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UBC Theses and Dissertations

Maximizing climate and health benefits in household energy carbon credit projects Freeman, Olivia Esther 2012

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MAXIMIZING(CLIMATE(AND(HEALTH(BENEFITS(IN(HOUSEHOLD( ENERGY(CARBON(CREDIT(PROJECTS(by#Olivia#Esther#Freeman## B.Sc.,#University#of#British#Columbia,#2009###A#THESIS#SUBMITTED#IN#PARTITIAL#FULFILLMENT#OF##THE#REQUIREMENTS#FOR#THE#DEGREE#OF## MASTER#OF#SCIENCE#in#The#Faculty#of#Graduate#Studies#(Resource#Management#and#Environmental#Studies)##THE#UNIVERSITY#OF#BRITISH#COLUMBIA#(Vancouver)##September#2012###@#Olivia#Esther#Freeman,#2012# # ii! ABSTRACT(‘Improved’#cooking#technologies,#which#in#general#are#cleaner#burning#with#higher#levels#of#complete#combustion,#greater#efficiency#and#better#heat#transfer#then#lessXefficient#cooking#technologies,#have#been#generally#understood#in#the#global#community#to#be#a#‘winXwin’#development#intervention#creating#a#multitude#of#benefits.#Yet#as#in#most#environmentXdevelopment#efforts#there#are#many#unacknowledged#tradeoffs#that#exist#under#the#allXencompassing#‘winXwin’#claims.#In#this#study#tradeoffs#made#between#two#coXbenefits#of#cookstove#projects,#climate#and#health,#are#examined#under#the#framework#of#carbon#financing#mechanisms.#Two#methodologies#used#to#calculate#carbon#credits#for#cookstove#projects#are#compared,#the#Gold#Standard#method#and#the#Clean#Development#Mechanism#method.#Different#carbon#credit#scenarios#are#evaluated#for#how#they#compare#to#estimated#health#impacts#when#switching#from#a#traditional#biomass#stove#to#each#of#the#other#ten#alternative#stoveXfuel#combinations#including#three#basic#improved#biomass#stoves,#two#gasifying#biomass#stoves,#two#coal#stoves,#one#charcoal#stove#and#two#liquid#fossil#fuel#stoves.#Tradeoffs#between#the#maximization#of#coXbenefits#were#found#to#exist,#with#carbon#credits#inherently#accounting#for#climate#benefits,#but#not#health.# #The#three#stove#types#achieving#the#highest#levels#of#coXbenefits#were#the#two#liquid#fossil#fuel#fueled#stoves#included#in#the#analyses,#kerosene#and#liquid#petroleum#gas,#and#a#more#technologically#advanced#gasifying#biomass#stove#with#a#battery#powered#fan.#Yet#they#were#also#the#most#expensive#and#the#fossil#fuel#stoves#were# # iii! treated#very#differently#in#the#two#methodologies,#creating#a#diffusion#barrier#to#achieve#the#highest#maximization#of#coXbenefits.# The#Gold#Standard#methodology#consistently#calculated#more#carbon#credits#than#the#Clean#Development#Mechanism,#largely#due#to#its#inclusion#of#methane#emissions#in#its#calculations.#Including#black#carbon#emissions#in#theoretical#carbon#credit#calculations#also#significantly#increased#the#number#of#credits#calculated.#If#accounted#for#in#such#equations#this#could#greatly#increase#the#amount#of#income#earned#per#project#as#well#as#change#how#such#projects#are#designed#and#approached#due#to#the#large#increase#in#potential#credits#calculated.#As#health#and#other#development#benefits#are#not#inherently#included#in#carbon#credit#calculations,#in#order#to#achieve#‘winXwin’#outcomes,#deliberate#decisions#about#project#design#need#to#be#made#to#ensure#such#objectives#are#actually#met#and#not#simply#assumed.# # iv! PREFACE(The#research#in#this#thesis#will#be#published#in#two#peerXreviewed#articles.#Both#will#be#coXauthored#by#my#supervisor,#Dr.#Hisham#Zerriffi#and#me.#The#first#is#based#on#the#literary#review#included#in#the#A"Review"of"the"Literature#section.#The#second#covers#the#main#research#material#in#this#thesis.#The#conceptual#idea#for#this#research#was#proposed#by#Dr.#Hisham#Zerriffi.#I#carried#out#the#literature#review#and#analyses#under#Dr.#Hisham#Zerriffi’s#supervision.#I#wrote#the#manuscripts#for#both#papers#and#Dr.#Hisham#Zerriffi#contributed#towards#the#revision#of#both#in#preparation#for#publication.# ############# # v! TABLE(OF(CONTENTS(( ABSTRACT ..................................................................................................................................ii# PREFACE ....................................................................................................................................iv# LIST(OF(TABLES .................................................................................................................... viii# LIST(OF(FIGURES .....................................................................................................................ix# LIST(OF(ACRONYMS................................................................................................................. x# ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS .........................................................................................................xi# 1# INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................1# 2# A(REVIEW(OF(THE(LITERATURE ..................................................................................5# 2.1# Overview................................................................................................................................... 5# 2.2# ‘Improved’(Stoves(and(Their(Benefits............................................................................. 6# 2.3# Products(of(Incomplete(Combustion:(Health(and(Climate(Implications ............. 8# 2.4# Carbon(Credits:(How(They(Work ....................................................................................10# 2.5# Carbon(Credit(Calculations ...............................................................................................13# 2.6# Measuring(Health(Benefits ...............................................................................................16# 2.7# Comparing(Climate(and(Health(Benefits ......................................................................18# 2.8# Additional(Tradeoffs(in(Actual(Project(Implementation........................................20# 2.9# Knowledge(Gap .....................................................................................................................22# 3# METHODS.......................................................................................................................... 24# 3.1# Overview.................................................................................................................................24# 3.2# Stove(Types ............................................................................................................................24# 3.3# Emission(Factors ..................................................................................................................27# # vi! 3.4# Measuring(Climate(Impacts:(Carbon(Credits ..............................................................30#3.4.1# CDM..................................................................................................................................................... 30#3.4.2# GS ......................................................................................................................................................... 31# 3.5# CDM(vs(GS ...............................................................................................................................32# 3.6# Accounting(for(Additional(Climate(Forcings...............................................................33# 3.7# fNRB(Sensitivity(Analysis ..................................................................................................34# 3.8# Estimating(Health(Impacts:(Individual(Exposure(and(Relative(Risk ..................35# 3.9# Comparing(Health(and(Climate(Benefits ......................................................................37# 4# RESULTS............................................................................................................................ 39# 4.1# CDM(vs(GS:(Carbon(Credits(Calculated ..........................................................................39#4.1.1# Accounting#for#Additional#Climate#Forcings ..................................................................... 41#4.1.2# Fraction#of#NonXRenewable#Biomass................................................................................... 42# 4.2# Health(Performance............................................................................................................44# 4.3# Climate(vs(Health .................................................................................................................45# 5# DISCUSSION...................................................................................................................... 50# 5.1# Choosing(a(Methodology....................................................................................................50# 5.2# Methodological(Game(Changers......................................................................................51#5.2.1# Black#Carbon................................................................................................................................... 51#5.2.2# fNRB.................................................................................................................................................... 52#5.2.3# Propagation#of#Uncertainty ...................................................................................................... 54# 5.3# Reducing(Already(Low(Levels(of(Exposure?................................................................54# 5.4# Maximizing(Climate(and(Health(Benefits.....................................................................55# 5.5# Fostering(Sustainable(Development .............................................................................57# 6# CONCLUSION.................................................................................................................... 59# # vii! REFERENCES........................................................................................................................... 61## # viii! ( LIST(OF(TABLES( Table(1###Average#price#of#carbon#credits#in#2011#for#voluntary#emission#reduction#(VER)#and#certified#emission#reduction#(CER)#credits………………………...…..…13# Table(2###Inventory#and#details#of#stoves#included#in#this#study……………..…………….26# Table(3###Inventory#of#emission#factors#for#each#stove/species………………………...…..28# Table(4###Global#Warming#Potential#(GWP100)#used#for#all#species#in#this#study….…34# Table(5###Climate#and#health#scenarios#ranked#for#different#scenarios………………….46# # ix! LIST(OF(FIGURES( Figure(1###Comparing#the#two#methodologies#for#calculating#carbon#credits#for#cookstove#projects:#Clean#Development#Mechanism#(CDM)#and#Gold#Standard#(GS)………………………………………………………………………………………………………..………….40## Figure(2###Breakdown#of#specific#species#reductions#for#CDM#and#GS……………….…..42# Figure(3#Sensitivity#analyses#of#the#fraction#of#nonXrenewable#biomass#for#CDM#and#GS……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………...43# Figure(4#Comparing#climate#and#health#benefits#for#CDM#and#GS………………………...47# Figure(5#Adjusted#relative#risk#vs#individual#exposure#of#PM2.5#in#mg/day#for#each#different#stove………………………………………………………………………………………………....…48# Figure(6#Scenarios#ranked#by#the#number#of#carbon#credits#calculated………………..49# # x! LIST(OF(ACRONYMS(( ALRI# # Acute#Lower#Respiratory#Infections# BC# # Black#Carbon# CER( ( Certified#Emission#Reduction# CDM( ( Clean#Development#Mechanism# CH4# # Methane# CO( ( Carbon#Monoxide# CO2# # Carbon#Dioxide# COPD( ( Chronic#Obstructive#Pulmonary#Disease# CVD# # Cardiovascular#Disease# EF# # Emission#Factor# fNRB# # Fraction#of#NonXRenewable#Biomass# GHGs( ( Greenhouse#Gases# GS# # Gold#Standard# GWP# # Global#Warming#Potential# IAP( # Indoor#Air#Pollution# IPCC# # Intergovernmental#Panel#on#Climate#Change# LPG# # Liquid#Petroleum#Gas# N2O# # Nitrous#Oxide# NGO# # NonXGovernmental#Organization# NMHC## NonXMethane#Hydrocarbons# NOx( ( Nitrogen#Oxide( OC# # Organic#Carbon# PICs# # Products#of#Incomplete#Combustion# PM2.5( ( Particulate#Matter#Equal#to#or#Smaller#than#2.5#Microns#in#Diameter# PM10( ( Particulate#Matter#Equal#to#or#Smaller#than#10#Microns#in#Diameter# SO2# # Sulfur#Dioxide# tCO2e# # 1#Tonne#of#CO2#Equivalent# VER# # Voluntary#Emission#Reduction# WBT# # Water#Boiling#Test# # xi! ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS(First#I#would#like#to#acknowledge#my#supervisor#Dr.#Hisham#Zerriffi,#for#his#support#and#insight#during#this#journey.#I#have#appreciated#his#openness#and#flexibility#throughout#the#process.#Next#I#would#like#to#thank#Dr.#Andrew#Grieshop.#His#clarification#and#guidance#significantly#contributed#towards#my#understanding#of#the#subject#material.#To#my#committee#members,#Dr.#Michael#Brauer#and#Dr.#Robert#Bailis,#thank#you#for#your#contributions,#participation#and#support.#I#have#really#appreciated#the#input#you#both#have#contributed#from#your#respective#areas#of#expertise,#greatly#improving#my#depth#of#knowledge.# The#completion#of#this#Master’s#was#financially#made#possible#by:#the#Natural#Sciences#and#Engineering#Research#Council#of#Canada,#the#Bridge#Canadian#Institutes#of#Health#Research#Strategic#Training#Fellowship,#and#the#UBC#International#Research#Mobility#Award,#all#of#which#I#am#extremely#grateful#for.# To#my#fellow#colleagues,#a#big#thank#you#to#Reza#Kowsari,#Gerald#Singh,#and#Brian#Just#for#your#technical#and#intellectual#support.#It#would#have#been#a#much#more#lonely#and#difficult#road#without#you.#To#all#my#colleagues#in#the#IRES,#the#Bridge#Program,#the#IDRN#and#UBC,#you#are#awesome.#I#am#so#lucky#to#have#been#surrounded#by#an#amazing,#intelligent,#interesting#and#genuine#group#of#people.#You#are#largely#responsible#for#making#these#last#two#years#so#great.#Lastly#I#would#like#to#acknowledge#the#additional#mentorship#and#support#from#other#staff#and#faculty#members.#I#would#especially#like#to#thank#Dr.#Robin#Naidoo,#Dr.#Tim#McDaniels,#and#Dr.#Hadi#Dowlatabadi.#It#has#been#a#pleasure#working#with#all#of#you. # 1! 1 INTRODUCTION(On#the#surface,#using#carbon#credits#to#fund#the#diffusion#of#improved#cooking#technologies#in#the#developing#world#would#seem#to#be#an#appealing#approach#to#mitigating#two#of#the#grand#challenges#facing#the#world#today:#climate#change#and#the#negative#health#impacts#from#indoor#air#pollution#(IAP)#resulting#in#approximately#1.3#million#premature#deaths#annually#in#lowXincome#countries#and#2#million#globally1#(Mathers#et#al.,#2009).#Roughly#3#billion#people#globally#rely#directly#on#inefficiently#burning#solid#materials#like#wood,#charcoal,#dung#and#coal#to#meet#their#daily#cooking#needs#(Legros#et#al.,#2009).#On#the#one#hand#this#has#direct#environmental#effects#ranging#from#emissions#of#greenhouse#gases#(GHGs)#to#pressures#on#local#forest#resources.#On#the#other#hand,#indoor#emissions#creating#major#health#impacts#and#the#need#to#spend#time#and#energy#collecting#fuel#that#could#be#productively#used#otherwise#makes#this#a#major#development#problem.#Cookstoves#projects#that#can#reduce#or#eliminate#solid#fuel#use,#reduce#indoor#emissions#and#reduce#GHG#emissions#are#framed#as#‘winXwin’#projects#and#have#gained#traction#globally#as#of#late.#This#includes#increased#international#investment#in#proXpoor#cookstove#companies#and#organizations,#the#creation#of#the#international#publicXprivate#partnership,#the#Global#Alliance#for#Clean#Cookstoves2,#which#has#the#ambitious#goal#to#provide#100#million#households#with#improved#cooking#technologies#by#2020,#and#the#opportunity#to#apply#for#carbon#credit#########################################################1#Due#to#the#burning#of#solid#fuels#only.#Globally#the#impacts#are#experienced#in#middleX#and#lowXincome#countries#only#(based#upon#countries#categorized#by#gross#national#income#per#capitaX#lowXincome:#US$825#or#less;#middleXincome:#$825X$10.066#(Mathers#et#al.,#2009)).#2#http://www.cleancookstoves.org/#[Accessed:#September#1,#2012]# # 2! funding.#In#the#case#of#carbon#credits,#cookstove#projects#are#viewed#as#being#one#of#the#few#projects#directly#promoting#sustainable#development#through#the#incremental,#direct#development#and#climate#benefits#they#can#create#simultaneously#(Bumpus,#2009;#Simon#et#al.,#2012;#PetersXStanley#and#Hamilton,#2012).# As#is#the#case#in#other#developmentXenvironment#initiatives#framed#as#‘winXwin’#there#are#inherent#tradeoffs#made#between#potential#benefits#or#‘wins’,#sometimes#creating#‘winners’#and#‘losers’#(McShane#et#al.,#2011;#Simon#et#al.,#2012;#Tailis#et#al.,#2008).#In#an#analysis#of#World#Bank#projects#with#dual#environmental#and#development#objectives#only#16%#were#found#to#effectively#address#both#(Tailis#et#al.,#2008).#In#the#case#of#cookstoves,#Simon#et#al.#(2012)#state#that#some#of#the#challenges#with#implementing#carbon#financed#cookstove#projects#can#result#in#mutually#supported#impediments.#For#example#the#large#scale#at#which#such#projects#need#to#be#implemented#to#be#profitable#can#make#the#already#existing#development#challenge#of#providing#appropriate#uptake#of#technology#on#a#local,#longXterm#scale#an#intensified#impediment#for#project#success.# Though#there#can#be#overall#improvement#in#many#potential#benefits#of#developmentXenvironment#initiatives,#some#benefits#may#be#preferentially#privileged#over#others.#Therefore#the#term#‘winXwin’#contains#many#subtle#nuances#often#not#explicitly#recognized#or#addressed.#The#seduction#of#‘winXwin’#initiatives#presents#the#danger#of#developmentXenvironment#initiatives#resulting#in#varied#performance#with#unacknowledged#tradeoffs.# # 3! Drawing#on#the#literature#and#three#cookstove#specific#case#studies#Simon#et#al.#(2012)#provides#an#overview#of#such#‘winXwin’#nuances#for#carbon#financed#cookstove#projects.#They#stress#that#‘winXwin’#climate#and#development#benefits#are#not#automatically#achieved#through#carbon#financed#cookstove#projects.#Of#particular#importance,#the#definition#of#‘winXwin’#can#have#direct#implications#on#outcomes#of#such#projects#influencing#who#benefits#and#how.#Focusing#mainly#on#development#benefits#more#generally,#they#do#not#compare#specific#tradeoffs#between#the#maximization#of#health#and#climate#benefits,#mentioning#only#that#health#benefits#are#incrementally#created#along#with#climate#benefits.#While#this#is#the#case#in#many#scenarios,#there#are#tradeoffs#that#exist#between#the#maximization#of#health#vs#climate#benefits;#some#stoves#are#optimized#to#reduce#GHGs#while#others#are#better#at#reducing#exposure#to#particulate#matter,#resulting#in#higher#health#benefits#(Grieshop#et#al.,#2011).# This#research#addresses#the#knowledge#gaps#that#exist,#specifically#focusing#on#tradeoffs#between#the#maximization#of#climate#and#health#benefits#for#cookstoves#in#the#context#of#carbon#credit#markets.#As#carbon#credit#programs#provide#large#potential#to#help#fund#cookstove#initiatives#and#the#number#of#applications#for#cookstove#carbon#credit#projects#continue#to#increase#(Blunck#et#al.,#2011),#implications#of#carbon#credit#certification#on#health#outcomes#is#salient.# Additionally#this#research#examines#some#of#the#specifics#in#the#calculations#of#carbon#credits,#comparing#two#different#methodologies,#the#Clean#Development#Mechanism#(CDM)#and#the#Gold#Standard#(GS),#and#exploring#the#impact#on#carbon# # 4! credits#calculated#when#a#more#extensive#set#of#climate#forcings#are#included#in#the#calculations.#Both#of#these#have#a#large#impact#on#how#climate#benefits#are#represented#in#cookstove#carbon#credit#projects,#which#are#then#compared#with#health#benefits.#Potential#tradeoffs#are#examined#in#three#main#areas:#the#choice#of#carbon#credit#methodology,#methodological#considerations#within#the#calculations,#and#how#overall#health#and#climate#benefits#of#carbon#credit#cookstove#projects#compare#for#the#different#types#of#cookstoves#included#in#this#study.# Through#these#analyses,#this#work#touches#on#debates#about#the#technicalities#of#carbon#accounting,#integration#of#measures#for#promoting#sustainable#development#through#carbon#credit#projects,#and#some#of#the#benefit#tradeoffs#involved#in#implementing#cookstove#projects#under#a#carbon#credit#framework.#The#aim#is#that#the#findings#from#this#research#provide#informative#material#that#can#be#taken#into#consideration#in#the#future#implementation#of#carbon#credit#cookstove#projects.# # 5! 2 A(REVIEW(OF(THE(LITERATURE3( 2.1 Overview(To#compare#the#relative#climate#and#health#benefits#of#different#cookstove#scenarios#under#the#carbon#credit#framework#a#summary#of#relevant#concepts#and#previous#work#are#presented.#In#this#section#the#following#areas#are#reviewed:# • the#definition#of#an#‘improved’#cookstove#and#the#corresponding#potential#benefits;# • the#climate#and#health#implications#resulting#from#cookstove#emissions;# • an#introduction#to#carbon#credits#and#the#two#different#carbon#credit#methodologies#cookstove#projects#can#become#certified#under;# • some#methodological#concerns#in#the#current#cookstove#carbon#credit#methodologies#including#the#extent#to#which#climate#forcings#are#represented;# • the#two#estimates#of#potential#health#benefits#created#by#‘improved’#cookstoves#employed#in#the#analyses;# • previous#work#looking#at#tradeoffs#between#climate#and#health#benefits#in#cookstove#projects;# • additional#tradeoffs#involved#in#actual#cookstove#project#implementation;#########################################################3#This#section#draws#on#work#from#two#manuscripts#that#are#being#prepared#for#publication.#Sections#2.2,#2.3,#part#of#2.6,#2.7#and#2.8#draw#on#work#written#for#publication#in#the#Forestry" Chronicle.#This#paper#has#been#accepted,#but#not#yet#published.#Sections#2.4,#2.5,#part#of#2.6#and#2.9#are#from#a#manuscript#under#preparation#to#be#submitted#to#a#peerXreviewed#publication#after#completion#of#the#thesis.#The#rest#of#the#material#in#this#document#from#the#methods#section#on#draws#directly#from#the#same#work#written#for#the#second#publication.# # 6! • #and#finally#the#knowledge#gap#which#is#addressed#in#this#study#is#identified.# 2.2 ‘Improved’(Stoves(and(Their(Benefits(Nearly#half#of#the#wood#harvested#globally#is#used#as#fuelwood#(FAO,#2002).#More#than#3#billion#people#rely#on#some#form#of#solid#fuels#(traditional#biomass,#charcoal#and#coal)#to#meet#their#cooking#and#heating#needs#almost#all#of#which#are#in#developing#countries,#the#largest#concentrations#of#users#living#specifically#in#Asia#and#subXSaharan#Africa#(Legros#et#al.,#2009).#A#large#percentage#of#these#households#still#rely#on#some#form#of#traditional#stove#to#meet#these#needs,#as#only#828#million#people#use#an#‘improved’#cookstove#on#a#daily#basis,#more#than#twoXthirds#of#which#live#in#China#(Legros#et#al.,#2009).# #An#‘improved’#cooking#technology#is#a#term#that#is#used#liberally4.#It#usually#refers#to#a#stove#with#increased#efficiency,#more#complete#combustion,#and#better#heat#transfer.5##This#corresponds#to#a#decrease#in#fuel#use,#and#decreased#emission#of#products#of#incomplete#combustion.#As#a#result,#switching#from#a#traditional6#or#less#efficient#cooking#technology#to#an#improved#cooking#technology#has#long#been#considered#a#‘winXwin’#development#project#due#to#the#coXbenefits#that#can#result#########################################################4#See#Smith#and#Dutta#(2011)#for#discussion#about#the#appropriateness#of#the#word#‘improved’#to#describe#cleaner#cooking#technologies.#5#Some#literature#distinguishes#between#‘improved’#cookstoves#that#continue#to#burn#solid#fuels,#only#more#efficiently#and#cleanly,#and#‘modern’#fuels#and#technologies,#such#as#electric#stoves,#liquefied#petroleum#gas#(LPG)#and#biogas#stoves#that#avoid#using#solid#fuels#in#the#household#entirely.#Here#such#distinction#is#not#made#with#both#types#of#stoves#referred#to#as#‘improved’.#6#Traditional#cookstoves#include#‘threeXstone’#fires#and#hand#built#mud#stoves.#Both#are#characterized#by#inefficiency#and#generation#of#smoke.## # 7! (Barnes#et#al.,#1993;#Smith#and#Haigler,#2008;#Simon#et#al.,#2012).##The#benefits#of#transitioning#to#this#technology#can#include#all#three#major#components#of#sustainable#development,#social,#environmental#and#economic#benefits:# • Social(benefits#(Mostly#impacting#women#and#children):#reduction#of#IAP#(Bruce#et#al.,#2000;#Smith#et#al.,#2000c;#Smith#and#Mehta,#2003;#Rehfuess,#2006),#reduced#physical#burden#and#risk#associated#with#fuelwood#collection#(Patrick,#2007,#Wickramasinghe,#2003;#Matinga,#2008),#empowerment#of#women#(Rehfuess,#2006;#Parikh,#2011)# • Environmental(benefits:#decreased#pressure#on#fuel#resources#(e.g.#woody#biomass)#(Barnes#et#al.,#1993;#Rehfuess,#2006),#reduction#of#climate#forcers#emitted#(e.g.#GHGs)#(Bond#et#al.,#2004;#Smith#and#Haigler,#2008;#Grieshop#et#al.,#2011)# • Economic(benefits((See#Barnes#et#al.,#1993;#Hutton#et#al.,#2006:#Rehfuess,#2006):#reduced#expenditures#(if#paying#for#fuel),#time#savings,#increased#productivity,#decreased#health#costs,#potential#engagement#in#other#economic#generating#activities,#job#creation# However,#significant#barriers#remain#for#diffusing#both#improved#solid#fuel#stoves#and#more#modern#fuels#and#technologies#for#cooking,#including#major#cost#impediments#for#the#primarily#poor#and#rural#populations#using#traditional#stoves.# Though#people#have#been#improving#and#experimenting#with#cooking#technologies#for#centuries,#global#interest#in#investing#in#such#programs#through#nonX # 8! governmental#organizations#(NGOs)#and#governmental#channels#first#occurred#in#the#1970’s#(Barnes#et#al.,#1993).#This#was#born#out#of#the#concern#about#world#energy#supply#and#perceived#rates#of#deforestation#(Barnes#et#al.,#1993;#Top#et#al.,#2004;#Elias#and#Victor,#2005).#Hundreds#of#improved#cookstove#projects#have#been#implemented#since#then#with#the#rationale#for#implementing#such#cookstove#projects#shifting#from#focusing#on#relieving#pressure#on#biomass#resources#to#the#combination#of#development#and#environmental#benefits#that#can#be#generated#(e.g.#Bailis#et#al.,#2005;#Elias#and#Victor,#2005;#Hutton#et#al.,#2006;#Smith#and#Haigler,#2008;#Simon#et#al.,#2012).# #There#also#now#exists#extensive#literature#about#various#aspects#of#cookstoves#including:#estimation#of#both#development#and#environmental#benefits#(e.g.#Mehta#and#Shahpar,#2004;#Hutton#et#al.,#2006;#Smith#and#Haigler,#2008),#scientific#analysis#of#aerosol#emissions#(e.g.#Zhang#et#al.,#2000;#Roden#et#al.,#2006;#Jetter#and#Kariher,#2009),#impacts#on#health#(e.g.#Bruce#et#al.,#2000;#Smith#et#al.,#2000c;#Smith#et#al.,#2009b),#critical#analysis#of#project#implementation#(e.g.#Smith#et#al.,#1993;#Hanbar#and#Karve,#2002;#Sinton#et#al.,#2004;#Bumpus,#2009;#Troncoso#et#al.,#2011),#analysis#of#diffusion#business#models#(e.g.#Shrimali#et#al.,#2011;#Zerriffi#,2011;#Chaurey#et#al.,#2012),#and#factors#influencing#adoption#of#new#technologies#(e.g.#Bailis#et#al.,#2009;#Pine#et#al.,#2011;#RuizXMercado#et#al.,#2011;#Wickramasignhe#et#al.,#2011).# 2.3 Products(of(Incomplete(Combustion:(Health(and(Climate(Implications(Incomplete#combustion#during#the#use#of#cookstoves#results#in#the#emission#of#products#of#incomplete#combustion#(PICs),#which#have#implications#for#both#climate# # 9! and#health.#PICs#consist#of:#inorganic#gases#(e.g.#carbon#monoxide#(CO),#nitrous#oxide#(N2O)),#hydrocarbons#(e.g.#nonXmethane#hydrocarbons#(NMHC)),#oxygenated#organics#(e.g.#organic#alcohols),#and#particulate#matter#(inhalable#(PM10),#respirable#and#fine#particles#(PM2.5))#(Naeher#et#al.,#2007).#Nominal#combustion#efficiencies#of#cookstoves#range#from#80X99%#depending#on#the#type#of#fuel#and#stove#that#is#being#used#(Smith#et#al.,#2000b).7#The#higher#the#nominal#combustion#efficiency#the#less#emission#of#PICs.# The#health#impacts#of#the#exposure#to#PICs#are#commonly#quantified#by#measuring#the#amount#of#PM10#or#PM2.5,#that#is,#particulates#equal#to#or#less#than#10#or#2.5#microns#in#aerodynamic#diameter#(Sinton#et#al.,#2004;#Naeher#et#al.,#2007;#Grieshop#et#al.,#2011).#The#constituents#of#particulate#matter#includes#components#which#can#be#detrimental#to#health#while#also#having#climate#implications#(Smith#et#al.,#2009a).#In#particular,#organic#carbon#(OC)#and#sulfates#are#both#climate#cooling,#while#black#carbon#(BC)#has#significant#warming#effects#(Smith#et#al.,#2009a).# While#health#benefits#are#mainly#estimated#by#the#reduction#of#particulate#matter#emitted,#potential#climate#benefits#are#determined#by#the#emissions#of#specific#PICs#and#reduced#fuel#use.#Additionally,#different#cooking#fuels#have#different#climate#benefits#associated#with#them.#For#example,#charcoal#and#fossil#fuels#(including#coal)#########################################################7#This#should#not#be#confused#with#the#efficiency#of#heat#transfer#or#the#total#energy#efficiency#of#combustion,#which#can#be#well#below#20%#for#traditional#stoves.#Where# nominal"combustion"efficiency#is#the#amount#of#chemical#energy#in#the#fuel#that#is#released#as#heat,#heat"transfer"efficiency#is#the#amount#of#heat#that#is#transferred#to#the#pot#and#total" energy"efficiency"of"combustion#or"thermal"efficiency"is#overall#efficiency#of#the#stove#integrating#both#nominal#combustion#efficiency#and#heat#transfer#efficiency#values#together.# # 10! have#upstream#and#transportation#emissions#associated#with#their#use.#Charcoal#production#specifically#has#high#amounts#of#GHG#emissions#even#though#it#burns#relatively#cleanly#with#minimal#emissions#of#PICs#compared#to#other#biomass#fuels#(Bailis#et#al.,#2005;#Grieshop#et#al.,#2011).#Biomass,#if#harvested#at#a#renewable#rate#can#result#in#zero#net#emissions#of#carbon#dioxide#(CO2),#though#there#are#additional#climate#impacts#from#other#climate#warming#PICs#emitted#during#combustion#such#as#methane#(CH4)#and#BC.#In#general,#the#cleaner#burning#the#fuel,#the#higher#the#combustion#efficiency,#and#the#less#fuel#used#for#a#given#cooking#task,#the#less#climateXforcing#and#healthXdamaging#PICs#emitted.#This#can#result#in#the#creation#of#benefits#for#both#health#and#climate,#but#the#amount#of#different#benefits#varies#with#each#specific#technology.# 2.4 Carbon(Credits:(How(They(Work(The#carbon#market#was#developed#to#address#concerns#about#climate#change#by#providing#an#economic#mechanism#to#incentivize#the#reduction#of#CO2#and#other#GHGs#emitted.#Carbon#credits#are#tradable#units#that#represent#the#reduction#of#1#tonne#of#CO2#equivalent#(tCO2e)#that#can#be#used#to#offset#emissions.#They#can#be#bought#and#sold#in#two#types#of#carbon#markets,#the#regulated#and#the#voluntary#markets.#Cookstove#projects#are#one#of#the#many#projects#that#can#become#carbon#credit#certified#when#switching#from#the#baseline#to#project#stoves#based#upon#the#amount#of#nonXrenewable#fuel#that#is#reduced#and#in#some#cases#also#based#upon#their#reduction#of#emissions#of#GHGs.#Currently#there#are#two#main#methodologies#by#which#cookstoves#projects#are#certified#to#sell#carbon#credits:#the#CDM#method#(UNFCCC,#2011d)#and#the#GS#method#(The#Gold#Standard,#2011b).# # 11! The#CDM#is#an#instrument#built#into#the#internationally#negotiated#treaties#to#reduce#greenhouse#gas#emissions#(the#United#Nations#Framework#Convention#on#Climate#Change#and#subsequent#Kyoto#Protocol).##It#accredits#emissionXreduction#projects#in#developing#countries#with#certified#emission#reductions#(CER)#credits,#which#can#be#sold#on#the#regulated#market#(e.g.#European#Emissions#Trading#Scheme).#Industrialized#countries#with#commitments#under#the#Kyoto#Protocol#can#buy#these#credits#to#offset#their#emissions#in#the#most#costXefficient#manner#(UN,#1998;#UNFCCC,#2011a).#At#the#same#time,#developing#countries#that#produce#credits#are#supposed#to#gain#some#development#benefit#from#the#project#as#determined#by#the#Designated#National#Authority#(DNA)#within#the#country.##Since#the#standards#between#the#DNAs#in#countries#can#differ,#this#dearth#of#consistency#results#in#highly#varying#sustainable#development#outcomes.#Due#to#the#lack#of#strong#and#unified#efforts#to#realize#development#benefits#alongside#emission#reductions,#the#CDM#has#been#criticized#for#not#addressing#the#sustainable#development#component#of#their#mandate#(For#a#review#of#the#literature:#Olsen,#2007;#Also#see#Bumpus#and#Cole,#2010;#Cosbey#et#al.,#2005;#Figueres,#2006;#Pearson,#2006;#Sterk#and#Wittneben,#2006).# In#comparison,#the#GS#framework#aims#to#provide#higher#levels#of#sustainable#development#than#those#carbon#credits#accredited#under#other#methodologies#such#as#the#CDM.#To#achieve#this#they#limit#the#scope#of#acceptable#project#types#(The#Gold#Standard,#2011c),#make#conservative#baseline#estimates#and#additionality#evaluations#(Drupp,#2011;#The#Gold#Standard,#2011c),#and#require#stakeholder#participation,#environmental#impact#assessments,#and#the#use#of#their#sustainable# # 12! development#matrix#(The#Gold#Standard,#2011c).#This#strong#commitment#to#sustainable#development#outcomes#in#addition#to#emission#reductions#is#attractive#to#many#different#types#of#buyers#and,#in#theory,#earns#a#premium#on#the#market.# The#GS#framework#can#be#used#to#certify#both#CERs#for#the#regulated#market#or#voluntary#emission#reduction#(VER)#credits.#VER#credits#are#sold#and#traded#in#an#unregulated#carbon#market#to#individuals,#sociallyXresponsible#companies/corporations#and#other#actors#without#regulated#emission#reduction#commitments.#The#GS#CER#credits#are#jointly#certified#under#the#CDM#and#GS#using#CDM#calculations#and#methodology,#but#requiring#the#extra#steps#in#GS#certification#to#ensure#a#higher#quality#credit.#This#can#result#in#the#GS#CER#credits#being#sold#at#a#5X25%#higher#price#than#CER#credits#alone#(Drupp,#2011).#The#VER#credits#are#calculated#using#a#GS#developed#methodology,#which#has#a#number#of#significant#differences#in#comparison#to#the#CDM#methodology.#In#this#study#when#the#GS#method#is#referred#to,#it#is#referring#to#the#methodology#for#calculating#GS#VER#credits.## In#2011,#cookstove#projects#made#up#4%#of#total#VER#credits#sold.#These#projects#are#relatively#new#in#the#market#and#due#to#the#perceived#‘winXwin’#nature#of#the#projects,#fetched#the#highest#average#price#of#all#VER#project#types,#higher#than#the#average#GS#project#price#and#approximately#$4#below#the#average#price#for#CER#credits#(See#Table"1)#(PetersXStanley#and#Hamilton,#2012).#As#future#investment#in#carbon#markets#are#still#uncertain,#the#current#trends#may#change.#Still#cookstove#credits#are#comparatively#highly#attractive#to#buyers,#specifically#in#the#voluntary# # 13! market#as,#“…the#high#price#not#only#reflects#the#cost#to#implement#and#maintain#the#projects,#but#also#corporates’#desire#to#support#projects#with#community#health#and#other#social#benefits”#(PetersXStanley#and#Hamilton,#2012).#Specific#prices#for#cookstove#projects#CER#credits#and#the#difference#in#price#between#average#CER#and#average#CER#GS#credits#were#not#available#for#this#analysis.# Table(1#Price#of#VER#and#CER#credits#in#2011:#all#project#types#vs#GS#projects#vs#cookstove#projects.#Specific#prices#for#CER#GS#and#cookstove#projects#were#not#available.#Prices#were#taken#from:#PetersXStanley#and#Hamilton#(2012).# Average(Prices(in(2011(# All(Projects( GS(Projects( Cookstove(Projects( VER( $6.20# $10.40# $13# CER( $17.38# N/A# N/A## 2.5 Carbon(Credit(Calculations(For#carbon#financing#to#uphold#its#integrity,#it#is#crucial#there#are#accurate#carbon#accounting#methods#representative#of#actual#emission#reductions.#Although#the#GS#method#provides#a#more#detailed#calculation#of#emission#reductions#by#including#more#extensive#descriptions#about#input#measurement#and#monitoring#procedures#(The#Gold#Standard,#2011b),#both#CDM#and#GS#methodologies#have#been#criticized#for#lacking#scientific#rigor#to#accurately#calculate#the#amount#of#emission#reductions#(Johnson#et#al.,#2010;#Bumpus,#2011;#GACC,#2011).# The#costs#of#acquiring#measurements#of#variables#rise#with#accuracy.#A#current#challenge#is#determining#an#acceptable#amount#of#uncertainty#in#calculations#while#not#requiring#such#costly#procedures#that#inhibit#the#ability#of#cookstove#projects#to#apply#for#carbon#credits.#In#both#CDM#and#GS#cases,#the#methodology#for#the# # 14! measurement#of#the#three#primary#inputs,#the#amount#of#wood/fuel#consumed#by#each#technology#(By),#the#fraction#of#the#woody#biomass#(or#other#type#of#fuel)#that#is#nonXrenewable#(fNRB)#and#the#emission#factors#(EFs)#of#technologies,#used#to#calculate#the#amount#of#emissions#reductions#all#include#varying#levels#of#uncertainty#(See#Johnson#et#al.,#2010).# The#fNRB#has#particularly#high#levels#of#uncertainty#involved#in#its#calculation,#which#go#unreported#in#accredited#offsets#(Johnson#et#al.,#2010).#GS#provides#more#guidance#about#how#to#obtain#this#value,#but#both#methodologies#leave#a#lot#of#room#for#interpretation.#As#the#fNRB#determines#the#amount#of#wood#saved#that#is#eligible#for#CO2#offsets,#it#has#a#large#influence#on#the#number#of#carbon#credits#calculated.#The#third#primary#variable,#the#EF#of#the#baseline#technology,#is#misrepresented#by#the#CDM#method#using#a#default#value#based#on#a#weighted#fossil#fuel#mix#(UNFCCC,#2011c).#This#default#therefore#does#not#reflect#actual#EFs#involved#in#emission#reduction#cookstove#projects.#By#contrast,#the#GS#method#uses#either#the#EFs#of#the#actual#stoves#involved#in#the#project#or#the#Intergovernmental#Panel#on#Climate#Change#(IPCC)#default#EFs#for#both#the#baseline#and#project#technologies#(The#Gold#Standard,#2011b).# Though#carbon#credits#represent#relative#climate#impacts#of#each#stove,#neither#methodology#encompasses#all#climate#forcings#in#their#equations.#Emissions#of#nonXCO2#climateXforcing#species#result#in#a#positive#emission#rate#contributing#to#climate#warming#even#in#the#case#of#renewably#harvested#biomass#(Smith#et#al.,#2000b).#Cookstoves#emit#three#of#the#six#GHGs#included#in#the#Kyoto#protocol:#CO2,#CH4,#and# # 15! N2O#(UNFCCC,#2011b;#The#Gold#Standard,#2011b).#In#general,#very#little#N2O#is#emitted#by#cookstoves,#so#it#is#omitted#from#most#calculations8#(Smith#et#al.,#2000b;#Grieshop#et#al.,#2011)#and#therefore#is#not#included#in#this#study’s#calculations.#For#cookstove#projects,#CDM#only#accounts#for#CO2#(UNFCCC,#2011d)#where#the#GS#includes#all#three#relevant#Kyoto#GHGs.#However,#cookstoves#also#emit#climateXforcing#species#that#are#not#included#in#the#Kyoto#Protocol.#One#challenge#with#including#additional#nonXKyoto#climateXforcing#species#is#the#lack#of#agreement#on#Global#Warming#Potential#(GWP)#values#assigned#for#them#or,#in#some#cases,#even#methods#of#measurement.#In#practice#a#number#of#climateXforcing#species#are#left#out#of#both#methodologies:#CO,#NMHC,#BC,#OC#and#sulfur#dioxide#(SO2).# BC#is#commonly#known#as#soot#and#emitted#in#particulate#matter.#Although#it#is#considered#a#‘shortXlived#particle’#persisting#in#the#atmosphere#from#a#period#of#days#to#weeks#it#has#a#very#high#GWP#and#therefore#can#have#significant#shortXterm#climate#impacts#(Bond#and#Sun,#2005;#Kandlikar#et#al.,#2009).#Due#to#its#very#high#GWP,#there#has#been#increased#support#to#focus#on#BC#as#one#mitigation#piece#to#curb#global#warming#(Bond#and#Sun,#2005;#Grieshop#et#al.,#2009;#Jacobson,#2002;#Kandlikar#et#al.,#2009;#Ramanathan#and#Carmichael,#2008;#Reynolds#and#Kandlikar,#2008).#Globally,#household#fires#and#cookstoves#have#been#identified#as#one#of#the#main#emitters#of#BC#due#to#the#inefficient#combustion#of#fuels.#Advocates#of#BC#mitigation#stress#the#additional#resulting#health#benefits#as#particulate#matter#is#simultaneously#reduced#with#BC#through#the#use#of#more#completely#combusting#########################################################8#With#the#exception#of#coalXfueled#stoves#in#some#cases.#Still,#in#this#study,#N2O#is#not#included#for#any#of#the#scenarios.# # 16! stoves#(Grieshop#et#al.,#2009;#Jacobson,#2002;#Kandlikar#et#al.,#2009).#Due#to#BC’s#high#GWP,#including#it#in#carbon#credit#calculations#could#markedly#increase#the#amount#of#carbon#credits#received#from#clean#cookstove#projects.#Including#OC#and#SO29#are#also#important#as#they#have#negative#GWPs,#contributing#to#climate#cooling,#may#also#have#negative#health#impacts,#and#are#coXemitted#with#BC#(Smith#et#al.,#2009;#Grieshop#et#al.#2009).# 2.6 Measuring(Health(Benefits(There#are#many#health#benefits#associated#with#cookstove#projects,#the#effects#of#which#are#mostly#experienced#by#women#and#children#(Rehfuess,#2006).#The#most#cited#health#effects#of#IAP,#which#also#have#the#strongest#scientific#support,#are#chronic#obstructive#pulmonary#disease#(COPD),#acute#lower#respiratory#infections#(ALRI)#and#lung#cancer#(Rehfuess,#2006).#Many#studies#use#these#more#defendable#health#measures#to#evaluate#the#health#implications#of#different#kinds#of#cookstoves.#Including#only#these#three#impacts#of#IAP,#the#emissions#of#concentrated#smoke#from#the#use#of#inefficient#cookstoves#are#estimated#to#cause#1.6#million#preXmature#deaths#annually#(Rehfuess,#2006).# The#IAP#from#solid#fuel#burning#is#the#result#of#PICs#created#through#inefficient#combustion#of#fuel.#The#extent#of#the#health#impact#will#largely#be#dependent#on#the#individual#inhalation#of#particulate#matter#emitted#as#part#of#PICs.#Cookstoves#with#a#venting#system,#such#as#a#chimney,#can#help#to#greatly#reduce#this#intake#fraction# ########################################################9The#emission#of#SO2#is#only#relevant#for#coal#and#kerosene#fueled#stoves#as#biomass,#charcoal#and#LPG#fueled#stoves#have#low#or#no#emission#of#SO2.# # 17! (Mehta#and#Shahpar,#2004;#Smith#et#al.,#2009b),#but#these#emissions#may#still#contribute#to#ambient#air#pollution,#which#could#have#negative#health#implications#in#some#scenarios,#particularly#if#in#a#densely#populated#location#(Zhou#et#al.,#2011;#Wilkinson#et#al.,#2009).# Other#health#impacts#related#to#cookstove#use#include#fatigue,#physical#strain,#and/or#injury#while#cooking#and/or#collecting#fuelwood#(Parikh,#2011).#Additional#dangers#associated#with#collection#of#fuelwood#are#increased#vulnerability#to#sexual#violence#for#woman#and#young#girls#(Patrick,#2007),#and#injury#from#animals#and#other#natural#hazards#(Holdren#and#Smith,#2000;#Wickramasinghe,#2003;#Matinga,#2008).# Although#there#are#other#associated#development#benefits#beyond#decreasing#the#impacts#of#IAP,#health#provides#a#good#comparable#measure#to#evaluate#tradeoffs#between#climate#and#development#benefits#in#carbon#credit#cookstove#programs.#Health#impacts#are#far#reaching#and#can#be#estimated#based#upon#ambient#concentrations#of#stove#emissions#similar#to#climate#benefits#estimated#by#direct#stove#emissions.#Individual#exposure#to#particulate#matter#can#directly#be#translated#into#relative#risk#for#different#diseases#associated#with#IAP.#To#evaluate#health#impacts#of#different#stoves#measures#of#individual#exposure#to#PM2.5#and#relative#risk#are#employed.#Individual#exposure#provides#a#linear#measure#of#potential#relative#health#benefits#of#each#different#technology,#where#relative#risk,#translates#these#exposure#values#to#represent#the#potential#pattern#that#disease#linked#to#IAP#could#follow.#Both#measures#are#based#on#exposure#to#PM2.5,#as#PM2.5#is#a#common# # 18! measure#to#quantify#overall#health#impacts#of#IAP#(Sinton#et#al.,#2004;#Naeher#et#al.,#2007;#Grieshop#et#al.,#2011).# 2.7 Comparing(Climate(and(Health(Benefits(A#study#by#Grieshop#et#al.#(2011)#shows#that#health#and#climate#benefits#do#not#have#a#linear#relationship#for#all#cookstove#types.#Instead,#some#improved#stoves#generated#higher#climate#benefits#(the#reduction#of#GHGs#and#other#climateXforcing#agents)#while#others#generated#higher#health#benefits#(in#this#case#relative#risk#of#cardiopulmonary#and#cardiovascular#disease#mortality#based#on#emissions#of#PM2.5).#For#example,#the#unvented#charcoal#stove#included#in#the#analysis#performed#better#than#most#of#the#biomass#stoves#in#reducing#relative#health#risk,#but#was#one#of#the#top#emitters#of#GHGs10.#The#stoves#with#the#highest#‘winXwin’#benefits,#having#both#low#emission#of#GHGs#and#PM2.5,#were#the#liquid#fossil#fuel#stoves11#included#in#the#analysis,#the#kerosene#and#liquid#petroleum#gas#(LPG)#stoves.#Another#study#by#Mehta#and#Shahpar#(2004),#also#find#fossil#fuels#stoves#to#have#the#highest#health#benefits#in#comparison#with#other#improved#biomass#stoves,#but#note#that#kerosene#creates#slightly#more#IAP#than#LPG.#Additionally#they#state#kerosene#has#other#health#dangers#associated#with#its#use,#such#as#poisoning#and#carcinogenic#effects,#making#LPG#the#best#overall#stove#for#achieving#health#benefits.# ########################################################10#Due#to#the#large#amount#of#GHGs#emissions#involved#in#charcoal#production#the#analysis#included#charcoal#production#in#the#total#amount#of#GHG#emissions.#11#When#fossil#fuels#are#referenced#from#here#on#they#refer#to#the#clean#burning#‘modern’#liquid#fossil#fuels,#specifically#in#this#case#kerosene#and/or#liquid#petroleum#gas#(LPG),#excluding#coal#unless#otherwise#noted.# # 19! Though#Grieshop#et#al.#(2011),#provides#the#most#comprehensive#demonstration#of#climate#and#health#tradeoffs#in#cookstove#projects,#other#studies#also#have#found#tradeoffs#in#other#cookstove#scenarios.#In#a#review#of#China’s#national#cookstove#program,#Sinton#et#al.#(2004)#found#that#although#the#program#was#seen#as#one#of#the#largest#successes#of#cookstove#distribution#on#a#large#scale,#health#benefits#were#not#always#automatically#generated#along#with#the#targeted#environmental#benefits#included#in#the#program’s#objectives.#This#demonstrates#an#unintentional#tradeoff#made#between#climate#and#health#benefits#for#a#project#who’s#main#objective#was#to#reduce#pressures#on#biomass#resources.#Another#study#by#Bailis#et#al.#(2005)#specifically#examined#climate#and#health#tradeoffs#between#charcoal#and#fossil#fuel#stoves.#They#found#that#although#both#have#relatively#high#health#benefits,#charcoal#stoves#have#high#negative#climate#impacts#from#the#emission#of#GHGs#both#during#production#and#the#burning#of#fuel.#Again#fossil#fuel#stoves#performed#the#best#for#both#climate#and#health#outcomes.# In#the#case#of#carbon#credits#the#CDM#does#not#accept#projects#switching#to#nonXrenewable#fuels#unless#it#is#from#high#to#lowXcarbon#intensive#fossil#fuels#(e.g.#coal#to#LPG).#Therefore#the#majority#of#scenarios#with#woody#biomass#as#the#baseline#would#not#be#eligible#to#switch#to#fossil#fuel#stoves#under#this#framework#(UNFCCC,#2011d).#Comparatively#the#GS#VER#methodology#allows#projects#switching#to#any#kind#of#stove#to#be#accredited#as#long#as#there#are#in#fact#emission#reductions#and#the#project#meets#all#other#methodological#criteria.#Therefore,#if#cookstove#programs#shift#to#become#motivated#by#the#carbon#credit#programs#and#policies#are#static,#under#market#forces,#stoves#eligible#for#carbon#credit#certification#with#the# # 20! highest#GHG#reduction#will#dominate#and#may#create#tradeoffs#between#the#maximization#of#climate#vs#health#benefits.# 2.8 Additional(Tradeoffs(in(Actual(Project(Implementation(Economic#rationale#has#been#provided#for#the#implementation#of#cookstove#projects#and#programs#based#upon#the#low#relative#cost#of#cookstoves#compared#to#the#large#number#of#benefits#they#can#create#(Mehta#and#Shahpar,#2004;#Bailis#et#al.,#2005;#Bruce#et#al.,#2006;#Hutton#et#al.,#2006).#Still#effective#cookstove#dissemination#has#faced#many#challenges#including#making#userXappropriate#technology,#providing#affordable#stoves#for#the#targeted#population,#and#developing#effective#business#models#for#diffusion#of#improved#cookstove#technology#(Hanbar#and#Karve,#2002;#Rehman#and#Malhotra,#2004;#Bailis#et#al.,#2009;#Troncoso,#2011;#Shrimali#et#al.,#2011).# Given#that#a#large#portion#of#the#population#that#could#most#benefit#from#improved#cooking#technologies#is#comprised#of#financially#poor#families,#in#many#cases#cookstove#dissemination#needs#to#be#subsidized#(Bailis#et#al.,#2009;#Troncoso,#2011;#Zerriffi#,2011).#Currently#there#are#a#number#of#different#national#and#international#forXprofit#cookstove#businesses#(e.g.#EcoZoom#(EcoZoom,#2012),#Biolite#(Biolite,#2012),#Philips#(HHEN,#2010;#Philips,#2011),#Envirofit#(Envirofit,#2011),#First#Energy#(PCIA,#2011a;#First#Energy,#2012)).#Most#have#had#some#form#of#international#financial#or#inXkind#support#during#their#business#development,#are#relatively#young,#and#have#yet#to#demonstrate#a#longXterm#sustainable#business#model#(Shrimali#et#al.,#2011).#Businesses#are#limited#to#targeting#consumer#demographics#that#can#afford# # 21! to#buy#a#stove,#whereas#donorXfunded#projects#are#limited#in#scale#by#the#amount#and#frequency#of#funding.#The#opportunity#to#earn#carbon#credits#has#the#potential#to#be#a#financial#mechanism#that#can#support#cookstove#projects#on#a#much#larger#scale#and#target#lower#income#demographics#while#still#being#a#financially#sustainable#business#model.# The#success#of#such#projects#will#be#dependent#on#how#the#projects#are#designed#(e.g.#the#type#of#stove,#the#cost#of#the#stove#vs#revenue#from#carbon#credits,#strength#of#local#partnerships,#etc)#and#the#extent#to#which#projects#integrate#lessons#learned#from#past#cookstove#intervention#failures.#These#include,#but#are#not#limited#to:#accounting#for#userXpreferences#in#stove#design#(Barnes#et#al.,#1993;#Rai#and#McDonald,#2009),#having#a#reliable#supply#chain#established#if#switching#to#a#different#fuel#(Rai#and#McDonald,#2009;#Wickramasinghe,#2011),#availability#of#replacement#parts/stoves#and#maintenance#resources#(Rai#and#McDonald,#2009),#and#user#buyXin#(Barnes#et#al.,#1993;#Rai#and#McDonald,#2009;#Shrimali#et#al.,#2011).#Outcomes#of#cookstove#carbon#credit#projects#will#also#largely#be#influenced#by#how#success#is#defined#(e.g.#highest#number#of#carbon#credits#generated#or#stoves#distributed,#women#empowerment,#or#improving#health),#and#by#whom.#If#equity#is#of#concern#in#such#projects,#then#market#approaches#alone#will#not#suffice#to#deliver#improved#cooking#technology#to#the#poorest#of#the#poor#(Simon#et#al.,#2012).# Different#implementing#actors#have#different#motivations#for#engaging#in#stove#projects,#which#are#inherently#integrated#in#their#implementation#design#(e.g.#profit#seeking#marketXbased#approaches)#or#indicated#in#their#mandate#(e.g.#an# # 22! environmental#NGO#vs#povertyXalleviation#NGO).#Similarly#they#have#different#sources#of#funding,#whether#this#is#mostly#donor,#national,#or#investment#funding#which#places#limits#on#the#scale#of#projects#they#can#complete.#These#two#factors#combined#with#the#target#demographic#of#cookstove#users#in#cookstove#projects,#greatly#determine#the#financial#capacity,#scale,#and#design#of#such#projects#and#the#metrics#used#to#measure#success.# 2.9 Knowledge(Gap(There#have#been#some#studies#comparing#the#sustainable#development#outcomes#between#GS#and#CDM#(Nussbaumer,#2009;#Drupp,#2011)#and#motivations#for#using#higher#standard#certification#methodologies#such#as#GS#(Boyd#and#Salzman,#2011)#for#all#project#types,#but#there#is#limited#literature#comparing#the#CDM#and#GS#methodology#specifically#for#cookstove#carbon#credit#projects.#One#study#looks#at#the#scientific#robustness#of#GS#and#CDM#methodological#equations#to#calculate#carbon#credits#for#cookstove#programs#(Johnson#et#al.,#2010),#but#there#have#been#no#studies#in#the#peerXreviewed#literature#that#have#compared#the#amount#of#carbon#credits#that#are#calculated#using#each#methodology#in#different#scenarios.(Simon#et#al.#(2012)#examines#tradeoffs#between#‘winXwin’#benefits#of#carbon#credit#cookstove#projects,#but#do#not#examine#the#tradeoffs#directly#between#health#and#climate,#mentioning#only#that#health#benefits#are#incrementally#created#along#with#climate#benefits#without#accounting#for#the#tradeoffs#in#levels#of#each#benefit#achieved.#Specific#tradeoffs#between#climate#and#health#benefits#of#cookstove#projects#have#been#examined#by#Grieshop#et#al.#(2011),#in#which#comparisons#were#made#between#eleven#stoves.#However,#Grieshop#et#al.#(2011)#do#not#use#carbon#credits#as#a# # 23! measure#of#climate#benefits#and#instead#base#their#comparisons#on#actual#stove#emissions.##The#global#warming#commitments#calculated#per#stove#in#their#study#do#not#compare#emission#reductions#between#stove#switches#and#they#do#not#base#calculations#on#the#carbon#credit#methodologies;#therefore#Grieshop#et#al.#(2011)#cannot#account#for#how#tradeoffs#might#be#made#in#the#actual#market#for#carbon#credits.# The#analyses#in#this#study#focus#on#three#areas.#First,#the#two#different#methodological#approaches#for#calculating#carbon#credits#currently#available#through#the#CDM#and#the#GS#and#the#number#of#carbon#credits#calculated#under#each#are#compared.#Second,#some#methodological#specifics#are#examined.#Current#climateXforcing#interactions#included#in#the#two#methods,#CDM#and#GS,#are#compared#to#other#calculations#with#a#more#complete#inventory#of#climateXforcing#species#and#impacts#of#the#fNRB#variable#on#the#amount#of#carbon#credits#calculated#are#explored#through#a#sensitivity#analysis.#Lastly,#tradeoffs#between#the#amounts#of#climate#and#health#benefits#created#in#different#scenarios#are#examined#using#the#number#of#carbon#credits#calculated,#and#the#estimated#individual#exposure#to#PM2.5#and#relative#risk#of#potential#disease#mortality#as#measures#of#climate#and#health#benefits.# # # # 24! 3 METHODS( 3.1 Overview(Drawing#on#work#by#Grieshop#et#al.#(2011)#discussed#above,#this#study#compares#tradeoffs#between#climate#and#health,#employing#the#same#stoves#used#in#their#analysis,#and#their#methods#for#measuring#health#impacts.#For#climate#benefits,#instead#of#emulating#their#methods#to#calculate#direct#stove#emission#reductions#the#CDM#and#the#GS#methods#were#used#to#calculate#carbon#credits#as#a#measure#of#climate#impacts.#Additional#climateXforcing#species#that#are#included#in#Grieshop#et#al.’s#(2011)#“GWCXAll”#scenario#were#also#employed#in#other#carbon#credit#calculations#in#order#to#theoretically#demonstrate#the#impact#of#a#more#complete#accounting#of#climateXforcings.#These#calculations#were#made#under#the#framework#of#the#two#carbon#credit#methodologies,#though#neither#equation#accounts#for#these#additional#species#at#this#time.# In#this#section#the#various#methods#and#values#used#for#this#study’s#analyses#are#described,#which#include:#the#different#stoves#and#EF#values#included#in#the#analyses,#the#methods#for#calculating#health#benefits#and#carbon#credits#under#both#methodologies,#CDM#and#GS,#the#methods#for#including#additional#climateXforcing#interactions#in#the#carbon#credit#calculations,#and#finally#how#climate#and#health#benefits#in#each#different#scenario#are#compared.# 3.2 Stove(Types(Eleven#stoves#are#included#in#this#study.#These#can#be#roughly#grouped#into#six#categories#based#on#similarities#in#thermal#efficiency,#amount#of#fuel#use#and#fuel# # 25! type:#traditional#biomass#stove#(WXTradXU),#basic#improved#biomass#stoves#(WXImXU,#WXImXV,#WXPatXV),#gasifying#biomass#stoves#(WXGasXU,#WXFanXU),#coalXfueled#stoves#(CoalXU,#CoalXV),#charcoalXfueled#stove#(CharXU)#and#the#cleaner#burning#liquid#fossil#fuel#stoves#(KeroXU,#LPGXU).#There#still#may#be#a#lot#of#variation#in#specific#stoves#not#included#in#this#study#that#fall#into#one#of#these#categories,#but#generally#speaking#the#stoves#included#here#provide#a#rough#representation#of#the#categories#of#stoves#listed#above.#In#this#study#the#stoves#are#referred#to#both#individually#and#in#these#loosely#defined#groups.#For#all#the#analyses#the#baseline#stove#was#assumed#to#be#a#traditional#stove#(WXTradXU).#Therefore#all#the#calculations#of#emission#reductions#are#when#switching#from#the#WXTradXU#to#one#of#the#other#ten#stoves#outlined#in#Table"2. ! 26! Table&2!A!list!of!the!eleven!stoves!in!this!study,!including!details!about!the!location!the!stove!is!used,!a!brief!description!of!the!stove!itself,!and!thermal!efficiency!and!amount!of!fuel!used!for!each!stove.!Assumed!energy!densities!per!fuel!type!employed!in!the!carbon!credit!calculations!are!also!included.! Stove& Code& Location& Description& Thermal& Efficiency& Estimated& Fuel&Use& (t/yr)f,12& Energy&Densities& (TJ/t)f&W<Tr<U! Indiaa/Mexicob! Traditional!‘three<stone’!stove!or!hand!built!mud!stove.! 18%a! 2.69! 0.015!(wood)a!W<Im<U! Indiaa! Unvented,!free<standing!metal!wood!stove.! 23%a! 2.07! 0.015!(wood)a!W<Im<V! Chinac! Brick!wood!stove!with!a!chimney.! 24%c! 2.02! 0.015!(wood)a!W<Pat<V! Mexicob! Masoned!wood!stove!with!chimney.! 24%g! 2.06! 0.015!(wood)a!W<Gas<U! Indiad! Unvented,!free<standing,!top<feed,!gasifying!wood!stove.! 32%d,h! 1.53! 0.015!(wood)a!W<Fan<U! Philip’s!Stoved! Unvented,!free<standing,!Philip’s!‘Fan’!wood!stove!with!battery!powered!fan.! 40%d,h! 1.21! 0.015!(wood)a!Coal<U! Chinac! Unvented,!metal!coal!stove.! 14%a! 1.87! 0.027!(coal)c!Coal<V! Chinac! Metal!coal!stove!with!chimney.! 17%c! 1.54! 0.027!(coal)c!Char<U! Indiae! Unvented,!free<standing!basic!charcoal!stove.! 18%c! 1.58! 0.026!(charcoal)a!Ker<U! Indiaa/Chinac! Unvented,!free<standing!kerosene!wick!stove.! 50%a! 0.34! 0.043!(kerosene)a!LPG<U! Indiaa/Chinac! Unvented,!free<standing!liquid!petroleum!gas!stove.! 54%a! 0.30! 0.046!(LPG)a! aSmith!et!al.,!2000a;!bJohnson!et!al.,!2008;!cZhang!et!al.,!2000;!dMacCarty!et!al.,!2008;!eBailis!et!al.,!2003;!fValues!taken!from!Grieshop!et!al.,!2011.!Original!sources!of!data!cited!where!relevant.;!gBerrueta!et!al.,!2008;!hJetter!and!Kariher,!2009!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!12!Grieshop!et!al.!(2011)!estimated!annual!fuel!use!by!dividing!‘at<the<cookpot’!annual!energy!consumption!(assumed!to!be!7300!MJ/yr)!by!the!product!of!thermal!efficiency!(MJ!delivered!to!pot/MJ!of!chemical!potential!in!the!fuel)!and!fuel!energy!content!(MJ!chemical!potential/kg).!They!used!values!from!laboratory!tests!as!these!provided!consistent,!comparable!measures,!even!though!efficiencies!during!in<home!cooking!usually!vary!from!lab!results.! ! 27! 3.3 Emission)Factors)All!EF!values!were!measured!from!water!boiling!tests!(WBTs),!a!common!measure!to!determine!stove!performance!based!upon!heat!transfer!and!combustion!efficiency!(For!a!description!of!WBTs!see!Jetter!and!Kariher,!2009).!Though!this!does!not!provide!representative!measures!of!actual!EFs!during!cooking!in!homes,!it!provides!a!consistent,!measure!to!compare!all!the!stoves!against.!InIhome!stoves!likely!have!higher!EFs!than!those!reported!through!WBTs,!especially!for!PM2.5!(Johnson!et!al.,!2008).!For!the!WITradIU!stove,!inIhome!EFs!not!derived!by!WBTs!in!Johnson!et!al.!(2008)!and!Roden!et!al.!(2006)!were!higher!than!the!WBT!measurements!included!in!this!study.!This!was!particularly!true!for!the!emission!of!particulate!matter,!suggesting!negative!health!impacts!of!traditional!stoves!may!be!higher!than!estimated!in!this!study.! The!GS!methodology!includes!production!and!transportation!EFs!of!fuel!in!addition!to!direct!fuel!use!where!relevant.!Production!EFs!were!included!in!calculations!for!coal,!charcoal,!kerosene,!and!LPG!fuels!in!the!GS!calculations,!but!EFs!for!transportation!of!fuel!were!omitted!as!these!will!be!varied!based!on!the!specific!location!and!context!of!each!project. ! 28! Table&3!Emission!factors!used!in!this!study’s!calculations!for!each!different!stove!type!in!gC/kg!unless!otherwise!noted.! Stove& CO2& CO& CH4& NMHC& OC& BC& SO2&(g/kg)& PM2.5&&(g/kg)& Production13&W?Tr?Ua! 382.28!±!13.77! 20.67!±!1.67! 2.92!±!0.68! 3.65!±!0.44! 2.15!±!0.59! 1.10!±!0.25! 0.27!±!0.30! 2.78!±!0.60! N/A!W?Im?Ub! 391.75!±!38.82! 27.50!±!5.25! 3.00!±!1.02! 8.61!±!2.39! 1.41!±!0.53! 0.53!±!0.19! 0.27!±!0.30! 3.00!±!0.72! N/A!W?Im?Vc! 425.45!±!12.76! 10.11!±!1.82! 0.45!±!0.13! 0.09!±!0.08! 0.72!±!0.23! 0.27!±!0.08! 0.27!±!0.30! 1.54!±!0.20! N/A!W?Pat?Vd! 370!±!21.35! 22.33!±!4.86! 2.70!±!0.93! 4.10!±!1.67! 2.03!±!0.66! 0.93!±!0.45! 0.27!±!0.30! 3.23!±!1.16! N/A!W?Gas?Ue! 463.64*! 18.38*! 1.74*! 2.87*! 0.59*! 0.28*! 0.27!±!0.30! 1.10*! N/A!W?Fan?Ue! 463.64*! 1.67*! 0.21*! 0.97*! 0.10*! 0.06*! 0.27!±!0.30! 0.20*! N/A!Coal?Uf! 684.55*! 30.30*! 7.73*! 1.61*! 2.35!±!1.95! 3.08!±!2.32! 0.15*! 5.43!±!3.03! 0.52*!Coal?Vf! 736.36!±!66.27! 40.93!±!15.55! 2.64!±!3.01! 0.87!±!0.90! 2.35!±!1.95! 3.08!±!2.32! 0.88!±!1.33! 5.43!±!3.03! 0.52*!Char?Ug! 621.82!±!9.27! 111.43!±!4.29! 13.50!±!4.50! 2.13!±!0.60! 0.25!±!0.32! !0.18!±!0.23! 0.40*! 0.40!±!0.50! 524.90!±!6.41!Ker?Uh! 838.20!±!28.39! 5.65!±!1.21! 0.12!±!0.07! 5.05!±!0.64! 0.04!±!0.02! 0.03!±!0.02! 0.03!±!0.03! 0.26!±!0.15! 179.84*!LPG?Uh! 842.06!±!22.28! 3.69!±!0.85! 0.22!±!0.35! 7.35!±!2.04! 0.07!±!0.06! 0.07!±!0.06! N/A! 0.52!±!0.45! 96.78*! *No!standard!deviation!values!available!in!original!studies.! a!CO2,!CO,!CH4,!NMHC!(Johnson!et!al.,!2008;!Smith!et!al.,!2000a);!OC,!EC,!PM2.5!(Johnson!et!al.,!2008);!SO2!(Andreae!and!Merlet,!2001)!bCO2,!CO,!CH4,!NMHC!(Smith!et!al.,!2000a);!OC,!EC,!PM2.5!(Roden!et!al.,!2006);!SO2!(Andreae!and!Merlet,!2001)!cCO2,!CO,!CH4,!NMHC!(Zhang!et!al.,!2000);!OC,!EC,!PM2.5!(Roden!et!al.,!2006);!SO2!(Andreae!and!Merlet,!2001)!dCO2,!CO,!CH4,!NMHC,!OC,!EC,!PM2.5!(Johnson!et!al.,!2008);!SO2!(Andreae!and!Merlet,!2001)!eCO2,!CO,!CH4,!NMHC,!OC,!EC,!PM2.5!(MacCarty!et!al.,!2008);!SO2!(Andreae!and!Merlet,!2001)!fCO2,!CO,!CH4,!NMHC,!SO2,!PM2.5!(Zhang!et!al.,!2000);!OC!and!EC!fractions!(Bond!et!al.,!2004);!Production!(IPCC,!1996)!gCO2,!CO,!CH4,!NMHC,! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!13!Emissions!of!CO2,!CH4!and!N2O!were!included!in!the!estimation!of!the!production!EF.!As!the!EFs!for!production!were!not!available!for!all!of!the!climate!forcers!included!in!the!All#Species!scenarios!(See!Section!3.7),!production!EFs!were!not!included!in!these!calculations,!only!in!the!Allowable!Credits!scenarios!(See!Section!3.6).! ! 29! PM2.5!(Bailis!et!al.,!2003);!OC!and!EC!fractions!(Bond!et!al.,!2004);!SO2!(Andreae!and!Merlet,!2001);!Production(Pennise!et!al.,!2001)!hCO2,!CO,!CH4,!NMHC,!PM2.5!(Zhang!et!al.,!2000;!Smith!et!al.,!2000a);!OC!and!EC!fractions!(Bond!et!al.,!2004);!SO2!(Value!for!Kero?U!only,!Zhang!et!al.,!2000)!;Production!(Defra,!2012) ! 30! 3.4 Measuring-Climate-Impacts:-Carbon-Credits-For!climate!benefits,!carbon!credits!of!cookstove!projects!were!calculated!using!both!the!CDM!and!GS!methodologies.!All!emissions!calculated!are!in!tCO2e,!where!one!tCO2e!equals!one!carbon!credit.!Carbon!credits!reported!here!represent!amount!of!tCO2e!reduced!per!year!per!stove.!For!both!equations!CO2!emitted!from!burning!of!renewable!biomass!is!not!included!as!it!is!assumed!to!be!carbon!neutral,!with!the!amount!of!carbon!emitted!being!reGsequestered!through!forest!regeneration.!This!assumption!is!reflected!through!the!inclusion!of!the!fNRB!variable!in!both!equations.!The!equations!for!both!methodologies!are!outlined!below.! 3.4.1 CDM)The!CDM!methodology!used!for!calculating!CER!credits!for!cookstoves!is!called,!“AMSGII.G!Energy!efficiency!measures!in!thermal!applications!of!nonGrenewable!biomass”!(UNFCCC,!2011d).!There!are!four!variables!used!to!calculate!emission!reductions!(ERy)!which!is!expressed!in!tCO2e!during!the!year!y:! ERy!=!By,savings*fNRB,y*NCV*EFprojected!fossilfuel!(Equation-C.1)! Where!By,savings!is!the!amount!of!fuel!saved!in!tonnes!through!the!project!activities!in!year!y,!which!here!only!the!amount!per!stove!is!included,!fNRB,y!is!the!fraction!of!nonGrenewable!biomass!saved!in!year!y,-NCV!is!the!net!calorific!value!of!the!woody!biomass!or!other!type!of!fuel,!and!EFprojected-fossilfuel!is!the!default!emission!factor,!81.6!tCO2/TJ,!representing!the!“substitution!of!nonGrenewable!woody!biomass!by!similar!consumers”!based!on!a!mix!of!weighted!fossil!fuels.!There!are!two!important!notes!to!be!made!regarding!this!use!of!a!fossilGfuel!EF.!!First,!this!factor!is!on!an! ! 31! energy!basis!(tCO2/TJ)!while!the!EFs!presented!in!Table)3!are!on!a!mass!basis!(gC/kg!fuel).!Second,!it!represents!the!EF!of!the!baseline!stove!in!the!project,!usually!a!traditional!stove.!The!equation!still!bases!the!amount!of!fuel!saved!on!the!actual!baseline!and!project!stoves’!relative!efficiencies!and!the!amount!fuel!needed!for!meeting!energy!requirements,!but!utilizes!a!misrepresentative!default!fossilGfuel!EF.!This!is!meant!to!provide!conservative!estimates!without!requiring!the!actual!measurement!of!the!traditional!stove!EFs,!but!at!the!same!time!it!does!not!reflect!the!actual!specific!emission!reductions.! It!is!also!important!to!note!that!the!CDM!does!not!allow!fossil!fuel!based!stoves!(e.g.!LPG)!to!obtain!credits!unless!switching!from!a!high!to!low!carbon!intensive!fossil!fuel!(e.g.!coal!to!LPG).!Therefore,!in!the!results!reported!below!there!are!two!numbers!included!for!the!LPG!and!kerosene!stoves:!zero!for!the!actual!credits!possible!under!the!CDM!and!a!second!value!for!the!credits!that!would!be!generated!using!Equation)C.1!above,!if!switching!from!a!traditional!to!fossil!fuel!stove!was!allowed.! 3.4.2 GS)To!calculate!GS!VER!credits!the!GS!methodology,!“Technologies!and!Practices!to!Displace!Decentralized!Thermal!Energy!Consumption”!was!used!(The!Gold!Standard,!2011b).!For!EFs!GS!allows!the!use!of!IPCC!defaults!for!baseline!and/or!project!emissions,!if!they!cannot!be!measured!directly!in!the!project!context.!Overall!GS’s!estimates!are!more!representative!of!actual!emission!reductions!even!when! ! 32! using!default!EF!values,!than!the!CDM!method!as!they!calculate!both!baseline!and!project!emissions.!The!equation!used!is!as!follows:! ERy!=!∑b,p!Np,y!*!Up,y*!(fNRB,b,y*ERb,p,y,!CO2+ERb,p,y,!nonGCO2)!G!∑!LEp,y!(Equation-G.1)! Where!∑b,p!is!the!sum!of!all!the!different!baseline!and!project!scenarios,!Np,y!is!the!number!of!‘technologyGdays’!included!in!the!project!period!in!year!y,!here!assumed!to!be!365!days,!Up,y!is!the!rate!of!usage!of!project!technologies!during!year!y!as!a!fraction,!here!assumed!to!be!100%,!fNRB,b,y!is!the!fraction!of!nonGrenewable!biomass!for!the!baseline!scenario!in!year!y,!ERb,p,y,-CO2!is!the!emission!reductions!of!CO2!when!switching!from!the!baseline!to!project!technology!in!year!y,!measured!in!tCO2!per!day,!ERb,p,y,-nonKCO2!is!the!amount!of!emission!reductions!of!nonGCO2!emissions,!CH4!and!N2O,!when!switching!from!the!baseline!to!project!technology!in!year!y,!in!units!of!tCO2e!per!year,!for!which!only!CH4!is!included!in!this!study’s!equations,!and!LEp,y!is!leakage!for!the!project!scenario!in!year!y,!in!tCO2e!per!year,!here!assumed!to!be!zero!for!all!calculations.! 3.5 CDM-vs-GS-The!amount!of!carbon!credits!were!calculated!and!compared!when!switching!from!the!WGTradGU!stove!to!all!other!stoves!included!in!the!study!under!the!two!different!methodologies,!CDM!and!GS!using!Equation)C.1!and!Equation)G.1.!These!scenarios!are!referred!to!as!‘Allowable)Credits’.!For!both!these!calculations!the!fNRB!was!assumed!to!be!a!value!of!75%.!After!a!review!of!the!current!registered!cookstove!projects!both!under!CDM!and!GS,!75%!was!found!to!be!at!the!lower!end!of!the!estimated!reported!values.!Many!projects!include!fNRB!values!up!into!the!90th! ! 33! percentile!range.!Therefore!by!applying!this!value!in!these!calculations,!the!resulting!carbon!credits!calculated!are!relatively!conservative!estimates.!Additionally,!approximately!how!much!can!be!earned!per!scenario!(which!again!measures!number!of!carbon!credits!per!stove!per!year)!was!calculated!employing!the!prices!found!in!Table)1.!The!average!price!per!carbon!credit!was!used!for!all!project!types!under!the!CDM!for!the!CER!credits!and!the!average!price!specifically!for!cookstove!projects!for!the!VER!credits.!This!is!only!an!approximation!and!actual!prices!and!income!may!greatly!vary!from!the!ones!provided!here.! 3.6 Accounting-for-Additional-Climate-Forcings-As!neither!methodology!accounts!for!all!climate!forcers,!climate!impacts!were!calculated!using!the!framework!of!both!methodologies!by!including!the!following!species:!CO2,!CH4,!CO,!NMHC,!OC,!BC!and!SO2.!These!calculation!scenarios!are!referred!to!as!‘All)Species’.!EF!values!found!in!Table)3!were!used,!derived!from!previous!studies!for!these!calculations.!Each!specific!species’!EFs!were!employed!in!the!CDM!methodology!instead!of!using!the!default!EF!value!and!the!amount!of!carbon!credits!for!each!different!species!was!calculated!individually.!For!nonGCO2!gases!the!fNRB!variable!was!omitted!from!the!equation.!The!sum!of!all!the!individual!species!calculations!equal!the!total!carbon!credits!calculated!for!the!All)Species!scenarios.!GWP!values!for!a!100Gyear!period!applied!for!each!different!species!can! ! 34! be!found!in!Table)414!.!These!All)Species!carbon!credit!values!are!then!compared!with!the!amount!calculated!in!the!Allowable)Credits!scenarios.! Table-4!GWP100!values!for!all!species!included!in!the!study.! Species- GWP100- Kyoto)Gases)CO2! 1a!CH4! 25a! Other)Species!CO! 1.9a!NMHC! 3.4a!BC! 455b!OC! G35b!SO2! G76c! aIPCC,!2007;!bReynolds!and!Kandlikar,!2008;!cShindell!et!al.,!2009! 3.7 fNRB-Sensitivity-Analysis-The!methods!to!calculate!the!fNRB!lack!specificity!in!both!methodologies!though!GS!provides!marginally!more!detailed!guidelines!than!CDM.!Under!both!approaches!high!levels!of!uncertainty!through!coarse!estimates!and!inconsistent!methodological!approaches!are!incorporated!into!estimates!of!the!fNRB.!It!is!beyond!the!scope!of!this!study!to!analyze!the!process!in!determining!this!value.!Instead!the!variability!that!different!values!of!fNRB!can!create!is!demonstrated.!Using!a!sensitivity!analysis!carbon!credits!were!calculated!under!both!methodologies!using!Equation)C.1!and) Equation)G.1,!for!all!stoves!using!values:!25%,!50%,!75%,!85%!and!95%.!The!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!14!The!time!frame!for!which!the!GWPs!are!defined!by!can!greatly!change!the!values!calculated.!This!is!particularly!true!for!BC!which!is!a!very!shortGlived!climate!forcer.!For!example,!one!estimate!of!a!GWP!value!for!a!20Gyear!period!for!BC!is!2200!(Bond!and!Sun,!2005).! ! 35! majority!of!reported!values!in!actual!projects!are!in!the!range!of!75G100%.!Including!the!values!25%!and!50%!demonstrate!the!potential!variability!in!carbon!credits!calculated!if!the!reported!range!was!extended.! 3.8 Estimating-Health-Impacts:-Individual-Exposure-and-Relative-Risk-Two!health!effect!estimates!are!employed!in!this!study:!reduction!of!individual!exposure!to!PM2.5!and!relative!risk!of!disease!mortality.!For!both!effect!estimates,!individual!exposure!to!PM2.5!in!mg!per!day!for!each!different!kind!of!stove!was!first!calculated!based!upon!the!PM2.5!emissions!per!stove,!the!amount!of!fuel!burned,!and!the!exposure!fraction!an!individual!experiences!(See!Equation)H.1).!Reduced!exposure!to!emissions!due!to!a!venting!system!such!as!a!chimney!or!flue!was!also!incorporated!into!the!calculation.! To!determine!the!first!effect!estimate!of!health,!values!of!individual!exposure!to!PM2.5!were!translated!into!relative!risk!of!disease!mortality!using!Pope!et!al.!(2009)’s!logGlinear!intakeGresponse!relationship!(relative!risk!=!1+0.2968(dose)0.2107)!developed!for!cardiovascular!disease!(CVD)!(See!Figure)5).!Pope!et!al.!(2009)’s!intake!response!curve!for!CVD!is!primarily!based!on!empirical!data!from!urban!air!pollution!and!second!hand!smoke!at!the!lower!end!of!the!scale!and!primary!cigarette!smoking!at!the!higher!end!of!the!scale.!Typical!doses!from!cookstoves!are!in!between!these!two!exposure!ranges!and!it!has!also!been!proposed!that!two!of!the!three!main!health!impacts!more!strongly!associated!with!IAP,!COPD!and!ALRI,!exhibit!a!similar!nonGlinear!relationship!(Smith!and!Peel,!2010).!There!has!not!yet!been!any!direct!empirical!evidence!to!support!this!theory,!therefore!the! ! 36! relative!risk!relationship!presented!here!is!only!theoretical!and!includes!high!levels!of!uncertainty.!Including!relative!risk!demonstrates!the!additional!complexity!of!health!benefit!estimations,!as!these!are!probably!not!incremental!(with!the!exception!of!lung!cancer,!which!most!likely!does!follow!a!linear!relationship!(Smith!and!Peel,!2010))!and!reflects!a!nonGlinear!relationship,!which!the!health!impacts!of!IAP!could!likely!follow.! The!second!health!effect!included!in!the!analyses!estimates!the!relative!health!benefit!when!switching!from!the!baseline!stove!to!the!other!ten!stoves!included!in!this!study.!These!values!were!determined!by!calculating!the!difference!between!individual!exposure!values!to!determine!the!overall!reduction!in!individual!exposure!to!PM2.5!(See!Table)5).!In!comparison!to!the!measure!of!relative!risk,!the!measure!in!the!difference!of!individual!exposure!reflects!a!linear!relationship.!As!its!values!are!based!more!directly!on!stove!performance!and!emissions,!these!values!incorporate!less!uncertainty,!but!are!limited!in!the!representation!of!actual!impact!on!health!conditions.!It!better!reflects!the!relative!performance!of!each!stove’s!potential!health!benefits,!but!not!actual!potential!health!impacts.! Both!health!effects!provide!an!estimate!of!health!per!individual,!a!unit!easily!comparable!to!carbon!credits,!which!are!incrementally!calculated!per!stove.!Yet,!these!values!only!provide!an!approximate!measure!of!health!impacts!per!stove!as!they!have!different!levels!of!uncertainty!associated!with!their!values!and!actual!impacts!in!such!projects!may!vary!greatly!due!to!a!number!of!variables!impacting! ! 37! outcomes.!Still!they!are!effective!relative!measures!by!which!to!compare!performance!between!the!individual!stoves!and!corresponding!carbon!credits.! Individual!Exposure!=!AFU*EFPM2.5*iFi*funv*1/365!(Equation-H.1)! This!equation!is!derived!from!an!individual!intake!fraction!equation!from!Bennett!et!al.!(2002)!linking!mass!emitted!and!mass!inhaled.!Here!individual!intake!is!instead!referred!to!as!individual!exposure!as!it!better!describes!what!the!calculated!values!represent.!Individual!exposure!is!measured!in!mg!per!day!where!AFU!is!the!annual!fuel!use!measured!in!kg!fuel!per!year,!EFPM2.5!is!the!emission!factor!of!PM2.5,!iFi!is!the!individual!exposure!fraction!measured!in!mg!exposed!per!mg!emitted!here!assumed!to!be!1300*10^G6!mg!per!mg!based!upon!a!median!of!the!most!exposed!and!highest!risk!group,!females!from!16G50!years!of!age!(Grieshop!et!al.,!2011),!and! funv!is!the!fraction!of!emissions!not!vented!via!a!chimney.!When!there!is!no!chimney!present!funv!is!assumed!to!be!1.!For!the!vented!stoves!included!in!this!study,!a!value!of!0.18!is!used,!which!was!derived!by!Grieshop!et!al.!(2011)!from!a!conglomerate!of!studies.!The!equation!is!lastly!multiplied!by!1/365!to!get!a!measurement!per!day!not!per!year,!a!standard!unit!of!measure!of!health!impacts!in!this!area!of!study.! 3.9 Comparing-Health-and-Climate-Benefits-With!the!amount!of!carbon!credits!resulting!from!both!the!Allowable)Credits!and!All) Species!calculations,!the!scenarios!were!ranked!from!those!creating!the!most!carbon!credits!to!the!least.!Similarly!the!different!stoves!were!also!ranked!to!represent!health!benefits!based!upon!the!reduction!of!individual!exposure!to!PM2.5!from!the!highest!reduction!to!the!least!and!for!relative!risk!from!the!least!to!the!most!risk.! ! 38! Finally!the!rankings!of!climate!and!health!benefits!for!each!stove!were!compared!under!both!CDM!and!GS!methodologies!for!Allowable)Credits!and!All)Species)scenarios.! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! 39! 4 RESULTS- 4.1 CDM-vs-GS:-Carbon-Credits-Calculated- Figure)1!compares!GS!and!CDM!methodologies!for!all!Allowable)Credits!scenarios.!In!all!cases!except!for!CoalGU!and!CharGU,!where!both!have!‘negative’!carbon!credits!(i.e.!GHG!emissions!increase!rather!than!decrease),!GS!outGperforms!CDM!in!the!number!of!credits!calculated.!When!including!EFs!for!production!of!processed!or!extracted!fuels,!the!LPGGU!stove!creates!the!most!carbon!credits!under!the!GS!methodology,!closely!followed!by!the!KeroGU.!Under!GS!the!next!best!performing!stove!for!climate!is!the!WGFanGU!stove,!but!it!calculates!more!than!0.5!of!a!credit!less!than!kerosene.!Under!the!CDM!methodology,!the!WGFanGU!stove!performs!the!best!as!the!CDM!does!not!credit!projects!switching!from!biomass!to!fossil!fuel!stoves.!If!they!did!include!such!stoves!in!their!methodology,!KeroGU!and!LPGGU!would!generate!the!highest!amount!of!carbon!credits!out!of!the!CDM!scenarios!included!in!the!analysis,!but!with!WGFanGU!closer!in!comparison!to!these!two!fossil!fuel!stoves!than!under!GS.!The!income!generated!per!scenario!varied;!neither!methodology!calculated!a!higher!income!per!stove!in!all!scenarios.! For!the!biomass!stoves,!the!FanGU!and!GasGU,!the!more!technologically!advanced!models,!outGperformed!the!other!stoves.!When!comparing!the!basic!models!of!biomass!stoves!(WGImGU,!WGImGV,!WGPatGV)!along!with!the!coal!stoves,!the!vented!stoves!performed!better!under!GS,!with!the!WGPatGV!generating!the!most!amount!of!carbon!credits.!There!wasn’t!much!of!a!difference!between!the!basic!biomass!stoves!under!the!CDM!methodology.!For!the!CoalGU,!CoalGV!and!CharGU!stoves,!these!had! ! 40! values!of!close!to!zero,!zero,!or!negative!emissions!reductions!under!both!methodologies.! If!just!comparing!the!emission!reductions!of!CO2!calculated!under!each!methodology!there!is!much!more!variation!as!to!which!methodology!exceeds!the!other!in!each!different!scenario.! ! Figure-1!Comparing!CDM!and!GS!methodologies!for!the!number!of!carbon!credit!calculated.!!All!scenarios!are!switching!from!the!WGTradGU!stove!to!one!of!the!ten!improved!stoves!using!a!75%!value!for!the!fNRB.!As!GS!can!include!EFs!associated!with!the!production!of!processed!or!extracted!fuels,!the!production!EFs!for!CoalGU,!CoalGV,!CharGU,!KeroGU!and!LPGGU!are!included!in!these!GS!calculations,!indicated!by!the!red!dots.!The!CharGU!stove!has!particularly!high!emissions!associated!with!its!production!resulting!in!the!extra!negative!amount!of!carbon!credits!calculated.!As!CDM!uses!a!default!EF,!there!are!no!confidence!bounds!for!any!of!the!CDM!calculations.!For!GS,!standard!deviation!was!not!available!in!the!original!studies!for!WGGasGU,!WGFanGU!or!CoalGU!and!therefore!these!stove!scenarios!do!not!include!the!confidence!bounds.!As!CDM!does!not!accept!cookstove!projects!that!switch!to!a!fossil!fuel!stove!from!a!traditional!stove,!the!real!values!for!KeroGU!and!LPGGU!would!be!zero!(blue!diamonds),!but!a!theoretical!calculation!applying!the!CDM!equation!to!these!stoves!was!included!as!a!comparison!to!GS.! ! 41! 4.1.1 Accounting)for)Additional)Climate)Forcings) Figure)2!displays!the!impact!of!including!different!climateGforcing!species!using!both!carbon!credit!methodologies.!The!inclusion!of!BC!has!the!most!significant!impact!on!the!amount!of!carbon!credits!calculated!as!it!increases!the!values!in!all!the!scenarios!with!the!exception!of!CoalGU!and!CoalGV,!even!when!including!OC!and!SO2,!climate!cooling!species.!An!EF!for!fuel!production!was!not!included!in!any!of!these!calculations!as!values!could!not!be!obtained!for!all!species.!Therefore!carbon!credit!estimates!for!the!coal,!charcoal!and!fossil!fuel!stoves!under!the!GS!methodology!are!overestimated.!The!top!three!performing!stoves!under!both!methodologies!are!again!the!WGFanGU!biomass!stove!and!the!two!fossil!fuel!stoves,!KeroGU!and!LPGGU.!The!other!biomass!stoves!perform!differently!under!the!two!different!methodologies.!The!WGGasGU!stove!does!relatively!well!under!both!CDM!and!GS!whereas!WGImGU,!WGImGV,!and!WGPatGV!have!approximately!the!same!number!of!carbon!credits!under!the!CDM!and!are!much!more!varied!under!the!GS.!In!these!scenarios,!GS!still!calculates!more!carbon!credits!than!the!CDM,!even!when!the!CDM!methodology!employs!actual!EFs!and!does!not!use!the!default!EF!value.! ! 42! ! Figure-2!Breakdown!of!the!different!climateGforcing!species!included!in!the!All)Species)analysis!for!each!different!stove!under!each!different!methodology!when!switching!from!the!WGTradGU!stove!to!each!respective!project!technology.!For!all!calculations!a!75%!value!for!the!fNRB!was!used.!Values!of! Allowable)Credits!under!normal!CDM!and!GS!methodologies!are!indicated!by!the!black!dots.!Since!CDM!does!not!certify!projects!that!switch!to!fossil!fuels!from!a!traditional,!biomass!stove,!their!hypothetical!normal!values!are!indicated!by!the!yellow!dots.!For!All)Species!calculated!under!the!CDM!methodology!actual!EF!values!were!used!instead!of!the!default!EF.!Emissions!from!production!of!fuels!were!not!included!in!the!individual!species!emissions!calculations.!Therefore!the!carbon!credits!calculated!in!these!All)Species!scenarios!may!be!overestimated!for:!CoalGU,!CoalGV,!CharGU,!KeroGU!and!LPGGU.! 4.1.2 Fraction)of)NonLRenewable)Biomass) Figure)3!compares!the!different!stove!scenarios!under!CDM!and!GS!when!using!different!values!of!the!fNRB!in!the!calculations.!In!general!the!higher!the!value!of!the! fNRB!the!higher!the!amount!of!carbon!credits!per!year!per!stove!calculated!under!both!methodologies!with!the!exception!of!CoalGU,!CoalGV!and!CharGU,!in!which!the!inverse!relationship!is!true!(exception:!CharGU!under!CDM,!where!it!equaled!zero!when!using!all!different!values!of!the!fNRB).!For!the!other!seven!stoves!the! ! 43! difference!of!carbon!credits!calculated!when!using!25%!and!95%!values!of!fNRB!ranged!from!0.44!to!1.99!carbon!credits!with!an!average!difference!of!0.68!carbon!credits!under!the!GS!and!0.62!carbon!credits!under!the!CDM.!!For!the!fNRB!values!of!75%!and!95%!the!difference!in!the!number!of!credits!calculated!for!the!seven!stoves!ranged!from!0.13!to!0.57!with!an!average!difference!of!0.18!for!CDM!and!0.20!for!GS.!For!the!fossil!fuel!stoves!the!differing!values!of!the!fNRB!have!an!especially!large!impact!on!the!number!of!carbon!credits!calculated!with!high!values!of!the!fNRB!greatly!increasing!the!number!of!carbon!credits!calculated.! ! Figure-3-Sensitivity!analyses!for!the!fraction!of!nonGrenewable!biomass!under!both!the!CDM!and!GS!using!values!of!25%,!50%,!75%,!85%!and!95%.!Note!the!difference!in!scale!as!the!GS!values!span!a!much!larger!range!of!values!than!the!CDM.!Since!CDM!calculations!employ!a!default!EF!there!is!no!uncertainty!represented!for!any!of!these!values.!For!the!GS!calculations,!values!of!standard!deviation! ! 44! were!not!available!for!the!EFs!of!the!WGGasGU,!WGFanGU!and!CoalGU!stoves!and!therefore!uncertainty!is!not!represented!for!these!stoves!either.! 4.2 Health-Performance- Table)5!lists!estimated!health!performance!for!the!stoves!included!in!the!study.!The!stoves!are!ranked!from!top!performing!(having!the!least!relative!risk!and!greatest!reduction!in!individual!exposure)!to!the!worst!(with!the!most!relative!risk!and!least!reduction!in!individual!exposure).!All!stoves!besides!the!CoalGU!stove!have!a!lower!relative!risk!than!the!WGTradGU!stove.!Figure!5!visually!demonstrates!the!estimated!relationship!between!relative!risk!and!individual!exposure!for!each!stove.!This!nonGlinear!doseGresponse!relationship!shows!reductions!in!exposure!at!already!low!levels!of!exposure!will!have!the!greatest!impact!in!reducing!the!amount!of!relative!risk.!This!is!only!a!rough!estimation!of!health!impacts!based!on!Smith!and!Peel!(2010)’s!interpolation!of!Pope!et!al.!(2009)’s!CVD!dose!response!curve.!!However,!there!is!no!direct!empirical!evidence!as!of!yet!for!the!relationship!between!PM2.5!from!household!combustion!and!CVD.15!Based!on!this!theoretical!work,!Smith!and!Peel!(2010)!show!that!to!achieve!the!highest!levels!of!positive!health!impacts!and!to!achieve!the!highest!reduction!in!relative!risk,!individual!intake!of!PM2.5!needs!to!be!less!than!1!mg/day.!In!this!analysis!only!the!top!three!performing!stoves!meet!these!levels,!the!KeroGU,!LPGGU!and!WGFanGU!stoves!(corresponding!to!a!relative!risk!of!less!than!1.3),!but!again!currently!this!is!only!a!theoretical!threshold.!Regardless,!the!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!15!The!best!evidence!for!health!effects!of!household!smoke!are!its!impacts!on!respiratory!diseases!such!as!COPD!and!ALRI.!Smith!and!Peel!propose!that!these!also!follow!a!similar!nonGlinear!function.!The!relative!risks!calculated!here!are!not!for!those!diseases,!as!a!doseGresponse!curve!has!not!been!developed!for!them!as!of!yet.! ! 45! two!effect!estimates!of!health!demonstrated!here,!both!the!linear!individual!exposure!and!nonGlinear!relative!risk,!can!be!used!as!relative!estimates!to!compare!the!health!performance!between!stoves.! 4.3 Climate-vs-Health-The!top!three!stoves!for!both!climate!and!health!in!all!scenarios,!with!the!exception!of!CDM’s!Allowable)Credits!(where!fossil!fuel!stoves!are!excluded),!are!KeroGU,!LPGGU!and!WGFanGU!(See!Figure)4!and!Table)5).!Climate!benefits!are!maximized!in!the!All) Species!scenarios,!but!the!actual!pattern!of!ranked!climate!benefits!depends!on!the!type!of!stove,!methodology!and!scenario!(See!Figure)6).!For!health,!with!the!exception!of!the!high!performing!WGFanGU!stove,!the!vented!stoves!performed!better!in!the!analysis!than!nonGvented!stoves!when!comparing!the!biomass!or!coal!stoves.!Charcoal!performs!well!for!individual!exposure!as!it!burns!relatively!cleanly!(See!Table)5!and!Figure)5)!and!has!a!low!relative!risk!value.!Yet!the!climate!emissions!of!charcoal!during!the!production!phase!are!so!high,!this!results!in!zero!or!negative!values!of!carbon!credits.!The!WGGasGU!stove!is!the!4th!topGperforming!stove!for!climate!benefits!in!all!the!scenarios,!yet!it!is!the!3rd!worst!stove!for!health!benefits.!Still!its!health!benefits!far!exceed!those!of!the!two!worst!performing!stoves!as!the!WGGasGU!associated!individual!exposure!value!is!less!than!10!mg/day,!situating!it!in!Smith!and!Peel!(2008)’s!second!best!tier!for!health!measures.!The!coal!stoves!perform!especially!poorly!for!both!climate!and!health!benefits,!but!including!a!chimney!can!significantly!improve!health!performance!measures. ! 46! Table&5!Ranking!different!scenarios!for!climate!and!health!benefits.!The!climate!scenarios!are!ranked!based!on!the!number!of!carbon!credits!calculated.!A!potential!income!for!each!scenario!is!also!included!using!2011!average!carbon!prices!for!cookstove!projects!for!GS!($13)!and!all!projects!for!CDM!($17.38)!(See!Table&1).!The!All&Species!climate!scenario!is!theoretical!and!includes!all!the!climateKforcing!species!included!in!Figure&2:!CO2,!CH4,!CO,!NMHC,!OC,!BC!and!SO2.! Health&Climate:&Allowable&Credits&Carbon!Credits!(tCO2e/year)!and!Potential!Income!($)! Climate:&All&Species&Carbon!Credits!(tCO2e/year)!and!Potential!Income!($)! GS& CDM& GS& CDM& Reduction!of!Individual!Exposure!to!PM2.5!(mg/day)! Relative!Risk! LPG=U& 2.74! $35.62! LPG=U& 1.65*! $28.68! LPG=U& 7.49! $97.37! LPG=U& 5.37! $93.23! Kero=U& 26.34! 1.23! Kero=U& 2.54! $33.02! Kero=U& 1.58!*! $27.46! Kero=U& 7.21! $93.73! Kero=U& 5.15! $89.51! LPG=U& 26.11! 1.26! W=Fan=U& 1.98! $25.74! W=Fan=U& 1.36! $23.64! W=Fan=U& 6.44! $83.72! W=Fan=U& 4.43! $76.99! W=Fan=U& 25.80! 1.29! W=Gas=U& 1.35! $17.55! W=Gas=U& 1.08! $18.77! W=Im=V&& 5.12! $66.56! W=Gas=U& 3.52! $61.18! W=Im=V& 24.67! 1.34! W=Im=V& 1.10! $14.30! W=Im=V& 0.62! $10.78! W=Gas=U& 4.88! $63.44! W=Im=V& 2.01! $34.93! Char=U& 24.41! 1.35! W=Pat=V& 0.94! $12.22! W=Pat=V& 0.62! $10.78! W=Im=U& 3.34! $43.42! W=Pat=V& 2.01! $34.93! W=Pat=V& 22.39! 1.40! W=Im=U& 0.75! $9.75! W=Im=U& 0.54! $9.39! W=Pat=V& 2.40! $31.20! W=Im=U& 1.75! $30.42! Coal=V& 21.30! 1.42! Coal=V& 0.00! $0! Char=U& 0.00! $0! Char=U& 1.89! $24.57! Char=U& 0.00! $0! W=Gas=U& 20.67! 1.43! Coal=U& K1.38! $0! Coal=V& K0.15! $0! Coal=V& K2.95! $0! Coal=V& K0.47! $0! W=Im=U& 4.56! 1.57x! Char=U& K8.78! $0! Coal=U& K0.71! $0! Coal=U& K6.19! $0! Coal=U& K2.30! $0! Coal=U& K9.50! 1.63x! *Scenarios!not!possible!under!current!CDM!methodological!framework.! xThe!relative!risk!of!WKTradKU!is:!1.59,!which!falls!between!WKImKU!and!CoalKU ! 47! ! ! & Figure&4!Comparing!measures!of!climate!benefits!in!the!form!of!carbon!credits!calculated!and!health!benefits!in!the!form!of!reduction!of!individual!exposure!to!PM2.5!under!both!methodologies,!CDM!and!GS.!In!each!comparison!Allowable&Credits!and!All&Species!scenarios!are!included.!For!the!CDM!a!‘Kyoto’!scenario!is!also!included,!which!calculates!emission!reduction!of!both!CO2!and!CH4.!As!GS!methodology!already!includes!both!these!species!in!its! Allowable&Credits!scenario,!this!in!not!included!for!GS.!Since!LPG!and!kerosene!fueled!stoves!are!not!eligible!for!CDM!credits!when!switching!from!a!biomass!stove,!the!yellow!circles!represent!the!theoretical!credits!that!could!be!received!under!normal!calculations!if!these!stoves!were!eligible!for!credits.!Note!the!two!breaks!in!the!xKaxis. ! 48! ! Figure'5'Adjusted!relative!risk!vs!individual!exposure!of!PM2.5!in!mg/day.!Relative!risk!is!assumed!to!be!equal!to:!1+0.2968(dose)0.2107,!derived!from!Pope!et!al.!(2009),!where!the!dose!is!individual!exposure!to!PM2.5.!The!only!stove!to!perform!worse!than!the!WPTradPU!is!CoalPU.!In!all!other!scenarios!a!switch!from!the!WPTradPU!stove!to!another!stove!provides!some!level!of!health!improvement.! ! 49! ! Figure'6'Scenarios!based!on!the!type!of!stove,!methodology!and!scenario!ranked!for!the!amount!of!carbon!credits!calculated!from!most!to!least.!In!general!All#Species!scenarios!perform!better!than! Allowable#Credits!and!GS!better!than!CDM.!The!scenarios!in!the!top!quartile!include!the!LPGPU,!KeroPU,!FanPU,!GasPU,!ImPV!and!ImPU!stoves.!The!scenarios!in!the!bottom!quartile!include!the!CharPU,!CoalPU,!and!CoalPV!stoves.!!!!!! ! 50! 5 DISCUSSION' 5.1 Choosing'a'Methodology'One!salient!finding!of!this!research!is!the!difference!in!carbon!credits!calculated!between!the!two!methodologies.!In!almost!all!scenarios!the!carbon!credits!under!the!GS!methodology!exceeds!those!calculated!by!CDM!(up!to!1.79!times!under!the! Allowable#Credit#scenarios).!The!inclusion!of!CH4!in!GS!calculations!largely!accounts!for!this!discrepancy.!For!CO2!reductions!only,!neither!methodology!is!dominant!across!all!stoves16.!When!comparing!theoretical!prices!per!stove!scenario,!on!the!outset!it!would!seem!CDM!would!earn!more!per!stove!offset!due!to!the!higher!average!price!per!credit.!Yet,!as!GS!calculated!more!credits!per!stove!than!CDM!in!most!scenarios!and!cookstoves!projects!specifically!earned!more!than!the!average!project!in!the!voluntary!market,!there!is!more!variation,!without!one!methodology!consistently!having!a!higher!theoretical!price!per!stove.!As!the!state!of!carbon!markets!continue!to!be!uncertain!these!relationships!could!drastically!change.!In!addition,!there!is!no!data!specifically!for!cookstove!project!CERs,!which!could!mean!that!cookstove!credits!under!the!CDM!could!potentially!have!even!higher!prices.! Overall,!the!GS!methodology!more!accurately!represents!actual!emission!reductions!as!it!bases!these!on!the!difference!between!the!project!and!baseline!stoves!rather!than!a!default!EF!based!equation.!Still,!the!choice!to!use!CDM!or!GS!will!probably!be!most!dependent!upon!whether!or!not!the!project!developer!wants!to!apply!for!CER! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!16!Note,!these!values!are!highly!dependent!on!the!poorly!defined!fNRB!estimation.!Therefore!this!relationship!will!vary!depending!on!the!values!of!fNRB!employed.! ! 51! or!VER!credits.!There!are!many!considerations!made!in!this!decision,!such!as!the!cost!of!becoming!certified,!the!size!of!the!project,!the!types!of!credits!potential!investors!are!interested!in!and!the!price!earned!per!credit.!No!previous!studies!were!found!to!have!compared!the!difference!in!calculable!credits!between!the!two!methodologies.!Therefore!this!research!presents!another!consideration!to!be!included!when!making!such!decisions,!the!effect!of!which!will!likely!be!directly!dependent!on!the!prices!of!credits!in!both!carbon!markets.! 5.2 Methodological'Game'Changers' 5.2.1 Black#Carbon#The!inclusion!of!BC!in!both!methodological!calculations!would!greatly!increase!the!number!of!carbon!credits!certified!for!cookstove!projects.!This!is!the!case!even!when!including!both!OC!and!SO2,!two!cooling!species!that!are!coPemitted!with!BC.!These!additional!credits!could!considerably!enhance!the!profitability!of!such!projects,!the!largest!positive!change!in!the!scenarios!in!this!study!resulting!in!more!than!a!4Pfold!increase!in!the!number!of!carbon!credits.!There!has!been!some!discussion!regarding!allowing!credits!for!BC!(PCIA,!2011b),!but!there!has!not!been!any!serious!momentum!to!push!this!idea!forward.!One!of!the!challenges!for!integrating!BC!into!such!calculations!is!that!there!is!no!agreed!upon!GWP!value!and!estimates!of!this!can!vary!widely!with!higher!levels!of!uncertainty!as!it!is!much!more!variable!than!longer!lived!climate!forcers!such!as!CO2.!As!BC!climate!impacts!are!created!during!a!very!short!time!period,!the!use!of!different!GWP!time!frames!will!greatly!influence!how!the!impact!of!BC!is!perceived.!Therefore!representing!the!impacts!of!BC!with!GWP!is!not!ideal,!but!is!the!current!standard!widely!used!for! ! 52! understanding!climatePforcing!impacts.!Additionally!the!impacts!of!BC!can!be!very!different!depending!on!the!regional!location.!As!its!warming!effect!is!due!to!the!absorption!of!sunlight!through!decreased!albedo,!if!these!particles!land!on!a!black!surface,!such!as!pavement,!the!warming!impact!will!be!very!different!than!when!landing!on!a!white!surface,!such!as!a!glacier;!the!prior!having!minimal!or!no!warming!impact!with!the!latter!greatly!increasing!the!climate!forcing!effect.!This!presents!a!challenge!to!represent!actual!climate!impacts!without!making!the!methodologies!by!which!to!determine!them!prohibitively!complex.!As!approximately!60%!of!global!BC!emissions!are!from!contained!combustion!(Bond!et!al.,!2004),!incentivizing!the!reduction!of!BC!through!cookstove!projects!has!the!potential!to!significantly!mitigate!climate!warming!relevant!emissions.!In!addition,!the!emission!of!BC,!unlike!CO2!and!CH4,!is!directly!related!to!the!emissions!of!PM2.5.!However,!in!this!analysis!the!inclusion!of!BC!does!not!reflect!the!same!pattern!of!health!benefits!for!all!stove!scenarios!(See!Table#5).!Therefore!simply!including!BC!will!not!account!for!all!health!considerations!even!though!it!does!significantly!account!for!additional!climate!impacts!not!currently!included!in!either!methodology.!More!research!into!the!relationship!between!BC!and!climate!and!health!benefits!of!cookstoves!could!help!to!further!clarify!these!interactions.! 5.2.2 fNRB#The!fNRB!is!another!variable!that!can!greatly!influence!the!amount!of!carbon!credits!calculated.!This!value!attempts!to!prevent!carbon!leakage!by!only!crediting!CO2!emissions!reduced!from!the!reduction!of!nonPrenewable!biomass!fuel!sources.!Its!inclusion!requires!projects!to!be!in!areas!with!some!level!of!nonPrenewable!fuel! ! 53! extraction!to!qualify!for!carbon!credits.!As!the!fNRB!determines!the!amount!of!reduced!fuel!that!can!be!used!to!calculate!CO2!emission!reductions,!the!amount!of!carbon!credits!calculated!are!highly!sensitive!to!this!value.!The!large!difference!between!calculations!utilizing!fNRB!values!of!25%!and!95%!demonstrates!the!substantial!variability!included!in!calculations.!This!can!significantly!change!the!amount!of!carbon!credits!calculated!especially!when!applying!the!differences!per!individual!stove!to!an!entire!project!for!example!with!10,000!or!21,500!stoves.!In!the!range!of!values!most!commonly!reported!in!actual!projects,!75%P95%,!the!variability!is!reduced.!Still!the!scenario!with!the!largest!difference,!GS!LPGPU,!had!over!a!0.5!tCO2e!difference!in!credits!per!stove.!At!the!much!larger!project!scale,!even!small!differences!in!carbon!credits!calculated!based!upon!differences!in!the!value!of!the!fNRB!applied,!can!have!huge!impacts!potentially!greatly!changing!the!amount!of!income!earned.!In!general,!the!biomass!stoves!seem!to!perform!relatively!better!than!the!fossil!fuel!stoves!at!lower!values!of!fNRB.!Therefore!even!though!the!fossil!fuel!stoves!obtain!high!values!of!carbon!credits!when!employing!high!values!of!the!fNRB,!if!the!fNRB!was!low,!such!projects!may!not!make!financial!sense!in!the!context!of!carbon!credits.! The!current!high!levels!of!fNRB!in!actual!projects!may!reflect!the!fact!that:!a)cookstove!projects!at!lower!levels!of!fNRB!are!simply!not!financially!viable,!b)the!flexibility!in!methods!and!uncertainties!in!data!allow!project!developers!wide!latitude!in!determining!the!fNRB!and!therefore!maximize!their!carbon!credits,!or!c)a!combination!of!both!these!potential!influencing!factors.!If!uncertainty!in!the!calculations!of!the!fNRB!was!reduced!and!actual!values!of!the!fNRB!were!deemed!to! ! 54! be!lower!than!the!current!high!values,!this!could!significantly!change!the!amount!of!credits!calculated!in!all!scenarios.!As!the!uncertainty!and!lack!of!specific!guidance!for!calculating!this!number!may!be!resulting!in!inaccurately!reported!emission!reductions!(Johnson!et!al.,!2010),!this!is!an!area!where!more!research!is!needed!to!reduce!the!uncertainty!incorporated!in!these!values.! 5.2.3 Propagation#of#Uncertainty#In!the!two!prior!sections,!uncertainty!linked!with!both!BC!and!fNRB!variables!was!discussed.!It!is!important!to!point!out!that!when!carbon!credits!are!calculated!the!uncertainties!in!all!variables!are!compounded.!The!specific!levels!of!uncertainty!associated!with!variables!which!disproportionately!impact!the!outcomes!in!the!number!of!credits!calculated!will!have!the!largest!impact!(e.g.!BC).!Again!there!are!tradeoffs!between!efforts!to!obtain!estimates!and!the!estimates’!accuracy.!The!inclusion!of!CDM’s!default!EF,!reduces!the!efforts!required,!but!is!misrepresentative!of!actual!emission!reduction!interactions.!Still!this!default!provides!a!conservative!estimate.!For!variables!such!as!the!fNRB!and!especially!BC,!which!both!can!considerably!determine!the!amount!of!credits!calculated,!such!tradeoffs!need!to!be!addressed!in!conversations!about!developing!expectable!methodologies!that!are!conservative!and!as!representative!as!possible.! 5.3 Reducing'Already'Low'Levels'of'Exposure?'The!application!of!Pope!et!al.!(2009)’s!dosePresponse!curve!to!represent!IAP!impacts!has!a!few!important!implications!worth!noting.!In!Smith!and!Peel!(2008)’s!work!using!the!dosePresponse!relationship!to!estimate!impacts!of!IAP!on!CVD,!the! ! 55! greatest!relative!risk!reduction!occurs!when!switching!from!low!levels!of!exposure!(1!mg/day)!to!even!lower!levels!of!exposure!(0.1!mg/day).!This!implies!that!to!have!the!largest!impact!on!health,!efforts!should!be!focused!on!reducing!already!low!levels!of!exposure!to!become!even!lower.!As!this!relationship!is!extrapolated!for!IAP,!stronger,!empirical!support!is!needed!to!confirm!this.!Still!if!such!a!relationship!holds!true!it!could!have!significant!and!perhaps!unintuitive!consequences!for!policy!if!health!is!a!major!priority.!!Namely,!it!would!imply!that!the!switch!from!traditional!stoves!to!marginally!improved!biomass!stoves!would!not!result!in!significant!health!improvements.! 5.4 Maximizing'Climate'and'Health'Benefits'The!best!three!stoves!for!maximizing!climate!and!health!benefits!in!this!analysis!were!the!WPFanPU17,!KeroPU,!and!LPGPU!stoves,!with!WPFanPU!being!the!only!possible!certifiable!option!under!the!CDM.!For!estimated!health!benefits,!the!individual!exposure!from!all!three!stoves!was!below!1!mg/day,!with!KeroPU!having!the!lowest!exposure!at!0.32!mg/day.!As!kerosene!has!other!health!and!safety!concerns!associated!with!its!use,!such!as!poisoning,!carcinogenic!effects!and!higher!risk!of!explosion!(Mehta!and!Shahpar,!2004),!LPG!is!a!preferred!fuel!from!an!overall!health!perspective.!However,!there!is!a!higher!cost!associated!with!its!use!and!it!requires!a!functional!fuel!supply!chain!as!compared!to!the!solid!fuel!stoves.!WPFanPU!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!17!This!study!used!a!different!PM2.5!EF!for!the!WPFanPU!stove!than!the!one!employed!for!the!same!stove!in!Grieshop!et!al.!(2011)!and!therefore!it!has!a!higher!health!performance!in!this!analysis!in!comparison!with!Grieshop!et!al.’s!(2011)!results.!There!still!remains!uncertainty!in!these!values!as!these!EF!values!rely!on!a!limited!set!of!EF!studies.!Better!EFs!are!need!for!more!accurate!calculations.! ! 56! is!the!cheapest!technology!among!the!top!three!stoves,!but!still!is!more!expensive!than!simpler!models!of!‘improved’!biomass!stoves.! The!measurements!of!EFs!used!in!this!analysis!were!from!WBTs!either!in!the!lab!or!in!the!field,!and!are!not!reflective!of!actual!inPhome!cooking.!Therefore!actual!emissions!will!likely!be!higher!than!represented!in!this!study.!There!is!a!greater!chance!this!effect!will!be!stronger!for!the!WPFanPU!stove!than!the!fossil!fuels!stoves!as!the!WPFanPU!burns!wood,!a!less!clean!burning!fuel!with!higher!variability!depending!on!type!of!wood!and!moisture!levels.!Still!WPFanPU!performs!better!than!other!forms!of!‘improved’!biomass!stoves,!which!would!probably!also!experience!increases!in!their!emissions!during!inPhome!cooking.! Another!consideration!not!integrated!into!this!study’s!estimates!is!differences!in!stove!tending!requirements.!If!for!example!the!biomass!stoves!require!more!time!tending!to!the!fuel!than!fossil!fuel!stoves,!this!may!increase!the!exposure!increasing!the!potential!for!negative!health!impacts.!As!there!are!many!variables!such!as!this!one!impacting!actual!exposure!and!resulting!health!impacts,!the!results!and!finding!in!this!study!only!provide!a!relative!comparison!between!the!technologies!included.! CharPU!is!a!much!cheaper!technology!and!burns!relatively!cleanly!with!a!decent!level!of!health!benefits,!but!has!very!high!emissions!associated!with!its!production.!Therefore!it!would!only!make!sense!as!a!carbon!credit!project!if!switching!from!a!less!improved!charcoal!stove!to!a!more!improved!charcoal!stove.!This!also!holds!true!for!the!coal!stoves,!which!had!low!or!negative!carbon!credits,!requiring!a!switch!from!less!improved!coal!technologies!to!more!improved!coal!technologies!if! ! 57! applying!for!carbon!credits.!For!health!benefits!vented!stoves!do!well!compared!to!similar!nonPvented!stoves!as!some!of!the!PM2.5!emissions!are!being!diverted!outside,!though!this!still!may!have!health!impacts!resulting!from!ambient!air!pollution,!especially!if!in!a!densely!populated!area!(Zhou!et!al.,!2011;!Wilkinson!et!al.,!2009).! As!switching!to!fossil!fuel!stoves!from!a!traditional!biomass!stove!is!not!possible!under!the!CDM!framework!it!would!not!be!possible!to!have!the!highest!levels!of!health!benefits!under!this!methodology.!Though!health!improves!in!all!scenarios!when!switching!from!the!traditional!stove,!with!the!exception!of!the!CoalPU!stove,!the!actual!resulting!health!impacts!can!only!currently!be!very!roughly!estimated.!! There!is!a!need!to!have!a!more!affordable!stove!technology!that!can!maximize!climate!and!health!benefits!to!similar!levels!as!the!top!three!performing!stoves!included!in!this!study’s!analyses!or!a!viable!means!to!either!reduce!costs!or!influence!user!prices!for!these!stoves.!This!will!be!dependent!upon!a!number!of!other!considerations!including!access!to!fuel,!appropriate!technology!design!and!effective!distribution!models!in!the!specific!project!locations.! 5.5 Fostering'Sustainable'Development'There!are!many!additional!dimensions!influencing!sustainable!development!outcomes!that!are!not!in!the!scope!of!this!research!which!also!need!to!be!taken!into!consideration!when!implementing!cookstove!projects!(See!Simon!et!al.,!2012;!Bumpus,!2011).!In!the!context!of!this!study!the!coPbenefits!of!improving!both!climate!and!health!conditions!are!shown!to!be!achieved!in!almost!all!scenarios!except!when!switching!to!the!coal!and!charcoal!stoves.!Yet!there!is!still!a!tradeoff! ! 58! between!the!maximization!of!these!coPbenefits.!Some!technologies!create!higher!levels!of!climate!benefits,!and!others!health.!Carbon!credit!projects!inherently!take!climate!benefits!into!consideration!as!their!measure!is!in!the!amount!of!CO2e!reduced,!but!development!benefits!including!health!are!not!integrated!into!this!mechanism.!Therefore!additional!efforts!need!to!be!made!to!ensure!that!projects’!priorities!are!transparent!and!evaluated!for!specific!outcomes!instead!of!claiming!‘winPwin’!benefits,!while!failing!to!recognize!the!potential!tradeoffs!between!positive!coPbenefits.!Decisions!involved!in!choosing!project!technology!and!determining!project!design!must!be!consciously!made!to!ensure!that!there!are!limited!tradeoffs!of!benefits!in!order!to!cultivate!actual!winPwin!projects.!Additional!considerations!also!need!to!be!taken!into!account!to!ensure!sustainable!development!outcomes!such!as!local!environmental!impact,!local!users!needs!and!levels!of!participation,!and!how!benefits!of!carbon!credits!are!distributed!to!foster!equitable!outcomes.!The!GS!framework!is!intended!to!ensure!higher!levels!of!sustainable!development,!but!as!this!study!shows!it!does!not!always!account!for!all!the!various!tradeoffs!possible!for!a!given!priority!area.! ! ! ! ! ! ! 59! 6 CONCLUSION'In!this!study!it!was!found!that!tradeoffs!do!exist!between!the!maximization!of!coPbenefits!for!the!number!of!carbon!credits!calculated!and!health!outcomes.!Therefore!if!GHG!reductions!or!improved!health!are!significant!priorities!these!need!to!be!explicitly!addressed!to!ensure!direct!results.!Three!technologies!were!identified!that!provide!both!high!climate!and!health!benefits,!the!KeroPU,!LPGPU!and!WPFanPU!stoves.!!However,!their!distribution!is!limited!due!to!their!high!costs.!Additionally,!the!fossil!fuels!stoves!if!switching!from!a!biomass!stove,!can!only!be!certified!under!the!GS!voluntary!emission!credits!methodology!and!require!established!fuel!supply!chains.!If!feasible,!there!is!a!need!for!more!affordable!biomass!stove!that!consistently!achieves!these!emission!levels!in!order!to!address!health!concerns!on!a!larger!scale.!Carbon!credits!provide!the!opportunity!to!potentially!subsidize!these!projects,!but!as!health!or!other!development!benefits!are!not!inherently!accounted!for!under!this!mechanism!these!issues!need!to!be!individually!and!directly!addressed!under!this!framework.! Within!the!carbon!credit!framework!further!tradeoffs!are!identified!as!the!GS!methodology!consistently!calculated!more!carbon!credits!than!the!CDM.!Still!the!actual!profitability!of!such!projects!will!be!greatly!dependent!on!the!price!the!credits!are!sold!for,!cost!of!certification,!size!of!the!project!and!demand!for!specific!types!of!credits.!Additionally,!the!CDM’s!equation!does!not!reflect!actual!emission!reduction!processes!as!accurately!as!GS!and!uses!a!misrepresentative!default!baseline!EF!in!its!calculations.!Other!considerations!regarding!carbon!credit!calculations!are!the!potential!inclusion!of!BC!and!the!accuracy!with!which!fNRB!is! ! 60! determined!as!both!greatly!influence!the!number!of!credits!calculated.!BC!has!the!potential!to!greatly!increase!profitability!of!such!projects!while!also!better!representing!climate!forcings!in!carbon!credit!calculations.!It!could!also!potentially!allow!for!cookstove!projects!to!apply!for!carbon!credits!even!in!areas!with!low!rates!of!nonPrenewable!fuel!sources.!For!the!fNRB,!as!it!is!a!highly!sensitive!variable,!more!robust!methods!are!needed!to!more!accurately!reflect!actual!emission!reductions.! As!implementation!of!cookstove!carbon!credit!projects!is!complex!and!multiPfaceted,!this!research!is!meant!to!present!further!considerations!for!this!process.!It!is!imperative!that!specific!priority!criteria!are!clarified!before!project!implementation!for!projects!framed!as!‘winPwin’!to!ensure!that!such!priorities!are!actually!achieved.! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! 61! 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