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Adult students in university : long-term persistence to degree-completion 1990

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ADULT STUDENTS IN UNIVERSITY: LONG-TERM PERSISTENCE TO DEGREE-COMPLETION by JACK McLAREN A DISSERTATION SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF EDUCATION i n THE FACULTY OF GRADUATE STUDIES (Department of Administrative, Adult and Higher Education) We accept t h i s d i s s e r t a t i o n as conforming to the required standard THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA © Jack McLaren 1990 In present ing this thesis in partial fulfilment of the requ irements for an a d v a n c e d d e g r e e at the University of British C o l u m b i a , I agree that the Library shall m a k e it freely available for reference an d study. I further agree that permiss ion for extensive c o p y i n g of this thesis for scholarly p u r p o s e s may b e granted by the h e a d o f m y d e p a r t m e n t o r by his o r her representatives. It is u n d e r s t o o d that c o p y i n g o r publ i ca t ion of this thesis for financial gain shall not b e a l l o w e d wi thout m y written p e r m i s s i o n . D e p a r t m e n t o f A d m i n i s t r a t i v e , A d u l t & H i g h e r E d u c a t i o n T h e Universi ty of British C o l u m b i a V a n c o u v e r , C a n a d a Date May 29, 1990 D E - 6 (2/88) ABSTRACT Long-term persistence to degree completion by adult university students represents a different focus from most adult education participation research and higher education dropout research. Much of the research on adults in university has treated these adults as a new (non- traditional) group, despite evidence that many had been enrolled as traditional-age students. Samples limited to first-year students, part-time students, and students in ' special programs provide only a limited perspective on the whole population of adults in university. It was hypothesized that adults who had been in university as traditional-age students and returned later (Re-entry studenty) would be more persistent to degree completion than adults who had enrolled for the f i r s t time at age twenty-five or older (Adult Entry students). While the hypothesis was not clearly supported, differences between the two groups were discovered. Six hypotheses were generated from the literature on adult participation and on higher education dropouts. These were tested using bivariate analysis. The multivariate techniques of multiple regression and discriminant analysis were employed to examine differences between Re-entry students and Adult Entry students in persistence to degree completion. i i The most important v a r i a b l e a f f e c t i n g Re-entry- s t u d e n t s ' p e r s i s t e n c e was Grade P o i n t Average; the most p o t e n t v a r i a b l e w i t h A d u l t E n t r y s t u d e n t s was w o r k - r e l a t e d problems. With both groups, p e r s i s t e n c e was a f f e c t e d by s a t i s f a c t i o n . E a r l y - c a r e e r m o b i l i t y had an ambiguous e f f e c t ; downward m o b i l i t y i n e a r l y c a r e e r was a s s o c i a t e d w i t h p e r s i s t e n c e by A d u l t E n t r y s t u d e n t s ; upward m o b i l i t y c o r r e l a t e d w i t h p e r s i s t e n c e by Re-entry s t u d e n t s . A new t y p o l o g y of a d u l t s t u d e n t i n h i g h e r e d u c a t i o n i s suggested. F i r s t - t i m e s t u d e n t s — n e w s t u d e n t s who have never p r e v i o u s l y been e n r o l l e d — a r e a h i g h - r i s k group (prone t o d r o p o u t ) , but t h o s e who p e r s i s t i n i t i a l l y may become more p e r s i s t e n t t han Re-entry s t u d e n t s . i i i T a b l e o f Contents Page A b s t r a c t i i T a b l e o f Contents i v L i s t o f T a b l e s v i i i L i s t o f F i g u r e s x i i Chapter 1 BACKGROUND TO THE PROBLEM? 1 I n t r o d u c t i o n 1 A d u l t s i n U n i v e r s i t y New Students o r Not? 2 P a r t i c i p a t i o n and P e r s i s t e n c e 5 Statement of the Problem 7 The Remaining Chapters 8 Chapter 2 REVIEW OF THE LITERATURE 10 I n t r o d u c t i o n 10 A d u l t E d u c a t i o n P a r t i c i p a t i o n Research 12 Dropout Research i n Higher E d u c a t i o n 16 G e n e r a l Dropout S t u d i e s 16 Long-term P e r s p e c t i v e i n Dropout R e s e a r c h . 18 Research on A d u l t s i n Higher E d u c a t i o n 20 D e s c r i p t i v e and Market S t u d i e s 21 S o c i o l o g i c a l Research on A d u l t s i n H i g h e r E d u c a t i o n ' 24 Other R e l e v a n t Research 27 Summary 28 Chapter 3 CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK FOR THE STUDY OF LONG-RANGE PARTICIPATION AND PERSISTENCE 30 I n t r o d u c t i o n 30 Models of P a r t i c i p a t i o n and Dropout 31 The C r o s s Model of A d u l t P a r t i c i p a t i o n . . . . 31 The T i n t o Model of Dropout from Higher E d u c a t i o n 34 A Model of Long-term P e r s i s t e n c e by A d u l t s 38 Hypotheses 44 A d u l t E n t r y v s . Re-entry 44 Background c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s 4 6 Time of D e c i s i o n 47 Fa m i l y E d u c a t i o n a l Background; Degree A s p i r a t i o n 48 S o c i a l C l a s s / M o b i l i t y 49 i v T a b l e of Contents Page P a r t i c i p a t i o n F a c t o r s 51 S a t i s f a c t i o n 53 Support; Problems 54 Summary 56 Chapter 4 RESEARCH DESIGN AND SURVEY PROCEDURES 59 I n t r o d u c t i o n 59 Sources of Data 59 Student Records Data 61 The M a i l e d Survey 62 Sample 63 Q u e s t i o n n a i r e 64 M a i l e d Survey: Response Rate 67 i Respondents and Non-respondents Compared.. 7 0 Length of Time 72 Number of C r e d i t s . . 74 Grade P o i n t Average 75 Telephone Survey 7 6 A n a l y s i s 81 V a r i a b l e s 81 Data A n a l y s i s 87 Chapter 5 TESTING HYPOTHESES: BACKGROUND FACTORS AND-DEGREE COMPLETION 89 I n t r o d u c t i o n 89 Hy p o t h e s i s T e s t i n g . " 89 The E n t r y Hypothesis 90 Time of D e c i s i o n 96 F a m i l y E d u c a t i o n a l Background; Degree A s p i r a t i o n 103 S o c i a l C l a s s / M o b i l i t y - . 107 Summary: Background C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s 116 Chapter 6 TESTING HYPOTHESES PARTICIPATION EFFECTS AND DEGREE COMPLETION 119 I n t r o d u c t i o n 119 S a t i s f a c t i o n 120 Immediate P a y o f f 121 S a t i s f a c t i o n w i t h S o c i a l L i f e 123 The S a t i s f a c t i o n V a r i a b l e 126 I n s t r u c t o r Contact 128 C o u n s e l l i n g 130 v Table of Contents Page The Importance of Satisfaction 130 Support; Problems 134 Support 135 Problems 13 8 Summary 143 Chapter 7 PREDICTING DEGREE COMPLETION: USE OF MULTIPLE REGRESSION AND DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS 14 7 Introduction 147 Correlations with Degree Completion 14 9 Regression 153 Full Sample.. 155 Adult Entry and Re-entry Compared 159 ' Discriminant Analysis 166 Full Sample 167 Adult Entry and Re-entry Compared 17 3 Summary and Conclusion 179 Chapter ,8 CONCLUSION:NEW AND RETURNING STUDENTS 183 Introduction. 183 Summary of Findings 185 Adult Participation 185 Higher Education Dropout 188 The Cross and Tinto Models 192 Model of Long-range Persistence by Re-entry and Adult Entry Students 196 Quality and Quantity of Educational Experience. 198 Implications for Practitioners 202 Suggestions for Further Research 2 05 Limitations of the Study 207 Conclusion Experience and Expectations 208 vi Table of Contents Page BIBLIOGRAPHY 210 APPENDICES 220 A. Student Records 221 B. Mail Survey 224 C. Telephone Survey 238 D. Correlation Matrices 244 v i i L i s t o f T a b l e s Page T a b l e 1 H y p o t h e s i z e d D i f f e r e n c e s R e l a t e d t o P o p u l a t i o n s Sampled and To L o n g - T e r m P e r s i s t e n c e 41 2 Summary o f H y p o t h e s e s : Background C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s and Degree C o m p l e t i o n 52 3 Summary o f H y p o t h e s e s : P a r t i c i p a t i o n F a c t o r s and E n t r y S t a t u s 57 4 Response Rate by Degree C o m p l e t i o n and Age o f I n i t i a l R e g i s t r a t i o n a t S . F . U 71 5 Response Rate o f D e g r e e - C o m p l e t e r s and Non- C o m p l e t e r s by Term o f I n i t i a l R e g i s t r a t i o n 7 3 6 Response Rate o f D e g r e e - C o m p l e t e r s and Non- C o m p l e t e r s by Number o f C r e d i t Hours a t S . F . U . ( T o t a l by Summer, 1983) 74 7 Response Rate o f D e g r e e - C o m p l e t e r s and Non- C o m p l e t e r s by Grade P o i n t A v e r a g e 75 8 R e s u l t s o f T e l e p h o n e Survey 7 8 9 T e l e p h o n e I n t e r v i e w e e s ' Reasons f o r not C o m p l e t i n g Q u e s t i o n n a i r e 80 10 V a r i a b l e s Used i n M u l t i v a r i a t e A n a l y s i s o f Degree C o m p l e t i o n : Summary S t a t i s t i c s 82 11 Degree C o m p l e t i o n and Age o f F i r s t R e g i s t r a t i o n of Male S t u d e n t s Aged 25-34 a t S . F . U . (S tudent Records Data By A d u l t E n t r y and R e - E n t r y S t a t u s ) 93 12 Degree C o m p l e t i o n and N o n - C o m p l e t i o n by A d u l t E n t r y and R e - e n t r y S t a t u s ( M a i l Survey ) 94 13 Time o f D e c i s i o n and Degree C o m p l e t i o n 97 14 Time of D e c i s i o n and Degree C o m p l e t i o n : A d u l t E n t r y and R e - E n t r y Compared 98 15 P e r c e n t C o m p l e t i n g Degrees by M a i n M o t i v e a t Time o f E n r o l l i n g or R e - e n r o l l i n g . . . . 100 v i i i L i s t of Tables Page Table 16 Emphasis on V o c a t i o n a l v s. S e l f / U n d e r s t a n d i n g Reasons f o r A t t e n d i n g , by E n t r y Status 102 17 Mother's E d u c a t i o n and Degree Completion 104 18 Mother's E d u c a t i o n and E n t r y Status 105 19 Degree Completion and S o c i a l M o b i l i t y 110 20 Degree Completion and E a r l y - C a r e e r M o b i l i t y . . . . 112 21 Degree Completion and L e v e l of A s p i r a t i o n 114 22 Support f o r P r e d i c t i o n s from Chapter 3: Background C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s and Degree Completion 117 23 Percent C o n s i d e r i n g Immediate A p p l i c a t i o n Important by Degree Completion and E n t r y S t a t u s 122 24 S a t i s f a c t i o n w i t h S o c i a l L i f e and Degree Completion 125 25 Percent Very S a t i s f i e d With Aspects of Simon F r a s e r Experience by E n t r y S t a t u s and Degree Completion 127 2 6 Degree Completion and S a t i s f a c t i o n With I n s t r u c t o r Contact 129 2 7 Degree Completion and S a t i s f a c t i o n With C o u n s e l l i n g 131 28 A n a l y s i s of V a r i a n c e f o r Degree Completion Comparing E f f e c t s of S a t i s f a c t i o n and E n t r y S t a t u s 133 29 Degree Completion and Number of Sources of Support 137 30 Degree Completion and Work-Related Problems.... 139 31 Type of Problem Reported as Main One During Time as Student, by Degree/Entry Category 141 i x . L i s t of Ta b l e s Page Table 32 Support f o r p r e d i c t i o n s from Chapter 3: P a r t i c i p a t i o n F a c t o r s and E n t r y S t a t u s 144 33 C o r r e l a t i o n s of Background and P a r t i c i p a t i o n V a r i a b l e s w i t h Degree Completion, F u l l Sample.. 150 34 C o r r e l a t i o n s of Background and P a r t i c i p a t i o n V a r i a b l e s With Degree Completion, A d u l t E n t r y and Re-Entry Compared 151 35 M u l t i p l e Regression: Background and P a r t i c i p a t i o n V a r i a b l e s and Degree Completion ( F u l l Sample) 156 36 M u l t i p l e Regression: Background and P a r t i c i p a t i o n V a r i a b l e s and Degree Completion (Adult E n t r y and Re-Entry Compared) 161 37 D i s c r i m i n a n t A n a l y s i s Using the D i r e c t Method: Summary S t a t i s t i c s f o r Degree Completion ( F u l l Sample) 168 38 D i s c r i m i n a n t A n a l y s i s Using Wilks Method: Background and P a r t i c i p a t i o n V a r i a b l e s , I n c l u d i n g E n t r y , and Degree Completion ( F u l l Sample) -. 170 39 D i s c r i m i n a n t A n a l y s i s Using Wilks Method: Background and P a r t i c i p a t i o n V a r i a b l e s , Not i n c l u d i n g E n t r y , and Degree Completion ( F u l l Sample) 171 4 0 D i s c r i m i n a n t A n a l y s i s Using D i r e c t Method: Summary S t a t i s t i c s f o r degree completion (Adult E n t r y and Re-Entry Compared) 174 41 D i s c r i m i n a n t A n a l y s i s Using Wilks Method: Background and P a r t i c i p a t i o n V a r i a b l e s and Degree Completion (Adult Entry) 176 42 D i s c r i m i n a n t A n a l y s i s Using Wilks Method: Background and P a r t i c i p a t i o n V a r i a b l e s and Degree Completion (Re-entry) 17 7 x L i s t of Tables Page Table 4 3 V a r i a b l e s of S i g n i f i c a n c e With the F u l l Sample, and A d u l t E n t r y and Re-Entry Subsamples from Both Regression and D i s c r i m i n a n t Analyses 182 x i List of Figures Figure 1 Cross's Model of Adult Participation 33 2, Tinto's Model of Attrition 35 3 Simplified Model of Factors Affecting Long-range Persistence 39 4 Model of Long Range Persistence By Re-entry and Adult Entry Adult Students 43 x i i 1 CHAPTER 1 BACKGROUND TO THE PROBLEM I n t r o d u c t i o n For the l a s t two decades, t h e r e has been a c o n s i d e r a b l e i n t e r e s t i n a d u l t students i n c o l l e g e s and u n i v e r s i t i e s i n North America. There have been a number of s t u d i e s of a d u l t students b e g i n n i n g i n the 1970s (summarized by Cross, 1981) and c o n t i n u i n g i n the 1980s ( f o r example, D a v i l a , 1985). There has been some excitement generated by the t o p i c , as suggested by t i t l e s l i k e The New M a j o r i t y : A d u l t Learners i n the U n i v e r s i t y (D. Campbell, 1984) and A d u l t L e a r n e r s : Key t o the Nation's Future (Commission on Higher E d u c a t i o n and the A d u l t Learner, 1984). At l e a s t some of the i n t e r e s t i n a d u l t students i s r e l a t e d t o demographics. The age group which has t r a d i t i o n a l l y s u p p l i e d the u n i v e r s i t y student p o p u l a t i o n has d e c l i n e d as a p r o p o r t i o n of the p o p u l a t i o n , c r e a t i n g a problem f o r the i n s t i t u t i o n s i n enrollment and i n support. T h i s has generated two responses: l o o k i n g t o a l t e r n a t i v e "markets" such as a d u l t s , and a t t a c k i n g the dropout problem by attempting t o r e t a i n a hig h e r p r o p o r t i o n of st u d e n t s , both t r a d i t i o n a l - a g e and a d u l t s . 2 U s u a l l y r e c r u i t m e n t and r e t e n t i o n are t r e a t e d as separate problems. There i s at best a p e r i p h e r a l mention of a d u l t s i n dropout r e s e a r c h and t h e r e i s l i t t l e c o n s i d e r a t i o n of p e r s i s t e n c e i n s t u d i e s of a d u l t s i n u n i v e r s i t y , where the emphasis i s on a t t r a c t i n g the a d u l t s i n the f i r s t p l a c e . P e r s i s t e n c e by a d u l t students has seldom been s t u d i e d s p e c i f i c a l l y . There i s c o n f u s i o n about the a d u l t s i n u n i v e r s i t y , who are t r e a t e d i n many s t u d i e s as i f they were new t o p o s t - secondary e d u c a t i o n when, i n f a c t , many are r e t u r n e e s who had been e n r o l l e d as t r a d i t i o n a l - a g e s t u d e n t s . A l s o , t h e r e i s some d i s t o r t i o n due t o r e s e a r c h f o c u s i n g on p a r t i c i p a t i o n or on p e r s i s t e n c e , which has r e s u l t e d i n s t u d i e s focused on d i f f e r e n t p o p u l a t i o n s , i n n e i t h e r case r e p r e s e n t a t i v e of a d u l t students i n u n i v e r s i t y . These two i s s u e s are d i s c u s s e d b r i e f l y i n the f o l l o w i n g s e c t i o n s , p r e c e d i n g a statement of the problem which i s the focus of the r e s e a r c h r e p o r t e d i n t h i s study. The chapter concludes w i t h a b r i e f o u t l i n e of the r e s t of the d i s s e r t a t i o n . A d u l t s i n U n i v e r s i t y : New Students or Not? Some r e s e a r c h i n d i c a t e s t h a t a d u l t students and t r a d i t i o n a l - a g e students (those aged 24 or l e s s , many of whom would have e n r o l l e d immediately a f t e r high school) have s i m i l a r motives f o r p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n high e r e d u c a t i o n . T h i s c o u l d l e a d t o the response t h a t the i n s t i t u t i o n s do not have 3 to make any s p e c i a l adjustments f o r a d u l t students (Solmon and Gordon, 1981). However, i f i t i s t r u e t h a t a d u l t students are mainly l i k e t r a d i t i o n a l - a g e students and a r e , i n f a c t , o f t e n r e t u r n i n g former t r a d i t i o n a l - a g e s t u d e n t s , t h i s c o n c l u s i o n may be suspect. U n i v e r s i t i e s may have t o make c o n s i d e r a b l e adjustments i f new, d i f f e r e n t kinds of students are t o be r e c r u i t e d . I f the most p e r s i s t e n t a d u l t students are the r e t u r n i n g students and not those who are g e n u i n e l y new t o h i g h e r e d u c a t i o n , t h i s may be a d d i t i o n a l evidence t h a t the process i s not s u c c e s s f u l w i t h d i f f e r e n t k inds of s t u d e n t s . In Canada, 37.4% of the students i n post-secondary c r e d i t programs i n 1984-85 were aged 25 and over. Students aged 25 or more made up 75% of p a r t - t i m e enrollment i n c r e d i t programs, which had grown i n Canada by 54.5% between 1975 and 1984, compared t o a growth of 23.3% i n f u l l - t i m e e n r ollment i n the same p e r i o d ( S t a t i s t i c s Canada, 1986). In the U n i t e d S t a t e s , enrollment i n post-secondary e d u c a t i o n decreased f o r the f i r s t time i n over f o r t y years i n 1984, then i n c r e a s e d i n 1985 d e s p i t e a p r e d i c t i o n of f u r t h e r decrease by demographers. The i n c r e a s e has been a t t r i b u t e d t o a t t r a c t i n g o l d e r , p a r t - t i m e students (Cross, 1987). P o s s i b l y , r e t u r n i n g "stop-outs" may account f o r some of t h i s i n c r e a s e i n e n r o l l m e n t s by a d u l t s (Smart and P a s c a r e l l a , 1987 ) . 4 Much of the s p e c u l a t i v e l i t e r a t u r e on a d u l t students i n highe r e d u c a t i o n d e s c r i b e s a p o p u l a t i o n of students new t o c o l l e g e or u n i v e r s i t y — a second-chance, upwardly mobile group who had not p r e v i o u s l y e n r o l l e d i n a h i g h e r e d u c a t i o n program. E m p i r i c a l s t u d i e s r e s u l t i n a d i f f e r e n t p i c t u r e . Many (an i n c r e a s i n g p r o p o r t i o n i n the 1970s) of these a d u l t students were re t u r n e e s who had had some p r e v i o u s p o s t - secondary e d u c a t i o n ( P i c o t , 1980). In the U.S., students aged 25 and over made up only 2% of new enr o l l m e n t s i n 1980, but were over 38% of the t o t a l enrollment ( T i n t o , 1987) C e r t a i n l y , many of the a d u l t students i n u n i v e r s i t y are not new. In t h i s d i s s e r t a t i o n , a d u l t students are d e f i n e d as i n d i v i d u a l s t w e n t y - f i v e years of age and o l d e r , e n r o l l e d i n degree programs. D e f i n i t i o n s of a d u l t students i n a d u l t e d u c a t i o n t y p i c a l l y exclude f u l l - t i m e students; however, almost a l l i n d i v i d u a l s 25 and o l d e r would have q u a l i f i e d as a d u l t s i n t h a t they would have been, a t l e a s t a t one time, i n p r o d u c t i v e r o l e s o t h e r than student. An age d e f i n i t i o n i s r e l a t i v e l y simple and has been used f r e q u e n t l y i n r e s e a r c h (examples i n Cross, 1981); u s i n g age 25 as a demarcation i s common ( D a v i l a , 1985), and wh i l e i t may exclude some who should be c o n s i d e r e d as a d u l t s t u d e n t s , i t i s a f a i r l y s a f e boundary f o r a s s u r i n g t h a t a l l i n c l u d e d are indeed a d u l t s . The l i m i t a t i o n t o c r e d i t programs i s 5 necessary because of the i n t e r e s t i n long-term p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n programs not j u s t c o u r s e s . P a r t i c i p a t i o n and P e r s i s t e n c e There i s some d e f i n i t i o n a l (or perhaps t e r r i t o r i a l ) c o n f u s i o n about a d u l t students. P a r t - t i m e students are sometimes grouped with students i n n o n - c r e d i t ( o f t e n g e n e r a l i n t e r e s t ) programs as being p a r t of C o n t i n u i n g E d u c a t i o n (D. Campbell, 1984). Yet a d u l t s are more l i k e l y t o move back and f o r t h between p a r t - t i m e and f u l l - t i m e s t a t u s i n c r e d i t programs than from n o n - c r e d i t t o c r e d i t courses ( J . Campbell, Henstchel, R o s s i , and S p i r o , 1984). A d u l t students i n h i g h e r e d u c a t i o n may have more i n common w i t h t r a d i t i o n a l - a g e students i n h i g h e r e d u c a t i o n than w i t h students i n other a d u l t e d u c a t i o n programs. S t u d i e s of a d u l t post-secondary students tend t o be l i m i t e d t o f i r s t - y e a r students or students i n s p e c i a l a d u l t programs (Cross, 1981). These s t u d i e s g i v e a p i c t u r e of a d u l t students as a group more r e p r e s e n t a t i v e of the p o p u l a t i o n a t l a r g e than are t r a d i t i o n a l - a g e h i g h e r e d u c a t i o n s t u d e n t s . Some other s t u d i e s — f o r example, surveys of p a r t - t i m e students at a l l l e v e l s (Levy-Coughlin P a r t n e r s h i p , 1981;. Humphreys and P o r t e r , 1978) g i v e a d i f f e r e n t p i c t u r e . These s t u d i e s i n d i c a t e t h a t many of the a d u l t students, and perhaps the most p e r s i s t e n t and 6 s u c c e s s f u l , are not new t o the system. However, these s t u d i e s d i d not focus on p e r s i s t e n c e . S t u d i e s of dropouts from higher e d u c a t i o n o f t e n i n v o l v e o n l y f i r s t - y e a r students and seldom go beyond f o u r or f i v e years (Lenning, B e a l , and Sauer, 1980). When the time frame i s extended t o ten y e a r s , i t i s found t h a t many apparent dropouts e v e n t u a l l y complete degrees at the same or a d i f f e r e n t i n s t i t u t i o n (Eckland, 1964). S t u d i e s of a d u l t students, u s i n g i n d i v i d u a l s at a l l l e v e l s not j u s t f i r s t - y e ar, would i n c l u d e some of the l a t e r graduates c l a s s i f i e d i n other s t u d i e s as dropouts. A g r e a t e r p r o p o r t i o n would not be i d e n t i f i e d as new t o high e r e d u c a t i o n . P a r t i c i p a t i o n r e s e a r c h i s an emphasis i n the l i t e r a t u r e of a d u l t e d u c a t i o n (Darkenwald and Merriam, 1982), w h i l e the study of p e r s i s t e n c e v s . dropout i s a focus of h i g h e r e d u c a t i o n (Lenning, B e a l , and Sauer, 1980). The a d u l t e d u c a t i o n emphasis lead s t o c o n c e n t r a t i n g on the r e c r u i t s or the new students i n the programs, and can r e s u l t i n m i s r e p r e s e n t i n g the p o p u l a t i o n of a d u l t s i n u n i v e r s i t y . The hig h e r e d u c a t i o n focus on the dropout d e c i s i o n f r e q u e n t l y leads t o p u t t i n g too s h o r t a time frame on the r e s e a r c h . The r e s u l t s i n both i n s t a n c e s are sample s e l e c t i o n s which are not r e p r e s e n t a t i v e of the p o p u l a t i o n of a d u l t students i n u n i v e r s i t y . 7 Statement of the Problem The r e s e a r c h r e p o r t e d here focuses on d i f f e r e n c e s i n p e r s i s t e n c e t o degree completion between those a d u l t students who have been t r a d i t i o n a l - a g e students and those who s t a r t e d i n post-secondary e d u c a t i o n as a d u l t s . I f p r e v i o u s experience i n post-secondary e d u c a t i o n a f f e c t s how i n d i v i d u a l s respond t o the student r o l e and i f the q u a l i t y of the experience a f f e c t s p e r s i s t e n c e , then t h e r e should be s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e s between the two groups. The d i f f e r e n c e s may be important f o r our understanding of a d u l t s t u d e n t s ' p e r s i s t e n c e and a t t r i t i o n i n h i g h e r e d u c a t i o n . Looking a t both f u l l - t i m e and p a r t - t i m e a d u l t s a t a l l l e v e l s of undergraduate study and u s i n g a ten-year time frame should r e s u l t i n a v o i d i n g some of the gaps i n p r e v i o u s r e s e a r c h . The study combines the a d u l t e d u c a t i o n emphasis on p a r t i c i p a t i o n and the h i g h e r e d u c a t i o n emphasis on p e r s i s t e n c e . I t looks both at a d u l t s who are new t o h i g h e r e d u c a t i o n and those who have r e t u r n e d a f t e r s t o p p i n g out, but were post-secondary students as p r e - a d u l t s . Those who f i r s t e n r o l l e d at age 25 or o l d e r are c l a s s i f i e d as A d u l t E n t r y students; those who e n r o l l e d i n i t i a l l y i n p o s t - secondary e d u c a t i o n at a younger age are c l a s s i f i e d as Re- e n t r y s t u d e n t s . An e f f o r t i s made to analyze d i f f e r e n c e s between these groups i n terms of v a r i a b l e s a s s o c i a t e d with p e r s i s t e n c e i n r e s e a r c h with t r a d i t i o n a l - a g e s t u d e n t s , and 8 to assess the e f fects of the var iab le s with adult students i n general . In addi t ion to the t h e o r e t i c a l i n t e r e s t , t h i s knowledge should be of value to u n i v e r s i t y administrators and adult educators in teres ted i n program and i n s t i t u t i o n a l growth and s u r v i v a l . I t could a lso benef i t the adult students themselves and t h e i r counse l lors . The Remaining Chapters The next chapter, Chapter 2, i s a review of the l i t e r a t u r e from three major sources: the adult education p a r t i c i p a t i o n l i t e r a t u r e , higher education dropout s tudies , and the l i t e r a t u r e on adult p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n higher education, inc lud ing the l i t e r a t u r e on marketing. In Chapter 3, there i s some further l i t e r a t u r e review. Two e x i s t i n g models, one of adult p a r t i c i p a t i o n and one of u n i v e r s i t y dropout, are analyzed i n the process of developing the conceptual framework for t h i s research. The chapter contains the d e f i n i t i o n s and hypotheses used i n t h i s study, and a model used to group the hypotheses. The emphasis i s on the di f ferences between adults who are new to higher education (Adult Entry) and those who had been students i n postsecondary education as t r a d i t i o n a l - a g e students (Re-entry) . Chapter 4 out l ines the research procedure fol lowed. Records of adult students at Simon Fraser Un ivers i ty i n the 9 f a l l of 1973 were analyzed and a sample of younger male students was surveyed by m a i l , with a foll o w - u p survey of some non-respondents by telephone. The chapter c o n t a i n s d i s c u s s i o n s of the q u e s t i o n n a i r e development and survey p r o c e s s e s , as w e l l as of the d i f f e r e n c e s between respondents and non-respondents, compared on the b a s i s of student r e c o r d s data. In Chapters 5 and 6, the hypotheses from Chapter 3 are t e s t e d , u s i n g mainly the survey data w i t h some i n f o r m a t i o n from student r e c o r d s . The hypotheses on background c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of students are t e s t e d i n Chapter 5; Chapter 6 d e a l s w i t h hypotheses on the e f f e c t s of the experi e n c e of being a student ( p a r t i c i p a t i o n f a c t o r s ) . Data analyses i n both c h a p t e r s use mainly u n i v a r i a t e and b i v a r i a t e t e c h n i q u e s . Chapter 7 employs m u l t i v a r i a t e t e c h n i q u e s — m u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n and d i s c r i m i n a n t a n a l y s i s — t o a n alyze t h r e e groups, the f u l l m a i l survey sample, and the A d u l t E n t r y and Re-entry subgroups of the ma i l e d survey. Each of the t h r e e groups i s analyzed s e p a r a t e l y , u s i n g both types of a n a l y s i s . In Chapter 8, the f i n d i n g s are summarized. A r e v i s i o n of the A d u l t Entry/Re-entry t y p o l o g y i s suggested t o account f o r some of the observed r e l a t i o n s h i p s and the r e s u l t s of t e s t i n g some of the hypotheses. The l i m i t a t i o n s of t h i s study, i m p l i c a t i o n s f o r a d m i n i s t r a t o r s , and suggestions f o r f u r t h e r r e s e a r c h are i n c l u d e d i n t h i s f i n a l c h a p t e r . 10 CHAPTER 2 REVIEW OF THE LITERATURE Introduction With the aging of the population of North America together with a decline i n the size of the population of t r a d i t i o n a l age for attendance i n university, i t has become important both to keep as many as possible of the traditional-age students who e n r o l l and to r e c r u i t i n d i v i d u a l s of non-traditional age as students. The two r e s u l t i n g streams of research—dropout studies and adult p a r t i c i p a t i o n studies—have been e s s e n t i a l l y separate u n t i l very recently. Dropout studies, mainly from higher education, have usually focused on f u l l - t i m e traditional-age students. P a r t i c i p a t i o n studies, mainly from adult education, have been more concerned with who the adults are and what they want than with what f a c i l i t a t e s t h e i r persistence. Adult education researchers tend to emphasize i n d i v i d u a l needs, and to downplay c r e d i t and credentials; higher education researchers generally emphasize i n s t i t u t i o n a l s u r v i v a l . However, i t i s worthwhile to combine the adult education and higher education perspectives and to include long-term considerations i n a study of 11 d r o p o u t / p e r s i s t e n c e • Whichever p e r s p e c t i v e i s taken, the student ( i n d i v i d u a l ) or i n s t i t u t i o n a l , u nderstanding of long-term p e r s i s t e n c e should prove i n s i g h t f u l . T h i s chapter examines f o u r bodies of l i t e r a t u r e t h a t are r e l e v a n t to the s u b j e c t of a d u l t p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n h i g h e r e d u c a t i o n , from both the i n d i v i d u a l and the i n s t i t u t i o n a l p e r s p e c t i v e . F i r s t , t h e r e i s a review of the l i t e r a t u r e from a d u l t e d u c a t i o n on p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n e d u c a t i o n a l programs i n g e n e r a l and c r e d i t programs i n p a r t i c u l a r . Second, the l i t e r a t u r e on dropout i n h i g h e r e d u c a t i o n i s reviewed. A s u b - s e c t i o n of the review of dropout s t u d i e s d e a l s w i t h r e s e a r c h from the 1960s which used a ten-year time frame. The t h i r d s e c t i o n d e a l s with a d u l t p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n p o s t - secondary education, an area which has been of i n t e r e s t f o r the l a s t two decades t o r e s e a r c h e r s and a d m i n i s t r a t o r s both i n a d u l t e d u c a t i o n and h i g h e r e d u c a t i o n . A s u b - s e c t i o n focuses on s e l e c t e d s o c i o l o g i c a l s t u d i e s of a d u l t s i n h i g h e r e d u c a t i o n . F i n a l l y , some r e l e v a n t suggestions from the l i t e r a t u r e on v o c a t i o n a l c o u n s e l l i n g and s o c i a l m o b i l i t y are c o n s i d e r e d . In Chapter 3, two models from the l i t e r a t u r e are examined. They are p l a c e d i n the next chapter, which d e a l s w i t h the c o n c e p t u a l framework f o r t h i s study, as p a r t of the d i s c u s s i o n of p r e l i m i n a r y steps towards d e v e l o p i n g a model of long-range p a r t i c i p a t i o n and p e r s i s t e n c e . 12 Adult Education P a r t i c i p a t i o n Research P a r t i c i p a t i o n i s a major emphasis i n adult education research. There have been a number of surveys of part i c i p a n t s , and of the general population regarding p a r t i c i p a t i o n , beginning with Johnstone and Rivera's i n 1962 (Johnstone and Rivera, 1965). Since then, i n addition to surveys, there has been a p r o l i f e r a t i o n of studies of motivation of participants (Boshier, 1976), and studies of the connections between adult development and p a r t i c i p a t i o n (Weathersby and Tarule, 1980). Much i s known about p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n adult education; what i s less c l e a r i s how much the knowledge helps i n understanding adult p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n higher education. Credit programs, es p e c i a l l y c r e d i t programs i n higher education, create d i f f i c u l t i e s for adult education researchers (Darkenwald and Merriam, 1982). For one thing, t y p i c a l d e f i n i t i o n s of adult used by researchers often exclude f u l l - t i m e students. Many students attending un i v e r s i t y or college f u l l - t i m e would q u a l i f y as adults by another commonly used d e f i n i t i o n : that of having a productive role i n society. In addition, some adults alternate periods of part-time and f u l l - t i m e study. Nonetheless, there i s much to be learned from adult education p a r t i c i p a t i o n studies. P a r t i c i p a t i o n research has 13 unique importance i n a d u l t e d u c a t i o n because of the v o l u n t a r y nature of most a d u l t l e a r n i n g a c t i v i t i e s . While a d u l t l e a r n i n g needs are r e c o g n i z e d as much broader than can be met by the o f f e r i n g s of the formal e d u c a t i o n system, l e t alone h i g h e r e d u c a t i o n f o r a d u l t s , the p o t e n t i a l demand f o r c r e d i t programs i s o f t e n determined from surveys of l e a r n e r s and would-be l e a r n e r s . These surveys d e s c r i b e m i l l i o n s of p o t e n t i a l s t u d e n t s . Surveys of p a r t i c i p a n t s and would-be p a r t i c i p a n t s i n a d u l t e d u c a t i o n (Johnstone and R i v e r a , 1965; Carp, Peterson, and R o e l f s , 1974; Waniewicz, 1976; o t h e r s summarized by Darkenwald and Merriam, 1982) are concerned w i t h much more than l e a r n i n g f o r c r e d i t , but even the estimates of numbers of a d u l t s e x p r e s s i n g i n t e r e s t i n c r e d i t programs r e s u l t i n t o t a l s d e s c r i b e d by Cross (1981, p. 17) as " w i l d l y o p t i m i s t i c . " For example, Carp, Peterson, and R o e l f s (1974) found 78% of the U.S. a d u l t p o p u l a t i o n i n t e r e s t e d i n formal l e a r n i n g , w i t h 12% of these (9% of the p o p u l a t i o n ) i n t e r e s t e d i n l e a r n i n g f o r c r e d i t . Of a l l a c t i v e l e a r n e r s , 5% (2% of the p o p u l a t i o n ) were t a k i n g c r e d i t c o u r s e s . An O n t a r i o survey by Waniewicz (1976) estimated l e a r n e r s and would-be l e a r n e r s t o t o t a l 4 8% of the p o p u l a t i o n . (Undoubtedly some of the other 52% might have been " i n t e r e s t e d i n " l e a r n i n g . ) These s t u d i e s c o n s i s t e n t l y show t h a t l e v e l (years) of e d u c a t i o n i s perhaps the best p r e d i c t o r of p a r t i c i p a t i o n and i n t e r e s t i n f u r t h e r e d u c a t i o n , and t h a t i t i s an even b e t t e r 14 p r e d i c t o r of d e s i r e f o r v o c a t i o n a l / p r o f e s s i o n a l e d u c a t i o n ( r a t h e r than g e n e r a l i n t e r e s t ) , f o r c r e d i t and f o r degrees. The more years of ed u c a t i o n an i n d i v i d u a l has, the more l i k e l y f u r t h e r education w i l l be d e s i r e d . Much of the r e s e a r c h on a d u l t l e a r n i n g i s not r e l e v a n t t o c o n s i d e r a t i o n s of c r e d i t h i g h e r e d u c a t i o n . For i n s t a n c e , the r e s e a r c h on a d u l t l e a r n i n g p r o j e c t s (Tough, 1978) i s sometimes used t o argue f o r d e - f o r m a l i z a t i o n of a d u l t e d u c a t i o n ( B r o o k f i e l d , 1984). S t i l l , v a s t p o t e n t i a l markets can and have been p r o j e c t e d from numbers of a d u l t s engaged i n l e a r n i n g p r o j e c t s ; a d u l t s i n t r a n s i t i o n i n t h e i r p e r s o n a l l i v e s who are, t h e r e f o r e , i n need of l e a r n i n g ( A s l a n i a n and B r i c k e l l , 1980); and a d u l t s f a c i n g developmental ta s k s a t some stage of t h e i r l i f e or some stage of i n t e l l e c t u a l , c o g n i t i v e , e t h i c a l , or ego development (Weathersby and T a r u l e , 1980). While i t i s not c l e a r t h a t these i n d i v i d u a l s i n v o l v e d i n l e a r n i n g p r o j e c t s , t r a n s i t i o n s , or v a r i o u s stages of d i f f e r e n t kinds of development can be a t t r a c t e d t o c r e d i t programs l e t alone h i g h e r e d u c a t i o n , t h e i r l e a r n i n g needs are sometimes i n t e r p r e t e d as o p p o r t u n i t i e s f o r programs. A d u l t development has been recommended as a u n i f y i n g purpose f o r h i g h e r e d u c a t i o n ( C h i c k e r i n g and A s s o c i a t e s , 1981). S t u d i e s of m o t i v a t i o n of p a r t i c i p a n t s i n a d u l t e d u c a t i o n (Burgess, 1971; Bo s h i e r , 1976) have not focused on a d u l t s i n c r e d i t programs and high e r e d u c a t i o n . For 15 example, M o r s t a i n and Smart (1977) used B o s h i e r ' s E d u c a t i o n a l P a r t i c i p a t i o n S c a l e t o analyze m o t i v a t i o n a l o r i e n t a t i o n s ; however, t h e i r survey i n c l u d e s students t a k i n g g e n e r a l i n t e r e s t courses and has a l a r g e number of degree- h o l d e r s ( a t t e n d i n g a community c o l l e g e ) , thus p r e d i s p o s i n g a g r e a t e r response t o E s c a p e / S t i m u l a t i o n and s i m i l a r i n t e r e s t s than might be the case w i t h c r e d i t - c o u r s e students and students s t i l l p u r s u i n g degrees. In g e n e r a l , a d u l t e d u c a t i o n r e s e a r c h e r s have tended t o take an i n d i v i d u a l , r a t h e r than an i n s t i t u t i o n a l , p e r s p e c t i v e — s o m e t i m e s m i l i t a n t l y so. They emphasize removing b a r r i e r s and improving a c c e s s . While a d u l t educators have been concerned w i t h promoting the cause of a d u l t students i n post-secondary e d u c a t i o n (D. Campbell, 1984), the marginal r e l a t i o n s h i p of a d u l t e d u c a t i o n t o many i n s t i t u t i o n s of formal e d u c a t i o n may pr e d i s p o s e a non- i n s t i t u t i o n a l f o c u s . C o n t i n u i n g e d u c a t i o n ( n o n - c r e d i t ) and pa r t - t i m e c r e d i t students are o f t e n grouped although evidence i n d i c a t e s few a d u l t s move from n o n - c r e d i t t o c r e d i t programs ( J . Campbell and o t h e r s , 1984) and t h a t a d u l t s i n c r e d i t programs, p a r t - t i m e or f u l l - t i m e , may have more i n common wit h t r a d i t i o n a l - a g e c r e d i t students (Kuh and A r d a i a o l o , 1979; Shannon, 1986). In any case, i t i s d i f f i c u l t t o make c o n c l u s i o n s about a d u l t s who are pur s u i n g degrees from s t u d i e s of p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n a d u l t l e a r n i n g i n g e n e r a l . A d u l t s i n 16 h i g h e r e d u c a t i o n have been s t u d i e d ; r e s e a r c h on t h i s s p e c i f i c group w i l l be examined a f t e r r e v i e w i n g the l i t e r a t u r e on dropouts from h i g h e r e d u c a t i o n . Dropout Research i n Higher E d u c a t i o n Dropout has been a concern i n a d u l t e d u c a t i o n as w e l l as h i g h e r e d u c a t i o n (Boshier, 1973), but has not been so pronounced. The concern i n a d u l t e d u c a t i o n has most o f t e n been with dropouts from s i n g l e courses r a t h e r than from programs. T h i s s e c t i o n d e a l s w i t h the l i t e r a t u r e on dropouts from h i g h e r e d u c a t i o n , both the more t r a d i t i o n a l s t u d i e s of s h o r t - t e r m dropout and a few s t u d i e s which took a long-term p e r s p e c t i v e . General Dropout S t u d i e s Researchers i n h i g h e r e d u c a t i o n have p l a c e d g r e a t emphasis on dropout r e s e a r c h . Research on dropouts i n h i g h e r e d u c a t i o n has been c a r r i e d on s i n c e a t l e a s t .1913 (Summerskill, 1962). Some of the r e s e a r c h has been concerned w i t h waste of t a l e n t — a l m o s t a s o c i e t a l p e r s p e c t i v e ( I f f e r t , 1958; P e r v i n , 1966), w h i l e more r e c e n t l y the concern has been with i n s t i t u t i o n a l s u r v i v a l i n the face of adverse demographic tre n d s (Bean, 1982a; T i n t o , 1987 ) . The e f f e c t s of s e v e r a l v a r i a b l e s on dropout have been s t u d i e d e x t e n s i v e l y , i n c l u d i n g student and i n s t i t u t i o n a l 17 c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s ( I f f e r t , 1958; Summerskill, 1962; A s t i n , 1975; Pantages and Creedon, 1978; Lenning, B e a l , and Sauer, 1980). In f a c t , a problem has o f t e n been t o s o r t out which are the most important v a r i a b l e s . A s t i n (1975) used 37 v a r i a b l e s t o develop a p r e d i c t i v e equation of dropout u s i n g m u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n . There has been some t h e o r e t i c a l i n t e g r a t i o n i n r e c e n t r e s e a r c h u s i n g models such as Spady's (1971) and T i n t o ' s (1975). Both models emphasize person- environment f i t . An important element i s f a m i l y background, which Spady says a f f e c t s "normative congruence" w i t h h i g h e r e d u c a t i o n . Spady and T i n t o emphasize support systems, and s o c i a l and academic i n t e g r a t i o n . Bean and Metzner (1985) have r e c e n t l y developed a model f o r n o n - t r a d i t i o n a l s t u d e n t s , but t h e i r d e f i n i t i o n of n o n - t r a d i t i o n a l emphasizes commuter s t a t u s more than adulthood. To the extent t h a t dropout r e s e a r c h has anything t o say about them, i t i s not f a v o u r a b l e t o a d u l t s t u d e n t s . The f i n d i n g s on age, while not c o n s i s t e n t , g e n e r a l l y i n d i c a t e t h a t o l d e r students are more l i k e l y t o drop out (Lenning, B e a l , and Sauer, 1980; Pantages and Creedon, 1978). P a r t - time students have a h i g h e r r a t e of dropout ( A s t i n , 1975), and a d u l t s are d i s p r o p o r t i o n a t e l y r e p r e s e n t e d among p a r t - time students ( S t a t i s t i c s Canada, 1986; Cross, 1987). Spady's and T i n t o ' s models emphasize s o c i a l i n t e g r a t i o n , which i s much l e s s l i k e l y f o r p a r t - t i m e students and, i n f a c t , i s l e s s l i k e l y f o r f u l l - t i m e a d u l t s than t r a d i t i o n a l - 18 age students (Kuh and A r d a i o l o , 1979). However, r e s e a r c h based on T i n t o ' s model suggests t h a t academic i n t e g r a t i o n i s much more important than s o c i a l i n t e g r a t i o n (Munro, 1981; P a s c a r e l l a and T e r e n z i n i , 1980). T i n t o ' s model w i l l be co n s i d e r e d f u r t h e r i n the next chapter. Long-term P e r s p e c t i v e i n Dropout Research. Some s t u d i e s from the 1960s i n d i c a t e d t h a t a ten-year time frame f o r dropout r e s e a r c h would change the p e r s p e c t i v e on a number of v a r i a b l e s (Eckland, 1965; P e r v i n , 1966; Jex and M e r r i l l , 1967). A r e c e n t l o n g i t u d i n a l study, based on the T i n t o model, suggests t h a t some f i n d i n g s are more or l e s s confirmed but t h a t d i f f e r e n t v a r i a b l e s best e x p l a i n p e r s i s t e n c e by men compared t o w o m e n — i n s t i t u t i o n a l commitment f o r men; s o c i a l involvement f o r women ( P a s c a r e l l a , Smart, and E t h i n g t o n , 1986). In f a c t , long-range p e r s i s t e n c e may be q u a l i t a t i v e l y d i f f e r e n t from short-term, and the f i n d i n g s from dropout r e s e a r c h based on a short-term focus might not apply. A study of pa r t - t i m e students i n O n t a r i o , many of whom had been students f o r s e v e r a l y e a r s , i n d i c a t e d t h a t they f e l t d ropping out was a p r o b l e m — f o r f i r s t - c o u r s e and f i r s t - y e a r s t u d e n t s — b u t i t d i d not apply t o them (Levy-Coughlin, 1981). The emphasis on v a r i a b l e s might change; f o r example, A s t i n ' s (1975) study of a n a t i o n a l (U.S.) survey concluded t h a t p a r e n t a l income (a s o c i a l c l a s s i n d i c a t o r ) had l i t t l e 19 p r e d i c t i v e v a l u e (p. 35). He d i d not i n c l u d e i t as one of the 37 v a r i a b l e s used i n the r e g r e s s i o n equation f o r p r e d i c t i n g dropout w i t h i n f i v e y e a r s . Longer-range s t u d i e s , such as Eckland's (1965) and P e r v i n ' s (1966) g i v e more emphasis t o s o c i a l c l a s s than d i d A s t i n . T h e i r s t u d i e s i n d i c a t e t h a t students from h i g h e r s o c i a l c l a s s backgrounds are more l i k e l y t o complete degrees i f the time frame i s extended t o ten y e a r s . Some r e c e n t r e s e a r c h suggests t h a t q u a l i t y of high s c h o o l (which may be an i n d i c a t o r of s o c i a l c l a s s ) i s a b e t t e r p r e d i c t o r of p e r s i s t e n c e by a d u l t s than Grade P o i n t Average (Kuh and C r a c r a f t , 1986). Some students do not drop out but stop out, r e t u r n i n g l a t e r t o the same or a d i f f e r e n t i n s t i t u t i o n . They may or may not have intended t o r e t u r n when they l e f t o r i g i n a l l y . Stopping-out has not been s t u d i e d as e x t e n s i v e l y as dropping-out (Cope and Hannah, 1975). When i t has been i n v e s t i g a t e d , t h e r e are i n d i c a t i o n s t h a t r e t u r n i n g students may be even more p e r s i s t e n t than f i r s t - t i m e students ( P e r v i n , 1966). Some of the r e s e a r c h on dropouts i n d i c a t e s the dropouts may be more mature than " s t a y i n s " (Suczek and A l f e r t , 1966). One study found t h a t the lo n g e r i n d i v i d u a l s stayed out, the more improvement i n Grade P o i n t Average they achieved when they r e t u r n e d (Bluhm and Couch, 1972). One might wish t h a t A s t i n ( 1975) had f o l l o w e d up with f u r t h e r study of d i f f e r e n c e s between those dropouts who s t a t e d they expected t o r e t u r n and those who d i d not expect t o r e t u r n . 20 Given t h a t h i s stopouts (those who had l e f t f o r one year only) were i n between p e r s i s t e r s and dropouts (by h i s d e f i n i t i o n again) on many v a r i a b l e s , i t would be reasonable t o expect d i f f e r e n c e s between those dropouts who d i d and those who d i d not expect t o r e t u r n . Stopouts, as d e s c r i b e d by Eck l a n d and P e r v i n , undoubtedly make up a f a i r p r o p o r t i o n of p a r t - t i m e and a d u l t students, e s p e c i a l l y as a m a j o r i t y of a d u l t students i n u n i v e r s i t i e s i n Canada are re t u r n e e s ( P i c o t , 1980). Higher e d u c a t i o n r e s e a r c h e r s have tended more t o take an i n s t i t u t i o n a l , r a t h e r than an i n d i v i d u a l , p e r s p e c t i v e , both i n dropout s t u d i e s and as w i l l be seen i n the next s e c t i o n , s t u d i e s of a d u l t s t u d e n t s . The c o n c l u s i o n s from dropout s t u d i e s appear somewhat l i m i t e d , a c c o r d i n g t o the p o p u l a t i o n sampled, p a r t i c u l a r l y the time-frame used. S t u d i e s based on lon g e r time frames suggest somewhat d i f f e r e n t c o n c l u s i o n s from those r e p o r t e d i n s hort-term s t u d i e s . Research on A d u l t s i n Higher E d u c a t i o n In the years immediately a f t e r World War I I , a d u l t s made up a l a r g e p r o p o r t i o n of students i n h i g h e r e d u c a t i o n but t h a t was a temporary phenomenon and u n i v e r s i t i e s were subsequently p r e - o c c u p i e d w i t h expanding t o meet i n c r e a s e d demand from t r a d i t i o n a l - a g e students (D. Campbell, 1984). The t r e n d t o g r e a t e r p a r t i c i p a t i o n by a d u l t s , and i n t e r e s t 21 i n a d u l t students on the p a r t of h i g h e r e d u c a t i o n r e s e a r c h e r s , i s r e l a t i v e l y r e c e n t . D e s c r i p t i v e and Market S t u d i e s To some extent, the i n t e r e s t i n a d u l t students c o i n c i d e s w i t h the d e c l i n e i n growth of t r a d i t i o n a l - a g e e n rollment and r e f l e c t s an i n s t i t u t i o n a l p e r s p e c t i v e (Cross, 1981). T h i s c o i n c i d e s with an i n c r e a s e i n i n t e r e s t i n marketing by h i g h e r e d u c a t i o n i n s t i t u t i o n s (Barton, 197 8; C o l l e g e Entrance Examination Board, 1980; I h l a n f e l d t , 1980). Some s t u d i e s are l i m i t e d t o p a r t - t i m e students (not always r e s t r i c t e d by age), and some i n c l u d e f u l l - t i m e students of a d u l t age. Surveys of p a r t - t i m e a d u l t students (Solmon and Gordon, 1981; others summarized by Cross, 1981) d e s c r i b e a p o p u l a t i o n which has s h o r t e r , or lower-standard, e d u c a t i o n a l backgrounds than t r a d i t i o n a l - a g e students and i s more r e p r e s e n t a t i v e of the g e n e r a l p o p u l a t i o n i n s o c i a l c l a s s and e t h n i c terms than t r a d i t i o n a l - a g e s t u d e n t s . In f a c t , r e p r e s e n t a t i v e n e s s i s u s u a l l y looked at i n terms of race or sex r a t h e r than s o c i a l c l a s s ; l i m i t e d i n f o r m a t i o n i s a c q u i r e d on s o c i a l c l a s s o r i g i n s and upward s o c i a l m o b i l i t y i s a s c r i b e d on the b a s i s of simply p a r t i c i p a t i n g i n p o s t - secondary e d u c a t i o n . In a d d i t i o n , these surveys are u s u a l l y l i m i t e d i n v a r i o u s ways: t o p a r t - t i m e students; t o f i r s t - y ear students; t o students i n c o n t i n u i n g e d u c a t i o n or i n 22 s p e c i a l a d u l t degree programs (Sharp and Sosdian, 197 9; Cross, 1981). The temptation e x i s t s t o assume t h a t a d u l t students are a "second-chance" or "back-door" group grabbing an o p p o r t u n i t y f o r upward m o b i l i t y p r e v i o u s l y denied them. Pi k e (1975) assumed t h a t p a r t - t i m e students i n O n t a r i o must be mostly students who had not taken academic as opposed t o v o c a t i o n a l p r e p a r a t i o n i n high s c h o o l , on the b a s i s t h a t 7 0% of grade 13 (academic) students i n the p r o v i n c e went immediately t o f u l l - t i m e u n i v e r s i t y study. However, a survey of p a r t - t i m e students i n O n t a r i o i n d i c a t e s t h a t h a l f had been f u l l - t i m e students i n the past (Levy-Coughlin, 1981); t h e i r sample, i n c l u d i n g students a t a l l l e v e l s , suggests a much more wel l - e d u c a t e d group than surveys of f i r s t - y e a r l e v e l students i n the U.S. (Solmon and Gordon, 1981). U n f o r t u n a t e l y , s o c i a l c l a s s o r i g i n data are not a v a i l a b l e on these students, and o c c u p a t i o n a l i n f o r m a t i o n cannot be analyzed t o y i e l d much a d d i t i o n a l i n f o r m a t i o n , e i t h e r , w i t h such c a t e g o r i e s as " p r o f e s s i o n a l - m a n a g e r i a l . " A U.S. study ( l i m i t e d t o one i n s t i t u t i o n ) which i n c l u d e d f u l l - t i m e a d u l t students i n d i c a t e s t h a t i n some r e s p e c t s they may d i f f e r more from p a r t - t i m e a d u l t students than from t r a d i t i o n a l - a g e students (Kuh and A r d a i o l o , 1979). For example, f u l l - t i m e a d u l t s are l e a s t l i k e l y t o a t t e n d u n i v e r s i t y t o get a b e t t e r job, with p a r t - t i m e a d u l t s most motivated by hopes of g e t t i n g a b e t t e r job. In other 23 r e s p e c t s ( f o r example, s o c i a l c l a s s o r i g i n s and p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n e x t r a - c u r r i c u l a r a c t i v i t i e s ) f u l l - t i m e a d u l t students d i f f e r e d more from t r a d i t i o n a l - a g e students than p a r t - t i m e r s . T h e i r study, however, was l i m i t e d t o f i r s t - y e a r students f o r a l l c a t e g o r i e s ( f u l l - t i m e and p a r t - time adult-age students, and t r a d i t i o n a l - a g e s t u d e n t s ) , which can be m i s l e a d i n g i f the i n t e r e s t i s a d u l t students i n g e n e r a l . S t i l l , the study p o i n t s out the f u r t h e r danger of g e n e r a l i z i n g about a l l a d u l t students from s t u d i e s of p a r t - t i m e r s . Some of the r e s e a r c h on a d u l t s d e a l s w i t h t h e i r e x p e r i e n c e as h i g h e r e d u c a t i o n s t u d e n t s . A d u l t s r e g i s t e r d i s p r o p o r t i o n a t e l y i n l i b e r a l a r t s programs but t h i s may be d i c t a t e d by a v a i l a b i l i t y of c o u r s e s . Family members are f r e q u e n t l y c o n s i d e r e d , e s p e c i a l l y i n r e s e a r c h on women r e - e n t e r i n g h i g h e r e d u c a t i o n (Lenz and S h a e v i t z , 1976); a d u l t students e i t h e r u s u a l l y have f a m i l y support, or do not c o n s i d e r i t important ( D a v i l a , 1985). Work r e s p o n s i b i l i t i e s do not seem t o a f f e c t dropout r a t e s ; one study found a d u l t s w i t h many c r e d i t s were more l i k e l y t o be employed f u l l time than a d u l t s w i t h few c r e d i t s ( D a v i l a , 1985). A d u l t students tend t o be unaware or c r i t i c a l of s e r v i c e s ; i n one study, i n e x p e r i e n c e d students made few complaints about c o u n s e l l i n g w h i l e s e n i o r l e v e l students were more d i s s a t i s f i e d ( D a v i l a , 1985), as had been found e a r l i e r by I f f e r t (1958). 24 The marketing impulse behind h i g h e r education's i n t e r e s t i n a d u l t s may r e s u l t i n improved s e r v i c e s t o a d u l t s t u d e n t s . As Cross says, " . . . c o l l e g e s t h a t p l a c e i n s t i t u t i o n a l needs above those of the .adults they are t r y i n g t o a t t r a c t w i l l probably l o s e out i n the long run" (Cross, 1981, p. 38). However, the i n s t i t u t i o n s may be o v e r l y - o p t i m i s t i c about the market. Anderson and Darkenwald (1979b) suggest t h a t n o n - t r a d i t i o n a l age students r e p r e s e n t a narrow base f o r expanding post-secondary e n r o l l m e n t s . They q u e s t i o n the c o n c l u s i o n s or assumptions of some d e s c r i p t i v e s t u d i e s t h a t a d u l t r e c r u i t s t o h i g h e r e d u c a t i o n are a new market, d i f f e r e n t from students the i n s t i t u t i o n s have served i n the p a s t . S o c i o l o g i c a l Research on A d u l t s i n Higher E d u c a t i o n Some of the r e s e a r c h employing a l o n g e r time frame or at l e a s t l o o k i n g at a d u l t s a t more than one l e v e l of p o s t - secondary e d u c a t i o n has a s o c i o l o g i c a l p e r s p e c t i v e . S o c i o l o g i c a l i n v e s t i g a t i o n s of a d u l t students g i v e a somewhat d i f f e r e n t p i c t u r e from the surveys mentioned so f a r (although not i n c o n s i s t e n t w i t h the O n t a r i o survey by Levy- Cou g h l i n , 1981). These d i f f e r e n c e s may be due t o the p o p u l a t i o n s e l e c t e d f o r the study. U n f o r t u n a t e l y , Eckland's U.S. study (1965) and Humphreys and P o r t e r ' s Canadian study (1978) are l i m i t e d t o s i n g l e i n s t i t u t i o n s , w h i l e Hopper and Osborn's U.K. study (1975) was l i m i t e d t o f u l l - t i m e students 25 who had completed degrees. Nonetheless, the f a c t t h a t these s t u d i e s go beyond f i r s t - y e a r students makes them more r e p r e s e n t a t i v e than many surveys, and i n a d d i t i o n they do g i v e us i n f o r m a t i o n about the e f f e c t s of s o c i a l c l a s s and m o b i l i t y on p a r t i c i p a t i o n . Eckland's study (1965) was mentioned i n the d i s c u s s i o n of dropout s t u d i e s but i t i s a l s o r e l e v a n t here because of i t s s o c i o l o g i c a l b a s i s and because of what i t suggests about who at l e a s t some of the o l d e r undergraduates a r e . He shows t h a t expanding the time frame t o ten years changes the p i c t u r e of who competes degrees. While s h o r t - t e r m dropout r a t e s do not seem t o be a f f e c t e d by s o c i a l c l a s s , students of h i g h e r s o c i a l c l a s s o r i g i n are more l i k e l y t o r e t u r n or t r a n s f e r , t h a t i s , t o be stopouts r a t h e r than dropouts. Eckland's r e s e a r c h not o n l y q u e s t i o n s some emphases (or l a c k of emphases) i n h i g h e r e d u c a t i o n dropout r e s e a r c h but a l s o has some r e l e v a n c e t o understanding of a d u l t students, as the l a t e r graduates and r e t u r n e d stopouts would be i n c l u d e d i n t h a t c a t e g o r y . Hopper and Osborn (1975) s t u d i e d a d u l t s at the time of g r a d u a t i o n . They found t h a t these graduates o f t e n had marginal s o c i a l s t a t u s ( d i f f e r e n t from t h e i r parents) and were more o f t e n downwardly mobile than upwardly; p u r s u i t of a degree was o f t e n a t a c t i c t o defend t h e i r d e c l i n i n g s t a t u s . In a d d i t i o n , Hopper and Osborn d e s c r i b e among t h e i r respondents an i n i t i a l "warming-up" to e d u c a t i o n f o l l o w e d 26 by an i n e f f e c t i v e " c o o l i n g - o u t . " In other words, these a d u l t s had had some i n i t i a l success i n e d u c a t i o n or had been s o c i a l i z e d t o r e l a t e success i n l i f e w i t h success i n e d u c a t i o n , even i f they had at some stage dropped out of e d u c a t i o n f o r a w h i l e . They were students who had had e d u c a t i o n a l o p p o r t u n i t i e s , who were not i n any way new t o the system. Humphreys and P o r t e r ' s study (1978) l a r g e l y c o n f i r m s Hopper and Osborn's f i n d i n g s . T h e i r sample of a l l p a r t - t i m e students at C a r l e t o n U n i v e r s i t y i n c l u d e s many of the downwardly mobile i n d i v i d u a l s who have r e t u r n e d t o h i g h e r e d u c a t i o n , and another c a t e g o r y — a s m a l l e r group of upwardly mobile students who have had long c a r e e r s as p a r t - t i m e students and who, i n a d d i t i o n , had a l r e a d y e x h i b i t e d upward m o b i l i t y b e f o r e p u r s u i n g h i g h e r e d u c a t i o n . The authors s p e c i f i c a l l y r e p u d i a t e d the i d e a t h a t p a r t - t i m e study or a d u l t programs are p r i m a r i l y a second chance f o r the e d u c a t i o n a l l y d e p r i v e d . The s o c i o l o g i c a l p e r s p e c t i v e can be found i n a d u l t e d u c a t i o n r e s e a r c h as w e l l , f o r example i n the d i s c u s s i o n of r e c r u i t m e n t of a d u l t s from lower s o c i a l c l a s s backgrounds (see summary i n Cross, 1981). A German study by M u l l e r (1973) suggests t h a t e d u c a t i o n pursued by a d u l t s i n c r e a s e s the c o r r e l a t i o n between p a r e n t a l and o f f s p r i n g s o c i a l c l a s s . Thus, a d u l t e d u c a t i o n may be used t o c o r r e c t downward 27 m o b i l i t y , j u s t as Hopper and Osborn and Humphreys and P o r t e r suggest h i g h e r e d u c a t i o n i s used. S t u d i e s of a d u l t p a r t i c i p a n t s i n post-secondary e d u c a t i o n have produced v a r y i n g c o n c l u s i o n s due, at l e a s t i n p a r t , t o the d i f f e r e n c e s among the samples s e l e c t e d . S t u d i e s of f i r s t - y e a r s tudents, which by t h e i r nature e l i m i n a t e r e t u r n e d stopouts, tend t o i n d i c a t e a p o p u l a t i o n of upwardly mobile students, although t h i s c l a s s i f i c a t i o n i s o f t e n simply a s c r i b e d t o them by the authors without any s u p p o r t i n g evidence. S t u d i e s of p a r t - t i m e students at a l l l e v e l s , a d u l t graduates, and r e t u r n e d stopouts suggest a p o p u l a t i o n which i s as l i k e l y t o be downwardly mobile. O b v i o u s l y , c o n c l u s i o n s based on r e s t r i c t e d samples of a d u l t students have l i m i t e d g e n e r a l i z a b i l i t y . Other Relevant Research A number of r e s e a r c h areas o u t s i d e of a d u l t e d u c a t i o n and h i g h e r e d u c a t i o n c o n t r i b u t e suggestions which may be r e l e v a n t t o the study of a d u l t s i n post-secondary e d u c a t i o n . The f i n d i n g s of Hopper and Osborn (1975), M u l l e r (1973), and others suggest t h a t s o c i a l m o b i l i t y a f f e c t s p a r t i c i p a t i o n by a d u l t s i n h i g h e r e d u c a t i o n . The s o c i a l m o b i l i t y l i t e r a t u r e c o n t a i n s a number of suggestions about the i n t e r a c t i o n of s o c i a l c l a s s and e d u c a t i o n . For example, Sewell and Hauser (1975) i n d i c a t e t h a t s o c i a l c l a s s o r i g i n 2 8 a f f e c t s both educational and occupational outcomes, and education i t s e l f a f f e c t s occupational achievements. Another suggestion comes from the vocational counselling l i t e r a t u r e and indicates that the type of job i t s e l f has e f f e c t s on the value of education to an i n d i v i d u a l (Holland, 1 9 7 3 ; Holland and Gottfredsen, 1 9 7 6 ) . Of the six categories i n Holland's typology of occupations ( 1 9 7 3 ) , s o c i a l occupations accord the most status to education, and only i n s o c i a l and enterprising occupations i s there a strong c o r r e l a t i o n between education and earnings (Gottfredsen, 1 9 8 0 ) . Thus type of job and job environment, as well as l e v e l of job (and what t h i s indicated i n i n d i v i d u a l cases about s o c i a l mobility) may be predictors of p a r t i c i p a t i o n and persistence. Lenning, Beal, and Sauer ( 1 9 8 0 ) have suggested the usefulness of Holland's typology i n dropout research. Summary The bodies of l i t e r a t u r e reviewed h e r e — p a r t i c i p a t i o n research, dropout studies, studies of adults i n higher e d u c a t i o n — a l l tend to have l i m i t e d focuses. Adult education p a r t i c i p a t i o n research usually focuses on non- c r e d i t programs. Higher education dropout research usually takes a short time perspective and tends to emphasize traditional-age students. Studies of adults i n higher education are usually descriptive, are sometimes based on a 29 marketing p e r s p e c t i v e , and are o f t e n l i m i t e d t o narrow p o p u l a t i o n s , such as f i r s t - y e a r or s p e c i a l program s t u d e n t s . Two s m a l l e r s u b - c a t e g o r i e s of the l i t e r a t u r e have g r e a t e r i n s i g h t s t o o f f e r f o r understanding the problem of long-term p e r s i s t e n c e by a d u l t s . In a d d i t i o n , they p o i n t out some of the l i m i t a t i o n s of the other r e s e a r c h . Dropout s t u d i e s based on a l o n g e r time frame, u s u a l l y t e n y e a r s , suggest t h a t some c o n c l u s i o n s of other dropout r e s e a r c h may be q u e s t i o n a b l e and a l s o suggest t h a t a t l e a s t some a d u l t students must be r e t u r n e d s t o p o u t s . A few s t u d i e s of a d u l t s i n h i g h e r e d u c a t i o n from a s o c i o l o g i c a l p e r s p e c t i v e p o i n t out the dangers of making c o n c l u s i o n s from s p e c u l a t i o n and from s t u d i e s based on narrow p o p u l a t i o n s . While i t may be p o s s i b l e t o f i n d v a r i a b l e s and concepts r e l e v a n t t o a d u l t s i n high e r e d u c a t i o n i n a number of sources, t h e r e i s s t i l l much t o be l e a r n e d from a p p l y i n g i d e a s from a d u l t e d u c a t i o n and high e r e d u c a t i o n even though these r e s e a r c h areas have not focused s p e c i f i c a l l y on the problems of p a r t i c i p a t i o n and p e r s i s t e n c e over a long term by a d u l t s i n high e r e d u c a t i o n . In the next chapter, a co n c e p t u a l framework w i l l be developed combining p a r t i - c i p a t i o n and dropout c o n s i d e r a t i o n s . 30 CHAPTER 3 CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK FOR THE STUDY OF LONG-RANGE PARTICIPATION AND PERSISTENCE I n t r o d u c t i o n T h i s chapter extends the review of the l i t e r a t u r e , i n i t s d i s c u s s i o n of models of a d u l t p a r t i c i p a t i o n and hi g h e r e d u c a t i o n dropout. From two better-known models, the elements which would be emphasized i n long-term p a r t i c i p a t i o n by a d u l t s i n high e r e d u c a t i o n are suggested, f i r s t i n a s i m p l i f i e d model and then i n an e l a b o r a t e d v e r s i o n which i n c o r p o r a t e s v a r i a b l e s used i n the r e s e a r c h t o be d e s c r i b e d i n l a t e r c h a p t e r s . A d i s t i n c t i o n i s made between a d u l t students who s t a r t e d t h e i r u n i v e r s i t y e d u c a t i o n as t r a d i t i o n a l - a g e students (Re-entry students) and those who s t a r t e d as a d u l t s (Adult E n t r y s t u d e n t s ) . I n c o r p o r a t i n g t h i s d i s t i n c t i o n , and two a d d i t i o n a l c a t e g o r i e s of s p e c i f i c v a r i a b l e s , the s i m p l i f i e d model i s e l a b o r a t e d i n t o the model which i s used to develop the hypotheses which f o l l o w . A f t e r the d i s c u s s i o n of the i n i t i a l h y p o t h e s i s about the d i f f e r e n c e i n p e r s i s t e n c e between the two groups of a d u l t students, a d d i t i o n a l hypotheses are o r g a n i z e d i n t o 31 those i n v o l v i n g background c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s and those i n v o l v i n g p a r t i c i p a t i o n f a c t o r s , as suggested by the model. S i x hypotheses are presented i n v o l v i n g the e f f e c t s of d i f f e r e n t v a r i a b l e s on p e r s i s t e n c e by a d u l t s t u d e n t s . F o l l o w i n g the p r e s e n t a t i o n of the hypotheses, a b r i e f chapter summary i s p r o v i d e d . Models of P a r t i c i p a t i o n and Dropout As mentioned p r e v i o u s l y , two models from the l i t e r a t u r e are r e l e v a n t to long-term p e r s i s t e n c e by a d u l t s . These are Cross's model of a d u l t p a r t i c i p a t i o n and T i n t o ' s model of dropout from hi g h e r e d u c a t i o n . T h i s s e c t i o n d e a l s w i t h these models and how they have been adapted f o r t h i s study. The Cross Model of A d u l t P a r t i c i p a t i o n The Cross model has not been used as e x t e n s i v e l y i n a d u l t e d u c a t i o n as the T i n t o model has been i n h i g h e r e d u c a t i o n dropout r e s e a r c h . In f a c t , no p a r t i c i p a t i o n model has been wi d e l y adopted. There has been c o n s i d e r a b l e r e s e a r c h based on the typology of a d u l t l e a r n e r s developed by Houle (1961). T h i s e x t e n s i v e m o t i v a t i o n a l o r i e n t a t i o n s r e s e a r c h (Burgess, 1971; B o s h i e r , 1976; B o s h i e r and C o l l i n s , 1985) has not focused g e n e r a l l y on what happens t o a d u l t l e a r n e r s w i t h v a r i o u s m o t i v a t i o n s f o r p a r t i c i p a t i o n ( B o shier and C o l l i n s , 1985). Development of p r e d i c t i v e models based 32 on m o t i v a t i o n a l o r i e n t a t i o n s has been suggested (Rogers, G i l l e l a n d , and Dixon, 1988). However, p a r t i c i p a t i o n models are an ongoing i n t e r e s t i n a d u l t e d u c a t i o n ( f o r example, Darkenwald and Merriam, 1982; Cookson, 1986); t h i s i n t e r e s t i s i n p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n a d u l t e d u c a t i o n i n g e n e r a l , not j u s t i n h i g h e r e d u c a t i o n or even c r e d i t programs. A number of the models of p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n a d u l t e d u c a t i o n l i t e r a t u r e have been summarized by Cross (1981, p. 109-124). The model s y n t h e s i z e d by Cross h e r s e l f (1981, p. 124) i s of some i n t e r e s t t o r e s e a r c h e r s d e a l i n g w i t h a d u l t s i n h i g h e r e d u c a t i o n (Kuh and C r a c r a f t , 1986). Cross's Chain-of-Response model (see F i g u r e 1) i n c l u d e d s i x groups of v a r i a b l e s which would a f f e c t an a d u l t d e c i d i n g t o take a course. The model can be adapted t o c o n s i d e r a t i o n of long-term p e r s i s t e n c e with emphasis on f r o n t - e n d or l o n g - term v a r i a b l e s (A,B,C) r a t h e r than s h o r t - t e r m or immediate f a c t o r s (D,E,F) and on the feedback loop i t s e l f — p a r t i c i p a t i o n a f f e c t i n g , e s p e c i a l l y , a t t i t u d e s t o e d u c a t i o n . The feedback loop c o u l d p r o v i d e a way of l o o k i n g at c o n t i n u i n g p a r t i c i p a t i o n and perhaps, e v e n t u a l l y , long-term p a r t i c i p a t i o n . Long-term p e r s i s t e r s w i l l have had a f a i r amount of experience with e d u c a t i o n and, probably, w i l l have e s t a b l i s h e d e d u c a t i o n a l g o a l s . A c c o r d i n g to Hopper and Osborn (1975), they w i l l have been "warmed-up" t o e d u c a t i o n 33 FIGURE 1: CROSS'S MODEL OF ADULT PARTICIPATION, (CROSS, 1981) ( D ) Life transitions (A) Self-evaluation A Importance of goals and expectation Uiat participation will meet goals '(C) Attitudes about cduca tiou (F) lnfonnatiou Opportunities and barriers (E) (G) Participation' because of past experience. One might, therefore, expect that the adults most likely to return to education, i f they had dropped out in the past, could be distinguished from dropouts who do not return by already-established differences in attitudes to education and perceptions of the relevance of education. In any case, information and barriers, and perhaps demands arising from l i f e transitions, would have more effect on enrollment at specific times than on long-range participation, so for purposes of this investigation the emphasis is on t.he input or long-term elements of the model (A, B, and C). 34 Even i f the study were l i m i t e d t o those who may have s t a r t e d t h e i r e ducation as a d u l t s , i t might be expected t h a t d i f f e r e n c e s i n e d u c a t i o n a l experience and goals c o u l d be used to p r e d i c t those more or l e s s l i k e l y t o c o n t i n u e t o p a r t i c i p a t e f o r a number of courses and y e a r s . P a r t i c i p a t i o n models are s p e c i f i c a l l y i n t e n d e d t o d e s c r i b e a d u l t behavior and thus should p r o v i d e some i n s i g h t f o r a study of long-term p e r s i s t e n c e , which i s ongoing p a r t i c i p a t i o n . The Cross model, compared t o o t h e r s from a d u l t e d u c a t i o n , some of which (Cookson, 1986) are too g e n e r a l , focuses more on c r e d i t and h i g h e r e d u c a t i o n . I t should be h e l p f u l i n understanding degree-seeking behavior by a d u l t s . The T i n t o Model of Dropout from Higher E d u c a t i o n There are a number of models of a t t r i t i o n i n h i g h e r e d u c a t i o n . S e v e r a l of these, i n c l u d i n g the T i n t o model, (1975) and i t s predecessor the Spady model, are summarized by Lenning, B e a l , and Sauer, 1980, pp. 43-49. The T i n t o model cont i n u e s t o be u t i l i z e d f r e q u e n t l y (Weidman, 1985; P a s c a r e l l a , Smart, and E t h i n g t o n , 1986). A r e c e n t model by Bean (1982a,b; a l s o Bean and Metzner, 1985) has a high e x p l a n a t i o n of v a r i a n c e , but depends f o r most of t h a t on " i n t e n t t o l e a v e " (measured i n the s p r i n g w i t h r e - enrollment/non-enrollment checked i n the f a l l ) , which c o u l d 35 almost be considered a dependent v a r i a b l e ; c e r t a i n l y i t i s not a very u s e f u l v a r i a b l e f o r long-range p r e d i c t i o n s . T i n t o ' s model (Figure 2) has been t e s t e d f a i r l y e x t e n s i v e l y . A common f i n d i n g i s th a t academic i n t e g r a t i o n (often measured as involvements with academic s t a f f outside of c l a s s ) i s more important i n r e t e n t i o n than s o c i a l i n t e g r a t i o n (involvement with other students) (Munro, 1981; ' FIGURE 2: TINTO'S MODEL OF ATTRITION. (TINTO, 1975) C o m m i t m e n t s Academic System Commi tmen t s Fami ly llucktrruund n Grade Performance Individual A l Iriliutes I ' M - Colk'go St'linuiilig "1 I I I Goat C o m m i t m e n t I n s t i t u t i ona l Co in in i t i nen t r — I I Intellectual | J^""'"! Development | I LlJ_. 1 | " j " i n — i . | Peer-Group j iiteractious I Focul ty I Interactions I Social System Academic in t eg ra t ion I > Social In tegra t ion - 1 I r "71 Goal Commi tment Ins t i tu t iona l Commi tmen t Dropout Decisions 36 Pascarella and Terenzini, 1980). Tinto's 1975 model i s the basis for research by Pascarella and several others. Their emphasis on academic integration and on f a c u l t y / s t a f f interactions as a means of academic integration i s incorporated i n Tinto's modification of the model (Tinto, 1987) which moves f a c u l t y / s t a f f interactions from the s o c i a l to the academic system. Other changes include some to the wording (for example, " S k i l l s and A b i l i t i e s " instead of "Individual Attributes") and the addition of "External Commitments" to the Commitments at Time 2 (the right-hand end, just before dropout). Adaptation of the Tinto model to adult students w i l l probably r e s u l t i n greater emphasis on the input elements than on the intervening variables. Adult students are not as l i k e l y to integrate s o c i a l l y as traditional-age students are, e s p e c i a l l y i f most of the students are t r a d i t i o n a l age. Adults are more l i k e l y to have outside commitments to famil i e s , jobs, even s o c i a l a c t i v i t i e s (Tinto, 1987). Likewise, part-time students may not be as l i k e l y to have as much academic integration as f u l l - t i m e r s . Therefore, given that these e f f e c t s are reduced or even absent, ;the emphasis would have to be placed on the background c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s , on the input end of the model (as with the Cross model on p a r t i c i p a t i o n ) . Even i n s t i t u t i o n a l commitment i s less l i k e l y to be a factor, e s p e c i a l l y for part-time students, as commuting distance l i m i t s choices severely for adults, 37 e s p e c i a l l y p a r t - t i m e s t u d e n t s . Family background and p r e - c o l l e g e s c h o o l i n g would probably account f o r much more of the v a r i a t i o n i n long-range p e r s i s t e n c e v s . dropout, when a p p l y i n g the T i n t o model wi t h a d u l t students than i n s t u d i e s of dropout among t r a d i t i o n a l - a g e students, because of the reduced e f f e c t of i n t e r v e n i n g v a r i a b l e s . The element of e x t e r n a l commitments i n T i n t o ' s 1987 model does add something of importance f o r a d u l t s , whose job and f a m i l y s i t u a t i o n s are l i k e l y t o be more complex than they are f o r t r a d i t i o n a l - a g e s t u d e n t s . However, the model s t i l l emphasizes g o a l and i n s t i t u t i o n a l commitment as more important than e x t e r n a l commitments (1987, p. 105-106). Higher edu c a t i o n dropout models r e p r e s e n t attempts t o develop t h e o r e t i c a l f o r m u l a t i o n s of the phenomenon. The T i n t o model has been one of the more wi d e l y a p p l i e d . However, i t has been found t h a t the model works l e s s w e l l i n some s e t t i n g s , f o r example two-year c o l l e g e s ( P a s c a r e l l a and Chapman, 1983). An e f f o r t t o use the model i n a long-term study i n d i c a t e s t h a t d i f f e r e n t models may be r e q u i r e d f o r men and women ( P a s c a r e l l a , Smart, and E t h i n g t o n , 1986). Rather than a p p l i c a t i o n s of the same model t o d i f f e r e n t s i t u a t i o n s , what may be r e q u i r e d i s a d a p t a t i o n , or even development of a new model (or s e v e r a l models f o r d i f f e r e n t s i t u a t i o n s ) . Bean and Metzner (1985) suggest t h a t the T i n t o model i s o n l y a p p r o p r i a t e f o r t r a d i t i o n a l students i n r e s i d e n t i a l 38 f o u r - y e a r c o l l e g e s ( u n i v e r s i t i e s i n Canada). T h e i r a d a p t a t i o n of Bean's 1982 model f o r n o n - t r a d i t i o n a l students s t i l l c o n t a i n s the element of "Intent t o Leave" which a p p l i e s s p e c i f i c a l l y t o short-term ( c o n s e c u t i v e year) dropout s t u d i e s . In a d d i t i o n , t h e i r d e f i n i t i o n of non- t r a d i t i o n a l emphasizes commuter s t a t u s and i n c l u d e s age o n l y as a p o s s i b l e , not a necessary, c h a r a c t e r i s t i c . They do, however, suggest t h a t e x t e r n a l v a r i a b l e s ( s i m i l a r t o T i n t o ' s e x t e r n a l commitments) are more important w i t h non- t r a d i t i o n a l students than academic v a r i a b l e s . A Model of Long-term P e r s i s t e n c e by A d u l t s In the d i s c u s s i o n of the Cross and T i n t o models i t was c l e a r t h a t a p p l y i n g the models t o long-term c o n s i d e r a t i o n s r e s u l t s i n emphasis on the i n p u t elements of the models. Under these circumstances, i t would seem t h a t t h e r e are, perhaps, not many i n t e r v e n i n g v a r i a b l e s , except the q u a l i t y of the experience i t s e l f , when c o n s i d e r i n g long-range p e r s i s t e n c e by a d u l t s . What i s l e f t i s a simple model l i k e F i g u r e 3. T h i s i s not to suggest t h a t the s p e c i f i c elements from the Cross and T i n t o models such as a t t i t u d e s , g o a l s , and f a m i l y background should be dropped. They are important and some of them w i l l be added l a t e r (see F i g u r e 4 ) . What i s argued here i s a s i m p l i f i c a t i o n of the s t r u c t u r e of the model 39 FIGURE 3: SIMPLIFIED MODEL OF FACTORS AFFECTING LONG-RANGE PERSISTENCE Background P e r s i s t e n c e F a c t o r s f o r long-term c o n s i d e r a t i o n s , a t l e a s t as some degree of g e n e r a l i t y i s d e s i r e d . F a c t o r s which may i n f l u e n c e model enrollment/non-enrollment d e c i s i o n s a t s p e c i f i c times may not be as important i n a long-term model. The emphasis i n the f i g u r e i s on the i n p u t elements o r background c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s which a f f e c t p e r s i s t e n c e d i r e c t l y as w e l l as i n d i r e c t l y through t h e i r i n f l u e n c e on p a r t i c i p a t i o n f a c t o r s . The way i n d i v i d u a l s respond t o the experience of being students i s a f f e c t e d by background c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . For a d u l t students, one f a c t o r which can be c o n s i d e r e d as a p a r t of t h e i r background i s whether or not they had f i r s t e n r o l l e d as t r a d i t i o n a l - a g e s t u d e n t s . In t h i s r e s e a r c h , those a d u l t s who had p r e v i o u s l y e n r o l l e d at age 24 or younger are c l a s s e d as Re-entry students, w h i l e those who 40 had never e n r o l l e d b e f o r e age 25 are c l a s s e d as A d u l t E n t r y s t u d e n t s . I f the v a r i a b l e of i n t e r e s t were p a r t i c i p a t i o n o n l y , a p o p u l a t i o n of a d u l t students i n post-secondary c r e d i t programs might be more r e p r e s e n t a t i v e of the p o p u l a t i o n i n g e n e r a l than are t r a d i t i o n a l - a g e s t u d e n t s . However, as was seen i n the review of the l i t e r a t u r e , when the focus i s on long-term p e r s i s t e n c e , the p o p u l a t i o n of i n t e r e s t changes from newly r e c r u i t e d a d u l t s i n h i g h e r e d u c a t i o n t o a group more l i k e t r a d i t i o n a l - a g e students i n many r e s p e c t s , as the a d u l t s approach completion of degrees. In other words, e x c l u d i n g f i r s t - y e a r students and those simply t a k i n g one or two s p e c i f i c c ourses, the remaining a d u l t students may be a very " t r a d i t i o n a l " group, i n terms of t h i n g s l i k e s o c i a l c l a s s of o r i g i n , e d u c a t i o n of f a m i l y members (parents, s i b l i n g s ) , v o c a t i o n a l experience and g o a l s , and a t t i t u d e and e x p e c t a t i o n s about e d u c a t i o n . In a d d i t i o n , many of them (Re-entry students) had been t r a d i t i o n a l - a g e u n i v e r s i t y s t u d e n t s . These d i f f e r e n c e s , r e l a t e d t o d i f f e r e n c e s i n p o p u l a t i o n s s e l e c t e d f o r study, as d i s c u s s e d i n Chapter 2, are shown i n Table 1. T h i s i s a study of a p o p u l a t i o n from a l l years of u n i v e r s i t y , not j u s t the f i r s t - y e a r s t u d e n t s . 41 TABLE 1: HYPOTHESIZED DIFFERENCES RELATED TO POPULATIONS SAMPLED AND TO LONG-TERM PERSISTENCE A d u l t Student P o p u l a t i o n s Sampled F i r s t year A l l years Graduates mostly A d u l t E n t r y , "new" students A d u l t E n t r y and Re-entry mostly Re-entry, " t r a d i t i o n a l " except i n age In a d d i t i o n t o the c a t e g o r i z a t i o n of Re-entry and A d u l t E n t r y students, other v a r i a b l e s which may a f f e c t p e r s i s t e n c e can be s p e c i f i e d . Background c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s such as s o c i a l c l a s s and the e d u c a t i o n a l experience of f a m i l y members may i n f l u e n c e whether or not an i n d i v i d u a l proceeds t o u n i v e r s i t y as a t r a d i t i o n a l - a g e student. These c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s may a l s o a f f e c t how a student adapts t o a u n i v e r s i t y environment, thus i n f l u e n c i n g the response t o p a r t i c i p a t i o n f a c t o r s . In a d d i t i o n , these background c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s may have a d i r e c t e f f e c t on p e r s i s t e n c e , as the importance of completing a degree c o u l d be i n f l u e n c e d by such f a c t o r s as time of d e c i s i o n , degree a s p i r a t i o n (an i n d i c a t o r of g o a l commitment), f a m i l y experience w i t h h i g h e r e d u c a t i o n , and s o c i a l c l a s s and m o b i l i t y . 42 F a c t o r s i n f l u e n c i n g how an i n d i v i d u a l responds t o the experience of being a student i n c l u d e support or l a c k of i t from f a m i l y , employers, and o t h e r s ; problems of v a r i o u s kinds and a b i l i t y t o cope wi t h them; and s a t i s f a c t i o n w i t h v a r i o u s aspects of student l i f e . These p a r t i c i p a t i o n f a c t o r s are hypothesized t o a f f e c t p e r s i s t e n c e and are themselves a f f e c t e d by background c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . In p a r t i c u l a r , Re-entry students and A d u l t E n t r y students may respond d i f f e r e n t l y t o p a r t i c i p a t i o n f a c t o r s , w i t h the pr e v i o u s experience of Re-entry students i n hig h e r e d u c a t i o n c o n t r i b u t i n g t o g r e a t e r p e r s i s t e n c e . F i g u r e 4 i s an e l a b o r a t i o n of F i g u r e 3, i n c o r p o r a t i n g the Re-entry/Adult E n t r y d i s t i n c t i o n and l i s t i n g background c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s and p a r t i c i p a t i o n f a c t o r s . The same r e l a t i o n s h i p s e x i s t i n F i g u r e 4 as o u t l i n e d i n the s i m p l i f i e d model i n F i g u r e 3. Background c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s i n f l u e n c e p e r s i s t e n c e d i r e c t l y and i n d i r e c t l y . The major a d d i t i o n shown i n F i g u r e 4 i s the Re- e n t r y / A d u l t E n t r y c a t e g o r i z a t i o n , which i s expected t o a f f e c t response t o p a r t i c i p a t i o n f a c t o r s , as an element separate from background c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . The same background c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s which r e s u l t i n i n d i v i d u a l s b e i n g more l i k e l y t o s t a r t t h e i r post-secondary e d u c a t i o n as F I G U R E 4 : M O D E L O F L O N G - R A N G E P E R S I S T E N C E B Y R E - E N T R Y A N D A D U L T E N T R Y A D U L T S T U D E N T S Enrollment as traditional-age PARTICIPATION FACTORS - support - problems - satisfaction 44 t r a d i t i o n a l - a g e students w i l l a f f e c t t h e i r p e r s i s t e n c e d i r e c t l y . P a r t i c i p a t i o n f a c t o r s are t r e a t e d as i n t e r v e n i n g v a r i a b l e s i n the model. The e f f e c t of background c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s i s d e a l t with through the Re-entry/Adult E n t r y c a t e g o r i z a t i o n . The hypotheses which f o l l o w are based on the r e l a t i o n s h i p s suggested by the model. Numbers on the arrows correspond t o h y p othesis numbers, i n d i c a t i n g the e f f e c t s which are d e s c r i b e d i n the hypotheses. Hypotheses In t h i s and the p r e v i o u s chapter, v a r i a b l e s r e l a t e d t o p a r t i c i p a t i o n and p e r s i s t e n c e were i d e n t i f i e d . Hypotheses can be suggested u s i n g these as independent v a r i a b l e s w i t h p e r s i s t e n c e t o degree-completion as the dependent v a r i a b l e . (They are grouped i n t h i s s e c t i o n a c c o r d i n g t o the model i n F i g u r e 4 ) . A f t e r the p r e s e n t a t i o n of the i n i t i a l h y p o t h e s i s on the Re-entry/Adult E n t r y d i s t i n c t i o n , t h r e e hypotheses based on background c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s are s t a t e d , which connect these v a r i a b l e s d i r e c t l y t o degree-completion. Two a d d i t i o n a l hypotheses d e a l w i t h p a r t i c i p a t i o n f a c t o r s as p o s s i b l e i n t e r v e n i n g v a r i a b l e s . A d u l t E n t r y vs. Re-entry. The ten-year dropout s t u d i e s (Eckland, 1964; P e r v i n , 1966; Jex and M e r r i l l , 1967) suggest t h a t many a d u l t 45 students were i n post-secondary education as traditional-age students. It would seem reasonable that t h i s educational experience would be an advantage, i n that they would have knowledge of the higher education environment based on t h e i r d i r e c t experience. Hypothesis 1: Re-entry students are more l i k e l y to p e r s i s t to degree completion than Adult Entry students. It i s , i n any case, worthwhile to compare the two groups of adult students: those who had been traditional-age students (Re-entry) and those who had started as adults (Adult Entry). Former traditional-age students have been i d e n t i f i e d as a large proportion of adult students i n higher education, although research has tended to emphasize new students. This i s a key hypothesis. While some differences are expected between Re-entry and Adult Entry students i n background c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s , most of these variables a f f e c t persistence d i r e c t l y , independent of t h e i r r e l a t i o n s h i p to the Re-entry/Adult Entry categories. However, the hypotheses on p a r t i c i p a t i o n factors (Hypotheses 5 and 6) deal with the effects of intervening variables on the persistence of the two categories, Adult Entry and Re-entry students. 46 Background Characteristics Educational experience, including postsecondary experience; time of decision and degree aspi r a t i o n (which may be indicators of attitude to education); a hist o r y of family p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n education; and s o c i a l mobility have a l l been related to persistence to varying degrees i n previous research. As discussed i n the previous chapter, s o c i a l mobility may be more strongly related to long-term persistence than i t i s to persistence i n the short-term. In the previous discussion of models, i t was suggested that these background c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s may be generally more important i n long-term persistence than the intervening variables suggested i n models l i k e those of Cross and Tinto. As shown i n the model (Figure 4), background c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s have some e f f e c t on whether or not an in d i v i d u a l e n r o l l s as a traditional-age student. The same c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s which r e s u l t i n greater l i k e l i h o o d of an in d i v i d u a l e n r o l l i n g i n post-secondary education as a traditional-age student are expected to encourage persistence to degree-completion. As enrollment as a traditional-age student categorizes an adult as Re-entry and therefore more l i k e l y to p e r s i s t (Hypothesis 1), the hypotheses i n t h i s section deal with the d i r e c t e f f e c t s of background c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s on persistence. 47 Time of D e c i s i o n . W i t h i n the Re-entry and A d u l t E n t r y c a t e g o r i e s p e r s i s t e n c e can be p r e d i c t e d from the l e n g t h of time post-secondary p a r t i c i p a t i o n and p a r t i c u l a r l y degree- completion have been d e f i n i t e l y planned. Surveys of dropouts i n d i c a t e t h a t some i n t e n d t o r e t u r n and some do not ( A s t i n , 1975). Those Re-entry students who had p e r c e i v e d themselves as dropouts might be more t e n t a t i v e about r e t u r n i n g , and l e s s l i k e l y t o complete a degree than those who had p e r c e i v e d t h e i r departure from post-secondary e d u c a t i o n as d e f i n i t e l y temporary. A d u l t E n t r y students who had planned f o r a long time t o a t t e n d c o l l e g e or u n i v e r s i t y and get a degree would be more l i k e l y t o p e r s i s t as students than those whose d e c i s i o n s t o e n r o l l were more r e c e n t . Hypothesis 2: The longer a d u l t students have planned t o complete degrees and the f a r t h e r they planned t o go with t h e i r e d u c a t i o n , the more l i k e l y they are t o p e r s i s t t o degrees. More s p e c i f i c a l l y : (a) The e a r l i e r t h a t a d u l t students made t h e i r d e c i s i o n t o pursue e d u c a t i o n beyond secondary s c h o o l , the more l i k e l y they are t o complete degrees, even as a d u l t s t u d e n t s . (b) Re-entry students w i l l be more l i k e l y t o complete i f they had intended t o r e t u r n when they l e f t post-secondary e d u c a t i o n as t r a d i t i o n a l - a g e students than i f they were u n c e r t a i n or had p e r c e i v e d themselves as dropouts at t h a t time. (c) A d u l t E n t r y students w i l l more l i k e l y complete degrees i f a t t e n d i n g a c o l l e g e or u n i v e r s i t y was f u l f i l l m e n t of a long-time 48 ambition than i f t h e i r d e c i s i o n t o a t t e n d was r e c e n t . Time of d e c i s i o n [2(a)] can apply t o any post-secondary students: t r a d i t i o n a l - a g e students or a d u l t s t u d e n t s . The other p a r t s of the hypothesis are expected t o d i f f e r e n t i a t e degree-completers from non-completers w i t h i n the A d u l t E n t r y and Re-entry groups. A l l p a r t s of the hypothesis are r e l a t e d t o the l e n g t h of time h i g h e r e d u c a t i o n has been p a r t of an i n d i v i d u a l ' s l i f e p l a n . Old plans are more l i k e l y t o c o n t r i b u t e t o p e r s i s t e n c e than new p l a n s . Family E d u c a t i o n a l Background:Degree A s p i r a t i o n . Other i n p u t f a c t o r s w i l l be r e l a t e d t o p e r s i s t e n c e . Family e d u c a t i o n a l background and degree a s p i r a t i o n have been a s s o c i a t e d with p e r s i s t e n c e i n other r e s e a r c h . Family background i s p a r t of the T i n t o model and c o u l d be a source of a t t i t u d e s about edu c a t i o n i n the Cross model. Degree a s p i r a t i o n has been connected w i t h degree completion i n other r e s e a r c h (Lenning, B e a l , and Sauer, 1980; Bean and Metzner, 1985) and c o u l d be c o n s i d e r e d a measure of go a l commitment i n the Cross and T i n t o models. These v a r i a b l e s may be more or l e s s important than they have been found i n dropout or p a r t i c i p a t i o n r e s e a r c h , but they w i l l s t i l l have e f f e c t . Hypothesis 3: A d u l t s who p e r s i s t i n post-secondary e d u c a t i o n t o completion of degrees, as opposed t o 49 adult participants i n higher education who do not complete degrees w i l l (a) more l i k e l y have family members with advanced education, (b) more frequently have planned to pursue advanced degrees, when they started post- secondary education. The hypothesis could also be applied to traditional-age students: i t i s , i n fact, expected that persistent adult students w i l l be more l i k e traditional-age s t u d e n t s — p a r t i c u l a r l y those with c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s associated with degree-completion among that age group—than they w i l l be l i k e adult non-persisters. They are not r e a l l y "new" to higher education. Social Class/Mobility. The emphasis so f a r has been on attempting to d i f f e r e n t i a t e from among a l l adult students those who are most l i k e l y to p e r s i s t to degree completion. However, s i m i l a r i t i e s among participants are also expected, p a r t i a l l y accounting for the decision to p a r t i c i p a t e i n the f i r s t place. These s i m i l a r i t i e s between p e r s i s t e r s and non- persis t e r s w i l l have more to do with enrollment than persistence. For example, anomalous or marginal s o c i a l status (Hopper and Osborn, 1975, p. 13, 125-126, d e f i n i t i o n of marginality) i s expected to be common to both groups. However, i t i s expected that the newer students, the ones less l i k e l y to p e r s i s t , w i l l more l i k e l y be upwardly mobile, while more of the other students w i l l be downwardly mobile. 50 M a i n t a i n i n g s t a t u s , or c o r r e c t i n g f o r d e c l i n e i n s t a t u s was an i m p o r t a n t m o t i v a t o r among the d e g r e e - c o m p l e t i n g a d u l t s s t u d i e d by Hopper and Osborn (1975). E c k l a n d (1965) found t h a t s tudent s from h i g h e r c l a s s f a m i l i e s were more l i k e l y to r e t u r n to h i g h e r e d u c a t i o n a f t e r l e a v i n g . Hypothes i s 4: There w i l l be a h i g h e r p r o p o r t i o n o f i n d i v i d u a l s downwardly m o b i l e i n s o c i a l c l a s s among a d u l t s who p e r s i s t t o degrees than among n o n - p e r s i s t e r s . There w i l l be a h i g h e r p r o p o r t i o n of upwardly mobi l e i n d i v i d u a l s among non- p e r s i s t i n g a d u l t s than p e r s i s t e r s ( m o b i l i t y by comparison t o the c l a s s o f f a m i l y of o r i g i n ) . I n d i v i d u a l s from h i g h e r s o c i a l c l a s s e s w i l l be more l i k e l y t o have had f a m i l y members pursue h i g h e r e d u c a t i o n and w i l l , t h e r e f o r e , have more u n d e r s t a n d i n g o f the b e n e f i t s o f e d u c a t i o n . They may a l s o be more i n c l i n e d t o t a k e some a c t i o n , i n c l u d i n g e d u c a t i o n a l , t o change t h e i r c u r r e n t s t a t u s . On the o t h e r hand, upwardly mobi l e i n d i v i d u a l s may expect more immediate p a y o f f from c o u r s e s and thus have l e s s p a t i e n c e f o r the l o n g g r i n d t o a d e g r e e . They may, i n f a c t , be too busy to pursue t h e i r e d u c a t i o n o r s u f f i c i e n t l y s a t i s f i e d w i t h t h e i r s t a t u s not t o p e r c e i v e a need t o do a n y t h i n g about i t . 51 Hypotheses 2 to 4 d e a l with v a r i a b l e s which are expected t o have d i r e c t e f f e c t on p e r s i s t e n c e , as shown by the arrow from background c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s t o p e r s i s t e n c e i n F i g u r e s 3 and 4. These background c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s w i l l a l s o have some e f f e c t on a d u l t students' response t o t h e i r e xperience i n higher education, t r e a t e d here through the Re- e n t r y / A d u l t E n t r y d i s t i n c t i o n . Table 2 i s a summary of the hypotheses i n the form of expected d i f f e r e n c e s between degree-completers and non-completers i n background c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . P a r t i c i p a t i o n F a c t o r s While the emphasis i n the model ( F i g u r e 4) i s on the e f f e c t s of background c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s , the experience i t s e l f — w h a t happens t o a d u l t students when they p a r t i c i p a t e as s t u d e n t s — i s expected t o have some e f f e c t on p e r s i s t e n c e . A d u l t E n t r y and Re-entry students may have d i f f e r e n t e x p e c t a t i o n s and r e a c t i n d i f f e r e n t ways. How a d u l t s are a f f e c t e d by problems of being a student, and t h e i r p e r c e p t i o n of these problems; and how s a t i s f i e d or d i s s a t i s f i e d they are w i t h t h e i r experience i n h i g h e r e d u c a t i o n may be r e l a t e d t o whether or not they were students b e f o r e they became a d u l t s . 52 TABLE 2: SUMMARY OF HYPOTHESES: BACKGROUND CHARACTERISTICS AND DEGREE COMPLETION Degree Completers Non-Completers Hypothesis 2 (a) e a r l y time of d e c i s i o n (b) stopouts - intended t o r e t u r n (Re-entry) (c) long-time ambition to a t t e n d (Adult Entry) l a t e time of d e c i s i o n p e r c e i v e d s e l v e s as dropouts (Re-entry) r e c e n t p l a n t o at t e n d (Adult Entry) Hypothesis 3 (a) t r a d i t i o n of higher education i n f a m i l y (b) advanced degree a s p i r a t i o n Hypothesis 4 (a) downward s o c i a l m o b i l i t y no t r a d i t i o n of hi g h e r e d u c a t i o n i n f a m i l y no advanced degree a s p i r a t i o n upward s o c i a l m o b i l i t y 53 S a t i s f a c t i o n . Those with the c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s sometimes a s c r i b e d t o the new "market" (Adult E n t r y students) may be pursuing higher education f o r d i f f e r e n t reasons (from Re- e n t r y students) and may be a f f e c t e d i n d i f f e r e n t ways by the experience. T h e i r more r e c e n t d e c i s i o n t o p a r t i c i p a t e may be based on a change of v o c a t i o n a l g o a l or on having a job i n an environment where s t a t u s and advancement were p e r c e i v e d t o be r e l a t e d t o e d u c a t i o n a l advancement or c r e d e n t i a l s . As a r e s u l t , they may expect more immediate sign s t h a t t h e i r courses w i l l b e n e f i t them, perhaps t h a t the content w i l l have immediate a p p l i c a t i o n . As w e l l , Re-entry students w i l l adapt more e a s i l y because of t h e i r g r e a t e r f a m i l i a r i t y with higher e d u c a t i o n . There i s a much g r e a t e r p r o b a b i l i t y of s a t i s f a c t i o n w i t h the whole exper i e n c e by the Re-entry than the A d u l t E n t r y s t u d e n t s : w i t h the courses and with the e d u c a t i o n a l environment, i n c l u d i n g i n s t r u c t o r s and other students. Hypothesis 5: A d u l t E n t r y students w i l l d i f f e r from Re-entry students i n response t o t h e i r e d u c a t i o n a l experience, i n t h a t they w i l l (a) expect more immediate' p a y o f f from t h e i r courses such as more immediate a p p l i c a t i o n of course content t o work or o t h e r s i t u a t i o n s , (b) f e e l l e s s comfortable w i t h o t h e r s t u d e n t s , and (c) experience l e s s s a t i s f a c t i o n with courses and i n s t r u c t o r s . 54 While some of the l i t e r a t u r e on motivation suggests that success causes s a t i s f a c t i o n , some recent higher education research indicates that s a t i s f a c t i o n i s a cause of persistence and higher achievement (Pascarella and Chapman, 1983). The ambiguity about s a t i s f a c t i o n i s , perhaps, one more argument for placing emphasis on background c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s , where the causal d i r e c t i o n i s more c e r t a i n . The model here suggests that s a t i s f a c t i o n i s related to expectations and previous experience, which are related to persistence, according to Hypothesis 1. However, differences i n s a t i s f a c t i o n should have some d i r e c t e f f e c t on persistence. Support; Problems. Adult Entry students w i l l perceive and perhaps, i n fact, encounter more problems i n pursuing t h e i r education than Re-entry students, both problems with the student role (studying) and with the additional burdens of being a student ( f i n a n c i a l problems, and c o n f l i c t with other areas of t h e i r l i v e s , p a r t i c u l a r l y family and job r e s p o n s i b i l i t i e s ) . They may have less support from t h e i r families (which may be due to inexperience family members have had i n higher education). Support and problems may be perceived as the eff e c t s of external si t u a t i o n s or commitments on students' persistence. Hypothesis 6: Adult Entry students w i l l exper- ience more problems with the student role than Re- entry students, i n ways which w i l l negatively 55 a f f e c t t h e i r p e r s i s t e n c e t o degree completion. S p e c i f i c a l l y , they w i l l (a) p e r c e i v e t h a t they have l e s s support f o r t h e i r e d u c a t i o n a l e f f o r t s from f a m i l y members and others c l o s e t o them, and (b) more f r e g u e n t l y have problems, (such as f i n a n c i a l d i f f i c u l t i e s , job p r e s s u r e s , or d i f f i c u l t i e s with studying) which a f f e c t t h e i r p e r s i s t e n c e t o degree-completion. Support has f r e q u e n t l y been mentioned as an important v a r i a b l e i n p a r t i c i p a t i o n and p e r s i s t e n c e by a d u l t s , p a r t i c u l a r l y married a d u l t s (Bishop and Van Dyk, 1977; Lenning, Beal and Sauer, 1980). Support by p a r e n t s , o t h e r f a m i l y members, and employers may a l s o be important. I t i s assumed t h a t i n e x p e r i e n c e of f a m i l y members w i t h h i g h e r e d u c a t i o n (Hypothesis 3) w i l l make i t d i f f i c u l t f o r some students, more o f t e n A d u l t E n t r y students than Re-entry students, to o b t a i n support. S i m i l a r l y , p e r c e p t i o n of and response to problems may be r e l a t e d t o i n e x p e r i e n c e , i n t h i s case of the students themselves (Hypothesis 1). F i n a n c i a l problems may be r e l a t e d t o u n f a m i l i a r i t y with student l i f e s t y l e on the p a r t of the students themselves and t h e i r f a m i l i e s . D i f f i c u l t i e s w ith study are o b v i o u s l y r e l a t e d t o i n e x p e r i e n c e . A d u l t E n t r y students, with a more r e c e n t commitment to h i g h e r e d u c a t i o n , may be l e s s determined to p e r s i s t i f they encounter problems. 56 Hypotheses 5 and 6 d e a l with i n t e r v e n i n g v a r i a b l e s which are middle elements i n the Cross and T i n t o models. The e x p e c t a t i o n i s t h a t there w i l l be d i f f e r e n c e s i n how these a f f e c t A d u l t E n t r y and Re-entry students, and the e f f e c t on p e r s i s t e n c e or degree-completion w i l l be as i n t e r v e n i n g v a r i a b l e s . Table 3 prov i d e s a summary of the r e l a t i o n s h i p s from the hypotheses on p a r t i c i p a t i o n . Because the v a r i a b l e s i n hypotheses 5 and 6 are i n t e r v e n i n g v a r i a b l e s i n the model (Figure 4), the summary i s of d i f f e r e n c e s between Re-entry and A d u l t E n t r y students, w i t h the Re-entry students expected t o be more l i k e l y t o complete degrees. Summary The framework here i s c o n s i s t e n t w i t h the Cross and T i n t o models. E d u c a t i o n a l background f a c t o r s are p r e d i c t e d to have a c o n s i d e r a b l e e f f e c t on r e a c t i o n s t o the academic environment (other students, u n c e r t a i n r e l e v a n c e of s t u d i e s ) and t h e r e f o r e on the f a c t o r of academic i n t e g r a t i o n , which as been found most important i n r e s e a r c h based on T i n t o ' s model. I t i s a l s o suggested t h a t e d u c a t i o n a l background w i l l a f f e c t the p e r c e p t i o n t h a t e d u c a t i o n i s or can be the route t o achievement of goals and p e r c e p t i o n of the s t r e n g t h and importance of support and b a r r i e r s : thus 57 TABLE 3: SUMMARY OF HYPOTHESES: PARTICIPATION FACTORS AND ENTRY STATUS* Re-entry Adult Entry Hypothesis 5 delayed a p p l i c a t i o n ( c r e d e n t i a l emphasis) comfortable with other students, s c h o l a s t i c environment immediate a p p l i c a t i o n ( c o n t e n t / s k i l l emphasis) problems with other students, s c h o l a s t i c environment Hypothesis 6 high s a t i s f a c t i o n perceive higher l e v e l of support from family and others fewer f i n a n c i a l and other problems low s a t i s f a c t i o n perceive lower l e v e l of support from family and others more f i n a n c i a l and other problems *Re-entry students expected to be more p e r s i s t e n t to degree- completion (Hypothesis 1). 58 g i v i n g p o t e n t i a l l y g r e a t e r emphasis to the importance of goals than to other elements i n the Cross model. However, because of the d i f f e r e n c e i n emphasis here, n e i t h e r of the models w i l l be t e s t e d d i r e c t l y . The hypotheses i n t h i s chapter form the b a s i s of the r e s e a r c h r e p o r t e d i n the f o l l o w i n g s e v e r a l c h a p t e r s . Chapter 4 d e a l s w i t h the a c t u a l data c o l l e c t i o n ; the t e s t i n g of the e f f e c t s of d i f f e r e n t v a r i a b l e s and combinations of v a r i a b l e s on long-term p e r s i s t e n c e are r e p o r t e d i n Chapters 5 to 7. The u t i l i t y of the model i n e x p l a i n i n g the e m p i r i c a l r e s u l t s i s d i s c u s s e d i n Chapter 8. 59 CHAPTER 4 RESEARCH DESIGN AND SURVEY PROCEDURES I n t r o d u c t i o n In t h i s chapter, an o u t l i n e of the r e s e a r c h d e s i g n i s r e p o r t e d . The f i r s t s e c t i o n of the chapter o u t l i n e s the i n i t i a l data c o l l e c t i o n p lans and reasons f o r t h e i r s e l e c t i o n . Then the procedure f o r the mailed survey i s d e s c r i b e d i n some d e t a i l , i n c l u d i n g e f f o r t s t o i n c r e a s e the response r a t e . Respondents and non-respondents to the survey are compared on the b a s i s of a v a i l a b l e d ata. L i m i t a t i o n s t o the r e l i a b i l i t y of the sample, p a r t i c u l a r l y f o r making c e r t a i n kinds of comparison, are suggested. A telephone survey of some non-respondents i s d e s c r i b e d b r i e f l y . T h i s r e p o r t i s f o l l o w e d by a d e s c r i p t i o n of the v a r i a b l e s used. The chapter concludes with a b r i e f o u t l i n e of the data a n a l y s i s procedure used i n l a t e r c h a p t e r s . Sources of Data The d e s i g n i n i t i a l l y had two p a r t s : a study of a l a r g e number of student records f o l l o w e d by a m a i l survey of a somewhat s m a l l e r number of those students whose r e c o r d s had 60 been analyzed. The use of two data sources was necessary to tes t a l l hypotheses. F i r s t , the study of records provided a base of hard data for the research, enabled p a r t i a l d i r e c t t e s t i n g of Hypothesis 1, allowed a check of the r e l i a b i l i t y of the data c o l l e c t e d by survey, and gave some idea of the g e n e r a l i z a b i l i t y of the survey data to a wider populat ion . The records , however, d id not provide data on most of the hypotheses. (If the student records data had inc luded , for example, fa ther ' s occupation, i t would have been poss ib le to test Hypothesis 4 more e a s i l y . ) The sof ter survey data were needed to tes t Hypotheses 2 through 6. The survey was based on a more r e s t r i c t e d population than the sample for the study of records , because otherwise the data analys is would have been unwieldy. (This i s discussed l a t e r . ) Simon Fraser Univers i ty ( S . F . U . ) was se lected mainly because i t has been comparatively access ib le to adult students, p a r t i c u l a r l y those wishing to attend par t - t ime . I t had had p o l i c i e s comparatively favorable to adult students for a long time. S . F . U . was the f i r s t u n i v e r s i t y i n B r i t i s h Columbia to set up a part- t ime degree program. By o f f e r i n g at least undergraduate Arts courses at night on 61 a regular rotation, S.F.U. made i t possible for adults to make long-range plans to pursue degrees. A 1982 survey of three B.C. universities indicated that S.F.U. had higher proportions of students 25 years of age and older and students who considered themselves part-time than the University of British Columbia or the University of Victoria (Taylor and Weldon, 1982). Thus, S.F.U. has been comparatively attractive to adult students in B.C. It has been involved with adult students since its beginning in 1965 and remains relatively attractive to adults. That its programming for adults is not a recent innovation was especially important for this study, in order to obtain a population of adult students who could have been attending over a long time-period, specifically ten years. The selection of S.F.U. was also practical and convenient. In addition, the Division of Continuing Studies, the Office of Academic Advice, and the Registrar's Office were a l l cooperative and very helpful. Student Records Data Al l students who were enrolled at S.F.U. in the third trimester of 1973 and whose birthdates preceded December 1, 1948 were included in the study of records. The selection of age 25 as a minimum age is consistent with other studies, required less data collection than would have been necessary 62 u s i n g a r o l e d e f i n i t i o n of a d u l t , allowed f o r the p o s s i b i l i t y of having both students who s t a r t e d as t r a d i t i o n a l - a g e students (Re-entry) and as a d u l t s (Adult E n t r y ) , and s t i l l allowed f o r a s u b s t a n t i a l p o p u l a t i o n t o be sampled. While some a d u l t students were undoubtedly l e f t out by t h i s use of an age c r i t e r i o n , t h e r e was reasonable c o n f i d e n c e t h a t a l l i n c l u d e d were a d u l t s . The i n i t i a l a n a l y s i s i n v o l v e d 14 35 usable records of students who were 25 years of age or o l d e r when e n r o l l e d at S.F.U. over t en years ago. (There were 1561 t o t a l r e c o r d s , but these i n c l u d e d 126 records which were not usable f o r t h i s s t u d y ) . The study of re c o r d s was used t o p a r t i a l l y t e s t Hypothesis 1; age of i n i t i a l r e g i s t r a t i o n at S.F.U. was used as an i n d i c a t o r of A d u l t E n t r y or Re-entry s t a t u s . In a d d i t i o n , r e c o r d s data p r o v i d e d some v a r i a b l e s which c o u l d be used t o pr o v i d e context and- p e r s p e c t i v e f o r the data o b t a i n e d by survey. Grade P o i n t Average and time at u n i v e r s i t y were not i n c l u d e d i n the model or h y p o t h e s i s because they can be viewed as dependent v a r i a b l e s as much as they are independent v a r i a b l e s . They are i n c l u d e d , however, i n the m u l t i v a r i a t e a n a l y s i s (Chapter 7). The M a i l e d Survey Most of the v a r i a b l e s used i n t h i s r e s e a r c h come from data obtained from a mailed q u e s t i o n n a i r e . T h i s s e c t i o n 63 c o n t a i n s a d i s c u s s i o n of the sample s e l e c t i o n and of the development of the q u e s t i o n n a i r e . Sample • The survey was l i m i t e d t o males who were between 25 and 34 years of age when r e g i s t e r e d a t S.F.U. i n the f a l l of 1973. The s e l e c t i o n of a ten-year age c o h o r t was somewhat a r b i t r a r y . However, i t meant t h a t a l l respondents c o u l d f e a s i b l y s t i l l be young enough t o c o n t i n u e t o work f o r degrees i n 1983 (or a t the time of the survey i n 1985), i f they had not a l r e a d y completed. I t a l s o reduced the need t o i n c l u d e h e a l t h or p h y s i o l o g i c a l c o n s i d e r a t i o n s i n the q u e s t i o n n a i r e . In 1983, a random sample was s e l e c t e d of a l l male undergraduates at S.F.U. born i n the years from 193 9 t o 1948. The d e c i s i o n t o l i m i t the mailed survey by sex and age was based mainly on f e a s i b i l i t y and p r a c t i c a l i t y . I n c l u d i n g females would f o r some v a r i a b l e s r e s u l t i n a need f o r almost double the number of respondents t o a l l o w f o r sound s t a t i s t i c a l a n a l y s e s . While i t was expected t h a t the model o u t l i n e d i n the preceding chapter would apply to both sexes, t h e r e are d i f f e r e n c e s between the sexes suggested i n the l i t e r a t u r e , p a r t i c u l a r l y i n reasons f o r dropping out: d i f f e r e n c e s i n the i n f l u e n c e of f a m i l y r e l a t i o n s h i p s , e f f e c t s of s o c i a l m o b i l i t y , importance of v o c a t i o n a l g o a l s , and the t i m e t a b l e f o r developmental s t a g e s . With r e s p e c t t o the model (Figure 4 ) , i t was expected t h a t some of the 64 p a r t i c i p a t i o n f a c t o r s s t u d i e d — i n p a r t i c u l a r support and problems—would have d i f f e r e n t e f f e c t s i f females were i n c l u d e d . Another reason f o r s e l e c t i n g males here i s the f a c t t h a t mature women i n high e r e d u c a t i o n have been a more popular group f o r study: r e - e n t r y as a term has been mainly a p p l i e d t o women. E l i m i n a t i n g o l d e r males d i d not reduce the p o p u l a t i o n by much. The d i s t r i b u t i o n by age was not continuous; t h e r e were only 82 male students aged 35 and o l d e r at Simon F r a s e r i n the f a l l of 1973, compared t o 809 between 25 and 34. Some of the reasons f o r l i m i t i n g the age range of the sample have been mentioned; i t was a l s o expected t h a t o l d e r males would respond d i f f e r e n t l y t o the student e x p e r i e n c e ( p a r t i c i p a t i o n f a c t o r s ) , and would t h e r e f o r e c o m p l i c a t e the i n t e r p r e t a t i o n and a n a l y s i s of the data u n n e c e s s a r i l y . Q u e s t i o n n a i r e . The survey i n v o l v e d use of a q u e s t i o n n a i r e t o c o l l e c t data t o t e s t Hypotheses 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6. The q u e s t i o n n a i r e was developed over an extended p e r i o d u s i n g items from a v a r i e t y of oth e r q u e s t i o n n a i r e s and o r i g i n a l items, r e f e r e n c e t o Asking Questions (Sudman and Bradburn, 1982) and other sources, and c o n s u l t a t i o n with a number of other r e s e a r c h e r s , i n c l u d i n g the Simon F r a s e r O f f i c e of Academic A d v i c e . (See Appendix C f o r the Ques t i o n n a i r e . ) 65 The main i n t e n t was to get good o c c u p a t i o n a l and e d u c a t i o n a l h i s t o r i e s of the respondents, and respondents' e d u c a t i o n a l plans i n the past and a t the time of the survey- -Questions 1 t o 7 d e a l with e d u c a t i o n a l h i s t o r y and p l a n n i n g (and 17 and 21 wit h f a m i l y e d u c a t i o n a l h i s t o r y ) . S e v e r a l of the q u e s t i o n n a i r e s s t u d i e d i n p r e p a r i n g the instrument f o r the m a i l survey used c h e c k o f f c a t e g o r i e s when a s k i n g f o r occ u p a t i o n (using c a t e g o r i e s such as " p r o f e s s i o n a l , " "managerial," or even " p r o f e s s i o n a l / m a n a g e r i a l " — not very p r e c i s e or i n f o r m a t i v e . ) Respondents were asked t o name t h e i r past and present occupations (6(b), 7 (b), 9, 10, 11) and t h e i r f a t h e r ' s p r i n c i p a l o c c u p a t i o n (20) because much s o c i a l c l a s s and other i n f o r m a t i o n can be l o s t u s i n g c a t e g o r y q u e s t i o n s . I t was hoped a l s o t o use the H o l l a n d c a t e g o r i e s (Holland, 1973) which r e q u i r e d s p e c i f i c o c c u p a t i o n a l t i t l e s . Check l i s t s were used f o r q u e s t i o n s on motives (8), support (12,15), s a t i s f a c t i o n (13), problems (14), and mother's educ a t i o n (21), i n order t o condense the q u e s t i o n n a i r e and because these data were not expected t o be as important as employment and e d u c a t i o n a l h i s t o r i e s . Where p o s s i b l e , open-ended ques t i o n s were i n c l u d e d as w e l l . M a r i t a l s t a t u s , s i z e of f a m i l y , and age of c h i l d r e n were i n c l u d e d because of the p o s s i b i l i t y these l i f e s i t u a t i o n c o n s i d e r a t i o n s c o u l d a f f e c t s t u d e n t s . 6 6 Four adult students who had attended S . F . U . l a t e r than the sample population (two degree-completers and two non- completers ) completed the quest ionnaire and commented on wording and time requirements. When asked to suggest a d d i t i o n a l items, these i n d i v i d u a l s tended to discuss things which affected one person s p e c i f i c a l l y (such as access to p a r t i c u l a r Science courses) . Whatever came up was usual ly something covered i n one of the quest ions. That, along with a request from the Off i ce of Academic Advice at S . F . U . , was the reason for inc lud ing Question 22, an open ended question which asks respondents to make recommendations for improvement of S . F . U . ' s treatment of adult students. F i n a l l y , a few items were deleted to keep the quest ionnaire short enough so as to minimize time for respondents and mai l ing cos t s . One question on job h i s tory (which would have gone between 7 and 9) was cut , along with a question e s s e n t i a l l y d u p l i c a t i n g 8 on reasons for enrollment but asking respondents what they perceived as important motives for others i n pursuing postsecondary education (so as to see i f these adults perceived themselves as d i f f e r e n t ) . In addi t ion a few suggested problems i n 14 were deleted and fa ther ' s education was dropped (because the most relevant item was considered to be fa ther ' s occupation) . A few questions turned out not to generate useful data: the questions on occupational category (Holland, 1973) and 67 sources of support, i n p a r t i c u l a r . T h i s problem was probably due to the r e l a t i v e homogeneity of the sample which may have r e s u l t e d i n a r e s t r i c t e d range of v a l u e s f o r c e r t a i n v a r i a b l e s . M a i l e d Survey; Response Rate I n i t i a l l y , 340 males born between 1939 and 1948 (25 t o 34 years of age i n the f a l l of 1973) were randomly s e l e c t e d from the group of 809 males i n t h a t age range i n the Student Records. Two more were s e l e c t e d immediately, as o r i g i n a l s e l e c t i o n s had "ADDRESS UNKNOWN" on student r e c o r d s and no s i m i l a r name was found i n a B r i t i s h Columbia C i t y D i r e c t o r y . So, the t o t a l sample s e l e c t e d was 342, although o n l y 34 0 q u e s t i o n n a i r e s were mailed i n i t i a l l y . B efore any q u e s t i o n n a i r e s were sent out, some e f f o r t was made t o check addresses. A l l addresses were the most up-to-date, i n 1984, known by e i t h e r the Simon F r a s e r R e g i s t r a r ' s O f f i c e or the Alumni O f f i c e . A l l B r i t i s h Columbia addresses were checked by u s i n g B r i t i s h Columbia C i t y D i r e c t o r i e s and phonebooks (the C i t y D i r e c t o r i e s were more u s e f u l ) ; out-of-town telephone d i r e c t o r i e s were used f o r those i n the sample addresses l i s t e d o u t s i d e of B.C., but i n Canada. I t was not p o s s i b l e t o check f o r e i g n addresses. (Three q u e s t i o n n a i r e s were sent t o the U n i t e d S t a t e s , one each to A u s t r a l i a and West Germany.) As a 68 r e s u l t , 99 of the 340 q u e s t i o n n a i r e s mailed went o r i g i n a l l y to d i f f e r e n t addresses from those p r o v i d e d by S.F.U. Records were kept of the number of addresses and the order used, and the number of q u e s t i o n n a i r e s sent t o d i f f e r e n t i n d i v i d u a l s , but not, u n f o r t u n a t e l y , of the number r e t u r n e d by Canada P o s t — t h e r e were over one hundred. (This was simple o v e r s i g h t ; the main e f f o r t went i n t o t r y i n g t o f i n d another address f o r these i n d i v i d u a l s . ) N i n e t y - s i x d i f f e r e n t addresses were t r i e d f o r second m a i l i n g s — f o r 10, t h i s was a t h i r d address (from the 99 addresses d i f f e r e n t from S.F.U. records o r i g i n a l l y ) ; f o r 86, t h i s was the second address f o r the i n d i v i d u a l . For an a d d i t i o n a l 32, the o r i g i n a l S.F.U. address was t r i e d when a new address had not worked. Follow-up q u e s t i o n n a i r e s were sent t o the same address t o which one had p r e v i o u s l y been sent i n 125 cases where the q u e s t i o n n a i r e s were not r e t u r n e d by Canada Post and t h e r e had been no response.- F i n a l l y , 106 usable q u e s t i o n n a i r e s were r e t u r n e d , a response r a t e (out of 342) of 31.0%. Follow-up s t u d i e s are not something one embarks on o p t i m i s t i c a l l y . "Autopsy s t u d i e s " t y p i c a l l y have response r a t e s of between 15% and 40% (Lenning, B e a l , and Sauer, 1980). I t had been hoped t h a t with the help of the Simon F r a s e r Alumni and R e g i s t r a r ' s o f f i c e s , a h i g h e r r a t e c o u l d have been ob t a i n e d . However: 69 (1) Simon F r a s e r Alumni O f f i c e d e f i n e s a l u m n i " o n l y as people "who have completed degrees, c e r t i f i c a t e s , or diplomas", thus e l i m i n a t i n g most non-completers from c o n s i d e r a t i o n . In a d d i t i o n , the o f f i c e was i n a c t i v e b efore 1981. (Telephone c o n v e r s a t i o n w i t h C h r i s t i n e L i o t t a , Simon F r a s e r Alumni O f f i c e , J u l y 5, 1985) . (2) The R e g i s t r a r ' s O f f i c e u n t i l r e c e n t l y made l i t t l e o r no e f f o r t t o keep t r a c k of s t o p o u t s . Requests f o r t r a n s c r i p t s were not recorded, ' so o p p o r t u n i t i e s t o update addresses were missed. (Telephone c o n v e r s a t i o n with David Smithers, D i r e c t o r of Systems A n a l y s i s , Simon F r a s e r R e g i s t r a r ' s o f f i c e , J u l y 5, 1985. He c o n s i d e r e d a 30% response r a t e from alumni to be good.) In 1983, the O f f i c e of A n a l y t i c a l S t u d i e s a t S.F.U. surveyed 1978-1982 graduates by m a i l and achieved a 38.3% response r a t e , a r e s u l t s i m i l a r t o the 37.4% f o r graduates i n t h i s survey. Q u e s t i o n n a i r e s were sent out w i t h a cover l e t t e r from the r e s e a r c h e r a s s u r i n g c o n f i d e n t i a l i t y and anonymity, and from the Simon F r a s e r O f f i c e of C o n t i n u i n g S t u d i e s , which has a s p e c i a l i n t e r e s t i n p a r t - t i m e and a d u l t students (see Appendix C ) . Stamped and addressed r e t u r n envelopes were enc l o s e d . Short of monetary i n c e n t i v e , a follow-up q u e s t i o n n a i r e (which was sent) i s the o n l y s t r a t e g y c o n s i s t e n t l y e f f e c t i v e i n i n c r e a s i n g response r a t e (Fuqua, Hartman, and Brown, 1982). However, the major problem was f e l t t o be not so much non-response as non-contact—members of the sample who c o u l d not be " l o c a t e d " . As s t a t e d , over one hundred q u e s t i o n n a i r e s were r e t u r n e d by Canada Post. Two or more 70 d i f f e r e n t addresses were t r i e d f o r 141 i n d i v i d u a l s . Probably fewer than 24 0 q u e s t i o n n a i r e s were a c t u a l l y d e l i v e r e d t o the c o r r e c t i n d i v i d u a l s ; perhaps l e s s than h a l f of the sample r e c e i v e d them. The response r a t e f o r those who a c t u a l l y r e c e i v e d the q u e s t i o n n a i r e may have been over 50%. A subsequent telephone survey confirmed t h i s c o n c l u s i o n . Respondents and Non-respondents Compared Table 4 r e p o r t s the response r a t e on two dimensions: age of i n i t i a l r e g i s t r a t i o n at S.F.U. and completion or non- completion of degrees a t S.F.U. Age of i n i t i a l r e g i s t r a t i o n can be used as a rough i n d i c a t o r of Re-entry or A d u l t E n t r y s t a t u s , w i t h those who r e g i s t e r e d i n i t i a l l y a t age 24 or l e s s being Re-entry students by d e f i n i t i o n and those who r e g i s t e r e d at age 25 or o l d e r being probable A d u l t E n t r y st u d e n t s . (Some of those who s t a r t e d at S.F.U. at an o l d e r age were t r a n s f e r s and, t h e r e f o r e , might be Re-entry.) Both age of i n i t i a l r e g i s t r a t i o n and degree-completion at S.F.U. had an e f f e c t on the response r a t e . In the o v e r a l l sample, 68.1% were aged 25 or o l d e r when they f i r s t r e g i s t e r e d a t S.F.U. but o n l y 59.4% of the 106 respondents were. While only 47.4% of the sample had r e c e i v e d S.F.U. degrees, 57.5% of the respondents had done so. (As noted i n the t a b l e , f o u r of the 4 5 non-degree respondents had 71 TABLE 4 RESPONSE RATE BY DEGREE COMPLETION AND AGE OF INITIAL REGISTRATION AT S.F.U. Age Category: 24 or l e s s 25 or o l d e r T o t a l s Degree: Completers 39.0% 1( 77). 36.0% ( 86) 37.4% (163) Non-completers 40.6% ( 32) • 21.8% (147) 25.1% ( 1 7 9 ) 2 Sample 39.4% (109) 27.0% (233) 31.0% (342) ( T o t a l number of re s p o n d e n t s : 106) x 2 = 8.33, d . f . = 1, p<0.01 •'•Percentages i n d i c a t e p r o p o r t i o n r e s p o n d i n g i n each c a t e g o r y . For example, 30 of 77 (39.0%) c o m p l e t e r s i n 24 o r l e s s c a t e g o r y responded. 2 F o u r respondents completed degrees elsewhere, two i n each age c a t e g o r y . 72 r e c e i v e d degrees elsewhere. I t i s i m p o s s i b l e t o estimate p r o p o r t i o n s of s i m i l a r i n d i v i d u a l s i n the whole sample. They may be, l i k e S.F.U. degree-holders, more l i k e l y t o respond than non-completers.) As can be seen i n Table 4, the response r a t e s f o r t h r e e of the f o u r age/degree groups are roughly e q u i v a l e n t , w i t h the r a t e f o r non-completers 25 and o l d e r at f i r s t r e g i s t r a t i o n c o n s i d e r a b l y l e s s than f o r the other c a t e g o r i e s . To some extent t h i s i s due to the low r a t e of response by new students who r e g i s t e r e d f o r the f i r s t time i n the f a l l of 1973, as d i s c u s s e d l a t e r . Response r a t e was r e l a t e d t o t h r e e other f a c t o r s (at l e a s t ) : (a) Length of time between i n i t i a l e n r ollment a t Simon F r a s e r and the F a l l of 1973. (b) (Related to time spent.) Number of c r e d i t s r e c e i v e d at Simon F r a s e r . (c) Grade P o i n t Average. B a s i c a l l y , the e f f e c t s are more or l e s s the same f o r degree- completers (at S.F.U.) and n o n - c o m p l e t e r s — t a k i n g i n t o account the b a s i c 3:2 r a t i o t h a t completers were more l i k e l y to respond than non-completers. However, i n some cases, there i s an i n t e r a c t i o n e f f e c t between the above f a c t o r s and degree-completion which i n c r e a s e s the d i f f e r e n c e . Length of Time. Only 19 (18.4%) of the 103 i n the sample who had i n i t i a l l y r e g i s t e r e d i n the f a l l of 1973 responded t o the mailed q u e s t i o n n a i r e . As a l l students i n 73 the sample were 25 or o l d e r i n the f a l l of 1973, t h i s t o some extent accounts f o r the low response r a t e of non- completers among those who r e g i s t e r e d f o r the f i r s t time when aged 25 or more. (The response r a t e f o r others i n t h i s category was 30.6%, s t i l l l e s s than f o r the ot h e r t h r e e age/degree groups i n Table 4.) Of those whose f i r s t r e g i s t r a t i o n had occ u r r e d between the f a l l of 1971 and the summer of 1973, 32.8% responded; the response r a t e of those who had r e g i s t e r e d p r i o r t o the f a l l of 1971 was 38.2%. Within each of these groups, degree-completers were more l i k e l y t o respond than non-completers. Table 5 r e f l e c t s the e f f e c t of i n t e r a c t i o n between degree completion and time spent at S.F.U.: most of those who had r e g i s t e r e d p r i o r t o F a l l , 1971 and were s t i l l around two years l a t e r subsequently graduated; most i n i t i a l F a l l , 1973 r e g i s t r a n t s d i d not; and those who r e g i s t e r e d between 1971 and 1973 are evenly s p l i t between degree-completers and non-completers. The r e s u l t s are again s i g n i f i c a n t f o r the e f f e c t of time at S.F.U. on response r a t e i n t h a t those who had been at S.F.U. longer were more l i k e l y t o respond. TABLE 5: RESPONSE RATE OF DEGREE COMPLETERS AND NON- COMPLETERS BY TERM OF INITIAL REGISTRATION. Simon F r a s e r F a l l , 1971 t o P r i o r to Degree S t a t u s : F a l l , 1973 Summer, 1973 F a l l , 1971 Completers 1 33.3% (18) 34.9% (63) 40.2% (82) Non-completers 15.3% (85) 30.6% (62) 32.1% (28) X 2 = 10.50, d . f . = 2, p<0.01 (N = 338) •'-Four respondents who completed degrees elsewhere not i n c l u d e d . 74 Number o f c r e d i t s Number o f c r e d i t s e a r n e d i s s i m i l a r t o t i m e spent a t Simon F r a s e r as an i n d i c a t o r o f e x t e n t o f p a r t i c i p a t i o n . I t i s a p o s s i b l e i n d i c a t o r o f l e v e l — e . g . , f i r s t y e a r , s econd y e a r — b u t t h a t c a n n o t be d e t e r m i n e d w i t h c e r t a i n t y because o f the p r e s e n c e o f t r a n s f e r s t u d e n t s . Of t h o s e w i t h 30 o r fewer c r e d i t s , 22.7% o f the sample r e s p o n d e d ; o f t h o s e w i t h between 31 and GO c r e d i t s , 29.2% r e s p o n d e d ; o f t h o s e w i t h 61 o r • more c r e d i t h o u r s , 36.5% r e s p o n d e d . These r e s u l t s a r e f a i r l y c o n s i s t e n t l y m a i n t a i n e d when c o m p l e t e r s and n o n - c o m p l e t e r s a r e compared (see T a b l e 6 ) ; more d e g r e e - c o m p l e t e r s t h a n n o n - c o m p l e t e r s r e s p o n d e d a t e a c h l e v e l . The r e s u l t s a r e s l i g h t l y n o n - l i n e a r — i n p a r t i c u l a r , due t o t h e s m a l l s i z e o f the d e g r e e - c o m p l e t e r group w i t h between 31 and 60 c r e d i t s . P o s s i b l y b e c a u s e o f t h i s n o n - l i n e a r i t y , t h e e f f e c t o f number o f c r e d i t s i s not s i g n i f i c a n t . TABLE 6: RESPONSE RATE OF DEGREE-COMPLETERS AND NON-COMPLETERS BY NUMBER OF CREDIT HOURS AT S . F . U . (TOTAL BY SUMMER, 1983) . Number o f C r e d i t s 0 - 30 31 - 60 61 + Simon F r a s e r d e g r e e C o m p l e t e r s 26.7% (45) 44.4% (18) 37 .0% (100) N o n - c o m p l e t e r s 20.5% (83) 23.4% (47) 35.1% ( 37) X 2 = 2 . 6 7 , d . f . = 2, .20<p<.30 75 Grade P o i n t Average The response r a t e f o r i n d i v i d u a l s w i t h grade p o i n t averages between 0 and 1.99 was 2 3.8%; f o r those w i t h G.P.A.s between 2.00 and 2.99, i t was 27.61; f o r those w i t h G.P.A.s between 3.00 and 4.00, 32.7%. In T a b l e 7, response r a t e s a r e a g a i n compared on the b a s i s of degree c o m p l e t i o n , t h i s time a l s o u s i n g grade p o i n t average. TABLE 7: RESPONSE RATE OF DEGREE-COMPLETERS AND NON- COMPLETERS BY GRADE POINT AVERAGE. Grade p o i n t Average 2.99 o r l e s s 3.00 t o 4.00 Simon F r a s e r d e g ree: Completers Non-completers 33.7% (86) 20.9% (91) X 2 = 1.25, d.f. 36.0% (86) 28.9% (76) = 1, n. s . G.P.A. i s d i c h o t o m i z e d because of the v e r y s m a l l number of d e g r e e - c o m p l e t e r s below 2.00. As can be seen from T a b l e 7, t h e l e v e l of t h e d i f f e r e n c e i s not s i g n i f i c a n t . The group of re s p o n d e n t s i s more r e p r e s e n t a t i v e of d e g r e e - c o m p l e t e r s t h a n non-completers. Non-completers of 76 degrees who r e g i s t e r e d at S.F.U. at age 25 or o l d e r are d e f i n i t e l y under-represented i n the m a i l survey sample, p a r t l y because of the low response r a t e among new students who r e g i s t e r e d a t S.F.U. f o r the f i r s t time i n the f a l l of 1973. T h i s low response r a t e r e s u l t s i n a s m a l l number f o r A d u l t E n t r y students who d i d not complete degrees. T h i s l i m i t s the range of p o s s i b l e analyses and comparisons of groups; otherwise, the data can be t r e a t e d as reasonably r e p r e s e n t a t i v e . In subsequent c h a p t e r s , some d i f f e r e n c e s w i l l be noted between the i n f o r m a t i o n o b t a i n e d from the q u e s t i o n n a i r e responses and t h a t o b tained from the Student Records d a t a . In some cases, these d i f f e r e n c e s may be due t o s y s t e m a t i c d i f f e r e n c e s between respondents and non-respondents. The low response r a t e has t o be accepted as one of the r i s k s i n s t u d y i n g a problem r e g u i r i n g a long time-frame when conducting a l o n g i t u d i n a l study i s i m p r a c t i c a l . Telephone Survey Although the 31.0% response r a t e may have been reasonable given the circumstances, an e f f o r t was made to telephone a sample of the non-respondents, mainly to f i n d out why the response r a t e was as low as i t was. Twenty-four non-respondents were i n t e r v i e w e d by telephone. The sample s e l e c t i o n was l i m i t e d t o the lower mainland of B.C. f o r p r a c t i c a l reasons. One t h r e e - d i g i t random 77 number (144) was s e l e c t e d from a t a b l e of random numbers and every t e n t h non-respondent above and below t h a t number was c a l l e d (thus 4, 14,... , 234) from the l i s t of 236 non- respondents, as long as the i n d i v i d u a l was l o c a t e d i n the lower mainland and a number f o r him c o u l d be found. Otherwise, the next number down was s e l e c t e d . S i m i l a r l y , s u b s t i t u t e s f o r telephone non-respondents were found by going down the l i s t from each non-respondent (wrong person, number not i n s e r v i c e , no answer t o th r e e c o n s e c u t i v e c a l l s , r e f u s a l t o be i n t e r v i e w e d ) . T h i s system, s l i g h t l y l e s s random, was designed t o assure a spread of respondents over the l i s t , which f o l l o w e d the Student Records arrangement by t r i m e s t e r of i n i t i a l r e g i s t r a t i o n at Simon F r a s e r . The 24 non-respondents i n t e r v i e w e d c o n s i s t e d of 13 who had not completed degrees a t Simon F r a s e r and 11 who had. (Two of the non-completers had r e c e i v e d degrees a f t e r 197 3 elsewhere, and one a l r e a d y had had a degree, although he had done undergraduate work at Simon F r a s e r . ) T h i s balance, more l i k e the sample than the respondents t o the mailed q u e s t i o n n a i r e , was not d e l i b e r a t e l y sought, but probably r e s u l t e d from the s l i g h t l y v a r i e d sampling technique used. S t i l l , t h ere i s a s u s p i c i o n t h a t the sample of non- completers obtained i s not a r e p r e s e n t a t i v e group; t h e r e were no i n t e r v i e w e e s who had had a very s h o r t e x p e r i e n c e at S.F.U. ( l e s s than three t r i m e s t e r s , or one y e a r ) , and t h r e e 78 of the f o u r who r e f u s e d t o be i n t e r v i e w e d were non- completers . The r e s u l t s of the telephone survey suggest t h a t non- c o n t a c t was the major cause of non-response t o the ma i l e d survey. Seven of the twenty-four former students who were s u c c e s s f u l l y i n t e r v i e w e d s a i d they had not r e c e i v e d the mailed q u e s t i o n n a i r e — t h e y had moved r e c e n t l y and the m a i l had not been forwarded, or they had j u s t not r e c e i v e d i t . Perhaps they simply c o u l d not remember r e c e i v i n g i t , or d i d not want t o admit i g n o r i n g or f a i l i n g to respond t o the q u e s t i o n n a i r e . To o b t a i n 24 respondents, i t was necessary t o s e l e c t and attempt t o telephone 73 i n d i v i d u a l s . (See Table 8.) In TABLE 8: RESULTS OF THE TELEPHONE SURVEY R e s u l t : Number Interviewed 24 No c o n t a c t 21 Wrong number 24 R e f u s a l 4 T o t a l 73 79 f a c t , the response r a t e f o r the telephone survey was 3 2 . 9%— not much d i f f e r e n t from the 31.0% f o r the m a i l survey. The 7 3 names were obtained u s i n g a l l Lower Mainland and F r a s e r V a l l e y C i t y D i r e c t o r i e s and telephone d i r e c t o r i e s . I t was summer, a bad time to f i n d people a t home, and 21 c o u l d not be reached. There were 24 cases whose address, a c c o r d i n g t o the 1984 Vancouver C i t y D i r e c t o r y agreed w i t h the Simon F r a s e r address and the 1985 Vancouver Telephone D i r e c t o r y , y e t whose number was not i n s e r v i c e by J u l y , 1985. There were f o u r r e f u s a l s : one degree-completer and t h r e e non- completers . Based on the telephone survey, i t i s p o s s i b l e t o make an estimate of the numbers who a c t u a l l y r e c e i v e d the m a i l e d q u e s t i o n n a i r e . The 24 wrong numbers would almost c e r t a i n l y not have, so a maximum of 67.1% (49 of 73) would have r e c e i v e d i t . I f 67.1% of- a l l the m a i l survey sample r e c e i v e d the survey, the response r a t e would have been 46.2% (31.0/67.1). In a d d i t i o n , some of the 21 non-contacts and some of the seven i n the telephone survey who s t a t e d they never r e c e i v e d i t would c e r t a i n l y have been n o n - r e c i p i e n t s . The estimate t h a t over 50% of those who a c t u a l l y r e c e i v e d the m a i l survey responded to i t seems q u i t e r e a s o n a b l e . The 17 i n t e r v i e w e e s who had r e c e i v e d but had not r e t u r n e d the q u e s t i o n n a i r e gave a number of d i f f e r e n t reasons f o r not r e t u r n i n g i t — s o m e s a i d they had meant to do 80 i t but were e i t h e r too busy or had m i s p l a c e d i t ; two s a i d they d i d n ' t f i l l i n q u e s t i o n n a i r e s but they d i d answer qu e s t i o n s over the phone, one c h e e r f u l l y and one not; one gave the reason as "ambivalence"—mixed p o s i t i v e and negative r e a c t i o n s t o S.F.U. (See Table 9.) TABLE 9: TELEPHONE INTERVIEWEES' REASONS FOR NOT COMPLETING QUESTIONNAIRE. Reason: Number never r e c e i v e d 7 too busy 10 l o s t i t 4 d i s i n c l i n e d 2 mixed f e e l i n g s 1 T o t a l 2~4 The main f u n c t i o n of the telephone survey was t o help understand why the response r a t e f o r the m a i l survey was f a i r l y low. The r e s u l t s i n d i c a t e t h a t the m a i l survey response r a t e was probably about as good as c o u l d have been expected. Probably at l e a s t a t h i r d of the mailed q u e s t i o n n a i r e s were not r e c e i v e d by the intended respondents. As s t a t e d e a r l i e r , the r e s u l t s were n e a r l y as good as S.F.U. obtained i n a study of graduates who had attended more r e c e n t l y than the sample surveyed here. (An 81 abridged q u e s t i o n n a i r e was given to the telephone respondents. The r e s u l t s are i n Appendix D.) A n a l y s i s T h i s s e c t i o n d e s c r i b e s the v a r i a b l e s o b t a i n e d from student records and the mailed survey, and o u t l i n e s the methods of a n a l y s i s used i n l a t e r c h a p t e r s . V a r i a b l e s The v a r i a b l e s used i n data a n a l y s i s i n c l u d e d i n f o r m a t i o n from both the q u e s t i o n n a i r e and from the student r e c o r d s . As w e l l as the dependent v a r i a b l e , degree completion, there were elev e n v a r i a b l e s used w i t h the m a i l e d survey sample. The v a r i a b l e s are d e s c r i b e d b r i e f l y below with summary s t a t i s t i c s presented i n Table 10, g i v i n g the mean, standard d e v i a t i o n , and minimum and maximum score f o r each v a r i a b l e . These v a r i a b l e s are used mainly i n the m u l t i v a r i a t e a n a l y s i s i n Chapter 7; f o r these procedures, z- scores (based on standard d e v i a t i o n ) were used r a t h e r than raw scores so the much l a r g e r ranges f o r some v a r i a b l e s such as S a t i s f a c t i o n do not d i s t o r t the r e s u l t s . Nonetheless, the g r e a t e r number of p o s s i b i l i t i e s f o r v a r i a b l e s based on wider ranges (such as s a t i s f a c t i o n , Grade P o i n t Average (G.P.A.), and time s i n c e enrollment) may make them more s e n s i t i v e than o t h e r s , p a r t i c u l a r l y the two-group 82 TABLE 10. VARIABLES USED IN MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS OF DEGREE COMPLETION: SUMMARY STATISTICS V a r i a b l e : Mean Standard D e v i a t i o n Minimum Maximum N Degree 1 .575 .494 0 1 106 E n t r y 1 .444 .509 0 1 98 Time of D e c i s i o n 2.491 1.071 1 4 106 S o c i a l M o b i l i t y .531 1.917 -5 +5 98 E a r l y - c a r e e r M o b i l i t y 1.412 1.390 -1 +5 97 L e v e l of A s p i r a t i o n 1.351 1.849 -5 +5 97 De s i r e f o r Change .544 .571 0 2 103 S a t i s f a c t i o n 10.373 2.044 5 15 102 Work-related problems .470 - .611 0 2 100 Time s i n c e Enrollment 15.990 10.419 0 53 105 Grade P o i n t Average 2.860 .584 1.00 4 .00 92 Mother's Educat i o n 1.827 .955 0 3 104 1. Two-Group C a t e g o r i c a l v a r i a b l e s . 83 c a t e g o r i c a l ( e i t h e r - o r ) v a r i a b l e s , such as degree completion or not and Entry/Re-entry. Most of the v a r i a b l e s are r e q u i r e d f o r the hypotheses. G.P.A. and time s i n c e enrollment, o b t a i n e d from student r e c o r d s , are i n c l u d e d mainly f o r use i n m u l t i v a r i a t e a n a l y s i s . There were no hypotheses u s i n g G.P.A. time s i n c e e n r o l l m e n t , and p a r t l y because they can be viewed almost as much as dependent as independent v a r i a b l e s . For some of the v a r i a b l e s , the range of scores i s much narrower than the p o t e n t i a l range. These s i t u a t i o n s are d e s c r i b e d i n the d e f i n i t i o n of the v a r i a b l e . I t w i l l be observed t h a t the N v a r i e s from 92 t o 106. T h i s v a r i a t i o n i s due mainly t o non-responses t o some qu e s t i o n s i n some of the q u e s t i o n n a i r e s . Degree: The dependent v a r i a b l e throughout a l l the analyses i s completion of a Bachelor's degree at S.F.U. between the f a l l of 1973 and the summer of 1983. T h i s i s a c a t e g o r i c a l v a r i a b l e . E n t r y : T h i s c a t e g o r i c a l v a r i a b l e i s sometimes used as an independent and sometimes as a c o n t r o l v a r i a b l e . The two c a t e g o r i e s are A d u l t E n t r y , those who r e g i s t e r e d i n i t i a l l y i n postsecondary e d u c a t i o n a t age 25 or o l d e r , and Re-entry, those who had been u n i v e r s i t y students at ages younger than 25, but had not completed t h e i r degree programs and had r e - 84 entered the u n i v e r s i t y a f t e r a t t a i n i n g the age of 25. There were no respondents t o the m a i l survey who had s t a r t e d b e f o r e age 25 without l e a v i n g u n i v e r s i t y f o r a t l e a s t a year before 1973. Only 98 of the 106 were d e f i n i t e l y i d e n t i f i e d as E n t r y or Re-entry on the b a s i s of Question 2. (Appendix C.) Guesses c o u l d have been made on the remaining e i g h t u s i n g i n i t i a l r e g i s t r a t i o n s dates and b i r t h d a t e s , but t h i s was avoided. Because of c r o s s - t a b u l a t i o n of E n t r y w i t h o t h e r v a r i a b l e s i n Chapters 5 and 6, Ns i n some t a b l e s are l e s s than 98 when respondents who answered Question 2 l e f t out some oth e r q u e s t i o n . Time of D e c i s i o n : Based on a f o u r - c a t e g o r y q u e s t i o n n a i r e item, a s k i n g i n d i v i d u a l s when they had i n i t i a l l y d e c i d e d t o at t e n d c o l l e g e or u n i v e r s i t y : b e f o r e they had begun a t t e n d i n g high s c h o o l , d u r i n g high s c h o o l , i n the f i r s t t h r e e years a f t e r high s c h o o l , or l a t e r . T h i s i s an o r d i n a l v a r i a b l e . S o c i a l M o b i l i t y : Based on a comparison of f a t h e r ' s o c c u p a t i o n with l e v e l of i n i t i a l job h e l d f o r at l e a s t one year by respondents. Using a s i x - l e v e l s c a l e , t h e o r e t i c a l l y the maximum score c o u l d have been +5 ( s i x minus 1), the minimum -5 (1 minus 6). In f a c t , s cores of 1 or 6 f o r f a t h e r s or sons were almost n o n - e x i s t e n t , scores of 2 r a r e , so the range was c l o s e r t o -2 t o +2 (3 minus 5 t o 5 minus 85 3). ( E i g h t y - f o u r of 98 respondents who answered t h i s q u e s t i o n were i n the -2 t o +2 range.) A l t e r n a t i v e measures, comparison of f a t h e r ' s o c c u p a t i o n with respondent's l a t e r o c c u pations, e i t h e r a t the time of r e g i s t r a t i o n or a t the time of the survey, showed l i t t l e m o b i l i t y upward or downward and the r e s u l t i n g s cores d i d not prove u s e f u l i n a n a l y s i s . E a r l y - c a r e e r m o b i l i t y : A comparison of i n i t i a l o c c u p a t i o n with o c c u p a t i o n h e l d by respondents when they r e - r e g i s t e r e d (Re-entry) or i n i t i a l l y r e g i s t e r e d (Adult Entry) at u n i v e r s i t y . Again, the t h e o r e t i c a l range f o r the v a r i a b l e was -5 t o +5; because respondents e x h i b i t e d l i t t l e downward m o b i l i t y w i t h i n t h e i r own c a r e e r s , the a c t u a l spread of scores was l e s s than f o r S o c i a l M o b i l i t y . (Eighty-one of 97 had scores between 0 and +2.) L e v e l of A s p i r a t i o n : T h i s - measurement was based on a comparison of the s o c i a l c l a s s i n d i c a t e d by respondents' occupations at the time of the survey w i t h the l e v e l of jobs they s t a t e d they would l i k e t o have i n the f u t u r e , i f they wished to change c a r e e r s or advance w i t h i n t h e i r own c a r e e r s . Because few respondents were at lower l e v e l s at the time of the survey, t h i s v a r i a b l e had a r e s t r i c t e d range, i n e f f e c t between zero and two. (Seventy-four of 97 respondents were i n t h i s range.) 86 D e s i r e f o r Change; Respondents were gi v e n one p o i n t i f they had changed occupations s i n c e r e g i s t r a t i o n and another one i f they s t a t e d a f u r t h e r d e s i r e f o r change, whether t h i s was a d e s i r e f o r upward m o b i l i t y or not. The p o s s i b l e range f o r t h i s v a r i a b l e was from zero t o two. There were on l y two i n d i v i d u a l s w i t h scores of two. S a t i s f a c t i o n ; T h i s was an a d d i t i v e index based on answers t o f i v e of seven q u e s t i o n s on s a t i s f a c t i o n w i t h the e x p e r i e n c e of b e i n g a u n i v e r s i t y student. The q u e s t i o n s used were on s a t i s f a c t i o n w i t h c l a s s e s , course content, s c h e d u l i n g , i n s t r u c t o r c o n t a c t , and c l a s s s i z e . Two q u e s t i o n s — o n s a t i s f a c t i o n w i t h s o c i a l l i f e and with c o u n s e l l i n g — w e r e not i n c l u d e d i n the index f o r m u l t i v a r i a t e a n a l y s i s because they d i d not c o n t r i b u t e . They are analyzed s e p a r a t e l y i n the s e c t i o n on t e s t i n g of Hypothesis 5. The responses t o q u e s t i o n s d e a l i n g with s a t i s f a c t i o n w i t h s o c i a l l i f e and c o u n s e l l i n g d i d not d i f f e r e n t i a t e degree-completers and non- completers. The maximum p o s s i b l e score on t h i s v a r i a b l e was 15, minimum 5, but nobody scored lower than 6. Work-Related Problems: I n i t i a l l y , an a d d i t i v e index of problems was attempted w i t h the mailed survey sample. However, n e i t h e r t h i s index nor f o u r of the f i v e c a t e g o r i e s of problems ( p e r s o n a l , f a m i l y , s t u d y - r e l a t e d , f i n a n c i a l ) c o r r e l a t e d s i g n i f i c a n t l y w i t h degree-completion. Only one item, w o r k - r e l a t e d problems, was a u s e f u l p r e d i c t o r and, i n 87 f a c t , was very important i n the a n a l y s i s . The range f o r t h i s item was from zero t o two. Time s i n c e Enrollment: T h i s v a l u e was o b t a i n e d by s u b t r a c t i n g the term of i n i t i a l r e g i s t r a t i o n a t Simon F r a s e r from the term when a degree was obt a i n e d or the respondent l a s t attended. ( E a r l i e s t p o s s i b l e : 1965-3; l a s t p o s s i b l e : 1983-2—a maximum p o s s i b l e score of 53.) The v a r i a b l e does not r e f e r t o the a c t u a l number of semesters a t t e n t e d . Grade P o i n t Average: The d i s t r i b u t i o n of the v a l u e s f o r grade p o i n t average was the nearest t h i n g t o a continuous v a r i a b l e i n t h i s a n a l y s i s , w i t h an upper l i m i t of 4.00. Undergraduate G.P.A. was onl y a v a i l a b l e f o r 92 respondents. The o t h e r 14 had taken some graduate courses and r e c o r d s data u n f o r t u n a t e l y o n l y p r o v i d e d graduate G.P.A.s i n these cases. Mother's E d u c a t i o n : T h i s was based on an e i g h t - c a t e g o r y q u e s t i o n i n the q u e s t i o n n a i r e recoded t o th r e e l e v e l s of l e s s e r t o g r e a t e r l e n g t h s of formal e d u c a t i o n , because some of the o r i g i n a l e i g h t c a t e g o r i e s were n e a r l y empty. Data A n a l y s i s The hypotheses and subhypotheses were t e s t e d u s i n g u n i v a r i a t e and b i v a r i a t e t echniques, i n c l u d i n g c r o s s - t a b u l a t i o n s and c o r r e l a t i o n s . These analyses are r e p o r t e d 88 i n Chapters 5 and 6, u s i n g both survey and r e c o r d s data t o t e s t the i n d i v i d u a l hypotheses. M u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n was used t o assess r e l a t i v e importance of the independent v a r i a b l e s and determine i f a u s e f u l e quation c o u l d be developed t o p r e d i c t p e r s i s t e n c e . While m u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n o r i g i n a l l y was c o n s i d e r e d most u s e f u l f o r p r e d i c t i o n (of behavior such as d r o p o u t ) , i t can a l s o used f o r e x p l a n a t i o n ( K e r l i n g e r and Pedhazur, 1973). D i s c r i m i n a n t a n a l y s i s was used t o determine the extent t o which the v a r i a b l e s i n the model do, indeed, d i s c r i m i n a t e between the two groups: p e r s i s t e r s and n o n - p e r s i s t e r s . I t can be used t o determine whether i n d i v i d u a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s p r e d i c t group membership as the dependent v a r i a b l e i n a r e g r e s s i o n equation, and has the v a l u e of a s s i s t i n g i n understanding the d i f f e r e n c e s between groups and i n s t u d y i n g the r e l a t i o n s among v a r i a b l e s w i t h i n d i f f e r e n t p o p u l a t i o n s and groups ( K e r l i n g e r and Pedhazur, 1973; Cooley and Lohnes, 1971). I t was expected t h i s a n a l y s i s would produce p r o f i l e s of p e r s i s t e r s and n o n - p e r s i s t e r s s i m i l a r t o Tables 2 and 3 i n Chapter 3. The m u l t i v a r i a t e t echniques, m u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n and d i s c r i m i n a n t a n a l y s i s are d i s c u s s e d i n Chapter 7. 89 CHAPTER 5 TESTING HYPOTHESES: BACKGROUND FACTORS AND DEGREE COMPLETION I n t r o d u c t i o n In t h i s chapter and the next, the a n a l y s i s focuses on data obtained from males aged 25 t o 34 i n 1973 as c o l l e c t e d by the mailed q u e s t i o n n a i r e . There are o c c a s i o n a l r e f e r e n c e s i n these chapters t o student r e c o r d s data, f o r the t e s t of Hypothesis 1 and as a means of checking v a l i d i t y . The remainder of t h i s c h apter c o n s i s t s of s e c t i o n s examining i n t u r n Hypotheses 1 t o 4 on the e f f e c t s of s e l e c t e d background c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of respondents on degree-completion. The summary i n c l u d e s an expansion of Table 2, Chapter 3, which summarizes the r e l a t i o n s h i p s with p e r s i s t e n c e which are s t a t e d i n the hypotheses about Background F a c t o r s . Hypothesis T e s t i n g Analyses i n Chapters 5 and 6 are e i t h e r u n i v a r i a t e or b i v a r i a t e , examining mainly d i r e c t r e l a t i o n s h i p s between 90 independent v a r i a b l e s and degree-completion. A c o n t r o l v a r i a b l e may be i n t r o d u c e d to check f o r s p u r i o u s r e l a t i o n s h i p s , or because the hypothesis s p e c i f i c a l l y mentions i n t e r a c t i o n s of more than one independent v a r i a b l e . In p a r t i c u l a r , v a r i o u s motives and experiences of s u b j e c t s were expected to a f f e c t degree-completion d i f f e r e n t l y f o r A d u l t E n t r y than f o r Re-entry students. The hypotheses were examined c h i e f l y through the use of contingency t a b l e s , with c o n c l u s i o n s based on the d i r e c t i o n of the r e l a t i o n s h i p s , i f any, and s t a t i s t i c a l s i g n i f i c a n c e , u s u a l l y t e s t e d by c h i square, when a p p r o p r i a t e . O c c a s i o n a l l y , l i m i t a t i o n s i n the data ( f o r example, w i t h Hypothesis 2) made such t e s t i n g d o u b t f u l . The procedure chosen here was t o t e s t the l i t e r a l hypotheses but t o be c o n s e r v a t i v e i n making c o n c l u s i o n s or c l a i m i n g support. While one should be a l e r t t o both Type 1 and Type 2 e r r o r , a v o i d i n g Type 2 ( a c c e p t i n g hypotheses which should not be accepted) was c o n s i d e r e d somewhat more important i n a model- b u i l d i n g p r o c e s s . B e t t e r t o be sure of the m a t e r i a l s f o r a model b e f o r e working on the s t r u c t u r e . The E n t r y Hypothesis As s t a t e d i n Chapter 3, i t was expected t h a t students w i t h p r i o r post-secondary experience would be more l i k e l y t o p e r s i s t than those without. Experienced students would know what to expect and t h e r e would be g r e a t e r l i k e l i h o o d of 91 p o s i t i v e f a m i l y a t t i t u d e s t o p a r t i c i p a t i n g i n h i g h e r e d u c a t i o n . HI: Re-entry students are more l i k e l y t o p e r s i s t t o degree completion than A d u l t E n t r y s t u d e n t s . In t h i s r e s e a r c h , Re-entry students were d e f i n e d as those who s t a r t e d post-secondary e d u c a t i o n at age 24 or l e s s and A d u l t E n t r y as those who s t a r t e d post-secondary e d u c a t i o n a t age 25 or o l d e r . In f a c t , t h e r e was a bimodal d i s t r i b u t i o n i n the mailed survey s a m p l e — w i t h the mode f o r Re-entry 18 years of age a t the time of i n i t i a l r e g i s t r a t i o n at a u n i v e r s i t y or c o l l e g e , and the mode f o r A d u l t E n t r y between 27 and 28 years of age f o r the s t a r t of t h e i r post-secondary e x p e r i e n c e . (See Appendix C, Question 2.) I t was p o s s i b l e t o t e s t t h i s h y p o thesis u s i n g both student r e c o r d s data and the mailed survey. Because of the importance of the hypothesis i n the model ( F i g u r e 4) , both approaches were used. Student Records data c o u l d not be coded p r e c i s e l y t o c a t e g o r i z e A d u l t E n t r y and Re-entry students, because some students who s t a r t e d at Simon F r a s e r U n i v e r s i t y a t age 25 or o l d e r may have attended another i n s t i t u t i o n p r e v i o u s l y . Some of those who s t a r t e d much younger and were s t i l l a t S.F.U. i n 1973 may have been i n continuous attendance, perhaps p a r t - t i m e . However, by s u b t r a c t i n g year of b i r t h 9 2 from time of i n i t i a l r e g i s t r a t i o n at S.F.U., an approximation can be c a l c u l a t e d , i g n o r i n g the p o s s i b i l i t y of t r a n s f e r . The r e s u l t g i v e s age at time of f i r s t r e g i s t r a t i o n at S.F.U.; those who had i n i t i a l l y r e g i s t e r e d f i r s t a t age 2 4 or younger are Re-entry students by d e f i n i t i o n . Those who s t a r t e d a t age 2 5 or o l d e r are A d u l t E n t r y s t u d e n t s . Those who had r e g i s t e r e d i n i t i a l l y a t S.F.U. i n the f a l l of 1 9 7 3 were l e f t out. T h i s group had a very low degree-completion r a t e at S.F.U., so l e a v i n g them out i s c o n s i s t e n t with the emphasis on a v o i d i n g Type 2 e r r o r . Only 4 4 ( 1 6 . 9 % ) of 2 6 1 males who r e g i s t e r e d i n i t i a l l y i n the f a l l of 1 9 7 3 r e c e i v e d degrees. Table 1 1 shows degree completion r a t e s f o r males aged 2 5 t o 3 4 a t the time of the survey, i n two c a t e g o r i e s based on age of f i r s t r e g i s t r a t i o n a t S.F.U. (This i s the p o p u l a t i o n , except f o r i n i t i a l r e g i s t r a n t s i n the f a l l of 1 9 7 3 , from which the survey sample was s e l e c t e d . ) As can be seen, those who i n i t i a l l y e n r o l l e d at 2 4 or l e s s (Re-entry) were s i g n i f i c a n t l y more l i k e l y t o complete degrees than those who e n r o l l e d at 2 5 or more (mostly A d u l t E n t r y ) . So, student r e c o r d s i n d i c a t e support f o r the h y p o t h e s i s . 93 TABLE 11: DEGREE COMPLETION AND AGE OF FIRST REGISTRATION OF MALE STUDENTS AGED 25-34 AT S.F.U. (STUDENT RECORDS DATA BY ADULT ENTRY AND RE-ENTRY STATUS) Degree: Age cat e g o r y 24 or l e s s 25- 34 Completers 73 .2% (208) 51 .5% (186) Non-Completers 26 .8% (76) 48 .5 . % (175) T o t a l s : 100 .0% (284) 100 .0% (361) (N= 645) X 2 = 33.1, d • f . = 1, p<0. 001 The m a i l survey data f o r t h i s hypothesis are r e p o r t e d i n Table 12. In the mailed survey, only s l i g h t l y more than one-quarter of the A d u l t E n t r y students f a i l e d t o complete degrees, while s l i g h t l y more than h a l f of the Re-entry students were non-completers. The r e s u l t s are s i g n i f i c a n t , but not i n the p r e d i c t e d d i r e c t i o n or the same d i r e c t i o n as student records data. On the b a s i s of the ma i l e d survey, Hypothesis 1 c o u l d be r e j e c t e d . 94 TABLE 12: DEGREE COMPLETION AND NON-COMPLETION BY ADULT ENTRY AND RE-ENTRY STATUS (MAIL SURVEY). S t a t u s : Degree: Re-entry A d u l t E n t r y Completers 48. 1% (26) 72.7% (32.) Non-Completers 51. 9% (28) 27.3% (12) T o t a l s : 100. 0% (54) 100.0% (44) (N = 98) X2 = 6 .11, d . f . = 1, p<0.05 There were e i g h t respondents t o the m a i l survey not c a t e g o r i z e d as Re-entry or A d u l t E n t r y . (They d i d not answer Questions 2, 6, or 7. ) These i n c l u d e d the f o u r who completed degrees at other i n s t i t u t i o n s (although the two who completed t h e i r degrees a f t e r l e a v i n g S.F.U. might be c o n s i d e r e d Re-entry) . On the b a s i s of age and year of i n i t i a l r e g i s t r a t i o n at S.F.U., the remaining f o u r would have i n c l u d e d three Re-entry (one completer, two non- completers) and one A d u l t E n t r y (non-completer). They were l e f t out of a n a l y s i s i n v o l v i n g the En t r y v a r i a b l e because i t 95 was not c e r t a i n what category they belonged t o and because i n c l u d i n g them would not have a f f e c t e d the p r o p o r t i o n s s i g n i f i c a n t l y . The f i n d i n g s on Hypothesis 1 are somewhat ambiguous. I t may be argued t h a t most of these A d u l t E n t r y respondents had a l r e a d y been students f o r some time i n 1973 and, t h e r e f o r e , were f a i r l y w e l l committed st u d e n t s . The response r a t e of those who r e g i s t e r e d i n i t i a l l y i n the t h i r d t r i m e s t e r of 1973 was low (18.4%), and t h i s group had a low r a t e of completion. As s t a t e d i n Chapter 4, the l a c k of A d u l t E n t r y non-completers may be a d e f i c i e n c y of the sample. T h i s may account t o some extent f o r the f i n d i n g s w i t h the m a i l survey. However, the hypothesis was supported w i t h student records data even with f a l l , 197 3 r e g i s t r a n t s excluded. The student r e c o r d s are "hard" data. T h e r e f o r e , the c o n c l u s i o n must be t h a t Hypothesis 1 i s supported. However, the r e s u l t s with the m a i l survey i n d i c a t e t h a t perhaps the hypothesis should be q u a l i f i e d and r e c o n s i d e r e d . In f a c t , i t may be t h a t new students e n r o l l e d f o r the f i r s t time are at high r i s k t o drop out, but t h a t once A d u l t E n t r y students have spent some as y e t undetermined minimum amount of time w i t h i n the system, they may be no more prone t o dropout than Re-entry. Perhaps even one advantage i s t h a t they are u n l i k e l y t o have had negative experiences from being i n post-secondary e d u c a t i o n . The A d u l t Entry/Re-entry d i s t i n c t i o n i s r e c o n s i d e r e d i n Chapter 9. 96 Time of D e c i s i o n Extent of e d u c a t i o n a l ambition, p a r t i c u l a r l y c r e d e n t i a l ambition, was expected t o a f f e c t p e r s i s t e n c e . I n t e n t i o n t o complete degrees and t o pursue advanced degrees i n f l u e n c e degree completion. The l e n g t h of time an ambition has been h e l d i s an i n d i c a t o r of i t s s t r e n g t h . The o l d e r the dream, the more l i k e l y i t w i l l be f o l l o w e d t o f r u i t i o n . H2: The lo n g e r a d u l t students have planned t o complete degrees and the f a r t h e r they planned t o go w i t h t h e i r e d u c a t i o n , the more l i k e l y they are t o p e r s i s t t o degrees. More s p e c i f i c a l l y : (a) The e a r l i e r t h a t a d u l t students made t h e i r d e c i s i o n t o pursue e d u c a t i o n beyond secondary s c h o o l , the more l i k e l y they are t o complete degrees, even as a d u l t s t u d e n t s . (b) Re-entry students w i l l be more l i k e l y t o complete degrees i f they had intended t o r e t u r n when they l e f t post-secondary e d u c a t i o n as p r e - a d u l t s than i f they were u n c e r t a i n or had p e r c e i v e d themselves as dropouts a t t h a t time. (c) A d u l t E n t r y students w i l l more l i k e l y complete degrees i f a t t e n d i n g c o l l e g e or u n i v e r s i t y was f u l f i l l m e n t of a long-time ambition than i f t h e i r d e c i s i o n t o a t t e n d was r e c e n t . The data f o r 2(a) came from a q u e s t i o n i n the m a i l e d q u e s t i o n n a i r e a l l o w i n g f o u r c a t e g o r i e s of time of d e c i s i o n from b e f o r e high s c h o o l t o more than t h r e e years a f t e r high s c h o o l . (See Appendix C, Question 1.) The r e s u l t s are r e p o r t e d f o r degree-completers and non-completers i n Table 13. 97 TABLE 13: TIME OF DECISION AND DEGREE COMPLETION Degree: Time of d e c i s i o n : Completed Not completed Before h i g h s c h o o l 11 8 During high s c h o o l 25 19 Less than 3 years a f t e r high s c h o o l 11 4 More than 3 years a f t e r high s c h o o l 18 10 T o t a l s : 65 41 X 2 = 1.49 d . f . = 3, n. s . While 67% of those who made d e c i s i o n s a f t e r high s c h o o l completed, and onl y 57% of those who made e a r l i e r d e c i s i o n s completed, the r e l a t i o n s h i p i s not s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t . T h i s might be an e f f e c t of having few A d u l t E n t r y non-completers. 98 Table 14 compares the A d u l t E n t r y and Re-entry sub- c a t e g o r i e s of the mailed survey f o r time of d e c i s i o n and degree-completion. The r e s u l t s are not s i g n i f i c a n t f o r e i t h e r group. The main d i f f e r e n c e i s t h a t 46 of 54 (85.2%) Re-entry students made e a r l y (before end of high school) d e c i s i o n s , w h i l e 33 of 44 (75.0%) A d u l t E n t r y students made l a t e ones. TABLE 14 TIME OF DECISION AND DEGREE COMPLETION: ADULT ENTRY AND RE-ENTRY COMPARED Category: A d u l t E n t r y Re-entry Time of d e c i s i o n : Degree No degree Degree No Degree Before high s c h o o l 1 1 9 5 During high s c h o o l 7 2 16 16 Less than 3 years a f t e r high s c h o o l 6 2 3 3 More than 3 years a f t e r high s c h o o l 18 7 - - T o t a l s : 32 12 28 26 X 2 ( A d u l t Entry) = 0.65, d . f . = 3, n.s. X 2(Re-entry) = 1.22, d . f . =3, n.s. The data f o r hypotheses 2(b) and 2(c) are based on a q u e s t i o n a s k i n g f o r the main reason f o r r e - e n r o l l i n g (Re- 99 entry) or f o r e n r o l l i n g f o r the f i r s t time (Adult E n t r y ) . (See Appendix C, Questions 6(a) and 7(a).) I n d i v i d u a l s were allowed t o check one item o n l y . Table 15 g i v e s degree-completion percentages of those answering the motive q u e s t i o n . The percentage shown i s the percentage completing degrees of the group s e l e c t i n g each p a r t i c u l a r motive. C a t e g o r i e s are not e x a c t l y p a r a l l e l f o r Re-entry and A d u l t E n t r y students (because not a l l c a t e g o r i e s were i d e n t i c a l ) , although "to complete a degree" and "to f u l f i l l a long-time ambition" f o r A d u l t E n t r y students and "always intended t o r e t u r n " f o r Re-entry c o u l d be grouped as non- v o c a t i o n a l . The "other" statement was u s u a l l y something t o do with time a v a i l a b l e ( i n one case as a r e s u l t of an i n d u s t r i a l a c c i d e n t ) , boredom or d e s i r e f o r s t i m u l a t i o n . None of these motives were p r e d i c t o r s of success or f a i l u r e . Nine of 10 A d u l t E n t r y students i n the sample who s a i d they had e n r o l l e d mainly "to f u l f i l l a long-time ambition" completed degrees (showing some support f o r Hypothesis 2 ( c ) ) , but most A d u l t E n t r y students i n the sample d i d t h a t , whatever t h e i r main motive at the time. However, the degree-completion and long-time ambition motives were mentioned more f r e q u e n t l y than any of the ot h e r (mainly v o c a t i o n a l ) a l t e r n a t i v e s by A d u l t E n t r y s t u d e n t s . 100 TABLE 15: PERCENT COMPLETING DEGREES DY MAIN MOTIVE AT TIME OF ENROLLING OR RE-ENROLLING S t a t u s : Main reason f o r e n r o l l i n g A d u l t E n t r y Re-entry Always i n t e n d e d t o r e t u r n 57% (21) Long time a m b i t i o n 90% (10)1 To complete a degree 71% (21) V o c a t i o n a l m o t i v e 2 60% (10) 48% (25) Other 50% (2) 50% ( 8 ) l l n p a r e ntheses, number c h e c k i n g item. P e r c e n t r e f e r s t o p r o p o r t i o n of t h a t number c o m p l e t i n g degrees. 2combines f o u r statements from q u e s t i o n f o r A d u l t E n t r y ; t h r e e statements from q u e s t i o n by Re-entry. Another q u e s t i o n (Appendix C, Q u e s t i o n 8) asked respondents what they c o n s i d e r e d important f o r a t t e n d i n g p o s t - s e c o n d a r y i n s t i t u t i o n s a t the time of the survey. T h i s q u e s t i o n f o c u s e d on b e n e f i t s a t t r i b u t e d t o h i g h e r e d u c a t i o n 101 by the respondents, which could have been influenced by t h e i r experience i n addition to t h e i r motives or attitudes when they started. In addition, t h i s question allowed multiple responses; respondents were allowed to check off as many items as they wished. One item was "To complete a degree;" one was "To meet people;" six items indicated vocational emphases; and three were based on personal or s e l f - or world-understanding motives. While the question does not provide data d i r e c t l y relevant to Hypothesis 2, i t might be that degree-completion and self/understanding motives are more related to a long-term desire to attend university than vocational or s o c i a l motives. Only six ind i v i d u a l s , a l l degree-completers, checked "To meet people." None of the other categories: degree completion, vocational reasons, or self/understanding reasons were s i g n i f i c a n t l y related to degree completion by the respondents. However, there were s i g n i f i c a n t (at the 0.05 level) differences between the Adult Entry and Re-entry groups i n l i k e l i h o o d of emphasizing vocational and self/understanding motives. Re-entry students were s i g n i f i c a n t l y more l i k e l y to stress vocational reasons for attending, while Adult Entry students were s i g n i f i c a n t l y more l i k e l y to emphasize personal reasons or understanding of s e l f or the world. (See Table 16.) 102 TABLE 16: EMPHASIS ON VOCATIONAL VS. SELF/UNDERSTANDING REASONS FOR ATTENDING, BY ENTRY STATUS S t a t u s : Reason f o r a t t e n d i n g : A d u l t E n t r y Re-entry V o c a t i o n a l 1 54.5% 3 88.5 % S e l f / u n d e r s t a n d i n g 2 81.4% 57.7% N = 44 52 X2 ( v o c a t i o n a l ) = 13.93, d . f . = l , p<0.01 X2 ( s e l f / u n d e r s t a n d i n g ) = 6.44, d . f . = l , p<0.05 ^Checked o f f one or more of s i x items. 2Checked o f f one or more of th r e e items. ^ C a t e g o r i e s not mutually e x c l u s i v e ; i n d i v i d u a l s c o u l d check o f f items i n both c a t e g o r i e s . W i t h i n the c a t e g o r i e s , however, th e r e was no r e l a t i o n s h i p t o degree-completion. A d u l t E n t r y students u s u a l l y completed degrees; Re-entry students were e q u a l l y l i k e l y t o complete or not, whether they emphasized v o c a t i o n a l or s e l f / u n d e r s t a n d i n g motives. Given the i n d i c a t i o n i n Table 15 t h a t those with v o c a t i o n a l motives were r e l a t i v e l y l e s s s u c c e s s f u l i n completing degrees, i t i s perhaps not s u r p r i s i n g t h a t the l e s s s u c c e s s f u l Re-entry 103 group would be more l i k e l y t o s t r e s s v o c a t i o n a l reasons f o r a t t e n d i n g u n i v e r s i t y . While d i f f e r e n c e s were found between Re-entry and A d u l t E n t r y students i n time of d e c i s i o n and i n motives f o r enrollment, the hypothesized connections w i t h degree completion were not found. None of the sub-hypotheses of Hypothesis 2 was supported. Family E d u c a t i o n a l Background: Degree A s p i r a t i o n Some v a r i a b l e s , l i k e time of d e c i s i o n i n Hypothesis 2, were expected to a f f e c t p e r s i s t e n c e of A d u l t E n t r y and Re- e n t r y students i n the same manner. Family involvement i n hi g h e r e d u c a t i o n and degree a s p i r a t i o n were a l s o c o n s i d e r e d l i k e l y t o a f f e c t the two groups' p e r s i s t e n c e i n the same manner. H3: A d u l t s who p e r s i s t i n post-secondary e d u c a t i o n t o completion of degrees, as opposed t o a d u l t p a r t i c i p a n t s i n higher e d u c a t i o n who do not complete degrees, w i l l : (a) more l i k e l y have f a m i l y members with advanced education, and (b) more f r e q u e n t l y have planned t o pursue advanced degrees when they s t a r t e d p o s t - secondary e d u c a t i o n . The i n f l u e n c e of f a m i l y e d u c a t i o n a l involvement i s somewhat ambiguous. Table 17 r e p o r t s the r e l a t i o n s h i p between mother's education and degree-completion f o r the mailed survey. The r e s u l t s are not s i g n i f i c a n t . 104 TABLE 17: MOTHER'S EDUCATION AND DEGREE COMPLETION Degree Completed Not completed Mother's E d u c a t i o n : Less than high school 24 13 High School completion 24 15 Post-Secondary E d u c a t i o n 12 13 T o t a l : 60 41 X 2 = 1.88, d . f . = 2, n.s. S t a t i s t i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e s were d i s c o v e r e d i n mother's education between .the Re-entry and A d u l t E n t r y groups. (See Table 18.) H a l f of the A d u l t E n t r y Students (21 of 42) had mothers wi t h l e s s than high s c h o o l completion compared t o 14 of 53 Re-entry students, w h i l e more Re-entry students had mothers who had at l e a s t some post-secondary e d u c a t i o n (18 to 6 of the A d u l t E n t r y s t u d e n t s ) . Re-entry, students' mothers had on average more years of e d u c a t i o n than A d u l t Entry students' mothers. Having r e l a t i v e l y w e l l - 105 TABLE 18: MOTHER'S EDUCATION AND ENTRY STATUS Status• Re-entry A d u l t E n t r y Mother's E d u c a t i o n : Less than high school High School completion Post-Secondary E d u c a t i o n 14 21 18 21 15 T o t a l : 53 X 2 = 7.33, d . f . = 2, p <0.05 42 -'•Six respondents c o u l d not be c a t e g o r i z e d as A d u l t E n t r y or Re-entry. educated mothers i n c r e a s e d chances one would go to p o s t - secondary education immediately or soon a f t e r high s c h o o l , but not t h a t one would complete a degree. Having s i b l i n g s who had attended c o l l e g e or u n i v e r s i t y d i d not d i f f e r e n t i a t e degree-completers from non-completers. S i x t e e n p e r s i s t e r s had had b r o t h e r s or s i s t e r s a t t e n d p o s t - secondary before they d i d and so d i d 11 n o n - p e r s i s t e r s , but t h a t i s p r o p o r t i o n a l t o the o v e r a l l r a t i o of degree- completers t o non-completers among a l l respondents. 106 Hypothesis 3(a) i s not supported by the d a t a . There i s a s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e between Re-entry students and A d u l t E n t r y students i n mother's l e v e l of e d u c a t i o n , but n e i t h e r t h a t v a r i a b l e nor higher e d u c a t i o n p a r t i c i p a t i o n by s i b l i n g s had any e f f e c t on p e r s i s t e n c e t o degree-completion. L i k e w i s e , degree a s p i r a t i o n was not a v e r y u s e f u l p r e d i c t o r v a r i a b l e . Almost a l l respondents i n t e n d e d t o complete degrees, and almost a l l of them in t e n d e d to complete a Bachelor's degree o n l y . A few students s a i d they intended t o stop short of a degree; many of these were t a k i n g a c e r t i f i c a t e course f o r bankers when they f i r s t e n r o l l e d , so perhaps they can be b e l i e v e d . (They were degree students by the f a l l of 1973 so were i n c l u d e d i n the survey.) A few more s t a t e d they had o r i g i n a l l y i n t e n ded to complete graduate or p r o f e s s i o n a l degrees. Degree a s p i r a t i o n made no d i f f e r e n c e i n completion r a t e s : s l i g h t l y more than h a l f , f i v e of nine, who s t a t e d they had not o r i g i n a l l y intended t o go as f a r as a Bachelor's degree, d i d , and s l i g h t l y l e s s than h a l f , s i x of 13, who intended to go beyond d i d not get t o the f i r s t degree. One i n t e r e s t i n g p o i n t i s t h a t 10 of the 13 who a s p i r e d t o advanced degrees were Re-entry s t u d e n t s . A d u l t E n t r y students, s t a r t i n g at an o l d e r age, appeared t o be l e s s l i k e l y t o a s p i r e beyond the Bachelor's degree i n i t i a l l y . 107 I t was not a n t i c i p a t e d t h a t so few students would express i n t e r e s t i n advanced degrees, although perhaps i t should not have been s u r p r i s i n g t h a t few a d u l t students would have a s p i r a t i o n s f o r graduate work. There i s evidence t h a t male students are not as i n c l i n e d t o pursue e d u c a t i o n , e s p e c i a l l y f u l l - t i m e e d u c a t i o n l i k e most graduate and p r o f e s s i o n a l programs, a f t e r age 30, as they are i n t h e i r twenties ( F r o s t , 1980; Hopper and Osborn, 1975). Hypothesis 3 i s not supported by a v a i l a b l e evidence. N e i t h e r l e v e l of mother's e d u c a t i o n nor degree a s p i r a t i o n were a s s o c i a t e d with p e r s i s t e n c e i n the m a i l survey. These are v a r i a b l e s which have been found t o a f f e c t p e r s i s t e n c e i n r e s e a r c h based on t r a d i t i o n a l - a g e post-secondary s t u d e n t s . For a d u l t students, perhaps t r a d i t i o n a l p r e d i c t o r v a r i a b l e s do not have t r a d i t i o n a l e f f e c t s . S o c i a l C l a s s / M o b i l i t v The s o c i o l o g i c a l l y - b a s e d r e s e a r c h on r e t u r n e d dropouts (Eckland, 1965), a d u l t students (Hopper and Osborn, 1975), and p a r t - t i m e students (Humphreys and P o r t e r , 1978) l e d t o an e x p e c t a t i o n t h a t downward m o b i l i t y would be more a s s o c i a t e d with degree-completion than upward m o b i l i t y . I t was expected t h a t a f a i r p r o p o r t i o n of the Re-entry students would be downwardly mobile and, of course, i t had been expected t h a t Re-entry students would be more l i k e l y t o complete degrees than A d u l t E n t r y . 108 H4 : There w i l l be higher proportion of in d i v i d u a l s downwardly mobile i n s o c i a l class among adults who pe r s i s t to degrees than among non-persisters; and there w i l l be a higher proportion of upwardly mobile individuals among non-persisting adults than persisters (mobility by comparison to family of o r i g i n ) . Data for testing t h i s hypothesis came from questions asking for father's occupation and for the main occupation the student had p r i o r to becoming a student (Adult Entry) or pr i o r to returning to being a student (Re-entry). Also of inte r e s t were questions asking for present occupation and occupational aspirations. (See Appendix C: Questions 6,7,9,11, and 20.) Occupations were coded using a s i x - l e v e l system rather than one of the more precise socioeconomic status or occupational prestige scales because of some uncertainty about the l e v e l of some occupations given i n answers. When an occupation was d i f f i c u l t to code even using the si m p l i f i e d system—"banker" for example—a generous l e v e l was given, as much as anything because of the ov e r a l l trend, with few respondents reporting higher-level occupations for t h e i r fathers. There were not many opportunities for downward mobility i n the sample. Only 6 of 101 who answered t h i s question could be said to have fathers i n upper or upper middle class occupations. The mean occupational l e v e l for fathers, based on the s i x - l e v e l system chosen, was 4.07. 109 The mean o c c u p a t i o n a l l e v e l f o r respondents' main job p r i o r t o b eing a student or t o r e - e n t r y was 3.76, i n d i c a t i n g s l i g h t downward m o b i l i t y . However, t h i s must be i n t e r p r e t e d c a u t i o u s l y because many respondents d i d not a c t u a l l y i n t e r p r e t t h i s job as being p a r t of t h e i r c a r e e r . S i x t e e n of 106 d i d not respond to t h i s q u e s t i o n ; by comparison o n l y 5 l e f t out f a t h e r ' s o c c u p a t i o n and o n l y 3 d i d not g i v e t h e i r present o c c u p a t i o n . There i s a sense, e s p e c i a l l y from the Re-entry s t u d e n t s , t h a t any job mentioned was viewed as having nothing t o do w i t h t h e i r s t a t u s ; t h i s would seem l o g i c a l , e s p e c i a l l y f o r those who had d e f i n i t e l y intended to r e t u r n t o h i g h e r e d u c a t i o n , who would probably have viewed t h e i r jobs d u r i n g t h i s time as temporary. Table 19 r e p o r t s the r e l a t i o n s h i p between degree- completion and t h r e e c a t e g o r i e s of s o c i a l m o b i l i t y (between f a t h e r ' s o c c u p a t i o n and f i r s t "job h e l d f o r a year or more) f o r the f u l l sample. The t h r e e c a t e g o r i e s of m o b i l i t y a r e : (1) downward: change of 1 or more l e v e l s from f a t h e r ' s o c c u p a t i o n t o f i r s t job ( f o r example, 5 - 4 ) ; (2) no m o b i l i t y : no change between f a t h e r ' s o c c u p a t i o n and f i r s t job; and (3) upward: f i r s t job 1 or more l e v e l s h i g h e r than f a t h e r ' s o c c u p a t i o n . TABLE 19: DEGREE COMPLETION AND SOCIAL MOBILITY M o b i l i t y : Downward No Upward m o b i l i t y m o b i l i t y m o b i l i t y T o t a l A d u l t E n t r y : No Degree 5 3 4 12 Degree 13 9 7 29 X 2 = 0.39, d . f . = 2, n.s. Re-entry: No Degree 12 3 10 25 Degree 11 5 4 2 0 X 2 = 2.50, d . f . = 2, n.s. F u l l Sample: No Degree 17 6 14 37 Degree 24 14 11 4 9 I l l As can be seen, the r e s u l t s are not s i g n i f i c a n t f o r the f u l l sample, although more than h a l f of the downwardly mobile a d u l t students completed degrees w h i l e l e s s than h a l f of the upwardly mobile a d u l t students d i d . L i k e w i s e , the r e s u l t s were not s i g n i f i c a n t at the 0.05 l e v e l f o r the A d u l t E n t r y and Re-entry subsamples, although t h e r e was a s l i g h t l y s t r o n g e r tendency f o r the v a r i a b l e t o have the expected e f f e c t with Re-entry students, among whom 47.8% of the downwardly mobile completed degrees compared t o 28.6% of the upwardly mobile. An a l t e r n a t i v e measure of s o c i a l m o b i l i t y , comparing f a t h e r ' s o c c u p a t i o n w i t h job h e l d by respondent a t the time of the survey, had even l e s s r e l a t i o n s h i p t o degree completion. By the time of the survey, o n l y two of the respondents c o u l d be d e s c r i b e d as s t i l l b e i n g downwardly mobile from t h e i r f a m i l y - o f - o r i g i n - s t a t u s . E a r l y - c a r e e r m o b i l i t y , change i n o c c u p a t i o n a l l e v e l from f i r s t job t o job at the time of e n t r y or r e - e n t r y t o post-secondary e d u c a t i o n , was r e l a t e d t o degree-completion among the Re-entry group. However, as Table 20 shows, t h e r e was no e f f e c t f o r A d u l t E n t r y students and the e f f e c t f o r the f u l l sample was not s i g n i f i c a n t . (There was no downward m o b i l i t y of more than one l e v e l reported.) 112 TABLE 20: DEGREE COMPLETION AND EARLY-CAREER MOBILITY M o b i l i t y : Degree: No m o b i l i t y Upward m o b i l i t y A d u l t E n t r y No degree 6 Degree 18 X 2= 0.12, d . f . = 1, n.s. Re-entry No degree 22 Degree 14 X 2= 5.76, d . f . = 1, p<.10 F u l l Sample No degree Degree 28 32 6 14 4 12 10 26 (N=96) X 2 = 2.41, d . f . = l , n.s. Upward m o b i l i t y between f i r s t job and job h e l d b e f o r e r e t u r n i n g t o hig h e r e d u c a t i o n may be r e l a t e d t o degree- completion by Re-entry students. A c t u a l l y , Re-entry students who d i s p l a y e d no m o b i l i t y i n t h e i r e a r l y c a r e e r s .were more l i k e l y not t o complete degrees than t o complete, w h i l e mobile Re-entry and both mobile and non-mobile A d u l t E n t r y students were more l i k e l y t o complete than not. T h i s 113 l a c k of p e r s i s t e n c e by non-mobile Re-entry students may i n d i c a t e g i v i n g - u p , d e f e a t , or l a c k of ambition. D e s i r e f o r f u r t h e r upward m o b i l i t y was more s t r o n g l y r e l a t e d t o degree-completion than any measures based on respondents' h i s t o r i e s . Respondents were asked what oc c u p a t i o n they expected t o be p r a c t i c i n g i n two or ten y e a r s ; u s u a l l y they expected only one change. A comparison of the job respondents expected t o be doing i n ten years compared to t h e i r f i r s t job was used as measure of l e v e l of a s p i r a t i o n . As Table 21 shows, t h i s r e l a t e d q u i t e s t r o n g l y w i t h degree completion: the more upward m o b i l i t y i n d i c a t e d , the more l i k e l y one was t o be a degree-completer. The e f f e c t of low l e v e l of a s p i r a t i o n was e s p e c i a l l y s t r o n g f o r Re-entry students: 70% of those who a s p i r e d t o downward or no m o b i l i t y were non-completers w h i l e 7 8% of those who a s p i r e d t o upward m o b i l i t y completed. (For A d u l t E n t r y students, t h e r e was l i t t l e d i f f e r e n c e : 71% of those w i t h no upward m o b i l i t y a s p i r a t i o n s and 7 5% of those w i t h a s p i r a t i o n s completed degrees.) There were s i x who expected t o be downwardly mobile ( a c c o r d i n g t o the s c a l e ) over t h e i r c a r e e r s , one degree- completer (Adult Entry) and f i v e non-completers (one A d u l t E n t r y , f o u r R e - e n t r y ) . They u s u a l l y s t a t e d a d e s i r e t o become an a r t i s t or craftsman, something l i k e a dropout motive, not an e x p e c t a t i o n of f a i l u r e . 114 TABLE 21: DEGREE COMPLETION AND LEVEL OF ASPIRATION M o b i l i t y : Downward or Upward no m o b i l i t y m o b i l i t y T o t a l : Re-entry No degree 21 5 26 Degree 9 18 27 X 2 = 12.19, d . f . = 1, p <0.01. A d u l t E n t r y No degree 7 5 12 Degree x 2 17 = 0.10, d.f =1, n.s. 15 32 F u l l sample No degree 28 10 38 Degree 26 33 59 X 2 = 8.10, d.f.=10, p<0. 01 L e v e l of a s p i r a t i o n c o u l d be c o n s i d e r e d an e f f e c t of degree-completion r a t h e r than a cause. Those who had not completed degrees might r e a l i s t i c a l l y expect l e s s upward m o b i l i t y . On the other hand, i t c o u l d i n d i c a t e a l a c k of goal o r i e n t a t i o n i n the f i r s t p l a c e , which one would expect t o r e l a t e n e g a t i v e l y t o degree-completion. However, l e v e l of a s p i r a t i o n p r i o r t o or d u r i n g enrollment was not assessed; q u e s t i o n s ( a c t u a l l y , sub-questions) a s k i n g : "At t h a t time, what was your v o c a t i o n a l g o a l ? " were d e l e t e d 115 p a r t l y because pre-test respondents were unable to answer the questions or f e l t they were i r r e l e v a n t , and p a r t l y to save space. A l l of the relationships reported i n t h i s section worked more strongly with Re-entry students than with Adult Entry students. Downwardly mobile Re-entry students were more l i k e l y to complete degrees than were upwardly mobile ones. Re-entry students who were not upwardly mobile i n t h e i r early careers were more l i k e l y to be non-completers than degree-completers. And, Re-entry students who did not complete degrees were un l i k e l y to aspire to further occupational mobility i n t h e i r careers. This closer association of persistence to degree- completion and s o c i a l mobility factors with Re-entry students than with the Adult Entry students may r e s u l t from an o v e r a l l closer association between education and status with Re-entry students. As observed i n the discussion of Hypothesis 3(a), Re-entry students were more l i k e l y to have mothers with high school completion and with some post- secondary education; they may have been more s o c i a l i z e d to higher education and the association of education with career success. Re-entry students, who had been traditional-age students and may have many c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of t r a d i t i o n a l students, may be more i n c l i n e d to use education to t r y to reverse downward mobility, and 116 c o n v e r s e l y may be more i n c l i n e d t o lower t h e i r a s p i r a t i o n s i f they do not succeed e d u c a t i o n a l l y . The l a c k of students from upper c l a s s and upper middle c l a s s s o c i a l o r i g i n s i n the sample made i t d i f f i c u l t t o t e s t the h y p o t h e s i s , but Hypothesis 4 i s p a r t l y supported. S o c i a l m o b i l i t y and e d u c a t i o n a l achievement are c l e a r l y r e l a t e d ; the c a u s e - e f f e c t d i r e c t i o n of the r e l a t i o n s h i p i s l e s s c e r t a i n . Summary: Background C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s The i n i t i a l h y pothesis t h a t Re-entry students would be more l i k e l y t o complete degrees than A d u l t E n t r y was supported by the student r e c o r d s data. Lack of support i n the survey data may have been p a r t l y due t o sampling l i m i t a t i o n s : the f a c t t h a t f i r s t - t i m e r e g i s t r a n t s and, t h e r e f o r e , A d u l t E n t r y non-completers of degrees were underrepresented among the respondents. The t e s t i n g of Hypotheses 2 t o 4 i s summarized i n T a b l e 22, which i s an expansion of Table 2 from Chapter 3. The t a b l e summarizes the r e l a t i o n s h i p s w i t h degree-completion f o r s e v e r a l background v a r i a b l e s . While the hypotheses were mainly not supported, the i n t e r p r e t a t i o n i s c o n s e r v a t i v e . There were r e l a t i o n s h i p s not i n d i c a t e d i n the t a b l e , f o r example, d i f f e r e n c e s between A d u l t E n t r y students and Re- e n t r y students i n m o t i v a t i o n , and d i f f e r e n c e s between p e r s i s t e r s and n o n - p e r s i s t e r s i n some aspects of c a r e e r m o b i l i t y . 117 TABLE 22: SUPPORT FOR PREDICTIONS FROM CHAPTER 3 : BACKGROUND CHARACTERISTICS AND DEGREE COMPLETION Degree: Completers Non-completers Support from from Data? Hypothesis 2: (a) e a r l y time of d e c i s i o n (b) s t o p o u t s - i n t e n d e d t o r e t u r n (Re-entry) (c) long-time ambition f u l f i l l e d (Adult Entry) Hypothesis 3 : (a) t r a d i t i o n of higher ed u c a t i o n (b) advanced degree a s p i r a t i o n Hypothesis 4: downward s o c i a l m o b i l i t y mature time of d e c i s i o n p e r c e i v e d s e l v e s as dropouts (Re-entry) r e c e n t i d e a t o a t t e n d (Adult Entry) no t r a d i t i o n of high e r e d u c a t i o n i n f a m i l y no advanced degree a s p i r a t i o n upward s o c i a l m o b i l i t y no no no no no yes-Re- e n t r y no-Adult E n t r y 118 Vocational motives or motives such as desire for immediate application of learning were not as conducive to completing degrees as motives such as "to complete a degree" or e n r o l l i n g for self-understanding. Vocational motives were more prevalent among Re-entry students; e n r o l l i n g because of b e l i e f i n the more i n t r i n s i c values of higher education was more prevalent among the Adult Entry group. Conclusions about the influence of s o c i a l mobility (Hypothesis 4) were impossible to make mainly because of r e s t r i c t e d range i n the sample: lack of students from upper- l e v e l f a m i l i e s . However, there are s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t p o s i t i v e relationships between degree completion and within-career upward mobility (early-career m o b i l i t y ) , and degree-completion and desire for further upward mobility ( l e v e l of as p i r a t i o n ) . P a r t i c u l a r l y with Re-entry students, those who were upwardly mobile i n t h e i r early careers and those who aspired to further mobility at the time of the survey were more l i k e l y to complete degrees. These relationships, however, may be ef f e c t s as much as causes of educational success. To some extent, background factors had less e f f e c t on persistence than had been anticipated, and intervening (Participation) variables - discussed next i n Chapter 6 - more importance than expected. Some of the reasons for t h i s w i l l be discussed further i n Chapter 7. 119 CHAPTER 6 TESTING HYPOTHESES: PARTICIPATION EFFECTS AND DEGREE COMPLETION I n t r o d u c t i o n T h i s chapter c o n t i n u e s the u n i v a r i a t e and b i v a r i a t e a n a l y s es of the hypotheses. The focus i s on the e f f e c t s of the student experience i t s e l f . Hypotheses 5 and 6 d e a l w i t h the i n t e r v e n i n g v a r i a b l e s i n the model, the e f f e c t s of s a t i s f a c t i o n , support, and problems on p e r s i s t e n c e t o degree completion ( F i g u r e 4, p. 43). The f i r s t s e c t i o n , d e a l i n g with s a t i s f a c t i o n , i s q u i t e e x t e n s i v e . Each of the sub-hypotheses of Hypothesis 5 i s t r e a t e d s e p a r a t e l y . In a d d i t i o n , w h i l e the h y p o t h e s i s d e a l s w i t h d i f f e r e n c e s between the A d u l t E n t r y and Re-entry c a t e g o r i e s , the e f f e c t s of s a t i s f a c t i o n on p e r s i s t e n c e are a l s o r e p o r t e d . As noted i n the s e c t i o n on Hypothesis 1 i n the p r e v i o u s chapter, the r e l a t i o n s h i p between the E n t r y v a r i a b l e and the dependent v a r i a b l e (degree-completion) i s ambiguous. F o l l o w i n g the s e c t i o n on problems and support (Hypothesis 6), the summary i n c l u d e s an expansion of Table 120 3, Chapter 3, s i m i l a r t o Table 22 from Chapter 5. The l o g i c i n v o l v e d i n t r e a t i n g the v a r i a b l e s from t h i s c h apter as cause, e f f e c t , or i n t e r v e n i n g v a r i a b l e s i s d i s c u s s e d . S a t i s f a c t i o n The students' p r e v i o u s experience w i t h h i g h e r e d u c a t i o n was expected t o a f f e c t response t o the student r o l e — e x p e c t a t i o n s , l e v e l of s a t i s f a c t i o n , p e r c e p t i o n of problems. These d i f f e r e n c e s , expected t o d i f f e r e n t i a t e between A d u l t E n t r y and Re-Entry groups, were seen as p o s s i b l e m e d i a t i n g v a r i a b l e s i n p e r s i s t e n c e . Re-entry students, because of experience, were expected t o be more s a t i s f i e d w i t h what they were g e t t i n g and wi t h the u n i v e r s i t y environment, and these e f f e c t s were expected t o c o n t r i b u t e t o the g r e a t e r p e r s i s t e n c e of t h i s group as compared t o A d u l t E n t r y , students who, by d e f i n i t i o n , had had no experience w i t h h i g h e r e d u c a t i o n . H5: A d u l t E n t r y students w i l l d i f f e r from Re-entry students i n response t o t h e i r e d u c a t i o n a l experience, i n t h a t they w i l l : (a) expect more immediate pa y o f f from t h e i r courses such as immediate a p p l i c a t i o n of course content t o work or other s i t u a t i o n s , (b) f e e l l e s s comfortable w i t h other students, and (c) experience l e s s s a t i s f a c t i o n with courses and i n s t r u c t o r s . 121 The data f o r t h i s hypothesis were generated from a q u e s t i o n on reasons f o r e n r o l l i n g and a q u e s t i o n a s k i n g about s a t i s f a c t i o n with s e v e r a l aspects of t h e i r e d u c a t i o n a l experience at Simon F r a s e r U n i v e r s i t y . Immediate Payoff The q u e s t i o n on motives f o r e n r o l l i n g (see Appendix C , Question 8) allowed students t o check o f f any of e l e v e n p o s s i b i l i t i e s , i n c l u d i n g "to l e a r n something f o r a s p e c i f i c purpose (immediate a p p l i c a t i o n ) . " I f respondents checked o f f the s p e c i f i c purpose category, i t was assumed immediate a p p l i c a t i o n was important t o them. T h i r t y - f o u r of 106 (32.1%) checked the item. I t was p r e d i c t e d t h a t both non-completers and A d u l t E n t r y students would be more l i k e l y t o check t h i s motive than degree-completers and Re-entry students; t h i s was seen as one of the reasons why A d u l t E n t r y students would be l e s s l i k e l y t o succeed. A d u l t E n t r y students were more l i k e l y than Re-entry students t o check o f f t h i s item, and non- completers were more l i k e l y than degree-completers t o do so. However, the i n t e r a c t i o n i s not a d d i t i v e . 122 Table 23 r e p o r t s the r e s u l t s f o r the q u e s t i o n broken down by E n t r y s t a t u s and degree completion, showing the percentage of each category which i n c l u d e d immediate a p p l i c a t i o n as one of the motives f o r e n r o l l i n g . As can be seen, emphasis on immediate a p p l i c a t i o n d i f f e r e n t i a t e s non- completers from completers more than i t d i f f e r e n t i a t e s A d u l t E n t r y from Re-entry ( d i f f e r e n c e of 16.4% t o d i f f e r e n c e of 7.1%). The motive a p p a r e n t l y made the most d i f f e r e n c e among Re-entry students: 12 of 26 Re-entry non-completers emphasized immediate a p p l i c a t i o n compared t o 5 of 28 Re- ent r y degree-completers. The e f f e c t i s s i g n i f i c a n t a t the 0.10 but not at the 0.05 l e v e l . TABLE 23: PERCENT CONSIDERING IMMEDIATE APPLICATION IMPORTANT BY DEGREE COMPLETION AND ENTRY STATUS S t a t u s : Degree: A d u l t E n t r y Re-entry T o t a l Completed 37.5%(32) 17.8%(28) 28.3%(60) Not Completed 41.7%(12) 46.2%(26) 44.7%(38) T o t a l 38.6%(44) 31.5%(54) (N i n p a r e n t h e s e s ) . X 2 (Adult Entry) = 0 . 4 1 , d . f . = 2 , n . s . X 2 (Re-entry) = 4.96, d . f . = 2, n.s. X 2 ( F u l l Sample) = 4.4, d . f . = 2, n.s. 123 Hypothesis 5(a) was not supported. Although immediate a p p l i c a t i o n as a motive i s n e g a t i v e l y r e l a t e d t o degree- completion, the e f f e c t i s not t h a t of a mediating v a r i a b l e . S a t i s f a c t i o n w i t h S o c i a l L i f e . The data on s a t i s f a c t i o n ( f o r Hypotheses 5(b) and 5(c)) with v a r i o u s aspects of student l i f e and experience come from a q u e s t i o n a s k i n g students t o say whether they were "very s a t i s f i e d , " " s a t i s f i e d , " or "not s a t i s f i e d " w i t h seven i t e m s — s o c i a l l i f e , q u a l i t y of c l a s s e s and cour s e s , s c h e d u l i n g , c l a s s s i z e , i n s t r u c t o r c o n t a c t , and c o u n s e l l i n g (Appendix C, Question, no. 13). Hypothesis (5b) i s o n l y p a r t l y d e a l t with by the q u e s t i o n on s a t i s f a c t i o n w i t h s o c i a l l i f e (or " o p p o r t u n i t i e s t o mix wit h other s t u d e n t s " ) , but "Problems wi t h classmates" (Appendix C , Question 14(a)), the other i n d i c a t o r i n the q u e s t i o n n a i r e , was not checked o f f by any respondent. As s t a t e d b e f o r e , these s a t i s f a c t i o n items were intended t o d i f f e r e n t i a t e p e r s i s t e r s and n o n - p e r s i s t e r s and A d u l t E n t r y and Re-entry students, and i n the same d i r e c t i o n — m o r e s a t i s f a c t i o n would be r e p o r t e d by Re-entry students and by degree-completers. I t was a n t i c i p a t e d t h a t s a t i s f a c t i o n would a c t as a mediating v a r i a b l e which would c o n t r i b u t e t o a h i g h e r r a t e of degree-completion. However, giv e n the r e s u l t s of t e s t i n g Hypothesis 1 wit h the m a i l survey, d i f f e r e n c e s between A d u l t E n t r y and Re-entry 124 students on s a t i s f a c t i o n would not be a n t i c i p a t e d , c e r t a i n l y not i n the expected d i r e c t i o n . In f a c t , on most items A d u l t E n t r y students r e p o r t e d g r e a t e r s a t i s f a c t i o n than Re-entry, which was not expected, but might have been p r e d i c t e d g i v e n the e a r l i e r r e s u l t s f o r Hypothesis 1 i n the survey (Table 12, p. 94). As one might expect, degree-completers r e p o r t e d g r e a t e r s a t i s f a c t i o n than non-completers on a l l items. In Table 24 the complete r e s u l t s f o r s a t i s f a c t i o n w i t h s o c i a l l i f e are r e p o r t e d . The r e s u l t of a c h i square t e s t i s s i g n i f i c a n t f o r the whole sample and i s c l o s e t o s i g n i f i c a n t f o r the Re-entry subsample. Very few respondents r e p o r t e d d i s s a t i s f a c t i o n w i t h s o c i a l l i f e , and most of those graduated. Degree-completers were more l i k e l y than non-completers t o r e p o r t being very s a t i s f i e d ; t h i s was e s p e c i a l l y the case with Re-entry students, who were o v e r a l l l e s s l i k e l y t o r e p o r t high s a t i s f a c t i o n w i t h s o c i a l l i f e . Although t h e r e i s an e f f e c t — a r e l a t i o n s h i p w i t h d e g r e e - c o m p l e t i o n — H y p o t h e s i s 5(b) i s not supported. S a t i s f a c t i o n w i t h s o c i a l l i f e i s r e l a t e d t o p e r s i s t e n c e . In Table 25, i t can be seen t h a t s a t i s f a c t i o n with s o c i a l l i f e i s one of the items which most s t r o n g l y d i s t i n g u i s h e s degree-completers and non-completers (along w i t h i n s t r u c t o r c o n t a c t and c l a s s s i z e ) . I t a l s o d i s t i n g u i s h e s A d u l t E n t r y and Re-entry Students, although not i n the expected d i r e c t i o n . 125 TABLE 24 SATISFACTION WITH SOCIAL LIFE AND DEGREE COMPLETION Category: A d u l t E n t r y No degree Degree X 2 = 2.45, d . f . Re-entry No degree Degree X 2= 5.45, d . f . F u l l Sample 1 No degree Degree X 2= 8.98, d . f . 0 3 = 2, n.s, 1 1 = 2, n.s. 1 4 =2, p <0.01, Response: D i s s a t i s f i e d S a t i s f i e d Very s a t i s f i e d 9 16 21 15 33 34 3 12 2 9 5 23 1(N=100), e i g h t i n d i v i d u a l s i n c l u d e d i n f u l l sample not c a t e g o r i z e d as Re-entry or A d u l t E n t r y . 126 The S a t i s f a c t i o n V a r i a b l e The s a t i s f a c t i o n items, i n g e n e r a l , c o n t r i b u t e more t o the d i f f e r e n c e between degree completers and non-completers than t o the d i f f e r e n c e between the A d u l t E n t r y and Re-entry groups. The d i f f e r e n c e i s g r e a t e r , i n f a c t , f o r a l l of the items except s a t i s f a c t i o n with c o u n s e l l i n g (and t r i v i a l f o r s a t i s f a c t i o n w i t h q u a l i t y of c l a s s e s ) . In Table 25, the seven items are summarized, u s i n g both comparisons: A d u l t E n t r y v s. Re-entry, and degree completion v s . non- completion. Percentages of respondents "very s a t i s f i e d " w i t h aspects of t h e i r experience a t Simon F r a s e r U n i v e r s i t y are shown. Use of "very s a t i s f i e d " was chosen because, i n most cases, t h e r e were few " d i s s a t i s f i e d . " For f i v e of the items, the d i f f e r e n c e s between E n t r y c a t e g o r i e s are 5.6% or l e s s , w i t h no d i f f e r e n c e g r e a t e r than 13.3%. D i f f e r e n c e s between degree-completers and non-completers ranged from 7.2% t o 27.0%. The remaining items i n Table 25, b e s i d e s s a t i s f a c t i o n w i t h s o c i a l l i f e , which has been d i s c u s s e d , d e a l w i t h Hypothesis 5 ( c ) . S e v e r a l p o i n t s can be made. I t should be 127 TABLE 25: PERCENT VERY SATISFIED WITH ASPECTS OF SIMON FRASER EXPERIENCE BY ENTRY STATUS AND DEGREE COMPLETION Status: Persistence: Satisfaction (with: Adult Entry Re-Entry Degree No degree (N=43) (N=51) (N=58) (N=36) social l i f e 34.9% quality of classes 23.2% content of courses 16.3% scheduling of classes 20.9% class size 23.3% contact with instructors 30.2% counselling 20.9% 21.6% 17.6% 15.7% 23.5% 21.6% 25.5% 9.8% 36.2% 24.1% 19.0% 29.3% 35.3% 37.9% 19.0% 13.9% 13.9% 11.1% 11.1% .8.3% 11.1% 8.3% 128 noted t h a t the t a b l e d e a l s with only those who made "very s a t i s f i e d " responses. With a l l items, the l a r g e s t number of respondents checked o f f the middle c a t e g o r y — " s a t i s f i e d . " With- a l l but one i t e m — c o u n s e l l i n g — m o r e "very s a t i s f i e d " responses were recorded than "not s a t i s f i e d . " Perhaps at S.F.U., which has a t r a d i t i o n of attempting t o accommodate p a r t - t i m e and a d u l t students, any problems w i t h being an i n s t i t u t i o n p r i m a r i l y f o r youth were minimized. F u r t h e r comments are i n order on s a t i s f a c t i o n w i t h i n s t r u c t o r c o n t a c t and with c o u n s e l l i n g . I n s t r u c t o r Contact. Table 26 r e p o r t s the r e l a t i o n s h i p between degree-completion and s a t i s f a c t i o n with i n s t r u c t o r c o n t a c t , i n d e t a i l . The r e s u l t s were n e a r l y s i g n i f i c a n t f o r both the A d u l t E n t r y and Re-entry groups (p<0.10 but not <0.05) and s i g n i f i c a n t f o r the f u l l sample. S a t i s f a c t i o n with o p p o r t u n i t i e s f o r c o n t a c t with i n s t r u c t o r s was d e f i n i t e l y r e l a t e d t o degree-completion. T h i s i s c o n s i s t e n t with f i n d i n g s of r e s e a r c h based on the T i n t o model r e f e r r e d t o i n Chapter 3. 129 TABLE 26: DEGREE COMPLETION AND SATISFACTION WITH INSTRUCTOR CONTACT Response: Category: Dissatisfied Satisfied Very satisfied Adult Entry No degree 4 7 1 Degree 4 15 12 X2= 4.77, d.f. = 2, n.s. Re-entry No degree 6 15 3 Degree 2 15 10 X2=5.46, d.f. = 2, n.s. Full Sample1 No degree 10 24 4 Degree 6 34 23 X2= 10.33, d.f. = 2, p <0.005. 1(N=101), seven respondents are included who were not categorized as Adult Entry or Re-entry.. 130 C o u n s e l l i n g . L e v e l of s a t i s f a c t i o n w i t h c o u n s e l l i n g was no t a b l y low; f o r t h i s q u e s t i o n o n l y , more respondents were " d i s s a t i s f i e d " than "very s a t i s f i e d " (27 t o 14; even among degree-completers, 15 were not s a t i s f i e d t o 11 who s a i d they were very s a t i s f i e d ; see Table 27). There was no s i g n i f i c a n t a s s o c i a t i o n between d i s s a t i s f a c t i o n w i t h c o u n s e l l i n g and degree-completion, but the r e l a t i v e l y high l e v e l of d i s s a t i s f a c t i o n i s s t i l l of i n t e r e s t . Comments made by some respondents i n d i c a t e d t h a t t h i s was not so much d i s s a t i s f a c t i o n w i t h the c o u n s e l l i n g t h a t was r e c e i v e d as i t was a f e e l i n g t h a t t h e r e was not enough of i t . Some f e l t t h a t c o u n s e l l o r s should be atta c h e d t o departments; some t h a t c o u n s e l l i n g should be gi v e n t o a l l at the s t a r t of t h e i r programs. The Importance of S a t i s f a c t i o n An a n a l y s i s of v a r i a n c e was c a r r i e d out t o compare the e f f e c t s of E n t r y s t a t u s and s a t i s f a c t i o n on degree- completion. The use of a n a l y s i s of v a r i a n c e i s simply t o compare e f f e c t s ; i t would be i n a p p r o p r i a t e t o use such a n a l y s i s t o e s t a b l i s h c a u s a t i o n . 131 TABLE 27: DEGREE COMPLETION AND SATISFACTION WITH COUNSELLING Response: Category: D i s s a t i s f i e d S a t i s f i e d Very s a t i s f i e d Adul t Entry No degree 4 7 1 Degree - 8 14 8 X 2 = 1.82, d . f . = 3, n . s . Re-entry No degree 8 14 2 Degree 6 16 3 X 2 =0.59, d . f . = 3, n . s . F u l l Sample 1 No degree 12 24 3 Degree 15 33 11 X 2 = 2.39, d . f . = 3, n . s . 1(N=98), seven respondents are inc luded who were not ca tegor ized as Adult Entry or Re-entry . 132 The r e s u l t s of the a n a l y s i s are i n d i c a t i v e of the importance of the S a t i s f a c t i o n v a r i a b l e . I t should be r e c a l l e d , however, t h a t t h i s measure i s based on r e t r o s p e c t i v e e x p r e s s i o n s of s a t i s f a c t i o n or d i s - s a t i s f a c t i o n . The S a t i s f a c t i o n measure used here was an a d d i t i v e index of f i v e of the items (except f o r s o c i a l l i f e and c o u n s e l l i n g ) which had been found most u s e f u l i n m u l t i v a r i a t e a n a l y s i s . ( I t was a b e t t e r p r e d i c t o r of degree completion than a composite score i n c l u d i n g a l l seven, or any other combination.) Table 28 shows t h a t S a t i s f a c t i o n accounts f o r more of the e x p l a i n e d v a r i a n c e i n degree completion/non-completion r e s u l t s than E n t r y s t a t u s . S a t i s f a c t i o n and E n t r y account f o r 14.9% of the v a r i a n c e i n degree completion with S a t i s f a c t i o n by i t s e l f a c c o u n t i n g f o r 9.7%. (Variance i s the p r o p o r t i o n of the t o t a l sum of squares accounted f o r by e x p l a i n e d v a r i a n c e and s a t i s f a c t i o n sums of squares, r e s p e c t i v e l y . ) The e f f e c t of E n t r y on degree completion i s c l o s e t o s t a t i s t i c a l s i g n i f i c a n c e (p=0.064) and the o v e r a l l e x p l a i n e d v a r i a n c e i s s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t , but s a t i s f a c t i o n i s by f a r the more s i g n i f i c a n t independent v a r i a b l e . The respondents t o the mailed survey were s a t i s f i e d w i t h t h e i r S.F.U. experience, and the lower s a t i s f a c t i o n and. o c c a s i o n a l d i s s a t i s f a c t i o n expressed by n o n - p e r s i s t e r s may be c o n s i d e r e d as at l e a s t p a r t l y r a t i o n a l i z a t i o n . However, S a t i s f a c t i o n accounts f o r a s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t p r o p o r t i o n of the v a r i a n c e i n degree completion. (See Chapter 7.) 133 TABLE 28: ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE FOR DEGREE COMPLETION COMPARING EFFECTS OF SATISFACTION AND ENTRY STATUS. Source of Sum of Mean F S i g n i f i c a n c e V a r i a t i o n Squares D.F. Square Main e f f e c t s : 3.162 3 1.054 4.907 0.003 Ent r y 0.756 1 0.756 3.521 0.064 S a t i s f a c t i o n 2.156 2 1.078 5.020 0.009 I n t e r a c t i o n : E n t r y X S a t i s f a c t i o n 0.152 2 0.076 0.354 0.703 E x p l a i n e d V a r i a n c e 3.314 5 0.663 3.086 0.013 R e s i d u a l 18.899 88 0.215 T o t a l 22.213 93 0.239 134 Hypothesis 5 was not supported by the data. Adult Entry students were not more i n c l i n e d than Re-entry to emphasize immediate application, or to be less s a t i s f i e d with t h e i r s o c i a l l i f e at university or any other part of t h e i r university experience. However, a l l these things had ef f e c t on degree-completion. S a t i s f a c t i o n did not act, apparently, as an intervening vari a b l e . To discover how i t works with other variables to af f e c t degree-completion requires multivariate analysis, which i s reported i n the next chapter. Support; Problems Because of the differences between the groups i n t h e i r own and i n t h e i r f a m i l i e s ' experiences with higher education, Adult Entry students were expected to perceive, and have, more problems than Re-entry students with adjusting to being a student. Again, these differences were seen as having the e f f e c t of intervening va r i a b l e s , accounting for some of the reasons why Re-entry students would be more l i k e l y to complete degrees. H6: Adult Entry students w i l l experience more problems with the student role than Re-entry students, i n ways which w i l l negatively a f f e c t t h e i r persistence to degree-completion. S p e c i f i c a l l y , they w i l l : (a) perceive that they have less support for t h e i r educational e f f o r t s from family members and others close to them, and 135 (b) more f r e q u e n t l y have problems (such as f i n a n c i a l d i f f i c u l t i e s , job p r e s s u r e s , or d i f f i c u l t i e s with studying) which a f f e c t t h e i r p e r s i s t e n c e t o degree-completion. Data on support and problems came from t h r e e q u e s t i o n s (Appendix C: Questions 14, 15, and 16). The q u e s t i o n on sources of support allowed i n d i v i d u a l s t o check o f f as many c a t e g o r i e s of support as they w i s h e d — s i x f a m i l y c a t e g o r i e s , f r i e n d s , employers, t e a c h e r s , classmates, o t h e r s . Degree of support by any or a l l sources was not determined. The q u e s t i o n on problems i n c l u d e d items which c o u l d be c a t e g o r i z e d as f a m i l y , f i n a n c i a l , p e r s o n a l and job problems as w e l l as study problems and was intended t o be r e l a t e d t o the support q u e s t i o n . I t was hypothesized t h a t A d u l t E n t r y students would have or p e r c e i v e more problems, p a r t i c u l a r l y w i t h f a m i l y and job commitments, and t h a t t h i s would c o n t r i b u t e t o dropout. S i m i l a r l y , i t was expected t h a t A d u l t E n t r y students would have more d i f f i c u l t y g e t t i n g support f o r t h e i r e d u c a t i o n a l endeavours, among oth e r t h i n g s because of l e s s f a m i l y experience w i t h h i g h e r e d u c a t i o n , than Re-entry students. Support Most respondents r e p o r t e d support from f a m i l y members — 50 checked o f f one or more f a m i l y c a t e g o r i e s . Next came f r i e n d s (25), someone from the ed u c a t i o n system such as te a c h e r s or c o u n s e l l o r s (14), and l a s t of a l l , employers (10). (See Appendix C, Question 15.) G e n e r a l l y , i t appears 136 these adults were pursuing higher education to change careers; many i n fact f e l t they had not yet r e a l l y embarked on careers. As a r e s u l t , the employer category was not very important. Support or lack of support did not d i f f e r e n t i a t e Adult Entry and Re-entry students or a f f e c t degree-completion rates (See Table 29.) The t o t a l number of support categories checked off did not correlate with degree-completion (-0.014, n.s.) or with Adult Entry status (-0.093, n.s.). Twenty-seven respondents, when asked who supported t h e i r educational e f f o r t s , s p e c i f i c a l l y answered "no one." Sixteen of these completed degrees; 11 did n o t — a 59% completion rate compared to 62% i n the whole sample. Only 13 individuals' reported that anyone close to them had opposed t h e i r education. (In 11 cases i t was family members; twice i t was employers.) Nine of the 13 had completed t h e i r degrees. S l i g h t l y more than half of the ind i v i d u a l s who reported opposition (Appendix C, Question 16) were Adult Entry students, but there was no noticeable e f f e c t from such opposition for either Adult Entry or Re- entry students i n t h e i r degree completion rates. 137 TABLE 29 DEGREE COMPLETION AND NUMBER OF SOURCES (JI1 SUJ'l'UKT Number of sources of support Category checked No one 1 s o u r c e 2 o r more s o u r c e s No degree 11 10 10 Degree 16 21 2G (N=102), X 2 = 0.71, d.f. = 2, n.s. Hypothesis 6(a) was not supported by the d a t a . Considerations of support or - opposition of f a m i l y members and others was simply not important to many of the a d u l t males i n the mail survey. I t may be that t h i s v a r i a b l e , stressed i n other research, i s not that i m p o r t a n t i n J,ong- term p e r s i s t e n c e . ' I t may al s o be that i t i s not as important with adult males as with females. however, as stated, the q u a l i t y of the support from s p e c i f i c i n d i v i d u a l s was not determined. 138 Problems Respondents were allowed t o check as many problems as a p p l i e d t o them: t h e r e were two c a t e g o r i e s which c o u l d be coded as p e r s o n a l problems, f o u r as f a m i l y problems, two as f i n a n c i a l , t h r e e as s t u d y - r e l a t e d , and two as j o b - r e l a t e d or work problems. (See Appendix, Question 14.) There were no s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e s between degree-completers and non- completers or between A d u l t E n t r y and Re-entry i n number of problems or i n fo u r of the f i v e problem c a t e g o r i e s — p e r s o n a l , f a m i l y , f i n a n c i a l , and s t u d y - r e l a t e d . (There were some d i f f e r e n c e s i n c a t e g o r i e s emphasized; t h i s i s r e p o r t e d l a t e r . ) R e s u l t s were s i g n i f i c a n t only f o r job or work- r e l a t e d problems, mainly because of the e f f e c t w i t h the A d u l t E n t r y group. (See Table 30.) So, those who had had w o r k - r e l a t e d problems were somewhat l e s s l i k e l y t o complete a degree. Nine of e l e v e n A d u l t E n t r y non-completers who responded t o the problems q u e s t i o n r e p o r t e d job problems c o n f l i c t i n g w i t h t h e i r u n i v e r s i t y work. The r e s u l t i s s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t even though t h e r e were very few non-completers. 139 TABLE 30: DEGREE COMPLETION AND WORK-RELATED PROBLEMS No problems Problems Category: Reported Reported A d u l t E n t r y No degree 2 9 Degree 22 10 X 2 = 8.32, d . f . = 1, p<0.01 Re-entry No degree 13 11 Degree 16 10 X 2= 0.27, d . f . = 1, n.s. F u l l Sample 1 No degree 15 21 Degree 4 3 2 0 X 2 = 6.69, d . f . = l f p<0.01. 1(N=99). S i x responents are i n c l u d e d who where not c a t e g o r i z e d as A d u l t E n t r y or Re-entry. 140 In a d d i t i o n , t h e r e were some ( s l i g h t ) d i f f e r e n c e s between the c a t e g o r i e s i n types of problems emphasized. Table 31 g i v e s the c a t e g o r i e s of major problems r e p o r t e d by A d u l t E n t r y and Re-entry broken down i n degree completion/non-completion sub c a t e g o r i e s . Respondents were asked t o i n d i c a t e t h e i r main problem d u r i n g t h e i r time as a student. T h i s was an open-ended q u e s t i o n but i t was f a i r l y easy t o group the responses; i n f a c t , most o f t e n one of the suggestions from the c h e c k l i s t was g i v e n . D i f f e r e n c e s between degree-completers and non- completers were s l i g h t and s t a t i s t i c a l l y n o n - s i g n i f i c a n t , the g r e a t e s t d i f f e r e n c e being t h a t non-completers were more l i k e l y t o emphasize p e r s o n a l d e f i c i e n c i e s ( l a c k of e n e r g y — " l a z i n e s s " — o r l a c k of s e l f - c o n f i d e n c e ) ; these problems were r e p o r t e d by 31.5% of 35 non-completers and 19.0% of 58 completers. D i f f e r e n c e s between A d u l t E n t r y and Re-entry students emphasized not e x t e r n a l p r e s s u r e s l i k e f i n a n c e s , or f a m i l y or job p r e s s u r e s , but the student r o l e i t s e l f . Study problems were r e p o r t e d by 40.5% of 42 A d u l t E n t r y students compared t o 19.6% of 51 Re-entry students. F i n a n c i a l problems were r e p o r t e d as the main problem by 21.6% of Re- e n t r y compared t o 11.9% of A d u l t E n t r y s t u d e n t s , and a p p a r e n t l y had no e f f e c t on p e r s i s t e n c e by the TABLE 31: TYPE OF PROBLEM REPORTED AS MAIN ONE DURING TIME AS STUDENT, BY DEGREE/ENTRY CATEGORY Category: Re-entry Adult Entry Main problem No degree Degree No degree Degree None1 1 3 0 0 Personal 8 5 3 6 Job 4 4 2 2' Family 2 3 2 5 Financial 5 - 6 0 5 Study _ 6 4 13 Totals (N=93) 24 27 11 31 l"None" or "no problem" specifically stated. 142 A d u l t E n t r y respondents, a l l f i v e of those who r e p o r t e d f i n a n c i a l problems completing degrees. Except f o r the f i n d i n g t h a t w o r k - r e l a t e d problems were r e l a t e d t o dropout by A d u l t E n t r y students, Hypothesis 6(b) was not supported. There were d i f f e r e n c e s (but not s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e s ) between the Re-entry and A d u l t E n t r y groups i n types of problems most o f t e n r e p o r t e d , but t h e r e was l i t t l e r e l a t i o n s h i p between having or not having problems and p e r s i s t e n c e . A d u l t E n t r y students a p p a r e n t l y were not p a r t i c u l a r l y a f f e c t e d by f a m i l y and other problems except f o r work- r e l a t e d problems. Support or l a c k of support was not a major c o n s i d e r a t i o n f o r them; they s t r e s s e d i n s t e a d problems w i t h being a student, l a c k of s k i l l s f o r doing the work and d i f f i c u l t i e s s t u d y i n g . These t h i n g s d i d not have much e f f e c t on degree completion; having problems r e l a t e d t o work, coping w i t h the combined work and student r o l e s , d i d . Re-entry students were more l i k e l y t o a t t r i b u t e p e r s o n a l problems and d e f i c i e n c i e s t o themselves, w i t h these and f i n a n c i a l problems a p p a r e n t l y having some e f f e c t on degree-completion f o r them. Hypothesis 6 i n t o t a l i s not supported by the data. Support has l i t t l e or no d i s c e r n i b l e e f f e c t . While problems d i d have some e f f e c t , e s p e c i a l l y work- or j o b - r e l a t e d problems f o r A d u l t E n t r y students, problems w i t h f a m i l y and other people were not o f t e n mentioned and had l i t t l e e f f e c t . 143 The v a r i a b l e s i n Hypothesis 6 d i d seem t o have some e f f e c t on p e r s i s t e n c e but not i n d i f f e r e n t i a t i n g A d u l t E n t r y from Re-entry students. Thus, viewing them as mediating v a r i a b l e s does not make much sense. To determine how these v a r i a b l e s work wi t h others t o a f f e c t p e r s i s t e n c e r e q u i r e s m u l t i v a r i a t e a n a l y s i s , which i s r e p o r t e d i n the next c h a p t e r . Summary Table 32 i s an expansion of p a r t of Table 3 (p. 5 7 ) . The hypothesized r e l a t i o n s h i p s d i s c u s s e d i n t h i s Chapter are examined f o r support from a v a i l a b l e d a ta. While d i f f e r e n c e s were found between p e r s i s t e r s and n o n - p e r s i s t e r s , fewer were found between the A d u l t E n t r y and Re-entry c a t e g o r i e s of students, and the hypotheses r e l a t i n g these c a t e g o r i e s and degree-completion c o u l d not be supported. S a t i s f a c t i o n , support, and problems d i d not perform as mediating v a r i a b l e s between A d u l t E n t r y and Re-entry s t a t u s and degree completion. These P a r t i c i p a t i o n v a r i a b l e s would seem, o b v i o u s l y , t o be i n t e r v e n i n g or mediating v a r i a b l e s — a t l e a s t i n an " h i s t o r i c a l " sense:—but the r e s u l t s of the study do not support the c o n j e c t u r e t h a t they mediate between A d u l t Entry/Re-entry and degree-completion. TABLE 32: SUPPORT FOR PREDICTIONS FROM CHAPTER 3: PARTICIPATION FACTORS AND ENTRY STATUS Category: Support Re-entry A d u l t E n t r y from Data? Hy p o t h e s i s 5: d e l a y e d a p p l i c a t i o n ( c r e d e n t i a l emphasis) c o m f o r t a b l e w i t h o t h e r s t u d e n t s , s c h o l a s t i c environment h i g h s a t i s f a c t i o n immediate a p p l i c a t i o n ( c o n t e n t / s k i l l ) emphasis problems w i t h o t h e r s t u d e n t s , s c h o l a s t i c environment low s a t i s f a c t i o n H y p o t h e s i s 6: p e r c e i v e h i g h e r l e v e l of support from f a m i l y and o t h e r s fewer f i n a n c i a l and o t h e r problems p e r c e i v e lower l e v e l of support from f a m i l y and o t h e r s more f i n a n c i a l and ot h e r problems * i n d i c a t e s p o s s i b l e r e l a t i o n s h i p w i t h d e g r e e - c o m p l e t i o n ** i n d i c a t e s d e f i n i t e r e l a t i o n s h i p w i t h d e g r e e - c o m p l e t i o n 145 I f the c a t e g o r i e s i n the t a b l e had been degree- completer and non-completer, the r e s u l t s would have been d i f f e r e n t . The a s t e r i s k s i n Table 32 i n d i c a t e probable r e l a t i o n s h i p s w i t h degree completion, with the h y p o t h e s i z e d d i f f e r e n c e s between Re-entry and A d u l t E n t r y i n s t e a d e x i s t i n g between degree-completers and non-completers. Double a s t e r i s k s i n d i c a t e s t r o n g e r , more c e r t a i n r e l a t i o n s h i p s . S a t i s f a c t i o n with v a r i o u s aspects of the student experience was r e l a t e d t o degree-completion, i n c l u d i n g s a t i s f a c t i o n with s o c i a l l i f e and i n s t r u c t o r c o n t a c t . However, most respondents were s a t i s f i e d w i t h t h e i r u n i v e r s i t y time; o n l y with c o u n s e l l i n g d i d more students express d i s s a t i s f a c t i o n than s t a t e they were v e r y s a t i s f i e d . Problems a f f e c t e d p e r s i s t e n c e mainly because work- r e l a t e d problems were so s t r o n g l y r e l a t e d t o non-completion by A d u l t E n t r y s t u d e n t s . Although A d u l t E n t r y and Re-entry students r e p o r t e d d i f f e r e n t kinds of problems these d i f f e r e n c e s d i d not a f f e c t degree-completion. A d u l t E n t r y students emphasized problems w i t h s t u d y i n g or c o p i n g w i t h the new student r o l e ; Re-entry students emphasized p e r s o n a l d e f i c i e n c i e s and f i n a n c i a l problems. (This was c o n t r a r y t o e x p e c t a t i o n . ) Number of persons e x p r e s s i n g support or o p p o s i t i o n was not a u s e f u l p r e d i c t o r of completion. In Chapter 7, m u l t i v a r i a t e techniques are used t o analyze the r e l a t i v e importance of these v a r i a b l e s and those 146 examined i n Chapter 5, and how they work i n combination t o a f f e c t degree completion. 147 CHAPTER 7: PREDICTING DEGREE-COMPLETION: USE OF MULTIPLE REGRESSION AND DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS I n t r o d u c t i o n In Chapters 5 and 6 on h y p o t h e s i s - t e s t i n g , moderate r e l a t i o n s h i p s between background and p a r t i c i p a t i o n v a r i a b l e s and degree-completion were documented. However, the f i n d i n g s are s t i l l inadequate t o serve as a p r a c t i c a l b a s i s f o r p r e d i c t i n g which i n d i v i d u a l s w i l l p e r s i s t t o degrees. In order t o make p r e d i c t i o n s s y s t e m a t i c a l l y , i t i s necessary t o understand two t h i n g s : which v a r i a b l e s have the g r e a t e s t p r e d i c t i v e power i n d i v i d u a l l y and how they i n t e r a c t . M u l t i v a r i a t e techniques d e a l w i t h combinations and i n t e r a c t i o n s of v a r i a b l e s . The techniques used i n t h i s chapter are m u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n and d i s c r i m i n a n t a n a l y s i s . M u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n i s the f i r s t m u l t i v a r i a t e technique used, p a r t l y because d i s c r i m i n a n t a n a l y s i s i s based on m u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n . M u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n i n d i c a t e s the amount of v a r i a n c e which can be accounted f o r u s i n g the v a r i a b l e s under study, and what combination best p r e d i c t s 148 degree completion (Norusis, 1985). D i s c r i m i n a n t a n a l y s i s i s emphasized because i t d e a l s w i t h the v a r i a b l e s which can be used t o d i s t i n g u i s h between degree-completers and non- completers (Cooley and Lohnes, 1981; K e r l i n g e r and Pedhazur, 1973). These analyses are c a r r i e d out w i t h t h r e e groups: the f u l l m a i l survey sample, and the A d u l t E n t r y and Re-entry groups. The A d u l t E n t r y and Re-entry groups of the sample were t r e a t e d s e p a r a t e l y f o r two reasons: f i r s t , because the e n t r y v a r i a b l e d i d not have the expected e f f e c t with the f u l l sample; second, because of the f i n d i n g of o p p o s i t e e f f e c t s of the e n t r y v a r i a b l e w i t h the survey and r e c o r d s data. Before the e x t e n s i v e treatment of the m u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n and d i s c r i m i n a n t a n a l y s e s , the simple Pearson c o r r e l a t i o n s with degree completion i n the t h r e e groups (the f u l l sample, and the Re-entry and A d u l t E n t r y subsamples) are examined, with the r e s u l t s f o r A d u l t E n t r y and Re-entry compared a f t e r the c o r r e l a t i o n s f o r the f u l l sample are r e p o r t e d . A f t e r the s e c t i o n on c o r r e l a t i o n , t h e r e are two major p a r t s of the chapter, one f o r m u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n and one f o r d i s c r i m i n a n t a n a l y s i s . Each p a r t has an i n t r o d u c t i o n t o the technique, then two s e c t i o n s : one on the a n a l y s i s of the f u l l sample, and one comparing analyses of the A d u l t E n t r y and Re-entry groups. 149 The chapter summary d e a l s mainly w i t h the r e l a t i v e c o n t r i b u t i o n of the d i f f e r e n t v a r i a b l e s t o an understanding of degree completion, as i n d i c a t e d i n the a n a l y s i s of the d i f f e r e n t groups i n t h i s c h a p ter. A l s o , t h e r e i s a d i s c u s s i o n of p r e d i c t i n g degree completion, t o the extent t h a t the data a v a i l a b l e here a l l o w . C o r r e l a t i o n s w i t h Degree Completion Before going on t o the r e g r e s s i o n and d i s c r i m i n a n t analyses i t i s worthwhile t o examine the simple Pearson c o r r e l a t i o n s between the v a r i o u s independent v a r i a b l e s and degree completion, the dependent v a r i a b l e i n t h i s r e s e a r c h . Many of the r e l a t i o n s h i p s — t h o s e which were c o n t a i n e d i n the hypotheses i n Chapter 3 — h a v e a l r e a d y been d i s c u s s e d i n the pr e v i o u s two c h a p t e r s . The simple c o r r e l a t i o n s w i l l be compared wi t h the c o n t r i b u t i o n s the v a r i a b l e s make t o the r e g r e s s i o n equations and d i s c r i m i n a n t f u n c t i o n s l a t e r i n the cha p t e r . (The complete c o r r e l a t i o n m a t r i c e s f o r a l l the v a r i a b l e s i n v o l v e d i n the m u l t i v a r i a t e analyses are r e p o r t e d i n Appendix D.) Table 33 g i v e s the c o r r e l a t i o n s w i t h degree completion f o r the sample. While the r e l a t i o n s h i p w i t h degree completion achieves s i g n i f i c a n c e f o r e i g h t of the v a r i a b l e s f o r the sample, none of the c o r r e l a t i o n s i s l a r g e r than 150 TABLE 33: CORRELATIONS OF BACKGROUND AND PARTICIPATION VARIABLES WITH DEGREE COMPLETION, FULL SAMPLE. Independent V a r i a b l e C o r r e l a t i o n Entry- -0.229* Time of D e c i s i o n 0.074 S o c i a l M o b i l i t y 0.145 E a r l y - c a r e e r M o b i l i t y 0.239* L e v e l of A s p i r a t i o n 0.325* De s i r e f o r Change 0.186* S a t i s f a c t i o n 0.333* Work-related Problems -0.225* Time s i n c e Enrollment -0.161* Grade P o i n t Average 0.195* Mother's Educa t i o n 0.078 * - s i g n i f i c a n t at p<.05 l e v e l 0.333. The j u s t i f i c a t i o n f o r m u l t i v a r i a t e a n a l y s i s i s t o attempt t o i n c r e a s e the p r e d i c t i v e power by c o n s i d e r i n g the combined e f f e c t s of two or more v a r i a b l e s s i m u l t a n e o u s l y . Two of the v a r i a b l e s have c l e a r l y the s t r o n g e s t r e l a t i o n s h i p s with degree completion: s a t i s f a c t i o n and l e v e l of a s p i r a t i o n . They are a l s o the only v a r i a b l e s t o have s i g n i f i c a n t e f f e c t s with both the A d u l t E n t r y and Re-entry groups. 151 Tab l e 34 compares the A d u l t E n t r y and Re-entry groups of the m a i l survey w i t h c o r r e l a t i o n s l i s t e d i n descending o r d e r of a b s o l u t e magnitude f o r each group. Three are s i g n i f i c a n t f o r A d u l t E n t r y , f i v e f o r Re-entry s t u d e n t s . That fewer c o r r e l a t i o n s are s i g n i f i c a n t w i t h the groups than w i t h the e n t i r e m a i l survey sample i s due t o sample s i z e . A l l of the c o r r e l a t i o n s of s i g n i f i c a n c e w i t h e i t h e r the Re- e n t r y or A d u l t E n t r y group are s i g n i f i c a n t at the 0.05 l e v e l w i t h the f u l l sample. TABLE 34: CORRELATIONS OF BACKGROUND AND PARTICIPATION VARIABLES WITH DEGREE COMPLETION, ADULT ENTRY AND RE-ENTRY COMPARED CORRELATIONS A d u l t E n t r y Re-entry Work-related Problems -0. 421* Grade P o i n t Average 0. 395* S a t i s f a c t i o n 0. 329* S a t i s f a c t i o n 0 . 320* L e v e l of A s p i r a t i o n 0. 306* L e v e l of A s p i r a t i o n 0 . 311* D e s i r e f o r Change 0. 182 E a r l y - c a r e e r M o b i l i t y 0 . 306* Grade P o i n t Average -0. 120 Time s i n c e E n r o l l m e n t 0. 252* S o c i a l M o b i l i t y 0. 096 Time of D e c i s i o n -0. 200 E a r l y - c a r e e r M o b i l i t y 0. 092 D e s i r e f o r Change 0. 187 Time s i n c e Enrollment 0. 086 S o c i a l M o b i l i t y 0 . 183 Mother's E d u c a t i o n 0. 059 Mother's E d u c a t i o n 0. 133 Time of D e c i s i o n -0. 017 Work-related Problems -0. 032 * - s i g n i f i c a n t at p<0.05 l e v e l 152 S a t i s f a c t i o n and l e v e l of a s p i r a t i o n (which have the l a r g e s t c o r r e l a t i o n s with degree completion i n the f u l l sample) appear i n both l i s t s , but the v a r i a b l e s with the l a r g e s t c o r r e l a t i o n s i n each are d i f f e r e n t . Work-related problems, which has a n o n s i g n i f i c a n t c o r r e l a t i o n of 0.032 with degree-completion i n the Re-entry group, c o r r e l a t e s -0.421 wit h degree-completion i n A d u l t E n t r y , up from -0.225 with f u l l sample. The importance of Work-related Problems f o r the A d u l t E n t r y group i s d i s c u s s e d i n Chapter 6. G.P.A. c o r r e l a t e s 0.395 i n the Re-entry group but onl y 0.195 with the f u l l sample and -0.120 wit h A d u l t E n t r y . (G.P.A. was cumulative G.P.A., based on a l l undergraduate courses taken by respondents at S.F.U. Thus, courses taken as t r a d i t i o n a l - a g e students are i n c l u d e d f o r Re-entry students, which makes comparison with A d u l t E n t r y a problem. Nonetheless, the importance of the cumulative G.P.A. wit h Re-entry students i s s t i l l r e l e v a n t . The e f f e c t of G.P.A. on p e r s i s t e n c e of A d u l t E n t r y students i s d i s c u s s e d l a t e r i n t h i s Chapter.) Two other v a r i a b l e s , e a r l y - c a r e e r m o b i l i t y and time s i n c e enrollment, have s i g n i f i c a n t c o r r e l a t i o n s f o r Re-entry but do not f o r A d u l t E n t r y s t u d e n t s . D e s i r e f o r change r e t a i n s approximately the same c o r r e l a t i o n as with the f u l l sample, but i s not s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t because of the s m a l l e r sample s i z e . E a r l y time of d e c i s i o n comes c l o s e to s i g n i f i c a n c e with degree completion f o r Re- 153 e n t r y but i s almost u n c o r r e l a t e d with degree completion f o r A d u l t E n t r y . I t i s noteworthy t h a t the c o r r e l a t i o n s which are s i g n i f i c a n t or c l o s e to s i g n i f i c a n t f o r the Re-entry students but not f o r the A d u l t E n t r y students c o u l d be i n t e r p r e t e d as c o r r e l a t i o n s with e d u c a t i o n a l or t r a d i t i o n a l v a r i a b l e s . On the other hand, w o r k - r e l a t e d problems, which has the s t r o n g e s t c o r r e l a t i o n with A d u l t E n t r y s t u d e n t s , might be seen as a non-educational ( e x t e r n a l or environmental) v a r i a b l e . Re-entry students had a l o n g e r c o n n e c t i o n with the e d u c a t i o n a l system and were l e s s i n v o l v e d e x t e r n a l l y ; A d u l t E n t r y students may have been more i n v o l v e d i n t h e i r c a r e e r s and other e x t e r n a l commitments. The c o r r e l a t i o n s from Tables 33 and 34, and o t h e r s from the c o r r e l a t i o n m a t rices i n Appendix D w i l l be r e f e r r e d t o d u r i n g the d i s c u s s i o n of the r e g r e s s i o n and d i s c r i m i n a n t a n a l y s e s . Regression M u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n has t r a d i t i o n a l l y been used i n attempts t o p r e d i c t success i n c o l l e g e . The f i r s t S t a t i s t i c a l Package f o r the S o c i a l Sciences manual (Nie, Bent, and H u l l , 1970) used, as an i l l u s t r a t i o n of the m u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n procedure, p r e - c o l l e g e v a r i a b l e s t o p r e d i c t freshmen G.P.A. A s t i n ' s (1975) study of dropouts used m u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n . Four of the examples of uses of 154 the technique i n K e r l i n g e r and Pedhazur's (197 3) textbook on m u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n are attempts t o p r e d i c t c o l l e g e success (achievement or p e r s i s t e n c e ) on the b a s i s of some combination of measures. I t i s almost as i f e d u c a t i o n a l r e s e a r c h e r s b e l i e v e d t h a t admissions departments i n post-secondary i n s t i t u t i o n s should have equations i n which t o plu g data about students and then use the r e s u l t s t o make p r e d i c t i o n s on t h i n g s l i k e 1.37 times v a r i a b l e XI p l u s 0.82 times v a r i a b l e X2 p l u s . . . . Such p r e c i s i o n c o u l d only be temporary: the equation would have t o be changed a t l e a s t y e a r l y w i t h d i f f e r e n t samples. The p r e c i s i o n i s m i s l e a d i n g — w h a t i s p o s s i b l e i s comparing the r e l a t i v e importance of d i f f e r e n t v a r i a b l e s . In f a c t , some r e s e a r c h i n d i c a t e s l i t t l e improvement i n p r e d i c t i o n over what would be ob t a i n e d from u s i n g the c o r r e l a t i o n s with a major p r e d i c t o r l i k e Grade P o i n t Average ( K e r l i n g e r and Pedhazur, 1973) or C o l l e g e Board score (Nie, Bent, and H u l l , 1970). However, the m u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n procedure i n d i c a t e s when some v a r i a b l e s should be emphasized or ignore d , and when combinations of v a r i a b l e s do add s i g n i f i c a n t l y t o p r e d i c t i o n . The a b i l i t y t o improve the s t r e n g t h of the p r e d i c t i o n can be e s p e c i a l l y u s e f u l i n s i t u a t i o n s such as the r e s e a r c h r e p o r t e d here where s e v e r a l v a r i a b l e s have c o r r e l a t i o n s around 0.3 wit h the dependent v a r i a b l e . 155 In a l l the r e g r e s s i o n analyses t h a t were c a r r i e d out f o r t h i s chapter, two methods of v a r i a b l e s e l e c t i o n were used (Nie, 1986). F i r s t , a l l v a r i a b l e s were i n c l u d e d by the f o r c e d - e n t r y (Enter) method, r e g a r d l e s s of t h e i r c o n t r i b u t i o n or s i g n i f i c a n c e . Then the Stepwise method was used, e n t e r i n g v a r i a b l e s one a t a time i n order of t h e i r c o n t r i b u t i o n t o the m u l t i p l e c o r r e l a t i o n and i n c l u d i n g a d d i t i o n a l v a r i a b l e s o n l y i f they met the t e s t of s i g n i f i c a n c e (p<0.05) f o r a d d i t i o n a l v a r i a n c e . The Stepwise method always y i e l d e d a more economical s o l u t i o n (fewer v a r i a b l e s ) , w i t h c l o s e t o the same m u l t i p l e c o r r e l a t i o n s (R) and v a r i a n c e (R ) as the f o r c e d - e n t r y method. In f a c t , -j Stepwise s e l e c t i o n u s u a l l y r e s u l t e d i n a h i g h e r A d j u s t e d R , which i s the p r e f e r r e d measure of goodness of f i t of the r e g r e s s i o n equation w i t h the p o p u l a t i o n from which the sample was s e l e c t e d . F u l l Sample Before comparing the A d u l t E n t r y and Re-entry subsamples, r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s i s was performed w i t h the f u l l sample of 106 respondents. Separate Stepwise a n a l y s e s , both i n c l u d i n g and e x c l u d i n g E n t r y as a v a r i a b l e , were performed as w e l l as. the t e n - v a r i a b l e r e g r e s s i o n . The r e s u l t s are shown i n Table 35. 156 TABLE 35: MULTIPLE REGRESSION: BACKGROUND AND PARTICIPATION VARIABLES AND DEGREE COMPLETION (FULL SAMPLE) Summary Table V a r i a b l e s (by order M u l t i p l e R R Square S i g n i - of e n t r y R Square A d j u s t e d F f i c a n c e ENTER ( a l l v a r i a b l e s ) 0.574 0.329 0.267 5.24 0.000 STEPWISE S a t i s f a c t i o n 0.326 0.106 0.097 12.33 0.001 L e v e l of A s p i r a t i o n 0.445 0.198 0.183 12.72 0.000 Grade P o i n t Average 0.487 0.237 0.214 10.55 0.000 Work-related Problems 0.522 0.272 0.243 9.44 0.000 Ent r y 0.554 0.307 0.272 8.85 0.000 As can be seen from Table 35, the r e s u l t s from f o r c e d - e n t r y (Enter) and Stepwise procedures are very s i m i l a r in m u l t i p l e R, R , and Adj u s t e d R . The r e s u l t s from both procedures are s i g n i f i c a n t . Stepwise r e g r e s s i o n r e s u l t s in a f i v e - v a r i a b l e equation a c c o u n t i n g f o r 2 7% to 30% of the 157 v a r i a n c e (R 2=0.307, Adj u s t e d R 2=0.272). The f i v e v a r i a b l e s are, i n order of the c o n t r i b u t i o n t o the equation, s a t i s f a c t i o n , l e v e l of a s p i r a t i o n , Grade P o i n t Average, w o r k - r e l a t e d problems, and e n t r y category (Adult E n t r y v s . R e - e n t r y ) . Because e n t r y d i d not p r e d i c t i n the hypothesized d i r e c t i o n with the m a i l survey, a second a n a l y s i s e x c l u d i n g e n t r y as a v a r i a b l e was c a r r i e d out. T h i s reduced the accounted v a r i a n c e by o n l y about 3% (R 2=0.272, Adj u s t e d R 2=0.243) and was s t i l l s i g n i f i c a n t . The r e s u l t i n g p r e d i c t i o n equations vary s l i g h t l y . The equations can be used t o p r e d i c t the l i k e l i h o o d of degree- completion (62% with the f u l l sample). Y' stands f o r p r e d i c t e d v a l u e of Y: the c l o s e r t h a t i s t o 1.00, the more l i k e l y the i n d i v i d u a l should be a degree-completer; the c l o s e r t o 0.00, the more l i k e l y the i n d i v i d u a l w i l l be a non-completer. With e n t r y i n c l u d e d , the equation i s : Y' = -0.612 + 0.077 ( S a t i s f a c t i o n ) +.076 ( L e v e l of A s p i r a t i o n ) +0.177 (G.P.A.) - 0.158 (Work-related Problems) -0.191 (Entry) (The c o e f f i c i e n t s can be simply m u l t i p l i e d by the i n d i v i d u a l s ' raw scores f o r the p a r t i c u l a r v a r i a b l e s ; -0.612 i s a co n s t a n t f o r t h i s equation.) With e n t r y l e f t out, the equation i s : Y' = -0.778 + 0.077 ( S a t i s f a c t i o n ) +0.082 ( L e v e l of A s p i r a t i o n ) + 0.177 (G.P.A.) - 0.156 (Work-related Problems) 158 As can be seen, two of the c o e f f i c i e n t s ( s a t i s f a c t i o n and G.P.A.) are i d e n t i c a l ; the c o e f f i c i e n t s f o r l e v e l of a s p i r a t i o n and w o r k - r e l a t e d problems change s l i g h t l y because the e f f e c t of these v a r i a b l e s d i f f e r s f o r the two e n t r y c a t e g o r i e s . The a b s o l u t e value of the cons t a n t i n c r e a s e s because t h e r e i s one fewer v a r i a b l e . As s t a t e d b e f o r e , the u t i l i t y of such equations i s somewhat d o u b t f u l . They do help i n understanding some of the f a c t o r s i n p e r s i s t e n c e / d r o p o u t ; what i s l e s s c l e a r i s the a p p r o p r i a t e n e s s of t h e i r use i n making p o l i c y d e c i s i o n s - e s p e c i a l l y i f p r e c i s i o n i s imputed t o them. They would be e n t i r e l y i n a p p r o p r i a t e f o r use i n admissions, f o r example, when a t l e a s t two of the v a r i a b l e s — G r a d e P o i n t Average and s a t i s f a c t i o n — a r e r e s u l t s of u n i v e r s i t y attendance and would not be a v a i l a b l e u n t i l a f t e r the a p p l i c a n t had been admitted and had completed at l e a s t a semester of coursework. In a d d i t i o n , w o r k - r e l a t e d problems i s a s u b j e c t i v e r e c a l l of the s i t u a t i o n a t the time of u n i v e r s i t y attendance, although the f a c t t h a t i t i s so f r e q u e n t l y r e c a l l e d as important by non-completers when they c o u l d have mentioned other kinds of problems i n d i c a t e s t h a t i t i s important i n some way. L e v e l of a s p i r a t i o n , l i k e s a t i s f a c t i o n , can a l s o be c o n s i d e r e d as a r e s u l t , as w e l l as a cause, of u n i v e r s i t y s u c c e s s . However, w h i l e the use of the r e g r e s s i o n equations f o r admissions i s d o u b t f u l , the f a c t t h a t f o u r v a r i a b l e s can account f o r a q u a r t e r of the v a r i a n c e i n d i c a t e s t h a t they 159 should be taken s e r i o u s l y . As w i l l be seen, two of the v a r i a b l e s — G . P . A . and w o r k - r e l a t e d p r o b l e m s — h a v e an i n t e r a c t i o n w i t h subsamples: G.P.A. w i t h Re-entry, and work- r e l a t e d problems w i t h A d u l t E n t r y ; s a t i s f a c t i o n w i t h the u n i v e r s i t y experience may be the f i r s t v a r i a b l e i n the o v e r a l l r e g r e s s i o n (accounting f o r approximately 10% of the v a r i a n c e by i t s e l f ) simply because i t has a s i m i l a r e f f e c t w ith both Re-entry and A d u l t E n t r y . L e v e l of a s p i r a t i o n i s only i n c l u d e d i n the A d u l t E n t r y r e g r e s s i o n when the c r i t e r i a f o r i n c l u s i o n of v a r i a b l e s are r e l a x e d ; i t does not appear i n the equation f o r Re-entry. I t s presence i n the o v e r a l l equation must be due t o some, however moderate, i n f l u e n c e on degree-completion w i t h both groups. A d u l t E n t r y and Re-entry Compared As was seen i n Chapter 5, the hypothesis t h a t Re-entry students were more l i k e l y t o complete degrees than A d u l t E n t r y students would seem t o be supported by the data from the Student Records. However, A d u l t E n t r y students were more l i k e l y t o complete degrees than Re-entry students among the respondents to the m a i l survey. T e s t i n g r e g r e s s i o n models with separate groups i s worthwhile i n any case, e s p e c i a l l y when some of the independent v a r i a b l e s are expected t o behave d i f f e r e n t l y with each of the groups. Given the d i f f e r e n c e between the r e c o r d s data and the m a i l survey i n the e f f e c t of the e n t r y v a r i a b l e , i t was seen as 160 e s p e c i a l l y important t o perform a r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s i s w i t h each of the Re-entry and A d u l t E n t r y groups. The r e s u l t s c o n f i r m e d the u s e f u l n e s s of the procedure as the s e p a r a t e r e g r e s s i o n s accounted f o r more of the v a r i a n c e than d i d the e q u a t i o n f o r the f u l l sample. In a d d i t i o n , d i f f e r e n t v a r i a b l e s were i n d i c a t e d as the most important p r e d i c t o r s f o r the two groups, and a new v a r i a b l e was exposed as important, one which had o p p o s i t e e f f e c t s with the two groups. While the E n t e r e q u a t i o n s ( a l l v a r i a b l e s i n c l u d e d ) f o r both groups gave v e r y s i m i l a r r e s u l t s (see T a b l e 36), the i n i t i a l Stepwise a n a l y s i s r e s u l t e d i n o n l y a o n e - v a r i a b l e e q u a t i o n f o r A d u l t E n t r y w i t h an R v a l u e l e s s than h a l f t h a t f o r the t h r e e - v a r i a b l e Re-entry e q u a t i o n . Because of the anomalous r e s u l t s f o r A d u l t E n t r y , o t h e r methods of v a r i a b l e s e l e c t i o n were attempted (Nie, 1906). Forward s e l e c t i o n , r e q u i r i n g v a r i a b l e s ' m e e t the c r i t e r i o n f o r e n t r y i n t o the e q u a t i o n but not t e s t i n g f o r removal, r e s u l t e d i n no change. Backward s e l e c t i o n , however, not r e q u i r i n g t h a t v a r i a b l e s meet the c r i t e r i o n f o r i n c l u s i o n but o n l y t h a t they meet the c r i t e r i o n f o r removal r e s u l t e d i n a f o u r - v a r i a b l e e q u a t i o n . 161 TABLE 36: MULTIPLE REGRESSION: BACKGROUND AND PARTICIPATION VARIABLES AND DEGREE COMPLETION (ADULT ENTRY AND RE-ENTRY COMPARED) Summary Table V a r i a b l e s (by order of e n t r y M u l t i p l e R R Square R Square A d j u s t e d S i g n i - f i c a n c e A d u l t E n t r y ENTER (10 v a r i a b l e s ) 0.638 STEPWISE Work-related Problems (L e v e l of A s p i r a t i o n ) ( S a t i s f a c t i o n ] ( E a r l y - c a r e e r M o b i l i t y ) ( l a s t 0.406 0.481 0.559 0.601 0.407 0.165 0.232 0.313 0.362 0.275 0.146 0.195 0.263 0.298 3.08 8.50 6.33 6.22 5.66 0.009 0.006 0.004 0.001 0.000 v a r i a b l e s with a l t e r e d c r i t e r i o n f o r v , , . 9 s i g n i f i c a n c e of change i n R^ of 0.10 r a t h e r than 0.05) Re-entry ENTER (10 v a r i a b l e s ) 0.613 0.376 STEPWISE Grade P o i n t Average 0.369 0.137 S a t i s f a c t i o n 0.478 0.228 E a r l y - c a r e e r M o b i l i t y 0.568 0.323 0.263 0.120 0.198 0.281 3.31 8.06 7.40 7.78 0.005 0.006 0.002 0.000 (no a d d i t i o n a l v a r i a b l e s with a l t e r e d c r i t e r i o n of entry] 162 There i s j u s t i f i c a t i o n f o r u s i n g t h i s procedure, as can be seen i n Table 36. F i r s t , g iven the r e s u l t s of the f o r c e d 9 e n t r y equation (R between 0.275 and 0.407), s e t t l i n g f o r an equation a c c o u n t i n g f o r as l i t t l e v a r i a n c e as the one- v a r i a b l e e quation would be g i v i n g up too soon. Second, the reason t h e r e i s o n l y one v a r i a b l e u s i n g p<0.05 f o r the s i g n i f i c a n c e i n the change i n R i s probably due simply t o the overwhelming e f f e c t of w o r k - r e l a t e d problems as a v a r i a b l e . I t can be seen t h a t t h e r e i s a l a r g e r change i n 9 . . R with the a d d i t i o n of s a t i s f a c t i o n (0.081) than w i t h the a d d i t i o n of l e v e l of a s p i r a t i o n (0.067) and, i n f a c t , the change f o r the a d d i t i o n of s a t i s f a c t i o n i s s i g n i f i c a n t a t the 0.05 l e v e l (p=0.033). So, s a t i s f a c t i o n appears t o be a s i g n i f i c a n t v a r i a b l e f o r A d u l t E n t r y , although an e q u a t i o n i n c l u d i n g i t can only be developed u s i n g r e l a x e d c r i t e r i a or Backward s e l e c t i o n . So, f o r the A d u l t E n t r y group by f a r the most important f a c t o r c o n t r i b u t i n g t o degree completion i s an absence of w o r k - r e l a t e d problems. By i t s e l f , i t accounts f o r between 14.5% and 16.5% of the v a r i a n c e , almost h a l f of the t o t a l f o r the f o u r v a r i a b l e e q u a t i o n . The o t h e r t h r e e v a r i a b l e s , each making a moderate c o n t r i b u t i o n , are s a t i s f a c t i o n , l e v e l of a s p i r a t i o n and e a r l y — c a r e e r downward m o b i l i t y . The r e g r e s s i o n equation f o r A d u l t E n t r y i s : 163 Y' = 0.202 - 0.256 (Work-related Problems) + 0.131 (Le v e l of A s p i r a t i o n ) + 0.060 ( S a t i s f a c t i o n ) - 0.107 ( E a r l y - c a r e e r M o b i l i t y ) (The equation f o r the o n e - v a r i a b l e r e g r e s s i o n i s Y' = 0.887 - 0.314 [Work-related Problems].) The l a s t v a r i a b l e i n the A d u l t E n t r y r e g r e s s i o n i s e a r l y - c a r e e r m o b i l i t y , movement from f i r s t o c c u p a t i o n h e l d f o r a year or more t o occ u p a t i o n h e l d at the time of r e g i s t r a t i o n or r e - r e g i s t r a t i o n as a u n i v e r s i t y student. A d u l t E n t r y students were s l i g h t l y more l i k e l y t o complete degrees i f they were downwardly mobile i n t h e i r o c cupations b e f o r e s t a r t i n g u n i v e r s i t y than i f they were upwardly mobile. (This i s o p p o s i t e t o the s i t u a t i o n f o r the Re-entry group, as w i l l be seen.) One might suggest t h a t work r e s p o n s i b i l i t i e s would be g r e a t e r f o r those who are s u c c e s s f u l i n t h e i r c a r e e r s , who would more l i k e l y be upwardly mobile. A l s o , success o u t s i d e e d u c a t i o n c o u l d r e s u l t i n l e s s m o t i v a t i o n t o pursue i t i n s i d e . Thus, one might conclude from the v a r i a b l e s i n c l u d e d i n the r e g r e s s i o n equation t h a t c a r e e r success has a ne g a t i v e e f f e c t on p e r s i s t e n c e t o degrees by those who s t a r t i n u n i v e r s i t y as a d u l t s . L e v e l of a s p i r a t i o n i s l i k e w i s e a c a r e e r - r e l a t e d v a r i a b l e ; o n l y s a t i s f a c t i o n i s d i r e c t l y r e l a t e d t o e d u c a t i o n a l e x p e r i e n c e . In the sample f o r t h i s r e s e a r c h , over t h r e e - q u a r t e r s of the A d u l t E n t r y group had completed 164 degrees; i t appears t h a t an important f a c t o r i s t h a t t h e i r c a r e e r s d i d not i n t e r f e r e . For the Re-entry group, Grade P o i n t Average has a c o n s i d e r a b l e impact, c o n t r i b u t i n g almost as much v a r i a n c e as wo r k - r e l a t e d problems does f o r A d u l t E n t r y (R between 12.0% and 13.7%), but the other two v a r i a b l e s , s a t i s f a c t i o n and e a r l y - c a r e e r m o b i l i t y , c o n t r i b u t e t o the r e g r e s s i o n at the p <0.05 l e v e l . (Use of Forward, Backward, and Stepwise s e l e c t i o n at p <0.10 d i d not change r e s u l t s . ) Again, s a t i s f a c t i o n makes a f a i r l y s m a l l c o n t r i b u t i o n , but i n the same d i r e c t i o n as f o r A d u l t E n t r y ; i t s importance i n the o v e r a l l r e g r e s s i o n f o r the mailed survey i s thus due t o making a c o n s i s t e n t c o n t r i b u t i o n . So, f o r the Re-entry group G.P.A., an aspect of t h e i r e d u c a t i o n a l e x p e r i e n c e , has the g r e a t e s t impact. E a r l y - c a r e e r M o b i l i t y i s a l s o p a r t of the r e g r e s s i o n e quation f o r Re-entry; the reason i t i s not i n c l u d e d i n the o v e r a l l equation i s t h a t i t s e f f e c t f o r Re-entry i s o p p o s i t e t o t h a t f o r A d u l t E n t r y . The equation f o r Re-entry i s : Y' = -0.130 + 0.245 (G.P.A.) +0.093 ( S a t i s f a c t i o n ) + 0.116 ( E a r l y - c a r e e r M o b i l i t y ) Upward m o b i l i t y i n e a r l y c a r e e r development has a s l i g h t p o s i t i v e c o r r e l a t i o n , r a t h e r than downward m o b i l i t y as with A d u l t E n t r y students. G e n e r a l l y , one would expect Re-entry students t o be l e s s i n v o l v e d w i t h t h e i r c a r e e r s 165 than A d u l t E n t r y having spent more time i n formal e d u c a t i o n . Some success might be an encouragement r a t h e r than a burden. A l s o , as mentioned b e f o r e , the f i r s t job f o r Re-entry students was o f t e n not regarded by the students as a s i g n i f i c a n t stage i n t h e i r c a r e e r . The main d i f f e r e n c e between the two r e g r e s s i o n s i s the d i f f e r e n c e i n the primary v a r i a b l e s . The e f f e c t f o r e a r l y - c a r e e r m o b i l i t y i s o p p o s i t e f o r the two groups of students, but i t appears reasonable and the e f f e c t i n both cases i s s m a l l . The importance of G.P.A. f o r Re-entry students (and Re-entry students o n l y , apparently) has been d i s c u s s e d b e f o r e . The p o s s i b i l i t y t h a t low G.P.A. from b e f o r e i n i t i a l stop-out or dropout r e p r e s e n t s a handicap f o r some has t o be c o n s i d e r e d . Work-related problems i s an important v a r i a b l e o n l y w i t h the A d u l t E n t r y subsample. While i t i s d i f f i c u l t t o g e n e r a l i z e about degree completion among A d u l t E n t r y students, w i t h only 12 non-completers among the group, 9 of the 11 who responded t o t h i s g u e s t i o n r e p o r t e d t h a t work- r e l a t e d problems were i n t e r f e r i n g w i t h t h e i r academic c a r e e r s and only 8 of 29 responding degree-completers r e p o r t e d having any problems r e l a t e d t o work. From a l l t h i s , two p r o f i l e s emerge. For A d u l t E n t r y students, success or degree completion i s based e i t h e r on presence of a c o n s i d e r a b l e burden of w o r k - r e l a t e d problems or on a b i l i t y t o cope with work and student r o l e s . In some cases, the s i t u a t i o n s may have been beyond the students' 166 c o n t r o l . For other students, perhaps having a l r e a d y experienced some c a r e e r success, t h e r e may not be s t r o n g f e e l i n g s of need t o succeed i n u n i v e r s i t y , so i f t h e r e are c o n f l i c t s with work or i f h i g h e r e d u c a t i o n does not meet e x p e c t a t i o n s , the students may drop out. For Re-entry students, success may be more r e l a t e d t o a b i l i t y t o d e a l w i t h one's e d u c a t i o n a l h i s t o r y and the r e s u l t i n g handicaps. These are i n d i v i d u a l s a l r e a d y s o c i a l i z e d t o t h i n k of l i f e success i n e d u c a t i o n a l terms so c a r e e r success may spur r a t h e r than hi n d e r completing a degree. The requirement f o r success may be being a b l e t o achieve a c a d e m i c a l l y or at l e a s t not being hindered by a low G.P.A. These p r o f i l e s are r e i n f o r c e d when d i s c r i m i n a n t a n a l y s i s i s a p p l i e d t o the data. D i s c r i m i n a n t A n a l y s i s D i s c r i m i n a n t a n a l y s i s has two purposes (Noru s i s , 1985; K e r l i n g e r and Pedhazur, 1973). One of these purposes i s c l a s s i f i c a t i o n : how w e l l does the d i s c r i m i n a n t f u n c t i o n d i s c r i m i n a t e between groups? What p r o p o r t i o n of the i n d i v i d u a l s are c o r r e c t l y p l a c e d a c c o r d i n g t o the d i s c r i m i n a n t f u n c t i o n ? In a d d i t i o n , d i f f e r e n c e s between groups i n accuracy of c l a s s i f i c a t i o n may be of i n t e r e s t . C l a s s i f i c a t i o n s are r e p o r t e d f o r t h r e e separate d i s c r i m i n a n t 167 analyses, with the f u l l sample, and w i t h the Re-entry and A d u l t E n t r y groups s e p a r a t e l y . The second purpose of d i s c r i m i n a n t a n a l y s i s i s an examination of the nature of the d i f f e r e n c e s between the groups. What i s i t t h a t d i s c r i m i n a t e s degree-completers from non-completers? The emphasis i s on e x p l a n a t i o n r a t h e r than p r e d i c t i o n . Being able to understand the d i f f e r e n c e s between degree-completers and non-completers i s more important i n theory development than being a b l e t o p r e d i c t chances of degree completion ( K e r l i n g e r and Pedhazur, 1973, p. 341). F u l l Sample The v a r i a n c e accounted f o r by d i s c r i m i n a n t a n a l y s i s i s almost always higher than t h a t from m u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n . (Compare the r e s u l t s r e p o r t e d below wi t h Table 35.) D i s c r i m i n a n t a n a l y s i s i s s p e c i f i c a l l y designed f o r c a t e g o r i c a l v a r i a b l e s and, t h e r e f o r e , may work more s u c c e s s f u l l y with these data. The e l e v e n - v a r i a b l e equation u s i n g the f o r c e d - e n t r y ( D i r e c t ) method accounts f o r 34.8% of the v a r i a n c e (Table 37). (Variance can be c a l c u l a t e d e i t h e r by u s i n g the square of the c a n o n i c a l c o r r e l a t i o n , or p r e f e r a b l y 1-lambda, lambda being an i n v e r s e measure.) 168 TABLE 37: DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS USING THE DIRECT METHOD: SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR DEGREE COMPLETION (FULL SAMPLE) C l a s s i f i c a t i o n : 'Actual Group: No degree Degree Number of Cases 41 65 P r e d i c t e d Group: No degree Degree 78.4%(32) 21.6%(9) 24.6%(16) 75.4%(49) i C o r r e c t c l a s s i f i c a t i o n : 76.4% C a n o n i c a l C o r r e l a t i o n 0.590 Wi l k s ' Lambda 0.652 S i g n i f i c a n c e p =0.001 (X 2=30.586, d.f.=11) T h i s i s not quite as good as the s i x - v a r i a b l e Wilks method equation using entry as one of the v a r i a b l e s but s l i g h t l y b e t t e r than the r e s u l t s with a f o u r - v a r i a b l e e q u a t i o n from the Wilks method of s e l e c t i o n when entry i s excluded as a v a r i a b l e . (See Tables 38 and 39). The r e s u l t s u s i n g the Wilks method are, however, acceptable, and the d i s c r i m i n a n t equations have the advantage of greater parsimony. 169 In Tables 38 and 39 the two analyses u s i n g Wilks method are r e p o r t e d . I n c l u d i n g e n t r y r e s u l t s i n a c c o u n t i n g f o r 39% of the v a r i a n c e (Table 38); e x c l u d i n g i t because i t s e f f e c t i s o p p o s i t e t o the hypothesized d i r e c t i o n r e s u l t s i n a f o u r - v a r i a b l e equation accounting f o r 30.4% (Table 39). S a t i s f a c t i o n i s the f i r s t v a r i a b l e ( r e s u l t s i n the l a r g e s t r e d u c t i o n i n lambda) and l e v e l of a s p i r a t i o n i s the second i n both cases. Work-related problems and Grade P o i n t Average are i n c l u d e d i n both equations. While they c o n t r i b u t e s l i g h t l y l e s s r e d u c t i o n i n lambda when e n t r y i s excluded as a v a r i a b l e , they c o n t r i b u t e more t o the d i s c r i m i n a n t f u n c t i o n (higher c o e f f i c i e n t s ) and have h i g h e r c o r r e l a t i o n s w i t h the f u n c t i o n . T h i s i n d i c a t e s t h a t the s i m p l e r f u n c t i o n may be more c l e a r l y d e f i n e d . Time at u n i v e r s i t y , which has a s m a l l e f f e c t when e n t r y i s i n c l u d e d , i s not i n c l u d e d i n the s i m p l e r equation. As may be noted, the v a r i a b l e s s e l e c t e d by Wilks method are the ones wi t h the g r e a t e s t c o r r e l a t i o n w i t h the d i s c r i m i n a n t f u n c t i o n u s i n g the D i r e c t method, except f o r e a r l y - c a r e e r m o b i l i t y which i s not i n c l u d e d . So, based on the a n a l y s i s of the f u l l sample, s a t i s f a c t i o n w i t h the u n i v e r s i t y experience, a high l e v e l of a s p i r a t i o n f o r f u r t h e r c a r e e r m o b i l i t y , high Grade P o i n t Average, and absence of w o r k - r e l a t e d problems d i s t i n g u i s h 170 TABLE 38 DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS USING WILKS METHOD: BACKGROUND AND PARTICIPATION VARIABLES, INCLUDING ENTRY, AND DEGREE COMPLETION (FULL SAMPLE) Independent D i s c r i m . C o r r e l a t i o n S i g n i - V a r i a b l e F u n c t i o n w i t h i n W i l k s ' f i c a n c e C o e f f i c i e n t F u n c t i o n Lambda S a t i s f a c t i o n 0.659 0.434 0.893 0.003 L e v e l of A s p i r a t i o n 0.505 0.424 0.790 0.000 Ent r y -0.570 -0.367 0.729 0.000 Work-related Problems -0.474 -0.320 0.672 0.000 Grade P o i n t Average 0.353 0.245 0.626 0.000 Time s i n c e Enrollment 0.276 0.190 0.610 0.000 Summary S t a t i s t i c s : C a n o n i c a l C o r r e l a t i o n : 0.625 S i g n i f i c a n c e : p=0.000 (X 2=36.099, d.f.=6) C l a s s i f i c a t i o n : Number P r e d i c t e d Group: A c t u a l Group: of Cases No degree Degree No degree 41 80.5%(33) 19.5%(8) Degree 65 26.2%(17) 73.8%(48) C o r r e c t c l a s s i f i c a t i o n : 76.2% 171 TABLE 39: DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS USING WILKS METHOD: BACKGROUND AND PARTICIPATION VARIABLES, NOT INCLUDING ENTRY, AND DEGREE COMPLETION (FULL SAMPLE) Independent Discrim. Correlation S i g n i - Variable Function within Wilks' ficance C o e f f i c i e n t Function lambda S a t i s f a c t i o n 0.7.07 0.525 0.893 0.003 Level of Aspiration 0.618 0.513 0.790 0.000 Work-related Problems -0.476 -0.388 0.736 0.000 Grade Point Average 0.428 0.297 0.696 0.000 Summary S t a t i s t i c s : Canonical c o r r e l a t i o n 0 .551 Significance p=0 .000 (X2= >26.785, d .f.=4) C l a s s i f i c a t i o n : Number Predicted Group: Actual Group: of Cases No degree Degree No degree 41 78.5% (32) 22.0% (9 Degree 65 21.5% (14) 78.5% (51) Correct c l a s s i f i c a t i o n : 78.3% 172 degree-completers from non-completers. If entry i s included as a variable, Adult Entry status and a longer time since enrollment (not surprising, as dropouts would usually spend a shorter time) are added as discriminating v a r i a b l e s . A l l of these variables, except for time since enrollment, are the same as those i n the multiple regression (Table 36). As w i l l be seen, s a t i s f a c t i o n i s a variable i n the discriminant functions for both Adult Entry and Re-entry sub-samples. Work-related problems contribute to the Adult Entry function only, Grade Point Average to Re-Entry—as with regression. Level of aspiration does not survive i n the sub-group discriminants. This variable, which indicates desire for further upward s o c i a l mobility, thus appears to d i f f e r e n t i a t e degree-completers from non- completers when a l l adult students are considered, but i s not useful when analyzing the separate Adult Entry and Re- entry categories. Other variables w i l l be considered when the discriminants for Adult Entry and Re-entry are compared. The c l a s s i f i c a t i o n r esults for the Direct method and both Wilks procedures (including and excluding entry as a variable) are i n each case s l i g h t l y d i f f e r e n t . The best o v e r a l l r e s u l t i s for Wilks without entry, mainly because the r e s u l t s for degree-completers are more successful. This i s another i n d i c a t i o n that the simpler equation i s at least as useful as the others. However, a l l differences i n c l a s s i f i c a t i o n are s l i g h t . The r e s u l t s , between 75% and 80% 173 i n each case, are not p a r t i c u l a r l y i m p r e s s i v e . The d i s c r i m i n a n t f u n c t i o n s are only moderately e f f e c t i v e i n c l a s s i f i c a t i o n . I t appears t h a t a combination of e d u c a t i o n a l experience, v o c a t i o n a l h i s t o r y , and a s p i r a t i o n v a r i a b l e s best d i s c r i m i n a t e s between degree-completers and non- completers. A d u l t students are more l i k e l y t o complete degrees i f they are s a t i s f i e d w i t h t h e i r u n i v e r s i t y e xperience, i f they are able t o i n t e g r a t e t h e i r work and e d u c a t i o n a l l i v e s , and i f they have high v o c a t i o n a l a s p i r a t i o n s . Work and e d u c a t i o n are the r e l e v a n t environments f o r a d u l t male students and both must be c o n s i d e r e d when p r e d i c t i n g e d u c a t i o n a l p e r s i s t e n c e or dropout. A d u l t E n t r y and Re-entry Compared Because of the ambiguity of the e f f e c t of the e n t r y v a r i a b l e , separate analyses were performed f o r A d u l t E n t r y and Re-entry st u d e n t s . The e f f e c t s of w o r k - r e l a t e d problems and Grade P o i n t Average are b e t t e r analyzed f o r t h e i r e f f e c t s w i t h the separate d i s c r i m i n a n t s f o r the subsamples. Table 40 r e p o r t s the r e s u l t s f o r f o r c e d - e n t r y ( D i r e c t ) analyses f o r separate A d u l t E n t r y and Re-entry groups. While the r e d u c t i o n i n lambda i s g r e a t e r , the c a n o n i c a l c o r r e l a t i o n i s higher, and the c l a s s i f i c a t i o n i s somewhat more s u c c e s s f u l f o r the A d u l t E n t r y group, the r e s u l t i n g d i s c r i m i n a n t f u n c t i o n i s not s i g n i f i c a n t at the 0.05 l e v e l 174 TABLE 4 0 DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS USING DIRECT METHOD: SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR DEGREE COMPLETION (ADULT ENTRY AND RE-ENTRY COMPARED). Ad u l t E n t r y : C a n o n i c a l C o r r e l a t i o n W i l k s ' Lambda S i g n i f i c a n c e C o r r e c t c l a s s i f i c a t i o n Re-Entry: C a n o n i c a l C o r r e l a t i o n W i l k s ' Lambda S i g n i f i c a n c e C o r r e c t c l a s s i f i c a t i o n 0.669 0.552 p=0.082 (X 2=16.655, d.f.=10) 84.1% 0.638 0.593 p=0.036 (X 2=19.336, d.f.=10) 79.2% (p=0.082). T h i s i s p a r t l y because of too many v a r i a b l e s and too few cases. For Re-entry, the r e s u l t s are a t l e a s t s i g n i f i c a n t by c h i square, because t h e r e are more Re-entry students i n the sample. While Wilks s e l e c t i o n r e s u l t s i n comparable r e s u l t s t o those with D i r e c t f o r Re-entry (Table 42), f o r A d u l t E n t r y the r e s u l t s are i n f a c t much b e t t e r (Table 41). The f a c t t h a t 10 v a r i a b l e s account f o r l e s s v a r i a n c e than t h r e e means not only t h a t a d d i t i o n a l v a r i a b l e s do not help but a l s o t h a t they d e t r a c t from the e f f e c t i v e n e s s of the f u n c t i o n . 175 As can be seen from Tables 41 and 42, the t h r e e - v a r i a b l e d i s c r i m i n a n t f u n c t i o n f o r A d u l t E n t r y accounts f o r c o n s i d e r a b l y more v a r i a n c e than the s i x - v a r i a b l e f u n c t i o n f o r Re-entry. In f a c t , lambda i s reduced more by one v a r i a b l e i n the A d u l t E n t r y d i s c r i m i n a n t than by a l l the v a r i a b l e s i n the Re-entry case. Work-related problems reduces lambda t o 0.595 wit h A d u l t E n t r y compared t o 0.606 f o r s i x v a r i a b l e s with Re-entry. T h i s f i n d i n g underscores the importance of w o r k - r e l a t e d problems f o r the A d u l t E n t r y s tudents, as d i s c u s s e d i n the s e c t i o n on r e g r e s s i o n . The other v a r i a b l e s i n the f u n c t i o n f o r A d u l t E n t r y are s a t i s f a c t i o n and, d e s p i t e a low c o r r e l a t i o n w i t h the f u n c t i o n i t s e l f , s o c i a l m o b i l i t y . T h i s i s the f i r s t appearance f o r s o c i a l m o b i l i t y as a v a r i a b l e of s i g n i f i c a n c e f o r survey respondents (Table 41). However, i t s importance appears t o be simply i n c o n t r i b u t i n g t o the d i s c r i m i n a n t f u n c t i o n , w i t h no r e a l r e l a t i o n s h i p t o degree-completion. The c l a s s i f i c a t i o n r e s u l t s f o r the Wilks method and f o r c e d - e n t r y are e x a c t l y the same f o r A d u l t E n t r y (see Table 40), so the more e f f i c i e n t t h r e e - v a r i a b l e f u n c t i o n works at l e a s t as w e l l , and i s b e t t e r on most s t a t i s t i c a l grounds. For the Re-entry group, the same v a r i a b l e s as i n the r e g r e s s i o n , Grade P o i n t Average, s a t i s f a c t i o n , and e a r l y - c a r e e r m o b i l i t y make the g r e a t e s t c o n t r i b u t i o n t o the d i s c r i m i n a n t f u n c t i o n . In a d d i t i o n , t h r e e v a r i a b l e s are 176 TABLE 41 DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS USING WILKS METHOD: BACKGROUND AND PARTICIPATION VARIABLES AND DEGREE COMPLETION (ADULT E N T R Y ) . Independent D i s c r i m . C o r r e l a t i o n S i g n i - V a r i a b l e F u n c t i o n w i t h i n W i l k s ' f i c a n c e C o e f f i c i e n t F u n c t i o n lambda A d u l t Entry: W o r k - r e l a t e d Prob lems -1 .012 - 0 . 7 3 3 0.595 . 0. 000 S a t i s f a c t i o n 0.688 0.323 0.486 0. 000 S o c i a l M o b i l i t y 0.432 0.085 0.441 0. 000 Summary S t a t i s t i c s : C a n o n i c a l C o r r e l a t i o n : 0 .748 S i g n i f i c a n c e : p=0.000 ( X 2 2 4 . 7 9 6 , d . f .=3 C l a s s i f i c a t i o n : A c t u a l G r o u p : Number of Cases P r e d i c t e d G r o u p : No d e g r e e Degree No d e g r e e 12 83.3% (10) 16.7% (2) Degree 32 15.8% (5) 84.4% (27) A d u l t E n t r y c o r r e c t l y c l a s s i f i e d : 84.1% 177 TABLE 4 2 DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS USING WILKS METHOD: BACKGROUND AND PARTICIPATION VARIABLES AND DEGREE COMPLETION (RE-ENTRY) Independent V a r i a b l e D i s c r i m . C o r r e l a t i o n S i g n i - F u n c t i o n w i t h i n W i l k s ' f i c a n c e C o e f f i c i e n t F u n c t i o n lambda Grade P o i n t Average 0 .421 0 .478 0 .871 0 .017 S a t i s f a c t i o n 0 .760 0 .453 0 .759 0 .004 E a r l y - c a r e e r M o b i l i t y 0 .662 0 .419 0 .676 0 . 001 Time of D e c i s i o n -0 .452 -0 .311 0 .645 0 .002 Time s i n c e E n r o l l m e n t 0 .343 0 .323 0 .628 0 .003 Mother's E d u c a t i o n -0 .355 0 .210 0 .606 0 .004 Summary S t a t i s t i c s : C a n o n i c a l c o r r e l a t i o n S i g n i f i c a n c e 0.551 p=0.004 (X 2= 19.507, d.f. = 6) C l a s s i f i c a t i o n : A c t u a l Group: No degree Degree Number P r e d i c t e d Group: of Cases No degree Degree 26 76.9% (20) 23.1% (6) 27 22.2% (6) 77.8% (21) Re-Entry c o r r e c t l y c l a s s i f i e d ; 77.4% 178 added t o those r e v e a l e d as important by r e g r e s s i o n : time of d e c i s i o n , time s i n c e enrollment, and mother's e d u c a t i o n . L i k e Grade P o i n t Average, these l a s t t h r e e v a r i a b l e s are e d u c a t i o n - r e l a t e d r a t h e r than c a r e e r - or w o r k - r e l a t e d v a r i a b l e s . Mother's edu c a t i o n and time of d e c i s i o n are f r e q u e n t l y a s s o c i a t e d w i t h success i n u n i v e r s i t y i n r e s e a r c h w i t h t r a d i t i o n a l - a g e students but are at most t r i v i a l l y c o r r e l a t e d with degree-completion i n the o v e r a l l sample. (The c o r r e l a t i o n w i t h time s i n c e enrollment i s , however, s i g n i f i c a n t . See Table 34.) I t i s perhaps because the Re- e n t r y group i s somewhat more t r a d i t i o n a l , more l i k e students on whom pr e v i o u s r e s e a r c h has been r e p o r t e d , t h a t these v a r i a b l e s have some importance. Time s i n c e enrollment i s perhaps a somewhat obvious v a r i a b l e , g i v e n t h a t dropouts w i l l o f t e n have a s h o r t s t a y . The Re-entry group, i n g e n e r a l , seems t o be more a f f e c t e d by e d u c a t i o n a l v a r i a b l e s than i s the A d u l t E n t r y Group. The c l a s s i f i c a t i o n f o r Re-entry i s s l i g h t l y l e s s s u c c e s s f u l than with A d u l t E n t r y (Tables 41, 42). In g e n e r a l , the whole d i s c r i m i n a n t procedure works s l i g h t l y l e s s w e l l with Re-entry; i t seems simply more d i f f i c u l t t o d i s c r i m i n a t e the causes of degree-completion/non-completion w i t h the Re-entry group. More v a r i a b l e s are r e q u i r e d , and the amount of v a r i a n c e accounted f o r i s l e s s . But the d i f f e r e n c e seems t o be mainly t h a t t h e r e i s no one v a r i a b l e 179 as s i g n i f i c a n t for the Re-entry group as work-related problems i s with the Adult Entry group. Summary and Conclusion The regression and discriminant equations use the same variables for the f u l l mailed survey sample, except for time since enrollment which appears only i n the six - v a r i a b l e discriminant when entry i s included as a vari a b l e . The importance of each of the variables becomes cle a r when the subsample analyses (Adult Entry and Re-entry) are studied. Treating the groups or subsamples separately led to additional insight into • the e f f e c t s of some of the other varia b l e s . Within the separate groups, there was better prediction of degree completion than there was for the ov e r a l l sample, with some d i f f e r e n t and some s i m i l a r variables emphasized. S a t i s f a c t i o n , which i s the most important variable i n both f u l l sample equations, appears i n a l l the subsample analyses but not as the f i r s t v a riable. Level of as p i r a t i o n likewise appears i n both the regression and the discriminant analyses for the f u l l sample but only appears i n one sub- sample a n a l y s i s — t h e Adult Entry regression with a reduced c r i t e r i o n of variable entry. The importance of these two variables i s that they have some, f a i r l y consistent e f f e c t with both groups, i n the case of l e v e l of aspi r a t i o n so 180 moderate t h a t i t almost d i s a p p e a r s i n the subsample a n a l y s e s . One other v a r i a b l e which appears with both A d u l t E n t r y and Re-Entry equations i s e a r l y - c a r e e r m o b i l i t y , which d i d not appear i n the f u l l sample analyses because i t has o p p o s i t e e f f e c t s with the two groups. Upward m o b i l i t y i n e a r l y c a r e e r s c o r r e l a t e d with degree completion by Re-entry students; downward m o b i l i t y c o r r e l a t e d w i t h degree completion with A d u l t E n t r y Students. The major d i f f e r e n c e s between the sub-samples are i n the primary v a r i a b l e s f o r each group. Work-related problems i s the most important v a r i a b l e f o r A d u l t E n t r y , w h i l e Grade P o i n t Average i s the most h i g h l y a s s o c i a t e d v a r i a b l e w i t h Re-entry. The importance of these v a r i a b l e s w i t h the f u l l sample i s due t o the s t r e n g t h of t h e i r c o n t r i b u t i o n t o degree completion i n one subsample i n each case. The other v a r i a b l e s which c o n t r i b u t e o n l y t o the d i s c r i m i n a n t f o r R e - e n t r y — t i m e of d e c i s i o n , time s i n c e enrollment, and mother's e d u c a t i o n — a r e , l i k e G.P.A., e d u c a t i o n a l v a r i a b l e s . Re-entry students' p e r s i s t e n c e seems g e n e r a l l y t o be more a f f e c t e d by e d u c a t i o n a l background v a r i a b l e s , w h i l e A d u l t E n t r y s t u d e n t s ' p e r s i s t e n c e i s more a f f e c t e d by the i n t e r a c t i o n of t h e i r work and e d u c a t i o n a l environments (work-related problems, m o b i l i t y c o n s i d e r a t i o n s ) . In f a c t , the v a r i a b l e work- r e l a t e d problems had more e f f e c t w i t h A d u l t E n t r y than any 181 other single predictor with either group: presence of work- related problems was l i k e l y to lead to non-completion of degrees. Table 4 3 summarizes the findings i n t h i s chapter. The variables found s i g n i f i c a n t i n a l l the analyses are l i s t e d . None of the correlations i n Tables 3 3 and 34 was obviously meaningful. (With the t o t a l sample none was higher than 0.333). The multivariate analysis was more useful i n revealing the importance and e f f e c t s of the variables i n t h e i r r e l a t i o n s h i p with degree-completion. The use of both methods—regression and d i s c r i m i n a n t — r e i n f o r c e d conclusions about the variables and the i r e f f e c t s . The multiple regression analysis led to some understanding of the extent to which degree completion can be predicted using the variables under study. Discriminant analysis gave additional understanding of the r e l a t i v e contribution of d i f f e r e n t variables to degree - completion among the groups studied i n t h i s chapter. 182 TABLE 43: VARIABLES OF SIGNIFICANCE WITH THE FULL SAMPLE, AND ADULT ENTRY AND RE-ENTRY SUBSAMPLES FROM BOTH REGRESSION AND DISCRIMINANT ANALYSES. Sample R e g r e s s i o n (Stepwise) D i s c r i m i n a n t (Wilks Method) F u l l Sample A d u l t E n t r y Re-entry S a t i s f a c t i o n S a t i s f a c t i o n L e v e l of A s p i r a t i o n L e v e l of A s p i r a t i o n Grade P o i n t Average ( E n t r y ) 1 Work-related Problems ( E n t r y ) 1 Work-related Problems ( L e v e l of A s p i r a t i o n ) ( S a t i s f a c t i o n ; W o rk-related Problems Grade P o i n t Average (Time s i n c e E n r o l l m e n t J 1 Work-related Problems S a t i s f a c t i o n S o c i a l M o b i l i t y ( E a r l y - c a r e e r M o b i l i t y ) Grade P o i n t Average Grade P o i n t Average S a t i s f a c t i o n S a t i s f a c t i o n Time of D e c i s i o n E a r l y - c a r e e r M o b i l i t y Time s i n c e E n r o l l m e n t Mother's E d u c a t i o n ( V a r i a b l e s are l i s t e d i n order of contribution t o r e g r e s s i o n s e q u a t i o n or d i s c r i m i n a n t f u n c t i o n . ) 1. Only s i g n i f i c a n t when E n t r y i s i n c l u d e d as a v a r i a b l e . 183 CHAPTER 8 CONCLUSION: NEW AND RETURNING STUDENTS I n t r o d u c t i o n Two major bodies of r e s e a r c h were pursued i n t h i s study: the l i t e r a t u r e on a d u l t p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n e d u c a t i o n a l programs, mainly from the f i e l d of a d u l t e d u c a t i o n , and the l i t e r a t u r e on dropouts from c o l l e g e and u n i v e r s i t y , mainly from the f i e l d of hig h e r e d u c a t i o n . These r e s e a r c h areas had generated a number of models which do not, however, apply s p e c i f i c a l l y t o the problem s t u d i e d here. The l i t e r a t u r e from the two f i e l d s converges i n the treatment of a d u l t s i n post-secondary e d u c a t i o n . The emphasis i n t h i s study on long-term p e r s i s t e n c e t o degrees by a d u l t students i n u n i v e r s i t i e s r e q u i r e s a d i f f e r e n t focus from t h a t i n most a d u l t e d u c a t i o n p a r t i c i p a t i o n r e s e a r c h and high e r e d u c a t i o n a t t r i t i o n r e s e a r c h , mainly i n the use of a lon g e r time p e r i o d , although some dropout r e s e a r c h i n the 1960s used a ten-year time frame as d i d t h i s study ( f o r example, Eckland, 1964). Research on a d u l t s i n higher e d u c a t i o n , sometimes based on an i n t e r e s t i n a d u l t s as a market, has tended t o focus on 184 f i r s t - y e a r s t u d e n t s . I t has more o f t e n emphasized women than men. T h i s study was concerned w i t h a d u l t undergraduates a t a l l l e v e l s , l i m i t e d t o males aged 25 t o 34, f o r reasons e x p l a i n e d i n Chapter 4. D e a l i n g w i t h p a r t - time and f u l l - t i m e students a t a l l l e v e l s , w i t h long-term p e r s i s t e n c e t o degree completion as the dependent v a r i a b l e , r e p r e s e n t s a departure from p r e v i o u s r e s e a r c h . Most of the data f o r h y p o t h e s i s - t e s t i n g (Chapters 5 and 6) and m u l t i v a r i a t e a n a l y s i s (Chapter 7) were o b t a i n e d by a m a i l survey w i t h some supplementary i n f o r m a t i o n about the respondents being obtained from student r e c o r d s . The focus on a d i f f e r e n t p o p u l a t i o n from p r e v i o u s r e s e a r c h r e s u l t e d i n c o n f i r m i n g some f i n d i n g s and emphases and q u e s t i o n i n g o t h e r s . In t h i s chapter, the f i n d i n g s r e p o r t e d i n Chapters 5 t o 7 are compared t o the l i t e r a t u r e i n Chapters 2 and 3. F i r s t , the f i n d i n g s are compared t o those i n the l i t e r a t u r e on a d u l t p a r t i c i p a t i o n . Second, the dropout l i t e r a t u r e i s examined, n o t i n g i n p a r t i c u l a r the d i f f e r e n c e s which r e s u l t when a lon g e r time p e r i o d i s used. Then, the r e l a t i v e c o n t r i b u t i o n s of the Cross (from a d u l t education) and T i n t o (from h i g h e r education) models are d i s c u s s e d as t o the extent they c o n t r i b u t e t o understanding t h i s p o p u l a t i o n , f o l l o w e d by a d i s c u s s i o n of the long-range p e r s i s t e n c e model d e s c r i b e d i n Chapter 3. Next a m o d i f i c a t i o n of the Re-entry/Adult E n t r y c a t e g o r i z a t i o n i s suggested. With an emphasis on the 185 d i f f e r e n c e between new and experienced post-secondary students, some c o n c l u s i o n s are presented. R e l a t i o n s h i p s are suggested which may c o n t r i b u t e new and d i f f e r e n t hypotheses from those i n Chapter 3 and, p o s s i b l y , be h e l p f u l i n d e v e l o p i n g a model i n the f u t u r e . I m p l i c a t i o n s of these f i n d i n g s , p a r t i c u l a r l y f o r a d m i n i s t r a t o r s i n h i g h e r e d u c a t i o n , are c o n s i d e r e d i n the next s e c t i o n , f o l l o w e d by suggestions f o r f u t u r e r e s e a r c h . Then, a f t e r the s e c t i o n on l i m i t a t i o n s of the study, the c o n c l u s i o n s t r e s s e s what was l e a r n e d , i n p a r t i c u l a r about the respondents i n t h i s study. Summary of F i n d i n g s There are a number of f i n d i n g s from t h i s r e s e a r c h which c o u l d be u s e f u l to a d m i n i s t r a t o r s and t o f u t u r e r e s e a r c h e r s . These are grouped i n t h i s s e c t i o n a c c o r d i n g t o t h e i r a p p l i c a b i l i t y t o a d u l t p a r t i c i p a t i o n r e s e a r c h and r e s e a r c h on h i g h e r e d u c a t i o n dropouts ( o u t l i n e d i n Chapter 2), and t o r e s e a r c h based on the Cross and T i n t o models ( d e s c r i b e d i n Chapter 3). A d u l t P a r t i c i p a t i o n Less than h a l f of the students aged 25 and over a t Simon F r a s e r U n i v e r s i t y i n the f a l l of 1973 had completed degrees at t h a t u n i v e r s i t y w i t h i n the f o l l o w i n g t e n y e a r s . Those who r e g i s t e r e d f o r the f i r s t time i n the f a l l of 1973 186 were e s p e c i a l l y u n l i k e l y t o complete degrees i n ten years w i t h l e s s than 20% doing so. The l a r g e p r o p o r t i o n of the a d u l t students who were r e t u r n e e s , and the e s p e c i a l l y low r a t e of c o n t i n u a t i o n by those who were new t o h i g h e r e d u c a t i o n , g i v e support t o the d e c i s i o n t o go beyond the study of f i r s t - t i m e and f i r s t - y e a r students (such as, f o r example, Solmon and Gordon, 1981) i n s t u d y i n g p u r s u i t of degrees by t h i s group. D e g r e e - c r e d i t higher e d u c a t i o n i s an area of ambiguity i n the d e f i n i t i o n of a d u l t e d u c a t i o n (Darkenwald and Merriam, 1982). Nonetheless, the i n i t i a l h y p o t hesis of t h i s r e s e a r c h , t h a t those who had p r e v i o u s l y been students i n h i g h e r e d u c a t i o n would more o f t e n p e r s i s t t o degrees than those new t o postsecondary e d u c a t i o n , f o l l o w s what i s perhaps the most c o n s i s t e n t f i n d i n g i n a d u l t e d u c a t i o n p a r t i c i p a t i o n r e s e a r c h : g r e a t e r p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n a l l e d u c a t i o n a c t i v i t i e s by a d u l t s with more e d u c a t i o n . The hypothesis was supported by student r e c o r d s data. In a d d i t i o n , the n o n - c o n t i n u a t i o n r a t e of students who e n r o l l e d i n i t i a l l y i n the f a l l of 1973, probably c o m p a r a t i v e l y i n e x p e r i e n c e d i n e d u c a t i o n a l p u r s u i t s , suggests t h a t the e d u c a t i o n / p a r t i c i p a t i o n c o n n e c t i o n , at l e a s t t h a t a d u l t s w i t h l e s s e d u c a t i o n a l experience are l e s s l i k e l y t o p a r t i c i p a t e , holds f o r the p o p u l a t i o n s t u d i e d here as w e l l . The survey data c o n t r a d i c t the h y p o t h e s i s , p a r t l y because of the low response r a t e of new s t u d e n t s — t h o s e who 187 r e g i s t e r e d i n i t i a l l y i n the f a l l of 1973. The hypothesis i s r e s t a t e d i n a new c a t e g o r i z a t i o n presented i n a l a t e r s e c t i o n of t h i s c h a p t e r . Along with e d u c a t i o n , s o c i a l c l a s s and m o b i l i t y are key v a r i a b l e s i n much a d u l t e d u c a t i o n p a r t i c i p a t i o n r e s e a r c h . Most of the survey sample came from the middle c l a s s w i t h n e i t h e r the upper nor lower socioeconomic l e v e l s much re p r e s e n t e d i n the sample. As a r e s u l t , t h e r e was l i t t l e o p p o r t u n i t y f o r upward or downward m o b i l i t y , so t h a t the hypothesis (based on s o c i o l o g i c a l r e s e a r c h on p a r t i c i p a t i o n r e p o r t e d i n Chapter 2) t h a t downward m o b i l i t y would r e s u l t i n g r e a t e r p e r s i s t e n c e c o u l d not be r i g o r o u s l y t e s t e d . E a r l y - c a r e e r o c c u p a t i o n a l m o b i l i t y had o p p o s i t e e f f e c t s w i t h Re-entry and A d u l t E n t r y s t u d e n t s . Upward m o b i l i t y c o n t r i b u t e d t o p e r s i s t e n c e by Re-entry students; downward m o b i l i t y c o n t r i b u t e d t o p e r s i s t e n c e by A d u l t E n t r y s t u d e n t s . Upwardly mobile A d u l t E n t r y students may have had g r e a t e r work burdens and may have f e l t l e s s p r e s s u r e t o succeed e d u c a t i o n a l l y . Re-entry students may have been encouraged by some c a r e e r success; g e n e r a l l y they had had l e s s c a r e e r involvement than A d u l t E n t r y students, having spent some time i n high e r e d u c a t i o n i n the years b e f o r e they t u r n e d t w e n t y - f i v e . Other v a r i a b l e s sometimes used i n p a r t i c i p a t i o n r e s e a r c h ( f o r example, support) are c o n s i d e r e d i n the next s e c t i o n on dropout. 188 For the younger males on which t h i s study concentrated, the e f f e c t s of some variables used extensively i n p a r t i c i p a t i o n research are not straightforward. The e f f e c t of educational experience i s not l i n e a r , as w i l l be discussed i n the section on the modification of the Adult Entry/Re-entry categorization. The e f f e c t of s o c i a l mobility, another key variable i n some p a r t i c i p a t i o n research, could not be vigorously tested owing to sample l i m i t a t i o n s ; however, early-career mobility had opposite e f f e c t s for each of the Re-entry and Adult Entry categories, as stated above. Perhaps formal higher education, because i t requires an extensive commitment, over a considerable t i m e — a t least i f one intends to complete a degree—makes p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n t h i s a c t i v i t y q u a l i t a t i v e l y d i f f e r e n t from p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n other kinds of educational a c t i v i t i e s . The longer time- frame may be the key to i d e n t i f y i n g the variables which determine on-going as opposed to occasional p a r t i c i p a t i o n . Higher Education Dropout The hypotheses used i n t h i s research which were derived from higher education dropout research dealt with the e f f e c t s of a number of variables: educational—time of decision, degree aspiration, mother's education, and Grade Point Average; and s i t u a t i o n a l — s u p p o r t , problems, and s a t i s f a c t i o n . The educational variables, e s p e c i a l l y G.P.A., 189 a f f e c t e d the p e r s i s t e n c e of Re-entry students, but not A d u l t E n t r y students. G.P.A., i n f a c t , was the v a r i a b l e which c o n t r i b u t e d the g r e a t e s t amount of v a r i a n c e i n e x p l a i n i n g p e r s i s t e n c e by Re-entry s t u d e n t s . Some of the s i t u a t i o n a l v a r i a b l e s d i d not have much e f f e c t . The male students surveyed d i d not seem t o be p a r t i c u l a r l y a f f e c t e d by f a m i l y or f i n a n c i a l problems or support (presence or l a c k ) , c o n s i d e r a t i o n s emphasized i n other s t u d i e s (Lenning, B e a l , and Sauer, 1980; Cross, 1981), e s p e c i a l l y s t u d i e s which c o n c e n t r a t e on women (Lenz and S h a e v i t z , 1976; Rawlins, 1979). Support, e s p e c i a l l y , d i d not seem t o have any p a r t i c u l a r e f f e c t on degree-completion: perhaps support i s not a v a r i a b l e of importance i n long-term p e r s i s t e n c e . There may be a d i f f e r e n c e between males and females, w i t h males l e s s concerned about c o n s i d e r a t i o n s of support. Or i t may be t h a t those t r o u b l e d by problems of support j u s t do not become long-term p a r t i c i p a n t s . Students who had been p a r t - t i m e students i n O n t a r i o f o r a number of years (Levy-Coughlin, 1981) c o n s i d e r e d dropout a problem (whatever the cause) t h a t a p p l i e d t o f i r s t - c o u r s e or f i r s t - y ear students, but something they themselves had passed. Work-related problems, however, had a s i g n i f i c a n t e f f e c t on the p e r s i s t e n c e of A d u l t E n t r y s t u d e n t s , c o n t r i b u t i n g almost h a l f of the v a r i a n c e i n the r e g r e s s i o n equation f o r A d u l t E n t r y students. While t h i s e x p l a n a t i o n c o u l d be r a t i o n a l i z a t i o n on the p a r t of the non-completers, 190 t h i s was the only one of f i v e problem c a t e g o r i e s which made a d i f f e r e n c e i n degree completion f o r A d u l t E n t r y s t u d e n t s . G e n e r a l l y , v o c a t i o n a l ( c a r e e r - r e l a t e d ) as opposed t o e d u c a t i o n a l (or self-improvement) reasons f o r p a r t i c i p a t i n g were not a s s o c i a t e d w i t h p e r s i s t e n c e , s u g g e s t i n g t h a t a t l e a s t c a r e e r t r a n s i t i o n s ( A s l a n i a n and B r i c k e l l , 1980), w h i l e they may l e a d t o short-term p a r t i c i p a t i o n , do not l e a d t o long-term investment i n e d u c a t i o n . Other kinds of problems had l i t t l e e f f e c t on long-term p e r s i s t e n c e by the a d u l t males i n the survey. S a t i s f a c t i o n i s f r e q u e n t l y a s s o c i a t e d w i t h p e r s i s t e n c e (Lenning, B e a l , and Sauer, 1980), although not c o n s i s t e n t l y so. In e a r l i e r r e s e a r c h , I f f e r t (1958) found t h a t p e r s i s t e r s were more d i s s a t i s f i e d w i t h at l e a s t some asp e c t s of t h e i r c o l l e g e experience than dropouts. The f i n d i n g s here were t h a t degree-completers were more s a t i s f i e d than non-completers, and t h a t s a t i s f a c t i o n c o n t r i b u t e d t o the p e r s i s t e n c e of both Re-entry and A d u l t E n t r y students - i n the survey. Nonetheless, as i n d i c a t e d i n the q u e s t i o n on c o u n s e l l i n g , p e r s i s t e r s d i d sometimes express d i s s a t i s f a c t i o n . ( S a t i s f a c t i o n with i n s t r u c t o r c o n t a c t i s d i s c u s s e d i n the next s e c t i o n on the T i n t o model.) In t h i s study s a t i s f a c t i o n , along with problems and support, were p e r c e i v e d as mediating v a r i a b l e s . Because d i f f e r e n c e s between A d u l t E n t r y and Re-entry students i n s a t i s f a c t i o n were s l i g h t , the e f f e c t c o u l d not be c o n s i d e r e d 191 mediating, l e a v i n g open the q u e s t i o n whether s a t i s f a c t i o n i s an independent or dependent v a r i a b l e . However, the e f f e c t i s s i g n i f i c a n t and the v a r i a b l e makes a c o n s i s t e n t c o n t r i b u t i o n t o the v a r i a n c e , u s i n g d i f f e r e n t methods of a n a l y s i s . Recent r e s e a r c h suggests t h a t s a t i s f a c t i o n has a g r e a t e r e f f e c t on performance than v i c e v e r s a (Bean and B r a d l e y , 1986), so i t i s reasonable t o conclude t h a t s a t i s f a c t i o n i s a cause of p e r s i s t e n c e . I t may be c o n c e p t u a l i z e d as a mediating v a r i a b l e or i t may be an independent v a r i a b l e , depending on the model one uses. T h i s study p r e s e n t s some f u r t h e r j u s t i f i c a t i o n f o r the e x t e n s i o n of the time-frame f o r s t u d y i n g dropout t o t e n years or more (Eckland, 1964; P e r v i n , 1966; Jex and M e r r i l l , 1967). Some of the students i n t h i s study had r e g i s t e r e d i n i t i a l l y as e a r l y as 1965. In some r e s e a r c h , those who do not complete degrees i n f i v e years or l e s s are c o n s i d e r e d dropouts. However, the completion r a t e i n c r e a s e s c o n s i d e r a b l y i f one goes beyond f o u r or f i v e years (Eckland, 1964). G e n e r a l l y , the r e s e a r c h here supports the i d e a t h a t more than j u s t one or two v a r i a b l e s should be used i n dropout s t u d i e s (Pantages and Creedon, 1978). However, as seen i n Chapter 7, not many v a r i a b l e s are needed (between t h r e e and s i x ) t o account f o r the s i g n i f i c a n t v a r i a t i o n i n degree-completion. L i s t s of v a r i a b l e s ( f o r example, A s t i n , 1975; some of the examples i n Lenning, Beal and Sauer, 1980) 192 are not n e c e s s a r i l y u s e f u l . One of the u s e f u l f u n c t i o n s of models i s t h a t they are supposed t o reduce the numbers of v a r i a b l e s t h a t must be c o n s i d e r e d i n e x p l a i n i n g r e l a t i o n s h i p s . The Cross and T i n t o Models When the models from the l i t e r a t u r e which were d i s c u s s e d i n Chapter 3 are re-examined, Cross's model of a d u l t p a r t i c i p a t i o n and T i n t o ' s model of dropout, i t can be seen t h a t Cross's model i s more a p p l i c a b l e t o the s i t u a t i o n here. I t i s perhaps l o g i c a l t h a t a model concerned w i t h a d u l t students should f i t b e t t e r i n a study of a d u l t s t u d e n t s . There has been concern i n dropout r e s e a r c h about a p p l y i n g g e n e r a l models t o the v a r i e t y of types of i n s t i t u t i o n s and students i n higher e d u c a t i o n (Lenning, B e a l , and Sauer, 1980; Bean and Metzner, 1985). Some of the elements of the T i n t o model ( F i g u r e 2, p. 32), l i k e i n s t i t u t i o n a l commitment, do not apply v e r y w e l l w i t h t h i s p o p u l a t i o n . Many dropout models, l i k e the T i n t o model (1975) and i t s predecessor, the Spady model (1971), are based on person-environment f i t . Because of the kinds of i n s t i t u t i o n s and students they are concerned with, the models o f t e n d e a l w i t h t h i n g s l i k e r e s i d e n c e s and c o m p a r a b i l i t y of the community where the u n i v e r s i t y i s l o c a t e d with the home community of the student. Such v a r i a b l e s are a p p r o p r i a t e when d e a l i n g with f u l l - t i m e 193 traditional-age undergraduates for whom univers i t y may be the f i r s t move away from home (Lenning, Beal, and Sauer, 1980). Person-environment f i t may also be a v a l i d concern for adults, but the meaning of the environment for adult students i s d i f f e r e n t from the meaning for traditional-age uni v e r s i t y students. The unive r s i t y w i l l often be less important than the work setting, even for f u l l - t i m e students, many of whom may be taking a leave from established careers and may know f a i r l y c l e a r l y where they are going to be working a f t e r a period of study. With Adult Entry students, work-related problems was the most s i g n i f i c a n t variable a f f e c t i n g degree completion. Among the Adult Entry students i n the sample, having work-related problems was l i k e l y to r e s u l t i n non- completion of degrees. The e f f e c t of the external environment on persistence, p a r t i c u l a r l y with working students, i s emphasized i n other discussions of adults i n higher education (Bean and Metzner, 1985; Tinto, 1987). The type of work environment (Holland, 1973) might be useful i n developing a future model of adult dropout using person- environment considerations. In any case, the model would incorporate d i f f e r e n t environmental emphases from the Tinto and s i m i l a r models, p a r t i c u l a r l y i n the degree of emphasis on environment outside the university (for example, job si t u a t i o n ) . 194 Of the s e v e r a l measures of s a t i s f a c t i o n used i n t h i s r e s e a r c h , the g r e a t e s t d i f f e r e n c e between degree-completers and non-completers was i n s a t i s f a c t i o n w i t h i n s t r u c t o r c o n t a c t . The importance of i n s t r u c t o r c o n t a c t , as an aspect of academic i n t e g r a t i o n i n T i n t o ' s model, i s s t r e s s e d elsewhere (Munro, 1981; P a s c a r e l l a and T e r e n z i n i , 1980; T e r e n z i n i and P a s c a r e l l a , 1980). These r e s e a r c h e r s surveyed t h e i r respondents w h i l e they were s t i l l e n r o l l e d and found t h a t academic i n t e g r a t i o n was more important than s o c i a l i n t e g r a t i o n i n p r e d i c t i n g which students would r e - e n r o l l . The data here ( i n c l u d i n g s a t i s f a c t i o n w i t h s o c i a l l i f e ) i n d i c a t e t h a t both aspects c o n t r i b u t e t o p e r s i s t e n c e . C e r t a i n l y , the evidence i n d i c a t e s the p r a c t i c a l i t y of paying a t t e n t i o n t o o p p o r t u n i t i e s f o r i n s t r u c t o r c o n t a c t and i n t e r a c t i o n with other students i n p r e v e n t i n g dropout. The Cross model ( F i g u r e 1, p. 33) f i t s the data here f a i r l y w e l l : a t l e a s t t h e r e are no c o n t r a d i c t i o n s . Data were not c o l l e c t e d about l i f e t r a n s i t i o n s , i n f o r m a t i o n , and b a r r i e r s (elements D, E, and F i n the model), although the d i s c u s s i o n of problems and s a t i s f a c t i o n b r i n g s i n a l t e r n a t i v e and somewhat p a r a l l e l i n t e r v e n i n g v a r i a b l e s . Changes i n l i f e s i t u a t i o n s and problems w i t h support and/or f i n a n c e s might have l e s s importance when c o n s i d e r i n g l o n g - term p a r t i c i p a t i o n . Or, t r a n s i t i o n s and b a r r i e r s may have t o be o p e r a t i o n a l i z e d i n some way other than through a s k i n g 195 questions about problems, support and s a t i s f a c t i o n to be properly investigated. The data for t h i s study c l e a r l y support the propositions that differences i n attitudes to education and expectations about p a r t i c i p a t i o n (elements B and C i n the Cross model) contribute to persistence. In any case, most of the elements i n the Cross model are applicable. It i s impossible to conclude which elements are more or less important because the model was not tested d i r e c t l y . But the Cross model and the findings of t h i s d i s s e r t a t i o n are not inconsistent. The Cross model i s concerned with who does and who does not p a r t i c i p a t e , not who does and does not drop out. If more data had been c o l l e c t e d about the adult students whose p a r t i c i p a t i o n was very short—one term, e s p e c i a l l y — a s opposed to the Adult Entry students i n the sample who were a l l more or less veterans of higher education, i t may have been possible to specify the adaptations needed to make an adult dropout model. Perhaps t h i s would require more data about the work environment, as suggested i n the discussion of the shortcomings of the Tinto and other dropout models i n dealing with long-term persistence and adult students. 196 Model of Long-range P e r s i s t e n c e by Re-entry and A d u l t E n t r y A d u l t Students The model used i n the study ( F i g u r e 4 , p. 43) was s p e c i f i c a l l y designed t o d e a l with long-term p e r s i s t e n c e by a d u l t s t u d e n t s . I t has some correspondence t o the data, although not always as was hypothesized. The background c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s i n the model a f f e c t e d p e r s i s t e n c e t o degree completion and so d i d some p a r t i c i p a t i o n f a c t o r s : what i s l e s s c l e a r i s how the background c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s a f f e c t e d the p a r t i c i p a t i o n f a c t o r s . E n t r y s t a t u s was used i n the model as an i n t e r v e n i n g v a r i a b l e ; i t may be t h a t t h e r e should be separate models f o r the two c a t e g o r i e s . A d u l t E n t r y and Re-entry students were a f f e c t e d d i f f e r e n t l y by some of the v a r i a b l e s . Among the background c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s , the e d u c a t i o n a l v a r i a b l e s (such as time of d e c i s i o n ) a f f e c t e d the p e r s i s t e n c e of Re-entry students but not t h a t of A d u l t E n t r y s t u d e n t s . S i m i l a r l y , Grade P o i n t Average, which had the g r e a t e s t e f f e c t of any s i n g l e v a r i a b l e w i t h Re-entry students, c o u l d be c o n s i d e r e d a background v a r i a b l e w i t h t h i s group; o b v i o u s l y i t c o u l d not be a background v a r i a b l e w i t h A d u l t E n t r y s t u d e n t s . S o c i a l m o b i l i t y may have some e f f e c t on p e r s i s t e n c e (Chapter 7) and may have shown more i n f l u e n c e except f o r the r e s t r i c t e d range of the sample ( l a c k of students from u p p e r - c l a s s and l o w e r - c l a s s o r i g i n s ) . E a r l y - c a r e e r m o b i l i t y has a p p a r e n t l y o p p o s i t e e f f e c t s w i t h 197 the Re-entry and A d u l t E n t r y groups, w i t h upward m o b i l i t y c o n t r i b u t i n g t o p e r s i s t e n c e of Re-entry students and downward m o b i l i t y p o s i t i v e l y a f f e c t i n g degree completion by A d u l t E n t r y s t u d e n t s . G e n e r a l l y , i t seems d i f f e r e n t s e t s of v a r i a b l e s should be used as background c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s w i t h each group, perhaps i n separate models. Re-entry students and A d u l t E n t r y students had d i f f e r e n t p a s t s : the Re-entry students were more i n v o l v e d w i t h e d u c a t i o n ; the A d u l t E n t r y group were more i n v o l v e d w i t h work and c a r e e r . The d i f f e r e n c e s may be based on d i f f e r e n c e s i n background c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . Re-entry s t u d e n t s ' mothers had s i g n i f i c a n t l y more ed u c a t i o n than A d u l t E n t r y students' mothers, so t h e r e may be a d i f f e r e n c e i n f a m i l y o r i e n t a t i o n t o e d u c a t i o n which r e s u l t s i n proceeding d i r e c t l y t o post-secondary e d u c a t i o n or i n e n t e r i n g f u l l - t i m e employment f i r s t . Beyond t h i s , the v a r i a b l e s may not be r e l e v a n t t o degree completion. With the p a r t i c i p a t i o n f a c t o r s i n the model, s a t i s f a c t i o n and problems a f f e c t e d p e r s i s t e n c e , w h i l e support a p p a r e n t l y had no e f f e c t . The e f f e c t s of s a t i s f a c t i o n were s u f f i c i e n t l y important, and complex, as t o i n d i c a t e t h a t d i f f e r e n t aspects should perhaps be t r e a t e d as separate v a r i a b l e s . The e f f e c t of w o r k - r e l a t e d problems on the p e r s i s t e n c e of A d u l t E n t r y students may i n d i c a t e a need t o i n c l u d e environmental f a c t o r s l i k e job and c a r e e r s i t u a t i o n . The hypothesized d i f f e r e n c e s between A d u l t E n t r y 198 and Re-entry students with p a r t i c i p a t i o n f a c t o r s , mainly t h a t p e r s i s t e n c e of A d u l t E n t r y students would be more (and more a d v e r s e l y ) a f f e c t e d by s a t i s f a c t i o n and problems, were not found. One of the f u n c t i o n s of models i s t o s i m p l i f y . S i m p l i c i t y , g e n e r a l i t y , and accuracy may not be compatible. I t may be t h a t d i f f e r e n t p o p u l a t i o n s r e q u i r e d i f f e r e n t models, s e l e c t i n g d i f f e r e n t elements t o a t t a c h a t d i f f e r e n t p o i n t s . The d i f f e r e n c e s between A d u l t E n t r y students and Re-entry students i n d i c a t e t h a t even w i t h i n the c a t e g o r y of a d u l t u n i v e r s i t y students, p a r t i c u l a r i z e d models f o r separate p o p u l a t i o n s may be necessary t o adequately d e s c r i b e the behavior under study. Whether or not models are used, the r e s e a r c h f o r t h i s d i s s e r t a t i o n s t i l l a llows some p r e d i c t i o n s about which a d u l t students w i l l and w i l l not drop out. Q u a l i t y and Q u a n t i t y of E d u c a t i o n a l Experience T h i s study was based on a c a t e g o r i z a t i o n of a d u l t male students i n t o dichotomous g r o u p s — A d u l t E n t r y and R e - e n t r y — and the e x p e c t a t i o n t h a t Re-entry students would be more l i k e l y t o p e r s i s t t o degrees than A d u l t E n t r y . The r e s u l t s of the r e s e a r c h are ambiguous about t h i s e x p e c t a t i o n ; however, the data c o n f i r m the i d e a t h a t students who are completely new t o higher e d u c a t i o n are at high r i s k t o drop out. A d u l t E n t r y students, once they are experienced as 199 u n i v e r s i t y students, may be no more l i k e l y t o drop out than Re-entry (who are a l s o e x p e r i e n c e d ) . A new c a t e g o r i z a t i o n , i n order of l i k e l i h o o d t o complete degrees, might be: 1. A d u l t E n t r y (experienced students who have completed at l e a s t one term s u c c e s s f u l l y i n p o s t - secondary education) 2. Re-entry students ( s t a r t e d as t r a d i t i o n a l - a g e students) who had p o s i t i v e h i g h e r e d u c a t i o n experience, perhaps measured by G.P.A. 3. Re-entry students with n e g a t i v e p r e v i o u s h i g h e r e d u c a t i o n experience (low G.P.A.s). 4. New Students ( i n i t i a l term, never p r e v i o u s l y e n r o l l e d as post-secondary students) T h i s t y p o l o g y i s o b v i o u s l y not " c l e a n . " The c a t e g o r i e s are mutually e x c l u s i v e f o r o n l y one time; new students who c o n t i n u e more than a term become r e t u r n i n g s t u d e n t s . However, p r e d i c t i o n s can s t i l l be made. Some c o n c l u s i o n s and some hypotheses can be made u s i n g t h i s c a t e g o r i z a t i o n . U n f o r t u n a t e l y , too few new a d u l t students (as d e s c r i b e d here) responded t o the m a i l survey f o r any c o n c l u s i o n s t o be made about them. E x t r a p o l a t i n g from those t h i n g s which were r e l a t e d t o success or l a c k of i t f o r A d u l t E n t r y students, high p r o p o r t i o n s of i n d i v i d u a l s among the non-continuing new students might expect immediate pay o f f from t a k i n g c o u r s e s . Perhaps many of them would have a l r e a d y achieved some upward m o b i l i t y i n t h e i r c a r e e r s and 200 would c o n s i d e r t h e i r enrollment a t e n t a t i v e commitment, wit h no s e r i o u s i n t e n t i o n t o p e r s i s t i f i t got d i f f i c u l t . Much of what had been hypothesized about A d u l t E n t r y students i n g e n e r a l would apply t o t h i s group. Re-entry students c o u l d be s p l i t i n t o e i t h e r of two c a t e g o r i e s on the b a s i s of t h e i r Grade P o i n t Average. G.P.A. c o u l d be i n t e r p r e t e d as one measure of the p o s i t i v e or n e g a t i v e q u a l i t y of t h e i r e d u c a t i o n a l e x p e r i e n c e . (There might be o t h e r s , such as course f a i l u r e s or l e v e l of s a t i s f a c t i o n w i t h p r e v i o u s experience.) The hypotheses about the advantages of e d u c a t i o n a l experience ( l i m i t e d t o a dichotomous e i t h e r / o r c a t e g o r i z a t i o n i n t h i s r esearch) c o u l d then be q u a l i f i e d . Those wi t h low G.P.A.s from p r e v i o u s post-secondary e d u c a t i o n or a low s c a l e on some k i n d of experience index would be more l i k e l y t o drop out. Those wit h h i g h e r G.P.A.s or a h i g h s c a l e score would be a r e l a t i v e l y low r i s k group. There are other i n d i c a t i o n s t h a t Re-entry students are more a f f e c t e d by " t r a d i t i o n a l " v a r i a b l e s r e l a t e d t o p e r s i s t e n c e i n dropout r e s e a r c h (time of d e c i s i o n , mother's education) than other a d u l t s t u d e n t s . T h i s f i n d i n g , along with a sense of l a c k of involvement i n t h e i r c a r e e r s t o date might i n d i c a t e t h a t many of the Re- e n t r y students were, i n a r o l e sense, not r e a l l y a d u l t s . Experienced A d u l t E n t r y students, those who have s u r v i v e d t h e i r i n i t i a l e xperience, are the most s u c c e s s f u l i n completing degrees of the f o u r c a t e g o r i e s i n the proposed 201 t y p o l o g y . U n l i k e Re-entry students, they w i l l not have had the experience of dropping- or stopping-out; they have had few or no n e g a t i v e experiences from h i g h e r e d u c a t i o n . Only those who experienced c o n f l i c t between t h e i r work and student r o l e s were l i k e l y t o drop out. T h e i r motives f o r p a r t i c i p a t i o n are f r e q u e n t l y p u r s u i t of degrees f o r the sake of degrees, d e s i r e t o f u l f i l l a long time ambition, or d e s i r e f o r understanding of the world or themselves, r a t h e r than v o c a t i o n a l motives or e x p e c t a t i o n t h a t the e d u c a t i o n would pay o f f , e s p e c i a l l y i n the s h o r t term. The A d u l t E n t r y c a t e g o r i e s are not c l e a r l y d e l i n e a t e d . C o n t i n u i n g A d u l t E n t r y students (category 4) are i n a sense a sub-category of New students (category 1). Any d i f f e r e n c e s found between the c a t e g o r i e s would i n d i c a t e p o s s i b l y g r e a t e r r e a l d i f f e r e n c e s . Even d i v i s i o n of Re- e n t r y students i n t o groups with high and low G.P.A.s c o u l d be a r b i t r a r y — a l t h o u g h t h i s i s not necessary as G.P.A. i s an o r d i n a l v a r i a b l e , and c a t e g o r i e s 2 and 3 c o u l d be e s t a b l i s h e d e m p i r i c a l l y . However, the new t y p o l o g y c o u l d be i n c o r p o r a t e d i n t o a s e q u e n t i a l model, p o s s i b l y a person-environment model l i k e Spady's and T i n t o ' s . The d i f f e r e n c e between new students who are and those who are not l i k e l y t o c o n t i n u e may be due t o d i f f e r e n c e s i n the environments they come from as w e l l as t o d i f f e r e n c e s i n the ways they respond t o t h e i r h i g h e r e d u c a t i o n e x p e r i e n c e . 202 I m p l i c a t i o n s f o r P r a c t i t i o n e r s The i n t e r e s t of u n i v e r s i t i e s i n r e t e n t i o n has g e n e r a l l y focused on t r a d i t i o n a l - a g e students; t h e i r i n t e r e s t i n a d u l t students has g e n e r a l l y focused on a t t r a c t i n g them i n the f i r s t p l a c e . R e t e n t i o n of a d u l t students i s a l s o a u s e f u l g o a l f o r u n i v e r s i t i e s . The suggestions i n t h i s s e c t i o n should apply t o any u n i v e r s i t y i n t e r e s t e d i n long-term p e r s i s t e n c e of a d u l t students. The major f i n d i n g t h a t A d u l t E n t r y students, once they are no longer new t o high e r e d u c a t i o n (Category 1 i n the new t y p o l o g y ) , are very l i k e l y t o be p e r s i s t e n t , l e a d s t o one of the recommendations which c o u l d be suggested t o a d m i n i s t r a t o r s i n high e r e d u c a t i o n . Generally,, i t appears t h a t students who have p r e v i o u s l y attended, p r o v i d e d t h a t they do not have a low G.P.A., are much l e s s l i k e l y t o drop out than new stud e n t s . P o s s i b l y , i t i s not worthwhile t o expend e x t r a r e s o u r c e s on a d u l t students u n t i l they have made an e x t r a commitment t o t h e i r u n i v e r s i t y e d u c a t i o n ( t h a t i s , come back f o r more) or t h a t e x t r a e f f o r t should be made to get students back a t l e a s t once, t o get them t o make an e x t r a commitment by t a k i n g a d d i t i o n a l c o u r s e s . U s e f u l s t r a t e g i e s i n c l u d e g e t t i n g a d u l t s t o p r e - r e g i s t e r f o r t h e i r next course w h i l e they are s t i l l a t t e n d i n g t h e i r f i r s t and c o n t a c t i n g students by telephone the f i r s t semester a f t e r they cease attendance (Coyle, 203 Pennipede, and R e i l l y , 1984-85). In a d d i t i o n , e f f o r t s should be made t o make the f i r s t experience f o r new students as rewarding as p o s s i b l e by doing such t h i n g s as i n c r e a s i n g o p p o r t u n i t i e s f o r i n f o r m a l c o n t a c t with i n s t r u c t o r s o u t s i d e of c l a s s e s (as i n d i c a t e d i n r e s e a r c h on the T i n t o model as w e l l as h e r e ) . Some f u r t h e r comments can be made about marketing h i g h e r e d u c a t i o n t o a d u l t s . Any r e c r u i t i n g appeals based on c a r e e r advancement should be made wit h c a r e . E i t h e r the u n i v e r s i t i e s should be ready t o prove the co n n e c t i o n t o c a r e e r success, or they should be prepared t o p r o v i d e c o u n s e l l i n g so as t o make the c o n n e c t i o n b e t t e r understood by s t u d e n t s . V o c a t i o n a l motives f o r p a r t i c i p a t i o n were not found t o c o n t r i b u t e t o p e r s i s t e n c e . A p p a r e n t l y , promotion based on appeals t o c a r e e r motives may a t t r a c t a d u l t students but w i l l not keep them. The payo f f may be too d i s t a n t . Marketing techniques a p p l i e d without c o n s i d e r a b l e care may c r e a t e as many problems as they s o l v e ( K o t l e r , 1974; Loverock and R o t h s c h i l d , 1980). Some product improvements, e s p e c i a l l y those which would improve an a d u l t ' s i n i t i a l experience i n high e r e d u c a t i o n — i m p r o v e d c o u n s e l l i n g , or improvements t o s p e c i f i c c o u r s e s — m i g h t help get a d u l t s back f o r more. There i s probably l i t t l e , o ther than c o u n s e l l i n g , t h a t c o u l d be done t o help A d u l t E n t r y students cope wi t h the main problem they claimed was i n t e r f e r i n g with t h e i r 204 p e r s i s t e n c e , p r e s s u r e s from work, although p r o v i d i n g o p p o r t u n i t i e s f o r d i r e c t e d study might h e l p . In the case of employed students, i t might be h e l p f u l t o make sure employers are aware of t h e i r s t u dents' academic involvement. Employers c o u l d a s s i s t w i t h work s c h e d u l i n g or might simply l e n d moral support. H e l p i n g Re-entry students d e a l with t h e i r Grade P o i n t Average problem may be e a s i e r . The cumulative G.P.A. c o u l d be de-emphasized. I f , indeed, these i n d i v i d u a l s have matured d u r i n g t h e i r absence from h i g h e r e d u c a t i o n , t h e i r c a p a b i l i t i e s as students should be judged on the b a s i s of t h e i r work as mature st u d e n t s . High marks f o r one year or two years c o u l d be c o n s i d e r e d s u f f i c i e n t evidence f o r admission t o Honours or graduate programs, along w i t h a p t i t u d e or admission t e s t r e s u l t s . Being d i s c o u r a g e d about admission t o graduate or p r o f e s s i o n a l programs may have a f f e c t e d p e r s i s t e n c e i n some cases. Past r e c o r d s should not be a p e n a l t y . (Comments from some respondents suggested some b i t t e r n e s s about being p e n a l i z e d f o r t h e i r l a c k of achievement s e v e r a l years e a r l i e r . ) There was c o n s i d e r a b l e d i s s a t i s f a c t i o n w i t h c o u n s e l l o r s but i t i s not c l e a r what suggestions should be made because of t h i s . Respondents were asked o n l y whether they were s a t i s f i e d or d i s s a t i s f i e d with c o u n s e l l i n g (along w i t h o t h e r aspects of t h e i r u n i v e r s i t y e x p e r i e n c e ) , but some v o l u n t e e r e d suggestions f o r improvement. Most frequent 205 suggestions were l a i d - o n c o u n s e l l i n g a t the b e g i n n i n g of post-secondary p a r t i c i p a t i o n and/or having c o u n s e l l o r s a t t a c h e d t o departments. Improved c o u n s e l l i n g may h e l p w i t h other problems. C o u n s e l l o r s c o u l d a s s i s t a d u l t s i n making the c a r e e r - e d u c a t i o n c o n n e c t i o n , p e r c e i v i n g d i s t a n t p a y o f f s more c l e a r l y , and coping with c o n f l i c t s between t h e i r e d u c a t i o n and work or f a m i l y l i f e . Suggestions f o r F u r t h e r Research As s t a t e d b e f o r e , the e x i s t i n g models from a d u l t e d u c a t i o n p a r t i c i p a t i o n r e s e a r c h and h i g h e r e d u c a t i o n dropout r e s e a r c h do not apply completely. A d u l t e d u c a t i o n as a f i e l d of study has d i f f i c u l t y i n c o r p o r a t i n g c r e d i t h i g h e r e d u c a t i o n (Darkenwald and Merriam, 1982). Most dropout r e s e a r c h has been conducted u s i n g a s h o r t time f o c u s . Nonetheless, the models were u s e f u l i n h e l p i n g i d e n t i f y v a r i a b l e s i n t h i s r e s e a r c h . Proceeding from a model i s more p r o d u c t i v e than s p e c u l a t i o n or simply c o l l e c t i n g d e s c r i p t i v e data and making i n t e r p r e t a t i o n s from t h a t . F u r t h e r r e s e a r c h would r e q u i r e m o d i f i c a t i o n s t o dropout models t o d e a l with d i f f e r e n c e s between s h o r t and long time-frames, and m o d i f i c a t i o n s t o a d u l t p a r t i c i p a t i o n models t o d e a l w i t h d i f f e r e n c e s between c r e d i t and non- c r e d i t , and course and program p a r t i c i p a t i o n . A study based on the new, f o u r c a t e g o r y t y p o l o g y i d e n t i f y i n g these students a t the time of r e g i s t r a t i o n or 206 s h o r t l y a f t e r and f o l l o w i n g t h e i r performance f o r , say, two years would p r o v i d e some i n d i c a t i o n whether what was l e a r n e d here c o u l d be more wi d e l y a p p l i e d . I t would be u s e f u l t o t r y t h i s at two or more u n i v e r s i t i e s , or a t l e a s t one d i f f e r e n t from S.F.U. Use of m u l t i v a r i a t e techniques i s j u s t i f i e d , even when sample r e p r e s e n t a t i v e n e s s i s p r o b l e m a t i c . As was shown i n Chapters 5 and 6, u n i v a r i a t e and b i v a r i a t e a n a l y s i s o f t e n r e s u l t s i n the i d e n t i f i c a t i o n of a number of moderate r e l a t i o n s h i p s , none accounting f o r more than t e n percent of the v a r i a n c e . M u l t i v a r i a t e techniques such as m u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n and d i s c r i m i n a n t a n a l y s i s , i n a d d i t i o n t o acco u n t i n g f o r much more of the v a r i a n c e , help d e a l w i t h the problem of r e l a t i v e importance of v a r i a b l e s . In any case, the use of a v a r i e t y of techniques w i t h the same data i s a l o g i c a l procedure f o r examining r e l a t i o n s h i p s among v a r i a b l e s . There are some s p e c i f i c areas f o r f u r t h e r r e s e a r c h , i n d i c a t e d by f i n d i n g s of t h i s r e s e a r c h . Students who expected immediate p a y o f f s from t h e i r courses and who s t r e s s e d v o c a t i o n a l motives f o r pur s u i n g e d u c a t i o n were more l i k e l y t o drop out. T h i s f i n d i n g leads t o the q u e s t i o n s of the importance of p a y o f f , p e r c e p t i o n of b e n e f i t s , and the co n n e c t i o n between educ a t i o n and c a r e e r . The e d u c a t i o n - c a r e e r c o n n e c t i o n has been researched i n the s o c i a l m o b i l i t y 207 area, f o r example, but not much i s known about how these t h i n g s work with a d u l t students, except a n e c d o t a l l y . L i m i t a t i o n s of the Study Co n c l u s i o n s from t h i s r e s e a r c h must be t e n t a t i v e . As s t a t e d i n Chapter 4, the m a i l survey d i d not adequately r e p r e s e n t f i r s t - t i m e students (those who r e g i s t e r e d f o r the f i r s t time i n the f a l l of 1973), and had o n l y a s m a l l number of A d u l t E n t r y students who d i d not complete degrees (which category i n c l u d e d most of the f i r s t - t i m e s t u d e n t s ) . T h i s r e s e a r c h was c a r r i e d out with a sample from one u n i v e r s i t y . However, Simon F r a s e r U n i v e r s i t y was one t h a t , compared at l e a s t t o other B r i t i s h Columbia u n i v e r s i t i e s , has been concerned with and a t t r a c t i v e t o a d u l t students ( T a y l o r and Weldon, 1982). The survey was conducted over t e n years a f t e r the p o p u l a t i o n had been a t S.F.U. f o r the term which was used t o i d e n t i f y them as the p o p u l a t i o n f o r study. In a d d i t i o n , the survey was focused on a d u l t male students younger than 35. While t h e i r experience may be s i m i l a r t o t h a t of a d u l t s a t other u n i v e r s i t i e s a t other times, the p o p u l a t i o n i s not n e c e s s a r i l y r e p r e s e n t a t i v e of a l l a d u l t s i n h i g h e r e d u c a t i o n . 208 C o n c l u s i o n : Experience and E x p e c t a t i o n s The f i n a l comments are about a d u l t s i n h i g h e r e d u c a t i o n , p a r t i c u l a r l y the respondents t o t h i s survey. I t was found t h a t some of the v a r i a b l e s f r e q u e n t l y used i n r e s e a r c h on d r o p o u t s — c a l l them t r a d i t i o n a l v a r i a b l e s — d i d not apply here, e s p e c i a l l y not t o A d u l t E n t r y s t u d e n t s . In a d d i t i o n , the s u c c e s s f u l A d u l t E n t r y students s a i d they were not t r o u b l e d by support or l a c k of support, or f i n a n c i a l problems; they were more l i k e l y motivated by e d u c a t i o n a l than v o c a t i o n a l o b j e c t i v e s ; they were concerned w i t h being good students, although having problems wi t h s t u d y i n g a f f e c t e d t h e i r p e r s i s t e n c e very l i t t l e . In s h o r t , they were a very independent group, and one gets the sense they would succeed somehow or other, p r o v i d e d the o b s t a c l e s they f a c e d were not enormous. When A d u l t E n t r y students were not p e r s i s t e r s they were l i k e l y t o be those who had e x p e c t a t i o n s of immediate p a y o f f or who had v o c a t i o n a l o b j e c t i v e s f o r t h e i r e d u c a t i o n a l e f f o r t s . Those who were most s u c c e s s f u l d i d not expect any immediate e x t r i n s i c rewards f o r t h e i r e f f o r t s ; they r e p o r t e d being a t t r a c t e d t o hig h e r e d u c a t i o n f o r i t s i n t r i n s i c v a l u e . The p e r s i s t e n c e of Re-entry students was s t r o n g l y a s s o c i a t e d with t h e i r p r e v i o u s e d u c a t i o n a l experience, f o r example t h e i r Grade P o i n t Average. S i m i l a r l y , the g e n e r a l l y l e s s s u c c e s s f u l Re-entry group seemed t o be more i n f l u e n c e d 209 by v o c a t i o n a l motives, l i k e the n o n - p e r s i s t i n g A d u l t E n t r y s t u d e n t s . These f i n d i n g s l e a d t o the c o n c l u s i o n t h a t l a c k of experience i n post-secondary e d u c a t i o n i s not n e c e s s a r i l y a problem, while u n s u c c e s s f u l p r e v i o u s experience i s a handicap. The i n f l u e n c e depends on the q u a l i t y of the exper i e n c e . Some a d u l t s may be merely t e s t i n g the waters; t h e r e maybe very l i t t l e commitment; they are not t h a t l i k e l y t o p e r s i s t ( l i k e the New Students i n the c a t e g o r i z a t i o n on p. 199). Some a d u l t s , however, are q u i t e committed t o t h e i r e d u c a t i o n ; t h e i r e d u c a t i o n i s o f t e n p e r c e i v e d as an end i n i t s e l f ; they are very l i k e l y t o p e r s i s t . Not t h a t many res o u r c e s need t o be expended t o a s s i s t them. 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Popper, K a r l , The L o g i c of S c i e n t i f i c D i s c o v e r y (London: Hutchinson, 1972). 217 Rawlins, Melanie, " L i f e Made E a s i e r f o r the O v e r - T h i r t y Undergrads," Personnel and Guidance J o u r n a l , October, 1979, pp. 139-143. Rogers, Brenda H., Kevin R. G i l l e l a n d , and George Dixon, " E d u c a t i o n a l M o t i v a t i o n s of Part-Time A d u l t s as R e l a t e d to Socio-Demographic V a r i a b l e s , " C o l l e g e and U n i v e r s i t y . 1988, pp. 198-209. Sc h l o s s b e r g , Nancy K., L i l l i a n T r o l l , and Zandy L i e b o w i t z , P e r s p e c t i v e s on C o u n s e l l i n g A d u l t s : Issues and S k i l l s (Monterey: Brooks/Cole, 1978). Sewall, Timothy J . and Margaret Kocurek, A d u l t Students and t h e i r Unemployed Cohorts and UW-Stevens P o i n t 1985, ERIC ED 257 969. Sewell, W i l l i a m H. and Robert M. Hauser, E d u c a t i o n . Occupation, and Earnings: Achievement i n the E a r l y Career. 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Zemsky, Robert, and Penny Oedel, The S t r u c t u r e of C o l l e g e Choice (New York: C o l l e g e Entrance Examination Board 1983 ) . 220 APPENDICES A. Student Records 221 B. Mail Survey 224 C. Telephone Survey 238 D. Correlation Matrices for Multivariate Analysis. 244 221 A. STUDENT RECORDS 1. File Description 222 2. Data Description 223 222 1. FILE DESCRIPTION F i e l d D e s c r i p t i o n S t a r t i n g Length Type P i c t u r e P o s i t i o n STUDENT SURNAME 1 20 CHAR A A STUDENT FIRST NAME & INITIAL 21 22 t t t t SEX 43 1 l i M/F BIRTHDATE 44 22 i t MMDDYY ADDRESS LINE 150 20 t t A A ADDRESS LINE 272 6 t l t t POSTAL CODE 92 3 )• A-A DEGREE AWARDED 98 3 II MMDDYY DATE DEGREE CONFERRED 98 6 t i YYS FIRST SEMESTER ATTENDED 107 3 l i XXX CUMULATIVE CREDIT HOURS PASSED 110 3 t t X.XX CUMULATIVE GRADE POINT AVERAGE 113 4 t l X.XX •REGISTRATION VECTOR 117 30 t i A A 146 •REGISTRATION VECTOR c o n s i s t s of 30 c h a r a c t e r p o s i t i o n s where each p o s i t i o n r e p r e s e n t s a semester. The f i r s t p o s i t i o n on the l e f t r e p r e s e n t s F a l l 1973 (73-3) and the l a s t p o s i t i o n on the r i g h t r e p r e s e n t s Summer 1983 (83-2). (83-2). I f the c h a r a c t e r i s an N the student was not r e g i s t e r e d i n t h a t semester. - I f the c h a r a c t e r i s an Y the student was r e g i s t e r e d i n t h a t semester. F i l e C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s Data Set Name: L a b e l : Tape D e n s i t y : RG.A6 4 0 3.JMCLAREN No L a b e l 6250 BPI 223 2. DATA DESCRIPTION T o t a l Number of Records 1561 Graduate Students i n F a l l , 197 3 61 No Records, poss ible Non-starts 6_5 Usable Records 1435 Cumulative G . P . A . based on Graduate Study a f ter 1973 155 Usable Grade Point Average and Cred i t Hours 1280 1. DEGREE (n-14 35) Simon Fraser Degree 648 No Simon Fraser Degree 787 2. SEX (n=1435) Male 891 Female 544 3. AGE (n=1435) Born p r i o r to 1939 240 Born between Jan. 1, 1939 and Dec. 1, 1948 1195 4. GRADE POINT AVERAGE (n=1280) 0 - 1.99 115 2 - 2.99 543 3.00 - 4.00 622 224 B. MAIL SURVEY 1. Cover letters - 225 2. Data Known About Sample from Student Records -. 228 3. Questionnaire with Frequencies 228 228 2. DATA KNOWN ABOUT SAMPLE FROM STUDENT R E C O R D S . 1. Degree Simon F r a s e r degree No degree (From survey) Degree obtained 61 45 elsewhere 4 2. Grade P o i n t Average (see Chapter 4, Table 1) 3. Time at Simon F r a s e r (see Chapter 4, Table 1) Sex and Age not r e l e v a n t because of sample r e s t r i c t i o n . 3. QUESTIONNAIRE WITH FREQUENCIES 1. When d i d you f i r s t decide t h a t you would be a student i n post-secondary education (take U n i v e r s i t y or C o l l e g e courses f o r c r e d i t ) ? .19(a) Before high school 4_4(b) During high s c h o o l 15(c) In the f i r s t 3 years a f t e r l e a v i n g s c h o o l 2.8(d) More than 3 years a f t e r l e a v i n g h i g h s c h o o l 2. How o l d were you when you f i r s t attended a u n i v e r s i t y or c o l l e g e course? 1 6 - 1 1 7 - 8 18 - 27 19 - 18 2 0 - 5 2 1 - 8 22 - 4 23 - 1 24 - 4 25 - 2 26 - 5 27 - 8 2 8 - 6 2 9 - 3 3 0 - 3 3 1 - 2 3 2 - 0 33 - 1 3. (a) Did you i n t e n d to pursue your e d u c a t i o n t o a degree or diploma at t h a t time? Yes 96 No 10 (b) I f yes, what was your e d u c a t i o n a l goal? 5_ complete c e r t i f i c a t e program. 4_ Complete diploma program. 77 Bachelor's degree. 5. Master's degree Q Doctorate, or p r o f e s s i o n a l q u a l i f i c a t i o n (c) What i s the hig h e s t e d u c a t i o n a l l e v e l you a s p i r e t o (most advanced degree)? 229 8̂  l e s s than Bachelor's degree 21 Bachelor's degree 46 Master's degree 17 Doctorate, or p r o f e s s i o n a l q u a l i f i c a t i o n 4. (Students who have not completed a degree.) I f you are pl a n n i n g t o complete your degree, when do you next p l a n to e n r o l l i n a course? 83 not a p p l i c a b l e 8. not p l a n n i n g t o e n r o l l again 4. e n r o l l e d at the present time 11 p l a n n i n g t o e n r o l l again How many semesters ( a f t e r t h i s one) do you expect t o take t o reach your present e d u c a t i o n a l goal? 76 not • 4 - 1 12 - 2 6 - 3 8 - 9 years years RE-ENTRY STUDENTS ( f i r s t e n r o l l e d i n post-secondary e d u c a t i o n before age 25) ONLY: 6. (a) Between the time you f i r s t s t a r t e d t a k i n g p o s t - secondary courses and the present, t h e r e has been at l e a s t one i n t e r r u p t i o n of t h r e e semesters or more when you d i d not take courses or "stopped out." When you decided to r e t u r n what was the reason? 21 (a) had always intended t o r e t u r n 16 (b) because of a change i n o c c u p a t i o n a l g o a l 2 (c) to s a t i s f y a requirement of your job 7 (d) to q u a l i f y f o r advancement 1 (e) to do something with time a v a i l a b l e ? 7 (f) o t h e r ? — p l e a s e s p e c i f y : (b) What were you doing at the time of t h i s d e c i s i o n (.that i s , were you unemployed, working as a housewife, or d i d you have some oth e r occupation?) Please s p e c i f y : (occupation) - see below ADULT ENTRY STUDENTS (25 or over years o l d when f i r s t e n r o l l e d i n post-secondary education) ONLY: 230 7. (a) When you f i r s t e n tered c o l l e g e or u n i v e r s i t y , what was the reason? 21 (a) t o o b t a i n a degree(s) 2 (b) t o o b t a i n p r e - p r o f e s s i o n a l q u a l i f i c a t i o n s 10 (c) t o f u l f i l l a long-time ambition 4 (d) because of a change i n o c c u p a t i o n a l g o a l 2 (e) t o s a t i s f y a requirement of your job 2 (f) t o q u a l i f y f o r advancement 0 (g) t o do something with time a v a i l a b l e 2 (h) o t h e r ? — p l e a s e s p e c i f y : (b) What are you doing at the time you d e c i d e d t o e n t e r c o l l e g e or u n i v e r s i t y ? Please s p e c i f y : (occupation) 6 (b), 7 (b) t o t a l s : - O c c u p a t i o n a l Category (Holland, 1973) R e a l i s t i c (R) 38 I n v e s t i g a t i v e (I) 6 A r t i s t i c (A) 2 S o c i a l (S) 14 E n t e r p r i s i n g (E) 15 C o n v e n t i o n a l (C) 15 - O c c u p a t i o n a l L e v e l (G.E.D., p a r a l l e l s S o c i a l C l a s s ) 1 0 2 10 3 23 4 36 5 21 6 0 8. Which of the f o l l o w i n g reasons would you c o n s i d e r as being very important to you i n d e c i d i n g to e n r o l l i n a p o s t - secondary program at the present time (Check any or a l l . ) - j = J o b - r e l a t e d reason; U = s e l f / u n d e r s t a n d i n g reason J To q u a l i f y f o r a job U For p e r s o n a l i n t e r e s t J To improve e x i s t i n g job s k i l l s J To decide on a c a r e e r J To study u n t i l a job becomes a v a i l a b l e J To complete t r a i n i n g r e q u i r e d as a c o n d i t i o n of my employment 6_ To meet people (6 = number checking item) 231 U To learn for self-understanding U To learn i n order to better understand the world J To learn something for a s p e c i f i c purpose (immediate application) 39 To complete a degree (39 = number checking item) J - Job-related reasons: (number of items checked by i n d i v i d u a l respondents): 0 26 1 27 2 25 3-6 22 U - Self/understanding reasons: (number of items checked by respondents): 0 34 1 39 2-3 27 9. What i s your present or most recent job or occupation? -Occupational Category (Holland category; see p. 230): R 12 I 7 A 3 S 47 E 20 C 15 - Occupational Level (G.E.D. l e v e l ; see p. 230): 1 0 2 0 3 3 4 12 5 79 6 2 10. (a) What occupation do you expect to follow i n the next two years? Same as 9. (check) Or: (14 changes) (Specify.) 232 - O c c u p a t i o n a l category (Holland category) R 9 I 6 A 4 S 46 E 18 C 15 - O c c u p a t i o n a l l e v e l (G.E.D. l e v e l ; see p. 230): 1 0 2 0 3 1 4 6 5 76 6 16 11. (a) What type of work would you l i k e t o be doing i n 10 y e a r s ' time, i f e v e r y t h i n g worked out? Same as 10. (check) Or: (42 changes) ( S p e c i f y ) - O c c u p a t i o n a l category (Holland c a t e g o r y ; see p. 233): R 8 I 5 A 5 S 39 E 28 C 10 - O c c u p a t i o n a l l e v e l (G.E.D. l e v e l ) : 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 5 5 65 6 25 - Change of oc c u p a t i o n (10,11) No changes 51 1 change 4 8 2 changes 4 233 12. What i s the primary source of money f o r your education? 92 Own employment 3 Spouse's employment 2 Parent's employment 1 Other r e l a t i v e s 0 S o c i a l A s s i s t a n c e 2 Government t r a i n i n g 3 Loan allowance 0 Other? (please s p e c i f y ) : 13. (a) (b) (c) (d) How s a t i s f i e d are you with the f o l l o w i n g aspects of your e d u c a t i o n a l experience? (Place mark i n a p p r o p r i a t e box.) q u a l i t y of c l a s s e s . . . . us e f u l n e s s of course content . , sc h e d u l i n g of c l a s s e s . . . amount of c o n t a c t with i n s t r u c t o r s . Very S a t i s f i e d 19 18 21 27 S a t i s f i e d 67 69 73 59 D i s - s a t i s f i e d 7 15 8 16 (g) (h) ( i ) s i z e of c l a s s e s . o p p o r t u n i t i e s t o mix w i t h other students . . . . a v a i l a b i l i t y of academic advi c e and c o u n s e l l i n g . 21 62 28 67 14 50 26 14. (a) Which, i f any, problems r e l a t e d t o be i n g a student have you encountered? (Check as many as apply.) (P = P e r s o n a l problem; J = J o b - r e l a t e d problem; F = f a m i l y problem; M = f i n a n c i a l problem; A = s t u d y - r e l a t e d problem) P l a c k of energy J c o n f l i c t with job r e s p o n s i b i l i t i e s F f a m i l y o b l i g a t i o n s F non-supportive f a m i l y a t t i t u d e s M t r a n s p o r t a t i o n problems F problems w i t h c h i l d c a r e M f i n a n c i a l problems P l a c k of s e l f - c o n f i d e n c e F g u i l t about n e g l e c t of f a m i l y J g u i l t about n e g l e c t of job A l a c k of s p e c i f i c s k i l l s and a b i l i t i e s A r u s t y study s k i l l s A problems with classmates//other? (please s p e c i f y ) : - Number of items checked by respondents p = P e r s o n a l 0 1,2 53 47 J = J o b - r e l a t e d 0 1,2 59 41 F = Family 0 1-3 52 48 M = F i n a n c i a l 0 1,2 51 49 A = S t u d y - r e l a t e d 0 1-3 48 52 (b) Which of the above would you say has been your g r e a t e s t d i f f i c u l t y ? None or no problem 4 ( s p e c i f i c a l l y s t a ted) Personal (P) 22 J o b - r e l a t e d (J) 13 Family (F) 12 F i n a n c i a l (M) 19 S t u d y - r e l a t e d (A) 29 15. Who has most encouraged your e d u c a t i o n a l ambitions? (Check any or a l l . ) 27 No one 25 F r i e n d s F Spouse 10 Employer F C h i l d r e n S Teachers F Mother S Classmates F F ather S C o u n s e l o r s / A d v i s e r F S i s t e r s / b r o t h e r s F Other r e l a t i v e s 0 Other? (please s p e c i f y ) F = Family 50 S = School 14 F a m i l y / r e l a t i v e s - 3 5 checked 1 f a m i l y category; 15 checked 2 or more. 16. (a) Are t h e r e people who do not approve of your t a k i n g courses? 13 Yes 89 No (b) What i s t h e i r r e l a t i o n s h i p t o you? family-11; employers-2 ( r e l a t i o n s h i p ) 235 17. (a) Had any of your b r o t h e r s or s i s t e r s had some post-secondary e d u c a t i o n b e f o r e you did? 27 Yes 65 No 11 Not A p p l i c a b l e (b) Have any b r o t h e r s or s i s t e r s begun p o s t - secondary education s i n c e you have s t a r t e d ? 35 Yes 56 No 12 Not A p p l i c a b l e DEMOGRAPHIC DATA: 18. What i s your m a r i t a l s t a t u s ? 14 Never married 6 Separated 13 D i v o r c e d 0 Widowed 70 S t i l l married 19. (a) How many dependent c h i l d r e n do you have? 70 respondents had c h i l d r e n (number) Number of c h i l d r e n 0 33 1 17 2 36 3 or more 17 (b) What i s the age of the youngest dependent c h i l d ? mean 7.3 (age i n years) median 7 20. (a) What was your f a t h e r ' s occupation? (What job d i d he have f o r the l o n g e s t time w h i l e you were s t i l l l i v i n g with your f a m i l y ? ) H o l l a n d category: R e a l i s t i c 47 I n v e s t i g a t i v e 5 A r t i s t i c 1 S o c i a l 8 E n t e r p r i s i n g 26 C o n v e n t i o n a l 14 236 - O c c u p a t i o n a l l e v e l ( G . E . D . l e v e l ; see p . 230): 1 2 3 4 5 6 0 5 22 41 27 6 21. What was the h i g h e s t l e v e l of e d u c a t i o n comple ted by your mother? (Check one . ) 10 e l ementary s c h o o l , grade 8 o r l e s s 27 secondary s c h o o l , 1-2 y e a r s 39 secondary s c h o o l , 3-4 y e a r s 10 some p o s t - s e c o n d a r y ( t r a d e , v o c a t i o n a l , t e c h n i c a l , c o l l e g e or u n i v e r s i t y ) 10 completed B a c h e l o r ' s degree 3 some graduate s tudy 2 completed p o s t - g r a d u a t e degree 5 do not know 22. F i n a l Q u e s t i o n : What might you recommend to Simon F r a s e r t o h e l p i t a s s i s t s tudents l i k e you? No s u g g e s t i o n to make 66 (check) O r : 40 made comments 77 s u b j e c t s were commented on 237 Category: Number Complaints, s u g g e s t i o n s : Program — c h a n g e s (majors o f f e r e d , etc.) 11 —more correspondence courses 8 —more n i g h t c l a s s e s (or s p e c i f i c ones) 6 — c h a n g e s i n marking, assignments 3_ 28 Support s e r v i c e s : — c o u n s e l l i n g 9 — a d m i s s i o n s 4 — f i n a n c i a l a i d 6 — f a m i l y housing 2 —more s e r v i c e s ( parking, r e c r e a t i o n , e t c .) 4. 25 Environment: — " p r e j u d i c e " a g a i n s t mature or pa r t - t i m e students 4 M i s c e l l a n e o u s : 4 T o t a l complaints, s u g g e s t i o n s : 61 Compliments: — f o r mature student program 5 — g e n e r a l 11 T o t a l compliments: 16 T o t a l 77 238 C. TELEPHONE SURVEY 1. P r o t o c o l and Response r a t e 239 2. Q u e s t i o n n a i r e and F r e q u e n c i e s 239 239 1. P r o t o c o l and response r a t e . A l l numbers c a l l e d a t l e a s t t h r e e times (2 d i f f e r e n t evenings and 1 daytime c a l l - at l e a s t ) . Numbers c a l l e d f o r 24 i n t e r v i e w s 73 I n t r o d u c t i o n - i d e n t i f i e d r e s e a r c h e r , s t a t e d purpose of survey, why and how respondent s e l e c t e d . 1. Did you r e c e i v e 'the g u e s t i o n n a i r e ? Yes 17 No 7 ("Not sure" response recoded a f t e r probing.) 2. I f you d i d , why d i d n ' t you complete i t ? too busy 10 l o s t i t 4 d i d not want t o 3 3. Would you be w i l l i n g t o answer a few q u e s t i o n s a t t h i s time? Yes 24 Complete q u e s t i o n n a i r e 3 Reduced q u e s t i o n n a i r e 21 No 4 Reduced Q u e s t i o n a i r e 1. When d i d you f i r s t decide t h a t you would be a student i n post-secondary e d u c a t i o n (take U n i v e r s i t y or C o l l e g e courses f o r c r e d i t ) ? 2(a) Before high s c h o o l 8(b) During high s c h o o l 2(c) In the f i r s t 3 years a f t e r l e a v i n g s c h o o l 12(d) More than 3 years a f t e r l e a v i n g high s c h o o l 6. (a) Between the time you f i r s t s t a r t e d t a k i n g p o s t - secondary courses and the present, t h e r e has been a t l e a s t one i n t e r r u p t i o n of thr e e semesters or more when you d i d not take courses or "stopped out." When you de c i d e d t o r e t u r n what was the reason? 240 4 (a) had always intended t o r e t u r n 2 (b) because of a change i n o c c u p a t i o n a l g o a l 2 (c) t o s a t i s f y a requirement of your job 3 (d) t o q u a l i f y f o r advancement (e) t o do something w i t h time a v a i l a b l e ? (f) other? — p l e a s e s p e c i f y : (b) What were you doing at the time of t h i s d e c i s i o n ( t h a t i s , were you unemployed, working as a housewife, or d i d you have some other occupation?) Please s p e c i f y : ADULT ENTRY STUDENTS (over 21 years o l d when f i r s t e n r o l l e d i n post-secondary education) ONLY: 7. (a) When you f i r s t entered c o l l e g e or u n i v e r s i t y , what was the reason? 2 (a) to o b t a i n a degree(s) 2 (b) to o b t a i n p r e - p r o f e s s i o n a l q u a l i f i c a t i o n s (c) t o f u l f i l l a long-time ambition 5 (d) because of a change i n o c c u p a t i o n a l g o a l _2 (e) t o s a t i s f y a requirement of your job (f) t o q u a l i f y f o r advancement (g) t o do something w i t h time a v a i l a b l e (h) other? — p l e a s e s p e c i f y : (b) What were you doing at the time you deci d e d t o ent e r c o l l e g e or u n i v e r s i t y ? P l e a s e s p e c i f y : Summary of 6 (b), 7 ( b ) : Oc c u p a t i o n a l category (Holland c a t e g o r y ; see p. 2 30 R e a l i s t i c 11 I n v e s t i g a t i v e 4 E n t e r p r i s i n g 3 C o n v e n t i o n a l 4 O c c u p a t i o n a l L e v e l (G.E.D. l e v e l ; see p. 230): 1 2 3 4 5 6 0 2 7 9 4 0 241 9. What i s your present or most r e c e n t job or occupation? O c c u p a t i o n a l Category (Holland category; see p. 230): R I A S E C 1 2 3 1 12 5 Oc c u p a t i o n a l Category 1,3 4 5 6 (G.E.D. l e v e l ; see p. 230): 0 4 17 3 10. (a) What occu p a t i o n do you expect t o f o l l o w i n the next two years? Same as 9. .19. (check) Or: (5 changes) ( S p e c i f y . ) O c c u p a t i o n a l Category (Holland) R e a l i s t i c 2 A r t i s t i c 4 S o c i a l 1 E n t e r p r i s i n g 12 Conve n t i o n a l " 5 Oc c u p a t i o n a l L e v e l (G.E.D.) 4 5 6 0 1 17 6 11. (a) What type of work would you l i k e t o be doing i n 10 ye a r s ' time, i f e v e r y t h i n g worked out? Same as 10. 18 (check) Or: 6 changes) ( S p e c i f y . ) 242 O c c u p a t i o n a l Category (Holland) A r t i s t i c 4 S o c i a l 2 E n t e r p r i s i n g 11 Conventional 7 Occ u p a t i o n a l Category (G.E.D.): 1,4 0 5 15 6 9 Adapted 13. How s a t i s f i e d were you with your expe r i e n c e at Simon F r a s e r ? Adapted 14 some d i s s a t i s f a c t i o n expressed g e n e r a l l y s a t i s f i e d v ery s a t i s f i e d very s a t i s f i e d 8 8 8 Did you have any p a r t i c u l a r problems d u r i n g your time as a student which a f f e c t e d your work or s t u d i e s ? none some problems 11 13 Which of the above would" you say has been your g r e a t e s t d i f f i c u l t y ? p e r s o n a l 7 j o b - r e l a t e d 2 f a m i l y 2 f i n a n c i a l 2 s t u d y - r e l a t e d 0 243 20. (a) What was your f a t h e r ' s occupation? (What job d i d he have f o r the l o n g e s t time while you were s t i l l l i v i n g at home with your f a m i l y ? ) O c c u p a t i o n a l Category (Holland) R e a l i s t i c 13 I n v e s t i g a t i v e 3 C o n v e n t i o n a l 7 - O c c u p a t i o n a l L e v e l (G.E.D.): 1 2 3 4 5 6 0 1 6 12 2 2 244 D. CORRELATION MATRICES 1. F u l l M a i l Survey 245 2. M a i l Survey, A d u l t E n t r y 24 6 3. M a i l Survey, Re-entry 247 Mail Full Survey 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. B. 9. 10. 11. 12. 1. Degree 1.000 -.229* .075 • 145 -.240« -.325* -.186* -.333* -.225 -.161 -.078 .196* 2. Entry 1.000 -.586* -.009 -.141 -.115 -.045 -.007 -.007 -.106. -.099 -.003 3. Time of Decision 1.000 -.091 -.030 -.142 -.190 -.077 -.070 -.094 -.154 -.012 4. Social Mobility 1.000 -.645* -.408* -.150 -.146 -.125 -.135 -.103 -.124 5. Early - career Mobility 1.000 -.644* -.093 -.123 -.170 -.041 -.026 -.199" 6. Level of Aspiration 1.000 -.312* -.026 -.062 -.038 -.077 -.017 7. Desire for Change 1.000 -.088 -.007 -.118 -.079 .163 8. Satisfaction 1.000 -.039 -.108 -.012 .023 9. Work-related Problems 1.000 -.015 -.011 .005 10. Mother's Education 1.000 -.050 - . 292* 11. Grade Point Average 1.000 •significant at 0.05 level Mail Survey, Adult Entry 1. Degree 1.000 .017 2. Time of Decision 1.000 3. Social Mobility 4. Early - career Mobility 5. Level of Aspiration 6. Desire for Change 7. Satisfaction 8. Work-related Problems 9. Time at University 10. Mother's Education 11. Grade Point Average t 3. 4. 5. -.096 -.092 -.306* -.249* -.270 -.299 1.000 -.677 -.438* 1.000 -.739* 1.000 6. -.183 -.207 -.022 -.128 -.356* 1.000 7. -.329* -.167 -.092 -.058 -.079 -.094 1.000 8. -.421* -.004 -.126 -.135 -.124 -.125 -.188 1.000 9. -.086 -.008 -.043 -.045 -.038 -.056 -.274 -.167 1.000 10. -.059 -.046 -.042 -.161 -.096 -.331* -.172 -.047 -.127 1.000 11. -.120 -.260 -.294* -.284* -.387* -.058 -.104 -.098 -.271 -.117 1.000 Mail Survey, Re-entry 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 1. Degree 1.000 .200 -.183 -.306* -.311 2. Time of Decision 1.000 -.013 -.004 -.220 3. Social Mobility 1.000 -.654 -.361* 4. Early - career Mability 1.000 -.557* 5. Level of Aspiration 1.000 6. Desire for Change 7. Satisfaction 8. Work-related Problems 9. Time at University 10. Mother's Education 11. Grade Point Average 's ignif icant at 0.05 level 6. -.187 -.350* -.262* -.054 -.270* 1.000 7. -.320 -.060 -.190 -.187 -.120 -.094 1.000 8. -.032 -.152 -.292* -.205 -.015 -.111 -.128 1.000 9. -.252* -.104 -.209 -.061 -.061 -.163 -.018 -.096 1.000 10. -.133 -.355 -.046 -.276* -.305 -.184 -.143 -.121 -.178 1.000 11. -.395* -.151 -.111 -.197* -.170 -.260* -.022 -.018 -.334 -.095 1.000

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