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Growth and distribution of port-based global fishing effort within countries EEZs Gelchu, Ahmed Abda 2006

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GROWTH A N D DISTRIBUTION OF PORT-BASED G L O B A L FISHING EFFORT WITHIN COUNTRIES EEZS. B Y A H M E D A B D A G E L C H U B.Sc , Addis Ababa University, 1992 M.Sc., The University of Bergen, 1999. A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL F U L F I L L M E N T OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY In THE F A C U L T Y OF G R A D U A T E STUDIES (Resource Management and Environmental Studies) THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH C O L U M B I A December, 2006 © Ahmed Abda Gelchu, 2006 Abstract Analyzing spatio-temporal evolution of global fishing effort provides an insight into mechanisms driving fishing effort temporal and spatial expansions. It also enables contrasting fishing effort spatio-temporal trends against the well-documented fact of overall global depletion of major commercial fish stocks. This thesis presents analysis of the evolution and spatial distribution of port-based global fishing effort from 1970 to 2000. A fishing effort spatial distribution prediction model, involving qualitative filter criteria and quantitative weighting of fishing grounds, is developed to predict the spatial distribution of port-based global fishing effort within the EEZs of countries. Countries of the world were grouped into four regions for regional analysis and then pooled for an overall analysis of global spatio-temporal trends. The results of the analyses showed that, on global scale, effective fishing effort grew by 600% in the period between 1970 and 2000. This growth led to reduction of total catch per unit of effort (CPUE) by 80% over the same period. The results of the prediction of spatial distribution of port-based global fishing effort showed that the distribution of global fishing effort covered the continental shelves of the world's ocean in the 1990s, with intensely fished areas clustered along the coasts of major fishing nations. On top of offshore range expansion, the results revealed that the centers of massive fish catch and effort concentrations have gradually moved southward by 20° and 10° respectively. Additionally, fuel consumption rate of port-based global fishing fleets was estimated, using an independent estimate of global fisheries fuel consumption. The result gave a fuel consumption rate of 0.1-0.3 liters per horsepower-hour. When this rate is applied to time-series of global fishing fleet, the result showed that the fuel consumption of global fishing fleet grew by 85% between 1970 and 2000. n Table of Contents Abstract , i i Table of Contents i i i List of Tables vi List of Figures vii Acknowledgments x 1. General introduction 1 1.1. The first industrialization and expansion of fisheries (1870s-1950) 1 1.2. The second industrialization and expansion of fisheries (1950 - circa 1980) 2 1.3. The emergence of state jurisdiction regime in fisheries management (1970-1980s) 4 1.4. Fishing effort overcapacity 6 1.5. Fishing effort definition in this study 6 1.6. The role of fishing effort parameter in fisheries management 7 1.7. The rationale for studying spatio-temporal evolution of global fishing effort 8 1.8. Approaches used for modeling spatial distribution of fishing effort 9 1.9. Study Area 10 1.10. Scope of the study 11 1.11. Aims of the study 13 2. General materials and methods 14 2.1. Materials 14 2.1.1. Assembling global fishing effort database 14 2.1.1.1. European-North American region 14 2.1.1.1.1. European fisheries effort data reconstruction 14 2.1.1.1.2. ICES fishing effort data description 15 2.1.1.1.2.1. Vessel statistics data 15 2.1.1.1.2.2. Annual number of days fished 15 2.1.1.1.3. European fishing effort reconstruction after 1974 (1975-2000) 18 2.1.1.1.4. European fishing effort data consolidation (1950-2000) 18 2.1.1.1.5. North American fishing effort data reconstruction 20 2.1.1.1.5.1. NAFO-DFO fishing effort data description 20 2.1.1.1.5.2. FAO vessel statistics data description 21 2.1.1.1.6. North American fishing effort data consolidation 21 2.1.1.2. Asian-Pacific, S. American-Caribbean, African effort reconstruction 22 2.1.1.2.1. F A O data description 22 2.1.1.2.1. 1. FAO vessel statistics data 22 2.1.1.2.1.2. Data on mean number of days fished per year 24 2.1.1.2.2. Asian-Pacific, S. American-Caribbean, African effort consolidation 24 2.1.2. Global maritime ports database 26 2.2. General methods 26 2.2.1. Estimating temporal changes in the efficiency of fishing fleets 26 2.2.2. Modeling spatial distribution of port-based fishing effort 28 2.2.2.1. Fishing effort break down by ports (gravity model 1) 29 2.2.2.1.1. Maritime ports relative importance 29 2.2.2.2. Application of qualitative filter criteria 30 2.2.2.3. Distribution of port-based fishing effort (gravity model 2) 40 i i i 2.2.2.3.1. Model parameterization: Gravity factor 40 3. Results and Discussion 43 3.1. The European-North American region fisheries 43 3.1.1. Background: Industrialization of fisheries in Europe-N. American region 43 3.1.2. Relative status of countries in European-N. American region fisheries 45 3.1.3. Trends in size composition of European-N. American region fishing fleets 47 3.1.4. Evolution of fishing effort in European-N. American region fisheries 52 3.1.5. Distribution of fishing effort in European- N . American region fisheries 58 3.1.5.1. Groundfish fisheries 58 3.1.5.2. Small pelagic fisheries 60 3.1.6. Conclusions 64 3.2. The Asian-Pacific region fisheries 65 3.2.1. Background: Industrialization of fisheries in Asian-Pacific region 65 3.2.2. Relative status of countries in Asian-Pacific region fisheries 70 3.2.3. Trends in size composition of Asian-Pacific region fishing fleets 71 3.2.4. Evolution of fishing effort in Asian-Pacific region fisheries 77 3.2.5. Distribution of fishing effort in Asian-Pacific region fisheries 79 3.2.5.1. Groundfish fisheries 79 3.2.5.2. Small pelagic fisheries 82 3.2.6. Conclusions 85 3.3. The South American-Caribbean region fisheries 85 3.3.1. Background: Industrialization of fisheries in S. American-Caribbean region 85 3.3.2. Relative status of countries in S. American-Caribbean region fisheries 89 3.3.3. Trends in size composition of S. American-Caribbean fishing fleets 91 3.3.4. Evolution of fishing effort in S. American-Caribbean region fisheries 94 3.3.5. Distribution of fishing effort in S. American-Caribbean region fisheries 96 3.3.5.1. Groundfish fisheries 96 3.3.5.2. Small pelagic fisheries 99 3.3.6. Conclusions 102 3.4. The African region fisheries 103 3.4.1. Background: Industrialization of fisheries in African region 103 3.4.2. Relative status of countries in African region fisheries 112 3.4.3. Trends in size composition of African region fishing fleets 113 3.4.4. Evolution of fishing effort in African region fisheries 114 3.4.5. Distribution of fishing effort in African region fisheries 117 3.4.5.1. Groundfish fisheries 117 3.4.5.2. Small pelagic fisheries 120 3.4.6. Conclusions 122 4. Global Summary: Spatio-temporal trends in global fishing effort 123 4.1. Relative contribution of regions in global fisheries 123 4.2. Evolution of fishing effort exerted by global fisheries 127 4.3. Impacts of fishing effort expansion on global fish resources 128 4.4. Distribution of port-based global fishing effort 131 4.5. Global validation of fishing effort distribution prediction 133 4.6. Global port-based fleets fuel consumption rate 135 4.7. Latitudinal shift in the concentration of global fishing effort 137 iv 4.8. Conclusions 140 References 142 Appendix 1 159 Appendix 2 160 Appendix 3 161 Appendix 4 162 v List of Tables Table 2.1. Fishing effort data^comparison with data from independent sources 25 Table 2.2. Estimated technology coefficients of fishing vessels by vessel type 27 Table 3.1. Fishing capacity of the top ten countries in European-North American region 46 Table 3.2. Fishing capacity of the top ten countries in Asia-Pacific region 70 Table 3.3. Fishing capacity of the top ten countries in South American-Caribbean region 89 Table 3.4. Motorized canoes, in percentage of all canoes, in various West African fisheries 108 Table 3.5. Fishing capacity of the top ten countries in African region 112 Table A . l . Tonnage class categories adopted from the Sea Around Us Project 159 Table A.2. Horsepower class categories adopted from the Sea Around Us Project 160 Table A.3. Gear class categories adopted from the Sea Around Us Project 161 Table A.4. Mean days fished per year by vessel class and regions, as used in this study 162 vi List of Figures Figure 1.1. Study area 12 Figure 2.1. Relationship between tonnage capacity (tonnes) and engine power (hp) 16 Figure 2.2. Rate of increase in the efficiency of fishing vessels due to application of technology 28 Figure 2.3 Temporal changes in the average tonnage capacity of port-based fleets 31 Figure 2.4. Global fishing effort concentration by latitude 33 Figure 2.5. Assignment of LF values to latitudes of ports 34 Figure 2.6. Global fishing effort concentration by ports 35 Figure 2.7. PSF value assignment to ports 36 Figure 2.8. Three major target groups and major gear types targeting these groups 38 Figure 2.9. The logical interrelationship between the rules used in the filter criteria 39 Figure 3.1. Temporal changes in the composition of fishing fleets of the European-North America region 47 Figure 3.2. Temporal changes in the inshore and offshore fleets in the total fishing fleets of EU13, non-EU and North American countries 49 Figure 3.3. Temporal trends in total fishing effort in European-North American region 53 Figure 3.4. Temporal trends in total fishing effort in North America, EU13 states and non-EU member states 53 Figure 3.5. Predicted spatial distribution of fishing effort targeting groundfish in North American and European fisheries 59 Figure 3.6. Predicted spatial distribution of fishing effort targeting small pelagic fisheries in North American and European region 61 Figure 3.7. Temporal changes in the size composition of fishing fleets of the Asia-Pacific region 72 Figure 3.8. Temporal changes in the composition of fishing fleets of three selected countries and all other countries in Asia-Pacific region 74 Figure 3.9. Temporal trends in fishing effort in the Asia-Pacific region 77 Figure 3.10. Temporal trends in fishing effort in selected countries and all other countries in the Asia-Pacific region 78 Figure 3.11. Predicted spatial distribution of fishing effort targeting groundfish in Asia-Pacific region fisheries 80 Figure 3.12. Predicted spatial distribution of the fishing effort targeting small pelagic species in the Asia-Pacific region fisheries 83 Figure 3.13. Trajectory of Peruvian fishing effort targeting Peruvian anchoveta 87 Figure 3.14. Temporal changes in the share of the inshore and offshore fleets in the fisheries of S. America-Caribbean region 91 Figure 3.15. Temporal trends in inshore and offshore fleets in selected countries in the South American-Caribbean region 93 Figure 3.16. Temporal trends in fishing effort in the South American-Caribbean region 94 Figure 3.17. Evolution of total fishing effort in Peru and other South American-Caribbean region combined 95 Figure 3.18. Predicted spatial distribution of fishing effort targeting groundfish species in the South American-Caribbean region 97 Figure 3.19. Predicted spatial distribution of fishing effort targeting small pelagic fishes in the South American-Caribbean region fisheries 100 Figure 3.20. Motorized canoes as percentage of total canoes in Ghana 107 Figure 3.21. Temporal trends in the inshore and offshore fleets in African region 113 Figure 3.22. Temporal evolution of total fishing effort in African fisheries 114 Figure 3.23. Temporal evolution of total fishing effort in Northern, Western Southern and Eastern sub-regions of Africa 115 Figure 3.24. Predicted spatial distribution of port-based fishing effort targeting groundfish fisheries in African region 118 Figure 3.25. Predicted spatial distribution of African port-based fishing effort targeting small pelagic fish 121 Figure 4.1. Regional contribution of the European-North America, Asia-Pacific, South America-Caribbean and the African regions to global fishing fleet capacity in the period between 1970 and 2000 124 Figure 4.2. Percentage contribution of the European-North America, Asia-Pacific, South America-Caribbean and the African regions to global fishing fleet capacity in the period between 1970 and 2000 125 Figure 4.3. Regional contribution of the European-North America, Asia-Pacific, South America-Caribbean and the African regions to global fishing fleet capacity (# of vessels) in the period between 1970 and 2000 126 Figure 4.4. Temporal trends in total catch and total effort in global fisheries 127 Figure 4.5. Temporal trends in uncorrected versus corrected effort and uncorrected CPUE versus corrected CPUE 130 Figure 4.6. Predicted distribution of global fishing effort in the period 1970-2000 132 Figure 4.7. Comparison between predicted global fishing effort distribution pattern and the distribution of fuel consumption spatial pattern 134 Figure 4.8. Spatial correlation between predicted fishing effort distribution and fuel consumption intensity distribution 135 Figure 4.9. Trends in the fuel consumption of global fishing fleets from 1970 to 2000 137 Figure 4.10. Comparison between total size of exploited shelf areas along latitudinal gradient with catch and effort concentration patterns in corresponding latitudinal gradients in 1970 and 2000 138 IX Acknowledgements I am very grateful to Dr. Daniel Pauly, my thesis supervisor, for proposing and encouraging me to deal with the challenging issue of global fishing effort development and for supporting my research through the Sea Around US Project, funded by the Pew Charitable Trusts. I am thankful for his careful guidance throughout the entire course of my study and for putting at my disposal his extensive literature collection on global fisheries. I also thank him for his constructive criticisms, for enriching my thesis with his great ideas and for being inspirational to my future professional career. I would like to express my sincere appreciation to Dr. Carl Walters, Fisheries Centre, for his critical support in providing the computer code used in spatial simulations and for his valuable comments on various drafts. I am also thankful to the members of my supervisory committee, Dr. Reg Watson, Dr. Rashid Sumaila and Dr. Les Lavkulich for reviewing several drafts and providing invaluable comments. In particular, I would like to thank Dr. Reg Watson for allowing me to access the source code of his fisheries spatial distribution software (SimMap), from which I learned several V B programming techniques. A number of other people have given me great supports during my study. My special thanks should go to Mr. Keith W. Brikely and Dr. Isabelle Rondeau of the Canadian Department of Fisheries and Oceans for providing data on Canadian East coast fishing ports. Thanks to Dr. Marcos Dominguez-Torreiro of the Universidade de Vigo, Spain, for providing valuable data on the Spanish fishing ports. I would also like to thank Mr. Chris Close and Ms. Brooke Campbell of the Sea Around Us Project, for their assistance in technical GIS matters. My special word of gratitude should go to my wife, Nujuma Abubaker, without whose extraordinary support and encouragement this work would not have materialized. x 1. General introduction Fishing is one of the oldest human activities. Since time immemorial seas and oceans were 'hunting' grounds in which humans caught fish. Thus, it is not a coincidence that human settlements flourished along coastlines around world oceans (Brandt, 1972; Weber, 1994; Lear, 1998; U N , 2005a). Fishing began as a simple form of production in which small quantities of fish were caught using rudimentary gears. But as human population continued growing, it became worthwhile to switch from catching single fish to catching fish in bulk (Brandt, 1972). The opportunity for such mass fish production led to development of fishing fleets and, over time, increasing demand for inexpensive food continued driving the demand for larger fishing fleets. The quality and size of fleets showed a remarkable advance around the last decades of the 19 th century during the first industrialization of fisheries, especially in Europe and North America (Brandt, 1972; dishing, 1988; Pauly.ef al, 2002). 1.1. The first industrialization and expansion of fisheries (1870s-1950) The industrial revolution had already taken hold in Europe and North America in the late 18th century, bringing significant progress in sectors like agriculture and transportation. However, industrialization was not introduced to the fisheries sector until the late 19 th century, when the first steam trawler was introduced to the North Sea in 1875 (Gulland, 1974). The reason for the lag was that the winds that had propelled the pre-industrial fishing fleets were free, but coal cost money (Cushing, 1988). After this delayed introduction, mechanization and expansion of fishing fleets showed steady growth, especially in the North Atlantic region and Japan, until the outbreak of the First World War (WW I) in 1914 (Gulland, 1974; Cushing, 1988, Pauly et al, 2002; Swartz, 2004). This growth was mainly driven by high demand for fish due to population increase, increase in income and the increase of urbanization (Gulland, 1974; Cushing, 1988). WW I brought a sharp end to the fleet expansion trend in much of Europe (Gulland, 1974). The North Atlantic stocks then benefited from four years of fisheries closure (Gulland, 1974; Pauly et al, 2002). However, the resulting increased catches in the aftermath of the War resulted in a rush for new fleet expansion, leading to depletion of several stocks, which in turn brought about financial difficulties for several fishing fleets (Gulland, 1974; 1 Hilborn et al., 2003). The difficulties of the fishing fleets caused by diminished catches were further compounded by the general economic depression of the 1930s (Gulland, 1974). Fishers responded to economic hardships by moving farther into offshore grounds to_ maintain high catch rates, leading to another cycle of competitive race for further expansion of fishing fleets (Gulland, 1974, Cushing, 1988). Similar trends occurred in other parts of the world such as China, Japan, Australia and many other countries (Solecki, 1966; Asada et al., 1983; Bian, 1985; Fujinami, 1989). Though demand for fish and the rate of expansion differed from place to place, the common outcome was increased mechanization and expansion of fishing fleets worldwide. In the years leading up to the Second World War (WW II), despite signs of overfishing and the creation of several international agencies to deal with overfishing concerns, the increasing trend in mechanized fleet expansion continued (Gulland, 1974). Then, WW II had the same effects as WW I for the stocks of the affected regions. After WW II, catches were very high and this led to massive fleet constructions leading to the 'second industrialization' of fisheries. 1.2. The second industrialization and expansion of fisheries (1950 - circa 1980) In developed nations, the second industrialization of fisheries began in the 1950s and lasted until the introduction of 200-nautical mile limits, known as Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZ), became effective in about the mid 1970s (Cushing, 1988; Miles, 1989). The beginning of this era (1950s) corresponds to the aftermath of WW II, an era characterized by a remarkable expansion of fishing effort driven by demand for fish and incentives from a badly needed economic recovery in war affected areas (Gulland, 1974; Pauly et al, 2002). In most developing nations fisheries industrialization had actually begun during this era as a result of technology transfers from developed nations through intergovernmental organizations, non-profit organizations and some organizations with commercial interests (Chidambaram, 1963; Panayotou, 1985; Thiele, 1999). By the 1950s, most of the pre-WWII steam trawlers were scrapped and replaced by diesel-powered vessels. The resulting powerful new fleets, with ample fuel storage tanks provided increased mobility and expanded their range of operation from homeports (Gulland 1974; Stump and Batker, 1996; Pauly et al, 2002). An intense race for fish and resulting 2 declines in coastal stock abundances led to the evolution of huge floating 'factory' vessels capable of staying at sea for weeks and processing large catches at sea (Gulland, 1974; Anon, 2005). The first such 'factory' trawler, named Fairtry, was built in Scotland in 1954; it was 280 feet long and 2600 gross tonnage capacity (Stump and Batker, 1996). Fairtry's successors, the modern 'factory' supertrawlers, can be longer than a football field and capable of catching and processing into various products up to 200 tonnes of fish daily (Anon, 2005). By the mid-to-late 1950s, mass production of these huge trawlers occurred in all major fishing nations of the world (Stump and Batker, 1996). The other important development of this era is the stern-trawling innovation introduced by the pioneers of Fairtry (Gulland 1974). Stern trawling led to greater towing power and improved gear handling, enabling these vessels to haul bigger nets and catch more fish than traditional side-trawlers (Gulland 1974; Stump and Batker, 1996). Likewise, as fishing techniques improved and the size of vessels grew, so did the sizes of gears. The biggest modern trawl net could encircle more than a dozen "Boeing 747 jumbo jets" at its opening (Anon, 2005). A modern longliner can hang thousands of hooks and a modern seine net, assisted by sophisticated fish finding sonars for locating schools of fish, can encircle huge fish schools. A l l these developments greatly enhanced the fishing power of fishing fleets and the technology quickly spread around the world, even to some developing countries, notably to Cuba, South Korea, Taiwan and Thailand (Panayotou, 1985; Thiele, 1999). Massive construction of fishing fleets by all major fishing nations continued throughout 1960s. With national jurisdictions extended only to 12 miles, beyond which there were virtually no constraints on the mobility of these highly effective fleets and no international regulations to comply with, the fishing fleets continued pursuing fish as far as they wanted, causing extensive pressure on the resource base (Thiele, 1999). For instance, the situation in the northwest Atlantic was described by Stump and Batker (1996) as "for anyone crossing the Northwest Atlantic fishing grounds at night, the concentration of factory ships was often so great that their lights resembled floating cities". During these days modern industrial fishing fleets were divided into specialized categories comprising fishing, processing and transport vessels, each category performing specialized duties. 3 The combination of fleet expansion, efficient technologies, fleet specialization and high demand for fish products led to spectacular collapses of some important. fisheries notably the Californian sardine (Sardinops sagax), North Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus), North Sea mackerel (Scomber scombrus), Atlantic menhaden (Brevoortia tyrannus) and Peruvian anchovy (Engraulis ringens) in the 1960s and 1970s (Gulland, 1974; Radovich 1982; Rogers and Van Den Avyle, 1983; Pauly, 1998; Pauly et al, 2002; Bjomdal, 2003). By the 1970s, despite efforts made by international agencies to mitigate overfishing problems, it became evident that overfishing had seriously depleted many of the world's limited fish resources. The need for some sort of management, especially effort control, was publicly called for in different parts of the world (Garcia and Newton, 1997). The debate on how to mitigate overfishing led to the extension of state jurisdictions to 200 miles. 1.3. The emergence of state jurisdiction regime in fisheries management (1970s-1980s). By about the mid 1970s, long distance fishing fleets roamed the entire world's continental shelf areas and even began appearing on the coasts of distant nations (Parsons and Beckett, 1995; Pauly et al, 2003a, Pauly et al, 2003). This expansion, with virtually no geographic limit, was believed to be mainly permitted by open access policy, which treats fish as a 'free for all' resource (Rogers, 1995; Stump and Batker, 1996; Pauly et al, 2002). The open access regime primarily benefited few states, which had the capital and the technology to own modern powerful fleets (Thiele, 1999). Coastal states in developing countries generally gained smaller parts and in many cases they were harmed by foreign fleets catching fish at their doorsteps (Thiele, 199). This inequitable sharing of wealth being as it was, the cumulative effects of the expansion led to severe depletion and collapses of several important fisheries around the world (Parsons and Beckett, 1995; Stump and Batker, 1996). The spectacular declines of important fisheries, the growing sense of failure of international efforts to manage marine resources and increasing recognition of overfishing led to serious questioning of the wisdom behind the principles of open access to fisheries resources, on which long distance fleets based their expansions (Gordon, 1954; MacSween, 1983; Miles, 1989; Garcia and Newton, 1997). Finally in 1974, at the first session of the Third United Nations Conference on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS III) in Caracas, the 4 effectiveness of the principles of open access in achieving sustainable use of fish resources was openly challenged (Miles, 1989). This convention paved the way for unilateral declaration of EEZ by many countries in the late 1970s. Under the EEZ regime, vast ocean shelf areas with an enormous wealth of natural resources, that were traditionally open to all coastal nations, were turned into assets of coastal states (Pauly et al, 2002). Many countries were excluded from their traditional fishing grounds now under the jurisdictions of different countries (MacSween, 1983; Garcia and Newton, 1997; Pauly et al, 2002). The important consequence of this new regime is that virtually all of the world's demersal, coastal pelagic and shellfish populations became encompassed within these zones of extended jurisdictions (Miles, 1989). Further, coastal states were given exclusive authorities to manage fisheries occurring within their extended jurisdictions, with the exception of stocks shared among states and management of highly migratory species (Miles, 1989; Pauly et al, 2003). This change in international access regime forced coastal nations to limit the deployment of their fleets to their national jurisdictions and into the open ocean (MacSween, 1983; Garcia and Newton, 1997). The intended effect of EEZ regime was the mitigation of resource depletion caused by the open access regime, which encourages investment in fishing capacity in order to get a bigger share of the resources in such an open race for fish (Gordon, 1954; Miles, 1989; Pearse, 1996; Pauly et al, 2002). However, the EEZ regime brought about an unintended effect. Most countries, which expelled foreign fleets, turned around and engaged in exactly the same capacity development as the expelled countries had (Rogers, 1995; Pauly and Watson, 2003; Hilborn et al, 2003). Many countries pursued a policy of massive development of their domestic fleets in order to fully exploit fish resources within their national jurisdiction, through direct or indirect subsidies (MacSween, 1983; Hanna et al, 2000; Pauly and Maclean, 2003; Pauly and Watson, 2003). Others designed policies of acquiring huge ocean going vessels capable of offshore processing (MacSween, 1983; Stumper and Batker, 1996; Hanna et al, 2000). Subsidies, which have been estimated in the order of $14-20 billion per year for the world (Milazzo, 1998) and $2.5 billion per year for the North Atlantic alone (Munro and Sumaila, 2002; Pauly and Maclean, 2003), have greatly exacerbated the problem of fishing capacity build up arising from open access regime. The resultant effect was further expansion of the already over- expanded global fishing fleets, 5 leading to a large global fishing effort capacity (MacSween, 1983; Hanna et al, 2000; Hilborn et al, 2003; Pauly and Watson, 2003). 1.4. Fishing effort overcapacity As described so far, the global race for fisheries development has led to large increase in fishing effort capacity, well in excess of the global capacity needed to exploit fisheries at optimal levels (Mace and Gabriel, 1999; Hanna et al, 2000). The issue of overcapacity is the presence of too many boats in a growing number of fisheries, leading to overfishing (Thiele, 1999; Munro and Sumaila, 2002; U N , 2005b). Studies have shown that major fishing nations of the European Union could cut their fishing capacity by 40%, Norway by 60%, with no reduction in catches, while the largest U.S fishery, the Seattle-based trawlers targeting the North Pacific pollock (Theragra chalcogramma), had the capacity to catch 2-3 times the total allowable catch every year (Stump and Batker, 1996). In every major fishing nation, the situation is the same: too much fishing pressure on depleted stocks was fueling the downward spiral of fisheries resources (Stump and Batker, 1996; U N , 2005b). From the point of view of society as a whole, overcapacity equals economic waste, harmful from both conservation and economic efficiency points of view (Gordon, 1954; Rogers, 1995; Christy, 1997a; Thiele, 1999). From a conservation point of view, overcapacity is capable of depleting all important fish stocks in the oceans. From an economic efficiency perspective, it is a wasteful economic activity, as equal amount of catches could be achieved with much smaller fishing effort (Rogers, 1995; Christy, 1997a; Thiele, 1999; U N , 2005b). Global estimates put economic loss due to overcapacity somewhere between $50 billion and $60 billion US dollars per year (Stump and Batker, 1996; Christy, 1997a). 1.5. Fishing effort definition in this study Fishing effort is a surrogate variable representing all inputs used to catch fish (Greboval, 1999). Thus, it can be defined as the means by which fishers achieve catch during a given period (Le Pape and Vigneau, 2001). Quantitatively, effort can be divided into nominal effort (f), representing the overall effort used during a given period and effective 6 fishing effort (fe), representing the fishing pressure exerted by fishers on fish stocks. These two concepts can be linked to vessel size and power as: f*p • (i.i) where fe = effective fishing effort; / = nominal fishing effort (number of vessels x number of fishing days); p = vessel fishing power (horsepower3). It is generally assumed that the fishing power of a boat is roughly proportional to its engine power or tonnage capacity (Gulland, 1983; Wilson, 1999; Marchal et al, 2002). Following this general conceptual framework, fishing effort in this study was estimated as the product of the number of vessels in a vessel class, times the mean annual number of days fished by a vessel class and the mean engine power of the vessels in a vessel class. The unit used is thus horsepower-days. Other than serving as a proxy for fishing power, another advantage of including engine power in the computation of fishing effort is that effort levels can be related to energy consumption of fisheries (Wilson, 1999; Tyedmers et al, 2005). This provides a means of comparing fishing effort between diverse fisheries in terms of fuel consumption, or the amount of energy consumed per kilogram of fish caught (Tyedmers et al, 2005). 1.6. The role of fishing effort parameter in fisheries management Fishing effort plays a pivotal role in stock abundance, fishing mortality and fishing cost estimations. As such it is an essential parameter in the calculations needed to bring about a sustainable balance between available fish resources and level of fishing effort deployed to exploit the resources. Traditionally, greater attention has been put on the analysis of catches, while minimal concern was given to the analysis of fishing effort dynamics (Hilborn and Walters, 1992). Such lack of emphasis is due to a consensus that treats fishing effort as a policy variable that can be adjusted by managers at will (Hilborn and Walters, 1992). In recent years, however, fisheries scientists begun to recognize that fishing effort is indeed a dynamic variable that responds to spatio-temporal changes in resource abundance and management regulations in a predictable fashion. As a result of this important a 1 Horsepower (UK) = 0.7457 Kilowatt (kW) 7 recognition, there have been several studies on modeling spatial distribution of fishing fleet (Hilborn and Walters, 1992; Gillis et al, 1993; Gray and Kennedy, 1994; Oostenbrugge et al, 2001; Caddy and Carocci, 1999; Walters and Bonfil, 1999; Walters and Martell, 2004). 1.7. The rationale for studying spatio-temporal evolution of global fishing effort The rationale for studying temporal evolution of fishing effort is that, ideally, fishing effort is expected to respond to changes in the abundance (assumed proportional to profitability) of fish it targets. In such an ideal world, historical trends in fishing effort could be an indicative of the direction of historical abundance changes in target stocks. But in the real world, where subsidies and application of fish finding technologies dampen the decline of target fish abundances, the trajectory of fishing effort can become disconnected from the historical abundances of target stocks. Thus, studying the temporal evolution of fishing effort helps to examine these scenarios on a global scale and thereby enables contrasting the results of the analysis against the well-documented fact of overall global depletion of major commercial stocks. On the other hand, a study on trends in the recent past should provide a sound basis for anticipating the types of problems likely to emerge in the future. Similarly, there are several reasons why modeling spatial distribution of fishing effort is critically important. The first is the fact that different fishing grounds usually receive differential fishing pressure, due to differences in the distance of fishing grounds from major ports and differences in relative productivity of fishing grounds (Hilborn and Walters, 1992; Walters and Martell, 2004). In this regard, offshore grounds are believed to have acted as a 'refuge' or buffers against overfishing (Pauly et al, 2002; Walters and Martell, 2004). In the face of rapid developments in vessel sizes, fishing technologies and cost-cutting mechanisms, these refuge grounds are not inaccessible anymore, so that fisheries scientists must engage the challenge of assessing the likely consequences of fisheries expansion to remote grounds (Walters and Martell, 2004). The second rationale why spatial modeling is important is the fact that fisheries are embedded in spatial ecosystems, and thus spatial distribution of fisheries is essential to understanding the underlying ecosystem dynamics and effects of fishing on ecosystems (Pauly et al, 2003b). Thirdly, spatial representations of fisheries (maps) are very efficient tools by virtue of their power of conveying huge amounts of information. 8 1.8. Approaches used for modeling spatial distribution of fishing effort Traditionally, spatial models used to predict fishing effort distribution are based on three major approaches. One is the gravity model that distributes total effort to available grounds based on an index of attractiveness to different grounds. The index of attractiveness is some value that is estimated as a function of fish abundance at any given ground, or a combination of abundance (assumed proportional to revenue) and cost of fishing in each ground (Caddy, 1975). The second approach is based on the concept of Ideal Free Distribution Theory (IFD) (Fretwell, 1972). In fisheries context, the IFD approach draws parallels between fishers behaviors and that of natural predators in the way they pursue their prey (Hilborn and Walters, 1992; Gillis and Peterman, 1998; Walters and Martell, 2004). This approach presumes fishers' 'ideal' knowledge of resource abundance, differences in catch rates between different grounds, and 'free' movement of fishers between fishing grounds (Gillis et al, 1993; Gillis and Frank, 2001; Oostenbrugge et al., 2001). It assumes that fishers redistribute their effort so that no ground stands out in productivity, i.e., grounds with high catch rate are fished harder and thus fishers drive down local density of fish, while grounds with low catch rate are avoided (Gills and Peterman, 1998; Walters and Bonfil, 1999). The third approach is the individual-based modeling approach (IBM), in which detailed information on fishers' decision rules are collected, and this information is used to predict individual responses. Individually predicted responses are then summed up to give total effort predictions (Walters and Martell, 2004). These models vary in complexity and data requirements. However, the superiority of any of these models in predicting fishing effort distribution has not yet established (Wilen et al, 2002; Walters and Martell, 2004). This study is based on the gravity model approach and extends on it by including several qualitative filter criteria before the quantitative gravity model is applied. The filter criteria are: 1) the technical capacity of fleets to reach fishing grounds; 2) geographical location of homeports; 3) bilateral access rights to fishing grounds and 4) 'fishability' of fishing grounds (impacted, e.g, by ocean ice cover). These qualitative filter criteria are imposed to determine the most likely area(s) where fishing fleets, based at known ports, would likely operate before the actual quantitative model is applied. Thus, this model 9 captures fundamental factors relevant to spatial extent of fishing operation in addition to factors considered in traditional gravity models. When the filter criteria are met, the quantitative model assumes that the port-based fishing effort distribution is determined by fish abundance (assumed to be proportional to ocean primary productivity) in different fishing grounds and costs of fishing at each fishing ground (assumed to be proportional to distance of fishing grounds from homeports). The rationale for using ocean primary productivity as proxy for fish abundance is that high primary productivity areas are usually associated with food and hence high densities of organisms at higher trophic levels (Iverson, 1990; Ware and Thomson, 2005). As a result, fish are generally more abundant in areas of high primary production (Nanda, 1986; Ware and Thomson, 2005), with some exceptions, e.g.,; salmon, which are found to gather offshore away from areas of high primary production (C. Walters, Fisheries Centre, pers. comm.). Similarly, distance from port is also assumed to be an important linear contributor to fishing cost (Walters and Martell, 2004). The assumed linearity between distance from port and fishing cost is related to fuel consumption. Fuel consumption is generally believed to account for a significant proportion of total fishing cost; in some fisheries it accounts for as high as 60% of total fishing cost (Sumaila, et al., 2006). Further, as coastal stocks became depleted, fleets expanded their range of operation in pursuit of offshore resources. As a result, fuel cost is expected to increase as a function of distance from port. As function of these two variables, the model generates gravity weights for each fishing ground. Finally, the total fishing effort is allocated to fishing grounds in proportion to the gravity weights to generate the fine scale distribution of fishing effort within the area(s) determined by the filter criteria. The results of the analyses are displayed in GIS format maps. 1.9. Study Area The geographic span of the study was delimited by countries EEZs. Further, due to the broad spatio-temporal scale of this study, it is not appropriate to present the results of the analysis on country-by-country basis. Rather, the nations of the world were grouped into four different regions based on geographical proximity and/or rough similarity in the technical capacity of their fishing industry. Accordingly, four different regions were defined: 10 European0-North American0 region, Asian-Pacific region, South American-Caribbean region and African region (Fig. 1.1). F A O also uses similar country groupings. It should be noted here that some countries do not well fit into these defined geographic categories due to relative advance in their technical capacity and/or history of their fisheries management. Examples include Australia, New Zealand and Japan in Asia-Pacific region and South Africa and Namibia in the African region. The peculiarity of these exceptional countries will be described when discussing the results for different regions. Associated information, such as exploited shelf (shallow shelf areas of about 200 m depth, exploited year-round) and unexploited shelf areas (shelf areas not exploited year-round due to ice concentrations), which will be used in the discussions on spatial patterns of global fishing effort distribution, are depicted in Fig. 1.1. b 'Europe' includes the far East regions of Russia. 0 'North America' does not include Mexico. 11 Fig. 1.1. Study area depicting the four regions, countries' EEZs, exploited and unexploited shelves, Region 1 = Africa; Region 2 = Asia-Pacific; Region 3= South America-Caribbean; Region 4= Fiirnnpnn-Mnrth Amprira 1.10. Scope of the study This study comprises two parts. The first deals with the temporal evolution of fishing effort in the period 1970-2000. This part of the study is aimed at evaluating long-term changes (on an annual or decadal basis) in fishing effort capacity evolution as opposed to short-term changes (on days/months basis) in fleet deployment activities or fleet tactics. The second part deals with modeling the spatial distribution of fishing effort for the same period. Spatial analyses are done for groundfish fisheries and small pelagic fisheries separately in order to better explain fishing effort spatial dynamics as these fisheries are often targeted by different gear types. 12 1.11. Aims of the study The aims of this study are to: 1. Trace the evolution of fishing effort as well as fleet characteristics over time in different parts of the world, and investigate the patterns in relation to resource depletion over time (e.g., gradual transition of major fishing fleet from small, low-power, vessels to larger more powerful vessels); 2. Analyze patterns in catch rates over time; 3. Develop a method of modeling fishing effort distribution that is independent of catches; 4. Apply the model and map out global fishing effort distributions for the world's major fisheries; 5. Analyze spatial patterns in fishing effort concentration. 13 2. General materials and methods 2.1. Materials 2.1.1. Assembling global fishing effort database The fishing effort data assembled in this study comprised only motorized fishing effort. Hence unmotorized fishing effort is not part of this study, the contribution of unomotorized effort is modest in most of the major fishing nations. 2.1.1.1. European-North American region For the purpose of reconstructing the region's fishing effort data, the region was split into two sub-regions: European and North American sub-regions. This sub-division was required mainly because of differences in quantity and quality of data obtained from countries in these regions, which required different methods for fishing effort reconstruction. Several steps were followed to standardize and re-express the European and North American fishing effort data in horsepower-day units. 2.1.1.1.1. European fisheries effort data reconstruction (1950-1974) In the European sub-region, fishing effort data reconstructions are based on two different types of data: the first are the vessel statistics data reported to the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) and the Food and Agricultural Organization of United Nations (FAO). The second are the actual detailed annual number of days fished by different vessel categories, extracted from ICES reports at different times. These two datasets were combined to build the fishing effort database of European fisheries. As is commonly the case when dealing with large-scale analysis, several broad assumptions were made at various stages in the data compiling procedure. However, in order not to oversimplify the complexity of the system, broad assumptions were limited to relatively short time frames, wherever and whenever possible, as will be explained in the appropriate sections below. 14 2.1.1.1.2. ICES fishing effort data description For countries mainly fishing in ICES areas, two different fishing effort datasets were compiled by ICES over the years from 1950 to 1974 (ICES, 1950-1974). The contents of each dataset are explained as follows: 2.1.1.1.2.1. Vessel statistics data This dataset contain time series of vessel numbers data compiled by country and tonnage class or horsepower class and total gross registered tonnage (GRT d) for major fishing nations in the European region over the same period. 2.1.1.1.2.2. Annual number of days fished The annual number of days fished data contain detailed number of days fished by different vessel classes, compiled by country, area, tonnage class, gear type, horsepower class and total days/or hours fished per year, for some fisheries for which effort data were available. Information missing in this dataset is the number of vessels involved, and thereby annual average number of days fished per vessel in different vessel categories. This information is necessary to generate a complete database of fishing effort for European region. The tonnage class, horsepower class and gear class categories used in the ICES reports are found to be similar to the categories used in the Sea Around Us Project database. Thus, the Sea Around Us Project categories are directly adopted in this study. The actual intervals and codes used are given in Appendices 1, 2 and 3, respectively. The country coverage of these two data types varies, while both covered the same time period until ICES stopped publishing fishing effort data in 1974. The detailed annual number of days fished data were encoded on a decadal basis to account for possible temporal changes in fleet activities, as it was not possible (due to sheer size, covering several books), in the context of this thesis, to encode it in its entirety. Vessel statistics data were encoded in their entirety from 1950 to 1974. d Gross Register Tonnage represented the total measured cubic content of the permanently enclosed spaces of a vessel, with some allowances or deductions for exempted spaces, such as living quarters (1 gross register ton = 100 cubic feet = 2.83 cubic meters). 15 Each of the datasets, taken separately, lacks some important information. The vessel statistics data lack gear types used and total number of days fished/year, while the detailed days fished data lack vessel numbers, and were not available for all countries. Hence, they cannot represent a complete account of the fishing effort of the region. Therefore, using any of these datasets alone would result in poor estimation of the overall European fishing effort. For that reason, the information contained in the vessel statistics dataset was combined with the detailed fleet activity dataset to create a reasonably complete fishing effort database for European fisheries. On the other hand, the availability of these two qualitatively different datasets (vessel statistics data representing nominal fishing effort and the number of days fished data showing a profile of what fleet activity have looked like) created a unique opportunity for large-scale analysis of the evolution and distribution of fishing effort in the European region. The profiled vessel statistics dataset were taken as a reasonable estimate of nominal fishing effort, while the detailed fleet activity dataset was taken as a representation of the effective fishing effort exerted by different vessel classes operating in the region. Before combining the two data types, the mean tonnage capacity of each tonnage class was estimated as the ratio of the total tonnage reported for each tonnage class to the number of vessels reported in that tonnage class category. Vessels engine power (hp) was in turn estimated from mean vessel tonnage capacity based on the relationship observed between vessel tonnage capacity and its engine power, as depicted in Fig. 2.1. 6000 -, 10 100 1000 10000 Tonnage of wsssels (T) Fig. 2.1. Relationship between tonnage capacity (tonnes) and engine power (hp). Data from Lloyd's Register (accessed in 1999). 16 Visual inspection of the scatter plot and the fitted line in Fig. 2.1 shows that there is a close exponential relationship between tonnage capacity of vessels and their engine power. This relationship was used to estimate the engine power of vessels from their mean registered tonnage capacity. The next task was to break down the vessel data further by gear classes, and then estimate mean number of days fished/year for vessels of each tonnage class, horsepower class and gear class combination. Breaking down the vessel data by gear class was done in proportion to the total number of days fished per year per gear class vessel type data reported in the detailed fishing effort dataset. Accordingly, the total number of vessels of a given tonnage class reported to ICES by member states was broken down by gear classes in proportion to the total number of days fished per year by each gear class for any given year and country as reported in the detailed effort data in the years 1950, 1960 and 1973. The assumptions made at this stage were: 1) gear class patterns and their corresponding total number of days fished per year reported in 1950 was taken as a representative profile of the overall pattern of gear profile and mean annual fishing days of early 1950s situations (1951-1955); 2) the 1960 gear-days fished pattern was a representative profile of the overall gear-days fished pattern of the late 1950s and early 1960s (1956-1965); and 3) the profile for 1973 was representative of the overall gear-days fished pattern of late 1960s and of the early 1970s (1966-1974). Then, for each range of years, the recorded vessel statistics data by tonnage classes were broken down by gear classes. Mean annual number of days fished for each tonnage class-gear class categories were estimated as the ratio of total number of days to the total number of vessels in corresponding categories of vessels. Since the assumptions to break down the vessel data by gear class over time was limited to a relatively short time frame, this effort reconstruction method is not expected to bias the effort estimation in any significant way. ICES stopped collecting fishing effort data in 1974 and, therefore, effort compilation for the remaining years was based on FAO reports and was organized as explained below. 17 2.1.1.1.3. European fishing effort reconstruction after 1974 (1975-2000) F A O began collecting vessel statistics data from member countries from 1970 on (FAO, 1998). By the time these data were compiled, FAO released its global vessel statistics data for the period 1970-1995. In that report, vessel data were compiled by country, total tonnage and gear type in five-year intervals. These data were encoded for the years 1980, 1990 and 1995. For each country, the ICES vessel statistics data (1950-1974) and the F A O data for 1980, 1990 and 1995 were used in trend analysis to estimate the rate of change in vessel numbers over time. The resulting trend line was used to interpolate vessel statistics data for missing years and to extrapolate for the years after 1995 for all countries using linear regression (equation 2.1). V,+l=(l + b)*V, • (2.1) where t = year; Vt+i — Number of vessels in the year to be estimated; V( = Number of vessels one year before the year to be estimated; b = Slope of the trend (the rate of change over time). For all Mediterranean countries, and the former USSR and successor states, only FAO data were used for fishing effort reconstruction, as no other sources of effort data were available. Mean days fished per tonnage class-gear class categories per year were estimated from average information of corresponding vessel classes from other European nations over time. 2.1.1.1.4. European fishing effort data consolidation (1950-2000) Unfortunately, most countries have reported the types of gear class and tonnage class break down of their vessels to FAO only incompletely. Some countries reported only few gear types and tonnage classes. When contrasted against the gear class and tonnage class profiles reported to ICES for some countries, the FAO data appear to be an under-representation of gear class and tonnage class profile of fleets, at least for some countries in 18 the region. Thus, only the vessel statistics figures were taken from FAO dataset, and they were broken down by tonnage class and gear class using the more detailed pattern of gear class and tonnage class profiles reported to ICES in most recent year (1973). The breakdown was done in proportion to the mean annual number of days fished by each tonnage class and gear class vessels as reported in ICES data in 1973. The idea of using 1973 gear class and tonnage class pattern to break down vessel statistics data by gear class and tonnage class in the 1980s and the 1990s may appear questionable. But i f we look at the history of fishing gear development carefully, most of the contemporary fishing gears used in different fisheries were all developed before or in the 1970s (Brandt, 1972, Hutchings and Myers, 1995). Hardly any major fishing gear was introduced in the world fisheries in recent decades. Thus, it is reasonable to assume that the types of fishing gears seen in today's fisheries are not very much different from what they were in the 1970s, although we can see some modifications to the original design (e.g., size increase, to increase efficiency (see below)) or to fulfill new requirements, e.g., to reduce by-catch (Ferno and Olsen, 1994). However, estimating the proportion of different tonnage class vessels in the 1990s fisheries based on the 1970s information is difficult. Obviously, in the 1970s, the European fleet contained a greater proportion of small inshore vessels. Though that pattern has shifted over time, mainly because of inshore stock depletion and subsequent need for larger vessels to access offshore stocks, the shift was not a major one in this particular region, i.e. the average size of fishing vessels did not increase in a major way after the 1970s (Schmidt, 1977). This argument is supported by the data compiled for this study. The main reason is the decrease of demand for long distance vessels as a result of declaration of EEZ, which significantly curtailed the importance of distant water fishing. Thus, it is believed that the adoption of 1973 tonnage class pattern to break down vessel data of recent years by tonnage classes does not significantly underestimate fishing effort exerted by bigger tonnage class vessels. And of course, a possible small underestimation of one vessel class is expected to be compensated for by corresponding proportional overestimation of the other vessel class, making the net effect essentially negligible. As mentioned earlier, for the former USSR and successor states and the Mediterranean countries, the tonnage class and gear class information reported in F A O 19 dataset were used and mean days fished per tonnage class-gear class combination per year was estimated from average information on corresponding vessel classes from other European nations over time. Finally, fishing effort for each gear class-vessel class category in each country was calculated as: Effort(. . k = VesselNumber;;. k * MeandaysFished) • k * EngineHPj j k (2.2) where: Ejfortij^— fishing effort of tonnage class i using gear class j in year k; VesselNumberijtk~ total number of vessels of a tonnage class i using gear class j in year k; Meandaysfishedij /c=mean days fished by tonnage class i using gear class j in year k ; EngineHpij^mean engine power of tonnage class i using gear class j in year k. 2.1.1.1.5. North American Ashing effort data reconstruction The North American sub-region, as defined here, consists of two important fishing nations: Canada and the United States of America (USA). Fishing effort data for these countries were compiled from two sources: (1) Data on number of days fished by different tonnage class and gear class vessels from the Canadian Department of Fisheries and Oceans (DFO) and the Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Organization (NAFO) obtained by the Sea Around Us Project, and (2) Vessel statistics data obtained from FAO reports. 2.1.1.1.5.1. NAFO-DFO fishing effort data description The detailed annual number of days fished data from DFO (obtained from Sea Around Us Project) contain total number of days fished by tonnage class-gear class categories and the total horsepower of the vessels in the period 1986-2000. The Canadian DFO dataset lack data from British Columbia fisheries, and it also lacks the number of vessels involved that resulted in the total number of days fished per year by tonnage class-gear class categories. The N A F O data contain total number of days fished by tonnage class-gear class categories for the period 1960-1997 for both Canada and the USA. It lacks the number of vessels involved that resulted in the total number of days fished per year by tonnage class-20 gear class categories. Vessel statistics data from FAO website were used as will be explained in section 2.1.1.1.5.2, below. And both the DFO and N A F O data lack mean tonnage capacity for all tonnage class-gear class categories. The missing mean tonnage capacity for tonnage class-gear class categories were estimated from mean horsepower information using the relationship in Fig. 2.1. Overall data are lacking from the South, West and Alaskan regions of the USA and the Canadian province of British Columbia. Broad assumptions were made to account for the missing data, as explained in section 2.1.1.1.6. 2.1.1.1.5.2. FAO vessel statistics data description The FAO vessel statistics data contain vessel numbers data by tonnage class, gear class and total tonnage by each category of vessels from 1970-1995 (FAO online database). For the years where vessel statistics data were missing in the FAO dataset (1996-2000) they were estimated by extrapolation as explained in section 2.1.1.1.3. 2.1.1.1.6. North American fishing effort data consolidation The vessel statistics dataset from FAO were taken as a reasonable estimate of nominal fishing effort while detailed annual number of days fished by different gear and tonnage categories data from DFO and N A F O were taken as a benchmark representation of fleet activity of different fleet types in the region. For Canada, the DFO dataset covered the period 1986-2000; for the years 1970 to 1985 annual number of days fished by tonnage and gear class category from N A F O data were used. For USA, N A F O data covering the period 1960-1997 was used. Since detailed gear and tonnage class profile data were available from N A F O and DFO datasets, only vessel numbers were taken from the F A O data. The two data types (days fished and vessel data) were combined by assigning vessel numbers to each tonnage class-gear class categories, reported in the detailed N A F O and DFO data, in proportion to the annual number of days fished by each category per year. The combination of these two datasets is expected to give a reasonable estimate of North American fishing effort. The mean number of days fished per vessel was in turn estimated as the ratio of the annual number of days fished and the number of vessels assigned. Since the annual number of days fished data were not available from all coasts of Canada and the USA, 21 an assumption was made that the annual mean number of days fished by tonnage class-gear class categories of vessels do not significantly vary between the East and West coasts of Canada and of the USA. As in the case of Europe, total fishing effort was calculated using equation 2.2. This enabled compilation of comprehensive database of fishing effort, for the European-North American region, detailed by country, year, number of vessels, tonnage class, gear class, mean tonnage, total tonnage, mean engine power, total engine power, mean annual number of days fished and total fishing effort. This database covered 39 major fishing nations of the region. In Europe and North America, unmotorized fishing vessels are virtually non-existent (Petursdottir et al, 2001). Hence, the fishing effort data compiled here accounts for nearly all fishing pressure exerted on the stocks of this region. 2.1.1.2. Asian-Pacific, S. American-Caribbean and African effort reconstruction For these regions reconstruction of fishing effort was based on F A O vessel statistics data and mean annual fishing days data extracted from reports compiled by FAO from selected countries in respective regions. The contents of these datasets are described as follows: 2.1.1.2.1. FAO data description 2.1.1.2.1.1. FAO vessel statistics data These data were compiled for the years 1970-1995. The data contain vessel statistics by tonnage class, gear class and total tonnage (GRT) for each tonnage class-gear class category. However, there are some serious discrepancies in this dataset. Some countries tend to report only highly mechanized fleets, such as trawlers, while reporting most of their other inshore fleets (which account for sizeable share of their fishing effort) under an 'unspecified fishing fleet' category for which fishing gear information is missing. Some other countries did report most of their major fleets, but still reported some data under this unspecified fishing fleet category. It was felt that excluding these unspecified fishing fleets would result in gross underestimation of the regions' fishing effort. For that reason, it was decided to assign gear 22 classes to these 'unspecified fishing fleets' categories on a case-by-case basis, using country-specific ancillary information. In order to break down the data reported as 'unspecified fishing fleets' by gear class, two different type of information were sought: lists of fleet segments using different gears operating in those countries, and those fleet segments' relative contributions to the catches from various sources. The first type of information was extracted from F A O country profile reports (FAO, 2005), while the second was retrieved either from various FAO reports or from the Sea Around Us Project catch-by-gear-type database (Watson et al., 2006a; Watson et al., 2006b) and online information from national or regional fisheries authorities' websites. Information extracted from theses sources was compared with FAO fleet statistics data to find out which fleets were missing. When missing fleets were found, the data reported under the 'unspecified fishing fleet' category for that country were assigned to the missing fleets in proportion to catch by gear information in the Sea Around Us Project database. Similarly, when a country reported all of its fleets under the 'unspecified fishing fleet' category, the countries' fleets were first identified from F A O country profile information; then the 'unspecified fishing fleet' data were broken down by gear class in proportion to catch by gear information of that country in the Sea Around Us Project database. Few countries in each region have reported some data for which tonnage capacity information was not given (unknown tonnage). In the course of compiling data for this study, it appeared that countries often under-report or never report the statistics of small fishing vessels. Thus, the data for which tonnage information was missing were assumed to be small vessels of less than 30 tonnes (GRT) and assigned fleet category of tonnage class 1 (the smallest class). For the years 1996-2000, vessel statistics were missing not available6. For these years, the vessel statistics were extrapolated as explained in section 2.1.1.3, using vessel statistics trends observed in the years 1990-1995. The estimated vessel data were further broken down by tonnage classes based on tonnage class profile of the latest year (1995) and by gear-classes based on catch by gear information in the Sea Around Us Project database. Mean tonnage capacity for each tonnage class-gear class category were estimated by dividing the total tonnage reported for that tonnage class-gear class by the number of vessels reported in that tonnage class-gear class category by country. Finally, mean horsepower of e Data from 1996-1998 became available only near the end of this study. 23 each tonnage class-gear class category was in turn estimated from mean tonnage using the relationship observed in Fig. 2.1. 2.1.1.2.1.2. Data on mean number of days fished per year Information on mean number of days fished per year by vessels of different gear classes was compiled from F A O reports on economic performance of fishing fleets from selected countries of each region in the years 1995 and 2000 (Le Ry et al., 1998; Tietze et al., 2001, see appendix 4.). Mean number of days fished information from these countries were assumed to represent average fishing activities in the region and were therefore used as a benchmark to assign mean days fished per year for corresponding gear class categories in vessel statistics datasets for all other nations of the region for which this particular data were missing. 2.1.1.2.2. Asian-Pacific, S. American-Caribbean and African effort consolidation The two effort data types (fleet activity and vessel data) were combined by assigning the mean number of days fished by each gear class as reported in the benchmark data to corresponding gear class categories of vessel statistics data. Finally, as for the European-North American region, total fishing effort in horsepower-days was calculated using equation 2.2. ' For each of the Asia-Pacific, south American-Caribbean and African regions, comprehensive database of fishing effort, detailed by country, year, number of vessels, tonnage class, gear class, mean tonnage, total tonnage, mean engine power, total engine power, mean annual number of days fished and total. fishing effort, was compiled. The fishing effort data compiled in this study include motorized vessels. Motorized vessels account for about 40-45% in these regionsf (Haakonsen, 1992; Petursdottir et al., 2001). However, the efficiency and fishing power of motorized fleet segment is far greater than the unmotorized vessels and, therefore, it is believed that the fishing effort data compiled here account for a major portion of the effective fishing effort exerted on the stocks of the regions. The level of motorization for Africa was based on West African estimate, as will be discussed in section 3.4.1 24 Overall, in order to assess how much coverage of global motorized fishing fleet size has been achieved for these regions, independent data from the literature were sought for some countries for comparison or validation. Such data were gathered for 10 countries over different time periods. Assuming that data from independent sources, which often came from national fisheries authorities, were better estimations of the actual fleet size of a country the data compiled for this study were compared on country-and-yearly basis with the data from independent sources as shown in Table 2.1. Table 2.1. Fishing effort data comparison with data from independent sources. Country Year Vessel number from Vessel number from Effort References (source for independent data) F A O (this study) Independent sources coverage (%) 1970 26508 26504 100 William and Hammer (1998) Norway 1980 8454 17392 49 William and Hammer (1998) 1998 12500 13252 94 William and Hammer (1998) 1970 23603 13903 170 Zhong and Power (1997) China 1980 36485 49769 73 Zhong and Power (1997) 1990 214816 244154 88 Zhong, and Power (1997) Indonesia3 1980 18467 18467 100 Priyono and Sumiono (1997) 1990 46535 46542 100 Priyono and Sumiono (1997) 1980 23311 43492 54 Abu Talib and Alias (1997) Malaysia 1990 22073 39541 56 Abu Talib and Alias (1997) Philippines 1970 1999 2061 97 Barut et al. (1997) 1980 2400 2366 101 Barute/a/. (1997) Sri Lanka 1980 3140 10325 30 Maldeniya(1997) 1987 2402 13218 18 Maldeniya(1997) Thailand" 1970 3062 3206 96 Eiamsa-Ard and Amornchairojkul (1997) 1980 12683 15037 84 Eiamsa-Ard and Amornchairojkul (1997) Ghana 1995 147 340 43 Bennet(1995) Namibia 1990 108 254 43 Dierks(1995) Tanzania0 2000 21 20 100 Berachi(2003) Peru 1989 6124 6144 100 Mesinas(1992) Total - 464838 565987 - -Average - - - 80 a In both years the vessel data include medium and large vessel. Small-scale vessels were not included b In both years trawler vessels used in the comparison c In both years trawler vessels used in the comparison As can be seen from Table 2.1, the coverage range from 18% to 100%, with a conservative overall average of about 80%. Note that Chinese vessels figure reported to FAO in 1970 was well in excess of the figure from the independent source and that of the Philippines was also slightly higher than given by the independent source in 1980. Such discrepancies were assumed to have arisen from reporting errors. Assuming that the overall average motorized reporting rate of 80% (Table 2.1) represent an average fleet data coverage rate for most countries, the global fishing effort database compiled for this study covered 25 about 80% of global motorized fishing fleet size. It must be emphasized here that even though vessels as small as 5 GRT are represented in this database, it is believed that the bulk of artisanal canoe fisheries in the developing world, with an unknown proportion of motorized boats, are under-represented. This is mainly because most countries either under-report or never report the statistics of their artisanal fishing effort. Thus, the global coverage of 80% mainly refers to coverage achieved of medium size port-based global fleets. As has been described so far, the fishing effort data assembled for each region were compiled independent of catch information, i.e., no inferences about fishing effort size were made from catch data. This was intentional, in order to allow for an independent comparison with catch spatio-temporal patterns analyzed by the Sea Around Us Project over the same period. 2.1.2. Global maritime ports database The maritime ports data were retrieved from "The Global Maritime Ports Database™" CD-Rom obtained by the Sea Around Us Project from the US National Aeronautics and Atmospheric Administration (NASA). It contains 4811 maritime ports in GIS format, i.e., with the latitude and longitude coordinates of their locations. However, for some countries, some major fishing ports are not included in this database. In those cases, the home cities of those missing ports were first identified from literature, and then the latitude and longitude coordinates of the ports were entered, as determined using a GIS software (Arcview 3.2). 2.2. General methods 2.2.1. Estimating temporal changes in the efficiency of fishing fleets During the period under investigation the applications of technologies such as fish finding electronics and GPS devices are believed to have significantly boosted the average fishing power of fleets. In assessing the effective pressure fishing effort exerts on fish populations (fishing mortality), it is important to consider technology effect, i.e. the 'technology coefficient', in order to correct for potential changes in catchability coefficient (q) incurred due to applications of improved technology (Fitzpatrick, 1996; Garcia and Newton, 1997). 26 In determining technology effect, important factors that need to be considered include: the materials used to construct fishing gear, navigation equipment, design and construction of fishing vessels (Fitzpatrick, 1996). By taking into account these factors, Fitzpatrick (1996) estimated the relative value of technology coefficient for 13 different types of fishing vessels ranging from small canoes of 10 m to super trawlers of 120 m for years 1965, 1980 and 1995, taking the value of 1980 as a base (Table. 2.2). On average the value has increased from 0.53 in 1965 to 1.98 in 1995 (Table. 2.2) representing about 274% increase over 25 years period (an approximately 3-fold increase in efficiency). Even though, the estimation of these coefficients involved a subjective technique based on fishers' perception of relative increases in the efficiency of their boats due to application of new technologies (D. Pauly pers. comm.), the evolution of these relative coefficients approximate the changes in the efficiency of these vessel types from technological point of view (Garcia and Newton, 1997). Table 2.2. Estimated technology coefficients of fishing vessels by vessel types (data from Fitzpatrick, 1996). Vessel Type (Length (m) [Technology Coefficient j 1965 19; 1995 Super Traw Icr 120 1 0.6 1 2.5 Tuna Seiner 65 n.a 1,6 ^Freeze Trawler 50 0 . 7 : i 2.0 Tuna Long Line ~ 65 1 0.5 i iPurse Seiner j 45 0.6 i 2.0 Stern Trawler ] 35 | <>.(> i " 1 . 9 " j I Long Liner 1 35 0.4 i 2.8 [Multi-Purpose • 25 { 0.6 l! 2.5 [Shrimp Trawler 25 0.5 I 2.2 Gillncttcr i ~ 15 | 0.4 1 1.5 (Trawler | 13 [ 0.5 11 1.8 Fast Potter 10 1 0.3 1 1 . 4 ~ Pirogue (canoe)j 10 1 0 . 6 1 1.3 1 Average ! - 1 0.53 I 0.23 (2*SD) 1 1.98±0.93 (2*SD) 27 By averaging the technology coefficient values over the range of vessels types seen in Table. 2.2, annual rate of increase in vessel efficiency due to application of technology was estimated as shown in Fig. 2.2. Fig. 2.2 shows that efficiency of fishing vessels increases by an average annual rate of about 4.4%. At such annual rate, the efficiency of fishing vessels doubles every 15 to 16 years. Garcia and Newton (1997) combined these technology coefficients with data on world fleet size to estimate the likely increase in fishing pressure (Garcia and Newton, 1997). Similarly, the estimated annual rate of increase in vessel efficiency will be applied to the global fishing effort data assembled for this study to assess the effective pressure fishing effort exerted on fish populations. 2.2.2. Modeling spatial distribution of port-based fishing effort The methodology used for modeling spatial distribution of fishing effort is accomplished in three consecutive steps: 1. Effort break down by ports (gravity model 1); 2. Application of qualitative filter criteria; 3. Final prediction of fine scale spatial distribution of fishing effort (gravity model 2). 28 2.2.2.1. Fishing effort break down by ports (Gravity model 1) The spatial model discussed below presumes availability of fishing effort data by ports. In order to break down the fishing effort data by ports of countries a port weighting index for attaching relative importance index to global marine ports (gravity model 1) was developed as explained below. 2.2.2.1.1. Maritime ports relative importance Since ports generally vary in size, it was necessary to develop port-weighing indices that reflect relative differences in the sizes of fishing ports. The weighting indices are meant to represent differences between ports in the number of fishing vessels based therein and referred to as port relative importance factor (PRIF). Ideally, a port-weighting index can be estimated from the number of vessels stationed in homeports. Such data were unavailable for most countries. In such cases, landings by ports were used as a proxy variable to attach differential weight to fishing ports. The rationale for using landings by ports as a proxy for port size is that differences in total landings between ports could reflect relative differences in the number of fishing vessels stationed in ports. Landing data by ports also account for fleets landing their catches in ports other than their homeports by boosting the weight assigned to such ports. Technically speaking, such fleets operate in the vicinity of the ports where they land their catches (landing ports). A typical example is the Seattle-registered US fleet fishing in Alaska, which land its catches in Alaskan ports. For North America, data for estimating port weighting indices were obtained from the Canadian DFO (for the eastern provinces) and the U.S National Marine Fisheries Services (NMFS), while for all other nations (and British Columbia, Canada) data from various online sources, including and F A O country profiles were used. There were several cases when port size information was available for major ports of a country, but missing for minor ports. In those cases, minor ports were assigned a weight equal to half the size of the smallest known port. In few countries no port size information were found for all ports. In those countries ports were assumed to be of equal importance (equal PRIF). For every country, the PRIF is estimated as the ratio of the number of vessels stationed in a port to the total number of vessels stationed in all ports or, alternatively, as a ratio of total landings in a port to total landings in all ports for any given country. 29 v,. i,k (2.3) IX where PRIFjk = Relative importance of port i in country k; Vi.k — number of vessels or landings, in port i in country k; n = total number of ports of country k. The PRIF was assumed stable over time and, therefore, used to break down the compiled effort data by ports over years and different vessel types as: where: EffortPortj.fjk = effort of fleet f stationed at port i in year j in country k effortfjk =Total effort fleet f reported in year j by country k and PRIFik= the relative port importance factor for port i of country k. 2.2.2.2. Application of qualitative filter criteria Before directly applying the quantitative fishing effort distribution model, four qualitative filter criteria were applied. The criteria are formulated by taking into consideration important factors such as temporal changes in the geographic range of fleet operation, and physical and legal factors that contribute to the identification of area(s) exploited by fishing fleets stationed at given ports. This approach is expanded from simpler method based on assigning scores to fishing grounds, under development since 1998 (FAO, 1998b). These criteria are imposed, as a set of rules, to define the spatial extent of a given fishery and thereby determine area(s) where actual fishing activity most likely occur for a fleet segment stationed at a known port, targeting a known group of fish. Broadly, the criteria are the following: 1. Fishing ground accessibility: An area that is accessible to the fleet segment, i.e. it must be located within the operational range of the boats stationed in known homeports (Accessible region); EffortPort = Effort * PRIF: (2.4) 30 2. Fishing ground fishability: A subset of accessible region that is fishable, i.e. ice free area (Fishable region); 3. Legal authority on fishing grounds: A subset of fishable region where the fleet segment have legal authority to fish, in both space and time (Authorized region); 4. Geographic overlap: Finally, a subset of authorized region defined by the overlap of the above four geographical regions which determine the actual fishing area (Fishing region). Each criterion is determined as briefly described below. Filter criterion 1 (Accessible region): this criterion refers to fleet operational range. Except for freezer ships, the operational range of a typical fishing vessel (or vessel endurance) is determined by the time it requires to fill its load capacity (which in turn depend on target abundance and fish detection technology), the amount of fuel it can carry, its cruising speed and by the fact that fishers must return to port within a few days from their first catch, so that it will not be spoiled and become worthless. Essentially all these features are expressions of the physical capacity of a fishing vessel (Grzywaczewski et al., 1964; FAO, 1985; Bower, 1985; Wilson, 1999). The average physical size of fishing fleet is expected to change over time in response to variability in the availability of fish along coasts. In this regard, as fisheries develop over time, inshore stocks are the first to be depleted. The inshore depletions were usually compensated for by deploying larger boats, capable of fishing further offshore, leading to increase in the average tonnage capacity of fishing vessels in most parts of the world (Fig. 2.3). 31 S. American & Caribbean 60 50 \-A s i a & Pacif ic region 10 £ - D - - O -0 1970 1980 1990 2000 Year Fig . 2.3 Temporal changes in the average tonnage capacity of port-based fleets in different regions of the world. The trends shown in Fig. 2.3 represent the overall average changes in the tonnage capacity of port-based fleets (tonnage <500 GRT) on regional basis8. Obviously, the regional trend can conceal more pronounced changes in the average size of fishing fleets in individual countries in each region. However, the overall trends demonstrate that there has been some increase in the average size of fishing fleets over time. Following this observation, the operational range of a port-based fishing fleet in any country is assumed proportional to average tonnage capacity of its component vessels over time. This assumption will capture the aspect of fisheries offshore expansion contributed by physical increase in the sizes of vessels. However, the potential operational range of a fleet that can be realized as a function of average tonnage capacity can be affected by secondary factors such as the geographic location/latitude and relative size of homeports. The effects of these secondary factors are considered in order to further adjust the operation range of fleets, as discussed below. The homeport geographic location factor is important because in tropical climate zones, the open oceans are poor in detritus and nutrients due to accelerated bacterial degradation of organic substances before they sink to the bottom (Longhurst and Pauly, 8 The high average tonnage capacity of S. American and African region fleets relative to European-N. American region and/or Asia-Pacific fleets appear counter-intuitive. This is the result of the fact that the bulk of small vessels in European-N. American region are motorized, leading to lower overall average tonnage. On the other hand, only larger vessels are motorized in S. America-Caribbean and Africa regions, resulting in higher overall average tonnage in relative terms. 32 1987). This phenomenon, which leads to regenerated production, represents the amount of recycling in the upper water column and is very high in open tropical oceans (Longhurst and Pauly, 1987). As the result, the density of bottom fish is low in deep tropical waters (Crutchfield and Lawson, 1974; Longhurst and Pauly, 1987). This climatic factor is expected to affect the operational range of fleets stationed in ports located in different climatic zones, as fishers are usually aware of variability in the distribution of fish along their coasts, and adjust their fishing operations accordingly. This factor is referred to as a latitude factor (LF) in the proceeding discussions. To capture the LF , a latitude-specific (port location-specific) port weighting procedure is applied to ports in order to account for the effect of latitude on fleet operational range. The weighting system applied uses an assigned range of values. Since the weighting values are only approximate, they cannot accurately reflect the port location factor on operational range of fleets. For this reason, the influence of LF is kept minimal by setting a weight of 1 to the average latitude (N or S), where average latitude represents the N or S latitude along which the bulk of global fishing effort is concentrated or major ports are located. This average latitude was determined by plotting total fishing effort by ports data versus port latitude locations as shown in Figs. 2.4. 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 -50 -60 Latitude Fig . 2.4. Global fishing effort concentration by latitude. 33 As shown in Fig. 2.4, global fishing effort is concentrated along 30 N latitude. In the Southern hemisphere, peak fishing effort concentration appears to occur slightly South of 30°S. Since there is much less fishing effort in the Southern hemisphere, the northern peak of 130°| was taken as an average latitude for both the Northern and Southern hemispheres. Thus, average latitude (30°N or S) was used as an anchor to formulate a linear function for assigning LF values as shown in Fig. 2.5. 1.5 r Average latitude o.o o 10 Equator 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Latitude (L) N & S poles F ig . 2.5. Assignment of L F values to latitudes of ports, to simulate the effect of latitude on fleet operational range. Thus, LF = 1 for ports at average latitude (30°N or S). For the remaining ports, the LF values were determined using a linear function that passes through the average latitude location of (30, 1) coordinate points, i.e., LF = 0083 +0.75 . As can be seen from Fig. 2.5, the range of LF values determined by this function range between 0.75 at equator and 1.5 at the poles. The LF values are applied as a multiplicative function of the average tonnage size of fleets over time, and hence it plays the role of decreasing potential fleet operational range in low latitudes and boosting it in higher latitudes, while it has no effect in ports of mid-latitudes where the bulk of global fishing effort is concentrated (Fig. 2.4). To control the range boosting effect of the LF function in high latitudes, a maximum range cap was established as will be discussed at the end of this section. The other secondary factor that affects operational range of fleets is the distribution of vessels of different size classes in different ports of varying sizes. Ports vary not only by their relative sizes, which is a function of the total number of vessels they host, but also vary in the 34 distribution of vessels of different size classes in different ports. To account for this variability, it is assumed that large vessels tend to prefer large ports, as these usually provide better facilities. This can cause increased competition in near-port areas, forcing some fleets to travel further from ports. Thus, fleet operational range is expected to be wider around large ports and narrower around small ports. Hereafter, this factor is termed as port size factor (PSF). In order to capture the PSF, another port size specific weighting function is attached to different ports. For the same reason mentioned in conjunction with LF, the PSF effect is also modeled by identifying an average port, determined from a plot of global fishing effort by ports against the number of ports. When global fishing effort was broken down by ports, based on port relative importance, as discussed in section 2.2.2.1, the size of fishing effort in different ports showed a wide variability. To minimize the variance and discern a measure of central tendency, fishing effort by ports data were transformed to log scale and the transformed data were plotted against number of ports as shown in Fig. 2.6. Average port size 600 -, ! Effort by port (log horsepower-days) F ig . 2.6. Global fishing effort concentration by ports. Fig. 2.6 shows that most ports have an average capacity of about 6.25 on log scale, which has an antilog of about 1.8 million horsepower-days. To put into perspective the size of such an average port, it can be thought of as a port that hosts about 200 boats with an average engine power of 50 horsepower, fishing about 180 days a year. Ports with such capacity are considered average ports and assigned a PSF value of 1, while the remaining ports receive PSF values in proportion to their capacity (i.e., fishing effort they host). The procedure is shown graphically in Fig. 2.7. 35 N '</> 0.4 o D. 0.2 -\ 0.0 T 0 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Effort by port (log horsepower-days) Fig . 2.7. PSF value assignment to ports based on port size as defined by the size of fishing effort they host, to simulate the effect of port size on operational range of fleets. Thus, PSF = 1 for ports of average size (1.8 million horsepower-days) while for the remaining ports, PSF values were determined using a linear function that passes through the anchor average port coordinate points (6.25, 1), i.e., PSF - 0.08 * \og(effortbyport) + 0.5 . As can be seen from Fig. 2.7, the range of PSF values determined by this function range between 0.5 for the smallest port and 1.2 for the largest port. As in LF , the PSF values are applied as a multiplicative function of the primary determinant of fleet operational range, the average tonnage size of fleets over time. Hence, it plays the role of decreasing potential fleet operational range in small ports and boosting it in larger ports while it has no effect in ports of intermediate size in which the bulk of global fishing effort is concentrated (Fig. 2.6). Thus the resultant port location-specific, port size-specific and year-specific operational range of fleets is estimated as: where RfiP,t,k= Operational range of fleet f, in port p, in year t, in country k; Tfpljc=Aver age tonnage capacity of fleet f, stationed at port p, in year t, and country k; LFP= Latitude factor at port p; and PSFP= Size factor of port p. (2.5) 36 Finally, the bulk of port based fishing fleets are composed of short-range and medium-range vessels. The vast majority of such vessels do not have the powerful engine and/or tonnage capacity that is needed for very long fishing trip, and neither are they equipped with refrigerating plants for preserving their catches. However, many of them have insulated fish holdings and carry ice to preserve their catch for short durations. Thus, it is reasonable to assume that most port-based fleets operate within the EEZ of their own countries, i.e., up to 200 nm (approx. 370 km). Therefore the operational range of fleet defined by equation 2.5 is capped at maximum range of 200 miles. This capping essentially controls the range boosting effects of LF and PSF in high latitudes and large ports respectively. Filter criterion 2 (Fishable region): This criterion is required to exclude ocean regions that are permanently covered by ice and hence not available for fishing (50% ice coverage year round by 0.5° by 0.5° cells). The global ice coverage data used in this criterion were obtained from the United States National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) at the University of Colorado, USA. Other potential factors that could prevent fishing, such as bottom type, no-fishing zones, oil rigs and shipping lanes, were not considered in this study. Filter criterion 3 (Authorized region): This criterion is required to determine areas where countries fleets' are legally allowed to fish. The data are obtained from countries bilateral access agreements database maintained by the Sea Around Us Project (Watson et al., 2001a). Filter criterion 4 (Fishing region): This region is determined by the overlap of the above four regions. It represents the area where actual fishing activity most likely happened for a fleet that fulfils criteria 1-4. A computer program (in Visual Basic) was developed to impose these criteria at each level. The criteria were imposed on fleet segment by fleet segment basis; thus, the next task was to define fleet segments. In order to define fleet segment it was necessary to define fish groups commonly targeted by different fleet types referred to as target groups. The target groups defined were: (i) groundfish; (ii) small pelagics and (iii) large pelagics. Through analysis of catch composition by gear types in the Sea Around Us Project gear database and 37 literature review, major gear types used to target each group were identified as summarized in Fig. 2.8. Groundfish Target groups Large pelagics Small pelagics i Major species Cod, haddock, saithe, halibuts, hakes, Sebastes, flounders, soles 4 Major gears used Bottom trawls Gill nets Hook and lines Traps Major species Tuna and billfishes 1 Major gears used Seines Long lines * Major species Herrings, mackerels, pilchards,capelin, Atlantic menhaden, gulf menhaden * Major gears used Seines Midwater trawls Gil l nets Mobile nets Fig . 2.8. Three major target groups and major gear types targeting these groups. As can be seen from Fig. 2.8, fleet segments were defined based on multi-gear and multi-species scheme. Thus, a group of vessels using a variety of gears but targeting a given target group is defined as a 'fleet segment'. A fleet segment is assumed to catch a mixture of species within each group, i.e., multi-species and multi-gear fisheries. A broader gear classification is used, i.e., bottom trawlers, midwater trawlers, surrounding nets, gillnets/entangling nets etc., (see Appendix 3), without getting into detailed gear characterization such different types of bottom trawls (side, stern) or different types of seiners (beach seines, Danish seines) etc. It should be emphasized that categories of fleet segment described above are not exclusive as gears usually overlap with regard to the species groups they catch. Large pelagic fishes were not analyzed in this study, as fleets targeting this group are largely port-independent, ocean-going vessels. 38 Since target groups were defined on the basis of fish groups as opposed to single species, the spatial distribution of target groups was not used as a criterion. This is because, at least, some member of each target group w i l l always occur within a 200 miles range, thus qualifying the area as a fishing region. The logical interrelationship among these rules can diagrammatically expressed as follows: Located where? Port location factor Fleet .segment definition Gear Classes What operational range? What vessel sizes? Fleet average tonnage Determine Accessible •Region Determine Target Group F L E E T S E G M E N T Where do they fish? Filter Criteria What port size? Port relative size factor Authorized Where? Access Right Authorized Region Overlap Determines Fishing; Region What fishing ground condition? Annua l 50% ice coverage info Fishablc Region Spatial effort dist. M o d e l Fig . 2.9. The logical interrelationship between the rules used in the filter criteria. 39 As shown in Fig. 2.9, after the most likely area(s) where a given port-based fleet segment most likely operate was determined through the application of the above outlined geographic filters, the quantitative spatial effort distribution model was applied to simulate fishing effort distribution within the area determined by the overlap of the filter criteria (Fishing region). 2.2.2.3. Distribution of port-based fishing effort (Gravity model 2) The model equation has its roots in the gravity model originally proposed by Caddy (1975) and thereafter widely used for modeling fishing effort distribution (Gills and Peterman, 1998, Walters and Bonfil, 1999). The following equation (2. 6) used in this study is formulated in collaboration with Dr. C.J. Walters, Fisheries Centre, UBC. In this study, spatial cells of a 0.5° by 0.5° resolution were used for mapping the results. V (2-6) IX.-I where EXJJ = effort exerted on cell x, by fleet segment f, stationed at port i ; Wxi = is a weight or a measure of attractiveness attached to cell x, that is under the influence of port, i ; Etfj = total effort of fleet f, stationed at port i , n= number of cells under the influence of fleet segment f, stationed at port i . Subscripts identifying country and year were avoided for clarity. 2.2.2.3.1. Model parameterization: Gravity factor (WX5j) The gravity factor is estimated as a function of fish abundance in a cell (proxy = primary productivity) and cost of fishing in the same cell (proxy = distance from port). The primary productivity data were retrieved from the Sea Around Us Project database. The data were originally obtained from the Space Applications Institute Marine Environment Unit Joint Research Centre of the European Commission, Ispra, Italy (Watson et al., 2004). As explained earlier, the rationale for using ocean primary productivity as an index for fish abundance is that, usually areas of high productivity (often upwelling areas) sustain high fish 40 production (Nanda, 1986). The cost of fishing at different fishing ground was assumed proportional to the distances of fishing grounds (cells) from ports. The procedures used to estimate the gravity factor (Wx,j) is described below: Wxi = Densityv. * exp(-F v , )*exp(-C v . ) (2.7) where Densityxi - productivity at cell, x under the influence port i ; Fxj = mean fishing mortality of the target group at cell, x under the influence port i ; Cx.i = cost of fishing at cell, x, from port, i . The key idea of the gravity model is captured by equation (2.7), i.e., the overriding factors that account for differences in spatial concentration of fishing effort are cost of fishing at a given fishing ground and the anticipated catch from that ground. Equation 2.7 has two unknown variables Wxj and Fxj. Hence, an iterative technique is used to estimate the final value of Wxj. This is done as follows: 1) Set the value of all, F initially to an arbitrary value of 0.1; 2) Calculate Wxj from equation 2.7 above; 3) Calculate effort (NewEjfortxj) for each location from equation 2.6 above. For each iterations >1, (for first iteration EffortLast x • = NewEffort x t fox each location), re-calculate an updated estimate of effort (EffortLastXJ) for each location from the following 'relaxation' equation (Dr. C.J. Walters, Fisheries Centre, U B C , pers. comm.): 4) EffortLast x i =[w* NewEffortxi + (1 - W) * EffortLastxi ] (2.8) where W= a weight factor (value between 0 and 1); and NewEffortXiand EffortLastx ,-, are effort at cell, x under the influence of port, i ; 41 5) Re-estimate F for each location as: EffortLast-Fv,/ =— - (2.9) A, where Ax = relative size of cell, x. 6) Set F= F'xj and return to step 2 until effort estimates stop changing. Spreadsheet tests showed that this procedure converges after 10 to 21 iterations. After the relative attractiveness of different cells was determined through the procedure described here, the total fishing effort exerted by fleets stationed in ports of countries was allocated to each cell in proportion to the relative attractiveness of each cells (equation 2.6) within the fishing region determined by the filter criteria (Fishing region). As the model assumes port-dependence of vessels, vessels with tonnage capacity of >=500 GRT are assumed port-independent and, therefore their distributions were not analyzed here. The results of the analysis for the four regions identified and the consolidation of regional results on global scale are presented in chapter 3 and 4 respectively. 42 3. Results and discussion 3.1. The European-North American region fisheries 3.1.1. Background: Industrialization of fisheries in Europe-N. American Region Fishing in Europe and North America has a long history going back centuries (Cushing, 1988; Hutchings, 1995b; Rich, 2005). Fisheries statistics are available as far back as 1903 and for some countries even earlier (ICES, 1906; Anon, 2002a). The first phase of the industrialization and expansion of fisheries in this region occurred in the mid 19 th century, when hemp nets were replaced by machine-made cotton nets (Cushing, 1988; Hutchings, 1995b). This is followed by introduction of steam drifter vessels (mainly in the Northeast Atlantic, to catch herring) that enabled boats to reach ports independent of the wind (Gulland, 1974; Cushing, 1988). Until WW II, catches were predominately taken by these drift netters, but later, trawlers became dominant (Cushing, 1988). The second, and perhaps most important, phase of expansion and industrialization occurred after WW II (Solecki, 1979; Cushing, 1988; Lear, 1998; Pauly et al, 2002). During the decades following WW II, the exploitation of marine fish stocks greatly increased, mainly fueled by successful economic rebuilding, coupled with the development of filleting and quick-freezing technologies and elaborate transportation network, which enabled fish product distribution to greater distances (Lear, 1998). As a result, large new markets were opened for fishmeal and animal feed products due to the simultaneous industrialization of agriculture, which depended on fishmeal as an essential part of animal feed (Cushing, 1988). This further stimulated the demand for fish products (Arnason and Felt, 1995; Cushing, 1988). In response to this demand, extensive industrial fisheries for fishmeal involving fleets of trawlers were introduced in Europe beginning in the early 1950s (Anon, 2002a). From the 1960s, they were complemented by industrial purse seiners and large pelagic trawlers which replaced the driftnets fleets (Arnason and Felt, 1995; Anon, 2002a). At about the same time, there was a steady increase in bottom trawlers targeting groundfish and flatfish for human consumption (Arnason and Felt, 1995; Anon, 2002a). Other major technological developments that affected fisheries in this region during and after the 1960s were development of sonar systems, navigation and communications equipment as well as new gear technologies (ICES, 2001). As a result, the modern purse seiners, with their high tech 43 electronic equipment, gained a new capability for locating schools of fish (Arnason and Felt, 1995; Lear, 1998). During this era the former Soviet Union (USSR) was by far the largest investor in fishing capacity development. The USSR had multiple objectives for their catches which included, providing fish for domestic, consumption, providing feed for animal breeding, supply other industrial sectors (such as margarine production, pharmaceutical, soap and textile industries) with fish products and maintaining a positive export trade balance (Solecki, 1997). In order to fulfill such multifaceted, but centrally planned fish production objectives, the former USSR embarked on extensive fishing vessel construction in their shipyards and as well as purchase of deep-sea fishing vessels from former Soviet bloc countries, such as Poland, German Democratic Republic and others (Solecki, 1979). For instance, in the decade from 1956 to 1965, 80% of all Soviet investments in fishing sector went to building the fleet, the ports and ship repair shops, thus causing an overall qualitative change in the profile of the fleets (Solecki, 1979). In general the fishing effort of the region grew both in number and vessel size. The largest among those factory trawlers in USSR and other major fishing nations in the region were capable of fishing at great depths and distances in almost all weather conditions (Solecki, 1979; Cushing, 1988; Arnason and Felt, 1995). As a result the fishing fleets of the region expanded operations from the coasts to the offshore grounds (Solecki, 1979; Cushing 1988; Parsons and Beckett, 1995). The newly accessed offshore grounds traditionally acted as a 'refuge' or buffers against overfishing by providing groundfish shelter far offshore, beyond the operational range of traditional fleets (Pauly et al, 2002; Walters and Martell, 2004). Currently, there are hardly any offshore grounds left to act as a refuge for the heavily exploited groundfish stocks of the region (Cushing, 1988; Hutchings, 1995b). On the other hand, the incremental improvements in vessels and gears technologies meant that the capability to catch fish has increased slowly but consistently over time in the entire region. Such increase in the efficiency of the region's fleets is believed to have caused the collapse of numerous fish stocks, such as, the North Sea mackerel (Scomber scombrus), North Sea herring (Clupea harengus), Atlantic menhaden (Brevoortia tyrannus) and recently Newfoundland cod (Gadus morhua), and led to depletion of many more stocks (Cushing, 1988; Arnason and Felt, 1995; Anon, 2002a). 44 As a response to fish stock collapses and loss of fishing grounds for long distance fleets (due to introduction of EEZ), stricter effort regulations were implemented (mainly in Europe), resulting in overall decline of regional fishing effort from the 1970s onward. The decline was further extended into the 1990s as a result of the European fishing capacity reduction policy (MAGP), that had been introduced in 1983 to address concerns about overfishing of major commercial stocks and resulting overcapitalization in fleet capacity (Laurec and Armstrong, 1997; Lindebo, 1999), and the decline of fisheries in Russia and East European countries after the collapse of USSR (Anon, 1994; Newton and Garcia, 1997). The decline of fishing effort in European sub-region is believed to have contributed to the recent recovery of the North Sea herring and mackerel stocks (Anon, 2002a). Still, in light of the depleted state of several stocks of the region and lingering overcapacity, there is a need to understand the spatio-temporal dynamics of fishing effort, and assess the likely consequences of fisheries expansion. This section is dedicated to assessing the spatio-temporal evolution of fishing effort in the European and North American region. Before directly dealing with the main theme of this section, an overview of the status of countries as measured by their fishing capacity and the region's fleet characteristics profiles are described. 3.1.2. Relative status of countries in European-N. American region fisheries In order to shed some light on countries' relative participation in marine capture fisheries, the overall capacity of their fleets (fishing and supporting vessels) was evaluated. In subsequent sections, where the focus of analysis is shifted to evaluating the direct fishing pressure on fish stocks, fishing effort exerted by vessels directly involved in fishing will be used, as described in the next section. A vessel's tonnage capacity or, alternatively, the horsepower of its engine is usually considered a principal determinant of its fishing capability (Gulland, 1983; Marchal et al., 2002). Accordingly, the relative contribution of countries to the total effort in the region under consideration was measured by the total tonnage of their motorized fleets in 1995h. h The year 1995 was chosen as a benchmark because it is the most recent year for which actual recorded vessel data were available. 45 Top ten countries are identified as depicted in Table 3.1. As can be seen from Table 3.1, the top ten countries accounted for about 90% of the region's fishing capacity. Table 3.1. Fishing capacity of the top ten countries in European-North American region, based on data for 1995. Rank Country Relative fleet capacity (% tonnage ) 1 Russian Fed 43 2 U S A 11 3 Spain 9 4 Ukraine 6 5 U K 5 6 Norway 5 7 Canada 5 8 Iceland 2 9 Denmark 2 10 Italy 2 11-39 Others (29) 10 The Russian Federation alone accounted for about 43% of the total fishing capacity of the region in 1995. This is mainly because Russia inherited most of the former Soviet Union's vessels, which once constituted the world's largest fishing fleet (Solecki, 1979; Fitzpatrick and Newton, 2005). Next are the U S A and Spain, with shares of about 11% and 9% respectively. The other countries in Table 3 .1 accounted for very small shares, ranging from 2 to 6%, while the remaining countries of the region (not included in Table 3.1) jointly shared only 10% of the region's fishing capacity. Russia, thus is by far the single most important country, with the potential to have significant impact to the fish stocks of the region. Likewise, other countries such as the USA and Spain had fishing capacity equivalent to the capacity of 29 European countries combined. Spain, however, took measures to cut back the size of its fishing fleets, thus 46 fulfilling her obligations under the E U Multi-Annual Guidance Programs requirements (Tietze et al, 2001). 3.1.3. Trends in size composition of European-N. American region fishing fleets The size composition of fishing fleets can be used for inferences on their diversity. Temporal changes in fleet diversity can, in turn, indicate the direction the fishing industry took over time in response to changing coastal resource abundances and/or management regulations imposed by management authorities. Thus, temporal change in fleet size composition is expected to be linked with coastal stock depletion relative to offshore stocks. Because of such linkage, only fishing fleets directly involved in catching fish were used in this section and all subsequent sections. Thus, vessels that are, presumably, not directly involved in catching fish, such as fish carriers, motherships, and other non-fishing vessels, fishery research vessels, fishery training vessels, protection and survey vessels were not considered. For some countries, multipurpose vessels were not considered because it was found to be impossible to assign gear types used by such vessels in any given year. These conditions apply for all regions in the subsequent analysis. A l l fleet statistics data are split into inshore fleets (tonnage capacity <=149.9 tonnes) and offshore fleets (tonnage capacity >=150 tonnes). Temporal changes in the share of inshore and offshore fleet components are plotted as shown in Fig. 3.1. 120 o T— 100 (-* CO CD co 80 -a) CD N 60 CO 1 40 -M— JD o JC 20 -CO c 0 1970 25 ID 20 15 £ N (O 10 % o n co 1980 1990 2000 Y e a r Fig . 3.1. Temporal changes in the composition of fishing fleets of the European-North America region. 47 The results showed that in the period between 1970 and 2000 the inshore component of the region's fishing fleet increased from about 95,000 boats in 1970 to about 103,000 boats in 2000, showing a moderate growth of 8% over three decades (Fig. 3.1). On the other hand, the size of the offshore fleet component has grown from 18,000 boats in 1970 to about 20,000 boats in 2000, showing an increase of about 13% over the same period of time (Fig. 3.1). In terms of percentage composition, there has been no shift in the relative size composition of the region's fleets in the period analyzed (84% inshore and 16% offshore). Against the background of fishing capacity expansion policies implemented in the region (Milazzo, 1998) and studies documenting collapses and overexploitation of several coastal commercial fish stocks in the region (Gulland, 1974; Radovich 1982; Rogers and Van Den Avyle, 1983; Pauly, 1998; Pauly et al, 2002; Anon, 2002b; Bjomdal, 2003; Hilborn et al., 2003), the observed overall growth in fishing fleet of the region (21%) is not surprising at all. The overall increases in both the inshore and the offshore sectors of the fisheries resulted from the combined effects of the fishing capacity expansion policies, implemented by several countries in the region in the aftermath of the declaration of EEZ regime, and the depletion of coastal stocks that encouraged fishers to acquire larger boats in order to pursue offshore resources. On the other hand, the depletion of coastal stocks in this region triggered stricter license limitations (Stump and Batker, 1996; Linbedo, 1999; Hanna et al., 2000), which appeared to have led to the apparent modest decline in the offshore fleet after 1990 (Fig. 3.1). The overall regional trend shown in Fig. 3.1 is the result of cumulative effects of temporal fleet composition changes that occurred in North American and European fisheries. This lumping of data makes it difficult to address underlining fleet composition dynamics that occurred in individual countries. Thus, to better explain the observed trend, the dataset were split into three sub-categories of nations based on some rough similarities in their fisheries management histories and geographical proximity: North America, 13 European Union member countries (EU131) and non-EU member nations'. The results are shown in Fig. 3.2. ' Landlocked nations are excluded. The EU13 countries considered are: Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden and U K . J A l l non-EU member European nations and newly recruited E U member states of the former Soviet Bloc are included. Since their membership is relatively recent, E U policies on effort management are not expected to have affected their fleet capacity in any significant way. 48 -i 90 0 1970 1980 1990 Year 2000 F ig . 3.2. Temporal changes in the inshore and offshore fleets in the total fishing fleets of E U 1 3 , non-EU and North American countries. 4 9 In EU13 countries, the inshore component of the sub-region's fishing fleets had decreased from about 50,000 boats in 1970 to about 45,000 boats in 2000, corresponding to a moderate decline of 10% over three decades (Fig. 3.2). Similarly, the size of the offshore fleet component declined from 7,900 boats in 1970 to about 5,400 boats in 2000, showing a sizable decline of about 32% over the same period (Fig. 3.2). The offshore fleet constituted about 61%o of the total fishing fleet of the sub-region in 1970, while this figure declined to about 55% in 2000. The waters fished by EU13 countries, and non-EU countries as well, have long been overfished. Recent reports indicate that stocks in this sub-region have been reduced by anywhere between 62% and 100% (Anon, 2002b). Thus, the declining trend in both the inshore and the offshore fleets in EU13 countries can be attributed to the overall problem of depletion of most of their stocks to levels that can no more profitably support the over-expanded fleets (Cushing 1988). The decline was further complemented by the E U Multi-Annual Guidance Programs (MAGPs) designed to cut fishing capacity to reduce fishing fleets to an economically viable size (Laurec and Armstrong, 1997; Lindebo, 1999). In non-EU countries, the inshore component of the fishing fleets increased from about 28, 000 boats in 1970 to about 35, 000 boats in 2000, corresponding to an increase of 24% in three decades (Fig. 3.2). However, the offshore fleet declined from 7,000 boats in 1970 to about 5,200, representing a decline of 26% over the same period (Fig. 3.2). This likely resulted from fisheries decline following the collapse of former USSR (Anon, 1994, Newton and Garcia, 1997). In terms of percentage composition, the inshore fleet constituted about 28% of the total fishing fleet of the sub-region in 1970, while this figure grew to about 40% in 2000, indicating that there has been a modest shift in the composition of the sub-region's fleet toward increased composition of the inshore sector. It is worth noting that both the offshore and the inshore fleet sectors in non-EU countries showed increases after the 1990s. The expansion of fleet capacity in this country grouping in the 1990s is partly attributed to the economic recovery of the former Soviet republics and East European countries through financial support delivered in the form of various loans and financial aid from Western nations (Anthony, 2001; Anon, 2005). This means that these countries are in a fleet expansion 'race' similar to the global situation in the 1970s and 1980s, when most countries around the world embarked on a policy of capacity expansion with little or no concern for conservation (Milazzo, 1998; Hanna, et al, 2000). 50 In North America, the inshore component of the fishing fleet increased from about 6, 100 boats in 1970 to about 23,300 boats in 2000, corresponding to an increase of 283% over the three decades (Fig. 3.2). Similarly, the size of the offshore fleet component grew from 2,900 boats in 1970 to about 9,700 boats in 2000, an increase of about 234% over the same period (Fig. 3.2). In terms of percentage composition, the offshore fleet constituted about 32% of the total fishing fleet of the sub-region in 1970, while this figure had declined to about 29% in 2000. The growing share of offshore fleets, in North American fisheries, between 1970 and 1990 was achieved primarily through financial subsidies available by governments to expand their domestic fleet capacities following declaration of EEZs in the mid 1970s (Stump and Batker, 1996). In addition to the effect of subsidies, several stocks in this region have also recovered as a result of exclusion of foreign fleets during the 1970s, which encouraged local fleet expansion (Murawski and Almeida, 2001). Availability of abundant national resources, coupled with an open access regime encouraged fishers to invest in fishing capacity in order to get a bigger share of the resources (Pearse, 1996; Pauly et al, 2002). However the increasing trend appeared to have been stabilized after 1990. This effort expansion caused the collapse of, at least one important stock, the Northern cod (Gadus morhua) stock off Newfoundland (Charles, 1995; Rose and Kulka, 1999; Walters and Martell, 2004), and several more studies done in this sub-region document decline of all important fish stocks in the North American coasts (Moore et al, 1993; Nicholson, 1996; Pearse, 1996; Stump and Batker, 1996; Hanna et al, 2000; Hilborn et al, 2003). The apparent stability in the trend of both the inshore and the offshore sectors, after 1990, in this sub-region can thus be attributed to the depletion of fish stocks in the region, which removed incentives for fishers to invest in offshore fleets. The leveling of the trend can also partly be attributed to regulatory measures implemented to control fishing effort in order to prevent overfishing after the 1980s (Stump and Batker, 1996; Hanna et al, 2000). In general, for the region as a whole, even i f there was a moderate increase in the contribution of the offshore fleets over the period from 1970 to 2000, the major proportion of the region's fishing fleet still consisted of inshore vessels. There is one important point that must be made about this observation: for many years, the continued existence of small-scale 51 inshore fisheries was thought to be a transitory feature of fisheries development (Pauly, 1996) and, therefore, it attracted little attention (Panayotou, 19985). Contrary to this long-held belief, the inshore fisheries have proven to be very resilient and after half a century of industrialization, they still account for about 84% of the total fishing capacity of this highly industrialized region. 3.1.4. Evolution of fishing effort in European-N. American region fisheries The overall expansion in nominal fishing fleet discussed in the preceding section is converted into effective fishing effort to further analyze the evolution of total fishing effort and, most importantly, to investigate the consequences of this expansion on the fish stocks. The latter will be discussed in the last section of this study. Here, total fishing effort is defined as the product of vessel number, fishing activity and fishing power. Fishing activity is the amount of time a fishing vessel is actively engaged in fishing. Ideally, fishing activity should be defined as fishing days minus transit time, search time and gear handling time (Walters and Martell, 2004). However, details on times not used for fishing are not available. Thus, in this study, fishing activity is represented by the annual number of days fished. Fishing power is the ability of a vessel to catch fish and is a complex variable involving vessel capacity (tonnage and engine power), gear size and crew size (Alvarez, 1999). Since data on gear size and crew size are not readily available, fishing power is often represented by mean engine power of the vessels (Gulland, 1983; Wilson, 1999; Marchal et al, 2002). Therefore, in any given year, total fishing effort exerted by a fleet segment is estimated as the sum of these products over all gears and vessel class combination. The results of temporal analyses of total fishing effort of the region, over the period 1970-2000, are shown in Fig. 3.3 and 3.4. 52 70 60 • t o 50 * )Days 40 X 30 Effort 20 10 0 L _ 1 1 1 1970 1980 1990 2000 Year Fig . 3 .3 . Temporal trends in total fishing effort in European-North American region. Fig. 3.3 shows that total fishing effort for the region has been increasing until the late 1980s and declined in the 1990s. To better analyze the results, the region was sub-divided in to sub-categories of nations in the same way as in section 3.1.3, above (Fig. 3.4). 0 l , _• . _ 1970 1980 1990 2000 Year Fi g . 3.4. Temporal trends in total fishing effort in North America, EU13 states and non-E U member states. 53 In non-EU countries category, fishing effort has been growing at a moderate pace in the period from the 1970s to the late 1980s. The overall fishing effort in this category is also higher, owing to the fleets of fisheries giants like the former USSR and, to a lesser extent, Norway and Iceland. Fishing effort capacity growth in this sub-region, over the period between the 1970s and 1980s, can most likely be attributed to two factors: The expansion of fishing fleets, primarily of former USSR fleets, and the introduction EEZs by coastal states in the mid 1970s. Until its collapse in the early 1990s, the USSR had the world's single largest fishing fleet (Fitzpatrick and Newton 2005), a result of the former USSR's centrally planned fisheries economic policy which was geared toward maximizing catches (Solecki, 1979; MacSween, 1983). This policy might have been further fueled by competition among the various Soviet republics for rewards for exceeding the planned 'production quotas' allocated to them (Pautzke, 1997). The USSR policy had an international influence in encouraging investment in fishing fleets in other East European socialist states, whose economic policies were built on the Soviet model (Garcia and Newton, 1997; Christy, 1997a). The second likely factor that caused fishing effort expansion in this period was the declaration of EEZ limit. To fully exploit fish resources, within their newly granted national jurisdiction, many countries in this sub-region pursued policies of development of their domestic fleets through direct or indirect subsidies, and a policy of acquiring ocean-going vessels capable of processing at sea (MacSween, 1983, Hanna et al., 2000, Hilborn et al., 2003). The USSR, despite fishing access regime change that excluded its fleets from most of their traditional overseas fishing grounds (Schmidt, 1977; MacSween, 1983; Garcia and Newton, 1997), continued expanding its fishing capacity in the period 1976-1980, partly by re-deploying the fleets in their own waters and partly by engaging in agreements with other countries for access to their EEZs (Schmidt, 1977). Similarly, extensive fishing effort expansion programs supported by various forms of subsidies were adopted by other major fishing countries in non-EU states such as Norway and Iceland (Isaksen, 2000; Schrank, 2003; Hermansen and Flaaten, 2004). As a result, fishing effort expansion in non-EU states continued until 1990. Nonetheless, following the collapse of former USSR and Yugoslavia, the fishing effort of this sub-category decreased in early 1990s. During this period, the East European 54 nations were faced with various challenges including dealing with an oversized fishing fleet they are left with, reduced access to the EEZ of various countries they traditionally fished in, and decreases in both subsidized energy supplies and export demand from the former USSR republics (Anon, 1994). This combination of factors indeed, forced the Baltic states to reduce or idle much of their fleets (Anon, 1994). The situation was similar in Russia, where most of the fleets became obsolete (Garcia and Newton, 1997). Also, the remaining fleets ceased to be competitive as the government was no longer able to supply cheap fuel or funds for their repair (Pautzke, 1997). Even though the total size of non-EU fishing effort is much smaller than what it was in the 1980s, the trend is picking up again, partly fuelled by the overall economic recovery of East European countries in the late 1990s (Papp, 20005). This was particularly due to direct investment in fishing capacity redevelopment schemes, funded through various loans and aid packages aimed at supporting economic reforms of these countries (Anon, 2005). In EU13 countries, fishing effort has been in a continuous decline since the mid 1970s. The North Sea, the Baltic and Mediterranean Seas, which are the main fishing grounds of EU13 nations, had been fished for centuries and the fish resources were depleted long before the mid 1970s (Gulland, 1974: Cushing 1988). Since the turn of 20 t h century fishing effort had been increasing in this sub-region (Cushing, 1988). Especially after 1950s, fishing effort expansion was further fueled by the need for successful economic rebuilding after the WW II coupled, as elsewhere, with population growth that resulted in increased demand for fish and fish products (Cushing, 1988, Arnason and Felt, 1995). The effects of this fleet expansion began taking its toll in as early as the mid 1970s with the collapse of North Sea herring and mackerel stocks (Cushing 1988, Anon, 2002a) and subsequent deterioration of the status of several stocks in the region (Arnason and Felt, 1995). Recent reports showed that 62-91% of important commercial stocks are overexploitedk in NE Atlantic, while the figures for the West coast of Ireland, the Baltic and the Mediterranean are 100%, 75% and 65-70% respectively (Anon, 2002b). The exploitation rates were estimated as the ratio of the number of overexploited stocks to the number of commercially thriving stocks (Anon, 2002b). 55 Thus, the overall decline of fishing effort for fleets operating in these areas can be attributed to depletion of major stocks, and likely, to increased cost of catching the remaining fish. As is also evident from Fig. 3.4, trends of total fishing effort in EU13 states showed a steeper decline after 1990, a likely result of the E U fishing capacity reduction policy (MAGP). However, parallel to its capacity reduction program, the E U has a subsidy program for vessel renewal and construction, aimed at the modernization of E U fleets (Stump and Batker, 1996; Christy, 1997a; Linbedo, 1999, Munro and Sumaila, 2002). For example, the E U increased spending on its commercial fleets from $80 million in 1983 to $500 million in 1990, one-fifth of which went to vessel building or refitting (Stump and Batker, 1996). This vessel renewal and modernization scheme could potentially have an opposite effect from the capacity reduction schemes in that replacement of old inefficient vessels with new or modernized, more efficient vessels has a potential for increasing effective fishing effort. Even subsidies that are used for fleet decommissioning programs can have unintended negative effect i f fishers can foresee them coming. In which case, the decommissioning subsidies can be considered as the collateral, which banks require for new vessel purchase (Munro and Sumaila, 2002; Pauly et al, 2002). Thus, for the E U M A G P to achieve its intended goals, close monitoring of the effects of vessel construction and modernization programs is of paramount importance. On top of concerns about fleet modernization programs, for their potential for increasing effective fishing effort, there are concerns about the effect of growing fishing effort in non-EU countries. The non-EU countries share several resources with EU13 countries, for example in the North Sea (Williams, 2005). The temporal trend of fishing effort seen in these countries was the exact opposite of the trend seen in the EU13 countries in the 1990s (Fig. 3.4), i.e., fishing effort capacity reduction, mainly achieved by Spain (Anon, 2002b), seen in EU13 countries is offset by increase in total fishing capacity of non-E U countries. Therefore, at least for the shared stocks, the effort reduction in EU13 countries may not lead to a corresponding improvement in the status of fish stocks in the region. In North America, fishing effort has been growing from 1970 up to about the early 1990s. The early years of this period saw fisheries expansion as the result of declaration of EEZ. In the 1980s, substantial financial assistance was given to the local fishing industries 56 for fleet renovation and construction meant to modernize and increase the productive capacity of the fisheries (Manchester, 1970; Angel et al, 1994; Parsons and Beckett, 1995; Arnason and Felt, 1995; Rogers, 1995). For instance, in 1983 the U.S government supplied nearly $65 million in low-interest loans to finance construction of fleets for the Arctic Alaska Fisheries Corporation in which 80% of vessel constructions were financed (Stump and Batker, 1996). Similar financial supports were granted for fishing capacity building in Canada (Pauly and Watson, 2003; Schrank, 2003). In addition to these subsidies, the expansion of fishing effort capacity was fueled by open access regime that encouraged fishers to invest in fishing capacity in order to get a larger share of the resources (Angel et al, 1994; Rogers, 1995, Pearse, 1996; Christy, 1997a). The result was large fishing effort capacity expansion in the sub-region (Manchester, 1970; Arnason and Felt, 1995; Harris, 199; Hanna et al, 2000; Hilborn et al, 2003; Pauly and Maclean, 2003). Nevertheless, after the early 1990s, fishing effort in this sub-region leveled off, or began declining at a modest rate. By this time, the region's fishing fleet had developed to the full or overcapacity, putting many stocks under stress to the extent that about 33% of USA stocks were overexploited (Hanna et al, 2000; Hilborn et al, 2003), and the abundance of several Canadian stocks were declining, leading to collapse of at least one important stock, the Northern cod (Moore et al, 1993; Nicholson, 1996; Pearse, 1996; Lear, 1998; DFO, 2000). At about this time, the crisis of fisheries began to be recognized by the broader public, and environmental groups began voicing their concerns, putting management authorities under intense pressure (Hanna et al, 2000). As a response to these pressures, management regulations involving quota and limited entry programs were implemented. In addition, stricter rules such as complete exclusion or reduction of flag vessels (Hanna et al, 200), restrictions on the power and efficiency of vessels, gear restrictions, vessel replacement rules, area closure and vessel buyback schemes were implemented (Angel et al, 1994; Stump and Batker, 1996; Pearse, 1996). As a result, and also due to dwindling return on expenses and profit dissipation by over-expanded fleets, fishing effort of the sub- region showed signs of contraction in the period from the early 1990s to 2000. 57 3.1.5. Distribution of fishing effort in European-N. American region fisheries As has been discussed in Section 1, modeling spatial distribution of fishing effort is important: a) to document the differential fishing pressure received by different fishing grounds due to differences in the distance of fishing grounds from major ports and differences in relative productivity (Hilborn and Walters, 1992; Walters and Martell, 2004); and b) to analyze the inevitable impacts of differential fishing pressure on spatial ecosystem structure (Pauly et al., 2003b). The results of spatial analyses for groundfish and small pelagic fisheries are presented separately, in order to better explain fishing effort spatial dynamics, as these fisheries are often targeted by different gear types. 3.1.5.1. Groundfish fisheries Groundfish are bottom-living fish such as the gadid family and the flatfishes. These species tend to be abundant on broad continental shelves, e.g., in the North Atlantic. In this part of the world, groundfish fisheries commonly target demersal species such as Atlantic cod (Gadus morhud), turbots (Pleuronichthys spp.), haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus), hakes (Merluccius spp.), pollock (Pollachius spp.,) and numerous other species. The data in spatial cells were broadly aggregated (in two classes) in order to highlight regional fishing hotspots. The results of analyses of groundfish fishing effort distribution are shown in Fig. 3.5, on a decadal basis from 1970 to 2000. 58 Fig. 3.5. Predicted spatial distribution of fishing effort targeting groundfish in North American and European fisheries. Light gray: 0.0-3.0 log hpdays.km"; dark gray: 3.1-15.8 log hpdays.km"2. 59 An important pattern evident from the maps is that fishing operations covered the vast area of the continental shelves of the region in as early as the 1970s. In the European sub-region, groundfish fisheries expansion to offshore grounds is the result of decades-long, heavy exploitation that eventually led to depletion of inshore groundfish stocks (Cushing, 1988; Arnason and Felt, 1995; ICES, 2001; Anon, 2002a). This forced fishers to expand their operations from the inshore areas of North Atlantic to offshore grounds, to pursue stocks that were unexploited or under-exploited during the 1950s and 1960s (Anon, 2000). However, since 1980s, the offshore effort concentration showed moderate decline, owing to declines in the offshore fleet size as discussed in Section 3.1.3. Note.that the decline is more drastic in Russian waters, where low fishing effort intensity was observed in 1980 and 1990. The 1980 observation is most likely linked to a temporarily reduced activity of the USSR fleets, after their retreat from international grounds due to full enforcement of the new access regime. The 1990 observation, on the other hand, is linked to the 1989 collapse of the USSR, which caused most of USSR's fleets to become obsolete (Garcia and Newton, 1997), and the active ones non-competitive as the government was no longer able to supply cheap fuel or funds for repair of the fishing fleets (Pautzke, 1997). In North America, offshore expansion has been continuous since the 1970s. The offshore expansion can be attributed to the combined effects of the fleet capacity growth, especially following the declaration of EEZs, and the depletion of coastal groundfish (Hanna et al., 2000). Other studies have documented a similar time frame of expansion of fisheries to offshore grounds in North American region (Hutchings and Myers, 1995; Hanna et al., 2000). 3.1.5.2. Small pelagic fisheries Small pelagic fishes are species that inhabit the water column but tend to remain on continental shelves for the most part of their life histories. Commercially important small pelagic species in the region include herrings (Clupea spp.), capelin (Mallotus vellosus), anchovies (Engraulis spp.), mackerels (Scomber spp.), menhadens (Brevoortia spp.) and sardines (Sardinella spp.). The results of analyses of fishing effort distribution targeting small pelagic fish are shown on a decadal basis from 1970 to 2000 in Fig. 3.6. 60 Fig. 3.6. Predicted spatial distribution of fishing effort targeting small pelagic fisheries in North American and European region. Light gray: 0.0-2.0 log hpdays.km2; dark gray: 2.1-13.1 log hpdays.krn2. A s shown in Fig . 3.6, the overall pattern of spatial distribution of fishing effort, targeting inshore small pelagic fisheries, is similar to the groundfish effort distribution 61 pattern (Figs. 3.5 and 3.6). This is attributed to the assumption that, in most cases, both groundfish and small pelagics are concentrated in areas of high primary productivity. On the temporal scale, the intensity of small pelagic fishing effort was low after the 1980s (Fig. 3.6). This decline in fishing effort targeting small pelagic fisheries is attributed to depletion of several stocks of small pelagic fisheries, such as North Sea mackerel and North Sea herring (Cushing, 1988; Bjomdal, 2003), Atlantic menhaden (Rogers and Van Den Avyle, 1983) and, more recently, Pacific herring and Barents Sea capelin (FAO, 1997). In recent years, despite fishing effort reduction, a considerable increase in the contribution of small pelagics to the catches of the region has been reported (Anon, 2002a). This increase is believed to be associated with recent recovery of several small pelagic stocks in the region (Anon, 2002a). The increased catches could also be related to enhanced fleet mobility coupled with state-of-the-art electronic gears, the combination of which allow the fleets to track schools of fish and maintain high catch totals even at low stock levels (Stump and Batker, 1996). As for groundfish, distinct observation in the map is the very low small pelagics effort concentration predicted in USSR/Russian waters since 1980 (Fig. 3.6). Prior to the U N Convention On the Law Of the Sea (UNCLOS III), the USSR fleets used to catch huge amounts of these species (Garcia and Newton, 1997). With full enforcement of the new access regime in 1980s, the USSR pelagic fleets not only retreated back to their waters, but also the majority of the pelagic fleet switched to targeting high-value species for export markets (Garcia and Newton, 1997). Consequently, the USSR/Russian pelagic fleet was drastically reduced. Overall, the model predicted high effort intensity in traditionally rich fishing grounds of the Northern hemisphere which include inshore areas of the Norwegian Sea, the coast of Barents Sea, Spitzbergen, the Skagerrak and Kattegat, the North Sea, the coast of Iceland, English and Bristol channels, the Bay of Biscay, inshore areas of Portuguese waters and the Mediterranean Sea. Similarly, it predicted high effort intensity in traditional Northwest Atlantic fishing grounds including the Grand Bank, the Scotia-Fundy Shelf, the Gulf of Maine, Georges Bank and New England Shelves in the north, down to Gulf of Mexico in the south. In the Northwest Pacific, high effort intensity is predicted around inshore areas of Washington-Oregon coast and in Strait of Georgia, in the Gulf of Alaska, Bering Sea, the coasts of Aleutian Islands and the Sea of Okhotsk. These results confirm, i f only 62 quantitatively, the existing observation about regional 'hot' fishing grounds. The fact that the model, independent of observational data, gave results that are compatible with existing knowledge, indicate the power of the model in predicting the distribution of fishing effort. The overall pattern seen in the spatial fishing effort distribution maps is that fishing effort intensity decreases with increasing distance from homeports and for similar distances, intensity is highest in areas with highest ocean primary productivity. Of course, this pattern is generated because of the assumption built in the model that treats fishing effort distribution pattern to be governed by cost (proxy: distance from ports) and anticipated catches (approximated by ocean primary productivity). Thus, i f the model assumptions are correct, it shows that the concentration of fishing intensity remains inshore, despite significant expansion in the overall range of fleet operation. Similar inshore fishing effort concentration pattern has been documented in Northwest Atlantic, in which, the northern cod fishing grounds relatively remained inshore for several years (1954 to 1990) despite inshore cod stock depletion (Hutchings and Myers, 1995). This could be due to several reasons, including: (i) relatively high catch rate at low stock levels as a result of efficiency of fishing gears; (ii) relative safety and low cost associated with fishing close to home (iii) fishers prefer to fish in their traditional inshore fishing grounds rather than taking the risk of going offshore for uncertain reward, and (iv) finally, the vast majority of region's fleets are composed of small size inshore vessels. On the other hand, even though the inshore grounds carry the greatest fishing pressure, the offshore grounds also experienced increasingly heavy fishing pressure in the period under consideration. Offshore grounds are traditionally assumed to act as a refuge for heavily exploited fish species, and are thought to serve as a buffer against overfishing (Walters and Martell, 2004), especially where target species have large part of their distribution out of the range of fishing operation (Pauly et al, 2002). With increasing expansion of fishing effort to these offshore grounds, the buffering effect of offshore grounds have been lost leaving no refuge for Northern cod (Guenette, 2000) and other fishes. Finally, as the model uses static ocean productivity information (inter-annual variation in ocean primary productivity above fishing grounds are assumed negligible), it is acknowledged that the model does not predict fine scale dynamic variations in fishing effort intensity as dictated by actual year-to-year changes in target stock abundance or distribution. 63 As will be shown in model validation section (Section 4.5.1), the overall pattern of fishing effort distribution predicted by the model, however, is roughly in agreement with an independent spatial data used for model validation. 3.1.6. Conclusions With the exception of EU13 countries, there were two distinct phases in the evolution of fishing effort of the Europe-North American region. Phase 1 (1970s to 1980s), represented the continuation of effort expansion of post WW II era. The expansion was further intensified by domestic fleet development policies adopted by countries after UNCLOS III. In this phase, the fishing effort of North America and non-EU countries had grown significantly, while that of EU13 began declining. Phase 2, from the 1990s on, represented an effort contraction phase. In this phase, with exception of non-EU countries, the trend in North America had stabilized or showed a sign of decline and that of EU13 countries have shown a steeper decline. However, for non-E U countries, except for a brief period in the early 1990s, fishing effort had continued expanding. The overall pattern of total fishing effort evolution, for the entire region as a whole, showed continuously increasing trend from the 1970s to the late 1980s. After this time, the total size of the fleets reduced in the early 1990s, but the trend has been picking up again. This is mainly because the small decline achieved by EU13 countries had been offset by effort build up in non-EU countries, and to lesser extent, in North American. EU13 and non-E U countries share several stocks in the Baltic, North Sea and Mediterranean Sea. Consequently EU13 effort reduction could not have resulted in any significant improvement in overall status of fish stocks in the region. As the result, the region's fishing effort is still expanding, despite numerous studies showing continuous declining of the abundances of traditional major commercial fish stocks in the region. This increasing trend in fishing effort is the direct result of fishing capacity development programs adopted during phase 1 of fishing effort expansion that provided various types of subsidies for construction of fishing vessels and gears. As of 2000, the situation was as eloquently described by Michael L. Weber with reference to the US fisheries (Hanna et al, 2000): 64 "The biggest problem we are facing is that the marine fisheries have been the equivalent of the cold war. We built up enormous fleets with societal encouragement, and now we are faced with this enormous task of building down. It is like deciding what to do with these warheads." With regard to spatial distribution of fishing effort, fishing effort intensity is highest in inshore grounds close to homeports. At the same time, fishing operations have expanded geographically and covered the entire range of distribution of major groundfish and small pelagic species in this region over time. If the status quo is maintained, further depletion of the already depressed stocks is inevitable. 3.2. The Asian-Pacific region fisheries 3.2.1. Background: Industrialization of fisheries in Asian-Pacific region For several centuries, fishing has been a very important economic sector on which a large fraction of the Asia-pacific region populations depended on for food and income. It is estimated that approximately 33 million fishers depend on fisheries for their livelihood in this region (FAO, 1996). Driven by growing demand for fish, the fishing industry of the region experienced dramatic expansion in the last three decades, although with differing rate in individual countries (Hongskul, 1999). The variability in growth of fisheries range from rapid development in countries like China, South Korea, Japan, Australia and New Zealand (APO, 1988; FAO, 1999; Klaer, 2001) to relatively slow developments in several other Asian nations (FAO, 1989) and virtually non-existent local commercial fishing industry in some Pacific islands (Kent, 1980). Countries such as China, South Korea and Japan motorized their fishing vessels and expanded the numbers of their fishing fleets even before WW II (Solecki, 1966; Asada et al, 1983; Fujinami, 1989), while in most developing Asia-Pacific countries, fleet expansion took off after WW II (Panayotou, 1985). In Japan, fishery products play an important role in the traditional diet, as a result, the fishing industry enjoys considerable attention and investment from the government (Takayama, 1963; Milazzo, 1998). Japanese investment in fleet motorization and expansion began far back with the Sino-Japanese War (1894-95) and the Russo-Japanese War (1904-05), marking the first phase of the motorization of Japanese fishing fleet (Takayama, 1963, 65 Swartz, 2004). Later, the First World War (1914-1918) further expanded Japan's overseas territories and fishing interests in the Pacific, from the Bering Sea to the South China Sea and to the South Pacific, underpinning the need for investing in fishing fleets (Swartz, 2004). With onset of the 1920s, highly efficient offshore vessels were introduced by the Japanese fishing industry (Asada et al, 1983; Fujinami, 1989; Swartz, 2004). Since this period, both the total number of Japanese vessels and the rate of motorization have been growing continuously. The effects of the Second WWII on Japanese fisheries were devastating. Allied bombing of the Japanese mainland destroyed port facilities and Japanese vessels were confiscated by the military and used as mine sweepers and transportation supply vessels for the military (Swartz, 2004). During this period, Japan also experienced shortage of fuel and gears for its fishing fleets, coupled with navigation ban imposed on Japanese vessels resulted in the termination of fishing activity all together in 1945 (Swartz, 2004). After WW II, the expansion of Japanese fishing industry was very rapid, owing to the concerted efforts made by the Japanese government to fill the huge food deficit, which emerged in the late 1940s (Asada et al, 1983; APO, 1988). As a result, in less than a decade, motorized vessels accounted for 40% of the total Japanese fishing fleet (Chidambaram, 1963). However, after the late 1970s, the Japanese long distance fleet capacity declined as a result of both the fuel price hike of the early 1970s, and the subsequent establishment of EEZ regimes by most maritime countries, which reduced access to traditional fishing grounds of the Japanese distant water fleets (Swartz, 2004). However, their domestic fleet capability development saw no significant decline (Asada et al, 1983; APO, 1988). Currently, the large Japanese domestic fishing fleet fulfills multiple roles, including food supply and providing a major employment in rural fishing communities (MAFF, 2005, cited in Swartz, 2004). In China, the importance of marine fishing industry received recognition as far back as the 12 t h century (Solecki, 1966). During the final years of the Chinese empire, at the beginning of the 20 t h century, the imperial government tried to modernize the fishing industry through purchase of western vessels and ice storage facilities, which would have enabled the Chinese fishing industry to expand to coastal waters (Solecki, 1966). However, the fleet modernization program ran into trouble with the fall of the Cff ing dynasty, the civil war that followed and the subsequent Japanese invasion (Solecki, 1966). The combination of 66 setbacks left the country without much of its fishing fleet, a situation that existed until the ascendance of the Chinese communist party to power in 1949 (Solecki, 1966; Jia and Chen, 2000) . The new Chinese government strongly promoted increased marine capture fisheries (Jia and Chen, 2000, Pang and Pauly, 2001). To that end, it implemented various programs for fishing vessel constructions, repairs, modernization and vessel purchases from abroad (Milazzo, 1998). As a result, the Chinese fishing industry saw a rapid expansion, implemented over three distinct phases. The initial phase of Chinese fisheries expansion occurred in the period from 1950 to 1959 and is known as 'the period of initial development' (Jia and Chen, 2000). At the beginning of this period, there were few motorized vessels in the Chinese fleet (Jia and Chen, 2000), but toward the end of this period, both the rate of motorization and the number of Chinese fishing vessels grew rapidly (Solecki, 1966; Zhong and Power, 1997; Jia and Chen, 2000). The second expansion phase occurred in the period from 1960 to 1976. During this second phase, also known as 'the period of stagnant development', two political disasters hit China, the 'great leap forward' and the 'cultural revolution' (Jia and Chen, 2000; Pang and Pauly, 2001). Even though political turmoil interrupted overall Chinese economic development, the fishing fleet expanded remarkably both in number and power during this period as well (Jia and Chen, 2000). The third phase of Chinese fishing capacity expansion was implemented in the period from 1977 to 1999. During this period, the number of fishing vessels grew strongly and the number of non-powered vessels diminished (Jia and Chen, 2000). The rapid growth in fishing fleet during this phase, especially after 1985, has been attributed to two major events occurred during this period. The first of these is the relaxation of price control on fish products, which improved the financial situation of some fleets that were otherwise unprofitable in the past, providing incentive for fishers to invest in fishing vessels (Pang and Pauly 2001). The second event was the mass migration of farmers to coastal cities due to loss of farmlands and also in search of a better life in coastal cities. These landless farmers eventually became small-scale fishers along the coasts (Hinrichsen, 1995; Pang and Pauly 2001) . 67 After the mid 1980s, Chinese official catch statistics increased exponentially (Pang and Pauly, 2001). This exponential growth in Chinese catch statistics was largely based on over-reporting of catch figures by local officials in an attempt to justify increased fishing effort or increased government allocation of resources to their units or area (Pang and Pauly, 2001; Watson and Pauly, 2001). As a response to this reporting fraud, the Chinese central government implemented a 'zero growth' policy in marine capture fisheries since 1998, the result of which was to freeze reported catches at the 1998 level, making the Chinese recent catch statistics unreliable (Pang and Pauly, 2001; Watson and Pauly, 2001). But the fleet statistics may be less unreliable, however. Generally, over the past three decades, Chinese fleet mechanization exhibited a remarkable expansion (Zhong and Power, 1997). Currently, despite some largely unsuccessful effort control measures taken by authorities and stagnant or declining CPUE trend recorded in almost all Chinese fishing grounds, Chinese fishing fleet continue expanding (Zhong and Power, 1997; Milazzo, 1998; FAO, 1997a; Pang and Pauly, 2001; Watson and Pauly, 2001). In South Korea, rapid expansion occurred between the 1970s and the early 1980s (Asada et al, 1983). Most of the expansion in the 1970s and 1980s was the result of deep-sea fishing operations (Anon, 2005e). Like the trends observed in Japan and China, the size of non-motorized fleets has been diminishing, while the number of motored units increased. For instance, South Korean motorized fishing vessels constituted about 12% of the total fleet in the early 1960s, while this figure was 79% in the early 1980s (Anon, 2005e). In developing Asia-Pacific countries, fleet motorization and total capacity expansions began after WW II (Chidambaram, 1963) with more rapid increases since the 1960s (Panayotou, 1985; Silvestre and Pauly, 1997). The rate of fleet mechanization in these developing Asia-Pacific countries showed wide variations. For example, in the early 1960s, the shares of mechanized vessels in some Asia-Pacific developing countries ranged from 2.5% in India to 84% in Philippines (Chidambaram, 1963). In the early 1980s, motorization in these countries significantly increased, ranging from 7% in India to about 97% in the Philippines (Asada et al, 1983). Parallel to fleet mechanization programs, there has been a simultaneous fishing gear modernization, which began with the introduction of large trawls first to Thailand and then to neighboring countries, such as, Malaysia, Indonesia and the 68 Philippines (Asada et al., 1983; Silvestre and Pauly, 1997; Pauly and Chuenpadgee, 2003), leading to the emergence of large offshore fleets in developing Asian countries. Fleet expansion and mechanization in these developing nations were mainly funded by various government-sponsored development assistance programs in the form of provision of soft loans, direct subsidies and even outright distribution of boats and engines at low prices and through foreign joint venture projects (Ahmad, 1985; Panayotou, 1985; FAO, 1989). These programs were all aimed at boosting domestic fishery catches primarily through supporting fishing effort developments (FAO, 1989). In Australia, a rather rapid fishing capacity expansion occurred after WW II (Bian, 1985). The initial pulse was initiated through fleet expansion programs implemented in the 1970s and the early 1980s as a result of EEZ declaration and stable high fish prices that encouraged further investment (Bian, 1985; Klaer, 2001). Similarly, in New Zealand, fishing effort capacity development began to grow in the 1960s, triggered by the appearance of foreign fishing vessels off the coasts of New Zealand, which was perceived as a threat to the commercial interests of domestic fishers (FAO, 1999). Consequently, the government removed restrictions on fishing effort applied earlier to local fishers and encouraged expansion of fishing effort as well as guaranteed loans for fishing vessel purchases (FAO, 1999). This led to overcapitalization in some fisheries. For instance, in 1984, the inshore sector was overcapitalized by an estimated $NZ 28 million (approx. 17.36 million USD) and in some areas, overcapitalization was estimated to represent about 44% of existing fishing capacity (FAO, 1999). For the region as a whole, the fishing effort expansion policies implemented by various countries have resulted in growth in fleet size, increased efficiency and geographic expansions to offshore grounds, which translate into excessive pressure on fish stocks of the region (Menasveta, 2000). Consequently, numerous coastal stocks of the region were depleted by overfishing (Ahmed et al, 2003; Christensen et al, 2003; Pauly, 1989; Silvestre et al., 2003). On the other hand, the vast expanse of the Pacific, especially the South Pacific, is a deep ocean, with limited shelf areas, and thus unfavorable for fishing (Kent, 1980). With such limited shelf areas, the fishing effort in the region -except that directed at tunas- is obviously concentrated in narrow coastal shelves. 69 In light of the limited geographic extent of shelf areas, investigating the evolution and distribution of fishing effort of the region is important. This study is part of such an attempt to shed light on this critical issue. As has been done in previous section, an overview is given on the status of countries as measured by their fishing capacity prior to dealing with the evolution and distribution of total fishing effort. 3.2.2 Relative status of countries in Asian-Pacific region fisheries As was done for the European-North American region, the countries' fishing capacity is measured in terms of the tonnage capacity of the motorized fleets (Table. 3.2). The top ten countries together accounted for about 96% of the region's fishing capacity. The relative share of each nation is shown in Table 3.2. Table 3.2. Fishing capacity of the top ten countries in Asia-Pacific region, based on data for 1995. Rank Country Relative fleet capacity (% tonnage) 1 China (Main.) 44 2 Japan 12 3 India 8 4 Taiwan 7 5 North Korea 7 6 South Korea 6 7 Indonesia 4 8 Thailand 3 9 Malaysia 2 10 Pakistan 1 11-56 Others (46) 4 As can be seen from Table 3.2, China heads the list of regional fishing giants, accounting for 44% of the total tonnage capacity of the region. It is remotely followed by Japan and India, each accounting for 12% and 8% respectively. The share of other countries in the top ten list range from 1% to 7%, while that of the remaining 46 countries not listed here, together, accounted for only 4% of the region's fishing capacity. One important lesson that could be drawn from this result is the importance of China in the fishing sector of Asia-Pacific region. China's large capacity is the direct result of 70 various economic, social and political measures taken by the government to ensure the growth of fisheries (Solecki, 1966; Milazzo, 1998; Pang and Pauly, 2001). In the face of declining abundance of major commercial stocks in the Chinese waters (Jia and Chen, 2000; Xianshi, 2000; Pang and Pauly, 2001), the current fishing capacity is largely an over-capacity from an economic perspective. On the other hand, the negative impact of Chinese fishing capacity is not limited to Chinese fish resources alone. China shares several fish stocks with its neighboring countries (Menasveta, 2000). The Chinese fishing capacity, therefore, has a significant implication for the fish resources that are shared with other neighboring countries. There is no realistic quota management regime between China and its neighbors for shared stocks (Menasveta, 2000; Rosenburg, 2005), making the influence of Chinese fleets on shared stocks very significant. In Japan, even though fishing capacity was curtailed as the result of EEZ declaration in the mid 1970s, still has substantial fishing capacity. In India, fisheries expansion began during WW II when demand for fish increased notably because of allied forces based in India (Bhathal, 2005). This shortage eventually led to a development of the fisheries sector, but the expansion began well after India's Independence in 1947 (Bhathal, 2005). Following Independence, several fisheries expansion programs were implemented through successive 'Five Year National Plans' involving construction of large vessels and extensive canoe motorization (Bhathal, 2005). As a result, India now ranks third among the fishing nations of the region. 3.2.3. Trends in size composition of Asian-Pacific region fishing fleets In order to assess changes in fleet size profiles over time and examine whether the fisheries in this region have made any significant shift in fleet diversity, trends in size composition in the fleets of this region were analyzed, as described below. As in other region, the fleet statistics data of the region were split into inshore fleet (vessels <= 149.9 tonnes) and offshore fleets (>=150 tonnes). The results of the analysis are shown in Fig. 3.7. 71 80 r 40 S> 20 10 9> o o g 10 [ 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 Year Fig. 3.7. Temporal changes in the size composition of fishing fleets of the Asia-Pacific region. The result showed that in the period between 1970 to 2000, the inshore component of the region's fishing fleets increased from about 300,000 boats in 1970 to about 740,000 boats in 2000, showing a dramatic growth of 143% over three decades (Fig. 3.7). This increasing trend in the inshore sector is attributed partly to the open access regime prevalent in most countries of this region (Flewwelling, 2001) and partly to governments' policies encouraging and supporting fisheries expansions. An open access policy treats fish as 'free for all ' resource thereby encouraging entry in to fisheries (Rogers, 1995; Stump and Batker, 1996; Pauly et ah, 2002). The second factor that compounded the effect of an open access regime is population movement into coastal cities, a common problem in all developing countries (Platteau, 1992; Hinrichsen, 1995; Marcoux, 1997; Pang and Pauly, 2002). Thus, as long as fisheries remain open access and a job of last resort, the new immigrants to coastal areas engage in inshore fisheries, significantly increasing the size of fishers and the size of inshore fleets. Evidence from studies on population growth impact on fisheries show that, in most developing countries, sharp increases in the number of coastal fishers have occurred in the 1970s and 1980s, which were the result of population growth in fishing communities, as well as, the immigration of landless farmers to coastal areas and their entry into fishing (Baylon, 1997; Marcoux, 1997; Pang and Pauly, 2002). In this part of the world the number of fishers increased by 126% in the period between 1975 and 1993 (FAO, 1996c). According to United Nations (UN) estimates, 20 to 30 million people annually migrate from rural to urban areas, 72 especially to developing countries' large cities, most of which end up engaging in jobs such as fishing (Weber, 1997). On the other hand, the size of the offshore fleet component grew from 10,000 boats in 1970 to about 35,000 boats in 2000, showing a huge increase of about 243% over the same period of time (Fig. 3.7). In terms of percentage composition, the offshore fleet constituted about 25% of the total fishing fleet of the region in 1970, while this figure grew to about 32% in 2000, indicating a modest shift in the composition of the region's fleets toward offshore sector. As explained earlier, most countries in this region heavily invest in their fishing industries in an effort to ensure food security for their growing populations. The overall increasing trend in the offshore fleet component is therefore a direct result of the subsidized fishing capacity development policies implemented by the countries in this region (Milazzo, 1998). The consequences of this spectacular fishing fleet expansion has been that coastal stocks in virtually all fishing grounds ranging from Japanese waters (FAO, 1997a) to the Chinese grounds (Xianshi, 2000; Pang and Pauly, 2002) and to the Gulf of Thailand (Pauly and Chuenpagdee, 2003) have long been overexploited. The depletion of coastal stocks has also forced countries in the region to opt for further expansion of offshore fleets to pursue stocks far offshore. The overall regional trend shown above is the result of an aggregate effect of temporal changes which occurred in the diversity of fleets in individual countries, with wide disparities in their economic and technical capabilities for expanding their fleets. To better explain these trends and identify countries responsible for this shift, the data for some traditional fishing nations of the region (Japan, South Korea and China) were isolated and the aggregate of the remaining countries were plotted separately (Fig. 3.8). 73 o * D 3 'D 1970 1980 1990 Year 2000 Fig . 3.8. Temporal changes in the composition of fishing fleets of three selected countries and all other countries in Asia-Pacific region. 74 The plot shows that in China, South Korea and to a lesser degree in countries grouped under the 'others' category, both the inshore and offshore sectors showed a steady increase, while in Japan both sectors showed a declining trend (Fig. 3.8). China did not have substantial long distance fleet back in the 1970s and the early 1980s, but it took off in the late 1980s. In the 1990s, despite reported declines in the abundance of most commercial species in several Chinese fishing grounds (Milazzo, 1998; Xianshi, 2000), the Chinese fleets increased (Fig. 3.8). This increase in offshore fleet size can be attributed to a recent Chinese move to develop subsidized deep-sea and long distance fishing fleets in order to compensate for catch losses from their own coastal waters (Milazzo, 1998; Pang and Pauly, 2001). In light of the deep ocean expanse in the region, the idea of developing offshore deep-sea fisheries appears attractive. However, given the fact that biological production declines rapidly with depth (Longhurst and Pauly, 1987) and with increasing distance from the coast (Crutchfield and Lawson, 1974; Sugiyama et al, 2004), it is unlikely that the offshore grounds will provide catches that could offset the lost catches due to inshore stock depletion. The increase in inshore fleets is mainly associated with population movement to coastal towns as the result of farmland loss in inland areas and relaxation of fish price control (Pang and Pauly, 2001). In South Korea, the inshore sector has been growing since 1980 while the offshore sector appears to have stabilized after 1990. The observed growth in inshore fishing fleets in South Korea could be the result of heavy investment in fishing capacity development implemented in 1970s and 1980s (Asada et al, 1983). In Japan, both the inshore and the offshore components have been declining since 1980. The declining trend in the offshore fleet is attributed to the curtailing of the long distance fleet, first a result of fuel price hikes in the early 1970s and later because of the establishment of EEZ regime in the late 1970s that expelled the Japanese long distance fleet from its traditional fishing grounds around the world, which Japan opted not to rescue (Park, 1974; Asada et al, 1983; Fujinami, 1989; APO, 1988). On the other hand, reports on the status of fish resources in Japanese coastal waters show that stocks therein have declined, resulting in decline in catches (FAO, 1997a). Thus, the apparent reduction in inshore fleets after 1980 could be associated with poor economic performance of the inshore fleets as result of reduced catches. 75 In the 'others' category, representing the remaining Asia-Pacific countries, the trend in inshore fleet has been increasing since 1970, while that of the offshore fleet sector showed a sharper increase in the period from 1980 to 1990, after which it was stabilized (Fig. 3.8). The increase in the overall fleets in these Asia-Pacific countries can be attributed to government initiatives for boosting domestic fisheries catches and fishing capacity development through government-sponsored capacity development assistances and foreign joint venture projects (Ahmad, 1985; Panayotou, 1985; FAO, 1989). Other contributing factors are the open access regime, internal population increase within the fishing community and new entrants from other economic sectors, as explained earlier. Overall the large fleet expansion in the region has resulted in excessive fishing pressure on the stocks, leading to leveling-off in landings and poor economic performance of fisheries (Silvestre and Pauly, 1997). Indeed, the relative stability in the offshore fleets after 1990 (in some countries, Fig. 3.8), can be associated with poor economic performances of large vessels as a result of declining catch rates from depleted stocks and associated increases in the cost of pursuing the remaining fish (FAO, 1999). As a result, countries such as New Zealand and Australia have introduced industry restructuring programs, including voluntary buy-back schemes and tougher vessel replacement policies, which aim was to reduce the number of vessels and hence fishing capacity (FAO, 1999). It must also be noted that China is solely responsible for the offshore fishing fleet capacity expansion after 1990, as the offshore fleets declined in all other countries. Similar pattern has been observed in the catch trends of this region in which catches have at least leveled-off in all other Asian nations since 1990s except for China (Hongskul, 1999). The other important point to note is that the inshore fleets account for about 78% of the total fishing capacity of this region. The impact of small-scale fisheries (operating both unmotorized and motorized crafts) on inshore stocks is considerable, especially, when viewed in light of the relatively narrow continental shelves in most parts of the region. It is also common knowledge that considerable portion of offshore fleets usually operate in inshore grounds (FAO, 1999), further compounding the inshore overfishing. 76 3.2.4. Evolution of fishing effort in Asian-Pacific region fisheries The fishing fleets discussed in the preceding section are converted into effective fishing effort to further analyze the evolution of fishing effort. As discussed in Section 1.5, fishing effort is defined as the product of number of vessels, fishing activity and fishing power, i.e., in any given year, fishing effort is estimated as the product of fleet size, fleet activity and power summed over all gears and vessel classes. The results of temporal analyses of fishing effort of the region, over the period 1970-2000, are shown in Fig. 3.9 and 3.10. 140 ,-0 1 ' ' 1970 1980 1990 2000 Year Fig . 3.9. Temporal trends in fishing effort in the Asia-Pacific region. As it can be seen from Fig. 3.9, fishing effort in the region has been growing since the 1970s. This steady growth is consistent with fisheries expansion policies implemented by most Asia-Pacific nations in the second half of the 20 t h century as documented in Section 3.1. As has been done in Section 3.2.3 traditional fishing countries of the region (Japan, South Korea and China) were isolated and that of all remaining countries were aggregated for trend analysis (Fig. 3.10). 77 1970 1980 1990 Year Fig. 3. 10. Temporal trends in fishing effort in selected countries and all other countries in the Asia-Pacific region. Fig. 3.10 shows that fishing effort was continuously growing in China and in the countries grouped in the 'others' category, while the trend was declining in Japan and did not change much in South Korea. In China, the period after 1970 roughly coincides with the Chinese third fisheries 'developmental phase', during which, a rapid expansion of effort occurred (Jia and Chen, 2000), with serious repercussions for the fish stocks (Zhong and Power, 1997; Milazzo, 1998; FAO, 1997a; Pang and Pauly, 2001; Watson and Pauly, 2001). Catch per unit of effort (CPUE) declined, resulting in utilization of five tonnes of fuel to catch one tonne of fish (Jia and Chen, 2000) and catches increasingly consisted of 'trash' fish or juveniles and catches of high valued fish dropped sharply (Milazzo, 1998; Pang and Pauly, 2001). Despite such alarming decline in the CPUE, Chinese fishing effort continued to expand as Chinese authorities reacted to this decline by developing new capacity for deep-sea fishing (Zhong and Power, 1997, Milazzo, 1998; Pang and Pauly, 2001). However, China also reported an initiative to scrap 30,000 fishing vessels and relocate some 300,000 fishers by 2010 (Rosenburg, 2000). In the 'others' category, steady growth in fishing effort was seen in the 1980s, after which the trend stabilized (Fig. 3.10). With the hope of maximizing benefit from their fisheries, developing Asia-Pacific countries heavily invested in the sector from the 1960s on (Panayotou, 1985). Initially, the fleet expansion program succeeded in increasing catches 78 and this temporary success motivated further extension of the subsidy programs well into the 1970s, covering larger number of fishers (Panayotou, 1985). Therefore, the overall growth in fishing effort in this group of countries is the direct result of the investments in fishing capacity development policies funded through various kinds of subsidies. However, this increasing trend in total fishing effort appeared to have stabilized after 1990 (Fig. 3.10), which can be associated with decline in the resource base of the region, as there were no major effort reduction measures implemented (with the exception of Australia and New Zealand) in most of the developing Asian countries. Overall, decline in the fish resources of the region is aggravated by high fish demand due to increasing population, expanding fishing communities, due to lack of alternative livelihood, advances in fishing technology and accelerated development of industrial fisheries (Silvestre and Pauly, 1997). For instance, in the Philippines, the level of fishing effort exceeded what was required to catch the maximum economic yield by 150-300% and maximum sustainable yield by 30-130% in as early as the mid 1980s (Silvestre and Pauly, 1997). The apparent stability in fishing effort after 1990 in 'others' category is also associated with the poor economic performances of their fishing industries, a result of declining catch rates from depleted stocks and associated increases in the cost of pursuing the remaining fish. On the other hand, fishing effort has been declining in Japan since the 1980s. As has been mentioned earlier, the decline in Japanese fishing effort is due to the decision taken by Japan not to rescue all of its long distance fleet after full enforcement of EEZ regimes (Park, 1974; Asada et al, 1983; Fujinami, 1989; APO, 1988). Similarly, the South Korean fishing fleet did not show a comparable growth with fish demand, and the industry has been failing to meet both domestic and export fish demands in recent years (Anon, 2003). For instance, the share of fish in the total South Korean exports dropped by about 5-fold over the same period (Anon, 2003). 3.2.5. Distribution of fishing effort in Asian-Pacific region fisheries 3.2.5.1. Groundfish fisheries Groundfish are bottom-living fish, which tend to occur on broad continental shelves. The most spectacular groundfish catches in this region are made of species like small yellow croaker (Larimichthys polyactis), hairtails (Trichiurus spp.), Pacific cod (Gadus 79 macrocephalus) and Alaska pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) (Menasveta, 2000). The results of the analyses of distribution of fishing effort targeting groundfish in Asian-Pacific region are shown on decadal basis from 1970 to 2000 in Fig. 3.11. Fig. 3.11. Predicted spatial distribution of fishing effort targeting groundfish in Asia-Pacific region fisheries. Light gray: 0-3.2 log hpdays.km"2; dark gray: 3.2-15.3 log hpdays.km"2. 80 In the Northeast Pacific, high fishing effort intensity is predicted in the Sea of Japan, the Yellow Sea, the East China Sea and the inshore areas of the South China Sea (Fig. 3.11). High fishing effort concentration in these grounds is partly attributed to the fact that these grounds lie within operational range of several giant fishing nations of the region (notably China, Japan, South Korea and the Philippines) and also are among productive fishing grounds of the world (NOAA, 2004). Historically the East China Sea provided about 50% of Chinese marine landing (Zhong and Power, 1997). In recent years, however, the fishing power of fleets operating in the East China Sea increased significantly in the 1990s (from China alone), resulting in a decline of CPUE by a factor of 3 (FAO, 1997a; Jia and Chen, 2000; Xianshi, 2000). Similarly, in the South China Sea, overexploitation of coastal resources due to massive increase in fishing effort has been well documented (Thuoc and Long, 1997; Cheung et al., 2002). Indeed, overfishing in the coastal areas of the South China Sea led to shift in catch composition from large demersal and pelagic predator fishes to pelagic herbivorous fish and increased volume of juvenile fish in the catches (FAO, 1997a; Pang and Pauly, 2001; Cheung et al, 2002). The picture along the Yellow Sea coast is not any different. The Yellow Sea has been fished heavily, and its fish stocks have been reduced to very low levels, making the fisheries of the Yellow Sea economically unsustainable (NOAA, 2004). High fishing effort intensity is also predicted for the Japanese waters. Along the Japanese coasts high fishing intensity has been reported, leading to decline in the catches of important groundfish species such as Alaskan pollock and Pacific cod (FAO, 1997a). Likewise, in the Southeast Pacific and the Indian Ocean, high fishing effort concentration is predicted for the Gulf of Thailand, the Indonesian Sea, the Bay of Bengal and the Indian coast of Arabian Sea. In the Gulf of Thailand, massive increase in fishing effort occurred since the 1960s, resulting in decline of CPUE from about 300kg/hour in the early 1960s to about 50 kg/hour in the 1980s to only about 20-30 kg/hour in the 1990s (Pauly and Chuenpagdee, 2003). Similarly, the fisheries of the Eastern and Western Indian ocean and as well as the South coast of Central Java are characterized by increased fishing pressure (FAO, 1997a and Bhathal, 2005). Thus, overall, the predicted results have roughly reflected the reported historical fishing effort concentration patterns as briefly documented here. 81 3.2.5.2. Small pelagic fisheries The most popular small pelagic fish catches in this region include anchovies (Engraulidae spp.), South American pilchard (Sardinops sagax), Japanese jack mackerel (Trachurus japonicus), chub mackerel (Scomber japonicus), scads (Decapterus spp.), Pacific saury (Cololabis saird), Indian oil sardine (Sardinella longiceps) and Indian mackerel (Rastrelliger kanagurta) (Sugiyama et al., 2004). The results of analyses of fishing effort distribution targeting small pelagic fish in the Asia-Pacific region on decadal basis from 1970 to 2000 are shown in Fig. 3.12. 82 1970 Fig. 3.12. Predicted spatial distribution of the fishing effort targeting small pelagic species in the Asia-Pacific region fisheries. Light gray: 0.0-2.7 log hpdays.km"2; dark gray: 2.8-13.3 log hpdays.km"2. 83 As for groundfish, the model predicted high fishing effort concentration for the Chinese Seas (the Yellow, the East and the South China Seas), the Japan Sea, coasts of India, the Gulf of Thailand and the Indonesia Sea (Fig. 3.12). Each of these areas, with high predicted effort intensity, are known major fishing grounds for small pelagic fisheries in the region (Menasveta, 2000). For instance, the Yellow Sea small pelagic stocks are among the most intensively exploited resources in the world (Sugiyama et al., 2004). Thus, the results of the prediction appeared to have roughly mirrored the reported spatial concentration of small pelagic fishing effort in the region. Evidences from trawl surveys, ecosystem modeling and Large Marine Ecosystem (LME) studies previously done in the region indicated that the abundance of small pelagic stocks in most of the region have been reduced (FAO, 1997a; Sugiyama et al., 2004). For instance, the catch of the Japanese pilchard (sardine) dropped by 4.1 million tonnes since 1988, representing a decline of 76% (FAO, 1997a). High fishing intensity of small pelagic fisheries came about partly due to the fact that the region's fishing effort had switched to targeting small pelagic species as large demersal species have been depleted, leading to the catches of the region being dominated by small pelagic marine species (FAO, 1997a; Menasveta, 2000; Jia and Chen, 2000; Xianshi, 2000; Pang and Pauly, 2001; Pauly and Chuenpagdee, 2003; Sugiyama et al., 2004). This relative shift in catch composition is a classic example of what Pauly et al., (1998) called "Fishing down the marine food web", wherein total catch is increasingly dominated by small pelagic fish, as predatory large demersal and large pelagic fish are serially depleted. On temporal scale, in the 1970s, high fishing effort concentration was limited to grounds, such as the Yellow Sea, the East China Sea and the Indian coasts for both the groundfish and small pelagics. But after the 1980s, the fishing fleets of the region grew in size and expanded its geographic operation, covering the entire range of the shelf areas in the Gulf of Thailand and the Indonesian Sea (Fig. 3.12). However, the bulk of the region's fleets still operate in inshore areas, not too far from where they operated back in the 1970s. This resulted from a combination of low fish densities in offshore deep waters, which characterizes tropical ecosystems (Longhurst and Pauly, 1987), also assumed in the model used here, and the fact that the major portion of the fishing fleets of the region is still composed of small vessels (78%), thus incapable of 84 operating in the open waters. This concentration of effort in the inshore areas has been a major cause of conflicts between artisanal and industrial fisheries over resources in several developing Asia-Pacific countries (Panayotou, 1982). 3.2.6. Conclusions With the exception of Japan, Australia and New Zealand, the fishing effort of the countries in the Asia-Pacific region has been continuously growing over the period covered by this study. Factors believed to have caused this large expansion include uncontrolled fishing fleet capacity expansion programs implemented by countries in the region and open access regime, which encourages poor people (especially in Southeast Asia) to fish when other means of livelihood are scarce. The impact of the open access regime was further compounded by population movements to coastal cities, as in China, eventually joining the already crowded fishing sector as fishing remains a relatively cheap means of livelihood. Accounting for nearly half the nominal capacity of the region, China is mainly responsible for fishing effort capacity expansion observed in this region, especially after 1990, as trends in fishing effort showed declining trends for all other countries in the region. Various reports, on the status of fish stocks show that unsustainable fishing effort expansion depleted almost all commercial stocks of the region. Against this backdrop, maintaining the current fishing effort level might lead to further deterioration of the status of fish stocks, resulting in decline of overall catches. High fishing effort intensity is predicted in inshore grounds. Given the narrowness of the shelf areas in most part of the region, the concentration of effort inshore areas will continue to fuel conflicts between different fisheries sectors. 3.3. The South American-Caribbean region fisheries 3.3.1. Background: Industrialization of fisheries in S. American-Caribbean region The South American-Caribbean region fishing industry showed little expansion until the second half of 20th century (Christy, 1997). Before this period, fisheries in this region were limited to subsistence and artisanal levels as it been the case initially in all developing countries (Pauly and Zeller, 2003). While development of some fisheries go as far back as 1602 (Freire, 2003), there were only isolated attempts of industrialization, e.g., in Peru for 85 canned products in the 1930s (Doucet and Einarsson, 1966). Otherwise, in most of the countries in the region fisheries development attempts remained rare until the mid 20 t h century (Christy, 1997). The period after the WW II is characterized by a global demand for fish and fish products (Cushing, 1988), and several countries in the region catered to this demand by fully conditioning their fisheries industrialization policies upon export markets (Doucet and Einarsson, 1966; Deligiannis, 2000; Rudd, 2003). In the process, several countries in this region embarked on major fisheries development schemes in the 1950s and the 1960s, involving fishing capacity expansion, fleet mechanization and fishing gear technology acquisition (Christ, 1997; Prado and drew, 1999; Freire, 2003; Mohammed and Joseph, 2003; Mohammed et. al, 2003; Mohammed et al, 2003a; Mohammed and Rennie, 2003; Mohammed and Shing, 2003; Mendoza et al, 2003). To illustrate the export driven rapid expansion of fishing industry in this part of the world, the rise and sudden collapse of the Peruvian anchoveta fishery can serve as an example. The Peruvian anchoveta fishmeal industry was established through a joint venture arrangement between a company from San Francisco and a Peruvian investor in 1950 (Parraga, 1986). From the early 1950s to the early 1960s, the Peruvian anchoveta industry took a leading position in the world's fishmeal production, landing annual catch of nearly one million metric tonnes (Doucet and Einarsson, 1966; Deligiannis, 2000). Catch continued growing in the 1960s and early 1970s, hitting a peak of about 12.5 million tonnes in 1970, with a fishing effort of anywhere between 1,400 to 1,800 boats (figures vary between sources) crewed by 21,700 fishers (Deligiannis, 2000). The fishery was the largest single species fishery in the world, but it suddenly collapsed in the early 1970s (Clark, 1976; Pauly and Tsukayama, 1987; Csirke, 1989). The collapse was caused mainly due to overfishing by an over-expanded fleet, though at the time it was largely attributed the ' E l Nino' event of 1972-73 (Clark, 1976; Longhurst and Pauly, 1987; Csirke, 1989; FAO, 1996; FAO, 1997b; Christy, 1997; Deligiannis, 2000). The impact of this collapse was immense. Both the fleet and the processing plants lost their resource base (Csirke, 1989). The spectacular decline of the total fishing effort targeting Peruvian anchoveta stock in Peru is shown in Fig. 3.13. 86 20 r ^ 18 -? 16 I *o. 14 I t 12 LU 2 -0 -1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 Year Fig . 3.13. Trajectory of Peruvian fishing effort targeting Peruvian anchoveta ("Csirke, 1989). Fig. 3.13 shows that during the collapse of the anchoveta fishery directed fishing effort was reduced by about a factor of 6 from its level in 1960. Comparable, but less spectacular, pelagic fisheries boom and bust occurred in neighboring Chile as well. The Chilean Northern pelagic fishery underwent rapid expansion in the 1970s and quickly depleted the anchovy stock in Northern Chile, plunging the fleet into a financial crisis that led to privatization of the fleet in the late 1970s (Thorpe and Reid, 1999). The bankrupted fleet switched partly to fishing other pelagic species, such as jack mackerel (Trachurus murphyi) and South American pilchard (Sardinops sagax) and partly moved southwards into then under-exploited fishing grounds (Thorpe and Reid, 1999). Chilean subsidized fisheries investments extended into the early 1980s, leading to overfishing of new fisheries (Basch et al, 1995; Thorpe and Reid, 1999), despite government attempts to mitigate overfishing through application of minimum catch size and closed areas (Thorpe and Reid, 1999). Similarly, the pelagic fishery in Southern Chile nearly collapsed in the 1990s (Basch et al., 1995; Aguilar et al., 2003). The biomass of the jack mackerel species, which constituted about 90% of the catches of pelagic fishery in Southern Chile, dropped by about 30% of 1980s level (Aguilar et al., 2003), while the fishing effort targeting this stock continued growing (Basch et al., 1995). Total collapse of this fishery was averted by timely management intervention, involving cut back in fishing capacity to the level of 1986, and imposition of strict quota system (Basch et al., 1995; Aguilar et al., 2003). In most countries of the region, similar fishing effort expansion policies were implemented, i f at a slower pace. In the 1970s, especially after the declaration of the EEZ 87 regime, fisheries expansion gained increasing attention and several countries in the region opted to further expand their offshore fleet capacities by involving quasi-governmental enterprises, some of which funded by the Inter-American Development Bank (Christy, 1997) and local banks (Mohammed and Joseph, 2003). As a result, several countries, such as Brazil, Mexico, Cuba, Ecuador, Colombia, Nicaragua, Panama, Peru and Venezuela implemented government-sponsored fisheries expansion programs (Weidner and Hall, 1993; Christy, 1997). Suriname, Trinidad, Colombia, Cuba, Guyana, Mexico, Nicaragua, Peru and Uruguay even established government fishing companies that promoted fishing industry expansion (Christy, 1997). Similarly, huge subsidization of fishing fleet expansions in the 1970s, involving loans for vessels, gear purchases and fuel tax rebates, were implemented in several Caribbean islands (Mohammed, 2003; Mohammed and Joseph, 2003; Mohammed et al, 2003; Mohammed et al, 2003a; Mohammed and Rennie, 2003; Mohammed and Shing, 2003). Parallel to these offshore fleet expansion programs, the inshore fleet sector also expanded, as was to be expected under an open access regime (Christy, 1997). As the result, the impact of the expansion was considerable throughout the region. Adding to the collapse alluded to above, sardine stocks (Sardinella brasiliensis) along the Brazilian coast have collapsed (Vasconcellos, 2000; Freire, 2003), and the abundance of other pelagic fish and several of groundfish species, such as the Argentine hake (Merluccius hubbsi) and Patagonian toothfish (Dissostichus eleginoides), were heavily exploited by the fleets of the region (Basch et al, 1995; FAO, 1997b; Christy, 1997; Thorpe and Reid, 1999; FAO, 1997b; Renato et al, 2004). Similar trends, characterized by declines in CPUE, reduction in the size of fish caught and changes in species composition became common experiences of fisheries in the Caribbean section of the region as well (Anon, 2005c; Baisre et al, 2003; Mohammed, 2003, Mohammed et al, 2003a; Mohammed and Joseph, 2003, Mohammed et al, 2003; Rudd, 2003)). As the result of declines in the fish resources, the giant state-run fishing companies of the region did not achieve the intended goals of increased productivity but rather turned into financial liabilities in most of the countries (Christy, 1997). For instance, in the 1970s and 1980s, the nationalized fishing companies in Peru incurred a huge deficit, forcing the government to provide hundreds of millions of dollars in subsidies (Weidner and Hall, 1993). 88 The general failure of state-run fishing companies led to privatization of most fishing companies in the region (Christy, 1997). Despite such poor economic performance of the fishing industries and increasingly declining catch per unit of effort (CPUE), fishing fleets continued expanding throughout the 1990s in many countries in the region (Christy, 1997; Mohammed, 2003; Mohammed and Joseph, 2003; Mohammed et al, 2003; Mohammed et al, 2003a; Mohammed and Rennie, 2003). As the result, since the late 1980s, the fishing industry of the region became overcapitalized and increasingly characterized by conflicts (Thorpe and Reid, 1999). This section deals with the issue of fishing effort spatio-temporal expansion in the region from 1970 to 2000. Before directly analyzing the evolution and distribution of total fishing effort in the region, an overview of the status of countries of the region, as measured by their fishing capacity, and the region's fleet diversity are presented below. 3.3.2. Relative status of countries in S. American-Caribbean region fisheries As has been done for other regions in the preceding sections, the relative status of countries is measured in terms of the tonnage of their motorized fleets (Table 3.3). The top ten countries together accounted for about 88% of the region's fishing capacity in total tonnage (Table 3.3). Table 3.3. Fishing capacity of the top ten countries in South American-Caribbean region, based on data for 1995. Rank Country Relative fleet capacity (% tonnage) 1 Mexico 19 2 Panama 16 3 Argentina 10 4 Peru 9 5 Puerto Rico 9 6 Chile 8 7 Cuba 7 8 Venezuela 5 9 Brazil 4 10 Ecuador 3 11-40 Others(30) 12 89 In stark contrast to the European-North American and the Asia-Pacific regions, in which cases one dominant country could be singled out, the fishing industry of the S. American-Caribbean region is not dominated by any single country. Rather, Mexico accounts for about 19% of the total tonnage capacity of the region, with Panama and Argentina following closely (Table 3.3). The share of other countries in the top ten list range from 3-9%, while that of the remaining 30 countries not listed here, together, accounted for only 12% of the region's fishing capacity. Mexico's concerted effort in expanding fisheries began in the 1970s, when the Mexican government fostered fisheries expansion through creation of fishing cooperatives (284 cooperatives nationwide, with more than 39,000 members) and construction of new plants for freezing and processing fish (FAO, 1997b; Anon, 2005a). From the mid 1980s on, the fisheries expansion program was further boosted with infusion of $5 billion expansion subsidy to expand the offshore fleet and increase output by more than 30% between 1985 and 1990 (Anon, 2005a). The expansion programs for offshore industrial fisheries, coupled with inshore fleet expansions, mainly driven by the open access regime prevalent in Mexican fisheries, resulted in increase of fishing effort, leading to overfishing of important commercial stocks and overcapitalization of fishing fleet in Mexico (Defeo, 2003; Anon, 2005c). In Panama, industrial-scale expansion of the small pelagic fishery began in the 1950s, and later diversified by targeting large pelagics (FAO, 2005a). Also, Panama exerted concerted effort to modernize its fishing industry through motorization of its coastal fisheries. For instance, in the early 1990s alone, Panama introduced about 13,000 marine outboard motors for the purpose of promoting the coastal fishery (Anon, 1998). As a result, there has been continuous increase in the number of vessels and expansion of the artisanal fisheries (FAO, 2005a). In Argentina, after the country emerged from its defeat in the 1982 Falkland War, the government revitalized the fisheries sector through various subsidies involving exemption of fishing vessels from trade taxes, nationalization of foreign fleets and replacement of old fishing vessels by modern ones (Thrope and Reid, 1999). These incentives, coupled with promise of economic stability, led to large investment in fishing fleet expansion throughout the late 1980s (FAO, 1996; Thrope and Reid, 1999; UNEP, 2002). The drastic expansion of 90 fishing fleet, however, led to overfishing of many commercial stocks, with one important stock, the Argentine hake, collapsing in the 1990s (FAO, 1996; Thorpe and Reid, 1999). Similar fisheries expansion programs were implemented in all countries in the above list though with varying degree of commitments (Christy, 1997; Thorpe and Reid, 1999; Freire, 2003; Mendoza et al, 2003; Mohammed, 2003; Mohammed and Joseph, 2003; Mohammed et al, 2003; Mohammed et al, 2003a; Mohammed and Rennie, 2003). This trend has been a common phenomenon in most countries of the region as well (Christy, 1997; Thorpe and Reid, 1999). As the result, the fisheries of the region are characterized by overcapitalization, stock depletions and conflicts (Thorpe and Reid, 1999). 3.3.3. Trends in size composition of S. American-Caribbean region fishing fleets The size profiles of fishing fleets could be used as an index for their diversity. By analyzing changes in fleet size profiles over time, it is possible to examine whether the fisheries in this region have made any significant shift in fleet diversity or maintained their traditional composition. As in previous regions, the fleet statistics data of the region were roughly split into inshore fleet (vessels <=149.9 tonnes) and offshore fleets (>=150 tonnes). The results of the analyses are shown in Fig. 3.14. 140 90 80 * 70 CO 1) 60 ess 50 >, <D N 40 CO 30 1 20 co 10 6 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 Year Fig . 3.14. Temporal changes in the share of the inshore and offshore fleets in the fisheries of S. America-Caribbean region. 91 The offshore and inshore sectors of the region's fishing fleet have shown a steady growth in the period 1970-1990, after which the trend stabilized (Fig. 3.14). The size of the offshore fleet sector grew from 4,800 boats in 1970 to about 7,900 boats in 2000, showing an increase of about 64% over three decades. In terms of percentage composition, the offshore fleet constituted about 35% of the total fishing fleet of the region in 1970, while this figure grew to about 39% in 2000, indicating a moderate shift in the composition of the region's fleets toward offshore sector. The growth in the offshore fleet (1970-1990) is the result of capacity expansion programs implemented since 1970s by several countries in the region as described in Sections 3.3.1 and 3.3.2. However, the increasing trend appeared to have stagnated after the 1990s. This could be associated with overexploitation of the fish resources of the region (FAO, 1996) that resulted in poor economic performance which in turn led to policies of fishing fleet downsizing, mainly through privatization of previously government-owned fishing companies in most countries in the region (Christy, 1997). As to the inshore fleet sector, it increased from about 8,800 boats in 1970 to about 11,800 boats in 2000 (34% growth). The inshore fleet followed the same pattern, showing continuous increase until 1990, then stabilizing. The increasing trend in the inshore fleet sector is the result of the open access regime prevalent in most countries of this region (Christy, 1997; Thorpe and Reid, 1999; Defeo, 2003; Anon, 2005c). Open access policy treats fish as a 'free for all ' resource thereby encouraging entry into fisheries (Rogers, 1995; Stump and Batker, 1996; Pauly et al., 2002). The second factor that potentially compounded the effect of open access regime is population movement to coastal cities, a chronic problem in all developing countries (Marcoux, 1997; Weber, 1997). Reports show that the number of fishers grew by 98% between 1975 and 1993 in this region (FAO, 1996c). Obviously, when land is scarce and job opportunities in other economic sectors are as scarce, open access to fishing grounds gives poor people, at least, the hope of making a living, boosting the number of fishers and the size of inshore fleet. Stagnation in the growth of the inshore fleet after 1990 can be associated with resource deletion. The stagnation of effort suggested by Fig. 3.14 for the 1990s was not consistent for every country of the region (Fig. 3.15). For instance, fishing fleet expansion continued in Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador and Venezuela for both the inshore and the offshore 92 sectors. While the 'others' category including countries, such as Mexico, Peru, Chile, Cuba, Panama and Puerto Rico showed a declining or stagnant trend after 1990 (Fig. 3.15). 1970 1980 1990 2000 1970 1980 1990 2000 Year Year Fig. 3.15. Temporal trends in inshore and offshore fleets in selected countries in the South American-Caribbean region namely; Argentina, Brazi l , Colombia, Ecuador, Venezuela and Others (remaining) countries. 93 Perhaps more countries show such increasing trends in their fishing fleet sizes after 1990, but the examples are enough to show that the stagnation of the fisheries in the 1990s was not occurring in every country in the region. Indeed, some countries were actively engaged in expanding their fisheries in both the inshore and offshore sectors as late as in 2000 (Fig. 3.15). 3.3.4. Evolution of fishing effort in S. American-Caribbean region fisheries As also done in previous sections, fishing effort here is defined as the product of number of vessels, fishing activity (mean annual number of days fished) and fishing power. The results of temporal analyses of total fishing effort of the region, over the period 1970-2000, are shown in Fig. 3.16 and 3.17. 1970 1980 1990 2000 Year Fig . 3.16. Temporal trends in fishing effort in the South American-Caribbean region. As can be seen from Fig. 3.16, total fishing effort in this region has been growing since 1970, with a single deep in the early 1970s, due to the contraction of Peruvian anchoveta fishery (Fig. 3.17). However, since the mid 1990s, the increasing trend reversed, and now shows a clear decline. 94 Fig . 3.17. Evolution of total fishing effort in Peru and the South American-Caribbean region. The decline in Peruvian fishing effort in the early 1970s is linked to the collapse of Peruvian anchoveta fishery, which led the Peruvian government to nationalize the purse seiner fleet in 1973, and reduce excess capacity in the following years (Csirke, 1989; Anon, 2005b). However, after the 1980s and through to the mid 1990s Peruvian fishing effort increased again, a result of the recovery of anchoveta stocks, and vessels originally granted permission to fish for either human consumption or to target other underexploited pelagic stocks were allowed to target anchovies (FAO, 1996). In general, until the early 1980s, the S. American-Caribbean region, especially the Southwest Atlantic, was among the few major fishing areas of the world with large potential for expanding total catches (FAO, 1996). However, expansion of fishing effort, mostly by mechanized fisheries, have occurred since. As a result, most fish stocks in the region are now considered fully exploited, while some have been overexploited over the past few years (FAO, 1996). The overall decline in the status of stocks and effort reduction measures taken by some countries in the region are the reasons behind effort decline shown in the 1990s. 95 3.3.5. Distribution of fishing effort in S. America-Caribbean region fisheries The results of spatial analyses of groundfish and small pelagic fisheries are presented separately as described in the following sections. 3.3.5.1. Groundfish fisheries The most spectacular groundfish catches in this region are made of species like Argentine hake (Merluccius hubbsi), Southern blue whiting (Micromesistius australis), South Pacific hake {Merluccius gayi gayi), the Patagonian grenadier (Macruronus magellanicus), Argentine croaker (Umbrina canosai) and various species of weakfishes (Cynoscion spp.) (FAO, 1997b). The results of the analyses of distribution of fishing effort targeting groundfish in South American-Caribbean region are shown on decadal basis from 1970 to 2000 in Fig. 3.18. 96 1970 1980 Fig. 3.18. Predicted spatial distribution of fishing effort targeting groundfish species in the South American-Caribbean region. Note: The bulk of Chilean fleet constitute pelagic vessels, which explains the low fishing effort concentration shown in Chilean waters for groundfish fisheries. Light gray: 0.0-2.5 log hpdays.km2; dark gray: 2.6-12.1 log hpdays.km" . In the Eastern Central Pacific, high fishing intensity is predicted for the G u l f of California and inshore areas of Baja California, inshore areas of Central Americas (Fig. 3.18). The G u l f of California is a rich Mexican fishing ground, accounting for about 40% of Mexican catches (Anon, 2005c). In the G u l f of Mexico increasing fishing pressure caused overfishing, i f not by directed fisheries, then by the shrimp fisheries, where juvenile groundfish represent a large proportion of by-catch ( F A O , 1997b). 97 In the Southeast Pacific, high fishing effort intensity is predicted along the inshore coasts of Ecuador, Peru and South Central Chile. The areas with high predicted effort concentration roughly coincides with most productive trawling grounds off Northern Peru and South Central Chile along the west coast of South America. In these areas, the continental shelf is rather narrow and steeply sloping throughout, except for some limited areas off southern Ecuador, Northern Peru and Southern Chile, where the shelf might reach a maximum width of 120 km (FAO, 1997b). In these areas, high fishing effort concentrates on heavily exploited stocks of hake. Other groundfish species such as the Patagonian grenadier, the Patagonian hake and some toothfishes are considered fully exploited, with some of them giving signs of over-exploitation in the 1990s (FAO, 1997b). In the South Central Atlantic, high fishing effort is predicted in Mexico's Yucatan Gulf, the inshore areas of Cuba, Puerto Rico, Venezuela, Guyana and the Caribbean coasts of central Americas. As for other countries in the region, these countries, particularly Cuba, Mexico and Venezuela had expanded their fishing fleets in the 1970s and 1980s (Baisre et al., 2003; Christy, 1997). The effort expansion programs resulted in fishing effort accumulation in their major fishing grounds as shown in Fig. 3.18. As a result, the fisheries of these areas have been characterized by generally increasing catches in recent decades, with serious consequences for vulnerable species such as Nassau grouper (Epinephelus striatus) (FAO, 1997b). In the Southwest Atlantic, high fishing effort intensity is predicted in inshore areas of Southern Brazil, Uruguay and Southern Argentina, Patagonia (Fig. 3.18). In the last decades, the countries in this sub-region have also developed industrial fleets that had a major impact on the groundfish stocks (FAO, 1996). Thus, the available assessments and information on exploitation rates indicate that the Argentine hake stock is fully exploited, and probably tends toward overexploitation, while the stocks of the other major groundfish species, such as (Southern blue whiting and Patagonian grenadier) are moderately-to-fully exploited (FAO, 1997b). 98 3.3.5.2. Small pelagic fisheries This region produces high catch of small pelagics, due to high primary productivity, resulting from the occurrence of major wind-driven upwelling systems of the Californian Current, along the northern Pacific coast, and the Humboldt Current in the South (Bakun et al., 1999). Thus, the coastal areas are dominated by coastal upwelling, making this area a rich fishing ground (Csirke, 1989; FAO, 1996; FAO, 1997b; Christy, 1997; Deligiannis, 2000), attracting large fishing effort. The most abundant small pelagic fish catches in this region are made of Peruvian anchoveta (Engraulis ringens), the South American sardine (Sardinops sagax), horse mackerels (Trachurus spp.), the Pacific jack mackerel (Trachurus murphyi), Pacific anchoveta (Cetengraulis mysticetus) and California anchovy {Engraulis mordax) (FAO, 1996; FAO, 1997b). The results of analyses of fishing effort distribution targeting small pelagic fish in S. American-Caribbean region are shown on decadal basis from 1970 to 2000 in Fig. 3.19. 99 1970 1980 Fig . 3.19. Predicted spatial distribution of fishing effort targeting small pelagic fishes in the South American-Caribbean region fisheries. Light gray: 0.0-2.1 log hpdays.km" 2; dark gray: 2.2-12.0 log hpdays.km" 2. In the Eastern Central Pacific, high fishing intensity is predicted for the Gulf of California, inshore areas of Baja California and inshore areas of Central Americas. As mentioned earlier, the area is under the influence of two major surface current systems: the California Current in the north and the Humboldt Current in the south (FAO, 1997b; Bakun et al., 1999). FAO has been documenting build up of fishing effort, targeting several pelagic 100 fish stocks, on these grounds. According to FAO (1997a), the combination of heavy exploitation from expanding fishing effort and environmental variability reduced abundances and catches of California sardine and California anchovy to very low levels, with more drastic depletions occurring off Mexico. The Pacific anchoveta, which sustains a major industrial fishery in Panama, is also being fully exploited (FAO, 1997a; FAO, 2005a). In the Southeast Pacific, high fishing effort intensity is predicted for coastal Peru and Northern and Central Chile (Fig. 3.19), which is consistent with reports documenting overexploitation of several local stocks of small pelagics (FAO, 1997a; FAO, 2005a). The impacts of such high fishing effort intensity have been widely documented in F A O and other documents. As far back as the early 1970s, heavy fishing pressure in this area had played a major role in the collapse of anchoveta fisheries off Peru (Longhurst and Pauly, 1987; Csirke, 1989; Deligiannis, 2000). In the late 1970s, the coincidence of favorable environmental conditions and controlled fishing allowed the stock to recover but that recovery was short-lived and soon met with resumption of heavy fishing by fleets previously targeting other pelagic stocks (FAO, 1996 and 1997b). Likewise, the anchovy stock on the northern coast of Chile was depleted by over-expanded Chilean Northern pelagic fleet in the 1970s (Thorpe and Reid, 1999). Similarly, the South American sardine was heavily exploited and even disappeared from some areas (FAO, 1997b). Total biomass and total catch of this species has been declining since the mid 1980s, which is believed to be due to combination of heavy fishing and environmental variability (FAO, 1997b). Likewise, fishing pressure on the Chilean jack mackerel has also been increasing rapidly and the stock was characterized as moderately-to-fully exploited, with increased chance of becoming over-exploited (Basch et al., 1995; FAO, 1997b; Renato et al, 2004). In Chile, where Jack mackerel constitute the bulk of their pelagic catches, the decline of the stock triggered a series of regulatory measures involving area closure, license limitation and catch quotas by Chilean authorities in the 1990s to reduce Chilean fishing effort (Basch et al, 1995; Renato et al., 2004). Thus, the low fishing effort in 2000 in Southern Chile can be attributed to effort reduction as the result of the regulatory measures imposed by Chile in the 1990s. In the South Central Atlantic, high fishing effort intensity is predicted in the Yucatan Gulf, Puerto Rico, inshore areas of Venezuela, Guyana and the Caribbean coast of central 101 Americas. Even though there is lack of hard information on the consequences of such high fishing effort on the status of small pelagic fish stocks in these areas, there is a general agreement that most stocks were fully or over-exploited in the 1990s (FAO, 1997b). In the Southwest Atlantic, high fishing effort is predicted in the inshore areas of Southern Brazil, Southern Argentina (Patagonia) and inshore areas of Uruguay. The countries in these areas, notably Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay have developed industrial fleets over the years causing depletion of several small pelagic stocks in the areas including the Brazilian sardinella, which has been overfished for several years (FAO, 1996; FAO, 1997b; Vasconcellos, 2000). Generally, for both the groundfish (Fig. 3.18) and small pelagic fisheries (Fig. 3.19), the geographic range of fleets increased, despite model rules imposed to limit the offshore range of fleets in low latitudes to account for poor fish abundance in open tropical oceans (Longhurst and Pauly, 1997), e.g., around Caribbean islands. The range expansion is the result of expansion of medium-range fleets as coastal stocks increasingly depleted, as demonstrated in tremendous increase in the average tonnage capacity of fleets in the region (Fig. 2.3). Nevertheless, the bulk of the region's fishing fleets still operate inshore, with the familiar consequences of conflicts with artisanal fisheries, as discussed in previous sections. 3.3.6. Conclusions Fishing effort in this region has evolved through stages of neglect, rapid expansion and finally appeared to have entered a stage of contraction, even though, the contraction stage is not yet apparent throughout the region. Similar fisheries expansion trend has been identified by Christy (1997) for this region. Two major factors can be identified for the over-expansion of fishing effort in this region. Government-sponsored fisheries expansion policies implemented in the 1970s and 1980s, and the open access regime prevalent in most countries of the region. This is further compounded by population increase and coastward migration and eventual entry into the fishery sector, as a livelihood of last resort. Drastic depletion of major commercial stocks, even in the areas where stocks were considered lightly exploited in the early 1980s, appear to have been linked to the large fishing effort expansions in the region throughout the last three decades. 102 High fishing effort is predicted in inshore areas along the coasts of major fishing nations of the region. However, as coastal stocks depleted over time, the fishing operations of the region expanded after 1980. Except for the Patagonian shelf and Falkland, where the continental shelves extend well beyond 370 km, most of the continental shelves in the region are narrow strips of less than 120 km (FAO, 1997b). Thus, the fleets have the entire distribution of the targeted stocks within their operational range, denying the fish any natural refuge offshore. This increases the risk of recruitment failure, as offshore spawning fish are all within the range of the fisheries. 3.4. The African region fisheries 3.4.1. Background: Industrialization of fisheries in African region Coastal Africans depend heavily on fish for animal protein, with varying degree of dependence among sub-regions and countries. The continent as a whole is second only to Southeast Asia in dependence on fish for animal protein (Haakonsen, 1992). However, Africa accounts for about 8% of global fish catches (Tvedten and Hersoug, 1992), with considerable regional variation. The Western and Southern sub-regions account for more than 80% of the continent's marine catches (Tvedten and Hersoug, 1992). In the following paragraphs the evolution of African fishing industry is briefly described, with emphasis on the Western and Southern sub-regions, where fisheries are most important. Although the commercial exploitation of northwest African fish resources was started at the end of 19 th century, with the initiation of the Moroccan pelagic fishery for pilchard (Sardinella pilchardus), it was only in the late 1950s that African industrial fisheries expanded south of the Gulf of Guinea (Troadec, 1983). Before the mid 1950s, with the exception of the Republic of South Africa with industrial fleets launched in the 1920s (Scott, 1951; Goodisan, 1992), African fish resources were only exploited by artisanal fisheries (Johnson, 1992; Tvedten and Hersoug, 1992). However, this state of affairs began to change when some colonial powers, such as Spain, Portugal, Italy and France, began commercially exploiting the waters of their colonies (Njifonjou and Njock, 2000; Alder and Sumaila, 2004). The emergence of high demand for frozen fish and progressive development of freezing technologies prompted some European fleet owners to move part of their fleets to African colonies, such as, Senegal, Guinea, Equatorial Guinea, Angola, Mozambique, 103 Mauritania, the Cote d'lvoire and Benin in the early 1950s (Njifonjou and Njock, 2000). As the result, the commercial exploitation of the fish resources of the continent was dominated by these colonial powers, accounting for example up to 70% of the catches in West Africa (Crutchfield and Lawson, 1974). In the late 1950s and 1960s, when decolonization began, the newly emerged African countries embarked on fisheries expansion programs, i.e., by copying the strategies of developed countries (Lawson and Kwei, 1974; Troadec, 1983; Haakonsen, 1992; Tvedten and Hersoug, 1992). In most African countries, fisheries industrialization was primarily initiated by locally based European owners of small fleets (Troadec, 1983; Njifonjou and Njock, 2000). The then popular expectation, promoted by the retreating colonial powers, was that the traditional indigenous artisanal fisheries were inefficient and would eventually give way to the supposedly more efficient industrial fisheries (Troadec, 1983). The artisanal fisheries in these schemes were supposed to serve as source of experienced fishers to the industrial fisheries (Troadec, 1983; Pauly, 1996). This strategy was embraced by enthusiastic new African nations eager to free themselves from foreign economic dependence by developing their own natural resources (Lawson and Kwei, 1974). To that end, subsidies by local governments and international development agencies were provided for development of industrial fleets (Haakonsen, 1992; Jul-Larsen, 1992; Tvedten and Hersoug, 1992). As a result, fleets of medium-sized trawlers and purse seiners quickly emerged and expanded, primarily in Northwest and West Africa (Troadec, 1983). However, despite concerted efforts to establish industrial scale fisheries, only a handful of countries, such as Angola, the Cote d'lvoire, Senegal, Morocco, Mauritania and Nigeria managed to build a semblance of industrial fleets (Lawson and Kwei, 1974; Crutchfield and Lawson, 1974; Haakonsen, 1992; Tvedten and Hersoug, 1992). However, most of the fishing companies in West African countries suffered financial crises and bankrupted in the later periods (Lawson and Kwei, 1974; Haakonsen, 1992 and Kebe, 1993). For instance Senegalese sardine trawler fishing fleet was reduced to nine vessels in the early 1990s (Kebe, 1993). Only Ghana was successful in establishing an industrial fleet and, at time, even engaged in distant-water fisheries. In the 1950s and 1960s Ghana was an important industrial fishing nation in West Africa (Atta-Mills et al., 2004). During this period, Ghanaian fleets 104 grew from 12 large vessels in 1954 to 384 in 1969, representing a 32-fold increase over 15 years (Lawson and Kwei, 1974), and operated all over West African waters (Atta-Mills et al, 2004). However, the decline of Ghanaian distant-water fishing began in the 1960s, when some African countries expelled the Ghanian fleet citing security reasons (Atta-Mills et al, 2004). In the subsequent years, the decline was further aggravated by financial difficulties (following the expulsions and decline of catches from their own EEZ) and finally squeezed out of distant-water fishing by more competitive foreign fleets, mainly from the Western Europe, Russia and China (Atta-Mills et al., 2004). The collapse of Ghanaian distant-water fishing heavily impacted the stocks in its EEZ with series consequences on the country's domestic fisheries economy (Atta-Mills et al., 2004; Koranteng and Pauly, 2004) Overall, the absence of infrastructure for local industrial fleets along with lack of skilled personnel and managerial/administrative capabilities, high operation cost and the absence of local markets gave a competitive advantage to foreign distant-water fleets and even to local small-scale fisheries (Crutchfield and Lawson, 1974; Troadec, 1983; Haakonsen, 1992; Hersoug, 1992). In addition, the lack of secure resource base, conflicting goals, politics, absence of property rights and the emergence of EEZ regimes were cited in the literature to explain the failure of local industrial fisheries in Africa (see Crutchfield and Lawson, 1974; Troadec, 1983; Haakonsen, 1992; Hersoug, 1992 for details). Due to such a near total absence of local industrial fisheries in most African countries foreign distant water fleets largely dominated the West African total catches since the 1960s (Crutchfield and Lawson, 1974; Alder and Sumaila, 2004). They continued to dominate as European and Asian countries redeployed their excess fleets through bilateral agreements after the establishment of the EEZ regime (Troadec, 1983; Njifonjou and Njock, 2000; Kaczynski and Fulharty, 2002; Alder and Sumaila, 2004). The impacts of foreign fleets on African fish resources and the role of long-distance fishing nations in influencing fisheries management decisions in Africa are subjects of real concern (see Alder and Sumaila, 2004 for insight into foreign fishing in African waters). However, the analysis of distant water fleets is outside the scope of this study (See the detailed account of distant water fleets in Bonfil etal, 1998). Disappointed by the failures of development attempts directed at developing local industrial fisheries in the 1950s and the 1960s, many African countries later turned their 105 attentions to modernizing their inshore artisanal fisheries through introduction of modern fishing gears and motorization of canoes (Troadec, 1983; Haakonsen, 1992; Jul-Larsen, 1992; Pauly, 1997). Official policies underpinning the need to invest in small-scale fishing communities began to surface. These include the need to redistribute the national wealth to underprivileged population, the need to directly promote rural development, to expand the geographical distribution of economic activities and counteracting urban migration (Troadec, 1983). To that end, many countries directed their aid programs to the small-scale fisheries sector (Haakonsen, 1992; Jul-Larsen, 1992). The magnitude of subsidies provided to modernize small-scale fisheries varies from country to country. To illustrate the scale of the canoe modernization efforts, total subsidies provided by four West African countries (Nigeria, The Gambia, Senegal and the Cote d'lvoire) in the 1970s and early 1980s are summarized here based on a report by Mabawonku (1986). The Nigerian government provided credit through the Nigerian Agricultural and Cooperative Bank at low interest rate, built landing jetties, cold storage facilities, refrigerated trucks for fish distribution and established training facilities for fishermen. Between 1979 and 1983, the value of inputs distributed was approximately 42,000 USD, half of which represented a transfer to fishermen. Credit granted to fishers averaged approx. 112,000 USD between 1980 and 1983, while the subsidy element was about approx. 17,000 USD. In Gambia, subsidies involved the provision of engines, nets and floats on the one hand and provision of loans to fishers by the Gambian Commercial and Development Bank at low interest rates. Loans had been granted as far back as the 1970s. Between 1980 and 1985, total lending to fishers was approx. 25,000 USD. Estimated transfer to the fishers, given the differential interest rates, was approx. 3,200 USD or 13% of the loans, assuming a payment period of two years. In Senegal, the major subsidies are cheap fuel and the waiving of duties on export offish and fish products. The total of transfer payment for the period 1980-1985 was approx. 33.6 million USD. In the Cote d'lvoire, subsidies involve loans for fishing vessel purchase and provision of subsidized fuel. Loans for purchase of fishing materials were also granted by the National Bank for Agricultural Development. For the most part, these projects were successful in modernizing the inshore small-scale sector. The success can be illustrated by the rate of canoe motorization in selected African countries (Table 3.4) and especially in Ghana (Fig. 3.20). 106 CD O c ro o "O CD N o o Fig. 3.20. Motorized canoes as percentage of total canoes in Ghana. Data from T.awsnn and K w e i (1974Y Fig. 3.20 shows that Ghanaian canoe fleet constituted only 20% of motorized canoes in 1961, while this number grew to 77% over a short period of 8 years. With some variations, similar motorization rate were achieved in other African countries (Table 3.4). 107 Table 3.4. Motorized canoes, in percentage of all canoes, in various West African marine fisheries (data from Haakonsen, 1992). Year Country Motorization rate (%) 1987 Mauritania 90 1986 Senegal 64 1987 Togo 56 1986 Cote dTvoire 55 1983 Gabon 52 1986 Ghana 52 1984 Gambia 48 1985 Congo 48 1986 Nigeria 40 1985 Guinea 38 1987 Guinea-Bissau 35 1988 Benin 35 1984 Cape Verde 34 1984 Cameroon 33 1986 Liberia 30 1979 Sao Tome and Princi 20 1979 Congo (Ex-Zaire) 11 1981 Sierra Leone 10 1985 Eq. Guinea 3 Table 3.4, shows that the rate of motorization range, in the 1980s, from 3% in Equatorial Guinea to 90% in Mauritania, with an overall unweighted mean of 40%. Parallel with motorization of artisanal fleets, the size of inshore/artisanal fleets has also been continuously growing, mainly driven by natural increase in the number of fishers and partly due to population movement to the fisheries sector from other sectors, as in many parts of developing world (Troadec, 1983; Johnson, 1992; Platteau, 1992; Pauly 1997; Baylon, 1997; Weber, 1997). 108 This is particularly evident in areas prone to repeated natural and other disasters, such as countries visited by recurring droughts (Platteau, 1992) and in countries devastated by civil wars (Johnson, 1992) and countries with high unemployment rates (Troadec, 1983). Studies indicate that number of fishers in African coastal states grew by 79% between 1975 and 1993 (FAO, 1996c). This large growth in the number of fishers presumably includes increases from within the fishing communities, plus new entrants. As a result, artisanal fisheries accounted for over 40% of the total catch of the continent by the mid-to-late 1980s (Tvedten and Hersoug, 1992). On top of such domestic population movement dynamics, African fisheries are characterized by inter-regional migration of fishers, often during seasons of low agricultural production, from countries with long tradition of fishing to countries where fish sources are less exploited (Njifonjou and Njock, 2000). Fisher movements have been reported from Senegal to Mauritania and Guinea, from Ghana to the Cote d'lvoire, Guinea or Cameroon and from Nigeria and Benin to Congo, Gabon and Cameroon (Njifonjou and Njock, 2000). For instance, in 1993, of the 20,000 traditional fishers in Cameroon, 80% were foreigners and among these, Nigerians, Beninese and Ghanaians formed the major components (Theodore, 1993). Trans-border ethnic ties, a mobile lifestyle and unique African hospitality by host communities were cited as reasons driving inter-regional fisher migration (Kebe, 1993, Diaw, 1992) . Further, the large-scale canoe mechanization efforts achieved by African nations have also directly contributed to long-distance migrations by boosting fisher mobility (Kebe, 1993) . These complex interactions of various factors driving fishing effort expansions did impact the resource base of the continent. In particular, the combination of uncontrolled small-scale fishing effort expansions, coupled with heavy exploitation by local industrial fleets (e.g., in South Africa and Morocco) and foreign distant-water fleets, began to take its toll on several important commercial fisheries in as early as the 1960s. For example, the South African pilchard (Sardinops ocellatd), Cape lobster (Homarinus capensis) and hake (Merluccius capensis) fisheries have been severely depleted since the late 1960s, triggering a series of effort reduction measures by the Republic of South Africa (Plessis, 1971; Goodisan, 1992; Sauer et al, 2003). In Ghana, the Ghanaian-Ivorian stock of sardinella (Sardinella aurita) collapsed twice in the 1970s due to intense exploitation from the small-scale fishery, 109 and the Ivorian shrimp fishery nearly collapsed due to recruitment failures caused by heavy exploitation from Ivorian small-scale fishery (Troadec, 1983). As the result of such resource depletions, some small-scale fisheries, which were faring well in the 1970s, such as the Senegalese canoe fishery, later faced economic crises (Troadec, 1983). The problem of inshore stock depletions in African inshore grounds is compounded by encroachment by large-scale industrial fleets, often resulting in competition and conflicts between small-scale and large-scale fisheries, further complicating the dynamics of African inshore fisheries (Crutchfield and Lawson, 1974; Theodore, 1993; Doumbia, 1993; Njie, 1993; Leon, 1993; Mensah and Koranteng, 1993; Kebe and Ndiaye, 1993; Pauly, 1997, Koranteng and Pauly, 2004; Alder and Sumaila, 2004). The conflicts involve physical destruction of fishing gears and competition for labor, for access to capital and market (Kebe, 1993). In almost all of these conflicts artisanal fishers are the victims. For instance, in Cameroon, annual loss involving net destruction by industrial trawlers is estimated at about US $200,000 per annum (Theodore, 1993). Between 1988 and 1992 in the Dakar and Thies regions of Senegal artisanal fisheries suffered a loss worth about 77,000 USD (Kebe, 1993). Satia and Horemans (1993) gave detailed analyses of conflicts among different sectors of African fishing fleets. In other parts of Africa, such as along the Mediterranean shores of North Africa and in East Africa, fisheries are least important, partly due to a poor resource base, reluctant government policies and culture (Tvedten and Hersoug, 1992; FAO, 1997). As a result, there has been discrepancy between potential and actual catches, especially off the Horn of Africa and in the Red Sea region (Tvedten and Hersoug, 1992). However, the gap has increasingly been filled by both legal and illegal foreign fishing (FAO, 1997; Coffen-Smout, 1999). With regard to illegal fishing, it may be appropriate to briefly highlight the situation prevailing in Somalia after the fall of the central government in 1991, after which the country came under the rule of self-appointed warlords and militia. The country became lawless and its people as well as its resources were without any protection. The fish resources of the country were one of the victims of the chaotic situation prevailed in Somalia for so long. Several international fleets have taken advantage of this lawlessness and turned Somali coasts into a truly free access 'gold mine', often using controversial fishing license agreements occasionally given by warlords (Coffen-Smout, 1999). With or without the 110 approval of the self-appointed rulers, a number of countries exploited Somali fish stocks to the extent of engaging in armed confrontation with local fishers (Musse and Tako, 1998). Since 1991, more than 200 illegal foreign fishing vessels have been seen fishing in Somali waters, some fishing as close as 5 miles from the coast (Musse and Tako, 1999). Fishing vessels known to operate off Somali coasts include the following flags: Belize (both French or Spanish-owned purse seiners operating under flag of convenience to avoid E U regulations), France (purse seiners targeting tuna, licensed to the food company Cobrecaf), Honduras (EU purse seiners targeting tuna under flag of convenience), Japan (longliners now operate under license to the Republic of Somaliland, i.e., Northern Somalia), Kenya (Mombasa-based trawlers), Korea (longliners targeting swordfish seasonally), Pakistan (trawlers, but also targeting shark), Saudi Arabia (trawlers), Spain (purse seiners targeting tuna), Sri Lanka (trawlers, plus longliners targeting shark under license from the Republic of Somaliland and based in Berbera, Somaliland), Taiwan (longliners targeting swordfish seasonally), Yemen (trawlers financed by a seafood importer in Bari, Italy), China, India, Portugal, Britain, Russia, Thailand and Germany (Coffen-Smout 1999; Musse and Tako, 1999). Estimated loss to illegal fishing was about $300 million US annually (Anon, 2005d). Some of the illegal foreign vessels have also been using destructive fishing techniques such as dynamite and drift netting, and are also reportedly engaged in destruction of coral reefs, nets and traps set by local fishers (Musse and Tako, 1999). On top of illegal resource extraction and ecosystem destruction, another type of problem facing the failed Somali state is the issue of hazardous waste disposal, which allegedly include nuclear waste, dumped by foreign firms in Somali waters (Musse and Tako, 1999). It has been reported that occasionally large amount of dead fish, sometimes stretching over 45 km, has been seen floating in near shore waters, killed by toxic chemicals disposed in Somali waters by foreign firms (Musse and Tako, 1999). Overall, the situation in Africa has been characterized by fierce competition between different fleets for increasingly declining fish stocks, high population growth rate (3-3.5%) and prevalence of free entry to fisheries (Hersoug, 1992; Alder and Sumaila, 2004). This section attempts to shed some light on the issue of fisheries expansion in Africa by analyzing the evolution and distribution fishing effort in the period 1970-2000. I l l 3.4.2. Relative status of countries in African region fisheries The relative status of countries was measured based of the total tonnage capacity of their fleets (Table 3.5). Table 3.5. Fishing capacity of the top ten countries in African region, based on fleet tonnage data for 1995. Rank Country Relative fleet capacity(% tonnage) 1 Morocco 29 2 South Africa 10 3 Ghana 10 4 Egypt 9 5 Namibia 9 6 Senegal 5 7 Nigeria 5 8 Mauritania 5 9 Algeria 3 10 Angola 3 11-41 Others (31) 14 Table 3.5 shows that Morocco tops the list of African fishing nations, accounting for about 29% of the total capacity of the continent. This is followed by South Africa and Ghana both with 10% capacity each. The other seven countries in the list each accounted for <10% of the continent's fishing capacity, while the remaining 31 countries shared only 14%. Morocco has been an important fishing country since the 1930s (Feidi, 1998). The fishing industry experienced tremendous growth during the 1980s (Anon, 2006). In the 1990s, the Moroccan government implemented a set of measures, including financial incentives and port improvement, to further expand the fishing industry (Feidi, 1998; Anon, 2006). As the result, the modern Moroccan fishing industry consists of large mechanized fleets, and its fisheries are largely export-oriented catching high-value fish for export markets (Feidi, 1998). 112 Similarly, South Africa developed diverse, privately owned modern commercial fleets for both pelagic and demersal resources since the 1940s (Scott, 1951). In the 1950s and 1960s, despite restrictions, the fishing industry had been operating under open access regime resulting in fleet expansion (Sauer et al., 2003). However, since the 1970s, South Africa implemented a series of effort control measures to allow for recovery of the heavily exploited commercial stocks (Plessis, 1971; Goodisan, 1992; Sauer et al., 2003). This led to a decline of fishing effort, as will be discussed in Section 3.4.4. Likewise, Ghana was one of those handfuls of West African countries which managed to operate a fleet of medium-sized trawlers and purse seiners, as described earlier. 3.4.3. Trends in size composition of African region fishing fleets As has been done for other regions, the fishing fleets were split into inshore (GRT <=149. and offshore (GRT >=T50) fleets in order to track changes in the composition of African fishing fleets. The results of the analyses are shown in Fig. 3.21. 140 -| ID 120 -* ssels 100 -size (ves 80 J • ssels 60 -> s 40 -nshc 20 -0 1970 1980 1990 2000 Y E A R Fig. 3.21. Temporal trends in the inshore and offshore fleets in African region. Fig. 3.21 shows that the offshore sector of African fisheries has been growing in the period between 1970 to 1990. This pattern is the direct result of fisheries industrialization policies implemented by several African countries after political independence in an attempt to jump-start their national economies via development of their natural resources (Lawson 113 and Kwei, 1974). However, after 1990 the offshore fleet sector showed a declining trend. Consequently the offshore fleet composition declined from 28% in 1970 to 24% in 2000. As described earlier, for the most part, the African fisheries industrialization efforts were unsuccessful for reasons ranging from simple lack of management experiences to inability of local industrial fleets to compete against foreign fleets in the face of a declining resource base. Therefore the declining trend in the offshore sector after 1990 can be attributed to a combination of poor financial performance and aging fleets, leading to declining of offshore fleet size. On the other hand, the inshore fleet sector has been growing since 1970. In most African countries the failures of the industrial fisheries and development of new government policies, promoting rural developments, led to a shift of attention by local governments and bilateral aid agencies to expansion of the inshore fleet sector (Troadec, 1983; Haakonsen, 1992; Jul-Larsen, 1992). The rapid increase in inshore fishing fleet shown in Fig. 3.21 is attributed to this shift in priority. 3.4.4. Evolution of fishing effort in African region fisheries The total fishing effort analyzed so far was converted to horsepower-days unit in order to evaluate overall effective fishing effort capacity of the region. 50 -, 45 •] LU 10 H 5 ^ 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 Year Fig . 3.22. Temporal evolution of total fishing effort in African fisheries. 114 Fig. 3.22 shows that African total fishing effort showed a steep increase since 1980. It grew from about 25 x 107 horsepower-days in 1980 to about 44 x 107 horsepower-days, representing about two-fold growth. To better explain the trend, the data plotted in Fig. 3.22 were spilt into sub-regions: Northern Africa, Western Africa, Southern Africa and Eastern Africa (Fig. 3. 23). 1970 1980 1990 2000 Year Fig. 3.23. Temporal evolution of total fishing effort in Northern (1), Western (2), Southern (3) and Eastern (4) sub-regions of Africa. 1. Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia. 2. Angola, Benin, Cameroon, Cape Verde, Congo Dem Rep, Congo Rep, Cote d'lvoire, Eq. Guinea, Gabon, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Mauritania, Nigeria, Sao Tome Prn, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Togo and St. Helena islands; 3. South Africa, Namibia and Mozambique; 4. Tanzania, Kenya, Somalia, Djibouti, Eritrea, Sudan, Madagascar, Comoros, Seychelles, Mauritius and Reunion Island. As can be seen from Fig. 3.23, total fishing effort in Northern and Western Africa showed tremendous increases since 1980. In these sub-regions, fishing is an important industry in both food supply and income generation, accounting for some two-thirds of animal protein consumed in countries like Ghana and Sierra Leone (Thorpe et al, 2004), while it is a major export product for countries, such as Morocco (Feidi, 1998). Hence, countries in these sub-regions heavily invested in fishing capacity developments (Tvedten 115 and Hersoug, 1992). As a result, these two sub-regions have been responsible for the overall increase of total fishing effort seen in the African continent as a whole. In the Southern sub-region, the fishing effort has been declining since 1980. This is mainly attributed to measures taken by South Africa and Namibia for restricting fishing effort expansion by introducing a series of effort controlling mechanisms, such as mandatory vessel licensing, catch quotas and area closures (Scott, 1951; Plessis, 1971; Goodisan, 1992; Sauer et al, 2003). As the result of such management measures, triggered by the diminished state of the resources, average annual landing in this sub-region has recently declined by about 41% as well (Alder and Sumaila, 2004). On the other hand, the fishing effort in the Eastern African sub-region did not show any significant change over the period considered. In this sub-region marine fisheries, though important locally in some countries such as Tanzania, Mozambique and Madagascar, are not important internationally (FAO, 1997). The coastal fishery yield along the entire western boundary of the Indian Ocean represents less than one percent of the global landings and has been stagnating since the 1990s (FAO, 1997). The stagnant trend shown in this region can be attributed to combination of resource limitation and reluctant consideration given to marine fisheries sector in the region (Tvedten and Hersoug, 1992; FAO, 1997). For the African continent as whole, the expansion of fishing effort has continued unabated for the period covered by this study. As a result, the stocks are overexploited, especially in the Western and Southern African sub-regions. The depletion was attributed to domestic fishing effort expansion and heavy exploitation by long distance fleets, as documented in several reports (Christensen et al, 2004; FAO, 1996a, FAO, 1996b, FAO, 1997; Koranteng and Pauly, 2004; Alder and Sumaila, 2004). For instance, joint pressure by several Ghanaian fleets have depleted long-lived species resulting in an outburst of short-lived, previously uncommon species, the exploitation of which contributed to overcapacity in Ghanaian fishing industry (Koranteng and Pauly, 2004). Indeed, the fish stocks in the West African sub-region have been reduced by an order of magnitude since the 1960s (Christensen et al, 2004). In almost all African sub-regions the situation for all commercially important fisheries is similar. The Eastern Central Atlantic, the Southeast Atlantic and in some section of western portion of the Indian Ocean (including the Red Sea), most stocks, with the 116 exception of some small pelagic species, are fully exploited and there are limited prospects for increasing catches from the marine environment (FAO, 1996a). In light of the chronic problem of lack of affordable employment opportunities and population migration to coastal cities in the region, the prospect for massive population movement to fisheries sector will likely continue to fuel fishing effort expansion and can potentially cause what Pauly (1997) calls 'Malthusian overfishing' in the region. 3.4.5. Distribution of fishing effort in African region fisheries 3.4.5.1. Groundfish fisheries Commonly exploited groundfish assemblage in African region include families; Sciaenidae, Lutjanidae, Sparidae, Cynoglossidae, Drepanidae, Polynemidae and Serranidae (Fager and Longhurst, 1968; Everett, 1976; Koranteng and Pauly, 2004). The results of the analyses of distribution of fishing effort targeting groundfish in African region are shown on decadal basis from 1970 to 2000 (Fig. 3.24). 117 1970 1980 1990 2000 Fig. 3.24. Predicted spatial distribution of port-based fishing effort targeting groundfish fisheries in African region. Note: most African oceanic islands did not own sizable domestic motorized fleet in the 1970s and 1980s, hence, were not shown in the map for those years. Light gray: 0.0-2.4 log hpdays.km"2; dark gray: 2.5-14.4 log hpdays.km" . Visual inspection of Fig . 3.24 shows that fishing effort spatial distribution is concentrated in the North, Northwest and Southern regions of Africa, fairly mimicking the relative importance of fisheries in different regions around the continent. In the Western and 118 Southern African sub-regions high fishing effort intensity is predicted around inshore areas of Morocco, Senegal, Mauritania, Angola, Namibia and South Africa (Fig, 3.24). The continental shelf in these sub-regions is rather narrow ranging from about 8 miles around Togo and Liberia, to 100 miles around the coasts of the two Guineas, with overall average shelf width of about 30 miles (Crutchfield and Lawson, 1974; Everett, 1976). The sub-regions are characterized by permanent or seasonal upwellings caused by the Canary, Equatorial and Benguela Currents, with high primary production and high fish production (Gulland, 1971). In view of high inshore primary productivity, the narrowness of the shelves and the large fishing effort deployed by most countries, the predicted high fishing effort in the inshore areas of these countries makes perfect sense. Inshore trawlers of the region are based in all ports along the coasts, particularly in Casablanca, Agadir, Nouadhibou, Dakar, Freetown, Monrovia, Abidjan, Tema, Lome, Cotonou, Lagos, Port Harcourt, Douala, Libreville, Pointe Noire and Matadi areas (Everett, 1976). Similarly, in the Southern sub-region the demersal fishing grounds are located around Southwestern Cape coast, Knysna and Stillbaai areas, Mossel Bay, Eastern Cape, around Port St. Francis, Jeffreys Bay, Port Elizabeth and off port Alfred (Sauer et al., 2003). Hence, the predicted high fishing effort concentration areas largely overlap with the groundfish fishing grounds of the region. Groundfish stocks along the Mauritania, Senegal, Angola, Namibia and South African coasts have been characterized as fully exploited or over-exploited (FAO, 1997). In the Gulf of Guinea, total demersal biomass decreased by around 50% between 1991 and 1994, while the decline of major species such as croakers (Micropogonias spp.,), threadfins (Polynemidae) and sicklefish (Drepane spp.), was higher than 50% (FAO, 1997). The decline in the biomass of groundfish was related to the recent increase in small-scale artisanal fisheries in most countries, and also to the increase of industrial fishing effort in some countries in the region (FAO, 1997; Koranteng and Pauly, 2004). Over time, the Northwest African sub-region has been subjected to depletion of coastal demersal stocks followed by the offshore stocks in a sequential fashion in a similar pattern as reported from other parts of the world (Pauly, 2004). In the Mediterranean and Red Sea, high fishing intensity is predicted in the inshore areas of Egypt and Algeria. The fishing grounds of Egyptian groundfish vessels are mainly located in the Mediterranean continental shelves off the Nile Delta, the Suez Canal and the 119 Red sea coast, while that of Algeria is concentrated on the narrow shelf on the Mediterranean coast, where the demersal stocks are heavily exploited (Anon, 1993 and Feidi, 1998). 3.4.5.2. Small pelagic fisheries Africa has important fisheries of small pelagic fish. The species contributing to the bulk of African small pelagic catches are sardines {Sardinella spp.), pilchards (Sardina spp.), herrings (Clupea spp.), anchovies (Engraulis spp.), mackerels and jack mackerels (Trachurus spp.) (Everett, 1976; Sauer et al., 2003). The results of the analyses of distribution of fishing effort targeting small pelagic fisheries in African region on decadal basis from 1970 to 2000 are shown in Fig. 3.25. 120 1980 Fig. 3.25. Predicted spatial distribution of African port-based fishing effort targeting small pelagic fish. Light gray: 0.0-2.0 log hpdays. km"2; dark gray: 2.1-11.0 log hpdays. km"2. As in groundfish fisheries, small pelagic fishing effort was concentrated in the North, Northwest and Southern sub-regions of Africa (Fig. 3.25). Small pelagic fleets along the Northwest African coasts are based in port cities of Nouadhibou, Dakar, Banjul, Abidjan, Tema and Pointe Noire, where they predominantly catch sardinellas (Everett, 1976). In the Southern sub-region, pelagic fishing effort is concentrated around Agulhas Bank (Sauer et 121 al., 2003). The predicted effort distribution roughly reflected this pattern of reported fishing effort concentration (Fig. 3.25). Overall, for both the groundfish and small pelagic fisheries, there has been modest offshore expansion since 1980 and 1990 along the coasts of some countries in the Northwest and Southern Africa. However, there was not much of an offshore expansion, despite large increases in the average size of African vessels (Fig. 2.3). This pattern resulted due to the model rules imposed on (sub) tropical regions to limit the offshore range of vessels and the fact that the bulk of African fleet is composed of small vessels, thus mimicking the effect of low fish abundance in the offshore waters in tropical waters (Longhurst and Pauly, 1987; Crutchfield and Lawson, 1974). The resulting crowding of fleets of various capacities in inshore waters is believed to be one of the factors fueling conflicts among different fleet sectors in tropical regions as discussed in previous sections. The impact of such intense fishing effort in African coastal waters is believed to have led to full exploitation of inshore small pelagic stocks, especially in the Northwest and Southern African sub-regions (FAO, 1997; Koranteng and Pauly, 2004). For Africa as a whole, the overall evaluation of the status of fisheries ranges from a relatively optimistic view, characterizing African fish stocks as 'moderately exploited' or 'slightly overexploited' (FAO, 1997) to a bleaker view, which characterizes West African fish stocks as 80% depleted, i.e., as much as the North Atlantic (Worldfish, 2006). 3.4.6. Conclusions With the exception of the Republic of South Africa and Namibia, African fisheries have been through two distinct expansion phases. The first phase encompasses the period from the 1950s to 1970s. During this period the newly independent African countries promoted the industrialization of their fisheries, following in the footsteps of developed Western countries. Except in a few cases, the attempts were largely unsuccessful for reasons ranging from lack of managerial skills to the competitive advantage of foreign fleets in the face of declining resources. The second phase of African fisheries expansion began in the early 1980s. Here, the attention was shifted to modernizing small-scale fisheries via the acquisition of modern fishing gears and motorization of canoes. To that end, numerous subsidized projects 122 involving low interest rate loans, infrastructure development, provision of fishing gears and fishers training programs were implemented. The outcome of this phase has been largely successful. Significant canoe motorization has been achieved and the share of small-scale sector in the total catches of the region grew markedly. As the result of fisheries expansion policies combined with natural increase in the fisher population and migration to fisheries from other economic sectors, the fishing effort of the region continued growing. This led to full exploitation of major fish stocks in the region and therefore, the fisheries of the region are increasingly characterized by conflicts between the artisanal and industrial fleets within generally narrow coastal shelves. 4. Global Summary: Spatio-temporal trends in global fishing effort In the previous sections, the evolution and spatial distribution of fishing effort were discussed for each region separately. In this final section, the contribution of each region to global fisheries is presented. Also, the regional data are pooled for model validation purposes and to analyze global trends in the evolution and distribution of fishing effort in the decades from 1970 to 2000. 4.1. Relative contribution of regions in global fisheries Driven by differences in development priorities and inherent variability in the financial/technical capacity, the countries in different regions of the world have developed their natural resources at different paces and scales. The history of global fisheries development generally reflects this regional disparity (see Section 1). To recap the main trends: in the Western developed region, fisheries expansion and industrialization began in the late 19 th century and the early 20 t h century (Thomson, 1979). During the first two decades after WW II, the fisheries quickly expanded, compromised the major part of their resource bases, and then began to look for untapped resources in other parts of the world (Silvestre and Pauly, 1997; Thorpe and Bennett, 2001; Kaczynski and Fluharty, 2002; Pauly et al, 2002; Pauly et al, 2005). The success and global expansion of Western industrial fisheries sent mixed messages to the remaining parts of the world. On the one hand, it served as a role model for other regions to follow. On the other hand, the appearance of Western fleets on the doorsteps 123 of developing countries ignited conflicts. As the result of these and other developments, fisheries expansion in the developing regions of the world took off after the fisheries of the West peaked in the 1970s. Consequently, various regions played differential roles in the global fisheries expansion at different times. It should also be noted that there is remarkable variability among countries within every region, owing to disparity in socio-economic, cultural and historic realities relevant to expansion of fisheries. The results of the analysis of the relative contribution of different regions defined earlier, i.e., the European-North American, Asia-Pacific, South American-Caribbean and African, to global fishing fleet capacity in the period between 1970 and 2000 are depicted in Fig. 4.1. Total 1990 Asia-Pacific S. America-Caribbean a ^Africa 2000 Year Fi g . 4.1. Regional contribution of the European-North America, Asia-Pacific, South America-Caribbean and the African regions to global fishing fleet capacity in the period between 1970 and 2000. Fig. 4.1 shows that the European-North American region has been the largest contributor to the fishing capacity of the world since 1970. The continued dominance of this region is the direct result of development of fishing capacity in the 1960s and 1970s. As has been described in Section 3.4, the countries of the EU13 group have attempted to downsize their capacities with limited success. With continued fishing capacity expansion, especially in the European non-EU countries, the dominance of this region has been maintained until 2000 (see Section 3.1.4 for details). Next is the Asia-Pacific region, which had an increasing contribution over the last three decades analyzed (Fig. 4.1). The status of the South 124 American-Caribbean and African regions did not show any significant changes over the three decades analyzed; despite significant fisheries expansion in both the South American-Caribbean and African regions (see Sections 3.3.4 and 3.4.4 respectively), they did not change their relative status on a global scale. In order to measure the status of each region on relative basis, the total tonnage data shown in Fig. 4.1 were converted into percentage share of the total world fleet tonnage capacity, so as to detect temporal changes in the capacities of regions on relative terms. The results of these analyses are shown in Fig. 4.2. 6 0 1 2 0 1 9 7 0 1 9 8 0 Europe-N. America S. America-Caribbean Africa 1 9 9 0 2 0 0 0 Year Fig. 4.2. Percentage contribution of the European-North America, Asia-Pacific, South America-Caribbean and the African regions to global fishing fleet capacity in the period between 1970 and 2000. As can be seen from Fig. 4.2, the relative contribution of European-North American region declined from 1970 to 1990, then increased. The decline in the period between 1970 and 1990 is associated with fishing effort decline in the EU13 countries, while the increase after 1990s is mainly linked to continued expansion of the fishing fleets of the non-EU countries (see Section 3.1.4 for details). However, for the whole period under consideration, the overall trend is one of decline, from about 59% in 1970 to 53% in 2000. In the Asia-Pacific region, the exact opposite occurred: an increasing trend from 1970 to 1990, and a decline in 2000. The increasing trend to 1990 is the result of the fisheries expansion that occurred in this region since 1960s, while the decline after 1990 is the result of fishing fleet size decline observed in most Asian countries with the exception of China 125 (Fig. 3.15). The overall status of this region showed a slight increase from about 33% in 1970 to 39% in 2000. The relative status of the South American-Caribbean and the African regions remained unchanged. Evaluating the status of regions by the tonnage of their fleets has a potential for concealing capacity growth in terms of the number of vessels in the regions' fishing fleets, as few big boats can significantly enhance the status of a region vis-a-vis another region with numerous smaller vessels. To account for this effect, the regions were compared in terms of the number of vessels in their fishing fleets (Fig. 4. 3). 1970 1980 1990 2000 Year Fig . 4.3. Regional contribution of the European-North America, Asia-Pacific, South America-Caribbean and the African regions to global fishing fleet capacity (# of vessels ) in the period between 1970 and 2000. As can be seen from Fig. 4.3, the dominant status shifted to Asia-Pacific region while the European-North American region accounted for very small share of global fleet capacity in terms of vessel number. This is because the Asia-Pacific region fishing fleets consisted of numerous small vessels, while that of the European-North American region consisted of larger vessels. The relative status of the South America-Caribbean and African regions remained unchanged. Overall, the motorized global fishing fleet analyzed in this study consisted of about 1.3 million vessels in 2000 (Fig. 4.3), matching an estimate for mid 1990s of 1.26 million vessels (Petursdottir, 2001). This figure represents about a third of the estimated total global 126 fishing fleet size (motorized plus unmotorized) of about 3.8 million vessels (Petursdottir, 2001). 4.2. Evolution of fishing effort exerted by global fisheries In this section, fishing effort data from different regions were pooled to assess the evolution of global fishing effort. On the other hand, as has been mentioned in Section 2, the fishing effort data used in this study were assembled without reference or use of catch information. This allowed for comparisons with the evolution of total global marine catches. The first comparison is shown in Fig. 4.4. 25 1980 1990 Y e a r 2000 20 o 15 10 1 5 Fig. 4.4. Temporal trends in total catch and total effort in global fisheries. The catch data are from the Sea Around Us Project database (Watson et al., 2004). I Fig. 4.4 shows that total fishing effort grew from about 10 x 109 horsepower-days in 1970 to about 20 x 109 horsepower-days in 2000, representing about 100% growth, while global marine catches (excluding large pelagic catches) grew only by about 52% over the same period (catch growth estimation is on based catch data from the Sea Around Us Project). Or put differently: in the three decades analyzed, global fishing effort grew by a factor of 2, while catches grew by a factor of only 0.5. The trend represented in Fig. 4.4 runs across the series of periods of fisheries expansion. The period up to the mid 1980s was marked by fishing capacity expansion worldwide (Garcia, 1992; Pauly et al., 2002). The expansion of fishing effort during this period resulted in a corresponding increase in total fish catches (Fig. 4.4, and Pauly et al, 127 2002), though with some years of low catches, due to early collapses, e.g., the Peruvian anchoveta (Muck, 1989; Watson and Pauly, 2001). However, since the late 1980s, global marine fish catches have been declining, and the severity of the decline has been masked by inflated catch reports from China (Watson and Pauly, 2001). Two important features of this comparison should be highlighted: • Growth in fishing effort, especially since the late 1980s did not result in proportional increase in catches, leading to overcapacity; • Global concerns about declining catches, overcapacity and sustainability, which surfaced from the mid 1980s on, did not translate into fishing effort reduction. The continuation of fishing effort expansion in the face of declining global catches, which led to overcapacity, has been attributed to three major reasons: (i) Open access to fish resources prevalent in most parts of the world; (ii) Expansion of fish trade/increasing fish price, and (iii) Fisheries subsidies (MacSween, 1983; Hanna et al, 2000; Pauly et al., 2002). In particular, fisheries subsidies are believed to have aggravated the problem of fishing effort expansion, by keeping unprofitable fishing fleets operational (Milazzo, 1998; Hanna et al., 2000; Pauly et al, 2002). 4.3. Impacts of fishing effort expansion on global fish resources To put in perspective the implications of the extensive fishing effort development and the declining total catches in Fig. 4.4, an index of stock abundance, the catch per unit of effort, CPUE = C/f (Gulland, 1983) is derived, where C = total catch and f = the corresponding effort. The common assumption is that CPUE is proportional to the average population abundance (N) according to a relationship, CPUE = gN (Gulland 1983; Hilborn and Walter, 1992), where q is the catchability coefficient. For this relationship to hold, q must be assumed constant over time. This assumption has repeatedly been questioned, as q varies depending notably on the fish finding technology and the rigging of the vessels (Alvarez, 1999), both of which, in most fleets, changed markedly during the period considered here. Fishing vessels search for concentrations of fish rather than fishing randomly in the distributional area of the target species (Hilborn and Walters, 1992; Walters and Martell, 2004). In such cases, q not only varies but also becomes a function of vessel's success in 128 finding fish concentrations. This implies that vessel's success is a function of onboard fish detection technology and skipper's experience. The latter is known as 'learning effect' (Pena-Torresa et al, 2004) and is not discussed further here. The applications of onboard technology are believed to have significantly boosted the average fishing power of fleets, i.e. the efficiency of vessels in catching fish has improved over time. Efficiency improvement due to application of technology (potential changes in q over time) can be accounted for by developing a 'technology coefficient' (Fitzpatrick, 1996; Garcia and Newton, 1997). As explained in Section 2.2.1, an annual rate of 4.4% increase in the efficiency of vessels was estimated using the comprehensive data in Fitzpatrick (1996). Thus, in order to assess the effective pressure fishing effort exerts on global fish populations, the original effort data were adjusted for technology increase. The resulting 'corrected effort', estimated by taking into consideration temporal changes in vessel efficiency, is believed to reflect the fishing mortality exerted on the fish stocks (Garcia and Newton, 1997). Then, the corrected effort was used in conjunction with the total catches to estimate 'corrected CPUE' . The results of the analyses are shown in Fig. 4.5a and b. 129 80 1970 1980 1990 Year Fig . 4.5. Temporal trends in uncorrected versus corrected effort (a) and uncorrected C P U E versus corrected C P U E (b). The catch data are from the Sea Around Us Project database (Watson et al, 2004). The effective (corrected) fishing effort increased from lOxlO 9 horsepower-days in 1970 to 76 x 109 horsepower-days in 2000, representing 630% increase; this growth can be compared to the increase in nominal effort, which was 'only' 100% (Fig. 4.5a). The corresponding corrected CPUE (calculated as a ratio of effective effort and total catch) decreased from 4x10" tonnes per horsepower-days in 1970 to 1x10" tonnes per horsepower-days in 2000, representing a decline of about 80%), while the uncorrected CPUE (calculated as a ratio of nominal effort to total catch) showed a decline of only about 25% (Fig. 4.5b). On the other hand, in the uncorrected CPUE trend, decline is undetectable until the mid 1980s, while it is clearly shown in the corrected CPUE trend since 1970. 130 This suggest that uncorrected fishing effort data, in which temporal changes in the efficiency of vessels are not accounted for, leads to serious overestimation of CPUE (by a factor of three in this case). This type of bias carries serious consequences in fisheries where uncorrected commercial CUPE data are used as an index of fish stock abundance. The collapse of the Norwegian spring spawning herring has been blamed on stock assessment errors resulted from uncorrected commercial CPUE data used as index of fish abundance (Ulltang, 1980). Similar error has been widely reported for the misleading stock assessments that led to the collapse of Northern cod stock off Newfoundland and Labrador (Rose and Kulka, 1999; Walters and Mcguire, 1996). Thus, a major problem with uncorrected commercial CPUE is that its trends may not reflect trends in fish abundance (Hilborn and Walter, 1992; Garcia and Newton, 1997; Salthau and Aanes, 2003). 4.4. Distribution of port-based global fishing effort So far emphasis was given to temporal trends in global fishing effort. In the forthcoming sections, our attention turns to the analysis of the spatial patterns of global fishing effort and the validation of the results. Fishing effort targeting small pelagic fish and that targeting groundfish are pooled in order to roughly identify global hotspots of marine fisheries (Fig. 4.6). 131 1970 Fig. 4.6. Predicted distribution of global fishing effort in the period between 1970 and 2000; light gray: 0.0-3.0 log hpdays.km"2; dark gray: 3.1-15.7 log hpdays.km"2. 132 In 1970 and 1980, heavily exploited fishing grounds were the North Sea, the Sea of Okhotsk, the Japan Sea, the Yellow Sea, the Northern section of the South China Sea and the coasts of India (Fig. 4.6). While, in the 1990 and 2000, the emergence of Southeast Asia as major a fishing ground (in the Gulf of Thailand and the Indonesian Sea among others), the inshore areas of North America and the Southwest Atlantic (the Patagonian shelf) is evident. After 1980, fishing effort concentration in the Sea of Okhotsk has been declining, owing to the decline of Russian fishing effort. Fishing grounds with least fishing concentration are located around the coasts of Australia, the east coast of Africa and several oceanic islands (Fig. 4.6). Note that the wider fishing effort distribution range around the coasts of Australia, relative to other countries on similar latitude, is the result of Australian fleets consisting of larger vessels relative to other countries of similar latitude, e. g., South Africa. The impacts of such substantial effort intensity on fish stocks of these hotspot grounds have been highlighted in the regional spatial analysis in previous section (see regional analyses in Sections 3.1.5, 3.2.5, 3.3.5 and 3.4.5). 4.5. Global validation of fishing effort distribution prediction Global scale validation of the results of the spatial fishing effort model was performed using an indirect technique involving fuel consumption distribution map, independently modeled by Tyedmers et al. (2005). The fuel consumption map was modeled based on data from over 250 fisheries from around the world, combined with spatially mapped catches, following Watson et al. (2004). The rationale for using a fuel consumption distribution map to validate fishing effort distribution map is that spatialized fuel consumption can be assumed to be roughly proportional to spatialized effort. The validation procedure involves: (1) visual comparison of fisheries fuel consumption spatial pattern in 2000 with fishing effort distribution pattern (Fig. 4.7) predicted by this model in the same year; and (2) regression and correlation analysis (Fig. 4.8). The data in spatial cells, in both the fuel and effort datasets, were aggregated in order to highlight similarity in the results of these two independent models in identifying global fishing hotspots. 133 Fig. 4.7. Comparison between predicted (a) global fishing effort distribution pattern; light gray: 0.0-3.0 log hpdays km"2, dark gray: 3.1-15.7 log hpdays km"2, and (b) the distribution of fuel consumption spatial pattern; yellow: 1.0-2.4 log liters.km"2; red: 2.5-7.6 log liters.km "2. A s can be seen from Fig . 4.7, the intensely fished grounds predicted by the effort model are roughly similar with grounds of high fuel consumption intensity as shown in fuel consumption intensity map, i . e, effort and fuel spatial intensities are roughly proportional. The regression and correlation analyses were based on over 16,000 data points (every second cell was used, as Excel can not plot all the data points in the series) as shown in Fig. 4.8. 134 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Effort (log hpdays k m ~2) Fig . 4.8. Spatial correlation between predicted fishing effort distribution and fuel consumption intensity distribution (n> 16,000). Fig. 4.8 shows that there is an overall positive relationship between the log predicted fishing effort distribution and the log global fuel consumption distribution, which validates the visual comparison of Fig. 4.7. However, the slope of this relationship (0.55) is less than the expected slope (1). This is probably due to the aggregate nature of Tyedmers et al. (2005) data, which do not distinguish the fuel expended to travel to and from a given cell. This distorts the effort-fuel consumption relationship when plotted using data from a mixture of near-shore and offshore areas. 4.6. Global port-based fleets fuel consumption rate A total of 37.356 billion liters of fuel was used annually within approximately 300 km range by global fisheries in 2000 (data adapted from Tyedmers et al., 2005). The total fishing effort exerted by global port-based fleets in the same period was 15.111 billion horsepower-days. [It should be noted here that the 300 km range used for total fuel consumption computation implies some spatial difference between the offshore limits of the fuel and effort data because the nominal range of fishing effort distribution was extended to 370 km (i.e. 200 miles). However, the range of fleets (defined by the mean GRT of boats in a fleet per year) was further limited here by limits due to small port size and ports in low latitudes along with the fact that the bulk of global port-based fleets are small daily boats (see Section 2.2.2.2). This implies that the effective range of effort distribution was, in most cases, less than the limit of countries EEZs. In this particular year, the maximum effort 135 distribution range for port-based fleets was 297 km. Thus, the implied range difference is not expected to affect total fuel consumption rate estimation in any significant way]. A fuel consumption rate of 2.47 liters per horsepower-day is .estimated. Assuming that in a typical fishing trip boat engine runs from 8 to 18 hours per fishing day (lower limit being for boats doing day trips, upper limit for boats taking longer trips and engines run longer). Under these two engine-time schedules, the fuel consumption rate will be anywhere between 0.1 to 0.3 liters per horsepower-hour. Fuel consumption rate for most automotives, including small aircrafts, range between 0.17 to 0.41 liters per horsepower-hour (Wake, 2005), indicating that the fuel consumption rate figure estimated for fishing boats in this study is reasonable. However, the fact that about 20% of global port-based motorized fleets were not covered by this study (see Section 2.1.1.2.2) and also Tyedmers et al, (2005) data include fuel consumption for distant water fleets fishing in the EEZs of various countries, which were not considered in this study, indicate that the actual fuel consumption rate for global port-based fleets is less than the estimated figure. Accounting for these distant water fleets, which contribute most of the catches taken in some regions (e. g., from West Africa) would significantly lower the estimate of fuel consumption presented here. The fuel consumption rate values computed here were applied to global fishing fleet data in order to estimate total fuel consumption of the world's fishing fleets over the last three decades (1970-2000). The engines of small inshore vessels (<200 hp) were assumed to run for about 8 hours in any typical fishing day and that of larger boats (>200 hp), capable of longer trips, were assumed to run for about 18 hours in any typical fishing day. The result of this analysis is shown in Fig. 4.9. 136 Fig. 4.9 shows that global fishing fleets consumed about 20 billion liters in 1970 and this consumption grew by about 85%, reaching 37 billion liters in 2000. This translates to 2.2% annual growth rate in fuel consumption. At this annual growth rate, the fuel consumption of world fisheries would double every 31-32 years. It should be noted here that the estimations are independent of absolute fuel consumption data. 4.7. Latitudinal shift in the concentration of global fishing effort The concentrations of fishing effort across latitudinal gradients were analyzed for the first year (1970) and the last year (2000) of the study period. This analysis helps to assess possible latitudinal shifts in the concentration of fishing effort along latitudinal gradients. Total fishing effort in bands of 10° latitude was plotted against global catches in similar band within 200 miles of coastline along with the total size of exploited shelf, shelf areas that are fished year-round, and unexploited shelf, shelf areas that are not exploited due to ice accumulations (Fig. 4.10a, b and c). 137 30 Latitude (N & S) Fig . 4.10. Comparison between total size of exploited shelf areas along latitudinal gradient (a) with catch and effort concentration patterns in corresponding latitudinal gradients in 1970 (b) and 2000 (c). Spatialized catch data are from the Sea Around Us Project database (Watson et al., 2004). 138 Fig. 4.10 shows that during the period between 1970 and 2000, catch and effort concentrations in the Northern hemisphere moved southward by about 20° (55°N to 35°N) and 10° (35° to 25°) respectively. The North-South shift can be explained by physical factor and by history of fisheries development. The relevant physical factor is latitudinal differences in the sizes of fishable (exploited) shelf areas. Fishable continental shelves, though they account for a relatively small fraction of ocean area, are responsible for 80-90% of global marine catches (Pauly and Christensen, 1995; Pauly, 1996). Therefore, differences in the relative sizes of fishable continental shelves are expected to play an important role in the prospect for fisheries expansion by countries. Thus, the high catch concentration appeared in the high latitude of the Northern hemisphere in 1970, despite corresponding lower effort concentration at this latitude band for the year (Fig. 4.10b), can be associated with the vast fishable shelf area in the high latitude of the Northern hemisphere around 55°N (50-60°N) (Fig. 4.10a). This band cut across traditionally rich fishing grounds, such as the North Sea, the Grand Banks of Northwest Atlantic, the Sea of Japan and the Gulf of Alaska. Thus, high catches are possible at relatively lower fishing effort concentration. In 2000, the center of catch and effort concentrations appeared to have moved further South to 35°N (30-35°N) and 25°N (20-30°N), respectively (Fig. 4.10c). This band also provides sufficient fishable shelf areas shown by the smaller peak around 25°N (Fig. 4.10a). The other explanatory factor for the southward shift is the history of fisheries development. Grounds in the Northern high latitudes were the first to become overexploited, particularly in the last three decades (Kaczynski and Fluharty, 2002; Pauly et al, 2002). The depletion led to series of effort reduction measures, by major fishing nations in the high latitudes of Northern hemisphere, involving cutbacks on their fishing capacities and exporting excess capacity to overseas (see Section 3.4.1). During the same period (1970-2000), countries in the lower latitudes of the Northern hemisphere (e.g., China and USA) were engaged in major expansion of their fisheries. Therefore, the southward shift of the centers of catch and effort concentrations can also be attributed to the overall North-South directional resource depletions and subsequent fisheries expansions in the countries further South. 139 4.8. Conclusions The total size of global motorized fishing fleet analyzed in this study is 1.3 million vessels. This figure represents about 80% of global motorized fleets as verified through comparison with independent data sources from selected countries in different regions (Table 2.1). On a relative basis, the European-North American region dominated the global fishing capacity in total tonnage, while, the Asia-Pacific region takes the lead in terms of total number of number vessels. The contributions of the South America-Caribbean and African regions have been small (<10%) and their status remained more or less constant over the period analyzed. The nominal size of global fishing effort increased 100%, while effective fishing effort grew by more than 600% in the decades analyzed (Fig. 4.5a). This led to decline of CPUE by 80% between 1970 and 2000 (Fig. 4.5b). Global fishing effort is now expended on the entire continental shelf of the world's ocean, with intensely fished areas clustered along the coasts of major fishing nations (Fig. 4.6). Other than offshore range expansion, this geographic analysis revealed that the centers of massive fish production and effort concentration have gradually moved southward (Fig. 4.10b and c). The fuel consumption rate of port-based global fishing effort range from 0.1 to 0.3 liters per horsepower-hour. The fuel consumption of global fishing effort grew by 85% between 1970 and 2000. Historically fishing effort management began with 'input control' scheme that has been directed at limiting the size of fishing effort. Later fishing effort management technique moved on to schemes based on 'output control' that involved application of total allowable catch and quota systems. Both techniques were ineffective (the former due to non-random behavior of fishers in deploying their gears vis-a-vis target distribution and the latter, due to high cost involved in providing reliable stock assessment (Walters and Martell, 2004)), leading to continuous growth of fishing effort worldwide. More recently, a variant of output control system known as 'individual transferable quota' (ITQ) was proposed and implemented in countries such as Iceland, Australia and several countries in Europe and North America. The ITQ system involves assigning exclusive individual rights to harvest specific portions of the overall quota (Grafton, 1996). Theoretically, the ITQ system can potentially curb the problem of effort expansion and overfishing as it removes fishers' incentive for competing to catch a bigger share of the total allowable quota (Memon and Cullen, 1992; Grafton, 1996). 140 However, ITQ are also plagued with problems ranging from high discarding rate to concerns regarding their potential for creating a corporate structure with serious implications on the survival of small-scale fisheries, leading to serious social consequences (Palsson and Helgason, 1995; Copes and Charles, 2004). Hence, the ITQ system has yet to have a wide global adoption. Owing to these concerns, there has been a renewed interest to switch back to the old input control schemes in conjunction with some new methods to limit fishing mortality, for instance, through marine protected areas (Pauly et al., 2000; Walters and Martell, 2004) or combination of both. Obviously, the effectiveness of fishing effort management involving spatial closure depends on the prediction of spatial distribution of fishing effort (Walters and Martell, 2004). In light of this renewed interest in spatial management of fishing effort, the prediction of spatial distribution of fishing effort plays a crucial role. This thesis is the first of its kind in providing quantitative analyses of global patterns in the growth and distribution of fishing effort, perhaps providing a model for regional and country-based analyses. 141 References Abu-Talib, A . and Alias, M . , 1997. Status of fisheries in Malaysia-An overview. In: Silvestre, G. and Pauly, D. 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Fisheries in China: Progress, problems, and prospects. Can. J. Fish. Sci. 54, pp. 224-238. 158 Appendix 1 Table A . l . Tonnage class categories adopted from the Sea Around Us Project. TC Tonnage (GRT) 1 0-24.9 2 25-49.9 3 50-149.9 4 150-499.9 5 500-999.9 6 1000-1999.9 Appendix 2 Table A . l . Horsepower class categories adopted from the Sea Around Us Project. Code Horsepower 1 1-30 2 31-100 3 101-200 4 201-500 5 >500 160 Appendix 3 Table A.3. Gear class categories adopted from the Sea Around Us Project Gear code Gear class description 10 Bottom Trawlers 15 Midwater trawlers 21 Mobile nets 31 Surrounding nets 41 Gil l nets and entangling nets 51 Hooks and lines 61 Traps and liftnets 71 Dredge 81 Grappling and Wounding gears 90 Other gears Appendix 4 Table A . 4 . Mean days fished per year by vessel class and regions, as used in this study. Vessel type Mean days fished per year Regions Pelagic trawlers 270 Liners 180 Seiners 148 Bottom trawlers 180 Africa Gi l l netters"1 150 Gil l netters 207 Dredge 180 Bottom trawlers 233 Traps 180 Pelagic trawlers 196 Liners 213 Asia-Pacific Seiners 181 Bottom trawlers 231 Pelagic trawlers 294 Mobile nets 161 Seiners 181 Dredge 200" Gi l l netters 150 Liners 185 Europe and North America 0 Traps 120 Gil l netters 163 Liners 163 Bottom trawlers 213 Traps 111 South America and Caribbean Seiners 209 m For some African countries actual recorded data was used. 11 Based on ICES data average. 0 These data were not applied to North American and European countries fishing in ICES areas. For these countries fishing days data were available from ICES, DF07NAFO sources. 162 

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