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The academy in 2005-2015 : a web-based Delphi study Kennedy, Kathryn Anne 2002

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\  THE ACADEMY IN 2005 - 2015: A WEB-BASED DELPHI STUDY by Kathryn Anne Kennedy B.G.S., Simon Fraser University, 1988 M.A., The University of British Columbia, 1992 A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY in FACULTY OF GRADUATE STUDIES (The Department of Educational Studies) We accept this thesis as conforming To the required standard  THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA December 2002 © Kathryn Anne Kennedy, 2002  In  presenting  degree  this  thesis  in  at the University of  partial  fulfilment  British Columbia,  of  the  requirements  for  an  advanced  I agree that the Library shall make it  freely available for reference and study. I further agree that permission for extensive copying  of  department  this or  thesis by  his  for scholarly or  her  purposes  may  representatives.  It  be is  granted  by the head  understood  that  publication of this thesis for financial gain shall not be allowed without permission.  Department of  £cL±c^,£rrtctJ?  The University of British Columbia Vancouver, Canada  Date  DE-6 (2/88)  ^studies  of  my  copying  or  my written  Abstract In just over a decade the growing use of information and communication technologies (ICT) has caused systemic change in business, communication and financial enterprises. National boundaries have become increasingly transparent and now ICT have the potential to alter higher education institutions dramatically. The purpose of this study was to solicit views from an international panel of experts who provide a broad look at the North American academy as it may be during 2005 to 2015. A distinguished panel forecasts the impact due to internal and external influences of ICT. The research is carried out using web-based Delphi procedures designed to solicit the opinions of three types of experts and determine the level of consensus among them on issues panelists raise about likely influences of ICT. Based on these data the study arrives at the panel's perspective of how higher education might be transformed because of these technologies and some conclusions are drawn. Scholars, educational administrators and ICT professionals, recruited globally, took part in three iterations of web-based Delphi questionnaires. Online feedback from Rounds 2 and 3 gives histograms showing the three subgroups' interquartiles, means, SDs and commentary. The analysis of Round 3 (N=54) is used in reporting results. Ninety-eight percent of the 85 items achieve consensus on importance and that outcomes are likely to occur before 2010 in North America. Consensus is achieved on the probability of 64 items (75 percent of total number of items); 9 of these items rate a low probability of occurrence. Areas of non-consensus are identified for further research. Fourteen themes emerge under three broad issues: Institutional, Faculty and Staff, and Educational. Web-based instruments were innovated for the research and are on the CDROM. According to this panel the academy will be markedly different during 2005 to 2015. Student populations will have expanded and changed, as will the faculty culture and professorial roles. Universities and colleges will reorganize in response to ICT as high quality, online education moves to the core of on-campus learning. A mixed-mode of face-to-face and online education is predicted as the distinctions between on- and offcampus education blur. Well-financed consortia of universities/corporations operating globally are forecast and will grow to dominate large sections of online education. By 2005 to 2015 the reputation of a university will have as much to do with the activities of its professors on the web as with scholarship, research and service on-campus.  ii  TABLE OF CONTENTS  ABSTRACT  ii  TABLE OF CONTENTS  iii  APPENDIX CONTENTS  ix  LIST OF TABLES  xii  LIST OF FIGURES  xv  CD-ROM INSTRUCTIONS  xvi  ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS  xviii  DEDICATION  xix  SECTION 1 CHAPTERS ONE TO THREE  SECTION 1 TITLE PAGE: CONTEXT FOR THE RESEARCH  1  CHAPTER ONE: INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGIES IN ACADEMIA Introduction  2  Context of the Study  6  Assumptions  14  Problem Statement  15  Research Question  18  Significance of the Study  19  Dissertation Overview  21  CHAPTER TWO: LITERATURE REVIEW Introduction  23 23  PART 1: STATE OF THE ART- STRUCTURES AND PRACTICES IN HIGHER EDUCATION ICT USE  24  Driving Factors for Change  32  Factors Inhibiting Change in Higher Education  39  Political Pressures for Change in Universities  44  U.K. Experience with Economies of Scale  45  A Central Administration of ICT  46  For-Profit Universities  48  Government University Industry Cooperation Government Control  50 53  Innovation Adoption in Universities  56  Summary  58  Part 2 - The Academic Debate on ICT Defining the debate  59 59  iv  Outcomes of the debate  76  Summary  77  CHAPTER THREE: THE DELPHI METHOD: HISTORY, DESCRIPTION, CRITIQUE AND APPLICATION  78  Introduction  78  History of Futurism and the Delphi Method  79  The Delphi Method  86  Developmental  87  Applications  88  Comparative Comments  91  Three Types of Delphi  94  Robustness of the Delphi  102  Strengths  104  Weaknesses  107  Reliability  Ill  SECTION 2 CHAPTERS FOUR TO SEVEN SECTION 2 TITLE PAGE  114  CHAPTER FOUR: DATA COLLECTION AND WEB-BASED DELPHI PROCEDURES Introduction  115 115  v  Web-based Research Design  116  The Panel  122  Design of Online Delphi Instruments  136  Delphi Rounds  137  Advantages of the Web-based Methodology  140  Design and Development of the Web-based Questionnaires  141  Analysis of Round 1 Results  143  Details of the Design of the Round 2 Delphi Online Instrument  144  Analysis of Round 2 Results  146  Round 3 Online Instrument  153  Round 3 Results Online  158  Reporting on Round 3 Results For Dissertation  160  Lessons Learned in Data Collection  164  CHAPTER FIVE: RESULTS  173  Synopsis  173  Brief Review of Procedures for Analysis  174  Limitation of Scope  177  Introduction  178  INSTITUTIONAL ISSUES Government Issues  179  Organization and Infrastructure Issues  185  Funding and Efficiency Issues  193  vi  Competitive Market Conditions Issues  202  Globalisation/Internationalism Issues  216  CHAPTER SIX: RESULTS ON FACULTY AND STAFF ISSUES  228  Job Security and rewards  228  Roles of Faculty and staff  240  Intellectual Property  253  CHAPTER SEVEN: RESULTS ON EDUCATIONAL ISSUES  260  Wide spread use of the web  260  Degrees, Certification and Accreditation  268  Learner Focus  274  Online Learning Tools  280  Student Access/Equity  291  Educational Values  299  Items Rated "Improbable"  308  Items identified for Further Research  311  Synopsis of Means Ratings  312  Summary of Data Analysis Methods  317  vn  SECTION 3 DISCUSSION ON FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONS CHAPTERS EIGHT & NINE SECTION 3 TITLE PAGE  318  CHAPTER EIGHT: DISCUSSION ON FINDINGS COMPARED WITH THE LITERATURE  319  Introduction  319  Brief Review of the Delphi Method  322  Web-based Research Design  323  Summary of Findings and Discussion  328  CHAPTER NINE: IMPLICATIONS, CONSEQUENCES OF ICT AND RECOMMENDATIONS FOR PRACTICE AND RESEARCH Introduction  357  PART 1: Implications and Consequences of ICT Use  358  PART 2: Recommendations for Practice and for Research  376  Introduction  378  Conclusion  379  Recommendations for Practice  385  Recommendations for Research  387  References  389  Chapter Content Notes  411  vin  APPENDIX CONTENTS A  Chronology of Futures Studies  414  B  Chronology of RAND Delphi Authors  426  C  Evaluation of Online Delphi Process  427  D  Lead and Referral Invitation  E 1 to E 2  429  Criteria for Selection of Experts  E 1  Criteria for experts on web (see CD-ROM)  434  E2  Criteria for selection of experts  436  F  Invitation's Delegate Letter  444  G  Panel Demographics  445  H 1 to H 8  Round 1 Correspondence  H 1  Invitational Package  456  H2  Round 1 Email cover for attachments  466  H3  Invitation Sent via Post with Delegate Letter  467  H4  Round 1 Follow-up Email to Non-respondents (1)  468  H5  Round 1 Follow-up Email to Non-respondents (2)  469  H6  Round 1 -Invitation Following-up a Lead  470  H7  Round 1 - Follow up Email to Non-responders (3)  471  H8  Round 1 Completion Email Thank You  472  11 to I 3 Round 2 Announcement and follow up Emails 11  Round 2 Invitation  473  I2  Round 2 Email Invitation follow-up  475  I3  Round 2 Email Follow-up to Non-Respondents  476  ix  I4 J 1 to J5  Round 2 Email Follow up to Non-respondents (2)  477  Reasons for Non-Participation  J1  Excerpts from Email communications  478  J2  Sun Microsystems, Inc., Bill Joy  479  J3  IBM, US, John D. Wetmore  480  J4  IBM, Canada, Lou Gerstner  481  J5  MIT - Nicholas Negroponte  482  K  Partial List of Panelists  483  L  Pilot Testers  489  Ml to M 3 Round 1 Results and Updates Ml  Round 1 Results update (Aug. 28, 2000)  490  M2  Round 1 Results - Notice to Panelists  491  M 3  Round 1 Results - Notice to Panelists (2)  492  N  Web Designer Agreement for Rounds 2 and 3  O 1 to O 5  493  Round 2 Email Progress Reports  O1  Round 2 Progress Report dated Oct. 10 - 13th, 2000  494  O2  Round 2 Progress Report dated Nov. 6, 2000  495  O3  Round 2 Progress Report dated Dec. 1, 2000  496  O4  Round 2 Progress Report to non-participants in Round 1  497  O5  Round 2 Follow up Email  498  P 1 to P 2  Announcements Round 2 Begins  P1  Broadcast Email Round 2 Begins Announcement  499  P2  Round 2 Invitations dated January 17, 2001  500  x  Q 1 to Q 3  Emails to Non-Respondents  Q1  Round 2 Follow-up Email to Non-respondents  503  Q2  Round 2 Follow-up Email to Non-responders  504  Q3  Round 2 Follow-up Email on Time Extension  505  R  Respondents' Final Comments at end of Delphi Round 3  506  SI to S 4  Round 3 Progress Reports  S1  Round 3 Progress Report dated Feb. 21, 2001  52  Notice of Round 3 Questionnaire within 1 week - Apr. 1, 2001  53  Broadcast Email of Delay in Round  510  54  Round 3 broadcast Email Announcement dated May 1, 2001  511  TI to T 3  507 508  Round 3 Begins: Announcements  T1  Round 3 Announcement Sent via Email Broadcast  T2  Round 3 Instructions Online  T3  Personal Email Cover Letter dated May 2, - May 8, 2001  T4  Round 3 Personal Email Announcement - May 7, 01 - May 8, 01  T5  Round 3 Email Follow-up  518  T6  Round 3 Personal Email Follow-up to Non-Respondents  519  TJ  Theme Categories  V  Index of Statements for Round 3 (in item number order)  512 514 ..515 516  520 528  xi  LIST OF T A B L E S 4.1. Participation Rates 4.2. Strength of Consensus  135 162  4.3. Dichotomies  163  5.1. Means for all Themes  344  5.1(a) Means Government  184  5.1(b) Means Organization and Infrastructure -  193  5.1 (c) Means Funding and Efficiency  202  5.1(d) Means Competitive Market Conditions  215  5.1(e) Means Globalization/Internationalism  226  5.1(f) Means Job Security and Rewards  239  5.1 (g) Means Roles of Faculty and Staff  251  5.1(h) Means Intellectual Property  257  5.1 (i) Means Widespread Use of the Web  267  5.1(j) Means Degrees, Certification and Accreditation  273  5.1(k) Means Learner Focus  280  5.1(1) Means Online Learning Tools  290  5.1(m) Means Student Access and Equity 5.1 (n) Means Educational Values 5.1(o) Round 3 Scale for Rating Scores  298 306 541  5.2. Means of Themes Scores  176  5.2(a). Means of Themes Scores  534  xii  5.3  Probability Medians and Means  542  5.4 Importance Medians and Means  546  5.5  Timing Medians and Means  549  5.6  Level of Consensus Government  180  5.7  Level of Consensus Organization and Infrastructure  186  5.8  Level of Consensus Funding and Efficiency  194  5.9  Level of Consensus Competitive Market Conditions  203  5.10 Level of Consensus Globalization/Internationalism  217  5.11 Level of Consensus Job Security and Rewards  230  5.12 Level of Consensus Roles of Faculty and Staff  241  5.13 Level of Consensus Intellectual Property  254  5.14 Level of Consensus Wide Spread Use of the Web  261  5.15 Level of Consensus Degrees, Certification and Accreditation  269  5.16 Level of Consensus Learner Focus  275  5.17 Level of Consensus Online Learning Tools  282  5.18 Level of Consensus Student Access and Equity  292  5.19 Level of Consensus Educational Values  300  5.20 Level of Consensus - Not Probable  310  5.21 Level of Non Consensus 21 items  552  5.22 Ranked Means of Probability (negative 1 to positive 1) 5.23 Ranked Means of Importance (negative 1 to positive 1) 5.24 Panel's Top 10 Probability Means Ranked  555 558 561  xiii  5.25 Panel's Top 10 Importance Means Ranked  562  5.26 Panel Ranked Means of Probability  563  5.27 Panel Ranked Importance Means & SD  565  5.28 Academics Ranked Means of Importance  .567  5.29 Administrators Ranked Importance Means  569  5.30 IT Professionals Ranked Importance Means  571  5.31 Panel Ranked Means and SD of Timing  573  5.32 Round 3 Item Numbers Cross-Referenced to Themes  575  xiv  List of Figures  1. Round 1: Organizational Phase  169  2. Round 1: Qualitative Phase  170  3. Round 2: Quantitative (and Qualitative) Phase  171  4. Round 3: Quantitative (and Qualitative) Phase  172  5. Number of Replies to Invitations  127  6. Number of Panelists in each Subgroup  130  7. Round 1: Number of Years of Experience  131  8. Round 3: Number of Years of Experience  132  9. Percentage female/male in subgroups (Round 2)  132  10. Percentage of Panel as Designates by Gender  134  11. Round 2 Rating Categories  145  12. Round 2 Rating Values  146  13. Round 3 Ordinal Scales  159  xv  C D - R O M INSTRUCTIONS  Contains 22,804 files, 1,592 Folders Size: 24.9 MB (26,133,107 bytes) Size on disk: 101 MB (106,356,736 bytes) Production date: May 16, 2002  To start 'click on' INDEX.HTM  in Internet explorer 6.x or higher  (newer) in Windows 2000 or Windows XP (not Netscape). I t requires no other special software other than your web browser as it operates using JavaScript and HTML only. If, for any reason, it ever freezes or stops working, 'click on button - refresh page'. Use a screen resolution of at least 1024 x 768 with regular sized fonts (not large fonts). This is recommended to fit everything on the screen. Usually, most laptops and desktops are set to this by default. This CD-ROM documents all the online instruments used in this web-based research at URL ubcdelphi.net along with the data results for two rounds of questionnaires. A navigational tool has been added to the left side of the screen. Due to the inherent limitations of a 'static' webpage, the CD has less interactivity than the original site, and navigation is more cumbersome.  Hyperlinks found on the main area of the screen (where the data appears) often link back to the original site. If no active Internet connection  xvi  is present, these links will not work. Rely on the navigation toolbar on the left to move through the site. 'Click on' the desired questionnaire (1 to 3) or Results (2 to 3) and 'click on » button' to proceed forward ( « to go backwards). A specific question can be viewed by use of the 'click on' tab labeled "Jump to Questions". The first column of numbers pertains to Round 2 while the second column of question numbers (in parentheses) pertain to Round 3. Use the directional arrows ( « ) and ( » ) to link to the next desired screen page.  The main page gives choice of:  • Viewing instructions for questionnaires 1 to 3 •Viewing "Panel Profile" • Round 1 Questionnaire • Round 2 Questionnaire • Round 2 Results • Round 3 Questionnaire • Round 3 Results •Jump to specific Question number • View subgroup Results (Round 2 or 3) • View Panel Results (Round 3 only) • View panelists' comments (Round 2 and 3 Results)  XVII  Acknowledgements I am grateful to all panelists for their generosity in giving their time and engaging so thoroughly in this web-based Delphi process. Much appreciated were their insightful ratings and commentary. encouragement and advice they gave.  I am grateful for the  Many thanks for the wise counsel,  painstaking attention, patience and support of my research Committee—Dr. Tom Sork, Dr. Kjell Rubenson, Dr. Tony Bates, and Dr. Bill Richards.  As well  thanks to Bill Richards for his introduction to the technical support needed to execute online instruments. My thanks to Dr. Gordon Selman, always a respected mentor. I am grateful to Pat Hindley for her encouragement and guidance, to Amanda Hunt and Anita Bronson for their careful editing. As well gratitude to Dr. Bronwen Wilson who came to the rescue when my hardware and software failed.  My appreciation to Andrew Seary, the  webmaster for Round 1 and to Alexei White, the webmaster for Rounds 2 and 3; to both, thanks for your tolerance with a "non-techie."  Grateful  appreciation to my advisory committee—Gordon and Mary Selman, Mark Bullen, and Cynthia Andruske.  Also my thanks to panel pilot testers, Dean  Sutphin, Randy Bruce, Dennis Macknak, Janet Atkinson-Grosjean, and then the Round 3 pilot testing by Applied Research and Evaluation Services, Faculty of Education, of the University of British Columbia. My appreciation goes to Margaret Hope for her stimulating advice on presentation and instruction on the use of Power Point software.  XVlll  Dedication  I dedicate this dissertation to my husband, Gilbert James Hardman, for his unwavering support, care, encouragement, friendship, understanding, wisdom and love. Without him I would not have had the opportunity and confidence to complete this dissertation.  xix  Section 1 Context for the Research  Chapter One  ICT in Academia  Chapter Two  Literature Review  Part 1  State of the Art on Structures and Practices in Higher Education ICT Use  Part 2  The Academic Debate on ICT Use  Chapter Three  The Delphi Method  I  CHAPTER ONE ICT IN ACADEMIA Introduction  It is moral to know what you are doing—and that includes 'knowing' in advance ofyour acts the probable future that you will create by your acts (Wendell Bell). The Delphi methodology has evolved to include approaches to forecasting aimed at getting an informed understanding of some aspect of the future.  There is considerable debate among scholars regarding the role Information Communications Technologies (ICT) or Information Technologies (IT) can play in 1  higher education. Some are convinced that ICT will cause fundamental change throughout the entire structure of higher education. Others are resistant to change in an academic culture that has served universities well for centuries; these scholars reject the inevitability of ICT global impact on higher education. The academic debate concerning ICT is an interesting one and ideas of both supporters and critics are invaluable (some aspects of this debate are explored in Chapter Two). By examining issues thoroughly we can evaluate the consequences of choices. No university can afford to adopt an ICT infrastructure without a full awareness of the implications for academic freedom and of the financial, regulatory, pedagogical, market and student needs which its adoption infers.  Business, worldwide, is shifting from nation-based to networked global operations and more and more countries are adopting a form of market-driven economy. One consequence of this change is that job-intensive industrial production is gravitating to countries that offer cheap labour. Canada, for instance, has and will continue to have  difficulty in creating jobs in some of its traditional task-oriented organizations and industries. Ideas and information will drive growth; jobs increasingly will become dependent on a knowledge-based economy (Rowley, Lujen, and Dolence, 1998). There will be a need for new competencies, new skills and the capability to learn; information and communication technologies will spur intellectual development. A knowledgeintensive North American economy dictates the periodic re-education of workers, which will result in a heavy demand on colleges, polytechnics, and universities. The Internet will be an important source of information and communication in these educational efforts. Rubenson and Schuetze (2000) contend that the significance of ICT in driving the knowledge market lies in its ability to codify information and knowledge.  At the core of this dissertation is my interest in the mid- to long-term effects and significance of ICT in higher education. A web-based Delphi survey of expert opinion was undertaken to discover where consensus exists in forecasting change that may occur during the period 2005 to 2015. Though some aspects of this study may be generalisable to the University of British Columbia, that university is not an intended focus of this investigation. The context of this research is global and draws on the opinion of experts from several countries. However, the data collected is viewed from a North American perspective and examines the broad influences which ICT may have on colleges, polytechnics, and universities. There is an accelerating demand for ICT services in North American higher education. The demand is occurring at a juncture when there is an increased capacity to disseminate knowledge through ICT. Unfortunately, these  3  technological advances and a growth in demand for ICT services are occurring during a period of budget stringency for higher education.  A purpose of this research is to identify issues, events, innovations, opportunities, threats, process changes, and risks that are important and probable on how ICT use will influence higher education institutions during the years 2005 to 2015. There is considerable literature on IT but a lack of well-researched material. This is especially true of literature about the Internet, the challenging upstart in a centuries-old educational tradition. The Internet has been in general use in higher education for just over 10 years; therefore, literature about the influences of IT has to be considered with some caution.  In a review presented to the Australian government, Cunningham, Tapsall, Ryan, Stedman, Bagdon, and Flew (1998) describe some globalising trends and countervailing localising forces that may have direct relevance to the ability of global networks to carry higher education across national borders. They discuss the partnering of a globallybranded university with a global media network, offering a high quality prestigious set of degree programs, as a possible threat to the stability of educational structures in countries like Australia. Some institutions of higher education in North America may face similar threats. Cunningham, et al. (1998) comment: There is no shortage of scholarly, journalistic, governmental or institutionspecific material on the impact of communications and information technologies, media influence, the globalised economy, or the future of higher education. There is, however, an acute shortage of thorough and realistic analyses of the intersection of these areas. (Executive Summary, 3 para.) rd  4  For the purposes of this Delphi investigation the opinions of an international panel of experts were solicited from three walks of life—scholars/professors; educational administrators; and IT professionals—all of which will have influence in changing the educative process. The intersection of ideas from these three disparate group of experts results in a more convincing analysis of the influences of the diffusion of ICT in higher education than would an examination of expert opinion from academics alone.  An inevitable degree of uncertainty exists as a feature in forecasting mid- to longterm developments since all forecasts are necessarily speculative. This dissertation reviews the literature on ICT and its implications for change in higher education institutions from 2005 to 2015. In addition, by analysing experts' forecast on likely effects of these technologies, the study seeks to fill the current research gap on mid-term influences of ICT. The research thus may help reduce uncertainty in strategic planning for higher education. The period 2005 to 2015 is selected for three reasons. (1) The study draws attention to long-term issues, events, and probabilities through the opinions of a panel of experts. (2) The start date of 2005 provides a separation between change that is currently taking place and change of the future. By 2005 technology will have increased in sophistication and university, college administrators, and professors will have made important choices between competing Internet systems and technologies. The study looks beyond the immediate future and considers what changes may occur in higher education institutions in response to further development in ICT. (3) Technologies used in ICT will change at such a rapid pace that experts in thefieldof higher education or the development of technology are reluctant to forecast beyond 2015.  5  Context of the Study  This study was carried out in the context of rapid and large-scale technological change worldwide with a view to providing an understanding of how such technological change will drive long-term economic growth. It is foreseen that educational methods and practices will be subject to revision, and notions about work and jobs will shift dramatically, throwing into question current methods of professional education and job training. Management, cognitive, and communication skills will be highly valued. There will be major issues around social concerns and the pursuit of lifelong learning.  Government, businesses and students alike are questioning the relevance of colleges and universities in preparing learners for employment in a much-changed 21  st  century (Tjeldvoll, 1999). How do we train, teach and educate a population to become individually diversified, self-sufficient and capable of responding in a rapidly changing world? Although vocational training is not the traditional role of a research university, will a failure by universities to take an active responsibility in preparing students for employment imply the surrender of an important part of education to commercial interests? Perhaps so, but proposals for the adoption of online education have caused 2  anxiety within the educational system. As innovations in ICT are successfully tested in other countries, for example the U S A or Europe, the pressures for their adoption in Canada can be expected to mount. Currently 25 percent of higher education institutions offer courses delivered via the Internet (netLearning, 2002).  6  A university plays a crucial role in technology transfer at two levels and is a site that can combine basic research needed for the advancement of industry with the training of its management (Carnoy, 1996). Duderstadt (2000) explains that the ICT relationship between people and knowledge is one of many issues that force post-secondary institutions to think and plan differently about their existing student populations.  Information technologies and the Internet are developing rapidly, yet uncertainty exists among educational theorists and policy and decision-makers concerning funding for their use. As well, some educators are doubtful about the wisdom of allocating large amounts of attention, capital and personnel to a broadening of ICT use in higher education. They are concerned that there is not sufficient research available about likely long-term effects, influences, directions and potentials for the use of ICT in higher education to effectively inform policy planning and decision-making. Richard Lipsey (2000) speaks of uncertainty in this area: Uncertainty is involved in more than just making initial technological breakthroughs. There is uncertainty with respect to the range of applications that a new technology may have. As new technologies diffuse, their specifications are improved and sometimes altered beyond recognition, (p. 42) Not only may educators unfamiliar with the capabilities of ICT be non-supportive, but also others who fully recognise their value may not understand how the educational system can afford to allocate extra resources to these technologies. As well, decisionmakers, both administrative and academic, may differ about which technologies will be of advantage when preparing strategies. Although most recognise the probability that ICT will change educational institutions in profound ways, they hold widely differing  views as to how and when such changes will occur and to what investment should be made. The matters stated here are not unique to North America, as many in other countries are expressing concerns and solutions that are of keen interest to educators in Canada and the USA. For example, Rubenson and Schuetze (2000) say that lifelong learning is a popular and important topic of policy papers not only in North America but also in Europe and among international organizations. However, they contend a master concept or a cohesive strategy for its implementation is lacking. The authors stress that the meaning of lifelong learning, which is often interpreted vaguely and too broadly, now needs strong policy determinants in an Internet Age.  Land (1994) from the UK draws attention to the challenge universities face in operating within a global communication network, and comments that the communications network with which an individual or institution is affiliated will become increasingly important. He suggests that researchers often have better connections with the work of others thousands of miles away than they do with colleagues three doors down the corridor. As an integral part of the convergence of technologies, the Internet has, in one decade, caused a paradigmatic change in the world's communication networks.  ICT are altering how the world conducts its affairs and present an urgent challenge to higher education institutions as the technologies continue to diffuse deeply into institutional infrastructure. Inexorably, ICT dominance in the area of communication will cause higher education to extend their use ever more widely. It is  8  commonly predicted by scholars, technologists, and policy specialists alike that well within thefirstdecade of the 21st century, ICT will have come into general use in developed countries, creating a mesh of global interchanges which will show little respect for political or geographical boundaries. As they diffuse into public networks, ICT will become culture transforming, changing the way we do business, make international transactions, make personal and political decisions, and, of significance here, approach higher education.  In a fledgling state ICT have played a part in higher education, but how important their use is likely to become is unknown. Organizational change through ICT has not reached as deeply into the culture of universities as it has in the business community. For instance, ICT has revolutionized the operation of the world's stock markets. Each week, billions of dollars worth of commerce is transacted electronically via the Internet. The methods, staffing and modes of operation in the world's banking industry have been transformed through the use of ICT. Because of the technologies, many public and private business concerns have eliminated entire levels of middle management and staff. Notable is a convergence of communication businesses in the ICT marketplace. Strategic alliance building, innovative production and marketing, communication network expansion, rapid distribution and client-centred services using ICT have gained not only a competitive edge for such businesses and industries, but also unprecedented access into markets worldwide. These markets include the previously sacred territory of higher education.  9  Before the Internet, early experiments in the use of computer technology in schools produced quite disappointing results (Williams & Brown, 1990). Partly because of these poor outcomes, some educators take a guarded position with respect to extensive use of ICT. Educators are concerned that an increased reliance on technology presents little opportunity to enhance their teaching and might damage the relationship between an educator and learner. Other educators believe that ICT can offer an opportunity for enhanced communication, personalised instruction and greater learner autonomy. The views of the latter are reinforced by the fact that the Internet and other ICT have developed rapidly and are continuing to evolve at an accelerating rate. Not only do students from geographically remote areas now take advantage of ICT, so do others who are balancing their education against full- or part-time work and family obligations. As well full-time, on-campus students use ICT to access or enrich course material and to conduct research.  Bold steps taken now towards the use of ICT may lead to significantly different higher education institutions. Within a decade synchronous and asynchronous education, once the marginalized function of distance education, may, via the Internet, become a core activity of higher education institutions. One can anticipate further and continuous change as new techniques and equipment are developed and merged into communication and computer domains. The convergence of communication networks with computer technologies has allowed the digital record keeping power of the computer to be applied to non-written, multimedia forms of communication. The use of ICT as part of the educational method involves a recognition of two underlying currents in the growth of  10  multimedia: "[ 1 ]... the return to nonliterate forms of documents and [2] ... the development of simulation and visualization as fundamental forms of expression.. ."(Hodges & Sasnett, 1993, p.8). These authors comment on the shift from an analog domain in IT to the use of digitized information aiming towards all-digital video. Sound, video, graphics, three-dimensional imagery and other non-written forms of presentation can be recorded in a digital format and transmitted via the Internet. Hodges and Sasnett (1993) identify inadequate bandwidth and limited modem speed currently as a constraint on the transmission and reception of video and other formats where these involve an intense use of digital imagery, but see rapidly developing technology as a solution. For instance, the US government in concert with a selection of universities, colleges and businesses is developing Internet2, which is expected to be 100 to 1000 times faster than the existing Internet. Canada's Advanced Internet Development Organization (CANARIE, Inc.) claims to have the first national optical Internet; it will deliver up to 40-gigabit capability, faster than any other existing commercial Internet in the world. Changes in technology make it reasonable to expect that powerful Internet tools and networks will remove most technical constraints within a decade. The changing capacities of ICT foreshadow the production of new powerful teaching and learning tools. Hodges and Sasnett (1993) describe a symbiotic relationship between IT learning methods and outcomes. They comment that ICT projects are seeking to give students a creative role, so that they do not simply react to prepared materials, but learn to create new materials. The basic concept is that the enactive role is central to the learning process. Educators have long combined theory and experience in pedagogy; what is  11  new, according to Hodges and Sasnett, is the packaging, ".. .which holds the potential for major advances in students' interaction with ideas" (p. 32).  According to Land (1994), the global knowledge base can be expected to grow rapidly in complexity and size. Ortner (1992), commenting on this growth and rapid change, describes 'a fundamental problem' faced by scholars in their search for knowledge: ...the phenomenon of accelerated obsolescence of knowledge, as a result of the multiplication of scientific and technological information. It can only be matched by steadily increasing knowledge, which enables future users to operate constantly and continuously accumulating data-bases, (p. 166) A partial resolution of the problem posed by Ortner (1992) may be found in the Internet, which may provide continuously improving methods and systems for the identification, selection and acquisition of required knowledge from a mass of available information.  I became interested in the potential for change through ICT during my business career in the USA, before coming to Canada to study. I was reasonably successful, having a senior position in a traditionally male-dominated industry, and earned a salary that was then among the top five to ten percent of US working women. One aspect of my professional responsibilities at headquarters was working with IT staff to define databases and implement user requirements for the introduction of computers within a specific division of an international transportation corporation. This work affected accounting, budgeting, marketing, performance, and capacity planning. Thirty-three US branch offices were to become computerized, so information and staff training were 12  crucial. The organization established its own intranet electronic mail via telephone lines, long before 'email' became popular, public, inexpensive and readily accessible. I recall astonishment at being able to notify our offices electronically and instantaneously, world wide, about specific changes in US government regulations that would immediately affect our paper procedures. During those early days when computerization had already caused radical change which would forever alter the organization's long-standing operational methods, I wondered if this change could have been forecasted and also what, why, where, when, and how deeply would other changes affect the corporation? Later, during my studies in Canada, when I observed that the Internet and its convergence with computer systems had caused radical changes in business, I became interested the possibility that ICT might also alter in higher education.  In the 90s there was uncertainty about the value of ICT use in academia just as there was, earlier, in business. The academic debate was unfolding: what were the issues, how would change be implemented, who would cause the change and would change be reactive or proactive? 'Knowing' in advance the probable results of one's acts would be crucial. At the core of this research lies the question: "What changes will result in higher education institutions through the technical, cultural and globalising influences of ICT?" This is the context in which this investigation is set.  13  Assumptions  A Delphi forecaster faces threats to validity, as do all scholars and scientists who make forecasts central to their work. Scientific theories about the future are impossible, but it is assumed that plausible forecasts can be made. In stating assumptions a forecaster is forced to confront individual biases and hidden assumptions that can damage a perfectly reasonable forecast. However, this broadly based investigation relies on expert panelists to provide relevant items for review, so my own bias is lessened. Moreover, when a consensus is achieved among several panel subgroups, then the findings have an advantage of improved reproducibility. McNamara (1974) comments on a Lindquist study, contending that reproducibility can also be improved when two distinct groups independently forecast the same events. This was the case in a study by Lindquist dealing with critical tasks for the secondary school principal of the future [Lindquist, 1972].  Two separate Delphi exercises were used, one for secondary school principals and the other for professors of education. When the responses of the studies were compared with each other, it was found that they agreed fairly closely (p.380). Dator (1998) and Hines (1995) state that assumptions are central in establishing 3  4  validity for 'futures studies;' such assumptions have to be clearly stated and discussed up front. Therefore, I made three assumptions. I assumed ICT will continue to change at an accelerating rate, increase in speed, sophistication, quality, utility and power during 2005 to 2015 and that there will be a widespread, broader use of ICT in higher education. Also mergers of businesses in the communications/multimedia sector continue to proliferate. 14  While I recognize that other stakeholders will be involved in the educative process, this research is limited to examining the opinions of experts well qualified by experience in forecasting influences that ICT might have in higher education. This study does not examine potential advantages of competing ICT systems.  Problem Statement Bearing in mind the differences in opinion that exist within academia over the use of ICT in higher education, I address the following problem. The cultural and educational traditions of the world's great universities have been built upon stable foundations formed through centuries of research, teaching, and service. During the first half of the 2 0 century a paradigm shift took place as universities directed their missions t h  away from educating an elite to mass education. Systemic changes occurred in universities and colleges as democratic influences increased and as ideas about equality of access to higher education took root. Though now serving a greatly expanded student population (NEC, 2 0 0 0 ) universities have retained their traditions of academic freedom, 5  research, teaching and service. Rigourous standards for education have been maintained in all prestigious universities. There is, however, another paradigm shift, caused by influences of ICT, occurring in the world, that is altering the way nations operate economically, socially, and politically. This shift may call for major changes in the way universities carry out their functions of teaching, research and service. For instance, universities and colleges in developed countries may be called upon to expand their  15  missions and provide higher education, through ICT, to large under-served populations at home, or in developing countries.  A global approach to online education will, if taken, necessitate a review of both our North American methods and practices by faculty and administrators and reconsideration of national missions and priorities by government and institutions. Bates (1995) discusses a framework for decision-making within the context of distributed learning. He asserts that thefirstdecision is to set up a system of teaching based on technological delivery. He comments that, in the past, technology decisions have not been based on theories and models but have been made intuitively, but by senior decision-makers, professors and professional media producers according to their personal experience. There is not so much fear of, or resistance to, the technology itself but rather a lack of knowledge or understanding regarding the online teaching and learning process. Some universities and colleges have taken steps towards resolving this situation. These institutions have centralised management at a senior level for ICT equipment and infrastructures, and their acquisition and maintenance. This staff person has responsibility for training and providing technical support to staff and faculty. Centralised control may foreshadow the use of ICT in most departments, faculties and on-campus education generally. Difficulties might lie in overcoming prejudices in the present university culture, its territorial imperatives and concerns over how ICT costs might be allocated.  16  Long-term strategic thinking about the influences of ICT will be necessary when setting revised directions for higher education. In a situation where IT is changing rapidly educators and decision makers will have to determine what is essential, what is affordable, and when to make choices between competing ideas and technologies. What, if any, current methods and practices will become obsolete? Uncertainty can create a problem in the allocation of resources to ICT and in the training of educators in their effective use. Uncertainty can also cause indecision about changes in institutional structures, changes that may be essential in response to global change. All these questions call for a long-term view.  One growing reality around the use of ICT in higher education, which cannot be ignored, is that large high tech companies and networks are now showing considerable interest in the development and marketing of educational products. Educators view the prospect of any commercialisation of the teaching process with alarm. Not only may a commodification of education be a threat to job security in higher education but also educators may fear an inferior outcome for students. Initially, corporate interest in this area has been focused on business education and vocational training. But it is by no means certain that this focus will be the ultimate of corporate ambitions in higher education. IBM, for instance, has been active in Europe and the USA promoting education and training by heavily discounting or donating equipment to educational institutions (Brande, 1992). Companies with immense financial resources and production skills such as IBM and Microsoft, already cater to large global markets. This marketing advantage can make it possible for private companies to produce sophisticated  17  multimedia products and other educational courseware at affordable prices; educational institutions have not yet matched these economies-of-scale. Unfortunately, important matters related to the use of ICT in higher education have been submerged in short term conflicts and debates among educators, administrators and decision-makers around the use of scarce funding. Too often strategic concerns are given little weight.  In sum, institutions of higher education are faced with unprecedented challenging questions about how the global diffusion of ICT will affect their educational values, structures, economics and operation. Questions of timing, finance, personnel impact, curriculum, and linkages to other institutions both academic and corporate are paramount. Through this research I intend to seek partial answers to this overall problem, by using the Delphi method to solicit expert opinion in forecasting medium-term future probabilities on educational institutional change through the influence of ICT within a selected time frame, 2005 to 2015. Research Question  In the context of a global change in communication systems and a knowledgebased economy, this study explores the likelihood of systemic change occurring in higher education institutions through a diffusion of ICT use. For the purpose of this research higher education institutions include public and private universities, colleges, and polytechnics. The research question guiding this Delphi study is set in the context that growing use of ICT has caused radical and systemic shifts in the way business, communication and financial enterprises are structured. How will ICT use impact change  18  in higher education institutions during the years 2005 - 2015? It was explained to panelists that there may be major influences (opportunities, issues, threats, and risks) arising from ICT use that need consideration. As well, competition from the private sector and its capacity for global marketing of educational courseware may be a significant factor. Significance of the Study  This investigation is justified for several reasons. Writing on approaches to education, Bates (1996) and Twigg (1994) conclude that the problem with all of the uses of information technology in the last decade (computer-aided instruction, networked information, distance learning) is that they were simply bolted onto then current instructional methods. A study of expert opinion about how ICT use in higher education institutions will affect change during the years 2005-2015 may give decision makers an improved understanding of the ways in which new technologies will influences higher education institutions. According to Gordon (1992) and many others, experts are more likely than non-experts to be correct about future developments in their field; therefore a consensus among experts is important. Consensuses or differences of opinion found within a panel of experts— composed of educators, educational administrators, and IT professionals—can illuminate issues around the re-organization of institutions for technological change.  Through this study, educators may gain new or more complex insights into some major influences of ICT. For example, higher education institutions may have to redefine  19  how educational methods can be structured to equip students for employment in a rapidly changing 21 century. Students completing studies at colleges or universities will need to st  learn the skills necessary to operate in a much-changed global marketplace. ICT may be influential in this learning. Periodic retraining of North America's workforce will become necessary if Canada and the US are to remain competitive in a knowledgeintensive global economy.  There is a lack of well-researched literature in the area of ICT in higher education in both the U.S. and Canada and much of the existing literature is anecdotal. The data collection and analysis were designed to contribute systematically researched material in this area. The study provides a statistical analysis of responses and ratings from a Delphi panel of experts to three rounds of questionnaires. It also provides an analysis of responses from designated subgroups of the panel: academics, administrators, and IT professionals. The method allows comparison between these subgroups and the entire panel.  The research contributes a forecast showing areas of consensus and difference in expert opinion on influences ICT will have in higher education institutions during 2005 2015. Although a Delphi consensus cannot be claimed as an accurate prediction, it does provide a plausible and useful insight into probable changes during those years.  The web-based Delphi instruments created for this research advance the Delphi methodology. They provide online models that can be used in other Delphi research  20  where multivariate data is collected and analysed for feedback and discussion. The minimum requirements in constructing a Delphi questionnaire series to determine a forecast have been met. The fundamentals are: (1) Qualitative [Round 1] —what to forecast; (2) Quantitative [Rounds 2 and 3]—a numerical expression of performance levels; (3) Time --when it will occur; and (4) Probability —to represent the uncertainties (Twiss, 1992). These requirements are operationalized in the instruments and I decided to use 'importance' as an additional criterion for setting priorities among the choices/outcomes in policy making. Panelists' commentary also provides a valuable source of knowledge, as it is useful for the inquiry into possible influences of ICT. Other studies into the future have not probed as deeply as this research into the importance, probability and timing of the use of ICT in higher education. Dissertation Overview Section 1 includes Chapters One to Chapter Three. Chapter One introduces the context of the study, assumptions, problem statement, and research question and outlines the significance of the study. Chapter Two presents the literature in two parts. Part 1 describes literature on the use of ICT in higher education and the opinions of scholars about related changes. The competitive climate is discussed, as is the general rate of adoption of innovation in higher education institutions. Differences between the differing roots and the direction of evolution in Canadian and American educational institutions are discussed, as is the problem of a greying professoriate. Part 2 describes the academic debate about ICT use in higher education. Chapter Three explains the Delphi method, its roots in futurology and its history, and how it is modified for use in this study. A comparison of Delphi and other survey methodologies is made. The importance of 21  anonymity, feedback and iteration in the Delphi process is described, as are the qualitative and quantitative research procedures. The rationale for panel size, its demographics and criteria for selection of experts are outlined, as is a modification of the classical Delphi to include three panel subgroups. The need for and the design and development process for a new set of web-based Delphi instruments are explained. Section 2 includes Chapters Four to Seven. Chapter Four describes and illustrates the data collection process, some weaknesses of this process, what I have learned and recommendations for future Delphi research. Items are identified by the level of consensus achieved on probability, importance and timing. Chapters Five, Six, and Seven present the results of the Delphi data collection which fall into three major categories—Institutional Issues (Chapter Five), Faculty and Staff Issues (Chapter Six), and Educational Issues (Chapter Seven)—from which fourteen themes emerge. Section 3 contains Chapters Eight and Nine. Chapter Eight provides the discussion and synthesis of the findings on key results in the context of the research question and the literature review. Chapter Nine highlights the key influences, implications and consequences that may be of concern to faculty, administrators and leaders in academia. Conclusions include recommendations for practice and research.  22  CHAPTER TWO LITERATURE REVIEW  The reality of human choices in shaping the future is one of the basic tenets of today's futurists. They do not see the future as predetermined by fate or divine providence, but as constantly being shaped and reshaped by human actions based on human choices. (Edward Cornish)  Introduction  This chapter has two parts. Part 1 covers the literature on the structures and practices of ICT use in higher education. Part 2 discusses the academic debate on the pros and cons of ICT use. American higher education faces formidable challenges caused by innovations in technology, changing student demographics, severe financial constraints, and lingering institutional rigidities (Baer, 1998). At the same time, 1  increased demands are being placed on higher education to provide greater student access to education, better undergraduate programs, and increased productivity. To address both sets of issues, institutions of higher education are turning to new communications and information technologies that promise to increase access, improve the quality of instruction, and (perhaps) control costs (Baer, 1998).  23  PARTI: ICT USE IN HIGHER EDUCATION  ICT use in higher education is considered here in a global context but with a North American bias. While much has been written on Information Technologies (IT) there is a shortage of carefully researched material. In a personal email to me, Bates (February 10, 2000) commented that there is "a great deal of hype and unsubstantiated prediction within the literature, which itself is often ephemeral and poorly researched." This lack of adequate data, as Ehrmann (1999) points out, is a serious problem in higher 2  education. Technologies are changing rapidly and unpredictably, and their cumulative costs are increasing exponentially; meanwhile university budgets remains tight. Despite this, faculty and administrators have made big investments of time and money in ICT.  Most serious scholars agree that profound change will occur through ICT (for example, Bates, 1997). While it is true that some literature on influences of these technologies has to be considered with caution, the literature cannot be ignored. One difference from traditional research practice is that much recent literature is available only online, in journals or in scholarly papers. Because of the accelerating rate of change in ICT, I have of necessity considered these writings.  The International Association of Universities (IAU) International Task Force Report asserts that ICT will create fundamental change in higher education. The task force was composed of recognized international scholars. It concludes that Information Technology will lead to a revolution in higher education, that the Internet will act as a 24  powerful supplement to existing teaching, and that universities must face up to this challenge (Langlois, 1998).  The IAU task force acknowledges that, because of economic and technological change, higher education is becoming market-driven. It also acknowledges that some scholars vehemently oppose this notion. However, according to the task force, a computer literate student body is emerging and these students will want a campus well equipped with new technology and technical support from faculty and staff. Technology's increased sophistication has reached a level where education can deepen and widen the educational process. The IAU predicts that ICT will allow universities to collaborate with others internationally in order to serve a global market. On the other hand, a RAND Corporation study contends that the actual evidence of achievement in ICT use in education is, as yet, slim (McArthur & Lewis, 1998). The IAU task force comments on inertia in higher education, where change is measured in years (or decades) rather than months. One problem they comment on is a lack of recognition, financial reward, or promotion for teachers achieving competency in ICT. As well, the IAU report asserts that the career systems in universities and colleges are still too rigid to incorporate these new instructional possibilities. The conclusion is obvious: the IAU task force believes that universities have no choice but to change with the times.  The use of new technology does not by itself guarantee improved educational outcomes. There is a need for rethinking in education, with a special focus on new designs for learning (Harasim, 1997). Colleges and universities, for decades the  25  custodians of intellectual capital, have a head start and a competitive advantage as they respond to the increasing demand for higher education (Katz, 1999b), but they will not retain this advantage through tradition alone. Universities will face serious competition from other educational institutions around the world and corporations have already begun to compete in the remunerative areas of business and management training. In future the private sector may expand into other areas of education.  Bates (1997) sees fundamental change in many universities and colleges as essential in meeting the needs of both public and students; he asserts that labour costs in universities can be reduced through the use of technology, provided the change is introduced sensitively and carefully. He points to retraining needs as an important driving factor since the best paid jobs of the future will require workers who are mobile, and who can work on a global basis. However, a sensitive transition appears unlikely if we look to the experience of the private sector where organisational change, because of ICT, has involved sharp reductions in staff. Change hit middle management and whitecollar workers especially hard. Companies merged suddenly and unexpectedly and shed workers who previously had every reason to anticipate years of full employment. Often the process of 'streamlining' a business caused a great deal of pain to individuals. However, Bates is realistic in his general appraisal: forward-looking universities have the opportunity to plan ahead and avoid the worst aspects of restructuring. Bates (1997) sees timing as critical and notes that delay may result in rapid unplanned change and the worst kind of staff disruptions. He acknowledges that some people, in the face of such fundamental change, might ask would it not be better to create new institutions from  26  scratch? However, Bates argues that universities have a wealth of talented, well-educated people on staff and it would be wrong to assume that an institution cannot, or will not, respond to change.  Educators and administrators in higher education hold differing views as to how, what and when change will occur, and in some cases they doubt whether change should occur at all. The issues are difficult to resolve and dissent may inhibit the development of ICT learning systems. Baer (1998) describes two models as currently directing efforts 1  for ICT use in universities. Thefirstseeks to improve existing forms and structures, upgrading administrative and library structures as well as the quality and speed of curriculum delivery. The second is a more radical model in which the Internet is seen as invoking change in both the process and the organisation of higher education. In this model Baer refers to student-centred learning, to collaborative international alliances, and to a move towards a campus-free system of online learning. Although, his discussion seems to favour the second of these models, he concludes otherwise. He states that ICT will be seen as a powerful technical tool for improving systems, rather than as a catalyst for institutional change. The author expects resistance, especially in research-intensive universities, because of tradition, bureaucracy, territoriality and regulation. Baer acknowledges that non-degree programs may become the province of other institutions, but he asserts that research universities will retain control over degree-granting programs with or without an extensive use of ICT. Ultimately, the author sees the Internet as a complement rather than as a threat to tradition.  27  In the past, studying by distance education was a solitary job, but Westera (1999) describes change in distance education leading to a more interactive role between students and teachers. Yet the author acknowledges students still want the collegial advantages of association with other students, on-campus activities and face-to-face meetings with professors. Another question for students is, 'which universities will accept online course credits?' The answer is probably that few will, until prestigious universities compete forcefully in the online education market. At that point it may be difficult to deny online external course credits.  Baer (1998) contends that most students will want face-to-face instruction and good social interactions and that students will opt for a mix of on-campus and online courses. Other scholars contend that colleges and universities will continue to react against change, with a 'sense of sustained mission' and 'a belief that at its core the academy is largely immutable' - its costs largely fixed, its purposes well established, its educational and intellectual values well honed. They see these tendencies as barriers to the introduction of ICT in teaching and learning (Zemsky & Massy, 1995). Altbach (1991) would agree, asserting, "There is little chance that the basic structures of academic institutions will significantly change, although some of the traditional academic ideologies and practices are threatened" (p. 316). On the other hand, Westera (1999) cautions against a tendency to preserve and protect the status quo, and suggests a fundamental change in education is at hand.  28  Westera's (1999) prediction of a "fundamental change" is already apparent in many universities; nowhere is it more striking than in the US. Many US universities are now deeply involved in work to improve the Internet. It is not unreasonable to assert, therefore, that within 10 years the use of online technology in higher education will have become commonplace both on- and off-campus in that country. Those who suggest a much earlier transition are probably overly optimistic. Collaborative efforts between academia, the private sector and government will help the USA to maintain its lead in global communication for this decade and perhaps longer. The country's dominance in communication technologies may serve to place universities in the USA at the forefront of change. Those US universities and colleges now participating in the Internet2 initiatives (described later in this chapter) will gain in experience of leading-edge technology and this will make them formidable competitors in the global marketplace.  Whether or not Canada will follow the same path as the USA requires reflection. Because of the proximity, size and strength of the USA, Canada has tended to follow the lead of its neighbour, usually with a lag of a few years. But this pattern did not happen in higher education. Skolnik and Jones (1992), in examining differences between public/private university arrangements in the USA and Canada, comment that longstanding differences in higher education between Canada and the United States are rooted in the respective organizing principles of the two North American nations. Canada was an entity before 1776. The USA is a country of revolution while Canada derived its title to rule from a monarchy linked with a church establishment. The roots of the USA led to its anti-statism, individualism, populism, and egalitarianism, whereas  29  Canada is seen by the authors as more class-conscious, elitist, law-abiding, statist and collectivity-oriented. They comment that the governments and the respective national ethos that developed from these contrasting roots have led to two different university systems. For instance, there are few private universities in Canada whereas about half of the universities in the USA are private, and of those about three-quarters are churchaffiliated. The two countries place differing values on social order as against individual liberty. Canada's publicly funded educational system has less differentiation (except in quality) between its institutions of higher education than does the USA's. The authors suggest that in Canada there is an emphasis on the role of the university as a form of public utility, and a distrust of private enterprise in education. Skolnik and Jones (1992) also assert that the planning and policy environment in the US is more complex and multi-faceted than is the situation in Canada, where they suggest major decisions result from an interplay between senior officials of the ministry responsible for higher education and university presidents.  The American approach allows a relatively free entry of new universities and colleges into degree level education ,which in turn encourages competition. The Canadian approach is to control the establishment of institutions and so restrain competition. According to Skolnik and Jones the differences between the national characteristics of Canada and the USA may cause higher education systems to play out differently in response to business involvement in education and to the use of ICT. In the US, government involvement in education is viewed with deep suspicion, not surprising in a society wherein private enterprise is seen to be the natural state of affairs. By  30  contrast, Canada, with its collectivist traditions, sees public enterprise in the field of university-level education as entirely appropriate, even when public education has a near monopoly. While the authors have over-emphasized the simplicity of decision making in Canada's universities, there is much truth in their contention that Canadians have given tacit acceptance to an unchanging tradition in Canada's public universities. However, this attitude of public acceptance could change as Canadians expect the country's universities to equip its students well for competition in a rapidly changing world. In terms of personal income Canada is falling behind the USA, so the public will want faculty members, researchers and university administrators to keep abreast of international change. The university will be expected to further Canada's economic goals.  The differences described by Skolnik and Jones (1992) may have a significant influence upon the rates at which educational institutions in the two countries respond to a broadened use of ICT in higher education. Canada may trail behind the USA, and its universities may learn from US experience. However, in a competitive global economic arena where change in ICT is occurring at an accelerating rate, time is not on Canada's side. Admittedly, universities have a different culture than business, and systemic change may be a decade away, but it is not too early for Canadian universities to embark on faculty training and infrastructure development, and to engage in experimental projects in preparation for new forms of competition.  31  According to Altbach (1991) universities are singular institutions deeply embedded in their societies. They provide social mobility to previously disenfranchised groups and are important creators of new knowledge through basic research. The Western university institutionalized the study and production of science and the professor at the centre of the institution has enshrined autonomy. The links between universities and economic systems have been important factors in Western domination. However, Amara (1989) asserts that many citizens are bypassing traditional institutions, because they provide insufficient choices. The rapidity of change because of ICT is unprecedented, occurring in a matter of months, not years. An infrastructure that can adapt quickly to change is essential to survival in the world of ICT. Yet a 1998 National Survey of Information Technology in Higher Education stated that approximately two decades after the first microcomputers arrived on college campuses, American colleges and universities still continue to struggle with computer and IT planning. Just under half of US colleges have a strategic plan for ICT (Green, 1998). The smooth absorption of ICT into higher education will not be easily achieved. I now examine some of the driving and inhibiting factors use of these technologies will face.  Driving Factors for Change  A number of driving factors makes the absorption of ICT into higher education urgent and imperative for many institutions. Altbach (1991) recognises that ICT are both central to and a main causative factor in bringing about radical change in society; they have become driving forces which shape and expand the reach of western business. One 32  factor driving change in higher education is the convergence of communication businesses in the expanding information technology marketplace. Some U.S. universities pioneered the development and scholarly application of the Internet in the 1970s and 1980s. The World Wide Web (WWW) firstcame online in 1991 and effectively 3  eliminated space and time barriers to learning (McArthur & Lewis, 1998). In September 1999 about 112 million people were online in the USA and 201 million worldwide; the latter number had almost tripled in only 2 years. Currently, the US and Canada have 191.7 million homes with internet access, 39 percent of the world's Internet population (Neilsen NetRatings, 2002).  The US Telecommunications Act of 1996 made mergers of monolithic information conglomerates legal and may have handed unwarranted power to media conglomerates. There is an accelerating trend for companies involved in broadcasting, cable television, computers, entertainment, and retailing to combine and gain competitive advantage. This convergence of communication businesses and their drive for expansion has set the stage for corporate competition in higher education. New possibilities have emerged because of alliances and mergers between communication giants (Katz, 1999b; McArthur & Lewis, 1998).  An explosive demand is forcing higher education to look for new delivery mechanisms, including ICT. According to Twigg and Oblinger (1996), an increase of some two million traditional-age college students is expected in the next 10 years. Add to that an increase in older and employed students seeking skill enhancement and  33  continuing education, and the numbers go much higher. Altbach (1991) asserts that demands for access by previously under-served groups will place additional pressure on higher education's bureaucratic, increasingly complex environment and on the efficient allocation of limited funds. The demand for services from universities will continue to expand because of population growth and cultural change, and adult education is also growing rapidly (NEC Statistics, 2002). While mature students may not always be seeking degree programs, they will demand high quality, contemporary courses tailored to specific learning objectives. According to Twigg and Ob linger (1996) universities, in a global market place, may be called upon to serve much larger and more diverse student populations, necessitating a need to operate "online."  Dede (1992) contends that while ICT are eliminating many traditional jobs in business, they are also creating new ones. He acknowledges that some middle management jobs are vanishing and more are likely to go. For instance, the author predicts a dismal future for bookkeepers, forecasting that the majority of routine accounting jobs will disappear within a decade as expert systems automate financial operations. Dede's message is an unhappy one for professionals, especially if they lag behind in those technological advances that are driving the market place. The author asserts cynically that unintelligent workers and nations with obsolete economic approaches will face difficult times. One result of change may be that professionals will be driven to return to universities and colleges for retraining, creating additional demand and foreshadowing inevitable change in the institutions.  34  In the first half of the 21 century it may be necessary for North American st  universities to provide online higher education outside national boundaries. As well, Dede (1992) stresses the challenge of developing a work force capable of operating in a diverse range of cultural settings and in a global market place. Cultural diversity is a strength rather than a weakness, but it can be harnessed only when every group benefits. The USA must overcome deep-seated anger over historic ills, including slavery, before it can fully harness the energies of a large sector of its own people, let alone those from developing countries. But change is occurring in the US: from 1990 - 1995, while the number of 18 to 24 years old white students decreased, the number of Hispanic and Asian students increased substantially (Frances & Pumerantz, 1999). Canada has unresolved problems in the education of its First Nations people. In both countries people from diverse cultural backgrounds now want higher education.  According to an Australian study at the University of Queensland (1999), flexible delivery using ICT has become a big part of the higher education scene in that country over the last few years. This is the result of a deliberate move by government away from elite to mass education. This change in the nature of the student body necessitated a focus on students' professional needs, an increase in 'just in time' learning opportunities and the provision of skill training. In an era of diminishing government funding and strong competition, ICT are driving Australian universities and colleges to develop teaching/learning methods and practices that will enable them to reach larger, wider markets without detriment to either finances or standards. Doucette (1997), Vice Chancellor, of education services and institutional technology at the Metropolitan  35  Community College District, in Kansas City, Mo., comments that one of the principal driving forces change in community colleges is an enormous increase in the training and retraining needs of the existing work force. This could become a reason for education using ICT to move into the core of higher education. Doucette claims that this issue more than any other, forces post-secondary institutions to think and plan differently about their existing student populations. Historically a campus has been defined in terms of buildings. In the future, an ICT infrastructure may add a virtual new campus.  As business worldwide shifts from national to networked global ICT operations, added pressure may be placed on higher education institutions. Strategic alliances in business allow innovative production and marketing methods, expanded communication networks, rapid distribution systems and client centred services. Multinational alliances provide these corporations with not only a competitive edge but also unprecedented access to markets worldwide. There is a disturbing inevitability to the invasion of such alliances into the previously sacred territory of universities. Twigg and Oblinger (1996) contend that a shift toward a consumer-centric learning model is rapidly accelerating, expanding the number of potential course providers. Geographic, social and political boundaries are becoming less relevant, thereby weakening the grip of traditional institutions.  By the year 2000, more than half of the U.S. population is expected to have access to the Internet (NEC, 2002) andl74.6 million Americans are now online (Nielsen/NetRatings, 2002). Over 14.2 million Canadians have Internet access, 40.2  36  percent of Internet subscribers speak English (Global Internet Statistics, 2002), and the global reach and size of Internet use has become a major factor that may drive change in higher education. For instance, expansion of a university's revenue through the development of an online student population may become crucial to the university's survival (Green, 1998). Green acknowledges that online distance education is costly, requiring expensive infrastructure some of which may have a short life span. However, he suggests that online distance education programs might become viable and even profitable, if managed as a business.  Corporations are more comfortable than universities with managing strategic alliances; they constantly seek new outlets and new profits enabled by ICT. The majority of universities do not operate for-profit, but changes in the marketplace for education are driving universities to reconsider their long-term future. Higher education is both a major supplier and consumer of information resources and an infrastructure that can adapt quickly to change has become essential to survival in the world of ICT. Therefore, alliances between universities and the communication industry may become imperative. While corporate/university partners bring differing strengths to the bargaining table, any combination of a premier university and a multi-national corporation will provide a formidable level of competition for higher education in the international market.  Higher education institutions face critical issues involving faculty, their most important resource. Chronister and Truesdale (1991) provide insight into the problem of a greying professoriate in America. Before the 1970s the number of faculty members on  37  US campuses was expanding at a rate of about 20,000 per year. But those peak years were followed by a period during which new hirings were limited to the replacement of positions. As we enter a new century, professors hired in the growth years make up the majority of faculty in higher education. In consequence, US universities are now faced with the retirement of nearly two-thirds of existing faculty by 2009 (Bowen & Schuster, 1986). These professors, mostly tenured, will have to be replaced by talented newcomers. Canada may be adversely affected by a heavy US demand for young professors, and any migration to the USA will deepen Canada's own recruitment problems. In the USA the Age Discrimination rules in the Employment Act of 1986 mitigated against the forced retirement of tenured professors who had passed mandatory retirement age. This uncapping legislation created a change in the contractual relationship between faculty members and the institutions that had awarded tenure. Universities responded by offering beneficial early retirement packages. Unfortunately, as Chronister and Truesdale report, all too often it was the highly productive and most desirable faculty members who took advantage of early retirement. Recruitment of talented newcomers will be difficult for most universities until these retirement situations have run their course. Newly hired faculty will likely bring fresh, independent ideas and will constitute the leadership for academia in the early decades of the 21 century. New st  leadership may overcome lingering resistance to the use of ICT and to a change in the way the academy is organized.  38  Slaughter (1998) comments on education decision making in a technology-driven 4  educational economy. She says that the economics of higher education in the US have changed sharply since the US adopted a student-as-consumer, market model in the late 1970s. Changes in funding methods, in R & D for the sciences and in student financial aid have given federal policy-makers a more powerful voice. Furthermore, the author claims, fields of study and departments regarded as close to the market have flourished while others languished. Changes in allocation policies have increased differentiation and stratification within public research universities; new money is concentrated in techno-science and market-related fields in what Slaughter asserts amounts to a higher education version of supply-side economics. Although higher education institutions and their lobbying organizations have opposed a market-driven approach, by and large they have not succeeded. Slaughter demonstrates how, on one hand, a change in government emphasis towards financing science and technology has caused a more entrepreneurial bent to emerge in university administrations, while on the other hand, it has resulted in lower salary increases for professors in the arts compared with those in science, technology and the professions.  Factors Inhibiting Change in Higher Education  Some factors inhibiting change of organizations may require a reorganization within the academy, while others are the result of technology cost. But some inhibitors may be implicit: an education environment does not want to change. Bill Gates, the founder of Microsoft, asserts that government regulation is the primary inhibiting factor  in ICT. Gates contends that deregulation will be a key to unlocking bottlenecks in the USA's telecommunication infrastructure. Characteristically, Gates wants a global solution to deregulation. Great Britain was thefirstto deregulate its telecommunications industry, a move that resulted in greater competition and somewhat lower prices (Ferguson and Weinberg, 1998).  According to McArthur and Lewis (1998), the greatest barrier to moving higher education onto the Internet and the Web has been technical feasibility. However many administrators and academics perceive the inseparable issues offinancialcapability and ICT cost are inseparable and problematic issues to be the most inhibiting factor in the smooth assimilation of ICT into academia. In the Campus Computing Project survey of 2001, Green (2001) reports a downturn in technology budgets for academic years 2000 2001. Furthermore 32 percent of the survey's respondents indicate instructional integration as the key IT issue while 13 percent identify "Enterprise Resource Planning" (ERP) issues as most important. Unquestionably, high capital costs and operating expenses of ICT are inhibiting factors. Paradoxically, a shortage of capital and revenue can be both a driving force and an inhibiting factor in the use of ICT for higher education. . Although high cost is inhibiting, a lack of resources may drive higher educational institutions to seek new sources of revenue using ICT. For example, they may market specialty courses to student populations beyond an institution's traditional catchment area.  40  In reporting on a 1998 international conference focusing on important issues for a knowledge-based society and the impact of the new ICT, Rubenson and Schuetze (2000) note: The significance of ICTs in driving the emergence of the knowledge society lies in their ability to codify information and knowledge. They enable knowledge to be manipulated to meet a multitude of needs and to be transmitted instantly the world over. The capacity of ICTs to contribute to diffusion of knowledge is enhanced by two facts: they are more pervasive than previous technologies; and the prices are falling and their capabilities increasing more rapidly than for any other technology in history, (p. xi) Although the cost of individual technologies is falling, there is an upward spiral of both cumulative capital needs for technology and respective operating costs in education, costs that are daunting and irrevocably intertwined (Forum Resources, 1999).  Universities may be forced into mega-alliances with more powerful institutions than themselves. According to Frances & Pumerantz (1999) choices about ICT made by budget-strapped institutions may impact severely on other sensitive areas, for example faculty salaries and hiring. The need for constant software updating and systems maintenance, like incessantly hungry mouths, cannot be ignored and will challenge funding. According to the Association of Governing Boards of Universities and Colleges (1995), budget constraints are driving universities to accelerate plans for a partial or total systemic restructuring. The political, educational, and accreditation standings of corporate alliances and university consortia will bring into play attendant ethical and long-term survival issues and alliances that have yet to be fully tested. Global competition may force these issues to resolution.  41  Faced with an increasingly technology-sawy student body, the demand for and costs of retraining faculty and staff will be high. Choosing the content of a retraining program will be fraught with difficulty and sensitive choices. While a teacher's knowledge of subject matter may remain unchanged, his/her role will alter in significant ways. Claeys, Lowyck, and Van der Perres (1998) report that an overwhelming majority of educators they surveyed agreed that in an ICT situation a teacher will become a guide and mentor rather than an information giver. However, uncertainty about change creates psychological barriers as teachers face serious challenges to their well-entrenched, faceto-face pedagogies (Claeys, et al. 1998). Some teachers are concerned about the effectiveness of student outcomes in ICT-driven education. However, this concern may be unfounded, according to research studies. For example, the University of New Brunswick provides a comprehensive directory of online courses. It reports "no significant difference" in outcomes between conventional teaching and education using ICT (Russell, 1999). The Website on The No Significant Difference Phenomenon identifies 355 research reports and a comprehensive research bibliography on the lack of difference in outcomes. Bates (1997) warns, however, that it is futile to compare the learning effectiveness of a program based on technology if it simply seeks to replicate classroom-based teaching and contend that as of 1997, most research had done precisely that. As Bates asserts, an ICT learning environment demands a completely fresh approach, one that uses the empowerment capacities of technology. In turn, ICT use requires an innovative approach to research design and evaluation. All this may increase the need for faculty training in the design and use of ICT-based learning tools.  42  Teachers' unions are resistant to the possibility of threats to job security and to the inferior quality of teaching environments that may result from ICT. Yet any change in traditional teaching methods and practices will call for an open-minded approach to employment contracts by all stakeholders. It is not surprising that the very idea of online education arouses fierce resistance in unions. For instance, the American Federation of Teachers Report (1996) demands that online courses taught by faculty be evaluated through traditional procedures. The union also argues that only a limited number of credits should be awarded for online distance education. The federation strongly opposes the notion of graduate degree programs taught at a distance. Time will show whether teachers' unions will prevail in an era of blossoming technological change led by the US with its determination to go online. Canada's teacher unions may be no more eager than those of the US to endorse online education, so change in either country may involve an uphill fight.  Setting fees for ICT courses just above an institution's marginal cost per student may increase revenue and thus potentially reduce an institution's cost per student. But Frances and Pumerantz (1999) assert that computing costs have the potential to exceed the expense of books and supplies needed in the traditional classroom. This and the cost of tutorial help raises serious questions about the economy of scale claimed by online learning advocates.  43  Political Pressures for Change in Universities  Reporting on Norwegian and international experiences, Tjeldvoll (1999) contends that traditional research universities seem to be in a state of deep transition. The change, he asserts, may cause research universities around the world to move away from a traditional knowledge-based culture toward that of a functionalist service university. He suggests that this shift is to a considerable extent directed by forces external to the university. Tjeldvoll argues that a rationale for change lies in a widespread criticism of universities among governments and industry. Critics claim universities do not respond efficiently or sensitively to the present needs of society in the production of knowledge and its transmission to user groups. According to this author, critics question the relevancy of the present systems education for professions. They ask how effective the university's use of resources is and how cost-consciousness operates in relation to the massive government funds the institution regularly receives.  Tjeldvoll contends that there is an internationally pervasive tendency for governments to exert more direct control over universities than ever before. During the last decade, he asserts, the transition towards the service university has become a movement. This notion of a service university is resisted in academia, but according to the author, the professors are losing control. Tjeldvoll states that a completely new model could be in sight: the complete service university. Here, the administration and management would have full control over the professoriate's total labour and research activities, and there would be an inevitable loss of academic freedom. He asserts that the  44  power relationship has been changed; and that external pressures have reduced the professor's role and power in decision-making. The author does not give much evidence to support his conjectures, but he does provide an interesting view of a university system that may cater to both public demands and research university traditions. Tjeldvoll proposes a tentative framework for higher educational institutions in which, simplistically stated, a university will operate in two parallel modes: Mode (1) the traditional role of the research university with its academic freedoms; and Mode (2) the functional role of a service university. Tjeldvoll comments that along with economic and technological change will come paradigmatic shifts: knowledge no longer can be considered something fixed but rather as something relatively unstable and uncontrollable in our social world. His suggestion above notwithstanding, the notion of a 'service university' will foster formidable opposition.  U.K. Experience with Economies of Scale  Williams (1998) provides commentary on funding experiences in higher education in the UK some of which may be pertinent when considering the difficult decisions North American universities and colleges will have to make. The UK established public funding mechanisms aimed at encouraging universities to expand and enroll additional students at forecasted marginal costs. Universities, in effect, became commercial enterprises in a knowledge industry, selling teaching and research services to the Government. The result was dramatic: between 1989 and 1994 enrolments in universities increased by over 50 percent, a rate of growth unacceptable to the  45  government, and expenditure per student fell by 30 percent. In 1995 the UK government put a cap on further expansion in student numbers, and as a result the total income of universities began to fall. The government also wanted some tuition fees to be paid by the students. The Dearing Committee, which studied the explosive growth in UK higher education, concluded that the only realistic source for additional funding was the student or her/his family, supported by income contingent loans. For Canada there are lessons to be drawn from the UK experience. First, when additional students can be attracted at fees above a university's marginal cost, the UK experience has demonstrated that the cost per student does decline. Second, the notion of an income contingent loan repayment is interesting.  A Central Administration of ICT  Historically, Deans and department heads have controlled their own budgets in making decisions about purchases with respect to ICT. But American colleges and universities have struggled with planning their ICT infrastructure (University of California at Berkeley, 1999). Experience shows that a lack of coordination in ICT management mitigates against the development of efficient and well-integrated ICT systems. Yet adoption of a centralized ICT system remains a contentious issue.  The University of California at Berkeley (UC Berkeley) presents an interesting example. Berkeley's decentralized networked environment had blurred the traditional distinctions between academic and administrative computing. The university found itself  46  with a fragmented and inadequate IT infrastructure mired in unclear policies and technology, along with a failure in budgetary responsibility. Then an extraordinary demand for technologies forced UC Berkeley to re-evaluate its entire approach (University of California, at Berkeley, 1999). As a result, the university found it necessary to vest control centrally under a Director/Vice President of IT, who had the experience and knowledge of the broad spectrum of challenging issues that arise with ICT use in higher education. The job was powerful: the incumbent had to advise on alliances, monitor costs, provide, maintain and update infrastructure, acquire ICT systems and supply support services to faculty, administrators and students. At UC Berkeley, in consultation with Deans and faculty, the Director had authority for ICT training throughout the university. On the other hand, pedagogical control, i.e. the development of new IT learning systems and applications, remained within the authority and responsibility of Deans, faculty and department heads.  UC Berkeley acknowledges that the WWW and the Internet has changed the way people throughout the world will gain access to information and interact. UC Berkeley shares the view of many others that these technologies are changing how we learn, do research, manage our activities, and communicate. The university contends that the impact of ICT is likely to be underestimated. Increasingly, the university's faculty is integrating educational technology resources into most aspects of teaching and learning. UC Berkeley, perhaps more than most, is acutely aware of the inhibiting factors and barriers which have to be surmounted in order to become an effective, globally operating university working in an ICT environment. In sum, the UC Berkeley experience  47  suggests that final authority and responsibility for ICT is best vested in a person and staff fully knowledgeable about ICT use and its challenging issues. The situation at UC Berkeley is neither unusual nor unique, but reflects at some level the experiences and needs of most university campuses.  For-Profit Universities  In the USA there has been growth in for-profit, online universities. Jones University, the first 'Cyber University', was granted accreditation on March 5, 1999, by the North Central Association of Colleges and Schools of the USA. Jones boasts that its content providers include faculty members from Columbia University, University of California (Berkeley and Santa Barbara), Stanford University and Purdue University (Jones University, 1999). Theoretically, a virtual university can be established independent of campus and geography, its students can be drawn from other regions or countries, and its faculty can teachfroma variety of universities and colleges around the world. Baer (1998) refers to virtual (campus-independent) universities as being more ambitious and not pervasive; they rely heavily on the online delivery of complete degree programs. A partial list of Virtual Universities is available online (The Association for Institutional Research, 2002; The American Distance Education Consortium, 2002; and Joint Information System Committee, 2002). Virtual Universities have not been tested over time. On the other hand, a change in the role and status of Distance Education is emerging, and an increased integration of online learning with traditional campus education may result in the adoption of some aspects of a virtual campus.  48  As yet, for-profit, online, and virtual universities do not present a challenge to traditional universities. However, they are growing. For instance, Phoenix University is now the sixth largest in the USA with 125,000 students and over 5,000 staff. It offers three undergraduate and three graduate degree programs in business administration. Phoenix reported a 22 % rise in its 1999 worldwide enrollments (Phoenix University, 1999). Although by no means prestigious, the university is well suited for the specific task of delivering and supporting online education for adult professionals at the jobsite or at home. Given a decade of profitable operation, can Phoenix University build prestige and a strong academic standing? It is an open question, but already senior faculty members from major universities lend their reputations and expertise to online education institutions, for which they are well-remunerated.  Important questions remain unanswered. When, and how strongly, will prestigious universities compete in the online degree granting area? In part, this Delphi panel addresses these questions. Predictably, the initial emphasis by for-profit universities has been in business-related studies, but when prestigious universities do expand to include the liberal arts in their online offerings then other traditional universities may follow. Marchese (1998) gives some indication of the prospective scale 5  of the potential online educational enterprise. He refers to estimates made by Wall Street's Morgan Stanley Dean Witter on "Potential market opportunity." Nearly $300 billion are spent every year on post-secondary education in the USA.  Marchese asserts  that several Wall Street houses have set up 'education industry' practices to attract  49  investors. The author acknowledges that distance education providers claim only 2 percent of this post-secondary market, but predicts that this may quickly balloon to 10 percent, as ICT facilitates larger transactions. According to him, the University of Phoenix's 57 learning centers across 12 states are just the tip of an iceberg. Marchese predicts that Phoenix will not be the one that sinks whole ships because bigger bergs are forming.  Brand names, cultural diversity, market influences, technical sophistication, advertising and the quality control of educational content may all become part of the lexicon of higher education during the 21 century. Is this a reflection of the st  commodification of higher education? In one sense, yes; but this does not necessarily mean a degradation of educational standards.  Government/University/Industry Cooperation Intemet2 and Internet K20 Government, industry and academia in the USA are cooperating to drive ICT systems to ever increasing levels of efficiency, wider broadband, and greater capacity. One aim is to enhance the USA's competitive position internationally. Perhaps the most important North American examples of government, industry and university partnerships are the developments of the USA's Internet2 and Internet2 K20 Initiatives. The objective of the partnerships is to get new technologies—advanced networking tools, applications, middleware, and content—into the hands of innovators across all educational sectors as  50  quickly and as "connectedly" as possible. The Internet^ project is expected to increase the speed of today's Internet by 100 to 1000 times. The programs will keep the US at the cutting-edge of global information and communications technologies.  The existing Internet has generated strong economic growth, high-wage jobs, and a proliferation of high-tech companies. Over the past decade US government R&D agencies, university researchers, and private companies have developed many of today's Internet technologies. These endeavours created multi-billion-dollar industries, some of which will fail because of corrupt practices, bad management or miscalculation. Inevitably, however, others will help drive the knowledge-based global economy. Internet2 will develop incalculably more powerful technology and spur development in many sectors of the US economy using ICT (Internet2, 2002).  The Internet2 Initiative is a university-led R & D project, with over 200 US universities working in partnership with government and industry. Member universities have committed over $70 million per year in new on-campus investment. Internet2 corporate members have committed more than $30 million to Internet2 R & D . To this can be added $100 million of R & D funded by the US government. As well, memberuniversities received funding in the form of competitively awarded grants from the National Science Foundation (NSF) and Science Foundation's Knowledge and Distributed Intelligence program. A companion program, the USA government-led and funded Next Generation Internet Initiative, is related to Internet2 in many areas, for example, the National Science Foundation (NSF) merit-based High Performance  51  Connections program. These also include networks such as UCAID's Abilene and the very high performance Backbone Network Service (vBNS) developed by the NSF and MCI/Worldcom. Internet2 is also a participant in the NGI, Joint Engineering Task Force (JET) that aims at ensuring the cohesiveness and interoperability of all systems.  Participation in Internet2 was made open to all US universities that committed investment to provide on-campus facilities for advanced applications development. That investment was more expensive than many institutions could manage, but in due course the cost of using the technologies developed by Internet2 can be expected to drop within the reach of any institution that has an Internet connection. Canada's version of Internet2 is important. Canada's advanced Internet Development Organization (CANARIE) is developing the world's first national optical Internet. CANARIE's Elearning mission is to catalyze the development and diffusion of technologies, applications and services based on open-systems standards.  The new ICT systems under development in the US and Canada foreshadow change in the way some large universities may operate internationally during the 21  st  century. But sovereign countries can and will assume independent policies for higher education. For instance, Canada, with its history of public education, may ignore some of the drives in education pursued by the USA in the international marketplace. However, too restricted a view of higher education could cause a decline in Canada's role internationally.  52  In McCallum (2000), the Royal Bank's chief economist warns against a 'business as usual' attitude in the Canadian government. He contends that nothing is being done to reverse a trend that has seen Canadian incomes fall from 74 percent of those in the US in 1989 to 61 percent in 1999. He predicts that if this trend continues unchanged for the next 10 years, Canadian incomes will decline to be a mere 50 percent of those in the USA. McCallum states, "We would be doing a disservice to those who built this country if we simply sit on the sidelines and watched Canada become increasingly irrelevant" (pp. Al and A2). McCallum may be politically motivated but Canada has much to gain by investing in higher education, in research and in training its workforce.  Government Control  Kearns (1998) discusses the accountability of US higher education institutions. 6  He explains that there are innumerable expectations, some more tangible than others. Ties to government affect higher education's degree of freedom in decision-making as universities wrestle with a balance between traditions and online education in a marketplace that is becoming global. Kearns comments that many in academia insist that educational institutions must remain entirely independent of specific constituencies in order to preserve the university's cherished role as a bastion of academic freedom and critical thinking. There has been a waning of public support, but the author asserts that an academy should not commit itself in terms of accountability to something as large, diffuse, and fickle as the general public. While the author's assertion about a line between receptivity and capitulation on this issue is valid, the argument that public  53  opinion can be discounted is questionable. Universities and colleges remain heavily dependent on the support they get from the public they serve. However, Kearns does suggest a sensible framework that divides public accountability into four areas—legal, negotiated, discretionary, and anticipatory-with an increasing level of freedom from external control in each successive area.  Slaughter (1998) asserts that weakness in the university system has resulted from a market-oriented bias in government and that universities need to look closely at their own cherished beliefs about what kinds of knowledge merit the investment of resources. Dill (1998) notes that there is a strong preference among faculty members for research over teaching, because most academicians have an intrinsic interest in a particular research area and in their department's reputation. As well, the reward system within universities and colleges favours research over teaching in terms of promotion, future earnings, government grant revenue, etc. However, this favourable treatment of research over teaching in universities may be challenged later as student populations increase and as government alters its priorities. For instance, Canada may direct research funding to more closely support new economic goals. Teaching could be given a high priority as government insists on education that fits students for work in an ICT intensive world economy.  Dill, Massy, Williams and Cook (1996) report that the USA rejected proposals 7  from a National Policy Board on Higher Educational Institutional Accreditations (NPB) that would have linked voluntary regulation in universities and colleges with measurable  54  improvements in student achievement. These authors assert that the public des not see academic quality so much in terms of the academic accomplishments of individual teachers, but rather in the light of the collective impact of academic programs on the skills and accomplishments of post-secondary graduates. In the US the responsibility for educational quality still rests with the collegial parties on each campus. Dill, et al. assert, however, that self-regulation of educational quality has been undermined because of a 'hallowed collegiality'-a determined pursuit by faculty of discretionary time, academic specialisation, and a rigid retention of traditional, centralised regulatory control within universities. Nevertheless, it has to be acknowledged that the autonomy of faculty members, research and allocated discretionary time are primary attractors when recruiting researchers who will bring prestige to colleges and universities.  According to Dill, et. al., a process for external assessment has been implemented in both England and the Netherlands despite strong objections from faculty and administrations. For instance, the UK government acted, on the public's behalf, as a monopolistic purchaser of educational products and thus theoretically acquired the power to monitor quality. However, the traditional question about the evaluative state is whether government agencies can be trusted to act in the interest of the public. Problems include the introduction of yet another level of governance and bureaucracy into an already overburdened educational system and an erosion of academic freedom. By contrast with the UK, US and Canadian evaluation models rely on a number of competitive institutional arrangements and their research grants rely heavily on a highly competitive situation which concentrates on internal peer review.  55  Innovation Adoption in Universities  Getz, Siegfreid and Anderson (1997) surveyed 238 colleges in the USA, estimating their rate of adoption of 30 innovations. They provide a somewhat detailed analysis of the adoption rates for various departments. The authors found that, on average, about 26 years elapsed from adoption of an innovation by thefirstpercentile institution to its adoption by the median institution. Theirfindingsabout technology diffusion would appear to foreshadow a slow rate of adoption for ICT learning systems in academia. Although these research findings are important, there are countervailing factors that may speed the rate of technological adoption:  (1) The revolutionary nature of the Internet, its reducing costs, its improvement in speed and quality, its ubiquity and its broad implications for higher education. (2) The coming emergence of both a computer-literate student body and a young professoriate that will be well trained in ICT use. (3) Possible competition from commercial educational products.  Industry's experience in the rate of technology adoption offers an interesting comparison. Bosworth (1996) examined the use of 13 advanced technologies, in 706 UK companies, comparing adoption with the related professional qualifications of senior management and Board members. Bosworth's principal finding was that neither the presence of qualified professional engineers on the board of directors, nor their 56  employment in leadership roles in the company, was a significant factor in the early adoption of technology. The most important factors leading to early adoption of high technology were foreign ownership, or the fact that a managing director was a 'selfmade' man [or woman]. The parallels in education for Canada may be that pressures to adopt ICTs may come from competition by the USA. While it is difficult to imagine an enterprise with more PhDs than higher education, the adoption rate of ICT may have more to do with the personal leadership of a dynamic individual than with the qualifications of its senate, academic or administrative staff.  Getz, Siegfreid and Anderson (1997) comment that on average, higher education seems to take three times longer than US industries in adopting technology. Twigg (1994) identifies incrementalism as the favoured course for change by academia and claims it will no longer work in an ICT situation. Clotfelter, Ehrenberg, Getz, and Siegfried (1991) assert that university's graduates contribute to productivity throughout the economy; as well, higher education provides intangible cultural and social elements that are not traded on the markets. A slow rate of ICT adoption is clearly unsatisfactory in an era when rapid change is occurring and universities are expected to be a source of new ideas.  57  Summary  In sum, the literature reveals differences between scholars over the probability and merit of ICT use in universities. Opinions range from those who hold that the academy is largely immutable and well honed to those who assert there will be fundamental change within a decade and a widespread adoption of ICT. There are differences on the likely quality of online offers, as well as union concerns about potential adverse effects of online use for members. The US and Canada, with their differing historic roots, are expected to react to the use of ICT in higher education in disparate ways. The US will take a free enterprise approach, Canada a public one. The US will encourage relative freedom in the formation of new universities; Canada will not. There has been rapid growth in for-profit universities in the US (for example, University of Phoenix) and a merger of giant communication industries which may stimulate further development of such enterprises. Marchese (1998) warns that it will not be the University of Phoenix that sinks big ships, as bigger "bergs" are forming. The expanding needs of previously under-served student populations, including women and minorities, have already increased demand for higher education. These, and education/training for employment to meet government economic goals, will accelerate the demand for teaching. There is a potential for conflict between government and academia over the university's role in re-skilling the workforce in a knowledge-based economy. Government assessment vs. self-regulation may be at stake here as will be academic freedom to pursue research, independent of the economic goals of government.  58  PART 2: THE ACADEMIC DEBATE ON ICT  I believe that this whole exercise of considering the future of higher education is a task of great importance. It will make us all ask the most searching and difficult questions. It will compel us to define a successful future. Having defined it we may well fall short of it. But if we do not define it at all we do not deserve to succeed at all because we have failed to have any sense of direction and will not even know what we would like to achieve. The clearer our vision of what we wish to bring about the more likely it is that we shall design a structure and method of working to help it come about. (Sir Alastair Pil