UBC Theses and Dissertations

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UBC Theses and Dissertations

Analysis for institutional decision : the problem of faculty rank distribution Greenhill, Craig James 1981

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c.)  A N A L Y S I S FOR I N S T I T U T I O N A L D E C I S I O N : THE PROBLEM OF FACULTY RANK D I S T R I B U T I O N by CRAIG JAMES  GREENHILL  B . S c . , T h e U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a , 1971 M.A., T h e U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a , 1 9 7 5 A T H E S I S SUBMITTED IN P A R T I A L F U L F I L L M E N T OF THE REQUIREMENTS  OF THE DEGREE OF  DOCTOR OF EDUCATION in THE FACULTY OF GRADUATE S T U D I E S Department o f A d m i n i s t r a t i v e , A d u l t and Higher We a c c e p t t h i s t h e s i s as c o n f o r m i n g to the required  standard  THE U N I V E R S I T Y OF B R I T I S H  (c)  COLUMBIA  C r a i g James G r e e n h i l l , 1981  Education  In  presenting  an  advanced  the  Library  I  further  for  degree shall  agree  scholarly  by  his  of  this  written  this  thesis  in  at  University  the  make  that  it  purposes  for  may  be  It  of  British  available for  by  the  understood  gain  for  extensive  granted  is  financial  fulfilment of  shall  reference  Head  be  requirements  Columbia,  copying  that  not  the  of  of my  of  A d m i n i s t r a t i v e , A d u l t and H i g h e r  The U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h V a n c o u v e r 8, C a n a d a  1981-04-21  Columbia  I  agree  and  that  thesis  Department  copying  or  allowed  without  Education  for  study.  this  permission.  Department  Date  freely  permission  representatives. thesis  partial  or  publication my  ABSTRACT The p u r p o s e o f t h e s t u d y was t o i d e n t i f y a n d a p p l y a t e c h n i q u e f o r examining a n a l y t i c a l models o f f a c u l t y flow i n u n i v e r s i t i e s and models o f d e c i s i o n making i n u n i v e r s i t i e s with t h e i n t e n t i o n o f i d e n t i f y i n g points o f conceptual general  s i m i l a r i t y a n d d i f f e r e n c e b e t w e e n them.  d e c i s i o n paradigm as t h e technique  The study used Weathersby's  t o e x a m i n e t h e two g r o u p s o f m o d e l s .  F a c u l t y flow models and u n i v e r s i t y d e c i s i o n models a r e used r e s p e c t i v e l y as e x a m p l e s , f i r s t , o f a n a l y t i c a l t o o l s i n t e n d e d second, o f research-based  t o inform d e c i s i o n ; and,  d e s c r i p t i o n s o f how d e c i s i o n s a r e made.  Those  models p e r t a i n t o t h e c u r r e n t problem o f t h e upward s h i f t i n t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f u n i v e r s i t y f a c u l t y members among t h e p r o f e s s o r i a l r a n k s .  The focus on t h e  models derives from f a i l u r e s o f a n a l y t i c a l s t u d i e s o f important  problems t o  i n f l u e n c e the s o l u t i o n o f those problems through o r g a n i z a t i o n a l  decision  making. The c o n c e p t u a l  framework f o r examining s i m i l a r i t i e s and d i f f e r e n c e s  between a n a l y t i c a l models and models o f d e c i s i o n making stems from a d i s t i n c t i o n between them which h i g h l i g h t s t h e i m p o r t a n c e o f messages.  In p a r t i c u l a r ,  t h e r o l e o f m e s s a g e s b e t w e e n a n a l y s t s who s t u d y p r o b l e m s a n d d e c i s i o n m a k e r s who may t r y t o a c t o n t h e m e n a b l e s and d e c i s i o n m a k e r s .  a f o c u s on c o m m u n i c a t i o n between a n a l y s t s  E x a m i n i n g t h e way m o d e l s s t r u c t u r e p e r c e p t i o n a n d  therefore, communication, leads t o the suggestion of t h e a n a l y s t and the conceptual  that the conceptual  base  base o f those making a d e c i s i o n about t h e  p r o b l e m s h o u l d be c o n g r u e n t i f t h e a n a l y s i s i s t o i n f l u e n c e t h e d e c i s i o n . The s t u d y u s e s W e a t h e r s b y ' s g e n e r a l  d e c i s i o n paradigm to point out  common a n d d i s s i m i l a r a s p e c t s o f f a c u l t y f l o w m o d e l s a n d d e c i s i o n m a k i n g models i n an e x p l o r a t o r y step towards i n t e g r a t i n g t h e design o f a n a l y s i s  i ii and t h e p r o c e s s o f d e c i d i n g so t h a t f a i l u r e s o f m i s c o n n e c t i o n and s u p e r i o r s o l u t i o n s t o i m p o r t a n t  problems  may  be  avoided  obtained.  T h e s t u d y u s e s f a c u l t y f l o w m o d e l s a s an e x e m p l a r y g r o u p o f a n a l y t i c a l models.  In c o n t r a s t , two m o d e l s o f d e c i s i o n m a k i n g a b o u t f a c u l t y r a n k d i s t r i -  butions, termed o r g a n i z a t i o n a l process used in the study.  and c o a l i t i o n a l d e c i s i o n , w e r e b o t h  S u p p o r t f o r t h e l a t t e r two  and r e q u i r e m e n t s f o r due p r o c e s s  in resolving  i s found in budgeting disputes.  B a s e d on t h e g e n e r a l d e c i s i o n p a r a d i g m , e a c h m o d e l was into a p r o f i l e , demonstrating analysis.  summarized  the f e a s i b i l i t y o f the task o f secondary  The f a c u l t y f l o w p r o f i l e was  model p r o f i l e s . C o n s i d e r a b l e  studies  compared with each o f the  s i m i l a r i t y was  decision  found to e x i s t between f a c u l t y  f l o w m o d e l s and t h e o r g a n i z a t i o n a l p r o c e s s m o d e l o f d e c i s i o n , i n c l u d i n g b a s i c v a r i a b l e s , l i n k i n g s t r u c t u r e s and t r e a t m e n t  of uncertainty.  the  However,  f a c u l t y f l o w m o d e l s and t h e c o a l i t i o n a l m o d e l o f d e c i s i o n w e r e f o u n d t o be almost completely and a l t h o u g h different  d i s s i m i l a r , i n v o l v i n g d i f f e r e n t v a r i a b l e s and  both e x h i b i t short time horizons,  structures,  i t a p p e a r s t o be f o r  reasons.  D r a w i n g on t h e c o m p a r i s o n s b e t w e e n p r o f i l e s , and r e f l e c t i n g on use o f the general identified. general  the  d e c i s i o n paradigm, three groups of i m p l i c a t i o n s were  F i r s t , the need f o r f u r t h e r development o f t h e o r y from the  d e c i s i o n p a r a d i g m was  noted.  S e c o n d , t h e n e e d f o r new  kinds  of  f a c u l t y f l o w m o d e l s and f o r f u r t h e r s t u d y o f u n i v e r s i t y d e c i s i o n m a k i n g i s illustrated.  Finally, implications for,university administration  sought, sharpening  the need f o r continued  f o r d e c i s i o n s with actual d e c i s i o n making.  are  e f f o r t s to i n t e g r a t e a n a l y s i s  iv T A B L E OF  CONTENTS  L I S T OF T A B L E S . . . •  1.  2.  ix  L I S T OF FIGURES  x  NATURE OF THE STUDY  1  Organization o f the Study  2  S i g n i f i c a n c e o f the Study  5  INTEGRATING POLICY RESEARCH AND POLICY A N A L Y S I S Pol i c y . a n d D e c i s i o n  7  Analysis in A i d of Decision-Making  3.  7  9  T h e "Two W o r l d " C o n c e p t  11  Problems i n L i n k i n g A n a l y s i s t o D e c i s i o n  13  Normative Issues i n Linking Analysis to Decision  15  A Strategy f o r Integration  18  Policy Analysis in Universities  22  A U n i v e r s i t y Decision Problem  26  Summary  28  A GENERAL DECISION PARADIGM  30  Introduction . . . T h e P r o b l e m o f Model B i a s  30 .  Models o f O r g a n i z a t i o n a l D e c i s i o n Making  30 . 35  Bureaucracy  36  Collegium  36  P o l i t i c a l Incremental ism  37  Open System Approach  38  Compound S y s t e m  40  Organized Anarchy  41  Rational Analysis  42  V  T A B L E OF CONTENTS ( C o n t i n u e d )  3.  Cybernetics  42  A General Decision Paradigm Applying  the General Decision  Operational Control  44 Paradigm  51  Definitions  52  variables  52  State variables  53  Exogenous v a r i a b l e s  53  Observing systems  53  Value system.  53  Causal  53  relationships  Constraints  53  Time h o r i z o n  54  Uncertainty  structure  54  Other Considerations  54  Summary 4.  55  THE PROBLEM OF FACULTY RANK D I S T R I B U T I O N  57  The New " C r i s i s " o f C a n a d i a n U n i v e r s i t i e s  57  Faculty Appointments  58  F a c u l t y Rank D i s t r i b u t i o n  59  S i g n i f i c a n c e o f F a c u l t y Rank D i s t r i b u t i o n  62  R e l a t i n g A c a d e m i c Rank t o U n i v e r s i t y • and Inputs F a c u l t y Flow Models Percentage Point Increase  Outputs  63 67  Models  68  E q u i l i b r i u m Models  71  Markov C h a i n Models  78  vi  T A B L E OF CONTENTS 4.  (Continued)  Summary o f F a c u l t y F l o w M o d e l s  86  A n a l y s i s o f F a c u l t y Flow Models  87  Control Variables  88  State Variables  89  Exogenous V a r i a b l e s  89  Observing  89  Systems  Value System  90  Causal  91  Relationships  Constraints  91  Time Horizon  92  Uncertainty Structure  92  Summary o f A n a l y s i s  92  Summary 5.  94  FACULTY RANK D I S T R I B U T I O N D E C I S I O N S  96  Models o f Decision  96  D e s c r i p t i v e v s . Normative Theories  98  Normative Theory o f U n i v e r s i t y Decision:  Collegium.  Collegium as c l a s s i c a l r a t i o n a l i t y Bounded R a t i o n a l i t y : of Decision  Organizational  ...  99 102  Process  Model 104  Control variables  107  State variables  109  Exogenous v a r i a b l e s  109  Observing  110  system  Value system  . 110  Causal  Ill  relationships  vi i T A B L E OF CONTENTS ( C o n t i n u e d ) 5.  Constraints  Ill  Time h o r i z o n  Ill  Uncertainty structure Goal D i v e r s i t y :  112  C o a l i t i o n a l Model o f D e c i s i o n  112  C o n t r o l v a r i a b l e s ...  113  State variables  115  Exogenous v a r i a b l e s  116  Observing system  116  Value system  117  Causal r e l a t i o n s h i p s  117  Constraints  118  Time h o r i z o n  118  Uncertainty structure  118  F a c u l t y Rank D i s t r i b u t i o n D e c i s i o n s  119  C h a n g i n g t h e Frame o f R e f e r e n c e  119  Changing t h e S i z e and C o m p o s i t i o n o f F a c u l t y Rank D i s t r i b u t i o n s  121  H i r i n g and removal d e c i s i o n s  121  Promotion and t e n u r e d e c i s i o n s . .  125  Summary 6.  127  -ANALYSTS  1 2  C o m p a r i n g Model P r o f i l e s F a c u l t y F l o w M o d e l s Compared  129 to Organizational  Process Decision F a c u l t y F l o w M o d e l s Compared  9  130 t o C o a l i t i o n a l D e c i s i o n . . . . 135  R e l a t i n g F a c u l t y F l o w M o d e l s t o F a c u l t y Rank Distribution Decisions  138  vi i i T A B L E OF CONTENTS 6.  Reviewing the Conceptual The General  (continued)  Framework  141  Decision Paradigm  141  The "Two W o r l d " C o n c e p t  143  Summary 7.  144  SUMMARY, CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS  146  Summary o f t h e S t u d y  146  Purpose o f the Study  146  A Strategy f o r Integration  147  The G e n e r a l  150  Decision Paradigm  Summarizing P o l i c y A n a l y s i s and P o l i c y Research  .....  P o l i c y A n a l y s i s : F a c u l t y Flow P o l i c y Research:  152  F a c u l t y Rank D i s t r i b u t i o n D e c i s i o n s  Organizational Process Coalitional Decision  152  Decision .  ....  . 153 153 155  T e s t i n g f o r Congruence  157  Assessing the Test  159  Conclusions  160  Implications  161  T h e o r y - b u i l d i n g from the General  Decision Paradigm  . . . 161  Improvements i n F a c u l t y Flow M o d e l l i n g and R e l a t e d U n i v e r s i t y Research  162  University Administration  167  BIBLIOGRAPHY  170  ix L I S T OF TABLES TABLE I : TABLE I I :  Time Devoted t o Academic A c t i v i t i e s by Academic Rank  64  A c a d e m i c Rank D i s t r i b u t i o n o f F u l l - t i m e U n i v e r s i t y T e a c h e r s , S e l e c t e d Y e a r s , 1 9 6 7 - 6 8 t o 1977-78  69  TABLE I I I : A l t e r n a t i v e Rates o f Change i n P r o p o r t i o n o f P r o f e s s o r i a t e , P. TABLE IV: T A B L E V: TABLE V I :  TABLE V I I :  70  P r o j e c t e d Rank D i s t r i b u t i o n o f F u l l - t i m e U n i v e r s i t y T e a c h e r s , 1978-79 t o 1984-85  72  S t a t e D e f i n i t i o n s f o r t h e S t a n f o r d F a c u l t y Flow Model  83  S t a t e D e f i n i t i o n s f o r t h e Oregon S t a t e U n i v e r s i t y C o m p r e h e n s i v e F a c u l t y F l o w Model  84  A Summary o f F a c u l t y F l o w M o d e l s  87  T A B L E V I I I : Summary P r o f i l e o f F a c u l t y F l o w M o d e l s  . . /  Process Decision  93  TABLE I X :  Summary P r o f i l e o f O r g a n i z a t i o n a l  . . . 108  T A B L E X:  Summary P r o f i l e o f C o a l i t i o n a l D e c i s i o n s  114  TABLE X I :  Methods o f Reducing U n i v e r s i t y S t a f f  122  T A B L E X I I : aSummary n d D e s c rP ir po tf ii vlee sM oodfe lA sn a ol yft iU cn ai lv e Mr os di et ly s D oe cfi sF ia oc nu l tP yr o cFelsosw e s . 131  X  L I S T OF FIGURES FIGURE 1:  A Schema f o r P o l i c y R e s e a r c h a n d A n a l y s i s  23  FIGURE 2:  A Rational  43  FIGURE 3:  A Framework f o r C a t e g o r i z i n g Academic A p p o i n t m e n t s . ...  61  FIGURE 4:  A T w o - S t a g e E q u i l i b r i u m F l o w Model B a s e d on D u r a t i o n o f Appointment ( S p e c i f i e d v s . Unspecified)  73  A T h r e e - S t a g e E q u i l i b r i u m F l o w Model B a s e d o n A c a d e m i c Rank  74  A F o u r - S t a g e E q u i l i b r i u m F l o w Model B a s e d o n A c a d e m i c Rank  74  Rank D i s t r i b u t i o n f o r T e n u r e d a n d T e n u r e - T r a c k F a c u l t y , O r e g o n S t a t e U n i v e r s i t y 1975 t o 1995  85  FIGURE 5: FIGURE 6: FIGURE 7:  P o l i c y A n a l y s i s P a r a d i g m .'  xi ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The a u t h o r w i s h e s t o a c k n o w l e d g e contributed to the completion o f this  t h e a s s i s t a n c e o f t h o s e who dissertation.  S i n c e r e t h a n k s a"rs! e x t e n d e d t o D r . Brown f o r h i s c o n s t r u c t i v e comments a n d e n c o u r a g i n g s u p p o r t o f t h e r e s e a r c h . T h a n k s a r e a l s o . e x t e n d e d t o © r s . T e t l o w , Downey a n d K e l s e y f o r t h e i r u s e f u l a d v i c e . D o c t o r a l F e l l o w s h i p s f r o m . t h e C a n a d a C o u n c i l ( N o s . W75-3067 a n d W76-4062) p r o v i d e d f i n a n c i a l a s s i s t a n c e a n d a r e g r a t e f u l l y To M r s . M a r l e n e H a u g h t o n  acknowledged.  the w r i t e r wishes t o express h i s appre-  c i a t i o n f o r h e r c a r e f u l t y p i n g o f t h e f i n a l copy o f t h e t h e s i s . F i n a l l y , t o h i s w i f e , Lyn, a n d c h i l d r e n , S e a n a n d H e a t h e r , who shared i n the experience o f producing the study, the w r i t e r expresses s i n c e r e thanks and a p p r e c i a t i o n .  1 C h a p t e r One NATURE OF THE STUDY U n d e r s t a n d i n g human b e h a v i o u r i s a t b e s t a c o m p l e x e x e r c i s e . of the complexity  l i e s i n t h e conduct and development o f research  wide range o f d i s c i p l i n e s , research which provides own t e r m s b u t r e q u i r e s picture. standing  in a  enlightenment i n i t s  i n t e g r a t i o n w i t h o t h e r work t o r e v e a l a complete  Even as s c h o l a r s and o t h e r observers  attempt to achieve  and f i n d that p i c t u r e , a bounty o f ideas evolves,  about what peoples'  Part  roles i n organizations  r e s u l t s o f i n q u i r y and t h e proposal for integration o f research  should be.  under-  f o r example,  Together, the  o f v a r i o u s norms h e i g h t e n  t h e need  and theory.  T h i s s t u d y may be s e e n a s a n a t t e m p t t o i n t e g r a t e . i d e n t i f i e s two c l a s s e s o f i n q u i r y a n d t h e o r y c o n c e r n i n g  The study  d e c i s i o n making.  T h o s e two c l a s s e s d i f f e r i n t e r m s o f t h e i r t r e a t m e n t o f t h e phenomenon o f d e c i s i o n a s a k e y f e a t u r e o f human a c t i v i t y . One c l a s s o f i n q u i r y i s c a l l e d p o l i c y r e s e a r c h  and attempts t o  u n d e r s t a n d how a n d why d e c i s i o n s a r e made, p a r t i c u l a r l y d e c i s i o n s important and f a r reaching  issues.  involving  F o r e x a m p l e , "Why d i d t h e U n i t e d  a c t as i t d i d d u r i n g t h e Cuban c r i s i s o f 1962?" is c a l l e d p o l i c y a n a l y s i s and attempts to provide  States  The second c l a s s o f i n q u i r y understanding o f the  p a r t i c u l a r c h a r a c t e r o f a p r o b l e m , t h e s o l u t i o n o f w h i c h may b e a t t e m p t e d through decision.  An e x a m p l e o f t h i s s o r t i s t h e a s s e s s m e n t o f a l t e r n a -  t i v e methods f o r d i s t r i b u t i n g f o s s i l f u e l s .  A central tenet o f the study  is that c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f decision a r e i m p l i c i t i n the design o f analysis in a i d of decision. •  2 Recognizing  t h e many w a y s i n w h i c h d e c i s i o n s a n d d e c i s i o n m a k i n g  have been c o n c e p t u a l i z e d , "general  t h e study attempts t o use Weathersby's (1975)  d e c i s i o n paradigm" which i n c o r p o r a t e s o r subsumes t h a t range.  That over-arching  p a r a d i g m may p r o v i d e a f r a m e w o r k f o r a n i n t e g r a t i o n  o f many p r i o r s t u d i e s o f d e c i s i o n m a k i n g a n d s t u d i e s u n d e r t a k e n i n a i d o f making p a r t i c u l a r d e c i s i o n s .  To examine t h e p o s s i b i l i t y f o r d e v e l -  o p i n g an i n t e g r a t e d view, t h i s study u n d e r t o o k t o examine t h e a p p l i c a b i l i t y o f the general  d e c i s i o n p a r a d i g m a s a means f o r a n a l y z i n g a n d  c o m p a r i n g r e s u l t s o f i n q u i r y i n t h e two a r e a s i d e n t i f i e d . To s h a r p e n t h e e x e r c i s e , a c a s e p r o b l e m i s c h o s e n . provides  The case  a common f o c u s t o o r g a n i z e t h e r e s e a r c h a b o u t d e c i s i o n m a k i n g  in a p a r t i c u l a r context, and t h e a n a l y s i s concerning a problem associated with that context.  the substance o f  Important far-reaching  decisions  o f t e n a r e made i n t h e c o n t e x t o f a n o r g a n i z a t i o n o r c o l l e c t i v i t y . f o r e g o i n g examples were drawn from government and b u s i n e s s .  The  As a type  o f o r g a n i z a t i o n , u n i v e r s i t i e s o f f e r an e s p e c i a l l y i n t e r e s t i n g c o n t e x t f o r examining d e c i s i o n making.  F o r reasons d e v e l o p e d f u r t h e r i n t h e body  of t h i s study, the u n i v e r s i t y context and the p a r t i c u l a r problem o f s h i f t s in the d i s t r i b u t i o n o f u n i v e r s i t y f a c u l t y towards the upper ranks i s selected f o r case  treatment. ORGANIZATION OF THE STUDY  The s t u d y p r o c e e d s b y r e v i e w i n g d e c i s i o n , and a concept  t h e notion o f p o l i c y as a c l a s s o f  w h i c h makes a d i s t i n c t i o n b e t w e e n t h e c o n d u c t o f  p o l i c y making and t h e conduct o f research i n a i d o f p o l i c y making. example, t h e process o f making an important  For  s e l e c t i o n o r c h o i c e may be  3  seen as d i s t i n c t from d e t e r m i n i n g which p o s s i b l e c h o i c e s e x i s t .  That  review, along with a d i s c u s s i o n o f t h e case problem, i s presented i n C h a p t e r Two. The t h i r d c h a p t e r i d e n t i f i e s a w i d e range o f models o r c o n c e p t i o n s o f d e c i s i o n making a n d r e v i e w s them i n terms o f t h e g e n e r a l d e c i s i o n paradigm.  That general paradigm  i s p r o p o s e d a s a common s e t o f e l e m e n t s  w i t h w h i c h i t may b e p o s s i b l e t o e x a m i n e d i v e r s e b o d i e s o f r e s e a r c h a n d a n a l y s i s t o i d e n t i f y common e l e m e n t s a n d t h o s e i n t e r m s o f w h i c h are important d i f f e r e n c e s . The general d e c i s i o n paradigm  there  introduced i n  t h i s c h a p t e r forms t h e s k e l e t o n upon which t h e r e s t o f t h e s t u d y i s developed.  T h e p a r a d i g m may b e t h e b a s i s f o r t h e i n t e g r a t i o n d i s c u s s e d  in the opening s e c t i o n o f this chapter. Chapter Four d e s c r i b e s t h e case problem o f f a c u l t y rank d i s t r i b u t i o n i n terms o f i t s u n d e r l y i n g c o n c e p t s .  The use o f those c o n c e p t s i n  d e v e l o p i n g a f a m i l y o f a n a l y t i c a l models i s summarized i n a t h r e e - p a r t review o f t h e m o d e l l i n g l i t e r a t u r e which i d e n t i f i e s percentage i n c r e a s e , e q u i l i b r i u m and Markov c h a i n t e c h n i q u e s f o r p r o j e c t i n g f a c u l t y distribution.  rank  F i n a l l y , t h e body o f l i t e r a t u r e d e s c r i b i n g these a p p l i c a -  t i o n s o f f a c u l t y flow models t o inform u n i v e r s i t y personnel d e c i s i o n s i s examined  u s i n g t h e general d e c i s i o n paradigm t o produce t h e f i r s t  s e t o f summary p r o f i l e s .  T h a t p r o f i l e w i l l be t h e s u b j e c t o f f u r t h e r  scrutiny i n a l a t e r s e c t i o n (Chapter S i x ) . Chapter F i v e extends t h e case study by i d e n t i f y i n g t h e d e c i s i o n s w h i c h may b e s e e n t o a f f e c t t h e c a s e p r o b l e m , f a c u l t y r a n k d i s t r i b u t i o n . In p a r t i c u l a r , t h e d e c i s i o n s a r e e x a m i n e d t o d e t e r m i n e how t h e y a r e made.  from t h e p e r s p e c t i v e o f t r y i n g  F o r example, the d e c i s i o n t o i n c r e a s e o r  decrease t h e t o t a l s i z e o f a f a c u l t y rank d i s t r i b u t i o n i n v o l v e s t h e use  4  o f u n i v e r s i t y r e s o u r c e s , n o t a b l y money. d e c i s i o n paradigm  What e l e m e n t s  o f the general  a r e supported by r e s e a r c h d e a l i n g w i t h those d e c i s i o n s ?  The c h a p t e r i d e n t i f i e s t h e o r g a n i z a t i o n a l p r o c e s s a n d c o a l i t i o n a l m o d e l s o f d e c i s i o n making, and develops t h e second and t h i r d p r o f i l e s f o r the study.  Each emphasizes  paradigm,  d i f f e r e n t elements o f the general d e c i s i o n  and each i s r e p r e s e n t a t i v e o f a major l i n e i n e a r l i e r r e s e a r c h  with support i n the p a r t i c u l a r instance o f decisions a f f e c t i n g f a c u l t y rank  distribution. C h a p t e r S i x p u t s t h e t h r e e summary p r o f i l e s a l o n g s i d e e a c h  and t e s t s c o n s e c u t i v e l y f o r c o n g r u e n c e  other  between t h e p r o f i l e o f a n a l y t i c a l  " f a c u l t y flow" models and each o f t h e p r o f i l e s o f " o r g a n i z a t i o n a l proc e s s " o r " c o a l i t i o n a l " d e c i s i o n making as s u p p o r t e d by o t h e r r e s e a r c h . The c h a p t e r i d e n t i f i e s d i f f e r e n c e s a n d s i m i l a r i t i e s among t h e p r o f i l e s and demonstrates  that implicit conceptions o f decision are incorporated  into the design o f research i n a i d o f d e c i s i o n . The general d e c i s i o n paradigm  i s reviewed a s an a n a l y t i c a l c o n s t r u c t , a n d i t s p o s s i b l e r o l e  i n a more dynamic attempt a t i n t e g r a t i o n d i s c u s s e d . Chapter Seven summarizes t h e study and draws c o n c l u s i o n s a n d i m p l i c a t i o n s from i t . C o n c l u s i o n s concern t h e a p p l i c a b i l i t y o f t h e general d e c i s i o n paradigm, by e x a m i n i n g  the implicit conceptions o f decision discovered  a n a l y t i c a l models and t h e congruence  between a n a l y t i c a l  models and d e c i s i o n process models i n the matter o f f a c u l t y rank bution.  distri-  Implications concern the f u r t h e r development o f a n a l y t i c a l  models f o r treatment o f t h e case problem,  f u r t h e r development o f research  concerning u n i v e r s i t y d e c i s i o n making and the p o t e n t i a l o f the general d e c i s i o n paradigm  i n the development o f i n t e g r a t i n g theory concerning the  i n t e r f a c e o f a n a l y s i s and d e c i s i o n .  5 S I G N I F I C A N C E OF THE  STUDY  This study attempts to t e s t a conceptual  paradigm f o r i t s a b i l i t y  to provide useful s c r u t i n y o f d i v e r s e bodies o f previous i n d i c a t e d i r e c t i o n s f o r i n t e g r a t i o n i n the f u t u r e . a step i n the d i r e c t i o n o f enhancing understanding  work, a n d  to  T h a t e x e r c i s e makes o f human b e h a v i o u r  in  organizations. The p e r v a s i v e n e s s makes i t i m p o r t a n t standards.  o f complex o r g a n i z a t i o n s  in contemporary society  t h a t t h e i r d e c i s i o n s and p o l i c i e s m e e t  acceptable  I t w i l l be shown i n t h e b o d y o f t h e s t u d y t h a t f o r a n a l y s i s  to i n f l u e n c e d e c i s i o n , i t i s reasonable  to expect  ence between t h e i r conceptual  Therefore,  designs.  t h a t t h e r e be c o n g r u to the e x t e n t  a n a l y s i s c a n be made t o i m p r o v e d e c i s i o n s i n t e r m s o f s o c i e t y ' s  that standards,  t h i s study i s s i g n i f i c a n t i n t h a t i t examines a method f o r b r i n g i n g about, or at l e a s t t e s t i n g f o r , congruence.  By t e s t i n g f o r c o n g r u e n c e  t h e s t u d y a l s o makes a c o n t r i b u t i o n t o t h e l i t e r a t u r e i t s e l f by the general  d e c i s i o n p a r a d i g m ( W e a t h e r s b y , 1975)  in a novel  treatment.  to a body o f l i t e r a t u r e  The c a s e p r o b l e m o f f a c u l t y r a n k d i s t r i b u t i o n may b e t t e r on t h e b a s i s o f t h i s s u m m a r i z i n g s t u d y .  be u n d e r s t o o d  For example, there  not been a p r e v i o u s c o m p a r i s o n o f the e l e m e n t s o f m o d e l l i n g and a p p l i e d t o f a c u l t y f l o w i n t h e way  applying  developed  The c a s e  problem  has b e e n h i g h l i g h t e d by s e v e r a l r e c e n t p u b l i c a t i o n s ( e . g . S c i e n c e  Council  o f C a n a d a , 1979)  as an i m p o r t a n t  o f Canada's h i g h e r education increase understanding  i t i s done h e r e .  has  one i n t h e p r e s e n t and f u t u r e d e v e l o p m e n t  and r e s e a r c h c a p a b i l i t y .  may  o f the r e l a t i o n s h i p between u n i v e r s i t y d e c i s i o n  m a k i n g and i n s t i t u t i o n a l a n a l y s i s and t h e r e b y may that development.  This study  c o n t r i b u t e to enhancing  6 F i n a l l y , i t should  be n o t e d t h a t t h e r e s e a r c h  u s i n g e a r l i e r s t u d i e s as i t s s u b j e c t s  for study.  is  exploratory,  The f u l l  integration  towards which the study u l t i m a t e l y would l e a d i s not undertaken. e x p l o r a t i o n o f the c u r r e n t t o p i c i s a s t a t i c one,  that i s , the  The research  l a y s o u t t h e e l e m e n t s o f t h e i n t e g r a t i o n and t e s t s f o r a f o r m o f c o n gruence between p o l i c y r e s e a r c h  and p o l i c y a n a l y s i s i n u n i v e r s i t i e s ;  however, the f u l l statement o f causal i s not attempted.  The r e s e a r c h  r e l a t i o n s h i p s among t h e e l e m e n t s  design  i s unusual in that a case study  i s w a r r a n t e d b e c a u s e o f t h e e a r l y s t a g e i n t h e d e v e l o p m e n t o f an i n t e g r a t i n g theory; y e t , the l i n e s o f i n q u i r y which, themselves, are examined f o r i n t e g r a t i o n are h i g h l y developed. e x i s t s o p h i s t i c a t e d examples o f research  It i s because  being  there  and a n a l y s i s t h a t t h i s s t u d y i s  a b l e to p r o c e e d ; y e t , i t i s because t h o s e e a r l i e r l i n e s have not meshed as h o p e d t h a t t h e s t u d y i s r e q u i r e d a t a l l .  7 C h a p t e r Two INTEGRATING POLICY RESEARCH AND POLICY A N A L Y S I S This chapter  introduces  the concepts o f p o l i c y research  a n a l y s i s a s two t y p e s o f i n q u i r y i n n e e d o f i n t e g r a t i o n . to a focus on d e c i s i o n making i n organizations  and p o l i c y  They a r e r e l a t e d  which a r i s e s from a t r e a t -  ment o f t h e c o n c e p t o f p o l i c y a n d i t s c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s .  Using a methodo-  l o g i c a l d i s t i n c t i o n between p o l i c y research and p o l i c y a n a l y s i s , t h e "two-world" concept i s introduced of policy research determining  and examined.  A need f o r i n t e g r a t i o n  and p o l i c y a n a l y s i s i s reviewed and t h e problem o f  t h e proper r o l e f o r i n q u i r y i n deciding examined.  Difficul-  t i e s i n p r i o r e f f o r t s a t i n t e g r a t i o n a r e summarized, t h e s t r a t e g y o f examining t h e s t r u c t u r e o f d e c i s i o n and a n a l y s i s deduced, and the value o f an e x p l o r a t o r y  case study posited.  Finally, the applicability o f  the concepts o f p o l i c y research and p o l i c y a n a l y s i s t o u n i v e r s i t i e s i s demonstrated and a t o p i c f o r case a n a l y s i s i d e n t i f i e d i n the form o f a contemporary u n i v e r s i t y decision  problem.  POLICY AND DECISION Organizations, as h a v i n g  i n d i v i d u a l s a n d s o c i e t i e s commonly a r e c h a r a c t e r i z e d  g o a l s t h e y s e e k a n d p r o b l e m s t h a t g e t i n t h e way.  t i o n c a n be seen a s having  p o l i c i e s which recognize  provide d i r e c t i o n s f o r a c t i o n s (Dye, 1972). in a series o f organizational decision.  An  organiza-  goals and problems and  T h o s e p o l i c i e s may b e i m p l i c i t  d e c i s i o n s , o r may be s t a t e d e x p l i c i t l y i n a  How t h e y a r e made i s t h e s u b j e c t o f a v a s t l i t e r a t u r e .  That  l i t e r a t u r e v a r i o u s l y u s e s t h e t e r m s p o l i c y a n d d e c i s i o n s o t h a t no common usage obtains  (Landau, 1973).  To introduce  the area, i t i s necessary to  8 e s t a b l i s h useful d e f i n i t i o n s f o r the study. The t e r m " p o l i c y " h a s b e e n u s e d i n many s e t t i n g s t o c a p t u r e a s e n s e o f a c t i o n , importance and goal  direction:  "a b o d y o f p r i n c i p l e s t o g u i d e a c t i o n ( R o t h w e l l , "a c r i t i c a l d e c i s i o n  (Selznick,  "a p o l i t i c a l d e c i s i o n  (Easton,  1951)"  1957:21)" 1957)"  "a g u i d e t o d i s c r e t i o n a r y a c t i o n ( D a v i e s - B r i c k e l l , "the expression 1962)"  I960)"  o f broad goals o r purposes (Campbell e t a l . ,  "those generalizations about the organizational behavior that a f f e c t t h e s t r u c t u r e o f t h e o r g a n i z a t i o n (Katz and Kahn, 1966)" "a g e n e r a l  d i r e c t i v e (Dror,  1968:14)  "the outcome o f an i n t r i c a t e and complex process c a l l e d policymaking (Lindblom, 1968)" "those d e c i s i o n s and a c t i o n s which have t h e widest r a m i f i c a t i o n s and the longest time p e r s p e c t i v e r e q u i r i n g t h e most information and c o n t e m p l a t i o n (Bauer, 1971:2)" "the r e s u l t o f government d e c i s i o n making (Quade, 1975)" These d e f i n i t i o n s a r e often t a u t o l o g i c a l , e.g. p o l i c y i s t h e outcome o f p o l i c y m a k i n g , a n d c e r t a i n l y make no d i s t i n c t i o n b e t w e e n p o l i c y and d e c i s i o n .  There a r e elements o f importance and future reference and,  as Green (1975) n o t e s , one c o n c l u d e s t h a t a p o l i c y i s a r u l e o r g u i d e , presumably one that i s chosen o r s e l e c t e d , y e t every d e c i s i o n i s n o t a policy decision, nor i s every rule a policy. are c l e a r i n several o f the d e f i n i t i o n s The  conditions  These conditions  of policy  offered.  o f importance, future reference  and choice a r e  apparent i n one o r a n o t h e r c o m b i n a t i o n i n a l l d e f i n i t i o n s l i s t e d . are p a r t i c u l a r l y c l e a r i n those provided (1968).  They  b y B a u e r ( 1 9 7 1 ) a n d K a t z a n d Kahn  F o r example, Bauer (1971) h i g h l i g h t s t h e f a c t o r s o f l o n g e s t  perspective  and widest ramifications  as c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s .  Similarly,  time  9 K a t z and Kahn ( 1 9 6 6 ) I d e n t i f y t h e s t r u c t u r e o f t h e o r g a n i z a t i o n as principal referent of policy.  Taken together,  s t o n e f o r t h e s t u d y i n t h a t p o l i c y may  they provide a  t h e n be d e f i n e d as an  the  cornerexplicitly  o r i m p l i c i t l y s e l e c t e d g u i d e l i n e f o r f u t u r e a c t i o n which a f f e c t s the s t r u c t u r e o f t h e o r g a n i z a t i o n , r e q u i r e s a l o n g t i m e p e r s p e c t i v e and the widest r a m i f i c a t i o n s o f a l l g e n e r a l i z a t i o n s about the  has  organization.  As a v i r t u a l s y n o n y m f o r c h o i c e , d e c i s i o n has b e e n t r e a t e d a s a b u r e a u c r a t i c a c t i o n b a s e d on a u t h o r i t y ( e . g . Weber, 1 9 4 7 ) , a p r o d u c t dynamic consensus ( M i l l e t t , 1962), the r e s u l t a n t o f p o l i t i c a l (Lindblom, 1937).  a r g u m e n t s f o r t h e s e and o t h e r  t i o n s i n o r g a n i z a t i o n a l t h e o r y and i t has b e e n shown i m p o r t a n t adopting  forces  1 9 6 5 ) , o r t h e o u t c o m e o f r a t i o n a l a n a l y s i s ( G u l i c k and  There are underpinning  a s i n g l e v i e w ( A l l i s o n , 1971;  Peterson,  1976).  Urwick,  interpretato a v o i d  H e n c e no  one  d e f i n i t i o n of d e c i s i o n i s o f f e r e d , rather, a comprehensive treatment offered in Chapter Three.  From t h e r a n g e o f d e f i n i t i o n s and  of  is  treatment  o f t h e t e r m s p o l i c y and d e c i s i o n , i t i s a p p a r e n t t h a t t h e y h a v e a t t r a c t e d considerable  a t t e n t i o n s i n c e 1950.  Much o f t h e c o n c e p t u a l i z a t i o m  i n t h o s e e f f o r t s can be t r a c e d b a c k t o H a r o l d Analysis in Aid of  Lasswell.  Decision-Making  P o l i c y a n a l y s i s i s one o f t h e p o l i c y s c i e n c e s as c o n c e i v e d Lasswell  i n 1951.  Lasswell  the p o l i c y process and  by  u r g e d an i n t e g r a t i o n o f v a r i o u s d i s c i p l i n e s  i n t o a more s i n g u l a r t h r u s t to s o l v e the problems o f government. proposed that "...  used  He  t h e p o l i c y s c i e n c e s i n c l u d e (1) t h e m e t h o d s by w h i c h i s i n v e s t i g a t e d , (2) t h e r e s u l t s o f t h e s t u d y o f p o l i c y ,  (3) the f i n d i n g s o f the d i s c i p l i n e s m a k i n g t h e most i m p o r t a n t  b u t i o n s to the i n t e l l i g e n c e needs o f the t i m e ( 1970:3 ) . "  contri-  10 D r o r e x p a n d e d on L a s s w e l l ' s dimensions to p o l i c y 1. 2. 3. 4.  work and p r o p o s e d f o u r m a j o r  science:  Pol i c y a n a l y s i s . An a p p r o a c h a n d m e t h o d o l o g y f o r t h e d e s i g n and i d e n t i f i c a t i o n o f p r e f e r a b l e a l t e r n a t i v e s i n r e s p e c t O f complex p o l i c y i s s u e s . Mega p o l i c y . M a s t e r p o l i c y , a p o l i c y f o r p r o v i d i n g guides f o r a s e t o f discrete p o l i c i e s . M e t a p o l i c y . P o l i c y on p o l i c y m a k i n g , i . e . p o l i c y dealing with the c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f the policymaking system. Realization strategy. Means a n d ways t o i m p r o v e policymaking through the application o f p o l i c y s c i e n c e s and through the r e a l i z a t i o n o f p o l i c y sciences recommendations. (1971)  A c c o r d i n g t o D r o r , p o l i c y a n a l y s i s has t h e p u r p o s e o f p r o v i d i n g methods f o r i d e n t i f y i n g p o l i c y a l t e r n a t i v e s . the c r e a t i o n o f novel  a l t e r n a t i v e s and the s e l e c t i o n o f t h e best o f  available alternatives. underlying  values,  Policy analysis therefore  requires  attention to  u n d e r s t a n d i n g and p r e d i c t i n g the b e h a v i o r o f v a r i o u s  groups, and o r g a n i z a t i o n s their political  I t i s concerned w i t h both  and t h e a c c e p t a b i l i t y o f a l t e r n a t i v e s , i . e .  f e a s i b i l i t y (Dror, 1971).  In s h o r t , t h e o b j e c t o f p o l i c y  a n a l y s i s i s t o "maximize the a p p r o p r i a t e n e s s and e f f e c t i v e n e s s  o f the  p o l i c y " (Downey, 1 9 7 7 : 1 3 5 ) . A second aspect o f Lasswell's  conception o f the policy  was t h e s t u d y o f t h e d y n a m i c s o f m a k i n g p o l i c y . instance  i s to describe  w i l l be c a l l e d p o l i c y r e s e a r c h , a r e commonly a p p l i e d .  To a v o i d c o n f u s i o n ,  although various Policy research  such views o f t h e p r o c e s s as those p r o v i d e d and  The o b j e c t i n t h i s  and t o u n d e r s t a n d t h e b e h a v i o r o f t h o s e i n t h e  p o l i c y - m a k i n g p r o c e s s (Downey, 1 9 7 7 ) .  science  sciences  this aspect  labels, including  policy  i s d i s c i p l i n a r i a n , taking  by p o l i t i c a l  science,  economics  sociology. The  i n t e g r a t i o n p r o p o s e d by L a s s w e l l  i s s t i l l troublesome.  Research  n i n t o p o l i c y m a k i n g , and t h a t must i n c l u d e t h e making o f p o l i c y d e c i s i o n s , has been slow t o f i n d a p p l i c a t i o n t o t h e a n a l y s i s o f p a r t i c u l a r p o l i c y problems.  Indeed, L i n d b l o m and Cohen (1979) f a u l t a l l o f s o c i a l s c i e n c e  f o r f a i l i n g t o a f f e c t t h e d e c i s i o n s o f government  and p u b l i c a g e n c i e s .  Downey n o t e s t h a t " l i t t l e e f f o r t a p p e a r s t o h a v e b e e n made, p a r t i c u l a r l y i n e d u c a t i o n , t o combine t h e knowledge  generated [ i n policy research]  with the t e c h n o l o g i e s developed i n p o l i c y a n a l y s i s - f o r t h e purpose o f s t r e n g t h e n i n g t h e process (1977:136)."  We may s u m m a r i z e t h e n e e d f o r  such a c o m b i n a t i o n as a need t o examine t h e t e c h n o l o g i e s o f p o l i c y a n a l y s i s i n l i g h t o f known c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f p o l i c y m a k i n g t o i d e n t i f y  problems  and s u g g e s t s o l u t i o n s . The "Two-World"  Concept  I n t e g r a t i o n o f p o l i c y r e s e a r c h a n d p o l i c y a n a l y s i s may b e approached by b e i n g s e n s i t i v e t o t h e a n a l y t i c a l problem noted by Dror: the problem o f a s s e s s i n g u n d e r l y i n g v a l u e s and p r e f e r e n c e s o f those by whom t h e s e l e c t i o n o f a n a l t e r n a t i v e w i l l be made.  T h i s stems  from  t h e o r i e s o f d e c i s i o n making and sharpens a f o c u s on t h e l i n k a g e o f a n a l y s i s t o a c t i o n . Coleman has examined  t h a t l i n k a g e and o f f e r s a  d i s t i n c t i o n between t h e world o f a c t i o n and t h e world o f r e s e a r c h . Coleman proposes t h a t t h e d i s t i n c t i o n hinges on a m e t h o d o l o g i c a l d i s t i n c t i o n between " p o l i c y r e s e a r c h " which i s "designed as a guide t o s o c i a l a c t i o n " and " d i s c i p l i n e r e s e a r c h " which i s "designed t o advance knowledge  i n a s c i e n t i f i c d i s c i p l i n e " (1972:2).  Coleman uses t h e term  p o l i c y r e s e a r c h i n t h e s e n s e t h a t we h a v e d e f i n e d p o l i c y a n a l y s i s , a s is e v i d e n t from h i s d i s c u s s i o n o f i t s d e f i n i n g p r o p e r t i e s :  12 The r e s e a r c h p r o b l e m o r i g i n a t e s o u t s i d e t h e d i s c i p l i n e , i n t h e w o r l d o f a c t i o n ; and t h e r e s e a r c h r e s u l t s a r e d e s t i n e d f o r the w o r l d o f a c t i o n , o u t s i d e the d i s c i pline." (1972:3) Coleman then o b s e r v e s t h a t stemming from t h o s e p r o p e r t i e s , notions  o f a w o r l d o f a c t i o n and a d i s c i p l i n e d w o r l d o f r e s e a r c h  a t r a n s l a t i o n and a  the require  transmission:  For p o l i c y r e s e a r c h , the r e s e a r c h o u t s i d e an a c a d e m i c d i s c i p l i n e and t r a n s l a t e d from the r e a l world o f ceptual world of a c l i e n t without  problem enters from m u s t be c a r e f u l l y p o l i c y or the conl o s s o f meaning. (1972:7)  The c a n o n s o f s c i e n t i f i c m e t h o d and t h e v a l u e s i m p l i e d by t h e s e c a n o n s g o v e r n t h e e x e c u t i o n o f p o l i c y r e s e a r c h . Values from the world o f a c t i o n govern the f o r m u l a t i o n o f p o l i c y r e s e a r c h p r o b l e m s . The t r a n s m i s s i o n o f p o l i c y r e s e a r c h b a c k i n t o t h e w o r l d o f a c t i o n may be g o v e r n e d by e i t h e r s e t o f c o n d i t i o n s . (1 9 7 2 : 1 0 ) B a s e d on t h e d i s t i n c t i o n made by C o l e m a n , o u r a t t e n t i o n i s d i r e c t e d to the d e s i g n o f a n a l y s i s , i n c l u d i n g canons o f the s c i e n t i f i c method the t e c h n o l o g i e s  o f a n a l y s i s , and the c o n c e p t u a l  world o f the  i n c l u d i n g t h e v a r i a b l e s i n t e r m s o f w h i c h he p e r c e i v e s , s h i p s among t h e m i n w h i c h he b e l i e v e s . t o a c t i o n may  and  client,  and t h e r e l a t i o n -  The p r o b l e m o f l i n k i n g a n a l y s i s  t h e n be s t a t e d as t h e p r o b l e m o f l i n k i n g r e s e a r c h  in aid  o f d e c i s i o n to the making o f d e c i s i o n s , p a r t i c u l a r l y i m p o r t a n t , f a r reaching  decisions.  T h a t l i n k m u s t be i n t e r m s t h a t a r e o f i m p o r t a n c e  t o t h e d e c i s i o n - m a k e r , and use t e c h n i q u e s philosophies  of  science.  t h a t are c o n s i s t e n t  with  13 Problems i n L i n k i n g A n a l y s i s to D e c i s i o n L i n d b l o m a n d Cohen have r e c e n t l y e x a m i n e d t h e s u c c e s s o f e f f o r t s t o i m p r o v e p u b l i c p o l i c y m a k i n g w i t h s o c i a l r e s e a r c h a n d o b s e r v e "many s u p p l i e r s and users o f s o c i a l r e s e a r c h a r e d i s s a t i s f i e d , t h e former b e c a u s e t h e y a r e n o t l i s t e n e d t o , t h e l a t t e r b e c a u s e t h e y do n o t h e a r much t h e y w a n t t o l i s t e n t o . " ( 1 9 7 9 : 1 )  Furthermore, they review and  f i n d f a u l t w i t h a l a r g e l i t e r a t u r e which examines t h a t d i s s a t i s f a c t i o n . They i d e n t i f y f i v e themes i n t h e l i t e r a t u r e and argue t h a t e a c h p r o v i d e s an i n c o m p l e t e a s s e s s m e n t o f t h e p r o b l e m : (1)  Problem as t a r g e t .  Some s t u d i e s " t a k e n o t e o n l y o f r e s e a r c h  t h a t i s d i r e c t l y addressed t o a p o l i c y m a k e r s problem, as though 1  a s s u m i n g no o t h e r k i n d o f s o c i a l s c i e n c e o r s o c i a l r e s e a r c h enters into the problem s o l v i n g " (2)  Inadequate u t i l i z a t i o n .  (1979:2).  Some s t u d i e s " a s s u m e t h a t we  a l r e a d y possess s a t i s f a c t o r y knowledge  t h a t p o l i c y makers w i l l  not, f o r v a r i o u s p e r v e r s e reason, use" (1979:2). (3)  R e s e a r c h e r - C l i e n t Problems.  Some s t u d i e s " a s s e r t t h a t t h e  problem l i e s i n u n s a t i s f a c t o r y p e r s o n a l r e l a t i o n s between  social  r e s e a r c h e r s and c l i e n t , f o r g e t t i n g t h a t i n most cases o f s o c i a l r e s e a r c h no p e r s o n a l r e s e a r c h e r - c l i e n t r e l a t i o n s h i p e x i s t s a t a l l , t h e u s e r s i m p l y d r a w i n g on p u b l i s h e d work o f f a c e l e s s s o c i a l scientists" (4)  (1979:2).  Mismatched c o n t e m p o r a r i e s .  Some s t u d i e s a s s u m e t h a t " t h e  p r o b l e m i s o n e o f an i n a d e q u a t e r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n  contemporary  s o c i a l r e s e a r c h e r s and t h e i r c o u n t e r p a r t problem-solvers i n government,  without thought o f the p o s s i b i l i t y t h a t t h e most  f r u i t f u l c o l l a b o r a t i o n may be b e t w e e n t h e s o c i a l s c i e n t i s t s o f  14 an e a r l i e r g e n e r a t i o n (1979: 2 (5)  and p o l i c y m a k e r s o f a l a t e r  one"  )'.  Cosmetics.  cosmetically;  Some s t u d i e s " c o n c e i v e  o f the  problem  s o c i a l s c i e n t i s t s do n o t w r i t e a t t r a c t i v e l y "  (1979:2). In t h e i r b o o k , L i n d b l o m and list of difficulties.  Cohen e x t e n d t h e i r t h i n k i n g p a s t t h i s  They propose a three-part  change i n  to overcome the problems i n l i n k i n g a n a l y s i s to d e c i s i o n .  conceptions F i r s t , they  p r o p o s e t h a t an a d d i t i o n a l b r o a d c o n c e p t o f i n t e r a c t i v e p r o b l e m s o l v i n g i s r e q u i r e d t o make t r a c t a b l e and s e n s i b l e a g e n e r a l problem o f using knowledge.  treatment of  the  They d i s t i n g u i s h between a n a l y t i c a l problem  s o l v i n g , s e e n as an a t t e m p t t o s o l v e a p r o b l e m by " s o m e o n e ' s u n d e r s t a n d i n g t h e s i t u a t i o n and i t s p o s s i b l e r e m e d i e s so t h a t a s o l u t i o n p r e f e r r e d o u t c o m e can be d e c i d e d  u p o n " ( 1 9 7 9 : 2 0 ) , and  or  interactive  problem s o l v i n g in which a c t i o n ( u s u a l l y i n t e r a c t i v e ) i s undertaken t h a t t h e p r e f e r r e d o u t c o m e comes a b o u t w i t h o u t a n y o n e ' s h a v i n g the given problem o r having  achieved  an a n a l y z e d  (so  analyzed  s o l u t i o n to i t " (1979:20).  An e x a m p l e o f one o f t h e i r i n t e r a c t i v e s o l u t i o n s w o u l d be s e l e c t i n g a m o v i e by v o t i n g w h e r e t h e o n l y i n f o r m a t i o n l i s t of options  shared o r i d e n t i f i e d i s the  and m o v i e s ' c a s t ; s i m i l a r l y , an a n a l y t i c s o l u t i o n t o  same p r o b l e m c o u l d i n v o l v e t h e c a l c u l a t i o n o f a u t i l i t y v a l u e f o r  the  the  group f o r each movie. The  importance of admitting  i n t e r a c t i o n methods f o r s o l v i n g  p r o b l e m s i s s u p p o r t e d by L i n d b l o m and C o h e n ' s i l l u s t r a t i o n u s i n g  the  E d w a r d s and S h a r k a n s k y ( 1 9 7 8 ) s t u d y w h i c h a c k n o w l e d g e s t h e e m e r g e n c e o f an o u t c o m e f r o m an i n t e r a c t i o n among d e c i s i o n m a k e r s , " e a c h o f whom i s i n p u r s u i t o f s o l u t i o n s t o h i s own  problems r a t h e r than the  ostensible  problem."  Lindblom  a n d Cohen c o n t e n d  a c t i v e outcome i s evidence or group decision-maker  t h a t t h i s c i t a t i o n o f an i n t e r -  that the t y p i c a l presumption o f a unitary  which s e l e c t s an a l t e r n a t i v e i s m i s l e a d i n g and  oversimple. Lindblom  a n d C o h e n s u g g e s t t h a t when E d w a r d s a n d S h a r k a n s k y w r i t e  We e x a m i n e p o l i c y m a k i n g f r o m t h e p e r s p e c t i v e o f t h e d e c i s i o n makers, s c r u t i n i z i n g the i n t e l l e c t u a l tasks f a c i n g t h o s e who m u s t b o t h make p o l i c y d e c i s i o n s a n d s e e t h a t t h e y a r e i m p l e m e n t e d . On w h a t a r e t h e y t o b a s e t h e i r d e c i s i o n s ? What c r i t e r i a a r e t h e y t o u s e to choose between a l t e r n a t i v e s ? (1978:5) the questions they r a i s e a r e a p p r o p r i a t e only t o a view o f problem s o l v i n g t h a t i s a n a l y t i c and excludes  interaction. This proposition  w o u l d seem t o c l o s e o f f t h e p o l i c y s c i e n c e s f r o m a v i t a l l i n e o f research.  Indeed, Lindblom  and Cohen s p e c i f i c a l l y c r i t i c i z e t h e  "carelessness, professional bias o r audaciousness  (1979:37)" o f such  a u t h o r s a s H a r o l d L a s s w e l l when he w r i t e s " t h e p r i n c i p l e s t r a t e g y o f t h e p o l i c y s c i e n c e s c a n b e summed up a s g u i d i n g t h e f o c u s o f a t t e n t i o n o f a l l p a r t i c i p a n t s i n d e c i s i o n (1971:61)."  I t i s essential, therefore,  t h a t a c a r e f u l l y c o n s t r u c t e d c o n c e p t u a l i z a t i o n o f d e c i s i o n m a k i n g be used t o overcome t h e b i a s o r a u d a c i t y t h a t Lindblom The t a s k o f t h a t c o n s t r u c t i o n i s u n d e r t a k e n  and Cohen p o i n t o u t .  i n Chapter  3.  Normative Issues i n Linking Analysis to Decision Lindblom  and Cohen (1979) p o i n t t o problems i n a c t u a l l y i n f l u e n c -  ing decisions with the r e s u l t s o f a n a l y s i s .  A larger theoretical  question i s t h e appropriate r o l e f o r i n q u i r y i n p o l i c y making. T h i s has been t h e s u b j e c t o f c o n s i d e r a b l e debate i n t h e l i t e r a t u r e , and  16 has p o l a r i z e d a r o u n d two e x t r e m e p o s i t i o n s . One p o s i t i o n i s r e p r e s e n t e d by t h e " p u b l i c i n t e r e s t s c i e n t i s t s . " F o r e x a m p l e , P r i m a c k and von H i p p e l ( 1 9 7 5 ) c o n t e n d t h a t s c i e n t i s t s a r e o b l i g a t e d to c a r r y the r e s u l t s o f a n a l y s i s to the p u b l i c i n the p u b l i c i n t e r e s t and t o l e a d t h e a t t a c k on i r r e s p o n s i b l e b e h a v i o r on t h e p a r t o f government.  They contend t h a t the misuse o f a n a l y s i s i s almost  i n v a r i a b l y the r e s p o n s i b i l i t y o f n o n - s c i e n t i s t s . S c i e n t i s t s are c u l p a b l e o n l y t o the e x t e n t t h a t t h e y have p e r m i t t e d government and i n d u s t r i a l l e a d e r s t o m i s l e a d t h e p u b l i c and i g n o r e t h e b r o a d e r p u b l i c interest.  T h u s s c i e n t i s t s h a v e a r e s p o n s i b i l i t y b o t h t o be  unbiased  and p r e s e r v e t h e i n t e g r i t y o f t h e i r a n a - l y s i s i n t h e l a b and i n t h e p u b l i c r e c o r d , and to campaign a c t i v e l y a g a i n s t the s p e c i a l i n t e r e s t s who w o u l d d o m i n a t e t h e p o l i c y p r o c e s s . T h i s view i s tempered i n Boffey's o b s e r v a t i o n s t h a t : T h e r e a r e r e l a t i v e l y few p u b l i c p o l i c y q u e s t i o n s whose a n s w e r s a r e p u r e l y t e c h n i c a l . In a l m o s t a l l c a s e s , an element o f i n f o r m e d judgment i s r e q u i r e d , and what .comes o u t s t r u t t i n g as ' o b j e c t i v e ' w i s d o m i s a c t u a l l y t h e s u b j e c t i v e o p i n i o n o f t h o s e who p r e p a r e d t h e a d v i c e . U n f o r t u n a t e l y , t h o s e e x p e r t a d v i s e r s c a n be j u s t a s b i a s e d and p i g h e a d e d a s y o u and me, a n d t h e y can be j u s t as f o o l i s h l y w r o n g as we o f t e n a r e . (1 975: x i i ) The o p p o s i n g v i e w i s t h a t t h e p r o p e r r o l e o f t h e e x p e r t i s t o serve the p o l i c y maker.  S i n c e t h e a n a l y s t has no s p e c i a l e x p e r t i s e i n  t h e a r e a o f v a l u e s o r s o c i a l c h o i c e s , i t i s a r g u e d , he o u g h t n o t h i s own  p r e f e r e n c e s or biases i n t o the p o l i c y process (e.g.  M i c h a e l s and P r e s t o n , 1975). notes t h a t :  inject  Baker,  While not advocating the p o s i t i o n , Lerner  17 E x p e r t s o f t e n become p r e o c c u p i e d w i t h t h e t e c h n o l o g y o f t h e i r s u b j e c t m a t t e r and i n d i f f e r e n t - i n d e e d o b l i v i o u s - to the value o r i m p l i c a t i o n s o f l a r g e r p o l i t i c a l i s s u e s a s s o c i a t e d with t h e i r work. They are immersed i n the t e c h n o l o g i c a l a s p e c t s o f t h e i r w o r k and p e r c e i v e i t as an i n t e l l e c t u a l a b s t r a c t i o n - a c h e s s game s p o n s o r e d by g o v e r n m e n t o r c o r p o r a t i o n . The i n v o l v e m e n t i s c e r e b r a l i n t h e s e n s e t h a t t h e e x p e r t i s numb t o p o l i t i c a l p r o b l e m s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h the work o f h i s u n i t . (1976:179) Perhaps w h i m s i c a l l y ,  L e r n e r r e f e r s t o t h i s phenomenon as t h e  "expert.as  mechanic." (1976:179) Two  problems w i t h the misuse o f a n a l y s i s i n p o l i c y making emerge.  F i r s t i s the d i s t o r t i o n o r s u p p r e s s i o n  of analysis for political  to f u r t h e r the p o s i t i o n o f a p a r t i c u l a r i n t e r e s t group. f o c u s i n g a t t e n t i o n on t e c h n i c a l a s p e c t s o f d e c i s i o n s may  purposes  Secondly, shift  inappro-  p r i a t e l y t h e a t t e n t i o n o f p o l i c y m a k e r s away f r o m p o l i t i c a l a n d s o c i a l a s p e c t s o f the p o l i c y problems a t hand. P r o b l e m s o f t h e f i r s t t y p e may channels  o f i n f l u e n c e beyond those  i . e . by a d o p t i n g  be o v e r c o m e by t h e a n a l y s t s  based i n his p r o f e s s i o n a l  an i n d e p e n d e n t p u b l i c s t a n d on i s s u e s .  do t h i s s t e m s f r o m t h e s o c i a l p r e s t i g e w h i c h s t i l l  using  expertise;  The a b i l i t y t o  holds f o r science  the p u b l i c image o f the o b j e c t i v i t y o f the i n d e p e n d e n t a n a l y s t .  and  Over-  c o m i n g t h e s e c o n d t y p e o f p r o b l e m i s , i n some w a y s , t h e m o r e s i g n i f i c a n t c h a l l e n g e ; y e t a t t h e same t i m e i t i s t h e more d i f f i c u l t i n a s o c i a l o r organizational setting.  I t does, however, emphasize the importance o f  a c k n o w l e d g i n g v a l u e s and v a r i a b l e s i n t h e e n v i r o n m e n t when analysis o f a p o l i c y problem.  conducting  18 A STRATEGY FOR  INTEGRATION  I t has b e e n n o t e d t h a t t h e r e i s a n e e d t o e x a m i n e t h e  technologies  o f p o l i c y a n a l y s i s i n l i g h t o f known c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f p o l i c y m a k i n g . The i m p o r t a n c e o f c o n c e p t i o n s  of decision in attempting  t o a c t i o n has b e e n h i g h l i g h t e d .  T h a t l i n k i n g may  to l i n k a n a l y s i s  be a p p r o a c h e d by h y p o -  t h e s i z i n g t h a t a n a l y s i s c a n o n l y i n f l u e n c e d e c i s i o n when i t i s i n t e r m s that are o f importance to d e c i s i o n makers. I t has b e e n shown t h a t s c i e n t i f i c o r t e c h n i c a l i n f o r m a t i o n  in  p o l i c y m a k i n g "i;s o f t e n - p e r h a p s , p r i m a r i l y - u s e d t o l e g i t i m a t e d e c i sions reached  on o t h e r g r o u n d s , t h a t i s , p r i o r t o an a d e q u a t e a n a l y s i s o f  t h e m a g n i t u d e o f t h e p r o b l e m and t h e p r o b a b l e  consequences o f a l t e r n a t i v e  p o l i c i e s . . . r a t h e r than to i n f l u e n c e p o l i c y d e c i s i o n s " 1 978:396).  (Sabatier,  D r a w i n g on a r e v i e w o f t h e l i t e r a t u r e , S a b a t i e r  f i v e p r i n c i p a l v a r i a b l e s w h i c h h a v e been shown t o a f f e c t t h e  identifies influence  o f t e c h n i c a l i n f o r m a t i o n on p o l i c y d e c i s i o n s : (1) (2) (3) (4) (5)  the resources o f the i n f o r m a t i o n source; the c o n t e n t o f the message; the t i m e l i n e s s o f the message; t h e p o l i t i c a l and p o l i c y c o n t e x t ; a n d , t h e r e s o u r c e s and p e r s p e c t i v e s o f t h e p o l i c y maker. (1978:406)  W h i l e i t i s c l e a r t h a t a n a l y s i s may  s e r v e t o l e g i t i m a t e as w e l l  as t o i n f l u e n c e , t h e s e t o f v a r i a b l e s a f f e c t i n g i n f l u e n c e a s s i s t s i n i d e n t i f y i n g those aspects t h a t are important  to d e c i s i o n m a k e r s .  At  v e r y l e a s t , t h e e m p h a s i s on m e s s a g e s f o c u s e s on t h e o r i e s o f c o g n i t i v e dissonance  which i n d i c a t e that information  t h a t does not support  p r e d i s p o s i t i o n s o f a d e c i s i o n m a k e r w i l l be i g n o r e d o r d i s t o r t e d ( F e s t i n g e r , 1957;  Brown, 1 9 5 6 ) .  The S a b a t i e r ( 1 9 7 8 ) l i s t and  the  the  the  19 a p p l i c a b i l i t y of cognitive dissonance  h i g h l i g h t the r o l e o f communica-  t i o n b e t w e e n o r g a n i z a t i o n a l u n i t s , s u c h as a n a l y s t s and d e c i s i o n m a k e r s , may  be n o i s y o r r e p e l l e d i f m o d e r a t e o r s h a r p d i f f e r e n c e s i n c o g n i t i v e  s t y l e e x i s t between them. If dissonance analysis  o r i n c o n s i s t e n c y i s a f a c t o r i n h i b i t i n g t h e use  i n d e c i s i o n , t h e n i t may  reasonably  m e n t o f t h e r o l e o f a n a l y s i s i n d e c i s i o n may variables incorporated decision  of  be i n f e r r e d t h a t e n h a n c e require consistency  i n t o a n a l y s i s and v a r i a b l e s d e s c r i b i n g  between  the  process.  The r o l e o f c o g n i t i v e s t y l e has b e e n d e v e l o p e d i n t o a t y p o l o g y i n q u i r i n g systems (Churchman, 1971; s t r e s s e s that the psychological the p h i l o s o p h y  of evidence,  (Mason and M i t r o f f , 1 9 7 3 ) .  Mason and M i t r o f f , 1973)  which  t y p e o f t h e u s e r s h o u l d be c o n g r u e n t  with  i n q u i r y and k n o w l e d g e i n t h e i n q u i r i n g s y s t e m T h i s f o c u s e s a t t e n t i o n on t h e m a t t e r o f  an i n d i v i d u a l p e r c e i v e s t h e w o r l d , o r t h e v a r i a b l e s i n whose t e r m s processes  of  how those  occur.  On t h e b a s i s o f t h o s e o b s e r v a t i o n s ,  we may  h i g h l i g h t the  but perhaps not s u f f i c i e n t c o n d i t i o n o f c o n s i s t e n c y  necessary  between the systems  o f i n q u i r y on t h e p a r t o f t h e a n a l y s t a n d t h e d e c i s i o n m a k e r i n a t t e m p t ing to l i n k a n a l y s i s to a c t i o n . the t e c h n o l o g i e s  It is appropriate,  t h e r e f o r e , to t e s t  of p o l i c y analysis for t h e i r congruence with  characteris-  t i c s o f d e c i s i o n making. The n o t i o n o f c o n g r u e n c e commonly i s u s e d i n g e o m e t r y as a t e s t f o r e x a c t a g r e e m e n t i n s u p e r p o s i t i o n , e . g . two t r i a n g l e s w o u l d e x a c t l y i f t h e y h a v e two a d j a c e n t  s i d e s and one  A broader view of congruence i s provided  overlap  i n c l u d e d a n g l e i n common.  by t h e O x f o r d  d i c t i o n a r y which  d e f i n e s i t as " t h e f a c t o r c o n d i t i o n o f a c c o r d i n g o r a g r e e i n g ;  agreement  in character o r q u a l i t y . "  Therefore,  o n e may t e s t f o r c o n g r u e n c e  between a b s t r a c t ideas by i d e n t i f y i n g t h e i r r e s p e c t i v e c h a r a c t e r s and c o m p a r i n g them. In t h e p r e s e n t c a s e , t h e r e s p e c t i v e c h a r a c t e r s o f p o l i c y a n a l y s i s technologies  and d e c i s i o n making models a r e o f i n t e r e s t .  is necessary  t o i d e n t i f y the s t r u c t u r a l elements o f each that a r e i n  common.  Therefore, i t  A f u l l y a r t i c u l a t e d statement o f c a u s e and e f f e c t between de-  s i g n o f r e s e r a c h and t h e outcome o f d e c i s i o n making would p r o v i d e a theory f o r enhancing t h e i r i n t e r a c t i o n . scope o f t h i s study.  That i s a p r o j e c t beyond t h e  However, an e x p l o r a t o r y treatment  comparing the  elements o f a n a l y s i s and d e c i s i o n i n terms o f a comprehensive taxonomy or paradigm o f t h e elements o f d e c i s i o n making i s an e s s e n t i a l f i r s t s t e p t o w a r d s t h a t more c o m p l e t e i n t e g r a t i o n . c o n s i s t e n c y b e t w e e n t h e "two w o r l d s , " further integration i s possible.  Indeed, by t e s t i n g f o r  i t may b e d e t e r m i n e d w h e t h e r  I f the variables and structures o f  the world o f a n a l y s i s a r e n o t c o n s i s t e n t with those o f t h e world o f a c t i o n a n d d e c i s i o n , t h e n no f u r t h e r e f f o r t n e e d be d e v o t e d t o t r y i n g t o f o l l o w t h e c u r r e n t l i n e i n t e g r a t i n g them. permits  I t i s t h e study  which  " s t r o n g i n f e r e n c e " ( P i a t t , 1964) i n c l o s i n g o f f a f r u i t l e s s  l i n e o f i n q u i r y which enables  s c i e n c e t o move m o s t e f f i c i e n t l y t o w a r d s  the development o f theory. The p r o b l e m o f i n t e g r a t i n g a n a l y s i s o f p o l i c y p r o b l e m s w i t h research  i n t o the making o f p o l i c y d e c i s i o n s by comparing t h e s t r u c t u r a l  elements o f a n a l y s i s t e c h n o l o g i e s with models o f d e c i s i o n making is a novel  venture.  McGrath (1964) p o s i t s t h a t i n t h e e a r l y phases  o f theory development, one should concentrate  on e x p l o r a t o r y  f i e l d studies t o gather information about the subject o f i n t e r s t .  21 Given the novel c h a r a c t e r o f the p r e s e n t r e s e a r c h , i t i s a p p r o p r i a t e t h a t an e x p l o r a t o r y c a s e s t u d y be u n d e r t a k e n . unusual  The c a s e d e s i g n i s  i n t h a t w h i l e the i n t e g r a t i o n being examined i s n o v e l , the  two l i n e s o f r e s e a r c h t o be i n t e g r a t e d h a v e b e e n d e v e l o p e d e x t e n s i v e l y . A key f e a t u r e o f p o l i c y i s the r e s i d e n c e i n the world o f a c t i o n o f the problems  w i t h which p o l i c y makers and a n a l y s t s must d e a l .  The  c a s e w i l l , t h e r e f o r e , d r a w a p a r t i c u l a r p o l i c y p r o b l e m as i t s f o c u s , and i d e n t i f y o u t s t a n d i n g examples o f r e s e a r c h conducted  i n e a c h o f t h e modes  o f i n q u i r y r e l e v a n t to examination o f the substance o f t h a t W i t h two o r t h r e e e x e m p l a r s  o f e a c h mode r e p r e s e n t e d as a n a l y t i c a l  models, the case w i l l proceed to analyse each exemplar paradigm  problem.  through a general  o f d e c i s i o n s t r u c t u r e to i d e n t i f y the c h a r a c t e r o f those models. S i m i l a r l y , examples o f research concerning the making o f d e c i s i o n s  w i t h r e s p e c t t o t h e p o l i c y p r o b l e m w i l l be e x a m i n e d t h r o u g h t h e same general paradigm congruence  their character.  F i n a l l y , the t e s t f o r  w i l l compare the s e t s o f c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s f o r t h e i r agreement  or otherwise. paradigm,  to determine  N o t e t h a t by c a r e f u l l y d e v e l o p i n g t h e use o f a common  t h e t e s t may p r o c e e d as a c o m p a r i s o n  o f p r o f i l e s i n terms  of  a common s e t o f c r i t e r i a . A wide range o f o r g a n i z a t i o n a l t y p e s and s e t t i n g s from which a p o l i c y p r o b l e m may  be drawn e x i s t s . W h i l e much o f t h e l i t e r a t u r e on  p o l i c y has g o v e r n m e n t and p u b l i c b u r e a u c r a c i e s a s i t s f o c u s , c o m p l e x o r g a n i z a t i o n s s u c h as u n i v e r s i t i e s are a l s o o f i n t e r e s t . M o r e o v e r , u n i v e r s i t i e s p r o v i d e an e s p e c i a l l y i m p o r t a n t e n v i r o n m e n t o f p o l i c y d e c i s i o n making because  f o r the  study  t h e y h a v e , somewhat p a r a d o x i c a l l y ,  commitments to b o t h t h e s c i e n t i f i c r a t i o n a l i t y o f c l a s s i c a l and t h e c o l l e g i a ! i t y o f p o p u l a r p o l i t i c s .  economics  F i n a l l y , the present e x e r c i s e  22 requires that reasonably  sophisticated research concerning  m a k i n g i n t h e t y p e o f o r g a n i z a t i o n s e l e c t e d and a n a l y s e s p r o b l e m s i n t h a t t y p e o f o r g a n i z a t i o n be a v a i l a b l e .  decision of policy  As f o l l o w i n g c h a p -  t e r s w i l l e l a b o r a t e , b o t h t h e s e c o n d i t i o n s a r e met by u n i v e r s i t i e s and a u n i v e r s i t y p r o b l e m w i l l be c h o s e n as t h e f o c u s f o r t h e  study.  P O L I C Y A N A L Y S I S IN U N I V E R S I T I E S While Lasswell  and D r o r w r o t e p r i m a r i l y i n t e r m s o f g o v e r n m e n t  and p u b l i c p o l i c y , s i m i l a r i t i e s among d e c i s i o n m a k e r s i n p u b l i c t i o n s and a g e n c i e s ,  i n c l u d i n g u n i v e r s i t i e s , have been demonstrated  ( e . g . S a l a n i c k a n d P f e f f e r , 1974; 1971).  institu-  M a r c h and C o h e n , 1974;  The c o n d u c t o f a n a l y s i s i n t e n d e d  Baldridge,  to solve the p o l i c y problems  o f u n i v e r s i t i e s has b e e n c a l l e d i n s t i t u t i o n a l r e s e a r c h  ( R u s s e l l , 1967).  D e m o n s t r a t i n g t h e p a r a l l e l b e t w e e n i n s t i t u t i o n a l r e s e a r c h and two-world concept  p r o p o s e d by C o l e m a n ( 1 9 7 2 ) , F i n c h e r  the  observes:  In b r i e f , i n s t i t u t i o n a l r e s e a r c h e r s h a v e c l e a r l y o p t e d f o r a r o l e i n which they w i l l not e x p l a i n the nature and f u n c t i o n s o f h i g h e r e d u c a t i o n as a s o c i a l i n s t i t u t i o n b u t one i n w h i c h w h a t t h e y i n v e s t i g a t e , s t u d y , and r e p o r t w i l l be d i r e c t e d t o t h e i m p r o v e m e n t o f i n s t i t u t i o n a l f u n c t i o n s and a c t i v i t i e s . (1975:143) With t h a t o r i e n t a t i o n to improvement o f u n i v e r s i t i e s f u n c t i o n s , F i n c h e r summarizes three c l a s s e s of d i s t i n c t i o n s between i n s t i t u t i o n a l research  (on t h e r i g h t ) and t h e d i s c i p l i n e s . The c o n c e r n  (a) the  data  b a s e , ( b ) t h e m e t h o d s , and ( c ) t h e s u b j e c t m a t t e r d o m a i n ( s e e F i g u r e  1).  The d a t a u s e d f o r i n s t i t u t i o n a l r e s e a r c h r e f l e c t s d i f f e r e n c e s i n m e t h o d o f i n v e s t i g a t i o n and s u b j e c t m a t t e r .  Data are p r i m a r i l y o r i e n t e d  t o t h e c l i e n t o r p o l i c y m a k e r r a t h e r t h a n t h e t e s t i n g o f t h e o r y , and  may  f r e q u e n t l y be t h e a d m i n i s t r a t i v e o r s t a t i s t i c a l r e c o r d s o f an i n s t i t u t i o n  FIGURE 1 "A SCHEMA FOR P O L I C Y RESEARCH AND A N A L Y S I S "  DATA BASE Theory-oriented  User/product  Conclusion-oriented  oriented  .  Decision-oriented  Norm-referenced . . .  Criterion-referenced  Validity/reliability.  Credibility/fidelity  METHODOLOGY Experimental  design  C l a s s i c a l sampling  . statistics  Quasi-experimental  . . . . . . . Statistical  Summative e v a l u a t i o n  decision  Formative  P r e d i c t i o n as v e r i f i c a t i o n  Forecasting as  Hypothesi s - t e s t i n g  Developmental  design theory  evaluation instrumental  -demonstration  SUBJECT-MATTER DOMAIN Antecedents lead t o consequences. . . A l t e r n a t i v e s lead to consequences Conclusions General  provide explanations.  t h e o r y a n s w e r s how? . . . .  Nomological nets that are law-like Knowledge as t h e outcome  . Recommendations w i t h i n t e r p r e t a t i o n Choices and d e c i s i o n s answer which? Idiographic structures that are unique Planned and programmed a c t i o n  ( F i n c h e r , 1978)  24 w h i c h h a v e been f a t h e r e d f o r a n o t h e r p u r p o s e .  The d a t a m u s t be c r e d i b l e  t o t h e c l i e n t who may n o t a c c e p t t h e r e s u l t s o f r e s e a r c h e v e n t h o u g h s t a n d a r d s o f v a l i d i t y and r e l i a b i l i t y are  maintained.  The d i s t i n c t i o n i n m e t h o d o l o g y i s b e t w e e n t e s t i n g a and d e v e l o p i n g o r d e m o n s t r a t i n g particular action.  hypothesis  the f e a s i b i l i t y o r a d v i s a b i l i t y o f a  The m o s t r a d i c a l d i s t i n c t i o n i n v o l v e s t h e s u b j e c t  matter of i n s t i t u t i o n a l research.  O t h e r more t r a d i t i o n a l modes o f  r e s e a r c h "seek a r e l a t i o n s h i p between a n t e c e d e n t s  and  consequences  [whereas] p o l i c y research i s attuned to a l t e r n a t i v e s t h a t are i n the f u t u r e as w e l l as t h e i r l i k e l y c o n s e q u e n c e s . modes w o r k t o w a r d  permissable  Where t r a d i t i o n a l  c o n c l u s i o n s t h a t w i l l e x p l a i n some n a t u r a l phenomenon  or event, p o l i c y r e s e a r c h hopes to d e r i v e recommendations f o r s p e c i f i c a c t i o n t h a t c a n be i n t e r p r e t e d t o u n s o p h i s t i c a t e d a u d i e n c e s " 1 975:144).  (Fincher,  N o t e t h a t F i n c h e r u s e s p o l i c y r e s e a r c h i n t h e s e n s e t h a t we  have d e f i n e d p o l i c y a n a l y s i s ; i n d e e d i n s t i t u t i o n a l r e s e a r c h has a n a l y t i c o r i e n t a t i o n , r a t h e r than the  an  disciplinarian.  I n s t i t u t i o n a l r e s e a r c h a s a v a r i a n t o f p o l i c y a n a l y s i s has b e e n e x a m i n e d f r o m t h e r e s e a r c h e r ' s p e r s p e c t i v e i n an e f f o r t t o c o n c e p t u a l i z e the problem o f l i n k i n g a n a l y s i s to d e c i s i o n .  Sheehan (1974)  proposed  t h e " t h r e e h a t t h e o r y " as a model f o r d i s t i n g u i s h i n g b e t w e e n t h e a n a l y s t a n d t h e d e c i s i o n m a k e r , a n d b e t w e e n t h e a n a l y s t and t e c h n i c i a n who  a c t u a l l y performs  t h e c a l c u l a t i o n s . The model s t r i v e s  to d i f f e r e n t i a t e i n terms o f the p e r s p e c t i v e s , i . e . the o f the t h r e e .  In s u m m a r i z i n g  the  conceptions,  h i s t h e o r y , S h e e h a n more r e c e n t l y w r o t e :  25 The t h r e e - h a t t h e o r y says t h a t i n r e s p o n d i n g to the n e e d f o r p l a n n i n g and m a n a g e m e n t i n f o r m a t i o n , i n s t i t u t i o n a l r e s e a r c h a n a l y s t s m u s t be s u f f i c i e n t l y v e r s a t i l e to assume the p e r s p e c t i v e s o f t h r e e p e o p l e : (1) the d e c i s i o n - m a k e r , such as the p r e s i d e n t o r the a c a d e m i c s e n a t e , a s k i n g f o r i n f o r m a t i o n and c h o o s i n g t o use i t f o r d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g , ( 2 ) t h e a n a l y s t , w e a r i n g h i s o r h e r own h a t and t r a n s l a t i n g t h e i n f o r m a t i o n needed i n t o terms t h a t w i l l admit a s o l u t i o n t h a t i s , t a k i n g i n t o account the i m p r e c i s i o n s o f the q u e s t i o n , inadequacies o f the data base, l i m i t a t i o n s . o f a v a i l a b l e t o o l s and t e c h n i q u e s , t i m e , t a l e n t , a n d o t h e r r e s o u r c e s f o r p r o p e r a n a l y s i s ; and (3) the t e c h n i c i a n t o whom t h e p r a c t i c a l a n d t e c h n i c a l a s p e c t s ' o f g a t h e r i n g i n f o r m a t i o n a r e c l e a r and the m e a n i n g o f the r e s u l t a n t data i s unmistakable. The a n a l y s t m u s t be c a p a b l e o f w e a r i n g t h e t e c h n i c i a n ' s h a t a n d h e n c e be a b l e t o d i r e c t t h e s t u d y , a n a l y s i s , a n d o t h e r a c t i v i t i e s o f t h e t e c h n i c i a n a n d be a b l e t o a p p r e c i a t e t h e r e s u l t s . As an a d v i s o r a n d d a t a p r o v i d e r t o t h e d e c i s i o n - m a k e r , t h e a n a l y s t m u s t be c a p a b l e o f wearing the decision-maker's hat i n o r d e r to gain the new i n s i g h t s , u s e t h e i d e a s , a n d f o r m u l a t e t h e i n f o r m a t i o n t o m a t c h t h e d e c i s i o n - m a k e r ' s n e e d . The e f f e c t i v e n e s s o f the communication between the a n a l y s t and t h e d e c i s i o n - m a k e r d e p e n d s on t h e c o n f i d e n c e t h e y have i n each o t h e r . (1 9 7 7 : 9 3 ) The t r a n s l a t i o n s a n d t r a n s m i s s i o n s r e q u i r e d u n d e r C o l e m a n ' s  two  w o r l d c o n c e p t a r e c r y s t a l l i z e d i n S h e e h a n ' s i m a g e o f t h e a n a l y s t who  is  a b l e " t o w e a r t h e h a t " o f t h e d e c i s i o n m a k e r so t h a t he u l t i m a t e l y c a n match the d e c i s i o n maker's need.  The " h a t " may  be i n t e r p r e t e d a s t h e  model o f the d e c i s i o n problem o r s t r u c t u r e t h a t o b t a i n s i n the d e c i s i o n forum.  The a n a l y s t ' s own  for analysis.  " h a t " may  be i n t e r p r e t e d a s t h e model  Using Sheehan's metaphor, the importance  used  of consistency  o r c o n g r u e n c e b e t w e e n t h e m o d e l s u s e d f o r a n a l y s i s and m o d e l s u s e d f o r deciding is  underscored.  26 A U N I V E R S I T Y D E C I S I O N PROBLEM The S c i e n c e C o u n c i l u n i v e r s i t i e s i n Canada  o f Canada f o r e s e e s  ( F o r t i e r , 1979).  a troubled  future f o r  The r a p i d growth o f C a n a d i a n  u n i v e r s i t i e s i n t h e 1960',s r e s u l t e d i n a s y s t e m w i t h many s t r u c t u r a l weaknesses highlighted weaknesses  i n the 1970's.  Analyses published  by S t a t i s t i c s C a n a d a  have  t h e rank d i s t r i b u t i o n o f f u l l - t i m e f a c u l t y as one o f t h o s e (von Zur-Muehlen, 1977).  Projections  i n t h e 1980's a r e f o r e c a s t g e n e r a l l y  to decline  o f u n i v e r s i t y enrolment ( s e e , f o r example,  Clark  e t a l . , 1 9 7 9 ) a n d i t i s o b s e r v e d t h a t t h e h i r i n g o f new f a c u l t y may be restricted. The p r o b l e m i s n o t u n i q u e t o C a n a d a , a n d a E u r o p e a n w r i t e r n o t e s t h a t a m a j o r i m p l i c a t i o n o f s u c h r e s t r i c t i o n c o u l d be a " l o s s i n t h e p r o d u c t i v i t y and c r e a t i v i t y o f the research the advancement  o f science"  population  (Elstermann, 1978).  o f such a l o s s i s n o t p r e d i c t a b l e ,  but attention  which w i l l  retard  The n a t u r e o r l i k e l i h o o d to r e s t r i c t i o n o f  f a c u l t y h i r i n g has r a i s e d t h e problem o f f o r e c a s t i n g o r c o n t r o l l i n g t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f f a c u l t y among t h e a c a d e m i c r a n k s .  The m a t t e r o f rank .  d i s t r i b u t i o n o f f a c u l t y i s e x a m i n e d i n some d e t a i l i n C h a p t e r F o u r . H o w e v e r , t h e s e l e c t i o n o f i t a s an e x e m p l a r o f u n i v e r s i t y problems requires  policy  comment h e r e .  The h a l l m a r k s o f p o l i c y a r e i t s i m p o r t a n c e , w i d e  ramifications  f o r t h e s t r u c t u r e o f t h e i n s t i t u t i o n , and l o n g time p e r s p e c t i v e . are the fundamental elements i n the d e f i n i t i o n o f p o l i c y for the study.  S i m i l a r l y Coleman  These  established  (1972) has n o t e d t h a t a p o l i c y  p r o b l e m has t h e e s s e n t i a l f e a t u r e o f a r i s i n g i n t h e w o r l d o f a c t i o n . The m a t t e r o f d i s t r i b u t i o n o f u n i v e r s i t y f a c u l t y members among t h e a c a d e m i c r a n k s s a t i s f i e s t h a t c r i t e r i o n by a r i s i n g i n t h e u n i v e r s i t y ,  but o u t s i d e a n y d i s c i p l i n e .  T h e r e i s no t h e o r y o f r a n k .  M o r e o v e r , i t i s an i m p o r t a n t p r o b l e m b e c a u s e " t h e e x c e l l e n c e o f a u n i v e r s i t y i s the e x c e l l e n c e o f i t s f a c u l t y " ( e . g . Smith, 1978)  and  t h e r e seems t o be some d a n g e r o f t h a t d i m i n i s h i n g . I n d e e d , i t has been s p e c u l a t e d t h a t "perhaps the most i n t r a n s i g e n t c h a l l e n g e f a c i n g the f a c u l t y personnel system i s the r a p i d growth o f f a c u l t y h o l d i n g t e n u r e " (Smith, 1978).  I t w i l l , o f c o u r s e , be n e c e s s a r y t o e x a m i n e t h o s e  l i n k a g e s t o e x c e l l e n c e as p a r t o f t h i s s t u d y .  H o w e v e r , i t may  be  a s s u m e d t o be s u f f i c i e n t i f f a c u l t y r a n k i s s e e n t o be a p r o b l e m , f o r t h e r e i s no n e c e s s a r y c o n d i t i o n t h a t a c o n c e r n o r p r o b l e m be d e m o n s t r a b l e e m p i r i c a l l y f o r i t to c a t a l y z e a c t i o n o r draw the a t t e n t i o n o f p o l i c y makers. The m a t t e r o f i n t r a n s i g e n c e t o u c h e s u p o n t h e t i m e d i m e n s i o n o f the  f a c u l t y rank problem.  Long time commitments a r e a s s o c i a t e d w i t h  s e n i o r rank through the v e h i c l e o f academic t e n u r e .  On t h i s d i m e n s i o n  as w e l l , t h e r e f o r e , f a c u l t y rank d i s t r i b u t i o n i s a p o l i c y m a t t e r . S m a l l ( 1 9 7 9 ) has c r y s t a l l i z e d c o n c e r n a b o u t a c a d e m i c c a r e e r s i n two c o n t r a s t i n g " a s s u m p t i o n s " a b o u t u n i v e r s i t y s t a f f i n g academic rank.  The " t r a d i t i o n a l " a s s u m p t i o n s t a t e s :  including  "The  interests  o f t h e i n s t i t u t i o n a r e b e s t s e r v e d by a s t a b l e body o f s a t i s f i e d a c a d e m i c s , who a r e t i e d t o t h e i n s t i t u t i o n by l o y a l t y , s e n i o r i t y a n d c o n d i t i o n s o f w o r k . " (1 9 7 9 : 6 3 ) .  Noting the i n f l e x i b i l i t i e s  which  c h a r a c t e r i z e u n i v e r s i t i e s , S m a l l p r o p o s e s an a l t e r n a t i v e s t a f f i n g assumption which s t a t e s :  "The i n t e r e s t s o f t h e i n s t i t u t i o n a r e b e s t  s e r v e d by a f l u i d p r o f e s s o r i a t e whose m o b i l i t y p o t e n t i a l i s e n h a n c e d by c o n d i t i o n s o f a p p o i n t m e n t . "  (1979:64).  The p o s s i b i l i t y o f m o v i n g f r o m t h e " t r a d i t i o n a l  assumption"  28 t o t h e a l t e r n a t i v e s u g g e s t e d b y S m a l l makes u n d e r s t a n d i n g t h e i m p l i c a t i o n s o f each e s s e n t i a l . perspective  Taken together,  and fundamental r a m i f i c a t i o n s  the importance, long-time o f maintaining  or modifying  t h e f a c u l t y r a n k d i s t r i b u t i o n i n u n i v e r s i t i e s makes i t s s e l e c t i o n a s a case problem f o r t h i s study e s p e c i a l l y  appropriate.  SUMMARY This c h a p t e r has introduced and p o l i c y a n a l y s i s .  the notions  of policy, policy  research  P o l i c y was d e f i n e d a s a n e x p l i c i t l y o r i m p l i c i t l y  selected guideline f o r future action which a f f e c t s the structure o f the organization,  requires  a long time perspective  fications o f a l l generalizations  and has t h e w i d e s t r a m i -  about the organization.  Policy  is the study o f t h e dynamics o f p o l i c y making, whereas p o l i c y  research  analysis  i s t h e c r e a t i o n and study o f t h e s u b s t a n c e o f p o l i c y i n an e f f o r t t o maximize i t s appropriateness and e f f e c t i v e n e s s . The p r o b l e m o f e n h a n c i n g p o l i c y a n a l y s i s w i t h t h e r e s u l t s o f policy research  t o i m p r o v e p o l i c y m a k i n g was r e v i e w e d t o i d e n t i f y t h e n e e d  to examine t h e technologies  o f p o l i c y a n a l y s i s i n l i g h t o f known c h a r a c -  t e r i s t i c s o f p o l i c y d e c i s i o n making t o i d e n t i f y problems and s u g g e s t solutions.  B a s e d on t h e n o t i o n o f two w o r l d s , a c t i o n a n d r e s e a r c h ,  f a c i n g i n t h e making o f d e c i s i o n s ,  a strategy  inter-  f o r examining the potential  f o r l i n k s b e t w e e n a n a l y s i s a n d d e c i s i o n was p r o p o s e d . Drawing on t h e n o t i o n o f c o g n i t i v e d i s s o n a n c e as a f a c t o r i n h i b i t i n g the use o f a n a l y s i s i n d e c i s i o n , the p o s s i b l e requirement f o r c o n c e p t u a l c o n g r u e n c e b e t w e e n a n a l y s i s a n d d e c i s i o n was h i g h l i g h t e d . p a r t i c u l a r , t e s t i n g f o r congruence between t h e design  In  o f analysis and  m o d e l s o f d e c i s i o n m a k i n g p r o c e s s e s was i d e n t i f i e d a s t h e p r i m a r y f o c u s  29 for the study.  I t was s u g g e s t e d t h a t c o n g r u e n c e c o u l d b e e x a m i n e d  by e x a m i n i n g a n a l y t i c a l m o d e l s a n d d e c i s i o n m o d e l s i n t e r m s o f a common s e t o f d e c i s i o n - r e l a t e d c r i t e r i a a n d t h e n c o m p a r i n g t h e r e s u l t i n g profiles.  To p r o v i d e a parsimonious example f o r examining  a c a s e s t u d y a p p r o a c h was s e l e c t e d .  congruence,  That case would r e q u i r e a basis  of both r e l e v a n t p o l i c y research and p o l i c y a n a l y s i s . A f t e r i d e n t i f y i n g u n i v e r s i t i e s as a c l a s s o r o r g a n i z a t i o n s o f p a r t i c u l a r i n t e r e s t , a c a s e p r o b l e m was c h o s e n f r o m t h e u n i v e r s i t y environment.  Noting t h e importance o f t h e f a c u l t y o f a u n i v e r s i t y and  the f a r - r e a c h i n g i m p l i c a t i o n s o f t h e c o n d i t i o n s o f f a c u l t y employment, t h e c a s e p r o b l e m o f a f a c u l t y r a n k d i s t r i b u t i o n was i d e n t i f i e d . the importance o f t h e case problem f o r contemporary  Moreover,  u n i v e r s i t i e s was  underscored. T h e c o n c e p t o f d e c i s i o n i s v i t a l a s a p o s s i b l e means t o d e v e l o p comparisons o f s e l e c t e d models used f o r p o l i c y a n a l y s i s and o f d e c i s i o n making models d e r i v e d from d i s c i p l i n e r e s e a r c h .  The case  requires a reasonable s e t o f models o f both types.  approach  However, b e f o r e any  review o f those models can proceed, i t i s necessary t o develop a comprehensive  paradigm o r c o n c e p t i o n o f d e c i s i o n that w i l l p r o v i d e t h e  common s e t o f c r i t e r i a f o r t h a t  exercise.  30 Chapter  Three  A GENERAL D E C I S I O N PARADIGM Introduction T h i s c h a p t e r i n t r o d u c e s and i l l u s t r a t e s a g e n e r a l model o f t h e structure o f a decision.  Research  demonstrating  the s e n s i t i v i t y to  c o n c e p t u a l i z a t i o n t h a t i s c h a r a c t e r i s t i c o f analyses o f d e c i s i o n making i s summarized t o p o s i t t h e value o f a broad conceptual bias.  Several competing  overarching conceptual  view to avoid  t h e o r i e s o f d e c i s i o n a r e s k e t c h e d a n d an framework p r e s e n t e d .  The framework uses  three  types o f v a r i a b l e s , f o u r l i n k i n g s t r u c t u r e s , a time h o r i z o n and treatment o f u n c e r t a i n t y to r e l a t e e x i s t i n g conceptions o f d e c i s i o n as s p e c i a l cases o f a l a r g e r view.  The general framework i s examined from t h e  viewpoint o f other attempts  a t s y n t h e s i s and i s e l a b o r a t e d as a frame  o f r e f e r e n c e f o r r e s e a r c h by d e v e l o p i n g o p e r a t i o n a l d e f i n i t i o n s o f i t s elements  a n d i n d i c a t o r s o f v a r i a t i o n on each t h r o u g h a r e v i e w o f  selected  literature. THE PROBLEM O F MODEL B I A S  A problem  i n any  study  i s the p o s s i b i l i t y o f d i s t o r t i o n i n  the c o l l e c t i n g and i n t e r p r e t i n g o f data. Experimenter  This i s a version o f the  E f f e c t (Rosenthal, 1966) i n which the r e s e a r c h e r  t i o n a l l y seeks o n l y those data which support h i s hypothesis.  unintenMoreover,  the academic background o f the researcher can e f f e c t h i s p e r c e p t i o n o f reality.  S p e c i f i c a l l y , t h e d e c i s i o n model a r e s e a r c h e r u s e s t o f r a m e  i n v e s t i g a t i o n can " f i l t e r , d i s t o r t , and predetermine  his research findings  and b i a s t h e r e s u l t i n g d e t e r m i n a t i o n o f t h e r e a l d e c i s i o n p r o c e s s " 1 975:37).  (Kent,  Thomas Kuhn n o t e s t h a t t h e c u r r e n t t h e o r e t i c a l model o r that a d i s c i p l i n e proposes w i l l r e s t r i c t research Structure of S c i e n t i f i c Revolutions"  (1970).  "paradigm  In  "The  Kuhn u s e s t h e t e r m p a r a d i g m t o  d e s c r i b e t h e ways t h a t t h e s c i e n t i f i c c o m m u n i t y v i e w s t h e w o r l d .  It  t h e r e f o r e f o l l o w s t h a t to adopt a paradigm i s to adopt a c r i t e r i o n f o r choosing  problems f o r study.  In t h i s s e n s e , t h e p a r a d i g m i s a f i l t e r  w h i c h c a n i n j e c t b i a s i n t o i n q u i r y by e m p h a s i z i n g a p a r t i c u l a r  perspec-  tive of r e a l i t y . In a s i m i l a r v e i n , P o l a n y i f o c u s e d on t h e b i a s a t t r i b u t a b l e t o the conceptual  a p p r o a c h t o a s t u d y by n o t i n g  that:  The s c i e n t i s t ' s i m a g i n a t i o n d o e s n o t roam a b o u t c a s t i n g up r a n d o m h y p o t h e s e s t o be t e s t e d by him. He s t a r t s by t h r u s t i n g f o r w a r d i d e a s he f e e l s t o be p r o m i s i n g b e c a u s e he s e n s e s t h e a v a i l a b i l i t y o f r e s o u r c e s t h a t w i l l s u p p o r t them - and h i s i m a g i n a t i o n t h e n g o e s on t o hammer away i n d i r e c t i o n s f e l t t o be p l a u s i b l e , b r i n g i n g up m a t e r i a l t h a t has a r e a s o n a b l e c h a n c e o f c o n f i r m i n g these guesses. (1968:7) In r e v i e w i n g  s e v e r a l s t u d i e s o f d e c i s i o n m a k i n g i n an u r b a n  s e t t i n g , Walton noted t h a t p o l i t i c a l s c i e n t i s t s , f o r example, c o u l d well be f i n d i n g o n l y a r t i f a c t s o f a m e t h o d by r e l y i n g on a s i n g l e  technique  i n o v e r t h i r t y d i f f e r e n t s t u d i e s (1 9 6 6 ) . Mead p o i n t s o u t t h a t t h e r e p e r t o i r e o f r e s p o n s e s p o s s e s s e d i n d i v i d u a l i s a function o f genetics, his environmental  by an  h i s t o r y and  t h e p a r a d i g m w i t h w h i c h he w o r k s ( 1 9 5 6 ) ; m o r e o v e r , t h e s e a l l i n f l u e n c e h i s p e r c e p t i o n o f the world, s i n c e "the person  carries this repertoire  and i t s i m p l i c a t i o n s f o r n o t i c i n g w h e r e v e r he g o e s " ( W e i c k ^ 1 9 6 9 : 2 6 ) . Hence s u p p o r t  f o r t h e n o t i o n o f model b i a s e x i s t s i n b o t h s t u d i e s  p e r c e p t i o n and a n a l y t i c a l t r e a t m e n t s  on t h e s c i e n t i f i c m e t h o d .  of  32 In c a s e a n a l y s e s o f g o v e r n m e n t d e c i s i o n s ( A l l i s o n , 1 9 7 1 ;  Kent,  1 9 7 5 ) , and u n i v e r s i t y d e c i s i o n s ( M i l l e t t , 1 978), s u p p o r t i n g e v i d e n c e f o r each o f m u l t i p l e models o f d e c i s i o n making i s found.  In Kuhn's  terms,  t h e p r o b l e m may be i n t e r p r e t e d a s one o f a l a c k o f c o m p r e h e n s i v e t o w h i c h t h e s e v e r a l m o d e l s may  theory  be r e l a t e d by s h o w i n g e a c h model t o be  an i s o m o r p h o f one s u b s e c t i o n o f an i n t e g r a t e d c o n c e p t i o n . R u d n e r c a u t i o n s us a b o u t o v e r - e n t h u s i a s t i c use o f t h e t e r m  theory.  In t h e p r e s e n t c a s e , t h e r e q u i r e m e n t s o f a t h e o r y a r e n o t f u l l y met i n s e v e r a l ways.  R u d n e r d e f i n e s a t h e o r y a s "a s y s t e m a t i c a l l y r e l a t e d s e t  o f s t a t e m e n t s , i n c l u d i n g some l a w l i k e g e n e r a l i z a t i o n s , t h a t i s e m p i r i c a l l y t e s t a b l e " (1 9 5 6 : 1 0 ) .  He n o t e s t h a t much o f w h a t t h e s o c i a l s c i e n t i s t w i l l  a c h i e v e w i l l n o t m e e t t h a t d e f i n t i o n f o r two r e a s o n s : t h o u g h t h e s c i e n t i s t may  "first,  be d i r e c t l y a i m i n g a t t h e c o m p l e t e  because,  formulation  o f a t h e o r y , a c h i e v i n g t h i s i s s i m p l y too d i f f i c u l t ; and, second,  because  t h e s c i e n t i s t may n o t be a i m i n g a t t h e f o r m u l a t i o n o f a t h e o r y a t a l l , b u t r a t h e r some o t h e r k i n d o f f o r m u l a t i o n " ( R u d n e r , 1 9 6 6 : 2 8 ) .  With  t h o s e comments i n m i n d , a n o t e on t h e l i m i t a t i o n s o f m o d e l s , a s a c l a s s o f incomplete t h e o r e t i c a l e n t i t i e s , w i l l serve to provide s p e c i f i c f o r the  study.  A N o t e on M o d e l s a n d M o d e l l i n g Kaplan proposes  that:  . . . any system A i s a model o f System B i f the s t u d y o f A i s useful f o r the understanding of B without r e g a r d t o any d i r e c t o r i n d i r e c t c a u s a l c o n n e c t i o n between A and B ... In a w o r d , when one s y s t e m i s a m o d e l o f a n o t h e r t h e y r e s e m b l e one a n o t h e r i n f o r m and i n c o n t e n t . (1964:263)  caveats  K a p l a n a l s o d e s c r i b e s a m o d e l as a " s c i e n t i f i c m e t a p h o r " w h i c h i d e n t i f i e s s i m i l a r i t i e s t o a n o t h e r s y s t e m and i n c o r p o r a t e s them i n t o t h e model's system.  Thereby,  model b u i l d i n g l e a d s t o t h e o r y b u i l d i n g by  i d e n t i f y i n g or i n c o r p o r a t i n g the p r e v i o u s l y undetected or u n r e l a t e d . i d e n t i f y i n g elements  In  o f the r e a l world which are important to i t s  u n d e r s t a n d i n g , models p r o v i d e the r e s e a r c h e r w i t h a c o n c r e t e n e s s  which  i s not a v a i l a b l e i n the a b s t r a c t n e s s o f a t h e o r y , y e t i s amenable to t h e o r i z i n g f o r i t r e q u i r e s o n l y a t r a n s l a t i o n i n t o t h e t h e o r e t i c when r e s u l t s i n t h e model a r e o b t a i n e d  (Rudner, 1 966).  F i n a l l y , models  a s s i s t i n t h e o r g a n i z a t i o n o f d a t a by p r o v i d i n g a f r a m e w o r k t o h i g h l i g h t s p e c i f i c elements  of reality.  On t h e l i m i t a t i o n s o f m o d e l s , K a p l a n makes f i v e o b s e r v a t i o n s . F i r s t , m o d e l s a r e n o t r e a l i t y and c a r e m u s t be e x e r c i s e d i n t r a n s l a t i n g to r e a l i t y o r theory.  S e c o n d , ".  . . s c i e n c e advances on the b a s i s , not  o f what i s l o g i c a l l y p o s s i b l e , b u t o f w h a t i s a v a i l a b l e t o i t i n t h e concrete problematic s i t u a t i o n " (Kaplan, 1964:279).  Therefore, conclu-  s i o n s m u s t be b a s e d on i n s i g h t s g a i n e d by r e l a t i n g a m o d e l b a c k t o r e a l i t y , n o t m e r e l y on r e l a t i o n s h i p s i n t h e m o d e l i t s e l f . p o w e r f u l l y s e l e c t i v e h i g h l i g h t i n g o f elements w e l l as a v i r t u e .  o f r e a l i t y has a p r i c e as  The u t i l i t y o f a model i s l i m i t e d t o t h e e x t e n t t h a t  i t ignores elements  o f r e a l i t y , and one m u s t n o t p r e s u m e t h a t a l l  r e l a t i o n s h i p s are r e f l e c t e d even i n a complex f o r m u l a t i o n . tend to overemphasize  p r e c i s i o n and r i g o r .  i m p r o p e r l y e x a c t o r a p p e a r t o show e x a c t n e s s F i n a l l y , a "map  T h i r d , the  Fourth, models  Therefore, they are often that i s not obtainable.  r e a d i n g " e r r o r c a n be made i n f a i l i n g t o r e a l i z e t h a t a  model i s o n l y a p a r t i c u l a r t y p e o f r e p r e s e n t a t i o n .  Map r e a d i n g e r r o r s  a r e ". . . . t h e o b v e r s e o f t h e e r r o r o f o v e r s i m p l i c a t i o n :  instead of  l e a v i n g o u t o f t h e model s o m e t h i n g w h i c h s h o u l d be i n i t , we r e a d t h e model as c o n t a i n i n g s o m e t h i n g which i s i n f a c t n o t a p a r t o f i t " ( K a p l a n , 1964:285). One o f t h e t y p e s o f n o n t h e o r e t i c s t r u c t u r e s i d e n t i f i e d by R u d n e r is the "conceptual  model" (1966:28).  The n o n t h e o r e t i c a r e d i s t i n c t f r o m  t h e o r i e s " i n t h a t t h e y c o n t a i n no e m p i r i c a l a s s e r t i o n s ; w h a t e v e r t r u t h s t h e y c o n t a i n a r e l o g i c a l o r a n a l y t i c " ( 1 9 6 6 : 2 9 ) , we may l o o k ,  therefore,  to h i s c l a s s i f i c a t i o n s o f " d e f i n i t i o n a l schemata" and " a n a l y t i c a l conceptual  schemata" f o r c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f conceptual  D e f i n i t i o n a l s c h e m a t a make no s t a t e m e n t s  models.  about t h e i r p r e d i c a t e s ;  they c o n s i s t only o f the p r e d i c a t e s and d e f i n i t i o n s t h e r e o f . a s p e c i a l case o f the a n a l y t i c a l conceptual cal conceptual  schemata i n t h a t an a n a l y t i -  schemata a l s o i n c l u d e s "a s e t o f a n a l y t i c , o r l o g i c a l l y  true o r " t r u i s t i c " sentences" sense t h a t Kaplan  (Rudner, 1966:29).  They a r e models i n the  provides f o r a s c i e n t i f i c metaphor, based i n  d e f i n i t i o n a l p r e c i s i o n and r i g o r i n assembling  statements  e l e m e n t t o a n o t h e r ; y e t t h e y a r e n o t so d e v e l o p e d theories.  They a r e  T h e r e i s an i n t e r m e d i a t e  r e l a t i n g one  a s t o be c a l l e d  stage i m p l i e d here, and Rudner h i n t s  a t i t when he s t a t e s t h a t " B o t h d e f i n i t i o n a l s c h e m a t a a n d a n a l y t i c a l conceptual  schemata though themselves n o n t h e o r e t i c c o n s t r u c t i o n s i n  social science, a r e , nevertheless, presumably destined f o r ultimate i n c l u s i o n w i t h i n some s o c i a l - s c i e n c e t h e o r y . "  (1 966:31 ) .  Our a t t e n t i o n i s t h e r e f o r e d i r e c t e d t o t h e i d e n t i f i c a t i o n o f t h e p r e d i c a t e s used i n c o n c e p t u a l i z i n g a b o u t d e c i s i o n making, t o t h e d e f i n i t i o n o f those p r e d i c a t e s , and t h e development o f statements them.  relating  T h i s e x e r c i s e s h o u l d p a y p a r t i c u l a r a t t e n t i o n t o o v e r c o m i n g model  b i a s by s u r v e y i n g a b r o a d l i t e r a t u r e o f c o n c e p t u a l i z a t i o n a n d s h o u l d  a t t e m p t t o f i n d t h o s e t e r m s a n d c o n c e p t s w h i c h may r e l a t e t o an integrated conception theoretical status.  and p r o v i d e f o r f u r t h e r development towards With i t s t h e o r e t i c a l o r i e n t a t i o n , i f not substance,  s u c h an e x e r c i s e i s c l e a r l y p a r t o f a d i s c i p l i n a r y i n q u i r y .  For the  purposes o f t h e study, a l i m i t a t i o n on i t s scope i s necessary. The l i t e r a t u r e o f d e c i s i o n m a k i n g i s l a r g e a n d m u l t i - f a c e t e d . The p r o b l e m o f model b i a s w i l l be c o n t r o l l e d f o r i n e x a m i n i n g t h e l i t e r a t u r e by d r a w i n g o n s t u d i e s w h i c h u s e d m u l t i p l e m o d e l s , e i t h e r f o r a n a l y s i s o f cases, o r f o r attempts  at synthesis.  In so d o i n g , a  broader  l i t e r a t u r e i s i d e n t i f i e d and i t s s a l i e n t f e a t u r e s h i g h l i g h t e d . The next s e c t i o n accomplishes  t h i s by b r i e f l y s k e t c h i n g  several  schools o f thought o r models o f d e c i s i o n making i n u n i v e r s i t i e s , s t a t i n g a s y n t h e s i z i n g model w h i c h c l a i m s t o i n c o r p o r a t e each as a s p e c i a l  case,  c r i t i q i n g t h e " m e t a - m o d e l , " a n d e x a m i n i n g i t s a p p l i c a b i l i t y i n some detail. MODELS OF ORGANIZATIONAL DECISION MAKING S i m i l a r i t i e s i n a d a p t i v e b e h a v i o r h a v e b e e n d e m o n s t r a t e d among public bureaucracies  and o t h e r types o f o r g a n i z a t i o n s such as business  f i r m s a n d u n i v e r s i t i e s (Cohen a n d M a r c h , 1 9 7 4 ; M a n s e s a n d M a r c h , 1 9 7 8 ) . Conceptual  models o f decision-making  i n o r g a n i z a t i o n s have been  on t h e b a s i s o f a v a r i e t y o f t h e o r i e s o f o r g a n i z a t i o n .  Models o f  d e c i s i o n m a k i n g i n u n i v e r s i t i e s h a v e b e e n e x a m i n e d b y many and may be s u m m a r i z e d u n d e r e i g h t a l t e r n a t i v e c o n c e p t u a l bureaucracy,  developed  researchers  structures:  c o l l e g i u m , p o l i t i c a l incremental ism, open system approach,  compound s y s t e m , o r g a n i z e d a n a r c h y , (Weathersby, 1975).  r a t i o n a l a n a l y s i s and c y b e r n e t i c s  36 Bureaucracy S t r o u p (1966) examined u n i v e r s i t i e s from the v i e w p o i n t o f Weber's c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f a b u r e a u c r a c y and i d e n t i f i e s e i g h t c o n d i t i o n s w h i c h a r e i m p o r t a n t t o a b u r e a u c r a t i z e d v i e w and a r e s a t i s f i e d by i n s t i t u t i o n s of higher education: 1.  Competence i s the c r i t e r i o n used f o r  appointment;  2.  O f f i c i a l s are appointed not e l e c t e d ;  3.  S a l a r i e s a r e f i x e d d i r e c t l y by t h e o r g a n i z a t i o n r a t h e r than determined i n a " f r e e f e e " s t y l e ;  4.  Rank i s r e c o g n i z e d and  5.  The c a r e e r i s e x c l u s i v e , no o t h e r w o r k i s d o n e ;  6.  The s t y l e o f l i f e i s c e n t e r e d a r o u n d organization;  7.  S e c u r i t y i s present i n the tenure  8.  P e r s o n a l and o r g a n i z a t i o n a l p r o p e r t y a r e separated.  respected;  the  system;  ( B a l d r i d g e , 1971  :10)  The b u r e a u c r a t i c v i e w i s b a s e d on t h e o r g a n i z a t i o n a l c h a r t o f t h e i n s t i t u t i o n a n d i m p l i e s t h a t d e c i s i o n s a r e made a t o r n e a r t h e t o p o f the pyramid and a r e implemented d e l e g a t e d from the top.  t h r o u g h i t on t h e b a s i s o f a u t h o r i t y  However, the i n f o r m a l p r o c e s s e s o f i n f l u e n c e  and p e r s u a s i o n have been p r o p o s e d t o be m o r e i m p o r t a n t i n t h e r e a l formation o f d e c i s i o n s i n u n i v e r s i t i e s than the formal s t r u c t u r e o f a u t h o r i t y ( B a l d r i d g e , 1971). Collegium An e m p h a s i s on e q u a l i t y among c o l l e a g u e s a n d a p r e f e r e n c e f o r consensus  as t h e r u l e f o r m a k i n g d e c i s i o n s a r e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c o f t h e  collegium model.  John M i l l e t t e x p r e s s e d t h e m o d e l as r e f l e c t i n g  a community o f s c h o l a r s : The c o n c e p t o f community p r e s u p p o s e s an o r g a n i z a t i o n i n which f u n c t i o n s a r e d i f f e r e n t i a t e d and i n which s p e c i a l i z a t i o n m u s t be b r o u g h t t o g e t h e r , o r t h e c o o r dination, i f you w i l l , i s achieved not through a s t r u c t u r e o f s u p e r o r d i n a t i o n and s u b o r d i n a t i o n o f persons and groups b u t through a dynamic o f consensus. (1962:234-235) T h i s view p l a c e s t h e r e s p o n s i b i l i t y f o r i m p l e m e n t a t i o n o f d e c i s i o n s on the  subunit charges with administration.  However, t h e r o l e o f a d m i n i s -  t r a t o r s i n making d e c i s i o n s i s merely as c a t a l y s t o r consensus for faculty. competence  starter  The d i f f e r e n t i a t i o n o f f u n c t i o n s i s based on t e c h n i c a l  r a t h e r t h a n i m p l i e d i n an o f f i c i a l r o l e and stems from t h e  p r o f e s s i o n a l s t a t u r e o f f a c u l t y (Parsons, 1972). F a c u l t y a r e members o f m o r e t h a n o n e c o l l e g i u m , h o w e v e r , a n d c a n demonstrate l o y a l t i e s t o a d i s c i p l i n e r a t h e r than t o the p a r t i c u l a r i n s t i t u t i o n b y w h i c h t h e y may be e m p l o y e d a t a g i v e n t i m e .  Moreover,  under c o n d i t i o n s o f s c a r c e r e s o u r c e s , t h e achievement o f consensus i s made d i f f i c u l t s i n c e a g a i n b y o n e i s a l o s s b y a n o t h e r a n d r a i s e s a n emphasis on i n t e r p e r s o n a l o r i n t e r g r o u p power. Political  Incremental ism  Political  s c i e n t i s t s and s o c i o l o g i s t s have d e m o n s t r a t e d t h a t t h e  power o f a s i n g l e i n d i v i d u a l i n an o r g a n i z a t i o n i s r a r e l y t h e power t o d e c i d e ; r a t h e r i t i s t h e power t o persuade. made, i s t h e r e s u l t a n t o f p o l i t i c a l  T h e d e c i s i o n , when i t i s  f o r c e s which impinge on i n d i v i d u a l s  and a r e e x p r e s s e d by i n d i v i d u a l s . Graham A l l i s o n a c k n o w l e d g e d  the role of conflict, bargaining,  advocacy, c o a l i t i o n and p r e s s u r e groups and summarized i n c r e m e n t a l model  i n these terms:  the political  38 The o r g a n i z i n g c o n c e p t s o f t h i s p a r a d i g m c a n be a r r a n g e d as s t r a n d s i n t h e a n s w e r t o f o u r i n t e r r e l a t e d q u e s t i o n s : Who p l a y s ? What d e t e r m i n e s e a c h p l a y e r ' s s t a n d ? What d e t e r m i n e s e a c h p l a y e r ' s r e l a t i v e i n f l u e n c e ? How d o e s t h e game c o m b i n e p l a y e r s ' s t a n d s , i n f l u e n c e , and moves t o y i e l d g o v e r n m e n t a l d e c i s i o n s and a c t i o n s ? (1971:164) Using the s o c i o l o g i c a l concepts o f c o n f l i c t theory,  community  p o w e r and i n t e r e s t g r o u p s i n o r g a n i z a t i o n i n b u i l d i n g h i s a n a l y s i s o f d e c i s i o n m a k i n g a t New p o l i t i c a l model ( 1 9 7 1 ) .  York U n i v e r s i t y , B a l d r i d g e found support f o r a He c o m m e n t s :  Rather than a w h o l i s t i c e n t e r p r i s e , the u n i v e r s i t y i s a p l u r a l i s t i c s y s t e m , o f t e n f r a c t u r e d by c o n f l i c t s a l o n g the l i n e s o f d i s c i p l i n e s , f a c u l t y subgroups, s t u d e n t s u b c u l t u r e s , s p l i t s between admini s t r a t o r s and f a c u l t i e s , and r i f f s b e t w e e n p r o f e s s i o n a l s c h o o l s . The a c a d e m i c k i n g d o m i s t o r n a p a r t i n many w a y s , and t h e r e a r e few k i n g s o f t h e s y s t e m who c a n e n f o r c e c o o p e r a t i o n and u n i t y . T h e r e i s l i t t l e p e a c e i n a c a d e m i a : w a r f a r e i s common and no l e s s d e a d l y t h a n i t i s p o l i t e . The c r i t i c a l p o i n t i s t h i s : because the s o c i a l s t r u c t u r e o f the u n i v e r s i t y i s l o o s e , ambiguous, s h i f t i n g , and p o o r l y d e f i n e d , the power s t r u c t u r e o f the u n i v e r s i t y i s a l s o l o o s e , a m b i g u o u s , s h i f t i n g and p o o r l y d e f i n e d . (1 9 7 1 : 1 0 7 ) A l l i s o n ' s f o u r q u e s t i o n s p r o v i d e the key to u n d e r s t a n d i n g d e c i s i o n under the p o l i t i c a l model.  No one p e r s o n  r e a l l y decides.  I n d i v i d u a l s choose to j o i n a c o a l i t i o n or lobby independently outcome  a  and  the  o f t h e p r o c e s s i s a f u n c t i o n o f i n d i v i d u a l o r g r o u p power  (Salancik  and P f e f f e r , 1 9 7 4 ) .  Open S y s t e m A p p r o a c h K a t z and Kahn ( 1 9 6 6 ) a p p l i e d t h e c o n c e p t s  o f open systems to  o r g a n i z a t i o n s and c h a l l e n g e d t h e p o s s i b i l i t y o f a s i n g l e g l o b a l  goal.  James Thompson u s e d an o p e n s y s t e m s v i e w t o i d e n t i f y m a j o r d i m e n s i o n s  39 to any d e c i s i o n i s s u e : (2) p r e f e r e n c e s  (1) b e l i e f s about c a u s e / e f f e c t r e l a t i o n s , and  r e g a r d i n g p o s s i b l e outcomes (1967:134).  t h o s e two, Thompson proposed  On t h e b a s i s o f  f o u r s t r a t e g i e s f o r d e c i s i o n making based  on p e r c e p t i o n s o f u n c e r t a i n t y .  When p r e f e r e n c e s a b o u t o u t c o m e a n d  b e l i e f s about r e l a t i o n s h i p s a r e both c e r t a i n , a computational f o r d e c i s i o n i s most a p p r o p r i a t e .  strategy  When p r e f e r e n c e s a r e c e r t a i n a n d  b e l i e f s about causal r e l a t i o n s h i p s a r e n o t , a judgmental s t r a t e g y i s most appropriate.  When t h e r e i s c e r t a i n t y a b o u t c a u s e a n d e f f e c t r e l a t i o n s h i p s ,  but preferences  about p o s s i b l y outcomes i s u n c e r t a i n , a compromise  s t r a t e g y i s most a p p r o p r i a t e .  When t h e r e i s u n c e r t a i n t y a b o u t b o t h  p r e f e r e n c e s and c a u s a t i o n , an i n s p i r a t i o n a l s t r a t e g y i s most  appropriate  (1967:134-135). The e m p h a s i s o n u n c e r t a i n t y a r i s e s i n T h o m p s o n ' s i n t e r p r e t a t i o n o f open systems: Most o f o u r b e l i e f s about complex o r g a n i z a t i o n s f o l l o w f r o m o n e o r t h e o t h e r o f two d i s t i n c t s t r a t e g i e s . T h e c l o s e d system s t r a t e g y seeks c e r t a i n t y by i n c o r p o r a t i n g only those v a r i a b l e s p o s i t i v e l y a s s o c i a t e d with goal a c h i e v e m e n t a n d s u b j e c t i n g them t o a m o n o l i t h i c c o n t r o l network. The open-system s t r a t e g y s h i f t s a t t e n t i o n from goal achievement t o s u r v i v a l , and i n c o r p o r a t e s u n c e r t a i n t y by r e c o g n i z i n g o r g a n i z a t i o n a l i n t e r d e p e n d ence w i t h e n v i r o n m e n t / A newer t r a d i t i o n e n a b l e s us to c o n c e i v e o f t h e o r g a n i z a t i o n as an open system, indeterminate and faced with u n c e r t a i n t y , but subject to c r i t e r i a o f r a t i o n a l i t y and hence needing c e r t a i n t y . (1967:13) Richman and Farmer have developed understanding  an open systems approach f o r  u n i v e r s i t y d e c i s i o n making which i s based on Thompson.  They d e f i n e a u n i v e r s i t y d e c i s i o n system thus:  40 . . . a continuously importing - transforming e x p o r t i n g s y s t e m . The s y s t e m r e m a i n s i n d y n a m i c , n o t s t a t i c , e q u i l i b r i u m - i f i t s u r v i v e s - and c o n t i n u o u s f e e d b a c k can l e a d t o c h a n g e s i n i n p u t s , t r a n s f o r m a t i o n p r o c e s s e s , and f u t u r e o u t p u t s . The o r g a n i z a t i o n i s v i e w e d as t r a n s a c t i n g w i t h e x t e r n a l environmental elements with r e s p e c t to t h e i m p o r t i n g and e x p o r t i n g o f money, p e o p l e , e n e r g y , m a t e r i a l , g o o d s and s e r v i c e s , i n f o r m a t i o n , a n d so o n . . . . A n o p e n s y s t e m s e e k s m u l t i p l e g o a l s , and the i n d i v i d u a l s c o n s t i t u e n c i e s , subu n i t s , and s u b s y s t e m s i n v o l v e d o f t e n h a v e d i f f e r e n t v a l u e s and o b j e c t i v e s . . . . a u n i v e r s i t y i s a set of interdependent p a r t s t h a t t o g e t h e r make up a w h o l e b e c a u s e e a c h c o n t r i b u t e s s o m e t h i n g and r e c e i v e s s o m e t h i n g f r o m the whole which, i n t u r n , i s i n t e r d e p e n d e n t with some l a r g e r e n v i r o n m e n t . The w h o l e i s n o t j u s t t h e sum o f t h e p a r t s - t h e r e i s s y n e r g y - b u t t h e s y s t e m i t s e l f can be e x p l a i n e d as a t o t a l i t y . ( R i c h m a n and F a r m e r , 1 9 7 4 : 5 ) Compound S y s t e m T h r e e b a s i c c o n c e p t s a r e u s e d by H e l s a b e c k d e c i s i o n system.  t o i d e n t i f y a compound  The number and a u t o n o m y o f d e c i s i o n m a k i n g u n i t s o r  s u b s y s t e m s i n t h e s y s t e m i s t h e s y s t e m ' s c e n t r i c i t y ( w h i c h may f e d e r a t e d t o c o r p o r a t e ) ; t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f u n i t members who  range  are  from  involved  i n d e c i s i o n m a k i n g by t h a t u n i t i s t h e a m o u n t o f p a r t i c i p a t i o n ( w h i c h r a n g e f r o m mass d e m o c r a t i c  to monarchic);  may  and, the v a r i a t i o n i n d e c i s i o n  making across the o r g a n i z a t i o n f o r v a r i o u s kinds o f d e c i s i o n s i s the d e c i s i o n structure variance (Helsabeck,  1973:53).  Four types  of  decisions are i d e n t i f i e d ( a u t h o r i t y a l l o c a t i o n , resource a l l o c a t i o n , r e s o u r c e a c q u i s i t i o n and p r o d u c t i o n ) and two l e v e l s o f d e c i s i o n m a k i n g : s y s t e m and s u b s y s t e m .  F i n a l l y , Helsabeck  organizational effectiveness: goal a t t a i n m e n t ,  proposes three c r i t e r i a  of  r e s o u r c e a c q u i s i t i o n , goal f o r m a t i o n  and m e m b e r s h i p s a t i s f a c t i o n .  U s i n g c e n t r i c i t y and p a r t i c i p a t i o n as o r t h o g o n a l  coordinates,  and  41 H e l s a b e c k i l l u s t r a t e s how d i f f e r e n t t y p e s o f d e c i s i o n m a k i n g c o u l d be u s e d a s an o r g a n i z a t i o n o r s u b u n i t t r e a t s d i f f e r e n t k i n d s o f d e c i s i o n s . H e l s a b e c k has a p p l i e d t h e s e c o n c e p t s  to c o l l e g e s and u n i v e r s i t i e s and  proposes a s e t o f r e l a t i o n s h i p s to demonstrate the i n t e r r e l a t e d i n f l u e n c e s o f environment, d e c i s i o n type and the c r i t e r i a o f organizational  effectiveness.  Organized  Anarchy  Cohen a n d M a r c h ( 1 9 7 4 ) s t u d i e d 42 u n i v e r s i t i e s a n d c o l l e g e s a n d concluded  t h a t they were o r g a n i z e d  unclear technologies  anarchies  with problematic  goals,  and f l u i d p a r t i c i p a t i o n . They w r o t e :  . . . the American c o l l e g e o r u n i v e r s i t y i s a protot y p i c o r g a n i z e d a n a r c h y . I t d o e s n o t know w h a t i t is doing. I t s g o a l s a r e e i t h e r vague o r i n d i s p u t e . Its technology i s f a m i l i a r but not understood. I t s major p a r t i c i p a n t s wander i n and o u t o f t h e o r g a n i z a t i o n . T h e s e f a c t o r s do n o t make t h e u n i v e r s i t y a bad o r g a n i z a t i o n o r a d i s o r g a n i z e d o n e ; b u t t h e y do make i t a p r o b l e m t o d e s c r i b e , u n d e r s t a n d a n d l e a d . (1974:3) To d e s c r i b e t h e d e c i s i o n m a k i n g p r o c e s s  i n u n i v e r s i t i e s and  c o l l e g e s , Cohen a n d M a r c h p r o p o s e d t h e " g a r b a g e c a n " m o d e l o f c h o i c e . T h a t model i s s u m m a r i z e d i n t h e s e  terms:  . . . p r o b l e m s , s o l u t i o n s , a n d p a r t i c i p a n t s move from one c h o i c e o p p o r t u n i t y t o a n o t h e r i n s u c h a way t h a t t h e n a t u r e o f c h o i c e , t h e t i m e i t t a k e s , and t h e p r o b l e m s i t s o l v e s a l l d e p e n d on a r e l a t i v e l y complicated intermeshing o f the mix o f c h o i c e s a v a i l a b l e a t any one time, t h e mix o f p r o b l e m s t h a t have a c c e s s t o t h e o r g a n i z a t i o n , the mix o f s o l u t i o n s l o o k i n g f o r p r o b l e m s , a n d t h e o u t s i d e demands on d e c i s i o n m a k e r s . (Cohen and March, 1974:90)  42 Rational  Analysis  Quade ( 1 9 7 5 ) i d e n t i f i e s t h e f i v e b a s i c f a c t o r s f o r r a t i o n a l a n a l y s i s o f a d e c i s i o n t o be made:  (1) the o b j e c t i v e s , (2) the a l t e r n a -  t i v e s , c o u r s e s o f a c t i o n by w h i c h a d e c i s i o n m a k e r h o p e s t o  accomplish  the o b j e c t i v e s , (3) the i m p a c t s o r c o n s e q u e n c e s o f those a c t i o n s , (4) c r i t e r i a by w h i c h t o r a n k t h e a l t e r n a t i v e s by o r d e r o f d e s i r a b i l i t y ,  the and  (5) the model o r models t h a t d e s c r i b e the c o n s e q u e n c e s t h a t f l o w from a given a l t e r n a t i v e (1975:46-47).  Incorporating  t h o s e f i v e f a c t o r s , Quade  d i a g r a m s t h e p r o c e s s o f r a t i o n a l a n a l y s i s as h a v i n g f i v e formulation, (see F i g u r e  search, comparision,  i n t e r p r e t a t i o n and  steps:  verification  2).  Cybernetics Steinbruner  f i n d s f a u l t with the a n a l y t i c paradigm o f i n d i v i d u a l  d e c i s i o n m a k i n g and a r g u e s t h a t a c y b e r n e t i c p a r a d i g m i s b o t h more appropriate  and m o r e a c c u r a t e  (1974).  Basically, Steinbruner's  paradigm  d e p e n d s on p r e - p r o g r a m m e d d e c i s i o n r u l e s b a s e d l a r g e l y on p a s t  experience.  These r u l e s are a p p l i e d i n a " h i g h l y s t r u c t u r e d , a p p r o p r i a t e l y  arranged  e n v i r o n m e n t " (1974:1 3 ) .  Real d e c i s i o n p r o b l e m s a r e m o s t l y  ( i . e . m u l t i p l e o b j e c t i v e s , possess Steinbruner  complex  uncertainty, diffuse authority)  assumes t h a t c o g n i t i v e processes  b a s e d on l e a r n i n g  and  structure  r e a l i t y s u f f i c i e n t l y f o r e a c h i n d i v i d u a l t o a l l o w h i s p a r a d i g m t o be a reasonable  d e s c r i p t o r and f o r p r o b a b l i s t i c j u d g m e n t s t o be made.  The p r e - p r o g r a m m e d d e c i s i o n r u l e s m i n i m i z e t h e e f f e c t s o f u n c e r t a i n t y by o n l y i n c o r p o r a t i n g r e s p o n s e t o c r i t i c a l v a r i a b l e s , l e s s o f whatever else i s happening; cybernetic " d e c i s i o n screen out information programmed to a c c e p t "  processes  which the e s t a b l i s h e d s e t o f responses are (Steinbruner,  1974:67).  regard-  The p o l i t i c a l  not  incremental  43 FIGURE 2 A RATIONAL P O L I C Y A N A L Y S I S PARADIGM  CONCLUSIONS Recommendations  (Quade, 1975:52)  ISSUE o r PROBLEM > Symptoms  FORMULATION  INTERPRETATION VERIFICATION  ASSUMPTIONS OBJECTIVES Measures o f Effectiveness  FEEDBACK  CRITERIA ITERATION SEARCH  COMPARISON  IMPACTS < Benefits Costs Spil lovers  ALTERNATIVES MODELS  44 m o d e l d e s c r i b e d by L i n d b l o m ( 1 9 6 5 ) i s a s p e c i a l c a s e o f t h e  cybernetic  model i n t h a t a few c r i t i c a l v a r i a b l e s w i l l be m o n i t o r e d and a worthy d e v i a t i o n from a learned l e v e l o f preference feedback process which r e s u l t s i n a small change.  note-  will trigger a Note, however, t h a t  a fundamental change i s a l s o p o s s i b l e under the c y b e r n e t i c m o d e l , hence, i n c r e m e n t a l i s m i s a more l i m i t e d n o t i o n . A GENERAL DECISION PARADIGM Several conceptual s p e c i f i c cases  frameworks have been a p p l i e d t o t h e a n a l y s i s o f  ( e . g . A l l i s o n ; 1971;  Peterson,  1976;  K e n t , 1 975) and  show  that each c o n c e p t u a l i z a t i o n o f d e c i s i o n making d i r e c t s the a n a l y s t d i f f e r e n t s o u r c e s and t y p e s o f e v i d e n c e .  to  However, the danger o f drawing  i n f e r e n c e s b a s e d on o n l y one v i e w i s n o t o v e r c o m e by u s i n g a number o f v i e w s ; r a t h e r , one d e v e l o p s  three or four d e s c r i p t i o n s each of which  proposes r e l a t i o n s h i p s about which other treatments 1977).  are s i l e n t  (Murphy,  The p r o b l e m , t h e r e f o r e , i s t o use a c o m p r e h e n s i v e model w h i c h  i s able to r e l a t e the v a r i o u s c o n c e p t u a l i z a t i o n s  to a l a r g e r framework.  Weathersby a s s e r t s that nine elements or a t t r i b u t e s describe individual's decision context;  t h a t those elements are defined  an  for  p a r t i c u l a r d e c i s i o n s i t u a t i o n s f o r each i n d i v i d u a l ; and, t h a t w h i l e o f the elements are o b s e r v a b l e  i n a given s i t u a t i o n , they provide  "consistent point of departure  to u n d e r s t a n d c u r r e n t d e c i s i o n s "  a (1975:34).  The n i n e e l e m e n t s W e a t h e r s b y p r o p o s e s come f r o m a s y n t h e s i s the e i g h t c o n c e p t u a l i z a t i o n s  r e v i e w e d a b o v e and c o m p r i s e :  of  three types  v a r i a b l e s , f o u r l i n k i n g s t r u c t u r e s , t h e p l a n n i n g h o r i z o n and t h e of uncertainty.  few  of  nature  Weathersby states that "for a p a r t i c u l a r i n d i v i d u a l i n a  s p e c i f i c d e c i s i o n c o n t e x t we can  define:  Three kinds o f v a r i a b l e s : - control v a r i a b l e s (or d e c i s i o n v a r i a b l e s ) are those v a r i a b l e s w h i c h can be s p e c i f i e d , d e t e r m i n e d -l i t e r a l l y c o n t r o l l e d -- a t t h i s p o i n t i n t i m e [designated u ( t ) ] ; - exogenous v a r i a b l e s are those v a r i a b l e s t h a t cannot be c o n t r o l l e d o r i n f l u e n c e d by t h i s i n d i v i d u a l i n t h i s c o n t e x t and a t t h i s t i m e [ d e s i g n a t e d z ( t ) ] ; and - s t a t e v a r i a b l e s a r e t h o s e v a r i a b l e s t h a t can be i n f l u e n c e d t h o u g h n o t c o n t r o l l e d by t h i s i n d i v i d u a l [designated x ( t ) ] . Four l i n k i n g s t r u c t u r e s : - o b s e r v i n g s y s t e m , how t h e i n d i v i d u a l s e e k s t o l e a r n a b o u t t h e c o n t e x t o f t h e d e c i s i o n , i n f o r m a t i o n on t h e c u r r e n t s t a t e and e x o g e n o u s v a r i a b l e s , and t h e b a s i s f o r information for other l i n k i n g systems [designated y(t) = h(x,u,z,t)]; - v a l u e system, the r e l a t i v e v a l u e to t h i s i n d i v i d u a l i n a c h i e v i n g v a r i o u s c u r r e n t and f u t u r e s t a t e s [designated v(x,u,z,t)]; - causal r e l a t i o n s h i p s , the assumed or e s t i m a t e d cause and e f f e c t r e l a t i o n s h i p s b e t w e e n a c t i o n and c o n s e - r quence, between c u r r e n t d e c i s i o n o r c o n t r o l v a r i a b l e s and f u t u r e s t a t e v a r i a b l e s [ d e s i g n a t e d x ( t + l ) = f ( x , u , z , t , ) ] ; and - c o n s t r a i n t s , those a c t u a l l y binding c o n s t r a i n t s or i d e n t i t i e s that i n t e r r e l a t e a l l three v a r i a b l e s , such as b u d g e t o r s p a c e c o n s t r a i n t s [ d e s i g n a t e d C ( x , u , z , t ) ] . Two  other  considerations:  - t i m e h o r i z o n , how f a r i n t h e f u t u r e one c o n s i d e r s t h e e f f e c t s o f a c u r r e n t d e c i s i o n ( d e s i g n a t e d T ) ; and, - uncertainty s t r u c t u r e , which r e l a t i o n s h i p , observation, i n f e r e n c e s o r s t r u c t u r e s a r e u n c e r t a i n and w h a t i s t h e nature of that uncertainty [designated p(x,u,z,t,h,V,f,C)]. i.e.  The c l a s s i c d e c i s i o n and c o n t r o l t h e o r e t i c f o r m u l a t i o n o f an i n d i v i d u a l ' s d e c i s i o n p r o b l e m ( W e a t h e r s b y , 1970)  max u(t)  vCy.t) t=t  i s to:  p(x,u,z,t,h,V,f,C)dp  Q  h(x,u,z,t)  s u b j e c t to x(t+l) C(x,u,z,t) x(t ) 0  f(x,u,z,t) 0  t =  (t ,T) 0  known. II (Weathersby, 1975:35-36)  U n d e r W e a t h e r s b y ' s c o n c e p t i o n , a d e c i s i o n i s t r e a t e d as an  optimal  outcome which i s a f u n c t i o n o f the v a l u e s , o b s e r v i n g system, assumptions about c a u s a l r e l a t i o n s h i p s , p e r c e i v e d c o n s t r a i n t s , time horizon  and  a s s u m p t i o n s a b o u t u n c e r t a i n t y t h a t an i n d i v i d u a l h o l d s a t a g i v e n On d e c i s i o n m a k i n g i n g r o u p s ,  time.  Weathersby s t a t e s :  The t r a n s i t i o n t o g r o u p d e c i s i o n m a k i n g a l l o c a t i n g g r o u p r e s o u r c e s c a n be a n a l y z e d i n a t l e a s t two w a y s : i n d i v i d u a l s a g r e e t o be b o u n d i n a g r o u p d e c i s i o n a c c o r d i n g t o some d e c i s i o n r u l e ( s u c h as v o t i n g ) ; o r i n d i v i d u a l s p e r c e i v e p a r t i c i p a t i o n to have c u r r e n t and/or p o t e n t i a l f u t u r e v a l u e and, t h e r e f o r e , expand t h e i r perception o f state v a r i a b l e s to include the n a t u r e , p r o c e s s and v i t a l i t y o f t h e g r o u p . (1 9 7 5 : 3 7 ) It i s important  t o n o t e t h a t t h e n i n e p a r t mode d e v e l o p e d  by  Weathersby does not c o n s i d e r d e c i s i o n making between o r g a n i z a t i o n s , hence the economic market i s not i n c l u d e d w i t h i n i t . Moreover, Weathersby c o n t e n d s t h a t h i s model i s s u p e r i o r t o e a r l i e r a n a l y s i s o f g r o u p d e c i s i o n r u l e s , n o t a b l y t h o s e by K e n n e t h A r r o w ( 1 9 6 7 ) . t h i s c l a i m are t h a t the Arrow analyses  The g r o u n d s f o r  "do n o t p r o v i d e a b a s i s f o r  d e s c r i b i n g i n d i v i d u a l c h o i c e to p a r t i c i p a t e in o r , once p a r t i c i p a t i n g , to  47 c o n t r i b u t e towards d e c i s i o n s i n a group r e s p o n s i b l e f o r a l l o c a t i n g group r e s o u r c e s " (Weathersby,  1975:37).  The importance o f i n c o r p o r a t i n g t h e d e c i s i o n t o j o i n a group i s evident i n the impracticality o f unlimited individual decision  making.  Some o f t h e f a c t o r s c o n s t r a i n i n g t h e c h o i c e s made b y a n i n d i v i d u a l include:  t h e need f o r s p e c i a l i z a t i o n , and a t t e n d a n t i n t e r d e p e n d e n c e s ;  the e x i s t e n c e o f p u b l i c goods, which a r e a v a i l a b l e t o everyone, whether o r n o t t h e y pay f o r them; t h e p r e s e n c e o f e x t e r n a l i t i e s o r t h e e f f e c t s o f o n e ' s d e c i s i o n s o n o t h e r s ( s p i l l o v e r e f f e c t s ) ; t h e n o t i o n o f common p r o p e r t y r e s o u r c e s , o r r e s o u r c e s t h a t e n t a i l a c c e s s w h i c h c a n n o t be e f f e c t i v e l y d e n i e d t o a n i n d i v i d u a l , y e t t h e i r u s e by an i n d i v i d u a l i s a s e p a r a b l e use [ s e e , f o r example:  O l s e n (1965), Ostrom (1973),  Schmidtlein (1974)]. Weathersby allows those i n d i v i d u a l c h o i c e s t o f i t w i t h i n t h e v a r i a b l e s o f h i s model by e x p a n d i n g i n d i v i d u a l c o n t r o l v a r i a b l e s " t o include t h e i r behavior i n t h e group," expanding i n d i v i d u a l s t a t e v a r i a b l e s "to i n c l u d e t h e i r e f f e c t i v e n e s s i n m o t i v a t i n g group b e h a v i o r o r c r e a t i n g a more v i a b l e g r o u p , " e x p a n d i n g i n d i v i d u a l c a u s a l a s s u m p t i o n s " t o i n c l u d e the l i k e l y consequences o f d i f f e r e n t personal b e h a v i o r , " and expanding the i n d i v i d u a l ' s " n o t i o n o f u n c e r t a i n t y t o include t h e responses ( s t r a t e g i e s , gaming) o f o t h e r group p a r t i c i p a n t s " (Weathersby,  1975:37).  R e l a t i o n s h i p s Between General Paradigm and O t h e r Paradigms T h e p a r a d i g m s o u t l i n e d i n t h e e a r l i e r p a r t o f t h i s c h a p t e r e a c h may be s e e n t o e m p h a s i z e o n e o r m o r e o f t h e e l e m e n t s o f t h e g e n e r a l d e c i s i o n paradigm proposed by Weathersby.  Weathersby suggests i n t e r p r e t a t i o n s o f  each as s p e c i a l cases o f t h e g e n e r a l paradigm.  48  A bureaucracy  i s based on formal  delegations o f a u t h o r i t y which  create a hierarchy o f decision variables (that which i s c o n t r o l l a b l e a t one l e v e l i s e x o g e n o u s o r a c o n s t r a i n t a t a s u b o r d i n a t e  level).  Bureau-  c r a c i e s a t t e m p t t o s t r u c t u r e v a l u e f u n c t i o n s by i m p o s i n g rank s t r u c t u r e s and s t a t i n g e x p l i c i t c r i t e r i a f o r p r o m o t i o n a n d r e w a r d . bureaucracies  Thereby,  r e d u c e some u n c e r t a i n t i e s ( e . g . p r o v i d e t e n u r e a s a f o r m o f  j o b s e c u r i t y ) a n d p r o v i d e s u p e r i o r members o f t h e b u r e a u c r a c y substantial personal resources  with  leverage through t h e i r control o f extensive  f o r subordinate  i n d i v i d u a l s and groups.  Information  i s a medium  o f exchange i n t h e power s t r u c t u r e and i s a c q u i r e d and d i s t r i b u t e d a c c o r d ing to that structure.  Since o n l y t h e o r g a n i z a t i o n has r e s p o n s i b i l i t y f o r  o u t c o m e s , i n t e r n a l d e c i s i o n s a r e made a l m o s t e n t i r e l y o n t h e b a s i s o f i n p u t s , causal r e l a t i o n s h i p s a r e r a r e l y t e s t e d , and novel  techniques a r e  viewed s u s p i c i o u s l y because t h e i r costs a r e only i n f r e q u e n t l y  balanced  by i m p r o v e m e n t s i n e f f e c t i v e n e s s o f t h e o r g a n i z a t i o n w h i c h t h e m s e l v e s go u n r e w a r d e d . A c o l l e g i u m has t h e f e a t u r e o f a group d e c i s i o n process. be i n f e r r e d t h a t p a r t i c i p a t i n g i n t h e g r o u p p r o v i d e s  greater benefits to  the i n d i v i d u a l i f an e s s e n t i a l r o l e i n t h e group i s p e r c e i v e d . collegium, authority i s not delegated  In a  f o r m a l l y , t h e r e f o r e no o n e h a s  control over the resources o f t h e group.  I f b e l i e f s about causal r e l a -  t i o n s h i p s a r e weak, o r i f i n d i v i d u a l p e r c e p t i o n s the c o l l e g i u m , a n o n - h i e r a r c h i c a l  I t may  d i f f e r from those o f  p e e r s t r u c t u r e may b e f o r m e d t o a v o i d  major s h o r t f a l l s i n the s a t i s f a c t i o n o f individual preferences  and t o  i n s u r e maximum p a r t i c i p a t i o n o f t h e i n d i v i d u a l i n t h e g r o u p .  In t h i s  arrangement, a collegium r e f l e c t s a perceived dissonance than a s e t o f shared values.  By p r o v i d i n g f o r e q u a l  o f values  rather  participation, the  49 danger o f m i s r e p r e s e n t a t i o n i s m i n i m i z e d ; however, u n c e r t a i n t y and ambiguity i n c r e a s e with the degree o f c o l l e g i a l i t y . P o l i t i c a l r a t i o n a l i t y i s d i s t i n g u i s h e d by t h e p r e e m i n e n c e o f c o a l i t i o n s and i n t e r e s t group p o l i t i c s .  T h i s means t h a t t h e i n d i v i d u a l  j o i n s a g r o u p b e c a u s e he o r s h e p e r c e i v e s i t t o be i n h i s o r h e r b e s t i n t e r e s t t o do s o .  The p o l i t i c a l p r o c e s s o c c u r s i n the absence o f  agreed-upon d e c i s i o n r u l e s .  However, the p o l i t i c a l p r o c e s s i n v o l v e s  the  p l a y i n g o f r o l e s by i n d i v i d u a l s a n d t h e p o l i t i c a l  not  p r o v i d e f o r a s s e s s m e n t o f how e a c h i n d i v i d u a l c h o o s e s t h o s e r o l e s  (e.g.  i n c r e m e n t a l i s t s do  w h i c h f a c t i o n t o c r e a t e o r j o i n , how s t r o n g a c o m m i t m e n t t o m a k e ) .  The d e c i s i o n t o j o i n i n t h e t a c t i c s o f p o l i t i c a l  b a r g a i n i n g i s the process  t h a t the general paradigm addresses. An e x t e r n a l v i e w o f i n d i v i d u a l c h o i c e i s p r o v i d e d t h r o u g h t h e o p e n system approach.  With the assumption that each i n d i v i d u a l p e r c e i v e s a  m e c h a n i c a l l y r e s p o n d i n g s y s t e m i n t h e r e s t o f t h e o r g a n i z a t i o n , Thompson e m p h a s i z e s t h r e e e l e m e n t s o f t h e g e n e r a l p a r a d i g m by h i g h l i g h t i n g a s s u m e d c a u s a l r e l a t i o n s h i p s , the e f f e c t s o f u n c e r t a i n t y and comparison o f v a l u e s and outcomes. The compound s y s t e m v i e w c o n s i d e r s o n l y two a s p e c t s o f t h e g e n e r a l paradigm.  The c o n c e p t o f c e n t r i c i t y a s s e s s e s t h e f o r m a l d e l e g a t i o n o f  c o n t r o l v a r i a b l e s and the a t t e n d e n t degree o f c e n t r a l i z a t i o n o f d e c i s i o n making.  The a m o u n t o f p a r t i c i p a t i o n a d d r e s s e s t h e d e g r e e o f i n d i v i d u a l  p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n d e c i s i o n m a k i n g by t h e g r o u p .  A c c o r d i n g to Helsabeck  ( 1 9 7 3 ) , t h e s e two c o n c e p t s d e s c r i b e v a r i a t i o n w i t h t h e t y p e a n d s u b s t a n c e of a decision.  H o w e v e r , i n W e a t h e r s b y ' s t e r m s , t h e y a d d r e s s o n l y one  e l e m e n t o f d e c i s i o n m a k i n g by t h e i n d i v i d u a l , a n d a summary c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f the r o l e s o f a l l i n d i v i d u a l s i n group c h o i c e .  The o r g a n i z e d  a n a r c h y c o n c e p t makes f o u r a s s e r t i o n s .  First,  s t r u c t u r a l u n c e r t a i n t y i s so g r e a t t h a t i n d i v i d u a l s c a n n o t a c t on o r assumed c a u s a l r e l a t i o n s h i p s . control variables.  S e c o n d , no one has a n y  T h i r d , rewards are unclear.  systems are n e i t h e r c l e a r nor e f f e c t i v e .  values  organizational  Fourth, formal  authority  Cohen and M a r c h recommend a  s e r i e s o f i n d i v i d u a l decisions about i n d i v i d u a l behavior  in a university  w h i c h t h e y c o n t e n d w i l l m a x i m i z e an i n d i v i d u a l ' s p o w e r ( 1 9 7 4 ) , g i v e n o r g a n i z a t i o n a l c o n t r o l v a r i a b l e s and no o b v i o u s group choice.  way  no  to p a r t i c i p a t e i n  T h e y do n o t s t a t e t h e i r a s s u m e d c a u s a l  relationships,  c o n s t r a i n t s o r v a l u e s ; h o w e v e r , t h e y do a s s u m e t h a t t h e i n t e l l i g e n c e o r observing  system w i l l generate misleading  administrative  i n f o r m a t i o n and a d v i s e  against  "learning."  The c l a s s i c a l a n a l y t i c a l m o d e l i s g e n e r a l l y c o n s i s t e n t w i t h general  paradigm prepared  by W e a t h e r s b y , w i t h one e x c e p t i o n :  the  the  a n a l y t i c a l m o d e l i s i n a p p r o p r i a t e as a p a r a d i g m f o r g r o u p d e c i s i o n m a k i n g . The f a i l u r e t o f i n d e v i d e n c e  to support  t h e a n a l y t i c a l model may  be  a t t r i b u t e d t o i t s a p p l i c a t i o n t o g r o u p d e c i s i o n s , many o f w h i c h h a v e b e e n political  (e.g. A l l i s o n ,  1971).  The c y b e r n e t i c p a r a d i g m e m p h a s i z e s t h e d e c i s i o n f u n c t i o n a l m o s t exclusively.  Steinbruner  ( 1 9 7 4 ) a r g u e s t h a t t h e number o f c a l c u l a t i o n s  and t h e s t r u c t u r a l u n c e r t a i n t y o f t h e a n a l y t i c a l m o d e l p r e c l u d e and t h a t , as an a l t e r n a t i v e , j u d g m e n t and e x p e r i e n c e  l e a d to  pre-  p r o g r a m m e d d e c i s i o n r u l e s as t h e y a r e a p p l i e d t o r e a l i t y t h r o u g h tive processes  which are l i m i t e d .  i t s use  cogni-  Indeed, the presence o f d e c i s i o n r u l e s  t h a t appear pre-programmed i s o b s e r v e d ; however, from those  observations  i t i s n o t p o s s i b l e t o d e t e r m i n e w h e t h e r t h e y h a v e b e e n p r o d u c e d by a n a l y s i s o r by c o g n i t i v e p r o c e s s e s .  The c y b e r n e t i c p a r a d i g m i s n a r r o w e r  than the general intergroup  paradigm i n that i t provides  f o r i n t e r - i n d i v i d u a l and  i n t e r a c t i o n o n l y t h r o u g h v a r i a b l e s w h i c h a r e e x o g e n o u s t o an  i n d i v i d u a l , w h e r e a s a w i d e r v a r i e t y o f ways t o a f f e c t i n d i v i d u a l d e c i s i o n in a l l i t s elements i s observed. In summary, t h e g e n e r a l  p a r a d i g m may  be s e e n t o e n c o m p a s s t h e  v a r i e t y o f d e c i s i o n models which e x i s t s i n the l i t e r a t u r e .  It  a framework f o r t h e i r c o m p a r i s o n and, p o s s i b l y , i n t e g r a t i o n . .  provides As a  t a x o n o m i c d e s c r i p t i o n o f t h e e l e m e n t s o f an i n d i v i d u a l d e c i s i o n , general  the  d e c i s i o n paradigm i s d e s c r i p t i v e o f the s t r u c t u r e o f a d e c i s i o n .  H o w e v e r , i t i s s i l e n t on t h e c o n t e n t o f t h e d e c i s i o n , i t s o r g a n i z a t i o n a l s e t t i n g or t r a i t s o f the i n d i v i d u a l . d i e n t s f o r moving from conceptual theoretic statement.  As s u c h , i t i d e n t i f i e s t h e  models o f d e c i s i o n making to a  However, i t does n o t p r o v i d e the  required f o r a f u l l theory.  generalizations  The s t r u c t u r a l f o c u s d o e s i d e n t i f y t h e  p r e d i c a t e s upon w h i c h a t h e o r y c o u l d be b u i l t , and i n so d o i n g a b a s i s f o r c o m p a r i s o n between r e s e a r c h a b o u t d e c i d i n g and intended  to inform  provides  research  decision.  A P P L Y I N G THE  GENERAL D E C I S I O N PARADIGM  I t has b e e n p r o p o s e d t h a t c o n c e p t u a l and d e c i s i o n i s i m p o r t a n t .  congruence between a n a l y s i s  In p a r t i c u l a r , c l o s e c o n g r u e n c e may  b u t e t o g r e a t e r i n f l u e n c e on t h e d e c i s i o n by t h e a n a l y s i s .  contri^  I t has  b e e n p r o p o s e d t h a t a c o n c e p t u a l l y b r o a d model o f t h e s t r u c t u r e d e c i s i o n may  ingre-  also  of  p r o v i d e a common s e t o f v a r i a b l e s i n t e r m s o f w h i c h  a n a l y t i c and d e c i s i o n p r o c e s s m o d e l s can b o t h be a n a l y z e d  and,  therefore,  compared or t e s t e d f o r congruence. Using the general  d e c i s i o n paradigm, i n the case o f p e r f e c t  c o n g r u e n c e b e t w e e n a n a l y s i s and d e c i s i o n , t h e d e s i g n o f r e s e a r c h  in  52 a i d o f d e c i s i o n w o u l d be i d e n t i c a l w i t h t h e d e c i s i o n m a k i n g p r o c e s s terms o f t h e i r s t r u c t u r a l v a r i a b l e s , l i n k i n g s t r u c t u r e s , time and t r e a t m e n t  of uncertainty.  in  horizon  This would provide a one-to-one c o r r e s -  p o n d e n c e b e t w e e n t h e a n a l y s i s and t h e t e r m s t h a t a r e i m p o r t a n t  to  the  d e c i s i o n maker. Therefore,  the design o f r e s e a r c h i n a i d o f d e c i s i o n , i . e .  a n a l y t i c a l m o d e l s , may decision paradigm.  be a n a l y z e d  u s i n g the nine elements o f the  T h a t a n a l y s i s m u s t be a s t a t i c o n e ,  i d e n t i f y i n g the  c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f the taxonomy t h a t are embodied i n those ( s e e C h a p t e r 4). to analyze  S i m i l a r l y , the general  designs  d e c i s i o n p a r a d i g m may  the s t r u c t u r e o f d e c i s i o n processes  general  be u s e d  i n a l t e r n a t i v e models o f  d e c i d i n g i n u n i v e r s i t i e s w h i c h h a v e b e e n more f u l l y d e v e l o p e d t h a n b r i e f sketches Operational  in this  the  chapter.  Definitions  The g e n e r a l d e c i s i o n p a r a d i g m e m p h a s i z e s t h e r o l e o f t h e i n d i v i d u a l in deciding.  The phenomenon o f g r o u p d e c i s i o n m a k i n g i s s u b s u m e d t h r o u g h  c o n s i d e r i n g an i n d i v i d u a l ' s m e m b e r s h i p and p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n a g r o u p as part of a set of individual decisions.  The d e f i n i t i o n s p r o p o s e d  Weathersby f o r the n i n e elements i n the general tion before  by  paradigm require  b e i n g a p p l i e d t o m o d e l s o f a n a l y s i s and  elabora-  research.  C o n t r o l v a r i a b l e s . . C o n t r o l v a r i a b l e s were d e f i n e d as those  which  can be s p e c i f i e d o r d e t e r m i n e d by t h e d e c i s i o n m a k e r a t t h i s p o i n t i n time, under these c o n d i t i o n s .  Therefore  o p t i o n s open to the d e c i s i o n maker.  t h e y may  be s e e n as d e f i n i n g  the  In an a n a l y t i c a l m o d e l t h e y w o u l d be  t h o s e v a r i a b l e s w h i c h a r e m a n i p u l a t e d i n t h e model t o s i m u l a t e  the  e f f e c t s o f d i f f e r e n t a l t e r n a t i v e s o r to achieve a p a r t i c u l a r outcome.  State v a r i a b l e s .  S t a t e v a r i a b l e s have been d e f i n e d as those  can be i n f l u e n c e d b u t n o t c o n t r o l l e d by t h e d e c i s i o n m a k e r .  which  T h e y may  be i n t e r p r e t e d a s t h o s e v a r i a b l e s w h i c h d e s c r i b e t h e o u t c o m e s o f a d e c i s i o n , as d i s t i n c t from t h e c o n t r o l v a r i a b l e s which a r e m a n i p u l a t e d directly.  The l i n k a g e b e t w e e n c o n t r o l a n d s t a t e v a r i a b l e s i s t h r o u g h  the causal r e l a t i o n s h i p s assumed o r e s t i m a t e d Exogenous v a r i a b l e s .  t o be i n o p e r a t i o n .  Exogenous v a r i a b l e s a r e d e f i n e d simply as  t h o s e w h i c h c a n n o t be c l a s s i f i e d a s c o n t r o l o r s t a t e v a r i a b l e s . Observing  systems.  information concerning form  Observing  s y s t e m s a r e t h e means by w h i c h  the three kinds o f v a r i a b l e s a r e c o l l e c t e d , and  the basis o f information  f o r other linking structures.  i n c l u d e the bases o f i n f o r m a t i o n  These w i l l  and t h e methods o f i n q u i r y used t o  gather i t . Value system.  The value system l i n k s the i n d i v i d u a l to the three  k i n d s o f v a r i a b l e s by s t a t i n g t h e r e l a t i v e v a l u e t o h i m t h a t i s a s s o c i a t e d with the c u r r e n t status o f each and with a c h i e v i n g a l t e r n a t i v e f u t u r e conditions o f each. Causal  relationships.  v a r i a b l e s across time.  Causal  r e l a t i o n s h i p s l i n k c o n t r o l and s t a t e  They p r o v i d e t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p between  c o n t r o l and f u t u r e outcomes.  present  T h e y may be a f u n c t i o n o f e x o g e n o u s v a r i a b l e s  t o t h e e x t e n t t h a t a f o r m o f c a u s a l r e l a t i o n s h i p ;may be d e t e r m i n e d by f a c t o r s n o t o p e n t o c o n t r o l o r i n f l u e n c e by t h e d e c i s i o n m a k e r . Constraints.  C o n s t r a i n t s a r e those r e l a t i o n s h i p s which l i m i t the  t o t a l v a r i a n c e among t h e t h r e e k i n d s o f v a r i a b l e s , a n d i n p a r t i c u l a r between c o n t r o l and s t a t e v a r i a b l e s .  F o r example, t h e surruof " i n d i c a t o r s  54 on c o n t r o l a n d s t a t e v a r i a b l e s may n o t e x c e e d a c e r t a i n c o n s t r a i n i n g 1imtt. Time h o r i z o n .  The t i m e h o r i z o n i n a d e c i s i o n i s t h e d i s t a n c e  the f u t u r e t h a t s t a t e v a r i a b l e s a r e monitored as a r e s u l t o f control variables i n a current  into  manipulating  decision.  Uncertainty structure.  The u n c e r t a i n t y s t r u c t u r e i d e n t i f i e s  those  elements i n the d e c i s i o n problem which a r e u n c e r t a i n , and the degree o f those u n c e r t a i n t i e s .  Dror (1970) p r o v i d e s a d i s t i n c t i o n between  instances with "primary"  u n c e r t a i n t y when v i r t u a l l y n o t h i n g  those  i s known  a b o u t p o s s i b l e o u t c o m e s , i . e . t o t a l s u r p r i s e p r e d o m i n a t e s , and'-those with "secondary" u n c e r t a i n t y where, although  t h e d i m e n s i o n s o f an o u t -  come a r e known, t h e p r o b a b i l i t y d i s t r i b u t i o n s , i . e . r e l a t i v e l i k e l i h o o d o f s p e c i f i c outcomes, are n o t . Other  Considerations It i s important  to note that a control theory s o l u t i o n to the  problem associated with a d e c i s i o n provides  f o r determining  what i n p u t s  or c o n t r o l v a r i a b l e s e t t i n g s a r e r e q u i r e d t o achieve a s p e c i f i e d and p r e f e r r e d o u t c o m e among s t a t e v a r i a b l e s .  Therefore  Weathersby's  formula-  t i o n o f t h e i n d i v i d u a l d e c i s i o n problem ( p . 46) assumes a c o n t r o l o f v a r i a b l e s towards a s p e c i f i c  objective.  In c o n t r a s t , t h e c o n t r o l v a r i a b l e s may be m a n i p u l a t e d s i m p l y t o d e t e r m i n e what outcomes would accrue as a r e s u l t o f those In t h a t mode, t h e e x e r c i s e m e r e l y s i m u l a t e s  manipulations.  r a t h e r than o p t i m i z e s t h e  outcomes.  In t h e s i m u l a t i o n mode, t h e p r e s e n c e o f a n o b j e c t i v e i s n o t  assumed.  The p u r p o s e o f t h e e x e r c i s e may be t o d i s c o v e r t h e f o r e c a s t e d  outcome o f c u r r e n t p r a c t i c e , o r t o i l l u s t r a t e the responsiveness  of  control  variables. SUMMARY T h i s c h a p t e r has r e v i e w e d t h e p r o b l e m o f m o d e l b t a s i n t h e  c o n d u c t o f r e s e a r c h and h i g h l i g h t e d t h e p r o b l e m o f p r o d u c i n g a n a l y s i s which are a r t i f a c t s o f the r e s e a r c h d e s i g n . v a r i o u s models were sketched  results of  In p a r t i c u l a r ,  a s t h e y e a c h a t t e m p t t o p r e s e n t a model  o f d e c i s i o n making. The c o m p e t i n g v i e w s p r o v i d e d  by t h e e i g h t m o d e l s n o t e d  i n the  o p e n i n g s e c t i o n s w e r e shown t o p r o v i d e one o r a n o t h e r s e t s o f c o n c l u s i o n s a n d , t h e r e f o r e , t o c o n t r i b u t e t o m o d e l b i a s i f o n l y one a n o t h e r v i e w was  taken.  A general  d e c i s i o n p a r a d i g m was  or  s u m m a r i z e d as  a l a r g e r f r a m e w o r k w i t h i n w h i c h t h e p a r t i c u l a r m o d e l s w e r e shown t o special cases. overarching  The g e n e r a l  conception  d e c i s i o n paradigm provides, therefore,  with which i t i s proposed to analyze  be an  both  a n a l y t i c a l models and d e c i s i o n p r o c e s s models p e r t a i n i n g t o the  case  problem. The g e n e r a l operational  d e c i s i o n p a r a d i g m was e x p a n d e d w i t h d i s c u s s i o n  d e f i n i t i o n s which would enable  elements comprise the  paradigm:  - control  variables  - exogenous v a r i a b l e s - state variables - observing - value - causal  system  system relationships  - contraints  its applications.  Nine  of  - time h o r i z o n - uncertainty structure. The n e x t two c h a p t e r s p r e s e n t r e v i e w s o f l i t e r a t u r e d e s c r i b i n g a n a l y t i c a l models and d e c i s i o n process: models c o n c e r n i n g f a c u l t y rank d i s t r i b u t i o n . d e c i s i o n paradigm  Each c h a p t e r uses t h e nine elements o f t h e general t o s u m m a r i z e t h a t l i t e r a t u r e a n d p r o v i d e summary  p r o f i l e s f o r comparison  i n Chapter S i x ,  57 Chapter Four THE PROBLEM OF FACULTY RANK D I S T R I B U T I O N This chapter introduces and f a c u l t y f l o w . discussed developed.  the concepts o f f a c u l t y rank d i s t r i b u t i o n  The t y p e s a n d c o n d i t i o n s  and a framework f o r c a t e g o r i z i n g  o f f a c u l t y appointment are academic appointments  The s i g n i f i c a n c e o f f a c u l t y rank d i s t r i b u t i o n as a p o l i c y  problem i s examined and the l i t e r a t u r e d e s c r i b i n g a n a l y t i c a l models used to p r o j e c t academic rank d i s t r i b u t i o n s i s r e v i e w e d .  Three  conceptually  d i s t i n c t t y p e s o f models a r e summarized and an example o f each for analysis.  selected  Each o f t h e three examples i s a n a l y z e d u s i n g t h e general  d e c i s i o n paradigm t o produce a p r o f i l e o f t h e s t r u c t u r a l elements o f decision which i t includes. THE NEW " C R I S I S " OF CANADIAN U N I V E R S I T I E S A u n i v e r s i t y i s a special kind o f i n s t i t u t i o n primarily concerned with higher education. Its status i n s o c i e t y derives from several d i s t i n guishing c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s : i t i s concerned with the encouragement and development o f i n t e l l e c t u a l excellence; i t seeks to f o s t e r the kind o f e d u c a t i o n t h a t makes f o r i n t e l l i g e n t a n d s e n s i t i v e c i t i z e n s h i p and e f f e c t i v e l e a d e r s h i p ; i t provides a s e t t i n g i n which ideas o f a l l s o r t s are developed, s c r u t i n i z e d , discussed, and e v a l u a t e d ; i t e n c o u r a g e s i t s members t o p u r s u e k n o w l e d g e b o t h a s a g o o d i n i t s e l f a n d a s a means o f s o l v i n g some o f t h e p r o b l e m s i n a c h a n g i n g w o r l d ; i t makes i t s r e s o u r c e s o f l e a r n i n g a v a i l a b l e t o t h e community a t l a r g e ; and i t t r a i n s adult students i n the application o f specialized knowledge. ( P o r t e r , e t a l ., 1 977:1 ) The c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f a u n i v e r s i t y r e l a t e v e r y c l o s e l y t o t h o s e o f i t s f a c u l t y members, i n d e e d "...  among t h e d u r a b l e t r u i s m s a b o u t  58 u n i v e r s i t i e s a r e 'A u n i v e r s i t y i s i t s f a c u l t y , ' o r "The e x c e l l e n c e o f a university i s the excellence o f i t s f a c u l t y ' . "  ( S m i t h , 1 979:1 ) .  t h e f u t u r e a b i l i t y o f u n i v e r s i t i e s i s s e e n t o be t h r e a t e n e d  However,  as o p p o r -  t u n i t i e s f o r new e n t r a n t s t o f a c u l t y r a n k s d e c r e a s e , a n d e x i s t i n g f a c u l t y become o b s o l e t e o r e x p e r i e n c e  a loss i n productivity or creati-  v i t y ( e . g . Mackie, 1979; Maslen, 1979).  In C a n a d a , t h e phenomenon h a s  been c a l l e d "The New ' C r i s i s ' o f C a n a d i a n U n i v e r s i t i e s " ( v o n Z u r - M u e h l e n , 1 9 7 7 ) a n d d i r e c t s a t t e n t i o n t o t h e p o l i c i e s by w h i c h a p p o i n t m e n t s a s f a c u l t y a r e made o r c h a n g e d .  P a r t i c u l a r a t t e n t i o n i s f o c u s e d on t h e  proportion o f f a c u l t y holding senior rank or appointments with  tenure.  Faculty Appointments The b a s i c c o n c e p t tenure.  underpinning  academic appointments i s that o f  To h o l d t e n u r e i s t o h o l d ". . . a p p o i n t m e n t w i t h o u t t e r m , w h i c h  may be t e r m i n a t e d good reasons  only through  resignation, retirement or dismissal f o r  e s t a b l i s h e d by a p r o p e r h e a r i n g "  Canadian A s s o c i a t i o n o f U n i v e r s i t y Teachers'  (CAUT, 1 9 7 9 : 2 ) .  The  (CAUT) P o l i c y on A c a d e m i c  Appointments and Tenure provides three c l a s s e s o f appointments: (i)  those t h a t confer  tenure;  (ii)  t h o s e t h a t c o n f e r p r o b a t i o n a r y s t a t u s on t h e c a n d i d a t e , i m p l y i n g t h a t a t t h e end o f a s t a t e d p e r i o d t h e u n i v e r s i t y w i l l e i t h e r c o n f e r t e n u r e on h i m / h e r o r d i s c o n tinue the appointment;  (iii)  t h o s e made i n some e x c e p t i o n a l c a s e s , w h e r e a u n i v e r s i t y may f i n d i t n e c e s s a r y  t o make a p p o i n t m e n t s w i t h a  c o n t r a c t u a l l y l i m i t e d t e r m , c a r r y i n g no i m p l i c a t i o n o f r e n e w a l o r c o n t i n u a t i o n b e y o n d t h e t e r m a n d no implication that the appointee  i s on p r o b a t i o n f o r a  permanent appointment  (1979:9),  Those h o l d i n g o r e l i g i b l e f o r tenure are almost e x c l u s i v e l y  full-  t e r m a p p o i n t e e s a n d h o l d an a c a d e m i c r a n k o f P r o f e s s o r , A s s o c i a t e P r o f e s s o r , o r A s s i s t a n t P r o f e s s o r a l t h o u g h , i n some i n s t a n c e s , a t e n u r e d appointment at a lower rank o b t a i n s ( M i c h a e l s , 1974),  In g e n e r a l ,  e l i g i b i l i t y f o r award o f t e n u r e i m p l i e s a commitment t o the f u l l  range  o f r e s e a r c h , t e a c h i n g a n d s e r v i c e f u n c t i o n s o f t h e u n i v e r s i t y (CAUT, 1979) and h o l d i n g t e n u r e i s t a k e n as a p r e r e q u i s i t e f o r and s i g n o f academic freedom (Shulman,  1979).  P r o b a t i o n a r y s t a t u s i s l i m i t e d to a f i n i t e d u r a t i o n , u s u a l l y f i v e y e a r s f o r A s s i s t a n t P r o f e s s o r s a n d two y e a r s f o r h i g h e r g r a d e s . T h e s e l i m i t s a r e p r o v i d e d by t h e CAUT G u i d e l i n e s f o r t h e P o l i c y on A c a d e m i c A p p o i n t m e n t s and T e n u r e and r e p r e s e n t t y p i c a l p r a c t i c e b o t h i n Canadian ( M i c h a e l s , 1974) and American u n i v e r s i t i e s (Trow, 1973).  The  p r a c t i c e s o f awarding tenure, l i m i t i n g the d u r a t i o n o f non-tenured a p p o i n t m e n t s , and p r o v i d i n g t e n u r e o n l y f o r t h o s e w i t h p r o f e s s o r i a l  rank  a n d f u l l - t i m e a p p o i n t m e n t s e s t a b l i s h de facto a s e t o f v a r i a b l e s f o r d e s c r i b i n g t h e f a c u l t y o f an  institution.  I t s h o u l d be n o t e d t h a t p r o v i s i o n r e c e n t l y has been made f o r h o l d i n g t e n u r e as a p a r t - t i m e member o f f a c u l t y .  This development  l e a d to s i g n i f i c a n t changes i n p a t t e r n s o f f a c u l t y appointments.  may So f e w  c a s e s e x i s t a t p r e s e n t , h o w e v e r , t h a t t h e y do n o t c o m p r i s e a s i g n i f i c a n t e l e m e n t i n d e s c r i b i n g t h e f a c u l t y o f an  institution.  F a c u l t y Rank D i s t r i b u t i o n The d i s t r i b u t i o n o f f a c u l t y r a n k r e f e r s s i m p l y t o t h e n u m b e r o f persons h o l d i n g appointments a t each o f the ranks i n c l u d e d i n a d i s t r i bution.  As s u c h , t h e t i t l e o f a c a d e m i c r a n k i s u s e d a s a s i m p l e m e t h o d  60 for categorizing  individuals according  t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n c a n be d e s c r i b e d  t o a nominal s c a l e .  Of course,  i n many ways i n c l u d i n g a b s o l u t e  numbers  and p e r c e n t a g e s o f t h e t o t a l , b u t t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n n o r m a l l y r e f e r s t o the t o t a l population context,  o f f u l l - t i m e f a c u l t y i n an i n s t i t u t i o n .  In t h a t  t h e a c a d e m i c r a n k s a r e t h e p r o f e s s o r i a l g r a d e s common i n  North America; i . e . Professor,  Associate  Professor,  and t h e l o w e r r a n k s , u s u a l l y i n c l u d i n g I n s t r u c t o r s , F a c u l t y r a n k d i s t r i b u t i o n was i n t r o d u c e d  Assistant and  Professor  Lecturers.  as a contemporary  issue  o f h i g h e r e d u c a t i o n management i n C a n a d a b y v o n Z u r - M u e h l e n ( 1 9 7 7 ) . However, t h e m a t t e r o f l i m i t e d p r o s p e c t s f o r appointment t o academic rank, o r promotion t o higher  r a n k was r e l a t e d t o c u r r e n t  Canadian  d e m o g r a p h i c s and rank c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s by Holmes i n 1974. More the study and m o d e l l i n g o f academic rank populations  generally,  was r e p o r t e d  by  Bartholemew i n 1969. I n t e r e s t i n academic rank d i s t r i b u t i o n r a r e l y r e s t r i c t s examination to point-in-time  data.  From an a d m i n i s t r a t i v e  v i e w p o i n t , any one  d i s t r i b u t i o n i s seen as an i n d i c a t o r o r r e f l e c t i o n o f p o l i c y c o n c e r n i n g academic s t a f f i n g ( D i l l , 1974). achieve desired goals and  Since  p o l i c y i s an instrument t o  (Dye, 1972), current  s t a f f i n g p o l i c y has r e f e r e n t s  i m p a c t s i n t h e f u t u r e t h a t make f o r e c a s t i n g  rank d i s t r i b u t i o n  important t o understanding both e x i s t i n g p o l i c y and possible Given that future o r i e n t a t i o n , the duration  changes.  o f an academic a p p o i n t -  ment becomes an i m p o r t a n t v a r i a b l e s , as w e l l as a c a d e m i c r a n k . therefore,  p o s s i b l e more s p e c i f i c a l l y t o c a t e g o r i z e  in terms o f t h e nominal l a b e l attached; temporal d e s c r i p t i o n , i . e .duration  It is,  academic appointments  i . e . p r o f e s s o r i a l rank, and the  (See Figure  3). A special class of  61 appointments are those without a f i n i t e duration, as t e n u r e d a p p o i n t m e n t s .  commonly r e f e r r e d t o  As a c l a s s , t h e y p r o v i d e  a p a r t i c u l a r con-  s t r a i n t on t h e f u t u r e o f a c a d e m i c a p p o i n t m e n t r a n k d i s t r i b u t i o n s . FIGURE 3 A FRAMEWORK FOR C A T E G O R I Z I N G ACADEMIC APPOINTMENTS  FULL PROFESSOR  DURATION  RANK ASSOCIATE ASSISTANT PROFESSOR PROFESSOR  ~ INSTRUCTOR  LECTURER  TENURED NON-TENURED Any d i s t r i b u t i o n o f a c a d e m i c a p p o i n t m e n t s may be d e s c r i b e d the c a t e g o r i z a t i o n not provide  framework i n Figure  3.  However, t h e framework does  a n y r e l a t i o n s h i p s among i t s c e l l s , o r s t a t e s ,  f u r t h e r d i s t r i b u t i o n s c a n be d e r i v e d  using  f r o m i t . To d e s c r i b e  hence.no the temporal  r e l a t i o n s h i p s among t h e s t a t e s , o r s u b s e t s o f s t a t e s , a s e t o f m a t h e m a t i cal e q u a t i o n s l i n k i n g d i s t r i b u t i o n s a t d i f f e r e n t times a l s o i s used. T o g e t h e r t h e c o m p o n e n t s t a t e s a n d r e l a t i o n s h i p s among t h e m c o n s t i t u t e models (Kaplan, 1964) which provide  f o r d e s c r i p t i o n and a n a l y s i s o f  f a c u l t y a p p o i n t m e n t d i s t r i b u t i o n s a t d i f f e r e n t t i m e s by s i m u l a t i n g t h e progression  o f f a c u l t y members i n t o , o u t o f a n d w i t h i n t h e c a t e g o r i z a t i o n  framework.  I t i s important to note that any abstract summarization o f  t h e i n d i v i d u a l members o f a u n i v e r s i t y f a c u l t y o n t h e b a s i s o f h e i g h t o r d e g r e e s h e l d o r , a s i n t h i s e x a m p l e , on t h e b a s i s o f t h e i r r a n k o r a p p o i n t m e n t t y p e , l o s e s a v a s t amount o f i n f o r m a t i o n  a b o u t e a c h member.  M o r e o v e r , by f o c u s i n g on t h e o v e r a l l movement o f f a c u l t y w i t h r e s p e c t t o  62 a c a t e g o r i z a t i o n s c h e m e , t h e f a c t t h a t e a c h p a r t i c u l a r movement r e q u i r e s i n d i v i d u a l d e c i s i o n s and d e c i s i o n s a b o u t i n d i v i d u a l s can be l o s t a s  one  g a t h e r s an i m p r e s s i o n o f s t e p s t a k e n by c o l l e c t i v i t i e s . S i g n i f i c a n c e o f F a c u l t y Rank Distribution We have d e f i n e d p o l i c y as a g u i d e l i n e f o r f u t u r e a c t i o n w h i c h a f f e c t s the s t r u c t u r e o f the o r g a n i z a t i o n , r e q u i r e s a l o n g time  perspec-  t i v e and has t h e w i d e s t r a m i f i c a t i o n s o f a l l g e n e r a l i z a t i o n s a b o u t t h e organization.  In w h a t ways d o e s f a c u l t y r a n k d i s t r i b u t i o n c o n s t i t u t e a  p o l i c y problem? F i r s t , f a c u l t y rank d i s t r i b u t i o n provides the d i f f e r e n t i a t i o n among f a c u l t y w h i c h may  be s e e n as t h e s t r u c t u r e o f t h e u n i v e r s i t y .  c o u r s e , o r g a n i z a t i o n i n t o d e p a r t m e n t s and f a c u l t i e s may  a l s o be t a k e n  the main f e a t u r e o f u n i v e r s i t y s t r u c t u r e , but academic rank w i t h i n subunits i s s t i l l a major s t r u c t u r a l v a r i a b l e .  Of  Whether one  as  those  emphasizes  t h e a c a d e m i c c o l l e g i u m o v e r t h e b u r e a u c r a t i c s t r u c t u r e o r vice versa has a m a j o r i n f l u e n c e on t h e p r i m a c y  o f rank as a s t r u c t u r a l v a r i a b l e ;  h o w e v e r , i t i s as a m a t t e r o f d e g r e e r a t h e r t h a n e x c l u s i v i t y . S e c o n d , a w a r d i n g t e n u r e t o a f a c u l t y member a t age t h i r t y i m p l i e s a commitment o f r o u g h l y t h i r t y - f i v e y e a r s d u r a t i o n , s i n c e t h e i n d i v i d u a l may  s t a y w i t h t h e i n s t i t u t i o n t i l l he o r she r e t i r e s . Of c o u r s e ,  i s a v a r i e t y o f o t h e r t h i n g s t h a t c o u l d happen; the newly t e n u r e d may  l e a v e i n a y e a r o r two;  i n d i v i d u a l and may  there person  h o w e v e r , t h a t d e c i s i o n i s l a r g e l y made by  r e q u i r e t h a t he o r s h e be r e p l a c e d w i t h a n o t h e r  t o whom a s i m i l a r l y l o n g i n s t i t u t i o n a l c o m m i t m e n t m u s t be made. w i t h f i n a n c i a l and a c a d e m i c i m p l i c a t i o n s e x t e n d i n g o v e r n e a r l y two  the  person Matters scores  years are c l e a r l y those which r e q u i r e a l o n g time p e r s p e c t i v e i n t h e i r  c o n s i d e r a t i o n , h e n c e f a c u l t y r a n k d i s t r i b u t i o n , b e i n g t h e sum  of  i n d i v i d u a l commitments, must have a l o n g time p e r s p e c t i v e . F i n a l l y , i t has b e e n n o t e d t h a t t h e f a c u l t y a r e t h e s o u r c e o f excellence of a university.  S i n c e the encouragement  and development  of  e x c e l l e n c e are the bases f o r the u n i v e r s i t y ' s s t a t u s i n s o c i e t y , the p u r s u i t o f knowledge  and i t s d i s s e m i n a t i o n through t e a c h i n g a r e the  s u b j e c t s o f the most b a s i c g e n e r a l i z a t i o n s about the u n i v e r s i t y .  If  e x c e l l e n t performance o f those tasks i s i n jeopardy, then the matter o f a s t a g n a t i n g f a c u l t y i s p r o f o u n d , and d o e s i n d e e d c a r r y t h e w i d e s t r a m i f i c a t i o n s f o r the u n i v e r s i t y .  Hence, i t becomes i m p o r t a n t t o examine  the r e l a t i o n s h i p s between academic rank and the p r o d u c t i o n o f  knowledge  or t e a c h i n g . R e l a t i n g A c a d e m i c Rank t o U n i v e r s i t y Outputs and Inputs The m a j o r k i n d s o f " o u t p u t s " from a u n i v e r s i t y a r e t e a c h i n g , r e s e a r c h and p u b l i c s e r v i c e ( Y u k e r , 1 9 7 4 ) , w h i l e t h e p r i n c i p a l i n p u t r e l a t i n g t o r a n k i s money f o r s a l a r i e s .  I n b o t h c a s e s , r a n k i s an  v e n i n g f a c t o r , n e i t h e r a n o u t p u t n o r an i n p u t .  inter-  The e v i d e n c e l i n k i n g  s e n i o r rank o r h o l d i n g tenure to l e v e l o r q u a l i t y o f those outputs i s mixed.  E l s t e r m a n n (1978) notes t h a t examining the p r o d u c t i v i t y o f  r e s e a r c h e r s does n o t r e v e a l a s i g n i f i c a n t c o r r e l a t i o n between age and productivity.  B a y e r and D u t t o n ( 1 9 7 5 ) r e p o r t v a r i o u s c u r v i l i n e a r  r e l a t i o n s h i p s between p r o d u c t i v i t y and c a r e e r age, but t h e i r c o m p e l l i n g c o n c l u s i o n i s t h a t c a r e e r age i s a poor p r e d i c t o r o f r e s e a r c h a c t i v i t y . H e s e l d e n z (1976) r e v i e w e d s e v e r a l e a r l i e r s t u d i e s and o b s e r v e d  t h a t "no r e s e a r c h e r  has d e a l t d i r e c t l y w i t h f a c u l t y w o r k l o a d  differences  a c c o r d i n g t o a c a d e m i c r a n k " ( p . 3 2 2 ) . In a s t u d y o f 795 f a c u l t y a t a l a r g e s t a t e u n i v e r s i t y , Heseldenz found a modest decrease i n time devoted t o i n s t r u c t i o n w i t h i n c r e a s i n g p r o f e s s o r i a l r a n k , a n d an i n c r e a s e i n i n s t i t u t i o n a l o r p r o f e s s i o n a l s e r v i c e with i n c r e a s i n g academic  rank  ( s e e T a b l e I ) . I n t e r e s t i n g l y , t h e r e was no s t a t i s t i c a l d i f f e r e n c e among t h e t o t a l a m o u n t s o f t i m e d e v o t e d t o u n i v e r s i t y a c t i v i t y by members o f d i f f e r e n t rank.  Rather, i n s t r u c t i o n a l time and i n s t i t u t i o n a l o r p r o f e s -  s i o n a l s e r v i c e t i m e were f o u n d t o be c o m p l e m e n t a r y ;  i . e . , a decrease i n  t i m e d e v o t e d t o i n s t r u c t i o n was n o t r e f l e c t e d i n a n i n c r e a s e i n r e s e a r c h a c t i v i t y , b u t w i t h an i n c r e a s e i n time d e v o t e d t o s e r v i c e a c t i v i t i e s , i n c l u d i n g meetings f o r a d m i n i s t r a t i v e purposes within the u n i v e r s i t y . TABLE I TIME DEVOTED TO ACADEMIC A C T I V I T I E S BY ACADEMIC RANK RANK (NUMBER)  INSTRUCTION  RESEARCH  PUBLIC SERVICE  I N S T . PROF. SERVICE  TOTAL  Professor (208)  25.1  13.9  1 .6  13.8  57.3  Associate (255)  27.1  14.7  1 .6  10.8  54.1  A s s i s t a n t s (332)  31.0  13.9  1 .6  8.7  55.0  ( A l l f i g u r e s a r e s e l f - r e p o r t e d hours p e r week) ( A d a p t e d f r o m T a b l e s 2 a n d 5, H e s e l d e n z , 1 9 7 6 ) A n a l y s i s o f f a c u l t y workload using s e l f - r e p o r t i n g instruments such as t h a t e m p l o y e d that considerable results.  by H e s e l d e n z h a s been c r i t i q u e d by Y u k e r ( 1 9 7 4 ) who n o t e s r e p o r t i n g b i a s can reduce t h e r e l i a b i l i t y o f such  I f one i s a b l e , f o r t h e p u r p o s e o f a n a l y s i s , t o r e l y on t h e  H e s e l d e n z r e s u l t s , t h e d i f f e r e n c e s among a c a d e m i c r a n k s i n t e r m s o f t h e i r  65 use o f time a r e not g r e a t . f a c u l t y output  (Yuker,  W h i l e use o f time i s a poor measure o f  1974)  i t does o f f e r a b a s i s f o r comparison.  On t h e o t h e r h a n d , W o o d r i n g ( 1 9 7 3 ) o b s e r v e s  that effectiveness  i n t h e p r o f e s s i o n s and i n d e e d i n h i g h e r e d u c a t i o n a p p e a r s t o be m o r e d e p e n d e n t upon e x p e r i e n c e ,  k n o w l e d g e , w i s d o m and m a t u r i t y t h a n  youthful v i g o r (1973:24).  S i m i l a r l y , Blackburn  on  (1972:31) f i n d s a  r e l a t i o n s h i p i n d i c a t i n g t h a t p e r f o r m a n c e , a d a p t a t i o n , and t h o u g h t s r e f o r m i n c r e a s e w i t h r a n k and a g e ; w h i l e t h e r e was no e v i d e n c e  of  that  tenure led e i t h e r to stagnation or c u r t a i l e d ouput. In a n a n a l y s i s o f u n i v e r s i t y r e s e a r c h e r s s u p p o r t e d NRC,  by C a n a d a ' s  Meunier (1977) notes t h a t "the d e c l i n e i n the p r o d u c t i v i t y o f the  r e s e a r c h f o r c e as a r e s u l t o f t h e d e c r e a s i n g number o f r e s e a r c h a s s i s t a n t s and t e c h n i c a l s u p p o r t s t a f f i s thought  t o be m o r e c r i t i c a l f o r t h e  h e a l t h o f u n i v e r s i t y research than the aging of the  researchers"  (1977:22). Whether c o n d i t i o n s o f academic a c t i v i t y have changed s i n c e the e a r l y 1970's, o r whether the f i n d i n g s r e p o r t e d are g e n e r a l i z a b l e , i s not c l e a r .  At best, evidence  gives l i t t l e support to the argument t h a t  h o l d i n g e i t h e r o r b o t h o f s e n i o r r a n k and t e n u r e t h r e a t e n s t h e p r o d u c t i vity of university faculty.  O f c o u r s e , two m a j o r c h a n g e s i n c o n t e m p o r a r y  a c a d e m i c l i f e c a n be d o c u m e n t e d .  F i r s t i s t h e d i m i n i s h i n g number o f  a p p o i n t m e n t s ( S t a t i s t i c s C a n a d a , 1979) r e d u c t i o n i n a d d i n g new  -  possible  i d e a s and e n e r g y t o t h e w o r k o f s e n i o r  t h a t such a change c o u l d cause. research d o l l a r s over the  and the a t t e n d a n t  new  colleagues  Second i s the e r o s i o n o f f e d e r a l  p a s t d e c a d e (CAUT, 1 9 8 0 ) .  With u n c l e a r l i n k s between a c a d e m i c rank and u n i v e r s i t y o u t p u t s ,  a t t e n t i o n may  be d i r e c t e d t o t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n a c a d e m i c r a n k  d i s t r i b u t i o n and u n i v e r s i t y i n p u t s .  While v a r i o u s methods o f compensa-  t i n g f a c u l t y members e x i s t ( e . g . B e a u m o n t , 1978)  i t generally  is true  t h a t s a l a r i e s i n c r e a s e w i t h a c a d e m i c r a n k ( e . g . Holmes and von 1979).  Therefore,  higher  the f i s c a l requirements f o r a group o f f a c u l t y w i t h  r a n k w i l l be g r e a t e r  equal s i z e .  Zur-Muehlen,  Under c o n d i t i o n s  than f o r a lower ranking of constraint  f a c u l t y group o f  in university  financing,  t h e p r o b l e m o f an i n c r e a s i n g l y e x p e n s i v e f a c u l t y w i l l be s e e n t o increase  p r e s s u r e on u n i v e r s i t y  budgets.  Whichever concern, outputs or inputs,  is central  i n the mind o f  a p o l i c y maker, there i s ample e v i d e n c e t h a t the i n c r e a s i n g of faculty holding  proportion  t e n u r e and s e n i o r r a n k i s s e e n as a c o n t e m p o r a r y  p r o b l e m f o r u n i v e r s i t i e s (e.g. Kenny, 1977).  Several  policy  positions  e x i s t i n a t t e m p t i n g to g r a p p l e w i t h the problem, f o r example B o l t e e t a l . (1976) o u t l i n e s i x a l t e r n a t i v e promotion p l a n s v a r i o u s l y t i m e - i n - r a n k r e q u i r e m e n t s , q u o t a s , s p e c i f i c and g e n e r a l combinations  incorporating criteria  and  thereof.  As o u t l i n e d i n t h e o p e n i n g s e c t i o n s o f t h i s c h a p t e r , t h e r a n k d i s t r i b u t i o n c a n be d e s c r i b e d  faculty  i n terms of a simple framework.  p r o m o t i o n p l a n s o u t l i n e d by B o l t e e t a l . p r o v i d e  various  rules  The  for  m a k i n g j u d g m e n t s a b o u t i n d i v i d u a l s as t h e y move f r o m one s t a t e t o a n o t h e r in that framework.  However, our a t t e n t i o n i s d i r e c t e d to the  faculty  r a n k d i s t r i b u t i o n as a summary s t a t e m e n t o f many d e c i s i o n s made w i t h respect  to i n d i v i d u a l s .  S i n c e the d i s p o s i t i o n o f s p e c i f i c c a s e s  involves application of i n s t i t u t i o n a l policy in conjunction  with other  c r i t e r i a , e.g.  about  peer review, to making p a r t i c u l a r d e c i s i o n s  individual appointments.  Moreover, the y e a r to y e a r change i n the  d i s t r i b u t i o n o f f a c u l t y among t h e r a n k s i s t h e m o s t c o m m o n l y u s e d i n d i c a t o r f o r a n a l y s i s i n attempting to understand the implications of institutional practices.  Several mathematical treatments of t h a t  o v e r a l l e v o l u t i o n have been d e v i s e d and a r e r e v i e w e d i n the n e x t section. FACULTY FLOW MODELS Two b a s i c c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s d e t e r m i n e t h e s t r u c t u r e o f a f a c u l t y flow model:  (1) t h e s e t s o f rank a n d / o r a p p o i n t m e n t d u r a t i o n s used as  an o r g a n i z i n g f r a m e w o r k ;  and, (2) the form o f the mathematical l i n k a g e s  between t h e s e t s a c r o s s time.  T h r e e g e n e r a l s t r u c t u r e s have been used  in e a r l i e r research: (a)  p e r c e n t a g e p o i n t i n c r e a s e s ( e . g . von Zur-Muehlen, H o l m e s a n d von Z u r - M u e h l e n ,  (b)  (c)  1979);  e q u i l i b r i u r n m o d e l s ( e . g . O l i v e r , 1969; L a S a l l e , Higbee, 1975);  1977;  1972;  and,  Markov c h a i n s (Bartholomew,  1969; S c h r o e d e r ,  1973;  H o p k i n s , 1974; G o v e i a , 1 9 7 5 ; B l o o m f i e l d , 1 9 7 6 ) . A n o t h e r method o f p r o j e c t i n g f a c u l t y rank d i s t r i b u t i o n a s s e s s e s the l i k e l i h o o d o f a change i n rank o r appointment f o r each f a c u l t y member a n d sums a l l t h e t r a n s a c t i o n s i n t o a new  individual  distribution.  T h i s Monte C a r l o t e c h n i q u e does n o t r e l a t e d i s t r i b u t i o n s a c r o s s time and w i l l n o t be c o n s i d e r e d f u r t h e r , a l t h o u g h i t i s u s e f u l t o n o t e t h a t , i n c o m p a r i s o n w i t h a M a r k o v c h a i n , ". . . b o t h m e t h o d s a r r i v e d a t r e m a r k a b l y s i m i l a r r e s u l t s " (Goveia, 1975).  No o t h e r m a t h e m a t i c a l t e c h n i q u e s w e r e  f o u n d t o be a p p l i e d t o f a c u l t y r a n k d i s t r i b u t i o n .  Percentage  Point Increase  Models  The m o s t s i m p l e o f f a c u l t y f l o w m o d e l s has been a p p l i e d t o d a t a s u m m a r i z i n g a l l t h e u n i v e r s i t i e s i n C a n a d a (von Z u r - M u e h l e n , 1 9 7 7 ; and von Z u r - M u e h l e n , 1 9 7 9 ) .  The a p p r o a c h u s e d e x a m i n e s t h e  historical  change i n r e l a t i v e p r o p o r t i o n s o f f a c u l t y at each o f f o u r academic ( s e e T a b l e I I ) and makes a s e t o f p r o j e c t i o n s b a s e d on a growth i n the percentage  Holmes  ranks  constant  o f F u l l P r o f e s s o r s and A s s o c i a t e  Professors,  with a s s o c i a t e d d e c l i n e s i n the p r o p o r t i o n s o f A s s i s t a n t Professors  and  t h e Rank B e l o w A s s i s t a n t ; t h e sum o f t h e d e c l i n e s and i n c r e a s e s i s s e t a t z e r o on t h e a s s u m p t i o n o f no i n c r e a s e i n t h e o v e r a l l s i z e o f t h e professoriate. A l g e b r a i c a l l y , the percentage N  N  i  (t l)  x  l  0  0  c h a n g e a p p r o a c h may  N  %  +  x 100%  t  +  be  expressed:  P  i  Where: U. = t h e number o f f a c u l t y h o l d i n g a p p o i n t m e n t a t r a n k i P. = a f i x e d p e r c e n t a g e  r a t e o f growth f o r the  holding rank i . i = 1 for Instructors/Lecturers i = 2 for Assistant  Professors  i = 3 for Associate  Professors  i=4  for Professors  Such t h a t : i=4 i=l a n d , f o r no  N  i  ^  '  growth: '(t+l)  =  V )  \ /  i=4 i=l i P  population  TABLE I I ACADEMIC RANK D I S T R I B U T I O N OF FULL-TIME U N I V E R S I T Y TEACHERS, S E L E C T E D YEARS, 1 9 6 7 - 6 8 TO 1 9 7 7 - 7 8 1967-68  1971-72  1 973-74  1 975-76  1976-77  1977-:  (in percent) Professor  18.5  21 .3  23.2  25.7  26.7  27.8  Associate Professor  25.2  29.1  32.5  35.6  37.1  38.2  43.7  50.4  55.7  61.3  63.8  66.0  Assistant Professor  37.0  37.4  34.7  31.3  29.7  28.0  Rank B e l o w Assistant Professor  19.3  12.2  9.8  7.4  6.5  6.0  56.3  49.6  44.5  38.7  36.2  34.0  16 132  26 973  28 399  30 784  31 676  N/A  Full  Sub-total  Sub-total Number R e p o r t e d *  • I n c l u d e s t h e " o t h e r " c a t e g o r y o f t e a c h e r s u n g r a d e d and v i s i t i n g p r o f e s s o r s . * * E s t i m a t e s b a s e d on 40 u n i v e r s i t i e s .  ( a d a p t e d f r o m Holmes and v o n Z u r - M u e h l e n , 1979  70 The p e r c e n t a g e g r o w t h a p p r o a c h s e e k s s i m p l y t o f i t a m a t h e m a t i c a l c u r v e t o a s e t o f summary d a t a .  In so d o i n g , t h e a p p r o a c h i s an  a p p l i c a t i o n o f " c u r v e - f i t t i n g " ( W i n g , 1974; K r a e t s c h , 1 9 7 9 ) .  The  h i s t o r i c a l p r o p o r t i o n o f appointments a t each rank i g n o r e s the q u e s t i o n o f d u r a t i o n , a n d t h e l i n k i n g o f one d i s t r i b u t i o n t o a l a t e r v e r s i o n d o e s n o t a d d r e s s any o f the t r a n s i t i o n d e t a i l s i n c o r p o r a t e d i n t o e q u i l i b r i u m o r Markov models.  The r e l a t i v e s i z e o f rank p o p u l a t i o n s uses the most  s i m p l e c o m b i n a t i o n o f c o n c e p t s , and m a t h e m a t i c a l l y i s the s i m p l e s t o f the three c l a s s e s o f models. T h e p e r c e n t a g e i n c r e a s e a p p r o a c h has been a p p l i e d t o t h e p o p u l a t i o n o f f u l l - t i m e u n i v e r s i t y t e a c h e r s i n C a n a d a on t h e b a s i s o f t h r e e a l t e r n a t i v e s e t s o f a s s u m p t i o n s a b o u t r a t e s o f change i n p r o p o r t i o n s o f t h e p r o f e s s o r i a t e , P.. (Holmes a n d von Z u r - M u e h l e n , 1 9 7 9 ) . f o l l o w i n g t a b l e summarizes each rank under each  The  the p e r c e n t a g e change i n the p r o p o r t i o n o f  assumption: TABLE I I I  A L T E R N A T I V E RATES OF CHANGE IN PROPORTION OF P R O F E S S O R I A T E , P. ACADEMIC RANK, i ASSOCIATE ASSISTANT PROFESSOR PROFESSOR  ALTERNATIVE  FULL PROFESSOR  A  0.5  0.8  -1.1  -0.4  B  0.8  1.5  -1.7  -0.6  C  1.0  2.0  -2.2  -0.8  (Note:  a l l rates are percentage o f total calculated annually.)  RANK BELOW ASSISTANT  professoriate, (Holmes a n d von 1 979)  Zur-Muehlen,  71 Each a l t e r n a t i v e assumes a f i x e d s i z e f o r Canada's  professoriate.  T h e e x t r e m e p r o j e c t i o n ( s e e "C" i n T a b l e I V ) w o u l d s e e 8 7 % o f  Canada's  u n i v e r s i t y t e a c h e r s h o l d i n g s e n i o r r a n k by 1 9 8 4 - 8 5 w i t h t h e v i r t u a l e l i m i n a t i o n o f the rank below A s s i s t a n t . Equilibrium  Models  E q u i l i b r i u m m o d e l s l i n k s a s m a l l number o f c e l l s , u s u a l l y t h r e e o r f o u r , w i t h a m o d e s t number o f i n p u t a n d o u t p u t a n d t r a n s i t i o n p a t h s among them. b r i u m model  By l i n k i n g s p e c i f i c s t a t e s w i t h s p e c i f i c p a t h w a y s , t h e e q u i l i i n c o r p o r a t e s more c o m p l e x c a u s a l l i n k s t h a n p e r c e n t a g e p o i n t  increase models.  Rather than o n l y f i t t i n g data to a curve, t h i s c l a s s  o f models a r e p a r t o f t h e l a r g e r c l a s s o f c a u s a l , as d i s t i n c t from c u r v e f i t t i n g , models (Wing, 1974).  F o r example, O l i v e r (1969) does n o t i n c o r -  p o r a t e a n y r a n k v a r i a b l e s , b u t u s e s two c e l l s , b a s e d on t h e t e n u r e / non-tenure d i s t i n c t i o n , plus a c e l l f o r r e t i r i n g f a c u l t y i n c o n j u n c t i o n with a t o t a l o f seven paths.  (See F i g u r e 4 ) .  S i m i l a r l y , L a S a l l e (1972)  u s e s a t h r e e - c e l l f o r m a t , u s i n g t h e t h r e e p r o f e s s o r i a l r a n k s as c e l l i d e n t i f i e r s , and i n c o r p o r a t e s n i n e p o s s i b l e pathways.  (See F i g u r e 5 ) .  An a p p l i c a t i o n o f e q u i l i b r i u m m o d e l l i n g t o a C a n a d i a n  institution  was made a t M c M a s t e r U n i v e r s i t y ( H i g b e e , 1 9 7 5 ; P a r d a s a n i , 1 9 7 2 ) .  The  M c M a s t e r f r a m e w o r k was d e v e l o p e d f r o m a s l i g h t l y m o r e c o m p l e x f o r m u l a t i o n , but i n f i n a l form uses f o u r rank o n l y c e l l s (and twelve pathways). (See F i g u r e 6 ) .  I t p r o v i d e s f o r h i r i n g o f new s t a f f a t e a c h r a n k  (H^)  promotion through the ranks ( P ^ ) , s e p a r a t i o n through death or r e s i g n a t i o n from each rank (T^) and r e t i r e m e n t from the rank o f P r o f e s s o r ( R ) . A n o t h e r a p p l i c a t i o n i n a C a n a d i a n s e t t i n g was a t W a t e r l o o U n i v e r s i t y (Foord, 1974).  T h a t e q u i l i b r i u m model was t h e m o s t c o m p l e x , u s i n g t e n  TABLE IV PROJECTED RANK D I S T R I B U T I O N OF F U L L - T I M E U N I V E R S I T Y TEACHERS, 1 9 7 8 - 7 9 TO 1 9 8 4 - 8 5  ACADEMIC YEAR  FULL PROFESSOR A B C ( 0 . 5 ) ( 0 . 8 ) (1 •0)  ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR A B C (1 •0) ( 1 . 5 ) ( 2 . 0 )  SUB-TOTAL TWO SENIOR RANKS A B C  A S S I S T A N T PROFESSOR A B C  LECTURER/INSTRUCTOR A B  0 •5) ( 2 . 3 ) ( 3 . 0 )  (-1.1) (-1. 7) (-2.2)  (-0.4) (-0.6) (-0.8)  1978-79  28.3  28.6  28 .8  39 .2  39.7  40.2  67 .5  68.3  69.0  26.9  26. 3  25.8  5.6  5.4  5.2  1979-80  28.8  29.4  29 .8  40 .2  41 .2  42.2  69 .0  70.6  72.0  25.8  24. 6  23.6  5.2  4.8  4.4  1980-81  29.3  30.2  30 .8  41 .2  42.7  44.2  70 .5  72.9  75.0  24.7  22. 9  21 .4  4.8  4.2  3.6  1 981 -82  29.8  31 .0  31 .8  42 .2  44.2  46.2  72 .0  75.2  78.0  23.6  21. 2  19.2  4.4  3.6  2.8  1982-83  30.3  31 .8  32 .8  43 .2  45.7  48.2  73 .5  77.5  81.0  22.5  19. 5  17.0  4.0  3.0  2.0  1983-84  30.8  32.6  33 .8  44 .2  47.2  50.2  75 .0  79.8  84.0  21 .4  17. 8  14.8  3.6  2.4  1 .2  1984-85  31 .3  33.4  34 .8  45 .2  48.7  52.2  76 .5  82.1  87.0  20.3  16. 1  12.6  3.2  1 .8  0.4  Note:  T h e p e r c e n t a g e i n b r a c k e t s i n d i c a t e s f o r t h e p r o j e c t i o n s A, B a n d C t h e a s s u m p t i o n s on w h i c h t h e d i s t r i b u t e d s h i f t s a r e b a s e d . T h e number o f f u l l - t i m e u n i v e r s i t y t e a c h e r s h a s been k e p t c o n s t a n t a t 32 0 0 0 d u r i n g t h e p r o j e c t i o n p e r i o d . (Holmes a n d v o n Z u r - M u e h l e n , 1 9 7 9 : 8 )  FIGURE 4 A TWO-STAGE E Q U I L I B R I U M FLOW MODEL BASED ON DURATION OF APPOINTMENT ( S P E C I F I E D VS. U N S P E C I F I E D ) ( O l i v e r , 1 969:10)  TENURE APPOINTMENTS  * 1 NON-TENURE APPOINTMENTS  6?, l NON-TENURE N  N TENURE 0  N  3  RETIREMENTS  YA RESIGNATIONS AND DEATHS  RESIGNATIONS AND DEATHS  DEATHS  CO  FIGURE 5 A THREE-STAGE E Q U I L I B R I U M FLOW MODEL BASED ON ACADEMIC RANK ( L a S a l l e , 1972) V  V l w  In  l Assistant Professor  2\b  In  In  *3\V  A  Associate Professor  Up  Out  Up  Professor  Out  Retire  Out  FIGURE 6 A FOUR-STAGE E Q U I L I B R I U M FLOW MODEL BASED ON ACADEMIC RANK (Higbee, 1975)  >J/H Instructor  P  Assistant Professor  YH Associate Professor  Y H P  Full Professor  V  s t a t e s b a s e d on t h e t h r e e p r o f e s s i o n a l r a n k s i n c o n j u n c t i o n w i t h  three  types o f appointment ( d e f i n i t e term, p r o b a t i o n a r y , t e n u r e ) , plus a s t a t e f o r l e c t u r e r s on d e f i n i t e t e r m  appointments.  As an e x a m p l e o f t h e more u s u a l e q u i l i b r i u m f o r m u l a t i o n , t h e M c M a s t e r m o d e l may be e x a m i n e d i n some d e t a i l .  The e q u a t i o n s w h i c h h o l d  f o r t h e model ( P a r d a s a n i , 1 9 7 2 : 2 t h r o u g h 4) a r e : N  =  NI  + N2 +  N3 +  N4  (1)  D  =  Dl  + D2 +  D3 +  D4  (2)  VI  Nl/N  (3)  V2  =  N2/N  (4)  V3  =  N3/N  (5)  V4  =  N4/N  (6)  Rl  =  ui  • NI  (7)  R2  =  U2 • N2  (8)  R3  =  U3 * N3  (9)  R4  =  U4 • N4  (10)  SI  =  Ql  (ID  S2  =  Q2 * N2  (12)  S3  =  Q3  * N3  (13)  S4  =  04 • N4  (14)  TI  =  1 Ul +  (15)  T2  =  1 U2 + Q2  (16)  T3  =  1 U3 + Q3  (17)  T4  =  1 U4 + Q4  (18)  • NI  76 Where: N  = T o t a l No. o f F a c u l t y  NI  = No. o f I n s t r u c t o r s  N2  = No. o f A s s i s t a n t P r o f e s s o r s  N3  = No. o f A s s o c i a t e  N4  = No. o f F u l l  D  = T o t a l No. o f f a c u l t y h i r e d e a c h  Dl  = No. o f new  D2  = No. o f new A s s i s t a n t P r o f e s s o r s h i r e d e a c h  year  D3  = No. o f new A s s o c i a t e P r o f e s s o r s h i r e d e a c h  year  D4  = No. o f new  VI  = R a t i o o f I n s t r u c t o r s to T o t a l F a c u l t y  V2  = Ratio o f A s s i s t a n t P r o f e s s o r s to T o t a l F a c u l t y  V3  = Ratio o f A s s o c i a t e Professors to Total F a c u l t y  V4  = R a t i o o f F u l l P r o f e s s o r s to T o t a l F a c u l t y  RI  = No. o f I n s t r u c t o r s l e a v i n g (due t o d e a t h and r e s i g n a t i o n ) e a c h  R2  = No. o f A s s i s t a n t P r o f e s s o r s l e a v i n g (due t o d e a t h a n d each year'  resignation)  R3  = No. o f A s s o c i a t e P r o f e s s o r s l e a v i n g (due t o d e a t h a n d each y e a r  resignation)  R4  = No. o f F u l l P r o f e s s o r s l e a v i n g (due t o d e a t h and r e s i g n a t i o n ) e a c h year  51  = No. o f I n s t r u c t o r s p r o m o t e d e a c h y e a r ( t o A s s i s t a n t P r o f e s s o r s )  52  = No. o f A s s i s t a n t P r o f e s s o r s p r o m o t e d e a c h y e a r ( t o A s s o c i a t e  Professors  Professors  I n s t r u c t o r s h i r e d each  year year  F u l l P r o f e s s o r s h i r e d each  year  year  Professors) 53  = No. o f A s s o c i a t e P r o f e s s o r s p r o m o t e d e a c h y e a r ( t o F u l l  54  = No. o f F u l l P r o f e s s o r s r e t i r i n g e a c h  Ul  = R e s i g n a t i o n and death r a t e o f I n s t r u c t o r s  U2  = R e s i g n a t i o n and death r a t e o f A s s i s t a n t P r o f e s s o r s  year  Professors)  U3  = R e s i g n a t i o n and d e a t h r a t e o f A s s o c i a t e  114" = R e s i g n a t i o n a n d d e a t h r a t e o f F u l l  Professors  Professors  Ql  = Promotion rate of I n s t r u c t o r s (to A s s i s t a n t Professors)  Q2  = Promotion rate of A s s i s t a n t Professors (to A s s o c i a t e  Q3  = Promotion rate of Associate Professors (to Full  Q4  = Retirement rate of Full  TI  = A v e r a g e s e r v i c e l i f e o f an i n s t r u c t o r  T2  = A v e r a g e s e r v i c e l i f e o f an A s s i s t a n t P r o f e s s o r  T3  = A v e r a g e s e r v i c e l i f e o f an A s s o c i a t e  T4  = Average s e r v i c e l i f e o f a Full  Professors)  Professors)  Professors  Professor  Professor  In a d d i t i o n , t h e c o n d i t i o n o f no g r o w t h i n t h e s i z e o f f a c u l t y requires that: Dl  = SI + RI  (19)  D2 + SI  = S2 + R2  (20)  D3 + S2  = S3 + R3  (21 )  D4 + S3  = S4 + R4  (22)  F i n a l l y , t h e f o l l o w i n g i n e q u a l i t i e s h o l d e i t h e r (1) by d e f i n i t i o n ( e q u a t i o n s 23 t h r o u g h 3 0 ) , (2) t o a l l o w no l a y o f f s ( e q u a t i o n 31 3 4 ) , o r (3) t o a l l o w no d e m o t i o n s ( e q u a t i o n s 35 t h r o u g h NI  0  N2  > 0  (24)  N3  > 0  (25)  N4  > 0  (26)  RI  > 0  (27)  R2  > 0  (28)  R3  > 0  (29)  R4  > 0  (30)  •  (23)  38).  through  Dl  > 0  (31)  D2  > 0  (32)  D3  > 0  (33)  D4  > 0  (34)  SI  > 0  (35)  S2  > 0  (36)  S3  > 0  (37)  S4  > 0  (38)  In a l l c a s e s , t h e e q u a t i o n s  l i n k i n g rank d i s t r i b u t i o n s at  any  i n i t i a l t i m e ( t ) and a l a t e r t i m e ( t ^ ) u s e h i s t o r i c a l l y d e t e r m i n e d r a t e s o f p r o m o t i o n and s e p a r a t i o n i n c o n j u n c t i o n w i t h a c t u a l c e l l at t year.  to p r o j e c t the base p o p u l a t i o n s  forward  populations  one t i m e u n i t , u s u a l l y  U n d e r t h e e q u i l i b r i u m a s s u m p t i o n i m p l i e d i n t h e name o f  models, the s i z e o f the t a r g e t d i s t r i b u t i o n a t t . i s equal  one  these  to the t o t a l  d i s t r i b u t i o n a t t , i . e . the f a c u l t y does not grow. Q  A p p l i c a t i o n o f e q u i l i b r i u m m o d e l s has i n d i c a t e d t h a t , f o r e x a m p l e , ".  . . conservation  r e q u i r e m e n t s t h a t m u s t h o l d f o r a p p o i n t m e n t , promo-  t i o n and a t t r i t i o n o f f a c u l t y and q u o t a r e s t r i c t i o n s on t h e t o t a l number o f f a c u l t y s e v e r e l y r e s t r i c t the choice o f independent v a r i a b l e s . . . [and]  . . . e x t r a p o l a t i o n o f c u r r e n t Berkeley data to the years  w h e r e we e x p e c t e q u i l i b r i u m s t o s e t i n i n d i c a t e s t h a t t h e r e a r e  1975-80 no  f e a s i b l e e q u i l i b r i a f o r current appointment p o l i c i e s " ( O l i v e r , 1969:3). The g e n e r a l m e s s a g e p r o v i d e d  by a n a l y s i s w i t h e q u i l i b r i u m m o d e l s seems  c l e a r e n o u g h , h o w e v e r , t h e r e r e p o r t e d l y may p r e c i s i o n (Hopkins, Markov Chain  be p r o b l e m s w i t h t h e i r  1974).  Models  Superior modelling  o f a p p o i n t m e n t d i s t r i b u t i o n s i s deemed t o  be  79 p o s s i b l e t h r o u g h d e f i n i t i o n o f ". . . t h e s t a t e s ( i . e . c a t e g o r i e s o f f a c u l t y members) i n a way t h a t i s b o t h u s e f u l f o r a n a l y z i n g c h a n g e s i n p o l i c y and m e a n i n g f u l as a d e s c r i p t i o n o f i n d i v i d u a l b e h a v i o r " 1974:400).  (Hopkins,  T h i s i n t u r n r e q u i r e s more s t a t e s than used i n e q u i l i b r i u m  m o d e l s , a n d m o r e t r a n s i t i o n s s u c h a s ". . . s e r v i c e - d e p e n d e n t  promotion  r a t e s f o r n o n - t e n u r e f a c u l t y , . . . a n d t h e r a n k d i s t r i b u t i o n o f new appointments" (Hopkins,  1974:401).  M u l t i p l e s t a t e s c a n be accommodated r e a d i l y i n Markov c h a i n models i n w h i c h t h e a p p o i n t m e n t d i s t r i b u t i o n a t t ^ i s d e p e n d e n t on t h e d i s t r i bution a t t  a n d t h e two d i s t r i b u t i o n s a r e l i n k e d b y a s e t o f t r a n s i t i o n  p r o b a b i l i t i e s (Draper  and Klingman, 1967).  With c o n s i d e r a b l e d e t a i l about t h e f a c t o r s and t r a n s i t i o n s c o n t r i b u t i n g t o a f u t u r e d i s t r i b u t i o n , Markov chains a r e s t o c h a s t i c .  As  s u c h t h e y a r e members o f t h e same g e n e r a l  flow  class as equilibrium  models, b u t d i f f e r from t h e simpler c u r v e - f i t t i n g approach used i n t h e percentage point increase  technique.  Brown s t a t e s t h e k e y a s s u m p t i o n s o f a M a r k o v c h a i n when a p p l i e d t o t h e movement o f p e r s o n n e l : (1)  The M a r k o v i a n axiom s t a t e s t h a t an i n d i v i d u a l ' s p a s t h i s t o r y h a s no i m p a c t o n h i s f u t u r e movement t h r o u g h t h e s t a t u s t h a t he p r e s e n t l y o c c u p i e s .  except Its  main f u n c t i o n i s seen as a s i m p l i f y i n g one s i n c e a model which acknowledged t h e u n i q u e h i s t o r y o f e v e r y i n d i v i d u a l would be e x t r e m e l y (2)  complex.  T h e i n d e p e n d e n c e a s s u m p t i o n s t a t e s t h a t moves o n t h e p a r t o f o n e i n d i v i d u a l a r e made i n d e p e n d e n t l y moves o n t h e p a r t o f o t h e r s .  of  80 (3)  The h o m o g e n e i t y a s s u m p t i o n s t a t e s t h a t a l l p e r s o n s a r e a l i k e i n t e r m s o f t h e i r p r o p e n s i t y t o move.  (4)  The s t a t i o n a r i t y a s s u m p t i o n t h a t s t a t e s t h a t p r o b a b i l i t i e s o f movement f r o m one s t a t u s a n o t h e r do n o t v a r y o v e r t i m e .  the  to  S i n c e i t m u s t be  a c k n o w l e d g e d t h a t no p e r f e c t l y s t a t i o n a r y e x i s t s , t h i s a x i o m m u s t be r e g a r d e d  as  process  an  idealization. ( B r o w n , 1 9 7 5 : 1 4 5 and The i n d e p e n d e n c e a s s u m p t i o n may  be a c c e p t e d  s i n c e u n i v e r s i t i e s do  n o t r e q u i r e a c h a n g e i n r a n k o r d u r a t i o n o f a p p o i n t m e n t t o be  contingent  upon any c h a n g e f o r a n o t h e r i n d i v i d u a l ( M i c h a e l s , 1 9 7 4 ) , h e n c e , c h a n g e s may  be c o n s i d e r e d  t o be i n d e p e n d e n t .  On t h e c o n t r a r y ,  t r a d i t i o n s and p r a c t i c e s o f u n i v e r s i t i e s p l a c e c o n s i d e r a b l e p r o m o t i o n and t e n u r e  146)  those the  s t r e s s on  b e i n g r e l a t e d t o t h e i n d i v i d u a l (CAUT, 1 9 7 9 ) .  How-  ever, the a p p l i c a t i o n o f tenure o r rank quotas would cause t h i s assumption t o be v i o l a t e d . One o f t h e e a r l i e s t a p p l i c a t i o n s o f a M a r k o v t r a n s i t i o n m a t r i x  was  by Rowe, Wagner and W e a t h e r s b y as p a r t o f t h e F o r d F o u n d a t i o n ' s p r o g r a m of research  in university administration.  They d i v i d e d the  w h i c h c h a r a c t e r i z e f a c u l t y d i s t r i b u t i o n i n t o ".  variables  . . (a) those  variables  which the d e c i s i o n maker can d i r e c t l y c o n t r o l , c a l l e d c o n t r o l  variables  and d e s i g n a t e d  by t h e symbol u; (b) t h o s e e n d o g e n o u s v a r i a b l e s w h i c h c a n -  n o t be c o n t r o l l e d by t h e d e c i s i o n m a k e r , c a l l e d s t a t e v a r i a b l e s designated  by t h e symbol x ; a n d  (c) those exogenous v a r i a b l e s  upon the s y s t e m , w h i c h are d e s i g n a t e d  by t h e symbol z . "  In t h e u n i v e r s i t y c o n t e x t , t h e s t a t e v a r i a b l e s and  and impinging  (1970:4). control  81 v a r i a b l e s , x and u, . . . r e f e r to the four academic i n s t r u c t i o n a l ranks o f a l l d i s c i p l i n e s : (1) f u l l p r o f e s s o r , (2) a s s o c i a t e professor, (3) a s s i s t a n t professor, and (4) i n s t r u c t o r , w h e r e x ( i ) a r e t h e number o f f a c u l t y o f e a c h r a n k c o n t i n u i n g a t t h e end o f academic year i , and u ( i ) a r e t h e number o f f a c u l t y o f e a c h r a n k h i r e d a t t h e b e g i n ning o f year i . (1970:5) By d e f i n i n g , m a t r i x " f " t o p r o v i d e f o r r e t e n t i o n w i t h i n a r a n k (f.. .) o r p r o m o t i o n t o n e x t r a n k ( f . ^ ^ ) a n d v e c t o r " g " t o p r o v i d e f o r +  d i f f e r e n t i a l r e t e n t i o n o f newly h i r e d personnel, the r e l a t i o n s h i p s are then  written: r  x^t+l)  12 0  f  f  x (t+l)  ll 0  x (t+l)  0  22 0  x (t+l)  0  0  2  3  4  f  f  23  33 0 f  0  x-, ( t )  0  x (t)  f  34  x (t)  f  44„  2  3  11 0  9  +  0  0  0  (t)  U]  922 0  u (t)  0  •o  u (t)  0  0  2  933  0  3  J  44-  . 4 u  ( t )  -  (Rowe, e t a l ., 1 9 7 0 : 6 ) The a u t h o r s  state  . . . i n o t h e r w o r d s , t h e number o f f u l l p r o f e s s o r s in the system a t the end o f next year i s a f u n c t i o n o f t h e number o f f u l l p r o f e s s o r s c o m p l e t i n g t h i s y e a r ( p e r s i s t e n c e ) , t h e number o f a s s o c i a t e p r o f e s s o r s c o m p l e t i n g t h i s y e a r ( p r o m o t i o n ) , a n d t h e number o f f u l l p r o f e s s o r s h i r e d t h i s y e a r . We assume t h a t (1) no f a c u l t y member i s p r o m o t e d more t h a n o n e r a n k i n e a c h y e a r , ( 2 ) no f a c u l t y member i s d e m o t e d t o a l o w e r r a n k , a n d ( 3 ) no n e w l y h i r e d f a c u l t y member i s promoted w i t h i n the f i r s t year o f h i s o r her c o n t r a c t . T h e r e have b e e n v e r y f e w e x c e p t i o n s t o t h e s e a s s u m p tions i n the recent history o f the U n i v e r s i t y o f Cal i form" a. (Rowe, e t a l ., 1 9 7 0 : 6 ) H o p k i n s ( 1 9 7 4 , 1 975) a p p l i e d a M a r k o v model t o two s c h o o l s Stanford University.  T h e model was b a s e d on a 1 7 - s t a t e t r a n s i t i o n  within  82 matrix.  (See Table V ) . The i n i t i a l  seven s t a t e s r e l a t e d to years o f p r e -  tenure appointment, with p r o b a b i l i t i e s o f separation and a w a r d o f t e n u r e r e f e r t o tenured  s p e c i f i e d f o r each s t a t e .  from t h e i n s t i t u t i o n  The next seven s t a t e s  f a c u l t y , w i t h s t a t e s d e f i n e d by a g e b r a c k e t s  s p e c i f i c p r o b a b i l i t i e s o f r e s i g n a t i o n , death and r e t i r e m e n t  and s t a t e identified.  The f i n a l t h r e e s t a t e s r e f e r t o t h o s e s e p a r a t i n g d u e t o r e s i g n a t i o n , retirement o r death. The S t a n f o r d model i s made r e l a t i v e l y s i m p l e  by t h e r e l a t i v e  u n i f o r m i t y o f u n i v e r s i t y pol i c y about academic a p p o i n t m e n t s ( B l o o m f i e l d , 1 975). reasonable  The model does n o t a d d r e s s rank as a v a r i a b l e , a  a p p r o a c h s i n c e new a p p o i n t m e n t s a t S t a n f o r d a r e n o r m a l l y a t  the rank o f A s s i s t a n t P r o f e s s o r , and s i n c e promotion t o A s s o c i a t e f e s s o r g e n e r a l l y c o i n c i d e s w i t h award o f t e n u r e .  Pro-  S u c h c o n d i t i o n s do n o t  u n i v e r s a l l y a p p l y t o p u b l i c u n i v e r s i t i e s , n e i t h e r i n Canada n o r i n t h e United States  ( B o l t e e t a l . , 1977 ).  To e x t e n d t h e S t a n f o r d f r a m e w o r k i n a p p l y i n g M a r k o v m o d e l s t o a more c o m p l e x p o l i c y e n v i r o n m e n t , B l o o m f i e l d c o m p i l e d matrix to represent  a 161-state  t h e e n t i r e Oregon S t a t e U n i v e r s i t y .  Markov  (See Table V I ) .  F i v e b a s i c v a r i a b l e s a r e u s e d i n t h e m o d e l , w i t h f r o m two t o f o u r p o s s i b i l i t i e s f o r each. tenured  F i r s t , tenure status i s binary, s t a t e s being  o r non-tenured.  Second, academic rank has f o u r  either  possibilities:  I n s t r u c t o r , A s s i s t a n t P r o f e s s o r , A s s o c i a t e P r o f e s s o r , and Full T h i r d , t h e number o f y e a r s i n r a n k i s b r o k e n down i n t o f o u r  Professor.  conditions:  0-3, 4 - 6 , 7-9, 10 a n d o v e r . . F o u r t h , t h e a g e o f a f a c u l t y member i s d e s c r i b e d as one o f f o u r p o s s i b i l i t i e s : over.  0-39, 40-49, 50-59, and 60 o r  F i f t h , t h e d u r a t i o n o f an a p p o i n t m e n t i n t h e y e a r s o f s e r v i c e i s  a b i n a r y s t a t e , b e i n g e i t h e r 0-3 o r 4 o r m o r e .  Taken together t h e  83 TABLE V S T A T E D E F I N I T I O N S FOR THE STANFORD FACULTY FLOW MODEL (Hopkins,. 1 975)  STATE  DESCRIPTION  1  Nontenure - F i r s t year  2  Nontenure - Second year  3  Nontenure - T h i r d year  4  Nontenure - Fourth year  5  Nontenure - F i f t h year  6  Nontenure - S i x t h year  7  Nontenure - Seventh year  8  T e n u r e - Age 30 t o 34  9  T e n u r e - Age 35 t o 39  10  T e n u r e - Age 4 0 t o 44  11  T e n u r e - Age 45 t o 4 9  12  T e n u r e - Age 50 t o 54  13  T e n u r e - Age 55 t o 5 9  14  T e n u r e - Age 6 0 t o 64  15  Retirement  16  Resignation  17  Death  84 T A B L E VI S T A T E D E F I N I T I O N S FOR THE OREGON S T A T E U N I V E R S I T Y COMPREHENSIVE FACULTY FLOW MODEL ( B l o o m f i e l d , 1976)  VARIABLES  CATEGORIES  NUMBER  Tenure Status  Nontenured, Tenured  2  Rank  Instructor, Assistant Professor,  4  Associate Professor,  Professor  Y e a r s i n Rank  0 - 3 , 4 - 6 , 7-9, 10+  4  Age  0 - 3 9 , 4 0 - 4 9 , 5 0 - 5 9 , 60+  4  Years o f S e r v i c e  0 - 3 , 4+  2  c o m p l e t e model p r o v i d e s f o r 256 p o s s i b l e s t a t e s , however, B l o o m f i e l d s i m p l i f i e d i t t o 160 u s i n g H o p k i n s ' c r i t e r i o n o f m e a n i n g f u l n e s s of individual behavior.  The years o f s e r v i c e v a r i a b l e f o r  i n terms  tenured  f a c u l t y was r e m o v e d ( 6 4 s t a t e s ) a s was t h e p o s s i b i l i t y o f u n t e n u r e d p r o f e s s o r s (32 s t a t e s ) .  F i n a l l y , one s t a t e t o absorb  those  f r o m t h e i n s t i t u t i o n was p r o v i d e d t o r e s u l t i n t h e f i n a l  full  separating  161-state  formulation. Assuming 95% replacement  o f l o s s e s , t h e model p r o j e c t e d r a n k  d i s t r i b u t i o n s w h i c h show a s t e e p r e d u c t i o n i n t h e number o f A s s i s t a n t P r o f e s s o r s , a s t e a d y i n c r e a s e i n t h e number o f F u l l P r o f e s s o r s , a n d a peaking well.  i n t h e number o f A s s o c i a t e P r o f e s s o r s b e f o r e t h e y d e c r e a s e a s (See Figure 7 ) . Although  the p r o j e c t i o n s a r e over a twenty-year  h o r i z o n , B l o o m f i e l d r e p o r t s t h a t "...  uncertainties with regard to  enrolments and economic c o n d i t i o n s f o r t h e f i r s t t e n years a r e n o t q u i t e so s e v e r e , a n d t h e c o n t i n u i t y c h a r a c t e r i z i n g t h e p e r s o n n e l  patterns o f a  85 FIGURE 7 RANK D I S T R I B U T I O N FOR TENURED AND TENURE-TRACK FACULTY OREGON S T A T E U N I V E R S I T Y 1975 TO 1995 ( B l o o m f i e l d , 1976)  FACULTY HEADCOUNT 500  400  300 Assistant  Professor  200-  100-  <  ; Instructor  l|—-i  1 975  1  1  1  r-—I-  1980  ,  r  1  1  r  1985 Years  r  '  •  1  1990  •  •  >  •  1  1995  u n i v e r s i t y e s t a b l i s h e s a t e n - y e a r f o r e c a s t as a r e a l i s t i c a n d  credible  b a s i s f o r m a n a g e r i a l d e c i s i o n s . " (1976:21 ). The O r e g o n S t a t e a n a l y s e s s u p p o r t t h e g e n e r a l f i n d i n g s o f H i g b e e , L a S a l l e , and O l i v e r , i n p a r t i c u l a r t h a t "...  none but t h e most d r a s t i c  and a b r u p t c h a n g e i n p e r s o n n e l p o l i c i e s w i l l m a t e r i a l l y a f f e c t  staffing  d i s t r i b u t i o n s i n t h e immediate t h r e e to f i v e y e a r p e r i o d , the zone  from  f i v e t o t e n y e a r s i n t h e f u t u r e c o n s t i t u t e s a v e r y f r u i t f u l and e f f e c t i v e planning horizon f o r a n a l y z i n g impacts o f present f a c u l t y s t a f f i n g p o l i c i e s " ( B l o o m f i e l d , 1 976:21 ). All the a p p l i c a t i o n s o f f a c u l t y flow m o d e l l i n g reviewed to t h i s p o i n t produce d i s t r i b u t i o n s o f f a c u l t y rank as t h e i r end p r o d u c t . S c h r o e d e r (1973) i n c o r p o r a t e d a f a c u l t y f l o w c o n d i t i o n i n t o a r e s o u r c e p l a n n i n g model f o r s t u d i e s o f u n i v e r s i t y b u d g e t i n g .  The f a c u l t y f l o w  c o n d i t i o n was a p p l i e d a s a c o n s t r a i n t on t h e g e n e r a l s o l u t i o n t o t h e b u d g e t i n g problem, and took a M a r k o v i a n form.  As s u c h , t h e S c h r o e d e r  a p p l i c a t i o n makes a n o v e l a t t e m p t to a c h i e v e a p a r t i c u l a r r a n k d i s t r i b u t i o n as a f u n c t i o n o f u n i v e r s i t y b u d g e t , t e a c h i n g l o a d , s u p p o r t s t a f f , hiring, etc. Summary o f F a c u l t y F l o w  Models  T h r e e k i n d s o f a n a l y t i c a l m o d e l s have been u s e d t o p r o j e c t b u t i o n s o f a c a d e m i c r a n k o r a p p o i n t m e n t f r o m a g g r e g a t e d a t a a n d may summarized  be  i n terms o f (1) the c o n c e p t s used t o c a t e g o r i z e a p p o i n t m e n t s ;  and, (2) the form o f the m a t h e m a t i c a l r e l a t i o n s h i p s employed VII).  distri-  (see Table  87 TABLE V I I A SUMMARY O F . F A C U L T Y FLOW MODELS  MODEL TYPE  C A T E G O R I Z A T I O N METHOD NUMBER OF BASIC V A R I A B L E S CONCEPTS  MATHEMATICAL R E L A T I O N S H I P S NUMBER OF NUMBER OF RELATIONS FORM OF R E L A T I O N S STATES  Percent Growth  One  Rank  Low (4)  Low (4)  Curve f i t t i n g ; Proportional Change i n S t a t e Size  Equilibrium  One  Rank o r Tenure  Low (3-10)  Low (3-10)  Causal; InterS t a t e Flow Rates  Markov  Four o r Five  Rank Duration Tenure Age Service  High (17-161)  High (17-161)  Causal; T r a n s i tion Probabilities  The summary t a b l e shows t h a t two o f t h e t h r e e t y p e s o f m o d e l ( i . e . p e r c e n t growth and e q u i l i b r i u m ) a r e based on a s i n g l e v a r i a b l e f o r c a t e g o r i z a t i o n and u s e small numbers o f s t a t e s i n c o m b i n a t i o n numbers o f e q u a t i o n s  o f small  t o r e l a t e rank o r tenure d i s t r i b u t i o n s across  time.  In c o n t r a s t , M a r k o v m o d e l s u s e l a r g e r n u m b e r s o f v a r i a b l e s a n d s t a t e s , t h e r e f o r e , t h e n u m b e r o f r e l a t i o n s h i p s i s a l s o much l a r g e r . A N A L Y S I S OF FACULTY FLOW MODELS The g e n e r a l  d e c i s i o n paradigm (Weathersby, 1975) provides  categories o f elements t o describe d e c i s i o n s t r u c t u r e .  This  section  examines t h e three types o f f a c u l t y flow models i n terms o f those categories to develop  nine  nine  summary p r o f i l e s o f t h e m o d e l s i n t e r m s o f t h e  s t r u c t u r a l elements o f d e c i s i o n .  88  Control  Variables Variables manipulated in attempting  processes the  to simulate  f a c u l t y flow  e a c h f o c u s on t h e t r a n s i t i o n r a t e s as a means o f c o n t r o l l i n g  flow. In t h e p e r c e n t a g e p o i n t i n c r e a s e m o d e l , H o l m e s and von  Zur-  Muehlen (1979) v a r i e d the p e r c e n t a g e growth o r d e c l i n e o f each rank p r o p o r t i o n t o p r o j e c t f u t u r e f a c u l t y r a n k d i s t r i b u t i o n s . The alternatives reported are i d e n t i c a l conceptually, among them b e i n g o n l y t h e s i z e o f m a n i p u l a t i o n or d e c l i n e f o r each o f the f o u r rank  the  three  differences  o f the r a t e o f growth  proportions.  E q u i l i b r i u m flow models have been the s u b j e c t o f work v a r y i n g v i r t u a l l y a l l t h e t r a n s i t i o n s among e q u i l i b r i u m s t a t e s .  L a S a l l e (1972)  v a r i e d the p r o p o r t i o n awarded tenure, the r a t e o f s e p a r a t i o n o f  tenured  f a c u l t y , and r e d u c e d t h e number o f new a p p o i n t m e n t s .  (1972)  Pardasani  i n v e s t i g a t e d r a t e s o f p r o m o t i o n , and r a t e s o f r e s i g n a t i o n .  Oliver  ( 1 9 6 9 ) c o n t r o l l e d t h e r a t e o f new a p p o i n t m e n t s , t h e m i x t u r e o f a p p o i n t m e n t s , the r a t e o f award o f tenure,  rate of retirement  new for  tenured  f a c u l t y and r a t e s o f r e s i g n a t i o n f o r n o n t e n u r e d f a c u l t y . Markov models a l s o have been used b a s i c a l l y to a n a l y z e t r a n s i t i o n rates.  H o p k i n s ( 1 9 7 4 , 1975)  examined d i f f e r e n t r a t e s o f promotion to  t e n u r e , d i f f e r e n t d i s t r i b u t i o n s o f t e n u r e among n e w l y a p p o i n t e d early retirement,  a f f i r m a t i v e a c t i o n p o l i c i e s , and p o s s i b l e  in o v e r a l l f a c u l t y s i z e .  Bloomfield  reductions  (1976) i n v e s t i g a t e d promotion r a t e s ,  r a t e s o f a w a r d i n g t e n u r e , s e p a r a t i o n r a t e s , and t h e number o f new appointments.  faculty,  faculty  89 State  Variables The s t a t e v a r i a b l e s u s e d t o d e s c r i b e t h e o u t c o m e s o f f l o w m o d e l s  have been reviewed Models.  a n d s u m m a r i z e d i n T a b l e V I I , A Summary o f F a c u l t y F l o w  The v a r i a b l e s used t o c a t e g o r i z e f a c u l t y c o n s t i t u t e t h e s t a t e  v a r i a b l e s f o r f a c u l t y flow models, i . e . academic rank, tenure  status,  duration o f term appointment, age, years o f s e r v i c e . Exogenous V a r i a b l e s The u n i v e r s e o f v a r i a b l e s n o t i n c l u d e d i n t h e c a t e g o r i e s o f c o n t r o l a n d s t a t e v a r i a b l e s o f f a c u l t y f l o w m o d e l s i s immense.  The v a l u e  o f t h i s c a t e g o r y w i l l be i n t h e c o n t r a s t b e t w e e n m o d e l s o f a n a l y s i s a n d m o d e l s o f d e c i s i o n , when b i a s i n t h e d e s i g n o f r e s e a r c h f o r d e c i s i o n c a n be i d e n t i f i e d a s l e a v i n g o u t v a r i a b l e s r e l e v a n t t o d e c i s i o n m a k i n g . Observing  Systems  As F i n c h e r ( 1 9 7 5 ) d e s c r i b e d , t h e s o u r c e o f i n f o r m a t i o n f o r v i r t u a l l y a l l f a c u l t y flow models i s i n s t i t u t i o n a l records about f a c u l t y members.  B l o o m f i e l d ( 1 9 7 6 ) was a b l e t o a c q u i r e d a t a f o r h i s m o d e l  the personnel  i n f o r m a t i o n system a t Oregon S t a t e U n i v e r s i t y .  That  from system  c o n t a i n e d a l l t h e d a t a e l e m e n t s r e q u i r e d f o r t h e model i n m a c h i n e readable form. data bases"  Higbee (1975) c i t e s the e x i s t e n c e o f " r e l a t i v e l y complete  ( p . 50) a s o n e o f f o u r c o n d i t i o n s n e c e s s a r y  f a c u l t y flow model, although  t o implement a  he d o e s n o t r e p o r t t h e e x a c t d a t a b a s e s  used i n h i s r e s e a r c h . O l i v e r (1969) r e p o r t s t h e use o f t h r e e sources o f i n f o r m a t i o n : (1) an i n t e r n a l u n i v e r s i t y r e p o r t t i t l e d " P r o m o t i o n S c h e d u l e s S c a l e s " ; ( 2 ) a r e p o r t by B e r k e l e y ' s  and S a l a r y  president to the university's  Committee on Finance and on E d u c a t i o n a l  P o l i c y ; and, (3) the i n d i v i d u a l  d a t a c a r d s c o n t a i n i n g i n f o r m a t i o n a b o u t f a c u l t y members on t h e B e r k e l e y campus.  T h e f i r s t two r e p o r t s s u p p l i e d t a b l e s w h i c h t h e m s e l v e s  were  b a s e d on d a t a c o n t a i n e d i n t h e f a c u l t y d a t a c a r d s . L a S a l l e (1972) used h y p o t h e t i c a l data t o examine t h e b e h a v i o r o f the f a c u l t y f l o w formulas from a mathematical  p o i n t o f view.  While h i s  c a s e s may h a v e been b a s e d i n r e a l i t y , he d o e s n o t r e p o r t t h a t b a s i s . Von Z u r - M u e h l e n (1 9 7 7 ) a n d H o l m e s a n d v o n Z u r - M u e h l e n  (1979)  b a s e d t h e i r a n a l y s i s on i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d i n t h e " U n i v e r s i t y F u l l t i m e T e a c h i n g S t a f f S y s t e m " m a i n t a i n e d by t h e - P o s t - s e c o n d a r y  Education  S e c t i o n o f the E d u c a t i o n , S c i e n c e and C u l t u r e D i v i s i o n o f S t a t i s t i c s Canada.  T h a t s y s t e m c o n t a i n s i n f o r m a t i o n s u b m i t t e d a n n u a l l y by  u n i v e r s i t i e s and c o l l e g e s a c r o s s Canada; t h e r e p o r t s s u b m i t t e d a r e c o p i e s o f s t a t i s t i c a l d a t a a b o u t f a c u l t y members i n t h e i n s t i t u t i o n s ' own records o f f i c e s . Value  System With t h e e x c e p t i o n o f t h e goal-programming  Schroeder  f o r m u l a t i o n u s e d by  (1 9 7 3 ) , a l l t h e f a c u l t y f l o w m o d e l s s u m m a r i z e d i n t h i s  study  sought p r i m a r i l y t o s i m u l a t e t h e e f f e c t s o f one o r a n o t h e r c o n t r o l v a r i a b l e change.  In some c a s e s ( e . g . O l i v e r , 1 9 6 9 ; H i g b e e , 1 9 7 5 )  a t t e m p t s w e r e made t o d e t e r m i n e w h e t h e r t h e o u t c o m e s o f s i m u l a t i o n s c o u l d be f e a s i b l e i n t e r m s o f o n e o r a n o t h e r c o n s t r a i n t s u c h a s l i m i t e d t o t a l f a c u l t y . However, i n none o f t h e r e p o r t e d a p p l i c a t i o n s i s t h e r e a r e l a t i v e value attached to any a l t e r n a t i v e s t a t e . A l t h o u g h t h e r e p o r t e d a p p l i c a t i o n s do n o t a t t a c h a v a l u e t o a n y p a r t i c u l a r a l t e r n a t i v e s t a t e , t h e y do v a l u e i m p l i c i t l y t h e b a s i c n o t i o n s o f f a c u l t y rank, tenure and promotion. f o r a n a l y s i s , an u n s t a t e d a s s u m p t i o n  By a d o p t i n g t h o s e t e r m s a s b a s e s i s made t h a t t h o s e s t a t e s a n d  91 processes Causal  a r e and w i l l continue  t o be  important.  Relationships The c a u s a l r e l a t i o n s h i p s i n f a c u l t y f l o w m o d e l s a r e c r y s t a l l i z e d  mathematically  i n the r e l a t i o n s h i p s l i n k i n g s t a t e s across time.  Those  r e l a t i o n s h i p s a r e s u m m a r i z e d i n T a b l e V I I , "A Summary o f F a c u l t y Models."  They a r e : (1) p r o p o r t i o n a l  Flow  change i n s t a t e s i z e ; (2) i n t e r -  s t a t e flow r a t e s ; a n d , (3) t r a n s i t i o n p r o b a b i l i t i e s . The f i r s t technique  u s e s a g l o b a l c u r v e - f i t t i n g a p p r o a c h , w h e r e a s t h e l a t t e r two  i n c o r p o r a t e more d e t a i l e d e x p r e s s i o n s  l i n k i n g states through s p e c i f i c  transitions. Constrai nts Constraints a p p l i e d to f a c u l t y flow analyses addressed  t y p i c a l l y have  t h e maximum a n d minimum r a n g e o f c o n t r o l v a r i a b l e s a n d some  f o r m o f o v e r a l l c o n s t r a i n t on a summary s t a t e v a r i a b l e . is typical i n requiring that: (2) r a t e s o f s e p a r a t i o n  (1) a l l rank populations  Pardasani  (1972)  be n o n - n e g a t i v e ;  be n o n - n e g a t i v e ; ( 3 ) new a p p o i n t m e n t s b e n o n -  n e g a t i v e ; a n d , (4) p r o m o t i o n r a t e s be n o n - n e g a t i v e .  The e q u i l i b r i u m  assumption used by O l i v e r (1969) and Higbee (1975) i s t y p i c a l i n r e q u i r ing that the total s i z e o f f a c u l t y population  be f i x e d a c r o s s  time.  T h i s i s t h e same r e q u i r e m e n t a s i m p o s e d by Holmes a n d v o n Z u r - M u e h l e n (1979) f o r t h e t o t a l o f a l l f a c u l t y a c r o s s Therefore,  Canada.  the system o f c o n s t r a i n t s i n f a c u l t y flow models  b a s i c a l l y r e q u i r e s t h a t c o n t r o l v a r i a b l e s t a k e on n o n - n e g a t i v e v a l u e s a n d t h a t some b a s i c p r i n c i p l e o f c o n s e r v a t i o n  apply.  Time  Horizon The t i m e h o r i z o n s  used i n f a c u l t y f l o w models range from f i v e to  t w e n t y y e a r s f o r p r o j e c t i o n s , b u t a r e b a s e d on y e a r - t o - y e a r  calculations  o f annual rank or appointment-type d i s t r i b u t i o n . B l o o m f i e l d  (1 976)  lays  o u t p r o j e c t i o n s o v e r a t w e n t y y e a r h o r i z o n ; h o w e v e r , he n o t e s t h a t s e c o n d d e c a d e may  be s e e n t o i n c l u d e c o n s i d e r a b l e  uncertainty.  the  Holmes  and von Z u r - M u e h l e n f o r e c a s t t h e r a n k d i s t r i b u t i o n a t C a n a d i a n u n i v e r s i t i e s o v e r the ten y e a r p e r i o d , 1975-76 to 1984-85. made p r o j e c t i o n s o v e r t h e t e n y e a r h o r i z o n 1974 Stanford  Hopkins (1974,  t o 1984  1975)  i n h i s work a t  University.  Uncertainty  Structure  The m a j o r i t y o f f l o w m o d e l s u n d e r a n a l y s i s a s s u m e v e r y u n c e r t a i n t y i n t h e i r c a u s a l r e l a t i o n s h i p s and i n p u t d a t a .  little  Taylor  and  S c o t t ( 1 9 7 3 ) r e p o r t t h e use o f a M a r k o v i a n model w h i c h v a r i e s t h e tion p r o b a b i l i t i e s randomly.  transi-  They argue t h a t the f i x e d r a t e s o f t r a n s i -  t i o n i n e q u i l i b r i u m m o d e l s and m o s t M a r k o v m o d e l s may  be  unrealistically  stable. A l l t h e m o d e l s a s s u m e t h a t t h e s t a t e v a r i a b l e s o f t e n u r e and a r e s t a b l e , e v e n t h o u g h v a r i o u s p r o p o n e n t s c a l l f o r an end t o t h e s y s t e m ( s e e , f o r e x a m p l e , S m i t h and A s s o c i a t e s , 1 9 7 3 ) ; i n t h a t t h e y may  be s a i d t o " v a l u e " c u r r e n t s t a t e v a r i a b l e s .  rank tenure  regard,  That i n t e r p r e t a t i o n  i s not, however, c o n s i s t e n t with the d e f i n i t i o n o f value system used Summary o f  here.  Analysis  Applying the general d e c i s i o n paradigm to the three types  of  f a c u l t y flow models provides a p r o f i l e o f f a c u l t y flow models which indicates several things.  (See T a b l e V I I I ) .  Control variables i n  flow  TABLE V I I I SUMMARY P R O F I L E OF FACULTY FLOW GENERAL D E C I S I O N PARADIGM ELEMENT Control  Variables  FACULTY FLOW  MODELS MODELS  V e r y Few: Net D i s t r i b u t i o n S i z e Standard Personnel T r a n s i t i o n s  State Variables  Few: D e p e n d e n t on S t a n d a r d C o n t r a c t s ( e . g . Rank, T e n u r e , D u r a t i o n , e t c . ) All Internal  Exogenous V a r i a b l e s  Many O m i t t e d Stable  Observing  Passive/Singular Routinized Based i n I n s t i t u t i o n a l Records H i s t o r i c a l Data S i l e n t on C e n t r a l i z a t i o n  Value Causal  Systems  Systems Linkages  None Simp! e Mathematical (Pre-determined)  Constraints  Range o f S t a n d a r d P r a c t i c e (e.g. P o s i t i v e Promotion Rates) Conservation  Time  Arbitrary  Horizon  Uncertai nty  D i m e n s i o n s Known Deterministic  models f o c u s i m p l i c i t l y ( c u r v e - f i t t i n g ) o r e x p l i c i t l y ( c a u s a l mode) on t r a n s i t i o n r a t e s o r o v e r a l l n u m b e r s a s means o f i m p l e m e n t i n g p o l i c y changes.  The s t a t e s d e f i n e d i n f l o w models a r e s i m p l e , u s u a l l y d e p e n d i n g  on a s m a l l n u m b e r o f v a r i a b l e s .  F l o w m o d e l s a r e b a s e d on i n s t i t u t i o n a l  data and r a r e l y i n c o r p o r a t e goal c r i t e r i a .  The causal r e l a t i o n s h i p s i n  f l o w models a r e g e n e r a l l y t r e a t e d as being s t a b l e and a r e d e s c r i b e d i n r e l a t i v e l y simple mathematical terms o f d i r e c t o r d e t e r m i n i s t i c form. The c o n s t r a i n t s o n f a c u l t y f l o w m o d e l s a r e s i m p l e r e q u i r i n g t h a t c o n t r o l v a r i a b l e s be n o n - n e g a t i v e ( i . e . s t a n d a r d of a principle o f conservation  p r a c t i c e s ) a n d t h a t some f o r m  apply. SUMMARY  This chapter  has i n t r o d u c e d a n d e x a m i n e d t h e n o t i o n s o f f a c u l t y  rank d i s t r i b u t i o n and f a c u l t y flow with s p e c i a l reference  to a family  o f a n a l y t i c a l m o d e l s u s e d t o p r o j e c t f a c u l t y r a n k d i s t r i b u t i o n . The types and c o n d i t i o n s o f academic appointments were r e v i e w e d and a s i m p l e f r a m e w o r k e s t a b l i s h e d f o r c a t e g o r i z i n g f a c u l t y on t h e b a s i s o f a c a d e m i c rank and t h e d u r a t i o n o f appointment. The r e l a t i o n o f a c a d e m i c r a n k a n d t h e p r i m a r y u n i v e r s i t y were examined. w e r e f o u n d t o be w e a k , contradictory findings.  bases o f a  The l i n k s between rank and u n i v e r s i t y with l i t t l e evidence,  u n c e r t a i n v a l i d i t y and  The r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n r a n k a n d u n i v e r s i t y  i n p u t s was e x a m i n e d f r o m a f i s c a l v i e w p o i n t .  In t h a t r e g a r d , t h e r e i s a  m o d e r a t e l y s t r o n g l i n k between rank and f i s c a l r e q u i r e m e n t s ; r a n k i n g g r o u p o f f a c u l t y w i l l r e q u i r e more money t h a n a l o w e r group o f comparable s i z e .  outputs  a higher ranking  95 F a c u l t y f l o w models were i d e n t i f i e d as a c l a s s o f m a t h e m a t i c a l c r e a t i o n s used t o examine and p r o j e c t the e v o l u t i o n o f f a c u l t y rank distribution.  Three t y p e s were d i s c u s s e d :  E q u i l i b r i u m , and Markov  Chains.  Percentage Increase,  A p p l i c a t i o n s o f each were  summarized  and t h e t h r e e t y p e s a n a l y z e d i n t e r m s o f t h e G e n e r a l D e c i s i o n  Paradigm  t o p r o d u c e a summary p r o f i l e . T h a t p r o f i l e shows f a c u l t y f l o w m o d e l s , as a g r o u p , t o be r e l a t i v e l y s i m p l e , w i t h s t a b l e r e l a t i o n s h i p s a n d l i t t l e uncertainty.  T h e summary p r o f i l e w i l l be t h e s u b j e c t o f f u r t h e r  a t t e n t i o n i n C h a p t e r S i x when i t w i l l be c o m p a r e d  t o t h e summary  p r o f i l e s o f d e c i s i o n processes p e r t a i n i n g t o f a c u l t y rank d i s t r i b u t i o n s .  96 Chapter Five FACULTY RANK D I S T R I B U T I O N D E C I S I O N S T h i s c h a p t e r e x t e n d s t h e case a n a l y s i s by r e v i e w i n g s u p p o r t f o r a l t e r n a t i v e models c o n c e r n i n g d e c i s i o n s about f a c u l t y rank d i s t r i b u t i o n . Three main models a r e i d e n t i f i e d and e l a b o r a t e d i n terms o f t h e g e n e r a l d e c i s i o n paradigm.  A t y p o l o g y o f f a c u l t y rank d i s t r i b u t i o n d e c i s i o n s i s  d e v e l o p e d a n d u s e d t o o r g a n i z e a r e v i e w o f s t u d i e s e x a m i n i n g how s u c h c h o i c e s a r e o r c o u l d be made, a n d t h e c o n d i t i o n s u n d e r w h i c h e a c h may hold.  The r e v i e w i s summarized  i n an a s s e s s m e n t o f t h e s u p p o r t f o r e a c h  a l t e r n a t i v e d e c i s i o n model w i t h r e s p e c t t o e a c h t y p e o f f a c u l t y r a n k deci si on. MODELS OF D E C I S I O N In d e v e l o p i n g t h e g e n e r a l d e c i s i o n p a r a d i g m i n C h a p t e r T h r e e , s e v e r a l competing t h e o r i e s were s k e t c h e d b r i e f l y .  This section will  e l a b o r a t e upon t h r e e p a r t i c u l a r e x e m p l a r s w h i c h e m p h a s i z e  alternative  e l e m e n t s i n t h e g e n e r a l d e c i s i o n p a r a d i g m a n d have r e c e i v e d c o n s i d e r a b l e earlier attention:  t h e r a t i o n a l model  t i o n a l p r o c e s s model c o a l i t i o n a l model  ( e . g . Quade, 1975), t h e o r g a n i z a -  (e.g. A l l i s o n , 1971) and t h e p o l i t i c a l o r  (e.g. B a l d r i d g e , 1971).  T h e r a t i o n a l model h a s  s e r v e d a s a b a s i s f o r d e v e l o p m e n t o f t h e l a t t e r two a s t h e y one o r a n o t h e r d e f i c i e n c i e s i n t h e c l a s s i c a l  overcome  view.  The s u p e r i o r e m p i r i c a l s u p p o r t f o r t h e o r g a n i z a t i o n a l p r o c e s s a n d c o a l i t i o n a l m o d e l s w i l l be shown t o e n a b l e t h e i r s e l e c t i o n t o m e e t t h e n e e d s o f t h e p r e s e n t s t u d y i n two ways w h i c h s t e m f r o m b a s i c i n t e r e s t i n l i m i t i n g t h e e f f e c t s on t h e r e s e a r c h w h i c h may be c a u s e d b y model  bias.  First, Schmidtlein  i d e n t i f i e s two c o m p e t i n g p a r a d i g m s o f t h e p o l i c y  making d e c i s i o n process p r e s c r i p t i v e " and  in education  w h i c h he t e r m s t h e  "incremental/remedial"  (1974:4).  "comprehensive/  These terms are  c h o s e n t o r e f l e c t e m p h a s i s on a n a l y s i s , e x p e r t i s e and c a l c u l a t i o n i n t h e f o r m e r and n e g o t i a t i o n , s e l f - i n t e r e s t a n d u n c e r t a i n t y i n t h e ( S c h m i d t l e i n , 1974).  More t o t h e p o i n t , he o b s e r v e s a gap b e t w e e n t h e  "comprehensive/prescriptive of education"  latter  i d e o l o g y and i n c r e m e n t a l / r e m e d i a l  practices  (1974:11 ).  The b a s i c p r o b l e m f o r t h i s s t u d y i s t o a s s e s s t h e d e g r e e o f c o n g r u e n c e b e t w e e n m o d e l s i n a i d o f d e c i s i o n and m o d e l s o f d e c i s i o n . Schmidtlein  c a u t i o n s t h a t d i f f e r e n c e s may  e x i s t between p r e s c r i p t i v e  m o d e l s f o r d e c i s i o n ( i . e . t h e i d e o l o g y ) and t h e r e s u l t s o f e x a m i n i n g c u r r e n t p r a c t i c e s as t h e y s u p p o r t a m o d e l o f d e c i s i o n .  Hence, to a v o i d  model b i a s , t h e c u e s p r o v i d e d d i r e c t o u r a t t e n t i o n t o b o t h p r e s c r i p t i v e and d e s c r i p t i v e w o r k s . The s e c o n d way  i n w h i c h m o d e l b i a s may  be a v o i d e d  highlights  u s e f u l d i s t i n c t i o n s among m o d e l s i n t e r m s o f t h e i r r e l a t i o n s h i p s b e t w e e n an o r g a n i z a t i o n and i t s e n v i r o n m e n t .  Support f o r models showing  g r e a t e r o r l e s s e r r a t i o n a l i t y has b e e n d e v e l o p e d i n t h e l i t e r a t u r e and has b e e n r e l a t e d t o t h e i n f l u e n c e s o f c r i s i s o r e x t e r n a l organization  ( e . g . S m a r t and V e r t i n s k y , 1 9 7 7 ) .  pressure  Two m a j o r t r e a t m e n t s  d e c i s i o n s i n o r g a n i z a t i o n s r e f l e c t i n g such c o n d i t i o n s are the tional process  on  the of  organiza-  and c o a l i t i o n a l o r p o l i t i c a l m o d e l s ( e . g . A l l i s o n , 1 9 7 1 ) .  Given the a t l e a s t n o m i n a l l y  c r i t i c a l (von Z u r - M u e h l e n , 1977)  o f the problem o f f a c u l t y rank d i s t r i b u t i o n , the c u r r e n t  nature  research  r e q u i r e s t h a t b o t h be u s e d as e x e m p l a r s o f a l t e r n a t i v e m o d e l s d e s c r i b i n g actual decision  processes.  98 D e s c r i p t i v e vs. Normative. Theories I t has b e e n p r o p o s e d t h a t a t t e n t i o n t o t h e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f d e c i s i o n m a k i n g i n an o r g a n i z a t i o n  i s an i m p o r t a n t  research in aid of organizational decision. digm p r o v i d e s  The g e n e r a l  designing  decision  para-  f o r i d e n t i f y i n g the elements o f d e c i s i o n which l i n k  i n d i v i d u a l t o the o r g a n i z a t i o n a l chapter  feature in  setting.  Therefore,  the  the task in t h i s  i s t o p o i n t o u t t h o s e l i n k i n g e l e m e n t s as t h e y r e l a t e t o d e c i s i o n  making i n u n i v e r s i t i e s . A t t e n t i o n has b e e n d i r e c t e d t o o v e r c o m i n g t h e p r o b l e m o f model bias i n the r e s e a r c h . important  to acknowledge the e x i s t e n c e o f models w h i c h d e s c r i b e  prescribe. Michigan  With r e s p e c t to models o f d e c i s i o n making, i t i s  A r g y r i s o f H a r v a r d U n i v e r s i t y and Cohen o f t h e U n i v e r s i t y o f  r e s p e c t i v e l y have a r t i c u l a t e d p o s i t i o n s i n s u p p o r t o f c o n d u c t -  ing research which attends  p r i m a r i l y to each form.  A r g y r i s d e f i n e s e s p o u s e d t h e o r i e s o f a c t i o n as " t h o s e people  and  that  r e p o r t as a b a s i s f o r a c t i o n s " ( 1 9 7 6 : 3 6 7 ) , and t h e o r i e s - i n - u s e  " t h e o r i e s o f a c t i o n i n f e r r e d f r o m how  people a c t u a l l y behave (1976:367).  A r g y r i s and Shon ( 1 9 7 4 ) r e p o r t e d t h e o b s e r v a t i o n b e t w e e n e s p o u s e d t h e o r i e s and t h e o r i e s - i n - u s e .  of  discrepancies  A r g y r i s (1976) proposes  t h a t e f f e c t i v e d e c i s i o n m a k i n g be s o u g h t by e x p a n d i n g r e s e a r c h more t h a n s u p p o r t  " t h e s t a t u s quo"  t o go b e y o n d t h e o r i e s - i n - u s e  as  t o do  ( 1 9 7 6 : 3 7 4 ) , i n p a r t i c u l a r , by  formulations  to develop  seeking  better normative  statements. In r e p l y i n g t o A r g y r i s , Cohen s t a t e s h i s own d e v o t e t h e b u l k o f my e n e r g y t o u n d e r s t a n d i n g  why  preference  t h e w o r l d i s as i t so  p e r s i s t e n t l y i s , and t h e n make a v a i l a b l e t o a l l s u c h a c t i o n o f my u n d e r s t a n d i n g  as I can u n c o v e r " ( 1 9 7 6 : 3 7 7 ) .  " i s to  implications  The e x c h a n g e b e t w e e n  99 t h e s e two s c h o l a r s s h a r p e n s d e s c r i p t i v e and n o r m a t i v e  a f o c u s on t h e p r o b l e m  of choosing  t h e o r i e s or models i n t h i s  between  study.  F r a n k S c h m i d t l e i n r e p o r t s "An A n a l y s i s o f D e c i s i o n S t r a t e g i e s Employed i n the Governance o f Higher E d u c a t i o n " upon a d e s c r i p t i v e v s . n o r m a t i v e  (1975) which e l a b o r a t e s  c o n t r o v e r s y c o n c e r n i n g the  model f o r u n i v e r s i t y d e c i s i o n m a k i n g .  appropriate  S c h m i d t l e i n (1974) i d e n t i f i e d  p r e s e n c e o f a gap b e t w e e n " i d e o l o g y ' and " p r a c t i c e s " i n h i g h e r 1  decisions.  the  education  He d e s c r i b e s t h e t r a d i t i o n a l i d e o l o g y a s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h a  "comprehensive/prescriptive  paradigm" emphasizing  analysis, rationality  a n d t h e use o f p l a n n i n g r h e t o r i c . On t h e o t h e r h a n d , S c h m i d t l e i n observes  "a h i g h p r o p o r t i o n o f d e c i s i o n s i n e d u c a t i o n a r e made on a  d i s j o i n t e d , incremental, remedial  b a s i s " ( 1 9 7 4 : 1 1 ) and s u m m a r i z e s d e -  c i s i o n m a k i n g p r a c t i c e as a s s o c i a t e d w i t h an paradigm" emphasizing  "incremental/remedial  p o l i t i c a l p r o c e s s e s and r e d u c t i o n o f r i s k .  To s y n t h e s i z e t h e p o s i t i o n s o f Cohen a n d A r g y r i s i n t e r m s by S c h m i d t l e i n , u n i v e r s i t y d e c i s i o n m a k i n g may p o l i t i c a l models o f a c t i o n , but espouses rational analysis.  used  use t h e o r i e s based  in  t h e o r i e s based i n models o f  S i n c e , f o r the purposes  of t h i s study, i t i s  e s s e n t i a l to o f f s e t the b i a s i n g f a c t o r s a s s o c i a t e d with a narrow view o f d e c i s i o n , b o t h d e s c r i p t i v e a n d p r e s c r i p t i v e t h e o r i e s m u s t be  analyzed.  T h e r e f o r e our a t t e n t i o n i s d i r e c t e d to both d e s c r i p t i v e s t u d i e s and normative  the  literature.  Normative Theory o f U n i v e r s i t y Decision: Collegium The t r a d i t i o n a l model f o r d e c i s i o n m a k i n g i n a u n i v e r s i t y i s b a s e d i n t h e c o n c e p t o f t h e u n i v e r s i t y a s an i n s t i t u t i o n c o n c e r n e d  with  i n t e l l e c t u a l e x c e l l e n c e and t h e d e v e l o p m e n t , s c r u t i n y and e v a l u a t i o n o f  100 i d e a s i n an o p e n f o r u m .  The r e l i a n c e on i n d i v i d u a l s c h o l a r s h i p i s  f u n d a m e n t a l t o t h e n o t i o n o f a u n i v e r s i t y " c o l l e g i u m " as t h e mode f o r u n i v e r s i t y governance, i n c l u d i n g the making o f p o l i c y d e c i s i o n s . l i t e r a t u r e r e v e a l s t h r e e themes u n d e r p i n n i n g  the concept o f  One theme i s b a s e d i n t h e c o n c e p t o f c o m m u n i t y . has p r o p o s e d  The  collegium.  John M i l l e t t  t h a t t h e model o f c o m m u n i t y i s s u p e r i o r t o t h e common  n o t i o n o f h i e r a r c h y i n an o r g a n i z a t i o n .  Millett states:  I do n o t b e l i e v e t h a t t h e c o n c e p t o f h i e r a r c h y i s a r e a l i s t i c r e p r e s e n t a t i o n o f the i n t e r p e r s o n a l r e l a t i o n s h i p s which e x i s t w i t h i n a c o l l e g e or u n i v e r s i t y . Nor do I b e l i e v e t h a t a s t r u c t u r e o f h i e r a r c h y i s a d e s i r a b l e p r e s c r i p t i o n f o r the o r g a n i z a t i o n o f a c o l l e g e o r u n i v e r s i t y . ... I would argue t h a t there i s a n o t h e r c o n c e p t o f o r g a n i z a t i o n t h a t i s j u s t as v a l u a b l e a t o o l o f a n a l y s i s and p e r h a p s e v e n more u s e f u l as a g e n e r a l i z e d o b s e r v a t i o n o f g r o u p and interpersonal behavior. This i s ^ t h e concept of c o m m u n i t y . The c o n c e p t o f c o m m u n i t y p r e s u p p o s e s an o r g a n i z a t i o n i n w h i c h f u n c t i o n s a r e d i f f e r e n t i a t e d and i n w h i c h s p e c i a l i z a t i o n m u s t be b r o u g h t t o g e t h e r , o r t h e c o o r d i n a t i o n , i f you w i l l , i s a c h i e v e d n o t t h r o u g h a s t r u c t u r e o f s u p e r o r d i n a t i o n and s u b o r d i n a t i o n o f p e r s o n s and g r o u p s b u t t h r o u g h a dynamic of consensus. (1 9 6 2 : 2 3 4 - 2 3 5 ) A second  concept used i n the n o t i o n o f c o l l e g i u m i s the  professional authority of faculty.  T a l c o t t Parsons (1947) h i g h l i g h t e d  the d i f f e r e n c e between " o f f i c i a l competence" stemming from one's s p e c i a l k n o w l e d g e and e x p e r t i s e i n an a r e a . collegium with a hierarchy,  Parsons a l s o contrasts  the  noting:  . . . there are strong tendenceis f o r [ p r o f e s s i o n a l s ] to d e v e l o p a d i f f e r e n t s o r t o f s t r u c t u r e from t h a t c h a r a c t e r i s t i c . o f the a d m i n i s t r a t i v e h i e r a r c h y . . . of bureaucracy. Instead of a r i g i d hierarchy of s t a t u s and a u t h o r i t y t h e r e t e n d s t o be w h a t i s r o u g h l y , i n f o r m a l s t a t u s , a c o m p a n y o f e q u a l s . ... ( 1 9 4 7 : 6 0 ) F i n a l l y , a p r e s c r i p t i o n f o r a u n i v e r s i t y u t o p i a i s o f f e r e d by Paul Goodman ( 1 9 6 2 ) who  urges the improvement o f personal  relationships  101 among f a c u l t y and s t u d e n t s to impersonality  i n an " a c a d e m i c c o m m u n i t y " as an  in large i n s t i t u t i o n s .  Baldridge, et  a l . (1978) review  the t h r e e u n d e r p i n n i n g  o f c o l l e g i u m and n o t e t h a t d i s c u s s i o n o f c o l l e g i u m  c o l l e g i a ! idea of round-table r e f l e c t the a c t u a l processes particular, Baldridge et  d e c i s i o n making does not i n m o s t i n s t i t u t i o n s ..."  Indeed the  accurately (p. 33).  w i t h t h e p r o b l e m o f conflict;.  When M i l l e t e m p h a s i z e s battles that  p r e c e d e c o n s e n s u s and t h e f a c t t h a t t h e c o n s e n s u s a c t u a l l y o f one g r o u p o v e r a n o t h e r "  Notwithstanding substantial empirical  In  a l . a r g u e t h a t t h e c o l l e g i a l model " f a i l s t o  t h e ' d y n a m i c o f c o n s e n s u s , ' he n e g l e c t s t h e p r o l o n g e d  the prevalence  themes  " a r e more a l a m e n t  f o r p a r a d i s e l o s t than a d e s c r i p t i o n o f p r e s e n t r e a l i t y .  deal adequately  antidote  (1978:34).  the f a i l u r e o f the c o l l e g i u m model t o support,  represents  achieve  i t i s a common and f u n d a m e n t a l e l e m e n t i n  the n o r m a t i v e l i t e r a t u r e (see, f o r example, B a l d w i n , 1979). A number o f s t u d i e s s u p p o r t  t h e n o t i o n o f c o l l e g i u m as a  s h a r e d w i d e l y among u n i v e r s i t y members. t h a t f a c u l t y members e x p r e s s e d  concept  G r o s s and G r a m b s c h ( 1 9 6 8 ) f o u n d  g o a l s w h i c h t e n d e d t o be p r o f e s s i o n a l l y  o r i e n t e d , s c h o l a r l y , and e l i t i s t r a t h e r t h a n i n s t i t u t i o n a l l y o r i e n t e d and p r a c t i c a l , and t h a t t h o s e g o a l s w e r e s i m i l a r t o t h o s e e x p r e s s e d a c a d e m i c d e a n s and d e p a r t m e n t h e a d s . preferences  by  F a c u l t y members a r t i c u l a t e  f o r p a r t i c i p a t i o n in u n i v e r s i t y governance, academic freedom,  r e c o g n i t i o n b a s e d i n p r o f e s s i o n a l a c c o m p l i s h m e n t and maximum  opportuni-  t i e s t o e x t e n d t h e i r i n d i v i d u a l c a r e e r s as p r o f e s s i o n a l s ( s e e , f o r e x a m p l e , M i l t o n and S h o b e n , 1968;  C l a r k , 1 970; N i c h o l s , 1 9 7 0 ) .  D i f f i c u l t i e s i n a c h i e v i n g a c o l l e g i u m are noted S t e r n f e l d ( 1 9 7 1 ) who  by Z y s k i n d  and  a r g u e t h a t g r e a t e r e m p h a s i s be g i v e n t o r e a s o n e d  102 a r g u m e n t i n u n i v e r s i t y d e c i s i o n m a k i n g , w i t h l e s s e m p h a s i s on strength. who  voting  A n o t h e r p r o b l e m i s i d e n t i f i e d by D r e s s e l and F a r i c y (1 972)  n o t e an a p p a r e n t i n a b i l i t y on t h e p a r t o f f a c u l t y members t o  a s e t o f g o a l s w h i c h may  be a c h i e v e d  i n s t i t u t i o n a l d e c i s i o n making. several  express  through t h e i r involvement i n  F i n a l l y , Cleveland  (1 974)  observed  f l a w s i n t h e r e a l i z a t i o n o f norms o f c o l l e g i u m , f o r e x a m p l e ,  a p a t h y and d i s c o u r a g e m e n t o f i n n o v a t i o n .  Possibly in frustration,  Cleveland posed the r h e t o r i c a l yet e s s e n t i a l question, e v e r y b o d y i n on t h e a c t and s t i l l Collegium as u n d e r p i n n i n g  "How  do y o u  get  g e t any a c t i o n ? " (1 9 7 4 ) .  a s c l a s s i c a l r a t i o n a l i t y . The t h r e e t h e m e s i d e n t i f i e d the concept  o f c o l l e g i u m may  be i n t e r p r e t e d as m a k i n g i t  c o n s i s t e n t w i t h t h e c l a s s i c a l model o f r a t i o n a l a n a l y s i s ( A l l i s o n , 1 9 7 1 ) . The theme o f c o n s e n s u s among a c o m m u n i t y i m p l i e s a g r e e m e n t on  both  o b j e c t i v e s a n d m e a n s , o r i n t h e t e r m s u s e d by Thompson a n d T u d e n  (1959),  on o u t c o m e s a n d c a u s a t i o n s .  the  G i v e n a g r e e m e n t on t h o s e two  items,  s t r a t e g y o f c o m p u t a t i o n i s a p p r o p r i a t e , w h e r e c o m p u t a t i o n may  involve  one o r a n o t h e r o r a l l o f l a r g e a m o u n t s o f d a t a , e l e c t r o n i c m a c h i n e r y and a h i g h l y t r a i n e d s p e c i a l i s t t o p e r f o r m  the e x e r c i s e ; however,  s t r a t e g y f o r d e c i s i o n i s s t r a i g h t f o r w a r d a n a l y s i s " ( T h o m p s o n and  "the Tuden,  1 959). S i m i l a r l y t h e s e c o n d theme o f p r o f e s s i o n a l a u t h o r i t y o r  expertise  c o n c e r n s t h e s p e c i a l k n o w l e d g e i n an a r e a , i n c l u d i n g t h e l i n k a g e s a l t e r n a t i v e s and outcomes.  F i n a l l y , the i n c l u s i o n o f personal  s h i p s as a theme i n c o l l e g i u m  broadens the concept  between  relation-  to i n c l u d e outcomes  and a l t e r n a t i v e s beyond a d i s c i p l i n e . G i v e n an e m p h a s i s on a n a l y s i s and s u b s t a n t i v e e x p e r t i s e i n c o n j u n c t i o n with a wide scope o f concern,  the c o l l e g i a ! model o f d e c i s i o n i s  103 c o n s i s t e n t w i t h t h e c l a s s i c a l model o f r a t i o n a l i t y .  Classical  ration-  a l i t y i s s u m m a r i z e d by A l l i s o n ( 1 9 7 1 ) , Quade (1 975) a n d t h e p r e s e n t study (see Chapter T h r e e ) . T h e r a t i o n a l model d i r e c t s a t t e n t i o n t o a s e t o f d e f i n e d o b j e c t i v e s i n terms o f which a s i t u a t i o n i s i n t e r p r e t e d , a spectrum o f a l t e r n a t i v e s i s i d e n t i f i e d and a n a l y z e d , and t h e consequences o f each o f the large s e t o f a l t e r n a t i v e s are i d e n t i f i e d .  The d e c i s i o n i s t a k e n by  s e l e c t i n g t h a t a l t e r n a t i v e whose c o n s e q u e n c e s r a n k h i g h e s t i n t e r m s o f the d e c i s i o n maker's o b j e c t i v e s .  To q u o t e A l l i s o n , " R a t i o n a l i t y r e f e r s  to c o n s i s t e n t v a l u e - m a x i m i z i n g c h o i c e w i t h i n s p e c i f i e d  constraints"  (1 9 7 1 : 3 0 ) . The f a i l u r e o f t h e c o l l e g i a ! model to a c h i e v e e m p i r i c a l s u p p o r t o r t o a c t a s a n o r g a n i z i n g c o n c e p t f o r a c t i o n has been e x a m i n e d i n o t h e r r e s e a r c h w h i c h has d e v e l o p e d more e l a b o r a t e c o n c e p t i o n s o f d e c i s i o n e x p a n d i n g upon t h e c l a s s i c a l m o d e l .  These d e v e l o p m e n t s stem from  t h e o r i z i n g about f a i l u r e s to meet the c l a s s i c a l model's r e q u i r e m e n t s e i t h e r f o r c o m p r e h e n s i v e a n a l y s i s ( e . g . S i m o n , 1 9 5 8 ) o r f o r a g r e e m e n t on o b j e c t i v e s (e.g. Lindblom, 1965).  The f i r s t l i n e o f d e v e l o p m e n t  e m p h a s i z e s t h e " b o u n d e d " ( S i m o n , 1 9 5 8 ) n a t u r e o f human d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g , a n d i n a n o r g a n i z a t i o n a l s e t t i n g h a s been e l a b o r a t e d i n t h e " o r g a n i z a t i o n a l p r o c e s s " ( A l l i s o n , 1 9 7 1 ) model o f d e c i s i o n .  The s e c o n d c l a s s o f  d e v e l o p m e n t s e m p h a s i z i n g t h e i n a b i l i t y t o r e a c h a g r e e m e n t on g o a l s , o r e v e n t h e e x i s t e n c e o f c o m p e t i n g g o a l s has l e d t o t h e p o l i t i c a l  or  c o a l i t i o n a l view o f d e c i s i o n making which h i g h l i g h t s the n e g o t i a t i o n o f compromise p o s i t i o n s i n r e s o l v i n g d e c i s i o n problems (Lindblom, 1 965).  Bounded R a t i o n a l i t y : O r g a n i z a t i o n a l P r o c e s s Model o f D e c i s i o n The c l a s s i c a l r a t i o n a l model o f d e c i s i o n r e q u i r e s t h r e e t a s k s t o be c o m p l e t e d :  "(1) the generation o f a l l possible a l t e r n a t i v e s ,  (2) a s s e s s m e n t o f t h e p r o b a b i l i t i e s o f a l l c o n s e q u e n c e s o f e a c h , and (3) e v a l u a t i o n o f each s e t o f c o n s e q u e n c e s f o r a l l r e l e v a n t ( A l l i s o n , 1971:71).  goals"  T h e s e t a s k s r e q u i r e , a s Simon p u t s i t , " p o w e r s o f  p r e s c i e n c e and c a p a c i t i e s f o r computation a t t r i b u t e t o God" ( 1 9 5 7 : 3 ) .  resembling  Simon d e v e l o p e d  t h o s e we u s u a l l y  t h e concept  o f "bounded  r a t i o n a l i t y " t o h i g h l i g h t t h e l i m i t s o f human c a p a c i t y t o p e r f o r m  each  o f the three tasks with respect to the complexities o f problems associated with  organizations.  In p a r t i c u l a r , Simon i d e n t i f i e d f i v e a r e a s i n w h i c h r e a l d e c i s i o n m a k e r s d e v i a t e f r o m t h e c l a s s i c a l r a t i o n a l model a s t h e y make s i m p l i f i c a t i o n s r e q u i r e d by t h e i r b o u n d e d a b i l i t i e s :  factored problems,  s a t i s f i c i n g , search behavior, uncertainty avoidance a c t i o n s (1 9 5 7 ) .  C y e r t a n d M a r c h (1 9 6 3 ) b l e n d e d  and r e p e r t o i r e s o f  challenges to classical  d e c i s i o n theory with a survey o f the l i t e r a t u r e o f o r g a n i z a t i o n s . e x t e n d e d S i m o n ' s b a s i c n o t i o n o f b o u n d e d n e s s i n an e f f o r t w h i c h on " t h e e f f e c t o f o r g a n i z a t i o n a l s t r u c t u r e a n d c o n v e n t i o n a l  focused  practice  upon t h e d e v e l o p m e n t o f g o a l s , t h e f o r m u l a t i o n o f e x p e c t a t i o n s e x e c u t i o n o f c h o i c e " (1963:1 ) .  They  and t h e  T h e i r d e v e l o p m e n t o f a t h e o r e t i c a l model  o f o r g a n i z a t i o n a l d e c i s i o n i s b a s e d on : q u a s i - r e s o l u t i o n o f c o n f l i c t , uncertainty avoidance,  p r o b l e m i s t i c search, and o r g a n i z a t i o n a l l e a r n i n g .  In t h e C y e r t a n d M a r c h t r e a t m e n t ,  c o n f l i c t i s never  fully  r e s o l v e d i n t h a t t h e r e i s no c o n s e n s u s w i t h i n a n o r g a n i z a t i o n a t t h e level o f operational goals.  C o n f l i c t i n g p r e s s u r e t o meet t h e o p e r a t i o n a l  goals o f organizational subunits i s only p a r t i a l l y resolved, t y p i c a l l y  105 by f i r s t a t t e n d i n g t o one and t h e n t o a n o t h e r .  The r e l i a n c e on  standard  o r g a n i z a t i o n a l a c t i v i t i e s leads o r g a n i z a t i o n s to attempt to a v o i d u n c e r t a i n o r unknown.  As a r e s u l t , s h o r t t e r m p r o b l e m s a r e  r a t h e r than l o n g range s t r a t e g i e s developed.  Search  the  solved,  f o r a l t e r n a t i v e s to  s o l v e p r o b l e m s i s s t i m u l a t e d by p a r t i c u l a r c a s e s and s e e k s o n l y to s o l v e that s p e c i f i c matter.  F i n a l l y , organizational behaviour,  l y s t a b l e , i s s e e n t o e v o l v e as t h e r e s u l t o f e x p e r i e n c e ;  while such  t i o n a l l e a r n i n g r e s u l t s i n m o d i f i c a t i o n s to g o a l s , techniques  relativeorganiza-  for  identifying acceptable alternatives. A l l i s o n states a view o f o r g a n i z a t i o n a l d e c i s i o n which uses S i m o n ' s f i v e a r e a s o f l i m i t a t i o n i n an o r g a n i z a t i o n a l s e t t i n g d e f i n e d t h e a t t e n t i o n t o g o a l s , e x p e c t a t i o n s , and c h o i c e d e v e l o p e d  by C y e r t  March: 1.  FACTORED PROBLEMS. P r o b l e m s a r e so c o m p l e x t h a t o n l y a l i m i t e d number o f a s p e c t s o f e a c h p r o b l e m can be a t t e n d e d t o a t a t i m e . T h u s i n d i v i d u a l s f a c t o r ( s p l i t up) p r o b l e m s i n t o quasi-independent p a r t s and d e a l w i t h t h e p a r t s one by o n e . Organiz a t i o n s f a c t o r c o m p l e x p r o b l e m s i n t o a number o f roughly independent parts which are p a r c e l e d out to v a r i o u s o r g a n i z a t i o n a l u n i t s . I d e a l l y probl e m s a r e f a c t o r e d by a m e a n s - e n d a n a l y s i s , w h i c h a s s i g n s s e p a r a b l e p i e c e s to o r g a n i z a t i o n a l subu n i t s a s s u b g o a l s . The s t r u c t u r e o f an o r g a n i z a t i o n thus r e f l e c t s the problems t h a t i t s s u b u n i t s factor (roles c o n s i s t of s p e c i f i e d subsets of premises that guide a c t i o n s i n a p a r t i c u l a r subunit).  2.  SATISFICING. Maximization or o p t i m i z a t i o n i s r e p l a c e d by s a t i s f i c i n g . In c h o o s i n g , human b e i n g s do n o t c o n s i d e r a l l t h e a l t e r n a t i v e s and p i c k t h e a c t i o n with the best consequences. Instead, they f i n d a c o u r s e o f a c t i o n t h a t i s "good enough"-t h a t s a t i s f i e s . O r g a n i z a t i o n s are happy to f i n d a needle i n the haystack r a t h e r than s e a r c h i n g f o r the s h a r p e s t needle i n the haystack.  by and  106 3.  SEARCH. C o m p r e h e n s i v e r a t i o n a l i t y r e q u i r e s c o n s i d e r a t i o n o f a l l a l t e r n a t i v e s , thus making t h e p r o b l e m o f s e a r c h t r i v i a l . Where s a t i s f i c i n g i s the r u l e — s t o p p i n g w i t h the f i r s t a l t e r n a t i v e t h a t i s good e n o u g h — t h e o r d e r i n w h i c h a l t e r n a t i v e s a r e t u r n e d up i s c r i t i c a l . O r g a n i z a t i o n s g e n e r a t e a l t e r n a t i v e s by r e l a t i v e l y stable, sequential search processes. As a r e s u l t , t h e menu i s s e v e r e l y l i m i t e d .  4.  UNCERTAINTY AVOIDANCE. C o m p r e h e n s i v e l y r a t i o n a l agents deal with a l t e r n a t e consequences o f a c t i o n by e s t i m a t i n g p r o b a b i l i t i e s o f p o s s i b l e outcomes. People i n o r g a n i z a t i o n s are q u i t e r e l u c t a n t t o b a s e a c t i o n s on e s t i m a t e s o f an u n c e r t a i n f u t u r e . T h u s c h o i c e p r o c e d u r e s that emphasize short-run feedback are developed. O r g a n i z a t i o n s , l i k e h o u s e t h e r m o s t a t s , r e l y on r e l a t i v e l y prompt c o r r e c t i v e a c t i o n to e l i m i n a t e d e v i a t i o n s b e t w e e n a c t u a l and d e s i r e d t e m p e r a t u r e s , r a t h e r than accurate p r e d i c t i o n o f next month's t e m p e r a t u r e .  5.  REPERTOIRES. R e p e r t o i r e s o f a c t i o n programs are d e v e l o p e d by o r g a n i z a t i o n s and i n d i v i d u a l s . These c o n s t i t u t e the range o f e f f e c t i v e c h o i c e in recurring s i t u a t i o n s . (1 9 7 1 : 7 2 )  An e l a b o r a t e d model o f d e c i s i o n w h i c h v i e w s o r g a n i z a t i o n a l s i o n s as the outcomes o f o r g a n i z a t i o n a l A l l i s o n (1971).  processes  deci-  has been p r o p o s e d  In p a r t i c u l a r , h i s o r g a n i z a t i o n a l p r o c e s s  by  view  e m p h a s i z e s t h e r o l e o f e x i s t i n g o r g a n i z a t i o n a l r o u t i n e s as " c o n s t i t u t i n g the range o f e f f e c t i v e c h o i c e open t o government l e a d e r s c o n f r o n t e d any p r o b l e m " (1 971 :79) and n o t e s t h a t " o r g a n i z a t i o n a l o u t p u t s  structure  the s i t u a t i o n w i t h i n the narrow c o n s t r a i n t s o f which l e a d e r s must their  1  decision'about  an i s s u e .  take  Outputs r a i s e the problem, provide  i n f o r m a t i o n and t a k e t h e i n i t i a l s t e p s t h a t c o l o r t h e f a c e o f t h e t h a t i s turned to the l e a d e r s  with  the issue  (1971:79)."  A l l i s o n ' s work has been e x t e n d e d t o o t h e r s e t t i n g s , s u c h as b o a r d s ( P e t e r s o n , 1 9 7 6 ) , and m u n i c i p a l  government (Kent, 1975).  For  school the  107 purpose o f analyzing decisions concerning  f a c u l t y rank d e c i s i o n i n  u n i v e r s i t i e s , i t may be s u m m a r i z e d u s i n g t h e g e n e r a l d e c i s i o n p a r a d i g m o f t h e current study to produce a capsule Control v a r i a b l e s .  p r o f i l e (See Table I X ) .  Control v a r i a b l e s a r e d e f i n e d as those  c a n be s p e c i f i e d a t a p o i n t i n t i m e .  The o r g a n i z a t i o n a l  directs attention to the organizational  that  process  u n i t and i t s standard  model  reper-  t o i r e s , hence the c o n t r o l l a b l e v a r i a b l e s a t a p o i n t i n time a r e essent i a l l y t h e same a s t h e y w e r e i n t h e r e c e n t p a s t . r e l a t e to the standard  tasks assigned  sub-problems with which i t deals. variables are controllable will  Control  variables will  to the u n i t , which pertain t o the  S i m i l a r l y , the extent t o which  be r e l a t e d t o t h e s u b u n i t ' s  since the a u t h o r i t y structure p a r a l l e l s the organizational  those  authority structure  (e.g. S e l z n i c k , 1957). The  subunit  w i l l n o t a l w a y s be e n g a g e d i n d e a l i n g w i t h t h e same  task, but w i l l devote i t s a t t e n t i o n t o the tasks r e l a t e d to those subunit goals which are threatened of the subunit  a t p a r t i c u l a r times.  w i l l make m a i n t a i n i n g  i t s control over assigned  p a r t o f i t s c o n t r o l problem (March and Simon, 1958). o r g a n i z a t i o n w i l l be r e s p o n s i b l e  Parochial  One  interests tasks  subunit  i nthe  f o r coordinating the efforts o f the  o t h e r s , h o w e v e r , i t may a l s o d e v e l o p  p a r o c h i a l i n t e r e s t s w h i c h make i t  common w i t h a l l s u b u n i t  problems f o r subunit  i n viewing  perspectives,  r a t h e r than g l o b a l ones p e r t a i n i n g t o t h e whole o r g a n i z a t i o n .  The  development o f r e l i a n c e on such p a r o c h i a l views w i l l c o n s t r a i n t h e a b i l i t y to devote properly  subunit  a t t e n t i o n t o p r e s s i n g p r o b l e m s by b i a s i n g  the p e r c e p t i o n o f t h r e a t t o goals i n f a v o r o f t h e -subunit . T h i s w i l l r e s u l t i n a n e m p h a s i s on c o n t r o l v a r i a b l e s w h i c h s e r v e p r i m a r i l y t o protect the subunit, e.g. f a i l i n g to report errors to the c o o r d i n a t i n g  T A B L E IX SUMMARY P R O F I L E OF ORGANIZATIONAL PROCESS DECISION GENERAL D E C I S I O N PARADIGM ELEMENT Control  Variables  ORGANIZATIONAL PROCESS D E C I S I O N S RE: FACULTY Few: Net D i s t r i b u t i o n S i z e Standard Rank/Term A l t e r n a t i v e s Authority  State Variables  Few: D e p e n d e n t on S t a n d a r d C o n t r a c t s ( e . g . Rank, T e r m , T e n u r e ) A l l Internal (e.g. Workload)  Exogenous V a r i a b l e s  Many O m i t t e d Stable Depend on A u t h o r i t y  Observing  Passive/Singul ar Routinized B a s e d on I n s t i t u t i o n a l R e c o r d s H i s t o r i c a l Data Includes Peer Reviews D e c e n t r a l i z e d ; Based i n Organizational Structure  Value Causal  System  System Linkages  Subunit Goals  Emphasized  Simple Customary (Routine)  Constraints  Range o f S t a n d a r d P r a c t i c e P o l i c i n g o f Due P r o c e s s Total Resources Quotas  Time  Short Distant Future, Extension  Horizon  Uncertainty  Near  D i m e n s i o n s Known N a r r o w Range o f O u t c o m e s , T h e r e f o r e Narrow D i s t r i b u t i o n  109 u n i t , a t the expense o f the o r g a n i z a t i o n State variables.  ( e . g . Simon, 1965).  State v a r i a b l e s a r e d e f i n e d as those that cannot  be c o n t r o l l e d , b u t c a n be i n f l u e n c e d .  The tasks s e t f o r an o r g a n i z a t i o n a l  s u b - u n i t d e f i n e t h e realm o f i t s c o n t r o l l a b i l i t y , e.g. recommending an a p p o i n t m e n t be made.  Many a s p e c t s o f t h e t a s k s w i l l n o t be p a r t o f t h e  s p e c i f i c r e s p o n s i b i l i t y o f t h e s u b u n i t , a n d may f a l l i n t o t h e s e t u p o n w h i c h i t i s o n l y a b l e t o e x e r t some i n f l u e n c e t h r o u g h some o t h e r u n i t , e . g . t h r o u g h a Dean t o a P r e s i d e n t .  Influence only i s possible i f there i s a  l i n k between s u b u n i t s which has i t s b a s i s i n t h e i r a u t h o r i z e d t a s k s , e.g. hiring professors.  In o r d e r t o o p e r a t e ,  t h a t l i n k must p r o v i d e f o r  r o u t i n e exchange, a n d i t s e l f be p a r t o f a s t a n d a r d a c t i v i t i e s u n d e r t a k e n by t h e u n i t s .  repertoire of  S u c h l i n k s may b e f o r m e d a s  and f a i l u r e s i n c o m m u n i c a t i o n o r a c h i e v i n g s u b u n i t g o a l s a r e ( A l l i s o n , 1971).  F o r example, t h e task o f maintaining  t r a c t s w i t h f a c u l t y w i l l be a u t h o r i z e d rank and term o r tenure.  S i m i l a r l y , reference to standard  Exogenous v a r i a b l e s .  experienced  employment con-  i n terms o f standard  relation or absolute c r i t e r i a o f appropriate  successes  conditions o f tasks emphasizes  f a c u l t y workload.  Exogenous v a r i a b l e s a r e those that a r e  neither controllable nor influencable.  In the o r g a n i z a t i o n a l  process  view, most v a r i a b l e s are"exogenous and w i l l remain s o . The c o n t r o l and s t a t e v a r i a b l e s a v a i l a b l e t o a member o f a n o r g a n i z a t i o n a l s u b u n i t a r e p r e s c r i b e d by t h e a u t h o r i t y and r e s p o n s i b i l i t y s t r u c t u r e o f t h e o r g a n i z a t i o n i n terms o f the sub-tasks  assigned  t o t h a t u n i t ; changes i n  t h o s e v a r i a b l e s w i l l come a b o u t s l o w l y , w i t h e x p e r i e n c e , d e v e l o p e d on t h e b a s i s o f e x i s t i n g r o u t i n e s .  and be  no  Observing  system.  The o b s e r v i n g  s y s t e m i s t h e means b y w h i c h  i n f o r m a t i o n on a l l v a r i a b l e s i s s o u g h t and c o l l e c t e d .  The o r g a n i z a t i o n a l  p r o c e s s v i e w i n d i c a t e s t h a t t h i s f u n c t i o n w i l l be a s s i g n e d  t o an o r g a n i -  z a t i o n a l s u b u n i t , o r w i l l a t l e a s t be p e r f o r m e d on t h e b a s i s o f r o u t i n e p r o c e d u r e s d e v e l o p e d i n o t h e r u n i t s a n d may be p e r f o r m e d by t h e u n i t s themselves, but always through r o u t i n e s .  The s t a n d a r d i z e d  developed w i l l tend to n e g l e c t i n t e r d e p e n d e n c e s 1971).  o f problems ( A l l i s o n ,  F o r e x a m p l e , p e e r r e v i e w s o f i n d i v i d u a l m e r i t may be made  out regard to the l i k e l y faculty expertise.  with-  n e e d f o r an i n d i v i d u a l i n t e r m s o f o v e r a l l  The f r a c t i o n a t e d n a t u r e o f t h e o r g a n i z a t i o n  mean t h a t t h e t e c h n i c a l l e v e l w i l l thereby  procedures  will  be b u f f e r e d f r o m t h e e n v i r o n m e n t ,  dealing with the l e a s t current (therefore h i s t o r i c a l ) informa-  t i o n w h i l e r u n n i n g t h e r i s k o f i n t e r p r e t i n g t h e e n v i r o n m e n t as s t a t i c when i t may i n f a c t be v e r y much i n f l u x ( T h o m p s o n , 1 9 6 7 ) .  Attention  t o i n f o r m a t i o n w i l l be b i a s e d t o w a r d s t h e d e t e c t i o n o f t h r e a t s t o g o a l s r a t h e r than equal  a t t e n t i o n t o t h r e a t s and o p p o r t u n i t i e s  Value system.  (Crecine, 1969).  Value system r e f e r s to the value to the i n d i v i d u a l  o r g a n i z a t i o n a l member a s s o c i a t e d w i t h a c h i e v i n g o n e o r a n o t h e r c u r r e n t or future states. present  The o r g a n i z a t i o n a l  process  view values h i g h l y t h e  s t a t e and sees i t as t h e p r e f e r r e d s t a t e f o r t h e f u t u r e .  Any  c h a n g e w i l l be made i n a t e n t a t i v e a n d s l o w m a n n e r ; i f a n y p r o b l e m s a r i s e , i t i s a simple m a t t e r t o r e t u r n to t h e s t a t u s quo. receives reinforcement  from the use o f h i s t o r i c a l data  This approach  (Downs, 1 9 6 7 ) .  A t t e n t i o n t o s u b u n i t g o a l s makes t h e p r e s e r v a t i o n o f o r g a n i z a t i o n a l s u b u n i t s and t h e i r procedures p a r t i c u l a r l y h i g h l y  valued.  ni Causal  relationships.  Causal  r e l a t i o n s h i p s are the cause  and  e f f e c t r e l a t i o n s h i p s b e l i e v e d t o l i n k a c t i o n s and c o n s e q u e n c e s . organizational.process perform  a l l tasks.  v i e w r e l i e s h e a v i l y on s t a n d a r d i z e d  The  processes  I t f o l l o w s , t h e r e f o r e , t h a t the r e l a t i v e l y  to  simple,  s t a b l e sets o f v a r i a b l e s towards which o r g a n i z a t i o n a l a t t e n t i o n i s d i r e c t e d m u s t be l i n k e d by c u s t o m a r y r e l a t i o n s h i p s w h i c h a r e s e e n t o be s i m p l e and s t a b l e as w e l l . Constraints.  C o n s t r a i n t s are those binding statements t h a t  i n t e r r e l a t e a l l three classes o f v a r i a b l e s .  In an o r g a n i z a t i o n a l  c e s s v i e w , t h e s i m p l e s e t s o f c o n t r o l and s t a t e v a r i a b l e s a r e  pro-  tightly  bound by f i x e d o v e r a l l c o n s t r a i n t s s u c h as q u o t a s l a i d o u t i n t h e o r g a n i z a t i o n a l s t r u c t u r e , and t h e a s s o c i a t e f r a c t i o n a t i o n o f t a s k s responsibilities.  The c o n s t r a i n t s v a l u e d m o s t h i g h l y i n a  and  subunit,  and t h o s e w h i c h p r o v i d e g r e a t e s t d i r e c t i o n , a r e t h o s e w h i c h a r e comp l e t e l y c o n s i s t e n t with standard the s u b u n i t .  p r a c t i c e and p r o t e c t t h e i n t e g r i t y o f  By e m p h a s i z i n g s t a n d a r d  r e s p o n s e s and i n t e r p r e t a t i o n s o f  s i t u a t i o n s , r o u t i n e c o n s t r a i n t s produce a bias towards  suboptimal  c h o i c e s and s o l u t i o n s t o symptoms ( M a r c h and S i m o n , 1 9 5 8 ) . Time h o r i z o n .  The o r g a n i z a t i o n a l p r o c e s s  view emphasizes  p r a c t i c e s as t h e means by w h i c h t h e f u t u r e w i l l be m a n a g e d . while the usual i t may present  current  Therefore,  h o r i z o n f o r d e c i s i o n m a k i n g w i l l be s h o r t ( A l l i s o n ,  1971)  a l s o be s a i d t h a t t h e h o r i z o n i s v i r t u a l l y u n l i m i t e d b e c a u s e t h e i s so h i g h l y v a l u e d t h a t i t i s s e e n as c o n t i n u i n g  indefinitely.  almost  The d i s t i n c t i o n s l i e s i n t h e d i f f e r e n c e b e t w e e n t h i r t y  years' experience  and one y e a r ' s e x p e r i e n c e  thirty  times.  112 Uncertainty  structure.  organizational process  One o f t h e m o s t i m p o r t a n t  view i s i t s treatment  features o f the  of uncertainty.  Uncertain-  ty s t r u c t u r e r e f e r s t o those elements o f the d e c i s i o n paradigm which a r e uncertain.  The o r g a n i z a t i o n a l process  u n c e r t a i n , and indeed the processes The r e l i a n c e o n s t a n d a r d  view sees v e r y few e l e m e n t s t o be  a r e p r e d i c a t e d on u n c e r t a i n t y  avoidance.  p a t t e r n s o f r e s p o n s e assumes t h a t t h e environment  i s s t a b l e and that t h e range o f problems and d e c i s i o n s r e q u i r i n g a t t e n t i o n is stable.  Alternatives are discounted  i f they involve s u b s t a n t i a l which  devia-  t i o n from c u r r e n t procedures and r e l a t i o n s h i p s .  Information  supports  e x i s t i n g p r a c t i c e i s exaggerated and information  t o t h e c o n t r a r y may be  ignored ( F e s t i n g e r , 1964). Goal D i v e r s i t y : C o a l i t i o n a l Model o f D e c i s i o n The c l a s s i c a l r a t i o n a l m o d e l o f d e c i s i o n e m p h a s i z e s t h e p r e s e n c e and r o l e o f i n d i v i d u a l g o a l s i n m a k i n g c h o i c e s basic tasks o f generating  (e-9- Simon, 1955).  and t e s t i n g a l t e r n a t i v e s a r e f o r t h e purpose o f  j u d g i n g each a l t e r n a t i v e course o f a c t i o n as i t p r o v i d e s integrated s e t o f goals.  The  f o r meeting an  I n an o r g a n i z a t i o n a l s e t t i n g , r a t i o n a l d e c i s i o n  r e q u i r e s agreement on t h e s e t o f o r g a n i z a t i o n a l g o a l s w h i c h a r e t o be p u r s u e d . I t has been observed  ( e . g . D r e s s e l and F a r i c y , 1972) t h a t u n i v e r s i t y  members o f t e n e n c o u n t e r p r o b l e m s i n a r t i c u l a t i n g a s e t o f g o a l s . Moreover, considerable 1960)  evidence  e x i s t s ( e . g . Almond, 1950; N e u s t a d t ,  t h a t d i f f e r e n t members o f a n o r g a n i z a t i o n w i l l h a v e d i f f e r e n t  g o a l s w h i c h p r e c l u d e a g r e e m e n t o f a s t r i c t l y common s e t .  An a l t e r -  n a t i v e model o f d e c i s i o n has been d e v e l o p e d w h i c h p r o v i d e s f o r negotiation o f an acceptable  s e t o f goals, but only f o r the time  I t i s assumed t h a t on a n o t h e r d a y , t h e p r o b l e m o f r e d e f i n i n g t h e  being.  113 c o l l e c t i v e m i s s i o n w i l l be a d d r e s s e d  and a t t h a t time, the a l l i e s o f  t o d a y may o r may n o t be p r i m a r y i n d e t e r m i n i n g Lindblom  (1965) developed  t h e outcomes.  a model o f " s u c c e s s i v e l i m i t e d  comparisons" which contrasts with the c l a s s i c a l r a t i o n a l model: 1.  The from for are  s e l e c t i o n o f values and goals i s n o t d i s t i n c t empirical analysis of alternative actions a c h i e v i n g t h e g o a l s ; r a t h e r t h e two p r o c e s s e s intermingled.  2.  S i n c e e n d s a n d means a r e n o t d i s t i n c t , m e a n s - e n d analysis i s often inappropriate or limited.  3.  The t e s t o f a " g o o d " p o l i c y i s t y p i c a l l y t h a t various analysts f i n d themselves d i r e c t l y agreei n g on a p o l i c y ( w i t h o u t a g r e e m e n t t h a t i t i s t h e m o s t a p p r o p r i a t e means t o an e n d ) .  4.  A n a l y s i s i s d r a s t i c a l l y l i m i t e d . Important p o l i c y outcomes are n e g l e c t e d . Important a l t e r n a t i v e p o l i c i e s are neglected. Important a f f e c t e d values are neglected.  5.  By p r o c e e d i n g i n c r e m e n t a l l y a n d c o m p a r i n g r e s u l t s o f e a c h new p o l i c y w i t h t h e o l d , a c t o r s r e d u c e o r e l i m i n a t e r e l i a n c e on t h e o r y . ( A l l i s o n , 1971 :154)  The a g r e e m e n t o n p o l i c i e s w i t h o u t a g r e e m e n t on a f u l l s e t o f c o m p r e h e n s i v e and c o n s i s t e n t g o a l s has been c a l l e d a p o l i t i c a l o r c o a l i t i o n a l a p p r o a c h (e.g.- Dahl , 1 9 6 1 ) .  In c o n t r a s t t o t h e o r g a n i z a t i o n a l  p r o c e s s m o d e l , t h e c o a l i t i o n a l v i e w f o c u s e s on t h e p a r t i c u l a r i n d i v i d u a l s i n a d e c i s i o n making s e t t i n g .  The general  d e c i s i o n p a r a d i g m may a g a i n  be u s e d t o s u m m a r i z e t h e h i g h l i g h t s o f o t h e r work t o d e v e l o p  a capsule  p r o f i l e f o r analyzing d e c i s i o n s concerning f a c u l t y rank d e c i s i o n s i n u n i v e r s i t i e s (See Table X ) . Control v a r i a b l e s .  C o n t r o l v a r i a b l e s a r e t h o s e t h a t c a n be  c o n t r o l l e d a t a given point i n time.  In t h e c o a l i t i o n a l d e c i s i o n m o d e l ,  TABLE X SUMMARY P R O F I L E OF C O A L I T I O N A L D E C I S I O N S GENERAL D E C I S I O N PARADIGM ELEMENT Control  Variables  COALITIONAL DECISIONS RE: FACULTY Few: Role of I n d i v i d u a l Power  State Variables  Many: D e p e n d e n t on I s s u e Agenda B u i l d i n g Many E x t e r n a l P a r t i c i p a n t s  Exogenous V a r i a b l e s  Fewer Unstable  Observing  Competi ng/Multi p i e Issue S p e c i f i c Some E x t e r n a l Unorthodox C e n t r a l i z e d f o r Each A c t o r  Value  Causal  System  System  Linkages  Maintain Group Membership and/or Winning Emphasized Future Support Compl ex Ambiguous Discovered I t e r a t i v e l y ( I g n o r e d a_ p r i o r i )  Constraints  Range o f A c c e p t a b l e P r a c t i c e P r o c e s s M u s t be L e g i t i m a t e i n P a r t i c i p a n t s ' View Competition  Time  Short Issue R e c y c l i n g  Horizon  Uncertainty  Expected  Some D i m e n s i o n s Known Many S u r p r i s e s  115 t h e i n d i v i d u a l member o f t h e o r g a n i z a t i o n i s h i g h l i g h t e d a s m a k i n g a personal  d e c i s i o n t o j o i n i n the c o a l i t i o n a l a c t i v i t y . Therefore,  a  b a s i c c o n t r o l v a r i a b l e w i l l be t h e r o l e p l a y e d b y t h e i n d i v i d u a l .  One  may j o i n a c o a l i t i o n a l e n t e r p r i s e a s a p a r t o f t h e r u l i n g e l i t e ( D y e , 1 9 7 2 ) o r a s a member o f a s p e c i a l i n t e r e s t o r p r e s s u r e 1957).  The c o a l i t i o n a l model i s i m p o r t a n t  group  (Easton,  i n i t s emphasis o f the  i s s u e - s p e c i f i c nature o f n e g o t i a t i o n s ; therefore, i t i s important  to  f o c u s on t h e a v e n u e s by w h i c h i s s u e s a r r i v e on t h e a g e n d a f o r d e c i s i o n (Dahl, 1961).  T h e s e two i n t e r a c t i n t h a t t h e r e l a t i v e power o f a  c o a l i t i o n or pressure  g r o u p w i l l be an i n d i c a t o r i n a s s e s s i n g who i s  a b l e t o c o n t r o l t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n o f a g e n d a s , i . e . w h i c h i s s u e s come up for decision.  S i m i l a r l y , t h e o u t c o m e on an i s s u e w i l l d e p e n d on whose  p o s i t i o n i s a b l e t o command g r e a t e s t s u p p o r t .  Therefore,  v a r i a b l e w i l l be t h e a b i l i t y t o b r i n g t o g e t h e r  support  and t o i n f l u e n c e agendas.  a control  i n the c o a l i t i o n  On t h e o t h e r h a n d , i n d i v i d u a l s may d e c i d e t o  support o t h e r s i n t h e i r e f f o r t s t o shape e i t h e r t h e agenda o r a p o s i t i o n of  another. Beyond t h e d e c i s i o n s t o j o i n , to s u p p o r t ,  to oppose o r to a b s t a i n ,  t h e c o n t r o l v a r i a b l e s a v a i l a b l e t o an i n d i v i d u a l o r c o l l e c t i v e l y t o a group a r e l i m i t e d . process  The m a j o r a v e n u e o f o p e r a t i o n  in a coalitional  i s therefore, through the exercise o f influence. State v a r i a b l e s .  but n o t c o n t r o l .  S t a t e v a r i a b l e s a r e those open to i n f l u e n c e ,  In t h e c o a l i t i o n a l m o d e l , a l a r g e r a n g e o f v a r i a b l e s  fall into this class.  T h a t i n f l u e n c e may f o c u s on t h e i s s u e i t s e l f , f o r  example i n determining  t h e s c o p e o r d e f i n i t i o n o f t h e i s s u e ; on t h e  membership o f t h e d e c i d i n g g r o u p , e i t h e r i n i t s c o n s t i t u t i o n o r power r e l a t i v e to external pressure  g r o u p s ; o r on i n d i v i d u a l s u b g r o u p s w i t h i n  t h e d e c i d i n g g r o u p as a p o s i t i o n o f c o m p r o m i s e i s S t a t e v a r i a b l e s w i l l i n c l u d e the r e s o u r c e s  negotiated. of pressure  groups  and t h e i r i n t e r e s t i n o r a b i l i t y t o f o r m c o a l i t i o n s t h e m s e l v e s ; t h e p o l i t i c a l s t r u c t u r e o f the o r g a n i z a t i o n , i . e . the power c h a n n e l s s o u r c e s o f i n f l u e n c e w i t h i n t h e o f f i c i a l o r g a n i z a t i o n ; and t h e  and  inter-  d e p e n d e n c i e s among members o f t h e d e c i d i n g g r o u p , f o r e x a m p l e , t h e past outcomes o f e a r l i e r i s s u e s .  The s e t o f i s s u e - s p e c i f i c and  organi-  z a t i o n - s p e c i f i c v a r i a b l e s t h a t form the substance o f a p a r t i c u l a r d e c i s i o n p r o b l e m w i l l v a r y e v e n as t h e p r o b l e m u n f o l d s and one  or  another task i s attempted. An i m p o r t a n t conceptual general  f e a t u r e o f the c o a l i t i o n a l model i s i t s r e l a t i v e  r i c h n e s s , as c o m p a r e d w i t h o t h e r m o d e l s .  In t e r m s o f t h e  d e c i s i o n paradigm, t h a t r i c h n e s s h i g h l i g h t s the s t a t e v a r i a b l e s  w h i c h w i l l i n c l u d e a w i d e r r a n g e t h a n i s commonly t r e a t e d i n d e c i s i o n models. Exogenous v a r i a b l e s . be c o n t r o l l e d o r i n f l u e n c e d .  Exogenous v a r i a b l e s are those t h a t cannot In a c o a l i t i o n a l m o d e l , t h e s e w i l l  f e w e r i n number t h a n i n o t h e r m o d e l s . e x o g e n o u s a t one t i m e may  Those v a r i a b l e s t r e a t e d  n o t be a t a n o t h e r ,  be as  s i m i l a r l y , the exogenous  v a r i a b l e s i n one i s s u e a r e n o t a d e f i n i t i v e s e t . Observing  system.  G i v e n t h e l a r g e number o f r e l e v a n t  and s t a t e v a r i a b l e s , t h e o b s e r v i n g  s y s t e m i n a c o a l i t i o n i s more c o m p l e x  t h a n , f o r e x a m p l e , i n an o r g a n i z a t i o n a l p r o c e s s tional process of standardized may  h i g h l i g h t s the o r g a n i z a t i o n a l procedures,  control  the o b s e r v i n g  be h i g h l y u n o r t h o d o x and i n v e n t i v e .  view.  Whereas  s u b u n i t and t h e  organizaoperation  system i n a c o a l i t i o n a l  view  The i m p o r t a n c e o f t h e p o s i t i o n  117 t a k e n by i n d i v i d u a l s on o n e o r a n o t h e r  i s s u e and o f t h e r e l a t i v e power  o f t h o s e i n d i v i d u a l s makes i t e s s e n t i a l t h a t i n f o r m a t i o n throughout  the o r g a n i z a t i o n and the d e c i d i n g group.  reside  I t i s , however,  h i g h l y l i k e l y t h a t a number o f c o m p e t i n g i n f o r m a t i o n c o l l e c t i n g systems w i l l operate, each seeking to increase the bargaining advantage o f i t s representative i n the d e c i s i o n group.  T h e o b s e r v i n g s y s t e m may t h e n  have i n t e r n a l c h e c k s f o r v a l i d i t y o f i t s d a t a s i n c e p o o r i n f o r m a t i o n c o u l d be e m b a r r a s s i n g  to i t s p r i n c i p a l . Maintaining each  observing  s y s t e m w i l l be p a r t o f t h e v a r i o u s s e l f - i n t e r e s t s o f c o a l i t i o n members, and t h e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f a n o t h e r ' s  may be t h e s u b j e c t o f some i n f l u -  ence. Value system. another  The v a l u e t o i n d i v i d u a l s o f a c h i e v i n g one o r  outcome i s r e l a t e d t o both t h e outcome i t s e l f and t h e i r f u t u r e  a b i l i t y to a f f e c t other outcomes. suboptimal  p l a n w i l l be s u p p o r t e d  support i n the future.  I t may be t h a t an u n a c c e p t a b l e a t one t i m e on t h e b a s i s o f  or  promised  The d o m i n a n t v a l u e i s m a i n t a i n i n g membership i n  the d e c i d i n g group, a l o n g w i t h a r e a s o n a b l e  p r o b a b i l i t y o f meeting  some p e r s o n a l l y p r e f e r a b l e o b j e c t i v e s on some o f t h e i s s u e s t h a t w i l l come u p .  T h e r e f o r e , t h e r e w i l l be s u p p o r t f o r c o n t i n u a n c e  coalitional Causal  system r a t h e r than major r e f o r m o r relationships.  o f the  replacement.  The cause and e f f e c t r e l a t i o n s h i p s between  a c t i o n s and consequences are n o t needed before d e c i s i o n s a r e taken, since the e f f e c t s a r e discovered through (Schmidtlein, 1974).  the actual r e s u l t s o f decisions  S i m i l a r l y , s i n c e change emerges from  remedial  a d a p t a t i o n , i . e . r e c y c l i n g i s s u e s , a n d may i n c l u d e s u r p r i s e s i t i s necessary  to understand  t h e l i n k a g e s i n v o l v e d i n making change  before  118 taking the decision. Constraints.  The o v e r r i d i n g c o n s t r a i n t b i n d i n g t h e c o a l i t i o n a l  model v a r i a b l e s i s t h a t t h e p r o c e s s  be l e g i t i m a t e .  This i s i n contrast  t o t h e r a t i o n a l model w h i c h e m p h a s i z e s e x p e r t i s e a n d c a l c u l a t i o n i n t e r m s o f known g o a l s .  The n e g o t i a t i o n mechanism i n c o a l i t i o n a l  d e c i s i o n c a n t o u c h upon a l m o s t a n y v a r i a b l e a n d w i l l be s u b j e c t t o some l i m i t a t i o n s o f r e s o u r c e s , h o w e v e r , i t s p r i m a r y r e q u i r e m e n t for l e g i t i m a c y (Schmidtlein, 1974).  is  I n d e e d , t h e c o a l i t i o n a l model  comes i n t o p l a y when r e s o u r c e s a r e s c a r c e , a n d i t i s c o m p e t i t i o n f o r them t h a t m u s t be c o n t r o l l e d i n t h i s v i e w . Time h o r i z o n .  C o a l i t i o n a l d e c i s i o n emphasizes issues which,  t y p i c a l l y , a r e b e i n g d e a l t w i t h i n some p a r t i c u l a r t i m e - f r a m e .  The  need f o r " m a i n t a i n i n g o p t i o n s and a f l e x i b l e b a r g a i n i n g p o s i t i o n d e c i s i o n makers t o r e s i s t committing much i n a d v a n c e o f d e a d l i n e s "  causes  themselves to courses o f action  (Schmidtlein, 1974:6).  A t t h e same t i m e ,  t h e p o s s i b i l i t y o f r e c y c l i n g an i s s u e i f s o m e t h i n g i s w r o n g w i t h i t s r e s o l u t i o n , o r i f i t i s ^ r e a s s e s s e d as being i n a p p r o p r i a t e i n the f u t u r e , gives the long range i m p l i c a t i o n s o f d e c i s i o n s a very low p r i o r i t y i n present  debates. Uncertainty structure.  The l a r g e number o f v a r i a b l e s s u b j e c t  o n l y t o i n f l u e n c e , a n d t h e s m a l l n u m b e r o f c o n t r o l v a r i a b l e s makes t h e c o a l i t i o n a l model s e n s i t i v e t o t h e u n c e r t a i n t y o f t h o s e v a r i a b l e s . Failure to attend to matters  o f c a u s a l r e l a t i o n s h i p s makes u n e x p e c t e d  outcomes l i k e l y , however, t h e a b i l i t y and even p r o p e n s i t y f o r r e v i e w i n g issues i n the future o f f s e t s the perceived e f f e c t s o f uncertainty. a hedge a g a i n s t c h a o s , however, d e c i s i o n s t a k e a c t i o n w h i c h o n l y  As  m a r g i n a l l y d i f f e r s from the p r a c t i c e a t present  (Lindblom, 1965).  At  t h e same t i m e , u n c e r t a i n t y i n t h e p r o c e s s a n d i n u n d e r s t a n d i n g t h e i m p l i c a t i o n s o f a c t i o n s i n c r e a s e s a m b i g u i t y i n b a r g a i n i n g which c o n s e n s u s and b a r g a i n i n g p o s i t i o n s " ( S c h m i d t l e i n ,  "aids  1974:8).  FACULTY RANK D I S T R I B U T I O N D E C I S I O N S There are a v a r i e t y o f d e c i s i o n s which can a f f e c t the f a c u l t y rank d i s t r i b u t i o n o f a u n i v e r s i t y .  T h e y may be d i v i d e d i n t o two  basic  c l a s s e s u s i n g a f r a m e w o r k f o r c a t e g o r i z i n g a c a d e m i c a p p o i n t m e n t s on the b a s i s . o f academic rank and d u r a t i o n o f appointment to d e s c r i b e f a c u l t y r a n k d i s t r i b u t i o n . T h i s f r a m e w o r k was u s e d i n C h a p t e r F o u r t o organize a review o f f a c u l t y flow models.  The p u r p o s e o f t h i s s e c t i o n  i s to o r g a n i z e a r e v i e w o f f a c u l t y rank d i s t r i b u t i o n d e c i s i o n s . The b a s i c d i v i s i o n o f f a c u l t y r a n k d i s t r i b u t i o n d e c i s i o n s c a n be made i n t e r m s o f how t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n i t s e l f i s t o be t r e a t e d .  One  c l a s s o f d e c i s i o n s c o n c e r n s the terms used i n the framework, i . e . rank and d u r a t i o n .  The s e c o n d c l a s s c o n c e r n s a d d i t i o n s t o , s u b t r a c t i o n s  f r o m , and c h a n g e s w i t h i n a g i v e n d i s t r i b u t i o n f r a m e w o r k . C h a n g i n g t h e Frame o f R e f e r e n c e The two b a s i c e l e m e n t s d e f i n i n g a f a c u l t y r a n k d i s t r i b u t i o n a r e t h e n o m i n a l r a n k s by w h i c h p o s i t i o n s a r e i d e n t i f i e d and t h e n a t u r e o f t h e t i m e c o m m i t m e n t t o i t , i . e . r a n k and d u r a t i o n o r t e n u r e s t a t u s . academic ranks included i n the conventional  d i s t r i b u t i o n are the  t r a d i t i o n a l p r o f e s s o r i a l g r a d e s and a n o t h e r r a n k , e.g.  Instructor,  which i s u s u a l l y i m m e d i a t e l y below A s s i s t a n t P r o f e s s o r  (von  1977).  The  Zur-Muehlen,  In e a c h c a s e , t h e i n c u m b e n t h o l d s a f u l l - t i m e a p p o i n t m e n t , w h o s e -  d u r a t i o n i s a t l e a s t t w e l v e months ( S t a t i s t i c s Canada, 1977).  However,  the f u l l complement o f academic or t e a c h i n g s t a f f a t a u n i v e r s i t y i n c l u d e s o t h e r r a n k s and t y p e s o f a p p o i n t m e n t ,  f o r example, s e s s i o n a l  i n s t r u c t o r s , v i s i t i n g p r o f e s s o r s , and p a r t - t i m e p r o f e s s o r s (CAUT, 1 9 7 9 ) . The d u r a t i o n o f an a p p o i n t m e n t , a n d i n p a r t i c u l a r t h e p r a c t i c e o f awarding tenure i s r e f l e c t e d i n the o t h e r dimension o f f a c u l t y rank distribution.  T h e c o n c e p t o f t e n u r e has come u n d e r s c r u t i n y a t v a r i o u s  t i m e s ( e . g . S m i t h and a s s o c i a t e s , 1 9 7 3 ) and i s t h e s u b j e c t o f c u r r e n t a t t e n t i o n i n the l i t e r a t u r e (e.g. O i , 1979).  The g e n e r a l t h r u s t o f  such a t t e n t i o n i s to p o i n t out the f a i l i n g s o f the tenure system  and  p r o p o s e a l t e r n a t i v e s s u c h as a b o l i t i o n o f t e n u r e ( O ' t o o l e , 1 9 7 8 ) , o r p e r i o d i c t e n u r e r e v i e w w i t h the o p t i o n o f r e - t e n u r i n g (Mayr,  1978).  S i n c e t h e r e a r e , o r c o u l d be, o t h e r elements i n c l u d e d i n a f a c u l t y r a n k d i s t r i b u t i o n i t may be o b s e r v e d t h a t t h e r e i s e v i d e n c e o f a need t o a n a l y z e p o s s i b l e changes i n the terms d e f i n i n g f a c u l t y rank distribution.  To a l a r g e d e g r e e , i n t e r e s t i n c h a n g i n g t e n u r e p r a c t i c e s  o r academic ranks i n c l u d e d i n a n a l y s i s i s l i n k e d to o t h e r measures u n i v e r s i t y m a n a g e m e n t , s u c h as s a l a r y e x p e n s e s teaching resources.  of  ( e . g . O i , 1979) o r  I t has been shown t h a t l i n k a g e s t o i n p u t o r o u t p u t  i n d i c a t o r s a r e u n c l e a r ( s e e C h a p t e r F o u r ) , and may a l s o be o b s e r v e d t h a t w i t h o u t some g u i d a n c e as t o t h e m a n a g e r i a l f o c u s t h a t c h a n g e s  to  f a c u l t y rank d i s t r i b u t i o n would t r y t o s e r v e , i t i s d o u b l y d i f f i c u l t to d e v e l o p f u r t h e r the b a s i c framework e s t a b l i s h e d i n the p r e s e n t s t u d y . In f a c t , t h e r e a r e no e x a m p l e s  i n Canada o f a u n i v e r s i t y  abandoning  t h e t e n u r e s y s t e m , and r e c e n t e v i d e n c e ( e . g . S t a t i s t i c s C a n a d a ,  1979)  i n d i c a t e s t h a t t h e number o f f a c u l t y n o t h o l d i n g p r o f e s s o r i a l r a n k i s d e c r e a s i n g , h o w e v e r t h o s e d a t a do n o t p e r t a i n t o s e s s i o n a l o r p a r t time  appointments.  In summary, t h e r e may be v a l u e i n c h a n g i n g t h e f r a m e o f reference  f o r f a c u l t y rank d i s t r i b u t i o n s .  that s i g n i f i c a n t decisions and,  therefore,  However, i t i s n o t e v i d e n t  i n t h a t d i r e c t i o n a r e b e i n g made i n C a n a d a  t h e t o p i c w i l l n o t be p u r s u e d f u r t h e r i n t h e p r e s e n t  study. Changing t h e S i z e and C o m p o s i t i o n o f F a c u l t y Rank D i s t r i b u t i o n s Decisions two  t o change a given  basic types o f change.  modified  f a c u l t y r a n k d i s t r i b u t i o n may  involve  F i r s t , t h e s i z e o f a d i s t r i b u t i o n may be  by a d d i n g members t o i t , o r d e l e t i n g some f r o m i t .  Additions  o r d e l e t i o n s may, o f c o u r s e , be n e t r e s u l t a n t s a n d do n o t n e c e s s a r i l y i n v o l v e o n l y t h e r e m o v a l o f e x i s t i n g p e r s o n n e l o r t h e a d d i t i o n o f new ones.  T h e o t h e r b a s i c c h a n g e c a n be i n t h e way members o f a f a c u l t y  d i s t r i b u t i o n a r e a c t u a l l y d i s t r i b u t e d among i t s v a r i o u s f i r s t type o f decision involves  states.  involves h i r i n g o r removing f a c u l t y ; the second  promotion and granting  o f tenure.  H i r i n g and removal d e c i s i o n s .  The d e c i s i o n t o a d d o r d e l e t e  members o f f a c u l t y n e c e s s a r i l y i n v o l v e m a t t e r s o f r e s o u r c e s , l y money f o r s a l a r i e s ( M o r t i m e r a n d T i e r n e y ,  1979).  particular-  Looking a t the  a b i l i t y t o m a i n t a i n o r a t t r a c t a new member o f f a c u l t y i s an in looking a t the a b i l i t y to maintain or acquire her s a l a r y .  The  exercise  funds to pay h i s o r  In t h i s l i g h t , t h e p e r s o n n e l d e c i s i o n s a r e l i n k e d t o  budget d e c i s i o n s concerning t h e maintenance or a c q u i s i t i o n o f a budget increment f o r salary  purposes.  The means by w h i c h f a c u l t y members a r e r e m o v e d f r o m a f a c u l t y d i s t r i b u t i o n are c l e a r l y l i n k e d to the question e i g h t p r e v a i l i n g methods o f reducing  o f funds.  In T a b l e X I ,  s t a f f a r e l i s t e d i n rank o r d e r o f  122 a p p l i c a t i o n i n o v e r 160 A m e r i c a n i n s t i t u t i o n s . s t a t e t h a t " s t a f f r e d u c t i o n is only one  way  Mortimer  and  Tierney  to accomplish s i g n i f i c a n t  expenditure r e d u c t i o n , " but c i t e a combination  o f r e d u c t i o n s and  g r o w t h i n t h e s a l a r i e s p a i d t o f a c u l t y as an a l t e r n a t i v e  slower  (1979:37).  C l e a r l y , t h e e m p h a s i s on f a c u l t y n u m b e r s i s a c o n t i n u i n g c o n c e r n i n t i m e s of f i n a n c i a l exigency problem  ( S m a l l , 1979)  i s a g e n e r i c one.  (e.g. zero-base  budgeting)  Although  however, the incremental o t h e r models have been  the incremental approach  budgeting proposed  i s t h o u g h t o be i n  m o s t common u s e i n c o n t e m p o r a r y u n i v e r s i t i e s (Adams, H a n k i n s Schroeder,  and  1978:54). T A B L E XI METHODS OF REDUCING U N I V E R S I T Y S T A F F  METHOD  CASES  PERCENT  277  31  201  23  Terminating part-time faculty  125  14  Terminating teaching assistants  118  13  51  6  S e n i o r i t y of tenured f a c u l t y  48  5  Reassignment  35  4  Performance  34  4  Not f i l l i n g  vacancies  Terminating nontenured  Early  faculty  retirements  ( S p r e n g e r and S c h u l t z , Budgeting behaviour  i n u n i v e r s i t y d e p a r t m e n t s has b e e n  analyzed  by s e v e r a l s t u d i e s , u n d e r c o n d i t i o n s o f b o t h s c a r c e a n d l e s s s c a r c e resources.  O f p a r t i c u l a r i n t e r e s t i s a s e r i e s o f s t u d i e s s t a r t e d by  1974)  P f e f f e r and S a l a n c i k ( 1 9 7 4 ) and e x t e n d e d  by H i l l s and M a h o n e y  (1978).  P f e f f e r and S a l a n c i k p o s e d a b u r e a u c r a t i c model and a c o a l i t i o n a l m o d e l o f b u d g e t d e c i s i o n m a k i n g as p r o v i d i n g a l t e r n a t i v e e x p l a n a t i o n s f o r r e s o u r c e a l l o c a t i o n s . T h e y f o u n d t h a t t h e c o a l i t i o n a l model supported  was  i n cases i n v o l v i n g the a l l o c a t i o n o f scarce resources i n t h a t  p o w e r i n d i c a t o r s w e r e f o u n d to be more p r e d i c t i v e o f s c a r c e  resource  a l l o c a t i o n s ( S a l a n c i k and P f e f f e r , 1 9 7 4 ) . H i l l s and Mahoney s o u g h t t o t e s t t h e l i n k a g e s t o c o n d i t i o n s o f g r e a t e r o r l e s s e r s c a r c i t y t h a t l e d to s u p p o r t f o r e i t h e r the c r a t i c o r the c o a l i t i o n a l model.  bureau-  They r e p o r t t h a t "the r e l a t i v e  abundance or s c a r c i t y o f r e s o u r c e s a v a i l a b l e f o r a l l o c a t i o n i s a s i g n i f i c a n t i n f l u e n c e i n the budgeting  process"(1978:464).  In p a r t i c u l a r ,  they found t h a t a b u r e a u c r a t i c c r i t e r i o n , " r e l a t i v e workload,  was  i n f l u e n t i a l i n the a l l o c a t i o n o f resources d u r i n g the period o f a b u n d a n t r e s o u r c e s and o f l i t t l e i n f l u e n c e d u r i n g t h e resources" (1978:464).  period of scarce  On t h e o t h e r h a n d , " t h e p r e d o m i n a n t i n f l u e n c e  i n the a l l o c a t i o n o f incremental d i s c r e t i o n a r y resources d u r i n g the p e r i o d o f s c a r c e r e s o u r c e s was e x t e r n a l l y b a s e d p o w e r a s  represented  by t h e e x i s t e n c e o f a d v i s o r y b o a r d s , an i n f l u e n c e n o t as r e a d i l y apparent during periods o f abundant resources" (1978:464). A l l o c a t i o n s during the p e r i o d o f scarce resources followed p r o p o r t i o n a t e d e c r e a s e m e t h o d t h a t C y e r t and M a r c h ( 1 9 6 3 ) p r o p o s e be u s e d as an a r b i t r a r y r u l e .  the will  H o w e v e r , on t h e b a s i s o f t h e i r e v i d e n c e ,  H i l l s and M a h o n e y c o n c l u d e t h a t " w h i l e a l l s u b u n i t s w e r e f a c e d w i t h a l o s s i n r e s o u r c e s , the powerful  s u b u n i t s w e r e a b l e t o g e t them b a c k "  (1978:464). The d e c i s i o n m o d e l s u s e d by S a l a n c i k a n d P f e f f e r ( 1 9 7 4 ) and  by  124 H i l l s and M a h o n e y ( 1 9 7 8 ) a r e c o n s i s t e n t w i t h t h e o r g a n i z a t i o n a l and c o a l i t i o n a l m o d e l s s u m m a r i z e d i n t h i s c h a p t e r .  process  For example, the  " b u r e a u c r a t i c " m o d e l u s e d by H i l l s and M a h o n e y b u i l d s s p e c i f i c a l l y on t h e b o u n d e d r a t i o n a l i t y o f S i m o n ( 1 9 5 7 ) and u s e s h i s t o r i c a l d a t a as p r e d i c t o r s o f f u t u r e c r i t e r i a , e . g . w o r k l o a d .  year-to-year  S i m i l a r l y , the  c o a l i t i o n a l model t h e y u s e i s b a s e d i n t h e power s t u d i e s o f p o l i t i c a l s c i e n c e and u s e s t h e e x i s t e n c e o f an e x t e r n a l p r e s s u r e g r o u p as an a l l y i n i n t e r n a l d e c i s i o n s as a p o i n t o f  reference.  S i n c e the budget o f a u n i v e r s i t y s u b u n i t i s composed o f several items, the i m p l i c a t i o n s o f budgeting and do n o t r e l a t e e x c l u s i v e l y t o p e r s o n n e l typical f o r seventy  s t u d i e s are  matters.  However, i t i s  to e i g h t y p e r c e n t o f a departmental  b u d g e t t o be d e v o t e d  to f a c u l t y s a l a r i e s (Mortimer  or f a c u l t y  and T i e r n e y ,  t h e r e f o r e i t i s l i k e l y t h a t the impact o f changes i n budgeting  multi-faceted  1979),  incremental  w i l l a f f e c t t h e s i z e o f a u n i t ' s c o m p l e m e n t o f f a c u l t y members  and t h e f i n d i n g s r e l a t e d t o c o n d i t i o n s o f s c a r c i t y may  be s a i d to r e l a t e  to the a d d i t i o n to or r e d u c t i o n o f f a c u l t y rank d i s t r i b u t i o n .  Provided  t h a t t h e l i n k s b e t w e e n c o n d i t i o n s o f g r e a t e r and l e s s e r s c a r c i t y and mode o f b u d g e t i n g  h o l d ( t h e r e i s no e v i d e n c e  to t e s t f u r t h e r t h e  parti-  c u l a r r o l e o f f a c u l t y s a l a r i e s as p a r t o f b u d g e t i n g ) t h e n t h e i m p l i c a ^ t i o n s f o r the making o f h i r e or f i r e d e c i s i o n s are  profound.  In summary, t h e H i l l s and M a h o n e y f i n d i n g s i n p a r t i c u l a r i n d i c a t e t h a t t h e d e c i s i o n t o add f a c u l t y may  be b a s e d on o r g a n i z a t i o n a l  criteria,  n o t a b l y r e l a t i v e workload, i_f the u n i v e r s i t y i s i n a p e r i o d o f r e l a t i v e l y low s c a r c i t y o f r e s o u r c e s . r e s t r a i n t , pressure to reduce i n t h e c a s e o f t h o s e who  On t h e o t h e r h a n d , d u r i n g t i m e s o f f i s c a l a l l u n i t s p r o p o r t i o n a t e l y w i l l be  have s t r o n g b a s e s o f p o w e r .  reduced  Briefly, i t is  125 p o s s i b l e t h a t o r g a n i z a t i o n a l p r o c e s s d e c i s i o n m a k i n g may p r e v a i l d u r i n g p e r i o d s o f a b u n d a n c e , a n d c o a l i t i o n a l d e c i s i o n m a k i n g may s u p p l a n t i t d u r i n g times o f s c a r c i t y , a t l e a s t so f a r as t h e a d d i t i o n and d e l e t i o n of p o s i t i o n s i s concerned. Promotion and tenure d e c i s i o n s .  D e c i s i o n s t o promote o r g r a n t  t e n u r e t o a f a c u l t y member w i l l c a u s e t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f f a c u l t y among the ranks and w i t h r e s p e c t to d u r a t i o n o f appointment  t o change.  The  d e c i s i o n s a f f e c t i n g a member o f f a c u l t y a r e s u b j e c t t o a d i f f e r e n t l e v e l and i n t e n s i t y o f s c r u t i n y t h a n t h o s e c o n c e r n i n g t h e o p e n i n g o f a p o s i t i o n o r f a i l u r e t o r e p l a c e a p o s t v a c a t e d by a f a c u l t y member who l e a v e s (e.g. Corson, 1 979). The r e q u i r e m e n t s f o r a w a r d i n g t e n u r e a n d f o r a w a r d i n g a h i g h e r r a n k a r e commonly l a i d o u t i n c o n s i d e r a b l e d e t a i l i n f a c u l t y h a n d b o o k s and p o l i c y o r p r o c e d u r e s m a n u a l s o f i n d i v i d u a l u n i v e r s i t i e s , i n a d d i t i o n n a t i o n a l a s s o c i a t i o n s o f p r o f e s s o r s i n both t h e United S t a t e s o f America and C a n a d a p r o v i d e d e t a i l e d s t a t e m e n t s o f a c a d e m i c CAUT, 1 9 7 9 ) .  (AAUP, 1 9 7 1 ;  The c r i t e r i a f o r awards o f t e n u r e and p r o m o t i o n and t h e  p r o c e s s by w h i c h j u d g m e n t s statements.  freedom  a r e t o be made a r e p a r t o f t h o s e d e t a i l e d  In s e v e r a l c a s e s w h e r e i n d i v i d u a l f a c u l t y members have  c o n t e s t e d a d e c i s i o n made b y an a c a d e m i c  body, e . g . f a i l u r e t o award  t e n u r e , t h e o n l y b a s i s on w h i c h an o u t s i d e a g e n c y h a s made  assessments  o f t h e j u s t i c e o f t h e d e c i s i o n i s w h e t h e r due p r o c e s s was a f f o r d e d t h e individual.  T h e r e f o r e , i t h a s been n o t e d t h a t "a n o r m a l  nonreappointment  o f a l i m i t e d o r indeterminate appointment  nonrenewal  or  does n o t  g i v e r i s e to t h e l e g a l n e c e s s i t y o f a hearing" (Holloway, 1 979:146). The s u b s t a n c e o f t h e s e o b s e r v a t i o n s a n d s t a t e m e n t s by a c a d e m i c t i o n s i s to emphasize  organiza-  that d e c i s i o n s about tenure and promotion a r e  126 a c a d e m i c d e c i s i o n s t h a t m u s t be made i n a c c o r d a n c e w i t h t h e p r o c e s s e s p r e s c r i b e d f o r the s i t u a t i o n i n u n i v e r s i t y p o l i c y and agreements  with the  facul ty. An e x c e p t i o n t o t h e g e n e r a l r e q u i r e m e n t f o r due p r o c e s s i n r e v i e w i n g p r o m o t i o n a n d t e n u r e d e c i s i o n s i n v o l v e s t h e i m p o s i t i o n o f an a r b i t r a r y q u o t a o n t h e number o f i n d i v i d u a l s who may h o l d s e n i o r r a n k o r tenured p o s i t i o n s ( D i l l , 1974).  A quota system would o v e r r i d e t h e normal  academic c r i t e r i a i n c o n s i d e r i n g i n d i v i d u a l s f o r promotion o r tenure. I f , f o r e x a m p l e , a r a n k o r t e n u r e q u o t a h a d b e e n m e t p r e v i o u s l y , no further appointments entertained.  t o s e n i o r r a n k o r a w a r d s o f t e n u r e w o u l d be  T h e r e f o r e , i n d i v i d u a l s a f f e c t e d by q u o t a would n o t e n t e r  i n t o a promotion o r tenure review process because t h e o v e r r i d i n g c r i t e r i o n , i . e . quota, had p r e c l u d e d t h a t o p t i o n . S e t t i n g o f q u o t a s a s a c o n s t r a i n t o f f a c u l t y s t a f f i n g may be made on f i n a n c i a l o r a c a d e m i c g r o u n d s  (e.g. Bel anger, 1979).  The p r i m a r y  v e h i c l e f o r e x e r c i s i n g c o n s t r a i n t on numbers o f f a c u l t y h a s been cial  finan-  ( e . g . P e t e r s o n , 1 9 7 9 ) , a n d l i t t l e a t t e n t i o n has been d e v o t e d t o  academic c r i t e r i a , e.g. p r e s e r v i n g the s t r u c t u r a l i n t e g r i t y o f a d i s c i p l i n e (Belanger, 1979).  I t h a s been shown t h a t f i n a n c i a l  con-  s t r a i n t s may be l i n k e d t o b u d g e t i n g d e c i s i o n s a n d , p a r t i c u l a r l y i n times o f r e l a t i v e l y s c a r c e r e s o u r c e s , t h e r e i s evidence t h a t such d e c i s i o n s a r e made on t h e b a s i s o f a c o a l i t i o n a l d e c i s i o n m o d e l . Another class o f d e c i s i o n s concerns the termination o f f a c u l t y who h o l d t e n u r e , b u t t h e r e q u i r e m e n t f o r d u e p r o c e s s has been  upheld  here as well (Holloway, 1979) and t h e requirement f o r a u n i v e r s i t y t o show e i t h e r " c a u s e " r e l a t i n g t o i n a d e q u a t e p e r f o r m a n c e o f a f a c u l t y member, o r f i n a n c i a l e x i g e n c y , w h e r e i n i t i s a b l e t o d e f a u l t on a  c o n t r a c t f o r c o n t i n u e d employment. In summary, t h e l i t e r a t u r e i n d i c a t e s t h a t a s e t o f d e t a i l e d p r o c e s s e s f o r making tenure and promotion d e c i s i o n s e x i s t s and t h a t u n i v e r s i t i e s a r e bound t o a b i d e by them.  I t may be c o n c l u d e d t h e r e f o r e ,  t h a t t h e model f o r s u c h d e c i s i o n s i s t h e o r g a n i z a t i o n a l p r o c e s s m o d e l , since those p r e s c r i b e d procedures involve the operation o f s p e c i f i c o r g a n i z a t i o n a l s u b u n i t s and r e q u i r e p a r t i c u l a r k i n d s o f i n p u t to p r o d u c e o n e o f a v e r y l i m i t e d s e t o f p o s s i b l e o u t c o m e s ( e . g . CAUT, 1 9 7 9 ) However, i f f o r r e a s o n s o f a p r i m a r i l y f i n a n c i a l n a t u r e quotas a r e a p p l i e d to the s e n i o r ranks and tenured p o p u l a t i o n , the o p e r a t i o n o f t h o s e p r o c e s s e s may be p r e c l u d e d . SUMMARY T h i s c h a p t e r h a s d e v e l o p e d summary p r o f i l e s o f two m o d e l s o f u n i v e r s i t y d e c i s i o n ; t h e o r g a n i z a t i o n a l p r o c e s s and c o a l i t i o n a l and i d e n t i f i e d s u p p o r t f o r e a c h w i t h r e s p e c t t o f a c u l t y r a n k  models  distribu-  t i o n d e c i s i o n s . T h e two p r o f i l e s h a v e b e e n d e v e l o p e d i n t e r m s o f t h e general d e c i s i o n paradigm to provide a conceptual g r i d f o r comparison with the c h a r a c t e r i s t i c p r o f i l e o f a n a l y t i c a l models d e a l i n g w i t h f a c u l t y rank d i s t r i b u t i o n .  The f i n a l s e c t i o n o f t h e c h a p t e r  attempts  t o i d e n t i f y s u p p o r t f o r one o r a n o t h e r m o d e l a s e a c h r e l a t e s t o a s e t o f d e c i s i o n s d e a l i n g with f a c u l t y rank  distribution.  The s u p p o r t f o r p a r t i c u l a r d e c i s i o n s d e a l i n g w i t h f a c u l t y  rank  matters i s l i m i t e d to i n f e r e n c e s from budgetary s t u d i e s and o b s e r v a t i o n s o f t h e r e q u i r e m e n t s f o r due p r o c e s s i n d e a l i n g w i t h p a r t i c u l a r members.  faculty  On t h e b a s i s o f t h o s e i t e m s , one may h y p o t h e s i z e t h a t t h e  o r g a n i z a t i o n a l p r o c e s s model i s d e s c r i p t i v e o f d e c i s i o n s c o n c e r n i n g  128 p r o m o t i o n and t e n u r e , and d e c i s i o n s t o add f a c u l t y d u r i n g t i m e s o f r e l a t i v e l y abundant resources.  S i m i l a r l y , d e c i s i o n s t o add o r  f a c u l t y members o r t o a f f e c t p r o m o t i o n and t e n u r e d e c i s i o n s  delete  through  t h e i m p o s i t i o n o f q u o t a s may  be made on t h e b a s i s o f p o w e r i n a c o a l i -  t i o n d e c i s i o n making process  under conditions o f r e l a t i v e l y scarce  resources.  Supporting  that view, Peterson  o f d e c l i n e " d e c i s i o n s on i m p o r t a n t  observes that, in a state  p o l i c y matters,  including faculty  s t a f f i n g and a c a d e m i c p r i o r i t i e s , f o c u s more on e x t e r n a l  concerns,  a t e n d e n c y t o become more c e n t r a l i z e d , and a r e e x p r e s s e d  as  have  formal  d i r e c t i v e s w i t h a n a l y t i c a l j u s t i f i c a t i o n s " (1 979:151 ). Implied  in Peterson's  influence important of decline.  observation  i s a f a i l u r e of a n a l y s i s to  f a c u l t y s t a f f i n g p o l i c y matters under  That apparent f a i l u r e underscores  f a c u l t y rank d i s t r i b u t i o n as a p o l i c y concern  the importance o f the as w e l l a s t h e p r o b l e m  o f enhancing u n i v e r s i t y d e c i s i o n making through a n a l y s i s . ing chapter  conditions  The  c o m p a r e s t h e summary p r o f i l e s o f u n i v e r s i t y d e c i s i o n m a k i n g  with the p r o f i l e o f a n a l y t i c a l models to i d e n t i f y p o s s i b l e  factors  which c o n t r i b u t e t o o r d e t r a c t from the l i n k between a n a l y s i s decision.  follow-  and  129 Chapter Six ANALYSIS T h i s c h a p t e r c o m p a r e s two summary p r o f i l e s o f o r g a n i z a t i o n a l d e c i s i o n processes in u n i v e r s i t i e s to the p r o f i l e of f a c u l t y flow models.  D r a w i n g on t h e e x a m p l e o f f a c u l t y r a n k d i s t r i b u t i o n , t h e  summary o f f a c u l t y f l o w m o d e l s i s c o m p a r e d f i r s t t o a p r o f i l e o f o r g a n i z a t i o n a l p r o c e s s d e c i s i o n making and then t o a p r o f i l e o f c o a l i t i o n a l d e c i s i o n making.  S u p p o r t f o r the models o f d e c i s i o n as t h e y  h a v e b e e n shown t o a p p l y t o f a c u l t y r a n k d i s t r i b u t i o n d e c i s i o n s i s incorporated  i n a review o f the degree o f f i t between f a c u l t y flow  models and f a c u l t y rank d i s t r i b u t i o n d e c i s i o n s . a t t e n t i o n to the assumptions  T h a t r e v i e w draws  about d e c i s i o n making t h a t are i d e n t i f i e d  i n t h e d e s i g n o f t h e a n a l y t i c a l m o d e l s , a n d some o b s e r v a t i o n s a r e made on t h e a p p a r e n t gap b e t w e e n n o r m a t i v e a n d d e s c r i p t i v e t h e o r i e s f o r f a c u l t y rank d i s t r i b u t i o n d e c i s i o n s . The g e n e r a l d e c i s i o n paradigm  i s r e v i e w e d as an a n a l y t i c a l  c o n s t r u c t w i t h a t t e n t i o n t o i t s a p p l i c a t i o n i n the p r e s e n t s t u d y and i t s p o s s i b l e r o l e i n the f u t u r e development  of theory.  S i m i l a r l y , the  "two- w o r l d " c o n c e p t i s r e v i e w e d a s an a i d t o f u t u r e  inquiry.  COMPARING MODEL P R O F I L E S T h i s s t u d y f o c u s e d on t h e q u e s t i o n o f c o n c e p t u a l  congruence  between the d e s i g n o f a n a l y s i s i n a i d o f d e c i s i o n and the a c t u a l making o f d e c i s i o n s .  The c a s e s t u d y p r o v i d e s a summary p r o f i l e o f  a c l a s s o f a n a l y t i c a l m o d e l s a n d two a l t e r n a t i v e m o d e l s o f o r g a n i z a t i o n a l d e c i s i o n as t h e y a r e s u p p o r t e d f o r d e c i s i o n s  concerning  130 the case problem. over-arching  T h e p r o f i l e s h a v e b e e n d e v e l o p e d i n t e r m s o f a common  p a r a d i g m o f d e c i s i o n a n d may, t h e r e f o r e , b e c o m p a r e d  d i r e c t l y i n terms o f t h e elements o f t h a t paradigm. Table XII assembles the p r o f i l e o f a n a l y t i c a l models o f f a c u l t y flow and the p r o f i l e s o f o r g a n i z a t i o n a l d e c i s i o n processes.  The  c o m p a r i s o n s among them f i r s t e x a m i n e t h e c o n g r u e n c e b e t w e e n f a c u l t y f l o w models a n d t h e c o a l i t i o n a l model o f d e c i s i o n . w i t h some o b s e r v a t i o n s bution  T h i s s e c t i o n then  concludes  about f a c u l t y flow models and f a c u l t y rank d i s t r i -  decisions.  F a c u l t y Flow Models Compared t o Organizational Process Decision The p r o f i l e o f f a c u l t y f l o w m o d e l s i n t e r m s o f t h e g e n e r a l  decision  paradigm i s c l o s e l y congruenet with the p r o f i l e o f o r g a n i z a t i o n a l decisions concerning  process  f a c u l t y rank d i s t r i b u t i o n . Both types o f models use  a few c o n t r o l v a r i a b l e s and s t a t e v a r i a b l e s , e.g. n e t d i s t r i b u t i o n s i z e , w h i c h d e p e n d on s t a n d a r d c o n t r a c t s a n d a l t e r n a t i v e s f o r t h e i r d e f i n i t i o n . Both models i n c l u d e so few c o n t r o l and s t a t e v a r i a b l e s t h a t most v a r i a b l e s are and continue  t o be o m i t t e d .  The observing  i n t h e two m o d e l s , w i t h s i n g l e s o u r c e s  systems a r e very s i m i l a r  o f data p e r t a i n i n g to i n t e r n a l  o r g a n i z a t i o n a l matters being used t o the e x c l u s i o n o f external variables.  The i n s t i t u t i o n a l records used i n f a c u l t y flow models r e l a t e  to routine o r g a n i z a t i o n a l matters,  with emphasis on h i s t o r i c a l data.  The v a l u e s y s t e m s h i g h l i g h t e d i n f a c u l t y f l o w m o d e l s a n d o r g a n i z a t i o n a l process d e c i s i o n d i f f e r i n degree, r a t h e r than i n kind.  The  f a c u l t y f l o w m o d e l s do n o t p l a c e a n y p a r t i c u l a r v a l u e o n a p a r t i c u l a r  TABLE X I I SUMMARY P R O F I L E S OF A N A L Y T I C A L MODELS OF FACULTY FLOW AND D E S C R I P T I V E MODELS OF U N I V E R S I T Y DECISION PROCESSES [ B a s e d on W e a t h e r s b y ' s ( 1 9 7 5 ) G e n e r a l GENERAL DECISION PARADIGM ELEMENT Control  State  Variables  Variables  Exogenous V a r i a b l e s  FACULTY FLOW MODELS  ORGANIZATIONAL RE:  Decision Paradigm] PROCESS DECISIONS FACULTY  COALITIONAL D E C I S I O N S RE: FACULTY  V e r y Few: Net D i s t r i b u t i o n S i z e Standard Personnel Transi tions  Few: Net D i s t r i b u t i o n S i z e Standard Rank/Term A l t e r n a t i v e s Authority  Few: Role o f I n d i v i d u a l  Few: D e p e n d e n t on S t a n d a r d C o n t r a c t s ( e . g . Rank, Tenure, Duration, • etc.) All Internal  Few: D e p e n d e n t on S t a n d a r d Contracts ' ( e . g . Rank, Term, T e n u r e ) All Internal (e.g. Workload)  Many: D e p e n d e n t on I s s u e Agenda B u i l d i n g Many E x t e r n a l P a r t i c i p a n t s  Many O m i t t e d Stable  Many O m i t t e d Stabl e Depend on A u t h o r i t y  Fewer O m i t t e d Unstabl e  Power  TABLE X I I SUMMARY P R O F I L E S OF A N A L Y T I C A L MODELS OF FACULTY FLOW AND D E S C R I P T I V E MODELS OF U N I V E R S I T Y DECISION PROCESSES (Continued) GENERAL D E C I S I O N PARADIGM ELEMENT Observing  Systems  FACULTY FLOW MODELS Passive/Si ngular Routi nized Based i n I n s t i t u t i o n a l Records H i s t o r i c a l Data S i l e n t on C e n t r a l i z a tion  COALITIONAL D E C I S I O N S RE: FACULTY  ORGANIZATIONAL PROCESS DECISIONS RE: FACULTY  Competing/Mul t i p i e Issue S p e c i f i c Some E x t e r n a l Unorthodox C e n t r a l i z e d f o r Each A c t o r  Passive/Singular Routi nized B a s e d on I n s t i t u t i o n a l R e c o r d s H i s t o r i c a l Data I n c l u d e s Peer Reviews D e c e n t r a l i z e d ; Based i n O r g a n i zational Structure *  None  Subunit Goals Emphasized  M a i n t a i n Group Membership and/or Winning Emphasized Future Support  Causal L i n k a g e s  Simple Mathematical (Pre-determined)  Simple Customary (Routine)  Complex Ambiguous Discovered Iteratively (Ignored a p r i o r i )  Constrai nts  Range o f S t a n d a r d Practice ( e . g . P o s i t i v e Promotion Rates) Conservation  Range o f S t a n d a r d P r a c t i c e P o l i c i n g o f Due P r o c e s s Total Resources Quotas  Range o f A c c e p t a b l e P r a c t i c e P r o c e s s Must be L e g i t i m a t e i n P a r t i c i p a n t s ' View Competition  Value  Systems  TABLE X I I SUMMARY P R O F I L E S OF A N A L Y T I C A L MODELS OF FACULTY FLOW AND D E S C R I P T I V E MODELS OF U N I V E R S I T Y DECISION PROCESSES (Continued) GENERAL DECISION PARADIGM ELEMENT Time Horizon  Uncertai nty  FACULTY FLOW MODELS Arbitrary  D i m e n s i o n s Known Deterministic  ORGANIZATIONAL RE:  PROCESS DECISIONS FACULTY  COALITIONAL D E C I S I O N S RE: FACULTY  Short D i s t a n t Future, Near Extension  Short Issue R e c y c l i n g  D i m e n s i o n s Known N a r r o w Range o f O u t c o m e s , T h e r e f o r e Narrow D i s t r i b u t i o n  Some D i m e n s i o n s Many S u r p r i s e s  Expected  Known  oo  134 s t a t e , b u t t h e y do m a i n t a i n may  t h e i r c o n s t i t u e n t s t a t e v a r i a b l e s , hence  be s a i d t o a s s u m e t h a t t h e s t a t e v a r i a b l e s s h o u l d be m a i n t a i n e d  are, therefore, valuable.  Organizational  process  d e c i s i o n making  c l e a r l y v a l u e s t h e s t a t u s quo and e m p h a s i z e s t h e p r e s e n t structure of subunit  and  organizational  goals.  F a c u l t y f l o w m o d e l s and t h e o r g a n i z a t i o n a l p r o c e s s  model o f  d e c i s i o n are c o n g r u e n t i n t h a t t h e y both assume s i m p l e , s t a b l e  causal  r e l a t i o n s h i p s among t h e v a r i a b l e s t o w h i c h t h e y d i r e c t a t t e n t i o n .  It  may  into  a l s o be s t a t e d t h a t t h e s m a l l number o f v a r i a b l e s i n c o r p o r a t e d  those simple  causal r e l a t i o n s h i p s are a c l a s s i c example o f the  nature of organizational  "bounded"  decision.  C o n s t r a i n t s on f a c u l t y f l o w m o d e l s a r e s i m i l a r t o , b u t e x a c t l y congruent with those i n o r g a n i z a t i o n a l process  not  decision.  The  c o n s t r a i n t s o f f a c u l t y flow models merely r e q u i r e that t r a n s i t i o n  rates  among t h e s t a t e s be n o n - n e g a t i v e , and t h a t t h e t o t a l number o f t r a n s i t i o n s , a d d i t i o n s and d e l e t i o n s b a l a n c e  t o some t o t a l  establishment  census, i . e . that a p r i n c i p l e of mathematical conservation range o f standard that standard  practice.  The o r g a n i z a t i o n a l p r o c e s s  p r a c t i c e be m a i n t a i n e d ,  a d h e r e n c e to s t a n d a r d s  o f due p r o c e s s .  p a r a l l e l i n g the c o n s e r v a t i o n  O v e r a l l , organizational process  model  the  requires  and d e v o t e s a t t e n t i o n t o p o l i c i n g A pair of constraints  l i m i t concern  t o t a l , f i x e d pool o f resources  reflect  standard  r e l i a n c e on a  and t h e p o s s i b i l i t y o f i m p o s i n g q u o t a s . c o n s t r a i n t s w o u l d seem t o be s i m i l a r t o  t h o s e i n f a c u l t y f l o w m o d e l s s i n c e t h e t r a n s i t i o n s and s t a t e s d i c t a t e d by e x i s t i n g s t r u c t u r e and  are  practices.  The t i m e h o r i z o n u s e d i n f a c u l t y f l o w m o d e l s i s a t o n c e s i m i l a r t o and d i f f e r e n t f r o m t h a t i n o r g a n i z a t i o n a l p r o c e s s  decision.  The  135 method o f c a l c u l a t i n g f u t u r e f a c u l t y rank d i s t r i b u t i o n s i n a f a c u l t y f l o w model u s e s y e a r - t o - y e a r  t r a n s i t i o n r a t e s among s t a t e s , o r M a r k o v  p r o b a b i l i t i e s t o l i n k one a n n u a l  f a c u l t y rank d i s t r i b u t i o n to the  next.  P r o j e c t i o n s a r e t h e n made by r e p e a t i n g t h e p r o c e s s u s i n g t h e r e s u l t s o f one s e t o f f l o w s as i n p u t t o t h e n e x t s e t f o r as many t i m e s as t h e model i s r e q u i r e d to step years i n t o the f u t u r e . extend  Hence, f a c u l t y f l o w models  t h e p r e s e n t i n t o t h e f u t u r e i n an a r b i t r a r y number o f d e t e r -  m i n i s t i c steps.  The o r g a n i z a t i o n a l p r o c e s s m o d e l o f d e c i s i o n has a  s h o r t time h o r i z o n because the middle  to d i s t a n t f u t u r e i s  discounted.  However, the s h o r t term v i e w o f the f u t u r e i s o n l y a s i m p l e  extension  o f t h e p r e s e n t , and i t i s n o t a c o n c e p t u a l l y d i s t i n c t p r o c e s s  to r e l a x  t h e s h o r t h o r i z o n c o n s t r a i n t and l e t t h e s h o r t t e r m m e t h o d e x t e n d view f a r t h e r .  Such i s not t y p i c a l l y the case i n o r g a n i z a t i o n a l  the process  d e c i s i o n , h o w e v e r , so w h i l e i t i s c o n s i s t e n t w i t h f a c u l t y f l o w m o d e l s i n the s h o r t term, i t d i f f e r s i n not c o n t i n u i n g f a r t h e r . The r e a s o n t h a t o r g a n i z a t i o n a l p r o c e s s d o e s n o t c o n t i n u e i n d e f i n i t e number o f s i m p l e i n c r e m e n t a l the f u t u r e i s l a r g e l y avoided.  an  s t e p s i n t o the f u t u r e i s t h a t  Hence, r a t h e r than l e t the p r e s e n t  be  s y s t e m a t i c a l l y p r o j e c t e d i n t o the f u t u r e , the o r g a n i z a t i o n a l process ; model a v o i d s d e a l i n g w i t h t h e f u t u r e e v e n t h o u g h i t s s i m p l e ,  deter-  m i n i s t i c c a u s a l l i n k a g e s make a f u t u r e p r o j e c t i o n r e l a t i v e l y  simple,  with a narrow range of outcomes. F a c u l t y F l o w M o d e l s Compared t o Coalitional Decision In c o n t r a s t t o t h e o r g a n i z a t i o n a l p r o c e s s m o d e l o f d e c i s i o n , t h e c o a l i t i o n a l model i s almost c o m p l e t e l y m o d e l s as r e p r e s e n t e d  i n the general  incongruent  with f a c u l t y flow  d e c i s i o n paradigm p r o f i l e s .  136 C o a l i t i o n a l model d e c i s i o n m a k i n g i n c o r p o r a t e s  few c o n t r o l  variables,  as do f a c u l t y f l o w m o d e l s ; h o w e v e r , t h e v a r i a b l e s t h e m s e l v e s d i f f e r completely.  Where t h e c o a l i t i o n a l d e c i s i o n m o d e l h i g h l i g h t s  the  d e c i s i o n s and p o w e r o f t h e i n d i v i d u a l t o j o i n o r p a r t i c i p a t e i n a c o a l i t i o n , t h e f a c u l t y f l o w m o d e l u s e s t h e r a t e s o f t r a n s i t i o n and number o f a d d e d o r l o s t members o f f a c u l t y . S t a t e v a r i a b l e s i n t h e c o a l i t i o n a l d e c i s i o n m o d e l may and d e p e n d on t h e i s s u e u n d e r d e b a t e o r r e v i e w .  be n u m e r o u s  Rank, t e n u r e ,  duration  o f a p p o i n t m e n t and so on a r e i n t e g r a l p a r t s o f f a c u l t y f l o w m o d e l s y e t may o r may  n o t be p a r t o f an i s s u e as i t a r i s e s o r e v o l v e s  t i o n a l d e c i s i o n forum.  in a coali-  The i n d i v i d u a l s p a r t i c i p a t i n g i n t h e  decision,  t h e i r s t a k e s i n t h e i s s u e , and t h e i r f o r m e r s t a n d s on i t o r r e l a t e d m a t t e r s a r e t h e k i n d o f v a r i a b l e s on w h i c h t h e c o a l i t i o n a l d e c i s i o n will  depend. S i n c e t h e sum o f s t a t e and c o n t r o l v a r i a b l e s i s r e l a t e d t o  the  s e t o f exogenous v a r i a b l e s , the d i f f e r e n c e s between f a c u l t y f l o w models and c o a l i t i o n a l d e c i s i o n m o d e l s w i t h r e s p e c t t o t h e v a r i a b l e s  not  i n c l u d e d are great.  variables  For t h e m o s t p a r t , t h e s t a t e and c o n t r o l  i n f a c u l t y flow models are exogenous to c o a l i t i o n a l d e c i s i o n , viae versa.  However, the i s s u e - s p e c i f i c n a t u r e o f the c o a l i t i o n a l  d e c i s i o n p r o c e s s may The o b s e r v i n g t h e r e may  and  include elements of f a c u l t y flow models. s y s t e m s i n f a c u l t y f l o w m o d e l s a r e one a r e a i n w h i c h  be some c o n g r u e n c e w i t h c o a l i t i o n a l d e c i s i o n .  While the  c o a l i t i o n model i n c l u d e s a w i d e r a n g e o f p o t e n t i a l a c t o r s , i t i s l i k e l y t h a t a t l e a s t some o f t h e a c t o r s c o n c e r n e d w i t h f a c u l t y r a n k d i s t r i b u t i o n w i l l be o r g a n i z a t i o n a l members.  P a r t o f the o b s e r v i n g  s y s t e m o f an  o r g a n i z a t i o n a l member w i l l i n c l u d e a t t e n t i o n t o o r g a n i z a t i o n a l  variables,  137 e v e n t h o u g h t h o s e p a r t i c u l a r v a r i a b l e s may n o t be i n v o l v e d i n a p a r t i cular issue.  The i m p o r t a n c e  of information in maintaining or  a b a r g a i n i n g p o s i t i o n makes i t i m p o r t a n t  to the a c t o r , or p o t e n t i a l ,  a c t o r , t h a t h i s o r her i n f o r m a t i o n not exclude categories. c a t e g o r i e s may  improving  p o t e n t i a l l y important  In t h e t e r m s o f t h e g e n e r a l d e c i s i o n p a r a d i g m ,  those  i n c l u d e s t a t e o r c o n t r o l v a r i a b l e s , but need n o t  l i m i t e d t o them.  be  I t i s p o s s i b l e , t h e r e f o r e , t h a t the i n s t i t u t i o n a l  r e c o r d s y s t e m u s e d i n f a c u l t y f l o w m o d e l s may  be one o f a l a r g e r s e t o f  o b s e r v i n g systems used i n c o a l i t i o n a l d e c i s i o n . Where f a c u l t y f l o w m o d e l s r e l y on c l e a r , s i m p l e c a u s a l  linkages  to o p e r a t e , c o a l i t i o n a l d e c i s i o n making i g n o r e s the complex causal l i n k a g e s among t h e v a r i a b l e s r e l a t i n g t o t h e s u b s t a n c e  of the issue.  On  t h e o t h e r h a n d , t h e r e a r e v e r y s t r o n g p r o c e s s l i n k a g e s a s s u m e d t o be operating in a coalitional setting.  Those l i n k a g e s a r e , however, o f a  d i f f e r e n t f o r m t h a n t h o s e i n f a c u l t y f l o w m o d e l s , t h e r e f o r e , t h e model o f c o a l i t i o n a l d e c i s i o n may  be s a i d t o be i n c o n g r u e n t  models i n the matter o f causal  with f a c u l t y flow  linkages.  The c o n s t r a i n t s o p e r a t i n g on a s y s t e m r e l a t e t o t h e that are i n operation. substance  linkages  F a c u l t y f l o w m o d e l s u s e c o n s t r a i n t s on  o f the f a c u l t y rank d i s t r i b u t i o n problem.  the  In c o n t r a s t , c o a l i -  t i o n a l d e c i s i o n m a k i n g i s c o n s t r a i n e d o n l y i n s o f a r as t h e p r o c e s s  meets  norms o f f a i r n e s s o r l e g i t i m a c y as d e f i n e d by t h e p a r t i c i p a n t s .  The  s o l u t i o n to the problem o f d e t e r m i n i n g t i o n may  a future f a c u l t y rank d i s t r i b u -  b e a r no r e s e m b l a n c e t o c u r r e n t p r a c t i c e , i . e . t o t h e  substance  current  o f f a c u l t y rank d i s t r i b u t i o n . Indeed, the c o a l i t i o n a l  s o l u t i o n may  be t o d i s c o n t i n u e a u n i v e r s i t y and i t s f a c u l t y .  The t i m e h o r i z o n a s s o c i a t e d w i t h c o a l i t i o n a l d e c i s i o n m a k i n g i s  138 short.  The l a c k o f a t t e n t i o n t o c a u s a l l i n k a g e s among t h e  e l e m e n t s o f an i s s u e makes i t i m p o r t a n t  t h a t an o p p o r t u n i t y  review o f the outcomes o f a c o a l i t i o n a l d e c i s i o n . therefore discounted  substantive exist for  The f u t u r e i s  and t h e a s s u m p t i o n o f r e c y c l i n g p r o b l e m s  as an a l t e r n a t i v e t o a priori f a c u l t y f l o w m o d e l may  analysis.  Again  in contrast,  operates  the  use a l o n g t i m e h o r i z o n , b a s e d on t h e  assumption  t h a t the c a u s a l l i n k a g e s i n the model are a d e q u a t e f o r p r o j e c t i n g future.  In t h i s r e s p e c t , the f a c u l t y f l o w model p r o f i l e i s  the  incongruent  with that f o r c o a l i t i o n a l d e c i s i o n . Uncertainty  i s common w i t h r e s p e c t t o d i m e n s i o n s o f o u t c o m e s , b u t  d i a m e t r i c a l l y opposed with r e s p e c t to the d i s t r i b u t i o n o f outcomes b e t w e e n t h e m o d e l s o f f a c u l t y f l o w and c o a l i t i o n a l d e c i s i o n . l i t t l e a t t e n t i o n to matters of uncertainty. i g n o r e s i t b e c a u s e t o do o t h e r w i s e relating specified variables.  Both  pay  However, f a c u l t y flow  would complicate  the mathematics  C o a l i t i o n a l decision ignores  the  u n c e r t a i n t y i n t h e d e f i n i t i o n o f t h e i s s u e a n d t h e l i n k a g e s among variables.  Moreover, the i m p r e c i s i o n that i s a s s o c i a t e d with such l a r g e  d e g r e e s o f u n c e r t a i n t y a i d s t h e a p p e a r a n c e o f a g r e e m e n t by d i f f e r e n t views and e x p e c t a t i o n s  letting  remain s u p e r f i c i a l l y consistent.  Reducing u n c e r t a i n t y would s i m p l i f y the i s s u e , but p o s s i b l y p o l a r i z e the  process.  R e l a t i n g F a c u l t y Flow Models to F a c u l t y Rank D i s t r i b u t i o n D e c i s i o n s Summarizing the preceding  two s e c t i o n s , i t may  m o d e l s o f f a c u l t y f l o w a r e c l o s e l y c o n g r u e n t w i t h an  be c o n c l u d e d  that  organizational  p r o c e s s model o f o r g a n i z a t i o n a l d e c i s i o n and t h a t f a c u l t y f l o w models are v i r t u a l l y incongruent  w i t h a c o a l i t i o n a l model o f o r g a n i z a t i o n a l  139  d e c i s i o n and t h a t f a c u l t y flow models a r e v i r t u a l l y i n c o n g r u e n t c o a l i t i o n a l model o f o r g a n i z a t i o n a l d e c i s i o n . the study  (see Chapter Five), support  with a  In an e a r l i e r s e c t i o n o f  f o r t h e two m o d e l s o f d e c i s i o n was  sought with s p e c i a l reference to the substance o f f a c u l t y rank d i s t r i bution decisions. process  This section r e l a t e s the support  f o r the models o f  t o t h e congruence o f those models t o the models o f f a c u l t y flow. The o r g a n i z a t i o n a l  support  p r o c e s s model o f d e c i s i o n was f o u n d t o h a v e  i n f a c u l t y r a n k d i s t r i b u t i o n d e c i s i o n s when t h e d e c i s i o n s  cern m a t t e r s o f promotion and tenure and when t h e d e c i s i o n s c o n c e r n  i n the absence o f quota c o n s t r a i n t s ,  the adding o f f a c u l t y during times o f  r e l a t i v e l y abundant resources. indicates that the organizational f a c u l t y flow models.  con-  T h e c o m p a r i s o n o f model p r o f i l e s p r o c e s s model i s c o n g r u e n t  with  H e n c e , i t may be s a i d t h a t t h e f a m i l y o f f a c u l t y  flow models appears congruent with the process  o f making f a c u l t y rank  d i s t r i b u t i o n d e c i s i o n s when t h e r e a r e no q u o t a s o n s e n i o r r a n k o r t e n u r e , a n d when t h e r e a r e r e l a t i v e l y a b u n d a n t  resources.  The c o a l i t i o n a l m o d e l o f d e c i s i o n was f o u n d t o h a v e s u p p o r t i n f a c u l t y r a n k d i s t r i b u t i o n d e c i s i o n s when c o n d i t i o n s o f r e l a t i v e l y s c a r c e resources  prevail.  T h o s e d e c i s i o n s i n v o l v e t h e i m p o s i t i o n o f q u o t a s on  s e n i o r ranks and tenured  populations,  and the r e d u c t i o n o f f a c u l t y  numbers i n i n v e r s e r e l a t i o n t o t h e power o f t h e f a c u l t y s u b u n i t .  The  c o m p a r i s o n o f m o d e l p r o f i l e s i n d i c a t e s t h a t t h e c o a l i t i o n a l model o f d e c i s i o n i s not congruent with f a c u l t y flow models.  H e n c e , i t may be  s a i d t h a t t h e f a m i l y o f f a c u l t y f l o w m o d e l s a p p e a r s n o t t o be c o n g r u e n t w i t h t h e p r o c e s s o f m a k i n g f a c u l t y r a n k d i s t r i b u t i o n d e c i s i o n s when there are r e l a t i v e l y scarce  resources.  A t t h i s p o i n t , i t may be u s e f u l t o r e c a l l t h a t t h e o r g a n i z a t i o n a l  140 p r o c e s s model i s a " b o u n d e d " v e r s i o n o f w h a t h a s b e e n c a l l e d  classical  r a t i o n a l i t y a n d t h a t i t has b e e n a r g u e d t h a t c l a s s i c a l r a t i o n a l i t y i s an a p p r o p r i a t e t e r m f o r t h e model o f d e c i s i o n m a k i n g b r o a d l y p r o p o s e d t o be i d e a l f o r u n i v e r s i t y d e c i s i o n m a k i n g .  Finding that decisions  concerning f a c u l t y rank d i s t r i b u t i o n s are congruent with a v e r s i o n o f t h e n o r m a t i v e model u n d e r c e r t a i n c o n d i t i o n s may be i n t e r p r e t e d t o be an a p p r o p r i a t e , i f l e s s t h a n i d e a l , s t a t e o f a f f a i r s . On t h e o t h e r h a n d , on t h e b a s i s o f a l a c k o f c o n g r u e n c e b e t w e e n f a c u l t y f l o w m o d e l s a n d t h e c o a l i t i o n a l model o f d e c i s i o n i t may be observed that under c o n d i t i o n s o f r e l a t i v e l y scarce resources, the s u p p o r t e d model o f how f a c u l t y r a n k d i s t r i b u t i o n d e c i s i o n s a r e made i s n o t c o n g r u e n t w i t h e v e n a r e l a x e d v e r s i o n o f t h e n o r m a t i v e model o f university decision. B a s e d on t h e a b o v e o b s e r v a t i o n s , t h e r e w o u l d a p p e a r t o be some s u p p o r t f o r S c h m i d t l e i n s (1975) n o t i o n o f a "gap" between i d e o l o g y and 1  practice.  From t h e v i e w p o i n t o f u n i v e r s i t y m a n a g e m e n t , t h a t gap may be  r e d u c e d by c h a n g i n g e i t h e r o r b o t h o f t h e i d e o l o g y a n d p r a c t i c e .  To  c h a n g e t h e i d e o l o g y w o u l d be t o make a f u n d a m e n t a l m o d i f i c a t i o n t o t h e p r e m i s e s upon, w h i c h u n i v e r s i t i e s a r e b a s e d , i . e . t h e " e n c o u r a g e m e n t a n d d e v e l o p m e n t o f i n t e l l e c t u a l e x c e l l e n c e " ( P o r t e r , e_t. a l _ . , 1 977:1 ). On t h e o t h e r h a n d , t o c h a n g e p r a c t i c e w o u l d be t o o v e r c o m e l i m i t a t i o n s a n d problems w h i c h a r e l e g i o n and w h i c h have been t h e s u b j e c t o f e x t e n d e d d i s c u s s i o n and r e s e a r c h . With p a r t i c u l a r reference to the design o f f a c u l t y flow models, i t may be o b s e r v e d t h a t c u r r e n t m o d e l s a r e c o n g r u e n t w i t h a p r o c e s s model o f d e c i s i o n m a k i n g w h i c h i s r o u g h l y c o n g r u e n t w i t h t h e n o r m a t i v e view o f u n i v e r s i t y d e c i s i o n making.  However, t h e p r e v a l e n c e o f t h a t  141 s t y l e o f d e c i s i o n making under c o n d i t i o n s o f s c a r c e resources i s n o t apparent.  T h e r e f o r e , t h e d e s i g n o f f a c u l t y f l o w m o d e l s may be e n h a n c e d  by m a k i n g t h e m more c o n g r u e n t w i t h o r g a n i z a t i o n a l p r o c e s s d e c i s i o n m a k i n g , p r o v i d e d t h a t d e c i s i o n m a k e r s a d h e r e more c l o s e l y t o t h e e s p o u s e d norms f o r t h e i r a c t i v i t y .  C o n v e r s e l y , f a c u l t y f l o w m o d e l s may be made  more c o n g r u e n t w i t h t h e c u r r e n t p r a c t i c e s o f d e c i s i o n m a k i n g c o n d i t i o n s o f s c a r c e r e s o u r c e s by a d o p t i n g e l e m e n t s  under  of coalitional  d e c i s i o n m a k i n g a s p a r t o f a c l a s s o f m o d e l s w h i c h w o u l d be d i s t i n c t from e x i s t i n g v e r s i o n s .  T h e p r o b l e m o f d e s i g n i n g more c o n g r u e n t  models  o f f a c u l t y f l o w w i l l be e x a m i n e d f u r t h e r i n t h e s e c t i o n d e a l i n g w i t h implications f o r further research. REVIEWING THE CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK The G e n e r a l  Decision  Paradigm  The g e n e r a l d e c i s i o n p a r a d i g m  developed  by W e a t h e r s b y (1 9 7 5 ) has  b e e n a p p l i e d t o s e v e r a l b o d i e s o f l i t e r a t u r e i n t h e p r e s e n t s t u d y i n an attempt to assess t h e congruence  o f a c l a s s o f a n a l y t i c a l models de-  s i g n e d t o i n f o r m d e c i s i o n w i t h two c o m p e t i n g o r g a n i z a t i o n a l d e c i s i o n making. because  i t promised  models o f the process o f  The W e a t h e r s b y f r a m e w o r k was  to p r o v i d e a framework f o r comparison  which, i n  i t s e l f , d i d n o t i n c o r p o r a t e a b i a s i n g e f f e c t on t h e r e s e a r c h . c r i t e r i o n o f conceptual congruence  was s e l e c t e d b e c a u s e  The  the full  d e t e r m i n a t i o n o f c a u s e a n d e f f e c t among a l l t h e v a r i a b l e s a n d o f t h e general d e c i s i o n paradigm  adopted  elements  as t h e y r e l a t e t o t h e i n t e r f a c e o f  a n a l y s i s and d e c i s i o n c o u l d n o t proceed w i t h o u t a p r i o r t e s t o f t h e a p p l i c a b i l i t y o f t h e framework as a p r o f i l i n g d e v i c e . The W e a t h e r s b y ( 1 9 7 5 ) p a r a d i g m  provided a nine part c h e c k l i s t  142 for examining models o f f a c u l t y flow and models o f u n i v e r s i t y d e c i s i o n . As a c h e c k l i s t f o r d e v e l o p i n g p r o f i l e s o f m o d e l s i n t e r m s o f a common set o f elements,  t h e W e a t h e r s b y p a r a d i g m may be s a i d t o be s a t i s f a c t o r y .  P r o f i l e s o f t h e a n a l y t i c a l models and d e c i s i o n p r o c e s s models were developed i n terms o f t h e n i n e elements o f t h e general d e c i s i o n paradigm and t h o s e n i n e e l e m e n t s  c o n s t i t u t e d a s u f f i c i e n t s e t t o summarize  substantial and d i v e r s e bodies o f l i t e r a t u r e without missing  important  aspects o f previous research. The p r e s e n t i n t e r e s t i n t e s t i n g f o r c o n g r u e n c e  among s t a t i c  p r o f i l e s o f a n a l y t i c a l and d e c i s i o n process models does n o t address the f u l l dynamics o f  d e c i s i o n making  o r the process o f developing  and u s i n g a n a l y t i c a l m o d e l s .  I t has n o t been p o s s i b l e , t h e r e f o r e , t o  t e s t t h e Weathersby paradigm  f o r i t s a b i l i t y t o i n c o r p o r a t e those dyna-  mics.  For t h e purposes o f t h e study, however, t h e matter o f a s s e s s i n g  congruence  was a d e q u a t e l y a c h i e v e d u s i n g t h e W e a t h e r s b y p a r a d i g m  since  i t d i d p r o v i d e a m e t h o d f o r d i s c r i m i n a t i n g among t h e t y p e s o f m o d e l s under review.  Not o n l y d i d t h e paradigm  provide f o r discrimination, but  the comparison  o f f a c u l t y flow models t o d e c i s i o n process models  s u c c e s s f u l l y i l l u s t r a t e d cases o f both c l o s e congruence i n c o n g r u e n c e on an e l e m e n t  by e l e m e n t  and v i r t u a l  basis.  I t m u s t be r e m e m b e r e d , h o w e v e r , t h a t t h e o r g a n i z a t i o n a l p r o c e s s d e c i s i o n model a n d t h e c o a l i t i o n a l d e c i s i o n model e a c h e m p h a s i z e d i f f e r ent v a r i a b l e s w i t h i n the general d e c i s i o n paradigm.  .In t h a t s e n s e ,  t h e r e f o r e , t h e d i s t i n c t i o n b e t w e e n t h e two i s a r t i f i c i a l .  A full  mic theory o f d e c i s i o n would i n c o r p o r a t e both, u s i n g t h e nine of t h e general d e c i s i o n paradigm  as a comprehensive  framework.  dyna-  elements Taken,  t o g e t h e r , t h e d i s t i n c t i o n s between o r g a n i z a t i o n a l p r o c e s s d e c i s i o n and  143 c o a l i t i o n a l d e c i s i o n , and t h e e x c l u s i o n o f the dynamics o f both a n a l y s i s are areas i n need o f f u r t h e r  development.  T h e g e n e r a l d e c i s i o n p a r a d i g m was u s e d i n t h e p r e s e n t s t u d y t o t e s t i t s a p p l i c a b i l i t y f o r p r o v i d i n g s t a t i c summaries.  The f u r t h e r  d e v e l o p m e n t o f d e s c r i p t i v e and p r e d i c t i v e t h e o r y r e q u i r e s t h a t the p r o c e s s m o d e l s o f d e c i s i o n be i n t e g r a t e d i n t o a l a r g e r t h e o r y u s i n g t h e f u l l range o f elements  in the general d e c i s i o n paradigm,  w h i c h may  then  be e x a m i n e d f o r t h e i r i m p l i c a t i o n s f o r t h e d e s i g n o f a n a l y s i s i n s u p p o r t o f d e c i s i o n s i n t h a t f u l l and comprehensive  context.  Allison  (1971)  i d e n t i f i e d p o s s i b l e avenues f o r i n t e g r a t i n g o r g a n i z a t i o n a l process  and  p o l i t i c a l or c o a l i t i o n a l models o f d e c i s i o n , however, h i s t e n t a t i v e s c h e m e f o r a c c o m p l i s h i n g t h a t t a s k has y e t t o be a c h i e v e d ( M u r p h y , T h e r e f o r e , a f u l l and comprehensive r e s e a r c h towards which The Two-World  1977).  theory of decision is a product of  i t i s necessary s t i l l to s t r i v e .  Concept  A second c o n s t r u c t which u n d e r l i e s the p r e s e n t a p p l i c a t i o n o f the general d e c i s i o n paradigm The t w o - w o r l d  i n t h i s study i s the "two-world  concept."  concept i d e n t i f i e s a d i s t i n c t i o n between the world o f  a n a l y s i s and t h e w o r l d o f a c t i o n .  Since the general d e c i s i o n  paradigm  has s u c c e s s f u l l y b e e n a p p l i e d t o r e s e a r c h b a s e d i n e a c h o f t h o s e  two  w o r l d s , i t may be c o n c l u d e d t h a t t h e c o n c e p t was o f v a l u e i n t h e p r e s e n t study.  Furthermore,  the next steps i n developing a theory r e q u i r e the  i n t e g r a t i o n o f elements  i n t h e g e n e r a l d e c i s i o n paradigm and the  inclu-  s i o n o f d y n a m i c l i n k a g e s among them. While the two-world  c o n c e p t has b e e n e s s e n t i a l t o t h e p r e s e n t  e x e r c i s e , i t i s not immediately  a p p a r e n t t h a t i t w o u l d be r e q u i r e d i n  144 the f u r t h e r development. world concept  That i s because the d e f i n i t i o n o f the  i n c l u d e s a t t e n t i o n t o t h e norms o f r e s e a r c h and  the  norms o f d e c i s i o n , and t o t h e i r r e s p e c t i v e c o n s t r a i n t s i n t i m e resources  as c r i t i c a l v a r i a b l e s .  However, the general  digm i n c l u d e s i n i t the v a l u e s a t t a c h e d m o d e l s , t h e r e f o r e , may culated theory.  and  decision  to the process  subsume t h e two w o r l d c o n c e p t  two  para-  and a n a l y t i c a l in a f u l l y  However, f o r a s t a t i c comparison such as the  artipresent  s t u d y , t h e two w o r l d c o n c e p t was v a l u a b l e f o r i t s J a n u s - l i k e f u n c t i o n  as  an o r g a n i z i n g c o n s t r u c t e m p h a s i z i n g t h e r o l e o f d e c i s i o n a s t h e i n t e r f a c e between the w o r l d s o f r e s e a r c h and  action.  SUMMARY This chapter  has p r o v i d e d a c o m p a r i s o n b e t w e e n two p a i r s o f  summary p r o f i l e s d e v e l o p e d u s i n g t h e g e n e r a l  d e c i s i o n paradigm.  c o m p a r i s o n o f f a c u l t y f l o w m o d e l s and o r g a n i z a t i o n a l p r o c e s s m a k i n g s h o w e d them t o be c l o s e l y c o n g r u e n t . practices, routinized organizational  Adherence to  The  decision  standard  records, simple assumptions o f  c a u s a l l i n k a g e i n an e n v i r o n m e n t o f l o w u n c e r t a i n t y w i t h a s i m p l e o f the future c h a r a c t e r i z e d both o r g a n i z a t i o n a l  process  view  d e c i s i o n making  and t h e f l o w m o d e l s . In c o n t r a s t , t h e c o m p a r i s o n o f f a c u l t y f l o w m o d e l s and c o a l i t i o n a l d e c i s i o n m a k i n g showed them t o be l a r g e l y i n c o n g r u e n t . element o f the general  On a l m o s t  every  d e c i s i o n p a r a d i g m , t h e two d i f f e r s u b s t a n t i a l l y ,  and t h e r e l a t i v e i n s t a b i l i t y o f t h e mix o f v a r i a b l e s and  relationships  c h a r a c t e r i z i n g c o a l i t i o n a l d e c i s i o n making compounds t h e i r a p p a r e n t incongruence. R e l a t i n g f a c u l t y rank d i s t r i b u t i o n d e c i s i o n s to c o n d i t i o n s  of  145 r e s o u r c e s u p p l y , i t was n o t e d t h a t t h e f a m i l y o f f a c u l t y f l o w m o d e l s appears congruent w i t h t h e process o f making f a c u l t y rank  distribution  d e c i s i o n s when t h e r e a r e no q u o t a s a n d when t h e r e a r e r e l a t i v e l y a b u n dant resources.  On t h e o t h e r h a n d , i t was a l s o n o t e d t h a t t h e f a m i l y  o f f a c u l t y f l o w models appear n o t t o be c o n g r u e n t w i t h t h e p r o c e s s o f m a k i n g f a c u l t y r a n k d i s t r i b u t i o n d e c i s i o n s when t h e r e a r e r e l a t i v e l y scarce resources.  On t h e b a s i s o f t h o s e a n d n o t i n g t h e c l o s e r f i t  between o r g a n i z a t i o n a l process d e c i s i o n and t h e normative t h e o r y o f u n i v e r s i t y d e c i s i o n , s u p p o r t f o r S c h m i d t l e i n ' s (1975) "gap" between i d e o l o g y a n d p r a c t i c e i n u n i v e r s i t y d e c i s i o n m a k i n g was n o t e d . The c o n c e p t u a l f r a m e w o r k f o r t h e s t u d y was r e v i e w e d w i t h s p e c i a l emphasis on t h e g e n e r a l d e c i s i o n paradigm.  As a c h e c k l i s t f o r  d e v e l o p i n g p r o f i l e s o f d i v e r s e l i t e r a t u r e i t was f o u n d t o b e s a t i s f a c t o r y . S i m i l a r l y , i t was f o u n d t o d i s c r i m i n a t e b e t w e e n g r o u p s o f s t u d i e s a n d p r o v i d e a means f o r t e s t i n g f o r c o n g r u e n c e .  F i n a l l y , t h e two-world  c o n c e p t was n o t e d a s a n i m p o r t a n t f a c t o r i n o p e r a t i o n a l i z i n g t h e c u r r e n t s t a t i c comparison  o f p r o f i l e s , however i t s necessary use i n a f u l l y  a r t i c u l a t e d t h e o r y i s u n c l e a r s i n c e i t l i k e l y w o u l d be s u b s u m e d w i t h i n t h e set o f elements paradigm.  i n v o l v e d i n a dynamic a p p l i c a t i o n o f t h e general d e c i s i o n  146 Chapter Seven SUMMARY, CONCLUSIONS AND I M P L I C A T I O N S This chapter provides a three-part conclusion to the study. F i r s t , a comprehensive  review o f the preceding chapters provides a  summary o f t h e r e s e a r c h .  Second, t h e p r i n c i p a l conclusions o f t h e  s t u d y a r e drawn t o g e t h e r i n a b r i e f d i s c u s s i o n o f i t s f i n d i n g s . F i n a l l y , i m p l i c a t i o n s o f t h e study a r e drawn f o r both f u r t h e r r e s e a r c h and a d m i n i s t r a t i v e p r a c t i c e . SUMMARY OF T H E STUDY Purpose o f t h e Study The c o n c e p t o f p o l i c y a s a c l a s s o f i m p o r t a n t , f a r r e a c h i n g d e c i s i o n s h a s b e e n d i s c u s s e d b y v a r i o u s a u t h o r s who i d e n t i f y i t s s a l i e n c e and i t s problematic nature.  As m a j o r f e a t u r e s o f  contemporary  o r g a n i z a t i o n s , p o l i c y a n d p o l i c y - r e l a t e d a c t i v i t y have drawn c o n s i d e r a b l e a t t e n t i o n t o both t h e s u b s t a n c e o f p o l i c y and t h e p r o c e s s e s by which i t i s made.  I n q u i r y c o n c e r n i n g t h e f o r m e r may b e c a l l e d p o l i c y a n a l y s i s  as d i s t i n c t f r o m i n q u i r y c o n c e r n i n g t h e l a t t e r , w h i c h may b e c a l l e d p o l i c y r e s e a r c h (Downey, 1 9 7 7 ) . The n o t i o n s o f p o l i c y a n a l y s i s a n d p o l i c y r e s e a r c h a r e b o t h p a r t of a larger conception called policy science.  W h i l e p o l i c y s c i e n c e was  p r o p o s e d some y e a r s a g o a s a n i n t e g r a t i n g c o n c e p t i n t e n d e d t o i m p r o v e government problem s o l v i n g and d e c i s i o n making ( L a s s w e l l , 1970), t h e l i m i t e d success o f t h a t i n t e g r a t i o n i s apparent (e.g. Lindblom and Cohen, 1979).  T h e r e f o r e i t becomes i m p o r t a n t t o attempt t o i d e n t i f y  and examine t e c h n i q u e s by which t h e i n t e g r a t i o n o f p o l i c y a n a l y s i s  147 p o l i c y r e s e a r c h c a n be e n h a n c e d . I t was t h e p u r p o s e o f t h i s s t u d y i d e n t i f y and t e s t a t e c h n i q u e A Strategy for  w h i c h may,  to  ultimately, serve that purpose.  Integration  Central to the concepts  o f p o l i c y a n a l y s i s and p o l i c y  and, t h e r e f o r e , to t h e i r i n t e g r a t i o n , i s the concept ( C o l e m a n , 1972)  i d e n t i f i e s two  "worlds"  which  research  of decision.  connect  a t the p o i n t o f  d e c i s i o n . In t h e t e r m s d e v e l o p e d h e r e , t h o s e w o r l d s a r e t h e r e a l m s o f policy a n a l y s i s , designed  to inform d e c i s i o n through the s c r u t i n y o f  a l t e r n a t i v e s , and p o l i c y r e s e a r c h , d e s i g n e d  t o d e s c r i b e and i m p r o v e t h e  process of decision. L i n k i n g t h o s e two w o r l d s , and d e c i s i o n m a k e r was  a f o c u s on c o m m u n i c a t i o n b e t w e e n a n a l y s t  p r o v i d e d by S a b a t i e r ( 1 9 7 8 ) i n h i s s y n t h e s i s  of  v a r i a b l e s shown t o a f f e c t t h e i n f l u e n c e o f t e c h n i c a l i n f o r m a t i o n  on  p o l i c y d e c i s i o n s . The i m p o r t a n c e o f m e s s a g e s b e t w e e n a n a l y s t and  decision  m a k e r was  identified  by Mason and M i t r o f f ( 1 9 7 3 ) who  s t r e s s the  i m p o r t a n c e o f c o n g r u e n c e b e t w e e n a u s e r o f r e s e a r c h o r i n q u i r y and philosophy  of evidence,  Therefore,  i t may  <> the  i n q u i r y and k n o w l e d g e i n an i n q u i r i n g s y s t e m .  be t h a t c o n s i s t e n c y b e t w e e n an a n a l y s t ' s s y s t e m o f  i n q u i r y and t h a t o f a d e c i s i o n maker i s a n e c e s s a r y i n t e g r a t i n g p o l i c y a n a l y s i s and p o l i c y r e s e a r c h ,  condition  for  i.e. for linking  a n a l y s i s to d e c i s i o n . Noting the importance o f models i n p e r c e i v i n g the world P o l a n y i , 1968; technologies  K u h n , 1 9 7 0 ) , i t may  (e.g.  be p o s i t e d t h a t i f t h e m o d e l s o r  of p o l i c y a n a l y s i s a r e n o t c o n g r u e n t w i t h t h e m o d e l s o r  c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f d e c i s i o n m a k i n g , the l i n k a g e s between them w i l l poor or non-existant. and p o l i c y r e s e a r c h may  be  Hence enhancing the i n t e g r a t i o n o f p o l i c y a n a l y s i s be a p p r o a c h e d t h r o u g h a c h i e v i n g  congruence  148 between t h e i r u n d e r l y i n g models. B e f o r e t h a t t a s k c a n be u n d e r t a k e n , i t is necessary  t o have a t hand a method f o r a n a l y z i n g p o l i c y a n a l y s i s  m o d e l s a n d p o l i c y d e c i s i o n m o d e l s o n some common b a s i s a n d t o d e t e r m i n e whether t h e method can i l l u s t r a t e o r t e s t f o r p o i n t s o f s i m i l a r i t y and d i f f e r e n c e , i . e . t e s t f o r congruence. In t h e absence o f such a method, i t f a l l s t o the present exercise t o i d e n t i f y and t e s t a candidate, b u t leave t o another time the challenge o f a l i g n i n g a n a l y s i s and d e c i s i o n i n a particular situation. As a f o c u s f o r a n a l y z i n g m o d e l s a n d t e s t i n g f o r c o n g r u e n c e , t h e J a n u s - l i k e r o l e o f d e c i s i o n may b e u s e d . T h a t i s , a m o d e l o f d e c i s i o n may s e r v e a s a common f r a m e w o r k o r c h e c k l i s t t o e x a m i n e b o t h a n a l y s e s  meant  to inform d e c i s i o n and d e s c r i p t i o n s o f d e c i s i o n processes.  that a  number o f a p p a r e n t l y  competing conceptions  Noting  o f decision are i n the l i t e r -  ature, i t i s proposed that a comprehensive conception  o f d e c i s i o n may  provide a broad framework f o r c a t e g o r i z i n g and d e s c r i b i n g both t h e technologies o f p o l i c y a n a l y s i s and d e s c r i p t i o n s o f p o l i c y d e c i s i o n making. T h a t f r a m e w o r k w i l l be d i s c u s s e d  i n a l a t e r s e c t i o n . However, t o p r o v i d e  a s p e c i f i c p o i n t o f r e f e r e n c e for examination o f t h e p r o p o s i t i o n , a case problem w i l l help to sharpen the study. S e l e c t i n g a Case S e l e c t i n g a case problem t o t e s t the notion o f conceptual gruence involves three f a c t o r s . F i r s t , t h e case problem should s u f f i c i e n t complexity  conexhibit  and long term importance that i t q u a l i f i e s as a  p o l i c y problem. Second, t h e r e must be a body o f a n a l y s i s c o n c e r n i n g t h e s u b s t a n c e o f t h e case problem. T h i r d , t h e r e must be a body o f r e s e a r c h describing decision processes  concerning  the case  problem.  S c a n n i n g t h e l i t e r a t u r e i n an a t t e m p t t o meet those t h r e e c r i -  149 t e r i a , i t i s u s e f u l t o n o t e t h a t u n i v e r s i t i e s as a t y p e o f i n s t i t u t i o n have been examined c o n s i d e r a b l y ;  i n p a r t i c u l a r , t h e i r p r o b l e m s and  c e s s e s are the s u b j e c t o f a f a i r l y extensive class of organizations  pro-  l i t e r a t u r e . M o r e o v e r , as a  within which p o l i c y processes operate, u n i v e r s i -  t i e s are e s p e c i a l l y i n t e r e s t i n g because of t h e i r c o n c u r r e n t c o m p l e x i t y and e m p h a s i s on s c i e n t i f i c r a t i o n a l i t y . I t may adequate body o f research and  be o b s e r v e d t h a t  an  exists concerning university decision  making  i n d i c a t e s t h a t a u n i v e r s i t y s e t t i n g f o r t h e c a s e p r o b l e m may  particularly  be  interesting.  W i t h i n the u n i v e r s i t y s e t t i n g , a  contemporary problem i s the  m a t t e r o f f a c u l t y r a n k d i s t r i b u t i o n . The f u n d a m e n t a l e x c e l l e n c e  of a  u n i v e r s i t y i s s e e n t o be e m b o d i e d i n i t s f a c u l t y . M o r e o v e r , t h e  number  and  univer-  r a n k d i s t r i b u t i o n o f f a c u l t y members i n C a n a d i a n and o t h e r  s i t i e s h a v e b e e n c i t e d as a p o s s i b l e s t r u c t u r a l f l a w w i t h implications;  therefore,  important  the matter of f a c u l t y rank d i s t r i b u t i o n would  a p p e a r to meet the f i r s t c r i t e r i o n o f b e i n g a p o l i c y problem ( F o r t i e r , 1979). Second, the l i t e r a t u r e o f p o l i c y a n a l y s i s  includes a variety  techniques f o r p r o j e c t i n g the d i s t r i b u t i o n of personnel across or ranked set of categories.  of  a graded  In p a r t i c u l a r , t h a t l i t e r a t u r e has  been  developed i n the matter o f f a c u l t y rank d i s t r i b u t i o n s i n u n i v e r s i t i e s . There are three " f a c u l t y flow" techniques: Percentage Increase Models, E q u i l i b r i u m m o d e l s and M a r k o v C h a i n s . T o g e t h e r , t h e r e i s s u f f i c i e n t a n a l y t i c a l work r e p o r t e d  to enable secondary a n a l y s i s o f the  technologies  involved. Finally, within  the general  making in u n i v e r s i t i e s , there  research  l i t e r a t u r e about  i s s u f f i c i e n t work r e p o r t e d  secondary a n a l y s i s o f the p r o c e s s e s f o r making d e c i s i o n s  decision  to enable affecting  faculty  150 rank  distributions. The t h r e e f a c t o r s n e e d e d f o r an e x p l o r a t o r y s t u d y o f c o n c e p t u a l  congruence  between t e c h n o l o g i e s o f a n a l y s i s and p r o c e s s e s o f d e c i s i o n  a r e , then, p r e s e n t i n the case problem o f f a c u l t y rank d i s t r i b u t i o n .  The  n e x t s e c t i o n s d e s c r i b e t h e t e c h n i q u e b e i n g a s s e s s e d and t h e a n a l y s i s o f the case  problem.  The G e n e r a l D e c i s i o n  Paradigm  The c e n t r a l r o l e o f d e c i s i o n i n t e s t i n g f o r c o n g r u e n c e  between  a n a l y t i c a l t e c h n o l o g i e s o r m o d e l s a n d p r o c e s s m o d e l s o f d e c i s i o n has been i d e n t i f i e d . However, a major problem i n p a s t r e s e a r c h d e c i s i o n p r o c e s s e s has been the t h e o r e t i c a l o r c o n c e p t u a l  concerning framework  used to o r g a n i z e the i n q u i r y . V a r i a t i o n s o f the e x p e r i m e n t e r ( R o s e n t h a l , 1966)  effect  l e a d t o u n i n t e n t i o n a l b i a s by i d e n t i f y i n g a n d u s i n g  o n l y t h o s e d a t a s p e c i f i e d i n t h e c o n c e p t u a l f r a m e w o r k . To o f f s e t  such  b i a s , a framework o f s u f f i c i e n t scope to encompass the f u l l range  of  variables i s necessary. The l i t e r a t u r e o f d e c i s i o n m a k i n g c o n t a i n s a v a r i e t y o f c o n c e p t i o n s , f o r example, c o l l e g i u m , bureaucracy, (Cohen and March, 1974). weathersby a comprehensive  r a t i o n a l i t y and o r g a n i z e d  anarchy  ( 1 9 7 5 ) shows t h e m t o be s u b s u m e d by  framework, the general d e c i s i o n paradigm,  a t e s t h e range o f models and i d e n t i f i e s n i n e elements  which  i n whose  incorporterms  d e c i s i o n m a k i n g may be a n a l y z e d p a r s i m o n i o u s l y w h i l e a v o i d i n g m o d e l b i a s . The g e n e r a l d e c i s i o n paradigm  uses t h r e e c l a s s e s o f v a r i a b l e s ,  f o u r l i n k i n g s t r u c t u r e s , a t i m e h o r i z o n and t h e t r e a t m e n t o f u n c e r t a i n t y t o d e s c r i b e d e c i s i o n . The n o t i o n o f t e s t i n g f o r c o n g r u e n c e comparison provides  involves a  o f d e s c r i p t i o n s , t h e r e f o r e the general d e c i s i o n paradigm a common s e t o f c r i t e r i a f o r s t a t i c s c r u t i n y a n d c o m p a r i s o n  of  151 the technologies processes  used f o r p r o j e c t i n g f a c u l t y rank d i s t r i b u t i o n t o t h e  used f o r making f a c u l t y rank d i s t r i b u t i o n d e c i s i o n s .  The g e n e r a l  d e c i s i o n paradigm d i r e c t s a t t e n t i o n to the r o l e o f  t h e i n d i v i d u a l i n d e c i d i n g a n d t r e a t s g r o u p d e c i s i o n m a k i n g a s an extension  o f the i n d i v i d u a l through h i s o r her decision to j o i n o r p a r t i -  c i p a t e i n a group. The g e n e r a l ables.  d e c i s i o n paradigm uses three b a s i c c l a s s e s o f v a r i -  C o n t r o l v a r i a b l e s a r e those which c a n be m a n i p u l a t e d o r s p e c i f i e d  by t h e d e c i s i o n m a k e r ( e . g . t h e m a t t e r o f j o i n i n g a g r o u p ) .  State  vari-  a b l e s a r e those which can be i n f l u e n c e d b u t n o t c o n t r o l l e d by t h e d e c i s i o n maker (e.g. h i s o r h e r a c c e p t a n c e by a group).  Exogenous v a r i a b l e s  simply  include a l l those that a r e n e i t h e r c o n t r o l n o r s t a t e v a r i a b l e s . L i n k i n g s t r u c t u r e s p r o v i d e r e l a t i o n s h i p s among t h e v a r i a b l e s a n d to the world a t large. concerning  An o b s e r v i n g  s y s t e m i n c l u d e s b a s e s on  information  t h e three c l a s s e s o f v a r i a b l e s and t h e methods o f i n q u i r y  used t o c o l l e c t i t . A value system l i n k s t h e i n d i v i d u a l t o each v a r i a b l e by s t a t i n g t h e r e l a t i v e value o f t h e s t a t u s o f each v a r i a b l e and o f a l t e r n a t i v e f u t u r e c o n d i t i o n s o f e a c h .  Causal  relationships link  c o n t r o l and s t a t e v a r i a b l e s across time through i f - t h e n Constraints  statements.  i n l i n k i n g s t r u c t u r e s l i m i t t h e t o t a l v a r i a n c e among t h e  three kinds o f v a r i a b l e s . The t i m e h o r i z o n i n a d e c i s i o n i s t h e d i s t a n c e i n t o t h e f u t u r e over which v a r i a b l e s a r e examined and l i n k i n g s t r u c t u r e s assumed t o operate.  F i n a l l y , t h e r e may b e b o t h m a t t e r s o f c o m p l e t e  uncertainty,  i . e . t o t a l s u r p r i s e , and matters which a r e uncertain only i n degree, i.e. relative likelihood of The g e n e r a l  occurrence.  d e c i s i o n p a r a d i g m c a n be t h o u g h t o f a s p r o v i d i n g a  152 c h e c k l i s t to summarize a complex s e t o f i n f o r m a t i o n phenomena i n t o a l i m i t e d s e t o f c a t e g o r i e s decision.  The  about d i f f e r e n t  b a s e d on t h e n o t i o n  of  f i r s t task f o r t h i s case study i s to perform t h a t  z a t i o n on t h e t e c h n o l o g i e s on t h e d e s c r i p t i o n s  summari-  f o r p r o j e c t i n g f a c u l t y rank d i s t r i b u t i o n  of decisions  Summarizing P o l i c y Analysis P o l i c y Research  and  a f f e c t i n g those d i s t r i b u t i o n s .  and  The p o l i c y a n a l y s i s t e c h n o l o g i e s  applied to the problem of f a c u l t y  rank d i s t r i b u t i o n s have been l a b e l l e d " f a c u l t y f l o w " models.  Analyzing  f a c u l t y f l o w models i n terms o f the general  indicates  several  things. Control  variables  overall additions various  s t a t e s , e.g.  p r o m o t i o n and t h e g r a n t i n g  r a n k and d u r a t i o n  determined. categories,  i n f l o w m o d e l s a r e few  i n number and  concern  t o o r l o s s e s f r o m a d i s t r i b u t i o n , o r t r a n s i t i o n s among  v a r i a b l e s a r e a l s o few, e.g.  decision paradigm  of tenure.  and d e p e n d on s t a n d a r d c o n t r a c t s  The  for definition,  of appointment, thereby being i n s t i t u t i o n a l l y  With small  numbers o f v a r i a b l e s  i n b o t h c o n t r o l and  t h e number o f e x o g e n o u s v a r i a b l e s  i s very large.  state  Also,  f l o w m o d e l s a r e t y p i c a l l y f i x e d , t h e members o f e a c h c l a s s o f are  state  since  variable  stable. The o b s e r v i n g  systems used in f a c u l t y flow models are based in  i n s t i t u t i o n a l records, and c u r r e n t  information.  r o u t i n e l y m a i n t a i n e d and  including  historical  The p r e s e n c e o f a s i n g l e d a t a b a s e i s common,  although i t i s not c l e a r whether that i s a c e n t r a l i z e d resource.  Flow  m o d e l s t y p i c a l l y do n o t s e e k t o o p t i m i z e a d i s t r i b u t i o n , h e n c e no  value  is attached  t o any p a r t i c u l a r p r o j e c t e d  distribution.  Perhaps  consistent  153 w i t h t h e use o f few c o n t r o l o r s t a t e v a r i a b l e s , f a c u l t y f l o w m o d e l s s i m p l e m a t h e m a t i c a l l i n k a g e s and a r e c o n s t r a i n e d by t h e r a n g e o f p r a c t i c e ( e . g . no d e m o t i o n s ) a n d s i m p l e  rules of  use  standard  conservation.  The f a c u l t y f l o w m o d e l s r e v i e w e d u s e an a r b i t r a r y t i m e h o r i z o n t h e s e n s e t h a t t h e p r o j e c t i o n s c a n be r u n f o r any n u m b e r o f a n n u a l into the future.  in  cycles  However, the view o f the f u t u r e i s very simple,  assuming  t h a t i t s d i m e n s i o n s a r e known, i . e . t h a t t h e r e a r e no s u r p r i s e s , and  that  i t i s f u l l y d e t e r m i n i s t i c as l a i d out i n the model's m a t h e m a t i c s . P o l i c y Research:  F a c u l t y Rank D i s t r i b u t i o n  Research i n t o the processes  Decisions  by w h i c h f a c u l t y r a n k d i s t r i b u t i o n  d e c i s i o n s a r e made i s l e s s b r i e f l y s u m m a r i z e d .  Competing d e s c r i p t i o n s  o f d e c i s i o n a r e i d e n t i f i a b l e i n t h e l i t e r a t u r e and s u p p o r t be f o u n d u n d e r one o r more s e t s o f c i r c u m s t a n c e s . paradigm provides  The g e n e r a l  a method f o r summarizing both bodies  and f o r c o n t r a s t i n g them d i r e c t l y s i n c e e a c h may  f o r each  can  decision  of policy research  be shown t o e m p h a s i z e  d i f f e r e n t elements in the paradigm. Organizational  Process  Decision.  The f i r s t b o d y o f d e s c r i p t i v e  r e s e a r c h u s e s w h a t has b e e n c a l l e d t h e " o r g a n i z a t i o n a l p r o c e s s decision.  model" o f  With regard to f a c u l t y rank d i s t r i b u t i o n d e c i s i o n s , the  zational process  organi-  v i e w as a n a l y z e d w i t h t h e g e n e r a l d e c i s i o n p a r a d i g m  has  several c h a r a c t e r i s t i c features. The c o n t r o l v a r i a b l e s a r e few i n number a n d c o n c e r n  overall  a d d i t i o n s to o r l o s s e s from a d i s t r i b u t i o n , o r t r a n s i t i o n s between states.  The o r g a n i z a t i o n a l p r o c e s s  view a l s o notes t h a t the extent  c o n t r o l l a b i l i t y d e p e n d s on t h e o r g a n i z a t i o n ' s  authority structure  t h a t , i n some c a s e s , t h e a b i l i t y t o d e l e g a t e a u t h o r i t y w i l l be a  of and  154 control variable. standard  S t a t e v a r i a b l e s a r e few i n number a n d depend on  contracts f o r definition.  With t h e s m a l l number o f s t a t e and  c o n t r o l v a r i a b l e s , t h e r e a r e many o m i t t e d  variables which a r e , i n the  main, s t a b l e . The l i n k i n g s t r u c t u r e s i n v o l v e d i n t h e o r g a n i z a t i o n a l view o f d e c i s i o n r e l y h e a v i l y on s t a n d a r d i z e d The o b s e r v i n g maintained units.  process  views o f a simple  world.  systems a r e based i n i n s t i t u t i o n a l data bases which a r e  under r o u t i n i z e d procedures i n various o r g a n i z a t i o n a l sub-  The v a l u e s y s t e m under an o r g a n i z a t i o n a l p r o c e s s  view lays  h e a v y e m p h a s i s on s u b u n i t g o a l s a n d t h e p r e s e r v a t i o n o f t h e i r i n t e g r i t y . Linkages  among c o n t r o l a n d s t a t e v a r i a b l e s a r e s i m p l e a n d b a s e d l a r g e l y  in routine o r custom. range o f standard  C o n s t r a i n t s on t h e p r o c e s s  i n c l u d e the narrow  p r a c t i c e , t h e r e q u i r e m e n t o f due p r o c e s s ,  t i o n t o r o u t i n i z e d procedures i n c l u d i n g peer review, balancing resources  and commitments.  i.e. atten-  and a t t e n t i o n t o  A p a r t i c u l a r c o n s t r a i n t t h a t may  be a p p l i e d t o f a c u l t y r a n k d i s t r i b u t i o n d e c i s i o n s may b e t h e u s e o f q u o t a s on one o r m o r e s t a t e s . The t i m e h o r i z o n i n o r g a n i z a t i o n a l p r o c e s s However, i t i s assumed t h a t present  decision i s short.  procedures and r e l a t i o n s h i p s w i l l  extend i n d e f i n i t e l y into the future, therefore the d i s t a n t future i s t r e a t e d as a l i n e a r e x t e n s i o n o f t h e p r e s e n t .  That view r e f l e c t s an  u n c e r t a i n t y s t r u c t u r e i n w h i c h v e r y few e l e m e n t s a r e n o t p r e - d e t e r m i n e d ; i n d e e d t h e o r g a n i z a t i o n a l p r o c e s s model o f d e c i s i o n i s d e s c r i b e d a s avoiding  uncertainty.  Support f o r the organizational process from budgeting process  studies and observations  in dealing with individuals.  view i s found i n inferences  o f t h e r e q u i r e m e n t s f o r due I t would appear that, under conditions  155 o f r e l a t i v e l y abundant resources, concerning process  d e c i s i o n s t o a d d . f a c u l t y and  p r o m o t i o n and t e n u r e a r e w e l l d e s c r i b e d by t h e  decisions  organizational  view. Coalitional Decision.  concerning  The second body o f d e s c r i p t i v e  research  f a c u l t y r a n k d i s t r i b u t i o n d e c i s i o n s u s e s w h a t has b e e n c a l l e d  the " c o a l i t i o n a l model" of d e c i s i o n .  The c o a l i t i o n a l o r p o l i t i c a l m o d e l  has s e v e r a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s , as r e v e a l e d by t h e g e n e r a l  d e c i s i o n paradigm.  C o n t r o l v a r i a b l e s i n c o a l i t i o n a l d e c i s i o n a r e few i n n u m b e r , n o t a b l e among them b e i n g t h e i n d i v i d u a l c h o i c e t o j o i n one o r a n o t h e r c o a l i t i o n o r power group.  S i m i l a r l y , the a b i l i t y to b r i n g together  and i n f l u e n c e a g e n d a s a r e e x a m p l e s o f i n d i v i d u a l p o w e r w h i c h may exercised in varying degree.  support  be  In c o n t r a s t , a l a r g e r a n g e o f v a r i a b l e s i s  s u b j e c t o n l y t o i n f l u e n c e a n d may  be c a l l e d s t a t e v a r i a b l e s .  v a r i a b l e s involved i n a d e c i s i o n w i l l vary with the actors t h e i r h i s t o r y , and t h e i r r e s o u r c e s . the l i f e o f a d e c i s i o n problem.  The  state  involved,  They are not, t h e r e f o r e , s t a b l e  over  In t h e d y n a m i c c o a l i t i o n a l s e t t i n g , w i t h  many s t a t e v a r i a b l e s , f e w e r v a r i a b l e s a r e e x o g e n o u s .  However, the s e t s  s t a t e , c o n t r o l a n d e x o g e n o u s v a r i a b l e s a r e n o t s t a b l e , w i t h s h i f t s among them p a r a l l e l i n g the e v o l u t i o n o f a d e c i s i o n . The l i n k i n g s t r u c t u r e s a r e a l s o m o r e c o m p l e x i n a c o a l i t i o n a l setting.  Observing  s y s t e m s may  compete f o r advantage. p r o b l e m may  emerge o r o p e r a t e  i n p a r a l l e l as  The u n i q u e and c h a n g i n g n a t u r e o f t h e  require unorthodox bases of information,  actors  decision  some e x t e r n a l  to  t h e i n s t i t u t i o n . The p r i n c i p a l v a l u e s y s t e m o f a c o a l i t i o n a l d e c i s i o n process a l s o r e l a t e s to the r o l e o f i n d i v i d u a l actors or groups since maintaining  t h e g r o u p and w i n n i n g o v e r o t h e r g r o u p s w i l l be e m p h a s i z e d .  T r a d e - o f f s a c r o s s t i m e may  be made w i t h p r o m i s e s o f f u t u r e s u p p o r t  being  of  156 i n c l u d e d i n t h e r e s o l u t i o n o f a c u r r e n t p r o b l e m i n a way preserve  the c o a l i t i o n i n t o the  that will  future.  The c a u s a l r e l a t i o n s h i p s among v a r i a b l e s a r e l a r g e l y  ignored  b e f o r e d e c i s i o n s a r e made s i n c e t h e e f f e c t s a r e o f t e n d i s c o v e r e d actual results.  through  E r r o r s a r e t o l e r a t e d on t h e p r o v i s i o n t h a t i s s u e s  be r e c y c l e d t o d e v e l o p  may  a s o l u t i o n i t e r a t i v e l y , r a t h e r than avoided  on  t h e a s s u m p t i o n o f o p t i m i z a t i o n as a d e c i s i o n i s made. The c o n s t r a i n t s on c o a l i t i o n a l d e c i s i o n m a k i n g f o c u s on process  used.  P r a c t i c e s m u s t be w i t h i n a r a n g e w h i c h t h e p a r t i c i p a n t s  a c k n o w l e d g e t o be a c c e p t a b l e t h e i r view.  the  and t h e p r o c e s s m u s t a l s o be l e g i t i m a t e i n  These h i g h l i g h t the r o l e o f competing i n t e r e s t s i n  i n g d e c i s i o n o u t c o m e s s i n c e p r e s e n t a l l i e s may  be f u t u r e  adversaries.  The t i m e h o r i z o n e m p l o y e d i n c o a l i t i o n a l d e c i s i o n i s the n e c e s s i t y o f f l e x i b l e b a r g a i n i n g  determin-  shorthand  p o s i t i o n s makes c o m m i t m e n t t o  s p e c i f i c courses o f a c t i o n i n advance o f deadlines  unlikely.  Concurrently,  t h e p o s s i b i l i t y o f " r e c y c l i n g " an i s s u e makes i t f e a s i b l e t o d i s c o u n t long range i m p l i c a t i o n s of d e c i s i o n s .  Uncertainty  c o a l i t i o n a l d e c i s i o n since the opportunity causal linkages being l a r g e l y ignored.  i s very important  the in  for surprise is substantial,  However, the a m b i g u i t y  in  bargain-  i n g w h i c h s t e m s f r o m l a r g e a m o u n t o f u n c e r t a i n t y makes i t f e a s i b l e f o r c o a l i t i o n a l d e c i s i o n s t o be made. S u p p o r t f o r the c o a l i t i o n a l model o f d e c i s i o n a l s o i s l i m i t e d t o inferences from budgeting  studies.  From s u c h r e s e a r c h ,  i t would appear  t h a t d e c i s i o n s t o add o r , more l i k e l y , d e l a t e f a c u l t y members o r t o a f f e c t promotion o r tenure d e c i s i o n s through the i m p o s i t i o n o f quotas may  be made i n a c o a l i t i o n a l mode u n d e r c o n d i t i o n s o f r e l a t i v e l y  scarce  157 resources. the-board  Under those c o n d i t i o n s , the a b i l i t y to r e s i s t a r b i t r a r y a c r o s s cuts in resources  i s g r e a t e r f o r t h o s e who  are able to  bases o f i n f l u e n c e not a v a i l a b l e to t h e i r c o m p e t i t i o r s . a r b i t r a r y quota system  overrides  exercise  S i m i l a r l y , an  the r o u t i n e reviews f o r promotion  and  t e n u r e by p r e c l u d i n g a l l s u c h t r a n s i t i o n s i f a q u o t a has a l r e a d y b e e n  met.  T e s t i n g f o r Congruence The p u r p o s e o f t h i s s t u d y  i s to take a step toward the  integration  o f p o l i c y a n a l y s i s and p o l i c y r e s e a r c h by i d e n t i f y i n g a n d a p p l y i n g a technique ceding  f o r t e s t i n g f o r c o n g r u e n c e b e t w e e n a n a l y s i s a n d d e c i s i o n . The s e c t i o n has p r o v i d e d  three p r o f i l e s or c h e c k l i s t s of  i s t i c s ; one r e l a t e s t o p o l i c y a n a l y s i s t e c h n o l o g y  pre-  character-  and two t o p o l i c y  r e s e a r c h f i n d i n g s . The t e s t f o r c o n g r u e n c e i n v o l v e s p a i r e d  comparisons  b e t w e e n t h e f i r s t and e a c h o f t h e l a t t e r . M a k i n g t h e f i r s t t e s t f o r c o n g r u e n c e , i t may  be o b s e r v e d  that  the  p r o f i l e o f f a c u l t y flow models i s c l o s e l y congruent with the p r o f i l e o f organizational process  d e c i s i o n s . B o t h use a few common c o n t r o l  state variables. Their observing i n i n s t i t u t i o n a l r e c o r d s and  systems are very s i m i l a r , being  and based  routines.  The v a l u e s y s t e m s i d e n t i f i e d d i f f e r i n d e g r e e , r a t h e r t h a n i n k i n d . Flow models a t most o n l y value i m p l i c i t l y the s t a t e s which they i d e n t i f y , whereas o r g a n i z a t i o n a l process and may  d e c i s i o n c l e a r l y emphasizes the s t a t u s  c h a n g e t o s t a t e d e f i n i t i o n s as  threatening.  F l o w m o d e l s and o r g a n i z a t i o n a l p r o c e s s gruent  quo  decisions are c l o s e l y con-  i n t h a t they assume simple, s t a b l e c a u s a l r e l a t i o n s h i p s . They  d i f f e r s o m e w h a t i n t h a t f l o w m o d e l s a r e c o n s t r a i n e d by t h e i r m a t h e m a t i c s to r e f l e c t the range o f standard  p r a c t i c e , whereas o r g a n i z a t i o n a l  process  158 d e c i s i o n goes f u r t h e r to devote a t t e n t i o n t o p o l i c i n g adherence to s t a n d a r d s o f due  process.  The t i m e h o r i z o n s  f o r organizational process  f l o w m o d e l s a r e s i m i l a r i n t h a t t h e y use s h o r t - r u n  d e c i s i o n and  faculty  views. However, where  o r g a n i z a t i o n a l process w i l l ignore the middle to d i s t a n t f u t u r e , f a c u l t y f l o w m o d e l s c a n g e n e r a t e an a r b i t r a r y number o f s t e p s i n t o t h e f u t u r e p r o d u c e l o n g - r a n g e p r o j e c t i o n s . In b o t h c a s e s , h o w e v e r , t h e  and  uncertainty  s t r u c t u r e i s very s i m i l a r i n that the f u t u r e i s viewed d e t e r m i n i s t i c a l l y a n d w i t h v i r t u a l l y no s u r p r i s e s . The s e c o n d t e s t f o r c o n g r u e n c e shows f a c u l t y f l o w m o d e l s t o be a l most t o t a l l y incongruent  with c o a l i t i o n a l decision. Their control  and  state variables d i f f e r almost completely,  coalitional decision involving  more s t a t e v a r i a b l e s , but not m a i n t a i n i n g  a s t a b l e s e t . Up t o a l i m i t ,  t h e r e may  be c o n g r u e n c e i n t h e m a t t e r o f o b s e r v i n g  once information  i s required beyond that contained  systems, however, i n an i n s t i t u t i o n ' s  data base, that l i m i t i s exceeded. W h i l e f a c u l t y f l o w m o d e l s d e p e n d on s i m p l e c a u s a l l i n k a g e s , t i o n a l d e c i s i o n may  ignore such r e l a t i o n s h i p s . C o n s t r a i n t s operate  coalion  l i n k a g e s and t h e i n c o n g r u e n c e b e t w e e n f a c u l t y f l o w m o d e l s and c o a l i t i o n a l d e c i s i o n with r e s p e c t to r e l a t i o n s h i p s i s c a r r i e d through to t h e i r cons t r a i n t s . Where f l o w m o d e l s a r e c o n s t r a i n e d by t h e s u b s t a n c e o f f a c u l t y r a n k d i s t r i b u t i o n p r o b l e m and i t s m a t h e m a t i c a l o r g a n i z a t i o n a l process norms o f f a i r n e s s o r  the  representation,  d e c i s i o n i s c o n s t r a i n e d p r i m a r i l y by h i g h l y  valued  legitimacy.  The t i m e h o r i z o n i n c o a l i t i o n a l d e c i s i o n e m p h a s i z e s a d e a d l i n e d e c i s i o n , assuming the o p p o r t u n i t y  for  to r e c y c l e i s s u e s . This i s not congruent  with flow models which address n e i t h e r the t i m i n g o f r e a l d e c i s i o n s  nor  159 t h e t a k i n g o f new  d e c i s i o n s on t h e b a s i c  issue.  F i n a l l y , f a c u l t y f l o w m o d e l s and c o a l i t i o n a l d e c i s i o n s  are  c o n g r u e n t i n t h a t t h e y pay l i t t l e a t t e n t i o n t o u n c e r t a i n t y .  However,  f l o w m o d e l s do n o t i n c o r p o r a t e u n c e r t a i n t y b e c a u s e i t w o u l d  complicate  the mathematics while c o a l i t i o n a l d e c i s i o n ignores u n c e r t a i n t y i n the d e f i n i t i o n o f t h e i s s u e and t h e l i n k a g e s among v a r i a b l e s b e c a u s e c e r t a i n t y c o u l d d i s a b l e the Assessing  the  process.  Test  A t t h e o u t s e t , i t was a n d d e c i s i o n may  p o s i t e d t h a t congruence between a n a l y s i s  be i m p o r t a n t  in i n c r e a s i n g the i n f l u e n c e o f p o l i c y  a n a l y s i s on t h e s o l u t i o n o f p o l i c y p r o b l e m s . made i n t h e p r e c e d i n g  The t e s t f o r c o n g r u e n c e  s e c t i o n does not address a c t u a l i n f l u e n c e or  s o l u t i o n s , and c a n n o t be e v a l u a t e d  on s u c h a l e v e l .  This exercise sought to determine whether a comprehensive conc e p t i o n o f d e c i s i o n c o u l d be u s e d t o a n a l y z e  c o n s i s t e n t l y both a body  o f a n a l y s i s i n a i d o f d e c i s i o n and a body o f r e s e a r c h decision processes  f o r the p u r p o s e o f i d e n t i f y i n g s i m i l a r i t i e s and  d i f f e r e n c e s b e t w e e n them. been achieved  concerning  S u c h a s e t o f c a t e g o r i z a t i o n s seems t o h a v e  u s i n g the general  d e c i s i o n paradigm.  c r i t e r i o n by c r i t e r i o n c o m p a r i s o n was  Moreover, a  p o s s i b l e , showing examples o f  b o t h r e l a t i v e l y c o n g r u e n t and i n c o n g r u e n t  profiles.  The c o m p a r i s o n s b e t w e e n p r o f i l e s w e r e , h o w e v e r , n e c e s s a r i l y static.  Comparison of nine-part l i s t s provided  l i t t l e i n s i g h t into the  p r o m i s e t h a t i n t e g r a t i o n may  hold.  However, t h a t the p r o f i l i n g t a s k  f e a s i b l e and t h a t r e a s o n a b l e  d i s t i n c t i o n s between p r o f i l e s c o u l d  made w o u l d i n d i c a t e t h a t t h e e x p l o r a t o r y  s t a t i c t e s t was  was  be  satisfactory.  160 In p a r t i c u l a r , t h e k e y r o l e o f d e c i s i o n i n s t r u c t u r i n g t h e s t u d y seems valid. CONCLUSIONS The s t u d y s u g g e s t s t h r e e p r i n c i p a l c o n c l u s i o n s . notion o f conceptual  congruence i s a p r a c t i c a l t o o l .  First, the T h e s t u d y was a b l e  to conduct p r o f i l e b u i l d i n g and t o i d e n t i f y s i m i l a r i t i e s and d i f f e r e n c e s among p r o f i l e s o f a n a l y t i c a l m o d e l s a n d m o d e l s o f d e c i s i o n p r o c e s s e s . Second, t h e f a c u l t y flow models i d e n t i f i e d a r e c l o s e l y concjruent, in terms o f t h e general d e c i s i o n paradigm, with t h e o r g a n i z a t i o n a l process model o f d e c i s i o n .  The seven p o i n t s o f c l o s e congruence i d e n t i f i e d  i l l u s t r a t e how a n i m a g e o f d e c i d i n g c a n be i n c o r p o r a t e d i n t o a n a n a l y t i c treatment.  I t i s n o t p o s s i b l e t o s a y whether such  congruence  i n t h e c a s e p r o b l e m was i n t e n t i o n a l o r a c c i d e n t a l . T h i r d , the f a c u l t y flow models i d e n t i f i e d a r e almost  completely  non-congruent, i n terms o f the general d e c i s i o n paradigm, with the C o a l i t i o n a l model o f d e c i s i o n .  On a l m o s t a l l c r i t e r i a , t h e y d i f f e r i n  k i n d o r d e g r e e , m a k i n g i t c l e a r how t h e g e n e r a l d e c i s i o n p a r a d i g m h e l p s t o d i f f e r e n t i a t e among m o d e l s . As a c o r o l l a r y t o t h e p r i n c i p a l c o n c l u s i o n s , i t may be n o t e d t h a t some e v i d e n c e may s u p p o r t t h e n o t i o n o f a " g a p " ( S c h m i d t l e i n , 1 9 7 5 ) between i d e o l o g y and p r a c t i c e i n u n i v e r s i t y d e c i s i o n making, a t l e a s t as i t r e l a t e s t o f a c u l t y r a n k d i s t r i b u t i o n u n d e r c o n d i t i o n s o f r e l a t i v e l y scarce  resources.; The c o n c l u s i o n s s u p p o r t t h e b a s i c t e n e t o f t h e s t u d y , i . e . t h a t  c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f decision are i m p l i c i t i n the design o f research i n  161 aid o f decision.  The study suggested  d e c i s i o n as a key  f e a t u r e i n p o l i c y a n a l y s i s and p o l i c y research. indicate that the proposal  The  conceptual  conclusions  to apply a comprehensive conception  of  d e c i s i o n a s a n e x p l o r a t o r y t e s t f o r c o n g r u e n c e was u s e f u l i n t h a t f i l e s c o u l d b e d e v e l o p e d , .compared a n d c o n t r a s t e d . that l i n e o f research  pro-  Further extension o f  i s among t h e i m p l i c a t i o n s o f t h i s  study.  IMPLICATIONS Theory-building from the General D e c i s i o n Paradigm It has been noted t h a t t h e s t a t i c p r o f i l e s developed and used i n t h i s study a r e only a f i r s t step towards a l a r g e r s y n t h e s i s . elements i n the general  The  d e c i s i o n p a r a d i g m p r o v i d e a framework upon w h i c h  i t may b e p o s s i b l e t o b u i l d an i n t e g r a t i n g t h e o r y o f d e c i s i o n w h i c h c a n include a theory o f analysis. The d e c i s i o n m a k i n g p r o c e s s may b e c o n c e i v e d the a n a l y t i c process,  b u t t h a t r e a l l y assumes a d i v i s i o n o f l a b o r t h a t  may b e e n t i r e l y a r t i f i c i a l . performing  o f a d i s t i n c t from  C l e a r l y , t h e c o a l i t i o n a l d e c i s i o n maker i s  many a n a l y t i c a l t a s k s a s t h e d y n a m i c s a n d d r a m a o f n e g o t i a -  tions unfold.  T h e s i m p l e schema t h a t a n a n a l y s t d e v e l o p s  be c o n g r u e n t w i t h t h a t r i c h a n d c r e a t i v e  may n e v e r  process.  Yet, the p o s s i b i l i t i e s f o r extending  e x i s t i n g research are also  c l e a r i n t h e i r promise f o r improvement and i n t e g r a t i o n .  The c o a l i t i o n a l  m o d e l h i g h l i g h t s a c t o r s , b u t t h o s e a c t o r s may i n l a r g e m e a s u r e be p a r t o f o r g a n i z a t i o n a l s u b u n i t s w i t h s u b u n i t s ' g o a l s a n d p r i o r i t i e s on t h e i r minds.  Moreover, t h e o r g a n i z a t i o n i s acknowledge t o evolve and t o  l e a r n , t h e r e f o r e , any comprehensive treatment  of organizational  must be framed i n a l a r g e r c o n t e x t o f t h e o r g a n i z a t i o n ' s  process  stage o f  162 development,  and c o n d i t i o n s o f i t s environment.  S i m i l a r l y , an a c t o r i s  a human a n d w i l l h a v e p a r t i c u l a r p e r s o n a l a t t r i b u t e s , e x p e r i e n c e s a n d p r i o r i t i e s c o m i n g t o b e a r on h i s o r h e r a c t i o n s . acknowledged  t o m a t u r e , e v o l v e and c h a n g e , a n d  Humans  also  a comprehensive  are theory  w o u l d a d d r e s s t h o s e v a r i a b l e s as w e l l . T h e r e f o r e , t h e a p p a r e n t and f a c i l e d i f f e r e n c e s between o r g a n i z a t i o n a l p r o c e s s m o d e l s a n d c o a l i t i o n a l m o d e l s d i m i n i s h and b l u r o v e r when a l a r g e r view i s taken.  The t a s k f o r f u r t h e r development  of decision  t h e o r y i s t o c o m p l e t e a b l e n d i n g w h i c h has m e a n i n g f o r b o t h t h e o f a n a l y s i s and the p r o c e s s o f d e c i d i n g .  T h i s s t u d y has shown a common  s e t o f e l e m e n t s , y e t has r e l i e d t o a d e g r e e on a r t i f i c i a l tions.  conduct  simplifica-  F u r t h e r e f f o r t s m i g h t push f a r t h e r on t h a t l i n e o f b l e n d i n g , t o  a c h i e v e an i n t e g r a t i o n w h i c h c a n b o t h s e r v e t h e d i s c i p l i n e s a n d practice of institutional  the  decisionmaking.  Improvements i n F a c u l t y Flow M o d e l l i n g and R e l a t e d U n i v e r s i t y Research I t has b e e n o b s e r v e d t h a t t h e p r e s e n t f a m i l y o f f a c u l t y f l o w m o d e l s i s c l o s e l y c o n g r u e n t t o t h e o r g a n i z a t i o n a l p r o c e s s model o f d e c i s i o n , but almost completely incongruent with the c o a l i t i o n a l  model.  I n s o f a r as t h e c o a l i t i o n a l model d i f f e r s s u b s t a n t i a l l y f r o m t h e n o r m a t i v e models o f u n i v e r s i t y d e c i s i o n , the d e s i g n o f e x i s t i n g f a c u l t y flow m o d e l s may t h e r e f o r e be s e e n a s a p p r o p r i a t e , b u t s o m e w h a t l i m i t e d .  On  the o t h e r hand, i f i t i s seen as i m p o r t a n t t o have a n a l y t i c a l models which are c o n c e p t u a l l y congruent w i t h the d e c i s i o n process w i t h  which  they are to a r t i c u l a t e , c u r r e n t designs f o r f a c u l t y flow models are not appropriate.  I t may be c o n c l u d e d , t h e r e f o r e , t h a t t h e r e i s room f o r  163 i m p r o v e m e n t i n e x i s t i n g f a c u l t y f l o w m o d e l s t o make t h e m more c o n g r u e n t with organizational process concluded  d e c i s i o n making.  S i m i l a r l y , i t may  t h a t t h e r e i s n e e d f o r d e v e l o p m e n t f o r a new  be  type o f f a c u l t y  r a n k d i s t r i b u t i o n a n a l y t i c model t o complement c o a l i t i o n a l d e c i s i o n making. Improving the f i t o f e x i s t i n g f a c u l t y flow models to t i o n a l process  d e c i s i o n m a k i n g may  o f the general  d e c i s i o n p a r a d i g m t h a t c o m p r i s e w h a t may  design v a r i a b l e s :  organiza-  f o c u s p r i m a r i l y on t h e t h r e e  elements  be c a l l e d t h e  t h e c o n t r o l v a r i a b l e s , t h e s t a t e v a r i a b l e s and  the  c a u s a l l i n k a g e s among t h e m . The two b a s i c t y p e s o f c o n t r o l v a r i a b l e s a r e t h e t r a n s i t i o n r a t e s , and the t o t a l a d d i t i o n s a n d / o r d e l e t i o n s from a g i v e n f a c u l t y r a n k distribution.  Standard  p r a c t i c e does emphasize the promotion  and  t e n u r e - a w a r d t r a n s i t i o n s , b u t t h o s e d e c i s i o n s made c o n c e r n i n g t r a n s i t i o n s are based i n such o r g a n i z a t i o n a l l y compiled  individual  information  t h e p u b l i c a t i o n r e c o r d o f t h e i n d i v i d u a l , and t h e w o r k l o a d o f and s e r v i c e t h a t has b e e n c a r r i e d .  teaching  While those are s t a t e v a r i a b l e s ,  i . e . n o t o p e n t o c o n t r o l by t h e d e c i s i o n m a k e r , t h e y h a v e l i n k a g e s p r a c t i c e to the control v a r i a b l e s i n f a c u l t y flow modelling. e x a m p l e , t h e r e f o r e , i t may w o r k l o a d and s t a n d a r d To e n a b l e  as  be i m p o r t a n t  in  For  to i n c o r p o r a t e l i n k s between  control variables.  the l i n k i n g of s t a t e v a r i a b l e s o f p u b l i c a t i o n  record  and w o r k l o a d t o t h e c o n t r o l v a r i a b l e s i n a m o d e l , t h e y m u s t be a d d e d t o the s e t o f s t a t e v a r i a b l e s .  Other s t a t e v a r i a b l e s which might well  added to meet b e t t e r the c r i t e r i o n o f c o n g r u e n c e concern substructure  f o r f a c u l t y flow models.  tant to r e f l e c t standard  be  a possible  In p a r t i c u l a r , i t may  be  impor-  p r a c t i c e w h i c h d i f f e r e n t i a t e s among g r o u p s o f  164 d i s c i p l i n e s i n d e t e r m i n i n g t h e r o l e and e x p e c t a t i o n s o f f a c u l t y members. F o r e x a m p l e , t h e h e a l t h p r o f e s s i o n s may u s e f u l l y be d i f f e r e n t i a t e d f r o m t h e a p p l i e d s c i e n c e s and b o t h o f t h o s e f r o m t h e p u r e s c i e n c e s and humanities.  Hence, a s u b s t r u c t u r e i n a f a c u l t y f l o w model  a l l o w e d a t h r e e f o l d d i s a g g r e g a t i o n o f rank and appointment g r o u p s by d i s c i p l i n e w o u l d i m p r o v e which r e c o g n i z e d such  the congruence  which type  sub-  with standard practice  distinctions.  By s p l i t t i n g t h e s t a n d a r d m o n o l i t h f a c u l t y m o d e l i n t o t h r e e p a r a l l e l segments a l o n g d i s c i p l i n a r y l i n e s , the problem o f i n c l u d i n g a m e a s u r e o f b a l a n c e among them i s r a i s e d .  Even assuming  that total  f a c u l t y s i z e m u s t m e e t some p a r t i c u l a r v a l u e , i t i s n e c e s s a r y t o d e t e r m i n e how t h e t h r e e s u b u n i t s r e l a t e a n d w i l l r e l a t e t o t h a t t o t a l . To i g n o r e t h e p r o b l e m o f how t h e y m i g h t grow o r d i m i n i s h r e l a t i v e t o one a n o t h e r i s t o s p l i t t h e m o d e l l i n g p r o b l e m c o m p l e t e l y a l o n g p l i n e l i n e s and have t h r e e unconnected  models.  disci-  The l i t e r a t u r e o f  d e c i s i o n m a k i n g u n d e r an o r g a n i z a t i o n a l p r o c e s s m o d e l p r o v i d e d an o r g a n i z a t i o n a l l i n k among t h e t h r e e p a r t s o f a f u l l m o d e l i n t h e of workload  form  data.  Workload  c o u l d i n c l u d e t h e t e a c h i n g e f f o r t and s e r v i c e l o a d  c a r r i e d by t h e s u b u n i t s .  Of c o u r s e , t h i s c o m p l i c a t e s t h e model c o n s i d -  e r a b l y s i n c e i t r a i s e s the requirement o f workload f u t u r e s c e n a r i o s t o be b u i l t .  p r o j e c t i o n s to enable  However, s i m p l e assumptions  r e l a t i v e r a t e of change i n workload  about  the  c o u l d be a c c o m o d a t e d r e a d i l y and  w o u l d be c o n s i s t e n t w i t h t h e o r g a n i z a t i o n a l m o d e l o f d e c i s i o n w h i c h avoids uncertainty. A t t e n d i n g t o t h e c a u s a l l i n k a g e s among t h e e n l a r g e d s e t o f s t a t e and c o n t r o l v a r i a b l e s w o u l d r e q u i r e m o r e m a t h e m a t i c a l  statements,  but  165 n o t a g r e a t many m o r e .  O v e r a l l , the c a u s a l r e l a t i o n s h i p s i n e x i s t i n g  f a c u l t y flow models are congruent with o r g a n i z a t i o n a l a d d i n g a few w o u l d n o t c h a n g e t h a t f o r t h e w o r s e .  d e t e r m i n i s t i c r e l a t i o n s h i p s may  t o c h a n g e s h o u l d a t l e a s t be e x a m i n e d .  and  However, to  p o r a t e no s t o c h a s t i c t e r m s i n a m o d e l i s p r o b a b l y while simple,  decision  unwise.  incor-  Therefore  be u s e d , t h e i r s e n s i t i v i t y  T h a t e x a m i n a t i o n may  be a r g u e d  as an a t t e m p t t o come c l o s e r t o t h e i d e a l o f c l a s s i c a l r a t i o n a l i t y by r e l a x i n g t h e b o u n d e d n a t u r e o f t h e a n a l y s i s , o r s i m p l y as a c h e c k t o confirm that standard  p r a c t i c e has b e e n p r o p e r l y  In o t h e r r e s p e c t s ,  the e x i s t i n g f a m i l y o f f a c u l t y flow models i s  not in need o f m o d i f i c a t i o n process  decision.  incorporated.  t o b e c o m e more c o n g r u e n t w i t h  organizational  T h e r e a r e i m p l i c a t i o n s o f t h e i n c r e a s e i n number o f  s t a t e and c o n t r o l v a r i a b l e s w h i c h w i l l a f f e c t t h e o b s e r v i n g  system, i f  data concerning  p u b l i c a t i o n and so f o r t h a r e n o t a d e q u a t e l y c o l l e c t e d  or maintained.  O t h e r w i s e , the i m p l e m e n t a t i o n o f improvements t o  m o d e l s s h o u l d be r e l a t i v e l y The t a s k o f d e v e l o p i n g  straightforward. new  types o f a n a l y t i c models f o r examining  the problem of f a c u l t y rank d i s t r i b u t i o n from the viewpoint al d e c i s i o n making i s a novel  one.  W h i l e i t may  and r e q u i r e m e n t s may  be  of coalition-  be i n a p p r o p r i a t e  a t t e m p t s u c h an e n t e r p r i s e a t t h i s p o i n t i n t h e p r e s e n t preliminary observations  the  to  s t u d y , some  sketched.  C o a l i t i o n a l d e c i s i o n h i g h l i g h t s the i n d i v i d u a l s p a r t i c i p a t i n g in the making o f d e c i s i o n s about the p a r t i c u l a r i s s u e .  I f one  assumes  t h a t t h e f a c u l t y r a n k d i s t r i b u t i o n o f a u n i v e r s i t y w i l l a r i s e as i s s u e , i n w h a t way may  o r may  may  t h a t i s s u e be c o l o u r e d ?  The  n o t be u n i v e r s i t y members, t h e i s s u e may  notions of rank or tenure,  o r may  o f the f a c u l t y rank d i s t r i b u t i o n .  an  interested  parties  i n v o l v e the  basic  f o c u s on t r a n s i t i o n s o r t h e t o t a l s i z e  166 The g r e a t a m o u n t o f u n c e r t a i n t y a s s o c i a t e d w i t h a c o a l i t i o n a l view, from the p e r s p e c t i v e o f attempting t h r o u g h m o d e l l i n g , makes i t n e c e s s a r y made.  to provide a n a l y t i c a l support  t h a t some i n i t i a l a s s u m p t i o n s  Of the wide range o f p o s s i b i l i t i e s c o n c e r n i n g  be  actors, interests  and a s p e c t s o f t h e i s s u e , some o r g a n i z i n g s e t m u s t be c h o s e n . a c t o r s w o u l d p r o b a b l y come f r o m t h e o r g a n i z a t i o n ' s e x e c u t i v e  Standard and  a d m i n i s t r a t i v e h i e r a r c h y , plus those o t h e r i d e n t i f i a b l e groups,  such  as  f a c u l t y a s s o c i a t i o n s , t h a t a r e l i k e l y t o h a v e an i n t e r e s t i n a f a c u l t y rank d i s t r i b u t i o n i s s u e . Data c o n c e r n i n g  past performances o f those actors with respect to  f a c u l t y rank or r e l a t e d i s s u e s , f o r example resource a l l o c a t i o n s , c o u l d be c o m p i l e d  and r e v i e w e d  to d e t e r m i n e l i k e l y c o a l i t i o n s and p o s i t i o n s .  H o w e v e r , t h e i s s u e - s p e c i f i c n a t u r e o f t h e c o a l i t i o n a l m o d e l makes i t r i s k y to attend only to those a c t o r s . student v i s a status suddenly  For example, the matter  of  became an i s s u e i n Canada f o l l o w i n g a  p a r t i c u l a r t e l e v i s i o n documentary (e.g. Tausig, 1979). r o l e o f o u t s i d e p a r t i e s , s u c h as t h e m e d i a , m u s t n o t be From t h i s b r i e f example, the importance  Therefore,  the  overlooked.  o f l o o k i n g to other i n s t i t u t i o n s  as p o s s i b l e a l l i e s o r a d v e r s a r i e s a l s o e m e r g e s , s i n c e t h e m a t t e r o f s t u d e n t v i s a s , o r f a c u l t y c i t i z e n s h i p , o r t e n u r e i s a common o r g a n i z a t i o n a l m a t t e r w h i c h c o u l d become i m p o r t a n t  i n d i s p u t e s o r a l l i a n c e s among  universities. A t t e n t i o n t o o t h e r i n s t i t u t i o n s , and t h e a c t o r s who t o h a v e i n t e r e s t s a f f e c t i n g o n e ' s own national boundaries.  may  be s e e n  u n i v e r s i t y l e a d s one e a s i l y a c r o s s  T h a t e x e r c i s e m u s t be l e f t t o a n o t h e r  time  and  c o n t e x t , h o w e v e r , i t i s c l e a r l y i d e n t i f i e d f r o m t h i s e x e r c i s e as an important  piece o f a p p l i e d research f o r the f u t u r e .  167 T h i s s t u d y has a t t e m p t e d t o d r a w on e a r l i e r w o r k e x a m i n i n g  the  p r o c e s s by w h i c h d e c i s i o n s a f f e c t i n g f a c u l t y r a n k d i s t r i b u t i o n s a r e o r h a v e b e e n made.  O n l y two a r e a s o f r e l e v a n t l i t e r a t u r e w e r e i d e n t i f i e d ,  dealing f i r s t with incremental  budgeting  among u n i v e r s i t y d e p a r t m e n t s  u n d e r c o n d i t i o n s o f s c a r c e and r e l a t i v e l y a b u n d a n t r e s o u r c e s  and  secondly  w i t h r e q u i r e m e n t s f o r and a d h e r e n c e t o s p e c i f i e d p r o c e d u r e s f o r and p r o m o t i o n  tenure  reviews.  O t h e r i n s t i t u t i o n a l b o d i e s , s u c h as c i t y c o u n c i l s and b o a r d s i n t h e p u b l i c o r n o t - f o r - p r o f i t s e c t o r , a s w e l l as boards i n o t h e r p a r t s o f s o c i e t y , have been researched than have u n i v e r s i t y boards.  school  corporate  more e x t e n s i v e l y  U n i v e r s i t y Boards o f Governors  and  p a r t i c u l a r l y u n i v e r s i t y a d m i n i s t r a t i o n as i t r e l a t e s t o B o a r d s has  not  b e e n e x t e n s i v e l y e x a m i n e d , a n d t h e r e a r e v i r t u a l l y no s t u d i e s o f s u c h d e c i s i o n m a k i n g g r o u p s and p r o c e s s e s I t m u s t be c o n c l u d e d ,  i n Canada.  t h e r e f o r e , t h a t an i m p o r t a n t  area  for  f u r t h e r study i s the d e c i s i o n making s t r u c t u r e i n u n i v e r s i t y governance in Canada.  That research  s h o u l d use m u l t i p l e c o n c e p t u a l i z a t i o n s  d e c i s i o n to r e l a x the c o n s t r a i n t s o f model b i a s .  I f a f u l l and  of compre-  hensive  i n t e g r a t i o n o f dynamics with the elements o f Weathersby's  general  d e c i s i o n p a r a d i g m w e r e a v a i l a b l e , t h a t p r o j e c t c o u l d be d o n e  much m o r e d i r e c t l y . University  Administration  I t has b e e n n o t e d t h a t s u p p o r t may  e x i s t f o r the notion of a  gap  between i d e o l o g y and p r a c t i c e i n u n i v e r s i t y d e c i s i o n making.  If  conditions of r e s t r a i n t are causing c o a l i t i o n a l processes  supplant  organizational processes  to  present  in d e c i s i o n s a f f e c t i n g u n i v e r s i t i e s , then a  168 n o r m a t i v e q u e s t i o n a r i s e s , "Upon w h a t model s h o u l d u n i v e r s i t y d e c i s i o n s be b a s e d . " E x i s t i n g l i t e r a t u r e i n d i c a t e s c l e a r l y t h a t the i d e a l o f r a t i o n a l i t y i s h i g h l y esteemed in u n i v e r s i t i e s .  For p r a c t i c a l purposes,  o r g a n i z a t i o n a l p r o c e s s m o d e l as an a p p r o x i m a t i o n a l i t y may  of c l a s s i c a l ration-  t h e r e f o r e be p r e f e r a b l e t o c o a l i t i o n a l d e c i s i o n .  That  p o s s i b i l i t y r a i s e s an i s s u e t h a t m u s t be d e a l t w i t h by t h o s e i n o r i n f l u e n t i a l upon u n i v e r s i t y d e c i s i o n . attempting  t o add more s u b s t a n t i a l s u p p o r t  the  involved  A major shortcoming in to these observations  i s the  p a u c i t y o f research d e s c r i b i n g u n i v e r s i t y d e c i s i o n making i n Canada. I f , f o r t h e s a k e o f a r g u m e n t , one a d o p t s t h e v i e w t h a t c o a l i tional decision is supplanting  Organizational  process  in university  d e c i s i o n making, what are the i m p l i c a t i o n s f o r u n i v e r s i t y  administration?  I t w o u l d a p p e a r t h a t one o f two a l t e r n a t i v e s c o u l d p r e v a i l , one  which  w o u l d s e e k t o r e s t o r e p a s t v i r t u e s , a n d one w h i c h w o u l d i n v o l v e y e t more e r o s i o n o f t r a d i t i o n . However, t h a t a p p a r e n t dichotomy i s  over-simple.  One o f t h e m a j o r f e a t u r e s o f c o a l i t i o n a l d e c i s i o n i s t h a t  the  " p r o b l e m " c a n be r e d e f i n e d a t w i l l , i f s u f f i c i e n t p a r t i c i p a n t s a g r e e . Therefore,  a n a l y s i s o f the i m p l i c a t i o n s f o r u n i v e r s i t y p r a c t i c e must  i n c l u d e s c e n a r i o s where the c u r r e n t n o t i o n o f " u n i v e r s i t y " i s not assumed.  T h a t i s , i t i s n o t s u f f i c i e n t t o t h i n k i n t e r m s o f more o r  l e s s o f t h i s o r t h a t trend i n d e c i d i n g , but e s s e n t i a l to examine a l t e r n a t i v e s w h i c h do i n c l u d e f u n d a m e n t a l c h a n g e s i n d e f i n i t i o n . t h a t a c o a l i t i o n a l p r o c e s s may  includeoutsiders  members o f t h e p a s t o r g a n i z a t i o n .  and newly  Recall  powerful  For example, student a c t i v i s t groups,  campus u n i o n s and s p e c i a l i n t e r e s t g r o u p s h a v e b r o u g h t f o r w a r d  non-  t r a d i t i o n a l i s s u e s and d e c i s i o n s whose c o n s e q u e n c e s a r e s t i l l  being  unveiled.  169 What s h o u l d a u n i v e r s i t y a d m i n i s t r a t o r do u n d e r c o n d i t i o n s , as s c a r c e r e s o u r c e s , w h i c h p r e c i p i t a t e d e c i s i o n p r o c e s s e s  that  t o e r o d e the f u n d a m e n t a l n a t u r e o f the i n s t i t u i o n ? The f i r s t  such  threaten response  m u s t be r e p l a c e t h e s i m p l e i m a g e o f t h e u n i t a r y d e c i s i o n m a k e r i m p l i e d in the  question. The e x e r c i s e o f l e a d e r s h i p c o u l d i n v o l v e t h e b u i l d i n g o f a  d o m i n a n t c o a l i t i o n w h o s e norms e m p h a s i z e r e a s o n and a n a l y s i s . appeals  to a wider audience  adversary.  Similarly,  c o u l d o f f s e t the power o f a d i s r u p t i v e  In c o n t r a s t , t h e r e c o u l d be a s t e a d f a s t r e f u s a l t o  p a t e i n any p r o c e s s w h i c h d o e s n o t m e e t t r a d i t i o n a l s t a n d a r d s  particio f pro-  priety. T h e r e i s no a n s w e r t o t h e d e c e p t i v e l y s i m p l e , y e t p r e s s i n g , • question.  T h i s s t u d y has a r i s e n f r o m w i d e l y a c k n o w l e d g e d p r o b l e m s w i t h  a c h i e v i n g the s u p e r i o r s o l u t i o n s to such questions t h a t Harold foresaw  as a f r u i t o f p o l i c y s c i e n c e .  T h a t b o d i e s o f a n a l y s i s and  search e x i s t i s evidence o f the appeal o f the n o t i o n . t h e i r i n t e g r a t i o n remains e l u s i v e i s evidence task.  T h i s s t u d y has a t t e m p t e d  lem; h o p e f u l l y a v i t a l a s p e c t .  Lasswell  That success  rein  of the d i f f i c u l t y o f the  t o g r a p p l e w i t h one a s p e c t o f t h e T h a t no e a s y a n s w e r a r i s e s p e r h a p s  c o u l d be a c a t a l y s t t o t h e e x t e n s i o n o f t h a t e f f o r t .  prob-  170  BIBLIOGRAPHY  171 Adams, C a r l . R., R.L. H a n k i n s and R.G. S c h r o e d e r . A S t u d y o f C o s t A n a l y s i s i n H i g h e r E d u c a t i o n . 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