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Patriotic sex : fertility, fear and power Togman, Richard 2016

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i  PATRIOTIC SEX: FERTILITY, FEAR AND POWER by Richard Togman  A DISSERTATION SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF  THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF  DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY in THE FACULTY OF GRADUATE AND POSTDOCTORAL STUDIES (Political Science)  THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA (Vancouver)  August 2016 ©Richard Togman 2016   ii  Abstract Decades of research has shown the relative futility of government efforts to manipulate the fertility rate of their citizens and that there is a distinct lack of correlation between population growth and indicators of state power. However, over 145 states currently have ongoing and costly efforts to shape the reproductive behavior of individuals to achieve an idealized rate of aggregate population growth. These states differ culturally, economically, and politically, but their population control policies have ever only followed four models. Why do states pursue population policies that have robust histories of failure and invest scarce resources in programs which show little promise of advancing state interests? Why do states that differ on many objective metrics maintain population policies that are broadly similar and have proven historically ineffective? In this dissertation I find that states do not react to the objective facts of their situations but instead respond to an enduring set of ideas that are generated at the international level.  I demonstrate this by tracing the evolution of thinking on population growth and how competing models of the effects of population have driven state policies. Through the use case studies, including France, Germany, Russia, India and China, I illustrate how these competing ideas motivate state intervention in the private reproductive lives of millions of individuals.  iii  Preface This dissertation is original, unpublished, independent work by the author, Richard Togman. Image 8.1 reprinted with permission of Harvard University Press. Image 10.2 and 10.3 reprinted with permission of YouTube.com Image 10.4 reprinted with permission of Oxford University Press.  iv  Table of Contents  Abstract ......................................................................................................................................................... ii Preface ......................................................................................................................................................... iii Table of Contents ......................................................................................................................................... iv List of Images ................................................................................................................................................ v 1 Sex and the State ............................................................................................................................. 1 2 The Narrative of Truth ................................................................................................................... 45 3 Cannon Fodder for the Crown (Europe 1600-1798) ...................................................................... 71 4 To Breed or Not to Breed, That is the Question (Europe 1798-1870) ........................................... 88 5 Populate or Perish (Europe 1870-1945) ...................................................................................... 123 6 How I Learned to Love the Bomb: The West Looks South (The West 1945-1980) ...................... 185 7 Challenging Hegemony, Competing for Truth ............................................................................. 240 8 Enemy at the Gates: The Threat From Within (Developing World 1800-1980) .......................... 275 9 Socialism in the Bedroom: The Iron Womb Behind the Iron Curtain (Eastern Europe 1945-1991) .................................................................................................................................................................. 336 10 Babies Will Save Us: Back to the Bedroom (Developed World 1980-present) ............................ 376 11 Babies Hurt Development, Except When We’re Modern (Developing World 1980-present) ..... 417 12 Conclusion .................................................................................................................................... 451 Bibliography .............................................................................................................................................. 481     v  List of Images Image 1.1 Population Levels of Analysis and Sites of Potential Intervention  ............................................ 15 Image 1.2 Where Policy Happens  .............................................................................................................. 16 Image 1.3 Simplified Flow Chart of Mercantilist Pro Natalist Discourse  ................................................... 23 Image 1.4 Simplified Flow Chart of Malthusian Anti Natalist Discourse  ................................................... 24 Image 1.5 Simplified Flow Chart of Modernization Anti Natalist Discourse  .............................................. 26 Image 1.6 Simplified Flow Chart of Neo-Mercantilist Pro Natalist Discourse  ........................................... 28 Image 1.7 Mercantilist and Alternates  ....................................................................................................... 30 Image 1.8 Malthusian and Alternates  ........................................................................................................ 30 Image 1.9 Modernization and Alternates  .................................................................................................. 30 Image 1.10 Neo-Mercantilist and Alternates  ............................................................................................. 31 Image 2.1 Historical Dominance of Natalist Discourses ............................................................................. 59 Image 2.2 OECD Rate of Economic Growth and Total Fertility Rate  .......................................................... 65 Image 3.1 Mercantilist Pro Natalism  .......................................................................................................... 84 Image 4.1 Malthusian and Alternates  ...................................................................................................... 106 Image 4.2 Marxist Natalism  ..................................................................................................................... 107 Image 6.1 Demographic Transition Theory Model  .................................................................................. 193 Image 6.2 Stages of Development and Population Growth  .................................................................... 208 Image 8.1 High vs Low Effort Natalist Programs  ...................................................................................... 334 Image 9.1 Simplified Flow Chart of Neo-Mercantilist Pro Natalist Discourse  ......................................... 350 Image 10.1 States with Pro Natalist Policy  .............................................................................................. 400 Image 10.2 Singapore’s National Night Scene 1 ....................................................................................... 406 Image 10.3 Singapore’s National Night Scene 2 ....................................................................................... 406 Image 10.4 German and Japanese TFR  .................................................................................................... 409 Image 12.1 Historical Dominance of Natalist Discourses  ........................................................................ 462  1  Chapter 1 – Sex and the State “Clever men rightly count on the ignorance of people, they understand the infallible effect produced by a group of seven figures, an effect that can be greatly augmented by spelling out the word ‘million’. I see…sensible people, who as soon as they come upon numbers in a book of political philosophy, feel all ready to believe as if by a kind of magic.” - Marquis de Condorcet1  There is a four in five chance that your leaders are currently using money, propaganda and even coercion to try to manipulate your decision to have a child.2 Over 85% of governments worldwide encompassing over 85% of humanity itself and a wide diversity of political structures, economic systems, cultural heritages, ethnic identities and religious beliefs, are expending vast amounts of resources to instill in you a patriotic duty of procreation.3 They may be trying to convince you to have more children or to produce fewer offspring but rest assured that over 170 countries are using the money and manpower at their disposal to induce you into having the number of children that suits their interests.4 Perhaps more troubling than the government creeping into your bedroom and trying to control your fertile powers is the fact that natalist policy is unlikely to work.  Natalist policy is defined as intentional government action directed at influencing the fertility rate of a given population for the purpose of affecting the quantity of individuals. 5  For the purposes of this study, natalism will be referring to attempts at manipulation of the gross numbers of a population through fertility control, excluding issues of the quality of that                                                           1 Blum 2002, 112. 2 UN 2013. Calculated as a total world population ratio.  3 UN 2013 4 Ibid. 5 The terms pro or anti natalism refer to the intended direction of change in the fertility rate. Thus, pro natalism reflects a desire to increase the fertility rate and total rate of population growth while anti natalism reflects a desire to reduce the fertility rate and lower the total rate of population growth.  2  population. The history of eugenics, racism and other factors that sought to alter the qualities of a population (or the quantity of a certain subset of the population) will not be the focus of this work as they have been studied extensively elsewhere. This study will seek to understand the ways in which governments have sought to control the population from a gross quantitative sense, as in manipulating total, aggregate numbers. While the history of racism, eugenics and other ideas are intimately intertwined with parts of the history of natalism and population control, they will not be examined in depth here as it is not within the scope of my efforts in this work. By isolating and excluding some ideological factors (racism, etc) from the study, unique and novel insights will be brought forward which have been otherwise neglected or went unobserved.  For example, over the past three hundred years, there have been countless attempts by governments of all types to control fertility rates yet very few cases can claim to have achieved the desired results. Moreover, there is a vast academic literature demonstrating the difficulty and potential futility in attempting to control the fertility of a population.6 As well, even if one could effectively manipulate fertility, there is significant doubt as to its benefits and a much stronger understanding of its potential costs, both in terms of resources and human welfare.7 However, despite over a hundred years of relative failure and innumerable studies questioning the viability and utility of natalist policy, the majority of governments worldwide continue to have and develop new policies designed to manipulate and control the fertility of their                                                           6 Dumont and Dexcroix 1988; Chesnais 1987; Buttner and Lutz 1990; Finch and Bradshaw 2003; Gauthier and Hatzius 1997; Castles 2003; Schultz 1994; Pritchett 1994; Mwaikambo et al 2011 7 Demeny 2003; Va de Kaa 2006; Gauthier 1996; Kligman 1992; Ashraf, Weil and Wilde 2013; Gauthier and Hatzius 1997; McNicoll 1986; Bloom, Canning and Sevilla 2001; Gauthier 1996; Connelly 2008 3  populations with the intent of affecting the natural rate of population growth.8 What can account for the ongoing choices of world leaders at multiple levels of governance to spend vast sums of money and manpower to instill a sexual duty to the state and on policies designed to manipulate fertility that have a relatively robust record of failure? To answer this question, this dissertation will explain how population emerged as an object of governance in modern history, how interventions at this new site of life changed over time and place and what kinds of continuities one can observe in the history of population controls. By developing a comprehensive understanding of how we have constructed the meaning of population and tracing the realization of those narratives in policy this dissertation will explain why government has sought to control the reproductive powers of its citizens and why the state has so often failed to effectively do so. Why Care? – The Importance of the Mystery Inside the Enigma of Natalism   This question is both critical and pressing as government efforts to control the very reproductive power of the population while doing so in an ineffective and inefficient manner represents a unique and puzzling phenomenon. While many societies throughout history have sought to police individual sexual behavior, state efforts to influence fertility rates for the purpose of controlling population growth at the aggregate level are distinctive and relatively new. Efforts to influence the decisions of individuals as to how many children to have represents an intrusion into the private and personal choices of the people, which one may                                                           8 Natural population growth refers to the change in population caused by the number of total births minus the number of total deaths – excluding factors such as emigration and immigration. Here I exclude discussions about the death rate as I assume that the death rate is not subject to extensive debate. No government is actively trying to increase the death rate of its citizens as a whole and there is no debate around the desirability of extending life as it relates to population growth. 4  have come to expect of authoritarian or totalitarian governments but not of liberal democracies. Examples of natalist policy range from Communist China to democratic India, South Korea to post-Soviet Russia, modern France to theocratic Iran. Regime type, economic structure, ideology, geography, religion and ethnicity cannot predict or explain the quest to control population growth nor can they clarify why such varied states with such divergent settings and institutions typically fail to effectively and efficiently control the fertility of their people.9  The decision to have a child has been broadly reframed as the public-private divide has been radically ruptured on this issue. Childbearing has morphed from a purely private affair to one of government concern meriting the active and occasionally violent intervention of the state into the lives and daily practices of billions of individuals. An example of natalism’s most virulent form can be seen in China where the ‘One Child’ policy allowed for forced late term abortions for women who had exceeded their child-bearing quota.10 However China is not alone as the spectrum of interference includes Singapore, which is currently employing extensive propaganda efforts to convince its citizens of their duty to breed for the country,11 and France, which has developed an elaborate system of financial incentives (or bribes) to push its people to procreate for the good of the nation.12 Natalist policy should be of great concern to those who worry about the expansion of government into the individual lives of everyday                                                           9 An exception may be China where a harsh and massively coercive program has lowered fertility beyond the norm. However the efficiency of the government in enforcing the decrease in fertility may be questioned as enormous sums of money, political capital and coercive power have been expended to deliver results which are hotly contested. 10 Nie, 1999. 11 Lee, Alvarez and Palen 1991; Yap 2003. 12 Pailhe, Rossier and Toulemon 2008. 5  people. Moreover, natalist policy tends to be focused on women and the discourse on natality has often been crafted to concentrate on female fertility. The role of women in society has been put in the spotlight (as mothers, workers, citizens, breeders) as have their very bodies as policy has repeatedly sought to exert control over women’s reproductive power (e.g. in issues of abortion, contraception, etc.). The freedom and autonomy of women stands at the heart of natality and is an issue of great concern. At the state level, issues of population growth have been directly linked with practices of economic growth and development. The cornerstone of many developing countries economic platforms contain strong efforts to exert state control over how many children a family will produce.13 Patterns of fertility and childbearing have been linked to modernization programs, efforts to build capital and savings, infrastructure investment and other critical features of the development process, including the emancipation of women from the home for wage earning potentials in the workplace.14 Government control over fertility has been seen as an essential precursor to development as without reducing fertility rates, development, modernization and progress itself is often believed to be near impossible.  In developed economies, fertility patterns and population growth have been associated with economic growth, often through the lens of public finance issues. The ‘graying’ of the workforce through the gradual ageing of populations due to declining fertility has been identified as a prospective risk to the welfare state as foundational financial initiatives, such as public pensions, public health care and other government projects, are potentially threatened                                                           13 Jones and Leete 2002. 14 Notestein 1953; Coale and Hoover 1958; Davis 1951. 6  due to the future shortfall of labourers as compared with retired people. Many of the great social projects of the 20th century are under pressure due to funding models which were based on models of population which assumed high fertility and which are being confronted with a low fertility future. Thus, many governments have tried to incentivize childbearing in an effort to confront the long term challenges of modern public finance.15 In addition, fears have blossomed in the past few decades that a shrinking youth cohort among developed nations will lead to stagnating societies as the vigour, energy and vitality of youth will be sucked from the nation and lead to a process of long term decline as the dynamism of the national economy has been described as being dependent on the quantity of youthful innovators and entrepreneurs who drive economic progress forward.16 Additionally, fertility issues have been linked to questions of national identity among many western states as countries with low fertility are often host to substantial immigrant populations, whose fertility levels are typically higher than the local population. The issue of fertility has thus been linked to the ethno-cultural make-up of the state as some worry that higher fertility patterns among immigrant communities will change the ‘essence’ of the nation, as increasing proportions of the population no longer conform to the ethnic, religious or cultural patterns of the pre-existing communities. Thus, the very identity of the nation-state has been linked to questions of fertility and population growth. Fertility has a long history of being strongly associated with military power as the size of the armed forces and the potential of the government to mobilize manpower for war efforts                                                           15 Caldwell, Caldwell and McDonald 2002. 16 Krause 2006. 7  have been tied to the size of the overall population. Thus, higher fertility rates have been interpreted as leading to a larger base for recruits and a more powerful military through force of numbers. Relatedly, the potency of national economies has often been associated with the size and growth of the population. More babies mean more consumers, more producers and a larger GDP which is a significant contributor to both national power and the ability of the state to fund the military. Therefore, international power competition and the struggle for security in the anarchic global environment have been deeply connected to the power of national fertility.17 At the global level, concerns have emerged over the sustainability of population growth in the face of physical/biological constraints. The potential limit of food production to keep pace with the increasing number of mouths to feed has worried humanitarians for centuries.18 More recently, the ability of the planet to absorb an escalating amount of waste products, such as pollution, garbage and other toxic byproducts of human civilization, is being questioned as is the ability of the planet to continually supply increasing populations with the raw materials necessary for improving living standards.19 Moreover, concerns have been raised as to the ethics of uncontrolled human reproduction in light of deforestation, habitat destruction, species extinctions and the growing pressures we are placing on the remaining life that exists on earth. Consequent to the myriad of ways in which fertility and population growth have been linked to a wide diversity of threats, problems and challenges, an extremely wide variety of                                                           17 Kramer 2012. 18 Malthus 1998. 19 Hardin 1968. 8  groups and organizations have adopted or espoused views on the issue. Natalist policy has emerged at the provincial, national and international level (e.g. Quebec, Germany, World Bank) among disparate ethnic groups (e.g. Mohawk, Tibetan) and NGOs (e.g. Sierra Club, International Planned Parenthood). Policy has been adopted on every continent, has found adherents in every type of religion, cultural background and political system and has been promoted by representatives of all the major political ideologies. Therefore, a failure to properly understand natalist policy, the reasons for its adoption and its general failure leaves a major gap in our comprehension of the world as political views on fertility, childbearing and population growth have deep impacts on both the depth and breadth of human experience.  Issues of fertility and population are understood to have an impact at the individual, national and global scales and affect areas as critical and varying as economic growth, development, the power of the state, the environment, identity issues and women’s health. The answer to the question of why governments are continually trying to manipulate the fertility of their people despite a century long record of relative failure and copious amounts of evidence demonstrating the questionable benefits and known and costly nature of such control, both in terms of resources and human welfare, is relevant to fields spanning the social sciences such as political science, economics, sociology, women’s studies and environmental studies. How to Understand Natalism: The ‘How’ Answers Why  To understand natalist policy and the reasons for its failure one must first comprehend natalism as a discourse. Natalism operates as a contextual frame which contains within it a 9  series of embedded meanings and ways of perceiving threats, framing problems and arriving at solutions. In a way, natalist thought contains certain worldviews that help narrate and structure our perceptions of reality. All natalist discourses contain an internal logic which seeks to structure patterns of thought and helps lead one through a process which begins with identifying certain exogenous problems as problems of population and which ends with natalist policy. By linking and framing certain perceived threats as issues of population, the natalist discourse contributes to the realization of natalist policy as how one frames a threat/problem goes a long way to determining the solutions one creates. Additionally, natalism typically seeks to exclude competing discourses from challenging its supremacy as the source of truth on the matter at hand. Natalist discourses, while adaptable, flexible and evolving, seek to monopolize the mental terrain so as to render their explanatory power as the truth. While at times a discourse may hybridize with pre-existing discourses to heighten its appeal, they are, in a sense, intolerant of competing discourses as alternate or competing frames are essentially threats to its realization in policy and acknowledgement as truth.20   At the heart of all natalist thought lies the concept of ‘the population’. The ‘population’ is fundamentally an abstraction as while it ultimately rests on a reality of real individuals, the processes by which individuals are aggregated, combined, agglomerated and collectivized results in a reification of the whole at the expense of the individual. The macro understanding ends up definitively obfuscating the micro to such a degree that the effective links between the                                                           20 There are two key questions which must be answered to understanding the consequences of natalism as a discourse. The first relates to why the adoption of a natalist discourse most often leads to failure when translated into policy. The second relates to the motivation for state adoption of a natalist discourse. One must understand the content of the discourses and how it shapes the meaning of population to understand why states adopt a particular discourse in a particular time period. The general theory for the first issue will be discussed below with the theoretical explanation for the second question to follow.  10  macro and micro are shattered which results in a dissonance that undermines the potential for action and effective policy. This is explained further below as well as throughout the dissertation (with special focus in chapters three and four) as the exploration of thinking on matters of population is unfolded. A population may be defined in any number of ways (e.g. nationally, globally, ethnically, geographically, etc). Let us take the population of France as an example. The population of France consists of millions of individuals; some old, some young, some rich, some poor, some Catholic, some secular, etc. The original concept of the population rests on a micro-reality of these millions of individuals. Each of these individuals makes certain decisions about their reproductive powers and fertility choices; some may desire to have a large family of seven children, some will decide to abstain from procreation all together while some will choose to have two children. The choices of these millions of individuals will be predicated on the multitude of factors that influence one to have a child; religious ideals, economic pressures, social norms, financial incentives, family obligations, etc. These are, in general, what can be described as the micro-foundations of fertility rates and natural population growth. These micro-foundations of fertility and population growth are systematically ignored in the discourses of natalism and population, as will be shown throughout this dissertation. When constructing the macro concept of the ‘population’, aggregations, summations, averages and other statistical tools are utilized and relied upon to develop the basic foundations of the concept. Individuals and their micro-practices are effectively obscured and ignored to arrive at a generalizable framework encompassing the entirety of the collective. Thus, when discussing 11  the ‘population’ of France, one speaks of average fertility rates, rates of total population growth, average age of marriage and first birth, etc. These metrics are not in of themselves problematic. However, through the discursive constructs employed by natalist thought, ‘the population’ begins to take on a life of its own and becomes effectively reified as an independent entity. The ‘population’ becomes an object of governance and the subject of policy prescriptions separate from the micro-realities that originally created it. It is this dissonance between macro-conceptualizations of ‘the population’ and the actual micro-practices and behaviours of individuals that leads to consistently ineffective policy. The very aggregations that make the population legible21 to those in power becomes its undoing as the focus becomes the abstracted macro-level itself at the expense of the micro-level of individuals. Governments and other powerful political actors have tried to manipulate and change the object of the population while ignoring the actual micro terrain upon which policy needs to be targeted. The population becomes the target of policy instead of individuals. Individuals and their choices are systematically ignored, or worse, deemed inconsequential, as the driving logic of the discourses of natalism contain a fatal flaw in their basic structures of thought. Major actors (such as states), guided by the discourse, never inquire as to why individuals choose to have or not to have children nor do they build a model based on an in depth micro analysis of individuals, couples or households. Instead, the population is perceived as a top-down affair as the population is identified by the discourse as the source of threat or problem that is in need of address and thus policy seeks to act on the object of the population itself (or on the fertility rate itself) as an abstraction. Individuals are not typically conceived of as rational, calculating                                                           21 I use the term legible here in a similar sense to that of James Scott’s use in Seeing Like A State (1998) 12  beings who make reasonable and legitimate choices given the social constraints they perceive themselves to be facing. They are viewed by those in power through the prism of ‘the masses’ or ‘the population’ that must be reshaped, controlled, coerced and bred anew to conform to the types of behaviour expected of them to achieve state aims.  Consequently, policy is most often mis-targeted, inefficient, wasteful and ultimately ineffective as individuals often resist government programs. Instances of policy success can be occasionally seen in more extreme cases, such as China, where the degree of state power and coercion put in place was sufficient to compel the population to bend to the will of the state regardless of individual motivations and practices. As well, policy success can occur when government happens to provide a service or good that is already in demand by the local population. Birth control and reproductive control more generally are often sought after in many developing countries which contain much unmet demand for such services. For example, the United Nations Population Fund estimates that half of the world’s 175 million pregnancies a year are unwanted, representing a huge unmet demand for fertility control.22 Accordingly, it has been typically easier to induce a decline in fertility rate than an increase. These instances have historically occurred more by chance than by plan as the micro-levels of decision making are almost never studied or consulted as the discourses frame and structure the issues at the macro-level and policy makers seek to operate at and on the abstraction of the population. Below are two images. Image 1.1 consists of a visualization of the various levels at which one could conceptualize the population and where the state may intervene. Image 1.2 offers a simplified example of how policy has been targeted at the macro level and how it might                                                           22 Bloom, Canning and Sevilla 2001, 52. 13  otherwise be targeted at the micro level. This is not meant to be comprehensive or exhaustive but merely illustrative of different ways one could approach the same agenda. For example, in Image 1.1, the population is subdivided four different ways: the total population, individuals of child bearing age, individuals of child bearing age who are likely contemplating having children in the near future, and individuals of child bearing age who are likely contemplating having children in the near future  and are likely susceptible to policy. These divisions are important as how one understands the population influences policy. If one targets the population in total, policy is likely to be poorly targeted and wasteful while if one descends to more micro analytical frames then policy can be more effectively directed and have much higher chances for success and ‘bang for your buck’.  Similarly, image 1.2 shows how one could potentially delve into further micro analysis as policy can be varied and targeted to different groups who are likely susceptible to different influences and decision making factors. Generalized policy programs targeted at all persons of childbearing age may work on some but will be radically unsuited to others. Policy will be very inefficient in terms of the effectiveness of dollars spent translating into more births. However if one subdivides the population into relevant groups based on local and contextual knowledge of existing fertility practices and factors likely to influence fertility decisions then one can design far more targeted and effective campaigns. For example, in the developing world wealthy urban individuals already tend to have low fertility and are unlikely to be influenced in their fertility decisions by relatively small financial incentives for sterilization. As well, they tend to be well educated and not in need of basic information on birth control techniques. Programs directed to these groups will likely be effectively purposeless. However, the rural poor may very 14  well be incentivized to engage in sterilization with what to them represents a relatively large financial incentive from the government. As well, often lacking a basic education, birth control and sexual education programs carried out by locally appropriate individuals may b