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The growth centre strategy in the context of a planning process framework for Africa : the Zambian case Paulson, Phillip Martin 1975

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THE GROWTH C E N T R E STRATEGY IN THE CONTEXT OF A PLANNING PROCESS FRAMEWORK FOR AFRICA: THE ZAM BIAN CASE by PHILLIP MARTIN 'PAULSON B.A. University of California, Los Angeles, 1970 A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PAR T I A L F U L F I L L M E N T OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE D E G R E E OF MASTER OF ARTS in the School of Community and Regional Planning We accept this thesis as conforming to the required standard THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA Aujrust . 1975 n presenting th i s thesis i in pa r t i a l fu l f i lment of the requirements for an advanced degree at the Un ivers i ty of B r i t i s h Columbia, I agree that the L ibrary sha l l make it f ree ly ava i l ab le for reference and study. I fur ther agree that permission for extensive copying of th is thes i s for s cho la r l y purposes may be granted by the Head of my Department or by his representat ives. It is understood that copying or pub l i ca t ion of th is thes is f o r f i nanc ia l gain sha l l not be allowed without my writ ten permiss ion. Department The Univers i ty of B r i t i s h Columbia 2075 Wesbrook Place Vancouver, Canada V6T 1W5 i i A B S T R A C T The development of African societies will be influenced by the ap-plication of national development plans. Most African governments have fully adopted the concept of central planning as a means of guiding the the improvement of their societies. However, many of these national plans have proved unsuccessful. This study is an attempt to examine the problems and issue's associated with national planning in A f r i c a and to indicate some of the considerations involved in African devel-opment. The principal theme centres on the means whereby nation-al planning and development in A f r i c a might be improved. The methodology employed in this study is based primarily upon a literature review technique. The main emphasis is on theoretical and descriptive material analysis; data limitations also reinforce the qualitative approach applied to this subject. Much of the information is aggregated to provide generalizations about African countries, with the example of Zambia employed to present a more specific study of the general issues. Several hypotheses are tested in order to provide a systematic evaluation of some key issues involved in this study. The complex issues of the study are organized to concen-trate on the African planning process, and the growth centre developmental strategy. Based on the general description of the developmental environment in Africa , the key aspects which affect national planning appear to be: the predominantly rural nature of African societies; the high rates of urbanization and their related problems; and the predominance of interregional imbalances within each African country. Another factor which emerges is the amount of diversity between countries as well as within each country. F r o m a review and analysis of African national planning, many problems and constraints to effective planning are evident. National plans are influenced by economic, social and political factors indigenous to each country, but they are also affected by international groups and forces over which African countries have no control. In order to accommodate these forces, a stand-ardized planning process framework is suggested which might lead to more realistic, practical and implementable plans. The growth centre theory is analyzed to test both the applicability of this framework and the viability of this develop-mental strategy in the context of this process model. This strat-egy is examined from the theoretical point of view as well as from its application by several African countries. Zambia is used as a case study to analyze the effectiveness of a specific national plan and planning process; it is also used to describe the potential utilization of the growth centre strategy. F r o m this example, it appears that the proposed process framework could have solved some of the problems associated with Zambian planning, and that the growth centre strategy could be an effective means of achieving the developmental goals that were stated by the Zambian Government. The main conclusion which may be drawn is that planning is a necessary, but often insufficient antecedent for development in A f r i c a . Development is a long-term process which should aim at the improvement of society and the movement towards a desired state of being. Planning must be comprehensive in its analysis and application of all factors which affect development in Africa, iv and this seemingly requires an ordered, evolving planning process. Additionally, because African countries are sti l l subject to exploi-tation, both by external forces and from within, i . e. the domin-ation of r u r a l areas by the urban centres, there is increasing concern with the spatial and functional ordering of national land-scapes. The growth centre strategy, based upon central place concepts, appears to be compatible both with the type of planning and the developmental goals necessary to promote African develop-ment. Although there are no guaranteed methods of achieving desirable development, an improved planning methodology and a concrete strategy may improve the opportunity for successful development in A f r i c a . T A B L E OF CONTENTS A B S T R A C T LIST OF T A B L E S LIST OF M A P S AND FIGURES LIST OF APPENDIX Chapter I THE C H A L L E N G E OF D E V E L O P M E N T IN TROPICAL AFRICA INTRODUCTION G E N E R A L I Z E D DESCRIPTION OF TROPICAL AFRICA Political Factors African Dualism Economic Factors Social Factors CITIES AND REGIONS IN TROPICAL AFRICA Urbanization Regional Imbalances Rural-Urban Migration HYPOTHESES F O R M U L A T I O N II D E V E L O P M E N T A L PLANNING IN A F R I C A -A G E N E R A L DESCRIPTION INTRODUCTION THE R O L E OF PLANNING IN AFRICA E F F E C T I V E N E S S OF AFRICAN PLANNING PAST DIFFICULTIES IN THE PLANNING PROCESS Interpretation of Plans Formulation of Plans Composition of Plans Execution of Plans CONSTRAINTS ON T H E A F R I C A N PLANNING PROCESS Administrative Constraints Social Constraints Political Constraints Economic Constraints CONCLUSIONS C O N C E P T U A L F R A M E W O R K FOR T H E PLANNING PROCESS INTRODUCTION BASIC CONSIDERATIONS OF THE PLANNING PROCESS Comprehensiveness Regionalization Data Limitations F R A M E W O R K OF T H E PLANNING PROCESS DESCRIPTION OF THE COMPONENTS Current Status Political and Administrative Structure .vii Page Planning Organization 81 National Goals and Objectives 82 Strategies 83 Policies 84 Plans 85 APPLICATION OF THE PROCESS 87 IV THE GROWTH C E N T R E S T R A T E G Y IN AFRICA INTRODUCTION 88 GROWTH C E N T R E THEORY 89 'GROWTH C E N T R E S ' AND C E N T R A L P L A C E S IN AFRICA 92 GROWTH CENTRES IN TANZANIA 96 Dar es Salaam Master Plan 97 Dar es Salaam Regional Plan 98 Physical Development Plan for the Handeni District 99 Growth Centres and Growth Potential 100 GROWTH CENTRES IN GHANA 103 Reorganizing the Countryside 106 GROWTH C E N T R E S IN K E N Y A 107 ANALYSES OF A F R I C A N GROWTH CENTRES 112 CONCLUSION 114 V ZAMBIA: D E V E L O P M E N T PLANS AND GROW T H CENTRES INTRODUCTION 116 Page Chapter PHYSICAL, POLITICAL AND DEMOGRAPHIC F E A T U R E S OF ZAMBIA 116 General Description 116 Population Distribution 121 ECONOMY OF ZAMBIA 12 5 General Description 125 Constraints on the Economy 128 FIRST NATIONAL D E V E L O P M E N T P L A N 1966 - 1970 129 Basic Goals and Objectives 130 Planning Process " 132 Results of the Plan 134 Analysis of the First National Development Plan 137 KASAMA: E X A M P L E OF A R U R A L GROWTH C E N T R E ' 140 Feasibility of the Growth Centre Strategy 141 Kasama 143 Kasama as a Growth Centre 147 CONCLUSION 149 VI CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS INTRODUCTION 150 CONCLUSIONS BASED ON T H E ANALYSES OF HYPOTHESES 150 R E F E R E N C E S . 159 APPENDIX 170 i x LIST OF T A B L E S Table Page I Percentage Distribution of GDP in Tropical Africa 10 II GNP Per Capita in Tropical Africa 13 III Population and Growth Rates in Tropical Africa (1971) 17 IVa Population Densities for World Areas 19 IVb Population Densities in Tropical Africa 19 V Population and Urbanization in Tropical Africa (1970) 23 VI Zambia: Population of Main Towns 124 VII Zambia: Gross Domestic Product by Sector at Current Prices, 1964 and 1969 127 VIII Zambia: Population of the Northern Province and Districts 144 X LIST OF MAPS AND FIGURES Map 1 Delimitation of Tropical Africa 2 ' Tropical Africa: Cities of More Than 100, 000 Population 3 Zambia in Africa 4 Zambia: Administrative Divisions 5 Zambia: Urban Areas Figure Page 5 26 117 120 123 1 Proposed National Planning Process Framework 72 APPENDIX Appendix Page I An Example of a Proposed Functional Hierarchy of Settlements 170 1 C H A P T E R I T H E C H A L L E N G E O F D E V E L O P M E N T I N T R O P I C A L A F R I C A " T h e c h a l l e n g e t o d e v e l o p m e n t p l a n n i n g i n T r o p i c a l A f r i c a l i e s i n i t s i m p l i c a t i o n s f o r m i g r a t i o n , u r b a n i z a t i o n , r u r a l d e v e l o p -m e n t a n d i n t e r r e g i o n a l b a l a n c e . " ( E l - S h a k h s , 1 9 7 4 : 4 ) I N T R O D U C T I O N T h e i d e a s e m b o d i e d i n t h e a b o v e s t a t e m e n t d e s c r i b e t h e c u r r e n t d i r e c t i o n a n d a t t i t u d e o f m a n y o f t h o s e d e d i c a t e d t o t h e t a s k o f a c h i e v i n g d e v e l o p m e n t a n d g r o w t h i n T r o p i c a l A f r i c a . I t i s a n e x c i t i n g a n d d i f f i c u l t c h a l l e n g e , a n d a r a t i o n a l a p p r o a c h t o t h e p r o b l e m s f a c i n g t h e A f r i c a n c o u n t r i e s , T h e e x p e r i e n c e s o f t h e 1 9 6 0 ' s h a v e p r o v e d d e v e l o p m e n t t o b e a m o r e c o m p l e x a n d l o n g - t e r m p r o c e s s t h a n e n v i s a g e d b y t h e w e l l - i n t e n t i o n e d , b u t i n e x p e r i e n c e d , l e a d e r s o f p o s t c o l o n i a l A f r i c a . W h i l e s o m e o f t h e i r o p t i m i s m f o r q u i c k s u c c e s s m a y h a v e s u b s i d e d , ; t h e i r e a g e r n e s s a n d m o t i v a t i o n f o r t h e b e t t e r m e n t o f t h e i r s o c i e t i e s r e m a i n s . T h e r e i s n o s i m p l e , d i r e c t p a t h t o d e v e l o p m e n t f o r T r o p i c a l A f r i c a , n o r i s t h e r e a s i n -g u l a r s t r a t e g y a p p l i c a b l e t o a l l c o u n t r i e s . B u t c o m p r e h e n s i v e d e v e l o p m e n t s t r a t e g i e s c a n b e d e v i s e d b a s e d o n a n u n d e r s t a n d i n g o f t h e p r o c e s s e s o f m i g r a t i o n , r u r a l d e v e l o p m e n t , i n t e r r e g i o n a l i m b a l a n c e s a n d u r b a n i z a t i o n . T h e s e a r e c r i t i c a l f a c t o r s w h i c h m u s t b e i n c o r p o r a t e d i n t o t h e p l a n n i n g p r o c e s s , f r o m t h e f o r m u l a t i o n o f g o a l s t o t h e s e l e c t i o n o f s t r a t e g i e s t o t h e i m p l e m e n t a t i o n o f p l a n s . T h i s s h i f t i n e m p h a s i s h a s o c c u r r e d o v e r t i m e a s b o t h t h e r o l e o f p l a n n i n g a n d t h e o b j e c t i v e s o f d e v e l o p m e n t h a v e b e e n q u e s t i o n e d a n d r e f o r m u l a t e d . D e v e l o p m e n t n o l o n g e r i s c o n f i n e d t o t h e g o a l s o f i n c r e a s e d p e r c a p i t a i n c o m e a n d t h e a g g r e g a t e g r o w t h o f t h e n a t i o n a l e c o n o m y . P l a n n i n g i s n o l o n g e r a n i n -v e n t o r y o f u n c o o r d i n a t e d s e c t o r a l a n d p u b l i c i n v e s t m e n t p r o p o s a l s . I n d u s t r i a l g r o w t h i s n o l o n g e r t h e p r i m e t a r g e t o f t h e g o v e r n m e n t a n d p l a n n i n g b o d i e s . T h e p r o b l e m s r e s u l t i n g f r o m t h i s c o m p l e x s i t u a t i o n a n d t h e i n a d e q u a c i e s o f p a s t e f f o r t s h a v e f o r c e d a r e -e v a l u a t i o n o f d e v e l o p m e n t a l p l a n n i n g . D e v e l o p m e n t i s n o w r e c o g n i z e d t o e n c o m p a s s m u c h m o r e t h a n e c o n o m i c g r o w t h a n d i n d u s t r i a l i z a t i o n -" w e n e e d s o m e r e f o r m u l a t i o n o f t h e g o a l s o f d e v e l o p m e n t . I t w i l l n o t d o t o t h i n k i n t e r m s o f f u l l e m p l o y m e n t , l e v e l s o f o u t p u t , o p t i m u m r a t e s o f g r o w t h , e t c . " ( R o d w i n , 1 9 6 1 : 1 4 0 ) D e v e l o p m e n t i s s t i l l c o n c e r n e d w i t h i n c r e a s i n g t h e m a t e r i a l w e l l -b e i n g o f a l l m e m b e r s o f t h e s o c i e t y ; a d d i t i o n a l l y , i t i s c o n c e r n e d w i t h g e n e r a t i n g s p a t i a l , c u l t u r a l a n d s o c i a l c h a n g e s w i t h i n t h e s o c i e t y . P r e v i o u s l y i t w a s a s s u m e d t h e e c o n o m i c g r o w t h w o u l d p r o d u c e t h e s e c h a n g e s , b u t n o w i t i s b e l i e v e d t h a t t h e s e g e o g r a p h -i c a n d i n s t i t u t i o n a l c h a n g e s a r e t h e p r e r e q u i s i t e s f o r g r o w t h . T h e p r e v i o u s n a r r o w d e f i n i t i o n o f d e v e l o p m e n t h a s b e e n e x p a n d e d t o i n c l u d e s u c h i n t a n g i b l e o b j e c t i v e s a s n a t i o n a l i n t e g r a t i o n , m o d e r n -i z a t i o n , e q u i t y a n d j u s t i c e - a s w e l l a s e c o n o m i c i n d e p e n d e n c e a n d e c o n o m i c g r o w t h . U r b a n i z a t i o n h a s b e c o m e a p r i m e f o c u s o f a t t e n t i o n t o t h i s r e c e n t o r i e n t a t i o n ; i t i s v i e w e d a s b o t h a p a r t o f a n d a n e x p r e s s i o n o f t h e p r o c e s s o f d e v e l o p m e n t ( E l - S h a k h s , 1 9 7 4 ) . B y r e d e f i n i n g d e v e l o p m e n t a n d i t s p r o c e s s e s , t h e r o l e o f p l a n n i n g h a s a l s o c h a n g e d . P l a n n i n g h a s e v o l v e d i n t o a m u c h broader and comprehensive role, and there is more opportunity to provide the guidelines for coordinating efforts to achieve selected national goals and priorities. In the context of these chosen goals and the concern with spatial integration and the urbanization process, the planning function is to develop plans and policies linking the objectives of social, political and cultural change with their occurrence in geographic space. As Mlia (1974: 75) says: "Over the past two decades there has been a growing awareness of the shortcomings of traditional economic planning, which emphasized sectoral analysis and overall national econ-omic objectives and paid little or no attention to the spatial incidence of development. It is now argued that a developing nation's desire for rapid economic growth, modernization and national integration is likely to be frustrated unless develop-ment planning explicitly addresses itself to the problems of spatial and social integration. " ' | Development planning in Tropical Africa is a broad and complex subject. It is necessary to understand the current objectives of development and the current attitudes toward plan-ning; these in turn help to explain the increased awareness of the urbanization process and its relation to rural under-development, regional imbalances, and rural-urban migration. These factors and the spatial impact of alternative strategies must be consid-ered when policies and plans are formulated. These character-istics of Tropical Africa can no longer be treated as exogenous factors in the planning process. Instead, these circumstances should be the subject of deliberate and comprehensive policies which harness these phenomena as assets to development. G E N E R A L I Z E D DESCRIPTION OF TROPICAL AFRICA In order to study the prospects and potential strategies for development in Tropical Africa, it is necessary to have a basic understanding of some of the unique characteristics of this area While the description is general, most of the factors discussed below exist in varying degrees in the countries of Tropical Africe Specific examples can be used to illustrate some of the general-izations. This basic overview will establish the environment in which developmental planning must operate. Although there are many characteristics common to all areas within the developing world, the focus of this discussion will be on those aspects which are of particular importance to Tropical Africa. As a study area, Tropical Africa will be defined as those independent countries south of the Sahara which are governed by and predominantly populated by Black Africans. Although a large variety of definitions exist, this delimitation criteria will be used throughout this study. This would exclude the countries below the Sahara which are colonies and/or governed by white minorities. For practical purposes, the terms Africa , Black Africa , Sub-Sahara and African will be synonymous with the area defined as Tropical Africa , and will be understood to be a generalization for countries within this classification (see Map 1). Political Factors. The African countries are relative newcomers to political independence. After long struggles, most of them have achieved their independence within the past two decades. The colonial experience, as recent as it was, has left an imprint on the countries which exerts a major influence. Inex perienced African leaders were thrust into self-government, inhe iting all of the problems but not the resources of their prede-5 M A P 1 DELIMITATION OF T R O P I C A L A F R I C A MAURITANIA Nouofcchoit Aa M . SENEGAL THE - F 6AMBIAte=> J PORTUGUESE^" GUINEA< GUINEA UPPER X*' .-'.VOLTA. L I rrOAHOMEY C o t , K X. ( ' — v T0G0( ' „,.,„.. hmm. K >VIV0RY GHANA I A N,GERIA SIERRA LEONE" ^ COAST U«„ UBERIA^ *ai"> \ \ „ CENTRAL\. -'"TCA-MEROON, AFRICAN^ REPUBUC^  9 vgui I W O M U N I — * r ~ ^ ' F S J O T O M I M d i i Abobo \ ^ f T H , 0 P I A SOMALIA i UGANDAN, / ««~?'* KENYA j A F R I C A POUTICAL DIVISIONS • Capital 0 M U f . 5 SOO 0 JOO 1000 M t O M E T O S Tropical Africa Source: Markowitz, L . Politics and. Society in Africa , 1970 6 c e s s o r s . C o m b i n e d w i t h i n t e n s e t r i b a l a n d e t h n i c d i v e r s i t i e s , t h e p o l i t -i c a l s i t u a t i o n i n p o s t - c o l o n i a l A f r i c a h a s b e e n f a r f r o m s t a b l e . T h e p o l i t i c a l s y s t e r n s a r e n o t w e l l - d e f i n e d a n d l a r g e a m o u n t s o f t i m e a n d e n e r g y a r e r e q u i r e d t o s i m p l y m a i n t a i n g o v e r n m e n t p o w e r . T h e r e a r e s t i l l p r o b l e m s o f n a t i o n a l u n i t y a n d l e g i t i m a c y , " t h e s o l u t i o n o f w h i c h m u s t b e a m a j o r g o a l o f p o l i t i c a l l e a d e r s h i p " ( L e y s , 1 9 7 1 : 1 1 5 ) ' . T h i s l e a d e r s h i p c r i s i s , a s d e s c r i b e d b y M a b o g u n j e ( 1 9 7 4 ) , i s a r e s u l t o f i n a d e q u a t e p r e p a r a t i o n b y c o l o n i a l p o w e r s a n d p e r m e a t e s d o w n t o l o c a l l e a d e r s h i p l e v e l s . T h e l e a d e r s h i p s k i l l s m u s t b e d e v e l o p e d b y t r i a l a n d e r r o r m e t h o d s , a n d t i m e . i s a n e c e s s a r y i n g r e d i e n t i n a c q u i r i n g g o v e r n m e n t a l c o m p e t e n c e . T h e f a c t i o n a l i s m a n d c o n t i n u o u s s t r u g g l e f o r p o w e r a m o n g g r o u p s w i t h i n a c o u n t r y o f t e n i n f l u e n c e s t h e t y p e s o f i n v e s t m e n t s a n d d e v e l o p m e n t a l d e c i s i o n s m a d e b y g o v e r n m e n t s . T h a t i s , t h e c h o i c e s o f o b j e c t i v e s a n d p r o g r a m m e s b y t h e g o v e r n m e n t m a y b e m a d e o n p o l i t i c a l l y p r a c t i c a l r a t h e r t h a n e c o n o m i c a l l y e f f i c i e n t g r o u n d s . A n a s L e y s ( 1 9 7 1 ) p o i n t s o u t , e c o n o m i c d e v e l o p m e n t i s o n l y o n e o f t h e g o a l s b e i n g p u r s u e d b y a g o v e r n m e n t a t a n y o n e t i m e . A l t h o u g h i t i s a d e s i r e d g o a l f o r m a n y r e a s o n s , i t i s n o t a p a r a m o u n t o b j e c t i v e . I n o t h e r w o r d s , e c o n o m i c d e v e l o p m e n t m u s t b e v i e w e d a s o n l y o n e a s p e c t o f t h e g o a l s f r a m e w o r k w i t h i n t h e p o l i t i c a l s t r u c t u r e s o f A f r i c a . A n u n d e r s t a n d i n g o f t h e c r i t i c a l r o l e t h a t t h e p o l i t i c a l s i t u a t i o n p l a y s i n d e v e l o p m e n t a l p l a n n i n g i s e s s e n t i a l . T h i s i s i m p o r t a n t n o t o n l y i n t e r m s i f u n d e r s t a n d i n g p a s t p e r f o r m a n c e s b u t a l s o i n t h e c u r r e n t a t t i t u d e s t o w a r d d e v e l o p m e n t a n d p l a n n i n g . T h e v o l a t i l e p o l i t i c a l s i t u a t i o n i n t h e p a s t h a s l e d m a n y a u t h o r s 7 to stress the difficulties involved in attempting to generate economic growth and development in the African setting. Rosser (1972 : 59) exemplifies this attitude: "...the turbulent climate since independence in most African countries has scarcely been favorable even had the practical experience of government existed -- for the for-mulation and implementation of orderly and systematic strategies of national development. " On the other hand, the experiences of the past provide a more favourable outlook for the future. Although there is sti l l some instability and political in-fighting, this situation must be accepted as a given and utilized to the advantage of the future planning process. Planners should be guided by their knowledge of political systems and include the concepts of political support and national unity among their development objectives. That is, as Jackson (1970 : 200) states: "...the goals of political support and economic growth need not be contradictory. . . planners should not view politics or political aims simply as constraints on economic ration-ality; rather, politics might be more productively regarded as a lever by means of which plans and decisions justified on economic grounds can be effected. " There is little doubt that, good or bad, the indigenous political framework and operation exerts a major influence on the nature of development and planning in A f r i c a . .African Dualism. Most African countries can be character-ized by the existence of a pronounced dichotomy between many features within their societies. Although this concept is most noticeably applied to the structure of the economy, it is appar-ent also in social fields. While there are some dualistic ten-dencies in most nations, the extreme divergences inherent in African dualism make this a salient feature in an appreciation 8 of the problems of developmental planning. A brief description of the major categories of dualism will serve as an introduction to other characteristics of Black A f r i c a . The most familiar application of this phenomenon is econ-omic dualism. This has been discussed in several sources, among them Rodwin (1961), Rosser (1972), Seidman (1970), Baldwin (1967), Hodder (1968) and Streeten (1971). The basic dichotomy is between the manufacturing and primary products export enclaves and the traditional, subsistence producers. The 'modern' sector includes higher levels of productivity, modern technology, wage employment, broader markets and monetized markets. This part of the economy includes a minority of the total national population and is generally associated with large urban centres. The subsistence sector, occupying most of the national territory and including the major-ity of the population, has characteristically lower productivity, tra-ditional technology, localized markets and is often only on the fringe of a money economy. The effects and implications of this dualism are far-reaching in the African context. Other indices of dualism can be found in the following dichotomies: ru r a l versus urban orientation; modern versus traditional attitudes; educated versus non-educated; nationally oriented versus locally oriented; strong versus weak kinship ties; class versus tribal status; political versus apolitical; etc. These can a l l be used as indicators of the levels of dualism existent in any country at a particular time. The extent to which dualism pervades the social, political and economic character of the country will influence the type of development process that 9 can be utilized by the planners and politicians. It is important to understand the wide range of social and economic concerns that exist within the same country. Economic Factors. The basic description of the 'modern' and 'traditional' sectors introduces some of the characteristics of the African economy. The majority of the populat ion is involved.in subsistence agriculture, cottage industries and primary resource extraction associated with the rural area. The primary export commodities consist of a few main products that require little or no processing - - i .e . cocoa, sisal, diamonds, coffee, rubber, copper, etc. In many cases, these commodities contribute the major proportion of national output and account for well over fifty per cent of the foreign exchange (Bhagwati, 1966). There is only a limited manufacturing sector that accounts for a low percentage of the gross domestic product (see Table I). The proportion of national output that is obtained from manufact-uring is usually based on first stage mineral and agricultural processing industries; the extent of capital goods industries is very low in Africa . Many of the manufactured goods, if not for export, consist of basic consumer goods and import substit-ution goods, often of inferior quality to previous products. With a low level of manufacturing output, most African countries import a high proportion of goods, most notably capital and luxury goods. Because of the low level of diversity within the manufacturing sector and the reliance upon a few major export-earning crops/ resources, the African nations are heavily affected by fluctuations in world markets. 10 T A B L E I P E R C E N T A G E DISTRIBUTION OF GDP IN T R O P I C A L AFRICA Country ID u ^ «4-l O Year <; ^ H ""D o u CO CO CO g ^ ° £ CO £ 2 6 * 12 EJ C <u d K f! ^ ^ fH fH O O + J h H U 'il O S Botswana 1971 2 9 20 8 10 7 4 19 Cameroon 1967 50 2 0 9 -- 9 -- 11 Central African 1079 31 18 13 4 20 3 19 Republic Dahomey . 1967 36 7 6 4 19 6 20 Ethiopia 1971 51 11 . 10 4 8 4 15 Gabon 1972 13 42 8 11 16 4 13 Ghana 1970 47 16 13 4 11 3 15 Ivory Coast 1969 30 14 -- 28 -- 13 Kenya 1972 31 13 11 5 9 7 26 Lesotho 1967 62 3 1 2 5 1 22 Liberia 1970 19 33 5 4 17 6 16 Malawi 1971 46 .12 11 4 8 4 13 Niger 1969 51 7 6 3 15 3 20 Nigeria 1969 45 15 7 4 12 4 13 Sudan 1970 35 12 10 4 18 8 23 Swaziland 1970 30 24 11 2 7 7 22 Tanzania 1972 36 11 9 5 12 8 19 Togo 1969 43 19 11 3 19 7 10 Uganda 1971 48 10 8 1 11 3 17 Upper Volta 1968 44 10 10 2 16 5 23 Zaire 1970 8 50 19 1 20 15 6 Zambia .1970 7 49 11 7 11 4 19 Includes agriculture, hunting, forestry and fishing Includes mining, manufacturing, electricity, gas and water Includes finance, insurance, real estate; community, social and personal services; public administration and defense Source: United Nations Statistical Yearbook 1973 i l The wage economy i s generally s m a l l and p r i m a r i l y concen-trated i n a few major urban areas. These are the, centres of i n d u s t r i a l a c t i v i t y . However, there are weak or insignificant i n t e r -s e c t o r a l and i n t e r r e g i o n a l linkages within the i n d u s t r i a l sector, so there are m i n i m a l complementary flows between stages of production. But the building up of i n f r a s t r u c t u r e and the a v a i l a b l i t y ; of large supplies of labour i n the urban areas continues the concentration of i n d u s t r i a l a c t i v i t i e s i n a few spatial locations. Although much of the labour force i s unskilled, the m a j o r i t y of the wage-earners and s a l a r i e d employees are associated with the urban i n d u s t r i a l complexes. L a s t l y , the l i m i t e d i n d u s t r i a l a c t i v i t i e s that do exist i n A f r i c a have often tended to use capital-intensive technology and production methods, thereby further l i m i t i n g the access to wage-earning jobs. T r o p i c a l A f r i c a , as w e l l as most other parts of the 'developing' world, i s often thought to suffer f r o m i n f e r i o r natural c a p a b i l i t i e s f o r economic growth. The s o i l , the vegetation, the clim a t e and the natural resources are often described as l i m i t a t i o n s to economic development. The effects of these p h y s i c a l atributes are often c l a i m e d to exert a heavy t o l l on the productivity and the capacity of the human resources within these c l i m e s . Hodder ( 1 9 6 9 ) disputes these notions. Although the T r o p i c s do exert some impositions on potential development, Hodder c l a i m s that i t i s a lack of information and knowledge about dealing with these conditions that effect development. The available resources and potentials for growth are good, but inadequate studies about 12 s°lutionsto some of the problems and the added cost factors are the main constraints to development in Tropical A f r i c a . Many of these problems can be overcome with increased, specialized tech-nology, and a better understanding of the existing social institutions. Other characteristics of the economy also play a significant role in the development potential of A f r i c a . Several of these are interrelated to the factors mentioned above. Accompanying the shortage of trained leaders at all levels of the government is a shortage of entrepreneurs and skilled businessmen. Although this shortage has prevented the growth of indigenous small-scale enter-prises, it must be understood in light of the social factors within A f r i c a (Marris, 1967). In conjunction with this factor is the relative narrowness of the market economy it is not sufficient-ly diffused throughout the national space to support a large pro-liferation of local and small-scale businesses. Finally, and perhaps most significantly in terms of development planning, there is a scarcity of funds available to the governments to invest in devel-opmental projects. The general economic situation in A f r i c a does nottypically provide a large surplus of funds for national govern-ments. The lack of investible capital, both public and private, serves to maintain the relatively poor economic status of the African countries. Table II illustrates the economic position of African countries. Although GNP per capita is not a completely adequate measure-ment of individual wealth and well-being of the population, it is one of the few tangible indices available for comparison. Only three countries had a GNP per capita higher than. $300 (U.S.) 13 T A B L E II GNP PER CAPITA IN T R O P I C A L A F R I C A (1971) Growth Rates (%) Country- Amount (U.S.$) 1960-71 1965-71 Gabon 700 5.2 7.7 Zambia 380 3.2 L.0 Ivory Coast 330 4.6 4.4 Congo 270 0.9 1.4 Ghana 250 0.0 -2.1 Senegal 250 -0.4 -1.2 Li b e r i a 210 2.5 3. 8 Sierre Leone 200 3.9 4.7 Cameroon 200 4.0 3.7 Swaziland 190 4.7 0.9 Mauritania 170 5.7 2.1 Botswana 160 3.2 4.9 Kenya 160 3.5 4.3 Central African Republic 150 0.4 1.6 Togo 150 .4.6 2.5 Gambia 140 3.6 2.1 Nigeria 140 2.1 2.7 Uganda 130 2.1 . 1.6 Sudan 120 -0.9 Tanzania 110 3.1 3.3 Niger 100 -2.5 1.8 Dahomey 100 0.8 -4.4 Lesotho 100 0.0 0.5 Guinea 90 0.1 0.3 Malawi 90 2.5 2.3 Zaire 90 2.9 3.6 Chad 80 0.6 2. 2 Ethiopia 80 2.7 1.2 Mali 70 1.4 1.0 Somalia 70 -0.9 0.8 Upper Volta 70 0.9 1.7 Burundi 60 1.1 0.5 Rwanda 60 -0. 8 2.2 Source: World Bank Atlas for Per Capita Production, Population and Growth Rates, 1973 14 in 1971. Relative to other countries, the majority of African countries fe l l in the lowest one-third in terms of per capita GNP. Although it is encouraging to point to the relatively high growth rates for some of the countries, there are several countries facing low or regressive growth rates over the time period. As imperfect as these indices are, there are two significant conclu-sions to be drawn: one, A f r i c a as a whole remains at a low level of development; and two, there are wide disparities in econ-omic development and growth among the African countries. Social Factors. Many of the social factors characteristic of Tropical A f r i c a have been mentioned indirectly in the previous discussion. Social factors are linked closely with political and economic factors and directly affect them. The dualistic nature of African societies can be viewed as the distinction between tradi-tionalism and modernism as it affects many daily situations. There is an entire spectrum of values, attitudes and institutions in each African country limiting the extent of national integration and cohesion. This would include the different attitudes toward health, religion, marriage, success, kinship, education, and leisure. This can be attributed in part to the various levels of exposure and amount of contact with the more modern ele-ments in the society. Complementing the forces of communication and contact are the large ethnic and tribal diversities. Within Tropical Africa, and more importantly within each country, many differ-ent ethnic groups maintain varying degrees of homogeneity and self-identity, and exert varying kinship pressures. Some groups 15 are more cosmopolitan and adaptive, some are more conservative and reluctant to change age-old traditions. Associated with this is the problem of racial predjudice and discrimination which also affects accessibility to modernizing influences. As there are usually several languages spoken in various parts of a country, it is not hard to understand the wide range of social and cultural differences within each African society. Developmental planning must consider these differences among people and regions and the resulting consequences of selecting alternative policies and strat-egies. A closer examination of some of these features may c l a r i -fy the level of social development in A f r i c a . In terms of educa-tion, the illiteracy rate in Tropical A f r i c a ranges generally be-tween 75 and 85 per cent (Hunter, 1967). Even though primary school enrollments tripled between 1950 and 1963 and are s t i l l increasing at a rate higher than 'developed' countries, the educa-tion system remains very bottom-heavy. Though approximately 50 per cent of the relevant age group are in primary schools, just 7 per cent get to secondary schools and only 1 per cent enroll in university (Jolly, 1971). Government spending on education (as a share of national income) has been at a rate comparable to other parts of the world, but advances in widespread education have been slow as a result of the lack of facilities and personnel at the beginning of the independence period. And, as Jolly(1971) points out, it is not enough to simply educate the people; there must be a concerted effort to change attitudes and train them to meet the specific needs required by the developmental process. 16 Unemployment and underemployment are typical features of most African societies. 'Disguised' unemployment in the r u r a l areas, where seasonality and a universal work force affect the employment rates in subsistence agriculture, distorts the overall employment statistics. The urban areas, however, provide a striking picture of the extent of unemployment. In the cities the unemployment rates generally range from 15 to 25 per cent (El Shakhs, 1974). Employment in the 'modern' sector has grown more slowly than the labour force, which has grown rapidly with the increasing annual output from schools. This problem is not insignificant; in Nigeria, about 600, 000 persons leave school an-nually while the annual creation of wage-earning jobs grows by only 10 - 20,000 (Jolly, 1971 : 219); in Tanzania, for every 250,000 entering the labour force, only 23,000 jobs are available; and in Kenya, 150,000 primary school leavers compete for 15,000 po-sitions in secondary schools and only 40, 000 jobs each year (Rosser, 1972 : 62). One of the prime social factors affecting development in Tropical A f r i c a is the growth and distribution of the human population. The population in A f r i c a is growing at a high rate, and there is a potential for an even higher rate. This rate will presumably increase as the effective death rates begin to decrease with advances in health and nutrition programmes (Hodder, 1968). The population and population growth rates for the individual countries can be seen in Table III. High population growth is not a detriment per se; but a rapid rate of growth and a large absolute growth can impose 16 Unemployment and underemployment are typical features of most African societies. 'Disguised' unemployment in the r u r a l areas, where seasonality and a universal work force affect the employment rates in subsistence agriculture, distorts the overall employment statistics. The urban areas, however, provide a striking picture of the extent of unemployment. In the cities the unemployment rates generally range from 15 to 2 5 per cent (El Shakhs, 1974). Employment in the 'modern' sector has grown more slowly than the labour force, which has grown rapidly with the increasing annual output from schools. This problem is not insignificant; in Nigeria, about 600, 000 persons leave school an-nually while the annual creation of wage-earning jobs grows by only 10 - 20, 000 (Jolly, 1971 : 219); in Tanzania, for every 250,000 entering the labour force, only 23,000 jobs are available; and in Kenya, 150,000 primary school leavers compete for 15,000 po-sitions in secondary schools and only 40, 000 jobs each year (Rosser, 1972 : 62). One of the prime social factors affecting development in Tropical A f r i c a is the growth and distribution of the human population. The population in A f r i c a is growing at a high rate, and there is a potential for an even higher rate. This rate will presumably increase as the effective death rates begin to decrease with advances in health and nutrition programmes (Hodder, 1963). The population and population growth rates for the individual countries can be seen in Table III. High population growth is not a detriment per se; but a rapid rate of growth and a largu absolute growth can impose 17 T A B L E I I I P O P U L A T I O N A N D G R O W T H R A T E S I N T R O P I C A L A F R I C A ( 1 9 7 1 ) „ , . P o p u l a t i o n G r o w t h R a t e s ( 0 0 0 ) P o p u l a t i o n 1 9 6 0 - 7 1 1 9 6 5 - 7 1 G a b o n 4 9 4 1 . 0 1 . 1 Z a m b i a 4 , 2 5 0 2 . 5 2 . 5 I v o r y C o a s t 5 , 2 2 7 3 . 1 3 . 3 C o n g o 1 , 1 2 3 2 . 1 2 . 1 G h a n a 8 , 8 5 6 2 . 6 2 . 6 S e n e g a l 4 , 0 1 9 2 . 4 2 . 4 L i b e r i a 1 , 5 7 0 3 . 1 3 . 1 S i e r r a L e o n e 2 , 6 6 8 2 . 2 2 . 2 C a m e r o o n 5 , 7 8 6 2 . 1 2 . 1 S w a z i l a n d 4 3 3 2 . 9 2 . 9 M a u r i t a n i a 1 , 1 9 0 1 . 9 2 . 1 B o t s w a n a 6 1 8 1 . 8 1 . 9 K e n y a 11 , 6 7 0 3 . 1 3 . 3 C e n t r a l A f r i c a n R e p u b l i c 1 , 5 8 6 2 . 5 2 . 3 T o g o 2 , 0 0 9 3 . 0 3 . 4 G a m b i a 3 7 0 2 . 0 1 . 9 N i g e r i a 5 6 , 5 1 0 2 . 5 2 . 5 U g a n d a 1 0 , 1 4 8 2 . 7 2 . 9 S u d a n 1 6 , 1 3 5 2 . 8 2 . 8 T a n z a n i a 1 3 , 2 4 9 3 . 0 2 . 8 N i g e r 4 , 1 3 2 2 . 9 2 . 8 D a h o m e y 2 , 7 8 3 2 . 8 2 . 7 L e s o t h o 9 4 1 2 . 0 2 . 0 G u i n e a 4 , 0 8 0 2 . 6 2 . 5 M a l a w i 4 , 5 5 0 2 . 6 2 . 5 Z a i r e 1 9 , 3 2 6 2 . 8 2 . 8 C h a d 3 , 7 1 6 1 . 8 1 . 8 E t h i o p i a 2 5 , 2 5 0 2 . 1 2 . 4 M a l i 5 , 1 2 3 2 . 1 2 . 4 S o m a l i a 2 , 8 9 5 2 . 4 2 . 4 U p p e r V o l t a 5 , 4 9 7 2 . 1 2 . 1 B u r u n d i 3 , 6 1 5 2 . 0 2 . 0 R w a n d a 3 , 7 8 6 3 . 5 3 . 3 S o u r c e : W o r l d B a n k A t l a s f o r P e r C a p i t a P r o d u c t i o n , P o p u l a t i o n a n d G r o w t h R a t e s , 1 9 7 3 18 severe hardships on countries with developing economies and mini-mal capital resources. The ability to economically sustain increasing population pressures is related to the growth of the economy; i . e . "the chief problem of development is how to increase prod-uction at a rate substantially higher than the rate of population growth" (Hodder, 1968; 88). Comparing the growth rates of Table II and Table III for equivalent time periods shows that over two-thirds of the African countries had GNP growth rates below or slightly higher than the population growth rates. Economic gains can easily be rendered negligible by an equivalent or higher population growth. The implications of population trends are not limited to growth alone. The age distribution also affects development possibilites; African societies generally have a large number of children in proportion to the rest of the population. The economic costs of providing for these dependent persons can be quite significant in terms of national budget. Also, the spatial distribution of the population can impose hardships to development. A common misconception is that high rates of population growth, especially in 'developing' countries, go hand in hand with high densities. Generally, Africa is not a'high density area; in fact, it is one of the most sparsely populated areas of the world (see Tables IVa and IVb). However, densities vary greatly among different regions of each country. As Hodder (1968) suggests, dev-elopment aspirations may face problems of overpopulation in some areas and under population in others. Tropical Africa faces numerous political, economic and T A B L E IVa POPULATION DENSITIES FOR WORLD AREAS (Mid-1972 Estimates) Density / K M 2 Africa 12 Asia 78 Europe 95 Latin America 15 North America 11 Oceania 2 U . S . S . R . 11 World Average 28 T A B L E IVb POPULATION DENSITIES IN T R O P I C A L AFRICA (Mid-1972 Estimates) D e n s i t y / K M 2 Density/KM Botswana 1 Mauritania 1 Burundi 122 Niger 3 Chad 3 Nigeria 63 Congo 3 Rwanda 148 Dahomey 21 Senegal 21 Ethiopia 25 Sierra Leone 37 Gambia 34 Somalia 5 Ghana 38 Sudan 7 Guinea 17 Swaziland 25 Ivory Coast 14 Tanzania 15 Kenya 21 Togo 37 Lesotho 32 Uganda 44 Malawi 39 Upper Volta 20 Mali 4 Zaire 10 Zambia 6 Source: United Nations Statistical Yearbook, 1973 20 social characteristics which can not be easily modified. This brief introduction to some of these factors points out the basic stereotype of African societies that must be considered when seek-ing effective policies and strategies for development. The complex-ity and inter-relatedness of these existing conditions demonstrates the need for a multi-disciplinary and comprehensive approach to developmental planning. CITIES AND REGIONS IN TROPICAL AFRICA The threads of continuity linking these basic factors within African societies are high rates of urban growth and large dis-parities among sub-national regions. These features are usually connected to the notions of excessive 'primacy' of the cities and 'polarized' development. The larger cities usually end up with the major share of investments, infrastructure and services; developmental activities are usually concentrated in a small num-ber of urban regions and their immediate hinterlands. In order to utilize the new directions of planning and development, it is necessary to understand the existing trends. Urbanization. Tropical Africa faces the situation of exten-sive urbanization tendencies in a basically non-urban society. The pattern of urban centres inherited from the colonial powers dominates the geography of contemporary Africa. With the ex-ception of the Yoruban settlement in Nigeria (see both Breese, 1969 and Rosser, 1972), large settlements were relatively uncom-mon in pre-colonial Africa . The functions, design and size of the current cities reflect a continuation of their role established during the colonial experience. It is these cities that still serve r as the centres of administration, finance, communication, industry and export/import activities. At the same time, however the majority of the population remains scattered throughout the rur a l areas. Most of the countryside is composed of small villages and hamlets, alienated from the few centres of complex urban society and often isolated from their mode rrizing influence. This rural-urban dichotomy and the forces which strengthen and maintain it are of paramount importance in the challenge of developmental planning. Interest in the urbanization process has generated substan-tial indications of major trends and problems. Different defini-tions of "urban" places used by various African countries often complicate the comparative data. To facilitate clarity and to maximize consistency, the standard U.N. definition will be used; i.e. an urban centre is a settlement with 20,000 or more per-sons (Rosser, 1972). The subjectivity of such a classification may give rise to misleading analysis. If the majority of the Africans live in villages smaller than 20,000 persons, then the perceived notion of 'urban' settlement may be any settlement larger than the typical village. Despite this limitation, the sim-plicity and accessibility of the U.N. definition necessitates its use in the African context. Even in the face of rapid urban growth during the past fifty years, A f r i c a remains predominately rural. Rosser ( 1972), using a slightly different delimitation of Trop i c a l A f r i c a , provides a good overview of African urbanization. In 1920, approximately 1. 6 million persons lived in urban areas out of a total population of 100 million, representing an urban proportion of only 1. 6 per cent. The population estimate for 1970 was 242.3 million. Of 22 this total, only 26.2 million lived in urban areas -- an urban proportion that is just 11 per cent. For the same year, the 'developing' nations as a whole had a 15 per cent proportion and the world figure was 30 per cent. Population projections compiled by the U.N. estimate a total African population of 524 million by the year 2000. The expected distribution is 105. 6 million in urban areas and 419 million in rur a l areas -- an urban proportion of only 20 per cent. Even at continued high rates of urban growth, only one in five will reside in urban areas at the turn of the century. The existing evidence clearly qualifies A f r i c a as the least urbanized of all the world areas. In I960, Tropical A f r i c a had the lowest percentage (9) in places over 20,000, with other major world areas ranging from 16 to 46 per cent (Breese, 1966: 33). At the same time, only one country in Tropical A f r i c a (Senegal) had over 20 per cent of its total population in urban areas while several countries from a l l parts of the world had urban proportions of the total population well over 40 per cent (Breese, 1966 : 34). While the urban proportion for Tropical A f r i c a in 1970 was 11 per cent, the extent of urbanization in different countries varied greatly (see Table V). The most urbanized country was the Congo with 33 per cent of its population urban, almost a l l of which is centred in its capital, Brazzaville. Uganda, Burundi andMauritania were the least urbanized with only 2 per cent of their populations in cities of 20,000 or more. Although the percentage of urban population is generally ow, the urban growth for most countries is concentrated in the 23 T A B L E V POPULATION AND URBANIZATION IN T R O P I C A L AFRICA (1970) Country T O T A L WEST A F R I C A C E N T R A L AFRICA EAST AFRICA WEST AFRICA Nigeria Ghana Upper Volta Mali Ivory Coast Guinea Senegal Niger Dahomey Sierra Leone Togo Liberia Mauritania Portuguese Guinea Gambia Total Population (millions) 2 4 2 . 3 111.9 . 3 5 . 5 9 4 . 9 111. 9 6 6 . 1 9 . 0 5 . 3 5 . 1 4 . 3 3 . 9 3 . 9 3 . 8 2 . 7 2 . 6 1 . 8 1 . 2 1 . 2 0 . 6 0 . 4 Urban Population (millions) 2 6 . 2 1 5 . 8 3 . 9 6 . 5 15. 8 10.1 1 . 6 0 . 2 0 . 4 0 . 8 0 . 4 1.1 0 . 2 0 . 3 0 . 4 0 . 2 0 . 2 0 . 0 2 0 . 0 2 0 . 0 3 % Urban 11 14 11 7 14 15 18 4 8 19 10 26 5 11 13 11 17 2 3 7 cont '<!.... T A B L E V (cont'd.) POPULATION AND URBANIZATION IN T R O P I C A L AFRICA (1970) Country Total Population (millions) Total Population (millions) % Urban C E N T R A L AFRICA 35.5 Zaire 17.4 Cameroon 5.7 Chad 3.7 Central African ^ Republic Congo 0.9 Equatorial Guinea 0.3 Angola 5.5 Gabon 0.5 3.9 2. 2 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.03 0.4 0.06 11 13 7 8 13 33 10 7 12 EAST AFRICA 94.9 6.5 7 Ethiopia 25 1.2 5 Tanzania 13.2 0.7 5 Kenya 10.8 0.8 7 Uganda 8.5 0.2 2 Madagascar 6.9 0.7 10 Malawi 4.4 0.2 5 Zambia 4.3 1.0 23 Rwanda 3.5 Burundi 3.6 0.08 2 Somalia 2.7 0.3 11 Rhodesia 4.5 1.1 24 Mozambique 7.5 0.2 3 Source: Demography and Economic Commission for Africa Social Statistics (data from E C A Section, worksheets). 25 few existing centres. Having only a small number of urban centres, the primate cities of each country are the prime targets for migrants. The growth rate of these centres exceeds the overall population growth rates of their respective countries.* This is a major part of the urbanization problem: the percentage of urban populations remains low, but the urban growth rate is approxi-mately 6 per cent per annum. This is by far the highest rate of urban growth anywhere in the world. These large urban centres are the main functional areas in their respective countries. As they developed during colonial days, their functions were molded to fit the needs of the metropolitan countries. Their economic function was geared to the extraction and export of raw materials and the distribution of imported goods. The majority of the main centres are located on or near the coast and along the main transportation corridors. As Rosser (1972) points out, of the fifty-seven cities with populations greater than 100,000 in the 1960's, sixteen were coastal ports and almost all the rest were situated adjacent to the port-linked railway system. There are few large settlements away from the coast (see Map 2). The capital city is often one of these primate cities, dating back to its role as administrative and military centre of pre-independence Africa (Hamdan, 1964). The uneven distribution of urban centres, both spatially and functionally, heightens the prominent role they play in contemporary Africa . *Note: For example, Dar es Salaam in Tanzania was growing at 10 per cent per annum between 1963 and 1970 and Lusaka, Zambia grew 11.6 per cent annually between 1963 and 1969. 26 M A P 2 TROPICAL AFRICA Cities of More than 100, 000 Population (1968) I « r-— • ••• i OMilw 1000 2000 3000 U)00 Source: Rosser, Colin. Urbanization in Tro-pical Afr ica , 1972 27 Urban areas are the foci of public investments and infra-structure developments. These factors promote the concentration of industrial activities in urban centres, as favourable agglomer-ation and external economies, as well as economies of scale in-fluence industrial location. F o r example, the nine regional capi-tals of Ghana, with a combined total of only 15 per cent of the total population, accounted for 49.7 per cent of total users of the public water supply, 51.3 per cent of total hospital beds, and well over 60 per cent of the total electrical supply. In 1968, Accra, the largest city in Ghana but with only 9. 9 per cent of the total population, had 46.1 per cent of the total manufacturing employ-ment (Kudiabor, 1971). The major cities also act as change agents in the African societies. Just as public utilities and services are f i r s t intro-duced in the cities, so are a host of other modernizing factors. The financial, technological, legal, educational and informational systems for the nation are centred in the urban areas. Technol-ogical innovations, entrepeneurial and leadership skills, and national culture are developed and disseminated from the primate cities. The social changes vital to national development are channelled to the ru r a l areas via the communication links origin-ating in the urban centres. On the other hand, however, the cities are the foci of many of the urgent problems of Tropical A f r i c a . Despite high growth rates, most major African cities are small by world standards; however, they s t i l l suffer the pains of other large cities. The provision of services has been unable to meet increasing demands; 28 existing services are deteriorating and many areas lack public utilities. The scarcity of decent housing and the shortage of ac-cessible urban land has led to a proliferation of unsanitary shanty towns, marked by high densities and increasing crime rates (Rosser, 1972). The streets are congested and the transit systems are often out-dated and expensive to operate. Unemploy-ment rates are high and growing as the cities expand without comparable rates of industrial growth. In general, as major cities experience the brunt of population growth and the develop-ment elsewhere is limited, the urban environment is rapidly de-teriorating (Rodwin, 1961). African countries and cities lack the necessary funds to keep pace with the rapid urban growth. Regional Imbalances. As noted above, development is usually concentrated in the major urban centres and their immediate hin-terlands. The remainder of the national territory is often over-looked in the scheme of investment projects and capital budgeting. The roots of this spatial imbalance are found in the colonial past, but the trend has continued throughout the early stages of independence. Not only has rural development been negligible, but the programs that have been instigated have done little to narrow the disparities among various regions. Rural areas that lie outside of the influence of major cities find themselves in disadvantaged positions in relation to the rest of the regions. This situation serves to strengthen the rural-urban divergence and the inequities between small urban regions and the broader geographic regions of the rest of the countryside. The regional disparities demonstrate many of the features »f A f r i c a n dualism. The relative poverty of the rural areas and the advantages (real and perceived) of the urban centres accentuate the polarization of society. While 'traditionalism' and conservatism mark the rural regions, change and innovation are necessary features of urban-ized populations. The major urban areas could be effective vehicles for the efficient diffusion of modernization and distribution of developmental benefits. Unfortunately, the spatial concentration of development has been maintained and regional imbalances continue to exist. The noticeable absence of an integrated urban hierarchy, with linkages and functional inte action between cities and hinterlands, is a feature common to most African countries (E,l-Shakhs, 1974). The disadvantaged position of the rural areas is a marked feature in A f r i c a . Non-agricultural wage-earning jobs are scarce and the emplyment possibilities for educated persons are greatly limited. The opportunities for success in subsistence farming are decreasing rapidly as the population grows and the quality and amount of arable land declines (because of both climatic and managerial factors). Out-dated land-holding systems and low levels of technological innovations also contribute 'to the weakened agricultural system. Combined with low-levels of prod-uctivity and only minimal infrastructure developments, the r u r a l areas offer few incentives for major investment programmes. But the import-ance of the rural sector in terms of population and the economy can not be ignored. A few examples will illustrate the significance of the rural sector in the African context. The rural area accounted for 94 percent of the total population (1970) of Upper Volta. In 19&8, the r u r a l sector accounted for 83.5 percent of the gross domestic 30 product (Gregory, 19*74). In Kenya, a country with twice the GNP per capita and population of (1971) Upper Volta, the comparable figures were 90 per cent of the population and 30 per cent of the total wage employment and they account for 60 per cent of export earnings ( Gerhart, 1972). While the ru r a l areas are the mainstays of the economy, they do not receive an equitable distribution of public services. Cities have both the infrastructure and modern amenities. F o r example, Lagos, with only 2 per cent of the total Nigerian pop-ulation, had over 32 per cent of the national manufacturing plants, and accounted for 50 per cent of the total telephone lines and domestic electricity consumption (El-Shakhs, 1974). In Kudiabor's (1971) study of regional inequalities in Ghana, the four least de-veloped regions had 38. 5 per cent of the total population. These regions only accounted for 28 per cent of the public water service, 24 per cent of total hospitals, 28 per cent of total hospital beds, 11. 7 per cent of the electricity service and 4. 4 per cent of the total manufacturing employment. The difference in income levels between r u r a l and urban areas contributes to the situation of unbalanced living standards. Gregory (1974) points this out in the case of Upper Volta. In 1970, the two largest cities, Ouagadougou and Bobo-Dioulasso, with only 2 per cent of the total population, accounted for 63 per cent of the total salaried jobs. The average income (money and kind) for the country as a whole was 14,095 francs (CFA) per year; the average income of those employed was 223,217 francs (CFA) annually. Most of the wages earned accrued to city workers. Bakwesegha (1974) also notes regional inequalities of income in his 31 study on Uganda. The rural areas had a lower annual income in terms of cumulative percentage of income levels than the urban areas. Bakwesegha (1974 : 57) describes this situation: "Foremost among Uganda's problems are the prevailing regional inequalities which are even sharper today than they were ever in the past. These are evident in the discrepancies in levels of development between various districts; the relative stagnation of the rural areas; and the relative concentration of urbanization in the South as compared with the predominately ru r a l North. " The extent of regional disparities within the African context is one of Africa's major problems. It can be seen as the logical consequence of the colonial experience and the residual pattern of development. It epitomizes the aspects of dualism typical to A f r i c a and the clash between rur a l traditionalism and urban mod-ernism. The opinion among social scientists differs about the positive or negative ramifications of these imbalances for develop-ment. But it is generally agreed that this is a destabilizing sit-uation that affects the social, political and economic integration and advancement of Tropical A f r i c a . Rural-Urban Migration. Heavy rural to urban migration is a result of this unequal pattern of regional development. High rates of urban growth are caused by this influx of people from the r u r a l areas to the large urban centres. The problem is com-plex as urbanization both contributes to and is caused by regional inequities. Scarce government resources must be spent in urban areas as problems and populations rise proportionately. The extreme visibility and urgency of urban unemployment, congestion and poor living conditions necessitate continuous monetary inputs to reduce potential unrest and politicization of the urban masses. The continued concentration of administrative and industrial activities 32 in the urban areas also forces disproportionate governmental spending on urban services and infrastructure. These political and economic considerations reinforce the migration process by-favouring urban over rural investments. The main factors influencing migration are rural 'push' and urban 'pull ' . The disadvantages and the hardships of the rural areas and the increasingly difficult competition for the few worthwhile jobs help to drive people from the rural areas. The lack of amenities, opportunities and income-earning employment 'push' a large number of persons from the rural sector each year. The lure of the city, with its services, culture and wage-earning jobs seems to be an attractive alternative to many rural persons. The fascination with the modern city and the often unreliable inform-ation about the availability of industrial employment exerts a 'pull' towards the urban areas. While both notions contribute to migration, it is primarily the lack of rural development which leads to movements toward the cities. It has been described as a rational reaction on the part <?f the labour force given the employment structure of the rural regions (Kamarck, 1965). It is also a response to the over-all disparities between rural and urban areas. As Gregory (1974 : 133) notes: "Migration is a response of rural people to the enormous discrepancies in incomes, opportunities and public services." Unlike the historical experience of many 'developed' countries, African migration is not a consequence of agricultural development that released much of the rural population from food production. 33 The concomitant demand for labour as industry developed in the cities has not been the case in Tropical A f r i c a . Sovani (1964 : 326) concludes "that the economic 'pull' of the city, i.e. the demand for labour in developing economic activities, is not the primary-cause of 'overurbanization', but rather the 'push' from the from the rural areas. " The individual rationality of rural-urban migrants can lead to a collective wastage of human resources, perhaps the most valuable resource in Tropical A f r i c a . The cities are • often in-capable of providing the benefits and opportunities anticipated by the urban new-comers. Unemployment, underemployment and debilitating conditions of urban poverty soon replace the 'inflated expectations of the r u r a l migrants, but they continue to swap a 'rural for an urban misery'. The majority of these migrants are young males, often among the more educated in their r u r a l areas. Ar r i v i n g in the city, these persons find themselves unemployed or underemployed as the education system has not provided them with the necessary skills to obtain the better employment oppor-tunities of the cities. The urban industrial sector utilizes the large' supply of cheap labour, but only to a limited extent. This in turn helps to keep down the wage levels of all urban workers. Subsequently, the ru r a l areas find themselves lacking a good supply of educated, semi-skilled and energetic young people. Innovative and dedicated agricultural workers are required to cope with the problems of development; the education system, the exaggerated attractiveness of the urban areas and rural poverty drain these potential human resources away from the rural areas. The notion of 'parasitic' urban growth (Hoselitz, 1955) can be 34 applied to most of Tropical Af r i c a . As summarized by El-Shakhs (1974 : 6): "The chain reaction of education, migration and concentra-tion of unemployed youths in cities increases the threat of political and social unrest, which results in more government attention and expenditures in the cities, which in turn increases the cities' attraction for more migrants. This vicious cycle continues to undermine ru r a l areas, which are unwittingly per-mitted to stagnate." Urbanization, with its foundations in ru r a l stagnation and the rural-urban process, is a complex phenomenon. Many African countries have failed to recognize the interrelationships among all the factors of society which shape these trends; programmes and investment policies aimed at reducing these problems have often inadvertently magnified them. A continuation of this situation will impose further hardships and limit the ability of African societies to achieve their potential level of development. 35 HYPOTHESES FORMULATION The preceding section describes the developmental planning environment and some of the emerging issues which shape the future directions of Tropical A f r i c a . The remainder of the study-is an attempt to consider the adequacy of national planning in A f r i c a and to examine some ways in which the developmental planning process might be improved. This is prim a r i l y an im-pressionistic survey of African planning and includes analysis of both the planning process and a specific developmental strategy. Several hypotheses are listed below which will be tested in the study. These hypotheses serve as one means of analyzing the main developmental issues facing A f r i c a in a systematic manner. The results of this investigation will necessarily be subject to limitations based on the qualitative, and not quantitative, nature of the study. The hypotheses are mainly directed toward the general case of Tropical A f r i c a , but there are also some applied to the case study of Zambia. Hypothesis 1 . It is postulated that a standardized development plan can not be produced that is applicable to all African countries. Hypothesis 2. It is postulated that national plans which concentrate solely on the achievement of specific targets are not appli-cable in A f r i c a . Hypothesis 3. It is postulated that development plans can not be effective given the existing data deficiencies in African countries. Hypothesis 4. It is postulated that the lack of planning process and implementation details can cause African national plans to be ineffective. Hypothesis 5. It is postulated that pre-independence plans maxi-mized returns to the colonial powers instead of promoting internaldevelopments of the African countries. Hypothesis 6. It is postulated that African national plans can be 36 rendered impotent by persons or groups external to the formal planning process. Hypothesis 7. It is postulated that the scarcity of developmental capital can prevent successful implementation of African national plans. Hypothesis 8. It is postulated that a growth centre strategy can not be applied in the limited industrial economies of Africa. Hypothesis 9. It is postulated that a rural development strategy can redress the regional imbalances within Zambia. Hypothesis 10. It is postulated that a well -defined urbanization policy can improve the effectiveness of national developmen-tal planning in Zambia. 37 C H A P T E R II D E V E L O P M E N T A L PLANNING IN A F R I C A A G E N E R A L DESCRIPTION "Yet, despite their flaws and shortcomings, one of the most decisive traits of this African decade has been the general adopt-ion of planning, on a continent-wide basis, a process that is historically i r r e v e r s i b l e " (Clairmonte and Ben-Amor, 1972 : 120) INTRODUCTION African societies since independence in the 1960's have been conspicuous consumers of national planning, often viewing planning as equivalent to, not prerequisites for, national growth and devel-opment. In this section, the national planning proliferation in Africa.will be examined and crit i c a l l y appraised. African national planning provides a sweeping overview of the myriad of complexit-ies particular to A f r i c a that have direct bearing on the chances for visable development in the future. The complex political, social and economic factors indigenous to A f r i c a can only super-fici a l l y be found in an examination of the planning process; how-ever, the planning agencies there have to take these factors into account or continue to suffer the pains of inadequacy and futility generally descriptive of historical planning in A f r i c a . T H E R O L E OF PLANNING IN A F R I C A Before looking at the impact and scope of developmental planning in independent A f r i c a , it will be useful to examine briefly the historical nature of planning during the colonial period. These "plans" were prepared by the metropolitan country authorities for the territories they administered. The beginnings of African planning can be traced to the 1920's with the establishment of the British Empire Marketing Board and the Plan Sauffault of the 38 French (Clairmonte and Ben-Amor, 1972). These were attempts by the colonial powers to remedy some of their industrial and economic problems by utilizing their colonies to their own econ-omic advantage. The United Kingdom, in the second Colonial Development and Welfare Act of 1945, committed £l20 million in the subsequent ten-year period; this required t e r r i t o r i a l govern-ments to draw up ten-year plans for the dispersion of these funds (Uppal and Salkever, 1972). France prepared a series of four-year plans following World War II and a much more precise plan covering France and the entire empire was prepared for the period 1946-1956. Between 1947 and 1956 an estimated 770 thou-sand million French francs of public funds were channelled through various agencies to overseas possessions, with an estimated 95 per cent going to A f r i c a (Clairmonte and Ben-Amor, 1972). These general investment and capital distribution schemes were the precursors of planning in A f r i c a . In analyzing these plans, it is important to note three c r i t i c a l characteristics of colonial planning for A f r i c a . F i r s t , be-cause the territories were in a dependent position, many of the sectors of the economy and many investment projects were financed directly by the metropolitan- country; therefore the plans did not aim at the full realization of indigenous economic potentials. Secondly, the plans were generally fragmented and uncoordinated, dealing only with those sectors of the local economy and investment projects which best complemented the home economy and sustained overall developmental strategies. These plans were often mere inventories of investment projects. Thirdly, these plans were very narrow in scope and did not establish clear-cut policies for direct-39 ing development of the colony. They did not provide for directing, encouraging or synchronizing private investment; they did not provide for a well-planned programme of public expenditure projects; and they did not provide for much productive investment to advance all sectors of the economy. Generally, only projects in the social services and public infrastructure were listed in the plans. Basically, these plans were not developmental plans for increasing the welfare of the people and the economic well-being of the colonies themselves; these plans were broad outlines for funds distribution and guidelines for economic manipulations optim-izing maximum advantages to the home country. These plans were often prepared thousands of miles away from Africa or if done locally, by civil servants often without any particular expertise in the field. The lack of information and communication among local persons or even various levels of colonial administrators discour-aged integrated planning, even on the limited scale attached to these plans. For many reasons these were defective, yet as Kamarck ( 1971 : 264) states, "they did have one virtue: they were usually carried out". Since independence in the 1960's, most African countries have accepted "national" planning as a major step towards self-reliance and development. This has been done for three main reasons: one, because of the state of development in which most African countries find themselves; two, because development requires not only economic but social and political advancement as well; three, because planning is viewed as most rational means of satisficing political goals as well as directing the most rational advancement of national well-being. That is, 40 "African plans reflect the excitement of newly acquired political independence and the enthusiasm felt in the face of a gigantic task." (Molnos, 1970: 10). In many cases, these plans are not only political necessities, but also weapons against chronic ill s of the society- poverty, disease and unemployment - and instruments that reflect dedication to change and societal advancement. Even as early as 1962, 22 countries listed either, current plans or plans in preparation as part of their national growth strategy (Uppal and Salkever, 1972). The mere fact that planning and plans have been so readily ac-cepted as a vital strategy for development reflects the relative importance attached to this process by the new gover.nments. As of 1972, approximately 30 independent countries in Black A f r i c a had some kind" of short term plan for national development. The significance of this proliferation of national plans is not in the numbers involved, but in the rationale behind them. These plans represent independence and initial steps taken by the governments to demonstrate their control over the fate of their societies. In retrospect, the striking c r i t i c i s m about these plans is the dismal implementation record associated with them. But there have also been some successful plans that have aided in the development of some African states in the past decade. The majority of African countries remain extremely impoverished in many aspects and the failure of plans to alleviate these conditions warrants consideration. By examining the problems occurring in connection with these plans and these constraints to effective plan-ning, hopefully a better understanding will emerge to increase the viability of national plans in A f r i c a to direct development. 41 E F F E C T I V E N E S S OF A F R I C A N PLANNING It is apparent that the concept of planning has been readily-adopted in African countries. The proliferation of "national" plans since the early 1960's seems to speak well to this point. However, the significant impact of this phenomenon is not the mere acceptance of planning as a vital cog in the developmental machine; the more important question remains: has the ratification of a national development plan successfully contributed to the increased well-being of the country? The general conclusion must certainly be that it has not. Many authors attempting to answer this question have found little evidence to the contrary: plans are made, accepted, ignored and redone. It is not the exceptional case, but rather the rule, that plan targets and goals are seldom actively sought, much less achieved. In other words, the relationship -between the plan and its implementation is very tenuous. Robert Gardiner, Executive Secretary of the Economic Commission of Africa, drives the point home by stating, "There had been much more success in drawing up plans than implementing them. Plans represent high hopes and sour performances." (Kamarck, 1971 : 266). The next logical question appears to be: are these plans totally unrealistic and impossible to implement, or are the imple-mentation mechanisms inadequate for handling plans? That the majority of plans fail to be implemented indicates a serious deficiency in the planning process; there seems to be little sense in adopting plans to guide and direct the development of a country if these plans have little or no hope of being utilized. But the nature of the problem is very complex and the answer to the question appears to D e a combination of inadequacies in both the 42 plans themselves and the implementation process capacities. It seems that, in many cases, highly theoretical and ambitious plans, lacking contact with reality, have contributed to or caused failures in the implementation of plans. On the other hand, the inherited administrative structures may have biased plans such that in prac-tice they were too narrow, too vague, or too disjointed to have any value in application. Although both factors contribute to poor planning performance and are highly interrelated, it seems that the nature of the plans themselves is the more significant factor in this poor achievement record. Development plans can either be formulated taking administrative capacities into account or not, and in general it appears that most of these plans have paid little attention to the actual implementation possibilities as objective constraints on the nature of the plan. As Seers points out (1972 : 19): .*' • •" it is indeed quite a puzzle how some 'plans' ever came to be "produced, so lacking in political and administrative reality ar,e they, considering the high caliber of the people working on them. " In attempting to present a description of planning in A f r i c a , it is essential to keep this point in mind. Planning has been accepted and granted a high status, yet it has been unsuccessful for the most part in achieving stated policy goals. The primary cause of this paradox is a tendency to produce plans that are neither con-cerned with nor viable in terms of economic, political or administrative realities. This is a tendency "to set goals according to development needs instead of re-sources and means to achieve them. Since needs are vitually limitless at all levels in the early stages of development, plan targets are bound to exceed the capacity of the administrative system." (Molnos, 1970 : 22) 43 PAST DIFFICULTIES IN THE PLANNING PROCESS There have been many problems associated with national planning in A f r i c a that have contributed to its limited success. The basic problems of vaporous plans and limited administrative capacities can be viewed with respect to four problem areas: interpretation of plans, formulation of plans, composition of plans, and execution of plans. Interpretation of Plans . One source of frustration in rea l i -zing rplanning goals has been in the intrpretation of the purpose of planning, i.e. WHY plans are made. Plans made for the wrong reasons are likely to end up as inadequate and meaningless documents. Too often African plans have failed because they were equated to a magic formula for development, and not seen as an organizational component aiding the attainment of reasonable national goals. Planning, when equated with development, is bound to be disappointing and unachievable; it can be a statement of desired ends, but it is prim a r i l y a theoretical blueprint of means for achieving these ends. It has been a hindrance to goal fulfillment to assume that a plan by itself guarantees development. As Molnos states, "The major reason for the gap between planning and implementation is an overevaluation of the planning process itself, particularly development plans, and especially compre-hensive ones." (Molnos, 1970 : 10) Specifically, planning has been an important political tool for many African governments; indeed, it is often considered to be a political necessity. It has often been used as a means of secur-ing political support and seeking national unity. A plan has repre-sented a concrete platform for governments to stand on and 44 solicit national and international legitimacy as well as financial support. For these reasons political realities attached to a plan may not coincide with objective economic conditions and aspirations behind the plan. A plan may indicate highly ambitious objectives that have tremendous popular appeal without considering the costs, efficiencies, and feasibilities of such an undertaking. The highly unstable political situation found in many African countries in the early stages of statehood contributed to the use of this kind of planning as a political tool producing plans often difficult to carry out. A plan that is used as a means to publicize political ideolo-gies may be a very rational political strategy in independent Af r i c a , but not necessarily a viable developmental strategy. This led Seers to warn that a plan "may actually be a substitute, in a serious political situation, for real development strategy". (Seers, 1972 : 23). The shift in planning strategies in independent A f r i c a has been to comprehensiveness rather than disjointed project planning. However, these "national" plans are often overambitious and f a i l to see the necessity of incorporating both feasible project planning and attainable goals together. Plans are often inconsistent in the sense that the stated goals are not practicable given the policies for implementing them. When applied as a directive they are often too passive to successfully guide actions: when applied as a weapon (to combat social and economic ills) they are often too vague and lacking enough force to be effective; when applied as an instru-ment of change they are often too simplistic to adequately cope with the complexities of the developmental process. The rationale behind creating a plan is a strong determinant in the s u c c e s s f u l enactment of the plan. 45 Financial necessity has also influenced interpretations of the role of planning which have resulted in impractical plans. Faced with a scarcity of capital, many African governments have relied heavily on foreign aid. However, in many instances a pre-requisite to obtaining funds is the adoption of a "national" plan. Sometimes, then, the plan has been used primarily as an appeal for aid without clear-cut strategies and projects, and with little or no thought to implementation realities. It is a useful framework for a loan policy by donors, and has in fact led to the production of one or two plans only because the donors asked for them (Seers, 1972). Given this type of raison d'etre for formulating a national plan, it is small wonder many plans have been ineffectual for development. The WHY behind planning in A f r i c a has been a source of problems to achieving these plans. Formulation of Plans. Another problem area is formed by the parties involved in constructing the plan; i.e. WHO makes the plans. In general, because of the shortage of indigenous skilled personnel, most African development plans were formulated by hired experts. These expatriate planners were generally econo-mists bringing with them the tools and biases from the developed countries and appealing to the naivete of the government with high-powered technical and analytical methodologies. Given a loose framework in which to design the plans, the majority of these "lofty intellectual constructions" were filled with Western policies and indicators basically incompatatible with the particularities of African development (Carlson and Olakanpo, 1964). Not only were these tools (e.g. econometric modelling) inapplicable given the level of economic sophistication and developmental objectives, but heavy 46 data requirements were necessary to* operationalize this type of planning. Furthermore, these "planners" were generally totally removed from and inexperienced with important aspects of the economy and political temperaments outside of the capital area. It is small wonder plans drawn by many of these experts were only nominally adopted and seldom implemented. The politicians role in this process has also been subject to much crit i c i s m . Aside from the political expediency involved in advocating planning and the development plan, the politicians had little input into the actual planning process. Two reasons for this lack of contribution stand out: the first is a lack of expertise and skills on the part of the politician; and the second was the lack of time. The precarious life of a politician (in terms of job security) plus pressing daily activities allowed insufficient oppor-tunities for serious dialogue with the plan designers. Additionally, even with the one-party systems of many African countries, there was not always mutual agreement about plan objectives, goals and strategies; those who were empowered to voice collective goals of the citizenry were often vague and non-committal. M a r r i s and Leys (1971) refer to this phenomenon as a "double limitation" -the accepting of development goals of the current politicians as the most relevant definition, and concentrating on the economic choices within that formulation. Externally, plans were influenced by several sources. Private investors and businesses in maximizing their own invest-ments often had substantial influence on the direction of development. This could be in terms of the plan, but just as often was independ-47 ent of, if not in contrast to, the stated policy goals. To a larger extent, multinational corporations often controlled a large share of the national economy in any given sector and thereby had a major impact on the direction of economic development by operating within their own growth plans. Plans were biased toward certain policies that would be beneficial to these major investors; if this failed, they simply proceeded in the direction they thought best anyway with little or no fear of governmental reprisals for countermand-ing the intent of the plan. Finally, as mentioned above, aid donors also influenced the shape of the plan. International organizations and/or foreign gov-ernments had large stakes in the adoption of certain planning policies and strategies, and often used the lure of aid or political support to guarantee the formulation of plans desirable to them. In general, the public or local administrators, members of the c i v i l service, local entrepeneurs and even a large number of elected officials had little impact on the plan formulation. When planning is done by expatriate economists, foreign investors and aid donors, there seems little doubt that interests, perceptions and consequences of particular plans are of dubious merit to many African countries. Composition of Plans. A further problem area is framed by the content of the plan based on the reason for the plan and the"planner s"; Le. the \ WHAT of the plan. Basically, the plan often contained a statement of general aims (e. g. overcoming the colonial legacy and removing obstacles to continued development), a set of espoused goals (e.g. reduction in unemployment, increase in school 48 enrollment, development of rural areas, etc.), and some economic indicator targets (e.g. sustained growth at a certain rate, increase in per capita income, increase in the industrial sector contribution to GDP, etc.). A basic time period for the achievement of these objectives was also indicated, usually three to seven years. Unfortunately, admirable as these goals may have been, these "national" plans often failed to spell out the necessary means and specific projects designed to implement these policies. General budgetary plans or sectoral allotments given to fu l f i l l the ambi-tions of the plan were conveniently unspecified, and the attempts to coordinate ministerial investments frequently resulted in frag-mented or incomplete application of the general planning goals. Whether these plans are basically lists of policies, programs or projects, the difficulty in implementation stems from the inability to integrate and incorporate all the relevant, realistic aspects of a plan that is particularly adaptable to the individual African country. Most of these plans seem to be overly ambitious and there-fore filled with comprehensive and universally appealing objectives. This type of document is pleasant reading and filled with great hopes and promises, but they "do not have a great deal of oper-ational relevance . . . some have been little better than fantasies" (Seers, 1972 : 19). Well-meaning or not, the overt statement of meaningless tools, intangible indices of achievement and impossible policy targets contribute little to African development. Indeed, this rhetoric can be harmful to the development process. Such lofty aspirations are difficult to f u l f i l l , and this may alienate and arouse suspicion among administrative bureaucrats, stimulate 49 political factionalism, and create increased expectations in the populace which, when unmet, can promote political unrest. It seems that many plans were composed of socially desirable but very unrealistic policies and objectives, and that achievement of these comprehensive goals could not have been accomplished in any African country, even in the best of circumstances. While over-burdened with generalities and optimism, these plans often lacked important aspects of the development process. Though also lacking in specific administrative details, these plans failed to include several key topics that could have either contri-buted to implementation or coordination of the plan. Specific projects and timing of the programs were generally absent, as well as a means to evaluate the progress of the plan, both at the end of the plan period and at regular interim periods. This precluded constant analysis and re-evaluation of the plan, making it a static blueprint, not a dynamic guide to development. Little attention was paid to the aspect of population planning and control, and therefore different aspects of the plan suffered hopelessly as the population growth counteracted even the more successfully planned projects. The plans also failed to "plan planning itself, perhaps the most important job of a planning office" (Seers, 1972 : 33). That is, planning should be a continual process, evolving and adapting to changed circumstances; the plans failed to prepare the proper machinery for flexible planning necessary for African countries. Finally, the plans generally neglected to emphasize the development of executive capacity necessary to carry out any plans. Not only were these plans oblivious to the existing implementation capabil-50 ities, but they were also unaware of the need to incorporate the growth of these managerial capacities into the plans as a means of ensuring improved implementation in the future. The contents of the plan are largely determined by the purposes and persons be-hind them, but nonetheless can be stated in a positive or negative manner to allow successful implementation of the plan. Execution of Plans. Once a plan is adopted by a govern-ment, a problem often occurs in the enactment of the plan; i . e. the HOW of the plan. Typically, the persons who plan are not the same persons who carry out the plan. Even when planners included the implementation process in the plan, they lacked the insight and appreciation of the administrative structures necessary to adjust the plans according to the differing ability to implement. The compexity of the communication links among the numerous government agencies and ministries and the power hierarchy within the c i v i l service creates serious cooperation and coordination problems which hinder plan implementation. Not only does infight-ing occur at the bureaucratic levels over varied and conflicting departmental interests, but this can be found among the politicians and various cabinet ministers as well, with the result that depart-mental goals receive priority over national planning goals. Corrup-tion and more often patronage among senior c i v i l servants and cabinet ministers also fetters effective planning as personnel ap-pointments and investment decisions are guided by social obli-gations, personal gain or political ambitions rather than efficiency and optimal development considerations. Generally, there are inadequate means of enforcing cooperation among parastatal agencies to ensure an integrated developmental program. 51 Additionally, the ability to implement plans is often closely tied to the economic means available to the government. Invest-ment in economic as well as social projects requires a large amount of public capital, a scarce commodity in most African countries. These countries generally rely upon a few primary export goods for revenues, and capital expenditures projects in-cluded in a plan may suffer serious setbacks if the world market declines for these commodities. The other prime source of public funds is from aid. Again, to make plans based on anticipated do-nations and loans over a period of years is risky and deviations from the estimates have caused many plans to be significantly altered or dropped. Likewise, the uncertainty of the • actions of the private sector - domestic or foreign - have hindered the preparation of adequate plans. The amount as well as the sectoral allocation of private investments are difficult to predict and may run counter to the desired objectives embodied in the plan. It is generally the case that "investment decisions show little connection with the plan p r i o r i t i e s " (Carlson and Olakanpo, 1964 : 5). Even the limited size of internal markets has imposed serious limitations on the successful implementation of the development plans. The bureaucracies responsible for implementation suffer several deficiencies which can hobble effective transition from plan to action. As both Dean (1971) and Molnos (1970) point out, the major barriers to successful planning are not economic, but poli-tical and administrative. Dean (1971) showed that the poor imple-mentation of the Nigerian National Development Plan, 1962-1968, was due to an inadequate administrative capacity which included inexperience, lack of imagination, high turnover rates, inability to 52 perform assigned tasks, patronage, and lack of technical expertise. Leys and M a r r i s (1971), as well as Seers (1972) found the suspicious and conservative nature of the bureaucracy to be a hindrance to promoting and actively working towards plan goals. The bureaucractic position and structure of the planning organization varies from country to country, but the responsibilities and authority of the planning agency had significance in the satisfactory execution of the plan. The histor leal development of these administrative systems charged with executing plans almost works in opposition to rational allocation of scarce resources, national plan priorities and cooperation with other agencies; the apparent concern of many ministries and agencies is self-preservation and growth. There have been many problems associated with planning in Independent Africa, amny of which have contributed to a poor performance record in successfully carrying out national plans. In hindsight, the major contributing factors to this situation were the plans themselves -their rationale, formulators , content and feasibility. The exact weight attached to each of these segments of a poor plan varies from country to country, but there is evidence that each aspect contributed to: the ineffectiveness of the majority of national plans in A f r i c a . The other prime factor was the inability to ca r r y out these plans given the existing c : executive capacities and social and political realities. CONSTRATINTS ON THE A F R I C A N PLANNING PROCESS Since independence during the 1960's, the A f r i c a n experience in planning indicated a burgeoning of national plans and a rather 53 unimpressive record of achievement in terms of these plans. Although some plans have been successfully implemented and responsible for some developmental achievements, an attempt has been made to look at the weaknesses and problems associated with many development plans in Af r i c a . It is more constructive to realize the deficiencies and try to minimize them than to dwell on praising the few successful examples . F r o m the problem areas mentioned above, it is possible to identify several constraints on effective planning in Af r i c a . This type of analysis is useful for two reasons: f i r s t , planners should recognize these problem factors as constraints which must be considered in that they influence the goals, scope and design of 'realistic' plans; second, planners may consider these factors as valuable resources to harness and incorporate in 'realistic' plans. The problems with past plans are in many cases equivalent to constraints on current and future plans, or these problems were caused by lack of consideration to the particular constraints typical of planning in Af r i c a . If it is the sincere intention of decision-makers and plan-ning agents in A f r i c a to formulate and implement plans for de-velopment, the indigenous realities which impose constraints upon this process must be accounted for. Otherwise, the planning process will remain as it has in the past - fancy plans and fruitless labors. The limitations to plan feasibility and develop-ment targets must not only be recognized, but they must be dealt with. To ignore them is an invitation to failure: to change them is a costly and possibly futile stategy: to respect and minimize them is a sensible solution: to utilize them is a constructive and 54 progressive step. Constraints to planning occur in all covintries and at all levels of government, but perhaps in A f r i c a they have manifested themselves more clearly as problems. Four main types of constraints to the planning process can be identified: administrative, social, political and economic. There are many constraints under these broad headings, many of which have been examined above as problems occurring in the past. Several of these will be briefly mentioned with a more focussed look at a few particular examples. Administrative Constraints. These are constraints upon the ability to adequately prepare and implement plans given the existing administrative realities of African countries. In the preparation of plans, several limitations face many of these, countries. There is a general lack of domestic skilled personnel experienced in plan formulation; this has necessitated the intro-duction of expatriate planners, economists and other social scientists bringing with them their own biases and a general in-sensitivity to local planning problems. Furthermore, even if local planners were available, they too would be faced with the out-standing shortages of both reliable data common to these countries and relevant tools applicable to the particular stages of development in these societies. The accessibility to the policy formulators and decision-makers is often inadequate and incomplete in the functional bureaucratic hierarchy and organizational location of the planning agents. Assuming an adequate plan has been put forward, there are many constraints inhibiting successful enactment of the policies and goals of the plan. The issue of centralized versus decentralized plan implementation presents limitation on both sides; the central admin-istration is often too removed from the countryside to make allowances for regional or local differences; the decentralized approach suffers from an . inadequate administrative framework as well as serious coordination and communication deficiencies„ The organizational positioning of the admin-istrators is often scattered throughout several agencies, isolated from decision-makers and planners, and encumbered with red-tape and dif-fused responsibilities, thus limiting coordination and coherence of implementath efforts. Often, administration of plans is thwarted by inadequate powers of enforcemait and sanctions for inducing compliance with developmental goals. Finally, as Dean (1971) emphasized, the demands placed upon , plan-executors frequently f a l l outside the area of their competence and experience, limiting their actions while they learn to handle these new tasks properly. Administrators are repeatedly asked to implement plans stressing only policies and investment budgets; they are therefore, limited by the vagueness and 'unstructuredness 1 of the task. Inexperienced and conservative bureaucrats can, and do, misconstrue priorities or incorrectly interpret policies into actions. The cap-acityaand desirability of administrators to translate broad policy statements into actions is questionable; the adaptability of admin-istrators to tasks other than well-defined projects is limited. It is a constraint on the planning process to plan according to ad-ministrative capacities, but it must be recognized and may be beneficially accommodated through well-jthought-out project planning. If the advancement of the quality and diversity of the executive 56 capabilities is not recognized as an essential plan target, the limitations imposed by them will severely constrain the achieve-ment of more sophisticated and comprehensive development goals vital to the sustained growth of the African country. Social Constraints. These are constraints which affect plan-ning objectives and influence the operational viability of the plans. Many factors might be included as social constraints - i . e. illit-eracy, mass poverty, unemployment, medical care - the list is lengthy and deeply-rooted. However, only a few of these limita-tions will be discussed. A main area of constraint is in the rural/urban dichotomy. The rapid growth of central cities in the African model has produced a distinct division between the urban-ites and the rest of the citizens (about 90%) who still reside in the country. The desires and needs of these groups are differ-ent and not always compatible; this poses serious constrictions on the choices of planners allocating funds and projects. The dislocational effect created by the present school system whereby the educated flee the countryside to the cities limits the adapt-ability of certain programs and projects to stimulate rural devel-opment. Further, the spatial dispersion of the populace com-bined with inadequate communication links can promote a system of regionalism which tempers the overall national plans to accom-modate these diverse interests, or fails to do so and incurs many obstacles to implementation. The wide gap in terms of need be-tween subsistence farmers and urban wage-earners or salaried employees creates considerable problems for decision-makers in attempting to promote development as well as to cope with this conflict of values. 57 Another key focus of contraints surrounds the ethnicity or " tr ibalism" characteristic of most African countries. The basic concern is the limitations imposed on planning by a lack of national, cultural and social unity maintained by tribal and ethnic identities. This often manifests itself in the type of patronage practiced by politicians and civil servants which overrules ques-tions of effectiveness and national priorities. The demands of various ethnic groups for special considerations and projects nec-essitates much political maneuvering to placate these groups. "Tribal ism" often contributes valuable social and welfare services, thus freeing the economy from many welfare costs; however, it is just as likely that "the system far from being an asset is an obstacle to development" (Molnos, 1970 : 12). This form of "traditional" social organization contributes to the serious short-age of African entrepeneurs which is often considered a major handicap to more rapid economic growth. Two major social factors which have serious constraining effects upon development planning, but which are seldom incorp-orated into the plan, are population and educational planning. Prime objectives included in many development plans are the optimization of human resources and improvement of social services. However, unless these plans consider the significance of education and population planning, the accomplishment of these goals will be severely restricted. Population increase rates in Africa are high, (2.6 per cent annually) even compared to other developing countries, (e.g. 2.7 per cent per annum in Latin America). This can pre-sent severe limitations to planning, e.g. less potential private 58 savings, aggravation of class and regional disparities, and dis-tortion of the age structure distribution (Molnos, 1970). A plan to increase GNP at a rate lower than the population increase rate is not a very sensible attack on the problem of increasing per capita income. Likewise, the advancement of education is a desirable goal, but because it is often neither planned nor integrated into the national plan, it can become an impediment to development. Education already consumes a large share of the small budgets available to African governments, and increased efficiency of this sector requires more sophisticated planning techniques. The current education system imposes limits on the planning process as well by such conditions as high drop-out rates, meaningless curricula ( in terms of the "real" needs of the society), income-draining school fees and high unemployment among the more educated. Political Constraints. These are constraints which define planning as a political process whereby the most efficient and economically rational goals are not necessarily the most politically rational or expedient. As Myrdal (1968 : 1888) states, " . . . all planning thus implies political choices". Given the youth of most independent African governments, it is small wonder that pol-itical considerations impose serious constraints on the planning process. Policy makers face political insecurity and factionalism within the government and are forced to choose plan goals and objectives in light of these political .. realities. Priorities are weighted very differently by politicians sensitive to tribal, regional 59 and party interests, and these concerns certainly affect their inputs into the targets associated with development plans. The pressing demands upon their time and their level of expertise again limit the contributions they as policy makers can realist-ically make. The amount of sincere dedication to national devel-opment, a vital ingredient for successful plan formulation and implementation, is often compromised by personal aspirations and influential lobbyists. Many African societies have adopted "socialism" as an appropriate means to achieve development and this generally im-plies an expanded role for the state in many spheres of economic activities (Singh, 1972). The degree of actual commitment to these policies can itself impose constraints on the planning process. Advocation of "African socialist" ideals such as income equality, publicly owned industries, universal social goods, etc., may pre-clude strategies for development that have more immediate short term benefits, enabling long run goals to be implemented gradually built upon these successes. The increased expectations of the citizens encouraged by unfillable promises of great social and economic reforms may seriously hinder public support of more fundamental generative programs as well as contribute to political unrest and instability. The policy-makers espousing such grand schemes are also forced to choose policies which emphasize econ-omic and/or social development priorities given the scarce re-sources available to them; the political temperament of the govern-ment may fetter the most efficient and integrated combination of these alternatives. The question of timing plans and programmes 60 is very political, and decision makers are constrained to choose between short versus long-term strategies and goals in the con-text of the assumed benefits implied by each course of action. That is, there is a choice between immediate gratification or imposed short-term deprivation for the long-run development. But political constraints are not confined to the national government alone; Politics play an active and conditioning role at the international and local levels as well. Even the general adop-tion of socialist goals does not guarantee clear-cut choices of planning policies or implementation strategies. African governments must seek legitimacy in the local/regional and international context, and planning objectives are often restricted to enhance the political position of the government at these levels. The threat of with-holding support (monetary or administrative) by these concerns influences the planning priorities. The naivete of new African governments and the overbearing coercive abilities of foreign countries and investors can create a situation where political ex-pediency is an actual detriment to development planning. Schatz (1969 : 677) labels this condition "crude private neo-colonialism" and is defined as the "unprincipled exploitation by some foreign firms (governments) of African governments that established govern-ment controlled, directly productive enterprises in an effort to increase economic development". The socialist desire to develop through state-run enterprises often runs afoul of external forces which include feasibility falsification, usurious credit rates, vested managerial interests, over-priced capital goods, etc. - all of which take their toll on the scarce resources of the government. 6 1 Economic Constraints. These are constraints which affect the efficient utilization of scarce developmental resources for pur-poses articulated by the plan. As indicated by several authors, the serious political and administrative constraints often outweigh the economic ones, but this neither denies nor diminishes the impact of economic conditions upon the planning process. While all countries experience economic constraints that impede fulfillment of national goals, African countries seem to have more than their share of such obstacles. A primary group of developmental limitations is the source of investment funds. As mentioned above, the basic source of revenue for these governments is the one or two basic export goods which are subject to the whims of the world market demand. It is a definite b a r r ier to estimate public revenues available for develop-mental purposes in a fluctuating economic environment. The same reasoning is applicable to planning based on aid loans and donations, and these funds often impose additional constraints by prescribing the manner in which they are utilized, regardless of the national development prior i t i e s . Most African governments are not endowed with a large supply of investment capital, and this condition, along with a serious balance of payments problem, restricts the possib-ilities of expenditures available to implement stated policy object-ives. The small amount of private savings and the profit motiv-ations of private investors (domestic or foreign) discourage effect-ive planning of this aspect of development funding. Another planning constraint is the economic targets available to which these scarce funds are to be directed. Given the 62 generally low levels of development of most sectors of the economy, how does a government allocate the minimal develop-ment resources in the most economical manner? This is indeed a good question which has no universally agreed-upon answer. It has been a primary assumption in the past that development is closely connected with, or equivalent to, industrialization; many African countries adopted this theory. However, "the expected take-off into self-sustained economic growth has failed to occur.." (Molnos, 1970 : 11), and the funds and energies invested have not rendered adequate returns. Governments are faced with choosing strategies for industrial or agricultural growth, or a combination thereof, that must receive monetary and administrative attention, .but resources and objectives often preclude equitable efforts for both. Even if the industrial stategy is pursued, the available funds necessitate the limiting of types of industries and constrict the options for producing import substitution goods, manufactured export goods and development capital goods. The underdeveloped internal markets of these countries impose limitations with re-gard to planning these other developmental techniques and must be considered into the formulation of the plans. Perhaps one of the most pressing economic . constraints to development planning is the inadequacy of the economic and social institutions characteristic of many African societies. It is extreme-ly difficult to weigh developmental projects and policies in plan preparations if none of them can be successfully achieved without firs t providing solid structural frameworks on which to superimpose them. The lack of extensive physical infrastructures 63 such as communication and transportation networks, public utilities, marketing outlets, and financial institutions as well as social infra-structures such as schools, hospitals, and houses greatly inhibit the range of possibilities to be pursued by development plans. The economic costs of providing these commodities as well as the economic costs of illiteracy, unemployment, disease, unskilled labor and rampant urban migration bear heavily upon the success-ful implementation of national plans. There are economic con-straints involved in choosing any type of development strategy, both in terms of availability of scarce resources and opportunity costs, but it is important as well to realize that there are econ-omic constraints which underly any policy considerations that may have an even more significant role in the success or failure of development planning. CONCLUSIONS Development planning in Africa is a unique phenomenon. No other developing parts of the world have experienced the phen-omenal enfranchisement of national plans that Africa has witnessed, particularly remarkable since independence has only been granted to most of these countries within the past fifteen years. Not surprisingly though, many problems unique to Africa have pre-vented successful implementation of the majority of these plans. Since the national plan still retains its prominent position in the developmental strategies of African countries, changes must be made to improve the effectiveness of these plans. In analyzing the past problems and reviewing some of the lingering constraints of national planning, the planner may be able to formulate devel-64 opmental strategies and policies which are more attuned to the political, social and economic realities of the African situation. Perhaps the constraints are too great to ever create an imple-mentable plan that really solves developmental problems, but at best more effective plans can be designed to minimize the prob-lems and maximize the chances for success within the bounds of the existing constraints. 65 C H A P T E R III C O N C E P T U A L FRAMEWORK FOR T H E PLANNING PROCESS INTRODUCTION Despite the imposing problems typical of Tropical Africa, there is optimism and determination on the part of each country to develop as far and as fast as possible. A policy of laissez  faire by the African governments does not appear to be an effi-cient or effective means of improving the status quo. African governments have recognized the need, and the mandate of the people to play an increasing role in the advancement of the society. In order to do this, the governments must have a def-inite approach to the problems of development which is best suited to meet the needs of each country. The method of ap-proaching development is usually in the form of a national development plan. But a plan is not easily prepared, nor can it be purchased from the shelf of used plans of 'developed' countries. It is a unique combination of goals, strategies and actions which can apply to only one country at one time. What is needed by African countries is not a standardized plan that is applicable to each and every country; what is needed is a framework through which each country can arrive at the development plan that is suitable to its particular situation. It is an actual planning pro-cess that incorporates all the relevant factors of each country into a development plan that is required by the African countries. There are many possible ways in which a planning process can be operated; the one suggested here is just one alternative. 66 It appears, however, to include most of the important elements which can lead to an orderly approach to the problems of devel-opment. The articulation and selection of goals and objectives is a crucial step for many African governments seeking to develop their countries. Once formulated, however, the actual achieve-ment of these goals becomes an even harder task. The planning process described below is aimed at a complete methodology for moving from goal selection to plan preparation to goal achievement. BASIC CONSIDERATIONS OF THE PLANNING PROCESS Before presenting the elements and the operational linkages of the planning framework, it is necessary to introduce some underlying characteristics of the process. The framework itself can be modified and adapted to fit the individual situation, but these basic concerns should always be incorporated into the pro-cess. The considerations not only facilitate the operation of the planning process, but also help to keep a proper perspective on the development problem itself. Comprehensiveness. One of the primary weaknesses in African planning has been fragmented and uncoordinated nature of past development plans. Often based solely on investment and sectoral allocations, previous plans lacked careful impact analysis of developmental programmes. The scope of both goals and plans has often been criticized for being too narrow and parochial. There is a recognized need for comprehensiveness and thorough-ness in the preparation of development plans. Comprehensiveness should not be confused with inflexibility. It is neither desirable nor practical to prepare "master" plans 67 that are too rigid in their application of activities to achieve specific targets. A development plan should not be viewed as an exact blueprint of the future; it should be a malleable set of sequential actions that can be altered and adopted to cope with changing situations. Comprehensiveness in the planning process entails a complete accounting of all relevant factors operating in the society. This includes the many interrelationships among social, economic and political factors affecting the developmental process. A thorough understanding of these factors is required to instigate the potential mechanisms for development. A broad and complete perspective is vital to the planning process. As Myrdal (1957 : 86) states, "Real progress in national planning, gradually lifting it to the plane of advanced applied social s.cience, will come when and as our knowledge is enriched about these functional re-lationships in the social system". The magnitude and directions of the ramifications of planned programmes and activities should be anticipated and considered throughout the planning process. The spatial incidence and effect of all activities should also be considered for all aspects of the national plan. The plans must account for the locational impact of., all its programmes because "the decision of where to locate a new project is as important as the decision to invest in it" (Friedmann and Alonso, 1964 : 1). This applies to all programmes and projects outlined in the developmental process. Because there is no correct strategy applicable to all African. countries, the planning process must comprehensively evaluate the specific needs of each country, based on the prevail-ing circumstances and the stage of development. There must be a case-specif ic role for the planning process, comprehensive in its 68 analysis of the unique factors that make up the total national situ-ation. Goals and plans must be aimed at the improvement of the society and not geared to a comparison with other countries or with insignificant indices of development. A successful planning operation should not be the attainment of specific, targets (e.g. rate of growth of GNP, industrial employment levels, school en-rollment), but an advancement of society in desired directions. Both temporal and spatial aspects should be included in the eval-uation criteria for goal achievements. A comprehensive national plan should be constantly evolving and adapting, encompassing .all of the specific information about the particular country, and es-tablishingprogrammes aimed at moving the society toward an improved condition. Regionalization. The overall needs of the country must be the prime concern of the national planning process. But the wide divergencies among sub-national regions emphasizes the need for regional analysis in the planning process. National development problems are aggregates of the problems facing all of the indivi-dual regions. As Hodder (1968 : 231) points out, " . . . a l m o s t all applied problems of economic development are regional or local problems; and the specific areal setting in which they occur is likely to reveal a unique combination of natural and human conditions." These different conditions occurring within each African country lead to different needs and potentials for development at the re-gional level. The regional imbalances play a major role in the African developmental process. The decentralization of the planning process can be helpful in the achievement of national goals. Given the numerous respon-69 sibilities and the limited administrative capacities of the federal offices, a decentralization of some of their functions can be a means to greater efficiency and effectiveness in the planning process. Those involved in the preparation of regional plans should have an understanding of the problems and concerns of the region; this can best be accomplished by personnel dealing specifically with each region, rather than from the central government offices. The disaggregation of the broader national plan into regional plans is an important component of the national planning process. Boisier (1971 : 1) notes: ". . . there seems to have been a tendency in recent years to conceive of development and regional planning as an indivis-ible and vital part of the more general processes of develop-ment and national planning. This involves a systematic approach in which each of the planning regions is envisaged as a com-ponent of a national system of regions. " The implementation of regional plans can lead to a more coordinated and effective administration of the national plan. It is important to maintain consistency of the national objectives and goals at all stages of the planning process. By breaking the national plan into smaller components, the enactment of each one becomes a more simple task. The smaller the planning scale, the easier it should be to maintain competence and management over the execution of the plans. While the total planning process emphasizes planning from the national scale down to lower levels, the inventory should be conducted from the regional scale up to the higher national level. In this sense, regional planning can help to promote better implementation of the national plan. In addition to the efficiencies in preparation and implemen-tation of the national plan, regional considerations can also 70 promote greater national integration. The recognition of the role of regional plans can demonstrate the concern of the government with the problems of regional disparities. This can create a feeling of importance for each region by acquiring a separate identity and working to solve its own problems. Identification of the people may expand beyond the local territory, when regional development is associated with a significant role in the growth of the country, it may strengthen the association between each region and the country as a whole. Data Limitations. A general scarcity of statistical inform-ation is common to all African countries. The limited communi-cation networks, the dispersed populations, the ethnic and language differences, the lack of adequately trained personnel and the col-lection costs inhibit the compilation of accurate and continuous data. This is particularly detrimental when demographic and econ-omic information is not readily available. A sound body of data is a vital part of the planning process, and this limitation in A f r i c a must be considered. Alonso (1968) emphasizes the necessity to account for limitations in data when trying to apply predictive planning models. It is better to adjust for data deficiencies than to try and read too much into them; the magnification of error through computations when inaccurate data is applied to predictive models can result in misdirected efforts. When necessary, it is possible to substitute proxy indica-tors for quantitative data. It is better to get a "fee l " for the situation by whatever means are available (e.g. surveys or asking "locals") than to ignore a particular set of circumstances because 71 of a lack of hard facts. Although this method may be more sub-jective than desirable, it at least 'focuses attention on as many factors as possible. In such a situation, however, it must also be recognized that there are numerous political overtones which can be associated with this type of information accumulation. It is important to incorporate informational constraints into the planning process. The plans should address themselves to the information problem by establishing flexible qualifications for the data inputs. They should also consider the objective of careful collection and documentation of all information obtained during the planning process. Additionally, data should be collected during and after the course of developmental programmes and projects. This information can be used to monitor the progress of the pro-grammes. The plans should also establish c r i t e r i a for evaluating the success of planned activities which are based on the data gathered during the plan period. In this manner, the body of in-formation can be expanded over time to ensure comparative time-series data which is crucial in a dynamic planning process. FRAMEWORK OF T H E PLANNING PROCESS Presented below is a conceptual framework of a dynamic planning process (see Figure 1). This demonstrates one way in which many of the relevant aspects of development can be incor-porated into a single planning process. It is a general illustration of the components and the procedure that can be used to formulate goals, select strategies, create policies, and prepare plans. Although this may be slightly modified to suit specific cases, it is an at-tempt to interpret the integral parts and linkages c r i t i c a l to effect-FIGURE 1 Political Structure Regional Imbalances Urban-| ization Planning Organization National Goals and Objectives Current Status —y\s Infra-structure 7F ZE J Strategies National Policies Means Constraints Regional Policies Delivery Mechanisms ZF Human Resources 7K 31 Agriculture Resources /T7 National Plans Implementation 7T Regional Plans Industry ZL De ve lopment . Potential Plan Evaluation 73 ive developmental planning for all African countries. Briefly, the process operates as follows. Data is collected from the eight sectors comprising the current status inventory. This information is filtered through the appropriate government offices (the decision-makers) and then through the official planning organization for evaluation. Through careful analy-sis and discussion of all relevant issues, national goals and ob-jectives are formulated. Given these goals, developmental strat-egies are selected in context of the existing means and constraints on their achievement. F r o m the strategies, national policies are formed which in turn provide a basis for regional policies. A national plan is then constructed; the complementary regional plans are disaggregated from this overall development plan. Each regional plan should conform to both the national and region-al-level policies for development. These plans set forth specific actions and programmes which are then implemented by the respon-sible authorities and departments. Finally, the results of the plans are evaluated and the altered national environment is re-inventoried, commencing the process again. DESCRIPTION OF T H E COMPONENTS The framework presented lists the main components and the orderly flow of the planning process. To add depth to this frame-work, it is necessary to elaborate briefly on each of the key factors and to define some of the concepts. The issues of com-prehensiveness, regionalization and data limitations should be con-sidered when reviewing the many elements associated with each step of the process. Though not exhaustive, it is hoped that the 74 main considerations listed for each stage will suggest the complex issues and information necessary to apply this framework. The description of the components will follow the order of the process. Current Status. The first step is an inventory of the current condition of the spatial area in question. This includes socio-economic, demographic, infrastructure and natural resource data. In some cases, available data is sufficient to insert direct-ly into the inventory; in other cases, judgements are required to answer questions raised dealing with comparisons or subjective issues. 1. Regional Imbalances - This deals with the concept of dualism and the differences between groups of people as well as sub-national areas. These differences reflect the extent of national integration as well as the divergent regional concerns and interests. The level of these imbalances should include: - the rural versus urban distribution - the modern versus traditional orientation - the political participation rates - the types and distribution of employment - the tribal versus state affiliation - the money versus non-money markets. Also included should be the degree of dominance enjoyed by certain regions over others in terms of multiplicity of functions, industrialization, inf rastructural development, and income levels. The existing definition of regions - both formal and informal -should be described. Any existing problems that are directly related to regional imbalances or inadequate regional delimitations should be noted. 2. Urbanization - The concentration of persons in urban centres and the spatial incidence of these centres is an important 75 factor in the developmental planning process. A workable and consistent definition of urban places should be adopted and utilized. The important features to be considered are the number of urban dwellers,, the percentage of urban dwellers out of the total popula-tion and ; the functional and spatial hierarchy of urban centres. Urbanization should also be viewed in terms of: - the historical pattern of urban development - the functional roles of urban centres - the growth rates of urban centres - the centres of atypical growth - deliberate or spontaneous - the average size of non-urban centres - the rural-urban migration rates - the degree of primacy among urban centres - the existing governmental policy on urban growth. It is possible to derive some of the trends and issues from the statistical data. But in some cases, answers are only found in the perceptions of those dealing with the problem itself. There are many causes of migration, urban growth and spatial concentration of the population; some analysis will be required to make some explanations of the particular forces operating in each African country. 3. Infrastructure - This information deals with amount and type of physical infrastructure available throughout the country. The quality, costs and spatial distribution of these services is an im-portant consideration in the planning process. This is especially significant when compared with the distribution of population. Some of the basic infrastructure information includes: - communication networks (radios, telephones, newspapers) -. hospital and medical centres - schools and training centres - water supplies - sewage systems - energy supplies (electricity, gas, oil) - housing supplies 76 - shipping and marketing facilities - transportation networks. Even if accurate and detailed data are not available for all of these factors, it should be possible to detect the strengths and weaknesses in the infrastructure. This analysis should establish priorities to provide for critical shortages and to plan a staged infrastructure investment schedule. 4. Delivery Mechanisms - In addition to the physical infra-structure, there are numerous institutions which finance and admin-ister the distribution of social services and programmes. These include both private and public institutions, foreign and domestic agencies, and a variety of local, regional and national administra-tive bodies. An awareness of the agencies responsible for providing social programmes at all levels is vital to ensure a proper coordin-ation of all governmental service activities. Information should be collected for such factors as: - the controlling interests in the media and the ownership and operation of all communication networks - the agencies financing and responsible for health care and the amount of trained medical personnel - the institutions responsible for financing, personnel and curricula associated with the education system - the management and provision of sewer and water systems - the management and source of energy supplies - the coordination of housing construction and allotments - the housing finance institutions - the agencies responsible for marketing operations (govern-ments, cooperatives, regional boards, etc.) - the agencies responsibile for provision and control of the transportation and trade networks - the agencies responsible for manpower training, social welfare, family planning, etc. This list is not exhaustive; the responsible parties for all governmental activity should be inventoried. A greater understand-ing of the delivery systems can increase the efficiency and 77 effectiveness of the infrastructure and the services. Not all of these agencies are under the control of the government and many of them may be providing duplicate services. The administrative structuring at a l l levels plays a significant role in the overall planning process. 5. Human Resources - The state of the human population is a cr i t i c a l factor to African societies. As noted above, the human resources are often considered to be the prime asset for development in A f r i c a . Besides national and regional population and population growth rate figures, demographic information should include: - age and sex distribution statistics - regional and local population density levels - education and sk i l l levels - health and nutrition standards - ethnic and language groupings - religious affiliations and attitudes - degrees of contact among various peoples and regions - work force composition and labour participation rates - unemployment levels and spatial distribution - immigration rates and composition - standard of living differences and distribution of wealth - major social institutions and organizations. In addition to a description of the current social organiza-tion and welfare levels, some analysis should be included about . existing trends which may have a significant impact on the future characteristics of the society. This would include both population and age/sex distribution forecasts as well as estimates of social infrastructure demands. Planners could then project more accurately the necessary timing of human development programmes and capital investments. 6. Agriculture and Primary Resources - This includes both wage and non-wage farming, mining, quarrying and forestry. This 78 sector of the economy provides a higher percentage of GNP, export-earnings and employment than any other sector. In addition to this information, data should be gathered about such factors as: - the extent of subsistence farming - the extent of cash crop farming - the basic agricultural crops and annual outputs - the physical limitations to agriculture (e.g. climate) - the land tenure system - the basic primary resource products and annual outputs - the degree of mechanization in agriculture and resource production - the techniques and productivity levels - the ratio of exports to local consumption - the current prices of goods and the stability of markets. It is also important to determine the existing trends for this sector and the reasons behind them. This should be compared to any existing government policies which explicitly deal with this sector of the economy. . 7. Industry - This sector of the economy, although typically small in African societies, is considered by many developmental planners to be a prime factor in the developmental process. Industrialization is often equated with growth and modernization. Among other things, the inventory should include the industrial contributions to GNP, export-earnings and employment. Some of the other important characteristics to be considered are: - the type of manufacturing ( capital or' non-capital) - the production techniques (capital versus labour intensive) - the export/import trade balance - the productivity and technology levels - the number and size of firms - the location of industries (production plants and offices) - the ownership characteristics of firms (public or private, foreign or domestic) - the rate of exports to local consumption - the current prices and the stability of markets - the rate of import substitution activity. The growth and development of industry has much in common 79 with urbanization, infrastructure build-ups and the availability of skilled labour. These factors should all be considered when looking at trends in industrialization. The policies of the govern-ment directed at the industrial sector should also be critically evaluated. 8. Development Potential - This part of the inventory de-scribes the known or estimated resources that could be instru-mental in the developmental process. It is necessary to be fam-iliar with these potential resources and where they are located. The examination of these should refer to: new or underdeveloped natural resources not yet exploited - energy resources not .yet developed (e.g. hydroelectric power) - industrial capacity that is currently underutilized - technological innovations and scientific production methods - sub-optimal agricultural land uses - currently inaccessible markets - underutilized human resources. In many instances, however, the real bottleneck in the de-velopmental process is the structural deficiencies in the manage-ment and administrative institutions, not in the real lack of po-tential wealth. This deficiency is often associated with the use of investment capital - both public and private. Normally capital is a limited commodity in African countries, but there seems to be an increasing amount of money available to African governments. This is result of increased amounts of international aid, improved trade relations and an increasing amount of foreign investments and loans. Policies toward capital accumulation and the extent of in-vestment capital should be examined in detail. Political and Administrative Structure. Once the inventory has been completed, this information is chanelled to the government for evaluation. The type of government and the role of the various 80 actors in the political structure has significant influence in the planning process. The inexperience and instability of most African governments affects the choices of goals, strategies and policies. Most African governments are unique in their form and organization, as well as in their political priorities. There is no adequate characterization of a "typical" African government; however, it is possible to mention some of the factors which exert political pressures of some form on the governments. Although it is difficult to account for personalities and informal political operations, there are several elements which can be described in a meaningful way. Listed among these would be: - the colonial heritage (e.g. British, French) and the length of independence - the means of acquiring power (e.g. coup, elections, etc.) - the number and strength of political parties - the role and strength of the military - the extent of ethnic political power and influence - the spatial location of political power (i.e. r u r a l or urban) - the degree of legitimacy and stability of the government - the functional organization of the government (i.e. type of legislature, ministerial structure, departments) - the major national interest groups (e.g. tribal, labour, religious, business, etc.) - the major international pressure groups (e.g. international organizations, trade associates, foreign aid donors, mult-national corporations, etc.) - the amount of functional decentralization to local and region-al governments - the responsiveness and communication to the citizens - the bureaucratic institutions and administrative capacities. The analysis of these issues will provide much information about the future, as well as the planning decisions. Maintenance of power is a primary concern of African governments and the sensitivity to political realities significantly influences the deci-sion-makers within the planning process. The problems which have potentially disruptive consequences may become the main target of government actions; problems which have less political urgency 81 may be relegated to lower planning priority. An understanding of this situation will suggest some of the main concerns of the gov-ernments that are expressed in the name of the development. The political philosophy of development plays a major role in the national planning process. The role of the governments at various phases depends upon this philosophy; governments es-pousing capitalistic development will have different goals and priorities than those advocating socialistic development. Broad statements of policies and commitments can reveal the general inclinations of the governments. However, it is necessary to ex-amine the precise role that the government expects to play in the developmental process as this will greatly influence the planned governmental activities and programs. Planning Organization. The influence and role of the official planning organization is largely determined by the government it -self. Where the government leaders take an active role in the planning process at a number of stages, the planners may act only as technical advisers. On the other hand, governments that assume only an ideological and supervisory function leave much of the planning process to be carried out by the professional body. The range of combinations is large. Although ultimate responsibil-ity lies principally with the national leaders, trained planners should be encouraged to make inputs at all levels of the planning process. Among the things which should be analyzed are: - the official planning framework on the national, regional and local levels - the administrator responsible for planning (e.g. cabinet minister, department head, committee, etc.) - the number and type of professionals acting in planning capacity 82 - others who contribute to the planning process (e.g. scholars, business leaders, expatriate consultants, international agencies, etc. ) - the source of planning funds (e.g direct to planning agency sector budgeting, project allocations, departmental budgets, etc.) - the administrative capacities of the planning organizationn in light of its responsibilities - the availability of data and information resources - the types of plans utilized (i.e. sectoral, project, etc.) - the established time horizons and the amount of flexibility and adaptivity allowed in the plans - the means for improving the planning process built into the development plans. Planning can be done by many different methods and persons, and the official planning organization is only one possible option. It is important to discover who has vested interests in and contributes to the planning process. The formal organization of the planning office may include a wide range of planning, respon-sibilities and capacities; the informal organization may greatly contract or expand these duties. A lack of trained personnel and political restraints may seriously hamper the flexibility and role of the planning body. Trained planners can, and should, contribute to the planning process. National Goals and Objectives. A l l societies wish to pro-gress and improve their present circumstances. This is particu-larlyvtrue in A f r i c a where they are trying to catch up to the rest of the world in a short period of time; they are committed to economic, social and political development. The priorities and urgent demands of society should be translated into national goals and objectives by the government leaders assisted by advisory planners. Some possible goal choices might include the following efforts: - strengthen political stability and national integration - maximize economic growth 83 - maximize national welfare and the distribution of develop-ment benefits in the most equitable manner - decrease social, economic and political regional imbalances - increase the functional and spatial integration of the country - decrease rural-urban migration and the rapid urban growth rate speed the pace of industrialization - expand the amount and distribution of all infrastructure - decentralize the functions of the government - improve the administrative capacity of the government - increase the amount of investment capital. Many of these potential goals and objectives are interrelated; the advocacy of one may imply the acceptance of''others. :• Some are not very compatible, however, at least during the early stages of development. As each country is unique, it is difficult to establish the few key factors which lead to a desired course of development. Generally, a combination of most of these goals and objectives will be necessary over time to enable a comprehensive approach to development. Strategies. Strategies for development can be equated v/ith the alternative methods of achieving stated goals, given the means and constraints of the existing societal structure. Strategies deal in terms of how the problems may be resolved; these are general statements about the types of actions that could be pursued to accomplish the established objectives. When more than one de-velopmental strategy is approved, there must be conscientious coordination among them so that the range of objectives is adequately covered, without duplication or omission of any factor. The selection of strategies is a crucial stage in the de-velopmental planning process. In an optimal situation, the decision-makers and the trained planners can weigh the alternatives and choose strategies which demonstrate the most efficient and 84 effective means to the desired ends. Although there are many-theoretical strategies for development, the applicability of any of the existing models must be carefully considered. Strategies should be selected that most adequately reflect the needs and circumstances of each African country. Strategy options are also determined by the prevailing conditions within the country; the means and constraints arising from the present situation must be satisfactorily incorporated into the choice of strategies. Policies. National policies are broad statements describing the proposed management and formulation of the developmental process. These policies should reflect the goals and strategies chosen by the government. They should also indicate the general direction towards which the society is supposed to develop. The range of objectives and the anticipated effects of the proposed strategies on the national system should be stated in the policy. Basically, a national policy should elaborate the strategies to provide a set of general guidelines for action. Adherence to the directives of the policy should result in consistency among the decision-makers so that a l l activities point to a preferred future state. Regional policies evolve from the national policies and should be consistent with them. They should deal explicitly with the goals and planned consequences of activities that affect a specific region. Not all of the factors included in the comprehen-sive national policy will be applicable to each region (e.g. the development of a certain river basin or the exploitation of a specific mineral resource). However, everything that is included in the regional policies must conform to the guidelines established 85 for the nation as a whole (e.g. a rural development policy within the region must coincide with the broader rural development policy of the country). Policies can be applied in several different ways. The policies can be internal to the government and the administrative offices; they would serve as the guidelines by which all of the affairs of the c i v i l service are dictated. They might also be separated into two parts: a more detailed part that remains inter-nal to the government and a more general part that is presented to the public at large. Or policy can be made a fully public issue -e.g. the Arusha Declaration of Tanzania's President Nyerere. Public proclamations of policy can be useful for several reasons, among them: to explain the actions of the government and the logic behind them; to solicit public support and allegiance to the developmental program; and to direct all decision-makers (e. g. consumers, businessmen, farmers, etc.) toward common objectives. Plans. The plans are the written result of the comprehen-sive planning process. Using the guidelines developed in the con-text of policies and the activities indicated by the selected strategies, the plans should be detailed sets of actions that pursue the successful achievement of national goals and objectives. The plans list a prescribed course of deliberate interference in the existing socio-economic structure. They should point out pre-cisely what types of government activities will take place during the plan period. National plans should include: allocations of funds under broad categories, investment proposals, special programmes, major government projects, and institutional and organizational 86 changes. These should be described in terms of a specific im-plementation sequence as well as a limited time horizon for the entire plan; this should also include the regional distribution of these activities. A l l aspects of the plan should have both spatial and temporal attributes associated with them. Regional plans are disaggregated from the national plan and should adhere to the guidelines of the regional policies. The types of investments, programmes, etc. , listed in the national plan that are to be activated in the region will be incorporated into the regional plan. Whereas the national plan makes only general spatial allocations (i. e. by region), the regional plan must deter-mine the specific areas and the distribution of all activities within the region. This is true to the urban centre level, but not the precise intra-urban location of investments; this should be de-cided by the local planners and/or planning committees. It is at this level that the most detailed accounting of the entire planning process occurs; within the regional plans, the sites, designs and costs of all projects must be specified. The national and regional plans are the tangible products of the planning process. The activities listed and described in these plans are then implemented in order to change the society. Actions aimed at national and regional development stem directly from these plans. Once these planned measures are exercised, the net effects of the planning process can be evaluated. After the plans are made and implemented, the dynamic operation of the planning process can be set in motion again. 87 APPLICATION OF THE PROCESS The operation of this comprehensive planning process, though not difficult, requires a large data supply, a good commu-nication system at all stages, and a coordinated effort to make it work. The subtleties at work in each country exert significant differences so that this framework is specific to each application. It would be difficult to instigate this process for a given country without actively being involved in the process itself. However, by singling out an element within the framework, it is possible to check its applicability to the process. One such example would be to concentrate on a specific development strategy - this could then be evaluated in light of possible goals, policies and plan adaptions. This is the proposed method for evaluating both the strategy and the framework in terms of its relevancy to African planning. After reviewing the general difficulties that have been associated with the African planning systems and presenting a new process framework, a specific developmental strategy will be dis-cussed to test the applicability of this proposed planning process. Additionally, the example of a growth centre strategy will also be evaluated in terms of its potential for realizing developmental goals. Although the growth centre strategy has been applied in different parts of the world, it seems to hold significant poten-tial in the African case. The possibilities that can be associated with growth centres are numerous and will be explored within the proposed process framework. Following the theoretical dis-cussion, the growth centre strategy and its role in the planning process will be related to a case study. 8 8 C H A P T E R IV THE GROWTH C E N T R E S T R A T E G Y IN AFRICA "The concept of 'concentrated decentralization' apparently implies a situation whereby development efforts are focussed on 'growth centres' both within the relatively progressive areas and within the peripheries." (Bakwesegha, 1974 : 64) INTRODUCTION In an effort to make national and regional planning a more effective process, African nations are seeking policies and strategies which will successfully realize developmental objectives. The unequal distribution of development within most African countries suggests a strong case for 'concentrated decentralization' as proposed by Rodwin (1961). The ability to anticipate and in-fluence growth has been a major concern of African countries, and the "policy most likely to achieve current goals would seem to be the creation of several regional centres" (Rodwin, 1961 : 137). This 'growth centre strategy' holds significant potential for African countries. The growth centre theory has been the subject of a large body of literature within the past twenty years. Many authors and theorists have, approached the concept from several different directions; growth centre policy has been applied in several countries with varying degrees of success. The application of this strategy has been a relatively recent phenomenon in Africa and the experiences with it have been limited. But there is a growing awareness among African leaders and planners that a growth centre strategy can play a vital role in the process of development. As Rosser (1972 : 71) suggests: 89 " . . . there has been a marked and fundamental shift in thinking, coinciding with deep ideological motivation, toward rural development, regional planning, balanced development, land policy, growth centres, and so f o r t h . . . " GROWTH C E N T R E THEORY The growth centre theory has attracted a great deal of interest in both developed and developing countries. The numerous articles and ideas which have attempted to shed more light on this concept attest to its intriguing character. The growth centre con-cept has its foundation in the 'growth pole' (poles de croissance) theory introduced by Perroux in 1955. Dealing primarily with abstract economic space, Perroux described the unbalanced nature of economic growth as it is manifested in poles of growth. Perroux dealt with such notions as propulsive industries, dominance, exter-nal economies and innovations as factors influencing the transmission of growth in an abstract space economy. Boudeville is credited with later adding the geographical dimension to this idea of polar-ized growth (Hermansen, 1971). It is this application of the growth pole applied to a geographical location which has been expanded upon in the growth centre concept. The more general notion of unbalanced (polarized) development has also been dealt with extensively by such authors as Hirschman (1958), Myrdal (1957) and Friedmann (1972). Although there is not a set definition of a growth centre, it usually refers to an urban area which is a focal point for developmental planning. It is typically a planned geographical point or activity node that exerts a dominant role on its sur-rounding area through its propulsive economic activities, which are diffused outward from the centre. Nichols (1969 : 8) qual-90 itatively describes a growth centre as an "urban centre of econ-omic activity which can achieve self-sustaining growth to the point that growth is diffused outward and eventually beyond into the less-developed region." This is not a well-accepted definition, however, because it minimizes the importance of the basic act-ivity economic function of growth centres; that is, most of the profit of the propulsive industry is exported from the growth centre so growth is transmitted to the rest of the national econ-omy. It is primarily the indirect benefits of growth which filter down to the rest of the region from the' growth centre. In this manner a growth centre is usually more than simply a growing urban area or a large-scale industry; it must also encompass specific activities and services which generate and diffuse this growth to the rest of the region in which it is located. In an excellent critique of growth centre theory, Darwent (1969) analyzes the usefulness and applicability of this idea. In this comprehensive review of the literature, Darwent concludes that while the explanatory value of the concept is limited, its normative aspect is of great value. Additionally, because the growth centre notion deals with urban areas and development in geographic space, it also has potential as a planning tool. Darwent (1969 : 21) writes: "This concept purports to deal with distribution of growth and allocation of investment in real space. . . it provides what promises to be a dynamic theory of growth and development and it provides a basis for giving to development theory a spatial dimension. Growth centre ideas are addressed square-ly to planning problems. " Consistent with the theory of 'concentrated decentralization1, many authors feel that growth centres are an alternative to high 91 primacy settlement systems. Although a spatial concentration of activity and growth may be a necessity during the early stages of development, this can lead to a politically unacceptable dualism. Governments are faced with two alternatives: pursuing the most efficient method of development and growth through continued in-vestment in developed cities and regions; or seeking an even distribution of growth by investing in the lagging areas. It is more toward the spatial equity alternative that growth centres are applied. . . "given that some nations feel that they must develop their poorer regions, a policy of 'growth centres' has been sug-gested as a means of bringing about development" (Nichols, 1969 : 4). Although the growth centre notion has its roots in economic growth, it is being expanded to encompass a broader meaning of development. It is not enough to focus on economic growth when African countries are also concerned with development of their human resources and modernization* of their societies. A 'growth centre' is capable of initiating and transmittimg social as well as economic development to the area around it. The role of the growth centre is very flexible; this should have particular appeal to the diverse needs of the African countries. As Darwent (I960 : 3) notes, " . . . t h e interest in the normative has broadened the basis of growth centre notions to include variables other than econ-omic - such as political, social, cultural and political. " *Modernization, as defined by Ilchman and Bhargava (1966 : 397) is "a process of improving the capability of a nation's institutions and value system to meet increasing and differing demands. " 92 There is a great deal of intuitive appeal to the notion of growth centres. It is an adjustable concept with potential usage for a broad range of developmental goals. In this sense, it is an adaptive strategy which may be quite useful in the African context. Unfortunately, because of its lack of clearly defined characteristics, the practical application of the theory has been limited. There is much to learn about the functioning of a growth centre and the ways in which it can promote success in the achievement of developmental goals. Rodwin (1972 : 9) remarks: "As we have, as yet, learned little more than the rudi-ments of how to convert an urban centre into a growth centre and how to radiate effects of such growth centres over the surrounding hinterlands. " Despite the lack of such knowledge, there is enough theor-etical background in the growth centre theory to make it a viable development strategy. Perhaps the gaps in the theory make it more applicable to promote indigenous ideas in Africa , unlike many other developmental theories which come in a well-polished form from developed areas. It can be molded to fit the needs of the African societies and their specific goals. GROWTH CENTRES' AND C E N T R A L P L A C E S IN A F R I C A The standard application of growth centre theory deals with the propulsive economic function of certain industries located at activity centres in geographic space. The basic activities associated with these centres are assumed to distribute direct multiplier benefits to the economy as a whole and indirect bene-fits to the regions in which they are located. The diffusion of developmental benefits is directly related to functional distance decay effects over the regional space, but the theory does not 93 explain how this diffusionary process occurs. It is in this con-text that growth centre theory comes in contact with central place theory. Central place theory was developed by Christaller and Losch to explain the distribution of goods and services and facilities supplying them in space. It is based on an observation of economic rationality associated with demand and consumer behavior. Losch based his theory on the production of secondary goods at the market-oriented stages while Christaller dealt pr i -marily with service activities to explain the ordering of market places in space. The theory attempts to create normative hier-archies of settlements based on the variety of goods and services offered over a given economic landscape. Losch starts with the lowest order centre (providing the least goods) and works up to the highest order central place; Christaller formulated his net-work by starting with the largest centre (providing the greatest amount and highest order of services) and works his way down to the most local markets. In their own separate ways, they both established a central place hierarchy which provided the necessary level of goods and services given a defined economic landscape. Unlike growth centre theory, central place concepts assume an agricultural economic base. The main concern of central place theory is the non-basic function of centres and the distribution of non-basic goods and services in an orderly pattern throughout the countryside. While growth centre theory is primarily concerned with the the development generated by basic economic activities, central place theory does not address itself to the economic 94 growth of either the centres or the surrounding hinterlands. The relationship between these theories occurs when a central place regional hierarchy is utilized to explain the way in which devel-opmental benefits will filter down from growth centres (Webster, 1973). The combination of these two theories can help to explain the transmission of development and change over regional space. The hierarchical system of centres associated with central place theory can be used to formulate urbanization and regional planning policies. A systematic ordering of settlements can be an efficient way of organizing the administration of regions and distributing developmental investments. The functional role of all central places in a region can determine the level and types of services that should be provided to fu l f i l l regional planning goals; thus bottlenecks and duplications which may be detrimental to regional development may be avoided. Berry (1967) suggests that Christaller 1 s approach is most applicable to sparsely popu-lated regions while Lbsch's procedure is most relevant to densely populated regions which are undergoing economic change. Both of these types of areas can be found in the African context, thereby indicating a potential usefulness of central place concepts to African regional planning. The relationship between the urban and the rur a l sectors is undergoing rapid change in the African situation. Rapid urban-ization creates more pressure on the rural areas to supply agri-cultural and primary resource products; the rural areas are demanding a greater share of developmental and social investments (e.g. technical aid, educational and health facilities, urban amen-ities and services, etc.). The identification of the Central Place 95 hierarchy can help create an effective relationship between rural and urban areas which will lead to desirable changes. As Berry (1976:133) states: "Regions with insufficiently developed networks may find establishment of new centres a priority activity. Availability of a proper hierarchy enables rational planning of facilities to proceed, without waste, at the correct scales. Establishment of a new centre or upgrading an old one can provide a powerful stimulus to development of the surrounding area, setting the pace for its progress. " Several African plans have incorporated a 'growth centre1 policy to reorganize the spatial and functional structure of the countryside, In most cases, however, the:concept that is being implemented is a modified application of central place theory. Rather than dealing with the establishment of propulsive basic activities in rural areas, the plans are more concerned with an optimal pattern of central places that will ensure the most rational distribution of goods and services. These central places are also conceived as focal points in the diffusion of expectations and innovations which are vital to the modernization and development. of the country. Besides promoting efficiencies in developmental investments, an organized distribution system (via central places) is capable of: creating a new sense of social and political unity in the various regions;; preventing a continued drift of ambitious and energetic persons to the urban areas; and maximizing theiuse of regional resources (Grove and Huszar, 1964). If central place hierarchies, or 'growth centres', can promote these types of changes, they will contribute greatly to African national development. The following examples will demonstrate the ways in which 'growth centres' have been applied in the developmental process in Tanzania, Ghana and Nigeria. (Note: In the remainder of the text, the term 'growth centre' will be used in the African context - i . e . as part of central places and not propulsive activity nodes - except when specifi-cally referring to the common application of growth centre strategy.) GROWTH CENTRES IN TANZANIA Tanzania, in an attempt to implement the socialist society that is desired by the government, has paid much attention to the spatial pattern of development. It has been at the forefront of comprehensive developmental planning by considering the distribution of population and the functional hierarchy of settlements in their national plans. As Mabogunje (1972:24) remarks, "the Tanzania Development Plan 1969-1974 makes a significant step forward in planning activities in A f r i c a . F o r the fi r s t time ever, urban and regional planning proposals are integrated with themore conventional sectoral planning. . . " REgional planning occupies a major role in the national developmental planning process in Tanzania, and participationtin the process is encourage even at the village level. Inherent in this type of ideology and planning process are the factors of space and distance; the government has become increasingly concerned with the location of economic activities in its developmental policies. As viewed by the planners, a settlement system "Should create optimal conditions for production and will serve its purpose as long as it is capable of fostering technical, social and economic progress. " (Pioro, 1971:44). The existingi.settlement system, inherited from colonial days, is not generating increasing productivity or standards of living; therefore, it is assumed to be an obsolete system. Transformation of the settlement system is now a major policy issue. In order that the national effort would be purposefully and efficiently directed, there is a recognized need for integrated national and regional planning. The overall development needs must be based on a lasting 97 and well coordinated improvement of the settlement pattern )ver the long term, and not merely the result of temporary or 'crisis' planning. This led to the "transformation approach - the introduction of technical, social and technical systems" to perman-ently rearrange the productivity and functional levels of the countryside (Pioro, 1971 : 46). As an example of this type of approach, the government sought to resettle many of the persons occupying the semi-arid areas which constitute two-thirds of the country; this was to be accomplished by the "creation of villages which would become growth centres of social and commercial de-velopment for the surrounding areas." (Pioro, 1971 : 47). Other programmes of the government are also involved in this trans-formation process. One of the most significant changes in the developmental policy occurred after the Arusha Declaration of 1967. This established a set of guidelines which were to be followed in the pursuit of African socialism, rural development, and self-reliance. During the period 1967 - 1969 three physical plans incorporating these ideas were prepared in Tanzania. Each plan was designed to fit the needs of the particular area; the size and functional hier-archy of settlements reflect the different interpretations and con-scious application of the growth centre strategy utilized by those preparing the plans. Each of these plans dealt with a distinct type of planning area, providing good experience for the planners. There appears to be a close coordination of these plans as efforts were made to demonstrate the well-ordered spatial organization necessary for development. Dar es Salaam Master Plan. As the largest city, the capital and the industrial and cultural centre of Tanzania, 98 Dar es Salaam will maintain its dominant position as the growth centre of the country. But the current rate of population growth, ten per cent per annum, is too large to benefit either the city or the development of the rural areas. Just as rampant immigration creates staggering urban problems for Dar es Salaam, it also drains the r u r a l areas ~>f persons which can be more gainfully employed outside of this city. The Master Plan, therefore, set a rate of population growth at six per' cent annually. This requires a well-defined urbanization policy on the part of the government; such a policy would provide for the creation of new growth centres in other parts of the country to serve as attractive alternatives to potential urban migrants. This type of policy was incorporated into both the Dar es Salaam Regional Plan and the Development Plan for the Handeni District, Dar es Salaam_ Regional Plan. With Dar es Salaam as the centre and a sphere of influence approximately fifty kilometres in radius, the region covers about 4, 700 square miles and has a population around 300,000. The population is widely dispersed as most of the people live in small hamlets; the existing settlement pattern, consisting of six functional units, is considered "too complicated to function effectively". To realign the population into preferential settlement patterns and to control the population in-crease :>f Dar es Salaam., the plan proposed a three-level urban hierarchy. This was designed primarily to service the rural areas as required for the development of agriculture, but is also sought to offer a counter-attraction for migration to the capital. The settlements, as described by Pioro (1971), are: 99 (a) Local service centres - These fifteen settlements are distributed to provide all rural villages (within 10 miles) easy access to: education, health, commerce, security, post and communications, petrol and repair stations, and small-scale production of building materials; (b) Intermediate service centres - These five centres provide all the services under (a) as well as: repair and manufacturing of tools and equipment, wood processing, local food manufacturing and agricultural processing; (c) Major regional centre - Ruvu, which at present is a small village, will grow to 50, 000 and provide services equivalent to Dar es Salaam. It should also be considered as an equal location to Dar for all new industries. Along with the services provided in (a) and (b), there will be such services as: a pulp mil l , building material production, agricultural products processing, leather goods, etc. The major role played by Ruvu in this scheme is to serve as a new centre of attraction to stop the population flow into Dar es Salaam. This hierarchy is deemed essential in the development of the region, transforming the countryside into a system of polar-ized centres of influence to increase the effectiveness of both the area and the human activities. Physical Development Plan for the Handeni District. This district of the Tanga region is faced with perennial agricultural hardships due to poor soil and the scarcity of water. The area is sparsely populated with only six per cent of the population in concentrated settlements. By focussing on greater utilization of local resources, it is hoped that the area can become more self-sufficient. The plan proposes to create a balanced settlement pattern, an optimal land and resource utilization programme, and an adequate provision of infrastructure to service the entire district. The plan proposed the following five-grade settlement hierarchy: (a) Minor Village - With a population between 200 - 500 persons, this area would include a nursery school, mobile dispensary, cooperative centre, community centre, 100 market and shops; (b) Minor rural centre - With a population between 500-1,000, this would have the same services as in (a) plus lower primary school, religious buildings, and dispensary; (c) Major r u r a l centre - A population of 1,000 - 2,000 will be served as in (b) plus upper primary school, agricul-tural tools warehouse, public buildings (post office, ad-ministration), poultry farm and cottage industries; (d) Minor district town - With a population of 2,000 - 5,000, it will provide all of the lower level services plus a., hospital, post office, administration office, tractor station, petrol station, and dairy; (e) Major district town - This district headquarters (Handeni), with 5,000 people or more, will provide such additional services as a secondary school, library, museum, sports stadium, bus depot, water purification plant, and sewage disposal system. The increasing number and level of facilities from lower to higher settlements makes this a dependent and interrelated system. This application of the growth centre theory is based on the theory of central places - i.e. r u r a l settlements equidistantly located around service centres of various categories. It is also, hoped that the complementary services and industries may eventually induce multiplier effects, creating favourable external economies within the area (Pioro, 1971). Growth Centres and Growth Potential. To select other areas for this type of rational and consistent developmental approach, it is considered vital to categorize the national space according to different potentials for development and different needs. Each district can be graded on certain basic growth factors and then the national territory can be sorted into different areas of settle-ment structures. Pioro (1971) performed this exercise and estab-lished three categories covering all of Tanzania. He then pro-posed a model of patterns for each of these areas that conforms 101 to the government's aspirations and ideals for the transformation of the countryside. 1. Areas of Highest Industrial Potential - These areas have the best agricultural and industrial potential, and these are generally the most developed areas of the country. The population density is high, the infrastructure, labour force and markets are well-developed, the soil and climate are good, etc. Because these areas possess all the factors of polarized development, the settle-ment patterns do not demand immediate change. The current three-tier hierarchy is considered structurally efficient as it i s : (a) Minor r u r a l centres - The centre and its sphere of in-fluence, extending from three to five kilometres, includes about 1,200 to 1,500 persons and provides services to all of the scattered farmers. The services include: nursery and primary school, cooperative centre, shops, market, dispensary, religious building, community centre and a public building; (b) Major r u r a l centre - The. sphere of influence will include up to ten minor centres, forming an agro-industrial com-plex. The growth centre will have about 2,000 - 3,000 people. This centre will provide more and improved services as in (a), plus a storehouse for agricultural implements, administration, police and post office build-ings, a tractor station, a petrol station, cottage industries, a dairy and poultry farms; (c) District town - This will have the whole district as its sphere of influence, providing all the services as in (b). It will also offer additional industrial production, admin-istration and transportation networks. It is designed to integrate the district with the rest of the region, per-forming complementary relations with regional industries and services. 2. Areas of High Agricultural Potential - Although these may be divided into two types depending on population densities, these areas will be directed toward large-scale farming settlements. These would range from 3,000 - 5,000 hectares of cultivated . land and employ up to 1,000 persons, with a total population approach-102 ing 3,000 persons. Each of these will have basic services re-quired for agricultural production, including educational, commer-cial, medical and technical services.. District town will provide the higher level of services and will cover areas of forty to eighty kilometres. These centres will provide such activities as medium-scale industries, economic organizations, grain and food storehouses. Since the existing settlement patterns may be impediments to effective rural devel-opment, these districts can be transformed into areas of higher productivity by implementing the proposed spatial hierarchy system. 3. Areas of Medium and Low Agricultural Potential Because these areas are sparsely populated and only marginally productive, there will be no direct economic intervention or spatial alteration in these areas. Even though the settlement systems are badly structured, they are not likely to be altered in the short-run. The priorities of the government do not make the transformation of these areas an economic possibility in the near future. Instead, concentration and larger groupings of people are being encouraged so that basic services can be provided as efficiently as possible. In Tanzania, there has been a noticeable concern with the reorganization and transformation of the national spatial system. The role of the integrated national and regional planning process is to create the optimal settlement structure for rural development and increased productivity. The concern with spatial planning is evident in Tanzania for both purposes to which it can be directed: "...to disperse the non-gene rative concomitants of economic growth in as equitable and efficient manner as possible and to mobilize the productive capacities of all regions by linking 103 them structurally and organizationally to the main stream of the national economy." (Logan, 1972: 230) The application of the growth centre strategy seems to ful f i l l both of these purposes; it has been modified and adapted to meet the local needs and specific situations in which it has been and is applied. GROWTH CENTRES IN GHANA Ghana has been a leader in the formulation of national development plans. Beginning with the Guggisberg Development Plan 1920 - 1930, Ghana has used successive national plans to try and promote the growth and development of the society. However, nowhere in these plans were the regional components taken into account, and development was concentrated into a few major cities and regions in the country. This was accentuated by the centralized planning machinery located in the Capital and largest city, Accra. Although regional administrative units existed for several years as part of the Central Government administrative machinery, there was never any real planning function at the regional level until 1966. This is when Regional Planning Committees were established; they were given responsibility to review the major sectoral planning programs that would have an impact on the region. When the Regional and District Councils were created in 1969, they were granted the specific function of regional planning. Thus regional planning by the Councils and Planning Committees will play a major role in the formulation of the country's next Five-Year Development Plan. Regional planning is therefore a new technique in the 104 overall planning process in Ghana. E a r l i e r , however, there had been a regional plan based on a resource and river basin devel-opment scheme. The 1956 Plan for the Volta Basin, including a power dam, a port and an industrial complex, dealt with the resettlement of 80, 000 persons displaced by the Volta Dam. Seven planning areas were created for the location of new service and growth centres. Each planning area was to have three types of settlements (Kudiabor, 1971): (a) Central Town - This would have a population of 10,000 and serve as the main centre of commerce, industry, banking, secondary education, district government administration, and agricultural productivity; (b) Service Centre Villages - The population of these villages would range between 5 and 8,000, and these would be centres of trade, education, postal service and local industry and handicrafts; (c) Satellite Villages - Six of these, with a total population of 4, 000 persons would 'surround the service centre villages, within a radius of 10 to 15 miles. They would serve as centres of intensive agriculture and agricultural processing activities. Although this scheme was enacted, agricultural and inf rastructural developments were not adequately implemented, and the creation of strategic growth centres failed to materialize. Kudiabor, (1971 : 4), gives the following reason for the unsuccessful plan; "The main reason for the failure was that the Volta Basin plan was prepared in isolation from the overall plan for growth centres across the country. Apart from the problem of reset-tling flood victims from the Volta Lake, the idea of growth centres and regional development planning was never a stated policy. " Regional planning can be used as an instrument for the social and structural transformation of Ghana, encompassing rural development, equitable infrastructure provision and integrated settlement patterns as well as effecting plan implementation at the 105 regional and local level. But in order to do this, the regional planning process must overcome some major obstacles. Included among them are: the lack of federal regional developmental policy and an effective regional planning machinery, the limited decentralization of central government authority, the lack of technical personnel, and the inadequate provision of guidelines dealing with industrial location, agriculture and urbanization. Furthermore, regional planning is handicapped by the existing inequalities in the provision of social services and infrastructure, and the existing patterns of population distribution. To overcome these problems, three main objectives for the next Five-Year Development Plan are aimed at regional devel-opment. These are (Kudiabor, 1971): (a) Coordination of national and regional development objectives; (b) Reduction in the existing regional and rural-urban disparities; (c) Creation of a satisfactory national urban development pat-tern. F r o m these objectives, certain regional development strategies have been suggested. These include: coordinating sectoral pro-grammes at the regional level; distributing social services and infrastructure facilities more equitably among the regions and among regional districts; and creating developmental centres in the regions to act as service centres for agricultural and other economic activities. Inherent in these strategies should be a concern with industrial location patterns "capable of raising pro-ductivity as well as stimulating rural development" (Darkoh, 1972 : 111). In essence, the prime concern is with an integrated spatial organization that will attempt to correct the structural imbalances 106 of development which currently exist. Reorganizing the Countryside. As Kudiabor (1971) points out, there are several reasons why a growth centre strategy should be adopted in this context. F i r s t , the current population d i s t r i -bution is too scattered to make any meaningful changes in the levels of living for the majority of the population without a structural reorganization. Second, an equitable distribution of social services and infrastructure (i. e. water and electricity supplies, educational and health facilities, etc.) is too costly and inefficient to provide without deliberately concentrating people into larger groupings. Third, economic development requires an urban environment. New centres equipped with basic services and facilities will promote increased agricultural productivity as well as attract new industrial activities. Finally, as an agent of social and economic change, growth centres will be the surest way of extending urban civilization to the rural areas. And, as Darkoh (1972 : 121) notes, "... a basic practical argument for the planned dispersion of industries into r u r a l areas through growth centres is that hidden resources of creativity and innovation might thereby be unearthed. " To put these considerations into a practical application, Kudiabor suggests a settlement hierarchy for Ghana, using the Northern Regions as an example. In his four-tiered structure, the major urban areas of Accra-Tema, Sekondi-Takoradi and Kumasi will continue as dominant centres of development at the national level. But within the Northern Regions, the other growth areas might assume the following structure: (a) Regional Growth Centre - The transportation links and 107 the functional activities of Tamale make this the logical regional centre. It is the reference for all agricultural activity (assembly, storage and shipping) and has some manufacturing activity. This is also the centre for banking and government administration, as well as such educational facilities as secondary, technical and agri-cultural institutes; District Growth Point - These would include the ten district administrative and market centres. They also serve as centres for education, health facilities, local handicrafts and postal services; they are the main foci for the exchange of ideas on development. They have direct communication and transformation links with Tamale; Local Service Centre Villages - These are essentially agricultural groupings that supply only the minimum of local needs. By using this type of settlement pattern when considering investments and programmes, a more rational and systematic ap-proach to development can be achieved. As Darkoh (1972 : 118) notes: "Ghana has too often embarked on investment policies that are widening rather than narrowing regional differences. . . this is because planners have ignored the spatial dimensions of their investment programs. " The increasing role of regional planning in the national development planning process will help to promote a more equitable distribution of development within the national structure. The growth centre strategy will provide valuable assistance in the reorganization of the countryside and in the spread of development within the regions. GROWTH CENTRES IN K E NYA It has been only recently that Kenya has formulated an integrated economic and physical planning approach to national development. But it has readily accepted the concept of spatial and functional national planning and has exerted a great deal of effort in trying to reorganize the settlement pattern in the country. Similar to both Tanzania and Ghana, Kenya recognized the inade-(b) (c) 108 quate spatial structure that was inherited from the colonial days. There had been a complete lack of spatial planning to promote economic and social development throughout the ru r a l areas. Obudho (1972) described the system as 'parasitic', where even the rural towns were oriented toward international export markets and were not benefitting the rural areas that they were supposed to serve. "It was this situation which prompted the adoption of the growth centre concept in Kenya. " (Taylor, 1972 : 152) There was a definite need to change the existing urbaniza-tion process to link the r u r a l and the urban areas. Concentration of growth and development in Nairobi and Mombasa became a serious concern to the politicians; there was a strong sentiment toward decentralization to smaller centres to promote a better distribution of development. What was required was a reorienta-tion of r u r a l centres to perform generative functions in the local areas. Additionally, it was hoped that the creation of attractive rural centres would slow the high migration rates from the ru r a l areas into the two largest centres. It was not until 1964 that any efforts were made toward comprehensive national and regional planning. During the 1967-1970 period, Physical Development Plans were prepared for six of the seven provinces in Kenya. These plans were concerned with the size and function of towns to meet the national and provincial requirements. It was in these plans that combined physical, social cultural and political aspects of development were first considered. A l l existing places were inventoried and the 'growth centres' (i.e. central places) were categorized into four levels; 10 9 (a) Urban centres - these arede signated to be the main commercial centres on the district level, serving about 120, OOOpersons. They are generally medium-sized towns which will have a minimum of 10,000 people by the year 2 000; (b) Rural centres - These should serve a rural population of at least 40,000 and should have at least 2,000 -5,000 residents by the year 2000; (c) Market centres - These small towns should have approximately 1, 000 persons in them by the turn of the century and should serve a rural population of at least 15, 000; (d) Local centres - These are the smallest of the designated centres and they will only have about 200 residents. They are expected to serve up to 5, 000 people. Although these are designated service centres, it is difficult to accurately predict the future growth and ultimate size of these places. However, these centres already exist and the plans are designed to encourage growth in these, areas according to this functional hierarchy. There are additionally eight other centres, in addition to Mombasa and Nairobi, which are elevated above the functional classification of Urban centres. These are major growth centres and are referred as Principal Towns. The Development Plan 1970-1974 was the first effort at integrating economic and physical planning. The key strategy of this plan was to divert as much of the available resources as possible toward r u r a l development and the complementary improve-ments in the r u r a l towns as well. Although Mombasa and Nairobi must continue to expand as the growth points of the nation, efforts should also be made in other directions. "Emphasis is given to decentralization of the population growth outside of Nairobi and Mombasa, the positive promo-tion of growth centres around the country, and orderly expan-sion of necessary social infrastructure to keep pace with the rise in population. " (Laurenti, 1972 : 10) 110 The central planning involved in achieving the goals of rural and spatial development call for coordinated programming of activities. Growth and infrastructure investments would only be channelled to designated centres. The government services were to be concentrated in the four-level growth centre hierarchy; these would serve as foci of trade, social services and communications to serve the ru r a l areas, alter the pattern of migration and pro-mote more equitable national development. "For these reasons, the growth centre strategy, already outlined in the Kenya Development Plan, is important for the provision of services to the rural areas themselves and to the absorption of potential urban migrants. " (Gerhart, 1972 : 15) Additionally, the building of infrastructure, labour and market facilities should enable a wider dispersion of industry throughout Kenya. Furthermore', it is considered of great importance to have local participation in the planning process. In analyzing the growth centre concept in Kenya, it is in-teresting to note that not all are in agreement with the policies, applied in the developmental process. Taylor (1974) thinks that 'small urban places ' would be more effective developmental units than the four-level growth centre hierarchy employed in the national plan. These 'small urban places', ranging in population from 800 to 5, 000, would provide many of the facilities and functions necessary to service the local areas. These would be able to concentrate services and distribute developmental benefits better than the other growth centres, especially if the important rural-urban linkages were improved. Since these are the inter-facebetween rural and urban sectors, it is here that innovations and services should be introduced to stimulate socio-economic I l l growth. However, he fails to provide an alternative functional hierarchy of urban places that could meet the demands that could not be met by the 'small urban places'. Laurenti (1972) argues against the decentralization policy of Kenya. He argues that Kenya is in an early stage of development and therefore should continue to direct most of its resources into the developed areas of Nairobi and Mombasa. This would be the best policy for the overall economic development of the country. Although there are justifiable reasons, p r i m a r i l y polit-ical and equity considerations, he states that "Kenya's stress on decentralization is coming too soon... the build-up of infrastructure in the designated growth centres may prove to be much less productive than expected, and certainly less productive than the allocation of resources to other development programs". (1972 : 34) This analysis, however, appears to be concentrating solely on the "efficiency" (Alonso, 1968) aspect of development without concern for the social, cultural and political considerations of a more balanced developmental approach. In spite of these claims, the Government of Kenya has continued these policies on the latest national development plan. In fact, the objectives and strategies outlined in the 1970-1974 Plan have been reiterated and expanded in the Development Plan  1974-1978. For a look at the considerations of r u r a l development and urban growth centre policy in Kenya, Appendix I describes the guide-lines to be used in the provision of infrastructure f a c i l -ities for the varying levels of functional centres. The growth centre concept appears to be fully incorporated into the developmental planning process in Kenya. The specific services and facilities which are to be included at each level of 112 the urban hierarchy provide a clear picture of the role growth centres (i. e. central places) play in the functional organization of the country. Although it is too early to determine the success of this strategy, it is being applied as a deliberate attempt to reorient the spatial structure of the country as well as to pro-mote regional and national development. ANALYSIS OF A FRICAN GROWTH CENTRES The examples presented above suggest a strong case for the use of modified growth centre concepts in A f r i c a . Each of these countries is attempting to stimulate development in a similar direction: reorganizing the spatial and functional structure of the national territory to promote rural development and to provide a more equitable distribution of services and facilities. Each country has adopted a growth centre strategy, based on central place concepts, as a means of achieving these objectives. But the different ideologies , resources and levels of development between these countries point to different needs and potentials; the. growth centres have been structured and adapted differently in each case to fit the particular situation. It appears that this 'central place -growth centre' concept is seen as durable and flexible, as well as capable of handling the programming needs of the developmental planning process. The understanding and application of the growth centre con-cept is most fully developed in Tanzania. It is used there on a case-specific basis; the functions and dispersion of the growth centres will depend on the type of area in which it is employed, the growth potential of the area, and the existing settlements 113 patterns. In this way, growth centres are employed to the fullest as flexible instruments of ordered change in the development and growth of the country. The growth centres are being used to transform the countryside into a more effective system which is capable of generating social, economic and cultural change. Kenya has adopted a slightly different approach: the exist-ing settlement pattern has been classified and categorized for the purpose of reorienting the functional basis of the ru r a l centres. A l l places were designated a spot in the four-level hierarchy so that all government programmes and investments will attempt to bring these centres up to the appropriate levels of services and facilities. If this can be achieved, then the ru r a l areas will benefit from these centres. This application of the strategy is more rigid as the functional levels of these centres are applied equally to all parts of the country. Whereas the aim of this ap-proach is to make the entire national space operate more efficient-ly, the sweeping generality of the growth centre programme may cause some inefficiencies in particular parts of the national system. The growth centre strategy has not been fully integrated into the planning process as yet in Ghana, and it is not fully developed as a means of achieving developmental goals. Problems which plague the regional planning process also limit the use of the growth centre strategy; policies are not sufficiently clear on the national and regional level to define the application of the strategy in the scheme of development. With time, however, the growth centre concept can play an important role in the reorgan- ization of the country to decrease regional disparities and achieve 114 national planning goals. It is important to point out that in the application of the African growth centre strategy, with its foundations in central place theory, it is very useful to have clearly defined roles for the various components of the spatial structure(s). Both Tanzania and Kenya have developed a spatial organization with specific spheres of influence, population size and service and activity functions, to be utilized by the growth centres. Some reference should also be made to the cr i t i c a l role that a system of good communication and transportation links can play in the develop-mental process. CONCLUSION Are 'growth centres' a viable strategy in the developmental planning process in Africa? Can they f u l f i l l the diverse needs of the African societies in the course of development? There has not been enough feedback from the limited practical application of the African growth centres to draw any definite conclusions. But based on the multiplicity of purposes and the different modifications that are applied in these situations, it is possible to make a calcu-lated risk and guess at the answers to these questions. Gersdorff (1971) offers a composite list of goals and object-ives of regional planning in A f r i c a . These were set by various governments with the advice of their planners; the objectives and goals are the following, in order of priority: 1. Involvement of the masses and also of local and regional officials in the planning and implementation process; 2. Better use of human, natural and financial resources in the various regions, including an increase in the regional 115 level of living and of productivity; 3. Creation of centres of attraction or growth poles for keeping people from migrating to the national capitals, for assembling those who are too scattered and for transferring growth impulses to the backward rural areas; 4. Provision of social and economic infrastructure for regions which have developmental potential; 5. Diversification of agricultural and industrial production and a better spatial distribution of industries; 6. Reduction of regional income differences by directing investments to less-developed regions which would otherwise have tended to go to areas with expected higher returns. It appears that the growth centre strategy is applicable in the achievement of a l l of these goals. Most of these notions have been presented in the examples of growth centre utilization in Africa. This concept would be acceptable, and indeed desirable, as a choice of strategy to pursue these goals. The fact that growth centres are applicable in all these cases would mean that only one strategy would have to be selected in the comprehensive planning process. This would greatly simplify both the planning process and the implementation aspect of the comprehensive deve lopment plan. Although it is impossible to weigh the success of these centres in terms of goal-achievement, there seems to be a good likelihood that the growth centre strategy will contribute much to the process of development in Afric a . 116 C H A P T E R V ZAMBIA: D E V E L O P M E N T PLANS AND GROWTH CENTRES " A constant preoccupation of my Government is the disparity in the standard of living between the rural masses and the comparatively limited urban and industrial sector. While this Plan will not redress the inherited imbalances be-tween the rural and the urban sectors, it does aim at pro-voking growth in b o t h . . . " (President D. K. Kaunda, Intro-duction to First National Development Plan, 1966 - 1970) INTRODUCTION "One Zambia - One Nation" is the national motto of the Republic of Zambia. Founded on 24 October, 1964, the Republic of Zambia occupies an important role in the hierarchy of Tropical Africa. A highly urbanized and relatively wealthy country by African standards, Zambia borders on the two worlds of Sub-Saharan Africa. Bordering on eight countries, this former Brit-ish colony stands between Black Africa and the mo re-developed, minority-ruled countries of southern Africa (see Map 3). It is not only a land of many internal diversities, but it is the focal point of the continuous conflict between White-ruled and Black Africa . In order to become "One Nation", Zambia must engage in a well-conceived and deliberate effort towards economic, social and political development. PHYSICAL, POLITICAL AND DEMOGRAPHIC F E A T U R E S OF ZAMBIA General Description . Zambia is a land-locked country in south-central Africa, occupying a territory of approximately 290,000 square miles. The maximum east-west distance is 700 miles while the distance from the southernmost border to the northern-most border is over 800 miles. The relief of Zambia consists mainly of rolling and flat plateaux, occasionally broken by isola-117 M A P 3 ZAMBIA IN AFRICA Source: Davies, D. H . Zambia in Maps. 1971 118 ted hills and rift valleys... The average altitude is 3,700 feet above mean sea level. It is served by two of Africa's major drainage systems, the Congo and the Zambezi. It borders on three lakes and has one large body of water, Lake Bangweula, entirely within its borders. Although Zambia is a politically non-aligned country, it is deeply affected by the internal politics of Africa. Shortly after Zambia (formerly Northern Rhodesia) was separated from the Federation of Rhodesia and Nyasaland, Southern Rhodesia proclaimed itself as an independent country. This Unilateral Declaration of Independence (U.D.I . ) , in November 1965, was the precipitating factor in the continuing controversy involving Rhodesia and its minority government. This affected Zambia in two ways; econom-ically, Zambia had been highly integrated into the economy of Rhodesia and was forced to consider new directions and orient-ations of its economy; politically, Zambia had to renounce the U . D . I , and shift its attitudes and allegiances from the south and towards the east and north. Additionally, as a strong-hold for subversive activities aimed at Rhodesia, the Portuguese colonies of Angola and Mozambique, and the South African colony of Namibia (formerly South West Africa), Zambia has been under intense political pressures from several different nations. National sovereignty and defense is a prime consideration of the Govern-ment, and as Davies (1971 : 10) notes: "At least in the short run, both economic and social considerations take second place to political imperatives. . . events since Rhodesia's U . D . I prove the paramountcy of political considerations in decision-making. " Dr. D. K. Kaunda has been President since independence 119 and also leader of the United National Independence Party (U.N. I. P.) which has controlled the National Assembly since 1964. In the 1968 elections, Kaunda was re-elected by a large margin, and the U . N . I .P. won 82 out of 105 Assembly seats. The opposition party, the African National Congress ( A . N . C ) , won the remain-ing seats with political strength centred mainly in the south-central and westernareas of the country. Unlike other African leaders, Kaunda has not forcibly imposed a one-party system in Zambia, hoping to achieve that condition through the democratic processes. But the relative upsurge of the A . N. C. , and the retention of the two-party system based primarily along tribal and ethnic lines, reveals the difficulty in trying to form a national unity and identity based on complete consensus. The country is divided administratively into eight provinces and forty-five districts, ten of which are urban districts (see Map 4). Nearly all of the administrative positions are now held by Zambians. The Provincial Development Committees and the Rural Development Committees are concerned primarily with the imple-mentation of the National Plan and the economic development of their respective areas. These committees are meant to integrate political and administrative functions as well as solicit more participation from the local areas (Tordoff, 1968). Socially, Zambia is a country of complexities and contrasts. There are over seventy tribal groups indigenous to the country. There are also at least nine major language groups and numerous local dialects, although English remains the official language. Additionally, there are Europeans and Asians (approximately 74, 460 and 7,790 respectively, according to the 1969 census) as well as 1 2 0 M A P 4 ZAMBIA: ADMINISTRATIVE DIVISIONS O MILES 125 I Lr—1-T-1—r1 1 O KILOMETRES 200 MB A L A M P O R O K O S O (KAWAMBWA \ KA SAM A..: N O. R T H E.-.R N BALOVALE j . ^ - N p..R.T..H....... VNOOLAa--^ '• / (RURAL) :::'6-:7.':-. i c o p p E"R N \ .. J ,• •' ••" ' „ - \ LUWINGU /••••• <s\ . •> .•• CHIN-SALlJ • - \ . \ ISOKA / M A N S A ',\SA MFYAV L U A Pi U _L_A ' \ V. \ SOLWEZI >'1 'KAOOMP.'O MPIKA V / • LUMDAZI _y i c • . VV.-'E S T E R N . - ^ < N , KASEMPA K A L ADO / : .MONGU . L t A L U l \ V/\E-S T E:R. .N > V. ^ — I SERENJE \ t ••'\ < — B E L T / - :' • CHIPATA/ V - : MKUSHI j E A S T E R N MANKOYA , ~ - : K A BWE ': a '•!"•. ' '. f PI ICAI \ *. /• • MUMBWA (RUR L) ' .  ' C E N T R/A'V y I PETAUKE "N SEMANGA 1 ) L.. LUSAKA •. / -I,/-,.../- --I/ ( R U R A;^FEIRA] ^ NAMWALA " '""•-^ X ' • l •MAZABUKA.-:"N"5^' \ . 7 ( v - ICHOMA^WEMDES^ \ J SESHEKE S O U T H ' E R/N M & f ' \ / t KALOMO '• •' ^ -*"*> N - — BOUNDARIES . _ Provincial Kurol and Urba.T District URBAN DISTRICTS I Chililabomfcwe 2. Chin go I a 3. Mufulira A. Kalulushi 5 Kitws 6 Luar.shya 7 Ndola 8. Kabwe 9 Lusaka 10. Livingsteae Source: Davies, D. H . Zambia in Maps. 1971 121 other Africans from neighbouring countries residing in Zambia. There is a wide diversity of education, skills, income and employ-ment. For example, in 1970 the average annual income of employees in all industries was K923 for Africans and K5, 156 for non-Africans (1 K = $1.40 U.S.); professional, technical, adminis-tation and managerial workers accounted for only 2. 6 per cent of the total jobs held by Africans and 36 percent of the total jobs held by non-Africans (Ministry of Finance , 1971 : 48-54). This is the assorted milieu that must be moulded together to form a single nation. Population Distribution. The 1969 census was the firs t complete census ever taken in Zambia. The population living in Zambia at that time was approximately 4, 056, 995 (Davies, 1971: 42). The population density for the country was about 13.9 per-sons per square mile, making it one of the least densely popu-lated areas in Tropical A f r i c a (see Table IVb, Chapter I). The population grew by 2.7 percent ^ per annum between 1963 and 1969, a total increase of over 17 per cent in just six years. The population is spread unevenly throughout the country-side. Even though the overall density is very low, there are pockets of concentration. The most notable one is along the "line-of^-rail" - the area bordering the Zambian Railway.* The ten *Note: This north-south railway runs from Livingstone to the copper mining area known as the Copperbelt. It is the Zambian exten-sion of the railway link between Rhodesia and Capetwon, South Africa; it was the prime link with manufacturing activities in Rhodesia as well as the access to import/export outlets in South Africa, Angola and Mozambique. This system became politically inoperable with U.D.I. 122 largest cities are located along the line - o f - r a i l , seven of which are.inthe Copperbelt Region (see Map 5). Approximately 40 per cent of the total Zambian population lives within 2 5 miles of the railway, and the density along this line goes as high as 500 persons per square mile. In the r u r a l areas outside of this linear concentra-tion, the average density is only 10 persons per square mile. Zambia is one of the most urbanized countries in A f r i c a , with 28 per cent of the 1969 population living in the main towns (see Table VI). Using the c r i t e r i a of 20, 000 or more for urban centres, the urban population is s t i l l 2 7 per cent of the national total. The total urban population increased from 747, 000 in 1963 to 1,186,000 in 1969, an absolute increase of 439,000; this is a rise of 60 per cent over six years or more than 8 per cent per annum. The r u r a l population increased by only 17 per cent over the same time period. Well over 90 per cent of the entire urban population are found in the main towns and in the three provinces along the l i n e - o f - r a i l (Simmance, 1972 :19). Lusaka, the capital and the largest city, grew a startling 11.6 per cent per annum between 1963 and 1969, a total increase of 93 per cent. Although the figures vary depending on the definition of the urban centre, Lusaka has almost doubled in size in less than seven years. A l l of the towns in the Copperbelt area grew at rates between 5 and 10 per cent per year over the same time period. The massive in-migration and high growth rates of these densely populated areas has led to high unemployment and sprawling shanty towns. The goal of achieving a unified society under these circum-stances poses several problems. The location of Zambia in 123 M A P 5 ZAMBIA: URBAN AREAS The Copperbelt CHILILABOMBWE RAILWAYS CHINGOLA' CHAMB KALULUSHI ! BALOVALEI I t i S / THE TOWNS O MILES 125 I ' • ' • ' l ' 1 0 KILOMETRES 200 iERENOE KASAMA > 0ISOKA ' * > . \ CHIPATAf V. KALABO. MONGU \ V •N v. • / K A B W E LIVi ' i N G S T O N E L U S A K A I J^ AZABUKA /^^Q—^KAFUE' OMONZE / i °Tf>* 0%** r" s Q 5O00 20.000 60.000 100,000 200,000 .Circles proportional to population • (Centres n! A.0C0 a ^ d undo.-. Source: Davies, D. H. Zambia in Maps. 1971 124 T A B L E VI ZAMBIA: POPULATION OF MAIN TOWNS (»000) Town Population 1969 Census (a) Lusaka 262.2 Kitwe 199.8 Ndola 159.9. Mufulira 107.8 Chingola 103.3 Luanshya 96.3 Kabwe 67.9 Livingstone 43.3 Chililabombwe 44.9 Kalulushi 32.3 Chipata 13.4 Choma 11.9 Mongu 10.1 Kasama 8.9 Mazabuka 6.3 Mans a 9.0 Mbala 5.3 Monze 3.8 T O T A L 1,186.4 Source: Ministry of Finance Economic Report 1971. Lusaka, 1972 12 5 South-central A f r i c a critically affects its prospects for political stability and prosperity. The diverse cultural make-up of the society and the widely dispersed population limit the ability of the Government to effectively integrate society with a common national identity. The linear concentration of urban areas creates an im-balance between the rural and the urban areas, causing a socially and economically destabilizing migration to the urban areas. It is up to those involved in the planning process to consider these factors when development plans are prepared. T H E ECONOMY OF ZAMBIA General Description. Zambia has been endowed with ample natural resources which provide a solid economic foundation for development. Before and after independence, valuable mineral resources have played a major role in the Zambian economy. Zambia has been able to exploit these resources successfully to achieve the second highest GNP per capita in Trop i c a l A f r i c a (see Table II, Chapter I). Also endowed with a favourable climate, good water resources and large amounts of fertile land, Zambia has a good potential for developing a profitable agricultural sector. While the economy is far from fully developed, Zambia "unlike some other new African states, possesses many of the essential material resources for self-advancement" (Davies, 1971 : 120). Copper mining and processing is the backbone of the Zambian economy. The Government of Zambia, through a major policy declaration in 1968, acquired 51 per cent of the equity of the copper mining companies through its Industrial Development Corp-oration (I. N. D. E. C. O.). The wealthy copper mines of the 126 Copperbelt Region provide more than half of the total annual government revenue. The mining and quarrying sector of the economy provides the largest percentage of sectoral contribution to the G. D. P. (see Table VII). Copper sales have also provided well over 90 per cent of the export earnings of Zambia since 1964. (Ministry of Finance, 1971). Because of the revenues from copper exports, Zambia has enjoyed a net export surplus each year since 1964. However, the balance of payments surplus and the foreign reserves fluctuate considerably depending on the world copper prices and the export demands. The main exports beside copper include zinc, lead, cobalt, tobacco and maize; the main imports include machinery and transportation equipment, manufactured goods, mineral fuels, food and chemicals (Ministry of Finance, 1971 : 71). As noted earlier, this is a typical pattern for most African economies -a few primary resources are exported in exchange for capital and manufactured goods. F o r Zambia, however, the valuable copper fields have provided a more than adequate export item which enables the country to have a net surplus in the balance of trade. Although over 70 per cent of the population lives in the rural areas, agriculture accounts for less than 10 per cent of the GNP. The majority of the ru r a l population are engaged in small-scale cash crop farming and subsistence agriculture. In 1969, less than 10 per cent of the total population was engaged in the wage employment sector. This represented only one-third of the total labour force of approximately 900, 000. In the same year, approx-imately 74 per cent of all employed persons were in the Central and Copperbelt provinces, with another 10 per cent in Southern 127 T A B L E VII ZAMBIA: GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT BY SECTOR A T CURRENT PRICES, 1964 AND 1969 1964 1969 GDP GDP (factor cost) (factor cost) K* million per cent K* million per cent Agriculture, forestry, fishing 53.3 11.5 73.7 7. 5 Mining and Quarrying 220. 8 47.5 397.6 40. 6 Manufacturing 28. 2 6.1 82. 2 8.4 Construction 20.0 4.3 66.9 6.8 Trade 45. 8 9.9 96.5 9.9 Transport and Communications 20.6 4.4 51.0 5.2 Other Services 76.2 16.4 211.0 21.6 TOTAL. 464.9 100.0 978.9 100.0 *1K (Kwacha) = $1.40 (U.S.) or 50np. (U.K. ) Source: Young, Alistair . Industrial Diversification in Zambia. 1973. 128 province. The five rural provinces had only 16 per cent of the total persons employed in Zambia (Simmance, 1972 : 21). Constraints on the Economy. Although fairly prosperous in terms of other African countries, there are several constraints which affect the economic development of Zambia. Even with its favourable natural resources, Zambia must take positive steps to remove these constraints if it is to develop its economy fully. Perhaps the prime indicator of this situation is that the ru r a l and agricultural development lags far behind the other sectors of the economy, and fails to make Zambia self-sufficient in food production. As Elliott (1971 : 9) states: "Though it is easy to exaggerate the suitability of the Zambian climate and conditions for intensive agriculture, the fact that over 20 per cent of Zambia's food is imported from abroad owed less to the natural environment of agriculture than to ineffective agricultural policies before and after independence. The structural inefficiency of this sector is reflected in its inability to provide for a large and rapidly growing (home) market, its over-supply of labour to the urban area, and its inability to generate productive assets to ensure a satisfactory rate of growth and a flexible pattern of agricultural output. " Although the structural reformation and development of the ru r a l areas is a prime concern to the Zambian Government, it is not the only constraint to economic development. Briefly, some other constraints to development in Zambia include the following factors (Elliott, 1971): -ineffectual and often counter-productive labour unions; -imbalances in the income distribution between Africans and non- Africans; -excessive increases in the wage rates, leading to higher production costs and the use of labour-saving technologies; -increased demands and expectations by citizens which can not be realistically met; -inadequate domestic savings and investments coupled with increased demand for the consumption of goods and service s; -incomplete transportation and communication infrastructure; 129 -undeveloped and spatially imbalanced market areas; -excessively high rates of inflation in the economy. Many of these constraints are interrelated; i . e. "the economic development is definitely hindered by a market constraint arising chiefly from a badly developed system of transport and communications. . . " (Fortmann in Elliott, 1971 ; 195) Richard Jolly (in Elliott, 1971), discusses the c r i t i c a l problem of shortages in skilled and educated labour, labeling this as the major constraint to expansion in Zambia after independence. Young (1973 : 140) recognizes this constraint, but cites the following factors as the main inhibitors to manufacturing and industrial growth: "...the very slow growth of the supply of agricultural raw materials; the dislocation caused by the attempt to switch trading routes through Dar es Salaam (following U.D.I. ); the rapid rate of growth in wages; the change from capital surplus to capital shortage around 1970; and the apparent lack of indigenous enterprise. " Most African countries face severe economic constraints to development and Zambia is no exception. However, the compara-tively high level of development mixed with the gross regional inequalities between rur a l and urban areas, and the increased expectations of the population, make economic development a pressing issue. Additionally" few countries are blessed with the substantial development resources that are provided by Zam-bia's copper revenues. It is not surprising that increasing de-mands are put upon the government to spread this wealth through-out the countryside. FIRST NATIONAL D E V E L O P M E N T PLAN, 1966- 1970 Published in July 1966, this was the first independent 130 attempt by the Government of Zambia to regulate and coordinate the process of national development. Recognizing the existing con-straints to economic and social development, and the relatively short planning time period, the authors attempted to propose a set of goals and objectives which could be achieved. Ambitious, but not overly optimistic, this plan was to guide all activities during the plan period, making its implementation and success the responsibility of all citizens. Basic Goals and Objectives. The basic consideration of the Plan was: "an attempt to mobilize available resources and favourable factors, in order to eliminate the obstacles to social and economic development in Zambia, and thus establish the con-ditions for dynamic and sustained growth of the economy. " (1966 : 1). The favourable factors included: a stable government, a substan-tial source of revenue (copper), a considerable agricultural poten-tial, a basic transportation network, and a willing population. The obstacles included: a limited industrial base, an inadequate education system, strategic common services located in Rhodesia, politically inoperable trade relationships, and, above all, the lack of trained manpower. The extreme form of this inherited "dual economy" determined the orientation of the plan; that is, re-dressing the imbalance between the rural and the urban sectors. This imbalance was aggrevated by the concentration of economic activities, and social and inf rastructural investments along the l i n e - o f - r a i l . In order to integrate the entire society into a monetary exchange economy, the Plan aimed at laying "a foundation of radical structural changes required to transform the 1 3 1 rural areas into productive agents" (1966 : 2). This was to be accomplished by diverting as many resources as possible to the rur a l areas and to allocate investments to favor the le s s-developed regions. This led to a regional orientation of the Plan determined by three considerations: Allocating investments to reduce rural/urban imbalances; bringing in the direct participation of Provincial and District Development Committees, and giving the population within each province an identifiable administrative and political programme. The development of the ru r a l provinces and districts is a long-term process; it was the aim of the Plan to establish a struc-tural foundation for this growth by: improving communications be-tween and within the provinces and the districts, locating new industrial and agricultural projects within these areas, accelerat-ing training and education, and making available credit and in-vestment funds. The Plan was to be the firs t step in the rever-sal of past trends aimed at a diversified economy and the econ-omic and social developmert of the ru r a l areas. The eight main objectives of the Plan were listed as follows: to diversify the economy and to satisfy a greater prop-ortion of domestic demand through domestic production; to increase employment by 100,000 jobs; to maintain reasonable price stabil-ity; to raise the general levels of education and develop a wide range of skills in the population; to increase monetary output per head to K200 in 1970; to minimize the inherited economic imbal-ance between urban and r u r a l sectors; to provide more and better living accommodations and raise the general level of social wel-fare; and to develop new transport, communications and other 132 economic infrastructure (1966 : 5). Included in these objectives were specific targets to be achieved by 1970 for such factors as: population, GDP, level of consumption, level of exports, etc. Productive investment according to planned programmes was outlined according to various sectors. Planning Process. There was a maximum effort to incorp-orate regional considerations into the F i r s t National Development Plan (F.N. D.P. ). Although data resources were lacking in many areas, as is typical with African countries, the existing inform-ation was used in the first stage of the planning process. During this stage, the Office of National Development and Planning (O. N. D. P. ) coordinated two simultaneous activities. Each federal ministry submitted a schedule of planned programmes and input requirements for the plan period. Concurrently, the provincial authorities submitted proposals for needed regional programmes. The O. N. D. P. interpreted government decisions into policy pro-posals and estimated projections for National Accounts to 1970. At the end of this stage, all of these were compared and anal-yzed by the O. N. D. P. prior to governmental approval.. During the second stage, the ministries' programmes were to be reviewed in light of governmental policies and the estimated financial resources during the four years of the Plan. A first year budget was drawn up and approved, setting the example for the yearly review procedure envisaged in the Plan. The first Plan was then ' prepared with strict attention to the regional break-down and distribution of capital investment, correlating exactly with the national programmes for each major sector. The region-133 al investment programmes were to provide structural transformation of the regions, and to increase the regional productivity, depend-ing on the regional absorptive capacity and total resource balance of the country. The execution of the Plan was to be carried out under the control of the National Development Committee. This committee was to review quarterly reports from O, N . D . P. , the Ministry of Finance, the Central Statistical Office ( C . S . O . ) , the individual ministries and the Provincial Development Committees. The annual review and the annual budget were designed to be flexible and subject to modification each year. Additionally, this process was adopted to ensure efficient utilization of investment funds and a constant review of the execution machinery of the planning process. This execution process was supposed to "conduct an accurate and continuous evaluation of the effect of the capital investment alloca-ted to individual programmes and projects" (1966 : 17). The role of the C . S . O . was to be expanded to incorporate priorities of investment. One of the indirect effects of the success-ful implementation of the Plan should have been an improvement in the quantity as well as quality of the country's economic data. As noted in the Plan, there should be "more direct involvement of the C . S . O . into the country's economic planning. . . " (1966 : 18). The execution of most of the ministries' programmes and projects were to be carried out on the regional level. To facil-itate this aspect of the Plan, "Regional Programmes" for each province were prepared. Although these programmes were gener-ally drawn up as a series of planned investments by the 134 individual ministries, much of the implementation of these projects was to be carried out by the provincial and local authorities. In this manner, the physical control of execution was decentral-ized from the central government: "methods of empirical assessment of projects are necessary as a control of expenditure reporting - these can only be carried out in the field and coordinated at the provincial level. (1966 : 18). The Provincial Development Committees were supposed to coordinat all programmes at the provincial as well as urban and local authorities so that the overall development effort was given max-imum effectiveness. Results of the Plan . In terms of achievement of the goals established in the F. N. D. P. , the available results indicate a fair measure of success. While the quantifiable results are weighed against specific targets in the Plan, the indirect success or failur of the Plan is more difficult to assess. A brief look at the re-sults associated with the F.N.D.P. "...the most ambitious in independent A f r i c a " (Davies, 1971 : 16), reveals some positive advances in the society. 1. Gross Domestic Product increased in real terms by an average of 13 per cent per annum between 1964 and 1970, surpassing the ambitious target of eleven per cent per annum. Money output per head rose to K280 by 1970, well ahead of the planned schedule (Jolly, 1970); 2. Many new industries were established, particularly in the urban sector, and the 20 per cent per annum increase in manufacturing output exceeded the planned rate of growth of 16 per cent per annum; 3. By mid-1970, wage-earning employment had increased by on-third in five years, adding 55- 65,000 new jobs. The planned target of 100, 000 was not accomplished primarily as a result of a slower growth in real output and the very rapid expansion of real and money wages; 135 4. Prices rose by 5 per cent per annum over the period of the Plan, which was not excessively high when compared to other countries, but higher than expected. This resulted mainly from 'cost-push' factors, the rapid increase in wages and the rise in import prices; 5. Education enrollment was impressive for all levels of the planned targets: primary school enrollment achieved 100% success, secondary achieved 88% success, and university achieved 74% success; 6. C i v i l servant housing increased rapidly over the plan period and the low-cost housing units increased by 23,000 units. However, the housing backlog remained high at about 100, 000 units. Health facilities increased by nearly 50 per cent between 1964 and 1970; 7. Transportation and communications expanded rapidly, parti-cularly in view of the difficult situation imposed by U.D.I, and the complete reorientation of trade routes; 8. The biggest shortcoming of the F.N. D. P. was in its failure to reduce the imbalances between the r u r a l and the urban areas. In spite of large-scale efforts, the gap actually widened. There was a 50 per cent rise in real incomes of urban workers accompanied by a substantial rise in the prices of urban goods. In contrast, the real income in the ru r a l areas rose by only 4 per cent; "this made the ru r a l worker only half as well off in relation to the urban worker as he was in 1964" (Simmance, 1972 : 6-7). The results of these changes in the economy during the course of the F.N.D.P. had far-reaching effects.. While copper prices rose and the copper industry contributed a larger share of the GDP than expected, the agriculture sector declined between 1966 and 1970, constituting only 7. 0 per cent of the GDP in 1970 (Summance, 1972). Instead of becoming more diversified and self-sufficient, the f a i l -ure of the agricultural sector forced food imports to double between 1964 and 1969. In response to the comparative failure of the ru r a l economy, the great expansion of economic infrastructure and investment along the line - of - r a i l , and the rapid increase in urban wages, this was a period of large-scale migration into the urban areas. This 136 migration accounted for a growth of urban population at a rate greater than 8 per cent per annum between 1964 and 1969. The Government had no official price policy or urbanization policy, and the high migration rates have reflected the lack of these consid-erations. Additionally, unemployment and the provision of housing and social services has not been able to keep pace with popula-tion growth in the cities. The comparable employment opportunities and wage rates in the rural areas have not served as attractive alternatives to keep people from migrating to the urban areas. One of the main considerations arising from this situation is the problem of unemployed youth. With approximately 53 per cent of the 1969 population in the age group of 0 - 19 years, the limited opportunities in the rural areas ' will cause an increased migration to the urban areas by these young people. Even though 82 per cent of the capital expenditure during the plan period was concentrated i n the line-of-rail provinces, over 50,000 young people per year are leaving school seeking jobs in which many cases do not exist (Simmance, 1972). The manifestation of this greater gap between the rural and the urban sectors is not surprising. It' is a complex and deeply ingrained phenomenon that is difficult to tackle and very unpre-dictable. It will take some coordinated efforts and a long time to resolve, but as Elliott (1971 : 9) puts it: "it is almost certainly true that no country in Africa faces such a contrast between an urban industrial sector that is growing and developing very rapidly and a semi-stagnant rural economy which seems to defy all attempts at restructuring it in the process of growth. " 137 Analysis of the F i r s t National Development Plan. In some respects the planning process and the F.N.D.P. were successful endeavors. It was an ambitious plan that embodied many well-conceived notions of planning and development; it was also success-ful in achieving many of its planned targets. But the attainment of the targets may not accurately reflect the role of the Plan -as Jolly (1971 : 215) mentioned: "In spite of its apparent success, it must be admitted that much of the coincidence between Plan and achievement is in spite of the Plan rather than because of it. " This conclusion was based upon the indicative rather than mandatory approach of the Plan; instead of being in the hands of the planning authorities, the actual control of the Plan was maintained through the annual budget and the unexpectedly high level of copper earnings. In this sense, both Gersdorff (1971) and Simmance (1972) agree that the relative successes in the Plan occurred despite some short-comings in the process. Gersdorff noted that the regional programmes were based primarily on the provincial break-down of approved ministries' programmes - not on the coordinated view of provincial needs. Furthermore, he points out, the region-al programmes contained undefined and vague investment allocations (e.g. "development roads"). Certain gaps in these programmes could only be fulfilled within the provincial context, and not necessarily as a part of any central ministries' programmes. He pointed out the need for a more coordinated and comprehensive approach to regional planning. Simmance also expresses these opinions based on the actual functioning of the planning process. Although strong efforts were 138 made to impart a "regional flavour" to the Plan and its imple-mentation machinery, Simmance notes that this framework "existed in theory only" (1972 : 10). That is, most of the planning posts in the provinces were left unoccupied due to manpower shortages and the reluctance of central planning staff to move to the rur a l areas. Jolly (1971) also notes that the O. N. D. P. had little effect on the Plan after 1968 and the: "continuing minor adjustments which should have been made to the Plan were rarely undertaken; the Plan was never 'rolled forward' as intended" (1971 : 215). Although the authors of the Plan considered it "structural rather than sectoral", in many ways it was not an effective plan because it lacked structural concerns. There was little awareness or concern about the impact of various programmes and projects on the rural and urban areas. That is, the Plan did not reflect the spatial ramifications and the rural-urban interrelationships associated with the planned investment and programme allocations. The spatial nature and the potentially disruptive effects of govern-ment projects were not adequately considered. This demonstrates the lack of comprehensiveness and regional (spatial) considerations of the planning process. David Siddle (1970) argues that the major rur a l development schemes associated with the Plan demonstrated this lack of spatial awareness. These schemes, including settlement projects, state ranches, state dairies and tractor mechanization units, were con-sidered by the F. N. D. P. to be completely productive projects leading to rural development. Because of this, most of the funds for rural development were channelled into 80 or so of these 139 major schemes. Siddle suggests that the success ratio of these schemes is very minimal. This conclusion is based upon the limited zone of influence associated with these projects and the small numbers of persons actually involved in each scheme. The mini-mal developmental diffusion of these projects is outweighed by the fact that they are "inefficient, as well as socially and politically damaging" (1970 : 277). A better understanding of spatial analysis and a more comprehensive planning process might lead to more successful rural development schemes. Furthermore, there was no urbanization policy mentioned or alluded to in the Plan. The growing problems of urbanization in Af r i c a necessitate that an urban strategy should be incorporated into the developmental plans. This is particularly true for Zambia with its heavily urbanized areas and high rural-to-urban migration rates. The Plan did not posit any strategy for developing an or-dered urban hierarchy; nor was there any policy designed to stem the tide of rur a l migrants. Nowhere in the Plan was there any consideration given to the actual roles that the various levels of urban areas could play in the developmental process. Even without actually incorporating these types of policies directly in the Plan, the consideration of them could have contri-buted to the success of the Plan. The current trends of urban growth could have been utilized to choose project sites more effectively. Instead, the programmes aimed at developing the rural areas have failed to make them more attractive to the rur a l population; the Plan has only succeeded in exacerbating the problem and increasing rural-to-urban migration. Some debate exists within Zambia whether developmental efforts should be con-140 centrated in the high potential l i n e - o f - r a i l provinces or dispersed more equitably throughout the rural areas. President Kaunda, however, believes in a policy of "Zambian Humanism" and the continued efforts to develop the rural areas. It is important, then, to consider the factors of regional imbalances and urbaniza-tion in order to achieve this objective. The F i r s t National Development Plan provides an interesting example of the complex process of developmental planning. This Plan incorporates many of the characteristics associated with the process framework presented in Chapter III. It also demonstrates some of the weaknesses associated with many other African plan-ning endeavors. In many ways, the Plan was executed satisfact-orily in terms of certain target achievements. On the other hand, the Plan became a static and almost superfluous document during the later stages of the plan period, and inadvertently aided in the growth of a new set of developmental constraints. Even though the Plan may have helped to lay a foundation for restructuring the society, the objectives of the Plan were pursued in an am-biguous and disjointed fashion. Elliott (1971 : 297) cites the actual lack of resolve demonstrated by the Plan to promote , r u r a l devel-raent: "...the flow of resources to the rural sector actually fell in 1969 and it is a strange commentary on government priorities that one of the biggest cut-backs in budgetary allocations that year f e l l on the Ministry of Rural Development. This raises the question of the official determination to revolutionize rural l i f e . " KASAMA: E X A M P L E OF A RURAL GROWTH C E N T R E One of the major deficiencies in the F.N.D.P. was the lack of an overall developmental strategy. Despite the attention given 141 to rural development, actual investment and programme allocations were concentrated in the l i n e - o f - r a i l provinces, i.e. the urban areas. The policy of rural development was not based upon an overall planning strategy that was designed to redress the imbal-ances between the rural and the urban sectors. The result was an uncoordinated planning effort: the planned objective of rural development was superseded by an implementation of the Plan favouring the urban areas. Feasibility of a Growth Strategy. As discussed in the pre-ceding Chapter, other African countries have adopted a central place concept of growth centres to promote regional growth and to coordinate the spatial development of the country. It seems reasonable that this strategy might also be utilized in Zambia to achieve similar goals. The concern of the Government with "Zambian Humanism", based on the political, social, and economic development of the r u r a l areas, can not be realized unless a specific strategy is designed to accomplish these ends. Furthermore, a growth centre strategy appears to be an effective means to resolving some of the constraints to Zambian development. These centres can serve as foci for coordinated social and physical infrastructure investments, social welfare programmes, ^ e-ducation and training facilities, monetary exchange markets, transportation and communication networks, etc. These can also serve as centres of attraction which help to decrease the rural migration into the l i n e - o f - r a i l area. The process of transmitting social and institutional changes necessary for modern-ization of the society could be facilitated in these centres. They can also disseminate information, technology, and innovations 1 4 2 to the surrounding rural areas to further the cause of agricul-tural development. The careful enactment, of a 'growth centre' strategy can serve to integrate the countryside in an organized spatial and functional hierarchy. In order to implement this strategy, there must be an increase in the role of planning at the provincial and district levels. The lack of accurate data, especially for the rural areas, necessitates an improved knowledge about regions and rur a l centres. Provincial plans should be prepared based upon this information which would identify the existing services, intraprovincial linkages and the growth points of the region. In the F„ N. D. P. there were no separate regional plans, and regional projects of one ministry were often implemented without regard for the programmes of other ministries, even though they might have had either comple-mentary or contradictory purposes. Through a regional plan, the locational and functional interrelationships of all developmental projects in the districts and the provinces may be coordinated. The role of each ru r a l centre will be assigned to enhance the overall development of these rural areas. The identification and utilization of rural growth centres may be a feasible approach to improve the effectiveness of rur a l development. Over K60 million in capital investment funds were spent on rural development during the period of the F.N.D.P., yet this investment "has not succeeded in significantly increasing either r u r a l production or the amenities of r u r a l l i f e " (Simmance, 1972 : 11). There seems to be some evidence that a 'growth centre' strategy may be at least as effective as the current method of investing in rural development. Indeed, it may produce tangible returns to 143 future capital investment projects. As Siddle (1970 : 277) con-cludes in his analysis of Zambian rural development: "Diffusion theory and practical economics both suggest that rural planning should concentrate on growth from development nodes... planned according to a rational hierarchy so that each would provide the range of goods, services and training appropriate to its order of importance in the whole system of ru r a l centres. " Kasama. Kasama is the district headquarters of the Kasama district and the administrative centre of the Northern Province (see Map 5). It lies in the plateau country of north-eastern Zambia and is within the drainage system of the Cham-beshi basin and the larger Congo River system. The district is in an area of medium density while Kasama itself has an urban density greater than 110 persons per square mile. The main staple crop of the subsistence farmers in the district is cassava, and there is some commercial production of tobacco, vegetables and fruits in addition to beef cattle and poultry. The majority of the population are Bemba; Dr. Kaunda is a Bemba from the Northern Province. It is not surprising the political affiliation of the province is almost unanimously U.N.I. P. The population of the province in both 1963 and 1969 is shown below in Table VIII. The Northern Province was the most populated of all the provinces in 1963; by 1969, it was barely the third largest. With the exception of two districts, the popu-lation declined in each district during the first years of indepen-dence. The only other province to experience a population decline over the same time period was the adjacent Luapula Province. In both of these provinces, population is leaving the rural areas for the urban concentrations along the l i n e - o f - r a i l . These two 144 T A B L E VIII ZAMBIA: POPULATION OF T H E NORTHERN PROVINCE AND DISTRICTS ('000) District June 1963 Census August 1969 Census % Change over 1963 Census Chinsali 71 57 -19.7 Isuka 82 78 -4.9 Kasama 114 108 -5.3 Luwingu 81 78 -3.7 Mbala 91 94 +3. 3 Mpika 60 58 -3.3 Mporokoso 65 68 +4.6 Total (Province) 564 541 -4.1 Source: Ministry of Finance. Economic Report 1971, Lusaka 1972 145 provinces provide the largest proportion of migrant labour to the mines in the Copperbelt region. The population of Kasama grew from 6, 700 in 1963 to 8, 900 in 1969, an increase of one-third. This is notable in light of the decreasing population in its district as well as in the province. It must exert some attractive features which have contributed to its unplanned growth. As an administrative centre, it has exper-ienced growth as the Government has launched a decentralization programme to increase the participation of the rural citizens. These administratives services would include police, courts and a post office. Other types of development facilities in Kasama include: banks, marketing boards, a hospital, primary and secondary schools, a teacher training college, petrol filling stations, and a regional 'bus service. Physical infrastructure includes both a treated township water supply and an electricity supply service. As of 1969, there was at least two manufacturing firms special-izing in food processing, beverages and tobacco. Kasama repre-sents an important transportation node. Five different roads pass through Kasama making it the hub of road transportation in the Northern Province. Kasama is also serviced by the fourth largest airport in Zambia, and it has regular flights to the Copperbelt region, Mansa in the east, and Mbala and Kasaba Bay in the north. These represent vital transportation and com-munication links for the province and the country. According to the F . N . D . P . "Regional Programme" for the Northern Province, several capital investment and productive 146 projects were to be centred in and around Kasama. This list of activities includes: -an expansion of the Educational Teacher Traing College; -the planting of 430 acres in the local timber plantation; -a scheme to train pit sawyers for the district; -a rol ler -mil l for agricultural processing; -a medium-size power project to increase electricity supplies; -the completion of the government hospital, -the expansion of the educational facilities. Although not specifically stated in the F . N . D . P . , the Kasama area was the focus of several major rural schemes, including a state dairy, a tractor mechanization unit, and a farm settlement scheme. The district was also the site of twenty-five Community Development Projects between 1964 and 1969, mainly for self-help building and irrigation projects. In addition, an artisans' workshop sponsored by Rucom (a subsidiary of I. N. D. E . C . O.) was established in Kasama. Other possibilities mentioned in the F . N . D . P . included an oil refinery and a timber sales depot and treatment plant, but more specific information about these projects was not available. The most extensive capital investments in the Northern Province were to be from the Ministry of Transportation and Works. Over fifty per cent of total planned capital investment over this plan period was to increase the transportation and communication infrastructure of the province, although it also included such utilities as water, electricity and sewerage. Much of it was to be spent on improving the highway systems oriented toward Tanzania. Perhaps the single most important development affecting Kasama is the new Tan Zam Railway. This major project, begun in 1970 after years of debate and controversy, will create a direct rail link from the Copperbelt region of Zambia to the port of Dar es Salaam in Tanzania. T h i s is the vital link needed by 147 Zambia to completely sever its economic links with southern Africa. Financed and built by the Mainland Chinese, this system will benefit the economies of both countries. This railway will pass directly through Kasama - this should focus great attention on the town. Because of this new link, Kasama will have considerable potential as a collection and storage depot, a maintenance and repair centre, a regional dis-tribution centre, and an industrial and manufacturing centre. Both Zambia and Kasama can gain: "from the opening up of the northern districts to modern transport lines. No longer will these areas be peripheral but will be districts through which zones of considerable economic activity are connected." (Griffiths, 1968 : 89) Kasama as a Growth Centre . The development of the Northern Province was not a coordinated effort during the F . N . D . P . period. In order to stimulate the planned growth and development of this region, measures should be taken to reorganize the area into an effective and efficient spatial system. As Siddle (1970 : 277) notes, "The functions of local planning teams would largely be to mould and shape existing patterns and hierarchies, rather than to create new structures." Kasama is a logical choice as the core of this regional hierarchy. Kasama is the largest centre in the province and is cent-rally located in the largest district of the province. In terms of the rest of the province, it has the most administrative func-tions, the most complete inf rastructural system, the greatest transportation and communication links, the largest industrial base, and the greatest number of developmental investment and programmes in its immediate vicinity. It provides the most services and has 148 the greatest diffusionary capacity of any centre in the province. In terms of potential activity, the existing infrastructure, the" Tan Zam Railway, and the concentration of population in the area make this the most suitable location for industrial and marketing activities. Kasama seems to be a capable choice as the primary rural growth centre for the Northern Province. As a means of testing this notion, Kasama can be com-pared with the proposed growth centre hierarchy established in Kenya Development Plan 1974 - 1978 (see Chapter IV). The high-est level in that four-tiered growth centre system was the Urban Centre. This type of centre is supposed to have a minimum of 10,000 people and service a population of 120,000 persons. The levels of services to be provided by this type of centre are listed in Appendix 1. Kasama already performs many of the ser-vices of the Urban Centre as well as several of those associated with the Principal Towns, considered to be a higher order than rural growth centres. Although Kasama is developing in an unplanned fashion, it can be made into a more productive and efficient centre for re-gional development. Through a well-conceived growth centre strat-egy and carefully planned investments, Kasama can be moulded into a major rural growth centre. By creating a planned system of rural centres with definite zones of influence and service functions, rural development in the Northern Province can be greatly im-proved. The creation of attractive centres with urban amenities and services should help stabilize the population a decrease the out-migration from the region. Kasama, as the focus of industry, education, health facilities, agricultural information services, 149 marketing and cultural change, will have a district, provincial and national orientation. As a major rural growth centre, Kasama can be instrumental in the development of the province and the country. CONCLUSION In this chapter, the author has attempted to summarize the planning process and a growth centre strategy for Zambia. The example of Kasama is a limited attempt at the application of this strategy. It should serve to illustrate the type of comprehen-sive and coordinated planning process necessary to make this an effective approach towards achieving developmental goals. The establishment of a rural growth centre (i. e. functional place) hierarchy appears to be a viable strategy in the Zambian case. Not only can this facilitate more effective programmes aimed at rural development but it can also lead to a more coordinated and efficient development of the country as a whole. This strategy can be used to "redress the imbalance be-tween the rural and urban sectors" by mobilizing and organizing the available resources and diminishing the obstacles to social and economic development. Inherent in this strategy are policies de-signed to deal with the efficient allocation of productive investments and urbanization. If this type of analysis applied to all of the rural regions, a national hierarchy of service centres and econom-ic activities could be established to direct the development of the society. This could play a vital role in the comprehensive plan-ning process necessary to attain the developmental objectives of the Government of Zambia. 150 C H A P T E R VI CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS INTRODUCTION Many of the issues of development planning in Africa have discussed in the preceding chapters. The over-riding con-clusion that can be drawn is that development in Africa is a complex problem based on the high degree of inte r- relationships among social, political and economic factors. Developmental planning and strategies must be applied in a comprehensive sense taking all of these factors into account. In attempting to examine the hypotheses, these considerations as well as the limitations of the data inputs must be recognized. The hypotheses can not be accepted or rejected without qualifications, not only because of the multi-faceted aspects involved in each hypothesis, but also because of the qualitative rather than the quantitative nature of the study. However, based on the analysis of the available information, it is possible to accept or reject the hypotheses on a conditional basis. CONCLUSIONS BASED ON T H E ANALYSIS OF HYPOTHESES Hypothesis 1. It is postulated that a standardized development plan cannot be produced that is applicable to all African countries. HYPOTHESIS 1. IS A C C E P T E D There are basic features common to most African countries which suggest the possibility of a common approach to the devel-opmental process. However, while this may be true on the gen-eral level, the countries of Africa are quite diverse in terms of specific factors; each one is at a different stage of development and possesses a different social, political and economic environment. 151 There are differences in terms of average income, natural re-sources, education levels, etc.; there are also differences in developmental potential (both economic and social) and political considerations which determine the feasible objectives which can be accomplished through the national planning process. It appears, then, that there are enough significant differences among the African countries so that each country must prepare its own unique development plan. However, as noted in Chapter III, it may be possible that these plans can be prepared for all African countries based on a standardized planning process framework. Hypothesis 2. It is postulated that national plans which concentrate solely on the achievement of specific targets are not applicable in Africa. HYPOTHESIS 2. IS A C C E P T E D Concrete targets for economic and/or social indices are often utilized in national plans to concentrate developmental efforts in a few major areas and to provide definitive criteria for plan achievement. In many cases, however, these targets are based on political expediency and goals which are unreal or irrelevant in the African context; they can become ends themselves at the expense of real development. The scope of national development must be broader than target planning allows; development is a long-term process which embodies improvement over time of existing social, political and economic factors. Development cannot be measured in quantifiable terms of target achievement; the accomplishment of uncoordinated sectoral programmes can lead to further developmen-tal problems. The case of Zambia illustrates this fact: although several targets were successfully achieved during the plan period, 152 the net effect of the F . N. D, P. was a greater disparity between urban and rural areas, exactly the opposite of the espoused plan-ning objectives. This type of fragmentary planning approach seems to be ineffective in Africa because of its inflexibility and potential for misdirecting developmental efforts and investments. Hypothesis 3. It is postulated that development plans can not be effective given the existing data deficiencies in African countries. HYPOTHESIS 3. IS R E J E C T E D Large amounts of data are required to prepare, monitor and evaluate a national development plan; African countries generally lack the necessary informational resources that are demanded by this type of plan. The time, energy and costs necessary to over-come this deficiency seem to make this type of planning ineffective in the African context. However, many African plans have been ineffective not only because of scarcities of data, but also because of data inputs that are misused or ignored. Given the process framework of Chapterlll, it is possible to make better use of existing data in the formulation of national plans. This could be done by a systematic decentralization of the planning process to the local and regional levels as a means of obtaining data (both quantitative and impressionistic) and establishing an on-going information collection system. Consideration should be given to all available data in the planning process, and the plans themselves should provide for a continuous data collection operation. In this manner, data deficiencies can gradually be overcome and the national plans will become more 'realistic' and effective through the comprehensive use of all information concerning development. 153 Hypothesis 4. It is postulated that the lack of planning process and implementation details can cause African national plans to be ineffective. HYPOTHESIS 4. IS A C C E P T E D A well-conceived and organized planning process, detailing the steps from the formulation to the implementation of the plan, is necessary for the orderly achievement of national planning goals. Chapter II demonstrates that the failures of many African plans were caused by insufficient attention to the means of accomplish-ing stated plan objectives. In several cases, objectives were in-cluded in the plan without any consideration for actually implement-ing them at all. Many plans have also been ineffective because they lacked a coordinated structure of planning responsibilities or an ordered procedure that made the plan an end-product of a rational planning system. Constraints operating in the African system (political, economic, administrative and social) were often overlooked because there was not a defined method of dealing with them; plans were often rendered ineffectual because these constraints surfaced unexpectedly during the course of the plan period. Inattention to these process and execution mechanisms has produced many African plans that were impractical and un-feasible . Hypothesis 5. It is postulated that pre-independence plans maxi-mized returns to the colonial powers instead of promoting internal development of the African countries. HYPOTHESIS 5. IS A C C E P T E D Prior to Independence, whether through formal plans or not, the African countries were moulded to generate the greatest econ-omic benefits to the colonial powers. The export-oriented, depen-i54 dent economies of Africa were purposely established and main-tained by colonial powers. The spatial and structural ordering of these societies, with concentrated pockets of investment and infrastructure, was based on the exploitation of raw materials and primary products and the reciprocal distribution of manufact-ured imports supplied by the metropolitan countries. Chapter II suggests that there was little concern with the overall social and economic development of African countries. The examples of Chapter IV demonstrate the current concern of African countries with the reorganization of the countryside to promote well-balanced development. It appears that the 'parasitic' nature of the inherited spatial and functional organization established during the colonial times is not conducive to current African planning goals. Hypothesis 6. It is postulated that African national plans can be rendered impotent by persons or groups external to the formal planning process. HYPOTHESIS 6 . IS A C C E P T E D African countries are dependent upon and affected by many external forces and groups over which they exert little or no control. Faced with problems of scarce capital resources, trained personnel and indigenous entrepeneurs and industries, many African countries are reliant upon aid donations, technical assistance and mult-national corporations to meet developmental needs. The assoc-iated problems of 'tied' aid and 'crude private neo-colonialism' of Chapter II illustrate the type of control which external forces may have on the African planning process. Even well-designed national plans can be subverted by unexpected changes on the international level - e.g. decreased market prices, reduced aid, technical 155 substitutions for raw materials, . etc. Conversely, it has also been the case where external persons or groups have influenced the con-tent and direction of national plans so that the plans do not pro-mote the type of long-term development desired by African countries. Hypothesis 7. It is postulated that the scarcity of developmental capital can prevent successful implementation of African national plans. HYPOTHESIS 7. IS R E J E C T E D The relative poverty of most African countries presents a complex problem: they are faced with a large amount of develop-mental demands and a shortage of funds to meet their needs. Given the limited capital resources, both private and public, alternative investment decisions must be weighed carefully in the national plans. These plans are often prepared based upon pro-jected capital availability over the plan period; but the unpredict-able nature of foreign aid and government revenues (largely because of their resource-based economies) can cause major discrepancies between anticipated and actual investment capital which can be applied to implement these plans. However, plan effectiveness is not simply predicated by the amount of capital resources; as noted in Chapters II and III, it is also the case that inefficient utilization and management of capital (based on poorly developed absorption institutions) and impractical investment allocations also contribute to unsuccessful implementation of national plans. In the Zambian example, an adequate supply of capital was gener-ated by increased copper revenues, but the plan was unsuccessful in many ways despite the large amounts of capital investment. It appears that successful development plans require both capital and the efficient utilization of it. Hypothesis 8. It is postulated that a growth centre strategy can not be applied in the limited industrial economies of Africa . HYPOTHESIS 8. IS R E J E C T E D The growth centre strategy is typically associated with the propulsive economic function of basic activities located in space. The majority of African countries, however, lack a strong indus-trial and manufacturing sector within their economies. Furthermore, given the limited capital resources and technical competence, it appears that an industrialization strategy, based on the creation of propulsive large scale industries, is not currently a viable alter-native fn Africa, iln this sense, it would be hard to create basic activity growth points in African economic landscapes. However, as noted in Chapter IV, African countries are adopting their own form of a 'growth centre'strategy based on central place concepts. Their 'growth centres' are not based solely on industrial activity but rather o goods and services provision. Because long-term goals in Africa are based on human resource development, these 'growth centres' serve a distributional function;. ,that spreads the antecedents of human resource development in a hierarchical fashion to all areas of the country-side. This type of 'growth centre1 strategy appears to be particularly applicable in the agricultural economies of Africa and in situations where the auth-orities are attempting to prevent "hyper" rates of urbanization. Hypothesis 9. It is postulated that a rural development strategy can redress the regional imbalances within Zambia. HYPOTHESIS 9. IS R E J E C T E D Zambia is one of the most urbanized and wealthiest (in 157 terms of GNP per capita) countries in Tropical Africa. It also has an agricultural sector that provides only a small percentage (7% in 1970) of total GDP. This combination has resulted in a significant level of regional imbalances between the urban and the rural sectors. The FNDP attempted to redress these imbalances based on a rural development strategy. Although this appears to be a rational planning policy, Chapter V points out the ineffect-iveness of the strategy that was pursued and the increased im-balances that resulted from the F N D P . The reduction of regional imbalances necessitates more than investment in major rural development schemes; it requires a comprehensive plan embodying policies for migration, urbanization, agricultural development and infrastructure provision. Efforts aimed at rural development will be ineffectual until the underlying causes of regional imbalances are addressed and plans made to affect all facets of the national environment which contribute to these imbalances. A rural devel-opment policy appears to be a necessary, but not sufficient strat-egy to promote more equitable spatial development in Zambia. Hypothesis 10. It is postulated that a well-defined urbanization policy can improve the effectiveness of national developmental planning in Zambia. HYPOTHESIS 10. IS A C C E P T E D Zambia, perhaps more so than other African countries, must make some effort to actively deal with the phenomenon of rampant urbanization. Not only is there a very high level of urbanization in Zambia, but there is also a condition of extreme spatial concentration of urban areas along the line-of-rail . Many of the barriers to desired development in Zambia are directly 158 related to or caused by unchecked urban growth. The rural areas are not just stagnating, they are declining both in terms of pro-ductivity and relative population growth. 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African Social  Research, Vol . 12 (December, 1971), pp. 91-94. 170 APPENDIX APPENDIX I A N E X A M P L E OF A PROPOSED FUNCTIONAL HIERARCHY OF S E T T L E M E N T S G U I D E L I N E S F O R T H E L O C A T I O N O F I N F R A S T R U C T U R A L F A C I L I T I E S A T T H E V A R I O U S L E V E L S O F C E N T R E S {See— N O T E S B E L O W ) Level of Centres Educational Services Health Services Recreational and other Ser vices Social Principal Towns National Capital University Teacher Training College (secon-dary level) Technical College Hospital (national standard) Municipalities Teacher training college (primary level) Technical school (secondary level) Hospital (provincial standard) Museum/art centre Urban Centres Senior Secondary School (to form VI) Technical School (primary level) Hospital (District Standard) Stadium Public Library Recreational Park Cinema Showground Rural Centres Secondary School (at least to form IV) Village polytechnic Health centre (+maternity unit) Mobile Library Service Sports field Social Hall Mobile cinema Market Centres Secondary School Dispensary Family Planning Service Local Centres Full primary school (2-3 streams) Nursery school NOTES.—1 . Private sector facilities, e.g. commercial and industrial undertakings, will be located in service centres according to the economic development potential. They will therefore not necessarily adhere to the hierarchical pattern of other infrastructure. 2. To the service.,;:J. gainst each level of centre should be added those services listed against the centres of lower level, eg., in the majority of cases a rural centre will also have all the services existing in market and local centres. G U I D E L I N E S F O R T H E L O C A T I O N O F I N F R A S T U R C T U R A L FACIL IT IES A N D T H E V A R I O U S L E V E L S O F C E N T R E S (See—NOTES BELOW) Level c f Centres Administrative Services I Civic Services Communication Services Principal Towns National Capital Government Ministries High Court National Police Headquarters etc. International Airport. International Bus Services. Municipalities Provincial Administration Resident Magistrate's Court Provincial Police Headquarter Fire Station Served by International/National Trunk Road Head Post Office. Telephone facilities (automatic exchange). Regional Litis Service. Airfield. Urban Centres District Administration District Court Divisional Police Headquarter -Served by National Trunk/Primary Road Airstrip Rural Centres Divisional Administration . Police Station Sewage Disposal system Grid Water Supply Electricity Served by Primary/Secondary road Departmental Post-OQice Market Centres Locational and Sub-Locational administration Police Post Public Water Supply Served by Secondary/Minor road Telephone Facilities (Manual ex-change) Sub-Post Office Airstrip (only remote areas) Local bus service Local Centres Source: Development Plan. 1974. - 1978. .Republic of Kenya 

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