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The future for adult education in British Columbia : a Delphi forecast Aitken, Mary Elizabeth 1975

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THE FUTURE FOR ADULT EDUCATION IN BRITISH COLUMBIA : A DELPHI FORECAST by MARY ELIZABETH AITKEN B.A., Unive r s i t y of B r i t i s h Columbia, 1959* A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF We accept t h i s thesis as conforming to the required standard MASTER OF ARTS i n the Faculty of Education THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA July, 1975 In presenting th i s thesis in pa r t i a l fu l f i lment of the requirements for an advanced degree at the Un ivers i ty of B r i t i s h Columbia, I agree that the L ibrary sha l l make it f ree l y ava i l ab le for reference and study. I fur ther agree that permission for extensive copying of th i s thes is for scho lar ly purposes may be granted by the Head of my Department or by his representat ives. It is understood that copying or pub l i ca t ion of th is thes is for f i nanc ia l gain sha l l not be allowed without my writ ten permission. Department of Adult Education The Univers i ty of B r i t i s h Columbia 2075 Wesbroqk Place Vancouver, Canada V6T 1W5 Date August 6, 1975 i i ABSTRACT In order to predict the possible future of adult education i n British Columbia over a period of ten years to 1984, a panel composed of 20 adult education directors com-pleted this Delphi forecasting study whose objective was to extrapolate current trends i n adult education and to establish specific goals for those who w i l l be involved i n making decisions affecting future adult education policy. The methodology employed was that of the Delphi fore-casting technique. The instruments' designs were a modifi-cation of those u t i l i z e d by Enzer, et a l . i n their study: Some Prospects for Social Change by 1985 and their Impact on  Time/Money Budgets. The study was conducted over a period of six months with three sequential rounds of questionnaires. The f i r s t questionnaire displayed thirteen graphed s t a t i s t i c a l indicators reflecting trends from 1961 to 1971 i n areas relevant to adult education. Each indicator was accompanied by three possible developments related to the future changes i n the indicator. The panel's responses to this material became the basis for the second questionnaire. The portion of the study dealing with the graphed s t a t i s t i c a l indicators was completed with the return of the second questionnaire. The second portion of the study which dealt with projected potential events, their likelihood of i i i occurrence by 1984-, t h e i r estimated e f f e c t on adult education, and the expected changes i n adult education should the events occur constituted the material f o r both the second and t h i r d questionnaires. From 64- p o t e n t i a l events l i s t e d on the second questionnaire, the panel narrowed the number of p o t e n t i a l events to 29 f o r re-evaluation on the t h i r d questionnaire. This information plus the extrapolated graphed trends comprised the f i n a l data f o r analysis. The data received were both objective and subjective. With both portions of the study the t o t a l group response was considered (as i n a l l Delphi studies) to l i e i n the median, therefore the r e s u l t s were analyzed only through the median response. Consensus was set at a 70 percent (or higher) panel agreement, and t h i s consensus i n addition to the number of r e i t e r a t i o n s of any i n d i v i d u a l trend constituted the r e f i n i n g of the data. An analysis of the panel's responses as well as the implications revealed seven s p e c i f i c trends i n adult education. These trends were then correlated into goals presumed to be of primary importance i n the next decade f o r those involved i n decision making i n the f i e l d of adult education. These goals were: the expansion of t e c h n i c a l and vocational f a c i l i t i e s , co-ordination of adult education services, t r a i n i n g of a l l adult educators, recognition of and adjustment to the changing roles of B r i t i s h Columbia's community colleges and u n i v e r s i t i e s by adult educators, the recognition of and subsequent adjust-ment to the changing role of women i n the labor force, the expansion and usage of e x i s t i n g public school f a c i l i t i e s to embrace continuing education a c t i v i t i e s and the recognition of the equality of the status of adult education with present public school education. Accompanying each of the goals was a l i s t of supporting events through which the goals might be achieved. I t i s an established f a c t that i n a world of rapid technological change there can be a choice of futures. How-ever, many routes or paths should be examined i n order to choose the future most desirable i n terms of achievement of objectives. The conclusions of t h i s study should be considered therefore as representing one of a number of possible d i r -ections through which the best possible future f o r adult education i n B r i t i s h Columbia may be implemented. V TABLE OF CONTENTS Page LIST OF TABLES v i i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS v i i i Chapter 1. INTRODUCTION 1 RATIONALE , . 2 BACKGROUND 5 SCOPE 7 PLAN OF THESIS 8 2. REVIEW OF LITERATURE 9 3. PROCEDURE 18 POPULATION AND SAMPLE 18 THE INSTRUMENTS 19 Questionnaire One 20 Questionnaire Two 22 Questionnaire Three 24 4. FINDINGS 26 TRENDS AND FORCES . 27 S t a t i s t i c a l Indicators 27 PROBABILITY AND SEQUENCE OF EVENTS 36 1974. - 198O 37 1980 - 1984- 4-9 v i Chapter Page 5. GOALS FOR ADULT EDUCATION IN BRITISH COLUMBIA . . 57 SUMMARY 57 SPECIFIC TRENDS 62 GOALS FOR ADULT EDUCATION 72 CONCLUSIONS 77 REFERENCES CITED 80 SOURCE OF STATISTICAL INDICATORS 82 APPENDIX A . 83 APPENDIX B 85 APPENDIX C 101 APPENDIX D 127 APPENDIX E 146 APPENDIX F 154 v i i LIST OF TABLES Table Page 1. Projected S t a t i s t i c a l Indicators f o r 1984 . . . 58 2. Chronology of P o t e n t i a l Events 59-61 v i i i ACMOWLEDGEMENTS I wish to acknowledge the contributions both i n time and expertise of my adviser, Dr. Gary Dickinson, and of my panel: Mrs. D. Clode - Director of Adult Education, Lake Cowichan, B.C. Mr. L. Skipsey - Vice P r i n c i p a l (Continuing Education), Nanaimo, B.C. Mrs. B. Wiggins - M u l t Education Director, Port Hardy, B.C. Mr. F. Gumley - Director of Adult Education, Powell River, B.C. Mr. J . Urquhart - Director of Adult Education, Quesnel, B.C. Mr. L. O'Neill - Director of Adult Education, Okanagan College, Salmon Arm, B.C. Mr. A. Coulson - Co-ordinator of Continuing Education, Richmond, B.C. Ms. D. Edmondson - Director of Adult Education, T r a i l , B.C. Mr. N. Turik, Director of Adult Education, Vernon, B.C. Mr. R. Craven - Director of Adult Education, Abbotsford, B.C. Mr. E. Palleson - Director of Adult Education, Burnaby, B.C. Mrs. D. Ritchie - Director of Adult Education, Campbell River, B.C. Mr. G. Fry - Vice P r i n c i p a l (Continuing Education), Coquitlam, B.C. Mr. V. C a m i l l e r i - Director of Continuing Education, Courtenay, B.C. Mr. A. Kutzner - Director of Adult Education, Delta, B.C. Mrs. J . Johnson - Director of Adult Education, Fort St. John, B.C. Mr. R. Wood - Director of Adult Education, Nelson, B.C. Mr. F. Baxter - Administrator of Continuing Education, Sidney, B.C. Mr. S. Gowland - Director of Adult Education, Kelowna, B.C. Chapter 1 INTRODUCTION The r e s u l t s of a recent American Delphi study u t i l i z i n g a panel composed of public school administrators, d i r e c t o r s of vocational high schools, teachers, guidance counsellors and u n i v e r s i t y personnel indicated that the highest p r i o r i t y i n education i n the future i s the need "to develop adult education programs based on s p e c i f i c needs other than the high school equivalency programs." (22:137) To-day i n B r i t i s h Columbia adult education has experienced a persistent and unprecedented growth where ostensibly the s p e c i f i c needs of adults are being met. The future development of. adult edu-cation, however, i s less c l e a r . Timothy Weaver of the Educational P o l i c y Research Center has stated that: "Delphi, i n combination with other methods, i s a potent device f o r teaching people to think about the future of education i n much more complex ways than they o r d i n a r i l y would." (21:271) I t would appear that the time has come to re l a t e Weaver's statement to adult education i n B r i t i s h Columbia as future expectations f o r controlled growth, p o s i t i v e expressed goals, concrete p o l i c i e s and r e a l i s t i c decisions should and must be considered now. The objective of t h i s study was to u t i l i z e Weaver's "potent device," to examine current problems 1 2 and i n d i c a t i v e trends i n order to i d e n t i f y some of the i n t e r -related factors that may influence the future development of educational opportunities f o r adults i n B r i t i s h Columbia. through a forecasting study, i t i s f i r s t e s s e n t i a l to understand the concept of the future i t s e l f . There are three components i n time that are basic to the future: the past, the present, and the rate of change between the two. The i n t e r v a l between the past and the present i s closing r a p i d l y , thus placing more stress on the future. This decreasing i n t e r v a l appears mainly to be the r e s u l t of technological change. i l l u s t r a t e d by Robert Jungkt through a consideration of the i n t e r v a l between s c i e n t i f i c discoveries (the p o s s i b i l i t i e s f o r change) and t h e i r large scale applications (the r e s u l t s of change). RATIONALE To comprehend the necessity f o r examining the future This narrowing of time between past and present i s Discovery Application Time Lapse (years) Photography - 1727 Radio - 1867 T e l e v i s i o n - 1922 Transistor - 194-8 Solar Battery - 1953 1839 1902 1934-1951 1955 112 35 12 3 2 (11:17) Invention and implementation, the prime ingredients of technological change, are now occurring almost simultaneously. Forecasting i s therefore not the r e s u l t of accelerated change 3 but a concomittant both of an expanding technology and the shrinking time i n which i t s e f f e c t s are f e l t . A need to know about the re s u l t s of change (the future) has thus p a r a l l e l e d changes a f f e c t i n g the foreshortening present. This necessity f o r knowing i s made obvious i n the following analogy employed by the late philosopher and f u t u r i s t , Gaston Berger: So long as changes were spread out over long periods of time, man could be compared to someone walking along a dark road. A l l he needed to make h i s way i n reasonable safety were his eyes. Then came the comparatively f a s t e r tempo of the horse drawn carriage, and torches or l a n -terns were needed to l i g h t the road f o r some distance ahead. When the speed of the automobile was reached, powerful headlights were required to prevent c o l l i s i o n . (11:2?) The r e l a t i o n s h i p between the past and the present i n education, as i n technology i s no longer a matter of centuries; i t may be no more than a matter of minutes. With over a m i l l i o n pieces of o r i g i n a l research published every year, a new research paper appears approximately every h a l f minute to add to the t o t a l sum of human knowledge. To absorb and thus disseminate new information alone, educational i n s t i t u t i o n s charged with t h i s task must themselves become part of the confluence of past and present to enable them to plan e f f e c t i v e l y f o r the future. As Peter Drucker and others have suggested, planning does not involve future decisions, i t involves the f u t u r i t y of present decisions. (12:5) The Worth Report on Education i n Alberta i s aptly sub-t i t l e d f o r the 1970's: A Future of Choices or a Choice of  Futures. In recognizing the rate of acceleration between 4-past and present, those educators responsible f o r planning ahead or making decisions about the future must be prepared not only to comprehend the future but also to influence i t . As A l v i n T o f f l e r has stated i n Future Shock: Every society faces not merely a succession of probable futures, but an array of possible futures, and a c o n f l i c t over preferable futures. The management of change i s the e f f o r t to convert c e r t a i n possibles i n t o probables, i n pursuit of agreed-upon preferables. (18:460) Thje primary role of the decision maker i n education i s thus that of choosing the most r a t i o n a l and desirable path to follow. Education i n general has possibly been less responsive to change than other f i e l d s because of the bulkiness of i t s bureaucracy. Adult education, perhaps because of the hetero-genity of i t s population or the scope of i t s offerings, has shown more f l e x i b i l i t y . This does not mean however, that those who make decisions regarding the future of adult education may r e l y s o l e l y upon the f l e x i b i l i t y of the system or the solutions of the past to ensure the most r e l i a b l e and practicable path to t r a v e l i n the future. Adult educators must be prepared to examine the three basic components of the future: they must look back, look around them, and, i n comparing t h e i r obser-vations, look ahead. The purpose of t h i s study i s not to pretend to i l l u m i n -ate the entire future of adult education, i t i s merely to examine, through the medium of a panel expert i n the f i e l d of adult education, p o t e n t i a l events foreseen as a f f e c t i n g the future of adult education over the next decade and thus to suggest pot e n t i a l goals or avenues f o r change 5 BACKGROUND In order to locate adult education temporally i n B r i t i s h Columbia and to underline the importance of considering i t s future, i t i s necessary to examine the remarkable growth of adult education within t h i s province. A b r i e f study of the h i s t o r y of i t s growth indicates that 120 years ago the f i r s t recorded attempt to provide adult education occurred at Craigflower where s e t t l e r s formed a s c i e n t i f i c i n s t i t u t e " i n which members took turns l e c t u r i n g to the group." (17:116) Inst i t u t e s sponsored by the churches, private schools, and other agencies comprised the bulk of adult education i n B r i t i s h Columbia u n t i l 1885 when the f i r s t l o c a l Teacher Inst i t u t e was formed i n V i c t o r i a . Many more sponsoring agencies f o r adult education emerged l a t e r including l i b r a r i e s , museums and p r o v i n c i a l government departments. Adult education became the province of the Department of Education i n the 1930*s, and i t was used as a "means f o r introducing recreation, s e l f - h e l p and other newer type programs." (20:6) This was followed by a period of intensive e f f o r t and extensive t r a i n i n g made necessary by the " i n d i v i d u a l and m i l i t a r y needs of the Second World War and l a t e r by the r e h a b i l i t a t i v e needs a f t e r the war." (20:8) The f i r s t f u l l time night school d i r e c t o r was appointed i n Vancouver i n 19*5. Since the l a t e 1950's, adult education i n general, 6 and public school adult education i n p a r t i c u l a r , have experienced phenomenal growth. Enrolments i n the l a t t e r have more than quadrupled, "with a growth from 40,867 i n 1959/60 to 180,282 i n 1971." (1:15) Therefore, i n a period of l i t t l e more than a century, adult education enrolments have swelled from a mere handful to almost o n e - f i f t h of a m i l l i o n p a r t i c i p a n t s with the greatest period of growth occurring i n approximately one-tenth of the time. Although enhancing the public reputation of continuing education, t h i s rapid growth has also tended to make adult education the v i c t i m of what might be c a l l e d the "Topsy" syndrome. This spontaneous and unregulated development has resulted i n both an overlap of services and a lack of co-ordination, and thus a less e f f i c i e n t and perhaps more c o s t l y service. In addition, competition f o r par t i c i p a n t s among colleges, u n i v e r s i t i e s , public night schools, recreation departments and volunteer agencies has discouraged co-operation. Introduced by the panel, these and other issues as, for example, the community school, day care and teacher t r a i n i n g f o r adult educators, became the main points f o r consideration, argument and concern throughout the study. The f i n a l forecast represents an informed, r a t i o n a l and controlled examination of those factors and t h e i r estimated impact on adult education i n B r i t i s h Columbia, The completed study represents a possible guideline f o r those presently engaged i n the decision-making process about the future of 7 adult education translated into specific goals with those supporting events requisite to the fulfillment of the goals. SCOPE In order to obtain a homogeneity of expertise, the panel asked to participate i n the study were a l l adult education directors of either public night school programs, community colleges or vocational/technical adult education divisions. Similarly i n referring to adult education and i t s future, the scope i s restricted to programs under the j u r i s -diction of the Department of Education. Of the sixty-eight directors i n i t i a l l y contacted, thirty-eight agreed to participate. Thirty completed the f i r s t two questionnaires, and twenty completed a l l three questionnaires. The time period necessary to complete the three rounds was approximately six months. The methodology chosen was based on the Delphi technique, a method which originated with Theodore Gordon and Olaf Helmer i n 1964 at the Rand Corporation. It i s classified as intuitive forecasting which relies upon a panel of individuals expert i n their particular f i e l d to in t u i t the future through a series of sequential sets or rounds of questionnaires, which allow for anonymity, controlled feedback and s t a t i s t i c a l group response. The format of one particular experimental Delphi model developed at the Institute of the Future i n a study entitled; Some Prospects for Social Change by 1985 and their Impact on Time/Money Budgets: Enzer, L i t t l e and Lazar, (7) was employed as a means of: 1) r e - t e s t i n g i t s v a l i d i t y ; 2) estimating the value of t r a n s f e r r i n g methodologies from one d i s c i p l i n e (economics) to another, (education); and 3) forecasting one foreseeable future for adult education i n B r i t i s h Columbia. Three rounds were conducted by mail with panel members. The r e s u l t or forecasts from each round were chan-nelled through the d i r e c t o r of the study f o r synthesis and refinement. These forecasts were then returned to the panel for re-assessment f o r the next round. The f i n a l or t h i r d questionnaire represented the f i n a l forecast. PLAN OF THESIS I t i s the intent i n t h i s study to discuss, i n the second chapter, the Delphi method and to examine current Delphi studies with p a r t i c u l a r reference to the limited number undertaken i n the f i e l d of adult education. The t h i r d chapter w i l l describe i n d e t a i l the methodology chosen and the three instruments constructed and d i s t r i b u t e d through the Delphi sequence. The fourth chapter w i l l describe and in t e r p r e t the data received and t h e i r implications i n terms of, f o r example, projected manpower needs, expansion of f a c i l i t i e s , anticipated p a r t i c i p a t i o n patterns and forecast socio-economic s h i f t s . The f i f t h and f i n a l chapter w i l l d i s -cuss the trends i d e n t i f i e d through the data analysis and thus the s p e c i f i c goals f o r adult education which may be considered as a r e s u l t of the implications of that data. Chapter 2 REVIEW OF LITERATURE The following chapter discusses the Delphi method and examines several recent studies conducted using that methodology, with s p e c i a l reference to a few studies related to adult education. Forecasting the future has developed from primitive r e l i g i o u s prophecies before the year of Christ's b i r t h to the sophisticated technological forecasts and forecasting methodologies of the 3970's. Futures' research has been concerned p r i m a r i l y with the f i e l d of technology and has only recently begun to be adapted to the s o c i a l sciences such as education. In a recent a r t i c l e about the Delphi f o r e -casting method, Timothy Weaver states: I t has simply been the case i n education that the time lag between i n i t i a l p o l i c y decision and measurable impact i s very long . . . . I t follows that educational planning and p o l i c y decision must increasingly make use of forecasting tools whose purpose i t would be to continually conduct and assess studies of the future. (21:267) Although t h i s statement could as well apply to adult education, i t would appear that both decision makers and researchers i n adult education have consistently ignored an examination of the future. The paucity of l i t e r a t u r e relevant to forecasting i n the f i e l d of adult education necessitated more comprehensive 9 10 review of the l i t e r a t u r e relevant to the Delphi method i n general including i t s advantages, disadvantages and scope, and to the few research studies i n education or adult edu-cation employing the Delphi method. From t h i s review i t was then possible not only to choose a model suitable to the stated objective of the study, but also to j u s t i f y i t and i t s subsequent adaptation as a research t o o l . The Delphi forecasting method employed i n t h i s study originated with Theodore Gordon and Olaf Helrner i n 1964-working at the Rand Corporation. Their study was "an experi-ment i n trend p r e d i c t i n g and forecasting ten to f i f t y years ahead i n s i x broad areas, including s c i e n t i f i c breakthrough, automation, space programs and future weapons systems." (9:72) The technique used i n the study was based on the idea of making e f f e c t i v e use of informed i n t u i t i v e judgment and com-bining i n d i v i d u a l judgments systematically to obtain a reasoned consensus through the use of a s p e c i f i c a l l y chosen group or committee. Attempts to pool human resources and successfully arrive at decisions have resulted i n a p r o l i f e r a t i o n of groups such as committees, councils and panels. Unfortunately these t r a d i t i o n a l methods have serious flaws. Studies con-ducted over the l a s t few decades have exposed some of the d i f f i c u l t i e s . One major drawback i s the influence of the dominant i n d i v i d u a l , sometimes c a l l e d the bandwagon e f f e c t . Semantic "noise" which introduces i r r e l e v a n t or redundant material i s another problem. A t h i r d d i f f i c u l t y i s group pressure that puts a premium on 11 compromise, A fourth problem i s the unwillingness of ind i v i d u a l s to abandon p u b l i c l y expressed opinion. (6:26) The primary advantages of the Delphi method are presumed to be i n three specialized features that are designed to reduce some of the psychological problems previously l i s t e d . The f i r s t feature i s anonymity. Because the panel members selected never became acquainted with other panelists* names during a Delphi sequence, t h e i r judgment w i l l not be clouded by personal knowledge of or p r i o r associations with any other p a r t i c u l a r p a n e l i s t s . An i n d i v i d u a l panelist may change h i s mind or opinion without the p o s s i b i l i t y of l o s i n g face. The second advantage, controlled i t e r a t i o n , provides for the channelling of opinion and ideas through the d i r e c t o r who acts as "absentee chairman" and i s allowed to focus on relevant information. This channelling of information also permits the i n d i v i d u a l members of the group to concentrate on the objectives of the study without the p o s s i b i l i t i e s of major and minor s p l i n t e r groups within the larger committee or panel r e - i t e r a t i n g the same argument and eventually even proposing agreement or consensus f o r i t s own sake. The t h i r d area, s t a t i s t i c a l group response, allows a presentation of a t o t a l i t y of opinions. The usual reporting procedure shows the median and the upper and lower quartile responses on each concept to be reviewed and evaluated. The entire group opinion i s r e f l e c t e d through the median, while 12 the extreme range or spread of opinion i s shown i n the upper and lower q u a r t i l e s . The disadvantages or p r i n c i p a l arguments against the Delphi method were obtained from experienced former panel members and summarized by Bernstein and Cetron: 1. Panel members d i s l i k e beginning with a blank piece of paper. A set of sample projections would improve the panel member's understanding of h i s task and stimulate patterns of thought. 2. The extensive number of interactions required by the Delphi process r e s u l t s i n a heavy investment of time. The panelist i s prone to resent t h i s imposition. 3. A f t e r the several rounds, the panelists may be faced with evaluating projections i n areas t o t a l l y outside h i s area of expertise. Several former pan e l i s t s i n d i -cated much indignation over being asked to play the r o l e of "expert" and being forced to give a layman's view under the guise of expert opinion. 4-. A lack of goal orientation leaves the questions; When has the information been refined enough? When do we stop the i t e r a t i o n process? 5. E f f o r t s to determine event f e a s i b i l i t y and d e s i r -a b i l i t y are r a r e l y addressed. 6. Most importantly, no e f f o r t i s made to: (a) determine event i n t e r r e l a t i o n s h i p s ; (b) prepare "menus" of a l t e r -native short-, mid-, and long-range goals; or (c) i d e n t i f y the supporting events desirable and necessary to make these goals achievable. 7. The basic design of such a technique precludes the (hopefully empathetic) give-and-take p o t e n t i a l l y possible i n face-to-face confrontation. (5*33} Despite, or perhaps because of, Bernstein and Cetron's c r i t i c i s m s a considerable amount of time and e f f o r t has been expended both to v e r i f y the v a l i d i t y of the Delphi technique and to expand and enhance i t s p r a c t i c a b i l i t y . Most forecasts usually deal with r e l a t i v e l y long range p o s s i b i l i t i e s anywhere 13 from ten to one hundred years i n the future and t h i s f a c t o r , coupled with the problem of the basic paradox of forecasting, make i t d i f f i c u l t to assess forecasts. I t i s however, possible to assess the method i t s e l f . In a recent a r t i c l e i n The F u t u r i s t , Martino, discussing the consistency of panel responses i n Delphi forecasts concludes the net r e s u l t of these comparisons (that i s , of the same study conducted with d i f f e r e n t panels) i s that forecasts produced by the Delphi procedure do tend to be consistent. Different panels with equal expertise w i l l tend to produce about the same r e s u l t s . He states: This evidence should be reassuring to those faced with the necessity of u t i l i z i n g expert opinion i n preparing a forecast. They can have a high degree of confidence that a d i f f e r e n t panel would have produced about the same forecast. (14:67) Another series of evaluative studies on the Delphi method were conducted by Norman Dalkey with a group of upper class and graduate students from UCLA. One question t y p i c a l of those asked on the almanac type questionnaire was: "How many telephones were there i n A f r i c a i n 1965?" These types of questions were asked because; 1. the subjects did not know the answer, but had enough background information so that they could make an informed estimate, 2. v e r i f i a b l e answers were available, and 3. the answers were numerical so that a reasonably wide range of performances could be scaled. As a r e s u l t of these experiments, Dalkey concluded 14-that: "the Delphi procedure creates a well defined process which can be described quant i t a t i v e l y and that the anonymous feedback of Delphi should produce a r e s u l t superior to that gained by the normal methods." (13:178) V e r i f y i n g the Delphi's u t i l i t y i n his a r t i c l e "Delphi + Computers + Communications =» ?, Turoff comments; Today Delphi techniques are being applied to complex and meaningful problems i n society. Although Delphi designers maybe accused of jumping ahead of s c i e n t i f i c rigour i n applying new design techniques without adequate experimentation they are meeting a r e a l need f o r improving group communications structures . . . . I t i s evident to those who have looked at the current scope of Delphi designs that a number of useful techniques f o r handling the communication and presentation of various types of complex issues have already been produced . . . . (19:246) The scope of Delphi designs and modifications i n industry, business and the m i l i t a r y , include the examination of p o l i c y issues, P o l i c y Delphi, SOON (Sequence of Opportunities and Negatives), Charts based on PROBE, a Delphi method developed by North and Pyke, and the SEER (System f o r Event Evaluation and Review) created by the Naval Supply Systems Command. In order to reduce the lengthy time process involved i n the usual Delphi study, the I n s t i t u t e of the Future (U.S.) plans to set up a "permanent, e l e c t r o n i c , world wide Delphi c i r c u i t which would be connected to a central computer." (11:28) In the f i e l d of education the Delphi has been used and modified f a r less extensively. As Robert Judd comments i n the Use of Delphi Methods i n Higher Education: " I f you consult Rand Corporation l i s t i n g s , you f i n d one entry on Delphi i n education out of a t o t a l of forty-one l i s t i n g s . " (10:173) However, Judd does examine the scope of the 1 5 employment of Delphi over such areas as: educational goals and objectives; curriculum and campus planning; development of evaluation c r i t e r i a ; r a t i n g scales; and effectiveness of cost/benefit measures. He enumerates eighteen studies some of which are: 1. The National Center f o r Higher Education Management Systems study to gain i n s i g h t into the possible changes i n post secondary education i n the next seven to f i f t e e n years, 2. Focus Delphi which was a state-wide e f f o r t conducted by DeLayne Hudspeth to acquire i n s i g h t into future goals and objectives i n higher education. 3. The Roger Uhl three state study which sought to val i d a t e an i n s t i t u t i o n a l goals inventory which could be presented as a survey package f o r i n s t i t u t i o n a l s e l f examination purposes, 4. The Coordinating Board of Advanced Education and Accreditation i n New Hampshire whose purpose was to i n s t i t u t e ; "development by each state of a long-range plan f o r the determination of construction needs f o r i t s i n s t i t u t i o n s of higher education," 5. The Governor's State U n i v e r s i t y Needs Assessment survey by Daniel Norton f o r the Educational Testing Service, 6 . The Cochran Study (Cochran was a co-author with Delphi experimenter Norman Dalkey) at East Texas State U n i v e r s i t y on obtaining consensus about the value of ch a r a c t e r i s t i c s of teachers i n a college, 7. Fox and Brookshire at the Unive r s i t y of North Colorado who undertook to use a Delphi exercise with at ninety-r.one f a c u l t y member panel to l i s t the ingredients of e f f e c t i v e college teaching. (10:174-183) A further modification of Focus Delphi (Judd's l i s t , number two) was carr i e d out at the Educational P o l i c y Research Centre i n 1972) That study was undertaken to modify and tes t the modifications of both the Delphi and the Cross Impact Matrix methods i n order to "turn these devices i n t o tools f o r policy-makers and i n s t i t u t i o n a l planners and to allow multiple publics to contribute to the p o l i c y formulation process" (16:18) and resulted i n an instrument which the author c a l l e d the Focus Delphi and the Cross-Purpose Matrix. Several Canadian studies have used or adapted the Delphi technique to the problems of education. One study undertaken i n 1970 e n t i t l e d , General Education i n Post  Secondary Non U n i v e r s i t y Educational I n s t i t u t i o n s i n Alberta by Desmond Berghofer examined the "concept of general education as d i s t i n c t from s p e c i f i c vocational and academic preparation with respect to problems l i k e l y to face society during the next t h i r t y years." (4:25) A doctoral d i s s e r t a t i o n by David Saul, Toward a Con-sensual Model for the Re-design of Professional C u r r i c u l a addressed the problem of achieving consensus on c u r r i c u l a through a comparison of input from both learners ( i n t h i s case, medical students) and instructors (medical doctors). (14:7) A further modification of Saul's model was carried out under the Research and Development branch of the Ontario Education Community Authority i n 1973* E n t i t l e d , Learning fo r Change, i t appears to be the f i r s t major study i n Canada of the future educational needs of adults. The s p e c i f i c objective was to obtain information about: What knowledge and/or s k i l l s need to be acquired by the c i t i z e n s of Ontario who desire to adapt themselves successfully to an ever-changing world and, at the same time, to play an active role i n the achievement of a more humane society? (15^3) The number of studies i n education or adult education employing the Delphi are l i m i t e d . Because none of the l i t e r a t u r e reviewed appeared to u t i l i z e a Delphi approach transferrable to the objectives of t h i s study, i t was necessary to examine studies outside the f i e l d of education but s t i l l within the realm of the s o c i a l sciences. A study by Enzer et a l , Some Prospects f o r S o c i a l Change by 1985 and t h e i r  Impact on Time/Money Budgets (7) appeared to be a model suitable for adaptation because: 1. i t was an experimental study undertaken at the In s t i t u t e of the Future eight years a f t e r the appearance of the o r i g i n a l Delphi and had thus addressed some of the basic problems associated with the method. 2. i t gave a concrete s t a r t i n g point f o r the f i r s t round i n the form of a model of s t a t i s t i c a l trends. 3. i t u t i l i z e d a small panel, and although conducted by three d i r e c t o r s , i t was within the realm of p o s s i b i l i t y to conduct the sequence using only one d i r e c t o r . Chapter 3 PROCEDURE The study design suggested by Enzer, et a l , was modified f o r use i n the present study. This chapter describes the sample, the instruments and the procedures through which an attempt was made to assess some of the areas of concern regarding the future of adult education i n B r i t i s h Columbia. POPULATION AND SAMPLE The i n i t i a l step i n embarking on a Delphi study i s the s e l e c t i o n of a panel. I t was decided to form the panel from those i n administrative positions i n adult education because they would represent not only i n d i v i d u a l s with a homogeneity of background and expertise but also those most l i k e l y to influence future p o l i c i e s and decision making i n adult education i n B r i t i s h Columbia. Because a study of t h i s type represents a s i g n i f i c a n t contribution of time, a l e t t e r (See Appendix A) was sent to sixty-eight d i r e c t o r s of adult education - of whom the majority represented public night school, the minority, community colleges - asking f o r t h e i r co-operation. The l e t t e r outlined the purpose of the study, then the generalized use of fo r e -casting as a means of assessing the future, and, more s p e c i f i -c a l l y , the reason behind the choice of the Delphi method. 18 19 The l e t t e r also described the f i r s t questionnaire and i n d i -cated the estimated time required to complete the sequence. Of the sixty-eight people o r i g i n a l l y contacted, t h i r t y - e i g h t agreed to co-operate. T h i r t y p a n e l l i s t s completed the f i r s t questionnaire, twenty submitted the second, and twenty completed the t h i r d . The predominant reason f o r f a i l i n g to become involved i n the study was given as lack- of time. The f i n a l panel was therefore composed of twenty adult education d i r e c t o r s . A panel of f i f t e e n members i s con-sidered the smallest Delphi panel from which r e l i a b l e or usable forecasts may be obtained. Therefore, although representing a li m i t e d number of administrators, the sample was of s u f f i c i e n t size to complete the sequence i n a mode sa t i s f a c t o r y to the re q u i s i t e s of Delphi forecasts i n general. In percentages, the number who completed the f i r s t question-naire, t h i r t y , represented eighty percent completion by those who agreed to p a r t i c i p a t e . The twenty who completed the second and t h i r d questionnaires represented a return of 66.7 percent of those completing the f i r s t instrument. These percentages were deemed s u f f i c i e n t , given such an extended period of time as the s i x months over which t h i s study was carried out and the. general requirements of the Delphi technique. THE INSTRUMENTS Many Delphi studies begin with what i s known as the "blank sheet of paper" approach where p a n e l l i s t s are asked to make predictions over broad areas. This approach has often 20 been c r i t i c i z e d as too generalized and vague, so the model chosen f o r t h i s study u t i l i z e d a set of s t a t i s t i c a l i n d i c a t o r s as a s t a r t i n g point. This approach was considered more practicable as i t offered a s p e c i f i c focus on trends that might have a bearing on the future of adult education. Questionnaire One The point of departure f o r t t h i s f i r s t questionnaire was a set of t h i r t e e n s t a t i s t i c a l indicators which appeared to be relevant to adult education. Of the t h i r t e e n indicators chosen, four were from the area of economics; increase i n labor force, change i n age group d i s t r i b u t i o n s , number of females employed, and s h i f t i n population from r u r a l to urban areas. The remaining nine r e f l e c t e d trends i n education which appeared to bear d i r e c t l y on adult education; number of public night school i n s t r u c t o r s , number of administrators i n public night school operations, number of school d i s t r i c t s o f f e r i n g public night school programs, part time academic (un i v e r s i t y transfer) enrolment i n community colleges, night school enrolment i n technical/vocational schools, u n i v e r s i t i e s ' operating and c a p i t a l expenditures, f u l l time u n i v e r s i t y enrolment, and enrolment i n the Department of Adult Education at the University of B r i t i s h Columbia. Each i n d i c a t o r was presented graphically, showing the past trend from 1961 to 1971* and was accompanied by three possible developments which were presented as possibly related to future changes i n the i n d i c a t o r . 21 The respondents were asked to perform four tasks: 1) i d e n t i f y the indicators that would be most useful for further evaluation i n l i g h t of the study's purpose; 2) e s t i -mate to 1984, through extending the graphic trend l i n e s , the course of the indicators they selected as most useful; 3) specify which of the possible developments accompanying each i n d i c a t o r selected would be important to changes i n the future of adult education; and 4 ) rate t h e i r own l e v e l of expertise i n r e l a t i o n to the subject of each i n d i c a t o r as expert, quite f a m i l i a r , casual or unfamiliar. The purpose of these tasks was to obtain some quantitative measure of the future courses of trends that the panel regarded as important to adult education, and, i n addition, to use these estimates to i d e n t i f y future events that might have such importance. The f i r s t page of the questionnaire was a sample of the format, using r i s e i n personal per capita income as an ind i c a t o r . The accompanying l e t t e r (See Appendix B) described the format of the questionnaire. Panelists were asked to make two q u a l i f i c a t i o n s i n t h e i r forecasts: 1) to predict what they thought would a c t u a l l y happen rather than what they hoped would happen and 2) to state developments i n such terms that t h e i r occurrence or non occurrence could be ascertained r e t r o s p e c t i v e l y i n 1984. The only assumption respondents were to consider was that the world would avoid a large scale holocaust or disast e r from either man made or natural i causes. 22 The s t a t i s t i c a l indicators extrapolated by the panel were accompanied by 175 remarks and comments. Ninety of these were i n the nature of reasons which explained the extrapolation while 85 were statements of future events that the respondents thought would occur and a f f e c t the extrapo-l a t i o n s . The reasons and suggested events or developments were then consolidated under those headings and subjected to further evaluation by the panel i n questionnaire two. Questionnaire Two The second-round questionnaire was divided into three parts. The f i r s t part consisted of a summary of the responses to the candidate items or developments accompanying the in d i c a t o r s . With a t o t a l of 30 panelists, the responses were given i n both percentages and actual numbers. Of the 39 o r i g i n a l items, seventeen which had a response of f i f t y percent or more were retained f o r further evaluation. Added to these seventeen were 4-7 new developments or events which the p a n e l i s t s considered would have a bearing on the future of adult education. These six t y - f o u r items comprised Part Two of the questionnaire. With each p o t e n t i a l event respondents were asked to indicate: 1) the year by which the l i k e l i h o o d of occurrence reaches f i f t y percent by writing i n a year or "never"; 2) the l i k e l i h o o d of occurrence by 1984 through writing i n a number from 0 to 100%; 3) an estimate of the change i n adult education that would be expected i f the event 23 occurred by r a t i n g the change as, "very great, great, moderate, s l i g h t or none"; 4-) the nature of the changes anticipated i f the change were rated as very great or great. The t h i r d part contained the graphed s t a t i s t i c a l i n d i c a t o r s and summarized the panel's previous estimates of the future course of these i n d i c a t o r s . The upper and lower qu a r t i l e responses of the entire panel, the median estimate of the "expert" and "quite f a m i l i a r " subgroups, and the i n d i v i d u a l respondents* previous response were given on the graph. Also shown were the reasons suggested by the panelists i n making t h e i r i n i t i a l estimates. These reasons were sorted i n t o two groups, one f o r the higher (upper q u a r t i l e ) and one f o r the lower (lower qu a r t i l e ) estimates. Each respondent was asked to re-evaluate only those indicators that he had estimated i n the i n i t i a l questionnaire, using the following procedure: a f t e r reviewing and evaluating the reason give i f an event seemed possible to occur, to estimate the e f f e c t of i t s occurrence on the course of the trend l i n e to 1984-. Three columns were given f o r t h i s ; a prime factor, l i t t l e or no e f f e c t , v i r t u a l l y impossible. Panelists were also encouraged to add further reasons. Afte r assessing the reasons by checking one of the three categories the respondents were asked to re-estimate t h e i r extrapolation. The second questionnaire was sent out with appropriate sample pages and accompanying explanatory l e t t e r (See Appendix C). The results were received over a period of approximately s i x weeks. 24 As part one of the questionnaire was purely-descriptive and part three was completed at t h i s stage of the study, part two remained the only portion which would comprise the material f o r the t h i r d questionnaire. In order to eliminate events which the panel considered of l e s s e r importance, the r a t i n g information given i n the t h i r d column of Part Two was examined. Numerical values were assigned to the r e l a t i v e degree of change expected i n adult education i f the event occurred, as follows: Very great = 4 Great = 3 Moderate = 2 S l i g h t = 1 None = 0 Those events which received the highest ranking i n each of the very great, great and moderate impact categories were selected f o r further review. Duplications reduced the t o t a l number of events from a possible maximum of 4-5 to 29» These 29 events were re-evaluated by the panel i n the f i n a l questionnaire. Questionnaire Three In t h i s f i n a l questionnaire with accompanying l e t t e r , d i r e c t i o n s , and sample page (See Appendix D), the panel was presented with the 29 selected p o t e n t i a l events derived from round two, part two. For each event, the respondents were shown the upper and the lower qua r t i l e s , the median response, and t h e i r own i n d i v i d u a l responses marked i n red f o r the three categories of (a) year which l i k e l i h o o d of occurrence 25 reaches 50%; (b) l i k e l i h o o d of occurrence by 1984; and (c) the impact on adult education anticipated by the group i f the event occurred. Also presented were the changes or causes of changes i n adult education suggested i n round two, assuming that the event occurred. The panelists were required, a f t e r reading through and assessing the information given, to judge each event i n d i v i d u a l l y and to then: 1) mark t h e i r current estimate i n categories a, b, and c; 2) to add further comments to the "changes expected" column; and j ) to evaluate each of the suggested changes, i n one of three columns marked "agree," "possible but unimportant," or "disagree." In making these evaluations the respondents were directed to consider that: 1) i f they thought the change l i s t e d was a d i r e c t and important factor supporting t h e i r estimate of the impact on the event on adult education to mark the "agree" column; 2) i f they thought i t might have a bearing but was not of major importance to mark the "possible but unimportant" column and 3) i f they considered the change was too u n l i k e l y to be included i n evaluating the impact of the event on adult education to mark the "disagree" column. The responses to t h i s t h i r d and f i n a l questionnaire were received i n l a t e June. The r e s u l t s of that questionnaire plus part three of questionnaire two therefore comprise the findings of t h i s study as discussed i n Chapter Four. Chapter 4-FINDINGS As might be expected i n a study of t h i s type, the data received were both objective and subjective. This chapter reports the findings by expressing that material which i s most s i g n i f i c a n t to the future of adult education as a combination of these two types of data. Because the entire group opinion i s best expressed through the median, the median estimate i s the only one u t i l i z e d f o r presentation of data. The complete graphed s t a t i s t i c a l findings are displayed i n Appendix E and the predicted p o t e n t i a l events appear i n Appendix F. The f i r s t portion of the chapter deals with the graphed s t a t i s t i c a l i ndicators (Questionnaire Two, part three). The second portion w i l l deal with 24 of the 29 p o t e n t i a l events which were selected f o r and re-evaluated i n Questionnaire Three. Five p o t e n t i a l events were eliminated from t h i s chapter because they were projected to occur a f t e r 1984. As implications of these 24- p o t e n t i a l events are included as changes or causes of changes i n adult education as seen by the panel, the more precise and co-ordinated ramifications of the t o t a l events are given l a t e r under s p e c i f i c headings. Implications other than those i n t r o -duced by the panel are offered where a p o t e n t i a l event and the changes expected to occur do not appear to be s e l f 26 evident or were l e f t unexplored by the panel 27 TRENDS AND FORCES The findings f o r t h i s section are reported as the f i n a l estimated median number f o r 1984 f o r each graphed s t a t i s t i c a l i n d i c a t o r plus the 1971 f i g u r e ; the reasons given f o r the response to each i n d i c a t o r which were rated both as a "prime factor" i n evaluating the course or trend of the i n d i c a t o r s , and given top p r i o r i t y (over 70% agreement of the panel) i n the prime factor category; and the implications of each of the s t a t i s t i c s . S t a t i s t i c a l Indicators Increase i n labour force. The median estimate of the t o t a l number of persons i n the labor force by 1984- was 1,250,000. The prime factors that were f e l t to influence the growth from 905»000 persons i n 1971 were: greater employ-ment caused by a shorter work week and the larger proportion of working women (100%); an increase i n secondary production based on primary industry (75%); marginal farm employment becoming proportionately less important i n o v e r a l l employment as t e r t i a r y industry develops (100%); more e f f e c t i v e b i r t h control (75%); improved day care f a c i l i t i e s (86%). The projected 34-5,000 increase i n the labour force suggests that there w i l l be an accelerated need f o r on-the-job and pre-employment programs e s s e n t i a l to an increasingly sophisticated job market f o r those re-entering or newly 28 entering the labor force. Age group d i s t r i b u t i o n . The median estimates of the t o t a l number of persons i n the three age groups by 1984 were 500,000 i n the age 10 to 19 year group, (425,000 i n 1971); 525,000 i n the age 20 to 24 year group (200,000 i n 1971); and 595,000 i n the 35 to 44 year group (252,000 i n 1971)« The prime factors that were f e l t to influence t h i s s h i f t i n age d i s t r i b u t i o n were that population would increase generally (75%); the number of children per family would be reduced (77%); and the post war baby bulge would move through the age pyramid (71%)• The projected increased growth of 143,000 i n the 35 to 44 year group and the reduced growth of the 24 year and under group w i l l , at least over the next two or three decades, increase the number of adults who are possible p a r t i c i p a n t s i n adult education a c t i v i t i e s . As t h i s i s often the major group from which public night school p a r t i c i p a n t s are drawn, a projected increase of t h i s size would c e r t a i n l y place heavy demands on e x i s t i n g f a c i l i t i e s and programs. Number of employed females. The median estimate of the t o t a l number of women i n the labour force by 1984 was 56%. The prime factors that were f e l t to influence t h i s growth from 36% i n 1971 were: the number of females employed w i l l more c l o s e l y approach the number available to work (81%); greater acceptance of females working i n industry (93%); desire f o r s e l f f u l f i l l m e n t outside the home (100%); better 29 family planning (76%); concerted e f f o r t s of status of women groups (70%); most women w i l l re-enter the labor force a f t e r r a i s i n g families (75%). This projected marked increase of 20% more females i n the labor force suggests that i n ten years the labor force might be dominated (by 6%) by women. This concept suggests that the trend may be moving toward the Scandinavian experience where husbands and wives either share the same job or where a co-operative decision i s made as to who w i l l be the wage earner. This would c e r t a i n l y project adult education t r a i n i n g programs f o r men i n homemaking, c h i l d rearing and related subjects. I t might also suggest, as did the previous i n d i c a t o r , that there w i l l be a greatly increased need f o r programs as Employment Opportunities f o r Women. Comparison of Rural-Urban Populations. The median estimate of the t o t a l population i n Vancouver C i t y by 1984-was 500,000 (4-50,000 i n 1971), and the median estimate of the t o t a l population of Rossland was 5,000 (2,800 i n 1971). The prime factor that was f e l t to influence t h i s i n d i c a t o r was the s h i f t to suburban or to r u r a l r e s i d e n t i a l l i v i n g with urban work (90%). I f t h i s trend continues, with a slower rate of growth f o r major urban populations and a f a s t e r rate f o r r u r a l or suburban areas, the implications f o r adult education are r e l a t i v e l y major. Community centres or even shopping centres may become the central focus f o r continuing education a c t i v i t i e s . 30 Douglas College plans two experimental "neighbourhood l e a r n -ing centres" i n the coming year to attempt to accommodate t h i s s h i f t i n population d i s t r i b u t i o n . Another implication of t h i s i n d i c a t o r i s the growing need to decentralize and thus de-emphasize structures per se, as centres of learning f o r adults. This could increase the pressure on e x i s t i n g public school f a c i l i t i e s to extend t h e i r use or could represent an increasing use of portable f a c i l i t i e s . Instructors i n public night schools. The median estimate of the number of public night school i n s t r u c t o r s by 1984 was 11,000. The primary factors f e l t to influence t h i s growth from 8,500 i n 1971 were: the r e s u l t of population increase generally (70%); the demand f o r courses beyond regular school hours w i l l increase, while the t r a d i t i o n a l nine to three approach f a l l s into disfavour (70%), An increase of 2,500 i n s t r u c t o r s i n the present public night school system indicates an assumption by the panel that adult education a c t i v i t i e s w i l l not only maintain t h e i r present importance but also w i l l continue a steady and con-sistent growth. This w i l l necessitate the co-ordination of adult education a c t i v i t i e s to avoid problems of duplication and overlap. Number of administrators i n adult education. The median estimate of the number of administrators by 1984 was 70, showing an increase from 1971 of 18. This estimate would indicate that by 1984, i t i s l i k e l y that every school d i s t r i c t 31 w i l l have one or more administrators whose sole function w i l l be to administer adult education services to the community. The prime factors f e l t to influence t h i s i n d i c a t o r were that adult education i s becoming more of a l i f e s t y l e i n t h i s province (75%), and the expansion of r e s p o n s i b i l i t y to include co-ordination of community schools (84-%), I f adult education a c t i v i t i e s are to be f u l l y recog-nized i n each school d i s t r i c t by the appointment of an administrator, there w i l l be a need f o r i n d i v i d u a l s trained i n the f i e l d of adult education. There w i l l also be a province-wide recognition through these projected appointments of the equality of importance of continuing education with K to 12 public school a c t i v i t i e s . Number of school d i s t r i c t s o f f e r i n g public night  school programs. The median estimate of the number of school d i s t r i c t s o f f e r i n g public night school programs by 1984 was 63, which i s consistent with the 1971 f i g u r e . In other words, no more school d i s t r i c t s w i l l o f f e r continuing education programs than do presently. The prime factor i n t h i s i n d i -cator was f e l t to be that community colleges w i l l i ncreasingly administer more of the adult education programs (72%). When compared with the projected increase i n the number of administrators t h i s may imply a decrease i n the number of school d i s t r i c t administrators or an increase i n the number of community college adult education administrators. 32 Enrolment i n post secondary non u n i v e r s i t y t e c h n i c a l or terminal career programs. The median estimate f o r the t o t a l enrolment i n these programs was 8,800. The prime factors f e l t to influence t h i s growth from 5,000 i n 1971 were that technological change w i l l demand more s p e c i f i c t r a i n i n g (100%), and community colleges w i l l continue t h e i r role i n o f f e r i n g preparation f o r advanced u n i v e r s i t y t r a i n -ing (72%). The main implication of t h i s i n d i c a t o r i s that there w i l l be an increased need fo r t r a i n i n g f a c i l i t i e s i n technical and vocational schools. Expansion of these types of f a c i l i t i e s w i l l thus necessitate a considerably higher allotment of funds fo r the specialized t r a i n i n g equipment fo r these programs and f o r the consistent upgrading i n texts and other materials that are current to the subject matter. The second prime factor l i s t e d here would tend to indicate the panel's foreseeing of the r o l e of the community college as more rel a t e d to u n i v e r s i t y preparation than career t r a i n i n g . I f t h i s trend were to develop, then c e r t a i n l y e x i s t i n g f a c i l i t i e s would be inadequate to accommodate the estimated enrolment increases. Part time u n i v e r s i t y transfer enrolment i n community  colleges. The median estimate of the number of students by 1984 was 3,650. The prime factors influencing the increase from 2,000 i n 1971 were f e l t to be that increased l e i s u r e w i l l allow adults to learn for i n t e r e s t rather than income 33 security (81%) and the creation of more colleges w i l l provide greater academic opportunities (100%), The implications of t h i s i ndicator would appear to be that i n t e r e s t i n academically oriented courses w i l l continue. This w i l l necessitate increased s t a f f and, as suggested by the panel, expanded f a c i l i t i e s . Night school enrolment technical/vocational schools. The median estimate f o r the t o t a l enrolment i n 1984 was 16,300 as compared with the 1971 enrolment of 14,000. The prime factors f e l t to influence t h i s i n d i c a t o r were: s p e c i a l i z -ation w i l l lead many to upgrade t h e i r employability (91%); job incentives w i l l encourage educational upgrading (92%); increased technology and increased number i n labour force (75%); as f a c i l i t i e s grow, p a r t i c u l a r l y i n smaller d i s t r i c t s , so w i l l enrolment (90%); more upgrading being done on-the-job on company time, both i n the public and private sectors of adult education (75%). This projected increase suggests that with the i n -creasing enrolment w i l l come an increasing necessity f o r co-operation between employers and t r a i n i n g i n s t i t u t i o n s . This may require s p e c i a l i z e d personnel to f u l f i l l t h i s l i a s o n , or i t may necessitate funding by industry, commercial or t e r t i a r y i n t e r e s t s of e x i s t i n g upgrading programs within continuing education f a c i l i t i e s . Another p o s s i b i l i t y might be an increased necessity f o r consultants s p e c i a l l y trained i n meeting the educational needs and problems of adults. 34 Universities' operating costs and c a p i t a l expend!tures. The median estimate f o r u n i v e r s i t i e s * operating costs and c a p i t a l expenditures i n 1984 was 180 m i l l i o n compared with 135 m i l l i o n i n 1971. The prime factors a f f e c t i n g t h i s i n d i -cator were f e l t to be: i n f l a t i o n and the increasing demand f o r the best of equipment (90%); l e s s emphasis on expansion and buildings and more emphasis on "recycling" of present f a c i l i t i e s (72%); community colleges receiving larger amounts of p r o v i n c i a l funding f o r post secondary education (72%). Although substantial, t h i s projected increased cost of 45 m i l l i o n i s not nearly as large as that during the period 1961 to 1971 which was from 60 to 135 m i l l i o n . This projected estimate would suggest that u n i v e r s i t i e s are not foreseen by the panel as greatly expanding within the decade. I t may be that expenditures f o r post secondary i n s t i t u t i o n s w i l l be "fanned out" over the colleges, and that more pressure w i l l be put upon the u n i v e r s i t i e s to make them-selves more community service oriented. As the closest means of establishing t h i s l i n k with the community i s the university's extension or continuing education u n i t , the next decade may see both considerable expansion of these departments and also the extension of part time degree granting f a c i l i t i e s i n order to meet changing community needs. F u l l time u n i v e r s i t y enrolment. The median estimate of f u l l time enrolment at u n i v e r s i t i e s by 1984 was 48,000 as compared with 37,500 i n 1971. The prime factors influencing t h i s i n d i c a t o r were seen as the need fo r u n i v e r s i t y p o l i c i e s to expand to include t o t a l coverage i n the province (83%), the loss of the u n i v e r s i t i e s * appeal to the young (75%), and an increasing demand f o r vocational, technical and career programs (87%). The projected increase i s not nearly as dramatic as that of the period from 1961 to 1971 when enrol-ments went from 23,000 to 37,000. The implication of t h i s projection would suggest that the u n i v e r s i t i e s w i l l require a pronounced s h i f t i n p o l i c y , perhaps to the extent (at l e a s t f o r f u l l time students) of l i m i t i n g f a c i l i t i e s to professional t r a i n i n g only. This could eventually r e s u l t i n the elimination of the generalized bachelor of arts degree. Unive r s i t y of B r i t i s h Columbia's Department of Adult  Education enrolment. The median estimate f o r enrolment i n the Department of Adult Education by 1984 was 275 students as compared with 130 i n 1971• The prime factor influencing the projected increase was that many more people w i l l enter the f i e l d as adult education gains recognition and the number of offerings increases (80%). There have c e r t a i n l y been indications i n previous indicators that there w i l l be an increased need f o r trained adult educators. Just as the f i e l d of public school education moved toward c e r t i f i c a t i o n , unionization and standardization through required t r a i n i n g periods, i t would appear that continuing education w i l l also change i n t h i s d i r e c t i o n . This would also imply the growing necessity f o r personnel to t r a i n the adult educators, PROBABILITY AND SEQUENCE OF EVENTS This portion of the study reports the data from Questionnaire Three i n two separate sections. The f i r s t section w i l l express the median for those f i f t e e n p o t e n t i a l events which the panel estimated: w i l l chronologically be the most l i k e l y to occur (the l i k e l i h o o d of occurrence reaches 50%) over the next s i x years; w i l l be l i k e l y to occur by 1984 as expressed i n percentages of 70% and over; and w i l l have a moderate to great e f f e c t on adult education. As well as t h i s information, those changes or causes of changes i n adult education r e s u l t i n g from the occurrence of the p o t e n t i a l events for which the panel reached a 70% agreement w i l l be presented, plus implications that appear to be j u s t i f i e d . The data w i l l be offered i n t h i s p a r t i c u l a r manner because i t enables the reader to trace the p o t e n t i a l events which may occur i n adult education i n the chronology or time frame i n which they might be anticipated to occur, and because there was a s i g n i f i c a n t c o r r e l a t i o n (fourteen out of f i f t e e n p o t e n t i a l events) between those events anticipated to occur i n the next s i x years with a high (70%) l i k e l i h o o d of occurrence by 1980. These two factors were considered of prime importance as the time frame f o r the study encompasses the years 1974 to 1984, thus the f i r s t f i f t e e n events presented here are i n chronological order f o r the period 1974 to 1980. Similar data are then presented f o r nine events that were predicted to occur between 1980 and 1984. 1974 . 1980 Vocational t r a i n i n g w i l l be provided at no cost to  a l l those who are unemployed but employable. The median estimate when l i k e l i h o o d of occurrence reached 50% was 1980, and the l i k e l i h o o d of occurrence by 1984 was estimated at 75%. The median estimated e f f e c t on adult education was considered to be great while the agreed changes i n adult education that may occur were more r e - t r a i n i n g of women (88%), and industry w i l l become more automated so that t r a i n i n g w i l l be e s s e n t i a l to keep pace (94%). The cause of t h i s projected change was agreed to be increased technology and a shorter work week (80%). The implications of t h i s p o t e n t i a l event are a greater need f o r co-operation between f e d e r a l l y supported t r a i n i n g programs such as Canada Manpower's Basic Training f o r S k i l l Development, and e x i s t i n g f a c i l i t i e s to provide them. Both colleges and night schools are already becoming involved with t h i s f ederal economic help, but i f t h i s projected event were to take place, a considerably larger section of the population w i l l need to be accommodated. Vancouver Vocational I n s t i t u t e , f o r example, has waiting l i s t s and a limited number of seats available f o r Manpower students. F a c i l i t i e s w i l l need to operate f u l l y on perhaps a twenty-four hour per day 38 schedule i n order to f u l f i l l t h i s projection. More i s o l a t e d parts of the province w i l l require either expanded l o c a l f a c i l i t i e s , or accommodation near e x i s t i n g f a c i l i t i e s w i l l need to be provided. This p o t e n t i a l event would also have an influence on the expansion of day care and drop i n centres i n order to provide f o r children of single parents. A further implication of t h i s event would be a stringent and practicable scheme f o r assessing employment needs within the province and a channelling or d i r e c t i n g of prospective employees into t r a i n i n g i n these areas. P a r t i c u l a r attention would be required to f u l f i l l manpower needs i n northern areas, distant from urban centres. Increased^cost of l i v i n g w i l l r e s u l t i n 50% of families  being supported by two incomes. The median estimate when li k e l i h o o d of occurrence reached 50% was 1980, and the l i k e l i -hood of occurrence by 1984 was estimated at 80%. The median estimated e f f e c t on adult education was considered to be moderate while the agreed changes that might occur were: more t r a i n i n g programs w i l l be required f o r wives going to work (9^-%); more pre-schools w i l l be needed (81%); and a great need f o r upgrading and r e - t r a i n i n g women with families (71%). The causes of t h i s change were agreed to be the r e s u l t of an improved status of women i n society (81%), a desire for maintaining a standard of l i v i n g (76%), and a desire of wives to return to work (71%)• The implications of t h i s p o t e n t i a l event would appear 39 to be again related to day care, family service training centres (particularly for men), and a total revision of curriculum i n the K to 12 education span more oriented to active working roles for women i n order to ensure family solidarity i f this event occurs. A portion of the curriculum for a l l children from K  to 12 w i l l be devoted spfici f i r . q l l v to lifelong learning. The median estimate when likelihood of occurrence reached 50% was 1980 , and the likelihood of occurrence by 1984- was e s t i -mated at 75%. The median estimated effect on adult education was considered to be moderate, while the agreed changes that may occur were: extensive upgrading on a part time basis ( 72%) ; need for academic adult education courses when interest i n -creases i n the older years (78%); more people w i l l return for continuous learning act i v i t i e s ( 83% ) . The causes of this change were agreed to be changing values and leisure time activities ( 88%) . If K to 12 students are directed throughout their public school education to consider that their education w i l l be a continuing process and an int r i n s i c part of their lives, the obvious result w i l l be that continuing education becomes an integral part of the entire educational process. Provincially operated child care centres (under 6 )  and drop in centres ( 6 to 12+) w i l l be provided locally. The median estimate when likelihood of occurrence reached 50% i s 1980, and the likelihood of occurrence by 1984- was 80%. 40 The median estimated e f f e c t on adult education was moderate and the agreed changes i n adult education that may occur were: t h i s event w i l l free women to work, thereby increasing the p o t e n t i a l f o r t h e i r t r a i n i n g (73%); more daytime adult education offerings (88%); and ind i v i d u a l s w i l l be able to pursue part and/or f u l l time t r a i n i n g (94%). The cause of th i s change was agreed to be an increase i n the labor force and pre-requisite t r a i n i n g (77%)« The implications of t h i s p o t e n t i a l event would a f f e c t both the working and le i s u r e pursuits of women. In order to maintain a stable s o c i a l order i n the face of change, the implications f o r women to combine t h e i r role as homemaker with stimulating but not necessarily employment-oriented continuing education programs, e s p e c i a l l y during the day, might be extensive. Day care centres with s u f f i c i e n t f a c i l i t i e s fo r casual as well as f u l l time day care would permit those women who chose homemaking as a career to have an additional opportunity to enrich t h e i r l i v e s through continuing education during the e a r l i e r stages of c h i l d rearing without s a c r i f i c i n g t h e i r entire daytime r o l e as mother. Arrangements f o r part time day care would perhaps be contingent upon proof of enrol-ment i n educational rather than purely s o c i a l a c t i v i t i e s . Another implication might be the increased p o s s i b i l i t y for single parents to have more r e l i a b l e and controlled care for t h e i r children and t h i s i n turn might ease the burden of possible delinquency among those children of working parents who are presently unsupervised. 41 A l l organized communities w i l l provide free neighbour- hood counselling services and programs for a l l adults who desire  them to upgrade their education. The median estimate when likelihood of occurrence reaches 50% was 1980, and the l i k e l i -hood of occurrence by 1984 was estimated at 95%. The median estimated effect on adult education was considered to be moderate while the agreed changes i n adult education that might; occur were: administrators, counsellors, and teachers would be needed i n greater numbers (88%); increased interest and participation in adult education programs (77%), more adminis-trative assistants needed (75%)• The implication of this potential event would be the increased accessibility of institutions to the general public. As many adults may be vaguely aware of educational opportunities but unsure of or lacking the time for more extensive enquiries, such a service, particularly i n the evening hours, would provide a far more embrasive and accessible overview of upgrading opportunities. Such neighbourhood services would need to be co-sponsored either by a l l potential institutions or by the provincial government thus eliminating the inherent possibility of nepotism rather than client service. As previously mentioned, Douglas College i s contemplating two such pi l o t centres which would be an extension of the present BTSD storefront operations. 42 50% of schools (elementary and secondary) w i l l  encourage community p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n both formal and informal  programs a f t e r school, i n evenings, and on weekends. The median estimate when l i k e l i h o o d of occurrence reaches 50% was 1980, and the l i k e l i h o o d of occurrence by 1984 was e s t i -mated at 70%. The median estimated e f f e c t on adult education was considered to be moderate while the agreed changes i n adult education that may occur were that there w i l l be more administrative tasks f o r adult education personnel (88%); and p a r t i c i p a t i o n from schools i n the active encouragement of adult education would create new i n t e r e s t and approval which would increase actual enrolment numbers greatly (70%); and adult education might be required to get more involved and a s s i s t i n the co-ordination of community schools (70%). A f u l l time night school d i r e c t o r i n each school  d i s t r i c t o f f e r i n g adult education courses w i l l be appointed. The median estimate when l i k e l i h o o d of occurrence reached 50% was 1982, and the l i k e l i h o o d of occurrence by 1984 was estimated at 90%. The median estimated e f f e c t on adult edu-cation was considered to be great while the agreed changes i n adult education that may occur were: t h i s w i l l only happen i n d i s t r i c t s with large or growing populations and would r e s u l t i n an increase i n administrative work (71%); a much more v i t a l , p r o v i n c i a l program would develop (77%); and there w i l l be more people involved with adult education (82%). The cause of t h i s change was agreed to be the extension of 43 the school day and a broadening of the age groups served (82%), The implications brought out by the panel f o r t h i s p o t e n t i a l event would appear to be quite f a r reaching i n terms of acceptance of and incentive toward a continuing and growing adult education movement. The panel's b e l i e f i n a more v i t a l p r o v i n c i a l program i s of c r u c i a l importance. As there appears always to be a d i r e c t and d i s t i n c t c o r r e l a t i o n between the number of administrative personnel hired and the extension and broadening of services, the h i r i n g of at l e a s t one f u l l time d i r e c t o r of adult education must surely lead to the p o s s i b i l i t y of trained adult education personnel acting as l i a i s a i s between a l l public schools and a f u l l time d i r e c t o r would thus work with and through f i e l d personnel between d i s t r i c t s and thus eventually through the p r o v i n c i a l government as suggested. This implies that the co-ordination and recognition of adult education i s not only practicable but also an e s s e n t i a l service within every d i s t r i c t . Because public schools ( p a r t i c u l a r l y a f t e r school hours) are monitored and directed very greatly by union members (CUPE), the implications of t h i s p o t e n t i a l event with i t s ramifications would necessitate a f u l l agreement on work-ing conditions with union members. This p a r t i c u l a r agreement might be reached through the aforementioned l i a i s o n personnel working with the education representative of CUPE, and the i n d i v i d u a l school boards. Certainly a more practicable solution would be f o r t h i s point to be worked out on a p r o v i n c i a l basis. 44 Co-ordination of adult education services at the regional and l o c a l l e v e l w i l l be i n s t i t u t e d under the auspices  of the Department of Education. The median estimate when l i k e l i h o o d of occurrence reached 50% was 1 9 7 8 , and the l i k e l i -hood of occurrence by 1 9 8 4 was estimated at 75% • The median estimated e f f e c t on adult education was considered to be great while the agreed changes i n adult education that may occur were: t h i s w i l l r e s u l t i n d i r e c t i o n , funding and development f o r the whole adult education movement ( 7 6 % ) ; new i n t e r e s t i n adult education from the Department of Edu-cation w i l l create more f i n a n c i a l support which i n turn w i l l create better courses, trained i n s t r u c t o r s , and increased enrolment ( 8 3 % ) ; such co-ordination would provide information and assistance i n programming and avoid overlap ( 8 2 % ) . Because t h i s p o t e n t i a l event, plus the next two bear d i r e c t l y on s i m i l a r issues, they are dealt with as a unit i n a subsequent chapter. A co-ordinator of adult education services w i l l be  appointed p r o v i n c i a l l y through the Department of Education. The median estimate when l i k e l i h o o d of occurrence reaches 50% was 1977, and the l i k e l i h o o d of occurrence by 1 9 8 4 was estimated at 90%. The median estimated e f f e c t on adult education was considered to be great while the agreed changes i n adult education that may occur were: long needed d i r e c t i o n from one authority ( 7 0 % ) ; improved status of adult education ( 8 3 % ) ; creation of channels which have not been available to administrators up to t h i s point (78%); p r o v i s i o n of inform-ation, a s s i s t i n programs and avoid overlap (78%). 50% of operating costs of night school programs w i l l  be provided through p r o v i n c i a l funds. The median estimate when l i k e l i h o o d of occurrence reaches 50% was 1980, and the l i k e l i h o o d of occurrence by 1984 was estimated at 90%. The median estimated e f f e c t on adult education was considered to be great while the agreed changes i n adult education that may occur were: a great increase i n the number of courses offered as enrolment numbers would not be the prime factors i n present-ing these courses (83%); easier to o f f e r courses a t t r a c t i n g few students, therefore more varied programs (88%); f i n a n c i a l s t a b i l i t y would ease some pressure (88%); would provide opportunities to those who could not p a r t i c i p a t e previously because they l i v e i n sparsely populated areas (9*%); more varied and better programming within the f i n a n c i a l range of more people (88%). Community colleges w i l l absorb 25% of present public  school adult education administrators. The median estimate when l i k e l i h o o d of occurrence reached 50% was 1980, and the l i k e l i h o o d of occurrence by 1984 was estimated at 85%. The median estimated e f f e c t on adult education was considered to be moderate while the change i n adult education that may occur was that l o c a l administrators would s t i l l be serving d i s t r i c t s f o r l o c a l communication but would be working as part of a college s t a f f resident outside the campus (72%). 46 The implications of t h i s p o t e n t i a l event would be a closer l i a i s o n between colleges and present public school continuing education services. Again, as de-centralization appears to be a major trend and t r a v e l l i n g personnel rather than duplicated campuses are preferred, i t could be that such an absorption would be, as the panel suggested, on a l i a i s o n rather than employment ba s i s . Community colleges w i l l have "branches" i n every com- munity i n B r i t i s h Columbia with a population of 10,000 or more. The median estimate when l i k e l i h o o d of occurrence reaches 50% was 1980, and the l i k e l i h o o d of occurrence by 1984 was e s t i -mated at 75% • The median estimated e f f e c t on adult education was considered to be moderate while the change i n adult education that may occur was an expansion i n adult education services (78%). The implications of community college services within such a population range c e r t a i n l y suggests a much broader opportunity f o r post secondary services within such communities thus making at lea s t two years of u n i v e r s i t y transfer courses available over a larger geographic area than i s presently av a i l a b l e . The c i r c u l a r problem of t r a i n i n g f a c i l i t i e s , trained personnel and s u f f i c i e n t l y developed community services to at t r a c t such a population s h i f t has been a socio-economic problem basic to the development of B r i t i s h Columbia's p o t e n t i a l as a whole. Higher wages and fringe benefit incentives have been the only means of a t t r a c t i n g those i n a younger age group to leave the Lower Mainland. A good case i n point i s the over-loading of f a c i l i t i e s to provide, f o r example, E a r l y C h i l d -hood Education and P r a c t i c a l Nursing t r a i n i n g i n the Lower Mainland, and the i m p o s s i b i l i t y of even a t t r a c t i n g s u f f i c i e n t numbers of parti c i p a n t s to make these programs economically fe a s i b l e i n outlying areas. Therefore, the occurrence of t h i s p o t e n t i a l event (perhaps with t r a v e l grants and boarding f a c i l i t i e s ) might a t t r a c t students to less crowded f a c i l i t i e s , and, a f t e r course completion, remain i n the community to contribute to i t s growth and development. A l l u n i v e r s i t i e s , colleges, school d i s t r i c t adult  education and recreation commissions w i l l co-ordinate t h e i r  a c t i v i t i e s to avoid overlap of services. The median estimate when l i k e l i h o o d of occurrence reached 50% was 1980, and the l i k e l i h o o d of occurrence by 1984- was estimated at 78%« The median estimated e f f e c t on adult education was considered to be moderate while the changes i n adult education that may occur were better community service (72%) and more e f f i c i e n t use of resources within the community (70%). A l l adult education a c t i v i t i e s w i l l be a shared  r e s p o n s i b i l i t y between public night school and community  colleges. The median estimate when l i k e l i h o o d of occurrence reached 50% was 1980, and the l i k e l i h o o d of occurrence by 1984- was estimated at 80%. The median estimated e f f e c t on adult education was considered to be moderate, while the changes i n adult education that may occur were an increase i n the exchange of ideas (71%), and school boards w i l l supply f a c i l i t i e s while colleges w i l l co-ordinate adult education (70%). U n i v e r s i t i e s w i l l extend degree programs throughout  the province through a combination of correspondence and  t r a v e l l i n g professors who w i l l hold weekend seminars i n le s s  populated areas of B r i t i s h Columbia. The median estimate when l i k e l i h o o d of occurrence reached 50% was 1980, and the l i k e l i h o o d of occurrence by 1984- was estimated at 75%« Tbe median estimated e f f e c t on adult education was considered to be moderate while the changes i n adult education were that more u n i v e r s i t i e s would develop t h e i r extension d i v i s i o n s (83%) and the timetabling of courses w i l l be planned i n con-junction with l o c a l needs, not necessarily just f o r weekends (78%). The implications of t h i s p o t e n t i a l event might be eithe r an extension of undergraduate and postgraduate degrees on a part time basis through u n i v e r s i t i e s or a possible expansion of the community colleges to a four year under-graduate degree program, leaving postgraduate degrees to the u n i v e r s i t i e s . A much broader implication would be an extension to the u n i v e r s i t y of the present trend toward de-c e n t r a l i z a t i o n d i s t i n c t l y noticeable at the community college l e v e l . 1980 - 1984 Most employers w i l l f i n d value i n adult education as  a management t o o l . The median estimate when l i k e l i h o o d of occurrence reaches 50% i s 1984, and the l i k e l i h o o d of occur-rence by 1984 i s 60%. The median estimated e f f e c t on adult education was considered to be moderate while the agreed changes i n adult education that may occur were: more demand for adult education courses (88%); employers w i l l arrange f o r s p e c i f i c courses f o r t h e i r s t a f f s through night schools wherever possible (82%); employers w i l l encourage s t a f f p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n e x i s t i n g adult education programs (71%), and l o c a l l y developed programs w i l l be demanded putting the onus on the d i s t r i c t s to provide them (70%). The implications of t h i s p o t e n t i a l event appear to rest almost e n t i r e l y i n the value and t r u s t placed by the company i t s e l f i n the e f f i c i e n c y of adult education programs provided outside the company as many companies o f f e r on-the-job t r a i n i n g and upgrading programs themselves. The chief problems with much smaller and less s o p h i s t i -cated companies o f f e r i n g t h e i r own continuing education programs, i s that while t h e i r t r a i n e r s know t h e i r jobs, they have not necessarily the s k i l l s r e q u i s i t e f o r teaching the trainees. The implications of t h i s problem might be the movement of adult education into the f i e l d of t r a i n i n g the trai n e r s i n the problems s p e c i f i c to the teaching of adults, p a r t i c u l a r l y older ones. 50 There w i l l be a 30% increase i n enrolment i n the 50  to 44 years age group i n public school adult education programs  beyond the normal increase t i e d to population. The median estimate when l i k e l i h o o d of occurrence reached 50% was 1984, and the l i k e l i h o o d of occurrence by 1984 was 50%. The median estimated e f f e c t on adult education was considered to be great while the agreed changes i n adult education that may occur were: more v a r i e t y i n courses w i l l be required (100%); need f o r continuous rather than once i n a l i f e t i m e t r a i n i n g w i l l increase enrolment i n many d i f f e r e n t types of adult education programs (94%); greater demand f o r recreational as well as upgrading programs (75%). That there are implications for t h i s greater projected demand for programs i n t h i s p a r t i c u l a r age group are increas-i n g l y v e r i f i e d by changing s o c i a l conditions i n North America. There i s not only a renewed s o c i o l o g i c a l i n t e r e s t i n t h i s age group but also an accelerated research i n the developmental tasks of in d i v i d u a l s throughout t h e i r l i v e s . A recent t e l e v i s i o n documentary "The Middle Years" points out that i n t h i s age bracket there are alternating periods of c r i s i s and consolidation. I f increased enrolment i s to be expected, perhaps the nature of courses should be broadened to include not only courses that o f f e r p a l l i a t i v e s f o r increased l e i s u r e time but also programs of a psychological and s o c i o l o g i c a l nature to aid t h i s group i n recognizing and coping with i t s own development. 51 Community schools w i l l develop under the administration  of the public school system with adult education personnel. The median estimate when likelihood of occurrence reached 50% was 1984, and the likelihood of occurrence by 1984 was 60%. The median estimated effect on adult education was con-sidered to be moderate, while the agreed changes i n adult education were considered to be an onus on the d i s t r i c t to co-ordinate this type of learning (°A%), greater community involvement with schools and programs (77%), and changes i n the scope and horizon of adult education (82%). The implications of this event may have less to do with who actually administers the community schools than how sound or successful i s the concept i t s e l f . I f communities served by community schools are defined as the elementary school d i s t r i c t population, then that area has either to be taught or encouraged to consider i t s e l f as a microcosm within the large community, township, or municipality i n which i t exists. The trend i n North America in general, and Canada i n particular has not been toward a communal, co-operative type of existence upon which thesis the community school i s based. In the Peoples' Republic of China the concept of communal livi n g i s intrinsic to the culture - one trades or shares his knowledge freely and i n an organized fashion with his neigh-bours. The Canadian concept of free enterprise, however, tends to negate the concept basic to the practicability of the f u l l implementation of the community school. The implication of this potential event would therefore appear to be in the training of the people within the designated area of not only the positive p o s s i b i l i t i e s inherent in the community school but also the necessity for their offering services to their neighbours on a voluntary basis. The community school concept may thus need to be preceded by community education. In-service adult education teaching techniques w i l l  be provided for a l l educators i n community colleges who teach  adults. The median estimate when likelihood of occurrence reaches 50% i s 1984, and the likelihood of occurrence by 1984 i s 60%, The median estimated effect on adult education was considered to be moderate, while the agreed changes in adult education that may occur were an extension of training to a l l adult education public schools courses as well (81%), and an improved quality of course content and presentation, no doubt increasing public interest i n adult education effectiveness (75%). The implications for this potential event have ramifications outside colleges i n public night schools and possibly even universities. Certification has been mandatory for a number of years for instructors i n K to 12, therefore why the two thirds of the number taught i n the K to 12 bracket who are participants i n public night schools alone should be taught by untrained personnel i s certainly a question for consideration. The implication may be that a l l instructors 53 of adults within the jurisdiction of the Department of Education be required to attend workshops and seminars i n adult education teaching techniques or that, as pointed out by a smaller percentage of the panel, the specialty of teaching adults be emphasized as a regular part of teacher training for the teaching certificate i n the province (52%). Specific on the job programs w i l l be developed.to  alleviate boredom i n tedious or repetitious industrial or  factory jobs. The median estimate when likelihood of occurrence reached 50% was 1984, and the likelihood of occurrence by 1984 was 55%. The median estimated effect on adult education was considered to be moderate while the agreed change i n adult education that may occur was an involvement i n assisting with and co-ordinating such programs (75%). Community colleges and industry w i l l share personnel  in order that colleges can provide job training f a c i l i t i e s  and programs suitable for changing employment needs i n industry. The median estimate when likelihood of occurrence reaches 50% was 1984, and the likelihood of occurrence by 1984 i s 50%. The median estimated effect on adult education i s considered to be moderate while the agreed change i n adult education that might occur was that there w i l l be an increased use of paraprofessionals (82%). The pos s i b i l i t i e s inherent in the introduction of the use of paraprofessionals by the panel offers an interesting consideration. Paraprofessionals may become an essential "halfway" group used not only to free f u l l y qualified profes-sionals for more specialized tasks, but also to provide basic, services not requiring the more extensive professional training. The trend appears toward the position of aide, and the implications involved with the concept of para-professions as aides in the fields of law, medicine and education have far reaching possibilities i n terms of adult education. Co-operation between professional groups, adult educators, licencing authorities and the development of requisite paraprofessional training centres would appear to be the responsibility of adult education within a larger supervisory framework as, for example, the provincial govern-ment. A l l employees who need re-training to carry on their  .jobs w i l l be paid by their employers at the same wage level  during their re-training period. The median estimate when likelihood of occurrence reached 50% was 1984, and the l i k e -lihood of occurrence by 1984 was 60%. The median estimated effect on adult education was considered to be moderate, while the agreed changes in adult education that may occur were that technology w i l l be accepted and unions must recognize, co-operate and encourage re-training (75%)» and the creation of a need for additional training programs i n a l l areas (94%). 55 University or college instructors w i l l travel according  to the educational needs of communities rather than students. The median estimate when likelihood of occurrence reached 50% i s 1984, and the likelihood of occurrence by 1984 was 60%, The median estimated effect on adult education was considered to be moderate while the agreed changes i n adult education that may occur were extensive growth of extension departments of colleges and universities (94%), and the possibility for many people to attend and graduate from universities, which has not been possible for them to do i n the past (88%). The "open" university concept w i l l be implemented i n  order to reach more students at less cost. The median estimate when likelihood of occurrence reached 50% was 1980, and the likelihood of occurrence by 1984 was 50%, The median estimated effect on adult education was considered to be moderate, while the change i n adult education that might be expected would be a new source of students. Fraser Valley's next college w i l l probably start with this concept (75%); potentially added load to out of the way d i s t r i c t s (75%)• The implications of this potential event bear upon the portability or transferability of a concept or innovation from one country to another, or within Canada from one province to another. The open university i n Britain depends heavily on the publicly owned and financed BBC, With the exception of the varieties of Cable Ten i n the Lower Mainland areas, the CRTC has thus far refused f u l l scale licencing even to 56 the provincial government of this particular band. The CBC which in no way corresponds to the BBC, has no equivalent to the closest equivalent to the BBC i n North America, NET or the PBS system i n the United States, Without co-operation and financing from the provincial government as well as the federal government for the establishment of one broadcasting channel, either radio or television, i t i s unlikely that this concept w i l l be implemented. Chapter 5 GOALS FOR ADULT EDUCATION IN BRITISH COLUMBIA Olaf Helmer, one of the creators of the Delphi method has said: "We must cease to be the onlookers at the spectaole of world history and must instead influence history with the intention of shaping the future." (3:16) It i s the purpose of this chapter to present the total implications of this study by using data about the future of adult education, from a panel composed of those knowledgeable i n the f i e l d of adult education, to encourage a l l those presently involved i n adult education, to u t i l i z e this information i n helping to shape the future of adult education over the next ten years i n British Columbia. SUMMARY The principal findings of the study are summarized in Tables 1 and 2 on the following pages. The projected s t a t i s t i c a l indicators for the population and educational enrolments are displayed i n Table 1, while Table 2 shows a chronology of expected events by projected year and likelihood of occurrence by 1984. 57 58 Table 1 Projected S t a t i s t i c a l Indicators for 1 9 8 4 1 . 1,250,000 persons i n labour force (905,000 i n 1 9 7 1 ) . 2. Totals of age groups: a) 1 0 to 1 9 - 500,000 (425,000 i n 1 9 7 1 ) b) 2 0 to 24 - 325,000 (200,000 i n 1 9 7 D c) 3 5 to 44 - 395,000 (252,000 i n 1 9 7 1 ) 3. Number of women as a percentage of total labour force as 56% (36% i n 1 9 7 D 4. Total populations i n urban Vancouver and Rossland. a) Vancouver - 500,000 (450,000 i n 1 9 7 1 ) b) Rossland - 5,000 (2,800 in 1 9 7 1 ) 5. 11,000 public night school instructors ( 8 , 5 0 0 i n 1 9 7 1 ) 6. 7 0 public night school administrators i n adult education ( 5 2 i n 1 9 7 1 ) 7 . 63 school d i s t r i c t s offering night school •programs (63 i n 1 9 7 1 ) 8. 8,800 enrolled i n post secondary/non university technical or terminal career programs (5,000 i n 1 9 7 1 ) 9 . 3,650 part time University Transfer students enrolled i n community colleges (2,000 i n 1 9 7 1 ) 1 0 . 16,300 night school students enrolled i n technical/ vocational schools (14,000 i n 1 9 7 1 ) 11. 180 million dollars for a l l British Columbia universities operating and capital expenditures ( 1 3 5 million dollars in 1 9 7 D 1 2 . 48,000 f u l l time students enrolled at university ( 3 7 , 5 0 0 i n 1 9 7 D 1 3 . 2 7 5 students enrolled i n University of British Columbia's Department of Adult Education ( 1 3 0 i n 1 9 7 1 ) 59 Table 2 Chronology of Potential Events Potential Event Projected Likelihood Year of Occurrence by 1984 (in %) 1. A co-ordinator of adult education services w i l l be appointed prov-i n c i a l l y through the Department of Education. 1977 90% 2. Co-ordination of adult education services at the regional and local level w i l l be instituted under the auspices of the Depart-ment of Education. 1978 75 3. A l l organized communities w i l l provide free neighbourhood coun-selling service and program planning for a l l adults who desire them regarding upgrading their education. 1980 95 4. Provincially operated day care centres (under 6) and drop i n centres (6 to 12+) w i l l be pro-vided locally. 1980 95 5. 50% of operating costs of night school programs w i l l be provided through provincial funds. 1980 90 6. A f u l l time night school director (public night school) i n a l l school d i s t r i c t s offering night school courses w i l l be appointed. 1980 90 7. Community colleges w i l l absorb 25% Of present public school adult education administrators. 1980 85 8. A portion of the curriculum for a l l children from K to 12 w i l l be devoted specifically to l i f e long learning as opposed to end-goal oriented education. 1980 80 Table 2 (continued) 60 Potential Event Projected Likelihood Year of Occurrence by 1984-(in %) 9. A l l adult education activities w i l l be a shared responsibility between public night schools and community colleges. 1980 80% 10. Increased cost of livin g w i l l result i n 50% of families being supported by two incomes (hus-band and wife's). 1980 80 11. A l l universities, colleges, school d i s t r i c t adult education and recreation commissions w i l l co-ordinate their activities to avoid overlap of services. 1980 78 12. Vocational training w i l l be pro-vided at no cost to a l l those who are unemployed but employable. 1980 75 15. Community colleges w i l l have "branches" i n every community i n B.C. with a population of 10,000+. 1980 75 14. Universities w i l l extend post graduate (university graduation) education through the province through a combination of: cor-respondence and travelling professors who w i l l hold weekly weekend seminars in less popu-lated areas of B.C. 1980 75 15. 50% of schools (elem. and sec.) w i l l encourage community part-icipation i n both formal and informal programs after school, in evenings and on weekends. 1980 70 16. The "open" university concept w i l l be implemented in order to reach more non resident students at less cost. 1980 50 Table 2 (continued) 61 Potential Event Projected Likelihood Year of Occurrence by 1984 (in %) 17* Community schools w i l l develop under the administration of the public school system with adult education personnel, 1984 60% 18. In-service adult education teaching techniques w i l l be provided for a l l educators i n community colleges teaching adults. 1984 60 19. A l l employers who need re-training to carry on the jobs w i l l be paid by their employers at the same wage level during the re-training period. 1984 60 20. Universities (or colleges) instructors w i l l travel (based on educational needs of i n d i -vidual communities) rather than students. 1984 60 21. Most employers w i l l find value i n adult education as a manage-ment tool. 1984 60 22. Specific on the job programs w i l l be developed to alleviate bore-dom i n tedious or repetitious i n -dustry or factory jobs. 1984 55 23. Community colleges and industry w i l l share personnel i n order that colleges can provide job training f a c i l i t i e s and programs suitable for changing employment needs i n industry. 1984 50 24. There w i l l be a 30% increase i n enrolment i n the 30 to 44 year age group i n adult education public night school programs (be-yond the increase tied to 1984 50 population). SPECIFIC TRENDS 62 The responses of the panelists indicated seven basic clusters of trends that occurred repeatedly throughout the study. I. Technical and vocational concerns. The panel has clearly indicated that those matters which relate to technical and vocational issues are of top priority. The panel sees the primary need as that of expan-sion of available training f a c i l i t i e s to meet projected larger enrolments i n both day and night technical and voca-tional programs. One hundred percent agreement was reached that the prime factor influencing increased enrolments was that technological change w i l l demand more specific training. Eighty-eight percent agreement was reached that industry w i l l become more automated, therefore training w i l l be essential to keep pace. Ninety-one percent agreement was reached that specialization w i l l lead many to upgrade for employability. Ninety percent of the panel also agreed that as f a c i l i t i e s grow (particularly i n smaller districts) so w i l l enrolment, while an eighty-seven percent agreement was reached that demand would increase for vocational, technical, and career programs. A seventy-two percent agreement was also reached on the necessity for upgrading on a part-time basis. A secondary issue projected by the panel under this heading was the co-operation necessary between industry, unions and training f a c i l i t i e s . Ninety-two percent agreement 63 was reached on the prime factor that job incentives w i l l encourage educational upgrading, while eighty-eight percent agreement was reached that there w i l l be more demand for adult education classes as most employers w i l l find value i n continu-ing education as a management tool. Eighty-two percent of the panel agreed that employers w i l l arrange for specific courses for their staffs, to be offered by night schools where-ever possible. With regard to re-training while continuing to be employed, the panel reached a ninety-four percent agreement that this on-the-job re-training w i l l create a need for additional training programs i n a l l areas. Seventy-five percent agreement was reached that technology should be accepted and that unions must recognize, co-operate i n and encourage re-training. Seventy-five percent agreement was also reached on the necessity for more upgrading on-the-job on company time, both i n the public and private sectors of adult education. II. Co-ordination of adult education services. This was considered to be the second most important area for v the future of adult education and also one of the earliest possible potential events to occur with a projected date of 1977 for the co-ordination of adult education services at the regional and local level instituted under the auspices of the Department of Education, and the median estimated effect on adult education was considered to be great. 64 Seventy percent agreed that this potential event would result i n long needed direction from one authority, seventy-eight percent agreed that this would create channels which had not been available to administrators up to this point, and seventy-eight percent also agreed this would provide information, assist i n programs and avoid overlap. Seventy-six percent agreement was reached that this appointment would result i n direction, funding and development to the whole adult education movement. Eighty-three percent agreement was reached that this would also create, through more financial support, better courses, trained instructors and increased enrolments. Through the co-ordination of adult education a c t i v i -ties by universities, colleges, school boards and recreation commissions, the panel reached seventy-two percent agreement that this potential event would mean better community service, and seventy percent agreement that this would result i n more efficient use of community resources. That a conflict about who i s to administer what part-icular services should the projected co-ordination not occur was evident in the panel's consideration of other projected potential events. The panel considered, for example, that with a pro-jected increase i n the number of administrators, the expansion of responsibility from adult education would include co-ordination of community schools. At the same time the panel f e l t that with the number of school d i s t r i c t s offering adult 65 education programs remaining stable, community colleges would increasingly administer more of the adult education programs. Should, as projected, f i f t y percent of schools encourage community participation in both formal and informal programs beyond traditional school hours, the panel reached seventy percent agreement that adult educators might be required to get more involved i n and assist with the co-ordination. Another projected event, that a l l adult education activities would be a shared responsibility between public night schools and community colleges, caused the panel to reach a seventy percent agreement that school boards would supply f a c i l i t i e s while colleges would co-ordinate adult education. I f , as projected, community schools develop under the administration of the public school system with adult education personnel, then the panel reached ninety-four percent agreement that the onus would be on the d i s t r i c t to co-ordinate this type of continuing education. III. The changing status of adult education. As might be expected i n a study relating to the future of adult education over the next decade, there appeared a constant and pervasive belief i n and acknowledgement of not only the acceptance of adult education as an in t r i n s i c part of the educational system i n British Columbia, but also the growing need for trained adult education personnel, both teachers and administrators. 66 An anticipated need for 2,500 additional night school instructors by 1984 cited by the panel plus the projected increase of adult education administrators were only two instances, while the potential event of free neighbourhood counselling services led to an eighty-eight percent agreement that administrators, counsellors and teachers would be needed in greater numbers. In addition, a seventy-five percent con-sensus was reached that more administrative assistants would be needed. Included with the potential event of the appointment of a f u l l time night school director i n each school d i s t r i c t was an eighty-two percent agreement that there would be more people involved with adult education, and implicit i n the projected increase i n the 35-44 age group of 143,000 was an increased number of adults who might be participants. The panel also reached eighty-one percent consensus on the concept that increased leisure time would allow adults to learn for interest rather than income security, with a panel consensus of seventy-eight percent that there would be a need for more academic adult education courses when interest increases among older groups. Another high con-sensus of eighty-three percent i n connection with the potential event of a portion of curriculum from K to 12 being devoted to lifelong learning was that more people w i l l return to school for continuous learning activities; and there was a seventy-seven percent agreement on increased interest and participation in adult education i f free counselling services were readily 67 available. There was a seventy percent panel agreement that i f schools expanded their availability, this would constitute an active encouragement of adult education and would not only create new interest and approval but would also increase actual enrolments greatly. Although not i n total agreement, nor referring to i t as a high priority item, the need for personnel trained i n the techniques of teaching adults was mentioned several times. The panel's estimated increase i n enrolment i n The University of British Columbia's Department of Adult Education was one example for which the panel reached eighty percent consensus that many more would enter the f i e l d as adult education gained recognition and the number of course offerings increased. The need for trained personnel was mentioned earlier and received eighty-three percent agreement, while the potential event that in-service training about teaching techniques would be provided for community college instructors provoked an eighty-one percent panel agreement that this was the ideal for adult education public school instructors as well. The predicted event, with seventy-five percent panel consensus would improve the quality of course content and presentation, no doubt increasing public interest i n adult education effectiveness. 68 IV. De-centralization and the trend i n the projected  roles of the university and community colleges. Because the panel reached ninety percent agreement that shifts in the distribution of population would result i n suburban or rural-residential l i v i n g with urban work, de-centralization of institutions for higher education and continuing education was a logical implication. As a result of the potential de-centralization, the panel saw universities and colleges as assuming more diverse roles i n the future. A seventy-two percent agreement was reached on the trend that there would be less emphasis on expansion and buildings at universities, and more emphasis on "recycling" of present f a c i l i t i e s . The panel also reached a seventy-five percent agreement that the universities have lost their appeal to the young, and achieved eighty-three percent consensus about the need for universities to expand to include total coverage of the province. There was an eighty-three percent agreement that as a result of universities expanding post graduate education throughout the province, they would develop their extension divisions. The potential event that university or college instructors rather than students would travel also resulted i n a ninety-four percent panel agreement on extensive growth of the extension or con-tinuing studies departments. The projection for community colleges was foreseen by the panel as that of having branches i n every community i n British Columbia with a population of 10,000 or more, with a 69 seventy-eight percent agreement that the adult education services of the college would he expanded. With the projected increased enrolments i n non university technical or terminal career programs, the panel achieved seventy-two percent agreement that community colleges would continue their role of offering preparation for advanced university training, and one hundred percent panel agreement that the creation of more new colleges would provide greater academic opportunities. With the projected smaller increase of funds to universities, the panel foresaw, with seventy-two percent agreement, that community colleges would receive larger amounts of provincial funding for post-secondary education. V, The emergence of larger numbers of women into the employment f i e l d . From a total spectrum of points for discussion, con-sideration, and evaluation, the changing role of women was the subject for the l i v e l i e s t debate, with a marked tendency for wholehearted consensus. With a projected increase i n the labor force, the panel achieved 100% agreement that this was caused i n part by a larger proportion of working women. The greater percentage of employed females predicted received panel agreement of eighty-one percent that the number of females employed would more closely approach the number available to work; ninety-three percent agreement that there 70 would be a greater acceptance of females working i n industry; one hundred percent agreement that this would be the result of a desire for self fulfillment outside the home; and seventy percent agreement that this would be the result of concerted efforts of status of women groups. That re-training would be obviated by this increased percentage of employed women was reflected i n the projected event that f i f t y percent of families would be supported by both husband and wife, i n which the panel reached ninety-four percent agreement that this event would necessitate more training programs for wives going to work. The panel also achieved seventy-one percent agreement that this event would obviate a tremendous need for upgrading and re-training of women with families. With the potential event that provincially operated day care and drop i n centres were available, the panel reached seventy-three percent agreement that this would free women to work, thereby increasing the potential of these women. The panel also agreed, with ninety-four percent consensus, that this would allow women to pursue part-time or full-time training, and an eighty-eight percent agreement that this would necessitate more daytime adult education offerings. With the potential event that vocational training w i l l be provided at no cost, the panel reached an eighty-eight percent agreement that this would result i n more re-training of women. The panel agreed that not only would the status of 71 women be affected by increased and co-ordinated day care f a c i l i t i e s , but so would the total employment picture. These events would, i n turn, affect adult education both directly and indirectly. An example of this was seen i n the projected increased labor force which eighty-six percent of the panel agreed would result from improved day care f a c i l i t i e s . VI. Expansion of use of a l l public school f a c i l i t i e s  including the community school concept. The panel agreed with a seventy percent consensus that this active encouragement of community use of school f a c i l i t i e s would create new interest and approval. They also achieved eighty-two percent consensus on the concept that present trends pointed to an extension of the school day and to a broadening of age groups served, while reaching a seventy percent consensus that the demand for courses beyond regular school hours would increase as the traditional nine to three approach was extended. Should the community school concept develop, the panel reached a seventy-seven percent consensus that this would result i n greater community involvement with schools and programs. VII. Types of adult education courses anticipated. The primary type of program that the panel foresaw was that of up-grading and re-training. Panel agreement of ninety-one percent was achieved on the issue that job incentives w i l l encourage educational upgrading, while ninety-four percent consensus was reached on the need for continuous rather 72 than "once-in-a-lifetime" training, and a need for additional training programs i n a l l areas i f employees needed re-training received a seventy-five percent agreement. The panel also agreed that there would he a greater demand for recreational as well as upgrading programs. GOALS FOR ADULT EDUCATION A published report from the Educational Policy Research Centre states that "the future environments we w i l l actually encounter w i l l include the results of the actions of present men, pursuing what they believe to be worthwhile goals." (16:13) The Delphi method has been c r i t i c i z e d because i t "holds society as a constant" (which i t i s obviously not) with a subsequent lack of "goal orientation" i n which no effort i s made to "identify the supporting events desirable to make these goals achievable." (5:33) A deliberate attempt was made here to address this problem relative to adult education i n the coming decade as delineated i n this study. This section therefore combines "the actions of present men" (the co-operation of the panel in predicting trends) with the identification of the possible implication of those trends. These trends and their impli-cations w i l l thus be correlated into "worthwhile goals" for adult education i n British Columbia; together with possible or projected "supporting events" through which these goals might be achieved. 73 Goal One: The expansion of technical and vocational f a c i l i t i e s to include coverage comprehensive to the entire provincial population. The supporting events through which this goal may be achieved are:.-1. A considerably higher allotment of funds for specialized training equipment, upgraded texts, and other materials. 2. Increased co-operation between employers and training institutions• 3. The hiring, by either the institution or the employer, of specialized personnel, particularly those trained i n adult education, to implement this liaison or to act as consultants. 4-. A greater co-operation by the federal government i n supporting or expanding f a c i l i t i e s , for example, their Manpower supported programs. 5. The provision for extended use (on a 24- hour day basis) of a l l existing f a c i l i t i e s . 6. Either an expansion of local f a c i l i t i e s for more isolated parts of the province or the provision for accommodation adequate to student needs near present f a c i l i t i e s . 7. A stringent and practicable scheme for assessing employment needs within the province in order to more closely align training opportunities with job placement. 8. The development within less urbanized areas of the province through adult education services of suf-f i c i e n t l y attractive community resources to encourage students to either train there, or after training to leave the Lower Mainland and u t i l i z e their training i n these more rural areas thus contributing to further potential growth and development of those areas. 74 Goal Two: The co-ordination of adult education services to cover a l l those services provided through the Department of Education. The supporting events through which this goal may be achieved are: 1. An Associate or Assistant Deputy Minister be appointed whose sole area of concern would be adult education services. 2. The appointment of provincial personnel sufficient to co-ordinate these services at the local, regional and provincial level. 3. The employment of trained adult education counsellors to provide free day and evening adult counselling services regarding educational upgrading. This service would be provided within a close commuting distance (not in excess of three miles) i n larger communities and centralized i n more scattered population areas. 4. The appointment of sufficient adult education personnel trained specifically in public relations to act as liaison officers between a l l public schools (administrative, teaching and janitorial staff) and adult education services i n order to maximize the efficiency of these existing f a c i l i t i e s . 5. The hiring of trained adult educators to assist i n the development of para professional training programs, through a team approach of professional groups, licencing authorities and training centers. Goal Three: The training of a l l adult educators i n the methods, techniques, and objectives of adult education. The supporting events through which this goal may be achieved are: 1. The requirement of a professional diploma or c e r t i f i -cation i n the f i e l d of adult or higher education for a l l f u l l time adult education personnel. 2. The minimum course requirement of at least one adult education methods course for a l l student teachers. Goal Three (continued) 75 3. The co-ordination by The University of British Columbia's Department of Adult Education throughout the province of workshops and seminars for a l l instructors of adults i n universities, colleges and public night schools. Goal Four: The recognition of and adjustment to the changing roles of British Columbia's community colleges and universities by adult educators. The supporting events through which this goal may be achieved are: 1. The restructuring of the public image of the university through the expansion of i t s extension or continuing education divisions. 2. The extension of more degrees at both the undergraduate and graduate level on a part time basis. 5. The limiting of a l l universities' programs to areas of professional training only, thus eliminating, for example, the general B.A. degree. 4. The encouragement or the specific hiring of qualified personnel to travel between campuses and throughout the province i n order to disseminate education at both undergraduate and graduate levels. 5. The development of community colleges primarily for university transfer roles through their expansion to four year colleges. 6. The implementation through the medium of a provincially operated television or radio channel, an "open" university or "open" college concepts Goal Five: The recognition of and subsequent adjustment to the changing role of women i n the labor force. The supporting events through which this goal may be achieved are: 1. The development of more extensive pre-employment programs such as the Canada Manpower Employment Opportunities for Women. 76 Goal Five (continued) 2. The implementation into the K - 12 school program of courses specifically designed to prepare g i r l s for their projected roles as employees rather than or as well as homemakers. 3. The operation of day care centres (under 6) and drop i n centres (6 to 12+) under one co-ordinating provincial body. 4. The preparation for casual as well as f u l l time use of such day care f a c i l i t i e s . Goal Six: The expanded use of existing public school f a c i l i t i e s to embrace continuing education a c t i v i t i e s . The supporting events through which this goal may be achieved are: 1, Changes i n the physical f a c i l i t i e s i n a l l schools from elementary to secondary to accommodate adults as well as children, for example, tables and chairs that would suit either as opposed to small desks. 2. A' revision of the K - 12 curriculum with an emphasis on lifelong learning, 3. The negotiation of working conditions with CUPE employees to ensure union co-operation i n extended use of school f a c i l i t i e s . 4, The institution of a province wide community education public relations program to describe the community school concept. Goal Seven: The recognition of the equality of the status of adult education with present public school education. The supporting events through which this goal may be achieved are: 1. F i f t y - f i f t y cost sharing of public night school costs with the provincial government, 2, The establishment of a separate provincial department of education. 77 Goal Seven (continued) 3. The extensive preparation and dissemination of province wide public relations to create public aware-ness of the ever increasing function and practicability of continuing education act i v i t i e s to individual adults i n particular and to the provincial economy i n general. It i s apparent that the future of adult education l i e s primarily within two areas: f i r s t , the recognition of the equality of status with public school education; and second, the financial support needed either federally or provincially to achieve the seven stated goals. CONCLUSIONS This Delphi study on the future of adult education i n British Columbia over the next decade to 1984-, took approximately one and one half years from i t s inception to completion. During that time many changes have taken place i n the f i e l d of adult education, and already some of the predicted figures are obsolete in the light of new s t a t i s t i c s . It would appear however that the projected goals of the study have s t i l l not been f u l l y or even p a r t i a l l y attained. That at least two of these goals are universal may be seen i n the following examples from the Unesco Study, A Twenty One  Point Programme for a Global Strategy i n Education, when specific points are compared with two projected goals. Goal number one, the expansion of technical and vocational f a c i l i t i e s corresponds closely with point number nine from the Unesco study which states: "Responsibility for 78 technical training should not f a l l exclusively on the school system. It should be shared by schools, business, industry and out-of-school education." (2:20-32) Goal number seven, the recognition of the equality of the status of adult education with present public school education, i s reiterated i n two separate points i n the Unesco study, namely that: "Lifelong education should be the keystone of a l l educational policies i n the years ahead, i n industrially-developed as well as developing countries" and, "Development of adult education, i n and out of school, should be a priority objective of educational strategies during the next ten years." (2:20-32) whatever the future of adult education may encompass or require, i t i s the present task of policy or decision makers i n adult education to take into account global as well as provincial trends and to extrapolate them to-day i n order to deal effectively with them to-morrow. This study therefore comprises only a very minute contribution to that examination of and planning for the future of adult education i n British Columbia which can and must take place now. It would appear that the concept of lifelong education as a process i n which every person w i l l be actively engaged throughout his lifetime must be accepted, then integrated into the educational structure of this province. This can only be accomplished by the recognition that learning no longer begins and ends at a specified age. In a changing world where the only constant i s change, people must be prepared to 79 continue to learn from their earliest pre-school years to beyond retirement. The future of adult education i n Bri t i s h Columbia can be summarized in a quotation from another Unesco publication: "Ve should no longer assiduously acquire knowledge once and for a l l , but learn how to build up a continually evolving body of knowledge a l l through l i f e . We must 'learn to be'." (8:74) REFERENCES CITED 80 1. Adult Education i n B.C., Vancouver, Adult Education Research Centre, Faculty of Education, University of British Columbia, 1973. 2. "A 21-Point Programme for a global strategy i n education," The Unesco Courier, Unesco, November 1972. 3. Ayres, Robert V., Technological Forecasting and Long Range Planning, New York etc., McGraw-Hill Cook Co., 1967. 4. Berghofer, D., "An Application of the Delphi Technique to Educational Planning," The Canadian Administrator, Volume X, No. 6, March 1971. 5. Bemestein, G.B. and Cetron, N.J., "SEER : A Delphic Approach applied to Information Processing," Technological Forecasting, Volume 1, 1969-1970. 6. Dalkey, Norman W., "Delphi," An Introduction to Technological Forecasting, ed. Martino, J., London, Gordon & Breach Scientific Publishers, 1972. 7. Enzer, S. et a l . , Prospects for Social Change by 1985 and Their Impact on Time/Money Budgets, Middletown, Institute for The Future, March, 1972. 8. Faure, Edgar, et a l . , Learning to Be, London, Unesco-Harrop, 1972. 9. Jantsch, Eric, Technological Planning & Social Futures. London, Cassell/Assoc. Business Programs, 19721 10. Judd, R., "Use of Delphi Methods in Higher Education," Technological Forecasting and Social Changes, Volume 4, 1972. 11. Jungk, Robert, "Breakthrough to Tomorrow," Unesco Courier, Unesco, Apr i l , 1971. 12. Lanford, H.W., Technological Forecasting Methodologies, American Management Association, 1972. 13. Martino, Joseph, "The Consistency of Delphi Forecasts," The Futurist, April, 1967. 14. , Technological Forecasting for Decisionmaking, New York, American Elseview Publishing Company In-corporated, 1972. 81 15. Ontario Educational Communication Authority, Research and Development Branch, Learning for Change, Project No. 36, September 1973. 16. Sandow, Stuart, "Educational Policy Formation. Planning with the Focus Delphi and the Cross Purpose Notion," EPRC, February 1972. 17. Selman, Gordon R., "A Chronology of Adult Education i n British Columbia Before 1914," The Journal of Education, Volume 18, Winter 1971. 18. Toffler, Alvin, Future Shock, New York, Boston Books, 1970. 19. Turoff, M., "Delphi + Computers + Communication • ?," Industrial Applications of Technological Forecasting, ed. Cetron, M. and Ralph, C , New York, Wiley -Interscience, 1971. 20. Wales, B.E., "The Development of Adult Education," The Journal of Education, Volume 10. 21. Weaver, Timothy W.., "The Delphi Forecasting Method," Phi Delta Kappan, January 1 9 7 L 22. Wood, William E., "A Delphi Study Assessing Occupational Education's Needs," (unpublished Doctor's dissertation, University of Massachusetts, 1973). 82 SOURCE OF STATISTICAL INDICATORS Indicator One - B.C. Facts and Statistics, Volumes 1961 to 1971, Department of Industrial Development, Trade and Commerce, Economics and Statistics Branch, Parliament Buildings, Victoria, B.C, Indicator Two - Census of Canada 1971* Statistics Canada, Volume One - Part Two, Catalogue 92-715, Table 7^2, April, 1973. Indicator Three - B.C. Facts and Statistics, Volumes 1961 to 1971, Department of Industrial Development, Trade and Commerce, Economics and Statistics Branch, Parliament Buildings, Victoria, B.C. Indicator Four - Census of Canada 1971« Volume One, Part One. Catalogue 92-708, Bulletin One, Apr i l , 1973. Indicators Five, Six and Seven -Department of Education of the Province of British Columbia, Annual Reports from  1961 to 1971, by the Honorable the Minister of Education, Printer to the Queen's Most Excellent Majesty i n right of the Province of Br i t i s h Columbia. Indicators Eight, Nine, Ten, Eleven and Twelve - A Century of Education i n British Columbia: S t a t i s t i c a l Perspectives, 18ff1-197"n Statistics Canada, Education Division, Published by Authority of The Minister of Industry, Trade and Commerce, December, 1971• Indicator Thirteen - Pioneering a Profession i n Canada, Vancouver, Adult Education Research Center, Faculty of Education, University of British Columbia, 1972. APPENDIX A • -Letter requesting participation i n study. APPENDIX B Letter outlining procedure. Sample page. Questionnaire one. 86 APPENDIX B Adult Education Research Centre January 9, 1974, Dear Thank you for your very prompt response to my letter of Dec. 10, 1973. Please find enclosed the forecasting questionnaire which I described i n that letter. It consists of thirteen pages, each of which deals with one s t a t i s t i c a l indicator. Of the thirteen indicators chosen, four are from the area of economics; the remaining nine reflect trends i n education which appear to bear directly on adult education. The f i r s t page i s a sample of the format of the questionnaire. This questionnaire represents the f i r s t of three questionnaires. Data correlated and organized from your responses to this questionnaire w i l l form the basis for the second questionnaire. Please feel free to use your imagination which w i l l result i n a considerable broadening of the scope of the study. In making your predictions, however, consider what you think w i l l actually happen rather than what you hope would happen under ideal conditions. The only assumption you are asked to make is that the world w i l l avoid a large scale holocaust or disaster from either natural or man made causes. I appreciate your contribution to this study both i n terms of time and expertise and w i l l anticipate receiving your response at your earliest convenience. Yours truly, I n t h i s a n d s u b « s U , r . t q u c s t ! o n r . a i P s s y o u , . j U b , a s k e d o , v , l u t , c h a n g e , i n i h e f u t u r e o f a d ' u l t ^ I t h e p r o v i n c e o f B . C . , f 0 r C « , t a f ; n ; J ^ i" p r e s e n t s b e l o w b e o f v a l u e t o y , u i n a s ^ i ' < l V ? s S ? , t u d e ° f s u c h c h 6 ^ « ? O r win. e s t i ^ ' t i n g ^ i * -. n d , c a t o r a s s i s t y o u , n t h ; r ! < i o f f t l u p t c v > w i l l b e i m p o r t a n t i n d e t e r m i n i n g s u c h c h a f e s ? i f t h e a n s w e r t o e i l h c : question is Y E S | i f the answer t o K both quest iens is Hi./ ? l c « s e » » S S « t a n a l t e r a t i v e i n d i c a t o r b e l o w ( a n d a s o u r c e o f t h e r e q u i r e d d a t a , i f y o u k n o w o f o n e ) , , r g o o n t o t h e n e x t i n d i c a t o r . ' B 1 . P l e a s e e x t e n d t h e t r e n d l i n e ( s ) t o I57O 1 I 5 3 4 r "L< M l , J [—r-r-i-f-f— 5 ^ <i ^ p.L-L T T i 1 1 i-'Tf'i . 1. ^ ; . . . n f r v r ; ~ :y$t|-i.Ei:|;ii:E;t±r:H T T T * i T l'i"t"l"t T Kii^jTij iTITfi-if Vfff i " 4/ v/ v i - t<; Y<2 3- W h a t i s y o u r l e v e l o f f a m i l i a r i t y w i t h t h i s s u b j e c t ? E x p e r t Q u i t e f a m i l i a r J Ca s u a 1 U n f a o i i i a c 2. L i s t e d b c l o v a r e p o s s i b l e d e v e l o p m e n t s w h i c h may b e r e l a t e d t o f u t u r e c h a n g e s i n t h i s i n d i c a t o r . P l e a s e c h e c k t h o s e w h . c n y o u f e e l w i l l b e i m p o r t a n t t o c h a n 3 e s i n t h e f u t u r e o f a d u . t e d u c a t i o n b y \<-Ki, a n d a d d o t h e r s w h i c h o c c u r t o y o u i n m a k i n g y o u r e i . t i . 7 a t e . y i d u l t s w i l l s p e n d .'.lore m o n e y on u p g r a d i n g t h e i r a c a d e m i c or [ v o c a t i o n a l t r a i n i n g A d u l t s w i l l s p e n d m o r e m o n e y on r c c r e a i i c n a 1 a c t i v i t i e s a s f o r c x a . T i p i t , s k i i n g , c u r l i n g , b o w l i n g , e t c . r A d u l t s w i l l s p e n d m o r e m o n e y on p a s s i v e l e i s u r e t i m e a c t i v i t i e s a s g o i n g t o t h e t h e a t r e , v i s i t i n g m u s e u m s , e t c . ^ 3 " M X 0 0 In this and subsequent questlonnaIres you will be asked t o evaluate changes | n the future of adult education In t h e province of B.C. Will a forecast of the indicator presrnted below be of value to you in assessing t h e •agnilude of such changes? Or will estimating this indicator assist y 0 u in thinking of future events which will be important in determining such changes? |"lf the answer to either] quest ion is YES If the answer to -\ [both questions la My Please s u g g e s t an a l t e r n a t i v e I n d i c a t o r b e l o w (and a '" s o u r c e ,f t h , r e q u i r e d d a t a , I f you know o f o n e ) , , r go on t o the next i n d i c a t o r . B 1. Please extend the trend line(s) to I376 4 1J84 INOKATCR QN£j INCRGASE IN U30R FORC.F. 3. What is your level of familiarity wit h this subject? l^ uite familiar f~~] Ca sua 1 Unfara i liar 2. Listed below are possible developments which may be related to future changes In this indicator. Pl.sse check those which you feel will be important to changes in the future of adult education by 1J84, and add others which occur to you in making your estimate. . b o a r d i n g f a c i l i t i e s on o r n e a r t h e campus w i l l be p r o v i d e d f o r e v e r y v o c a t i o n a l t r a l n i r y I n s t i t u t i o n . a p r e r e q u i s i t e t o a l l employment w i l l be c l a u s e s w r i t t e n i n t o • a l l w o r k i n g a g r e e m e n t s t h a t u p g r a d i n g o r r e t r a i n i n g w i l l be o f f e r - e d t o a l l t h o s e whose p o s i t i e n s a r e phased o u t t h r o u g h t e c h n o l o g i c a l p r o g r e s s v o c a t i o n a l t r a i n i n g w i l l be p r o v i d e d a t no c o s t t o a l l t h o s e who a r e unemployed 00 0 0 ) INDICATOR TWO; CHANGE IN AGE GROUP DISTR IBU7i0N In t h i s and s u b s e q u e n t q u e s t i o n n a i r e s you w i l l be a 5 k e d to e v a l u a t e c h a n g e s i n the f u t u r e o f o d u l t e d u c a t i o n i n the p r o v i n c e of B . C . W i l l a f o r e c a s t o f the i n d i c a t o r p r e s e n t e d b e l o w be o f v a l u e t o you in a s s e s s i n g t h e • • a g n i t u d e o f s u c h c h a n g e s ? Or w i l l e s t i m a t i n g t h i s i n d i c a t o r a s s i s t you i n t h i n k i n g o f f u t u r e e v e n t s w h i c h w i i i be i m p o r t a n t i n d e t e r m i n i n g s u c h c h a n g e s ? I i t h e a n s w e r t o e i thcr | q u e s t i o n i s YES • - 7 If t h e a n s w e r t o b o t h q u e s t i o n s i s NC P l e a s e s u g g e s t a n a l t e r n a t i v e i n d i c a t o r b e l o w ( a n d a s o u r c e o f t h e r e q u i r e d d a t a , | f y O U k n o w o f o n J } , r on t o t h e n e x t I n d i c a t o r . * 1. P l e a s e e x t e n d t h e t r e n d l i n e ( s ) t o I J / o 4 1J84 I N O I C A T C ~ T V 0 t C ; ^ F _ 1 N _ A T . F rtH?.iipnir,Kip777-|77p 3. What i s y o u r l e v e l o f f a r a i l i s r i t y w i t h t h i s s u b j e c t ? Expert Q Q u i t e f a a i l l a r " j ] Ca sua 1 U n f a m i l i a r L i s t e d b e l o w a r e p o s s i b l e d e v e l o p m e n t s which may be r e l a t e d t o f u t u r e c h a n g e s in t h i s I n d i c a t o r . P l e a s e c h e c k t h o s e w h i c h you f e c i w i l l be i m p o r t a n t t o c h a n g e s i n the f u t u r e o f a d u l t e d u c a t i o n by 1 J 8 4 , and add o t h e r s which o c c u r t o you i n mak ing y o u r e s t i m a t e . _ a v e r a g e num b e r o f y e a r s o f e d u c a t i o n w i l l e x c e e d 13 y e a r s _ t h e p u b l j e s c h o o l s y s t e m w i l l p r o v i d e f r e e p o s t - s e c o n d a r y e d u c a t i o n f o r a n a d d i t i o n a l two y e a r s a f t e r h i g h s c h o o l c o m p l e t i c n . a p o r t i o n o f t h e c u r r i c u l u m f o r a l l c h i l d r e n f rom K to 12 w i l l be d e v o t e d s p e c i f i c a l l y to l i f e l o n g l e a r n i n g , a s o p p o s e d to e n d - g o a l o r i e n t e d e d u c a t i o n In this and subsequent quest ionnaires you w i U be asked to evaluate changes in the future of adult education in the province of B.C. W i l l a forecast of the ind ica tor presented below be of value to you in assessing t h , «agn , l ude of such changes? Or w i l l estimating th i s ind ica tor a s s i s t you in thinking of future events which w i i l be important in determining such changes? I f the answer to e i ther] question is YES If the answer to -N |both • quest ions is ti{.-/ Please suggest an a l t e rna t i ve Indicator below (and a source of the required data, i f you know of one), i r go on to the next Indicator. 1. Please extend the trend l i n e ( s ) to I576 4 138* IN'OICATCR THRFF. INCREASE IN NUMBER OF FFMAI.FS EMPLOYFp ~ 3. What is your l e v e l of f a m i l i a r i t y wit h th i s • subject? Expert LZI C 4 S U L L Quite f a a i l i a r ( ] Unfami l i a r EZT L i s ted below are possible developments which may be re la ted to future chan 3es in th is ind ica tor . Please check those which you f e e l w i l l be important to changes in the future of adult education by 1=84, and add others which occur to you in making your estimate. prov inc ia l )y operated ch i ld care centres (under 6) and drop in e'entres (6 to 12) w i l l be provided l o ca l l y on a per capita basi 1 , seminars w i l l be offered on-the-job to working or s ingle parentsj on topics s p e c i f i c to changing work roles of mothers and father , a l l t ra in ing in s t i tu t ions as vocat ional schools w i l l provide day care f a c i l i t i e s on the premises In th is and subsequent quest ionnaires you w i l l be asked to evaluate changes in the future of adult education in the province of B . C . W i l l a forecast of the ind ica to r presented below be of value to you in assessing the Eagmtude of such changes7 Or w i l l estimating t h i s ind ica to r a s s i s t you in thinking of future events which w i l l be important in determining such changes? IT the answer to e i then! question is YES If the answer to both questions is N Please sug 3 est an a l t e r n a t i v e ind ica tor below (and a source of the required data , if you know of one) , ^r go on to the next i n d i c a t o r . ' * 1. Please extend the trend l i n e ( s ) to I576 4 1554 INDICATOR FUIR: SHIFT IN POPULATION FROM RURAL TO WBi'N.nRE&S . . . . O v e r 8Ci of B . C . ' s populat ion res ides in organized communities ( incorporated m u n i c i p a l i t i e s ) , Graph represents a comparison between Vancouver (org . co^'Tun.) and Rossland (unorgan. commun.) in terms of jrowth. , . r . . r _ t , , , • 1-UL. ew , rZe>oi> / a.r, cC _ 3. What is your l e v e l of f a m i l i a r i t y wit h t h i s subject? Expert Q Casual CZ3 Qui t * f a o i l i a r Unfaraj l isr 1 f 2. Lis ted below are possible developments which may be re la ted to future changes in th is Indicator . Please check those which you f e e l w i l l be important.to changes in the future of adult education by 1J84, and add others which occur to you in making your est imate. A l l organiacd communities w i l l develop the community school concept _ A l l organized communities w i l l provide free "neighbourhood" counsel l ing serv ices f o r a l l adul ts who desi re them regarding upgrading the i r education . A l l organized communities w i l l co-ordinate and administer a l l adult education serv ices within the i r area In th is and subsequent questionnaires you w i l l be asked U evaUate changes in the future of s d g l l education in t h . province of B.C. W i l l a f o r e s t of the ind ica tor presented below be of value to you in assessing t h 8 eagn.tudc of iuch changes? Or w i l l estimating th i s ind ica tor a s s i s t you in thinking 0 f future events which w l i i be important in determining such changer.? Ii the answer to either) question is YES TT !both t h »• answer to f \ quest Jena is Hlj./ Please suggest an a l t e r a t i v e ind icator below (and a source of the required data, i f y o u i < n o M o f o n j on to the next i nd i ca to r . ' 8 1. Please extend the trend l i ne ( s ) to I576 4 15s* UUWAICP nV.E.» WLuJ!f_Jtti5 (KUC1CKS ,.|N JHF, WU ic 3. What is your l e v e l of f a r a i l i a r i t y wit h th i s subject? Expert LZ7| Quite f a m i l i a r " " [ | Unfsnii l i a r L i s ted below are possible developments which may be re la ted to future changes | n th i s ind ica tor . Please check those which you f e d w i l l be important to charges in the future of adult education by 1JS4, and add others which occur to you in making your cel lmate. . " m i n i " courses in adult teaching techniques w i l l be mandatory for a l l new adult education instructors , the Dept. of Ed. w i l l provide regional administrat ive s t a f f to co-ordinat* night school « c t i v i t i « o .a f u l l t i ne night school d i rec to r in each school d i s t r i c t o f f e r i ng night school courses w i l l be appointed In t h i s and s u b s e q u e n t q u e s t i o n n a i r e s you w i l l be a s k c i to e v a l u a t e change s i n the f u t u r e o f a d u l t e d u c a t i o n in the p r o v . n c e o f B .C . W i l l a f o r e c a s t o f the i n d i c a t o r p r e s e n t e d be l ow be o f v a l u e t o you in a s s e s s i n g t h e » a g n , t u d e o f such changes ? Or w i l l e s t i m a t i n g t h i s i n d i c a t o r a s s i s t you i n t h i n k i n g o f f u t u r e e v e n t s wh ich w i l l be i m p o r t a n t i n d e t e r m i n i n g such c h a n g e s ? IT T h e "answer fo~ei"the' i j q u e s t i o n i s YES i f t h e answer to p\ b o t h q u e s t i o n s i s N d / P l e a s e sugge s t an a l t e r n a t i v e i n d i c a t o r be low (and a s o u r c e o f the r e q u i r e d d a t a , i f you know o f o n e ) , •sr co on to the next i n d i c a t o r . ' b 1. P l e a s e e x t e n d the t r e n d l i n e ( s ) t o I576 4 1554 INDICATOR SIX. NO. OF ADMINISTRATORS IN PUBLIC, uliiUI^ .C l lC i ) L^PxRATJLO i^ * •Graph i n d i c a t e s f u l l t ime a d m i n i s t r a t o r s o n l y . I 'nil n [J—t— ' T i 3fl -I-13 T I I i fflT SE u. 6' LLL 4 f . T-r - i - i " 7 * . ;*'{ ! I L p"!"Tt r - -TTi - ' -T T T I ! T T T •rm j 1 P f i ' T "T ,. .J.-:T L.L.1.1 FR T r r 64. 7/ M v h n T O T I T T g u 4-7& 3. What i s y o u r l e v e l o f f a m i l i a r i t y w i t h t h i s a u b i e c t ? Expert C a s u a l Q u i t e f a o i l i a r j ] U n f a m i l i a r czr L i s t e d be low a r e p o s s i b l e d e v e l o p m e n t s which may be r e l a t e d to f u t u r e changes in t h i s i n d i c a t o r . P l e a s e check t h o s e which you f e c i w i l l be impor tan t t o changes i n the f u t u r e o f a d u l t e d u c a t i o n by 1J84 , and add o t h e r s which o c c u r t o you in making y o u r e s t i m a t e . . a p r e r e q u i s i t e to a t t a i n i n g an a d m i n i t t r a t i ve pose in a d u l t e d u c a t i o n w i l l be a g r a d u a t e deg ree i n a d u l t e d u c a t i o n . c o - o r d i n a t i o n o f a d u l t e d u c a t i o n s e r v i c e s a t t h e r e g i o n a l and l o c a l l e v e l w i l l be i n s t i t u t e d under the a u s p i c e s o f t h e D e p t . o f E d u c a t i o n , a s e p a r a t e depar tment o f - a d u l t - e d u c a t i on w i l l be o r g a n i z e d a t t h e p r o v i n c i a l g o v e r n m e n t a l l e v e l INUICATOfi SEVfNi NO. Or SCHOOL OISTHICTS OFF EHING PUBLIC NIGHT SCHOOL PROGRAMS In th is and subsequent quest ionnaires you w i l l be asked to evaluate changes in the future of adult education in the province of B . C . W i l l a forecast of the ind ica to r presented below be of v a l , c to you in assessing the » a 3 n , t u d e of such changes? Or wi 11 est imatjng t h i s i n d i c a t o r a s s i s t you in thinking of future events which w i l l be important in determining such changes? If the answer to eitherf question is YES i f the a nswcr to [both quest ion r  jK s is NQ-/ P l c s s e suggest an a l t e r n a t i v e ind ica tor below (and a » « T % K F * h , / 5 q " ! r c d d a l a ' i f X ° u o f o n , ) , . , r so on to the next i n d i c a t o r . ' s 1. P l e a 3 e extend the trend l i n e ( s ) to I576 4 I534 [NOICATCR SFVFMi NO. OP SCHOOL DISTRICTS OFFS.R INGj • PUBLIC NIGHT SCHOOL PROGRAMS 3. What is your l e v e l o f f a m i l i a r i t y wit h t h i s subject? Expert LZI Casual f [ (juite f a m i l i a r • Unfami l i a r ] J L is ted below are possible developments which may be re la ted to future changes in th is i n d i c a t o r . Please check those which you f e e l w i l l be important to changes in the future of adult education by 1J84, and add others which occur to you in making your est imate. , r e g i o n a l community c o l l e g e s w i l l t a ke o v e r v o c a t i o n a l and a cademic f u n c t i o n s o f p r e s e n t n i g h t s c h o o l s y s tem _ p u b l i c n i g h t s c h o o l s w i l l o f f e r g e n e r a l i n t e r e s t / n o n v o c a t i o n a l c o u r s e s o n l y _ p u b l i c s c h o o l s w i l l become community r e c r e a t i o n a l c e n t r e s i n t h e e v e n i n g s a v a i l a b l e f r e e f o r use to a l l members o f t h e community In th is and subsequent quest ionnaires you w i l l be asked to evaluate changes in the future of adult education in the province of B . C . W i l l a forecast of the i n d i c a t o r preserved below be of value to you in assessing the "agn.tudc of such changes? Or w i l l est imating t h i , i n d i c a t o r a s s i s t you in th inking of future events which w i l i be important in determining such changes? If the answer to either) question is YES i t t h e answer to both questions Is Please suggest an a l t e r n a t i v e ind ica to r below (and a source of the required d a t a , if. you know of one) , , r go on to the next i n d i c a t o r . ' 8 1. Please extend the trend l i n e ( s ) to I576 4 1984 INDICATOR FIGHT, ENROLMENTS IN POST-SECONDARY NON UNIVERSITY TFCMNICAL CR TFRMINA! "cARCFR PROGRAMS'" L i s t e d below arc poss ib le developments which may be re la ted to future changes in t h i s i n d i c a t o r . Please check those which you f e e l w i l l be important to changes in the future of adult education by 1J84 , and add others which occur to you in making your est imate . 3- What is your l e v e l of f a m i l i a r i t y wit h t h i s subject? Expert fJZJ C a s u a l ' CZH Quite f a o i l i a r j ] Un fami l i a r L" \ i n s t i t u t i o n s w i l l be estab l ished to o f f e r 'para p ro fess iona l * t ra in ing in a l l areas of pro fess iona l work, e . g . , law, medicine, teaching, engineer ing , e tc . reg iona l c o l l e g e s w i l l serve pr imari ly as job t ra in ing i n s t i t u t i o n s ____ s p e c i f i c on the job programs w i l l be developed to a l l e v i a t e b oredoa in tedious or r e p e t i t i o u s i n d u s t r i a l or factory jobs INDICATOR N.NF, PART TIME ACADEMIC ( U N I V E P S m T R A C E R ) FNRfilMFWJ jN R E O t C N A > . M , , C » C , In th is and subsequent quest ionnaires vou w i l l be a,'„ed to e v a U a t e changes-In the future of adul t education in the province of B . C . W i l l a forecast of the i n d i c a t o r presented below be of value to you In assessing the •agn.lude of such changes? Or w i l l estimating t h i s ind ica to r a s s i s t you in thinking of future events which . w i n Oe important in determining such changes? If the answer to eitherl quest icn is YES TRANSFER) ENROLMENT IM RF ft | CN AL COI.LFCFr;* h Includes B .C . I .T . , Capilan:; , Car iboo, Douglas, i Malaspma, New Caledonia , Okanagon, S e l k i r k , Vancouver City Co l lege . 3 Z If the an swer to both questions is 4> Fieose suggest an a l t e r n a t i v e Indicator below (and'a source of the required data , | f y 0 U know of or . - ) , , r „ on to the next i n d i c a t o r . ' 3 J I CAT QR N|,\'E, PART TIME ACADEMIC f UN I 7F»e. I TV TDflMOT'-n \ r i . n o . 77. . _.. ! h : ~ — 7 3 E x p e r t [ 1 Quite f a m i l i a r [ ] Casual Unfa m i 1 ia r 1. Please extend the trend l i n e ( s ) to 1J7& 4 1°S4 j 2 . L i s t e d belo'v are poss ib le developments which nay be r e l a t e d to future changes in t h i s i n d i c a t o r . Please check those which you f e e l w i l l be important to changes in the future of adul t education by 1JS4, and add others which occur to you in making your est imate . • - tgienal c o l l e g e s w i l l o f f e r pr imari ly basic education f o r fo r high school completion than univers i ty t ransfer courses to part time students courses which school and . r e g i o n a l co l leges w i l l o f f e r pr imar i ly «».ini'» w i l l serve a s academic "bridges'- between h i 3 h u n i v e r s i t i e s to part time students-reg ional co l leges w i l l o f f e r pr imari ly non c red i t academic courses to part time students 3. What is your l e v e l of f a m i l i a r i t y wit h t h i s ! subject? ! }M-*L$iMm. ANQ-VOCATIONAL RCIiflOIJ? In t n , s ar.d subsc H u ,n t que S t i cr.n 4 i r o , you „81J be asked 1? C V l K i ' e in the future of adult education in t h e prov.nce of B . C . . W i l l a forecast of the i n d i c a t o r presented below be of ». U c to you in » S S C 5 s i n q the Mfjn . U - d e of such changes? Or w i l l est i ™ t ing" th i , i n d i c a t o r a s s i s t y o u | n th inking of future events which w i l i be important in determining such changes? T f ~ £ h a answer to ei thci question is YES I the answer to Iboth quci-ticn.-i is 3> Please suggest an a l t e r n a t i v e ind ica tor below (and a source of the required da ta , i f you know of o n e ) , ,r go on to the next i n d i c a t o r . 3 1. P l e a 3 c extend the trend l i n o ( s ) to i ^ o i 1J84 l^ IU£ij[£!H_r£N, ms^i r.riiffps j,'-;r;-i H£iiY I f l T E C M f J J C A i . Jncludes e:irolirent ir. voc.-. t ioiv. 1 di v i • :>ns of co l leges e. ; . j - ; - y | - | - r , ;]-<•]) j \ T; l r -;; j ' ! ; - : r-;-T-;.-]3„ H r r ! I? ! . i ; H j i m i x ] U-'-L"hj.n:i.LS:|:|:iiuid i i JL i i i n : _ j T T 3 " i Z f T T l J T " i ~l H i I H i i i T r t r n T i rr°t-T-L i _ i f T i i: i T i i | n T T T T T T T r r r r r r r r n H V £ •= 7/ 7£ 3. What is your l e v e l of f a m i l i a r i t y wit h t h i s subject? f " ? « r t , CH, , Casual t = i Quits f a a i l i a r [ | U n f a . - 3 j l j 4 P T J L i s t e d below are poss ib le developments which may be re la ted to future changes in th is i n d i c a t o r . Please check those Which y o u f c c i w i l l b < . j , , p o r t a n t l ( > e h a n g c s j n t ( , e f u t u r e o. adul t education by 1 5 8 4 , and add others which occur to you in making your est imate . the D i p t , of E d . w i l l provide employees with f i ve years* i/ork experience with o p t i o n a l a d d i t i o n a l upgrading t r a i n i n g free of cost , ^ t | employees w i l l receive educational allowances a s f r i n g e b e n e f i t s i n t h e i r occupations „ a l l e m p l o y e e s w i l l r e c e i v e i n c e n t i v e b o n u s e s b a s e d on e d u c a t i o n a l c r e d i t h o u r s i n u p g r a d i n g t h e i r s k i l l s In th is and subsequent c«ucsi ionn* i res «Z-J •>., a * k , d to evaluate c h a n t s in the • • , ( , - » 7. * . the province of d . C . W i l l a forecast of the i n d i c a t o r presented below be of value to ysu ir. a — . , ^ ; n . . u , e--.gn.lude of such changes? Or w i l l est ima t i r . A h ' » i n d i c a t o r a s s i s t you Jr. th inking of future events which w i l i be important in determining such changer.? pT the answer to question is YE i  either . i I f the a nswer to F\ 'both questions ia Hi../ Plcsse s u r e s t i n a l i e r .vs i ive ind ica tor below (and a source o. the required data , if. you know of one) , , r on to th * next i n d i c a t o r . ; go 1. Please extend the trend l i n e ( s ) to 1J70 £ 1°S4 INDICATOR E L E V E N , UN (ygfjc <T I r e QprRAT I'I" A N1 (VP'YA' l i P I M l l i ^ . " - " ' » Includes U . B . C . , Siraan Eraser , U.of V i c t o r i a , and Notre Dame Y £ - r v A 3. What is your l e v e l of f a m i l i a r i t y wit h t h i ; subject? Quite f a a i l i a r Ca.sua 1 UnfaiTii l i a r L i s t e d below are poss ib le dovelepraents which may be re la ted to future changes in th is i n d i c a t o r . Please check those which you f e e l w i l l be important to changes in the future or adul t education by 1J34, and add others which occur to you in making your est imate . the "open un i ve r s i t y " Concept w i l l be implemented in order to r*sch more non res ident students at less cost increased fee s tructure w i l l resul t in fewer students being able to a f f o r d un ivers i ty t ra in ing industry w i l l implement and f inance t ra in ing programs on u n i v e r s i t y campuses 00 \ lMlmitrlJ_w£Ly§ i • FULL 7 iME C»i:OLaf;HT IH UNj VE-PS !1I £S In th is and subsequent quest ionnaires you w i l l be asked to evaluate changes in the future of adult education in the Province of B.C. W i l l a forecast of the ind ica tor pres.-r.Ud below be of value to you in assessing the magnitude of such changes? Or w i l l estimating th i s ind ica tor a s s . s l you in thinking of future events which w i l l be important in determining such changes? 1'lt the answer to ei iherj question is YES i f the an ;u»r io [both questions io N P l e a s c 5"93est an a l t e r n a t i v e ind icator below (and a source of the required data, i f y o u Wnow o f o n J } , p on to the next i nd i c a to r . ' s Please extend the trend l i ne ( s ) to lJ/G 4 1J04 1K01 C A T OR T / F i y F . fJULLJLU-'FLliiiJI)! »ZJ.U-J f i _ U l ! v r 0 S i . . • includes U.B.C., S i ° o * f r a . c r , U. 0f ~ V i c 1 0 r T t T ^ d Notr* Came / 11 » t ' ' I ' ' J ' • i 3cU. i qn till 4 4 - ! - i ' i-T T T 1 1 :J--| I I I : T i T T j r r ^ h T r r r X T z n z a n 4 4 . T I T m 3. What is your l e v e l of f a n i l i a r i t y wit h t h i s subject? Expert J Casual £ " 3 Quite f a m i l i a r [~J U n f a a i l t a r L i i t c J below are posoible di-velopments which may be re la ted to future changes in th i s ind ica tor . Please check those which you f e e l w i l l be important to changes in the future Of adult education by I3154, and add others which occur to you in making your est imate. _ mt?sibcrs of pro fess iona l occupations w i l l be required through l e g i s l a t i o n to take " r e f r e s h e r " courses annually a l l un i ve r s i t i e s w i l l r.'-ike a l l degree programs ava i l ab le through part tii>e attandar.ee u n i v e r s i t i e s w i l l extend post graduate (univers i ty graduation) education throughout the province through a combination oft (a) correspondence and (b) t r a v e l l i n g professors who w i l l hold weekly, week end seminars in Ices populated areas of B.C. !." t h i l 4 n d s« iT .c H ueni qvcst io .v .a i rcs y . n y w i l l b« u- ' . -oC to e v a l u t c changes in t i - future of c'u ' ' -{..-• ' : - r, ' : •> the province of B . C . W i l l « f o r c e s 5 i of"th.- ' i r d i e ^ o -presented below be of value to you jr, J ! 6 c , 5 ! r ) , , the magnitude of such chanjes? Or w i l l est i*-U i n / t h i , i n d i c a t o r a s s i s t you in thinking o f future c v ^ U which D « important in de t « r e i n ir,g such changes? Tt the answer to e i lhe i question is YE.'l i f the answer io~~1\ both que: :• lefts is NQ. / P l e a s e suggest tr. < seurcs c f the requl . Cw w* on to the .next i n d i c a t o r . . c r i - . ; v : v e ind ica tor below (and a •cd <ii.U, i f you know of one), i r go a i o r . 1. Please extend the trend l i n o ( 5 ) to IJ 'o i 1$34 INDICATOR THIRTEEN, ENROLMENT IN U.B C «S DEPARTMENT OF AOULT EDUCATION* ' ' * Includes undergraduate and poet graduate students 2. 3. What is your l e v e l of f a m i l i a r i t y wit h ih l f subject? Expert Casual gu i le f a o i l i a r [_~] Unfami l ia r ] ~ T L is ted bclou are possible developments which may be re la ted to future changes in th is i n d i c a t o r . Please check those which you f e e l w i l l be important to changes in the future of adult education by 1J84, and add others which occur to you in making your est imate. . a d u l t education inst ructors for a l l f u l l tima teaching p c i i t i o n a w i l l require Dept. of fed, c e r t i f i c a t i o n . a un ivers i ty dept. in education w i l l be establ ished whose sole funct ion w i l l be devoted to research in the, present and future status of adult education _ adult educit ion w i l l receive equal recogni t ion in terns of f i n a n c i n g , curr icu lum, admin is t ra t ion , etc. . with public school «duca tSon O O 101 APPENDIX C Letter outlining procedure. Two-page summary sheet (part one of questionnaire two). Sample page and part two of questionnaire two. Sample page and part three of questionnaire two. — S 1 J A T - ITEMS' P e r -c e n t a g e B o a r d i n g f a c i l i t i e s on o r n e a r the campus w i l t be p r o v i d e d f o r e v e r y v o c a t i o n a l t r a i n i n g i n » t i t u t i o n • A p r e r e q u i s i t t t o a l l employment w i l l be c l a u s e s w r i t t e n i n t o a l l work ing ag reement s t h a t u p g r a d i n g o r r e t r a i n i n g w i l l be o f F i r e d to a l l t ho se whose p o s i t i o n s a r e phased out t h r o u g h t e c h n o l o g i c a l p r o g r e s s V o c a t i o n a l t r a i n i n g w i l l be p r o v i d e d a t no c o s t t o a l l t h o s e who a r e unemployed A v e r a g e numb e r o f y e a r s o f e d u c a t i o n w i l l e x c e e d 13 y e a r s The p u b l i c s c h o o l s y s tem w i l l p r o v i d e f r e e p o s t - s e c o n d a r y e d u o t i o n f o r an a d d i t i o n a l two y e a r s a f t e r h i g h s c h o o l c o m p l e t i o n A p o r t i o n o f t h e c u r r i c u l u m f o r a l l c h i l d r e n f rom K t o 12 w i l l be d e v o t e d s p e c i f i c a l l y t o l i f e l o n g l e a r n i n g , a s o p p o s e d t o e n d - g o a l o r i e n t e d e d u c a t i o n P r o v i n c i a l l y o p e r a t e d c h i l d c a r e c e n t r e s ( u n d e r 6) and d r o p i n c e n t r e s (b t o 12*) w i l l b e p r o v i d e d l o c a l l y on a p e r c a p i t a b a s i s S e m i n a r s w i l l be o f f e r e d o n - t h e - j o b t 0 w o r k i n g o r s i n g l e parent is on t o p i c s s p e c i f i c to c h a n g i n g work r o l e s o f mothers and f a t h e r s ] A l l t r a i n i n g i n s t i t u t i o n s as v o c a t t o n a l s c h o o l s w i l l p r o v i d o day c a r e f a c i l i t i e s on t h e p r e m i s e s A l l o r g a n i z e d commun i t i e s w i l l dev e l o p the community s c h o o l c o n c e p t A l l o r g a n i z e d commun i t i e s w i l l p r o v i d e f r e e " n e i g h b o u r h o o d " c o u n s e l l i n g s e r v i c e s , f o r a l l a d u l t s who d e s i r e them r e g a r d i n g u p g r a d i n g t h e i r e d u c a t i o n A l l o r g a n i z e d commun i t i e s w i l l c o - o r d i n a t e and a d m i n i s t e r a l l a d u l t e d u c a t i o n s e r v i c e s w i t h i n t h e i r a r e a " M i n i ' * c o u r s e s i n a d u l t t e a c h i n g t e c h n i q u e t wi 11 be mandat o r y f o r a l l new a d u l t e d . i n s t r u c t o r s The D e p t . o f E d . w i l l p r o v i d e r e g i o n a l a d m i n i s t r a t i v e s t a f f t a c o - o r d i n a t e n i g h t s c h o o l a c t i v i t i a a A f u l l t ime n i g h t s c h o o l d i r e c t o r i n each s c h o o l d i s t r i c t o f f e r i n g n i g h t s c h o o l c o u r s e * w i l l b e a p p o i n t e d 23.3 7 0 50 33 333 50 30 30 60 40 53-3 40 40 40 50 CANp|0AT iJ . I i J l S . P e r -c e n t a g e Actua i n o . A p r e r e q u i s i t e to a t t a i n i n g an a d m i n i s t r a t i v e pos t i n a d u l t e d u c a t i o n w i l l be a g r a d u a t e d e g r e e i n a d u l t e d . 23.3 7 17. C o - o r d i n a t i o n o f a d u l t e d u c a t i o n s e r v i c e s a t t h e r e g i o n a l and l o c a l l e v e l w i l l b e i n s t i t u t e d under the a u s p i c e s o f the D e p t . o f E d u c a t i on 73-3 22 18. A S e p a r a t e depa r tment o f a d u l t e d u c a t i o n w i l l be o r g a n i z e d a t the p r o v i n c i a l g o v e r n m e n t a l l e v e l 33 11 13- Community c o l l e g e s w i l l take o v e r v o c a t i o n a l and a c a d e m i c f u n c t i o n s o f p r e s e n t n i g h t s c h o o l s y s tem 50 15 2 0 . P u b l i c n i g h t s c h o o l s w i l l o f f e r g e n e r a l i n x e r e s t / n on v o c a t i o n a l C o u r s e s o n l y 23.3 7 21. P u b l i c s c h o o l s w i l l become community r e c r e a t i o n a l c e n t r e s i n the e v e n i n g s a v a i l a b l e f r e e f o r use to a l l memb e r s o f the community <3.3. 13 2 2 . I n s t i t u t i o n s w i l l be e s t a b l i s h e d to o f f e r ' pa ra< p r o f e s s i o n a l t r a i n i n g i n a l l a r e a s of p r o f e s s i o n a l work, e . g . l aw, m e d i c i n e , et = • 53 -3 li 2 3 . R e g i o n a l c o l l e g e s w i l l s e r v e p r i m a r i l y as j o b t r a i n i n g i n s t i t u t i o n s 4 b . b 14 2 4 . S p e c i f i c on the job programs w i l l be d e v e l o p e d to a l l e v i a t e boredom i n t e d i o u s o r r e p e t i t i o u s i n d u s t r i a l o r f a c t o r y j o b s 53-3 l i 2 5 . Community c o l l e g e s w i l l o f f e r p r i m a r i l y b a s i c e d u c a t i o n f a r h i g h s c h o o l c o m p l e t i o n than u n i v e r s i t y t r a n s f e r c o u r s e s to p a r t t ime s t u d e n t s 2b.6 8 26. Community c o l l e g e s w i l l o f f e r p r i m a r i l y " m i n i " c o u r s e s w h i c h w i l l s e r v e a s a c a d e m i c " b r i d g e s " between h i g h s c h o o l and u n i v e r s i t i e s t o p a r t t ime s t udent s 4 3 . 3 13 27. Community c o l l e g e s w i l l o f f e r p r i m a r i l y non c r e d i t a c a d e m i c c o u r s e s t o p a r t t ime s t u d e n t s 13.3 5 2 8 . The O e p t . o f E d . w i l l p r o v i d e employees w i t h 5 y e a r s * work e x p e r i e n c e w i th o p t i o n a l a d d i t i o n a l u p g r a d i n g t r a i n i n g f r e e o f c o s : 10 3 23. A l l e m p l i y e e s w i l l r e c e i v e e d u c a t i o n a l a l l o w a n c e s a s f r i n g e b e n e f i t s i n t h e i r o c c u p a t i o n s 23.3 7 30. A l l emp loyees w i l l r e c e i v e i n c e n t i v e bonuses b a s e d on e d u c a t i o n a l c r e d i t h o u r s i n u p g r a d i n g t h e i r s k i l l s 53-3 , f AO 31. F The " o p e n " u n i v e r s i t y concept w i l l be imp lemented i n o r d e r t o r e a c h more non r e s i d e n t s t u d e n t s a t l e s s c o s t . 63.3 -A O J 2 . I n c r e a s e d f e e s t r u c t u r e w i l l r e s u l t i n f ewer s t u d e n t s b e i n g a b l e to a f f o r d u n i v e r s i t y t r a i n i n g J3» I n d u s t r y w i l l implement and f i n a n c e t r a i n i n g programs on ' u n i v e r s i t y campuses }*. Members o f p r o f e s s i o n a l o c c u p a t i o n s w i l l b e r e q u i r e d t h r o u g h l e g i s l a t i o n t o t ake " r e f r e s h e r " c o u r s e * a n n u a l l y 35. A l l u n i v e r s i t i e s w i l l make a l l d e g r e e programs a v a i l a b l e t h r o u g h p a r t t ime a t t e n d a n c e Rentage 10 76.6 36. U n i v e r s i t i e s w i l l e x t e n d pos t g r a d u a t e ( u n i v e r s i t y g r a d u a t iarj") educa t i o n t h r o u g h o u t the p r o v i n c e t h r o u g h a c o m b i n a t i o n o f j ( a ) c o r r e s p o n d e n c e and (b ) t r a v e l l i n g p r o f e s s o r s who w i l l h o l d week ly week end s e m i n a r s i n l e s s p o p u l a t e d a r e a s o f B . C . I 80 37. A d u l t educa t i on i n s t r u c t o r s f o r a l l f u l l t ime t e a c h i n g p o s i t i o n s w i l l r e q u i r e O e p t . o f E d . c e r t i f i c a t i o n 33. A u n i v e r s i t y d e p t . i n e d u c a t i o n w i l l be e s t a b l i s h e d whose s o l e f u n c t i o n w i l l be d e v o t e d t o r e s e a r c h i n the p r e s e n t and f u t u r e s t a t u s o f a d u l t e d u c a t i o n | I3 .3 33« A d u l t e d u c a t i o n w i l l r e c e i v e e q u a l r e c o g n i t i o n i n t e r m s o f f i n a n c i n g , c u r r i c u l u m , a d r a i n i s t r a t i o n , e t c . w i t h p u b l i c ' s c h o o l e d u c a t i o n I 63.3 .A O PA.RT. .WO. SAMPLE P> « "ON 1) POTENTIAL EVENTS OERIVEO FROU ROUND ONE 2 ) . YEAR BY WH I CH LIKELIHOOD . OF OCCURRENCE REACHES 5J!i (Write i n a year o r "nover") 3) LIKELIHOOD OF OCCURRENCE BY 198*: ( W r i t e i n a number f r o m 0 - 100}) «) PLFASE ESTIMATE THE CHANGE IN ADULT EDUCATION YOU WOULD EXPECT IF THE EVENT OCCURS BY MARK INC AN "X" IN ONE OF THE COLUMNS. (Please consider both d i rect and ind i rect e f f e c t s ) 5) FOR THOSE EVENTS WHICH YOU RATED AS "VERY GREAT" OR "GREAT" IN'COLUMN 4, PLEASE CESCRIBE THE NATURE OF THE CHANCES YOU ANTICIPATE. 1. 8 o a r d i n g f a c i l i t i e s on o r n e a r t h e campus w i l l be p r o v i d e d f o r e v e r y v o c a t l s n a l t r a i n i n g i n s t i t u t i o n . 2 . Ave rage number o f y e a r s o f e d u c a t I»n w i l l e x c e e d I3 y e a r s . 7o 3. Sem ina r s w i l l be o f f e r e d o n - t h e - j o b t o work ing o r s i n g l e p a r e n t s on t o p i c s s p e c i f i c t o c h a n g i n g work r o l e s o f mo ther s and f a t h e r s 4. A p r e - r e q u i s i t o to a t t a i n i n g a n a d m i n i s t r a t i v e po s t i n a d u l t e d u c a t i o n w i l l be a g r a d u a t e d e g r e e i n a d u l t e d . 3. O 2 © j>t /i -~ 1 <r-N fjf -n < _* J •2> 5. Pub l i e n i g h t s c h o o l s w i l l o f f e r g e n e r a l i n t e r e s t / n o n v o c a t i a n a l c o u r s e s o n l y 1) POTENTIAL EVENTS OERIVEO FROM ROUNO ONE 2). YEAfl BY WH 1 CH LIKELIHOOO OF OCCURRENCE REACHES 50J ( W r i t * i n a y e a r o r " n e v e r " ) 3) LIKELIHOOD OF OCCURREMCE BY 1584: ( W r i t e i n a number f rom 0 - l o o ; ) «) PLI'ASE ESTIMATE THE CHANGE IN ADULT EDUCATION YOU W0ULO EXPECT IF THE EVENT OCCURS BY HARKING AN "X" IN ONE Or THE COLUMNS. ( P l e a s e c o n s i d e r b o t h d i r e c t and i n d i r e c t e f f e c t s ) Very Great Great * U, XI •0 0 Slight • c 0 z 5) FOR THOSE EVENTS WHICH YOU RATED AS "VERY GREAT" OR "GREAT" IN COLUMN « , PLEASE DESCRIBE THE NATURE OF THE CHANGES YOU ANT IC IPATE . 1. V o c a t i o n a l t r a i n i n g w i l l be p r o v i d e d a t no c o s t t o e l l t h o s e who a r e u n e m p l o y e d . -2. F i n a n c i n g o f a l l v o c a t i o n a l ( a s opposed t o p r o f e s s i o n a l ) t r a i n i n g w i l l be a c c e p t e d a * an expense t o t h e f e d e r a l government r a t h e r t h a n the i n d i v i d u a l . 3. V o c a t i o n a l t r a i n i n g ( e . g . p lumb ing ) w i l l r e c e i v e e q u a l r e c o g n i t i o n i n t e r m * o f s o c i a l s t a t u s w i t h p r o f e s s i o n a l t r a i n i n g ( e . g . e n g i n e e r i n g ) . * * . V o c a t i o n a l t r a i n i n g w i l l be p r o v i d e d a t l o c a l l e v e l s r a t h e r than a t m a j o r c e n t r e s ( e . g . B . C . l . T . ) b y u s i n g upda ted d e l i v e r y sy s tems and m o b i l i z e d c l a s s r o o m s . 5» A l l e m p l o y e r s w i l l f i n d v a l u e i n a d u l t e d u c a t i o n a s a a anagement t o o l . -r 1) POTENTIAL EVENTS DERIVES FRQU ROUNO ONE 2 ) . YEAfl BY WHICH LIKELIHOOO OF OCCURRENCE REACHES 502 ( W r i t e i n a y e a r o r " n e v e r " ) 3) LIKELIHOOD CF OCCURRENCE 8Y : ( W r i t * i n a number f rom 0- 1002) « ) PL IF ( FASE ESTIMATE THE CHANGE IN ADULT EDUCATION YOU W0UL0 EXPECT THE EVENT OCCURS BY MARKING AN "X" IN ONE OF THE COLUMNS. P l e a s e c o n s i d e r bo th d j x t c i i n d i n d i r e c t e f f e c t s ) Very Great Great Uodera te •*-» JC cn »-* CO tt c 0 az 5) FOR THOSE EVENTS WHICH YOU RATED AS "VERY GREAT" OR "GREAT" IN COLUMN a , PLEASE DESCRIBE THE NATURE OF THE CHANGES YOU ANT IC IPATE . i» T h e r e w i l l be * 25>5 i n c r e a s e i n gov ernment make work p r o j e c t s ( e . g . L . I . P . , e t c . ) • • • 7. o f v o c a t i o n a l t r a i n i n g programs w i l l be c o - s p o n s o r e d between government end i n d u s t r y . 8. I n c r e a s e d c o s t o f l i v i n g (Consumer p r i c e index was 133.* i n 1J71 ba sed on l j k l u n i t o f 100) w i l l r e s u l t i n 50J o f f a m i l i e s b e i n g s u p p o r t e d by 2 i n c o m e » ( husband and w i f e ) . J . V o c a t i o n a l t r a i n i n g w i l l be e x t e n d e d on a c o m p u l s o r y b a s i s t o i n c l u d e a l l t h o s e who a r e unemployed but e m p l o y a b l e . » 10. A p o r t i o n o f the c u r r i c u l u m f o r a l l c h i l d r e n f rom K t o 12 w i l l be d e v o t e d s p e c i f i c a l l y t o l i f e l o n g l e a r n i n g , a s opposed t o e n d - g o a l o r i e n t e d e d u c a t i o n • o ^3 POTENTIAL EVENTS DERIVED FROU ROUNO ONE 2). YEAR BY WH 1 CH LIKELIHOOD OF OCCURRENCE REACHES ^02 [ W r i t e i n a y e a r o r " n e v e r " ) 3) LIKELIHOOD OF OCCURRENCE BY 198*: ( W r i t e i n 0 P U A S E ESTIMATE THE CHANGE IN AOULT EOUCATIGN YOU WOULD EXPECT IP |HE EVENT OCCURS BY MARKING AN " X " IN ONE OF THE COLUMNS. ( p ? f f i , r r r . n n l d . r bft*h djf^c^ and indi rect tfftcts) a number f rom 0- 1002} -** •a w i_ <J >* L. Great V «• u t; "O O 2S Slight • c 0 =£ 5) FOR THOSE EVENTS WHICH YOU RATED AS "VERY GREAT" OR "GREAT" IN COLUMN 4 , PLEASE DESCRIBE THE NATURE OF THE CHANGES YCU ANT IC IPATE . 1 1 . Compu l sory e d u c a t i o n w i l l end a t 14 y e a r s o f a g e . 12 . A l l employed p e r s o n s M i l l r e - e n t e r t h e t r a i n i n g a r e n a a t l e a s t once e v e r y 13. R e t i r e m e n t w i l l be c o m p u l s o r y i n • a l l employment a t 55 y * * r s o f a g e . 14. 252 ( a s compared w i t h 1?71 f i g u r e o f 502) more s t u d e n t s w i l l op t f o r community s e r v i c e , i n d u s t r i a 1 and c o m m e r c i a l programs i n h i g h s c h o o l . 15. T h e r e w i l l be a 302 i n c r e a s e In e n r o l m e n t i n t h e 30-** y e a r s age g roup i n a d . e d . p u b l i c n i g h t s c h o o l programs (beyond t h e n o r m a l i n c r e a s e t i e d t o p o p u l a t i o n ) . r 1) POTENTIAL EVENTS OERIVEO FROU ROUNO ONE 2 ) . YEAfl BY WH 1 CH LIKELIHOOD . OF OCCURRENCE REACHES 50? ( W r i t e i n a y e a r o r " n e v e r " ) 3) LIKELIHOOD OF OCCURRENCE BY 1384: ( W r i t e i n a number f rom 0 - 100* ) • 0 P L r A S E E S T I M A T E T H E C H A N G E IN A D U L T E D U C A T I O N YOU WOULD E X P E C T IF T H E E V E N T OCCURS 8Y H A R K I N G AN " X " IN O N E OF T H E COLUMNS. ( P l e a s e c o n s i d e r both d i r e c t and i n d i r e c t e f f e c t s ) •** * V e> > i 4) Great Moderate Slight c 0 5) FOR THOSE EVENTS WHICH YOU RATED AS "VERY GREAT" OR "GREAT" IN COLUMN 4 , PLEASE OESCRIBE THE NATURE OF THE CHANGES YCU ANT IC IPATE . l b . P r o v l n c i a l l y o p e r a t e d c h i l d c a r e c e n t r e s ( u n d e r 6) and d r o p i n c e n t r e s (o t o 12* ) w i l l be p r o v i d e d l o c a l l y o o n 17. A l l t r a i n i n g i n s t i t u t i o n s a s v o c a t i o n a l s c h o o l s w i l l p r o v i d e day c a r e f a c i l i t i e s on t h e p r e m i s e s . 1 8 . 50? o f the women i n t h e l a b o r f o r c e • w i l l h o l d p a r t t ime j o b s . 19. " R e f r e s h e r " c o u r s e s w i l l be made a v a i l a b l e t h r o u g h e m p l o y e r s f o r a l l women about t o r e - e n t e r the l ab o r f o r c e a f t e r an a b s e n c e o f 5 y e a r s * . ' ' 20. 25$ o f p a r e n t s w i t h s c h o o l age c h i l d r e n w i l l be ' • i n g l e * p a r e n t s . -r 1) POTENTIAL EVENTS OERIVEO FROM ROUND ONE 2 ) . YEAR BY WH 1 CH L iKEL lHOOD OF OCCURRENCE REACHES 50i ( W r i t e i n a y e a r o r " n e v e r r * ) 3) LIKELIHOOD OF OCCURRENCE BY 1384: ( W r i t e i n a number f r om 0- 100$) « ) PLFASE ESTIMATE THE CHANGE IN ADULT EDUCATION YOU WOULD EXPECT IF THE EVENT OCCURS 8Y MARKING AN " X " IN ONE OF THE COLUMNS. ( P l e a s e c o n s i d e r bo th d i r e c t and i n d i r e c t e f f e c t s ) i V V. O L. V » Great V -0 0 •a Slight c 0 2: 5) FOR THOSE EVENTS WHICH YOU RATED AS "VERY GREAT" OR "GREAT" IN COLUMN 4 , PLEASE DESCRIBE THE NATURE OF THE CHANGES-YOU ANT IC IPATE . 21. 25$ o f » s u b c u l t u r a l * g r o u p s ( t . g . s i n g l e , p a r e n t s , p o o r , t h e o l d , t h e e c o n o m i c a l l y , p h y s i o l o g i c a l l y o r e d u c a t i o n a l l y d i s a d v a n t a g e d , e t c . ) w i l l be r e a c h e d th rough a d . e d . s e r v i c e s . • 2 2 . A l l o r g a n i z e d c o m m u n i t i e s w i l l p r o v i d e f r e e " n e i g h b o u r h o o d " c o u n s e l l i n g s e r v i c e s and program p l a n n i n g f o r a l l a d u l t s who d e s i r e them r e g a r d i n g u p g r a d i n g t h e i r e d u c a t i o n . 23. A l l e d . e d . s e r v i c e s w i l l be a d m i n i s t e r e d under the R e c r e a t i o n d e p a r t m e n t . -2 4 . Community s c h o o l s w i l l d e v e l o p u n d e r the a d m i n i s t r a t i o n o f t h e p u b l i c s c h o o l s y s tem w i t h a d . e d , a d m i n i s t r a t i v e p e r s o n n e l . 25. 50} o f o r g a n i z e d c o m m u n i t i e s w i l l c o - o r d i n a t e and a d m i n i s t e r a l l a d . e d . s e r v i c e s w i t h i n t h e i r a r e a . • r 1) POTENTIAL EVENTS DERIVED FROU ROUND ONE 2 ) , YEAfl 6Y WH 1 CH LIKELIHOOD OF OCCURRENCE REACHES 5J# ( W r i t e In a y e a r o r " n e v e r " ) 3) LIKELIHOOD OF OCCURRENCE BY 1934: ( W r i t e i n a number f rom 0- 100* ) PLFASE ESTIMATE THE CHANGE IN AOULT EDUCATION YOU W0ULO EXPECT IF THE EVENT OCCURS BY MARKING AN "X " IN ONE OF THE COLUMNS. ( P l e a s e c o n s i d e r bo th d i r e c t and i n d i r e c t e f f e c t s ) Very Great Great Moderate , Slight None 5) ' FOR THOSE EVENTS WHICH YOU RATED AS "VERY GREAT" OR "GREAT" IN COLUMN A , PLEASE DESCRIBE THE NATURE OF THE CHANGES YCU A N T I C I P A T E . 2&. o f s c h o o l s ( e l e m e n t a r y and s e c o n d a r y ) w i l l encou rage community p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n b o t h f o r m a l and i n f o r m a l programs a f t e r s c h o o l , i n the e v o n i n j , and on weekends . 27. A f u l l t ime n i g h t s c h o o l d i r e c t o r ( p u b l i c n i g h t s c h o o l ) i n each s c h o o l d i s t r i c t o f f e r i n g n i g h t s c h o o l c o u r s e s w i l l be a p p o i n t e d . 2 8 . I n - s e r v i c e a d . e d . t e a c h i n g t e c h n i o u e s w i l l be p r o v i d e d f o r a l l e d u c a t o r s i n community c o l l e g e s t e a c h i n g a d u l t s . 23. M i n i c o u r s e s i n a d . e d . t e a c h i n g t e c h n i o u e s w i l l be o f f e r e d f o r a l l v o c a t i o n a l a n d / o r t e c h n i c a l a d . e d . i n s t r u c t o r s t e a c h i n g a d u l t s . * 30, M i n i c o u r s e s i n a d . e d . t e a c h i n g t e c h n i o u e s w i l l be o f f e r e d f o r a d . e d . i n s t r u c t o r s t e a c h i n g a c a d e m i c s u b j e c t s t o a d u l t s . 1) POTENTIAL EVENTS DERIVED FRO¥ ROUND ONE 2). YEAfl BY WH 1 CH LIKELIHOOD . OF OCCURRENCE REACHES 5J)£ ( W r i t e i n a y e a r o r " n e v e r ' ' ) 3) LIKELIHOOO OF OCCURRENCE BY 1 S 8 * : ( W r i t e i n a number f rom 0 - 1002) 0 PLTASE ESTIMATE THE CHANGE IN ADULT EDUCATION YOU W0ULO EXPECT IF THE EVENT OCCURS BY MARKING AN " X " IN ONE OF THE COLUMNS. ( P l e a s e c o n s i d e r bo th d i r e c t and i n d i r e c t e f f e c t s ) -—* «. 41 k. C3 >• L. 41 Great O •*•» «J L . V TJ O Slight « c 0 5) FOR THOSE EVENTS WHICH YOU RATEO AS "VERY GREAT" OR "GREAT" IN COLUMN A , PLEASE 0ESCRI9E THE NATURE OF THE CHANGES YCU A N T I C I P A T E . 31. Community c o l l e g e s w i l l p r o v i d e r e g i o n a l a d m i n i s t r a t i v e s t a f f t o c o -o r d i n a t e n i g h t s c h o o l a c t i v i t i e s w i t h c o l l e g e a c t i v i t i e s . 32. C o - o r d i n a t i o n o f a d u l t e d u c a t i o n s e r v i c e s a t the r e g i o n a l and l o c a l l e v e l w i l l be i n s t i t u t e d under t h e a u s p i c e s o f the Dep t . o f E d u c a t i o n . 33* 5C? ° f a d m i n i s t r a t i v e r o l e s i n a l l a d . e d . ( p u b l i c n i g h t s c h o o l , c o l l e g e s and u n i v e r s i t y ) w i l l be e l i m i n a t e d i n f a v o r of community c o - o p e r a t i o n and i n d i v i d u a l p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n d e c i s i o n mate i n g . 3*. A c o - o r d i n a t o r o f a d . e d . s e r v i c e s w i l l be a p p o i n t e d p r o v i n c i a l l y t h r o u g h t h e D e p t . o f E d u c a t i o n , '> 35. Host ad. e d . a d m i n i s t r a t o r s w i l l r e c e i v e o n - t h e - j o b t r a i n i n g . • r POTENTIAL EVENTS OERIVEO FROU ROUND ONE 2 ) . YEAR BY WH 1 CH LIKELIHOOD OF OCCURRENCE REACHES £ 0 j ! ( W r i t e i n a y e a r o r " n e v e r " ) 3) LIKELIHOOD OF OCCURRENCE BY 1984• ( W r i t e i n a number f r o m 0 - 100$) PL fASE ESTIMATE THE CHANGE IN A0ULT EDUCATION YOU WOULD EXPECT IF THE EVENT OCCURS BY MARKING AN " X " IN ONE OF THE COLUMNS. ( P l e a s e c o n s i d e r both d i r e c t and I n d i r e c t e f f e c t s ) i Very Great t> u 0 V •*-» « L. V "O 0 Slight None 5) FOR THOSE EVENTS WHICH YOU RATED AS "VERY GREAT" OR "GREAT" IN COLUMN 4 , PLEASE 0ESCRI8E THE NATURE OF THE CHANGES YOU A N T I C I P A T E . 50J o f o p e r a t i n g c o s t s o f n i g h t s c h o o l programs w i l l be p r o v i d e d t h r o u g h p r o v i n c i a l f u n d s . • 37* Community c o l l e g e s w i l l a b s o r b 2 5 } o f p r e s e n t p u b l i c s c h o o l a d . c d . a d m i n i s t r a t o r s . 38. Community c o l l e g e s w i l l t a k e o v e r f u n c t i o n o f a l l p u b l i c n i g h t s c h o o l s y s t e m s . 39* Community c o l l e g e s w i l l have " b r a n c h e s ? i n e v e r y community In B . C . w i t h a p o p u l a t i o n o f 1 0 , 0 0 0 * . 4 0 . Community c o l l e g e s w i l l t a k e o v e r v o c a t i o n a l and a c a d e m i c f u n c t i o n s o f p r e s e n t n i g h t s c h o o l s y s t e m . li * 1) POTENTIAL EVENTS OERIVEO FROU ROUND ONE 2). YEAR 8Y WH 1 CH LIKELIHOOD OF OCCURRENCE REACHES j0$ ( w r i t e i n a y e a r o r " n e v e r " ) 3) LIKELIHOOD Or OCCURRENCE BY 1 S 8 4 : ( W r i t e i n a number f rom 0 - 100?) 0 PLrASE ESTIMATE THE CHANGE IN ADULT E0UCATI0N YOU W0ULO EXPECT IF THE EVENT OCCURS BY MARKING AN " X " IN ONE OF THE COLUMNS. ( P l e a s e c o n s i d e r b o t h d i r e c t and i n d i r e c t e f f e c t s ) •»» Kf V L, O U, V :- Great •a V -0 0 a; —J JZ 0 —4 CO 0 c 0 5) • FOR THOSE EVENTS WHICH YOU RATED AS "VERY GREAT" OR "GREAT" IN COLUMN 4 , PLEASE 0ESCRIBE THE NATURE OF THE CHANGES YCU ANT IC IPATE . 4 1 , A l l c o l l e g e s , s c h o o l d i s t r i c t a d . e d . and r e c r e a t i o n commi s s i on s w i l l c o -o r d i n a t e t h e i r a c t i v i t i e s t o a v o i d o v e r l a p o f s e r v i c e s . 4 2 . 50$ o f p u b l i c s c h o o l s w i f f o f f e r a c a d e m i c o r v o c a t i o n a l / t e c h n i c a l c o u r s e s f o r a d u l t s d u r i n g the day t i m e . -43. A l l a d . e d . a c t i v i t i e s w i l l be a s h a r e d r e s p o n s i b i l i t y between pub l i e ' n i g h t s c h o o l s and community c o l l e g e s . -4 4 . F a c i l i t i e s ( e q u i p m e n t , e t c . ) f o r voc-a t i o n a l t r a i n i n g i n a t l e a s t 10 d i f f e r e n t v o c a t i o n a l a r e a s w i l l be p r o v i d e d f o r day and p u b l i c n i g h t s c h o o l use in, a l l j u n i o r and s e n i o r s e c o n d a r y s c h o o l s . 45. I n s t i t u t i o n s w i l l be e s t a b l i s h e d • t o o f f e r ' p a r a p r o f e s s i o n a l ' t r a i n i n g in a l l a r e a s o f p r o f e s s i o n a l work , e . g . l a w , m e d i c i n e , t e a c h i n g , e t c . r POTENTIAL EVENTS DERIVED FROU ROUND ONE 2 ) . YEAR BY WHICH LIKELIHOOO . OF OCCURRENCE REACHES _5_0? ( W r i t * i n a y e a r o r " n e v e r " ) 3) LIKELIHOOD OF OCCURRENCE BY l J S A : ( W r i t e i n a number f r om 0- 1002) <} PLTASE ESTIMATE THE CHANGE IN AOULT EOUCATION YOU WOULD EXPECT IF THE EVENT OCCURS BY MARKING AN " X " IN ONE OF THE COLUMNS. ( P l e a s e c o n s i d e r b o t h d i r e c t and i n d i r e c t e f f e c t s ) 5) FOR THOSE EVENTS WHICH YOU RATEO AS "VEflY GREAT" OR "GREAT" IN COLUMN 4 , PLEASE 0ESCRI3E THE NATURE OF THE CHANGES YOU ANT IC IPATE . 4t>. S p e c i f i c on the j o b programs w i l l b e d e v e l o p e d to a l l e v i a t e b oredom i n t e d i o u s o r r e p e t i t i o u s i n d u s t r i a l o r f a c t o r y j o b s . 47» Community c o l l e g e s w i l l p r o v i d e • p a r a ' p r o f e s s i o n a l t r a i n i n g in s e l e c t e d a r e a s o f p r o f e s s i o n a l work ( e . g . t e a c h i n g , e n g i n e e r i n g , e t c . ) 4 8 . 50J o f a l l a d u l t s i n the p r o v i n c e ( 1 8 y e a r s * ) w i l l r e t u r n t o pe s t s e c o n d a r y i n s t i t u t i o n s f o r s h o r t 6 month t o 1 y e a r t r a i n i n g programs a t l e a s t once In t h e i r l i f e t i m e s . <3« The p r i m a r y f u n c t i o n o f community c o l l e g e s w i l l be to o f f e r b a s i c e d u c a t i o n f o r h i g h s c h o o l c o m p l e t i o n , m in i c o u r s e * wh ich w i l l s e r v e as a c a d e m i c b r idge ' s between h . s . and u n i v e r s i t y , and non a c a d e m i c and v o c . t r a i n i n q to p t . t ime s t d J O . Community c o l l e g e s w i l l become " u m b r e l l a " i n s t i t u t i o n s p r o v i d i n g f o r a l l e c o n o m i c a l l y f e a s i b l e l o c a l a d u l t e d u c a t i o n n e e d s . 1} POTENTIAL EVENTS OERIVEO FROU ROUNO ONE 2 ) . YEA7? BY WH 1 CH LIKELIHOOD Or OCCURRENCE REACHES $0g ( W r i t e tn a y e a r o r " n e v e r " ) 3) LIKELIHOOD OF OCCURRENCE BY 1 3 3 4 : ( W r i t e i n a number f r om 0- 100$) PLfASE ESTIMATE THE CHANGE IN ADULT EDUCATION YOU WOULD EXPECT IF THE EVENT OCCURS BY MARKING AN "X " IN ONE OF THE COLUMNS. ( P l e a s e c o n s i d e r b o t h d i r e c t and i n d i r e c t e f f e c t s ) j Very Great < *> l_ O L, V *o 0 Slight None 5) FOR THOSE EVENTS WHICH YOU RATED AS "VERY GREAT" OR "GREAT" IN COLUMN * , PLEASE DESCRIBE THE NATURE CF THE CHANCES YCU ANT IC IPATE . 51. Community c o l l e g e s w i l l expand to embrace * y e a r u n i v e r s i t y u n d e r g r a d u a t e p r o g r a m s . • 52. A l l employees w i l l r e c e i v e i n c e n t i v e bonuses ba sed on e d u c a t i o n a l c r e d i t hou r s i n u p g r a d i n g t h e i r s k i l l s . 53. Community c o l l e g e s and i n d u s t r y w i l l " s h a r e " p e r s o n n e l i n o r d e r t h a t c o l l e g e s can p r o v i d e job t r a i n i n g f a c i l i t i e and programs s u i t ab l e f o r c h a n g i n g employment needs i n i n d u s t r y . 5*. A l l employees who need r e - t r a i n i n g t c c a r r y on t h e i r j o b s w i l l be p a i d b y t h e i r e m p l o y e r s a t the same wage l e v e l d u r i n g t h e i r r e - t r a i n i n g p e r i o d . / 55* E m p l o y e r s w i l l s p o n s o r a l l r e - e d u c -a t i o n o r r e t r a i n i n g programs f o r t h e i r ' e m p l o y e e s a t n i g h t s c h o o l f a c i l i t i e s ( p u b l i c o r p r i v a t e ) • f i 1 ! L. . ! 1 1) POTENTIAL EVENTS DERIVED FROa ROUND ONE 2 ) . YEAR BY WHICH LIKELIHOOO CF OCCURRENCE REACHES 50? ( W r i t e In a y e a r o r " n e v e r " ) 3) LIKELIHOOD OF OCCURRENCE SY 1584: ( W r i t e i n a number f r om 0 - ICO*) 0 PLFASE ESTIMATE THE CHANGE IN AOULT EOUCATION YOU WOULD EXPECT IF THE EVENT OCCURS BY MARKING AN " X " IN ONE OF THE COLUMNS. ( P l e z s e c o n s i d e r bo th d i r e c t and I n d i r e c t e f f e c t s ) *> u 0 >» L. V Great L t> TJ O ZZ 1 JC o*> •"-« CO 0 c 0 z 5) ' FOR THOSE EVENTS WHICH YOU RATED AS "VERY GREAT" OR "GREAT" IN COLUMN 4, PLEASE DESCRIBE THE NATURE OF THE CHANGES YOU ANT IC IPATE . 5&. 25? o f new j o b s o f f e r e d w i l l i n c l u d e a p p r e n t i c e s h i p o r o n - t h e - j o b t r a i n i n g . 157» U n i v e r s i t y ( o r c o l l e g e ) i n s t r u c t o r s w i l l t r a v e l ( ba sed on e d u c a t i o n a l needs o f i n d i v i d u a l c o m m u n i t i e s ) r a t h e r than s t u d e n t s . -58. The " o p e n " u n i v e r s i t y " c o n c e p t w i l l be imp lemented i n o r d e r t o r e a c h s o r e non r e s i d e n t s t u d e n t s a t l e s s c o s t . 53. Non B . C . r e s i d e n t s ( r e s i d e n c y o f l e s s than one y e a r ) w i l l pay a h i g h e r f e e a t u n i v e r s i t y than r e s i d e n t s . Members o f p r o f e s s i o n a l o c c u p a t i o n s w i l l be r e q u i r e d t h r o u g h l e g i s l a t i o n to t a k e p a r t t ime' " r e f r e s h e r " c o u r s e s a n n u a l l y . 7 POTENTIAL EVENTS OERIVEO FROM ROUNO ONE 2 ) , YEAR BY WHICH L i;<EL i'HCOD OF OCCURRENCE REACHES 5_0j£ ( W r i t e i n a y e a r o r " n e v e r " ) 3) L IVEL IHOOD Or OCCURRENCE BY 1584: ( W r i t e i n *) P L r A S E ESTIMATE THE CHANGE IN AOULT EDUCATION YOU WOULD EXPECT IF THE EVENT OCCURS SY MARKING AN " X " IN ONE OF THE COLUMNS. ( P l a a s e c o n s i d e r bo th d i r e c t and I n d i r e c t a f f e c t s ) a number f rom 0- 100$) ftS l_ >% L. to V t-0 Moderate Slight c 5) FOR THOSE EVENTS WHICH YOU RATED AS "VERY GREAT" OR "GREAT" IN COLUMN 4 , PLEASE OESCRIBE THE NATURE OF THE CHANGES YOU A N T I C I P A T E . 6 l . A l l u n i v e r s i t i e s w i l l make a l l u n d e r g r a d u a t e deg ree programs a v a i l a b l e t h r o u g h p a r t t ims a t t e n d a n c e . 1 ^2. U n i v e r s i t i e s w i l l e x t e n d po s t g r a d u a t e ( u n i v e r s i t y g r a d u a t i o n ) e d u c a t i o n t h r o u g h o u t the p r o v i n c e t h r o u g h a c o m b i n a t i o n o f ( a ) c o r r e s p o n o c n c e and (b ) t r a v e l l i n g p r o f e s s o r s who w i l l h o l d week ly week end s e m i n a r s in l e s s p o p u l a t e d a r e a s of B . C . • ^3- 5 ^ o f u n d e r g r a d u a t e u n i v e r s i t y d e g r e e programs w i l l be o f f e r e d " o f f campus" t o any B . C . r e s i d e n t who has t h e p r e - r e q u i s i t e e d u c a t i o n a l b a c k g r o u n d . A p r e r e q u i s i t e t o a l l employment w i l be c l a u s e s writ£«,'.*< i r . t s a l l worksftj a g r e a m c n i s t h a t u p g r a d i n g o r r e t r a i n i n g w i l l be o f f e r e d to a l l t h o s e whos i p o s i t i o n s a r e phased out t h r o u g h t e c h -n o l o g i c a l p r o g r e s s . 1 : 1 1 ! 1 -r -5. CD Shown a r t the upper & l ower q u a r t i l e s f r o m the p r e v i o u s r o u n d and your e s t i m a t e i n r e d . ' A f t e r e v a l u a t i n g t h e r e a s o n s * p l e a s e r e - c s t i m a t ] y o u r c u r v e . Med ian e s t i -mates o f the E x p e r t 4 t he Q u i t e K a m i l j a j s u b g r o u p s Reasons g i v e n by the p a n e l ( p l e a s e add f u r t h e r rj r e a s o n s i f t h e y o c c u r to you) V i r t u a l l y i m p o s s i b l e L i t t l e o r no e f f e c t A pr ime f a c t o r SAMPLE INJ i RISP „IN yet-i±->±H f-i-H-4-•u - f r l - ! - f -j I ! | j 5 3 J 111 J F T T i ? t ! 1 i ! i I ! 1 I i I G J j I j l T | ' " ! T i j " T !_i-Lia.jlTTn 1 i H h h W i l l be a n e c e s s i t y t o keep up w i t h co s t o f l i v i n g r i s e Un ion c o n t r o l w i l l b ecorae s t r o n g e r e ^ i Wigs f r e e z e w i l l be imposed D e p r e s s i o n w i l l be i n e v i t a b l e Shown a r t t h * uppe r 4 l ower q u a r t i l e s f r o m the p r e v i o u s round and ynrr e s t i m a t e i n r e d . , A f t e r e v a l u a t i n g the r e a s o n s * p l e a s * r c - e s t i m a y o u r c u r v e . 1 M l SAT-j OJ-ilt INCREASE. .IN L43 0R. FORCE. Med ian e s t i -mates o f the = E x p e r t 4 t h e j Q u i t e F a m i l i a t s u b g r o u p s Reasons g i v e n by the p a n e l ( p l e a s * add f u r t h e r r e a s o n s i f t h e y o c c u r to you) V i r t u a l l y i m p o s s i b l e L i t t l e o r no e f f e c t A pr ime f a c t o r INDICATOR TWO: CHANGE IN AQE GROUP DI ST* I B'UTN i l i a n With a s h o r t e r work week more p e o p l e w i l l be e m p l o y e d , e s p e c i a l l y women T h e r e w i l l be i n c r e a s e d s e c o n d a r y p r o d u c t i o n ba sed on p r i m a r y i n d u s t r y M a r g i n a l f a rm employment w i l l become p r o p o r t i o n a t e l y l e s s impor t an t i n o v e r a l l employment p i c t u r e a s t e r t i a r y i n d u s t r y d e v e l o p s . Immig ra t i on The p i l l Day c a r e Is-Many unemployed are unemployable HlSLh Population Increase generally Reduction of number of children per family Post war b aby bulge moving through the overall figures Shown a r t thg uppe r 4 l ower q u a r t i l e s f r o m the p r e v i o u s r o u n d and y p " r e s t i m a t e i n r e d . *• A f t e r e v a l u a t i n g the r e a s o n s * p l e a s o r e - e s t i m a y o u r c u r v e . Med ian e s t i -mates o f the • E x p e r t 4 t h e Q u i t e r a a i l i a s u b g r o u p s • Reasons g i v e n by the p a n e l ( p l e a s e add f u r t h e r r e a s o n s i f t h e y o c c u r to you) V i r t u a l l y i m p o s s i b l e L i t t l e o r no e f f e c t A pr ime f a c t o r T. a. H i g h More women w i l l p a r t i c i p a t e i n l a b o r market a s t r e n d toward impor tance o f ( a ) r o l e a s homemaker and (b ) o f f a m i l y a s a u n i t d e c r e a s e s Number o f f e m a l e s employed w i l l i n c r e a s e to a p o i n t more c l o s e l y a l i g n e d w i th n o . a v a i l a b l e t o work G r e a t e r a c c e p t a n c e o f f e m a l e s w o r k i n g in i n d u s t r y •. D e s i r e f o r s e l f f u l f i l l m e n t o u t s i d e the home B e t t e r f a m i l y p l a n n i n g C o n c e r t e d e f f o r t s o f S t a t u s o f Uomen g roups Most women w i l l r e - e n t e r l a b o r f o r c e a f t e r r a i s i n g f a m i l i e s Too f e s p a r t t ime j ob s a v a i l a b l e D r a s t i c change to the more t r a d i t i o n a l f a m i l y u n i t Hjjjh ( V a n c o u v e r ) Vancouver w i l l m a i n t a i n i t s p r e s e n t p e r c e n t a g e o f t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n i n c r e a s e H i qh ( R o s s l a n d ) Many s m a l l communi t ie s have growth p a t t e r n s e x c e e d i n g Vancouver S h i f t to s u r b u r b a n o r t o r u r a l r e s i d e n t i a l l i v i n g w i t h urban work A sense o f " commun i t y " w i l l b e f o s t e r e d i n a l l a r e a s , r e s u l t i n g i n s t a b i l i z i n g of p o p u l a t i o n s ag a r e s u l t o f Human R e s o u r c e s Board R e g i o n a l d i s t r i c t s w i l l e x e r t g r e a t e r i n f l u e n c e and c o n t r o l b r i n g i n g about some u rb a n i z a t i o n to r u r a l a r e a s R u r a l p o p u l a t i o n s w i l l s h i f t f rom one s m a l l community t o a n o t h e r Shown a r e the upper 4 l ower q u a r t i l e s f r om t h e p r e v i o u s round and y^y.r e s t i m a t e i n r e d . • A f t e r e v a l u a t i n g the r e a s o n s * p l e a s e r c - e s t ima t! y o u r c u r v e . J—• rf—i—i—1—r-r-r-f-i i ' i i i ' i i i—i i t" i i-i 1" r - i—f-t -P - v - rP Median e s t i -mates o f the [« E x p e r t 4 t h e Q u i t e F a m i l i a subg roups I T i - p r r j / i j j ! j rrr l INDICATOR S!<| / ADMINISTRATOR? IN PUDLIC N.S. Reasons g i v e n by t h e p a n e l ( p l e a s e add f u r t h e r r e a s o n s i f t h e y o c c u r to you) V i r t u a l l y i m p o s s i b l e t i t t l e o r no e f f e c t A p r i n e f a c t o r S c h o o l d i s t r i c t a d . e d . i s more e c o n o m i c a l and more e f f i c i e n t t o o p e r a t e than any o t h e r sys tem o f » d . e d . A c o l l e g e s e r v i n g many d i s t r i c t s c a n n , t be a s e f f e c t i v e as l o c a l o r s c h o o l d i s t r i c t c o n t r o l . R e s u l t o f p o p u l a t i o n i n c r e a s e Demand f o r c o u r s e s b eyond r e g u l a r s c h o o l h o u r s \ w i l l i n c r e a s e , w h i l e the t r a d i t i o n a l J t o 3 a p p r ach i s d i s c r e d i t e d C r i t e r i a d i c t a t i n g the number o f i n s t r u c t o r s i s e c o n o m i c a l . When p u b l i c a t t i t u d e s u p p o r t s more i n s t r u c t o r s they w i l l be a p p o i n t e d k&w Community c o l l e g e s w i l l c o n t i n u e to a b s o r b s c h o o l d i s t r i c t programs Ulan A d . e d . i s becoming more o f a l i f e s t y l e in t h e p r o v i n c e Dept . o f E d . w i l l t a k e a renewed i n t e r e s t in l o c a l c o n t r o l E x p a n s i o n o f r e s p o n s i b i l i t y f rom s t r i c t l y a d . e d . t o i n c l u d e c o - o r d i n a t i o n of community s c h o o l s . tow Community c o l l e g e s w i l l a b s o r b a number of e x i s t i n g a d m i n i s t r a t o r s C o - o p e r a t i o n b etween a g e n c i e s a d m i n i s t e r i n g a d . e d . w i l l a l l o w f o r a s m a l l e r t ime a l l o t m e n t f r om a d m i n i s t r a t o r s t o a d , e d . a c t i v i t i e s At p r e s e n t t h e r e a r e a r e s t r i c t e d number o f a d m i n i s t r a t i v e o p p o r t u n i t i e s Shown a r e the upper 4 l ower q u a r i i l e s f r om the Med ian e s t i -p r e v i o u s r ound and VOJJX e s t i m a t e i n r e d . mates o f the A f t e r e v a l u a t i n g the r e a s o n s , p l e a s o r e - e s t i m a t c E x p e r t & t h e , y o u r c u r v e , j Q u i t e F a m i l i a r ! ; s ubg roups * ' I S O * T.LU !.! Reasons g i v e n by the p a n e l ( p l e a s e add f u r t h e r r e a s o n s i f t hoy o c c u r to you) V i r t u a l l y i m p o s s i b l e - L i t t l e o r no e f f e c t ->r - x l A p r i a * f a c t o  •? /ol .LDZ ±t± H ± TFt-H Irtzmtt Ithtrrrt-ft 1 1 1 7 i tND ?» f f.RO-LWIS. POST ^ c n , . N i i a a i I U ^ , r j X H - - i L B T £ ! i : ' ; ' i ' . ' i . r j 3iti±m-Hl[fri--Hflli±i High. R e g i o n a l d i s t r i c t s d i f f e r and each i n s t i t u t i o n o f f e r s ] c o u r s e s t o meet community n e e d s / d e s i r e s w i t h i n the r e s u r c e s o f t h a t i n s t i t u t i o n Community c o l l e g e s , wi i l i n c r e a s i n g l y a d m i n i s t e r B o r e o f t o t a l a d . e d . programs S c h o o l d i s t r i c t s w i l l c o n t i n u e to amalgamate U l t i m a t e l y t r e n d w i l l be d e c i d e d on an economic b a s i s . If e d u c . tax i s removed f rom the l a n d t h e n t h e r e w i l l be l e s s c o n c e r n a s to who does the j ob Mjjh T e c h n o l o g i c a l change w i l l demand more s p e c i a l i z e d t r a i n i n g Community c o l l e g e s w i l l c o n t i n u e t h e i r r o l e as o f f e r i n g p r e p a r a t i o n f o r a d v a n c e d u n i v e r s i t y t r a i n i n g k&w ro Shown a r « the upper 4 l ower q u a r t i l e s f r om the Med ian p r e v i o u s r ound and yo» r est i rr -ate i n r e d . ' mates o A f t e r e v a l u a t i n g t h e rcasor.s> p l e a s e r e - c s t ima iU E x p e r t y o u r C u r v e , j Q u i t e i Kubg.-ou _ - i u j . . _ C 0 U . F . g?s jiT'i : ' ' M i J 'T ' i TT i •"•""33 e s t i -f t h e 4 the ar.ii I i i Reasons g i v e n by the p a n e l ( p l e a s o add f u r t h e r r e a s o n s i f t hey o c c u r to you) V i r t u a l l y i m p o s s i b l e L i t t l e o r no e f f e c t A pr ime f a c t o r 'NP1C. J i . S . E^»"lMT..4-TXC.HJM£^S.CJiQ,g.ljS. ' I f f f l jTir,! j T ' ! " ? T " | " H " ( ~ f " f " T } t i T-I i i H L g h ' I n c r e a s e d l e i s u r e w i l l a l l o w a d u l t s to l e a r n f o r I n t e r e s t r a t h e r than income s e c u r i t y Enhanced r e p u t a t i o n a t community c o l l e g e s f o r a cademic e x c e l l e n c e Lower f e e s t r u c t u r e C r e a t i o n o f more new c o l l e g e s w i l l p r o v i d e g r e a t e r a c i d e m i a o p p o r t u n i t y C o l l e g e a c t w i l l put the c o l l e g e s on a f i r m e r b a s i s Low Academic c o u r s e s w i l l not b e d e g r e e o r job o r i e n t e d Most a r e a s i n the p r o v i n c e do not have t h i s c o l l e g e f a c i l i t y C o l l e g e s w i l l c o n t i n u e to a t t r a c t p a r t t ime s t u d e n t s i n t o a v a r i e t y o f programs Hi jh S p e c i a l i z a t i o n w i l l l e a d many to upgrade f o r employsb i l i t y C o l l e g e s po s se s s b e t t e r t r a i n i n g o p p o r t u n i t i e s t han s c h o o l d i s t r i c t s dob i n c e n t i v e s w i l l encourage e d u c a t i o n a l upgra d i ng I n c r e a s e d t e c h n o l o g y and i n c r e a s e d number i n l a b o r f o r c e R e l a t e d to av a i l a b i l i t y o f r e s o u r c e s , p e o p l e , and e q u i p m e n t . As f a c i l i t i e s grow ( p a r t i c u l a r l y in s m a l l e r ' o u t o f the way* d i s t r i c t s ) wo w i l l en ro lment More s p e c i a l p r o j e c t u p g r a d i n g o n - t h e - j o b in company t ! ' « e , bo th in p u b l i c and p r i v a t e s e c t o r o f a d . ed Uw Employees w i l l be e x p e c t e d to " q u a l i f y " ' f o r h i g h e r Shown a r e tha upper & l ower quar t i l e a f r om the p r e v i o u s r o u n d and y-,i• r e s t i m a t e i n r e d . ' A f t e r e v a l u a t i n g the r e a s o n s , p l e a s e r e - e s t i m a y o u r c u r v e . M e oI a n e s t i -mates o f t h a * E x p e r t 4 t he Q u i t e F a m i l i a r ] s ubg roups V<TA A 1NP. V-l. FULL T l ^ UH»VSR?>TY_rNP.nM^H rO"-i-4 ^ JO: Ti IC J i «i / » ! : 0 : o M l T1-T-r j - r Ti i T T~rrr i-LL T T T - r r xi:t T T "CI |v;i;t! T T - U -T T T -H+ 1J-4-L1 id -H m-J_1_L Reasons g i v e n by t h e p a n e l ( p l e a s e add f u r t h e r r e a s o n s i f t h e y o c c u r t o you) V i r t u a l l y i m p o s s i b l e L i t t l e o r no e f f e c t A prlae f ac to r -3, ], j , I t!±!i.h O p e r a t i n g c o s t s w i l l r i s e , w h i l e number o f g r a d u a t e s w i l l d e c r e a s e I n f l a t i o n and an i r f c r ca s i n g /demand f o r the b e s t o f equipment P r o p o r t i o n o f t o t a l money a l l o c a t e d . f o r e d u c a t i o n w i l l become more c o n s t a n t L e s s enpha.sis on e x p a n s i o n o f b u i l d i n g s , pe r s e , and rcore emphas i s on " r e c y c l i n g " o f p r e s e n t f a c i l i t i e s The c e n t r a l i z e d i n s t i t u t i o n c o n c e p t i s r a p i d l y d e c r c a s i ng Community c o l l e g e s w i l l r e c e i v e i n c r e a s i n g l y l a r g e r amounts o f p r o v i n c i a l f u n d i n g f o r post s e c o n d a r y ed'jc-i t ton More emphas i s on p e o p l e than o n s t r u c t u r e s P e i p l e w i l l d e s i r e t r a i n i n g i n t h e i r own l o c a l e P r e s e n t p u b l i c image o f the " a v e r a g e u n i v e r s i t y s t u d s n t U n i v e r s i t y p o l i c i e s must expand to i n c l u d e t o t a l c o v e r a g e i n the p r o v i n c e T i e d to p o p u l a t i o n i n c r e a s e , a l t h o u g h u n i v e r s i t i e s have l o s t a g r e a t d e a l o f t h e i r a p p e a l to the young U n i v e r s i t y c o n c e p t has become i r r e l e v a n x to l a r g e K i s s e s o f the p o p u l a t i o n V o c a t i o n a l , t e c h n o l o g i c a l and c a r e e r programs w i l l b e more in demand Shown a r c the upper 4 l i e s frofs th* ! "cdiar; es t i previous round and ^i-- estimate' ir. r e d . ' j mates of th Af ter evaluating t h * r c a s o r o . please r c - c s t i.'.ii ii'.- E x p e r t i t your curve . j Quite r a a i i . j subarouos Seasons given by J the panel I (please add fur ther •• reasons i f they occur t o you) V i r t u a l l y i m p o s s i b l e L i t t l e o r no e f f e c t A pr ime f a c t o r H L l h I n d u s t r i a l denand f o r t r a i n e d p e r s o n n e l Many tsors w i l l e n t e r the f i e l d as a d . e d . g a i n s r e c o g n i t i o n and t h e number o f o f f e r i n g s i n c r e a s e Law t h e i n i t i a l i n e r t i a a g a i n s t t r a i n e d a d u l t e d u c a t o r s i s too g r e a t APPENDIX D Letter outline procedure. Sample page. Page of directions. Questionnaire three. APPENDIX D 128 Adult Education Research Centre May 27, 1974. Dear Thank you f o r your i n t e r e s t i n g , v a r i e d and thorough responses to the second questionnaire. I must at the sane t i n e apologize f o r asking you to devote so much t i n e to i t s completion. I would l i k e t o h a s t i l y point out- that t h i s t h i r d and f i n a l questionnaire w i l l d e f i n i t e l y ; not, be n e a r l y as time consuming. I t requires merely checking oi'f ite:as i n one of three columns, and re~estimating dates, e t c . I t does not require written comments at a l l unless you so d e s i r e . Because t h i s questionnaire represents the f i n a l sharpening of consensus cm the developments i n adult education which you have f o r e c a s t , I s i n c e r e l y hope that you w i l l , f o r t h i s l a s t t i n e , both o f f e r your knowledgeable opin ions and weigh" those of your f e l l o w p a n e l l i s t s through the completion of the questionnaire.-Of the 64. items on the second questionnaire, 29 have been r e t a i n e d . These items were chosen through weighting numerically the Very Great, Great, and Moderate ( t h e i r e f f e c t on ad. ed.) categories and r e t a i n i n g only those which had the greatest response. In t h i s questionnaire you are asked tot 1) assess the changes the panel predicted which may occur i n a d u l t education i n the province. 2) re-estimate your assessments of both the l i k e l i h o o d of occurrence and i t s impact, should i t occur, on adult education. Preceding the questionnaire you w i l l f i n d a sample paxfe and a short l i s t of d i r e c t i o n s which amplify and explain the various columns, markings, e t c . I am again enclosing a s e l f addressed stamped envelope and hope tha t you w i l l be able to return the questionnaire at your e a r l i e s t convenience. Again'I both thank you f o r your time and apologize f o r taking so much of i t . Y ours s i n c e r e l y , (Mrs.) Kary Aitken Shown i n C o l u e n s 2, 3» and 4 a r o the upper and lower quar t l i e s ano the o e d i a n ) f the g roup e s t i o a t e s . You r e a r l i e r e s t i m a t e i s i n r e d . In l i g h t o f t h e g roup e s t i m a t e s , the comments in Co luan 3, and the n a t u r e o f the even t i t s e l f , p l e a s e nark y o u r c u r r e n t e s t i m a t e wi th an " X " . IMPACT ON ADULT EDUCATION ANTICIPATED BY THE GROUP IF THE EVENT OCCURS. THE SCALE USED IS AS FOLLOWSt Very Great S r e a t Moderate S l i g h t None |5) CHANGES OR CAUSES OF CHANGES IN ADULT EDUCATION SUGGESTED IN ROUND 2, ASSUMING THAT THE EVENT OCCURS. PLEASE EVALUATE THESE COMMENTS, USING THE SCALE TJ THE R13H T , ANO AOO OTHERS THAT YOU THINK ARE IMPORTANT. More c r e d i b i l i t y and v i s i b i l i t y f o r A d u l t E d u c n t i j n g e n e r a l l y p l j s a degree o f p r o f e s s i o n a l i s m * W i l l r e s u l t i n a c a d e m i : t r a i n i n g o u t w e i g h i n g e x p e r i o n c e . W i l l l i m i t t h e o p p o r t u n i t y f o r " c o a i i g up*1 t h r o u g h t h e r a n k s . n t h i s c a s e , t h e o e d i a n r e s p o n s e and the lower q u a r t ! I s f a l l a t t h e saae p o i n t on t h e s c a l e . Upper Q u a r t i l « Response ( I n t h i s c a s e , 1330) Lower Q u a r t i l e Response ( I n t h i s c a s e 13s!) ro KO 130 DIRECTIONS I. The group median response and the upper and lower quartiles are shown in black and your individual response in each category i s marked with a red doti, • Please mark your new estimates with an "X". II. Please evaluate each of the suggested changes with a check mark. In evaluating these changes, please make the following differentiation: 1) i f you think the change li s t e d i s a direct and important factor supporting your estimate of the impact of the event on adult education, mark the "agree" column. 2) i f you think i t might have a bearing but i t i s not of major importance, mark the column "possible but  unimportant" column. 3) i f you consider the change i s too unlikely to be included i n evaluating the impact of the event on adult education, then mark the "disagree" column. III. Add other changes which may occur to you in your evaluation. SELECTEO POTENTIAL EVENTS FROU ROUND TWO Shown i n co lumns 2,3, a n d 4 a r c tho upper and lower que r t t i e s and t h e a e d i a n o f the g roup e s t i m a t e s . You r e a r l i e r e s t i s i t * i e in r e d . In l i g h t o f the gr;.up e s t l o a i e s j t h e c o n s e n t s i n C o l u n n 5, and t!<o n a t u r e c f the e v e n t i t s e l f , p l e a s e aa rk y o u r c u r r e n t e o t l o n t e w i th an " X " . 2 j YEAR 3Y WHICH L iKGL iKOOD OF OCCURRENCE REACHES 502 3) LIKELIHOOD OF OCCURREMCE B Y (*) IKPACT CK ADULT EDUCATION ANTICIPATED 8Y TKE GROUP If THE EVENT OCCURS. THE SCALE USED IS AS FOLLOWS: U J U J cc e» t as i s LU -1 ZJ L.-5 CO U J U J cc 0 < VG * Very Great G .= G rea t U a Modera te S = S l i g h t N » Kone CHANCES OR CAUSES OF CHANGES IN ADULT EDUCATION SUGGESTED IH ROUND 2, ASSUMING THAT TKE EVEKT OCCURS. PLEASE EVALUATE THESE COMMENTS, USING THE SCALE TO THE RICHT, AND ADD OTHERS THAT YCU THINK ARE IMPORTANT. 1. V o c a t i o n a l t r a i n i n g w i l l be p r o v i d e d a t no c o s t t o a l l those who a r e unemployed but e a p l o y a b l e . r L . N e v e r . L a t e r 1330 .1580 .157c P e r c e r < t . 100 ~_0 VS 1 6 <l 1. - L o c a l a d u l t e d u c a t i o n w i l l p robab l y be c a l l e d on to p r o v i d e v o c a t i o n a l c l a s s e s . - w i l l r e s u l t in mere ly B o r e e f f i c i e n t o p e r a t i o n o f e x i s t i n g f a c i l i t i e s and n o r e g e n e r a l a w a r e n e s s . - The r e s u l t o f i n c r e a s e d t e c h n o l o g y and s h o r t e r work weel - F a c i l i t i e s w i l l have to be p r o v i e e d and i n s t r u c t o r s t r a i n e d w i t h i n a p p r o v e d a r e a s . - If t h e r e i s not e x t e n s i v e l o c a l s u p p o r t t r a v e l l i n g s t u d e n t s woulc become n e c e s s a r y . - There w i l l be « o r e r e - t r a i n i r g o f wooen. I ndus t ry w i l l become more automated t h e r e f o r e t r a i n i n g w i l l be e s s e n t i a l to keep p a c e . * . V o c a t i o n a l t r a i n i n g w i l l be p r o v i d e d a t l o c a l l e v e l s r a t h e r than a t o a j o r c e n t r e s ( e . g . B u r r a t y V o c a t i o n a l S c h o o l ) by u s i n g upda ted d e l i v e r y systems and a o b i l i i e d c l a s s r o o m s . < -Ntevcr L a t e r _13S0 .1500 1970 100 :° VG J 1 J - There w i l l be e x t e n s i v e use o f ETV and e o b i l e u n i t s . - Equipment c o s t s deoand f u l l u sage . - P o p u l a t i o n and i n d u s t r a l i z a t i c n w i l l l e a d to d e -c e n t r a l i z i n g i n t o i n t e r i o r p o i n t s . - Much new c l e r i c a l work and a d o l n i s t r a t i v e d u t i e s f o r A d u l t E d u c a t i o n a d a i n i s t r a t * r . I n c rea se s i n c l a s s e s and nuobers o f p e o p l e i n v o l v e d w i th A d u l t E d u c a t i o n - T h i s w i l l p r o v i d e a o r e peop le d i r e c t a c c e s s to v o c a -t i o n a l t r a i n i n g . - B o e i n g has been d o i n g It f o r y e a r s . B . C . i s j u s t c l i » b i n g on to the bandwagon. - The onus of o r g a n i s a t i o n and c o - o r d i n a t l n w i l l be on the l o c a l a r e a making t h e r o l e of the d i r e c t o r o f A d u l t E d u c a t i o n ev en nore i m p o r t a n t . - I n c rea sed need f o r upg r ad i n g a t the l o c a l l e v e l . •a 1) SELECTEC POTENTIAL EVENTS FROM ROUND TWO Shown i n co lumns 2,3, and t a r o the upper and l ower q u a r t ! I t s and the n a d i e n o f the g r o u p e s t i m a t e s . You r e a r l i e r e s t l s a t e i s i n r e d . In l i g h t o f t h e g roup e s t i m a t e s , the comments In Column 5, and tho r .ature o f tho e v e n t i t s e l f , p l t a j e c a r k y o u r c u r r e n t e s t i m a t e w i th an " X " . r> YEAR 8Y '..ttlCH LIXELIUCOO OF OCCURRENCE REACHES 5CJ 3; LIK.ELiHOOD CF OCCURRENCE 8Y J584 *) IKPACT ON ADULT EDUCATION ANTICIPATED 8Y THE GROUP IF THE EVENT OCCURS. THE SCALE USED IS AS F O L L O W : L U UJ -* • a. — UJ DISAGREE VG = V e r y Great G = Great H » a o d o r c t e S • S l i g h t H • None y) CHANGES OR CAUSES OF CHANGES IN ADULT EDUCATION SUGGESTED IN ROUND 2, ASSUaiNG THAT THE EVENT OCCURS. PLEASE EVALUATE THESE COMMENTS, USIKG THE SCALE TO THE RIGHT, AND ADD OTHERS THAT YCU THINK ARE IMPORTANT. • DISAGREE 5. Most e m p l o y e r s w i l l f i n d v e K e i n a d u l t e d u c a t i o n as a management t o o l . f ( . N e v e r ^ L a t e r _1S30 -1380 .157C P e r c e r I ) t . .TOO 150' ~ 0 VS 1 s A 1 I - More demand f o r A d u l t E d u c a t i n c o u r s e s . - Upg rad ing i s i n vogue now. - Th i s w i l l be n e c e s s a r y to h e l p to c o u n t e r v n i c n demands. - P l a n t e f f i c i e n c y demands t h i * . - Emp loyer s w i l l a r r a n g e f o r s p e c i f i c c o u r s e s f o r t h e i r s t a f f s t o be run through n i g h t s c h o o l * wherever p o s s . - Emp loyer s w i l l encourage s t a f f p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n e x i s t i n g A d u l t E d u c a t i o n programs. - L o c a l l y d e v e l o p e d programs w i l l be demanded p u t t i n g the onus on the d i r t r i c t s t o p r o v i d e t h e n . S. I n c r e a s e d c o s t o f l i v i n g (Consumer p r i c e index w s : 133.4 i n l j n ba sed on I3&I u n i t o f ICO) w i l l r e s u l t i n 30} o f f e c i l i e s b e i n g s u p p o r t e d oy 2 incomes (husband & w i f e ) . / Never L a t e r 1330 1J80 .1370 < ICO 'JO - 0 V s " J G - glare t r a i n i n g programs w i l l be r e q u i r e d f o r w ives g o i n g to work. - More p r e - s c h o o l s w i l l be n e e d e d . - The r e s u l t o f a o o e n ' t L i b . - T e c h n o l o g i c a l cemand f o r i n c r e a s e d t r a i n i n g . . The r e s u l t o f s t a t u s o f women i n s o c i e t y * - There e x i s t s a tremendous need f o r u p g r a d i n g and r e - t r a i n i n g women w i th f a m i l i e s . - P r e s e n t t r e n d w i l l i n c r e a s e a s d e s i r e f o r m a i n t a i n i n g s t a n d a r d o f l i v i n g grows. - Caused by the d e s i r e o f w ives t o r e t u r n to work. - T h i s c o u l d be upse t by a major r e v e r s a l i n p r e s e n t t r e n d s wh ich w h i l e i n e v i t a b l e might not o c c u r t i l l a f t e r I384. SELECTEO POTENTIAL EVENTS FROB ROUND TWO Shown i n c o l u e n s 2,3, and « a r c the upper and l ower q u e . r t i l e s and t h e n o d i a n o f the g roup e 6 t i « M t e s . You r e a r l i e r e s t i m a t e i s i n r e d . In l i g h t o f the gr. iup e s t i m a t e s , t h e comments in Co lunn 5, and the n a t u r e o f the even t i t s e l f , p l e a s e e a r k y o u r c u r r e n t e s t l & a t e w i th an " X " . P) YEAR CY , WHICH LIKELIHOOO OF OCCURRENCE REACHES 50JJ 3) LIKELIHOOD OF OCCURRENCE BY J584 w * J -IUIPACT OK ADULT EDUCATION ANTICIPATED BY THE GROUP IF THE EVENT OCCURS. THE SCALE USED IS AS FOLLOWS: AGREE • z — 3} J J - J 1J s> •Ji 0 DISAGREE VG » Very Grea t G = Great a 1 1 K o d e r a t e S » S l i j h t K a None CHANGES 03 CAUSES OF CHANGES IN ADULT EDUCATION SUGGESTED IN ROUNO 2, ASSUMING THAT THE EVENT OCCURS. PLEASE EVALUATE THESE COMMENTS, USING THE SCALE TO THE RICHT, AND ADD OTHERS THAT YCU THINK ARE IMPORTANT. AGREE DISAGREE I C . A p o r t , n o f the c u r r i c u l u m f o r a l l c h i l d r e n frees K to 12 w i l l be d e v o t e d s p e c i f i c a l l y t o l i f e l o n g l e a r n i n g as opposed to e n d - g o a l o r i e n t e d e d u c a t i o n . i . N e v e r . L a t e r 1530 - 1 S 8 0 .157C P e r c e r < i t . 100 ~_o VG <! I - Caused by chang ing v a l u e s and l e i s u r e t i » e a c t i v i t i e s . W i l l l e a d to e x t e n s i v e u p g r a d i n g on a p a r t t i a e b a s i s . I n c rea sed dsraar.' f o r s e l f i a p r c v e a e n t . - The r e s u l t o f uanageaent p r e s s u r e . - May be need f o r a c a d e a i c A d u l t E d u c a t i o n c o u r s e s when i n t e r e s t i n c r e a s e s a s o l d e r . - Ho re peop le w i l l r e t u r n f o r c o n t i n o u s l e a r n i n g a c t i v i t i e - A d u l t E d u c a t i n w i l l be c o n s i d e r e d p a r t o f l i v i n g l i k e bed and s l e e p t h a t i n d i v i d u a l s need and d e s i r e . - " F o r m a l i z e d " t e a c h i n g w i l l d e c r e a s e . - R e c r e s t i c n a l a c t i v i t i e s w i l l be those o f g r e a t e s t i o p o r t a n c e . In t h e o r y , t h i s c o u l d add to the nunber o f young a d u l t s s e e k i n g a c a d e a i c e d u c a t i o n to aake up f o r what they a i s s e d i n younger d a y s . s . 12 . ]0i o f e a p l o y e d per sons w i l l r e - e n t e r t h e t r a i n i n g a r e n a a t l e a s t once e v e r y 5 y e a r s . < N e v e r L a t e r 1330 _ 1 J 8 0 137C / 100 '50 VG A - Peop le w i l l r e v a l u e t h e i r " l e t " in l i f e . . C r e a t e a need f o r cany a d d i t i o n a l t r a i n g p r o g r e s s , • o s t run th rough A d u l t E d u c a t i o n p r o g r e s s o f soee s o r t . - P r o b a b l y upg rad ing w i l l be under t aken c o - l n c i d e n t a l l y w i th job ( with e x c e p t i o n o f p r o f e s s i o n a l t r a i n i n g ) . - D i r e c t i n c e c a s e i n t r a i n e e s and t r a i h o r s . - Thr r e s u l t o f h i g h l y f l u i d and mobi le p o p u l a c e o o v i n g about and c o n t i n u a l l y chang ing j o b s . - More upg rad ing r c q u i r e a e n t s due to t e c h n o l o g i c a l change " 0 L. 1 s' , J SELECTED POTENTIAL EVENTS FROU ROUND TWO Shown i n c o l u n n a 2,3, and 4 a r o the upper and lower q u e r t i l t s and the median o f the g roup e s t i m a t e s . Y o u r e a r l i e r e s t i m a t e i s i n r e d . In l i g n t o f tho gr.-.up e s t i s a t e s , t h e comments In C o K n n 5, and the n a t u r e o f tho event i t s e l f , p l c a j o ea rk y o u r c u r r e n t e s t i s a t * w i th an " X " . 2} YEAR DY WX1CH L i K S L i f O O O OF OCCURRENCE REACHES 50JS 3) LIKELIHOOD OF OCCURRENCE 3Y i 5 8 4 IMPACT CM ADULT EDUCATION ANTICIPATED BY THE GROUP IF THE EVEIJT OCCURS. THE SCALE USEO IS AS F O L L O W : U J U J ce <j> t a. a* ZJ CO U J _ J Cu LO CO O ri LU U J CC 0 *x CO a VG • Very Great G.= Grea t H a Modera te S " S l i g h t H » None CHANGES OR CAUSES OF CHANGES IN ADULT EDUCATION SUGGESTED IN ROUND 2, ASSUUING THAT THE EVENT OCCURS. PLEASE EVALUATE THESE COMMENTS, USIHu THE SCALE TO THE R U H T , AND ADD OTHERS THAT YCU THINK ARE IMPORTANT. 15. There w i l l be a 30| i n c r e . s i n enro lment i n the 30-44 y e a r s age g r ; u p i n a d . e d . p u b l i c n i g h t s c h o o l programs (beyond t he norma l i n c r e a s e t i e d t o p o p u l a t i o n ) . e t . N e v e r . L a t e r 1330 - 1 5 8 0 .137c P e r c e r / t t . 100 1 5 0 ' "0 -VG 1 .. 1 - More v a r i e t y in c o u r s e s w i l l be r e q u i r e d . - Need f o r c o n t i n u o u s r a t h e r than " o n c e i n l i f e t i m e " t r a i n i n g w i l l i n c r e a s e enro lment i n nany d i f f e r e n t t y p e s o f A d u l t E d u c a t i o n programs. - p r e s e n t s e c o n d a r y s c h o o l b u l g e w i l l h i t n i g h t s c h o o l In 17* age b r a c k e t . - G r e a t e r demand f o r r e c r e a t i o n as w e l l as u p g r a d i n g p rograms . - I n c rea se need i n a l l a s p e c t s of no rma l r e s o u r c e s (human and m a t e r i a l ) . l 6 . P r o v i n c i a l l y o p e r a t e d c h i l d c a r e c e n t r e s ( under 6 ) and d rop i n c e n t r e s (6 t o 12* ) w i l l be p r o v i d e d l o c a l l y . Never L a t e r 1330 . 1 J 8 0 137C 100 1 5 0 " 0 L VG J ) J - w i l l f r e e w.,aen to work t h e r e b y i n c r e a s i n g t r a i n i n g o f t h e s e women. - More day t ime d d u l t : E d u c a t i o n o f f e r i n g s . - W i l l a l l o w more i n d i v i d u a l s t o pursue p a r t a n d / o r f u l l t i a t t r a i n i n g . - Caused by i n c r e a s e i n l a b o r f o r c e and p r e - r e u u l s i te t r a i n i n g . - The b u i l c u p o f need f o r such f a c i l i t i e s i s e x p e c t e d to be f o l l o w e d by a r e v e r s a l . 1) SELECTED POTENTIAL EVENTS FROB ROUNO TWO Shown In c o l u o n s 2,3, a n d * a r e the upper and l ower q u e r t i l t s and the median o f the g roup e s t i m a t e s . Your e a r l i e r e s t i s i t * i s in r e d . !n l i g h t o f the :r>up e s t i a a t e s , t h e comments i n C o l u n n 5, and the n a t u r e o f the e v e n t i t s e l f , p l e a s e oarU y o u r c u r r e n t e s t i m a t e w i th i n " X " . *) YEAS BY WHICH LIKELIHOOO OF OCCURRENCE REACHES 5CJS 3. LIKELIHOOO OF OCCURRENCE BY J ? 8 * •) IMPACT ON AOULT EDUCATION ANTICIPATED 8Y THE GROUP IF THE EVENT OCCURS. THE SCALE L'SEO IS AS FOLLOWS* 1 • U J us cc 0 -e CO a VG * Very Great G " G rea t 23 » Modera te S « S l i g h t N « None CHANGES OR CAUSES OF CHANGES IN AOULT EDUCATICN SUGGESTED IN ROUND 2, ASSUMING THAT THE EVENT OCCURS. PLEASE EVALUATE THESE COMMENTS, USING THE SCALE TO THE RIGHT, AND AOD OTHERS THAT YCU THINK ARE IMPORTANT. U J L U CC OJ L/"J L/O O ft. 21. 25$ o f » s u b c u l t u r a l ' group ( e . g . t h e p o o r , the © 1 4 , the e c o n o m i c a l l y , p h y s i o l o g i c a l l y o r e d u c e t i c n a l l y d i s a d v a n t a g e d , e t c . ) , t r i l l be r e a c h e d t h r c u g h a d . e d . s e r v i c e s * r < . N e v e r . L a t e r 1330 - l J S O .1S7C P e r c e r tt. 100 150 ~_0 VG A 1 • i - T h i s w i l l r e s u l t i n nore c l a s s e s , w i t h e o r e v a r i e t y and g r e a t e r number o f p a r t i c i p a n t s . - As the " s t a t e " moves toward g r e a t e r i n v o l v e a e n t and p l a n n i n g re the i n d i v i d u a l ' s f u t u r e , s p e c i a l e n p h a s i s w i l l be p l a c e d on t h i s g r o u p . - A d u l t E d u c a t i o n w i l l r e q u i r e g r e a t e r s u p p o r t f r o * the govennnent to o f f e r an expanded p r o ^ r a a t o t h i s g r o u p . 22. A l l o r g a n i z e d c o o o u n i t i e s « i l l p r o v i d e f r e e wniiij]i&iurta»ii c o u n s e l l i n g s e r v i c e s and p r c g r e a p l a n n i n g f o r a l l a d u l t s who d e s i r e t h e n r e g a r d i n g u p g r a d i n g t h e i r e d u c a t i c n . fl I N e v e r _ L « t * r .1390 . 1 5 8 0 1370 < 100 150 " 0 L VG A J - A d a i n i s t r a t o r s , c o u n s e l l o r s , and t e a c h e r s needed i n g r e a t e r numbers. - F o r the f i r s t t i a e a l l pe r sons eay be a b l e to ge t a c l e a r p i c t u r e o f where t h e i r l i v e s a r e go ing and what they want f r c a l i f e . T h i s would c r e a t e a g r e a t upsurge i n a l l e d u c a t i o n a l a r e a s . • T h i s w i l l r e s u l t in i n c r e a s e d i n t e r e s t and p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n A d u l t E d u c a t i o n p r o g r e s s - T h i s s e r v i c e w i l l be p r o v i d e d by t h e D e p t . o f E d u c a t i i - More a d a i n i s t r a t i v e a s s i s t a n t s n e e d e d . - L o c a l A d a l t E d u c a t i o n w i l l be r e q u i r e d t o o r g a n i z e and a d m i n i s t e r c o u n s e l l i n g s e r v i c e i f they a r e expanded to the ne i ghbourhood l e v e l . n . 1) SELECTED POTENTIAL EVENTS FROU ROUNO TWO Shown i n co lumns 2,3* a n d 4 a r c the upper and lower q u e r t i l e s and the median o f t h e g roup e s t i m a t e s . Y o u r e a r l i e r e s t i m a t e i s in r e d . In l i g h t o f the gr. iup e s t i m a t e s , t h o comments In Column 5» and the n a t u r e o f the even t i t s e l f , p l e a s e stark y o u r c u r r e n t e s t i m a t e w i th an " X " . 2) YEAH 8Y WttlCH L IKEL iKCOO OF OCCURRENCE REACHES 50$ LIKELIHOOD Or OCCURRENCE 8Y J364 4 ) IMPACT ON ADULT EDUCATION ANTICIPATED 8Y THE GROUP IF THE EVENT OCCURS. THE SCALE USED IS AS FOLLOWS: LU UJ CC < X* aa _j t— ro =Q UJ —1 aj -0 0 X... UJ UJ oc 0 •< 0 a VG * V e r y Great G 1 G rea t ii » U o d a r a t e S » S l i g h t K « None CHANGES OR CAUSES OF CHANGES IN ADULT EDUCATION SUGGESTEO IN ROUND 2, ASSUMING THAT THE EVENT OCCURS. PLEASE EVALUATE THESE COMMENTS, USING THE SCALE TO THE RIGHT, AND ADD OTHERS THAT YOU THINK ARE IMPORTANT. 2 4 . Community s c h o o l s w i l l d e v e l o p under the a d a i n i s t r a -t ion o f the p u b l i c s c h o o l s y s tem w i t h a d . e d . p e r s o n n e l . i . N e v e r . L a t e r _1S30 .1380 .157c P e r c e r < X. . 100 -150 VG 1 G . A I - Hore background and t r a i n i n g w i l l be needed f o r A d u l t E d u c a t i o n a d m i n i s t r a t i v e p e r s o n n e l . - Emphas is w i l l lot be on A d u l t E d u c a t i o n but on f e e l i n g o f community. - T h i s i s d e f i n i t e l y ' a l ong range t r e n d . - Onus w i l l be on the d i s t r i c t t o c o - o r d i n a t e t h i s t y p e o f l e a r n i n g . - G r e a t e r community i nvo l vement wi th s c h o o l s and programs. - T h i s concep t i s the be s t way o f j u s t i f y i n g t h e t a x d o l l a r s spent on s c h o o l f a c i l i t i e s and u s i n g t h o s e f a c i l i t i e s . - Changes w i l l be ma in l y i n the scope and h o r i z o n o f A d u l t E d u c a t i o n . 2 b . 50? o f s c h o o l s ( e l e o e n t a r y and s e c o n d a r y ) w i l l encourage community p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n bo th f o r m a l and i n f o r p a l programs a f t e r s c h o o l , i n t h e e v e n i n g , a n d on weekends. ( Never L a t e r 1330 .1580 .137c 100 150 :° VG 4 J - There w i l l be more a d m i n i s t r a t i v e t a s k s f o r A d u l t E d u c a t i o n p e r s o n n e l . . P a r t i c i p a t i o n f rom s c h o o l s In a c t i v e encouragement o f A d u l t E d u c a t i o n would c r e a t e new i n t e r e s t and a p p r o v a l . TI)ia would i n c r e a s e a c t u a l e n r o l m e n t numbers g r e a t l y . - f o e p u b l i c a r e r e q u e s t i n g now and w i l l demand i t w i t h i n a few y e a r s . Tho p a r t i c i p a t i o n c o u l d e a s i l y be i n c o r p o r a t e d w i t h i n the community s c h o o l c o n c e p t * t o be a d m i n i s t e r e d by the d i r e c t o r o f A d u l t E d u c a t i o n i n con j u n c t i c n w i th s c h o o l s . - A d u l t E d u c a t i o n might be r e q u i r e d t o get more i n v o l v e d and a s s i s t in the c o r - o r d i n a t i > n . .A V>4 SELECTED POTENTIAL EVENTS FROU ROUND TWO Shown i n co lumns 2,3, and 4 a r o the upper and lower q u a r t i l e s and t h e median of the g roup e e t i m a t e s . Y o u r e a r l i e r e s t i m a t e i s in r e d . In l i g h t of the s r - ' u P e s t i m a t e s , t h e comments In Column 5, and the n a t u r e o f tho even t I t s e l f , p l e a s e mark your c u r r e n t : e s t i s a t e w i th an " X n . YEAR BY WHICH LIKELJHOOD OF OCCURRENCE REACHES 50* 3) L IKEL IH000 OF OCCURRENCE 8Y J-384. IMPACT ON ADULT EDUCATICN ANTICIPATED 8Y THE GROUP IF THE EVENT OCCURS. THE SCALE USED IS AS FOLLOWS: U J U J a •X • a. — ro BO t-J —1 Cu LO LO 0 LU U J CC to 0 VG « Very Great G . a G rea t 8 » a o d e r c t e S » S l i j h t N » None CHANGES OR CAUSES OF CHANGES IN ADULT EDUCATION SUGGESTED IN ROUND 2 , ASSUUING THAT THE EVENT OCCURS. PLEASE EVALUATE THESE COMMENTS, USING THE SCALE TO THE RIGHT, AND ADD OTHERS THAT YOU THINK ARE IMPORTANT. A f u l l t ime n i g h t s c h o o l d i r e c t o r ( p u b l i c n i g h t s c h o o l ) i n each s c h o o l d i s t r i c t o f f e r i n g n i g h t s c h o o l c o u r s e s w i l l be a p p o i n t e d . r . N e v e r . L a t e r _1330 -1380 .1S7C P e r c e f < t t . . ICO 150" "0 b VQ 1 - P r e s e n t t r e n d s p o i n t t o e x t e n s i o n of s c h o o l day and t o b r o a d e n i n g o f age g r ?ups s e r v e d . - The n a t u r a l i n c r e a s e in p r o v i n c i a l i n v o l v e m e n t w i l l g i v e more o p p o r t u n i t y f o r the i n d i v i d u a l i n t h e Community. - . T h i s w i l l o n l y happen in d i s t r i c t w i th g r e a t a n d / c r growing p o p u l a t i o n s and would r e s u l t i n a n ; I n c r e a s e i n a d m i n i s t r a t i v e work. - A much more v i t a l p r o v i n c i a l program would d e v e l o p . - There w i l l be more peop le i n v o l v e d w i th A d u l t E d u c a t . - E v e r y o n e i n B . C . w i l l have a c c e s s t o v a r y i n g deg ree wi th A d u l t E d u c a t i o n s e r v i c e s . - Only f e a s i b l e i f s m a l l e r d i s t r i c t s ama lgamate . - L a r g e l y dependent on p o p u l a t i o n g r o w t h . 2 8 . I n - s e r v i c e a d . e d . t c a c h i n g t e c h n i q u e s w i l l be p r o v i d e d f o r a l l e d u c a t o r s i n community c o l l e g e s t e a c h i n g a d u l t s . Never L a t u r 1330 . 1 J 8 0 137C • 100 15° :° VG J S J - T h i s i s the i d e a l f o r a l ) A d u l t E d u c a t i o n p u b l i c s c h o o l c o u r s e s a s w e l l . - T h i s w i l l i a p o r v e the q u a l i t y of c o u r s e c o n t e n t a n d p r e s e n t a t i n , no doubt i n c r e a s i n g p u b l i c i n t e r e s t In A d u l t E d u c a t i o n e f f e c t i v e n e s s . - Bay p r o v i d e the means by which an i n s t r u c t o r / t e a c h e r w i l l f i n d n c « i n t e r e s t in t e a c h i n g A d u l t E d u c a t i o n . - A more l i S e l y development would be to emphas ize the s p e c i a l t y o f t e a c h i n g a d u l t s as a r e g u l a r p a r t o f t e a c h e r t r a i n i n g f o r the t e a c h i n g c e r t i f i c a t e i n t h e p r o v i n c e . 1) SELECTED POTENTIAL EVENTS FRCU ROUND TWO Shown i n c o l u n n s 2,3» * n d 4 a r c the upper ar.d l ower q u a r t i l e s and the median of t h e g roup e s t i o a t e s . You r e a r l i e r e s t i m a t e i s in r e d . In l i g h t o f the jr.-.up c s t i o a t t - s , t h e comments In C o l m n 5» and the n a t u r e o f t h e even t i t s e l f 1 p l e a s e car ' * y o u r c u r r e n t e c t i o a t e w i th an " X " . 2) YEAR BY WHICH LIKELIHOOD OF OCCURRENCE REACHES 502 3) LIKELIHOOD OF OCCURRENCE BY J5S4 $ <) ISPACT ON AOULT EDUCATION ANTICIPATED 8Y THE GROUP IF THE EVENT OCCURS. THE SCALE USED IS AS FOLLOWS: U J u> •* 1 . a. a CO .u _ j u LO O U J U J or •< CO a VG = Very Great G = Great U * Moderate S = S l i g h t N « None CHANGES OR CAUSES OF CHANGES IN AOULT EDUCATION SUGGESTEO IN ROUND 2, ASSUMING THAT TKE EVENT OCCURS. PLEASE EVALUATE THESE COMMENTS, USING THE SCALE TO THE RIGHT, AND ADD OTHERS THAT YCU THINK ARE IMPORTANT. 32. C o - r i < i n a t i o n o f a d u l t e d u c a t i o n s e r v i c e s a t the r e g i o n and l o c a l l e v e l w i l l be i n s t i t u t e d under t h e a u s p i c e s o f the D e p t . o f E d u c a t i o n . f .1 ( . N e v e r . L a t e r 1^330 .1380 .1?7C P e r c e r < z. . 100 "o VQ A i - T h i s w i l l r e s u l t i n d i r e c t i o n , f u n d i n g , d e v e l o p a e n t , e t c . , t o the whole A d u l t E d u c a t i o n o o v e a e n t . . New i n t e r e s t i n A d u l t E d u c a t i o n f r o a the O e p t . o f E d . w i l l c r e a t e aorc f i n a n c i a l suppor t which i n t u r n o l l l c r e a t e b e t t e r c o u r s e s , t r a i n e d i n s t r u c t o r s , and i n c r e a s e d e n r o l a e n t . - Such c o - o r d i n a t i o n mould p r o v i d e I n f o r m a t i o n , a s s i s t a n c e in p r o g r a m i n g , and s v l i d o v e r l a p . 34. A c o - o r d i n a t o r a d . e d . s e r v i c e s w i l l be a p p o i n t e d p r o v -i n c l a l l y t h r o u g h t h e D e p t . o f E d u c a t i o n . I N e v e r L a t e r 1330 .1380 .1370 100 " 0 VG A J - T h i s w i l l r e s u l t i n l ong needed d i r e c t i o n f r o a o n * a u t h o r i t y . - t ep rove s t a t e s o f A d u l t E d u c a t i o n . - C r e a t e c h a n n e l s which have not been a v a i l a b l e to a d o i n i s t r a t o r s up t o t h i s p o i n t . - P r o v i d e i n f o r a a t i o n , a s s i s t i n p r o g r a a o i n g and a v o i d o v e r l a p . 1) SELECTED POTENTIAL EVENTS FROB ROUND TWO Shown l n c o l u o n s 2,3> and 4 a r c the upper and lower q u e r t i l e s a n d the a e d i a n o f t h e g roup e s t i m a t e s . Y o u r e a r l i e r e s t i m a t e i s in r e d . In l i g h t o f the gr.-.up e s t i o a t e s , t h e comments i n C o l m n 5» a n d the n a t u r e o f t h e even t I t s e l f , p l e a s e s a r k y o u r c u r r e n t a s t i s a t e w i th t n " X " . *) YEAR BY W I C K L l K E L i K C O O Or OCCURRENCE REACHES 50J5 3) LIKELIHOOD OF OCCURRENCE 8Y 1334 I1APACT ON ADULT EDUCATION ANTICIPATED BY THE GROUP IF THE EVENT OCCURS. TKE SCALE USED IS AS FOLLOWS: AGREE • I S Xt o J —J 3J i/> O U i u. cc to 0 VG = V e r y Great G s G rea t U a Modera te S B S l i j h t N » None CHANGES OR CAUSES OF CHANGES IN AOULT EDUCATION SUGGESTED IN ROUND 2, ASSUaiNG THAT THE EVENT OCCURS. PLEASE EVALUATE THESE COMMENTS, USING THE SCALE TO THE RIGHT, AND ADD OTHERS THAT YOU THINK ARE IMPORTANT. AGREE 3 ^ . 5O? o f o p e r a t i n g c o s t s o f n i g h t s c h o o l programs w i l l be p r o v i d e d t h r . u g h p r o v i n c i a l f u n d s . . N e v e r . L a t e r 1330 -1380 .1570 P e r c e r t . K i o o 150 4 I ! - R e c o g n i t i o n o f the p a s s i b l e . d i r e c t i > n f o r i n c l u s i o n i n t e a c h e r - p u p i l r a t i o w i l l h e l p . - E n a b l e a g r t i t i n c r e a s e i n the nueber o f c o u r s e s o f f e r e d as r n t o l e e n t numbers no- Id not be the p r i s e f a c t o r i n p r e s e n t i n g the se c o u r s e s . - E a s i e r t o o f f e r c o u r s e s a t t r a c t i n g few s t u d e n t s , t h e r e f o r e ao re v a r i e d p r o g r a o s . - F i n a n c i a l s t a b i l i t y would t ake the " p r e s s u r e " o f f . - Would p r o v i d e o p p o r t u n i t i e s to t h o s e who would not p a r t i c i p a t e p r e v i o u s l y because t h e y l i v e i n s p a r s e l y p o p u l a t e d a r e a s . - More v a r i e d and b e t t e r p r o g r a m i n g w i t h i n t h e f i n a n c i a l range o f no re p e o p l e . - The Dep t . o f E d u c a t i o n w i l l become n o r e g r e a t l y i n v o l v e d in a d a i n i s t r a t i o n . T h i s w i l l i n c r e a s e o r a t l e a s t change the " r e d t a p e " o f the j o b . 37 * CoQountty c o l l e g e s w i l l -a b s o r b ,25? of p r e s e n t p u b l i c s c h o o l a d . e d . a d m i n i s t r a t o r s . N e v e r L a t e r 1330 1370 <] 100 > " 0 VG - L o c a l a d a i n i a t r a t o r s would s t i l l be s e r v i n g d i s t r i c t s f o r l o c a l c o a n u n i c a t i o n but would be work ing a s p a r t o f c o l l e g e s t a f f r e s i d e n t o u t s i d e the c a o p u t . - T h i s would r e p r e s e n t a p o l i t i c a l d e c i s i o n . . There would be l e s s l o c a l autonomy. - There would be l e s s f l e x i b i l i t y and speed o f r eponae '0 p u b l i c n e e d s . - T h i s would p r e s u a a b l y make the A d u l t E d u c a t i o n a d m i n i s t r a t o r a n c e p l o y e e o f the c o l l e g e r a t h e r t h a n t h e s c h o o l d i s t r i c t which would have b o t h advan tage s and d i s a d v a n t a g e s . SELECTED POTENTIAL EVENTS FROM ROUND TWO Shown i n c o i u n n s 2,3, and 4 a r o t h e upper and l ower q u s r t i l e s and the median of the g roup e t t i o a t e s . Y o u r e a r l i e r e s t i m a t e i s i n r e d . In l i g h t o f tho g roup e s t i a a t e s , t h e comments In Column 5, and the n a t u r e o f the e v e n t i t s e l f , p l e a j e eart< y o u r c u r r e n t e & t i e a t e w i th an " X " . *) YEAR BY WHICH LIKELIHOOD OF OCCURRENCE REACHES 50$ ii LIKELIHOOD OF OCCURRENCE BY JS84 *) IKPACT ON ADULT EDUCATION ANTICIPATED 8Y THE GROUP IF THE EVENT OCCURS. THE SCALE USEO IS AS FOLLOWS: U i U i CC t • a. 2S -O ro LO UJ XJ LO LO O DISAGREE VG = V e r y Great G = Grea t U » Modera te S • S l i g h t H • None CHANGES OR CAUSES OF CHANGES IN ADULT EDUCATION SUGGESTEO IN ROUNO 2, ASSUMING THAT THE EVENT OCCURS. PLEASE EVALUATE THESE COMMENTS, USING THE SCALE TO THE RIGHT, AND ADD OTHERS THAT YOU THINK ARE IHPORTANT. DISAGREE 39« Community c o l l e g e s w i l l have " b r a n c h e s " i n e v e r y e o o a u n i t y i n B . C . w i t h a p o p u l a t i o n o f 10,000*. r _ N e v c r . L a t e r 1530 -1380 .157C P e r c e r < i t . 100 150 VG A i - T h i s would r e s u l t i n a program more s o p h i s t i c a t e d ) more c o s t l y , and l e s s r e s p o n s i v e t o communi ty . - T h e - a d m i n i s t r a t i o n a t the l o c a l l e v e l o f c o l l e g e c o u r s e s w i l l d i s a p p e a r . - A d u l t E d u c a t i o n s e r v i c e s w i l l be expanded . - W i l l sake A d u l t E d u c a t i o n a d m i n i s t r a t o r s employees o f the c o l l e g e r a t h e r than the d i s t r i c t w i t h subsequent advan tage s and d i s a d v a n t a g e s . 4 1 . A l l u n i v e r s i t i e s , c o l l e g e s , s c h o o l d i s t r i c t a d . e d . and r e c r e a t ion c o m m i s s i o n s w i l l c o - o r d i n a t e t h e i r a c t i v i t i e s t 0 a v o i d o v e r l a p o f s e r v i c e s . < Never L a t e r 1330 _ 1580 137C < 100 15° ~ 0 VG A J . J - C o l l e g e s w i l l a d m i n i s t e r t h e c o - o r d i n a t i o n . - T h i s would r e s u l t i n i n c r e a s e d e f f i c i e n c y o f o p e r a t i o n , and w ider v a r i e t y o f c o u r s e s . - The a d m l n i s t r a t Ive s t r u c t u r e would c h a n g e . - Would r e s u l t i n more e f f i c i e n t use o f r e s o u r c e s w i t h i n the communi ty . - T h i s s h o u l d mean b e t t e r community s e r v i c e . -ft o 1 ) SELECTEO POTENTIAL EVENTS FHOH ROUND TWO Shown i n c o l u o n a 2,3, and 4 a r o t h a upper and l ower q u a r t i l e s and t h e median o f the g roup e s t i m a t e s . You r e a r l i e r e i t i s a t e i s i n r e d . In l i g h t o f the g.-oup e s t i m a t e s , the comments In Column 5, and tho n a t u r e o f t h e even t i t s e l f , p l e a « a mark your c u r r e n t e s t J o a t e w i th an " X " . 2} YEAR BY VttlCH LIKELIHOOD CF OCCURRENCE REACHES 5056 3; LIKELIHOOD OF OCCURRENCE 8Y £ ? 8 4 IHPAC7 ON AOULT EDUCATION ANTICIPATED BY THE GROUP If THE EVENT OCCURS. THE SCALE USED IS AS FOLLOWS: U i U i CC <D •« VG = V e r y Great G * G rea t tt 3 Modera te S = S l i g h t H • Ncno CHANGES OR CAUSES OF CHANGES IN ADULT EDUCATION SUGGESTED IN ROUND 2 , ASSUMING THAT THE EVENT OCCURS. PLEASE EVALUATE THESE COMMENTS, USING THE SCALE TO THE RIGHT, AND ADD OTHERS THAT YOU THINK ARE IMPORTANT. U i U l ac •X U i ~i 1j L/5 CO O 4 3 . A l l a d . e d . a c t i v i t i e s w i l l be a s h a r e d r e s p o n s i b i l i t y b e t -ween p u b l i c n i g h t s c h o o l s and e o o a u n i t y c o l l e g e s . . N e v e r . L a t e r 1330 -1580 P c r c c r t . 100 150' ~o VG A i - Would r e s u l t In an i n c r e a s e i n exchange o f i d e a s . - T h i s w i l l a f f e c t c o l l e g e s not A d u l t E d u c a t i o n programs n e c e s s a r i l y . - S c h o o l boards w i l l s u p p l y f a c i l i t i e s w h i l t c o l l e g e s w i l l c o - o r d i n a t e A d u l t E d u c a t i o n . 4 o . S p e c i f i c on the j o b p r o g r e s s w i l l be d e v e l o p e d t o a l l e v i a t e boredom i n t e d i o u s o r r e p e t i t i o u s i n d u s t r i a l , o r f a c t o r y j o b s . I N e v e r L a t e r 1330 . 1 J 8 0 .1370 < ICO - 0 VG J 1 J - T h i s would be t h e r e s u l t o f s o r e demand f o r u p g r a d i n g . - T h i s i s done now i n i n d u s t r y . - P o t e n t i a l change i f A d u l t E d u c a t i o n were to be i n v o l v e d i n a s s i s t i n g w i th a n d / o r c o - o r d i n a t i n g such programs. SELECTEO POTENTIAL EVENTS FRCU ROUND TWO rT Shown in co lumns 2,3, a n < * * a r c t h e upper and l ower q u e r t i l c s and t h e n e d i a n o f the g roup e s t i m a t e s . You r e a r l i e r e s t i m a t e i s i n r e d . In l i g h t o f the g roup e s t i m a t e s , the c o n s e n t s In Coli.no 5» and tho n a t u r e o f the e v e n t i t s e l f , p l e a i e nirSi y o u r c u r r e n t e s t i m a t e w i th a n " X " . YEAR BY WHICH L IKEL iPOOD OF OCCURRENCE REACHES 50g TJ LIKELIHOOD OF OCCURRENCE 8Y 1384 (*5 I ".PACT ON ADULT EDUCATION ANTICIPATED 8Y THE GROUP IF THE EVENT OCCURS. THE SCALE USED IS AS FOLLOWS: VG S a s N V e r y Great G r e a t Modera te S l i g h t None CHANGES OR CAUSES OF CHANGES IN AO'JLT EDUCATION SUGGESTED IN ROUND 2, ASSUMING THAT THE EVENT OCCURS. PLEASE EVALUATE THESE COMMENTS, US IN i THE SCALE TO THE RICHT, AND ADO OTHERS T.MAT YOU THINK ARE IMPORTANT. 50. Community colleges will become "umbrella" institutions providing for a l l economically f easible local adult education needs. VG G A This would result in more leadership, policy, funding, etc. Industry will s t i l l train their own eoployees. School boards will supply facilities while colleges will co-ordinate Adult Educat ion. 53* Community colleges and industry will "share" personnel in order that colleges can provide job training f a c i l i t i e s and programs suitable for changing employment needs in indoatr). Never Later 1330 1580 1S7C VG There will be an increased use of para professionals. Colleges and vocational institutions will become core distinct. J ro SELECTED POTENTIAL EVENTS FRCU ROUND TWO Shown i n co lumns 2,3, and 4 a r o the upper and l ower q u a r t i l a s and t h e median of the g roup e s t i m a t e s * Your e a r l i e r e s t i m a t e i s i n r e d . In l i g h t o f tho g roup e s t i m a t e s , t h e comments i n Column 5, and the n a t u r e o f tho e v e n t i t s e l f , p l c a i e ea rk y o u r c u r r e n t e s t i m a t e w i th t n " X " . 2) YEAR 3Y WHICH L IKEL iHCOO OF OCCURRENCE REACHES 503 3) LIKELIHOOD OF OCCURRENCE BY J384 *> IMPACT ON ADULT EDUCATION ANTICIPATED 8Y THE GROUP If THE EVENT OCCURS. THE SCALE USED IS AS FOLLOWS: Ui UJ CC C3 t CL 12 I) H» CO UJ - J OJ s> CO 0 Cv_ UJ Ui CC e> *c tn a VG = V e r y Great S G r e a t H » Modera te S « S l i g h t N x None CHANGES OR CAUSES OF CHANGES IN ADULT EDUCATION SUGGESTED IN ROUND 2, ASSUMING THAT THE EVENT OCCURS. PLEASE EVALUATE THESE COMMENTS, USING THE SCALE TO THE RIGHT, AND ADO OTHERS THAT YOU THINK ARE IMPORTANT. 5*. A l l emp loyees who need r e - t r a i n i n g to c a r r y on t h e i r j o b s w i l l be p a i d by t h e i r e e p l y e r s a t t h e saae wage l e v e l d u r i n g t h e i r r e - t r a i n i n g p e r i 3d. i I. . N e v e r . L a t e r 1330 .1580 .1S7C P e r c e r < t . 100 VG A 1 I - T h i s would be e c o n o m i c a l l y f e a s i b l e . - T e c h n o l o g y w i l l / s h o u l d be a c c e p t e d and u n i o n s must r e c o g n i z e , c o - o p e r a t e and encourage r e - t r a i n i n g . - T h i s w i l l r e s u l t f rom i n c r e a s e d job l o a d and r e s p o n s i b i l i t y p l u s use o f n*w t e c h n o l o g y . - W i l l c r e a t e a need f o r a d d i t i o n a l t r a i n i n g programs i n a l l a r e a s . 57« U n i v e r s i t y ( o r c o l l e g e ) i n s t r u c t o r s w i l l t r a v e l ( ba sed on e d u c a t i o n a l needs o f i n d i v i d e a l c o m m u n i t i e s ) r a t her . t han s t u d e n t s . 1 N a v c r L a t e r 1530 .1580 1370 < 100 :° VG \ s' J - T h e r e w i l l be i n c r e a s e d a d m i n i s t r a t i v e r e q u i r e m e n t s r e g a r d i n g o r g a n i z a t i o n o f c l a s s e s . - There w i l l be e x t e n s i v e growth o f e x t e n s i o n d e p t s . o f c o l l e g e s and u n i v e r s i t i e s . - T h i s w i l l make i t p o s s i b l e f o r many p e o p l e t o a t t e n d eng. g r adua te f r e e u n i v e r s i t i e s , someth ing o f t e n i m p o s s i b l e f o r them to do i n the p a s t . 1} SELECTED POTENTIAL EVENTS FROB ROUND TWO Shown i n c o l o n s 2,3, and * arc- the upper and l ower q u e r t i l t s s n d t h e a c d i a n o f the g roup e s t i m a t e s . You r e a r l i e r e o t i s a t e i s i n r e d . In l i g h t o f the ^ r a u p e s t l c a t e s , t h e comments In C o l u n n 5, and the n a t u r e o f the even t i t s e l f , p l e a s e etark y o u r c u r r e n t e s t i m a t e w i th an " X " . 2) YEAR 8Y WHICH LIKELIHOOO OF OCCURRENCE REACHES 50JJ 3J LIKELIHOOD OF OCCURRENCE 8Y i ? S 4 (rf IMPACT ON AOULT EDUCATION ANTICIPATED BY THE GROUP IF THE EVENT OCCURS. TKE SCALE USED IS AS FOLLOWS: UJ UJ ce •* 0. 31 H-ID CO Ul _ J O) L/J to 0 UJ oc e> -r CO VG • Very Great G a Great ti * Modera te S = S l i g h t K » None CHANGES OR CAUSES OF CHANGES IN ADULT EDUCATION SUGGESTEO IN ROUNO 2, ASSUMING THAT THE EVENT OCCURS. PLEASE EVALUATE THESE COMMENTS, USING THE SCALE TO THE RIGHT, AND ADD OTHERS THAT YOU THINK ARE IMPORTANT. a 58. The " o p e n " u n i v e r s i t y c o n c e p t w i l l be i cop leoented In o r d e r t o r e a c h a o r e non r e s i d e n t s t u d e n t s » t l e s s c o s t . r I . N e v e r . L a t e r 1350 .1580 .1570 P e r c e r < i t . 100 150 ~0 VS - T h i s w i l l be a p o l i t i c a l d e c i s i o n . - T h i s i s the r e s u l t of t h e chang ing r o l e o f t h e u n i v e r s i t y . - T h i s p r e s e n t s an untapped s o u r c e o f s t u d e n t s . F r a s e r V a l l e y ' s next c o l l e g e w i l l p r o b a b l y s t a r t w i t h t h i s c o n c e p t . - P o t e n t i a l l y added l o a d t o out o f the way d i s t r i c t s . o2. U n i v e r s i t i e s w i l l e x t e n d post g r a d u a t e ( u n i v e r s i t y g r a d u a t i o n ) e d u c a t i o n t h r o u g h out t h e p r o v i n c e t h r o u g h a e o a b l n a t i o n o f ( a ) eo r re spondene ana (b ) t r a v e l l i n g p r o f e s s o r s who w i l l h o l d week ly week end s e a i n a r s In l e s s p o p u l a t e d a r e a j o f 8 .C . e I Never L o t e r .155-0 .1580 1370 i 100 150 " 0 » VG - T h i s w i l l r e s u l t In s o r e u n i v e r s i t i e s d e v e l o p i n g t h e i r e x t e n s i o n d i v i s i o n s . - The t i a e t a b l i n g o f c o u r s e s w i l l be p l a n n e d i n c o n j u n c t i o n - i t h l o c a l n e e d s , not n e c e s s a r i l y j u s t f o r weekends. - Hany p e o p l e w i l l a t t e n d and g r a d u a t e - e a a e t h l n g o f t e n Impos s ib le i n the p a s t . - Onus w i l l be upon d i r e c t o r s o f A d u l t E d u c a t i o n t o c o - o r d i n a t e t h i s e x t e n s i o n s e r v i c e . 1) SELECTEO POTENTIAL EVENTJ FRO* ROUNO TWO Shown i n c o l t a n s 2,3, and < arc- the upper and l ower q u a r t i l e s and t h e s o d i a n o f t h e g roup e e t i o a t e s . You r e a r l i e r e s t i » a t e i s in r e d . In l i g h t o f the g roup e s t i o i t t s , t h e eoaments In C o l u n n 5, and the n a t u r e o f the event i t s e l f , p l e i j c oa rk your c u r r e n t e s t i o a t e w i th an " X " . 2) YEAR BY V.Vi 1CH LIKELIHOOO OF OCCURRENCE REACHES 50S 3) LIKELIHOOD OF OCCURRENCE BY J-?34 (rf * ) IMPACT ON AOULT EDUCATION ANTICIPATED 8Y THE GROUP IF THE EVENT OCCURS. THE SCALE USED IS AS FOLLOWS: U J U l cc -< a. _-> _3 co UJ - I QJ LO to O U l UJ cc 0 CO 0 VG 1 V e r y Great G * G rea t ii a kSoderate S • S l i g h t N « None CHANGES OR CAUSES OF CHANGES IN AOULT EDUCATION SUGGESTED IN ROUND 2, ASSUMING THAT TKE EVENT OCCURS. PLEASE EVALUATE THESE COMMENTS, USING THE SCALE TO THE RIGHT, AND ADD OTHERS THAT YCU THINK ARE IMPORTANT. t>4. A p r e r e q u i s i t e t e e l l e o p l o y o e n t w i l l be c l a u s e * w r i t t e n i n t o a l l work ing • g r e e o e n t s t h a t u p g r a d i n g o r r e t r a i n i n g w i l l be o f f e r e d t o a l l t h o s e whose p o s i t i o n s a r e phased out th rough t e c h n o -l o g i c a l p r o g r e s s . i' < . N e v e r . L a t e r 1S90 - l J S C . 157C P e r c e r i t . 100 150 VG 4 1 - More c o u r s e s w i l l be needed l o c a l l y f o r r e t r a i n i n g . - T h i s w i l l be the r e s u l t o f un ion d e a a n d s . - Un ions ous t '•« made to see t h e n e c e s s i t y - n 0 -aore " f e a t h e r b e d d i n g " , " g r a n d a o t h e r " c l a u s e s , e t c . - P o s s i b l e i n c r e a s e i n nusber o f d u r s e s t o u n d e r t a k e t h i s upg rad ing f o r s s a l l e r b u s i n e s s e s . > N e v e r L a t e r 1390 .1970 100 " 0 m VG J . M S J APPENDIX E Completed graphed s t a t i s t i c a l indicat r O B I a- ,ser,srccni O T m o I ' npuci 01 each r t . i son j i v e n be low r e l a t i v e to t 'i e f o r e c a s t sho-m (by i) i V I r t ua 1 if I mpo i s I b I« L i t t l e or no ni fect A pr i me f1c t or With a s h o r t e r work week more p e o p l e w i l l be e m p l o y e d , e s p e c i a l l y women The r e w i l l be i n c r e a s e d s e c o n d a r y p r o d u c t i o n based on p r imary i n d u s t r y M a r g i n a l fa rm employment w i l l become p r o p o r t i o n a t e l y l e s s i m p o r t a n t i n o v e r a l l employment p i c t u r e a s t e r t i a r y i n d u s t r y d e v e l o p s Many unemployed a r e unemp loyab le ^j-S-r* P o p u l a t iDO i n c r e a s e g e n e r a l l y — l 1 — r - r r f W Reduct i on o f number o f c h i l d r e n per f a m i l y Pos t war baby b u l g e moving t h r o u g h the o v e r a l l f i g u r e s 1 33 75 100 75 25 100 22 88 75 25 33 ^7 67 77 72 23 1 ! 33| 28; -N3 ,13-tn.irt the s 11 i ' , t i c<> 1 trends ( t o l i d l i n e s ) , the _:roop fleaiin f j r^c i s! (dashed l i n e s ) , and the in ter q u i r t i l e r in je (--.naded a rea ) . Panel 3 ',s«is^t:nt of the impact of each re* ion j iven below re la t ive to the tarec is t shown (by (,) i Vi r tua l ly impossible L i t t l e or no e f f e c t ' A prime f j c t o r ~x, 1. INOI.ATOR THRFF-i INCREASE IN NUMBER EMPLOYED FEMALE 100 More women w i l l p a r t i c i p a t e in l a b o r market a s t r e n d toward i m p o r t a n c e o f ( a ) r o l e a s homemaker and (b ) o f f a m i l y as a u n i t d e c r e a s e s Number o f f e m a l e s employed w i l l i n c r e a s e t o a p o i n i more c l o s e l y a l i g n e d Y\ w i t h number a v a i l a b l e t o work G r e a t e r a c c e p t a n c e o f f ema le s work ing in i n d u s t r y ° « s ' r « f a r s e l f f u l f i l l m e n t o u t s i d e the home B e t t e r f a m i l y p l a n n i n g C o n c e r t e d e f f o r t s o f S t a t u s of Women g roups Most women w i l l r e - e n t e r l a b o r f o r c e a f t e r r a i s i n g f a m i l i e s Too few p a r t t ime j o b s a v a i l a b l e D r a s t i c change t o the more t r a d i t i o n a l f a m i l y u n i t H i ah ( V a n c o u v e r ) Vancouver w i l l m a i n t a i n i t s p r e s e n t p e r c e n t a g e o f t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n i n c r e a s i t H igh ( R o s s l a n d ) Many s m a l l c o m m u n i t i e s have growth p a t t e r n s e x c e e d i n g Vancouver S h i f t t o suburban o r t o r u r a l r e s i d e n t i a l l i v i n g w i th urb an work A sense o f " c o m m u n i t y " w i l l be f o s t e r e d in a l l a r e a s , r e s u l t i n g i n s t a b i l i z i n g o f p o p u l a t i o n s a s a r e s u l t o f Human R e s o u r c e s B o a r d s R e g i o n a l d i s t r i c t s w i l l e x e r t g r e a t e r i n f l u e n c e and c o n t r o l , b r i n g i n g about some u r b a n i z a t i n t o r u r a l a r e a s R u r a l p o p u l a t i o n s w i l l s h i f t f rom one s m a l l community t o a n o t h e r <3l 81 93 100 .75 20 10 50 67 30 33 22 S h o - n a r e t h e s H : r . I i c n 1 t r e n d s ^ s o l i d l i n e s ) , t h e g r o u p n e o i i n f o r ? c i ' . . i ( d a s i t e d l i n e s ) , a n d t h e i n t e r q u a r t i l a . r a n g e ( s h a d e d a r e i ) . P a n e l a s s e s s m e n t o t t h e i m p a c t o t e a c h r e a s o n g i v e n b e l o w r e l a t i v e t o t h e f o r e o s t s h o * n ( b y f ) i V i r t u a l l y i m p o s s i b l e L i t t l e o r no e f f e c t ' A p r i m e f a c t o r -jJL INDICATOR F IVE i NUMBER INSTRUCTORS IN PU8LIS N.S. SYSTEM 12 11 10 9 s .7 b 3 4 3 2 1 0 ••' ; r 1 i i | ! i | "TV : i._.L! ! • | I - - -j- . | _ . . . 4 -1 i 1 ! I ! • i " t r -l-H-H "I'I: h " . j. i t - k i - I+H-| i 1 : --•j -j -1—--j- > ! ! 1 . / ^^ti • > -!•••-{•• \ -r - H -- ! - ! - [ - • • ' '• ! i i -|-i-fHt • ; m l -• ' ! i - ! - H - ! - -i i ... . . . T f l ' ;"l" 1 H-hf-; i ; t i - •-(— i ... •j j-j-u- T \ r f f ' f • i ; t i ;J_ ' 1 ' ' i I 1 J : t ! : ! . . . . | - ^ - r - j • rVS; -i- r-j-i-i- X 1 J .;._;..]., 4 \-\ ! i -h < • I i • •ri-r •!" -i-l--H-—1~—i—1 { t —i— - I ~ - f - H-T !•• -i-U-l-j-; j | ; i i i |-| 1 1 " - -i-i-l-f' - M i •H-r + t 1 _l_ —1— . i i i rrrr r ..i.j_.ui-4--T l f H - •|-{- -01 bb YEAR 71 7° 84 S I X t NUM9ER ADMINISTRATORS IN PUBLIC NIGHT SCHOOLS High S c h o o l d i s t r i c t a d u l t e d u c a t i o n i s more e c o n m i c a l and more e f f i c i e n t t o o p e r a t e than any o t h e r s y s t e n o f a d u l t e d u c a t i o n s A c o l l e g e s e r v i n g many d i s t r i c t s cannot be a s e f f e c t i v e a s l o c a l o r s c h o o l d i s t r i c t c o n t r o l R e s u l t o f p o p u l a t i o n i n c r e a s e Demand f o r c o u r s e s beyond r e g u l a r s c h o o l hours w i l l i n c r e a s e , w h i l e the t r a d i t i o n a l 3 to 3 a p p r o a c h i s d i s c r e d i t d d C r i t e r i a d i c t a t i n g the number o f i n s t r u c t o r s i s e c o n o m i c a l . When p u b l i c a t t i t u d e s u p p o r t s more i n s t r u c t o r s they w i l l be a p p o i n t e d . Community c o l l e g e s w i l l c o n t i n u e to ab so rb s c h o o l d i s t r i c t programs .. !,j A d u l t e d u c a t i o n i s becoming more o f a l i f e s t y l e in the p r o v i n c e X'X^^ Department o f E d u c a t i o n w i l l t a ke a renewed i n t e r e s t in l o c a l c o n t r o l x p a n s i n o f r e s p o n s i b i l i t y f rom s t r i c t l y a d u l t e d u c a t i n t o i n c l u d e c o - o r d i n a t i o n o f community s c h o o l s Community c o l l e g e s w i l l a b s o r b a number o f e x i s t i n g a d m i n i s t r a t o r s C o - o p e r a t i o n between a g e n c i e s a d m i n i s t e r i n g a d u l t e d u c a t i o n w i l l a l l o w f o r a s m a l l e r t ime a l l o t m e n t f rom a d m i n i s t r a t o r s to a d u l t e d u c a t i o n a c t i v i t i e s At p r e s e n t t h e r e a r e a r e s t r i c t e d number o f a d m i n i s t r a t i v e o p p o r t u n i t i e s 53 20 70 70 50 58 31 70 30 30 16 10 25 17 75 58 84 6 l 22 b8 l b 25 9 171 33 67 32 11 Srio -n a r t the s t a t i s t i c a l t r e n d s ( s o l i d l i n e s ) ( o r c c i s t (dasr.ed l i n e s ) , and the (shad ' id a r e a ) . P a n e l a i s t i s t e i l of t he impact o f each r e a s o n g i v e n be low r e l a t i v e to t'ne f o r e c a s t shown (by I) i V i r t ua 1 l y i uposs i b l e L i t t l e o r no e f f e c t ' A p r i m e f a c t o r R e g i o n a l d i s t r i c t s d i f f e r and each i n s t i t u t i o n o f f e r s c o u r s e s t o meet community n e e d s / d e s i r e s w i t h i n the r e s o u r c e s o f t h a t i n s t i t u t i o n Community c o l l e g e s w i l l i n c r e a s i n g l y a d m i n i s t e r more o f t o t a l a d u l t e d u c a t i o n programs S c h o o l d i s t r i c t s w i l l c o n t i n u e to amalgamate U l t i m a t e l y t r e n d w i l l be d e c i d e d on an econraic b a s i s . If e d u c a t i o n t a x i s removed f rom the l a n d then t h e r e w i l l be l e s s c o n c e r n as t o who does t h e j ob 72 33 331 331 28 ^7 67 .INDICATOR EIGHT; ENROLMENTS POST.SEC. NON UNIV. TECH. OB TERMINAL CAREER PROGRAMS 12 i l 10 9 8 7 V 1 i.l | j If . t4.. ..J_ -|-+1t _; i .[-;..;._ ! !' i H 4 i - i - 1 -. ! ..f.. '1 i ' ! ! -Ii tit fl+H - • ;.-(—-i~ T'i~ "II-  i-i : | • : : i i.| ! i 5 ! i, 1 i !-U $ 4J . r|n .UL. -H- :H j i t -; ; -|-r i - ; • r ; i > . - \ -• l ( i • ; i if44 — j I- i- •i H f r -i-l- " 1 " 1 : T 1 t J 1 • : - ! • ! - ! ••!• .1 j ' 1 -! i -; 1 -i ...). ..!.;.- j j 4-• i i i I ... L \/. •\ • i I • i j • u 4 J ; 1 : < w /Ti i 1 . i i • ! 1 ! 1 I-! 1 ' i i i ' ' i ' : ' ' - f ! - • i - • i -1 4 1 " i • 1 i '"! i " j i -!-.- f i ~\\ •It -! i r i - 1 - i — 1 i \1 L ' 1 r - ;TI — * — ! — » - 4- i -' i ' 1 -+ 1 H i j h T e c h n o l o g i c a l change w i l l demand more s p e c i a l i z e d t r a i n i n g ^•-Community c o l l e g e s w i l l c o n t i n u e t h e i r r o l e a s o f f e r i n g p r e p a r a t i o n f o r a d v a n c e d u n i v e r s i t y t r a i n i n g 100 72 bb YEAR 71 7<> 84 28 ;.iown a re if>e s t i . u u c i l i r e n o s I s o i i d l i n e s ) , tne j r o u p iieoiin I o r i c a i t ( d i M ' . t i l l i n e s ) , and the i n t e r q u i r t i l e r a n j e ( s h a d » d a r e i ) . P a n e l a s j ' i s n c i t o t t h e i m p a c t o t e a c h riMson j i v e n b e l o w r e l a t i v e t o t h e f o r e c a s t s h o w n ( b y i ) i V i r t u a l l y i m p o s s i b l e L i t t l e o r no e f f ? c t • A p r ime f i c t o r INEi PART TIME ACAPEMIS (UN IV . TRANSFER) ENROLMENT IN COMMUNITY COLLE3ES -2 5 C 0) T J 3 » 4 o 3 iff C « in n D C o - 1 H i ah I n c r e a s e d l e i s u r e w i l l a l l o w a d u l t s to l e a r n f o r i n t e r e s t r a t h e r than income s e c u r i t y Enhanced r e p u t a t i o n a t community c o l l e g e s f o r academic e x c e l l e n c e Lower f e e s t r u c t u r e ' \ '•, ' Pi C r e a t i o n o f more new c o l l e g e s w i l l p r o v i d e g r e a t e r a cademic o p p o r t u n i t y " ''[ j 4 - ^ - L-'SA L Q W Academic c o u r s e s w i l l not be degree or j ob o r i e n t e d Most a r e a s i n the p r o v i n c e do not have t h i s c o l l e g e f a c i l i t y C o l l e g e s w i l l c o n t i n u e to a t t r a c t par t t ime s t u d e n t s i n t o a v a r i e t y o f programs INOICATOR TEN; N . S . ENROLMENT IN TECHNICAL/VOCATIONAL SCHOOLS High S p e c i a l i z a t i o n w i l l l e a d many t o upgrade f o r employab i l i t y C o l l e g e s p o s s e s s b e t t e r t r a i n i n g o p p o r t u n i t i e s than s c h o o l d i s t r i c t s ^S:?-'rff5 Job i n c e n t i v e s w i l l encou rage e d u c a t i o n a l upg rad ing I n c r e a s e d t e c h n o l o g y and i n c r e a s e d number in l a b o r f o r c e R e l a t e d to a v a i l a b i l i t y o f r e s o u r c e s ) p e o p l e , and equ ipment . As f a c i l i t i e s grow ( p a r t i c u l a r l y i n s m a l l e r ' o u t of t h e way' d i s t r i c t s ) s o w i l l e n r o l m e n t More s p e c i a l p r o j e c t u p g r a d i n g on the job in company t i m e , bo th i n p u b l i c and p r i v a t e s e c t o r o f a d u l t e d u c a t i o n Low E m p l i y e e s w i l l be e x p e c t e d to " q u a l i f y " f o r h i g h e r a p p o i n t m e n t s a t t h e i r own expense 81 25 33 led 13 75 67 |100 5° I 91 63 92 ^ 75| 90 75 12 9 37 8 25| 10 25 55 T,hojn a r e the s t » t i i t i c a 1 ' t r e n d s ( s o l i d l i n e s ) , the :ro. jp a c a i i n for . -c .ast (dashed l i n e s ) , and the i n t e r quart i l e range (shaded a r e a ) . P a n e l a .ssecstft-nt o f the impact of each r e a j o n g i v e n be low r e l a t i v e to the f o r e c a s t shown (by £)i V i r t u a l l y i m p o s s i b l e L i t t l e o r no e f f e c t ' A pr ime f a c t o r 1 INDICATOR ELEVEN: UN I VERS IT IES'OPERAT ING/CAP ITAL EXPENDITURES O p e r a t i n g c o s t s w i l l r i s e , w h i l e number o f g r a d u a t e s w i l l d e c r e a s e I n f l a t i o n a nd an i n c r e a s i n g demand f o r the be s t of equ ipment P r o p o r t i o n o f t o t a l money a l l o c a t e d f o r e d u c a t i o n w i l l become more c o n s t a n t L e s s emphas i s on e x p a n s i o n o f b u i l d i n g s , per s e , and more emphas i s on " r e c y c l i n g " o f p r e s e n t f a c i l i t i e s The c e n t r a l i z e d i n s t i u t i o n c o n c e p t i s r a p i d l y d e c r e a s i n g Community c o l l e g e s w i l l r e c e i v e i n c r e a s i n g l y l a r g e r amounts o f p r o v i n c i a l f u n d i n g f o r pos t sec ndary e d u c a t i o n More emphas i s on peop le than on s t r u c t u r e s P e o p l e w i l l d e s i r e t r a i n i n g in t h e i r own l o c a l e s P r e s e n t p u b l i c image o f the " a v e r a g e " u n i v e r s i t y s tuden t £ ] U n i v e r s i t y p o l i c i e s must expand to i n c l u d e t o t a l c o v e r a g e i n the p r o v i n c e T i e d to p o p u l a t i o n i n c r e a s e , a l t h o u g h u n i v e r s i t i e s have l o s t a g r e a t d e a l ofj h e i r a p p e a l to t h e young U n i v e r s i t y c o n c e p t has become i r r e l e v a n t to l a r g e masses o f the p o p u l a t i o n V o c a t i o n a l , t e c h n o l o g i c a l and c a r e e r programs w i l l be more i n demand 4b 90 50 30 10 33 37 72 U 22 *3 28 33 3b 55 83 the| 75 30 87 17 25 fco 13 24 I f l 23 10 S"o«m a r e the s t a t i s t i c a l t r e n d s ( s o l i d l i n e s ) , the group m e o i i n f o r e c a s t (dashed l i n e s ) , and the i n t e r o u a r i i l e range (shaded a r e a ) . P a n e l assessment of the impact of each r e a i g n g i v e n be low r e l a t i v e to the f o r e c a s t shown (by $) x V i r t u a l l y i m p o s s i b l e L i t t l e o r no e f f e c t " A pr ime f a c t o r INDICATOR THIRTEEN; g .B .C ' S DEPARTMENT ADULT ED. ENROLMENT 5oo 4 00 300 200 100 I n d u s t r i a l demand f o r t r a i n e d p e r s o n n e l Many more w i l l e n t e r the f i e l d a s a d u l t e d u c a t i o n g a i n s r e c o g n i t i o n and t h e number o f o f f e r i n g s i n c r e a s e YEAR '."JLT - i - 4 -•-H-"i"t" • - f - H -4- 4 - ! --! -f-- 1 - S — H -V • M - i - i - r - i . . U : - . l . i - U •f -H+i .4.._:_. .Li: - i - »-! 4 - i - ; -- i - l -L. i ; - l - t --•; -I-.i—u_i T T tft -I _ J U - i • H — I --L. ..L The i n i t i a l i n e r t i a a g a i n s t t r a i n e d a d u l t e d u c a t o r s i s too g r e a t 4b 80 5* 20 87 13 APPENDIX F Completed tables of 24- events selected as most important to future of adult education. -VENT:; S E U ' d - D AS MOST IMPORTANT TO ADULT iDUCATION PC5; s.'i i X r . 'J I U. E.V. NT:; YEAH STY I'iOOO ,f •-•CC I. I M L l'li.100 or U C C I J H K E N C E IMPACT ON AD'JI T EDUCATION AN fI 0 I '-'A ! ~0 BY I ME 3H0UP I." TKf t:VLSI OCCURS. VL] » Very ,>f.'. t G - Cr .-J t M - M.uiirrJ t * s 1 •:. i ; j h t N x None CHAN 3t J 0« C A U ^ S OF CHAN Of IN «DUl J E O ' J C A T ION I- THE E V E N T OCCUKS (•AN:, i. A S ( ; C N T of T H E VlLIOITY j t L A C H I T E M MELA i I V E T O I H E F O R E C A S T S H O « ' . (by 1. V o c a t i o n a l t r a i n i n g w i l l be p r o v i d e d a t no c o s t t o a l l t h o s e who a r e unemployed but e m p l o y a b l e . Never 4 t er V . . lr.oo 1J34 15s 0 1370 * 100 4 L o c a l a d u l t e d u c a t i o n w i l l p robab l y be c a l l e d on to p r o v i d e v o c a t i o n a l c l a s s e s . W i l l r e s u l t in mere l y more e f f i c i e n t o p e r a t i o n o f e x i s t i n g f a c i l i t i e s and more g e n e r a l a w a r e n e s s -The r e s u l t o f i n c r e a s e d t e c h n o l o g y and s h o r t e r work week. F a c i l i t i e s w i l l have to be p r o v i d e d and i n s t r u c t o r s t r a i n e d w i t h i n app roved a r e a s . If t he re i s not e x t e n s i v e l o c a l s u p p o r t , t r a v e l l i n g s t u d e n t ^ would become n e c e s s a r y * There w i l l be more r e - t r a i n i n g o f women •• I ndus t ry w i l l become more automated t h e r e f o r e t r a i n i n g w i l l be e s s e n t i a l to keep p a c e . u 38 80 59 88 9* 36 50 20 41 56 3. Most emp loye r s w i l l f i n d v a l u e i n a d u l t e d u x a t i o n a s a management t o o l . 1384 13?0 4 rlCO 50 Zi More demand f o r a d u l t e d u c a t i o n c o u r s e s . S3 12 Upgrad ing i s in vogue n o w ' 63 31 T h i s w i l l be n e c e s s a r y t o h e l p to c o u n t e r u n i o n demands . 35 53 |>lant e f f i c i e n c y demands t h i s • °3 3 A Employers w i l l a r r a n g e f o r s p e c i f i c c o u r s e s f o r t h e i r s t a f f to be run through n i g h t s c h o o l , wherever p o s s i b l e * 182 | 121 Employers w i l l encourage s t a f f p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n e x i s t i n g a d u l t e d u c a t i o n p rog rams * 7* 1^91 L o c a l l y d e v e l o p e d programs w i l l be demanded p u t t i n g the onu on the d i s t r i c t s to p r o v i d e t h e m . ]\ | 2 3 | 8 . I n c rea se c o s t o f l i v i n g w i l l r e s u l t in f i f t y p e r c e n t o f f a m i l i e s b e i n g s u p p o r t e d by two incomes . V 3 1334 I 9 . I O 1370 More t r a i n i n g programs w i l l . b e r e q u i r e d f o r w ives g o i n g t o work . 94 More p r e - s c h o o l s w i l l be needed - 81 The r e s u l t o f Women's l i b . 29] T e c h n o l o g i c a l demand f o r i n c r e a s e d t r a i n i n g » 81 The r e s u l t o f s t a t u s o f women in s o c i e t y . 5^ 1 There e x i s t s a tremend us need f o r upg rad ing and r e - t r a i n i m women w i th f a m i l i e s . - 7-| P re sen t t r e n d w i l l i n c r e a s e as d e s i r e f o r m a i n t a i n i n g s t a n d a r d of l i v i n g g rows - 1 7' Caused by the d e s i r e >f wives to r e t u r n to work - | ]l\ T h i s c o u l d be upset by a major r e v e r s a l in p r e s e n t t r e n d s which w h i l e i n e v i t a h l e might not o c c u r t i l l a f t e r 158*.. 1^ 7] 6 19 50 19 41 23 18 23 *o J33 A 2 4 E V E N T S S E L E C T - 0 AS KOST IMPORTANT TO ADULT COUCATION ( C o n t ' d . ) f - C . ' - M 1 <t. :.v:.M3 V'.-.Tt BY <"• I 'JH L l-.LI. LIKELIHOOD •or oCCt-WENCE in I M P A C T ON ADULT if m r CVITNI c c c t . VS » V e r y Great G -' J r , - . l t M = Mod era te S *" S l i g h t H * None * E D U C A T I O N A N f 10 I'-'AT"0 iiV T H E ©19UP l.J f ',' -r 0 r . tai t. ' i l . 1; -' T O . b 11 b 12 12 10 C H A N . ; - . : ; 01; C A U - - . : : ; OF C H A N ; ? IN A O U l 1 C in iCA1 ION I f 1 HL E V E N T OCCUiiS P A N . L AS ' iEIV 'V,L"NI -;f n i c • V A L I D I T Y 0> 1.ACH ITEM HE LA i 1 VL TO ! ) i E 1 CHE C A S T b l K ^ N (by l) 10. A p o r t i o n o f the c u r r i c u l u m f o r a l l c h i l d r e n from K to 12 w i l l be d e v o t e d s p a c i f t e a 1 lv t o l i f e -l o n g l e a r n i n g as opposed to e n d -g o a l o r i e n t e d e d u c a t i o n . I Je ver . a t e r 1380 1370 l 100 •50 0 va 1 A J J uausea oy c n a n g m g v a l u e s ana l e i s u r e Time a c t i v i t i e s . W i l l l e a d to e x t e n s i v e upg rad ing on a p a r t t ime b a s i s I n c r a r e d demand f o r s e l f improvement-The r e s u l t o f management p r e s s u r e . May be need f o r academic a d u l t e d u c a t i o n c o u r s e s when i n t e r e s t i n c r e a s e s a s o l o e r , lore peop le w i l l r e t u r n f o r c o n t i n u o u s l e a r n i n g a c t i v i t i e s -A d u l t e d u c a t i o n w i l l be o n s i d e r e d pa r t i f l i v i n g l i k e bed and s l e e p t h a t i n d i v i d u a l s need and d e s i r e -" F o r m a l i z e d " t e a c h i n g w i l l d e c r e a s e . R e c r e a t i o n a l a c t i v i t i e s w i l l be those o f g r e a t e s t impor tanc In t h e o r y , t h i s c o u l d add to the number o f young a d u l t s s e e k i n g academic e d u c a t i o n to make up f o r what they mi s sed in younger d a y s * S8 50 78 83 44 40 ' *7 50 12 22 22 44 22 17 44 fao 41 40 15. There w i l l be a 30$ i n c r e a s e i n en ro lment in the 30-44 y e a r s age g roup a d u l t e d u c a t i o n p u b l i c n i g h t s c h o o l programs (beyond the norma l i n c r e a s e t i e d to p o p u l a t i o n . Never L a t e r 1^0 • 1370 I C O , " 5 ° ^ 0 V i ! J More v a r i e t y in c o u r s e s w i l l be r e q u i r e d . Need f o r c o n t i n u e s r a t h e r than " o n c e i n l i f e t i m e " t r a i n i n g w i l l i n c r e a s e enro lment in many d i f f e r e n t ' t y p e s o f a d u l t e d u c a t i o n programs-P re sen t secondary s c h o o l bu l ge w i l l h i t n i g h t s c h o o l i n 17+ age b r a c k e t -G r e a i e r demand f o r r e c r e a t i o n as w e l l a s u p g r a d i n g programs Inc rease need in a l l a s p e c t s o f normal r e s o u r c e s (human and ma te r i a 1) .. 10c 9* 59 75 b3 b (1 25 57 l6. P r o v i n c i a l l y o p e r a t e d c h i l d c a r e c e n t r e s ( under k) and drop i n c e n t r e s ( 0 t o 12*) w i l l be p r o v i d e d l o c a l l y . I • ' Never L a t e r . I330 . l J . ' U L 137c < 1^00 • 50 . 0 Va ! W i l l f r e e women t o work t h e r e b y i n c r e a s i n g t r a i n i n g o f the women » More dayt ime a d u l t e d u c a t i o n o f f e r i n g s * W i l l a l l o w more i n d i v i d u a l s t o pursue p a r t a n d / o r f u l l t ime t r a i n i n g • Caused by i n c r e a s e i n l a b o r f o r c e and p r e - r e au i s i t e t r a i n i n The b u i l d u p o f need f o r such f a c i l i t i e s i s e x p e c t e d to be f o l l o w e d by a r e v e r s a l -73 88 5* 77 18 22 b 6 17 32 2 e 50 2 4 E V E N T S SELLCT -0 AS MOST IMPORTANT TO ADULT EDUCATION ( O o n t ' d ) s r u t v , T I » L E V. •J N T : ; YE Art BY 1'iOCD occ M L S S C . J LIKELIMOOO CF C U H H E K C S ; (0 I M P A C T O N A D U I T E O L I F I M E E V E N T O C C U R S . J A T I O N A N 1 I C I'j A ! E O BY T H E G'rt'lUP Very Oreal Cr C J t MuJera t r S l i g h t None C H A N : r : ; on C A I S I E S o r C H A N G E I N A D U L T EOUCATION I* T H E E V E N T OCCURS P A N E L ASsrr,;.;y;!:.NT C F I H E ; V A L I D I T Y or E ^ C H I T E M RCLAIIVE T3 1 H E FORECAST K H O . N (by f) 2 2 . A l l o r g a n i z e d commun i t i e s w i l p r o v i d e f r e e " n e i g h b o u r h o o d " c o u n s e l l i n g s e r v i c e s and program p l a n n i n g f o r a l l a d u l t s who d e s i r e them r e g a r d i n g upg rad ing t h e i r educa t i o n . Never Li t e r 1.135-° 1 J 3 4 i960 1370 A - 0 A d m i n i s t r a t o r s , c u n s e l l o r s , and t e a c h e r s needed i n g r e a t e r numbers * F o r the f i r s t t ime a 11 pe r son s may be a b l e to get a c l e a r p i c t u r e o f where t h e i r l i v e s a r e go ing and what they want f rom l i f e . T h i s would c r e a t e a g rea t upsurge in a l l educa t iona1 a reas • T h i s w i l l r e s u l t i n i n c r e a s e d i n t e r e s t and p a r t i c i p a t i o n in a d u l t e d u c a t i o n p r o g r a m s ' T h i s s e r v i c e w i l l be p r o v i d e d by the Department o f E d u c a t i o i J More a d m i n i s t r a t i v e a s s i s t a n t s n e e d e d * L o c a l a d u l t e d u c a t i o n w i l l be r e q u i r e d t o o r g a n i z e and a d m i n i s t e r c o u n s e l l i n g s e r v i c e i f they a r e expanded t o the ne i ghbourhood l e v e l * 881 45 B 75 63 45 23 271 l 5 31 2 4 . Community s c h o o l s w i l l d e v e l o p under the a d m i n i s t r a t i o n o f the p u b l i c s c h o o l s y s tem w i th a d u l t e d u c a t i o n p e r s o n n e l . ,100 50 More backgr und and t r a i n i n g w i l l be needed f o r a d u l t e d u c a t i o n a d m i n i s t r a t i v e p e r s o n n e l ' Emphasis w i l l not be on a d u l t e d u c a t i o n but on f e e l i n g o f community -T h i s i s d e f i n i t e l y a long range t r e n d * . Onus w i l l be on the d i s t r i c t to c o - o r d i n a t e t h i s t ype of l e a r n i n g . . T h i s c o n c e p t i s the b e s t way o f j u s t i f y i n g the t a x d o l l a r s spent on s c h o o l f a c i l i t i e s and us ing t h o s e f a c i l i t i e s . Changes w i l l be m a i n l y i n the scope and h ; r i z o n o f a d u l t educat i c n . 59 60 52 94 50 82 35 25 35 27 D 1370 26. F i f t y i o f s c h o o l s w i l l encourage c ommunity p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n b ot h f e r m a l and i n f e r n a l p rograms a f t e r s c h o o l , i n the e v e n i n g , and on weekends. 100 50 There w i l l be more a d m i n i s t r a t i v e t a s k s f o r a d u l t e d u c a t i o n p e r s o n n e l * Pa r t i c i p a t i o n f rom s c h o o l s in a c t i v e enc uragement o f a d u l t e d u c a t i o n would c r e a t e new i n t e r e s t and a p p r o v a l . T h i s would i n c r e a s e a c t u a l enro lment numbers g r e a t l y The p u b l i c a r e r e q u e s t i n g now and w i l l demand i t w i t h i n j a few y e a r s . The pa r t i c i pat i c n c o u l d e a s i l y be incorporate w i t h i n the community s c h o o l c o n c e p t , to be a d m i n i s t e r e d b y t h e d i r e c t o r of a d u l t e d u c a t i o n in c o n j u n c t i o n w i th schools.] A d u l t educat ion might b e r e q u i r e d to get more i n v o l v e d and a s s i s t in the c o - o r d i n a t i c n . 88 7 0 d 50 70 24 38 j 24 1370 2* EVENTS SELECTED AS MOST 'IMPORTANT TO AOULT EDUCATION ( C o n t ' d . ) •NT I U. Y E AR BY -'•! ion I NEE I'lOOy :.F OCCwRULNOE REACHES LIKELIHOOD OF OCC-.'HuENCE <M !jH4 IMPACT ON A Dli Ei)Ui;V; ION ANTIOI'-MIEO HY THE -JKOUP I" THE EVEN I OCCURS. VO * Very . ' . r - i t Ore a t Vadera t e S l i . j h t None CHAN SEC OR C A U S E . ' ? OF CHAN'IE | N ADUl T EDUCATION I? THE EVENT OCCilRS PA'.L L 'ASIC E-i'r.EiN T OF THE V U . 101 TY 0- EACH: ITEM HEI.A1 IVE T J THE FORECAST SHOWN (by f) 27. A f u l l t ime n i g h t s c h o o l d i r e c t o r ( p u b l i c n i g h t s c h o o l ) in each s c h o o l d i s t r i c t o f f e r i n g n i g h t s c h o o l c o u r s e s w i l l be a ppo i n t e d . V3 1 100 50 |Present t r e n d s po in t t o e x t e n s i o n of s c h o o l day and t o ' b r o a d e n i n g o f age g roups s e r v e d -The n a t u r a l i n c r e a s e in p r o v i n c i a l in vo l vement w i l l g i v e more o p p o r t u n i t y f o r the i n d i v i d u a l in the communit y * Th i «r w i l l o n l y happen in d i s t r i c t s w i th g r e a t a n d / o r g rowing p o p u l a t i o n s and w-u ld r e s u l t i n an i n c r e a s e i n a d m i n i s t r a t i v e work -A much more v i t a l p r o v i n c i a l program would d e v e l o p -There w i l l be more peop le i n v o l v e d w i t h a d u l t e d u c a t i o n -E v e r y o n e i n B .C . w i l l have a c c e s s to v a r y i n g d e g r e e w i th a d u l t e d u c a t i o n s e r v i c e s * On l y f e a s i b l e i f s m a l l e r d i s t r i c t s ama l gamate * L a r g e l y dependent on p o p u l a t i o n growth *> 32 50 71) 77! 82 41 h 14 |31 6 23 le 52 40 29 14 1$ 23 7 6 32. C o - o r d i n a t i c n o f a d u l t e d u c a t i o n s e r v i c e s a t the r e g i c n a l and l o c a l l e v e l w i l l be i n s t i t u t e d under the a u s p i c e s o f the Department o f E d u c a t i o n . •ICO T h i s w i l l r e s u l t i n d i r e c t i o n , f u n d i n g , d e v e l o p m e n t , e t c . t o t he whole a d u l t educat ion movement •> New i n t e r e s t i n a d u l t e d u c a t i o n f rom the Depar tment o f E d u c a t i o n w i l l c r e a t e more f i n a n c i a l s u p p o r t wh ich i n t u r n , w i l l c r e a t e b e t t e r c o u r s e s , t r a i n e d i n s t r u c t o r s , and i n c r e a s e d e n r o l m e n t * Such c o - o r d i nat ion would p r o v i d e i n f o r m a t i o n , a s s i s t a n c e i n p rogramming , and a v o i d o v e r l a p * 7'I 83 82 18 11 181 1370 3*. A c o - o r d i n a t o r o f a d u l t e d u c a t i o n s e r v i c e s w i l l be a p p o i n t e d p r o v i n c i a l l y t hrough t he Department o f E d u c a t i o n . 1334 19 HO 1370 100 L50 T h i s w i l l r e s u l t in long needed d i r e c t i o n f r o j one a u t h o r i t y .• Improve s t a t u s of a d u l t e d u c a t i o n • C r e a t e c h a n n e l s which have not been a v a i l a b l e t o a d m i n i s t r a t o r s up t o ' t h i s p o i n t . P r o v i d e i n f o r m a t i o n , a s s i s t i n programming and a v o i d o v e r l a p * 7 0 83 78 20 5 78B22 id 12 16 16 24 t.VL"«T5 SELECTED. AS MOST IMPORTANT 10 AOULT EDUCATION ( C o n t ' d . ) P O T E N T I A L i.\'i>n: Y E AW H Y ,'>;i:H l 1 S E . L I M 0 0 D E R GCi;'i.<Hr.?.:c: i<LACMLS jr» 3^. F i f t y t o f o p e r a t i n g c o s t s o f n i g h t s c h o o l programs w i l l be p r o v i d e d th rough p r o v i n c i a l f u n d s . Never Later 15)0 1^3 0 137< i I K E I . I H ' J O O OF ncc:;rini N C C » Y ' - J D 4 10 i 100 50 IMr'ACT ON A D M I T EDUCAT I )N A.N'TIC l°A!ED H Y THE 3H0UP I" THE EVENf OCCURS. Vi ~ V e r y Crr.i t C = Of c a t M ' Mod e r a U s s l i gh t N •* None C H A K S E S ;)« CV.IStS O F C H A N IE I N AUUl. T E D U C A T I ON I ? 1 H E E V E N T O C C U R S PA M L A S V . E V 4t NI Of I H E V U !.')! T Y Of EACH I f EV. R E L i l IVE T O THE F O R E C A S T s;u.,N (by /) R e c o g n i t i o n >f the p o s s i b l e d i r e c t i o n f o r i n c l u s i o n In t e a c h e r - p u p i l r a t i o w i l l h e l p -Enab le a g r e a t i n c r e a s e i n the number o f c o u r s e s o f f e r e d as enro lment numbers w>uld not be the pr ime f a c t o r s i n p r e s e n t i n g the se c o u r s e s > E a s i e r to o f f e r c o u r s e s a t t r a c t i n g few s t u d e n t s , t h e r e f o r e more v a r i e d programs » Fi'na n c i a l s t a b i l i t y would t ake the " p r e s s u r e " o f f « Would p r o v i d e o p p o r t u n i t i e s to those who w u l d not p a r t i c i p a t e p r e v i o u s l y because they l i v e in s p a r s e l y p o p u l a t e d a r e a s f More v a r i e d and b e t t e r programming w i t h i n t h e f i n a n c i a l range o f more p e o p l e -50 5 Y 83 88 88 9*1 881 17 12 12 b 12 37. Community c o l l e g e s w i l l a b s o r b 25? o f p re se nt pub l i e p u b l i c s c h o o l a d u l t e d u c a t i o n a d m i n i s t r a t o r s . • Never La t e r . 1^30 I334 1;«0 1370 <3 C O 50 L o c a l a d m i n i s t r a t o r s would s t i l l be s e r v i n g d i s t r i c t s f o r l o c a l communica t ion but would be work ing as p a r t o f c o l l e g s t a f f r e s i d e n t o u t s i d e the campus-T h i s would r e p r e s e n t a p o l i t i c a l d e c i s i o n * There would be l e s s l o c a l au tonomy. T h i s would presumably make the a d u l t e d u c a t i o n a d m i n i s t r a t e an employee of the c o l l e g e r a t h e r than the s c h o o l d i s t r i c t which w - u l d have both advan tage s and d i ' a d v a n t a g e s * 72 35 *5 61 22 *7 33 39 33. Community c o l l e g e s w i l l have b r a n c h e s i n eve ry community i n 3 . C . w i t h a p o p u l a t i o n of 1 9 , C 0 0 * . Never La t e r 1330 C o l l e g e s w i l l a d m i n i s t e r the c o - o r d i n a t i 0 T h i s would r e s u l t i n a program more s o p h i s t i c a t e d , more . c o s t l y , and l e s s r e s p o n s i v e to community • The a d m i n i s t r a t i o n a t the l o c a l l e v e l o f c o l l e g e c o u r s e s wi 11 d i « a p p e a r • A d u l t e d u c a t i o n s e r v i c e s w i l l be expanded* W i l l make a d u l t e d u c a t i o n a d m i n i s t r a t o r s employees o f the c o l l e g e r a t h e r than the d i s t r i c t with subsequent advan tages and d i s a d v a n t a g e s > 35 46 78 °3; 25 12 22 32 4 1370 2* EVENT" SELECTED- AS MOST IMPORTANT TO ADULT EDUCATION ( C o n t ' d . ) EEi:-' <:'<: o i - U 1 -E :«T I M : v: N i ' , YEAH SY i OH L l ^ i 1.1 ''000 of OCf;)i.'»«lKC" LlKELIHOOO OF C'.iftuENCE C O IMrMCI ON AOUl T EDUCATION ANT IC ! o A ! E 0 BY THE GHOUP I" T i l l EVENT OCCURS. VO * V e r y G r e a t G = C . t v . U M J S N i d e r a I » S - S l i g h t N ' None C!lANOf.3 OK CAUSES OF CHAN.!? IN AOULT FOUCA1 IF THE" EVENT OCCllrtS I ON PAN: L ASSES' E N T OF I HE V At ! 0 I T Y Or EACH I TiM HfclATIVE TO THE \ OKECAS1 SHO,N ( b y I) 4 1 . A l l u n i v e r s i t i e s , c o l l e g e s , s c h o o l d i s t r i c t a d u l t e d u c a t i o n a nd r e c r e a t ion commis s ions w i l l c o - o r d i n a t e t h e i r a c t i v i t i e s to av o i d o v e r l a p of s e r v i c e s N e v r. r Later l j jo l j S 4 138 0 1370 vo A C o l l e g e s w i l l a d m i n i s t e r t h e c o - o r d i n a t i o n * Th i s would r e s u l t i n i n c r e a s e d e f f i c i e n c y o f o p e r a t i o n , and w ide r v a r i e t y o f c o u r s e s . The a d m i n i s t r a t i v e s t r u c t u r e w u l d c h a n g e . Would r e s u l t i n more e f f i c i e n t use o f r e s u r c e s w i t h i n the coramun i ty -T h i s s h o u l d mean b e t t e r community s e r v i c e • ;39 331 5° I 701 ?2 4 3 . A l l a d u l t e d u c a t i o n a c t i v i t i e j s w i l l be a sha red r e s p o n s i b i l i t y b between p u b l i c n i g h t s c h o o l s and community c o l l e g e s . Never L a t e r 1;30 '1384 1 /S0 1970 VO Would r e s u l t i n an i n c r e a s e i n exchange o f i d e a s . T h i s w i l l a f f e c t c o l l e g e s not a d u l t e d u c a t i o n programs n e c e s s a r i l y ^ S c h o o l boards w i l l s upp l y f a c i l i t i e s w h i l e c o l l e g e s w i l l c o - o r d i n a t e a d u l t e d u c a t i o n . 71 35 70 4 6 . S p e c i f i c on the job programs w i l l be d e v e l o p e d t o a l l e v i a t e boredom in t e d i o u s o r r e p e t i t i o u s i n d u s t r i a l o r f a c t o r y j o b s . T h i s would be the r e s u l t o f m T e demand f o r u p g r a d i n g -T h i s i s done now in i n d u s t r y -P o t e n t i a l change i f a d u l t e d u c a t i o n were to be i n v o l v e d wit a n d / o r c o - o r d i n a t i n g such programs • 53! 25 75 1370 2 4 E V E N T 3 SELECTED AS MOST IMPORTANT TO ADULT EDUCATION (Cont'd.) • I M. ' 0 :VENTS Y E A S ' SY I Kit!"000 LIKELIHOOD OF COCEKKENOE in IMPACT ON A Dill. T EDUCAT ION ANT I 3 I "A 1 IE 0 8 Y 1 M E SHOUP IE THE EVEN! OCCURS. VO s Very Great P A N E I ASSES:- M -.NT OF THE ' G 3 Great CHAN SE S CAUSES OF VAl. K 1 TY 01 E -iCH ITEM M Mod era t e CH AN SE I N ADULT EDUCATION HI! LA I IVE IE) T HE FORECAST S . S l i g h t 1 ' THE EVENT OCCL'iiS 5H0«'\ (>»/ i) N Norse 53- Community c o l l e g e s and i n d u s t r y w i l l " " s h a r e " p e r s o n n e l i n o r d e r tha t c o l l e g e s can p r o v i d e job t r a i n i n g f a c i l i t i e s a nd programs s u i t a b l e f o r chang ing employment needs i n i n d u s t r y . V 3 i 100 T h e r e w i l l be an i n c r e a s e d use o f para p r o f e s s i o n a l s • C o l l e g e s and v o c a t i o n a l i n s t i t u t i o n s w i l l become more d i s t i n c t -82 24 12 41 54. A l l employees who need r e -t ra in ing to carry .n t h e i r jobs w i l l be paid by the i r employers at the Same wage l e v e l during the i r re - t ra in ing per iod . rlCO 50 T h i s ' w o u l d be e c o n o m i c a l l y f e a s i b l e • 16S T e c h n o l o g y w i l l / s h o u l d be a c c e p t e d and u n i o n s must r e c o g n i z e , c o - o p e r a t e and encourage r e - t r a i n i n g » T h i s w i l l r e s u l t from i n c r e a s e d job l o a d and r e s p o n s i b i 1 i ^ p l u s use o f new techno logy . W i l l c r e a t e a need f o r a d d i t i o n a l t r a i n i n g programs i n a l l a r e a s . 25 25 25 b 1370 57» U n i v e r s i t y ( o r c o l l e g e ) i n s t r u c t o r s w i l l t r a v e l ( ba sed on e d u c a t i o n a l needs o f i n d i v i d u a l c o m m u n i t i e s ) r a t h e r than s t u d e n t s . <6 100 50 There w i l l be i n c r e a s e d a d m i n i s t r a t i v e r e q u i r e m e n t s r e g a r d i n g o r g a n i z a t i o n o f c l a s s e s -T h e r e w i l l be e x t e n s i v e growth o f e x t e n s i o n d e p a r t m e n t s o f c o l l e g e s and u n i v e r s i t i e s * T h i s w i l l make i t p o s s i b l e f o r many peop le t i a t t e n d and g r a d u a t e f rom u n i v e r s i t i e s , something o f t e n i m p o s s i b l e f o r them to do in the past « 53 9* 88 41 b 12 1370 2 4 ; ; EVENTS SELECTED AS MOST IMPORTANT TO AOULT EOUCATION SELECTva YEAR BY «'HICH LIVELIHOOD Of LIKELIHOOD OF OCCURRENCE OT 1304 IMPACT ON AOUI T 1" THE EVENT O C C U EDUCATION ANTICI'-'ATEO BY. THE RS. GROUP - 1— 'it •' •-CC • v.. HO I S N ' T 1 U. EVENTS O C C U R ; HE A C H E E N C E o yn VO * Very Ores t G " Ore.it V. 3 Mode ra t e S - S l ight N J None CHANSES O R C A U S E S OF CHANOE I N ADULT EOUCATION 1" THE EVENT OCCURS P A N E L ASSESSMENT Of THE 'VALIDITY OF EACH ITEM RELATIVE TO THE FORECAST SHU.'N (by }} •' r3 »— • \Z~> • CD \i 1 1 U cr to «T t-'» • O ru 0 58. The "open" univers i ty concept w i l l be implemented in order to reach more non r esident students at less co s t . fever .a ter .1230 .1,84 1330 < 1 100 •30 V3 1 < J This w i l l be a p o l i t i c a l decision.-This is the i»etult f the changing role of the un ivers i ty . This present an untapped source of students. Fraser Val le co l lege w i l l prob ab ly start with th i s concept. Potent ia l l y added load to out of the way d i s t r i c t s » 53 59 75 75 35 41 13 13 b b 6 1370 ' 0 J f>2. Univ e r s i t i e s w i l l extend post graduate education thr ughout the province through a comb inat icn of ^ c o r r e s -pondence and (b) trav e l l i n g professors who w i l l hold weekly week end seminars in less populated areas of B.C. / Never Later . 1390 1384 1380 < [100 •50 0 V 3 1 This w i l l resu l t in more un iver s i t ie s developing the i r extension a i v i s i o n s -The t imetabling of o u r s e s w i l l be planned in conjunction with l o ca l needs» not necessari ly Just f o r weekends-to ny people w i l l attend and graduate- something often impossible in the past • Onus w i l l be upon d irectors of adult education to co -ordinate th is extension se rv i ce -83 78 b l 33 17 22 33 39 22 ' 1370 J Never I _ Later '100 I ii 1 • 1330 . 1934 1H00 • , 5 ° 0 1 ! ] 1 1370 ft CTY 

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