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The future for adult education in British Columbia : a Delphi forecast Aitken, Mary Elizabeth 1975

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THE FUTURE FOR ADULT EDUCATION IN BRITISH COLUMBIA : A DELPHI FORECAST by MARY ELIZABETH AITKEN B.A., U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h Columbia, 1959*  A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF ARTS i n the F a c u l t y of Education  We accept t h i s t h e s i s as conforming t o t h e required  standard  THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA J u l y , 1975  In p r e s e n t i n g t h i s  thesis  an advanced degree at the L i b r a r y s h a l l I  fulfilment of  the requirements f o r  the U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h Columbia,  make i t  freely available  f u r t h e r agree t h a t p e r m i s s i o n  for  for  I agree  r e f e r e n c e and  f o r e x t e n s i v e copying o f t h i s  that  study. thesis  s c h o l a r l y purposes may be granted by the Head of my Department or  by h i s of  in p a r t i a l  this  written  representatives. thesis  is understood that copying or p u b l i c a t i o n  f o r f i n a n c i a l gain s h a l l  permission.  Department of  Adult  Education  The U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h 2075 Wesbroqk P l a c e V a n c o u v e r , Canada V6T 1W5  Date  It  August 6, 1975  Columbia  not  be allowed without my  ii  ABSTRACT In order to predict the possible future of adult education i n B r i t i s h Columbia over a period of ten years to 1984,  a panel composed of 20 adult education d i r e c t o r s com-  pleted t h i s Delphi forecasting study whose objective was to extrapolate current trends i n adult education and to e s t a b l i s h s p e c i f i c goals f o r those who w i l l be involved i n making decisions a f f e c t i n g future adult education p o l i c y . The methodology employed was that of the Delphi f o r e casting technique.  The instruments' designs were a modifi-  cation of those u t i l i z e d by Enzer, et a l . i n t h e i r study: Some Prospects f o r S o c i a l Change by 1985 and t h e i r Impact on Time/Money Budgets. The study was conducted over a period of s i x months with three sequential rounds of questionnaires.  The f i r s t  questionnaire displayed t h i r t e e n graphed s t a t i s t i c a l indicators r e f l e c t i n g trends from 1961 to 1971 i n areas relevant to adult education.  Each i n d i c a t o r was accompanied by three  possible developments r e l a t e d to the future changes i n the indicator.  The panel's responses to t h i s material became the  basis f o r the second  questionnaire.  The portion of the study dealing with the graphed s t a t i s t i c a l indicators was completed with the return of the second questionnaire.  The second portion of the study which  dealt with projected p o t e n t i a l events, t h e i r l i k e l i h o o d of  iii occurrence by 1984-, t h e i r estimated e f f e c t on a d u l t and the expected changes i n a d u l t education  should  education, the  events  occur c o n s t i t u t e d the m a t e r i a l f o r both the second and questionnaires. questionnaire,  third  From 64- p o t e n t i a l events l i s t e d on the  second  the p a n e l narrowed the number of p o t e n t i a l  events t o 29 f o r r e - e v a l u a t i o n on the t h i r d T h i s i n f o r m a t i o n p l u s the e x t r a p o l a t e d  questionnaire.  graphed t r e n d s  comprised  the f i n a l d a t a f o r a n a l y s i s . The  d a t a r e c e i v e d were b o t h o b j e c t i v e and  subjective.  With b o t h p o r t i o n s o f the study the t o t a l group response was  considered  (as i n a l l D e l p h i s t u d i e s ) to l i e i n the median,  t h e r e f o r e the r e s u l t s were analyzed response.  Consensus was  p a n e l agreement, and  o n l y through the median  s e t at a 70 percent  (or h i g h e r )  t h i s consensus i n a d d i t i o n t o the number  of r e i t e r a t i o n s o f any i n d i v i d u a l t r e n d c o n s t i t u t e d the of the  refining  data. An a n a l y s i s of the p a n e l ' s responses as w e l l as  implications revealed  seven s p e c i f i c trends  i n adult  the  education.  These trends were then c o r r e l a t e d i n t o goals presumed t o  be  o f primary importance i n the next decade f o r those i n v o l v e d i n d e c i s i o n making i n the f i e l d of a d u l t e d u c a t i o n . g o a l s were: the expansion o f t e c h n i c a l and v o c a t i o n a l c o - o r d i n a t i o n of a d u l t education  These facilities,  s e r v i c e s , t r a i n i n g of a l l  a d u l t educators, r e c o g n i t i o n o f and  adjustment t o the  changing  r o l e s o f B r i t i s h Columbia's community c o l l e g e s and u n i v e r s i t i e s by a d u l t educators, the r e c o g n i t i o n o f and  subsequent  adjust-  ment t o the changing r o l e of women i n the l a b o r f o r c e , the  expansion and usage of e x i s t i n g p u b l i c s c h o o l f a c i l i t i e s t o embrace c o n t i n u i n g e d u c a t i o n a c t i v i t i e s and the r e c o g n i t i o n of the e q u a l i t y o f the s t a t u s of a d u l t e d u c a t i o n w i t h p r e s e n t p u b l i c school education. a list  Accompanying each o f the g o a l s  was  of s u p p o r t i n g events through which the g o a l s might be  achieved. I t i s an e s t a b l i s h e d f a c t t h a t i n a world o f r a p i d t e c h n o l o g i c a l change there can be a c h o i c e of f u t u r e s .  How-  ever, many r o u t e s or paths should be examined i n order t o choose the f u t u r e most d e s i r a b l e i n terms of achievement of objectives. The  c o n c l u s i o n s o f t h i s study should be  t h e r e f o r e as r e p r e s e n t i n g one  considered  o f a number of p o s s i b l e d i r -  e c t i o n s through which the b e s t p o s s i b l e f u t u r e f o r a d u l t e d u c a t i o n i n B r i t i s h Columbia may  be  implemented.  V TABLE OF CONTENTS Page LIST OF TABLES  v i i  ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS  viii  Chapter 1.  RATIONALE  ,.  2  BACKGROUND  5  SCOPE  7  PLAN OF THESIS  8  2.  REVIEW OF LITERATURE  3.  PROCEDURE  4.  1  INTRODUCTION  9 18  POPULATION AND SAMPLE  18  THE INSTRUMENTS  19  Q u e s t i o n n a i r e One  20  Q u e s t i o n n a i r e Two  22  Q u e s t i o n n a i r e Three  24  FINDINGS TRENDS AND FORCES S t a t i s t i c a l Indicators PROBABILITY AND SEQUENCE OF EVENTS  26 .  27 27 36  1974. - 198O  37  1980 - 1984-  4-9  vi Chapter 5.  Page GOALS FOR ADULT EDUCATION IN BRITISH COLUMBIA  . .  57  SUMMARY  57  SPECIFIC TRENDS  62  GOALS FOR ADULT EDUCATION  72  CONCLUSIONS  77  REFERENCES CITED  80  SOURCE OF STATISTICAL INDICATORS  82  APPENDIX A .  83  APPENDIX B  85  APPENDIX C  101  APPENDIX D  127  APPENDIX E  146  APPENDIX F  154  vii  LIST OF TABLES Table  Page  1.  Projected S t a t i s t i c a l  I n d i c a t o r s f o r 1984  2.  Chronology of P o t e n t i a l Events  . . .  58 59-61  viii  ACMOWLEDGEMENTS I wish t o acknowledge the c o n t r i b u t i o n s both i n time and e x p e r t i s e o f my a d v i s e r , Dr. Gary D i c k i n s o n , and o f my panel: Mrs. D. Clode - D i r e c t o r o f Adult E d u c a t i o n , Lake Cowichan, B.C. Mr. L . Skipsey - V i c e P r i n c i p a l ( C o n t i n u i n g E d u c a t i o n ) , Nanaimo, B.C. Mrs.  B. Wiggins - M u l t  E d u c a t i o n D i r e c t o r , P o r t Hardy, B.C.  Mr. F. Gumley - D i r e c t o r o f A d u l t E d u c a t i o n , P o w e l l R i v e r , B.C. Mr.  J . Urquhart  - D i r e c t o r o f A d u l t E d u c a t i o n , Quesnel, B.C.  Mr. L . O ' N e i l l - D i r e c t o r o f A d u l t E d u c a t i o n , Okanagan C o l l e g e , Salmon Arm, B.C. Mr. A. Coulson - C o - o r d i n a t o r o f C o n t i n u i n g Richmond, B.C. Ms.  Education,  D. Edmondson - D i r e c t o r o f A d u l t E d u c a t i o n , T r a i l , B.C.  Mr. N. T u r i k , D i r e c t o r o f A d u l t E d u c a t i o n , Vernon, B.C. Mr. R. Craven - D i r e c t o r of A d u l t E d u c a t i o n , Abbotsford, B.C. Mr.  E . P a l l e s o n - D i r e c t o r o f A d u l t E d u c a t i o n , Burnaby, B.C.  Mrs. D. R i t c h i e - D i r e c t o r o f A d u l t E d u c a t i o n , R i v e r , B.C.  Campbell  Mr. G. F r y - V i c e P r i n c i p a l ( C o n t i n u i n g E d u c a t i o n ) , Coquitlam, B.C. Mr. V. C a m i l l e r i - D i r e c t o r o f C o n t i n u i n g Courtenay, B.C. Mr.  Education,  A. Kutzner - D i r e c t o r o f A d u l t E d u c a t i o n , D e l t a , B.C.  Mrs. J . Johnson - D i r e c t o r o f A d u l t E d u c a t i o n , F o r t S t . John, B.C. Mr.  R. Wood - D i r e c t o r o f A d u l t E d u c a t i o n , Nelson, B.C.  Mr. F. Baxter - A d m i n i s t r a t o r o f C o n t i n u i n g Sidney, B.C. Mr.  Education,  S. Gowland - D i r e c t o r o f A d u l t E d u c a t i o n , Kelowna, B.C.  Chapter 1 INTRODUCTION The r e s u l t s o f a r e c e n t American D e l p h i study  utilizing  a p a n e l composed of p u b l i c s c h o o l a d m i n i s t r a t o r s , d i r e c t o r s of v o c a t i o n a l h i g h s c h o o l s , t e a c h e r s , guidance c o u n s e l l o r s and u n i v e r s i t y p e r s o n n e l i n d i c a t e d t h a t the h i g h e s t p r i o r i t y i n e d u c a t i o n i n the f u t u r e i s the need "to develop a d u l t e d u c a t i o n programs based on s p e c i f i c needs o t h e r than the h i g h s c h o o l e q u i v a l e n c y programs." (22:137)  To-day i n B r i t i s h  Columbia a d u l t e d u c a t i o n has experienced a p e r s i s t e n t unprecedented  and  growth where o s t e n s i b l y the s p e c i f i c needs of  a d u l t s are b e i n g met.  The f u t u r e development of. a d u l t edu-  cation, however, i s l e s s c l e a r . P o l i c y Research  Timothy Weaver o f the E d u c a t i o n a l  Center has s t a t e d t h a t : " D e l p h i , i n combination  w i t h o t h e r methods, i s a potent d e v i c e f o r t e a c h i n g people t o t h i n k about the f u t u r e of e d u c a t i o n i n much more complex ways than t h e y o r d i n a r i l y would." (21:271) I t would appear t h a t the time has come t o r e l a t e Weaver's statement  t o a d u l t education i n B r i t i s h Columbia as  f u t u r e e x p e c t a t i o n s f o r c o n t r o l l e d growth, p o s i t i v e  expressed  g o a l s , concrete p o l i c i e s and r e a l i s t i c d e c i s i o n s should must be c o n s i d e r e d now.  The o b j e c t i v e o f t h i s study was  and to  u t i l i z e Weaver's "potent d e v i c e , " t o examine c u r r e n t problems  1  2 and  i n d i c a t i v e trends  i n order t o i d e n t i f y some o f the i n t e r -  r e l a t e d f a c t o r s t h a t may i n f l u e n c e the f u t u r e development o f educational  o p p o r t u n i t i e s f o r a d u l t s i n B r i t i s h Columbia. RATIONALE  To comprehend the n e c e s s i t y f o r examining the f u t u r e through a f o r e c a s t i n g study, i t i s f i r s t e s s e n t i a l t o understand the concept o f the f u t u r e i t s e l f .  There are t h r e e  components  i n time t h a t are b a s i c t o the f u t u r e : the p a s t , the p r e s e n t , and  the r a t e o f change between the two.  the p a s t and the p r e s e n t s t r e s s on the f u t u r e .  The i n t e r v a l between  i s c l o s i n g r a p i d l y , thus p l a c i n g more  This decreasing  i n t e r v a l appears m a i n l y  t o be the r e s u l t o f t e c h n o l o g i c a l change. T h i s narrowing o f time between p a s t and present i s i l l u s t r a t e d b y Robert Jungkt through a c o n s i d e r a t i o n o f the i n t e r v a l between s c i e n t i f i c d i s c o v e r i e s (the p o s s i b i l i t i e s f o r change) and t h e i r l a r g e s c a l e a p p l i c a t i o n s ( t h e r e s u l t s o f change). Discovery Photography Radio Television Transistor Solar Battery  Invention  Application -  1727 1867 1922 194-8 1953  1839 1902 19341951 1955  Time Lapse (years) 112 35 12 3 2 (11:17)  and implementation, the prime i n g r e d i e n t s  o f t e c h n o l o g i c a l change, are now o c c u r r i n g almost F o r e c a s t i n g i s t h e r e f o r e not the r e s u l t  simultaneously.  o f a c c e l e r a t e d change  3 but a c o n c o m i t t a n t b o t h of an expanding t e c h n o l o g y and the s h r i n k i n g time i n which i t s e f f e c t s are f e l t .  A need t o know  about the r e s u l t s of change (the f u t u r e ) has thus p a r a l l e l e d changes a f f e c t i n g the f o r e s h o r t e n i n g p r e s e n t . T h i s n e c e s s i t y f o r knowing i s made obvious i n the f o l l o w i n g analogy employed by the l a t e p h i l o s o p h e r and  futurist,  Gaston Berger: So l o n g as changes were spread out over l o n g p e r i o d s o f time, man c o u l d be compared t o someone w a l k i n g a l o n g a dark road. A l l he needed t o make h i s way i n reasonable s a f e t y were h i s eyes. Then came the c o m p a r a t i v e l y f a s t e r tempo of the horse drawn c a r r i a g e , and t o r c h e s or l a n t e r n s were needed t o l i g h t the road f o r some d i s t a n c e ahead. When the speed of the automobile was reached, p o w e r f u l h e a d l i g h t s were r e q u i r e d t o prevent c o l l i s i o n .  (11:2?)  The r e l a t i o n s h i p between the p a s t and the p r e s e n t i n e d u c a t i o n , as i n technology i s no l o n g e r a matter o f c e n t u r i e s ; i t may  be no more than a matter of minutes.  With over a  m i l l i o n p i e c e s o f o r i g i n a l r e s e a r c h p u b l i s h e d every y e a r , a new to  r e s e a r c h paper appears approximately every h a l f minute add t o the t o t a l sum  o f human knowledge.  To absorb and thus d i s s e m i n a t e new  information alone,  e d u c a t i o n a l i n s t i t u t i o n s charged with t h i s t a s k must  themselves  become p a r t of the confluence of p a s t and p r e s e n t t o enable them t o p l a n e f f e c t i v e l y f o r the f u t u r e .  As P e t e r Drucker  and  others have suggested, p l a n n i n g does not i n v o l v e f u t u r e d e c i s i o n s , it  i n v o l v e s the f u t u r i t y of p r e s e n t d e c i s i o n s .  (12:5)  The Worth Report on E d u c a t i o n i n A l b e r t a i s a p t l y titled  f o r the  Futures.  1970's: A  F u t u r e of Choices or a Choice of  I n r e c o g n i z i n g the r a t e o f a c c e l e r a t i o n between  sub-  4-  p a s t and p r e s e n t , those educators r e s p o n s i b l e f o r p l a n n i n g ahead or making d e c i s i o n s about the f u t u r e must be  prepared  not o n l y t o comprehend the f u t u r e but a l s o t o i n f l u e n c e i t . As A l v i n T o f f l e r has s t a t e d i n Future Shock: E v e r y s o c i e t y f a c e s not merely a s u c c e s s i o n o f probable f u t u r e s , but an a r r a y of p o s s i b l e f u t u r e s , and a c o n f l i c t over p r e f e r a b l e f u t u r e s . The management of change i s the e f f o r t t o convert c e r t a i n p o s s i b l e s i n t o p r o b a b l e s , i n p u r s u i t of agreed-upon p r e f e r a b l e s . (18:460) Thje primary r o l e of the d e c i s i o n maker i n e d u c a t i o n i s thus t h a t of choosing the most r a t i o n a l and d e s i r a b l e p a t h t o follow. E d u c a t i o n i n g e n e r a l has p o s s i b l y been l e s s r e s p o n s i v e to  change than o t h e r f i e l d s because o f the b u l k i n e s s of i t s  bureaucracy.  A d u l t e d u c a t i o n , perhaps because o f the h e t e r o -  g e n i t y o f i t s p o p u l a t i o n or the scope of i t s o f f e r i n g s , shown more f l e x i b i l i t y . those who may  T h i s does not mean however, t h a t  make d e c i s i o n s r e g a r d i n g the f u t u r e of a d u l t education  r e l y s o l e l y upon the f l e x i b i l i t y of the system or the  s o l u t i o n s of the p a s t t o ensure the most r e l i a b l e and path t o t r a v e l i n the f u t u r e . to  has  practicable  A d u l t educators must be  prepared  examine the three b a s i c components of the f u t u r e : they must  look back, look around them, and, i n comparing t h e i r  obser-  v a t i o n s , look ahead. The purpose of t h i s study i s not t o p r e t e n d t o i l l u m i n ate the e n t i r e f u t u r e of a d u l t e d u c a t i o n , i t i s merely  to  examine, through the medium of a p a n e l expert i n the f i e l d a d u l t e d u c a t i o n , p o t e n t i a l events f o r e s e e n as a f f e c t i n g the f u t u r e of a d u l t e d u c a t i o n over the next decade and thus t o  of  5 suggest p o t e n t i a l g o a l s or avenues f o r change BACKGROUND I n order to l o c a t e a d u l t e d u c a t i o n t e m p o r a l l y i n B r i t i s h Columbia and t o u n d e r l i n e the importance of c o n s i d e r i n g i t s f u t u r e , i t i s n e c e s s a r y to examine the remarkable growth of  adult education w i t h i n t h i s province.  A b r i e f study o f  the h i s t o r y of i t s growth i n d i c a t e s t h a t 120 y e a r s ago  the  f i r s t recorded attempt t o p r o v i d e a d u l t e d u c a t i o n occurred at  C r a i g f l o w e r where s e t t l e r s formed a s c i e n t i f i c  institute  " i n which members took t u r n s l e c t u r i n g to the group." (17:116) I n s t i t u t e s sponsored  by the churches, p r i v a t e s c h o o l s , and  o t h e r agencies comprised Columbia u n t i l 1885 was  the b u l k of a d u l t e d u c a t i o n i n B r i t i s h  when the f i r s t  formed i n V i c t o r i a .  l o c a l Teacher I n s t i t u t e  Many more sponsoring agencies f o r  a d u l t e d u c a t i o n emerged l a t e r i n c l u d i n g l i b r a r i e s , museums and p r o v i n c i a l government departments. A d u l t e d u c a t i o n became the p r o v i n c e o f the Department of  E d u c a t i o n i n the 1930*s, and i t was used as a "means f o r  i n t r o d u c i n g r e c r e a t i o n , s e l f - h e l p and o t h e r newer type programs." (20:6)  T h i s was  f o l l o w e d by a p e r i o d of i n t e n s i v e  e f f o r t and e x t e n s i v e t r a i n i n g made necessary by the and m i l i t a r y needs of the Second World War r e h a b i l i t a t i v e needs a f t e r the war." time n i g h t s c h o o l d i r e c t o r was  "individual  and l a t e r by the  (20:8)  The  first  full  appointed i n Vancouver i n  19*5. S i n c e the l a t e 1950's, a d u l t education i n g e n e r a l ,  6 and p u b l i c s c h o o l a d u l t e d u c a t i o n i n p a r t i c u l a r , have experienced  phenomenal growth.  have more than quadrupled,  Enrolments  i n the l a t t e r  "with a growth from 40,867 i n  1959/60 t o 180,282 i n 1971." (1:15) T h e r e f o r e , i n a p e r i o d of l i t t l e more than a century, a d u l t e d u c a t i o n enrolments  have s w e l l e d from a mere h a n d f u l  t o almost o n e - f i f t h o f a m i l l i o n p a r t i c i p a n t s w i t h the g r e a t e s t p e r i o d o f growth o c c u r r i n g i n approximately one-tenth o f the time. Although enhancing  the p u b l i c r e p u t a t i o n o f c o n t i n u i n g  e d u c a t i o n , t h i s r a p i d growth has a l s o tended  t o make a d u l t  e d u c a t i o n the v i c t i m o f what might be c a l l e d the "Topsy" syndrome.  T h i s spontaneous and u n r e g u l a t e d development has  r e s u l t e d i n b o t h an o v e r l a p o f s e r v i c e s and a l a c k o f coo r d i n a t i o n , and thus a l e s s e f f i c i e n t and perhaps more c o s t l y service.  I n a d d i t i o n , c o m p e t i t i o n f o r p a r t i c i p a n t s among  colleges, u n i v e r s i t i e s , public night schools, recreation departments and v o l u n t e e r agencies has d i s c o u r a g e d c o - o p e r a t i o n . Introduced by the p a n e l , these and o t h e r i s s u e s a s , f o r example, the community s c h o o l , day care and t e a c h e r t r a i n i n g f o r a d u l t educators, became the main p o i n t s f o r c o n s i d e r a t i o n , argument and concern throughout The  the study.  f i n a l f o r e c a s t r e p r e s e n t s an informed, r a t i o n a l and  c o n t r o l l e d examination impact  o f those f a c t o r s and t h e i r  on a d u l t e d u c a t i o n i n B r i t i s h Columbia,  estimated  The  completed  study r e p r e s e n t s a p o s s i b l e g u i d e l i n e f o r those p r e s e n t l y engaged i n the decision-making p r o c e s s about the f u t u r e o f  7 adult education translated into s p e c i f i c goals with those supporting events r e q u i s i t e to the f u l f i l l m e n t of the goals. SCOPE In order to obtain a homogeneity of expertise, the panel asked to p a r t i c i p a t e i n the study were a l l adult education directors of either public night school programs, community colleges or vocational/technical adult education divisions.  S i m i l a r l y i n r e f e r r i n g to adult education and i t s  future, the scope i s r e s t r i c t e d to programs under the j u r i s d i c t i o n of the Department of Education. Of the sixty-eight directors i n i t i a l l y contacted, t h i r t y - e i g h t agreed to p a r t i c i p a t e .  T h i r t y completed  f i r s t two questionnaires, and twenty completed  the  a l l three  questionnaires. The time period necessary to complete the three rounds was approximately s i x months.  The methodology chosen was  based on the Delphi technique, a method which originated with Theodore Gordon and Olaf Helmer i n 1964 at the Rand Corporation. I t i s c l a s s i f i e d as i n t u i t i v e forecasting which r e l i e s upon a panel of individuals expert i n t h e i r p a r t i c u l a r f i e l d to i n t u i t the future through a series of sequential sets or rounds of questionnaires, which allow f o r anonymity, controlled feedback and s t a t i s t i c a l group response. The format of one p a r t i c u l a r experimental Delphi model developed at the I n s t i t u t e of the Future i n a study e n t i t l e d ; Some Prospects f o r S o c i a l Change by 1985 and t h e i r Impact on  Time/Money Budgets: Enzer, L i t t l e and Lazar, (7) was as a means o f :  1) r e - t e s t i n g i t s v a l i d i t y ;  the value of t r a n s f e r r i n g methodologies (economics) t o another,  2) e s t i m a t i n g  from one  ( e d u c a t i o n ) ; and  employed  discipline  3) f o r e c a s t i n g  one  f o r e s e e a b l e f u t u r e f o r a d u l t education i n B r i t i s h Columbia. Three rounds were conducted by m a i l w i t h p a n e l members.  The r e s u l t or f o r e c a s t s from each round were chan-  n e l l e d through the d i r e c t o r of the study f o r s y n t h e s i s and refinement.  These f o r e c a s t s were then r e t u r n e d t o the p a n e l  f o r re-assessment  f o r the next round.  q u e s t i o n n a i r e r e p r e s e n t e d the f i n a l  The f i n a l or t h i r d  forecast.  PLAN OF THESIS I t i s the i n t e n t i n t h i s study t o d i s c u s s , i n the second chapter, the D e l p h i method and t o examine c u r r e n t D e l p h i s t u d i e s w i t h p a r t i c u l a r r e f e r e n c e t o the l i m i t e d number undertaken  i n the f i e l d of a d u l t e d u c a t i o n .  The  third  chapter w i l l d e s c r i b e i n d e t a i l the methodology chosen and the t h r e e instruments c o n s t r u c t e d and d i s t r i b u t e d through D e l p h i sequence.  The  the  f o u r t h chapter w i l l d e s c r i b e and  i n t e r p r e t the d a t a r e c e i v e d and t h e i r i m p l i c a t i o n s i n terms o f , f o r example, p r o j e c t e d manpower needs, expansion f a c i l i t i e s , a n t i c i p a t e d p a r t i c i p a t i o n p a t t e r n s and socio-economic  shifts.  of  forecast  The f i f t h and f i n a l chapter w i l l  dis-  cuss the t r e n d s i d e n t i f i e d through the d a t a a n a l y s i s and  thus  the s p e c i f i c g o a l s f o r a d u l t e d u c a t i o n which may as a r e s u l t of the i m p l i c a t i o n s of t h a t d a t a .  be c o n s i d e r e d  Chapter 2 REVIEW OF LITERATURE The and  f o l l o w i n g chapter d i s c u s s e s  the D e l p h i method  examines s e v e r a l r e c e n t s t u d i e s conducted u s i n g  methodology, w i t h s p e c i a l r e f e r e n c e to adult  t o a few  that  studies related  education. F o r e c a s t i n g the f u t u r e has developed from p r i m i t i v e  r e l i g i o u s p r o p h e c i e s before  the year o f C h r i s t ' s b i r t h t o  the s o p h i s t i c a t e d t e c h n o l o g i c a l f o r e c a s t s and methodologies of the 3970's.  Futures'  concerned p r i m a r i l y with the f i e l d o n l y r e c e n t l y begun t o be as e d u c a t i o n .  forecasting  r e s e a r c h has been  of technology and  has  adapted to the s o c i a l s c i e n c e s  I n a r e c e n t a r t i c l e about the D e l p h i  such  fore-  c a s t i n g method, Timothy Weaver s t a t e s : I t has simply been the case i n education t h a t the time l a g between i n i t i a l p o l i c y d e c i s i o n and measurable impact i s v e r y l o n g . . . . I t follows that educational p l a n n i n g and p o l i c y d e c i s i o n must i n c r e a s i n g l y make use of f o r e c a s t i n g t o o l s whose purpose i t would be t o c o n t i n u a l l y conduct and assess s t u d i e s of the f u t u r e . (21:267) Although t h i s statement could as w e l l a p p l y t o a d u l t  education,  i t would appear t h a t b o t h d e c i s i o n makers and r e s e a r c h e r s a d u l t education the  have c o n s i s t e n t l y ignored  in  an examination o f  future. The  i n the f i e l d  p a u c i t y of l i t e r a t u r e relevant to f o r e c a s t i n g of a d u l t education  9  n e c e s s i t a t e d more comprehensive  10 review o f t h e l i t e r a t u r e r e l e v a n t t o the D e l p h i method i n g e n e r a l i n c l u d i n g i t s advantages, disadvantages and scope, and t o the few r e s e a r c h s t u d i e s i n e d u c a t i o n o r a d u l t c a t i o n employing the D e l p h i method.  edu-  From t h i s review i t was  then p o s s i b l e not o n l y t o choose a model s u i t a b l e t o the s t a t e d o b j e c t i v e o f t h e study, but a l s o t o j u s t i f y i t and i t s subsequent a d a p t a t i o n as a r e s e a r c h t o o l . The D e l p h i f o r e c a s t i n g method employed  i n t h i s study  o r i g i n a t e d with Theodore Gordon and O l a f Helrner i n 1964working a t t h e Rand C o r p o r a t i o n .  T h e i r study was "an e x p e r i -  ment i n t r e n d p r e d i c t i n g and f o r e c a s t i n g t e n t o f i f t y y e a r s ahead i n s i x broad a r e a s , i n c l u d i n g s c i e n t i f i c breakthrough, automation, space programs  and f u t u r e weapons systems."  (9:72)  The technique used i n the study was based on the i d e a o f making e f f e c t i v e use o f informed i n t u i t i v e judgment b i n i n g i n d i v i d u a l judgments  and com-  systematically to obtain a  reasoned consensus through t h e use o f a s p e c i f i c a l l y chosen group o r committee. Attempts t o p o o l human r e s o u r c e s and s u c c e s s f u l l y a r r i v e a t d e c i s i o n s have r e s u l t e d i n a p r o l i f e r a t i o n o f groups such as committees, c o u n c i l s and p a n e l s . these t r a d i t i o n a l methods have s e r i o u s f l a w s .  Unfortunately  S t u d i e s con-  ducted over the l a s t few decades have exposed some o f t h e difficulties. One major drawback i s t h e i n f l u e n c e o f t h e dominant i n d i v i d u a l , sometimes c a l l e d the bandwagon e f f e c t . Semantic " n o i s e " which i n t r o d u c e s i r r e l e v a n t o r redundant m a t e r i a l i s another problem. A t h i r d d i f f i c u l t y i s group p r e s s u r e t h a t puts a premium on  11 compromise, A f o u r t h problem i s the u n w i l l i n g n e s s o f i n d i v i d u a l s t o abandon p u b l i c l y expressed o p i n i o n .  (6:26)  The  p r i m a r y advantages o f t h e D e l p h i method are  presumed t o be i n three s p e c i a l i z e d f e a t u r e s t h a t are designed to reduce some o f the p s y c h o l o g i c a l problems p r e v i o u s l y listed. The  first  f e a t u r e i s anonymity.  members s e l e c t e d never became acquainted  Because the p a n e l with other p a n e l i s t s *  names d u r i n g a D e l p h i sequence, t h e i r judgment w i l l n o t be clouded  by p e r s o n a l knowledge o f o r p r i o r a s s o c i a t i o n s w i t h  any other p a r t i c u l a r p a n e l i s t s .  An i n d i v i d u a l p a n e l i s t may  change h i s mind o r o p i n i o n without the p o s s i b i l i t y o f l o s i n g face. The  second advantage, c o n t r o l l e d i t e r a t i o n ,  provides  f o r the c h a n n e l l i n g o f o p i n i o n and i d e a s through the d i r e c t o r who a c t s as "absentee chairman" and i s allowed relevant information.  t o focus on  This channelling of information  also  permits the i n d i v i d u a l members o f the group t o concentrate  on  the o b j e c t i v e s o f the study without the p o s s i b i l i t i e s o f major and minor s p l i n t e r groups w i t h i n the l a r g e r committee o r panel r e - i t e r a t i n g the same argument and e v e n t u a l l y even  proposing  agreement o r consensus f o r i t s own sake. The  t h i r d a r e a , s t a t i s t i c a l group response, allows a  p r e s e n t a t i o n of a t o t a l i t y of o p i n i o n s .  The u s u a l r e p o r t i n g  procedure shows the median and the upper and lower q u a r t i l e responses on each concept t o be reviewed and e v a l u a t e d .  The  e n t i r e group o p i n i o n i s r e f l e c t e d through the median, while  12 the extreme range or spread and  of o p i n i o n i s shown i n the upper  lower q u a r t i l e s . The  disadvantages or p r i n c i p a l arguments a g a i n s t  D e l p h i method were obtained members and  from experienced  summarized by B e r n s t e i n and  the  former p a n e l  Cetron:  1. Panel members d i s l i k e b e g i n n i n g with a b l a n k p i e c e of paper. A s e t of sample p r o j e c t i o n s would improve the p a n e l member's understanding of h i s t a s k and s t i m u l a t e p a t t e r n s of thought. 2. The e x t e n s i v e number of i n t e r a c t i o n s r e q u i r e d by the D e l p h i process r e s u l t s i n a heavy investment of time. The p a n e l i s t i s prone t o r e s e n t t h i s i m p o s i t i o n . 3. A f t e r the s e v e r a l rounds, the p a n e l i s t s may be f a c e d w i t h e v a l u a t i n g p r o j e c t i o n s i n areas t o t a l l y o u t s i d e h i s area of e x p e r t i s e . S e v e r a l former p a n e l i s t s i n d i cated much i n d i g n a t i o n over b e i n g asked to p l a y the r o l e o f "expert" and b e i n g f o r c e d t o g i v e a layman's view under the guise o f expert o p i n i o n . 4-. A l a c k of g o a l o r i e n t a t i o n leaves the q u e s t i o n s ; When has the i n f o r m a t i o n been r e f i n e d enough? When do we stop the i t e r a t i o n process? 5. E f f o r t s t o determine event f e a s i b i l i t y and a b i l i t y are r a r e l y addressed.  desir-  6. Most i m p o r t a n t l y , no e f f o r t i s made t o : (a) determine event i n t e r r e l a t i o n s h i p s ; (b) prepare "menus" of a l t e r n a t i v e s h o r t - , mid-, and long-range g o a l s ; or (c) i d e n t i f y the s u p p o r t i n g events d e s i r a b l e and necessary to make these g o a l s a c h i e v a b l e . 7. The b a s i c d e s i g n of such a technique p r e c l u d e s the ( h o p e f u l l y empathetic) give-and-take p o t e n t i a l l y p o s s i b l e i n f a c e - t o - f a c e c o n f r o n t a t i o n . (5*33} D e s p i t e , or perhaps because o f , B e r n s t e i n and c r i t i c i s m s a c o n s i d e r a b l e amount o f time and  e f f o r t has been  expended b o t h t o v e r i f y the v a l i d i t y of the D e l p h i and t o expand and  enhance i t s p r a c t i c a b i l i t y .  Cetron's  technique  Most f o r e c a s t s  u s u a l l y d e a l with r e l a t i v e l y long range p o s s i b i l i t i e s anywhere  13  from t e n t o one hundred y e a r s i n the f u t u r e and t h i s  factor,  coupled w i t h the problem of the b a s i c paradox of f o r e c a s t i n g , make i t d i f f i c u l t t o assess f o r e c a s t s . to assess the method  I t i s however, p o s s i b l e  itself.  I n a r e c e n t a r t i c l e i n The F u t u r i s t , M a r t i n o , d i s c u s s i n g the c o n s i s t e n c y o f p a n e l responses i n D e l p h i f o r e c a s t s concludes the net r e s u l t of these comparisons ( t h a t i s , o f the same study conducted produced  with d i f f e r e n t panels) i s that f o r e c a s t s  by the D e l p h i procedure  do tend t o be c o n s i s t e n t .  D i f f e r e n t p a n e l s w i t h equal e x p e r t i s e w i l l tend t o produce about the same r e s u l t s .  He  states:  T h i s evidence should be r e a s s u r i n g to those f a c e d w i t h the n e c e s s i t y of u t i l i z i n g expert o p i n i o n i n p r e p a r i n g a f o r e c a s t . They can have a h i g h degree o f c o n f i d e n c e t h a t a d i f f e r e n t p a n e l would have produced about the same f o r e c a s t . (14:67) Another  s e r i e s of e v a l u a t i v e s t u d i e s on the D e l p h i  method were conducted by Norman Dalkey w i t h a group of upper c l a s s and graduate  students from UCLA.  One  question t y p i c a l  o f those asked on the almanac type q u e s t i o n n a i r e was: many telephones were t h e r e i n A f r i c a i n 1965?"  "How  These types  o f q u e s t i o n s were asked because; 1.  the s u b j e c t s d i d not know the answer, but had enough background i n f o r m a t i o n so t h a t they c o u l d make an informed  estimate,  2.  v e r i f i a b l e answers were a v a i l a b l e ,  and  3.  the answers were n u m e r i c a l so t h a t a r e a s o n a b l y wide range of performances c o u l d be s c a l e d . As a r e s u l t of these experiments,  Dalkey  concluded  14t h a t : "the D e l p h i procedure c r e a t e s a w e l l d e f i n e d  process  which can be d e s c r i b e d q u a n t i t a t i v e l y and t h a t the anonymous feedback of D e l p h i should produce a r e s u l t s u p e r i o r to t h a t gained by the normal methods."  (13:178)  V e r i f y i n g the D e l p h i ' s u t i l i t y i n h i s a r t i c l e  "Delphi +  Computers + Communications =» ?, T u r o f f comments; Today D e l p h i techniques are b e i n g a p p l i e d t o complex and meaningful problems i n s o c i e t y . Although D e l p h i d e s i g n e r s m a y b e accused of jumping ahead of s c i e n t i f i c r i g o u r i n a p p l y i n g new d e s i g n techniques without adequate experimentation they are meeting a r e a l need f o r improving group communications s t r u c t u r e s . . . . I t i s evident t o those who have looked at the c u r r e n t scope of D e l p h i designs t h a t a number of u s e f u l techniques f o r h a n d l i n g the communication and p r e s e n t a t i o n of v a r i o u s types of complex i s s u e s have a l r e a d y been produced . . . . (19:246) The  scope of D e l p h i designs and m o d i f i c a t i o n s i n  i n d u s t r y , b u s i n e s s and the m i l i t a r y , i n c l u d e the  examination  of p o l i c y i s s u e s , P o l i c y D e l p h i , SOON (Sequence of O p p o r t u n i t i e s and N e g a t i v e s ) , C h a r t s based on PROBE, a D e l p h i method  developed  by North and Pyke, and the SEER (System f o r Event E v a l u a t i o n and Review) c r e a t e d by the Naval Supply Systems Command.  In  order t o reduce the l e n g t h y time process i n v o l v e d i n the u s u a l D e l p h i study, the I n s t i t u t e of the Future to  (U.S.) p l a n s  s e t up a "permanent, e l e c t r o n i c , world wide D e l p h i  (11:28)  which would be connected to a c e n t r a l computer." I n the f i e l d  of e d u c a t i o n the D e l p h i has been used  and m o d i f i e d f a r l e s s e x t e n s i v e l y . i n the Use  circuit  As Robert Judd comments  of D e l p h i Methods i n Higher E d u c a t i o n :  " I f you  c o n s u l t Rand C o r p o r a t i o n l i s t i n g s , you f i n d one  e n t r y on  D e l p h i i n education out of a t o t a l of f o r t y - o n e  listings."  (10:173)  However, Judd does examine the scope of the  1  employment o f D e l p h i over such areas as: e d u c a t i o n a l and  o b j e c t i v e s ; c u r r i c u l u m and campus p l a n n i n g ;  5  goals  development  of e v a l u a t i o n c r i t e r i a ; r a t i n g s c a l e s ; and e f f e c t i v e n e s s o f c o s t / b e n e f i t measures. He enumerates eighteen  s t u d i e s some o f which a r e :  1. The N a t i o n a l Center f o r Higher E d u c a t i o n Management Systems study t o g a i n i n s i g h t i n t o the p o s s i b l e changes i n post secondary education i n the next seven t o f i f t e e n years, 2. Focus D e l p h i which was a state-wide e f f o r t conducted by DeLayne Hudspeth t o a c q u i r e i n s i g h t i n t o f u t u r e g o a l s and o b j e c t i v e s i n h i g h e r e d u c a t i o n . 3. The Roger U h l three s t a t e study which sought t o v a l i d a t e an i n s t i t u t i o n a l goals i n v e n t o r y which c o u l d be presented as a survey package f o r i n s t i t u t i o n a l s e l f examination purposes, 4. The C o o r d i n a t i n g Board o f Advanced E d u c a t i o n and A c c r e d i t a t i o n i n New Hampshire whose purpose was t o i n s t i t u t e ; "development by each s t a t e o f a long-range p l a n f o r the d e t e r m i n a t i o n o f c o n s t r u c t i o n needs f o r i t s i n s t i t u t i o n s o f h i g h e r education," 5. The Governor's S t a t e U n i v e r s i t y Needs Assessment survey by D a n i e l Norton f o r the E d u c a t i o n a l T e s t i n g Service, 6. The Cochran Study (Cochran was a co-author with D e l p h i experimenter Norman Dalkey) a t E a s t Texas S t a t e U n i v e r s i t y on o b t a i n i n g consensus about the v a l u e o f c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of teachers i n a c o l l e g e , 7. Fox and B r o o k s h i r e a t the U n i v e r s i t y o f North Colorado who undertook t o use a D e l p h i e x e r c i s e w i t h at ninety-r.one f a c u l t y member p a n e l t o l i s t the i n g r e d i e n t s o f e f f e c t i v e college teaching. (10:174-183) A f u r t h e r m o d i f i c a t i o n of Focus D e l p h i (Judd's  list,  number two) was c a r r i e d out a t the E d u c a t i o n a l P o l i c y Research Centre  i n 1972)  That study was undertaken to modify and t e s t  the m o d i f i c a t i o n s o f b o t h the D e l p h i and the Cross  Impact  M a t r i x methods i n order t o " t u r n these d e v i c e s i n t o t o o l s f o r  policy-makers  and  i n s t i t u t i o n a l planners  and to a l l o w m u l t i p l e  p u b l i c s t o c o n t r i b u t e t o the p o l i c y f o r m u l a t i o n (16:18)  and r e s u l t e d i n an instrument  process"  which the author  c a l l e d the Focus D e l p h i and the Cross-Purpose M a t r i x . S e v e r a l Canadian s t u d i e s have used or adapted the D e l p h i technique  to the problems o f e d u c a t i o n .  undertaken i n 1970 Secondary Non  e n t i t l e d , General E d u c a t i o n  One  study  i n Post  U n i v e r s i t y Educational I n s t i t u t i o n s i n Alberta  by Desmond Berghofer  examined the "concept of g e n e r a l  education  as d i s t i n c t from s p e c i f i c v o c a t i o n a l and academic p r e p a r a t i o n with r e s p e c t to problems l i k e l y to f a c e s o c i e t y d u r i n g next t h i r t y y e a r s . "  the  (4:25)  A d o c t o r a l d i s s e r t a t i o n by David S a u l , Toward a Consensual Model f o r the Re-design o f P r o f e s s i o n a l C u r r i c u l a addressed the problem of a c h i e v i n g consensus on  curricula  through a comparison of input from both l e a r n e r s ( i n t h i s case, medical  students)  and i n s t r u c t o r s (medical d o c t o r s ) .  (14:7) A f u r t h e r m o d i f i c a t i o n of Saul's model was  carried  out under the Research and Development branch of the Education  Community A u t h o r i t y i n 1973*  Entitled,  Ontario  Learning  f o r Change, i t appears to be the f i r s t major study i n Canada of the f u t u r e e d u c a t i o n a l needs of a d u l t s . o b j e c t i v e was  The  specific  t o o b t a i n i n f o r m a t i o n about:  What knowledge and/or s k i l l s need t o be a c q u i r e d by the c i t i z e n s of O n t a r i o who d e s i r e t o adapt themselves s u c c e s s f u l l y to an ever-changing world and, a t the same time, to p l a y an a c t i v e r o l e i n the achievement of a more humane s o c i e t y ? (15^3)  The number of s t u d i e s i n e d u c a t i o n or a d u l t e d u c a t i o n employing the D e l p h i are l i m i t e d . l i t e r a t u r e reviewed appeared  Because none of the  to u t i l i z e a Delphi  approach  t r a n s f e r r a b l e t o the o b j e c t i v e s o f t h i s study, i t was  necessary  to  still  examine s t u d i e s o u t s i d e the f i e l d of e d u c a t i o n but  w i t h i n the realm o f the s o c i a l s c i e n c e s .  A study by Enzer  et a l , Some P r o s p e c t s f o r S o c i a l Change by 1985 Impact on Time/Money Budgets  (7) appeared  and  their  t o be a model  s u i t a b l e f o r a d a p t a t i o n because: 1.  i t was  an experimental study undertaken a t the  I n s t i t u t e of the Future e i g h t y e a r s a f t e r the appearance of the o r i g i n a l D e l p h i and had  thus  addressed some o f the b a s i c problems a s s o c i a t e d w i t h the method. 2.  i t gave a concrete s t a r t i n g p o i n t f o r the f i r s t i n the form of a model of s t a t i s t i c a l  3.  i t utilized  trends.  a s m a l l p a n e l , and although conducted  three d i r e c t o r s , i t was to  round  by  w i t h i n the realm of p o s s i b i l i t y  conduct the sequence u s i n g o n l y one  director.  Chapter  3  PROCEDURE The  study d e s i g n suggested  by Enzer, e t a l , was  m o d i f i e d f o r use i n the p r e s e n t study. the sample, the instruments  T h i s chapter d e s c r i b e s  and the procedures  through  which  an attempt was made t o assess some o f the areas o f concern r e g a r d i n g the f u t u r e o f a d u l t education i n B r i t i s h Columbia. POPULATION AND SAMPLE The i n i t i a l step i n embarking on a D e l p h i study i s the s e l e c t i o n o f a p a n e l .  I t was decided t o form the p a n e l  from those i n a d m i n i s t r a t i v e p o s i t i o n s i n a d u l t e d u c a t i o n because t h e y would r e p r e s e n t n o t o n l y i n d i v i d u a l s with a homogeneity o f background and e x p e r t i s e b u t a l s o those most l i k e l y t o i n f l u e n c e f u t u r e p o l i c i e s and d e c i s i o n making i n a d u l t e d u c a t i o n i n B r i t i s h Columbia. Because a study of t h i s type r e p r e s e n t s a s i g n i f i c a n t c o n t r i b u t i o n o f time, a l e t t e r (See Appendix A) was sent t o s i x t y - e i g h t d i r e c t o r s o f a d u l t e d u c a t i o n - o f whom the m a j o r i t y r e p r e s e n t e d p u b l i c n i g h t s c h o o l , the m i n o r i t y , community colleges - asking f o r t h e i r co-operation.  The l e t t e r o u t l i n e d  the purpose o f the study, then the g e n e r a l i z e d use o f f o r e c a s t i n g as a means o f a s s e s s i n g the f u t u r e , and, more s p e c i f i c a l l y , the reason behind the c h o i c e o f the D e l p h i method. 18  19 The l e t t e r a l s o d e s c r i b e d the f i r s t  q u e s t i o n n a i r e and i n d i -  cated the estimated time r e q u i r e d t o complete  t h e sequence.  Of the s i x t y - e i g h t people o r i g i n a l l y c o n t a c t e d , t h i r t y - e i g h t agreed t o co-operate. the f i r s t  q u e s t i o n n a i r e , twenty  twenty completed  the t h i r d .  Thirty panellists  completed  submitted the second, and  The predominant  reason f o r  f a i l i n g t o become i n v o l v e d i n the study was g i v e n as lack- o f time.  The f i n a l p a n e l was t h e r e f o r e composed o f twenty  education d i r e c t o r s .  adult  A p a n e l o f f i f t e e n members i s con-  s i d e r e d the s m a l l e s t D e l p h i p a n e l from which r e l i a b l e o r u s a b l e f o r e c a s t s may be o b t a i n e d .  T h e r e f o r e , although  r e p r e s e n t i n g a l i m i t e d number of a d m i n i s t r a t o r s , the sample was o f s u f f i c i e n t s i z e t o complete  the sequence i n a mode  s a t i s f a c t o r y t o the r e q u i s i t e s o f D e l p h i f o r e c a s t s i n g e n e r a l . In percentages, the number who completed  the f i r s t q u e s t i o n -  n a i r e , t h i r t y , r e p r e s e n t e d e i g h t y p e r c e n t completion b y those who agreed t o p a r t i c i p a t e .  The twenty who completed  the second  and t h i r d q u e s t i o n n a i r e s r e p r e s e n t e d a r e t u r n o f 6 6 . 7 percent of those completing the f i r s t instrument.  These percentages  were deemed s u f f i c i e n t , g i v e n such an extended p e r i o d o f time as the s i x months over which t h i s study was c a r r i e d out and  the. g e n e r a l requirements o f the D e l p h i t e c h n i q u e .  THE  INSTRUMENTS  Many D e l p h i s t u d i e s b e g i n w i t h what i s known as the "blank sheet o f paper" approach where p a n e l l i s t s are asked t o make p r e d i c t i o n s over broad a r e a s .  T h i s approach has o f t e n  20 been c r i t i c i z e d as too g e n e r a l i z e d and vague, so the model chosen f o r t h i s study u t i l i z e d a s e t of s t a t i s t i c a l i n d i c a t o r s as a s t a r t i n g p o i n t .  T h i s approach was  c o n s i d e r e d more  p r a c t i c a b l e as i t o f f e r e d a s p e c i f i c f o c u s on t r e n d s t h a t might have a b e a r i n g on the f u t u r e of a d u l t Questionnaire  One  The p o i n t of departure was to  education.  fortthis first  questionnaire  a s e t of t h i r t e e n s t a t i s t i c a l i n d i c a t o r s which appeared be r e l e v a n t t o a d u l t e d u c a t i o n .  Of the t h i r t e e n i n d i c a t o r s  chosen, f o u r were from the area of economics; i n c r e a s e i n l a b o r f o r c e , change i n age  group d i s t r i b u t i o n s , number of  females employed, and  s h i f t i n p o p u l a t i o n from r u r a l to urban  areas.  nine r e f l e c t e d t r e n d s i n  The  remaining  education  which appeared t o b e a r d i r e c t l y on a d u l t e d u c a t i o n ;  number  of p u b l i c n i g h t s c h o o l i n s t r u c t o r s , number o f a d m i n i s t r a t o r s i n p u b l i c n i g h t s c h o o l o p e r a t i o n s , number of s c h o o l  districts  o f f e r i n g p u b l i c n i g h t s c h o o l programs, p a r t time academic ( u n i v e r s i t y t r a n s f e r ) enrolment i n community c o l l e g e s , n i g h t s c h o o l enrolment i n t e c h n i c a l / v o c a t i o n a l s c h o o l s , u n i v e r s i t i e s ' o p e r a t i n g and enrolment, and at  c a p i t a l expenditures,  f u l l time u n i v e r s i t y  enrolment i n the Department o f A d u l t  Education  the U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h Columbia. Each i n d i c a t o r was  past t r e n d from 1961  presented  t o 1971*  and was  g r a p h i c a l l y , showing the accompanied by  p o s s i b l e developments which were presented  three  as p o s s i b l y  r e l a t e d to f u t u r e changes i n the i n d i c a t o r .  21 The  respondents were asked t o perform f o u r  tasks:  1) i d e n t i f y the i n d i c a t o r s t h a t would be most u s e f u l f o r f u r t h e r e v a l u a t i o n i n l i g h t o f t h e study's purpose; mate t o 1984, through extending the graphic  2) e s t i -  t r e n d l i n e s , the  course o f the i n d i c a t o r s they s e l e c t e d as most u s e f u l ; 3) s p e c i f y which o f the p o s s i b l e developments accompanying each i n d i c a t o r s e l e c t e d would be important t o changes i n the f u t u r e o f a d u l t education;  and 4 ) r a t e t h e i r own l e v e l o f  e x p e r t i s e i n r e l a t i o n t o the s u b j e c t o f each i n d i c a t o r as expert,  quite f a m i l i a r , casual or u n f a m i l i a r . The  purpose o f these tasks was t o o b t a i n some  q u a n t i t a t i v e measure o f the f u t u r e courses o f trends t h a t the p a n e l regarded as important t o a d u l t education,  and, i n  a d d i t i o n , t o use these estimates t o i d e n t i f y f u t u r e events t h a t might have such importance. The  f i r s t page o f the q u e s t i o n n a i r e  the format, u s i n g r i s e i n p e r s o n a l indicator.  was a sample o f  p e r c a p i t a income as an  The accompanying l e t t e r (See Appendix B) d e s c r i b e d  the format o f the q u e s t i o n n a i r e .  P a n e l i s t s were asked t o  make two q u a l i f i c a t i o n s i n t h e i r f o r e c a s t s :  1) t o p r e d i c t  what t h e y thought would a c t u a l l y happen r a t h e r than what t h e y hoped would happen and  2) t o s t a t e developments i n such terms  t h a t t h e i r occurrence o r non occurrence c o u l d be a s c e r t a i n e d r e t r o s p e c t i v e l y i n 1984. The o n l y assumption respondents were t o c o n s i d e r was t h a t the world would a v o i d a l a r g e scale holocaust  o r d i s a s t e r from e i t h e r man made or n a t u r a l i  causes.  22 The s t a t i s t i c a l were accompanied  i n d i c a t o r s e x t r a p o l a t e d by the p a n e l  by 175 remarks and comments.  Ninety of  these were i n the nature o f reasons which e x p l a i n e d the e x t r a p o l a t i o n while 85 were statements of f u t u r e events t h a t the  respondents thought would occur and a f f e c t the e x t r a p o -  lations.  The reasons and suggested events o r  developments  were then c o n s o l i d a t e d under those headings and s u b j e c t e d t o f u r t h e r e v a l u a t i o n by the p a n e l i n q u e s t i o n n a i r e two. Q u e s t i o n n a i r e Two The second-round parts.  q u e s t i o n n a i r e was d i v i d e d i n t o t h r e e  The f i r s t p a r t c o n s i s t e d o f a summary o f t h e responses  to the candidate items o r developments indicators.  accompanying the  With a t o t a l of 30 p a n e l i s t s , the responses were  g i v e n i n b o t h percentages and a c t u a l numbers.  Of the 39  o r i g i n a l items, seventeen which had a response of f i f t y p e r c e n t o r more were r e t a i n e d f o r f u r t h e r e v a l u a t i o n . to these seventeen were 4-7 new developments the  Added  o r events which  p a n e l i s t s c o n s i d e r e d would have a b e a r i n g on the f u t u r e o f  adult education. These s i x t y - f o u r items comprised P a r t Two o f t h e questionnaire.  With each p o t e n t i a l event respondents were  asked t o i n d i c a t e :  1) the year by which the l i k e l i h o o d o f  occurrence reaches f i f t y p e r c e n t by w r i t i n g i n a y e a r o r "never";  2) the l i k e l i h o o d o f occurrence by 1984 through  w r i t i n g i n a number from 0 t o 100%;  3) an estimate of the  change i n a d u l t e d u c a t i o n t h a t would be expected i f the event  23 o c c u r r e d by r a t i n g the change as, "very g r e a t , g r e a t , moderate, s l i g h t or none";  4-) the nature of the changes  a n t i c i p a t e d i f the change were r a t e d as v e r y g r e a t or g r e a t . The t h i r d p a r t c o n t a i n e d the graphed  statistical  i n d i c a t o r s and summarized the panel's p r e v i o u s estimates o f the f u t u r e course o f these i n d i c a t o r s . q u a r t i l e responses of  lower  o f the e n t i r e p a n e l , the median estimate  the "expert" and  " q u i t e f a m i l i a r " subgroups, and  i n d i v i d u a l respondents* graph.  The upper and  the  p r e v i o u s response were g i v e n on the  A l s o shown were the reasons suggested by the p a n e l i s t s  i n making t h e i r i n i t i a l  estimates.  These reasons were s o r t e d i n t o two groups, the h i g h e r (upper q u a r t i l e ) and one f o r the lower q u a r t i l e ) estimates.  Each respondent  was  one f o r (lower  asked t o r e - e v a l u a t e  o n l y those i n d i c a t o r s t h a t he had estimated i n the q u e s t i o n n a i r e , u s i n g the f o l l o w i n g procedure:  initial  a f t e r reviewing  and e v a l u a t i n g the r e a s o n g i v e i f an event seemed p o s s i b l e t o occur, to estimate the e f f e c t of i t s occurrence on the of  the t r e n d l i n e t o 1984-.  course  Three columns were g i v e n f o r  t h i s ; a prime f a c t o r , l i t t l e or no e f f e c t , v i r t u a l l y i m p o s s i b l e . P a n e l i s t s were a l s o encouraged t o add f u r t h e r reasons.  After  a s s e s s i n g the reasons by checking one of the t h r e e c a t e g o r i e s the respondents The  were asked t o r e - e s t i m a t e t h e i r e x t r a p o l a t i o n .  second  q u e s t i o n n a i r e was  sent out w i t h a p p r o p r i a t e  sample pages and accompanying e x p l a n a t o r y l e t t e r (See Appendix C). six  The  r e s u l t s were r e c e i v e d over a p e r i o d o f  weeks.  approximately  24 As p a r t one  of the q u e s t i o n n a i r e was  d e s c r i p t i v e and p a r t three was study, p a r t two  purely-  completed at t h i s stage of the  remained the o n l y p o r t i o n which would comprise  the m a t e r i a l f o r the t h i r d  questionnaire.  In order to e l i m i n a t e events which the p a n e l  considered  o f l e s s e r importance, the r a t i n g i n f o r m a t i o n g i v e n i n the t h i r d column of P a r t Two  was  examined.  Numerical v a l u e s were  assigned t o the r e l a t i v e degree of change expected i n a d u l t education i f the event o c c u r r e d , as f o l l o w s : V e r y great Great Moderate Slight None  = = = = =  4 3 2 1 0  Those events which r e c e i v e d the h i g h e s t r a n k i n g i n each o f the v e r y g r e a t , g r e a t and moderate impact c a t e g o r i e s were s e l e c t e d f o r f u r t h e r review.  D u p l i c a t i o n s reduced the  number of events from a p o s s i b l e maximum of 4-5 t o 29» 29 events were r e - e v a l u a t e d by the p a n e l i n the  total These  final  questionnaire. Questionnaire  Three  In t h i s f i n a l q u e s t i o n n a i r e with accompanying l e t t e r , d i r e c t i o n s , and presented round two,  sample page (See Appendix D), the panel  was  with the 29 s e l e c t e d p o t e n t i a l events d e r i v e d from p a r t two.  F o r each event, the respondents were  shown the upper and the lower q u a r t i l e s , the median response, and  t h e i r own  i n d i v i d u a l responses marked i n r e d f o r the  three c a t e g o r i e s of  (a) year which l i k e l i h o o d of  occurrence  25 reaches 50%;  (b) l i k e l i h o o d o f occurrence by 1984;  and  (c)  the impact on a d u l t e d u c a t i o n a n t i c i p a t e d by the group i f  the  event o c c u r r e d .  of  A l s o presented were the changes or causes  changes i n a d u l t e d u c a t i o n suggested i n round two,  assuming  t h a t the event o c c u r r e d . The p a n e l i s t s were r e q u i r e d , a f t e r r e a d i n g through and a s s e s s i n g the i n f o r m a t i o n g i v e n , t o judge each event 1) mark t h e i r c u r r e n t estimate i n  i n d i v i d u a l l y and t o then: c a t e g o r i e s a, b, and c;  2) t o add f u r t h e r comments t o the  "changes expected" column; and suggested changes,  j ) t o e v a l u a t e each o f the  i n one o f t h r e e columns marked "agree,"  " p o s s i b l e but unimportant," o r " d i s a g r e e . " In making these e v a l u a t i o n s the respondents were d i r e c t e d to consider that: l i s t e d was  1)  i f they thought the change  a d i r e c t and important f a c t o r s u p p o r t i n g t h e i r  estimate of the impact on the event on a d u l t e d u c a t i o n t o mark the  "agree" column;  2) i f they thought i t might have a  b e a r i n g but was not of major importance t o mark the " p o s s i b l e but unimportant" column and was  3) i f they c o n s i d e r e d the change  too u n l i k e l y t o be i n c l u d e d i n e v a l u a t i n g the impact  of the event on a d u l t e d u c a t i o n t o mark the " d i s a g r e e " column. The responses t o t h i s t h i r d and f i n a l q u e s t i o n n a i r e were r e c e i v e d i n l a t e June.  The r e s u l t s o f t h a t q u e s t i o n n a i r e  p l u s p a r t t h r e e o f q u e s t i o n n a i r e two t h e r e f o r e comprise the f i n d i n g s o f t h i s study as d i s c u s s e d i n Chapter Four.  Chapter 4FINDINGS As might be expected i n a study o f t h i s t y p e , the d a t a r e c e i v e d were b o t h o b j e c t i v e and s u b j e c t i v e .  This  chapter r e p o r t s the f i n d i n g s by e x p r e s s i n g t h a t m a t e r i a l which i s most s i g n i f i c a n t t o the f u t u r e o f a d u l t e d u c a t i o n as a combination  o f these two  types o f d a t a .  Because the e n t i r e  group o p i n i o n i s b e s t expressed through the median, the median estimate i s the o n l y one u t i l i z e d complete graphed s t a t i s t i c a l  f o r p r e s e n t a t i o n of d a t a .  f i n d i n g s are d i s p l a y e d i n Appendix  E and the p r e d i c t e d p o t e n t i a l events appear i n Appendix F. The f i r s t p o r t i o n of the chapter d e a l s w i t h the graphed s t a t i s t i c a l three).  i n d i c a t o r s ( Q u e s t i o n n a i r e Two,  part  The second p o r t i o n w i l l d e a l w i t h 24 of the  29  p o t e n t i a l events which were s e l e c t e d f o r and r e - e v a l u a t e d i n Q u e s t i o n n a i r e Three.  F i v e p o t e n t i a l events were e l i m i n a t e d  from t h i s chapter because they were p r o j e c t e d t o occur 1984.  As i m p l i c a t i o n s o f these 24- p o t e n t i a l events  after  are  i n c l u d e d as changes o r causes o f changes i n a d u l t e d u c a t i o n as seen by the p a n e l , the more p r e c i s e and c o - o r d i n a t e d r a m i f i c a t i o n s o f the t o t a l events are g i v e n l a t e r under s p e c i f i c headings.  I m p l i c a t i o n s o t h e r than those  intro-  duced by the p a n e l are o f f e r e d where a p o t e n t i a l event the changes expected t o occur do not appear t o be 26  The  self  and  27 evident  o r were l e f t unexplored by the p a n e l TRENDS AND The  FORCES  f i n d i n g s f o r t h i s s e c t i o n are r e p o r t e d  f i n a l estimated median number f o r 1984 s t a t i s t i c a l i n d i c a t o r p l u s the 1971  as  the  f o r each graphed  f i g u r e ; the reasons  given  f o r the response t o each i n d i c a t o r which were r a t e d both as a "prime f a c t o r " i n e v a l u a t i n g the course o r t r e n d o f the i n d i c a t o r s , and g i v e n top p r i o r i t y (over 70% agreement o f the p a n e l ) i n the prime f a c t o r category; and o f each o f the Statistical  the  implications  statistics.  Indicators  Increase i n l a b o u r f o r c e .  The median estimate of  the t o t a l number o f persons i n the l a b o r f o r c e by 19841,250,000.  The  was  prime f a c t o r s t h a t were f e l t to i n f l u e n c e  the growth from 905»000 persons i n 1971 ment caused by a s h o r t e r work week and  were: g r e a t e r employthe  larger proportion  of working women (100%); an i n c r e a s e i n secondary  production  based on primary i n d u s t r y (75%); m a r g i n a l farm employment becoming p r o p o r t i o n a t e l y l e s s important i n o v e r a l l employment as t e r t i a r y i n d u s t r y develops (100%); more e f f e c t i v e b i r t h c o n t r o l (75%); improved day The  projected  care f a c i l i t i e s ( 8 6 % ) .  34-5,000 i n c r e a s e i n the l a b o u r  force  suggests t h a t t h e r e w i l l be an a c c e l e r a t e d need f o r on-thejob and  pre-employment programs e s s e n t i a l t o an i n c r e a s i n g l y  s o p h i s t i c a t e d job market f o r those r e - e n t e r i n g or newly  28 e n t e r i n g the l a b o r f o r c e . Age group d i s t r i b u t i o n .  The median e s t i m a t e s o f the  t o t a l number of persons i n the three  age groups by 1984  were 500,000 i n the age 10 t o 19 year group, (425,000 i n 1971); 525,000 i n the age 20 t o 24 y e a r group (200,000 i n 1971); and 595,000 i n the 35 t o 44 y e a r group (252,000 i n 1971)«  The prime f a c t o r s t h a t were f e l t t o i n f l u e n c e t h i s  s h i f t i n age d i s t r i b u t i o n were t h a t p o p u l a t i o n would  increase  g e n e r a l l y (75%); the number o f c h i l d r e n p e r f a m i l y would be reduced (77%); and the p o s t war baby bulge would move through the age pyramid (71%)• The p r o j e c t e d i n c r e a s e d  growth o f 143,000 i n the 35  t o 44 y e a r group and the reduced growth o f the 24 y e a r and under group w i l l , a t l e a s t over the next two o r three decades, i n c r e a s e t h e number o f a d u l t s who are p o s s i b l e p a r t i c i p a n t s i n adult education a c t i v i t i e s .  As t h i s i s o f t e n the major  group from which p u b l i c n i g h t s c h o o l p a r t i c i p a n t s are drawn, a p r o j e c t e d i n c r e a s e o f t h i s s i z e would c e r t a i n l y p l a c e  heavy  demands on e x i s t i n g f a c i l i t i e s and programs. Number o f employed females.  The median estimate o f  the t o t a l number of women i n the labour f o r c e b y 1984 was 56%. The prime f a c t o r s t h a t were f e l t t o i n f l u e n c e t h i s  growth  from 36% i n 1971 were: the number o f females employed  will  more c l o s e l y approach the number a v a i l a b l e t o work (81%); g r e a t e r acceptance o f females working i n i n d u s t r y  (93%);  d e s i r e f o r s e l f f u l f i l l m e n t o u t s i d e the home (100%);  better  29 f a m i l y p l a n n i n g (76%); concerted e f f o r t s of s t a t u s of women groups (70%); most women w i l l r e - e n t e r the l a b o r f o r c e a f t e r r a i s i n g f a m i l i e s (75%). T h i s p r o j e c t e d marked i n c r e a s e of 20% more females i n the l a b o r f o r c e suggests  t h a t i n t e n years the l a b o r f o r c e  might be dominated (by 6%) by women. t h a t the t r e n d may  T h i s concept  suggests  be moving toward the Scandinavian  experience  where husbands and wives e i t h e r share the same job or where a c o - o p e r a t i v e d e c i s i o n i s made as t o who earner.  w i l l be the wage  T h i s would c e r t a i n l y p r o j e c t a d u l t e d u c a t i o n  programs f o r men subjects.  i n homemaking, c h i l d r e a r i n g and  I t might a l s o suggest,  training  related  as d i d the p r e v i o u s  indicator,  t h a t t h e r e w i l l be a g r e a t l y i n c r e a s e d need f o r programs as Employment O p p o r t u n i t i e s f o r Women. Comparison of Rural-Urban P o p u l a t i o n s .  The median 1984-  estimate of the t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n i n Vancouver C i t y by was  500,000 (4-50,000 i n 1971), and the median estimate  the t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n o f Rossland The prime f a c t o r t h a t was was  was  of  5,000 (2,800 i n 1971).  f e l t to i n f l u e n c e t h i s  the s h i f t to suburban or t o r u r a l r e s i d e n t i a l  indicator living  with urban work (90%). I f t h i s trend c o n t i n u e s , with a slower r a t e of growth f o r major urban p o p u l a t i o n s and  a f a s t e r r a t e f o r r u r a l or  suburban areas, the i m p l i c a t i o n s f o r a d u l t e d u c a t i o n r e l a t i v e l y major. may  are  Community c e n t r e s or even shopping c e n t r e s  become the c e n t r a l focus f o r c o n t i n u i n g e d u c a t i o n  activities.  30 Douglas C o l l e g e plans two experimental ing  "neighbourhood l e a r n -  c e n t r e s " i n the coming year t o attempt t o accommodate  this s h i f t i n population  distribution.  Another i m p l i c a t i o n o f t h i s i n d i c a t o r i s the growing need t o d e c e n t r a l i z e and thus de-emphasize s t r u c t u r e s p e r se, as c e n t r e s o f l e a r n i n g f o r a d u l t s . pressure  T h i s c o u l d i n c r e a s e the  on e x i s t i n g p u b l i c s c h o o l f a c i l i t i e s t o extend t h e i r  use o r could r e p r e s e n t  an i n c r e a s i n g use of p o r t a b l e f a c i l i t i e s .  Instructors i n p u b l i c night schools. estimate 1984  The median  o f the number of p u b l i c n i g h t s c h o o l i n s t r u c t o r s b y  was 11,000.  The primary f a c t o r s f e l t t o i n f l u e n c e t h i s  growth from 8,500 i n 1971 were: the r e s u l t o f p o p u l a t i o n i n c r e a s e g e n e r a l l y (70%); the demand f o r courses beyond r e g u l a r s c h o o l hours w i l l i n c r e a s e , while the t r a d i t i o n a l n i n e t o t h r e e approach f a l l s i n t o d i s f a v o u r (70%), An i n c r e a s e o f 2,500 i n s t r u c t o r s i n the present p u b l i c n i g h t s c h o o l system i n d i c a t e s an assumption by the p a n e l t h a t a d u l t education a c t i v i t i e s w i l l not o n l y m a i n t a i n present  importance but a l s o w i l l continue  s i s t e n t growth.  their  a steady and con-  T h i s w i l l n e c e s s i t a t e the c o - o r d i n a t i o n o f  a d u l t e d u c a t i o n a c t i v i t i e s t o a v o i d problems o f d u p l i c a t i o n and  overlap. Number o f a d m i n i s t r a t o r s i n a d u l t e d u c a t i o n .  median estimate 70,  The  o f the number o f a d m i n i s t r a t o r s b y 1984 was  showing an i n c r e a s e from 1971 o f 18.  T h i s estimate  would  i n d i c a t e t h a t by 1984, i t i s l i k e l y t h a t every s c h o o l d i s t r i c t  31 w i l l have one or more a d m i n i s t r a t o r s whose s o l e f u n c t i o n w i l l be t o a d m i n i s t e r a d u l t education  s e r v i c e s t o the community.  The prime f a c t o r s f e l t t o i n f l u e n c e t h i s i n d i c a t o r were t h a t a d u l t education i s becoming more o f a l i f e s t y l e i n t h i s (75%), and the expansion o f r e s p o n s i b i l i t y t o i n c l u d e  province  c o - o r d i n a t i o n o f community s c h o o l s (84-%), I f adult education a c t i v i t i e s  are t o be f u l l y  recog-  n i z e d i n each s c h o o l d i s t r i c t by the appointment of an a d m i n i s t r a t o r , there w i l l be a need f o r i n d i v i d u a l s t r a i n e d i n the f i e l d o f a d u l t e d u c a t i o n .  There w i l l a l s o be a p r o v i n c e -  wide r e c o g n i t i o n through these p r o j e c t e d appointments o f the e q u a l i t y o f importance o f c o n t i n u i n g e d u c a t i o n with K t o 12 p u b l i c school  activities.  Number o f s c h o o l d i s t r i c t s s c h o o l programs. districts 63,  o f f e r i n g public night  The median estimate  o f the number o f s c h o o l  o f f e r i n g p u b l i c n i g h t s c h o o l programs b y 1984 was  which i s c o n s i s t e n t w i t h the 1971 f i g u r e .  no more s c h o o l d i s t r i c t s  w i l l o f f e r continuing  programs than do p r e s e n t l y .  I n other words, education  The prime f a c t o r i n t h i s  indi-  c a t o r was f e l t t o be t h a t community c o l l e g e s w i l l i n c r e a s i n g l y a d m i n i s t e r more o f the a d u l t education programs (72%).  When  compared with the p r o j e c t e d i n c r e a s e i n the number o f a d m i n i s t r a t o r s t h i s may imply a decrease i n the number o f school d i s t r i c t  a d m i n i s t r a t o r s o r an i n c r e a s e i n the number  of community c o l l e g e a d u l t e d u c a t i o n  administrators.  32 Enrolment i n p o s t secondary non u n i v e r s i t y t e c h n i c a l or t e r m i n a l c a r e e r programs.  The median estimate  t o t a l enrolment i n these programs was  8,800.  The  f o r the prime 1971  f a c t o r s f e l t to i n f l u e n c e t h i s growth from 5,000 i n  were t h a t t e c h n o l o g i c a l change w i l l demand more s p e c i f i c t r a i n i n g (100%), and  community c o l l e g e s w i l l continue  their  r o l e i n o f f e r i n g p r e p a r a t i o n f o r advanced u n i v e r s i t y t r a i n ing  (72%). The main i m p l i c a t i o n o f t h i s i n d i c a t o r i s t h a t t h e r e  w i l l be an i n c r e a s e d need f o r t r a i n i n g f a c i l i t i e s i n t e c h n i c a l and v o c a t i o n a l s c h o o l s .  Expansion of these types of f a c i l i t i e s  w i l l thus n e c e s s i t a t e a c o n s i d e r a b l y h i g h e r a l l o t m e n t o f funds for  the s p e c i a l i z e d t r a i n i n g equipment f o r these programs and  f o r the c o n s i s t e n t upgrading i n t e x t s and other m a t e r i a l s t h a t are c u r r e n t to the s u b j e c t matter. The  second prime f a c t o r l i s t e d here would tend  i n d i c a t e the panel's f o r e s e e i n g of the r o l e of the  to  community  c o l l e g e as more r e l a t e d t o u n i v e r s i t y p r e p a r a t i o n than c a r e e r training.  I f t h i s trend were t o develop,  then c e r t a i n l y  e x i s t i n g f a c i l i t i e s would be inadequate t o accommodate the estimated  enrolment i n c r e a s e s .  P a r t time u n i v e r s i t y t r a n s f e r enrolment i n community colleges. 1984  was  The median estimate 3,650.  from 2,000 i n 1971  of the number of students  The prime f a c t o r s i n f l u e n c i n g the were f e l t to be t h a t i n c r e a s e d  by  increase leisure  w i l l a l l o w a d u l t s to l e a r n f o r i n t e r e s t r a t h e r than income  33  s e c u r i t y (81%)  and  the c r e a t i o n of more c o l l e g e s w i l l  g r e a t e r academic o p p o r t u n i t i e s The  (100%),  i m p l i c a t i o n s of t h i s i n d i c a t o r would appear t o  that i n t e r e s t i n academically  o r i e n t e d courses w i l l  This w i l l necessitate increased the p a n e l ,  provide  s t a f f and,  be  continue.  as suggested  by  expanded f a c i l i t i e s .  N i g h t s c h o o l enrolment t e c h n i c a l / v o c a t i o n a l The median estimate f o r the t o t a l enrolment i n 1984 16,300 as compared w i t h the 1971  schools. was  enrolment o f 14,000.  The  prime f a c t o r s f e l t t o i n f l u e n c e t h i s i n d i c a t o r were: s p e c i a l i z a t i o n w i l l l e a d many t o upgrade t h e i r e m p l o y a b i l i t y  (91%);  job i n c e n t i v e s w i l l encourage e d u c a t i o n a l upgrading  (92%);  i n c r e a s e d t e c h n o l o g y and  force  i n c r e a s e d number i n labour  (75%); as f a c i l i t i e s grow, p a r t i c u l a r l y i n s m a l l e r  districts,  so w i l l enrolment (90%); more upgrading b e i n g done on-the-job on company time, b o t h i n the p u b l i c and p r i v a t e s e c t o r s a d u l t education  of  (75%).  T h i s p r o j e c t e d i n c r e a s e suggests t h a t w i t h the i n c r e a s i n g enrolment w i l l come an i n c r e a s i n g n e c e s s i t y f o r coo p e r a t i o n between employers and may  training institutions.  This  r e q u i r e s p e c i a l i z e d p e r s o n n e l t o f u l f i l l t h i s l i a s o n , or  i t may  n e c e s s i t a t e f u n d i n g by i n d u s t r y , commercial or t e r t i a r y  i n t e r e s t s of e x i s t i n g upgrading programs w i t h i n education  facilities.  continuing  Another p o s s i b i l i t y might be  increased necessity f o r consultants  an  specially trained i n  meeting the e d u c a t i o n a l needs and problems o f a d u l t s .  34 Universities' operating The  c a p i t a l expend!tures.  median estimate f o r u n i v e r s i t i e s * o p e r a t i n g  c a p i t a l expenditures i n 1984 135  c o s t s and  m i l l i o n i n 1971.  The  c a t o r were f e l t t o be:  was  costs  and  180 m i l l i o n compared w i t h  prime f a c t o r s a f f e c t i n g t h i s  i n f l a t i o n and  indi-  the i n c r e a s i n g demand  f o r the b e s t o f equipment (90%); l e s s emphasis on expansion and b u i l d i n g s and more emphasis on " r e c y c l i n g " o f  present  (72%); community c o l l e g e s r e c e i v i n g l a r g e r amounts  facilities  of p r o v i n c i a l funding  f o r post  (72%).  secondary e d u c a t i o n  Although s u b s t a n t i a l , t h i s p r o j e c t e d i n c r e a s e d o f 45 m i l l i o n i s not n e a r l y as l a r g e as t h a t d u r i n g p e r i o d 1961  to 1971  which was  from 60 t o 135  cost  the  million.  T h i s p r o j e c t e d estimate would suggest t h a t u n i v e r s i t i e s are not  f o r e s e e n by the p a n e l as g r e a t l y expanding w i t h i n  the decade.  I t may  i n s t i t u t i o n s w i l l be more pressure  be t h a t expenditures f o r p o s t  secondary  "fanned out" over the c o l l e g e s , and  that  w i l l be put upon the u n i v e r s i t i e s t o make them-  s e l v e s more community s e r v i c e o r i e n t e d . As the c l o s e s t means of e s t a b l i s h i n g t h i s l i n k w i t h the community i s the u n i v e r s i t y ' s e x t e n s i o n education  u n i t , the next decade may  expansion o f these departments and  or  see both  continuing  considerable  a l s o the e x t e n s i o n  of p a r t  time degree g r a n t i n g f a c i l i t i e s i n order t o meet changing community needs. F u l l time u n i v e r s i t y enrolment.  The  median estimate  o f f u l l time enrolment at u n i v e r s i t i e s by 1984  was  48,000 as  compared with 37,500 i n 1971.  The  prime f a c t o r s i n f l u e n c i n g  t h i s i n d i c a t o r were seen as the need f o r u n i v e r s i t y p o l i c i e s (83%),  t o expand to i n c l u d e t o t a l coverage i n the p r o v i n c e  the l o s s of the u n i v e r s i t i e s * appeal to the young (75%), an i n c r e a s i n g demand f o r v o c a t i o n a l , t e c h n i c a l and programs (87%).  The  career  p r o j e c t e d i n c r e a s e i s not n e a r l y  dramatic as t h a t of the p e r i o d from 1961  t o 1971  and  as  when e n r o l -  ments went from 23,000 t o 37,000. The  i m p l i c a t i o n of t h i s p r o j e c t i o n would suggest t h a t  the u n i v e r s i t i e s w i l l r e q u i r e a pronounced s h i f t i n p o l i c y , perhaps t o the extent  ( a t l e a s t f o r f u l l time students) o f  l i m i t i n g f a c i l i t i e s to p r o f e s s i o n a l t r a i n i n g o n l y . e v e n t u a l l y r e s u l t i n the e l i m i n a t i o n of the bachelor  This  could  generalized  o f a r t s degree. U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h Columbia's Department o f A d u l t  E d u c a t i o n enrolment.  The  median estimate f o r enrolment i n  the Department of Adult E d u c a t i o n by 1984 as compared with 130  i n 1971•  the p r o j e c t e d i n c r e a s e was  275  students  prime f a c t o r i n f l u e n c i n g  t h a t many more people w i l l  the f i e l d as a d u l t education of o f f e r i n g s increases  The  was  gains r e c o g n i t i o n and  enter  the number  (80%).  There have c e r t a i n l y been i n d i c a t i o n s i n  previous  i n d i c a t o r s t h a t t h e r e w i l l be an i n c r e a s e d need f o r t r a i n e d a d u l t educators.  J u s t as the f i e l d of p u b l i c s c h o o l  moved toward c e r t i f i c a t i o n , u n i o n i z a t i o n and  education  standardization  through r e q u i r e d t r a i n i n g p e r i o d s , i t would appear t h a t  c o n t i n u i n g e d u c a t i o n w i l l a l s o change i n t h i s  direction.  T h i s would a l s o imply the growing n e c e s s i t y f o r p e r s o n n e l t o t r a i n the a d u l t educators, PROBABILITY AND  SEQUENCE OF EVENTS  T h i s p o r t i o n of the study r e p o r t s the d a t a from Q u e s t i o n n a i r e Three i n two  separate s e c t i o n s .  The  first  s e c t i o n w i l l express the median f o r those f i f t e e n p o t e n t i a l events which the p a n e l estimated: w i l l c h r o n o l o g i c a l l y be most l i k e l y t o occur (the l i k e l i h o o d of occurrence  the  reaches  50%) over the next s i x y e a r s ; w i l l be l i k e l y to occur by 1984  as expressed i n percentages o f 70% and over; and  will  have a moderate t o g r e a t e f f e c t on a d u l t e d u c a t i o n . As w e l l as t h i s i n f o r m a t i o n , those changes or causes of  changes i n a d u l t e d u c a t i o n r e s u l t i n g from the occurrence  of  the p o t e n t i a l events f o r which the p a n e l reached a 70%  agreement w i l l be p r e s e n t e d , p l u s i m p l i c a t i o n s t h a t appear t o be j u s t i f i e d .  The d a t a w i l l be o f f e r e d i n t h i s  particular  manner because i t enables the r e a d e r t o t r a c e the p o t e n t i a l events which may  occur i n a d u l t e d u c a t i o n i n the  chronology  or time frame i n which t h e y might be a n t i c i p a t e d t o occur, and because t h e r e was  a s i g n i f i c a n t c o r r e l a t i o n ( f o u r t e e n out  of  f i f t e e n p o t e n t i a l events) between those events  to  occur i n the next s i x y e a r s with a h i g h (70%)  of occurrence by 1980. prime importance the y e a r s 1974  anticipated likelihood  These two f a c t o r s were c o n s i d e r e d of  as the time frame f o r the study encompasses  t o 1984,  thus the f i r s t f i f t e e n events presented  here are i n c h r o n o l o g i c a l o r d e r f o r the p e r i o d 1974  to  1980.  S i m i l a r d a t a are then presented  f o r nine events t h a t were  p r e d i c t e d t o occur between 1980  and  1974  .  1984.  1980 V o c a t i o n a l t r a i n i n g w i l l be p r o v i d e d  a l l those who estimate  are unemployed but employable.  when l i k e l i h o o d o f occurrence  and the l i k e l i h o o d of occurrence The median estimated  a t no c o s t t o The  median  reached 50% was  by 1984  was  1980,  estimated  e f f e c t on a d u l t education was  at  considered  to be great while the agreed changes i n a d u l t education may  occur were more r e - t r a i n i n g of women (88%), and  75%.  that  industry  w i l l become more automated so t h a t t r a i n i n g w i l l be e s s e n t i a l to keep pace ( 9 4 % ) .  The  cause of t h i s p r o j e c t e d change  agreed t o be i n c r e a s e d technology  and  was  a s h o r t e r work week  (80%). The  i m p l i c a t i o n s of t h i s p o t e n t i a l event are a g r e a t e r  need f o r c o - o p e r a t i o n between f e d e r a l l y supported  training  programs such as Canada Manpower's B a s i c T r a i n i n g f o r S k i l l Development, and  e x i s t i n g f a c i l i t i e s to p r o v i d e them.  Both  c o l l e g e s and n i g h t s c h o o l s are a l r e a d y becoming i n v o l v e d with t h i s f e d e r a l economic h e l p , but i f t h i s p r o j e c t e d event were t o take p l a c e , a c o n s i d e r a b l y l a r g e r s e c t i o n of the p o p u l a t i o n w i l l need t o be accommodated.  Vancouver V o c a t i o n a l  I n s t i t u t e , f o r example, has w a i t i n g l i s t s and a l i m i t e d number of s e a t s a v a i l a b l e f o r Manpower students. need t o operate  Facilities  will  f u l l y on perhaps a twenty-four hour per  day  38 schedule i n order t o f u l f i l l t h i s p r o j e c t i o n . More i s o l a t e d p a r t s o f the p r o v i n c e w i l l r e q u i r e e i t h e r expanded  local  f a c i l i t i e s , o r accommodation near e x i s t i n g f a c i l i t i e s  will  need t o be p r o v i d e d . T h i s p o t e n t i a l event would a l s o have an i n f l u e n c e on the expansion  o f day care and drop i n c e n t r e s i n order t o  provide f o r c h i l d r e n of single parents.  A further implication  of t h i s event would be a s t r i n g e n t and p r a c t i c a b l e scheme f o r a s s e s s i n g employment needs w i t h i n the p r o v i n c e and a c h a n n e l l i n g or d i r e c t i n g o f p r o s p e c t i v e employees i n t o t r a i n i n g i n these areas.  P a r t i c u l a r a t t e n t i o n would be r e q u i r e d t o f u l f i l l  manpower needs i n n o r t h e r n a r e a s , d i s t a n t from urban c e n t r e s . I n c r e a s e d ^ c o s t o f l i v i n g w i l l r e s u l t i n 50% o f f a m i l i e s b e i n g supported b y two incomes.  The median estimate when  l i k e l i h o o d o f occurrence reached  50% was 1980,  and the l i k e l i -  hood o f occurrence b y 1984 was estimated a t 80%.  The median  estimated e f f e c t on a d u l t e d u c a t i o n was c o n s i d e r e d t o be moderate while the agreed changes t h a t might occur were: more t r a i n i n g programs w i l l be r e q u i r e d f o r wives going t o work (9^-%); more p r e - s c h o o l s w i l l be needed ( 8 1 % ) ; and a g r e a t need f o r upgrading (71%).  and r e - t r a i n i n g women w i t h  families  The causes of t h i s change were agreed t o be the r e s u l t  of an improved s t a t u s o f women i n s o c i e t y ( 8 1 % ) , a d e s i r e f o r m a i n t a i n i n g a standard o f l i v i n g  (76%), and a d e s i r e o f  wives t o r e t u r n t o work (71%)• The  i m p l i c a t i o n s o f t h i s p o t e n t i a l event would appear  39  to be again related to day care, family service t r a i n i n g centres ( p a r t i c u l a r l y f o r men), and a t o t a l r e v i s i o n of curriculum i n the K to 1 2 education span more oriented to active working roles f o r women i n order to ensure family s o l i d a r i t y i f t h i s event occurs. A portion of the curriculum f o r a l l children from K to 1 2 w i l l be devoted spfici f i r . q l l v to l i f e l o n g learning. The median estimate when l i k e l i h o o d of occurrence reached 50% was 1 9 8 0 , and the l i k e l i h o o d of occurrence by 1984- was e s t i mated at 75%.  The median estimated e f f e c t on adult education  was considered to be moderate, while the agreed changes that may occur were: extensive upgrading on a part time basis ( 7 2 % ) ; need f o r academic adult education courses when interest i n creases i n the older years ( 7 8 % ) ; more people w i l l return f o r continuous learning a c t i v i t i e s ( 8 3 % ) .  The causes of t h i s  change were agreed to be changing values and l e i s u r e time activities  (88%).  I f K to 1 2 students are directed throughout  their  public school education to consider that t h e i r education w i l l be a continuing process and an i n t r i n s i c part of t h e i r l i v e s , the obvious r e s u l t w i l l be that continuing education becomes an i n t e g r a l part of the entire educational process. P r o v i n c i a l l y operated c h i l d care centres (under 6 ) and drop i n centres ( 6 to 1 2 + ) w i l l be provided l o c a l l y . The median estimate when l i k e l i h o o d of occurrence reached 50% i s 1 9 8 0 , and the l i k e l i h o o d of occurrence by 1984- was 80%.  40 The median estimated e f f e c t on a d u l t education was moderate and the agreed changes i n a d u l t education t h a t may occur were: t h i s event w i l l f r e e women t o work, t h e r e b y i n c r e a s i n g the p o t e n t i a l f o r t h e i r t r a i n i n g  (73%);  more daytime a d u l t  e d u c a t i o n o f f e r i n g s ( 8 8 % ) ; and i n d i v i d u a l s w i l l be able t o pursue p a r t and/or f u l l time t r a i n i n g ( 9 4 % ) .  The cause o f  t h i s change was agreed t o be an i n c r e a s e i n the l a b o r f o r c e and p r e - r e q u i s i t e t r a i n i n g  (77%)«  The i m p l i c a t i o n s of t h i s p o t e n t i a l event would both the working and l e i s u r e p u r s u i t s o f women.  affect  I n order t o  m a i n t a i n a s t a b l e s o c i a l order i n the f a c e o f change, the i m p l i c a t i o n s f o r women t o combine t h e i r r o l e as homemaker with s t i m u l a t i n g b u t n o t n e c e s s a r i l y employment-oriented c o n t i n u i n g e d u c a t i o n programs, e s p e c i a l l y d u r i n g the day, might be e x t e n s i v e . for  Day care c e n t r e s w i t h s u f f i c i e n t  c a s u a l as w e l l as f u l l time day care would permit  facilities those  women who chose homemaking as a c a r e e r t o have an a d d i t i o n a l o p p o r t u n i t y t o e n r i c h t h e i r l i v e s through c o n t i n u i n g e d u c a t i o n d u r i n g the e a r l i e r stages o f c h i l d r e a r i n g without t h e i r e n t i r e daytime r o l e as mother.  sacrificing  Arrangements f o r p a r t  time day care would perhaps be contingent upon p r o o f of e n r o l ment i n e d u c a t i o n a l r a t h e r than p u r e l y s o c i a l  activities.  Another i m p l i c a t i o n might be the i n c r e a s e d p o s s i b i l i t y for  s i n g l e parents t o have more r e l i a b l e and c o n t r o l l e d  care  for  t h e i r c h i l d r e n and t h i s i n t u r n might ease the burden o f  p o s s i b l e d e l i n q u e n c y among those c h i l d r e n o f working p a r e n t s who a r e p r e s e n t l y u n s u p e r v i s e d .  41 A l l organized communities w i l l provide free neighbourhood counselling services and programs f o r a l l adults who them to upgrade t h e i r education.  The median estimate when  l i k e l i h o o d of occurrence reaches 50% was hood of occurrence by 1984  was  desire  1980,  and the  estimated at 95%.  estimated e f f e c t on adult education was  likeli-  The median  considered  to be  moderate while the agreed changes i n adult education that might; occur were: administrators,  counsellors, and teachers would be  needed i n greater numbers (88%); increased interest  and  p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n adult education programs (77%), more administ r a t i v e assistants needed (75%)• The implication of t h i s potential event would be  the  increased a c c e s s i b i l i t y of i n s t i t u t i o n s to the general p u b l i c . As many adults may be vaguely aware of educational  opportunities  but unsure of or lacking the time f o r more extensive  enquiries,  such a service, p a r t i c u l a r l y i n the evening hours, would provide a f a r more embrasive and accessible overview of upgrading opportunities.  Such neighbourhood services would need to be  co-sponsored either by a l l p o t e n t i a l i n s t i t u t i o n s or by p r o v i n c i a l government thus eliminating the inherent of nepotism rather than c l i e n t service. Douglas College i s contemplating two would be an extension operations.  the  possibility  As previously mentioned,  such p i l o t centres which  of the present BTSD storefront  42 50% o f s c h o o l s (elementary and secondary)  will  encourage community p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n both f o r m a l and i n f o r m a l programs a f t e r s c h o o l , i n evenings, and on weekends.  The  median estimate when l i k e l i h o o d  50%  was  1980,  and the l i k e l i h o o d of occurrence by 1984  mated a t 70%. was  of occurrence reaches was  esti-  The median estimated e f f e c t on a d u l t e d u c a t i o n  c o n s i d e r e d t o be moderate w h i l e the agreed changes i n  a d u l t education t h a t may  occur were t h a t t h e r e w i l l be more  a d m i n i s t r a t i v e t a s k s f o r a d u l t e d u c a t i o n p e r s o n n e l ( 8 8 % ) ; and participation  from s c h o o l s i n the a c t i v e encouragement of  a d u l t e d u c a t i o n would c r e a t e new would i n c r e a s e a c t u a l enrolment  interest  and a p p r o v a l which  numbers g r e a t l y (70%);  and  a d u l t e d u c a t i o n might be r e q u i r e d t o get more i n v o l v e d and a s s i s t i n the c o - o r d i n a t i o n o f community s c h o o l s (70%). A f u l l time n i g h t s c h o o l d i r e c t o r i n each s c h o o l d i s t r i c t o f f e r i n g a d u l t e d u c a t i o n courses w i l l be  appointed.  The median estimate when l i k e l i h o o d o f occurrence  reached  50% was  1982,  and the l i k e l i h o o d of occurrence by 1984  estimated a t 90%. c a t i o n was  was  The median estimated e f f e c t on a d u l t edu-  c o n s i d e r e d t o be g r e a t while the agreed changes  i n a d u l t e d u c a t i o n t h a t may  occur were: t h i s w i l l o n l y happen  i n d i s t r i c t s with l a r g e or growing p o p u l a t i o n s and would r e s u l t i n an i n c r e a s e i n a d m i n i s t r a t i v e work (71%); a much more v i t a l , p r o v i n c i a l program would develop  (77%);  and  t h e r e w i l l be more people i n v o l v e d w i t h a d u l t e d u c a t i o n ( 8 2 % ) . The cause o f t h i s change was  agreed t o be the e x t e n s i o n of  43 the  s c h o o l day The  and  a broadening of the  age  groups served  (82%),  i m p l i c a t i o n s brought out by the p a n e l f o r t h i s  p o t e n t i a l event would appear to be terms of acceptance o f and  quite f a r reaching i n  i n c e n t i v e toward a c o n t i n u i n g  growing a d u l t e d u c a t i o n movement.  The  and  panel's b e l i e f i n a  more v i t a l p r o v i n c i a l program i s of c r u c i a l importance. As there appears always to be  a d i r e c t and  c o r r e l a t i o n between the number of a d m i n i s t r a t i v e h i r e d and  the e x t e n s i o n and  of a t l e a s t one  distinct  personnel  broadening of s e r v i c e s , the h i r i n g  f u l l time d i r e c t o r of a d u l t e d u c a t i o n must  s u r e l y l e a d to the p o s s i b i l i t y of t r a i n e d a d u l t  education  p e r s o n n e l a c t i n g as l i a i s a i s between a l l p u b l i c s c h o o l s and f u l l time d i r e c t o r would thus work with and p e r s o n n e l between d i s t r i c t s and  co-ordination  and  through f i e l d  thus e v e n t u a l l y  p r o v i n c i a l government as suggested.  a  through the  This implies that  the  r e c o g n i t i o n of a d u l t e d u c a t i o n i s not  o n l y p r a c t i c a b l e but  a l s o an e s s e n t i a l s e r v i c e w i t h i n  every  district. Because p u b l i c s c h o o l s ( p a r t i c u l a r l y a f t e r hours) are monitored and members (CUPE), the its  d i r e c t e d v e r y g r e a t l y by  w i t h u n i o n members.  might be reached through the working w i t h the  union  i m p l i c a t i o n s of t h i s p o t e n t i a l event with  r a m i f i c a t i o n s would n e c e s s i t a t e  ing conditions  school  a f u l l agreement on workT h i s p a r t i c u l a r agreement  aforementioned l i a i s o n p e r s o n n e l  education representative  i n d i v i d u a l school b o a r d s .  of CUPE, and  C e r t a i n l y a more p r a c t i c a b l e  would be f o r t h i s p o i n t t o be worked out  the solution  on a p r o v i n c i a l b a s i s .  44 C o - o r d i n a t i o n o f a d u l t education s e r v i c e s a t the r e g i o n a l and l o c a l l e v e l w i l l be i n s t i t u t e d under the a u s p i c e s o f the Department o f E d u c a t i o n .  The median estimate when  l i k e l i h o o d o f occurrence reached 50% was 1 9 7 8 , and the l i k e l i hood o f occurrence b y 1 9 8 4 was estimated a t 7 5 % •  The median  estimated e f f e c t on a d u l t education was c o n s i d e r e d t o be great while the agreed changes i n a d u l t e d u c a t i o n t h a t may occur were: t h i s w i l l r e s u l t i n d i r e c t i o n , f u n d i n g and development f o r the whole a d u l t education movement ( 7 6 % ) ; new i n t e r e s t i n a d u l t e d u c a t i o n from the Department o f Educ a t i o n w i l l c r e a t e more f i n a n c i a l support which i n t u r n w i l l c r e a t e b e t t e r c o u r s e s , t r a i n e d i n s t r u c t o r s , and i n c r e a s e d enrolment  (83%);  such c o - o r d i n a t i o n would p r o v i d e i n f o r m a t i o n  and a s s i s t a n c e i n programming and a v o i d o v e r l a p ( 8 2 % ) . Because t h i s p o t e n t i a l event, p l u s the next two bear d i r e c t l y on s i m i l a r i s s u e s , they are d e a l t w i t h as a u n i t i n a subsequent chapter. A c o - o r d i n a t o r o f a d u l t e d u c a t i o n s e r v i c e s w i l l be appointed p r o v i n c i a l l y through the Department o f E d u c a t i o n . The median estimate when l i k e l i h o o d o f occurrence reaches was 1977,  50%  and the l i k e l i h o o d o f occurrence b y 1 9 8 4 was  estimated a t 90%.  The median estimated e f f e c t on a d u l t  e d u c a t i o n was c o n s i d e r e d t o be g r e a t while the agreed changes i n a d u l t e d u c a t i o n t h a t may occur were: l o n g needed d i r e c t i o n from one a u t h o r i t y ( 7 0 % ) ; improved s t a t u s of a d u l t education (83%);  c r e a t i o n o f channels which have not been a v a i l a b l e  t o a d m i n i s t r a t o r s up t o t h i s p o i n t (78%); p r o v i s i o n of i n f o r m a t i o n , a s s i s t i n programs and a v o i d o v e r l a p (78%). 50% of o p e r a t i n g c o s t s of n i g h t s c h o o l programs w i l l be p r o v i d e d through p r o v i n c i a l funds.  The median estimate  when l i k e l i h o o d o f occurrence reaches 50% was l i k e l i h o o d o f occurrence by 1984 was  1980,  and  estimated a t 90%.  median estimated e f f e c t on a d u l t e d u c a t i o n was  the The  considered to  be g r e a t while the agreed changes i n a d u l t e d u c a t i o n t h a t  may  occur were: a g r e a t i n c r e a s e i n the number of courses o f f e r e d as enrolment  numbers would not be the prime f a c t o r s i n p r e s e n t -  i n g these courses (83%); e a s i e r t o o f f e r courses  attracting  few s t u d e n t s , t h e r e f o r e more v a r i e d programs (88%);  financial  s t a b i l i t y would ease some p r e s s u r e (88%); would p r o v i d e o p p o r t u n i t i e s t o those who  c o u l d not p a r t i c i p a t e p r e v i o u s l y  because t h e y l i v e i n s p a r s e l y populated areas (9*%); more v a r i e d and b e t t e r programming w i t h i n the f i n a n c i a l range o f more people  (88%).  Community c o l l e g e s w i l l absorb 25% of present p u b l i c school adult education administrators.  The median estimate  when l i k e l i h o o d of occurrence reached 50% was l i k e l i h o o d of occurrence by 1984 was  1980,  and  estimated a t 85%.  median estimated e f f e c t on a d u l t education was  the The  considered to  be moderate while the change i n a d u l t education t h a t may was  occur  t h a t l o c a l a d m i n i s t r a t o r s would s t i l l be s e r v i n g d i s t r i c t s  f o r l o c a l communication but would be working as p a r t o f a c o l l e g e s t a f f r e s i d e n t o u t s i d e the campus (72%).  46 The i m p l i c a t i o n s o f t h i s p o t e n t i a l event would be a c l o s e r l i a i s o n between c o l l e g e s and p r e s e n t p u b l i c s c h o o l continuing education s e r v i c e s .  Again, as d e - c e n t r a l i z a t i o n  appears t o be a major t r e n d and t r a v e l l i n g p e r s o n n e l r a t h e r than d u p l i c a t e d campuses are p r e f e r r e d , i t c o u l d be t h a t  such  an a b s o r p t i o n would be, as the p a n e l suggested, on a l i a i s o n r a t h e r than employment b a s i s . Community c o l l e g e s w i l l have "branches" i n every community i n B r i t i s h Columbia w i t h a p o p u l a t i o n o f 10,000 o r more. The median estimate when l i k e l i h o o d o f occurrence reaches 50% was 1980, and the l i k e l i h o o d o f occurrence by 1984 was e s t i mated a t 75% •  The median estimated e f f e c t on a d u l t e d u c a t i o n  was c o n s i d e r e d t o be moderate while the change i n a d u l t e d u c a t i o n t h a t may occur was an expansion i n a d u l t e d u c a t i o n s e r v i c e s (78%). The i m p l i c a t i o n s o f community c o l l e g e s e r v i c e s w i t h i n such a p o p u l a t i o n range c e r t a i n l y suggests a much broader o p p o r t u n i t y f o r p o s t secondary s e r v i c e s w i t h i n such communities thus making a t l e a s t two y e a r s o f u n i v e r s i t y t r a n s f e r courses a v a i l a b l e over a l a r g e r geographic a r e a than i s p r e s e n t l y available. The c i r c u l a r problem o f t r a i n i n g f a c i l i t i e s ,  trained  p e r s o n n e l and s u f f i c i e n t l y developed community s e r v i c e s t o a t t r a c t such a p o p u l a t i o n s h i f t has been a socio-economic problem b a s i c t o the development o f B r i t i s h Columbia's as a whole.  potential  Higher wages and f r i n g e b e n e f i t i n c e n t i v e s have been the o n l y means o f a t t r a c t i n g those i n a younger age group t o leave the Lower M a i n l a n d .  A good case i n p o i n t i s the over-  l o a d i n g of f a c i l i t i e s to p r o v i d e , f o r example, E a r l y C h i l d hood E d u c a t i o n and P r a c t i c a l N u r s i n g t r a i n i n g i n the Lower Mainland, and the i m p o s s i b i l i t y of even a t t r a c t i n g  sufficient  numbers o f p a r t i c i p a n t s t o make these programs e c o n o m i c a l l y f e a s i b l e i n o u t l y i n g areas. t h i s p o t e n t i a l event  T h e r e f o r e , the occurrence of  (perhaps with t r a v e l g r a n t s and b o a r d i n g  f a c i l i t i e s ) might a t t r a c t students t o l e s s crowded f a c i l i t i e s , and,  a f t e r course completion, remain i n the community t o  c o n t r i b u t e t o i t s growth and development. A l l u n i v e r s i t i e s , colleges, school d i s t r i c t adult e d u c a t i o n and r e c r e a t i o n commissions w i l l c o - o r d i n a t e t h e i r activities  to avoid overlap of s e r v i c e s.  when l i k e l i h o o d o f occurrence reached  The median estimate  50% was 1980,  and the  l i k e l i h o o d o f occurrence by 1984- was estimated a t 78%«  The  median estimated e f f e c t on adult e d u c a t i o n was c o n s i d e r e d t o be moderate while the changes i n a d u l t e d u c a t i o n t h a t may occur were b e t t e r community s e r v i c e (72%) and more use of r e s o u r c e s w i t h i n the community A l l adult education a c t i v i t i e s  (70%). w i l l be a shared  r e s p o n s i b i l i t y between p u b l i c n i g h t s c h o o l and colleges. reached  efficient  community  The median estimate when l i k e l i h o o d o f occurrence  50% was 1980, and the l i k e l i h o o d o f occurrence by  1984- was estimated a t 80%.  The median estimated e f f e c t on  a d u l t e d u c a t i o n was  c o n s i d e r e d t o be moderate, w h i l e the  changes i n a d u l t e d u c a t i o n t h a t may  occur were an i n c r e a s e  i n the exchange of i d e a s (71%), and s c h o o l boards w i l l s u p p l y f a c i l i t i e s while c o l l e g e s w i l l co-ordinate adult education (70%). U n i v e r s i t i e s w i l l extend degree programs throughout the p r o v i n c e through a combination of correspondence t r a v e l l i n g p r o f e s s o r s who  and  w i l l h o l d weekend seminars i n l e s s  populated areas of B r i t i s h Columbia.  The median estimate  when l i k e l i h o o d o f occurrence reached 50% was l i k e l i h o o d of occurrence by 1984- was  1980,  and the  estimated a t 75%«  Tbe  median estimated e f f e c t on a d u l t e d u c a t i o n was c o n s i d e r e d t o be moderate w h i l e the changes i n a d u l t e d u c a t i o n were t h a t more u n i v e r s i t i e s would develop t h e i r e x t e n s i o n d i v i s i o n s (83%) and the t i m e t a b l i n g of courses w i l l be planned i n conj u n c t i o n with l o c a l needs, not n e c e s s a r i l y j u s t f o r weekends (78%). The i m p l i c a t i o n s of t h i s p o t e n t i a l event might e i t h e r an e x t e n s i o n of undergraduate  and postgraduate  be degrees  on a p a r t time b a s i s through u n i v e r s i t i e s or a p o s s i b l e expansion of the community c o l l e g e s t o a f o u r y e a r undergraduate degree program, l e a v i n g postgraduate degrees t o the universities.  A much broader i m p l i c a t i o n would be  an  e x t e n s i o n t o the u n i v e r s i t y o f the p r e s e n t t r e n d toward  de-  c e n t r a l i z a t i o n d i s t i n c t l y n o t i c e a b l e a t the community c o l l e g e level.  1980  - 1984 Most employers w i l l f i n d v a l u e i n a d u l t e d u c a t i o n as  a management t o o l .  The median estimate when l i k e l i h o o d o f  occurrence reaches 50% i s 1984, and the l i k e l i h o o d o f o c c u r rence by 1984 i s 60%.  The median estimated e f f e c t on a d u l t  e d u c a t i o n was c o n s i d e r e d t o be moderate while t h e agreed changes i n a d u l t e d u c a t i o n t h a t may occur were: more demand f o r a d u l t education courses ( 8 8 % ) ; employers w i l l arrange f o r s p e c i f i c courses f o r t h e i r s t a f f s through n i g h t s c h o o l s wherever p o s s i b l e ( 8 2 % ) ; employers w i l l encourage s t a f f participation  i n e x i s t i n g a d u l t education programs (71%),  and l o c a l l y developed programs w i l l be demanded p u t t i n g the onus on the d i s t r i c t s t o p r o v i d e them (70%). The i m p l i c a t i o n s of t h i s p o t e n t i a l  event appear t o  r e s t almost e n t i r e l y i n the v a l u e and t r u s t p l a c e d b y t h e company i t s e l f i n the e f f i c i e n c y o f a d u l t e d u c a t i o n programs p r o v i d e d o u t s i d e the company as many companies o f f e r job t r a i n i n g and upgrading programs  on-the-  themselves.  The c h i e f problems w i t h much s m a l l e r and l e s s  sophisti-  cated companies o f f e r i n g t h e i r own c o n t i n u i n g e d u c a t i o n programs, i s t h a t w h i l e t h e i r t r a i n e r s know t h e i r j o b s , t h e y have not n e c e s s a r i l y the s k i l l s r e q u i s i t e trainees.  f o r t e a c h i n g the  The i m p l i c a t i o n s o f t h i s problem might be the  movement o f a d u l t e d u c a t i o n i n t o the f i e l d o f t r a i n i n g the trainers  i n the problems s p e c i f i c t o the t e a c h i n g o f a d u l t s ,  p a r t i c u l a r l y o l d e r ones.  50 There w i l l be a 30% i n c r e a s e i n enrolment i n the 50 t o 44 years age group i n p u b l i c s c h o o l a d u l t e d u c a t i o n beyond the normal i n c r e a s e t i e d t o p o p u l a t i o n . estimate and  programs  The median  when l i k e l i h o o d o f occurrence reached 50% was 1984,  the l i k e l i h o o d o f occurrence by 1984 was 50%.  estimated  e f f e c t on a d u l t education  was c o n s i d e r e d  great while the agreed changes i n a d u l t e d u c a t i o n  The median t o be t h a t may  occur were: more v a r i e t y i n courses w i l l be r e q u i r e d need f o r continuous r a t h e r than once i n a l i f e t i m e  (100%);  training  w i l l i n c r e a s e enrolment i n many d i f f e r e n t types o f a d u l t education programs (94%); g r e a t e r demand f o r r e c r e a t i o n a l as w e l l as upgrading programs (75%). That there are i m p l i c a t i o n s f o r t h i s g r e a t e r p r o j e c t e d demand f o r programs i n t h i s p a r t i c u l a r age group are i n c r e a s i n g l y v e r i f i e d b y changing s o c i a l c o n d i t i o n s i n North America. There i s not o n l y a renewed s o c i o l o g i c a l i n t e r e s t i n t h i s age group but a l s o an a c c e l e r a t e d r e s e a r c h i n the developmental tasks of i n d i v i d u a l s throughout t h e i r  lives.  A r e c e n t t e l e v i s i o n documentary "The Middle Years" p o i n t s out t h a t i n t h i s age b r a c k e t t h e r e are a l t e r n a t i n g p e r i o d s of c r i s i s and c o n s o l i d a t i o n .  I f increased  enrolment  i s t o be expected, perhaps the nature o f courses should be broadened to i n c l u d e not o n l y courses t h a t o f f e r p a l l i a t i v e s f o r i n c r e a s e d l e i s u r e time but a l s o programs o f a p s y c h o l o g i c a l and  s o c i o l o g i c a l nature t o a i d t h i s group i n r e c o g n i z i n g and  coping w i t h i t s own development.  51  Community schools w i l l develop under the administration of the public school system with adult education personnel. The median estimate when l i k e l i h o o d of occurrence 50% was 1984, 60%.  reached  and the l i k e l i h o o d of occurrence by 1984  was  The median estimated e f f e c t on adult education was  con-  sidered to be moderate, while the agreed changes i n adult education were considered to be an onus on the d i s t r i c t to co-ordinate t h i s type of learning (°A%), greater community involvement  with schools and programs (77%), and changes i n  the scope and horizon of adult education (82%). The implications of t h i s event may have less to do with who  actually administers the community schools than  sound or successful i s the concept i t s e l f .  how  I f communities  served by community schools are defined as the elementary school d i s t r i c t population, then that area has either to be taught or encouraged to consider i t s e l f as a microcosm within the large community, township, or municipality i n which i t exists. The trend i n North America i n general, and Canada i n p a r t i c u l a r has not been toward a communal, co-operative type of existence upon which t h e s i s the community school i s based. In the Peoples' Republic of China the concept of communal l i v i n g i s i n t r i n s i c to the culture - one trades or shares h i s knowledge f r e e l y and i n an organized fashion with h i s neighbours.  The Canadian concept of free enterprise, however,  tends to negate the concept basic to the p r a c t i c a b i l i t y of the f u l l implementation  of the community school.  The  implication of t h i s p o t e n t i a l event would therefore appear to be i n the t r a i n i n g of the people within the designated area of not only the p o s i t i v e p o s s i b i l i t i e s inherent i n the community school but also the necessity f o r t h e i r o f f e r i n g services to t h e i r neighbours on a voluntary b a s i s .  The  community school concept may thus need to be preceded by community education. In-service adult education teaching techniques w i l l be provided f o r a l l educators i n community colleges who adults.  teach  The median estimate when l i k e l i h o o d of occurrence  reaches 50% i s 1984, and the l i k e l i h o o d of occurrence by i s 60%,  1984  The median estimated e f f e c t on adult education was  considered to be moderate, while the agreed changes i n adult education that may  occur were an extension of t r a i n i n g to a l l  adult education public schools courses as well (81%), and an improved quality of course content and presentation, no doubt increasing public i n t e r e s t i n adult education effectiveness (75%). The implications f o r t h i s p o t e n t i a l event have ramifications outside colleges i n public night schools and possibly even u n i v e r s i t i e s .  C e r t i f i c a t i o n has been mandatory  f o r a number of years f o r instructors i n K to 12, therefore why the two thirds of the number taught i n the K to 12 bracket who are participants i n public night schools alone should be taught by untrained personnel i s c e r t a i n l y a question f o r consideration.  The implication may be that a l l instructors  53  of adults within the j u r i s d i c t i o n of the Department of Education be required to attend workshops and seminars i n adult education teaching techniques or that, as pointed out by a smaller percentage of the panel, the specialty of teaching adults be emphasized as a regular part of teacher t r a i n i n g f o r the teaching c e r t i f i c a t e i n the province (52%). S p e c i f i c on the job programs w i l l be developed.to a l l e v i a t e boredom i n tedious or repetitious i n d u s t r i a l or factory jobs.  The median estimate when l i k e l i h o o d of occurrence  reached 50% was 1984, and the l i k e l i h o o d of occurrence by 1984 was 55%. The median estimated e f f e c t on adult education was considered to be moderate while the agreed change i n adult education that may occur was an involvement i n a s s i s t i n g with and co-ordinating such programs (75%). Community colleges and industry w i l l share  personnel  i n order that colleges can provide job t r a i n i n g f a c i l i t i e s and programs suitable f o r changing employment needs i n industry.  The median estimate when l i k e l i h o o d of occurrence  reaches 50% was 1984, and the l i k e l i h o o d of occurrence by 1984 i s 50%. The median estimated effect on adult education i s considered to be moderate while the agreed change i n adult education that might occur was that there w i l l be an increased use of paraprofessionals (82%). The p o s s i b i l i t i e s inherent i n the introduction of the use of paraprofessionals by the panel offers an i n t e r e s t i n g consideration.  Paraprofessionals may become an essential  "halfway" group used not only to free f u l l y q u a l i f i e d professionals f o r more specialized tasks, but also to provide basic, services not requiring the more extensive training.  professional  The trend appears toward the p o s i t i o n of aide,  and the implications involved with the concept of paraprofessions  as aides i n the f i e l d s of law, medicine and  education have f a r reaching p o s s i b i l i t i e s i n terms of adult education.  Co-operation between professional groups, adult  educators, l i c e n c i n g authorities and the development of requisite paraprofessional t r a i n i n g centres would appear to be the r e s p o n s i b i l i t y of adult education within a larger supervisory framework as, f o r example, the p r o v i n c i a l government. A l l employees who  need r e - t r a i n i n g to carry on t h e i r  .jobs w i l l be paid by t h e i r employers at the same wage l e v e l during t h e i r r e - t r a i n i n g period.  The median estimate when  l i k e l i h o o d of occurrence reached 50% was lihood of occurrence by 1984 effect on adult education was  was 60%.  1984,  and the  like-  The median estimated  considered  to be moderate, while  the agreed changes i n adult education that may  occur were  that technology w i l l be accepted and unions must  recognize,  co-operate and encourage r e - t r a i n i n g (75%)» and the creation of a need f o r additional t r a i n i n g programs i n a l l areas (94%).  55 University or college instructors w i l l t r a v e l according to the educational needs of communities rather than students. The median estimate when l i k e l i h o o d of occurrence reached 50% i s 1984, and the l i k e l i h o o d of occurrence by 1984 was  60%,  The median estimated e f f e c t on adult education was considered to be moderate while the agreed changes i n adult education that may  occur were extensive growth of extension departments  of colleges and u n i v e r s i t i e s (94%), and the p o s s i b i l i t y f o r many people to attend and graduate from u n i v e r s i t i e s , which has not been possible f o r them to do i n the past (88%). The "open" u n i v e r s i t y concept w i l l be implemented i n order to reach more students at less cost.  The median  estimate when l i k e l i h o o d of occurrence reached 50% was and the l i k e l i h o o d of occurrence by 1984 was 50%,  1980,  The median  estimated e f f e c t on adult education was considered to be moderate, while the change i n adult education that might be expected would be a new  source of students.  Fraser Valley's  next college w i l l probably start with t h i s concept (75%); p o t e n t i a l l y added load to out of the way d i s t r i c t s (75%)• The implications of t h i s potential event bear upon the p o r t a b i l i t y or t r a n s f e r a b i l i t y of a concept or innovation from one country to another, or within Canada from one province to another.  The open u n i v e r s i t y i n B r i t a i n depends heavily  on the p u b l i c l y owned and financed BBC,  With the exception  of the v a r i e t i e s of Cable Ten i n the Lower Mainland areas, the CRTC has thus f a r refused f u l l scale l i c e n c i n g even to  56 the p r o v i n c i a l government of t h i s p a r t i c u l a r band.  The  CBC  which i n no way corresponds to the BBC, has no equivalent to the closest equivalent to the BBC i n North America, NET the PBS system i n the United States,  or  Without co-operation and  financing from the p r o v i n c i a l government as well as the federal government f o r the establishment of one broadcasting channel, either radio or t e l e v i s i o n , i t i s u n l i k e l y that t h i s concept w i l l be implemented.  Chapter 5 GOALS FOR ADULT EDUCATION IN BRITISH COLUMBIA Olaf Helmer, one of the creators of the Delphi method has said: "We must cease to be the onlookers at the spectaole of world history and must instead influence h i s t o r y with the intention of shaping the future." (3:16)  I t i s the purpose  of t h i s chapter to present the t o t a l implications of t h i s study by using data about the future of adult education, from a panel composed of those knowledgeable i n the f i e l d of adult education, to encourage a l l those presently involved i n adult education, to u t i l i z e t h i s information i n helping to shape the future of adult education over the next ten years i n British  Columbia. SUMMARY The p r i n c i p a l findings of the study are summarized  i n Tables 1 and 2 on the following pages.  The projected  s t a t i s t i c a l indicators f o r the population and educational enrolments are displayed i n Table 1, while Table 2 shows a chronology of expected events by projected year and l i k e l i h o o d of occurrence by 1984.  57  58 Table 1 Projected S t a t i s t i c a l Indicators f o r 1 9 8 4  1.  1,250,000 persons i n labour force ( 9 0 5 , 0 0 0 i n  2.  Totals of age groups: a)  1 0 to 1 9 -  b)  2 0 to  24  - 325,000 (200,000 i n  197D  c)  3 5 to 44  - 395,000 (252,000 i n  1971)  1971).  500,000 (425,000 i n 1 9 7 1 )  3.  Number of women as a percentage of t o t a l labour force as 56% (36% i n 1 9 7 D  4.  T o t a l populations i n urban Vancouver and a) b)  Rossland.  Vancouver - 500,000 (450,000 i n 1 9 7 1 ) Rossland - 5,000 (2,800 i n 1 9 7 1 )  5.  11,000 public night school instructors  6.  7 0 public night school administrators i n adult education (52 in 1971)  7.  63 school d i s t r i c t s o f f e r i n g night school •programs (63 i n 1 9 7 1 )  8.  8,800 enrolled i n post secondary/non u n i v e r s i t y technical or terminal career programs (5,000 i n 1 9 7 1 )  9.  3,650 part time U n i v e r s i t y Transfer students enrolled i n community colleges (2,000 i n 1 9 7 1 )  (8,500  in  1971)  10.  16,300 night school students enrolled i n t e c h n i c a l / vocational schools (14,000 i n 1 9 7 1 )  11.  180 m i l l i o n d o l l a r s for a l l B r i t i s h Columbia u n i v e r s i t i e s operating and c a p i t a l expenditures ( 1 3 5 m i l l i o n d o l l a r s in 197D  12.  48,000 f u l l time students enrolled at u n i v e r s i t y in 197D  13.  2 7 5 students enrolled i n University of B r i t i s h Columbia's Department of Adult Education ( 1 3 0 i n 1 9 7 1 )  (37,500  59 Table 2 Chronology of P o t e n t i a l Events  P o t e n t i a l Event  1.  2.  3.  4.  5.  6.  7.  8.  Projected Year  Likelihood of Occurrence by 1984 ( i n %)  A co-ordinator of adult education services w i l l be appointed provi n c i a l l y through the Department of Education.  1977  90%  Co-ordination of adult education services at the regional and l o c a l l e v e l w i l l be i n s t i t u t e d under the auspices of the Department of Education.  1978  75  A l l organized communities w i l l provide free neighbourhood couns e l l i n g service and program planning f o r a l l adults who desire them regarding upgrading t h e i r education.  1980  95  P r o v i n c i a l l y operated day care centres (under 6) and drop i n centres (6 to 12+) w i l l be provided l o c a l l y .  1980  95  50% of operating costs of night school programs w i l l be provided through p r o v i n c i a l funds.  1980  90  A f u l l time night school d i r e c t o r (public night school) i n a l l school d i s t r i c t s o f f e r i n g night school courses w i l l be appointed.  1980  90  Community colleges w i l l absorb 25% Of present public school adult education administrators.  1980  85  A portion of the curriculum f o r a l l children from K to 12 w i l l be devoted s p e c i f i c a l l y to l i f e long learning as opposed to end-goal oriented education.  1980  80  60 Table 2 (continued) P o t e n t i a l Event  9.  10.  11.  12.  15.  14.  15.  16.  Projected Year  Likelihood of Occurrence by 1984( i n %)  A l l adult education a c t i v i t i e s w i l l be a shared r e s p o n s i b i l i t y between public night schools and community colleges.  1980  80%  Increased cost of l i v i n g w i l l r e s u l t i n 50% of families being supported by two incomes (husband and wife's).  1980  80  A l l u n i v e r s i t i e s , colleges, school d i s t r i c t adult education and recreation commissions w i l l co-ordinate t h e i r a c t i v i t i e s to avoid overlap of services.  1980  78  Vocational t r a i n i n g w i l l be provided at no cost to a l l those who are unemployed but employable.  1980  75  Community colleges w i l l have "branches" i n every community i n B.C. with a population of 10,000+.  1980  75  U n i v e r s i t i e s w i l l extend post graduate (university graduation) education through the province through a combination of: correspondence and t r a v e l l i n g professors who w i l l hold weekly weekend seminars i n less populated areas of B.C.  1980  75  50% of schools (elem. and sec.) w i l l encourage community parti c i p a t i o n i n both formal and informal programs a f t e r school, i n evenings and on weekends.  1980  70  The "open" u n i v e r s i t y concept w i l l be implemented i n order to reach more non resident students at less cost.  1980  50  61 Table 2  (continued)  P o t e n t i a l Event  17*  18.  19.  20.  21.  22.  23.  24.  Projected Year  Likelihood of Occurrence by 1984 ( i n %)  Community schools w i l l develop under the administration of the public school system with adult education personnel,  1984  60%  In-service adult education teaching techniques w i l l be provided f o r a l l educators i n community colleges teaching adults.  1984  60  A l l employers who need r e t r a i n i n g to carry on the jobs w i l l be paid by t h e i r employers at the same wage l e v e l during the r e - t r a i n i n g period.  1984  60  U n i v e r s i t i e s (or colleges) instructors w i l l t r a v e l (based on educational needs of i n d i vidual communities) rather than students.  1984  60  Most employers w i l l find value i n adult education as a management t o o l .  1984  60  S p e c i f i c on the job programs w i l l be developed to a l l e v i a t e boredom i n tedious or r e p e t i t i o u s i n dustry or factory jobs.  1984  55  Community colleges and industry w i l l share personnel i n order that colleges can provide job t r a i n i n g f a c i l i t i e s and programs suitable f o r changing employment needs i n industry.  1984  50  1984  50  There w i l l be a 30% increase i n enrolment i n the 30 to 44 year age group i n adult education public night school programs (beyond the increase t i e d to population).  62 SPECIFIC TRENDS The responses of the panelists indicated seven basic clusters of trends that occurred repeatedly throughout the study. I.  Technical and vocational concerns. The panel has c l e a r l y indicated that those matters  which r e l a t e to technical and vocational issues are of top priority.  The panel sees the primary need as that of expan-  sion of available t r a i n i n g f a c i l i t i e s to meet projected larger enrolments i n both day and night technical and vocat i o n a l programs.  One hundred percent agreement was reached  that the prime factor influencing increased enrolments was that technological change w i l l demand more s p e c i f i c t r a i n i n g . Eighty-eight percent agreement was reached that industry w i l l become more automated, therefore t r a i n i n g w i l l be e s s e n t i a l to keep pace.  Ninety-one percent agreement was reached that  s p e c i a l i z a t i o n w i l l lead many to upgrade f o r employability. Ninety percent of the panel also agreed that as f a c i l i t i e s grow ( p a r t i c u l a r l y i n smaller districts) so w i l l enrolment, while an eighty-seven  percent agreement was reached that  demand would increase f o r vocational, t e c h n i c a l , and career programs.  A seventy-two percent agreement was also reached  on the necessity f o r upgrading on a part-time  basis.  A secondary issue projected by the panel under t h i s heading was the co-operation necessary between industry, unions and t r a i n i n g f a c i l i t i e s .  Ninety-two percent agreement  63 was reached on the prime factor that job incentives w i l l encourage educational upgrading, while eighty-eight percent agreement was reached that there w i l l be more demand f o r adult education classes as most employers w i l l f i n d value i n continuing education as a management t o o l .  Eighty-two percent of  the panel agreed that employers w i l l arrange f o r s p e c i f i c courses f o r t h e i r s t a f f s , to be offered by night schools whereever possible. With regard to r e - t r a i n i n g while continuing to be employed, the panel reached a ninety-four percent agreement that t h i s on-the-job r e - t r a i n i n g w i l l create a need f o r additional t r a i n i n g programs i n a l l areas.  Seventy-five  percent agreement was reached that technology should be accepted and that unions must recognize, co-operate i n and encourage r e - t r a i n i n g .  Seventy-five percent agreement was  also reached on the necessity f o r more upgrading on-the-job on company time, both i n the public and private sectors of adult education. II.  Co-ordination of adult education services. This was considered to be the second most important  area for the future of adult education and also one of the v  e a r l i e s t possible p o t e n t i a l events to occur with a projected date of 1977 f o r the co-ordination of adult education services at the regional and l o c a l l e v e l i n s t i t u t e d under the auspices of the Department of Education, and the median estimated e f f e c t on adult education was considered to be great.  64 Seventy percent agreed that t h i s p o t e n t i a l event would r e s u l t i n long needed d i r e c t i o n from one authority, seventyeight percent agreed that t h i s would create channels which had not been available to administrators up to t h i s point, and seventy-eight percent also agreed t h i s would provide information, a s s i s t i n programs and avoid overlap.  Seventy-  six percent agreement was reached that t h i s appointment would r e s u l t i n d i r e c t i o n , funding and development to the whole adult education movement.  Eighty-three percent agreement was  reached that t h i s would also create, through more f i n a n c i a l support, better courses, trained instructors and increased enrolments. Through the co-ordination of adult education a c t i v i t i e s by u n i v e r s i t i e s , colleges, school boards and recreation commissions, the panel reached seventy-two percent agreement that t h i s p o t e n t i a l event would mean better community service, and seventy percent agreement that t h i s would r e s u l t i n more e f f i c i e n t use of community resources. That a c o n f l i c t about who i s to administer what parti c u l a r services should the projected co-ordination not occur was evident i n the panel's consideration of other projected potential events. The panel considered, f o r example, that with a projected increase i n the number of administrators, the expansion of r e s p o n s i b i l i t y from adult education would include coordination of community schools.  At the same time the panel  f e l t that with the number of school d i s t r i c t s o f f e r i n g adult  65 education programs remaining stable, community colleges would increasingly administer more of the adult education programs. Should, as projected, f i f t y percent of schools encourage community p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n both formal and informal programs beyond t r a d i t i o n a l school hours, the panel reached  seventy  percent agreement that adult educators might be required to get more involved i n and a s s i s t with the co-ordination. Another projected event, that a l l adult education a c t i v i t i e s would be a shared r e s p o n s i b i l i t y between public night schools and community colleges, caused the panel to reach a seventy percent agreement that school boards would supply f a c i l i t i e s while colleges would co-ordinate adult education. I f , as projected, community schools develop under the administration of the public school system with adult education personnel, then the panel reached ninety-four percent agreement that the onus would be on the d i s t r i c t to co-ordinate t h i s type of continuing education. III.  The changing status of adult education. As might be expected i n a study r e l a t i n g to the  future of adult education over the next decade, there appeared a constant and pervasive b e l i e f i n and acknowledgement of not only the acceptance of adult education as an i n t r i n s i c part of the educational system i n B r i t i s h Columbia, but also the growing need f o r trained adult education personnel, both teachers and administrators.  66 An anticipated need f o r 2,500 a d d i t i o n a l night school instructors by 1984  c i t e d by the panel plus the projected  increase of adult education administrators were only two instances, while the p o t e n t i a l event of free neighbourhood counselling services led to an eighty-eight percent agreement that administrators, counsellors and teachers would be needed i n greater numbers. sensus was reached  In addition, a seventy-five percent  con-  that more administrative assistants would  be needed. Included with the p o t e n t i a l event of the appointment of a f u l l time night school d i r e c t o r i n each school d i s t r i c t was  an eighty-two percent agreement that there would be more  people involved with adult education,  and i m p l i c i t i n the  projected increase i n the 35-44 age group of 143,000 was increased number of adults who  an  might be p a r t i c i p a n t s .  The panel also reached eighty-one percent  consensus  on the concept that increased l e i s u r e time would allow adults to learn f o r i n t e r e s t rather than income s e c u r i t y , with a panel consensus of seventy-eight  percent that there would be  a need f o r more academic adult education courses when i n t e r e s t increases among older groups. sensus of eighty-three percent  Another high con-  i n connection with the p o t e n t i a l  event of a portion of curriculum from K to 12 being devoted to l i f e l o n g learning was  that more people w i l l return to school  for continuous learning a c t i v i t i e s ; and there was  a seventy-  seven percent agreement on increased i n t e r e s t and p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n adult education i f free counselling services were r e a d i l y  67 available. There was a seventy percent panel agreement that i f schools expanded t h e i r a v a i l a b i l i t y , t h i s would constitute an active encouragement of adult education and would not only create new interest and approval but would also increase actual enrolments  greatly.  Although not i n t o t a l agreement, nor r e f e r r i n g to i t as a high p r i o r i t y item, the need f o r personnel trained i n the techniques of teaching adults was mentioned several times. The panel's estimated increase i n enrolment i n The University of B r i t i s h Columbia's Department of Adult Education was one example f o r which the panel reached eighty percent consensus that many more would enter the f i e l d as adult education gained recognition and the number of course offerings increased. The need f o r trained personnel was mentioned e a r l i e r and received eighty-three percent agreement, while the p o t e n t i a l event that in-service t r a i n i n g about teaching techniques would be provided f o r community college instructors provoked an eighty-one percent panel agreement that t h i s was the i d e a l f o r adult education public school instructors as well.  The predicted event, with seventy-five percent panel  consensus would improve the quality of course content and presentation, no doubt increasing public i n t e r e s t i n adult education effectiveness.  68 IV.  De-centralization and the trend i n the projected roles of the u n i v e r s i t y and community colleges. Because the panel reached ninety percent agreement  that s h i f t s i n the d i s t r i b u t i o n of population would result i n suburban or r u r a l - r e s i d e n t i a l l i v i n g with urban work, de-centralization of i n s t i t u t i o n s f o r higher education and continuing education was a l o g i c a l implication. As a r e s u l t of the p o t e n t i a l de-centralization, the panel saw u n i v e r s i t i e s and colleges as assuming more diverse roles i n the future.  A seventy-two percent agreement was  reached on the trend that there would be less emphasis on expansion and buildings at u n i v e r s i t i e s , and more emphasis on "recycling" of present f a c i l i t i e s .  The panel also reached  a seventy-five percent agreement that the u n i v e r s i t i e s have l o s t t h e i r appeal to the young, and achieved eighty-three percent consensus about the need f o r u n i v e r s i t i e s to expand to include t o t a l coverage of the province.  There was an eighty-  three percent agreement that as a result of u n i v e r s i t i e s expanding post graduate education throughout the province, they would develop t h e i r extension d i v i s i o n s .  The p o t e n t i a l  event that u n i v e r s i t y or college instructors rather than students would t r a v e l also resulted i n a ninety-four percent panel agreement on extensive growth of the extension or continuing studies departments. The projection f o r community colleges was foreseen by the panel as that of having branches i n every community i n B r i t i s h Columbia with a population of 10,000 or more, with a  69 seventy-eight  percent agreement that the adult  education  services of the college would he expanded. With the projected increased enrolments i n non u n i v e r s i t y t e c h n i c a l or terminal career programs, the panel achieved  seventy-two percent  agreement that community colleges  would continue t h e i r r o l e of o f f e r i n g preparation f o r advanced u n i v e r s i t y t r a i n i n g , and one hundred percent panel agreement that the creation of more new colleges would provide  greater  academic opportunities. With the projected smaller increase of funds to u n i v e r s i t i e s , the panel foresaw, with seventy-two percent agreement, that community colleges would receive larger amounts of p r o v i n c i a l funding f o r post-secondary V,  education.  The emergence of larger numbers of women into the employment f i e l d . From a t o t a l spectrum of points f o r discussion, con-  sideration, and evaluation, the changing r o l e of women was the subject f o r the l i v e l i e s t debate, with a marked tendency for wholehearted consensus. With a projected increase i n the labor force, the panel achieved  100% agreement that t h i s was caused i n part by a  larger proportion of working women. The greater percentage of employed females predicted received panel agreement of eighty-one percent  that the number  of females employed would more c l o s e l y approach the number available to work; ninety-three percent  agreement that there  70 would be a greater acceptance of females working i n industry; one hundred percent agreement that t h i s would be the r e s u l t of a desire f o r s e l f f u l f i l l m e n t outside the home; and seventy percent agreement that t h i s would be the r e s u l t of concerted e f f o r t s of status of women groups. That r e - t r a i n i n g would be obviated by t h i s increased percentage of employed women was r e f l e c t e d i n the projected event that f i f t y percent of families would be supported by both husband and wife, i n which the panel reached ninety-four percent agreement that t h i s event would necessitate more t r a i n i n g programs f o r wives going to work.  The panel also  achieved seventy-one percent agreement that t h i s event would obviate a tremendous need f o r upgrading and r e - t r a i n i n g of women with f a m i l i e s . With the p o t e n t i a l event that p r o v i n c i a l l y operated day care and drop i n centres were available, the panel reached seventy-three percent agreement that t h i s would free women to work, thereby increasing the potential of these women. The panel also agreed, with ninety-four percent consensus, that t h i s would allow women to pursue part-time or f u l l - t i m e t r a i n i n g , and an eighty-eight percent agreement that t h i s would necessitate more daytime adult education offerings. With the p o t e n t i a l event that vocational t r a i n i n g w i l l be provided at no cost, the panel reached an eightyeight percent agreement that t h i s would r e s u l t i n more r e t r a i n i n g of women. The panel agreed that not only would the status of  71  women be affected by increased and co-ordinated day care f a c i l i t i e s , but so would the t o t a l employment p i c t u r e .  These  events would, i n turn, a f f e c t adult education both d i r e c t l y and i n d i r e c t l y .  An example of t h i s was seen i n the projected  increased labor force which eighty-six percent of the panel agreed would r e s u l t from improved day care f a c i l i t i e s . VI.  Expansion of use of a l l public school f a c i l i t i e s including the community school concept. The panel agreed with a seventy percent consensus  that t h i s active encouragement of community use of school f a c i l i t i e s would create new i n t e r e s t and approval.  They also  achieved eighty-two percent consensus on the concept that present trends pointed to an extension of the school day and to a broadening of age groups served, while reaching a seventy percent consensus that the demand f o r courses beyond regular school hours would increase as the t r a d i t i o n a l nine to three approach was extended.  Should the community school concept  develop, the panel reached a seventy-seven percent consensus that t h i s would result i n greater community involvement with schools and programs. VII.  Types of adult education courses anticipated. The primary type of program that the panel foresaw  was that of up-grading and r e - t r a i n i n g .  Panel agreement of  ninety-one percent was achieved on the issue that job incentives w i l l encourage educational upgrading, while ninety-four percent consensus was reached on the need f o r continuous rather  72 than "once-in-a-lifetime" t r a i n i n g , and a need f o r additional t r a i n i n g programs i n a l l areas i f employees needed r e - t r a i n i n g received a seventy-five percent agreement.  The panel also  agreed that there would he a greater demand f o r recreational as well as upgrading programs. GOALS FOR ADULT EDUCATION A published report from the Educational P o l i c y Research Centre states that "the future environments we w i l l a c t u a l l y encounter w i l l include the r e s u l t s of the actions of present men, pursuing what they believe to be worthwhile  goals." (16:13)  The Delphi method has been c r i t i c i z e d because i t "holds society as a constant" (which i t i s obviously not) with a subsequent lack of "goal orientation" i n which no e f f o r t i s made to " i d e n t i f y the supporting events desirable to make these goals achievable." (5:33) A deliberate attempt was made here to address t h i s problem r e l a t i v e to adult education i n the coming decade as delineated i n t h i s study.  This section therefore combines  "the actions of present men" (the co-operation of the panel i n predicting trends) with the i d e n t i f i c a t i o n of the possible implication of those trends.  These trends and t h e i r i m p l i -  cations w i l l thus be correlated into "worthwhile goals" f o r adult education i n B r i t i s h Columbia; together with possible or projected "supporting events" through which these goals might be achieved.  73 Goal One:  The expansion of technical and vocational f a c i l i t i e s to include coverage comprehensive to the entire p r o v i n c i a l population.  The supporting events through which t h i s goal may  be  achieved are:.1.  A considerably higher allotment of funds f o r specialized t r a i n i n g equipment, upgraded texts, and other materials.  2.  Increased co-operation between employers and t r a i n i n g institutions•  3.  The h i r i n g , by either the i n s t i t u t i o n or the employer, of specialized personnel, p a r t i c u l a r l y those trained i n adult education, to implement t h i s l i a i s o n or to act as consultants.  4-.  A greater co-operation by the federal government i n supporting or expanding f a c i l i t i e s , for example, t h e i r Manpower supported programs.  5.  The provision for extended use (on a 24- hour day basis) of a l l e x i s t i n g f a c i l i t i e s .  6.  E i t h e r an expansion of l o c a l f a c i l i t i e s f o r more i s o l a t e d parts of the province or the provision f o r accommodation adequate to student needs near present facilities.  7.  A stringent and practicable scheme f o r assessing employment needs within the province i n order to more c l o s e l y a l i g n t r a i n i n g opportunities with job placement.  8.  The development within less urbanized areas of the province through adult education services of suff i c i e n t l y a t t r a c t i v e community resources to encourage students to either t r a i n there, or a f t e r t r a i n i n g to leave the Lower Mainland and u t i l i z e t h e i r t r a i n i n g i n these more r u r a l areas thus contributing to further p o t e n t i a l growth and development of those areas.  74 Goal Two:  The  The co-ordination of adult education services to cover a l l those services provided through the Department of Education. supporting  events through which t h i s goal may  be  achieved are: 1.  An Associate or Assistant Deputy Minister be appointed whose sole area of concern would be adult education services.  2.  The appointment of p r o v i n c i a l personnel s u f f i c i e n t to co-ordinate these services at the l o c a l , regional and provincial level.  3.  The employment of trained adult education counsellors to provide free day and evening adult counselling services regarding educational upgrading. This service would be provided within a close commuting distance (not i n excess of three miles) i n larger communities and centralized i n more scattered population areas.  4.  The appointment of s u f f i c i e n t adult education personnel trained s p e c i f i c a l l y i n public r e l a t i o n s to act as l i a i s o n o f f i c e r s between a l l public schools (administrative, teaching and j a n i t o r i a l s t a f f ) and adult education services i n order to maximize the e f f i c i e n c y of these e x i s t i n g f a c i l i t i e s .  5.  The h i r i n g of trained adult educators to a s s i s t i n the development of para professional t r a i n i n g programs, through a team approach of professional groups, licencing authorities and t r a i n i n g centers.  Goal Three:  The  The t r a i n i n g of a l l adult educators i n the methods, techniques, and objectives of adult education.  supporting  events through which t h i s goal may  be  achieved are: 1.  The requirement of a professional diploma or c e r t i f i cation i n the f i e l d of adult or higher education f o r a l l f u l l time adult education personnel.  2.  The minimum course requirement of at least one adult education methods course for a l l student teachers.  75 Goal Three (continued) 3.  The co-ordination by The University of B r i t i s h Columbia's Department of Adult Education throughout the province of workshops and seminars f o r a l l instructors of adults i n u n i v e r s i t i e s , colleges and public night schools.  Goal Four:  The recognition of and adjustment to the changing roles of B r i t i s h Columbia's community colleges and u n i v e r s i t i e s by adult educators.  The supporting events through which t h i s goal may be achieved are: 1.  The restructuring of the public image of the u n i v e r s i t y through the expansion of i t s extension or continuing education d i v i s i o n s .  2.  The extension o f more degrees at both the undergraduate and graduate l e v e l on a part time b a s i s .  5.  The l i m i t i n g of a l l u n i v e r s i t i e s ' programs to areas of professional t r a i n i n g only, thus eliminating, f o r example, the general B.A. degree.  4.  The encouragement or the s p e c i f i c h i r i n g of q u a l i f i e d personnel to t r a v e l between campuses and throughout the province i n order to disseminate education at both undergraduate and graduate l e v e l s .  5.  The development of community colleges p r i m a r i l y f o r u n i v e r s i t y transfer roles through t h e i r expansion to four year colleges.  6. The implementation through the medium of a p r o v i n c i a l l y operated t e l e v i s i o n or radio channel, an "open" u n i v e r s i t y or "open" college concepts Goal Five:  The recognition of and subsequent adjustment to the changing role of women i n the labor force.  The supporting events through which t h i s goal may be achieved are: 1.  The development of more extensive pre-employment programs such as the Canada Manpower Employment Opportunities f o r Women.  76 Goal Five  (continued)  2.  The implementation into the K - 12 school program of courses s p e c i f i c a l l y designed to prepare g i r l s f o r t h e i r projected r o l e s as employees rather than or as well as homemakers.  3.  The operation of day care centres (under 6) and drop i n centres (6 to 12+) under one co-ordinating p r o v i n c i a l body.  4.  The preparation f o r casual as well as f u l l time use of such day care f a c i l i t i e s .  Goal Six:  The expanded use of existing public school f a c i l i t i e s to embrace continuing education a c t i v i t i e s .  The supporting events through which t h i s goal may  be  achieved are: 1,  Changes i n the physical f a c i l i t i e s i n a l l schools from elementary to secondary to accommodate adults as well as children, f o r example, tables and chairs that would suit e i t h e r as opposed to small desks.  2.  A' r e v i s i o n of the K - 12 curriculum with an emphasis on l i f e l o n g learning,  3.  The negotiation of working conditions with CUPE employees to ensure union co-operation i n extended use of school f a c i l i t i e s .  4,  The i n s t i t u t i o n of a province wide community education public r e l a t i o n s program to describe the community school concept.  Goal Seven:  The recognition of the equality of the status of adult education with present public school education.  The supporting events through which t h i s goal may  be  achieved are: 1.  F i f t y - f i f t y cost sharing of public night school costs with the p r o v i n c i a l government,  2,  The establishment of a separate p r o v i n c i a l department of education.  77  Goal Seven (continued) 3.  The extensive preparation and dissemination of province wide public r e l a t i o n s to create public awareness of the ever increasing function and p r a c t i c a b i l i t y of continuing education a c t i v i t i e s to i n d i v i d u a l adults i n p a r t i c u l a r and to the p r o v i n c i a l economy i n general. I t i s apparent that the future of adult  education  l i e s p r i m a r i l y within two areas: f i r s t , the recognition of the equality of status with public school education;  and  second, the f i n a n c i a l support needed either f e d e r a l l y or p r o v i n c i a l l y to achieve the seven stated goals. CONCLUSIONS This Delphi study on the future of adult education i n B r i t i s h Columbia over the next decade to 1984-, took approximately one and one half years from i t s inception to completion. During that time many changes have taken place i n the f i e l d of adult education,  and already some of the predicted figures  are obsolete i n the l i g h t of new  statistics.  I t would appear however that the projected goals of the study have s t i l l not been f u l l y or even p a r t i a l l y attained. That at least two  of these goals are universal may be seen i n  the following examples from the Unesco Study, A Twenty One Point Programme f o r a Global Strategy i n Education, s p e c i f i c points are compared with two projected  when  goals.  Goal number one, the expansion of technical and vocational f a c i l i t i e s corresponds c l o s e l y with point number nine from the Unesco study which states: "Responsibility f o r  78 technical t r a i n i n g should not f a l l exclusively on the school system.  I t should be shared by schools, business, industry  and out-of-school education." (2:20-32) Goal number seven, the recognition of the equality of the status of adult education with present public school education, i s reiterated i n two separate points i n the Unesco study, namely that: "Lifelong education should be the keystone of a l l educational p o l i c i e s i n the years ahead, i n i n d u s t r i a l l y developed as well as developing countries" and, "Development of adult education, i n and out of school, should be a p r i o r i t y objective of educational strategies during the next ten years." (2:20-32) whatever the future of adult education may encompass or require, i t i s the present task of p o l i c y or decision makers i n adult education to take into account global as well as p r o v i n c i a l trends and to extrapolate them to-day i n order to deal e f f e c t i v e l y with them to-morrow.  This study therefore  comprises only a very minute contribution to that examination of and planning f o r the future of adult education i n B r i t i s h Columbia which can and must take place now. I t would appear that the concept of l i f e l o n g education as a process i n which every person w i l l be a c t i v e l y engaged throughout h i s l i f e t i m e must be accepted, then integrated into the educational structure of t h i s province.  This can  only be accomplished by the recognition that learning longer begins and ends at a specified age.  no  In a changing world  where the only constant i s change, people must be prepared to  79 continue to learn from t h e i r e a r l i e s t pre-school years to beyond retirement.  The future of adult education i n B r i t i s h  Columbia can be summarized i n a quotation from another Unesco publication: "Ve should no longer assiduously acquire knowledge once and f o r a l l , but learn how to b u i l d up a continually evolving body of knowledge a l l through l i f e . to be'." (8:74)  We must 'learn  80 REFERENCES CITED 1.  Adult Education i n B.C., Vancouver, Adult Education Research Centre, Faculty of Education, University of B r i t i s h Columbia, 1973.  2.  "A 21-Point Programme f o r a global strategy i n education," The Unesco Courier, Unesco, November 1972.  3.  Ayres, Robert V., Technological Forecasting and Long Range Planning, New York etc., McGraw-Hill Cook Co., 1967.  4.  Berghofer, D., "An Application of the Delphi Technique to Educational Planning," The Canadian Administrator, Volume X, No. 6, March 1971.  5.  Bemestein, G.B. and Cetron, N.J., "SEER : A Delphic Approach applied to Information Processing," Technological Forecasting, Volume 1, 1969-1970.  6.  Dalkey, Norman W., "Delphi," An Introduction to Technological Forecasting, ed. Martino, J . , London, Gordon & Breach S c i e n t i f i c Publishers, 1972.  7.  Enzer, S. et a l . , Prospects f o r S o c i a l Change by 1985 and Their Impact on Time/Money Budgets, Middletown, Institute f o r The Future, March, 1972.  8.  Faure, Edgar, et a l . , Learning to Be, Harrop, 1972.  9.  Jantsch, E r i c , Technological Planning & S o c i a l Futures. London, Cassell/Assoc. Business Programs, 19721  10.  London, Unesco-  Judd, R., "Use of Delphi Methods i n Higher Education," Technological Forecasting and S o c i a l Changes, Volume 4, 1972.  11.  Jungk, Robert, "Breakthrough to Tomorrow," Courier, Unesco, A p r i l , 1971.  12.  Lanford, H.W., Technological Forecasting Methodologies, American Management Association, 1972.  13.  Martino, Joseph, "The Consistency of Delphi Forecasts," The F u t u r i s t , A p r i l , 1967.  14.  Unesco  , Technological Forecasting f o r Decisionmaking, New York, American Elseview Publishing Company Incorporated, 1972.  81 15.  Ontario Educational Communication Authority, Research and Development Branch, Learning f o r Change, Project No. 36, September 1973.  16.  Sandow, Stuart, "Educational P o l i c y Formation. Planning with the Focus Delphi and the Cross Purpose Notion," EPRC, February 1972.  17.  Selman, Gordon R., "A Chronology of Adult Education i n B r i t i s h Columbia Before 1914," The Journal of Education, Volume 18, Winter 1971.  18.  Toffler, Alvin,  19.  Turoff, M., "Delphi + Computers + Communication • ?," Industrial Applications of Technological Forecasting, ed. Cetron, M. and Ralph, C , New York, Wiley Interscience, 1971.  20.  Wales, B.E., "The Development of Adult Education," The Journal of Education, Volume 10.  21.  Weaver, Timothy W.., "The Delphi Forecasting Method," Phi Delta Kappan, January 1 9 7 L  22.  Wood, William E., "A Delphi Study Assessing Occupational Education's Needs," (unpublished Doctor's d i s s e r t a t i o n , University of Massachusetts, 1973).  1970.  Future Shock,  New  York, Boston Books,  82 SOURCE OF STATISTICAL INDICATORS Indicator One - B.C. Facts and S t a t i s t i c s , Volumes 1961 to 1971, Department of I n d u s t r i a l Development, Trade and Commerce, Economics and S t a t i s t i c s Branch, Parliament Buildings, V i c t o r i a , B.C, Indicator Two - Census of Canada 1971* S t a t i s t i c s Canada, Volume One - Part Two, Catalogue 92-715, Table 7^2, A p r i l , 1973. Indicator Three - B.C. Facts and S t a t i s t i c s , Volumes 1961 to 1971, Department of I n d u s t r i a l Development, Trade and Commerce, Economics and S t a t i s t i c s Branch, Parliament Buildings, V i c t o r i a , B.C. Indicator Four - Census of Canada 1971« Volume One, Part One. Catalogue 92-708, B u l l e t i n One, A p r i l , 1973. Indicators Five, S i x and Seven -Department of Education of the Province of B r i t i s h Columbia, Annual Reports from 1961 to 1971, by the Honorable the Minister of Education, P r i n t e r to the Queen's Most Excellent Majesty i n right of the Province of B r i t i s h Columbia. Indicators Eight, Nine, Ten, Eleven and Twelve - A Century of Education i n B r i t i s h Columbia: S t a t i s t i c a l Perspectives, 18ff1-197"n S t a t i s t i c s Canada, Education D i v i s i o n , Published by Authority of The Minister of Industry, Trade and Commerce, December, 1971• Indicator Thirteen - Pioneering a Profession i n Canada, Vancouver, Adult Education Research Center, Faculty of Education, University of B r i t i s h Columbia, 1972.  APPENDIX A  •-  L e t t e r requesting p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n study.  APPENDIX B  L e t t e r o u t l i n i n g procedure. Sample page. Questionnaire one.  86 APPENDIX B  Adult Education Research Centre January 9, 1974,  Dear Thank you f o r your very prompt response to my l e t t e r of Dec. 10, 1973.  Please f i n d enclosed the forecasting questionnaire which I described i n that l e t t e r . I t consists of t h i r t e e n pages, each of which deals with one s t a t i s t i c a l i n d i c a t o r . Of the t h i r t e e n i n d i c a t o r s chosen, four are from the area of economics; the remaining nine r e f l e c t trends i n education which appear to bear d i r e c t l y on adult education. The f i r s t page i s a sample of the format of the questionnaire. This questionnaire represents the f i r s t of three questionnaires. Data correlated and organized from your responses to t h i s questionnaire w i l l form the basis f o r the second questionnaire. Please f e e l free to use your imagination which w i l l r e s u l t i n a considerable broadening of the scope of the study. In making your p r e d i c t i o n s , however, consider what you think w i l l a c t u a l l y happen rather than what you hope would happen under i d e a l conditions. The only assumption you are asked to make i s that the world w i l l avoid a large scale holocaust or d i s a s t e r from either natural or man made causes. I appreciate your contribution to t h i s study both i n terms of time and expertise and w i l l anticipate r e c e i v i n g your response at your e a r l i e s t convenience. Yours t r u l y ,  In t h i s a n d b « , . t q s t ! onr.a i ,.j b, asked o , v , l u t , change, in future o f ad'ult ^ I the province of B . C . , f r « , t ; ^ i" presents b e l o w be o f v a l u e t o y , in a s s  u  s  U  r  u c  i  h  P  s  s  y  o  u  0  C  a  f  ^i'<lV n ; J  u  ? S ? .nd,cator s  ,  t  will  u  d  be  if  ° assist  e  f  u  c  ^ « ? you , ;  h  c  the answer  Please  h  t  h  r  !  <  o  in determining  to  eilhc:  the trend  f  f  e s t i ^ ' t i n g ^ i * > t  such  l  u  p  t  line(s)  to  « »»SS«t an a l t e r a t i v e i n d i c a t o r below (and a s o u r c e of the r e q u i r e d d a t a , i f you know o f o n e ) , , r on t o t h e n e x t i n d i c a t o r . ' ?  l  c  s  e  go B  c v  chafes?  | i f the answer t o both quest iens is  is Y E S  extend  O r win. i  6  n  important  question  1.  s  U  e  I57O 1  K Hi./  I534  2.  L i s t e d b c l o v a r e p o s s i b l e d e v e l o p m e n t s w h i c h may b e r e l a t e d to future changes in this i n d i c a t o r . Please check those w h . c n y o u f e e l w i l l be i m p o r t a n t t o c h a n e s i n the future o f a d u . t e d u c a t i o n b y \<-Ki, a n d a d d o t h e r s w h i c h o c c u r t o you i n making y o u r ei.ti.7ate. 3  r  "L<  M  l  ,  1 1  T T i  yidults w i l l spend [vocational training  [—r-r-i-f-f—  J  5 ^  ^  i-'Tf'i  . . . nfrvr;~  ;  r i T I T f i i f  :y$t|-i.E |;ii:E;t±r:H i:  TTT*i  T  Kii^jTij  l'i"t"l"t T  .'.lore m o n e y on u p g r a d i n g  their  A d u l t s w i l l s p e n d m o r e m o n e y on r c c r e a i i c n a 1 for cxa.Tipit, s k i i n g , c u r l i n g , bowling, e t c . Adults will as going t o  academic  activities  s p e n d m o r e m o n e y on p a s s i v e l e i s u r e t h e t h e a t r e , v i s i t i n g museums, e t c .  time  or  as  activities  M  X  Vfffi"  <i ^p.L-L . 1. 4/  v/  v  i  -  t  <;  Y<2  3-  What i s y o u r subject?  level  Expert Quite  of  familiarity wit h  Ca s u a 1 familiar  J  this  ^3"  Unfaoiiiac  00  In this and subsequent questlonnaIres you will be asked to evaluate changes | t h e future of adult education I n the province of B.C. Will a forecast of the indicator presrnted below be of value to you in assessing t h e •agnilude of such changes? Or will estimating this indicator assist y in thinking of future events which will be important in determining such changes? n  Please  s u g g e s t an a l t e r n a t i v e I n d i c a t o r b e l o w ( a n d a s o u r c e ,f t h , r e q u i r e d d a t a , I f you know o f o n e ) , , r on t o t h e next i n d i c a t o r .  '" go B  0u  |"lf the answer to either] quest ion is YES  If the answer to -\ [both questions la My  1. Please extend the trend line(s) to INOKATCR  QN£j INCRGASE IN U30R  I376 4  1J84  FORC.F.  2.  Listed below are possible developments which may be related to future changes In this indicator. Pl.sse check those which you feel will be important to changes in the future of adult education by 1J84, and add others which occur to you in making your estimate.  . b o a r d i n g f a c i l i t i e s o n o r n e a r t h e campus w i l l every v o c a t i o n a l t r a l n i r y I n s t i t u t i o n  be p r o v i d e d  for  . a p r e r e q u i s i t e t o a l l employment w i l l be c l a u s e s w r i t t e n i n t o • a l l w o r k i n g a g r e e m e n t s t h a t u p g r a d i n g o r r e t r a i n i n g w i l l be o f f e r - e d t o a l l t h o s e whose p o s i t i e n s a r e p h a s e d o u t t h r o u g h t e c h n o l o g i c a l progress vocational training w i l l who a r e u n e m p l o y e d  be p r o v i d e d a t  no c o s t  to a l l  those  3. What is your level of familiarity wit h this subject? l^uite familiar  f~~]  Ca sua 1 Unfara i liar 00 00  )  INDICATOR  TWO;  In  this  to  evaluate  the  and  ••agnitude indicator wiii  be  subsequent  questionnaires the  of  below of  Please  future  Will  be  value  of  a  such changes? you  important  I i the answer to q u e s t i o n i s YES • -7 1.  in  B.C.  assist  extend  INOICATC~TV0t  AGE GROUP DISTR I B U 7 i 0 N  IN  changes  province  presented  CHANGE  in  in  of  forecast to  you  Or  will  thinking  If  trend  of  be  a ked 5  education  the  estimating future  in  indicator the  O  this  events  P l e a s e suggest an a l t e r n a t i v e indicator s o u r c e of the r e q u i r e d d a t a , | f y on t o t h e n e x t Indicator. U  k  n  o  w  below (and a J , o  f  o n  }  r  *  which  such changes?  the  both  the  will  in a s s e s s i n g  of  determining  e i thcr|  you odult  answer to  questions  line(s)  to  IJ/o  is  4  NC  1J84  Listed to  C ; ^ F _ 1 N _ A T . F rtH?.iipnir, ip777-|77p K  which of you  below  future you  adult in  _ average  are  possible  changes feci  will  education  making num b e r  in  your of  this be  by  developments Indicator.  important 1J84,  to  which Please  changes  and add o t h e r s  may  be  check in  the  which  related those future  occur  to  estimate. years  of  education w i l l  exceed  13  years  _ the p u b l j e s c h o o l system w i l l provide f r e e p o s t - s e c o n d a r y e d u c a t i o n f o r a n a d d i t i o n a l two y e a r s a f t e r h i g h s c h o o l complet icn . a p o r t i o n of the c u r r i c u l u m f o r a l l b e d e v o t e d s p e c i f i c a l l y to l i f e l o n g end-goal oriented education  3.  What i s y o u r subject?  Expert Quite  faaillar  level  Q "  of  farailisrity  Ca sua 1 j  ]  Unfamiliar  wit  h  this  c h i l d r e n f r o m K to 12 will l e a r n i n g , a s o p p o s e d to  In t h i s and subsequent q u e s t i o n n a i r e s you w i U be asked to evaluate changes in the f u t u r e of a d u l t e d u c a t i o n in the province of B.C. W i l l a f o r e c a s t of the i n d i c a t o r presented below be of value to you in a s s e s s i n g t h , « a g n , l u d e of such changes? Or w i l l e s t i m a t i n g t h i s i n d i c a t o r a s s i s t you in t h i n k i n g of f u t u r e events which w i i l be important in d e t e r m i n i n g such changes?  I f the answer to e i ther] question is YES  1.  If the answer to |both • quest ions is  Please extend the t r e n d l i n e ( s )  to I576 4  i  r  -N ti{.-/  138*  IN'OICATCR THRFF. INCREASE IN NUMBER OF FFMAI.FS EMPLOYFp ~  Please suggest an a l t e r n a t i v e I n d i c a t o r below (and a source of the r e q u i r e d d a t a , i f you know of one), go on to the next I n d i c a t o r .  L i s t e d below are p o s s i b l e developments which may be r e l a t e d to f u t u r e c h a n e s in t h i s i n d i c a t o r . Please check those which you f e e l w i l l be important to changes in the f u t u r e of a d u l t education by 1=84, and add others which occur to you in making your e s t i m a t e . 3  p r o v i n c i a l ) y operated c h i l d care c e n t r e s (under 6) and drop in e'entres (6 to 12) w i l l be provided l o c a l l y on a per c a p i t a basi  1  , seminars w i l l be o f f e r e d o n - t h e - j o b to working o r s i n g l e parentsj on t o p i c s s p e c i f i c to changing work r o l e s of mothers and f a t h e r , a l l t r a i n i n g i n s t i t u t i o n s as v o c a t i o n a l schools w i l l provide day c a r e f a c i l i t i e s on the premises  3. •  What is your l e v e l of subject?  Expert Quite f a a i l i a r  LZI  f a m i l i a r i t y wit h t h i s  C 4 S U L L  (  ]  Unfamiliar  EZT  In t h i s and subsequent q u e s t i o n n a i r e s you w i l l be asked to evaluate changes in the f u t u r e of a d u l t education in the province of B . C . W i l l a f o r e c a s t of the i n d i c a t o r presented below be of value to you in a s s e s s i n g the E a g m t u d e of such changes7 Or w i l l e s t i m a t i n g t h i s i n d i c a t o r a s s i s t you in t h i n k i n g of f u t u r e events which w i l l be important in determining such changes?  IT the answer to e i then! question is YES  1.  Please extend the trend  Please s u g e s t an a l t e r n a t i v e i n d i c a t o r below (and a source of the r e q u i r e d d a t a , if you know of o n e ) , ^r go on to the next i n d i c a t o r . ' * 3  If the answer to both questions is N l i n e ( s ) to I576 4 1554  INDICATOR FUIR:  SHIFT IN POPULATION FROM RURAL TO WBi'N.nRE&S . . . . O v e r 8 C i of B . C . ' s p o p u l a t i o n r e s i d e s i n organized communities ( i n c o r p o r a t e d m u n i c i p a l i t i e s ) , Graph r e p r e s e n t s a comparison between Vancouver ( o r g . co^'Tun.) and Rossland (unorgan. commun.) in terms of jrowth. , . . . _ , , , • 1r  r  2.  L i s t e d below are p o s s i b l e developments which may be r e l a t e d to future changes in t h i s I n d i c a t o r . Please check those which you f e e l w i l l be i m p o r t a n t . t o changes in the f u t u r e of a d u l t education by 1J84, and add others which o c c u r to you in making your e s t i m a t e .  A l l organiacd communities w i l l develop the community s c h o o l concept  t  _ A l l organized communities w i l l provide f r e e "neighbourhood" c o u n s e l l i n g s e r v i c e s f o r a l l a d u l t s who d e s i r e them regarding upgrading t h e i r education . A l l organized communities w i l l c o - o r d i n a t e and a d m i n i s t e r a l l a d u l t education s e r v i c e s w i t h i n t h e i r area  ew  UL.  ,  3.  rZe>oi> / a.r, c C _  What i s your l e v e l of f a m i l i a r i t y subject?  Expert Q Quit* f a o i l i a r  Casual Unfarajlisr  wit  h this  CZ3 1  f  In t h i s and subsequent q u e s t i o n n a i r e s you w i l l be asked U e v a U a t e changes in the f u t u r e of s d g l l e d u c a t i o n in t h . p r o v i n c e of B.C. W i l l a f o r e s t of the i n d i c a t o r presented below be of value to you in a s s e s s i n g t h eagn.tudc of i u c h changes? Or w i l l e s t i m a t i n g t h i s i n d i c a t o r a s s i s t you in t h i n k i n g f f u t u r e events which w l i i be important in d e t e r m i n i n g such changer.? 8  Please suggest an a l t e r a t i v e i n d i c a t o r below (and a source of the r e q u i r e d d a t a , i f i< j on to the next i n d i c a t o r . ' y  o  u  n o M  o  f  o  n  8  0  Ii the answer to either) question is YES  1. Please  !  TT t h »• answer to f\ both quest Jena is Hlj./  extend the t r e n d l i n e ( s )  to  I576  4  15s*  UUWAICP nV.E.» WLuJ!f_Jtti5 (KUC1CKS ,.|N JHF, WU ic  L i s t e d below a r e p o s s i b l e developments which may be r e l a t e d to future changes | t h i s i n d i c a t o r . Please check those which you f e d w i l l be important to charges in the f u t u r e of a d u l t education by 1JS4, and add others which occur to you in making your c e l l m a t e . n  . " m i n i " courses in a d u l t teaching techniques w i l l be mandatory f o r a l l new a d u l t education i n s t r u c t o r s , the Dept. of Ed. w i l l provide r e g i o n a l a d m i n i s t r a t i v e to c o - o r d i n a t * night s c h o o l « c t i v i t i « o  staff  . a f u l l t i n e night school d i r e c t o r in each s c h o o l d i s t r i c t o f f e r i n g night s c h o o l courses w i l l be appointed  3.  What is your l e v e l of subject?  Expert LZ7| Quite f a m i l i a r " " [  |  f a r a i l i a r i t y wit h t h i s  Unfsnii l i a r  In t h i s a n d s u b s e q u e n t q u e s t i o n n a i r e s y o u w i l l be a s k c i to e v a l u a t e changes i n the f u t u r e o f a d u l t e d u c a t i o n in the p r o v . n c e of B.C. W i l l a f o r e c a s t of the i n d i c a t o r p r e s e n t e d b e l o w be o f v a l u e t o you i n a s s e s s i n g t h e » a g n , t u d e of such changes? Or w i l l e s t i m a t i n g this i n d i c a t o r a s s i s t you i n t h i n k i n g o f f u t u r e e v e n t s w h i c h w i l l be i m p o r t a n t i n d e t e r m i n i n g s u c h c h a n g e s ?  I T T h e "answer fo~ei"the'ij q u e s t i o n i s YES  1.  Please  INDICATOR  extend SIX.  the  NO.  if  the answer  to  questions  is  both  trend  line(s)  to  OF ADMINISTRATORS  I576 4  IN  I  indicates  full  p\  1554  PUBLIC,  time a d m i n i s t r a t o r s  'nil n  P  1  4f  3fl13 -I-  "T  r-i-i  SEE  ;  !I  L p"!"Tt  •rm  u.  What i s y o u r aubiect?  j  64.  l e v e l of  Expert Quite  FR  4-  I !TTT  LLL 6'  T  rr 7/  u  7&  familiarity  Casual faoiliar  j  ]  which of you  below a r e  future you  adult  possible  changes  in  feci will education  in making  your  this be  by  developments indicator.  important  to  1 J 8 4 , and add  w h i c h may Please  changes others  be  check in  the  related those future  which o c c u r  to  estimate.  . a p r e r e q u i s i t e to a t t a i n i n g an a d m i n i t t r a t i v e pose in a d u l t e d u c a t i o n w i l l be a g r a d u a t e d e g r e e i n a d u l t e d u c a t i o n  Unfamiliar  wit  h  . c o - o r d i n a t i o n of a d u l t education s e r v i c e s at the r e g i o n a l a n d l o c a l l e v e l w i l l be i n s t i t u t e d u n d e r t h e a u s p i c e s o f t h e Dept. of E d u c a t i o n , a s e p a r a t e department of - a d u l t - e d u c a t ion w i l l a t the p r o v i n c i a l governmental l e v e l  IT  ,. .J.-:T L.L.1.1  r--TTi-'TTT  TI I i  3.  T g  " 7 * . *'{  Listed to  v  . T-  ' Ti  only.  M hn T O T  fi'T  fflT [J—t—  b  Nd/  uliiUI^.CllCi)L^PxRATJLOi^* •Graph  P l e a s e suggest an a l t e r n a t i v e i n d i c a t o r below (and a s o u r c e o f t h e r e q u i r e d d a t a , i f y o u know o f o n e ) , •sr c o on t o t h e n e x t i n d i c a t o r . '  this  czr  be  organized  INUICATOfi SEVfNi  NO. Or SCHOOL OISTHICTS OFF EHING PUBLIC NIGHT SCHOOL PROGRAMS  In t h i s and subsequent q u e s t i o n n a i r e s you w i l l be asked to e v a l u a t e changes in the f u t u r e of a d u l t e d u c a t i o n in the p r o v i n c e of B . C . W i l l a f o r e c a s t of the i n d i c a t o r p r e s e n t e d below be of v a l , to you in a s s e s s i n g the » a n , t u d e of such changes? Or wi 11 estimatjng t h i s i n d i c a t o r a s s i s t you in t h i n k i n g of f u t u r e events which w i l l be important in determining such changes? c  P  l  c  s  s  e  suggest an a l t e r n a t i v e  »on« T %K to the F  * / 5 " ! next i n d i c a t o r . h  ,  q  r  c  d  d  a  l  a  '  i n d i c a t o r below (and a i  f  X°  of o n , ) , . , r '  u  so s  3  If the answer to q u e s t i o n is YES  1.  eitherf  i f the a nswcr r to jK [both quest ion s is N Q - /  P l e a e extend the trend l i n e ( s ) 3  to I576 4 I534  [NOICATCR SFVFMi NO. OP SCHOOL DISTRICTS OFFS.R INGj • PUBLIC NIGHT SCHOOL PROGRAMS  L i s t e d below are p o s s i b l e developments which may be r e l a t e d to future changes in t h i s i n d i c a t o r . Please check those which you f e e l w i l l be important to changes in the f u t u r e of a d u l t e d u c a t i o n by 1J84, and add o t h e r s which occur to you in making your e s t i m a t e . , regional academic  community c o l l e g e s w i l l t a k e o v e r functions of present night school  _ public night schools courses only  will  offer general  vocational system  interest/non  and  vocational  _ p u b l i c s c h o o l s w i l l become c o m m u n i t y r e c r e a t i o n a l c e n t r e s t h e e v e n i n g s a v a i l a b l e f r e e f o r u s e t o a l l members o f t h e community  3.  What i s your l e v e l o f f a m i l i a r i t y subject?  Expert LZI (juite f a m i l i a r •  Casual Unfamiliar  wit  f  h this  [ ]  J  in  In t h i s and subsequent q u e s t i o n n a i r e s you w i l l be asked to e v a l u a t e changes in the f u t u r e of a d u l t e d u c a t i o n in the p r o v i n c e of B . C . W i l l a f o r e c a s t of the i n d i c a t o r p r e s e r v e d below be of v a l u e to you in a s s e s s i n g the " a g n . t u d c of such changes? Or w i l l e s t i m a t i n g t h i , i n d i c a t o r a s s i s t you in t h i n k i n g of f u t u r e events which w i l i be important in d e t e r m i n i n g such changes?  If the answer to q u e s t i o n is YES  1.  either)  P l e a s e extend the t r e n d  P l e a s e suggest an a l t e r n a t i v e i n d i c a t o r below (and a source of the r e q u i r e d d a t a , if. you know of o n e ) , , r on to the next i n d i c a t o r . '  go 8  i t t h e answer to both q u e s t i o n s Is  line(s)  to  I576 4  1984  INDICATOR F I G H T , ENROLMENTS IN POST-SECONDARY NON UNIVERSITY TFCMNICAL CR TFRMINA! "cARCFR PROGRAMS'"  L i s t e d below a r c p o s s i b l e developments which may be r e l a t e d to f u t u r e changes in t h i s i n d i c a t o r . Please check those which you f e e l w i l l be important to changes in the f u t u r e of a d u l t e d u c a t i o n by 1J84 , and add o t h e r s which o c c u r to you in making your e s t i m a t e . i n s t i t u t i o n s w i l l be e s t a b l i s h e d to o f f e r 'para p r o f e s s i o n a l * t r a i n i n g in a l l a r e a s of p r o f e s s i o n a l work, e . g . , law, medicine, teaching, engineering, etc. r e g i o n a l c o l l e g e s w i l l serve p r i m a r i l y as job institutions  training  ____ s p e c i f i c on the job programs w i l l be developed to a l l e v i a t e b oredoa i n t e d i o u s o r r e p e t i t i o u s i n d u s t r i a l or f a c t o r y jobs  3-  What i s your l e v e l of f a m i l i a r i t y subject?  Expert fJZJ Quite f a o i l i a r j  ]  Casual' Unfamiliar  wit  h this  CZH L"  \  INDICATOR N . N F , PART TIME ACADEMIC ( U N I V E P S m  TRACER)  In t h i s and subsequent q u e s t i o n n a i r e s vou w i l l be a,'„ d to e v a U a t e c h a n g e s - I n the f u t u r e of a d u l t e d u c a t i o n in the p r o v i n c e of B . C . W i l l a f o r e c a s t of the i n d i c a t o r presented below be of value to you In a s s e s s i n g the •agn.lude of such changes? Or w i l l e s t i m a t i n g t h i s i n d i c a t o r a s s i s t you in t h i n k i n g of f u t u r e events which . w i n Oe important in d e t e r m i n i n g such changes?  FNRfilMFWJ jN  R  E  O  t  C  N  A  >  . M,,  C  »  C  ,  e  If the answer to q u e s t i c n is YES  3 1.  eitherl  If the an swer both q u e s t i o n s  to is  Z  P l e a s e extend the trend  line(s)  j 2.  J I CAT QR N|,\'E, PART TIME ACADEMIC f UN I 7F»e. I TV TDflMOT'-n \ ENROLMENT ri.no. 77. RFft|. _.. ! — TRANSFER) IM CN AL COI.LFCFr;*~ h Includes B . C . I . T . , C a p i l a n : ; , C a r i b o o , Douglas, i M a l a s p m a , New C a l e d o n i a , Okanagon, S e l k i r k , Vancouver C i t y C o l l e g e . :  7  0 U  • - t g i e n a l c o l l e g e s w i l l o f f e r p r i m a r i l y b a s i c education f o r f o r high s c h o o l c o m p l e t i o n than u n i v e r s i t y t r a n s f e r c o u r s e s to part time students  3  . r e g i o n a l c o l l e g e s w i l l o f f e r p r i m a r i l y «».ini'» courses which w i l l serve a academic " b r i d g e s ' - between h i h s c h o o l and u n i v e r s i t i e s to part time studentsregional colleges w i l l o f f e r primarily courses to part time students  What is your l e v e l of subject?  Expert  Quite  [  familiar  1  [  ]  familiarity  Casual Unfa m i 1 i a r  wit  h this  3  L i s t e d belo'v a r e p o s s i b l e developments which nay be r e l a t e d to f u t u r e changes in t h i s i n d i c a t o r . P l e a s e check those which you f e e l w i l l be important to changes in the f u t u r e of a d u l t e d u c a t i o n by 1JS4, and add o t h e r s which o c c u r to you in making your e s t i m a t e .  s  3.  „  r  4>  to 1J7& 4 1°S4  h  F i e o s e suggest an a l t e r n a t i v e I n d i c a t o r below (and'a s o u r c e of the r e q u i r e d d a t a , | f y know of o r . - ) , , on to the next i n d i c a t o r . '  ! !  3  non c r e d i t  academic  }M-*L$iMm.  ANQ-VOCATIONAL RCIiflOIJ?  In t n , ar.d s u b s c u , n t que t i cr.n i r o , you „81J be asked 1? ' in the f u t u r e of a d u l t e d u c a t i o n in t h e p r o v . n c e of B . C . . W i l l a f o r e c a s t of the i n d i c a t o r p r e s e n t e d below be of » . U to you in » s i n q the M f j n . U - d e of such changes? Or w i l l est i ™ t ing" th i , indicator assist | t h i n k i n g of f u t u r e events which w i l i be important in d e t e r m i n i n g such changes? s  C  V  l  H  K  i  S  4  e  c  y  o  u  I the answer to Iboth quci-ticn.-i is  a  P l e a c extend the  ;  j-;-y|-|-r  ,  ;]-<•])  lino(s)  to  i^o  r.riiffps j,'-;r;-i H£iiY  Jncludes e:irolirent colleges  e. .  trend  3  l^IU£ij[£!H_r£N, ms^i  j \  s o u r c e of the r e q u i r e d d a t a , on to the next i n d i c a t o r .  i n d i c a t o r below ( a n d a if  you know of o n e ) , ,r g o 3  n  T f ~ £ h answer to ei thci q u e s t i o n is YES  1.  S S C 5  P l e a s e suggest an a l t e r n a t i v e  l r -;; j'!;-:  1J84  IflTECMfJJCAi.  ir. voc.-. t ioiv. 1 di v i  T;  i  3> L i s t e d below a r e p o s s i b l e developments which may be r e l a t e d to f u t u r e changes in t h i s i n d i c a t o r . P l e a s e check those Which y f i . j,, j , o u  c  c  w  i  l  l  b <  p  o  r  t  a  n  t  l ( >  e  h  a  n  g  c  s  n  t (  e  f  u  :  I? ! . i ; H j i m i x ] U-'-L"hj.n:i.LS:|:|:iiuid  , ^ t | employees w i l l r e c e i v e e d u c a t i o n a l allowances a s b e n e f i t s i n t h e i r occupations „ a l l employees w i l l r e c e i v e i n c e n t i v e bonuses based on e d u c a t i o n a l c r e d i t hours in upgrading t h e i r s k i l l s  JL  i i  i n  : _ j T T 3 " i Z f T T l J " i ~l H i I H i i i T r t r n T i rr°t-TT  Li_i f T  i i:  i T i i |  n T T T T T T T r r r r r r r r n H  7/  V  3.  f"?«  r t  ,  Quits f a a i l i a r  CH, [  7£  £ •=  What i s your l e v e l of subject?  familiarity  ,  Casual  |  Unfa.-3jlj  wit  h this  t=i 4 P  T  u  r  e  to  the D i p t , of E d . w i l l provide employees with f i v e y e a r s * i/ork experience with o p t i o n a l a d d i t i o n a l upgrading t r a i n i n g f r e e of cost  r-;-T-;.-]3„ H r r !  ii  t  o. a d u l t e d u c a t i o n by 1 5 8 4 , and add o t h e r s which o c c u r you in making your e s t i m a t e .  • >ns of  J  fringe  In t h i s and subsequent c«ucsi ionn* i r e s «Z-J •>., * k , d to e v a l u a t e c h a n t s i n the • • , ( , - » 7. * . the p r o v i n c e of d . C . W i l l a f o r e c a s t of the i n d i c a t o r presented below be of value to ysu ir. a — . , ^ ; . . u , e--.gn.lude of such changes? Or w i l l est ima t i r . A h ' » i n d i c a t o r a s s i s t you Jr. t h i n k i n g of f u t u r e events which w i l i be important in determining such changer.? a  n  pT the answer ito o q u e s t i o n is YE  either  .  1. P l e a s e extend INDICATOR E L E V E N ,  liPIMlli^."»  Includes U . B . C . , Notre Dame  i  the trend  I f the a nswer to 'both questions ia  lin ( ) e  s  UN (ygfjc <T I r e QprRAT I'I" A N1 (VP'YA'  "  r  ;  F\ Hi../  to 1J70 £ 1°S4  '  Siraan E r a s e r , U.of  P l c s s e s u r e s t i n a l i e r . v s i ive i n d i c a t o r below (and a source o. the r e q u i r e d d a t a , if. you know of o n e ) , , go on to t h * next i n d i c a t o r .  V i c t o r i a , and  L i s t e d below a r e p o s s i b l e dovelepraents which may be r e l a t e d to f u t u r e changes in t h i s i n d i c a t o r . Please check those which you f e e l w i l l be important to changes in the f u t u r e or a d u l t e d u c a t i o n by 1J34, and add others which o c c u r to you in making your e s t i m a t e . the "open u n i v e r s i t y " Concept w i l l be implemented in o r d e r r * s c h more non r e s i d e n t students at l e s s cost increased fee s t r u c t u r e w i l l r e s u l t a b l e to a f f o r d u n i v e r s i t y t r a i n i n g i n d u s t r y w i l l implement and u n i v e r s i t y campuses  Y£-rv  3.  faailiar  in fewer students b e i n g  finance training  programs  on  A  What i s your l e v e l of subject?  Quite  to  familiarity  wit h t h i ;  Ca.sua 1 UnfaiTii l i a r  00  \  l M l m i t r l J _ w £ L y § • FULL 7 iME C»i:OLaf;HT IH UNj VE-PS !1I £S i  In t h i s and subsequent q u e s t i o n n a i r e s you w i l l be asked to e v a l u a t e changes in the f u t u r e of a d u l t e d u c a t i o n in the P r o v i n c e of B.C. W i l l a f o r e c a s t of the i n d i c a t o r pres.-r.Ud below be of v a l u e to you in a s s e s s i n g the magnitude of such changes? Or w i l l e s t i m a t i n g t h i s i n d i c a t o r a s s . s l you in t h i n k i n g of f u t u r e events which w i l l be important in d e t e r m i n i n g such changes?  1'lt the answer to ei iherj question is YES  Please  i f the a n ; u » r [both q u e s t i o n s  extend the trend l i n e ( s )  to l J / G 4 1J04  »ZJ.U-J  11 » t  ' 'I'  i  ' J' •  f  v r 0  I I :T iT  Tjrr^hTrrr XT  z n z a n  44.  TIT  3.  What i s your l e v e l of subject?  Expert Quite f a m i l i a r  J [~J  s  c  y  faniliarity  Casual Unfaailtar  o  u  ,  s  L i i t c J below a r e p o s o i b l e di-velopments which may be r e l a t e d to f u t u r e changes in t h i s i n d i c a t o r . Please check those which you f e e l w i l l be important to changes in the f u t u r e Of a d u l t e d u c a t i o n by and add o t h e r s which occur to you in making your e s t i m a t e .  I3154,  degree programs  available  u n i v e r s i t i e s w i l l extend post graduate ( u n i v e r s i t y g r a d u a t i o n ) e d u c a t i o n throughout the p r o v i n c e through a combination o f t ( a ) correspondence and (b) t r a v e l l i n g p r o f e s s o r s who w i l l h o l d weekly, week end seminars i n I c e s populated areas of B.C.  1 1  J--| I  a  a l l u n i v e r s i t i e s w i l l r.'-ike a l l through part tii>e attandar.ee  3cU.  :  e  t  TTT  i qn  l  _ m ?sibcrs of p r o f e s s i o n a l o c c u p a t i o n s w i l l be r e q u i r e d through l e g i s l a t i o n to take " r e f r e s h e r " courses a n n u a l l y  4 4 - ! - i'i-  till  P  io io N  C A T OR T / F i y F . fJULLJLU-'FLliiiJI)! i_Ul! Si.. i n c l u d e s U . B . C . , S i ° o * f r a . c r , U. 0f ~ V i c 1 0 r T t T ^ d Notr* Came /  1K01  •  J  5"93est an a l t e r n a t i v e i n d i c a t o r below (and a s o u r c e of the r e q u i r e d d a t a , i f Wnow o f o n } p on to the next i n d i c a t o r . '  m  wit h  £"3  this  !." s«iT.c ueni qvcstio.v.aircs y . w i l l b« u-'.-oC to e v a l u t c changes in t i - f u t u r e of c'u ' ' -{..-• ' : - r, ' •> the province of B . C . W i l l « f o r c e s i o f " t h . - ' i r d i e ^ o presented below be of v a l u e to you jr, , , , the magnitude of such chanjes? Or w i l l est i*-U i n / t h i , i n d i c a t o r a s s i s t you in t h i n k i n g o f f u t u r e c v ^ U which « important in de t « r e i n ir,g such changes? t  h  i  l  4  n  d  H  n y  :  5  J  !  6  c  5  !  r  )  P l e a s e s u g g e s t tr. < . c r i - . ; v : v e i n d i c a t o r below (and a seurcs c f t h e r e q u l . w •cd w* <ii.U, i f you know of o n e ) , i r go on to the .next i n d i caaitoorr.. C  D  T t the answer to question is YE.'l  1. P l e a s e extend  eilhei  the trend  i f the answer io~~1\ both que: :• lefts is N Q . /  lino( ) 5  to  IJ'o  INDICATOR THIRTEEN, ENROLMENT IN U.B C «S DEPARTMENT OF AOULT EDUCATION* ' ' * Includes undergraduate and poet graduate  i  1$34  students  2.  L i s t e d b c l o u are p o s s i b l e developments which may be r e l a t e d to future changes in t h i s i n d i c a t o r . Please check those which you f e e l w i l l be important to changes in the f u t u r e of a d u l t education by 1J84, and add others which occur to you in making your e s t i m a t e . . a d u l t education i n s t r u c t o r s f o r a l l f u l l tima teaching p c i i t i o n a w i l l r e q u i r e Dept. of fed, c e r t i f i c a t i o n . a u n i v e r s i t y dept. in education w i l l be e s t a b l i s h e d whose sole f u n c t i o n w i l l be devoted to research in the, present and future s t a t u s of a d u l t education _ a d u l t educit ion w i l l r e c e i v e equal r e c o g n i t i o n in terns of f i n a n c i n g , c u r r i c u l u m , a d m i n i s t r a t i o n , e t c . . with p u b l i c s c h o o l «duca tSon  3.  What is your l e v e l of subject?  Expert guile f a o i l i a r  [_~]  familiarity  Casual Unfamiliar  wit  h ihlf  ]~T  O  O  101 APPENDIX C  L e t t e r o u t l i n i n g procedure. Two-page summary sheet (part one of questionnaire two). Sample page and part two of questionnaire two. Sample page and part three of questionnaire two.  —S1JAT-  ITEMS'  Per-  CANp|0ATiJ.IiJlS.  centage B o a r d i n g f a c i l i t i e s on o r every v o c a t i o n a l t r a i n i n g  near the in»titut  campus ion  wilt  be  provided  for •  A  prerequisitt  all  working  ofFired  to a l l  employment  agreements  to a l l  technological  those  that  whose  will  be  clauses  upgrading  or  retraining  positions  are  phased  written will  out  A prerequisite education w i l l  23.3  into  17.  be  through 18.  Average  numb e r  of  will  be  provided at  no c o s t  to a l l  those  years  of  education  will  exceed  13  years  1333  20. 333 21.  A p o r t i o n of the c u r r i c u l u m f o r a l l be d e v o t e d s p e c i f i c a l l y t o l i f e l o n g end-goal oriented education  c h i l d r e n f r o m K t o 12 w i l l l e a r n i n g , a s opposed t o  on All day  topics  be o f f e r e d o n - t h e - j o b  specific  to  changing  work  t  0 working  roles  t r a i n i n g i n s t i t u t i o n s as vocat t o n a l c a r e f a c i l i t i e s on t h e p r e m i s e s  A l l organized concept  A Separate provincial  communities  will  dev  elop  of  or  single  mothers  schools  will  and  30  22.  department of a d u l t governmental level  education  will  community  school  ourhood" regarding  "Mini'* courses in adult teaching techniquet f o r a l l new a d u l t e d . i n s t r u c t o r s  wi 11  boredom  The D e p t . o f E d . w i l l p r o v i d e r e g i o n a l a d m i n i s t r a t i v e ta co-ordinate night school a c t i v i t iaa A f u l l time n i g h t s c h o o l d i r e c t o r in each s c h o o l o f f e r i n g night school course* w i l l b e appointed  staff  40  district  50  will  t  26.  on t h e in  Community high ime  be  organized  30. 31.  become free  community  for  use  to  established of  will  job  general  at  The  to  Oept.  part of  Ed.  with  t  to  will  offer  on  offer than  as  reach  will  primarily  law,  to  or  basic  11  50  15  will  offer  primarily  provide  employees  additional  <3.3. et  = • 53-3  institutions  with  courses  training  receive educational allowances occupations  y concept  resident  will  students  at  be  based  implemented  less  cost.  li  4b.b  14  jobs  53-3  li  2b.6  8  43.3  13  13.3  5  10  3  23.3  7  53-3  AO  far to  part  academic  years*  5  13  alleviate  factory  non c r e d i t  upgrading  7  the  medicine,  education  transfer  in  community  students  optional  universit  more n o n  33  professional  e.g.  industrial  university  the  jobtraining  A l l employees w i l l r e c e i v e i n c e n t i v e bonuses c r e d i t hours in upgrading t h e i r skills The " o p e n "  22  vocational  centres  of  'para<  work,  be d e v e l o p e d  repetitious  will  ional  memb e r s  primarily  programs or  ime  A l l empliyees w i l l b e n e f i t s in t h e i r  73-3  academic  inxerest/n  recreat  all  professional  serve  completion  colleges  7  the  Community c o l l e g e s w i l l o f f e r p r i m a r i l y " m i n i " c o u r s e s w h i c h w i l l s e r v e as a c a d e m i c " b r i d g e s " between h i g h s c h o o l and u n i v e r s i t i e s to part time st udents Community  23.3  23.3  be  colleges  offer  and  no.  and Dept.  students  experience  23.  will  areas  tedious  school  courses  40 40  Institutions  Specific  28.  ory  will  available  24.  27.  a l l  be mandat  schools  colleges  53-3  A l l o r g a n i z e d communities w i l l c o - o r d i n a t e and a d m i n i s t e r a d u l t education s e r v i c e s wit h i n t h e i r a r e a  Public  Regional  25.  40  A l l organized communities w i l l p r o v i d e f r e e "n eighb c o u n s e l l i n g s e r v i c e s , f o r a l l a d u l t s who d e s i r e them upgrading t h e i r education  Public night schools Courses only  23.  60 the  c o l l e g e s w i l l take o v e r v o c a t i o n a l of present night s c h o o l system  in a l l  30  provido  Actua i  adult  a d u l t education s e r v i c e s at the r e g i o n a l b e i n s t i t u t e d under the a u s p i c e s of the  training  parentis fathers]  Community functions  evenings  50  P r o v i n c i a l l y o p e r a t e d c h i l d c a r e c e n t r e s ( u n d e r 6) a n d d r o p i n c e n t r e s ( b t o 12*) w i l l b e p r o v i d e d l o c a l l y on a p e r c a p i t a basis will  C o - o r d i n a t i o n of local level will of Educat ion  in  50  The p u b l i c s c h o o l s y s t e m w i l l p r o v i d e f r e e post-secondary e d u o t i o n f o r a n a d d i t i o n a l two y e a r s a f t e r h i g h s c h o o l completion  Seminars  to a t t a i n i n g an a d m i n i s t r a t i v e p o s t be a g r a d u a t e d e g r e e i n a d u l t e d .  7 0  progress  Vocational t raining who a r e u n e m p l o y e d  Percentage  as  on  work free  of  cos  :  fringe  educational  in order  , f  to  63.3  F  -A O  J2.  J3»  }*.  Rentage Increased fee s t r u c t u r e w i l l r e s u l t a b l e to a f f o r d u n i v e r s i t y t r a i n i n g  in  Industry  training  will  implement  university  campuses  Members  professional  of  legislation  to  take  and  finance  occupations  "refresher"  35.  A l l u n i v e r s i t i e s w i l l make a l l through part time a t t e n d a n c e  36.  Universities educat (a)  ion  will  extend  throughout  c o r r e s p o n d e n c e and  weekly  week  end  post  the  37.  A d u l t educat ion i n s t r u c t o r s positions w i l l require Oept.  33.  A universit  33«  sole  y dept.  function  future  status  will of  in  degree  graduate  less  educat  being  programs  b e required  on  '  through  annually  programs  (univ  through  a  available  ersit  y graduat  combination  professors  populated  areas  76.6  who w i l l of  iarj")  ofj hold  B.C.  I  80  f o r a l l f u l l time t e a c h i n g of E d . c e r t i f i c a t i o n  education  be d e v o t e d  adult  will  travelling  in  students  10  course*  province  (b)  seminars  fewer  to  will  be  research  established in  the  whose  present  and  ion  Adult education w i l l receive equal financing, curriculum, adrainistrat school education  recognition in i o n , e t c . with  |  I3.3  I  63.3  terms of public'  .A  O  PA.RT. .WO.  1)  2  LIKELIHOOD  POTENTIAL  EVENTS  O E R I V E O FROU  OF  WH I CH LIKELIHOOD  ROUND ONE  .  OCCURRENCE BY  OF  OCCURRENCE 5J!i  REACHES  198*:  (Write a  in  from  a  or  0-  100})  "nover")  1.  8oarding  campus  will  vocatlsnal  facilities be  provided  tra ining  A v e r a g e number o f e x c e e d I3 y e a r s .  3.  Seminars working  specific and  4.  or  to  near  EVENT OCCURS BY MARK INC  THE  (Please  THE  consider  CHANGE  both d i r e c t  AN "X" and  IN  ONE  indirect  OF  WOULD EXPECT  THE  COLUMNS.  effects)  FOR THOSE EVENTS WHICH YOU  RATED AS "VERY  GREAT" OR "GREAT"  IN'COLUMN 4,  THE  CHANCES YOU  NATURE OF THE  PLEASE  CESCRIBE  ANTICIPATE.  the  years  of  parents work  educat  I»n  7o  on-the-job on  roles  topics of  mothers  fathers  A pre-requisito be a  Pub  general only  ADULT EDUCATION YOU  5)  post  graduate  to  attaining  in a d u l t degree  an  education  in adult  ed.  3. O 2 © j>t  5.  IN  every  be o f f e r e d  single  changing  administrative will  will  for  ESTIMATE  IF  institution.  2. will  to  on o r  PLFASE  in  number  (Write year  "ON  «)  3)  ).  YEAR BY  SAMPLE P> «  lie  night  schools  interest/non  will  vocatianal  offer courses  /i  -~  1  <r-N  fjf  -n  <  _* J  •2>  2).  3)  YEAfl BY  LIKELIHOOD  LIKELIHOOO  OCCURREMCE  OF  BY  (Write  REACHES 50J  a  (Writ*  from  in  year o r  0-  Vocational no c o s t  2.  Financing  opposed  training  to e l l those  will  loo;)  training  to the federal  government  the i n d i v i d u a l .  3.  Vocational  will of  receive  social  training  training  equal  status (e.g.  ( e . g . plumbing)  recognition  with  in term*  professional  engineering). *  *. at  Vocational local  levels  centres  (e.g.  updated  delivery  training rather  will  be p r o v i d e d  than a t major  B.C.l.T.) systems  b y  using  and mobilized  classrooms.  5» adult  A l l employers  will  find  consider  both  direct  and indirect  effects)  *  U,  XI  •0 0  • c 0  z  FOR  THOSE  GREAT"  EVENTS  OR " G R E A T "  THE NATURE  WHICH YOU RATED IN COLUMN  value  e d u c a t i o n a s a a anagement  in  tool.  r  -  AS " V E R Y  « , PLEASE  OF THE CHANGES YOU  -  w i l l be  a c c e p t e d a * a n expense than  W0ULO E X P E C T  be p r o v i d e d  of a l l vocational (as  rather  EDUCATION YOU  5)  who a r e u n e m p l o y e d .  to professional)  IN ADULT  in  Very 1.  THE CHANGE  OCCURS BY HARKING AN "X" IN ONE Or THE COLUMNS.  number  "never")  at  THE EVENT  (Please  1584:  OCCURRENCE  a  IF  Slight  POTENTIAL EVENTS OERIVEO FROM ROUNO ONE  PLI'ASE E S T I M A T E  OF  Great  WH 1 CH  «)  Great  1)  DESCRIBE  ANTICIPATE.  LIKELIHOOD  BY  CF  WHICH  EVENTS  LIKELIHOOO  D E R I V E S FRQU ROUNO ONE  «) PL F A S E  :  OCCURRENCE  (Writ*  in  REACHES  a  502  (Write  in  a  or  year  Please  THE  CHANGE  OCCURS BY  consider  both  IN  ADULT  EDUCATION YOU  MARKING AN "X" djxtci  i  n  d  IN  ONE  indirect  W0UL0  OF THE  EXPECT  COLUMNS.  effects)  (  number  from  0- 1002)  Very  "never")  IF  OCCURRENCE 8Y  OF  ESTIMATE  THE EVENT  5) Uodera te  POTENTIAL  3)  ).  YEAfl  Great  2  Great  1)  •*-» JC  cn »-* CO  FOR  THOSE  tt  GREAT"  0  THE NATURE  c  az  EVENTS  OR " G R E A T " OF THE  WHICH YOU RATED IN  COLUMN  a,  CHANGES YOU  AS  "VERY  PLEASE  DESCRIBE  ANTICIPATE.  i»  T h e r e w i l l be * 25>5 i n c r e a s e i n g o v e r n m e n t make work p r o j e c t s ( e . g . L.I.P.,etc.)  •  •  •  7. of vocat ional t r a i n i n g programs w i l l be c o - s p o n s o r e d b e t w e e n g o v e r n m e n t end industry.  Increased  8. price ljkl of  index unit  J.  include  all  living in  will  b eing  husband  on a  of  133.*  100)  Vocational  extended but  of  families  income»(  cost  was  result  supported  and  in by  on  50J 2  wife).  training  will  compulsory  those  (Consumer based  1J71  be  basis  who a r e  to  unemployed  employable.  »  10. all  A portion children  devoted as  of  the  from K to  specifically  opposed  to  to  end-goal  curriculum 12 w i l l  lifelong oriented  for  be learning, education  •  o  ^3  OF  WH 1 CH EVENTS  D E R I V E D FROU  ROUNO  LIKELIHOOD ONE  OCCURRENCE  (Write  REACHES  a  ^02  [Write a  year  in or  (p?ffi,r  198*:  BY  OF  IP |HE EVENT OCCURS BY MARKING AN " X "  OCCURRENCE  0-  Compulsory years  12. the  13. a l l  All  education  employed  Retirement  252  (  in a d . (beyond  end  Mill  re-enter  in  ed. the  be  55  at  compared  will the  of  be a night  high  302  •  figure  for and  school.  increase  years  age  school  increase  in  1?71  opt  industria1 in  every  age.  with  will  30-**  normal  once  compulsory  y**rs  students  public  population).  least  will at  programs  There  enrolment  at  service,  commercial  15.  as  more  community  persons  arena  employment  502)  will  age.  training  14. of  of  In  group programs  tied  to  d j f ^ c ^ and i n d i r e c t  tfftcts)  5)  -** •a w i_ <J  1002}  >* L.  14  bft*h  number  from  "never")  11.  rr.nnld.r  IN ONE OF THE COLUMNS.  in  r  V  «• u  t; "O O 2S  Slight  POTENTIAL  P U A S E ESTIMATE THE CHANGE IN AOULT EOUCATIGN YOU WOULD EXPECT  LIKELIHOOD  BY  Great  YEAR  0  3)  2).  • c  0 =£  FOR  THOSE  GREAT" THE  EVENTS  OR " G R E A T "  NATURE  OF THE  WHICH YOU IN  RATED  COLUMN 4 ,  CHANGES YCU  AS  "VERY  PLEASE  DESCRIBE  ANTICIPATE.  3)  WH 1 CH  EVENTS  O E R I V E O FROU  LIKELIHOOD  ROUNO ONE  .  (Write  REACHES  a  50? in  V  lb. P r o v l n c i a l l y operated c h i l d care c e n t r e s ( u n d e r 6) a n d d r o p i n c e n t r e s ( o t o 1 2 * ) w i l l be p r o v i d e d l o c a l l y o o n  care  18. •  will  19.  facilities  50? hold  o f t h e women part  time  through  women a b o u t  an absence  20.  25$  in the labor  courses  will  employers  force  b e made  fora l l  the lab o r force  of 5 years*.  of parents will  as  p r o v i d e day  jobs.  to re-enter  after  children  will  on t h e p r e m i s e s .  "Refresher"  available  institutions  schools  with  be ' • i n g l e *  ''  s c h o o l age parents.  r  -  IN  H A R K I N G  direct  A D U L T  AN  E D U C A T I O N  "X"  IN  O N E  and indirect  YOU  OF  WOULD  T H E  E X P E C T  COLUMNS.  effects)  5)  *  >i 4)  A l l training  both  •**  0- 100*)  e>  17.  consider  C H A N G E  8Y  number  "never")  vocational  T H E  OCCURS  in  from  year o r  E S T I M A T E  T H E EVENT  (Please  BY 1 3 8 4 :  OCCURRENCE  a  IF  OCCURRENCE  OF  (Write  P L r A S E  OF  Slight  POTENTIAL  •0  LIKELIHOOD  Moderate  2). YEAfl BY  Great  1)  FOR c 0  THOSE  GREAT"  EVENTS  OR " G R E A T "  THE NATURE  WHICH YOU RATED IN COLUMN  AS  "VERY  4 , PLEASE  OESCRIBE  OF THE CHANGES YCU A N T I C I P A T E .  3) BY  WH 1 CH POTENTIAL  EVENTS  OF  IF  OCCURRENCE BY  OCCURRENCE REACHES  50i  (Write  (Write  in or  0- 100$)  V.  O  V  »  of  25$  »sub  cultural*  poor,the  groups  old,  economically,  physiologically  educationally  disadvantaged,  be  reached  22.  All  provide  23.  and  program  All  their  ed.  administered  planning  or  will  counselling for  all  regarding  ed. services  will  be  Recreation  -  department.  24. Community s c h o o l s w i l l d e v e l o p under the a d m i n i s t r a t ion of the p u b l i c s c h o o l system with a d . e d , a d m i n i s t r a t i v e personnel.  25. 50} o f o r g a n i z e d c o m m u n i t i e s c o - o r d i n a t e and a d m i n i s t e r a l l a d . services within their area.  will ed.  ADULT  and  V  -0 0  •a  FOR THOSE c  0 2:  GREAT"  EDUCATION IN  ONE  indirect  •  r  EVENTS  OR " G R E A T "  THE NATURE  •  will  education.  under the  direct  (t.g.  etc.)  communities  them  both  IN  MARKING AN " X "  the  services.  "neighbourhood"  who d e s i r e  upgrading  ad.ed.  organized  free  services adults  through  CHANGE 8Y  YOU WOULD OF THE  EXPECT  COLUMNS.  effects)  5)  L.  single, parents,  consider  V  i  21.  THE  OCCURS  in  a  "neverr*)  ESTIMATE  THE EVENT  (Please  1384:  a number from  year  PLFASE  OF  LiKELlHOOD  O E R I V E O FROM ROUND ONE  «)  LIKELIHOOD  Slight  2). YEAR  Great  1)  OF THE  WHICH YOU RATED IN  COLUMN  4,  CHANGES-YOU  AS  "VERY  PLEASE  DESCRIBE  ANTICIPATE.  3)  LIKELIHOOD OF  OCCURRENCE BY  (Write  REACHES  a  5J#  (Write  In  a  or  year  of  2&. secondary)  schools  will  participation  in  b oth  informal  programs  evoninj,  and  A full  27.  (public  28.  be  formal  after  and  community and  school,  in  the  weekends.  time  night  district will  on  (elementary  encourage  night  school)  offering  school in  night  director  each  school  school  courses  appointed.  In-service  technioues educators  will  ad. be  ed.  teaching  provided  in community  for  colleges  all teaching  adults.  23.  Mini  courses  technioues  will  vocational  and/or  instructors  30,  Mini  instructors to  adults.  will  ed.  in a d .  teaching  all  ad.ed.  adults.  ed.  be o f f e r e d  teaching  for  technical  teaching  courses  technioues  in a d .  be o f f e r e d  *  teaching  for ad.  academic  ed.  subjects  THE CHANGE  OCCURS BY  consider  both  number  from  0-  IN  AOULT  EDUCATION YOU  MARKING AN " X " direct  and  IN  ONE  indirect  W0ULO  OF THE  EXPECT  COLUMNS.  effects)  in  100*)  Very  "never")  (Please  1934:  OCCURRENCE  ESTIMATE  THE EVENT  5) ' FOR THOSE None  EVENTS  IF  OF  , Slight  POTENTIAL  D E R I V E D FROU ROUND ONE  PLFASE  LIKELIHOOD  WH 1 CH  Moderate  6Y  Great  2), YEAfl  Great  1)  GREAT"  EVENTS  OR " G R E A T "  THE NATURE  OF THE  WHICH YOU RATED IN  COLUMN  A,  CHANGES YCU  AS  "VERY  PLEASE  DESCRIBE  ANTICIPATE.  POTENTIAL  LIKELIHOOO  WH 1 CH  EVENTS  DERIVED FRO¥  BY  LIKELIHOOD  ROUND ONE  .  -  OF  BY  REACHES  a  Community  administrative  ordinate  night  college  school  in  from  a  or  0-  41 k.  services level  at  will  auspices  33*  5? C  the be  with  °f  administrative  public  and  university)  night will  community  individual  of  education local  under  the  (  Dept.  and  of  ed. of  adult  instituted  ad.  favor  of  regional  the  Education.  roles  school,  in  participation  in  all  colleges  be e l i m i n a t e d  co-operation  in  and  decision  mate i n g .  3*. will the  A co-ordinator be a p p o i n t e d Dept.  of  of  ad.  ed.  provincially  services through  Education,  '>  35.  Host  receive  ad.  ed. administrators  on-the-job  training.  will  •  O  C3  co-  activities  both  IN  ADULT  EDUCATION YOU W0ULO  MARKING AN " X " direct  and  IN  ONE  indirect  OF THE  EXPECT  COLUMNS.  effects)  5)  «.  provide to  consider  —*  1002)  act i v i t i es.  Co-ordination  32.  will staff  CHANGE  number  (Write "never'')  colleges  regional  THE  OCCURS BY  in  >• L. 41  31.  ESTIMATE  THE EVENT  (Please  1S8*:  (Write  5J)£  IF  OCCURRENCE  OCCURRENCE  year  PLTASE  OF  r  •*•» «J L. V  TJ O  Slight  YEAfl  0  3)  2).  Great  1)  FOR THOSE  «  GREAT"  0  THE NATURE  c  EVENTS  OR " G R E A T " OF THE  WHICH YOU RATEO AS IN  COLUMN A ,  CHANGES YCU  "VERY  PLEASE  0ESCRI9E  ANTICIPATE.  3)  POTENTIAL  EVENTS  LIKELIHOOD ONE  OF OCCURRENCE REACHES £ 0 j ! (Write  in  a  or  year  "never")  OCCURRENCE BY a  THE  OCCURS  consider  both  number 100$)  Community  37* of  present  colleges public  will  IN  A0ULT  EDUCATION  MARKING AN " X " direct  and  IN  ONE  Indirect  YOU  t>  u  "O 0  FOR THOSE EVENTS GREAT" THE  OR " G R E A T "  NATURE  OF THE  WHICH YOU RATED IN  COLUMN  CHANGES  0  •  cd.  administrators.  38.  Community  function  of  all  colleges public  will  night  take  over  school  systems.  39*  Community  "branches? with a  40.  in  colleges  every  population  Community  vocational p resent  of  colleges school  have In  B.C.  10,000*.  and a c a d e m i c  night  will  community  will  take  functions  EXPECT  COLUMNS.  effects)  absorb  school ad.  WOULD  OF THE  5) V •*-» « L. V  50J o f o p e r a t i n g c o s t s o f n i g h t s c h o o l p r o g r a m s w i l l be p r o v i d e d t h r o u g h p r o v i n c i a l funds.  25}  CHANGE BY  in  from 0-  ESTIMATE  THE EVENT  (Please  1984•  (Write  Very  i  IF  OF  None  WH 1 CH O E R I V E O FROU ROUND  PLfASE  LIKELIHOOD  Slight  BY  Great  2). YEAR  *  over of  system.  li  4,  YOU  AS  "VERY  PLEASE  0ESCRI8E  ANTICIPATE.  ).  YEAR POTENTIAL  LIKELIHOOD  EVENTS  LIKELIHOOD OCCURRENCE REACHES  a  j0$  year  from  or  0-  ordinate  their  overlap  42.  colleges,  of  district  or  adults  activities  to  ADULT  E0UCATI0N  direct  and  IN  ONE  indirect  YOU  W0ULO  OF THE  effects)  5) •  V  L,  O  •a  V  -00 a;  —J  JZ 0  FOR THOSE  0  GREAT"  0  THE NATURE  c  EVENTS  OR " G R E A T " OF THE  WHICH YOU RATED IN  COLUMN  4,  CHANGES YCU  public  schools  wiff  during  the  day  —4  CO  co-  offer courses  time.  -  All  43.  ad.  ed. a c t i v i t i e s  shared  responsibility  night  schools  44.  Facilities  ational  training  vocational day  and  junior  areas  public and  offer  etc.) 10  will  night  in a l l law,  areas  of  medicine,  least be  use  secondary  will  be  lie  -  '  for  voc-  different  provided  school  be a  colleges.  in at  senior  'para  community  pub  (equipment,  Institutions  45. • to  and  will  between  for  in, a l l  schools.  established  professional' professional teaching,etc.  training work,  e.g.  r  "VERY 0ESCRIBE  ANTICIPATE.  avoid  vocational/technical  AS  PLEASE  ad.  will  EXPECT  COLUMNS.  services.  of  50$  academic for  school  r e c r e a t i o n commissions  both  IN  MARKING AN " X "  Kf  V  All  consider  •»»  100?)  :and  CHANGE  number  in  U,  ed.  THE  OCCURS BY  in  "never")  41,  ESTIMATE  THE EVENT  (Please  1S84:  (Write  (write  IF  OCCURRENCE BY  OF  a  PLrASE  Or  WH 1 CH  O E R I V E O FROU ROUND ONE  0  3) 8Y  Great  2  1)  3)  2). YEAR  BY  WHICH POTENTIAL  EVENTS  OF  LIKELIHOOO  D E R I V E D FROU ROUND ONE  .  <}  LIKELIHOOD  OF  OCCURRENCE BY  lJSA:  OCCURRENCE  (Write  REACHES  a number from  _5_0?  (Writ*  in  a  or  year  "never")  PLTASE IF  ESTIMATE  THE EVENT  (Please  THE CHANGE  OCCURS BY  consider  both  IN  AOULT EOUCATION  MARKING AN " X " direct  and  0- 1002)  Specific  on  the  job  programs  to a l l e v i a t e  in  tedious  repetitious  or  factory  or  •para' areas  50J  of  (18years*  will  work  provide in  selected  (e.g.  teaching,  etc.)  all  adults  ) will  institutions training  industrial  training  professional  engineering,  48.  colleges  professional of  will  oredom  jobs.  Community  47»  b  in  return  for  short  programs  at  the  to  province  pest  6 month  least  secondary to  once  1 year  In  their  lifetimes.  The p r i m a r y  <3«  colleges  will  for  school  high  which  will  be  between h . s .  and voc.  JO.  Community  all  offer  needs.  community  university, traininq  colleges  education  mini  academic  institutions  economically  education  basic  as  academic  "umbrella"  of  to  completion,  serve  and  function  to  will  course*  bridge's and  non  pt.  become  providing  feasible  time  local  for  adult  std  indirect  YOU  WOULD  OF THE  EXPECT  COLUMNS.  effects)  5) FOR THOSE  EVENTS  OR " G R E A T "  THE NATURE  b e developed  ONE  in  GREAT"  4t>.  IN  OF THE  WHICH YOU RATEO AS IN  COLUMN  4,  CHANGES YOU  "VEflY  PLEASE  0ESCRI3E  ANTICIPATE.  ).  LIKELIHOOD OF  WH 1 CH  EVENTS  BY  Or  tn  a  or  year  a  $0g  (Write  1334:  (Write  OCCURRENCE REACHES  ESTIMATE  IF  EVENT  THE  0-  (Please  *  year  colleges  will  university  expand  consider  both  direct  100$)  All  hours  in  53.  L, V  <  l_*> O  *o  0  GREAT"  "share" programs  5*.  All carry  to  their  job  suit  le  their  their  55*  Employers or  or  at  that  for  industry.  who  need  re-training  will  be  the  same  wage  at  will  night  facilitie  changing  jobs  retraining  'employees  industry  training  re-training  ation  (public  in  employees  employers  during  ab  and  in order  provide  incentive  credit  skills.  colleges  needs  on  receive  their  personnel  can  employment  will  paid  period.  b y  level /  sponsor  all  re-educ-  programs  for  their  school  facilities  i  1  private) •  and  IN  ONE  indirect  f  !  !  1  L. .  EVENTS  OR " G R E A T "  THE NATURE  undergraduate  educational  upgrading  colleges  tc  on  Community  will and  employees  based  EDUCATION YOU  WOULD  OF THE  EXPECT  COLUMNS.  effects)  5)  •  52.  ADULT  FOR THOSE  programs.  bonuses  IN  MARKING AN " X "  number  j Very Community  embrace  CHANGE  in  from  "never")  51.  THE  OCCURS BY  OCCURRENCE  LIKELIHOOD  O E R I V E O FROU ROUNO ONE  PLfASE  None  POTENTIAL  3) BY  Slight  YEA7?  Great  2  1}  CF THE  WHICH YOU RATED IN  COLUMN  *,  CHANCES YCU  AS  "VERY  PLEASE  DESCRIBE  ANTICIPATE.  2  POTENTIAL  ROUND  CF  IF  OCCURRENCE SY  (Write  REACHES  a number from 0 - ICO*)  50?  (Write  In  year  or  *> u 0 >» L. V  25?  include  of  new j o b s  offered  apprenticeship  or  THE  consider  L  t> TJ O  ZZ  CHANGE  OCCURS BY  in  "never")  5&.  ESTIMATE  THE EVENT  (Plezse  1584:  OCCURRENCE  a  PLFASE  OF  LIKELIHOOO  ONE  0  LIKELIHOOD  BY  WHICH  EVENTS  FROa  DERIVED  3)  ).  YEAR  Great  1)  both  1 JC  direct  5)  University  will of  travel  (or  (based  FOR  individual  communities)  z  instructors needs  rather  than  -  students.  The " o p e n "  58. will  be  sore  non  less fee  resident  Non B . C .  53.  than at  university"  implemented  one  Members be  take  part  students  residents year)  university  will  in order  of  will  than  at  reach  less  (residency pay a  cost.  of  higher  residents.  professional  r e q u i r e d through  annually.  concept to  occupations  legislation  time' " r e f r e s h e r "  courses  to 7  THOSE  THE NATURE  •"-« CO  EOUCATION IN  ONE  Indirect  YOU  WOULD  OF THE  EXPECT  COLUMNS.  effects)  '  0  c  will  college)  and  GREAT"  on-the-job  on e d u c a t i o n a l  AOULT  0  o*>  training.  157»  IN  MARKING AN " X "  EVENTS  OR " G R E A T " OF THE  WHICH YOU RATED IN  COLUMN  4,  CHANGES YOU  AS  "VERY  PLEASE  DESCRIBE  ANTICIPATE.  EVENTS  *)  LIVELIHOOD  L i;<EL i'HCOD  OCCURRENCE  OF  ROUNO ONE  BY  IF  (Write  R E A C H E S 5_0j£  a  (Write  in  from  a  or  0- 100$)  ESTIMATE  THE EVENT  (Plaase  1584:  OCCURRENCE  year  P L r A S E  Or  THE  CHANGE  OCCURS SY  consider  both  IN  AOULT  EDUCATION YOU  MARKING AN " X " direct  and  IN  ONE  Indirect  OF  WOULD  THE  EXPECT  COLUMNS.  affects)  in  number  5)  ftS  l_  "never")  >%  to  L.  V  t-  0  Slight  POTENTIAL O E R I V E O FROM  3)  ),  YEAR B Y WHICH  Moderate  2  FOR c  THOSE  GREAT" THE  EVENTS  OR " G R E A T "  WHICH YOU RATED IN  COLUMN 4 ,  NATURE OF T H E CHANGES YOU  AS  "VERY  PLEASE  OESCRIBE  ANTICIPATE.  1  All  6l.  universities  undergraduate through  ^2.  part  degree tims  the  combination (b)  t  areas  ^3-  week of  (a)  post  through  education a  •  corresponocnce  professors  end  seminars  of  and  who w i l l in  undergraduate  programs  campus"  extend  less  hold  populated  B.C.  5^  degree the  of  a l l  available  graduation)  province  ravelling  weekly  will  (university  throughout  make  attendance.  Universities  graduate  will  programs  to  will  any  be  B.C.  pre-requisite  university  offered  resident  who  educational  "off has  background.  1  1  A prerequisite be  clauses  agreamcnis will  writ£«,'.*< that  be o f f e r e d  positions nological  are  to  all  employment  ir.ts  all  worksftj  upgrading to  a l l  phased  or  those  out  wil  1  :  ! 1  retraining whosi  through  tech-  progress.  r  -  -5.  CD  Shown a r t previous After  the  evaluating  your  & lower your  the  quartiles  estimate  reasons*  in  please  from  red.  the  yet-  i  i±->±H  mates  re-cstimat]  estiof  Reasons  the  the  Expert  4 the (please K a m i l j a rj r e a s o n s j subgroups you) Quite  RISP „IN  i ?t !  5 3  given  G J j  1  Will  J 111 J FTT i ! i I ! I i I  add if  be a  1  Little  occur  impossible or  no  effect  to A  necessity will  to  k e e p up w i t h  b ecorae  stronger  I jlT|'"!Tij"T  !_i-Lia.jlTTn  e ^ i freeze w i l l  Depression  i  Virtually  further they  rise Union c o n t r o l  Wigs  1  by  panel  prime  factor  Hhh  j I !| j  f-i-H-4-  -frl-!-f-  Median  '  curve.  SAMPLE INJ  •u  upper  round and  will  be be  imposed inevitable  cost  of  living  Shown a r t previous After your  th*  upper  round and  evaluating  4  lower  ynrr  the  quartiles  estimate  reasons*  in  pleas*  from  red.  the ,  rc-estima  curve.  Median mates  estiof  = Expert Quite  4 the j  Familiat  subgroups 1 M l SAT-j  OJ-ilt  INCREASE. .IN  L43 0R. FORCE.  Reasons  the  the  given  by  Virtually  (pleas*  add  reasons  if  further they  Little  occur  or  no  effect  to  you)  ilia  impossible  panel  A  prime  factor  n  With  a  shorter  employed, There  will  based  on  Marginal less as  work  week more  especially be  increased secondary  primary  farm  will  be  production  industry  employment  important  tertiary  people  women  will  in o v e r a l l  industry  become  proportionately  employment  picture  develops.  Immigration The  pill  Day  care  IsMany unemployed are unemployable  INDICATOR TWO:  CHANGE IN AQE GROUP DI ST* I B'UTN  HlSLh Population Increase generally  Reduction of number of children per family Post war b aby bulge moving through the overall figures  Shown a r t t h g u p p e r 4 l o w e r q u a r t i l e s f r o m t h e p r e v i o u s r o u n d a n d y p " r e s t i m a t e i n r e d . *• A f t e r e v a l u a t i n g the reasons* pleaso r e - e s t i m a your curve.  Median mates  estiof  • Expert Quite  the 4  the  raailia  subgroups  •  R e a s o n s g i v e n by the p a n e l ( p l e a s e add f u r t h e r reasons i f they occur you)  Virtually Little  to  impossible or  no  A prime  effect  factor  High T.  a.  More  women w i l l  trend and  toward  (b)  Number  of  of  point work  participate importance  family  females  more  a  in  of  s a  labor  (a)  unit  aligned  as  homemaker  decreases  employed w i l l  closely  market  r o l e as increase  with  to  a  no. a v a i l a b l e  to  G r e a t e r a c c e p t a n c e o f f e m a l e s w o r k i n g i n i n d u s t r y •. D e s i r e f o r s e l f f u l f i l l m e n t o u t s i d e t h e home Better family planning Concerted e f f o r t s of Status of M o s t women w i l l r e - e n t e r l a b o r families  Too f e s  part  Drastic  change  Hjjjh  time  jobs  to  Uomen g r o u p s force after raising  available  t h e more  traditional  H i qh  small  communities  exceeding Shift  to  living A sense areas, a  to  surburban with of  urban  of  growth  patterns  t  control  o rural  residential  work in  will  b e fostered  stabilizing  Human R e s o u r c e s  districts  will  bringing  exert  of  in  to  will  another  all  populations  Board  greater  about  some  urb  shift  f r o m one  influence anization  areas  populations  community  or  "community"  resulting  rural  have  Vancouver  result  Regional  Rural  percentage  (Rossland)  Many  and  unit  (Vancouver)  Vancouver w i l l maintain i t s present of t o t a l population increase  ag  family  small  Shown a r e previous After your  the  upper  round  and  evaluating  4 lower y^y.r  the  quartiles  estimate  reasons*  in  please  from  red.  the  •  Median mates  estiof  r c - e s t ima t![« E x p e r t  curve.  Quite  the 4  subgroups J—•  the  Familia  R e a s o n s g i v e n by the panel ( p l e a s e add f u r t h e r reasons if they o c c u r you)  Virtually tittle  impossible or  no  effect  to A prine  factor  rf—i—i—1—r-r-r-f-i i ' i i i ' i i i—i i t" i i-i 1" r - i — f - t - P - v - r P S c h o o l d i s t r i c t a d . e d . i s more e f f i c i e n t t o o p e r a t e than any ed.  e c o n o m i c a l a n d more o t h e r system of » d .  A c o l l e g e s e r v i n g many d i s t r i c t s c a n n , t e f f e c t i v e as l o c a l o r s c h o o l d i s t r i c t R e s u l t of p o p u l a t i o n increase  be a s control.  Demand f o r c o u r s e s b e y o n d r e g u l a r s c h o o l h o u r s w i l l i n c r e a s e , w h i l e the t r a d i t i o n a l J to 3 appr ach is d i s c r e d i t e d  \  C r i t e r i a d i c t a t i n g t h e number o f i n s t r u c t o r s is economical. When public a t t i t u d e supports more i n s t r u c t o r s t h e y w i l l be a p p o i n t e d  ITi-prrj/i  INDICATOR S!<|  /  j j ! jrrrl  ADMINISTRATOR? IN PUDLIC N.S.  k&w Community c o l l e g e s w i l l d i s t r i c t programs  continue  to absorb  school  Ulan Ad. e d . is province  becoming  more o f  a  life  style  in  the  Dept. of E d . w i l l t a k e a renewed i n t e r e s t in l o c a l control Expansion of r e s p o n s i b i l i t y from s t r i c t l y a d . e d . to i n c l u d e c o - o r d i n a t i o n of community schools.  tow Community  colleges  will  absorb a  administrators C o - o p e r a t i o n b etween a g e n c i e s will  allow  for a  smaller  number o f  existing  administering  time a l l o t m e n t  a d m i n i s t r a t o r s to a d , ed. a c t i v i t i e s A t p r e s e n t t h e r e a r e a r e s t r i c t e d number administrative opportunities  ad.  from of  ed.  Shown a r e previous After  the  upper  round and  evaluating  your  4  lower  the  quariiles  estimate  VOJJX  reasons,  in  from the  pleaso  curve,  ISO  mates  esti-  of  Regional courses the res  .LDZ  tND  ±t± H ±  TFt-HIrtzmtt  Ithtrrrt-ft 7i  111  ? » f f.RO-LWIS. POST ^ n , . N i i a a i I U ^ , r j X H - - i L B T£!i:';'i'.'i. r j c  iti±m-Hl[fri--Hflli±i  3  -  Little  impossible or  no  effect -  to A pria*  >r  factor  -xl  d i s t r i c t s d i f f e r and each i n s t i t u t i o n o f f e r s ] t o meet c o m m u n i t y n e e d s / d e s i r e s w i t h i n urces of that institution  Community  •? /ol  Virtually  the  High.  T.LU !.!  *  Median  R e a s o n s g i v e n by the p a n e l r e - e s t i m a t c E x p e r t & t h e , ( p l e a s e add f u r t h e r j Quite Familiar! reasons i f thoy o c c u r ; subgroups * ' you)  red.  c o l l e g e s , wi i l  increasingly  administer  B o r e of t o t a l a d . e d . programs S c h o o l d i s t r i c t s w i l l c o n t i n u e to amalgamate U l t i m a t e l y t r e n d w i l l be d e c i d e d on a n e c o n o m i c b asis.  If  educ.  then there w i l l the j o b  tax  be  is  less  removed from the concern as  to  who  land does  Mjjh Technological training Community offering training  change  will  demand more  specialized  c o l l e g e s w i l l c o n t i n u e t h e i r r o l e as preparation f o r advanced u n i v e r s i t y  k&w  ro  Shown a r « previous After your  the  upper  round and  evaluating  4 lower yo»r  the  quartiles  estirr-ate  rcasor.s>  in  please  from  red.  the  Median est i o f the  '  mates  r e - c s t ima iU  Curve,  Expert  j Quite i Kubg.-ou -iuj.  _  _C0U.F. g?s  jiT'i : ' ' M i J'T'i TT i  •"•""33  .  4 the ar.ii I i i  R e a s o n s g i v e n by the p a n e l ( p l e a s o add f u r t h e r reasons i f they o c c u r  Virtually Little  impossible or  no  effect  to  you)  A prime  factor  iHLgh' Increased  leisure  Interest Enhanced  at  community  to  learn  for  security colleges  for  structure of  acidemia College  adults  income  excellence  fee  Creation  allow  than  reputation  academic Lower  will  rather  more new c o l l e g e s  will  provide  greater  opportunity  act  will  put  the c o l l e g e s  on a  firmer  basis  Low Academic  courses  Most a r e a s  in the  will  not  b e degree  province  do n o t  or  have  job this  oriented college  facility Colleges w i l l into a v a r i e t y  'NP1C. ' I f  J i . S . E^»"lMT..4-TXC.HJM£^S.CJiQ,g.ljS. f f l  jTir,! j T ' ! " ? T " | " H " ( ~ f " f " T  } t i  T-I  c o n t i n u e to a t t r a c t o f programs  part  time  students  Hi jh i S p e c i a l i z a t i o n w i l l l e a d many to employsb ility C o l l e g e s possess b e t t e r t r a i n i n g than s c h o o l d i s t r i c t s dob i n c e n t i v e s w i l l e n c o u r a g e u p g r a d i ng Increased technology force  and  upgrade  for  opportunities  educational  increased  number  in  lab  or  R e l a t e d to av a i l a b i l i t y of r e s o u r c e s , p e o p l e , and equipment. As f a c i l i t i e s grow ( p a r t i c u l a r l y i n s m a l l e r ' o u t o f t h e way* d i s t r i c t s ) wo w i l l enrolment More s p e c i a l t!'«e, both  p r o j e c t u p g r a d i n g o n - t h e - j o b i n company i n p u b l i c a n d p r i v a t e s e c t o r o f a d . ed  Uw Employees  will  be e x p e c t e d t o " q u a l i f y " '  for  higher  Shown a r e t h a u p p e r previous After your  & lower  quart i l e a  r o u n d a n d y-,i• r e s t i m a t e  evaluating  the reasons,  from the  M e oI a n  in r e d . '  please  mates  re-estima  curve.  *  esti-  Expert Quite  Reasons  of tha 4 the  by  Virtually  impossible  panel  (please  add f u r t h e r  Familiar] reasons  subgroups  given  the  if  they  Little  occur  o r no e f f e c t  to  you)  A prlae f a c t o r  t!±!i.h Operating will  costs  will  rise,  while  number o f  graduates  decrease  I n f l a t i o n and an irfcrcasing/demand equipment Proportion will  of t o t a l  become  more  f o r the best  of  money a l l o c a t e d . f o r e d u c a t i o n constant  L e s s enpha.sis on e x p a n s i o n o f b u i l d i n g s , p e r s e , and rcore e m p h a s i s o n " r e c y c l i n g " o f p r e s e n t f a c i l i t i e s The c e n t r a l i z e d d e c r c a s i ng  1NP. V-l.  is  rapidly  receive funding  increasingly larger f o r post s e c o n d a r y  More  than o n  structures  emphasis will  Present  A  concept  Community c o l l e g e s w i l l amounts o f p r o v i n c i a l ed'jc-i t t o n Peiple V<TA  institution  on p e o p l e  desire  public  training  in t h e i r  own l o c a l e  image o f t h e " a v e r a g e  university  studsnt  FULL T l ^ UH»VSR?>TY_rNP.nM^H M l  T1-T-  rO"-i-  4^  University  rj-r  coverage  Ti "CI  J  i «i / » ! : 0  :o  to population  have l o s t young  must  expand  to  include  total  in the province increase,  a great  deal of  although  universities  their appeal  to the  1J-4-L1  JO:  Ti IC  Tied  xi:t  policies  T T  T T T  -rr  TT  University  -H+  i T  T~rrr i-LL  id  |v;i;t!  -U-  TTT  Kisses  -H  J_1_L  m-  concept  h a s become  irrelevanx  to  large  of the population  Vocational, b e more  technological i n demand  and c a r e e r p r o g r a m s  will  -3, ], j , I  Shown a r c  the upper 4 l i e s frofs t h * ! "cdiar; e s t i p r e v i o u s round and ^i-- e s t i m a t e ' ir. r e d . ' j mates of th  After  evaluating  your c u r v e . .  t h * rcasoro.  please  r c - c s t i.'.ii i i ' . - E x p e r t  j Quite r a a i i j subarouos  i  Seasons given by J the panel tI (please add f u r t h e r •• reasons i f they occur t o you)  Virtually Little A  impossible or  prime  no  effect  factor  HLlh Industrial  denand  Many  will  tsors  recognition  for  enter  and  the  trained the  personnel  field  number  of  as  ad.  ed.  offerings  gains increase  Law the is  i n i t i a l inertia too g r e a t  against  trained  adult  educators  APPENDIX D  L e t t e r outline procedure. Sample page. Page of d i r e c t i o n s . Questionnaire three.  APPENDIX D Adult Education  Research Centre  128 May  27,  1974.  Dear Thank you f o r y o u r i n t e r e s t i n g , v a r i e d and t h o r o u g h r e s p o n s e s t o t h e second q u e s t i o n n a i r e . I must a t t h e sane t i n e a p o l o g i z e f o r a s k i n g you t o d e v o t e so much t i n e t o i t s c o m p l e t i o n . I would l i k e t o h a s t i l y p o i n t out- t h a t t h i s t h i r d and f i n a l q u e s t i o n n a i r e w i l l d e f i n i t e l y ; not, be n e a r l y as t i m e consuming. I t r e q u i r e s m e r e l y c h e c k i n g oi'f ite:as i n one o f t h r e e columns, and r e ~ e s t i m a t i n g d a t e s , e t c . I t does n o t r e q u i r e w r i t t e n comments a t a l l u n l e s s you so d e s i r e . Because t h i s q u e s t i o n n a i r e r e p r e s e n t s t h e f i n a l s h a r p e n i n g o f consensus cm t h e developments i n a d u l t e d u c a t i o n which you have f o r e c a s t , I s i n c e r e l y hope t h a t you w i l l , f o r t h i s l a s t t i n e , b o t h o f f e r your knowledgeable o p i n i o n s and weigh" t h o s e o f y o u r f e l l o w p a n e l l i s t s through the completion of the questionnaire.Of t h e 64. items on t h e second q u e s t i o n n a i r e , 29 have been r e t a i n e d . These items were chosen t h r o u g h w e i g h t i n g n u m e r i c a l l y t h e V e r y G r e a t , G r e a t , and Moderate ( t h e i r e f f e c t on ad. ed.) c a t e g o r i e s and r e t a i n i n g o n l y t h o s e which had the g r e a t e s t r e s p o n s e . I n t h i s q u e s t i o n n a i r e you a r e asked tot 1) a s s e s s t h e changes the p a n e l p r e d i c t e d w h i c h may o c c u r i n a d u l t education i n the province. 2) r e - e s t i m a t e y o u r assessments o f b o t h t h e l i k e l i h o o d o f o c c u r r e n c e and i t s impact, s h o u l d i t o c c u r , on a d u l t e d u c a t i o n . P r e c e d i n g t h e q u e s t i o n n a i r e you w i l l f i n d a sample paxfe and a s h o r t l i s t o f d i r e c t i o n s which a m p l i f y and e x p l a i n the v a r i o u s columns, markings, e t c . I am a g a i n e n c l o s i n g a s e l f a d d r e s s e d stamped envelope and hope t h a t you w i l l be a b l e t o r e t u r n t h e q u e s t i o n n a i r e a t y o u r e a r l i e s t c o n v e n i e n c e . A g a i n ' I b o t h thank you  f o r y o u r time and  Y ours  (Mrs.)  Kary  a p o l o g i z e f o r t a k i n g so much o f i t .  sincerely,  Aitken  Shown i n C o l u e n s 2, 3» a n d 4 a r o t h e u p p e r a n d l o w e r q u a r t l i e s a n o t h e o e d i a n ) f t h e g r o u p e s t i o a t e s . Your e a r l i e r estimate is in r e d . In l i g h t o f t h e g r o u p e s t i m a t e s , t h e comments i n C o l u a n 3, a n d t h e n a t u r e o f the event i t s e l f , p l e a s e nark your c u r r e n t e s t i m a t e with an " X " .  IMPACT ON ADULT EDUCATION A N T I C I P A T E D BY THE GROUP THE SCALE  USED  Very Great Sreat Moderate Slight None  IS  AS  |5)  IF  THE EVENT  OCCURS.  FOLLOWSt  CHANGES OR CAUSES OF CHANGES IN ADULT EDUCATION SUGGESTED IN ROUND 2 , ASSUMING THAT THE EVENT OCCURS. P L E A S E EVALUATE THESE COMMENTS, USING THE SCALE T J THE R13H T , ANO AOO OTHERS THAT YOU THINK ARE IMPORTANT.  More c r e d i b i l i t y a n d v i s i b i l i t y f o r A d u l t E d u c n t i j n g e n e r a l l y p l j s a degree of professionalism* W i l l r e s u l t in academi: t r a i n i n g outweighing experi once. W i l l l i m i t the opportunity the ranks.  n this  Upper (In  Quartil« this  case,  and  the  the  saae  case,  the oedian  lower  quart!Is  fall  on t h e  scale.  point  for  "coaiig  up*  1  through  response at  Response 1330)  Lower Q u a r t i l e  Response  (In  13s!)  this  case  ro  KO  130  DIRECTIONS  I.  The group median response and the upper and lower q u a r t i l e s are shown i n black and your i n d i v i d u a l response i n each category i s marked with a red doti, • Please mark your new estimates with an "X".  II.  Please evaluate each of the suggested changes with a check mark. In evaluating these changes, please make the following d i f f e r e n t i a t i o n : 1) i f you think the change l i s t e d i s a d i r e c t and important f a c t o r supporting your estimate of the impact of the event on adult education, mark the "agree" column. 2) i f you think i t might have a bearing but i t i s not of major importance, mark the column "possible but unimportant" column. 3) i f you consider the change i s too u n l i k e l y to be included i n evaluating the impact of the event on adult education, then mark the "disagree" column.  III.  Add other changes which may occur to you i n your evaluation.  Shown Your and  in  columns  earlier t!<o  nature  cf  ie  the  YEAR  3Y  WHICH LiKGLiKOOD OF OCCURRENCE REACHES  502  4 arc in  event  3)  2j  SELECTEO POTENTIAL EVENTS FROU ROUND TWO  and  2,3,  estisit*  LIKELIHOOD OF OCCURREMCE BY  (*)  red.  tho  upper and  In  itself,  light please  lower  of  que r t t i e s  and  the aedian  t h e gr;.up e s t l o a i e s j  aark  your  current  the  eotlonte  IKPACT CK ADULT EDUCATION A N T I C I P A T E D 8Y OCCURS. VG *  THE SCALE  Very  USED  IS  AS  with an  the  estimates. 5,  "X".  GROUP If  TKE  group  in Colunn  EVENT  THE  FOLLOWS:  as  Great  G .=  Great  CHANCES OR CAUSES OF CHANGES  U  Moderate  SUGGESTED  S =  Slight  PLEASE  N »  Kone  THE R I C H T ,  a  of  consents  IH  ROUND 2 ,  E V A L U A T E THESE AND ADD  ADULT  IN  ASSUMING THAT  EDUCATION  TKE EVEKT  OCCURS.  COMMENTS, USING THE S C A L E  OTHERS  THAT YCU THINK  is  TO  LU  -1  ARE  UJ UJ  IMPORTANT.  cc e»  t 1.  Vocational  be  provided at  those  who a r e  training no c o s t  will to  .Never  all  unemployed  -  Percer t .  but  eaployable.  .Later  L  r  1330  VS  100  <  1 6  Vocational  provided at  training  local  than at  oajor  Burraty  Vocational  using  updated  and a o b i l i i e d  will  levels  centres  <l  .1580  by  systems  classrooms.  will  education  vocational result  existing  in merely  facilities  -  The r e s u l t  of  -  Facilities  will  trained If  is  There w i l l  be c a l l e d  have  not  efficient  nore  increased  woulc  probably  B o r e  and  on  be  be « o r e  of  and s h o r t e r  work  weel  instructors  areas. local  support  travelling  necessary.  re-trainirg  of  wooen.  Industry  will  become more a u t o m a t e d  training  will  be e s s e n t i a l  Later  100  VG  J  <  _13S0  -  There w i l l  -  Equipment  -  1970  -  1  :°  Population  to  keep  therefore  •a  pace.  and  interior  will  lead  in c l a s s e s and nuobers Education  This  will  provide  training.  Boeing  has  The onus  aore  been d o i n g  onto of  the  Increased  de-  duties  for  people It  for  of  people  involved  direct access years.  B.C.  to  is  voca-  just  bandwagon.  organisation  l o c a l area Education  to  adainistrat*r.  Adult  tional  units.  points.  Increases  Adult -  ETV a n d e o b i l e  usage.  with  on t h e  J  of  industralizaticn  into  Education  cli»bing -  use  deoand f u l l  Much new c l e r i c a l work a n d a d o l n i s t r a t i v e Adult  -  .1500  be e x t e n s i v e costs  centralizing  CO  to  1.  -Ntevcr  cc 0 <  awareness.  p r o v i e e d and  extensive  become  operation  general  technology  to  within approved  there  students -  will  L.-5  UJ UJ  classes.  ~_0  rather  (e.g.  School)  delivery  be  -  -  .157c  *.  Local adult provide  ZJ  making  and  co-ordinatl  n will  the  role  the  director  local  level.  ev e n n o r e  need f o r  upgrading  of  important. at  the  be of  1)  Shown i n c o l u m n s 2,3, and t a r o the upper and lower q u a r t ! Its and the n a d i e n o f the g r o u p e s t i m a t e s . Your e a r l i e r e s t l s a t e is in r e d . In l i g h t o f t h e g r o u p e s t i m a t e s , t h e comments In C o l u m n 5, and tho r.ature o f tho event i t s e l f , p l t a j e c a r k your c u r r e n t e s t i m a t e with an " X " .  YEAR  EVENTS  8Y  '..ttlCH  FROM ROUND TWO  LIXELIUCOO OF  LIK.ELiHOOD CF OCCURRENCE  8Y J584  OCCURRENCE REACHES  5CJ  *) IKPACT ON ADULT OCCURS. VG = V e r y  Great  G =  Great  H »  aodorcte  S  •  H •  EDUCATION A N T I C I P A T E D 8Y THE GROUP  THE SCALE  USED  IS  AS  IF  THE  EVENT  •  a.  FOLLOW:  y)  —  CHANGES OR CAUSES OF CHANGES  Slight  SUGGESTED  None  PLEASE  IN  ROUND 2,  IN  ADULT  EDUCATION  A S S U a i N G THAT THE EVENT  E V A L U A T E THESE  OCCURS.  COMMENTS, USIKG THE S C A L E  THE R I G H T , AND ADD OTHERS  THAT YCU THINK  TO  UJ  IMPORTANT. 5. Most e m p l o y e r s w i l l f i n d v e K e i n a d u l t e d u c a t i o n as a management tool.  Percer)t.  I (  .TOO  _1S30  More  -  Upgrading  is  This  be  150'  VS  1 s  A  1  -1380  Later  /  1330  <  ICO  .1370  VG  Plant  -  Employers  will  staffs  be r u n  -  0  n  courses.  now. to  e f f i c i e n c y demands to  Employers existing  -  Locally  arrange  h e l p to  counter  vnicn  thi*.  for  through  will  encourage  Adult  Education  developed  t h e onus  specific night  staff  courses  school*  for  their  wherever  participation  poss.  in  programs.  programs  on t h e d i r t r i c t s  glare  training to  will to  be demanded  provide  putting  then.  will  More  -  The r e s u l t  pre-schools  -  T e c h n o l o g i c a l cemand f o r  .  The r e s u l t  of  There e x i s t s  -  Present Caused  -  This trends after  status  be r e q u i r e d  for  wives  by  of  a  of  increased women  in  training. society*  need f o r  upgrading  and  families.  increase as  desire  for  maintaining  grows.  desire  be u p s e t  which while  I384.  Lib.  tremendous  living  the  could  be n e e d e d .  women w i t h  trend w i l l  standard -  will  aooen't  of  re-training  " J  programs  work.  -  -  s -  Educati  necessary  -  going  'JO  1J80  will  Adult  i n vogue  demands.  Never  demand f o r  I  ~0  .157C  S. Increased c o s t of living (Consumer p r i c e index w s : 133.4 in ljn based o n I3&I u n i t o f ICO) w i l l r e s u l t in 30} o f f e c i l i e s b e i n g s u p p o r t e d oy 2 i n c o m e s ( h u s b a n d & w i f e ) .  -  ^ Later  f  -*  • .Never  UJ LU  ARE  of  wives  by a  to  major  inevitable  r e t u r n to reversal  might  not  in  work. present  occur  till  DISAGREE  3;  r>  SELECTEC POTENTIAL  Shown i n c o l u e n s 2,3, a n d « a r c t h e u p p e r a n d l o w e r q u e . r t i l e s a n d t h e n o d i a n of the group e 6 t i « M t e s . Your e a r l i e r e s t i m a t e is in r e d . In l i g h t o f t h e g r . i u p e s t i m a t e s , t h e comments i n C o l u n n 5, and the n a t u r e o f the event i t s e l f , p l e a s e eark your c u r r e n t e s t l & a t e with an " X " .  EVENTS  CY  , WHICH  FROB ROUND TWO  LIKELIHOOO OF OCCURRENCE REACHES  LIKELIHOOD OF OCCURRENCE BY J 5 8 4  w  50JJ  *J IUIPACT OK ADULT EDUCATION A N T I C I P A T E D BY OCCURS. THE SCALE USED IS AS FOLLOWS:  THE  GROUP  IF  THE  EVENT •  VG » V e r y  z  Great  G =  Great  CHANGES 03 CAUSES OF CHANGES  a  Koderate  SUGGESTED  1 1  S K  » a  Slijht  PLEASE  None  IN  ROUNO 2 ,  E V A L U A T E THESE  THE R I C H T ,  IN  ADULT  EDUCATION  ASSUMING THAT THE EVENT  COMMENTS, USING THE S C A L E  AND ADD OTHERS  THAT YCU THINK  —  OCCURS.  JJ -J  ARE  IMPORTANT.  IC.  A port,  for  all  will to  be  devoted  lifelong  opposed  n of  children  to  the  curriculum  frees K t o  12  .Never  Percerit.  specifically  learning end-goal  as  .Later  100  oriented  education.  1530  i  -1S80  < <! ~_o  .157C  12.  ]0i  will  r e - e n t e r the  at  least  of  eaployed  once  every  5  arena  years.  100  Later  <  1330  /  '50  _1J80  L.  137C  -  The r e s u l t o f u a n a g e a e n t pressure. May be n e e d f o r a c a d e a i c A d u l t E d u c a t i o n i n t e r e s t increases as o l d e r .  -  Ho r e -  A  1  J  ,  people  will  return for  continous  activities. tiae basis.  courses  learning  when  a c t i v i t i e s.  A d u l t E d u c a t i n w i l l be c o n s i d e r e d p a r t o f living l i k e bed and s l e e p t h a t i n d i v i d u a l s need and d e s i r e .  -  "Formalized" teaching  -  Recresticnal ioportance.  will  activities  decrease.  will  be t h o s e  of  greatest  In t h e o r y , t h i s c o u l d a d d t o t h e n u n b e r o f y o u n g a d u l t s s e e k i n g a c a d e a i c e d u c a t i o n t o a a k e up f o r they a i s s e d i n younger d a y s .  what  .  People w i l l r e v a l u e t h e i r " l e t " in l i f e . Create a need f o r cany a d d i t i o n a l t r a i n g progress, • o s t run through A d u l t E d u c a t i o n progress of soee s o r t .  -  Probably with job  -  D i r e c t incecase in t r a i n e e s and t r a i h o r s . Thr r e s u l t o f h i g h l y f l u i d and mobile p o p u l a c e about and c o n t i n u a l l y changing jobs.  VG  s'  " 0  C a u s e d by c h a n g i n g v a l u e s a n d l e i s u r e t i » e W i l l l e a d t o e x t e n s i v e u p g r a d i n g on a p a r t I n c r e a s e d dsraar.' f o r s e l f iaprcveaent.  I  Never  persons  training  VG  -  -  More  u p g r a d i n g w i l l be u n d e r t a k e n c o - l n c i d e n t a l l y ( with e x c e p t i o n of p r o f e s s i o n a l training).  upgrading  rcquireaents  3}  TO  ooving  d u e to t e c h n o l o g i c a l  change  1J  s> •Ji  0  DISAGREE  POTENTIAL  3) YEAR  AGREE  P)  SELECTEO  Shown i n c o l u n n a 2,3, and 4 a r o the upper and lower q u e r t i l t s and the median of the group e s t i m a t e s . Your e a r l i e r estimate is in r e d . In l i g n t o f t h o gr.-.up e s t i s a t e s , t h e comments In C o K n n 5, and the n a t u r e o f tho event i t s e l f , p l c a j o eark your c u r r e n t e s t i s a t * with an " X " .  SELECTED POTENTIAL EVENTS  3)  2}  FROU ROUND TWO  YEAR DY WX1CH LiKSLifOOO OF OCCURRENCE REACHES  LIKELIHOOD OF OCCURRENCE 3Y i 5 8 4  50JS  IMPACT CM ADULT EDUCATION A N T I C I P A T E D BY THE GROUP OCCURS.  THE SCALE  VG • V e r y G r e a t G.= G r e a t H Moderate S " Slight H » None a  USEO  IS  AS  IF  THE  EVEIJT  a.  FOLLOW:  a*  CHANGES OR CAUSES OF CHANGES IN ADULT EDUCATION SUGGESTED IN ROUND 2, ASSUUING THAT THE EVENT OCCURS. PLEASE EVALUATE THESE COMMENTS, USIHu THE SCALE TO THE R U H T , AND ADD OTHERS THAT YCU THINK ARE IMPORTANT.  ZJ CO  UJ UJ  ce  <j>  t 15. T h e r e w i l l be a 30| i n c r e . s e i n e n r o l m e n t i n t h e 30-44 y e a r s age g r ; u p in a d . e d . p u b l i c n i g h t s c h o o l programs (beyond t he normal i n c r e a s e t i e d to population).  .Never  t  Percert t .  .Later  100  -1580  -  150'  "0 -  100  Later  VG  ) " 0 L  secondary  will  school bulge  be r e q u i r e d .  will  In 17* age b r a c k e t . G r e a t e r demand f o r r e c r e a t i o n a s programs. of  hit  night  w e l l as normal  school  upgrading  I n c r e a s e need in a l l aspects (human a n d m a t e r i a l ) .  -  w i l l f r e e w.,aen t o work t h e r e b y i n c r e a s i n g t r a i n i n g o f t h e s e women. More d a y t i m e d d u l t : E d u c a t i o n o f f e r i n g s . W i l l a l l o w more i n d i v i d u a l s t o p u r s u e p a r t a n d / o r full tiat training. C a u s e d by i n c r e a s e in l a b o r f o r c e and p r e - r e u u l s i te training. The b u i l c u p o f n e e d f o r s u c h f a c i l i t i e s i s e x p e c t e d t o be f o l l o w e d by a r e v e r s a l .  -  150  .1J80  present  in c o u r s e s  resources  .. 1  J  1330  variety  -  1  Never  137C  Need f o r c o n t i n u o u s r a t h e r t h a n " o n c e i n l i f e t i m e " t r a i n i n g w i l l i n c r e a s e e n r o l m e n t i n nany d i f f e r e n t types of A d u l t E d u c a t i o n programs.  -  .137c  l6. P r o v i n c i a l l y operated c h i l d care c e n t r e s ( under 6) a n d d r o p i n c e n t r e s (6 t o 1 2 * ) w i l l be p r o v i d e d l o c a l l y .  More  VG  1330  /  -  J  UJ _J Cu LO CO  O ri  LU UJ CC  0  *x CO  a  1)  Shown In c o l u o n s 2,3, and * a r e the upper and lower q u e r t i l t s and the median of the group e s t i m a t e s . Your e a r l i e r e s t i s i t * is in r e d . ! n l i g h t o f t h e : r > u p e s t i a a t e s , t h e comments i n C o l u n n 5, and the n a t u r e of the event i t s e l f , please oarU your c u r r e n t estimate with i n " X " .  POTENTIAL FROB  3.  *)  SELECTED  YEAS  EVENTS  BY  WHICH  ROUNO TWO  LIKELIHOOO OF OCCURRENCE REACHES 5CJS  LIKELIHOOO OF OCCURRENCE BY J ? 8 *  •) IMPACT ON AOULT EDUCATION A N T I C I P A T E D 8Y THE OCCURS. VG G 23 S N  THE SCALE  * Very Great " Great » Moderate « Slight « None  L'SEO IS  AS  GROUP  IF  THE  1•  EVENT  FOLLOWS*  CHANGES OR CAUSES OF CHANGES IN AOULT E D U C A T I C N SUGGESTED IN ROUND 2, ASSUMING THAT THE EVENT OCCURS. P L E A S E E V A L U A T E THESE COMMENTS, USING THE S C A L E TO THE R I G H T , AND AOD OTHERS THAT YCU THINK ARE IMPORTANT.  UJ UJ LU CC  OJ L/"J L/O  us cc  0  -e  CO  O ft. a 21. 25$ o f » s u b c u l t u r a l ' g r o u p ( e . g . t h e p o o r , the © 1 4 , the economically, physiologically or educeticnally disadvantaged, e t c . ) , t r i l l be r e a c h e d t h r c u g h ad. ed. services*  r  .Never  P e r c e r tt.  .Later  <  100  1330  150  -lJSO  ~_0  A  VG  1  -  This w i l l r e s u l t in nore c l a s s e s , with eore a n d g r e a t e r number o f p a r t i c i p a n t s .  -  As t h e " s t a t e " moves t o w a r d g r e a t e r i n v o l v e a e n t and p l a n n i n g re the i n d i v i d u a l ' s f u t u r e , s p e c i a l e n p h a s i s w i l l be p l a c e d on t h i s g r o u p . Adult Education w i l l require greater support f r o * the govennnent to o f f e r an expanded p r o ^ r a a t o t h i s group.  -  variety  •  i  .1S7C  22. A l l organized cooounities w « i l l p r o v i d e f r e e niiij]i&iurta»ii c o u n s e l l i n g s e r v i c e s and prcgrea planning for a l l adults who d e s i r e t h e n r e g a r d i n g upgrading t h e i r e d u c a t i c n .  Never  fl  100  _L«t*r  I  .1390  <  150  .1580  " 0  1370  L  A  VG  J  -  A d a i n i s t r a t o r s , c o u n s e l l o r s , and t e a c h e r s g r e a t e r numbers.  -  F o r t h e f i r s t t i a e a l l p e r s o n s eay be a b l e t o g e t a c l e a r p i c t u r e o f where t h e i r l i v e s a r e g o i n g a n d what t h e y want f r c a l i f e . T h i s would c r e a t e a g r e a t upsurge in a l l e d u c a t i o n a l a r e a s .  •  T h i s w i l l r e s u l t in i n c r e a s e d i n t e r e s t and p a r t i c i p a t i o n in Adult Education progress service  will  be p r o v i d e d by t h e  Dept.  needed  of  in  Educatii n.  -  This  -  More a d a i n i s t r a t i v e a s s i s t a n t s n e e d e d . L o c a l A d a l t E d u c a t i o n w i l l be r e q u i r e d t o o r g a n i z e and a d m i n i s t e r c o u n s e l l i n g s e r v i c e i f they a r e expanded to the neighbourhood l e v e l .  Shown  1)  Your and  columns  the  2,3*  and  estimate  nature  of  is  the  4 arc in  event  2)  SELECTED POTENTIAL  in  earlier  LIKELIHOOD Or  8Y  WttlCH  FROU ROUNO TWO  the  upper and  In  itself,  light please  lower  of  the  stark  quertiles  gr.iup  your  and  the  estimates,  current  median  tho  estimate  of  comments with  an  the group In  Column  estimates. 5»  "X".  4) YEAH  EVENTS  red.  LIKELiKCOO OF  OCCURRENCE 8Y J364  IMPACT ON ADULT EDUCATION A N T I C I P A T E D 8Y OCCURS. VG *  OCCURRENCE  G  REACHES  50$  THE SCALE  Very  USED  IS  AS  THE GROUP  aa _j  ii »  Uodarate  SUGGESTEO  S  Slight  PLEASE  None  THE R I G H T , AND ADD OTHERS  K «  EVENT  Great CHANGES OR CAUSES OF CHANGES  »  THE  X*  Great  1  IF  FOLLOWS:  IN  ROUND 2 ,  IN  ADULT  EDUCATION  ASSUMING THAT THE EVENT  EVALUATE THESE  t—  COMMENTS, USING THE S C A L E THAT  YOU THINK  TO  UJ —1  ARE  LU aj UJ  IMPORTANT.  24.  Community  develop t  under  ion of  system  the  with  schools the  public ad.  will  adainistra-  ed.  .Never  Percer  -  X.  -  school personnel.  .Later  _1S30  . 100 -  .1380  i  2b.  50?  community both  of  schools  secondary)  (eleoentary encourage  participation  f o r m a l and  programs  will  after  e v e n i n g , a n d on  in  school,  in  weekends.  the  is  Onus  will  ( 4 100  VG  1330  type of  .137c  :°  J  will  be n e e d e d  CC  -0  <  0  UJ UJ oc 0 •<  0  X... a  for  personnel. Education  but  on  community. be on t h e  long  range  district  to  trend. co-ordinate  this  learning.  G r e a t e r community  involvement  with  schools  and  justifying  the  programs. -  This  concept  dollars  spent  is  the  best  on s c h o o l  way o f  facilities  and  using  tax  those  facilities. -  Changes Adult  will  be m a i n l y  in  the  scope and  horizon  of  Education.  -  T h e r e w i l l be more a d m i n i s t r a t i v e Education personnel.  .  P a r t i c i p a t i o n f r o m s c h o o l s In a c t i v e e n c o u r a g e m e n t of A d u l t E d u c a t i o n would c r e a t e new i n t e r e s t a n d approval. TI)ia w o u l d i n c r e a s e a c t u a l e n r o l m e n t numbers g r e a t l y .  -  f o e p u b l i c a r e r e q u e s t i n g now a n d w i l l demand i t w i t h i n a few y e a r s . Tho p a r t i c i p a t i o n c o u l d e a s i l y be i n c o r p o r a t e d w i t h i n t h e c o m m u n i t y s c h o o l c o n c e p t * t o be a d m i n i s t e r e d by t h e d i r e c t o r o f  150  .1580  training  be on A d u l t  definitely'a  This  -  I  lot  of  -  Never  Later  inforpal  will  feeling  1  -  and  Education administrative  G .  < A  .157c  background  Emphasis  VG  150  and  Hore Adult  r o =Q  OCCURS.  Adult -  Education  in  con  tasks  j u n c t i c n with  for  Adult  schools.  A d u l t E d u c a t i o n m i g h t be r e q u i r e d t o g e t more i n v o l v e d and a s s i s t in the c o r - o r d i n a t i > n .  .A  V>4  Shown i n c o l u m n s 2 , 3 , a n d 4 a r o t h e u p p e r a n d l o w e r q u a r t i l e s a n d t h e m e d i a n of the g r o u p e e t i m a t e s . Your e a r l i e r e s t i m a t e is in r e d . In l i g h t o f t h e s - ' P e s t i m a t e s , t h e comments In C o l u m n 5, a n d t h e n a t u r e o f t h o e v e n t I t s e l f , p l e a s e mark y o u r c u r r e n t : e s t i s a t e w i t h a n " X . r  u  n  SELECTED POTENTIAL  YEAR  EVENTS  3)  BY  WHICH  FROU ROUND TWO  LIKELJHOOD OF  IMPACT ON ADULT  LIKELIH000 OF  OCCURS.  OCCURRENCE 8Y J-384.  VG « V e r y  OCCURRENCE  G.  REACHES  8 »  50*  S  a  »  N »  EDUCATICN A N T I C I P A T E D 8Y  THE SCALE  USED  IS  AS  THE  GROUP  IF  THE  EVENT  •  FOLLOWS:  a.  Great  Great  CHANGES OR CAUSES OF CHANGES  aodercte  SUGGESTED  Slijht  PLEASE  None  THE R I G H T ,  IN  ROUND 2 ,  E V A L U A T E THESE  IN  ADULT  EDUCATION  ASSUUING THAT THE EVENT  COMMENTS, USING THE S C A L E  AND ADD OTHERS  THAT YOU THINK  —  ro  OCCURS.  BO  TO  ARE  UJ UJ  IMPORTANT.  a  •X  A full  time  director  (public  in  school  each  offering will  be  night  night  school  night  school)  district school  courses  appointed.  .Never .Later  _1330  Perceftt. -  <  r  . ICO - .  -  1  -1380  to e x t e n s i o n of gr?ups served.  The n a t u r a l  in  increase  provincial  w i l l g i v e more o p p o r t u n i t y Community.  VQ  150"  Present trends point t o broadening o f age  "0  for  the  school  day  and  involvement individual  in  the  T h i s w i l l o n l y happen in d i s t r i c t w i t h g r e a t a n d / c r growing p o p u l a t i o n s and would r e s u l t i n a n ; I n c r e a s e i n a d m i n i s t r a t i v e work. A much more v i t a l p r o v i n c i a l p r o g r a m w o u l d d e v e l o p .  -  There w i l l  -  E v e r y o n e i n B . C . w i l l have a c c e s s with A d u l t E d u c a t i o n s e r v i c e s .  be more  people  involved  with  -  Only f e a s i b l e i f s m a l l e r d i s t r i c t s amalgamate. L a r g e l y d e p e n d e n t on p o p u l a t i o n g r o w t h .  to  Adult  varying  Educat. degree  b  .1S7C  28. t  In-service  caching  provided  ad.  ed.  techniques for a l l  i n community  will  educators  colleges  -  Never  teaching  This  is  100  Latur  adults.  1330  VG  J  15°  -  This  will  ideal for al)  Adult -  Bay will  -  .1J80  :°  •  J  n,  provide find  A more  quality  of  Education  public  of  course  increasing  content  public  and  interest  In  effectiveness.  t h e means  by in  development teaching  training  province.  the  nc« interest  liSely  Adult  well.  no d o u b t  Education  specialty  S  as  iaporve  presentati  teacher  137C  the  school courses  be  for  which an teaching  Adult  w o u l d be t o  adults the  instructor/  as  ion.  emphasize  a regular  teaching  teacher  Educat part  certificate  the of  in  the  t-J —1 Cu LO LO  0  LU UJ CC to 0  Shown i n c o l u n n s 2,3» * n d 4 a r c t h e u p p e r ar.d l o w e r q u a r t i l e s a n d t h e m e d i a n of t h e g r o u p e s t i o a t e s . Your e a r l i e r e s t i m a t e is in r e d . In l i g h t o f t h e jr.-.up c s t i o a t t - s , t h e comments In C o l m n 5» and the n a t u r e o f t h e event i t s e l f 1 p l e a s e car'* y o u r c u r r e n t e c t i o a t e with an " X " .  1)  POTENTIAL  3)  2)  SELECTED  YEAR  EVENTS  BY  WHICH  FRCU ROUND TWO  LIKELIHOOD OF OCCURRENCE REACHES  <)  LIKELIHOOD OF  502  OCCURRENCE BY J 5 S 4  $  ISPACT ON AOULT EDUCATION A N T I C I P A T E D 8Y OCCURS.  THE SCALE  VG = V e r y  USED  IS  AS  THE GROUP  .  EVENT  a. a  Great  Great  CHANGES OR CAUSES OF CHANGES  U *  Moderate  SUGGESTEO  S  Slight  PLEASE  None  THE R I G H T ,  N «  THE  FOLLOWS:  G = =  IF  IN  ROUND 2,  EVALUATE THESE AND ADD  IN  AOULT  EDUCATION  ASSUMING THAT TKE EVENT  OCCURS.  COMMENTS, USING THE S C A L E  OTHERS  THAT YCU THINK  CO  TO  .u _j  ARE  UJ  IMPORTANT.  u> •*  32.  Co-ri<ination  of  education  services  and  level  local  instituted of  the  under  Dept.  of  at  will  adult the  r e g i o n .1  .Never  be  the  auspices  Education.  .Later  ^1330  (  -  P e r c e r z.  <  . 100  .1380  f  .1?7C  A  .  VQ  This  will  etc.,  to  in d i r e c t i o n , funding,  whole  Adult  New  interest  in  create  aorc  create  better courses,  olll  increased  Such  Adult  Education  will and -  result the  in  froa  support  the Oept.  which  trained  in  of  turn  instructors,  enrolaent.  co-ordination  assistance  Education  financial  developaent,  ooveaent.  mould  provide  programing,  Information,  and s v l i d  overlap.  i  "o 34.  A co-ordinator  services  will  inclally  through  ad.  ed.  be a p p o i n t e d the  Never  Dept.  provof  Later  -  100  Education.  I  1330  .1380  .1370  " 0  A  VG  J  1  This  will  result  in  long  needed d i r e c t i o n f r o a  on*  authority. -  teprove  -  Create channels  states  adoinistrators -  Provide avoid  of  Adult  Education.  which have up t o  this  not point  inforaation, assist  overlap.  in  been a v a i l a b l e . prograaoing  and  to  Ed.  u  LO O  UJ UJ  or •< CO  a  Shown l n c o l u o n s 2,3> and 4 a r c the upper and lower q u e r t i l e s and the a e d i a n of the group e s t i m a t e s . Your e a r l i e r e s t i m a t e is in r e d . In l i g h t o f t h e gr.-.up e s t i o a t e s , t h e comments i n C o l m n 5» and the nature of the event I t s e l f , please sark your c u r r e n t a s t i s a t e with t n " X " .  POTENTIAL  3)  *)  SELECTED  YEAR  EVENTS  BY  WICK  FROB ROUND TWO  LlKELiKCOO Or  LIKELIHOOD  I1APACT ON ADULT EDUCATION A N T I C I P A T E D BY THE  OF OCCURRENCE  OCCURS.  8Y 1334  = Very  VG  OCCURRENCE  G  REACHES  U  a  S  B  50J5  TKE S C A L E  s  N »  USED  IS  AS  GROUP  IF  THE  EVENT  •  FOLLOWS:  IS  Great  Great  CHANGES OR CAUSES  Moderate  SUGGESTED  Slijht  PLEASE  None  THE R I G H T ,  IN  OF CHANGES  ROUND 2,  EVALUATE THESE  IN  AOULT  EDUCATION  A S S U a i N G THAT THE EVENT  OCCURS.  COMMENTS, USING THE S C A L E  AND ADD OTHERS  THAT YOU THINK  5O?  night  of  operating  school  provided  programs  thr.ugh  costs  of  will  be  .Never  Percer t .  provincial  funds.  .Later  1330  -1380  ioo  K  150  .1570  37* CoQountty colleges will a b s o r b ,25? o f p r e s e n t p u b l i c school ad. ed. administrators.  4 I  !  -  Enable a g r t i t i n c r e a s e in the nueber of c o u r s e s o f f e r e d a s r n t o l e e n t n u m b e r s n o - I d n o t be t h e p r i s e f a c t o r in presenting these c o u r s e s .  -  E a s i e r to o f f e r courses a t t r a c t i n g t h e r e f o r e aore v a r i e d prograos.  -  Financial stability  -  Would p r o v i d e o p p o r t u n i t i e s t o t h o s e who w o u l d n o t p a r t i c i p a t e p r e v i o u s l y because they l i v e in s p a r s e l y populated areas.  -  More v a r i e d a n d b e t t e r p r o g r a m i n g f i n a n c i a l range of nore p e o p l e .  -  The D e p t . o f E d u c a t i o n w i l l become n o r e g r e a t l y i n v o l v e d in a d a i n i s t r a t i o n . This w i l l increase a t l e a s t change the " r e d t a p e " o f t h e j o b .  Local adainiatrators for  100  Later  <]  >  "0 1370  R e c o g n i t i o n of the p a s s i b l e . d i r e c t i > n in t e a c h e r - p u p i l r a t i o w i l l h e l p .  -  Never  1330  -  VG  would take  -  This  would r e p r e s e n t a  .  T h e r e w o u l d be  less  local  T h e r e w o u l d be  less  f l e x i b i l i t y and  -  public  This  would  resident  the  as  caoput.  decision.  autonomy. speed of  reponae  needs. presuaably  administrator  an  make t h e A d u l t  ceployee of  than the school  district  advantages  disadvantages.  and  or  districts  working  outside  political  off.  the  be s e r v i n g  of  '0  staff  students,  within  w o u l d be  part  -  college  but  few  inclusion  the " p r e s s u r e "  would s t i l l  local coanunication  for  Education  the c o l l e g e  which would have  rather both  oJ  Ui  3J  cc  —J  ARE  IMPORTANT.  3^.  Xt  TO AGREE  1)  i/>  O  u. to  0  Shown i n c o i u n n s 2,3, a n d 4 a r o t h e upper and l o w e r q u s r t i l e s a n d t h e median of the g r o u p e t t i o a t e s . Your e a r l i e r e s t i m a t e is in r e d . In l i g h t o f t h o g r o u p e s t i a a t e s , t h e comments In C o l u m n 5, a n d t h e n a t u r e o f t h e e v e n t i t s e l f , p l e a j e eart< y o u r c u r r e n t e & t i e a t e w i t h a n " X " .  YEAR  EVENTS  BY  WHICH  FROM ROUND TWO  LIKELIHOOD OF  LIKELIHOOD OF OCCURRENCE BY J S 8 4  *) IKPACT  ON ADULT EDUCATION  OCCURS.  THE SCALE  VG = V e r y  USEO  A N T I C I P A T E D 8Y  IS  AS  THE  Great  CHANGES  REACHES  U »  Moderate  SUGGESTEO  Slight  PLEASE  None  THE R I G H T , AND ADD OTHERS  •  H •  THE  EVENT  • a. 2S  G = S  IF  Great  OCCURRENCE 50$  GROUP  FOLLOWS:  OR CAUSES OF CHANGES IN  ROUNO 2,  EVALUATE THESE  IN  ADULT  EDUCATION  ASSUMING THAT THE EVENT COMMENTS,  USING THE S C A L E  THAT YOU THINK  -O  OCCURS.  ro  TO  ARE  LO Ui Ui  IHPORTANT.  CC  t 39« Community c o l l e g e s w i l l have " b r a n c h e s " i n e v e r y eooaunity in B.C. with a population of  10,000*.  _Nevcr .Later  1530  r  100  <  150  -1380  .157C  41. All universities, colleges, s c h o o l d i s t r i c t a d . e d . and r e c r e a t ion commissions will co-ordinate their a c t i v i t i e s t 0 avoid o v e r l a p of s e r v i c e s .  Never  Later  1330  -  Perceri t .  A  XJ LO LO O  T h i s w o u l d r e s u l t i n a p r o g r a m more s o p h i s t i c a t e d ) more c o s t l y , a n d l e s s responsive t o community. T h e - a d m i n i s t r a t i o n at the l o c a l l e v e l of c o l l e g e courses w i l l disappear.  -  Adult  -  W i l l sake A d u l t E d u c a t i o n a d m i n i s t r a t o r s employees o f the c o l l e g e r a t h e r than the d i s t r i c t with subsequent advantages and d i s a d v a n t a g e s .  Education services  will  be e x p a n d e d .  i  < A J. 100  -  VG  UJ  DISAGREE  POTENTIAL  ii  *)  SELECTED  VG  -  Colleges  -  T h i s would r e s u l t and wider v a r i e t y  w i l l administer  -  The a d m l n i s t r a t Ive s t r u c t u r e would c h a n g e . W o u l d r e s u l t i n more e f f i c i e n t u s e o f r e s o u r c e s w i t h i n the community.  -  This  should  in of  the  co-ordination.  increased e f f i c i e n c y of courses.  mean b e t t e r c o m m u n i t y  operation,  service.  15°  <  _ 1580  ~0  137C  J  -ft o  Shown i n c o l u o n a 2,3, a n d 4 a r o t h a u p p e r a n d l o w e r q u a r t i l e s a n d t h e m e d i a n of the group e s t i m a t e s . Your e a r l i e r e i t i s a t e is in r e d . In l i g h t o f t h e g.-oup e s t i m a t e s , t h e c o m m e n t s In C o l u m n 5, a n d t h o n a t u r e o f t h e e v e n t i t s e l f , p l e a « a mark y o u r c u r r e n t e s t J o a t e w i t h a n " X " .  1)  POTENTIAL  3;  2}  SELECTEO  YEAR  EVENTS  BY  VttlCH  FHOH ROUND TWO  LIKELIHOOD CF  LIKELIHOOD OF OCCURRENCE 8Y £ ? 8 4  IHPAC7 ON AOULT EDUCATION  A N T I C I P A T E D BY THE GROUP  OCCURS.  AS  THE S C A L E  VG = V e r y  USED  IS  G *  Great  CHANGES  REACHES  tt  Moderate  SUGGESTED  Slight  PLEASE  Ncno  THE R I G H T ,  S  3  =  H •  THE  EVENT  Great  OCCURRENCE  5056  If  FOLLOWS:  OR CAUSES OF CHANGES IN  IN  ADULT  EDUCATION  ROUND 2 , ASSUMING THAT THE EVENT  EVALUATE THESE  COMMENTS,  AND ADD OTHERS  OCCURS.  USING THE SCALE  THAT YOU THINK  TO  ARE  Ui Ul  IMPORTANT.  ac •X  43.  All  be a  shared  ad.  ed. a c t i v i t i e s responsibility  ween p u b l i c  night  and eooaunity  will  .Never  bet-  Pcrccr t .  schools .Later  colleges.  100  1330  150' -1580  ~o  4o.  Specific  progress  will  to a l l e v i a t e tedious  or  on the be  boredom  in  industrial, or  factory  jobs.  I  Later  1330  .1J80  This w i l l a f f e c t colleges programs n e c e s s a r i l y .  -  S c h o o l boards w i l l supply f a c i l i t i e s w i l l co-ordinate Adult Education.  ICO  <  -0  .1370  Would  -  result  In a n  increase  in exchange  not  Adult  of  ideas.  Education whilt  colleges  i  Never  job  developed  repetitious  A  VG  -  VG  J 1  J  This  w o u l d be t h e  result  of  sore  demand  for  upgrading. -  This  -  P o t e n t i a l change  is  involved programs.  done now  in if  industry. Adult  in a s s i s t i n g  E d u c a t i o n were t o  with and/or  be  co-ordinating  such  Ui ~i 1j L/5 CO  O  Ui Ui CC <D  •«  Shown in c o l u m n s 2 , 3 , Your e a r l i e r estimate and tho n a t u r e of the  SELECTEO POTENTIAL  EVENTS  FRCU ROUND TWO  rT  YEAR  TJ  BY  WHICH LIKELiPOOD OF OCCURRENCE REACHES  * * is in event  a n <  50g  LIKELIHOOD OF OCCURRENCE 8Y 1384  (*5  a  the upper and lower q u e r t i l c s and the n e d i a n o f the group e s t i m a t e s . red. In l i g h t o f t h e g r o u p e s t i m a t e s , t h e c o n s e n t s In Coli.no 5» i t s e l f , p l e a i e nirSi y o u r c u r r e n t e s t i m a t e w i t h a n " X " . r  c  I ".PACT ON ADULT EDUCATION  A N T I C I P A T E D 8Y  OCCURS.  AS  VG  THE S C A L E  Very  USED  IS  GROUP  IF  THE  EVENT  Great  Great  a s  CHANGES  Moderate  SUGGESTED  Slight  PLEASE  N  None  THE  S  THE  FOLLOWS:  OR CAUSES OF CHANGES IN  ROUND 2,  EVALUATE THESE  RICHT,  IN  AO'JLT  EDUCATION  ASSUMING THAT THE EVENT COMMENTS,  AND ADO OTHERS  OCCURS.  U S I N i THE S C A L E  T.MAT YOU THINK  TO  ARE  IMPORTANT.  50. Community colleges w i l l become "umbrella" institutions providing for a l l economically f easible local adult education needs.  53* Community colleges and industry w i l l "share" personnel in order that colleges can provide job training f a c i l i t i e s and programs suitable for changing employment needs in indoatr).  VG  A  G  Never Later  VG  This would result in more leadership, policy, funding, etc. Industry will s t i l l train their own eoployees. School boards will supply f a c i l i t i e s while colleges w i l l co-ordinate Adult Educat ion.  There w i l l be an increased use of para professionals. Colleges and vocational institutions w i l l become core distinct.  1330  1580 1S7C  J ro  Shown i n c o l u m n s 2,3, a n d 4 a r o t h e u p p e r a n d l o w e r q u a r t i l a s a n d t h e m e d i a n of the g r o u p e s t i m a t e s * Your e a r l i e r e s t i m a t e is in r e d . In l i g h t o f t h o g r o u p e s t i m a t e s , t h e comments i n C o l u m n 5 , and the n a t u r e o f tho event i t s e l f , p l c a i e eark your c u r r e n t e s t i m a t e with t n " X " .  2)  SELECTED POTENTIAL  3) YEAR  EVENTS  3Y  WHICH  FRCU ROUND TWO  LIKELiHCOO OF  *>  LIKELIHOOD OF OCCURRENCE  BY J384  OCCURRENCE REACHES  503  IMPACT ON ADULT EDUCATION A N T I C I P A T E D 8Y THE OCCURS.  THE S C A L E  VG = V e r y  USED  IS  AS  GROUP  EVENT  Great  I) CHANGES OR CAUSES OF CHANGES  H »  Moderate  SUGGESTED  S  Slight  PLEASE  None  THE R I G H T ,  N x  THE  CL 12  S G r e a t «  If  FOLLOWS:  IN  ROUND 2,  EVALUATE THESE  IN  ADULT  EDUCATION  ASSUMING THAT THE EVENT  COMMENTS, USING THE S C A L E  AND ADO OTHERS  THAT YOU THINK  H»  OCCURS.  CO  TO  ARE  Ui UJ CC C3  IMPORTANT.  t  UJ -J OJ  UJ Ui CC  s>  e> *c  CO 0  a  Cv_ 5*. A l l e m p l o y e e s who n e e d r e - t r a i n i n g t o c a r r y on t h e i r j o b s w i l l be p a i d by t h e i r e e p l y e r s a t t h e s a a e wage level during t h e i r r e - t r a i n i n g p e r i 3d.  i  .Never .Later  1330  I.  .1580  -  Percer t .  100  VG  A <  This  w o u l d be e c o n o m i c a l l y  Technology  will/should  be a c c e p t e d a n d  r e c o g n i z e , c o - o p e r a t e and -  This  will  result  responsibility -  Will  create a  in a l l  from  plus  feasible. encourage  increased job  use of  n*w  unions  must  re-training. load  and  technology.  need f o r a d d i t i o n a l  training  programs  areas.  1  I  .1S7C  57« University (or college) instructors will travel (based on e d u c a t i o n a l needs o f i n d i v i d e a l communities) r a t her. t han s t u d e n t s .  Navcr  Later  1530  1  100  <  .1580  1370  :°  VG  -  T h e r e w i l l be i n c r e a s e d a d m i n i s t r a t i v e regarding o r g a n i z a t i o n of classes.  -  T h e r e w i l l be e x t e n s i v e g r o w t h o f e x t e n s i o n d e p t s . of c o l l e g e s and u n i v e r s i t i e s . T h i s w i l l make i t p o s s i b l e f o r many p e o p l e t o a t t e n d eng. g r a d u a t e f r e e u n i v e r s i t i e s , s o m e t h i n g o f t e n i m p o s s i b l e f o r them t o do i n t h e p a s t .  -  \ s'  J  requirements  tn  Shown  1}  Your and  the  nature  8Y  WHICH  ROUND TWO  2,3,  and  eotisate of  is  the  LIKELIHOOO OF OCCURRENCE REACHES  50JJ  * in  event  3J YEAR  EVENTS  FROB  colons  2)  SELECTED POTENTIAL  in  earlier  LIKELIHOOD OF OCCURRENCE 8Y i ? S 4  (rf  arc- t h e red.  upper and  In  itself,  light please  of  lower  quertilts  the ^raup  etark y o u r  snd  the  estlcates,  current  estimate  IMPACT ON AOULT EDUCATION A N T I C I P A T E D BY OCCURS.  TKE SCALE  VG • V e r y G  USED  IS  AS  CHANGES OR  ti *  Moderate  SUGGESTEO  S  Slight  PLEASE  None  THE R I G H T ,  =  K »  of  with  THE  the In  an  "X".  GROUP  IF  group  estimates.  Colunn  THE  5,  EVENT  FOLLOWS:  0. 31  Great  Great  a  acdian  t h e comments  CAUSES OF CHANGES IN  ROUNO 2,  IN  ADULT  EDUCATION  ASSUMING THAT THE EVENT  E V A L U A T E THESE  COMMENTS, USING THE S C A L E  AND ADD OTHERS  THAT YOU THINK  H-  Ul  ARE  UJ UJ  ce  •*  a  The " o p e n "  58. In  order  resident  will to  university  be  icopleoented  reach aore  students  »t  .Never  Percerit.  -  This  will  -  This  is  u  non  less  c  ost.  I  r  VS  .Later  100  -  be a  the  political  result  of  decision.  the changing  role  of  the  niversity.  This  presents  Valley's  next  an untapped college  source  will  of  probably  students.  Fraser  start  this  with  concept.  1350  -  Potentially  -  This  added  load to  out  of  the  way  districts.  <  150  .1580  ~0  .1570  o2.  Universities  post  graduate  graduation) out  the (b)  of  hold  seainars  In  of  8.C.  (a)  Never  t  i I Loter  a  100  eorrespondene e  weekly  less  through  through  travelling  who w i l l  extend  (university  education  province  eoablnation ana  will  professors week  populated  end areaj  .155-0  150  .1580  " 0  1370  »  VG  -  will  heir  result  extension  The t i a e t a b l i n g conjunction - i t h for  -  Hany Onus  In  sore  universities  developing  divisions. of  courses  will  l o c a l needs,  be p l a n n e d  not  in  necessarily  just  weekends.  often  CO  TO  IMPORTANT.  concept  ID  OCCURS.  people  w i l l a t t e n d and graduate  Impossible will  i n the  be u p o n d i r e c t o r s  co-ordinate  this  -  eaaethlng  past.  extension  of  Adult  service.  Education  to  _J O) L/J  to 0  UJ  oc e>  -r  CO  Shown i n c o l t a n s 2,3, a n d < arc- t h e u p p e r a n d l o w e r q u a r t i l e s a n d t h e s o d i a n of the group e e t i o a t e s . Your e a r l i e r e s t i » a t e is in r e d . In l i g h t o f t h e g r o u p e s t i o i t t s , t h e e o a m e n t s In C o l u n n 5, and the n a t u r e of the event i t s e l f , p l e i j c oark your c u r r e n t e s t i o a t e with an " X " .  1)  2)  SELECTEO POTENTIAL EVENTJ  YEAR BY V.Vi 1CH LIKELIHOOO OF OCCURRENCE REACHES 50S  F R O * ROUNO TWO  3) LIKELIHOOD OF OCCURRENCE BY J-?34  (rf  *) IMPACT ON AOULT EDUCATION OCCURS.  THE SCALE USED  VG Very Great G * Great ii kSoderate S • Slight N « None  IS  A N T I C I P A T E D 8Y THE GROUP AS  IF  THE EVENT a.  FOLLOWS:  _->  1  a  CHANGES OR CAUSES OF CHANGES IN AOULT EDUCATION SUGGESTED IN ROUND 2, ASSUMING THAT TKE EVENT OCCURS. P L E A S E EVALUATE THESE COMMENTS, USING THE SCALE TO THE RIGHT, AND ADD OTHERS THAT YCU THINK ARE IMPORTANT.  _3  co  cc  -< t>4. A prerequisite te e l l e o p l o y o e n t w i l l be c l a u s e * w r i t t e n into a l l working • greeoents that upgrading or r e t r a i n i n g w i l l be o f f e r e d to a l l t h o s e whose p o s i t i o n s a r e phased out through t e c h n o l o g i c a l progress.  i'  .Never .Later  100  1S90  <  -  Percerit.  150  -lJSC  4  Never  Later  100  VG  J.  1390  M >  S  " 0  m .1970  J  w i l l be n e e d e d l o c a l l y f o r  -  U n i o n s o u s t '•« made t o s e e t h e n e c e s s i t y - n 0 - a o r e "featherbedding", "grandaother" clauses, e t c . P o s s i b l e i n c r e a s e in nusber of d u r s e s to undertake t h i s upgrading f o r s s a l l e r businesses.  -  of  union  retraining.  T h i s w i l l be t h e r e s u l t  VG  1  . 157C  More c o u r s e s  -  deaands.  UJ  Ul  QJ  cc  -I UJ Ul  to LO O  UJ 0  CO  0  APPENDIX E  Completed graphed s t a t i s t i c a l  indicat  r O B I a-,ser,srccni O T m o I ' n p u c i 01 each r t . i son j i v e n b e l o w r e l a t i v e t o t 'i e f o r e c a s t sho-m ( b y i) i  With  a  The r e  shorter will  be  work  week more  increased  r t ua 1 if I mpo i s I b I« L i t t l e o r no ni fect A pr i me f1c t or  V I  people  secondary  will  be e m p l o y e d ,  production  based  on  especially primary  women  industry  M a r g i n a l f a r m e m p l o y m e n t w i l l become p r o p o r t i o n a t e l y l e s s i m p o r t a n t o v e r a l l employment p i c t u r e a s t e r t i a r y i n d u s t r y d e v e l o p s  Many  unemployed a r e  ^j-S-r* P o p u l a t i D O  increase  1  100  75  25  in 100  22  88  75  25  33  ^7  unemployable  33  67  generally  75  23 1  —l  !  1—r-rrfW  Reduct Post  ion  of  war baby  number o f bulge  children  moving  per  through  family  the o v e r a l l  figures  77  33|  72  28;  -N3  ,13-tn.irt the s 1 1 i ' , t i c<> 1 trends ( t o l i d l i n e s ) , _:roop fleaiin f j r ^ c i s ! (dashed l i n e s ) , and the q u i r t i l e r i n j e (--.naded a r e a ) .  Panel 3 ',s«is^t:nt of the impact of each re* ion j i v e n below r e l a t i v e to the t a r e c i s t shown (by (,) i  the inter  V i r t u a l l y impossible L i t t l e or no e f f e c t ' A prime f j c t o r  ~x, INOI.ATOR  THRFF-i  INCREASE  1..  IN NUMBER EMPLOYED FEMALE  100 More women w i l l p a r t i c i p a t e i n l a b o r m a r k e t a s t r e n d t o w a r d ( a ) r o l e a s homemaker a n d ( b ) o f f a m i l y a s a u n i t d e c r e a s e s Number o f f e m a l e s Y\  with  employed  number a v a i l a b l e  will  far self  Better  family  s  r  Concerted Most  aligned 81  working  outside  in  93  industry  100  t h e home  of  Women g r o u p s  re-enter labor  force after  time  change  of Status  jobs  raising  .75  families  20  available  t o t h e more  traditional  family  10  unit  (Vancouver)  Vancouver w i l l  High  more c l o s e l y  planning  efforts  few part  Drastic  H i ah  fulfillment  women w i l l  Too  to a poini  <3l  t o work  Greater acceptance of females °« ' «  increase  importance of  maintain  i t s p resent  percentage of t o t a l  population  increasit  50  (Rossland)  Many s m a l l Shift  communities  to suburban  have g r o w t h  or to r u r a l  patterns  residential  exceeding living  Vancouver  with  u r b a n work  67 30  A s e n s e o f " c o m m u n i t y " w i l l be f o s t e r e d i n a l l a r e a s , r e s u l t i n g i n s t a b i l i z i n g o f p o p u l a t i o n s a s a r e s u l t o f Human R e s o u r c e s B o a r d s Regional  districts  about  some  Rural  populations  will  urbanizati will  exert  greater  n to r u r a l shift  i n f l u e n c e and c o n t r o l ,  bringing  33  areas  f r o m one  small  community  to another  22  Sho-n  a r e the s H: r. I icn1  group  neoiin  for?ci'..i  quart i l a .range  trends  (da sited  (shaded  ^solid  lines),  Panel  lines), the and the  each  inter  to  arei).  assessment reason  ot t h e impact  given  the f o r e o s t  below  sho*n  ot  Virtually  relative  Little  impossible  or  no  effect '  A prime  (by f ) i  factor  -jJL INDICATOR F I V E i  12 11  ••'  ; r  NUMBER  i  1  i ! I •!i "  tr  ! i |  -l-H-H "I'I:  9  it-ki-  .7  1  h"  I+H-  --•j -j -1—--j- >^^ti  :  !  !  1  . /  - ! - ! - [ - • •  3  N.S.  !  SYSTEM  - -j- . | _ . . .  -  •j j-j-u- T \  3 2 1 0  41  \  • > -!•••-{••  -r  r f f 'f •  i  ;  i t  - •-(—  ;J_  -H-  i  -|-  !  I  ; i ; t i  1  ... . . .  ... J  J '1 ' ' i <•I i • -I~ \-\ .;._;..]., 4 ! i-h •ri-r •!" -i-l--H- —i— ; i i i M i _l_ H-T !•• -i-U-l-j- | - | 1 1 " - -i-i-l-f' —1— • H r t l f H - •|-{;j | r ..i.j_.ui-4: ....  t ! : ! | - ^ - - j r  • rVS;  -i- r-j-i-i- X1  -  -f-  .  i  i  Result  of  s e r v i n g many control population  districts  cannot  be a s  e f f e c t i v e as  local  or  will  increase,  Criteria dictating a t t i t u d e supports  t h e number o f i n s t r u c t o r s i s e c o n o m i c a l . more i n s t r u c t o r s t h e y w i l l be a p p o i n t e d .  Community  will  while  When  16  20  70  10  70  30  70  30  school  increase  Demand f o r c o u r s e s b e y o n d r e g u l a r s c h o o l h o u r s t r a d i t i o n a l 3 to 3 approach is d i s c r e d i t d d  53 31  the  public  50  1  t  -  T  bb  71  ADMINISTRATORS  IN  PUBLIC  colleges  continue  to  absorb  school  58  25  17  province  75  lb  9  local  58  25  171  district  programs  84  7°  YEAR  NUM9ER  {  A college district  to  +  i  rrrr01  SIXt  —1~—i—1  High S c h o o l d i s t r i c t a d u l t e d u c a t i o n i s more e c o n m i c a l a n d more e f f i c i e n t o p e r a t e than any o t h e r s y s t e n o f a d u l t e d u c a t i o n s  . j.  ;  4  I  |  •  •- ! - ! ii • ; m l - - !'- H' i • ' i T f l ' "l" 1 H-hf- i  i-fHt  b  PU8LIS  : i._.L!  |  10  | i  IN  "TV  i  1  s  INSTRUCTORS  NIGHT  SCHOOLS  .. !,j X'X^^  Adult  education  Department xpansi  of  n of  for  a  of  community  will  more o f  will  responsibility  colleges  Co-operation  becoming  Education  co-ordination  Community  is  take a from  life  style  renewed  strictly  in  interest  adult  the in  educati  n to  control include  84  schools  absorb  between a g e n c i e s  smaller  a  time a l l o t m e n t  a  number o f  administering  existing adult  from a d m i n i s t r a t o r s  administrators  education to a d u l t  will  present  there are  a  r e s t r i c t e d number o f  administrative  33  22  67  b8  32  allow  education  activities At  6l  opportunities  11  Srio-n a r t  the s t a t i s t i c a l (orccist  trends  (dasr.ed  (shad'id  (solid  lines),  Panel  lines)  each  and t h e  to  area).  a ististeil reason  t'ne  forecast  Regional  of  given  shown  districts  community  t h e impact  below  (by  districts  Ultimately removed the  trend  from  the  will will land  V i r t ua 1 l y Little  i uposs i b l e  o r no  I) i  d i f f e r and  needs/desires  A  each  within  Community c o l l e g e s w i l l e d u c a t i o n programs School  of  relative  the  institution resources  increasingly  offers  of  that  administer  courses  effect' prime  to  factor  meet  institution  more o f  total  331  adult 72  continue  to  amalgamate  be d e c i d e d on a n then  there  will  ^7  econraic b a s i s . be  less  If  concern as  education to  who  tax  is  33  does  job  331  .INDICATOR EIGHT;  ENROLMENTS TERMINAL  POST.SEC.  CAREER  12 il 10  _; .[-;..;._ i  9 - • ;.-(—-i~  8  7  !  .-; ;r|n -|- i-  >. -\ -  ; •r ; i — j I- i- •i H f r r  T ..!.;.-  J; 1 :  1  i  1  j 4-  :  •i  '  i j -'"!1 i- i —" 1  tJ  1  • - ! • ! - ! ••!•  j  i  "II- 11' i ' i-i!  i  -H-  • l -i-l-  ..1  j  :  ( i •;i  <  :  ' 1  iI .i i•  bb  \1  YEAR  /Ti  •  - fi !1 - • i - •  f  ~\\  :H  i  L ' r-;TI 1  71  i -  $  if44  "  •It  1  :  -i ; 1 • i j• u  ...).  ! 1 I-  1 1  ! 1  -! i  T e c h n o l o g i c a l change  ^•-Community advanced  i, 1 i !-U jit 4J "1  w  i i i ' ' i ' ' ' -!-.-  5 !  -! i -  ... L \/. •\  i I  | • : :  Hijh  1 i.l |  -|-+1t tit fl+H i i.| ! i  i - 1 -. ! ..f.. -Ii !  T'i~ .UL.  T E C H . OB  V . t 4.. ..J_  4 i-  H  67  PROGRAMS  j If  !' i  NON U N I V .  28  4  — * — ! — » - 4- i ' i' 7<>  1 !  4 "ir•  1  -+  i  1 84  will  demand  colleges w i l l continue university training  more their  specialized r o l e as  training  offering  preparation  100 for 72  28  .iowniieoiin I ;  a r e if>e s t i . u u c i l  jroup  quirt i l e ranje  INEi  orica it  (shad»d  irenos  (diM'.til  Isoiid lines),  lines),  Panel  tne  and the  each  inter  to  arei).  PART TIME ACAPEMIS (UN I V . TRANSFER) IN COMMUNITY COLLE3ES  riMson  asj'isncit  o t t h e impact  jiven  the forecast  below  shown  ot  Virtually  relative  Little  impossible  o r no e f f ? c t •  (by i ) i  A  prime  fictor  ENROLMENT  H i ah Increased l e i s u r e income s e c u r i t y Enhanced  -2 5  Lower  C 0) TJ 3  4  o  3  adults  to  learn  for  interest  rather  than  community  colleges  f o r academic  25 75  excellence  33 67  structure of  more  4 - ^ - L-'SA  C «  LQ  new c o l l e g e s  will  provide  greater  academic  opportunity  Academic  - 1  Most a r e a s  o  courses in  Colleges w i l l programs  T E N ; N . S . ENROLMENT  IN TECHNICAL/VOCATIONAL  led  W  in n D C  13  81  " ''[ j  iff  INOICATOR  allow  r e p u t a t i o n at  fee  ' \ '•, ' Pi C r e a t i o n  »  will  will  the  not  be d e g r e e  province  continue  do  or  job  oriented  |100  not  have  this  college  to a t t r a c t  part  time  students  facility into  a  variety  of  5° I  SCHOOLS  High Specialization Colleges ^S:?-'rff5  Job  possess  incentives  Increased Related grow  will  l e a d many  to  better training  will  technology  encourage and  to a v a i l a b i l i t y  (particularly  upgrade  educational number  resources)  in smaller  employab  opportunities  increased of  for  'out  than  school  districts  in  labor  t h e way'  equipment. so  As  facilities  will  90 10  enrolment More  special  project  and  private  sector  upgrading of  adult  on  the  job  i n company  time,  8  ^ 75| 25|  force  districts)  9  63 37 92  upgrading  p e o p l e , and  of  91  ility  both  in  public  75 25  education  Low Empliyees own  will  expense  be  expected to  "qualify"  for  higher  appointments  at  their  12 55  T,hojn a r e t h e s t » t i i t i c a 1 ' t r e n d s ( s o l i d l i n e s ) , :ro.jp a c a i i n for.-c.ast (dashed l i n e s ) , and the quart i l e range (shaded area).  INDICATOR E L E V E N :  UN I VERS I T I E S ' O P E R A T I N G / C A P I T A L  the inter  P a n e l a .ssecstft-nt o f t h e i m p a c t o f each r e a j o n g i v e n below r e l a t i v e t o t h e f o r e c a s t shown ( b y £)i  Virtually impossible L i t t l e o r no e f f e c t ' A prime  factor  1  EXPENDITURES  Operating  costs  Inflation a Proportion  will  nd an of  rise,  while  increasing  total  number o f  demand  for  the  money a l l o c a t e d  for  education  L e s s e m p h a s i s on e x p a n s i o n o f b u i l d i n g s , " r e c y c l i n g " of present f a c i l i t i e s The  centralized  graduates  instiution  concept  is  best  per s e ,  rapidly  Community c o l l e g e s w i l l r e c e i v e i n c r e a s i n g l y f u n d i n g f o r post sec ndary e d u c a t i o n  of  will  4b  decrease  become more  a n d more  emphasis  constant  University Tied  to  heir  policies  population appeal  University Vocational,  to  must  to  include  increase, although  the  concept  expand  amounts  of  provincial  72 U 22  t o t a l coverage  universities  have  in  the  lost  a  province  great  deal  become  t e c h n o l o g i c a l and  28  33 3 55 23 b  83 17 ofj the|  75 25  young  has  Ifl  37 *3  M o r e e m p h a s i s on p e o p l e t h a n on s t r u c t u r e s P e o p l e w i l l d e s i r e t r a i n i n g i n t h e i r own l o c a l e s P r e s e n t p u b l i c image o f t h e " a v e r a g e " u n i v e r s i t y s t u d e n t  £]  50 33  on  decreasing larger  24  90 10  equipment  will  30  irrelevant career  to  large  programs  will  masses o f be more  the in  population  demand  30 fco10 87 13  S"o«m a r e the s t a t i s t i c a l t r e n d s ( s o l i d l i n e s ) , t h e group meoiin f o r e c a s t (dashed l i n e s ) , and the i n t e r o u a r i i l e range (shaded a r e a ) .  INDICATOR THIRTEEN;  g.B.C'S  P a n e l a s s e s s m e n t o f t h e impact o f each r e a i g n g i v e n b e l o w r e l a t i v e t o t h e f o r e c a s t shown (by $) x  V i r t u a l l y impossible L i t t l e o r no e f f e c t " A prime f a c t o r  DEPARTMENT ADULT ED. ENROLMENT  5oo Industrial  4 00  demand  for  Many more  will  number o f  offerings  enter  trained the  personnel  f i e l d as  adult  education  gains  recognition  increase  and  4b  5*  80  20  the  300  200  The  100  YEAR  T T  • -f-H  ..L  •-H-  "i"t"  '."JLT  -i-4-  .4.._:_.  .Li: - i - »! 4-i -; -  L.  i ;  tft  -i  -4- 4 - ! -  -! -f-1-S—  -i-l-  V •M-i-i-r-i  ..U:-.l.i-U  -l-t-  -•; -I-  -L.  •f -H+i H-  •H—I-  .i—u_i  -I  _JU  initial  inertia  against  trained adult  educators  is  too  great  87  13  APPENDIX F  Completed tables of 24- events selected as most important to future of adult education.  -VENT:; S E U ' d - D  YEAH STY I'iOOO PC5;  s.'i i X r .  'J  I U. E.V. NT:;  I. I M L l'li.100 or  IMPORTANT  TO ADULT  iDUCATION  IMPACT ON AD'JI T EDUCATION AN fI 0 I '-'A ! ~0 BY I ME 3H0UP I." TKf t:VLSI OCCURS.  UCCIJHKENCE  ,f  VL] » Very ,>f.'. t G - Cr .-J t M - M.uiirrJ t *  •-•CC  s •:. i ; 1  N  1. V o c a t i o n a l t r a i n i n g w i l l be p r o v i d e d a t no c o s t t o a l l t h o s e who a r e u n e m p l o y e d b u t e m p l o y a b l e .  AS MOST  Never 4 t er lr.oo 1J34  x  jht  V..  Local adult education w i l l vocational classes.  A S  (  ; C N T  VlLIOITY  jt  MELA i I V E  TO IHE  SHO«'.  None  probably  of T H E ITEM  LACH  FORECAST  (by  be c a l l e d o n t o p r o v i d e  u  W i l l r e s u l t i n m e r e l y more e f f i c i e n t o p e r a t i o n o f e x i s t i n g f a c i l i t i e s a n d more g e n e r a l a w a r e n e s s The r e s u l t o f i n c r e a s e d t e c h n o l o g y a n d s h o r t e r work w e e k . 80 F a c i l i t i e s w i l l have t o be p r o v i d e d a n d i n s t r u c t o r s t r a i n e d within approved a r e a s . 59 If t h e r e i s not e x t e n s i v e l o c a l s u p p o r t , t r a v e l l i n g s t u d e n t ^ w o u l d become n e c e s s a r y * T h e r e w i l l be more r e - t r a i n i n g o f women •• I n d u s t r y w i l l become more a u t o m a t e d t h e r e f o r e t r a i n i n g w i l l be e s s e n t i a l t o k e e p p a c e . 9*  * 100  38  4  15s 0  88  1370  3. Most e m p l o y e r s w i l l f i n d v a l u e i n a d u l t e d u x a t i o n a s a management tool.  More  demand  Upgrading  rlCO  4 Zi 50  1384  (•AN:, i.  CHAN 3t J 0« C A U ^ S OF CHAN Of IN «DUl J E O ' J C A T ION I- THE E V E N T OCCUKS  for adult  is  education courses.  i n vogue n o w '  36 50 20  41 56  S3  12  63  31  T h i s w i l l be n e c e s s a r y t o h e l p t o c o u n t e r u n i o n d e m a n d s . 35 53 |>lant e f f i c i e n c y demands t h i s • °3 3 Employers w i l l arrange f o r s p e c i f i c courses f o r t h e i r s t a f f t o be r u n t h r o u g h n i g h t s c h o o l , w h e r e v e r p o s s i b l e * 182 | 121 Employers w i l l encourage s t a f f p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n e x i s t i n g A  a d u l t education programs* L o c a l l y d e v e l o p e d p r o g r a m s w i l l be demanded on t h e d i s t r i c t s t o p r o v i d e t h e m .  7* putting  1^91  t h e onu ]\ | 2 3 |  13?0  8. Increase cost of l i v i n g w i l l r e s u l t in f i f t y percent of f a m i l i e s b e i n g s u p p o r t e d by two i n c o m e s .  V3  More t r a i n i n g work .  programs  will.be  r e q u i r e d f o r wives  going  to 94  6  I9.IO  More p r e - s c h o o l s w i l l be n e e d e d 81 19 The r e s u l t o f Women's l i b . 29] 50 T e c h n o l o g i c a l demand f o r i n c r e a s e d t r a i n i n g » 81 19 The r e s u l t o f s t a t u s o f women i n s o c i e t y . 5^1 41 T h e r e e x i s t s a t r e m e n d us need f o r u p g r a d i n g a n d r e - t r a i n i m women with families.7-| 23 Present trend w i l l increase as desire f o r maintaining  1370  standard of l i v i n g growsC a u s e d by t h e d e s i r e >f w i v e s t o r e t u r n t o w o r k T h i s c o u l d be u p s e t by a m a j o r r e v e r s a l i n p r e s e n t t r e n d s w h i c h w h i l e i n e v i t a h l e m i g h t n o t o c c u r t i l l a f t e r 158*..  1334  1 7 ' 18 | ]l\ 23 1^7] * o J33 A  2  V'.-.Tt BY  EVENTS  4  LIKELIHOOD •or  <"• I'JH  SELECT-0  AS  KOST  ADULT  IMPACT  ON  if  CVITNI  m r  IMPORTANT  TO A D U L T  COUCATION  (Cont'd.)  EDUCATION  A N f 10 I'-'AT"0 iiV T H E © 1 9 U P  ccct.  oCCt-WENCE  L l-.LI.  0  r.  in  f - C . ' - M 1 <t. : . v : . M 3  VS »  Very  G -'  Great  Jr,-.l t  P A N . L AS'iEIV'V,L"NI 01;  CHAN.;-.:;  M = Mod era te  CHAN;?  IN  S  If  EVENT  *"  H *  Slight  1 HL  OF  CAU--.::;  A O U l 1 C i n i C A 1 ION OCCUiiS  VALIDITY  0> 1.ACH  H E LA i 1 V L  TO  blK^N  (by  !)iE  -;f  nic  •  ITEM 1 CHE C A S T  tai  l)  None  l.J  *  f ','  uausea 10.  A  for  all  be  portion  of  children  devoted  the  curriculum  from  K to  s p a c i f t e a 1lv  long  learning  as  goal  oriented  education.  12  to  opposed  .ater  life-  to  va  Je v e r  will  I  100 •50  1380  1370  1  l  end-  0  Will  oy  lead  Incrared The  result  May  be  lore  J J  to of  need  Adult  for  will that  will  be  Recreational  activities  seeking in  time  -r  il.  S8  12 22 22  basis  50  education  continuous  onsidered  courses  when  if  activities-  living  like  bed  desire-  decrease.  will  add  learning  part  need and  will  could  academic  younger  adult  individuals  this  part  pressure.  for  teaching  theory,  activities.  oloer,  "Formalized" In  on a  Time  improvement-  academic as  leisure  upgrading  self  return  education  sleep  ana  management for  increases  people  and  values  extensive  demand  interest  A  cnangmg  be  to  education  those  the  to  of  greatest  number o f  make  up  importanc  young  for  what  missed  days*  44  T  O . b  11 b  78 22 83 17 44 40  44 12 fao  ' *7  adults  they  t. '  1; -'  12  41  10  50 40  There w i l l  15. in  enrolment  age  group  night  adult  school  normal  in  be a  education  programs  increase  increase  30$  30-44  the  tied  Never  years public  (beyond to  Vi  Later  the  ICO  !  More  variety  Need  for  of  education  17+ 5  • 1370 Provincially centres  in c e n t r e s provided  (  operated  (under 0  to  k)  12*)  and will  child Never  drop be  Later  locally.  . I330 . lJ.'U  I• '  <  Va  10c  required.  than  "once  enrolment  in  lifetime"  i n many  different'  types  9*  programs-  school  bulge  will  hit  night  school  in  bracketdemand need  for  r e c r e a t i o n as  in a l l  aspects  of  well as normal  upgrading  resources  programs  (human  and  Will  free  women t o  work  thereb  y  increasing  training  of  the  More  daytime  Will  allow  adult  more  education  individuals  pursue  part  and/or  full  time  tra ining • Caused The  by  buildup  followed  !  increase of  by a  need  in  labor  for  such  reversal-  f o r c e and  p r e - r e au i s i t e  facilities  3  57  73 22 b  offerings* to  b  59 (1 75 25 b  women »  • 50  0 137c  be  J  ^100  . L  age  rather  increase  secondary  will  m a t e r i a 1) ..  ^0  l6.  adult  Increase  1^0  care  continues will  Greaier  ," °  courses  training Present  population.  in  is  expected  trainin to  be  88  2  6  5* 17 77 50 18 32 e  2  YE Art  srutv ,T I »L  E V.  NT:;  LIKELIMOOO CF  BY 1'iOCD  •J occ  SC.J  MLS  22. A l l organized communities w i l provide free "neighbourhood" c o u n s e l l i n g s e r v i c e s and program p l a n n i n g f o r a l l a d u l t s who d e s i r e them r e g a r d i n g upgrading t h e i r educat i o n .  E V E N TS  4  SELLCT-0  IMPACT IF IME  O N ADUI T EOL JATION EVENT O C C U R S .  TO ADULT EDUCATION  A N1  I C I' A ! E O  (Oont'd)  BY T H E  j  G'rt'lUP  Very  Oreal t MuJera t r Slight None  (0  Cr  C  J  CHAN:r ;  on C A I S I E S  :  CHANGE I* T H E  P A N E L ASsrr,;.;y;!:.NT C F I H E ; V A L I D I T Y or E ^ C H ITEM RCLAIIVE T 3 1 H E FORECAST  or  I NA D U L T EOUCATION E V E N T OCCURS  A  1.135-°  (by  KHO.N  Administrators, c u n s e l l o r s , numbers *  ter  and  f)  teachers  needed  in  greater 881  F o r t h e f i r s t t i m e a 11 p e r s o n s may be a b l e t o g e t a c l e a r p i c t u r e o f where t h e i r l i v e s a r e g o i n g a n d what t h e y want from l i f e . T h i s would c r e a t e a great upsurge in a l l educa t i o n a 1 a r e a s • 45 T h i s w i l l r e s u l t in i n c r e a s e d i n t e r e s t and p a r t i c i p a t i o n in a d u l t e d u c a t i o n programs' T h i s s e r v i c e w i l l be p r o v i d e d by t h e D e p a r t m e n t o f E d u c a t i o i J More a d m i n i s t r a t i v e a s s i s t a n t s n e e d e d * L o c a l a d u l t e d u c a t i o n w i l l be r e q u i r e d t o o r g a n i z e a n d 75 a d m i n i s t e r c o u n s e l l i n g s e r v i c e i f they a r e expanded t o the neighbourhood level*  B  1J34  i960  1370  IMPORTANT  CUHHEKCS;  Never  Li  AS MOST  -  0  45 23 271 l  5  31  63 More b a c k g r und a n d t r a i n i n g w i l l be n e e d e d f o r a d u l t education administrative p e r s o n n e l ' E m p h a s i s w i l l n o t be on a d u l t e d u c a t i o n b u t on f e e l i n g  24. Community s c h o o l s will d e v e l o p under the a d m i n i s t r a t i o n o f the p u b l i c s c h o o l s y s t e m w i t h a dult education personnel.  ,100  50  59  35  60  25  52  35  of  community T h i s is d e f i n i t e l y a long range t r e n d * . Onus w i l l be on t h e d i s t r i c t t o c o - o r d i n a t e t h i s t y p e of learning . . T h i s c o n c e p t i s t h e b e s t way o f j u s t i f y i n g t h e t a x d o l l a r s s p e n t on s c h o o l f a c i l i t i e s a n d u s i n g t h o s e f a c i l i t i e s . C h a n g e s w i l l be m a i n l y i n t h e s c o p e a n d h ; r i z o n o f a d u l t educat i c n .  94 50  27  82  D  1370 There w i l l  26. F i f t y i of schools w i l l e n c o u r a g e c ommunity p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n b ot h f e r m a l and i n f e r n a l p rograms a f t e r s c h o o l , in the e v e n i n g , a n d on w e e k e n d s .  be  education Part 100  adult This The  50  a the  icipation  educat  and a s s i s t  1370  The  in a c t i v e  create  requesting  for  adult  new  enc uragement  interest  enrolment  and  numbers  of  approval.  7  greatly  now and w i l l  demand  it  withinj  p a r t i c i pat i c n c o u l d  easily  be  incorporate d  community  d i r e c t o r of  Adult  would  increase actual  few y e a r s . the  tasks  88  from schools  education would  public are  within  more a d m i n i s t r a t i v e  personnel*  school  adult  ion might  concept,  education  to  in c o n j u n c t i o n  b e r e q u i r e d to  in the c o - o r d i n a t i c n .  be a d m i n i s t e r e d get  b y  s c h o o l s . ] 50 involved  38  70  24  with  more  0 24  j  2*  Y E AR BY -'•! i o n I NEE I'lOOy :.F  •NT I U.  EVENTS S E L E C T E D  LIKELIHOOD OF OCC-.'HuENCE <M !jH4  REACHES  'IMPORTANT  TO AOULT EDUCATION  (Cont'd.)  IMPACT ON A Dli Ei)Ui;V; ION ANTIOI'-MIEO HY THE -JKOUP I " THE EVEN I OCCURS.  VO *  OCCwRULNOE  AS MOST  Very . ' . r - i t Ore a t Vadera t e  CHAN SEC OR C A U S E . ' ? OF CHAN'IE | N ADUl T EDUCATION  Sli.jht  I?  PA'.L L 'ASIC E-i'r.EiN T OF  THE EVENT OCCilRS  None  V3  27. A f u l l time n i g h t s c h o o l d i r e c t o r (public night school) in each s c h o o l d i s t r i c t o f f e r i n g n i g h t s c h o o l c o u r s e s w i l l be a ppo i n t e d .  1 100 50  32. C o - o r d i n a t i c n of a d u l t e d u c a t i o n s e r v i c e s at the r e g i c n a l a n d l o c a l l e v e l w i l l be i n s t i t u t e d under the a u s p i c e s of the Department of E d u c a t i o n .  •ICO  |Present  trends  point  to  THE  V U . 101 TY 0- EACH: ITEM HEI.A1 IVE T J THE FORECAST SHOWN (by f)  extension  of  school  day  and  to  ' b r o a d e n i n g o f age g r o u p s s e r v e d The n a t u r a l i n c r e a s e i n p r o v i n c i a l i n v o l v e m e n t w i l l g i v e more o p p o r t u n i t y f o r t h e i n d i v i d u a l i n t h e c o m m u n i t y * Th i «r w i l l o n l y happen i n d i s t r i c t s w i t h g r e a t a n d / o r growing p o p u l a t i o n s and w-uld r e s u l t i n an i n c r e a s e i n a d m i n i s t r a t i v e work A much more v i t a l p r o v i n c i a l p r o g r a m w o u l d d e v e l o p T h e r e w i l l be more p e o p l e i n v o l v e d w i t h a d u l t educationE v e r y o n e i n B . C . w i l l have a c c e s s t o v a r y i n g d e g r e e w i t h adult education s e r v i c e s * Only f e a s i b l e i f smaller d i s t r i c t s amalgamate* L a r g e l y d e p e n d e n t on p o p u l a t i o n g r o w t h *>  32  information,  assistance  14  50 |31  1$  71) 6 23 77! 23  le  82 41  h  T h i s w i l l r e s u l t in d i r e c t i o n , funding, development, e t c . t o t he w h o l e a d u l t e d u c a t i o n movement •> New i n t e r e s t i n a d u l t e d u c a t i o n f r o m t h e D e p a r t m e n t o f E d u c a t i o n w i l l c r e a t e more f i n a n c i a l s u p p o r t w h i c h i n t u r n , w i l l c r e a t e b e t t e r c o u r s e s , t r a i n e d i n s t r u c t o r s , and increased enrolment* S u c h c o - o r d i nat i o n w o u l d p r o v i d e programming, and a v o i d o v e r l a p *  14  in  52 40  29  7'I 83 82  7 6  18  11 181  1370 3*. A c o - o r d i n a t o r of adult e d u c a t i o n s e r v i c e s w i l l be a p p o i n t e d p r o v i n c i a l l y t hrough t he D e p a r t m e n t o f E d u c a t i o n .  100  1334 19 HO  1370  L50  T h i s w i l l r e s u l t in long needed d i r e c t i o n f r o j one a u t h o r i t y .• Improve s t a t u s of a d u l t e d u c a t i o n • C r e a t e c h a n n e l s w h i c h have n o t b e e n a v a i l a b l e t o a d m i n i s t r a t o r s up t o ' t h i s p o i n t . Provide overlap  information, assist *  in  programming  and  avoid  7 0 20 id 83 5 12 78  16  78B22  16  24  l POTENTIAL  i.\'i>n:  t.VL"«T5 SELECTED. AS MOST  Y E AW H Y ,'>;i:H  i IKEI. IH'JOO  1SE.LIM00D  ncc:;rini N C C  E  OF  R  »Y  GCi;'i.<Hr.?. c: :  IMPORTANT 10 AOULT EDUCATION  IMr'ACT ON A D M I T EDUCAT I )N A.N'TIC l°A!ED H Y THE I" THE EVENf OCCURS.  (Cont'd.)  3H0UP  '-JD4  10  Vi ~ V e r y  C = Of  i<LACMLS j » r  M  s  '  Crr.i t  cat  Mod e r a  slight  U  C H A K S E S ;)« C V . I S t S O F C H A N IE I N AUUl. T E D U C A T I ON I ? 1H E E V E N T O C C U R S  PA M L A S V . E V 4t NI Of I H E V U !.')! T Y Of EACH I f EV. R E L i l IVE T O THE F O R E C A S T  s;u.,N (by /)  N •* None  3^. F i f t y t of operating costs of n i g h t s c h o o l p r o g r a m s w i l l be provided through p r o v i n c i a l funds.  Never  Later  i  100  15)0 50 1^3 0  137<  37. Community c o l l e g e s w i l l a b s o r b 25? o f p r e s e n t pub l i e public school adult education administrators.  Never La t e r .  1^30  <3  CO  50  I334 •  1;«0  R e c o g n i t i o n >f teacher-pupil Enable a great  t h e p o s s i b l e d i r e c t i o n f o r i n c l u s i o n In r a t i o w i l l help i n c r e a s e i n t h e number o f c o u r s e s o f f e r e d  a s e n r o l m e n t numbers w>uld n o t be t h e p r i m e f a c t o r s i n presenting these courses> E a s i e r to o f f e r c o u r s e s a t t r a c t i n g few s t u d e n t s , t h e r e f o r e more v a r i e d p r o g r a m s » Fi'na n c i a l s t a b i l i t y w o u l d t a k e t h e " p r e s s u r e " o f f « Would p r o v i d e o p p o r t u n i t i e s t o t h o s e who w u l d n o t p a r t i c i p a t e p r e v i o u s l y because they l i v e in s p a r s e l y populated areas f More v a r i e d a n d b e t t e r p r o g r a m m i n g w i t h i n t h e f i n a n c i a l r a n g e o f more p e o p l e -  L o c a l a d m i n i s t r a t o r s w o u l d s t i l l be s e r v i n g d i s t r i c t s f o r l o c a l c o m m u n i c a t i o n b u t w o u l d be w o r k i n g a s p a r t o f c o l l e g s t a f f r e s i d e n t o u t s i d e the campusT h i s would r e p r e s e n t a p o l i t i c a l d e c i s i o n * T h e r e w o u l d be l e s s l o c a l a u t o n o m y . T h i s w o u l d p r e s u m a b l y make t h e a d u l t e d u c a t i o n a d m i n i s t r a t e an employee of t h e c o l l e g e r a t h e r t h a n t h e s c h o o l d i s t r i c t w h i c h w - u l d have b o t h a d v a n t a g e s a n d d i ' a d v a n t a g e s *  50  5Y  83  17  88 88  12 12  9*1 88  1  72  b 12  22  35  *7  *5  33  61  39  1370  33. Community c o l l e g e s w i l l h a v e b r a n c h e s i n e v e r y community i n 3 . C . w i t h a p o p u l a t i o n of 1 9 , C 0 0 * .  Never La t e r 1330  4  1370  C o l l e g e s w i l l a d m i n i s t e r the c o - o r d i n a t i 0 T h i s w o u l d r e s u l t i n a p r o g r a m more s o p h i s t i c a t e d ,  more .  c o s t l y , a n d l e s s r e s p o n s i v e t o community • The a d m i n i s t r a t i o n a t t h e l o c a l l e v e l o f c o l l e g e c o u r s e s wi 11 d i « a p p e a r • A d u l t e d u c a t i o n s e r v i c e s w i l l be e x p a n d e d * W i l l make a d u l t e d u c a t i o n a d m i n i s t r a t o r s e m p l o y e e s o f t h e c o l l e g e r a t h e r than the d i s t r i c t with s u b s e q u e n t a d v a n t a g e s and d i s a d v a n t a g e s >  35  25  46 78  12 22  °3; 32  2*  LlKELIHOOO OF  YEAH SY i  OH  L l ^ i 1.1 ''000 EEi:-' <:'<: o i - U 1 -E :«T I M : v: N i ' ,  EVENT" SELECTED-  of OCf;)i.'»«lKC"  AS MOST  IMPORTANT TO ADULT EDUCATION  AOUl T EDUCATION ANT IC ! A ! E 0 BY THE GHOUP  IMrMCI  ON  I"  EVENT OCCURS.  Till  (Cont'd.)  o  C'.iftuENCE CO  VO  *  G = M S  Very  Great  C.tv.U SNidera I »  J  -  S l i g h t  C!lANOf.3 OK CAUSES OF CHAN.!? IN AOULT FOUCA1 I ON IF THE" EVENT OCCllrtS  PAN: L ASSES' E N T OF I HE V At ! 0 I T Y Or EACH I TiM HfclATIVE TO THE \ OKECAS1 SHO,N ( b y I)  N ' None  41. A l l universities, colleges, school d i s t r i c t adult education a nd r e c r e a t i o n c o m m i s s i o n s will c o - o r d i n a t e t h e i r a c t i v i t i e s to av o i d o v e r l a p o f s e r v i c e s  vo  N e v r. r  Later lj  jo  A  ljS4 138  Colleges  w i l l administer  the co-ordination*  T h i s would r e s u l t i n i n c r e a s e d e f f i c i e n c y o f o p e r a t i o n , and w i d e r v a r i e t y o f c o u r s e s . The a d m i n i s t r a t i v e s t r u c t u r e w u l d c h a n g e . Would r e s u l t i n more e f f i c i e n t u s e o f r e s u r c e s w i t h i n t h e coramun i t y T h i s s h o u l d mean b e t t e r community s e r v i c e •  ;39 331 5°  I  701  ?  2  0  1370  43. A l l adult education activitiejs w i l l be a s h a r e d r e s p o n s i b i l i t y b between p u b l i c n i g h t s c h o o l s and community c o l l e g e s .  Never Later  1;30  VO  Would r e s u l t i n a n i n c r e a s e i n e x c h a n g e o f i d e a s . This w i l l a f f e c t c o l l e g e s not a d u l t e d u c a t i o n programs necessar i ly ^ School boards w i l l supply f a c i l i t i e s co-ordinate adult education.  while  colleges  will  71 35 70  '1384 1/S0  1970  46. S p e c i f i c on t h e j o b p r o g r a m s w i l l be d e v e l o p e d t o a l l e v i a t e boredom i n t e d i o u s o r repetitious industrial or factory jobs.  T h i s w o u l d be t h e r e s u l t o f m T e demand f o r u p g r a d i n g 53! T h i s i s d o n e now i n i n d u s t r y 25 P o t e n t i a l c h a n g e i f a d u l t e d u c a t i o n were t o be i n v o l v e d w i t a n d / o r c o - o r d i n a t i n g such programs • 75  1370  2  Y E A S ' SY  ' 0 • I  E V E N T 3 SELECTED AS MOST  4  LIKELIHOOD OF  I Kit!"000  IMPACT ON A Dill. T EDUCAT ION ANT I 3 I "A 1 IE 0 8 Y 1 M E IE THE EVEN! OCCURS.  VO s G M S N  53Community c o l l e g e s a n d industry w i l l " "share" personnel in order that c o l l e g e s can p r o v i d e job t r a i n i n g facilities a nd p r o g r a m s s u i t a b l e f o r c h a n g i n g employment needs i n industry.  3  Very Great Great  CHAN SE S  Mod era t e .Slight  CH AN SE I N ADULT EDUCATION 1 ' THE EVENT OCCL'iiS  i  100  (Cont'd.)  SHOUP  50  P A N E I ASSES:- M -.NT OF THE ' VAl. K 1 TY 01 E -iCH ITEM HI! LA I IVE IE) HE T FORECAST 5H0«'\ (>»/ i)  T h e r e w i l l be a n i n c r e a s e d u s e o f p a r a p r o f e s s i o n a l s • C o l l e g e s a n d v o c a t i o n a l i n s t i t u t i o n s w i l l become more distinct -  This'would  rlCO  CAUSES OF  Norse  V3  54. A l l employees who need r e t r a i n i n g to c a r r y .n t h e i r jobs w i l l be paid by t h e i r employers at the Same wage l e v e l d u r i n g their re-training period.  EDUCATION  COCEKKENOE  in  M. : V E N T S  IMPORTANT TO ADULT  be e c o n o m i c a l l y  feasible •  82  12  24  41  16S  T e c h n o l o g y w i l l / s h o u l d be a c c e p t e d a n d u n i o n s must r e c o g n i z e , c o - o p e r a t e and encourage r e - t r a i n i n g » T h i s w i l l r e s u l t from i n c r e a s e d job load and respons i b i 1 i ^ p l u s u s e o f new t e c h n o l o g y . W i l l c r e a t e a need f o r a d d i t i o n a l areas .  25 25 25  training  programs  in a l l  b  1370  There  57» University (or college) i n s t r u c t o r s w i l l t r a v e l (based on e d u c a t i o n a l n e e d s o f i n d i v i d u a l communities) rather than s t u d e n t s .  100  <6  50  1370  will  be i n c r e a s e d a d m i n i s t r a t i v e  requirements  regarding organization of c l a s s e s T h e r e w i l l be e x t e n s i v e g r o w t h o f e x t e n s i o n d e p a r t m e n t s o f c o l l e g e s and u n i v e r s i t i e s * T h i s w i l l make i t p o s s i b l e f o r many p e o p l e t i a t t e n d and g r a d u a t e from u n i v e r s i t i e s , something o f t e n impossible f o r them t o do i n t h e p a s t «  53 41  9*  b  88  12  24  YEAR BY «'HICH LIVELIHOOD SELECTva HO I S N ' T 1 U . EVENTS  Of  ;;  EVENTS SELECTED AS MOST IMPORTANT TO AOULT EOUCATION  LIKELIHOOD OF OCCURRENCE OT 1304  IMPACT ON AOUI T EDUCATION ANTICI'-'ATEO BY. 1" THE EVENT O C C U RS.  - 1—  'it •-  •'  VO * Very Ores t G " Ore.it V. Mode ra t e S - Slight N None  OCCUR; ENCE HE A C H E o yn  THE GROUP  3  CHANSES O R C A U S E S OF CHANOE I N ADULT EOUCATION 1" THE EVENT OCCURS  CC •'• v.. r3  P A N E L ASSESSMENT Of THE 'VALIDITY OF EACH ITEM RELATIVE TO THE FORECAST SHU.'N (by }}  »—  • \Z~>  •  CD  \i 1  J  58. The " o p e n " u n i v e r s i t y concept w i l l be implemented in order to reach more non r esident students at l e s s c o s t .  fever .a t e r  .1230 .1,84 1330  V3  <  1370  .  /  1390  <J  [100  <  Never  •  1330  .  1934 1H00  1370  b  75 75  13 13  b 6  in more u n i v e r s i t i e s d e v e l o p i n g  their 83 17 78 bl  22 33  33 39  22  I '100  •, ° 5  0 1  35 41  J  1370  _ Later  53 59  1  0 '  This w i l l result  extension a i v i s i o n s The t i m e t a b l i n g of o u r s e s w i l l be planned in c o n j u n c t i o n with l o c a l needs» not n e c e s s a r i l y Just f o r weekendsto ny people w i l l attend and graduate- something o f t e n impossible in the past • Onus w i l l be upon d i r e c t o r s of a d u l t e d u c a t i o n to c o o r d i n a t e t h i s extension s e r v i c e -  •50  1384 1380  ru  J V3  Never Later  T h i s w i l l be a p o l i t i c a l d e c i s i o n . This is the i»etult f the changing r o l e of the u n i v e r s i t y . This present an untapped source of s t u d e n t s . Fraser Valle c o l l e g e w i l l prob ab ly s t a r t with t h i s concept. P o t e n t i a l l y added load to out of the way d i s t r i c t s »  0  «T  •30  ' 0  f>2. Univ e r s i t i e s w i l l extend post graduate e d u c a t i o n thr ughout the province through a comb i n a t i c n of ^ c o r r e s pondence and (b) t r a v e l l i n g p r o f e s s o r s who w i l l hold weekly week end seminars in l e s s populated areas of B.C.  1  1 100  1U crto • O t-'»  ii  I  1 1  ! ]ft  CTY  

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