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Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in Indigenous communities in Canada and Guatemala : the… Magzul, Lorenzo 2013

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VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN INDIGENOUS COMMUNITIES IN CANADA AND GUATEMALA: THE ROLE OF SOCIAL CAPITAL  by Lorenzo Magzul B.A., University of Victoria, 1991 B.Sc., Royal Roads University, 1998 M.Sc., University of Victoria, 2004  A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF  DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY  in  The Faculty of Graduate Studies (Integrated Studies in Land and Food Systems) THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA (Vancouver) July 2013  © Lorenzo Magzul, 2013  ii Abstract The burning of fossil fuels and other human activities generating GHG are causing global warming. Global warming impacts such as droughts and floods are not uniform, and societies that are most vulnerable will be affected most. Indigenous communities are more vulnerable because they face more challenging socio-economic and environmental conditions compared to the dominant societies that surround them. However, some indigenous communities have developed strategies that enable them to adapt to climate change. Some of these adaptation strategies include the sustainable management of resources, diverse sources of income and the maintenance and reliance on social support systems–social capital.  Some indigenous communities utilize networks of social support that allow them to influence their social, economic, political and environmental conditions. These networks of social support can also be utilized for the flow of information and to disseminate strategies that lead to collective action required to address the various stresses that they face.  This study investigated the importance of social capital in adaptation to impacts of climate change. Two indigenous communities with different forms of livelihood: the Blood Tribe, in Canada, and the town of Patzún, in Guatemala were compared and contrasted. Understanding the role of social capital in adaptations to climate change impacts can provide adaptation insights to other indigenous communities and other vulnerable sectors.  The change from a subsistence livelihood tends to reduce the social capital of these communities. In Canada, indigenous communities’ dependence on commercial activities and/or government support reflects the dramatic change from an earlier subsistence livelihood. In the highlands of Guatemala, most communities still maintain their subsistence livelihood, though it is increasingly being integrated into a market economy.  The results of the investigation project show that the community of Patzún has more diverse livelihood strategies and stronger social capital compared to the Blood Tribe. The community of Patzún has a larger capacity, and therefore more options to adapt to climate change. This conclusion has implications for the current discussions on change and direction required to enhance the adaptive capacity of indigenous people and the factors that hinder their adaptation.  iii Preface This dissertation evolved from my work as a research fellow for a Major Collaborative Research Initiative called Institutional Adaptations to Climate Change (IACC), funded by the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council. The goal of the IACC project was to develop a comprehensive understanding of the capacities of institutions to formulate and implement strategies of adaptation to the expected climate change risks in two historically dry regions, the South Saskatchewan River Basin (SSRB), in Western Canada, and the Elqui River Basin (ERB) in Northern Chile. To achieve this goal, research teams conducted a series of research activities, including an assessment of the vulnerability of a group of rural communities to climate change. In the SSRB, six rural communities were selected for a vulnerability assessment –three in Alberta and three in Saskatchewan. The Blood Tribe community, in Southern Alberta, was one of the six communities chosen. As one of the research fellows for the IACC project, I conducted ethnographic work and the vulnerability assessment for the Blood Tribe. Following the initial ethnographic work and the analysis of the data, together with two other researchers working for the IACC project, Wittrock V. and Kulshreshtha S. K., conducted a more in-depth investigation and analysis of the impacts of the droughts and floods that had affected the Blood Tribe community. For this additional investigation, I organized a 5-day fieldwork in the Blood Tribe where together with Wittrock V. and Kulshreshtha S. K. were able to obtain further data that we then used for a report on the impacts of droughts and floods on the Blood Tribe. Some of the text and figures in Chapter Four and Chapter Five regarding the Blood Tribe community are versions published in Wittrock et al. (2008) Adapting to Impacts of Climatic Extremes: Case Study of the Kainai Blood Indian Reserve, Alberta, SRC Publication No. 118996E08, of which I am an author. Also, portions of Chapter 5 regarding the Blood Tribe have been modified from, Magzul, L. (2009). The Blood Tribe: vulnerabilities and adaptation challenges to climate change impacts, in Prairie Forum 34. While conducting the research in the Blood Tribe and learning about their experience of climate change, I decided that for my dissertation I would conduct a similar research project in my own community, Patzun, in the highlands of Guatemala. Therefore, this dissertation is about the vulnerability and adaptive capacity to climate change of the Blood Tribe and Patzun and the role of social capital in adaptation. I was solely responsible for the ethnographic work and analysis of data collected in the community of Patzun. The University of British Columbia’s Behavioral Research Ethics Board [certificate #H0580428] approved the IACC project and associated methods, and, it also approved the project and associated methods for the investigations conducted in Patzun [certificate #H07-02524].  iv Table of Contents Abstract ............................................................................................................................................ ii Preface ............................................................................................................................................ iii Table of Contents ........................................................................................................................... iv List of Tables .................................................................................................................................. vi List of Figures ................................................................................................................................ vii List of Abbreviations ...................................................................................................................... ix Acknowledgements ......................................................................................................................... x Dedication ....................................................................................................................................... xi Chapter One: Introduction ............................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Scope, goals and objectives ................................................................................................. 10 1.2 Background .......................................................................................................................... 13 1.3 Thesis structure .................................................................................................................... 17 Chapter Two: Indigenous communities, vulnerability and climate change: social capital as a key determinant to mitigate vulnerability and enhance adaptation to climate change ......................... 18 2.1 Climate change .................................................................................................................... 19 2.2 Indigenous people ................................................................................................................ 22 2.3 Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change .................................................................. 28 2.4 Adaptive capacity and adaptation ........................................................................................ 36 2.5. Sustainable livelihoods ....................................................................................................... 39 2.6 Social capital and climate change ........................................................................................ 40 Chapter Three: Methodology......................................................................................................... 47 3.1 The vulnerability approach .................................................................................................. 47 3.2 Community selection and rationale ..................................................................................... 49 3.3 Research design and data collection methods ..................................................................... 53 3.4 Sampling strategy ................................................................................................................ 54 3.5 Data collection methods ...................................................................................................... 55 3.6 Interviews and focus groups ................................................................................................ 56 3.7 Data analysis ........................................................................................................................ 57 Chapter Four: Socio-economic profiles of the Blood Tribe and Patzún ....................................... 58 4.1 Blood Tribe .......................................................................................................................... 58 4.1.1 Geographic setting ........................................................................................................ 62 4.1.2 Climate ......................................................................................................................... 63 4.1.3 Future climate ............................................................................................................... 67 4.1.4 Water supply and resources .......................................................................................... 68 4.1.5 Social and economic characteristics ............................................................................. 70 4.2 Patzún .................................................................................................................................. 88 4.2.1 Geographic setting ........................................................................................................ 88 4.2.2 Climate ......................................................................................................................... 93 4.1.3 Future climate ............................................................................................................... 98 4.2.4 Water supply and resources ........................................................................................ 100 4.2.5 Social and economic characteristics ........................................................................... 103 Chapter Five: The vulnerability of the Blood Tribe and Patzún to climate change .................... 120 5.1 Blood Tribe ........................................................................................................................ 120 5.1.1. Vulnerability .............................................................................................................. 120 5.1.2 Blood Tribe environmental exposures........................................................................ 122 5.1.3 Social and economic challenges ................................................................................. 131 5.2 Patzún ................................................................................................................................ 136  v 5.2.1. Vulnerability .............................................................................................................. 136 5.2.2 Patzún environmental exposures ................................................................................ 138 5.1.3 Social and economic challenges ................................................................................. 150 5.3 Vulnerability of the Blood Tribe and Patzún, a summary ............................................. 152 Chapter Six: Adaptive capacity and adaptation strategies........................................................... 154 6.1 Blood Tribe ........................................................................................................................ 154 6.1.1. Adaptive capacity ...................................................................................................... 154 6.1.2 Current adaptive strategies to climate/weather related impacts ................................. 159 6.1.3 Social and economic adaptive strategies .................................................................... 165 6.1.4 Future climate change impacts and adaptive capacity................................................ 171 6.2 Patzún ................................................................................................................................ 175 6.2.1. Adaptive capacity ...................................................................................................... 175 6.2.2 Current adaptive strategies to climate/weather related impacts ................................. 181 6.2.3 Social and economic stresses and adaptive strategies ................................................ 189 6.2.4 Future climate change impacts and adaptive capacity................................................ 195 6.3 Adaptation and adaptive capacity of the Blood Tribe and Patzún, a summary ................. 196 Chapter Seven: Social capital and adaptation to climate change in the Blood Tribe and Patzún 198 7.1 Bonding social capital ....................................................................................................... 203 7.2 Bridging social capital ....................................................................................................... 207 7.3 Linking social capital......................................................................................................... 216 7.4.1 Changing livelihoods and erosion of social capital in the Blood Tribe...................... 221 7.4.2 Changing livelihoods and the erosion of social capital in Patzún .............................. 227 Chapter Eight: The Blood Tribe and Patzún, a synthesis and conclusions ................................. 235 8.1 Climate change vulnerabilities .......................................................................................... 235 8.2 Adaptive capacity and adaptation measures ...................................................................... 239 8.3 Improving adaptive capacity ............................................................................................. 241 8.4 Does social capital help in adaptation to climate change? ................................................ 242 4.5 Strength and weaknesses of social capital in addressing climate change.......................... 245 8.6 Recommendations ............................................................................................................. 246 References ................................................................................................................................... 249 Appendices .................................................................................................................................. 270  vi List of Tables Table 4.1: Average temperature and precipitation for Cardston and Lethbridge .......................... 64 Table 4.2: Estimated populations for each community, 2008 ....................................................... 71 Table 4.3: Blood Tribe occupied private dwelling by type, 2001 and 2006 ................................. 75 Table 4.4: Blood Tribe selected housing characteristics ............................................................... 75 Table 4.5: Selected characteristics of labour force at the Blood Tribe Reserve ............................ 84 Table 4.6: Blood Tribe household income 2006 ........................................................................... 86 Table 4.7: Central America: change in average annual precipitation, 1950 to 2006 .................... 93 Table 4.8: Forecasted change in temperature and precipitation for Central America 2020, 2050 and 2080 ................................................................................................................................ 99 Table 4.9: Type of water supply for domestic use, 2002 ............................................................ 103 Table 4.10: Education levels for Patzún in 2002 ......................................................................... 107 Table 4.11: Proportion of the population between 7 and 12 years old and school registration, 2002 ................................................................................................................. 107 Table 4.12: Proportion of the population between 13 and 15 years old and school registration, 2002 ..................................................................................................................................... 107 Table 4.13: Patzún occupied private dwellings by type, 2002 ................................................... 108 Table 4.14 Patzún labour force by occupation ............................................................................ 115 Table 4.15: Poverty levels for Patzún and the department of Chimaltenango ............................ 116 Table 5.1: Major types of land use by ownership, Blood Tribe .................................................. 126 Table 5.2: Summary of the impacts of Hurricanes Stan and Agatha in Patzún .......................... 141 Table 6.1: Flood impacts and Blood Tribe adaptation strategies ................................................ 163 Table 6.2: Drought impacts and Blood Tribe adaptation strategies ............................................ 164 Table 6.3: Economic stresses and Blood Tribe adaptation strategies.......................................... 169 Table 6.4: Social stresses and Blood Tribe adaptation strategies ................................................ 170 Table 6.5: Patzún capital assets ................................................................................................... 180 Table 6.6: Economic stresses and Patzún adaptation strategies .................................................. 193 Table 6.7: Social stresses and Patzún adaptation strategies ........................................................ 194 Table 7.1: Sources of bridging social capital in Patzún .............................................................. 208  vii List of Figures Figure 1.1: Location of the Blood Tribe and Patzún communities ............................................... 16 Figure 2.1: Sustainable livelihoods framework ............................................................................. 40 Figure 2.2: Vertical linkages between society and state ................................................................ 45 Figure 4.1: Map of North America’s northwestern plains ............................................................ 60 Figure 4.2: Blood Tribe study area map ........................................................................................ 64 Figure 4.3: Cardston’s seasonal climate for 1994 to 2006 ............................................................ 65 Figure 4.4: Lethbridge’s seasonal climate for 1994 to 2006 ......................................................... 66 Figure 4.5: Annual temperature (difference from average) and precipitation (percent difference from average) for 1995 to 2006 for Lethbridge and Cardston .............................................. 67 Figure 4.6: Annual temperature (top) and precipitation (bottom) for the SSRB ........................... 68 Figure 4.7: Blood Tribe Reserve and approximate community locations ..................................... 71 Figure 4.8: Population of the Blood Tribe, 1991-2006 ................................................................. 72 Figure 4.9: Age distribution of population at Blood Tribe Reservation and province of Alberta, 2006 ....................................................................................................................................... 73 Figure 4.10: Educational attainment of the Blood Tribe and Alberta populations, 2006 ............. 74 Figure 4.11: Land use on the Blood Tribe Reserve, 2006 ............................................................. 82 Figure 4.12: Kainai Agri-Business Corporation, Blood Tribe Reserve ........................................ 83 Figure 4.13: Distribution of male and female workers by industry, Blood Tribe, 2006 ............... 85 Figure 4.14: Median income for the Blood Tribe and Alberta, 2006 ............................................ 86 Figure 4.15: Map of Guatemala showing the municipality of Patzún ........................................... 89 Figure 4.16: Municipality of Patzún, shaded in red ...................................................................... 90 Figure 4.17: Pipes delivering water to fields cultivated with export crops ................................... 92 Figure 4.18: Average air temperature trend (1961-1990).............................................................. 93 Figure 4.19: Annual precipitation anomalies for 1961-1990 ........................................................ 94 Figure 4.20: Days during year when rain is greater than 40 mm, Guatemala City, 1970-2003. ... 95 Figure 4.21: Monthly average temperature (Celsius), period 1990 to 2010, at Santa Cruz Balanya ............................................................................................................................................... 96 Figure 4.22: Average monthly precipitation, period 1990 to 2010, for Santa Cruz Balanya ........ 97 Figure 4.23: Average monthly wind speed, period 1990 to 2010, for Santa Cruz Balanya .......... 97 Figure 4.24: Temperature variation during the period 2001 to 2100 for Central America relative to 1901—2005 ....................................................................................................................... 99 Figure 4.25: Location of drinking water sources for the town of Patzún .................................... 102 Figure 4.26: Map of the municipality of Patzún – showing the town of Patzún and the various villages ................................................................................................................................. 104 Figure 4.27: Patzún population according to ethnicity ................................................................ 104 Figure 4.28: Patzún population projection to 2020 ..................................................................... 105 Figure 4.29: Patzún population by age distribution for 2004, 2007 and 2010 ............................ 106 Figure 4.30: Poverty levels for the department of Chimaltenango, and for ethnicity, compared to Patzún (in percentages) ........................................................................................................ 117 Figure 5.1: 2005 flood impacts in the Blood Tribe ..................................................................... 124 Figure 5.2: Interactions among various groups affecting socio-economic status of Blood Tribe members .............................................................................................................................. 136 Figure 5.3: Average precipitation and temperature for Guatemala City, 1954-2004 .................. 139 Figure 5.4: Hurricane Agatha’s impact in Patzún: damaged roads, crops, water system and homes in Patzún .............................................................................................................................. 142 Figure 6.1: Blood Tribe capital assets ......................................................................................... 158 Figure 6.2: Seasons and agricultural activities in Patzún ............................................................ 183  viii Figure 7.1: Life scenes in Patzún................................................................................................. 200 Figure 7.2: Life scenes in the Blood Tribe .................................................................................. 202 Figure 7.3: Patzún family harvesting corn................................................................................... 205 Figure 7.4: Patzún community members obtaining computer training ....................................... 217 Figure 7.5: Patzún community members using free Wi-Fi in the community’s central square .. 218  ix List of Abbreviations $ % °C AGEXPORT BBR BSE BTAP BTAR BTAS CAN $ CEH CEPAL CGCM cm COCODE CONRED ENCOVI GCRI ha IACC IARNA IAV IIA INAC INE INSIVUMEH  IPCC KABC km km2 KR MAC MAGA MARN mm NGO No. Pers. Comm. Q SSRB URL  dollar percentage Degree Celsius Asociación Guatemalteca de Exportadores Blood Band Ranch Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy Blood Tribe Agricultural Project Blood Tribe Administrative Review, Blood Tribe Agriculture Sector Canadian dollar Comisión para el Esclarecimiento Histórico (Guatemalan Historical Clarification Commission) Comision Economica para Latino America Canadian Global Climate Model centimetres Consejo Comunitario de Desarrollo (community development council) Coordinadora Nacional para la Reducción de Desastres (National Office of Disaster Reduction) Encuesta Nacional de Condiciones de Vida Global Climate Risk Index hectare Institutional Adaptation to Climate Change Instituto de Agricultura, Recursos Naturales y Ambiente Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability Asociación Instituto de Incidencia Ambiental Indian and Northern Affairs Canada Instituto Nacional de Estadística (Statistics National Institute) Instituto Nacional de Sismología, Vulcanología, Meteorología e Hidrología (National Institute of Sismology, Volcanology, Meteology and Hydrology) Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Kainai Agricultural Business Corporation kilometres square kilometres Kainai Resources Maximum allowable concentrations Ministerio de Agricultura y Ganaderia (Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Nutrition) Ministerio de Recursos Naturales (Ministry of Natural Resources) millimetres Non-governmental orgnanizaiton number Personal communication quetzal (Guatemala’s currency) South Saskatchewan River Basin Universidad Rafael Landíva  x Acknowledgements I would like to acknowledge and thank the following wonderful people for their support in writing this thesis: my supervisors Dr. Alejandro Rojas and committee members Dr. Frank Tester and Dr. Art Bomke. Thank you to my research colleagues from the Institutional Adaptations to Climate Change project for their feedback and support for the work I conducted in the Blood Tribe community. Thank you to Dr. Harry (Polo) Diaz and Dr. Alejandro Rojas who facilitated my SSHRC fellowship in conducting my research. Thank you to the people in the Blood Tribe and Patzún, particularly the people who took the time to share with me their experiences, the challenges that they live with, their hopes, and their knowledge and observations. The time I spent with them has made me wiser and more appreciative of the resilience of indigenous communities. Thank you to my family in Canada, Maeve, Kieran, Manuel, Aideen, Ivor and other extended family; to my dear and recently departed mother, to my father and siblings in Patzún. You believed and supported me and you gave me courage and strength.  xi Dedication  Dedicated to my late mother Juana and my father Gilberto, to my surrogate Canadian parents Aideen and Ivor, to my wonderful partner Maeve and our sons Kieran and Manuel  1 Chapter One: Introduction We express our solidarity as Indigenous Peoples living in areas that are the most vulnerable to the impacts and root causes of climate change…We are deeply alarmed by the accelerating climate devastation brought about by unsustainable development. We are experiencing profound and disproportionate adverse impacts on our cultures, human and environmental health, human rights, well-being, traditional livelihoods, food systems and food sovereignty, local infrastructure, economic viability, and our very survival as Indigenous Peoples (Anchorage Declaration, 2009)  This thesis deals with whether social capital minimizes the vulnerability and enhances the adaptation of two indigenous communities to climate change. The two communities are the Blood Tribe, a Blackfoot community located in southern Alberta, Canada, and Patzún, a MayaKakchiquel community located in the Highlands of Guatemala.  For thousands of years, indigenous people in the Americas have faced life threatening environmental and social challenges because of stresses caused by natural and human forces. Through a review of the literature and/or analysis and discussion of the data collected from communities of the Blood Tribe and Patzún, the various chapters of this thesis will present evidence of the many challenges that indigenous people worldwide have faced. These challenges include environmental disasters (Stoffle and Arnold, 2003; Ellemor, 2005; Green et al., 2009), diseases (Covey et al., 2011), depletion of natural resources (Sawyer and Gomez 2012), climate variability (Covey et al., 2011; Kronik & Verner; 2010, Galoway 2010; ICIA, 2005), wars, colonization and globalization (Sawyer & Gomez, 2012). For some people, these challenges have caused death, displacement, migration, racism, assimilation, dispossession, exploitation, disruption and loss of livelihoods and community breakdown. Yet others have endured the challenges by developing measures and strategies that have allowed them to resist and survive (Kronik & Verner, 2010; ICIA, 2005).  To procure their livelihoods most indigenous peoples have historically relied on the assets and health of their ecosystems. However, the close connection and reliance on ecosystems for their livelihoods make indigenous people vulnerable to impacts of climate related stresses. On the  2 other hand, for many other indigenous people, the interaction and close connection with their ecosystems have also provided them with the understanding and accumulated knowledge that have been instrumental in developing resiliency and strategies for coping with climate stresses. Nevertheless, there are indigenous communities who have not been able to or have been prevented from procuring a livelihood from their own assets and ecosystems. For example, in Northern Colombia, the territory of the U’wa community was one of the most biologically diverse before colonizers and the Catholic Church began to encroach on the territory in the 1950s and forced the U’wa people to live in reservations. From the time the U’wa people were forced to live in reservations they have suffered from violence, disease and malnutrition and their population dramatically decreased from 20,000 to 2000 people (Wagner, 2001). More recently, the U’wa successfully prevented Occidental Petroleum in 1992 from drilling for oil on their territories, however, Ecopetrol, the Colombian national oil company is seeking to expand its operation into U’wa territory (Amazon Watch, nd). The U’wa people is one of approximately 400 indigenous communities in the Amazon basin that is confronting deforestation, oil and gas extraction, mining and the building of large dams that threaten the destruction of their ecosystems and their own survival (Amazon Watch, nd). Moreover, in October 2007, at the UN sixty-second General Assembly, the Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights and fundamental freedoms of indigenous peoples told the Third Committee (Social, Humanitarian and Cultural) that indigenous people worldwide continue to be negatively affected, and some smaller communities are at risk of disappearing, from the shrinkage of their territories. These negative impacts on indigenous people are the result of the dynamics of the globalized economy that has led to “extractive activities, large commercial plantations and non-sustainable consumption patterns have led to widespread pollution and environmental degradation” (UN 62nd General Assembly, 2007).  Like other societies, the current impacts of climate change are affecting the lives of indigenous peoples worldwide. From the Arctic to the Andes, from the Amazon to the Kalahari, indigenous people inhabiting a diversity of ecosystems are being affected by climate change impacts such as shifts in rain patterns, increasing floods and droughts, increasing temperatures, rising sea levels and melting permafrost (Covey et al., 2011; Kronik and Verner, 2010, Galoway 2010; UN 62nd General Assembly, 2007; Salick and Byg, 2007; ICIA, 2005). The continuing survival of indigenous people will require measures of adaptation to climate change.  3 In order to minimize the impacts of climate change on societies worldwide the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has called for the immediate implementation of mitigation and adaptation measures (IPCC, 2007). Yet despite the appeals by the IPCC and civil society (European Civil Society Round-Up, 2009) who are concerned about the detrimental impacts of climate change, most governments have not shown sufficient urgency and leadership in implementing the necessary mitigation and adaptation measures to ensure the well-being of affected communities. The majority of countries worldwide continue to present the problem of climate change as a choice between continued economic growth and less GHG emissions. However, there are examples of countries whose economic and climate policies have shown that economic growth is possible as well as a reduction of GHG. For example, in Germany, the metric ton of CO2eq/capita in 1990 was 15.85 and down to 11.9 in 2010; in Denmark, in 1990 it was 14.04 and down to 11.96 in 2010; in Sweden, it was 10.67 in 1990 and down to 9.15 in 2010; even in Brazil, in 1990 it was 10.73 and down to 8.31in 2010 (EC-JRC/PBL, 2011). On the other hand, the annual percentage growth rate of GDP in 2010 was 4.2 in Germany, 1.6 in Denmark, 6.6 in Sweden and 7.5 in Brazil; in Canada it was 3.2 and in the United states it was 3 (The World Bank, national accounts data, and OECD National Accounts data files, 2012). Germany and the Scandinavian countries show that economic growth is possible with lower carbon outputs. The shift toward a lower carbon economy must involve action by everyone, from our actions as individual consumers and as citizens of a global planet to minimize our ecological footprint. However, this shift must be spurred and led by climate change policies designed and implemented by governments at all levels, local, regional and national; internationally, binding commitments to the reduction of CO2 must continue to nudge economies toward a lower carbon future. With regard to present mitigation measures, many countries have ratified the Kyoto Protocol and have committed to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions by 5% below 1990s levels. However, to date only four countries--France, Belgium, Sweden and the U.K.--have reduced their CO2 emissions and are on course to meeting their Kyoto commitments (The Hill Times, 2009). The United States, one of the largest emitters of CO2, is the only developed country that refused to ratify the Kyoto Protocol. Canada, although a signatory to the Kyoto Protocol, has not lived up to its commitments and some of the measures implemented to reduce CO2 fall far short of their intended objective (Commissioner for Environment, 2008). Canada has recently pulled out of the agreement, and through the passing Bill C-38, the Canadian government will officially repeal the Kyoto Protocol Implementation Act (Huffington Post, 2009). Despite the many indicators of an accelerating rate and worsening effects of climate  4 change (Weaver et al., 2009); policies that drive the global economy continue to emphasize economic growth rather than a deceleration of economic activity and a redefinition of the concept of progress to achieve a sustainable society. The cost of this economic growth is borne by the most vulnerable populations such as indigenous people through the exhaustion and deterioration of their ecosystems, pollution and climate change, and many other detrimental impacts.  Ecological economists have been pointing out to the need to enshrine different criteria and indicators of well-being that until now are solely equated with economic growth (Daly and Cobb, 1994; Constanza et al., 1997; Raj Patel, 2010). However, in the pursuit of economic growth, we are trading our present well-being as well as the future well-being of generations to come, and in the process, we prioritize moneymaking endeavors and sacrifice human relationships because through our market-tinted glasses human relationships have no economic value (Patel, 2010).  Human relationships and ensuring the well-being of future generations are attributes often associated with indigenous people. Indigenous communities that maintain traditional forms of livelihood have close and particular connections and relationships with their ecosystems. These relationships with their ecosystems inform their resource management practices as well as inform other social and cultural aspects of their lives. For example, most indigenous people continue to place great importance on the transmission to younger generations of the accumulated wisdom attained from hundreds of years practicing subsistence livelihoods and managing resources in a largely sustainable manner. However, the present and future well-being of indigenous people is in peril due to many social and economic stresses and climate change (Covey et al., 2011; Kronik and Verner, 2010, Galloway, 2010; UN 62nd General Assembly, 2007; Salick and Byg, 2007; ICIA, 2005).  Indigenous peoples are being affected greatly by climate change impacts, yet they have obtained little or no benefits from the burning of fossil fuels. From a human rights and social justice perspective, the cost of implementing mitigation and adaptation measures to climate change should be the responsibility of those who have benefited most from a fossil fuel based economy. In 2005 Sheila Watt-Cloutier, the chair of the Inuit Circumpolar Conference, and Elders from Inuit communities in Canada and Alaska filed a petition to the Inter-American Commision on Human Rights. In their petition they argued that the Inuit were suffering from “human rights violations resulting from the impacts of global warming and climate change caused by acts and  5 omissions of the United States;” and that the United States is the “world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases, and thus bears the greatest responsibility among nations for causing global warming” (Watt-Cloutier, 2005).  In the Anchorage Declaration, which was drafted in 2009 at a gathering in Anchorage, Alaska, by indigenous leaders from the various continents, indigenous people voice their concerns about what they believe is the disproportionate burden they bear from climate change. These impacts pose great risks to their survival and indigenous people demand that recognition of their fundamental human rights be acknowledged and respected in all decision-making related to mitigation and adaptation to climate change. The concerns and demands raised in the Declaration draw attention to a range of dimensions in which their lives are currently affected by climate change and the expectation that this will continue into the future. These dimensions include physical survival, the health of their ecosystems, cultures and sovereignty. Unlike other poor and marginalized sectors of society, the vulnerability of indigenous people to climate change goes beyond their physical and economic sensitivity to the impacts. Indigenous peoples’ history in relation to colonizers includes the dispossession of their territories and the suppression of their cultures, spirituality and political structures. Hence, the vulnerability of indigenous people to climate change is also a function of the degree of their sovereignty and the strength of their cultural and social institutions. Indigenous communities that are limited or constrained by political and social structures from participating in local, regional or national decision-making processes could be more vulnerable to climate related stresses. Similarly, indigenous people whose cultural attributes and social and political structures have been suppressed could live in conditions that increase their vulnerability to climate change. In addition, most mitigation and adaptation policies and decisions are based on regional or national average indicators and often disregard impacts of climate change experienced by communities at the local level.  With respect to adaptive capacity, assets essential for adaptation to climate change such as economic resources, skills, knowledge and technology are often lacking for indigenous communities. Therefore, their capacity to adapt is less than others who possess the essential assets. Given the particular conditions of indigenous communities vis-à-vis the conditions of dominant societies in which they exist, there are other factors that are key to the adaptive capacity of indigenous communities. These factors include the strength and legitimacy of their governance  6 systems, the level and strength of their social institutions, and the status of their political and economic sovereignty.  Indigenous communities then, in order to adapt to climate change need the essential assets, but they also need factors that strengthen their social institutions, governance systems and sovereignty, which in many cases have been eroded as a result of their history of marginalization and disenfranchisement. The more indigenous people can be self-governing, practice traditional forms of livelihoods and interrelate with their ecosystems the stronger the possibilities of maintaining and fostering social, spiritual and cultural values that are essential to their social institutions and collective identity. This in turn can help in developing effective and appropriate adaptation strategies to climate change.  Climate change is already stressing the ecosystems on which many previous generations of indigenous peoples relied for their subsistence (Covey et al., 2011; Kronik and Verner, 2010, Galoway 2010; Macchi et al., 2008; UN 62nd General Assembly, 2007; Salick and Byg, 2007; ICIA, 2005;). How many more generations can the stressed and fragile ecosystems sustain? For those who already live in fragile ecosystems, the additional stress of climate change means that their traditional livelihoods based on agriculture, livestock, hunting and gathering, fishing and forestry will be at severe risk. Unable to rely on traditional livelihoods, indigenous people face the loss of traditional knowledge and practices and thereby the loss of strategies that may have helped previous generations adapt to climate change as well as other stresses. Left unchecked, the impacts of climate change will likely result in increased risks to food security, health and the preservation of cultural and spiritual wellbeing for those who are most vulnerable.  There are about 370 million indigenous people around the globe. Most of them maintain traditional livelihoods that rely on low energy inputs and methods and therefore their ecological footprint is low (Wood and Garnett, 2009; UN 62nd General Assembly, 2007; Agyeman et al., 2003). Although their ecological footprint is low, they are disproportionately affected by climate change because many live in precarious social and economic conditions. The difficult social and economic conditions that most indigenous people experience can often be traced to unjust colonial policies imposed by Europeans. These policies continue to be maintained by modern states through the pursuit of economic development policies that are unsustainable and to the detriment of the poor and marginalized sectors. These unsustainable policies disregard the limits  7 and finiteness of natural resources and, more critically, give little attention to the negative social, economic and environmental consequences of unchecked economic growth. In the Americas, the invasion of indigenous people’s territories by Europeans resulted in the imposition of social, economic and political structures which set the foundations for the social and political marginalization, the dispossession of land and resources and the creation or exacerbation of unequal access to resources and opportunities for indigenous people. Persisting colonial policies and practices, coupled with globalization policies, continue to affect indigenous people. These effects are reflected in the maintenance or exacerbation of conditions of inequity between indigenous communities and non-indigenous communities in accessing resources, decision-making processes and economic opportunities. These policies have also maintained or created inequitable conditions within indigenous communities. The social, political and economic conditions of Patzún and the Blood Tribe and interviews from respondents which will be presented in later chapters, illustrate how colonial and globalization policies continue to affect these two communities.  Prior to colonization, in the Americas there were class structures and unequal access to resources within some indigenous communities (Perdue, 1979; Hamblin & Pitcher, 1980; Zulawski, 1990; Sider, 2006). Whether these internal inequities and dynamics were directly created or merely exacerbated by European colonial and globalization forces, they have to be included in the discussions and analysis of the factors that determine the vulnerability and adaptive capacity of indigenous people to climate change. Consequently, an assessment of the vulnerability and adaptation of indigenous people to climate change requires an integrated and broad perspective that encompasses dimensions such as power equity, types of livelihoods, social and political institutions and access to resources.  Despite the pressures that have emanated from colonial and globalization policies, many indigenous people persevere with and depend upon forms of livelihoods that allow them to hold onto their values, beliefs and cultural practices. In comparing the communities of Patzún and the Blood Tribe, it can be appreciated that despite globalizations policies the people of Patzún largely hold on to their traditional mode of livelihood, whereas the Blood Tribe has been unable to persevere with a livelihood that was mostly sustainable. For these communities, persevering with their traditional livelihoods ensures the preservation of knowledge and practices that could guide  8 them to develop climate change adaptation strategies and measures. It can also inspire humanity to appreciate and adopt values and practices that help re-conceptualize the notions of progress, sustainability and individual well-being as a function of the greater collective well-being and ecological health.  Although there are similarities among indigenous peoples around the world, they are not a homogenous population. The diversity of the ecosystems that they inhabit, and the types of livelihood, traditional strategies and economic and social policies under which they function, greatly determine how and why they are differentially exposed to climate change, as well as how and why they have different coping capacities to the impacts they experience. In this context, it is not surprising to find that some indigenous people are more vulnerable to climate change than others are.  While it is widely recognized that most indigenous peoples around the globe face incredibly difficult social and economic conditions, and are therefore vulnerable to climate change, few studies have been undertaken to document their exposure to these climate change impacts as well as their capacity at the community level (ICIA, 2005 UN 62nd General Assembly, 2007). However, an examination of the scholarly literature, the commitments of global governance institutions and the demands by indigenous people, reveal that there is an increasing need to document the community-level experiences of exposure and adaptation of indigenous people to climate change.  Documenting the experiences of indigenous peoples at the local level, identifying the barriers, limitations, risks and opportunities they face because of climate change can greatly contribute to the development of adaptation strategies, policies and solutions that are appropriate for their local context. Documenting their experience at the local level can also serve to identify their strength and weaknesses, assets and deficits, which can then inform adaptation strategies that are based on local evidence and experience and therefore more locally appropriate.  Although there are sophisticated global climate change models that can provide future climate scenarios at the global, national and even regional level (Hay and Clark, 2003; Leung et al., 2003; Giorgi et al., 2001; IPCC, WGI, 3rd Assessment Report; IPCC WGI 4th Assessment Report,  9 2007), these scenarios do not necessarily provide an understanding of the past and present impacts of climate change that have been and are experienced by communities at the local level. Therefore, one of the main purposes of this study was to document the past and present experiences of climate change exposure and adaptation of two indigenous communities at the local level, and this understanding and documentation is then used in assessing their present and future vulnerability and adaptive capacity.  In assessing the vulnerability of the two communities various factors were taken into account, such as their particular physical location, social and economic conditions, ownership, control and management of the natural resources, access and level of financial resources, and human and social capital.  In this research, a significant focus was placed on investigating the potential role that social capital can play in the adaptive capacity of these communities. The concept of social capital used here is that which focuses on relationships and networks (Woolcock (2001); Putman (2000); and Narayan (1999). According to Stone and Hughes (2002), various elements constitute the strength and resiliency of communities in confronting diverse stressors such as climate change. These elements include a mix of natural, human, financial/economic, and institutional and social capital. Stone and Hughes suggest that the levels of participation, cooperation and collective action by members of a community reflect the level of their social capital.  Proponents of social capital suggest that the level of social capital in a society is a key asset in meeting a variety of challenges because it can be a source of cohesiveness, cooperation and action. Social capital can enhance community cooperation and collective action (Putman, 2008; Agnitsch et. al., 2006; Reimer, 2002), can lead to increased opportunities for economic advancement (Woolcock, 2001), community development (MacGillivray and Perry, 2000) and the adaptation of immigrant and ethnic groups to urban settings (Lauglo, 2000; Giorgas, 2000). According to Giorgas (2000), groups with a strong cultural and collective sense of identity possess social capital and utilize it better because they maintain strong familial surroundings, strong cultural boundaries and collective identity. More recently, social capital has been explored in its potential to promote collective action in disaster preparedness and in adaptation and mitigation of the impacts of climate change (Adger, 2003; Pelling, 2003; Douglas, 2007; Allen, 2006).  10 Most indigenous people live without the various forms of capital that constitute a resilient community as a consequence of the historical and current economic and political conditions which have been imposed on them. There is, however, an expectation that, given their supposed strong cultural boundaries and sense of identity, they have high levels of social capital and that these high levels would partly counteract the deficiencies in other forms of capital. From this line of deliberation, the rationale for focusing on social capital as a potential key factor in the adaptation of indigenous communities to climate change is that if a high level of social capital is indeed present in a community, it can constitute a source of strength that can be tapped. Moreover, without having to depend on intermediaries, bureaucracies or outside agents –because social capital is embedded in a community as a result of their levels of interaction, trust and reciprocity– communities with high levels of social capital have a higher sense of empowerment while at the same time they are also much more resilient. However, as discussed further in the following chapters, social capital does not intrinsically lead to greater adaptive capacity, empowerment or resiliency. In fact, under given conditions, strong social capital within small groups can undermine cohesiveness and collective well-being in a community; hence, strong social capital can increase the vulnerability of communities rather than enhancing their adaptive capacities.  1.1 Scope, goals and objectives Despite the limitations and barriers that indigenous communities experience in coping with the many challenges that they face, some have had success in adapting to changing climatic conditions by developing adaptation strategies based on hundreds of years of observation and accumulated knowledge gained from managing their ecosystems. Others have also maintained strong social support networks–social capital–, which they rely on and which have been instrumental in coping with stressful situations. These include the sharing of food and resources in times of crises, as well as sharing and transmitting information and culturally specific values and perspectives that are fundamental in the development of long-term adaptation strategies.  At present, however, an increasingly modernized and globalized world is slowly but surely incorporating indigenous people into its dynamics. In addition, some indigenous communities, whether willingly or not, are caught up in a global economy based on longer chains of production and consumption and facilitated by the rapid and easy access to information and technology. As  11 will be explored in the following chapters, indigenous communities who become participants in this global economy could be at greater risk of managing their resources unsustainably and consequently at risk of losing those social, cultural and spiritual values that constitute the foundations for their social and cultural institutions.  On the other hand, the modern and globalized world may provide some positive outcomes for indigenous people. With technology such as the Internet, some indigenous people are making direct and long distance linkages with other indigenous and non-indigenous communities and institutions to share information and knowledge. This could potentially help in forming wider and more diverse networks of support beyond their own communities, region or nation.  Taking into account the specific cultural and socio-economic conditions of indigenous people, yet also recognizing the present modern dynamics in which they are increasingly participating, this study aimed to respond to the following research questions: 1. To what extent are the communities of the Blood Tribe and Patzún vulnerable to impacts of climate change? 2. What are the environmental and socio-economic conditions of these communities and how these conditions influence their vulnerabilities to climate change? 3. Do the communities have current adaptive strategies? 4. What is the status of the social capital in these communities? 5. What is the importance of social capital in adaptations to climate change impacts? Research Goal: The goal of this project was to investigate and understand the vulnerability and adaptation of the two indigenous communities; identify the constraints and opportunities for adaptation; investigate the levels of social capital and investigate whether social capital can play a significant role in their adaptation efforts to climate change. This goal was conducting a vulnerability assessment of the two communities, comparing their forms of livelihood and their levels of social capital.  Research objectives: 1. To determine the current physical and social vulnerabilities to climate change in the two communities;  12 2. To determine the effects of climate change impacts on the communities; 3. To determine the level of social capital in the communities and its role in their adaptation to climate change impacts.  Research Relevance  The project evaluates the capacity of the communities to address climate change impacts with a focus on how the social capital may help them cope with the impacts. Understanding the role of social capital in adaptations to climate change impacts can provide adaptation insights to other indigenous communities.  It provides a better understanding of the adaptive capacity of indigenous communities to climate change and their predisposition to coping strategies based on the existence, or lack of, social capital in the community. It informs whether social capital is an asset that other communities can depend on for adapting to climate change. It shows that the level of social capital in a community, like the other types of capitals, depends on the pre-colonial, colonial and current developments that shape the political economy of a community. It has the potential to facilitate information exchange and learnings between indigenous communities in Canada and Guatemala, and in other countries, that can help to determine, design, strengthen and implement adaptation strategies to climate change.  Core concepts  The core concepts used include exposure, adaptive capacity, resilience and vulnerability. These concepts will be elaborated on and discussed in detail in Chapter 2.  Exposure  Exposure of a community to climate change impacts over time reflects the characteristics of the community relative to the climatic stimuli; therefore, the characteristics of the Blood Tribe and Patzún that contribute to their exposure to climate is a reflection of their broad social, economic and political conditions as well as their use of and access to resources.  13 Adaptive capacity  The ability of the Blood Tribe and Patzún to undertake adaptations to (cope with or take advantage of) impacts of climate change depends on, among other aspects, their access to financial, technological and information resources, infrastructure, institutional environment, political influence and social capital.  Vulnerability  The vulnerability of Patzún and the Blood Tribe is a function of their exposure to climate change and their adaptive capacity. The more the communities are exposed to climate change, the more vulnerable they are; and, the less their adaptive capacity, the more vulnerable they are.  Social Capital  Social capital is the social relationships and networks that allow community members to access information and develop collective strength, which they then use to coordinate and take individual or collective action in order to adapt to climate change. 1.2 Background The focus of this study evolved from my work as a research fellow for a Major Collaborative Research Initiative called Institutional Adaptations to Climate Change (IACC), funded by the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council, which was undertaken by a team of researchers from various Canadian and Chilean universities and partner organizations. The goal of the IACC project was to develop a comprehensive understanding of the capacities of institutions to formulate and implement strategies of adaptation to the expected climate change risks. The focus was on institutions’ capacity to adapt to the forecasted impacts of climate change on the supply and management of water resources in the South Saskatchewan River Basin (SSRB)1, in Western Canada, and the Elqui River Basin (ERB) in Northern Chile. To achieve this goal, the research teams conducted a series of research activities, including an assessment of the vulnerability of a group of rural communities to climate change, as well as an assessment of the 1  The SSRB is an area of approximately 166,000 km2 that covers southern portions of the provinces of Alberta and Saskatchewan; this area is the largest dryland watershed of Canada and is characterized by historical water deficits.  14 organizational capacity of water governance institutions to address the vulnerabilities of the communities in the two basins (Hulbert, Corkal & Diaz, 2009; Wandel, Young, & Smit, 2009; Magzul, 2009). In the SSRB, six rural communities were selected for a vulnerability assessment –three in Alberta and three in Saskatchewan. Out of the six communities chosen, the Blood Tribe was the only First Nation community. A team of researchers conducted an ethnographic fieldwork in each community.  As one of the fieldwork researchers, I conducted the ethnographic work and vulnerability assessment for the Blood Tribe. I am an indigenous person, Mayan, from Guatemala and I welcomed the opportunity to spend time in the Blood Tribe and learn about their experience with regard to climate change. As an indigenous person that was born and raised in a community where livelihoods are constrained by many social and economic challenges, I can identify with Canadian First Nations communities and individuals who face similar challenges.  My fieldwork in the Blood Tribe provided me with my first opportunity to spend an extended period in a First Nation community in Canada. I observed the daily lives of the members of the Blood Tribe community. I interacted with and interviewed men and women, members of Chief and members of Council, Band employees and ordinary community members. During this process, I was able to gather information to assess the community’s vulnerability and adaptive capacity to climate change.  I have lived in Canada for over twenty years, and during this time, I have experienced rich interpersonal relations with First Nations people. I have had short visits in various First Nations communities in British Columbia, but I never spent an extended time in one community. In conducting the vulnerability assessment of the Blood Tribe and subsequently sharing the findings with them, I was able to visit the community several times and spend extended periods there. During the time spent in the community I conducted observations, identified key respondents, conducted interviews and focus groups, and shared findings of the study through presentations to Chief and Council, schools and ordinary members of the community.  15 While conducting the research in the Blood Tribe and learning about their experience of climate change, I concluded that conducting a similar research project in my own community, where I have deep personal ties, in the highlands of Guatemala would provide me an opportunity to assess the vulnerability and adaptive capacity to climate change of two indigenous communities. These communities are very different with regard to their geographical locations, social, economic and political settings. Yet they are similar in their social and economic disadvantage in relation to the dominant societies that surround them. Moreover, as an indigenous person and member of one of these communities, Patzún, I believed that I had a good understanding of the challenges faced by these communities and that the insights and analyses from this study would provide a unique perspective on the vulnerability and adaptive capacity of indigenous people.  The two communities, The Blood Tribe and Patzún, are located in areas at risk to climate change impacts and face adverse social, economic and other environmental conditions. These communities are situated in vastly different settings with respect to livelihoods, social dynamics, political power and their relation to the dynamics of a globalized world. The Blood Tribe is located in the vast dryland prairies of Canada where full-fledged European contact occurred just over 150 years ago. Patzún is located in the fragile highlands of Guatemala where the Spanish settled over 500 years ago. The Blood Tribe is less reliant on a subsistence livelihood, whereas Patzún is very reliant on a subsistence and traditional livelihood practiced since pre-Spanish contact. The two communities live with social and economic disadvantages compared to the nonindigenous societies that surround them.  In comparing the two communities, there was an obvious question to answer: would the Blood Tribe, located in a high-income country and with seemingly greater availability and access to resources, social services and with strong formal institutions, fare better in adapting to climate change compared to a community like Patzún, which is located in one of the poorest low-income countries of the world and with few resources, social services and weak formal institutions?  16 Figure 1.1: Location of the Blood Tribe and Patzún communities  Source: Google maps  17 1.3 Thesis structure This thesis consists of eight chapters. Chapter One presents the introduction, the rationale for the project, the project’s research questions and goals, and the thesis structure. Chapter Two presents the conceptual frameworks used to guide the thesis. Chapter Three outlines the methodological approach used for the thesis. Chapter Four provides a socio-economic profile of the two communities, the Blood Tribe and Patzún. Chapter Five assesses the vulnerability of the Blood Tribe and Patzún to climate change. Chapter Six assesses the adaptive capacity of the Blood Tribe and Patzún, including an assessment of the role of social capital in adaptation. Chapter Seven provides a comparison of the vulnerability and adaptive capacity of the two communities. Chapter Eight provides a summary of the thesis, major findings, conclusions and recommendations.  18 Chapter Two: Indigenous communities, vulnerability and climate change: social capital as a key determinant to mitigate vulnerability and enhance adaptation to climate change Communities most vulnerable to climate change are those that are more exposed to climate stimuli and have the least capacity to adapt. It is not surprising, then, to find that in general developing countries and the poorest sectors of societies are experiencing most of the impacts of extreme weather events associated with climate change.  According to the Global Climate Risk (GCR) Index 2012 (Harmeling, 2012), which analyzes the worldwide impacts of weather related events such as storms, floods, heat waves, hurricanes and other such events, the countries most affected in 2010 were Pakistan, Guatemala, Colombia and Russia. The GCR Index for the period 1991-2010 ranks Bangladesh as the country most vulnerable to weather related impacts, followed by Myanmar, Honduras, Nicaragua, Haiti, Vietnam, Dominican Republic, and Pakistan, Korea DPR and the Philippines.  According to the GCR Index, where 1 represents the highest risk, in 2012 Guatemala was ranked 12 and Canada was ranked 110 in vulnerability to weather events. By comparing the 2010 and 2012 GCR Indexes, it can be observed that the vulnerability of Guatemala increased; in 2010, Guatemala was ranked 34 and in 2012, it was ranked 12. On the other hand, Canada’s vulnerability decreased; in 2010, Canada was ranked 62 and in 2012, it was ranked 110.  The GCR Index is useful in estimating the impacts of extreme weather events and it can be used as a guide to estimate the vulnerability of countries affected by climate change. The Index can also be used to inform adaptation measures even though it utilizes only quantifiable impacts such as the number of deaths and the sum of economic losses to measure the “impacts” of climate change. By using only quantifiable indicators, the Index has limitations in capturing and reflecting a more accurate picture of other significant impacts of weather events. By using only quantifiable indicators, the Index may also significantly underestimate the impacts in developing countries because most developing countries may have not have appropriate monitoring and data collection programs to provide quantifiable indicators of weather event impacts, nor does it specify the affected regions, sectors or classes within a given country.  19 According to the authors of the GCR Index, the 2009 Copenhagen summit needed to establish an ambitious Adaptation Action Framework in order to address the current and future adaptation efforts by developing countries, including the provision of specific and targeted financial support for climate adaptation, as well as the continuation of financial support for the attainment of Millennium Development Goals and Official Development Assistance. Following the Copenhagen summit, at the 2010 summit in Cancun, Mexico, an Adaptation Framework was adopted, which sets out a process for the provision of institutional and financial support for the most vulnerable countries to climate change.  As the GCR Index indicates, over the past two decades weather related impacts have had the greatest effect on low-income countries and no doubt will continue to affect them more than high-income countries in the future. This is a clear indication that the poorest sectors of society have the greatest challenges in adapting to climate change because they lack the various resources needed to adapt and are under considerable duress from other social and economic stressors. Consequently, since most indigenous communities constitute the poorest sectors of societies worldwide, adapting to climate impacts will continue to be one of their greatest challenges. It is important, therefore, to discuss perspectives and concepts that can help understand the experiences that indigenous people face in the context of climate change. In this chapter, the following themes are discussed: climate change, indigenous peoples, vulnerability and adaptation to climate change, adaptive capacity and adaptation, sustainable livelihoods, and social capital and climate change. 2.1 Climate change In the Fourth Assessment Report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007), Working Group I (WGI) reports that the global atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide have unequivocally increased as a result of human activities. The Report states that increases in the concentration of carbon dioxide are the result of fossil fuel use and land use change, while the increase of methane and nitrous oxide concentrations are primarily due to agriculture. According to WGI, carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration has increased from a pre-industrial value of about 280 ppm to 379 ppm in 2005, and that the latter concentration far exceeds the natural range of 180 to 300 ppm observed over the last 650,000 years. In addition, the rate of annual increase in CO2 concentrations over the last 10 years was 1.9  20 ppm, which is greater than the 1.4 ppm rate of increase in previous years. With regard to methane, its concentration in the atmosphere increased from a preindustrial level of 715 ppb to 1774 ppb in 2005; the 2005 methane concentration exceeds the natural range of 230 to 790 observed over the last 650,000 years. Nitrous oxide concentration increased from a preindustrial level of 270 ppb to 319 ppb in 2005, and its rate of growth has remained constant since 1980 (IPCC, 2007). Studies assessed by WGI indicate that the earth’s climate system is warming as a result of the increased concentrations of greenhouse gases. Global averages for air and ocean temperatures have increased, as have the averages of melting of snow and ice and average sea levels. Of the twelve years between 1995 and 2006, eleven years rank among the warmest years in the instrumental record of global surface temperature. The increase in temperature from the period of 1850–1899 to 2001–2005 was 0.76°C, and as the result of widespread melting of snow and ice, the average sea level rose at an average rate of 1.8 mm per year over 1961 to 2003. The rate was faster between 1993 and 2003: about 3.1 mm per year. During the same period, regions such as the eastern parts of North and South America, northern Europe and northern and central Asia have shown significant increases in precipitation. On the other hand, drying has been observed in the Sahel, the Mediterranean, southern Africa and parts of southern Asia (IPCC, 2007). According to the IPCC’s 2007 report, the increase in temperature will range between 1.8°C and 4.0°C by 2100, depending on the levels of greenhouse gases released in the atmosphere. The increase in temperature will cause extreme weather conditions such as drought and floods that will affect many parts of the world.  In Human health; Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Working Group II (IPCC, 2007) states that the impacts of climate change on natural and managed ecosystems are not uniform and are not expected to be so in the future. The effect of these impacts will depend on the resilience and adaptability of the affected ecosystems. In the same vein, the impacts on human societies will ultimately be determined by their resilience and adaptability. Though it is difficult to predict temporally and spatially the exact intensity and overall impacts of climate change, WGII concludes that extreme events such as droughts and floods will have greater impacts on societies that directly depend on ecosystems for their livelihood (IPCC, 2007). Populations that are particularly vulnerable are those that “have less ability to respond to stresses  21 imposed by climate variability and change, and have exhibited limited progress in reducing current vulnerabilities. For example, all persons living in a flood plain are at risk during a flood, but those with lowered ability to escape floodwaters and their consequences are at higher risk” (IPCC, WGII, Ch 8, p. 412).  An update of the physical sciences of climate change was recently presented in the Copenhagen Diagnosis (Weaver et al., 2009). According to this update, in 2008 the emission of CO2 from fossil fuels was 40% greater than 1990 emissions; over the past 25 years the temperature increased at a rate of 0.19 0C; there has been an acceleration of melting ice-sheets, glaciers and ice-caps since 1990, and the average global sea-level rise has been 3.4 mm/year, which is 80% more than the predictions of previous IPCC reports. From this update, the global sea-level rise could be twice as much as what was predicted by the IPCC in 2007.  Although there is consensus among climate experts that climate change will affect vulnerable populations most, it is much more difficult to predict with certainty the specific impacts on specific locations and sectors of society. There are, however, general approximations of the nature and scale of the impacts on societies based on their geographic location, risk of exposure, mode of livelihood, sensitivity to exposure, assets and capacities for adaptation. Societies that have high risk of exposure, high sensitivity to these exposures and who are deprived of assets and opportunities are the most vulnerable.  Indigenous communities often constitute the poorest sectors of societies worldwide. They live in marginal conditions, and under imposed political and economic systems. They have limited access to resources and have little political and economic power compared to most economic and political actors within the dominant societies with which they coexist. Under these conditions, indigenous people face great social, economic and environmental stresses. The socioeconomic divide between indigenous people and other sectors of society is reflected by the fact indigenous people continue to over represent the poor and destitute and those affected by environmental disasters (UN, State of the World’s Indigenous Peoples, 2009).  22 2.2 Indigenous people Although Indigenous peoples share many common characteristics, they are not a homogenous group. Indigenous peoples live in dynamic communities. Some communities have coped with diverse stresses and have survived despite their marginalization. The type and extent of the marginalization of indigenous communities is largely a function of the historical colonial economic and political structures imposed on them and their capacity to resist these structures. Despite the various tensions and forces that they face, some indigenous communities persevere with the sustainable management of their resources and maintain social safety nets that have helped them cope and survive for hundreds of years.  More recently, indigenous communities face constant challenges in navigating the tension between the preservation of traditional beliefs and practices and the allure of modernity that promises “progress” through economic growth. For some, the need to improve their precarious conditions is too great to ignore and they adopt resource management practices that are unsustainable. Employment and income generated from unsustainable management practices can alleviate some of their difficulties in the short term until their resources begin to deteriorate and ultimately are exhausted. This supposed “economic progress” through economic growth is now increasingly being questioned because it disregards the carrying capacity of ecosystems. It does not benefit all sectors of society and has created a myriad of environmental problems, including climate change. Although the forces of globalization are powerful and ubiquitous, some indigenous communities have resisted and maintain some form of traditional livelihood, social institutions, and ethnic identity and continue to transmit ecological knowledge to future generations. According to the UN, State of the World’s Indigenous Peoples, 2009, one third of the 900 million extremely poor rural people in the world are indigenous people. They face challenging issues including assimilation, dispossession, relocation and denial of land rights, yet they also inhabit biologically diverse ecosystems, maintain strong cultures and traditional knowledge. On the one hand, these unique strengths that continue to support the survival of indigenous people are increasingly recognized as key assets for their future well-being; but on the other hand, there is a pervasive tendency to commodify and exploit indigenous people’s remaining ecosystems as well  23 as their culture and knowledge for the benefits of others and to the detriment of indigenous people (UN, State of the World’s Indigenous Peoples, 2009). One of the assets that have been central to indigenous people’s lives is their Traditional Ecological Knowledge (TEK). Traditional Ecological Knowledge includes forms of beliefs, knowledge and practices used by indigenous people in the management of their resources (Berkes, 1999; Gadgil, Berkes, & Folke, 1993; Menzies & Butler, 2006; Nadasdy, 2006; Nadasdy, 2005). Key characteristics of TEK include its transmission from generation to generation and the recognition of the interconnectedness of all the components of an ecosystem. There is a widespread belief among indigenous people that for the web of life to exist the physical components of ecosystems are just as important as the biological ones, and therefore are a subject of deep respect (Turner et al., 1998, Turner et al., 2000). This view of the world recognizes the interdependence and the interaction between living and non-living components of ecosystems. It is a view that is equivalent to “systems thinking” that is now commonly used in the natural and social sciences, where all phenomena are understood to be a part of an overall system and/or web of relationships. For indigenous people, TEK encompasses relationships among and between physical and biological components, some of which may not be immediately visible yet of paramount importance to the maintenance of life itself. In the social realm of indigenous people, this long-held systemic thought is of great importance and is reflected and manifested in the development and maintenance of strong collective units and identities (families, clans, communities). The success of the collective unit in coping and adapting to stressors or stimuli enhances the survival of the individual.  Despite efforts to resist the pressures of modernity, some indigenous people have succumbed and have been forced to adopt resource management practices that undermine the maintenance of TEK. For those who have adopted unsustainable resource management practices, their view of life has transitioned to a view where individualism and competition are considered as the main strategies for individual survival. Hence, in addition to following a path toward the deterioration of their ecosystems they also are at risk of losing their social institutions, identity and beliefs.  With the encroachment of a globalized economy, traditional indigenous economies and societies are increasingly pressured to adopt modern methods of livelihood and the production of goods for  24 global markets, and in the process get caught up in the traps of consumerism by buying and consuming non-essential goods produced in distant places. For many indigenous communities these developments have forced them to abandon what until now have largely been sustainable resource management practices that rely on local and low energy inputs. Instead, they adopt resource management practices that require imported and high-energy inputs, while the goods they produce are now geared for an external market.  Like other societies worldwide, indigenous people are being integrated into the machinations of a global economy. In this process, the heterogeneity and uniqueness of indigenous people are in danger of being shaped into a homogenous mass of consumers and producers. The consequences of this process include the erosion of traditional forms of livelihoods, the consumption of nontraditional foods, the deterioration of their ecosystems, and exposure to pollutants and climate change. The combination of all of these consequences negatively affects the health and future of their ecosystems and consequently community and individual health as well.  In comparing indigenous communities like the Blood Tribe and Patzún, it is useful to provide a definition of who is considered “indigenous.” According to the United Nations, indigenous people are “communities, peoples and nations… having a historical continuity with pre-invasion and pre-colonial societies that developed on their territories, consider themselves distinct from other sectors of societies now prevailing in those territories, or parts of them” (UN, State of the World’s Indigenous Peoples, 2009, p. 4). Although indigenous communities are sometimes thought of as societies that live in “premodern” times, with forms of livelihood in stark contrast to the industrial and technology based modern forms, a more helpful view is to acknowledge that they are dynamic communities. As dynamic societies, they have been able to survive along a continuum of livelihoods and have coexisted, and will likely continue do so, with other societies that have settled on their territories. The settlement of exploiting societies and invading forces on their territories has resulted in unique social, economic and environmental stresses for indigenous peoples. Societies that “conquered” or “settled” indigenous territories more often than not have exploited and pillaged natural resources found on those territories and indigenous societies inhabiting those territories have been marginalized economically, socially, politically and culturally . Despite the difficulties  25 that indigenous peoples have endured, their continuous existence, and particularly the maintenance by some communities of traditional livelihoods, political governance and social structures reflect their resiliency and their ability to adapt to the many challenges. Of course, some indigenous communities have adapted better than others have. Those who have adapted continue to survive and even thrive, whereas those who have not adapted as well have not been able to survive or are now in danger of collapsing.  In recent years, indigenous people have increasingly brought attention to their disadvantaged condition compared to other sectors of society and they have successfully had these concerns acknowledged at international forums and in high profile declarations. The success in getting their concerns acknowledged has been based on the concepts of social justice and human rights— concepts that have been much more readily embraced by global institutions than by the nation states where indigenous people live. There are now important declarations that express commitments for improving the lives of indigenous people. For example, Inter-American Commission on Human Rights’ Proposed Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples recognizes that there is concern:  About the frequent deprivation afflicting indigenous peoples of their human rights and fundamental freedoms, within and outside their communities, as well as the dispossession of their lands, territories and resources, thus preventing them from exercising, in particular, their right to development in accordance with their own traditions, needs and interests.” (IACHR, Proposed Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples, 1997)  Given the disadvantaged conditions of indigenous people, the IACHR’s Proposed Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples contains provisions aimed to protect their ecosystems, thus acknowledging the importance that ecosystems have for their well-being and survival. In the context of climate change, provisions that call for the right of indigenous people to a safe and healthy environment, the right to access and use their resources for their own subsistence, the right to participate in decision making processes of policies and actions that may affect them and the right for assistance to protect their ecosystems, all have important implications for their adaptive capacity, their right to participate in the formulation of climate change decisions, mitigation of GHG and the implementation of adaptation measures:  26 Indigenous peoples have the right to a safe and healthy environment, which is an essential condition for the enjoyment of the right to life and collective well-being. Indigenous peoples have the right to be informed of measures which will affect their environment, including information that ensures their effective participation in actions and policies that might affect it. Indigenous peoples shall have the right to conserve, restore and protect their environment, and the productive capacity of their lands, territories and resources. Indigenous peoples have the right to participate fully in formulating, planning, managing and applying governmental programmes of conservation of their lands, territories and resources. Indigenous peoples have the right to assistance from their states for purposes of environmental protection, and may receive assistance from international organizations (IACHR’s Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples, Article XIII, 1997). Indigenous peoples have the right to maintain and develop their political, economic and social systems or institutions, to be secure in the enjoyment of their own means of subsistence and development, and to engage freely in all their traditional and other economic activities (United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples— UNDRIP, 2007, Article 20) When indigenous people exercise their own traditional livelihoods, they may be more resistant to the allures of the global economy while also avoiding economic activities that require a high carbon input (e.g. industrial agriculture, large scale fishing, etc.), therefore mitigating CO2 emission. The continuation of traditional livelihoods also facilitates the transmission of TEK, which can inform adaptation measures to climate change. Provisions developed with regard to the protection of indigenous peoples’ ecosystems and for their rights to determine the priorities of use and management of their ecosystem are particularly relevant in international negotiations on financing adaptation projects:  Indigenous peoples have the right to determine and develop priorities and strategies for the development or use of their lands or territories and other resources. States shall provide effective mechanisms for just and fair redress for any such activities, and appropriate measures shall be taken to mitigate adverse environmental, economic, social, cultural or spiritual impact. (UNDRIP, Article 32). Indigenous peoples deprived of their means of subsistence and development are entitled to just and fair redress. (UNDRIP, Article 20)  27 A holistic analysis of the conditions of indigenous people vis–à–vis climate change shows that, on the one hand, they suffer from poverty, displacement, migration, racism, assimilation, dispossession and exploitation of their resources, which make them vulnerable. On the other hand, we see that some continue to practice livelihoods that recognize the limits of their ecosystems and manage resources based on accumulated knowledge, which can inform current and future adaptation strategies to climate change.  Social justice and human rights perspectives make possible an understanding of the nexus between indigenous people and climate change, and provide recognition of the precarious conditions that indigenous people suffer from, and that these conditions must and should be addressed first as a fundamental condition to minimizing their vulnerability to climate change. There is also recognition of the fundamental human rights of indigenous peoples to maintain forms of livelihoods and practices that enhance the health of their ecosystems and their own health. Social justice and human rights support the notion the that indigenous people should enjoy conditions that allow them to live with dignity, to live as members of a world community, with the same privileges— no more, no less—than others.  As discussed earlier, some indigenous communities have been and are being integrated into the global economy, often resulting in negative social, economic and environmental consequences. However, there are potential positive aspects of the rapid globalization of societies. For example, the power of technological developments allow the flow of communication and information across a multiplicity of boundaries (physical, political, cultural), which can potentially raise awareness on a global scale of the difficult challenges and the inequities that indigenous people are experiencing. With an increased awareness of the plight of indigenous communities, the global community can be more vigilant and intervener when indigenous resources are exploited by global capitalism. The globalization phenomenon can also draw attention to the reality that there is an increased interdependence among societies worldwide, and this realization can potentially lead us to view the world with the systemic perspective that indigenous people have done for millennia.  For example, the successful adaptation of indigenous farmers, fishers, hunters or gatherers to climate change will allow them to continue to produce food, fibre and other products, for their  28 own livelihoods and food security. However, due to globalization some people may have become reliant on those foods and resources; therefore, the successful adaptation of indigenous people to climate change also ensures the well-being of others who have become dependent on those ecosystems. By becoming aware of the fact that all members of the global community are interdependent, we should be able to recognize that to the greatest extent possible all people should have the responsibility to live within the limits of the world resources so that future generations can enjoy the privileges that have enjoyed. 2.3 Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change It has increasingly been acknowledged that the vulnerability and adaptive capacities of societies with regard to the impacts of climate change need to be placed into a broader socio-economic context, so that the formulation of strategies of adaptation are informed by this broader context rather than in isolation. In the IPCC 2001 report, it is recognized that climate change is not a stand-alone problem. It can affect and be affected by broader socioeconomic and cultural factors of a community including poverty, economic development, population growth and local adaptive strategies and capacities.  In analyzing the drivers of climate change and other environmental challenges within a broader context, it is important to recognize that the current economic system –a capitalist system– that dominates the production, extraction, distribution and use of resources is characterized by largescale industrial activities (Brauch, 2008; Harvey 1996). The great speed and scale of these economic activities have required the consumption of immense quantities of fossil fuel by processes that are largely responsible for the emission of greenhouse gases.  In capitalism, an unregulated and free market is deemed the most efficient mechanism for achieving economic growth and progress. The demand and supply of goods, services and resources are supposedly efficiently met through an exchange meant to improve the lives of everyone. The conception of the unregulated market as the most efficient and ideal mechanism for allocating resources is still being claimed despite the evidence of a widening gap between rich and poor, unequal access to resources and power inequity (Oswald Spring 2008; Saxe Fernández, 2008; Isaak, 2004). The 2008 economic meltdown and the subsequent intervention of state governments to bail out the largest financial institutions is just one example that the unregulated  29 and free market is not as efficient a mechanism as it is purported to be. The not so “efficient” market economy continues to be espoused as the answer to the myriads of economic and social needs of societies. If the remediation of the 2008 global economic downturn were to continue to be sought through the pursuit of economic growth disregarding the limits of ecosystems, the ecological conditions awaiting future generations would not be appealing. The economic system that came to a halt in 2008 was exploiting resources unsustainably, harming biological and social systems through the exhaustion of resources, environmental degradation, greater poverty and inequality (Oswald Spring 2008; Saxe Fernández 2008; Isaak, 2004). Although some countries have been able to stabilize their economies, in other countries like Greece, Spain, Italy and others, some people continue to suffer the consequences of high unemployment and face a very uncertain future. For example, in July 2012, unemployment in Greece hit a record 25.1%, while the unemployment rate among young people, 24 years old or younger, was 54.2% (BBC, 2012). In an April 2013 speech by Cristine Legarde, IMF’s managing director, at the Economic Club of New York, warned that the improvement in financial markets has not translated into an improvement in people’s lives:  The big question, of course, is: where does the global economy stand? Five years after Lehman, is the world finally getting back on a positive path? I wish I could give you a simple answer but, unfortunately, the truth is a bit more complicated than that, and looks more like a mosaic… We are seeing new risks as well as old risks. In far too many countries, improvements in financial markets have not translated into improvements in the real economy—and in the lives of people (Legarde, 2013). There is a wide consensus2 in the scientific community that human activities are contributing to climate change and the accompanying adverse effects on human and natural systems. These adverse effects will continue, along with the vulnerability of communities to climate change, unless the current forms of economic and human activities become more sustainable; that is, unless these activities are realized within the carrying capacity of the world’s resources (IPCC, 2007).  2  Findings of the IPCC have been endorsed in the US by the American Association for the Advancement of Science, American Chemical Society, American Geophysical Union, American Meteorological Society, and American Statistical Association; in Canada by the Canadian Foundation for Climate and Atmospheric Sciences and the Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society. There are many other Scientific associations in the world who have endorsed the IPCC findings; a list of these associations is available at:  30 Evidence that climate change has been affecting in particular the poorest sectors of society has been widely acknowledged. As well, the need for developing adaptive strategies particular to these sectors has been emphasized. For example, in Poverty and Climate Change: Reducing the Vulnerability of the Poor through Adaptation (Poverty and Climate Change), a report issued under partnership of high profile organizations including the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), the World Bank and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development Programme (OECD Poverty and Climate Change, 2003), states that based on scientific evidence climate change is happening and the impacts are and will be affecting the poorest sectors of society. Although it is imperative to mitigate climate change impacts by reducing the emission of greenhouse gases, for sectors of society that are most vulnerable, the focus is on adaptation. In the Poverty and Climate Change report, it is argued that the vulnerabilities of poor communities in parts of Asia, Africa and Latin America to impacts of climate change will exacerbate existing vulnerabilities such as limited access to drinking water, poor health and food insecurity. According Poverty and Climate Change report: “[o]ver 96% of disaster-related deaths in recent years have taken place in developing countries. Often, extreme weather events set back the development process for decades. With fishing grounds depleting, and droughts, floods, and storms destroying entire annual harvests in affected areas, the El Niño phenomenon serves as a prime example of how climatic variability already affects vulnerable countries and people today. In many developing countries, climate change already increases stresses from climate variability and extremes and will do so increasingly in the future” (OECD Poverty and Climate Change, 2003, p. X). In its 2007 report, the IPCC WGII echoes views presented in Poverty and Climate Change (OECD, 2003), that the vulnerability to climate change will be greater in populations that experience stress from other sources, such as poverty, unequal access to resources, food insecurity, environmental degradation and risks from natural hazards. Therefore, reducing these other stresses also reduces the vulnerabilities to climate change. Mechanisms that can be used to enhance the coping ability of vulnerable populations to climate change include increased access to information and technology, equity in the distribution of resources, stocks of human and social capital (IPCC WGII, 2007).  31 Unfortunately, as observed in many instances worldwide, the current economic model of development activities continues to exacerbate climate-related vulnerabilities rather than reduce them. These activities exacerbate vulnerabilities because they fail to address the non-climate stresses such as poverty, food insecurity, and unequal access to resources, environmental degradation and risks from natural hazards. In fact, WGII notes that despite the seemingly obvious benefits of promoting sustainable development as an adaptation strategy to climate change –that is to say that “development” should address existing vulnerabilities such as poverty, food insecurity, inequity in access to resources and the erosion of traditional livelihoods– only a handful of efforts explicitly recognize and acknowledge this fact (IPCC WGII, 2007). The promotion of development that addresses existing vulnerabilities should be viewed as a key mechanism for reducing climate change impacts. According to the IPCC WGII, in addition to an emphasis on sustainable development as strategy for the reduction of existing socioeconomic vulnerabilities, it is also important to pursue a mix of other approaches by governmental institutions and communities toward the reduction of vulnerabilities to climate change, including “specific policies and programmes, individual initiatives, participatory planning processes and other community approaches” (IPCC, 2007 WGII, Ch. 20, p. 813).  The Poverty and Climate Change report (OECD, 2003) and IPCCP WGII (2007) reflect the increasing recognition of important factors to consider in the nexus between the environment, climate change and the poor. First, there is an interrelation between natural and human systems; particularly that human systems depend on natural systems for their livelihood. Second, societies that directly depend on vulnerable natural systems are themselves more vulnerable to climate change impacts. Lastly, those poor sectors of society and communities that depend on vulnerable natural systems are the most vulnerable to climate change. There is, then, an increased recognition that sectors of society that lack sufficient natural, physical, human and financial capital are often the most vulnerable to environmental stresses such as climate change. Nevertheless, as the IPCC WGII (2007) notes, although vulnerable sectors of society or communities lack various forms of capital that limits their adaptive capacity, they may possess other means and assets, such as social capital, which can increase their coping ability to climate change.  32 Some indigenous communities can be used as case studies of communities that have limited incomes and live in poverty conditions, yet may have assets in the form of livelihood strategies, developed from experiences and accumulated knowledge, and social capital that they can utilize in developing adaptations strategies.  The IPCC WGII 2007 report observes that there are studies emerging that explore how indigenous knowledge can provide learning opportunities in adaptations to climate change. For example, among the Inuit in Canada and Alaska, hunting is a source of food for subsistence and a mechanism for the transmission of cultural values from generation to generation. Rapid changes in permafrost, sea ice and weather patterns have already affected mammal populations on which the Inuit depend for their subsistence (Stern, 2007; Nichols et al., 2004; ACIA, 2005). However, the IPCC WGII 2007 report states that traditional local knowledge of people in the Canadian Arctic contributed to identifying the implications of climate change impacts on the integrity of freshwater in deltas. Identifying the potential risks the climate change pose to freshwater deltas allows for the opportunity to devise strategies that mitigate or avoid these risks.  Similar to Inuit communities in North America, many indigenous peoples in Latin America, and particularly in Central America depend on their ecosystem for their subsistence. The 2007 WGII IPCC report states that small scale and subsistence farmers in the region are particularly vulnerable to climate change. This vulnerability derives from the warmer and drier trends and extreme weather events observed in the area over the recent years (IPCC WGII, 2007). Warmer temperatures can lead to the loss of soil organic matter due to an acceleration of the decomposition process and thus affecting soil erosion and fertility, whereas drier trends lead to vulnerability to wind erosion. Extreme rain events on the other hand, increase soil erosion, especially in soils with less organic matter (Altieri & Koohafkan, 2008).  Although subsistence and farmers are vulnerable to climate change, they can also hold valuable knowledge and experience that can inform adaptation strategies. Subsistence farmers’ agricultural systems often embody centuries of accumulated knowledge and practices and the dependence on local and low intensity inputs. These systems are based on polycultures that reflect considerations of time and space, which aim to minimize risks and maximize yields (Altieri & Koohafkan, 2008). These subsistence agriculture systems have shown greater resilience to recent extreme  33 climatic events that have affected Central American countries including Guatemala. To gauge the impacts of Hurricane Mitch (1998), the Campesino to Campesino movement, surveyed 1,804 neighbouring sustainable and conventional farms in 360 communities in Nicaragua, Honduras and El Salvador. The survey showed that sustainable farming plots exhibited higher soil moisture content, less erosion and less economic losses than the conventional plots (Altieri & Koohafkan, 2008).  In general, it is important to recognize that all societies are potentially vulnerable to climate change and other environmental stresses. It is equally important, however, to recognize that all societies have potential means and assets and possess great potential to adapt to environmental stresses.  Although indigenous communities may share similar vulnerabilities and adaptive capacities with other poorer sectors of society, one of their key characteristics is that they still depend on their ecosystems for maintaining particular subsistence needs and particular cultural identities and worldviews. They also exist within institutional structures that may have been imposed on them because of colonial and present day government policies. They may also be increasingly linked to a global world. All of these factors can result in the transformation of their social relations, group structures and human-environment interactions. Therefore, to assess their vulnerabilities to climate change and to develop appropriate adaptation strategies requires particular approaches and considerations.  According to Adger et al. (2003), efforts to find alternative approaches to address the vulnerabilities and adaptive capacities of marginalized sectors of society are increasingly being considered. These efforts are attempting to integrate insights from social and natural sciences, but they also need to take into account more of the historical and recent experiences of resourcedependent societies, and to especially identify the strategies that these sectors have implemented to cope with climate variability.  In the case of indigenous peoples, it is particularly important to recognize that their communities are dynamic: some communities may be largely self-sufficient, others may no longer have a strong reliance on their ecosystems for their subsistence; some may have strong social support  34 systems and be united; others may be fragmented. Adaptation strategies need to reflect this dynamism.  The concept of vulnerability now used widely in the context of climate change has a strong foundation on the systemic view of phenomena. It accounts for the interdependence between human and natural ecosystems because it includes an analysis of why and how the impacts of climate change on a system will likely affect other systems. Various authors, for example, associate the concept of vulnerability with the harm or loss caused by the adverse effects of climate change on human and natural systems (Adger, 2006; Smit and Wandel, 2006; Leichenko and O’Brien, 2002; Vogel et al, 2007; Cutter, 1996).  There are two key components of the vulnerability concept: exposure-sensitivity and adaptive capacity. In human systems, exposure is the degree to which a system is sensitive to a climate related physical stress, and this sensitivity, which can be felt adversely or beneficially, is determined by the broader social, economic, political and environmental conditions in which the system exists (Smit and Pilifosova, 2003; Adger et al, 2003). Adaptive capacity in the cases of the Blood Tribe and Patzún means their ability to undertake adaptations to (cope with) impacts of climate change given, among other aspects, their access to financial, technological and information resources, infrastructure, institutional environment, political influence and social capital.  For most indigenous people, their livelihood involves the production or use of goods from their natural resources, and constitutes the means for the maintenance of values, beliefs and knowledge. Therefore, the adverse impacts of climate change on their livelihoods also affect many other aspects of their lives. Placing the vulnerability of indigenous peoples to climate change in a broader context helps to track and analyze the impacts on the physical, economic, social and cultural aspects of their lives. For example, in the community of Patzún, corn is a source of food, a key component of a polyculture system (corn, beans and squash) that incorporate considerations for soil nutrients cycling and dietary needs. It also embodies a strand of their history (Mayans believe that humans came from corn), a means for transmitting traditional knowledge and an integral aspect of their spiritual beliefs (Mayans believe that corn is sacred and given to them by their creators). If climate change were to prevent the people of  35 Patzún from growing corn and the other crops that constitute their polyculture system, the repercussions would be more than just the lack of food. It would also adversely affect their ability to maintain and transmit traditional knowledge; negatively affect their health and the health of their ecosystem and the associated strategies they may have developed in response to past and present climate stresses.  IPCC WGII report (2007) also takes into account the human and ecologic nexus in analyzing vulnerability and adaptation to climate change. It states that impacts of climate change will be greater on social systems that have less adaptive capacity and directly depend on natural ecosystems for their subsistence, although in this analysis there is a greater emphasis on the biophysical impacts of climate change and not so much on the implications on social systems. Thus, the official IPCC definition of the concept of vulnerability is:  Vulnerability is the degree to which a system is susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate change and variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity (IPCC WGII 2007, p. 883)  Other authors, however, place similar, if not greater, emphasis on the need to analyse the effect on human systems, and the existence of different adaptive capacities between and among individuals and groups. Based on these recognitions, they define vulnerability as “the ability or inability of individuals or social groupings to respond to, in the sense of cope with, recover from or adapt to, any external stress placed on their livelihoods and well-being” (Kelly and Adger, 1999, p. 328).  Similarly, a Task Force on Climate Change, Vulnerable Communities and Adaptation (IISD, IUCN, WCU, SEI, SACD, 2003) states that to understand the vulnerability and develop successful adaptation strategies for poor sectors of society, it is important to consider their means of livelihood which include assets such as natural capital, social-political capital, human capital, physical capital and financial capital. Therefore, for poor people:  Vulnerability is both a condition and a determinant of poverty, and refers to the (in)ability of people to avoid, cope with or recover from the harmful impacts of factors that disrupt  36 their lives and that are beyond their immediate control. This includes the impacts of shocks (sudden changes such as natural hazards, war or collapsing market prices) and trends (for example, gradual environmental degradation, oppressive political systems or deteriorating terms of trade) (ISSD, IUCN, SACD & IF, p. 6). This latter definition is in line with authors such as Liverman (1994) and Adger and Kelly (1999), who emphasize the vulnerability of individuals and social groups rather than on the natural system. 2.4 Adaptive capacity and adaptation The IPCC WGII (2007, p. 869) defines adaptive capacity as “the ability of a system to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes) to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with the consequences.”  In the context of communities, adaptive capacity is the ability of a community to cope, respond or adapt to stressors like climate change. The adaptive capacity of a community is a function of the existence and access to the various types of capital—physical, financial, natural, human and social—and the institutional processes within which the community operates (Wisner et al., 2004; Yohe and Tol, 2002; Smit and Pilifosova, 2001; Adger et al, 2001; Kelly and Adger, 2000).  With regard to adaptation, the IPCC Third Assessment Report 2001 defines adaptation as an: Adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities. Various types of adaptation can be distinguished, including anticipatory and reactive adaptation, private and public adaptation, and autonomous and planned adaptation Adaptation, then, refers to present as well as future adjustments aimed at coping, minimizing or avoiding climate impacts. Depending on the timing of the adjustments, these can be reactive (adjustments taken once the impacts have occurred) or anticipatory (adjustments taken in anticipation) (IPCC, 2001). The adaptation of human systems to climate change, according to Smit and Pilifosova (2001), means the adjustments that these human systems make to enhance the viability of their social and economic activities in order to reduce their vulnerability to climate-related extreme events as well as longer-term impacts of climate change. This adjustment can be passive, reactive or  37 anticipatory, where anticipatory adjustments represent actions taken to ameliorate the anticipated impacts of climate change. PEP’s discussion of adaptation is similar to Smit’s and Pilifosova’s (2001), but argue that considering the varied biophysical and social context in which poor sectors of society exist, successful adaptation strategies must consider the timing and spatial contexts. Therefore, they state that adaptation strategies “should include local actions taken by the poor themselves in response to changing market or environmental conditions supported by larger-scale, planned responses by government or other institutions that provide adaptation measures that are beyond the control or capabilities of local communities” (Poverty and Climate Change, OECD, 2003, p. 5-6).  The definitions of vulnerability and adaptations used by Poverty and Climate Change (OECD, 2003) are key in the context of this research project. Poverty and Climate Change’s (OECD, 2003) definitions are particularly relevant because for most indigenous people their socioeconomic marginalization exacerbates their vulnerabilities to impacts of climate change and it influences their adaptive capacity. They may also have assets including social capital that can influence the direction of particular actions toward their adaptations to the impacts. Despite the socio-economic challenges that indigenous communities face—or perhaps because of them— some of them have been able to develop subsistence strategies using the diversity of the environment and effective management of land and water resources (Brookfield & Stocking, 1999).  It is undeniable that adaptation to climate change is paramount for the well-being of sectors of society and communities who are already under stress from other stimuli, and given that they may lack various forms of capital limiting their ability to adapt, social capital takes on a very important role in their adaptation efforts. To assert that social capital can be very important to the adaptation of indigenous people to impacts of climate change does not mean, however, that their access to other forms of capital to increase their adaptive capacity should be neglected or denied.  The IPCC 2001 report acknowledges the importance of considering the socio-economic, environmental and policy factors that influence the adaptation of indigenous communities to  38 impacts of climate change. The report states that for some indigenous peoples the change from a livelihood of subsistence, which was much more flexible to climate variability, to a form of livelihood more closely linked to commercial activities reduces their adaptation to climate change impacts.  The two indigenous communities observed in this study are along a continuum of livelihoods. The livelihood of the people of Patzún is based largely on the production of corn, which is a component of polyculture system that also includes beans and squash and that provides vital dietary needs as well as maintaining ecosystem health: the three plants planted together interact symbiotically, and when consumed together enhance dietary quality. In recent years, however, the people of Patzún have also been growing food for export such as broccoli, snow peas and other vegetables. The export of food crops has transformed the local food economy from one that was primarily based on the production of food for local consumption to one where some of the food production satisfies the demands of consumers in places thousands of kilometers away. The production of food for distant markets has resulted in a decrease in the production of food for local consumption and consequently the people of Patzún are consuming other foods besides corn, beans and squash. Although corn remains the staple food, it is not out of the ordinary now for some people to eat processed foods. In fact, food security is being compromised through a decrease in food self-sufficiency, changes in agricultural practices and a nutrition-transition toward processed foods high in added fat, sugar and salt.  The Blood Tribe people, on the other hand, no longer practice a livelihood of subsistence. Their subsistence livelihood based on the hunting of buffalo, ungulates, and harvesting and gathering of plants has almost disappeared. Some Blood Tribe people still hunt deer and harvest and gather some plants and berries, but these activities are not significant for their subsistence. The implications of the type of livelihood practiced by the communities on their vulnerability and resiliency to climate change will be elaborated on in the following chapters. In light of the IPCC’s 2001 observations on subsistence versus non-subsistence livelihoods, climate change would pose greater adaptation challenges to the Blood Tribe community, which no longer relies on a subsistence livelihood and instead depends more on commercial activities and government support. The community of Patzún, which is much more reliant on a subsistence  39 livelihood, and still largely dependent on their natural resources, may have better adaptation options to climate change impacts. 2.5. Sustainable livelihoods The concept of sustainable livelihoods is a very useful analytical framework when it is applied to communities and vulnerability to climate change. This framework accounts for the existence (or absence) of resources and institutional processes within a community, and the combination of these elements informs and determines the livelihood strategy that a particular community may follow to cope with climate change. According to Chambers and Conway (1991):  livelihood comprises the capabilities, assets (stores, resources, claims and access) and activities required for a means of living: a livelihood is sustainable which can cope with and recover from stress and shocks, maintain or enhance its capabilities and assets, and provide sustainable livelihood opportunities for the next generation; and which contributes net benefits to other livelihoods at the local and global levels in the short and long term. (Chambers and Conway, 1991, p. 6) Figure 2.1 shows and adapted livelihood framework, applicable to households and communities, where the concepts of exposure and adaptive capacity to climate change have been incorporated. This framework provides the means for analyzing the paths and levels of interactions that influence the exposure of a community to climatic stresses as well as its adaptive capacity. The adapted framework shows that a community’s levels of the various capitals can influence its exposure to a climate stressor. For example, people in a community with deficiencies in their physical capital (e.g. poor housing conditions) will be more exposed to floods, excess rainfall and heat. At the same time, the more they are exposed to these impacts, the greater the risk of damage to the homes and consequently their vulnerability is heightened. On the other hand, the capital assets, policies, institutional and governance structures of the community influences the livelihood strategy of the community; the resulting outcomes, such as levels of income, access to natural resources, social networks, determine the adaptation measures the community develops and implements.  40 Figure 2.1: Sustainable livelihoods framework  Source: DFID Sustainable Livelihoods Guidance Sheets Section 1 (1999)  2.6 Social capital and climate change One of the focuses of this study is to explore the manner in which social capital influences the adaptive capacity of indigenous communities, and the sustainable livelihood framework is an appropriate framework for this exploration. The sustainable livelihood framework takes into account the various resources, the assets that people need in order to attain the livelihoods that allow them to subsist. In addition to the knowledge and physical resources that they require in attaining their livelihoods, people also need social support systems based on relationships and networks that can assist with material needs as well as provide a basis for belonging and identity.  Indigenous people that have survived and thrived have done so by using the various resources available to them; their resilience and adaptability is a testament to their resourcefulness. Undoubtedly, knowledge and physical resources are central to an individual’s survival, but very few individuals live in isolation depending entirely on their own selves to survive. Most individuals live in some form of communities or larger society, and for these individuals their success in surviving is largely dependent upon their own role and their relation with others in the  41 community. Communities with organizational structures based on healthy relationships, on relationships based on caring, respect, trust and reciprocity provide good lives for individual members. Communities with these types of relationships have greater collective strength, collective knowledge and diverse skills. Indigenous people who have been successful in adapting to the many challenges they have experienced have done so based on the strength of the collective, the collective knowledge accumulated and the recognition of the diversity of skills that each individual member contributes to the collective good. The Blackfoot people -- ancestors of the Blood Tribe now living in the Canadian prairies—survived for millennia hunting buffalo despite living in a historically dry environment. Their knowledge of buffalo migration to areas where water was available, for example where beaver had dammed streams or rivers, allowed them to predict the movement of buffalo and be prepared and successful in hunting (Daschuk and Marchildon, 2005). The knowledge needed for this adaptation strategy was held in the collective memory of the community. The skills and strategies for a successful hunt were developed from years of experience and the knowledge transmitted from generation to generation. Their survival in a harsh environment was founded as much on the knowledge of their environment and on the accumulated knowledge and skills acquired as on the relationships between one another. The relationship of trust, reciprocity and care for another, their social capital, was central to the Blackfoot survival.  According to Lin et al. (2001) the concept and theory of social capital has drawn interdisciplinary interests perhaps because it captures sociological concepts such as social support, social integration, social cohesion and norms and values and because it shares commonalities with the concept of human capital. As Lin (2001) notes, in many cases the various definitions of social capital can be vague and confusing. It is, however, important to keep in mind that most definitions have a common element, which is the notion of social relationships and networks that social groups can access for support. For example, for Bourdieu it represents the “actual or potential resources which are linked to possession of a durable network of more or less institutionalized relationships of mutual acquaintance and recognition" (Bourdieu, 1986, p. 248). Portes, on the other hand, states that social capital is “the ability of actors to secure benefits by virtue of membership in social networks or other social structures” (Portes, 1998, p. 6). Putman defines social capital as “features of social organization such as networks, norms, and social trust that facilitate coordination and cooperation for mutual benefit” (Putnam, 1995, p. 67). For  42 Woolcock, social capital includes “the information, trust, and norms of reciprocity inhering in one's social networks” (Woolcock, 1998, p. 153).  According to Lin (2001), to better understand the concept of social capital, it is necessary to understand the basic tenets of the classical theory of capital, which can be traced back to Karl Marx. The basic tenets of Marx’s theory hold that capital represents two distinct elements. On the one hand, capital represents the surplus value captured by the owners of the means of production in the production, circulation and consumption of commodities. This surplus value is the value above the costs of labour, materials and other expenses required for the production and circulation of commodities. On the other hand, capital represents an investment from which a return is expected. The extension of the classical theory of capital to other forms of capital such as natural, human, cultural and social capital derives from its notion of investment as capital. Thus, human capital represents an investment by enhancing, for example, levels of technical skill and knowledge in exchange for future expected returns such as higher earnings. Following the notion of investment as an element of capital, Lin argues that social capital represents an “investment in social relations with expected returns” (Lin, 2001, p. 6). These expected returns are in the form of emotional support and acceptance, reward, opportunities or public acknowledgement of claim to certain resources. These returns are possible because the social structures and networks allow individuals and the collective group access to flow of information, influence, social credentials and reinforcements. Therefore, for Lin, social capital is defined as the “investments in social relations by individuals through which they gain access to resources to enhance expected returns of instrumental and expressive actions” (Lin, 2001, p. 19). Instrumental actions can take on the form of economic, political and social returns while expressive actions represent the consolidation or resources by accessing and mobilizing “others who share interest and control of similar resources in order to preserve and protect existing resources” (Lin, 2001, p. 19). Moreover, the types of return obtained can be classified into physical health, mental health and life satisfaction, where life satisfaction includes satisfaction with community and neighbourhood environments.  Increasingly in the narrative of adaptation to climate change, social capital is being explored as a resource that communities may be able to use to facilitate and improve their adaptation. This focus on social capital is based on the notion that effective adaptation of communities to climate  43 change is based on their ability to take collective action and to develop strategies based on processes that facilitate coordinated action.  Adger (2003) suggests that resource dependent communities often use social networks to access and disseminate the flow of information and strategies in order to take individual and collective action. The communities’ ability to take collective action in managing, protecting and preserving their resources that partly determines their ability to adapt. Adger (2003) states that when there is limited access to information on the predicted impacts of environmental change —as is the case for poor communities that face climate change —the communities’ social capital is of critical importance in the sustainable management of their resources. Moreover, Adger (2003) argues that historically human societies have faced climatic changes and that these societies have had to adapt. These adaptations have been achieved at the individual and group level, or by governments on behalf of societies, but the key element in this adaptation process is “the interdependence of agents through their relationships with each other, with the institutions in which they reside and with the resource base on which they depend” (Adger, 2003, p. 389). It is through the establishment and investment in networks, and the development of norms, rules, knowledge, obligation and acts of reciprocity that the individuals and groups access and obtain natural capital and take collective action to manage their natural capital. Thus, the traditional management of, for example, fisheries and forests is “a manifestation of social capital” (Adger, 2003, p. 291). Therefore, the collective actions taken by societies in adapting to climate change are manifestations of social capital and the success of these actions is critical in adapting to climate change.  With regard to the role of social capital as a contributing factor to the adaptation of the poor to impacts of climate change, Poverty and Climate Change (OECD, 2003) states that  [al]though poor people have limited income, they have assets and capabilities that can be strengthened to reduce their vulnerability to climate change…Traditional systems for adapting to climate variability include a range of livelihood strategies, from individual to collective savings mechanisms and migration. Social networks play a fundamental role for the poor by providing safety nets as an immediate response in adverse times. In addition, informal “solidarity” networks may be constituted or strengthened after climaterelated disasters occur. In the past, interventions from outside have often undermined rather than supported the efforts of informal networks. Instead, these networks should be  44 recognized for the important role they play in environmental management in the face of adversity (Poverty and Climate Change, 2003, p. 15-16). Although the existence of social capital has been largely associated with better adaptation to climate related stresses (Adger, 2003; Pelling, 2003; Ebi and Semenza, 2008; Allen, 2006), there are instances where social capital has been shown to increase the vulnerability of certain social sectors. Wolf et al. (2009) conducted a study in the United Kingdom on the vulnerability of elderly people to heat waves. The study showed that heat waves had significantly affected the health of the elderly through cases of dehydration, limiting their mobility and increasing their risk of isolation. However, the elderly interviewed downplayed the vulnerability of their health to heat waves –they did not believe that heat waves negatively affected their health– and this perception was reinforced by family members and friends, who believed that the elderly were not at risk and communicated this belief to the elderly. Therefore, Wolf et al. (2009) argue that the close-knit network of support by family and friends heightened the vulnerability of the elderly rather than minimized it.  Strong social capital formed among small groups, families and friends, can be of detriment to other groups, especially if the cohesiveness, cooperation and strength of one group deny or limit the participation of others in decision-making processes and in accessing resources. In these instances, social capital leads to the monopolization of benefits by a small group and an increase in corruption to the detriment of others (Olson, 1982; Putman, 2000).  Adger (2003), like other authors (Putman, 1995, 2000; Woolcock & Narayan, 2000), discusses the importance of distinguishing three types of social capital: bonding, bridging and linking. Bonding social capital is based on close and intimate networks of family, kinship and locality. Bridging social capital is based on more open networks of like-minded groups, but not necessarily in the same locality (neighbourhood), such as cooperatives or peasant groups. Linking social capital are networks developed between people and groups that may differ in identity and have different levels of social, economic and political power. Often these networks exist and funtion in different localities, thus widening the community’s relationship with regional, national and even international agencies, and consequently expanding the community’s access to information, knowledge and even financial resources.  45 Considering that the adaptation of societies to climate change impacts is influenced by the availability and access to various forms of capital and by the formal institutional arrangements in which they operate, it is critical to assess, for example, when and what state policies support, fail to support or diminish social capital of a group. A state with policies that promote social and policy learning, through democratic participation, empowerment of marginalized groups and effective environmental governance, can positively influence bridging and bonding social capital (Figure 2.2)  Figure 2.2: Vertical linkages between society and state  State  State  Policies and laws promoting security and sustainability  Policies and laws promoting security and sustainability  States substitutes for external linkages  Bonding social capital  Social and policy learning–highest adaptive capacity  Bridging social capital  Flow of public and private resources compliance and regulation Flow of information and resources  (From Adger, 2003)  In a rapidly globalizing world, the increasing interrelation among societies is being actualized in many aspects of life: through the integration of local economies into a global economy as much as through global environmental stresses, such as climate change impacts. Although some  46 indigenous communities still lead a largely traditional livelihood, they are increasingly affected by external factors that are the result of global economic or environmental linkages.  In this chapter, it has been discussed that for indigenous peoples the recognition of their contextual socio-economic, political and cultural conditions is imperative when analyzing and assessing their vulnerability to climate change, as well as in designing and implementing measures for their adaptation. Similarly, indigenous communities constitute vulnerable populations to climate change because they often lack types of capitals that limits their adaptive capacity; however, it is possible that these communities have social support systems—their social capital—that can enhance their adaptive capacity.  47 Chapter Three: Methodology This chapter outlines the methodological approach used to assess the vulnerability of the communities of the Blood Tribe and Patzún to climate change, their adaptive capacity and the potential role of social capital in their efforts of adaptation. The following sections describe the research approach, rationale for choosing the two communities, the use of a comparative case study, preparation steps, methods of data collection and interpretation and analysis. 3.1 The vulnerability approach The approach that guided the case studies of the communities of the Blood Tribe and Patzún was the vulnerability approach. The vulnerability approach (Cutter, 1996; 2003, Turner et al., 2003; Downing & Patwardhan, 2003; Ford and Smit, 2004; Smit and Wandel, 2006) involves the assessment of climate change impacts experienced by communities at the local level given their particular social, economic, political and environmental conditions. In the vulnerability approach the vulnerability of a community to climate change is understood as a function of its exposure to the risks and opportunities presented by climatic changing conditions and its ability to cope, adjust or take advantage of these changing conditions (Kelly and Adger, 2000; Yohe and Tol, 2002; Smit and Wandel, 2006).  The vulnerability approach allows and encourages the involvement of a cross-sector of community actors in identifying the factors that contribute to their vulnerability: what challenges they face most, and how and why these challenges influence their experience with climate change.  This approach does not begin by assuming that the communities are exposed to particular climate change impacts, nor assume that they possess particular forms of adaptive capacity. Rather, climate change impacts and the adaptive capacity of the communities are identified and determined from the data collected and through the interview process itself by allowing the respondents the opportunity to reflect and analyze their conditions.  Ethnographic fieldwork is a key method of inquiry of the vulnerability approach because it elicits information that allows an understanding of the conditions, issues, challenges, and opportunities that are of priority to the members of the communities. According to Brewer (1994, p.231),  48 “ethnography is both a method (data collection technique) and a methodology (a theoretical and philosophical framework);” it is a qualitative method of data collection that includes participant observation, field notes, focus groups, interviews, and surveys, through which the researcher analyzes and interprets human behavior and experiences in the natural setting of the subject (Brewer, 1994). Since ethnographic research is conducted in the natural setting of the subjects, the ethnographic approach facilitates the subjects’ interpretation of their own realities and experiences (Altheide and Johnson, 1994).  In this study, the ethnographic methodology facilitated analyses by members of the two communities of their priorities and how these priorities have been and will be influenced by climate change. In this context, the vulnerability approach sought to uncover what climate related impacts the communities have experienced in the past, in the present and what they could potentially experience in the future. It also allowed the identification and analysis of what measures, if any, the people have implemented to address the impacts. It also aimed to understand who is affected, in what way they are affected and why. Moreover, the vulnerability approach linked the present vulnerabilities to potential future climate change vulnerability by forecasting the likely climate exposures the communities will face in the future based on their past and present social, economic and environmental circumstances (Smit and Pilifosova, 2003; Ford and Smit, 2004).  The vulnerability approach is increasingly utilized for investigating the vulnerability of indigenous communities to climate change because it is an integrative approach that takes into account the socio-economic, cultural and health aspects of the people (Berkes and Jolly, 2002; Petheram et al., 2010).  An integrative perspective of the various factors that determine the vulnerability and adaptive capacities of the two communities is conceptualized through the adapted livelihood framework (Figure 3.1), which was described and elaborated on in Chapter Two.  The assessment of the past and current exposure-sensitivity of the two communities was achieved by 1) documenting the extent to which the communities of the Blood Tribe and Patzún are and  49 have been exposed to impacts of climate change, and 2) identifying the social, economic, cultural and political challenges that the communities face.  The adaptive capacities of the communities were assessed based on: 1) various stocks of capital, levels of economic and political sovereignty, cultural identity and access to resources; 2) what adaptive strategies, if any, they have used and are using to cope with climate and weather related stresses; 3) the level of social capital in the communities and what factors influence the status of this social capital; and 4) the question of whether or not social capital plays an important role in adaptations to climate change.  Following the determination of the past and present exposure of the communities to climate related stresses, the strategies that the communities have formulated in order to cope with or take advantage of these stresses were identified. In essence, this phase of the research produced a list of the climate stresses the communities have experienced and the strategies the communities have used in adapting to these stresses.  The determination of the future vulnerability of the communities to climate change was achieved by analyzing the current vulnerability of the communities in the context of future climate change as forecasted by climate change models. An analysis of the likely future social and economic conditions in the communities, based on trends, further provided a profile of the future vulnerability and adaptive capacity of the communities. Given the present and future vulnerability of the Blood Tribe and Patzún, the final stage of the study attempts to answer the question: will the Blood Tribe and Patzún be able to adapt to climate change? If not, why will they not be able to adapt and what is necessary for them to adapt to climate change. If yes, what are the main characteristics that allow the communities to adapt? 3.2 Community selection and rationale As described in the introductory chapter, as part of the Institutional Adaptations to Climate Change Project, the Blood Tribe was identified, together with about a dozen other communities in the South Saskatchewan River Basin, as an ideal community of focus for a vulnerability assessment. Ideal in the sense that the community would provide an opportunity to understand the specificities of climate change adaptations of a First Nation community; it is one of the largest  50 reserves in Canada and located in an area historically exposed to droughts; and, there was an offer of support and guidance on how and who to approach in the Blood Tribe community by a Blackfoot contact in the area. Another factor that influenced the selection of the Blood Tribe community as a community of focus for the vulnerability assessment was because as an indigenous person I was especially interested in conducting the fieldwork in that community. The community of Patzún was selected because I am from the community, I continue to have deep roots in the community and have a long-standing interest in its wellbeing. Also, over the years I have conducted other research projects in Patzún that have investigated issues of changing agricultural practices and food consumption concerns and trends.  Taking the communities of the Blood Tribe and Patzún as case studies for an assessment of the vulnerability and adaptation of indigenous communities to climate change allows for detailed and in-depth examples of the experiences of the two communities to the phenomenon of climate change in a complex social environment (indigenous communities surrounded by non-indigenous communities, modernity and changing livelihoods). In addition, these communities are situated in opposite ends of the “development” continuum.  According to Yin (2009), using case studies in research is useful and appropriate when questions of “how” and “why” are being asked about a contemporary phenomenon and within a real life context, and where the investigator has no or little control over events that are being observed. Also, according to Flyvbjerg (2006), it is difficult to find predictive theories and universals in the study of human affairs, but that through case studies context-dependent knowledge can be found and which can be valuable to “understanding and learning” from something, rather than “proving” something.  As described earlier, the two communities are very different in their economic, social, cultural and institutional contexts; the communities are not “extreme or deviant cases” as defined by Flyvbjerg (2006), yet the difference between them is significant enough to consider them “maximum variation cases” as well as “critical cases.” They are “maximum variation cases” because their livelihoods are vastly different. The Patzún people have a diversity of livelihoods and their main livelihood, subsistence agriculture, is directly dependent on the ecosystem; whereas, the Blood Tribe people have fewer livelihood options and for the majority their  51 livelihood does not depend on the ecosystem. The size of the population of Patzún is about five times the size of the population of the Blood Tribe, whereas the territorial extension of the Blood Tribe is almost 8 times that of Patzún. Property ownership in Patzún is private –albeit with a small communal land, whereas in the Blood Tribe, property ownership is meant to be collective, but in practice a great portion of the land is used through “user rights,” which in essence constitute private ownership. Most people in Patzún have private ownership of land, even if this land is very small, but in the Blood Tribe only about 12 percent of the population has “user rights;” although 95 percent of the population of Patzún is indigenous, there are also nonindigenous people in the community, whereas in the Blood Tribe there are no non-indigenous people. Moreover, they are “critical cases” because they represent typical indigenous communities in each country, but by no means represent all of them, and therefore the analysis of their vulnerability and adaptive capacity to climate change can inform a great majority of the communities in each country. The potential understanding and learning gained from the assessment of the two communities, considering the combination of their attributes of “maximum variation cases” and “critical cases” can greatly inform other indigenous communities in Guatemala and Canada, as well as potentially indigenous communities elsewhere who may fall along the continuum that the two communities represent.  An in depth analysis of the two communities is also useful in identifying the forces that have shaped their particular physical, political, social, economic and cultural circumstances, and how these particularities influence their adaptation to climate change.  It was a very satisfying and rich experience to conduct ethnographic research in the Blood Tribe. Although my community of Patzún is dramatically different from the Blood Tribe, in many respects, I could readily identify with the Blood Tribe people. The challenges that the Blood Tribe people face as well as their aspirations toward better life conditions: better employment opportunities, self-sufficiency, social justice, freedom from discrimination and the ability to be agents in processes that influence their lives, are similar to the challenges and aspirations of the Patzún people. I believe that I was able to develop a trusting rapport with the people with whom I had the privilege to spend time. In general, I believe that the ethnographic work I conducted in  52 the community was largely inconspicuous, given my indigenous background and my physical appearance, which was of great advantage because the local people did not view me as an outsider. Some of the people even thought (assumed) that I was a member of their community and would come up and speak with me in Blackfoot. Although I did not speak Blackfoot, it seems that my physical appearance and perhaps attitude contributed to the trust and openness that most community members showed me. Clear instances of when my appearance and, possibly, attitude helped gain the trust of some of the respondents occurred when I would first unsuccessfully attempt to make interview appointments by telephone, but then successfully obtain and interview when I met face to face with the intended informant. I also had the privilege to enter peoples’ homes, sit at their tables and attend some of their traditional ceremonies. In this context, I believe that the responses I obtained from the people interviewed was achieved in an environment of trust as reflected in some of the very sensitive information they disclosed in my conversations with them.  Carrying out ethnographic research in Patzún, my own community, was a more familiar and less challenging endeavour. I was born and raised in the community of Patzún. Like other members of the community, I grew up helping my family work on a small farm where we cultivated crops for our own consumption. My familiarity with the livelihoods of the members of the community of Patzún, the challenges that they face and the potential future conditions that they will face, given the current social, economic and environmental conditions, has been developed from the first 18 years of my life growing up in the community and the subsequent frequent visits to my community after settling down in Canada. I live in Canada now, but over the years I have maintained a close connection with Patzún and I go back and live there whenever I can. Whenever I go to Patzún to visit, for a short or long term, I take the opportunity to live and partake in daily life just like any other member of the community. I help my father on the small family farm and participate in community events. In this way I have maintained a strong connection with the community. Since my connection with my community has been strong and frequent, the observations and interviews needed for this study were achieved by going about my daily life and routines in Patzún: working in the fields, meeting people in the streets, participating in events and talking to people in their homes. Although I do not live in Patzun, my desire to contribute to the well-being of the Patzún people continues. Whenever I have had the opportunity, I have conducted research projects in Patzún. My Master’s thesis dealt with the  53 effects of changing agricultural practices on the environment and the Patzun people. As a result, the interpretation and conclusions reached in this study may have been influenced by the obvious concern over the well-being of my community. 3.3 Research design and data collection methods In each community, the collection of primary data was done through ethnographic methods of indepth interviews, focus groups and participant observation. The number of interviews and focus group conducted in each community is provided in section 3.6 below.  In the Blood Tribe, data was collected over three visits to the community. During the first visit, in the summer of 2005, data was collected over three months through observations, interviews and focus groups with a cross section of the community, including Blood Tribe employees and men and women members of the community. During the second visit, in the summer of 2006, a short visit of 4-5 days to the community involved short discussions with key informants that served to clarify or elaborate on the findings from the previous visit. In the summer of 2008 a three-day third visit to the community involved interviews with key informants with the objective of gathering information focused on droughts and flood events that the community has been exposed to over the previous ten years, specifically to gather information on the droughts of 2001 and 2002, and the floods of 1995, 2002, and 2005. A fourth visit of two days to the community in the fall of 2008 involved the sharing of the findings from the vulnerability assessment of the community and from the in-depth study of the droughts and flood events to which the community had been exposed over the last decade. The fourth visit included the sharing of findings with Chief and Council and students in the local primary school, teachers and to the public.  For each of the visits, I could not live in the community because of the lack of living accommodation; in fact, there is shortage of housing in the community and many members live in crowded conditions. For the first visit, I found accommodation in a nearby community which allowed me to spend long days in the community collecting data/information, from early morning to late in the evenings. I was also able to participate in cultural and ceremonial events, engaged in conversations with community members and conducted interviews and focus groups. Interviews were conducted in the offices of Blood Tribe employees, at the homes of the residents and in the  54 local café; focus groups were conducted at the local Red Crow College and at the primary school building.  Data collection in Patzún was conducted over three months in the fall of 2007, one month in the fall of 2008 and during a short visit in February of 2010. For the data collection in Patzún, I lived at the home of my parents. I participated in daily activities in the community and collected information through observations, conversations, focus groups and interviews with a cross section of the community, including representatives of the municipal government and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) and men and women from the community. All of the conversations, interviews and focus groups were conducted in Kaqchikel, our local Mayan language.  The research design and interview guide (see appendix I for Interview Guide) for the Blood Tribe was developed with the collaboration of the various researchers that participated in the Institutional Adaptation to Climate Change project. The collaborative development of the research design and interview guide allowed the researchers in the IACC project to have a consistent approach to the research process and data collection. The same interview guide was used in Patzún.  The research guide was designed to elicit information that was deemed important for the research objectives, and the guide’s open-ended questions intended to allow the respondents to speak about issues of priority in the communities, their concerns, experiences of their social and economic conditions, climate change, and the measures they have taken, if any, to adapt, individual or collectively. The open-ended questions also allowed the respondents to elaborate on their values and perspectives on the effectiveness of the local formal institutions, government, informal support networks such as family and neighbours in confronting the various challenges faced by the community, including, but not exclusively, climate change, and their views on future risks and opportunities related to changes including climate change. 3.4 Sampling strategy An effort was placed on selecting respondents to represent a cross-section of the community to reflect the diversity of experiences, views, knowledge and insights into the issues pertinent to  55 climate change. In the Blood Tribe permission was obtained from the Lands Department in order to carry out data collection with a wide cross-section of the community. Once permission was obtained, interviews were conducted with key respondents from various Blood Tribe entities that overlook governance, human and environmental health, resource management, education, social services, culture and education. Recommendation on other potential respondents was obtained from the first few interviewees, and in essence, a snowball sampling followed from the recommendations obtained from the first interviewees. With this approach, the sample of respondents included a cross-section of the community that reflected a diversity of residents, employment status, gender, livelihoods, age, and cultural affiliation.  In Patzún to obtain a sample that reflected a cross section of the community, a snowball sampling strategy was not necessary. My familiarity and knowledge of the community allowed me to identify and approach a diversity of respondents that captured the range of employment, gender, livelihoods, age, and cultural affiliation, to correspond with the sample from the Blood Tribe. The data collection from the two communities was done following ethical standards to protect the privacy, welfare and rights of the participants in the research project, as mandated by the Behavioural Research Ethics Board of the University of British Columbia. The participants full and informed consent was obtained by informing them about the purpose of project and that their participation was voluntary and they could withdraw from participating at any time. They were also informed that their confidentiality and anonymity would be ensured by not linking the data they provided with their identity.  In both communities some of the information provided by the respondents was of a very sensitive nature, such as views on local government and personal and household data. To guarantee the anonymity of the respondents they were assigned a code in the following manner: for the Blood Tribe, BT1 refers to respondent number 1, BT2 to respondent number 2, and so on; for Patzún, PA1 refers to respondent number 1, PA2 refers to respondent number 2, and so on. 3.5 Data collection methods In both communities, the collection of official and documented data on the various social, environmental and economic characteristics was difficult. In the Blood Tribe, data on extreme events had not been collected until the mid-nineties and this data is by no means complete. In  56 addition, in the Blood Tribe there was a lack of documentation and monitoring of water consumption by households. Moreover, Blood Tribe members contest the figures by Statistics Canada on the community’s population and unemployment rates; Statistics Canada’s figures are significantly lower than the figures estimated by the Blood Tribe administration. It appears that there is not a clear explanation for the difference between the estimates by Statistics Canada and the Blood Tribe’s administration. Possible explanations could be that members of the Blood Tribe are constantly migrating, in and out of the community, and therefore the population goes up and down from one census to another (as can be seen in the following chapter). Also, in the Blood Tribe there are no mail deliveries to individual households, instead households have Postal Office boxes at the local Canada Post office, but because this locale is very small, only so many households can have a PO box at the local office. Many other households have PO boxes at nearby towns such as Lethbridge, Fort McLeod or Cardston. Some Blood Tribe members believe that Statistics Canada’s figures on the community’s population are based on the numbers of residents who have a PO Box on the reserve, while those who have PO boxes in other towns are not counted as Blood Tribe members. The underestimation of the Blood Tribe population can also explain the underestimation of the unemployment rate.  In the case of Patzún, the data collection of social, environmental and economic characteristics was even more challenging. In general, the collection of these types of data in Guatemala at the national and regional level has been poor, though it has improved over the last few years. Data of these characteristics for the town of Patzún are few and have only been collected in the last five years, and therefore it is not possible to compare present or recent data to data older than five years or estimate future trends. In Patzún data such as unemployment rate, individual and household income, land ownership, crop yield and water consumption per household are nonexistent.  In this context, documenting the impacts of climate change and adaptation measures in the two communities through in-depth interviews, focus groups and observations are of vital importance. 3.6 Interviews and focus groups During the first visit to the Blood Tribe community, 30 in-depth interviews and 1 focus group with 3 respondents were conducted. During the second visit, three key informants were  57 approached to clarify and confirm data obtained from the previous visit. In the third visit, eight Blood Tribe employees from the various departments and Band Council members were interviewed. The objective of the third visit was to obtain more in-depth information on the droughts and floods that have recently affected the community. For the third visit to the community, three other IACC researcher colleagues accompanied me and we shared with the community our findings related to droughts and floods as well as the broader findings on the vulnerability of the community to climate change.  In Patzún, 25 in-depth interviews, and 2 focus groups with 12 respondents, were conducted in 2007. In 2008, 1 focus group with five respondents and three in-depth interviews were conducted, and in 2010, brief conversations were conducted with municipal employees in order to verify and clarify some of the data collected from the previous visits.  3.7 Data analysis  All interviews were transcribed, coded and interpreted using an Nvivo software package. The coding of the transcribed interviews was guided by predetermined categories and for which “nodes” and “sub-nodes” were created in Nvivo, for example: under the node “EXPOSURE” were identified all of those passages of transcribed texts that are relevant to the “conditions, stresses, changes or forces that affect the respondent, his family and/or community, and local livelihoods” (Appendix II). Additionally, for each “node” a tree of “sub-nodes” was created to capture the specificities of each theme, for example the theme of “EXPOSURE” had a sub-node of “EXWATER” to capture “conditions, stresses, changes or forces related to water that affect the respondent, his family and community, and local livelihoods” (Appendix II).  Data analyzed include socio-economic conditions, climatologic conditions, present and potential future climate change impacts. Throughout the data analysis, the focus was on the broad theoretical propositions of the research, namely the vulnerability and adaptive capacity of two indigenous communities to climate change and the importance of social capital in their adaptation to climate change.  58 Chapter Four: Socio-economic profiles of the Blood Tribe and Patzún This chapter describes key biophysical, environmental, social and economic conditions in the Blood Tribe and Patzún. These key characteristics of the two communities provide some of the essential background needed for understanding their exposure/sensitivity, adaptive capacity, resilience and vulnerability to climate change.  4.1 Blood Tribe In this study, the community of interest is referred to as the Blood Tribe, which is the name the community is most commonly known for by members and non-members of the community. However, Indian and Northern Affairs Canada and Statistics Canada refer to this community as the Kainai Blood Indian Reserve 148, or Blood 148.  The Blood Tribe is a Blackfoot community located in the South Saskatchewan River Basin (SSRB) and is a member of the Blackfoot Confederacy, which includes the North Peigan and Siksika communities in southern Alberta, Canada, and the South Peigan in Montana, United States. In 1877, The Blood Tribe and two other Blackfoot Confederacy tribes of Piikani (Peigans) and the Siksika (Blackfoot) together with the Tsuu Tina (Sarcee) and the Stoneys tribes signed a member Treaty No. 7 with the Government of Canada (Treaty 7 Elders, 1995; Blood Tribe Lands Department, 2008). The traditional territory of the Blackfoot Confederacy encompassed a vast area that was bounded by the North Saskatchewan River to the north, the Yellowstone River to the south and the Rocky Mountains to the west and the Sand Hills in Saskatchewan. The Blood Tribe is one of Canada’s largest reserves and has significant natural assets that include agricultural land, oil, gas, minerals and water. However, like other First Nations communities in Canada, most of the people of the Blood Tribe confront difficult social and economic conditions. Unemployment figures in 2005 and 2008—according to some members of the community—was as high as 80%, housing conditions are poor and overcrowded, alcoholism and drug addiction are rampant and the prospects for economic development opportunities are almost non-existent. Over the past decade, impacts of floods and droughts have had adverse consequences on the community’s farming operations, homes, roads and drinking water supplies.  59 Traditionally our Blackfoot territory extended to the North Saskatchewan River to Yellowstone Park, and from the Rocky Mountains to Saskatchewan border, that was our traditional territory; and this is some of the richest land in the world. All the oil comes from around Edmonton and that area, and that should all be ours rightfully…so we have been stripped of a lot of our resources, our pride, because we can’t get a job, and it’s a vicious cycle I am talking about. (BT8, pers. comm., 2005)  One of the main issues in the community is the lack of employment; we are basically living in third world conditions here...There is only a certain number of dollars that come into the reserve on a yearly basis…I don't know what the current financial transfer agreement is with the federal government... You see, our treaty did not have a cap on it. We had under the treaty, under the true spirit of the treaty, that the Queen, in exchange for sharing some of the land—we did not surrender our land—she was going to share the land with us. Because of that, she was going to care for us as long as the sun shone, the grass grew and the rivers flowed. That meant medication [health care], education, basic living essentials (housing, water, whatever); but that has since stopped, the federal government has put a cap on it, a cap on the services (BT1, pers. comm., 2005)  Archaeological evidence suggests that about 11,000 years ago buffalo had adapted well to the postglacial conditions in North America, and particularly in the Great Plains, east of the Rockies (Figure 4.1). Over this extensive territory with grasslands and aspen forests buffalo thrived together with other large herbivores such as deer, antelopes. However, buffalo adapted well and it estimated that there were around 50 to 60 million buffalo on the Great Plains before European contact. In this ecosystem subject to heat and drought, ancestors of the Blackfoot and many other native groups forged a livelihood based on hunting buffalo (Bryan, 2005).  The successful adaptation of the buffalo to the grasslands had great importance to the human populations that procured their livelihood in this ecosystem. The people were nomads, following the movements of the buffalo, and their survival depended on the survival of the buffalo. The buffalo was vital to the peoples’ survival because it provided them with food from the meat; clothing, shelter shoes, and blankets from the hide; tools from the bones; and fuel from dried dung (Bryan, 2005).  According to archaeological findings, ancestors of the Blackfoot people have been in the region at least 5,500 years (Bryan, 2005). At the UNESCO World Heritage, site of Head-Smashed-in Buffalo Jump evidence such as buffalo bones and remains of hunting tools suggests that four  60 Figure 4.1: Map of North America’s northwestern plains  Geography, University of Alberta (Source: Bryan, 2005).  successive groups of people used the site for killing buffalo by driving them off the cliff (Bryan, 2005). People moved in small groups of extended families, but when they were hunting buffalo, the men were the main actors, although women helped with butchering and preserving the meat. During the hunt, men from the various groups hunted collectively and in a cooperative manner (Wissler, 1920).  Since men were the main protagonists in the hunt, part of their identity and self-esteem came from the courage and skill required for the killing of the buffalo. At the same time, as nomadic groups of people they were often forced to protect hunting grounds and their encampments from other groups, this task was also the domain of the men, and hence their strong warrior identity. Boys as young as twelve years old accompanied the men to participate in hunts and skirmishes (Billson, 1991).  As nomadic, hunters and gatherers, the Blackfoot people had claims and rights of use over territories, but they did not have individual ownership over of the land. Without individual ownership over the land, in times of need an individual’s well-being depended on the assistance of the collective with such things as food, tools, utensils, horses and other such things. Assisting  61 other members in need by giving away individual property ensured the well-being of the recipient and social distinction for the giver (Wissler, 1920).  Climate change and variability in the form of droughts and floods has a long history in what is now the SSRB (Sauchyn and Skinner, 2001). There is evidence however, that prior to the arrival of Europeans indigenous people in the SSRB area, including ancestors of the Blackfoot people, had developed successful adaptation strategies that allowed them to cope with the effects of climate variability. For example, in times of droughts, indigenous people were able to hunt buffalo through traditional pedestrian techniques because they were able to predict and to a certain extent control the movement of buffalo herds. They predicted the movement of buffalo herds because they learned the location of water sources that would not dry up during drought spells and hunted the buffalo that sought out the green grass and drinking water available from these water sources. They also recognized the importance of ponds and reservoirs created by beavers in times of droughts. Water trapped in these ponds and reservoirs provided water supply for the buffalo herds. By not exploiting the beaver population they were able to control and manage some of the water sources and hence predict the movement of the buffalo herds (Daschuk and Marchildon, 2005; Daschuk, 2009).  With the arrival of Europeans in the 18th century, the type and means of livelihood for indigenous people underwent profound changes. With the use of horses and guns to hunt buffalo, indigenous people no longer needed to know the location of water sources and did not need to maintain beaver populations to preserve water sources and thus predict the movement of buffalo. As the type and means of their livelihood changed, their vulnerability to climatic variability such as droughts increased (Daschuk and Marchildon, 2005; Daschuk, 2009).  Prior to the arrival of Europeans, the Blackfoot people suffered hardships from the harsh environment and their survival depended on their ability to coexist with the buffalo. Despite their seemingly precarious conditions, they were able to survive and at times even thrive. With the arrival of Europeans, however, their way of life experienced a seismic shift. With the rapid decimation of the buffalo, their way of life also rapidly changed from one of hunting, gathering and roaming over a vast territory, to one where they were confined to a sliver of that territory.  62 The following year after the signing of Treaty 7, people from the Blood Tribe recall it being the year when the buffalo vanished (Dempsey, 1979).  For indigenous people in the SSRB the incremental loss of their traditional livelihood and a decreased dependence on their natural resources for their survival is today almost complete. At present, the well-being of most of the Blood Tribe people is directly related to the annual transfer of funds by the Federal government for housing, health, education, social welfare, economic development and various other needs. These were funds promised upon the signing of treaty 7 in 1877.3 Few Blood Tribe people rely on the health of their environment and on the in-depth knowledge of their surroundings. The disruption of the Blood Tribe people’s traditional livelihood, combined with increased dependence on Federal government funds and the impacts of government policies such as the Residential Schools and the Indian Act have generated high levels of poverty, unemployment, poor housing and other hardships, resulting in great social problems including violence, addictions and poor health. These social problems and issues are today the primary concerns of the Blood Tribe because they affect the great majority of them on a daily basis. Although floods and droughts have affected the community, only some of the people have been affected directly. Those affected would have been people whose homes were flooded, a road they relied on was washed out, or had crops lost due to water shortages or flooding. Consequently, for most people in the Blood Tribe finding solutions to poverty, unemployment, housing and so on are of greater priority than adaptations to climate change. 4.1.1 Geographic setting The Blood Tribe is located in southern Alberta, with a territory of 1414.03 square kilometres, or 141,354.671 hectares. The territory consists of two parcels of land: Reserve No. 148 and Timber Limits No. 148A. Reserve No. 148 is bounded by three rivers: the Belly River to the west, the St. Mary River to the east and the Oldman River to the north. The capital of the Blood Tribe, Standoff, and the six other communities of Moses Lake, Levern, Old Agency, Fish Creek, Fort Whoop Up and Bullhorn are located on Reserve No. 148. Timber Limits No. 148A, with an area 3  The annual funds transferred to the Blood Tribe by the Canadian federal government amounts to $120 million. Of this, $117 million is destined for the social needs in the community and $3 million is allocated to economic development (BT2 pers. comm. 2008).  63 of 1940.467 hectares, 19.41 square kilometres, is located in the foothills of the Rocky Mountains; this area is forested and members of the Blood Tribe use it for recreation, hunting and gathering (Blood Tribe Web Page ND, Blood Tribe/Kanai 2004, Statistics Canada 2005; SouthGrow Regional Initiative 2008). The Blood Tribe reserve is located in the Palliser Triangle4 (Figure 4.2). An arid and mixed grassland eco-region characterizes the Palliser Triangle; it is the driest part of the Canadian Prairies (Wittrock et al., 2008). 4.1.2 Climate Records from two climate stations located near the community show that the northern area of the Blood Tribe reserve has a slightly higher annual average temperature and receives less annual average precipitation than the southern area. The Cardston climate station, located near the southern part of the reserve, shows that on average it receives 170 mm more of annual average precipitation than the Lethbridge climate station, located near the northern part of the reserve (Table 4.1). The temperature in the winter is 1.1ºC warmer in Cardston than in Lethbridge, however in the spring, summer and fall the temperatures are 0.8ºC, 1.3ºC and 0.2ºC cooler, respectively (Figure 4.1 and Figure 4.2) (Wittrock et al., 2008).  The Blood Tribe is in the Chinook Belt and Chinook winds, which are strong and warm winds that create weather systems characterized by dramatic temperature fluctuations, affect the community. Temperature extremes have been recorded in the area. The highest temperature of 39.0ºC was recorded at Cardston in 2007, while at Lethbridge the highest temperature of 39.4ºC was recorded in 1973. The record minimum temperature of -41.7ºC at Cardston was in 1929, whereas at Lethbridge the record minimum temperature was -42.8ºC in 1968 and 1950 (Wittrock et al., 2008). The average annual wind speed at Lethbridge is 18.2 km/h, but December is the windiest month with an average of 21.2 km/h. Peak wind gusts of 120 km/h are common; the maximum gust recorded was 171 km/h on November 19, 1962 (Wittrock et al., 2008).  4  The Palliser Triangle is in the “rain-shadow” of the Rocky Mountains. It is north of the American border, bounded by Cartwright, Manitoba, Lloydminster, Saskatchewan and Calgary and Cardston Alberta. It was reported by Captain John Palliser that the land was not suitable for agricultural settlement (Nemanishen, 1998).  64 Figure 4.2: Blood Tribe study area map  (Stratton, 2005) Table 4.1: Average temperature and precipitation for Cardston and Lethbridge Station  Climate Parameter  Winte r (DJF) *  Spring (MAM) *  Summ er (JJA)*  Fall (SON)*  Yearl y  Daily Average (ºC) Daily Maximum (ºC) Daily Minimum (ºC) Rainfall (mm) Snowfall (cm) Total Precipitation (mm)  -5.1 1.0 -11.3 0.5 86.7 87.2  4.9 11.4 -1.5 85.5 78.4 164.1  15.8 23.2 8.3 189.3 0.0 189.3  5.8 12.5 -0.9 61.7 54.6 116.4  5.4 12.0 -1.3 337.0 219.8 557.0  Cardston  Lethbridge Daily Average (ºC) -6.2 5.7 17.1 6.0 5.7 Daily Maximum (ºC) -0.2 12.4 24.4 12.8 12.3 Daily Minimum (ºC) -12.2 -1.1 9.7 -0.7 -1.1 Rainfall (mm) 1.0 66.9 155.6 47.6 271.1 Snowfall (cm) 54.2 45.8 0.8 29.8 130.5 Total Precipitation (mm) 45.9 108.8 156.3 75.4 386.3 *DJF = December, January February; MAM = March, April, May; JJA = June July August; SON = September, October, December, (Environment Canada 2008a) (Wittrock et al., 2008)  65 Figure 4.3 and Figure 4.4 show the seasonal temperature and precipitation and their deviation from the average (calculated from the 1971-2000 period) at Cardston and Lethbridge from 1994 to 2006.  Figure 4.3: Cardston’s seasonal climate for 1994 to 2006  (Data Source: Environment Canada 2008a) (Wittrock et al., 2008)  According to Alberta Agriculture, Food and Rural Development, periodic floods and droughts have historically affected the region of Alberta where the Blood Tribe is located. Two previous severe droughts occurred in 1936 and 1943; however, in 2001 southern Alberta suffered the most severe drought than in any other season in the previous 74 years (Alberta Agriculture, Food and Rural Development).  The historical susceptibility of the area to floods and droughts is clearly shown in a study on extreme events in the Blood Tribe area over the period between 1995 and 2006 conducted in 2008 (Wittrock et al.,). Figure 4.1 and Figure 4.2 show that during the winter of 1994/95 precipitation was below average whereas temperature was above average. In the spring and early summer of 1995, however, precipitation was above average, 72% above average at the Cardston station and 28% at the Lethbridge station. From the fall of 1998 to the winter of 2001/02 was  66 very dry because precipitation was below average whereas temperature was mostly above average. In the summer of 2002 both the Lethbridge and Cardston stations recorded extreme precipitation events, especially from June 8th and to June 10th when 70% to 80% of the average rain for the month fell during those three days (Wittrock et al., 2008).  Figure 4.4: Lethbridge’s seasonal climate for 1994 to 2006  (Data Source: Environment Canada 2008a) (Wittrock et al., 2008) Figure 4.5 shows the year-to-year fluctuation of extreme events in the region. At Cardston, above annual average temperatures occurred in 1996, 1997, 1998 and every year from 2001 to 2006; above annual average precipitation occurred in 1995, 2000 and 2003. At Lethbridge, above annual average temperatures occurred in 1998, 1999, 2001, and 2006, above average annual precipitation occurred in 2002 and 2005.  67 Figure 4.5: Annual temperature (difference from average) and precipitation (percent difference from average) for 1995 to 2006 for Lethbridge and Cardston  Source: Environment Canada 2008a (Wittrock et al., 2008)  4.1.3 Future climate Climatologists working for the Institutional Adaptations to Climate Change project constructed future scenarios of climate change and model stream flows for the South Saskatchewan River Basin (SSRB). From these scenarios, Figure 4.6 maps the precipitation and temperature for the SSRB for 1961–90 and the 2050s and shows that by mid-21st century there will be an increase in temperature and variable precipitation (Lapp et al., 2009). Also, in the Institutional Adaptation to Climate Change (IACC) Integration Report, the broad conclusion reached for the future climate scenarios in the SSRB is that: All climate change scenarios for the mid-21st century suggest increased temperature and variable precipitation for the SSRB [as illustrated in Figure 4.4], temperature and precipitation maps of the basin for 1961–90 and the 2050s. These climate changes favour most human activities in the basin, depending very much, however, on the distribution or timing of the extra heat and water. One of the most certain outcomes of global warming for the SSRB is shorter and wetter winters, and longer and generally drier summers. The surplus water in winter and spring will be lost during more days of evaporation and transpiration by plants during a longer frost-free growing season (IACC Integration Report, 2009, p. 19)  68 Figure 4.6: Annual temperature (top) and precipitation (bottom) for the SSRB Annual Temperature – 2050s  1961-1990  o  C -2  -1  0  1  2  3  4  5  6  7  Annual Precipitation – 2050s  8  9  10 11 12  1961-1990  mm  200  300  400  500  600  700  800  900  1000  The baseline (1961–90) conditions are mapped on the right. These median scenarios were derived from the Canadian Global Climate Model (CGCM) version 3.1/T47 and greenhouse gas emission scenario B1(2) (IACC Integration Report, 2009)  4.1.4 Water supply and resources  The three rivers that border the community, the Belly, the Saint Mary and the Oldman Rivers are vital water suppliers for the various irrigation districts in southern Alberta. Large dams sited on the Saint Mary and the Oldman Rivers have helped to regulate water supply for the irrigation  69 district, capturing water flow during the spring and early summer and releasing needed water during the summer time. The Belly and the Oldman Rivers also have electro-generating plants.  The Blood Tribe surrendered a portion of their territory when the dam on the Saint Mary River was constructed; this surrendered territory was flooded by the reservoir. In exchange for the surrendered land, the governments of Canada and Alberta provided two thirds of the funding for an irrigation project run by the Blood Tribe Agricultural Project (BTAP). The funding financed the construction of a diversion canal from the Belly River and irrigation pivots for irrigating 10,000 hectares (BT6 pers. comm., 2005). To obtain the water from the Belly River, BTAP has been allocated a water withdrawal license by the government of Alberta. Like other water licensees in Alberta, BTAP is subject to the “first in time, first in right” water allocation policy, which in practice means that holders of older water licenses have the first right to withdraw water from the river than holders of newer water licenses. In times when water is scarce, first in time license holders have the first priority in withdrawing water from the rivers and have no obligation to share with newer license holders. Just like other water users in Alberta, the Blood Tribe has abided, so far, to the “first in time, first in right” policy. However, the Blood Tribe has a claim in the Canadian Courts stating that it never gave up its rights to water resources through un-extinguished Aboriginal rights and therefore claims the banks and beds of the three rivers that border its territory (Blood Tribe submission to the International Joint Commission, 2004). With this claim in place, which has not been settled and remains in the Courts, the Blood Tribe do not consider themselves just another water user, subject to the Alberta water allocation policy. Instead, they claim ownership over ½ of the river banks and beds, and rights to the river flow of all three rivers that border and form part of their territory.  Drinking water for about 80 % of the Blood Tribe comes from groundwater supplies. The communities of Standoff, Levern, Old Agency, Fish Creek, Fort Whoop Up and Bullhorn all have either community or private wells that supply water for domestic consumption. The majority of Blood Tribe households do not have their own wells; they have cisterns that are periodically filled with water from community wells and hauled by trucks supplied by the Blood Tribe administration (BT3 pers. comm., 2005). Members are required to pay the trucking cost of  70 hauling the water. According to the Housing Department, there are 1280 homes on the Blood Tribe reserve; about 1000 of the 1280 have water cisterns. Five hundred of the 1000 homes with cisterns are linked directly to a water line, but for the other 500 homes, water for the cisterns has to be hauled by truck. About 300-400 homes have private wells. Members of the community of Moses Lake, which is adjacent to the town of Cardston, obtain water for their domestic use from the municipality of Cardston (BT2 pers. comm., 2005). 4.1.5 Social and economic characteristics Population According to Statistics Canada, the population of the Blood Tribe in 2006—the latest official figure—was 4,177 people, which is significantly lower than the 9,000 to 10,000 people estimated by Blood Tribe officials. The population estimated by the Blood Tribe administration correlates with the 2008 estimates by the South Growth Regional Initiatives—which is an alliance of 27 south-central Alberta communities—of 10,062 people of the Blood Tribe. Possible reasons for the discrepancy between Statistics Canada figures and the Blood Tribe Administration’s estimates were addressed in the section of Data Collection Methods in chapter Three.  The population is spread out in various communities over the land base: Standoff, Moses Lake, Lavern, Old Agency, Fish Creek, Fort Whoop Up and Bullhorn.  Standoff is the largest community and it is where the band administration is located. Also located in Standoff include facilities such as a recreation centre, a rodeo arena, a gas station, a café and small grocery store, the police and fire station, and several buildings that house the various band Departments.  71 Figure 4.7: Blood Tribe Reserve and approximate community locations  Fort Whoop up Fish Creek  Standoff  Old Agency  Bullhorn  Levern  Moses Lake  Base Map Source: Google Earth Pro 2006 (Wittrock et al., 2008) Note: Reserve boundary is outlined in red; Irrigation area is outlined in blue  Table 4.2: Estimated populations for each community, 2008 Estimated Percent of the Location or Name Number of Total** Members* Standoff 1,800 – 2,400 28.0 Moses Lake 1,400 16.4 Levern 700 8.2 Old Agency Area 2,000 23.4 Bullhorn / St. Mary’s/ St. 1,500 17.5 Paul’s Fort Whoop Up 200 2.3 Fish Creek 350 4.2 Estimated Total 7,950 -- 8,550 100.0 Population *Population estimates by Blood Tribe Officials interviewed in 2008 ** Estimated at the upper range of population (Wittrock et al., 2008)  72 The community of Moses Lake located at the south end of the reserve borders the town of Cardston, and because of this proximity, the people of Moses Lake obtain their drinking water from the municipality of Cardston. In Standoff, Moses Lake and Levern the homes are physically concentrated and there are defined community centres; in the other communities, however, the homes are spread out over large areas and there are no defined centres.  Due to the unavailability of data and the variability in the data that is available, it is difficult to determine a population trend for the community. As can be seen in Figure 4.8, data from Statistics Canada fluctuates from one census period to another, for example, from a population of 4,315 in 1996 to a population of 3,852 in 2001, a decrease in 463 people, whereas in 2006 the population increased to 4,177.  Figure 4.8: Population of the Blood Tribe, 1991-2006  Population of the Blood Tribe 1991-2006  Source: Compiled from Statistics Canada (2008) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (Undated)  73 Age composition Figure 4.9 shows that the proportion of the population of the Blood Tribe younger than 24 years is much larger compared to the province of Alberta, whereas the proportion of population older than 75 years is much smaller. Also, when compared to the province of Alberta, the population density of the Blood Tribe in 2006 was less than Alberta’s; the Blood Tribe’s density was three people per square kilometre, whereas Alberta’s was 5.1 people per square kilometre.  Figure 4.9: Age distribution of population at Blood Tribe Reservation and province of Alberta, 2006  Proportion of total  0.12 0.10 0.08 0.06 0.04 0.02 0.00 0-4  5-9  5-14 15-19 20-24 25-34 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85 and over  Age categories Blood Tribe  Alberta  Source: Statistics Canada, 2007. Education levels Residents of the Blood Tribe have lower levels of education compared to residents of the province of Alberta. Figure 4.10 shows that half of the Blood Tribe people over the age of 15 years have not had any formal education, whereas the proportion for Alberta was 23%. The proportion of people in the Blood Tribe in the other four categories of education levels is lower than the levels for the Alberta. For example, only 8% of the members of the Blood Tribe labour force had any university degrees, as against 21% for the province.  74 Figure 4.10: Educational attainment of the Blood Tribe and Alberta populations, 2006  University  College  Trade Cert.  High School  None  0  0.1  0.2  0.3  0.4  0.5  0.6  Proportion of Total Blood Tribe  Alberta  Source: Statistics Canada, 2007. Blood Tribe Housing The housing stock in the Blood Tribe increased slightly from 980 units in 2001 to 1005 units in 2006, shown in Figure 4.3. Statistics Canada figures show that almost all homes are singledetached homes. However, according to the Blood Tribe Housing Department, the Blood Tribe reserve has 1,218 homes; the largest proportion of these homes, 903, are rural—scattered throughout the reserve—and 165 are in the Standoff town site. At Standoff, there are also 14 special needs apartments and 35 trailers available for renting (Wittrock et al., 2008).  An excerpt from an interview with an employee of the Blood Housing Department reflects the housing challenges observed in the community: dilapidated homes, overcrowding and homes in great need of repair: “In order to provide adequate housing for the community we need another 3,000 homes and that’s just to separate some of the families that are living 2 to 3 families per house, and that’s for our future too. Our kids need a place to go. Right now our children are all moving to cities; we are losing them to the outside when this is their home, they should be able to stay, but we can’t build houses fast enough because we don’t have the money” (BT2 pers. comm., 2005).  75 Table 4.3: Blood Tribe occupied private dwelling by type, 2001 and 2006 Occupied Private Dwellings by Type 2001 % of 2006 % of total total Apartments 0 0 25 2 Detached Duplexes 0 0 0 0 Movable Dwellings 10 1 20 2 Other single attached house 0 0 0 0 Row and semi-detached house 0 0 0 0 Single-detached house 965 99 960 96 Total number of occupied private dwellings 980 100.0 1,005 100 0 Private dwellings, owned 590 60 520 52 Private Dwellings, rented 255 26 155 15 Source: Statistics Canada 2001 and 2006 Census (numbers may not add up due to rounding)  Statistics Canada (2008) figures, as shown in Table 4.4, indicate that 60.5% of all dwellings require major repairs, and that on-reserve occupancy rate per home is much larger, 5.7 people, compared to the national average of 2.5 people per home (Wittrock et al., 2008). These numbers clearly support the statements of the Blood Tribe Housing Department employee (BT2) interviewed.  Table 4.4: Blood Tribe selected housing characteristics Number of Dwellings constructed before 1986 710 Dwellings requiring major repairs (% of Total) Average Number people per Dwelling 5.7 Dwellings with more than one person per room (% of Total) Source: Statistics Canada (2008)  61 16 Blood Tribe broad socio-economic forces Although the defining moment for the dramatic change in the life of the Blood Tribe may have occurred with the creation of the reservation and the concurrent vanishing of the buffalo, the forces behind these changes had been set in motion many years before. As English and French fur traders were moving west in the 18th century, native people began trading fur for metal goods, tobacco and gun. Initially the Blackfoot people did not enter into the trading business with the Europeans, as there were hardly any fur-bearing animals on their territories. However, fur traders realized the usefulness of buffalo hides and pemmican, dried buffalo meat and berries, which  76 allowed them to travel long distances and soon the demand for these goods became irresistible to the Blackfoot people (Bryan, 2005). Trading pemmican for guns accelerated the killing of buffalos: the more pemmican was traded the more guns became accessible to the Blackfoot people, and consequently the more buffalos were killed (Bryan, 2005).  The second European factor in accelerating the decimation of the buffalo was the arrival of the horse. The use of the horse in the Americas began with the arrival of the Spanish in what is now Latin America in the early 1500s. The use of the horse moved slowly northwards and eventually reaching the Blackfoot people. The use of horses and guns was the lethal combination that decimated the buffalo (Bryan, 2005).  Certainly, the forces at play in the changing economic landscape of the Blackfoot people were the increasing European settlers’ demand for land and resources, which led to the destruction of the Blackfoot’s livelihood and locally based economy.  The trading of pemmican for guns and other European items by the Blackfoot is an emblematic beginning of a capitalist economy in what is now the Canadian Prairies. Rich with agricultural lands and resources, the Prairies continues to produce and supply food and resources, but destined more for distant markets than for local consumption and for many First Nation people in the area pemmican is but a distant memory.  Like other First Nations in Canada, the socio-economic challenges that the Blood Tribe community experiences can be traced to the past and present policies by the Canadian government. These policies have largely determined the socio-economic dynamics within the community itself as well as its relationship with the larger Canadian society. The dispossession of their lands and resources has unquestionably marginalized First Nations social and economically, but other policies were implemented to facilitate and rationalize this dispossession. Many First Nation members contend that policies such as the Indian Act and Residential Schools were deliberately designed to assimilate the indigenous population into the mainstream Canadian society (Coates, 2008; The Royal Commission on Aboriginal Peoples, 1996). These policies and their consequences persist through the control of the First Nations’ governance systems and economies, and even, until recently the, the control of their traditions and ceremonies.  77 The Indian Act According to Fleras (1996), the Indian Act, created in 1876, has allowed the Canadian government to take control over First Nations’ political structure, identity, resources, land tenure system and economic development. The Indian Act determines who is considered an Indian in Canada. Section six of the Indian Act outlines that only those people who are registered in the Indian Register are considered Status Indians. People with Indian Status have the rights to vote for band Council and Chief, use, own and inherit band property and to benefit from allocated band (Indian Act, 1985).  The enactment of the Indian Act in 1876 by the Canadian government, one year before the signing of Treaty 7, intended to “civilize, protect and assimilate” indigenous people. The intent was to integrate indigenous people into the Canadian society. Through the Indian Act the Canadian government to manage the Blackfoot’s land, resources, and making them become wards of the state (Regular, 1999).  Although the Blood Tribe with their labour, land and resources were key actors in the economy of southern Alberta toward the end of the 19th and beginning of the 20th century, the Canadian government’s policies of restriction and paternalism regulated and constricted the Blood Tribe’s economic activities. For the Blood Tribe, once they were confined to their reserve they embarked on working their land for the production of hay and crops. They became successful farmers, but the Indian Act, which dictated that those who bought crops and hay from the Blood Tribe farmers needed to have a permit, regulated their operations. The requirement of a permit for buying agricultural products from the Blood Tribe denied the Blood Tribe farmers the opportunity to trade their products. The restrictive policies placed on the Blood Tribe farmers may have been the response to the complaints of non-Blood Tribe farmers. There is evidence that in the 1880s, ranchers and farmers nearby the Blood Tribe reserve were complaining that the assistance the Canadian government was giving Blood Tribe farmers gave them an unfair advantage (Regular, 1999).  Inside their own reserve, some of the Blood Tribe people became ranchers, farmers and coal miners. Some became successful farmers and acquired their own machinery that enabled them to  78 take on contracts with white ranchers to supply them with hay (Regular, 1999). Although the Blood Tribe farmers had to overcome the challenges of government restrictions and losses due to droughts, by the early 1900s the Blood Tribe people were raising more than 4000 cattle, over 3600 horses and were one of the leading reserves in the production of wheat and oats (Wilson, 1973).  Finding it difficult to engage in agriculture on their reserve, Blood Tribe members worked as labourers for farmers outside their serve. Despite the Pass System, which was designed to prevent Prairie First Nation people from leaving their reserves and prevent them from “conspiring” against Canadian authorities (Royal commission on Aboriginal Peoples, 1991), many Blood Tribe people obtained passes to work outside the reserve as labourers in nearby ranches and beet farms (Regular, 1999).  To the Blood Tribe people, the Indian Act has had a great and, for the most part, negative effect on their life.  And then there were different policies…to make us “more independent,” farming came into play in this area, and its development was quite surprising...There were numerous people on this reserve who were quite wealthy in those days and who farmed their own land, had their own equipment, and people talk about that because here they were, living in a teepee but yet they had all this farm equipment, horses to run the equipment, processing machines, all of that they owned. And we go back even in the 30s, there were a few individuals out here who were driving vehicles, whereas some of the surrounding areas of McLeod, McGrath, of non-native people were still using horses and buggies; this was taking place. So the surrounding communities were struggling with their farms; and a lot of it came back to the collectiveness (of the Blood Tribe) where many family groups would farm large areas, their piece of land, and they would work together that way. And then the surrounding communities would have the individual way of thinking, while the collectiveness was the successful, the native people in this area. But then they [non-native people] started writing to the government and the Indian Agents and said, “these Indians are doing better than we are.” So, in turn they changed the policy again…our crop couldn’t be sold in the open market anymore, it had to go through the Indian Agent, and once it went through the Indian Agent you were only given a certain percentage of the value of the crop (BT23, pers. comm., 2005). And as we mentioned, the men went off to work and in groups, and provided for one another; if one person got paid and bought groceries, then when the next person gets paid buys the groceries, so they all pitched in. But then when welfare came it created individuality, and severed that collective thought of doing things, and it even goes back to  79 the time of the rations given out by Indian agents through signing the treaties. At one time…to show that collectiveness, that sharing, they had give-aways, and they would have a give-away dance, different families would host a give-away dance, or similar to the potlatches in BC, and similar to the Crees—the Crees still do it today—they have give-away dances, we don’t have them anymore (BT23 pers. comm.. 2005). The Indian Act governs everything: ownership of property, the rules of people coming in, it’s all in the Indian Act (BT11 pers. comm., 2005).  A combination of factors caused the decline of farming and ranching in the Blood Tribe. The restriction by the government on who was allowed to buy agricultural products from the Blood Tribe farmers was one factor. Another factor was the impact of extreme weather. The combination of extreme weather and restrictive policies caused the Blood Tribe people to lose cattle to starvation; in 1917, the Blood Tribe ranchers had 17,000 cattle but by 1920, they only had 1200. Extreme droughts during the Great Depression of the 1930s effectively decimated the agricultural initiatives of the Blood Tribe People (Regular, 1999).  Even at present, the Federal government continues to dictate and restrict the exchange of goods by some First Nation people with non-First Nation people, as clearly outlined in Section 32 of the Indian Act:  A transaction of any kind whereby a band or a member thereof purports to sell, barter, exchange, give or otherwise dispose of cattle or other animals, grain or hay, whether wild or cultivated, or root crops or plants or their products from a reserve in Manitoba, Saskatchewan or Alberta, to a person other than a member of that band, is void unless the superintendent approves the transaction in writing (Indian Act, 1985). Residential Schools Réame and Macklem (1994) trace the introduction of Residential Schools in First Nations in Canada to the mid-19th century. According to Réame and Macklem (1994), one of the main reasons for the establishment of Residential Schools was to reflect policy requirements for “settling down” in reservations the nomadic life of First Nations, while at the same time freeing up lands for settlement and economic development for the benefit of non-natives.  80 The legacy of this policy is the deep and traumatic range of issues that First Nations nowadays continue to try to come to terms with. The consequences of the forceful internship of First Nations into Roman Catholic, Anglican, and Presbyterian schools, away from their parents and communities and the prohibition of their language and traditional practices, continue to reverberate in the Blood Tribe community.  The residential school had a big part in it (socio-economic condition), our identities all were taken away. I was in Residential school for 10 years, it was like prison…and of course, it has an effect on everybody. For myself, I have friends that we were in the same group, and that are no longer here; they have died of alcoholism and car accidents. I was just talking with my wife a few days ago, we were looking at some of the people I grew up with, I would say that there are only about 3 or 4 left out of a group of 20, and the really close friends, they are gone (BT11 pers. comm. 2005). The Indian Act and the consequences of residential schools has given rise to communities that face great socio-economic challenges—although they were once proud, independent and capable people—similar to the poorest and marginalized sectors of societies found in Developing countries. The challenges that prevail in First Nation communities, and which were clearly reflected in the interviews with the Blood Tribe people, include alcohol and drug abuse, family and community violence, suicides, tragic deaths and gangs; all resulting in an apparent loss of social cohesion and the breakdown of community networks. As you uncover an issue, it brings on other issues and you get overwhelmed by the need. For example, the Residential Schools, we first started with a drug and alcohol abuse counselling program, but as we got deeper into the counselling sessions, it became apparent that the people were into drugs and alcohol to self-medicate, so we asked why? So the issue kept on going back to the Residential Schools and we started digging into that. So we started to identify the behaviour associated to Residential Schools, why do people drop out of school? Once people drop out of school, there is a lack of education, a lack of marketable skills. Once you don’t have that then you don’t have the economics to have a proper house, you don’t have the education, the awareness of proper hygiene, of proper maintenance, and then without education their children don’t get the push to finish their education, so all of a sudden you have a cycle there. So that’s the biggest challenge, when you uncover an issue there are other issues associated (BT14 pers. comm. 2005). The Indian Act continues to dictate the management of land, oil and gas and water resources found on the territory of the Blood Tribe. Long (1990, p. 52) notes that through the Indian Act the Blood Tribe defers control of their resources to the Canadian government, which administers “royalties and other revenues from natural gas and oil production on reserve lands.” At the same  81 time, the Blood Tribe people “receive more than 80 per cent of their annual revenue from the federal government in the form of funds allocated for specific purposes.” Economic Activity Employment opportunities Lack of access to capital appears to be one of the major challenges for the Blood Tribe community in its efforts to implement community economic development. The difficulty in accessing loans for business start-ups and economic development exacerbates the cycle of poverty, unemployment and low levels of education and skills. Although the community as a whole is impoverished, there is evidence and a feeling in the community of a definite social stratification. Some of the community members who have “occupancy rights” to the land (10-12 percent of the people have occupancy rights) and those who are employed, largely through a handful of jobs in the Band’s departments and agencies, constitute the sector of “haves,” while the unemployed majority that relies on government assistances are the “have-nots.” Several of the respondents felt that the cleavage between the have and have-nots is exacerbated by the concentration of decision making power in the hands of families with historical influence and power. It is felt that members of the community that have “connections” with the Chief and Council and head of departments often have greater chances for employment, housing, home repairs and renovations.  As the largest reserve in Canada, the Blood Tribe has agricultural land, oil, gas and ammonite that could generate significant economic activity and thus provide jobs and income for the community. However, though most of the Blood Tribe land is suitable for agriculture, the vast majority of the land is leased out to non-native farmers.  Although the Indian Act stipulates that the land belongs to the community, not all members have access to the use of or benefits from the land. For all intent and purposes, Blood Tribe members who have occupancy rights to lands enjoy private ownership of these lands within the community. These rights enable the occupants of the land to use it and obtain benefits from it; occupants can sell, trade, lease and transfer their land to community members, but cannot sell their land to a non-member of the community. Occupancy rights are transferred from generation  82 to generation. According to the Lands Department, only 10-12 percent to the Blood Tribe members has occupancy rights to the land. The majority of the land occupants in the Blood Tribe lease their lands to non-native farmers on 3-5 year leases. A Blood Tribe respondent (BT11) mentioned that a study conducted in the community regarding the flow of money in and out of the community showed that the leasing of land to non-natives results in a net annual outflow of $48 million from the community. One non-native farmer alone rents 70,000 acres from the Blood Tribe. Figure 4.11: Land use on the Blood Tribe Reserve, 2006  Irrigated Grassland 5% Irrigated Cropland 1%  Other Area 5%  Dryland Cropland 52% Dryland Grassland 37%  Source: Blood Tribe Land Department (2006) (Wittrock et al., 2008)  Communal lands, which amount to about 20% of the cultivable lands, are managed by two organizations created by Chief and Council: the Kainai Agricultural Business Corporation (KABC) and the Blood Tribe Agricultural Project (BTAP).  KABC manages an irrigation project that was the result of a partnership between Japanese corporations and the Blood Tribe. This partnership built in 1997 involves a timothy hay processing plant, the Blood Tribe Forage Plant, which has a capacity to produce 35,000 tonnes of compressed hay for the Japanese market. The plant also process and markets hay for other  83 neighbouring producers. When the plant is operating at full capacity, it provides 75 permanent jobs for the Blood Tribe (BT35 and BT36 pers. comm., 2005).  BTAP began in 1995, is owned and operated by the Blood Tribe, and is the largest contiguous irrigation project in Canada. The project is the result of an agreement among the Federal government, the province of Alberta and the Blood Tribe that gives water rights to the Blood Tribe to irrigate 25,000 acres. These rights were acquired by the Blood Tribe because of the land they relinquished, flooded, in 1947 for the expansion of the St. Mary’s reservoir. BTAP also owns and operates 104 centre pivots, heavy equipment and supplies. The irrigated lands are then leased out to neighbouring farmers for $370/ha, which is significantly higher than the $76/ha for leased dryland (BT35 pers. comm., 2008). Figure 4.12: Kainai Agri-Business Corporation, Blood Tribe Reserve  (Photo: V. Wittrock July 2008) Local employment opportunities for the Blood Tribe people are few. There is very little economic activity in the community; the only entities that provide some jobs for community members are KABC, BTAP and Kainai Resources; the latter entity develops and administers the oil and gas industries, and the Band departments. There is also a small café/restaurant, two gas stations with corresponding small stores and a few small handicraft businesses. The difficulties in accessing loans appear to be the main obstacles for starting up businesses of any type and size. The Blood Tribe Economic Development Department has a program that can provide up to $5,000 to individuals to start-up businesses, but this amount is much too small to make businesses  84 successful. For some time the Blood Tribe set up a manufacturing plant for affordable housing units for community members, but for unknown reasons this industry ceased to operate and successive attempts to revive it had been unsuccessful, at least until 2007 (Blood Tribe Administrative Review, BTAR, March 2007). In 2007, BTAP, KABC, the Blood Band Ranch were all amalgamated under one umbrella organization – the Blood Tribe Agriculture Sector (BTAS) (BTAR, June 2007). In 2008, the BTAS purchased 230 head of Black Angus cows to add to the existing 150 head of cattle at the Blood Band Ranch (BTAR, February 2008).  In 2008, the Kainai Resources Board approved the mining of ammonite on 25 acres of Blood Tribe land by the Buffalo Rock Mining Company (BTAR, April 2008). Labour Force and Employment According to Statistics Canada (2008), in 2006 the Blood Tribe was estimated to have a total of 2,915 workers over the age of 15 years (Table 4.5), of which 47.3% were active, and with a higher participation rate by male workers than female workers (Wittrock et al., 2008). Also, Statistics Canada (2008) shows that the employment rate of all Blood Tribe workers was very low at 36.2% of the total labour force, compared to the provincial average employment rate of 70.9% (Wittrock et al., 2008).  In 2006 (Statistics Canada, 2008), the unemployment rate for the Blood Tribe was estimated at 23.6%, which is considerably higher than the unemployment rate of 4% for the province of Alberta. Table 4.5: Selected characteristics of labour force at the Blood Tribe Reserve Characteristic Total Male Female Total Population 15 or over 2,915 1,435 1,480 In the Labour Force 1,380 745 635 Participation rate (% of the Total Population) 47.3 51.9 42.9 Employed 1,055 565 490 Employment Rate (% of Total Labour Force) 36.2 39.4 33.1 Unemployment Rate (% of Total Population) 23.6 24.2 23.6 Source: Statistics Canada (2008)  85 Like with other Statistics Canada figures, Blood Tribe officials contest the community’s unemployment rate reported by Statistics Canada, which is well below the rate estimated by the Blood Tribe. Blood Tribe members interviewed consistently estimated the unemployment rate for the community to be between 70% and 80%. The discrepancy between the two unemployment estimates could be explained by the same reasons, explained in Chapter Three, whereby Statistics Canada underestimates the population of the community. Figure 4.13: Distribution of male and female workers by industry, Blood Tribe, 2006 180 160  No. of female workers  140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0  160 140  No. of male workers  120 100 80 60 40 20 0  Source: Statistics Canada (2008)  86 Of the Blood Tribe labour force employed, male workers tend to be employed in the construction, agricultural and business services related jobs, whereas female workers are engaged more in the health and educational services – Figure 4.13 (Wittrock et al., 2008). Income Sources and Earnings Table 4.6 shows that in 2006 (Statistics Canada, 2006) over 40% of Blood Tribe households had an income less than $19,999, compared to 5% of Alberta households; on the other hand, only 10% of Blood Tribe households had an income of $60,000 and above, compared to 65% of Alberta households. Figure 4.14 shows the median household income for the Blood Tribe and Alberta.  Table 4.6: Blood Tribe household income 2006 Household Income (Number of Blood % Alberta % Households) Tribe less than $19,999 440 44 41,110 5 $20,000 - $39,999 335 33 118,425 13 $40,000 - $59,999 130 13 146,490 17 $60,000 and over 95 10 575,120 65 Total number of households 1,005 100 881,145 Median income all households $31,185 $63,988 Median income households with children $33,311 $92,155 Source: Statistics Canada 2001 and 2006 Census (numbers may not add up due to rounding)  Figure 4.14: Median income for the Blood Tribe and Alberta, 2006 $100,000.00 $90,000.00 $80,000.00 $70,000.00 $60,000.00 $50,000.00 Blood Tribe  $40,000.00  Alberta  $30,000.00 $20,000.00 $10,000.00 $Median income in 2006 - Median income in 2006 All private households Couple households with children  87 Given the higher rate of unemployment in the Blood Tribe compared to the rate of the province of Alberta, the composition of their respective incomes differs considerably. Statistics Canada 2006 figures show that 31% of total income of the Blood Tribe people comes from Federal transfer payments, compared to only 7% for the province of Alberta (Wittrock et al., 2008). Implications of Socio-Economic Characteristics for Adapting to Climate Change  The Blood Tribe profile that has been outlined in this chapter including its geographic location, social, economic, political and environmental context is essential to understanding how, when and why it is exposed to climate change and what adaptive capacity the community has in order to respond, cope and develop adaptation measures.  To summarize, the following are some of the key social, economic and political characteristics of the community:   Largest reserve in Canada with a diversity of resources including agricultural lands, rivers, oil and gas    Located in a historically dry environment    Prone to drought and floods    Very likely to be exposed to milder and wetter winters and higher summer temperatures    Low educational achievement (compared to citizens of Alberta)    Lack of employment opportunities    Dependence on social assistance    A shortage of housing units and crowding conditions    Lower income relative to the neighbouring non-reserve regions    Complex set of regulations and policies of the Indian and Northern Affairs Canada for dealing with the emergencies5  5    Increasing population, decreasing per capita resources over time    Inequity among members in accessing and obtaining benefits from natural resources    Remnant impacts of Residential Schools continues to affect members  For example, during the flood of 2005 almost half of the homes were damaged. Request made to the Indian and Northern Affairs Canada led to only a limited amount of funds available for repairs and / or reconstruction.  88   The Indian Act influences social and economic environments  4.2 Patzún Although some data needed for the construction of the Blood Tribe socio-economic and environmental profile was lacking, data for Patzún was even scarcer. The Statistics National Institute (INE, the Spanish acronym), which has the task of producing statistics for Guatemala, has limited up-to-date data on social and economic conditions of rural communities like Patzún; however, some basic data found on population, education and housing was used to construct the profile of the community. The ethnographic method utilized to gather information complements the statistical data available.  The World Disasters Report 2007 considers the lack of information and data about communities likely to be affected by natural disasters can constitute a form of discrimination, as these communities are the most vulnerable. In the case of Guatemala, information on indigenous communities is crucial to disaster preparedness because these communities populate the areas most affected by hurricanes (World Disaster Report, 2007).  The World Disasters Report 2007 also states that the need for disaggregated information is crucial to understanding the challenges that indigenous communities face in the rural areas of Guatemala. For example, indigenous communities most affected by hurricanes have also seen many of the men migrate illegally to the United States, leaving behind a high proportion of households headed by women.  4.2.1 Geographic setting  The municipality of Patzún is a Maya-Kaqchikel community located in on the West of the department of Chimaltenango, in the central region of Guatemala. It is located at 14° 40' 40.12"N latitudes and at 91° 1' 0.10" W longitudes (Figures 4.15 and Figure 4.16) (INE, 2000). To the North it borders with the town of Tecpan, to the South with the towns of Pochuta and Acatenango, to the East with Patzicia and San Juan Comalapa, and to the West with San Antonio Polopo and San Lucas Toliman. The land base of Patzún is 165.52 square kilometres. The capital of the municipality is the town of Patzún and it contains 12 villages and 32 hamlets.  89 The town of Patzún is located about 80 kilometres West of Guatemala City, a typical community in the rural highlands of Guatemala, with a large Maya population that has retained a distinct identity and speaks the Mayan language Kaqchikel. Some community members still follow traditional rituals and practices, but the overwhelming majority are Christians—Catholics or Protestants. According to the Guatemalan Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Nutrition (2003)—MAGA, by its Spanish initials—the etymology of Patzún may have derived from the Kaqchikel terms pa sum, which translate to “the place of the wild sunflowers.” Considering the abundance of wild sunflower (Helianthus annuus) in the area, Patzún is an appropriate name. Figure 4.15: Map of Guatemala showing the municipality of Patzún  (Google Maps, 2009) Although Guatemala is the most populous in the Central American isthmus, it is a small country compared to Canada. In fact, even the province of Alberta, where the Blood Tribe is located, is about 6 times larger than the whole country of Guatemala. The province of Alberta has an area of 661,000 square kilometres (Statistics Canada, 2012) compared to Guatemala’s total area of 108,890 square kilometres (FAO, Country Profiles, 2011).  There are few documented records of the origins and history of Patzún. Archaeological evidence found around the area where Patzún is now situated, such as ceramic and sculpted rock items,  90 suggests human habitation dating back to the Preclassic Mayan period (500 BC to 200 AD) (Matas et al., 2008). Evidence also suggest that during the Classic Mayan period (200 AD to 1000 AD), the population was significant enough to constitute a defined settlement, though it appears that in the Postclassic period (1000 to 1500) the population had declined slightly compared to the Classic period (Matas et al., 2008). Novales (1970) suggests that by the time the Spanish settled down in the region around 1524, the population of Patzún was already well established. Official records indicate that Franciscan Spanish priests “founded the church of Patzún” in 1940 and as a consequence “founded” the town of Patzún (Novales, 1970).  Figure 4.16: Municipality of Patzún, shaded in red  (Google maps, 2009)  Patzún is located in the highlands of Guatemala where the volcanoes of Fuego and Pacaya are active volcanoes in the area. The last great volcano eruption in this area was in 1975, when the Fuego volcano sent ashes in the sky for several days and during which time a rain of ash fell in the Patzún region. The Fuego volcano intermittently emits small amounts of ash, but not enough to reach Patzún. A mix of gently undulating slopes (1-8 percent) and very steep slopes characterize the Patzún landscape; these characteristics are the morphological result of the region’s historic and present active volcanism. According to MAGA (2003), most of the cultivated lands in the Patzún region have slopes that range from 10 to 70 percent. Set in this active volcanic region, the soils of Patzún are very productive, which allow the Patzún people to  91 continue to practice traditional subsistence agriculture as the main source of their livelihood and income. The local people have practiced this type of traditional agriculture for hundreds, if not thousands, of years, and it consists of cultivating on a plot of land a mixture of corn, beans, squash and leafy plants, all of which are for their own consumption. This traditional agriculture in Patzún continues to be exclusively dry farming, entirely dependent on rainfall.  Over the last 30 years, the Patzún people, like other surrounding Kaqchikel communities, have been cultivating vegetables such as snow peas, broccoli, lettuce, carrots, zucchini and other like vegetables almost all exclusively for the export market. These new crops do not depend only on rainfall. Crops such as snow peas grow and yield best when there is little or no rain, as long as there is enough moisture in the soil to feed the growing plants. Consequently, some farmers are growing crops all year round and in recent years, there has been a significant encroachment of the agricultural frontier into pine, cypress and oak forests that are typical in the area.  The expansion of the agricultural frontier into forested areas has been possible because even during the dry season the soil in these frontier areas retain enough moisture for the crops to grow. This encroachment has led to the cultivation of areas in higher altitudes and with very steep slopes. Unlike corn, it appears that the vegetable crops for export grow well in these areas. Some farmers grow the export crops in flatter areas and in lower altitudes, where soil moisture is very low during the summer, but they need to the crops. This “irrigation” consists of nothing more than the use of hoses drawing water from nearby small streams, springs, or directly hooked up to water taps intended for household needs. Patzún has about 21 small streams6 and 8-9 springs, but some of them are almost dried up or only flow in the rainy season (SEGEPLAN, 2010). Most of these streams are far from the town of Patzún and their course run along deep ravines and difficult to access. Deforestation because of the expansion of the agricultural frontier is decreasing the water flow in some of the streams, which further stress the supply for drinking water.  6  Blanco, Las Flores, Nicán, Peña, Colorada, Bojoyá, Los Cangrejos, Nimayá, Reventón, Chocoyá, Los Chocoyos, Pacacquix, San Jorge, El Molino, Los Encuentros, Pachimulín, Seco, La Vega, Los Ídolos, Patoquer, Xatzán, Las Canoas, Madre Vieja, Paxulá and Zarco.  92 Figure 4.17: Pipes delivering water to fields cultivated with export crops  The municipality looks after the streams and springs, but it is not easy to do, especially the springs that originate from private lands and where we have no control over them. Also, people cut down trees in order to make more room for their crops; they cut them and we cannot do much because it is on their private property. Some of the streams don’t have much water anymore. We do have the “Astillero Municipal7” where we make sure that the trees are not cut down illegally. From the Astillero Municipal the municipality is building collection tanks and laying pipes to bring into the town enough water to supply drinking water to a few more homes and to supplement water for those who already have water, but as you know, we can only supply them with water every other day (PA17, pers. comm., 2008).  7  An area of 955 ha, mostly forest, administered by the municipality, but for the communities use. People who do not any land can apply for a permit to use a small portion of land for growing crops. The area is protected, but community members have access to the forest to obtain small quantities of firewood, medicinal plants, plant and tree leaves used for ornamental or ceremonial purposes. Of the total area, community members who have secured permits currently use 40 ha for growing crops.  93 4.2.2 Climate  Table 4.7 shows the annual average precipitation for all of the Central American countries for the periods 1950-1979 and 1980-2006. The comparison between the two periods shows a slight decrease in precipitation for most countries, except for Belize and Panama where there has been a slight increase. Precipitation decreased most for El Salvador and Guatemala, with 3.6 and 2.7 percent decrease, respectively.  Table 4.7: Central America: change in average annual precipitation, 1950 to 2006 (Millimetres and percentages) Period 1950-1979 1980-2006 Change (%)  Costa Rica Belize 2,941 2,138 2,922 2,196 -0.6 2.7  El Salvador Guatemala Honduras 1,799 2,795 2,039 1,735 2,719 2,016 -3.6 -2.7 -1.2  Nicaragua 2,444 2,435 -0.4  Panama 2,599 2,688 3.4  Source: CEPAL, La economía del cambio climático en Centroamérica, Reporte Técnico 2011  Though small, Guatemala has a great variety of climate depending on the local geography and topography. In the lowlands in the North part of the country and on the coastal areas on the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, the climate is hot and humid, whereas in the highlands in the Western and North Western parts of the country, the climate is cool.  Anomalies (%)  Figure 4.18: Average air temperature trend (1961-1990)  Year  Source: Primera Comunicación Nacional sobre Cambio Climático, 2001  94 According to the Instituto de Sismolog a, Vulcanolog a, Meteorolog a e Hidrolog a (INSIVUMEH—which is the meteorological agency), during the period 1961 to 1990 the average air temperature for Guatemala showed a rising trend; since the 1970s, the air temperature has been above average as shown with the red color columns below (Figure 4.18). Data from INSIVUMEH also shows, Figure 4.19, that since the 1970s the trend for annual average precipitation for Guatemala has declined, as can be seen with the predominance of gold columns below the average annual precipitation.  Anomalies %  Figure 4.19: Annual precipitation anomalies for 1961-1990  Years (Source: Primera Comunicación Nacional sobre Cambio Climático, 2001  A closer analysis of the records that show a reduction in annual rainfall since the 1970s suggests that this reduction is due to the higher intensity of the phenomenon called “Can cula” (in Spanish), which occurs in the months of July and August and right in the middle of the rainy season. During this two-month period, the precipitation is much lower than in June and September. The intensification of this phenomenon is especially significant because the vast majority of agriculture practiced in Guatemala is totally rain dependent, the more intense the Canícula phenomenon the greater the risk of crop failure (Warner et al., 2009).  According to INSIVUMEH, records for Guatemala City show that in recent years there has been an increase in frequency of extreme precipitation (greater than 40 mm) as seen in Figure 4.20.  95 Guatemala City is located in the central part of the country, about 80 km from Patzún. There is no weather station in Patzún, but the records for Guatemala City provide a good approximation of precipitation trends for Patzún.  Days  Figure 4.20: Days during year when rain is greater than 40 mm, Guatemala City, 19702003.  Years  Source: Primera Comunicación Nacional sobre Cambio Climático, 2001  Patzún is 2213 metres above sea level (INE, 2000) and its temperatures tend toward being cool; during the months of November to February, the night temperatures plunge toward 0 C and it is common for frost to form.  The closest weather station near Patzún is located nearby at Santa Cruz Balanya, about 12 km away. However, weather data for this station is available only for the period 1990 to 2010. The monthly average temperature recorded at this station from 1990 to 2010 shows that it ranges between 14 C to 18 C with a maximum temperature of 30 C and a low of 10 C (Figure 4.21), and 80% humidity.  96 Figure 4.21: Monthly average temperature (Celsius), period 1990 to 2010, at Santa Cruz Balanya  20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0  Temperature  JAN  MAR  MAY  JUL  SEP  NOV  (Data obtained from INSIVUMEH, 2011) Figure 4.22 shows the monthly average precipitation at Santa Cruz Balanya from 1990 to 2010. During the dry season, the precipitation is low with an average of 1.8 mm for February and 2.2 mm for January, whereas in the wet season the precipitation is high with an average of 223 mm for June and 204.9 mm for September. Figure 4.22 also shows that during the months of July and August the average monthly precipitation dips significantly compared to June and September— this dip in precipitation is due to the Canicula phenomenon, described above. The lowest precipitation recorded for July was 7.3 mm in 1996, compared to the July monthly average of 153.97 mm; the lowest precipitation recorded for August was 6.3 mm in 1993 and 7.1 mm in 1997, compared to the August monthly average of 132.64. The highest precipitation events recorded include 322.3 mm in May 2010, compared to the May monthly average of 133. 81; 370.7 mm and 462.2 mm in June of 2006 and 2005, respectively, compared to the June average of 222.8 mm; 316.3 mm and 307.8 mm in September of 1994 and 2009, respectively, compared to the September average of 204.93; and 258.2 mm in October of 2005, compared to the October average of 108.63 mm.  97 Figure 4.22: Average monthly precipitation, period 1990 to 2010, for Santa Cruz Balanya mm 250 200 150 100 50 Total precipitation  DEC  NOV  OCT  SEP  AUG  JUL  JUN  MAY  APR  MAR  FEB  JAN  0 Months  (Data obtained from INSIVUMEH, 2011)  Data for wind speed is available only for the period 1999 to 2008. Figure 4.23 shows that the monthly average wind speed is between 9.1 km/h in May to 14 km/h in November. Monthly average wind speed is highest in March, April and November. Figure 4.23: Average monthly wind speed, period 1990 to 2010, for Santa Cruz Balanya  km/hr 16.0 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0  Months  (Data obtained from INSIVUMEH, 2011)  DEC  NOV  OCT  SEP  AUG  JUL  JUN  MAY  APR  MAR  FEB  JAN  Wind Speed…  98 4.1.3 Future climate Climate climate models by the WGI of the 2007 IPCC obtained from the IPCC’s Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), show that the Central American region under an A1B scenario8, which emphasizes continued economic growth but with a more balanced use of all energy sources, the average annual temperature will rise between 1.8 C to 5 C by 2099 (Figure 4.24). The black line shows observed temperature anomalies for the period 1901 to 2005 for the region integrating known stresses (red area); the range of forecasted changes in temperature between 2001 and 2100 according to scenario A1B is show in the orange area. The bars on the right show the forecasted changes for the period 2001 and 2100 based on other SRES: the blue bar represents the temperature outcome according to scenario B19, the orange bar temperature outcomes according to scenario AIB and the red bar temperature outcomes according to scenario A210.  Based on scenario A1B the models predict a decrease of 9% in precipitation by 2100 for the Central American region. Results from the models also suggest that in the future there will likely be an increase in extreme events, as well as in an increase in the frequency and intensity of hurricanes in the Caribbean Basin (IPCC, WGI, 2007).  Using seven general global climate models and the four main SRES, Table 4.8 shows the range of temperature and precipitation changes for the two main seasons, dry and wet, in Central America for the years 2020, 2050 and 2080. The greatest forecasted increase in temperature is 6.6 C for the wet season by 2080, while precipitation varies between a decrease of 30% in the wet season by 2080 and an increase of 8% for the dry season by 2080. 8  Scenario A1B has “very rapid economic growth, global population that peaks in mid-century and declines thereafter, and the rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies. Major underlying themes are convergence among regions, capacity building, and increased cultural and social interactions, with a substantial reduction in regional differences in per capita income. This scenario also includes a more balanced use of all energy sources. 9 B1 is a scenario like A1B, “but with rapid changes in economic structures toward a service and information economy, with reductions in material intensity, and the introduction of clean and resource-efficient technologies. The emphasis is on global solutions to economic, social, and environmental sustainability, including improved equity, but without additional climate initiatives.” 10 A2 is a scenario where “the emphasis is on local solutions to economic, social, and environmental sustainability. It is a world with continuously increasing global population…intermediate levels of economic development…it is also oriented toward environmental protection and social equity, it focuses on local and regional levels.” Source: IPCC, 2007a (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC)  99 Figure 4.24: Temperature variation during the period 2001 to 2100 for Central America relative to 1901—2005  Source: IPCC, 2007a (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC), Climate Change 2007: the Physical Science Basis, Chapter 11, contribution of Working Group I to the IPCC Fourth Report, 2007.  These forecasted changes in temperature and precipitation will affect the people of Patzún. An increase in temperature and a decrease in precipitation will affect the livelihood of the people based on agriculture. Most of the agriculture practiced by the community is entirely dependent of rainfall, so changes in the quantity and patterns of the rainfall, an increase in temperatures and an increase in extreme weather events will be detrimental to the people.  Table 4.8: Forecasted change in temperature and precipitation for Central America 2020, 2050 and 2080 Season Changes in temperature C 2020 2050 2080 Dry +0.4 to +1.1 +1.0 to +3.0 +1.0 to +5.0 Wet +0.5 to +1.7 +1.0 to +4.0 +1.3 to +6.6 Changes in Precipitation (%) 2020 2050 2080 Dry -7 to +7 -12 to +5 -20 to +8 Wet -10 to +4 -15 to +3 -30 to +5 Source: IPCC (2007 b), (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), Climate Change 2007: Impact, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Contribution by Working Group I to the Fourth IPCC Report. Frequent extreme precipitation events have already affected Guatemala and other Central American countries over the last two decades. Three of the most damaging extreme precipitation  100 events occurred in 1998, 2005 and 2010 when the hurricanes Mitch, Stan and Agatha, respectively, caused extensive damage throughout the country (SEGEPLAN and CONRED, 2010).  In terms of droughts, one of the most severe occurred in 2001, when the Eastern part of the country was declared an emergency zone (CONRED, 2001) The consequences of these extreme climatic precipitation and drought events have had detrimental impacts in communities throughout Guatemala. In the following chapters the impacts of these events on the country and on Patzún, in particular, will be elaborated on. In general, climate related events experienced over the last two decades by the Patzún people, together with the forecasted impacts, draw attention to the need to implement adaptation measures at the local and national levels to safeguard agricultural production, food security, infrastructure and the well-being of rural and traditional communities like Patzún. 4.2.4 Water supply and resources  As described in a previous section of this chapter, Patzún has 21 small streams, but these streams are not used as sources for drinking water. Most of these streams are difficult to access as they are located in deep ravines or remote areas and therefore not suitable as sources for drinking water. Also, the town of Patzún does not have a sewage treatment facility and the sewage effluent is diverted into two large ravines, where downstream this effluent converges with a few of the 21 streams.  The sources for drinking water for the town of Patzún and the various villages and hamlets are springs and wells. Each village obtains water from springs located within their boundaries, but a few obtain water from springs far outside of their boundaries.  For the town of Patzún, drinking water comes from 7 springs located in wooded areas, three from the outskirts of the town and the others from places a few kilometers away from the town as shown in Figure 4.25. Over the last few years, the locations of the springs have been increasingly encroached on because of the expansion of the cultivation of non-traditional export crops. The quality of the water from these springs is at risk of contamination from pesticides and fertilizers  101 because they are located nearby fields cultivated with non-traditional crops that require the application of pesticides and chemical fertilizers.  Analysis conducted in 2000 of the water quality from the 7 springs that supply water for the town of Patzún showed that they contained nitrates, pesticides and faecal coliform, which are contaminants associated with agriculture and the use of agrochemicals. Although the concentration of pesticides found in the water samples from the springs were below the maximum allowable concentrations (MAC) as per the drinking water quality guidelines by the World Health Organization, the Environmental Protection Agency (US) and the Health Canada, seven types of pesticides’ residues were found. Of more concern were the concentrations of nitrates and faecal coliform found. In two of the springs, the concentration of nitrates was twice as high as the MAC. Samples from all seven springs contained faecal coliform, rendering the water not potable for human consumption (Magzul, 2004).  The municipality manages the availability and quality of the drinking water for five of the water springs; the local health centre monitors the quality of the water and they provide guidelines for chlorination, which is the only water treatment undertaken by the municipality. The municipality provides water to about 50% of households. Homes that have water piped in only receive water for 3-4 hours every other day. Every other day families allocate time for filling up storage containers and store as much water as they can for their many domestic needs. The people of Patzún have historically lacked water for domestic use because the sources are not sufficient for the population.  Piped water supplied to homes is a relatively recent development. In 1976, an earthquake destroyed all of the homes in the community and it was after this time that water pipes were installed in most of the rebuilt homes. Before the earthquake, most of the people obtained water for domestic use from public fountains.  Community-based organizations manage the availability and quality of the other two water springs that supply water for the town. These organizations monitor the availability and quality of the water. These springs are located just outside of the town: Nikinik and Culantrillo, Figure 4.25. These two springs supply water to families that do not get piped water supplied by the  102 municipality; however, some families that get water from municipality are also members of these community-based organizations and can access water from the Nikinik or Culantrillo sources when the water supplied by the municipality is not sufficient for their needs. The Nikinik community-based managed water source is distributed through public fountains and washing places located throughout the town. The Culantrillo water is distributed through two public fountains and washing places located in neighbourhoods in the west side of the town.  Figure 4.25: Location of drinking water sources for the town of Patzún  Note: the town of Patzún is shaded in gray and the dash lines show the various roads that connect the town with the villages and hamlets  Each village and hamlet in the municipality manages its own drinking water sources. Each village and hamlet has a Consejo Comunitario de Desarrollo (community development council) (COCODE) and the members are community volunteers who oversee community development needs, including drinking water, and either undertake community development project themselves or lobby the municipal government for assistance.  103 Table 4.9 shows that about 24 % of the households in the town of Patzún obtain water for domestic use from wells and about 23 % of the households obtain water from public fountains; just over 50% of all households obtain water from the municipality.  The shortage of water for domestic use causes hardship for the Patzún people because they need to allocate a great deal of work and time to access and store the water they need for daily use. Patzún’s high rate of population growth places further stress on the water supply; in addition, the forecasted impacts of climate change indicate that there will be a decrease in precipitation, and therefore a decrease in the availability of water supply, adding further stress and hardship for the people.  Table 4.9: Type of water supply for domestic use, 2002 Source Households Individual piped water  3,714  Shared piped water  485  Public fountains  1,845  Wells  1,937  Collected or hauled in water  9  River or spring  84  Other  60  Source: INE, Population Estimates based on XI Population Census, 2002  4.2.5 Social and economic characteristics Population The municipality of Patzún contains the town of Patzún, 10 aldeas (villages) and 31 caserios (smaller villages), Figure 4.26. According to the 2002, (INE) census the population of Patzún was 42,326, of which 17,346 lived in the town of Patzún and 24,980 lived in the many small villages and hamlets around the town. Women made up 51 percent of the population and men 49 percent. The population was young, with 80.5 percent of the population under 40 years old and only 5 percent greater than 60 years old. Ninety five percent of the population of the entire municipality  104 was Kaqchikel and 5 percent is ladino (people of mixed European and indigenous ancestry – known in other countries as mestizos), Figure 4.27. Figure 4.26: Map of the municipality of Patzún – showing the town of Patzún and the various villages  Source: Muncipality of Patzún’s website Figure 4.27: Patzún population according to ethnicity 100 90 Population percentage  80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Kaqchikel  Ladino  Source: INE, Population Estimates based on Population Census, 2002, 2010  105 Statistical projections indicate that the population rose from 42,326 in 2002 to 51,405 in 2010 (Figure 4.28), of which approximately 25,000 live in the town and the remainder in the villages and hamlets.  Figure 4.28: Patzún population projection to 2020 70,000 60,000  Population  50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 -  2008  2010  2012  2014 Year  2016  2018  2020  Source: INE, Population Estimates based on Population Census, 2002, 2010  Given that the projected population for Patzún for the year 2010 was 51,405 and that Patzún’s territorial extension is 165.52 km2, the population density for 2010 was 310.5 people per km2 (compared to 3 people per km2 for the Blood Tribe), which is greater than the average 301 people per km2 for the entire Chimaltenango department. The rate of population growth for Patzún in 2002 was 2.8%, and the estimated rate of population growth into the future is 3.8% (Censo the Poblacion, 2002; INE, 2010).  There are about 25,000 in the town of Patzún, and because the town is very compact, it appears to be constantly bustling. Even in the smaller villages, people appear to be engaged in something at all times. It is rare to see somebody working or undertaking an activity without being accompanied by at least one other person. In the fields during harvest times, entire families, including children and the elderly, work side-by-side picking and gathering crops.  106 Given the high density of the population and a relatively small municipal territory, the lands suitable for agriculture have been exhausted. As a result, some community members seek work in nearby towns, but primarily in Guatemala City, as it is fairly close by and easy to get to. Once in the city, people work in businesses, trades, various professions, or as wage labourers.  Figure 4.29: Patzún population by age distribution for 2004, 2007 and 2010 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000  2004  5,000  2007  4,000  2010  3,000 2,000 1,000 0 0-4  5-9  10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69  70 and over  Population Estimates based on XII Population Census, 2010.  Figure 4.29 shows that the population of Patzún is very young. Sixty five percent of the population is younger than 24 years, whereas only 5.5% of the population is older than 60 years. Life expectancy for the Patzún people is 67 years, which is similar to the life expectancy of other indigenous communities in the Guatemala. Education levels Table 4.10 shows that in 2002, forty five percent of the Patzún population had primary school as the highest level of education; less than one percent had a college or university degree, and at least about twenty percent had no formal education. There was no data on the levels of education for about twenty one percent of the population, so the proportion with no formal education could be much higher than 20 percent.  107 Table 4.10: Education levels for Patzún in 2002 Level of education Population Percentage No schooling 8,426 20 Kindergarten 487 1 Primary 19,063 45 High School 5,111 12 College/University 388 1 N/D 8,851 21 TOTAL 42,326 100 Source: INE Proyección de Población, MINEDUC Censos de matrícula,  Table 4.10 shows the proportion of the population between 7 and 12 years old and the percentage of this proportion that is registered in school; for the four years shown the percentage of children registered in school is around 93-94 percent.  Table 4.11: Proportion of the population between 7 and 12 years old and school registration, 2002 Year 7 to 12 years old Registered 7 to 12 years old Percentage 2005 7,917 7,384 93 2006 8,069 7,614 94 2007 8,227 7,754 94 2008 8,390 7,836 93 Source: INE Proyección de Población, MINEDUC Censos de matrícula  Table 4.12 shows the proportion of the population between 13 and 15 years old and the percentage of this proportion that are registered in school; for the four years shown, the percentage of children registered in school ranges between 33 and 37 percent. From the figures shown in Tables 4.2.5 and 4.2.6, it can be inferred that the great majority of children between the ages of 7 and 12 years old attend school, but after the age of 12 years old, a large proportion drops out. Table 4.12: Proportion of the population between 13 and 15 years old and school registration, 2002 Registered 13 to 15 years old Percentage Year 13 to 15 years old 2005 3,444 1,122 33 2006 3,505 1,166 33 2007 3,566 1,303 37 2008 3,625 1,322 36 Source: INE Proyección de Población, MINEDUC Censos de matrícula  108 In the town of Patzún, there are various primary and middle schools and five high schools. Most of the surrounding villages have primary schools, but only a few of these villages have middle schools. Children in the villages that want to continue studying after primary school (grade six) have to find a school to attend in the town.  The five high schools in the town do not have the capacity to accommodate the number of students that want a high school education; many of these students have to find high schools to attend in bigger towns or Guatemala City. Housing In 2002, the housing stock in Patzún was of 8,508 units, of which 8,134 units were occupied (Table 2.4.7). Ninety eight percent of all homes were privately owned; 2% of the homes were rented. The average room per home was two and the average people per room was 2.6 (INE, 2002), therefore, the occupancy rate per home was 5.2 people. Table 4.13: Patzún occupied private dwellings by type, 2002 Occupied Private Dwellings by Type 2002 % of total Apartments N/A N/A Detached duplexes N/A N/A Movable dwellings N/A N/A Other single attached house N/A N/A Row and semi-detached house N/A N/A Single-detached house N/A N/A Total number of occupied private dwellings 8134 100% Private dwellings, owned 7977 98% Private dwellings, rented 157 2% Source: INE, Population Estimates based on XI Population Census, 2002 In the town, 25 % of the households live in inadequate housing conditions compared to 32 % of the households in the villages and hamlets. One percent of all of the households in the entire municipality live in precarious housing conditions (INE, 2002). About 75 % of the homes are built with cinder blocks, 13 % with adobe, and the remaining homes are built with bricks and wood. About 80% of the homes have corrugated iron for the roofing (INE, 2002).  109 Broad socio-economic forces In 1579, the Spanish captain Juan Estrada described the town of Patzún as place established in a valley where the land was fertile and the climate cold. Estrada described that the local people cultivated maize, peppers, beans, vegetables and fruits such as peaches. The people also hunted deer and rabbits and raised some birds for their own consumption, as well as for commerce. They sold some of these foods to travelers who came through the town. Patzún was located in between other important centres and those traveling between these centres had to go through Patzún. It appears that people traveling from what was then Guatemala’s capital, Santiago de Guatemala, to distant places like Mexico, El Salvador and to the coastal area of Guatemala had to go through Patzún. In addition to selling some of their foods to travelers, the Patzún people also traveled and sold these foods to other towns near and far. On their way back from their selling expeditions, they would return with cacao and cotton. They then sold cacao to the Spanish and used the cotton to make their own clothes (Matas et al., 2008).  Although there is no available information on the particular type of landownership that the Kaqchikel practiced prior to the arrival of the Spanish, land ownership practiced by other indigenous groups in Guatemala at that time included individual land rights and communal property (Cambranes, 1992).  Since the arrival of the Spanish in Mesoamerica, indigenous people like the Kaqchikel have experienced traumatic episodes, from the destruction of their governance systems to the loss of access and use of resources. At the time of Christopher Columbus’ arrival in the Americas, the Mayas lived in an area that is now known as Yucatan and Chiapas (Mexico), Guatemala, Belize and parts of Honduras and El Salvador, and had done so for at least 2,000 years before (Wright, 1991). Because the Spanish “conquered” the indigenous populations, their bounty included the dispossession of the people’s lands and the imposition of slavery and tributes. Estimates of the human cost of the wars, diseases and slavery vary, but one of the estimates most commonly used is that at the time the Spanish arrived in Mesoamerica there were 50 million people and that 50 years later the population had dwindled to between five and 15 million people (Wolf, 1959). Just for the area that is now Guatemala, Denevan (1992), Lovell & Swezey (1982), Lovell, Lutz and Swezey (1984) estimate the Maya population to have been about 2 million in 1524.  110 Under Spanish rule, people in Patzún were forced to provide tribute and labour to the Spanish Crown and to the local Spaniards ruling the community. For example, in 1655 a Spaniard living in the area asked for 10 Indians so that he could grow more wheat on his land (Matas et al., 2008). In addition to providing labour and tribute, the people of Patzún were expected to practice Christianity. In 1703, the local governor was expected to make Kaqchikel men and women attend mass and practice Christianity, collect the tributes and make sure that the local people continue to raise chickens and grow maize and vegetables. The governor was to see that the people were not “idle and drunks” and to practice nothing else but Christianity (Matas et al., 2008).  In 1737, the people of Patzún complained to the Spanish Crown that Spaniards, blacks and mulatos who had lands nearby the communal crops were letting their cattle roam on the communal lands and that with the damages caused by the cattle they could not paid the tributes expected from them (Matas et al., 2008). From the time the Spanish “conquered” the Mayas of Guatemala until 1821, when Guatemala became independent from Spain, the Spaniards relied on legal instruments to control and wrench labour from the Mayas. These legal instruments were similar to those used in other parts of Latin America such as repartimientos and mandamientos. Through these instruments, the Spanish Crown “entrusted” the conquistadors with a certain number of “Indians” whose labour they could use for farming, mining and road construction. The labour provided by the Mayas was remunerated with very low or nominal wages, and in some cases it was not remunerated at all (Dawson, 1965).  Soon after independence from Spain, the ruling elite that replaced the governing Spaniards briefly abolished but quickly re-introduced the pre-independence legal instruments that enabled the exploitation of Mayan labour. In addition, in the 1930s the Vagrancy Law was introduced to further exploit Mayan labour. The Vagrancy Law forced “unemployed” Mayas to work, especially in the construction or repair of roads and on mestizo plantations (Dawson, 1965).  It is difficult to provide an accurate number for the population of Patzún during the colonial period, as there is no official information on population of that time; however, there are documents from which a rough estimate can be derived. One estimate can be derived from the  111 records documenting the amount of tribute collected by the Spanish Crown from the men in the community; this tribute could be in the form of money or maize.  To calculate the population at that time, it can be assumed that the men from whom tribute was collected were heads of families. In 1779, the Spanish Crown collected tribute from 800 men and in 1782 from 865 men. With the assumption that these men were head of families, and assuming, conservatively, that each family had 2 children, the estimated population of Patzún for 1782 was 3,460 (4 X 865 –where the family is assumed to be 1 men + 1 woman + 2 children).  Statistics for Patzún for 1955 reveals that at that time there were 5,103 people living in the town and about 10,997 people in the entire municipality. There were 2,354 families; 86% of the population was Kaqchikel and the remaining population was mestizo (Ladinos). Also, officially the level of illiteracy in Patzún in 1955 was 84% (Matas et al., 2008). Comparing the 1955 statistics with current ones shows that the population has quintupled and that until recently the great majority of people were illiterate.  The social and economic structures of present day Guatemala, where the extreme wealth of a minority exists at the expense of the extreme poverty of the majority, have been shaped and controlled by a small elite. This elite was at first constituted by Spanish conquistadors until Guatemala became independent from the Spanish Crown in 1821, and then by another elite constituted this time by Spaniards born and raised in Guatemala (criollos) and mestizos (ladinos). These elites have exploited natural resources and Mayan labour through economic policies that focused on attracting foreign investment for the cultivation and exportation of agricultural products. The thrust of these policies became especially evident in 1871 when the “Liberal” government of the time attracted German investment that financed the dramatic increase in the cultivation and exportation of coffee (Keen and Hayes, 2004).  The increased production of coffee required a stable and constant supply of labour, which the 1873 government of Justo Rufino Barrios made possible by, once again, relying heavily on the mandamientos, a regulation that coerced labour from the Mayas. The Barrios government also confiscated Mayan communal lands that were subsequently sold to domestic and foreign coffee  112 producers. As a result, of the confiscation of their communal lands, many Mayas had no other choice but to work for the coffee plantation owners in order to survive (Keen and Hayes, 2004).  There are community members who remember the hardship they or others lived through when they were forced to work for others as labourers in agriculture or in the construction of roads:  In the early 1900s there was this president, his last name was Ubico, who forced us indigenous people to work for others and not be paid. For instance, the local municipality could get you to do some work but you wouldn’t be paid. There was also a law that said that if you didn’t have much land, somehow this was interpreted as spare time and so you need to work so many days a year for somebody else. So if you have little or no land they gave a little book where you had to keep track of the days you worked for somebody else; they wanted you to work 125-150 days a year for somebody else. They paid you for the work you did, but you were not in control of what you do. And if you didn’t complete the number of days working for somebody else, they put you in jail. My grandparents, our grandparents, used to work for nothing; and then there was that time when the roads were being built and our people were forced to go and work to build the roads. They were taken to distant places like Quetzaltenango [about 250 km from Patzún] and forced to work, but some would escape and come back to Patzún, on foot. And then the government stopped our people from leaving the workplace by taking away their clothes—our people would escape during the night, and to stop them, the government took their clothes away and gave them a sack to use for sleeping, but otherwise they were naked, that way they would not escape. So when they talk about how Guatemala became independent, sovereign and free from Spain, our ancestors were not free, they were suffering. Regarding their food, who knows? Maybe they were not fed. That’s why we were poor; we were slaves. But the landowners were rich (PA21, pers. comm., 2007).  In 1944, a progressive government abolished the legal instruments used to force labour from the Mayas, and for the first time they were allowed to vote and, theoretically, have an influence in choosing a national government. Arevalo’s 1945 government and the subsequent government of Jacobo Arbenz sought to redress in 1952 the highly skewed land ownership through the Ley de Reforma Agraria (Agrarian Reform). This Agrarian Reform aimed to restructure a landholding system where 2 % of the population owned 70% of the arable land. To provide land for thousands of landless peasants, the government “confiscated” idle land held by large landowners and compensated them with the self-declared tax assessment value of the lands. Affected landowners  113 immediately sought ways to stop the confiscation of these lands, and with the help of the United States, they overthrew the government in 1954, and in the process reversing the restructuring of land ownership (Dawson, 1965).  Land ownership in Guatemala continues to be highly skewed and it is considered one of the major causes for the concentration of poverty in the rural areas. In fact, the Gini coefficient for land ownership has increased slightly (more skewed) from 0.82 in 1964 to 0.85 in 2010 (World Bank, 2010).  From 1954 to 1985, the people of Guatemala suffered under successive military governments that sought to maintain the political and economic interests of the small elite by perpetrating terrible acts of repression against an opposition (insurgency) movement that fought for the rights and interests of the disenfranchised majority. This repression against the opposition movement resulted in the death and disappearance of thousands of people and in the flight of millions of refugees, mostly fleeing into Mexico.  The Guatemalan Historical Clarification Commission (Comisión para el Esclarecimiento Histórico – CEH)11 in a 1999 report stated that the Guatemalan state committed hundreds of massacres through a scorched earth counterinsurgency campaign against thousands of mostly Maya communities in the highlands of Guatemala, especially between 1981 and 1983. The Report unequivocally states that the repression carried out against the Maya people was meant to break not just the base of the insurgency movement, but also the cultural values that promote cohesion and collective action in Maya communities (CEH, 1999).  Although since 1996, when the Guatemala state and the insurgency movement signed a peace accord, the political conditions in Guatemala have shifted away from violent repression by the Guatemalan government, the social and economic structures that reproduce extreme wealth and extreme poverty persevere. In recent years, many Guatemalans have joined the thousands of  11  The Comisión para el Esclarecimiento Histórico was created in 1994 in order to investigate human rights violations perpetrated by the Guatemalan government and the opposition movement during the civil war between the period of January 1962 to December 1996. The CEH has attributed 93% of human rights violations to the Guatemalan state and 85% of human rights violations directly attributed to the Guatemalan army.  114 economic refugees migrating toward the United States where they attempt to enter illegally, and in the process, many risk their lives.  It is estimated that 5,000 people from Patzún have migrated illegally to the United States. In recent years, through the Seasonal Agricultural Worker Program by the Canadian government, thousands of people from Patzún migrate seasonally to Canada where they work primarily as agricultural labourers. It is estimated that remittances by the thousands of migrants living in the United States inject over $ 100,000 monthly to the Patzún economy (SEGEPLAN, 2010). Economic Activity, Employment, Poverty and Education Employment opportunities Subsistence farming has been and continues to be the main economic activity in Patzún. Most of the people continue to grow corn, beans and squash for their own consumption and following traditional agricultural practices that have been passed down through many generations. The average area of land that a family cultivates is about two cuerdas12, with yields of about 500 kg of corn and 200 kg to 250 kg of black beans per cuerda. About 40% of the land in the Municipality of Patzún is used for agriculture (IV Censo Agropecuario, 2003). The continuation of subsistence agriculture in Patzún is limited by the availability of suitable land, soil productivity and, increasingly, weather related events such as erosion and landslides.  The vast majority of the people of Patzún continue to grow traditional crops for their own subsistence, but over the last decades some of the people have been using some of their lands to grow vegetables such as broccoli, snow peas, carrots, Brussels sprouts, zucchini and others, which are all exported mostly to the United States, and some to Europe. Patzún is one of the main producers of snow peas and broccoli in Guatemala. In 2007, Patzún produced up to 40% of snow peas and 41% of broccoli nationally. The production of these vegetables provides employment to 7,000 families in Patzún (Santa Cruz, 2009).  Although most people are farmers, many others have skills in a diversity of trades and services including home builders, carpenters, electricians, plumbers, taxi drivers, weavers, artists, 12  The cuerda is a Spanish land unit with dimensions of 30 m x 30 m, approximately 0.11 ha.  115 handicraft specialists, domestic servants, labourers and small scale business. Despite the high illiteracy rate in the community, about 37 percent –and mostly among the older generation who had no opportunity to go to school—more recently there has been a growing number of professionals such as teachers, doctors, lawyers, scientists, academics and other professions.  Other important economic activities in Patzún include the production of handicrafts such as traditional weavings, baskets and reed mats, which are sold locally and internationally. Labour Force and Employment Since that the majority of the population practice small-scale agriculture for their livelihood, which is an activity that is not tracked and documented in detail, data related to employment and income are difficult to obtain. According to INE, in 2002, the population economically active was 33%, of which 99% were employed, which in absolute numbers is estimated to be 14,000 people (INE, 2002).  Table 4.14 shows the 2002 figures by occupation in Patzún; however, these figures are a very rough approximation because there is no data available for the majority of the population (67%). Table 4.14 Patzún labour force by occupation Occupation No. of People Unskilled workers 7,454 Trades 2,217 Agriculture 2,751 Services and small scale 606 businesses Mid-level professionals 427 Office workers 163 Professionals, scientists, 251 intellectuals Administration 92 Military 2 N/D 28,363 Total 42,326 Source: INE, Censo de Poblacion 2002  Percentage 18 5 7 1 1 0.5 0.5 0.2 0 67.01 100.0  116 Poverty Guatemala is one of the poorest and unequal countries in the world. Inequity in the country is the primary cause of the high levels of poverty, malnutrition, and limited educational opportunities. Although Guatemala has diverse and rich natural resources, access to these resources is limited to a small percentage of the population: only 1.8 percent of the population owns 56 per cent of agricultural land and the top 20 per cent accounts for 54 per cent of total consumption. Consequently, the majority of the population, 56 percent, lives in poverty and 22 percent live in extreme poverty. However, inequity affects the Mayan people most: 76 percent live in poverty and 38 percent live in extreme poverty; nationally 50 percent of children are stunted, but 70 of all stunted children are Mayans (UNDP, 2005; World Bank, 2003; FAO, 2003; IV Censo nacional agropecuario, 2003).  Poverty in Patzún reflects the national poverty conditions. Based on 2002 statistics, 64.4% of the Patzún population lives in poverty and 16.7% live in extreme poverty. The poverty levels in Patzún are consistent with the levels of poverty for the indigenous population of the department of Chimaltenango, Table 4.15 and Figure 4.30.  Table 4.15: Poverty levels for Patzún and the department of Chimaltenango Poverty levels Total population Chimaltenango Nonindigenous Indigenous Patzún  Chimaltenango Nonindigenous Indigenous Patzún  519,667  314,389  100,444  Nonextreme poverty 213,945  130,410 388,161 49,502  46,432 267,691 31,681  11,655 88,789 8,415  34,777 178,902 23,266  83,978 120,448 17,821  In percentages 60 19  41  40  09 52  02 17  7 34  16 23  64  17  47  36  100 25 75 100  Total poverty  Extreme poverty  Not poor 205,278  Source: Instituto Nacional de Estadística, INE. Encuesta Nacional de Condiciones de Vida, ENCOVI-2006  117 In Guatemala, poverty is defined as the condition where the consumption of the minimum recommended level of 2,172 calories per person is not met; the level of extreme poverty is the condition where the consumption of calories is below the recommended minimum level as well as the lack of other necessities such as housing and clothing.  Figure 4.30: Poverty levels for the department of Chimaltenango, and for ethnicity, compared to Patzún (in percentages) 0.70 0.60 0.50 0.40  Chimaltenango  0.30  Non-indigenous Indigenous  0.20  Patzun 0.10 0.00 Total poverty  Extreme poverty  Non-extreme poverty  Poverty levels  Not poor  Source: Instituto Nacional de Estadística, INE. Encuesta Nacional de Condiciones de Vida, ENCOVI-2006. Implications of Socio-Economic Characteristics for Adapting to Climate Change Similar to the Blood Tribe community, a profile of Patzún has been outlined in order to understand how, when and why it is exposed to climate change and what adaptive capacity the community has in order to respond, cope and develop adaptation measures.  The following is the summary of the social, economic and political characteristics of the community:   Located in an area historically prone to hurricanes    Sensitive to extreme precipitation and wind  118   Very likely to be exposed to increase frequency of hurricanes, decreased precipitation and higher temperatures    Low educational achievement and a high illiteracy rate    A livelihood based on agriculture that is completely dependent on rainfall    Increasing integration to a global market economy    An increase in the cultivation of export crops with a shift toward an intensification of agriculture, cultivation of steep slopes, increase of soil erosion and the use of some irrigation that further stresses an already precarious supply of drinking water    A small land base where agricultural-suited land has already been exhausted    Increasing and high density population    High rates of poverty and extreme poverty    Crowded housing conditions    Continuation of traditional livelihood activities with associated knowledge and practices    Diversity of livelihoods  The Blood Tribe and Patzún share a history of colonial and present day marginalization and disenfranchisement that has shaped their social, economic and environmental conditions. Compared to the conditions of other people in Alberta the Blood Tribe has significantly lower educational attainments and income; similarly, the levels of educational attainment in Patzun are low in Patzun while the levels of poverty are much higher than the non-indigenous population. The Blood Tribe people’s traditional livelihood disappeared with the decimation of the buffalo and the people were confined on their present day reservation. Although the Blood Tribe has vast agricultural lands, compared to the people of Patzún, non-indigenous farmers farm most of the lands. Although some Blood Tribe members’ livelihoods depend on the leasing of lands to nonindigenous farmers, most other people do not depend on their natural resources for their livelihoods.  Although the people of Patzún have a diversity of livelihoods, the majority of the people of depend on the land for subsistence farming. Although most people in Patzún continue to grow corn for their own consumption, they are also now growing crops for export primarily to the United States. Agriculture continues to be the backbone of the local economy, providing  119 employment opportunities to a growing population; however, the growing population and a limited availability of suitable agricultural land have forced many members of the community to migrate illegally to the US with hopes of finding a better livelihood.  In both communities, conditions of droughts, floods and extreme precipitation have been observed and, according to global climate models, these climatic extremes will continue to affect the communities in the future. Considering also that both communities face challenging socioeconomic conditions, it can be argued that they are vulnerable to climate change because they are exposed to climatic changes and have limited adapted capacity. The vulnerability of the communities is analyzed in more detail in the following chapter.  120 Chapter Five: The vulnerability of the Blood Tribe and Patzún to climate change According to the Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability (IAV) report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2001), humanity faces greatly challenges in order to provide sufficient food, clean water and other basic needs for the poor. Unabated climate change, therefore, will heighten the vulnerability of the poorest sectors of society and limit their opportunities for equitable standards of living. Indigenous peoples from around the world often constitute the poorest sectors of society and have stated, “the most vulnerable communities to climate change are Indigenous Peoples and impoverished local communities occupying marginal rural and urban environments” (Indigenous Peoples Kyoto Water Declaration, 2003). The IPCC in its 2001 IAV report notes that for indigenous peoples the change from a livelihood of subsistence, which was much more flexible to climate variability, to a form of livelihood more closely linked to commercial activities reduces their coping options. For indigenous communities whose subsistence living has virtually disappeared or has been greatly eroded, climate change poses great challenges for the continuity of their cultures and identities. To assess the vulnerability of the Blood Tribe and Patzún to climate change requires an analysis within a broader context, as discussed is Chapter 2, whereby specific social and economic conditions have created specific challenges and opportunities in each community. An examination of these challenges and opportunities is important in understanding why and how vulnerable the communities are to droughts, floods, extreme precipitation and strong winds that have periodically affected them. As discussed in Chapter 4, specific institutional policies and arrangements have reshaped, in different ways, each community’s relationship with the environment and their own social relations. The reshaping of people’s relationship with the environment and with each other influences the vulnerability of the community to climate change. 5.1 Blood Tribe 5.1.1. Vulnerability Indigenous communities in Canada, in addition to the possibility of being physically more exposed to climate hazards, also struggle with the legacy of an imposed governance system and a  121 system of resource management, giving them little or no control over waters flowing over their territories. They also continue to be affected by deep emotional, physical and psychological scars from their experience of Residential Schools and colonialism.  The Blood Tribe people are still affected by some of these experiences. Since European contact, the Blood Tribe people have faced an incremental loss of their traditional livelihood based on the hunting of buffalo, and at present only a small percentage of the population practices hunting of some ungulates, fishing, berry picking and medicinal plants.  Instead of relying on their own resources for their livelihood, the majority of the Blood Tribe people’s livelihood depends on the annual transfer of funds by the Canadian Federal government for housing, health, education, social welfare, economic development and various other community needs13–funds promised upon the signing of Treaty 7 in 187714. An audited financial report dated March 31, 201215, shows that the community had revenue of $133 million, of which $12 million was for Social Assistance, $2 million for Economic Programs and $3 million for Employment and Skills Training, and controversially, $1.7 million for the Chief and Council’s salary, honoraria and travel expenses.  The combination of the dependence on Canadian government funds, the erosion of their traditional livelihood and the residual impacts of the Residential Schools has resulted in social and economic conditions that some members of the community liken to Third World conditions. These conditions, as described in Chapter 4, include high levels of unemployment, poor housing, low levels of education and low levels of income. The afflictions derived from these difficult social and economic conditions include violence, addictions and poor health. Not surprisingly, the social problems that the Blood Tribe people encounter and live with on a daily basis are their 13  The annual funds transferred to the Blood Tribe by the Canadian Federal government amounts to $120 million. Of these, $117 million is destined for the social needs in the community and $3 million for economic development (BT12, pers. Comm., 2008). 14 Treaty 7 was signed in 1877 between several Blackfoot First Nations communities—settled in what today is southern Alberta—and the government of Canada. It is one of the 11 numbered treaties signed between First Nations and the government of Canada. First Nation communities signatories of Treaty 7 include the Piikani, Blood Tribe, Siksika, Stoney and Tsuu Tina (Indian and Northern Affairs Canada [online] [accessed December 2006]. Available from the World Wide Web: 15 Available at: and at:  122 primary concerns.  Weather extremes like flood and droughts have affected the Blood Tribe community, but so far, the impacts on the community have not been sufficiently acute to surpass the negative impacts of the difficult social and economic conditions. Impacts of floods and droughts exacerbate the existing social and economic stresses on the community, but for the Blood Tribe finding solutions to poverty, unemployment, housing and other social problems are of greater priority, and implementing strategies of adaptations to climate change take on a lesser urgency.  5.1.2 Blood Tribe environmental exposures  The fieldwork conducted in the Blood Tribe revealed that the main weather related exposures that the community has been experiencing include changes in temperature, droughts and floods. Temperature Khandekar (2002) observed that there has been an increase in average temperature over the last 50 years in the prairies; particularly a decrease in extreme winter colds and an increase in winter warm spells in Alberta. Lapp et al. (2009) generated future climate scenarios for the area where the Blood Tribe is located and concluded that by 2050 the average temperature in the area will increase significantly compared to average temperature in the 1960s.  Some Blood Tribe members have noticed an increase in temperature. Some respondents noted that the winters are not as cold as before and that there is less snow; some observed that in the past they used to get as much as 1.3 -1.5 m of snow, but not anymore. The snow that they receive today is little and it does not stay on the ground for very long. Some respondents also said that over the last few years they have noticed cooler summers compared to previous years.  Some Blood Tribe respondents proposed that some possible consequences of the change in temperature observed in the community include more incidences of colds in the winter time; more mosquitoes in the summer time; children do not go sleighing anymore because of the lack of snow and some birds no longer migrate.  123 An evidence of the negative impacts of the change in temperature was the experience of the Blood Tribe Agricultural Project (BTAP), which lost crops in 2004 because heat was not sufficient for the growth and maturing of the crops. Also, according to some respondents, because of warmer winters there have been more grassfires during the early spring. Floods Due to the geographic location and topography of the Blood Tribe, floods occur regularly. Surrounded by large rivers and with a flat topography the community is in a flood zone. In recent years, the Blood Tribe has experienced severe floods such as in 1995, 2002 and 2005. According to community respondents, the flood of 1995 was worse than floods of 2002 and 2005; unfortunately, there was no documentation available of the 1995 flood to verify the cost of the damage. According to the Blood Tribe Housing Department (pers. comm., 2005), the costs of the 2002 and 2005 floods were $8 million and $6.5 million, respectively.  In 2005, floods damaged about 600 out of 1280 total homes in the Blood Tribe community. Flooded basements, sewer backups and leaks caused the damage. Homes most affected were those located along or nearby rivers and homes in poor condition. The estimated cost of the damaged homes was $ 6.5 million. Initially, homeowners and the Blood Tribe bore most of the costs of the damage, but subsequently the cost of the repairs, reconstruction and relocation of some of the homes was reduced through compensation from insurance companies and emergency aid under the Alberta Emergency Program and Indian and Northern Affairs Canada (INAC). The relocation of some of the homes was possible through funding from INAC (BT32 and BT36, pers. comm., 2008). A community member described the flooding of homes in 2005: [T]he water was coming down so fast that…there were roofs damaged, but there were also structural problems inherent in the home that…with that much rain, [the homes of] people were getting flooded, water [was] coming through the windows and the doors. There were a number of houses down here where the water table just came up past through the level of the door, with the basement flooding out and causing a lot of damage (BT7, pers. comm., 2005).  According to the Blood Tribe Public Works department, the 2005 flood damaged the well that supplied drinking water for one of the communities; the well was damaged by excess silt and it  124 was replaced at a cost of $ 800,000. Runoff from the floods contaminated community and private wells and consequently the community was under a boil-water advisory; many residents had to buy water at that time.  Floods have also added extra costs to the maintenance of roads in the community; most of the roads in rural areas are not paved and floodwater washed them out. Fortunately, since the 2002 floods, the Public Works department has improved the roads by increasing compaction and improved drainage (BT3, pers. comm., 2005).  Figure 5.1: 2005 flood impacts in the Blood Tribe  Source: Blood Tribe official website:  125 The banks of the Belly River, one of the rivers that run along the community, have been increasingly eroding because of the past few floods. Homes affected most by floods were those located in valley-bottoms and along the Belly River. Some homes located along the Belly River are close to the eroding banks and they are at risk of falling off into the river. One of the respondents, whose home is located along the Belly River, mentioned that over the last three floods the eroding bank of the river has been getting closer to his home. The respondent has lost a portion of his property because of the erosion of the riverbank. Other homes located along the river have also had similar losses to the approaching riverbank. According to the respondent, a member of his family had to stop farming because of the 1995 flood the river flow washed away his irrigation equipment.  The Blood Tribe Agricultural Project (BTAP), which is one of the largest irrigation operations in Canada, had some of its irrigation pumps damaged by the recent floods. According to one of the BTAP employees, the cost of repairing the damaged pumps was significant: “the pumps to be repaired […] is going to cost $ 27,000. We went to disaster services and they are going to cover the cost for that” (BT6, pers. comm., 2005).  Most of the Blood Tribe lands are leased out to non-First Nation farmers that live nearby the community and these farmers bear all of the weather related risks to the crops. Farmers sign lease contracts with the Blood Tribe and they pay the lease regardless of the impacts of droughts or floods. During the 2005 floods, about 15-20 acres were not cultivated because they were submerged under water at the time of seeding, and some of the lands had to be re-seeded because excess precipitation washed off some of the seeds, and in some other cases the seeded lands failed to germinate due to excess precipitation (BT35 pers. comm., 2008).  Table 5.1 shows the types of land-use by ownership in the Blood Tribe. The two agricultural entities, KABC and BTAP, utilize and manage the 20 percent of Blood Tribe lands for cropland and grassland. Blood Tribe members who have occupancy rights to the land obtain direct personal/private income from the land leased out, whereas the income that KABC and BTAP receive from the leases goes toward funds that the Blood Tribe government then uses for the many needs in the community.  126 Table 5.1: Major types of land use by ownership, Blood Tribe Land Use  Dryland Grassland Irrigated Grassland Irrigated Cropland Dryland Cropland Total Agricultural Area Other Area Total Area of the Reserve  Kainai Agricultural Business Corporation (Ha) 7648.51 915.40 8236.97 16800.93  Blood Tribe Agricultural Project (Ha)  7438.12 2628.84 10066.96  Occupants (Ha)  Total Area (Ha)  45693.06  53341.61  242.81 63505.70 109441.57  8596.33 74371.51 136309.46 8066.19 144375.65  Percent Percent of Total 12.3 7.4 80.3 Agricultural Area Source: Blood Tribe Land Management, Special Report, 2006 (Wittrock, 2008)  100.0  According to the Lands Department, income from the leased out lands include $40.00 per acre for dryland and $150.00 per acre for irrigated land. At the very least, the total income obtained from the leasing of these lands is $1 million per year, which is a significant economic driver in the community. If extreme events become more frequent and predictable, non-First Nation farmers may not want to continue leasing Blood Tribe lands because these extreme events will only cause them losses. The prospects of not being able to lease out these lands because of climate related events would constitute a harsh economic drawback to the community.  Floods have also affected the operations of Kainai Resources (KR), the Blood Tribe entity that manages the oil and gas resources of the community. The flood of 2005 forced KR to shut down for two months seven of its oil wells located near the river bottom. According to a KR employee, the cost of shutting down the wells was approximately $20,000. The employee described how they dealt with the affected oil wells during the 2005 floods:  They [oil wells] were above the 25-year flood line, but I guess this was the 50-year flood that came, so it was hard. We were in our full flood contingency plan with that one. We sealed everything off; we hauled the oil in the oil tanks to a different oil well site, filled the oil tanks with fresh water so they didn’t float off, and added extra berms to add height to the edges, it went very well. (BT4 pers. comm., 2005) Community members had a divided opinion on whether the on-stream reservoirs on the rivers that run along the community minimized or increased the impacts of the floods. Some believe that the excess water captured and impounded in the reservoirs on the St. Mary’s and Waterton  127 Rivers minimized the impacts of the 2005 flood. The impounded was released slowly, thus minimizing the velocity of the flow and minimizing the damage downstream. Others, however, believe that the rapid and heavy precipitation filled the dams too quickly and the impounded water had to be released while the precipitation was still very strong, therefore compounding the damage of the rapid and heavy water flow downstream.  Between flood and drought events, floods have affected the community most. The need for a rapid response to flooded homes and businesses and damaged infrastructure such as roads and sources of potable water has stressed the resources and personnel of the community’s emergency services. During times of emergency, the shortage of housing and community building facilities has limited the ability of the Blood Tribe to help flood victims:  A lot of the Tribe-owned buildings that are supposed to be shelter are in poor repair or in the flood plain. That was one area that we realized fairly quickly this year. We had to move our emergency shelter after the first day because of the condition of the building, [which] used to be the school (BT7 pers. comm., 2005).  Mould is a big problem in on-reserve First Nation homes due to substandard housing conditions (Durbin, 2009), and likely also overcrowding. In the Blood Tribe, mould is a problem and some respondents associated flood events with mold incidences. Indoor mold causes respiratory illness such as asthma; therefore, flooded homes and an increase in mold incidences can add further stress and health risks on the people. When I was living there, during the flood of 2001…and then there was one in 1995–the one in 1995 was really bad–the water went right up to the back stairs…underneath all the insulation, and everything was all wrecked and the house smelled really musty. They had to rip off all of the bottom of the trailer so that they could dry it; most of the houses on that end had [walls] ripped off to dry them out…after several months then they put back the bottoms again, but you could still smell the must, the dampness…I was just glad to get out of there (BT17 pers. comm., 2005). Droughts It appears that the community has sufficient water for domestic use, which is obtained mostly from the communal wells; some households have their own private wells. The majority of the respondents said that there are no problems with the supply of water for domestic use. For  128 households that are connected to a water line there are no problems with supply or quality. The 500 households that have water hauled in to fill the cisterns, at times may face some delays in waiting for the delivery of their water.  According to some of the community members, some of the private wells have dried up in recent years. Unfortunately, there was no data available on the number of private wells that have gone dry.  Data was also not available on the number of dugouts or whether these dugouts are used in times of droughts. A few of the respondents mentioned that there is a large number of grassfires in the community, but there were no documented records of their impacts, or their total number, although some respondents observed that grassfires are more frequent during the spring. What is clear is that during the 2001 drought, there were several grass fires and to control them required the help of fire fighters from Lethbridge and Fort McLeod (BT32, pers. comm., 2008). As explained in the previous section, agricultural losses as result of floods have not affected the community greatly because the impacts have been borne by the farmers who lease the land. Similarly, there have been drought impacts to agriculture but the losses have affected the farmers who lease the land. For example, during the drought of 2001, some of the farmers leasing the land had to re-seed due to poor germination (BT35, pers. comm., 2008).  Lease contracts with non-First Nation farmers are typically for three years and there are no provisions in these contracts to review the lease arrangement in the event of a drought or flood. To date it appears that the leasing of agricultural land to non-First Nation farmers provides a steady and stable income for the members of the community who have occupancy rights to the land. In the future, however, the non-First Nation farmers may negotiate lease contracts of oneyear duration in order to avoid bearing all the impacts of more frequent extreme events, or they may want to pay less for the leases, in which case the Blood Tribe community will bear some of the economic impacts of extreme events.  Agricultural impacts due to droughts have affected KABC and BTAP. The 2001 drought, which affected most of the Canadian prairies, caused losses to the Kainai Agribusiness Corporation (KABC). Drought conditions caused the loss of feed for the 750 cattle herd. Although some feed  129 was procured, KABC reduced the size of the herd from 750 to 200. The cost of this operation could not be ascertained. The combination of the drought and the subsequent Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE), mad cow disease, case in Alberta, reduced the size of the heard to 200.  Right now, we have about 200 cattle. We had about 750 before the drought. We downsized and then we got BSE. The drought affected [the herd] a lot more than the BCS because the grass was burning up and it wasn't feasible to feed them. We had to sell some and the population has remained small (BT5, pers. comm., 2005). Water shortage during the 2001 drought also affected the operations of BTAP. Water users in the province of Alberta are allocated water through licences and the Blood Tribe is allocated enough water to irrigate 25,000 acres of land managed by BTAP. However, during the drought of 2001, like other water users in the province, BTAP was requested to reduce their water use, but the amount of water reduction was not documented nor the impact of this reduction.  The allocation of water by the province of Alberta is a contentious issue for the Blood Tribe community, as discussed in Chapter 4, and claim that they do not have to abide to Alberta’s water allocation management plan because they have special rights regarding water access to the rivers as per the treaty agreement signed with Canada. Until the Courts settle the claim, the Blood Tribe will continue to question the water allocation practices, especially during drought events.  Other impacts of droughts that have directly affected the community include cracked and damaged cisterns and septic tanks. Decreased moisture caused cracks in the soil and these cracks were large enough to crack cisterns and septic tanks; the consequence of cracked cisterns was water advisories for boiling water. Cracked cisterns and septic tanks had to be repaired or replaced. The cost of replacing one cistern was estimated to be around $5,000 (BT32, pers. comm., 2008). Other weather related risks and events Strong winds cause damage to homes in the Blood Tribe and this damage compounds the poor housing conditions in the community. One of the respondents described the cascading damage that strong winds can have on substandard housing conditions:  130 [I]t’s very windy here…and we have some houses out there that have sidings; before they had wooden sidings and they didn’t blow off, then they started changing to the vinyl sidings, and those can’t handle the wind, they get blown off. Even the soffits on the roof, they are blown off because those are vinyl too. And pigeons get into the roof, so that’s another environmental health issue. Once a pigeon finds that open area, a whole bunch of them move in, and people do get sick from the feces…so these are the problems we are exposed to (BT24 pers. comm., 2005).  Some of the respondents expressed concern about the quality of the water from the rivers flowing by the Blood Tribe territory. Some fear that pollutants such as pesticides and nitrates are affecting the river ecosystem and believe that frogs have disappeared from the river ecosystem and that they would not eat fish caught from the rivers.  A study conducted in the Oldman River Basin showed that in some portions of the river there was a positive correlation between the maximum concentrations of nitrogen, nitrate and phosphorous and feeding operations and irrigated lands; on the other hand, there was correlation between low concentrations of these nutrients and the native prairie. The study also showed that irrigation return flows and urban storm outfalls contained pesticides residues including 2,4-D, diclorprop, mecoprop and dicamba (Koning et al., 2006).  Excess, lack and timing of precipitation affect the amount of runoff and its content from the farms that surround the Blood Tribe. The health of the river ecosystems in the Blood Tribe depends partly on the runoff entering the river flow.  There is no food produced for local consumption in the community. At the time of the fieldwork, a small community garden produced a few vegetables, but it was too small to make a significant contribution to the availability of fresh and healthy food in the community. Among the various health challenges in the community, diabetes is one of the main concerns. Type II diabetes is related to diet and a sedentary life style. Availability of and accessibility to fresh and healthier foods would benefit the community. At the time of the first fieldwork, a corner store sold a limited supply of fruits and vegetables, but the store had closed by time of the follow up visit to community the following year. According to a few respondents, people in the community go and shop for food in big box-stores in towns like Lethbridge, Fort McLeod and Cardston.  131 There is an abundance of agricultural land in the Blood Tribe that could be used for the production of food for local consumption. Non-native farmers that lease the land cultivate a variety of crops, and despite the risks of droughts and floods, they appear to be successful in growing crops year after year.  5.1.3 Social and economic challenges  Although the Blood Tribe is endowed with agricultural land, water, oil and gas and ammonite, high unemployment is one of the main challenges in the community. Contrary to 2005 Statistics Canada’s unemployment figures for the community of 36 percent, employees of some of the Blood Tribe departments believed that the unemployment rate was much higher, with estimates that ranged from 60 to 85 percent.  [B]asically, what has happened is that all the employment has been kyboshed by Indian Affairs and our past leaders; our people really don’t have anything to work on, no jobs. We used to have a housing industry, but this for some reason went under…[in] the Kanai Industry, a modular home industry, we built homes for the reserve as well as homes sold outside of the reserve…we had clients off the reserve, but for some reason it went under… we had a farming and a ranching industry. We had, in the north end of the reserve, a feedlot industry, we were running cattle, but today the cattle are not the Blood Tribe’s, they are somebody else’s cattle, that operation went under…so, everything that we had as an employment [source], whether it was seasonal or year round, it’s not there anymore. I blame a lot of it on the people who mismanaged the whole process. There is no economy on this reserve; there is nothing here. If you look at it, there are gas stations, but even those gas stations are struggling. The grocery store that is over here is struggling (BT1 pers. comm., 2005).  The causes of the lack of employment opportunities in the community are various. However, the high cost of business start-ups and the difficulty in accessing capital appeared to be the key factors for the lack of economic activity in the community. From the list of economic ventures mentioned by the respondent quoted above, it appears that there has been no shortage of will and risk-taking by some members of the community to start up some businesses. However, most of the businesses have failed and the only sources of employment in the community are the various Blood Tribe departments.  132 The high cost of business start-ups is one of the key factors for the lack of businesses in the Blood Tribe. For example, according to some of the respondents, to successfully engage in a farming operation requires sufficient funds for machinery and equipment, but one tractor alone could cost up to $100,000. For the respondents, a viable and successful farming operation can only be achieved by undertaking a large operation in order to be able to recover the investments in expensive machinery and equipment; however, financial institutions do not provide loans to most people in the community. The inability to access loans for farming endeavors foregoes significant benefits that could remain in the community. For example, a study conducted in the community regarding the flow of money in and out of the community showed that the leasing of land to non-native farmers results in an annual outflow of $ 48 million from the community. One non-native farmer alone leases 70,000 acres from the Blood Tribe (BT11 pers. comm., 2005). Presumably, the $ 48 million flowing out of the community is the money amount that could potentially remain in the community if they themselves farmed the land and had local businesses. We did this economic study, there’s about $ 48 million that leave the reserve annually; this is lost income from land, and what’s grown on the land, forage, cereal crops, that’s the biggest amount of the $48 million that goes out, and then there is quite a bit goes out for vehicles, clothing, electronics, and even medicine, there’s a lot of people that fill their prescriptions, in Cardston and Lethbridge (BT11 pers. comm., 2005). The difficulty in accessing loans by the Blood Tribe people, like other Canadian First Nations, is related to their system of land ownership. According to the Indian Act, the Blood Tribe territory is a collective resource that belongs to the entire community. Because the territory is owned collectively, financial institutions do not provide loans for individual housing and business because the land cannot be used as collateral.  According to one respondent, the lack of economic activity in the community accounts for the various other challenges in the community. I don’t know how many millions of dollars are spent on social services and other programs like that…from an economic standpoint we are nothing if we don’t have an economy, that’s why you see so much poverty, suicide, drug abuse, because people don’t have anything to do, but sit back ,watch TV and get into trouble. If we could get our own economic engine started here, people would be a lot more prosperous and happier, and cut down on a lot of the social ills that are upon us. This bad economy, which was forced upon us by Indian Affairs, that’s a whole different story, in my opinion that’s the biggest problem (BT8 pers. comm., 2005).  133 The Blood Tribe has an Economic Development department that promotes and supports new and existing small-scale business in the community through training, management support and funding. Grants of $4000 are specifically aimed to start up small-scale business, but no smallscale businesses, or of any other size, were visible in the community. One of the respondents believed that the grant amount provided is not sufficient for starting up a small-scale business: [Y]ou can’t even buy a car for $4000.00, they expect us to set up a business with $4000.00; they are setting people up to fail, and as far as I am concerned, it’s a lousy system… There are a lot of talented people on this reserve that could be doing businesses if they had a little more guidance and a little more money (BT8 pers. comm., 2005) For some community members, the issue of land ownership is an impediment for accessing loans from financial institutions and it is also a source of friction and conflict among the Blood Tribe people, and even within and between families. Although legally the Blood Tribe people, as stipulated in the Indian Act, own the land collectively, not all members have access to the use of or benefits from the land. According to the Blood Tribe Lands Department, income from about 80 percent of the land leased to non-native farmers benefits only about 10-12 percent to the Blood Tribe who have “occupancy” rights to the land. In essence, occupancy rights to the land in the Blood Tribe equates to having private fee simple title rights to the land on the reserve, except that these rights do not allow the occupant to sell or trade the land to a non-member of the community. The rights do, however, allow the occupant to sell, trade, or give away the land to a member of the Blood Tribe. Blood Tribe members who have no occupancy rights to the land do not obtain benefits from the land nor do they have a place where they can build a home. The majority of the Blood Tribe who do not have occupancy rights to the land believes that it is not right that only 10-12 percent of the community benefits from the land. Therefore, even among family members conflicts arise over who should obtain benefits from the land. According to the Lands Department, in 2005 there were about 100 outstanding land disputes in the community:  The Federal Government has a large stake in the way this whole land tenure has evolved. They say they're not responsible for the current situation, but I think they are. They could assist us in addressing the problem. How do we fix the problem? Right now, we've got a significant amount of disputes amongst our members. According to our records, there were over 400 disputes over lands when I first got here. It's a little over 100 now. There's no documentation or records indicating that this [land] is mine, it was  134 verbal back then. That causes me a lot of stress in this office - these disputes. I guess having said all of that, compared to the other First Nations, we are not in as bad as shape economically. But we're not doing as well as we should be socially. We could be maximizing our resources to benefit a more people (BT9 pers. comm., 2005). Conflicts over the issue of land ownership have created a feeling of mistrust and division among some of the Blood Tribe people and toward Chief and Council. Because of the complexity and sensitivity of the issue and the influence and power of the families that have occupancy rights to the land, land ownership will continue to pose big challenges for the community. Most respondents blamed the Canadian government for the social problems and the lack of economic opportunities in the community; however, they also believed that their own local government, Chief and Council, is partly responsible. The transfer of funds by the Canadian government has not been sufficient to address the various pressing needs in the community, but the apparent lack of accountability by Chief and Council and weak leadership are believed to be contributing factors: We don’t know where that money [from resources] goes. They say that it goes to cap off operations for the reserve, but when you look at it, there are only a handful of people here who are benefiting off this land. Now there is a motion where they are saying, well, we are going to control all our oil resources, oil and gas resources…this is going to happen, but how is this going to benefit the people? It will not. It’s just going to disappear that much faster [the money], so everything that the people on this reserve feel that—or they should— by nature, by law, should be benefiting them, is not. So people are left…well you see them walking around, they don’t have anything, while you see others driving brand new vehicles (BT1 pers. comm., 2005). The Chief and Council need to put their feet down and [see] where the money is going. When the dollar becomes your almighty, then you start having problems. They [Chief and Council] have to start sitting down with the people. It goes to their heads and they forget about us. There's no communication with the people. They don't come down to our level (BT13 pers. comm., 2005). We just had an election 7 months ago. During the election, everyone [politicians] promised transparency: “there is going to be a huge change, we are going to work for the people, blah, blah, blah.” We’ve heard this for so many years…and some people did get back in, but it is the old boy’s club…they have no new ideas to introduce to the people to help them start their own economy (BT1 pers. comm., 2005).  135 The social and economic challenges, the mistrust in Chief and Council and the tensions over the issue of land ownership in the community, all contribute to a feeling of an uncertain future for some members of the community and a breakdown of social cohesion. The findings for this research project showing that the main concerns in the community are social and economic, are consistent with the findings from a consultation done with over 300 hundred members of the community for the development of the Blood Tribe Community Development Five Year Master Plan, 2005—2009: Building Safe and Healthy Communities. These findings indicate that the various social and economic issues are the primary concern of the Blood Tribe people. People consulted for the 5-year master plan indicated that the main concerns in the community included alcohol and drugs, community and family violence, lack of employment and poverty, lack of recreational programs, and lack of parenting skills.  One of the respondents when asked whether the impacts of climate change were of concern in the community commented that unless “you are a landowner and have crops or cattle, you will not be concerned with issues to do with the land such as moisture… [Otherwise], you live on a day to day basis, wondering where you will get your next meal” (BT1 pers. comm., 2005). Figure 5.2 is a schematic of the relationships among community members, institutions and outside agencies and individuals that create the economic dynamics in the community. The economic well-being of the Blood Tribe people depends primarily on economic activities in the community that are derived from funds transferred by the Canadian government, oil and gas production, hay production by BTAP, a small-scale cattle operation by KABC leasing of land to non-First Nation farmers.  136 Figure 5.2: Interactions among various groups affecting socio-economic status of Blood Tribe members  Source: Wittrock et al., 2008  5.2 Patzún 5.2.1. Vulnerability  The 2012 Global Climate Risk Index indicates that in 2010 Guatemala was the second most affected country in the world by climate related events. Pakistan was the most affected as flooding left a death toll of 1,891 people and economic losses of US $25.32 billion; these losses represent 5.42 percent of Pakistan’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). In Guatemala, the death toll from hurricanes was of 229 people and economic losses for US $1.97 billion, which is the equivalent of 2.8 percent of Guatemala’s GDP (Hammerling, 2011). Guatemala’s geographic location makes it vulnerable to climate events such as droughts, floods and hurricanes. With a steep topography, dense population and the intensification of agricultural activities in lands unsuitable for agriculture make the Guatemalan highlands particularly vulnerable to climate events (World Bank, 2006). During the rainy season, it is very common to find landslides, washed out roads, bridges and crops.  137 According to a 2006 environmental profile of Guatemala, various environmental indicators point to a deteriorating environment. For example, 25 percent of lands suitable for forests only are now used for agriculture. This trend of deforestation has been occurring at a rate of 73,000 hectares per year and over the last 50 years 69 percent of the forest cover has been lost (Instituto de Agricultura, Recursos Naturales y Ambiente (IARNA), Universidad Rafael Landívar (URL) y Asociación Instituto de Incidencia Ambiental (IIA), 2006). Deforestation and agricultural activities are the main causes of soil erosion, particularly in regions of intense subsistence agriculture. The overuse of lands available for subsistence agriculture contributes about 69 percent of total soil erosion at a rate of 102 t/ha/year (IARNA, URL and IIA, 2006).  Climate related extreme events such as droughts caused hunger in 2002 in the eastern departments of the country. In general, climate related events with too much or too little precipitation have caused damage to crops and consequently food security is at risk in a country where agriculture is one of the main forms of livelihoods. In addition, like in other countries of the South, urbanization, a high rate of population growth and the persistent concentration of land ownership stress local ecosystems even further. Climate change impacts represent a greater risk for indigenous people in Guatemala because they have been force to farm marginal lands. Plant (1995) states that in Guatemala, 78% of all farms are less than 3.5 hectares, and the majority of the small-scale farmers farming on marginal lands are indigenous people (Plant, 199).  Patzún is a community that over the last 30-40 years has been undergoing profound social and economic change. It has gone from a traditional agricultural community with a local economy based almost exclusively on the production of food for local consumption to a community that is devoting a great portion of its agricultural lands for the production of vegetables destined for foreign consumers. About 10 percent of its population is living and working in the United States and Canada. Despite the profound changes in Patzún, the economic base of the community continues to be agriculture. The majority of the people continue to produce corn, beans and squash for their own consumption.  Unlike the people of the Blood Tribe, the people do not depend on government support for any type of income. In Guatemala, there is no welfare system, so in Patzún the people must find a way to make a livelihood, which makes them vulnerable when climate change impacts affect  138 their various forms of livelihood. There is some dependence on municipal government support for education and health services and infrastructure, but this dependence is minimal considering that most schools are privately run and only a small health care centre serves 50,000 people in the community. In 2010, the annual municipal revenue was CAN $2.1 million, out of which $90,000 was for the annual salary of the mayor and 7 councilors, $330,000 for administration and operations, and the rest of the revenue, $1,680,000, was used for the construction and/or maintenance of sewer and water systems, roads and school buildings.16  Although the people of Patzún face a variety of social and economic challenges such as crime, high cost of living, lack of jobs and a variety of illnesses, the main concerns expressed by the people interviewed relate to the production and selling of food crops and the availability of water for domestic use.  5.2.2 Patzún environmental exposures  The livelihood of most people in Patzún is based on agriculture, but they also undertake a variety of other activities that supplement their agricultural livelihood. Patzún, like other farming communities in the Guatemalan highlands, have historically experienced weather related events such as droughts, decrease in precipitation and an increase in the frequency and intensity of hurricanes, storms and tornadoes.  Although the rainfall trend since the 1970s in the region shows a decrease, and the temperature trend shows an increase, the impacts in Patzún have not been the result of the lack of rain and rising temperatures, but rather the result of extreme rain events and strong winds due to hurricanes. In the past few years, hurricanes Mitch in 1998, Stan in 2005 and Agatha in 2010 caused major damages to roads, homes, public buildings, water systems and crops in Patzún.  Although the community has been affected by many weather events in the past, it was only recently that the documentation of the impacts of the events has been more systematic. During 16  Note: the figures are calculated from unaudited financial reports available at: ( rmes%202010/Ingresos%20y%20egresos%20por%20fuente%20de%20financiamiento%202010.pdf)  139 hurricane Agatha, in 2010, the municipality produced a report of the damages in all of the small communities affected; though the report was not complete, it provided a very good overview of the damages. This new development to readily document events has been possible because of the recent and rapid use of communication technology in the community over the last 2-3 years. The use of cellular phones and access to the Internet has helped with the flow and speeded up communication among the people, consequently, the documentation of the events has been easier and more accessible. Since 2010, the municipality has a Website where up to date information is easily accessible. Temperature As discussed in Chapter 4, between the periods of 1950-1979 and 1980-2006 average precipitation in Guatemala decreased by 2.7 percent, while the trend for the average air temperature has been increasing since the 1970s (CEPAL, 2011; INSIVUMEH, 2001). Another report (2006) shows that for Guatemala City, in the last 50 years the precipitation trend shows a decrease, whereas the temperature shows an increase, Figure 5.3 (IARNA, URL & AIIA, 2006). As mentioned elsewhere, Guatemala City is 80 km from Patzún; therefore, the precipitation and temperature trends observed in Guatemala City are applicable to Patzún.  Temperature C  Precipitation (mm)  Figure 5.3: Average precipitation and temperature for Guatemala City, 1954-2004  Year  Annual precipitation  Temperature  Logarithmic  Logarithmic  Source: IARNA, URL & AIIA, 2006  140 Respondents did not provide a consistent view on whether the trend in precipitation has declined nor whether the trend in temperature has increased. A few respondents believed that the changes in the temperature they have observed include extremes and warmer temperatures in the cold season, but these changes do not appear to have caused, to date, any negative impacts. Some of the respondents mentioned that the temperature appears to be exhibiting daily and seasonal extremes. The majority of the respondents however, felt that extreme precipitation events have caused the most damage in the community. There are extreme hot and cold days. There is also a lot more wind. At night, it’s colder as well (PA2, pers. comm., 2007). Regarding changes in the weather, there are things that are changing but you notice them only if you pay close attention…I’ve noticed over the past few years that in the cold season, the temperatures are not as cold, and we have less frost (PA14, pers. comm., 2007). There are changes in the climate. When it’s cold, it’s very cold and when it’s hot, it’s very hot. For example if you are in the shade, now you feel quite cold, very cold. And the sun now burns. In February and March, the sun is very hot. When I was a kid it was not like that, now it burns. So, now you can tell that there has been a change in the climate. You cannot tell how much it has change, but you can say that the sun burns more than before (PA16, pers. comm., 2006). Hurricanes, extreme precipitation Hurricanes are historically one of the natural hazards in Mexico and Central America. The frequency and intensity of these hurricanes and other extreme events in the region have left devastation in their wake. Hurricane Mitch in 1998 was one of the recent hurricanes that caused devastation, especially in Honduras and Nicaragua, but in Guatemala, it also caused a lot of damage.  Although Hurricane Mitch caused less damage in Guatemala than in the other affected countries, there were 268 deaths and 106,000 people had to be evacuated. The hurricane caused devastation to roads, homes, schools, water systems and agriculture. The total cost of damages and losses amounted to US $747.8 million. The sectors most affected were agriculture, fishing and forests with a combined cost of damages and losses of US $499.2 million (SEGEPLAN, CONRED & MF, 2010). For Hurricane Stan in 2005, the total cost of damages and losses was US $983 million. The most  141 affected sectors were transportation and housing, with total damages and losses amounting to US $430 million and US $80 million, respectively. Agriculture, fishing and forests had a combined cost of damages and losses of US $77.7 million. The hurricane affected 3.5 million, 669 died and 884 disappeared. About 42,941 people were evacuated to emergency shelters (Comisión Económica para Latin America, CEPAL, 2005).  In 2010, hurricane Agatha left 172 people dead, 98,339 were evacuated to 442 emergency shelters and the total cost of damages and losses was US $475 (Asociación Guatemalteca de Exportadores, AGEXPORT, 2010). Prior to Hurricane Agatha, documentation of the impacts of weather events, or any other events, in Patzún was non-existent. The table below provides a summary of the impacts of the last two hurricanes in Patzún. The municipality documented and reported the impacts of hurricane Agatha within days of the event and made available through the municipality’s website.  Table 5.2: Summary of the impacts of Hurricanes Stan and Agatha in Patzún Hurricane Hurricane Stan Agatha No. No. Communities affected 34 40 Deaths 5 1 Disappeared 0 0 Injured 0 0 Affected people 1716 1500 Families affected 343 N/A Evacuated 1574 552 Emergency shelters 10 12 Damaged houses 434 196 Destroyed houses 381 N/A Schools damaged 5 15 Access roads damaged N/A All Bridges damaged N/A 11 Source: Coordinadora Nacional para la Reducción de Desastres (2005); Patzún Municipality, http://www.Patzú (2010)  142 Figure 5.4: Hurricane Agatha’s impact in Patzún: damaged roads, crops, water system and homes in Patzún  143  Pictures by the Patzún Municipality http://www.Patzú  144 There is no documentation of the detailed agricultural damages caused by Hurricane Stan in Patzún. However, according to CEPAL (2005), the total area cultivated in the department of Chimaltenango in 2005 was 31,964 ha and that hurricane Stan damaged 17,691 ha, which is 55 percent of the total area. Patzún is a typical agricultural community in Chimaltenango so it is safe to assume that the percentage of the agricultural area affected would have been close to 55 percent. According to the municipality’s 2010 report, hurricane Agatha damaged 758 ha of crops: 384 ha of corn, 85 ha of beans, 128 ha of peas, 158 ha of broccoli and 3.3 ha of other crops. There is no estimation of the cost of the damage to the crops, but considering that approximately 6,621 ha of land are cultivated in Patzún (IV Censo Agropecuario, 2003), the cultivated area damaged represents just over 11 percent of the total cultivated area. The impacts of extreme precipitation have affected all aspects of people’s life in the community, as recounted by the people interviewed: These days we also see that when the rain comes it falls fast and heavy –in extreme quantities-- and with very few trees the soil cannot absorb the water and we have a lot of erosion and mudslides. Without trees, there are not roots that hold the soil together. In the past, we had a lot of rain, but it was not like today. Rains today cause a lot of damage (PA10, pers. com., 2007). When the rains, heavy rains fall, they do cause a lot of damages. Two years ago when we had hurricane Stan, most of the water pipes were washed away and to replace them cost a lot of money...The Union Bridge was washed away, so we needed to reconstruct it; and we still have not been able to fix it. Many mudslides blocked roads. The municipality incurred many expenses to rebuild the roads and repair the water system infrastructure. The national government helped with heavy equipment to clear the roads, but the municipality bore the labour and fuel costs. In some places, the municipality had to compensate landowners where the road had to be diverted or expanded to make it work. I think we spend about 47,000 Q [approximately US $6,000] for the right of way. The municipality also provided food to people who were affected. We provided them with corn and beans and we incurred other expenses for emergency (PA17, pers. comm., 2007). When we had hurricane Stan I did not work for two months because the crops were lost. All the peas, broccoli and carrots were lost. Also, when there is a lot of rain and the crops get blight I don’t get to work as much. Although we don’t have our own crops, we are affected through our jobs (PA2, pers. comm., 2007). Extreme precipitation events, according to the respondents, appear to be occurring more  145 frequently over the last few years. If the frequency of these events becomes more consistent, the changes in the hydrological cycle in Patzún will eventually become more permanent rather than transient. The alteration of soil structure and nutrient content because of erosion would constitute additional stress on fragile and overuse ecosystems.  For some, the impacts of extreme precipitation events and their consequences are already resulting in very difficult experiences that force them to choose life-altering measures. Migrating to the United States in search for jobs has become a common livelihood option for many people in Latin America who face dire economic conditions. Many people in Patzún have taken this option to alleviate economic hardship; some of these economic hardships are the direct consequences of extreme precipitation: The reason I left is because I used to grow a lot of peas for export; at one time I had a crop of about 1 ha, but then hurricane Stan hit and I lost the entire crop. I was renting the land that I was cultivating, so the cost of all of the inputs was high. After Stan, I said to myself “I have to work hard so that I can pay for the losses incurred the previous year, so I borrowed more money and sowed a new crop. That year the peas yielded well, but then because of the damage to the infrastructure such as roads and bridges, it was difficult to transport goods even one year after the hurricane. Because of this, there were no buyers for the peas; so, nobody was buying, and if they were buying then the price was very low; I lost more money that year. With all of this debt, I decided I would go to the US illegally so that I can eventually pay back my debt. To go the US I had to borrow even more money, and in this case, I borrowed Q45,000 ($6,400) and had to pay a 10% monthly interest on this loan. So I had to pay Q4,500 ( $ 700) monthly just on interest. So, when I was in jail [the respondent was caught in the US] I did not earn anything; I got deported and have not paid any of my debts and in the meantime, the interest is accumulating. So I have to find a way to go back to the US and try again (PA20 pers. comm., 2007). Dry and wet seasons, and shifting rain patterns As discussed in Chapter 4, precipitation records in Santa Cruz Balanya, near Patzún, show that there is a dry and a wet season in the area. The dry season is from November to April and the wet season from May to October. Farming in Patzún is completely dependent on rainfall. Crops for local consumption, corn, beans and squash are planted in April, just as the wet season begins, and harvested in November and December, at the beginning of the dry season. These dry and wet seasons have historically been the norm and consequently the sowing and harvesting of traditional crops in Patzún have been done in a way that maximizes the benefits of each season.  146 Sowing is done in April to take advantage of the rainy 6 months that follow for the seeds to germinate and grow. Harvesting, on the other hand, requires dry weather, and the months of November and December are the ideal months. After harvesting, corn and beans are laid out in the sun for at least one month before they are stored and then consumed throughout the year. The yields of traditional crops are a function of the consistency and predictability of the dry and wet seasons; there is only one harvest per year of the crops for local consumption.  On the other hand, the cultivation of peas, broccoli, and a variety of other vegetable crops for export has been practiced only during the last 40 years. It is possible to obtain 2 and even 3 harvests of these crops per year, depending on the soil moisture of the land utilized. The soils of lands that are near forested areas can retain moisture for longer periods, and even in the driest months of the year, it is possible to grow vegetable crops.  Although official weather records do not show shifting patterns of the dry and wet seasons, some people in the community have noticed some subtle but apparently significant shifts in patterns, intensity and quantity of rain that is affecting the yields from their crops: I have heard that we already had some frost [early December, which is unusual], so this causes damage to the crops. For other people it causes losses. In my case if the crops are not doing well then I don’t have a job, as my job is completely dependent on how well the crops grow. If the crops do well, I have work (PA2, pers. comm., 2007) In the past, I remember that we had more rain. I remember times when the rains would start falling as early as 11 am (now rains fall much later in the afternoon), so I think there is less rain now. In the past, we could not work for the whole day because of the pouring rain. Now there is less rain Now the rains come and pour but only for a short time, and they cause a lot of damage when they fall. Also, now the rains are unpredictable; in the past the rains would start at mid-May, now it is difficult to say. Sometimes you can see the rainy season starting as early as mid-April (PA5, pers. comm., 2007). For peas, you have to be very careful, when there is too much moisture it does not do well. During the dry season people grow peas close to the treeline where there is enough moisture even though there is no rain (PA7, pers. comm., 2007). These days you don’t earn much from growing peas because of pests and blight. Once the peas get blight, you can’t do anything to fix it (PA5, pers. comm., 2007).  147 Rain patterns and scarcity of rain undoubtedly affect farming, but excess rain also affects the range of other livelihood strategies of the Patzún people. The disruption of road systems affects peoples’ livelihoods based on trading, providing services and labour in neighbouring towns and city.  Rain also affects the quantity and quality of the water supply for domestic use in the community. As discussed in Chapter 4, the people of Patzún have always experienced a shortage in the supply of water for domestic use. With a growing population, and given the limited water supply and availability, water for domestic use will continue to provide great challenges for Patzún. Women, especially, endure the hardship of procuring and storing enough water for cooking, cleaning and washing clothes, and this hardship will only increase as the population continues to grow.  When I wash clothes, I get up at 5 am so that I get a washing place. During the dry season, I get up at 3 am to make sure that I get a washing place and enough water for washing my clothes. If you get up later than 3 am, you may not get enough water (PA2, pers. comm., 2007). In the past, we had a lot more water. Today we have fewer forests; we’ve cut down many trees, that makes it that we have less water. As you can see, people have cut down many trees so that they plant their crops; we have gone far into the forest to plant crops. So, we have less water now. In the past, we had some natural wells, places where the water would collect, and we got our water from those places. We would maintain those water-collecting places, but now we don’t get any water in them anymore, and people stopped maintaining them. In the past, we looked after those places, cleaned and maintained them for our water (PA5, pers. comm., 2007). We don’t have much water. The community of El Llano, for example, has very little water. Women in that community have to walk 45 minutes to a small river where they wash their clothes. They are looking for other sources of water but they haven’t been able to find much water (PA8, pers. comm., 2007) Ironically, recent extreme precipitation events appear to have partly alleviated some of the shortage of water for domestic use, at least a couple of the water sources appear to have more water after hurricane Stan: I rely on the public fountain. We don’t have piped water into our home. We get water from the Culantrillo source. I suffer when I deal with water, but luckily, since Hurricane Stan we have been getting lots of water at the neighbourhood washing place. I don’t  148 remember having as much water as we have now. I wash clothes and the public place and get drinking water (PA2, pers. comm., 2007). Other weather related risks and events  Hurricanes are characterized by heavy precipitation and violent winds. In Patzún, as seen in the previous section, heavy precipitation events have left devastation in their trail. Violent winds have also caused great damage, especially to agricultural crops, and corn is the most vulnerable to winds. Winds knock down corn crops more easily and more destructively. Corn is most susceptible to wind damage when it has reached its full height and when the corn ears are not yet developed. Corn is most susceptible because it grows quite tall compared to the other crops:  This year my corn did not do well. It was knocked down by winds; luckily when the winds came my corn was already well developed so I did not lose that much. I have enough for our own consumption. The weather is unpredictable, sometimes you get a good crop and at other times, you don’t (PA10, pers. comm., 2007). This year my corn was not bad, but not great. We had strong winds this year so the corn was lodged and the yield was not good. Even though you take good care of your crop, when strong winds come, you cannot prevent the winds knocking the corn down. If you didn’t care for the crop, if you didn’t work the soil properly and did not provide nutrients for the crop, then you don’t expect it to do well, but when you have done all you can to care for the crop and then the wind comes and knocks it down, it’s difficult to see (PA13, pers. comm., 2007).  Some of the weather related changes that have been observed in Patzún over the past few years are obvious, but others are not. However, some of these changes have the potential to add further pressure on the already stressed ecosystem. For example, pine forests are already shrinking because of the expansion of the agricultural frontier, but a recent outbreak of pine beetles is damaging the remaining forests.  One of the things we need to do to prevent runoff and erosion and minimize wind damage is to plant more trees, but there are challenges for doing this. I have a small piece of forest, 3 cuerdas (0.34 ha), with pine trees, and then suddenly last year I noticed bugs attacking the trees; these are beetles and have damaged the trees badly. The trees dried up and died and I don’t even know what you can do to prevent this because this is new. On top of that, once the trees were all dead, people cut them down for firewood. Even though  149 the dead trees were on my land, people cut them down as if the trees were theirs. There is no respect anymore. So this is a problem (PA12, pers. comm., 2008).  One of the most significant developments in Patzún over the past 40 years has been the integration of the community into a global economy through the production of agricultural crops for the North American and European markets. The production of these crops has emphasized the use of high-energy inputs.  The adoption by the Patzún farmers of new crops, high-energy inputs, new agricultural practices and markets attest to the power of the forces spurring the globalization of the world economy in search for new resources and frontiers. The consequences of this development for the people of Patzún and their ecosystem are momentous. The people are now devoting a significant portion of their land for the production of food for the export market, which means less land for the production of food for their own consumption; therefore, they are more food insecure. The adoption of new agricultural inputs and practices also disregards their traditional agricultural knowledge and practices and the sustainable management of plants, soil and water.  Even though some of the farmers have benefited from the cultivation of the non-traditional crops, the negative environmental impacts of their cultivation have serious implications for everyone in the community, including the loss of biodiversity, contamination of water supply through the application and overuse of chemical fertilizers and pesticides and increase in soil erosion (Magzul, 2004).  As was presented in the Chapter 4, people of Patzún, like other Mayan communities in the Guatemalan highlands, have faced and endured profound stresses in the past, including stresses on their environment, colonial Spanish subjugation and recent repression by military dictatorships. In addition to these stresses, now they also live with challenges presented by climate change, the adoption of non-traditional agricultural practices and social and economic problems. In this context, the question that rises is, do the Patzún people have the ability to maintain their livelihoods, identity, language, traditional agricultural knowledge and their social systems? The answer is that there are some positive signs that indicate that the people are aware of the risks they are facing and where they need to make adjustments and adapt to minimize the impacts of the multiple stresses:  150 In the past when there was a heavy downpour, you did not see runoff or rivers swelling rapidly. There were more trees back then and the water could infiltrate into the ground more easily. And as some have mentioned earlier, when you bury vegetation, corn stalk, leaves, etc. into the soil, the soil is healthier, also helps infiltrate water, and there is less runoff. As we mentioned earlier, now that some people kill off all the vegetation on their lands, you can see the large amount of runoff that forms. This leads to erosion, washouts, gullies and landslides; the rain does not infiltrate anymore. In some places, you see these impacts more than in others. On steep hills, you see a lot of damage; fortunately, on the flats damage is less. Also, there are places where strong winds cause more damage, places where they are higher up and with less trees and vegetation. These are the changes I have noticed (PA12, pers. comm., 2008). Here we have different types of soils; if you are lucky, you have land where the soil retains moisture, but if you only have land with sand and rocks, it is going to be very dry. In some places where there is no moisture, you can’t grow very much. Of course, in the past you knew that if the soil was not very good you did not cultivate it because it did not yield very much; your work was not worth it. These days, with chemical fertilizer, people cultivate lands that shouldn’t be cultivated— like those with dry and rocky soils, or on very steep slopes—but they cultivate them because with fertilizer they see that the land yields well; but the problem is that this will only last for a few years (PA10, pers. comm., 2007).  5.1.3 Social and economic challenges  The social and economic challenges observed in Patzún are the typical challenges found elsewhere in the highlands of Guatemala. Unemployment, poverty, high cost of living and the inability to influence market prices for export crops are some of the main economic issues that give rise to crime, violence, corruption, mistrust of politicians and migration.  The ability of the Patzún people to persevere into the future given the weather extremes and other climate related changes already observed and experienced, depends on the adaptation strategies they develop and implement as well as on how they navigate and overcome the main social and economic challenges in the community. Undoubtedly, the issues of unemployment, high cost of living and the low prices obtained from for the crops they export perpetuate their economic marginalization.  The people of Patzún are implementing adaptation measures to climate change and other stresses they face, but these measures will be successful and long lasting only if policies and decisions  151 aiming to arrest the unsustainability of human activities are taken on a global scale. However, despite the frequency and intensity of climate extremes and variability that we witness worldwide almost on a daily basis, complacent governments, powerful financial institutions and an elite class continue to promote a global and unsustainable economic system in pursuit of economic growth, stability and the implementation of modern technologies. The externalities of this economic system, including the cost of climate change, continue to affect people in disadvantaged positions such as in Patzún:  The one thing I am concerned about right now is that the things that we need have gone up in price. And because there are many people who grow peas, we don’t get a good price for it. Now the price is very low (PA5, pers. comm., 2007). The most difficult part for me is to afford all of the things that I need to bring up my kids. I don’t have enough money to give them what they need. In addition, of course, young kids don’t know why they can’t get the things that they need. Therefore, I look for various things to do to get by. In our community, we don’t have a lot of work, that’s why many of our people go to the US illegally. Some get there and do well, but others don’t. One of my relatives is in the US illegally and he has been there for 3 years. We haven’t seen him and I don’t know when we are going to see him next. When he went, he went through Mexico and it took him a long time to cross into the US (PA8, pers. comm. 2007). I do many things. I do whatever I can to provide for my family. Now I work for a company sorting vegetables; I work three days a week. I am the only one with a job; the rest of my family cannot get a job. I’ve been doing this for 7 years. With this job, we can barely scrape by. If I could work for more days I would, but for now, it’s only for 3 days a week. Working full time would be difficult as I clean and cook after work, but I would gladly do it to get a couple more days of work a week. I have to commune to where I work. I get up early and get back late at night (PA2, pers. comm., 2007).  In the community of Patzún, current and future climate change impacts are best understood in the context of subsistence farming, which is the main livelihood strategy of the local people, but, as discussed, the community has a variety of other livelihood strategies that are also affected. Because subsistence farming permeates community life, people are very observant and sensitive to changes that affect farming, and this awareness allows them to analyze the causes and effects of some of the activities that prevent or exacerbate negative impacts on their farms and crops. And sometimes, like one of the Patzún Elders commented, the answers to the challenges of climate change or other stresses are not complicated, and rather than finding strategies to adapt to  152 the changes, it makes more sense to prevent the causes by examining the need for the things that we really need to survive and those that we do not:  Our population has grown a lot; there are many people now; but I think that the creator still provides the same amount of goods for us. And, based on what we get, nobody should go hungry, but these days we desire other things other than the basics for survival. Our desires are well above what we should truly be valuing; when somebody desires and wants to buy something they can disregard human life in order to obtain the money for the desired goods. We have changed; we have failed…I think we have been tricked into believing that we need things that we don’t (PA10, pers. comm., 2007).  Although farming in Patzún is completely rain dependent, the decreased precipitation trend already observed in the region does not appear to have greatly affected community’s agricultural activities. However, as outlined in Chapter 4, the forecasted decrease in precipitation during the wet season in 2020, 2050, and 2080, could be as much as 10, 15 and 30 percent less, respectively. Therefore, a decrese in rainfall is a great risk to future farming.  Extreme rain events, however, have affected many aspects of community life, including the destruction of crops and soil erosion. If, as predicted, the frequency of these extreme events will continue, then the community’s agricultural activities will be at great risk, and food insecurity will heighten. Mudslides and erosion can lead to the loss of soil nutrients that will further reduce crop yields, especially on lands that are very steep and unsuitable for agriculture. Recent hurricanes, characterized by violent strong winds and heavy precipitation have destroyed crops. Extreme rain events have led to blight outbreaks, which have affected the crop production. The loss of crops for export has led, in some cases, to the inability of some farmers to pay back loans incurred, which has forced them to migrate to the United States in search for ways to earn money and pay back the loans.  5.3 Vulnerability of the Blood Tribe and Patzún, a summary Climate change can affect all aspects of a community’s life. This chapter has focused on identifying the climate related events that affect the Blood Tribe and Patzún, what community  153 aspects and to what extent they are affected, and some of the underlying causes of why certain community aspects are more affected than others.  In the Blood Tribe, climate related events that are affecting the community include temperature, wind, droughts and floods. Floods have caused millions of dollars of damage to agricultural and oil and gas operations, roads and water systems. Floods have caused damage to homes, and most of the damaged homes are located in flood plains and/or are of poor quality.  In the case of Patzún, some of the climate related changes noticed in the community include erratic temperatures, shifting rain patterns and hurricanes, which are characterized by strong winds and extreme precipitation. Hurricanes have caused millions of dollars of damage to agriculture, water systems, roads and bridges. Damages to agriculture include the loss of crops due to lodging, diseases and soil erosion.  In the following chapter, the focus is on the adaptive capacity of the Blood Tribe and Patzún to withstand the impacts that affect them and some of the adaptation measures that they are implementing.  154 Chapter Six: Adaptive capacity and adaptation strategies People that live in deprived neighbourhoods and communities have limited opportunities for education and employment, and exhibit more stress and poorer health outcomes (Poortinga et al., 2008; Conner and Norman, 2005; Brooks et al., 2005). As presented in Chapter 4, the profiles of the Blood Tribe and Patzún communities, similar to other indigenous communities worldwide, feature conditions of few opportunities for education, employment, and exhibit poor social and economic conditions. Therefore, increasing the adaptive capacity of Indigenous communities to address challenges, including climate change, requires the creation of opportunities for education, employment and democratic spaces that enables community members to pursue a diversity of livelihoods. However, creating the opportunities in the first place is the crux of the challenge.  It is important to recognize that the adaptive capacity of a community is greater when its members can access and use resources (Smit and Pilifosova, 2003; Yohe and Tol, 2002). Secondly, the availability, access and use of the resources by a community is a function of the current and historical social and political power relations, as well as a function of the forces of globalization (Blaikie and Brookfield, 1987; Sen, 1981; Walker, 2005; Kasperson and Kasperson, 2001, 2005; Pidgeon et al., 2003 ). Also, people with enhanced social and economic conditions and with an enhanced knowledge of their ecosystems have more adaptive capacity and develop and implement adaptation strategies in order to cope, mitigate or take advantage of the climate impacts (Smit and Pilifosova, 2001).  Therefore, when assessing the adaptive capacity of the Blood Tribe and Patzún, and consequently the adaptation measures they implement in order to cope with the observed and forecasted climate related events, it is important to keep in mind the various power and economic relations that have shaped their current social, economic and environmental conditions.  6.1 Blood Tribe 6.1.1. Adaptive capacity The more “advanced” we get the more damage we get [from floods]. When we were living in tee pees, you just moved it to higher ground and you were okay, you didn’t have to worry about your basement, did not worry about mold. But now that we are living in  155 houses we are running into that, and have to learn really quickly, our learning curve is really steep. We are living in a crisis situation. We’ve got so much overcrowding, it’s not funny. One house gets flooded we have to move 3 families, and where do we put all these people? (BT2, pers. comm., 2005). Social and economic problems are our biggest factors…we are already in a state of depression, so climate change wouldn’t really affect us as much as someone from the outside. We would survive almost any kind of climate change (BT2, pers. comm., 2005). As discussed in Chapter Four, prior to the arrival of Europeans, when the Blackfoot people relied on the buffalo for their livelihood, they had developed strategies that allowed them to cope with drought conditions that had historically affected the Canadian prairies. These strategies involved an acute awareness of the components of their ecosystem as well as the interconnectedness and interdependence among these components. The non-exploitation of the beaver population led to the damming of rivers and streams that impounded water, which was then available for the buffalo herd in times of drought. As long as some buffalos survived the drought, the Blackfoot people also survived.  The arrival of Europeans led to a dramatic shift in the interaction between the buffalo, beaver and the Blackfoot people. The indiscriminate hunting of buffalo and the exploitation of the beaver population effectively decimated the buffalo herd and with it the form of livelihood that the Blackfoot had relied on for thousands of years. The loss of this form of livelihood resulted in a decrease in the interaction between the people and their ecosystem, and consequently to an erosion of the knowledge that in the past was key to developing adaptation strategies to climate variability.  Once the buffalo disappeared and the Blood Tribe people were confined into a very small portion of the vast territory they had access to prior to European contact; their livelihood options became limited and alien. One of the livelihood options for the Blood Tribe people was farming, which a few of them adopted and were successful; however, this success was short lived. After 20-30 years of farming in the late 1800s and early 1900s (discussed in Chapter 4), some policies by the Canadian federal government made it difficult for the farmers to continue to farm. Some people in the community recall the success of some of the farmers and the challenges they confronted because of government policies:  156 But then, [non-native farmers] they started writing to the government and to the Indian Agents and they said “these Indians are doing better than we are.” So, they changed the policy again: our crops couldn’t be sold in the open market anymore, it had to go through the Indian Agent, and once it went through the Indian Agent, you were only giv