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Managing water in Jordan : an interactive system dynamics simulation approach Shawwash, Ziad K. Elias 1995

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MANAGING WATER IN JORDAN: AN INTERACTIVE SYSTEM DYNAMICS SIMULATION APPROACH  by  ZIAD K. ELIAS SHAWWASH B.Sc, New England College, 1982 A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL F U L F I L L M E N T OF T H E REQUIREMENTS FOR T H E D E G R E E OF M A S T E R OF APPLIED SCIENCE in T H E F A C U L T Y OF G R A D U A T E STUDIES (Department of Civil Engineering)  We accept this thesis as conforming to the required standard  T H E UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH C O L U M B I A September 1995 © Ziad Shawwash, 1995  In presenting this thesis in partial fulfilment of the  requirements for an advanced  degree at the University of British Columbia, I agree that the Library shall make it freely available for reference and study. I further agree that permission for extensive copying of this thesis for scholariy purposes may be granted by the head of my department  or by his  or her representatives.  It  is  understood  that  copying or  publication of this thesis for financial gain shall not be allowed without my written permission.  Department of O v M L . EK>GrUOE5 EaaOfcThe University of British Columbia Vancouver, Canada  Date  DE-6 (2/88)  Oc^cW  ABSTRACT  Jordan now stands at the door step of a major water crisis. The country does not have enough water for its desired standard of living; nor for the additional jobs and income that should accompany the development of industry, services, and tourism; nor for more irrigation to expand food output for domestic consumption and export earnings. Besides water scarcity and rapid population growth, Jordan faces severe water problems and needs new water policies and management methodologies to achieve sustainable development of its water resources.  Problems include  overdrafting and contamination of aquifers, uneven distribution of supplies, shared water resources, and high cost of development of new supplies. On top of these problems, water managers and current water management practices have not evolved to meet the present and future challenges facing the water sector in Jordan. Management practices have traditionally relied on developing additional water supplies, while financial and water allocation practices relied on conventional management approaches. This thesis recognized that an appropriate water management framework is urgently needed to prevent the social and economic disruptions that could accompany the anticipated water crisis. The thesis attempted to devise a water management framework and a testing platform for Jordan's alternative water management strategies. A review of historic developments in water management approaches has led to a proposed intermediate water management framework aimed at initiating an experimental process with the objective of reaching a suitable long-term water management framework for Jordan. The proposed intermediate framework consists of four components: a set of water sector' objectives governing the day-to-day operations as well as water management strategies;  ii  a unified policy and decision analysis framework; a unified criteria for the evaluation of alternative water management strategies; and a System Dynamics approach for problem identification and the analysis of change. This study focused on the last two components of the intermediate framework: a unified criteria and the System Dynamics approach. An interactive System Dynamics simulation system portraying the complex structure of the water sector provided a platform for "testing" alternative water management strategies in Jordan. A collection of important outputs from the simulation system was used to formulate "Performance Indicators." One or more of these indicators could serve to measure the achievement of the objectives of the water sector. The proposed intermediate water management framework, and the interactive System Dynamics simulation system, described in this thesis, are believed to go a long way towards improving water management practices in Jordan.  The basic methodologies underlying these  management techniques are not too difficult to understand. The availability of interactive computer software packages, such as S T E L L A II, could prove to be of great value to enhance the ability of water managers and decision makers to take better decisions and to better understand and manage this complex resource in an efficient, survivable and sustainable way. This study provides four specific suggestions for follow up work needed to improve the simulation system: uncertainty analysis; expansion and verification of the simulation system; the dynamics of decision-making; and, the use of interactive simulation environments in water management.  iii  TABLE OF CONTENTS  Abstract  ii  Table O f Contents  iv  List of Figures  vii  List of Tables  ix  Acknowledgments  x  1.  INTRODUCTION  1  1.1  Background  1  1.2  Goal, Objectives and Study Approach  2  1.3  Organization of the Report  4  2.  3.  W A T E R IN JORDAN: PROBLEMS, STATUS, SUPPLY & D E M A N D  6  2.1  The Water Resource Problem in Jordan  6  2.2  Present Status of Water Resources and its Development  13  2.3  Water Supply and Future Demand  14  2.3.1  Irrigation Water Supply and Demand  15  2.3.2  Municipal and Industrial Water Supply and Demand  16  W A T E R M A N A G E M E N T : PRACTICES, PERSPECTIVES A N D PROPOSED F R A M E W O R K  19  3.1  19  Water Management Practices in Jordan  iv  4.  3.1.1  Water Management and Water Managers  20  3.1.2  Water Resources and Development Management Practices  23  3.1.3  Water Allocation Practices  25  3.1.4  Financial Management Practices  27  3.2  Perspectives on Water Management  29  3.3  Proposed Water Management Framework  38  3.3.1  Overview of Policy and Decision Analysis Framework  38  3.3.2  Overview of the System Dynamics Approach  51  3.3.3  Proposed Water Management Framework  71  JORDAN'S W A T E R M A N A G E M E N T SIMULATION S Y S T E M  76  4.1  Overview of S T E L L A II Model Building Environment  '.  76  4.2  Overview of the Structure of Jordan's Water Sector Simulation System ...  80  4.2.1  The Simulation System Macro Structure  81  4.2.2  The Simulation System Micro Structure  88  4.3  Development of Water Sector's Performance Indicators  122  4.4  Testing Current and Proposed Water Management Strategies  125  4.4.1  Current Water Strategy  125  4.4.2  Current and Water Desalination Strategy  134  4.4.3  Current and Water Import Strategy  140  4.4.4  Water Reallocation Strategy  143  4.4.5  Development of the Yarmouk River Storage System  150  v  5.  CONCLUSIONS A N D R E C O M M E N D A T I O N S  159  5.1  Appropriate Water Management Framework  159  5.2  System Dynamics: Strengths, Limitations and Applicability to Water Management  5.3  160  Recommendations for Future Studies  163  Bibliography  166  Appendix A  Selected graphic displays from the simulation system  Appendix B  Selected numeric and graphic outputs of the performance indicators  182  Appendix C  Selected runs output for the Jordan Valley system operation sector  201  vi  ,  175  LIST OF FIGURES  Number  Page  1  Long-term precipitation distribution in Jordan  7  2  Water stress codes for selected Middle East countries  11  3  Conceptual framework: Integrated water resources planning & policy analysis .... 37  4  Classes of decision analysis  42  5  Decisions & information feedback  55  6  Multiloop decision-making system  56  7  Positive feedback loop contributing to debt accumulation in the M&I water sector in Jordan  57  8  Causal diagram of the key loops in the water utility/ regulator/ consumer system  58  9  A river basin water system  59  10  Feedback loops and systems behavior  62  11  The System Dynamics approach  64  12  Contents of the mental data base  66  13  S T E L L A II Modeling Environment  77  14  Initial Welcoming Message and Instructions of the Simulation System  83  15  Macro Structure of the Simulation System  84  16  The Decision Control Center  87  17  The Water Financial Sector  89  18  Water Supply and Demand Management Sector  96  19  Capacity Expansion Sector  103  vii  20  Water Resources and Supply Sector  105  21  Jordan Valley Irrigation System Operation Sector  Ill  22  Irrigation Development in the Jordan Valley  113  23  The Yarmouk River Simulation System  117  24  Schematic of Proposed Storage & Diversion Facilities on the Yarmouk River  118  25  Decision Simulator for the Yarmouk River Development  120  26  Decline of Groundwater Storage - Current Strategy  128  27  Sources of M&I Water Supply - Current Strategy  129  28  Sources of M&I Water Supply-Current & Desalination Strategy  136  29  Effects of Demand Management Programs & GW Balance Policy on Tariff  138  30  Effects of Demand Management Programs & GW Policy on % of Per Capita Demand Supplied  139  31  Source of M&I Water Supply- Current & Import Strategy  141  32  M&I Water Demand, Supply and Shortages - Reallocation Strategy  144  33  Sources of M&I Supply - Reallocation Strategy  145  34  Variation of divertible K A C flows with Mukhibah reservoir storage  154  35  Variation of divertible K A C flows with Wehdah reservoir storage  155  36  Variation of divertible K A C flows with Wehdah & Mukhibah reservoirs storage .  156  37  Variation of divertible K A C flow probabilities with Mukhibah reservoir storage .  157  38  Variation of divertible K A C flow probabilities with Wehdah & Mukhibah reservoirs storage  158  viii  LIST OF TABLES  Number  Page  1  Average rainfall distribution on Jordan  8  2  Existing and target accounted for water  28  3  Per Capita Water Demand  98  4  Jordan's Water Sector Five-Year Investment Program (1993-1997), in MJD  126  5  Current Major Planned Investments in Municipal Water (1992-1998), in MJD, 1992 Constant Prices  127  6  Current Strategy Decision Control Parameters Simulation Setup  131  7  Current and Desalination Strategy Decision Control Parameters Simulation Setup 136  8  Simulation Runs Setup to Test the Effects of RC, LR, P A & C Programs and G.W. Balance Policy on Tariff and on % of Per Capita Demand Supplied  137  9  Current and Import Strategy Decision Control Parameters Simulation Setup  141  10  Summary of Reallocated Quantities, Area Fallowed, and Reallocation Costs  144  11  Needed Curtailment of Groundwater Abstraction (1992), in M C M  147  12  Capital Expenditure of Reallocation of Surface Water  147  13  Capital Expenditure on Reallocation & Allocation of Groundwater  148  14  Reallocation Strategy Decision Control Parameters Simulation Setup  149  ix  ACKNOWLEDGMENTS  The author wishes to express his sincere thanks and appreciation to His Majesty King Hussein and to His Royal Highness Prince A l Hassan for honoring him with a fellowship from the King Hussein Scholarship Program. He is indebted to their kindness and support. The author wishes to express his sincere appreciation and thanks to his advisor, Professor S. O. Denis Russell for his advice and encouragement throughout the course of his research. It can be said that without his insights and encouragement this work would not have been undertaken. The author also would like to thank Professors M . C. Quick, A. D. Russell W. F. Caselton, A . H . Dorcey, and T. McDaniels for their guidance and support. Special thanks are due to my parents, Khaled and Najah, who passed away during the preparation of this thesis. Thanks to them for their great care and encouragement during my studies and throughout my life. This thesis is dedicated to their memory. This thesis would never have been written without the constant love, care and support of my wife Abeer. I would also like to thank my new born child Khaled for bringing me great joy. Special thanks to and appreciation to my brother Hisham for acting on my behalf during my absence from Jordan, and thanks to all my brothers and sisters for their continued encouragement and support. Special thanks to Munther Haddadin and to Fred Durrant for their continued guidance, encouragement and insights. Thanks are also due to Abdul Aziz Weshah, Fawwaz Elkarmi, Abdul Rahman Al-Fataftah and all officials at the Higher Council for Science and Technology in Jordan for their support. Colleagues at the Ministry of Water and Irrigation, the Water Authority, and the Jordan Valley Authority provided valuable assistance and support.  Officials of the Canadian  Development Agency and the World University Service of Canada provided invaluable administrative support. Nabil Inshasi, Brian Grover, David Viveash, Lise Lamontagne, and Camilla Trevisanutto were especially helpful. Many other unnamed persons rendered assistance, the author is indebted to them for their efforts.  1.  1.1  INTRODUCTION  Background Jordan is among the few countries in the world that will soon use up all of its stocks of the  most precious resource of all - water. The country lacks sufficient water supplies for the kind of future it envisions. There is not enough water to irrigate more land area to expand food output that would guarantee self-sufficiency in food production or for export earnings; nor for municipal water supplies that would meet the desired standard of living of its growing population; nor for industrial and commercial water supplies that would secure the additional jobs and income that should accompany the development of industry, services, and tourism. Over the past two decades, several local and expatriate water professionals have examined Jordan's water problems. None of these professionals have found a water miracle for Jordan. Rather, each has recommended actions usually in specific and limited areas. Some looked at the water sector institutional structure, while others evaluated ways to increase the water supply.  Still, others  evaluated water use patterns and ways to decrease system losses and increase use efficiency. Other studies looked at the deteriorating quality of water, while others considered the reallocation of water use. The country has followed through on much though not all of this good advice. The lack of financial and human resources and higher policy priorities have prevented full compliance. The result: is that water problems persist and deepen as the days go by. It is believed that under such conditions the answer must be sought by developing a comprehensive water management strategy for the country. It is not an easy task to develop a management strategy in an ad hoc manner. It could be realized a few years down the line that it did  1  not serve its intended purpose.  The result could be catastrophic: policies would have been  formulated, funds committed, and actions taken, that could be counterproductive. This study does not promise to solve the water problems in Jordan. Rather, it attempts to develop a water management framework that would enable a prior evaluation of the most promising water management strategies and to try to understand the fundamental causes of their problematic features. It is believed that only then can one go on, with some confidence, to carry out components of the most promising and beneficial water management strategy.  1.2  Goal, Objectives and Study Approach The goal of this study is to devise a testing platform for Jordan's alternative water  management plans. To achieve the above stated goal within the resources available for this study, it is thought to be appropriate for the first objective to include the development of an understanding of appropriate conceptual frameworks for water resources management in Jordan. The second objective involves the assessment of the applicability of decision analysis and the System Dynamics methodologies for evaluation of Jordan's alternative water management plans. The third objective involves the formulation of a simplified prototype of an interactive System Dynamics simulation system for managing Jordan's water resources.  The fourth objective is to test a preliminary set of  alternative water management strategies for Jordan. Finally, thefifthobjective involves an evaluation of the insights gained, limitations encountered and providing for recommendations for future research needed. The study was divided into four phases. The first phase consisted of a literature survey on the following three areas of interest: appropriate conceptualframeworksfor water management in Jordan, which included  2  a review of available decision analysis methodologies; applicability of the System Dynamics methodology to management in general, and to water resources management in particular, and the water situation in Jordan. The second phase consisted of the compilation of available data on Jordan's water resources, their use and future demand, and on the proposed management plans that Jordan is currently considering. This information was used in phase three for building the water management system for Jordan. The third phase consisted of building and verifying a simplified prototype of an interactive System Dynamics simulation system for managing Jordan's water resources using the simulation software S T E L L A II.  The management system is a learning, interactive water management  simulation environment that portrays Jordan's water infrastructure and measures the flows of population, water stocks, water supply and demand, and financial performance. The management system provides for the evaluation of dynamic management decisions, requiring decision making on a continuing basis, rather than the traditional approach currently employed in Jordan.  The  management system uses the concept of the positive and negative feedback loops that are central to the use of the System Dynamics methodology in modeling. Finally, the fourth phase consisted of testing and evaluating the simulation system. The tests consisted of running the water management system under several alternative water management strategies and monitoring the structural behavior of the system. Upon completion of the above steps, a method for evaluation of the strategies was developed. The evaluation method depends on development of "performance indicators" designed to give a comparative measure of the performance of each strategy on a unified set of indicators. Recommendations for future research and work  3  required for the expansion of the modelfromthe prototype phase to a full scale structure are outlined and commented upon.  1.3  Organization of the Report The thesis is organized into five chapters. Following this introduction, Chapter 2 discusses  the water resource problem in Jordan and the current status of its development. It also includes a brief assessment of the current supply levels, future availability and demands. Chapter 3 discusses water management practices in Jordan and explores international perspectives on water management. A discussion on the available policy and decision analysis methodologies, and on the role that System Dynamics can play in water management pave the way for the development of an outline for a recommended water management framework that could be used for water management in Jordan. Chapter 4, presents a prototype of Jordan's Water Sector System Dynamics Simulation System An overview of STELLA II model building environment provides a brief description of the software's main features and its alogarithms. Next, an overview of the structure of Jordan's Water Sector Simulation System provides the basic concepts and assumptions employed. This is followed by a more detailed presentation of the system's operating environment.  The macro structure  component presents the general "Mapping Layer" of the system's five main sectors and their interactive decision control center.  The micro structure component presents the detailed  "Construction Layer" of the system. The Chapter concludes with a brief presentation of the simulation system operation and the input controls and output graphs and tables. Chapter 4 also illustrates the potential use of the simulation system for testing some of the proposed water management strategies for Jordan.  Section 4.3 outlines the development of  performance indicators that could be used for the evaluation of alternative water management  4  strategies for the country. Section 4.4 includes testing of four strategies for municipal water supply: the current water strategy; current and sea water desalination strategy; the current and water import strategy, andfinallythe water reallocation strategy. The Chapter also includes the output from some simulation runs for the development potentials of the Yarmouk River storage system. Chapter 5 ends this thesis with an evaluation of the strengths and limitation, and the applicability of the System Dynamics approach to water management. The Chapter recommends steps required for future development of the water management framework and for Jordan's water management simulation system. Included in Appendix A are selected graphic displays of the simulation system. Appendix B includes selected numeric and graphic outputs of performance indicators, and Appendix C includes selected run outputs for the Jordan Valley system operation sector.  5  2. WATER IN JORDAN: PROBLEMS, STATUS, SUPPLY & DEMAND  This Chapter provides a broad overview of the main features of the water problem in Jordan. Initially, the main causes of the water problem are discussed. Then, present status of the main sources of water supply and uses are presented.  The current and potential future level of  development of the available supplies is briefly outlined. Finally, demand projections based on the most recent estimates from Jordan are presented.  2.1  The Water Resource Problem in Jordan Located to the east of the river that bears its name, Jordan is an arid to semi-arid country with  a land area of 90,000 km with variable topographic features. A mountainous range, that separates 2  the desert areafromthe Jordan Valley, runs for almost the entire length of the country in the northsouth direction. East of the mountain range, the ground slopes gently to form the eastern deserts, while to the west, the ground slopes steeply towards the Jordan Rift valley. The Jordan Rift valley extendsfromlake Tiberias in the north, at ground elevations of -220 meters (m) below sea level, to the Red Sea at Aqaba. One hundred and twenty kilometers south of lake Tiberias there lies the Dead Sea with water levels at approximately -405 m. To the south of the Jordan Rift valley, a 25 km coastline stretches along the northern shores of the Red Sea and forms the southern end of the country. The above variable topographic features cause the distribution of precipitation, and consequently water resources, to vary considerably with location. As shown in Figure 1, and listed  6  Figure 1: Long-Term Precipitation Distribution in Jordan, mm/ yr. (50-year average). (Source: Bilbeisi, 1992) 7  in Table 1, rainfall intensities varyfrom600 millimeters (mm) in the northwest of the country to less 1  than 50 mm in the eastern and southern deserts, which form 91% of the total surface area of the country. The average total volume of precipitation that falls on Jordan is approximately 8,425 million cubic metres per year (MCM/year), and it has varied between 6,235 and 10,630 MCM/year. Over 75% of the total volume of the precipitation falls on desert and arid land areas, much of which evaporates very rapidly or flows in flash floods that are difficult and expensive to control. On average, 92.2% of the precipitation evaporates back to the atmosphere, while the remainder flows in rivers and streams as flood flows and recharge to groundwater. From the total rainfall volume, groundwater recharge amounts to 5.4%, while surface water runoff amounts to 2.4% (Bilbeisi, 1992). Table 1: Average Rainfall Distribution on Jordan Zone  Rainfall  Area  (mm)  (km )  % of Total  Total Rainfall Volume  2  ( M C M / Year) Desert  < 100  64,353  71.5  3,414  Arid  100-200  20,047  22.3  2,947  Marginal  200-300  2,050  2.2  513  Semi Arid  300-500  2,950  3.3  1,160  >500  600  0.7  390  -  90,000  100  8,424  Semi Humid Total Source: ROID, 1993.  For review of Jordan's water resources see: Murakami, 1995; Hilmi, 1994; ROID, 1993; Pride, 1992; Bilbeisi, 1992, and the Special Issue of "The Canadian Journal of Development Studies", April 1992, Ottawa, Canada. 1  8  Of the total population of 4.0 million in 1993, 91% lives in the northwestern mountainous part of the country, while 57% make their home in the capital city area of Amman. The population settlement pattern has been heavily influenced by water availability. The uneven natural distribution of water resources and the population concentration in the northwestern region of the country historically resulted in the formation of three regional categories regarding water availability and use: regions where available local water resources were meeting the demand, regions where available local water resources were in excess of the demand, regions where available local water resources were not sufficient to meet the demand. The third area category required the conveyance of water for distances in excess of 100 K m from regions with excess water to regions in distress.  The conveyance systems required the  expenditure of large sums of capital to build water conveyance systems to the major consumption centers.  This transfer of water, from water rich regions to water stressed ones, did not seem  important at the time of the transfer. However, as the days have gone by, and more and more water supplies were transferred from water rich regions, the local population in villages and small towns, who make their living from farming, have seen their local water supply dwindling. They, and their Parliament representatives, questioned the wisdom of the authorities responsible for water resources. On top of the above problems, Jordan shares some of its most important water resources with its neighboring countries: Syria, Israel, and Saudi Arabia. Those shared water resources form a large percentage of the presently exploited water resources that the country depends on for meeting the present and future water demand, particularly for drinking purposes. One of the most important shared waters is that of the Jordan River system. Despite the many attempts and plans for the development of the Jordan, that were undertaken by various governments and agencies since the  9  beginning of this century, none of them actually did materialize. Jordan, as a lower riparian, had to suffer the most. The failure to develop a regional unified approach to manage the water resources of the Jordan encouraged unilateral development by the various riparians. 2  The other important shared water resources are the groundwater resources in the north and south of the country. In the north, Jordan shares the groundwater resources of some of its main municipal water supplies with Syria (Azraq, Yarmouk and Amman Zarqa groundwater basins), while to the south, the Disi nonrenewable groundwater resources are shared with Saudi Arabia. Future incremental development, of the already overexploited, groundwater resources by Jordan's neighbors, would have a detrimental impact on the future availability of these resources to Jordan. Finally, the most stressing water problem of all is the country's population growth. As a result of the rapid population growth, the gap between water supply and demand has been growing rapidly. The country has been witnessing a substantial imbalance in the population-water resources equation. Since the late 1940's, the population growth rate in Jordan has averaged over 8% per annum (ROID, 1993). This has not, however, been all natural. Political upheavals in the rest of the Middle East, and the stability of Jordan have resulted in the migration of several hundreds of thousands into the country during the past five decades. The most recent migration was in the aftermath of the Gulf War. Over 350,000 people returned to Jordan from the Arabian Gulf states (Morris, 1994). This increased the population by 12% in 1991. The impact on population-water resources balance has been a reduction in the per capita share from about 3000 cubic meters in 1948 to about 200 in 1992. Figure 2, illustrates where Jordan and other Middle Eastern countries are heading, if population growth is not controlled, or a water miracle is not been found.  For more details on the historic development of the Jordan River System, see Wolf, 1995, Eaton et al. 1994, and Naff, T et al. 1984. 2  10  As Figure 2 clearly illustrates, Jordan ranks among the lowest in the region, if not in the World, in terms of per capita water availability and consumption. As the years pass, and the population grows, the per capita share of water decreases to even lower levels. The problem is further exacerbated by the fact that Jordan lacks the other important resource found in the region - oil. As shown in Figure 2, the countries that rank lower than Jordan (Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, and Libya) are all oil producing and exporting countries, and their water problems are being solved through either desalination of sea water (Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States) or through expensive water conveyance projects (e.g., the Man-Made River in Libya).  11  10000 r  1  ^*zy*  i  lra(  Pakistan  • Afghanistan  03 CD  £ O CO  Egypt  1000  Iran  : Libya;  t  Israel  Q-  CO O  •&  1  :  :  100  •  u  'Turkey . Yemen * * ' Syria Saudi Arabia \ m Lebanon < * Algeria ? Jordan  CO  0  Morocco *~~s dan  "11"  Qatar  CO  O O  Chronic Water Scarcity Stress  Beyond Water Barrier  General Water  10 10  100  1000  10000  Water Availability/ Capita ( r r O person-year) Source: Falkenmark, 1989.  Legend: 2010  1988  Figure 2: Water Stress Codes for Selected Middle East Countries 1988-2020.  12  2.2  Present Status of Water Resources and their Development The potential of renewable water resources in Jordan is presently estimated to be in the order  of 970 million cubic meters (MCM) per year, 695 M C M / year of which is surface water, and 275 M C M / year is groundwater. Comparison of the per capita shares of renewable water resources in Jordan with those of other countries in the region reveal that Jordan is indeed beyond the water barrier as identified by Falkenmark, 1989 (Figure 2). Besides the renewable water resources, limited quantities of nonrenewable fossil groundwater resources exist in the southern part of the country, over 300 km away from the demand centers of urban Jordan. Recent studies of the nonrenewable resource concluded that a maximum yield of about 140 M C M per year may be attainable over 50 years, after which years the resource will not be available anymore. This estimate is currently being subjected to extensive studies, and is to be adjusted and checked from time to time against plans for use of the same aquifer by neighbouring Saudi Arabia. Extensive surface water resource development has taken place during the last thirty years. Present surface water resource development uses an average of 50% of the average total surface water resources. Existing storage facilities can impound 108 M C M per year, which is about 20% of the average flood flows. Further development of the flood flows is constrained by political, technical and economic difficulties. Development of the over 60% of yet undeveloped flood flows will be dependant on controlling the flows of the major tributary to the Jordan River, the Yarmouk. The Yarmouk river, however, is shared with Syria and Israel, and any future development is tied to the outcome of the ongoing Middle East Peace process. Development of groundwater resources has accelerated during the last decade.  The  development concentrated on the upper and middle aquifer systems (Hilmi, 1994). The sustainable  13  yield of these aquifers amounts to 275 MCM/ year. The majority of exploited aquifers have been depleted progressively in the last few years. Groundwater abstractions in 1992, exceeded the sustainable yield by about 200 M C M . Under such conditions some groundwater resources were subject to degradation of their water quality, therby lowering their future yield (Salameh, 1993). Treated wastewater flows from municipal and industrial uses are utilized for irrigation purposes. The effluent discharge that is made available for reuse amounted to 50 M C M in 1993 (WAJ, 1994). The majority of this flow is used for irrigation purposes in the Jordan Valley. Future municipal and industrial waste incremental flows will require further treatment before they can be beneficially used in irrigation. The overall water potential of useable renewable resources at full development level were assessed in 1993 (ROID, 1993) at 750 M C M per year: 275 M C M / year as groundwater, and 475 MCM/ year as surface water. The surface water resources that remain to be developed (32%) carry a relatively high cost, and are constrained by political, technical, economical and environmental considerations.  2.3  Water Supply and Future Demand Realizing the importance of water resources to the nation's well being, heavy emphasis was  placed during the last three decades on the development of water resources to meet the basic needs of the population. Achievements in the irrigation, municipal and industrial water and wastewater services are remarkable by international standards (see Sec. 2.3.2). However, these achievements are threatened by the unavailability of additional water supplies capable of meeting the growing demands.  14  2.3.1  Irrigation Water Supply and Demand  3  Jordan's agricultural resource base is even much more modest than many arid countries of the World. For a population of 4.0 million in 1992, the average share of a Jordanian amounts to 0.1 ha of cultivable land. The annual and seasonal high variability of rainfall further limits the cultivation ratio to about 50% of the rainfed area. In an average rainfall year, rainfed areas are capable of producing close to 22% of the value of total food requirements in 1992 (ROID, 1993). To meet part of the food requirements of the nation, development of irrigated agriculture has considerably expanded during the last thirty years. The earliest major development took place in the Jordan Valley where surface water resources are available and agricultural land is fertile. Government efforts and policies have succeeded in developing irrigation infrastructure for the irrigation of 34,800 ha in the Jordan Rift Valley. These developments consist mainly of the King Abdullah Canal; five storage dams on the Jordan river side wadis, with a total live storage capacity of 108 M C M ; and the associated irrigation networks infrastructure. However, existing and future development, including 6000 ha developed but not yet commissioned in the Jordan Valley, is constrained by the regulation of the major irrigation source, the Yarmouk river. The equivalent of US$ 700 million has been invested in the development of irrigation in the Jordan Valley since 1960. In the high-lands, private sector investment in irrigation since 1975 approached US$ 150 million. Irrigated agriculture development outside the Jordan Rift Valley has been the responsibility of the private sector. Groundwater resources are the primary source of supply for the irrigation of 32000 ha in the uplands. Other irrigation sources consist of spring and stream flows. Irrigation water requirements in the Jordan Rift Valley amounted to 475 M C M in 1991. O f  Much of the data in this and the following sections arefroma report which the author have participated in preparation. The report is referenced as ROID, 1993. 3  15  this, only 265 M C M were available, or about 45% of the requirement, with the deficit met through the reduction of cropping intensities and leaving stretches of agricultural land fallow in the Jordan Valley. The supplied irrigation water for upland irrigation amounted to 345 M C M in 1991. This requirement was met through the utilization and depletion of renewable and fossil groundwater, and diversion of spring and base flow. Over-abstractions from renewable groundwater in that year amounted to almost 200 M C M , or about 170% of the sustainable yield. The irrigated agriculture water requirement for the sustainability of existing development amounted to about 800 M C M in the year 1991.  The irrigation water requirement for full  development of the Jordan Rift Valley irrigable areas and for the sustainability of existing development in the upland will amount to about 1100 M C M by the year 2000. These demands assume achievement of high efficiency levels through advanced irrigation networks and systems. With the present state of development, irrigated agriculture accounted for about 16% of the value of food consumed in the country in 1990. To have a balance in the foreign trade in agricultural commodities in 1991, additional 2700 M C M of irrigation water supplies would have been needed. The situation will be even worse in the future, as the irrigation water demand to achieve a food trade balance in the year 2010 would approach 8.0 billion cubic meters.  2.3.2  Municipal and Industrial Water Supply and Demand  4  Rapid population growth, improved standard of living, and urban concentration have brought dramatic escalation in the municipal and industrial water requirements. Impressive efforts to meet the escalating demand and to cover the population centers with municipal water services have resulted in the provision of potable water service for more than 95% of the population in 1992.  4  Opt. Cit. 3.  16  The  investment made by the government in municipal water supply exceeded US$ 550 million since 1970. In parallel with the municipal water services the government invested in wastewater collection and treatment. By 1992 about 55% of the population has been serviced with wastewater collection and treatment services. The investment since 1970 has exceeded US$ 300 million. Insufficiency of local sources in the major urban centers by the early 1960's required the conveyance of waterfromdistant sources. As the demand escalated, the cost of providing municipal water increased, and developed sources failed to meet the demand. Rationing of municipal water supplies became the general practice. The situation worsened as the population suddenly increased in 1991 by more than 10% as a result of the Gulf Crisis. As the demand increased, municipal water shortages amounted to more than 40% of the 180 M C M supplied municipal water in 1991. Projections of municipal water demand were made for two scenarios. With the demand unsuppressed, it would amount to over 660 M C M for a population of 7.3 million in the year 2010. If demand is suppressed however, the demand would amount to almost 500 M C M in that year. Suppressed municipal demand in the year 2010 will claim 60% of Jordan's total annual useable renewable water resources. Supplied industrial water in 1991 was about 40 M C M .  Future demand will grow as the  industrial sector develops to satisfy the growing needs in the country for employment and foreign currency earnings. Industrial demand is forecast to grow from the present supply level to 125 M C M in the year 2005 and to 140 M C M in 2010. The combined municipal and industrial demand for the year 2010 will claim almost 75% of the country's total annual useable renewable water resources. Coupled with the increase in municipal and industrial share of Jordan's water resources, wastewater from municipal and industrial uses will also increase. Special attention should hence be paid to wastewater treatment technology. Treated  17  wastewater will comprise a sizeable portion of the country renewable resources. Concerns over water quality should rank high in priority to assure utilization of this resource without adverse social, economic and environmental impacts.  18  3. WATER MANAGEMENT: PRACTICES, PERSPECTIVES AND PROPOSED FRAMEWORK  Chapter 2 has shown that the majority of the accessible water resources of Jordan are already utilized. The only remaining major sources not yet M y exploited are flood waters of some rivers and small streams. The development of these conventional sources would ease the present water deficit, but will not eliminate the imbalance between water supply and demand. In this chapter, development of a new framework for water management in Jordan will be attempted. A brief review of the current water management practices in Jordan and elsewhere will be followed by a discussion on decision analysis and the System Dynamics approach. Later, a water management framework will be developed.  3.1  Water Management Practices in Jordan  5  In this section an overview of the most pressing and problematic management practices in Jordan will be discussed. To start with, a discussion on the desirable qualities of water managers in Jordan is presented. Next, a discussion on the past and present management practices that have prevailed in the water sector in Jordan will be presented. This is followed by a discussion on one of the most pressing issues facing the water sector in Jordan today - water allocation. Finally, the section concludes with a discussion on some aspects of the financial management practices that take place in the water sector in Jordan.  The Majority of information in this section comesfromthe 12 years of experience while working in the water sector in Jordan. 5  19  3.1.1  Water Management and Water Managers The overwhelming majority of the past, present and future water managers in Jordan are  engineers. The role of the water manager in Jordan can be described as that of a solider who is sentenced to clear a minefield from its hazards. Not only has he to have a clear and detailed plan of the locations of each mine which may have been laid previously in a systematic way or in an ad hoc manner, but he also has to know how to use his senses to detect any discrepancies that the plan might include. This is true since the mines planted might have been shifted from their place due flooding or ground movements. It is well known that the probability of a mine soldier ending up disabled is very high. This is true for water managers in Jordan as well. During the last ten years, there have been a phenomenal number of high ranking appointments in the water sector in Jordan, which were accompanied by several complete overhauls of the organizational structures of water management institutions. In fact, there is another overhaul just ahead (1995). The causes, is that none of Jordan's past water managers had a clear plan for the "mines" that lay ahead, nor a "sensory instrument" that could guide them to a better path. To rely on a good plan, the solider must use his senses, to examine the environment that surrounds him very carefully, and learn the indications that this environment has to offer. As an example, if he sees traces of a fresh stream that has worked its way through the minefield, then he would sense that a shift in mines location might have occurred. Similarly, if he follows in the footsteps of someone who has made it through that minefield, or learned from past experiences, he would know that it would be a safe route to start with. It is ironic that the first job that I held after graduation involved the clearing of minefields to open areas for irrigated agriculture in the southern part of the Jordan Rift Valley. It seems that the lessons learned from that experience will not fade away.  20  To manage the water problems in Jordan, a water manager has to acquire expertise in several professions: a lawyer, an engineer, a socio-economist, a negotiator, a psychologist, an environmentalist/ ecologist, and last but not least, he has to learn how to be a good team player. The last category is very important, for a water manager without the ability to play effectively with the existing management team is doomed to be burned out sooner or latter. Thefirstrole, a lawyer, is required to enable the manager to understand the significance and meaning of laws and regulations that govern his jurisdiction and limits. Without this knowledge he might end up dragging his institution into endless claims and lawsuits. The details are left to the imagination of the reader. The second role, and the actual profession of most water managers in Jordan, is that of a civil engineer. The role of the engineer is obvious, as an old English saying goes "An engineer can build for a $1 what any fool can build for $2." Nevertheless, a Jordanian water manager will also need to have some hydraulic, hydrogeologic, hydrologic, environmental, electrical, electronic, mechanical, chemical, and industrial engineering knowledge, to name a few. A socio-economist's qualities are needed to understand the interplays that water has in our society today, and how it will be valued tomorrow. The pace of change in today's society is so great that one can barely understand what is going on around him, let alone at some distance, or in other societies. For example, around the time when I was born, my father used to have a thriving business selling drinking water all over Jordan. By the time I was ten years old, piped clean water supply was all over the capital city of Amman. At twenty, Jordan had what was then called "a serious water crisis." At thirty, major water and wastewater treatment works were completed. At thirty-five, very serious and chronic water shortages, water pollution problems, socio-economic disruptions, and legal, administrative and organizational problems surfaced at large. Currently, difficult equity questions  21  arebeing posed to the government by its people: why do you take "our water" away for people to drink in cities? Why do we have to give it away, although the living standards in cities are much better than ours here in rural areas? Why do you have to treat their wastes in our backyards? (The famous Not In My Back Yard (NIMBY) principle). And on and on and on . . . The fourth role, that of a negotiator, goes without need for explanation in many regions of the world. But in Jordan's case, this quality is of prime importance. In his capacity, the "standalone" Jordanian water manager has to negotiate with the government for approvals in hikes in water rates, subsidies, more qualified staff, budgets to complete ongoing and essential new water and wastewater projects . . . etc. In addition, the water manager also has to appear to the public, to tell them why he can only deliver water for two days a week! The water manager also needs to negotiate with rural farmers to reallocate "their water" for drinking purposes, and with the Parliament and Government to mandate this reallocation. He also has to negotiate with the national and international sources of finance for better loan agreements. And last, but not least, he has to negotiate for the country's share of international waters. The fifth role, as psychologist, requires him to understand the behavior of people and organizations (including his) and their perceived intentions. He has to know how to use influence and persuasion, to both protect himself against exploitive attempts, and to use it when the need arises  (Cialdini, 1993). As an environmentalist/ ecologist, the water manager needs to grasp his peers' concerns about our living environment. As water is an essential substance for life, it is imperative for the water manager to understand the underlying natural and manmade systems that affect and are affected by water. Given the above wide spectrum of qualities desired in a water manager, it is no wonder that, under such circumstances, many water managers have fled the water.  22  3.1.2  Water Resources and Development Management Practices During the past four decades, the Government of Jordan has been investing in the  development of water resources and in water conveyance and distribution systems to make this vital resource available for use where and when needed.  Several institutions were created by the  Government of Jordan to provide water-related services. The primary objectives of these institutions were directed toward the development of additional water supplies, by building additional storage facilities and licensing new water users (mainly groundwater wells); building water treatment, conveyance and distribution infrastructure; and the construction of wastewater collection networks and treatment facilities. This has resulted in institutions with extensive expertise in planning and development of individual water schemes, while at the same time, little attention was paid to the development of a comprehensive water management system capable of dealing with the more complex problems of water scarcity and deteriorating water quality. After several stages of evolution and adaptation, the primary governmental organizations in the water sector today are the Ministry of Water and Irrigation (MWI), the Water Authority of Jordan (WAJ), and the Jordan Valley Authority (JVA).  Each  organization is well protected by a law of its own, giving it a mandate over some aspects of water management, sometimes in conflict with its twin sister in the water sector, or with other governmental or private institutions. Notwithstanding the mandate and organizational clarity issues, there are several other issues that constrain effective management of water resources, as discussed below. Although the water resources of the country have been the subject of extensive studies, very few of them were aimed at developing a water management framework that is capable of developing water sector policies and identifying the most promising strategies for dealing with current and anticipated water problems of the country. It is believed that such a system would greatly enhance  23  the ability of water managers in Jordan to deal with current and future problems. Fragmentation of management responsibilities was, and still is, one of the more serious problems facing the water sector management. This fragmentation has resulted in a host of serious problems. For example, the decision to develop new storage and conveyance facilities taken just a few years ago has been subjected to severe criticism by the public and by other government departments. For example, the new extension of the King Abdallah Canal (KAC), which forms the backbone of the irrigation system in the Jordan Valley, has been siting idle since its completion in 1986 for lack of enough quantities of irrigation water supply. The cause was not entirely within Jordan's control, but could have been anticipated with an adequate water management system. The extension has relied on building a reservoir on the Yarmouk river, which, as mentioned earlier, has political constraints, and is not totally under Jordanian control. Other examples concern wastewater treatment facilities. The As Samra wastewater treatment facility receives municipal and industrial wastewater from the capital city of Amman, the city of Zarqa, and their surrounding suburbs. It is the largest in the country with annual discharges of almost 80% of the total wastewater generated in Jordan. Soon after its completion in 1986, and within two years of commissioning, the peak design capacity of the facility was reached, resulting in seasonal flows of untreated wastewater into the Zarqa river system, contaminating several drinking groundwater supplies, and the waters of the King Talal reservoir. The water management sector in Jordan has evolved in an ad hoc manner. No one institution has assumed the sole responsibility for long term planning issues, or to act as a watchdog over the scarce resources of the country. Decisions on water related issue by one organization may well have detrimental effects on the quantitative and qualitative properties of the water resource controlled by an other organization. For example, the diversion of Wadi Wala flows for municipal water use in  24  Amman has reduced the flows and increased the salinity of the downstream flows in Wadi Mujib, which were earmarked for industrial and irrigation purposes. Subsequently, a request for building an expensive recharge dam was put forward to alleviate the negative effects that the foregoing development created.  3.1.3  Water Allocation Practices Most of the studies on the water situation in Jordan indicated that the water resources in the  country are misallocated (Pride, 1993; USAID, 1993, Salameh, 1992; Naff, 1992; World Bank, 1993a; Winpenny, 1994). To an outsider this might appear to be true.  An in-depth analysis,  however, would reveal that this is not really so. It is true that some nonrenewable groundwater resources (the Disi aquifer in southern Jordan) have been put into uneconomic use. It is believed that when the decision was made, it had apparent advantages. At the time, the argument was that by allocating these aquifer waters, Jordan would enhance its ability to meet its goals of food selfsufficiency and national security, particularly in times of political distress. Other resource allocations have to be considered on a case by case basis. For example, the groundwater resources that are currently used for irrigation purposes support rural life style that is very difficult for its practitioners to abandon. In addition, the question of equity regarding the transfer of rural resources to urban use, and the potential consequences associated with rural unemployment, could in turn lead to political unrest, or, alternatively, to the migration of farmers into the major urban centers in Jordan. Other repercussions could include the difficulties associated with retraining and rehabilitation of new city migrants. Other economic factors come to play as one considers the question of economy of scale. The majority of the ground and surface water resources presently earmarked for irrigation are widely  25  scattered, rendering it uneconomical to collect and convey them to major urban centers for drinking purposes. So as mentioned above, it is not an easy matter to deal with the allocation of water resources in Jordan without giving due considerations to equity, economics, national security and incountry rural to urban migration. On other hand, and since water resources are an endowment of the country, there is no justifiable reason for not placing an economic price on water for all purposes, particularly, for irrigation. The issue of equity comes to play under these circumstances. As for equity, farmers in the uplands pay the full cost of developing and running their water facilities. On the other hand, farmers in the Jordan Valley, and those who divert their irrigation water from free flowing springs, have a negligible investment in the infrastructure required. Farm products are all sold at the same prices and in the same markets. So it would not be equitable if the price of irrigation water were set at a uniform rate across the board. Water pricing mechanisms have to be devised to allow for cost differentials in water supplied to farmers according to location and developer. The other equity concern is intersectoral in nature. The water pricing mechanism for industrial, municipal or irrigation purposes should recognize the type of uses that water have been put to, and the structural imbalances that it might create in the macro economy of the country. For example, if water allocated to industrial purposes were to be priced very high, it would have a negative effect on the competitiveness of Jordan's industrial products, which could eventually lead to the migration of capital investment from the industrial sector of the country, and consequently lead to higher unemployment rates, and other unfavorable economic consequences. It is believed that water should be considered as an economic input to the various economic sectors in Jordan by the water management institutions in Jordan. An interesting incident reinforces the above statement. During the drought of the late 1980's and early 1990's, drinking water supplies were in severe shortage. This have led the government to intervene and reallocate irrigation water  26  supplies from the Jordan Valley to municipal uses in the capital city of Amman. The government, however, did not manage to do this action without paying for it. It had to pay the amount of JD100/ hectare to farmers who were requested to forego and fallow their irrigated lands for one season. This incident is very interesting for two reasons. First, it implied that the government can intervene in times of crisis, with minimal farmer outrage, to temporarily reallocate their water supplies to alleviate sever water shortages in another sector. Second, by compensating the farmers, the government has set a precedent for temporarily "purchasing" some water rights from farmers. This implies that there is a hidden water market that could be very important to the future of water resources management in Jordan.  3.1.4  Financial Management Practices Despite the relatively high municipal water price in Jordan, financial performance of the water  sector still ranks low by international standards. In 1991, the municipal and industrial (M&I) water sector only billed for 44% of the water produced (Pride, 1993). Similar figures apply for the past five years. In 1990 a consultant reviewed the unaccounted for and billed for water in Jordan and arrived at lower estimates listed in Table 2 below. The table include targets that the municipal water sector in Jordan is currently striving to achieve. The impact of increasing the percentage of accounted for water can be significant on municipal water revenues. In their 1993 analysis of the capital cost expenditure by the municipal water sector during the past twenty years, ROID have shown that if it were not for the high level of unaccounted for water, the present water tariffs would almost completely meet the capital cost recovery criteria. As discussed later, the water tariffs in Jordan are progressive (increase with increasing metered water use), and they are charged to cover part of the total (capital and operation  27  and maintenance) costs of provision of water and wastewater services.  Table 2: Existing'** and Target Billed For Water, as % of Water Production Target  Existing'*'  Flow Component  (yr. 1987) Metered Consumption  56.7%  80%  Unaccounted for Water  43.3%  20%  - Meter Under-registration  3.8%  5%  - Transmission Losses  2.0%  2%  negligible  2%  37.5%  11%  100%  100%  - Public Use - Leakage, Illegal Use Total  Note: WAJ records shows that metered consumption in 1987 were only 44% of the water produced. The figures in Table 2 shows the consultant estimates, which are lower by 12.7% than the records show. ri  Source: Pride, 1993.  Water shortages have had their effect on the municipal water sector. Billed water revenue has decreased from 270 to 217 fils per cubic meter billed in the period from 1986 to 1990 6  (Shawwash et al, 1991). In the same study, an analysis of the municipal water revenue according to the tariff block structure was carried out in 1991.  It was found that the biggest revenue  contributors were the highest water consumers (i.e., consumers of more than 101 cubic meters per three months cycle). Water consumers in this category accounted for 63% of the revenues in 1989, while they accounted for 58% in 1990 - a reduction of 5%. It was concluded that if a shift in the consumption pattern from a higher to a lower tariff block occurs, there would be a considerable  6  Currency conversion rates: 1000 fils = 1 Jordanian Dinar = $2.0 Canadian.  28  reduction in the billed water revenues. It was thought that as a result of the severe water supply shortages and the water rationing programs (customers were supplied only twice per week) implemented in 1990, high water consumers in the upper blocks were forced to reduce their water consumption leading to a reduction in the billed water revenue by an estimated 2.55 MJD in 1990. Thefinancialperformance of the irrigation water sector in Jordan does not provide a brighter picture than that of the municipal water sector. Unaccounted for water in the irrigation sector ranged from 58% in 1985 to 51 % in 1991 (ROID, 1993).  3.2  Perspectives on Water Management Water planning and management have been evolving since the early days of our civilization.  In Jordan, archaeological evidence shows that man learned long ago to harness nature to improve his livelihood. Structures built in the Bronze age to manage water around 3000 B.C. still stand today in Jordan as witness to man's attempts to manage the most essential substance for his existence. Little has changed since then in the overall concepts on how to make water available for our use.  For example, in the southern part of the Jordan Rift Valley, a complete irrigation system  consisting of a diversion weir, settling basin, conveyance canal, storage pond and a canal distribution system was replaced by an almost identical irrigation system almost 5000 years afterward (in the 1980's). The only difference between the two systems was in the technological improvements in the facilities for the provisions of the supplies - stone and mud canals were replaced by steel pipes, and stone weirs by concrete ones. Water conveyance for drinking purposes also changed little since the early days of our civilization. The famous city of Petra, the ancient capital of the Nabateans and a Center for a flourishing commerce and trade in the area, had a piped water supply from a nearby system of springs  29  just outside the city. The cutoff of the water supply of Petra, however, necessitated its surrender to the besieging Roman forces. The keen awareness of people in the Middle East of the crucial role of hydrological and environmental issues is in part because they inhabit the lion's share of the world's deserts and semiarid regions. The environment under such conditions is veryfragile,and livelihood and progress have always been difficult at best with scarce water resources. From its earliest dawn, human civilization has tended to be riparian in character. From the Tigris and Euphrates, to the Jordan and the Nile Valleys, irrigated agriculture formed the corner stone of the early civic cultures. Conversely, the downfall of the Assyrians and Babylonians followed the environmental degradation of irrigated lands in Mesopotamia. Two lessons can be learned from the above historical citing: first that water development concepts have changed little over the centuries, although technological change has been considerable, second, that the reliability of water supplies and preservation of land and water are essential for the survival of both water resources and its users. Over the last half century, as pressure on water resources has increased, several developments in the conceptualframeworkfor water resources management have taken place. Generally speaking, the conceptual framework has evolved from the simple framework of a single project or source development objective (designed to provide a secure and reliable source of water or power, or for flood protection, . . . etc.), to a complex framework that takes into account society's multiple objectives (which change according to society's demands and values with respect to water use). Before the beginning of World War II, water management in Canada, the United States, and much of the rest of the world, was focused on the single objective of national economic development  30  (Dorcey, 1987; Hobbs et al, 1989) . Water was then allocated in accordance with the norms and 1  practices in each area, with the prevailing concept of "first in time, first in use." The primary focus of development was on large projects that would serve one purpose, with almost no attention to their long term impacts on water quality or other stream uses. The criteria that governed project selection was cost-benefit analysis. The times was ripe for civil and water resource engineers, as they were almost the sole decision makers who determined the capacity and functions of these projects. As the years have gone by, and as the environmental movement got stronger with increased public attention, changes in water resource management objectives and project evaluation criteria started to expand gradually to include, besides National Economic Development, the objective of Environmental Quality, in addition to the establishment of two accounts: Social Weil-Being and Regional Economic Development. At almost the same time multiple purpose projects started to emerge as an alternative to single purpose ones. The other project assessment development that had considerable impact on water resources management practices was the introduction, in 1969, of impact assessment techniques by the National Environmental Policy Act in the U.S. Soon afterward, the techniques proliferated to the rest of the western countries and many other parts of the world. There were two important consequences to this introduction and they are now felt world wide. First, almost no water resource project will be approved for implementation without the inclusion of its social, cultural and environmental impacts in the planning and design studies (Russell, 1994). Second, public participation has increased considerably in the decision making process, particularly in issues related to water resource management and development.  Two excellent reviews on the historic development of water resources management can be found in Dorcey, 1987 and Hobbs et al. 1989.  31  The following decade witnessed considerable involvement of other disciplines in water resources management issues: economists called for economic efficiency, while political scientists focused on the decision making process (Dorcey, 1987). A parallel development in decision analysis techniques, particularly those concerned with multiple objective decision analysis, has taken place since the early 1960's. Applications to water resources management problems did not, however, spread widely in North America and Europe until the late 1970's and 1980's (Keeney et al, 1977; Brown, 1984), and more recently in Jordan (AbuTaleb et al, 1992; Abu-Taleb et al, 1995). Although multiple objective techniques are now widely used in water resources policy analysis, planning and management (Hiple, 1992; Ridgley et al, 1992; North, 1993), the major difficulties are not associated with the techniques or methodologies themselves, but rather in defining the value systems that ultimately determine the outcome of the analysis (Russell, 1980). The evolution of water management concepts continued to expand, with more disciplines having something to say about it. Two of the more interesting approaches were provided by Saha and Barrow (Saha et al., 1981), and Hufschmidt and Tejwani (Hufschmidt et al., 1993). Saha et al. reformulated a previous attempt by Biswas (Biswas, 1978), and White (White, 1972) and presented a conceptual framework for water resource management that consisted of three systems: physical, biological and human. They suggested that the main function of water resource management would be to "ensure that all deliberate acts of intervention are harmonized with this basic need of preserving the integrity of the megasystem." The megasystem being that of the relationships involving "Water, Earth and Man.".  32  In 1994, Shawwash et al. rearranged and simplified the framework to represent three 8  systems: biophysical, socio-economic and institutional. The biophysical system includes all naturally occurring physical and biological processes which together create our natural, dynamic environment. The physical processes determine the spatial and temporal water availability on the surface of earth, while water availability in turn sustains the biological sub-components.  The biophysical system  provides a supply of resources and a sink for wastes from all human activities that together comprise the socio-economic system. The socio-economic system consists of all human activities related to resource utilization and the distribution of benefits and impacts thereof. Many human activities depend heavily on water resources and have in turn a significant impact on the distribution and quality of water. The cause/ effect relationships between activities and impacts have a strong temporal and spatial dimension that has implications for management. With expanding human activities, the need for comprehensive water resource management increases. This includes addressing the ever-changing social distribution of benefits and impacts. Finally, the institutional system consists of administrative, socio-political and legal human sub-systems used to coordinate human activities and relationships and their impact on the biophysical system. The role of water management is to assure that human interventions in the biophysical systems are effective in meeting socio-economic objectives while ensuring desirable levels of ecosystem health and integrity. The institutional structure has to be sensitive to changing values of society, and reflect the developing vision on sustainable development. Hufschmidt et al. presented a "Systems View" for integrated water resource management to meet the "Sustainability Challenge." Their conceptual framework consisted of three main interacting systems: the natural water resource system, the human activity system and the water resource  This framework was developed by the author and his colleagues, Peter Tyedmers and Paul Zanderbergen, under the direction of Prof. H. J. Dorcey while attending the course "Planning for Water Resources Management, (PLAN597)", Winter 1994, School of Community and Regional Planning at the University of British Columbia.  33  management system. Attached to the last system are the institutions and organizations. They have also recognized that "environmental consequences can be assessed in a multiple-objective planning approach that represents a true synthesis of environmental, social fairness, and economic values." Further, they suggested that a "practical alternative is the environmental impact assessment approach in which major impacts on the hydrologic continuum of a specific project are measured and evaluated. Such an assessment should begin at the earliest stages of project planning and continue to the final selection of a project. Means for avoiding or reducing adverse environmental effects should be included" (Hufschmidt et al, 1993). The above perspectives come, primarily, form the academic circles. On the other side of the coin, international developmentfinancingagencies (World Bank, USAID), and some academics, have different perspectives, particularly for developing countries. Their main focus is on the economic value of water, and on pricing water at its economic cost. In his book on "America's Water" (Rogers, 1993), Peter Rogers, a prominent Harvard University Professor and a leading consultant to the World Bank, offers a comprehensive assessment of the U.S. government's role in controlling, regulating and supplying water resources. He claims that the holistic approach to water management offered provides a framework within which policy makers and water managers can operate.  He asserts that during the next decade, the issue of rational water  pricing will be resolved, and an eventual balance between water revenues and expenditures on operation and maintenance, rehabilitation and expansion of water supplies will be achieved. He also notes that decisions on water policy are influenced by technical, economic, financial, institutional and political imperatives. On the technical imperative, he notes that engineers and other technical experts dominate the field and that they carry a technical bias that has led to the tendency towards large infrastructure! solutions to water problems, without due regard to socio-economic, political and social  34  conflicts. On the economic and financial imperatives, he suggests that they are the most important dimensions of water policy and management now, noting that politics will have the upper hand even when discussions are framed in economic terms. Finally, on the institutional and political imperatives, he notes that they have a significant weight in decisions about water and the environment. In yet another perspective from the Overseas Development Institute in London, James Winpenny's "Managing Water as an Economic Resource" (Winpenny, 1994) advocates that the principal cause of the "water problem" is underpricing, and that water has not been treated as a scarce resource. Winpenny offered a policy mix that, he asserts, will assist in the adoption of policies for efficient water allocation. He divided the policy mix into three tiers: enabling conditions - actions to change the institutional, legal and economic framework within which water is supplied and used; incentives - policies to influence the behavior of users directly by providing them with an incentive to use the resource more carefully; direct interventions - through investment spending programmes or targeted programmes to encourage the use of water efficient and water saving technologies. He later developed a criterion that water managers and project analysts may apply to the alternative options outlined above. The criterion consists of efficacy, economic efficiency, equity, environmental impact, fiscal effects, political and public acceptability, sustainability and administrative feasibility. The World Bank and USAID views on water management are closely related to those of Rogers and Winpenny, although with more emphasis on the financial issues and on water pricing, and demand management as the most effective management tools, and on the role of the private sector (privatization) for the provision of water related services (World Bank, 1993a; World Bank, 1993b; USAID, 1993; Blank etal. 1994). A prominent World Bank Division Cheif (Munasinghe, 1990a & 1990b) offered his views on a framework for an integrated water resources policy analysis, planning and supply and demand  35  management issues for the developing countries. The hierarchial framework he offered consists of the three levels illustrated in Figure 3. The first is the "Macro Economy" level, where the water sector is considered to be a part of the national economy, and requires water resource planning and management activities to investigate the links between the water sector and the rest of the economy. The second level in the hierarchial framework is the water sector itself and is treated as a separate entity, and further subdivided into subsectors as shown in Figure 3. The breakdown of the water sector enables a detailed analysis of each subsector while maintaning, at the same time, the interrelationships between those subsectors. In the third level, planning for each subsector takes place. The planning activities are concerned with the assessment of demand forecast and supply requirement and the consequent long-term investment programmes required.  36  MACRO ECONOMY Industry  Transport  Energy  A  A  LINKS Resource requirements Water sector outputs Water sector constraints  Water resources sector  MACRO LEVEL Agriculture  Health  A  A . " *.  j LINKS ; ; Resource avilabllrty ! —^1 Water Demand ; ; National Objectives & ! i 1 constraints ; 1  %  + • WATER RESOURCES SECTOR  •  Flood & Drought Control  Potable Water  Hydropower  Navigation '  7  T  Irrigation Sewerage and Drainage s  Interaction between the water sector & the rest of the economy  Other  Marine and other  INTERMEDIATE LEVEL Water sector Interactions  1  Potable Water Subsector Supply Management  Demand Management  MICRO LEVEL Subsector planning and management  Investment planning  Pricing policy  Operations  Physical controls  Technological methods Loss optimization Supply quality optimization Education & propaganda  Figure 3:Conceptual Framework: Integrated Water Resources Planning & Policy Analysis (Source: Munasinghe, 1990)  37  3.3  Proposed Water Management Framework In this section a recommended water managementframeworksuitable for Jordan is proposed.  The subsection on policy and decision analysisframeworkbriefly outlines the appropriate framework for the rest of the study. A n overview of the System Dynamics approach provides an introduction to the simulation modeling techniques used in this study and which form an integral part of the policy and decision analysis approach outlined in section 3.3.1. Finally the proposed water management framework is outlined in subsection 3.3.3.  3.3.1  Overview of the Policy and Decision Analysis Framework One might question why a civil/ water resources engineer is concerned with policy and  decision analysis? The answer might come from two quotations in a special issue of the National Geographic magazine on the Middle East Water problem: "Fresh water, life itself, has never come easy in the Middle East. Ever since the Old Testament God punished man with 40 days and 40 nights of rain, water supplies here have been dwindling. The rainfall only comes in winter, Inshallah - God willing - and drains quickly through the semiarid land, leaving the soil to bake and to thirst for next November. The region's accelerating population, expanding agriculture, industrialization, and higher living standards demand more fresh water. Drought and pollution limit its availability. War and mismanagement squander it. Says Joyce Starr of the Global Water Summit Initiative, based in Washington, D . C , "Nations like Israel and Jordan are swiftly sliding into that zone where they are using all the water resources available to them. They have only 15 to 20 years left before their agriculture, and ultimately their food security is threatened.""; ""The next war in the Middle East will be fought over water, not politics," U N Secretary General Boutrous Boutrous-Ghali warned in 1985, while he was Egypt's minister of state for foreign affairs." (Vesilind et al, 1993).  The above quotations clearly show the need for a proactive approach when dealing with water issues in Jordan and in the Middle East - the price of ignorance is too high. Policy and decision analysis techniques offer such a proactive approach for the analysis and evaluation of water resource problems. 38  The process of policy analysis is undertaken to aid the policy maker in understanding the nature of the problem and the risks involved, and to provide better insights into it before a policy is stated and adopted. Policy analysis relies on risk assessment and management techniques and takes into account the uncertainties embedded in the policy issue at hand. The policy maker in this study refers to a policy setting entity that could consist of one or more persons or institutions.  Motivations of Policy Analysis In practice, policy analysis is needed for various reasons. Four motivations have been identified to perform policy analysis (Morgan et al, 1990). Under the substance-focused motivation, the policy maker would be interested in obtaining the right answer through better insights and understanding of the problem. This would enable him to take a rational and educated decision. Position-focused motivations are carried out to enhance and support one's views and positions when involved in an adversarial situation. This motivation, as the former one provides understanding and insights into the problem under analysis but is somewhat limited by one's views. Process-focused motivation stems from the need of the host to enhance his image; is required by law; is expected to be done, or because there is nothing else to do while something must be done. The last category is the analyst-focused motivation. This category is carried out to provide the analyst with enjoyment, professional recognition, and rewards; or can advance and demonstrate the state-of-art in the field. Sometimes it is done because it is the analyst's job or because it is the only thing he knows how to do. Morgan and Henrion, who are considered authorities in quantitative risk and policy analysis, offered an interesting process in the form of "Ten Commandments" for good policy analysis (Morgan et al, 1990). As they seem to apply to water management problems, they are listed here for clarity.  39  "Ten Commandments" for good Policy analysis 1.  Do your homework with literature, experts, and users  2.  Let the problem drive the analysis.  3.  Make the analysis as simple as possible, but no simpler.  4.  Identity all significant assumptions.  5.  Be explicit about decision criteria and policy strategies.  6.  Be explicit about uncertainties.  7.  Perform systematic sensitivity and uncertainty analysis.  8.  Iteratively refine the problem statement and the analysis.  9.  Document clearly and completely.  10  Expose the work to peer review.  Source: Morgan et a I. 1990  Decision Analysis Although humans have been making decisions since the early days of their existence, decision analysis theory is relatively new. Many of its founding fathers are still alive today. Several methods of decision analysis exist today, and they can be classified according to the complexity of the problem, in terms of the number of objectives and the numbers of decision makers involved (Hipel, 1992). Many decisions that confront a water resource professional are typically that of the single objective (e.g., minimize the cost of a water structure; optimize the size or the operation of a water network or a reservoir... etc.). To aid the professional in making his/ her decision, analytical techniques are usually employed in the form of deterministic, quantitative and probabilistic models. This class of decision techniques relies primarily on analogies that describe the decision parameters and on standards and rules that spell out the procedures to be followed in formalizing them. Another class of decision techniques involves the analysis of several alternative actions that could be taken to satisfy several objectives. In water resource management, this class of decision  40  analysis is sometimes employed by a professional, or an organization, to decide on an alternative that optimizes their objectives. A standard method developed over the years is the multiobjective decision analysis. With this type of analysis, subjective and objective information are used concurrently for selecting the more preferred alternative. Two other classes of decision analysis involve two or more decision makers and are usually called group decisions or collective decisionmaking. In cases when the decision makers have one objective to achieve, decision analysts calls this class "Team Theory." In Team Theory each decision maker, like a sport team, is trying to achieve the maximum outcome of the situation (in sport games to win the game). With multiple objectives and multiple decision makers, each decision maker has several objectives or outcomes that he/she is trying to optimize. In cases where agreement between the decision makers on all objectives and the method of analysis exist, the problem can be treated as one of the previous class, i.e. multiobjective decision analysis. If, on the other hand, the decision makers have conflicting objectives and preferences, then there is no known way of constructing a single utility function that would best reflect their choices and value system (De Neufville, 1990). Some analysts argue that the only way out of this problem is by using processes of Conflict Analysis or Dispute Resolution (Fisher et al, 1991; Brett, 1991). These processes rely on interactions among the decision makers. It is true that these processes can resolve decision problems sometimes, but they can be enhanced considerably by incorporation of decision analysis techniques. Figure 3 summarizes the several decision analysis techniques and their main features in terms of the number of objectives and decision makers (Hipel, 1992).  41  Objectives Multiple  One Single Objective  Multiobjective  Optimization  Decision  Decision  Techniques  Analysis  Makers  Team  Group  Decision  Decision  Theory  Theory  One  Multiple  Source: Hipel, 1993.  Figure 4: Classes of Decision Analysis  Multiobjective Decision Analysis Multiobjective decision analysis is concerned with decision-making process that involves several conflicting objectives. The method has been well developed over the years because it was recognized that the solutions to complex problems should include the wide range of competing concerns. These concerns translate into a set of competing objectives that must be considered before the selection of an alternative. Two main reasons exist for the increasing awareness that most decisions are essentially of a multiobjective nature. First, the outcomes associated with management and engineering type decisions are multidimensional. Second, there are many stakeholders in almost all complex problems (Evans, 1984). The purpose of this method is to help improve the quality of decisions by making them more explicit, rational and efficient. Involvement of stakeholders in this process is a major key to assure its success. There are two major roles that multiobjective analysis plays in the process of planning (Hobbs et al, 1992). The first is to gain insights on the tradeoffs by displaying how the alternatives perform on the various objectives. The second is that the process helps the parties involved to apply their values to the problem in a rational and consistent way and  42  to document the process. Confidence in the soundness of the decision can be achieved without going into much difficulties and controversy over which alternative should be selected. The decision analysis process can be divided into five steps (McDaniels, 1992). These include: a.  Formulation of the overall and main objectives of the planned activities,  b.  Clarifying the alternatives for the decision,  c.  Analysis of performance of the alternatives with respect of the main objectives,  d.  Establishing the tradeoffs among the main objectives, and  e.  Evaluation of the alternatives.  In this study (section 3.3.2 and Chapter 4) an approach will be presented to assist in dealing with the third and fifth steps. Step two of the process requires involvement of the decision makers and several experts in the field and can be dealt with at a later stage. Step four relies on the decision maker's value systems, and will not be dealt with here. Finally, a preliminary formulation of the water sector objectives in Jordan will be attempted to cover the first step. It should be emphasized, however, that the decision making process "will not generally determine which alternative is unequivocally preferred. It is designed to inform not supplant, decision making" (Shaffer, 1993).  Group Decision Making As outlined above, there are many tools that can be used in the analysis and design of efficient strategies when the objective they intend to satisfy is defined in technical terms (e.g., sizing of water distribution network). These tools enhance our ability to arrive at better quality products within the limitation of the resources available. They tend, however, to concentrate on more apparent technical variables and leave out other factors that are important (e.g., equity, political and social stability, local  '43  preferences and values as discussed in Chapter 2 and 3). Government and private sector organizations frequently create special committees to make decisions on issues too complex for an individual to manage. The task of these committees is to make recommendations on special problems, some of which might be technical in nature. In specialized organizations, such as those dealing with water resources, members of these committees, if selected from within the organization, they tend to have technical expertise in one field (e.g., water resource exploration, water services . . . etc.). If the decision context is of national interest and is beyond the capacity of one organization, a group of "experts" may be appointed (e.g., decisions on water management strategies for the water sector in Jordan). The appointment is usually done by politicians who are not much concerned with technical details of the options, but rather look at the overall consequences of the committee's recommendations. Background of the appointees usually varies: economists, social scientists, politicians, engineers . . . etc. As a group, these experts provide the resources needed to manage such complex decisions. They also present conflicting views, interests and agendas.  Under these conditions, the challenge is in finding a way to use such conflicts to  produce high quality group decisions. How can group decisions making be enhanced? The first factor that plays an important role in enhancing group decisions is availability of adequate information on the decision problem, and ensuring that such information is considered by the group. A second factor is avoidance of prior positions, biases and external influences from affecting the group decisions. The third and last factor is to assure that there is a mechanism to aid the group in integrating the diverse and conflicting information, preferences and views into an enhanced decision. These are discussed below.  44  Enhancing Availability of Information for Group Decision Making To enhance availability of information, committees formed by government agencies usually take account of making available relevant information on the decision problem. This is done by selecting one or more of the members of the decision group from the agency concerned. If this is not so, then the agency or party concerned with the decision is usually asked to provide all of the relevant information. In addition, active group members with less expertise on the issue use their external relations and contacts to learn about the decision context to become better informed about it. The importance of this activity to the concerned agency, is that it might weaken their position if the wrong type of information is communicated to the decision group and misperception occurs. To avoid such misperception, it is always best to brief the decision group on the problem at hand. This can be done by site visits and presentations that could be arranged by the agency. During this activity a brief outline of the decision problem could be given and a highlight of the important aspects of the decision could be describedfromthe point of view of the concerned agency. Additional efforts by the agency could be to advise the committee to explore views of other parties who are against the proposed decision. From experience, this activity could enhance the process rather than hinder it. It also might provide some new perspectives overlooked, or, on the other hand, might demonstrate to the decisionmaking group how superficial the opposing party views are. One other important aspect of making information available to the decision group is to know what information is relevant and what is not. Data of highly technical nature confuse nontechnical experts rather than help them. If detailed data on some highly technical aspects were required, then it is best to present this data in the most simple way, not complicated equations and models, but simple charts, maps and tables. Throughout the decision analysis process it is recommended that expert judgment be used.  45  The water resource problem in Jordan is complex, and involves many specialized fields of expertise. No one expert could provide the information heeded for reaching a sound decision. Keeney and Winterfeldt identified the need to use expert judgment on complex problems (Keeney et al, 1989). The use of experts in clarifying the consequences of implementation of the alternatives cannot be avoided. However, one has to be careful in the interpretation of expert judgment. Some experts might have a bias toward one alternative or another. It is sometimes beneficial to know the range of expert opinions that exist in their field of expertise. In their conclusions, Keeney and Winterfeldt emphasized that "the value of expert assessment to the study of a complex problem should be appraised in terms of its usefulness for communication, learning, understanding, and decision making."  Avoidance of Prior Biases in Group Decision Making Once the relevant information is made available and the decision group is satisfied, then how could one avoid prior biases and external influences from affecting the group decision? To deal with the problem, it is wise to promote an open exchange and discussion of ideas and perspectives. In this regard, some norms and decision rules could be agreed upon by the group. Perhaps the most important norm for a group to develop is tolerance for conflicting points of view. The group could agree that no negative comments would be made on ideas and views presented by participants during the presentation and brainstorming stages of the process.  A facilitator for the group could be  appointed to oversee that this norm is adhered to. In addition, the facilitator can play an important role in eliciting participation from all members of the group and recording, for internal use, their responses so that none is neglected or forgotten.  46  Preparation for group decision meeting involves knowing one's own interests and position as well as those of others in the group. Positions are what group members want; interests are the reason why.  In a hot debate over the suitability of a dam site that I was involved in, a professor of  geotechnical engineering, from one University in Jordan, argued fiercely that the site selected by the consultant to the project was not suitable at all for building the dam and that a group of his undergraduates could do much better job than the work of the consultant. His position, it later turned out, was not really whether the site was suitable or not, but that he was not happy because he had not been consulted in thefirstplace. Towards the end of the committee's work, and after the committee has made its decision, he confessed that his main intention was to get involved in that project. In their book "Getting To Yes," Fisher and Ury outline a four step method to be followed when negotiating personal and professional disputes (Fisher et al, 1991). The first step in their method relies on separating the people from the problem by dealing with the people as human beings and with the problem on its merits. In doing so, one has to address the group member's perceptions and emotions. Learn how to communicate and build relationships with the group members. The second step in the method is to focus on interests, not positions. The third step is concerned with inventing options for mutual gain to all parties.  This can be done in a collective effort, like  brainstorming of ideas and options and identifying mutual preferences. The fourth step in the method is the setting up of objective criteria based on fair standards and procedures to evaluate options. The method of the book can be most helpful when dealing with rational and consistent people. They however, do not seem to work if someone in the group sticks to his position and refuses to change it.  47  Building Consensus in Group Decision Making & Computer Simulation Environments Disputes over water are growing rapidly all over the world. Typical examples can be seen in shared international rivers, where the parties involved are countries who share the same water resource. They can be also seen at the local level, where the disputants are the various water use sectors of the economy in each country. Opportunities for effective water management exist, and several approaches are available (section 3.2). Techniques for policy and decision analysis are well established, and several approaches were discussed in section 3.3.1.  However, while these  approaches and techniques are important, they are unlikely alone to resolve disputes over scarce water resources. Integrated water management frameworks will only achieve their intended goals if all significant interests and their concerns are recognized and alternative management strategies are' considered. New approaches and techniques are needed with a renewed emphasis on cooperation and participation of a broader range of affected interests. Processes for dealing with differences in values are needed. Simulation techniques have long been used by engineers to solve complex technical problems. Many advances in engineering and new technologies rely heavily on modeling and simulations. Computer modeling has been used extensively by water resources engineers for several purposes: hydrological modeling, sediment transport modeling, water resources planning, reservoir operations, water supply network modeling, water quality modeling... etc. Although these models will continue to play a major role in water resource development and management in the hands of well-trained professionals, very few of them were designed to reflect the nature of water resource management a process that relies on a multitude of professional backgrounds, conflicting interests and concerns. Recent developments in the computer software industry have made several advances in model building environments and capabilities. The focus of these developments is to support the user at  48  each stage of the model building process in a visual friendly environment. They rely on an objectoriented analysis and design approach, which is based on three basic concepts (Garceau et al, 1993): the definition of an object, the concept of class, and the concept of inheritance.  An object is  considered to represent an entity or a function, or an abstraction of reality defined by a specific set of rules. The definition of the object includes a description of the object and the states it may assume. Class is a set of a combination of objects that constitute a system or network of systems. These objects share common characteristics and responses within a class. Inheritance allows a class member to share the same characteristics from a single ancestor. The application of the above concepts of the object-oriented approach to model building for water resource management is of particular interest for several reasons. First, it enables a clear definition and presentation of the relationships and interactions between the model objects. This makes building models of systems easier. Second, it allows better user/ analyst communication. Third, it allows the encapsulation of processes and data, making it easier for future modifications, reuse or replication. Fourth, it allows an easy identification of errors in the basic model building concepts or formulation.  Finally, it allows the model builder, as well as the user, to visualize the  structure of the system being modeled. This gives both of them greater confidence in the reliability of the model output. As will is presented in Chapter 4, two additional features of the new software development are of particular interest to the model builder and its user: animation capabilities, and dynamic interactive tool facilities. Animation capabilities provide the user with a qualitative appreciation of the structural behavior of the modeled system The ability to dynamically interact with the computer model with an interface that contains a set of slide bars and graphical input functions allow real-time gaming with the model.  The real-time interaction capability raises the user's intellectual and  49  emotional involvement in the model as they test the outcome in the light of their own preferences and values (Peterson, 1992). The above features allow the user to devise a decision control center that enables him to test his assumptions, values and preferences in a quick and easy way. The decision control center is important in group decision situations, where the need for building consensus is of great importance, a situation typical of many problems facing water resource management institutions today. Although the potential use of computer simulation environments for dispute resolution in water resources is significant, applications have been limited to a few case studies. In the U.S., Keyes and Palmer applied such approaches to the development of a negotiation tool used as an aid in regional Drought Preparedness Studies conducted by the U.S. Corps of Engineers during the past few years. The simulation environments were used by the Corps for the evaluation of several management policies for water shortages in five different regions in the U.S. (Keyes and Palmer, 1993; Palmer, 1994). Other studies focused on managing the Colorado River for a severe sustained drought through the use of simulation environments as gaming and negotiation tools (Lord, et al,  1994;  Henderson et al. 1994). The above studies illustrated the value in using such tools in arriving at a consensus in group decision situations. It would, then, be of great value if such tools could be included in the structure of water resource management and decision making entities in Jordan and elsewhere in the world. Chapter 4 of this report illustrates a simulation environment that is specifically designed to help policy and decision makers, water managers and other interested stakeholders in assessing the most appropriate water management strategy for Jordan:  50  3.3.2  Overview of the System Dynamics Approach This section overviews the system Dynamics approach. Throughout the section, examples  from the water sector in Jordan are used to demonstrate the applicability of the approach to water management in Jordan.  Introduction & Definition Effective water resource managers generally have a common goal to understand the vast interacting units comprising a water management system. In an attempt to understand such a complex system, or a set of subsystems, it is essential that we develop appropriate techniques to aid our investigations.  There is a whole host of modeling techniques available to water resource  managers, but only few studies have examined what the System Dynamics (SD) approach has to offer to water resource management . SD offers another approach to building dynamic simulation models 8  of water resources systems. SD concerns itself with the dynamic behavior of real world systems. Wolstenholme defined the methodology of SD as:  "A rigorous methodfor qualitative description, exploration and analysis of complex systems in terms of their processes, information, organizational boundaries and strategies; which facilitate quantitative simulation modelling and analysis for the design of system structure and control" (Wolstenholme, 1990).  Thefirstwater resources planning study using the System Dynamics approach was carried out by Hamilton et al. in 1967. The study was carried out for evaluation of the developments potentials of the Susquehanna River Basin east of the United States. The regional analysis study was commissioned by a group of electric utility companies operating within the boundaries of the river basin. The second study that can be found in the literature was carried out by Neil Grigg and Maurice Bryson in 1975. This study used a computer program to model an urban water supply system for the City of Fort Collins, Colorado. See also Grigg, 1985, page 132-137.  51  Fields ofApplication During the past few years, the SD approach has become widely used in several areas of study. Besides it extensive use by the corporate culture in the U.S. and elsewhere, system dynamics has also been applied to two interesting new fields - organizational design (Kim, 1993; Senge, 1990) and education (Forrester, 1994a, 1994b, 1994c). The approach has also been applied to other fields that are closely related and similar in nature to water resources management. In transportation for example, Abbas et al. investigated the applicability of the approach to test transport-related policies in Egypt (Abbas et al, 1994). Also in transportation, Ford demonstrated the use of SD to control a feebate (fee and rebate) system to promote the sale of electric vehicles in the State of California (Ford, 1995; Ford et al, 1995). In the electric utility industry, Ford et al., demonstrated the use of SD models for analysis of conservation policies that the Bonneville Power Administration could use in the Pacific Northwest, (Ford et al, 1987; Ford, 1990). Saeed et al. used SD to test policies designed to alleviate the indebtedness of the Philippines (Saeed et al. 1993). Vizayakumar et al. investigated the environmental impacts of a coalfield (Vizayakumar et al. 92-93). Hagiwara et al. investigated management procedures for aquaculture production in a fish pond (Hagiwara et al,  1994). SD, developed by Forrester at Massachusetts Institute of Technology (M.I.T.), was first used to simulate industrial systems (Forrester, 1961). In 1969, Forrester extended the approach to investigate Urban Dynamics (Forrester, 1969), and in 1971 to investigate World Dynamics (Forrester, 1971). The Club of Rome sponsored the System Dynamics Group at M.I.T. to study the Earth's limits to growth (Meadows et al, 1972). These large scale studies created much controversy at the time of their publication, and the concept fell into disuse. However the same concept can be applied to smaller systems and there has been a revival in recent years. System Dynamics basic  52  methods are now considered applicable to modeling water resource management systems (Grigg et al, 1975; Grigg, 1985). The following is a summary of the basic methodology of SD.  Foundations SD rested on four firm foundations built and used successfully in different fields. These four 9  foundations are (Forrester, 1961): •  The theory of information-feedback systems (servomechanisms). circumstances lead to a decision.  Decisions result in action.  These exist whenever  The action creates new  circumstances that affect future decisions, and so on. The central features of informationfeedback systems are: time delays, structure and amplification. Delays, are concerned with the time gaps between availability of information, decisions based on the information and the actions based on the decisions. Structure is concerned with how the parts are related to one another in a system and how one component relates to the whole. Amplification is concerned with how the response from some part of the system could be greater than would have been anticipated. •  The knowledge of decision-making processes. These have been heavily influenced by the evolution of decision-making processes in military operations, as a shift from tactical decisions to strategic planning took place. Tactical decisions are momentary decisions taken in response to rapidly evolving situations, while strategic planning involves preparation for eventualities, policy making, and setting the ground rules on how tactical decisions should be made.  The ground rules aim at eliminating the shortcomings of human judgment under  For a thorough review of the System Dynamics methodology, see Forrester, 1961, Forrester, 1968, Forrester 1973, Randers, 1976. For a review of the application of SD to closely related field to water management, see 9  Ford, 1990 and Ford etal., 1987.  53  pressure which is characterized by bounded rationality (Simon, 1979). •  The experimental approach to complex systems. This process is concerned with building a mathematical simulation model to portray the structure of the system under investigation. Experiments are then conducted to test management policies and strategies, to answer specific questions and to observe the structural behavior of the system investigated.  •  The computer as a means to simulate the above models. In System Dynamics, the following definitions are employed (Forrester, 1992): Data:  Something given from being experientially encountered; material serving as a basis of discussion, inference, or determination of policy; detailed information of any kind.  Policy:  a formal statement giving the relationship between information inputs and resulting decision flows; a rule that states how day-to-day operating decisions are made.  Decisions:  actions taken at any particular time and that from applying policy rules to particular conditions that prevail at the moment.  Management: the process of converting information into action.  Management, Feedback Loops and System Dynamics As indicated above, the role of management is to convert information into action. The decision making activity is the process of conversion. From this perspective, the manager or the management entity is viewed as information converter. The quality of decisions depends on two important factors: choosing the type of information and the process of its conversion into decisions. Management success is dependent on selection of the most relevant information for the decision to  54  be made and on using such information effectively. The perspective outlined above shows why we should be interested in decision making and the flow of information.  A water management entity constitutes a complex information flow  structure. This information controls physical processes such as diversion of water for a particular use. At each point in the system, local decisions lead to local actions, which generate new information for further decisions to be made. A simple decision and information feedback is shown in Figure 5. This process is of particular importance in water management. For example, actions about the groundwater depletion and  Information  quality degradation can be delayed several years until  Decision!  management is fully aware of the  H Action  seriousness of the situation: data have to be  Figure 5: Decisions & Information Feedback collected, models formulated tested and run,  (Source: Forrester, 1992)  decisions made, and actions taken. Another example concerns decisions to expand supply capacity. The time between realizing that water demand will soon outstrip the supply and expanding the supply capacity could be several years, or even a decade. At the same time, the process can contain amplification, positive or negative. Often, troubles in one specific part of a system might lead to the generalization that the whole system is not working. An example from the water sector in Jordan might clarify this point. A contamination of one irrigation source in the Jordan Valley by wastewater flows in the early 1990's triggered a boycott of all Jordanian crops by Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States. As it turned out, the source was not even used for irrigation at the time of contamination.  55  A water resource system is not, however, a simple information-feedback loop as shown in Figure 5. Instead, it is a complex multiple-loop and interconnected system as implied by Figure 6 (Forrester, 1992). Information is generated, decisions are made and actions are taken at multiple points throughout the system. Cascaded feedback loops among the various parts form the structure of a water resource management system.  Within this system, decision points  extend from the water supply systems and the store keeper to the board of directors of the  Figure 6:MuItiIoop Decision-making System  (Source: Forrester, 1992) management entities, to the Minister of Finance and the international financing agencies. Another example should clarify the discussion. It concerns the international financing agencies' behavior. The poor financial performance of the water service industry, and the severe municipal water shortages in Jordan has caused the World Bank to request the reallocation of irrigation supplies for municipal use, and to overhaul the organizational structure of the water sector in Jordan. Feedback loops form the basic methodology for constructing SD simulation models. For example, Figure 7 shows a positive feedback loop contributing to the accumulation of debt in the municipal water supply sector in Jordan.  56  M&I Capital Expenditure (from other loop)  M&I Water Supplied (from other loop)  Loans  Interest on Debt & Cost Recovery Payments  Legend: (+) & {-y. Feedback Loop + & -:Causal Links  Interest Rate  Figure 7: Feedback loops contributing to debt accumulation in the M & I water sector in Jordan.  The accumulation of debt is represented by the positive feedback loop shown in Figure 7. Debt grows because of increased loans and interests on accumulated debt, which increases debt interest and capital cost recovery payments. This decreases the balance of money available and increases the M&I water costs. The decrease in money balance requires taking more loans. This positive feedback loop receives other negative feedback loops trying to equate revenues with costs. An increase in costs lowers the level of money balance, which requires an increase in water tariffs, and so on. The debt feedback loop is coupled with other loops in reality that can also affect both the money balance and debt levels.  57  Other examples of feedback loop mechanisms also exist in a water management system. These include the feedback from the demand and construction loops, as shown in Figure 8.  Demand _  + & Causal links, +ve & -ve = : Delays  Figure 8:Causal diagram of the key loops in the water utility/ regulator/ consumer system. (Adaptedfrom Ford, 1983)  As a result of an increase in water demand, the forecasted capacity required rises and water planners typically initiate plans to meet the increasing demand. Planning and construction delays prevent the installed capacity from increasing in time. As shown in Figure 8, the construction and demand loops are interconnected to act over time to change the demand as well as the installed capacity. Once the new installed capacity reaches the commissioning stage, changes in tariffs become needed to reflect the cost of water with the new facilities. A delay in approval of new tariffs takes place as this approval has to pass through the legislator or other regulatory agencies (in Jordan an increase in tariff has to be approved by the Cabinet of Ministers). Once the increase is approved, after the delay, the actual price of water increases leading, in turn, to a decline in water demand. As one  58  works his way through these two loops, they eliminate the original change. This characteristic of negative feedback loops that act to control system behavior, has been named demand control loop (Ford, 1983). This loop is most hindered by delays (i.e., regulatory lag, consumer's price response delay, preconstruction planning delay, and capacity construction delay). There are, of course, many other feedback loops that determine the behavior of the water sector in Jordan. Yet, another example concerns the biophysical side. A river basin can be thought of as a dynamic system that is affected by a series of feedback loops and interacting elements making up such a system. Figure 9 depicts a river basin that consists of stores of water interconnected by a series of causal processes such as the elements of the water cycle. Human and animals interfere by abstracting  Attn os. Storage Precipitation Plant & Animal Storage  Throughflow Surface Seepage  Absorbed water Leaf & stem drip  Surface  Intercept'n Storage  , Stem flow  Storage  Lateral gain & loss by overland flow  Uptake Infilitration |& root flow Soilwater  Human  Storage  use  Channel Polluted Water  Storage  Ground water Storage  Deep e = evaporation  inflow  Deep Storage  Deep  Downstream flow  outflow  Figure 9: A river basin water system.  (Adaptedfrom Moffatt, 1991) 59  water for their use, and returning polluted water into this system. Humans also modify the natural setting of the system by either building surface water storage facilities, by lowering of groundwater tables, or by modifying the natural setting of the river basin's catchment area. To manage such a system, one should consider the complex feedback loops and the interactions between the elements  10  presented in Figure 9. Otherwise, the slow processes that interact to produce undesirable system behavior in the long-run will eventually predominate and cause the system to be unproductive and unsuitable for human or even animal use. For example, after many years of development of its tributaries by the countries which share its waters (Jordan, Israel and Syria), the main stem of the Jordan River has become a typical case of the Tragedy of the Commons. Its waters are highly saline (5000 ppm) and polluted by industrial, municipal and irrigation return flows to the point that the remaining flows are unsuitable for any use in their present conditions (Salameh et al, 1994). The Jordan River is a typical example of a natural system for which no body has assumed responsibility for its management, and which, after many years of neglect, has become very difficult to reclaim.  System Conceptualization in SD The basic components that form a SD system are accumulations, rates and flow diagrams. The graphical representation of these components is presented in section 4.1 of this thesis. What follows is a brief description of the functions that these components perform in a SD model. Accumulations in a system are considered as stocks, state variables or levels that can be thought of as reservoirs. These increase or decrease as a result of inflows or outflows, which are termed rates in SD. Rates act as decision functions and they are influenced by one or more sets of  10  Although not shown here, the biological elements plays a major role in balancing the system at its original or  new equilibrium state. See section 3.2 for a discussion on perspectives on water management.  60  information that can be in the form of either a decision rule or a feedback mechanism from one or more levels within the system structure. They control the amount of flow that goes into or out of a level. For ease of presentation, the following example is adapted from the work of Forrester in his instructional book "Principles of Systems" (Forrester, 1968). Levels are integrals of flows over time, while rates of accumulations vary in response to information provided by the feedback loops. Figure lO.a. Shows a negative feedback loop consisting of a level variable, a rate equation, and inflows and outflows of inventory I, and the rate of ordering new stocks, OR. A goal of the desired inventory is set at DI. The goal is achieved by changing the rate as a function of the status of the level, the inventory. The level variable is a record of the integral: (1)  I = I + JOR</r ~ I + £ OR/ Ati 0  0  The order rate during the ith interval must be given as a function of inventory and the goal of the feedback loop, DI: (2)  OR* = / ( I „ D I )  With a constant, AT, the adjustment time which represent the perception of the desirable time to fill the inventory. The order rate equation thus becomes: (3)  OR = (DI -1)/ AT  The closed form of the solution for I can be obtained for this simple case by taking the derivative of equation (1) and solving for I. With substitution of equation (3), this yields: (4)  I = DI - ( DI -1 ) e-"  AT  0  Figure lO.a. shows the exponential approach to DI, which is a typical result of thefirst-ordernegative feedback loop approximated by the discrete integration in equation (1).  61  Examples of a positive feedback loop and a second-order negative feedback loop are shown in Figure 10.b. and 10.c. respectively. A simple positive feedback loop is a sales-training model shown in Figure lO.b., and is represented by: (5)  S H R = S/SDT  Inventory i  IjwentoryGoal,_DI  Order rate, OR ATQ..  Order rate, OR  D l Q -  ATO-  Goods on order, GO  D l Q Receiving rate, RR (^~\.  Inventory I -•Time, t  a. First-order Negative Feedback Loop  Inventory I  Inventory,  Number of salesmen Sales hiring rate  Inventory Goal, DI  SDTQ  Time, t  •••Time, t  b. Positive Feedback Loop  >•  c. Second-order Negative Feedback Loop  Figure 10:Feedback Loops and Systems Behavior. (Adaptedfrom Forrester, 1968)  As the firm hires salesmen at the sales hiring rate SFfR, given as a function of the current sales, S, and a constant called sales doubling time, which is designed to measure the time it takes a salesman to locate, recruit and train another colleague. This system yields exponential growth shown in Figure 10. c. which is a characteristic of the positive feedback loop. The second-order negative feedback loop equations are as follows:  62  (6)  O R = ( D I - I ) / A T , and  (7)  RR = GO/DO  where R R is receiving rate, or the rate of change of L and D O is a delay in ordering, and GO is goods on order that forms an integral part of the order. This formulation yields the damped oscillation shown in Figure 10.c.  System Dynamics Model Building Steps The main objectives of SD models are to organize, clarify, and unify knowledge. The SD approach relies on the premise that all decisions are based on models, the most important of which are mental models. Mental models contain vast amounts of information on the structure and policies of our surrounding environment. Mental models can also reflect untrue images of our surroundings based on assumptions and observations gained from experience. The major weaknesses of mental models are incompleteness, and internal contradictions. The primary weakness, however, is our inability to draw correct dynamic conclusionsfromthe structures and policies contained in our mental models. The SD approach relies heavily on computer simulation modeling to compensate for these weaknesses and inabilities. The system dynamics approach consists of six steps that are usually carried out iteratively. The approach is illustrated in Figure 11 below (Forrester, 1994). The first and most important step is to identify and define the problematic system that is to be understood and corrected. The goal of the exercise is to improve the system and correct its undesirable behavior. A system refers to any set of interacting structures that could be physical or procedural in nature. In the first step, assumptions about the causes of the problematic features of the system are  63  Stepl  Step 2  Step 3  Step 4  Step 5  Step 6  Describe  Convert  Simulate  Design  Educate  Implement  the  description  the  alternative  and  changes in  system  to level  model  policies  debate  policies  and rate  and  and  equations  structures  structure  Figure 11: The System Dynamics Approach. (Source: Forrester, 1994) suggested. The second step involves building a simulation model that translates the structure of the system into a set of interacting components as level and rate equations. In this step an explicit description of the problems identified in the first step is made. Iterations between the first and second step are made to uncover inconsistencies and incompleteness in formulation. Most System Dynamics software packages (e.g., S T E L L A II) displays error messages that provide logical checks against formulation inconsistencies. In the third step, the simulation model is operated and the structural behavior of the system is monitored.  Iterations between step three and the first and second steps are performed until the  model adequately represents the problematic system behavior at hand. Step four proceeds after the model behaves in a similar fashion to that of the system being modeled. In step four, alternative policies and structural modifications believed to correct the problematic system behavior are introduced. The first three steps serve to identify some of these policies and structural modifications. Other policies and alternatives come from the experiences gained by people who have long worked within the boundaries of the system being modeled. These people, however, may suffer from  64  policies or structural changes may rely on exhaustive testing of the model parameters. This strategy is time consuming and focuses the analysis on parameter testing, while the greatest potential for improvements may be achieved by structural changes to the system at hand. In complex models, however, sensitivity analysis of important parameters can give new insights into the problem. Step five attempts to build a consensus on the most appropriate policies that could be implemented to correct the system's problematic features. This, understandably, could prove to be the most controversial of all the steps in the study. In this step, firmly set decision makers' mental models may have to change for the system behavior to be corrected. In this process rest the strengths of the SD approach. The ability to explicitly find and, hopefully, change inconsistent and incomplete perspectives, values and beliefs, is considered the most important strength of the SD approach. It should be mentioned here, that the availability of interactive computer software environments (see section 3.3.1 for details) significantly improves the effectiveness of the SD approach in building a consensus among the parties involved in the decision-making process. Finally, step six is concerned with carrying out and monitoring the effects of the policies and structural changes introduced.  Sources of Information for Modeling System Dynamics relies on three sources of information: mental, descriptive, and numerical. The SD approach focuses on policy statements as a main source of information source and in building a SD model. Mental data contains considerable details on the structural properties of the system under investigation. It also contains information on important decision points in the systems and the policies, either written, or unwritten, that govern the operation and functioning of such system. The written data base can be in the form of reports or releases in the daily and weekly press, and they form a descriptive record of the circumstances that surrounded and led to decisions taken  65  in the past. They also provide a valuable source for the analysis of implicit policies that governed these decisions and actions. Numerical data is used in a SD model to define the values of its main parameters. They also serve to compare the behavior of the model to that of the system under investigation. The numerical data is, however, narrower in availability and scope than either the written or mental data bases. The following is a discussion of the three types of information in the context of water resource management in Jordan.  Mental Data Base A special stress will be put on the mental data base because that information is not adequately appreciated in the water management field. It is enough to imagine what would happen if a water management organization were deprived of all the knowledge in people's heads and if action could be guided only by written policies and numerical information. If the mental data base is so important to the conduct of a water management organization, then a model of such a system must reflect knowledge of policies and structure that resides only in the mental data base of the people who operate and manage the system.. The mental data base have been classified into three categories shown in Figure 12: observations about structure and policies; expectations about system behavior; and actual observed system behavior (Forrester, 1992). The first category concerns observations about the structure and policies governing a system.  One of the  important aspects of building a SD model is to represent the Figure 12: Contents of the Mental Data Base. (Source: Forrester, 1992) 66  structure of the system under investigation, and to include the policies that govern the operation of such a system Often, data about the structure and policies cannot be found in written or numerical form. They only reside in the minds of people who are involved in the day-to-day operation and management of the system.  For example, several times expatriate experts were commissioned to  study some aspects of water management problems in Jordan. These experts usually do their homework and read about the water situation in Jordan. Their readings come primarily from the perspective of another expert, or a colleague. However, once they arrive in the country, they start lecturing on how things should be done (based in their readings and their experience), and some of them even write a good portion of their report before arriving in Jordan. Unfortunately, most such reports end up shelved somewhere making no real contribution to the problem at hand. On the other side of the coin, a water management study was designed to be carried out primarily by local professionals with the aid of expatriate experts. The main body of the work was done by the local professionals, while the expatriate experts played a key role of guiding and directing the locals on means and ways to achieve the goals of the study. As it turned out, the study was later recognized to be one of the most comprehensive and informative studies ever conducted in the water sector. Often details about the various decision points in a system can only be obtained from the people who make such decisions.  In the context of modeling, the interest is on the factors or  parameters that influence such decisions, what each decision-making center is trying to accomplish, what is the consequence of failure to take the right decision at the right time, and finally how these decisions compare to the goals and objectives of the organization or the system being managed. The second category is expectations about system behavior. This is usually not reliable since expectations represent the mental simulations attempting to represent the dynamics of the system,  67  the system structure and the policies and decision of the first category. As mentioned earlier, mental simulations represent an intuitive solution to the nonlinear, high-order systems of integral equations that reflect the structure and policies of real systems, and are usually wrong. For example, the Jordanian Government may grant licences to drill more wells for irrigation purposes from aquifers that are already heavily exploited. The order belongs to the first category in the figure; the order is a statement of policy; that policy is explicit and known. The expectation that this licensing will relieve rural distress on account of depleting groundwater resources belongs to the second category, the expectation that arises from a judgemental simulation of a complex natural resource and socioeconomic system. Frustration with government arises largely because farmers who were granted the drilling licences started complaining about the high costs of drilling in an already overexploited aquifer, while in other areas, the farmers thought that the government was giving preferences to certain class of people, and to certain areas in the country. The above example has been experienced often in Jordan. It resulted in more dissatisfaction with the government since it could not satisfy the great majority of the farming community. The third category of mental information is actual observed system behavior and it is concerned with experience with the actual system This category represents the motivation of the SD study. Once the model is operating, its behavior can be evaluated against knowledge of past behavior of the real system.  Written Data Base The written record is a good source of information about system structure and the reasons for the decisions that were made. The reference here is to the daily and weekly, public press, in which current pressures surrounding decisions are revealed. The nature of a decision restricts the kind of literature in which actual operating policy will be revealed. Decisions control action and are  68  transitory in nature since there is only a single instant in time when one can act. Decision-making is the manager's world of action. It is the world of delivering water, hiring people, constructing water and wastewater facilities, changing water tariffs, granting water use permits, borrowing money, and rescheduling loans. These actions are continuously adjusted by changes that occur in system states such as water shortages, water quality degradation, water system degradation, debt, liquidity, number of employees, and pressure from higher political superiors and the public. Written data can be found at the time when decisions are made. Conditions surrounding the decision situation can reveal a considerable amount of information on the goals, and policies which have governed such decisions.  Numerical Data Base In comparison with mental and written data bases, the numerical data base is narrow in coverage. It does not include any information on the structure or policies that created such data. It also does not show the cause-to-effect direction between variables. Statistical analysis can be carried out on numerical data to reveal the correlation between two and more variables, but the internal causes that might have caused the problem might have been overlooked. Two categories of the numerical data base are useful in modeling. The first, is the specific parameter value.  For example, capacities and delivery rates of existing water and wastewater  systems, budget allocated for operation of the systems, and so forth. Second, numerical information contains time series data on system behavior. Data series are generated by SD models that can be compared in a variety of ways with the real time series data. The generated time series data is less vulnerable to errors in the data than when the data is used to derive meaningful relationships.  69  Final Comments As indicated in this section, the SD approach offers a system managerial as well as physical water management systems and takes into consideration their interaction. Its use in water resource management allows the investigator to explore some deep and intellectually challenging problems. These problems have traditionally been the subject of extensive individual investigations. The approach offers a unifying methodology in tackling the water problem in Jordan. System Dynamics promises to change the way of thinking about how management of the water resources system in the country is or should be done.  70  3.3.3  Proposed Water Management Framework This Chapter has covered a great deal of territory, but then the scope of water management  invites several perspectives and covers wide territory. In this section a summary of a proposed water management framework based on the forgoing discussion is offered for consideration. Water management constitutes an integral part of a nation's overall structure of social and economic activity and requires systematic and coordinated approaches. In the developing and the developed countries, when economic and societal development coincides with resource scarcity, particularly scarcity of a vital natural resource such as fresh water, governing authorities typically behave in ways that tend to deplete the resource, degrades the environment and produces consequent domestic and international tensions. They often behave in ways similar to authorities in water-rich countries. The policies tend to be incremental, inconsistent, and short-term. Water is treated as a technical commodity related only to food, agriculture and human settlements. Emphasis is placed on increasing the supply when problems arise. Such perceptions and strategies make controlling their harmful impacts on the environment difficult. Problems continue to be approached by decision makers who address one problem at a time, from a short-term perspective, often in direct response to strong public pressure. The consequences of resource depletion can be severe. The legitimacy and stability of governments can be undermined, because they no longer can deliver essential services or cope with the social and economic stresses caused by extreme scarcity. What then constitutes a good water management framework? It is believed that such a framework should encompass both the technical and administrative aspects of water management. On the technical side, every effort should be taken to assure the sustainable and efficient use of the scarce water resources. On the administrative side, policy and decision analysis frameworks promise  71  to provide a rational and systematic approach to water management The two aspects should be based upon two principles: ecosystem management and collaborative decision making.  Ecosystem  management emphasizes resource conditions and long-term resource sustainability. As indicated in section 3.2., the role of water management is to assure that human interventions in the biophysical systems are effective in meeting socio-economic objectives, while ensuring desirable levels of ecosystem health and integrity. In an era of democratization that Jordan is currently witnessing, collaborative policy and decision analysis assures that different perspectives and values are included in the process of formulating water management policies, decisions and strategies. How then can thisframeworkbe ingrained into the day-to-day operations as well as the longterm policies that should govern such operations? The process of implementation might take years to be fully appreciated, developed and accepted. It involves the participation of a wide array of concerns, perspectives and parties. But Jordan does not have those years, and must act quickly and efficiently to alleviate the current and intermediate water problems. Immediate water management strategies should then be formulated and implemented.  To aid this process, without a great  compromise of the long-term perspective, the following intermediate framework is proposed to initiate an experimental process with the objective of reaching a long-term water management framework similar to that outlined in the preceding paragraph. The intermediate framework consists of the following components: •  A set of objectives governing the day-to-day operations as well as water management strategies should be developed. Keeney has developed a process he termed as "ValueFocused Thinking" for identifying objectives. It involves discussions with relevant decision makers and stakeholders, and employs several techniques to stimulate creativity in the process of identification of possible objectives (Keeney, 1994a; 1994b; Keeney, 1992). The following  72  main and specific objectives serve to initiate the process:  Main Objectives •  To encourage the use of fresh water in an efficient and equitable manner consistent with the social, economic and environmental needs of the present and future generations,  •  To protect and enhance the quality of the water resource,  •  To promote the wise and efficient management and use of water,  •  To adopt a process to establish a long-term water management framework suitable for Jordan.  Specific Objectives •  To develop alternative strategies to reach the stated objectives.  •  To detennine and meet the detailed water needs of the economy to achieve its targets,  •  To choose the mix of water resources that meet future water requirement at the lowest cost,  •  To diversify water supply and reduce dependence on foreign sources,  •  To meet the national security requirements of reliable water supplies,  •  To supply the basic water needs of the poor, and develop special regions,  •  To save scarce foreign exchange,  •  To raise sufficient revenues from water related sales to finance water sector development.  A unified criteria for the evaluation of alternative water management strategies. A criterion similar to that proposed by Winpenny, 1994, (see section 3.2) should be formulated, discussed and adopted. This criteria should be applied consistently to all alternative water management  73  strategies. The following criteria serve to initiate the process: •  efficacy,  •  economic efficiency,  •  technical efficiency,  •  financial efficiency  •  administrative feasibility,  •  equity,  •  water quality and environmental impact,  •  political and public acceptability,  •  sources reliability and security,  •  energy requirement,  •  sustainability.  A unified policy and decision analysis framework. As discussed earlier, policy analysis relies on risk assessment and management that take uncertainties embedded in the policy issues into consideration. Several decision analysis methods are available today. These were discussed earlier in section 3.3.1. If conditions permit its use, mutipleobjective decision analysis has proven to be the most promising and widely used methodology for analyzing complex decisions. If however, conditions do not permit its use (e.g., the existence of conflicting positions and values of multiple decision makers), then group decision processes, discussed in section 3.3.1, could be employed. A System Dynamics approach for problem identification and the analysis of change. Central to whichever objectives, criteria, policy or decision analysis methodologies used, a consistent and a rigorous method for qualitative description, exploration and analysis of the complex  74  water resource management system in Jordan is needed. The SD approach, described in section 3.3.2., enables the analysis of the water management system in Jordan in terms of its processes, information linkages and feedback mechanisms, organizational boundaries and strategies. The method facilitates quantitative simulation modeling and analysis for the design and control of a structure for the water management system in Jordan. As illustrated in Chapter 4, the approach uses an interactive computer simulation environment designed to help achieve a consensus between the parties involved in setting policies or making decisions for the water sector in Jordan. Section 4.3 includes the development of "Performance Indicators" that could be used for policy design and decision analysis exercises in the water sector in Jordan. Section 4.4 illustrates the use of the system developed in Sections 4.2 to test current and proposed water management strategies.  75  4. JORDAN'S WATER SECTOR SIMULATION SYSTEM  This Chapter provides an overview Jordan's Water Sector Simulation System. An overview of the development software environment, STELLA II", is initially provided, this is followed by an overview of the macro and micro structure of the simulation system. Performance indicators for the water sector are developed in section 4.3, and finally, the Chapter concludes with a sample operation of the model and testing of current and potential water management strategies. The analysis carried out in this Chapter, is governed primarily by two of the motivations listed earlier in section 3.3.1: substance and analyst focused. The reason for these analyses are to appreciate the importance of the analysis in arriving at educated and rational decisions for water management in Jordan, and to provide the author with the enjoyment of doing the analysis and learning in the process.  4.1  Overview of STELLA II Model Building Environment S T E L L A II was developed to provide a set of tools for scientists, planners, managers, to  build their understanding of continuous dynamic processes into simulation models. The process of modeling is conducted without having to write the mathematical relationships underlying the processes being modeled. The software uses the Euler and Rung-Kutta 2 & 4 integration algorithm for its internal calculations. STELLA II stands for "System Thinking Experimental Learning Laboratory with Animation II."  STELLA II is a registered trademark to High Performance Systems Inc.  76  The software runs under the Apple Macintosh and the Windows operating systems. Under the Windows environment, the software requires an IBM PC-compatible computer (486-class processor), Windows 3.1 or greater, and a 4-mega byte of R A M . The software is designed to construct simulation models using a multilevel hierarchical environment. Two major layers were designed for easy interaction with the model builder: the HighLevel Mapping & Input/ Output layer, and the Model Construction layer. The Construction layer contains a facility to go one level deeper for construction of submodels. As shown in the following sections, the High-Level Mapping layer is usually used as a decision, or policy analysis center, while the construction layer is used to construct the details of the model. Equations are automatically generated by the software and are documented in the third layer of the environment. The model building facilities, provided by S T E L L A II, consists of programmable building blocks on the construction layer. The mapping layer contains non-programmable blocks and arrows that represent information and physical flows.  These are automatically created once a sector is  defined in the construction layer. They act in a similar fashion as  c0O  ^  A Sector  influence diagrams do.  STELLA II Basic Model Building Blocks  As illustrated in Figure 13,  A STOCK A FLOW  the three basic building block consists of stocks or reservoirs,  A CONNECTOR A CONVERTER  flows and converters, in addition to  connectors  used to make  A Numeric Display  10.0  connections between the three basic building blocks. The system  Figure 13: STELLA II Modeling Environment  77  8  being modeled can be subdivided into subsystems that can be represented as sectors. Each sector acts as a unit that can be simulated independently from the other. Various output displays can be incooperated into each sector on the construction layer, and on the mapping layer. These include graphical and numerical outputs. The stocks or reservoirs are state variables while the inflows or outflows are used to represent the right-hand-sides of the ordinary differential equations underlying the model. Converters are places to insert functions of variables or define parameter values. Connectors provide a means for informing converters that the independent variables are for the function in question. The stock state variables can be switched to behave like a conveyor, queues or ovens. Conveyors uses time-delay throughput constructs with definable leakage rates. Queues are holding tanks that empty according to demands form the downstream Ovens are tanks that hold their contents for specified periods once their doors are shut under the control of capacity or time parameters. In the software's internal processes, flows represent time derivatives; stocks represent the integral (or accumulation) of flows over time; converters contain the logic controlling flows; and connectors contain the information flow between stocks, flows and converters. A wide range of built-in mathematical, trigonometric, and statistical functions, as well as pulse and ramp input functions are available. Logical, financial, smoothing, and other special types of functions are also available, including random number generators for several distributions and discrete functions. An important feature that S T E L L A II provides in its Authoring Version is the capability of authoring. This capability enables model-builders to embed their models in highly interactive Learning-Environments that can be distributed to a wide audience of interested users.  78  4.2  Overview of the Structure of Jordan's Water Sector Simulation System  Design Philosophy Jordan's Water Management Simulation System was built in an attempt to represent the complex  structure of the water sector in Jordan. The model was designed with the intent of  providing a water management tool that gives water managers, planners, policy and decision makers flexibility in assembling and testing  long-term water strategies for the country. A strategy may  include structural measures to increase the supply capacity, as well as managerial options to manage the supply and the demand and to allocate supply sources for use in municipal, industrial or irrigation purposes. Some of the simulation system's components are provocative and controversial in nature. This is though to be a healthy feature of the simulation system, since it will promote discussion and careful scrutiny of the simulation system and its operational procedures. It is hoped that this process will eventually lead to an improved water management system for the country. The simulation system is designed with the notion that there are severe limitations on the processing and computing abilities of human managers and decision makers (Simon, 1979). Such a notion focuses attention on the flow of information in a complex water resources management system, and it focuses on the use of such information in the decision making process. It also focuses attention on the role that simulation can play in gaining insights into current and future water management policies in the country. The simulation system is divided into several sectors. Each division is intended to represent water management from the point of view of the entity responsible for that particular sector within the organizational structure of the water management institutions in Jordan.  However, when  combined, these sectors represent the overall management structure of the country's water sector.  79  Limitations and Basic Assumptions Although the simulation system includes all the water resources of the country, the current prototype focuses on the municipal water sector, particularly on the analysis of supply and demand management options and on issues concerned with financial aspects. Although water quality plays an important role in water resources management in Jordan, this prototype simulation system does not provide for the analysis of water quality for two reasons: scarcity of data, and time limitation. The system, however, could be easily adapted for such analysis, once the data and research resources are available. The simulation system is designed for analysis of both short and long-term management strategies. It is designed to run for seventy-eight years, covering the period from 1973 up to the year 2050, on a one-year interval basis . However, the simulation system allows for the analysis to be 12  carried out for different periods, provided that thefirstyear of the simulation is not earlier than 1973, and the last year is not beyond the year 2050.  Sources of Information Three types of information were used in the simulation system: mental, written and numeric. The mental information relied on the author's mental data basefromobservations about structure and policies governing management of the water sector in Jordan. It also included observations of some of the author's colleagues.  The author's mental data base has been the result of twelve years of  accumulation during his work and active participation in the water sector of Jordan. Since some expectations drawn about the sector's structure, behavior and policies could contain some  Note that the main simulation system runs on a yearly basis, while the Jordan Valley irrigation system operation sector run on a monthly basis.  80  exaggerations and/or oversimplifications, they should be crossed checked and corrected in the future. Active participation of water managers, policy and decision makers would greatly enhance the representativeness of the simulation system. Written data on the Middle East and Jordan's water problem abound. Several articles, television programs, conferences, both locally and internationally, have tried to describe the problem and its future implications. I suspect that no good library in the World, does not contain at least a dozen or more books, special magazine or journal issues on the water problems of the region. Throughout this study, reference was made to these sources. Numerical data used in building the simulation system were collected and reviewed from several sources: consultants' reports, unpublished datafromthe water management entities in Jordan, and the Department of Statistics in Jordan.  These sources seemed to contain most of the  comprehensive usable data for the simulation system.  Reference was made to these sources  throughout the study and in the definition of variables as documented in the simulation system.  4.2.1  The Simulation System Macro Structure The model consists of five major sectors as illustrated in Figure 15: the water financial sector,  the capacity expansion sector, the water supply and demand management sector, the water resources and supply sector andfinallythe Jordan Valley irrigation system operation sector. Arrows in Figure 15 shows the links that exist between the model sectors. The thin arrows represent information flows while the thick arrows represent physical material flows between the model sectors. Once the user opens the simulation environment, a welcome message, shown in Figure 14, gives the user instructions on how to proceed with the analysis. Four choices are offered by these instructions. The first directs the analyst to view the model macro structure described above. The  81  second choice directs the user to view the model micro structure by going one level down to the construction layer, and the third choice direct the user to view the model equations, two levels down. The fourth choice directs the user on how to run the model, by hitting the run control icon.  The Sectors The water financial sector includes details of the capital and operation and maintenance financial analysis. It is further divided into two subsectors, the first dealing with the capital cost recovery calculations and the second with the debt and tariff setting mechanisms employed in the analysis. The water supply and demand management sector includes the model calculations of population, per capita water demand and the supply and demand management options. The capacity expansion sector lists the starting dates, capital cost and municipal water supply of the proposed and potential municipal and industrial water supply projects. It also includes the projects needed should the water management strategy call for the reallocation policy to be activated. The water resources and supply sector lists the water resources diverted for municipal, irrigation and industrial uses. It also includes the surface and groundwater resources of the country, and lists their past uses and future potentials. This sector links the Jordan Valley model and uses its output, particularly for municipal water supplyfromWehdah reservoir. Finally, the Jordan Valley irrigation system operation sector includes the output from an auxiliary simulation model that operates the Valley's irrigation infrastructure. It also includes the potential future development of dams, diversion structures and pump storage facilities for both irrigation and municipal and industrial purposes.  82  Welcome to Jordan's Water Sector System Dynamcis Simulation Model Instructions: • Maximize Window • To view the model High-Level Mapping Layer press the {Home} key • To view model micro structure go to the Model Construction Layer by pressing once on the Navigation Arrow (upper left corner) • To view the model equations, go to the Equations Layer by pressing twice on the Navigation Arrow • To run the model, hit the Run Controller Icon (lower left corner) © 1995 Zlad K. Shaw wash University of British Columbia, Vancouver, B.C. Canada Tel: (604) 224-6657, E-Mail: Shawwash@CMI.UBC.CA  Figure 14 : Initial Welcoming Message and Instructions of the Simulation System  83  Macro Structure of Jordan's Water System Dynamics Simulation Mo m  -^1  Water Finanoi*! Sector  « Click here for sector details  *  Water Demand & Demand Management Sector  '  • [ ( ? ) W a t e r Resources & Supply Sector  Capacity Enapnsion Sector  Jordan Valley Irrigation System Operation Seotor Double click on flow details  \y  Water Resources & Supply Sector  Capacity Exapnsion Sector  any arrow tor  \y  Water Demand & Demand Management Sector  Water Financial Sector —  (T]  ^7  Jordan Valley Irrigation System Operation Sector  Press Navigation Arrow for sector's details, or press PageDown for the Decision Control Center J Figure 15: Macro Structure of the Simulation System  84  As indicated in Figure 15, each block represents a sector, and the arrows represent the linkages, or feedback loops, between the sectors. Clicking on any arrow opens a window that reveals the linkages between the variables in the two sectors. Another click on one of these variables takes the user one level down to find the linked variables in the construction layer. On-line help is provided to aid the model user and provide a brief documentation of each block that represents a sector. The navigation arrow provides a facility for the user to go one level down to the construction layer to view the sector's micro structure. At the bottom of the macro structure frame the user is given instructions on how to proceed next. He/ she can either press the navigation arrow for the sector's details in the construction layer, or can press {PageDown} on the keyboard to go to the "Decision Control Center."  The Decision Control Center The "Decision Control Center" contains the strategy's design decision variables and the graphical and numerical outputs from the simulation system. As shown in Figure 16, two options are provided to control the decision variables: a slide bar and a graphical input function interface. The slide bars allow end-users to set initial values for stocks or for constants in the high-level mapping layer. On-line help provides the user with a description of the variable, its range of values and units. The navigation arrow allows the user to "drill" one level down to the construction layer. The graphical function and input & display devices are designed to enable the end-user to get a high-level view of the shape of graphical functions, and edit and animate them during the simulation. On-line help and navigation capability similar to that of the sliders are also provided.  The decision control center also contains output devices in the form of graphs and tables. The  85  graphs trace the behavior of selected variables as the simulation system is operating, while the tables provide the numerical outputs of the simulation. Several tables and graphs can be layered under one output device. For example, in Figure 16, several pages can be added to the table or graph pad icon shown, and they can be viewed by pressing the "Page Turners" located in the bottom left corner of the table or graph pad.  86  Jordan's Water Management Decision Control Center, Page 1/3 Supply & Demand Management Options  Major Strategy Indicators: Page 4  f ) 4:26 PM 9(5(95 MM Demand  ; Restore] RCPON&OFFi Shortage V. Per Capita V. Derrj| 0.0 I 0.00 77.43  MM Supply  MM Supplied 40.00  1973  I 1 lltl =11 1.0 V 7  LRP ON&OFF •  73.79  43.40  1974  in Population  20,113,414  Debt to Revenues...  •TV/.  MM Tariff in Fils  $1,500  Shortage v.  24.4H  Population Growth Rate Population Growth Rate= | 0.020 0 1:]  iTnii[jfriTn  1:MM Demand 2000.00-|  M  0.035  1 ©  PAfcCPONfcOFF•  |  \7  [ Restore]  Disi Start Date • 1992'  3: MM Supply  4: Shortages In MCM  Al Qaim Date =  I  2050  i  Al Qaim 2nd Stage Date = | 1992 ••l.i.f.i.-  2050  [ Restore]  I  j  |  j^rrlf:  I , I |W,  T  M 2050  Reallocation & Groundwater Balance  2030.75  2011.50  1992.25  1995 •'•  Pages 2/3 & 3/3 of Controls, {PageDown}  11  11 •  2051 |  I'I'ITI'I]] 2051  HnFils (7)  Debt P Multiplier ( ? ) Debt N Multiplier ( ? )  0.0  0.5  MM Projects Life =  1 ©  10  HH' ' '  111  |  40  10 Fi'.'.'.'i'.'.'.i.'.'.'i'.'.'.'.'afflUgn 50 MM CCR Period =  V 7 |  25  I ©  0.1  Constant Cost Year CCY« |  Consumer Price Index 0... • |  \7  0.0 •.ii'ii.'.'i'ii.'.'.'.i.'.'.'i'ii.'iii  I ©  i 0.25  1991.0  •+•4  ©  V 7  io I'.'.'.w.v.'m.'.'.'.'.i.'.'.'.'.i.'.'.'.'.'i so CCR RATE =  |  B|  \7  1995 |  "*| ( ? )  Interest on Debt»  |  V 7 0.1  ]  ©  •"^7  ©  Water Resources Rainfall Index ON&OFF.  Demand & Supply Management Abultion  1  i|] 1.0  0.03 i,'.'.'.'.'.'.'.])sng.v.'.w.w.'.'i 0.25  '.',',',',',','.'.','.'.i.'.'.ifl| 1995.0  (?"]  © ^-pr  Debt& Tariff Setting  Capital Cost Recovery I Restore] Fraction of Original Work... • |  ©  0  GWBalanoe Polioy Date. |  2050.00 4:2SPM 9(5(95  Years  Graph 2: Page 1  ©  2005  Reallocation Polioy 0N8c...« |  Laundry  © \y  X7 Desalination Date •  1998 HJ' '' ' ' ' '''''' ''"'''"  Toilet Flushing (?"|  |  ••• ii.u.unui.'iimfl] 2050  1992  1000.00+  ca  © \y  Asad Date «  i  1973.00  I  | 2050  4:  0.00  ©  0  Major M&J Projects Start Dates  Tariff Per Capita Multiplier =>  I 0.050  2: MM Supplied  i.  Tariff Multiplier ( ? ) [ Restore]  0.0 @  |  0  m o u i m ,.0  |  ©  ^—7  Cleaning & BathinjfT] |g  I  GW Balance Policy 0N&...» | equation on! 0.0 §  ©  < 1.0  M&l Wastewater  Drinking & Cooking & Fo... • |  25  |  ©  15 irrwi'i'.'i'i'fl|™.','wn'.i'n','i 40 P Aware & Cons  Leakage R e d u c t L Q  LProg Running  C...(?J  LPC&RCAFW Treatment Efficiency = 0.50  "V  7  X7  Figure 16: The Decision Control Center 87  |  0.82 1  • i'i'i'ii'i'ii'iitH'.'i'i'i'.«'i'i'i 1.00  © \y  4.2.2 The Simulation System Micro Structure As outlined in section 4.2.1, the simulation system is divided into five sectors. The following is a description of each.  The Water Financial Sector. The water financial sector is intended to portray the dynamics of the financial indicators in the water sector of Jordan. For this stage of development of the simulation system, the analysis focuses on the municipal and industrial water supplied by Government agencies. As shown in Figure 17, the sector traces the flow of capital investment in the M&I sector and monitors the accumulation of the annual instalments needed for capital cost recovery. It also traces the flow of revenues and costs incurred by the sector and monitors the accumulation of debt. The concept of feedback information loops is employed in this sector to set the required water tariff that is required to reach a desirable debt level. The analyst needs to set some basic parameters before he/ she can carry on with the financial analysis. These include the followings: the capital cost recovery rate, (CCR RATE), is afractionthat represents the interest rate used in the analysis. The rate can be set manually by the analyst or it can vary randomly using the R A N D O M built-in function in the software. The rate is set initially at 0.1, the M&I capital cost recovery period, (M&l CCR Period), which represent the period for capital cost recovery or the debt repayment period. The period is set initially at 25 years, M&I projects life, the time in years before the projects are put out of service and would need replacement. The project's life is set initially at 40 years, fraction of the original works that would need replacement at the end of the project's life. This is initially set at 0.5.  88  Figure 17: The Water Financial Sector  89  The simulation system also allows the financial analysis to be carried out either at current or at constant prices. The analyst has also to specify to which year the prices should be indexed to. In Figure 17, a box that includes the controls for the current and constant prices are provided. Two years that the prices can be indexed to (current or constant) are provided for in the simulation system, 1991 or 1995.  Once the year is set, then the analyst has to decide if he wishes to perform the  analysis with current or constant prices. For this option, a switch (Consumer Price Index ON&OFF) is provided. When set at (1), the analysis will be done with current prices, otherwise it will be done with constant prices. The Consumer Price index (CPI) represents the historical increase in consumer prices for the period (1973-1991) as published by the Department of Statistics, and the Central Bank of Jordan. The CPI increase rate for the period 1992-2050 was taken as the average of the rate of increase ( 9.46% ) for the period 1973-1991. On-line help directs the system user on how to use these indexes and how to go from there. A logic equation embedded in CPI or CCI Index determines which index will be used in the simulation once the above parameters are set. The water financial sector is divided into two subsectors (Figure 17): the capital investment and capital cost recovery, and the debt and tariff setting subsectors. In this prototype version, the simulation system considers financial aspects of the M&I sector. Future enhancement would include financial issues related to the irrigation and wastewater treatment sectors.  Capital Investment and Capital Cost Recovery Subsector This subsector keeps track of the capital investment in the M&I water sector. It is linked to the "Capacity Expansion Sector" by the variables "M&I Capital Investment" and "M&I Supply" (shown as a Ghosts), and linked to the "Water Demand and Demand Management Sector" by the variables representing the supply and demand management options (LPC&RC, PA&CP, andLProg Running Costs). CPI or CCI Index inflates prices according to the index chosen (current or constant  90  prices).  A n important output from the calculations in this subsector is the M&I Capital Cost  Recovery infilsper cubic meter (FPCM). This indicator depends on the accumulation of the annual instalments for capital cost recovery and on the M&I water supply. As mentioned earlier, the stock (or level) "M&I Annual Instalment for CCR" depends upon two flows: the annual inflow of M&I CCR, and the outflow of the capital costs paid, in addition to the interests on debt. The equation that determines the stock status at time (t) of the simulation is given by: M&I Annual Instalments for CCR(r) = M&I Annual Instalments for CCR(t-dt) + (M&I Annual CCR - M&I Recovered Costs Deduction) * dt  While the equation of inflow into the stock is given by: M&I Annual C C R  = - PMT(CCR R A T E , M & l C C R Period, M&I Capital & Replace & Programs Investment * 1000,0) * 1000  and the equation of outflow is given by: M&I Recovered Costs Deduction  = - DELAY(PMT(CCR R A T E , M & l C C R Period, M&I Capital & Replace & Programs Investment * 1000,0) * 1000, M & l CCR Period, 0)  As indicated in the boxes, the inflows and outflows use the financial built-in function in the software (PMT.) to calculate the periodic payments for capital cost recovery. Note also that the outflow of these payments is delayed by the use of the built-in function (DELAY) for the M&I C C R Period. The variable that collects capital investment is "M&I Capital &Replace & Programs Invest." The equation for this variable is given by: 91  M&I Capital & Replace & Programs Investment = (M&l Capital Investment + LProg Capital Costs L P C & R C + (if TIME >= 1992 then LProg Running Costs else 0) + (if TIME >= 1992 then PAware & Cons Prog PA&CP else 0)) * CPI or CCI Index + (if TIME < 2012 then 0 else (M&l Replacement Investment) * CPI or CCI Index)  The above equations are given here to illustrate the internal programming language that S T E L L A II employs, to indicate the form of the equations that levels, flows and converters can take, and, in addition, to show the equations in the Capital Cost Recovery Subsector.  Municipal and Industrial Debt and Tariff Setting Subsector As mentioned earlier, this subsector traces the flows of revenues and costs incurred by the M&I water sector and it monitors the accumulation of debt. The concept of feedback information is employed in this subsector to set the required water tariff can achieve a desirable debt level. As discussed in section 3.3.2 of this report, this subsector links with other sectors in an attempt to control the debt of the municipal water sector. Figure 7 is reproduced here  M&l Capital Expenditure  M&l Water Supplied  to show the positive feedback loop contributing to the accumulation of debt in the municipal water supply sector in Jordan. The accumulation of  debt is represented by the  Loans  Interest on Debt & Cost Recovery Payments  positive feedback loop shown in the Figure.  Debt grows because of  Legend: (+) & (-) Feedback Loops :  Interest Rate  increased loans and interest on  + & - :Causal Links  accumulated debt. As the debt increases, debt interest and capital cost recovery payments increase.  92  This in turn decreases the balance of money available and increases the M&I water costs. The decrease in money balance requires the utility to borrow more money, which in turn increases the debt. This positive feedback loop receives other negative feedback loops trying to equate revenues with costs. A n increase in costs lowers the level of money balance, which requires an increase in water tariffs, and so on. The debt feedback loop is further linked with the water demand loop and capacity expansion sectors. Tariff setting mechanisms depend heavily on the feedback structure shown above. The mechanism is influenced by the accumulation of M&I Instalments for capital cost recovery, and by debt. As M&I costs increase, the debt increases. Information from the debt level is fed back to the tariff by means of two multipliers (Figure 17), the Debt N Multiplier, and the Debt P Multiplier (N, stand for negative and P for positive). If the debt is high, the negative multiplier causes the tariff to increase, while if the debt is low (or there is surplus) the positive multiplier causes it to decrease. The aim of these two multipliers is to bring the revenues to a level that causes the debt to revenues ratio to stabilize around zero by increasing or decreasing the tariff. The other mechanism at work is the feedback from capital cost investments.  Investment  determines the annual instalments for capital cost recovery. As the annual instalments increase, the cost of supplied water increases. This information is fed back to the tariff causing it to increase. Increase in tariff causes the revenues to increase, and the debt to decrease. Several model runs indicate that the annual instalments influence is stronger in tariff setting than that of the debt. An other interesting observationfromrunning several simulations under several supply conditions, is that as the shortages increase (i.e., no new capital investment) the tariff tends to stabilize. However, as new supplies are developed to alleviate the shortages, the tariff seems to jump sharply to levels higher than if the supplies had been developed earlier.  93  Other tests were carried out to see the effect of delays that might take place in adjusting the tariff (see section 3.3.2 discussion on regulatory delays) to respond directly to increase in debt or annual instalments. The tests show that debt increases significantly should there be a delay of more than two years in adjusting the tariff. This highlights the need for water managers to act in a proactive manner, by not waiting until after a water supply project is planned, designed and commissioned to request an increase in water tariffs. This also highlights the value of the simulation system in helping water managers to foresee the problems ahead. Other components of this subsector are the operation and maintenance (O&M) costs. The O & M cost at this stage of development of the simulation system is taken as the constant cost for the year 1992. To bring this cost to the base year of the analysis (which is specified from the control center) an inflater that is based on the consumer price index was used. For example, the base year of the analysis shown in Figure 17 is 1995, so to bring the O & M costs to this year the inflater value was set at 1.38. The total M&I cost variable collects the operation and maintenance cost and the annual instalments cost and conveys this information to the M&I cost which multiplies it by the quantity of water supplied to determine its value.  94  The Water Demand and Demand Management Sector This sector is divided into three subsectors (Figure 18): the population and M&I water supply and demand; the M&I supply and demand management options, and the M&I wastewater flow subsector.  Population and M&I Water Supply and Demand The population and M&I water supply & demand subsector calculates the demand for water based on two factors: population and the per capita M&I demand. Population growth depends on two inputs that can be varied to test various population growth scenarios: the population growth rate at the start of the simulation, and a decay factor used to decrease the population growth rate as the simulation proceeds. The historic population of Jordan is tabulated in POP 73-93. This variable lists the population of Jordan from 1973 up to the year 1993. POPo, represent the population in 1993, which was estimated by the Department of Statistics in Jordan at 4,100,000. The base case of the population projection uses a growth rate of .035. This rate is expected to decrease to 0.025 by the year 2020 (Dept. of Statistics of Jordan, 1992). The annual average per capita water demand used in this study is assumed to vary from a maximum of 185 to 105 liters per capita per day (LPCD). Figure 18, shows that the per capita water demand is an input from the M&I Demand Management subsector, and will be discussed. M&I demand is calculated by simply multiplying the population by the per capita water demand. M & I demand includes the industrial water demand to be supplied from the municipal water supply network. Shortages in supply occur when the demand is greater than the supply, and is calculated in terms of its quantity or as a percentage of the difference between M&I demand and M&I Supplied to M & l Demand.  95  [0©  ^  Water Demand & Demand Management 6ector  8  Population and M&I Water Supply & Demand M&l Supplied Shortage* in MCM Shortage. M b *  |  M&l Shortage.  24.4* Shortage %  Industrial Netwoik Demand  Supply & Demand 6eotor Qrapht J e r Capita % Demand Supplied  A  p  W  Supply & Demand Sector Table.  M&I Demand Management  M&I Supply Management  I  10.0  |  Leakage Reduction Prog LRP LProg Running Cost. LRP ON&OFF  I  o-o  I  Drinking & Cooking & Food Prep Per Capita M&l Demand  ^  LProg Capital Costs LPC&RC  (  /-\  h  U  M&l Leakage | 0.13 |  J J Hist Demad Adj Cleaning & Bathing  Laundry Q >  Revenue Collectbn Prog RCP LPC&RC AFWMurtpliar  RCP 0N&0FF  ,J  Historical Accounted for Water AFW  Toilet Flu.hing  ^)  Abultbn  ^  PA&CP 0N&0FF (^)>  .' Shortage %  PAware & Coi • Prog PA&CP Tan* MuKEIiar  Municipal and Industrial Wastewater Flows Wastewater Tabels  Recycled Wastewater Flow.  Wastewater Oraphs JIJ Waste to Zarqa RKi  NJ Zarqa Rrver <*  JIJ Waste to W Arab  Treatment Efficiency  JIJ Waste to W6hueib  M&l Supplied  JUWastetoWKafrein.  6ewered Populatbn Fractbn  All other Jordan  NJ Wad I Arab % f  NJ Wadi Shueib % NJ Wadi Kafreln % Allother Jordan %  Returned Fractbn of Supplied M&l Historical Wastewater Treated  Figure 18: Water Demand and Demand Management Sector  96  The quantity of water supplied, "M&I Supplied," is taken as either the demand or the supply. If the supply is greater than the demand, the quantity supplied is put equal to the demand. If, however, the supply falls short of the demand, then the supply is taken as the supplied quantity.  M&I Supply and Demand Management Subsector The M&I supply and demand management subsector includes two components: M&I supply management options, and M&I demand management. Supply management is concerned with reducing unaccounted-for-water by carrying out two programs: a leakage reduction program, and a revenue i  collection program. The leakage reduction program aims at rehabilitating the municipal water network to reduce leakages through investment in capital projects and an ongoing expenditure to maintain a low level of leakages from the network in the future. It should be mentioned here that within the period 1993-1998 Jordan will invest a total of 50 million Jordanian Dinars (approximately CAS 100 million) for replacement and rehabilitation of old municipal networks.  This capital  investment is included in the capital cost input variable LProg Capital Costs as shown in Figure 18. The expected leakage reduction resulting from this program is estimated at 25 M C M / year. As shown in Figure 18, the leakage program running cost multiplier (LPC&RC A F W Multiplier) ties the running costs to accounted for water levels (AFW) and M&I network leakage (see Figure 18). This multiplier is a graphical function that responds to the level of investment in network maintenance and rehabilitation. It is assumed that if the running costs fall below 4 million JD/ year (in 1991 prices) then leakage from the network would increase while A F W would decrease. If, however, the running costs are greater than 5 million JD per year, leakage will be reduced accordingly. As mentioned earlier, the per capita municipal water demand is assumed to vary between 185 and 105 LPCD, consisting of five categories as listed in Table 3 (ROID, 1991).  97  Table 3: Per Capita Water Demand, in LPCD. Use Category  High  Low  Drinking, Cooking & Food Preparation  25  25  Cleaning and Bathing  50  25  Toilet Flushing  50  25  Laundry  30  15  Ablution  30  15  Total  185  105  Source: ROID,  1991  The level of demand in each of the five categories is further assumed to be influenced by two factors in the form of information feedback mechanism: the percentage of shortages in the M & I water supply subsector, and the water tariff in the financial sector. It is assumed that as shortages increase, the level of expenditure on public awareness programs would increase. In addition, it is assumed that the per capita water demand would be influenced by the water tariff. This influence is achieved by the tariff multiplier. The tariff multiplier is intended to influence the per capita M&I water demand through pricing of water. As the tariff increases, the multiplier reduces the demand. A maximum of 0.25 demand elasticities is assumed in this analysis, and it varies nonlinearly with the tariff. This low demand elasticity is assumed to represent the situation in Jordan, since the supply of water is not available in sufficient quantities to meet the full unrestricted per capita water demand. For more discussion on the use of water pricing to control demand and demand elasticity see McNeill and Tate, 1991.  M&I Wastewater Flows Subsector This subsector is temporarily included in the water supply and demand management sector. The subsector calculates the M&I wastewater flows from water use in these sectors. The quantity of flow depends on the following factors (WAJ, 1992): 98  Fraction of treatment efficiency.  This fraction represents the portion of inflow into the  wastewater treatment plants that will be discharged after their treatment, Fraction of population served with the municipal network, and that contributes to wastewater flows, Fraction of returned M&I water as wastewater, Fraction of sewered population, in addition to M&I water supplied which represent the quantity of M&I water supplied, as defined above. The historical wastewater treated represent the quantities of wastewater treated for the period 1973-1993. After treatment, the wastewater flows would be diverted for irrigation use, primarily in the Jordan Valley. For this stage of the analysis, it is assumed that the treated wastewater flows would be distributed according to their 1992 fractions. For example, the percentage of flows diverted into King Talal reservoir amounted to 46% of the total wastewater flows in the country for the year 1992. For this stage of the simulation system, it is assumed that this percentage remains constant for the entire simulation period. Similar percentages apply for Wadi Arab, Shueib and Kafrein. The majority of the above mentioned rivers and streams flow toward the Jordan Valley. Thus these flows form a physical link or feedback between the water supply and demand management sector and the Jordan Valley irrigation system operation sector. The flow that end up being used for irrigation are further influenced by the fraction of the municipal and industrial wastewater flows that returns to be used for irrigation purposes. This fraction depends on several factors: wastewater treatment technology, treatment efficiency, operational and management efficiency, methods of transportation of the resulting treated wastes, and availability of storage facilities (reservoirs) to hold the treated waste for irrigation use at a latter date.  99  Future wastewater flows destinations will depend on population distribution in the country. In addition, results from the initial runs of the simulation system indicate that the existing reservoir capacities in the Jordan Valley will not be sufficient to handle the wastewater flows that will be generated. The results imply that either new facilities should be build, or a new destination for these flows should be found. In addition to the increased quantities of wastewater flows that will eventually end up in the Jordan Valley, the issue of water quality should be resolved. Increased wastewater flows, coupled with increased diversion offreshwater resources from the Jordan Valley for M&I use, will result in a considerable increase in the salinity of irrigation water in the Jordan Valley, which in mm will have a significant impact on both crop production and the sustainability of irrigated areas (soil salinity will be on the increase with the increased use of treated wastewater flows). Future development of the simulation system should take such factors into consideration.  100  The Capacity Expansion Sector This sector includes the starting dates, the capital cost and the supply quantities of the M&I past and future supply projects (Figure 19). It also includes the Reallocation Strategy projects. This sector feeds financial information to thefinancialsector, and water supply information to both the water resources and the water demand and demand management sector. The basic operation of this sector is simple. Before the project starting date is reached, construction of the project commences. Once the project starting date is reached and construction is completed, the project starts to supply water for M&I. The information is then conveyed to the water supply and the demand and demand management sectors to inform them that the project has been completed and its supply is available for use. Each subsector is divided into three parts: capital cost, starting dates, and M&I supply. The starting date is represented by a level to avoid the project from being activated twice accidentally. To illustrate how the capital cost of a project is distributed, an equation for the Disi project will be used. Disi Capital Cost = IF Disi Start Date=2050 T H E N 0 E L S E (PULSE(3, Disi Start Date-4,179) + PULSE(60, Disi Start Date-3, 179) + PULSE(Disi Start Date-2,179) + PULSE(80,Disi Start Date-1, 179) + PULSE(57,Disi Start Date, 179))  As shown in the equation the capital cost of the project is distributed over five years. The equation tests if the project starting date is set at the year 2050. If the starting date is not equal to 2050, then construction of the project will start the fourth year prior the completion date, with a capital expenditure of three million JD's. The three million JD's are spent in a PULSE fashion, using the PULSE built-in function. In the third year before the completion date, 60 Million JD's are spent,  101  and so on. The number "179" is inserted to assure that the capital expenditure will not be repeated in the simulation run. For water supply from the same project, the following equation shows the logic used. Disi Future Supply = (IF Disi Start Date =2050 T H E N 0 E L S E DFS) DFS = DELAY(75,Disi Start Date-STARTTIME,0)  As shown in thefirstequation, supply from this project will be activated if its starting date is less than 2050, the supply will be according to the second equation DFS, which delays the project for a time equal to the difference between the starting date of the project and the starttime of the simulation. Once the delay period is achieved, then the project will begin to supply 75 million cubic meters per year. This sector includes the switch to activate the reallocation policy. When activated, by setting the "Reallocation Policy ON&OFF" to (1), the projects under this strategy will reallocate water supplies currently used for irrigation purposes to municipal and industrial use. Projects to carry out this strategy are as shown in Figure 19, and will be discussed in section 4.4 of this Chapter.  102  ^  Capacity Exapnsbn Sector  M&I Supply  Starting Dates  M&I Projects Capital Cost  a  ) CPI InflatertgCCY  M&I Capjjkl In SM&I Supply  Table 1  Oraph 3 Desal Total C Unit Cost of Desal  Desal Intervals  Reallocation of Surface and Ground Irrigation Water Resources to M&I Reallocation Total Cost  Reallocation Policy PN&OFF Reallocated M&I Supply  \ J\m Zar OW Reall Costs  Amman Zarqa Reall Date  V ^zraq OW Reall Costs  Azraq OW Reall Date  Am Zar Reall Supply Azraq Reall Supply  Yarmouk Reall Date  -Yarmouk OW Reall Costa j JRSWto Belqa OW Reall Costs  i  Yarmouk Reall Supply JRSWto Betaa Reall Date  J R S W t o Itbd OW Reall Costs  JRSWto Belqa Supply JRSWto Irbid Reall Date  j ^ e a d Sea to Am m OW Reall Costs i  JRSWto Irbid Supply Dead Sea to Amm Reall Date  > jlV Araba OW Reall Costs  W Araba Reall Date  \ Jafr Ham mad Sithan OW Reall Costs]  W Araba Supply Jafr Ham mad Sirhan Reall Date  \ ^Valley to Betaa OW Reall Costs  JValley to Belqa Reall Date  Dead Sea Supply  J H 6 Supply J  JVto Belqa Supply \ ^Vrab to Irbid 2nd Stage Reall Costs I  Arab to Irbid Reall Date  vj)A Amman 2nd 6taoe Reall Costs i  Arab to Irbid Supply DA Amman 2nd Stage Reall Date  \ ^ Conv 2nd St to Amm Reall Costs  DA Amm Supply N ConvtoAm m 2 nd 6t Reall Date  i & Karak Reall Costs  NC Amm 2nd St Supply Hasa & Karak Reall Date Hasa& Karak Supply  Figure 19: Capacity Expansion Sector  103  Water Resources and Supply Sector This sector represents the ground and surface water resources of the country. The sector is divided into three subsectors as shown in Figure 20: surnmary of water resource supplies, surface water resources and supply, and groundwater resources and uses.  Groundwater Resources and Uses Subsector The groundwater subsector includes the groundwater resources distributed over twelve groundwater basins found in Jordan.. As shown in Figure 20 two policies can be activated from this subsector to decide on how the groundwater resources should be managed.  The first is a  groundwater balance policy, and the second is the reallocation policy. As discussed previously, the reallocation policy is concerned with reallocating the current use of surface and groundwater resources from irrigation to municipal and industrial purposes.  Once this policy is activated,  groundwater use for irrigation purposes will be curtailed, and groundwater abstraction will be limited to the sustainable yield of the basins. As mentioned in section 2.2 of this report, groundwater abstraction in 1992 exceeded the renewable aquifer's sustainable yield by almost 200 M C M / year (or about 170% of the sustainable yield).  Under the reallocation strategy (see section 4.4), the  development objective would be to sustain the currently available resources and protect them against pollution and depletion by overuse. Another policy included in this subsector is the groundwater balance policy. The policy objective is to achieve a balance in groundwater use by balancing abstraction with the aquifer's longterm yield. Once this policy is activated, renewable groundwater abstractions will be cut back to their long-term safe yield. For equity purposes, the cutback will be imposed on the three water users by distributing their allowed future abstraction in proportion to their uses in 1992.  104  Water Resources & Supply Sector  Summary of Water Resources Supplies Surface M&l Supply  Hist M&l Supply 91  DesalSuppty  OW M&l Supply  Total M&l Supply  OW M&l Use OW Indutt Supply  TWater Supply  OW Indutt Ute OW Irrg Supply Total Irrigation Supply  OW Irrg Ute Surface Irrg Supply  Surface Water Resources & Supply 1985 - 2050 N Ohor Conver 6upp  Hata & Karak Supply  N Ohor Conver Date Mujib Dam Irrg Supply  Arab to Irbid 6upply  Mujib Dam Date Wehdah Irrg Supp  NC Amm 2nd 6t Supply } DA Amm 6uppry  N Conv Date Tannur Irrig 6upp Tannur Dam Date R KBteh Irrg Supply  ; N Conv 6upply Wala Supply  R Kafrein Dam Date Irrg Supply  6urface M&l Ute  Karameh Dam Date S Ohor» 2nd 8tg S u p p l y /  Supply Orapht  Imported Surface Water Supplies  S Ohon 2nd Date Wala Dam Irrg 6 u £ p j v /  .<-</ Asad 6upply  Wala Dam Date  '•  A Al Qaim Supply •.  ;  Supply Tablet  Groundwater Resources & Uses 1985 -2050 Groundwater Policies & Decisions Reallocation Polcy 0N&OFF  Balance Policy Date 0.0  I  Rainfall Vol Index  SB I  I—5J5 I  20S1 Balance Policy 0 N&OFF  Rainfall Index 0N&OFF  Amman Zarqa Groundwater Basin Rainfall Vol Index  'q-  Amman Zarqa Uses  Balance Policy ON&OF Balance Policy Date  Am Zar Recharge  r' p—C—i>—;—i>-  Am Zar Safe Yield Am Zar Min Alfow Storage  Amman Zarqa OWBatln 6torage  Am Zar Reall Supply  *Cj)  (V)* Am Zar Indutt Ute 85 92m Zar Irrg Ute 95 9&m Zar M&l Ute 85 92  Am Zar OW Level  Overdraft Am Zar  *CD  Am Zar OW Salinity  Am Zar Cost of Pumping  Azraq Groundwater Basin Balance Policy 0N&OFF Balance Policy Date  C> c> c> Azraq Reall 6 upply  ^ 0 ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ' ' ^  00=  6  Azraq Indutt Ute 92  u  Rainfall Vol Index nainian v  ' 6 " 0 H 9 H Q  Azraq OW Basin Storage Overdraft Azralgraq Safe Yield | Azraq OW Real... | 1093 |  ^X ^^^S><^*>^>^i^ ^. v  Azraq Recharge A _ sis  Azraq Uses _  w  Azraq Irrg Ute 92 Azraq M&l Ute 92  Figure 20: Water Resources and Supply Sector  105  To test the effect of groundwater recharge variability, a rainfall volume index was introduced. The rainfall volume index was calculated as annual rainfall volume that fell on Jordan divided by longterm average rainfall volume for the period 1937-1992 (WAJ, 1993). When this index is activated, it causes the annual recharge to the twelve groundwater basins to vary proportionally. Two types of groundwater resource are represented in the simulation system, renewable and nonrenewable.  Renewable groundwater resources are replenished on an annual basis, while  nonrenewable groundwater resources are stores of water that once used will not be replenished. Each groundwater basin in the country is represented as follows (see Figure 20): a stock, which represents the renewable, or nonrenewable groundwater storage in the basin, an inflow, which represents the annual groundwater replenishment, an outflow, which represents the annual groundwater use from each basin. If outflows exceed inflows, the stock will be depleted. However, if the inflows exceed the outflows, the stock will reach equilibrium and stabilize at its maximum level (i.e., maximum groundwater table). Outflows represent water use, and they are divided into three categories: municipal, industrial and irrigation. Groundwater use in each of the three categories was assumed to continue at the 1992 level, unless the groundwater balance or reallocation policy is activated, and as long as groundwater storage level (stock) have sufficient quantities to support such use. Once the stock is depleted the simulation system returns future usefromthe aquifer to the long-term aquifer's yield. It assumed, for equity reasons, that each use category under this case will be proportioned according to their 1992 water use. The above discussion is based on the assumption that the groundwater basin will not be damaged by depletion.  However, many groundwater experts in Jordan fear that the current  106  groundwater depletion will cause permanent damage to the aquifer, which could eventually lead to the total loss of the aquifer. Lack of data on such predictions, however, have lead many policy makers to ignore such views. Some evidence, as increased water salinity, and salt water intrusion from saline bodies of groundwater lying underneath the fresh water bodies, has started to emerge lately (personal communications). The analysis employed at this stage of the simulation system takes an optimistic provocative outlook. It assumes that depletion will be tolerated as long as the minimum allowable storage has not been reached. The minimum allowable groundwater storage was assumed to be 50% of the total storage (Pride, 1993). Future water uses by each category (municipal, industrial and irrigation) are controlled by a complex logic argument. The argument depends on two policies (balance and reallocation) and the status of groundwater storage in each basin. For illustrative purposes, the following is a narrative description of the logic argument that controls the use of the Amman Zarqa groundwater for irrigation purposes. Note that this description is included in the simulation system as a D O C U M E N T that describes the logic employed by the equation.  The document helps the model user in  understanding the logic behind the equation that controls the variable.  107  DOCUMENT: Irrigation groundwater use from the Amman Zarqa Groundwater Basin (Am Zar Irrig). The logic of the equation set the analysis to start in 1985. It also tests if there is any policy decision that has been taken. Three policies are represented by the logic in the equation: 1) if the policy to balance groundwater abstraction with recharge is taken, and if the reallocation decision is not taken, then the logic sets irrigation water use according to the ratio of irrigation water use from this aquifer in 1992; 2) The second policy that could be analyzed is when the Reallocation decision is taken and when the balance policy is not in effect. Under this policy decision, irrigation use is set to equal zero (0). If both the reallocation decision and the balancing decision are taken, then the logic traces which one takes effect first and determines the quantities to be allocated accordingly. 3) The third policy decision is to continue the 1992 level of abstraction until the aquifer is completely drawn-down. Once this happens, then the logic sets (decreases) the quantity of water use, from this basin to the annual recharge, and divides the quantities among the three sectors according to the ratio of their water use in 1992.  The above description is translated into the following logic equation (emphasis added on the conditional logic): Am Zar Irrig = D7 TIME >= 1985 THEN (IF GW Balance Policy ON&OFF = 0 AND A m Zar Reall Supply = 0 AND GW Balance Policy Date > TIME AND Amman Zarqa GW Basin Storage > Am Zar Min Allowable Storage THEN A m Zar Irrig Use 85 92 ELSE IF G W Balance Policy ON&OFF = 1 AND Am Zar Reall Supply = 0 AND GW Balance Policy Date <= TIME T H E N (Am Zar Irrig Use 85 92 * Am Zar Safe Yield) / (Am Zar Indust Use 85 92 + A m Zar Irrig Use 85 92 + A m Zar M&I Use 85 92) ELSE IF G W Balance Policy ON&OFF = 1 AND A m Zar Reall Supply > 0 AND GW Balance Policy Date <= TIME THEN 0 ELSE IF GW Balance Policy ON&OFF = 0 AND Am Zar Reall Supply = 0 AND Amman Zarqa G W Basin Storage > A m Zar Min Allowable Storage THEN A m Zar Irrig Use 85 92 ELSE IF G W Balance Policy O N & O F F = 0 AND Am Zar Reall Supply > 0 THEN 0 ELSE Am Zar Irrig Use 85 92 / (Am Zar Indust Use 85 92 + A m Zar Irrig Use 85 92 + Am Zar M&I Use 85 92) * Am Zar Safe Yield) E L S E 0  108  Future modifications to the groundwater subsector could include the effects of groundwater storage drawdown on the cost of pumping, water table levels and groundwater salinity. Data availability and time limitations have prevented their inclusion in the current simulation system. However, and for illustrative purposes only, they were included in the Amman Zarqa groundwater basin (see Figure 20). Surface Water Resources & Supply Subsector The surface water subsector includes some of the most important surface water supplies in the country. As mentioned in section 2.2, present surface water resource development uses an average of 50% of the total surface water resources in Jordan. Several proposed projects that aim at enhancing future surface water availability are included in this subsector. The most important of these is the Wehdah project on the Yarmouk river. Other projects listed in this subsector are for irrigation purposes and will be discussed in section 4.4. It can be noted from Figure 20, that the reallocation policy influence one of the projects shown, the North Ghor conversion project. This project aims at converting the remainder of the irrigation system in the Jordan Valley from a surface canal irrigation system to a more efficient pressurized pipe system It is assumed that if the reallocation policy is activated, the quantities made availablefromthe conversion would be transferred for municipal use. The project that will carry the flows from this conserved source is called Deir Alia Amman, 2nd stage supply project (see section 4.4.4). Projects shown as Ghosts for municipal water supply are copied from the water reallocation subsector in the capacity expansion sector. Additional sources for municipal supply are the imported water supplies from the Euphrates River: Asad and A l Qaim.  109  As show in Figure 20, recycled wastewater flows plays a key role in meeting future irrigation water demand, since most of the recycled flows will end in the Jordan valley. As indicated earlier, this study did not attempt to treat issues associated with wastewater flows. However, it should be noted here that to make full use of wastewater flows, considerable investment will be required. In their report on the Jordan River Basin and the water situation in Jordan, ROID estimated that the future required capital investment on wastewater facilities, up to the year 2040, could amount to a figure in the order of one billion JD's in constant 1992 prices (ROID, 1993). Notwithstanding the above, the simulation system estimates the fraction of return flows that could be made available for irrigation purposes. This fraction depends on several factors: wastewater treatment technology used, treatment efficiency, operational and management efficiency, methods of transportation of the resulting treated wastes, and availability of seasonal storage facilities (reservoirs) to hold the treated waste for irrigation use at a latter date.  Summary of Water Resources Supplies Subsector This subsector collects and summarizes water use by source and type of use for the period 1992-2050. Included in this subsector are the historic water use by source and type of use for the period 1985-1993.  In addition, it includes the desalinated municipal supply, if such a source is  included in the water management strategy.  110  The Jordan Valley Irrigation System Operation Sector This sector represents a submodel that Fj9 (Hj) Jordan Valley Irrigatbn System Operati... / \  portrays the Jordan Valley irrigation system.  Q  It is included as a separate sector in the  Deir Alia 6upply  (^)  M&l Wehdah Supply  O  Q  Karameh RKafrein  Wehdah  simulation system as shown in Figure 21. However, the full scale submodel is much more complex as discussed below. This sector, links the Jordan Valley  (^)  NJ Zarqa RKrer % 2  t")  NJ Wadi Arab % 2  (^)  NJ Wadi 6hueib % 2  (^)  NJ Wadi Kafrein % 2  In & Outflow* J Valley 0 rap he ]2^t  ,115]  In & Outflows J Valley Tables  Figure 21: Jordan Valley Irrigation System Operation Sector  irrigation system with other sectors in the main simulation system As can be seen in Figure 21, five sources offreshwater supply are included in this sector: M&I Wehdah, Deir Alia, Wehdah, Karameh, and R. Kafrein. Thefirsttwo sources supply municipal and industrial water to areas outside the Jordan Valley, while the remaining sources are allocated for irrigation purposes in the valley (see section 4.4.1 for more details). The other items shown in Figure 21 are the recycled M&I wastewater flows destined for irrigation use in the Jordan Valley. S T E L L A II software does not currently provide a link facility that allows an automatic link between two or more models. Therefore, output from either the main simulation system or from the Jordan Valley submodel were exported/ imported to a spreadsheet and then imported/ exported back as required. This procedure provided the required link between the main simulation system and the Jordan Valley submodel. This was required since the Jordan Valley submodel operates on a monthly interval, while the main simulation system operates on yearly basis. The following discussion focuses on the Jordan Valley irrigation system submodel.  111  The Jordan Valley Irrigation System Submodel Historical Background The Jordan Valley is part of the Great Rift Valley that extends from the Horn of Africa in the south to as far as northwestern Syria. Within Jordanian territories, the Great Rift Valley is a downfaulted valley, the majority of which is lying 200 to 400 meters below sea level. Geographically, it is divided into two sections separated by the Dead Sea, the lowest point on earth. The northern part is known as the Jordan Valley, while the Southern part is known as the Southern Ghors and Wadi Araba. In this arid region of the world, the Jordan Valley is blessed with its natural resources: water, fertile agricultural soil and climate.  These resources have prompted a successful integrated  development that has become the food basket for the country and one of its major hard currency earners. Figure 22 shows the main features of the Jordan Valley development. The people who inhabit the Jordan valley have developed its water resources for irrigated agricultural and domestic purposes since the early days of our civilization. More recently, however, a large number of development plans and surveys dating as far back as the Ottoman Empire Mandate on the area (Franghia Plan 1913) were formulated for the use and allocation of the water resources of the Jordan River system (Naff, et al. 1985). Due to the complex hydrological structure of the Jordan River System, and the uneasy, sometimes hostile relationship between the four riparian countries, agreement on cooperative use of the system's natural resources has not been reached. This situation has prompted unilateral planning and actions by the various riparians. The most comprehensive plan drafted under the supervision of the Jordanian government was the Baker-Harza plan of 1955 (Baker-Harza, 1955). Political difficulties, however, prevented the full implementation of the prescribed Baker-Harza master plan.  112  LAKE  Jordan Valley Commission  f) SYRIAN ARAB REPUBLIC  TIBERIAS \ o.  Iii  Irrigation Development Plan 1975-82  I  I Existing irrigated ar |1973-1975 irrigation project  /NORTH E.G.M.C Intake  Stage 2  /  ,/\  <  MAQARIN DAM | (proposed)  Stage 1 •  OCCUPIED PALESTINE  Irbid  \  N 4\  /  \  THE yabis  V ..  HASHEMITE  J East Ghor ] main canal  KINGDOM  OF JORDAN,  1(8" ,  Or  fJerash  Nablus < DEIR ' ALLA? KING TALAL DAM  End of E.G.M. canal . End of 8 km extension  rSalt  Sweileh  KARAMEH SOUTH v t ^ l [•SHOUNEHj  End of 18 km, extension  Amman]  Jericho i  Jerusalem  10  20 Km  DEAD SEA  Figure 22: Irrigation Development in the Jordan Valley  (Source: Khouri, 1981) 113  Modifications were made in an effort to make the best use of what was then politically feasible until the final design of the main conveyance system, King Abdullah Canal (KAC), started in 1957. The construction of the canal started in 1959, and by 1966 the first 70-km section of the canal was operational. Subsequently, 12,300 hectares were placed under irrigation. Development efforts in the Jordan valley continued with the extension of the canal through the 1970's and 1980's. By 1986, the last extension of the canal was completed, thus bringing the total irrigated areas in the valley to almost 30,000 hectares. Along with the development of the main conveyance system, several dams and diversion structures were built to regulate the flows of the Jordan River tributaries. These included dams on the following streams: Zarqa river, wadi Arab, wadi Ziglab, wadi Shueib, and wadi Kafrein (see Figure 22). Efforts to develop the Yarmouk River, the main tributary of the Jordan River, were confronted with political difficulties . 13  As the demand for municipal and industrial water increased, efforts to divert some of the surface water from the Jordan Valley took place. In 1985 two major water transfer projects were completed: the Deir Alla-Amman scheme, and the Arab-Irbid scheme. These two schemes divert and pump water from the Jordan Valley to the main population centers in the highlands, the capital city of Amman in central Jordan, and the city of Irbid in the north. The Deir Alla-Amman scheme total cost was about 55 million JD's. It consisted of the following conveyance systems: five pumping stations to pump water from -227 meters below Sea level to a reservoir at elevation 1200 above sea level near Amman; 45 Km pipeline with a capacity of 1.5 M / second; a water treatment facility located near Amman, a 250,000 M terminal reservoir. 3  13  3  For more details on the political difficulties in the area and their effect on the development of the Jordan  Valley see: Naff, 1985; Eaton, 1994; and Wolf, 1995.  114  The Deir Alia-Amman scheme was designed to supply Amman and its surrounding suburbs with 45 M C M / year. However, since its completion it was only partly used due to the lack of sufficient water supplies in the Jordan Valley. The average supply from the scheme has been in the order of 10 M C M / year. The main reason for this low level of supply is because Jordan was not able to develop storage facilities for the main source of supply in the Jordan Valley, the Yarmouk River.  Development of the Yarmouk River Storage and Regulation Facilities Development of the Wehdah dam on the Yarmouk River is considered to be one of the few large scale storage schemes that Jordan has been attempting to materialize for a long time. As mentioned earlier, the project has beenfraughtwith political difficulties since its inception in the early 1950's. However, new hopes to go ahead with this scheme, and the revival of new regulation and . diversion facilities have been raised following the Middle East Peace Talks. Once the political difficulties have been resolved, it is believed that development of the Yarmouk River will allow the diversion of a much needed M&I water supply for the major urban centers in north Jordan (Amman, Zarqa, Irbid area). For this reason, and as the focus of this study is centered on M&I water supplies, it was thought to beneficial if alternative development scenarios were investigated to select the most appropriate combination of reservoir storage capacities, regulation and diversion arrangements in light of the new political development in the area. Most of the Yarmouk River flows originate in Syria. In its lower reaches, the river flows along the border that separates Jordan from Syria for approximately 30 Km (see Figure 22). Before joining the Jordan River, the river flows for approximately 10 Km along the border between Jordan and Israel. Jordan and Syria have agreed to develop storage facilities at the Maqarin site (see Figure 22), and they named the storage facility "Wehdah" dam ("Wehdah" means "Unity" in the Arabic  115  language). However, Israeli objections to the development have prevented securing international finance for the project. Other storage and regulation facilities were proposed to regulate the uncontrolled winter flows in the lower reaches of the Yarmouk River. The objectives of these facilities are to store and regulatefloodflowsduring the winter season in the lower reaches of the river. Besides the Mukhibah reservoir, a diversion weir was also proposed to increase the diversion efficiency into the King Abdullah Canal. Provisions were also allowed for the diversion of water supplies along the river to irrigate Syrian and Israeli farm lands. The above development scenarios were reflected in the structure of the Yarmouk River Simulation model shown in Figure 23. A schematic of the development is shown in Figure 24. The Figure also shows the Wehdah Municipal supply diversion facility at the Wehdah reservoir site. This facility will provide M&I water supplies to the cities of Irbid, Zarqa and Amman once the dam is completed. A project that will transport M&I waters to the urban centers is called the "Northern Conveyor" (see section 4.4.1. for details). Once the above development is completed, it is expected that the increase in K A C diversions will allow the lull potentials of the existing Deir Ma-Amman scheme to befinallyrealized. The Yarmouk simulation system allows for simulating the effects of historic as well as future Syrian abstractions, and the returned irrigation flows. It also provides for irrigation supplies along the river main stem (Himma and Syrian DS Wehdah), and for the Yarmouk Triangle area that is under Israeli control.  116  Yarmouk River System Return Flow v.  Future Syrian Abst Future Syrian Abst 30X Ret -4$ „J Future Syrian Abst 15*: Ret ^^"^ Future Syrian Abst OX Ret  ON ON Ct OFF CSA  Maqarin  O z — < p  Hist Syrian Abst  =£0  o -  Wehdah Municipal Supply Wehdah Municipal Diversion ON & OFF Municipal Abst  Himma  Iwehdah Wehdah Seepage &:EEvap va£  Res Level Multiplier  Wehdah Evaporation Wehdah Seepage Inter Flow  Syrian DS Wehdah  o  Wehdah Release Rule Curve  Wehdah Dead Storage  Yarmouk Triangle Mukhibah Release Rule Curve Mukh Spills  Mukhibah DS Flow Diver Effic WOWeir  Intervening Area  Diver Effic WWeir KAC Diversioi  •G> ON & OFF OEWOW Mukh Storage  I  0  (  . O  DS KAC ON & OFF DEWW 1.0  0  KAC Diversion  Figure 23: The Yarmouk River Simulation System  117  Graph 1  Lake Tiberias The Jordan River  Flows downstream of KAC Yarmouk Triangle diversions Proposed diversion weir  Jordan Valley irrigation supply King Abdullah Canal (KAC)  Himma diversions Deir Alia-Amman M&I supply  Mukhibah reservoir Interflow  Syrian diversions downstream Wehdah Wehdah M&I supply  ^gf  W  e  h  d  a  h  r e s e r v o i r  1 The Yarmouk River  .^.Syrian upstream diversions & return flows  Figure 24: Schematic of Proposed Storage & Diversion Facilities on the Yarmouk River.  118  The Yarmouk River Simulation System)* The simulation system operates on monthly basis. The monthly river flows are contained in the variable named Maqarin.  Figure 25 shows the decision simulator for the Yarmouk river  development. The simulator is used to control the variables that determine the development scenario to be tested, and it presents the simulation output in graphical and tabular form. As shown in Figure 25, the flows are adjusted for either the current or future upstream Syrian abstractions by two control switches, ON&OFF FSA and ON&OFF CSA. The remaining flows add to the storage of the Wehdah reservoir. The following outflows are provided for from the reservoir: Wehdah Seepage & Evaporation. Evaporation depends on the monthly evaporation and is related to the reservoir storage level by a level multiplier. Average monthly seepage was estimated by the projects consultants (see note 14), Syrian DS Wehdah. This outflow provides irrigation supplies to irrigated areas located downstream of the reservoir. Wehdah Spills. This outflow is controlled by the reservoir level, storage capacity, and other outflows from the reservoir. Wehdah DS flow. This outflow is controlled by a reservoir release rule curve that depends on the Jordan Valley monthly system demands. It is also controlled by the reservoir level and its dead storage capacity. Wehdah Municipal Supply. This outflow is controlled by the reservoir level and the diversion pumping capacity.  Monthly flow series and other data used in this simulation system were obtained from a 1992 study conducted by the consulting firm Sir Alexander Gibb & Partners for the Karameh Dam project in the Jordan Valley. 14  119  Decision Simulator For the Yarmouk River Development ©  Wehdah Storage = ' 400  ©  ON & OFF DEVW = =fi] 1.0  0.0'  ©  1.0  ©  Return Flow y. =  X7 0  5:33 PM 8*22(35  0.0 1  Yarmouk Table...  W  175  &  '  1: KAC Diversion  1:1  2: 3: 4:  \y  0  | (?)  1.0  |  T—7  0  ••••••••••• 1.0  ON & OFF HAW  n  | ( ? ) Wehdah Municip...(^  350 |  , I , M W , W M  •  0.0 •  ^7  1.0  | V , W , V ,  ON&OFFCSA*  ©  ON&OFFKPS = 0.0"  |  ON&OFFDEWOW = 0.0  ON & OFF FSA = 0.0"  Mukh Storage 0  |  l T i r r i T n | 1.0  ©  43....L..S  f |  | (?) V 7  1  D»ir Alia Inuke  Yarmouk Graphs  | (?) Yarmouk Tables  2: Wehdah Municipal Su... 3: Deir Alia Intake  4: OS KAC  40.00T  24: KAC Dive  22: KAC Dive 10.30  328  10.70  10.70|  330  16.50  16.50  16.50  331  16.50  16.50  16.50  323  13.20 333  12.60  12.80  334  10.00  335  10.00  Final  10.00  12.80  taa.  0.00  20.00  Yarmouk Graphs: F: Page 2e 2  60.00  80.00 5:33 PM 8*22(95  Figure 25: Decision Simulator for the Yarmouk River Development  120  Spills from the Wehdah reservoir combine with the interflows between the Maqarin and Mukhibah sites and the Wehdah DS flows and enters the Mukhibah reservoir. Several outflows are provided for from the Mukhibah reservoir: Himma. This outflow provides irrigation supplies to irrigated areas located downstream of the reservoir. Mukhibah Spills. This outflow is controlled by the reservoir level, storage capacity, and other outflows from the reservoir. Mukhibah DS flow. This outflow is controlled by a reservoir release rule curve that depends on the Jordan Valley monthly system demands. It is also controlled by the reservoir level, and the release requirements for the Yarmouk Triangle. Downstream of the Mukhibah reservoir the majority of the flows are diverted to K A C , and the undivertable flows discharge to the Jordan River. The simulation system includes the facility to install a diversion weir across the river near the K A C intake to increase its diversion efficiency. The Yarmouk simulation system performs an accounting function to calculate the monthly and the annual flows diverted for irrigation and municipal supplies under various development scenarios. Section 4.4.5 presents some simulation runs outputs. The Yarmouk simulation system forms one component of the overall Jordan Valley irrigation system model. The other simulation system components will not be discussed further in this thesis, but some of their outputs will be used in the main simulation system.  121  4.3  Development of Water Sector's Performance Indicators In any policy or decision analysis situation, the entity (or decision maker) concerned needs  a set of indicators that can be used to evaluate the performance of each alternative action they may consider. The proposed water management framework (section 3.3.3) called for development of a set of objectives that could govern the day-to-day operations as well as water management strategies. The framework also called for devising a unified criterion for evaluation of alternative water management strategies in Jordan. However, two fundamental questions arise. How the objectives and the criteria can serve to evaluate and compare the proposed water management strategies? Is there a way of quantifying some kind of indicator that reflects the impacts of each proposed strategy on the water sector? To answer these fundamental questions, the fourth component of the proposed water management framework was called upon. As illustrated in section 4.2, the simulation system facilitates quantitative analysis with an output that could be used to evaluate and compare the proposed water management strategies, and to measure their impacts on the water sector in Jordan. As shown in section 4.2, the simulation system provides several outputs that describe the structural behavior of the water sector in Jordan. A collection of important outputs were used to formulate "Performance Indicators."  One or more of these indicators serve to measure the  achievement of the objectives of the water sector. To carry the process further (in multiobjective decision analysis) would require the assessment of the objective's utility functions, and the value tradeoff between the various objectives. As these steps involve the value judgment of the decision maker, they are beyond the scope of this thesis. The following is a preliminary list of the performance indicators that can be used as inputs to the policy and decision analysis framework outlined in the proposed water management framework (section 3.3.3). Future enhancement of the model structure could add several other performance  122  indicators to this list. The indicators were divided into two categories: those that represent the total or average indicator's value over five years period, and others representing the value of the indicator's at one specific year. Appendix B includes selected numeric and graphic outputs of the performance indicators listed below.  A.  Performance Indicators. Five Year Averages  1.  Total capital investment, in current prices (MJD).  2.  Average instalments for capital cost recovery, in MJD/ year.  3.  Average M&I Capital cost recovery, in Fils per cubic meter supplied (Fils/ M ) .  4.  Average M&I tariff, in Fils/ M .  5.  Average debt, in MJD/ year.  6.  Average debt to Revenues percentage, in %.  7.  3  3  Average per capita water demand supplied, in %.  8.  Average M&I water shortages, in %.  9.  Average unaccounted for water, in %.  10.  Average leakages, in %.  B,  Performance Indicators. Annual Values  11.  M&I demand, in M C M / year.  12.  M&I water supplied, in MCM/year.  13.  Irrigation surface water supply, in M C M / year.  14.  Total M&I water supply, in MCM/year.  15.  Total irrigation supply, in M C M / year.  16.  Irrigated area from groundwater, in '000 dunums.  123  17.  Irrigated area from surface water, in '000 dunums.  18.  Recycled wastewater flows, in M C M / year.  19.  Percentage M&I desalinated, in %.  20.  Percentage M&I imported, in %.  21.  Percentage M&I groundwater, in %.  22.  Percentage M&I surface water, in %.  23.  Groundwater total supply, in M C M / year.  24.  M&I groundwater supply, in M C M / year.  25.  Irrigation groundwater supply, in M C M / year.  26.  Total nonrenewable groundwater storage, M C M .  27.  Total renewable groundwater storage, M C M .  28.  Renewable groundwater overdraft, M C M / year.  29.  Nonrenewable groundwater abstraction, M C M / year.  30.  Amman Zarqa groundwater basin storage, in M C M .  31.  Amman Zarqa groundwater basin uses, in M C M / year.  32.  Amman Zarqa groundwater basin overdraft, in M C M / year.  33.  Amman Zarqa groundwater level, in meters below average ground level.  34.  Amman Zarqa groundwater salinity, in ppm.  3 5.  Amman Zarqa groundwater cost of pumping, in Fils/ M .  36.  Percentage of M&I supply by source for current strategy, in %.  37.  Percentage of M&I supply by source for current and desalination strategy, in %.  38.  Percentage of M&I supply by source for current and import strategy, in %.  39.  Percentage of M&I supply by source for current and reallocation strategy, in %.  3  124  4.4  Testing Current and Proposed Water Management Strategies In this section a brief summary of the current and proposed water management strategies is  presented. It should be noted that the strategies are based on preliminary assessment and they were discussed here only to present the capability and functionality of the simulation system. The four strategies tested are: current water strategy, current and water desalination strategy, current and water import strategy, and water reallocation strategy. This section also includes some simulation runs for testing the development of the Yarmouk River storage system.  4.4.1  Current Water Strategy The most recent water development plan for the water sector was prepared as a five-year  investment program covering the period 1993-1997. The program was prepared by the Water Authority covering municipal water and wastewater projects and by the Jordan Valley Authority covering irrigation water projects. The estimated capital expenditure for the ongoing projects was estimated at 115.4 MJD distributed as follows: municipal 46.4, wastewater, 26.8, irrigation, 42.2. On the other hand, capital expenditure for proposed new projects was estimated at 1217.8 million distributed as follows: municipal (518.0), wastewater (209.4), irrigation (490.4). In sum, the total capital expenditure in the water sector for the period 1993-1997 was estimated at 1,333 MJD. Projects included in the five-year water sector investment program can be classified into the following categories: i.  Water resource and design studies for the three major sectors: municipal, wastewater and irrigation.  ii.  Capacity expansion projects for increasing water supply for municipal and irrigation purposes.  iii.  Programs aimed at enhancing the efficiency of the water distribution system. They include projects for the replacement of old municipal water networks, conversion of surface irrigation  125  delivery system and maintenance of irrigation networks, and projects aimed at enhancing operational management of the distribution systems, iv.  Programs aimed at conservation of the water resource, including water harvesting, deep water injection and protection of water resources from pollution.  Table 4 provides a summary of the above mentioned projects and programs.  Table 4: Jordan's Water Sector Five-Year Investment Program (1993-1997), in MJD. Projects & Programs 1. On-going M&I 2. New M&I 3. On-going Wastewater 4. New Wastewater 5. Ongoing irrigation 6. New irrigation  1993  1994  1995  1996  1997  Total  13.51  20.31  9.97  2.7  -  -  46.49  -  66.38  120.37  125.23  116.91  89.12  518.01  9.50  10.62  4.2  2.45  -  -  26.77  -  17.8  42.8  63.21  52.94  32.64  209.39  11.25  38.36  119.76  132.97  74.71  48.66  425.71  -  13.82  39.22  37.36  13.76  2.78  106.94  363.92  258.32  173.2  1333.3  1992  .  336.32 167.29 34.26 Total Source: Compiledfromthe Five-Year investment Program, Ministry of  Water and Irrigation,  1992.  It can be noted that the current emphasis of the five-year investment program concentrates on the municipal and industrial water and wastewater sectors. These sectors claim more than 60% of the total proposed expenditure. As mentioned earlier, this thesis will focus on the analysis of the municipal and industrial water sector. So details of the current municipal and industrial water strategy will be dealt with in the following discussion. Several projects and programs have been put forward to alleviate the severe imbalance in water supply in the municipal water sector. Most of these projects deal with short-term issues, while long-term issues are almost completely absent.  Table 5, lists the major projects and programs  proposed to satisfy the growing municipal water demand up to year 2000. 126  Table 5: Current Major Planned Investments in Municipal Water (1992-1998), in MJD, 1992 Constant Prices. Project & Program  Yield  (Year of Operation)  MCM  1992  1993  1994  1995  1996  1997  Total  A. M&I Capacitv Expansion -Disi, 98  75.0  -  3.0  60.0  80.0  80.0  57.0  280.0  -Wala-Amman, 95  15.0  2.3  7.7  1.7  -  -  -  11.7  -N. ConveyorAVehdah-Amm, 98  55.5  -  -  22.0  34.0  24.0  20.0 .  100.0  -Wehdah Dam, 98*  0.0  -  0.2  23.5  36.4  25.6  21.3  107.0  -Wala Dam, 98  0.0  0.1  0.1  8.3  9.5  5.0  -  23.0  -Mujib Dam, 98  0.0  0.1  OA  24.9  24.9  12.5  -  62.5  145.5  2.5  11.1  140.4  184.8  147.1  98.3  584.2  Subtotal 1  •  B. Supplv & Demand Manag't -Rep. of Networks (93)  25.0  0.0  10.0  10.0  10.0  10.0  10.0  -Conservation & Protection  -  1.0  1.6  1.3  0.4  0.3  0.2  25.0  1.00  11.6  11.3  10.4  10.3  10.2  54.8  170.5  3.5  22.7  152  195  157  109  639  Subtotal 2 Total  50.0 3.8 .  * Cost distributed 50% on M&I and 50% on irrigation projects. Source: WAJ &JVA  Five-Year  Investment Plan., 1992.  It could be noted from Table 5 that the current emphasis of water resource management in Jordan is still focused on structural measures to increase the supply capacity. Very little attention is placed on none structural measures, such as programs to protect groundwater from depletion, or to enhance revenues billing and collection, or to focus on conservation and public awareness. Projects to replace old networks promise to reduce the leakage from the municipal network, but additional efforts are needed to maintain the leakage at low levels. It assumed that under this strategy the municipal water sector will eventually carry the components of its five-year investment program. To accommodate delays in the current strategy some dates listed in Table 5 was adjusted to reflect the current situation. In addition, it assumed that efforts to keep leakages at their lowest possible levels will continue. To analyze the impacts of the  127  current strategy, the simulation system was used to test the performance and impacts of this strategy on the water sector. The simulation setup for the analysis is presented in Table 6.  Assessment of the Current Strategy Impacts A full list of the performance indicators (graphical and numeric) is included in Appendix B. The following is a brief summary of the main impacts of this strategy.  Water Resource Issues By the time the last project of this strategy is completed, Jordan's water resources will be fully developed. The per capita share of renewable water will increase to a maximum of 225 M in the year 3  2000, but it will start declining to 167 M in 2010, and further to 132 M in 2020, and is expected to 3  3  reach a low of 55 M in the year 2050. Under these circumstances, all of the renewable water 3  resources in Jordan will hardly cover the drinking water requirement of the population. The other important water resource issue under this strategy is the status of groundwater storage and quality.  Figure 26 shows  the decline in groundwater storage  in  the  aquifers in Jordan.  major The  Figure 26: Decline of Groundwater Storage - Current Strategy,  simulation runs indicate that in the absence of an appropriate groundwater policy, one of the most important aquifers in Jordan (Amman-Zarqa) will soon decline to a critical level (see Tables and Figures B.26-B.35). As discussed earlier, some aquifer's responses to high levels of over-abstraction are uncertain. Some groundwater aquifers have started to show symptoms of declining groundwater  128  levels and high salinity. If the current over-abstraction levels are unchecked, the consequences could be very serious: high salinity coupled with low water levels could render these aquifers unsuitable for drinking purposes. It should be noted that the aquifers shown in Figure 26 account for about 90% of the M&I groundwater supply and 75% of the total. It is expected that by the year 2005, the major aquifer in Jordan (Amman-Zarqa) will run out of its storage. Other aquifers might take a longer, but eventually, and by the year 2030 they will run out of their storage too. Figure 27 shows the effect  of the  decline in  groundwater storage on the sources of supply for M&I water.  As  Sources of M&l Water Supply (%)  groundwater  storage declines, the share of groundwater  supply  for  M&I is reduced from a high  Figure 27: Sources of M & I Water Supply - Current Strategy,  of about 80% in 1990 to a low of about 50% in 2020. Once the nonrenewable groundwater supply of the Disi aquifer is exhausted, the share of groundwater drops to a new low level of about 40% in 2045. Municipal and industrial wastewater flows are expected to grow in parallel to the modest growth in M&I water supply under this strategy (see Table and Figure B. 18). Measures to reduce the hazards of untreated wastewater should rank high in water policy issues. Failure to address such issues will have a grave impact on the receiving waters used for drinking purposes. Wastewater flows under this strategy will increase from 50 M C M in 1993 to about 125 M C M in 2005, and reach a  129  rnaximum of about 165 M C M in the year 2040. Beyond 2040, wastewater flows will start to decline as a result in the decline of groundwater supply for M&I water use (see Table and Figure B. 18).  Financial Issues This strategy aims at maximizing the water use in the municipal water sector. The capital cost of capacity expansion is reflected in the cost of projects as listed in Table 5. The total capital and other program's investment (five-year total) under this strategy are expected to grow from about 60 MJD in the early 1990's to a peak of about 795 MJD in 1995-2000. Beyond this period an average total investment of about 100-250 MJD will be needed to maintain the level of water supply in the sector (see Table and Figure B. 1). Tariff requirements will also increase, although with a delay of approximately five years. The current level of tariffs needed to cover the capital and the operation and maintenance cost in the M&I water sector is about 0.50 JD/M supplied. Once the projects of this strategy are completed, the tariff 3  requirement will increase to 0.86 JD in the period 2005-2010, and decline afterward to its current level of 0.50 JD/ M supplied (see Tables and Figures B . l - B.4). 3  The average debt will also increase from its current level of about 160 MJD in 1990, to reach ; a high of 740 MJD in the period 2025-2030 (see Table and Figure B.5). As will be seen in the analysis of other strategies, the amount of debt is not indicative. Therefore, it was found more representative to represent the debt as a percentage of the M&I water revenues. Table and Figure B.6 shows the percentage of debt to revenues for the current strategy along with the other strategies that will be discussed later in this section. It can be clearly seen that this strategy performs poorly on the percentage of debt to revenue performance indicator.  130  Table 6: Current Strategy Decision Control Parameters Simulation Setup Decision Control Parameter Major M&I Projects Start Dates Disi A l Qaim A l Qaim 2nd Stage Asad Desalination  Status/ Value  1998 OFF (2050) OFF (2050) OFF (2050) OFF (2050)  Supplv & Demand Management Options Revenue Collection Program (RCP ON&OFF) Leakage Reduction Program (LRP ON&OFF) Public Awareness & Conservation Program (PA&CP ON&OFF) Reallocation & Groundwater Policies Reallocation Policy Groundwater Balance Policy Date (GW Balance Date) Population Population Growth Rate  OFF (0) O N (1) OFF (0)  OFF (0) OFF (2050)  0.035  Capital Cost Recovery. Debt & Tariff Setting Fraction of Original Work Replaced M&I projects Life M&I Capital Cost Recovery Period (M&I C C R Period) Capital Cost Recovery Rate & Interest on Debt Constant Cost Year (CCY) Consumer Price Index ON&OFF Water Resources Rainfall Index ON&OFF Groundwater Balance ON&OFF  0.5 40 25 0.1 1995 ON(l)  OFF (0) (equation on)  M&T Wastewater Treatment Efficiency Recycled Fraction Returned for Irrigation  0.82 0.75  M&I and Irrigation Projects Start Dates Karameh Dam R. Kafrein S. Ghors 2nd Stage Tannur Dam Northern Conveyor & Wehdah Dam MujibDam Wala Dam Wala M&I Diversion  2000 1997 2005 2005 2000 2005 2005 1995  131  M&I Water Supply and Demand Management Issues The impacts of this strategy on the M&I water supply and demand management issues can be represented by the following performance indicators: % per capita demand supplied, % shortages, % accounted for water (AFW), % water leakages from the network, and M&I demand and supplied quantities. This strategy performs poorly on meeting the M&I water demand (see Table and Figure B.7). Although the percentage of per capita demand supplied increases to about 70% in the period 20002005 as the strategy's projects are completed, it soon drops back to even lower levels than were encountered during the past few years. By the year 2010, the M&I water supplied accounts for only 50%> of that year's demand. In parallel, shortages decrease slightly as the strategy's projects are completed, but they start to rise steadily to reach one-third of the demand in the period 2010-2015 (see Table and Figure B.8). A F W increases slightly as a result of completing the leakage reduction program Provided that the leakage reduction program continues, the A F W stabilizes at 60% of the produced water for the period 2000-2005 and beyond (see Table and Figure B.9). Similarly, the percentage of leakage from the network is reduced to reach 15% in the year 2000, and is further reduced to a new level of 13% if the leakage program continues to be pursued (Table & Figure B. 11). M&I demand under this strategy is influenced by feedback from high shortages. The demand rises as the population grows. By the year 2000 the total demand amounts to 410 M C M / year. As can be seen in Table and Figure B . l 1, rapid increase in demand takes place as the strategy's projects are completed. Once the shortages start to influence the demand, the rate of increase in demand decreases. Table B.l 1 shows that within a decade (1990-2000) the demand will almost double from 230 M C M / year to 410. As the shortages starts to be felt, the doubling period starts to get longer. As listed in Table B . l 1, beyond the year 2000, the demand will almost doubles in 25 years (2025).  132  As the years pass, the gap between demand and supplied water starts to get wider. Despite completion of the strategy's projects, the year's 2000 demand of 410 M C M was met by a supply of only 380 M C M -a shortage of 30 M C M . As the demand grows, so will the shortages. By the year 2015, a demand of600 M C M / year will be met by only 350 of supply - a shortage of 250 M C M / year representing over 40% of the demand.  Table and Figure B.12 also illustrates the effect of  groundwater depletion on M&I supply.  Irrigation Water Supply Issues Perhaps the biggest impact of groundwater depletion will be felt by the irrigated agriculture sector. As Table and Figure B.16 indicate, irrigated areas that depend on groundwater for it's supply are expected to suffer a loss of almost 100,000 dunums of irrigated lands. This loss can have serious political consequences as most of the investment in these areas belongs to the private sector. The public sector, however, will enjoy an increase in water supplies as recycled wastewater flows increase (see Tables and Figures B.15-B.17 for comparison).  The combined effect of a decrease in  groundwater availability for the private sector and a parallel increase in surface water for the public sector might create political problems for the government. One solution to this problem (see also other strategies) is to find a way to divert some recycled wastewater flows for irrigation purposes to replace the current high over-abstraction levels from renewable fresh groundwater. This policy, however, requires that wastewater flows be treated to higher standards than their current level of treatment. The reason being that some of the currently irrigated areas are located in the highlands where most of the groundwater recharges occur. Qashu has offered an interesting non-conventional approach (Qashu, 1994) to deal with issues related to increased wastewater flows, depletion and contamination of groundwater resources, and environmental degradation in Jordan.  His approach considers the uncertainties embedded in  133  management of water resources and it calls for consideration of desalination as a wastewater treatment technology that could be used in Jordan to manage increased wastewater flows, and to protect against the negative impacts that wastewater might have on fresh surface and ground water resources. He also noted that the water sector should be planned in parallel with the energy sector for production of both potable water and electric power. This approach, he asserted "provides the missing dimension for environmentally sustainable resource management in countries or regions with chronic water scarcities."  Overall Current Strategy Evaluation The current strategy calls for development of the remainder of Jordan's fresh water resources. It provides a temporary relief from the chronic water shortages that the municipal water sector is experiencing.  The strategy, however, fails to deal with the long term water scarcity issues, and at  the same time it does not address the potential use of demand management options. The biggest deficiency of this strategy is its inability to recognize the central role that groundwater plays in the future development of the water sector in Jordan. It focuses on conventional structural measures to increase the supply, with little attention to demand management options such as public awareness and conservation programs. It also ignores the benefits of revenue collection programs that could have significant impact in relieving the M&I water sector from the burden of debt.  4.4.2  Current and Water Desalination Strategy The current and desalination strategy relies on completing the current strategy projects and  on desalination of sea water for M&I water supply. The Gulf of Aqaba, in the south of Jordan, is the only Sea outlet that Jordan has. Under this strategy, it is assumed that Jordan will install a Sea water desalination complex that consists of 10 desalination units, each capable of delivering 10 M C M / year.  134  The complex will expand to add 10 desalination units at 5-year intervals.  The unit cost of  desalination of Sea water at Aqaba was assumed at U.S.$1.7 / M produced. This is the cost for 3  Reverse Osmosis desalination plant and it is based on energy cost of US$ 0.07 / kwh, the rate of replacement of the membranes at 20% per year, twenty years plant life, 90% load factor, and an interest rate of 10% a year, for a plant with a capacity of 273,000 cubic meters per day (Darwish, et al, 1989a; 1989b; 1989). The above costs were converted to Jordanian currency at $1.0 = 0.69 JD. The desalinated water need to be conveyed 350 km to the major urban centers in north Jordan.  This analysis included the construction of a phased conveyance facility capable of  transporting the desalinated water to the major urban centers (Amman-Zarqa-Irbid). The cost of these conveyance facilities was assumed to match that of the Disi conveyor as listed in Table 5. A deduction of the estimated costs of the wellfield included in the Disi project was made to reflect the cost of the conveyance system. To analyze the impacts of the current and desalination strategy, the simulation system was used to test the performance and impacts of this strategy on the water sector. The simulation setup for the analysis is presented in Table 7. For consistent comparison between the previous and other strategies presented in this section, the remainder of the simulation setup was kept at their values shown in Table 6. It can be noted from Table 7 that this strategy calls for a groundwater balance policy to take effect by the year 1998. If the process of adopting such a policy were to start in early 1996, it is believed that the actual policy implementation will be delayed for two years to allow for regulatory and policy approval routine. The two years delay also allow the water management entities to devise the required technical and administrative procedures to control groundwater over-abstractions from exiting wellfields.  135  Table 7: Current and Desalination Strategy Decision Control Parameters Simulation Setup Decision Control Parameter  Status/Value  Major M&T Projects Start Dates 1998  Disi A l Qaim  OFF (2050)  A l Qaim 2nd Stage  OFF (2050)  Asad  O N (2040)  Desalination (10 desalination units, at 5 years intervals)  O N (2004)  Supplv & Demand Management Options Revenue Collection Program (RCP ON&OFF)  ON(l)  Leakage Reduction Program (LRP ON&OFF)  ON(l)  Public Awareness & Conservation Program (PA&CP ON&OFF)  ON(l)  Reallocation & Groundwater Policies OFF (0)  Reallocation Policy Groundwater Balance Policy Date (GW Balance Date)  O N (1998)  As shown in Table 7, the strategy also calls for activation of two supply and demand management programs: revenue collection and public awareness and conservation. The objective of the revenue collection program is to increase the percentage of A F W , which eventually could lead to increase in the water revenues and decrease in debt levels. The public awareness and conservation program objective is to increase mass media and public education programs aimed at reducing the per capita water use. As outlined in section 4.2, the per capita water demand was divided into several categories: drinking and cooking, food preparation, ablution, laundry . . . etc. The public awareness program is assumed to target each use category by offering consumers tips, guidance and site visits to show them how to save water in each category. The conservation program aims at setting standards for efficient water use appliances and devices, such as low water consuming automatic washing machines, gardens watering . . . etc. It is assumed that the program will also include 136  consumer financial incentives to replace old water fixtures such as leaky in-house pipe networks and fittings, old leaky water taps, old toiletflushingunits... etc., and for building facilities to harvest rain water from their roofs for use in garden watering, car cleaning . . . etc.  As indicated in Table 7, this strategy relies partially on supplies from the nonrenewable groundwater resource of the Disi aquifer in south Jordan. By the year 2040, the aquifer's storage level will be completely mined, and its water supply will terminate. It is assumed that the Disi conveyor will be replaced to transport desalinated water from Aqaba. As a result of termination of supplies from the Disi aquifer another M&I source of supply will be needed. A project called Asad was assumed to replace the Disi water supplies. Asad relies on import of water from Lake Asad on the Euphrates River in Syria. The total capacity of the project is assumed to amount to 160 M C M / year at a cost of 270 MJD distributed over six years for construction of the project (ROID, 1993). As shown in Figure 28, the sources of M&I water supplies will heavily depends water surface  on  desalinated  supplies.  Sources of M&l Water Supply (%)  Local  and groundwater  supplies will play an ever decreasing role in meeting  Figure 28: Sources of M&I Water Supply- Current & Desalination Strategy.  M&I demand. The performance indicators for this strategy are compared with the current and other strategies and can be reviewed by referring to Tables and Figures B. 1-B.35 in Appendix B..  137  Effects of Supply and Demand Management Options & GW Balance Policy To test the effects of activation of some of the management options provided in the simulation system a set of simulation runs under the current and desalination strategy was conducted.  The  simulation runs setup is shown in Table 8. Table 8: Simulation Runs Setup to Test the Effects of RC, LR, PA&C Programs Program or Policy  Base 1  Base 2  Base 3  Base 4  Revenue Collection  OFF (0)  OFF (0)  ON(l)  ON(l)  Leakage Reduction  OFF (0)  ON(l)  ON(l)  ON(l)  Public Awareness & Conservation  OFF (0)  ON(l)  ON(l)  ON(l)  G.W. Balance Policy  OFF (0)  ON (1998)  OFF (0)  O N (1998)  Figure 29 and Figure 30 shows the effects of activation of the revenue collection, leakage reduction and public awareness  Tariff (Fils/ M Supplied) 3  1 0 0 0  & conservation programs and the G W balance policy on tariff and  Base4 Basel  on the percentage of M&I water demand supplied  respectively.  Table B.36, and Table B. 37 lists  Figure 29: Effects of Demand Management Programs & GW Balance Policy on Tariff  the numeric outputs for the simulation runs for the period 1990-2050. Figure 29 and Table B.36 clearly indicate that the implementation of revenue collection, leakage and public awareness and conservation programs have a significant effect on reducing the tariff by an average of 13% in the period 1995-2000, and by 32% in the period 2000-2005, and by  138  about 40% during the period 2005-2050.  As indicated in  Figure 29, the biggest effect is from activation of the revenue collection  program.  A  comparison between Base 2 and  Base4  Base 3 simulation outputs reveals that  the  revenue  collection  program is responsible for about  Figure 30: Effects of Demand Management Programs & GW Policy on % of Per Capita Demand Supplied  50% of the reduction in tariff requirements. Groundwater policy, on the other hand, results in a slight (about l%-2%) increase in tariff. Figure 30 and Table B.37 indicate that the implementation of revenue collection, leakage and public awareness and conservation programs also have a considerable effect on increasing the per capita water supplied. Comparison of Base 2 and Base 3 output indicates that a reduction of about 25% in tariff has increased the per capita demand by 22%. This reflects the feedback mechanism built into the model structure to represent the water demand elasticity (see section 4.2.2 for details).  Overall Current and Desalination Strategy Evaluation The current and desalination strategy calls for development of the remainder of Jordan's fresh water resources and for meeting the growing demand by desalinating and transporting sea water from Aqaba to the major urban centers. This strategy focused on short- and long-term issues in the water sector. It has managed to arrest the depletion of groundwater resources and to preserve the resource for fiiture equitable use by M&I and irrigation. It also made use of supply and demand management techniques that have proved (in the simulation) to play a central role in reducing the long-term cost  139  of water to the consumers. This cost of M&I water supply under this strategy will double during the next fifteen years, but the consumers will enjoy an interruptible water supply. If the cost of water under this strategy were fully charged to consumers, water management institutions willfindthe required funds and resources to carry out its components in a timely fashion. Although the irrigated agricultural sector will enjoy increased quantities of surface water flows, it is essential to employ new technologies in treatment and reuse of treated wastewater for irrigation. The approach proposed by Qashu deserves to be investigated - i.e., desalination of wastewater flows and linking the energy and water sector. This strategy relied on water imports for about 12% of the total supplies. The remainder of the supplies originated from within the country. Although the cost of desalting Sea water and transporting it to the major urban centers might prove to cost more than importing M&I water from neighboring countries, the issue of security and reliability of M&I water supplies could play a central role in formulating policies and making decisions in favor of desalination.  4.4.3  Current and Water Import Strategy The current and water import strategy relies on completing the current strategy projects and  on importing M&I water supply. As indicated in Table 9, this strategy relies on import of water from the Euphrates River in Syria and Iraq. Two projects were proposed to transport these supplies: Asad and A l Qaim. The Asad project was discussed previously in the current and desalination strategy. The A l Qaim project aims at diverting 880 M C M / year from the Euphrates River as it leaves the Syrian territories and enters Iraq (ROID, 1993). The project is set to be carried out in two stages, each delivering 440 MCM/ year. The project's total cost was estimated in 1992 at 440 MJD for each stage.  As in the current and desalination strategy, by the year 2040, the Disi aquifer will be  140  completely mined, and its water supply for M&I will terminate. The Disi conveyor is assumed to be replaced to transport desalinated water from Aqaba. As shown in Table 9, twelve desalination units are assumed to be installed at a 5-year interval. Table 9: Current and Import Strategy Decision Control Parameters Simulation Setup Decision Control Parameter  Status/ Value  Major M&I Projects Start Dates Disi  1998  Al Qaim  ON (2013)  Al Qaim 2nd Stage  ON (2033)  Asad  ON (2005)  Desalination (12 desalination units, at a 5-year interval)  ON (2043)  As shown in Figure 31, the sources of M&I water supplies will heavily  Sources of M&I Water Supply (%)  depends on imported water supplies. Local surface and groundwater supplies will Year  play an ever decreasing role  Figure 31: Source of M&I Water Supply- Current & Import Strategy. in meeting M&I demand. The Figure also shows that by the year 2040 desalination will increase to account for about 10% of the supply. Performance indicators for this strategy are compared with the current and other strategies performance and can be reviewed by referring to Tables & Figures B.l-35 in Appendix B Overall Current and Water Import Strategy Evaluation  The current and water import strategy calls for the development of the remainder of Jordan's 141  fresh water resources and for meeting the growing demand by importing water from Syria and Iraq. This strategy focused on short- and long-term issues in the water sector. It has managed to arrest the depletion of groundwater resources and to preserve the resource for future equitable use by M&I as well as irrigation. It also made use of supply and demand management techniques to manage the water supply conveyance and distribution network and to manage the demand in times of shortages. The future cost and tariff requirement of M&I water supply under this strategy is the lowest among all other strategies. The strategy will also provide enough water supplies to meet the full M&I demand of the growing population. The A l Qaim water supply project will supply 440 M C M / year. The project will traverse areas that currently use groundwater for irrigation. Since not all of the project's water supply will be used at once for M&I purposes, there will be some years with a surplus. This surplus can be used to allow some currently over-exploited aquifers to recover from the prolonged period of over-abstraction that they have experienced during the past ten years. The M&I water supplies under this strategy relied on imported sources for about 65% beyond the year 2015.  The remainder of the supplies originated from inside the country with  desalination accounting for about 15% in the year 2045. Although the cost of importing water could prove to rank lowest among other strategies, an important policy decision will have to be made. The issue of reliability and security of M&I supplies could have high weight in adopting a policy of reliance on imported supplies. A strategy that has a balanced combination of imported, desalinated and local supplies could prove to be more acceptable to Jordan's policy makers, even though the costs associated with such strategy could prove to be more expensive for the country and its citizens.  142  4.4.4  Water Reallocation Strategy The objective of this strategy is to reallocate current water resources currently used in  irrigation for use in the M & I water sector. This objective requires that the long-term sustainability of existing water resources be maintained. This translates that high priority should be placed on protecting surface and groundwater resources from pollution andfromdepletion by overuse. Policies to carry out this strategy will require decisions to be made at the highest political level in Jordan.  Water Resources to be Reallocated for M&I Use Several water projects are either under implementation or are planned for construction within the next five years. These projects were discussed under the current strategy option in this section. Under the reallocation strategy, no planned irrigation projects will be carried out. In addition, current resources used for irrigation purposes will be diverted for M & I use. Groundwater over-abstraction will need to be curtailed. Table 11 lists the groundwater basin's safe yield, current abstractions and the curtailment required. These diversions, however, will require new projects to transport the reallocated waters to their point of use. Besides the capital investment on conveyance, compensation to owners of irrigated lands will need to be made. This compensation reflects the farmer's investment in land preparation and farm equipment. It was assumed in this analysis, that a rate of compensation of 1000 JD/ dunum will convince farm owners to fallow their lands. The current number of privately owned wells used for irrigation purposes is 1669. The estimated capital expenditure on these wells ranged from 33,000 JD/ well in the Azraq area to 96,000 in the Yarmouk.  Table 12 lists the  reallocated surface water projects, and Table 13 lists the reallocated groundwater projects that need to be implemented. As shown in Tables 11,12 and 13, and summarized below in Table 10, the total financial cost of reallocating 306 M C M of currently used water for irrigation purposes is estimated to amount 1.55 billion JDs. This translates to a unit cost of water of about 5 JD/ M - a unit cost that 3  143  by far exceeds any of the M&I water supply projects considered in the previous strategies.  Source  Reallocated  Area  Projects Capital  Farmers  Total Financial  Quantity  Fallowed  Cost  Compensation  Cost  '000 MCM/ year  Dunums  MJD  MJD  MJD  Surface Water  206.0  217.1  610.7  217.1  827.8  Groundwater  100.2  342.1  281.7  437.4  719.1  Total  306.2  559.2  892.4  654.5  1546.9  •  The projects listed in Tables 12 and 13 were included in the reallocation strategy. The simulation setup for these projects and other decision variables is listed in Table \4. Figure 32 illustrates  the  performance of this  3: M&l Supply  4: Shortages in M C M  strategy in meeting the  growing M&I  demand.  1  It can be  f^l.  1000.00-  t 1  noted from Figure 32 and  Table  14 that  despite  the  reallocation  of  all  0.001990.00 [\]  fl  2005.00  2020.00 Years  Graph 2: Page 1  2035.00 1:38 P M 9(12(95  Figure 32: M&I Water Demand, Supply and Shortages - Reallocation Strategy. water  resources  currently used for irrigation purposes, the M&I water demand will outstrip the supply by the year 2015. By the year 2016 there will be a need to desalinate Sea water (or alternatively to import water) to augment M&I water supplies. Figure 33 shows the sources of supply for this strategy, and it  144  indicates the growing  100%  share of desalinated • % Desalinated  supplies  water  the  beyond  Sources of M&I Water Supply (%)  year • % Surface Water  2015.  Tables and p % Groundwater  B.1-B.35  Figures  2035  compare  the  performance of this  2045  Year  Figure 33: Sources of M&I Supply - Reallocation Strategy.  strategy to the other strategies discussed earlier in this section.  Overall Evaluation of the Reallocation Strategy A growing concern in Jordan has been placed on allocation of water resources. International finance agencies have consistently requested that Jordan should allocate irrigation water supplies for M&I uses. This strategy entails a process of adjustment in the water sector and the economy. The process of imposed underdevelopment is costly and entails economic andfinancialcosts, as well as adverse environmental and social impacts. This strategy shows that such reallocation will not materialize without having to dearly pay for it economically and financially. By the year 2005 the tariff requirement under this strategy will amount to about 150% of the tariff requirement under the water import strategy. At the same time water shortages will be 10% more than that under the import's strategy. Despite the poor financial and water supply performance of this strategy, fallowing of more than 80% of irrigated areas in Jordan will have a severe impact on the balance of payments of agricultural commodities. As most of the cropped irrigated area is fallowed, Jordan must rely on imports of almost all of its requirements in fruits and vegetables.  145  One important issue that has not been discussed in this thesis is the additional costs of treating and safely transporting wastewater flows to their point of reuse. Under this strategy, extreme care should be taken to prevent any source of contamination from reaching the reallocated M & I water supplies. ROID (1993), estimated the cost of treating wastewater flows to amount to about 1 billion JDs for the duration of this analysis. This includes employing state-of-the-art tertiary treatment technologies to assure that fresh water resources are safe from contamination. Reduction of irrigated areas by 80% will have severe impacts on the economic and social stability of the country. The process of fallowing most of Jordan's irrigated lands will have impacts that will propagate throughout the economic and social structure of the country. Several agriculture support services, manufacturing industries, import companies, farm workers will have to start looking for other jobs to do. Reduction of irrigated areas will also have it's severe environmental impacts in the Jordan Valley and on the highlands. Jordan is a semi-arid country, depending almost entirely on irrigation for the modest green areas that it has. The diversion of irrigation water for use in M&I purposes will mean that most of the country will lend it self to the process of desertification, a process that has long been the concern of the government and its people. Although this modest analysis has shown that the impacts are severe by any measure, the overall evaluation of this strategy is tantamount to placing Jordan between the rock and the hard place. The country will be squeezed out of its modest self sufficiency of agricultural products, and will rely totally on imports for its food stuff. It can thus be concluded that before any intention to reallocate irrigation water supplies for M&I purposes is called for, a thorough assessment of the financial, economic, environmental and social issues should be carried out.  146  Table 11: Needed Curtailment of Groundwater Abstraction (1992), in M C M Current  Safe Yield  Basin  Curtailment  Reallocated  Abstraction - Yarmouk  40.0  61.5  21.5  15.4  - J.Valley  21.0  40.4  19.4  16.6  - Amman-Zarqa  87.5  173.3  85.8  21.0  - Dead Sea  57.0  86.8.  29.8  16.0  - Azraq  24.0  48.4  24.4  0.1  9.0  21.8  12.8  3.6  37.0  10.8  0.0  27.5  275.5  443  193.7  100.2  - Jafr - Others Total Source: WAJ, 1993.  Table 12: Capital Expenditure of Reallocation of Surface Water Scheme  Yield  Supply Capital  Capital  Dunums*  Cost of Farm  Total  Cost/M  Cost  Fallowed  Equip. @ 1000  Cost  3  JD/Dunum  MCM/ Yr  JD/M  MJD  '000 Du.  MJD  MJD  A.Deir Alia-Amman, 1st Stage  40.7  0  0  41.8  41.8  41.8  B.W. Al-Arab-Irbid, 2nd Stage  35  3  105  35.9  35.9  141  C.Deir Alia-Amman, 2nd Stage  44.8  4.5  201.8  46  46  248  53  3  159  54.4  54.4  213  32.2  4.5  144.9  39  39  184  D. Yarmouk N. Conveyor F. W. Hasa to Karak &Tafielah  (,)  3  828 217.1 217.1 610.7 206 Total Calculated based on future conditions for irrigation diversion requirement, 1026 M / dunum in the Jordan Valley (A, B, 3  C, D) and 1211 M / dunum in the Southern Ghors (E, F). Source: ROID, 1993. 3  147  Table 13: Capital Expenditure on Reallocation & Allocation of Groundwater Basin  Capital Cost/ M  Farmer  No.  Farm.  Dunum*  Comp.  Total  Cost  Comp.  of  Compen-  Fallowed  Farm  Cost of  per well  wells  sation.  Equip.  Reall.  MJD  'OOODu  MJD  MJD  412  29.3  134  134  215.8  33194  551  18.3  30.8  30.8  49.2  38.5  96000  157  15.1  46.4  46.4  100  2.5  31  96000  6  0.6  1.3  1.3  32.9  5. J. Valley  2.5  41.5  62000  178  11  45.3  45.3  97.8  6. Dead Sea  2.5  40  71000  217  15.4  57.6  57.6  113  7. N. Wadi Araba  1  1.3  62000  6  0.4  1  1  2.7  8. S. Wadi Araba  1  2  62000  17  1.1  4.2  4.2  7.3  2.5  9  62000  59  3.7  20.6  20^6  33.3  11. Sirhan  1  5  71000  0  0  0  0  5  12. Hammad  1  6.8  71000  5  0.4  0.9  0.9  8.1  227.7  _  1608  95.3  342.1  342.1  665.1  1  9  375000  61  0  _  2.5  45  96000  0  0  _  61  _  1669  95.3  MJD  JD  2.5  52.5  71000  1  0.1  3. Yarmouk  2.5  4. J. River S.Wadis  JD/M 1. Amman- Zarqa 2. Azraq  9. Jafer Renewable  Total Renewable 10. Disi 9. Jafr Nonrenew.  Total  3  54  Total Nonrenew.  (,)  3  Capital  _  281.7  -  342.1  9 _  45  -  54  342.1  719.1  Calculated based on future conditions for irrigation diversion requirement: 795 M / dunum. Source: ROID, 1993. 3  148  Table 14: Reallocation Strategy Decision Control Parameters Simulation Setup Decision Control Parameter  Status/ Value  Major M&I Projects Start Dates Desalination (12 desalination units, at 5 years intervals)  O N (2016)  Supplv & Demand Managment Options Revenue Collection Program (RCP ON&OFF)  O N (1)  Leakage Reduction Program (LRP ON&OFF)  O N (1)  Public Awareness & Conservation Program (PA&CP ON&OFF)  ON(l)  Reallocation & Groundwater Policies ON(l)  Reallocation Policy M&I and Irrigation Projects Start Dates Karameh Dam  OFFC2050)  R. Kafrein  OFF(2050)  S. Ghors 2nd Stage  OFF(2050)  Tannur Dam  OFF(2050)  Northern Conveyor & Wehdah Dam  OFF(2050)  Mujib Dam  OFF(2050)  Wala Dam  OFF(2050) 1995  Wala M&I Diversion Surface Water Reallocation Projects Arab to Irbid  2008  Hasa & Karak  1998  N. Conveyor to Amman 2nd Stage  2003  Deir Alia Amman 2nd Stage  2005  North Ghor Conversion  1996  Groundwater Reallocation Projects Amman-Zarqa  2003  Azraq  1996  Dead Sea  2008  Jafr-Hammad-Sirhan  1998  Jordan Rift Side Wadis to Belqa  1996  Jordan Rift Side Wadis to Irbid  2008  Jordan Valley to Belqa  2010  Wadi Araba  1996  Yarmouk  2003  149  4.4.5  Development of the Yarmouk River Storage System This section briefly discusses the development of the Yarmouk River storage facilities. The  discussion is intended to present the simulation model outputs discussed in section 4.2.2, and how these outputs can be used in assessing development scenarios for the Yarmouk River system. As discussed earlier in section 4.2.2 of this thesis, the Yarmouk River simulation model is one component of a simulation system that portrays the irrigation system in the Jordan Valley. The Yarmouk River simulation model was formulated to investigate the reliability of flows under several development scenarios. This was done by testing the effects of variation in storage capacities of the two proposed reservoirs on the Yarmouk River, the Wehdah and the Mukhibah. It also included provisions for testing the effects of building a diversion weir intended to increase the water diversion efficiency into the King Abdullah Canal. The simulation model also provides for simulating the impact of upstream Syrian abstractions, and includes the capability of testing the effects of variations in the percentage of return flows resultingfromupstream use of the river's water for irrigation purposes. The other two outputs that are of particular importance to Jordan, are the M&I water quantities that this development will make available for Jordan. As mentioned earlier, the model outputs are used in the main simulation system. It should be noted that the results of the Yarmouk simulation model are preliminary and should not be used to draw any conclusions on the preferred development scenario. Further development and enhancement of this simulation model could prove beneficial to the entity responsible for the development of the Yarmouk River system. This model serves to illustrate the potential use of interactive model building environments for the evaluation of complex water resource development alternatives.  150  Simulation Runs Design Several preliminary simulations were carried out during the design of the simulation model. The aim was to arrive at the most adequate representation of the proposed reservoirs and other structures (diversion weir, M&I water diversion facilities). Upon completion of this stage, several simulations were designed to investigate the effects of building these facilities on the yield and reliability of the flows.  The initial simulation runs reflected the current conditions with no  development of storage or other facilities. Upon completion and verification of the results of the base case, experimentation with the addition of the proposed developments was carried out.  These  additions included incremental increases in the storage capacity for each reservoir, with and without the proposed diversion weir and under current and future Syrian abstractions with several return flow scenarios. A summary of these simulation outputs is included in Appendix C.  Evaluation ofAlternative Development Scenarios Following completion of the Yarmouk simulation model, various development scenarios were evaluated with and without, or with various combinations of the following reservoirs, weirs and upstream flow conditions: Wehdah reservoir; Mukhibah reservoir; K A C diversion weir; Current and future upstream Syrian abstractions; Current and future Syrian return flows. For each scenario the following outputs were determined: K A C divertible flows; undivertible flows; M&I diversions from Wehdah reservoir; M&I diversion by Deir Alla-Amman Scheme; flows reliability for all of the above. The following discussion will present the results of sixteen simulation runs carried out to assess the development potential of the Yarmouk River system. The following simulation setup design was used in the sixteen runs (see Appendix C for summary):  151  Current Conditions With and without diversion weir Mukhibah reservoir storage, in M C M (0, 100, 150, 175) Wehdah reservoir storage, in M C M (0, 150, 200, 225, 250)  Future Conditions With and without diversion weir Mukhibah reservoir storage, in M C M (0, 25, 5 0 , . . . . 275) Wehdah reservoir storage, in M C M (0, 25, 5 0 , . . . . 275) Future Syrian abstractions Return flow, in % (0%, 15%, 30%) Although the analysis of the simulation runs can cover many pages of graphical and numerical presentations and discussion, it was thought to be beneficial to limit the discussion on one of the important outputs from these simulations. The following discussion will present a brief analysis of the variation of K A C divertible flows with the Yarmouk River reservoir's storage capacities. This analysis will serve to illustrate the potential use of interactive model building environments for the evaluation of complex water resource development alternatives.  Variation ofKAC Divertible Flows with Reservoirs Capacities The simulation experiments show that, under current conditions, the biggest enhancement to K A C divertibleflowscomesfromthe construction of a diversion weir. This effect can be clearly seen by comparing Tables and Figures C . l and C.2. The divertible flow decreases as the reservoir's storage capacities increase. This decrease is attributed to the increase in M&I diversions from the Wehdah reservoir. Nevertheless, as the diversion weir is installed, the divertible flows increase by 32% with and without the reservoirs.  152  The reliability of the K A C divertible flows is enhanced as the two reservoirs' storage increase. The simulation runs indicate that the Mukhibah reservoir has greater influence on increasing the reliability of K A C divertible flows than Wehdah. This effect can be seen by comparing Figure 34 and Figure 35. As shown in these Figures, the Mukhibah reservoir (at 275 M C M storage) reduces the standard deviation of the flow by 31%, while Wehdah reduces the same by only 11%. The combined effect of having an identical storage for the two reservoirs is slightly higher than that for Mukhibah. Figure 36 shows that the standard deviation of the K A C divertible flows with identical reservoir storage reduces by 33.4%. It also can be noted from Figures 34-36 (the probability mass functions and the recurrence curves) and Figures 37 and 38 (the probability surface mass function) that the storage reservoirs have ah important effect in concentrating the flows around a mean of about 17-20 M C M / month, and making these flows available when needed seasonally (not shown in Figures). This is besides the considerable reduction of high divertible flows (in excess of 30 M C M / month) which usually carries with them high sediment loads and are usually wasted once diverted by the K A C . This analysis can considerably enhance the decision maker's ability in selecting an appropriate storage capacity for the two reservoirs. The selection, however, will be governed by other issues in addition to those presented in Figures 34-38. Besides the higherfinancialcosts of building higher and larger dams, issues such as M&I Wehdah diversions (see Figure C . l 1), Deir Alia M&I diversions (see Figures C. 5 and C. 10), percent of Syrian return flows (see Figure C. 9), downstream flow requirement to satisfy international agreements (see Figure C. 7), or a combination of the above factors (see Figure C.8), they all play key roles in making the decision on what storage capacity should be installed.  153  Figure 34.a: Variation of Divertible KAC Flows with Mukhibah Reservoir Storage  100  Recurrence  (%)  KAC Divertible Flows (MCM/ Month)  • 80-100 • 60-80 • 40-60 Mukhibah Dam Storage (MCM)  0.50  Figure 34.b: Probability Mass Function for KAC Divertible Flow, with Mukhibah @ 0 MCM I  0.40 0.30  I£ 0.20 Q_  <  •V  0.10  0.00  '  10  j  ——  I  15 20 25 30 35 40 KAC Divertible Flow, MCM/ Month  45  Figure 34.c: Probability Mass Function for KAC Divertible Flow, with Mukhibah @ 275 MCM 0.50  15 20 25 30 35 40 KAC Divertible Flow, MCM/ Month  154  50  AA-  0 20-40 • 0-20  KAC Divertible Flows, MCM/ Mon. Statistical Indicators Average 17.74 Variance 125.57 Standard Deviation 11.21 Skewness 1.12 Median 14.90 Kurtosis 0.61 Annual Average 212.90 Max 54.00 Min 2.09  55 KAC Divertible Flows, MCM/ Mon. Statistical Indicators Average 18.98 Variance 60.05 Standard Deviation 7.75 171 Skewness 18.05 Median Kurtosis 4.92 Annual Average 227.72 Max 54.00 Min 7.16 Simulation Run Setup: Wehdah (225), Future Syrian Abstractions, 30% Return Flows, With Weir.  Figure 35.a: Variation of Divertible KAC Flows with Wehdah Reservoir Storage  lllplil  100  iillff 1  lllpii  \  lip iipii  90  TB-ao i f ff  m  70 60  50  •  Recurrence (%)  ^mmmmmmm 40 30 20 10 0  KAC Divertible Flows (MCM/ Month)  275  Wehdah Reservoir Storage (MCM)  0.50  Figure 35.b: Probability Mass Function for K A C Divertible Flow, with Wehdah @ 0 MCM  0.40 £•0.30  •  CO  •§0.20  I i _.j  ft  0.10 i  0.00  0.50  10  i  4 f A-  _]\ I L  ^kfc  L  i  i  i  'AAA 4 A 4 A A  15 20 25 30 35 40 KAC Divertible Flow, MCM/ Month  45  50  0.40  0.20  A  >  1  1"4r  0.10 0.00  i  A  j  i  '  10  --  15  20 25 30 35 40 KAC Divertible Flow, MCM/ Month  155  90-100 80-90 70-80 60-70 50-60 40-50 30-40 20-30 10-20 0-10  KAC Divertible Flows, MCM/ Mon. Statistical Indicators Average 19.83 Variance 105.96 Standard Deviation 10.29 Skewness 1.70 Median 16.02 Kurtosis 2.19 Annual Average 237.92 Max 54.00 Min 6.91  55  Figure 35.c: Probability Mass Function for K A C Divertible Flow, with Wehdah @ 275 MCM  ^0.30  • • • • • • • • • •  lA-Alk-i A A 45 50 55  KAC Divertible Flows, MCM/ Mon. Statistical Indicators 17.77 Average Variance 84.21 Standard Deviation 9.18 1.84 Skewness 15.19 Median Kurtosis 3.27 213.26 Annual Average Max 54.00 5.56 Min Simulation Run Setup: Mukhibah Storage (175) Future Syrian Abstractions, 30% Return Flows, With Weir.  Figure 36.a: Variation of Divertible KAC Flows with Wehdah & Mukhibah Reservoirs Storage  100  •  |!|! I  90  f-80 •..  1-70 1 en 1 1Recurrence  -50  (%)  -40  ;:;|;!|:-30 :  20 10 0  KAC Divertible Flows (MCM/ Month)  Wehdah & Mukhibah Storage (MCM)  0.50  Figure 36.b: Probability Mass Function for KAC Divertible Flow, with Wehdah & Mukhibah @ 0 MCM j  0.40  J?  i  0.30  | 0.20 al  |—  *\  A  0.10 0.00  SB 90-100 • 80-90 B 70-80 • 60-70 • 50-60 • 40-50 030-40 • 20-30 • 10-20 • 0-10  i  j  1 10  15  20  25  30  •  m  i  i  35  40  MAMA  45  50  55  KAC Divertible Flows, MCM/ Mon. Statistical Indicators Average 20.07 Variance 134.21 Standard Deviation 11.58 Skewness 1.15 Median 15.81 Kurtosis 0.55 Annual Average 240.80 Max 54.00 Min 2.87  KAC Divertible Flow, MCM/ Month  0.50  Figure 36.c: Probability Mass Function for KAC Divertible Flow, with Wehdah & Mukhibah @275 MCM  \  _0.40  J  /  J?0.30 |  0.20  tx  •  i  ^ i'  \  0.10 0.00  ii •  10  15  20  25  30  \ — 35  I  40  KAC Divertible Flow, MCM/ Month  156  \ AM.  y—i. A  45  50  55  KAC Divertible Flows, MCM/ Mon. Statistical Indicators Average 19.18 Variance 59.48 Standard Deviation 7.71 Skewness 1.55 Median 18.38 Kurtosis 4.32 Annual Average 230.12 Max 54.00 Min 7.16  Simulation Run Setup: Future Syrian Abstractions, 3 0 % Return Flows, With Weir.  Figure 37: Variation of KAC Divertible Flow Probabilities with Mukhibah Reservoir Storage  Mukhibah Reservoir Storage (MCM)  157  Figure 38: Variation of KAC Divertible Flow Probabilities with Mukhibah & Wehdah Reservoirs Storage  158  5. C O N C L U S I O N S A N D R E C O M M E N D A T I O N S  This Chapter provides the conclusions and recommendations for future research. The conclusions on appropriate water management frameworks represent the author's views on a management framework thought to be capable of addressing the growing complexity of water management practice in Jordan. This is followed by conclusions on the strengths, limitations and applicability of the System Dynamics approach to water management in Jordan.  The Chapter  concludes with recommendations for future research needed to further improve the conceptual and practical aspects of water management in Jordan.  5.1  Appropriate water management framework Jordan now stands at the door step of a major water crisis. It believed that an appropriate  water management framework is urgently needed to prevent social and economic disruptions that could accompany the anticipated water crisis. Over the past five decades, several developments in the conceptual framework for water resource management have taken place. This thesis explored these frameworks, and concluded that it should encompass both the technical and administrative aspects of water management. On the technical side, every effort should be made to assure the sustainable and efficient use of the scarce water resources. On the administrative side, policy and decision analysis frameworks promise to provide a rational and systematic approach to water management. The two aspects should be based upon two principles: ecosystem management and collaborative decision making. Ecosystem management emphasizes resource conditions and long-  159  term resource sustainability. The role of water management is to assure that human intervention in the biophysical systems are effective in meeting socio-economic objectives, while ensuring desirable levels of ecosystem health and integrity. Collaborative policy and decision analysis assures that different perspectives and values are included in the process of formulating water management policies, decisions and strategies. This thesis recognized that the process of evolution of an appropriate water management framework for Jordan might take years to be fully appreciated, developed and accepted. To start such a process, the thesis proposed an intermediate framework to initiate an experimental process with the objective of reaching a long-term water management framework capable of meeting the challenge of water scarcity. This intermediate framework consists of four components: •  A set of goals and objectives to govern the day-to-day operations as well as water management strategies of the water sector in Jordan.  •  A unified criterion for the evaluation of water management strategies.  •  A unified policy and decision analysis framework that considers risk and uncertainty.  •  A System Dynamics approach for problem identification and the analysis of change. Much water related literature exists on the first and third components. This thesis focused  attention on the System Dynamics approach, and used it to portray the structure of Jordan's water sector and to devise a set of "Performance Indicators" that could form an essential step towards the evolution of a unified criterion for the evaluation of water management strategies in Jordan.  5.2  System Dynamics: Strengths, limitations and Applicability to Water Management The System Dynamics approach helps understanding of the complex nature of real-world  systems. The approach fulfils a need that is currently lacking in the reviewed water management  160  frameworks - the concept of controllability. The approach is a policy oriented modeling technique that provides steps for the design of policies and management systems aimed at achieving improved system behavior. Several features distinguish System Dynamics from other water management approaches: •  The system viewpoint,  •  Transparency of concepts through causal and flow diagrams,  •  Feedback analysis,  •  Fast, dynamic simulations,  •  Flexibility of scenario generation and policy testing,  •  Ability to represent the structure of the water sector,  •  Reliance on several sources of information: mental, written, and numeric,  »•  Ability to dynamically interact with the computer simulation system allowing real-time gaming and testing of decisions and policies by one or a group of decision makers. An important function of the System Dynamics approach is to use its set of tools as credible  supports to the policy and decision-making processes.  Simulation systems that are carefully  formulated act as decision-making aids that stimulate creativity andfilterthe mental models of users. These simulation systems are not in any sense meant to replace decision-makers or even to inhibit their role in making decisions; rather, they are developed to help and support them in achieving better decisions. The System Dynamics approach could offer a lot in terms of better planning and solving water resource related problems. It is not intended to replace or substitute for the traditional water resource modeling approaches. Rather, it should complement and be integrated with the existing approaches, to contribute, in a collective manner, to solving water resource problems. The most suitable setting for using System Dyiiamics simulations systems are in strategic studies concerned with  161  policy analysis and decision-making in the field of water resource management. These policies and decisions, taken singly or in combination, can then be examined and evaluated during successive simulation runs to determine the most adequate policy or decision to be adopted. The reliance of System Dynamics on mental and written information both constitute a strength and a weakness. Its strengths stem from the value of involving the water resource system operators and mangers in the model building phase. This can have considerable benefits in enhancing the credibility of the model. The weakness, however, stems from the fact that not all mental models can be relied upon for representation of the system structure and the policies that govern its operations. Along with the advantages of using System Dynamics in water management, the approach has its limitations: •  The approach works mainly through the time dimension; spatial aspects and distribution effects are not easily accounted for.  •  The approach relies on aggregate simulation systems intended to show policy and decision impacts in terms of approximate magnitudes and direction of change.  More detailed  simulation systems intended to provide detailed system description tend to become cumbersome and more difficult to handle. •  System Dynamics simulation systems are deterministic in nature, yet randomness and stochastic effect can be easily incorporated, thus accounting for future uncertainties and variabilities.  •  The main aims of System Dynamics simulation systems is to aid policy-makers in reaching an adequate policy mix. Manual trial and error with the simulation system can become a tedious and difficult task. The combination of System dynamics simulation systems and policy and decision analysis frameworks could help to solve this problem.  162  *•  In the past, System Dynamics large scale studies created much controversy when first introduced. However, the basic methods employed by System Dynamics are now considered applicable to modeling water resource management systems. The approach interprets validity as model usefulness rather than numerical exactness. The literature includes a wide range of both qualitative and quantitative validity tests (Senge, 1977; Ford, 1987; Morecroft, 1992; Barlas, 1989). Some of these tests are available in software form (e.g., S T E L L A II). As indicated in this thesis, the System Dynamics approach offers a systematic methodology  for tackling managerial as well as physical water management systems and allow for their interaction. Its use in water resource management allows the investigator to explore some deep and intellectually challenging problems. These problems have traditionally been the subject of extensive individual investigations. The approach offers a unifying methodology in tackling the water problem in Jordan.  5.3  Recommendations for Future Research The results of this study suggest a number of research topics related to the current work that  are worthy of future exploration. Four specific suggestions for follow up work needed to improve the simulation system are described briefly.  1.  Uncertainty Analysis. The analysis of several management strategies employed in this thesis  was preliminary and deterministic in nature. It did not include uncertainty analysis for some important parameters of the simulation system. Procedures to test the effects of demand side uncertainty and supply side uncertainty need to be carried out. A procedure developed by Ford (Ford, 1990) to measure uncertainty by the width of tolerance intervals of key system variables could prove essential for a sound policy and decision analysis process.  2.  Expansion and Verification of the Simulation System. The prototype simulation system  163  presented in this thesis included the analysis of the municipal and industrial water sector in Jordan. Expansion of the simulation system to include other sectors such as financial issues related to the irrigation water sector and the wastewater sector is essential if the full scale model is to be used for design of alternative water policies or to aid the decision-making process. In addition, water quality issues will play an increasing role in management of water resources in Jordan. Inclusion of the main variables (e.g., salinity) that could reflect the present and future status of water quality in the country is essential if the simulation is to be used effectively. Verification and credibility of the simulation system will only come if it is used by the practitioners in the water sector in Jordan. The simulation system was built in an attempt to represent the complex structure of the water sector in Jordan. Some simulation system's components are provocative and controversial in nature. Extensive discussion and careful constructive scrutiny of the system will promote its future improvements and credibility.  3.  The Dynamics ofDecision-Making. The simulation system provides a dynamic analysis tool  for the water sector in Jordan. Current decision methodologies deal with aggregated data for decision making. A methodology to include decisions on a dynamic basis needs to be devised and tested. Frequent changes in decision makers' preferences and values over time have caused much confusion and panic for the water management entities in Jordan. The dynamics and impacts of these changes have not been documented previously. An expanded simulation system would enable testing the effects of changes in preferences and values on the performance of the water sector in Jordan. It is believed that the combination of decision analysis methodologies with the System Dynamics approach could provide the necessary environment for such analysis.  4.  Use ofInteractive Simulation Environments in Water Management. Simulation tech  have long been used by water resource professionals to solve complex technical problems. Although  164  these simulation techniques will continue to play a major role in water resources' development, very few of them were designed to reflect the nature of water resource management - a process that relies on a multitude of professional backgrounds, conflicting interests and concerns. Recent developments in the computer software industry have made several advances in the model building environments and capabilities (e.g., STELLA and POWERSIM). Few case studies in water resource management illustrated the value of using such tools in arriving at consensus in group decision situations. 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Shawwash, University of British Columbia.  ©1995 Ziad K. Shawwash. E-Mail: ShawwashSCIvil.UBC.CA  Figure C. 2a: Stock Stock pad showing the initial value of the stock and its documentation. Note that the stock can be used as conveyor, reservoir, queue or oven.  •  Deht_MJD ® Reservoir  D  Non-negative  O Conveyor  O Queue  O Oven  Debt or surplus, and is taken as the difference between the M&l revenues cash inflows and the M&l costs outflows, in Million Jordanian Dinars (MJD]. (1 J.D. = 0.69 USS)  •  INITIAL(DebtMJD)  Bide ftoctrfflentj | Massage,  Figure C. 2b: Stock The stock can also assume any variable value as its value.  • •  Debt_MJD ® Reservoir  O Conveyor  Non -negative  Allowable Inputs • AI_Qaim_2nd_Stage_Date • AI_Qaim_Date • Amman_Zarqa_GW_Basi... O Amman_Zarqa_Reall_Date • Arab to Irbid Reall Date •  O Queue  INmALfDebt_MJDI = ...  176  (2(213  O Oven  Figure C . 3a: Flow Documentation of the flow. Note the structure of the logic equation. The flow can be either Biflow, or Uniflow, and it can have a unit conversion  M & l_Reve n u e s <§> U N I F L O W O B I F L O W  LZl Usui cssnvftrssiwn M&I r e v e n u e s , is taken a s the histroical revenues of the sector up to the y e a r 1991. B e y o n d 1991. it is calcualted a s the quantity of water supplied * the Water Tariff * Accounted for W a t e r [AFW], and is indexed (where applicable] to either the current or constant costs index lCPI_or_CCI_lndex]J  •§?'M&l_Revenues = ... if TIME <= 1991 then [M&l_Revenues_73_91*CPI_or_CCI_lndex] |M&l_Future_Revenues*CPI_or_CCI_lndex]  Figure C . 3b: Flow The flow can also be programmed. The input variables determines what are the inputs to the equations. It can also become a graph.  • ©  M 8 l_Reve n u e s <§> U N I F L O W O B I F L O W •  else  Unit conversion Builtins  Required Inputs O O 0  CPI_or_CCI_lndex MSI_Future_Revenues MSI_Revenues_73_91  i  inn  ABS AND ARCTAN CAP CGROWTH COOKTIME  'jr'M&M^evenues = , if TIME <= 1991 then [M&l_Revenues_73_91*CPI_or_CCI_lndex] lM&l_Future_Revenues*CPI_or_CCI_lndex)  Figure C 4a: Converter The converter can become a graph function. The counter built-in function repeats the graphical function every 28 time steps.  Input 0.000 I. 000 2.000 3.000 4.000 5.000 6.000 7.000 8.000 9.000 10.00 II. 00 12.00 Data Points COUiMTER[1.28]  177  else  Output 0.000 30.24 34.18 28.93 49.22 61.00 57.73 42.04 36.80 35.49 31.56 35.49 31.56  i  Figure C. 4b: Converter The converter also has the facility of documentation  M&l_Wehdah_Supply  0  Municipal and industrial water supply from Al Wehdah reservlor. The flows listed by this source are output from the Jordan Irrigation System Operation Sector (a seperate monthly model]. Flows are in million cubic meters per year, and for a duration of 28 years. The COUNTER  M&l_Wehdah_Supply = Graph of...  0  COUNTER[1.28)  |" t-o<5raph  Figure C. 4c: Converter Programming of the converter is possible.  | |HldeftocbtftefttlCMlfrsaa&fti IjSaftfcglJ f. P*  .1  M&l_Tariff_in_Fils  0  [Municipal and Industrial (M&l) water tariff. The tariff is set by a combination of two feedback loops. The first is from the Municipal and Industrial Annual Installments tor Capital Cost Recovery stock. As this variable increases, it increases the tariff, conversely, as it decreases.  M&l_Tariff_in_Fils = Graph of...  0  M&l Annual Installments for CCR FPCM  Figure C. 4d: Converter The inputs determines what goes into equations, and built-in functions can be used in these equations.  M&l_Tariff_ln_Fils  0  Required Inputs O  0  M&l_Annual_lnstallments.  M&l_Tariff_in_Fils = Graph of... M&l_Annual_lnstallments_for_CCR_FPCM|  178  Builtins ABS AND ARCTAN CAP C GROWTH COOKTIME  »**  Figure C. 4e: Converter The graph function can become a discrete stepped graph.  Input 0.000 200.00 400.00 600.00 800.00 1000.00 1200.00 1400.00 1600.00 1800.00 2000.00 2200.00 2400.00  4000.0 M &  I  T a r I f 0.000 o.ooo  J 3 _ X  0.000  Z400.00  4200.00  M&l_Annual_lnstallments_for_CC...  Figure C 4g: Converter The converter can also become variable dependant on time. Note the documentation of the variable, and the source of information, and the description of the logic used.  0  Output 500.00 500.00 500.00 700.00 900.00 1100.00 1300.00 1500.00 1700.00 1900.00 2100.00 2300.00 2500.00  Data Points: 122 E d i t  0 u t D U t :  Consumer_Price_lndex_CPI_10096_@_1995  Consumer Price Index 100% at 1995 (CPI/ 95). The Index represents the historical increase In consumer prices for the period (1973-1992] as published by the Department of Statistics, and the Central Bank of Jordan. The CPI increase rate for the period 1992-2050 was calculated  0  Consumer_Prlce_lndex_CPI_IOO%_@_1995 = Graph of...  1 TIME i  ?«$*»p* i o ^ j & M i i wmmm C M i O L J  179  Figure C. 4h: Converter Converter as a graphical time function. Data can be pasted from other applications.  Input  1980.00 1981.00 1982.00 1983.00 1984.00 1985.00 1986.00 1987.00 1988.00 1989.00 1990.00 1991.00 1992.00  Output 0.378 0.407 0.437 0.459 0.477 0.492 0.491 0.533 0.507 0.633 0.736 0.725 0.794  Data Points: 78 Edit Output:  Figure C. 4i: Converter It also can use many built-in functions, such as "PULSE", and it provides pn-line-help to the user.  Al Qaim Water supply project capital cost. The costs have been spread over the period of expected construction of the project and have also been divided between two stages of construction. Stage 2 of the project will take place when the date for it is activated. Note the  O AI_Qaim_Capital_Cost = PULSE[{3.22*.5),Al_Qaim_Date-5.179J + PULSEI[29.22*.5J.AI_Qaim_Date-4.179) + | | B e c o m e Graph | |HI<teOacHmentj [ M e s s a g e . . ,  Figure C. 4j: Converter A sample converter using the PULSE built-in function.  j [ . C a i t s e l J L&JL^J  O AI_Qaim_Capital_Cost  Required Inputs • AI_Qaim_2nd_Stage_Date • Al Qaim Date  iimni  Builtins ABS AND ARCTAN CAP C GROWTH COOKTIME  O AI_Qaim_Capital_Cost = ... If Al QaimDate = 2050 then 0 else d PULSE([3.22*5),AI_Qaim_Date-5.179) + BeRome B r a p h | [  180  Dttcamerdt* J [ Massage,... J I'Cancgt j |  OK  Figure C. Sa: On-Line-Help High-Level Mapping layer extensive On-Line-Help to aid the user in finding his way around the simulation system.  Water Resources & Supply Sector The "Water Resources and Use Sector" includes the water resources that are diverted or to be diverted in the future for municipal and other water uses. It also includes surface and groundwater resources and their use with their past and future potentials. This sector links the Jordan Valley model, and it uses its output, particularly for Wehdah and Deir Alia municipal water supply.  i  Figure C. Sa: On-Line-Help High-Level Mapping layer On-Line-Help to aid the user in knowing the links between the simulation system sectors.  Connects from: Water Supply & Demand., to: Water Financial Sector To: From: 0 LProgCapital.. O M&l_CapHal_... Q AFW O M&l_Future_R.. 0 LProg_Runnin.. O M8l_Capital_... O AFW O M&l_Annual_l... 0 PAware_8_Co.. O M&l_Capital_... O M&l_Supplied O M&l_Future_R.. O M&l_Supplied •g>M&l_Cost Q M&l_Supplied O M & l _ A " n u a U - •M  181  S  K  a  APPENDIX B Selected Numeric and Graphic Outputs of the Performance Indicators  182  CL  183  57.4 793.3 282.1 117.4 74.5 82.9 103.0 122.7 146.7 169.4  223.5  2045-50  Current 20.4 87.1 64.3  1975-80 1980-85 1985-90 1990-95 1995-00 2000-05 2005-10 2010-15 2015-20 2020-25 2025-30 2030-35 2035-40  Period  I  CO  in  in  in  CM  in  359.9 511.4 589.7 699.4 717.9 912.7 1066.4 1260.7  CM  144.3 147.7 118.3 66.2 53.3 61.8 73.9 86.6  284.7 353.5 323.8 260.3 321.5 358.8 500.2 779.4  CM  2740.0  co  Figure B.2 Reallocation  366.2 571.1 664.8 870.0 836.5 1099.1 1055.1 1345.3  l-  2010-15 2015-20 2020-25 2025-30 2030-35 2035-40 2040-45 2045-50  iri  16.8 21.4 52.4 127.5  in  1112.5  Reallocation 20.4 87.1 64.3 53.6 574.5 1464.9 983.6 1098.2 1693.0 1794.9 1868.2 2237.1 2300.6  >-  Table B.2: Avg Instalments for CCR, MJD/Year Period R A TE G Current Current & Desalination Current & Import 1975-80 11980-85 1985-90 16.8 16.8 16.8 1990-95 21.4 21.4 21.4 60.7 60.8 60.8 11995-00 2000-05 123.5 155.1 134.7  .— i n  974.2  R A T E G Current & Desa lination Current & Import 20.4 20.4 87.1 87.1 64.3 64.3 57.7 57.7 794.1 794.1 1503.1 759.6 433.2 267.9 1839.1 1314.5 507.3 80.5 2412.1 99.9 655.9 192.8 3000.0 2185.3 2030.2 163.2  CL  m CSI  >-  — (  •a CD  o d o  8  e  0  8  o  CN CO  o d o  o  Q o  LO  1  8  c o  o  o d  CO  5  III  8  — CO  co  CQ  in  88  £  iri co  S3'  o  CO I cd  3 ] l  o3  8  a. a . 3  w  CO I  I' & $  5  o  a:  1/5  oo  3  3  8  § § § I 8  10  8 184  8 CN  CO  5  s roo in  3  2  CD  38  CD  XI CO  Q  CO  US O CN  185  C .g  s  1  ro  cCeO  >0  i  c g w  II ii  urr ent  (-  <  CO 03 ro  ro o CN d  CN  T—  ai d  » rC CD o J-O Lc CN CN oC at CO CO d N t-  ai d  O O) C n r- CO o U3 CO a i q CO CN T - ' y iMai»-LO d d O d CN CN CN f  o  O o d d  o  o  h-  ion  u  d  d  co  ro  ;alin  a. fc  LO CD o o o CN CN a i CO  T—  CD •c o UJ E CL  1  I  r- o CO < O) d CM <\i i  io  II  a  o3  c CO  00  m  £  o  CI  Curr  CO  00 00 C 11 COro LO CN CM r-- CO CD CN CO CliM C*N- CO R 8 9 LO LO ro CN LO CN C CD o  d  os 8 C uO S d LO  o  'C  CO 0-  C (3O 1  ai  o eall  „8 > « a LO 8 L CO N 8 LO • ro d L O L O L O 1 o 5 i o Q ro -t ON CN ro RRRC R LO o o R R CN CM CN  CD d co CO CO LO LO U  ro o  1  o d  d  CN , - CN CO LO a i 01 •<}• CD 3 aa ii aa ii aa ii Ka i CD ro CO 00 O) Ol  QC >-  CJ  r»  <  urrent & 1  Q. E  i-  UOI  LU  •c  r-  s  o d  co *~. <~  LO LO Ii T' CO 3 r>-  CD CO •* «- »— CO Ol 8 8 co feat Ol s CO  o  a  3 co  S3 01  Q o3  S  C  o CO d u- r~ L O d 3 <D, J $ CO CO LO LO U 3 r- cn  o  d  CN a i LO 03 Lfi CT) a i 5  oi ai CO a i  o  ra E co Q ro  $ ro O co  CO a i L O LO co u c•i CNo D h-' ro C LO u}3 CCO Oa i LO L O L O CO  o (U  CN CO C OO o 4s CCON CN R  LO cf> S3 LOO LO o LO 8 LO Q CQ 8 CO CO 8 05 C3 O CN CN CO LO d LO 6 u3 d 5 LO d LO I i 1 rC O C O co c CN CN ro LO o i s 8 o to 0) C O CO • c3 <— - CO N CN o CM o CN R O CN o CN a CM CN CN o  a. c  186  CO CO •q-  CO 3  T3  Curr  i  esal  ro co g 1  i  >-  r-  LL  187 R A T E G Current & Desalination Current & Import 50.4 50.4 47.2 47.2 45.6 45.6 45.8 45.8 58.0 58.0 68.8 68.8 74.4 74.4 75.6 75.6 77.0 ! 77.0 77.0 77.0 77.6 77.6 78.0 78.0 78.4 78.4 79.0 79.0 79.0 79.0  ' Water Reallocation 50.4 47.2 45.6 45.8 58.0 68.8 74.4 75.6 77.0 77.0 77.6 78.0 78.4 79.0 79.0  Figure B.9  | |  Table B.10: % Leakage CL  >-  1  i-  |  %  or o  3  c  ro  o  <u Q 03  1o  CM d d CO ro CM CO  o o o  o o CM d d CO ro ro CM o o o  c o o O fu d d 3 ro ro  o  CM CO CM  S  in  o o o ID in  •«*  Reallocation 30.0 30.0 30.0 28.2  Figure B.10  CO  o  CO  o o o o o o o  id in •sr  CO  CO  LO o in o in in o in eg CO ro cn § in 6 in 6 in 6 r£ co o o> ro CO 01 co 00 05 O) o o CN o O CM o C M CN o CM CN O C CN M CM  A3  O  «f  R  |  <  o o o  in  I  °a c  O  I  1-  | |  LU E  |  (3  o OS I  Table B.9: % Accountec Period Current 1975-80 50.4 1980-85 47.2 1985-90 45.6 1990-95 45.8 1995-00 56.8 2000-05 59.0 2005-10 59.0 2010-15 59.2 2015-20 60.0 2020-25 60.0 2025-30 60.0 2030-35 60.0 2035-40 60.8 2040-45 61.0 2045-50 61.0  o O O o o o •* CO cd CO cd  cd CO CO cd  o o o o o o o CO cd CO cd  o  1 o o o o o o o •+ CO CO CO cd  o  in  I  o  £ V  iS  3 S$  CD CU  CN  CO CO  m  I E oa  o  8  8  CD  CO  CN  b O  e Iro ro O c  0)  8  01  Q  »a c  2  O  CO  CD  °>  CO  CO  CN  2S  "3 O)  (0 E 5  5 S  Q  ho  m  8 CN  LO • <*>  8  s  4>  s  ? M §§8 S 8 o  V  V  v  w  vi m  S=  •a e  •6  4)  CO  R-' CO  Q  Ii ai a CU w oi (3  '°> S 41 _  £ s (0 CQ  9> Ul  2  CU  O  O  8 5«  8 <N  188  «  2s 3  . V  V  «-  t-  o>  5  3  8  8  8  2  oo iS  R E  CN CN  CN Lfj CO CN  I  CO CO CD CO  O 5  >• a a  o CN csi  9  5  8  o CN  S k i t !  m  (0 {0 O- ^  Ol  CO CD  CD CN  O a a  3 00 01  I  01  0  189  o' <CNN CO  CO CO  8  CD O  ID  Realloc  Q  £ s <•?_<? s s ° £ £ g §  i  CD  Import  V  UJ CO r-- CO CO (- °a 8 CN 8 8 8 1* < or  r-  r- r-  888888888  CO CO CO CD CN CD O o CO C CN CO CO 8 8  CO r- CO o> •<r t C-i 8 CCOO CCCOOD 8 1 CLCONN CCLONN CCLONN CLCONN CCNN CN CO  Year  co  8  Currei  P  1o CO r- CO o r-8 CCCOON 8 oi CO CO CD CD CO CO CD CD CD CO CM CM CO  Current & Desalinat ion  1•  Current  IS  & E  8  co' o>  8  r~ rr- ^_ ^ CO to 8 CD a 8 CCOD isCD  * CM CO <° LO CN  1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050  j?  UO|  <  c o  roo  o  0) C O CO r-~ L—O_. ,—.  v-' r-^ LO CD LO " o § LO CD CD CD  "ro  CO  ^J"  CO  CO  CD 1"-. CO  O) CD CO  C£  Imp  XL o  O o  LO  c E 3 O  9  OD CO CO ^ CD CN 03 CO , ' CO 8 6 CCON to D CD to 03 ^ - LO C CD rCO CO CO C33 CD OS  oS  c  .o  & Des  ro c ro  ren  CO  E CO b o  O o O) CO co CD LO LO LO C N ,—' LO r-' CD CO LO L03 O LO ? V 9 8 CO CD 8 CO 8 5) 8 S r»  03 CO CO T— CO CO 03 OO to co LO r-' ^-i CD CM CN *J CD 52 Q 03 LO CD CO CO r~ t~- CD CO o CO r- CO 03 CO 00 CO CO O o  LO cn  190  LO o LO o LO O 10 CO CD o O 03 03 C33 CD o O O o CN CN CN CN  8  o LO CN CM O O CN CN  I-  LO  CO.  8,  CO CO  I  id  CO 10  o  o  9  CN  i CM CM  P 51 5  co  Is  csi  CM CM  Q  Ol CM  b  3  o E  i ID  ra  CD CN  CD  8 CN  oo  B o  3?  CM  I*  CD  ro ID  CO  <D Q  10 cd  8  08  CO  co  t  w E o  3  191  I^  o  Reallocation  Figure B.20  o o o O o o o O o o O o o d d d d d d d d d d d d d d O  >  0 *r | E LU t< OT  h-  03 c  o o o o o d d d d ai  CM  8  CO  a> CN CO  CO CO  CO  jr  CO  CN  r-  CM  — i  CO  o CO  3  O c o  15  Q od od od od od od od od o od od o« d  CN CM  o  CN  CN  i  o  I  o  1  o o o o o o o o o o o O o o d d d d d d d d d d d d d d  in  1  o  1!  in  o CO 8 8 8 8 8 8  8o  m  o o o O o o o d d d d d d d  0 01  °>  o  o  o  CO  0)  CD  8o  CM  LD  CN  CN  c  Figure B.19  Table B.20: Percentage M&I Imported, %  c  o  13  J  CO  CO  o s  in  o  CO  CO  o 8  ro  >-  or  O  t;  LU  H  0  a. E o3 C  or  1  i-  oc  w  13  <  a  o  o  o  o  o  o  o  d d d d d d d d d d d d  CO  in  3  0  c  1 o o o CO Q od d d d d o3 CM c  Table B.19: Percentage M&I Desalinated, %  15  192  CO CO  CO  CD  CD  3 £8 5  Lri  d  CO  r-'  CD  CD CO  CO  OJ  3  O  i 3  o o o o O o o o o o o o o o d d d d d d d d d d d d d d  o  ro 2  IT)  CO CD  8 CO  $ en  oo 8 o en oCN o o o 5 o CN CM  CM  CM  CN  CN  oCO  CN  CN  IT)  o  o  en CO o o CN  1 8o CM  CN  oin o  CN  CN  m  ra  3  0> or  E I  o3  00  5  o  Q o3  0  i  1 3 CO  3  o  oa DI  •2 c  01 0CO 0) JD  CN CO 01  d co  a E  O CO  c  o  ent inat  o3  <  t  1 O  I  i-  a  co  ent port  k  Q oa  t |  0  "D c 3  s o  g  3 CJ  oii  CO  LO O  o  193  o o  LO CN  CM  m  •c ,| IE  La  I co I CO  cp  I  CM  CO < N CN  O  cd CN  >• a a 3  co  in  CD  CN  °3 CM CO .4!  ° CN  CM CD  9>  c  CD  o  LU a  •o 0 £  E  a  E  <  °-  3  1 ?  u  s is a. ?  H  I1?12  C/)|  M  6  I® n i  Q  .. o  Ue  co  i3  cu fc  01  ra 0) >-  194  co  in CD  O o CM  88  8 CO co  2  Ig  loa  5  8  M  o  LO CM  8  g  O  CO  O  8" 3 o  0  1  CO CD  co  8'  LO  co  LO CO  LO  00  o o  CN CN  ro h-  8 co  CO  ro co  cr  CT)  35CT)  oil 01  81  O 2 1—  a a  o  CO  5  LO CO O)  195  LO 01 Ol  a  8  8  to CO  o  LO O CN  CD  3>  CD LU  a E  t— <  OC  i •e $ o  CM  CD  s CM CD <u  in co  8  0  O  CD  CO CD  1  °l  f ol  3  3 O  in  196  CO CO  8  CO  E o  CO  c  CO CO CO  5  o o CN  CN  UOI Realloc  To o o o LO «? °?  O o o o o o o o o o o LO CO CO CO cd oo co CO CO CO CO O) oo oo Cp O) CO Cp 1 1 i <? °? °p 1 • 9  o o  8  CO CT>  o o o o o o o o o o o  P  p  LO CO CO «? °? 1  CN CN  t  >-  co  5-  •  •  4  •  i  o o o °?  o o o o o o o o o o o O LO CO «? «?  1  O  197  o o o p o o o o o o o o o LO CO «? °9  LO o LO 0 h j CO CO CO  LO CO  8 1 CO  1  -143 -143 -143 -143 -143  «?  o  -143 -143  O  -137  o  CN CN i i  2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050  Year  Curre  Cui rent  ro w cu Q oa  -143 -143 -143 -143 -143  r-  (-  -143 -143  or  o o "? <?' «9  -137  <  a E  oa O Currei  LU  1-  •c  inal ion  o  CD  P  CD  LU  H  | 03  CD  < i  or o  i o  o  CD ro Cr  ro N  II  CD °?  3  Q °?  CM  in  o GO  8o CM  '1  Rl  CO CD  2 CD  o  8 3 §  5 CO  fj ro N c ro E E < co CD  S> XI  198  I  3  in  in  in  CO  oo  CO  3 3  DI  CD  Ia  CN  CN  CO  CT>  "E  1 3  o 5  Q_ 0-  8  c  oa  CD  co CD  I  3 ro E E <  0  Ol  01  Ol  I LOLO  cd  8 8  -O  ro h-  o  8  CN  c  m  g B  o o o d o i i •  8 8 8  "ro  cu or  CN CO CO  8 3  d  i  3 i •  •  $ 3i 3 3  3 3  a  E O O o CN oa o 8 8 8 a c OJ  CO LO LO LO LO LO LO LO LO LO LO LO CD CD CD CO CO CO LO LO L 0 LO LO  8 8  8 8 8 8  t 3  CD CD > <  2 E  o c  ,g  ro c roo  o o CN CO LO c u d d Q oi "tf CO 01 Q o o o o CO LO I oa • f i c CO  LO LO LO L 0 LO LO LO LO LO LO <D CO CD d d d d d d CD LO in LO LO LO LO LO LO LO LO  t  i  1 1  1  1  •  t 3  o CD  N c ro E E <  o o o 3  o  d o  d o  •  •  d o  •  CN CD CO 01  o  1  CO 1  LO o LO o LO r ~ CO CO Ol Ol Ol Ol Ol 0 1 Ol  199  d  r-d  01  d  oi  0)  oi oi oi oi ai  CN CN CN CN CN CN CN CN CN i i • i 1 I • •  1  1  LO o  o o  o  CN CN CN  LO O LO o LO CN CN CO CO  8  O O o o  CN CN CN CN CN  O  L0  o CN  8  8 8  8  a  o o  S  CN  o  a  3  CO  CN CO  8  8  o  CN  CO  LO  CO  ID  in Ol  200  in  CO  APPENDIX C  Selected Run Output for the Jordan Valley System Operation Sector  201  Figure C.1: Variation of K A C Divertible Flows with Yarmouk River Dams Storage Capacities  KAC Flows (MCM/Yr)  Mukhibah storage, (MCM)  TABLE C. 1: OUTPUT MCM/ YEAR MUKHIBAH, MCM 0 100 150 175  • 190-195  Wehdah Storage, (MCM)  250  DIVERTED FLOWS INTO THE KAC CURRENT SYRIAN ABSTRACTIONS W E H D A H S T O R A G E , MCM 0 150 200 192 187 189 189 181 183 188 180 182 188 179 181  • 185-190 • 180-185  NO WEIR 225 189 182 181 181  250 189 183 182 182  Figure C.2: Variation of K A C Divertible Flows with Yarmouk River Dams Storage Capacities  KAC Flows (MCM/Yr)  • 250-255  Mukhibah storage, (MCM)  TABLE C. 2: OUTPUT MCM/ YEAR MUKHIBAH, MCM 0 100 150 175  Wehdah Storage, (MCM) DIVERTED FLOWS INTO THE KAC CURRENT SYRIAN ABSTRACTIONS WEHDAH STORAGE, MCM 0 150 200 225 253 244 248 247 246 235 239 238 244 235 238 238 243 234 237 237  202  • 245-250 • 240-245 • 235-240  WITH WEIR 250 248 240 239 238  Figure C.3: Variation of Flows D/S of KAC with Yarmouk River Dams Storage Capacities  Flow D/S KAC, MCM/Yr  • 190-200  Mukhibah storage, (MCM)  TABLE C. 3: OUTPUT MCM/ YEAR MUKHIBAH, MCM 0 100 150 175  • 180-190  Wehdah Storage, (MCM)  225 250  • 170-180 • 160-170  FLOWS DOWN STREAM OF KAC INTAKE CURRENT SYRIAN ABSTRACTIONS WEHDAH STORAGE, MCM 0 150 200 225 192 173 168 168 166 190 170 166 189 169 165 165 189 169 165 164  NO WEIR 250 166 164 163 162  Figure C.4: Variation of Flows D/S of KAC with Yarmouk River Dams Storage Capacities  Flow D/S KAC, MCM/Yr  150 Mukhibah storage, (MCM)  TABLE C. 4: OUTPUT MCM/ YEAR MUKHIBAH, MCM 0 100 150 175  200 ~ 225 250  Wehdah Storage, (MCM)  FLOWS DOWN STREAM OF KAC INTAKE CURRENT SYRIAN ABSTRACTIONS WEHDAH STORAGE, MCM 225 150 200 0 109 115 110 135 109 110 134 115 108 114 109 133 108 109 133 114  203  • 130-140 • 120-130 • 110-120 • 100-110  W/WEIR 250 107 107 106 106  TABLE C.5: OUTPUT MCM/ YEAR MUKHIBAH, MCM 0 100 150 175  DEIR ALLA AMMAN MUNICIPAL DIVERSION CURRENT SYRIAN ABSTRACTIONS NO WEIR WEHDAH STORAGE, MCM 200 250 0 150 225 18.84 19.05 19.01 19.17 19.39 18.25 17.65 18.08 17.95 18.03 18.12 17.99 18.12 18.25 17.57 18.12 17.44 17.95 17.87 17.99  Figure C.6: Variation of Deir Alia Municipal Flows with Yarmouk Dams Storage Capacities  Deir Alia Flows, (MCM/Yr) Mukhibah storage, (MCM)  TABLE C.6: CONDITIONS: MCM/ YEAR MUKHIBAH, MCM 0 100 150 175  175 250  225 Wehdah Storage, (MCM)  • • • • •  26-27 26-26 25-26 25-25 24-25  DEIR ALLA AMMAN MUNICIPAL DIVERSION W WEIR CURRENT SYRIAN ABSTRACTIONS WEHDAH STORAGE, MCM 250 225 150 200 0 26.52 26.19 26.23 25.43 25.55 25.64 25.43 25.55 25.38 24.79 25.3 25.68 25.43 24.79 25.09 25.55 25.38 25.26 24.58 25.09  204  Figure C.7: Variation of Flows D/S of KAC with Yarmouk River Storage Capacities 120  110  100  75  90  150 Mukhibah storage, (MCM)  TABLE C. 7: CONDITIONS: MCM/ YEAR MUKHIBAH 0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 225 250  Flow D/S KAC, MCM/Yr  225 250  200  150  • 110-120  Wehdah Storage, (MCM)  FLOWS DOWN STREAM O F KAC INTAKE 30% RETURN FLOW FUTURE SYRIAN ABSTR. WEHDAH STORAGE, MCM 175 125 100 150 25 50 75 0 102 102 98 114 107 119 117 116 102 98 114 107 102 119 117 116 102 97 114 107 102 119 116 116 102 97 106 102 116 115 113 118 97 111 102 102 114 106 118 116 101 101 96 106 115 113 110 118 100 96 105 100 117 115 113 110 100 96 105 100 117 114 112 110 100 100 95 111 109 105 114 116 95 100 100 108 104 113 111 116 95 104 99 99 109 116 112 111  205  • 100-110 • 90-100  WITH WEIR 200 97 97 97 96 96 96 95 95 94 94 94  225 97 97 97 97 97 96 95 95 94 94 94  250 94 94 94 93 93 93 92 92 92 91 91  Figure C.8: Variation of Flows D/S of K A C with Dams Storage & Percent Return Flows  Flow D/S KAC, MCM/Yr 30%  Percent Return Flows, %  200 250  Wehdah & Mukhibah Storage, (MCM)  • • • • •  110-120 100-110 90-100 80-90 70-80  TABLE C. 8: FLOWS DOWN STREAM OF KAC INTAKE CONDITIONS: FUTURE SYRIAN ABSTRACTIONS WITH WEIR MCM/ YEAR WEHDAH & MUKHIBAH STORAGE, MCM RETURN FLOW 0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 225 250 30% 119 117 116 113 106 101 100 96 94 94 91 15% 116 114 113 108 101 95 88 85 83 82 81 77 0% 112 110 109 102 94 90 81 75 73 72  Figure C.9: Variation of K A C Divertible Flows with Dams Storage & Percent Return Flows  Flows to KAC, MCM/Yr 30%  Percent Return Flows, %  TABLE C. 9: CONDITIONS: MCM/ YEAR RETURN FLOW 30% 15% 0%  200 250  Wehdah & Mukhibah Storage, (MCM)  DIVERTED FLOWS INTO THE KAC FUTURE SYRIAN ABSTRACTIONS WEHDAH & MUKHIBAH 100 125 50 75 0 25 222.9 214 219 241.1 220.7 214.4 194.3 198.4 191.7 185.7 187.8 211.9 172.4 176.4 161.2 165.1 185.1 166  206  • • • • • •  235-250 220-235 205-220 190-205 175-190 160-175  WITH WEIR S T O R A G E , MCM 225 250 175 200 150 224 225.4 222.2 225.4 225.7 206 207 206.7 206.5 204.4 190.5 184.5 188.4 189.3 190.4  Figure C.10: Variation of Deir Alia Flows with Dams Storage & Percent Return Flows  Flow to Deir Alia, MCM/Yr 30% • 23-25 • 21-23 • 19-21 Percent Return Flows, %  Wehdah & Mukhibah Storage, (MCM)  TABLE C. 10: DEIR ALLA AMMAN MUNICIPAL DIVERSION CONDITIONS: FUTURE SYRIAN ABSTRACTIONS MCM/ YEAR WEHDAH & MUKHIBAH STORAGE, MCM 175 200 RETURN FLOW 0 25 50 75 100 125 150 30% 24 24 25 23 22 22 23 23 23 15% 20 19 19 19 20 20 21 22 22 17 17 16 17 17 18 19 19 20 0%  • 17-19 • 15-17  WITH WEIR 225 24 22 20  250 24 22 20  Figure C.11: Variation of Wehdah Municipal with Wehdah Storage & Percent Return Flows  Wehdah Municipal Flows, MCM/Yr  • 60-80  Wehdah Storage, (MCM)  • 40-60 Percent Return Flows, %  TABLE C. 11: WEHDAH MUNICIPAL DIVERSION FUTURE SYRIAN ABSTRACTIONS CONDITIONS: WEHDAH & MUKHIBAH STORAGE, MCM MCM/ YEAR 150 175 200 125 75 100 25 50 RETURN FLOW 0 51 57 41 32 38 28 32 0 5 Cur. Sy. Abst. 44 50 37 38 32 32 4 27 30% 0 39 46 34 36 32 31 3 27 0 15% 34 35 31 26 27 15 24 1 0 0  207  • 20-40 • 0-20  WITH WEIR 225 59 52 49 36  250 72 60 49 36  

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