t has been a p r o l i f e r a t i o n of the t r a d i t i o n a l s m a l l - s c a l e family-owned s a w m i l l s w i t h i n f e r i o r m a chinery. These m i l l s were c o n c e n t r a t e d i n the more h e a v i l y p o p u l a t e d west c o a s t s t a t e s and t h i s v e r y r a p i d e x p a n s i o n i n c a p a c i t y has r e s u l t e d i n such heavy demands f o r l o g s u p p l i e s t h a t the f o r e s t s i n t h e s e S t a t e s c o u l d no l o n g e r s u p p l y the r e q u i r e m e n t s (FAO, 1975b). A p r o c e s s of r e l o c a t i n g the s a w m i l l c a p a c i t y from the l o g -d e f i c i t west c o a s t t o the f o r e s t - r i c h c e n t r a l and e a s t e r n r e g i o n of the p e n i n s u l a s t a r t e d i n 1968 and g a i n e d momentum i n the 1970's. Most new s a w m i l l s were e s t a b l i s h e d i n c a p i t a l - i n t e n s i v e t i m b e r complexes. By 1978 e i g h t i n t e g r a t e d complexes were e s t a b l i s h e d (FDPM, 1980a). Most of them have a s a w m i l l , t o g e t h e r w i t h a c o m b i n a t i o n of l o g g i n g u n i t s , plywood and veneer m i l l s , k i l n - d r y i n g p l a n t s and o t h e r f a c t o r i e s f o r the manufacture of p r o d u c t s such as m o u l d i n g s , b l o c k b o a r d , and l a m i n a t e d wood. R e c e n t l y , s m a l l - l o g s a w m i l l s have been e s t a b l i s h e d t o p r o c e s s t h e s e h i t h e r t o unused s m a l l - d i a m e t e r l o g s (Sim, 1980; L i e w , 1974). By 1980, about 100 s m a l l - l o g s a w m i l l s have been proposed or were i n o p e r a t i o n (Sim, 1980). In 1979, a t l e a s t 43 m i l l s were i n o p e r a t i o n (Sim, 1980), up from 32 m i l l s o p e r a t i n g i n 1978 (FDPM, 1980a). T a b l e 4 shows the development of the s a w m i l l i n d u s t r y s i n c e 36 T a b l e 4 Development of the s a w m i l l i n d u s t r y i n P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a Year No. of M i l l s Log I n t a k e o p e r a t i n g (1000m 3) Sawnwood P r o d u c t i o n (1000m 3) % Recovery 1957 NA 1 368 NA NA 1958 NA 1316 NA NA 1959 406 1 398 770 55 1 960 397 1919 1 029 54 1 961 404 1858 1006 54 1 962 41 1 1943 1069 55 1 963 41 1 2170 1 176 54 1 964 417 2369 1 324 56 1 965 421 2391 1 339 56 1 966 432 2566 1 422 55 1 967 417 2877 1726 60 1968 419 3574 2008 56 1969 447 3602 2040 57 1 970 448 41 26 2327 56 1 971 478 4174 2467 59 1 972 490 4936 31 36 64 1 973 504 6091 3589 59 1 974 529 651 0 3526 54 1 975 536 5741 3354 58 1 976 540 7629 4637 61 1 977 569 8534 5090 60 1 978 585 9023 5361 59 1 979 578 8727 5390 62 Source: FDPM Note: NA = not Annual R e p o r t s , ava i l a b l e FDPM (1980a), FAO (1970) 1957. Except f o r the d e c l i n e s i n l o g i n t a k e and/or s a w m i l l p r o d u c t i o n i n 1961, 1975 and 1979, t h e r e has been steady and r a p i d development. In the decade from 1961 t o 1970 the m a n u f a c t u r i n g c a p a c i t y , i n terms of l o g i n t a k e , i n c r e a s e d by 122 p e r c e n t , and i n the subsequent n i n e y e a r s an i n c r e a s e of 119 p e r c e n t pushed the c a p a c i t y t o a peak of 9023 thousands m3 per year i n 1979. The c o r r e s p o n d i n g i n c r e a s e s i n sawnwood p r o d u c t i o n were 131 p e r c e n t from 1961 t o 1970 and 130 p e r c e n t from 1970 t o 37 1978. In addition to the small-scale nature of a majority of the sawmills and their poor locations with respect to log supply, another major problem of the industry has been the underuti1ization of i n s t a l l e d capacity. The log intake of 8727 thousand m3 in 1979 represented only 88 percent of the t o t a l i n s t a l l e d manufacturing capacity, assuming only one s h i f t per day, or 44 percent i f sawmills were running double s h i f t s . Chong (1979a) estimated the i n s t a l l e d capacity to be 9958 thousand m3 assuming a single s h i f t . The low rate of u t i l i z a t i o n of processing capacity was due to the increasing number of m i l l s competing for the logs and the poor locations of most of the m i l l s . 2.4.3 The Plywood and Veneer Industry In contrast to the sawmill industry, a majority of the plywood m i l l s are modern. About one-half of the plywood m i l l s were established in the last decade. The plywood and veneer industry has been the most rapidly expanding timber industry in Peninsular Malaysia. In 1979, i t consumed 1,345 thousand m3, or 12 percent of the t o t a l log production, and produced 505 thousand m3 (based on 5mm thickness) of plywood and 77,457 thousand square metres (variable thickness) of veneer (Annual Report FDPM, 1979). The f i r s t plywood m i l l was established in 1948 (FAO, 1970), but i t was only after 1961 that the rapid expansion of the industry started. As in the sawmill industry, t h i s expansion was due to the high p r o f i t a b i l i t y of the industry, resulting from a 38 s t r o n g demand f o r plywood i n house c o n s t r u c t i o n i n the i n d u s t r i a l i z e d n a t i o n s , and t o i n c e n t i v e s p r o v i d e d t o the i n d u s t r y by the government, e s p e c i a l l y the P i o n e e r S t a t u s and lo n g - t e r m c r e d i t s g r a n t e d by the M a l a y s i a n I n d u s t r i a l Development Fund (FAO, 1972). T a b l e 5 i n d i c a t e s the c o n t i n u o u s and r a p i d e x p a n s i o n of the plywood and veneer m i l l s from 1961 t o 1973. C a p a c i t y i n c r e a s e d T a b l e 5 Development of the plywood/veneer i n d u s t r y i n P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a Year No. of Log i n t a k e P r o d u c t i o n M i l l s m3 m3 1 957 1 4 290 2 299 1 958 2 4 1 07 2 271 1 959 4 3 525 1 976 1 960 4 4 1 34 2 1 30 1961 4 6 044 2 963 1 962 6 1 2 425 5 310 1 963 6 18 749 7 403 1 964 9 35 971 12 500 1 965 1 1 74 491 27 830 1966 1 2 1 25 367 54 189 1 967 1 5 1 60 539 57 165 1968 1 5 299 769 101 360 1969 1 6 393 674 1 48 900 1 970 20 503 936 179 1 35 1 971 31 696 940 247 285 1 972 33 906 1 97 335 017 1 973 34 1 040 237 386 374 1 974 35 1 014 793 280 626 1975 35 851 881 341 1 34 1 976 35 1 195 589 499 477 1 977 35 1 365 325 524 655 1978 35 1 305 340 456 123 1979 35 1 344 914 505 185 Source: FDPM Annual R e p o r t s , FDPM (1980a), FAO (1970) 39 192 t i m e s i n the 13-year p e r i o d . P r o d u c t i o n of plywood i n c r e a s e d 130 t i m e s d u r i n g the same p e r i o d . In 1974 and 1975, l o g i n t a k e and plywood p r o d u c t i o n d e c l i n e d due t o weak demand and low p r i c e s as the . r e s u l t of a worldwide r e c e s s i o n (Ong, 1976; Radzuan, 1977). The problem of u n d e r u t i l i z a t i o n of p r o c e s s i n g c a p a c i t y i s not as s e r i o u s as i n the s a w m i l l i n d u s t r i e s . The l o g i n t a k e of 1345 thousand m3 i n 1979 c o r r e s p o n d s t o 86 p e r c e n t of the i n s t a l l e d c a p a c i t y , assuming two s h i f t s per day. A s i n g l e s h i f t i n 1979 c o u l d p r o c e s s 785 thousand m3 of l o g s a n n u a l l y (Chong, 1979a). O v e r a l l , the p r o c e s s i n g c a p a c i t y of the s a w m i l l and plywood/veneer m i l l s i s g r o s s l y u n d e r u t i l i z e d . Assuming two s h i f t s per day, o n l y 47 p e r c e n t of the t o t a l i n s t a l l e d c a p a c i t y was u t i l i z e d . These e s t i m a t e s .do not take i n t o account the c a p a c i t y i n s a w m i l l s which were approved i n 1979 but were not y e t i n o p e r a t i o n . A l l approved plywood m i l l s were i n o p e r a t i o n d u r i n g the year (Chong, 1979a). 2.4.4 Other F o r e s t I n d u s t r i e s Other f o r e s t i n d u s t r i e s i n c l u d e d one p e n c i l f a c t o r y , f o u r match f a c t o r i e s , two p a r t i c l e / c h i p b o a r d m i l l s and t h r e e m i l l s p r o d u c i n g wood-wool cement s l a b s ; these m i l l s u t i l i z e d a t o t a l of 57,814 c u b i c metres of l o g s i n 1979 (Annual Report FDPM, 1979). The p r o d u c t i o n of c h a r c o a l i s an i m p o r t a n t i n d u s t r y i n some s t a t e s . The main source of raw m a t e r i a l s f o r c h a r c o a l has been Mangrove wood, but rubber wood and m i l l r e s i d u e s have a l s o been 40 u t i l i z e d (FAO, 1972). Some 466 thousand m3 of c h a r c o a l was produced i n 1978 (FDPM, 1980a). Up t o 80 p e r c e n t of the c h a r c o a l p r o d u c t i o n i s consumed by the s t e e l f a c t o r i e s , the remainder b e i n g f o r h o u s e h o l d use. Rubber wood and m i l l wastes have a l s o been c h i p p e d and e x p o r t e d t o Japan. Secondary t i m b e r i n d u s t r i e s are not y e t f u l l y d e v e l o p e d a l t h o u g h s i g n i f i c a n t p r o g r e s s has been made i n the l a s t few y e a r s t o s h i f t emphasis t o the manufacture of g r e a t e r value-added p r o d u c t s . The major a c t i v i t i e s have been t i m b e r p r e s e r v a t i o n and k i l n d r y i n g . In 1978, t h e r e were 118 w o o d - p r e s e r v a t i o n p l a n t s o p e r a t e d by sawm'illers and e x p o r t e r s as w e l l as by government a g e n c i e s (FDPM, 1980a). In 1978, some 99 k i l n - d r y i n g p l a n t s were i n o p e r a t i o n . Other i n d u s t r i a l a c t i v i t i e s i n c l u d e d the p r o d u c t i o n of f u r n i t u r e , m o u l d i n g s , dowels, t r u c k f l o o r i n g , p r e f a b r i c a t e d wooden houses and house p a r t s , such as p a n e l l i n g , door and window frames and tongue-and-groove f l o o r i n g , p a c k i n g c r a t e s , h i g h - q u a l i t y c a b i n e t s and speaker boxes, b l o c k b o a r d and p a r t i c l e b o a r d s , wooden t o y s and s o u v e n i r s , and the c o n s t r u c t i o n of b o a ts and boat p a r t s (Chong, 1976; FAO, 1972). Most of these p r o d u c t s a r e f o r the domestic market. In 1971, some 90 p e r c e n t of the t o t a l e x p o r t e d machined-wood p r o d u c t s were manufactured by o n l y f o u r companies (FAO, 1972). There were 620 f u r n i t u r e m a n u f a c t u r i n g e n t e r p r i s e s and 95 j o i n e r i e s i n o p e r a t i o n i n P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a i n 1976. These two secondary wood-based i n d u s t r i e s were not w e l l - d e v e l o p e d i n terms of d e s i g n , mass p r o d u c t i o n t e c h n i q u e s , p r o d u c t i o n management and promotion t e c h n i q u e s . Most of the f u r n i t u r e produced by the 41 i n d u s t r y was of domestic consumption. There were f i v e companies of some s i g n i f i c a n c e p r o d u c i n g p r e f a b r i c a t e d h o u s i n g u n i t s t o c a t e r m a i n l y f o r government l a n d development and f l o o d r e s e t t l e m e n t schemes ( J a m i l , 1976). In 1978, t h e r e were 86 m oulding p l a n t s i n P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a (FDPM, 1980a). There i s no p u l p and paper i n d u s t r y i n P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a ; even though t h e r e were 11 s m a l l paper m i l l s i n 1978, no p u l p m i l l has been e s t a b l i s h e d . Peh and Choo (1980) p r o v i d e d a r e view of the paper i n d u s t r y as of 1978. The e x i s t i n g paper m i l l s produced t o i l e t p a p e r s , j o s s , f o l d i n g boxes, c o r r u g a t i n g medium, and w rapping, t i c k e t and p o s t e r p a p e r s . These m i l l s depended on waste paper as raw m a t e r i a l . The l e v e l of p r o d u c t i o n i s low, the b u l k of paper and paperboard requirement of the c o u n t r y b e i n g i m p o r t e d . In 1978, some 223,408 tonnes of paper p r o d u c t s were import e d i n t o P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a , c o s t i n g about M$233 m i l l i o n . The absence of i n t e g r a t e d p u l p and paper m i l l s has been due t o f i n a n c i a l and t e c h n i c a l c o n s t r a i n t s . S i n c e the l a t e 1950's M a l a y s i a has been g e a r i n g i t s e l f t o the e v e n t u a l e s t a b l i s h m e n t of a v i a b l e p u l p and paper i n d u s t r y . The government has shown sup p o r t f o r the development of the i n d u s t r y by p a r t i c i p a t i n g i n f e a s i b i l i t y s t u d i e s , p r o v i d i n g i n c e n t i v e s t o a t t r a c t i n v e s t m e n t s and e s t a b l i s h i n g p i l o t - s c a l e f o r e s t p l a n t a t i o n s . S e v e r a l i n t e r n a t i o n a l c o r p o r a t i o n s have i n d i c a t e d i n t e r e s t i n e s t a b l i s h i n g p u l p and paper m i l l s i n the c o u n t r y on a j o i n t -v e n t u r e b a s i s ; however, f o r v a r i o u s r e a s o n s , no such m i l l s have m a t e r i a l i z e d . U n c e r t a i n t i e s i n the p u l p and paper markets i n the l a s t s e v e r a l y e a r s and the l a c k of l o c a l f i n a n c i a l and t e c h n i c a l 42 r e s o u r c e s may have been the major c o n s t r a i n t s (Peh and Choo, 1980). 2.5. Importance of the F o r e s t r y and F o r e s t I n d u s t r i e s S e c t o r The P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a f o r e s t r y and f o r e s t i n d u s t r i e s s e c t o r has c o n s i s t e n t l y c o n t r i b u t e d between 4.3 and 4.8 p e r c e n t of the g r o s s domestic p r o d u c t i n the p e r i o d 1972 t o 1978. The p e r c e n t a g e i s h i g h e r , between 7.2 t o 8.5 p e r c e n t , f o r the whole c o u n t r y i n d i c a t i n g the l a r g e r r o l e of f o r e s t r y , m a i n l y i n the form of l o g e x p o r t , i n the two s t a t e s of Sarawak and Sabah (FDPM, 1980a). The M a l a y s i a n economy expanded at a r a t e of 7.8 p e r c e n t per annum d u r i n g the decade from 1971 t o 1980. The c o n t r i b u t i o n of the f o r e s t r y and f o r e s t i n d u s t r i e s s e c t o r grew a c c o r d i n g l y due t o a 3.4 p e r c e n t annual i n c r e a s e i n the p r o d u c t i o n of sawlogs and veneer l o g s and t o a more than 10 p e r c e n t i n c r e a s e i n the manufacture of wood p r o d u c t s (Government of M a l a y s i a , 1981). The f o r e s t c o n t r i b u t e s d i r e c t l y t o the economy of each of the s t a t e s t h r o u g h revenues from the h a r v e s t of t i m b e r . The s t a t e governments r e c e i v e t h r e e t y p e s of assessment from the l o g g i n g companies. R o y a l t y i s a fee p ayable per u n i t volume of t i m b e r h a r v e s t e d . Premium i s a charge per h e c t a r e of f o r e s t g r a n t e d f o r l o g g i n g . F o r e s t development assessment or s i l v i c u l t u r e c e s s i s a c o n t r i b u t i o n from the p r i v a t e s e c t o r t o f o r e s t r y development and i s l e v i e d per u n i t volume of l o g s h a r v e s t e d . In one S t a t e , Trengganu, l o g g e r s a r e r e q u i r e d t o c o n t r i b u t e , t o a s p e c i a l E d u c a t i o n Fund, amounts p r o p o r t i o n a l t o the volume of l o g s removed from the f o r e s t . Gross revenue from t h e s e s o u r c e s , and from payments of compensations and f i n e s , have 43 i n c r e a s e d by over 200 p e r c e n t from 1960 t o 1970, and by 155 p e r c e n t from 1970 t o 1978 (Table 6 ) . The d a t a f o r the p e r i o d from 1972 t o 1977 show t h a t o n l y about 21 p e r c e n t of the revenue T a b l e 6 D i r e c t revenue from the f o r e s t s Year Revenue E x p e n d i t u r e Net Revenue m i l l i o n $ ( M a l a y s i a n ) 1 955 12.958 5.351 7.608 1 956 14.638 5.660 8.978 1 957 14.438 6. 1 66 8.271 1958 14.285 6.537 7.748 1 959 14.172 6.534 - 7.637 1 960 18.323 6.973 11 .350 1 961 19.094 7. 187 11.907 1 962 20.023 7.475 12.548 1 963 22.294 8.394 13.900 1 964 25.166 8.892 16.294 1 965 26.568 9.709 16.859 1 966 31.311 11.584 19.727 1 967 36.325 13.584 22.741 1 968 4.3.028 12.140 30.888 1 969 48.261 11.905 36.356 1 970 56.104 12.520 42.584 1 971 58.833 15.500 43.333 1 972 73.037 16.325 56.712 1 973 90.926 17.454 73.472 1 974 85.408 19.305 66.103 1 975 88.472 24.172 64.300 1 976 121.168 23.341 97.827 1977 136.121 33.672 102.449 1 978 143.048 NA NA Note: NA = not a v a i l a b l e Source: FDPM Annual R e p o r t s , 1964, 1970; FDPM (1979); L a t i f f (1977) has been spent f o r the f o r e s t r y s e c t o r , the r e m a i n i n g 79 p e r c e n t b e i n g used f o r the maintenance and development of o t h e r s e c t o r s 44 i n the economy. Data from 1978 onwards were not a v a i l a b l e a t the time of w r i t i n g . In 1980, a l l d i r e c t and i n d i r e c t t a x e s y i e l d e d M$11,923 m i l l i o n , c o n s t i t u t i n g about 93 p e r c e n t of the t o t a l revenue of the F e d e r a l Government of M a l a y s i a (Government of M a l a y s i a , 1981). F o r e s t r y and f o r e s t i n d u s t r i e s c o n t r i b u t e t o the f e d e r a l government t h r o u g h the payment of t a x e s . The magnitude of the c o n t r i b u t i o n of the f o r e s t r y and f o r e s t i n d u s t r i e s s e c t o r was not a v a i l a b l e , but a s i g n i f i c a n t p o r t i o n of the t o t a l t a x e s must have come from the s e c t o r i n the form of income t a x e s from the t i m b e r companies and t h e i r employees, e x p o r t and custom e x c i s e d u t i e s from the e x p o r t s of t i m b e r p r o d u c t s and motor v e h i c l e l i c e n c e and road t a x e s from f o r e s t h a r v e s t i n g and t r a n s p o r t a t i o n of f o r e s t p r o d u c t s . The e x p o r t s of l o g s and t i m b e r p r o d u c t s have been a f e a t u r e of M a l a y s i a f o r the l a s t two decades. The e x p o r t of l o g s and sawnwood from the whole c o u n t r y has been among the t o p f i v e f o r e i g n exchange e a r n e r s , t o g e t h e r - w i t h rubber and rubber p r o d u c t s , t i n , p e t r o l e u m and palm o i l . In 1980, t h e s e two f o r e s t p r o d u c t s r e g i s t e r e d some M$2309 m i l l i o n s , c o r r e s p o n d i n g t o 12.9 p e r c e n t of t o t a l g r o s s e x p o r t . D u r i n g the p e r i o d 1970 t o 1980, t h e s e two p r o d u c t s c o n t r i b u t e d between 11.5 p e r c e n t and 21.0 p e r c e n t of the t o t a l v a l u e of commodity e x p o r t s (Table 7) (Government of M a l a y s i a , 1976; 1979; 1981). The e x p o r t v a l u e s of o t h e r p r o d u c t s such as plywood, veneer, mouldings and woodchips have not been i n c l u d e d . The p r o p o r t i o n c o n t r i b u t e d by a l l f o r e s t p r o d u c t s would, t h e r e f o r e , be h i g h e r . The v a l u e of e x p o r t s of 45 Ta b l e 7 E x p o r t V a l u e s of Sawlog and Sawtimber from M a l a y s i a , i n m i l l i o n $ M a l a y s i a n Year Sawlogs Sawntimber S u b t o t a l S u b t o t a l % T o t a l of T o t a l Gross E x p o r t s 1970 643 201 844 16.3 5163 1971 641 1 92 833 16.6 501 7 1 972 590 275 865 17.8 4854 1 973 987 561 1 548 21.0 7372 1 974 1032 437 1 469 14.4 10189 1975 669 392 1 061 11.5 9231 1 976 1 471 854 2325 17.3 13442 1 977 1519 790 2309 15.4 14971 1 978 1 562 747 2309 13.8 16752 1 979 NA NA NA NA NA 1980 2435 1221 3656 12.9 28445 Note: NA = not a v a i l a b l e Source : Government of M a l a y s i a (1976,1979,1981 tim b e r p r o d u c t s from P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a i s shown i n Table 8. The i n c r e a s e i n the t o t a l v a l u e has been due t o the e x p o r t of an i n c r e a s i n g volume of p r o c e s s e d and h i g h e r - v a l u e p r o d u c t s and not from i n c r e a s e d l o g p r o d u c t i o n . M a l a y s i a was the w o r l d l e a d i n g e x p o r t e r of hardwood l o g s u n t i l 1971 when I n d o n e s i a i n c r e a s e d i t s l o g p r o d u c t i o n and e x p o r t s t o become the l a r g e s t e x p o r t e r . M a l a y s i a a c c o u n t e d f o r 34 p e r c e n t of the w o r l d e x p o r t s i n 1979 (Table 9 ) . Most of the l o g e x p o r t s come from the Borneo S t a t e s of Sabah, and t o a d e c r e a s i n g e x t e n t , Sarawak; the e x p o r t s from P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a d e c l i n e d s i n c e the i m p o s i t i o n of a ban on the e x p o r t of major s p e c i e s i n 1972. P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a now e x p o r t s l e s s than one p e r c e n t of the w o r l d e x p o r t volume. M a l a y s i a , however, r e t a i n s i t s p o s i t i o n as the w o r l d l e a d i n g 46 Tab l e 8 E x p o r t V a l u e s of Major F o r e s t P r o d u c t s from P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a Year Logs Sawnt imber Plywood Veneer T o t a l mi 11 i o n $ ( M a l a y s i a n ) 1961 15.5 30.0 NA NA 45.5 1962 43.2 56.0 4.8 2.6 106.6 1971 101.8 1 45.8 55.0 6.3 309.9 1972 99.6 225.9 79.2 8.7 413.4 1 973 56.5 472.5 1 48.9 18.1 696.0 1974 53.8 391 .9 95.4 28.5 569.6 1 975 37.9 365.2 88.2 13.9 505.2 1 976 36. 1 733.7 173.2 19.3 962.3 1 977 23.4 690.5 143.2 25.2 882.3 1978 12.6 717.8 182.3 19.5 932.2 1 979 23.3 1133.2 240.9 24.0 1421 .4 Note: NA = not a v a i l a b l e Source: FDPM (1980a) e x p o r t e r of hardwood sawnwood, s u p p l y i n g some 22 p e r c e n t of w o r l d e x p o r t s i n 1979 (Table 10). P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a c o n t r i b u t e s more than 90 p e r c e n t of M a l a y s i a ' s t o t a l e x p o r t volume. The e x p o r t of plywood and o t h e r wood-based p a n e l s from M a l a y s i a i s growing i n importance i n the w o r l d market. M a l a y s i a , i n 1979, was the s i x t h l a r g e s t e x p o r t e r a f t e r Taiwan, South Korea, S i n g a p o r e , F i n l a n d and Canada, a c c o u n t i n g f o r about s i x p e r c e n t of the w o r l d e x p o r t volume (Table 11). The e x p o r t of round l o g s from M a l a y s i a i s e x p e c t e d t o dec r e a s e because Sarawak and Sabah have a l s o i n d i c a t e d the d e s i r e t o reduce t h e i r r e s p e c t i v e e x p o r t q u o t a s . Sarawak i n t e n d e d t o reduce l o g e x p o r t s t o 30 p e r c e n t of the t o t a l a n n u a l p r o d u c t i o n and Sabah i n d i c a t e d t h a t i t w i l l reduce i t s l o g e x p o r t s from 90% of the t o t a l h a r v e s t i n 1977 t o 50 p e r c e n t by 1981 ( M a l a y s i a n 47 T a b l e 9 M a l a y s i a ' s share of w o r l d t r a d e i n hardwood sawlogs and p e e l e r l o g s Year P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a World M a l a y s i a % P. M a l a y s i a M a l a y s i a of World % of World thousand c u b i c metres 1961 4 2754 1 4306 19 * 1962 2 31 59 1 4620 22 * 1963 61 3937 17918 22 * 1 964 889 5131 19901 26 5 1 965 1 037 6041 21 1 62 29 5 1966 1 403 8192 23786 . 34 6 1967 1 471 9035 35227 36 6 1 968 1 730 1 051 4 301 62 35 6 1 969 1862 11110 35050 32 5 1 970 2076 1 1 353 38751 29 5 1 971 2041 11147 40701 27 5 1972 1889 1 1 596 42822 27 4 1 973 849 1 2876 52406 25 2 1 974 744 12170 451 72 27 2 1 975 533 1 0792 39551 30 1 1 976 470 1 5493 45657 34 1 1 977 307 1 61 00 471 27 34 1 1978 200 1 671 3 48064 35 * 1 979 NA 1 6084 47384 34 NA Note: NA = not a v a i l a b l e * = i n s i g n i f i c a n t , l e s s than .5% Source: FAO Yearbooks of F o r e s t P r o d u c t s 1972, 1977, 1978, 1979 Timber I n d u s t r i e s Board, 1978 c i t e d by Ferguson and L l o y d , 1980). The development of t i m b e r - p r o c e s s i n g i n d u s t r i e s i n the two s t a t e s would expand the share of M a l a y s i a i n w o r l d t r a d e i n sawnwood and plywood. M a l a y s i a can be e x p e c t e d t o c o n t i n u e t o e x p o r t a s u b s t a n t i a l volume of p r o c e s s e d wood p r o d u c t s , but i t s share w i l l be reduced because of developments i n competing a r e a s , e s p e c i a l l y I n d o n e s i a and the P h i l i p p i n e s . Other competing a r e a s , such as Papua New 48 Tab l e 10 M a l a y s i a ' s share of w o r l d t r a d e i n hardwood sawnwood Year P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a M a l a y s i a World M a l a y s i a % of World P. M a l a y s i a % of World thousand c u b i c metres 1 961 346 557 4291 13 8.1 1962 389 584 4331 1 3 9.0 1 963 488 702 4464 16 11.0 1964 450 716 5303 1 4 8.0 1 965 462 740 5500 1 3 8.0 1 966 479 704 5821 1 2 8.0 1 967 571 850 5707 1 5 10.0 1968 483 798 6340 1 3 8.0 1 969 861 1 1 76 6897 1 7 12.0 1970 1 030 1 357 1 186 19 9.0 1971 1 020 1 308 7234 18 14.0 1 972 1 450 1 761 8398 21 17.0 1 973 1896 21 60 10617 20 18.0 1974 1 790 2008 8957 22 20.0 1 975 1517 1764 801 3 22 19.0 1 976 1715 201 9 11719 1 9 15.0 1 977 2644 291 1 1 1 685 25 23.0 1 978 NA 2787 1 1 969 23 NA 1 979 NA 2856 12707 22 NA Note: NA = not a v a i l a b l e Source: FAO Yearbooks of F o r e s t P r o d u c t s 1972, 1977, 1978, 1979 Guinea, t r o p i c a l A f r i c a and L a t i n A m erica, have l e s s e f f e c t because they produce d i f f e r e n t s p e c i e s of wood. The Southeast A s i a Lumber P r o d u c e r s A s s o c i a t i o n (SEALPA), of which P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a , Sabah, P h i l i p p i n e s and I n d o n e s i a a r e members, has succeeded i n r e s t r i c t i n g c u t - t h r o a t c o m p e t i t i o n and i n s t r e n g t h e n i n g support among member c o u n t r i e s t o reduce l o g e x p o r t s p r o g r e s s i v e l y . The r e s t r i c t i o n of l o g e x p o r t s from the P h i l i p p i n e s s i n c e 1974 ( S a n v i c t o r e s , 1975) has r e s u l t e d i n a • d e c r e a s e i n i t s share of the w o r l d l o g t r a d e , and the r e c e n t anouncement of a s i m i l a r measure from I n d o n e s i a (Ferguson and 49 T a b l e 11 M a l a y s i a ' s share of w o r l d t r a d e i n hardwood plywood Year P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a World M a l a y s i a % P. M a l a y s i a M a l a y s i a of World % of World thousand c u b i c metres 1961 6 10 1502 ! * 1962 5 18 1699 1 * 1 983 5 26 1923 1 * 1 964 6 20 2359 1 * 1 965 1 1 23 2544 1 * 1 966 18 42 2781 2 1 1 967 29 55 3021 2 1 1968 63 91 3832 2 2 1 969 92 1 1 4 4191 3 2 1 970 141 1 67 4477 4 3 1 971 208 246 4981 5 4 1 972 296 341 5733 6 5 1973 41 1 457 6498 7 6 1 974 322 365 4962 7 6 1975 284 318 5224 6 6 1 976 458 493 6191 8 7 1 977 399 438 6198 7 6 1 978 NA 410 71 02 6 NA 1 979 NA 432 7229 6 NA Note: NA = not a v a i l a b l e * = i n s i g n i f i c a n t , l e s s than 0.5% Source: FAO Yearbooks of F o r e s t P r o d u c t s 1972, 1977, 1978, 1979 L l o y d , 1980) would undoubtedly reduce I n d o n e s i a ' s share of the w o r l d t r a d e i n hardwood l o g s . The P h i l i p p i n e s has not been a b l e t o match M a l a y s i a ' s e x p o r t of sawnwood and plywood s i n c e i t s i m p o s i t i o n of l o g - e x p o r t r e s t r i c t i o n s . D i r e c t employment i n f o r e s t h a r v e s t i n g and t i m b e r - b a s e d i n d u s t r i e s amounted t o 52,332 persons i n 1978 (FDPM, 1980a), amounting t o about 1.4 p e r c e n t of the t o t a l employment of 3,823 thousand (Government of M a l a y s i a , 1981). The number of peop l e employed i n 1978 i s more than double the employment f i g u r e s f o r 50 1971 ( T a b l e 11). The t o t a l number of p e o p l e employed i n f o r e s t r y i s h i g h e r i f employment g e n e r a t e d i n o t h e r s e c t o r s by f o r e s t r y a c t i v i t i e s are a l s o c o n s i d e r e d . T a b l e 12 D i r e c t employment i n l o g g i n g , s a w m i l l s , plywood/veneer m i l l s ?.nd o t h e r wood-based i n d u s t r i e s Year Employment 1 971 25,212 1 972 31,696 1 973 35,268 1974 39,213 1975 41,819 1976 51,100 1977 53,008 1978 52,332 Source: FDPM (1980a) 2.6 Summary The main f e a t u r e s of the f o r e s t r y and f o r e s t i n d u s t r i e s were h i g h l i g h t e d . The i m p o r t a n t f o r e s t t y p e , as f a r as t i m b e r p r o d u c t i o n i s c o n c erned, i s the d r y l a n d d i p t e r o c a r p f o r e s t s . Most of the p r o d u c t i v e f o r e s t s , b oth i n the PFE and the S t a t e l a n d F o r e s t s , have been p a r t i a l l y l o g g e d . With the S t a t e l a n d F o r e s t s b e i n g g r a d u a l l y c l e a r e d f o r a g r i c u l t u r a l development, f o r e s t r y a c t i v i t i e s are b e i n g pushed t o the h i l l s where most of the PFE i s l o c a t e d . The f o r e s t s a r e b e i n g managed on a s e l e c t i v e system because the one-cut, Malayan U n i f o r m System which has been employed s u c c e s s f u l l y i n the l o w l a n d f o r e s t s i s not a p p l i c a b l e t o 51 the p o orer s t a n d s i n the h i l l f o r e s t s . The f o r e s t s a re owned by the S t a t e Governments. The s t a t e f o r e s t r y departments manage the f o r e s t s and r e g u l a t e f o r e s t i n d u s t r i e s i n t h e i r r e s p e c t i v e s t a t e s . The f e d e r a l f o r e s t s e r v i c e , FDPM, p r o v i d e s t e c h n i c a l a s s i s t a n c e and t r a i n i n g f a c i l i t i e s t o the s t a t e f o r e s t r y departments. C o o r d i n a t i o n between the f e d e r a l and s t a t e governments i s e f f e c t e d t h r ough the N a t i o n a l F o r e s t r y C o u n c i l and the N a t i o n a l Land C o u n c i l . The f o r e s t i n d u s t r y c o n s i s t s m a i n l y of l o g g i n g and p r i m a r y p r o c e s s i n g of l o g s i n t o sawnwood, plywood and veneer. F u r t h e r p r o c e s s i n g of wood i s not y e t w e l l - d e v e l o p e d . The f o r e s t r y and f o r e s t i n d u s t r i e s s e c t o r c o n t r i b u t e s d i r e c t and i n d i r e c t revenues, e a r n s f o r e i g n exchange t h r o u g h the e x p o r t s of f o r e s t p r o d u c t s , and p r o v i d e s employment. F o r e s t r y i s plagued w i t h many family-owned, u n c o o r d i n a t e d , s m a l l f i r m s , some of which are l o c a t e d f a r from the source of l o g s . The r a p i d but u n c o o r d i n a t e d growth of the i n d u s t r y has caused l o c a l s h o r t a g e s of t i m b e r . Another f e a t u r e of the development of the f o r e s t r y and f o r e s t i n d u s t r i e s s e c t o r i n P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a has been the r a p i d e x p a n s i o n of l o g p r o d u c t i o n . T h i s i s d i s c u s s e d i n the next c h a p t e r , t o g e t h e r w i t h s e v e r a l f o r e c a s t s of t r e n d s i n f u t u r e h a r v e s t s . 52 CHAPTER 3 TIMBER SUPPLY: PAST TRENDS AND FORECASTS OF FUTURE LEVELS 3.1 Pa s t Trends i n Log P r o d u c t i o n and Consumption 3.1.1 Trends i n Log P r o d u c t i o n The p r o d u c t i o n of t i m b e r from the f o r e s t s of P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a showed a g e n e r a l l y i n c r e a s i n g t r e n d i n the l a s t t h r e e decades. T h i s e x p a n sion of l o g output a r o s e from the i n c r e a s i n g demand f o r t r o p i c a l hardwoods i n the i n t e r n a t i o n a l market, e s p e c i a l l y i n the i n d u s t r i a l l y d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s where economic growth was s t r o n g f o l l o w i n g the second w o r l d war (FAO, 1973c). P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a has been a b l e t o compete w i t h advantage on the i n t e r n a t i o n a l market because of i t s e f f i c i e n t e x p o r t - o r i e n t e d i n f r a s t r u c t u r e , i t s p r o x i m i t y t o major t r a d e r o u t e s and i n c r e a s i n g l a b o u r p r o d u c t i v i t y i n the t i m b e r i n d u s t r y . By 1970, the man-day requirement f o r l o g g i n g and l o g t r a n s p o r t a t i o n had been reduced t o o n e - t h i r d of t h a t i n 1950 and i n the s a w m i l l i n g i n d u s t r y the l a b o u r requirement had dropped t o about o n e - h a l f the 1950 l e v e l ( B a h a r u d d i n , 1977a). T a b l e 13 i n d i c a t e s t h a t growth i n l o g p r o d u c t i o n was slow i n the decade from 1950 t o 1959 due t o r e s t r i c t e d l o g g i n g a c t i v i t i e s d u r i n g the Emergency from 1948 t o 1960. Log output i n c r e a s e d by o n l y 42 p e r c e n t d u r i n g the decade. The s i g n i f i c a n t i n c r e a s e i n p r o d u c t i o n i n 1960 c o i n c i d e d with, the end of the Emergency and w i t h an i n c r e a s e i n the p r i c e of sawntimber which s t a r t e d i n the l a t t e r p a r t of 1959 (FAO, 1973c). From 1961 t o 1973 t h e r e has 53 T a b l e 13 Log p r o d u c t i o n from P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a , 1950-1979 Year P r o d u c t i o n Year P r o d u c t i o n thousand c u b i c metres 1950 1 305 1965 3582 1951 1 540 1 966 4233 1952 1 557 1 967 4666 1953 1 436 1 968 5642 1 954 1 458 1969 5927 1955 1 742 1970 7272 1956 1876 1 971 7950 1757 1803 1 972 9917 1958 1811 1 973 1 0774 1959 1852 1974 9587 1960 2500 1 975 8376 1961 2460 1 976 1 0922 1962 2568 1 977 1 0797 1963 2997 1978 1 0464 1 964 331 1 1 979 1 1 558 Source: FAO ( 1 9 7 3 c ) , FDPM (.1980a) been a c o n t i n u o u s and r a p i d i n c r e a s e i n timber p r o d u c t i o n . Log output i n c r e a s e d by about 338 p e r c e n t d u r i n g the 13-year p e r i o d or an average of 26 p e r c e n t per y e a r . From 1973 onwards the l e v e l s of p r o d u c t i o n f l u c t u a t e d because of v i o l e n t changes e x p e r i e n c e d i n the i n t e r n a t i o n a l market f o r wood p r o d u c t s . In 1974 and 1975, l o g output d e c l i n e d because p r i c e s and demands d e c l i n e d i n e x c e s s of 20 p e r c e n t from t h e i r r e c o r d h i g h l e v e l s i n 1972 and 1973 (FAO, 1975c; Government of M a l a y s i a , 1976). An i n c r e a s e i n p r i c e of more than 50 p e r c e n t i n 1976 r e s u l t e d i n i n c r e a s e d p r o d u c t i o n , but the p r o d u c t i o n d e c l i n e d s l i g h t l y i n the next two y e a r s f o l l o w i n g weaker i n t e r n a t i o n a l demands f o r t r o p i c a l l o g s (Government of M a l a y s i a , 1979). Log p r o d u c t i o n i n c r e a s e d a g a i n i n 1979. 54 3.1.2 Sources of Timber Timber has been produced from l o g g i n g i n the PFE as w e l l as i n the S t a t e l a n d F o r e s t s . Each year the s t a t e f o r e s t r y departments open up a r e a s f o r h a r v e s t i n g i n the PFE i n t h e i r r e s p e c t i v e s t a t e s . T h e o r e t i c a l l y the annual coupe or pl a n n e d a n n u a l h a r v e s t a r e a has been d e t e r m i n e d on the b a s i s of a nominal r o t a t i o n of 50 t o 75 y e a r s f o r the l o w l a n d f o r e s t s . The nominal a n n u a l coupe s h o u l d be about 32,000 h e c t a r e s , based on a p r o d u c t i v e PFE of 2.4 m i l l i o n ha (Mok, 1980). In p r a c t i c e , however, the a c t u a l a r e a h a r v e s t e d has not f o l l o w e d the s e t annual h a r v e s t a r e a (FDPM, 1979). P o l i t i c a l p r e s s u r e s , market s i t u a t i o n s and the changing s t a t u s of f o r e s t a r e a s have r e s u l t e d i n l a r g e r a r e a s b e i n g l o g g e d , e s p e c i a l l y s i n c e 1967 when the a c t u a l h a r v e s t a r e a exceeded the a n n u a l coupe. Table 14 shows the i n c r e a s e , i n the annual a r e a opened f o r l o g g i n g from an average of 18,335 ha i n the p e r i o d 1955 t o 1960 to 31,204 ha i n 1961 t o 1970, r e p r e s e n t i n g a 70 p e r c e n t i n c r e a s e . The annual a r e a logged i n the decade of the 70's r a p i d l y i n c r e a s e d t o an average of 101,643 ha, h i g h e r by 126 p e r c e n t than i n the p r e v i o u s decade. The e f f e c t of the FDPM p l a n t o manage the r e m a i n i n g p r i m a r y h i l l f o r e s t s and the logged-over f o r e s t s on a 30- and 55-year c u t t i n g c y c l e s , r e s p e c t i v e l y , was not n o t i c e a b l e u n t i l , p erhaps, 1979. Then, p r o v i s i o n a l f i g u r e s from the FDPM an n u a l r e p o r t showed t h a t the annual h a r v e s t a r e a was 78,249 ha, which i s v e r y c l o s e t o the 78,709 ha s p e c i f i e d i n the p l a n . The S t a t e l a n d F o r e s t s a r e h a r v e s t e d under s h o r t - t e r m 55 T a b l e 14 Areas of PFE and S t a t e l a n d F o r e s t s (SLF) opened up f o r l o g g i n g Year PFE SLF T o t a l ( h e c t a r e s ) 1955 30825 NA NA 1956 1 1076 NA NA 1957 16107 NA NA 1958 1 7480 NA NA 1959 1 3068 NA NA 1 960 21 576 NA NA 1961 26456 NA NA 1962 34006 NA NA 1 963 23930 NA NA 1964 26671 NA NA 1 965 26781 NA NA 1 966 25372 NA NA 1967 321 02 NA NA 1968 40858 NA NA 1 969 42940 NA NA 1970 32924 NA NA 1 971 681 08 248544. 316652 1 972 90295 334189 424484 1973 112529 320191 432720 1974 75396 277865 353261 1975 111564 190540 302104 1976 117745 293043 410788 1 977 122197 239100 361297 1.978 138707 226517 365224 Note: NA = not a v a i l a b l e S ource: FDPM Annual R e p o r t s , FDPM (1980a) agreements ( l i c e n c e s ) awarded each year by the S t a t e E x e c u t i v e C o u n c i l s (FAO, 1973c) or when a c e r t a i n a r e a i s b e i n g c o n v e r t e d t o a g r i c u l t u r e . The l i c e n c e s a r e i s s u e d and a d m i n i s t e r e d by the r e s p e c t i v e s t a t e f o r e s t r y d epartments, but the s e f o r e s t s do not come under the p r o v i s i o n s of the f o r e s t L e g i s l a t i o n and r e c e i v e o n l y m i n i m a l a t t e n t i o n from the s t a f f of the s t a t e f o r e s t r y d epartments. The s t a t e f o r e s t r y departments p l a n the h a r v e s t i n g i n the f o r e s t s t o be c o n v e r t e d a f t e r b e i n g g i v e n a development 56 s c h e d u l e by the agency e x e c u t i n g the. c o n v e r s i o n ( B a h a r u d d i n , 1977a) . Land development f o r a g r i c u l t u r e has been a major emphasis i n the F e d e r a l Government programme f o r development. E n t h u s i a s t i c response from the S t a t e Governments has e n a b l e d the achievement of the annual t a r g e t s of f o r e s t a r e a s t o be c o n v e r t e d t o a g r i c u l t u r e i n the l a s t few decades. Table 15 shows t h a t 84 T a b l e 15 Rates of l o g g i n g on and c o n v e r s i o n of S t a t e l a n d F o r e s t s Y e a r s Area Logged Area C o n v e r t e d t o A g r i c u l t u r e P l a n n e d A c h i e v e d % Achievement (thousand h e c t a r e s / y e a r ) 1971-1975 1976-1980 1981-1985 1986-1990 274 253 79.9 65.3 84 69.6 81.1 116 94.0 .68.0 p e r c e n t of the t a r g e t was a c h i e v e d i n the p e r i o d 1971 t o 1975; i n the subsequent f i v e - y e a r p e r i o d , the a c t u a l a r e a c o n v e r t e d exceeded the t a r g e t . In the decade from 1971 t o 1980, about 73,200 ha of f o r e s t l a n d were c l e a r e d a n n u a l l y t o be p l a n t e d m a i n l y w i t h rubber (Hevea b r a z i l i e n s i s ( W i l l d . ex A. J u s s . ) M.A.) and o i l palm ( E l a e i s g u i n c e n s i s J a c q . ) . The a n n u a l t a r g e t i s h i g h e r , 94,000 ha, f o r the F o u r t h M a l a y s i a P l a n p e r i o d (1981-1985), and 81,000 ha f o r the decade of the 80's. The average r a t e of l o g g i n g i n the S t a t e l a n d F o r e s t s was 57 about 3.7 ti m e s the r a t e of l a n d development f o r a g r i c u l t u r e i n the p e r i o d 1971 t o 1978. In o t h e r words, o n l y about one h e c t a r e i n f o u r logged was a c t u a l l y c o n v e r t e d t o a g r i c u l t u r e . The r e s u l t has been t h a t some a r e a s were h a r v e s t e d , sometimes s e v e r a l t i m e s over (FDPM, 1977a), and l a r g e l o g g e d - o v e r a r e a s were l e f t i d l e . The S e c r e t a r y - g e n e r a l of the M i n i s t r y of A g r i c u l t u r e e s t i m a t e d t h a t about 810,000 ha of l a n d a l i e n a t e d f o r a g r i c u l t u r e i n 1975 were not under c u l t i v a t i o n ( A r s h a d , 1979). The premature opening of a r e a s f o r l o g g i n g under the g u i s e of a g r i c u l t u r a l development i n d i c a t e s the l a c k of c o o r d i n a t i o n between l o g g i n g and l a n d development f o r a g r i c u l t u r e . These f o r e s t s c o n t r i b u t e o n l y a s m a l l p r o p o r t i o n of t h e i r economic p o t e n t i a l and r e p r e s e n t an o u t s t a n d i n g example of poor management (Ker, 1976; FAO, 1971). The d a t a i n Ta b l e 16 i n d i c a t e t h a t the S t a t e l a n d F o r e s t s have been c o n s i s t e n t l y c o n t r i b u t i n g more than o n e - h a l f of the t o t a l p r o d u c t i o n . P u b l i s h e d d a t a i n the FDPM annual r e p o r t s f o r 1955 t o 1971 show t h a t between 54 and 71 p e r c e n t of the t o t a l p r o d u c t i o n came from the S t a t e l a n d F o r e s t s . The p r o d u c t i o n f i g u r e s from 1972 onwards were not broken down i n t o t h e i r r e s p e c t i v e s o u r c e s i n the r e c e n t FDPM annual r e p o r t s . My c a l c u l a t i o n s , however, i n d i c a t e d t h a t i n the p e r i o d 1971 t o 1978 the PFE o n l y c o n t r i b u t e d an average of about 36 p e r c e n t of the t o t a l l o g p r o d u c t i o n . T h i s f i g u r e i s lower than the FAO's (1978) e s t i m a t e t h a t i n 1977 some 45 p e r c e n t of the t o t a l p r o d u c t i o n came from the PFE. The FAO's (1978) h i g h e r e s t i m a t e of y i e l d f o r the PFE acc o u n t e d f o r the h i g h e s t i m a t e . The y i e l d per h e c t a r e f o r the S t a t e l a n d F o r e s t s assumed by the FAO (1978a) i s e s s e n t i a l l y the same. I t i s improbable t h a t the S t a t e l a n d 58 T a b l e 16 Log p r o d u c t i o n from PFE and S t a t e l a n d F o r e s t s Year Permanent F o r e s t E s t a t e S t a t e l a n d F o r e s t s Volume (1000 m 3) % Volume (1000 m 3) % 1 955 624 36 1117 64 1956 719 38 1 1 57 62 1 957 774 43 1 029 57 1 958 743 41 1 068 59 1959 770 42 1 082 58 1960 944 38 1556 62 1 961 1 062 43 1397 57 1 962 1 132 46 1436 54 1 963 1230 41 1767 59 1 964 1 348 41 1964 59 1 965 1 502 42 2081 58 1 966 1 447 34 2786 66 1 967 1821 39 2844 61 1 978 2037 36 3606 64 1 969 1 907 32 4019 62 1 970 21 12 29 51 60 71 1 971 2972 37 4978 63 Note: P r o d u c t i o n f i g u r e s from 1972 onwards were not broken down i n t o t h e i r r e s p e c t i v e s o u r c e s i n the r e c e n t FDPM annual r e p o r t s . Source: FDPM Annual R e p o r t s 1755 t o 1979 F o r e s t s y i e l d e d a h i g h e r p r o p o r t i o n of the t o t a l p r o d u c t i o n i n 1977 because the ar e a of S t a t e l a n d F o r e s t s logged i n t h a t year was lower than average f o r the decade, whereas the ar e a of PFE was h i g h e r than average. My c a l c u l a t i o n of the c o n t r i b u t i o n from each f o r e s t c a t e g o r y i n the p e r i o d 1971 t o 1980 was based on the a r e a s of PFE and S t a t e l a n d F o r e s t s h a r v e s t e d from 1971 t o 1978 (FDPM, 1980a), e s t i m a t e s f o r 1979 and 1980 and an e s t i m a t e of the y i e l d per 59 h e c t a r e from each c a t e g o r y . The e s t i m a t e of the y i e l d per h e c t a r e was d e r i v e d from the t o t a l t i m b e r p r o d u c t i o n , the a r e a s logged and an a s s u m p t i o n 8 t h a t the y i e l d from a h e c t a r e of PFE was 1.5 tim e s the y i e l d from a h e c t a r e of S t a t e l a n d F o r e s t s . The c a l c u l a t e d y i e l d s f o r 1971 t o 1980 was 36.4 m 3/ha f o r the PFE and 24.3 m 3/ha f o r the S t a t e l a n d F o r e s t s . These e s t i m a t e s a r e v e r y c l o s e t o thos e of Chong (1979a), but the y i e l d f o r the PFE was c o n s i d e r a b l y lower than the FAO's (1980) e s t i m a t e . The e s t i m a t e of y i e l d per ha f o r 1971 t o 1980 f o r the PFE i s lower t h a t the average v a l u e s f o r the p r e v i o u s 15 y e a r s . FDPM da t a i n T a b l e s 14 and 16 show t h a t the PFE y i e l d e d , on the average, 41.5 m 3/ha i n the p e r i o d 1955 t o 1960. The v a l u e s i n c r e a s e d t o 45.5 m 3/ha and 53.5 m 3/ha i n the next two f i v e - y e a r p e r i o d s . The r e c e n t r e d u c t i o n i n y i e l d c o u l d be due t o the v e r y s e l e c t i v e n a t u r e of r e c e n t h a r v e s t i n g o p e r a t i o n s and the s h i f t of f o r e s t r y o p e r a t i o n s t o the h i l l s from the v a n i s h i n g l o w l a n d f o r e s t s . The "creaming" n a t u r e of r e c e n t o p e r a t i o n s was c o n f i r m e d by the FFIDP (FAO, 1973a) which c l a s s i f i e d f o r e s t s h a r v e s t e d a f t e r 1966 as " p a r t i a l l y h a r v e s t e d " f o r e s t s . The low volume e x t r a c t e d per u n i t a r e a i n the h i l l f o r e s t s was a n t i c i p a t e d (FAO, 1970) because of the p o o r l y s t o c k e d lower s l o p e s and v a l l e y s . Only the r i d g e s a re r i c h l y s t o c k e d w i t h T h i s assumption i s the average of Chong's (1979) and FAO's (1978) f i g u r e s . Chong (1979) assumed t h a t a h e c t a r e of PFE y i e l d e d 35.0 m3 i n 1978 t o 1980, whereas a h e c t a r e of S t a t e l a n d F o r e s t s y i e l d e d 24.5 m3. FAO (1978a) e s t i m a t e d t h a t the p r e v a i l i n g p r a c t i c e removed 43 m3 and 25 m3 from a h e c t a r e of PFE and S t a t e l a n d F o r e s t s , r e s p e c t i v e l y . The r a t i o s of the y i e l d s from the PFE and S t a t e l a n d F o r e s t s a r e , t h e r e f o r e 1.4:1 and 1.6:1, r e s p e c t i v e l y . These r a t i o s average 1.5:1. 60 Shorea c u r t i s i i . 3.1.3 Log Consumption The b u l k of the l o g p r o d u c t i o n f o r P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a i s p r o c e s s e d i n the l o c a l s a w m i l l s and plywood m i l l s . Only a s m a l l q u a n t i t y has been e x p o r t e d , e s p e c i a l l y s i n c e the r e s t r i c t i o n on l o g e x p o r t i n 1972. T a b l e 17 shows t h a t f o r the 23-year p e r i o d e n d i n g i n 1979, an average of 74 p e r c e n t of the l o g p r o d u c t i o n was p r o c e s s e d l o c a l l y . T h i s p r o p o r t i o n i n c r e a s e d s t e a d i l y from 1972, r e a c h i n g c l o s e t o t o t a l d o m e s t i c p r o c e s s i n g by 1978. In 1979, about 76 p e r c e n t of l o g p r o d u c t i o n was consumed by the s a w m i l l s , 12 p e r c e n t was p r o c e s s e d i n the plywood m i l l s , 2 p e r c e n t was e x p o r t e d and the r e m a i n i n g 11 p e r c e n t was not a c c o u n t e d f o r . The s u b s t a n t i a l d i s c r e p a n c y between the a n n u a l l o g p r o d u c t i o n , on one hand, and the volume which was consumed i n the s a w m i l l s and plywood m i l l s and e x p o r t e d , on the o t h e r , has not been s a t i s f a c t o r i l y e x p l a i n e d . Chong (1979a), n o t i n g t h a t t h i s c o u l d not be a t t r i b u t e d t o s t o c k changes, s t a t e d t h a t the d i s c r e p a n c y i s because t i m b e r was l e f t i n the f o r e s t and not e x t r a c t e d , and a l s o because l o g s were l e f t u n u t i l i z e d i n the m i l l s . P a l o (1975) agreed t h a t the l o g s l e f t as waste i n the f o r e s t may p a r t l y e x p l a i n the s m a l l d i s c r e p a n c i e s b e f o r e 1970, but he s u s p e c t e d the h i g h e r d i s c r e p a n c i e s i n 1970 t o 1972 may be due t o e r r o r s i n the c o m p i l a t i o n of d a t a . Other reasons f o r the d i s c r e p a n c y may be d i f f e r e n c e s i n the method of measurement by the f o r e s t r y departments and the i n d u s t r y , and consumption by o t h e r wood-based i n d u s t r i e s which have not been i n c l u d e d i n the Table 17 U t i l i z a t i o n of logs in Peninsular Malaysia Year (1) (2) (3) to- (5) (6) (7) (8) (1000 rn3) 1957 1805 1368 4 1372 76. 1 271 15. 0 8. 9 1958 1811 1316 4 1320 72. 8 302 16. 7 10. 5 1959 1852 1398 3 1401 75. 6 347 18. 7 5. 7 1960 2500 1919 4 1923 76. 9 432 17. 3 5. 8 1961 2460 1858 6 1864 75. 8 443 18. 0 6. 2 1962 2568 1943 12 1955 76. 1 606 23. 6 0. 3 1963 2997 2170 19 2189 78. 7 656 21 . 9 0. 6 1964 331 1 2369 36 2404 72. 6 783 23. 6 3. 8 1965 3582 2391 74 2466 68. 8 903 25. 2 6. 0 1966 4233 2366 126 2691 63. 6 1222 28. 9 7. 5 1967 4666 2877 160 3037 65. 1 1283 27. 5 7. 4 1968 5642 3574 300 3874 68. 7 1509 26. 7 4. 6 1969 5927 3602 393 3996 67. 4 1620 27. 3 5. 3 1970 7272 4126 504 4630 63. 7 1803 24. 8 1 1 . 5 1971 7950 4174 697 4871 61 . 3 1779 22. 4 16. 3 1972 9917 4936 907 5842 58. 9 1660 16. 7 24. 4 1973 1 0774 6091 1040 7131 66. 2 740 6. 9 26. 9 1974 9587 6510 1014 7524 78. 5 649 6. 8 14. 7 1975 8376 5741 852 6593 78. 7 464 5. 5 15. 8 1976 10922 762 1 1 96 8824 80. 8 404 3. 7 15. 5 1977 10797 8534 1364 9899 91 . 7 267 2. 5 5. 8 1978 1 0464 9023 1306 1032? 98. 7 173 1 . 7 0. 4 1 979 1 1 558 8727 1 344 1 0071 87. 1 260 2. 2 10. 7 Note: (1) log production (2) sawmill consumption (3) plywood/veneer m i l l consumption (4) t o t a l consumption by sawmill and plywood/veneer m i l l s (5) t o t a l consumption by sawmill and plywood/veneer m i l l s as % of t o t a l log production (6) log exports (7) log exports as % of t o t a l log production (8) log volume unaccounted for 62 t o t a l . In 1979, m i l l s which manufacture p e n c i l s , match, p a r t i c l e / c h i p b o a r d s and wood-wool cement s l a b s consumed 0.5 p e r c e n t of the t o t a l l o g p r o d u c t i o n (Annual Report FDPM, 1979). 3.2 Review of P r e v i o u s A n a l y s e s of Timber Supply from the F o r e s t s  of P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a Comprehensive a t t e m p t s t o p l a n t i m b e r p r o d u c t i o n from the f o r e s t s of P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a have been made o n l y i n the l a s t decade. S i n c e the b i r t h ot the M a l a y s i a n F o r e s t r y S e r v i c e i n 1901, the p r a c t i c e of management i n P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a has been r u d i m e n t a r y and c r u d e . F o r e s t r y p r a c t i c e has not changed v e r y much from the i n i t i a l f u n c t i o n s of p r o t e c t i o n of r e s e r v e s , c o l l e c t i o n of r o y a l t i e s , and d e t e c t i o n of i l l i c i t p r a c t i c e s (Mok, 1977). The t r a d i t i o n a l i n s t r u m e n t f o r f o r e s t management i s the d e c a d a l Working P l a n , p r e p a r e d , r e p l e t e w i t h p r e s c r i p t i o n s of annual coupes and s u s t a i n e d y i e l d , f o r each s t a t e i n P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a . The p l a n i s based on a nominal r o t a t i o n of 50 t o 75 y e a r s , and annua l h a r v e s t i n g o p e r a t i o n s a r e s p e c i f i e d on 1/75 t o 1/50 of the t o t a l p r o d u c t i v e f o r e s t a r e a s , removing t r e e s down t o a 38 t o 43 cm (15 t o 17 i n ) d i a m e t e r l i m i t . In p r a c t i c e , these Working P l a n s were o f t e n unimplementable (FDPM, 1979; Mok, 1977), thus s u b s t a n t i a t i n g the u b i q u i t o u s c r i t i c i s m s of the t r a d i t i o n a l Working P l a n s as a p l a n n i n g t o o l ( A r n o l d , 1974a; J o h n s t o n e_t a l • , 1967). The r a p i d i n c r e a s e i n f o r e s t h a r v e s t i n g , i n both the PFE and the S t a t e l a n d . F o r e s t s , t o be c l e a r e d f o r a g r i c u l t u r e , the co n c o m i t a n t waste and i n c r e a s i n g a r e a s of unstocked a r e a s and the d i s p r o p o r t i o n a l e x p a n s i o n of the f o r e s t i n d u s t r i e s , i n both 63 c a p a c i t y and l o c a t i o n , a r e t e s t i m o n i e s of the f a i l u r e of p a s t f o r e s t p l a n n i n g , or put i n an o t h e r way, the l a c k of a p p r o p r i a t e p l a n n i n g . One main reason f o r the l a c k of p l a n n i n g has been the l a c k of i n f o r m a t i o n about the r e s o u r c e s . I t was p o i n t e d out as e a r l y as 1940 t h a t the c a t e g o r i z a t i o n of the f o r e s t s i n t o broad t y p e s such as mangroves, beach, f r e s h w a t e r swamps, l o w l a n d d i p t e r o c a r p and montane f o r e s t s was inadequate f o r e f f i c i e n t f o r e s t management ( G a r f i t t , 1940). The f i r s t s y s t e m a t i c attempt a t q u a n t i f i c a t i o n of the t i m b e r r e s o u r c e s of P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a was the F o r e s t Resources Reconnaissance Survey which began i n 1962. I t was d e s i g n e d t o a s s e s s the e x t e n t , d i s t r i b u t i o n and n a t u r e of the f o r e s t r e s o u r c e and c l a s s i f i e d a l l f o r e s t l a n d i n t o broad f o r e s t t y p e s and p r o d u c t i v i t y c l a s s e s (Mok, 1980). I n f o r m a t i o n g a i n e d from t h i s s u r v ey was used, t o g e t h e r w i t h i n f o r m a t i o n r e g a r d i n g o t h e r n a t u r a l r e s o u r c e s , i n the program of Land C a p a b i l i t y C l a s s i f i c a t i o n which r e p r e s e n t s a s i m p l e r a n k i n g of the n a t u r a l r e s o u r c e p o t e n t i a l s of the l a n d a r e a of P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a (Lee and Panton, 1971). In 1969, a f o r e s t i n v e n t o r y was i n i t i a t e d as an e x t e n s i o n of the F o r e s t Resources Reconnaissance Survey. I t was d e s i g n e d t o p r o v i d e s u f f i c i e n t q u a n t i t a t i v e and q u a l i t a t i v e d a t a w i t h r e s p e c t t o the i n d u s t r i a l p o t e n t i a l of the f o r e s t growing s t o c k (FAO, 1973a). The i n v e n t o r y c o n f i r m e d , among o t h e r s , the importance of the p a r t i a l l y h a r v e s t e d f o r e s t s as a source of t i m b e r . C o n s e q u e n t l y , an i n v e n t o r y of the s e d i s t u r b e d f o r e s t s was s t a r t e d i n 1974 t o o b t a i n more p r e c i s e d a t a f o r f o r e s t r e g e n e r a t i o n and 64 development purposes (FDPM, 1977b). 3.2.1 F o r e c a s t s of F u t u r e Log Flow Schedules The r e s u l t s of t i m b e r s u p p l y a n a l y s e s c a r r i e d out i n the l a s t two decades, shown i n T a b l e 18 and F i g u r e 3, range from a v e r y o p t i m i s t i c a l l y h i g h t o a c o n s e r v a t i v e l y low l e v e l of l o g p r o d u c t i o n , the h i g h e s t l e v e l b e i n g almost f o u r t i m e s the l o w e s t . The f i r s t v i s i b l e attempt t o p l a n the s u p p l y from the f o r e s t s of P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a was the p l a n n i n g e x e r c i s e c a r r i e d out by the F o r e s t r y and F o r e s t I n d u s t r i e s Development P r o j e c t (FFIDP) i n the p e r i o d 1968-1975. I t was sponsored by the U n i t e d N a t i o n s Development Programme (UNDP), the FAO and FDPM. The p r o j e c t was t o a s s i s t the Government of M a l a y s i a i n p l a n n i n g and implementing the i n t e g r a t e d development of the f o r e s t s e c t o r . The p r o j e c t d e v e l o p e d a s i m u l a t i o n model t o p l a n the p r o d u c t i o n of l o g s from the f o r e s t a r e a which was d i v i d e d i n t o square g r i d s w i t h 9.25 km s i d e s . The a n n u a l h a r v e s t a r e a s were c a l c u l a t e d on the b a s i s of a f i x e d c u t t i n g c y c l e ; the l o c a t i o n of the h a r v e s t a r e a s was s e l e c t e d by the s i m u l a t i o n model on the b a s i s of minimum d i s t a n c e from road network ( e x i s t i n g or p l a n n e d ) . The t i m b e r - f l o w s c h e d u l e which was f i n a l l y recommended by the p r o j e c t c a l l e d f o r h i g h annual h a r v e s t l e v e l s of over 14 m i l l i o n m3 u n t i l 1995. From then on, the l e v e l would be about 8.5 m i l l i o n m3 per year i f a g r i c u l t u r a l c o n v e r s i o n were t o c o n t i n u e , or 12.7 m i l l i o n m3 per year i f such c o n v e r s i o n were t o cease i n 1995 (FAO, 1975c). The average would be 10.6 m i l l i o n m 3'per y e a r . An e a r l i e r p l a n (FAO, 1974b) was even more o p t i m i s t i c . The TABLE 18 Various forecasts of log flow schedules, annual harvest areas In the PFE and rates of logging on State Land forests. Planning Harvest volume/year Harvest area/yea r Conversion to agrIculture/year period (ml 11 Ion cu. m. ) (thousand ha. ) (thousand ha.) YBH BHG FA01 FA02 FA03 FDPM YBH BHG FA01 FA02 FA03 FDPM YBH BHG FA01 FA02 FA03 FDPM 1981-1985 8 0 7 4 15 0 14 3 7 .0 7 1 73 7 64 8 170.0 190. 2 101 6 78 5 56.7 56.7 81.081.0 107.7 95.5 1986-1990 8 0 7 1 15 4 14 5 8 .7 6 1 57 5 52 6 170.0 190. 2 101 6 78 5 56.7 48.6 101.281.0 97.4 68 .8* 1991-1995 7 4 6 2 17 3 14 4 8 . 1 5 3 49 0 40 5 153.8 190. 2 101 6 78 5 56.7 48.6 81.0 81.9 1996-20CO 6 9 5 1 17 3 10 6 7 . 1 5 3 90 2 72 8 153.8 190. 2 101 6 78 5 56.7 48.6 52.9 2001-2010 6 1 5 1 17 3 10 6 7 . 1 5 3 86 6 72 8 153.8 190.2 101 6 78 5 8. 1 14.3 2011-2020 5 5 5 1 14 9 10 6 5 .4 5 3 78 5 72 8 153.8 190. 2 101 6 78 5 2.4 2021-2030 5 2 5 1 14 9 10 6 5 .4 5 3 73 7 72 8 153.8 190. 2 101 6 78 5 2.4 2031-2040 5 4 5 1 14 9 10 6 5 .4 5 3 77 7 72 8 153.8 190.2 101 6 78 5 2.4 2041-2050 6 6 5 1 14 9 10 6 5 .4 5 3 94 7 72 8 153.8 190. 2 101 6 78 5 2.4 2051-2060 6 1 5 1 14 9 10 6 5 .4 5 3 86 6 72 8 153.8 190. 2 101 6 78 5 2.4 2061-2070 5 7 5 1 14 9 10 6 5 . 3 5 3 81 7 72 8 153.8 190. 2 101 6 78 5 2071-2080 6 0 5 1 14 9 10 6 5 . 3 5 3 85 8 72 8 153.8 190. 2 101 6 78 5 Average Susta1nable 5 9 5 1 14 9 10 6 5 . 3 5 3 Level Note: YBH : Had1 (1980a) BHG : Baharuddin (1977) FA01: FAO (1974b) FA02: FAO (1975c) FA03: FAO (1978a) FDPM: FDPM Plan The asterisk (*) sign Indicates that the FDPM plan assumed that a l l Stateland forests would be converted by 1987. 66 *—FAO(1974a ) i i i 1 1 1 1 r r 'PLANNING PERIODS IN 4DECRDES — F A O (1975c) Hadid980a) , ^-FAO (1978a) S=-FDPM Plan ^Baha rudd in (1977a) *—FDPM (1977a) Figure 3 Log flow schedules for Peninsular Malaysiai Results of previous analyses 67 a n n u a l h a r v e s t was c a l c u l a t e d t o be 15.0 m i l l i o n m3 i n 1981 and to r e a c h a h i g h of 17.3 m i l l i o n m3 d u r i n g the p e r i o d 1991 t o 2010. From then on, the an n u a l h a r v e s t would l e v e l o f f a t 12.7 m i l l i o n m3 i f a g r i - c o n v e r s i o n c o n t i n u e s and 17.0 m i l l i o n m3 i f the c o n v e r s i o n s t o p s by 1990. The average s u s t a i n e d y i e l d would be 14.9 m i l l i o n m3. As a f o l l o w - u p of FFIDP, another p r o j e c t " F o r e s t Development P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a " (FDPMP) s t a r t e d i n 1975 " t o a s s i s t the Government and s p e c i f i c a l l y t he f o r e s t r y departments, t o d e v e l o p long-range p l a n s f o r the development of the i n d i g e n o u s f o r e s t s , t o ensure t h a t the f o r e s t s a r e r e g e n e r a t e d i n the most e f f e c t i v e and l e a s t c o s t l y manner" (FAO, I978a:7). U s i n g the t r a d i t i o n a l a r e a - c o n t r o l method, a more c o n s e r v a t i v e t i m b e r - f l o w s c h e d u l e was recommended. The s u s t a i n e d y i e l d from the PFE was 5.3 m i l l i o n m3 per y e a r ; the h i g h e r i n i t i a l h a r v e s t volume i n c l u d e d t i m b e r from f o r e s t c o n v e r s i o n t o a g r i c u l t u r e . W i t h the i n c r e a s i n g amount of da t a from the f o r e s t i n v e n t o r i e s and i n s i g h t from the two development p r o j e c t s , s e v e r a l t i m b e r s u p p l y a n a l y s e s were c a r r i e d out by the FDPM and i t s o f f i c e r s . The FDPM (1977a) i n i t s " C r i s i s Paper" drew a b a s e l i n e f o r the f u t u r e management of the f o r e s t s . Based on a permanent p r o d u c t i v e f o r e s t r e s o u r c e base of 3.3 m i l l i o n ha (8.1 m i l l i o n a c r e s ) and a nominal r o t a t i o n of 55 y e a r s , the annual a r e a s opened f o r h a r v e s t i n g were not t o exceed 61 thousand ha (150,000 a c r e s ) . Even under p o l y c y c l i c f e l l i n g systems c u t t i n g c y c l e s not s p e c i f i e d -- the annual a l l o w a b l e c u t s h o u l d not exceed 81 thousand ha (200,000 a c r e s ) , because 800 thousand 68 ha (2 m i l l i o n a c r e s ) of the t o t a l p r o d u c t i v e f o r e s t a r e a a r e e i t h e r immature or y e t t o be r e s t o c k e d . H a r v e s t i n g from the S t a t e l a n d F o r e s t s was t o be reduced t o 57 thousand ha (140,000 a c r e s ) a y e a r , t h i s b e i n g the p r o j e c t e d r a t e of l a n d c o n v e r s i o n t o a g r i c u l t u r e . The s u s t a i n a b l e y i e l d , the y i e l d from the permanent f o r e s t e s t a t e once a l l S t a t e l a n d F o r e s t s have been c o n v e r t e d , was e s t i m a t e d t o be between 4.5 t o 5.0 m i l l i o n m3 (160 t o 175 m i l l i o n f t 3 ) a y e a r . T h i s g u i d e l i n e was l a t e r d e v e l o p e d i n t o a p l a n , d e s c r i b e d by Chong (1979a) and F r e e z a i l l a h (1980), which was recommended t o the N a t i o n a l F o r e s t r y C o u n c i l f o r endorsement. T h i s FDPM p l a n s p e c i f i e d a 30-year c u t t i n g c y c l e f o r the 1.3 m i l l i o n ha (3.1 m i l l i o n ac) of p r i m a r y f o r e s t s and a 55-yea.r c u t t i n g c y c l e f o r the 2.0 m i l l i o n ha (5.0 m i l l i o n ac) of p a r t i a l l y - h a r v e s t e d f o r e s t s . T h i s p l a n t o g e t h e r w i t h a p o l i c y o f . c o n v e r t i n g the S t a t e l a n d F o r e s t s t o a g r i c u l t u r e a t a g r a d u a l l y d e c r e a s i n g r a t e r e s u l t e d i n a l o g - f l o w s c h e d u l e w i t h d e c r e a s i n g h a r v e s t s u n t i l 1987 when the a g r i c u l t u r a l c o n v e r s i o n i s t o be completed. The e n s u i n g " s t e a d y - s t a t e " h a r v e s t was the same as i n the FAO (1978a) p l a n . B aharuddin's (1977) s t u d y , w r i t t e n as a M a s t e r ' s t h e s i s a t the A s i a n I n s t i t u t e of Management, the P h i l i p p i n e s , i s a c r i t i q u e of the FAO (1975c) p l a n . Employing a s i m p l e v o l u m e - c o n t r o l approach, he c a l c u l a t e d a l o g - f l o w s c h e d u l e based on a 45-year c u t t i n g c y c l e , a compromise between FAO's (1975c) 30-year c u t t i n g c y c l e and the t r a d i t i o n a l l y a c c e p t e d nominal r o t a t i o n of 50 t o 70 y e a r s . The t a r g e t , " s t e a d y - s t a t e " h a r v e s t l e v e l was s e t a t 5.1 69 m i l l i o n m3 per y e a r , "a bare minimum r e q u i r e m e n t " t o f e e d the f o r e s t i n d u s t r i e s . The a n n u a l h a r v e s t s d u r i n g the i n i t i a l y e a r s would d e c r e a s e g r a d u a l l y from 7.4 m i l l i o n m3 and l e v e l o f f s t a r t i n g i n 1996. A s u b s t a n t i a l volume i n the i n i t i a l y e a r s would come from the S t a t e l a n d F o r e s t s b e i n g c l e a r e d f o r a g r i c u l t u r e . My c a l c u l a t i o n u s i n g Baharuddin's (1977) y i e l d d a t a and updated e s t i m a t e s of the e x t e n t of the f o r e s t a r e a s , and employing a l i n e a r - p r o g r a m m i n g model, produced a l o g - f l o w s c h e d u l e w i t h h i g h e r a b s o l u t e , h a r v e s t l e v e l s but s i m i l a r t r e n d s t o t h o s e i n Baharuddin's p l a n ( H a d i , 1980a). 3.2.2 S y n t h e s i s of the V a r i o u s F o r e c a s t s The reasons f o r the w i d e - r a n g i n g r e s u l t s of these a n a l y s e s a r e t h e i r d i f f e r i n g assumptions about the f o r e s t r e s o u r c e base, the management system, i n c l u d i n g the l e n g t h of c u t t i n g c y c l e s and h a r v e s t i n g i n t e n s i t y , and hence the h a r v e s t volume per u n i t a r e a , the r a t e of l o g g i n g on and c o n v e r s i o n of S t a t e l a n d F o r e s t s and t i m b e r r e q u i r e m e n t s i n the f u t u r e . The f o r e s t r e s o u r c e base i s perhaps the most imp o r t a n t i n f o r m a t i o n i n p l a n n i n g the use of t h a t r e s o u r c e . The u n c e r t a i n t y i n the s i z e of the f o r e s t a r e a has l e d t o d i f f e r e n c e s i n a r e a assumptions as shown i n T a b l e 19. FAO (1978a) i n d i c a t e d t h a t about 3.31 m i l l i o n ha (8.17 m i l l i o n a c r e s ) of the PFE c o u l d be managed f o r c o n t i n u o u s p r o d u c t i o n of l o g s . The r e m a i n i n g a r e a s were s t e e p h i l l , swamp and o t h e r p r o t e c t i v e a r e a s , and r e s e r v e s f o r s p e c i a l r i g h t s of l o c a l r e s i d e n t s , m i n i n g and stream-bank p r e s e r v a t i o n . S i x t y p e r c e n t of the p r o d u c t i v e a r e a was p r i m a r y f o r e s t ; the remainder had p r e v i o u s l y been logged but 70 T a b l e 19 Assumptions about the s i z e of f o r e s t r e s o u r c e base FAO FDPM Baharuddin Hadi FAO FAO (1978) P l a n (1977) (1980a) (1975c) (1974b) Refer e n c e year 1 975 1 977 1977 1980 1 975 1 970 ( m i l l i o n h e c t a r e s ) T o t a l PFE 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 6.2 6.1 P r o d u c t i v e PFE 3.3 3.3 4.0 4.0 5.1 5.6 Pr imary 2.1 1 .3 1.8 2.8 3.3 3.2 P a r t i a l l y h a r v e s t e d 1 .2 2.0 2.2 * 2.4 2.4 Loggable * 1 .2 1 .2 * * * Immature/ * 0.8 1 .0 1 .3 * * u n s t o c k e d P r o t e c t i v e PFE 1 .9 1 .9 1 . 1 1 . 1 1 . 1 1 .4 Loggable SLF 1.9-2.4 1 .3 1.0 0.9 1 .6 1.4 Note: The a s t e r i s k s i g n (*) i n d i c a t e s t h a t these a r e a s a r e i n c l u d e d i n the p a r t i a l l y h a r v e s t e d f o r e s t s and not broken down i n t o t h e s e c a t e g o r i e s . SLF = S t a t e l a n d F o r e s t s . c o n t a i n e d s u f f i c i e n t t i m b e r t o be r e h a r v e s t e d . The FDPM p l a n (Chong, 1979) agreed w i t h the t o t a l f i g u r e but the p r o p o r t i o n of p r i m a r y and p a r t i a l l y h a r v e s t e d f o r e s t s i s r e v e r s e d . The e a r l i e r FAO (1974b, 1975c) assumptions were on the h i g h s i d e . T h i s i s because the PFE as used by them was d e f i n e d as a r e s i d u a l , a f t e r s u i t a b l e f o r e s t a r e a s have been earmarked f o r c o n v e r s i o n t o a g r i c u l t u r e d u r i n g the p l a n p e r i o d . T h e i r h i g h e r e s t i m a t e s of the t o t a l f o r e s t a r e a and lower p r o j e c t e d a r e a s t o be c l e a r e d f o r a g r i c u l t u r e l e d t o h i g h e s t i m a t e s of the PFE, more than the F o r e s t r y Department i s p l a n n i n g t o m a i n t a i n . The e s t i m a t e s used by Baharuddin (1977a) and Hadi (1980a) were a t t e m p t s t o i n t e g r a t e the 5.2 m i l l i o n ha (12.8 m i l l i o n ac) 71 t o t a l PFE and the i n d i c a t i o n from FAO (1975) t h a t the p r o t e c t i v e component of the PFE c o u l d be r e v i s e d down t o 1.1 m i l l i o n ha (2.8 m i l l i o n a c r e s ) . T h i s r e v i s i o n was, however, not s u p p o r t e d by the l a t e r FAO (1978a) r e - e v a l u a t i o n . The management system assumed i n the a n a l y s e s d e t e r m i n e s the a r e a of the f o r e s t a v a i l a b l e f o r h a r v e s t i n g a n n u a l l y and the volume of t i m b e r which can be h a r v e s t e d from t h a t r e s o u r c e base. The p r o v i s i o n of f l e x i b l e f e l l i n g p r e s c r i p t i o n s i n the s e l e c t i v e management system has l e d t o assumptions of c u t t i n g c y c l e s of d i f f e r i n g l e n g t h s , and v a r y i n g concommitant h a r v e s t i n g i n t e n s i t i e s . These assumptions a r e l i s t e d i n T a b l e 20. The importance of the c h o i c e of c u t t i n g c y c l e has been v e r i f i e d i n Tab l e 20 Assumptions about ti m b e r y i e l d s and the l e n g t h s of c u t t i n g c y c l e s f o r the Permanent F o r e s t E s t a t e P e r i o d FDPM FAO Baharuddin Hadi FAO FAO P l a n (1978) (1977) (1980a) (1974b) (1975c) m 3 per ha 1971-75 - _ - - - - 42.8 -1976-80 35.0 35.0 42.0 52.5 - 56.7 43.9 1981-85 47.2 56.0 42.0 61 .2 61 .2 64. 1 51 .3 1986-90 61.2 77.0 53.0 70.0 70.0 64.2 52.5 1991-95 61.2 77.0 53.0 70.0 70.0 112.5 47.5 1996-2000 61.2 77.0 53.0 70.0 70.0 112.5 75.0 C u t t i n g C y c l e . 30 55 30,50 45 40 40 30 ( y e a r s ) the FFIDP p l a n n i n g e x e r c i s e i n P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a ; any change i n 72 t h i s assumption was found t o a l t e r the s t r a t e g y of f o r e s t development (FAO, 1974b). The e a r l y FAO (1974b) a n a l y s i s employed a c u t t i n g c y c l e of 40 y e a r s , which was l a t e r r e v i s e d down t o 30 y e a r s (FAO, 1975c). T h i s was accompanied by an upward r e v i s i o n of dbh l i m i t . Trees of f u l l y and p a r t l y m a r k e t a b l e s p e c i e s were t o be h a r v e s t e d down t o a dbh of 61 cm (24 i n ) i n the s h o r t e r c u t t i n g c y c l e ; a 46 cm (18 i n ) lower dbh l i m i t was s p e c i f i e d i n the i n i t i a l p l a n . Both p l a n s assumed t h a t , i n the S t a t e l a n d F o r e s t s , a l l m a r k e t a b l e t r e e s g r e a t e r than 46 cm dbh would be h a r v e s t e d . Baharuddin (1977) p r e f e r r e d a l o n g e r c u t t i n g c y c l e of 45 y e a r s , which was " r o u n d e d - o f f " t o 40 y e a r s i n Ha d i ' s (1980a) a n a l y s i s t o f a c i l i t a t e the f o r m u l a t i o n of a l i n e a r programming model w i t h 10-year p l a n n i n g i n t e r v a l s . No c u t t i n g l i m i t s were s p e c i f i e d , but y i e l d s were e s t i m a t e d from p a s t t r e n d s and v a r i o u s assumptions about y i e l d s i n the f u t u r e . FAO (1978a) and the FDPM p l a n proposed two c u t t i n g c y c l e s . FAO (1978a) a l l o c a t e d 80 p e r c e n t of the t o t a l p r o d u c t i v e f o r e s t s t o be managed under a 30-year c u t t i n g c y c l e , and the r e s t under a 50-year c u t t i n g c y c l e . T h i s a l l o c a t i o n r e s u l t e d from f i e l d s u r v e y s which showed t h a t 80 p e r c e n t of the p r i m a r y as w e l l as p a r t i a l l y - h a r v e s t e d f o r e s t s was a d e q u a t e l y s t o c k e d w i t h t r e e s of m a r k e t a b l e s p e c i e s f o r a s e l e c t i o n c u t every 30 y e a r s . In the FDPM p l a n a 30-year c u t t i n g c y c l e was used f o r l i q u i d a t i n g the r e m a i n i n g p r i m a r y f o r e s t s , w i t h a 55-year c u t t i n g c y c l e t o s c h e d u l e the h a r v e s t i n the p a r t i a l l y - h a r v e s t e d f o r e s t s . H a r v e s t i n g i n t e n s i t y , i n terms of lower d i a m e t e r l i m i t , would 73 v a r y from one a r e a t o a n o t h e r depending on the f o r e s t and economic c o n d i t i o n s . As i s t o be e x p e c t e d from a n a l y s e s u s i n g v a r y i n g c u t t i n g c y c l e s , the assumed f u t u r e y i e l d s from a u n i t a r e a of f o r e s t l a n d were e q u a l l y v a r i e d . The f i g u r e s were f u r t h e r c l o u d e d w i t h the assumption i n the FFIDP s t u d i e s t h a t " f o r e s t s l o g g e d i n i t i a l l y a f t e r 1966...[be h a r v e s t e d ] . . . a s a combined s i l v i c u l t u r a l / h a r v e s t i n g o p e r a t i o n " (FAO, 1974b:135; FAO, 1975:12), most p r o b a b l y w i t h lower y i e l d than o r d i n a r y l o g g i n g o p e r a t i o n s . The f i g u r e s shown i n T a b l e 20 show the range of p r o j e c t i o n s of f u t u r e y i e l d . The i n v e r s e r e l a t i o n s h i p between l e n g t h of c u t t i n g c y c l e and y i e l d per a c r e e x i s t s i n most c a s e s , as does the t r e n d of i n c r e a s i n g y i e l d s over t i m e . The r a t e of l o g g i n g on S t a t e l a n d F o r e s t s d e t e r m i n e s the shape of the h a r v e s t stream d u r i n g the f i r s t few decades. The r a t e i n the FDPM p l a n came c l o s e s t t o the a c t u a l r a t e s on the ground. The FAO's (1978) r a t e s are r e a s o n a b l y h i g h but i t s assumption of p r e s c r i b i n g "two s a l v a g e o p e r a t i o n s . . . f o r those a r e a s . . . which a r e s c h e d u l e d f o r c l e a r i n g i n a decade " (p. 37) does not have a h i g h p r o b a b i l i t y of i m p l e m e n t a t i o n . The f i r s t l o g g i n g was t o remove t r e e s down t o a 45 cm (18 i n ) dbh, and a second, s c h e d u l e d j u s t b e f o r e f i n a l f e l l i n g , was t o s a l v a g e a l l e c o n o m i c a l l y u t i l i z a b l e t r e e s . The work l o a d i n s u p e r v i s i n g such o p e r a t i o n s would be c o n s i d e r a b l e , and the s o c i a l , economic and p o l i t i c a l c l i m a t e may not make such a p r o p o s i t i o n v i a b l e . The o t h e r workers assumed lower f i g u r e s , hoping t h a t l o g g i n g r a t e would c o i n c i d e w i t h the r a t e of l a n d development f o r a g r i c u l t u r e . 74 The t a r g e t s f o r l a n d development, as documented i n the f i v e - y e a r development p l a n s , have i n v a r i a b l y been a c h i e v e d . The y i e l d t h a t were assumed from the S t a t e l a n d F o r e s t s a r e g i v e n i n T a b l e 21. The v a l u e s f o r FAO (1974b, 1975c) a n a l y s e s were c a l c u l a t e d by d i v i d i n g the l o g o u t t u r n by the a r e a h a r v e s t e d . In those two FAO a n a l y s e s , y i e l d v a r i e d w i t h f o r e s t t y p e s and r e g i o n s r e p r e s e n t e d by square g r i d s on the map. Ta b l e 21 Assumptions of y i e l d from the S t a t e l a n d F o r e s t s P e r i o d FDPM FAO FAO FAO Baharuddin P l a n (1978) (1974b) (1975) (1977) m 3/ha 1971-75 - 31.5 - — 1976-80 24.5 25.0 43.2 52.7 52.5 1981-85 28.0 25.0 50.7 56.5 61 .2 1986-90 28.0 35.0 44.5 55.2 70.0 1991-95 — 35.0 65.9 70.0 F u t u r e l o g r e q u i r e m e n t s assumed i n the a n a l y s e s are a n o t h e r d e t e r m i n a n t of the l e v e l of h a r v e s t . Baharuddin (1977a) s e t an an n u a l output t a r g e t of 5.1 t o 8.5 m i l l i o n m3 which he c o n s i d e r e d t o be a bare minimum t o m a i n t a i n the f o r e s t i n d u s t r i e s . Most of the p a s t a n a l y s e s d i d not e x p l i c i t l y c o n s i d e r the f u t u r e l o g requirement of the t i m b e r - b a s e d i n d u s t r i e s . The FAO (1974b, 1975c) used the l o g - f l o w s c h e d u l e s as i n p u t d a t a t o p l a n the e x p a n s i o n of the f o r e s t i n d u s t r i e s ; thus the h i g h l e v e l s of h a r v e s t l e d t o a p l a n t o i n c r e a s e the p r o c e s s i n g c a p a c i t y by 5.4 75 m i l l i o n m3 (192 m i l l i o n f t 3 ) of l o g i n t a k e by 1990 (FAO, 1974b). The FAO (1978a) and the FDPM p l a n made comparisons between t h e i r a s s u mptions of f u t u r e p r o c e s s i n g c a p a c i t y and t h e i r p r o j e c t i o n s of l o g f l o w . Any d e f i c i t i n l o g s u p p l y was assumed t o be made up thr o u g h i m p o r t s . My re v i e w of t h e s e past a n a l y s e s ( H a d i , 1980b) p o i n t e d t o the agreement among these f o r e c a s t s t h a t the h a r v e s t l e v e l s , under the assumed, e x t e n s i v e f o r e s t management s i t u a t i o n s , must show a g e n e r a l l y d e c l i n i n g t r e n d . In the i n i t i a l y e a r s the h i g h h a r v e s t volumes would come from the PFE as w e l l as the S t a t e l a n d F o r e s t s . The annual l e v e l would g e n e r a l l y d e c l i n e from the c u r r e n t 10.1 m i l l i o n m3 as the S t a t e l a n d F o r e s t s a re b e i n g withdrawn f o r a g r i c u l t u r a l use, u n t i l i t s t a b i l i z e s a t a ti m b e r p r o d u c t i o n f i g u r e t h a t the PFE c o u l d s u s t a i n . The pa s t a n a l y s e s f u r t h e r agreed t h a t the long-range s u s t a i n e d y i e l d would be between 5.1 and 5.9 m i l l i o n m3 per y e a r . Even the h i g h , l o n g -range l e v e l s c a l c u l a t e d by the FAO (1974b, 1975c) would f a l l w i t h i n t h i s range i f the assumed a r e a of p r o d u c t i v e permanent f o r e s t were reduced to the more r e l i a b l e e s t i m a t e s of the FDPM (1977a), Chong (1979a) and the l a t e r FAO (1978a) FDPMP team. Only the t h r e e p l a n s c o m p i l e d by the FAO (1974b, 1975c, 1978) showed i n c r e a s e s i n h a r v e s t l e v e l s i n the i n i t i a l p l a n n i n g p e r i o d s . These i n c r e a s e s a re m a i n l y the r e s u l t of assuming i n c r e a s i n g y i e l d per h e c t a r e over t i m e . In the FDPMP p l a n (FAO, 1978a) the i n c r e a s e i n the. h a r v e s t from the 1981-1985 t o 1986-1990 p e r i o d was because the y i e l d per h e c t a r e was assumed t o i n c r e a s e , from 1986 onwards, from 42 t o 52 m 3/ha i n the PFE and 76 from 25 t o 35 m 3/ha i n the S t a t e l a n d F o r e s t s . The i n c r e a s e i n the FFIDP f i n a l p l a n (FAO, 1975c) i s s m a l l but the e a r l y (FAO, 1974b) p l a n showed a s u b s t a n t i a l i n c r e a s e between the p e r i o d s 1986-1990 t o 1991-1995 because of v e r y o p t i m i s t i c e s t i m a t e s of s t a n d i n g volume i n the f o r e s t s and of volume growth. These e s t i m a t e s , which were not e l a b o r a t e d i n the FAO (1974b) document, were a p p a r e n t l y too o p t i m i s t i c because the h i g h h a r v e s t l e v e l of 17.3 m i l l i o n m3 per year f o r the p e r i o d 1991 t o 1995 was l a t e r reduced t o 11.5 m i l l i o n m3 i n the l a t e r FAO (1975c) document which compared the two p l a n s . 3.3 Summary Log p r o d u c t i o n has s t e a d i l y i n c r e a s e d i n the l a s t 30 y e a r s . T h i s e x p a n s i o n i n h a r v e s t volume came from both the PFE and the S t a t e l a n d F o r e s t s . S i n c e 1967 the annual r a t e s of h a r v e s t i n the PFE have c o n s i s t e n t l y been g r e a t e r than p l a n n e d annual h a r v e s t a r e a , 32,000 ha, determined on the b a s i s of a nominal r o t a t i o n of 75 y e a r s and a p r o d u c t i v e PFE of 2.4 m i l l i o n ha. Even under the c u t t i n g c y c l e s of 30 y e a r s f o r the p r i m a r y f o r e s t s i n the PFE and 55 y e a r s f o r the p a r t i a l l y h a r v e s t e d f o r e s t s , as s p e c i f i e d i n the FDPM p l a n , the a c t u a l h a r v e s t a r e a s i n 1972, 1973 and from 1975 onwards were s t i l l h i g h e r than the pl a n n e d 78,709 ha per y e a r . F o r e c a s t s of f u t u r e h a r v e s t s have been h i g h l y v a r i a b l e . F u t u r e a n n u a l h a r v e s t s have been e s t i m a t e d t o be as h i g h as 17.3 m i l l i o n m3 and as low as 4.5 m i l l i o n m3. However, assuming t h a t f u t u r e f o r e s t management remains a t the c u r r e n t e x t e n s i v e p r a c t i c e and t h a t the f o r e s t , a r e a c o n s i s t s of 3.3 m i l l i o n ha of p r o d u c t i v e PFE and 1.3 m i l l i o n ha of S t a t e l a n d F o r e s t s , as i n the 77 FDPM p l a n , the v a r i o u s f o r e c a s t s agreed t h a t the h a r v e s t l e v e l would have t o d e c l i n e from the c u r r e n t 10.1 m i l l i o n m3 per year t o a s u s t a i n e d y i e l d of between 5.1 and 5.9 m i l l i o n m3 per y e a r . I f P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a were t o m a i n t a i n i t s f o r e s t i n d u s t r i e s a t i t s c u r r e n t c a p a c i t y , and domestic consumption and e x p o r t s a t or c l o s e t o c u r r e n t l e v e l s , a more comprehensive a n a l y s i s i s needed t o e x p l o r e the p o s s i b i l i t i e s of i n c r e a s i n g f u t u r e t i m b e r p r o d u c t i o n . An a n a l y s i s of the s e p o s s i b i l i t i e s would, i n t u r n , r e q u i r e a "good" p l a n n i n g method. The d e s i r a b l e f e a t u r e s of such a method a r e d i s c u s s e d i n the next c h a p t e r . 78 CHAPTER 4 DESIRABLE FEATURES OF A TIMBER MANAGEMENT PLANNING METHOD D e s i r a b l e f e a t u r e s t h a t a t i m b e r management p l a n n i n g method s h o u l d i n c o r p o r a t e a r e d e s c r i b e d below. These f e a t u r e s form the b a s i s f o r the e v a l u a t i o n of the methods employed i n p r e v i o u s a n a l y s e s of timb e r s u p p l y from P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a . These f e a t u r e s and the sho r t c o m i n g s of the methods used i n the p r e v i o u s a n a l y s e s l e a d t o the c h o i c e of the method a d v o c a t e d i n t h i s t h e s i s . 4.1 D e s i r a b l e F e a t u r e s Some d e s i r a b l e f e a t u r e s of a method t o p l a n t i m b e r supply can be d e r i v e d from the c r i t e r i a d e v e l o p e d by C h a p p e l l e e t a l . , (1976) f o r e v a l u a t i n g a t i m b e r management p l a n n i n g model, and from P e a r s e ' s (1976) recommendation f o r f u r t h e r development of the p l a n n i n g model used by the B r i t i s h Columbia F o r e s t S e r v i c e . The d e s i r a b l e f e a t u r e s a r e : (1) the method s h o u l d be c a p a b l e of a c c e p t i n g p h y s i c a l / b i o l o g i c a l , s o c i o - e c o n o m i c , t e c h n o l o g i c a l and p o l i t i c a l d a t a t h a t bear most i m p o r t a n t l y on the problem; (2) the method s h o u l d be a b l e t o handle both the temporal and s p a t i a l d i m e n s i o n s of r e s o u r c e p r o d u c t i o n and management; (3) the problem f o r m u l a t i o n and da t a a n a l y s i s must be e f f e c t i v e , e f f i c i e n t and r e p r o d u c i b l e ; and (4) the o u t p u t s of the p l a n n i n g model s h o u l d be p r e s e n t e d i n a format t h a t can p r o v i d e ready g u i d e l i n e s t o p l a n n e r s and managers. (5) the model s h o u l d be c a p a b l e of l i n k a g e w i t h a comprehensive m u l t i p l e - u s e p l a n n i n g system. 79 4.1.1 C a p a b i l i t y of A c c e p t i n g R e l e v a n t Data Four broad c l a s s e s of d a t a a r e r e q u i r e d f o r p l a n n i n g t i m b e r s u p p l y : p h y s i c a l / b i o l o g i c a l , s o c i o - e c o n o m i c , t e c h n o l o g i c a l and p o l i t i c a l . P h y s i c a l / b i o l o g i c a l d a t a i n c l u d e the s i z e of f o r e s t a r e a , volume, growing s t o c k s t r u c t u r e , growth and e f f e c t s of f o r e s t o p e r a t i o n s on the r e s i d u a l s t a n d s . The p l a n n i n g method s h o u l d a l s o c o n s i d e r the c o s t s and ex p e c t e d r e t u r n s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h v a r i o u s p r o d u c t i o n a l t e r n a t i v e s ( A r n o l d , 1974a). Data on the c o s t of r e g e n e r a t i o n and maintenance of the f o r e s t s and of l o g g i n g and l o g t r a n s p o r t a t i o n a r e r e q u i r e d . Pearse (1976) suggested t h a t the a n a l y s i s s h o u l d t a k e e x p l i c i t account of c a p i t a l c o s t s of p o s t p o n i n g h a r v e s t and the i n i t i a t i o n of new c r o p s , the c o s t s and r e t u r n s from i n t e n s i v e s i l v i c u l t u r a l p r a c t i c e , the i m p l i c a t i o n s of r o t a t i o n or c u t t i n g c y c l e p e r i o d s , v a r i a t i o n s i n the l e v e l of u t i l i z a t i o n ( h a r v e s t i n g i n t e n s i t y ) and the c a p a c i t y of the i n d u s t r y . R e t u r n s may be i n the form of monetary revenue from the s a l e of l o g s and p r o c e s s e d p r o d u c t s , or i n o t h e r forms such as employment, l a b o u r p r o d u c t i v i t y , c o n t r i b u t i o n t o GNP, f o r e i g n exchange e a r n i n g s , c a p i t a l g e n e r a t i o n , r e g i o n a l development and s t a b i l i t y , and d i s t r i b u t i o n of income. E s t i m a t e s of t r e n d s i n t e c h n o l o g i c a l development a r e r e q u i r e d . The use of improved l o g g i n g methods and p r o c e s s i n g machines, the e v o l u t i o n of more e f f e c t i v e s i l v i c u l t u r a l / management regimes which enhance h i g h e r l o g p r o d u c t i o n , and o t h e r developments would a f f e c t the l e v e l of t i m b e r s u p p l y i n the f u t u r e . 80 P o l i t i c a l f a c t o r s such as the o r g a n i z a t i o n of government f o r e s t s e r v i c e s , the a d m i n i s t r a t i v e b o u n d a r i e s and power s t r u c t u r e , the a v a i l a b i l i t y and q u a l i t y of p o l i c y i n s t r u m e n t s ( p u b l i c i n v e s t m e n t s , r e g u l a t i o n s , and i n c e n t i v e s / d i s i n c e n t i v e s ) and budgets a r e i m p o r t a n t i n t i m b e r s u p p l y p l a n n i n g ( A r n o l d , 1974a, 1974b). Economic a n a l y s i s c e r t a i n l y needs t o be framed w i t h i n the l i m i t s of what i s p o l i t i c a l l y p o s s i b l e . W i t h i n t h i s f e a s i b l e range, economic a n a l y s i s can do much t o c l a r i f y what i s the most e f f i c i e n t and e f f e c t i v e . 4.1.2 Temporal and S p a t i a l Dimensions In the t e m p o r a l d i m e n s i o n , t i m b e r s u p p l y p l a n n i n g s h o u l d have the g o a l of p r o d u c i n g a c c e p t a b l e a p p r o x i m a t i o n s t o g u i d e management i n the next few decades, w i t h a g e n e r a l i n d i c a t i o n of t r e n d s over two or more r o t a t i o n s , such t h a t unexpected d e g r a d a t i o n of the r e s o u r c e s w i l l not become apparent, a t a f u t u r e date ( W i l l i a m s et a l . , 1975; P e a r s e , 1976). I t would be most d e s i r a b l e i f p l a n n i n g c o u l d be c a r r i e d out i n two phases. The s h o r t - t e r m (20 y e a r s or so) s h o u l d be p l a n n e d w i t h s h o r t e r p l a n n i n g i n t e r v a l s , f o r i n s t a n c e every one year f o r the f i r s t f i v e y e a r s and every f i v e y e a r s t h e r e a f t e r . T h i s would enable the d e t e r m i n a t i o n of a r a t h e r p r e c i s e o p t i m a l h a r v e s t r a t e f o r the f o r t h c o m i n g few y e a r s . Long-range p l a n n i n g would s u f f i c e w i t h l o n g e r p e r i o d i c l e n g t h o f , say, 10 t o 20 y e a r s . The B r i t i s h Columbia F o r e s t S e r v i c e employs an I n v e n t o r y A l l o c a t i o n Model t o d e v e l o p and d e s c r i b e the s h o r t - t e r m p r o d u c t i o n g o a l s i n the form of a s i m p l e wood-flow p l a n . T h i s 20-year " l o o k ahead" i s then used t o s e t 10-year p r o d u c t i o n 81 o b j e c t i v e s and the 10-year o b j e c t i v e s a r e , i n t u r n , reviewed e v e r y f i v e y e a r s . The Timber RAM model (Navon, 1971a) i s used t o dete r m i n e the tim b e r p r o j e c t i o n c u r v e over the l o n g run (one t o two r o t a t i o n s ) f o r a Timber Supply Area (TSA), s e t t i n g the c u t t i n g r a t e f o r the f i r s t two decades e q u a l t o t h a t d e v e l o p e d i n the s h o r t - r u n p l a n ( B r i t i s h Columbia F o r e s t S e r v i c e , 1978a, 1978b; S m i t h , 1978). R u s t a g i (1978) a l s o suggested a two-phase " s e q u e n t i a l " approach t o f o r e s t management p l a n n i n g . In most cases i t i s n e i t h e r d e s i r a b l e nor c o m p u t a t i o n a l l y f e a s i b l e t o assume t h a t h a r v e s t i n g o c c u r s each year of the p l a n n i n g p e r i o d . The d e s i r e t o have a more d e t a i l e d p l a n f o r the s h o r t run and s t i l l have a f a i r l y l o n g p l a n n i n g h o r i z o n has l e d some workers t o employ v a r i a b l e - l e n g t h p l a n n i n g i n t e r v a l s . J a c k s o n (1971, 1974), f o r i n s t a n c e , d i v i d e d a 50-year p l a n n i n g h o r i z o n i n t o i n t e r v a l s of 5, 5, 5, 10, 10, and 15 y e a r s . each. The same l e n g t h of p l a n n i n g h o r i z o n was s p l i t up i n t o p l a n n i n g i n t e r v a l s of 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 2, 5,..., 5, and 10 y e a r s , r e s p e c t i v e l y , f o r p l a n n i n g the o p e r a t i o n s on an i n d u s t r i a l f o r e s t i n Southern C h i l e ( B a r r o s and Wei n t r a u b , 1980). Another reason f o r the two-phase approach t o f o r e s t management p l a n n i n g has been put f o r w a r d by L e s l i e (1971) and Teeguarden (1974), among o t h e r s . The s u p p l y a s p e c t of f o r e s t economics can be c o n s i d e r e d i n two segments: the economics of the d i s p o s a l of the mature and/or overmature n a t u r a l f o r e s t s , and the economics of the su p p l y from managed f o r e s t s . The f i r s t a s p e c t f a l l s w i t h i n the s h o r t - t e r m h o r i z o n , w i t h market s i t u a t i o n , s a l e a b l e s p e c i e s , l o g and p r o c e s s e d p r o d u c t s p e c i f i c a t i o n s , the 82 range of c o s t and p r i c e s , and the t r e n d s of consumption known r e l a t i v e l y p r e c i s e l y . The second a s p e c t i s concerned w i t h investment t o e s t a b l i s h and manage the second and subsequent c r o p s . The economics of c o n t i n u o u s p r o d u c t i o n or s u s t a i n e d y i e l d t hus form the c r u x of l o n g - t e r m p l a n n i n g . The s p a t i a l d imension was w e l l i l l u s t r a t e d by H o l l e y (1977). I f p l a n n i n g f o r t i m b e r p r o d u c t i o n were c a r r i e d out f o r a whole a r e a w i t h o u t c o n s i d e r a t i o n of t r a n s p o r t a t i o n c o s t s and economics of s c a l e , we a r e assuming t h a t l o g p r o d u c t i o n a c t i v i t i e s o c c u r on the head of a p i n . I f n a t i o n a l p l a n n i n g f o r f o r e s t commodities were undertaken as an independent s e t of r e g i o n a l p l a n s , we s t i l l assume t h a t a l l economic a c t i v i t y w i t h i n a r e g i o n i s a c c o m p l i s h e d on the head of a p i n ; however, a t l e a s t we have a number of p i n s d o t t i n g the map. I t i s not always n e c e s s a r y t o account f o r the l o c a t i o n of e v e r y h e c t a r e of f o r e s t l a n d and every consumer of wood p r o d u c t s . S i m i l a r f o r e s t a r e a s can be agg r e g a t e d i n t o m e a n i n g f u l g e o g r a p h i c t i m b e r s u p p l y r e g i o n s , which can a l s o be used as tim b e r consumption r e g i o n s . 4.1.3 E f f e c t i v e , E f f i c i e n t and R e p r o d u c i b l e A n a l y s e s E f f e c t i v e n e s s r e f e r s t o the a b i l i t y of the method t o f o r m u l a t e the problems and p e r f o r m a n a l y s e s i n t e n d e d by the a n a l y s t / p l a n n e r . E f f i c i e n c y means the a b i l i t y t o produce the i n t e n d e d r e s u l t s w i t h the l e a s t expense of money and t i m e . Timber management p l a n n i n g s h o u l d be both e f f e c t i v e and e f f i c i e n t because the a n a l y s t i s u s u a l l y f a c e d w i t h a f o r m i d a b l e a r r a y of l o g - p r o d u c t i o n a l t e r n a t i v e s t o c o n s i d e r . For example, i n the p l a n n i n g e x e r c i s e c a r r i e d out by FAO (1974a) i n P e n i n s u l a r 8 3 M a l a y s i a , i t was t h e o r e t i c a l l y p o s s i b l e t o have a p p r o x i m a t e l y 3.2X10 2° log-volume o u t t u r n a l t e r n a t i v e s from c o m b i n a t i o n s of 7 a l t e r n a t i v e c u t t i n g c y c l e s f o r the Permanent F o r e s t E s t a t e , 34 a l t e r n a t i v e p a t t e r n s and l e v e l s of h a r v e s t i n g i n t e n s i t y and 7 r a t e s of l a n d c o n v e r s i o n t o a g r i c u l t u r e . Some 4 m i l l i o n a l t e r n a t i v e s were c o n s i d e r e d r e a l i s t i c . C o n s i d e r a t i o n of a l t e r n a t i v e r a t e s of e s t a b l i s h m e n t of f o r e s t p l a n t a t i o n s , l e v e l s of i m p o r t s and o t h e r s o u r c e s of t i m b e r s u p p l y would g i v e r i s e t o an even h i g h e r number of l o g - s u p p l y a l t e r n a t i v e s . I f the range of a l t e r n a t i v e s i s narrowed by p l a n n e r s / managers a t the v a r i o u s l e v e l s from the f o r e s t t o the n a t i o n , based on a d m i n i s t r a t i v e and f i n a n c i a l i m p l i c a t i o n s of the a l t e r n a t i v e s , the range of a l t e r n a t i v e s may be e r r o n e o u s l y r e s t r i c t e d and d i s t o r t e d a t the time of i t s p r e s e n t a t i o n t o d e c i s i o n - m a k e r s . The b e s t o v e r a l l a l t e r n a t i v e may w e l l be d i s c a r d e d p r e m a t u r e l y and never be c o n s i d e r e d ( A r n o l d , 1974b). However, i f the a n a l y s i s i s programmed so t h a t the c a l c u l a t i o n s can be c a r r i e d out u s i n g a computer, as was the case w i t h the FFIDP p l a n n i n g e x e r c i s e i n P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a , then a much l a r g e r number of a l t e r n a t i v e s can be h a n d l e d than would be the case o t h e r w i s e . R e l e a s e d from the t e d i o u s a s p e c t s of the t e c h n i c a l a n a l y s i s , p l a n n e r s c o u l d devote more energy t o problem-i d e n t i f i c a t i o n , c h o i c e of o p t i o n s , and g e t t i n g much-needed i n f o r m a t i o n on what a c t u a l l y happens i n response t o t h e i r p l a n s (Gould and O'Regan, 1966). R e l i a b l e p l a n n i n g r e q u i r e s t h a t the a n a l y s i s be r e p r o d u c i b l e , by the same or o t h e r w o r k e r s . One of the drawbacks 84 of the t r a d i t i o n a l w o r k i n g p l a n s i s t h a t the p l a n s c o n t a i n l i t t l e or no c r i t i c a l a n a l y s i s of the p o s s i b l e c o u r s e of a c t i o n ( J o h n s t o n e_t a_l. , 1967). One improvement of w o r k i n g - p l a n c o m p i l a t i o n has been the a d d i t i o n of a m i d d l e s e c t i o n which forms a b r i d g e between the f i r s t , d e s c r i p t i v e , and the second, p r e s c r i p t i v e p a r t s of the t r a d i t i o n a l f o r m a t . T h i s m i d d l e s e c t i o n c o n t a i n s c a l c u l a t i o n s , d i s c u s s i o n s and j u s t i f i c a t i o n of the p r e s c r i p t i o n s . A g a i n , f o r l a r g e problems, as u s u a l l y e n c o u n t e r e d i n t i m b e r s u p p l y p l a n n i n g , the use of a computer would e n a b l e f a s t r e p r o d u c t i o n of e a r l i e r c a l c u l a t i o n s . R e p r o d u c i b l e a n a l y s e s a r e i n c r e a s i n g l y needed because f o r e s t r y p l a n n i n g i s a t t r a c t i n g the a t t e n t i o n of not j u s t the f o r e s t r y departments but the whole range of r e s o u r c e a g e n c i e s which a r e i n t e r e s t e d i n the non-timber p r o d u c t s and s e r v i c e s of the f o r e s t s and i n the consequences of a c t i v i t i e s i n the f o r e s t r y s e c t o r . P l a n n i n g a n a l y s e s w i l l have t o be r e p r o d u c e d t o d i s c u s s and e x p l a i n p l a n n i n g problems i n the i n t e r a c t i o n s w i t h these o t h e r r e s o u r c e a g e n c i e s and w i t h the p u b l i c ( W i l l i a m s e_t a l . , 1975). 4.1.4 U s e f u l Format of P l a n n i n g Outputs The r e s u l t s of p l a n n i n g s h o u l d be a r r a n g e d i n a format which the u s e r s -- i n t h i s c a s e , f o r e s t planners/managers -- can e a s i l y comprehend. Graphs, t a b l e s and c o n c i s e d e s c r i p t i o n s a r e much more e f f e c t i v e than computer p r i n t o u t s w i t h columns of numbers w i t h j a r g o n as h e a d i n g s , or voluminous r e p o r t s couched i n economic, s t a t i s t i c a l or e c o l o g i c a l t e r m i n o l o g i e s . These s o p h i s t i c a t e d documents c o u l d be produced as a p p e n d i c e s t o the 85 more c o m p r e h e n s i b l e , c o n c i s e r e p o r t w i t h g r a p h i c a l and t a b u l a r i l l u s t r a t i o n s . The emergence of " r e p o r t g e n e r a t o r s " t o t r a n s l a t e the maze of numbers i n the s o l u t i o n s from computer programmes -i n t o e a s i l y u n d e r s t o o d t a b l e s and graphs i n p l a n n i n g models i s a s t e p i n t h i s d i r e c t i o n . Models such as Timber RAM (Navon, 1971a), MUSYC (Johnson and Jones, 1979), FORPLAN (Johnson e t a l . , 1980) and SAM ( F i e l d et a l . , 1980) a l l have b u i l t - i n r e p o r t w r i t e r s . 4.1.5 L i n k a g e w i t h M u l t i p l e - u s e P l a n n i n g Method With the r e a l i z a t i o n of the c a p a b i l i t y of the f o r e s t s t o produce o t h e r non-timber p r o d u c t s and s e r v i c e s , and the r e s u l t i n g , i n e v i t a b l e t r e n d towards m u l t i p l e use management of f o r e s t a r e a s , a r e s o u r c e management p l a n n i n g model s h o u l d be a b l e t o c o n s i d e r the p r o d u c t i o n of a l l the major p r o d u c t s and s e r v i c e s f o r the f o r e s t s . S e v e r a l such models have been d e v e l o p e d i n the USA; thes e i n c l u d e SAM ( F i e l d et a l . , 1980), FORPLAN (Johnson e t a l . , 1979), Resource A l l o c a t i o n A n a l y s i s (Lundeen, 1975) and the l i n e a r programming model dev e l o p e d by B e n n i n g h o f f and Ohlander (1978). A p l a n n i n g model which has been d e s i g n e d t o a n a l y s e o n l y one r e s o u r c e , a t i m b e r management p l a n n i n g model f o r example, would be of g r e a t e r u t i l i t y i f i t c o u l d be l i n k e d t o , or used i n c o n j u n c t i o n w i t h , models d e a l i n g w i t h o t h e r r e s o u r c e s . Managing f o r a l l f o r e s t p r o d u c t s and s e r v i c e s would then be f a c i l i t a t e d . / 86 4.2 E v a l u a t i o n of the Methods Used i n P r e v i o u s Timber Supply  A n a l y s e s The p i o n e e r i n g e f f o r t s by the FFIDP (FAO, 1974b, 1975c), the FDPMP (FAO, 1978a), FDPM (Chong, 1979a) and Baharuddin (1977a) i n s t a r t i n g the p l a n n i n g of tim b e r s u p p l y from the f o r e s t s of P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a , i n a s i t u a t i o n of l i m i t e d d a t a and t e c h n o l o g y , s h o u l d be applauded. Technology, as used h e r e , i n c l u d e s computer f a c i l i t i e s and a s s o c i a t e d s k i l l s needed t o a n a l y s e and m a n i p u l a t e the d a t a . The poor s i t u a t i o n w i t h r e g a r d t o f o r e s t r y d a t a i n M a l a y s i a i s a p t l y d e s c r i b e d i n a statement made i n 1980 by the D i r e c t o r of F o r e s t Management, FDPM: "the tim b e r r e s o u r c e or growing s t o c k of M a l a y s i a i s l i t e r a l l y anybody's guess!" (Mok, 1980:5). The d e f i c i e n c i e s of the methods which a r e o u t l i n e d i n the f o l l o w i n g pages have t o be seen i n the p e r s p e c t i v e of t h i s u n s a t i s f a c t o r y p l a n n i n g environment. The s i t u a t i o n i s i m p r o v i n g . A f o u n d a t i o n f o r the o r g a n i z a t i o n of f o r e s t r y d a t a i n P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a has been e s t a b l i s h e d by the F o r e s t Resource Reconnaissance Survey c a r r i e d out by the FDPM i n the 1960's and the f o r e s t r y i n v e n t o r y and o t h e r a c t i v i t i e s of the FFIDP and FDPMP. E f f o r t s a r e b e i n g c o n t i n u e d i n the c o l l e c t i o n of r e l e v a n t and t i m e l y d a t a . The d e f i c i e n c i e s of the pa s t a n a l y s e s a r e d e s c r i b e d under t h r e e h e a d i n g s : (1) c o n s i d e r a t i o n of b i o l o g i c a l , economic and p o l i t i c a l / a d m i n i s t r a t i v e f a c t o r s , (2) h a n d l i n g of s p a t i a l and tempor a l d i m e n s i o n s , (3) the p l a n n i n g t o o l s . 87 4.2.1 C o n s i d e r a t i o n of B i o l o g i c a l , Economic and P o l i t i c a l /  A d m i n i s t r a t i v e F a c t o r s These p r e v i o u s a n a l y s e s c o n s i d e r e d o n l y t i m b e r p r o d u c t i o n assuming the c o n t i n u a t i o n of the p r e v a i l i n g f o r e s t r y p r a c t i c e , and i g n o r e d o t h e r b i o l o g i c a l p o t e n t i a l s of the f o r e s t s , and the economic and p o l i t i c a l / a d m i n i s t r a t i v e f a c t o r s which a f f e c t f o r e s t r y a c t i v i t i e s . These a n a l y s e s assumed o n l y one f u t u r e f o r e s t management s i t u a t i o n : the f o r e s t s would be managed on the s e l e c t i v e or p o l y c y c l i c f e l l i n g system and the y i e l d per h e c t a r e would not i n c r e a s e s i g n i f i c a n t l y from the y i e l d under the c u r r e n t , v e r y s e l e c t i v e l o g g i n g p r a c t i c e . P o s s i b l e i n c r e a s e s i n y i e l d r e s u l t i n g from the a c c e p t a n c e , by the i n d u s t r y , of s m a l l e r l o g s and more s p e c i e s , and from i n c r e a s e d i n t e n s i t y of f o r e s t management i n the i n d i g e n o u s f o r e s t s and the e s t a b l i s h m e n t of p l a n t a t i o n s of f a s t - g r o w i n g s p e c i e s were not e x p l i c i t l y e x p l o r e d . The FFIDP s i m u l a t i o n model has the c a p a b i l i t y of c a l c u l a t i n g t i m b e r f l o w a r i s i n g from a wide range of management a l t e r n a t i v e s f o r the i n d i g e n o u s f o r e s t s , but o n l y a l t e r n a t i v e s i n v o l v i n g b i g t r e e s and c u r r e n t l y m a r k e t a b l e s p e c i e s were s i m u l a t e d . A management a l t e r n a t i v e was r e p r e s e n t e d by a s e t of c u t t i n g c y c l e s and c o r r e s p o n d i n g h a r v e s t i n g i n t e n s i t i e s . Seven c u t t i n g c y c l e s c o u l d be s p e c i f i e d : 20, 25, 30, 40, 50, 60 and 70 y e a r s . One of these c u t t i n g c y c l e s may be s p e c i f i e d f o r one of the f o u r 5-year p l a n n i n g p e r i o d s . A t o t a l of 34 h a r v e s t i n g i n t e n s i t i e s were s p e c i f i e d by v a r y i n g the commercial p o t e n t i a l and the dimensions of the t r e e s t o be i n c l u d e d i n the h a r v e s t ( F i g u r e 4 ) . The t r e e s were grouped tJCJ Figure 4 Range of harvesting i n t e n s i t i e s developed by the FFIDP 13 11 19 20 = 25 26 31 32 15 21 27 33 10 11 16 12 17 — 22 23 24 • 1 N 28 29 31 30 Combinations of species group and dbh to be harvested i n each a l t e r n a t i v e - see key -key-o r> o e +> o <r-l vO -sr O E +> O o VO O E O vO over 61 cm F u l l y on the market P a r t l y on the market Not on the market 89 c o m m e r c i a l l y i n t o f u l l y m a r k e t a b l e , p a r t l y m a r k e t a b l e , a n d n o n -m a r k e t a b l e s p e c i e s , a n d d i m e n s i o n a l l y i n t o f o u r d b h c l a s s e s a t i n t e r v a l s o f 15 cm s t a r t i n g w i t h 15 cm. T h e m o d e l i s , t h e r e f o r e , c a p a b l e o f c o n s i d e r i n g t h e w h o l e r a n g e o f m a n a g e m e n t i n t e n s i t i e s f r o m a n y - t r e e h a r v e s t ( I n t e n s i t y 3 4 ) t o a v e r y s e l e c t i v e h a r v e s t o f t r e e s b e l o n g i n g t o t h e f u l l y m a r k e t a b l e s p e c i e s a n d w i t h d b h ' s g r e a t e r t h a n 60 cm ( I n t e n s i t y 1 ) . I t i s a l s o c a p a b l e o f s i m u l a t i n g c u t t i n g c y c l e s r a n g i n g f r o m a s s h o r t a s 20 y e a r s t o a s l o n g a s 70 y e a r s . H o w e v e r , o n l y t r e e s a b o v e 46 cm b e l o n g i n g t o t h e f u l l y a n d p a r t i a l l y m a r k e t a b l e s p e c i e s w e r e c o n s i d e r e d i n t h e 41 m a n a g e m e n t a l t e r n a t i v e s c a l c u l a t e d b y t h e F F I D P ( F A O , 1 9 7 4 b ; 1 9 7 5 c ) . T h e w h o l e r a n g e o f c u t t i n g c y c l e s w a s t r i e d b u t t h e l e n g t h o f e a c h c u t t i n g c y c l e w a s n o t m a t c h e d w i t h t h e c o r r e s p o n d i n g h a r v e s t i n g i n t e n s i t i e s . I t w o u l d h a v e b e e n d e s i r a b l e t o e s t a b l i s h a o n e - t o - o n e r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n t h e t w o v a r i a b l e s . T h i s was n o t p o s s i b l e d u e t o " t h e n e a r l y c o m p l e t e l a c k o f k n o w l e d g e c o n c e r n i n g t h e g r o w t h d y n a m i c s o f t h e t r o p i c a l f o r e s t ( A l e x a n d r a t o s e_t a _ l . , 1 9 7 6 : 2 4 ) . T h e o n l y s i l v i c u l t u r a l o p e r a t i o n s c o n s i d e r e d i n t h e F F I D P a n a l y s i s w e r e t h e g i r d l i n g o f l a r g e u n w a n t e d t r e e s t o s t i m u l a t e t h e g r o w t h o f t h e a d v a n c e d r e g e n e r a t i o n o f t h e m o r e v a l u a b l e s p e c i e s l e f t a f t e r h a r v e s t i n g , a n d p l a n t i n g i n a r e a s d e v o i d o f t h e r e q u i r e d r e g e n e r a t i o n . A s i m i l a r , l o w i n t e n s i t y o f f o r e s t m a n a g e m e n t w a s a s s u m e d i n t h e o t h e r a n a l y s e s . E v e n t h o u g h t h e s e o t h e r a n a l y s e s s p e c i f i e d t h e c u t t i n g c y c l e s e m p l o y e d , t h e y d i d n o t i n d i c a t e t h e c u t t i n g l i m i t s w h i c h w e r e a s s u m e d . T h e s e a n a l y s e s h a v e n o t c o n s i d e r e d a d e q u a t e l y t h e p r o d u c t i o n 90 of f o r e s t p r o d u c t s and s e r v i c e s o t h e r than t i m b e r . The p r o d u c t i o n of some non-timber p r o d u c t s and s e r v i c e s was i m p l i e d by the e x c l u s i o n of the p r o t e c t i v e f o r e s t s i n the p l a n n i n g e x e r c i s e . The P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a f o r e s t p o l i c y s t a t e d t h a t t h e s e f o r e s t s would ensure the sound c l i m a t i c and p h y s i c a l c o n d i t i o n of the c o u n t r y , the s a f e g u a r d i n g of water s u p p l i e s , s o i l f e r t i l i t y and e n v i r o n m e n t a l q u a l i t y and the m i n i m i z a t i o n of damages by f l o o d s and e r o s i o n t o r i v e r s and a g r i c u l t u r a l l a n d . . . , f o r r e c r e a t i o n , e d u c a t i o n , r e s e a r c h and the p r o t e c t i o n of the c o u n t r y ' s f l o r a and fauna ( M a l a y s i a n F o r e s t e r , I980a:2). These a n a l y s e s d i d not t a k e i n t o account the economics of t i m b e r p r o d u c t i o n i n d e t e r m i n i n g the l e v e l of h a r v e s t s ; most a n a l y s t s c a l c u l a t e d the h a r v e s t s on the b a s i s of a r e a r e g u l a t i o n , except f o r Baharuddin (1977a) and Hadi (1980a) who employed the volume r e g u l a t i o n method. The FFIDP d i d c a l c u l a t e s e v e r a l s o c i o -economic p l a n n i n g parameters but these were c a l c u l a t e d o n l y as they a r e a f f e c t e d by the a l r e a d y - d e t e r m i n e d t i m b e r f l o w . The importance of economic o b j e c t i v e s has been s t r e s s e d i n a c l a s s i c a l t r e a t i s e i n y i e l d p l a n n i n g by Grayson and J o h n s t o n (1970). They argued t h a t t h e r e i s l i t t l e l o g i c i n an o b j e c t i v e concerned o n l y w i t h p h y s i c a l y i e l d s w i t h o u t r e g a r d s t o the c o s t s of p r o d u c i n g them, both d i r e c t l y i n terms of a s s o c i a t e d s i l v i c u l t u r a l o p e r a t i o n s and i n d i r e c t l y i n terms of p o t e n t i a l growth forgone through f e l l i n g b e f o r e or a f t e r the s p e c i f i e d r o t a t i o n or f e l l i n g c y c l e . The r e p o r t s of the p a s t a n a l y s e s of t i m b e r s u p p l y r e c o g n i z e d t h a t the p o l i t i c a l and i n s t i t u t i o n a l s t r u c t u r e of P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a r e q u i r e s t h a t t i m b e r p r o d u c t i o n be p l a n n e d r e g i o n by 91 r e g i o n . The i n f l u e n c e of the FDPM on the management of the f o r e s t s depends l a r g e l y on the consensus of the S t a t e Governments which have c o n s t i t u t i o n a l a u t h o r i t y over f o r e s t r y a c t i v i t i e s i n t h e i r r e s p e c t i v e t e r r i t o r i e s . However, t h e r e s u l t s of most a n a l y s e s were o n l y p r e s e n t e d f o r the whole p e n i n s u l a . Only the FDPMP p l a n (FAO, 1978a) i n c l u d e d l o g p r o d u c t i o n l e v e l s f o r each S t a t e ; i n an e x e r c i s e u s i n g s t r i c t a r e a c o n t r o l and u n i f o r m y i e l d from each h e c t a r e of permanent f o r e s t , the r e s u l t can be d i s a g g r e g r a t e d e a s i l y i n terms of s t a t e s . The e a r l y FFIDP p l a n . (FAO, 1974b) r e p o r t e d the a r e a s of PFE and S t a t e l a n d F o r e s t s i n each S t a t e t o be h a r v e s t e d d u r i n g the 20-year p l a n n i n g h o r i z o n , but t h i s i n f o r m a t i o n does not p e r m i t the d i s a g g r e g a t i o n of h a r v e s t l e v e l s i n terms of s t a t e s because the y i e l d per h e c t a r e , which v a r i e s w i t h l o c a t i o n , was not g i v e n . The FFIDP team recommended t h a t f o r e s t development p l a n s a t the S t a t e l e v e l be f o r m u l a t e d i n the p r o c e s s of i m p l e m e n t a t i o n of the s e l e c t e d , p e n i n s u l a - w i d e s t r a t e g y (FAO, 1974b). A p l a n f o r the S t a t e of Pahang was c o m p i l e d u s i n g the s i m u l a t i o n model which was used i n the c o m p i l a t i o n of the p e n i n s u l a wide s t r a t e g y (FAO, 1974d). 4.2.2 H a n d l i n g of S p a t i a l and Temporal Dimensions A l l the a n a l y s e s have succeeded i n p o r t r a y i n g the tempor a l dimension of l o g p r o d u c t i o n , even though the r e s u l t i n g t i m b e r -f l o w s c h e d u l e s have been p r e s e n t e d o n l y f o r one management s i t u a t i o n and f o r the whole p e n i n s u l a . They p r o v i d e d an i n d i c a t i o n t h a t i f f o r e s t management were t o remain a t the low i n t e n s i t y which was assumed, the h a r v e s t l e v e l s would d e c l i n e i n 92 the next two decades t o a l e v e l about o n e - h a l f of the c u r r e n t p r o d u c t i o n . An attempt t o model the s p a t i a l d imension of l o g p r o d u c t i o n i s found i n the FFIDP s i m u l a t i o n model, where t i m b e r i s seen as o r i g i n a t i n g from l o c a t i o n a l u n i t s of square g r i d s . The economics of l o c a t i o n and t r a n s p o r t a t i o n were approximated by s e l e c t i n g the g r i d s t o be h a r v e s t e d based on minimum d i s t a n c e from road network. However, t h i s approach has been c r i t i c i z e d i n t h a t the g r i d a r e a s s e l e c t e d f o r l o g g i n g w i t h i n any p e r i o d w i l l t end t o form c l u s t e r s , r e s u l t i n g i n e n t i r e r e g i o n s b e i n g l o g g e d w i t h i n one or two 5-year p e r i o d s and c a u s i n g such r e g i o n s ' t o e x p e r i e n c e c y c l i c a l and i r r e g u l a r p a t t e r n s of t i m b e r p r o d u c t i o n . A l t e r n a t i v e methods employing the c r i t e r i a of d i s t a n c e per volume of t i m b e r c o n t e n t ( i . e . , k i l o m e t r e per c u b i c metre) and minimum economic o u t t u r n per h e c t a r e were suggested ( A l e x a n d r a t o s et. a_l. , 1976). In the o t h e r a n a l y s e s , f o r e s t a r e a s were a g g r e g a t e d i n t o broad c l a s s e s i r r e s p e c t i v e of t h e i r g e o g r a p h i c a l l o c a t i o n s . 4.2.3 The P l a n n i n g T o o l s The t o o l s used i n t h e s e a n a l y s e s ranged from v e r y s i m p l e , manual, a r e a - c o n t r o l c a l c u l a t i o n s t o a s o p h i s t i c a t e d computer s i m u l a t i o n program. The manual a r e a - r e g u l a t i o n c a l c u l a t i o n s are e f f i c i e n t and e a s i l y r e p r o d u c i b l e , but may not be e f f e c t i v e i n p r o d u c i n g the most d e s i r a b l e l o g - f l o w s c h e d u l e . These a r e a -c o n t r o l methods s p e c i f i e d e q u a l or n e a r l y e q u a l a r e a s of the PFE t o be h a r v e s t e d each y e a r . T h i s method of p l a n n i n g , which p u r p o r t s t o produce s u s t a i n e d y i e l d , has been c r i t i c i z e d by f o r e s t e c o n o m i s t s f o r i t s n e g l e c t of economic and o t h e r f a c t o r s 93 ( S m i t h , 1962; H a l e y , 1966; N a u t i y a l , 1967; and Waggener, 1969). Most of the a l l e g e d b e n e f i t s from s u s t a i n e d y i e l d c o u l d be o b t a i n e d from c o n t i n u o u s p r o d u c t i o n of t i m b e r ( H a l e y , 1966). An a l t e r n a t i v e t o s u s t a i n e d y i e l d has been proposed by Gould (1962), Smith (1963a) and Duerr (1966). They urged t h a t f o r e s t e r s p l a n f l e x i b l y f o r b a l a n c e d f o r e s t r y , t o h o l d and expand on the share of the market. Improved t e c h n o l o g y must be matched w i t h new c o n c e p t s of management ( S m i t h , 1963a). I t i s no l o n g e r s u f f i c i e n t t o c a l c u l a t e annual h a r v e s t s u s i n g s i m p l e f o r m u l a s ( B e u t e r , 1974). The FFIDP s i m u l a t i o n model i s an e f f i c i e n t t o o l t o s e l e c t g r i d a r e a s t o f i l l up the quota of a r e a s t o be h a r v e s t e d per p e r i o d . The model, however, does not c a l c u l a t e the optimum l e v e l of h a r v e s t , the p e r i o d i c h a r v e s t a r e a b e i n g c a l c u l a t e d on an a r e a - c o n t r o l b a s i s . The d e v e l o p e r s of the model, i n h i n d s i g h t , remarked t h a t i t would have been more d e s i r a b l e t o use an o p t i m i z a t i o n program (FAO, 1974b). The d e a t h blow t o the FAO s i m u l a t i o n model has been the i n a b i l i t y of s u c c e e d i n g workers t o reproduce or r e v i s e the r e s u l t s which were p r e s e n t e d t o the government. The program c o u l d not be run because the PL/1 c o m p i l e r at the computing c e n t r e where the program has been o p e r a t e d had been phased out and some r e c o r d s c o n t a i n i n g assumptions and manual c a l c u l a t i o n s were m i s s i n g (FDPM, Economic U n i t , 1977). 94 4.2.4 Summary of Major L i m i t a t i o n s By c o n s i d e r i n g o n l y the p r o d u c t i o n of sawlogs and p e e l e r l o g s from e x t e n s i v e management of the i n d i g e n o u s f o r e s t s , the p r e v i o u s a n a l y s e s have not a d e q u a t e l y e x p l o r e d the f u l l range of b i o l o g i c a l and t e c h n i c a l p o s s i b i l i t i e s of the f o r e s t s . Other s i l v i c u l t u r a l o p e r a t i o n s and f o r e s t p r o d u c t s were i g n o r e d . T h e i r use of the a r e a - c o n t r o l method p r e c l u d e s the c a l c u l a t i o n of ti m b e r s u p p l y s c h e d u l e s which a r e e c o n o m i c a l l y e f f i c i e n t , or which a r e a c c e p t a b l e t o the p o l i t i c i a n s and the i n d u s t r y . The c o n t i n u e d r e l i a n c e on hand c a l c u l a t i o n s w i l l prove u n w i e l d y as more and more d a t a become a v a i l a b l e . T h e i r r e g u l a t i o n of the h a r v e s t on the b a s i s of the whole p e n i n s u l a i g n o r e s the a d m i n i s t r a t i v e and p o l i t i c a l s t r u c t u r e i n which the S t a t e Governments have the a u t h o r i t y over f o r e s t management. T h i s method of f o r e s t r e g u l a t i o n a l s o does not p e r m i t the i n c o r p o r a t i o n of the s p a t i a l d i m e n s i o n of f o r e s t management. 4.3 The Recommended Methods of P l a n n i n g T h i s t h e s i s p r e s e n t s improved methods of p l a n n i n g t i m b e r s u p p l y f o r P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a which s h o u l d remedy the t h r e e major s h o r t c o m i n g s i n p r e v i o u s a n a l y s e s and the c u r r e n t p l a n n i n g system. The improved methods c o n s i d e r the f u l l range of t i m b e r u t i l i z a t i o n and f o r e s t management p o s s i b i l i t i e s f o r P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a . In a d d i t i o n , the t i m b e r s u p p l y s h o u l d be a n a l y s e d by s t a t e s t o i n v o l v e the h i t h e r t o n e g l e c t e d s t a t e governments which own and manage the f o r e s t s w i t h i n t h e i r t e r r i t o r i e s . L i n e a r programming (Timber RAM) i s used t o o p t i m i z e t i m b e r s u p p l y , as a s u p e r i o r a l t e r n a t i v e t o the t r a d i t i o n a l a r e a c o n t r o l . 95 The a n a l y s e s of timber s u p p l y c o r r e s p o n d i n g t o the v a r i o u s , p o s s i b i l i t i e s a r e n e c e s s a r y t o i n d i c a t e the g a i n s i n t i m b e r h a r v e s t from improvements i n t i m b e r u t i l i z a t i o n and management. F o r e s t r y i n P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a w i l l have t o c o n s i d e r t h e s e p o s s i b i l i t i e s because the c u r r e n t p r a c t i c e of e x t e n s i v e f o r e s t management and u s e f u l l o g g i n g p r a c t i c e s would not be a b l e t o s u p p l y the f u t u r e expanding t i m b e r r e q u i r e m e n t s of the c o u n t r y , and t h e r e would be no s u r p l u s f o r e x p o r t . More p r o g r e s s i v e f o r e s t r y i s needed. The v a r i o u s p o s s i b i l i t i e s of t i m b e r u t i l i z a t i o n and f o r e s t management ar e a n a l y s e d f o r the whole of P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a because d a t a c o n c e r n i n g y i e l d s and e s t i m a t e s of a r e a s s u i t a b l e f o r e x t e n s i v e management and f o r e s t p l a n t a t i o n s a r e a v a i l a b l e o n l y f o r the whole p e n i n s u l a . The assumptions f o r the v a r i o u s s c e n a r i o s are d i s c u s s e d i n Chapter 6 and the t i m b e r s u p p l y a n a l y s e s p r e s e n t e d i n Chapter 7. P l a n n i n g t i m b e r s u p p l y s t a t e by s t a t e i s a d v o c a t e d because i t i s the most e f f e c t i v e method of p l a n n i n g , c o n s i d e r i n g the p o l i t i c a l / a d m i n i s t r a t i v e s t r u c t u r e and the v a r i a b l e f o r e s t r y c o n d i t i o n s i n P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a . P l a n n i n g f o r each s t a t e or group of s t a t e s p e r m i t s the p l a n n e r s t o s o l i c i t p o l i t i c a l g uidance from the s t a t e governments i n the p r o c e s s of p l a n n i n g and, c o n s e q u e n t l y , to get p o l i t i c a l support t o implement the p l a n . T h i s method of p l a n n i n g a l s o e n a b l e s l o c a l f o r e s t r y and o t h e r d a t a t o be i n c o r p o r a t e d e a s i l y , thus i n c r e a s i n g the a c c u r a c y of the p l a n and c o n f i d e n c e i n i t . The v a r i a b i l i t y of the s i t u a t i o n s of f o r e s t r y and f o r e s t i n d u s t r i e s i n the v a r i o u s s t a t e s r e q u i r e s t h a t l o c a l d a t a , r a t h e r than p e n i n s u l a - w i d e a v e r a g e s , be used i n p l a n n i n g . P l a n n i n g s t a t e by s t a t e 96 f a c i l i t a t e s the achievement of the g o a l t h a t the ti m b e r i n d u s t r y i n each s t a t e be s e l f - s u f f i c i e n t i n t i m b e r and t h e n a t i o n a l g o a l of r e g i o n a l development. The r a t i o n a l e s f o r s t a t e p l a n n i n g a r e e l a b o r a t e d i n Chapter 8, which p r e s e n t s the a p p l i c a t i o n of Timber RAM t o p l a n n i n g by r e g i o n s , a r e g i o n b e i n g a s t a t e or a group of s t a t e s . The c h a p t e r c o n s i d e r s o n l y one s c e n a r i o c o r r e s p o n d i n g t o e x t e n s i v e management of the mixed t r o p i c a l f o r e s t s and assumes y i e l d s t o be e q u a l t o the net merchantable volume i n the f o r e s t of average s i t e . There i s i n s u f f i c i e n t d a t a about the f o r e s t a r e a and ti m b e r y i e l d s i n each r e g i o n t o a n a l y s e the o t h e r p o s s i b i l i t i e s by s t a t e s or r e g i o n s . L i n e a r programming was s e l e c t e d because i t p e r m i t s r a p i d c a l c u l a t i o n of optimum t i m b e r h a r v e s t s c h e d u l e s f o r a g i v e n s e t of a s s u m p t i o n s . The c h o i c e of an o p t i m i z i n g model i s c o n s i s t e n t w i t h the recommendations by FAO (1974a) from e x p e r i e n c e d u r i n g the f o r e s t r y and f o r e s t i n d u s t r i e s development p r o j e c t (1968-1975) i n M a l a y s i a , and by S a l l e h (1977) i n h i s Ph.D. t h e s i s . Use of the Timber RAM m a t r i x g e n e r a t o r f a c i l i t a t e s the o t h e r w i s e l a b o r i o u s t a s k of f o r m u l a t i n g the l i n e a r - p r o g r a m m i n g problem m a t r i x . The advantages of u s i n g l i n e a r programming, p a r t i c u l a r l y Timber RAM, a r e p r e s e n t e d i n the next c h a p t e r . 97 CHAPTER 5 TIMBER RESOURCE ALLOCATION METHOD (TIMBER RAM) 5.1 Timber RAM Package Timber RAM i s a c o m p u t e r i z e d method f o r g e n e r a t i n g l o n g -range f o r e s t management p l a n s , d e v e l o p e d by Navon and h i s a s s o c i a t e s a t the P a c i f i c Southwest F o r e s t and Range Experiment S t a t i o n , F o r e s t S e r v i c e , U n i t e d S t a t e s Department of A g r i c u l t u r e , B e r k e l e y , C a l i f o r n i a . T h i s computer program package was f i r s t announced and d e s c r i b e d by Hennes et a l . (1971) as a more p o w e r f u l a l t e r n a t i v e t o the t r a d i t i o n a l f o r m u l a s and area-volume check t e c h n i q u e s f o r f o r e s t c o n t r o l and r e g u l a t i o n . A g e n e r a l d e s c r i p t i o n of the approach and o p t i o n s a v a i l a b l e i n the package i s p r o v i d e d by Navon (1971a). S p e c i f i c d e t a i l s a r e documented i n the Smokey F o r e s t Case Study (Navon, 1971b), the F o r e s t e r ' s Guide (Navon, 1971c; 1975), the M a t h e m a t i c a l Programmer's Guide ( N a z a r e t h , 1971) and the Computer Programmer's guide ( I r v i n g , 1971 ) . The Timber RAM computer package c o n s i s t s of a m a t r i x g e n e r a t o r and a r e p o r t w r i t e r . .The m a t r i x g e n e r a t o r reads d a t a t a b l e s and p o l i c y i n f o r m a t i o n s u p p l i e d by the u s e r , and g e n e r a t e s a l i n e a r programming (LP) problem m a t r i x and i n p u t d a t a f o r the r e p o r t w r i t e r . The problem m a t r i x can then be s o l v e d by any of the commercial LP codes. The r e p o r t w r i t e r reads the i n p u t d a t a g e n e r a t e d by the m a t r i x g e n e r a t o r and the s o l u t i o n produced by the LP code, and t r a n s l a t e s s p e c i f i c i n f o r m a t i o n from the LP s o l u t i o n i n t o t i m b e r h a r v e s t s c h e d u l e s , r e p o r t s and graphs which 9 8 are more e a s i l y u n d e r s t o o d by f o r e s t managers. 5.2 P l a n n i n g w i t h Timber RAM P l a n n i n g w i t h Timber RAM s t a r t s w i t h the g e n e r a t i o n of the LP problem m a t r i x f o l l o w e d by s o l v i n g the LP problem. Then, any of the r e p o r t s may be r e q u e s t e d , as needed. 5.2.1 M a t r i x G e n e r a t i o n 5.2.1.1 Input Data The i n p u t d a t a which a r e r e q u i r e d t o ge n e r a t e the LP problem m a t r i x a r e e n t e r e d i n a s p e c i a l l y d e s i g n e d format d e s c r i b e d by Navon (1971c, 1975). The major items a re f o r e s t a r e a and age, h a r v e s t y i e l d s and c o s t s , and f o r e s t management p o l i c y i n f o r m a t i o n . The f o r e s t a r e a t o be p l a n n e d i s d i v i d e d i n t o t i m b e r c l a s s e s or management u n i t s , each u n i t c o n s i s t i n g of f o r e s t s t a n d s which are s u f f i c i e n t l y s i m i l a r i n t h e i r economics and s i l v i c u l t u r e t o be managed i n an i d e n t i c a l manner. The a r e a a v a i l a b l e f o r management i n a p a r t i c u l a r p e r i o d can be l i m i t e d by d e f i n i n g the per c e n t a g e of the a r e a which i s a c c e s s i b l e d u r i n g the p e r i o d . Such c o n s t r a i n t s a r e c a l l e d a c c e s s i b i l i t y  c o n s t r a i n t s . S c h e d u l es of h a r v e s t volume per h e c t a r e a r e s p e c i f i e d f o r each management u n i t by a s s i g n i n g each management u n i t t o a volume c l a s s . S i m i l a r l y , s c h e d u l e s of revenues and c o s t s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h the h a r v e s t a r e d e f i n e d f o r each economic c l a s s c o r r e s p o n d i n g t o each management u n i t . S e v e r a l management u n i t s may be a s s i g n e d the same volume c l a s s and economic c l a s s . 99 Management p o l i c y i n f o r m a t i o n t h a t i s r e q u i r e d i n c l u d e s the p l a n n i n g h o r i z o n , the o b j e c t i v e s of management, p e r i o d i c c o n s t r a i n t s , management a l t e r n a t i v e s , and h a r v e s t and r e g u l a t i o n c o n s t r a i n t s . The p l a n n i n g h o r i z o n i s d e f i n e d here as the time p e r i o d t o be i n c l u d e d i n the p l a n . Timber RAM p e r m i t s up t o 35 p l a n n i n g p e r i o d s or i n t e r v a l s . In the 1972 v e r s i o n each p e r i o d i s a decade l o n g , except f o r the f i r s t p e r i o d which c o u l d be s p l i t i n t o two f i v e - y e a r p e r i o d s . The 1975 v e r s i o n a l l o w s any number of y e a r s t o be i n c l u d e d i n the b a s i c p e r i o d , and the h a l f - l e n g t h o p t i o n a l l o w s the f i r s t two p e r i o d s t o be h a l f the b a s i c p e r i o d l e n g t h . F i v e t y p e s of o b j e c t i v e s can be s p e c i f i e d i n Timber RAM. However, o n l y one can be s p e c i f i e d as the o b j e c t i v e f u n c t i o n i n any one run; the r e m a i n i n g o b j e c t i v e s a r e f o r m u l a t e d as unbounded c o n s t r a i n t s . These a l t e r n a t i v e o b j e c t i v e s i n c l u d e the m a x i m i z a t i o n of h a r v e s t volume, g r o s s revenue 1, g r o s s revenue 2, and net revenue, and the m i n i m i z a t i o n of c o s t s . The two t y p e s of g r o s s revenues g i v e g r e a t e r f l e x i b i l i t y ; t hese revenues can be d e f i n e d i n any way by the u s e r . Each of these o b j e c t i v e s can be s p e c i f i e d f o r up t o s i x time frames and the economic o b j e c t i v e s can be d i s c o u n t e d a t up t o seven r a t e s , g i v i n g a maximum of 174 a l t e r n a t i v e o b j e c t i v e s . P e r i o d i c c o n s t r a i n t s s p e c i f y lower bounds on the volume of the i n p u t s and o u t p u t s used as i n d i c e s of performance ( c o s t , revenue and t i m b e r volume) as w e l l as upper bounds on the ar e a t o be p l a n t e d w i t h g e n e t i c a l l y improved- s t o c k . Each of the s e 100 c o n s t r a i n t s may be d e f i n e d f o r a number of i n t e r v a l s w i t h i n the p l a n n i n g h o r i z o n . S e v e r a l management a l t e r n a t i v e s can be s p e c i f i e d by v a r y i n g the method of h a r v e s t , the time p e r i o d w i t h i n which the e x i s t i n g s t a n d s a r e t o be l i q u i d a t e d and bare l a n d s a r e t o be p l a n t e d , the r o t a t i o n l e n g t h s or c u t t i n g c y c l e s f o r each management u n i t and the sequence of o t h e r s i l v i c u l t u r a l t r e a t m e n t s such as t h i n n i n g s . The method of h a r v e s t may be c l e a r c u t t i n g o n l y or h a r v e s t c u t t i n g w i t h a s e r i e s of i n t e r m e d i a t e h a r v e s t s , f o l l o w e d by r e g e n e r a t i o n w i t h r e g u l a r or g e n e t i c a l l y improved s t o c k . The a c t i v i t i e s s p e c i f i e d f o r a g i v e n management u n i t can r e p r e s e n t d i f f e r e n t sequences of s i l v i c u l t u r a l t r e a t m e n t s as d e t e r m i n e d by the r o t a t i o n s or c u t t i n g c y c l e s s p e c i f i e d . These a c t i v i t i e s can a l s o r e p r e s e n t d i f f e r e n t s c h e d u l i n g s of the same sequence of t r e a t m e n t s as det e r m i n e d by the time the e x i s t i n g s t a n d s i n each management u n i t a r e f i r s t h a r v e s t e d or the time the management u n i t s , i f i n i t i a l l y u n s t o c k e d , a r e p l a n t e d . S e v e r a l r o t a t i o n s or c u t t i n g c y c l e s may be s p e c i f i e d . The 1972 v e r s i o n a l l o w s two r o t a t i o n s and the 1975 v e r s i o n p e r m i t s up t o f o u r r e g u l a r and f o u r g e n e t i c a l l y improved r o t a t i o n s , or a p o s s i b l e e i g h t r o t a t i o n s f o r each management u n i t . The number of p l a n n i n g p e r i o d s r e q u i r e d t o l i q u i d a t e the e x i s t i n g f o r e s t c r o p and the c o n v e r s i o n p e r i o d t o c o n v e r t the f o r e s t i n t o a r e g u l a t e d s t a t e a r e a l s o s p e c i f i e d . H a r v e s t c o n t r o l i s imposed d u r i n g the c o n v e r s i o n p e r i o d t o shape the stream of h a r v e s t s . One of t h r e e t y p e s of c o n t r o l can be chosen. In a r b i t r a r y c o n t r o l the maximum and minimum h a r v e s t 101 l e v e l s are e x p l i c i t l y set f o r each p e r i o d . In s e q u e n t i a l c o n t r o l each p e r i o d i c h a r v e s t i s r e s t r i c t e d to a range of v a l u e s around the preceding p e r i o d i c h a r v e s t l e v e l , s p e c i f i c a l l y w i t h i n a c e r t a i n percentage above and/or below the pre c e d i n g h a r v e s t . F i n a l l y , i n a c o n v e n t i o n a l c o n t r o l each of the p e r i o d i c harvest l e v e l s i s r e s t r i c t e d to a range of v a l u e s around t h e i r average f o r the c o n v e r s i o n p e r i o d . In the l a s t two types of c o n t r o l , the f i r s t p e r i o d i c harvest i s c o n s t r a i n e d to a range around the "c u r r e n t l e v e l " , which i s the h a r v e s t i n the l a s t s e v e r a l years e q u i v a l e n t to the l e n g t h of the f i r s t p e r i o d . R e g u l a t i o n c o n s t r a i n t s s t a b i l i z e the stream of h a r v e s t s from the " r e g u l a t e d " f o r e s t d u r i n g the remainder of the p l a n n i n g h o r i z o n which i s c a l l e d the p o s t - c o n v e r s i o n p e r i o d . P e r i o d i c harvest are r e s t r i c t e d to a range around t h e i r average, as i n the c o n v e n t i o n a l type of har v e s t c o n t r o l . The long-range s u s t a i n e d y i e l d (LRSY), as the average h a r v e s t l e v e l d u r i n g the p o s t -c o n v e r s i o n p e r i o d i s c a l l e d i n Timber RAM, can be l i n k e d to the l e v e l of har v e s t d u r i n g the c o n v e r s i o n p e r i o d . 5.2.1.2 Overview of the Timber RAM Problem The d e c i s i o n problem i n Timber RAM i s to c a l c u l a t e the area X ^ of management u n i t j to be managed under management sequence (or a l t e r n a t i v e ) k i n order t o opt i m i z e an o b j e c t i v e f u n c t i o n s u b j e c t to c o n s t r a i n t s r e l a t i n g to area and a c c e s s i b i l i t y of la n d , p e r i o d i c requirements, and harvest and r e g u l a t i o n p o l i c i e s . The o b j e c t i v e f u n c t i o n may be re p r e s e n t e d as: 102 O p t i m i z e I Z D j k X j k j= l k=l 2 number a s s i g n e d to management sequence k, jk where X i s the number of ha of management u n i t j t o be ik D i s the harvest volume, revenue or co s t per ha of management u n i t j i f as s i g n e d to management sequence k, J i s the number of management u n i t s , K i s the number of management sequences s e l e c t e d f o r management u n i t k. Area c o n s t r a i n t s p l a c e upper l i m i t s on the area of each management u n i t a v a i l a b l e to be managed: I X j k 2 A j j = l to J k=l where A^ i s the number of ha i n management u n i t j . A c c e s s i b i l i t y c o n s t r a i n t s can a l s o be d e f i n e d . I f only P j n % of management u n i t j i s expected to be a c c e s s i b l e i n p e r i o d 1 1 , the number of ha, Z j n , which i s a v a i l a b l e f o r management i n the p e r i o d i s zJ'n g p j n A j j = 1 t Q j n=l to N where N i s the number of p e r i o d s d u r i n g which a p a r t of a management u n i t i s i n a c c e s s i b l e . P e r i o d i c c o n s t r a i n t s s p e c i f y upper or lower bounds on p e r i o d i c requirements: 103 I I m j k n X j k { < , £ , = } M n j = l k = l f o r s p e c i f i c range of n where m^ k n i s the volume, c o s t , or revenue a s s o c i a t e d with managing one ha of management u n i t j under management sequence k i n p e r i o d n, and M n i s the upper or lower l i m i t on volume, c o s t or revenue. In s p e c i f y i n g the area i k to be p l a n t e d w i t h g e n e t i c a l l y - i m p r o v e d s t o c k , m =1, x i s the area t o be p l a n t e d and M n i s the maximum area a v a i l a b l e f o r p l a n t i n g i n p e r i o d n. The h a r v e s t c o n t r o l i n the model may be one of the f o l l o w i n g : ( a r b i t r a r y ) H n m i n < H n < H n m a k ( s e q u e n t i a l ) (1-a) H n _ 1 < H n < (1+b) H n _ 1 ( c o n v e n t i o n a l ) (1-a) Hc < Hn < (1+b) H c where H n i s the harvest l e v e l i n p e r i o d n, H n m i n i s the minimum har v e s t l e v e l f o r p e r i o d n set by the user, H n m a x i s the maximum ha r v e s t l e v e l f o r p e r i o d n set by the user, H i s the average harvest l e v e l d u r i n g the c o n v e r s i o n p e r i o d , and a and b are percentages s et by the user. The r e g u l a t i o n c o n s t r a i n t s are s i m i l a r to the c o n v e n t i o n a l h a r v e s t flow c o n s t r a i n t s , except t h a t the average harvest l e v e l , H P , i s over the p o s t - c o n v e r s i o n p e r i o d : 104 (1-a) Hp < Hn < (1+b) Hp 5.2.2 S o l v i n g the L i n e a r Programming Problem The l i n e a r programming problem i s s o l v e d by any of the standard commercial l i n e a r programming codes. MPSX (Mathematical Programming System extended), developed by IBM, has been used to s o l v e the l i n e a r programming problems i n t h i s t h e s i s . Other codes such as ILONA f o r UNIVAC computers and REX f o r CDC computers can a l s o be used. 5.2.3 Report W r i t i n g The l i n e a r programming s o l u t i o n g i v e s the v a l u e s of a c t i v i t y l e v e l s , reduced c o s t s , the o r i g i n a l c o s t c o e f f i c i e n t s , Right Hand Side (RHS) elements and dua l a c t i v i t i e s . These pages and pages of numbers, as generated by MPSX, may mean very l i t t l e to the average f o r e s t e r . The Report W r i t e r r e c a s t s t h i s maze of f i g u r e s i n formats t h a t may be r e a d i l y comprehensible t o f o r e s t managers. F i v e main documents may be requested from the Report W r i t e r : (1) The Timber Harvest Schedule g i v e s , f o r each management a c t i v i t y s e l e c t e d by Timber RAM, the area to be managed, the cut per h e c t a r e , and the t o t a l cut f o r each p e r i o d . T o t a l h arvest volumes and t h e i r breakdown i n t o i n t e r m e d i a t e and f i n a l c u t s are a l s o g i v e n . (2) The Problem Schedule i s s i m i l a r t o the h a r v e s t schedule except t h a t economic data such as revenues and c o s t s are a l s o g i v e n f o r each management a c t i v i t y . The c o n t r i b u t i o n of each 105 a c t i v i t y t o the o b j e c t i v e f u n c t i o n i s a l s o shown, t h i s b e i n g the b a s i s of s e l e c t i o n i n t h e problem. I f the problem s c h e d u l e i s not r e q u e s t e d a more c o n c i s e O b j e c t i v e Report i s produced, g i v i n g the a c t i v i t y s e l e c t e d and i t s c o n t r i b u t i o n t o the o b j e c t i v e f u n c t i o n , p l u s the a r e a t o be managed under each a c t i v i t y . (3) The H a r v e s t Report shows the t o t a l p e r i o d i c and c u m u l a t i v e volume h a r v e s t e d each p e r i o d and the average of the p o s t c o n v e r s i o n h a r v e s t l e v e l s . (4) The Economic Report s u p p l i e s the p e r i o d i c and c u m u l a t i v e c o s t s and revenues, d i s c o u n t e d a t up t o f i v e d i f f e r e n t d i s c o u n t r a t e s . (5) The H a r v e s t Graph i n d i c a t e s the h a r v e s t l e v e l s f o r e v e r y p e r i o d s p e c i f i e d , up t o the p l a n n i n g h o r i z o n . 5.3 The Advantages of U s i n g Timber RAM Timber RAM was s e l e c t e d because i t f a c i l i t a t e s g r e a t l y the c a l c u l a t i o n of h a r v e s t s c h e d u l e s and because i t s program was the most e a s i l y a v a i l a b l e , compared t o the o t h e r p l a n n i n g models. The major s i g n i f i c a n c e of Timber RAM i s t h a t i t p e r m i t s r a p i d and easy r e c a l c u l a t i o n of the a l l o w a b l e c u t and h a r v e s t l e v e l s under r e v i s e d p o l i c i e s a f f e c t i n g o b j e c t i v e s , c o n s t r a i n t s , management i n t e n s i t y and o t h e r a s s u m p t i o n s . T h i s a b i l i t y of Timber RAM was h i g h l i g h t e d i n Newport's (1973) r e p o r t t o the P r e s i d e n t ' s A d v i s o r y P a n e l on Timber and the Environment i n the U n i t e d S t a t e s . The Timber RAM computer program f a c i l i t a t e s the use of 106 l i n e a r programming f o r f o r e s t p l a n n e r s and managers by overcoming many b a r r i e r s which have h i t h e r t o slowed down the development and a p p l i c a t i o n of l i n e a r programming i n t i m b e r h a r v e s t s c h e d u l i n g and r e g u l a t i o n . By using' Timber RAM, the f o r e s t planner/manager i s f r e e d from the l a b o r i o u s t a s k of f o r m u l a t i n g a l l a c t i v i t i e s (columns) and the c o n s t r a i n t s (rows) t h a t a r e t o be i n c o r p o r a t e d i n the l i n e a r programming problem m a t r i x . The m a t r i x g e n e r a t o r i n the Timber RAM package reads i n p u t d a t a and g e n e r a t e s the problem m a t r i x t o be s o l v e d by.a commercial l i n e a r programming code. The planning/managing p r o c e s s may a l s o be f a c i l i t a t e d by the r e p o r t s which a r e p r i n t e d by Timber RAM r e p o r t w r i t e r . Timber RAM was the f i r s t example of a u s e r - o r i e n t e d computer program u s i n g l i n e a r programming and d e v e l o p e d f o r f o r e s t r y p l a n n i n g . L i n e a r programming i s u s e f u l i n t h a t i t o p t i m a l l y d e t e r m i n e s the s c h e d u l e or mix of p r e d e t e r m i n e d management a c t i v i t i e s t h a t s h o u l d be f o l l o w e d i n o r d e r t o a c h i e v e a p r e d e t e r m i n e d p r i m a r y o b j e c t i v e w i t h i n s p e c i f i e d c o n s t r a i n t s ( C h a p p e l l e , 1976). T h i s c h o i c e of method i s c o n s i s t e n t w i t h the recommendation of the b u i l d e r s of the FAO s i m u l a t i o n model f o r P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a f o r e s t r y s e c t o r t h a t an o p t i m i z a t i o n programme would be more a p p r o p r i a t e i n s e l e c t i n g h a r v e s t a r e a s (FAO, 1974a). In the FFIDP p l a n n i n g e x e r c i s e i n P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a the most d e s i r a b l e development s t r a t e g y was s e l e c t e d a f t e r a s e r i e s of d i a l o g u e s between the d e c i s i o n - m a k e r s and the p l a n n e r - a n a l y s t s . In these d i a l o g u e s the r e s u l t s of s u c c e s s i v e a l t e r n a t i v e s t r a t e g i e s were a s s e s s e d , and t h r o u g h a p r o c e s s of e l i m i n a t i o n the most s a t i s f a c t o r y and f e a s i b l e s t r a t e g y was s e l e c t e d (FAO, 1975a). The model d e v e l o p e r s emphasized t h a t 107 t h e i r model r e p r e s e n t e d a b a s i s f o r f u r t h e r e v a l u a t i o n r a t h e r than the p r e s e n t a t i o n of a f i n a l l y d e v e l o p e d , economic model (FAO, 1974a). S e v e r a l programs have been d e v e l o p e d s i n c e Timber RAM. The most n o t a b l e examples i n t i m b e r management p l a n n i n g a r e MUSYC (Johnson e t a l . , 1979), FORPLAN (Johnson e t a l . , 1980), SAM ( F i e l d e t a l . , 1980), TREES (Tedder et a l . , 1979) and ECHO (Walker, 1975; 1978). These new methods c o n t a i n some improvements over Timber RAM. However, the Timber RAM package has been the most w i d e l y a v a i l a b l e ; the program has been adapted f o r t he computing c e n t r e a t the U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h Columbia f o r the Computer A s s i s t e d Resource P l a n n i n g p r o j e c t ( W i l l i a m s e t a l . , 1975). For the purpose of t h i s s t u d y , Timber RAM i s s t i l l s u f f i c i e n t . 5.4 L i m i t a t i o n s of Timber RAM The l i m i t a t i o n s of Timber RAM can be c l a s s i f i e d i n t o t h r e e t y p e s : (1) those i n h e r e n t i n l i n e a r programming, (2) those which a r e b u i l t i n t o Timber RAM and (3) those r e s u l t i n g from the ways the package i s b e i n g a p p l i e d by v a r i o u s u s e r s ( C h a p p e l l e e t a l . , 1976). The t h i r d c a t e g o r y of l i m i t a t i o n s has not been s y s t e m a t i c a l l y s t u d i e d ; t h e r e f o r e o n l y the f i r s t two c a t e g o r i e s a r e d i s c u s s e d below. These d i s c u s s i o n s draw h e a v i l y from the e x t e n s i v e r e v i e w s of C h a p p e l l e (1976) and C h a p p e l l e e t a l . (1976). 108 5.4.1 L i m i t a t i o n s I n h e r e n t i n L i n e a r Programming Technique The l i m i t a t i o n s of l i n e a r programming models, as a whole, a r i s e from t h e i r assumptions of p r o p o r t i o n a l i t y , a d d i t i v i t y , d i v i s i b i l i t y and d e t e r m i n i s t i c n a t u r e of events ( H i l l i e r and Lieberman, 1980; Hadley, 1962). In t i m b e r management p l a n n i n g the assumptions of p r o p o r t i o n a l i t y and a d d i t i v i t y mean t h a t the t o t a l h a r v e s t volumes, revenues and c o s t s f o r each a c t i v i t y a re assumed t o be d i r e c t l y p r o p o r t i o n a l t o the a r e a which i s managed r e g a r d l e s s of the s i z e of the a r e a ( C h a p p e l l e , 1976; Navon, 1971a). In a c t u a l p r a c t i c e the average c o s t s may drop as the s i z e of the a r e a b e i n g managed i n c r e a s e s and, l i k e w i s e , the market p r i c e of t i m b e r may d e c l i n e as more t i m b e r i s b e i n g produced ( W i l l i a m s , 1976). A p r o c e d u r e f o r a p p r o x i m a t i n g a downward s l o p i n g demand c u r v e by b r e a k i n g i t i n t o s t r a i g h t - l i n e segments and t r e a t i n g volumes c o r r e s p o n d i n g t o each segment as s e p a r a t e e n t i t i e s have been d e s c r i b e d by Hrubes and Navon (1976). The d i v i s i b i l i t y assumption may l e a d t o f r a c t i o n a l a r e a s of a management u n i t b e i n g managed under d i f f e r e n t regimes. Some managers may want s t a n d compartments t o be t r e a t e d as management u n i t s and t r e a t e d i n an i d e n t i c a l manner ( C h a p p e l l e , 1976). S o l u t i o n s w i t h rounded numbers may not be o p t i m a l or may even be i n f e a s i b l e . I f the v a r i a b l e s were t o be r e s t r i c t e d t o i n t e g e r v a l u e s , the problem may be s o l v e d by I n t e g e r Programming. A l t e r n a t i v e l y , m i x e d - i n t e g e r programming may be used; the t e c h n i q u e combines normal LP w i t h some i n t e g e r v a r i a b l e s . However, i n t e g e r and m i x e d - i n t e g e r programming t e c h n i q u e s a r e g e n e r a l l y c o m p u t a t i o n a l l y i n e f f i c i e n t and e x p e n s i v e t o s o l v e . 109 L i n e a r programming a l s o assumed t h a t the t i m b e r y i e l d , c o s t , p r i c e s and o t h e r v a l u e s a r e known w i t h c e r t a i n t y now and i n the f u t u r e . However, the t e c h n i q u e has some p r o v i s i o n s i n i t s o p t i o n s of p o s t - o p t i m a l a n a l y s e s t o v a r y c e r t a i n c o e f f i c i e n t s t o b e t t e r u n d e r s t a n d the e f f e c t of ch a n g i n g f u t u r e v a l u e s . Another t e c h n i q u e of t r e a t i n g u n c e r t a i n t y has been d i s c u s s e d by Thompson and Haynes (1971). T h e i r approach i n v o l v e d r e p l a c i n g p o i n t e s t i m a t e s of the r i g h t - h a n d - s i d e v a l u e s i n the l i n e a r programming w i t h s u b j e c t i v e p r o b a b i l i t y d i s t r i b u t i o n s . 5.4.2 L i m i t a t i o n s Bui I t i n t o Timber RAM L i m i t a t i o n s which a r i s e from the d e s i g n of Timber RAM have been d i s c u s s e d by C h a p p e l l e ( 1 976), C h a p p e l l e e_t a_l. (1976) and F i e l d (1978) and are p r e s e n t e d below a c c o r d i n g t o the c a t e g o r i e s i n C h a p p e l l e e_t aJL. (1976). They s e p a r a t e d the l i m i t a t i o n s i n t o f o u r c a t e g o r i e s : (1) s i l v i c u l t u r a l and management c o n s i d e r a t i o n s , (2) economic and s o c i a l c o n s i d e r a t i o n s , (3) s p a t i a l c o n s i d e r a t i o n s , and (4) c o m p u t a t i o n a l c o n s i d e r a t i o n s . W ith the development of new t i m b e r - p l a n n i n g models employing l i n e a r programming t e c h n i q u e i n the l a s t decade, some of the s e l i m i t a t i o n s would a l s o a p p l y t o the s e models; th e s e l i m i t a t i o n s a r e not n e c e s s a r i l y unique t o Timber RAM. 5.4.2.1 S i l v i c u l t u r a l and M a n a g e r i a l C o n s i d e r a t i o n s The s t a t i c method of a n a l y s i s i n Timber RAM does not a l l o w c o n s i d e r a t i o n of the many complex b i o l o g i c a l i n t e r a c t i o n s and responses which a r e l i k e l y t o o c c u r i n f o r e s t management. The volume t o be h a r v e s t e d i s s p e c i f i e d by the user i n a t a b u l a r 110 s c h e d u l e . T h i s l e a d s t o u n r e a l i s t i c r e s u l t s w i t h r e s p e c t t o i n t e r m e d i a t e h a r v e s t volumes. When c a l c u l a t i n g the y i e l d of i n t e r m e d i a t e h a r v e s t s Timber RAM i s not s e n s i t i v e t o p r i o r s i l v i c u l t u r a l t r e a t m e n t s c a r r i e d out i n the s t a n d s . The y i e l d i s i d e n t i c a l f o r a l l h a r v e s t s o c c u r r i n g i n the same p e r i o d , r e g a r d l e s s of the fr e q u e n c y and t i m i n g of t h i n n i n g s t h a t have been c a r r i e d o u t . Timber RAM p r o v i d e s f o r s p e c i a l a c t i v i t i e s t o c i r c u m v e n t t h i s drawback, but o n l y a t the s a c r i f i c e of much con v e n i e n c e ( C h a p p e l l e e t a_l. , 1976). I t would have been more r e a l i s t i c i f growth f u n c t i o n s were used, i n s t e a d of y i e l d t a b l e s , t o r e p r e s e n t the s t a t e of the f o r e s t over t i m e , i n response t o v a r i o u s s i l v i c u l t u r a l t r e a t m e n t s and o t h e r e v e n t s . An approach t o u t i l i z e a growth model t o g e n e r a t e i n p u t d a t a f o r a f o r e s t p l a n n i n g model such as Timber RAM has been deve l o p e d by W i l l i a m s (1976). S i n c e the l i n e a r - p r o g r a m m i n g s o l u t i o n can o n l y be as o p t i m a l as the i n p u t d a t a , p l a n n i n g models s h o u l d be a b l e t o use the most a c c u r a t e data a v a i l a b l e . The management sequences g e n e r a l l y c y c l e once the e x i s t i n g f o r e s t s a r e h a r v e s t e d ; the r e g e n e r a t e d f o r e s t s a r e managed on f i x e d and c o n s t a n t c u t t i n g c y c l e s . No p r o v i s i o n i s made f o r changes i n c u t t i n g c y c l e s due t o changes i n the f o r e s t or management s i t u a t i o n s . C u t t i n g c y c l e s of v a r i a b l e l e n g t h s can be s p e c i f i e d w i t h i n each management sequence i n Type I I models such as FORPLAN (Johnson et a l . , 1980). Another c r i t i c i s m was t h a t Timber RAM does not p r o v i d e a c o n c i s e l i s t of a l l the management a c t i o n s r e q u i r e d t o a c h i e v e the o p t i m a l s o l u t i o n ; some a c t i o n s such as p l a n t i n g have t o be 111 i n f e r r e d from the h a r v e s t s c h e d u l e s . F i n a l l y , Timber RAM does not s e t an upper l i m i t t o the s i z e of a r e a t o be c u t , thus i g n o r i n g p r o v i s i o n s f o r e f f e c t i v e r e g e n e r a t i o n and e n v i r o n m e n t a l p r o t e c t i o n . However, t h e s e two l i m i t a t i o n s may not be s e r i o u s c o n s i d e r i n g t h a t Timber RAM i s u s u a l l y employed i n s t r a t e g i c p l a n n i n g . The d e t a i l s r e g a r d i n g p r e c i s e management p r e s c r i p t i o n s and the s i z e of i n d i v i d u a l a r e a s t o be h a r v e s t e d a n n u a l l y a r e u s u a l l y d e t e r m i n e d i n o p e r a t i o n a l p l a n n i n g . 5.4.2.2 Economic and S o c i a l C o n s i d e r a t i o n s Timber RAM has been c r i t i c i z e d f o r i g n o r i n g a wider range of g o a l s , f o r e s t p r o d u c t s , and o t h e r non-land r e s o u r c e c o n s t r a i n t s , thus s e t t i n g c e r t a i n l i m i t a t i o n s on i t s use by a g e n c i e s where o t h e r g o a l s , p r o d u c t s and c o n s t r a i n t s need t o be c o n s i d e r e d . The o b j e c t i v e s t h a t can be s p e c i f i e d i n Timber RAM a r e o n l y those p e r t a i n i n g t o the h a r v e s t volume, revenues and c o s t s ; the model i g n o r e s the r e g i o n a l economic, p o l i t i c a l and s o c i a l g o a l s t h a t t i m b e r managers i n both the p u b l i c and p r i v a t e s e c t o r s s h o u l d c o n s i d e r . In f o c u s s i n g o n l y on t i m b e r p r o d u c t i o n , the model n e g l e c t s the o t h e r p r o d u c t s and s e r v i c e s from the f o r e s t s . I t does not l i v e up t o the c l a i m by Navon (1971a) and Hennes et §_1. (1971) t h a t i t i s p a r t of a system t o p l a n the m u l t i p l e - u s e management of f o r e s t l a n d s . Even though o t h e r systems have emerged — f o r example,. Range RAM ( J e n s e n , 1976) and Roading RAM (Weintraub and Navon, 1978; Navon, 1981) — the h i g h a v a i l a b i l i t y of Timber RAM compared t o the o t h e r subsystems would encourage m i s a l l o c a t i o n of r e s o u r c e s i n f a v o u r of t i m b e r p r o d u c t i o n . 1 12 Timber RAM does not i n c l u d e non-land r e s o u r c e c o n s t r a i n t s such as s c a r c i t y of investment funds and s k i l l e d l a b o u r which a r e r e q u i r e d f o r i n t e n s i v e f o r e s t management. Moreover, the " o p t i m a l " s o l u t i o n t o the a l l o w a b l e c u t d e c i s i o n , which i s the f o c u s of Timber RAM, does not i n c l u d e the o p t i m a l s o l u t i o n s t o r e l a t e d d e c i s i o n s such as r o t a t i o n or c u t t i n g c y c l e , s t o c k i n g and t r e a t m e n t s ; the d e t e r m i n a t i o n of the o p t i m a l v a l u e s of the s e i n p u t v a r i a b l e s may be more i m p o r t a n t than the c a l c u l a t i o n of h a r v e s t l e v e l s . C h a p p e l l e (1976) and C h a p p e l l e e t a l . (1976) argued t h a t the major problems of r e s o u r c e a l l o c a t i o n t h a t f a c e f o r e s t managers i n the p u b l i c s e c t o r may need t o be c o n s i d e r e d on a much broader scope than i n the approach i n Timber RAM. However, i f we r e c o g n i z e t h a t models such as Timber RAM a r e used i n d e c i s i o n  a n a l y s i s and not d e c i s i o n making, then these l i m i t a t i o n s s h o u l d not be taken t o mean t h a t t h e s e models s h o u l d not be used a t a l l . Even C h a p p e l l e (1976) and C h a p p e l l e e t a_l. (1976) emphasized t h a t no model can be expected t o p r o v i d e s i m u l t a n e o u s g l o b a l o p t i m a l s o l u t i o n s t o a i l i n t e r - r e l a t e d management d e c i s i o n s . M u l t i p l e o b j e c t i v e s can be handled by v a r i a t i o n s of l i n e a r programming c a l l e d G o a l Programming, which has been employed i n t i m b e r -p l a n n i n g models by F i e l d (1973), B e l l (1975), Dress (1975), N e e l y et a l . (1976), Dane et a l . (1977), S c h u l e r et a l . (1977), F i e l d (1978) and F i e l d et a l . (1980). M u l t i p l e - O b j e c t i v e l i n e a r programming has been d i s c u s s e d by S t e u e r and S c h u l e r (1979, 1980) . 1 13 5.4.2.3 S p a t i a l C o n s i d e r a t i o n s Timber RAM, as a " p o i n t " model, assumes t h a t each a c t i v i t y i s c a r r i e d out a t a g i v e n p o i n t i n space, thus i g n o r i n g the c o s t s and l o g i s t i c s i n r e a l l i f e where t h e s e a c t i v i t i e s u s u a l l y occur i n p o o r l y d i s t r i b u t e d a r e a s . A t i m b e r c l a s s as used i n Timber RAM i s not a g e o g r a p h i c a l u n i t on the ground, but an a g g r e g a t i o n of s t a n d s w i t h s i m i l a r c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . C o n s e q u e n t l y , a s p e c t s such as t r a n s p o r t a t i o n c o s t s and economies of s c a l e of o p e r a t i o n s i n one l a r g e c o n t i g u o u s a r e a as opposed t o s p o r a d i c and s m a l l e r u n i t s a r e not i n c l u d e d i n the model. S p a t i a l d i m e n s i o n can be h a n d l e d by r e d e f i n i n g the t i m b e r c l a s s e s t o be s p e c i f i c , c o n t i g u o u s and homogeneous s t a n d s i n the f o r e s t a r e a . T h i s has been done i n o t h e r l i n e a r programming a p p l i c a t i o n s such as i n the d e f i n i t i o n of " c u t t i n g u n i t s " by Ware and C l u t t e r (1971). Thus t h e r e would be as many tim b e r c l a s s e s as t h e r e a r e d i f f e r e n t s p a t i a l u n i t s on the p r o p e r t y . The r e s t r i c t i o n i n the number of t i m b e r c l a s s e s (500 i n the 1975 v e r s i o n ) may be the l i m i t i n g f a c t o r i n the development of such a model. T h i s problem can be s o l v e d by h a v i n g a l e s s e r number of u n i t s of l a r g e r a r e a . Average v a l u e s of the economic and s i l v i c u l t u r a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of each s t a n d a r e used, a compromise i n r e t u r n f o r the a b i l i t y t o i n c o r p o r a t e o t h e r a s p e c t s such as t r a n s p o r t a t i o n c o s t s and economies of s c a l e . Even w o r k i n g w i t h t i m b e r c l a s s e s based on the a g g r e g a t i o n of t h r e e ownership c l a s s e s , 25 f o r e s t t y p e s and 16 age c a t e g o r i e s , Fowler (1978) c o u l d not u t i l i z e Timber RAM because of the upper l i m i t of the number of t i m b e r c l a s s e s t h a t i t can h a n d l e . 1 1 4 A ' p o i n t ' model such as Timber RAM can be u s e f u l f o r p l a n n i n g a l a r g e a r e a where a g g r e g a t i o n of type i s l a n d s r e s u l t s i n a manageable number of t i m b e r c l a s s e s . An optimum r a t e of h a r v e s t i n g c o u l d be c a l c u l a t e d f o r the l a r g e a r e a , f o r example, a c o u n t r y or r e g i o n . M o d e l l i n g a t the lower l e v e l s , such as a d i s t r i c t or f o r e s t , c o u l d then use s p a t i a l models, s e t t i n g as g o a l s the r a t e of h a r v e s t , f o r the s h o r t and l o n g r u n , c a l c u l a t e d i n the ' p o i n t ' model. 5.4.2.4 C o m p u t a t i o n a l C o n s i d e r a t i o n s The wide range of o p t i o n s a v a i l a b l e i n the Timber RAM package r e s u l t s i n a complex computer program t h a t may be d i f f i c u l t f o r p r o s p e c t i v e u s e r s t o adapt t o t h e i r e x i s t i n g p l a n n i n g systems and c o s t l y , i n terms of money and t i m e , t o r u n . The d e v e l o p e r s have p r o v i d e d e x t e n s i v e documents about the package, but these documents a r e vague r e g a r d i n g many a s p e c t s which are i m p o r t a n t t o the user ( C h a p p e l l e e_t a_l. , 1976). These problems can, however, be s o l v e d by communicating w i t h the d e v e l o p e r s . 1 1 5 . CHAPTER 6 APPLICATION OF TIMBER RAM TO PENINSULAR MALAYSIA Timber RAM c o u l d be a p p l i e d t o a n a l y s e the f o r e s t management s i t u a t i o n i n P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a w i t h o n l y minor m o d i f i c a t i o n s . These m o d i f i c a t i o n s c o n s i s t of the manner by which the ages of the f o r e s t s a r e d e f i n e d , the use of the a c c e s s i b i l i t y c o n s t r a i n t s t o s e t the r a t e of w i t h r a w a l of f o r e s t l a n d s f o r a g r i c u l t u r e , and the s p e c i f i c a t i o n of the h a r v e s t method. In the f o l l o w i n g s e c t i o n s , the v a r i o u s s c e n a r i o s c o r r e s p o n d i n g t o d i f f e r e n t a ssumptions about ti m b e r u t i l i z a t i o n and f o r e s t management a r e d e s c r i b e d , f o l l o w e d by data p e r t a i n i n g t o the f o r e s t a r e a , t i m b e r y i e l d and management p o l i c y . The l i n e a r programming problem m a t r i x f o r the b a s i c s c e n a r i o i s d e s c r i b e d i n Appendix I I . 6.1 Some P o s s i b l e F u t u r e Management S i t u a t i o n s S e v e r a l a l t e r n a t i v e f u t u r e management s i t u a t i o n s can be e n v i s a g e d f o r the f o r e s t s of P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a . The b a s i c s c e n a r i o r e p r e s e n t s the management s i t u a t i o n where a l l the p o t e n t i a l t i m b e r volume i n s p e c i e s c u r r e n t l y m a r k e t a b l e and i n t r e e s s i z e s c u r r e n t l y s p e c i f i e d i n f o r e s t r y department r e g u l a t i o n were h a r v e s t e d . The f o r e s t s a r e managed by a s e l e c t i o n system w i t h c u t t i n g c y c l e s of 30 t o 50 y e a r s . Improvements over the b a s i c management s i t u a t i o n i n c l u d e i n c r e a s i n g the p r o p o r t i o n of m a r k e t a b l e s p e c i e s i n the f o r e s t i n c l u d i n g the use of a l l s p e c i e s , the l o w e r i n g of the dbh c u t t i n g l i m i t , i n t e n s i v e management i n the i n d i g e n o u s f o r e s t s as w e l l as the c o n v e r s i o n of the i n d i g e n o u s f o r e s t s t o p l a n t a t i o n s of e x o t i c f a s t - g r o w i n g s p e c i e s . On the p e s s i m i s t i c s i d e , the s i t u a t i o n r e s u l t i n g from 116 the c o n t i n u a t i o n of the c u r r e n t , v e r y s e l e c t i v e l o g g i n g i s p r e s e n t e d t o g e t h e r w i t h two a d a p t a t i o n s of the FDPM p l a n f o r f o r e s t management. 6.1.1 S c e n a r i o 1: B a s i c S c e n a r i o T h i s b a s i c s c e n a r i o r e p r e s e n t s the management s i t u a t i o n where a l l t r e e s of m a r k e t a b l e s p e c i e s down t o a dbh of 46 cm a r e removed i n l o g g i n g . The c h o i c e of the 46 cm lower dbh l i m i t stems from t h r e e r e a s o n s . (1) T h i s dbh l i m i t i s an a p p r o x i m a t i o n of the f o r e s t r y department r e g u l a t i o n under the Malayan U n i f o r m System, which r e q u i r e d t h a t a l l of m a r k e t a b l e s p e c i e s i n the l o w l a n d f o r e s t s be h a r v e s t e d down t o a dbh of 43.7 cm (4.5 f e e t g i r t h ) (FDPM, 1979). In the s e l e c t i v e management system f o r the h i l l f o r e s t s , 46 cm i s the minimum dbh of t r e e s which a r e c o n s i d e r e d f o r h a r v e s t i n g , even though i n a c t u a l p r a c t i c e a h i g h e r l i m i t of around 50 t o 60 cm i s used i n o r d e r t o secure adequate s t o c k i n g of advanced r e g e n e r a t i o n i n the r e s i d u a l stands (FAO, 1978a). (2) T r a d i t i o n a l l y , a t o p d i a m e t e r i n s i d e bark ( d i b ) of 46 cm has been the d i v i d i n g l i n e between " s m a l l " and " b i g " l o g s . U n t i l v e r y r e c e n t l y , l o g s below t h i s s i z e were not a c c e p t e d by the i n d u s t r y . S m a l l l o g s were c o n s i d e r e d uneconomical t o p r o c e s s and l e f t i n the f o r e s t d u r i n g l o g g i n g o p e r a t i o n i n the PFE or burnt d u r i n g l a n d c l e a r a n c e f o a g r i c u l t u r a l development (Sim, 1980; Lew, 1974). (3) Data on t i m b e r s t o c k i n g and volumes were o n l y a v a i l a b l e i n c e r t a i n i n t e r v a l s of dbh c l a s s e s . One of t h e s e dbh c l a s s e s 1 1 7 b e g i n s w i t h 46 cm 9. These i n t e r v a l s a r e the m e t r i c e q u i v a l e n t s of the 6-12 i n . , 12-18 i n . , 18-24 i n . , and 24+ i n . i n I m p e r i a l measure. These c l a s s e s , b e s i d e s b e i n g c o n v e n i e n t and w e l l -spaced, have been d e s i g n e d f o r f i n a n c i a l reasons (FAO, 1974a). P r e l i m i n a r y c o s t and p r i c e d a t a f o r 1970 i n d i c a t e d t h a t , i n a s i t u a t i o n of r e s o u r c e abundance, the i n d u s t r y a c h i e v e d maximum p r o f i t by t a k i n g l a r g e t r e e s o n l y , down t o dbh of 58.4 t o 61.0 cm (23 t o 24 i n . ) . The same d a t a a l s o showed t h a t the plywood i n d u s t r y c o u l d p e e l l o g s of 38.1 t o 43.2 cm (15 t o 17 i n . ) di a m e t e r a t a p r o f i t , and t h a t c o s t s e q u a l l e d s a l e s revenue i n the s a w m i l l i n d u s t r y when p r o c e s s i n g l o g s of 25.4 t o 27.9 cm (10 t o 11 i n . ) a t the s m a l l end. 6.1.2 S c e n a r i o 2: U t i l i z a t i o n of S m a l l e r Logs T h i s s c e n a r i o assumes t h a t t r e e s of m a r k e t a b l e s p e c i e s a r e h a r v e s t e d down t o 30 cm dbh. T h i s lower c u t t i n g l i m i t r e p r e s e n t s an improvement i n u t i l i z a t i o n from the p r a c t i c e assumed i n the b a s i c s c e n a r i o and, hence, from the c u r r e n t p r a c t i c e . The a d o p t i o n of t h i s c u t t i n g l i m i t means t h a t t r e e s i n the next lower dbh c l a s s , c o n t a i n i n g a p o r t i o n of the " s m a l l l o g s " , a r e i n c l u d e d i n the h a r v e s t . T h i s h a r v e s t i n g p r a c t i c e would add s u b s t a n t i a l volume of ti m b e r t o the annual h a r v e s t . D u r i n g the l a s t decade about 2.1 9 I t i s not c l e a r what the p r e c i s e d i v i d i n g l i n e s between the dbh c l a s s e s a r e . The c l a s s e s i n i n c h e s may be 6.0-11.9, 12.0-17.9, 18.0-23.9, and 24.0+, or 6.1-12.0, 12.1-18.0, 18.1-24.0, and 24.1+. The d a t a f o r the 1972 f o r e s t i n v e n t o r y were grouped i n t o d i a m e t e r c l a s e s of 15-30 cm, 30-46 cm, 46-61 cm and 61+ cm. 118 m i l l i o n m3 of ma r k e t a b l e s p e c i e s i n t r e e s 30 t o 46 cm dbh have been burnt a n n u a l l y i n a r e a s which were c o n v e r t e d t o a g r i c u l t u r e . T h i s e s t i m a t e i s the g r o s s m a r k e t a b l e volume i n t r e e s i n t h i s dbh c l a s s i n the 73,200 ha c l e a r e d a n n u a l l y d u r i n g the p e r i o d 1971 t o 1980; i n v e n t o r y d a t a (FAO, 1973a) i n d i c a t e t h a t a h e c t a r e c o n t a i n s 28.4 m3 of t r e e s i n t h i s dbh range. Some 60 p e r c e n t or 1.2 m i l l i o n m3 of t h i s volume c o u l d have been u t i l i z e d a n n u a l l y . The above e s t i m a t e of l o s s i n p o t e n t i a l h a r v e s t i s j u s t s l i g h t l y g r e a t e r than the 0.8 t o 1.0 m i l l i o n m3 per year p r o j e c t e d by FAO (1975c) f o r the p e r i o d 1976 t o 1995. The r e l u c t a n c e of the i n d u s t r y t o u t i l i z e s m a l l e r l o g s i n the p a s t has been because the p r o c e s s i n g of such l o g s would r e s u l t i n a l o s s or i n a p r o f i t margin ( a f t e r t a x ) lower than the a c c e p t a b l e 20 t o 35 p e r c e n t (Lew, 1974). Because the s a w m i l l s have been d e s i g n e d f o r the l a r g e r l o g s which have been r e a d i l y a v a i l a b l e i n the p a s t , sawing s m a l l l o g s would r e s u l t i n low r e c o v e r y r a t e , low o u t t u r n per man-day, and waste of power. In the economic c o n d i t i o n s of 1970, maximum p r o f i t would be a c h i e v e d by sawing l a r g e l o g s of 58 t o 61 cm d i a m e t e r (FAO, 1974a). There i s a growing t r e n d toward the u t i l i z a t i o n of s m a l l e r l o g s i n P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a . The FDPM has been e n c o u r a g i n g the s e t t i n g up of s a w m i l l s t o p r o c e s s t h e s e h i t h e r t o unused l o g s (Sim, 1980; Lew, 1974). These s m a l l - l o g s a w m i l l s a r e d e s i g n e d t o saw l o g s w i t h d iameter g e n e r a l l y s m a l l e r than 46 cm. The o r i g i n a l i d e a was t o use the p r o d u c t s i n the l o c a l market or t o s u p p l y the m i l l e r ' s own r e q u i r e m e n t s f o r f u r t h e r p r o c e s s i n g . A survey of s m a l l - l o g s a w m i l l s by Sim (1980) r e v e a l e d t h a t 119 the r e c o v e r y r a t e of s m a l l - l o g c o n v e r s i o n averaged around 60 p e r c e n t . T h i s v a l u e i s the same as the r e c o v e r y r a t e commonly quoted f o r b i g l o g s (Chong, 1979a). The r e c o v e r y r a t e ranged from 48 t o 76 p e r c e n t , depending on the dimension of l o g s , c u t t i n g t e c h n i q u e s and s i z e of f i n a l p r o d u c t s . The average r a t e i n c r e a s e d from 49 p e r c e n t f o r l o g s s m a l l e r than 23 cm d i a m e t e r t o 58 p e r c e n t f o r the 29 t o 33 cm d i a m e t e r c l a s s e s . For l o g s of d i a m e t e r g r e a t e r than 33 cm the average r e c o v e r y r a t e was around 63 p e r c e n t . Recovery r a t e s were low i f the s i z e of the f i n a l p r o d u c t s was l a r g e . These " s m a l l " l o g s a r e s u f f i c i e n t l y l a r g e by s t a n d a r d s i n o t h e r p a r t s of the w o r l d . In B r i t i s h C olumbia, c l o s e u t i l i z a t i o n s t a n d a r d s r e q u i r e t h a t a l l t r e e s w i t h 17.5 cm dbh and 10 cm top d i a m e t e r ( i n s i d e bark) a r e h a r v e s t e d and u t i l i z e d . S m a l l e r t r e e s a r e a l s o b e i n g used i n Europe. Montague (1971 c i t e d by Lew, 1974) gave the lower d i a m e t e r l i m i t of 15 cm (6 i n . ) f o r the U n i t e d Kingdom. 6.1.3 S c e n a r i o 3: I n c r e a s e d P r o p o r t i o n of M a r k e t a b l e S p e c i e s i n  Subsequent Crops S c e n a r i o 3 r e p r e s e n t s the e f f e c t of i n c r e a s i n g the volume of m a r k e t a b l e s p e c i e s i n the subsequent c r o p s . The i n c r e a s e i n the p r o p o r t i o n of m a r k e t a b l e volume may a r i s e from the a c c e p t a n c e , by the i n d u s t r y , of h i t h e r t o "weed" s p e c i e s and from the " r e f i n e m e n t " of the new f o r e s t s t a n d s as a r e s u l t of d e l i b e r a t e s i l v i c u l t u r a l t r e a t m e n t s and/or because of the i n h e r e n t c a p a b i l i t y of the m a r k e t a b l e s p e c i e s groups t o outcompete the o t h e r s p e c i e s . 120 The t r e n d towards a c c e p t i n g a wider range of s p e c i e s has been e v i d e n t i n the p a s t . The number of " a c c e p t a b l e " s p e c i e s which can be i n c l u d e d i n l i n e a r r e g e n e r a t i o n s u r v e y (LRS) i n P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a has been i n c r e a s i n g from about 200 s p e c i e s i n 1949 ( B a r n a r d , 1950), t o about 250 s p e c i e s i n 1963 (Wyatt-Smith, 1963), and t o 300 s p e c i e s i n 1970 (FDPM, 1975b). Even though the l i s t e d s p e c i e s dropped t o 43 p r e f e r r e d s p e c i e s and 49 a c c e p t a b l e s p e c i e s i n the 1974 r e v i s i o n (FDPM, 1975b), the reduced number does not mean t h a t some s p e c i e s have been r e j e c t e d by the market. The r e d u c t i o n a r o s e from g r o u p i n g s p e c i e s which have s i m i l a r p r o p e r t i e s . Other s p e c i e s o c c u r i n some l o c a l i t i e s o n l y and, t h e r e f o r e , were imp o r t a n t t o l i m i t e d a r e a s ; t h e s e s p e c i e s were not l i s t e d by s p e c i e s but i n c l u d e d as " o t h e r s f o r s p e c i f i c d i s t r i c t o n l y " . Heavy hardwood s p e c i e s which have been i m p o r t a n t i n the e a r l y phase of f o r e s t r y development i n P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a were no l o n g e r c o n s i d e r e d of s p e c i a l i n t e r e s t because t h e y , as a group, grow more s l o w l y than the l i g h t and medium hardwood s p e c i e s . Growth r a t e was one of the major c r i t e r i a i n the 1974 s p e c i e s c l a s s i f i c a t i o n . M a r k e t a b l e s p e c i e s were grouped i n t o p r e f e r r e d and a c c e p t a b l e s p e c i e s . P r e f e r r e d s p e c i e s c o n s i s t of m a r k e t a b l e s p e c i e s c a p a b l e of a t t a i n i n g a dbh of 48.5 cm (60 i n . g i r t h at b r e a s t h e i g h t ) a t age 40 y e a r s . A c c e p t a b l e s p e c i e s are m a r k e t a b l e s p e c i e s which cannot r e a c h 48.5 i n dbh a t 40 y e a r s of age but a r e c a p a b l e of a t t a i n i n g a minimum dbh of about 29 cm. The u t i l i z a t i o n of a w i d e r range of t r e e s p e c i e s has been used t o e x p l a i n the i n c r e a s e i n the h a r v e s t y i e l d from the 121 l o w l a n d f o r e s t s of P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a from 8.75 m 3/ha (125 f t 3 / a c ) i n the 1930's t o 52.5 m 3/ha (750 f t 3 / a c ) i n the 1960's (Wyatt-Smith, 1961). S i l v i c u l t u r a l t r e a t m e n t was r i g h t l y d i s m i s s e d as a c o n t r i b u t i n g f a c t o r because most of the h a r v e s t i n g o p e r a t i o n s were c a r r i e d out i n unmanaged p r i m a r y f o r e s t s . A t h i r d i n d i c a t o r of the i n c r e a s i n g a c c e p t a n c e of h i t h e r t o unpopular s p e c i e s has been the i n c r e a s e i n the p r o p o r t i o n of tim b e r volume of "oth e r s p e c i e s " produced i n the p e r i o d 1971 t o 1979 (FDPM, 1980a; M a l a y s i a n F o r e s t e r , 1980). Over the n i n e - y e a r p e r i o d the p r o d u c t i o n of "oth e r s p e c i e s " i n c r e a s e d by 307 p e r c e n t from 741 thousand m3 t o 3018 thousand m3. Over the same p e r i o d , t o t a l p r o d u c t i o n o n l y i n c r e a s e d by 45 p e r c e n t from 7950 thousand m3 to-11558 thousand m3. The p r o p o r t i o n of "o t h e r s p e c i e s " as a pe r c e n t a g e of t o t a l p r o d u c t i o n rose from 9.3 p e r c e n t i n 1971 t o 26.1 p e r c e n t i n 1979. A t r e n d i n the timb e r i n d u s t r y i n the l a s t s e v e r a l decades has been the u t i l i z a t i o n of a wider range of s p e c i e s . One en c o u r a g i n g t r e n d has been the development towards s p e c i e s - t o l e r a n t p r o c e s s e s and p r o d u c t s . In the p u l p and paper i n d u s t r y the t r e n d has been from the e x c l u s i v e use of a l i m i t e d number of c o n i f e r o u s s p e c i e s , t h rough the ac c e p t a n c e of s e l e c t hardwoods, t o the u t i l i z a t i o n of whole t r e e s , r e s i d u e s from the f o r e s t and m i l l s , and i n c r e a s i n g numbers of s p e c i e s , i n c l u d i n g the mixed t r o p i c a l hardwoods. Mixed t r o p i c a l hardwoods a r e i n commercial use i n p a r t s of A f r i c a , I n d i a , T h a i l a n d and South A m e r i c a . M i l l s i n the P h i l i p p i n e s and some i n Japan a re dependent on mixed t r o p i c a l hardwoods as a source of pulpwood; they a re o f t e n mixed 1 22 w i t h o t h e r wood, such as p l a n t a t i o n m a t e r i a l s , p r i o r t o p u l p i n g ( P h i l l i p s e t a l . , 1978). One company i n Colombia has, f o r the l a s t two decades, been u s i n g a mix of about 200 t r o p i c a l s p e c i e s t o g e t h e r w i t h imported l o n g - f i b r e d m a t e r i a l s and l o c a l l y c o l l e c t e d waste paper t o manufacture k r a f t l i n e r , c y l i n d e r l i n e r , c o r r u g a t i n g medium, boxboard and sack papers ( C u b i l l o s , 1978). The c o n s i d e r a b l e advances made i n the t e c h n o l o g y of p a r t i c l e b o a r d and f i b r e b o a r d manufacture i n r e c e n t y e a r s have r e s u l t e d i n the u t i l i z a t i o n of f o r e s t and m i l l r e s i d u e s of almost any s i z e and shape, and of an e x t r e m e l y wide range of wood s p e c i e s . The f i b r e b o a r d i n d u s t r y i s even l e s s s e n s i t i v e t o mixed raw m a t e r i a l i n p u t than the p a r t i c l e board i n d u s t r y . The t r e n d •throughout the w o r l d i n t h i s i n d u s t r y has been t o use more m i l l r e s i d u e s , a h i g h e r p r o p o r t i o n of unbarked round wood, and more mixed hardwoods, i n c l u d i n g t r o p i c a l hardwoods. K i n g (1978) c i t e d the example of a p a r t i c l e board m i l l i n Pe r u which u t i l i z e d up t o 45 s p e c i e s . The use of heterogeneous m i x t u r e s i n t h i s i n d u s t r y i s p o s s i b l e because of the d i v e r s e t y p e s of f l a k i n g machines t h a t can be used t o c o n v e r t wood i n t o p a r t i c l e s . These p r o d u c t s have l o s t t h e i r s p e c i e s i d e n t i t i e s (Chudnoff, 1976). Even i n the t r a d i t i o n a l l y demanding plywood i n d u s t r y t r o p i c a l hardwoods of many s p e c i e s , and of v a r y i n g s i z e s , a r e b e i n g u t i l i z e d more and more. S p e c i e s which a r e prone t o m e c h a n i c a l damage, which have h i g h sugar c o n t e n t and u n a t t r a c t i v e c o l o u r s , c o u l d be used as c o r e v e n e e r s . The t h i c k e r the c o r e , the g r e a t e r the volume of " l e s s e r used" wood s p e c i e s t h a t may be used i n the plywood i n d u s t r y ( K i n g , 1978). A l t e r n a t i v e l y , 123 plywood s h e e t s w i t h u n a t t r a c t i v e f a c e veneers can be o v e r l a i d w i t h embossed, g r a i n e d , s t a i n e d or t i n t e d s h e e t s (Chudnoff, 1976). There has been d e v e l o p e d , i n r e c e n t y e a r s , a range of p r o d u c t s which- might p r o v i d e an o u t l e t f o r the mixed wood s p e c i e s of the t r o p i c a l f o r e s t s . Examples are composite plywood or p a r t i c l e - c o r e plywood, " p r e s s - l a m " , "wafer board" and s t r u c t u r a l f l a k e b o a r d s w i t h o r i e n t e d f l a k e s or s t r a n d s ( K i n g , 1978). The p r o c e s s of p u l v e r i z a t i o n of t r o p i c a l t i m b e r i s i n e v i t a b l e . The t r e n d i s toward c h i p p i n g , p u l p i n g and p r o d u c i n g f i b r e s r a t h e r than merely p r o d u c i n g l o g s and boards ( K i n g , 1978). T h i s was a l s o the c o n c l u s i o n of the Seventh Commission of the Seventh World F o r e s t r y Congress i n Buenos A i r e s i n 1972 (T o w l e r , 1975). The c o n g r e s s c o n c l u d e d t h a t the b e s t o p p o r t u n i t y f o r the l a r g e -s c a l e use of the d i v e r s e t r o p i c a l f o r e s t r e s o u r c e i s o f f e r e d by p u l p i n g and the p r o d u c t i o n of composite wood p r o d u c t s . The i n e v i t a b i l i t y of t h i s t r e n d i s due t o the p r o j e c t i o n t h a t much of the demand f o r wood from the t r o p i c a l f o r e s t s w i l l , i n the y e a r s ahead, be i n the form of c e l l u l o s e ; consumers, except i n r a r e c i r c u m s t a n c e s , w i l l not r e q u i r e i n d i v i d u a l , p a r t i c u l a r s p e c i e s but w i l l be more i n t e r e s t e d i n wood as wood ( K i n g , 1978). The i n c r e a s e i n the p r o p o r t i o n of hardwoods used as pulpwood i n Japan from n i l i n 1950, 11 p e r c e n t i n 1955, 36 p e r c e n t i n 1960, and 60 p e r c e n t i n 1970 t o 80 p e r c e n t by the second h a l f of the decade of the 70's ( R i c h a r d s o n , 1978; Shimokawa, 1977) i s one pr o o f of the t r e n d . R i c h a r d s o n (1978) a t t r i b u t e d t h i s t r e n d t o the i n c r e a s i n g demand f o r r e c o n s t i t u t e d wood p r o d u c t s throughout 124 the d e v e l o p e d w o r l d . From 1975 t o 2000 the i n c r e a s e i n the w o r l d p r o d u c t i o n of wood-based p a n e l s and paper and paper p r o d u c t s was e x p e c t e d t o i n c r e a s e a t 3 t o 4 p e r c e n t per annum, whereas the p r o j e c t e d lumber consumption was e x p e c t e d t o i n c r e a s e o n l y a t 1.6 p e r c e n t per annum d u r i n g the same p e r i o d ( L i n d e l l , 1979; Stone and Saeman, 1977; Madas, 1974). An a s s o c i a t e d development has been the replacement of l o g s by woodchips as the d e l i v e r e d raw m a t e r i a l s . By 1971 some 75 p e r c e n t of the t i m b e r i m p o r t e d by Japan was i n the form of woodchips. T h i s i s a s i g n i f i c a n t i n c r e a s e from almost z e r o i n 1955, 23 p e r c e n t i n 1960 and 51 p e r c e n t i n 1965 (Shimokawa, 1977). The i n i t i a l s u p p l i e r s were the west c o a s t of N o r t h A m e r i c a , New Z e a l a n d , A u s t r a l i a and S i b e r i a . R e c e n t l y c h i p s of mixed t r o p i c a l hardwoods, rubberwood and mangroves have been import e d from M a l a y s i a , T h a i l a n d , I n d o n e s i a , the P h i l i p p i n e s , Papua New Guinea and B r a z i l ( R i c h a r d s o n , 1978). Another use of wood i s f o r energy. A comprehensive review of the developments i n the use of wood f o r energy i s p r o v i d e d by Smith (1979) as p a r t of a r e v i e w of the s t a t e of the a r t i n complete t r e e u t i l i z a t i o n , s h o r t - r o t a t i o n f o r e s t r y , biomass m o d e l l i n g , and s i m u l a t i o n . The importance of t h i s use i n the d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s has been emphasized by E a r l (1975) and A r n o l d and Jogma (1977), among o t h e r s . The use of wood f o r energy i n M a l a y s i a has been reviewed by Wong and R a z a l i (1980). Wood has been w i d e l y used as f i r e w o o d f o r c o o k i n g , e s p e c i a l l y i n the r u r a l r e g i o n s of M a l a y s i a . The l e s s - a f f l u e n t people who have e a r l i e r c o n v e r t e d t o kerosene, gas and e l e c t r i c i t y f o r c o o k i n g 1 25 c o u l d have been f o r c e d back t o u s i n g wood and c h a r c o a l because of the r i s i n g c o s t s of the new a l t e r n a t i v e s . Other uses of f i r e w o o d and c h a r c o a l a r e i n f a c t o r i e s making b r i c k s , r o o f t i l e s and c h a r c o a l , i n coconut and t o b a c c o m i l l s , and i n s a w m i l l s w i t h k i l n - d r y i n g f a c i l i t i e s . Two l e v e l s of i n c r e a s e i n the volume of m a r k e t a b l e s p e c i e s i n t r e e s g r e a t e r than 46 cm were i n c o r p o r a t e d . In S c e n a r i o 3.1, the m a r k e t a b l e volume i n the next c r o p i s assumed t o i n c r e a s e t o 85 p e r c e n t of g r o s s volume. In the e x i s t i n g p r i m a r y f o r e s t s , about 75 p e r c e n t of g r o s s volume i n t r e e s g r e a t e r than 46 cm i s m a r k e t a b l e . In S c e n a r i o 3.2, the p e r c e n t a g e of m a r k e t a b l e volume i n the next c r o p i s i n c r e a s e d t o 95 p e r c e n t . 6.1.4 S c e n a r i o s 4.1 and 4.2: A n y - s p e c i e s U t i l i z a t i o n These s c e n a r i o s assume t h a t a l l f o r e s t t r e e s , i r r e s p e c t i v e of s p e c i e s , a r e h a r v e s t e d down t o 15 cm dbh. T h i s mix of t r o p i c a l s p e c i e s i s to be used f o r the whole range of p r o d u c t s from p e e l e r l o g s and sawlogs, through paper and paper p r o d u c t s , t o energy. The p o s s i b i l i t y of any-spec i e s u t i l i z a t i o n and a n y - t r e e  h a r v e s t of the f o r e s t s has been shown i n t e s t s i n f o r e s t r e s e a r c h l a b o r a t o r i e s and i n the t r e n d s i n u t i l i z a t i o n i n the wood-based i n d u s t r i e s around the w o r l d i n the l a s t s e v e r a l decades. T e s t s conducted a t the USDA F o r e s t P r o d u c t s L a b o r a t o r y i n Madison, W i s c o n s i n , P u l p and Paper I n s t i t u t e i n M o n t r e a l , Canada, CTFT i n P a r i s , F r a n c e , CSIRO i n Melbourne, A u s t r a l i a , and e l s e w h e r e showed t h a t random m i x t u r e s of mixed t r o p i c a l hardwoods c o u l d be used t o make good paper, hardboard and f i b r e b o a r d . I t 126 was a l s o shown t h a t t h e r e were no i n s u r m o u n t a b l e t e c h n i c a l c o n s t r a i n t s t o p r o d u c i n g p u l p and paper from a random mix of t r o p i c a l woods from which a s m a l l p e r c e n t a g e of the v e r y l i g h t and v e r y dense wood might need t o be e l i m i n a t e d . Even fewer problems were apparent i n m a n u f a c t u r i n g g o o d - q u a l i t y r e c o n s t i t u t e d board from mixed t r o p i c a l hardwoods (Auchter e t a l . , 1978; Kubes e t a l . , 1978; P e t r o f f , 1978; P h i l l i p s et. a l . , 1978) . The f e a s i b i l i t y of u s i n g the mixed t r o p i c a l hardwoods from the f o r e s t s of M a l a y s i a t o produce p u l p has been demonstrated i n t e s t s a t the F o r e s t Research I n s t i t u t e i n Kepong (Peh, 1977; 1978). The I n s t i t u t e has been t e s t i n g the p u l p i n g p r o p e r t i e s of the i n d i g e n o u s s p e c i e s s i n c e 1969. The m a j o r i t y of the l i g h t and medium hardboards were found t o be s u i t a b l e f o r f i n e and wrapping p a p e r s , l i n e r b o a r d and c o r r u g a t i n g medium. C e r t a i n s p e c i e s such as K e r u i n g ( D i p t e r o c a r p u s spp.) might have t o be removed because of t h e i r h i g h r e s i n c o n t e n t . The r e s u l t s of these s t u d i e s and o t h e r r e s e a r c h have been r e f l e c t e d i n the t r e n d s i n wood u t i l i z a t i o n by the t i m b e r - b a s e d i n d u s t r y . The i n c r e a s i n g use of mixed t r o p i c a l hardwood i n the manufacture of p u l p and paper, plywood, p a r t i c l e b o a r d, f i b r e b oard, and o t h e r r e c o n s t i t u t e d wood p r o d u c t s has been d i s c u s s e d e a r l i e r . The o p p o r t u n i t y t o u t i l i z e a l l o r , a t l e a s t , more s p e c i e s i n the f o r e s t would g r e a t l y i n c r e a s e the number of e c o l o g i c a l l y sound o p t i o n s t o s i l v i c u l t u r i s t s and c o u l d p e r m i t the development of t e c h n i q u e s which would not have been p o s s i b l e p r e v i o u s l y when 127 o n l y a r e l a t i v e l y few s p e c i e s c o u l d be u t i l i z e d . W i th any-s p e c i e s u t i l i z a t i o n i t would be more r e a d i l y p o s s i b l e t o manage and use the f o r e s t as i t i s , and l e s s n e c e s s a r y t o r e s t r i c t the c o m p o s i t i o n of f u t u r e f o r e s t s t o the few s p e c i e s t h a t a r e c u r r e n t l y m a r k e t a b l e . H a r v e s t i n g o p e r a t i o n s would be e a s i e r and cheaper i f h i t h e r t o unused t i m b e r were a l s o h a r v e s t e d and the p r o f i t a b i l i t y of the o p e r a t i o n s would be improved by the v a l u e of the o t h e r w i s e unused t i m b e r (Youngs et a l . , 1978; Ewel and Condo, 1978). A n y - s p e c i e s u t i l i z a t i o n c o u l d a l s o be employed t o r a i s e c a p i t a l and t o c l e a r l a n d f o r p l a n t a t i o n s (Palmer, 1978). Four broad s i l v i c u l t u r a l a l t e r n a t i v e s have been suggested by Youngs et a l . (1978) and Ewel and Condo (1978). The f i r s t i s heavy removal c u t t i n g w i t h n a t u r a l r e q e n e r a t i o n . A l l stems of merchantable s i z e c o u l d be h a r v e s t e d i n narrow s t r i p s of about 100 metres (Ewel and Condo, 1978; T i s s e v e r a s i n g h e , 1981). N a t u r a l r e g e n e r a t i o n would f o l l o w because most o b s e r v a t i o n s i n n a t u r a l f o r e s t s i n d i c a t e t h a t these f o r e s t s are adapted t o r e g e n e r a t e a f t e r s t r o n g winds have blown down narrow s t r i p s of t r e e s . Many of the t r e e s i n the new s t a n d s seem to come from p r e - e s t a b l i s h e d advanced growth a l r e a d y s t a r t e d beneath the o l d s t a n d s , a l t h o u g h some new t r e e s a r i s e from e i t h e r s p r o u t i n g or newly g e r m i n a t i n g seeds. Narrow openings would p r o b a b l y enable the n a t u r a l s p e c i e s c o m p o s i t i o n t o be best approximated i n the subsequent c r o p s . The narrow openings would p r e v e n t a g r e a t e r a l t e r a t i o n of m i c r o c l i m a t e which would i n c r e a s e the p r o p o r t i o n of f a s t - g r o w i n g , s h o r t - l i v e d p i o n e e r s p e c i e s , and would reduce the n e g a t i v e e f f e c t s of c l e a r c u t t i n g over a l a r g e a r e a (Youngs e t a l . , 1978). 1 28 A second a l t e r n a t i v e i s p a r t i a l c . u t t i n g . One or more of the s t r a t a i n the f o r e s t s c o u l d be removed as has been done i n the t r o p i c a l s h e l t e r w o o d system, i n which i n f e r i o r s p e c i e s were removed i n s e v e r a l s t a g e s t o l i b e r a t e the p r e f e r r e d s e e d l i n g s , and i n the Malayan U n i f o r m System i n which the m a r k e t a b l e , t o p s t r a t a were removed. R e c e n t l y , the removal of the s m a l l t r e e s has a g a i n been advocated f o r the P h i l i p p i n e s ( N i c h o l s o n , 1970 c i t e d i n Whitmore, 1975). The s m a l l t r e e s were t o be h a r v e s t e d and c h i p p e d so t h a t the growth of young d i p t e r o c a r p s and o t h e r d e s i r a b l e s p e c i e s i n the r e s i d u a l s t a n d i s enhanced. A t h i r d o p t i o n i s t o c l e a r c u t the e x i s t i n g f o r e s t and p l a n t w i t h pure ( s i n g l e s p e c i e s ) or mixed s p e c i e s . T h i s has been the p r a c t i c e i n the e s t a b l i s h m e n t of the i n c r e a s i n g number of f o r e s t p l a n t a t i o n s i n the t r o p i c s . W ith f a s t - g r o w i n g s p e c i e s s u i t a b l e f o r p u l p and/or sawtimber and p e e l e r - l o g s , the p o s s i b i l i t y of s u s t a i n e d y i e l d of these p r o d u c t s from a r e l a t i v e l y modest l a n d a r e a i s o b v i o u s l y a t t r a c t i v e . T h i s o p t i o n would n o r m a l l y i n v o l v e the use of f i r e , h e r b i c i d e s , or m e c h a n i c a l t r e a t m e n t s of the s o i l , s i n g l y or i n c o m b i n a t i o n , i n the p r e p a r a t i o n of s i t e s f o r p l a n t i n g . T h e r e f o r e , i t c a r r i e s more r i s k of s o i l damage and s o i l p e s t s than most s i l v i c u l t u r a l measures t h a t depend on n a t u r a l r e g e n e r a t i o n a l o n e or i n c o m b i n a t i o n w i t h s u p p l e m e n t a l p l a n t i n g (Young et a l . , 1978) A f o u r t h o p t i o n i s the taungya system or a g r i - s i l v i c u l t u r e . Under t h i s o p t i o n , the p l a n t i n g and i n i t i a l t e n d i n g of the new f o r e s t t r e e s are c a r r i e d out by farmers who, as a reward, are p e r m i t t e d t o grow food c r o p s t o g e t h e r w i t h the f o r e s t t r e e s . 129 The c h o i c e of s i l v i c u l t u r a l o p t i o n f o r a p a r t i c u l a r a r e a would depend on the l o n g - t e r m management p o l i c y f o r the p a r t i c u l a r f o r e s t . The p o l i c y would, i n t u r n , c o n s i d e r the e c o l o g i c a l , economic and i n s t i t u t i o n a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of the a r e a . Two d i f f e r e n t r e s o u r c e s need t o be c o n s i d e r e d i n d i s c u s s i n g and p l a n n i n g i n c r e a s e d u t i l i z a t i o n of the f o r e s t s . The f i r s t of the s e r e s o u r c e s i s the e x i s t i n g mature f o r e s t s . Improved u t i l i z a t i o n would i m m e d i a t e l y a v o i d much waste a s s o c i a t e d w i t h the p r e s e n t h a r v e s t i n g of these f o r e s t s . The second r e s o u r c e i s the subsequent c r o p t h a t w i l l grow on the s i t e a f t e r the e x i s t i n g c r o p s has been h a r v e s t e d . The n a t u r e of the l a t t e r i s h i g h l y dependent on the s i l v i c u l t u r a l o p e r a t i o n s c a r r i e d out d u r i n g and a f t e r the h a r v e s t of the former. At l e a s t t h r e e broad t y p e s of subsequent c r o p s can be e n v i s a g e d . I f n a t u r a l r e g e n e r a t i o n i s employed and r e g e n e r a t i o n i s r e a s o n a b l y s u c c e s s f u l a f t e r the h a r v e s t of the e x i s t i n g f o r e s t , the next c r o p would c o n s i s t of mixed t r o p i c a l s p e c i e s . With a r t i f i c i a l r e g e n e r a t i o n the r e s u l t would be f o r e s t p l a n t a t i o n s , e i t h e r of f a s t - g r o w i n g , p r o b a b l y e x o t i c , s p e c i e s f o r pulpwood and/or u t i l i t y t i m b e r or of i n d i g e n o u s s p e c i e s f o r h i g h -q u a l i t y t i m b e r . Only the f i r s t two of the above t y p e s of subsequent c r o p s a r e i n c l u d e d i n t h i s s t u d y . The t h i r d , p l a n t a t i o n s of h i g h -q u a l i t y t i m b e r s p e c i e s , would o n l y be p r o f i t a b l e i f t h e r e were t o be a c o n t i n u e d r e a l p r i c e i n c r e a s e i n b e t t e r - q u a l i t y hardwoods. Spears (1979), w h i l e o p t i m i s t i c t h a t p r i c e s would c o n t i n u e t o i n c r e a s e , warned t h a t we s h o u l d proceed c a u t i o u s l y w i t h l a r g e 130 s c a l e p l a n t a t i o n s of t h i s t y p e , and t h a t such p r o j e c t s s h o u l d i n c o r p o r a t e a comprehensive m o n i t o r i n g program w i t h p r o v i s i o n f o r s y s t e m a t i c r e v i e w of s i l v i c u l t u r a l p e r f o r m a n c e , t i m b e r p r o p e r t i e s , d i s e a s e problems, and the economic r a t e of r e t u r n b e i n g a c h i e v e d . Most M a l a y s i a n hardwoods have been marketed as u t i l i t y t i m b e r ; t h e r e f o r e , p l a n t a t i o n s of premium tim b e r s p e c i e s would p r o b a b l y not be a major u n d e r t a k i n g i n P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a , a t l e a s t not i n the near f u t u r e , because the P e n i n s u l a i t s e l f i s f a c e d w i t h an impending t i m b e r s h o r t a g e . The FDPM i s embarking on a program of compensatory p l a n t a t i o n s t o produce u t i l i t y - g r a d e t i m b e r ( F r e e z a i l l a h , 1980). S c e n a r i o 4.1 assumes t h a t a f t e r a n y - t r e e h a r v e s t o p e r a t i o n s , the h a r v e s t a r e a would n a t u r a l l y r e g e n e r a t e i n t o a second growth c o n s i s t i n g of a mix of s p e c i e s found i n the o r i g i n a l f o r e s t . Very l i t t l e s i l v i c u l t u r a l t r e a t m e n t would be r e q u i r e d . T h i s s i t u a t i o n would occur i f the s i t e s a r e not s u i t a b l e f o r any of the f a s t - g r o w i n g s p e c i e s or f o r premium tim b e r p r o d u c t i o n , or i f budgets, manpower and p l a n t i n g s t o c k a r e inadequate f o r more i n t e n s i v e management. S c e n a r i o 4.2 assumes t h a t a l l the p r o d u c t i v e a r e a s i n the PFE a r e t o be c o n v e r t e d i n t o p l a n t a t i o n s of f a s t - g r o w i n g , e x o t i c s p e c i e s . T h i s s c e n a r i o r e p r e s e n t s an upper l i m i t f o r the l e v e l s of h a r v e s t t h a t can be a c h i e v e d i n P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a . The a c t u a l l e v e l w hich i s p o s s i b l e would depend on the l i m i t a t i o n s imposed by the s i t e s , budget, manpower and a v a i l a b i l i t y of p l a n t i n g s t o c k . The Compensatory F o r e s t P l a n t a t i o n P r o j e c t p l a n n e d t o 131 e s t a b l i s h about 189 thousand h e c t a r e s of q u i c k - g r o w i n g s p e c i e s t o produce g e n e r a l u t i l i t y t i m b e r on a r o t a t i o n of about 15 y e a r s ( F r e e z a i l l a h , 1980; FDPM, 1980b). The p r o j e c t was t o be c a r r i e d out d u r i n g a 15-year p e r i o d s t a r t i n g i n 1981 i n o r d e r t o overcome a s h o r t a g e of timber which i s p r o j e c t e d t o occur from 1996. S c e n a r i o 4.2 assumes t h a t the f i v e s p e c i e s l i s t e d i n the Compensatory F o r e s t P l a n t a t i o n P r o j e c t document (FDPM, 1980b) would be p l a n t e d . These s p e c i e s a r e Gmelina a r b o r e a Roxb., Maesopsi s e m i n i i E n g l . , P i n u s c a r i b a e a v a r h o n d u r e n s i s B a r r and G o l f , A l b i z z i a f a l c a t a r i a (L.) Fosb., and E u c a l y p t u s d e q l u p t a Blume. No i n d i c a t i o n of the a r e a t o be a l l o c a t e d f o r each s p e c i e s was g i v e n . The document s t a t e d t h a t Gmelina a r b o r e a and Maesopsis e m i n i i would be g i v e n h i g h p r i o r i t y because of t h e i r h i g h growth rate', and t h a t some P i n u s c a r i b a e a would be p l a n t e d because of i t s wider range of end uses. However, the r a t e of growth used i n the a n a l y s i s seems t o c o r r e s p o n d t o the low mean ann u a l increment (MAI) e s t i m a t e d f o r A l b i z z i a f a l c a t a r i a and E u c a l y p t u s d e g l u p t a . S c e n a r i o 4.2 assumes t h a t the f i v e s p e c i e s w i l l be p l a n t e d i n eq u a l p r o p o r t i o n and t h a t the MAI f o r the p l a n t a t i o n s i s the average MAI f o r the f i v e s p e c i e s . A l s o , a r o t a t i o n of 20 ye a r s was assumed i n s t e a d of the 15 y e a r s s p e c i f i e d i n the p r o j e c t document i n or d e r t o f a c i l i t a t e t he c a l c u l a t i o n w i t h the long-range l i n e a r programming model i n c o r p o r a t i n g a p l a n n i n g p e r i o d w i t h 10-year i n t e r v a l s . Other e x o t i c s p e c i e s have been p l a n t e d i n e x p e r i m e n t a l p l o t s i n P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a . These i n c l u d e P i n u s k e s i y a Royle ex. Gordon, P. m e r k u s i i Jungh. and de V r . , P. oocarpa S c h i e d e , and 1 32 A r a u c a r i a s p e c i e s ( F i e l d i n g , 1972). The p r o s p e c t s of A g a t h i s  a l b a (Lam.) Foxw., one of the few i n d i g e n o u s c o n i f e r s , were a l s o e x p l o r e d ( I s m a i l , 1966b), but t h i s s p e c i e s has not grown r a p i d l y i n t r i a l p l o t s (FAO, I973e). 6.1.5 S c e n a r i o 5: I n t e n s i v e F o r e s t Management T h i s s c e n a r i o assumes t h a t f o r e s t s on the good s i t e s were i n t e n s i v e l y managed and t h a t the poor s i t e s remain under e x t e n s i v e management. I n t e n s i f i c a t i o n of f o r e s t , management seems t o be one of the most a p p r o p r i a t e a l t e r n a t i v e s t o the c u r r e n t l y -p r a c t i c e d s e l e c t i v e management system i f the l a t t e r were proved t o be u n s u i t a b l e f o r the f o r e s t s of P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a , as some c r i t i c s have c l a i m e d . Tang (1976), i n a M a s t e r ' s t h e s i s s u b m i t t e d t o O x f o r d U n i v e r s i t y , s u g g e sted t h a t s p e c i f i c s u i t a b l e a r e a s i n the h i l l f o r e s t s be i n t e n s i v e l y managed. He warned a g a i n s t a c c e p t i n g a s e l e c t i v e system which r e l i e s on advanced r e g e n e r a t i o n t o produce a second c r o p , e s p e c i a l l y w i t h i n a reduced c u t t i n g c y c l e , because h i s r e s e a r c h i n d i c a t e d t h a t the increment of these t r e e s d u r i n g the f i r s t year a f t e r l o g g i n g was lower and t h a t m o r t a l i t y i n the r e g e n e r a t i n g f o r e s t s was h i g h e r than had been e x p e c t e d . The l a r g e r t r e e s i n the r e s i d u a l s t a n d d i d not show much growth response t o ' r e l e a s e ' , but the s m a l l e r t r e e s may do so v i g o r o u s l y . The t r e n d towards i n t e n s i v e f o r e s t management seems i n e v i t a b l e . The d e c r e a s i n g f o r e s t a r e a would mean t h a t p r o d u c t i v i t y must be i n c r e a s e d t o s u p p l y s i g n i f i c a n t t i m b e r volumes f o r domestic use and/or f o r e x p o r t . L a n l y and Clement (1979) i d e n t i f i e d i n s u l a r S outheast A s i a , of which M a l a y s i a i s a 1 33 p a r t , as the s u b r e g i o n i n the A s i a and the Far E a s t most a f f e c t e d by the l o s s of t r o p i c a l c l o s e d hardwood f o r e s t s . P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a cannot c o n t i n u e t o m a i n t a i n a f o r e s t r y and f o r e s t i n d u s t r i e s s e c t o r based almost e n t i r e l y on the l i q u i d a t i o n of unmanaged p r i m a r y D i p t e r o c a r p f o r e s t s ( L e s l i e , 1979). I n t e n s i v e f o r e s t management would be p o s s i b l e on about 50 p e r c e n t of the p r o d u c t i v e PFE, l o c a t e d m a i n l y on the r i d g e s which a r e r i c h l y s t o c k e d w i t h Shorea c u r t i s i i (Tang, 1976). The s l o p e s and v a l l e y bottoms are u s u a l l y s t o c k e d w i t h fewer and s m a l l e r t r e e s , p r o b a b l y because these a r e a s a r e under the i n f l u e n c e of mass s o i l movement i n the form of e a r t h f l o w and slow s u r f a c e c r e e p ( B u r g e s s , 1975). Tang's (1976) e s t i m a t e of 50 p e r c e n t was p r o b a b l y d e r i v e d from Burgess' (1975) p r o j e c t i o n t h a t o n l y 50 p e r c e n t of the t o t a l a r e a of most of the l o g g i n g compartments i n the h i l l f o r e s t w i l l be worked. N e a r l y 8 p e r c e n t of the h a r v e s t a r e a i s l i k e l y t o be u n p r o d u c t i v e due t o r o c k s and streams, 12 p e r c e n t w i l l be r e s e r v e d f o r roads and road networks, and 30 p e r c e n t a r e too p o o r l y s t o c k e d or too s t e e p t o be e x p l o i t e d by c o n v e n t i o n a l methods. The n a t u r e of the s i l v i c u l t u r a l t r e a t m e n t s t o be c a r r i e d out i s s t i l l not c l e a r because i t would be h i g h l y dependent on f a c t o r s such as the c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of the f o r e s t s t o be i n t e n s i v e l y managed and the commitment of the government t o a l l o c a t e funds and manpower. These f a c t o r s a r e not w e l l u n d e r s t o o d i n M a l a y s i a where f o r e s t r y has m a i n l y been i n the form of the l i q u i d a t i o n of the p r i m a r y f o r e s t s . F o r e s t management i s s t i l l i n an i n f a n t s t a g e . However, the i n t e n s i f i c a t i o n of 134 management would p r o b a b l y s t a r t w i t h p u t t i n g more e f f o r t i n t o l i b e r a t i n g the n a t u r a l r e g e n e r a t i o n i n the r e s i d u a l s t a n d s from competing v e g e t a t i o n and i n p l a n t i n g a r e a s which a r e d e v o i d of such r e g e n e r a t i o n . Other t r e a t m e n t s would be added as they a r e proved t h r o u g h r e s e a r c h t o be b e n e f i c i a l and as budgets and manpower become a v a i l a b l e . These t r e a t m e n t s may i n c l u d e p l a n t i n g w i t h r e g u l a r and g e n e t i c a l l y improved s t o c k , s p a c i n g , t h i n n i n g , p r o t e c t i o n a g a i n s t p e s t s and d i s e a s e , p r u n i n g and f e r t i l i z a t i o n . 6.1.6 S c e n a r i o 6: C o n t i n u a t i o n of the C u r r e n t F o r e s t r y P r a c t i c e T h i s s c e n a r i o r e p r e s e n t s the c o n t i n u a t i o n of the c u r r e n t , v e r y e x t e n s i v e n a t u r e of f o r e s t r y o p e r a t i o n s . L o g g i n g o p e r a t i o n s were assumed t o remove o n l y the l a r g e t r e e s of the most d e s i r a b l e s p e c i e s ; the y i e l d of t i m b e r per h e c t a r e remains a t the l e v e l p r e v a i l i n g i n the l a s t decade. T h i s s c e n a r i o would show the lower bound f o r timb e r p r o d u c t i o n from the p e n i n s u l a . 6.1.7 S c e n a r i o s 7.1 and 7.2: A d a p t a t i o n of the FDPM P l a n These s c e n a r i o s r e p r e s e n t two a d a p t a t i o n s of the p l a n drawn up by the FDPM f o r the management of the f o r e s t r e s o u r c e s of P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a . T h i s p l a n v a s d e s c r i b e d by F r e e z a i l l a h (1980) and Chong (1979a). S c e n a r i o 7.1 assumes t h a t the p r i m a r y f o r e s t s i n the PFE (PPF) were managed on a 30-year c u t t i n g c y c l e and the secondary f o r e s t s i n the PFE (PSF) on a 50-year c u t t i n g c y c l e . The c u t t i n g c y c l e f o r the PSF was s h o r t e r than the 55-year c u t t i n g c y c l e s p e c i f i e d i n the FDPM p l a n ; t h i s adjustment was made t o enable the management s i t u a t i o n t o be i n c o r p o r a t e d i n a model employing 135 10-year p l a n n i n g i n t e r v a l s . The s h o r t e r 50-year c u t t i n g c y c l e was a l s o recommended i n the FAO (1978a) p l a n . The FDPM p l a n based the e s t i m a t e s of y i e l d more on the c u t t i n g c y c l e than on the f o r e s t c o n d i t i o n s . Thus, the p r i m a r y f o r e s t s (PPF) produce l e s s t i m b e r per h e c t a r e than the p a r t i a l l y - h a r v e s t e d f o r e s t s (PSF) because the PPF a r e managed on a s h o r t e r c u t t i n g c y c l e . The subsequent f o r e s t s growing a f t e r the PPF have been h a r v e s t e d were assumed t o be managed on the s h o r t 30-year c u t t i n g c y c l e and t o y i e l d the same tim b e r volume, even though t e c h n i c a l l y they a r e p a r t i a l l y - h a r v e s t e d f o r e s t s . T h i s assumption i s d i f f e r e n t from t h a t i n the b a s i c s c e n a r i o where the r e g e n e r a t e d f o r e s t s i n b oth the PPF and the PSF a r e t r e a t e d i n an i d e n t i c a l manner; they a r e assumed t o y i e l d the same t i m b e r volume under the same c u t t i n g c y c l e . S c e n a r i o 7.2 i s a n o t h e r a d a p t a t i o n of the FDPM p l a n . The o n l y a d d i t i o n i s a n o ther c u t t i n g c y c l e 40 y e a r s l o n g . The p r i m a r y f o r e s t s (PPF) c o u l d be managed under c u t t i n g c y c l e s of 30 and/or 40 y e a r s , and the p a r t i a l l y - h a r v e s t e d f o r e s t s (PSF) under c u t t i n g c y c l e s of 30, 40 and/or 50 y e a r s . The y i e l d s under the 40-year c u t t i n g c y c l e were e s t i m a t e d by l i n e a r , i n t e r p o l a t i o n as f o r the y i e l d under the 50-year c u t t i n g c y c l e . The r a t i o n a l e f o r the i n c l u s i o n of the a l t e r n a t i v e c u t t i n g c y c l e was the s u g g e s t i o n t h a t p l a n n i n g a smooth fl o w of t i m b e r would be f a c i l i t a t e d by s p e c i f y i n g more than one c u t t i n g c y c l e f o r the t i m b e r c l a s s e s (Johnson et. a l . , 1977). By a l l o w i n g a l t e r n a t i v e c u t t i n g c y c l e s f o r the r e g e n e r a t e d f o r e s t s , i n c r e a s e s i n h a r v e s t d u r i n g the e a r l y decades c o u l d be a t t a i n e d . The v a r i a b l e c u t t i n g c y c l e s a l l o w g r e a t e r f l e x i b i l i t y i n s c h e d u l i n g t h e . h a r v e s t . C o n s t r a i n t s 1 36 which would o t h e r w i s e l i m i t the p e r i o d i c h a r v e s t l e v e l s i n a p l a n w i t h a s i n g l e c u t t i n g c y c l e c o u l d be a v o i d e d by a l l o c a t i n g a r e a s t o be h a r v e s t e d t o c u t t i n g c y c l e s of d i f f e r e n t l e n g t h s . The v a r i a b l e c u t t i n g c y c l e i s a l s o c o n s i s t e n t w i t h the M a l a y s i a n s e l e c t i v e management system where the c u t t i n g c y c l e i s de t e r m i n e d s e p a r a t e l y f o r the d i f f e r e n t a r e a s . Thus, i n p r a c t i c e , the c u t t i n g c y c l e c o u l d v a r y between 30 and 50 y e a r s or even l o n g e r . 6.2 Data Data used i n the a n a l y s e s i n c l u d e f o r e s t a r e a , t i m b e r y i e l d , and management p o l i c y i n f o r m a t i o n . 6.2.1 F o r e s t Area The f o r e s t a r e a of P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a , as of the end of 1980, i s shown i n Table 20. The s i z e s of the v a r i o u s c a t e g o r i e s of p r o d u c t i v e PFE and S t a t e l a n d F o r e s t s were based on e s t i m a t e s of the a r e a s as of the end of 1976 (FDPM, 1977a; 1977b), d e d u c t i n g a r e a s l o g g e d i n 1977 t o 1980. Areas of PFE logged i n 1977 t o 1979 and area s of S t a t e l a n d F o r e s t s l o g g e d i n 1977 t o 1978 were a v a i l a b l e i n FDPM (1980a) and FDPM Annual Report 1979. Areas of PFE logged i n 1980 were assumed t o be the same as i n 1979 and a r e a s logged i n the S t a t e l a n d F o r e s t s i n the p e r i o d 1979 t o 1980 were e s t i m a t e d from l o g g i n g a c t i v i t i e s i n 1977 t o 1978. I t was f u r t h e r assumed t h a t i n the p e r i o d from 1977 t o 1980 annual h a r v e s t i n g a r e a s c o n s i s t e d of e q u a l p r o p o r t i o n s of p r i m a r y and p a r t i a l l y - h a r v e s t e d f o r e s t s . There were no p u b l i s h e d d a t a about the p r o p o r t i o n of p r i m a r y and p a r t i a l l y - h a r v e s t e d f o r e s t s Table 22 Forest area as of December 1980 Forest Category Kelantan Trengganu Pahang Johor N.Sembllan /Melaka Selangor Perak Kedah/ Perl 1s/ P.PInang Peninsular Malaysia thousand hectares Permanent Forest Estate 898 579 1525 416 173 203 1014 389 5197 Product 1ve 518 383 961 399 124 130 522 238 3275 Primary 178 108 186 191 46 12 245 76 1042 P a r t i a l l y harvested 340 275 775 208 78 118 277 162 2233 PS1 247 134 457 82 0 70 127 100 1217 PS2 93 141 318 126 78 48 150 62 1016 Unproduct1ve 380 198 564 17 49 73 492 151 1922 Stateland Forest 110 15S 733 0 76 31 0 18 1 124 Total Land Area 1493 1295 3597 1898 830 820 2100 1125 13159 Note: PS 1 « p a r t i a l l y harvested forests In the PFE. logged before 1971 PS2 = p a r t i a l l y harvested forests In the PFE. logged since 1971 1 38 opened up each y e a r ; however, the FDPM p l a n f o r f o r e s t management i n d i c a t e d t h a t , i n 1978, the p r o p o r t i o n s h o u l d have been 40.5 thousand ha p r i m a r y f o r e s t s t o 55.4 thousand ha p a r t i a l l y -h a r v e s t e d f o r e s t s , and t h a t from 1979 onwards the p r o p o r t i o n i s r e v e r s e d : 41.8 thousand ha p r i m a r y f o r e s t s t o 36.8 thousand ha p a r t i a l l y - h a r v e s t e d f o r e s t s (Chong, 1979a). Only the p r o d u c t i v e f o r e s t s i n the PFE and the S t a t e l a n d F o r e s t s t o be c o n v e r t e d t o a g r i c u l t u r e were ex p e c t e d t o produce t i m b e r . The p r o d u c t i v e PFE c o n s i s t s of p r i m a r y f o r e s t s (PPF) and p a r t i a l l y l o g g e d f o r e s t s ( P S F ) . Other a r e a s , such as the p r o t e c t i v e p o r t i o n of the PFE, the N a t i o n a l P a r k s and W i l d l i f e R e s e r v e s , were not e x p e c t e d t o produce s i g n i f i c a n t volumes of t i m b e r . The rubber p l a n t a t i o n s and mangrove f o r e s t s w i l l be c o n s i d e r e d b r i e f l y l a t e r . In S c e n a r i o s 1 t o 5, the p a r t i a l l y - h a r v e s t e d f o r e s t s i n the PFE were f u r t h e r d i v i d e d i n t o those f o r e s t s logged b e f o r e 1971 (PS 1) and t h o s e logged a f t e r 1971 (PS2), i n o r d e r t o r e c o g n i z e the h i g h e r t i m b e r volume due t o growth over l o n g e r time i n the o l d e r PS 1. The p r i m a r y f o r e s t s i n the PFE (PPF) and S t a t e l a n d F o r e s t s t o be c o n v e r t e d t o a g r i c u l t u r e (ACF) were the o t h e r two f o r e s t c l a s s e s . In S c e n a r i o 5, i n t e n s i v e f o r e s t management was s p e c i f i e d on the good s i t e s which were assumed t o c o n s i s t of o n e - h a l f of the p r i m a r y f o r e s t i n the PFE and o n e - h a l f of each of the two p a r t i a l l y - h a r v e s t e d f o r e s t s i n the PFE. There were, t h e r e f o r e , seven management u n i t s as f o l l o w s : 139 Code Management U n i t D e s c r i p t i o n Area PPH good s i t e s i n the p r i m a r y f o r e s t of the PFE 521 PPL poor s i t e s i n the p r i m a r y f o r e s t s of the PFE 521 S1H good s i t e s i n the p a r t i a l l y - h a r v e s t e d f o r e s t s of the PFE l o g g e d b e f o r e 1971 608.5 S1L poor s i t e s i n the p a r t i a l l y - h a r v e s t e d f o r e s t s of the PFE l o g g e d b e f o r e 1971 608.5 S2H good s i t e s i n the p a r t i a l l y - h a r v e s t e d f o r e s t s of the PFE l o g g e d b e f o r e 1971 508 S21 poor s i t e s i n the p a r t i a l l y - h a r v e s t e d f o r e s t s of the PFE l o g g e d b e f o r e 1971 508 ACF SLF t o be c o n v e r t e d t o a g r i c u l t u r e 1124 In S c e n a r i o 6, o n l y two management u n i t s were s p e c i f i e d , namely the PFE (PFE) and S t a t e l a n d F o r e s t s (ACF). The PFE was not broken down i n t o p r i m a r y and p a r t i a l l y - h a r v e s t e d f o r e s t s because the y i e l d d a t a f o r t h i s s c e n a r i o d i d not d i f f e r e n t i a t e between the two f o r e s t c o n d i t i o n s . In S c e n a r i o s 7.1 and 7.2, the f o r e s t a r e a was d i v i d e d i n t o t h r e e management u n i t s . Two of them, the PFE and the ACF, were as i n S c e n a r i o s 1 t o 4.2. The t h i r d management u n i t , PSF, c o n s i s t e d of the p a r t i a l l y - h a r v e s t e d f o r e s t s i n the PFE but was not c a t e g o r i z e d i n t o two age groups as i n S c e n a r i o s 1 t o 4.2. The e x t e n t of the f o r e s t a r e a was as of the end of 1980 as s p e c i f i e d i n S c e n a r i o s 1 t o 4.2 but the p r o p o r t i o n s of PPF and PSF i n the PFE were as i n the FDPM p l a n . The 3275 thousand ha of PFE were assumed t o c o n s i s t of 1252 thousand ha of PPF and 2023 thousand ha of PSF. The FDPM p l a n assumed t h a t the management regime f o r each f o r e s t c a t e g o r y as of 1977 would c o n t i n u e i n t o the second and subsequent f o r e s t s . 1 40 6.2.2 Timber Y i e l d Timber y i e l d was e s t i m a t e d s e p a r a t e l y f o r the e x i s t i n g f o r e s t s and f o r the r e g e n e r a t e d f o r e s t s which grow on the a r e a a f t e r the e x i s t i n g f o r e s t s have been h a r v e s t e d . 6.2.2.1 Y i e l d s from the S t a n d i n g F o r e s t s The y i e l d s from the e x i s t i n g f o r e s t s f o r the v a r i o u s s c e n a r i o s a r e g i v e n i n T a b l e 21. The y i e l d s have been s p e c i f i e d f o r f o r e s t s a t v a r i o u s ages; t h i s was done t o adapt the d a t a t o the Timber RAM model which was employed t o c a l c u l a t e the stream of h a r v e s t s . These ages were not the a c t u a l ages of the f o r e s t t r e e s . The a c t u a l a g e 1 0 i s not e s s e n t i a l i n Timber RAM. Age i s j u s t a means t o a s s i g n y i e l d t o each management u n i t i f h a r v e s t e d i n a p a r t i c u l a r p e r i o d . A more r e l e v a n t p i e c e of d a t a i s the number of y e a r s the t i m b e r c o n t e n t i n p a r t i a l l y h a r v e s t e d f o r e s t s r e q u i r e s t o grow t o the o r i g i n a l volume i n the p r i m a r y f o r e s t s . The e x i s t i n g p r i m a r y f o r e s t s (PPF) were assumed t o be 40 y e a r s o l d , the p a r t i a l l y - h a r v e s t e d f o r e s t s l ogged b e f o r e 1971 (PS1) 20 y e a r s o l d and those l o g g e d a f t e r 1971 (PS2) 10 y e a r s o l d . The s t a t e l a n d f o r e s t s or a g r i - c o n v e r s i o n f o r e s t s (ACF) were assumed t o be of the same age as PS1, i . e . , 20 y e a r s o l d . 0 We do not know the ages of these t r e e s . A r e c e n t workshop on age and growth r a t e f o r t r o p i c a l t r e e s c o n c l u d e d t h a t our i n a b i l i t y t o a c c u r a t e l y d e t e r m i n e age or growth r a t e of t r o p i c a l t r e e s a c c o u n t s f o r our l a c k of u n d e r s t a n d i n g of t r o p i c a l f o r e s t s , one of t h e l e a s t known ecosystems i n the w o r l d (Bormann and B e r l y n , 1981). A s t a t e - o f - k n o w l e d g e r e p o r t (UNESCO/UNEP/FAO, 1978a) c i t e d e s t i m a t e s of 200-450 y e a r s as the maximum ages f o r M a l a y s i a n d i p t e r o c a r p s (Wyatt-Smith, 1968) and up t o 1400 y e a r s f o r B a l a n o c a r p u s H e i m i i K i n g (Poore, 1968). 141 Table 23 Y i e l d from the Ex i s t i n g Forests Secanrio Forest Categories 20 30 Age (years) 40 50 60 70 m3 per ha 1 , 3.1, 3.2 a l l forests 44 63 79 79 79 -2 a l l forests 54 78 96 96 96 -4.1, 4.2 a l l forests 173 208 245 245 245 -5 good s i t e 51 73 91 91 91 -5 poor s i t e 41 59 74 74 74 -5 ACF 44 63 - - - -6 PFE - - 36 36 36 36 6 ACF 24 24 - - - -7.1 , 7.2 PPF - - 55 61 61 61 7.1, 7.2 PSF 65 74 74 74 74 -7.1, 7.2 ACF 28 28 - - - -. Note: ACF = Stateland forests to be converted to agriculture PFE = Permanent Forest Estate PPF = Primary forests in the PFE PSF = P a r t i a l l y harvested forests in the PFE It i s assumed that, at age 40 years, the forests reach dynamic equilibrium where mortality balances growth. Yields are, therefore, constant af 142 In S c e n a r i o s 1, 3.1 and 3.2 the e x i s t i n g PPF would y i e l d 79 m 3/ha i f h a r v e s t e d w i t h i n the next 30 y e a r s , t h a t i s , when they would be 40 t o 60 y e a r s o l d . The e x i s t i n g s t a n d s i n the 20-year-o l d p a r t i a l l y - h a r v e s t e d f o r e s t s (PS1) would y i e l d 44 m 3/ha i f h a r v e s t e d i n the next 10 y e a r s , and 63 m 3/ha i f h a r v e s t e d w i t h i n the f o l l o w i n g decade. The younger p a r t i a l l y - h a r v e s t e d f o r e s t s (PS2) were assumed t o be h a r v e s t a b l e o n l y s t a r t i n g 10 y e a r s from now t o produce 44 m 3/ha when the f o r e s t s would be 20 y e a r s o l d and 63 m 3/ha when they a r e 30 y e a r s o l d . In S c e n a r i o 2 the y i e l d would be h i g h e r because s m a l l e r t r e e s i n the dbh c l a s s 30 t o 46 cm were a l s o assumed t o be h a r v e s t e d . The y i e l d would be even h i g h e r i n S c e n a r i o s 4.1 and 4.2 because a l l t r e e s down t o a dbh of 15 cm were assumed t o be removed i n h a r v e s t i n g . The y i e l d s f o r S c e n a r i o s 1 t o 4.2 were d e r i v e d from the g r o s s m a r k e t a b l e volume i n the f o r e s t of average s i t e , i . e . , a r e p r e s e n t a t i o n of the average f o r e s t of P e n i n s u l a r M a l a y s i a . The ti m b e r c o n t e n t of the average f o r e s t has been e s t i m a t e d - f r o m the 1972 f o r e s t i n v e n t o r y d a t a . The y i e l d from the p r i m a r y f o r e s t s was d e r i v e d by a v e r a g i n g the t i m b e r volumes i n the s u p e r i o r , good and medium f o r e s t s , weighted by t h e i r a r e a s . The y i e l d from the p a r t i a l l y h a r v e s t e d f o r e s t s (PS1 and PS2) was c a l c u l a t e d by a v e r a g i n g the timb e r volumes i n the l i g h t l y - l o g g e d and h e a v i l y -l o g g e d f o r e s t s . The timb e r c o n t e n t s i n these f o r e s t a r e g i v e n i n Appendix IV. The y i e l d from the p a r t i a l l y - h a r v e s t e d f o r e s t s a l s o i n c l u d e d e s t i m a t e s of the growth i n the s t a n d i n g volume of t imber. 143 The g r o s s m a r k e t a b l e volumes i n the f o r e s t s of average s i t e a r e shown i n Ta b l e 24. From the s e g r o s s m a r k e t a b l e volumes, a l l o w a n c e s f o r d e f e c t s and l o g g i n g waste were deducted t o e s t i m a t e net commercial volume. The d e d u c t i o n was 40 p e r c e n t f o r t r e e s l e s s than 60 cm i n dbh and 30 p e r c e n t f o r t r e e s i n excess of 60 cm dbh. These r e d u c t i o n f a c t o r s were d e r i v e d from the FDPMP (FAO, 1978a). M a r k e t a b l e s p e c i e s c o n s i s t e d of a l l the T a b l e 24 Average g r o s s volumes i n the f o r e s t s of average s i t e F o r e s t C a t e g o r y lower dbh l i m i t (cm) 15 30 .46 61 m 3/ha (A) P r i m a r y f o r e s t s A l l s p e c i e s 305.7 211.8 1 55 .6 1 08. 2 M a r k e t a b l e s p e c i e s 187.6 1 45.0 1 1 6 .6 88. 1 (B) P a r t i a l l y h a r v e s t e d f o r e s t s A l l s p e c i e s 216.5 137.6 93 .0 58. 8 M a r k e t a b l e s p e c i e s 126.5 89.4 65 .2 44. 1 s p e c i e s grouped as f u l l y m a r k e t a b l e and p a r t i a l l y m a r k e t a b l e i n the 1972 f o r e s t i n v e n t o r y . I t was assumed t h a t t r e e s p e c i e s which were " p a r t i a l l y m a r k e t a b l e or h a v i n g f u t u r e p o t e n t i a l " (FAO, 197.3a) i n 1972 have, i n the past ten y e a r s , been a c c e p t e d by the ti m b e r i n d u s t r y . In r e a l i t y , some s p e c i e s have been o m i t t e d from the m a r k e t a b i l i t y l i s t , and o t h e r s have been added. Thus the y i e l d of 79 m 3/ha from the p r i m a r y f o r e s t , PFE, i n 1 44 S c e n a r i o s 1. 3.1 and 3.2, was the sum of 70 p e r c e n t of 88.1 m3 i n t r e e s above 61 cm dbh and 60 p e r c e n t of th