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Adult education content and processes in Hong Kong (1990-1997) Man, Yuen-Ying Christine 1990

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ADULT EDUCATION CONTENT AND PROCESSES IN HONG KONG (1990-1997) by YUEN YING CHRISTINE MAN B.S.Sc, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, 1983 Dip.Ad.Ed., The University of British Columbia, 1986 A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF ARTS in THE FACULTY OF GRADUATE STUDIES Department of Administrative, Adult and Higher Education We accept this thesis as conforming to the required standard THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA November 1990 ©Yuen Ying Christine Man, 1990 In presenting this thesis in partial fulfilment of the requirements for an advanced degree at the University of British Columbia, I agree that the Library shall make it freely available for reference and study. I further agree that permission for extensive copying of this thesis for scholarly purposes may be granted by the head of my department or by his or her representatives. It is understood that copying or publication of this thesis for financial gain shall not be allowed without my written permission. Department of At3ministrat;'-Ve r Adult & Higher Education The University of British Columbia Vancouver, Canada Date November 22, 1990. DE-6 (2/88) ii ABSTRACT Adult education is shaped by the socio-cultural and historical context in which it occurs. Hong Kong is confronting immense social change as it will cease to be a colony of the United Kingdom and become a Special Administrative Region of the People's Republic of China in 1997. The reversion of sovereignty to China in 1997 is already changing the political, social, and cultural context although the Sino-British Joint Declaration (initialled on September 26, 1984 and formally took, effect on May 27, 1985) stipulated that Hong Kong's existing capitalist system and life-style would remain unchanged for 50 years after 1997. However, by 1989, it was clear that what people were "thinking" or "believing" about the situation was having a more potent effect on Hong Kong than legal documents or slogans such as "one country, two systems." Thus, this study was largely couched within a phenomenological frame of reference. The situation of Hong Kong is unprecedented and people face uncertainty as they enter the run-up to 1997. The "city of jitters" is undergoing a process of decoloni zation on the one hand and integration with Mainland China on the other. Adult education helps people prepare for change, but at the same time, is shaped by people's ideas iii of what the present situation is and what the future will be like. The purposes of this study were: 1. To obtain estimates concerning the anticipated changes in the content and processes of adult/continuing education (ACE) in the run-up to 1997. 2. To establish the extent to which socio-demographic variables of respondents explained variance in estimates (concerning the anticipated changes in the content and processes of ACE). 3. To establish the extent to which the political orientations of respondents explained variance in estimates (concerning the anticipated changes in the content and processes of ACE). 4. To examine the relationships between respondents1 "emigration intentions" and their estimates (concerning the anticipated changes in the content and processes of ACE) . This was an ex post facto study in which 122 Hong Kong adult educators completed questionnaires which asked them to make estimates concerning the future content and processes of adult education. Following this, the researcher examined the extent to which the respondents' socio-demographic characteristics (and political orien tations) explained variance in estimates (concerning the iv content and processes of adult education). Respondents claimed that in the run-up to 1997, for people staying, interests in "Management," "China Stud ies" and "Business & Commerce" programs will increase strongly. They believed that people leaving Hong Kong temporarily or leaving permanently will be greatly inter ested in "Technical Training" programs but their interests in "Law," "China Studies" and "Social Sciences" will decrease. Respondents thought that in the run-up to 1997, the use of adult education methods and techniques will increase (generally and in the workplace). They claimed that there will a larger increase in the use of "Courses By Computer" in Hong Kong generally and in the workplace. Age and educational qualification of respondents were sig nificantly related to their estimates concerning the an ticipated changes in ACE. There was no significant association between respondents' political orientations and their estimates. Nor were their "emigration intentions" significantly related to estimates. It appears that, in general, the structional-functional ap proach to adult education will remain. V TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT ii TABLE OF CONTENTS V LIST OF TABLES viii LIST OF FIGURES X ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS xi CHAPTER I: HISTORICAL ROOTS OF EDUCATION IN HONG KONG 1 Founding of the Colony 1 The British Administration Established 3 British Education for Chinese 10 Defining Adult Education 17 Purposes of the StudyCHAPTER II: CONTEMPORARY ADULT EDUCATION 21 Philosophical Background and Value Systems.. 21 Confucianism, Dr Sun Yat-sen and the Chinese Order 2Social and Educational Change in Hong Kong 28 Agencies and Programs 34 ProfessionalizationCHAPTER III: THE SINO-BRITISH JOINT DECLARATION 44 Background 4Political Analysis of the Declaration 48 Historical Meanings to Hong Kong 52 Uniqueness of the Situation 54 CHAPTER IV: REACTIONS OF THE COLONY 59 Socio-political Echoes 5Repercussions in Education 68 vi CHAPTER V: SCENARIOS FOR THE FUTURE 72 The"Continuing Prosperity" Scenario 73 The "Wait and See" Scenario 74 The "It's All Over" Scenario 5 CHAPTER VI: INSTRUMENT DEVELOPMENT 77 Item Construction 7Conceptual Bases for Socio-demographic Questions 81 Languages and Forms 5 Pilot Study. 86 CHAPTER VII: METHOD 9 PopulationMailing of Questionnaires 90 Data Processing and Analysis 91 CHAPTER VIII: RESULTS 96 Effect of History  6 Reliability , 98 Reliability Results 99 Response Rate 101 Characteristics of Respondents 10Men's and Women's Estimates and Their Political Orientations 103 Purpose One 108 Purpose Two 11Purpose ThreeRespondents' Political Orientations and Their Views Concerning the Purposes of Adult Education 121 Purpose Four 122 Respondents' Intentions and Their Estimates Concerning Others' Intentions 125 Respondents' Intentions and Involvement in China Projects 127 June 4 Incident and Respondents' Estimates 128 vii CHAPTER IX: SUMMARY, CONCLUSIONS, DISCUSSION 130 Summary 131 Conclusions... 134 Discussion 140 REFERENCES 15APPRENDIX A: Questionnaires Administered During Study of Hong Kong Adult Education Content and Processes. . 155 APPENDIX B: Newspaper Coverage of May 28, 1989 —People Marched in Hong Kong for Democracy in China 243 APPENDIX C: Newspaper Front Page of June 4, 1989 —Tiananmen Square Incident 244 APPENDIX D: Newspaper Front Page of June 5, 1989 —Mass Rally and General Strike Called For in Hong Kong. 245 APPENDIX E: Newspaper Front Page of June 6, 1989 —Stock Market Plunged and Chinese Banks in Hong Kong Made Run On 246 viii LIST OF TABLES Table 1: The 45 subject items in Part I of the questionnaire 78 Table 2: Adult education Methods and Techniques 80 Table 3: Dimensions shaping the socio-demographic profile of respondents 82 Table 4: List of questions for examining the political orientations of respondents.... 83 Table 5: The four forms of questionnaires in two sets that vary by item order and language. 86 Table 6: Socio-demographic characteristics of respondents 102 Table 7: Men and women adult educators' estimates concerning changes in adult/continuing education (ACE) and their political orientations 104 Table 8: Respondents* estimates concerning changes in ACE, their political orientations and ranking of purposes of adult education 110 Table 9: Intercorrelations between respondents' socio-demographic characteristics, their leaving or staying estimates and estimates concerning changes in ACE 115 Table 10: Intercorrelations between respondents' political orientations, their emigration intentions and estimates concerning changes in ACE 120 ix Table 11: Intercorrelations between respondents' ranking of purposes of adult education and their political orientations 121 Table 12: Respondents' intentions concerning leaving or staying in Hong Kong and their estimates concerning other residents' intentions 125 Table 13: Respondents• intentions concerning leaving or staying in Hong Kong and the extent of their involvement in China projects 127 Table 14: Respondents' estimates concerning other residents' intentions in the run-up to 1997 and the date they returned questionnaires 128 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1. Schematic portrayal of main elements in a study of adult/continuing education (ACE) in Hong Kong (1990-1997) 19 Figure 2. Ways of conceptualizing the "state" and "society" 25 Figure 3. Paulston's model of conceptualizing social and educational change 29 Figure 4. Respondents' estimates concerning the anticipated changes in the content and processes of ACE (1990-1997) 109 Figure 5. Respondents' socio-demographic characteristics and their estimates concerning the anticipated changes in ACE (1990-1997) 114 Figure 6. Respondents' political orientations and their estimates concerning the anticipated changes in ACE (1990-1997) 119 Figure 7. Respondents' political orientations and their views concerning the purposes of adult education 123 Figure 8. Respondents' emigration intentions and their estimates concerning the anticipated changes in ACE (1990-1997) 124 Figure 9. Respondents' emigration intentions and their estimates concerning others' intentions 126 xi ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I wish to express my deep appreciation to Professor Roger Boshier, my advisor, for his vigorous as well as rigorous guidance. I am also grateful to Dr Tom Sork, Dr Dan Pratt and Dr John Collins for their advice and support. Special thanks go to all friends who gave me a hand in the survey, especially Miss Christine Yeung, Mr Desmond Lee, Mr Charles Wong, Miss N.P. Lee, Mrs Miranda Wong, Dr Therese Shak, Mr Augustine Chong and Mr Yat-bong Ma. I also acknowledge Professor Gordon Selman, who is always a teacher and a friend of mine. 1 CHAPTER I HISTORICAL ROOTS OP EDUCATION IN HONG KONG Founding of the Colony Hong Kong, with a population of 5,658,800 in a land area of only 1,071 square kilometres (Hong Kong Annual Report, 1989, p. 329), was a tiny fishing village at the south-eastern end of imperial China in the nineteenth century. Before the British occupation in 1841, Hong Kong was under the jurisdiction of the Qing Dynasty, an Empire established by the Manchu in the 16th century. The Manchu government was seen as an oppressor of the Han people, the largest ethnic group in China. Throughout the tricentennial reign of the Manchus, there had been numerous rebellions waged by the Hans. The Qing Empire began to decline in mid-19th century as a result of severe corruption in the government. Except for Chinese merchants who started trade with the West from Canton and other ports of southern China in the 14th century (Cheng, 1986), China had long been isolated from the outside world. Its technology was still underdeveloped compared to its counterparts in the West. At that time, Britain had been a trading partner of China, and "China trade was 2 part of the expansion of the British economy overseas" (Cheng, 1986, p. 72). As Britain had imported opium from India to China for exchange of Chinese tea, silk and other goods, China had suffered a loss of finances. Many Chinese people smoked opium, and their health deteriorated. Tension grew as China decided to stop the opium trade but Britain wished to continue. There was no other way to settle the dispute but through a war. The two empires fought against each other in 1840. This is known as the Opium War. China, with its backward weaponry and corrupt government officials, lost the war, and was forced to sign the "unequal" Treaty of Nanking with Britain in 1842. The treaty was regarded as "unequal" by Chinese historians because they claimed it was enforced upon the weak, powerless empire for the purpose of snatching territory and other commercial benefits from China. Under that treaty, Hong Kong Island was ceded in perpetuity to Britain. It seemed that the aim of the British occupation of Hong Kong was for commercial purposes—to promote trade with China (Cheng, 1986). Two subsequent wars between China and Britain had resulted in two more "unequal" treaties in which a larger portion of territory had been added to expand the British colony. These two treaties were: "The 3 Convention of Peking in 1860 under which the southern part of the Kowloon peninsula and Stonecutters Island were ceded in perpetuity; the Convention of 1898 under which the New Territories (comprising 92 per cent of the total land area of the territory) were leased to Britain for 99 years from 1 July 1898" (A Draft Agreement between the Government of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the Government of the People's Republic of China on the Future of Hong Kong, 1984, p.l). The British Administration Established The history of Hong Kong as a British colony began in 1843 when Sir Henry Pbttinger was appointed the first Governor. The administration was built on a general government structure commonly found in all British colonies. The Queen appoints a Governor to act as her representative in Hong Kong. The Governor has supreme authority. He heads the administration while being the titular Commander-in-Chief of the British Forces stationed in Hong Kong. The Letters Patent and the Royal Instructions make up the constitution of Hong Kong. These two documents established "separation of powers" in forming the government machinery of Hong Kong. The Letters Patent defined the role and powers of the Governor and 4 outlined the structure of the Executive and Legislative Councils. Besides the powers in legislation, the Governor may appoint judges to the Supreme and District Courts. The Royal Instructions gave details of the membership and procedures of the two Councils, and the process of legislation. "The Standing Orders of the Legislative Council, made under the authority of Royal Instruction XXIII, provide how Bills are to be passed" (Hong Kong Annual Report, 1989, p. 24). The Executive Council is the public policy-making body in Hong Kong with the Governor as its president. As stipulated in the Royal Instructions, the Governor should consult the council, but is allowed to disregard the Council's advice. In that case, the Governor has the power to make final decisions on policies. But in almost all situations, "The Governor-in-Council—the Governor acting in consultation with the Executive Council—is Hong Kong's central and most important executive authority" (Hong Kong Annual Report, 1989, p. 25) . With the Governor's presidency, the Legislative Council functions as the law-making body in Hong Kong. After getting the Governor's assent, a bill passed in this legislature becomes an ordinance. Although the Queen may disallow an ordinance, it seems that Hong 5 Kong, in most cases, has autonomy in legislation (Hong Kong Annual Report, 1989). When the British established their administration in 1843, Hong Kong was still a small village inhabited by farmers, fishermen and their families. The population in 1841 was only 5,000 (Harris, 1988, p. 3). At that time, the British rulers had to face a traditional Chinese community in a territory divided from the Qing Empire. This Chinese community inherited the traditions of allegiance to the Emperor, his laws, and the royal bureaucracy. Unlike its Western counterpart which upholds individualism, Chinese culture, under the time-honoured influence of Confucian teachings, emphasizes family ties in uniting individuals, and legitimizes the paternalistic rule of the Emperor. Chinese society in imperial times was ranked according to a hierarchy of classes of businessmen, craftsmen, farmers, and intellectuals. Intellectuals were at the apex of the hierarchy because they might become government officials after passing all successive public examinations at the town, county, province, and the Capital (presided over by the Emperor). Therefore, intellectuals belonged to the elite class of traditional Chinese society and were generally respected by common people. Good education 6 (mainly a tutor-student form of study on Confucian writings and other classics) might lead to promising prospects in the ruling class through a comprehensive national examination system. In sum, traditional Chinese people are subjects of an Emperor, subordinates of a centralized bureaucracy, and members of a family clan. A discernible difference with Western democracies is that the concept of "loyal opposition" does not exist in the Chinese mind (Harris, 1988). The British governed Hong Kong by replacing an imperial Chinese government with a colonial bureaucracy. Harris (1988) pointed out that "the descending concept of political power has long been characteristic of Chinese political thinking" (p. 32). Government officials were appointed "from above," and people in general should observe the rules and regulations set by the officials. The theory of "popular control" (p. 31) did not apply to the Chinese situation. Harris described Hong Kong as an "administrative state," in which "the ancient traditional Chinese bureaucracy merged with the British colonial bureaucracy" (pp. 5-6). There has been no political party, no direct elections of members to the Executive and Legislative Councils, but this adminis trative state is stable largely because of "its effective 7 legitimacy both to the local population and to China" (p.. 6) . As it was a colonial government, few Chinese had access to the policy-making process at the beginning of the British administration. King (1984) claimed that the British ruling group did not encourage Chinese participation in the early years of the colony. Both the Executive and Legislative Councils were assembled in 1844, but it was not until 1880 that the Legislative Council had the first Chinese member, and not until 1926 that the Executive Council had one. After World War II, Chinese participation in the two Councils began to increase steadily. King also pointed out that the traditional Chinese Confucian political culture "is more parochial-subject than participant in nature," and "the ordinary people lack an active self-orientation towards politics in Hong Kong" (p. 133). This forms part of the reason for the phenomenon of political apathy of Chinese people in Hong Kong. Political Orientations The concepts of "parochial-subject" and "partici pant" political cultures come from the study of Almond and Verba (1963). In their book, The Civic Culture; Political  Attitudes and Democracy in Five Nations, they stated that the term political culture "refers to the 8 specifically political orientations—attitudes toward the political system and its various parts, and attitudes toward the role of the self in the system...It is a set of orientations toward a special set of social objects and processes" (p. 13) . They employed the concept of culture in one of its many meanings: "psychological  orientation toward social objects" (Almond & Verba, 1963, p. 14) . To them, the political culture of a society refers to "the political system as internalized in the cogni tions, feelings, and evaluations of its population" (Almond & Verba, 1963, p. 14). Orientation refers to: the internalized aspects of objects and relationships. It includes (1) 'cognitive orien tation, * that is, knowledge of and belief about the political system, its roles and the incumbents of these roles, its inputs, and its outputs (2)'affective orientation,• or feel ings about the political system, its roles, personnel, and performance, and (3)'evalu-ational orientation,' the judgments and opin ions about political objects that typically involve the combination of value standards and criteria with information and feelings. (Almond & Verba, 1963, p. 15) The Parochial-Subject Political Culture is defined as: a type of political culture in which a substantial portion of the population has rejected the exclusive claims of diffuse tribal, village, or feudal authority and has developed allegiance toward a more complex 9 political system with specialized central governmental structures. This is the classic case of kingdom building out of relatively undifferentiated units. (Almond & Verba, 1963, p. 23) The Participant Political Culture refers to one: in which the members of the society tend to be explicitly oriented to the system as a whole and to both the political and administrative structures and processes...Individual members of the participant polity may be favorably or unfavorably oriented to the various classes of political objects. They tend to be oriented toward an "activist" role of the self in the polity, though their feelings and evaluations of such a role may vary from acceptance to rejection. (Almond & Verba, 1963, p. 19) The colonial bureaucracy has been able to capture the allegiance of the Chinese community in Hong Kong. The Chinese community is apathetic to politics in general. King (1984) argued that the primary concern of the government is to achieve a maximum level of political stability in order to foster economic growth. The method to achieve that goal is "the 1administerization1 of politics; it is the antithesis to politicization" (p. 133). He ascribed Hong Kong's political stability in the last hundred years to the "administrative absorption" of politics. This is a process through which the British governing elite co-opt or assimilate the non-British socio-economic 10 elite into the political-administrative decision-making bodies,thus attaining an elite integration on the one hand and a legitimacy of political authority on the other. (King, 1984, p. 144) In sum, the British administration has been able to maintain political stability in Hong Kong through a colonial bureaucracy headed by a group of elite for more than 140 years. British Education for Chinese In an attempt to achieve political stability and economic prosperity in Hong Kong, the administration had to devise a formal education system for the Chinese community. The British model of primary and secondary education had been imported to Hong Kong, and the Board of Education, which advises the government on planning and formulating education policy, was formed in 1920 (Hong Kong Annual Report, 1989, Chap. 9). In the early 20th century, there was only one university in Hong Kong—The University of Hong Kong. It was established in 1911, and "gave a British-style education—a significant factor in a British 'colony'" (Harris, 1988, p. 59) . About 50 years later, The Chinese University of Hong Kong,' in an American style, was inaugurated in 1963 as a federal university with three constituent colleges: New Asia College, Chung Chi College and United College. The Shaw College was added 11 to the university in 1988 as the fourth college. The university, as a self-governing corporation, draws its income mainly from government grants (Hong Kong Annual Report, 1989, Chap. 9). Besides government provision, there are other primary and secondary schools receiving financial assistance from the government under the codes of aid. There are also providers in the private sector. The six-year primary education has been free of charge in all government schools and in nearly all aided schools since September, 1971 (Hong Kong Annual Report, 1989, p. 117). There are four main types of secondary schools in Hong Kong: Anglo-Chinese Grammar Schools offer a five-year secondary course in a broad range of academic and cultural subjects leading to the Hong Kong Certificate of Education Examination (HKCEE). The medium of instruction is mainly English. Some of the Schools provide students with satisfactory results in the HKCEE with a two-year sixth-form course of matriculation leading to the Hong Kong Advanced Level Examination which secures admission to the University of Hong Kong and other teritary level courses. Others offer a one-year sixth-form course to students who wish to sit for the Hong Kong Higher Level Examination to attain admission to 12 the Chinese University of Hong Kong. Chinese Middle Schools also offer a five-year secondary course. But Chinese is the prime medium of instruction, and English is secondary. Most of them also offer a one-year Middle Six course of matriculation leading to the Hong Kong Higher Level Examination. Secondary Technical Schools provide a five-year secondary course leading to the HKCEE with an emphasis on technical and commerical subjects. Graduates with good results in the HKCEE may continue their studies in Form Six or in technical institutes. Prevocational schools provide students with a general education and introduce them to technical skills for future vocational training. Forty percent of the curriculum in Secondary One to Three are technical subjects. In Secondary Four and Five, about 30 per cent of the curriculum involves technical studies. After completing Secondary Three, students may join approved craft apprenticeship schemes with associated part-time day-release courses at technical institutes. Institutes will give credit for technical subjects completed at school. Moreover, students can seek direct entry into the second year of an approved craft apprenticeship (Hong Kong Annual Report, 1989, Chap. 9). 13 Education Commission In 1984, an Education Commission was appointed by the government to study the overall development of the educational system in Hong Kong. The Commission issued its Report No. 1 in 1984, No. 2 in 1986 and No. 3 in 1988. Government provision in tertiary education includes three Universities (the third one called The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology), two Polytechnics, technical institutes, three Colleges of Education and one Technical Teacher's College which offers training programs of non-graduate teachers for primary and secondary schools. The third university, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, was established in April, 1988. It will have its first student intake in October, 1991. It is a university which places heavy emphasis on science and technology, as its name suggests. While Hong Kong is moving into the 90's, its population needs greater provision of university education to cope with the rapidly changing environment. Open Education The Open Learning Institute of Hong Kong (OLI) admitted its first round of students in August, 1989. The concept of "open education," as defined in the 14 Education - Commission Report No. 1 (1984), is "non-age specific, covering basic literacy to tertiary level studies" and its aims are manifold and include remedial learning, providing second chance opportunities for obtaining qualifications, updating and keeping abreast of developments in fields where knowledge is expanding rapidly, and fulfilling individual personal development needs (p. 71). But the idea of setting up an open university modelled on UK Open University was rejected by the Education Commission in its Report No. 1 whereas it emphasized the importance of providing open education in Hong Kong. In its Report No. 2 (1986), the Education Commission explained why a UK-styled Open University was not suitable for Hong Kong. Firstly, Hong Kong would have to bear a great financial cost to run an open university. Secondly, it lacks academic and technical expertise, and bilingual teaching materials to cater for local needs. Thirdly, there is a shortage of appropriate environments for home study. Lastly, a network of study centres would be required if an open university is to be established. Thus the Report recommended that a consortium model of open education be established to provide programs at the secondary and post-secondary levels. In January 1988, the 15 government appointed a Planning Committee to prepare for the establishment of OLI. This degree-awarding institution, OLI, will offer a second chance for those who have been unable to go on to further education after leaving school, as well as opportunities for workers and managers to update their qualifications and skills and for personal development (Hong Kong Annual Report, 1989, p. 131) . Entry for the OLI is open to all adults who must be aged 18 years or over. The OLI provides programs at the tertiary level through distance education means. As the language used in instruction and learning materials is English, students are expected to have language proficiency. The concept of open learning is new in Hong Kong. Success in an open learning program requires persistence. Completing a degree program at OLI will take six years. But many people are in need of a second chance for higher education. In August, 1989, the Institute primarily used a "first-come-first-serve" criterion to admit the first round of students. But there were good responses from the community. About 70,000 application forms had been sent out and the Institute decided to use lots (drawn by computers) to allocate places for applicants. The first student intake OLI could accept was less than 4, 000. But the Institute planned to increase 16 the intake every year while, at the same time, strength ening the teaching capacity. Post-secondary Colleges In the public sector, the Baptist College was founded in 1956 and offers degree courses in Arts & Humanities, Sciences, Social Sciences and Business Administration. It also provides diploma courses in other academic disciplines. It is an autonomous institution but fully funded by the government. There are two government-approved post-secondary colleges registered under the Post Secondary Colleges Ordinance: Hong Kong Shue Yan College and Lingnan College. Registered in 1976, the Hong Kong Shue Yan College offers a four-year diploma program without government financial assistance. Lingnan College was registered in 1978 and receives government financial assistance in running its two-year sixth-form courses and the two-year post-sixth-form higher diploma course. Graduates of the higher diploma course may enter the fifth year course leading to an honours diploma. But the fifth year students do not get financial assistance from the government (Hong Kong Annual Report, 1989, Chap. 9) . Other post-secondary colleges are operating in the private sector. Although there are a number of higher education 17 institutions catering to the learning needs of the population, competition is keen at the post-secondary and, university levels of study. Defining Adult Education The term adult education has been variously defined. Darkenwald and Merriam provided this rather inclusive definition: Adult education is a process whereby persons whose major social roles are characteristic of adult status undertake systematic and sustained learning activities for the purpose of bringing about changes in knowledge, attitudes, values, or skills (1982, p. 9). In this study, adult education in Hong Kong refers to all learning activities organized outside the formal education system for men and women who have responsibilities at home or at work. Most adult education activities occur in institutions which provide programs for people who have completed formal education. This is what Darkenwald and Merriam (1982) refer to as continuing education (p. 12) . In Hong Kong, adult education means continuing education as well. Purposes of the Study In 1997 a new historical phase will begin in Hong Kong. Since the signing of the Sino-British Joint Dec laration, there have been profound changes in the socio political context. The situation of Hong Kong is un-18 precedented. People are facing great uncertainties in the run-up to 1997 and adult education will undoubtedly be influenced by what people think about it. There were four purposes of the study: 1. To obtain estimates concerning the anticipated changes in the content and processes of adult/continuing education in the run-up to 1997. 2. To establish the extent to which the socio-demographic characteristics of respondents explained variance in es timates (concerning the anticipated changes in the content and processes of adult/continuing education). 3. To establish the extent to which political orientations of respondents explained variance in estimates (concern ing the anticipated changes in the content and processes of adult/continuing education). 4. To examine the relationships between the respondents' "emigration intentions" and their estimates (concerning the anticipated changes in the content and processes of adult/continuing education). This report deals with the history of "1997" and describes how a survey was conducted to examine adult educators1 estimates concerning possible changes in the content and processes of adult/continuing education in Hong Kong. Figure 1 shows the independent and dependent variables employed in the study. 19 B INDEPENDENT VARIABLES DEPENDENT VARIABLES I Dimension 1 Dimension 2 Respondents Socio-demographic Characteristics * Sex *Age *Professional concern in ACE *Role in ACE *Educational qualifications "Views concerning purposes of Ad Ed Political Orientations *Affective * Cognitive •Evaluative Emigration intentions •Staying in HK •Leaving HK temporarily •Leaving HK permanently Emigration intentions of HK population •Staying inHK •Leaving HK temporarily •Leaving HK permanently Contents of ACE Processes of ACE •Methods •Techniques Figure 1, Schematic portrayal of main elements in a study of adult /continuing education (ACE) in Hong Kong (1990-1997). 20 There were three sets of independent variables, each related to the four purposes of the study. They concerned the socio-demographic characteristics of respondents, their political orientations and their "emigration intentions." There were two main dependent variables. The first was respondents' estimates concerning the future content of adult/continuing education and the second concerned the future processes of adult/continuing education. However it is important to note that this dimension (2, Figure 1) of the dependent variable was always made with reference to the "emigration intentions" of three categories of people (staying, leaving HK temporarily, leaving HK per manently) . Thus the main dependent variables involved adult education content and processes deemed to be of interest to three kinds of people—those staying, those leaving HK temporarily and those leaving permanently. 21 CHAPTER II CONTEMPORARY ADULT EDUCATION Philosophical Background and Value Systems Adult education is part of the total educational enterprise but has its own purpose and philosophy. There are two general arguments in the philosophy of education. One is that education develops a certain kind of person to fit into the society in which he or she lives. The other posits that education enables people to change society. These two arguments have become the equilibrium and conflict paradigms in the sociology of education. Based upon these two paradigms, conceptual frameworks have been developed for studying education and social change (Paulston, 1977; La Belle, 1986). Confucianism, Dr Sun Yat-sen and the Chinese Order Before any social change theory is used to analyze the educational context in Hong Kong, a study of its cultural and historical background is necessary. The Chinese people in Hong Kong have inherited Confucian values. Confucianism has dominated Chinese ideology for more than 2,000 years. It contains a set of moral values which form the basis of a socio-political structure. Moral values are used to govern the whole social and political order. Each individual has his 22 or her moral obligations. A son should obey his father. A subject should be loyal to the ruler. The ideal Confucian man possesses certain moral qualities. He should discipline himself before keeping his family well. Then, he can rule his country in a proper way and finally achieve worldly peace. The ultimate aim of Confucianism is to develop good rulers and attain Great Harmony (a perfect society). Morality is indispensable to a good ruler. An ideal or perfect society depends upon a good ruler too. This expectation resembles the concept of "philosopher kings" in Plato's Republic. But, philosopher kings should have more wisdom than morality. The rule of man is emphasized in the Confucian socio political order. The Confucian society is founded on moral values. Each individual has filial and fraternal affection. Allegiance to the ruler is an indispensable obligation. That obligation had justified absolute monarchism in China for more than 2, 000 years. The concept of democracy did not emerge until the late 19th century when Western liberal democratic thoughts came to China together with imperialist gunfire. Absolute monarchism was ended with the 1911 Revolution, led by Dr Sun Yat-sen, the founding father of the Republic of China, and the republicans, in which the Manchu Dynasty was overthrown by the 23 Han nationalists. The history of modern China thus began in 1911. China had preserved absolute monarchism for a longer period than its Western counterparts did. Western democracies are derived from the social contract theory which appeared in the 17th century. One notable proposition in the social contract theory is that there is a clear separation of concepts between "society" and "state." Men are born and then live together in "society" which Hobbes and Locke referred to as "state of nature." The Hobbesian (1968) state of nature is quite miserable as described in his Leviathan. Men are helpless, desperate, and fight with each other. But Locke argued that all men are free, equal, and born with natural rights in the state of nature. However, one may violate others1 natural rights while in pursuit of his or her own interests. Therefore, a ruler, be it a king or in Hobbesian terms, a Sovereign, is needed to protect the natural rights of people. A social contract exists between the ruler and the ruled. The common people surrender part of their natural rights to the ruler and his or her government who should protect their lives and property by law enforcement. If the ruler fails to protect the people's natural rights, he or she will be ousted by the people. This forms the 24 concept of "state." The contributions of social contract theory to western democracy are its emphases on people's natural rights, the function of government, the rule of law, and the consent of the majority. There is no clear separation of "society" and "state" in Confucian socio-political structure. The well-being of a state is dependent upon a good ruler who governs with divine rights. He rules like a father in a family and must be self-disciplined. The whole socio political order is maintained by moral values. If the ruler is immoral, there is no control upon him. However, an ideal Confucian society is a hierarchical one. Each individual plays his or her proper role and maintains a harmonious relation with others. A vertical integration of familial and social relations is achieved when a son obeys his father and the ruled submit to the ruler. This is why a highly centralized bureaucracy had been the dominating political system in imperial China. However, the Confucian society does not encourage "horizontal integration," i.e. developing a strong sense of community among people. It is not like its Western counterparts which treat all men as equal; each identifying oneself as part of a community and contributing to collective efforts. When horizontal integration is lacking, the Chinese people 25 hardly achieve solidarity in challenging and bargaining with the ruling authority. When one attempts to question the authority, he or she will be doomed as rebellious. The Confucian political culture can be regarded as a parochial-subject one (see Chap. I, p. 8) . The concept of "Loyal opposition" does not exist in the Chinese mind. Representative democracy is popular in pluralistic societies, but not in China. Figure 2 shows how the "state" and "society" are conceptualized in Social Contract theory and Confucianism. Social contract theory Confucian socio-political order State Ruler/government Society People retain part of their natural rights State & Society I Great Harmony ! Worldly peace /t Good government r Well-kept families Self-disciplined individuals Figure 2. Ways of conceptualizing the "state" and "society" 26 In the social contract theory, people have already formed a society before they surrender part of their natural rights to the ruler or government. They retain some natural rights themselves. On the other hand, the Confucian socio-political order starts with self-disci plined individuals and moves upward to families, govern ment, Worldly peace, Great Harmony and, at last, the state as well as society. Confucian values emphasize integration of an indi vidual ' s life and the state's well-being. Social reform or transformation, in this case, is a political matter. Problems of social inequalities are solved by political means. In imperial China, the government often used tax cuts or food relief out of the national granaries to deal with economic problems and natural disasters. Most of the victims were peasants as China has long been an agricultural country. Intellectuals, the upper social class, seldom asked for social transfor mation which would upset the existing political system. This would mean a challenge to the emperor. Intellectuals who had political ideals should wait until they became government officials through a national examination system. Ideas of democracy and socioeconomic reform did not flourish in China until the late 19th century when 27 Dr Sun advocated his "Three People's Principles" (Nationalism, Democracy, and the People's Livelihood) as his political ideal for a new China. Although most of his followers were mobilized by a nationalistic zeal to repatriate the Manchu rulers, he strived to end the time-honoured absolute monarchism and replace it by a republican government. Besides democracy, he also pleaded for land reform to alleviate the plight of peasants scattered around the vast mainland of China. His ideas about land reform could be regarded as early socialism in China. However, his ideals for a new China could not be realized in his lifetime because of political turmoil and the fact that democratic values had no roots in the Chinese mind. Until his death in 1925, China was hardly a unified nation, but rather a battlefield for warlords and imperialist adventurers. But his followers did manage to build a new political order from the ruins of an old China. The Soviet Experience The Russian Revolution in 1917 led by Lenin and the Bolsheviks had great influence in China. Chinese intellectuals were inspired by its success. Most of them thought that it could serve as a model for China. The May Fourth Movement in 1919 was the first student movement in modern China. Students and intellectuals 28 opposed imperialist invaders and warlords. Apart from these immediate political appeals, the May Fourth Movement was regarded as a cultural movement. Members of the Movement pleaded for "democracy" and "science" as a panacea for China. The Russian Revolution had spread communist ideology to China. The Communist Party of China was established in 1921. Even in his late years, Dr Sun was impressed by the Soviet experience. He thought that socialism might be a way to save China. The Communist Party claimed that socialism should be the way for a new China. Class struggle and a revolution led by the Communist Party would be the process to achieve that end. The Communist ideology challenged the Confucian values and put forward a proposal for social engineering. That marked the beginning of social transformation in China and a separation between "state" and "society." The Communist Party led by Mao Zedong succeeded in establishing a new regime in 1949. This is now known as the People's Republic of China. Social and Educational Change in Hong Kong The status of Hong Kong, being a British colony, remained intact during these changes (the 1911 and the 1949 Revolutions) . Hong Kong has long been administered by an efficient colonial bureacucracy that co-opted a 29 group of Chinese elite. This bureaucracy succeeded in bringing forth long-term political stability in Hong Kong accompanied by steady economic growth. A British model of education helped develop a Chinese elite to enter the ruling class. It prepared an elite for political succes sion. Paulston's (1977) conceptual framework of social and educational change is well-suited to analyze the situation in Hong Kong (Figure 3). Paradigms Equilibrium Theories Conflict Theories Evolutionary r-Marxian —mNeo-evolutionary -Neo-Marxian Structural-functionalists Cultural-revitalization 1—Systems Anarchistic-Utopian Figure 3. Paulston's model of conceptualizing social and educational change. 30 Structural-functionalist theory under the equilib rium paradigm can be used to illustrate the problem of social and educational change in Hong Kong. Paulston (1977) pointed out that structural-functionalists "focus on the homeostatic or balancing mechanisms by which societies maintain a 'uniform state'" (p. 379). The Confucian values and political culture provide such a balancing mechanism for a uniform state in Hong Kong. There has not been any acute conflict between Chinese and non-Chinese in the history of Hong Kong (except the case in the 1966-67 turmoil, induced by the spread of the Cultural Revolution in the mainland). Structural-functionalists also have a "strong conservative bias toward the undesirability of all but 'adaptive change'" (Paulston, 1977, p. 379). To make adaptive change possible, the system will only admit small incremental adjustments. In that case, the function of education is to help individuals preserve "the cultural tradition of the society" (Paulston, 1977, p. 380). In Hong Kong, a conservative British social class system and an elitist model of education have been transplanted into the Chinese community. Chinese elites are developed through the educational system and later co-opted into the bureaucracy. Elites enjoy power and privilege, but structural-functionalists contend that 31 social inequality is due to the difference of contributions and talents of each individual. They argue that "inequality as reflected by social and educational stratification arises basically out of the needs of societies, not out of the vested interests of individuals or groups" (Paulston, 1977, p. 380). Social inequality continues to exist as everybody keeps on contributing his or her own efforts. Social inequality is inevitable and individual survival depends upon the survival and well-being of society. While economic prosperity is the primary objective for the British rulers in Hong Kong, the role of education can be explained by the use of human capital theory. The theory is based upon structural-functional assumptions. In that theory, education has a "critical role in preparing skilled manpower, innovators, entrepreneurs and the like for social-economic modernization" (p. 381). This is why training for vocational purposes is emphasized in both the formal and nonformal educational settings of Hong Kong. The aim of education is to mobilize human resources for a full development of capitalism in Hong Kong. To achieve that aim, consensus rather than conflict is encouraged. There are some reasons why the Conflict paradigm may be not applicable to Hong Kong. Confucian values 32 encourage vertical integration of social relations. Social transformation which requires collective actions to institute "revolutionary change from below" may upset the harmonious political order. Without a concept of community or horizontal integration, Confucianism focuses on the moral conduct of individuals. Equity and justice will be the concern of a good ruler and his government. Besides, there have not been many encouraging examples of social transfor mation in China since the 1911 Revolution. Indeed the Cultural Revolution in 1960s caused many people to flee China and take refuge in Hong Kong. Hong Kong has played a very active role in the political development of China since the turn of the century. It is not only geographically but also culturally tied to China. But this tiny territory has served as a haven for political dissidents for years. Dr Sun Yat-sen and the Republicans had numerous activities in Hong Kong during and after the 1911 Revolution. The Communists sought sanctuary from the colony in their protracted war with the Nationalists. For them, Hong Kong was a place where they could spread new ideas and bring in new hopes. These activities were not allowed in China but tolerated in the colony. For years, freedom of speech has been an asset of Hong Kong 33 and the press is renowned for the vigour and extent of its activities. It asks people to tolerate others who have a different mind. The society encourages consensus rather than conflict. Against this background, contemporary adult education is characterized by its pluralistic nature. Institutions and educators have the liberty to conduct programs for a variety of organizational and social goals. In Hong Kong, consensus is the rubric of society and the education system is built on a British model. Adult education follows a strong liberal and humanistic tradition. Moreover, the colony has been industrialized rapidly after World War II. Vocational training and competency-based adult education strengthened the progressive and behavioural influences in the field. There have not been many discussions of analytic philosophy (Elias & Merriam, 1980) among adult educators in Hong Kbng. Few attempts were made to develop analytic philosophers in the field. The radical tradition has yielded many examples in the Third World. It applies to societies which have conflicting values, e.g. in cultural or socioeconomic contexts. As Hong Kong is a society which honours consensus, it has had little influence on adult education. However, while Hong Kong is moving toward 1997, and sociopolitical changes can 34 be anticipated, radical adult education is apt to spring up. Agencies and Programs In Hong Kong, adult education and continuing education overlap. A large number of agencies and programs have been set up to help people increase their knowledge and sharpen their skills after they have completed formal education. Moreover, an educational qualification is vital to academic and professional advancement. Therefore, many agencies are actively running certificate, diploma and degree programs for adults. The types of adult education agencies in Hong Kong can be described by using Schroeder's (1970) typology. Four types of agencies are differentiated in terms of the primacy of the adult education function. They have their examples in Hong Kong. Man (1988) provided a brief review of adult 'education institutions in the territory. Type I Agencies were established to serve the educational needs of adults—adult education is a central function. (Schroeder, 1970, p. 37) In Hong Kong, Type I Agencies include the Adult Education Section of Hong Kong Government, the Open Learning Institute of Hong Kong, the Open College of University of East Asia, Macau, and a huge number of proprietary schools. They offer learning opportunities 35 to adults who seek basic, and higher, recreational and professional education. Type II Agencies were established to serve the educational needs of youth which have assumed the added responsibility of at least partially serving the educational needs of adults—adult education is a secondary function. (Schroeder, 1970, p. 37) In Hong Kong, Type II Agencies are the Departments of Extramural Studies of the University of Hong Kong and the Chinese University of Hong Kong, Centre for Professional & Continuing Education of Hong Kong Polytechnic, City Polytechnic of Hong Kong, Division of Continuing Education of Hong Kong Baptist College, Hong Kong Shue Yan College (Night School) and other postsecondary colleges. They provide liberal and vocational education programs to adults during day and night time. Type III Agencies were established to serve both educational and noneducational needs of the community—adult education is an allied function employed to fulfill only some of the needs which agencies recognizing as their responsibility. (Schroeder, 1977, p. 37) Type III Agencies in Hong Kong refer to the Education Unit of Radio Television Hong Kong, Urban Council Libraries, City Hall of Hong Kong, Space Museum, Science Museum, Social Welfare Department of Hong Kong Government, The Family Planning Association 36 of Hong Kong. In their educational activities to meet the needs of the community, many participants are adults. Type IV Agencies were established to serve the special interests (economic, ideological) of special groups—adult education is a subordinate function employed primarily to further the special interests of the agency itself. (Schroeder, 1977, p. 37) In Hong Kong, Type IV Agencies cover a wide range of business and industry, welfare, religious and cultural organizations. Examples are Hong Kong Productivity Council, The Hong Kong Management Association, Technical Institutes and Training Centres of Vocational Training Council, Hang Seng School of Commerce(Extra Mural Programme), Kwun Tong Vocational Training Centre (Night School), Hong Kong College of Technology, The British Council, Alliance Francaise, Goethe-Institut, Japan Information & Cultural Office, Consulate-General of Japan, Caritas Adult and Higher Education Service, Hong Kong Young Women's Christian Association, Division of Continuing Education of The Chinese Young Men's Christian Association and The Dharmasthiti Cultural College. Programs offered by these agencies cover a wide range of academic and practical subjects. Most popular program areas are languages, business and commerce, 37 technical training, and hobbies. Some agencies have several teaching centres throughout the territory to deliver their programs. Some of these evening teaching centres are in premises rented from primary and secondary schools to hold classes. Various methods and techniques of adult education are employed to deliver the programs. Although traditional classroom oral teaching is often used in many adult education programs, some agencies have introduced a variety of methods and techniques to their participants. Method concerns the organization of learners for education whereas technique specifies a kind of relationship between the learner and the learning task (Verner, 1964). Individual methods include correspondence study, apprenticeship and courses by computer, while group methods include class, tutorial discussion group, forum, workshop, exhibitions and public education campaigns. Examples of techniques are role play, educational games, debate, simulation, lecture, group discussion, demonstra tion, field trips, and case studies. In Hong Kong, cor respondence and class meeting are the most popular methods. Techniques such as tutorial group discussions, demonstrations, and case studies are extensively used in programs. Programs offered by The Open Learning Institute are delivered by distance education means. Other agencies 38 may provide programs by classroom instruction as well as distance education. Some agencies have seasonal or bi annual intake of participants while others admit people to their programs continuously throughout the year. The methods and techniques described by Verner will be used for forming a part of the questionnaire items of the survey later. Professionalization Adult education in Hong Kong has been a profession rather than a social movement. Adult educators concern themselves with efficiency and effectiveness in serving the learner's needs. A profession is characterized by "clearly defined career paths, rewards, and a coherent knowledgebase" (Boshier, 1985, p. 3) even though the field of adult education is still plagued by marginalization. To professionalize adult education requires a crew of trained personnel that can give leadership to the field. In Hong Kong, sustained efforts to train adult educators have come late. There is no graduate program of adult education in Hong Kong. Adult education has once been included as an elective course for graduate students in the School of Education, The Chinese University of Hong Kong. It was called "An Elective Course in Adult Education," jointly organized by the Hong Kong Associa tion for Continuing Education and the School of Education, 39 The Chinese University of Hong Kong. Content of the program included introduction to adult education, adult learning, instructional techniques, civic education for adults and adult education in Hong Kong. Speakers in that course were drawn from the Hong Kong Association for Continuing Education. In the past, practitioners who wished to study adult education at a university had no choice but to go overseas. On the local scene, there have been recent developments in running indigenous training programs for practitioners through overseas joint efforts and local endeavors. 1. Diploma in Adult Education: This is a program jointly organized by the Department of Administrative, Adult & Higher Education, University of British Columbia and the Department of Extramural Studies, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, and co-sponsored by the Hong Kong Association for Continuing Education. The first round of the program started in 1984 and students graduated in 1986. With the faculty from UBC coming to teach in Hong Kong, the program provided systematic training for practitioners in the theories and techniques of adult education. It enabled them to conduct adult training in different institutional settings. 2. Basic Training Course for Teachers of Adults: Beginning in 1975, this course was jointly sponsored 40 by the Department of Extramural Studies, The Chinese University of Hong Kong and the Hong Kong Association for Continuing Education. It offered basic training in theory and methods of adult teaching and learning to in-service teachers of adults and people interested in adult education. This course gained support from the Education Department of Hong Kong Government. Participants who had a satisfactory attendance in the course could apply for half-fee refund from the Education Department. 3. Action Learning Program: Formerly known as the Pilot Training Course for Nonformal Education Personnel, which began in 1980, this program was renamed in 1984 to introduce participants to new techniques and approaches to adult and nonformal education in urban settings (Wong, 1986). With the support of the German Adult Education Association (DW) and the leadership of the Asian South Pacific Bureau of Adult Education (ASPBAE) Secretariat, it was organized by the Department of Nonformal Education of Thailand, the Singapore Association for Continuing Education and the Hong Kong Association for Continuing Education. Participants were nonformal and adult educators in Hong Kong and other Southeast Asian countries. During this 3-week program, they paid visits to various adult 41 education agencies in Hong Kong, Bangkok and Singapore. New learning and exchange of experience took place in these guided visits. This program was an example of regional joint training. Apart from these programs, many other adult education agencies do their own training of trainers. Trained trainers from the above programs often become planners and teachers for training of trainers programs in their own workplace. For example, some of the graduates of the Diploma in Adult Education formed part of the teaching team in the "Introductory Course To Adult Education" offered by the Caritas Adult and Higher Education Service. More practitioners are being trained as more people are joining the adult education profession. A professional association was therefore established to co-ordinate the efforts of experienced trainers and to promote training among practitioners. Schroeder (197 0) regarded professional associa tions as a type of leadership organization in adult education. In terms of leadership, a professional association represents the interests of adult educa tors, in a process called "advocacy" (Darkenwald & Merriam, 1982, p. 28). The Hong Kong Association for Continuing Education serves as a professional association in Hong Kong. It was established in 1975 42 to co-ordinate adult/continuing education agencies in Hong Kong. It works to promote public understanding of educational needs and objectives, services and resouces, and to encourage public participation as well as support of adult/continuing education. Since its inception, the Association has organized a number of training programs and international/regional conferences for adult/continuing educators. It conducts seminars and surveys on adult/continuing education policies and prepares reports to advise the government. Evaluation and research in adult/continuing education are the main emphases of the Association's publications. The Association has joined the Asian South Pacific Bureau of Adult Education (ASPBAE) and the International Council for Adult Education (ICAE) to maintain links with the international adult education community. Members of the Association are adult/continuing educators coming from all types of agencies. The prospect for professionalization of the field in Hong Kong will depend on research and the training of adult educators. To build a body of philosophical and scientific knowledge of the field is as important as consolidating experiences of traditional practice. A solid foundation of systematic, tested knowledge will improve the status of the field. Practitioners will then 43 be able to develop a career in adult education. More resources can be used to develop the field. However, the environment for research and further development of the field will be shaped by sociopolitical forces playing in the run-up to 1997. The Sino-British Joint Declaration signed in 1984 had great implications for social and educational development in Hong Kong. 44 CHAPTER III THE SINO-BRITISH JOINT DECLARATION Background People in Hong Kong began to discuss the 1997 problem in the early 1980s. For 150 years, people have accepted the fact that Hong Kong is a British colony and China would not act rashly to take the territory back. Although the three "unequal treaties" (see Chapter I, p. 2) forming the Colony were signed in imperial times, the two Revolutions led by the Republicans (1911) and the Communists (1949), did not result in regaining the territory. After the 1949 Revolution, the Communists did recover all concessions taken by foreign powers during the Manchu Dynasty. The "problem" of Taiwan is totally different from that of Hong Kong. Taiwan still bears the name "Republic of China" established by the Republicans and Dr Sun Yat-sen after the 1911 Revolution. In early 1920's, Dr Sun reorganized the revolutionary party of republicans into the Nationalist Party. After his death, Chiang kai-shek took the leadership both of the country and party, and began a long political struggle with the Communists. In 1949, the Communist Party succeeded in seizing power and establishing a regime called People's 45 Republic of China. The Nationalists fled to Taiwan, which is an island on the southeastern end of the mainland, and continued their regime in the name of "Republic of China." However, these two tiny cities on the far south side of the country, Hong Kong and Macau (a Portuguese colony founded in the 16th century), are neither counted as concessions nor a case like Taiwan. The Communists held that Hong Kong and Macau are fait accompli and they are questions "left over from the past" (Sino-British Joint Declaration on the Question of Hong Kong, 1984, p. 1) or "legada pelo passado" (Declaracao Con junta Do Governo Da Republica Portuguesa E Do Governo Da Republica Popular Da China Sobre A Questao De Macau, 1987, p. 1). This meant that China would solve the problem of the two colonies by political (negotiations) rather than legal (international resolution) means. The past should not interfere with the present. Settlement of the questions of Hong Kong and Macau must wait for a ripe opportunity. In 1967, there was political unrest in Hong Kong because of the Cultural Revolution in mainland China. The seeds of the Revolution had spread to the Colony and many leftist activities rocked the colonial government. Most people feared an imminent Chinese take-over. Others emigrated. But doubts soon 46 passed. Chinese authorities did not state any wish to take the colony back at this time. Thus, the colonial government remained in control. After the turbulent years in the late 1960's, Hong Kong began to prosper. No one worried about the future of Hong Kong in the late 1970's because of its booming economy. 1997 was the date only recorded in land leases on New Territories granted to investors. It existed on paper and in most people's minds, but few mentioned it in their daily conversations. Negotiation about a post-1997 Hong Kong was a cui bono matter as it alludes to uncertainties. People generally hoped to maintain the status quo and enjoy their social and economic well-being. But they were still facing a due date. Foreign and local investors needed to know what would happen when the land leases expired in 1997. In the early 1980' s, people became anxious about the future of Hong Kong. In 1982, Britain decided to open discussion with China in order not to "deter investment and damage confidence" in Hong Kong (Draft Agreement, 1984, p. 2). Formal exchanges between the two governments regarding the 1997 question began in September 1982 when the British Prime Minister, Mrs Margaret Thatcher, visited Beijing. She was convinced that the three treaties forming the Colony were still legal and wished to negotiate with the Chinese government on the basis of 47 them. However, as the treaties were "unequal" in Chinese eyes, Chinese top leaders, especially Deng Xiaoping, did not recognize them and objected to discussions based upon them. Therefore, negotiations were only conducted on the premise that Hong Kong should maintain its prosperity and stability in future. No representative from Hong Kong was included in the negotiations. Only the Chinese and the British governments sent delegates to the negotiating table. The Governor spoke as one of the British delegates but not for Hong Kong. The Chinese government regarded Hong Kong as its territory and the resolution of its destiny a matter for internal, not international, affairs. Therefore, it did not deal with any voices from Hong Kong. The negotiations were not premised on the extension of the treaties since China would not tolerate further foreign rule in its territory after 1997. At last, the two parties agreed to discuss what political form Hong Kong would take while being part of the People's Republic. Britain had to work out a plan acceptable to the Parliament and its people. It could not afford a large influx of immigrants from Hong Kong, but it had to convince the international community that it was not handing Hong Kong people over to Communist rule. Moreover, it looked forward to good relations with China and the opening of the 48 huge Chinese market to its exports. These concerns complicated the negotiating process which lasted for two years. Finally in December, 1984, an agreement on the future of Hong Kong was reached. The text, including three Annexes and Memoranda, took the form of a White Paper and was named "A Draft Agreement between the Government of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the Government of the People's Republic of China on the Future of Hong Kong," published in London and Hong Kong at the same time. The Chinese called it the "Sino-British Joint Declaration on the Question of Hong Kong" and had it published by Xinhua News Agency (Hong Kong Branch), a de facto Chinese official representative in Hong Kong. Political Analysis of the Declaration The Sino-British Joint Declaration aimed at recon ciling a capitalist Hong Kong with a socialist China by using the concept of "one country, two systems." It ends the British rule by 30 June, 1997 and recovers Chinese jurisdiction over the territory. A Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR) of the People's Republic of China will be established and a Basic Law of the HKSAR promulgated by the National People's Congress will define the ruling of the territory. It was claimed that Hong Kong people can retain their 49 capitalist style of living for 50 years after 1997 and the People's Republic will not implement socialist policies in the territory. A 50-year period will be granted to keep the capitalist society intact. Chinese officials argued that the standard of living in the mainland will catch up with that of Hong Kong in half a century's time. There is no need for Hong Kong people to worry about an immediate convergence of Hong Kong and China in 1997. The Joint Declaration allows this buffer period for an ultimate integration of Hong Kong into China. It will terminate in 2047. Using Special Administrative Regions to reunify divided territories is regarded as a constitutional decision. Article 31 of the Constitution of the People's Republic of China promulgated in 1982 said that The state may establish special administrative regions when necessary. The systems to be instituted in special administrative regions shall be prescribed by law enacted by the National People's Congress in the light of the specific conditions. (Foreign Language Press, 1983, p. 27) This notion of special administrative regions sent a signal to people watching the Sino-British negotiations. The Chinese constitution had set the path for reunifying divided territories such as Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macau. 50 The Communists hope that Hong Kong will act as an example for Taiwan, which seems a more difficult case for reunification. The concept of "one country, two systems," used by China to solve the 1997 problem, captures the arrangements for integrating heterogeneous societies into one nation. The Chinese hoped that "success" in Hong Kong will induce the Taiwan Nationalists to the negotiation table. In that case, the Communists claim they will allow Hong Kong to "enjoy a high degree of autonomy, except in foreign and defence affairs which are the responsibilities of the Central People's Government" (Joint Declaration, 1984, p. 2). The HKSAR can keep its status as a free port and its laws currently in force. The infrastructure of the society is supposed to remain unchanged. The HKSAR has policy-making power over education, among other matters, such as allocation of resources, administration and accreditation. People can decide on their own education, including study outside the HKSAR. But one important thing to note is that Hong Kong will remain an "administrative" locality only. This does not mean "independence." Chinese officials consistently made it clear that the British should return Hong Kong, its territory and people together, to China. Then, the central government gives autonomy, according to Basic Law, to the administration of HKSAR. The HKSAR 51 is by itself not a polity. Using an administrative cap to subsume a divergent society under the national flag is a Chinese version of "one country, two systems." Britain served its own interests and made a good bargain in the negotiations. It has taken the most and given the least. Although it has to administer the territory up to 1997, it serves as a good partner of China. As China continues its open policy, Britain gains a huge market for its exports. The Joint Declaration asks Britain to run a prosperous and stable Hong Kong and return it, without any changes, to China on 1 July 1997. Britain will end its rule by 1997 but did relieve the anxiety of local and foreign investors. The Joint Declaration authorizes the colonial government to grant land leases expiring in 2047. Moreover, Britain convinced the international community that the Joint Declaration does not send Hong Kong people to Communist rule. The future HKSAR will enjoy a high degree of autonomy and its government and legislature "shall be composed of local inhabitants" (Joint Declaration, 1984, p. 7). The Joint Declaration causes no fear of a large influx of immigrants to Britain. The British government has not granted the right of abode in the United Kingdom to all holders of British Dependent Territories Citizens (BDTCs) passports in Hong Kong. The Joint Declaration 52 stipulates that all Hong Kong Chinese are Chinese nationals, though some of them may have BDTCs passports. All BDTCs passports will expire on 30 June, 1997, and holders cannot keep their BDTCs status starting 1 July 1997. They can get a British Nationals (Overseas) passport after that date. This type of passport is nothing more than a travel document. It contains no right of abode and consular protection can only be invoked in third countries, but not in China. This arrangement alleviates British responsibility for Hong Kong people after 1997. Historical Meanings to Hong Kong The Sino-British Joint Declaration ends the history of Hong Kong partition from China. Before the years of separation, Hong Kong was a barren land with a tiny population. The British took it and built a political system totally different from China's. A British model of education fits people in this capitalist society. The economy grows and booms continuously. Hong Kong can ascribe its success to the detachment from China. The place is small and politically insulated from the mainland. But its people enjoy and love freedom. Hong Kong is geographically connected to China. The population largely depends on the motherland for water and food imports. But the dependent city 53 has a place in the history of modern China. During the formative years of modern China, Hong Kong served as a harbour of refuge for revolutionaries and political activists. Many who had made a narrow escape from China stayed in the colony. To the mainlanders, Hong Kong is a place of other jurisdiction. Facing the foreigners (British rulers), they might voice opinions not in tune with Chinese orthodoxy. This freedom of speech provided outlets and protection for those who had changed China. The 1911 and 1949 Revolutions resulted in not only political but ideological transformation. Many Republicans and then Communists survived because Hong Kong sheltered them. The colony allows voices which sound like heresy in the mainland. The society values freedom of expression and its education system supports this. The return of Hong Kong to China after 1997 could close the door for dissidents. When Hong Kong comes under the jurisdiction of China, local inhabitants are worrying about the extent to which they can keep their freedom of expression. They cannot easily provide shelter to dissidents coming from the mainland. The Joint Declaration will change the historical position of Hong Kong thereafter. 54 Uniqueness of the Situation Hong Kong has a different ethos than other Chinese capitalist communities, such as Taiwan and Singapore. Unlike Taiwan, Hong Kong is not burdened with a mission to maintain a Chinese political "legitimacy." Both Singapore and Hong Kong are international cities but the latter is not a multicultural one. Hong Kong faces no challenges of multiracial reconciliation. It is renowned for free trade and an open market. There are ample opportunities for entrepreneurs, adventurists and tal ented people from all over the world. But it is incomparable to Shanghai in 1940s, which was hardly a unified territory patched up with concessions. The British Hong Kong government runs an efficient administra tion and keeps an effective public order. Rule of law is honoured and human rights are, in general, respected in legal matters. The non-interventionism in economy facili tates foreign investment and local production. Huge international corporations and small businesses cater to their own markets. Hong Kong grows with a capitalist culture which prompts consumption and encourages free competition. The powerful mass media helps promote novel products and images of "public figures." People adopt a pragmatic approach to life. As Hong Kong is densely-populated, everyone scrambles for a living space. People 55 usually work hard because they believe in "survival of the fittest." Time is so precious that "busy" is a word for life. But in international relations, Hong Kong is too weak to decide on its own. The Vietnamese refugee problem is an international issue but Hong Kong has had to shoulder the burden of looking after Vietnamese refugees for more than 15 years. Even though Hong Kong people are not willing to receive "boat people" anymore, they should wait for Britain to negotiate with the international community. They can do nothing to stop the influx of refugees. The arrangement for the future of Hong Kong in the Joint Declaration is novel in the history of mankind. The Joint Declaration does not encourage the formation of a sovereign nation-state. Also it does not introduce a process of decolonization which happened very often in 1950s and 1960s (Kuan & Lau, 1989). Instead of giving independence, it transfers the sovereignty of a capitalist system to its socialist motherland at a designated date. This capitalist system will become a subset of the mother socialist country. The integration does not encourage an immediate convergence of systems but ostensibly allows capitalism to continue for 50 years. This capitalist oasis will be ruled by the Basic Law. People in Hong Kong are facing a dilemma. Many are aiming at democracy for a decolonized society. But Hong 56 Kong is not going to be an independent country. People who have been fighting for democracy under colonial rule may encounter resistance from the Communists in future. The situation of Hong Kong is incomparable with that of other newly-independent countries. It is not technologi cally backward and faces no problem of development in ad ministration. It has established a sophisticated and efficient bureaucracy for administering the territory. Its education system has succeeded in producing an elite. Hong Kong political leaders are not looking for self-rule or waiting for the mainlanders to set up a socialist model. They are required to run a capitalist administra tion within the frame of "autonomy" given by the motherland. Autonomy is a great word for the Communist rulers. It has been used to show the Communists' willingness to reconcile the differences between ethnic groups, religions, and societies in the country. The Tibet Autonomous Region is assumed to be an example of ethnic and religious reconciliation. But many Tibetans are still unhappy with the Communist central government. Political turmoil is evident from time to time. However, Hong Kong is unlike Tibet. It will not become an autonomous region but a special administrative region. Although the HKSAR is supposed to enjoy a high degree of autonomy, it has not been given a clear picture of 57 how autonomous it will become. The Joint Declaration left many questions unanswered. But the interpretation of the concept of autonomy will determine the destiny of the HKSAR. Clark (1989) dealt with the problem of autonomy for Hong Kong under the Basic Law. He stated that In order to conceptualize the forms of autonomy we will follow the approach of Gordon L. Clark. Clark has divided the concept into two principles: initiation and immunity. The power of initiation deals with where policies are initiated, while the power of immunity deals with whether these powers are subject to scrutiny by higher governmental organs. Immunity also deals with the form the scrutiny takes if it exists at all. (p.154) These two priniciples: initiative and immunity are formulated from a legal perspective. In arguing about the autonomy of a future HKSAR, Clark concluded that economic and political, rather than purely legal, factors will decide the pattern.* While Hong Kong should struggle for greater initiation and stronger immunity, people do not forget that the "one country, two systems" format will last for only 50 years. Hong Kong should ultimately be integrated into China. Autonomy will cease to be an issue for discussion. This uniqueness of situation characterizes what the Club of Rome called the "human gap." It means "the 58 distance between growing complexity and our capacity to cope with it" (Boktin, Elmandjra & Malitza, 1979, p. 6). The "one country, two systems" format is an invention spurred from necessity. It comes into being because the political circumstances require it. But whether this format can work sucessfully or not is still unknown. It is only a concept for analysis. People have no experience with it. But Hong Kong people are bound to accept it without conditions. Nobody can project what his or her life will actually look like after 1997. To many people, the 1997 problem flares like a catastrophe and they cannot deal with it by "maintenance learning." Many are forced to go through a process of "learning by shock" (Botkin, Elmandjra & Malitza, 1979, p. 10). But this kind of shock learning often becomes a painful experience and costs people much time and energy. 59 CHAPTER IV REACTIONS OF THE COLONY Socio-political Echoes The Sino-British Joint Declaration reduced the guesswork by investors in Hong Kong. No extended British rule after 1997 would be allowed. The designation of a 50-year buffer period clarified some of the uncertainties cloaking Hong Kong's future. The British and Hong Kong governments spared no efforts to promote the Joint Declaration to Hong Kong people and the world. The Chinese and British governments declared that they would cooperate to implement the Joint Declaration. The Sino-British Joint Liaison Group, stipulated in the Joint Declaration, was then established to serve this purpose. Many people prepared for drafting the Basic Law, which was dubbed the "mini-constitution" of the HKSAR. There were two kinds of reactions to the Joint Declaration. Some people were happy to see Hong Kong returning to the motherland in 1997. Many were panic-stricken because they believe that Communists are ruthless masters. They had no confidence in the Communist government, which, to them, had a history of repressing dissidents. Reminders of the Cultural Revolution (1966-1976) alarmed people. Many local 60 inhabitants had witnessed the atrocities of Communists during political purges against soldiers, bureaucrats, and civilians. Some were victims of these purges and had fled to Hong Kong. They cannot forget the past and will think of leaving the territory before the Chinese flag is raised. The rich are afraid of losing their money after 1997. Hong Kong has rapidly developed during the last two decades into one of Asia's leading financial centres. On the other hand, China has had a planned economy since 1949, and adopted a so-called "open" policy only ten years ago. The pace of development in the mainland lags far behind that in the colony. Hong Kong people enjoy a standard of living much higher than their counterparts in China. When Hong Kong becomes part of China, it will be easier for the mainlanders to come to Hong Kong. It is claimed that their jealousy will cause the Chinese government to check the growth of wages and freedoms (e.g. to travel abroad) people now enjoy (Hicks, 1989). Freedom of expression is vital to intellectual pursuits. Creativity and initiative grow when people are free to choose their careers and improve their quality of life. Individualism, market economy, and rule of law shape an open society in which people are working for their own good. This type of society varies dramatically 61 from a socialist one where Communist ideology and the Party's instructions permeate daily life. Hong Kong people are used to a clear separation of government and private life. People who have been free for so long are resistant to tightened control. The advent of 1997 causes people to wonder about the extent to which they can enjoy civic liberties. Fear of Communist interference has driven many inhabitants to emigrate. The rich go away with capital needed for local investment. The departure of the middle class has slashed inland revenue as they are heavy tax bearers in terms of income and consumption. At this time of writing, a "brain-drain" had emerged because the well-educated are moving to other countries in large numbers. There are no official records of how many residents have emigrated since the signing of the Sino-British Joint Declaration, but the government estimates that about 40 to 50 thousand people are emigrating every year. Migration of these better-off people will undermine the socioeconomic well-being of the colony. People often refer to this difficult situation as a "confidence problem. " People need to be assured that they will not lose their freedoms and property after 1997. For those who are unable or unwilling to leave, democratization should be achieved in a decolonized 62 Hong Kong. A pro-democracy movement started early in the 1980's when the government issued the White Paper entitled "District Administration in Hong Kong" in 1981. The Paper demonstrated the government's intent to improve administration at district level and encourage inhabitants' participation in their districts. But the value of the Paper is the call for elections of some members to the District Boards, which were set up for advising local administration. People viewed this move as an important step in local political participation. They began discussions on how elections can help promote democracy in Hong Kong where the majority of citizens are said to have been politically apathetic. Another White Paper entitled "The Further Development of Representative Government in Hong Kong" (1984) tried to tackle the problem of "representation" in Hong Kong. A colonial government can hardly claim to represent the people. The British set up a colonial bureaucracy to rule. The legislature is not composed of representatives elected by people, but a cluster of elite people hand-picked by the government to serve as "appointed members." This kind of legislature is not a manifestation of "representative democracy." But this White Paper stated the government's wishes to "represent authoritatively the views of the people of Hong Kong, and 63 which is more directly accountable to the people of Hong Kong" (p. 3). It advocated the development of a repre sentative government in Hong Kong. This step can be considered as a reformation at the central rather than local (district) level. The government made a break through by introducing some members into the Legislative Council through indirect elections in 1985. At first the Legislative Council was composed of members elected by the electoral college and functional constituencies, respec tively, members appointed by the Governor, and official members. This legislature then began to include some representative elements. But a representative democracy is derived from direct elections. The government was too cautious to hold direct elections in 1985. The Paper kept the option for direct election open and promised to review it in 1987. There are some reasons why the government has reservations about direct elections. Hong Kong has no tradition of party politics and, as a result, local in habitants are regarded as being politically apathetic. It is claimed that a change in the composition of the Legislative Council will cause discontinuity in political tradition and instability in society. After the birth of the Sino-British Joint Declaration in 1984, any plans for political development should be kept in accordance 64 with the Basic Law, promulgated by China in 1990. Any drastic or fundamental changes in the political system will be harmful to a smooth transition to 1997. Britain is not willing to take the risk because it wants to protect its own interests and also look after the economic prosperity and social stability of Hong Kong until 30 June 1997. Pro-democracy supporters were anxious to hold direct elections in 1988. They thought that direct elections would give people an opportunity to know what democracy means. They argued that political participation should be encouraged in the territiory. While Hong Kong will be allowed to keep its capitalist system for 50 years (as said in the Joint Declaration), pro-democracy supporters strived to inhibit intervention from the mainland. They claim that a legislature composed of directly elected members will safeguard the interests of local inhabitants. Pro-democracy supporters have an ideal: the future HKSAR should have a community of civic-minded residents, and the government and legislature of HKSAR should be accountable to the people. Therefore, before 1997 the Legislative Council has to include members who can truly represent the people. Although there were demands for direct elections to the Legislative Council in 1988, the British administration halted the push for 65 political reform in Hong Kong. Critics concluded that Britain stayed in a neutral position because of pressure from China to check the democratization movement (Cheng, 1989) . Since 1985, Chinese officials have reiterated that people asking for political reforms should bear in mind the need to converge with the Basic Law. Hong Kong should not go too far in changing the political system. The future HKSAR will be administered according to the Basic Law. Britain should return the territory as it has been for 150 years to China in 1997. The Green Paper entitled "The 1987 Review of Development in Representative Government" represented a British withdrawal from "democratization." The Paper dealt with the controversy of direct elections in a low key manner. Introducing a directly elected element into the Legislative Council in 1988 was treated as an option for reforming the Council. Hong Kong people were asked to give their comments on the options to the Survey Office set up by the government. Although the pro-democracy supporters had been fighting hard to mobilize the public, they lost the battle. The White Paper entitled "The Development of Representative Government: The Way Forward" issued in 1988 concluded that time was not ripe to hold direct elections for the Legislative Council in 1988. People should wait until 1991 when the Legislative 66 Council will then have a number of directly elected members. The pro-democracy movement did not reduce their efforts. A number of political groups were formed to voice their opinions about how democratization should proceed. These groups can roughly be divided into three sections: conservative, moderate and liberal. Members include some Legislative Councillors, businessmen, professionals, educators and community workers. Each section had plans for political reform. They sent their views to the Basic Law Consultative Committee regarding the first draft (issued April 1988) and second draft (issued February 1989) of the Basic Law. Two themes in the drafts caught their attention. The first related to the method for selecting the Chief Executive of the HKSAR. The second was concerned with the method for constituting the legislature after 1997. Discussions were focused on when the legislature would have directly elected members and when the Chief Executive would be elected by universal suffrage. Arguments varied on the percentage of directly and indirectly elected members after 1997 and whether a bicameral system would be suitable for Hong Kong. There were vigorous debates in the Basic Law Drafting Committee where members were coming from Hong Kong and China to 67 work out the drafts together. Consensus had to be reached so that the Basic Law can ensure Hong Kong people a clear political future. The Basic Law was finally promulgated in March 1990. While the pro-democracy movement worked for an open and free political identity in Hong Kong, a campaign was waged to open "exit options." Although the debate on right of abode in the UK for three million British passport holders in Hong Kong had abated after the birth of the Joint Declaration, the community still remembered this dormant right. There was frequent political lobbying in the British Parliament. Britain would find it difficult to grant three million people right of abode in UK though it was deemed by many as a moral responsibility. On the other hand, these three million people may not be able or willing to settle in UK, but such "a pledge was thought to be "political insurance" against an alleged Communist threat. Ulti mately a new "nationality package" for Hong Kong British passport holders was issued in December 1989. About 225,000 Hong Kong people holding British Dependent Territory Citizens (BDTCs) passports are supposed to be granted full British passports. But this right is only for a privileged elite, including the well-educated people, the professionals, and those who have "close ties" 68 with Britain. The average citizen may find it difficult to benefit from the package. People continue to fight for a larger package to include more BDTC passport holders. They will need the coverage to strengthen their confidence to stay in Hong Kong. Repercussions in Education The emigration of well-educated people caused a "brain-drain." Among the emigrants, many were university graduates who had previously occupied middle and top management positions in government and business organizations. Vacancies left by them are hard to fill because it takes time and energy to train people. As Hong Kong follows a British elitist model of education, the departure of university graduates weakens the socioeco nomic development in the territory. The Hong Kong government tried to cope with this in a variety of ways. On the one hand, it gave favourable employment conditions to emigrants who left to gain citizenship in another country and then returned to Hong Kong. On the other hand, it expanded the provision of higher and adult/ continuing education. The University of Science and Technology and the Open Learning Institute of Hong Kong were established to produce more degree-holders and qualified people. "1997" has had a great impact on adult/continuing 69 education in Hong Kong. People have to prepare for a transition from colonial rule to integration with China. For a person who has been living in a free society for many years, the prospect of such a transition is sobering. Although the HKSAR will be given a high degree of autonomy, Chinese officials have constantly reiterated that Hong Kong is a part of China. The Chinese government will not tolerate intervention from foreign countries concern ing the political development in Hong Kong. The future of Hong Kong will be deemed a purely internal affair of China. But as China tightens its control of Hong Kong, people lose confidence in the future. Facing this "human gap, " (between the unprecedented situation of Hong Kong and people's capacity to cope with it) people might find maintenance or shock learning inadequate. In this case, "innovative learning" would help. Botkin, Elmandjra and Malitza (1979) asserted that "innovative leaning is a necessary means of preparing individuals and societies to act in concert in new situations, especially those that have been, and continue to be, created by humanity itself" (p.12). There are two features of innovative learning: anticipation and par ticipation. While maintenance learning is reactive by nature, anticipation refers to a proactive effort to make plans for future. Anticipatory learning asks people 70 to imagine scenarios and look for long-term desirable alternatives in dealing with awkward situations. Partici pation is both a right and a responsibility. People should participate in the decision-making processes of their schools, workplace, and community. Participatory learning urges people to find out their rights, articulate their interests> exchange values and feelings with, others, and work out together what is good for one and the other. The theme of participation in innovative learning is of much significance to the people of Hong Kong. People begin to be aware of the importance of political participation. This awareness has come along with the promotion of civic education. Citizenship training is one of the major functions of adult education. The transition period to 1997 is historic in the development of adult/ continuing education (ACE) in Hong Kong. People know that ACE will be important for individuals to upgrade their knowledge and skills in order to deal with changes in life. But they often forget the social implications of adult education for that transition period. In discussing Eduard Lindeman's contributions to the development of theory and philosophy in adult education, Brookfield (1984) pointed out that the social relevance of adult education has often been neglected by 71 practitioners. What Lindeman has contributed to the field is to introduce the concept "andragogy" at a time earlier than Malcolm Knowles did. His critical evaluation of the meaning of experience in adult life preceded the work of Paulo Freire. To Lindeman, adult education can be used "as a force to counter the threats posed by demagogy, dominance, and dictatorship" (p.191). Adult education works for democracy, which entails participa tion of an informed citizenry in social action. Adult educators should not only hold a service orientation but attend to the social purposes of the field. Adult educators in Hong Kong have been urged to pay attention to the process of social change in the run-up to 1997. But they are part of the community and have their own political orientations and these will likely influence their perception of developments in the field. 72 CHAPTER V SCENARIOS FOR THE FUTURE In one respect, the future of Hong Kong has already been designated in the Siho-British Joint Declaration. Some believe Hong Kong is doomed to disappointment; some think otherwise. Politicians, educators, businessmen and the common people are looking for ways to deal with changes in the 1990's. Society must progress even though changes may not be positive. People have drives to liberalize society, but a democratized Hong Kong would be difficult for China to control. While people are fighting for democracy in Hong Kong, they are warned by China not to change the political system so much, (e.g. a legislature composed by all directly elected members) . The Chinese government would like to see the political system remain essentially the same as it was in colonial times. However, if Hong Kong is to remain stable and prosperous, people will work hard for future development. Socioeconomic as well as political development need visions. Politicians, educators and businessmen have their own visions of the future of Hong Kong. But visions must be based upon concrete situations. Scenarios help crystallize visions and, concerning 1997, three have emerged. 73 The "Continuing Prosperity" Scenario About 62 percent of the population have stayed in Hong Kong. Lower class people did not have enough money or knowledge and skills to emigrate. They are pessimistic about the future but can do nothing to change it. Most are not concerned about who is in government but only care about whether they can go to work everyday and get paid every month. Junior civil servants worry that their super annuation fund may not be redeemed after retirement. Dis ciplinary forces, e.g. police and correctional services, are plagued by low morale because those who give orders have changed. Some businessmen who have previously traded with China are staying to look for more opportunities in the Chinese market. They believe that good prospects emerge from China's open international trade policy. Hong Kong is a free port that serves as a bridge between China and western traders. The airport is overcrowded with busy flights and hotels are fully booked. Horse races continue and stock markets boom. Bids for real estate hit the record prices. Older people stay because emigration is too difficult at their stage of life. It is not easy for them to adopt a new life-style. They do not worry about the new government because such a change does not mean too much 74 to them. They have been politically apathetic for years and would not ask for things from the government. A minority of people are pleased that Hong Kong has returned to its motherland. People believe that the HKSAR enjoys a high degree of autonomy while being part of China. Hong Kong continues to prosper. The "Wait and See" Scenario It is 1997 and about 20 percent of the population have left Hong Kong temporarily. The middle class people have sought citizenship in a foreign country. They come back to Hong Kong after getting a foreign passport. Most of them are professionals and businessmen who have no confidence in the HKSAR but are reluctant to give up what they have established in Hong Kong. They stay as long as the situation remains good. But precautionary measures have been adopted. They have transferred most of their savings to the country in which they have citizenship and purchased one-year round open air-tickets to it. Some deposit foreign currencies in banks within Hong Kong. If nothing happens, they travel in and out Hong Kong regularly. Once the stock market plunges, banks are run on or the People Liberation Army begin to march into the town, they just take their passports and board the planes. As the "brain drain" deepens, the government and many business organizations attract "brain-drainers" to stay 75 in Hong Kong to work by good pay package. Once Hong Kong is finished, a number of public and private organizations are emptied out. Many faces disappear on once the busiest streets. The "It's All over" Scenario About 18 percent of the population have left Hong Kong permanently. The upper and upper-middle class people are afraid of losing their wealth and freedoms. Ten billion dollars have left for Canada, Australia, the US and Britain. A HKSAR currency has replaced the former British Hong Kong dollar. People are forced to convert their cash into HKSAR dollars at the China Bank. Entre preneurs are "advised" to invest in China projects in order to prove their "patriotism." There are calls on television, radio and newspapers for people to buy HKSAR government bonds. The government controls foreign ex change. The HKSAR money cannot be brought in and out Hong Kong freely. Those who wish to leave Hong Kong for any reason should apply for an exit visa even though they hold British Nationals (Overseas) passports. Pay increases are frozen and strikes banned. Neighbourhood vigilance com mittees are established for reporting "plots" to subvert the People's Republic. The People Liberation Army is stationed in all former British barracks. Drill runs on the October 1 National Day. Public services such as 76 sewage, garbage disposal and transportation have deterio rated because workers are poorly paid and the "brain drain" has taken away skilled administrators. Schools lack experienced teachers and public hospitals are short of doctors and nurses. Corruption plagues government depart ments. Elections are held but only those candidates who have been "screened" by the Central People's Government can run for office. The economy stagnates. These three scenarios contain elements that were incorporated into a survey conducted to achieve the purposes of this study. The survey was concerned with the impact of 1997 on the shape of ACE. Its impact was examined by asking adult educators to estimate how the interests in the content of ACE will vary for the three kinds of people: those staying, those leaving Hong Kong temporarily, or those leaving permanently. Respondents were also asked to estimate how the use of the processes (methods and techniques) of ACE will increase or decrease in Hong Kong generally and in their workplace. As "1997" is a political problem, the survey also investigated the extent to which the political orientations of adult educators would influence their estimates and views concerning the development of the field. 77 CHAPTER VI INSTRUMENT DEVELOPMENT A survey was carried out to study how the 1997 problem influenced the development of adult/continuing education (ACE) in Hong Kong. The questionnaire consisted of three parts. The first listed the content and the second the processes of ACE. The content of ACE referred to a number of academic or practical subjects covered by ACE programs. The processes of ACE referred to methods and techniques (Verner, 1964). The third part of the questionnaire concerned the sociodemographic characteristics of respon dents. These characteristics referred to their background in ACE (years of service, professional concern and role), their views concerning the purposes of adult education and their political orientations. The purposes of adult education were Boshier's (1985) social integration, social responsibility, social change and technical competence. Political orientations referred to Almond & Verba's (1963) cognitive, affective and evaluative orientations towards the political context. Item Construction Part I of the questionnaire contained items about the content of adult education. There were 45 subject items arrayed in nine categories. Table 1 shows all subject items 78 Table 1 The 45 Subject Items in Part I of the questionnaire. Languages Chinese English Japanese French German Language Language Language Language Language Home Gardening Hobby Handicrafts Hobbies Fashion Design Chinese Calligraphy Hobby Photography China Chinese Trade Legal System China Studies Chinese Arts Chinese Philosophy Chinese History Accounting & Auditing Business & Commerce Advertising /Marketing International Trade Investment Planning Banking Practice Company Law Property Law Law Criminal Law Labour Law in H.K. Hong Kong Taxation Law Social Religious & Work Ethno-cultural Studies Social Sciences Moral Education Health Education Civic Education Training of Trainers Management Human Office Resources Management Management Supervisory Management Worker Training Technical Training Computer Chef Carpentry Mechanical Technology Training Engineering Driving Applied Sciences Biomedicine Civil Environmental Human Information Engineering Science Geography Management (Ecology) 79 in Part I. These subject items were selected because of their popularity in Hong Kong. Many ACE institutions offer programs about them. "China Studies" was added because of an anticipated increase in contacts with China in the run-up to 1997. In the questionnaire, these 45 subject items were systematically distributed throughout Part I of the questionnaire. For example, Item 1 was Chinese Language, Item 2 Home Gardening, Item 3 China Trade... Respondents were invited to use a five-point Likert scale (Wiersma, 1986) to show the extent to which interest in each subject (e.g. Information Management) will decrease strongly, decrease, remain essentially the same, increase or increase strongly. Respondents were asked to estimate the extent to which the interest (in each subject) of people staying in Hong Kong, those leaving Hong Kong temporarily or those leaving Hong Kong permanently will decrease or increase. They gave their answers by circling one of the five responses (from "decrease strongly" to "increase strongly"). Part II of the questionnaire comprised items about the processes of adult education. The 18 process items were selected because of their frequent use in ACE programs. Nine of them were methods; nine were techniques. 80 Table 2 shows all process items in Part II. Table 2 Adult Education Methods and Techniques Methods Techniques Correspondence Study Role Play Class Educational Games Exhibitions Debate Apprenticeship Simulation Tutorial Discussion group Lecture Public Education campaign Group Discussion Courses By Computer Demonstration Forum Field Trips Workshop Case Studies The 18 process items were listed as one method followed by one technique. For example, Item 1 was Correspondence study, Item 2 Role play, Item 3 Class... Respondents were asked to estimate whether the use of these methods and techniques will decrease or increase in Hong Kong generally and in their workplace. They gave their estimates by circling one of the five response categories: Decrease Strongly, Decrease, Remain Essen tially The Same, Increase, Increase Strongly. 81 Conceptual Bases for Sociodemographic Questions Part III of the questionnaire consisted of questions concerning the sociodemographic characteristics of respondents. Questions concerned the age, sex and educational qualifications of respondents. Respondents were also asked if ACE is their primary or secondary professional concern or if they are primarily a planner or teacher. These categories were derived from Boshier's (1985) Conceptual Framework for Analyzing the Training of Trainers and Adult Educators. Respondents were also asked to report how many years they had worked full or part-time in ACE. They were also asked to rank (in order of importance to them) the four purposes of adult education in Boshier's (1985) model. The most important was to be ranked "1," the next "2," and so on. Table 3 shows the categories derived from the Boshier's model. The remaining parts of the questionnaires dealt with the political orientations of respondents. At the beginning, respondents were asked to estimate the percentages of residents who will (i) leave Hong Kong permanently; (ii) leave Hong Kong temporarily and (iii) stay in Hong Kong in the run-up to 1997. Then they answered questions about their political orientations. Questions 82 Table 3 Dimensions shaping the sociodemographic profile of respondents Primacy of Role Role occupied Purposes in ACE in ACE of ACE Primary Planner Social professional integration concern Social responsibility Social change Secondary Teacher Technical professional competence concern were derived from Almond and Verba's (1963) classification of cognitive, affective and evaluative orientations towards the political context. Table 4 shows categories from Almond and Verba's model and questions associated with each orientation. Respondents were also asked to indicate the extent to which they were involved in China trade, China exchanges or any projects with China. Finally, they were asked about their own intentions: to stay, leave Hong Kong temporarily or leave permanently in the run-up to 1997. The cognitive orientation questions were cast on a 83 Table 4 List of questions for examining the political orientations of respondents Political Questions Orientations on I. Cognitive - know about the functions of the Executive and Legislative Councils in Hong Kong - know about the difference between HK-style capitalism & "Chinese" (i.e. PRC) socialism - know why and how the Sino-British Joint Declaration was signed - know about the content of the Sino-British Joint Declaration - know about the content of the Draft Basic Law II. Affective - feel about the performance of the present Governor since he assumed office - feel about what has happened as a result of the signing of the Sino-British Joint Declaration - feel about the proposal for direct elections for Legislative Council in 1988 - feel about the current proposal for direct elections for Legislative Council in 1991 - feel about the democracy movement in Hong Kong III. Evaluative - feel about what will happen in 1997 and beyond - feel the extent to which you are able to control the forces that shape the nature of your life - tell the extent to which the Legislative Councillors can represent your interests - be a registered voter or not - have ever given opinions or suggestions on the Draft Basic Law to the Basic Law Consulative Committee - going to give opinions or suggestions on the Draft Basic Law to the Basic Law Consultative Committee or not 84 seven-point scale. For example, No. 3 asked "How much do you feel you know about the differences between Hong Kong-style capitalism and 'Chinese' (i.e. PRC) social ism?" Respondents would check: An Immense Amount, Very Much, Much, A Moderate Amount, Little, Very Little, Almost Nothing. For questions which concerned affective orientation, respondents also picked an answer from seven choices. The present Governor's performance was rated from Very Good, Good, Satisfactory, No Feeling One Way Or The Other, Fair, Poor to Very Poor. In other questions, feelings about people and things were indicated as: Extremely Optimis tic/Positive, Very Optimistic/Positive, Slightly Opti mistic/Positive, No Feeling One Way Or The Other, Slightly Pessimistic/Negative, Very Pessimistic/Negative, Ex tremely Pessimistic/Negative. For questions on evaluative orientation, respon dents were asked to choose one out of six responses. These responses could be: Very Much Control/Involved, Much Control/Involved, Moderate Control/Moderately Involved, Little Control/Involved, Very Little Control/Involved, No Control/Involved At All. They said yes or no in alternative questions. The complete questionnaire is contained in Appendix A. 85 Languages and Forms The questionnaire had a Chinese translation to cater to those respondents whose English might not be good enough to comprehend the questions. Besides, it was possible for respondents to get tired at a particular item after they had responded to several questions already. Therefore, a second form of the original questionnaire (called Form A) was developed. It was named Form B. The order of all content and process items from Form A was reversed in Form B. For example, Chinese Language was Item 1 and Information Management Item 45 in Form A. But in Form B, Information Management became Item 1 and Chinese Language Item 45. The same procedure was applied to process items too. Correspondence Study was Item 1 and Case Studies Item 18 in Part II of Form A. But in Form B, Case Studies became Item 1 and Correspondence Study Item 18. Both Form A and Form B had their Chinese versions. The Chinese Form A was named Form C and Chinese Form B named Form D. Table 5 shows the four forms in two sets that vary by item order and language. Prior to conducting a statistical analysis, all the "reversed" items (Form B) were "flipped" so as to become compatible with the item order in Form A. 86 Table 5 The four forms of questionnaires in two sets that vary by item order and language English Chinese Items Form A Form C 1-H5 printed in printed in blue colour yellow colour Items Form B Form D 45-1 printed in printed in gold colour pink colour Pilot Study While the first draft of the questionnaire was being written, it was taken to Charles Wong and N.P. Lee to check the content validity. In this context, content validity concerned the extent to which the "content" and "process" items adequately represented the field of adult/continuing education in Hong Kong. Charles Wong and N.P. Lee were experienced man and woman adult educators from Hong Kong. They had worked as programers for years in Extramural Studies Departments of The Chinese University of Hong Kong and University 87 of Hong Kong. To check the content validity, they had to determine whether some items were redundant or if other important ones had been left out. After their examination, all items were confirmed except for some minor changes. For example, some items were renamed for clarity and the "Applied Science" category was strength ened. The amended draft English and its Chinese version were taken to Miranda Wong to check the translation. Miranda Wong, formerly a senior social worker from Hong Kong, was a graduate of the UBC Diploma in Adult Education. She was invited to determine the extent to which the Chinese translation corresponded with the English version. Moreover, she examined questions in Part III, to see if, from her perspective as a Hong Kong woman, they "made sense." After her examination, the Chinese draft was revised. Some questions were rephrased for brevity and some response categories reworded for better understanding. The final draft was completed in late March, 1989. Later the "reverse-order-numbering" in Forms C and D would have to be compatible with Forms A and B. Different colours were used to alert the researcher to the "item-numbering" issue. 88 The four questionnaires: English (Forms A and B) Chinese (Forms C and D) are contained in Appendix A. 89 CHAPTER VII METHOD Population The population surveyed consisted of members of the Hong Kong Association for Continuing Education (HKACE), graduates and students of three rounds of the UBC Diploma in Adult Education (in Hong Kong) and heads of some major adult education institutions. Just over 170 subjects were selected and each of them was mailed a copy of the questionnaire. A dime was thrown to decide who was the first one to get which form of the questionnaire. "Heads" stood for Form A and "tails" for Form B. As a result, the first name appearing on the membership list of the HKACE got Form B, the second one Form A and the third one Form B again. Those who had Chinese names and addresses on the list got Chinese versions. But Chinese Forms C and D were also alternated amongst the "Chinese names" on the list. (At the time of the study, the author was Honorary Secretary of the HKACE and thus personally acquainted with about 3 0 percent of the members. She thus knew whether English or Chinese would be the preferred language in many cases.) The same procedure was applied to the three rounds of Diploma graduates and students too. But they all got the English versions because they were assumed to understand the 90 questions well. Heads of adult education institutions got alternate forms A and B (English) as well. Mailing of Questionnaires All questionnaires were air-mailed from Vancouver to Hong Kong in mid-April, 1989. A cover letter explaining the purposes of the survey and a leaflet introducing the UBC diploma and graduate programs in adult education were enclosed with each copy of the questionnaire. (Folk wisdom claimed that Hong Kong people are more inclined to complete a questionnaire if it is accompanied by a souvenir or additional information of interest.) Respondents were asked to return the completed questionnaire in the self-addressed envelope attached. The questionnaire did not bear the name of the respondent but a number was coded on its back page. It was explained in the cover letter that the code number was used to record how many questionnaires had been sent and to count how many people did not reply. Follow-up letters would then be sent to non-respondents. Replies were anonymous and kept in strict confidence. A due date was not specified but a prompt reply encouraged. The return address was the mail-box of the HKACE in Hong Kong. Christine Yeung of the HKACE helped collect the questionnaires as they were returned. 91 Data Processing and Analysis Three data cards, each containing 80 columns, were used for each respondent. The first three columns of Card One recorded respondents' identification. The first re spondent was coded as "001." The fourth column marked respondents' gender, "1" for male and "2" for female. The fifth and sixth columns recorded respondents' actual age. Suppose that respondent 088 was aged 35, thus "35" was printed on columns 5 and 6. Columns 7 to 20 were used to record respondents' socioeconomic data and columns 21 to 44 respondents' answers to political orientation ques tions. The score of the first subject item "Chinese Language: staying" was recorded on Column 51. Remember that Forms B and D had their item order "reversed." While "Information Management: staying" was the first item in Forms B and D, a step was added to avoid complication. The score of "Chinese Language: staying" in every Form B and D was printed on Column 51 as well. Then the score of "Chinese Language: leaving temporarily" was put down on Column 52 and "Chinese Language: leaving permanently" on Column 53. If respondents did not circle a response category, then the column was marked "0." If the "Decrease" category was circled, then "2" was printed on the column. Coding of responses to subject items continued until Column 79. Column 80 was marked "1" for Card One. 92 The first six columns of Card Two were left blank. Then scores of subject items continued to be marked on Column 7 up to Column 79. Column 80 of Card Two was marked "2.11 Then the first six columns of Card Three were left blank again and scores of subject items continued to be marked on column 7. The first process score: "Correspondence Study: in Hong Kong" was marked on Column 44 of Card Three. The same arrangement was made to record the score of "Cor respondence Study: in Hong Kong" in every Form B and D in Column 44 even though the first process item in Forms B and D was "Case Studies: in Hong Kong." The score of the last process item "Case Studies: in my workplace" was recorded on Column 79 and column 80 was marked "3" for Card Three. A word-processing program was used to transmit data from coding forms to a computer. Besides the data file, a control file was written up to prepare data for SPSS (Statistical Package for the Social Sciences) analysis. The control file told SPSS to identify columns for variables, declare missing values, and define value labels. A "Compute" command was used to average the scores for each content/process category. For example, scores of Chinese Language, English Language, Japanese Language, French Language and German Language (for people staying) were added together and divided by five in order to yield 93 a total score of "LANGSTAY," meaning "Languages for people staying." As well, a total score for "MTHTOTWP" (Methods used in my workplace) was produced by summing over the responses for Correspondence Study, Class, Exhibitions, Apprenticeship, Tutorial Discussion Group, Public Educa tion Campaigns, Courses By Computer, Forum and Workshop, and dividing them by nine. Moreover, a "compute" command was made to form age groups (e.g. 20 to 30, 30 to 40) based upon respondents' actual age. "Frequencies" were calculated for sex, age groups, professional concern, role, educational qualifications, overseas degrees, "original disciplines" and respondents' "emigration intentions." Such a procedure was done in order to check if there was any error in coding the data. For example, if "3" appeared in the "sex" column, it would indicate a problem because only "1" was used for male and "2" for female. "Crosstabs" were executed to calculate the percent ages of men and women in such variables as age, profes sional concern, educational qualification, overseas degrees, "original discipline" and "emigration inten tions." Tabulations from "frequencies" and "crosstabs" were used to identify the sociodemographic characteris tics of respondents. A "means" command was executed in order to examine the differences between men and women on 94 each content and process variable (e.g. Business & Commerce) for each kind of person (staying, leaving tem porarily or leaving permanently). Tabulations from the "descriptives" command which yielded mean scores of each content and process category for the three kinds of people were used to outline a map of what the respondents thought about the anticipated changes in content and processes of ACE in Hong Kong. "Correlation" was used to check the internal consistency of each content and process category for the three kinds of people. A "t-test" was calculated to measure the test-retest reliability of the instrument. "Correlation" commands were again executed to check if there was any significant association between respon dents' sociodemographic characteristics (e.g. age, professional concern, etc.), their estimates concerning other residents' "emigration intentions" and their estimates concerning changes in ACE. "Correlation" was also used to examine the association between respondents' political orientations, their "emigration intentions" and their estimates concerning the changes in ACE. The intercorrelations between respondents' political orien tations and their ranking of the purposes of adult education were also examined. A "means" command was executed in order to find out 95 the mean percentages of people who were thought to be staying, leaving temporarily or leaving permanently with respect to the respondents' own "emigration intentions." Moreover, such a command was also used to compute the mean degree of involvement in China projects (ranging from "not involved at all" to "very much involved") for each kind of respondent who was intending to stay, leave temporar ily or leave permanently. In all above operations, the significance level was set at .05 for one-tailed or .01 for two-tailed tests. 96 CHAPTER VIII RESULTS Effect of History Campbell and Stanley (1963) in their influential analysis of quasi and true experimental designs listed a variety of factors that threaten the internal validity of experimental research. Although this was an ex post facto study, the data collection process was possibly distorted by the intrusion of the massacre in Tiananmen Square, China on June 4, 1989. Following the death of the former Secretary General of the Communist Party, Hu Yao-bang, in mid-April, 1989, massive student movements demanding democracy and oppos ing corruption were active in Beijing and other major cities of China. Students who pleaded for the democratization of China got support from people in Hong Kong. Pro-democracy advocates in Hong Kong echoed their counterparts' appeal for an open and democratic China. Some had even gone to Beijing to visit students on a hunger strike at the Tiananmen Square. Newspapers reported that about 1.5 million people marched in Hong Kong on Sunday, May 28, 1989 in support of the students at the Tiananmen Square (see Appendix B). Tension between the Chinese government and students sitting in the Tiananmen 97 Square grew in late May, 1989. Martial law was declared and students were ordered to withdraw from the Square. Before dawn on June 4, the government resolved to clamp down on this "chaos" by force of arms. Newspapers reported that numerous students and citizens in Beijing were massacred by troops (see Appendix C) . June 4 became a black day for Chinese people. The June 4 Incident had a great impact upon Hong Kong. Newspapers reported that hundreds of thousands of people rallied to voice grief and indignation and a general strike was called for to mourn the dead in Beijing (see Appendix D) . Many Hong Kong people were panic-stricken and shocked by the atrocities of the Communists. The stock market plunged and thousands of people withdrew money from Chinese banks (see Appendix E) . It appeared that confidence in the future of Hong Kong dropped sharply after June 4. It was suggested that many who planned to stay in Hong Kong had changed their minds and would leave. Some sped up their applications for emigration. Business got hurt badly. The June 4 Incident appeared to affect the psychology of Hong Kong people and threatened the internal validity of this study. By June 4, 1989, 50 questionnaires had been returned. After June 4, another 72 completed ques tionnaires were secured. Thus, before detailing any 98 results, we should explain what was done to examine the extent to which the June 4 Incident influenced the results of this survey. A procedure was added to distinguish between questionnaires returned before or after June 4. Questionnaires received after June 4 were marked "After June 4" on their back page. As noted above, respondents were being asked to make estimates concerning the number (in percentage) of people who would stay in Hong Kong after 1997, leave temporarily (between 1989 and 1997) or leave permanently. Prior to June 4, the phenonmenon under investigation (probability of leaving) was reasonably stable. But, after June 4, it appeared that many people would be revising their estimates. Reliability In early August, 28 questionnaires (seven for each form and each language) were sent to a group of instructors at the Caritas Centre for Further and Adult Education--Caine Road Day and Night Schools. This was the first step of a test/retest procedure to check the reliability of the instrument. Reliability comprises "stability, dependability and predictability" (Kerlinger, 1973, p.443). An instrument is reliable if it can produce consistent results over repeated measurements. The two Principals of the Schools, Yat-bong Ma and Augustine 99 Chong, distributed and collected the questionnaires. Questionnaires returned were anonymous but marked with the date and place of birth of the respondents. Three weeks later, respondents were asked to do the retest. Two copies from the test and retest bearing the same date and place of birth were matched together. One subject did not do the retest. Therefore, 27 valid cases were used for computing the results. Reliability Results The reliability of the instrument was checked by examining its internal consistency and stability-over time. Internal Consistency The internal consistency of each content and process category, and respondents' political orientations was measured by calculating coefficient alpha for each item using all valid cases. Recall that the "Languages" score was derived by summing over responses concerning all five languages (Chinese, English, Japanese, French and German) and dividing by five to yield a scale score. Coefficient alpha examines intercorrelations within the scale. Those studying Business could reasonably be expected to be interested in all five facets of the "Business & Commerce" category (e.g. Accounting & Auditing, International Trade,...) but the same assump-100 tion could not be made for languages. For example, someone interested in English would not necessarily be also interested in Japanese, French or German. Thus it was no surprise to find that the strongest alpha scores (denoting considerable internal consistency) were on "Management" (mean alpha .43) and "Law" (mean alpha .41). The smallest, but still acceptable, mean alphas were on "Languages" ( .27) and "Hobbies" ( .28). It was also notable that respondents made more internally consistent estimates for people thought to be staying than for those in the two "leaving" categories. Indeed, the highest alpha coefficients were those associated with estimates about people thought to be staying. The two exceptions to this concerned "Hobbies" and "Technical Training." Test/Retest Responses gathered from the "test" and "retest" done by the 27 subjects at Caritas Schools were correlated. The right-hand column in Table 8 shows the mean stability-over-time coefficients for all categories. Most of these Pearson product-moment correlation coefficients were regarded as high (greater than .70). All but one coefficient (Applied Sciences: staying) were over .50. The instrument was stable over time. 101 Response Rate October 20 was the cut-off date for collecting returned questionnaires for the main study. Until then, 95 subjects had returned their questionnaires. The response rate was 56 percent. There were 24 copies of English Form A returned, 22 of English Form B, 24 of Chinese Form C and 25 of Chinese Form D. Data from these 95 subjects and another 27 from the reliability procedure yielded a total of 122. Characteristics of Respondents The population consisted of 83 men and 39 women adult educators. Table 6 shows their socio-demographic char acteristics. Many (37.7 percent) were in their 30s. The majority (59.2 percent) regarded adult/continuing educa tion as their secondary professional concern. Almost half of them (49.5 percent) claimed to be a planner and the other half (50.5 percent) a teacher. Most of them said they had a university education. Many (34.4 percent) had university degrees plus additional qualifications. Among those who had overseas degrees, a slight majority (25.7 percent) got them from the United Kingdom while 20 percent were from Canada and another 20 percent from Taiwan. More than a quarter (27.1 percent) of these adult educators regarded Business and Commerce as their original disci pline while 23.7 percent had Arts & Humanities. About 102 Table 6 Socio-demographic characteristics of respondents Characteristics Men Women Total n % n % n % Age 83 68.0 20-30 23 27.7 30-W 32 38.6 40-50 19 22.9 50-60 8 9.6 60 and up  1.2 Professional concern 81 67.5 Primary 31 38.3 Secondary 50 61.7 Role 71 66.4 Planner 41 57.7 Teacher 30 42.3 Educational qualifiication 83 68.0 Form 5 — Form 6 or 7 2 2.4 Post-secondary 13 15.7 Part of a university degree 8 9.6 University degree overseas "' 19 22.9 University degree from HK 11 13.3 University degree & add qual 30 36.1 Overseas degrees 26 74.3 United Kingdom 6 23.1 Canada 6 23.1 United States 4 15.4 Australia & New Zealand 1 3.8 Taiwan 5 19.2 Japan — — Southeast Asia 1 3.8 Europe 1 3.8 China 2 7.7 Original Discipline 81 68.6 Arts & Humanities 17 21.0 Natural Sciences 8 9.9 Social Sciences 9 11.1 Business & Commerce 24 29.6 Technical Education 8 9.9 Education 11 13.6 Medical & Health 1 1.2 Computer — — Home Economics — — Theology 1 1.2 Trade Union Education 1 1.2 Law  1.2 In the run-up to 1997, intending to: 80 67.2 stay in Hong Kong 31 38.8 leave temporarily 1 38.8 leave permanently 18 225 39 32.0 122 100.0 15 38.5 38 31.1 14 35.9 46 37.7 8 20.5 27 22.1 2 5.1 10 8.2 1 .8 x2 = 2.23 sig= .69 39 32.5 120 100.0 18 46.2 49 40.8 21 53.8 71 59.2 x2= .39 sig= .53 36 33.6 107 100.0 12 33.3 53 49.5 24 66.7 54 50.5 x2=4.76 sig= .03 39 32.0 122 100.0 3 7.7 3 2.5 3 7.7 5 4.1 8 20.5 21 17.2 3 7.7 11 9.0 6 15.4 25 20.5 4 10.3 15 12.3 12 30.8 42 34.4 x2=9.81 sig= .13 9 25.7 35 100.0 3 33.3 9 25.7 1 11.1 7 20.0 2 22.2 6 17.1 _ 1 2.9 2 22.2 7 20.0 1 11.1 1 2.9 1 2.9 1 2.9 2 5.7 x2=5.58 sig= .69 37 31.4 118 100.0 11 29.7 28 23.7 _ „ 8 6.8 8 21.6 17 14.4 8 21.6 32 27.1 _ _ 8 6.8 6 16.2 17 14.4 1 2.7 2 1.7 1 2.7 1 .8 1 2.7 1 .8 1 2.7 2 1.7 „ 1 .8 1 .8 x2=16.74 sig= .12 39 32.8 119 100.0 24 61.5 55 46.2 10 25.6 41 34.5 5 12.8 23 19.3 x2=5.53 sig= .06 103 half of the respondents (46.2 percent) claimed that they were intending to stay in Hong Kong in the run-up to 1997. Overall, the respondents were young university graduates taking adult/continuing education as their second profession. Table 6 shows the ways in which the 83 men and 39 women surveyed differed with respect to their socio-demographic characteristics. There were no significant differences except with respect to the "professional role" (planner or teacher) occupied. Of the 83 men nearly 60 percent were planners, whereas of the 39 women, only one third were planners. Thus, the women were significantly more inclined to be teachers than were the men (X2=4.76, p< .03). Men's and Women's Estimates and Their Political Orientations Table 7 shows the respondents' estimates concerning how the interests in ACE vary for people staying, leaving temporarily or leaving permanently. It also shows what respondents said about whether the use of methods or techniques will increase or decrease. Table 7 also shows mean "political orientation" scores for the 122 respon dents . Regarding the content and processes, three was considered the midpoint of the scale ("Remain Essentially The Same"). Means greater than three indicated that 104 Table 7 Men and Women adult educators' estimates concerning changes in adult/continuing education (ACE) and their political orientations CONTENT n MEN X S.D. n WOMEN X S.D. F SigF Languages staying= 82 3.27 .42 38 3.24 .61 .14 .71 leaving temporarily= 82 3.30 .40 38 3.31 .68 .02 .90 leaving permanently= 82 3.34 .51 38 3.36 .68 .02 .88 Hobbies staying= 80 3.05 .30 38 3.18 50 2.91 .09 leaving temporarily^ 80 3.11 .45 38 3.19 .62 .66 .42 leaving permanently= 80 3.17 .55 38 3.44 .72 5.04 .03 China Studies staying= 81 3.45 .52 38 3.61 .60 2.17 .14 leaving temporarily = 81 2.81 .52 38 3.02 .60 3.82 .05 leaving permanently= 81 2.59 .68 38 2.85 .66 3.95 .05 Business & Commerce staying= 80 3.41 .59 38 3.53 .70 .97 .33 leaving temporarily= 80 3.30 .59 38 3.37 .68 .31 .58 leaving permanently= 79 3.33 .69 38 3.45 .79 .69 .41 Law staying= 80 3.30 59 38 3.46 .72 1.69 .20 leaving temporarily= 79 '' 2.75 59 38 2.99 52 4.80 .03 leaving permanently= 80 2.55 .72 38 2.70 59 1.26 .26 Social Sciences staying= 80 3.24 .58 39 3.45 .49 3.93 .05 leaving temporarily = 79 2.87 .52 39 3.06 .40 3.91 .05 leaving permanently= 79 2.82 .60 39 2.92 50 .84 .36 Management staying= 79 3.46 .61 38 3.70 .72 3.65 .06 leaving temporarily = 79 3.05 .55 28 3.16 .62 .90 .34 leaving permanently= 79 3.06 .64 38 3.05 .75 .14 .91 Technical Training staying= 79 3.31 .44 38 3.47 58 2.98 .09 leaving temporarily= 79 3.63 .50 38 3.55 .64 .51 .48 leaving permanently= 79 3.80 59 38 3.81 .86 .01 .94 Applied Sciences staying= 82 3.18 .44 37 3.36 .57 3.46 .07 leaving temporarily= 80 3.18 .45 37 3.21 .45 .16 .69 leaving permanently= 80 3.21 53 37 3.20 52 .05 .94 PROCESSES Methods In H.K. generally= 81 3.61 .44 38 3.69 .61 .68 .41 In my workplace = 81 3.43 .41 38 3.52 .40 1.48 .23 Techniques In H.K. generally= 80 3.49 .51 37 3.54 59 .23 .64 In my workplace = 80 3.37 .47 37 3.43 .44 .42 .52 POLITICAL ORIENTAT IONS Cognitive Orientations 82 4.51 .92 Affective Orientations 83 4.65 .78 Evaluative Orientations 83 2.67 .47 39 4.02 .73 8.51 .01 39 4.40 .69 2.86 .09 38 2.50 .48 3.26 .07 105 respondents thought that interests will increase, or vice versa. S.D.'s were consistent across all content and process categories. Table 7 shows how men and women surveyed differed in their estimates concerning changes in ACE as far as the three types of people: staying, leaving HK temporarily or leaving permanently were concerned. There were no significant differences except for a few "Content" categories. Firstly, with respect to the "Hobbies: leaving permanently," the mean score of the 80 men surveyed was 3.17 while the 38 women respondents produced a mean score of 3.44. Thus, the women were significantly more inclined than men (F=5.04, p< .03) to think that the interests in "Hobbies" of people leaving permanently will increase. Secondly, regarding the "China Studies: leaving temporarily," the 81 men surveyed yielded a mean score of 2.81 whereas for the 38 women respondents, it was 3.02. The men were more inclined than women (F=3.82, p< .05) to believe that the interests in "China Studies" of people leaving temporarily will decrease. Again, for the "China Studies: leaving permanently," the mean score of the 81 men surveyed was 2.59 and that of the 38 women 2.85. Thus, the men were more inclined than women (F=3.95, p< .05) to think that the interests in "China Studies" of people leaving permanently will decrease. 106 Thirdly, concerning the "Law: leaving temporarily," the mean score of the 79 men surveyed was 2.75 and that of the 38 women 2.99. Thus, the men were more inclined than women (F=4.80, p< .03) to believe that the "Law" interests of people leaving temporarily will decrease. Fourthly, with respect to the "Social Sciences: staying," the 80 men surveyed produced a mean score of 3.24 and the 39 women surveyed 3.45. Thus, the women were more inclined than men (F=3.93, p< .05) to think that the interests in "Social Sciences" of people staying will increase. Again, for the "Social Sciences: leaving temporarily,11 the mean score of the 79 men surveyed was 2.87 and that of the 39 women 3.06. Thus, the men were more inclined than women (F=3.91, p< .05) to believe that the interests in "Social Sciences" of people leaving temporarily will decrease. Regarding the political orientations, cognitive orientation refers to how much the respondents knew about the people and things involved in the political process. The "Cognitive orientation" score was calculated by adding up responses to questions No. 2, No. 3, No. 4, No. 5 and No. 6 in Part III and averaging them (dividing the total by five). All these questions had a seven-point response scale: An Immense Amount, Very Much, Much, A Moderate Amount, Little, Very Little, Almost Nothing. "An Immense amount" was coded 7 and "Almost Nothing" 1. 107 Thus, four was considered the midpoint of the score (A Moderate Amount). Means were above four. This indicated that respondents claimed to know "a moderate amount" to "much" about people and things in the political process. But the men claimed to be more inclined than women (F=8.51, p< .01) to know more about people and things in the political process. There was greater disagreement among men (S.D.= .92) than was among women (S.D.= .73). Affective orientation refers to how much the respondents favoured the people and things involved in the political process. The "Affective orientation" score was calculated by adding responses to questions No. 7, No. 8, No. 9, No. 10 and No. 11 in Part III and averaging them (dividing the total by five). All these questions had a seven-point response scale: Very good/Extremely Optimistic/Positive, Good/Very Optimistic/Positive, Satisfactory/Slightly Optimistic/Positive, No Feeling One Way Or The Other, Fair/Slightly Pessimistic/Negative, Poor/Very Pessimistic/Negative, Very Poor/Extremely Pessimistic/Negative. Thus, four was considered the mid point of the score (No Feeling One Way Or The Other) . Means were above four. This indicated that respondents were more inclined to favour the people and things involved in the political process. Evaluative orientation refers to how far the 108 respondents involved themselves in the political process. Involvement could range from active participation to passive subordination. The "Evaluative orientation" score was calculated by adding up responses to questions No. 12, No. 13, No. 15, No. 16, No. 17 and No. 18 in Part III and averaging them (dividing the total by six) . Question No. 12 had a seven-point response scale, No. 13 and No. 15 had 6 but No. 16, No. 17 and No. 18 had 2. The highest point of scale in average was 4.2 and 2.6 was considered the mid-point. There were no significant differences between men and women on the Affective and Evaluative orientation scores. S.D. 's were consistent in the Affective and Evaluative orientations. Purpose One Recall that the first purpose of the study was to obtain estimates concerning the anticipated changes in the content and processes of ACE in the run-up to 1997 (see the highlighted part of Figure 4) . Table 8 shows respondents' estimates concerning changes in ACE, their political orientations and rankings concerning the purposes of adult education. Regarding the content, all category scores (e.g. Languages) were calculated by adding up the response scores from each subject item, e.g. "Chinese Language," "English Language," "Japanese Language," "French Language" and "German Language" as per 109 B INDEPENDENT VARIABLES Respondents Socio-demographic Characteristics * Sex *Age *Professional concern in ACE *Role in ACE •Educational qualifications *Views concerning purposes of Ad Ed Political Orientations *Affective "Cognitive "Evaluative Emigration intentions •Staying in HK •Leaving HK temporarily •Leaving HK permanently DEPENDENT VARIABLES I I Dimension 1 Emigration intentions of HK population •Staying in HK •Leaving HK temporarily •Leaving HK permanently Dimension 2 Contents of ACE Processes of ACE •Methods •Techniques Figure 4, Respondents' estimates concerning the anticipated changes in the content and processes of ACE (1990-1997). 110 Table 8 Respondents' estimates concerning changes in ACE, their political orientations and ranking of purposes of adult education Anticipated changes in Possible range Observed range X S.D. n Internal consistency Reliability test/retest CONTENT Languages staying= leaving temporarily= leaving permanently= 1.0-5.0 1.0-5.0 1.0-5.0 2.0-4.8 1.2-4.6 1.0-4.8 3.26 3.30 3.35 .49 50 57 120 120 120 .28 .27 .27 .76 .73 .90 Hobbies staying= leaving temporarily= leaving permanently= 1.0-5.0 1.0-5.0 1.0-5.0 2.0-4.4 1.2-4.2 1.2-1.8 3.09 3.14 3.25 .38 51 .62 118 118 118 .25 .29 .29 51 .65 .75 China Studies staying= leaving temporarily= leaving permanently= 1.0-5.0 1.0-5.0 1.0-5.0 1.8-4.6 1.2-4.2 1.0-4.4 350 2.88 2.67 55 .56 .68 119 119 119 .31 .26 .29 .75 .67 .85 Business & Commerce staying= leaving temporarily= leaving permanently= 1.0-5.0 1.0-5.0 1.0-5.0 1.6-5.0 1.2-4.6 1.2-5.0 3.45 3.32 3.37 .63 .62 .72 118 118 117 .45 .38 .39 .83 .79 .77 Law staying = leaving temporarily= leaving permanently= 1.0-5.0 , 1.0-5.0 1.0-5.0 1.8-5.0 1.2-4.0 1.2-4.8 3.35 2.83 2.60 .64 .58 .68 118 117 118 .48 .39 .37 .63 .59 .71 Social Sciences staying= leaving temporarily= leaving permanently= 1.0-5.0 1.0-5.0 1.0-5.0 1.4-4.6 1.6-4.4 1.4-4.6 3.31 2.94 2.85 .56 .49 51 119 118 118 .42 .29 .27 .76 56 .67 Management staying= leaving temporarily= leaving permanently= 1.0-5.0 1.0-5.0 1.0-5.0 2.0-5.0 1.2-4.4 1.0-4.8 3.54 3.09 3.06 .66 .57 .67 117 117 117 51 .39 .33 .54 .72 .65 Technical Training staying= leaving temporarily= leaving permanently= 1.0-5.0 1.0-5.0 1.0-5.0 1.6-5.0 2.0-4.8 1.4-5.0 3.36 3.61 3.80 50 55 .69 117 117 117 .33 .36 .39 .83 .82 .81 Applied Sciences staying = leaving temporarily= leaving permanently= 1.0-5.0 1.0-5.0 1.0-5.0 1.6-5.0 1.(5-4.4 1.2-4.4 3.23 3.19 3.21 .49 .45 52 119 117 117 .34 .21 .16 .44 59 .76 PROCESSES Methods In H.K. generally= In my workplace = 1.0-5.0 1.0-5.0 1.2-4.8 2.2-4.6 3.64 3.46 50 .41 119 119 .32 .23 .66 .70 Techniques In H.K. generally= In my workplace = 1.0-5.0 1.0-5.0 1.2-4.9 2.1-4.9 3.51 3.39 53 .46 117 117 .39 .33 .71 .74 POLITICAL ORIENTATIONS Cognitive Orientations Affective Orientations Evaluative Orientations 1.0-6.8 1.0-7.0 1.0-4.2 2.6-6.8 2.8-6.8 1.5-3.8 4.35 4.57 2.61 .89 .76 .48 121 122 121 .45 .20 .20 .85 53 52 PURPOSES OF AD ED Social integration Social responsibility Social change Technical competence 1.0-4.0 1.0-4.0 1.0-4.0 1.0-4.0 1.0-4.0 1.0-4.0 1.0-4.0 1.0-4.0 2.80 2.66 2.93 2.43 1.11 1.11 1.19 1.28 122 122 122 122 - -Ill the three categories of people: staying, leaving tempo rarily or leaving permanently and averaging them (dividing the total by five). Respondents estimated that the interests of people staying will be inclined to increase in all subjects, but more strongly in Management (X=3.54, S.D. = .66); China Studies (X=3.50, S.D.= .55); Business & Commerce (X=3.45, S.D.= .63). They guessed that the interests of people leaving temporarily will increase strongly in Technical Training (X=3.61, S.D.= .55), but decrease in Law (X=2.83, S.D. = .58) ; China Studies (X=2.88, S.D.=.56) and Social Sciences (X=2.94, S.D.= .49) . Again, respondents believed that the interests of people leaving permanently will increase strongly in Technical Training (X=3.80, S.D.= .69) but decrease strongly in Law (X=2.60, S.D.= .68) and China Studies (X=2.67, S.D.= .68). S.D.'s were consistent in all content categories. Regarding the processes, the "Method" scores were calculated by adding up the response scores from "Correspondence Study," "Class," "Exhibitions," "Appren ticeship," "Tutorial Discussion Group," "Public Education Campaign," "Courses By Computer," "Forum" and "Workshop," and averaging them (dividing the total by nine). The "Technique" scores were calculated by adding up the response scores from "Role Play," "Educational Games," 112 "Debate," "Simulation," "Lecture," "Group Discussion," "Demonstration," "Field Trips" and "Case Studies," and averaging them (dividing the total by nine) . Respondents thought that there will be an overall increase in the use of methods and techniques in Hong Kong generally and in the workplace. But the increase in HK generally will be greater than that in the workplace. S.D.'s were consistent across all methods and techniques. Respondents claimed that the use of adult education methods such as "Courses By Computer" will strongly increase in Hong Kong generally (X=4.10, S.D.= .65) and in the workplace (X=4.02, S.D.= .62). They believed that the use of "Apprenticeship" will remain essentially the same in the workplace (X=3.00, S.D.= .79). Respondents thought that compared to most of the adult education methods, the use of "Class," which is a traditional instructional method, will tend to increase in Hong Kong generally (X=3.52, S.D.= .75) and in the workplace (X=3.44, S.D.= .72). Moreover, they claimed that there will be an increase in the use of "Lecture," a traditional instructional technique, in Hong Kong generally (X=3.46, S.D.= .74) and in the workplace (X=3.35, S.D.= .64). Concerning the political orientations, respondents claimed to know "a moderate amount" to "much"(X=4.35, 113 S.D.= .89) about the people and things involved in the political process. They tended to be "happy" with (X=4.57, S.D.= .76) these people and things but did not participate actively (X=2.61, S.D.= .48) in the political process. The spread of scores in the Evaluative orientation (S.D.= .48) was less than that in the Cognitive (S.D.= .89) and Affective (S.D.= .76) ones. With respect to the purposes of adult education, one meant first priority, two second, three third and four fourth. Technical competence (X=2.43, S.D.=1.28) was ranked first; Social responsibility (X=2.66, S.D.=1.11) second; Social integration (X=2.80, S.D.=1.11) third and Social change (X=2.93, S.D.=1.19) fourth. There was greater disagreement concerning Technical competence (S.D.=1.28) than in the other three purposes. Purpose Two Recall that the second purpose of the study was to establish the extent to which sociodemographic variables of respondents explained variance in estimates (see the highlighted part of Figure 5). Table 9 shows the inter-correlations between respondents' sociodemographic characteristics and their estimates concerning changes in ACE. Those coefficients marked with one or two asterisks were signficantly associated. There was a significant association between Age and 114 INDEPENDENT VARIABLES B C DEPENDENT VARIABLES Respondents Socio-demographic Characteristics * Sex *Age •Professional concern in ACE *Role in ACE •Educational qualifications •Views concerning purposes of Ad Ed Political Orientations •Affective •Cognitive •Evaluative Emigration intentions •Staying in HK •Leaving HK temporarily •Leaving HK permanently Dimension 1 Emigration intentions of HK population •Staying in HK •Leaving HK temporarily •Leaving HK permanently Dimension 2 Contents of ACE Processes of ACE •Methods •Techniques Figure 5. Respondents' socio-demographic characteristics and their estimates concerning the anticipated changes in ACE (1990-1997). 115 Table 9 Intercorrelations between respondents' socio-demographic characteristics, their leaving or staving estimates and estimates concerning  changes in ACE Correlations Socio-demographic Characteristics Leaving or Staying Estimates Age Professional Years Years Education Permanent Temporary Staying concern full-time part-time qualification % % % CONTENT Total "Languages" scores stay in H.K. = leave HK temporarily = leave HK permanently = .25' -.02 -.00 .02 .01 .03 .27 .09 .09 .11 .03 .08 .22* .03 -.08 -.17 -.16 -.06 -.04 .03 -.04 .13 .09 .07 Total "Hobbies" scores stay in H.K. = leave HK temporarily= leave HK permanently= .27* .15 .15 .14 .12 .13 .01 -.06 -.02 -.01 .24 .24 .12 .08 .05 .08 -.15 -.17 -.14 -.12 -.07 .03 .15 .14 Total "China Studies" scores stay in H.K. = leave H.K. temporarily= leave H.K. permanently= .13 .02 .02 .06 -.07 -.09 .27 -.09 -.05 .19 .25 .22 .28" .17 .18 -.22* -.26* -.16 -.17 -.05 .01 .23* .17 .08 Total "Business & Commerce" scores stay in H.K. = leave H.K. temporarily= leave H.K. permanently= .24' .15 .08 -.01 .02 .11 .29 .08 .03 -.03 .15 .15 .28' .23* .12 -.30" -.16 -.07 -.14 .02 .05 .27* .08 .02 Total "Law" scores stay in H.K= leave H.K. temporarily = leave H.K. permanently= .00 -.06 -.08 -.01 .06 .09 .27 -.07 -.11 -.03 .18 .17 .12 .19 .14 -.21 -.16 .02 -.14 -.03 .01 .22 .10 -.03 Total "Social Sciences" scores stay in H.K. = leave H.K. temporarily= leave H.K. permanently= .16 .20 .15 .07 .06 .04 .27 -.04 -.02 .05 .14 .11 .16 .11 .07 -.26* -.13 .01 -.04 .10 .02 .20 .01 -.03 Total "Management" scores stay in H.K. = leave H.K. temporarily= leave H.K. permanently = .18 .10 .07 -.01 .03 .09 .21 -.03 .00 -.10 .15 .23 .25* .11 .08 -.23' -.10 -.10 -.02 .09 .09 .16 -.00 -.01 Total "Technical Training" scores stay in H.K. = leave H.K. temporarily= leave H.K. permanently= .17 .13 .09 -.01 .06 .10 .07 .01 .07 -.15 -.06 .08 .16 .04 .00 -.13 -.18 -.09 .02 .05 -.07 .07 .10 .11 Total "Applied Sciences" scores stay in H.K. = leave H.K. temporarily3 leave H.K. permanently= .16 .20 .10 -.04 -.04 -.05 .20 .10 .09 -.12 .09 .04 .19 .05 .02 -.17 -.25* -.07 .04 .07 -.03 .10 .11 .06 PROCESSES Total "Methods" scores In H.K. generally= In my workplace = -.03 .02 -.01 -.05 .08 .04 .09 .08 .29" .31" -.22 -.05 -.11 .05 .19 .01 Total Techniques" scores In H.K. generally3 In my workplace = -.07 -.02 -.00 -.01 .14 .03 -.09 -.02 .28* .24* -.20 -.05 .03 .13 .11 -.04 POLITICAL ORIENTATIONS Cognitive Orientations Affective Orientations Evaluative Orientations .11 .02 .16 .06 .03 .07 .28 .20 .22 .19 .03 .18 .21* .03 .14 -.03 .02 -.03 -.17 .03 -.11 .15 -.02 .12 Note. Years full time and Years part-time mean the number of years respondents spent in serving ACE. Permanent %, Temporary % and Staying % mean the estimated percentages of residents who will leave or stay in HK in the run-up to 1997. *p< .05, "p< .01. 116 Business & Commerce scores for people staying (r=.24, p< .05); between Educational qualification and Languages for people staying (r=.22, p< .05); between Educational qualification and Business & Commerce for people leaving temporarily (r=.23, p< .05). The association between Educational qualification and the estimated use of tech niques in the workplace (r=.24, p< .05) was regarded as significant too. In the political orientations, there was a significant association between Educational qualifica tion and Cognitive orientation (r=.21, p< .05). There was a significant association between the estimated percentage of residents leaving permanently and interest in China Studies for people staying (r=-.22, p< .05); between the estimated percentage of residents leaving permanently and interest in Management for people staying (r=-.23, p< .05). Again, the association between the estimated percentage of residents staying and China Studies for people staying (r=.23, p< .05) was significant as well. Compared to younger respondents, the older ones thought that for people staying, the interest in "Languages" (r=.25, p< .05) and "Hobbies" (r=.27, p< .05) would increase significantly more than that in other programs. Respondents with higher educational qualifi cations made significantly higher estimates concerning 117 the perceived interest in Languages (r=.22 for those staying), in China Studies (r=.28 for those staying), in Business & Commerce (r=.28 for those staying and r=.23 for those leaving temporarily), in Management (r=.25 for those staying) than did those with lower educational qualifi cations. There was a moderate association between the "leaving permanently percentage" estimates and the interest in China Studies for people leaving temporarily (r=-.26, p< .05) and for those staying (r=-.22, p< .05); between "leaving permanently percentage" estimates and the interest in Social Sciences for people staying (r=-.26, p< .05); between "leaving permanently percent age" estimates and the interest in Applied Sciences for people leaving temporarily (r=-.25, p< .05) . The associa tion between "staying percentage" estimates and the interest in Business & Commerce for people staying (r=.27, p< .05) was regarded as moderate too. Respondents with higher educational qualifications thought that there would be a significantly larger increase in interest (for people staying) in "China Studies" (r=.28, p< .01) and "Business & Commerce" (r=.28, p< .05) than did respondents with lower educa tional qualifications. The better educated respondents believed that there would be a significantly larger increase in the use of 118 adult education methods (between now and 1997) than did the lesser educated respondents. This applied to methods as used "in Hong Kong generally" (r=.29, p< .01) and "in the workplace" (r=.31, p< .01) , and techniques as used "in Hong Kong generally" (r=.28, p< .05). There was a strong association between the "leaving permanently percentage" estimates and the interest in Business & Commerce for people staying (r=-.30, p< .01). Respondents thought that when more people were going to leave Hong Kong permanently, there would be a signifi cantly larger decrease in interest (for people staying) in "Business & Commerce." Purpose Three Recall that the third purpose of the study was to establish the extent to which the political orientations of respondents explained variance in estimates (see highlighted part of Figure 6) . Table 10 shows the inter correlations between respondents' political orientations (Almond & Verba's "Cognitive, "Affective," and "Evalu ative" orientations) and their estimates concerning the changes in ACE. There was no significant association between variables although the correlations between "Evaluative orientation" and "Languages" and "Hobbies" (for people staying) approached significance. 119 INDEPENDENT VARIABLES Respondents Socio-demographic Characteristics * Sex *Age •Professional concern in ACE •Role in ACE •Educational qualifications •Views concerning purposes of Ad Ed Political Orientations •Affective •Cognitive •Evaluative Emigration intentions •Staying in HK •Leaving HK temporarily •Leaving HK permanently B C DEPENDENT VARIABLES I Dimension 1 Emigration intentions of HK population •Staying in HK •Leaving HK temporarily •Leaving HK permanently Dimension 2 Contents of ACE Processes of ACE •Methods •Techniques Figure 6. Respondents' political orientations and their estimates concerning the anticipated changes in ACE (1990-1997). 120 Table 10 Intercorrelations between respondents' political orienations, their emigration intentions and estimates concerning changes in ACE Correlations Cognitive Affective Evaluative Emigration Orientations Orientations Orientations Intentions CONTENT Languages staying= Business & Commerce staying= Law staying Social Sciences staying Management staying Technical Training staying Applied Sciences staying= .10 .13 .20 -.15 leaving temporarily= .14 - .05 .04 - .13 leaving permanently = 2 .05 .14 -.15 Hobbies staying= .02 .07 .21 -.16 leaving temporarily3 .15 .04 .12 - .10 leaving permanently = 1 .04 .10  .12 China Studies staying= .10 .04 .12 .01 leaving temporarily= - .01 - .04 .01 - .03 leaving permanently = .06 .04 .04 .01 .04 -.00 .09 -.12 leaving temporarily = .00 - .06 .03 - .01 leaving permanently = 4 -.06 .04 -.0.01 -.13 -.04 -.09 leaving temporarily = .05 - .04 - .08 .08 leaving permanently = 6 -.01 .01 .10 .06 -.01 .04 -.10 leaving temporarily = .01 - .04 .00 - .03 leaving permanently3 .13 .03 .11  -01 .04 .01 -.01 -.11 leaving temporarily3 - .05 .01 - .11 - -01 leaving permanently3 .02 .07 -.02 -.05 ..08 .04 .05 -.13 leaving temporarily3 .02 - .04 - .01 - .13 leaving permanently3 .11 -04 .06 -.19 -.03 .03 .04 -.17 leaving temporarily3 .02 - .09 .03 - .14 leaving permanently3 8  .03 .06  .14 PROCESSES Methods In H.K. generally3 - .01 In my workplace =  .02 Techniques In H.K. generally3 - .02 In my workplace =  .07 - .06 .03 .01 - .02 .10 - .12 - .03 .05 - .07 - .02 .08  .13 121 Respondents' Political Orientations and Their Views Concerning the Purposes of Adult Education In a separate procedure we also examined how the political orientations of respondents would associate with their views concerning the purposes of adult education. Table 11 shows the intercorrelations between respondents' ranking of the purposes of adult education and their political orientations. Table 11 Intercorrelations between respondents' ranking of purposes of adult education and their political orientations Correlations Social Social Social Technical Cognitive Affective Evaluative integration responsibility change competence orientations orientations orientations PURPOSES OF AD ED Social integration 1.00 Social responsibility - .17 1.00 Social change - .25" .03 1.00 Technical competence .08 -.24** -.36** 1.00 POLITICAL ORIENTATIONS Cognitive orientations .10 -.01 -.10 .13 1.00 Affective orientations .09 .18 -.06 .04 .49** 1.00 Evaluative orientations -.02 .02 .03 .05 .55** 31" 1.00 ** r > .22, p< .01 There was no significant association between vari ables where their coefficients are not flagged with an 122 asterisk. Those marked with two asterisks were significant at the .01 level. Readers should recall (see the highlighted part of Figure 7) that this part of the analysis was designed to examine relationships between respondents' political orientations (as concerned with Almond and Verba's model) and their views concerning the purposes of adult education (as construed by Boshier). Thus we were primarily interested in the correlations shown in the twelve cells on the lower left corner of the matrix (Table 11) . There were no significant differences although the correlation between Almond and Verba's "Affective orientation" and "Social responsibility" scores ap proached significance. Purpose Four The fourth purpose of the study was to examine the relationship between the respondents' "emigration inten tions" (staying^ leaving Hong Kong temporarily or leaving permanently in the run-up to 1997) and their estimates con cerning changes in ACE (see highlighted part of Figure 8) . The right hand column of Table 10 shows the intercorre lations between respondents' "emigration intentions" and their estimates concerning the changes in ACE. There was no significant association between variables. 123 INDEPENDENT VARIABLES Respondents Socio-demographic Characteristics * Sex *Age •Professional concern in ACE *Role in ACE •Educational qualifications •Views concerning purposes of Ad Ed Political Orientations •Affective •Cognitive •Evaluative Emigration intentions •Staying in HK •Leaving HK temporarily •Leaving HK permanently B C DEPENDENT VARIABLES I Dimension 1 Emigration intentions of HK population •Staying in HK •Leaving HK temporarily •Leaving HK permanently Dimension 2 Contents of ACE Processes of ACE •Methods •Techniques Figure 7. Respondents' political orientations and their views concerning education. the purposes of adult 124 INDEPENDENT VARIABLES Respondents Socio-demographic Characteristics * Sex *Age •Professional concern in ACE •Role in ACE •Educational qualifications •Views concerning purposes of Ad Ed Political Orientations •Affective •Cognitive •Evaluative Emigration intentions •Staying in HK •Leaving HK temporarily •Leaving HK permanently B C DEPENDENT VARIABLES I Dimension 1 Emigration intentions of HK population •Staying in HK •Leaving HK temporarily •Leaving HK permanently Dimension 2 Contents of ACE Processes of ACE •Methods •Techniques Figure 8. Respondents' emigration intentions and their estimates concerning the anticipated changes in ACE (1990-1997). 125 Respondents' Intentions and Their Estimates Concerning Others' Intentions In a separate procedure we also examined the relationships between respondents' "emigration inten tions" (staying, leaving Hong Kong temporarily or leaving permanently) and their estimates of the overall popula tion's "emigration intentions" (see the highlighted part of Figure 9). Table 12 shows what respondents said about their "emigration intentions" concerning stay ing or leaving and their estimates concerning percentages of residents who will also be staying, leaving temporarily or permanently. Table 12 Respondents' intentions concerning leaving or staving in Hong Kong and their estimates concerning other residents' intentions In the run-up to Respondents' estimates concerning percentages of residents who will 1997, respondents intending to: stay in H.K. leave H.K. leave H.K. temporarily permanently n X S.D. X S.D. X S.D. stay in H.K. 52 46 66.44 22.73 1734 13.41 16.73 12.49 leave H.K. temporarily 39 35 61.62 25.06 19.26 15.24 18.74 16.05 leave H.K. permanently 22 19 64.86 16.16 16.09 10.66 17.96 11.10 F= 51 F= .42 F= .25 sigF= .59 sigF= .66 sigF= .77 For the 52 respondents who intended to stay, the mean percentage of residents whom they guessed will be staying too was 66.44 (S.D.=22.73) . For the 126' INDEPENDENT VARIABLES Respondents Socio-demographic Characteristics * Sex *Age •Professional concern in ACE •Role in ACE •Educational qualifications •Views concerning purposes of Ad Ed Political Orientations •Affective •Cognitive •Evaluative Emigration intentions •Staying in HK •Leaving HK temporarily •Leaving HK permanently B C DEPENDENT VARIABLES I Dimension 1 Emigration intentions of HK population •Staying in HK •Leaving HK temporarily •Leaving HK permanently Dimension 2 Contents of ACE Processes of ACE •Methods •Techniques Figure 9, Respondents' emigration intentions and their estimates concerning others' intentions. 127 39 respondents who intended to leave temporarily, the mean percentage of people staying they guessed was 61.62 (S.D.=25.06). For the 22 respondents who intended to leave permanently, the mean percentage (staying) esti mated was 64.86 (S.D.=16.16). But the respondents' own intentions had no effect on their estimates concerning the percentages of other people who will be staying (F= .52, p< .59), leaving temporarily (F= .42, p< .66), or leaving permanently (F= .25, p< .77). Respondents' Intentions and Involvement in China Proj ects Table 13 shows the relationships between respon dents' "emigration intentions": staying, leaving Hong Kong temporarily or leaving permanently and their involvement in China projects. Table 13 Respondents' intentions concerning leaving or staving in Hong Kong and the extent of their involvement in China projects In the run-up to Extent of respondents' involvement in China trade, China exchanges 1997, surveyed respondents intending to: or any projects with China Range X S.D. n stay in Hong Kong 1.0-6.0 2.58 1.56 55 leave Hong Kong temporarily 1.0-6.0 2.76 1.43 41 leave Hong Kong permanently 1.0-6.0 2.35 1.37 23 Three point five (3.5) was considered the midpoint. The three means were below 3.5. Thus, respondents tended to be "little" to "moderately" involved in China projects. 128 Their intentions concerning staying or leaving (F= .57) had no effect on their involvement in China projects. June 4 Incident and Respondents' Estimates Table 14 shows the relationships between the date respondents returned questionnaires and their estimates concerning other residents' intentions of staying or leaving. Table 14 Respondents' estimates concerning other residents' intentions in the run-up to 1997 and the date they returned  questionnaires Respondents estimated Date questionnaires returned that in the run-up to 1997 ' Before June 4 After June 4 (n=48) (n=68) X S.D. X S.D. F S'gF % of residents will stay in H.K. 66.88 21.10 62.90 22.84 .91 .34 % of residents will leave H.K. temporarily 14.88 11.75 20.03 14.12 4.35 .04 % of residents will leave H.K. permanently 18.04 14.98 17.22 12.15 .11 .75 For the purpose of this analysis the 48 before and the 68 after June 4 "staying" estimates were compared and F-ratios calculated; the before and after "leaving temporarily" estimates were compared as were the "leaving permanently" ones. The June 4 Incident (F=4.35, p< .04) had a 129 significant effect on "leaving temporarily" estimates. But for our 122 respondents, it appeared that the June 4 Incident had little or no impact on "staying" or "leaving permanently" estimates but resulted in a significant upward shift in estimates concerning the percentage who would leave temporarily. 130 CHAPTER IX SUMMARY/ CONCLUSIONS, DISCUSSION Readers are reminded that, from one perspective, this was a phenomenological study. Although there is an "objective" reality emerging in Hong Kong, no legal or political documents or processes can disguise the fact that "reality" is what it is construed to be. This is particularly the case in Hong Kong where "confidence" is so vulnerable to the predations of rumour, superstition and tradition. There was much discussion about who would leave and estimates concerning these matters became part of the "reality" shaping Hong Kong in the run-up to 1997. Indeed, it is no exaggeration to claim that what people think is "reality" is more important than any "objective" analysis. Recall that this study was couched within a phenomenological frame of reference. It did not claim to measure any "objective reality" concerning the future of adult education in Hong Kong but relied on subjective estimates concerning the future content and processes of adult education. The respondents were all adult educators. While 50 percent claim they will leave Hong Kong before 1997, others will likely occupy leadership positions where they will greatly influence the content 131 and processes of ACE. There is a good chance that what these adult educators think may happen will actually come about. Thus, their views concerning the future of ACE in Hong Kong will be an important determinant of the future. Summary Recall that 122 respondents completed question naires. There were altogether 83 men and 39 women adult educators. Overall, they were young university graduates taking ACE as their second profession. Of the 83 men nearly 60 percent were planners, whereas of the 39 women, only one third were planners. The women were significantly more inclined to be teachers than were the men. Recall that there were four purposes of the study: 1. To obtain estimates concerning the anticipated changes in the content and processes of ACE in the run up to 1997. 2 . To establish the extent to which socio-demographic characteristics of respondents explained variance in es timates (concerning the anticipated changes in the content and processes of ACE). 3. To establish the extent to which political orientations of respondents explained variance in esti mates (concerning the anticipated changes in the content and processes of ACE). 4. To examine the relationship between the respon-132 dents* "emigration intentions" and their estimates (concerning the anticipated changes in the content and processes of ACE). With respect to purpose one, respondents claimed that in the run-up to 1997, people staying will become more interested in "Management," "China Studies," and "Busi ness & Commerce" programs. They believed that people leaving Hong Kong temporarily or leaving permanently will be greatly interested in "Technical Training" programs but their interest in "Law," "China Studies" and "Social Sciences" programs will decrease. Respondents thought that in the run-up to 1997, the use of adult education methods and techniques will increase in Hong Kong generally and in the workplace. They claimed that there will a larger increase in the use of "Courses By Computer" in Hong Kong generally and in the workplace. With respect to purpose two, which concerned the relationship between the respondents' socio-demographic characteristics and their estimates, the results were mixed. In general, respondents' "professional concern" the years they worked as full-time or part-time adult educators were not related to content or process estimates. The following statistically significant relationships were present: 133 Age: Compared to younger respondents, the older ones thought that for people staying, the interest in "Languages," "Hobbies" and "Business & Commerce" programs would increase significantly more than that in other programs. Educational Qualification; Respondents with higher educational qualifications believed that there would be a significantly larger increase in interest (for people staying) in "Languages," "China Studies," "Business & Commerce" and "Management" programs than did respondents with lower educational qualifications. The better educated respondents believed that there would be a significantly larger increase in the use of adult education methods and techniques (between now and 1997) than did the lesser educated respondents. This applied to methods and techniques as used "in Hong Kong generally" and "in the workplace." The third purpose concerned the relationship between respondents' political orientations and estimates con cerning the anticipated changes in ACE. It was found that there was no significant association between respondents' political orientations and their estimates. But in another analysis, respondents were found to know "a moderate amount" to "much" about people and things 134 in the political process. They were found to be "happy" with the political process. However, they did not participate actively in it. With regard to purpose four, which concerned the relationship between respondents' "emigration inten tions" and their estimates concerning the anticipated changes in ACE, it was found that there was no significant association between their "emigration intentions" and estimates. The June 4 Incident had a significant effect on respondents' estimates concerning the percentage of those "leaving temporarily." Respondents who completed the questionnaire after the June 4 Incident made higher estimates concerning those who would leave Hong Kong temporarily than did those who completed it prior to the June 4. Conclusions Hong Kong is widely known as "jitters city" and because of the volatile political situation and great anxiety evoked by the June 4 Incident in China, there is no guarantee that estimates concerning the future (made in 1989) will hold true by 1997. Despite this possible limitation, the respondents occupy positions from where they can influence the future, and it is possible to interpret our results from a variety of perspectives. 135 With respect to purpose one, which was to obtain estimates concerning the anticipated changes in the content and processes of ACE, we may conclude that there would not be any drastic change in the content of ACE in the run-up to 1997 as anticipated by our adult educators. The structural-functional approach, which has influenced the content of ACE for years, will continue to guide the development of the field. Estimates gathered from these adult educators indicated that there might be a larger increase in interest in "Languages," "China Studies," "Business & Commerce," "Law," "Management," and "Techni cal Training" programs, particularly for people staying. Adult educators believed that people who will be staying in the run-up to 1997 will rely on these programs to cope with the unique situation of Hong Kong. All these programs will continue to prepare skilled manpower and entrepre neurs for promoting economic prosperity in Hong Kong. They will help mobilize human resources for a full development of capitalism in the run-up to 1997. Pragmatism in education will prevail as long as the structural-functional approach takes the lead. "China Studies" programs would be increased in order to meet the learning needs of people staying. More close contacts with China could be anticipated when 1997 approaches. But on the other hand, "Law" programs seemed not useful for those 136 leaving Hong Kong permanently. Our survey showed that with respect to those staying and leaving, the biggest mean dif ferences were on "China Studies" and "Law." Respondents tended to think that there will be a larger increase in interest in "China Studies" (for those staying) (X=3.50) but interest in "Law" (for those leaving permanently) (X=2.60) would tend to decrease. This result is not a surprise but does suggest that, between now and 1997, educators will be dealing with learners motivated by concerns shaped as much by "emigration intentions" as the usual program considerations. This is a modern example of the historic Hong Kong preoccupation with the instrumental functions of education. Moreover, program planners will likely take into account the "emigration in tentions" of learners when making program decisions. "Functional" types of programs will likely continue to dominate the content of ACE in the run-up to 1997. Regarding the processes of ACE, it appears that there will be an overall increase in the use of adult education methods and techniques. In order to maintain the "com petitiveness" of Hong Kong amongst other Southeast Asian countries, resources should be utilized to support an educated population. Effective ACE programs should be organized for adults to help them fight with job obsoles cence. If Hong Kong should remain a valuable asset to 137 China, there must be a great deal of ACE programs to increase the "productivity" of Hong Kong. Moreover, facing the challenges of a growing population and advanced technology in the 90*s, the city requires more provision of ACE programs to satisfy a vast pool of educational needs. This was possibly why respondents anticipated a larger increase in "Courses By Computer" in Hong Kong generally and in the workplace. They probably believe that such a method would break through the traditional con straints in program delivery and provide more access to learning opportunities for adults. With respect to purpose two, which was to establish the extent to which socio-demographic variables of respondents explained varienace in estimates, we may conclude that only educational qualification appeared to be related to estimates. Our results showed that age was significantly associated with only three out of 31 possible estimates. It had almost no impact on estimates. Whether the respondents considered ACE to be their primary or secondary professional concern was not significantly related to any of the estimates. Nor was the number of years working as a full or part-time adult educator related to any estimates. Only "highest educational qualifica tion" appeared to be significantly associated with esti mates. In general, those with higher education qualifi-138 cations thought that there would be a larger increase in interest (particularly in "China Studies" and "Business & Commerce") than did those with lower educational quali fications. Maybe those with university degrees are more committed to education and aware of the future integration with China than those with lower educational qualifica tions. They probably think that these programs ("China Studies" and "Business & Commerce") are central to "mainland relations" and maintenance of Hong Kong as a major financial^ centre in Asia. Regarding the processes of ACE, adult educators with higher educational qualifications anticipated that the use of adult education methods and techniques will increase (generally and in the workplace) . As more adult educators have professional training, they will know the significance of using suitable methods and techniques to facilitate adult learning. There will be further development in educational technology in order to cater to the educational needs of a growing population in the 90s. The Open Learning Institute of Hong Kong is a good example. It tries to surpass the hurdles of classroom teaching. It uses all kinds of methods and techniques in distance education. The use of Cable TV in the 90s will provide more educational opportunities to all sectors of 139 the population. Other ACE agencies may have to look for human and material resources to devise methods and techniques for their programs. Funds are required for building premises, language laboratories, workshops, and convention rooms. Adult educators need to conduct research on adult teaching and program planning. To assist these ACE agencies, the government will have to formulate a comprehensive policy for adult education in the 90s. With respect to purpose three, which was to establish the extent to which political orientations of respondents explained variance in estimates, we may conclude that the respondents* political orientations were not signifi cantly related to their estimates. But it appeared that adult educators with higher educational qualifications tended to know more about the people and things involved in the political process than those with lower educational qualf ications. The more education they had, the more they were concerned with the political process. But most of them did not actively participate in the political process. Although there was no significant association between adult educators' political orientations and their views concerning the purposes of adult education, these adult educators were found to be quite conservative concerning the purposes of adult education. They viewed 140 "Technical competence" as the most and "Social change" the least important purpose of adult education. They were more concerned with helping adult learners acquire knowledge and skills rather than changing the society. To them, ACE is more of a profession than a social movement. As 1997 approaches, many Hong Kong people are demanding democracy and promoting civic education. But adult educators are less interested in playing a leadership role in social change than providing the "service" of ACE to learners. People are used to a stable society and they hope to maintain the status quo. They will take years to develop a sense of social transformation. With respect to purpose four, which was to examine the relationship between the respondents' "emigration intentions" and their estimates , we may conclude that respondents' "emigration intentions" did not influence their estimates. Whether the respondents would like to leave Hong Kong temporarily, leave permanently, or stay, was not related to their views concerning the anticipated changes in the content and processes of ACE in the run up to 1997. Discussion Going beyond the present data, there is a priori evidence for the fact that people are going to be very interested in technical or vocational programs that can 141 enhance their employability or emigration prospects. As 1997 approaches, those intending to stay seem to be relying on ACE programs to deal with uncertainties in future. However, the future shape of ACE that our adult educators anticipated will be still couched within the context of "maintenance learning." The emphasis on vocational or technical programs is a kind of reactive rather than proactive action designed to cope with the unique situation of Hong Kong. Hong Kong survives mainly because of economic prosperity and people looked to "Business & Commerce" and "Technical Training" programs for knowledge and skills in developing the economy. For those who are leaving Hong Kong temporarily or perma nently, "Technical Training" programs are thought to be instruments which solve daily problems of emigrants. Those leaving do not appear to be looking for long-term alter natives but just responding to immediate problems. If the content of ACE in the run-up to 1997 is to cater to the learning needs of people who are driven by "emigration intentions," there could be an imbalance in the development of the field. While program planners think that only technical or vocational programs may be well received by adult learners, they are encouraged to organize more programs in this type than in others. As the content of ACE is overwhelmed by the "functional" type 142 of programs, ACE in Hong Kong will only serve to maintain the status quo and fail to give people new ideas as to what they can cope with the changes in the run-up to 1997. Although Hong Kong has become a "jitters city," people might need "innovative learning" (Botkin, El-mandjra & Malitza, 1979) to deal with challenges. They should make forecasts and long-term planning. This is what anticipation in "innovative learning" means. The other element of "innovative learning" is participation. In this regard, remember that our adult educators' political orientations were not significantly associated with their estimates. Nor was there evidence that our respondents participated in the political process. Nor did they view "Social change" as the most important purpose of adult education. Most of them had university degrees and are thus part of the "elite." They did not seem to be very interested in the social implications of adult education. Nevertheless the June 4 Incident aroused Hong Kong people's civic consciousness and stimulated active political participation in the community. If ACE in Hong Kong is to help people cope with social change in the run up to 1997, especially after the Basic Law was promulgated and a pattern of political development has been outlined, there is a sense in which Hong Kong will depend upon adult educators to take leadership and make ACE a social 143 movement. Our survey showed that respondents' educational qualifications had an impact upon their estimates concerning the anticipated changes in ACE. The more educated people will possibly look for opportunities in ACE in order to maintain a better quality of life than the less educated. This thinking coincides with a popular belief in adult education that the more educated benefit more from ACE than uneducated people. If our survey could only gather data from the well-educated educators, we should admit this was one of the limitations of our survey. In order to enlarge the scope of inquiry, a survey to find out what the adult learners thought about the changes in the content and processes of ACE should be conducted. When we compare the results of the surveys of the adult educators on the one hand and that of the adult learners on the other, we may secure a comprehensive estimate of anticipated changes in ACE. However, results of our present survey represented the views of those who will occupy future leadership positions in ACE. If we have to look after the learning needs of all sectors of the population, then the Open Learning Institute will be a good indicator of whether ACE is important to the educationally disadvantaged. The large line-ups for OLI enrollment forms suggested that there are 144 many people with lower education qualifications (or no education at all) are eager for access to higher education. Nobody doubts the importance of ACE to Hong Kong, but there must be ways to help people overcome barriers to participation. Although it is too early to assess the work by OLI, it has created new hopes for people and, in a way, democratizes education. As Hong Kong faces 1997, and the need to maintain traditional freedoms, we have to make our society open. A prerequisite or corollary for an open society is to open education to all. An open society ensures the freedom for people to move in and out of it. The "confidence problem" has driven local people to go away while some "brain-drainers" have come back to work. By 1990, there was a shortage of skilled labourers and the government allowed employers to import labourers from abroad. There is a free flow of people and they look to ACE for skills training, immigrant integration, and emigrant re-integration and idea-generation. The content of ACE will become pluralistic in order to cater to the educational needs of the new and old populations. As long as people are allowed to stay or go away freely, new social problems will emerge. There must be ways to reconcile the differences between residents and non-residents, the older and younger generations. Topics like community development, family 145 education, and environmental protection could become new emphases in ACE. Programs in "Social Work," "Religious & Ethno-cultural Studies," and "Environmental Science (Ecology)" will be increased in the content of ACE, which is currently overwhelmed by technical and vocational subjects. These programs are not directly related to the economy but are central to social development. ACE should have a "balanced" content which helps people build a better society and progress within it. Many adult educators in Hong Kong often think of what they can do for China. They feel the need to contribute their expertise in ACE to the mainland. There is a huge population in China awaiting education. To provide education for a great number of people depends upon effective and efficient methodologies in program deliv ery. Few would underestimate the impact of science upon the development of ACE. Hong Kong occupies a favourable position in promoting education because of its access to advanced educational techology and receptivity to new program ideas. In recent years, much has been done to improve the processes of ACE. Apart from the "hardware" of the processes, which refers to devices such as computers, cable TV and audio-visual aids, there has been considerable attention given to the "software" of the processes, i.e. programming methods and techniques of in-146 struction. As a result of professional training, adult educators in Hong Kong are getting more interested in making program planning and instruction "scientific." This means that they look for rational models for systematic planning and instructional techniques devel oped on the basis of tested knowledge derived from research. They know that only when "hardware" facilities are compatible with the methods and techniques, then effective instruction can take place. The knowledge and experiences that adult educators in Hong Kong possess are useful for their counterparts in China. Besides, there has recently been a trend that many ACE agencies in Hong Kong offer programs in co-operation with overseas educational institutions. On the one hand, these programs provide educational opportunities to some Hong Kong people who are unable to study overseas. On the other hand, they will also give access to learners coming from China in future. Such a mode of program delivery, based upon the Hong Kong experience, can be adapted in China. It is important for local adult educators to maintain a "Hong Kong identity" in the run-up to 1997. This will help strengthen the independent status of professional associations of ACE in Hong Kong. There is a possiblity that a professional association, like The Hong Kong 147 Association for Continuing Education, will become one of the many regional associations of China, e.g. similar to the ones in Shanghai or Shenzhen. If Hong Kong can retain autonomy after 1997, the Association may still make its own decisions about its objectives and activities. Then it can continue to represent the professional interests of local adult educators and improve the status of ACE. To work for a "Hong Kong identity" requires commitment and deliberate efforts of practitioners. On the one hand, they should consolidate themselves by divesting prejudices and biases, and work for the interests of adult learners and the well-being of the Hong Kong society. On the other hand, while Hong Kong flaunts as an "international city," local practitioners are obliged to strengthen the ties with the international adult education community. To keep abreast with new developments in research and practice is the re sponsibility of professional associations. If profes sional associations can demonstrate that they know what the learning needs of adult learners are and how these needs can be met satisfactorily, then they may have a better position to remain independent after 1997. While people are still in great anxiety because of the June 4 Incident, there is much that civic education can do to help them cope with the situation. People's reactions toward the democracy movement in China before 148 and after June 4 did tell the world that Hong Kong citizens could unite together for combating social injustice and working towards democracy. Their concern for the political development in China was not merely because they were Chinese but also they believed that what had happened in China could occur in Hong Kong. This empathy has driven the politically apathetic Hong Kong people to come together to discuss what their society should be like in the run-up to 1997. After June 4, the worry about future has stimulated people, regardless of sex, age, occupation, income and educational qualification, to hold forums and seminars at schools, parks, T.V. and radio stations, and on newspapers. In the search for the meaning of democracy, people have undergone a learning process that is self-directed, while having political leaders, community workers and continuing educators acting as facilitators. This kind of learning experience enriches the scope of ACE, which is no longer confined to institutional-based programs. Civic education will continue to be one important aspect of ACE in the run-up to 1997. Overall, the future development of ACE will be woven into the sociopolitical progress in Hong Kong. Even though the future of Hong Kong will much be influenced by the policy of China, what people think about the reality will certainly determine their way of life. If people have 149 confidence in future, then many will stay and they look to ACE as a means to maintain the status quo. But if the majority are pessimistic with the HKSAR and leave Hong Kong permanently, then there will be drastic changes in ACE, which should be reconstructed in a way to help the staying people deal with the "disaster." 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Appendix A: Questionnaires Administered During Study of Hong Kong Adult Education Content and Processes 155 ADULT AND CONTINUING EDUCATION IN HONG KONG ( Form A ) 1 How do you think the interests of people who attend adult and continuing education will be influenced by events associated with the approach of 1997? And to what extent will people's interests be coloured by their intention to stay in Hong Kong, leave temporarily, or leave permanently? Please look at each of the subjects (e.g. Chinese language) listed below and circle a response category to indicate the extent to which you think interest in it will increase or decrease for those intending to stay in Hong Kong, leave temporarily, or leave permanently. There are no right or wrong answers and all we want is your "best estimate" concerning what will happen between now and 1997. Think of ail adult learners in general, who will attend a broad array of formal and nonformal education programs in Hong Kong, not just those whom you are personally familiar with. 1 .Chinese Language For those staying interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For those leaving, temporarily interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain E-j-jentially the same Increase Increase strongly For those leaving, permanently interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly 2.Home Gardening For those staying interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For those leaving temporarily interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For those leaving permanently interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly 3.China Trade For those staying interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For those leaving temporarily interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For those leaving permanently interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly 156 A2 4.Accounting & Auditing For those staying Decrease Decrease interest will strongly For those leavinq. Decrease Decrease temporarily interest will strongly For those leaving Decrease Decrease permanently interest will strongly Remain Essentially the same Remain Essentially the same Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase Increase Increase strongly Increase strongly Increase strongly 5.Company Law For those staying Decrease interest will strongly For those leavinq Decrease temporarily interest will strongly For those leaving Decrease permanently interest will strongly Decrease Remain Increase Increase Essentially strongly the same Decrease Remain Increase Increase Essentially strongly the same Decrease Remain Increase Increase Essentially strongly the same 6.Social Work For those staying Decrease interest will strongly For those leaving Decrease temporarily interest will strongly For those leaving Decrease permanently interest will strongly Decrease Remain Increase Increase Essentially strongly the same Decrease Remain Increase Increase Essentially strongly the same Decrease Remain Increase Increase Essentially strongly the same Training of For those staying interest will Trainers Decrease Decrease Remain Increase Increase strongly Essentially strongly the same For those leaving temporarily interest will Decrease Decrease Remain Increase Increase strongly Essentially strongly the same For those leaving permanently interest will Decrease Decrease strongly Remain Increase Increase Essentially strongly the same 157 A3 8. Computer Technology For those staying Decrease interest will strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For those leaving temporarily interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For those leaving permanently interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly Biomedicine For those staying . interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For those leaving, temporarily interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For those leaving permanently interest will Decrease bLrongly Decrease Remain Essentially Ihc same Increase •Increase strongly ICEnglish Language For those staving interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For Ihosc leaving temporarily interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For those leaving, permanently interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase 11. Hobby. Handicrafts For those staying Decrease Interest will strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For those leaving temporarily interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For those leaving permanently interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly 158 A4 12.Chinese Legal System For those staving Decrease interest will strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For those leaving temporarily interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For those leaving permanently interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly 13.Advertising/Marketing For those staying Decrease interest will strongly Decrease Remain Increase Increase Essentially strongly the same For those leaving temporarily interest will Decrease Decrease Remain Increase Increase strongly Essentially strongly the same For those leaving permanently interest will Decrease Decrease Remain Increase Increase strongly Essentially strongly the same 14.Property Law For those staying Interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For those leaving temporarily interest will For those leaving permanenlly interest will Decrease strongly Decrease strongly Decrease Decrease Remain Essentially the same Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase Increase strongly Increase strongly 15.Religious & Ethno-cultural Studies For those staying interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Increase Increase Essentially strongly the same For those leaving temporarily interest will Decrease Decrease strongly Remain Increase Increase Essentially strongly the same For those leaving permanently interest will Decrease Decrease strongly Remain Increase Increase Essentially . strongly the same 159 A5 16. Human Resour.ees For those staving interest will Management Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For those leavinq temporarily interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For those leaving permanently interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly 17. Chef Training. For those staying interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For those leavinq temporarily interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For those leavinq permanently interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly ° 18.Civil Engineering For those staying Decrease interest will strongly Decrease Remain Increase Increase Essentially strongly the same For those leavinq temporarily interest will Decrease Decrease Remain Increase Increase strongly Essentially strongly the same For those leaving, permanently interest will Decrease Decrease Remain Increase Increase strongly Essentially strongly the same 19.Japanese Language For those staying Decrease interest will strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For those leaving temporarily interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For those leavinq permanently interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly 160 A6 20.Fashion Design For those staying interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For those leaving temporarily interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For those leaving permanently interest will Decrease Decrease Remain Increase Increase strongly Essentially strongly the same ZKChinese Arts(e.g.film, theatre, painting) Decrease Remain For those staving interest will Decrease strongly Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For those leavinq temporarily interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For tho3e leaving permanently interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly 22. International Trade For those staying Decrease interest will strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For those leaving temporarily interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For those leavinq permanently interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly 23. Criminal Law For those staying interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For those leaving temporarily interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For those leaving permanently interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly 161 A7 24.Moral Education For those staving interest will Decrease Decrease strongly Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For those leaving temporarily interest will For those leaving permanently interest will Decrease strongly Decrease strongly Decrease Decrease Remain Essentially the same Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase Increase strongly Increase strongly 25.0ffice Management For those staying interest will For those leaving, temporarily interest will For those leaving permanently interest will Decrease Decrease strongly Decrease Decrease strongly Decrease Decrease strongly Remain Essentially the same Remain Essentially the same Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase Increase Increase strongly Increase strongly Increase strongly 26. Carpentry For those staying, interest will Decrease Decrease strongly Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For those leaving temporarily interest will For those Leaving, permanently interest will Decrease strongly Decrease strongly Decrease Decrease Remain Essentially the same Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase Increase strongly Increase strongly 27.Environmental Science(Ecology) For those staying, interest will For those leaving temporarily interest will Decrease strongly Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Increase Increase Essentially strongly the same Decrease Remain Increase Increase Essentially strongly the same For those leaving permanently interest will Decrease Decrease strongly Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly A8 28.French Language For those sjayjoa interest will Decrease strongly 162 Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For tho-jc leaving temporarily interest will For those leaving permanently interest will Decrease strongly Decrease strongly Decrease Decrease Remain Essentially the same Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase Increase strongly Increase strongly 29.Chinese Calligraphy For those staying Decrease interest will strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For those leaving temporarily interest will For those leaving permanently interest will Decrease strongly Decrease strongly Decrease Decrease Remain Essentially the same Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase Increase strongly Increase strongly 30.Chinese Philosophy For those slaying. Decrease Decrease interest will strongly For those leaving Decrease Decrease temporarily interest will strongly For those leaving. Decrease Decrease permanently interest will strongly Remain Essentially the same Remain Essentially the same Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase Increase Increase strongly Increase strongly Increase strongly 31 .Investment Planning For those staying Decrease Decrease interest will strongly For those leaving Decrease Decrease temporarily interest will strongly Remain Increase Increase Fssentially strongly the same Remain Increase Increase Essentially strongly the same For those leaving, permanently interest will Decrease Decrease strongly Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly A9 163 32.Labour Law in For those slaying, interest will H.K. For those leaving temporarily interest will For those leaving permanently interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Increase Increase Essentially strongly the same Decrease Decrease Remain Increase Increase strongly Essentially strongly the same Decrease Decrease Remain Increase Increase strongly Essentially strongly the same 33.Health Education For those staying Decrease interest will strongly ("or Ihose leaving Decrease temporarily interest will strongly For those leaving Decrease permanently interest will strongly Decrease Remain Increase Increase Essentially strongly the same Decrease Remain Increase Increase Essentially strongly the same Decrease Remain Increase Increase Essentially strongly the same 34.Supervisory Management For those staying Decrease interest will strongly For those leaving Decrease temporarily interest will strongly For those leaving Decrease permanently interest will strongly 35. Mechanical Engineering For those staying Decrease interest will strongly For those leaving Decrease temporarily interest will strongly For those leaving Decrease permanently interest will strongly Decrease Remain Increase Increase Essentially strongly the same Decrease Remain Increase Increase Essentially strongly the same Decrease Remain Increase Increase Essentially strongly the same Decrease Remain Increase Increase Essentially strongly the same Decrease Remain Increase Increase Essentially strongly the same Decrease Remain Increase Increase Essentially strongly the same 164 36.Human Geography For those staying interest will For those leaving temporarily interest will For those leaving permanently interest will Decrease strongly Decrease strongly Decrease strongly Decrease Decrease Decrease Remain Essentially the same Remain Essentially the same Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase Increase A10 Increase strongly Increase strongly Increase strongly 37.German Language For those staying-interest will For those leaving temporarily interest will For those leaving, permanently interest will Decrease strongly Decrease strongly Decrease strongly Decrease Decrease Decrease Remain Essentially the same Remain Essentially the same Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase Increase Increase strongly Increase strongly Increase strongly 38.Ho'bby. Photography For those staying interest will For those Iftavinn temporarily interest will For those leaving permanently interest will Decrease Decrease Remain Increase Increase strongly Essentially strongly the same Decrease Decrease Remain Increase Increase strongly Essentially strongly the same Decrease Decrease Remain Increase Increase strongly Essentially strongly the same 39.Chinese History For those staying interest will For those leaving temporarily interest will For Ihose leaving permanently interest will Decrease strongly Decrease strongly Decrease strongly Decrease Decrease Decrease Remain Essentially the same Remain Essentially the same Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase Increase Increase strongly Increase strongly Increase strongly 165 All 40.Banking Practice For those staying Decrease interest will strongly For those leaving Decrease temporarily interest will strongly For those leaving Decrease permanently interest will strongly Decrease Remain increase Increase Essentially strongly the same Decrease Remain Increase Increase . Essentially strongly the same Decrease Remain Increase Increase Essentially strongly the same 41.Hong Kong Taxation Law For those staying Decrease interest will strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For those leaving temporarily interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For those leaving permanently interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly 4Z.Civic Education For those staying interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For those leaving temporarily interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For those leaving permanently interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly 43.Worker Training For those staving interest will For those leavinq temporarily interest will Decrease strongly Decrease strongly Decrease Decrease Remain Essentially the same Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase increase strongly Increase strongly For those leaving permanently interest will Decrease Decrease Remain Increase Increase strongly Essentially strongly the same A12 166 44.Driving For those staving interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For those leaving temporarily interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For those leaving permanently interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly 45.Information Management For those stayino Decrease interest will strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For those leaving temporarily interest will Decrease Decrease Remain Increase Increase strongly Essentially strongly the same For those leaving permanently interest will Decrease Decrease Remain Increase Increase strongly Essentially strongly the same (Continued on next page) 167 A13 To what extent will use of the following adult/continuing education processes increase or decrease between now and 1997 in Hong Kong generally and in your workplace? 1. CORRESPONDENCE STUDY In Hong Kong Decrease generally will strongly Decrease Remain Increase Increase Essentially strongly the same In my workplace will Decrease Decrease Remain strongly Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly 2. ROLE PLAY In Hong Kong generally will Decrease Decrease Remain Increase Increase strongly Essentially strongly the same In my workplace will Decrease Decrease Remain Increase Increase strongly Essentially strongly the same 3. CLASS In Hong Kong generally will Decrease Decrease Remain Increase Increase strongly Essentially strongly the same In my workplace will Decrease Decrease Remain Increase Increase strongly Essentially strongly the same 4. Educational Games In Hong Kong Decrease generally will strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly In my workplace will Decrease Decrease Remain Increase Increase strongly Essentially strongly the same 5. EXHIBITIONS In Hong Kong generally will Decrease Decrease Remain Increase Increase strongly Essentially strongly the same In my workplace Will Decreasfl Decrease Remain Increase Increase strongly Essentially strongly the some A14 6. DEBATE In Hong Kong generally will Decrease strongly 168 Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly In my workplace will Decrease Decrease Remain strongly Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly 7. APPRENTICESHIP In Hong Kong generally will Decrease Decrease Remain Increase Increase strongly Essentially strongly the same In my workplace will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly 8. SIMULATION In Hong Kong generally will Decrease Decrease Remain Increase Increase strongly Essentially strongly the same In my workplace will Decrease Decrease Remain strongly Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly 9. IUrORIAL DISCUSSION GROUP In Hong Kong Decrease generally will strongly Decrease Remain Increase Increase Essentially strongly the same In my workploce will Decrease Decrease Remain strongly Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly 10.LECTURE In Hong Kong generally will Decrease Decrease Remain Increase Increase strongly Essentially strongly the same In my workplace will Decrease Decrease Remain Increase Increase strongly Essentially strongly the same 11.Public Education Campaigns In Hong Kong generally will Decrease strongly (e.g. Clean Hong Kong) Decrease Remain Increase Essentially the same Increase strongly In my workplace will Decrease Decrease Remain strongly Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly 12.GROUP DISCUSSION In Hong Kong generally will 169 Decrease Decrease Remain Increase strongly Essentially the same A15 Increase strongly In my workplace will Decrease Decrease Remain Increase - Increase strongly Essentially strongly the same 13.COURSES BY COMPUTER In Hong Kong Decrease generally will strongly Decrease Remain Increase Increase Essentially strongly the same In my workplace will Decrease Decrease Remain strongly Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly 14. DEMONSTRATION In Hong Kong generally will Decrease Decrease Remain Increase Increase strongly Essentially strongly the same In my workplace will Decrease Decrease Remain Increase Increase strongly Essentially . strongly the same 15.FORUM In Hong Kung generally will Decrease Decrease Remain Increase Increase strongly Essentially strongly the same In my workplace will Decrease Decrease Remain strongly Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly 16.FIELD TRIPS In Hong Kong generally will Decrease Decrease Remain Increase Increase strongly Essentially strongly the same In my workplace will Decrease Decrease Remain strongly Essentially the same increase Increase strongly 17. WORKSHOP In Hong Kong generally will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly In my workplace will Decrease Decrease Remain Increase Increase strongly Essentially strongly the same A16 18.CASE STUDIES In Hong Kong generally will In my workplace will Decrease strongly Decrease strongly 170 Decrease Decrease Remain Essentially the same Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase Increase strongly Increase strongly ( CONTINUED ON NEXT PAGE) 171 NOW PLEASE ANSWER THESE BACKGROUND QUESTIONS. REMEMBER—YOUR NAME IS NOT REQUIRED. What is your sex? Male j I Female | \ What is your age (in years)? 1 years In your life, do you regard adult/continuing education as being your primary (i.e. most important) or secondary professional concern? (Check only one box) ADED/CE is my PRIMARY professional concern ADED/CE is my SECONDARY professional concern What is your role in adult/continuing education? (Check only one box) Primarily a PLANNER (e.g. Administrator/Programer/Policy-maker) Primarily a TEACHER (e.g. Tutor/Lecturer/Counsellor) • • For how many years have you worked as a full or part-time adult/ continuing educator? Full time: \ I year(s) Part-time: \ I year(s) What is the highest educational qualification you hold? (Check only one box) No formal qualification , Completed Form 5 ' , Completed Form 6 or Form 7 Post-secondary or professional qualification only: (e.g. Vocational School diplomas, Business diplomas, etc.), Completed part of a university degree or diploma , Completed a university degree or diploma: Degree/diploma obtained from a university overseas Where? _______ Degree/diploma obtained from a university in H.K Completed a university degree or diploma and some additional post-secondary qualification (e.g. B.B.A. and Certified Accountant, B.A. and Dip. Ed., etc.) What do you regard as your first (or original) academic discipline or field of study (e.g. accounting, languages, sociology, education, nursing, engineering, home economics, etc.)? For you, what is the most important purpose of adult/continuing education? Rank these purposes. (For example, if you think social change is the most important, place 1 in the box, then use 2, 3, 4 for other boxes.) Social integration i i (e.g. helping people "fit in" to Hong Kong) I 1 Social responsibility  > (e.g. citizenship) I j Social change i i (e.g. for democracy) I I Technical competence i i (e.g. skills training) | I YOU'VE NEARLY FINISHED. NOW WE WANT TO ASK SOME QUESTIONS ABOUT 1997. How many current residents of Hong Kong will leave permanently, temporarily, or stay—between now and 1997? Please place your best estimates in each of the following boxes. We only want your best guess but make them add up to 100%. Between now and 1997, \ "| -% will leave permanently. Between now and 1997, t 1 % will leave temporarily. Between now and 1997, I total= 100 3 % will stay in Hong Kong. % How much do you feel you know about the functions of the Executive and Legislative Councils in Hong Kong? (Check only one box) An immense amount Very much Much A moderate amount Little Very little Almost nothing [=3 173 How much do you feel you know about the differences between Hong Kong-style capitalism and "Chinese" (i.e. PRC) socialism? (Check only one box) An immense amount j | Very much Much A moderate amount | j Little Very little Almost nothing How much do you feel you know about why and how the Sino-British Joint Declaration was signed? (Check only one box) An immense amount Very much 1 I Much | | A moderate amount Little Very little I I Almost nothing How much do you feel you know about the content of the Sino-British Joint Declaration? (Check only one box) An immense amount Very much Much A moderate amount Little Very little Almost nothing How much do you feel you know about the content of the Draft Basic Law? (Check only one box) An immense amount Very much Much A moderate amount Little Very little Almost nothing 20^ 174 7. How do you feel about the performance of the present Governor since he assumed office? (Check only one box) Very good performance I 1 Good performance I 1 Satisfactory performance I j No feeling one way or the other Fair performance | | Poor performance J | Very poor performance I I 8. How do you feel about what has happened as a result of the signing of the Sino-British Joint Declaration? (Check only one box) Extremely optimistic | { Very optimistic Slightly optimistic No feeling one way or the other 1 I Slightly pessimistic j I Very pessimistic j | Extremely pessimistic I I 9. Even though it never came to fruition, how did you feel about the proposal for direct elections for the Legislative Council in 1988? (Check only one box) Extremely positive Very positive Slightly positive No feeling one way or the other Slightly negative Very negative Extremely negative 10. How do you feel about the current proposal for direct elections for the Legislative Council in 1991? (Check only one box) Extremely positive [ 1 Very positive I I Slightly positive No feeling one way or the other I 1 Slightly negative I I Very negative 1 j Extremely negative | j 175 11. How do you feel about the democracy movement in Hong Kong? (Check only one box) Extremely positive Very positive Slightly positive No feeling one way or the other Slightly negative Very negative Extremely negative 12. Overall, how do you feel about what will happen in 1997 and beyond (Check only one box) Extremely optimistic Very optimistic Slightly optimistic No feeling one way or the other Slightly pessimistic Very pessimistic Extremely pessimistic 13. To what extent do you feel you are able to control the forces that shape the nature of your life? (Check only one box) Very much control Much control Moderate control Little control Very little control No control at all 14. To what extent are you involved in China trade, China exchanges, o any projects with China? (Check only one box) Very much involved Much involved Moderately involved Little involved Very little involved Not involved at all 22/i 176 15. To what extent can the Legislative Councillors represent your interests? They can represent my interests: (Check only one box) Very much Much CZJ Moderately CZI Little Very little Not at all 16. Are you a registered voter? No I I 17. Have you ever given any opinions or suggestions on the Draft Basic Law to the Basic Law Consultative Committee? [=• No 1 1 18. Are you going to give opinions or suggestions on the Draft Basic Law to the Basic Law Consultative Committee? No 19. In that run-up to 1997, are you intending to: (Check only one box) stay in Hong Kong leave Hong Kong temporarily leave Hong Kong permanently Thank you very much. ( Form B) 1 177 ADULT AND CONTINUING EDUCATION IN HONG KONG How do you think the interests of people who attend adult and continuing education will be influenced by events associated with the approach ot 1997? And to what extent will people's interests be coloured by their intention to stay in Hong Kong, leave temporarily, or leave permanently? Please look at each of the subjects (e.g.Management? listed below and circle a response category to indicate the extent to which you think interest in it will increase or decrease for those intending to stay in Hong Kong, leave temporarily, or leave permanently. There are no right or wrong answers and all we want is your "best estimate" concerning what will happen between now and 1997. Think of Hi adult learners in general, who will attend a broad array of formal and nonformal education programs in Hong Kong, not just those whom you are personally familiar with. 1. Information Management For those staying Decrease interest will strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For those leaving temporarily interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For those leaving permanently interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly Driving For those staying Interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For those leaving temporarily interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For those leaving permanently interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly Worker Training For those staying interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For those leaving temporarily interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For those leaving permanently interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly 178 B2 4. Civic Education For those staying interest will for those leaving temporarily interest will For those leaving permanently interest will Decrease strongly Decrease strongly Decrease strongly Decrease Decrease Decrease Remain Essentially the same Remain Essentially the same Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase Increase Increase strongly Increase strongly Increase strongly 5. Hong Kong Taxation Law For those staying Decrease Decrease interest will strongly For those leaving Decrease Decrease temporarily interest will strongly For those leaving Decrease Decrease permanently interest will strongly Remain Essentially the same Remain Essentially the same Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase Increase Increase strongly Increase strongly Increase strongly 6. Banking Practice For those staying interest will For those leaving temporarily interest will For those leaving permanently interest will Decrease strongly Decrease strongly Decrease strongly Decrease Decrease Decrease Remain Essentially the same Remain Essentially the same Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase Increase Increase strongly Increase strongly Increase strongly 7. Chinese History For those staving interest will Decrease Decrease Remain Increase Increase strongly Essentially strongly the same For those leaving temporarily interest will Decrease Decrease Remain Increase Increase strongly Essentially strongly the same For those leaving permanently interest will Decrease Decrease strongly Remain Increase Increase Essentially strongly the same 179 B3 8. Hobby Photography,.. For those staving interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For those leavinq temporarily interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For those leaving permanently interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly 9. German Language For those staying interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For those leaving temporarily interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For those leaving permanently interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly 10. Human Geography For those staying interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For those leaving temporarily interest will For those leaving permanently interest will Decrease strongly Decrease strongly Decrease Decrease Remain Essentially the same Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase Increase strongly Increase 1 1 .Mechanical Engineering For those staying Decrease Interest will strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For those leaving temporarily interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For those leavinq permanently Interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly 180 B4 12. Supervisory Management For those staying interest will Decrease Decrease strongly Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For those leaving temporarily interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For those leaving permanently interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly 13. Health Education For those staying interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For those leaving temporarily interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For those leaving permanently interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly 14. Labour Law in Hong Kong For those staying Decrease Interest will strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For those leaving temporarily interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For those leaving permanently interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly 15. Investment Planning For those sJayjng. Decrease Interest will strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For those leaving temporarily interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For those leaving permanently Interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly 181 B5 16. Chinese Philosophy For those staying interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For those leaving temporarily interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For those leaving permanently interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly 17. Chinese Calligraphy For those staying Decrease interest will strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For those leaving temporarily interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For those leaving permanently interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly 18. French Language For those staying interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For those leaving tempgrarily interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For those leaving permanently interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly 19.Environmental Science(Ecology ) For those staving interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For those leaving temporarily interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For those leaving permanently interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly 182 B6 20. Carpentry For those staying interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For those leaving temporarily interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For those leaving permanently interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly 21. Office Management For those staying interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For those leaving temporarily interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For those leaving permanently interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly 22. Moral Education. For Uiose staying interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For those leaving temporarily interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For those leaving, permanently interest will Decrease-strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly 23. Criminal Law For those staying interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For those leaving temporarily interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For those leaving permanently interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly 183 B7 24. International Trade For those staying interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For those leaving temporarily interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For those leaving permanently interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly 25. Chinese Arts (e.g. film, For those stavina interest will theatre, Decrease strongly painting) Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For those leaving temporarily interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For those leaving permanently interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly 26. Fashion Design For those slaying, interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For those leaving temporarily interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For those leaving permanently interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly 27. Japanese Language For those staying interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For those leaving temporarily interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For those leaving permanently interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially Increase Increase strongly the same 184 B8 28.Civil Engineering For those slaving, interest will Decrease Decrease strongly Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For those leaving temporarily interest will Decrease Decrease strongly Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For those leaving permanently interest will Decrease Decrease strongly Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly 29. Chef Training For those slavj_g, interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For those leaving temporarily interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For those leaving permanently interest will Decrease Decrease strongly Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly 30. Human Resources Management For those staying Decrease interest will strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For those lejyjng. temporarily interest will For those leaving, permanently interest will Decrease strongly Decrease strongly Decrease Decrease Remain Essentially the same Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase Increase strongly Increase strongly 31 . Religious & Ethno-cultural Studies For those staying interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strungly For those leaving temporarily interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For those leaving permanently interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly 185 B9 32.Property Law For those staying interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For those leaving temporarily interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For those leaving permanently interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly 33.Advertising/Marketing For those staying Decrease interest will strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For those leaving temporarily interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For those leaving, permanently interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly 34. Chinese Legal System For those staying Decrease interest will strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For those leaving temporarily interest will For those leaving permanently interest will Decrease strongly Decrease strongly Decrease Decrease Remain Essentially the same Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase Increase strongly Increase strongly 35. Hobby Handicrafts For those siayjno. interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For those lfiayjno. temporarily interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For those leaving permanently interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly BIO 36. English Language For those staying interest will Decrease strongly 186 Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For those leaving temporarily interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For those leaving permanently interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly 37.Biomedicine For those staying interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For those leaving temporarily interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For those leaving, permanently interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly 38 .Computer technology For those staying interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For those leaving temporarily interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For those leaving permanently interest will Decrease strongly. Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly 39. Training of Trainers For those staying Decrease interest will strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For those leaving temporarily interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For those leaving permanently interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly 187 B11 40.Social Work For those staying interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase increase strongly For those leaving, temporarily interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For those leaving permanently interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly 41 . Company Law For those staving interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For those leaving temporarily interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For those leaving permanently interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly 42. Accounting & Auditing For those staving Decrease interest will strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For those leaving temporarily interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For those leaving permanently interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly 43. China Trade For those staying interest will For those leaving temporarily Interest will Decrease strongly Decrease strongly Decrease Decrease Remain Essentially the same Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase Increase strongly Increase strongly For those leaving permanently interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly 188 B12 44. Home Gardening For those staying interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For those leaving temporarily interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For those leaving permanently interest will Decrease Decrease strongly Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly 45. Chinese Language For those staying interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For those leaving temporarily interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly For those leaving permanently interest will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly (Continued on next page) 189 B 13 To what extent will use of the following adult/continuing education processes increase or decrease between now and 1997 in Hong Kong generally and in your workplace? 1. CASE STUDIES In Hong Kong Decrease Decrease Remain Increase Increase generally will strongly Essentially strongly the same In my workplace will Decrease Decrease Remain Increase Increase strongly Essentially strongly the same 2. WORKSHOP In Hong Kong generally will Decrease Decrease Remain Increase increase strongly Essentially strongly the same In my workplace will Decrease strongly Remain Increase Increase Essentially strongly the same 3. FIELD TRIPS In Hong Kong generally will Decrease Decrease Remain strongly Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly In my workplace will Decrease Decrease Remain Increase Increase strongly Essentially strongly the same 4. FORUM In Hong Kong generally will Decrease Decrease Remain Increase Increase strongly Essentially strongly the same In my workplace will Decrease Decrease Remain Increase Increase strongly Essentially strongly the same 5. DEMONSTRATION In Hong Kong generally will Decrease Decrease Remain Increase Increase strongly Essentially strongly the same In my workplace will Decrease Decrease Remain Increase strongly Essentially the same Increase strongly 6. COURSES BY COMPUTER In Hong Kong Decrease generally will strongly I n my workplace Decrease will strongly 7. GROUP DISCUSSION In Hong Kong Decrease generally will strongly I n my workplace Decrease will strongly In my workplace Decrease will strongly 9. LECTURE In Hong Kong Decrease generally will strongly In my workplace Decrease will strongly 10.TUTORIAL DISCUSSION GROUP In Hong Kong Decrease generally will strongly In my workplace Decrease will strongly 11.SIMULATION In Hong Kong Decrease generally will strongly B14 190 Decrease Remain Increase Increase Essentially strongly the same Decrease Remain Increase Increase Essentially strongly the same Decrease Remain Increase Increase Essentially strongly the same Decrease Remain Increase Increase Essentially strongly the same Increase Increase strongly Decrease Remain Increase Increase Essentially strongly the same Decrease Remain Increase Increase Essentially strongly the same Decrease Remain Increase Increase Essentially strongly the same Decrease Remain Increase Increase Essentially strongly the same Decrease Remain Increase Increase Essentially strongly the same Decrease Remain Increase Increase Essentially strongly the same 8. Public Education Campaigns (e.g. Clean Hong Kong) In Hong Kong Decrease Decrease Remain generally will strongly Essentially the same In my workplace will Decrease Decrease Remain Increase increase strongly Essentially strongly the same ^.APPRENTICESHIP In Hong Kong generally will Decrease strongly 191 Decrease Remain Essentially the same increase B15 Increase strongly In my workplace will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase increase strongly 13.DEBATE In Hong Kong generally will Decrease Decrease Remain Increase Increase strongly Essentially strongly the same In my workplace will Decrease Decrease Remain Increase Increase strongly Essentially strongly the same 14.EXHIBITIONS In Hong Kong generally will Decrease Decrease Remain Increase Increase strongly Essentially strongly the same In my workplace will Decrease Decrease Remain Increase Increase strongly Essentially strongly the same 15.Educational Games In Hong Kong generally will Decrease Decrease Remain Increase Increase strongly Essentially strongly the same In my workplace will Decrease Decrease Remain strongly Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly 16.CLASS In Hong Kong generally will Decrease Decrease Remain Increase Increase strongly Essentially strongly the same In my workplace will Decrease Decrease Remain Increase Increase strongly Essentially strongly the same 17.ROLE PLAY In Hong Kong generally w111 Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly In my workplace will Decrease strongly Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly B16 18.CORRESPONDENCE STUDY In Hong Kong Decrease generally will strongly 192 Decrease Remain Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly In my workplace will Decrease Decrease Remain strongly Essentially the same Increase Increase strongly ( CONTINUED ON NEXT PAGE ) 193 NOW PLEASE ANSWER THESE BACKGROUND QUESTIONS. REMEMBER—YOUR NAME IS NOT REQUIRED. What is your sex? Male \ \ Female I \ What is your age (in years)? I years In your life, do you regard adult/continuing education as being your primary (i.e. most important) or secondary professional concern? (Check only one box) ADED/CE is my PRIMARY professional concern ADED/CE is my SECONDARY professional concern 1 1 What is your role in adult/continuing education? (Check only one box) Primarily a PLANNER r——i (e.g. Administrator/Programer/Policy-maker) I ' Primarily a TEACHER (e.g. Tutor/Lecturer/Counsellor) For how many years have you worked as a full or part-time adult/ continuing educator? Full time: 1 | year(s) I year(s) Part-time: What is the highest educational qualification you hold? (Check only one box) No formal qualification .., Completed Form 5 , Completed Form 6 or Form 7 Post-secondary or professional qualification only: (e.g. Vocational School diplomas, Business diplomas, etc.), Completed part of a university degree or diploma , Completed a university degree or diploma: Degree/diploma obtained from a university overseas Where? ________ Degree/diploma obtained from a university in H.K , Completed a university degree or diploma and some additional post-secondary qualification (e.g. B.B.A. and Certified Accountant, B.A. and Dip. Ed., etc.) 194 What do you regard as your first (or original) academic discipline or field of study (e.g. accounting, languages, sociology, education, nursing, engineering, home economics, etc.)? For you, what is the most important purpose of adult/continuing education? Rank these purposes. (For example, if you think social change is the most important, place 1 in the box, then use 2, 3, 4 for other boxes.) Social integration i i (e.g. helping people "fit in" to Hong Kong) I | Social responsibility  > (e.g. citizenship) 1 I Social change i -t (e.g. for democracy) I I Technical competence i I (e.g. skills training) | ) YOU'VE NEARLY FINISHED. NOW WE WANT TO ASK SOME QUESTIONS ABOUT 1997. How many current residents of Hong Kong will leave permanently, temporarily, or stay — between now and 1997? Please place your best estimates in each of the following boxes. We only want your best guess but make them add up to 100%. Between now and 1997, ) *| % will leave permanently. Between now and 1997, | j % will leave temporarily. Between now and 1997, 1 | % will stay in Hong Kong. total= 100 % How much do you feel you know about the functions of the Executive and Legislative Councils in Hong Kong? (Check only one box) An immense amount \ J Very much Much A moderate amount Little Very little Almost nothing 195 How much do you feel you know about the differences between Hong Kong-style capitalism and "Chinese" (i.e. PRC) socialism? (Check only one box) An immense amount [ | Very much Much A moderate amount Little Very little Almost nothing How much do you feel you know about why and how the Sino-British Joint Declaration was signed? (Check only one box) An immense amount 1 I Very much I 1 Much \ | A moderate amount I I Little I I Very little 1 1 Almost nothing How much do you feel you know about the content of the Sino-British Joint Declaration? (Check only one box) An immense amount Very much | I Much A moderate amount Little I I Very little Almost nothing How much do you feel you know about the content of the Draft Basic Law? (Check only one box) An immense amount Very much Much A moderate amount Little Very little Almost nothing 20 196 7. How do you feel about the performance of the present Governor since he assumed office? (Check only one box) Very good performance Good performance I I Satisfactory performance \ \ No feeling one way or the other Fair performance | | Poor performance 1 \ Very poor performance | | 8. How do you feel about what has happened as a result of the signing of the Sino-British Joint Declaration? (Check only one box) Extremely optimistic | | Very optimistic | I Slightly optimistic \ J No feeling one way or the other | 1 Slightly pessimistic | I Very pessimistic | | Extremely pessimistic 9. Even though it never came to fruition, how did you feel about the proposal for direct elections for the Legislative Council in 1988? (Check only one box) Extremely positive Very positive [ZD Slightly positive I » No feeling one way or the other Slightly negative | | Very negative Extremely negative 10. How do you feel about the current proposal for direct elections for the Legislative Council in 1991? (Check only one box) Extremely positive | I Very positive I \ Slightly positive No feeling one way or the other I 1 Slightly negative I 1 Very negative Extremely negative 210 197 11. How do you feel about the democracy movement in Hong Kong? (Check only one box) Extremely positive ] \ Very positive Slightly positive No feeling one way or the other Slightly negative Very negative Extremely negative 12. Overall, how do you feel about what will happen in 1997 and beyond? (Check only one box) Extremely optimistic | | Very optimistic | | Slightly optimistic I I No feeling one way or the other Slightly pessimistic Very pessimistic Extremely pessimistic 13. To what extent do you feel you are able to control the forces that shape the nature of your life? (Check only one box) Very much control Much control Moderate control Little control Very little control No control at all 14. To what extent are you involved in China trade, China exchanges, or any projects with China? (Check only one box) Very much involved Much involved Moderately involved Little involved Very little involved Not involved at all 22 6 198 i5. To what extent can the Legislative Councillors represent your interests They can represent my interests: (Check only one box) Very much Much Moderately Little \ | Very little Not at all 16. Are you a registered voter' Yes No 17. Have you ever given any opinions or suggestions on the Draft Basic Law to the Basic Law Consultative Committee? Yes No 18. Are you going to give opinions or suggestions on the Draft Basic Law to the Basic Law Consultative Committee? Yes No 19. 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JKii fit*' • .A* o Mi At* 240 , . ZO< Hi* *ft* & ,t&? ***** 4fM CZJ ^i^J J—J 1} %:.% & 241 t AAA _ - pirn • 242 fcZJ >w *ft J3 *t' i * »s # : W £ - ^ % CD A ^ # yfe «js / Appendix B: Newspaper Coverage of May 28, 1989—People Marched in Hong Kong for Democracy in China A%crauc daily suit- ia*i «cck 61.<-..«•! JJJJ The Hongkong Standard § FORWARD WITH HONGKONG MONDAY, MAY 29, 1989 SUBSCRIBER'S COPY/NOT FOR SALE World marches for China MILLIONS of people all over UM (lob* •bowed their support for China's defiant student! with protests, rallies end starting wl una rally a The worM-wMe were held In call for support INSIDE: • Thfl Changing Face ol China: PlfMl-Tk • Editorial; Page 12 •> g those who staned a rasponse to a art by BeUing tio conanuea their sit-in at Tiananmen Square for the ninth day since the imposition of martial law. The global effort was led ganlaers claimed more man. l.S million people turned op far s rally and procession calling for land and the removal of hardline Premier U Peng. It was the second huge turnout In as many days. On Saturday. 100,000 the students, the Chinese government end to Presi dent George Bush, accord ing to orgnnieers. Philip Lam, an organiser of the Cos Angeles demon stration, said a M-bour EST tbon cooes rt et the Happy Valley race course, raising til million tar Betting pro-Mr Sseto Wan. e.Legls-lativa Councillor and a member of the organising were not Mghurjed°^y sranutf from Chinese In addition to Mr Lis *] US does — including Washington. New York. San r^endsco, Los Angelas.- Houston end Boston - since the historic occupation of Beijing's rally this week, as the number of protesters In Tiananmen Square b»t fallen to about 10.000. The students are debating whether to end their sit-in and adopt a new set of tgrtfri in their battle for In Sydney, an < 1,000 demonstrators marched through the ati sou yesterday In sup port of the student fhlnsas sovereignty In Speakers expressed fcemthat Macau's still undxaftad Basic Law, tn-Potke refused to let the marchers enter the Chtneee consulate build ings whm they had hoped to present a petition to consular officials. The elm of the demon stration was to get public attention, so we are still happy ~ said Ms Kills Yin, a 19-year-old Sydney Uni versity student from Hong kong who helped organise the rally. -We hove achieved that end we hope It will put International pressure ' onto the Chinese govern ment to take positive no tion for e democratic China." I Huff's autonomy for 00 no aiieeia. In Canada, Chinese In Taiwan, thousands of people demonstrated in the Island's two largest doe*. About IftflOO students, celebrities and retired • servicemen marched m a park In downtown Taipei, shouting slogans support ing the tnatiilsM ffrf^T!1^ and cairytng banners pro-' "Long live free-INSIDE OPENERS Esnrtn Sinclair has hla aay in OPENERS today and tackles bizarre and eccen tric habits of poli ticians. Pane I Film* Minister Margaret Thatcher roey aack Chancel-lor of the Exchequer Nigel Lawaon and Foreign Secretary Sir Geoftrey Howe. aooorcUnoj to news paper reports. This and all-the other news from the United liagiom in our BRITAIN TO DAY i INDEX TELEPHONES Editorial S-TM2T98 Aeveruetag 3-TW798 ClseMheds 1-7596833 WEATHER: 26'C — 30*C. Hot and gunny. Datatlt on Rana21 "The students to BelJtaJ are *y***"g for the future of all Cmnoee," veteran actor Sun Yueh told the gathering in a speech. Thvg have our full sup-,. pert of an esrtjmntajd 1.B million poop** who mocchod, In iy In asjpport of the Boiling studenta. Threat of Western loans squeeze on Beijing metrte south of TalpeL-about 10.000 students and (acuity metabets from the National Sun Yet-een Uni versity took pert B> Tammy Tam In BeiJInfc, JAPAN and 'the United temporarily stop all Joans said a local analyst. How gates have threat " oil loans and Inve.. (pr China as. the govern- bustneesrear stent crisis deepens, ™'— -to China, while the US ha* ever a srbrces told ThtJtongkant or cancel joint-venture fflpndcrd yesterday. projects," said tnesourcee. tot counter ectl took to the Soviet Union 6r greater economic and The US and Japan trade cooperation. thtak B ts a good oppor-TT"Japan bat tarormed ' tanlty to bargain vrtth CSlna of.its mtannon to Chine tn many matters,". ment had reached an draw agreement with the Soviet premier Yeo Ylttn to the Union to Increase bilateral State Council met Friday trade substantially. ssld: -Chins would not ba china ts facing aa •eon- Mr Yeo'e speech also afraid of any foreign pree- onuc crisis with galloping triggered speculation thet ^ '— he could become the next dd prune tnmtstsr. while Mr ^Zz. to U Peng •> aet to succeed nimmrred4o*os diagraosd it would Central Military Com-deepen the economic crisis mittas. ^-•??^_^00*" Meanwhile, the tourday gpedal meeting of the The US , ting has asked its natkmala Japan and the US are also China's .foreign trade to prepare to leave China, exerting pressure to push rne Bret four months of the China away fern the E General Secretary "Mr Xbeo win probably Ziyaog with Prod- not be accused of being the _ I Yang fthflna>*tn gat- head of an anti-party ttng more power tn the chque.".sakl s source. New York, actors Mike FarreU and Ed Aaner and Detroit Bishop Thomas OumbleSon were New betting records as season ends B» KM BETTING tcrday at the racing season came to an end>wu» a massive 10-race .pro gramme at Sba Tin. • But the bopeMtar Uinon dollar day did not material ise and the 6&0OQ attend ance feD far snort of the flOOO people who turned up on January J9 to eee the second running of the Invi tation Cup. .-.Nevertheless, yester day's turnover of )ust under gBsi.gmilnon -was -16 percent upon last year's last-day record of 1734 million. .The final race picked op Racing Editor nu.nmnuon. a record Ear one race, while the year's total turnover reached SM.lbUUoR de spite the loss of orw racing day due to Typhoon Breads. - Royal Hongkong Jockey dub chief executive Major Getteral Guy Wstkina said he was ssxtsflad with the season and with the bet ting figures. the lov/sr-than-expected. turnout could have been the tejsnM .of yesterday's 'democracy marches which involved more than a . English-bred San champion horse. Irish three-year-old Quicken, . Away becoming pretty good" figure,"* he champion stayer award. As the punters streamed Out of the tacacourss. the giant - video screen read: "See you - on September Ii." -Of t had a meeting washed out, but we've bad some good racing and we've seen with an enlarged tJ-dar season and, perhaps, the tint blUtco-doUar racing any. Traders brace themselves 6 AM EDITION Appendix C: Newspaper Front Page of June 4, 1989 —Tiananmen Square Incident. SuntiTtmna Sunday Morning Post 8-PAGE BEIJING SPECIAL Vol. XLVNo. 153 HONGKONG, SUNDAY, JUNE 4. 1989 Td: 5-652222 Price $3.<X • Angry protesters • 1,000 attack Great • Army uses trucks • Bush 'deeply lynch soldiers Hall of the People to smash barricades deplores' attack BEIJING BLOODBATH: 57 KILLED BY TROOPS AT least 57 people were bayonelted or shot U death tod hundreds more wound ed in Beijing; early today u tens of thousands of nkfierg smashed their way into Tiananmen Squire to truth the student protest At dawn tanks rolled into the square crushing the students' flimsy tents and •hooting pro-democracy demonstrators, witnesses •aid, Mac±ine-gun fire raked the square. Two Western reporters ivcre • wounded as the army cleared the square. The attack capped seven tours of s bloody snack aimed si retaking the square from pro testers who held it for more than three weeks m a bed (or po-uticeJ ISJOIIIL fa plosions could be heard Several soldier* were lynched by the crowds and left for dead on the roads swung to the square as hundreds of thou sands of students agreements (ought beck terccty. "1 hare just had my btst rig-ereae. Tonight we are going to die," said a crying worker hnd-dlcd in the masses at the Monu ment to the People's Heroes es squara. Witnesses said most of the dead wore SQainats. The troops, tn full bank gear and armed with rifles, marched a line Beijing's main artery, shortly before midnight, firing voDcys at regular intervals to open the way for cohuBn* of trucks. The troops walked into the square, firing at they moved, at first firing over the heads of protesters but later lowering Some workers around the square tried to burl petrol bombs at the advancing sol-makeshift Statue of Liberty erected-by the students five days ago. Two armoured personnel carriers burned brightly on the edge of the square. It was the firm time troops hed opened fins on demonstra tors in seven weeks of pro-de mocracy unrest A Beijing government spokesman said more than i.OOO people rushed to a con-suuctioo site lo seize steel bars and bricks, that some people at tacked the government resi dence of Znongnanhai near Tiananmen Square, and the Oreat Hall of the People, the of ficial New China News Agency (NCNA) reported. The military convoys coo-verged on the square ftm (bur directions. Repeatedly they INSIDE SUNDAY HrOJiCY SUNDAY UVINGJ .OukC" WEATHER x Today wtto cloudy with some scat tered showers. Maal-The area immediately northwest of Tiananmen was uttered with abandoned and burning military vchicJea. Five kilometres from the square, witnesses saw a light armoured vehicle plough at speed into the crowd to force its way through, leaving at least The crowds fought back fiercely and witnesses said they taw soldiers lynched by the crowds and left sbrdcad on the road. which svnpt aside barricades of oners placed across the roads by port desooyed by the deroon-In some areas troops ap peared to bold the upper hand, in oibcrs frenzied mobs at tacked troops, and in still other dents peacefully hahedlhe Bow armoured trucks. The first blood was shed in In a desperate voice, a auras al the hospital, loid Hongkong inquirers that "scores of people" had been admitted with "gunshot wounds". The coodiuoo of many of these peo ple was critical, she a A male nurse, answering the call, also confirmed -several drethi in the hospital, almost all from gunshot wounds. He said the hospital was liaising with other hospitals for assis-ace. A doctor from the Fusing Hospital in western Beijing, an firing on ... the hospital had taken in IS dead and so many wounded they bad to be put in garages. A second doctor from so other hospital near the dashes nud be had hanAifA 12 dead. One soldier was run over by an ennorcd personnel carrier rusb-ing toward the square and a Swedish visitor. Tom Hsnsson, said be saw three people shot dead south of the square. Five people were seen with blood poering out of their barriers gave way to the trucks as they bote down on them. The second truck fired teai Dcstonstreiors ran far cover don'', "Oct out of Beijing" at -China, China" as they fied. Witnesses also saw troops firing at windows where pro testers were snouting defiant slogans. The soldiers advanced behind construction vehicles which swept aside barricades of buses placed in their path by Tom Mia tier, described ti nsge: "A few minutes age was s large beirsgt of firing... there are Dot enou|u re being used lo take the wounded away... a pan of the crowd in square is still j... but the crowd has dwindled constdersbrr. "I would say by about 7J per meet "You have to give your life to (he movgcxnL Students tang the uternationala A 10 m high "Goddess of Democracy," a replica of the Statue of Liberty set up by stu-" that the govern-to the o*-Staonly before I am, two that the army it moving for- • A ghjdent thrown debris an advancing tar* ki e vain ettempt to hen He progress thtui^n Tionenmen Square. Bush says he deeply deplores decision to use force WASHINGTON: President George Bush, apparently moved by reports of violence from China, said he "deeply deplored" the Beijing force against student demoa-la s formal statement neocd by the White House early this morning Hongkong ume, Mr Bush urged the Chinese Gov ernment to return to the use of non-violent mesas to deal with the student uprising that has rocked Beijing for the past sev en weeks. "It is dear the Chinese Gov ernment bat chosen to use force sgainsi Chinese citizens who are making a peaceful state ment in favour of democracy," the statement said "I deeply deplore the derision to use force sndtbe consequent loss of life." Chincse troops moved into Beijing's Tianaamen Square, focal point of the nodes l dent* OBStreiions for democracy, hue last night Reports indicated at lean 42 people were killed and scores wounded in the subee-once served at US "I hope China will rapidly return to the path of politkal and ecoaonuc reform and con ditions of stability so that this relationship, so important to both' aud the United Stales was i (to UM restraint in ) the student dem • -We have continue to urge Don-violent re straint and dialogue," Mr Bush added. "Tragically another I urge a return 10 aoa-viaaeai meant for dealing whh the cur-A White House official said the president decided to issue the statement after receiving more tenons on growing vio lence in the Chinese capital. Mr Bush had remained silent for "The United States sod the People's Republic of China over the past two decades hive built up through great efforts by both sides a constructive rela tionship, beneficial to both countries," said mr Bush, who in Beijing. . Speaking on CNN's Ncwimtkcr Stturdty program in Washington. Mr Baker noted the situation in China had turned "ugly and chaotic" and "1 think the Chinese Gov ernment knows the position of the United States Government,'" Mr Baker said "You know, the army of Chink calls itself the 'Army of the People'. And we think ii would be unfortunate, indeed, if the 'Army of the People' were used lo suppress the people." Arthough Mr Baker indicat ed the United Stales preferred not to meddle in China's inter nal eflairt, be said: "I think the mrsisyi we have sent, howev er, have bom received in the spirit in which they have been sent We've not in effect hern told to mind your own business." Mr Baker abo said the State Department had been in touch with the US Embassy in China, which reported the situation was "quite chaotic now". There is shooting going OCL To tome extent that shooting appears to be aimed up io the air, arthough we do have some preliminary reports of Kennebunkpon on the «•••_" opments in China by Deputy Nauonal Security Adviser Rob-en Gales. The White House He noted the United State* had been enable w confirm any Mr Baker said US staff and other US Dotksaals in the Chinese capital had been warned to stay swsy from Tiananmen Square. A State De-partmeut advisory urging Americans not lo Irsvcl to China was still in effect, he add-Cd Mr Bush abo was briefed in arms sales to the Chinese Gov ernment be limited in response to the crackdown. "I don't think we should sh here today... within hours of the first really significant use of force (against a peaceful dem-eastraooa by the students)... and try and hypothesise about Senile Foreign Relation* Com mittee, sua nr —*""*"* to end the sharing of US miii-lary^and technology with "I find little surprise thai the Chinese communists are acting as communists always da," he "The violence in Beiiing is de plorable and all of booed us have it would has hap-ttwuln ," Mr a "I think we'll have lo see what happens. We're not sure what course this will tike, even now," the secretary said. But on Capitol Hill, Senator Jesse Helm* of North Carolina, the rankine Reoublican on ihe "I wit) begin working whh my colleagues to ensure that at • first response again*! this bru tality, all US military co-opera tion and sharing of technology with the communist govern ment or Chins musi be termi nated immediately." Mr Helms Appendix D: Newspaper Front Page of June b, l9Hb)--Mass  Rally and General Strike Called For in Hong Kong South China Morning Post General: 5-652222 News:.5-652252 Classified: 5-658822 HONGKONG. MONDAY. JUNE 5. 1989 Vol. XLV No. 154 1,400 feared dead, 10,000 hurt Troops fire wildly at crowds outside top Beijing hotel Official says Deng has cancer SENIOS It piag *»r« the steer* km the • THE dcitb loll in the People'* Liberation Army'* bruul drive lo cod the pro-democracy demonstration in Beijing it at lean 1,400 people killed ud 10,000 wounded, bospiUJ sources Mid. The Chinese Government lut night .dajmed about 1,000 *oldiers had been wounded in dathc* with what ii tensed "booiiganj" and thai aoorcs of troops bad died, tome burnt in their vehicles and at least one lynched on a light pole. • IN one of the moil horrifying confrontations, foreigner! watched soldiers tiring repealed volley! from automatic weapon* inio crowd* of resident! who had gathered in front of the Beijing Hotel, a few hundred metre* from Tiananmen Square, at about 10.30 am. la one aalvo, al leait 30 civilians died, • TANKS with machine-gun* biasing continued to patrol central Beijing in a snow of force last night but hundred* of thousand* of resident* defied order* to remain indoor* and gathered in (treeti leading to Tiananmen Square. • PROTESTS Oared in al least eight other major citie* when newt of the • IN it* first official statement since the bloody crackdown, the Government branded the student fad movement a* a "counter-revolutionary rebellion" trying to overthrow the Government and the socialist system. It stressed that the troops' "hali-boar • operation" had been "totally legal" within the provisions of the martial taw declared by Prune Minister U Peng on May 20 to deal with a crowd of frenzied thug*. • THE operation, however, was deplored through the world, with moat leaden expressing shock and dtsbcbcf a! the level of force used in the bloody Ta* •fflclals safe Mr Deng's taaallUna t* serious. 'My heart is bleeding, they killed my people' w^HrS Drag gave the- erscr* a a THaVtraaasa a** sasaahttr ahsewl en the (ana efban-drede eMUIjImg cttbwaa ctaatca at dry a i yae-""•Y was lucky," a«M a • MORE than 200,000 angry and thecked citizen* of Hongkong and Macau took to the streets in mewning for those killed. Organisers oft rally at the Happy Valky racecourse and a march through Filwlihll Has* Hal fa •irthiiat Bat Jang, ha* eta In a etftug ashtf Iii II 111 ay a as***. •&B«SIIM»« territory-wide das* boycotts, n general strike and business su*pension on Wednesday. •Teasarsliii,tail llig acaMaadtwegM.il Ii in, Al af aa wart that aawat twe eatsld* aar hanw* la Nanboynaa Deaa,S4,k ral Military Residents defy gunfire y aaasyr mU a eaM-mlMftag ANORY and defiant resi dents returned to their barricades but night in an attempt lo keen troops out of the centre of the capital, where a violent charge lo ~ i Square M left a INSIDB 1*2,3: Ev»wftria**aa P4-B: Mora pscturas HK reacts ' •24: Edrtonai versity in the s — . . . of the city find vol- witha»sataath with swr has-nacnino^na fim iaSo hand and e*e*TJ*» as twe keys of mariiimvg'ta fire esso Ihie air from aa armoured vehicle captared from troops during yesterday ion as saying in a statement broadcast around 11.30 pa. However, hundred* of thousands of people wore in the unci*, and the anger over the previous night'* the previous night trail of corpses. Troop* coo turned to rakx oaarmed residents with Late last night, about 100 _ _ _ troops charged into a reai- Thousaads returned to dcnaal area just ectrfioi* the the Xidan nitersecuoa two •uoare, shooting into uar- kilometre* well of the row alleyway* a* hysterical sqoare tonx wocradutchedtbeu-babsca not and set and people U to the pave- st fife to miflnry Win l 10 a They diuts the currier lo the actgbbouriat People'* Uaiversity campus, with Into toe maie gate, gma* poiattc gathered outside the cam-P°*- - . StadeaU wore black -We waaU al aa aa Ban-anal Be* saaaaass. The wasfc-arawaaW alga aa* and sap-part is* •frliBti. hat t*M 11 Win aw 11 Hi every one. Maw* ••aryw*a>. Whe waaMauta t* a* aa* now? Wsarea!aearat,"ahaaa*L ' Bar I I I saaa, -W« After the attack, real- and 16 armoured troop car-. dents came out again and riers thundered eastwards taunted the soldiers with bum cries of **tusGtat*\ chy* A venae far Beijing mayor Chen three kilometres to Beijing'* Xitong had earlier issued an main embassy district and There ws* p. al angry. We asa aal daajna*-ed. The pease* an angry" Ajttewd ga*h**ed •—• •aTal kit i*d i w sasrtag aa. me-eaaataftaaasBiaaaa. n aaa aaMwi* aiai faaar: MPs say scrap the handover Pnai DAVID W ALLEN la Lsaaaa BRITISH Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher bm eight ssid the wat "deeply •hocked" at the horror of event* in Tiananmen Square, while some mcm-bers of psruuDcol. espress-mp the same shock, suggest ed that the handover of Quna should Mrs Thatdier who was at her conn try residence of OseuWrs lor the j«ekcnd date on the ntuatioa in Bei jing by the Forage Office. A spokesman for 10 Downing Street ntd ~Sbe it waidiing events with great crawi. u flvaai to stay isatoen and root *o Theparpaatofthaaartit bsscn to i UCBOQTI . waaunknown but there wars "Parent* saoald stop persistent rumour* that their children from going troc^ wembanracaBd Mas-out n street* ... to avoid fcr some uai wily eampos-ns necessary losses,** Mr as. Bpopaasrana-dent leader, 21-year-old ^ai^iuii*^ Wa'erkaisi of Beijing craackad aa ta* Teacher*' Uai wry. w«*. Maag cr*nalai aws ~ sirkdwbm troops ahcMtknr «nM tk« aasn H la% IaX waysstoTb about Jam A ana la the crawl taacharnwi awafl sas haad aad tanad l^aaaasgca way, aai ayes sad aad wat **Wa~tiw4(aatapBat,stsl L **W* < eh* tnwr* sa-il (W IT.** he **Thay abet bar eavea tlataa, even aa aba was rwaal*d sergl-twasrkiiTr rer* tyiag an daily.hallway flaars aa played (bear m-rays. • naausMftiBtfa n am aayn-1» BwSwV **A girl Is lb* crowd iiaafjaj." aaM tse ssacbar. w^as^aa-g yeaeroay. | ~'- -— _ haaH thai bar veaagar wtewaatiwsSaiIssaaraawi a«kwhm itirii. th.lr r, thbaouldeol Tbvy hev* an aaawi*. bmthat had aaaa ittd, and aaalaat l^sagUasaa Mad- el^w^haafr alTbemwass S^ibTwEa-^ »*-b-eawaassmltan loUJMas.l«aafstaL v ^^"^ lx>uisRraud RMUS Louis Feraud RAR1S liariaai Aa wba anw K kast bar eaasaaaana MS tin ttal (jastap* Haapatak ly a*M*t*d (Caat^eaPasaACall) waptT toward the Mldlara," a The aeaua In the (Uvatal patlsal Party man General strike called for Wednesday quits over bloodshed wifMst) JkfaaastaaasaabaU bar asather1* hand," aaU a awoTarattbal |ll l.afcw hkseks freai the aapara, A mmm toU af a twang warkcr **cyettag *• war* hi (C—fa aa Page 2, Cal 1) tng lha atineae anthorities. Ovcniight a vigil was held outside the Quaesc Embas sy and a protest letter was handed in. . Mrs Thatcher, io * suie-ment, said: "We are aD deep ly shocked at me news horn rHi^t H appaflwl by the iasuscriminste ahootlng of -lib a I of -S, Call) • S ANDY HO GENERAL Strike has yesterday** /alley put >be A HONOtONO* of the Ounce* C Party. Mr He W New China New* Agency (NCNA). in the left-wing Woi Wd Pao, T« Knag ABO, Afiaj* Pao and Hoa$kon$ Eco-aaaiJc Joarm*l In oil statement, Mr He said: "I can't accept the bloody troth that the Chi-rally at Happy Vt .. turnout at more than hatfu-million. Police Hongkong force lo inppreii the This ta in total contra vention with the goal of the party,*' be asid. Mr He who retired from the NCNA several year* ago could not be reached for Earlier estimates have put the total number of local member* of the CCP al 4,000. Legislator Martin Lee Che-eung condemned the the Chinese authorities' Hundreds of thousands of aggrieved tn relbes yesterday to ii the dead of the June 4 r - , . , t S 4™«^i^hrifrtTmtfi> 1 beucve it (the ah* Chinese party Go*- down) ta the work by a group eminent and army leader* ofverycMmenwhowaniw responsible for the crack- cluuj to theu peww and are down. prepared to sacrifice thou-The Hornkoos coalitjon sand* and millions of lives. I m support oftheBeiji&i st» think ihey lave gone maoV* dent* yesterday called for a Ine Governor. Sir David •encral strike, etcept for cs- Wihon, expressed "horror sea lis! services incradiBg anger" si the bloodshed, banking and Government but stopped short of con Employees of vital ser vices were urged to wear black armband* when Ibey K to work on Wednesday, ajor education institu tion* are ready to respond with a territory-wide das* boycott on the same day. Thta a general call. We will ask all shop* to dose their doors, aD factonea to strike and all schools to can-deroning the Beijing author' "There it a very real use in the community of I has been happening," be ' V appealing for calm. 'It taa Bank of China drained of ready cash Tneaater claimed proba-bulkt* k of China'* m THE drained of cash last night after local residents were told lo boycott Chinese banks, good* and tour* to the mainland. Pamphlet* calling for the boycott were distributed at yesterdsy's mass rally and in Central A simitar call was made in Macau. No iuenhfknboo of the author was given but the 'by two. Ii killed the students were percussed from Hongkong's investments. "Do yon want to be usedT* Yesterday. Monetary Af fairs Secretary David Nendka and Commissioner for Securities and Future* Robert Owen urged stock market investors not to pan ic when the Hongkong mar ket open* today. withdraw all their money Mr Nendick i from Chinese banks as for- think that during unsettled age cash would be used aaa limes, the most sensible thing ta to cither stay in the market If one is already there or to wait if one ta not mere. "I dool tltink thta it the sort of time when people can gel the best value when they come to sefl stock*. Ii ta an uncertain period and if* best for the small investor* to leave It to the profess ionals." Hongkong Slock Es-change chief executive Fran cis Yuen said yesterday he expected the market, which •bed nearly 20 per cent of its value over the past two weeks, to bee **tremendous I cspect many people. mainly fund manager*, would like to get rid of Hongkong nock*,*' be ssid. Added ooc broker: **Tbc stock market will drop tike a MrOwcnssid:"! would suggest people do not make any precipitate moves, and wait to sec how events evolve further." Both he and Mr Nendick appeared to rule out dosing the stock and futures mar ket* today, although they •aid ibey were unable to guarantee it Mr Owen ssid trading in both markets bad been or derly in the past three weeks. INDEX CLASSIFIED POST Pwilk A L*aa> N*kw*_ SwrlenCaM* ! Ski|»wgC«aai WEATHER Hot MMI auraiy period* Mas temp /—^i., 30 tsaorae*. f ^ 8MfaD*2. 0' Discover Xx>uis\ditton at tke exclusive. I^uu\rwtton stores. Dtt Votui Ro*d, CaunL Td Rfpubf B» Shopping Arcade, Rcpubr ttj Road. Td ytllTTK bHotrl Shopping Arcadr. Td >-**37J) Rceent Howl Shopping Arcade. Td i-mvn •/F. IM Wing. New World Omrr Td J-7Jv*W LOUTS VUITTON ; © Appendix E: Newspaper Front Page of June 6, 1989—Stock Market Plunged and Chinese Banks in Hong Kong Made Run On South China Morning Post General: 5-652222 News: 5-652252 Classified: 5-658822 HONGKONG, TUESDAY, JUNE 6. 1989 Vol. XLV No. 165 Price $3.00 Hongkong unionist arrested trying to flee Beijing Br &Y.WA1 HONGKONG unionist Lee Cbeuk-yan, who but week belped carry some of the $2 million delivered lo Beijing protesters, was last night ar rested by mainland police just as be was about to board a special Hongkong Govern-menl-chartered flight He was taken from I he 123-eeai Dragonair Boeing 737 by two uniformed secu rity officials, who said bis Home Visit Permit bad not been property lnspmed. The oibcr 126 Hongkong residents, businessmen. capital were already on board and arrived at Kai Tak shortly after midnight. Mr Lee is the first Hong kong resident arrested under martial law provisions. The Hongkong Alliance in Support of Patriotic Dem-ocrauc Movement in China fears thai he might become another Lau Shsn-ching. a Hongkong resident arrested in 1982 and serving a 10-for" rere fleeing the Chinese revolutionary** Alliance members, in formed of the arrest by a Dragonair pilot, last night marched to Government Himtr drmairting that the Governor, Sir David Wil son, and British Prime Min ister Margaret Thatcher, hdp him. Alliance leader and Leg islative Councillor Sieto Wah secured a tnertisg with Sir David late last night on the arrest. Eleven legislators, in cluding Mr Sieto. had joined ibe urgent meeting with ibe Governor by mid. The British Embassy in Beijing said early today thai it had lodged an inquiry with the Chinese Foreign Mini*-ter snd was "taking this up as a matter of urgency''. A Government spokes man said: "We have been in touch with the embassy wbo know Mr Lee well and have great respect for bis efforts lo organise and asiin other lloitgkong people to get to the chartered plane ibis "As yet we have no con firmation that he has been detained, or by whom," the spokesman said. Mr Lee, wbo is in his ear ly 30s, has been an activist for political reform and la bour protection since he graduated from the Univer sity of Hongkong in civil en gineering in the 1970s. He is chsirmsn of ibe Cloth Making Industry Workers' General Ui ' : secretary of the Chrinian Industrial Committee and was beading a five-member dekgauon of the miiianrp u take 12 mil lion to the mainland protest ers. The captain of the Drsjonsjf craft. Ian Stanley, ssid on arriving ie Kai Tak earty today thai Mr Lee had gone through immigration procedure* and was stopped short of the plane by four uniformed officials. "He tried to board the aircraft but they tried to stop said it was necessary, for him to go back to the unmigrn-' There was no violence at alL The passengers were very shocked and desperate ly waiting for him. We did stay there for 13 minutes to wait for him to get the per-mitsMM to board," Mr Sian-Mr Stanley said Chinese officials told him lhat Mr Lee was having problem! with his passport. Meanwhile, three Hong kong reporters who returned borne on an earlier flight last flight complained that the British Embassy had not helped them as had been promised. (Coats ea Page 7, Col t) Bush suspends all military sales to China UNITED States President George Bush yesterday con demned the Chinese crack down on pro-democrscy Reports of clash with rival troops • fMBng TANKS'and troops guarding Beijing's mam Changan Avenue last night took up combai po sitioDi amid uncoo-firmed accounts of dash es between Army units south of the capital Twenty tanks and .13 truckloads of soldiers took up fighting positions fac ing cast along Ibe a venae at the major Jianguomen-wai intersection, diplo mats and witnesses said. A witness ssid small groups of foot soldiers look np positions along the road doac lo a oompooad wbere many foreign diplomats live. Staff from several em-basiies have evacuated apartments oearby, dipio-INSIDE Pufje) 2? Other cities Pacj» 4: EC tnfka off Pnc/n •: UK reaction Pao* *-& HK anger Paget Ui Edrtonal units in at least one other major city - Shenyang in northeast China. Troop de ployment in si least su other major cities, including <ih»n|h«i Chengdu, Nan-jiag, Wubao, Xian and Guangzhou, was also report ed. Teosioa was high in Shanghai while in Chengdu, troops were said to have fired on unruly mobs. In Guangzhon, barri cades have been put up and sources ssid preparations "are now in hand for the in-stitotioa of martial law" northwest towards Beijing from the ciry of Tianjin. The reason for the troop move-meat was unclear. A reliable Chinese mili tary source said there was fighting between military groups around the Nanyuaa military air base south of the dry earlier in the day. He said be could not give de tails, but the fighting was se-The troop movement m Beijing came as soldiers con-tintwuf to pm down indis criminately residents who ventured into Tiananmen Square and elsewhere, as ambulances look casualties to the already congested hos pitals. The hteat death toll was ' about 4.000. reliable soured reported, and the number of wounded totalled soma 20,000. Meanwhile the Ameri can and other embassy com-pounds began providing shelter for foreign students •t Chinese universitiei, where public security offi cers, sasisted by troops be-•tWW DIAMONQ&t DICKSON WATCH t JEWELLERY CO. LTD CS WATCH CO.. I TO PRECISION WATCH CO. LTD. student leaders. An American Embassy official said about 20 of the 400 to M0 US students and teachers look rm an offer to relocate al hotels near the embassy. The embassy bad not advised an evacuation ofBeijmgiisetfby the 1,500 America as living there al though traveuen have been warned to avoid China. Mr Gregsoa Edwards of the Australian Embassy ssid 21 Australian, three New Zealand and one Fijian stu dent had moved inioembas-•y residences. The Canadian and British embassies also provided refuge for stu dents. "Sporadic shooting continues," said a British Embassy official "We are advising British rtarioaaii, including Hongkong resi dents, in areas where there axe military particu larly Tiananmen Square, to carefully consider thru per sonal safety". The capitaTs 3,000 Japa nese residents and 370 Japa nese travel Im have not been told to leave but they have been advised to move if they was ordering an immediate suspension of government military sales •"•j commer cial export of weapons. "We deplore the decision 10 use force," Mr Bush told a hastily convened news con-He called on Chinese authorities "to avoid vio lence and to return to their previous policy of want to see a total break in ibis relationship" with China. Nonetheless, in an-thst in cluded between US sad Chinese military official*, he said: "We cannot condoee the vi olent attacks and cannot ig nore the consequences for our relstiooihip with ins." The Defence Depart-M was unable to provide immediately the value of The US has also offered China mote than 13 million tonnes of subsidised wheat since I9S7. It was not clear whether outstanding subsi dies were jeopardised by Mr Bush's moves. After reading s intern cm from the White House brief ing room, Mr Bush an swered questions and said be would not withdraw the US ambassador from Bei jing, as some have proposed. Mr Bush, a former US envoy to China, said he also would order US officials to give a "sympathetic review" to sny request by Chinese students for an extension of their slay in the US and would offer aisisiance through the international Red Cross. Mr Bush said demonstra tor! swept from Cbina'i Tiananmen Square by mili tary forces at the weekend wen "advocating basic hu man rights, including free dom of espression, freedom of the press and freedom of would be effected by the sus-pensioB sjujounced by Mr Bush. Ueutensm-Colond Rick Oboru, s Pcntsgoo spoken man, ssid four projects were still listed as "continuing", but that some of the older Thousands make run on Chinese banks THOUSANDS ef people HONGKONG'S itock market plunged nearly 22 per cent yesterday aa investors rushed to dump shares in Ibe wake of the weekend bloodshed in Beijing, prompting predictions that financial coaadence in the could take months to mend. Panic idling by local punters and in*' kntwrpodaboulHiaiJttc^ value of Hongkong shares and sent the key barometer, the Hang Seng index, ing 312 points to close at 2,093.61. It was the Hongkong market's BKond beavmt ooc day fall since 1949 and Ibe big gest loas sutce the October I9l7cra*h. leav ing the index, languishing almost 40 per cent below its level before the political crisis"! n China erupted in early May. Freniied scenes gripped the trading Boor of the Hongkong exchange from the opening bed, as dealers frantically fielded calls from investors unloading stock in re action to the brutal military crackdown. The Hang Seng index plummeted a mas sive 390 poiots in Ibe inorning session, and only recovered aome ground after the Hongkong Shanghai Bank intervened to tupport the market in the afternoon. "But don't move alone, travel with others." be said. The French, Swiss, Cana dian. Hungarian, Yugoslav, Italian and Portuguese em bassies have also taken mea sures to safeguard their na tionals in Beijing. The event lhat gripped the populace of the capital was the reported dash be tween two rival army units in the southern outskirts of Beijing (Caafd ea Page J, Cal I) Affairs David Naadtck Ntl'ffrfclTi' -We asset iwnagaa** that If we an bass a aaaeesattal ran an any aaa* as ear has at lag •yateas. It's going to The four transactions in cluded a US$91 Bullion sale of technology snd assistance in October 1913 to build an artillery ammunitioo plant; the sale of 35 avionics kit* lo modernise the electronic systems on Chinese F-g jet fighters, worth US*5SO mil lion; the salt of four MK-46 uxpedoes in February 19(6. valued at USSI million, and the sale in Jauary I9S7 of ar tillery-locating radar sets worth USS62 million. Colonel Oborn said the Pentagon did not have any statisUca available on on-jo int, commercial iransac-Tbe US-Chinese rela tionship has blossomed on economic, military *ad po litical fronts since form si diplomatic relation! were established in 1979. Since that time, the Unit ed Slates has sold more than USS74S million in arms to China, most recently a USSI00 million deal in which Beijing purchased six Chinook CH-47D belicop-Hc added: "Throughout the world we itand with those who seek greater free dom snd democracy." Mr Bush said he was al-tempting to forge a careful response to the situation in China, and had rejected ad vice from some wbo recom mended the withdrawal of the US ambassador. He said the ambassador had been active in monitor ing events in Beijing and provided an important re source for the US. "I don't want to see a to tal break in this relationship and I will not encourage a to tal break," be ssid. "When you sec these kids struggling for democracy and freedom, this would be a bad lime for the United Slates to with draw." Until yetterday'i press conference, Mr Bush had lit tle to say on China as he wound up a weekend of rest and relaxation at hit vaca-lioo home on the Maine coast after a four-nation Eu ropean visit and a NATO summit Former Secretary of Slate Henry Kissinger, who helped forge the first US lies with China dunng President Richard Nixon'i term, also advised that the president "can't afford emotional outbursts" in the present sit-Before Mr Buih an nounced the suspension of armi salei, Dr Kissinger warned lhat imposing eco nomic isncliont would (C—I'd — Psa* 3. Cal I) any dip isltars, siapU who had sarrewsd tress dM beak adust be |rissaa ta repay rbaVbaas. Bank, affected by lha fr,,'^j^.^ LTW'efC^ 'bay did awl waat ta - (Cewfe M Pass t. Cat I) aad Sean Saa Beak, China Governor seeks meeting with Howe Press DAVID WALLEN In Leaden aad DAPHNE CHENG with British Foreign Secre tary, Sir Geoffrey Howe, on the twin crises for Hongkong following the Woody crack down in China and Ibe ar rival of thousands of Viet-namese boat people. Sir David postponed un til tomorrow a trip to Lon don because of the weekend bloodshed in Beijing. Yesterday, he met the bead of China i de facto em-bsisy, Mr Xu Jiaiun, lo whom he expressed the full esieni of revulsion felt local ly over the use of violence against ciriiens in Beijing, THE Persian Secretary, Sir Geoffrey aeaerftsd as Britain's "shack and oatnaV* Hewe, lest asset tsUra»B«^ al want base aaaa hasp •• tan • gMjfasg la lbs alleasl imini Ptp as Cabas ay the Prlace end Praacaas af Wake was "aaaabtk-Some Tory MPs art "*U • ••na^whh (W CaJasw. charga daflaJno Sena Mfagjiang- The royal ceupkt had pleased ta v TW Chary* •'•rhsros m »••—•«- ta China (rasa Ne*tme*r I to 6 eeforo going « the Foreign Offlco la bear what Sir Geeflrey the Hiagkawg for twe days. Sir David also asked for the co-operation of Chinese authorities in ensuring the safety of Hongkong people ta the capital, a siatcmenl -aid. Sir David was scheduled lo appear before appear lonwnuw uciurc U^J House of Commons For eign Affairs Committee (FAQ inquiry into Hong kong. He has postponed the session until June 13 to al low time for him to meet British ministers snd offi-ciali in London. He was trying 10 arrange a meeting with Sir Geoffrey, but sources said nothing had been decided. Sir Geoffrey faced the an ger of a number of Conser vative rank and file MPs yesterday, who accused him of making excuses for the Chinese Govern mem over the massacre in Beijing. He snd Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher will face demands in parliament to day to end the "shameful muled response" to the slaughter and lo break off diplomatic relation! with China. designed to convince ibe Government that Britain must register its protest and horror in a far more effecti ve way than has been done so i Feirbaim, a Coniervative MP, laid: "Here we are flaunting our friendship with China and ma kin | the molt limited condemnation aboul thii most blood-curdling atro-ciiy-"This would never occur in South Africa, yet they, an advanced weapon democra cy, we abhor and China we hardly condemn for the worst brutality since Russia invaded Czechoslovskis. Il (Cont'd an Pas* t, Cal 1) Over 1,100 boat people sail into HK ANOTHER 1.103 boat peo ple sailed into Hongkong in 20 boats yeilcrday - the highest single figure in one day since 1979. It takes the arrivals in the first five days of June to 3,091 and in the past eight days to 3.697, an average of more than 700 a day. More than 2,000 of the arrivals in the last five days are being held on the Solo Islands with scam shelter, but most of the Vietnamese are being detained off Tai Ah Chau in the boat* they arrived in. while some have been allowed ashore, a no port: Papa 9 Solidarity set to sweep polls ocratic elections siace World War II and possibly even ousted top communist officials in ibe existing par liament The early returns tabu lated by the Solidarity Citi zens Committee represented a small number of the more than 16 million votes cast on Sunday. A final official count was not expected until Voters telected candi dates for the erilling 460-member Sejm and s new 100-member Senste, si agreed to in reforms worked oui by the Government and Solidariiy-kd opposition in talki earlier this year. I for candidates from the ruling communist party sad its allies, but the reaisindcr and all 100 Sea-ate seats were open to oppo sition candidates. None of the early unoffi cial returns showed commit-nilt candidates winning races for the Senate, raising the possibility of a Solidarity iweep in the tint freely elect ed legislative chamber in the East bloc. The iiate-controlled me dia reported no voting re sults, only turnout figures. In Gdansk. Solidarity leader Lech Walesa was tak ing a cautious approach. "Ii'i loo early (fori con-gratulaiioni. and we don'l have complete information yet" he tokJ reporters who cornered him outside the rectory of Si Brygida's Church, a Solidarity strong hold. In Warsaw, Solidarity supporters cheeird and at least one onlooker broke Into joyous tears as partial results were posted in cam paign headquarter windows, showing the Solidarity slate drawing between 63 per cent snd 73 per cent of the votes across the board. With 139 of 1.233 voting itaiioni in Warsaw report ing. Solidarity candidates for the three Senate scat! from the city led easily. The Solidarity tallies showed all had obtained more than 70 per cent of lhe valid voles cast. The numbers were si mi ls r in races for Ihe Sejm. INDEX CLASSIFIED POST PaUk S L*fal Nadcaa_ WEATHER Hot wrth aunny pnrioda 32 de^aae. Saw Page 2. COMTF.SSE. THE HANDMADE PERFECTION. 

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