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Three types of wartime sexual violence : recruitement and retention of armed combatants in civil war Luedke, Alicia Elaine 2014

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	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?THREE TYPES OF WARTIME SEXUAL VIOLENCE: RECRUITMENT AND RETENTION OF ARMED COMBATANTS IN CIVIL WAR  by   Alicia Elaine Luedke    B.A. ? Hons., McGill University, 2012    A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF  THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF    MASTER OF ARTS   in   THE FACULTY OF GRADUATE AND POSTDOCTORAL STUDIES  (Political Science)     The University of British Columbia   (Vancouver)     January 2014    ? Alicia Elaine Luedke, 2014 	 ?	 ? ii	 ?Abstract  Most mainstream studies of violence in civil war have focused almost exclusively on lethal forms of violence against civilians, emphasizing the dilemmas of initiating and sustaining an insurgency from the perspective of an armed group?s leadership. Consequently, little research has been conducted to account for what kinds of insurgent organizations will engage in what ?types? of wartime sexual violence. By ?type? of wartime sexual violence, this paper refers to its purposes as: i.) a reward for foot soldiers and tool of opportunism; ii.) a weapon of war for threatening and intimidating a population; and iii.) a mechanism for facilitating in-group cohesion and discipline. It argues that by extending and elaborating on the logics used to explain lethal violence against civilians, i.e. the recruitment and retention of armed combatants in civil war, analyses can predict the ?type? of sexual violence a given armed group is likely to engage in during combat. Focusing on a typology of sexual violence constructed around armed group objectives not only offers a more detailed analytical account of insurgent behavior, but also advances the already limited study of sexual violence beyond subsets, such as rape or gang rape. After presenting this typology, the paper offers a theoretical framework and preliminary set of hypotheses with respect to what kinds of armed groups will commit which of these three types of wartime sexual violence. It concludes with a discussion of mixed method micro-comparative research designs and geographic information systems (GIS) as possible ways for researchers to distinguish between different outcomes of sexual violence in armed conflict.      	 ?	 ? iii	 ?Preface This Thesis is the original, unpublished, intellectual work of the author, Alicia Elaine Luedke.                          	 ?	 ? iv	 ?Table of Contents   Abstract??????????????????????????????????..ii Preface??????????????????????????????????...iii Table of Contents??????????????????????????????..iv List of Tables????????????????????????????????..v Acknowledgements?????????????????????????????...vi 1. Introduction????????????????????????????????1 2. Rationale & Definitions???????????????????????.................5 3. The Industrial Organization of Armed Groups?????????????????..8 4. Armed Groups & Repertoires of Sexual Violence????????????????11 5. Three Types of Wartime Sexual Violence???????????????.................15 6. Theoretical Framework & Hypotheses????????????????..................18 7. Observable Implications & Methodological Approaches?????????????26 8. Conclusions?????????????????????????????...........35 Notes???????????????????????????????????..37 Bibliography????????????????????????????????.42           	 ?	 ? v	 ?List of Tables  Table 1 Initial Conditions & Recruitment????????????????????.20 Table 2 Initial Conditions & Sexual Violence Outcomes??????????????.20 Table 3 Initial Conditions, Recruitment Profiles & Sexual Violence Outcomes?????24                       	 ?	 ? vi	 ?Acknowledgements  I extend many thanks to the faculty, staff and graduate students in the Department of Political Science at the University of British Columbia (UBC), who have helped me advance my interest in civil conflict and violence against civilians. I owe special gratitude to Dr. Arjun Chowdhury whose assistance enabled me to think more critically about issues of sexual violence and armed group behavior in civil war.   I also thank Dr. Erin Baines and Dr. Brian Job for elaborating my understandings of the gendered dimensions of armed conflict and urging me to think outside of the immediate ?black box? of civil war in my own research.           1. Introduction Archives of wartime sexual violence have been situated in histories of reticence and suppression. Long dismissed as the inevitable acts of renegade soldiers in civil war, rape and other related offenses have often been reduced to the unavoidable consequences of contemporary armed conflict.1  While horrific accounts of forced impregnation, gang rape and sexual slavery in Bosnia, Sierra Leone and Liberia proliferated across transnational policy networks in the 1990?s and 2000?s; the issue has been comparatively absent in mainstream social science research. In fact, until recently the study of wartime sexual violence has been relegated to the status of an exclusively ?feminist? or ?women?s studies? issue.2 However, with the now notorious formalization of the June 2008 United Nations Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) 1820, recognizing sexual violence as a strategy of war linked to the maintenance of international peace and security,3 the topic has finally emerged from its ?blind spot? in social scientific research. Despite increasing studies of violence in civil war in the past half-decade, gender analyses of armed conflict have been few and far between in disciplines like Political Science.4 Instead, studies of violence in civil war have focused almost entirely on lethal forms of violence against civilians, emphasizing the recruitment profiles of armed groups. Coupled with the so-called ?collective action problem? of insurgent mobilization, wherein private selective incentives are extended to overcome the opportunity costs of combat, the presence or absence of material endowments was generally understood to influence the magnitude and targeting of civilians in armed conflict.5 Now, however, a growing number of studies have materialized highlighting the role of sexualized acts of violence as one way in which armed group leaders override the private preferences that characterize participation in civil war.6 Elisabeth Wood, Dara Kay Cohen and others have started to concentrate on the functional objectives of rape and gang rape, examining 	 ?	 ? 2	 ?these acts as deliberate strategies for facilitating bonding between members of an insurgent organization.      While such insights have irrefutably furthered our already limited comprehension of wartime sexual violence, they have directed our focus towards simplistic dichotomies, such as the absence or presence of sexual violence within and across civil wars. As such, seldom little is known about what types of armed groups will engage in which characteristic ?types? of wartime sexual violence. By ?type? of sexual violence, I mean to refer to its purpose as:  i.) a function of opportunism and private gain in combat situations, ii.) a weapon of war for threatening and intimidating an enemy population, or iii.) a mechanism for fostering internal discipline and in-group cohesion. Furthermore, by ?sexual violence? I do not merely mean rape or gang rape. Employing a more inclusive definition, I conceptualize sexual violence as an extensive classification of offenses, encompassing rape; gang rape; sexual torture and mutilation; sexual slavery; enforced prostitution and marriage; and imposed sterilization and pregnancy.7  Accordingly, I argue that by looking at the dilemmas of recruitment and retention of members in an armed group, analyses can predict the ?type? of sexual violence that combatants are likely to exercise in conflict. Armed group leaders face a mix of initial conditions, including pecuniary and non-pecuniary resources.8 These initial conditions effect not only whether armed group leaders attract low or high committed individuals as someone like Jeremy Weinstein would posit,9 but they also effect whether they are able to motivate voluntary participation or have to employ other forms of recruitment, including abduction and press-ganging. Together with the difficulties of sustaining membership, or what Scott Gates terms the ?compatibility 	 ?	 ? 3	 ?problem,?10 the endogenous characteristics of insurgent organizations can forecast what ?type? of sexual violence armed groups will engage in.  Organizations with low ideational resources will recruit on the basis of private selective incentives, or forcibly through abduction and press-ganging, which is contingent on their access to material goods. Groups with generous economic endowments, but low levels of social endowments will employ sexual violence on an opportunistic basis. This is because material rich movements attract low committed individuals, or ?consumers,?11 interested in only the short-term rewards that insurgency provides. From this perspective, armed group leaders are reluctant or simply powerless to rein in on the behavior of individual combatants, leading to high levels of indiscipline, and hence, random and undirected acts of sexualized violence. On the other hand, groups comprised of low ideational resources that do not have the same access to financial capital to motivate participation, will rely on forcible methods of recruitment. When rebels are abducted and compelled into engaging in combat, commanders will attempt to instill social cohesion amongst members? vis-?-vis the use of sexual violence. Since participation is coerced as opposed to voluntary, commanders are faced with the dilemma of preventing defection amongst a collection of adverse individuals. In order to do this they will use the forced commission of sexual violence (usually carried out in or close to the area of recruitment) to raise the specter of familial and communal rejection and precipitate modes of attachment to the armed group.12  Alternatively, organizations with strong social unities, liked shared cultural or ideological goals can entice voluntary participation by activating group grievances. Since these groups can evoke well-established norms and networks for both recruiting and retaining armed combatants, 	 ?	 ? 4	 ?they can ex ante preserve internal discipline and prevent defection.13 Irrespective of their access to material wealth then, armed groups with high ideational resources will utilize sexual violence selectively, as a weapon of war against a cultural, ethnic or ideological ?other.?  It must be noted from the outset that what I establish here is an agenda for future research and probabilistic framework for predicting what types of armed groups will engage in which of the three ?types? of wartime sexual violence delineated above. As Stathis Kalyvas notes, conflicts ?are not binary?but complex and ambiguous processes that foster an apparently massive, though variable mix of identities and actions.?14 The initial conditions, recruitment profiles and dilemmas of retention facing armed group leaders are by no means static and are often subject to considerable spatial and temporal change. My intention is to analyze these features of armed groups in relation to the type of sexual violence that they are likely to exercise. Accordingly, this paper will proceed by first, assessing the theoretical contributions on the logic of violence against non-combatants in civil war, followed by an analysis of existing frameworks on wartime sexual violence. Building on these insights, I will then detail a model for investigating what types of armed groups will engage in what types of sexual violence. Rather than attempt to test these hypotheses against unreliable empirical data, I will outline the observable implications of the theory, concluding with a discussion on geographic information systems (GIS) as a potential method for distinguishing between different outcomes of sexual violence in civil conflict.      	 ?	 ? 5	 ?2. Rationale & Definitions  Prior to introducing the theoretical and conceptual insights that inform this study, it is worth prefacing with a discussion on the value of studying wartime sexual violence as a distinct category of violence in civil war. Sexual violence is an act of domination grounded in a complex web of cultural preconceptions regarding expected gender roles in society, effecting not only women and girls, but also men and boys.15 In the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), for instance, soldiers are often cited as taking advantage of the disproportionate power relations that exist between the sexes, enacting their masculine superiority over a ?feminized? ?other? through rape and other related offenses.16 For both victims and perpetrators of sexual violence, there are also enduring psychosocial and physical impacts that persist well into the post-conflict period. For example, children who have been abducted into armed groups are often forced to commit egregious sexual abuses against their own families and communities.17 The subsequent social exclusion that these child combatants and their victims face once the war is over, present a substantial obstacle to reintegration.18 Accountability for these acts is equally as critical, as impunity for sexual violence committed in the context of armed conflict has the propensity to reinforce the acceptability of sexualized forms of violence post-war.     As mentioned in the introduction, despite increasing studies on lethal violence against non-combatants in civil war, gender analyses of such violence have been few and far between.19 Re-orienting studies beyond generalized categories is not only important to understanding the gendered dimensions of armed conflict, but also to analytically differentiating amongst the various manifestations of violence in civil war.20 Focusing on lethal violence alone does not provide a full account of armed group behavior. In fact, if there is anything that newer theories of 	 ?	 ? 6	 ?wartime sexual violence have indicated, it is that sexual violence serves distinct purposes in civil war, precipitating modes of attachment, acting as a material incentive for participation and demoralizing and humiliating an adversarial population in a way that cannot be accomplished by lethal violence alone.   In broaching this topic researchers should therefore expand studies beyond limited subsets, such as rape or gang rape.21 Unlike rape, which can be defined as the coerced penetration of the vagina, anus or mouth by the penis or another object, sexual violence encompasses a much broader classification of offenses.22 Disaggregating sexual violence into rape; gang rape, sexual torture and mutilation; sexual slavery; enforced prostitution and marriage; and imposed sterilization and pregnancy, achieves a more holistic picture of the span of sexual abuses in civil war. Crucially, it also accommodates the possibility of sexualized aggression against other understudied segments of the population, such as men and boys. While sexual violence itself has typically been defined as a ?female? issue, recent research23 has shown that men and boys often endure rape, sexual mutilation and ritual castration in places of detention.24 Moreover, emphasizing different dimensions of the broader category of sexual violence25 offers new opportunities for theorizing about the causes of sexual violence and comparing the ways in which different acts are committed differently.26   Finally, although high levels of rape and other related offenses are reported in a majority of the world?s conflict-affected states,27 I am not looking at variation in sexual violence at the conflict level as is routinely done in statistical analyses of civil war. Rather, I am concentrating on variation at the level of armed groups. As a recent report from the United States Institute of Peace (USIP) noted, the causes of sexual violence are most likely to be identified by 	 ?	 ? 7	 ?investigating insurgent organizations as the appropriate unit of analysis.28 I am approaching this issue through the perspective of the principle, or armed group leader. Whereas members of an insurgent organization or its agents might engage in hit and run survival tactics, commanders have longer-term goals and are the ones who assume the burdens of recruiting participants and generating control and discipline.29 This means that armed group leaders are also the ones who define opportunities, shape incentive structures and enforce norms surrounding the perpetration or prohibition of rape and other related offenses, making them a relevant focus for the study of wartime sexual violence.30                 	 ?	 ? 8	 ?3. The Industrial Organization of Armed Groups  As referenced in the introduction of this paper, previous studies of violence in civil war focused almost exclusively on lethal forms of violence, looking at the organizational imperatives of armed groups and some variation of the collective action problem.31 Along these lines, explanations for violence in civil war have followed two main logics, that of greed and grievance. The former corresponds to the break down of state institutions and the subsequent privatization of violence, which is haphazard and driven by material gain.32 And the latter refers to ex ante group loyalties and beliefs whereby a political foe is transformed into a military adversary by virtue of group enmities.33 That being said, ??[insurgency] is full time commitment and it is dangerous.?34 While collective action like organized violence occurs to secure some sort of public benefit, such as rule of law, democracy or economic prosperity, the costs associated with securing that benefit are born privately by the individuals party to a particular conflict.35   Consequently, rebel leaders are considered to face significant obstacles with respect to initiating and sustaining an insurgency.36 In order to overcome these difficulties commanders will extend either private selective incentives, such as loot, or ideational rewards tied to group grievances and goals.37 Jeremy Weinstein, for example, examines the factors that determine membership in a given organization, arguing that divergences in how groups exercise violence is a consequence of variation in the mix of material and social resources facing armed group leaders.38 Commanders have to acquire capital, coordinate logistics, conscript soldiers and generate information on the location of their adversaries.39 To execute these functions they will draw on either ideational endowments or economic endowments.40 The combination of these 	 ?	 ? 9	 ?initial conditions is seen to invariably constrain a leaders recruitment strategy and alter the costs and benefits of participating in insurgency.41   Resource endowed leaders will offer material incentives to override the costs of participation. Because of these pecuniary motivations, however, resource rich movements attract low committed individuals, what Weinstein refers to as ?consumers,? interested in only the short-term rewards that insurgency provides.42 The resultant particularistic interests and group heterogeneity mean that these groups lack the requisite internal mechanisms to discipline and control combatant behavior, leading to indiscriminate abuses against the civilian populace.43 In contrast, armed group leaders with few material resources who draw on purely social endowments will attract high committed individuals, or ?investors,? devoted to the cause of the organization and likely to make costly investments today in return for assurances of future rewards tomorrow.44 Dissimilar to ?opportunistic movements,? these ?activist movements? can preserve internal discipline by calling on established norms and networks.45  Together with their reliance on local populations, armed groups with shared communal aspirations that organize into relatively homogenous units can set in place control mechanisms and hierarchical command structures, enabling them to utilize violence on a selective basis.46     Nevertheless, considering the exceptionally costly nature of insurgency, there is a high incentive to defect. As Scott Gates notes, armed group leaders not only have to secure participation, but they also have to sustain their membership.47 Material rich movements, like those mentioned here, will rely on pecuniary rewards distributed from rent seeking activities or looting.48 On the other hand, ideational groups will attach retention to grievances, depending on non-pecuniary rewards for ?fighting the good fight.?49 Such groups, Gates says, already have the 	 ?	 ? 10	 ??solidary? connections that come from having a strong sense of identity vis-?-vis the rest of the population and can easily retain membership ceteris paribus.50 Even so, participation in civil war is not always voluntary. Attempting to induce compliance amongst members ?who did not want to be there in the first place? therefore presents an interesting dilemma for armed group leaders.51 In such instances, violence will likely materialize as an instrument of control.52 Christopher Blattman and Bernd Beber, for example, show how the forced commission of violence against a recruits? family or community broke down their psychological defenses and bound them to the organization by raising the specter of familial and communal rejection.53 In so doing, commanders were able to reduce an abductees? real and perceived outside options, making defection a costly alternative to remaining in the organization.54   The application of these frameworks to wartime sexual violence is seemingly uncomplicated, but it only partially explains two of its roles: as a function of opportunism in combat situations or as an instrument for threatening and intimidating a population, ordinarily an out-group. Once you move beyond viewing violence as a generalized category, you can begin to distinguish how its various forms can be employed to overcome the private interests that characterize ?opportunistic movements.? This is where inquiries into wartime sexual violence and armed group behavior have proven valuable. Dara Kay Cohen, for example, highlights how certain acts of sexualized violence, particularly gang rape, can be exercised to override individual preferences and instigate bonds between members of an armed group with low ideational resources.55    	 ?	 ? 11	 ?4. Armed Groups & Repertoires of Sexual Violence  Before, theories of wartime sexual violence were parsed into the same prevailing perceptions that informed the interpretive frames of civil war, most notably the so-called ?greed? model. Grounded in Hobbessian inspirations, emphasizing the ontology of violence characterized by the break down of state authority,56 scholars attributed the perceivably arbitrary motivations in a war of ?all against all? to the frequency of sexual abuse. In the same way that the greed paradigm saw generalized violence as a consequence of its privatized and haphazard natures,57 sexual violence was surmised to be the unfortunate result of the chaos and disorder of civil war. Expressions of sexual aggression were therefore alleged to be related to the break down of the regulatory mechanisms of the state and the normative values attached to patriarchal practices. War, from this perspective, provided men with an unprecedented opportunity to unleash their inherently bellicose libidos on female populations. Fighting far from the social controls of their villages or neighborhoods, civilian women were viewed as warranted spoils of war.58 Such arguments, however, relied heavily on assertions related to militarized masculinities. Joshua Goldstein, for instance, holds that in order to persuade men to fight and endure the hardships of war, societies have to turn their soldiers into warriors.59 And a near universal way in which this was accomplished was to establish sharp divisions between the sexes.60 Men were, thus, conditioned to represent domination of the ?other? in a very gendered way, culminating in colossal levels of sexual opportunism amongst male combatants.61 While the militarized masculinities argument is an unquestionably meaningful tool for looking at the socialization of male fighters for particular modes of violence, wartime sexual violence becomes nothing more than the inevitable product of men?s expected gender roles.  	 ?	 ? 12	 ?In other conflicts sexual violence it is highly targeted against persons of a particular ethnic or ideological affiliation.62 Dissimilar to opportunistic accounts of rape, which are often acted out as a desirable event (albeit immersed in the physical domination of the gendered ?other?)63, targeted sexual violence carries with it a terror objective. The most notorious use of this kind of sexual aggression against civilians occurs along the same logic of ethnic cleansing, wherein rape and other related offenses are used for forced displacement and the destruction of the social fabric of an enemy population.64 This is particularly accurate in places where communities have deeply held social conventions about the chastity of women.65 Here, concepts of virtue and family honor and the need to protect women?s purity make sexual violence an effective way to destroy and humiliate an entire community. These explanations, however, are entangled in the singular notion that women?s secondary position in society facilitates discriminate acts of sexual violence. As Elisabeth Wood notes, the observed variation in sexual violence extends beyond its opportunistic or strategic manifestations.66  In order to account for this variation, scholars have started to investigate the internal characteristics of armed groups. Amelia Hoover Green, for example, contends that armed group leaders confront what she calls a ?commanders dilemma? wherein they have to recruit and train combatants to use violence in a mechanized manner, while also retaining operational control.67 She argues that groups that implement political education programs and encourage regulated behavior are able to overcome the problems presented by attracting opportunistic individuals to their movements.68 Echoing Hoover Green, Wood argues that whether group leaders can enforce controlled violence will be contingent on the strength of the group?s hierarchy and whether information about infractions can flow up the chain of command.69  Military commanders seek to 	 ?	 ? 13	 ?constrain excessive levels of sexual violence exercised by their recruits, not least because they fear reprisal.70 Logically, if group leaders regard sexual violence as working against their interests and if the hierarchy is powerful enough to enforce its diktats, sexual violence will be infrequent.71 This is of course adjoined with the caveat that if a strong organization considers sexual violence to be in its best interests, it will be effectively implemented.72       Yet, the emphasis on command structures alone directs focus towards the absence or presence of rape and other related offenses, as opposed to the specific conditions under which its different forms will be perpetrated. As Dara Kay Cohen points out, in the same way that the mechanism of recruitment is empirically associated with lethal violence, it also affects the propensity for combatants to engage in sexual violence.73 Indeed, sexual violence is costly and most armed group leaders would rather not participate in counterproductive activities and behaviors, but rape and other related offenses are also an ?unusually successful? mechanism for encouraging social cohesion.74 As mentioned in reference to Jeremy Weinstein, commanders with low social endowments end up recruiting low-committed individuals. One way in which armed group leaders can overcome this commitment problem is to facilitate bonding amongst an otherwise culturally and ideologically incoherent collection of combatants. To do this, there are various psychological processes that can be employed, including the socialization of an armed group?s membership through the habituation of sexual violence.75     For Cohen, this idea is best conceived of as the interactive process through which members of an armed faction establish their position in relation to one another. Rape, especially gang rape, she says, ?enables armed groups with forcibly recruited conscripts to create bonds of loyalty and esteem from initial circumstances of fear and mistrust.?76 This is similar to the way 	 ?	 ? 14	 ?in which Sophie Kramer conceptualizes the use of forced marriage in Northern Uganda. The Lord?s Resistance Army (LRA) abducted children, coercing them into the role of rebel commander or soldier.77 In an environment of few material resources and a lack of popular support, wives were distributed as compensation and status markers for combatants in the absence of tangible rewards.78  Forced marriage, in particular, was used to generate the appearance of a family, creating networks of interdependency much like those fostered by gang rape.79                 	 ?	 ? 15	 ?5. Three Types of Wartime Sexual Violence Markedly, existing frameworks for wartime sexual violence have coalesced around three distinct functions, or what I refer to here as ?types? ? opportunism; weapon of war; and ?combat socialization.? The first is predicated on the pervasive assumption that the breakdown of institutional and social order in civil war engenders an unprecedented opportunity for rape and other related offenses. While far from a universal occurrence in armed conflict, the indiscriminate rape of men, women and children as some sort of ?war booty? was subsumed to be the product of the mayhem and turmoil of civil war. Combatant men were viewed as taking advantage of pre-existing unequal power relations between the sexes, enacting their masculine superiority over a ?feminine? ?other.?80 Beneath these accounts, as Maria Eriksson Bazz and Maria Stern argue, is the conclusion that men?s sexuality is the driving force, unleashed in a climate of warring where all institutional and societal regulations are suspended.81  From this perspective, however, sexual violence is saturated in inevitability, casting ?all men as potential rapists? waiting for the requisite chances to ?rape and pillage.?82 As mentioned in the above section, commanders will also endorse sexual aggression when they believe that it will be effective in the pursuit of their overall objectives. This is the case with armed groups that use sexual violence as weapon of war to disrupt the social fabric of an out-group. When widely employed where sexual violence is recognized to be a gross violation of familial and communal honor, the humiliation of male and female community members can be an effective tactic for forcible compliance and the demoralization of an adversary?s support-base.83 Ethnic or ideological wars, in particular, are considered to be favorable environments for this ?type? of sexual violence.84 In such conflicts, an underpinning of ethnic, cultural or ideological ?otherness? 	 ?	 ? 16	 ?facilitates rape and other related offenses,85 which serve a strategic purpose, vanquishing the enemy population, curtailing movement and instilling terror.86    Yet, as Dara Kay Cohen and Sophie Kramer have demonstrated, practices of wartime sexual violence for military socialization mark another discrete way in which acts, such as gang rape and forced marriage can facilitate control and coherence in an armed unit. Although groups with high social cohesion can construct strong hierarchical structures, and hence, rein over the actions of individual combatants, groups with low social cohesion cannot. Where these groups are comprised of forcibly recruited conscripts, commanders will try to precipitate modes of attachment to the insurgent organization through some sort of immersion experience like the habituation of sexual violence. This empowers armed groups by fostering both concrete and subjective ties between members, while also raising the specter of household and village rejection through the forced commission of sexual abuse. 87 That being said, aside from the lack of internal cohesion increasing the prospects of gang rape or forced marriage to instigate bonds between members of an armed group, little is known about what types of armed groups will engage in which of these three categories of wartime sexual violence. By separating studies to include these three ?types,? analyses can begin to better distinguish between the underlying mechanisms that generate high or low prevalence of each one.88 Concentrating on binaries such as opportunistic or strategic violence, or its absence or presence, as Elisabeth Wood89 notes, fails to explain the widely observed variation within and across armed conflicts. Although scholarship should understand what results in the non-occurrence of sexual violence, she says, they should also understand what makes it so widespread.90 Focusing on a typology constructed around the objectives of armed groups, I 	 ?	 ? 17	 ?cannot only offer a more detailed analytical account of armed group behavior, but I can also extend the study of wartime sexual violence beyond limited subsets, such as rape and gang rape.                       	 ?	 ? 18	 ?6. Theoretical Framework & Hypotheses  With that, I posit that by looking at the initial conditions facing armed group leaders, i.e. the presence of ideational and material resources and the method of recruitment, studies can come closer to understanding how the internal characteristics of armed groups influence the likelihoods of particular ?types? of wartime sexual violence. Integrating the insights of Jeremy Weinstein and Dara Kay Cohen it becomes clear that the presence of social and economic endowments affect the pool of combatants. In other words, whether commanders can attract high or low committed individuals. However, the initial conditions also affect the method of recruitment available to a commander in the first place. Armed group leaders that have access to natural resources or third party patronage can entice voluntary participation by offering short-term tangible rewards.91 Conversely, irrespective of the resource base at their disposal, commanders that can draw on shared ethnic, cultural or ideological affinities can encourage elective participation by drawing on ideational resources, mobilizing symbols and myths to persuade people to ?fight the good fight.?92    As Christopher Blattman and Bernd Beber argue, rebel leaders are ?minimally rational.?93  That is, they are calculating, self interested and maximizing.94 Hence, even if there are high levels of material resources, armed group leaders that can draw on social endowments would rather rely on shared group grievances and goals than squander material goods that will be necessary to vanquishing an enemy populace. It is, however, feasible that participation in organizations with high ideational resources, particularly in the absence of material resources, might not be ?voluntary? in the strictest sense. For example, it is well-known that there are usually sanctioning norms that exist between members of a homogenous group, or what Daniel 	 ?	 ? 19	 ?Posner et al. refer to as ?co-ethnics.?95 It is therefore conceivable that in such situations, participation could be the product of the frequency with which people of the same group interact, as well as the ease of detecting a fellow ?co-ethnic?96 and compelling them to join the movement.     Still, this is not the same as forcible recruitment through abduction and press-ganging in groups with low social endowments. Both Cohen and Blattman and Beber show how groups with low ideational resources suffer from problems of internal cohesion and discipline. Because groups with shared ethnic, cultural or ideological affinities can draw on sanctioning norms to convince a ?co-ethnic? to ?fight the good fight? forcible recruitment is not likely to materialize in these groups. Abduction and press-ganging offer a number of disadvantages, not least trying to create an armed group out of a collection of individuals who did not want to be there in the first place.97 This makes it a sub-optimal method of recruitment for commanders to engage in,98 meaning that it will most plausibly emerge under circumstances of low ideational and material resources. Along these lines, it would hold that armed groups with high social endowments will be able to motivate some form of voluntary participation on the basis of shared unities, regardless of their economic endowments.  In contrast, commanders with low ideational resources will only be able to incentivize non-compulsory engagement if they can offer short-term tangible rewards. Where this is not viable due to a lack of access to natural resources or external patronage, armed group leaders will rely on a strategy of forced recruitment through abduction or press-ganging.  The interaction between initial conditions and recruitment is illustrated below in Table 1.    	 ?	 ? 20	 ? Table 1. Initial Conditions & Recruitment  High Ideational  Low Ideational  High Material  Volunteers  Volunteers  Low Material  Volunteers  Forced Recruitment   Table 2. Initial Conditions & Sexual Violence Outcomes   High Ideational  Low Ideational  High Material Weapon of War  Opportunism or Combat Socialization  Low Material Weapon of War  Opportunism or Combat Socialization   H1: High Material Resources and Low Ideational Resources ? Voluntary Participation? Opportunistic Sexual violence  As Cohen asserts, the recruitment mechanism affects the propensity of combatants to commit sexualized acts of violence.99 Investigating initial conditions alone fails to fully distinguish between what types of armed groups will engage in what types of sexual violence. Looking at Table 2 it is evident that the presence of ideational and material resources only predicts when rape and other offenses will be targeted as a weapon of war. Though the existence of economic endowments makes it possible for armed group leaders with low social endowments to recruit volunteers on the basis of private selective incentives, these volunteers exhibit little commitment to the long-term goals of the organization.100 The ensuing pool of recruits will be both heterogeneous in terms of its identity make-up and comprised of personal motivations.101 As a result, there are few internal mechanisms that armed group leaders can exercise to preserve internal discipline and control.102 Without shared ethnic, cultural or ideological affinities armed group leaders are unable to override individual preferences, culminating in a complete lack of command on the ground.103 Driven by private gain and/or gratification/revenge, combatants are 	 ?	 ? 21	 ?likely to take advantage of the climate of opportunity that stems from the absence of regulated behavior, indiscriminately targeting civilian men, women and children.  H2: Low Material Resources and Low Ideational Resources ? Forced Recruitment ?  ?Combat Socialization?  Where groups are plagued with both low ideational and material resources, commanders will depend on forcible recruitment, such as abduction or press-ganging. The resultant pool of conscripts will not only be heterogeneous in terms of identification, but they will also lack any impetus for engaging in combat; which is coupled with a high incentive to defect. Even though groups with low social endowments and high economic endowments have low-committed individuals, armed group leaders can depend on pecuniary rewards to prevent desertion.104 Similarly, ethnic, cultural or ideological groups will attach retention to group grievances, relying on sanctioning norms or the solidary rewards that come from ?fighting the good fight.?105 However, where individuals have been coerced into participating, armed group leaders need to induce compliance.106 One way in which they will do this is through the forced commission of violence. While this can sometimes taken on lethal forms, as both Cohen and Kramer point out, different acts of sexual violence can serve to precipitate modes of attachment to an armed group, severing a rebel?s ties with his/her home and community life.107 This can occur in costly manifestations of public sexual violence like gang rape, or outside the purview of the ?public? under the immediate scrutiny of the armed group.   H2(a): Low Material Resources and Low Ideational Resources ? Voluntary Participation ? Opportunistic Sexual Violence  A caveat to this must be noted. It is possible that under rare circumstances, armed group leaders facing initial conditions of low ideational and low material resources might be able to 	 ?	 ? 22	 ?entice voluntary participation, leading to a pattern of opportunistic sexual violence. Although the life-span of such an organization would be limited in comparison to those that can draw on economic or social endowments, such groups might emerge to engage in short-run banditry, looting and general degeneracy. Here, the goods accrued from looting and raids can be enough to incentivize certain fighters. Weak insurgent groups that are less capable of providing potential supporters with material benefits are constrained in terms of the recruitment options available to them.108 Still, commanders might be able to encourage a ?rape and pillage? model to persuade the odd few to engage in combat.109 Such instances, however, would be isolated. As Weinstein notes, without a minimal level of material and ideational resources, groups cannot surmount the threshold of rebel organization.110  The looting of civilian homes carries with it significant costs.111 In other words, ?unleashing bandits into the countryside to enrich themselves in exchange for their labor in the movement is a recipe for a quick defeat.?112   H3: High Material Resources and High Ideational Resources ? Volunteers ?  Weapon of War  Armed group leaders that draw on shared group grievances or goals to attract or pressure so-called ?co-ethnics? to join their movement can easily set in place disciplinary mechanisms and command structures to control combatant behavior. As Elisabeth Wood argues, the faculty of armed group leaders to enforce regulated violence will be contingent on the strength of that group?s hierarchy and whether information about infractions can flow up the chain of command.113 Since these groups can draw on non-pecuniary rewards or punishments for both recruitment and retention,114 irrespective of material resources, they will predominantly use sexual violence selectively as a weapon of war against an ethnic, cultural or ideological ?other.? That being said, where there is a presence of high economic endowments the pool of recruits will 	 ?	 ? 23	 ?be both ?investors? and ?consumers.? As a consequence of the mere prospect of financial gain, some individuals might choose to participate for private reasons that are distinct from their shared identity with the group. Accordingly, although the main pattern of sexual violence will be targeted as a weapon of war, it is conceivable that there would be a nominal level of opportunistic sexual violence carried out against both out-groups, as well as ?co-ethnics.?  H4: Low Material Resources and High Ideational Resources ? Volunteers ?  Weapon of War  This is juxtaposed against armed groups who have to draw on purely social endowments due to the paucity of available material resources. The absence of financial capital means that there are few promises of economic gain from participating in the movement. As a result, the pool of recruits will be highly committed, dedicated to the cause of the organization and willing to make costly investments today in assurances for future rewards tomorrow.115 Because of their allegiance to the armed group and its overall goals, combatants will exhibit an exceptional amount of discipline. Furthermore, since these groups usually rest on the logistical and financial support of the surrounding civilian population, they are unlikely to predate against the non-combatants.116 Meaning that when sexual violence is used it will be exceedingly targeted. In fact, unless commanders regard sexual violence to be in their best interests, it is likely that they would constrain rape and other related offenses either to deter reprisal or because they have instituted strong norms against civilian abuse.117           	 ?	 ? 24	 ?Table 3. Initial Conditions, Recruitment Profiles & Outcomes of Sexual violence Ideational Resources Material Resources Recruitment  Sexual Violence ? High ? High ? Low ? Low ? Low ? High ? Low  ? High  ? Low  ? Low  ? Volunteers  ? Volunteers ? Volunteers ? Volunteers  ? Forced ? Weapon/war ? Weapon/war ? Opportunism ? Opportunism  ? Combat socialization    In sum, groups with high material resources and low ideational resources will try to accrue voluntary participants by extending private selective incentives to motivate participation. This occurs where commanders have access to natural resources that are susceptible to looting and extortion and/or support from a third party patron. However, where armed group leaders lack access to such financial capital they will most commonly rely on forcible mechanisms of recruitment, including abduction and press-ganging. In order to preclude the possibility of defection, the forced commission of sexual violence will be utilized to raise the specter of household and village abandonment, engendering dependencies and allegiances (albeit superficial) to the armed group.118 That being said, it is theoretically plausible that commanders facing analogous conditions of low social and economic endowments might be able to attract participants with the prospect of goods attained from banditry, looting and raids. More particularly, armed group leaders might be able to extend a ?rape and pillage? model to persuade the odd few the engage in combat.119   The inverse of these characteristics in an armed group, i.e. high ideational and high material resources will conclude predominantly in discriminate acts of sexual violence, targeted against an out-group. As I have referenced throughout this paper, groups with shared ethnic, cultural or ideological affinities can ex ante generate control by evoking well-established norms 	 ?	 ? 25	 ?and networks. Yet, the presence of economic endowments means that the class of participants will be comprised of both high and low committed individuals. For that reason, it is feasible that there would be a token amount of opportunistic sexual violence by some combatants. In contrast, armed group leaders that have to draw on exclusively ideational resources will attract high committed individuals who are dedicated to the goals of the organization irrespective of the possibility of contiguous benefits.120 These groups will constraint excessive levels of sexual violence in order to dissuade reprisal or cement norms against civilian predation, culminating in infrequent and highly selective acts of rape and other related offenses. The combinations of these predictions are illustrated in Table 3.                	 ?	 ? 26	 ?7. Observable Implications & Methodological Approaches  Rather than investigate the empirical plausibility of these hypotheses, I will detail possible observable implications of the theory and the methods that could be used to procure the necessary evidence at a later date.  Still, it is worth briefly noting the methodological constraints typically encountered in studies of wartime sexual violence. First, there are the more general issues associated with the difficulties of obtaining accurate data on rape and other related offenses in civil war. Acquiring this kind of information necessitates working in extraordinarily volatile conflict and post-conflict environments, marked by the break down of social, economic and physical infrastructure and its attendant affects on individuals and communities.121 In such situations, the fear and stigma that normally inhibit disclosure is magnified by a complete absence of trust.122 Data collection therefore reflects whether victims of sexual violence are amenable or able to report on the abuses carried out against them. This is coupled with the perceived impunity of the perpetrators, which severely obstructs the ability of researchers to interpret the extent of violations occurring in a given conflict.123 Together with the aforementioned destruction of services, household and population-based surveys may be absent and police and health care resources disrupted.124 Meaning that only those with the most severe injuries or best access to facilities seek clinical care.125 All of which is compounded by the fact that the nature of sexual violence leaves little physical evidence, usually occurring only in the form of soft-tissue damage.126   Second, there are the normative and institutional biases that tend to obscure data. Human rights organizations may only have access to certain segments of the population, such as those in urban areas or refugee and internally displaced person (IDP) camps.127 And while this can lead to 	 ?	 ? 27	 ?under-reporting, it can also lead to over-reporting. Take what Maria Baaz and Maria Stern term the ?commercialization of rape,?128 for example. They argue that the presence of INGO?s and NGO?s that have mobilized resources for victims of sexual violence creates the perception that rape is an income-earning/ survival strategy,129 akin to what Mats Utas calls ?victimicy.?130 In addition, as Dara Kay Cohen and Amelia Hoover Green point out, frequently cited figures on wartime rape are often inaccurate.131 This follows from the dilemma of raising awareness on dire conflict situations, while at the same time maintaining credibility as a reliable source of information and transnational advocacy.132  Consequently, the reported variation in sexual violence can reflect the intensity of the domestic and international presence of organizations operating in a particular region. Although commendable for her efforts to create the first cross-national measure of rape across conflicts, for example, even Cohen herself admits that her frequency measure could be the product of ?increased interest rather than increased incidence.?133 This clearly has grave implications for coding. Human rights violations don?t lend themselves to being easily and objectively quantified, especially when survivors and victims have suffered from multiple forms of abuse.134 As a result, coding schemes currently employ a ?one victim, one perpetrator, one abuse? narrative,135 the problems of which are aptly illustrated by Caroline Kennedy-Pipe and Penny Stanley?s analysis of the Bosnian civil war. Some women, they assert, were raped multiple times by different men. For instance, in the case of rape camps women were often held over long periods of time and raped repeatedly.136 By ignoring the frequency of attacks against individuals, they argue, it lowers the total number of occurrences, misrepresenting the prevalence of sexual violence in a given conflict.137   	 ?	 ? 28	 ?These methodological constraints are not insurmountable, however. Rather, they necessitate meticulously executed research designs that aim to maximize leverage138 by triangulating from available empirical data. Considering the limitations of what Stathis Kalyvas calls ?off-the-shelf data sets,?139 as well as the challenges of coding and measuring wartime sexual violence, one of the most promising avenues for future studies is likely some variant of a multi-method micro-comparative research design. Such a strategy would enhance the amplification of the study of rape and other related offenses in conflict by enabling researchers to explore a universe of units within one or a few primary cases.140 This would allow for the careful reconstruction of processes of wartime sexual violence within a given region, community or village, while also permitting the researcher to collect detailed and contextualized data.141 Although the resultant generalizations will have to be issued in a more tentative fashion than those that rely on cross-national comparisons, studying a number of different armed groups within one or a few civil wars could achieve the desired variation on the relevant dimensions of the independent and dependent variables.142 It also meets the more pragmatic considerations, such as time, money, expertise and access.143 If the sole purpose of a research design is to collect as much information as possible to examine the validity of a set of hypotheses,144 being able to triangulate from multiple sources of data with both qualitative and quantitative methods would invariably increase the capacity to distinguish between the three possible outcomes of wartime sexual violence, i.e. opportunism, weapon of war and ?combat socialization.?  In attempting to operationalize these three ?types? I have subdivided possible observable implications of the theoretical framework into frequency, magnitude and targeting, each of which tie back to the spatial distribution of rape and other related offenses. A growing number of 	 ?	 ? 29	 ?studies in the social sciences have begun to employ Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to answer questions about the location and position of human activities.145 For inquiries into wartime sexual violence this would entail relating collected data to the spatial context in which sexual violence occurred. With respect to frequency, or how recurrent rape and other related offenses were, after amassing data on incidence from journalistic accounts, human rights reports and survivor testimony, GIS would be able to map prevalence rates onto the conflict-afflicted region. For instance, atrocities aimed at engendering control and coherence in an armed group are usually carried out in or close to the area of recruitment.146 Demonstrating whether sexual violence was exercised in the vicinity of forcible conscription would therefore be a meaningful tool for discerning this from other possible outcomes of sexual aggression.  Magnitude, on the other hand, calls attention to the intended audience and the number of persons involved in sexualized acts of violence. Although not systematically examined as a potential repercussion of rape and other related offenses in armed conflict, differentiating whether sexual violence occurred in private or public settings is significant to distinguishing between the various purposes of sexual violence in civil war. For example, if women were targeted in their homes or when going about their daily errands like tending to the field it could be inferred that the occurrence of sexual violence was predicated on private motivations, such as personal gain and/or gratification. Alternatively, public acts of sexualized violence could be connected to its objective as a weapon of war for instilling terror or a mechanism for facilitating internal discipline and in-group cohesion. In relation to the former, as Cohen argues, armed groups with low levels of internal unity often turn to group violence to create a coherent fighting unit.147 Gang rape, she says, is a particularly costly form of public violence that can sever a 	 ?	 ? 30	 ?combatant?s ties with his/her family and community life.148 Similarly, when sexual violence is employed as a weapon of war against so-called out-groups it is a calculated decision enacted with the intent of demoralizing an enemy. Thus, it would be expected that this type of sexual violence would also occur in public, or at least in the purview of an audience of family and/or community members. During the Rwanda genocide, for example, the sexual violence carried out against Tutsi women was considered by one human rights report to be ?particularly violent and public,? with open acts of rape, gang rape and sexual mutilation with corrosive acid.149   A potential proxy for the public versus private dichotomy could be whether sexual violence occurred alongside looting. Considering the connections between wartime sexual violence and the personal preferences affiliated with so-called greed-based explanations for rape in war, sexual violence should be high amongst those armed groups that use loot provisions.150 As Elisabeth Wood notes, armed groups that supply or reward themselves by looting civilian homes have greater opportunities for sexual violence than do other organizations.151 During raids or post-combat operations soldiers often take advantage of unequal power relations between the sexes, viewing civilian men, women and children as warranted spoils of war.152 Hence, if rape occurred alongside the plundering of non-combatant goods, such as livestock and food, it could be concluded that sexual violence was not only private, but also opportunistic. By way of illustration, in their study of the DRC, Maria Eriksson Bazz and Maria Stern use combatant interviews and survivor testimony to show how rape ordinarily transpired during raids in the harvesting months or just before major market days.153  By the same token, if sexual violence is occurring privately alongside looting it should not be targeted towards any particular out-group.154 In fact, the targeting should be incredibly 	 ?	 ? 31	 ?random. For instance, in the same interviews with soldiers in the DRC, Bazz and Stern note that it was apparent that there was no explicit reasoning for rape informed by nationalist discourse.155 Rather, as in Liberia and other conflicts, sexual violence tended to be committed against women irrespective of their ideological or ethnic affiliation.156 Since opportunistic rape is usually associated with the privatized and haphazard motivations of individual combatants, it would be fair to reason that the indiscriminate targeting of civilians was an implication of this ?type? of sexual violence. By contrast, if rape and other related offenses are utilized selectively as a weapon of war it should be targeted against persons of particular racial or political origin. During the Bosnian civil war, for example, the so-called ?RAM Plan? of the Serbian army officers mentioned raping Muslim women and children as an ?effective tool in the process of ethnic cleansing.?157 Relating this back to its empirical association with the spatial context of conflict, GIS would have the advantage of plotting indiscriminate and discriminate episodes of sexual violence. For instance, if sexual violence was employed as a weapon of war then it should be geographically concentrated in clearly defined ethnic pockets or in the locale of persons of a certain ideological pedigree. When used opportunistically, incidents of sexual violence should be territorially scattered, emulating an erratic pattern of frequent occurrences of rape and other related offenses. When combined with ?combat socialization? close to the area of forcible recruitment, differentially sized dots or shapes could visually represent the outcomes of sexual violence on a map. Accordingly, when examined in tandem with the spatial context of armed group behavior, the frequency, magnitude and targeting of sexual violence can begin to distinguish between the different ?types? delineated here.  	 ?	 ? 32	 ?On its own, however, GIS would be unable to illustrate the plausibility of the hypotheses presented in the preceding section. Determining the discipline of an armed group would be crucial to specifying whether the initial conditions, i.e. the presence of ideational and material resources and recruitment mechanisms, were having the anticipated effect on the exercise of sexual aggression. This would revolve around the ethnographies, interviews and questionnaires of combatants/ex-combatants in given civil war. Although subject to bias and unreliability, extended local field world would be important to identifying the strength of the armed group hierarchy, the penalties for defection and the individual motivations for joining the movement.  With respect to the latter, commanders that draw on shared group grievances or goals to attract participants can more easily set in place disciplinary mechanisms and command structures to control combatant behavior.158 This is at odds with organizations that have low ideational resources and lack the internal mechanisms to regulate the actions of individual member?s.159 Conferring with soldiers of different ranks then, the strength of the armed group hierarchy should be evident. For example, an officer in the Sri Lankan Armed Forces (SLAF) told one researcher quite poignantly, ?its crazy; its completely crazy. I cannot control my troops. It?s awful up there?they just go wild.?160 Similarly, a soldier in the Congolese Armed Forces (FARDC) remarks, ?It is our leaders?that are bad. They don?t care about us?they are bad and if there is one rotten orange in the bag, it will make all the oranges in the sack rot.?161 While such testaments will never reflect the absolute truth about the rationale for sexual violence, they can shed important light onto the command context in which rape and other related offenses are committed.162  	 ?	 ? 33	 ?In relation to the retention of armed combatants, groups with low social endowments and high economic endowments attract low committed individuals. Even so, armed group leaders can depend on the pecuniary rewards distributed from rent seeking and looting to prevent desertion.163 Ethnic and ideological groups, on the other hand, will attach retention to group grievances, relying on sanctioning norms or the solidary rewards that come from ?fighting the good fight.?164 This stands in stark contrast to organizations that rely on forcible methods of recruitment, such as abduction or press-ganging. Here, captured soldiers will lack any impetus to engage in combat and have a high incentive to defect. It would hold that where there are sanctioning norms amongst a group of ?co-ethnics,? or coerced recruits, there would be some form of punishment for trying to escape the grasp of the armed group. Consequently, interviewed combatants should express that disciplinary or punitive action was taken if they attempted to withdraw from activities. That being said, as Robert MacCoun et al. argue, using the testimonies of military personal to indicate variables like cohesion is limited.165 Making the leap from this sort of evidence to causal claims, they say, scholarship has to demonstrate the representativeness of the sample.166 One way to accomplish this would be through a close-ended questionnaire. Jeremy Weinstein and Macartan Humphreys, for instance, use a cross-section of randomly selected ex-combatants to determine why individuals participated in the Sierra Leonean civil war.167 Asking questions, including whether combatants were punished for defection, what they were punished for and the reasons they joined the movement could signal both the favored recruitment mechanism, as well as the level of discipline in an armed unit. Ultimately, moving retrospectively from the pattern of sexual violence to the internal characteristics of armed groups 	 ?	 ? 34	 ?can discriminate between the various mechanisms leading to one ?type? of sexual violence over another.                     	 ?	 ? 35	 ?8. Conclusions  The forgoing discussion has revealed the need for a more meaningful theoretical framework for evaluating what types of armed groups will engage in which of the three types of wartime sexual violence delineated here. The above is a first step in attempting to move beyond pointing to the simple association between the internal organization of armed groups and the presence and absence of rape or gang rape. Assessing differentiation in the initial conditions and recruitment method is one way of predicting more general patterns of behavior related to use of sexual violence within and even across armed conflicts. Although this study still faces constraints in deriving potential empirical implications of the theory, it has tried to examine how analyses might start to distinguish between possible outcomes of sexual violence. As illustrated by H3 and H4, the wartime sexual conduct of groups with high social endowments will occur along strategic and selective lines irrespective of their economic endowments. Conversely, as noted in Table 2 organizations with low ideational resources will not always engage in one form of sexual violence over another. This would suggest that initial conditions on their own are not sufficient for explaining the widely observed variation of sexual violence in armed conflict. Researchers also need to pay close attention to the recruitment method and profile of the conscript pool. Whereas groups with voluntary participants will likely utilize sexual violence opportunistically, groups with forcibly recruited participants will exercise sexual violence for the purposes of generating in-group cohesion and discipline. This immersion experience through sexual violence simultaneously severs a rebel?s ties with his/her family and community life and precipitates modes of attachment to the armed group. Thus, initial conditions matter more so in terms of whether armed group leaders will have to rely on voluntary or forcible recruitment 	 ?	 ? 36	 ?mechanisms.  Whether or not organizations are comprised of volunteers or abductees then determines whether the group will use sexual violence as a socialization measure or opportunistically for private gain and/or gratification. That being said, it is clear from H2(a) that under rare circumstances commanders might be able to incentivize the odd few to fight by extending a ?rape and pillage? model, leading to an analogous pattern of opportunistic sexual violence.  Moreover, the implications of these hypotheses carry with them important recommendations for policy makers, humanitarian organizations and domestic advocacy groups. Efforts in monitoring and intervention need to re-orient their focus to looking at armed group dynamics.168 It follows that if indiscipline leads to opportunistic sexual violence, better training methods are necessary. In particular, attention should be centered on infusing armed groups with norms of civilian protection and international humanitarian law (IHL), while also having specific prohibitions against sexual violence.169 Similarly, as Elisabeth Wood contends, if groups with high social endowments can interdict sexual violence when it is in their best interest that means that commanders can institutionalize programs that prevent sexual violence, reinforcing the argument that commanders of armed groups should be held accountable for their actions in condoning rape and other related offenses.170 In addition, if most armed group leaders are ?minimally rational? in that they would rather not engage in costly activities and behaviors, raising the costs of sexual violence could be one way to try and alter the conduct of armed groups. Criminal tribunals, for instance, can act as costly forms of deterrence for commanders operating in other conflicts, as can increasing the capacity of local organizations to link incidents of sexual violence to particular armed groups.171 	 ?	 ? 37	 ?Notes 	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?111United Nations, ?Sexual Violence Against Women and Children in Armed Conflict,? Background Document Session II (2008 Parliamentary Hearing at the United Nations, New York, November 20-21 2008).  2Amber Peterman, Dara Cohen, Tia Palermo and Amelia Green. ?Rape Reporting During War: Why the Numbers Don?t Mean What You Think They Do.? Foreign Affairs SNAPSHOT(2011): 1-3.  3 United Nations, ?Sexual Violence Against Women and Children in Armed Conflict? 4Michele L. Leiby, "Wartime Sexual Violence in Guatemala and Peru," International Studies Quarterly 53, no. 2 (2009): 445-468. 5 See, Scott Gates 2002; Stathis Kalyvas and Matthew Kocher 2007, Jeremy Weinstein 2007.  6 Ibid.   7 Megan Bastick, Marin Grimm and Rahel Kunz, Sexual Violence in Armed Conflict (Geneva Center for the Democratic Control of the Armed Forces, 2007).  8 Jeremy Weinstein, Inside Rebellion, (New York: Cambridge University Press, 20076): Chapter 1-2.  9 See, Jeremy Weinstein, Inside Rebellion.  10 See, Scott Gates 2002; Scott Gates and Ragnhild Nordas 2010.  11 Jeremy Weinstein, Inside Rebellion.   12 See, Dara Kay Cohen 2013; Bernd Beber and Christopher Blattman 2013.  13 See, Scott Gates, "Recruitment and Allegiance The Microfoundations of Rebellion," Journal of Conflict Resolution 46, no. 1 (2002): 111-130 14 Stathis Kalyvas, ?The Ontology of Political Violence: Action and Identity in Civil War,? Perspectives on Politics 1(2003): 475-476.  15 Megan Bastick et al., Sexual Violence.  16 Erika Carlsen, "Ra/pe and War in the Democratic Republic of the Congo," Peace Review 21, no. 4 (2009): 474-483. 17 Megan Bastick et al., Sexual Violence.  18 Ibid.  19 Michele Leiby, ?Wartime Sexual.?   20 Ibid.  21 Amber Peterman, Dara Cohen, Tia Palermo and Amelia Green. ?Rape Reporting During War.?  22Elisabeth Wood, ?Sexual Violence During War: Toward an Understanding of Variation,? in Order, Conflict and Violence, Ian Shapiro, Stathis Kalyvas and Tarek Masoud eds. (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2008).  23 See, Charli R. Carpenter, "Recognizing gender-based violence against civilian men and boys in conflict situations," Security Dialogue 37, no. 1 (2006): 83-103  24 Charli R. Carpenter, "Recognizing gender-based violence against civilian men and boys in conflict situations," Security Dialogue 37, no. 1 (2006): 83-103  25 See, Robert Adcock 2001. Emphasizing different dimensions of the broader concept of sexual violence allows for further conceptual and analytical refinements at a later date.  26 Michele Leiby, ?Wartime Sexual Violence.?   27 Dara Kay Cohen, Amelia Hoover Green and Elisabeth Jean Wood. ?Wartime Sexual Violence: Misconceptions, Implications and Ways Forward.? (2013).  28 Ibid.  29 Stathis Kalyvas, ?New and Old Civil Wars: A Valid Distinction?? World Politics 54(2001): 99-118.  30 Dara Kay Cohen et al. ?Misconceptions and Ways Forward.?  31 See, Marcantan Humphreys and Jeremy Weinstein 2006; Marcartan Humphreys and Jeremy Weinstein 2008; Jeremy Weinstein 2005; Jeremy Weinstein 2007; Stathis Kalyvas and Matthew Kocher 2007.  	 ?	 ? 38	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?32Stathis Kalyvas, ?The Ontology of Political Violence,? 2003, 475-476.  33 Ibid.  34 Cited in, Stathis Kalyvas and Matthew Krocher, ?How ?Free? is Free Riding in Civil Wars? Violence, Insurgency and the Collective Action Problem,? World Politics 59(2007): 177-200.  35 Ibid.  36 Ibid.  37 Jeremy Weinstein, Inside Rebellion, Chapter 1-2.  38 Ibid.   39 Ibid.  40 Ibid. 41 Ibid.  42 Ibid.  43 Ibid.  44 Ibid 45 Ibid.  46 Ibid.  47 Scott Gates, "Recruitment and Allegiance The Microfoundations of Rebellion," Journal of Conflict Resolution 46, no. 1 (2002): 111-130. 48 Ibid.  49 Scott Gates and Ranghild Nordas, ?Recruitment and Retention in Rebel Groups,? in APSA 2010 Annual Meeting Paper (2010).  50 Scott Gates, ?Recruitment and Allegiance.? 51 Jens Christopher Andvig and Scott Gates, ?Recruiting Children for Armed Conflict,? in Child Soldiers in the Age of Fractured States (2009): 77-92.  52 Bernd Beber and Christopher Blattman, ?The Logic of Child Soldiering and Coercion,? International Organization 67, no. 1 (2013), 65-104.  53 Ibid.  54 Ibid.  55 Dara Kay Cohen, "Explaining Rape during Civil War: Cross-National Evidence (1980?2009)," American Political Science Review 107, no. 3 (2013): 461-477. 56 Stathis Kalyvas, ?The Ontology of Political Violence.?   57 Ibid.  58 Elisabeth Wood, "Variation in sexual violence during war," Politics & Society 34, no. 3 (2006): 307-342. 59 Joshua S. Goldstein, War and Gender: How Gender Shapes the War System and Vice Versa (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2003). Cited in, Elisabeth Wood, "Armed Groups and Sexual Violence: When is Wartime Rape Rare??  Politics & Society 37, no. 1 (2009): 131-161. 60Ibid.  61 Ibid.  62 Elisabeth Wood, "Variation in sexual violence during war," 2006.  63 Erika Carlsen, ?Ra/pe.?  64 Michele Lieby, ?Wartime Sexual Violence.?  65 Ibid.  66 Elisabeth Wood, ?Variation in Sexual Violence during War,? 2008.   67 Amelia Hoover Green, ?Repertoires of Violence Against Non-Combatants: The Role of Armed Group Institutions and Ideologies,? PhD diss., Yale University, 2011.  68 Ibid.  69 Elisabeth Wood, ?Armed Groups and Sexual Violence,? 2009.  70 Ibid.  71 Ibid.  72 Ibid.  	 ?	 ? 39	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?73 Dara Kay Cohen, ?Explaining Rape.?  74 Dara Kay Cohen, ?Explaining Rape.?   75 Elisabeth Wood, "The social processes of civil war: The wartime transformation of social networks," Annu. Rev. Polit. Sci. 11 (2008): 539-561. 76Dara Kay Cohen, ?Explaining Rape,? 461.  77 Sophie Kramer, "FORCED MARRIAGE AND THE ABSENCE OF GANG RAPE: EXPLAINING SEXUAL VIOLENCE BY THE LORD'S RESISTANCE ARMY IN NORTHERN UGANDA." Politics and Society (2012): 11-49. 78 Ibid.  79 Ibid.  80 Erika Carlsen, ?Ra/pe.?  81 Maria Eriksson Baaz and Maria Stern, ?Making Sense of Violence: Voices of Soldiers in the Congo (DRC),? Journal of Modern African Studies 46(2008): 57-86.  82 Ibid.  83 Ibid.  84 Dara Kay Cohen, ?Explaining Rape.?  85 Jelke Boesten, "Analyzing rape regimes at the interface of war and peace in Peru." International Journal of Transitional Justice 4, no. 1 (2010): 110-129 86 Jocelyn Kelly, ?Rape in War: Motives of Militia in DRC,? Special Report No. 243 (Washington DC: United States Institute for Peace, 2010), 3-4.  87 Dara Kay Cohen, ?Explaining Rape.?   88 Elisabeth Wood, ?Sexual Violence during War,? 2008.  89 Elisabeth Wood, ?Rape is Not Inevitable in War,? Spotlight on Security (2010), 161-163.  90 Ibid.  91 See, Marcantan Humphreys and Jeremy Weinstein 2006; Marcartan Humphreys and Jeremy Weinstein 2008; Jeremy Weinstein 2005; Jeremy Weinstein 2007; Stathis Kalyvas and Matthew Kocher 2007.  92 See, Scott Gates 2002, Scott Gates and Ragnhild Nordas 2010.  93 Bernd Beber and Christopher Blattman, ?The Logic of Child Soldiering,? 2013.   94 Ibid.  95 Daniel Posner and Weinstein, Jeremy M. and Humphreys, Macartan and Habyarimana, James et. Al, Coethnicity: Diversity and the Dilemmas of Collective Action, (New York: Russell Sage Foundation, 2009). 96 Ibid.  97 Jens Christopher Andvig and Scott Gates, ?Recruiting Children,? 2009.   98 Bernd Beber and Christopher Blattman, ?The Logic of Child Soldiering,? 2013.   99 Dara Kay Cohen, ?Explaining Rape.?   100 Jeremy Weinstein, Inside Rebellion.?  101 Ibid.  102 Ibid.  103 Ibid.  104 Scott Gates, ?Recruitment and Allegiance.?   105 Ibid.  106 Jens Christopher Andvig and Scott Gates, ?Recruiting Children.?   107 See, Dara Kay Cohen 2013; Sophie Kramer 2012.  108 Reed M. Wood, "Rebel capability and strategic violence against civilians," Journal of Peace Research 47, no. 5 (2010): 601-614. 109 Ibid.  110 Jeremy Weinstein, "Resources and the information problem in rebel recruitment," Journal of Conflict Resolution 49, no. 4 (2005): 598-624 111 Ibid.  	 ?	 ? 40	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?112 Ibid.  113 Elisabeth Wood, ?Sexual Violence During War.?  114 Scott Gates and Ragnhild Nordas, ?Recruitment and Retention.?  115 Jeremy Weinstein, Inside Rebellion.  116 Ibid.  117 Elisabeth Wood, ?Sexual Violence during War,?2008.  118 Bernd Beber and Christopher Blattman, ?The Logic of Child Soldiering.?  119 Reed Wood, ?Rebel Capability.?  120 Jeremy Weinstein, Inside Rebellion.  121 Megan Bastick et al., Sexual Violence.  122 Ibid.  123 Elisabeth Wood, ?Variation in Sexual Violence during War,? 2008.   124 Ibid.  125 Ibid.  126 Dara Kay Cohen, ?Explaining Rape.?   127 Elisabeth Wood, ?Variation in Sexual Violence during War? 2008.   128 Maria Eriksson Bazz and Maria Stern, "The Complexity of Violence: A critical analysis of sexual violence in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)," (2010). 129 Ibid.   130 Mats Utas, "Victimcy, girlfriending, soldiering: Tactic agency in a young woman's social navigation of the Liberian war zone," Anthropological Quarterly 78, no. 2 (2005): 403-430. 131 Dara Kay Cohen and Amelia Hoover Green, "Dueling incentives Sexual violence in Liberia and the politics of human rights advocacy," Journal of Peace Research 49, no. 3 (2012): 445-458. 132 Ibid. 133 Dara Kay Cohen, ?Explaining Rape.?  134 Michele Leiby, ?Wartime Sexual Violence.?   135 Ibid.  136 Caroline Kennedy-Pipe and Penny Stanley, "Rape in war: Lessons of the Balkan conflicts in the 1990s." The International Journal of Human Rights 4, no. 3-4 (2000): 67-84. 137 Ibid.  138 See, Gary King, Robert O. Keohane, and Sidney Verba, Designing social inquiry: Scientific inference in qualitative research, (New Jersey: Princeton University Press, 1994). 139 Stathis Kalyvas,  The Logic of Violence in Civil War,  (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2006).  140 Ibid.   141 Ibid.  142 Jason Seawright and John Gerring, "Case Selection Techniques in Case Study Research A Menu of Qualitative and Quantitative Options," Political Research Quarterly 61, no. 2 (2008): 294-308. 143 Ibid.  144 Gary King, Robert O. Keohane, and Sidney Verba, Designing social inquiry.  145 Thomas C Ricketts, "Geographic information systems and public health," Annual Review of Public Health 24, no. 1 (2003): 1-6. 146 Stathis Kalyvas, "New and old civil wars," World politics 54, no. 1 (2001): 99-118; Bernd Beber and Christopher Blattman, ?Child Soldiering.?  	 ?	 ? 41	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?	 ?147 Dara Kay Cohen, ?Explaining Rape.?  148 Ibid.  149 Cited in, Inger Skjelsb?k, "The Elephant in the Room," (2010). 150 Elisabeth Wood, ?Sexual Violence during War,? 2008.  151 Ibid.  152 Erika Carlsen, ?Ra/pe.?  153 Maria Eriksson Baaz and Maria Stern, ?Making Sense of Violence.?  154 Elisabeth Wood, ?Sexual Violence during War,? 2008.  155 Maria Eriksson Baaz and Maria Stern, ?Making Sense of Violence.?  156 Ibid.  157 Cited in, Inger Skjelsb?k, "The Elephant in the Room.? 158 Jeremy Weinstein, Inside Rebellion.  159 Ibid.	 ?	 ?160 Elisabeth Wood, ?Armed Groups and Sexual Violence,? 141-161.  161 Jocelyn Kelly, ?Rape in War,? 5-7.  162 Maria Eriksson Bazz and Maria Stern, "The Complexity of Violence.?  163 Scott Gates and Ragnhild Nordas, ?Recruitment and Retention.?  164 Ibid.  165 Robert J. 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