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Greenhouse gas emissions in mining operations : challenges and opportunities in British Columbia, Canada Ballantyne, Sheila Marie 2010

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 Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Mining Operations: Challenges and Opportunities In British Columbia, Canada  by Sheila Marie Ballantyne  B.Sc., Dalhousie University, 2006  A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF  MASTER OF APPLIED SCIENCE  in  The Faculty of Graduate Studies  (Mining Engineering)  THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA  (Vancouver) December, 2010 © Sheila Marie Ballantyne, 2010 ii  Abstract  This research explores how the mining industry of British Columbia is currently managing greenhouse gases (GHG) and seeks to understand regulations designed to limit emissions. The objective is to recommend options and approaches for effective GHG management strategies for the mining industry of British Columbia. Three research approaches are utilised; a review on the current state of GHG policies and technical options, an assessment of how the mining industry is managing GHG issues using content analysis, and modelled scenarios to illustrate some of the influences on overall emissions from a typical mine in British Columbia.  This research is initiated through a review on proposed GHG polices with influence on industry in British Columbia.  This review also discusses recent trends in GHG and fossil fuel dependency. The options available to meet emissions reductions are outlined, including economic tools and technology adoption. This review is a platform from which the mining industry of British Columbia can move forward in effective GHG management.  An analysis of documents published by mining firms operating in British Columbia reveals trends in their reporting of GHG related issues. The hypothesis posed is that while there are no reductions observed in GHG emissions, companies perceive an incentive to release qualitative information on the subject. The results of the analysis show an increase in qualitative reporting related to climate change since 2001, which may be in response to growing public awareness and impending governmental policies.  iii  Opportunities for GHG reductions for typical mines in British Columbia are explored using dynamic models. Systematic changes illustrate various scenarios of net emissions over time. It shows that small changes in transport and fuel types can cause significant reductions on mining emissions.   This research recommends that mining firms become proactive in response to GHG emissions polices; delayed preparation may result in increased opportunity costs. It suggests operational decisions use predicted GHG prices in cost-benefit analyses. Action now will prepare the mining industry for impending regulations with the added potential benefits of reduced fuel costs and improving environmental performance.    iv  Table of Contents Abstract ..................................................................................................................................... ii List of Tables ........................................................................................................................... vii List of Figures ......................................................................................................................... viii List of Abbreviations................................................................................................................. ix Acknowledgements .....................................................................................................................x 1 Overview of Research .........................................................................................................1 1.1 Introduction ..................................................................................................................1 1.2 Research Overview .......................................................................................................1 1.3 Motivation and Rationale ..............................................................................................3 1.4 Statement of the Problem ..............................................................................................4 1.5 Objectives of This Research ..........................................................................................5 1.6 Conclusion ....................................................................................................................7 2 Approach and Methods ........................................................................................................8 2.1 Introduction ..................................................................................................................8 2.2 Research Approach .......................................................................................................8 2.3 Approach One: Review of Polices and Technical Options in GHG Management ......... 10 2.3.1 Objective in Reviewing Policies and Technical Options ....................................... 11 2.3.2 Method: Thematic Literature Review ................................................................... 11 2.4 Approach Two: Content Analysis of Annual Reports .................................................. 12 2.4.1 Objective in the Content Analysis ........................................................................ 13 2.4.2 Methods Used for Content Analysis ..................................................................... 13 2.5 Approach Three: Modelling Greenhouse Gas Sources ................................................. 16 2.5.1 Objective in Identifying Greenhouse Gas Source ................................................. 17 2.5.2 Method: Dynamic Modelling ............................................................................... 18 2.5.3 Existing Emissions Scenarios ............................................................................... 18 2.6 Summary .................................................................................................................... 20 3 GHG Policies and Management Options: A Review .......................................................... 21 3.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................ 21 3.2 Climate Change, GHG Emissions, and Fossil Fuels ..................................................... 21 v  3.2.1 Climate Change and Carbon Dioxide ................................................................... 21 3.2.2 The Future of Fossil Fuels .................................................................................... 25 3.3 GHG Emissions in Mining and Canada ....................................................................... 28 3.4 Current GHG Emissions Policies ................................................................................ 31 3.5 Economic Tools .......................................................................................................... 38 3.5.1 Cap and Trade ...................................................................................................... 39 3.5.2 Carbon Offsets ..................................................................................................... 39 3.5.3 Carbon Tax .......................................................................................................... 43 3.6 Technical Options in GHG Management ..................................................................... 44 3.6.1 Energy Efficiency ................................................................................................ 44 3.6.2 Land Management ............................................................................................... 45 3.6.3 Fuel Switching and Alternative Energy Sources ................................................... 46 3.6.4 Carbon Capture and Storage ................................................................................. 51 3.7 Chapter Summary ....................................................................................................... 62 4 Content Analysis and Model Scenarios Results ................................................................. 63 4.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................ 63 4.2 Content Analysis ......................................................................................................... 63 4.2.1 Data Sources ........................................................................................................ 63 4.2.2 Content Analysis Results ..................................................................................... 66 4.2.3 Results Validation ................................................................................................ 72 4.3 Greenhouse Gas Model Scenarios ............................................................................... 73 4.3.1 Data Sources and Base Cases ............................................................................... 74 4.3.2 Typical Metal Mine Emissions Scenarios ............................................................. 82 4.3.3 Typical Coal Mine Emissions Scenarios............................................................... 88 4.4 Conclusions ................................................................................................................ 97 5 Discussion ......................................................................................................................... 98 5.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................ 98 5.2 Strengths, Limitations, and Effectiveness of the Research Approach ........................... 98 5.2.1 The Thematic Review on Current State of GHG Topics ....................................... 98 5.2.2 The Content Analysis on Mining Company Annual Reports................................. 99 5.2.3 Emissions Scenarios of Typical Mines ............................................................... 101 vi  5.3 Greenhouse Gas Management in Mining: Insight from Literature Review ................. 101 5.4 Qualitative Reporting: Insight from the Content Analysis .......................................... 104 5.5 Detailed Emissions Sources: Insight from Modelling Scenarios ................................ 105 5.6 Conclusions .............................................................................................................. 107 6 Concluding Remarks and Future Research ....................................................................... 109 6.1 Introduction .............................................................................................................. 109 6.2 Summary of the Research Approach ......................................................................... 109 6.3 Recommendations for Future Research ..................................................................... 109 6.4 Closing Remarks ....................................................................................................... 111 References .............................................................................................................................. 112 Appendices ............................................................................................................................. 130 Appendix A: Content Analysis ............................................................................................ 130 Appendex B: Emissions Scenarios....................................................................................... 152    vii  List of Tables Table 2.1: Summary of Research Approach ............................................................................... 10 Table 3.1: Concentrations, Lifetimes, and Relative GWP of Various GHG ................................ 23 Table 3.1: Concentrations, Lifetimes, and Relative GWP of Various GHG ................................ 24 Table 3.2: GHG Direct and Indirect Emissions in Canada from Metal Mining ........................... 29 Table 3.3: Intergovernmental Carbon Policy Groups Relevant to British Columbia ................... 33 Table 3.4: Key Canadian Federal Climate and Carbon Frameworks .......................................... 35 Table 3.5: Key Provincial (BC) Organisations, Plans, and Working Groups .............................. 36 Table 3.6: A Short List of CO2e Offset Selling Companies based in Canada.............................. 42 Table 3.7: Canadian GHG Emissions Associated with Land Use ............................................... 45 Table 3.8: Geological Storage Options ...................................................................................... 58 Table 4.1: Annual Reports Used in this Content Analysis .......................................................... 65 Table 4.2 Key Political and Economic Events ........................................................................... 71 Table 4.3 Carbon Intensities for Metal Mining Operations ........................................................ 76 Table 4.4: Carbon Intensities for Coal Mining Operations ......................................................... 77 Table 4.5: Summary of Calculations used to .............................................................................. 94 Table 4.6: Typical Coal Mine with Natural Gas Instead of Coal for Energy ............................... 95 Table 4.7: Typical Coal Mine with 50% Reduction of Coal use for Energy ............................... 96 Table A.1: Summary of the Annual Reports used in the Content Analysis ............................... 130 Table A.2: Content Analysis Results for Sustain/Sustainable ................................................... 135 Table A.3: Content Analysis Results for Greenhouse .............................................................. 146 Table A.4: Content Analysis Results for Cap and Trade .......................................................... 148 Table A.5: Content Analysis Results for Carbon ..................................................................... 149 Table A.6: Summary of all Occurrences of "Sustainability" and "Sustainable" ........................ 150 Table A.7: Summary of all Occurrences of "Greenhouse" ....................................................... 150 Table A.8: Summary of all Occurrences of "Cap and Trade" ................................................... 151 Table A.9: Summary of all Occurrences of "Carbon" .............................................................. 151 Table B.1: Metal Mine Base Model ......................................................................................... 153 Table B.2: Coal Mine Base Model .......................................................................................... 155 Table B.3: Metal Mine with Increasingly Efficient Haul Truck Fleet (5%) .............................. 157 Table B.4: Metal Mine with Increasingly Efficient Haul Truck Fleet (25%) ............................ 159 Table B.5: Typical Coal Mine - Increasingly Efficient Fleet of Trucks (5%)............................ 160 Table B.6: Typical Coal Mine - Increasingly Efficient Fleet of Trucks (25%) .......................... 162 Table B.7: Typical Coal Mine: No Use of Coal for Energy ...................................................... 163 Table B.8: Typical Coal Mine: 50% Less Coal Used for Energy.............................................. 165   viii  List of Figures Figure 3.1: Global Anthropogenic GHG Emissions ................................................................... 24 Figure 3.2: Relative GHG Emissions by Industry in Canada ...................................................... 29 Figure 3.3: Diagram of the three commonly used CO2 capture technologies: ............................. 53 Figure 4.1: Occurrences of "Sustainability" and "Sustainable" in Annual Reports...................... 67 Figure 4.2: Occurrences of "Greenhouse" in Annual Reports ..................................................... 68 Figure 4.3: Occurrences of "Cap and Trade" in Annual Reports ................................................ 69 Figure 4.4: Occurrences of "Carbon" in Annual Reports ............................................................ 70 Figure 4.5: Combined Results of the Content Analysis with ...................................................... 71 Figure 4.6: Generalised Mine Life Cycle ................................................................................... 75 Figure 4.7: Carbon Intensities from 2004 to 2008 ...................................................................... 78 Figure 4.8: Base Case Model for a Typical Metal Mine in British Columbia ............................. 80 Figure 4.9 Base Case Model for a Typical Coal Mine in British Columbia ................................ 81 Figure 4.10 Relative 2009 CO2e Emissions at Highland Valley Copper Mine ............................ 83 Figure 4.11: GHG by Source for a Typical Metal Mine Using Current Trends ........................... 84 Figure 4.12: Typical Metal Mine with Increasingly Efficient Fleet of Haul Trucks (5%) ........... 85 Figure 4.13: Typical Metal Mine with Increasingly Efficient Fleet of Haul Trucks (25%) ......... 87 Figure 4.14: Relative 2009 CO2e Emissions for all of Teck Coal Operations .............................. 88 Figure 4.15: GHG by Source for a Typical Coal Mine Using Current Trends ............................ 89 Figure 4.16: Typical Coal Mine with Increasingly Efficient Fleet of Haul Trucks (5%) ............. 91 Figure 4.17: Typical Coal Mine with Increasingly Efficient Fleet of Haul Trucks (25%) ........... 92 Figure 5.1: Simplified Decision Chart for Emissions Reductions ............................................. 103   ix  List of Abbreviations BC British Columbia CEWN carbon dioxide equivalent warming number CF4 Tetrafluoromethane CFC-11 Trichlorofluoromethane CH4 Methane CO2 carbon dioxide CO2e carbon dioxide equivalent F-gases hydrofluorocarbon, perfluorocarbon, and sulphur hexafluoride GDP Gross Domestic Product GHG greenhouse gas(es) GWP global warming potential HFC-23 fluoroform IAC Inter-Academy Council ICAP International Carbon Partnership IEA International Energy Agency IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change MAC Mining Association of Canada t, kt, Mt tonne, kilotonnes (1x103 tonnes), megatonnes (1x106 tonnes) N2O nitrous oxide PCT Pacific Carbon Trust PJ petajoules (1x1015 joules) ppb parts per billion ppm parts per million UN United Nations    x  Acknowledgements  Much thanks to all of the students, professors, and administrators of the University of British Columbia's Norman B. Keevil Institute of Mining Engineering whose kind gestures are too numerous to count. Particular appreciations go to my thesis supervisor, Dr. Michael Hitch, and to fellow greenhouse gas researchers in the department, Sarah Hindle, Anthony Jacobs, and Jiajie Li. Much thanks also to Paul Hughes and Dr. W. Scott Dunbar for assistance with modelling.  This research is greatly enhanced by the data on greenhouse gas emissions from Teck Resources Ltd. generously given by Mark Edwards. Thanks also to the Mining Association of British Columbia, with particular thanks to Ben Chalmers for insight and support.  Special thanks to friends near and far, old and new, with whom I have been able to maintain a sense of humour and optimism throughout this process. To my family who have always stood by me, especially my parents and grandparents, I am forever indebted and grateful. Finally, as always, my most sincere and deepest appreciations go to Hugh Samson, whom without this and much more would be impossible. Thank you.  1  1 Overview of Research 1.1 Introduction This introductory chapter is an overview of the research presented herein. The motivation and rational in investigating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the mining industry is discussed. Focus is directed towards proposed legislated GHG reductions and how the mining industry may be affected by such policies. Preparing for the potential future costs required to meet emissions may reduce reaction time and has potential immediate benefits, such as reduction in energy costs and reducing government permitting times and risks. This research makes recommendations including finding strategies to best react to changing GHG policies how investments and investigations should be focused. Three approaches are employed; a literature review, a content analysis on mining company documents, and modelled scenarios of shifts in emissions sources. If the mining industry reacts effectively, it can become a leader in GHG management and significantly reduce potential risks and costs associated with proposed emissions reductions policies. 1.2 Research Overview  The research approach is divided into three areas. First, a literature review describes current GHG emissions levels, policies, and technologies. Where these emissions levels are heading and the policies that are developing are discussed. Second, in an effort to understand how mining companies have responded to any pressures to reduce emissions, a content analysis assesses the annual reports by companies operating mines in British Columbia. Third, two base models are developed from industry-wide information for representative coal mine and a metal mine. Recommendations for future research and investment to meet emissions reductions are made. The chapters are summarised the list that follows: 2  Chapter One: Overview of Research • Research overview • Motivations • Objectives Chapter Two: Approach and Methods • Methods employed in the three approaches: literature review, content analysis, and dynamic modelling Chapter Three: GHG Policies and Management Options: A Review • Climate change and the scientific developments • Future of fossil fuels • Current GHG polices • Economic tools • GHG management options Chapter Four: Content Analysis and Model Scenarios Results • Data Sources • Results of the content analysis • Development of base case scenarios • Results of simulations on the base cases Chapter Five: Discussion • Discussion of findings from each approach • Strengths and Limitations of methods and data sources • Overall conclusions and lessons learned • Recommendations made from analyses Chapter Six: Concluding Remarks and Future Research • Summary of findings • Concluding remarks on contributions made to knowledge base in greenhouse gas emissions management • Recommendations for future research   3  1.3 Motivation and Rationale Mining operations and their parent firms encounter increasing pressure to use social, environment, and economic best practices both in Canada and globally (Jenkins et al., 2004). Investors, banks, insurers, governments, and communities insist that mining companies meet the requirements of environmental preservation while maintaining long-term viability of the industry (Veiga et al., 2002). Corporate social responsibility and environmental best practices have become the expected norm and are more often than not, required to gain community support and government approval and permitting. Rising concerns about the effects of anthropogenic GHG emissions on local and regional climates have brought about the development of numerous multi-national assessments (e.g. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), frameworks (e.g. the Kyoto Accord; Western Climate Initiative), and policies (e.g. British Columbia’s Carbon Tax). There have been several proposals for reduction targets through governmental legislation (e.g. B.C. Government, 2008; Government of Canada, 2008). Ambiguous debate remains as to the level of emissions required to minimise the effects of climate change on the biosphere (IPCC, 2002), which technologies would be the most effective in achieving reductions (NRTEE, 2009), and what economic mechanisms will be most effective (Labatt, 2007). Leaders in the mining industry recognise that they must plan for potential GHG emissions regulations, as demonstrated later in this research. The industry must respond to public demand to keep within environmental best practices and meet reduction targets effectively and timely. Economics, logistics, and dependency on fossil fuels, are complex. Questions as to how to effectively prepare such that the results are both environmentally effective and economically feasible remain uncertain. This research aims to address these questions, contribute to the 4  understanding of the challenges, and to suggest effective strategies for GHG management and reduction. If effective reaction is achieved in a timely manner, the mining industry can become a leader in GHG emission reduction technologies and benefit financially through proposed economic mechanisms. 1.4 Statement of the Problem Stakeholders, such as investors, communities, and the general public, increasingly demand aggressive reductions in GHG emissions across all industries, including mining operations (Mc Michael et al., 2006). While debate remains amongst some groups, including The Heartland Institute, The Cato Institute, and The American Enterprise Institute, scholarly literature is dominated by research that strongly suggests GHG emissions are causing changes in the climate and could lead to disastrous results for all ecosystems, including human habitats (IPCC, 2001a; IEA, 2009). Significant reports, such as the Stern Review, commissioned in 2006 by the British Government, suggest that the future benefits gained by early and strong action significantly outweigh current costs (Stern, 2006). In response to pressure spurred by the growing public awareness of climate change issues (Webster et al., 2003), governments are developing regulations to set limits on GHG emissions (Government of Canada, 2008; BC Provincial Government, 2008).  Several studies show that great uncertainty exists in the degree of emissions reductions that may be required through regulations and when these legislations may become enforced (Pizer, 1999; Webster, 2003; Tol, 2004). While it is generally agreed that climate change will have some effect, the severity and consequences remain ambiguous (Webster et al., 2003). 5  Similarly, the policies that have been implemented to date and those that are currently being developed by governments have unclear objectives (Helm et al., 2003). To date, none of the emissions reduction targets set by the Canadian Government have not been enforced (Simpson et al., 2007). Factors, such as the future price of carbon and technological advances in efficiency and fuel alternatives are at various stages of maturity (Tol, 2004). The mining industry must prepare, despite these significant uncertainties.  It is vital to understand the rapidly evolving environmental, technological, and political factors that will govern the mining industry's reaction to GHG regulations. Any effective GHG management decision will take into account both the environmental effectiveness and economic feasibilities. This research attempts to assess the current situation and propose strategies to meet future challenges. It aims to contribute to the understanding of the environmental, technological, political, and economic factors that will dictate the responses of the mining industry, particularly in British Columbia and Canada. 1.5 Objectives of This Research Reductions in GHG emissions may become a requirement in the near future according to proposed polices from the federal and provincial governments (Government of Canada, 2008; Government of B.C., 2008a). It is up to the mining industry to determine which options are feasible and have the greatest potential for benefits. As Godet (2000) states, “Action becomes meaningless without a goal, and only anticipation points the way to action and gives it both meaning and direction” (p. 4). This research assists in setting these goals by suggesting direction for strategic future planning in GHG management. 6  The first step in reaching these objectives is to make a clear statement of the current state of affairs. A review is presented that discusses current GHG levels, fossil fuel dependency, and climate change. The policies that are currently being developed by governments to reduce GHG emissions are outlined, as well as the economic tools and technical options to meet these reduction targets. The second step is to assess how mining firms have responded to proposed climate change policies to date by conducting a content analysis on annual reports from mining companies operating in British Columbia. The third step is to model emissions scenarios from typical mines in this province. Recommendations are made for effective reactions to minimise future regulatory risks and financial costs to the mining industry. There is great uncertainty in what future regulations may require (Webster, 2003) and the economic tools in GHG management such as cap and trade may work (Labatt, 2007). Given the record of lack of commitment from the Canadian government in meeting past emissions targets (Simpson et al. 2007), it is difficult to set definitive targets and assess specific costs for reaction. This research makes a series of recommendations for future research. It recommends that the mining become proactive in its response by planning for several future scenarios of regulations and carbon prices. Proactive planning may reduce future reaction time and could have added benefits such as reduced energy costs (Chen et al., 2002). 7  1.6 Conclusion  This introductory overview describes how the mining industry may face future legislated reductions through GHG reduction policies. It suggests that preparing for potential future costs in achieving these reductions will lower reaction time to comply. If the mining industry reacts effectively, it can become a leader in GHG management and significantly reduce potential risks and costs associated with proposed emissions reductions policies.  8  2 Approach and Methods 2.1 Introduction This chapter outlines the approach taken for this research and the three methods used to reach the research objectives. The approach is rooted in effective management of greenhouse gases (GHG) in the mining industry. The research objective of achieving an improved understanding in how the industry is managing GHG issues is described. The methods used in pursuit of this objective, a literature review, a content analysis, and modelling is discussed. 2.2 Research Approach  This research seeks to better understand how greenhouse gas emissions can be managed effectively. Particular focus is on operations in the Province of British Columbia to make the scope of this research data and the recommendations derived from the analysis manageable. Canadian provinces each have unique environmental policies and authority (Harrison, 2002, p. 69). Despite the independent nature of provincial legislations, lessons learned from this research can translate to other areas of Canada because greenhouse gas legislation is expected to operate at a federal level and exist within international conventions (Rose et al., 2003).  The three approaches in this research, as summarised in Table 2.1, were not born in isolation, but instead grew from one into the next. The first step in this research is a preliminary review of literature on climate change and the mining industry. This review revealed a need to outline the current state of affairs with respect to policy, economic tools, current proposals for greenhouse gas management, and technological options in meeting potential future limits on emissions. This in turn led to the development of a standalone document that reviews these global topics from the perspective of the mining industry of British Columbia, Canada. The 9  methods employed in this review are summarised in the subsequent section and the result is presented in Chapter Three.  Over the past decade there has been an increase in public awareness of the effects of climate change (Webster et al., 2003; Catelin, 2008). The Canadian Government has put forward several proposals to limit greenhouse gas emissions, dating back to 1998 with the Kyoto protocol (United Nations, 1998). Despite growing public awareness and proposed policies from governments, emissions in mining have been stable or growing (MAC, 2009, p. 43). The author perceived an increase in qualitative references to GHG emissions from mining company reports since 2001. The hypothesis developed herein is that there is an increase use of such terms related to GHG management, such as ‘cap and trade’, in response to a perceived incentive to discuss greenhouse gases and sustainability, but there is no incentive to actually reduce emissions. If such an incentive to limit emissions did exist, then reductions would be expected. To analyse this observation in an objective manner, the technique of content analysis is employed. A description of this method is contained in this chapter. The data used and results are presented in Chapter Four and Appendix A. Chapter Five discusses these results and assesses the effectiveness of this approach in meeting the research objectives. The third and final phase of this research is to model greenhouse gases from typical mines in British Columbia. The development of two models, one representing a typical metal mine and another a coal mine operating in the province, allowed for simulations to assess the effects of various changes in the greenhouse gas sources. Dynamic modelling theories are used for these models. The method is outlined later in this chapter.  The data used and results of the simulations are presented in Chapter Four and contained in Appendix B. A full discussion of the results and an assessment of the effectiveness of the approach are presented in Chapter Five. 10  Table 2.1: Summary of Research Approach Research Question Research Objective Method What GHG policies will affect the mining industry of British Columbia? What economic tools and technical options are available? Identify polices, economic tools, and technical options in their current state and attempt to assess their potential effects on mining firms and operations. Conduct a thematic review on the technologies and management strategies in academic literature and government documents. Is there evidence of increased qualitative reporting? If so, what does this imply about the reaction of the industry to shifting legislations and public opinion? Assess the hypothesis that there is an incentive to report qualitative efforts in GHG management despite there being no real reductions in emissions. Using content analysis, find trends for qualitative reporting in annual reports by mining firms with operations in British Columbia. What are the significant sources of greenhouse gases at mine sites and what actions can be taken to reduce overall GHG emissions? Analyse the greenhouse gas sources of typical mines and estimate the influences of overall emissions. Develop a dynamic model that quantifies various greenhouse gas sources. Create scenarios for reducing emissions from these sources.  The following sections explain these three approaches, justifying and discussing the methods chosen. 2.3 Approach One: Review of Polices and Technical Options in GHG Management  To contribute to the understanding of how the mining industry should best manage greenhouse gas emissions a review of current policies and technical options is required. An exploration of how climate change models have developed and the effects greenhouse gases have on natural environments will help mould more effective responses. Several proposals have been put forward by federal and provincial governments (Government of B.C., 2008a; and Government of Canada, 2008) that incorporate studies (Stern, 2006; Jaccard, 2005) to recommend the best blend of economic tools and technologies to achieve emission reduction targets. The first approach in this research is to develop a review that compiles recommendations from research groups (NRTEE, 2009) and governments and attempts to assess the effects on the mining industry of British Columbia.  This review is can act as a standalone document for reference on the current state of affairs in GHG management, presented in Chapter Three. 11  2.3.1 Objective in Reviewing Policies and Technical Options  The objective in this review is to understand where current research in economic tools and technologies currently are and attempt to predict where legislation and policies are heading. After an initial literature review of the economic and technical issues surrounding greenhouse gas management by industry in British Columbia, three key influential bodies were identified: the provincial government (Government of B.C., 2008a), the federal government (Government of Canada, 2008), and the United Nations (IPCC, 2001a). From these three bodies, five areas emerged for research focus. These five key areas encompass the issues identified by the influential bodies enable a focussed assessment through literature review from external sources and research bodies. These research areas are summarised in the following list: • Climate change models and the role of carbon dioxide • GHG emissions due to mining activity • Current greenhouse gas policies • Economic tools • Technology and behaviour change options A literature review has been conducted to assess these five research areas. This review is can serve as a base of knowledge from which to move forward. 2.3.2 Method: Thematic Literature Review  An extensive volume of literature exists on the topics surrounding climate change, proposed mitigation technologies, and GHG governmental policies. For example, through the publisher and online journal data base, Springer-Link, a search for “climate change” yields more than one hundred thousand results; the search term “carbon capture” yields almost twenty thousand results. It is not feasible to review such an amount of information. A thematic literature review is thus used, which organises literature around topics or issues (UNC, 1998). Themes were chosen to filter information on this topic into manageable sizes while ensuring that key 12  issues are included. This was achieved by selecting four primary sources to develop the research aspects previously discussed. These four sources are the National Round Table on the Environment and Economy (NRTEE, 2009), the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2001a), the provincial government (Government of B.C., 2008a), and the federal government (Government of Canada, 2008). From these sources, their recommendations for technology adoption and economic tools are researched from other sources. 2.4 Approach Two: Content Analysis of Annual Reports Two primary forces dictate the actions of publicly traded mining companies: shareholder (i.e. public) requirements and governmental regulations (Patten, 2002; Tilt 1994; Hesse-Biber et al., 2010; Wilmshurst et al., 2010). This research hypothesizes that in recent years the threat of looming regulatory policies ( Government of Canada, 2008) and evolving public opinion on climate change issues ( Giddens, 2008) have influenced the short and long term goals of mining companies. Despite there being no reductions in GHG emissions from mining, qualitative discussion of GHG emissions appear to be increasingly abundant over the years 2001 to 2010. This research seek to create an objective data set that quantifies this increase in qualitative reporting and postulate possible causes of any apparent trends. The hypothesis developed herein suggests that there is no incentive to make real cuts to emissions given the growing or stable levels of GHG due to mining (MAC, 2009); however there is incentive to discuss topics of GHG management. 13  2.4.1 Objective in the Content Analysis  The primary objective of this analysis is to prove or disprove the hypothesis that while there has been no significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by the mining industry, or any other industry in Canada (MAC, 2009), an incentive to give qualitative description of efforts in reduction exists. This hypothesis is developed by the subjective observation that key terms associated with greenhouse gas management appears increasingly often over time. This research proposes potential causes for this increase and postulates the perceived incentives that spur such reporting. Content analysis of mining company documents yields an objective assessment of this observation and develops a data set from which trends are used to draw conclusions. 2.4.2 Methods Used for Content Analysis  Content analysis is a systematic and objective method of identifying specific characteristics of text documents (Berelson, 1952; GAO, 1996; Krippendorff, 1980; Weber, 1990; and Stemler, 2001). This technique works by assigning codes to data to and counting the number of occurrences of a certain defined word or idea occurs. It allows for large volumes of data to be sorted into manageable fractions in a replicable manner that can then be analyzed (GAO, 1996). Most content analyses assess text, although video and images can be similarly analysed ( Stigler et al., 1999; Bauer, 2000; Wheelock et al., 2000).  If the data is durable (i.e. is still available in the future), and the process can be replicated the technique of content analysis in understanding its message can be effectively used and validated (Stemler, 2001). The technique of content analysis was chosen for this research because it allows for an objective assessment of the messages published in documents. This analysis is based on the annual reports published by mining companies operating in British Columbia. Annual reports, including those published by mining companies, are the most important publically disseminated 14  document from a firm (Neu et al., 1998). The operational results of mining related activities are described and provide a forum to outline their company strategy in regards to short and long term goals. If GHG management is part of a company’s strategy, a discussion of the issues surrounding this topic would be presented in their annual report. A full description of the data used is presented in Chapter Four and Appendix A.  The empirical correlation between voluntary environmental disclosure and environmental performances remains unresolved (Hughes et al., 2001; Patten, 2002; Al-Tuwaijiri et al., 2004; Jenkins et al., 2004; and Clarkson et al., 2008). Two dominant and opposing schools of thought exist on the subject. A positive correlation between disclosure and performance is predicted by voluntary disclosure theory (Verrecchia, 1983; and Dye, 1985), which relies on the idea that firms with positive environmental performance will announce their actions while poor performers remain silent (Clarkson et al., 2008). A negative correlation is, however, predicted within socio-political frameworks such as the legitimacy and stakeholder theories (Patten, 2002). Legitimacy theory, first developed by Hogner (1982), suggests that public disclosures are a reaction to expectations from external groups and are motivated by the need to legitimise corporate activities (Tilt, 1994; and Wilmshurst et al., 2010).  Stakeholder theory states that corporate decision makers must take actions that consider the interests of all stakeholders in a firm (Jensen, 2010, p. 32); a stakeholder is any entity that can affect or be affected by the corporation such as employees, ecosystems, or organisations (Freeman, 1984, p. 53).  Both stakeholder and legitimacy theories predict that firms with poor environmental track records will face more pressure from key stakeholders. Such companies will seek to legitimise their operations through voluntary disclosure and shift the perceptions of performance held by stakeholders, but not necessarily actually improve environmental performance. The difference 15  between research projects which show a negative correlation between performance and disclosure and those that have a positive correlation may be due in part to poor research design (Clarkson et al., 2008; and Patten, 2002). It seems, however, that eventually disclosures will need to be backed with evidence, and thus the firms disclosing under pressure to report will need to improve performance at some point.  As Stemler (2001) outlined, based on research by Krippendorff (1980), each effective content analysis must answer six questions: Which data are analysed? How are they defined? What is the population from which they are drawn? What is the context relative to the data that is analysed? What are the boundaries of the analysis? What is the target of the inferences? These six questions were used to shape the approach for this research.  There is software available for content analysis, such as ATLAS/ti and NUDIST, but was not utilised in this research. Instead, the words were counted by simply using a search in Adobe® pdf reader. This method allowed for the context to be recorded and documented with ease. This approach is possible because the data set is a manageable size; simple word counts without the assistance of software would likely not be feasible with a larger data set. Each word or phrase that is counted is coded using the Wiseman Index. This coding system, created by Wiseman (1982) based on work by Ingram and Fraser (1980), assigns numerical scores from three to one based on the type of disclosure. A quantitative disclosure receives a score of three [3], qualitative is a two [2], and if the searched word or phrase is mentioned in general terms it is assigned a one [1]. Although the Wiseman Index has been criticised for placing too much weight on quantitative 16  data ( Patten, 2008), its simplicity is well suited to the data analysed for this research. The analysis used in this research did use the score outlined by Ingram and Fraser (1980), but all of the occurrences received a score of two. Thus, the score is not included in the results final nor the discussion as it has no meaning in this case; these scores are included in Appendix A. Stemler (2001) suggests three issues can cause erroneous results in a context analysis. First, if a number of documents are missing or not available in a group, the results will not adequately reflect that population and thus the analysis may not go ahead. Second, a portion of a document may be missing or certain passages may be too ambiguous to code. Neither of these issues was encountered during the analysis for this research. Finally, records that do not fit the definition of the determined requirements for included documents must not be included, although their exclusion should be noted. This too was not encountered for this research, largely because the data set was well defined and restricted to annual reports from company websites of companies with operations in British Columbia. To limit any potential errors with using the word find function in Adobe® pdf reader, three reports selected at random were analysed by hand by two different people, the author and a research colleague. 2.5 Approach Three: Modelling Greenhouse Gas Sources  Models, such as diagrams, blueprints, and mathematical simulations, are simplified representations of the real world (Giere, 2004). They are useful when they isolate part of complex systems, when new knowledge or perspectives are gained, and when they predict the outcomes with various inputs (Ford, 1999). The behaviour of a system over time is studied by developing a simulation model based on a set of assumptions, which once developed and validated, can be used to illustrates various scenarios (Banks et al., 2009). It is difficult, if not impossible, to represent all the parameters that influence phenomena in a system, thus 17  simulations are rarely correct; they are, after all, simplified versions of reality and thus by nature cannot be all-encompassing (Sterman, 2002). This simplification is nonetheless important as it has the ability to makes complex systems understandable and key driving forces identifiable (Godet, 2000). The models in this research are simplified examples of typical mines operating in British Columbia that seek to understand the influence of changes in various GHG sources on the overall emissions from a mine. 2.5.1 Objective in Identifying Greenhouse Gas Source  The objective in developing models of GHG emissions is to gain insight into the various GHG sources and estimate their influences on changes in overall emissions. There is no way to accurately predict or find statistics for the future, and the past and present do not always give clear indications to what may happen (Lewis, 1998, P. 105). Projections of future events are generally not meant to reveal some prefabricated future, but rather they enable interpreters to consider the future as something we collectively create (Jouvenel, 2000, p. 37). The scenarios developed for this research are not meant to be predictions of the future but rather tools to illustrate how changing the amount of GHG from particular sources can affect overall emission levels. The results of these scenarios can lead to recommendations for future targets of investment and research. 18  2.5.2 Method: Dynamic Modelling  Models that are based on mathematics are divided into two groups: static and dynamic. Static models are used to learn about a system at rest, useful for studying physical forces or price analysis; dynamic models are used to learn about a system over time (Ford, 1999, p. 6). Dynamic modelling is used in this research. The goal of using this model is to gain insight into the influencing factors and parameters, and how the future might look for the mining industry with respect to GHG emissions. 2.5.3 Existing Emissions Scenarios  A commonly used equation in discussing the environmental issues surrounding any pollutant is the IPAT identity, which specifies that environmental impacts are due to three key driving forces: population, affluence (per capita consumption or production) and technology (impact per unit of consumption or production) (York et al., 2003, p. 353). This identity, as shown in Equation 2.1, can be used to illustrate any environmental issue, such as the impact of a pollutant on forests, water, or atmosphere. Impact = Population * Affluence * Technology     (Equation 2.1) (Source: Nakicenovic et al., 2000) 19  Professor Yoichi Kaya of the University of Tokyo built factors relevant to GHG emissions on to the IPAT identity to develop one of the most frequently referenced formulas to predict future anthropogenic CO2 emissions (Equation 2.2). GHGtotal = POP * (GDP/POP) * (E /GDP) * (GHG/E) – CO2       (Equation 2.2) GHGtotal Total GHG released into atmosphere POP Population GDP Gross domestic product GHG E GHG released into the atmosphere Energy consumed CO2 CO2 sequestered (Source: Kaya, 1990 as cited by Raupach et al., 2007, p. 10289) If taken too literally as a quantitative assessment of CO2 emissions, Equation 2.2 could be criticised for being overly simplistic. When considered illustrative, however, it effectively shows the key influences that control global CO2 and other GHG emissions. Kaya’s formula captures the idea that increases in population, standards of living (GDP/POP), energy intensities (E/GDP , i.e. how much energy does it take to create wealth), and inefficient energy sources (CO2/E, i.e. how much CO2 is burned per unit of energy produced) will increase pollutants such as CO2. Likewise, reductions in these factors and increased CO2 sequestered reduce the amount of CO2 emitted. Population control and lowering standards of living is difficult and controversial and perhaps unacceptable. The solution likely lies in creating wealth with less energy, with more efficient energy sources, and using technologies and land protection to sequester CO2.  Several predictive GHG emissions scenarios exist for global, national, and provincial levels, each with their own input parameters based loosely on the IPAT and Kaya identities. For global emissions, the most commonly accepted model is by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007b). This model is based on a consensus of the predictions on future greenhouse gas levels through a review of existing scientific literature. The IPCC approach is 20  often criticised, primarily for their use of consensus ( Tol, 2007). Their results focus on the consequences of climate rather than emissions levels, and suggest that average global temperatures due to increased amount of GHG in the atmosphere will rise by 1.1 to 6.4 degrees Celsius, which may cause more frequent extreme weather and higher sea levels (IPCC, 2007a, p. 36). At the Canadian level, The National Round Table on the Environment and the Economy has developed a predictive model of future GHG emissions (NRTEE, 2009). Their model uses known influences, such as trends in the economy, population, and manufacturing, to predict that total Canadian emissions will reach 1,100 Mt GHG by 2050, or 235 Mt GHG above the Government of Canada’s target for that year (NRTEE, 2009, p.22) British Columbian provincial levels have been predicted by M. Jaccard, as published in the Climate Action Plan (see Government of B.C., 2008a). This model predicts up to the year 2020 which suggests province- wide emissions will be between 74.3 to 75.5 Mt GHG by that year (Government of B.C., 2008a, p. 106). These scenarios are considered when the scenarios presented in Chapter Four are developed. At the time of writing, there are no known predictive models for the mining industry of British Columbia. 2.6 Summary  This chapter summarises the three approaches used in this research; literature review, content analysis, and dynamic modelling. The review of GHG policies and technical options in emissions mitigation follows in Chapter Three. A description of the data used and the results of the content analysis and modelled scenarios are contained in Chapter Four, followed by a discussion of the research findings in Chapter Five.  21  3 GHG Policies and Management Options: A Review 3.1 Introduction  This chapter is an overview of themes and issues in greenhouse gas emissions. Focus is on relative concentrations of various greenhouse gases (GHG) from fossil fuel combustion and other sources and the tools developing to manage them. Current and proposed governmental policies GHG policies are described, with some suggestions as to their near future directions. The three key economic tools in GHG management are described; cap and trade, carbon offsets, and carbon tax. Technical options to reduce GHG emissions, including increasing efficiencies and carbon capture, are presented. 3.2 Climate Change, GHG Emissions, and Fossil Fuels This section reviews the current state and history of climate change science. Given that fossil fuels are considered the primary suspect for increased anthropogenic carbon dioxide levels, a significant section is dedicated to their expected future use. Various policies and proposed regulations are described with particular focus on those that have influence on mining firms in British Columbia. 3.2.1 Climate Change and Carbon Dioxide  To effectively assess the current situation it is necessary to look back at transpired events. This section does not seek to validate or deny current climate change science. Rather, it attempts to describe progress in this field and discuss factors that led to current efforts in minimising climate change. 22  All of the components of the earth, including the atmosphere and climate, are constantly changing. There are many well understood factors that influence climate on varying time scales, from the slow shift of magnetic poles to instantaneous volcanic eruptions, many of which are well documented in the geological record (for an excellent outline of this see Zachos et al., 2001). While it is true that the earth changes due to natural phenomena, sometimes dramatically with severe and harmful consequences to life, this does not excuse avoidable and sometimes reckless environmental degradation. It is well understood that some level of greenhouse gases are required to maintain temperatures on earth suitable for the life that exists on it. These gases regulate temperature by absorbing some of the sun’s infrared energy, thereby preventing the energy from escaping back into space (Ramanathan, 2009). While most agree about the science and mechanics of climate, there exists debate about the extent of climatic reaction to increased greenhouse gas emissions into earth’s system. The idea that anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, including CO2, cause changes in climate is not new. It first appeared in a published journal in 1896 by the Swedish chemist, Svante Arrhenius, who quantified the contribution of CO2 to the greenhouse effect and speculated variations in climate (Arrhenius, 1896). Starting in 1958, Charles Keeling initiated high-accuracy measurements of CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere (Keeling 1961, 1998). These measurements are often referred to as the master time series in documenting changes of atmospheric composition and are the basis of many climate studies (IPCC, 2007b, p. 100). 23  Table 3.1: Concentrations, Lifetimes, and Relative GWP of Various GHG   CO2 CH4 N2O CFC-11 HFC-23 CF4 Pre 1800 atmospheric concentrations ~280 ppm ~700 ppb ~270 ppb 0 0 40 ppt Concentrations as of 1998 365 ppm 1745 ppb 314 ppb 268 ppt 14 ppt 80 ppt Atmospheric lifetime 5-200 years 12 years 114 years 45 years 260 years >50,000 years (Sources: IPCC, 2007a, p. 38; and Sekiya et al., 2010, p. 366)  To quantitatively compare the effects various greenhouse gases they are often compared to the effect of CO2 has earth’s climate. Several types of formulations exist, including comparative radiative forcing (the difference between incoming and outgoing radiation energy) and Carbon Dioxide Equivalent Warming Number (CEWN), but the most common is the Global Warming Potential (GWP), developed for the Kyoto Protocol (Reilly et al., 1999). The GWP has been criticised by analysts such as Manne (2001) and Sekiya (2010) for its lack of consideration for variations and effects on temperature and disregard for changes of the gas over time. Despite these criticisms, the ubiquitous use and simplicity of GWP has made this metric the most commonly adopted tool for comparing the effects of various gases (Shine et al., 2005). Each greenhouse gas, natural and anthropogenic, an equivalent CO2, or carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) number is assigned. Thus, the CO2e for CO2 is one. Methane has twenty-one times the warming potential of CO2 therefore the CO2e for methane is twenty-one. Table 3.1 summarises the atmospheric concentrations of six common GHG’s, and their CO2e relative values. All GHG in this research are in CO2e values using the GWP metric unless explicitly stated otherwise. 24  Table 3.2: Concentrations, Lifetimes, and Relative GWP of Various GHG   CO2 CH4 N2O CFC-11 HFC-23 CF4 Atmospheric lifetime 5-200 years 12 years 114 years 45 years 260 years >50,000 years CO2e (GWP) 1 21 310 3,800 11,700 6,500 (Sources: IPCC, 2007a, p. 38; Sekiya et al., 2010, p. 366; and IPCC, 2007b, p. 48) According to the IPCC (2001a), 75% of the increase of CO2 observed in the atmosphere is due to the burning of fossil fuels (p. 185). The pre-industrial concentration of CO2 was 280 parts per million (ppm), in 2000 it reached 360 ppm (IPCC, 2001a, p. 38). While GHG’s such as CFC’s methane have more significant GWP, CO2 makes up approximately seventy percent (as of 2004) of anthropogenic emissions in CO2e terms (IPCC, 2007b, p. 36), as shown in Figure 3.1. Figure 3.1: Global Anthropogenic GHG Emissions  (Sources: IPCC, 2007b, p. 36; Raupach, 2007, p. 10288) From 1973 to 2007, the global CO2 emissions nearly doubled to over 28,900 Mt (IEA, 2009, p. 44). Most of the 2007 emissions are from the combustion of fossil fuels, with nearly thirty-eight percent from oil, forty-two percent from coal, and twenty percent from natural gas; the remaining one percent is from other sources such as municipal waste (IEA, 2009, p.45). It should be noted that minor differences exist between emissions statistics from Environment Canada, Canadian Industrial End-use Energy Data and Analysis Centre (CIEEDAC), and company reports are marginal. The causes of these differences are difficult to determine. In the 2010 CIEEDAC 25  report on Canadian industrial GHG emissions it was suggested that these discrepancies are likely due to sources falling under different categories between companies and which conversion factors are used to make different fuel types comparable (Nyboer, 2010, p. 4).  Anthropogenic or human-made GHG emissions from an individual, group, or operation are measured as either direct and indirect (Milito et al., 2008). Direct emissions are those that are owned by and are within the control of a given company. For most mining companies, such as Teck Resources Ltd., these are emissions associated with explosives and fossil fuel combustion for energy (Teck Resources, 2008a). Indirect emissions are those that are associated with a service or product by an external company, such as transport of products to the mine. It is not always clear as to who is ultimately accountable for indirect emissions. It may be the purveyor of supplies or services, who controls the emissions from their product; or perhaps the responsibility should be with the user, who creates demand and controls how much they consume. Proposed legislations, such as those from the Government of British Columbia, focus only on direct emissions (Government of B.C., 2008a). The emissions described in this research focus on direct emissions because these are more directly in control of managers and operators of a mine. Unless it is explicitly stated otherwise, the emissions reported herein are direct. 3.2.2 The Future of Fossil Fuels  Industrial economies have developed within a complex dependency on fossil fuel-based systems; the energy and products from fossil fuels influence all facets of society, industry, and economy (Unruh et al., 2006). This condition was first described by Unruh (2000) as ‘carbon lock-in’. The continued dependency on fossil fuels is perpetuated though social, technological, and institutional forces, despite known environmental consequences and costs (Unruh, 2000). The International Energy Agency (2003) predicts that the majority of future energy demand will 26  occur in developing countries; countries such as China and India are expected to expand infrastructure for many decades to come (IEA, 2003). Unruh and Carrillo-Hermosill (2006) showed that expansion will rely on multinational corporations based in more developed regions for technological, financial, and policy support, all of which co-evolved with carbon dependency. The demand for fossil fuels is thus entrenched in the global economy.  Alarm bells ringing the end of oil have been rung several times throughout the history of fossil fuel use.  The first public announcement of the end of oil was in 1875 by John S. Newberry of the Ohio State Geological Survey (Adelman, 2004, p.16). In 1956, Hubbert presented what is probably the most famous prediction of the end of oil to the American Petroleum Institute., the so call Hubbert’s curve. Hubbert (1956) produced a normal distribution graph centred on the year 2000, his prediction for the year the global production rates would stop increasing and start decreasing (i.e. peak oil), based on global production rates (p. 32). Both mocked and celebrated throughout literature, it seems often over-looked that the central theme of this famous document is the potential for nuclear power in the future. Hubbert’s oil prediction was used to set the tone for the future changes in energy sources. In the 1970’s, the oil crisis spurred new predictions that the end of oil was near. The 1973 chief policymaker on oil, J. Akins confidently affirmed that the oil crisis had begun and, “the current energy problem will not be a long one; ...by the end of the century oil will probably lose its predominance as a fuel” (Akins, 1973, p. 490). These predictions have been proven false, but new predictions have always appeared to replace them (Bardi, 2009). The timing of peak oil remains uncertain. Many analysts convincingly show that many future generations will continue to depend on fossil fuels (Bently, 2002; IEA, 2003; Shafiee et al., 2009). 27  As of 2001, estimates of global conventional1 oil reserves2 in the range of 6,000 EJ or 150 gigatonnes, and 12,000 EJ in resources (Jaccard, 2005, p. 149). Reserves and resources of unconventional3 oil, as of 2001, are estimated to be 5,000 EJ, and 20,000 EJ respectively (UNDP, 2004, p. 28). Oil is not, of course, the only fossil fuel. Natural gas, which is made up primarily of methane, is often touted as the cleaner option because it can achieve higher energy efficiencies while releasing relatively fewer GHG emissions than coal or oil (most estimates are approximate thirty percent less than oil and forty-five percent less than coal (NRC, 1995; Johnson et al, 2004). Conventional4 natural gas reserves and resources, as of 2000, are 5,500 EJ and 16,500 EJ respectively. Coal is considered the dirtiest of the fossil fuel options because of its relatively high levels greenhouse gases and other pollutants such as sulphur (Goodell, 2006). The three types of coal, anthracite, bituminous, and lignite, categorised by their hardness, carbon content, and heating value, are expected to make up a growing share of the energy source globally. Global estimates of reserves are approximately 21,000 EJ, with another 200,000 EJ, eighty percent of which is high-ranked (anthracite and bituminous) coal (Jaccard, 2005, p. 148). In his book, Sustainable Fossil Fuels, Jaccard (2005, p. 148-150) puts forward a predicative model of fossil fuel use that suggests the world will have enough oil reserves until 2075, and enough resources until 2210. He goes on to show that even if coal provided forty- seven percent of the world’s energy by 2015, with an annual growth rate of half a percent after that, there will be enough coal to last for more than four-hundred years.  1  Conventional oil sources are deposits of crude oil which can be recovered without significant alteration to its viscosity. 2  A reserve is a subset of a resource. A reserve can be feasibly extracted financially and technically in current terms. 3  Unconventional oil sources require advanced technologies that change the viscosity of the oil within the deposit. These changes are required because of too high or too low pressures, extreme depths, or contaminants such as sand (e.g. tar sands, deep off-shore drilling). 4  Conventional natural gas deposits are those which are contained in sedimentary rocks with an overlying sealing or cap rocks. It is generally highly pressurized and often associated with oil. 28   It seems the consensus within the literature amongst most geoscientists and analysts is that while fossil fuels can not last forever, many more generations will very likely depend on it for energy. Peak oil is certainly real, but the economic, political, and technological parameters ever shift the timing of when it may occur. Despite the fact that a future without fossil fuels may be ideal, particularly from an environmental standpoint, the complete eradication of its use is highly unlikely. Strategies that will be effective in preparing for the future must include scenarios where fossil fuels remain the primary source of energy. 3.3 GHG Emissions in Mining and Canada According to the Mining Association of Canada (MAC) in their 2008 Facts and Figures report (2009), the metal mining industry was responsible for approximately 10 Mt of GHG emissions in 2005, 4.5 Mt from mining activities and 5.5 Mt from smelting and refining (p. 43). This data, along with energy use data (in PJ or Petajoules), is summarised in Table 3.2. For the energy use listed, the number includes energy from electricity (not stated how the electricity is produced), natural gas, heavy fuel oil, middle distillates, and coal coke. In both mining and smelting, electricity makes up nearly half of all energy use. In smelting and refining, natural gas is a close second. By 2005, heavy fuel oil and coal is virtually not used in smelting and refining, although it is still used in very small quantities in mining. 29  Table 3.3: GHG Direct and Indirect Emissions in Canada from Metal Mining  1990 2000 2005 Total Canadian Economy Energy use (PJ) 9,608  11,362 11,848 GHG emissions (Mt)5 599  725 747 Total Canadian Industry Energy use (PJ) 2400  2724 2765 GHG emissions (Mt)1 142  161 164 Metal Mining Energy use (PJ)2 102   81 82 GHG emissions (Mt)1 5.8 4.4 4.5 Metal Smelting and Refining Energy use (PJ)2 77 86 73 GHG emissions (Mt)1 7.4 6.7 5.5 (Source: CIEEDAC, 2009, as cited by MAC, 2009, p. 43) The GHG emissions from metal mining make up a relatively small proportion but still significant (six percent) of the total emissions by industry.  When oil and gas extraction and production is included under the umbrella of mining, as shown in Figure 3.3, these activities make up a total of twenty-one percent of the total emissions for industry in Canada (Environment Canada, 2008, p. 41). Canada’s total emissions as stated in the National Inventory Report (NIR) (Canada’s emissions report to the UN), was a total of 734 Mt (Environment Canada, 2008, p. 19). Figure 3.2: Relative GHG Emissions by Industry in Canada  (Source: Environment Canada, 2008, p. 41)  5  Includes both direct and indirect GHG emissions 30   Certain emissions indicators for Canada have actually improved over the last ten years. For example, Canada has improved its emissions per dollar of GDP, decreasing by more than two percent each year from 1997 to 2008 (Environment Canada, 2010, p. 3). There have significant gains in energy efficiency over this time due to technical advancements (NRC, 2009); however the primary cause of weakening the link between GDP growth and emissions is the changing of the economy. From 2000 to 2008, the GDP of Canada’s service industries grew 28%, while heavy industries and manufacturing together grew only three percent (Environment Canada, 2010, p. 3). To put these numbers into perspective, consider that Canada committed to have emissions six 6% below 1990 GHG levels by 2012 (Environment Canada, 2008, p. 19). Canada needs to cut its emissions by 31.5% from current levels to reach its Kyoto target. To illustrate how difficult this may be to achieve, consider that if of the all extractive industries cut their emissions in half, Canada would still be a staggering 28% above its target. Several analysts such as Lohmann (2008) have suggested that such targets are nearly impossible to meet and could be economically disastrous to economies.  The issue is more localised than this global perspective. Many policy analysts suggest that future reductions will cut emissions to as much as one-third of their current levels (NRTEE, 2009, p. 44). If this is indeed the goal of future governments it will require reductions from all sectors. By preparing for such cuts now, future costs and lead-up times are more likely to be reduced (Stern, 2006; Krey 2009; Bowen, 2009). GHG emissions will become an ever increasing important component of environmental stewardship, and the progress made in reducing emissions, as reported on company websites and annual reports (Teck Resources, 2009; Rio Tinto 2008), will play more significant roles. The challenge is finding ways to meet these reductions in ways that are both effective and feasible. 31  3.4 Current GHG Emissions Policies  This research seeks to review and understand the current and developing polices on GHG emissions that may affect the mining industry of British Columbia. Dozens of international, federal, and provincial organisations with varying authority and influence exist and have direct implications for economic activity in British Columbia. The most difficult aspect throughout the development of this research was the ever changing, overlapping, and often ambiguous policies developing from international, federal, and provincial governments and organisations. Rising concerns about changes to climate due to increased CO2 and other GHG emissions led to the development of the first legislative work, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC). This convention first met in 1992 and the treaty that developed came into force in March, 1994 (United Nations, 1992). The treaty sought to share and gather information on emissions, policies, and practices; launch regional strategies for adapting to expected impacts of climate change; and provide financial and technical support to developing nations through the newly created IPCC (United Nations, 2010). The Kyoto protocol that followed, developed and adopted by most industrial countries, came into force in 1997. Unlike the UNFCC, which merely encouraged and nations to cut emissions, the Kyoto protocol is legally binding to the countries that adopt it (United Nations, 1998). Since this time, several inter-regional organisations have come into being, such as the Western Climate Initiative, International Carbon Action Partnership, The Climate Group, The Climate Registry, and the Carbon Disclosure Project. Each of these organisations has varying amounts of jurisdiction and influence. These groups are summarised in Table 3.2, with their goals, methods, and targets.  32  Several international groups (World Health Organization and International Institute for Sustainable Development) were not included in this table either because their influence in British Columbia is small or their influence is directed to British Columbia through another organisation, such as the IPCC.   33  Table 3.4: Intergovernmental Carbon Policy Groups Relevant to British Columbia Continued on next page Name Description, Methods and Goals Members and Jurisdiction Key Achievements and Targets Author’s Comments Western Climate Initiative (WCI) - Creates, evaluates, and implements climate change policies since 2007. - Goal: Reduce GHG’s, increase renewable energy sources, and reduce fossil fuel dependency. - Methods: Promotes cap and trade, sets emissions limits, and creates offset credits for trading. Develop policies to promote efficient, renewable, and low- carbon energy sources. Governments of 8 Canadian provinces, 12 US states, and 6 Mexican provinces participate. Policies are adopted at provincial level. -  Detailed cap and trade design (next release summer 2010). -  Developing protocols and setting emissions budgets. -  Successful and ongoing intergovernmental collaboration. Little criticism of the WCI exists. Successful at industry engagement and obtaining feedback from parties potentially affected. WCI is the likely leader in a future carbon economy in North America. International Carbon Action Partnership (ICAP) - A partnership of regions for forums on carbon markets since 2007. - Goal: Share knowledge, strengthen partnerships, and ensure compatibility of policies across borders. - Methods: Members meet twice a year for an open forum to discuss how to develop carbon markets. Enable discussion between developed regions. Twenty nine members, all from developed areas. BC is associated through WCI. Has no authority, but shapes policies. -  Release succinct discussion papers after each meeting -  Have identified three principles for good practice in a carbon market: accurate monitoring, clear rules, and comparability between offsets. Is fairly successful in releasing meaningful documents for policy makers. Should consider industry feedback. Its core goal of compatibility across various offset programs is an essential step in a carbon economy. The Climate Group - International, independent, not- for profit group who set targets and policies since 2004. - Goal: Shape the global economy into a low-carbon, prosperous future. - Methods: Gather, discuss, support projects, and release documents A coalition of governments and multinational companies from the EU, N.A., AUS, and Asia. - Created real-time GHG emission rates in Australia and first voluntary global offset standard. - Release free reports on carbon and economies. The online tools are innovative and useful, but do not appear to be widely used. Excellent ground-laying for an international registry. The Climate Registry - Not-for-profit organisation that provides information, sets standards, and maintains a GHG reporting registry. - Goal: Set standards to calculate, verify, and report GHG emissions into a single registry. - Methods: Support voluntary and mandatory GHG reporting, provide information, and ensure consistency. Members represent forty U.S. states, twelve Canadian provinces and territories, and four Native Sovereign Nations. - Created and maintains a registry for GHG reporting, all of which is available to the public on their website. Currently has 98 entities participating. Similar to the Climate Group, this registry is an excellent ground- laying tool for a North American GHG registry. 34  Table 3.3:  Intergovernmental Carbon Policy Groups Relevant to B.C. continued (Sources: B.C. Government, 2008c; WCI, 2010, p. 2-4; ICAP, 2009, p. 1-2; The Climate Registry, 2009, p. 1-2, and 2010;  CDP, 2010; IPCC, 2010; IAC, 2010)  The key Canadian federal legislations that have direct implications for companies operating in British Columbia are the 2008 Conservative Government’s climate change plan, ‘Turning the Corner’, and the joint United Nations and Government of Canada’s National Inventory Report. These are summarised in Table 3.4, with jurisdictions, goals, and comments from the researcher.  Name Description, Methods and Goals Members and Jurisdiction Key Achievements and Targets Author’s Comments Carbon Disclosure Project (CDP) -  International, independent, not- for profit group holding largest global GHG database, since 2000. - Goal: Provide information to business, investor, and government leaders to accelerate GHG solutions. - Methods:  Requests and publishes GHG emission stats from top m 2,500 from 60 countries participate. Sponsored by governments and multinational companies. - Hold world’s largest database of climates change and GHG emissions data. Over 2450 companies responded in 2009. Excellent survey questions. Discusses risks and opportunities as well as raw data. Reports are a little unclear, but standard. Business approach is very effective. Inter- governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP) - An international group of scientists, analysts, economists, and policy makers. It guides policies and provides frameworks for voluntary policy adoption by national governments. Founded in 1989. - Goal: Provide rigorous and balanced scientific information to decision makers. - Methods: Create working groups with experts to publish reports that guide (not prescribe) policy. All existing data is compiled, and the most common results are highlighted. Open to all members of the UN and of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). - The first assessment, (1990), led to the creation of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC) that led to the Kyoto accord. - Its fourth assessment, Climate Change 2007, won the Nobel Peace Prize - Published dozens of technical reports. IPCC faces criticism over methods and some content. While their “hockey-stick” graph and use of consensus is easily criticised, the IPCC is the only all- encompassing work on climate change to date.  The IPCC is currently under external review. A report by IAC (2010) is expected in late 2010. 35  Table 3.5: Key Canadian Federal Climate and Carbon Frameworks Name Description, Methods, and Goals Members and Jurisdiction Key Achievements and Targets Author’s Comments Turning the Corner The 2008 federal government’s plan in addressing climate change. - Goal: Regulate emissions, enhance efficiency, increase renewable energy use, and promote technology development. - Method: Dedicated 28.5 million over 3 years (2008- 2011). Supports programs (e.g. Air Care), encourages clean technologies, and enables regional environmental management plans. Federal government - Success in several projects that the federal government has supported: Net Zero Energy Housing, effective climate change monitoring in the north, and creation of an offset system. - In 2008, Canada was 24.1% above 1990 GHG levels (Environment Canada, 2008) Its primary goal, based on the number of times it is mentioned, seems to be to stay in-line with the goals of the US. While the two economies are strongly integrated, highlighting this as the government’s focus does little to inspire Canadians. Clearly outlines financial commitments to projects such as CCS, and spells out alliances with international organisations (e.g. World Bank). Avoids making any binding promises. National Inventory Report The submission by Canada to the UNFCC - Goal: Improve Canada’s ability to monitor, report, and verify GHG emissions. - Method: Create a national mandatory GHG reporting system. Federal government, reporting to UN, with support from provinces and industry. - Published a report of all sinks and sources in Canada from 1998- 2008.  The initiative and report is thorough and a necessary step in effectively reducing GHG emissions. The report does not sugar-coat, and clearly shows that Canada leads in GHG emissions growth since 1990 amongst G8 countries.  (Sources: Government of Canada, 2008; and Environment Canada, 2008)  The third and final summarising table reviews the key GHG organisations, plans, and working groups on the provincial level of British Columbia, as shown in Table 3.5. These key organisations and frameworks include the provincial Climate Action Secretariat; four legislations and plans from the Government of British Columbia, the Climate Action Plan, Carbon Tax, Air Plan, and Energy Plan; a provincially owned carbon trading company, the Pacific Carbon Trusts; and a foundation for financially supporting research, the Pacific Institute for Climate Solutions. 36  Table 3.6: Key Provincial (BC) Organisations, Plans, and Working Groups Name Description, Methods and Goals Members and Jurisdiction Key Achievements and Targets Author’s Comments Climate Action Secretariat (CAS) - A division of the B.C. Ministry of Environment. It coordinates climate action across governments and stakeholders. - Goal: Achieve B.C.’s GHG emission reduction targets and prepare for the impacts of climate change. - Method: Supports research and coordinates various working groups under the climate change umbrella of the B.C. Provincial Government. CAS is led and supported by the Minister of State for Climate Action. Works with all levels of governments, international organisations, and industry. - Released The Climate Action Plan in 2008. - Compiled and made publicly available >500 records in regard to climate change. - Created and supported dozens of policies  Has had great success with its initiatives and in supporting its partnerships. While expectably bureaucratic, it deserves the recognition it has received as a leader in climate change mitigation policies. Climate Action Plan - B.C. Government’s timeline and roadmap to a low-carbon economy. - Goal: Meet the set legislated reduction in GHG emissions to 33% below 2007 levels by 2020, stimulate low-carbon economic development, and support green communities. - Method: Develop legislation, support projects, and dedicate governmental funds to initiatives. Affects all sectors of the economy. Drives the policy development and action plans. - Set clear timelines and goals. Described clearly how targets will be achieved and supported the development of related acts. Well organised and clear. Geared towards public, and thus is a little too high-level. The implications for other acts and plans, however, appear effective. BC Carbon Tax - A revenue neutral provincial tax on all fossil fuels used based on the fuel’s CO2e emissions, effective 2009. - Goal: Reduce fuel use by taxing it while providing other tax breaks. - Method: A $15/t CO2e tax is paid by anyone, who purchases, transfers, brings in, and/or uses fuel in British Columbia. The tax increases $5 each year until 2012 (after which has not yet been announced). Taxes are returned to tax payers through other tax reductions. The Provincial Government of British Columbia. Affects all companies and individuals in British Columbia. - Successfully implemented the tax on July 2009. - Not yet known what impact it has had on fossil fuel use or emissions. This tax makes a lot of sense. It penalises the use of fossil fuels while making it revenue neutral through other tax breaks. Taxes seem more effective in cutting GHG’s than cap and trade, but politically difficult. BC Air Action Plan - A B.C. Government plan developed with industries and communities to promote clean air and environments. - Goal: Improve all transportation options through tax-breaks, reduce all emissions, advance renewable energy, and promote clean-air. - Method: Dedicated $28.5 million over 3 years (2008-2011). Supports programs (e.g. Air Care), encourages technologies, and enables regional plans. Industry leaders, governments, and public services. - Focus is on transportation, big industry, and communities - Unclear what has been achieved to date.  This action plan is a little ambiguous. It is good to remain open and flexible when creating these plans before enacting legislation, but this seems like another of a long list of BC government plans that have unclear direction. Continued on next page 37  Table 3.5: Key Provincial (BC) Organisations, Plans, and Working Groups continued Name Description Members and Jurisdiction Key Achievements and Targets Author’s Comments BC Energy Plan - A B.C. Government plan developed in partnership between industry, communities, and all levels governments to promote clean air and healthy environments. - Goal: Make B.C.’s economy a leader financially and environmentally. - Method: Promote renewable energy (except nuclear), best practices, public ownership, and invest in projects. Put together policies that describe effected aspects in energy production, labour, and throughout the oil and gas sector. BC Provincial government, in particular the Ministry of Energy, Mines, and Petroleum Resources - Established clear policy actions for conservation, efficiency, alternative energy, and skills training. - Set clear goals for best practices in oil and gas Set clear timelines for their goals.  This plan is very well organised, clear, and industry focused. The goals, particularly those for oil and gas seem effective and attainable. Pacific Carbon Trust (PCT) - A B.C. crown corporation that buys and sells offsets since 2008. - Goal: Put a price on carbon, helping to financially support clean technologies. - Method: Buy offsets from parties that have complied with ISO 14054 offset standard. Established by the BC government, it is made up of a board of governors and is directly tied and guided by the provincial government. - Sells internationally recognised offsets - Created an in- house market for BC firms looking to qualify their initiatives to sell as offsets. There are obvious pros and cons to the PCT being a crown corporation. Transparency and political favouritism being the most troubling. They are verified by a third party. Offsets should be a last resort, but this seems like a necessary program. Pacific Institute for Climate Solutions (PICS) - A collaboration of research centres from SFU, UBC, UNBC, and U.Vic., since 2008. - Goal: Understand climate change its effects, assess mitigation and adaptation options, develop policy, educate, and communicate issues to governments, industry, and the public. - Method: The B.C. government gave PICS $4.5 million start up money and a $90 million endowment, which will generate $4 million annually to support research.  Hosted and led by the University of Victoria. Has members from the four largest universities in B.C. - Has supported 29 masters, PhD, and post-doctoral research through scholarships - Regularly releases information documents, and puts out a weekly summary of major climate-change related science. This is an excellent source of information and provide much- needed funding for research. (Sources: Climate Action Secretariat of British Columbia, 2010; Government of B.C., 2008a, p. 6-7; B.C. Ministry of Finance, 2010, p. 1-9; Government of B.C., 2008b, p. 11-20; Government of B.C., 2008c, p. 2-3; PCT, 2010; PICS, 2010)   There are several municipal groups that are relevant to communities in BC, focusing primarily on residential and personal transportation emissions: BC Climate Exchange, BC Climate Action Tool Kit, Community Energy Association, Green Drinks Canada, Hub for Action on School Transportation Emissions, One Day Vancouver, and The Sustainable Region 38  (Government of B. C., 2008a). These were not summarised herein because they have no relevance to the mining industry.  Despite how extensive these policies are, or aggressive their approach is, history has shown that achieving the set targets is not easy. As Simpson et al. (2007) noted in their book on Canada’s climate change challenges, Hot Air, every prediction and target of GHG levels set by the Canadian Federal Government and their organisations have been exceeded by actual emissions (p. 166). As noted, the Kyoto agreement signed by Canada stated that between 2008 and 2012 emissions will be 6% below 1990 levels (which were 592 Mt CO2e). By 2008, Canada emitted 734 Mt CO2e, 24.1% above 1990 levels, or 31.5% above the Kyoto commitment (Environment Canada, 2008, p. 19). It is clear that our approach must be ever more aggressive, our understanding of the factors ever more clear, and our commitment to reductions ever stronger. Mining is a pillar in the economy of Canada (MAC, 2009); if Canada is to meet its targets the industry must be an active participant in finding appropriate mitigation technologies and implementing economic tools for GHG reduction. 3.5 Economic Tools  There are three types of economic tools for GHG management, each with varying acceptance and use. All three of the mechanisms work by putting a price on carbon and assume that carbon emissions will be set at a certain level. The price of carbon is priced anywhere from approximately fifteen Canadian dollars per tonne of CO2e (Stern, 2006) to an estimated future price of two hundred Canadian dollars (NRTEE, 2009). Carbon offsets and cap and trade are closely related and interdependent, as discussed in the next section.  39  Understanding these tools is important for mining firms in that they may be required to use them in their own GHG management. Indeed, mining firms are already paying a carbon tax to the BC Government of $15/t CO2e since 2009 with a $5 increase each year until 2011, as discussed in later in this section (BC Ministry of Finance, 2010).  The following is a brief overview of what these tools are and how they are designed to work. 3.5.1 Cap and Trade Cap and trade works by setting a limit or cap on emissions and then creating a system by which groups or firms who cannot meet their limit can buy credits from firms that came below their limt (Bird, 2008). It relies on the concept of offsets, which are explained and discussed in the next section. Sometimes referred to as the emissions trading scheme, it is based on the U.S. Acid Rain Program that controlled sulphur dioxide and nitrous oxide emissions (Environment Canada, 2006). The capping of emissions ensures emissions targets are met, while the trading of emissions credits ensures that the cuts are made at the lowest costs since those groups that cannot afford to cut any further emissions can buy credits from groups that can cut emissions more easily, at lower costs (Labatt et al., 2007, p. 10). If such a framework is developed, mining firms may become both purchasers and providers of these carbon offsets, as described in the following section. 3.5.2 Carbon Offsets Carbon offsets are credits, sold in tonnes of CO2e, which individuals, firms, regions, or companies can buy to reduce their own emissions. They physical emissions by the perchaser of offsets do not change, but the total emissions in terms of GHG accounting are reduced. Offsets make sense on a macroeconomic scale because they theoretically cause the same amount of emissions reductions, but the cuts are made with projects where reductions are least expensive 40  (Tucker, 2001). Theoretically, this will allow regions to make reductions in net GHG emissions without harming the economy. For example, consider a firm that is legislated to reduce its emissions needs to cut its emissions. As with any well run business, it will find the least expensive yet effective methods to achieve this. That is, if the firm can cut the emissions through behaviour changes or technology adoption for a cost that is less than the price of an offset, they will cut the emissions themselves; if the cost is greater than the price of an offset, they will buy the offset. Offsets can allow projects to stay below the set emissions levels, while remaining economically feasible if they are less expensive than other emissions reductions options. Theoretically, the same amount of CO2e is avoided, but at a minimum cost. There are several Canadian companies currently trading carbon offsets, as summarised in Table 3.6. There is no requirement to pay for carbon to date, thus these companies sell offsets to firms and individuals who are voluntarily buying offsets to reduce their own net emissions. Carbon offsets are criticised by some analysts such as Lovell et al. (2009) and Rousse (2008) because they do not force operations with significant emissions to make reductions; in a sense they serve as a tool to buy a way to avoid compliance. Others criticise the nature of the current carbon offset market which is difficult to differentiate between legitimate and credible offset companies (Murray et al., 2009). The creation of the Pacific Carbon Trust by the Government of B.C. is designed to minimise this second concern (PCT, 2010). The literature, however, is dominated by praise for carbon offsets. Not only do offsets allow firms to cut emissions at economically feasible costs, they also fund projects that are otherwise not possible  41  that are positive for communities and long-term environmental health (Olsen et al., 2008). This is particularly encouraging for developing regions. Supporting the world’s struggling regions through the purchase of carbon offsets was the idea behind the Clean Development Mechanism, created with the Kyoto protocol in 1998 (United Nations, 1998, p. 12-15; UNEP, 2009). 42  Table 3.7: A Short List of CO2e Offset Selling Companies based in Canada Name Location Projects $CAN /tonne CO2e Date of information Website (and sources) Carbon Friendly Vancouver  Biomass in BC  Forestation in Poland and Ontario $12.50  Jun-10 www.carbonfriendly.com CarbonZero Toronto  Wind power in Alberta  Fuel efficiency in Ontario $22.00  Jun-10 www.carbonzero.ca Cleanairpass  Toronto   Industrial methane capture in Quebec  Methane from biomass in Washington  Forestation in BC  Material substitution in Quebec $17.00 Jan-10 www.cleanairpass.com Coolaction  Toronto  Geothermal in Italy  Hydro in Ontario and Newfoundland  Industrial methane capture in Quebec   Methane from biomass in Quebec $12.00 Feb-09 www.coolaction.com Less  Toronto  Methane from biomass in India $47.25 Jun-10 www.less.ca LivClean  Mississauga  Industrial methane capture in Illinois and Germany  Heat-electricity co-generation in India  Wind power in China CA $20.00  Jun-09 www.livclean.ca Offsetters  Vancouver  Fuel switching in BC and Brasil  Renewable energy sources for buildings in BC  Biogas in India and Thailand  Wind power in Turkey and New Zealand  Efficient stoves in Uganda  Hydro in China $25 Jun-10 www.offsetters.ca Pacific Carbon Trust Victoria  Energy efficiency in BC  fuel switching in BC  Hybrid heating system in BC $25 Jun-10 www.pacificcarbontrust.com Planetair  Montreal   Biomass methane in India  Wind power in Madagascar New Zealand and Turkey  Fuel substitution in Brasil and South Africa  Hydro plant in Indonesia  Fuel efficient (stoves) in Madagascar $40.20  May-09 http://planetair.ca ZEROCO2  Montreal  Methane from biomass in Brasil - hydro project in Brasil - Wind power in Turkey $20.00  Mar-10 www.zeroco2.com 43   Mining firms will likely be both providers and purchasers of offsets. For example, the Pacific Carbon Trust recently announced a proposal for sponsoring coal dryers at coal mines that lowers the weight of the coal by removing some of the moisture, reducing energy required to transport it and increasing the energy intensity of the coal (PCT, 2010). Firms and individuals can sponsor these coal drying projects by purchasing an offset from the trust. Such a purchase can be used against their own GHG levels, reducing net emissions. This is not a physical reduction, but rather an accounting reduction. The physical reductions are made at the sponsored project, but the reductions are only counted in by the offset purchaser. Mining companies that prepare effectively can be on the development side of these offsets, such as the coal drying example, if they prepare and plan effectively. Firms that do not prepare will likely be the purchaser of such programs. 3.5.3 Carbon Tax A carbon tax works by charging a dollar amount for every tonne of CO2e emitted by a fuel at the time of the fuel purchase. British Columbia is an excellent example of successfully implementing a carbon tax. It works by charging any individual or firm $15 per tonne CO2e that is estimated to be emitted during combustion for the particular type of fuel starting in 2010. The program is revenue neutral by giving breaks on other taxes; the program is set at $15 per tonne CO2e, and will go up $5 each year until 2012, after which has not yet been announced (BC Ministry of Finance, 2010). This tax is applied to anyone who purchases, transfers, brings in, and/or uses fuels in British Columbia, including mining operations. Although there is no evidence that this tax has been considered in any of the thirty-seven annual reports reviewed for the content analysis in this research, the mining industry must now include these additional costs in their budgets and economic planning. 44  3.6 Technical Options in GHG Management This section discusses the options that are commonly outlined in carbon management plans. The state of development, costs, benefits, risks, and projected future roles of various technologies and options in carbon management are discussed. It will be shown that there is no single solution; a mix of initiatives is required to meet emission reduction targets. 3.6.1 Energy Efficiency Energy efficiency is generally the first approach when trying to limit emissions through the reduction of energy consumption. The idea, based on the first and second laws of thermodynamics, is to close the gap between the amount of energy input and energy output. Significant advances have been made in energy efficiencies have been achieved, particularly in the past forty years since the oil crisis of the 1970s (Schipper, et al., 1994, p. 129). Despite these advances, there are still significant gains to be made in energy efficiencies. In fact, as of the year 2000, the global energy efficiency of converting useful energy from primary energy is only 37 percent (Jochem, 2000, p. 3). This useful energy is then used to heat our homes, light our streets, and turn our mills, further widening the gap between energy in to energy out to an estimated low average of 15 percent (Jaccard, 2005, p. 81). It is obvious that there are many gains to be made in energy efficiency, and one might draw the conclusion that this is the answer to all energy and GHG emissions issues. If it was within reach, however, firms would have already acted. Using less fuel would mean lower fuel costs which is a key incentive to improve energy efficiency. Unfortunately, efficiency rates over time involve highly complex and overlapping driving forces (Oikonomou et al. 2009).  Thus, despite the seemingly easily attained benefits such as reduced fuel consumption, technologies do not reach predicted efficiency rates. Reductions in emissions 45  through increased energy efficiencies are expected to make up only a small part of the solution (NRTEE, 2009). Nonetheless, it is an excellent starting point for mining firms because it has the added bonus of potentially reducing fuel costs. 3.6.2 Land Management Appropriate land management is an integral part in the overall environmental health of the planet and plays a significant role in net GHG emissions. Land uses include cropland, wetlands, settlements, and forestry. It is difficult to calculate the total CO2 absorbed by an ecosystem, and even more difficult to estimate how permanent the storage of the carbon might be (Marland et al., 2001). Ecosystems such as forests and wetlands, remove CO2 passively through photosynthesis, releasing oxygen and storing carbon in roots, organisms, soils, and plant material (Nair et al., p. 11). As shown in Table 3.7, land use changes contribute significantly to the total GHG emissions, both as sources and removal of CO2 gases. In this table, positive values indicate that the land use changes caused more GHG emissions than they absorbed; negative values indicate more GHG emissions were absorbed than emitted. Changes in forestry dominate the changes in net GHG emissions, dramatically changing from year to year due to that year’s activities. In 2007 forestry contributed thirty-eight Mt of CO2e, in 2008 it reduced emissions by - 18 Mt of CO2e (Environment Canada, 2010, p. 25), nearly two percent of the 2008 total national GHG emissions. Table 3.8: Canadian GHG Emissions Associated with Land Use 1990 1995 2000 2005 2008 -52 Mt CO2e +200 Mt CO2e -80 Mt CO2e +41 Mt CO2e -13 Mt CO2e (Source: Environment Canada, 2010, p.25)  46  The mining industry can play a significant role in protecting land during mining, and can promote ecosystems effective in absorbing CO2 after the closure of a mine. Land that was used during the operation of a mine (e.g. roads, buildings, tailings, pits) can be reclaimed by removing or relocating buildings, closing puts and shafts, treating waste, stabilizing workings and slopes, and creating land forms conducive to a healthy ecosystem for the region the mine is located (MacLeod, 2004, p. 3). Strategic planning could lead to effective land management, causing reductions in total GHG emissions associated with a mining operation. After a mine is closed, the maintenance and protection of this land could potentially lead to an accredited offset through a carbon offset brokerage team such as Carbon Pacific Trust (PCT, 2010). This could improve the economics of a mine. 3.6.3 Fuel Switching and Alternative Energy Sources The term alternative energy source generally refers to any non-fossil fuel source. Many alternatives exist at various stages of maturity. Solar, wind, tidal, hydro, geothermal, nuclear, and hydrogen are all briefly discussed in this section. Solar, wind, and tidal energies are considered renewable energy sources because the source of the energy is not extracted from the earth. Materials used to build these technologies are, however, products of mining and require rare and sometimes rare and highly toxic materials (Gagnon et al, 2002, p. 1272). Steel, batteries, and in the case of solar power the photovoltaic cells, all require intense processing. Even when this fact is disregarded, the potential for these renewable energies is minimal. The power is intermittent, dictated by the uncontrollable factors of cloud cover, wind speed, and tidal variations, creating the need for extensive energy storage 47  systems (Lamont, 2008). Reliable energy is a requirement of an advance society, and thus a back-up energy sources such as traditional fossil-fuel sources are required ( Swift-Hook, 2010). Due to these factors, renewable energy is highly unlikely to take on any significant role in regional energy supply. Their best potential role is in small-scale localized energy (Haas et al., 2004). Large hydrogen power plants do exist, but even this power source may work better on small scales (Kato et al., 2003). Small scale renewable energy sources could possibly support a mining operation in offices, but because they are intermittent they are not reliable enough to take on the more significant energy drains at an operation such as haul trucks or mills. The following section explores some of the most common renewable energy sources and compares their relative benefits and drawbacks. 3.6.3.1 Hydropower  Hydropower has had great success in supplying energy and is estimated to make up 20% of the world’s consumed energy (Jaccard, 2005, p. 113). This power source is reliable and can have additional benefits to communities such as flood control, recreational lakes, and irrigation. British Columbia uses hydropower extensively (Government of B.C., 2008), and thus any mining operation that is on the grid uses hydropower. In fact, hydropower currently makes up 790 megawatts of electricity annually, most of which is generated at the Kenney Dam for the Rio Tinto Alcan aluminum smelter in Kitimat, British Columbia (Rio Tinto, 2010) and the Waneta Dam that powers the lead and zinc smelter in Trail, British Columbia (Teck, 2006) . Interestingly, many mining operations share many of the issues is hydropower projects as discussed in this section, such as remote locations, high up-front capital costs, and dam structures. This perhaps makes mining uniquely adept at developing more hydropower. 48   There are many small run-of-river projects proposed in the province. This technology works by directing a small amount of water away from the natural route and turns a turbine before returning to its natural route (Anagnostopoulos, 2007). This method is criticized for interfering with natural water paths and the technology’s future remains uncertain (Rojanamon, 2009). Such run-of-river projects, if proven feasible and environmentally safe, would be ideal for small mining operations that are in geographically favourable locations. Hydropower projects typically involve high up front capital, maintenance of long transmission lines to the often remote sites, flooding and landslide risks due to dam failures, and effects on ecosystems due to changes in the natural flow and pathways of water (Charoenngam, 1999). There is also increasing concern about the release of methane from hydropower plants, particularly in tropical areas where high concentrations of plant material and high temperatures create anoxic conditions and collect in the dam, degassing as material passes through the turbines (Rams, 2009, p. 2). Exact calculations as to how much methane is released are very difficult and reports to date do not seem to outweigh the carbon avoided by using hydro-power rather than fossil fuel combustion. Despite some environmental concerns, hydropower will very likely continue to make up a significant part of power for mining operations and, where geographically possible may grow. 3.6.3.2 Geothermal  Like hydropower, geothermal power lends itself naturally to mining. The nature of understanding and extracting from the depths of the earth are common to both mining and geothermal energy production. The technology is proven, and has been used for decades throughout the world in homes and regionally in geological hot spots such as Iceland (Edward, 2008). No known mining operations currently use geothermal at the time of writing. British 49  Columbia has not exploited its full potential for geothermal, and it is uncertain now how significant of a role it may play in the future (Majorowicz et al., 2010). Geothermal projects involve significant upfront costs which some analysts quote at several times what the same unit of energy from fossil fuel sources cost; however, projects may become feasible if a price is put on GHG emissions (Barbier, 2002, p. 49). Geothermal has great potential and is likely to take on a growing role in energy production (Arianpoo, 2009; Kimball, 2010). 3.6.3.3 Nuclear  Since its development during World War II, nuclear power has had a strong presence in existing power facilities and in future scenarios. At current consumption rates, the world’s uranium reserves of 4.7 million imperial tons will last 70 years, but fast breed technology and plutonium recycling is expected to increase the energy potential 50 fold (Kessides, 2009, p. 16- 17). Nuclear energy has the ability to satisfy much of the world’s energy demand. James Lovelock, famous for his Gaia hypothesis that suggests Earth’s biosphere is itself a living organism, has stated in numerous papers that nuclear power is the only feasible option (Lovelock, 2004). Fears of nuclear weapons and radioactive waste have been long-standing and still unresolved issues holding nuclear power back from full expansion (Pennington, 2010). Furthermore, the building and maintenance costs of nuclear power plants have proven to be higher than expected and, due to these unexpected costs and safety concerns, investor risk is high (Jaccard, 2005, p. 104). Increased nuclear energy production may be the best option when considering the need for energy security and reductions in GHG emissions. The upfront and maintenance capital required and perceived safety risks remain too high now and into the near future for it to dominate energy production. 50  3.6.3.4 Hydrogen  Hydrogen has been a common theme in alternative energy scenarios since the 1960’s. Hydrogen can be produced using any form of energy, which is appealing for energy security (Elam et al., 2003). Furthermore, hydrogen has virtually no harmful emissions at its final use, making it ideal for individual transportation (Adamson et al., 2000). The fact that hydrogen is actually a secondary energy is often overlooked and understated (Rifkin, 2002).  Some analysts believe that hydrogen may follow the fossil fuel age, a so called hydrogen era. What these theories miss, however, is that the production of hydrogen requires a primary energy. Thus if hydrogen became the dominant secondary energy, the future primary energy would be the one used in hydrogen production, not the hydrogen itself. This is akin to saying the oil age was followed by the electricity age. Most hydrogen is currently made for industrial uses such as feedstock for ammonia and is produced using natural gas, although it can be made by biomass with significant energy penalties (Elam et al., 2003). The literature on projected hydrogen use and details as to how it might work remains vague and there is little consensus on the primary energy source to produce hydrogen (Jaccard, 2005, p. 11). There has been some interesting work on coal gasification to hydrogen with CO2 capture. This works by exposing coal to high pressure oxygen and steam, creating a gas rich in CO2 and H2 and, after additional processing, yields a stream of CO2 for sequestration and H2 for energy use (Ball et al., 2009). A coal mining operation with such an arrangement may be possible; however there are no known proposals of this at the time of writing. Hydrogen could meet all of a mining operation’s energy needs, potentially supplying electricity for milling and fuel for haul trucks. Pipelines already proposed to carry CO2 or existing oil and gas pipes could be twinned and carry hydrogen to site (Ball et al., 2009). To justify such pipelines and other 51  similar distribution projects requires the development of hydrogen producing plants, which in turn require a demand for hydrogen (Jaccard, 2005). Using fossil fuels to produce hydrogen and capturing all the CO2 during its production is interesting and could lead to a carbon dioxide free energy system; however this scenario depends wholly on the safe and permanent storage of carbon through capture and sequestration. 3.6.4 Carbon Capture and Storage Carbon capture and storage (CCS), also known as Carbon Capture and Sequestration, is the idea that CO2, can be captured, separated, transported, and stored instead of releasing it into the atmosphere. Technologies in CCS generally have a negative public perception due to high capital costs and debate of the long-term viability CO2 (Curry, 2004; Duan, 2010). CCS is estimated to increase the costs associated with electricity production by fifty percent, three-quarters of which is estimated for the capture of CO2 (Feron et al., 2005). Several studies have raised alarm about the potential for leaks associated with oceanic and geological storage (Shaffer, 2010), and others debate the effectiveness of reforestation as a carbon sequestration option due to the natural life cycle of vegetation (Yang et al., 2008). Carbon intense industries promote the use of CCS because recognise their dependency on fossil fuels and need to find feasible ways to meet future regulations; research in these technologies are reportedly vast and well supported through groups like the Global CCS Institute (Ashworth et al., 2010). The following section reviews the current state of technologies in carbon capture, and the subsequent section discusses storage options. 52  3.6.4.1 Carbon Capture and Separation Capturing CO2 is commonly divided into three distinct categories: post-combustion, pre- carbonisation, and oxy-fuel combustion (Wall, 2006). The fuel type, CO2 concentrations, and gas pressure are the primary controls of which process is chosen (Olajire, 2010). These three capture technologies are compared in Figure 3.3. Each technology has its own advantages and disadvantages, as discussed in the following section. 53  Figure 3.3: Diagram of the three commonly used CO2 capture technologies: post-combustion, pre-combustion, and oxy-fuel combustion.  (after Wall 2006, pp. 33-34; Olajirie, 2010, p. 2612; and Jordal et.al., 2004, p. 2)  Post-combustion is a downstream process that separates the CO2 from the flue (or chimney) gas produced (Yang et al., 2008). It is analogous to flue gas desulphurisation used to capture SO2 (Feron et al., 2005), which was required after an SO2 cap and was put into effect in Canada, UK, USA, and New Zealand in the mid-1990s through the Clean Air Act (Environment 54  Canada, 2006). There are several challenges that face this technology; the most significant is that are typically low concentrations of CO2 in the flue gas, generally between four and fourteen percent (Olajire, 2010, p. 2611). Thus, a high volume of gases are handled and a number of solvents are required to release the CO2. Pre-combustion, also known as gasification, partial oxidation, or reforming, mixes fuel with oxygen, air, or steam to create a mixture of primarily H2, CO, and, after passing through a catalytic converter, CO2 (Yang et al., 2008, p. 16). This technology works well for coal gasification (Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle or IGCC), biomass, and natural gas, although each utilises slightly different methods (IEA, 2003). There are two advantages of using pre-combustion capture over post combustion. According to most analysts, there is a smaller energy penalty and more potential for additional uses of the by-products (Olajire, 2010). Pre- combustion is also potentially less expensive than post-combustion and some power plants with pre-combustion technologies are more efficient than pulverized coal plants (Yang et al., 2008). The most significant disadvantage compared to post-combustion technologies is the higher upfront capital costs (Elwell et al., 2006). Oxy-fuel combustion can be regarded as a modified pre-combustion system, except that the fuel is mixed with almost pure oxygen, resulting in a higher concentration of CO2 in the flue gas (Olajire, 2010). The advantages of this technology include the purity of the CO2 produced and suppression of NOx (Croiset et al., 2000).  Oxy-fuel combustion has only been proven on small scales, however, and separating air to obtain oxygen is expensive and energy intensive (Yang et al., 2008). 55  These technologies are not in place at any known mining operation at the time of writing. Using such technologies may be a potential approach in mitigating emissions from large emission sources such as a smelter (Rio Tinto, 2010); however the high capital costs likely preclude their use at typical mines. 3.6.4.2 Carbon Dioxide Transportation Once the CO2 is captured and separated from other gases, it must be transported to its storage location. Typically this is done with the CO2 in a liquid state through pipelines (Svensson, 2004). Estimates for the cost of CO2 via pipelines are from $28/t CO2 to $70/t CO2, depending on the distance from the source to the point of storage (IEA, 1999, p. 1; Riahi et al., 2004, p. 541). Pipelines which exist for oil and gas transport could, potentially, be twinned for at least part of the distance (Svensson, 2004). The distance from the source to the storage location controls the transportation costs. If a mine becomes a point of storage this aspect could become a key component in determining economic feasibility. 3.6.4.3 Carbon Storage Several natural and enhanced options for the fixation of carbon dioxide exist. Each option has unique costs, environmental benefits, and safety risks. The most serious of these issues is the prevention of leakage which remains unproven with the exception of mineral carbonation (IPCC, 2005). This section discusses why oceanic storage is unlikely, geological storage involves high environmental and safety risks, forestation will not deliver the amount of storage required, and mineral carbonation is the best bet for long-term, feasible storage, particularly in a mining context.  56  3.6.4.4 Ocean Carbon Storage The Earth’s surface is 70% covered by salt water (Mitchell, 2009, p. 7). The combined absorption  of carbon Oceans to naturally absorb carbon range from 10,000 to 38,000 Gt, based on surface area of oceans and the saturation of CO2 in saltwater, with an estimated annual absorption of 1.7 Gt (Yamasaki, 2003, p. 366; Adams et al., 2008, p. 320). The smaller estimates take biochemistry into consideration, where the larger ones take only the saturation point. Several aspects of oceanic chemistry and biochemistry remain poorly understood (IEA 1999). There is general agreement that the oceans are the most significant natural buffer of climate and atmospheric changes (Yamasaki, 2003). It is estimated that since the industrial revolution, when GHG emissions started in significant quantities, oceans have taken up 30% of the anthropogenic CO2 and absorbed up to 80% of the excess heat created due to global warming (Mitchell, 2009, p. 8). The idea behind ocean storage is to speed up and increase the capacity of saltwater absorption of CO2. The dominant approaches to ocean storage of CO2 are fertilization and deep sea. Ocean fertilization involves production of phytoplankton which breeds at accelerated rates due to the available CO2 and added nutrients (Yang et al., 2008). These plankton release a small amount of CO2 back out into the atmosphere through respiration while they are alive, then eventually die, sinking to deep ocean floor, carrying the carbon in their carcasses. There has been evidence, however, that the carbon does not stay bound to the decomposing plankton and instead releases other GHG’s, such as methane and nitrogen monoxide (Yang et al., 2008, p. 17). These gases have greater warming potential than CO2 (Sekiya et al., 2010).  57  Deep ocean storage is based on the phase change of CO2 from a gas to liquid at depths greater than 3000m (IEA, 1999). The liquid CO2 has negative buoyancy compared to saltwater at the same depths, thus causing the CO2 pumped down to these depths to stay down and sink further if possible (Jaccard, 2005, p. 198). The primary concern with this method is the effects of CO2 on marine life. CO2 exists in seawater as part of the natural carbonate cycle. The CO2 mixes with H2O, reacting to make H+ and HCO3- (Brewer et al., 2009, p. 347). Thus, H+ ions are increased, lowering the pH of the ocean. It has been estimated that adding 5,600 Gt of CO2 (or 200 years of current emissions) would cause the pH to drop by 0.3 units (Adams et al., 2008, p. 320).  This decrease in pH, and the presence of dissolved CO2 before it reacts with the water, is thought to cause respiratory stress and depress metabolic states (IPCC, 2005). Most carbon storage reviews that include oceanic storage options are sceptical but some suggest that more investigation may prove fruitful (Adams et al., 2008; Yang et al., 2008). Negative reports on the risks are increasingly dominating the literature on ocean storage. A widely mainstream media-covered report (Dembicki, 2010) was released in June 2010 by Shaffer (2010), showing that injecting CO2 into oceans will very likely lead to acidification of one full number on the pH scale in the deep ocean (p. 466). Such injections would be disastrous to sea life (Brewer et al., 2009, p. 348). Shaffer (2010) goes on to show that using established low leaking levels from the ocean during oceanic storage the atmosphere at first experiences cooling, in addition to the acidification and oxygen depletion in the ocean, but over the following two thousand years the atmosphere will actually return to a business-as-usual state as modelled with no sequestration used at all. For these reasons, oceanic storage has lost credibility and seems highly unlikely that this method will be used to store carbon.  58  3.6.4.5 Geological Carbon Storage Geological storage of carbon dioxide is perhaps the most widely accepted and understood sequestration technology. It works by pumping the CO2 gas (or liquid at high pressures) below the surface of the earth into saline aquifers, coal seams, and oil and gas fields. The relative capacities and relative pros and cons for each of these geological storage types are summarised in Table 3.7. Saline aquifers, which are sedimentary rock units with water and dissolved salts in the pores, are considered to have the greatest potential for capacity, estimated at 1,000 to 10,000 GtCO2, (IPCC, 2005, p. 41). Table 3.9: Geological Storage Options Geological storage type Estimated storage capacity (GtCO2)6 Relative pros Relative cons Saline aquifers 1,000  10,000 Enormous capacity Not likely near a point source; leakage and risk to groundwater contamination. Coal seams (not including minable reserves) 3  200 Likely to have a well defined site characterization from exploration. Requires expensive equipment and infrastructure into a site that would otherwise be left untouched; leakage and risk to groundwater contamination. Oil and gas fields 675  9007 Well defined site characterization from exploration; possibly already pumping materials down into the field, more likely to be near a point source. Leakage and risk to groundwater contamination. (Source: IPCC, 2005, p. 34 and 41)    6  The IPCC gathered reports from hundreds of sources. The various methods of estimating resources cause the significant difference between the upper and lower estimates.  7  This figure does not include estimates for future, yet unfound, oil and gas fields 59  In all geological storage types, the carbon dioxide is pumped underground and is trapped there by an overlying, theoretically impermeable cap rock and/or is chemically bound to the fluids, minerals, and organic matter present in the host rock (IPCC, 2005). There are significant costs associated with the infrastructure to CO2 underground (Labatt, 2007). The biggest hurdle in moving this technology forward, however, is the potential for leaks. Not only could the CO2 cause health risks to organisms, it has been suggested that with even the lowest estimates, enough CO2 could be leaked back into the atmosphere to return to GHG levels that would have occurred without sequestration of any kind (Shaffer, 2010, p. 466). There are some benefits to geological storage, including enhanced oil recovery IPCC, 2005). Furthermore, this technologies offer short-term (hundreds of years) of storage; re- sequestration might be possible or that other, particularly natural sinks, sequestration options could absorb minor leaks. Constant monitoring and adjusting, in addition to the upfront capital costs may prove to be too expensive, however, and thus alternative storage options should be utilized as well, possibly exclusively. 3.6.4.6 Mineral Carbon Storage Mineral carbon storage works by enhancing the natural weathering process where CO2 is bound to magnesium or calcium from widely available silicate minerals to form carbonate minerals through an exothermic reaction (Lackner et al., 1997; Gerdemann et al., 2003). These silicate minerals are present in mafic and ultramafic rocks, such as gabbro, dunite, and basalt. The idea first appeared in literature by Seifrits (1990, p. 486), and has since been researched extensively throughout the world, most notably by the U.S. Department of Energy. Mineral carbon storage has been the topic of several economic and technical studies at the Norman B. Keevil Institute of Mining of the University of British Columbia, Vancouver (Hitch et. al., 60  2009a; Hitch et al., 2009b; Wilson, 2006). Voormeij et al. (2004), as part of her Master of science thesis, found that BC is well situated for CO2 sequestration given its favourable geology including relatively abundant ultramafic rocks (p. 164). There are several methods used to store carbon in mineral form: underground injection (Gunter et al., 1993), direct carbonation methods utilizing magnesium hydroxide (Lackner et al., 1995), aqueous absorption (Kojima et al., 1997), and direct carbonation using carbonic acid (O’Connor et al., 1998). Carbon stored in carbonate form can be considered permanent in terms of human time scales. In fact thermodynamically speaking, carbon is at its most stable state in atmospheric conditions in carbonate form (Goldberg, 2001). Waste rock in mining tailings that are rich in magnesium and calcium silicates can be used for mineral carbon storage, and thus can add value to waste rock while providing permanent and safe carbon storage that does not require monitoring (Hitch et al., 2009). 3.6.4.7 Forestation Carbon Storage Forestation is an excellent carbon storage option. Not only is carbon sequestered, it also supports natural ecosystems and promotes biodiversity when completed correctly (Yang et al, 2008). It is challenging to measure how much carbon is absorbed by forestation due to variations between ecosystems and species. It is estimated that approximate 1.4 Gt of carbon is captured annually by forests, and if fully developed could reach 5 Gt of carbon annually (Yamasaki, 2003, p. 368; Yang et al., 2008, p. 17). There are also extensive research projects on the ability of soils to absorb carbon as part of a forest or natural terrestrial ecosystem. These soils are estimated to absorb 65 to 83 kg of carbon per hectare per year (Berg et al., 2007, p. 542). Using natural systems can be subject to questions of additionality, i.e. whether or not a given forest would have  61  been protected without the assistance of carbon mitigation tools (Luukkonen, 2000, p, 712). Typically this is demonstrated by showing that the development or protection of a natural area is less financially profitable than the land use the development replaces (Smith et al, 2003, p. 2150). Mining firms can benefit from the use of forestation as a form of carbon storage on several fronts. The land on the property not associated with the mining can be protected, as can land in neighbouring areas. Furthermore, properly reclaimed land after mine closure can store significant carbon (Nair, 2009). Mining firms can both purchase offsets that protect the land in these ways, and can develop their own offsets that they can sell through their own activities such as mine site reclamation. 62  3.7 Chapter Summary  This chapter outlines climate change science issues and the role of fossil fuels now and in the future. It suggests that fossil fuels will be used for generations to come and plans effective in meeting future GHG management must include continued use of these fuel sources. Emissions from mining relative to overall emissions from Canada are described. It shows that emissions from mining make up a relatively small proportion of overall emissions. Policies developed to react to climate change are discussed, along with suggestions as to their near future directions. It suggests that mining, along with all industries, will soon face these regulations and thus it is important to understand the implications of these proposals. Cap and trade, carbon offsets, and carbon tax, were described and how the mining industry may be affected discussed. GHG management technologies and options were described. This chapter sets the stage for the following chapter, where the results of the content analysis and modelling are presented. The insights gained from this review chapter are relied on in the discussion of the results in Chapter Five.  63  4 Content Analysis and Model Scenarios Results  4.1 Introduction  This chapter is divided into two parts; first the results from the content analysis and second the greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. 4.2 Content Analysis Two primary forces dictate the actions of publicly traded mining companies: shareholder (i.e. public) requirements and governmental regulations (Patten, 2002; Tilt 1994; and Wilmshurst et al., 2010). This research hypothesizes that in recent years the threat of looming regulatory policies (Government of Canada, 2008) and evolving public opinion on climate change issues (Giddens, 2008) have influenced the short and long term goals of mining companies. In order to understand how mining companies have responded, a content analysis has been conducted on the annual reports from mining companies operating in British Columbia. This method creates a data set that may reveal the shifting priorities and goals of British Columbian mining companies. 4.2.1 Data Sources This analysis is based on the annual reports published by mining companies operating in British Columbia. Annual reports are arguably the most important publically disseminated document by a firm (Neu et al., 1998), including those produced by mining companies. These documents are intended to report on the operational results of all mining related activities, as well as to provide a forum for a given company to outline their company strategy in regards to short and long term goals. Discussion and reaction to social, environmental, and regulatory concerns are important components of company strategy. Annual reports are chosen as the medium for this analysis due to their comprehensive nature and public form of distribution. 64   Thirty seven documents published by six companies are analysed. A complete list of these documents with descriptions is included in Appendix A. These documents represent six metal and seven coal mines operating in British Columbia. The Ministry of Energy of British Columbia identifies eight metal and nine coal mines operating in the province as of July, 2010 (B.C. MEMPR, 2010). Two of the metal mines, Max Molybdenum (Roca Mines Incorporated), and Myra Falls (Breakwater Resources Limited) were not included; neither were Trend coal mine (Peace River Coal Incorporated) and Quinsam coal mine (Hillsborough Resources Limited). These four mines do not have annual reports available on their company websites at the time of writing. These companies that are not included in this analysis have evidence of positive community and environmental practices on their websites and in external reports. Their exclusion should in no way suggest poor environmental efforts or lack of reactions to climate change policies. The reports range from the year 2001 to 2010, although only between the years of 2006 to 2008 are all six of the companies represented. A complete list of the reports used is in the Appendix A and summarised in Table 4.1.  65  Table 4.1: Annual Reports Used in this Content Analysis Company Name Annual Reports  British Columbia operation(s) Thompson Creek Mining Company 2006 to 2009 Endako (Mo mine) Taseko Mines Limited  2005 to 2009 Gibraltar (Cu and Mo mine) Imperial Metals Corporation 2002 to 2009 Huckleberry (Cu and Mo mine) and Mount Polley (Cu, Zn, Pb, Au, and Ag mine) Northgate Minerals Corporation 2004 to 2009 Kemess South (Cu and Au mine) Teck Resources Limited (Formerly Teck Cominco) 2001 to 2008 Highland Valley Copper mine (Cu mine), Sullivan (Zn and Pb mine) (closed in 2001); Fording River, Greenhills, Line Creek, and Elkview (coal mines) Western Canadian Coal Corporation 2005 to 2010 Wolverine and Brule (coal mines) Total annual reports analysed: 37  Many of the companies with operations in British Columbia publish data in addition to their annual reports. For example, Teck Resources Limited has published a standalone document on sustainability since 2001. In effort to make results comparable, only reports titled and published by companies as annual reports are included in this analysis.    66  Four terms were chosen based on insights gained through the literature review on greenhouse gas management policies, economic tools, and technologies. These four terms represent the common jargon associated with climate change and greenhouse gas policies. The terms chosen are, ‘sustainability’ or ‘sustainable’, ‘greenhouse’, ‘cap and trade’, and ‘carbon’. All of the occurrences of each of the four terms in the thirty seven documents analysed are included in the appendix. Initially, a score was assigned to the context in which the term occurred; a quantitative usage received a score of three, qualitative two, and general mention one. Nearly all of the terms, with the exception of just two occurrences, received a score of two relating to a qualitative use of the term. All of these scores are presented in the complete tables in Appendix A; however the scores are not used in the analysis presented herein as they are all the same. 4.2.2 Content Analysis Results  The first term, sustainability or sustainable, was searched for using “sustain” to ensure that all forms of the word were included in the results. The word “sustainable” can also refer to long-term finances and economics. Only occurrences that are contained in the context of environmental or community issues are included. This is compliant with the Brundtland definition of sustainability (Pope et al, 2004).  While many definitions of sustainability included economic aspects (Toman, 1992; Gibson, 2001; and Bell, 2008), the author of this report chose to leave terms of sustainability that refer to economics because it was desired to focus on environmental action. These results are summarised in the following table and graph, showing that there was strong use of the word “sustainable” or “sustainability” in the year 2006 and 2007. The years 2006 to 2008 are coloured black to show that these are the years in which all six companies had available annual reports. 67  Figure 4.1: Occurrences of "Sustainability" and "Sustainable" in Annual Reports  A total of one hundred and thirty-nine occurrences of sustain and/or sustainable were counted in the thirty-seven documents. Most of these occurrences are contained in Teck Resources Ltd. reports, making up seventy-five percent of the results. The 2009 annual report from Teck Resources is not included in this report because it was not available at the time of writing. This exclusion in part explains the significant drop in that year. Teck Resources is, however, included in 2008, and a drop in the use of the term is still observed. The second term analysed is “greenhouse”. While greenhouse can have other meanings, only terms that were in the context of greenhouse gases were included. There is a relatively significant spike in the use of the term greenhouse in 2009, despite the fact that only five of the six companies are included in the analysis. The results of this search are summarised in the following figure. 68  Figure 4.2: Occurrences of "Greenhouse" in Annual Reports   In 2009, eight of the occurrences of the word "greenhouse" are contained in the annual report from Thompson Creek Mining Company; the ninth is from Western Coal Company. The 2009 report by Thompson Creek contained an extensive section on climate change and carbon.  The third term, cap and trade, was searched for using “cap”, “trade” and “cap and trade” to ensure that all occurrences were accounted for. This term is commonly found throughout literature and government documents dealing with greenhouse gas management (Government of B.C., 2008a; Government of Canada, 2008). There are, however, very few occurrences of this term in the annual reports, with the first occurrence not until 2008, and a sudden spike in 2009. These results are summarised in the following figure. 69  Figure 4.3: Occurrences of "Cap and Trade" in Annual Reports   As observed in the results for the term greenhouse, the 2009 results are dominated by the annual report by Thompson Creek Mine.  The fourth and final term in this analysis is “carbon”. There are a few occurrences of the term in the context of mine mineralogy. Incidents of the use of carbon in this context are not included in the analysis, and only terms in a greenhouse gas context are counted. The results, as shown in the following figure, show that the term did not appear in the annual reports, and appear only eight times in from the years 2007 to 2008. 70  Figure 4.4: Occurrences of "Carbon" in Annual Reports   The three occurrences of carbon in 2007 are all contained the annual report by Teck Resources Ltd. of that same year. Interestingly, carbon does not appear at all in the 2008 Teck Resources annual report, and all other occurrences are contained in the 2008 and 2009 annual reports from Thompson Creek Mine.  The following figure shows the content analysis for all four of the terms. To add in understanding the socio-political framework in which these annual reports were released in, the timing for key governmental policies and discussion surrounding greenhouse gas management follows in the subsequent table. This study does not have substantial evidence for what may or may not have caused changes in the results found through the content analysis. The Table 4.2 merely summarises some key events which may have had influence on what mining companies were reporting to their stakeholders. 71  Figure 4.5: Combined Results of the Content Analysis with  Table 4.2 Key Political and Economic Events Year Key Events 2001 IPCC publishes climate change findings. 2002 Canadian government tables second plan to meet 1997 Kyoto Protocol 2005 Canadian government tables third plan to meet 1997 Kyoto Protocol 2006 UK’s economic study on risks of climate change, the Stern Review, is published. 2007 IPCC publishes second climate change predictions; Western Climate Initiative forms, and many Canadian provinces sign on to create base for a carbon market.  2008 Federal Government releases “Turning the Corner”; BC Government release “Climate Action Plan”; BC Carbon tax comes into effect. 2009 Global economic turn-down (Sources: IPCC, 2001a; Simpson et al, 2007; Stern, 2006;  IPCC,2007b; WCI, 2010; Government of Canada, 2008; Government of B.C., 2008a)  72   A full discussion of these results is contained in the following chapter, suggesting why some of these patterns developed and how to interpret these results to move proactively forward in future greenhouse gas policies. 4.2.3 Results Validation Stemler (2001) suggests that if the data used is durable and the process employed can be replicated the technique of content analysis in understanding its message can be effective and validated. The process is clearly outlined and uses software that is highly accessible to most users of computers, Adobe® pdf reader and Microsoft Office Excel. Furthermore, the data is completely and intentionally publicly available. For these reasons, the results can be easily and readily replicated. To avoid error by the researcher, three random documents were analysed by a third-party colleague. Two documents were also counted by hand by the author to check for any potential errors with the Adobe® pdf reader.  In the future, companies may remove older, outdated annual reports from their websites making them more difficult to obtain. Such documents are kept on file, however, and thus even well into the future a repeat of this study is likely possible. 73  4.3 Greenhouse Gas Model Scenarios  To understand how to move forward in GHG management, it is helpful to develop models with which various emissions sources are quantified and compared. To achieve this, a numerical model was developed using dynamic modelling techniques in Microsoft Excel®. This method creates several scenarios in which the future amounts of GHG from various sources can be changed and analysed. The objective of this is to have an improved understanding of how individual sources contribute to overall emissions of typical mines in British Columbia.  Two base models are created using averaged data from several mines operating in British Columbia. These base models depict the total emissions from a typical metal mine and a typical coal mine.  Once these base models are established, the total emissions are divided by sources. These divisions are based on the insights gained in the literature review. The typical models for greenhouse gas reduction approach reductions in four parts; fuel switching, increased efficiency, land use changes, and carbon capture and sequestration (Jaccard, 2005; NRTEE, 2009). The model developed for this research focuses on fuel switching and increasing efficiency and does not include any greenhouse gases emissions avoided through land use changes or sequestration.  The exclusion of land use change and carbon sequestration is due primarily to the fact that the data used to delineate the various sources of greenhouse gases do not have any quantified information on land use or sequestration. Land use could be incorporated into greenhouse gas management of a mine through third party offsets during operations and in the typical reclamation period after the closure of the mine (Marland, 2001; MacLeod, 2004). The model developed here ends shortly after the closure of the mine. Carbon sequestration is also not included in the model for three reasons. First, there is a lack of data that might make its inclusion meaningful. Second, the literature review for this research concluded that geological and oceanic 74  storage of carbon is not a safe or feasible solution in its current state of scientific understanding of the processes (Dembicki, 2008; Brewer, 2009; and Shaffer, 2010). Mineral storage is an excellent option due to its safety and permanent containment of carbon (Lackner et al., 1997; Kojima et al., 1997; O’Connor et al., 1998; Goldberg, 2001; Gerdemann et al., 2003; Yamasaki, 2003; Voormeij, 2004; and Yang et al., 2008). Extensive research is currently being done seeking to show that mineral sequestration is a feasible and beneficial approach in reducing carbon emissions at mines and other emission sources (Hitch et al., 2009a, Hitch et al, 2009b). The technologies to achieve carbon sequestration are not yet completely understood and remain economically non-feasible. Furthermore, the details with the capture and transport of the gases remain to be determined. For this reason, sequestration is also not considered in the model but is included in the discussion on the results of the models.  The following section is a description of the models developed for this research. It reviews the base case models developed, then describes the scenarios created to analyse changes in efficiencies and fuel use in the representative coal and metal mine models. A full explanation of how these models were developed in included in the Appendix B. 4.3.1 Data Sources and Base Cases  The first step in developing a model is to create two base-case scenarios. They are based on typical mine life cycles, tonnes of ore or coal produced, and greenhouse emissions. The Mining Association of British Columbia states a typical mine life, after exploration, assessment, and approval, is one to two years for construction, ten to thirty years of full operations, and one to ten years for closure and rehabilitation (MABC, 2010, p. 3). The base case mine life used is the same for both the metal and coal mine models. This research uses two years for construction and ramp-up, twenty years for full operation, and two years of ramp-down and closure. It is 75  assumed that there will be no significant emissions during rehabilitation, and thus this part of the mine cycle is not included in the model. Most aspects of a mine life, such as tonnes produced and profits have a bell-like curve with a start-up, full operations, and wind-down. It stands to reason the greenhouse gas emissions would follow a similar trend given the pattern of activity at a mine. This is summarised in the following image, depicting a generalised start up, full operations, and shut down pattern of a typical mine. Figure 4.6: Generalised Mine Life Cycle with Relative Greenhouse Gas Emissions Over Time   Two models are developed, one for a typical coal mine and one for a typical metal mine. These models are based on the typical mine life, carbon intensity, and tonnes of product produced. Each are determined using averages from available data on mines operating in British Columbia.  Greenhouse gas emissions specific to metal and coal mines is currently not publicly available information. Confidentiality and secrecy of emissions data are likely change as industries are expected to face increasing regulations to report their individual emissions. For example, any facility in British Columbia emitting more than 10,000 tonnes of CO2 equivalent will have to report their emissions starting from January 2010; those operations emitting more than 25,000 tonnes will be required to have their reports validated by a third party (Cap and Trade Act, 2009). General emissions data at industry-wide levels is currently accessible, and 76  occasionally individual mine levels are available through company websites and third party agencies such as the General Reporting Initiative. The tonnes of ore or coal produced at mines and other similar details of a mine are readily accessible information. Using the total greenhouse gas emissions and the tonnes of ore or coal produced at a mine, carbon intensity can be calculated. This indicator is commonly used to compare the total emissions in terms of CO2 equivalent to another indicator such as energy or population (Raupach, 2007, p. 10288).  For this research, the carbon intensity is in tonnes of emissions in carbon dioxide equivalent terms to tonnes of product (coal or ore). Using the total reported greenhouse gas emissions for all of Teck Resources Limited's operations and their respective tonnes of mined ore, the average carbon intensity for a Teck Resources metal mine is 0.42 tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent emissions per tonne of mined product, as summarised in the following table. Table 4.3 Carbon Intensities for Metal Mining Operations Owned by Teck Resources Limited 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Highland Valley Copper 0.39 0.43 0.50 0.82 1.25 Lennard Shelf  0.92 0.82 Pend Oreille  0.04 0.05 0.07 0.06 Red Dog 0.27 0.29 0.27 0.27 0.30  Average carbon intensity: (tonnes of CO2e/tonne concentrate) 0.42  (Sources: Teck, 2009; Infomine 2010) 77  Although only Teck Resources was considered in deriving a carbon intensity of 0.42 tonnes CO2e per tonnes commodity produced, it is a fair assumption that this is a typical intensity given the diversity of the company's operations.  Carbon intensity was similarly calculated for Teck Resources' six coal mines. There was data available only from 2006 to 2008. This gave an average of 0.06 tonnes CO2e per tonne of coal produced. Given the diversity of these six coal mines, it stands to reason that a carbon intensity of 0.06 is an appropriate estimation for all coal mines in British Columbia. This is summarised in the following table. Table 4.4: Carbon Intensities for Coal Mining Operations Owned by Teck Resources Limited 2006 2007 2008 Cardinal River 0.054 0.055 0.061 Coal Mountain 0.052 0.06 0.058 Elkview 0.066 0.074 0.07 Fording River 0.053 0.059 0.054 Greenhills 0.071 0.08 0.076 Line Creek 0.036 0.045 0.05 Average Carbon Intensity: (tonnes of CO2e per tonne coal)  0.06 (Teck, 2009; Infomine 2010)  78  Using the same carbon intensity (0.42 and 0.06) for all stages of the mine is in keeping with what has been observed since greenhouse gas emissions started being tracked by Teck Resources Limited in 2004. As shown in the diagram below, the carbon intensities are relatively stable from 2004 to 2008 with the exception of Highland Valley Copper mine. Figure 4.7: Carbon Intensities from 2004 to 2008 from Teck Resources Limited's Operations  (Sources: Teck Resources Ltd., 2008a, 2008b, 2008c, 2008d, and 2010) The sudden spike in 2006 to 2008 is reportedly due to an increase in distances from the mine face to the processing facilities causing an increase in haul truck use (Teck, 2007); the carbon intensity has once again levelled off in 2009 (Edwards, personal communication, August 17, 2010). This highlights the importance of changes in haul truck management and overall GHG emissions, as explored in the scenarios developed for this research.  Finding an average for tonnes of ore produced in metal mines is more difficult than some of the other indicators, given the wide variety in the type of commodities produced. For example, in 2008 Highland Valley Copper produced approximately 120,000 tonnes of copper and 2,000 79  tonnes of Molybdenite, while Red Dog mine produced nearly five times that with more than 580,000 tonnes of zinc (Infomine, 2010). An approximated average between these two is 350,000 tonnes produced per year. This number can be checked for its appropriateness by using it and the carbon intensity to back-calculate the carbon emissions, as shown in Equation 4.1. 350,000 tonnes of concentrate * 0.42 tonnes of CO2e / tonne of concentrate = 147,000 tonnes of CO2e (Equation 4.1) Thus, 350,000 tonnes of product and a carbon intensity of 0.42 yield 147,000 tonnes of CO2e. In 2007, Highland Valley Copper emitted 116,000 tonnes of CO2e, and in 2008 it emitted nearly 160,000 tonnes (Teck Resources Ltd., 2007, p. 6; Edwards, personal communication, August 17, 2010). In both 2007 and 2008, Red Dog in Alaska emitted 190,000 tonnes of CO2e (Teck Resources Ltd., 2008b, p. 13). Pend mine in Washington State emitted 2,600 tonnes of CO2e in 2008 (Teck Resources Ltd., 2008e, p. 7). While these figures are widely varying, it suggests that an approximation of 147,000 as a typical amount of yearly CO2e is reasonable. Thus, 350,000 tonnes of ore produced each year is used for the base case model is appropriate based on data from metal mines operating in and near British Columbia.  Teck Resources Limited produced 650,000,000 tonnes of coal from 2007 to 2008 between 6 coal mines, thus an average of nearly 3,600,000 tonnes per year, per mine (Teck Resources Ltd., 2008c., p. 9). To check how appropriate using 3,600,000 tonnes of coal per year for the coal base model in this research, the total CO2e is calculated using the coal mine carbon intensity of 0.06.  80  3,600,000 tonnes of coal * 0.06 tonnes of CO2e / tonne of coal = 216,000 tonnes of CO2e (Equation 4.2) This gives 216,000 tonnes of CO2e per mine, or approximately 1,296,000 tonnes for all six mines. From 2006 to 2008, Teck Coal reported between 1,295,000 and 1,509,000 tonnes of CO2e (Teck Resources Ltd. 2008c, p. 11). Thus, using 216,000 tonnes CO2e and 3,600,000 tonnes of coal yearly are appropriate approximations for the coal mine model.  The result of these approximations, with the outlined typical mine life, are two base models. These are depicted in the following two figures (Figure 4.3 and Figure 4.4). Figure 4.8: Base Case Model for a Typical Metal Mine in British Columbia      81  Figure 4.9 Base Case Model for a Typical Coal Mine in British Columbia  Spreadsheets containing this data for these base models and the scenarios are included in the appendix. Using stable amount greenhouse gas emissions is in keeping with what is observed at most mining operations, including those owned and operated by Teck Resources upon which much of this modelling is strongly based.  In order to gain insight into which behavioural changes would yield the most significant results in reducing greenhouse gases one must delineate the various sources of the emissions. The divisions used in this model are based on those established in previous models (NRTEE, 2009; Jaccard, 2005) and recommendations for areas to focus on as explored in the literature review of this research. These models focus on increased efficiency and fuel switching.  A detailed breakdown of these sources for mining operations is very difficult to obtain. There are various potential reasons for why releases on information remains restricted. The most likely reason is that it is not required by legislation. Companies may not want to expose any 82  information that may leave them vulnerable to criticism from environmental groups, particularly if it is not required by governing bodies. Even the new British Columbia regulation that requires all firms emitting over 10,000 tonnes of CO2e per year to report on their emissions will not involve differentiating sources such as transport and energy consumption (Cap and Trade Act, 2009). Fortunately, Teck Resources Limited provided internal documents for the use of this research that divides each point source of emissions in 2009 related to their Highland Valley copper mine and their six coal mines, Greenhills, Coal Mountain, Line, Creek, Fording River, Elkview, and Cardinal River. It is important to note that this information has been kept strictly confidential at the request of the company and the specific numbers do not appear in this research. With the approval of the company, the information is only used to validate and is presented as approximate amounts relative from one source to another. 4.3.2 Typical Metal Mine Emissions Scenarios  As stated previously, detailed data on the individual sources that contribute to the overall emissions of a mine are not available. While studying the trends in total emissions can be useful for policy makers, investigating the specific sources such as blasting, haul trucks, and stationary energy use will help focus future efforts. Using the 2009 data from Teck Resources Limited, the relative amount of emissions from each source is entered into the base models. The emissions are divided into four groups: energy, transportation, mining, and refining. This division is based both on how the data is presented by Teck Resources Ltd. and how previous greenhouse gas models have been organised (Jaccard, 2005; NRTEE, 2009). Given the way in which the models are developed and the nature of the data used, the models are illustrative rather than factual representations of particular mines. 83   The relative emissions at Highland Valley Copper are summarised in the Figure 4.5. Seventy-nine percent of emissions come from haul trucks. Given that transportation dominates the emissions at Highland Valley Copper, and that this mine is similar to other metal mining operations, transportation is an obvious choice for focusing future research in greenhouse gas emissions reductions. Figure 4.10 Relative 2009 CO2e Emissions at Highland Valley Copper Mine  (M. Edwards, personal communication, August 17, 2010) Assuming that the relative proportions of the various sources remain constant over the life of a mine, the overall emissions from the base model is divided into the various sources as shown in Figure 4.6. 84  Figure 4.11: GHG by Source for a Typical Metal Mine Using Current Trends  Highland Valley Copper reports using twenty six haul trucks, fourteen Cat-789 and twelve Cat- 793 (Teck, 2008; Infomine, 2010). The cost of this equipment is variable, with replacement costs in the range of one to five million Canadian Dollars (National Geographic, 2010; Infomine, 2009). Purchasing a new, more efficient piece of equipment can be an expensive decision. Information on how efficient these particular haul trucks are is not known. Typically, haul truck efficiency is highly dependent on how they are used, for example the use of the throttle or how heavily the trucks are loaded (Jellinbah Resources, 2010 and Downer EDI Mining, 2010, as cited by Queensland Resources Council, 2010). To simulate the effects of using an increasingly efficient fleet of haul trucks, the base typical metal mine model is changed such that trucks are systematically retrofitted to reduce GHG emissions by five percent. 85  Five percent is chosen to illustrate how a small change can have great effects overall. Most retrofit technologies for diesel trucks reduce GHG and other emissions significantly more than five percent (B.C. MTI, 2010).  In this simulation it is assumed that the haul trucks make up enough of the transportation emissions they can be treated as responsible for one hundred percent of those emissions, the mine uses twenty six haul trucks in every year, and the trucks maintain their levels of efficiencies throughout the life of the mine. This mine model has thirteen original trucks online by the end of the first year in the start-up phase, and twenty six haul trucks by the start of full production. One of these trucks is retrofitted such that it emits five percent less GHG emissions in the third year, and another truck is retrofitted each subsequent year. By the twenty- first year, there are seven of the original trucks remaining and nineteen retrofitted ones. As with the start-up period, only thirteen are operational by mid-way through the shut down phase, all of which are the retrofitted trucks. This result is summarised in Figure 4.12. Figure 4.12: Typical Metal Mine with Increasingly Efficient Fleet of Haul Trucks (5%)  86  In this scenario, the mine emits 43,587 tonnes of CO2e less than it did without the 5% improvement in efficiency in year 21. Over the life of the mine, 465,690 tonnes of CO2e are avoided. Depending on the cost of these retrofits and the price of carbon, such an arrangement may prove to be economically beneficial as explored in the discussion section of this research.  ETF, a company that builds mining trucks, claims that their trucks emit 25% less emissions than the competition (ETF, 2010). This number far exceeds what one might expect. The costs compared to other mining trucks are not known, yet it may prove illustrative to plug in this 25% decrease into the base model. Once again, this scenario assumes the mine starts with twenty-six haul trucks, thirteen of them online by the end of the first year, and starting in the third year one truck is replaced such that by the twenty-fourth year there are seven old trucks and nineteen new ones. This model, same as the last, assumes that all twenty-six trucks are used throughout the life of the mine at full operation, the trucks maintain their levels of efficiency, and the haul trucks make up a significant enough proportion of the transportation emissions such that they are treated as the sole source of transport greenhouse gases. The results are 217,934 tonnes of CO2e avoided in the twenty-first year, and 2,328,450 tonnes of CO2e over the life of the mine, as sown in Figure 4.13. 87   Figure 4.13: Typical Metal Mine with Increasingly Efficient Fleet of Haul Trucks (25%)   These simulations of a representative metal mine illustrate how small changes in efficiencies can have great effects on the overall emissions of an operation. If these options were economically beneficial now, certainly mining companies in British Columbia have the expertise to assess and implement such options. The fact that they are not currently in use reflects that this may not yet be the case. These small adjustments may not be feasible in the current economic and political environment, but with the implementation of financial tools such as cap and trade and carbon offset trading these options may become favourable. 88  4.3.3 Typical Coal Mine Emissions Scenarios  The greenhouse gas emissions for coal mines are more evenly distributed than those observed in metal mines. Energy, transport and fugitive gases from the mine site each make up approximately one-third of the total emissions, as depicted in Figure 4.9. To reduce the overall emissions from coal mines, each of these three factors are considered in the simulations for this research. Figure 4.14: Relative 2009 CO2e Emissions for all of Teck Coal Operations  (M. Edwards, personal communication, August 17, 2010) Entering these distributions into the base case model of coal mines yields the graph shown in Figure 4.15. Over the life of this simulated mine, 4,536,000 tonnes of CO2e is released.  89  Figure 4.15: GHG by Source for a Typical Coal Mine Using Current Trends   Fugitive gases are included in the GHG from mining in this model. These gases are defined as intentional or unintentional releases of greenhouse gases from the production, processing, transmission, and/or storage of fossil fuels (Environment Canada, 2008, p. 48).  In the case of coal mining, nearly all of these fugitive gases are emitted from the mine face. There are currently two approaches to reducing methane from coal workings. One is to capture the methane and use it for power generation; the second is to flare the methane and convert it into less harmful carbon dioxide (Bibler et al., 1997). Currently these technologies only work for underground coal mines where ventilation systems control the flow of gases in and out of the workings. Theoretically, the coal could be treated for degasification before mining; however, the high costs and low gas content relative to underground coal makes this option highly unlikely and not feasible (Methane to Markets, 2009).  Some work has been done to improve the nature of the coal after it has been mined. For example, there is experimentation on coal dryers that reduce the water content of coal, thus making the coal lighter and better for transporting (Pacific Carbon 90  Trust, 2010). This process has the added benefit of removing sulphur, a particulate known to cause acid rain; however this process is expensive and energy intensive (CCPI, 2010, p. 11). Due to the infancy of these technologies and lack of firm evidence to support their effectiveness, the simulations presented here do not tackle the contributions from fugitive emissions from coal. Instead, it focuses on the emissions produced by transportation and energy consumed.  As done for the typical metal mine in creating more efficient haul trucks, the effects of implementing increasingly efficient haul trucks is explored for coal mines. The results are less impressive than those observed for the metal mine because the emissions from transport at a coal mine make up only one-third the total emissions (compared to seventy-nine percent in the metal mine model). The average coal mine has a fleet of thirty off-highway haul trucks (Infomine, 2010). The first simulation alters the coal mine base model such that one truck is retrofitted each year to make it five percent less greenhouse gas intensive, starting at the end of the second year, Nineteen of the thirty trucks are retrofitted by the last year of full operations (the twenty-first year), and in the ramp-down phase all fifteen trucks (half the fleet) are retrofitted. In this simulation it is assumed that the haul trucks make up enough of the transportation emissions they can be treated as responsible for 100% of those emissions, the mine uses all thirty of the haul trucks in every year of full operations, and the trucks maintain their levels of efficiencies throughout the life of the mine. The result is summarised in Figure 4.11. Full tables are included in the appendix.   91  Figure 4.16: Typical Coal Mine with Increasingly Efficient Fleet of Haul Trucks (5%)  In this scenario, 2,268 tonnes of CO2e is avoided in the 21st year.  Over the life of the mine, over 24,472 tonnes of CO2e is avoided, or an overall reduction of nearly one percent. While one percent is a small improvement, avoiding 2,268 tonnes of CO2e in a year, or 24,472 tonnes of CO2e overall may prove to be a net-benefit for an operation, as discussed in the following chapter. 92   An efficiency improvement of twenty-five percent for the haul trucks, replacing the trucks one year at a time starting at the end of the second year with the same assumptions as the previous model, yield the results presented in Figure 4.12 Figure 4.17: Typical Coal Mine with Increasingly Efficient Fleet of Haul Trucks (25%)  In this scenario, 11,341 tonnes of CO2e is avoided in the 21st year.  Over the life of the mine, over 122,360 tonnes of CO2e is avoided, or an improvement of three percent. Once again, these results are indeed small, but may prove to have net-benefits for an operation as suggested in the following discussion chapter. 93   One third of greenhouse gases from a typical coal mine are from energy. One way energy reductions can be made is through behavioural changes that result in less energy consumed. This is not modelled, however, because this low-hanging fruit is likely already analysed to keep fuel costs at a minimum. Another approach is fuel switching, which has been identified in many studies as a key target in meeting greenhouse gas reduction targets (Jaccard, 2005; Environment Canada, 2006). In the representative model of a coal mine, thirty-five percent of emissions come from energy use; five percent from electricity, twenty percent from coal, and ten percent from natural gas, based on the energy use at Teck Resources operating coal mines (M. Edwards, communication, August 17, 2010). Increasing the use of natural gas instead of coal may prove to be a useful approach in reducing carbon emissions. Ideally, a coal mine could have its energy requirements run on methane captured from the mine face, but no technology for open-pit mining exists today (CCPI, 2010). A common alternative to coal is natural gas, which has nearly twice the heat content than coal and almost half the emissions (Johnson et al, 2004; NETL, 2007). Fuel prices vary greatly overtime; general trends show that coal is typically half the price of natural gas for the same amount of energy (FERC, 2010). There are also costs in switching technologies that are highly dependent on the types of technologies employed. These costs may be offset if legislation is passed that restricts emissions and operations are taxed or required to purchase offsets if they exceed set limits. The future prices of fuels and carbon is strictly speculative, thus any simulation that considers financial losses or benefits would require extensive modelling with thorough cost benefit analysis that is beyond the scope of this research. Despite this, it can be useful to observe how emissions would change if coal is no longer used for stationary combustion and instead natural gas is used for illustrative purposed. 94   In the representative model of a coal mine developed for this research, twenty percent or 43,200 tonnes of CO2e of the greenhouse gases contributes each year during operations is from coal. If it is assumed that the remaining ten percent of fossil fuels for energy is natural gas, a fair assumption given the confidential data from Teck Resources, the original emissions from natural gas is 21,600 tonnes of  CO2e.  This simulation assumes energy consumption is constant over the life of the mine and the exclusive use of natural gas is from the start of the mine. It uses a carbon intensity of fourteen kilograms CO2e per mega-joule for natural gas, and 25 kilogram CO2e per mega joule for coal based on the NETL's (2007) findings. The conversions is summarised in the following table and presented in entirety in the appendix. Table 4.5: Summary of Calculations used to Convert from Coal to Natural Gas while maintaining total energy output Total GHG from coal per year during full operations Total MJ of coal (using 25 kilogram CO2e per mega- joule) Total GHG from Natural Gas per year during full operations Total MJ of natural gas (using 14 kilogram CO2e per mega- joule) Total MJ from both coal and natural gas New GHG if all MJ from natural gas 43,200 t CO2e 1,728,000 MJ 21,600 CO2e 864,000 MJ 2,592,000 MJ 36,288 CO2e  The new total greenhouse gases from energy is 36,288 tonnes of CO2e from natural gas plus the unchanged 10,912 tonnes of CO2e from purchased electricity, resulting in a total of 47,200 tonnes of CO2e for each year of full operation. The emissions from mining and transportation are not changed from the base model settings.  95  Table 4.6: Typical Coal Mine with Natural Gas Instead of Coal for Energy  The result is an avoidance of 111,776 tonnes of CO2e each year of full operations. Over the life of the mine, 598,752 tonnes of CO2e is avoided, or an improvement of thirteen percent. This numbers are significant, yet do not capture the whole picture. It is likely not feasible to use exclusively natural gas for energy, both for economic and technological reasons. As previously discussed in the literature review section for this research that discusses the projected future use of fossil fuels, coal use is expected to grow globally, with reserves to supply on current demand growth curves for at least four hundred years (Jaccard, 2005). It is particularly counter-intuitive to eliminate coal use at the very location where it is mined. Perhaps it may be more realistic to reduce coal consumed for energy rather than eliminate it, as shown in the following scenario. 96   For an illustrative comparison, another scenario is developed where half of the coal burned for energy is replaced by natural gas. All assumptions of the previous model are maintained. Table 4.7: Typical Coal Mine with 50% Reduction of Coal use for Energy    The result of reducing coal use for energy by fifty percent and using natural gas to maintain the same overall energy use is 19,008 tonnes of CO2e avoided each year of full operation. Over the life of the mine, 399,168 tonnes of CO2e is avoided, or an improvement of nine percent. 97  4.4 Conclusions  This chapter presents the results of the content analysis and modelled emissions scenarios conducted for this research. The results of the content analysis shows there was a peak in the use of the selected terms in 2007, particularly in the occurrence of sustainability and sustainable. In 2008, terms directly associated with greenhouse gas management (greenhouse, cap and trade, and carbon) peaked. It suggests that these shifts are in response to changing political paradigms with respect to climate change policies, as illustrated in Table 4.10. These results are discussed in the subsequent chapter.  The results of the simulations on the representative coal and metal mines illustrate that small changes can have significant effects on overall emissions. A thorough cost-benefit analysis is required to completely assess the feasibility of the options presented in this research, namely more efficient haul trucks and fuel switching for energy, as discussed in the subsequent chapter.   98  5 Discussion 5.1 Introduction  This chapter discusses the results from each of the three approaches used in this research. First, a discussion of the strengths and limitations of the approaches and attempts to assess the effectiveness of meeting the research objectives is presented. This is followed by a discussion of the insights gained from each of the approaches and makes recommendations for the mining industry based on these results. The chapter is concluded with summarising remarks on the combined results and gives an overview of how they fit into the bigger picture of sustainability and regional greenhouse gas management. 5.2 Strengths, Limitations, and Effectiveness of the Research Approach  This section discusses the three approaches used in this research in terms of its strengths in creating meaningful information and the limitations due to the data used or difficulties with the chosen technique. The effectiveness of the approaches are in meeting the research objective are assessed. 5.2.1 The Thematic Review on Current State of GHG Topics  An effective literature review is an informative synthesis of a particular topic (Bolderston, 2008). The literature review developed for this research is designed to be more than just a background for the topic; it is intended to serve as standalone reference on the current state of affairs for GHG emissions levels, policies, and management options. It has achieved this through a thematic literature review. This technique organises literature around topics or issues into feasible sizes (UNC, 1998). The themes are based on four highly influential documents by The National Round Table on the Environment and Economy (NRTEE, 2009), the 99  Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2001a), the provincial government (Government of B.C., 2008a), and the federal government (Government of Canada, 2008). Using these documents as a framework for this review is particularly effective because it directly reflects the structures of proposed GHG regulations and policies.  An extensive amount of information exists on topics related to climate change and GHG management. There is very little information, however, on how these issues relate to the mining industry. The literature review in this research attempts to come from the perspective of the mining issues, but is may not be completely effective in assessing how these issues relate to the mining industry due to this lack of information. Furthermore, due to the political nature of actively developing regulations, polices and proposals are constantly changing with uncertain outcomes (Hoffman et al., 2008). In fact several significant political events such as failed climate bills in both the United States and Canada occurred in the late stages of writing the research results that will have direct implications to the future of certain GHG policies (The Economist, 2010). This review loses its effectiveness quickly with age and such reference documents require constant maintenance and updating as technologies and policies evolve. 5.2.2 The Content Analysis on Mining Company Annual Reports  There are several strengths in this approach and the data that is used for the content analysis. The technique creates a quantitative, objective data set which can then be interpreted. This data can then be used to validate (or disprove) passive observations of any shifts in the messages presented in a body of work (Stemler, 2001; and Patten 2008). The use of annual reports is a particularly useful data set because these documents report on the operational results of all mining related activities, as well as to provide a forum for a given company to outline their company strategy in regards to short and long term goals. Annual reports are often considered to 100  be the most important publically disseminated document from a firm (Neu et al., 1998). Any issues or results disclosed in these documents are strategically included, with the knowledge that they are meant for large scale distribution to people with various perspectives. A significant amount of good faith can be made that these reports reflect the idealised values and practices of a company.  The most significant limitation in this content analysis is the small data set used. The data set exists only from 2001 to 2010, and only between 2005 and 2008 are all six companies represented. Five of the six are represented in 2009. Trends are apparent and measureable, however, despite the shifts in data sizes. The issue of years is further compounded by the independent nature of what time period the annual report represents. It is sometimes not clear whether these reports are on a calendar basis or fiscal year. To avoid false assumptions in this regard, the year in the title of the document is the year used in the analysis.  This approach is effective in meeting its research goals to test the hypothesis that looming regulatory policies (Government of Canada, 2008) and evolving public opinion on climate change issues (Giddens, 2008) have influenced the short and long term goals of mining companies. The results of the analysis showed that there is a general upward trend in qualitative reporting from mining companies with operations in British Columbia, despite there being no reductions in GHG emissions from mining over the same time period. It is difficult to draw extensive conclusions from this result given the small size of the data set, but is useful in laying the groundwork for future work in understanding this phenomenon. 101  5.2.3 Emissions Scenarios of Typical Mines  The strength in the models developed for this research are in their ability to illustrate the influences point sources have on net GHG emissions over time. These scenarios compliment the previous approaches to develop a complete picture of the current state of GHG emissions in mining.  As with the other approaches in this research, the greatest limitation in these models is the lack of available data. While the models are excellent for illustrative purposes, they cannot be treated as predictive scenarios. A second limitation is their simplistic view. The costs, feasibility, and infrastructure issues are outside the scope of this study and thus these scenarios are not true representations of a mining operation.  Despite these limitations, the models are effective in meeting the research objectives which are to gain insight into the various greenhouse gas sources and estimate their influences on changes in overall emissions. The results of these scenarios lead to the recommendations made later in this presentation for future targets of investment and research. 5.3 Greenhouse Gas Management in Mining: Insight from Literature Review  The thematic literature review outlines the options for industries such as the mining industry in British Columbia for effective management of GHG emissions. Several studies, such as NRTEE (2009) and Jaccard (2005), state that meeting GHG reduction targets will require the implementation of many technical and economic options.  The insights gained from the literature review are used to develop the content analysis and the scenarios. The review outlines which economic and technical options are feasible and effective in reducing greenhouse gases. These options are still generally in development phase, 102  and thus this recommendation may change as regulations become legislated and technologies mature. Using the current state of policies, economic tools, and technical options, a decision tree or strategy path is developed, as summarised in Figure 5.1. It is a simplified path because there are still uncertainties in future feasibilities of options and policies. The complex cost analyses and background research is not shown in this diagram.  This research suggests that the first step in reducing GHG emissions is to establish a firm baseline of emissions by accurately accounting emissions. Once emission levels are known, a firm can then assess the levels they wish or are required to reduce. If there are no emissions to be cut, the decision path ends and emissions are recounted as needed. Even if it is known that no matter how much a firm is emitting, a firm will not take efforts to cut emissions it is still useful to measure GHG levels. Establishing a baseline of GHG levels overtime will help prepare a firm in the event that future legislation requires reporting and reductions. It can also help identify areas where sustainable practices can be implemented. If reductions are required, most analysts recommend that the least expensive and most easily attained gains are made through finding ways to increase efficiency, switch fuels, change behaviours that lead to reduced consumption, and support natural ecosystems (Jaccard, 2005). If further reductions are required, several analysts recommend that carbon capture and sequestration technologies should be implemented (IPCC, 2005; NRTEE, 2009). This assumes a future where such technologies are proven and feasible, which remains to be seen. IT is included in this recommendation, but clearly states that such action should only be taken if technically possible and economically feasible at the time.  103  Any remaining reductions must be made through the purchase of carbon offsets. The decision chart shown in Figure 5.1 could be easily adapted to the unique circumstances of individual mines. For example, if a mine is near a significant water way, hydropower could be specifically explored in the third step. This diagram is meant to illustrate how a company might develop it long term strategy to meet potential emissions reduction requirements in the future. Figure 5.1: Simplified Decision Chart for Emissions Reductions    104  New technologies and upgrades may be expensive. At some point, the costs to cut emissions will be greater than the penalties, such as paying a fine or losing a permit to operate (Jaccard, 2005). This realisation of costs has caused great fear in economic leaders (Lohmann, 2008). Offsets, however, allow projects to stay below the set emissions levels, while remaining economically feasible. As Labatt (2007) explains, so long as these offsets and/or penalties are regulated such that they are both affordable yet expensive enough to encourage firms to cut their own emissions, carbon reduction targets can be met. 5.4 Qualitative Reporting: Insight from the Content Analysis  The hypothesis proposed in this research postulates that there is incentive to report qualitative reports on greenhouse gas emissions despite the fact that real reductions in emissions have not occurred. The content analysis did indeed reveal a trend of increasing reporting immediately following key political events such as the 2007 release of the IPCC climate change findings.  There are two interesting trend observed in the content analysis results. First, there is indeed a general increase in the use of the chosen terms, sustainability, greenhouse, cap and trade, and carbon, up to and including the year 2007. It is suggested here that this upward trend is in response to public pressure as the effects of climate change become more widely understood (Webster et al., 2003; Catelin, 2008) and the proposals for governmental regulations of emissions since the Kyoto protocol (United Nations, 1998). A more extensive political analysis is required to determine for certain if these are indeed the drivers of this upward trend.  105  The second interesting aspect of the data set generated though the content analysis is sudden drop in all of the terms in 2008. There is no evidence of weakening GHG policy development in this year. The most recent economic downturn, which is still lingering at the time of writing, is believed by most analysts to have started in late 2007 and financial markets lost significant value throughout the second half of 2008 (Cecchetti, 2009). There is not enough data to rule out the chance that the drop in 2008 is due to an anomaly, but perhaps the drop in 2008 qualitative reporting on GHG topics is due to this economic crisis. Several studies have suggested that environmental issues often lose its standing in priorities in times of poor economic performance (Maler et al., 1996; Bowen, 2009). While the future is never certain, the past suggests that this recession shall pass as have all previous downturns (Lucas, 1987; Lane, 2003). Mining companies and all industries should continue to plan for future regulations and should take advantage of a potential delay in legislation due to the current recession by researching options and assessing their feasibility for their operations. 5.5 Detailed Emissions Sources: Insight from Modelling Scenarios  Two GHG emission sources are targeted in the scenarios created in this research; haul trucks and coal combustion. These two sources were chosen because they make up the most significant amount of emissions at a typical mine in British Columbia. Reductions could be made in the other sources, such as blasting or non-haul truck related transport. These reductions would have less of an impact on the overall emissions of a mine. If the goal is to cut net emissions, it follows that the largest emissions sources should be tackled first. Emissions due to fugitive gases at the mine face also contribute significantly to total emissions. There are no technologies that exist at the time of writing that can capture these gases in open-pit mines, and thus reductions in this source are not modelled. 106      In the typical metal mine model, reducing the emissions from haul trucks by five percent, retrofitting the trucks one at a time from the third year to the last year of full operations (the twenty-first year) results in an avoidance of 43,587 tonnes of CO2e in the twenty-first year, and 465,690 tonnes of CO2e over the life of the mine. To illustrate how significant these figures are, imagine a scenario where a firm was forced to make these reductions or pay a tax or buy offsets. Using conservative prediction future price of carbon of fifteen dollars per tonne of CO2e (Stern, 2006), the firm would save up to $653,805 in the twenty-first year or $6,985,350 over the life of the mine. Alternatively, this mine could become certified providers of carbon offsets and use their truck retrofitting program and then these numbers become profits to the operation. Some predict the price of carbon to go as high as two-hundred dollars per tonne of CO2e (NRTEE, 2009), which would increase these figure more than ten times. In the second scenario, where haul trucks are replaced one at a time such that they release twenty-five percent less emissions, all of these figures are five times higher. The costs of retrofitting or replacement are not considered in this scenario and would certainly significantly reduce these figures.  In the typical coal mine model, switching from coal to natural gas was explored to illustrate the effect on overall emissions. In the final scenario, coal use is reduced by one half and the shortfall is made up by increased use of natural gas while maintaining typical energy levels. This fuel switch causes the avoidance of 19,008 tonnes of CO2e for each year of full operations or 399,158 tonnes of CO2e over the life of the mine. In the scenario where carbon tax or offsets are fifteen dollars per tonne of CO2e, this is equivalent to $285,120 each year or 5,987,370 over the life of the mine. At the high end of carbon price predictions of two-hundred dollars per tonne of CO2e, these figures are more than ten times higher. The costs of infrastructure and fuel price differences are not included here, which would significantly reduce these figures. 107   A full cost-benefit analysis is required before any of these scenarios can be proven as economically beneficial or even feasible. Such a study requires extensive economic analysis that would include fuel prices, technology costs, and physical possibilities for infrastructure changes, and is beyond the scope of this research. What these models show is that if emissions reductions policies go ahead as predicted, the costs involved are significant. If mining firms prepare now and find ways to become carbon offset providers through programs such as haul truck replacement or fuel switching programs they may become the recipient of such emissions fees or reduce the costs of compliance. Late reaction or lack of planning may result in mining firms being fined these significant fees. It is thus recommended that in-depth investigation is done on these options. 5.6 Conclusions  Key aspect of GHG management, such as the price of carbon and the level emissions reductions that may be required through legislation, is uncertain. Long term corporate strategy includes planning for uncertainty in factors that influence business decisions (Miles et al., 1978) including those due to proposed and changing regulations (Amit et al, 1993). Hoffman et al. (2008) found that significant uncertainties exist in climate change regulations, particularly in polices based on mechanisms developed in the Kyoto Protocol (p. 720).  The mining industry has a unique advantage in that it is tied closely to natural resources. Geological and mineralogical storage will be developed and controlled by mining experts, as will geothermal energy. With initiatives like the coal dryer system, as proposed by the Pacific Carbon Trust, and creating natural sinks through effective reclamation and land protection, the mining industry could become a purveyor of carbon offsets. Targeting specific emission sources, such as haul truck retrofitting or fuel switching, could lead to certified carbon offset projects. A thorough 108  cost-benefit analysis may prove this to be a significant financial benefit. By becoming a leader in GHG management, mining operations will have less of an impact on natural environments and potentially improve the perceptions of the industry. With this improved reputation, perhaps additional benefits such as reductions in governmental permitting times may be achieved. Other added benefits may include reduced fuel costs or improved mine economics through the development of sequestration capabilities or offset projects. Advance planning for regulations has been proposed in several studies (Stern, 2006, Golub et al, 2009; Krey 2009; Bowen, 2009). Preparing for potential requirements will reduce reaction times and reduce opportunity costs. For all of these reasons, the mining industry must take a proactive approach to its long-term strategy in effectively managing GHG emissions.  109  6 Concluding Remarks and Future Research 6.1 Introduction  This chapter reviews the approaches used in this research. Recommendations for future work are made. The chapter is concluded with closing remarks on the results of this research and the recommendations made. 6.2 Summary of the Research Approach  Three approaches are used in this research. The first is a thematic literature review which is a reference for the current state of affairs of emissions levels, fossil fuel use, climate change policies, and technical options GHG management. The second is a content analysis of annual reports published by mining companies with operations in British Columbia from 2001 to 2010. The third and final approach is dynamic modelling of varying emissions levels from sources at typical mines in British Columbia. The research suffered from small data sets, but successfully achieved the research objectives. The results are used to make recommendations for GHG management in the mining industry and suggest specific areas for investment and research. 6.3 Recommendations for Future Research  An extensive amount of information exists on topics related to climate change and GHG management. There is very little information, however, on how these issues related to the mining industry. The literature review in this research attempts to come from the perspective of the mining issues, but is may not be completely effective in assessing how these issues relate to the mining industry due to this lack of information. Furthermore, due to the political nature of actively developing regulations, polices and proposals are constantly changing with uncertain outcomes (Hoffman et al., 2008). In fact several significant political changes occurred in the late 110  stages of writing the research results (see The Economist, 2010) that will have direct implications to the future of certain GHG policies. For these reasons, it is recommended that the review presented herein on GHG policies and management options be updated as technologies and policies mature and proposed become regulations become binding.  It may prove to be useful to conduct a content analysis on the annual reports published by mining companies operating in British Columbia again in five and/or ten years time. The first signs of quantitative reporting and long-term trends in qualitative reporting may be helpful to policy makers and analysts in understanding industry reaction to proposed legislation.  The two base case models presented herein can easily be replicated using the same strategy of averaging data from mines operating in British Columbia or another region. It may prove to be useful in providing insights to conduct similar scenarios as more data on specific emissions sources becomes available. It is recommended that such scenarios be updated if such data increases in scope and availability.  The models developed for this research explore the effects of reducing emissions from haul trucks and switching from coal to natural gas for energy production. It shows that relatively small reductions though these actions can have significant influence on lowering overall GHG levels. It is outside of the scope of this research to explore the costs and benefits of these options. Such a study is recommended for mining operations that may be required to reduce emissions in the future.   111  6.4 Closing Remarks  This research contributes to the understanding of GHG management in the mining industry of British Columbia. The content analysis shows that companies are paying attention to issues developing in GHG emissions, as shown in the results of the content analysis. The mining industry should take a proactive approach and plan now to meet potential, future GHG reduction regulations. Predicted parameters of potential GHG regulations should be included now in strategic operational decisions, such as those that involve cost-benefit analyses. This will prepare operations for possible future regulations, thus reducing lead up time and decreasing opportunity costs. Mining firms may benefit significantly financially by creating carbon offset projects or by avoiding potential costs to meet emissions reductions targets. Additional benefits may prove that early action is beneficial even in the absence of emission reduction requirements. By lowering GHG levels, mining operations may also lower fuel costs and improve public perception of the industry. Proactive planning now may create scenarios where mining companies flourish in a GHG constrained economy.  112  References Adams, D. (2008). Ocean Storage of CO2. Elements, 4(5), 319-324. Adamson, K., and Pearson, P. (2000). Hydrogen and Methanol: a Comparison of Safety, Economics, Efficiencies and Emissions. 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Science, 292(5517), 686-693. 130  Appendices Appendix A: Content Analysis Table A.1: Summary of the Annual Reports used in the Content Analysis Report Key Company Name Year British Columbia operation(s) Other operations mentioned in report Notes TCM_2006 Thompson Creek Mining Company 2006 Endako (Mo mine) Davidson property (British Columbia), Davidson property (British Columbia), Thompson Creek Mine (Idaho), Langeloth Metallurgical Facility (Pennsylvania) Was Blue Peal Mining Ltd. TCM_2007 Thompson Creek Mining Company 2007 Endako (Mo mine) Davidson property (British Columbia), Davidson property (British Columbia), Thompson Creek Mine (Idaho), Langeloth Metallurgical Facility (Pennsylvania)  TCM_2008 Thompson Creek Mining Company 2008 Endako (Mo mine) Davidson property (British Columbia), Davidson property (British Columbia), Thompson Creek Mine (Idaho), Langeloth Metallurgical Facility (Pennsylvania), Mount Emmons, Colorado)  TCM_2009 Thompson Creek Mining Company 2009 Endako (Mo mine) Davidson property (British Columbia), Davidson property (British Columbia), Thompson Creek Mine (Idaho), Langeloth Metallurgical Facility (Pennsylvania), Mount Emmons, Colorado)  TKO_2005 Taseko Mines Limited 2005 Gibraltar (Cu and Mo mine) Prosperity property (British Columbia) TKO_2006 Taseko Mines Limited 2006 Gibraltar (Cu and Mo mine) Prosperity property (British Columbia), Harmony property (British Columbia)  TKO_2007 Taseko Mines Limited 2007 Gibraltar (Cu and Mo mine) Prosperity property (British Columbia), Harmony property (British Columbia), Aley property (British Columbia)  TKO_2008 Taseko Mines Limited 2008 Gibraltar (Cu and Mo mine) Prosperity property (British Columbia), Harmony property (British Columbia), Aley property (British Columbia)  TKO_2009 Taseko Mines Limited 2009 Gibraltar (Cu and Mo mine) Prosperity property (British Columbia) IMP-MET_2002 Imperial Metals Corporation 2002 Huckleberry (Cu and Mo mine) and Mount Polley (Cu, Zn, Pb, Au, and Ag mine) Sterling property (Nevada), Nak property (British Columbia) Mount Polly was shut down in 2001. Not reopenned yet in this report. 131  Table A.1: Summary of the Annual Reports used in the Content Analysis Report Key Company Name Year British Columbia operation(s) Other operations mentioned in report Notes IMP-MET_2003 Imperial Metals Corporation 2003 Huckleberry (Cu and Mo mine) and Mount Polley (Cu, Zn, Pb, Au, and Ag mine) Sterling property (Nevada), Nak property (British Columbia) Mount Polly back up and running, with extension of ore body IMP-MET_2004 Imperial Metals Corporation 2004 Huckleberry (Cu and Mo mine) and Mount Polley (Cu, Zn, Pb, Au, and Ag mine) Sterling property (Nevada), Nak property (British Columbia), Bear property (British Columbia)  IMP-MET_2005 Imperial Metals Corporation 2005 Huckleberry (Cu and Mo mine) and Mount Polley (Cu, Zn, Pb, Au, and Ag mine) Sterling property (Nevada), Nak property (British Columbia), Bear property (British Columbia)  IMP-MET_2006 Imperial Metals Corporation 2006 Huckleberry (Cu and Mo mine) and Mount Polley (Cu, Zn, Pb, Au, and Ag mine) Sterling property (Nevada), Bear property (British Columbia), Red Chris property (British Columbia), Giant Copper property  (British Columbia), Porcher Island (British Columbia)  IMP-MET_2007 Imperial Metals Corporation 2007 Huckleberry (Cu and Mo mine) and Mount Polley (Cu, Zn, Pb, Au, and Ag mine) Sterling property (Nevada), Bear property (British Columbia), Red Chris property (British Columbia), Giant Copper property  (British Columbia), Porcher Island (British Columbia)  IMP-MET_2008 Imperial Metals Corporation 2008 Huckleberry (Cu and Mo mine) and Mount Polley (Cu, Zn, Pb, Au, and Ag mine) Sterling property (Nevada), Bear property (British Columbia), Red Chris property (British Columbia), Giant Copper property  (British Columbia), Porcher Island (British Columbia)   132  Table A.1: Summary of the Annual Reports used in the Content Analysis Report Key Company Name Year British Columbia operation(s) Other operations mentioned in report Notes IMP-MET_2009 Imperial Metals Corporation 2009 Huckleberry (Cu and Mo mine) and Mount Polley (Cu, Zn, Pb, Au, and Ag mine) Sterling property (Nevada), Red Chris property (British Columbia), Ruddock Creek  (British Columbia), Catface (British Columbia)  NG_2004 Northgate Minerals Corporation 2004 Kemess South (Cu and Au mine) Young-Davidson property (Ontario), Kemess North property (British Columbia)  NG_2005 Northgate Minerals Corporation 2005 Kemess South (Cu and Au mine) Young-Davidson property (Ontario), Kemess North property (British Columbia)  NG_2006 Northgate Minerals Corporation 2006 Kemess South (Cu and Au mine) Young-Davidson property (Ontario), Kemess North property (British Columbia)  NG_2007 Northgate Minerals Corporation 2007 Kemess South (Cu and Au mine) Fosterville mine (Australia), Stawall property (Australia), Young- Davidson property (Ontario), Kemess North property (British Columbia)  NG_2008 Northgate Minerals Corporation 2008 Kemess South (Cu and Au mine) Fosterville mine (Australia), Stawall property (Australia), Young- Davidson property (Ontario), Kemess North property (British Columbia)  NG_2009 Northgate Minerals Corporation 2009 Kemess South (Cu and Au mine) Fosterville mine (Australia), Stawall property (Australia), Young- Davidson property (Ontario), Kemess North property (British Columbia)  TECK_2001 Teck Cominco 2001 Highland Vally Copper mine (Cu mine), Sullivan (Zn & Pb mine), Bullmoose (coal mine), Elkview (coal) Polaris mine (Nunavut), Trail smelter (British Columbia), Williams mine (Ontario), David Bell mine (Ontario), Louvicourt mine (Quebec), Red Dog mine (Alaska),  Pogo property (Alaska), Pend Oreille property (Washington), San Nicolas property (Mexico), Morelos Norte property (Mexico), Cajamarquilla refinery (Peru), Antamina mine (Peru)    133  Table A.1: Summary of the Annual Reports used in the Content Analysis Report Key Company Name Year British Columbia operation(s) Other operations mentioned in report Notes TECK_2002 Teck Cominco 2002 Highland Valley Copper mine (Cu mine), Sullivan (Zn & Pb mine), Bullmoose (coal mine), Elkview (coal) Polaris mine (Nunavut), Trail smelter (British Columbia), Williams mine (Ontario), David Bell mine (Ontario), Louvicourt mine (Quebec), Red Dog mine (Alaska),  Pogo property (Alaska), Pend Oreille property (Washington), San Nicolas property (Mexico), Morelos Norte property (Mexico), Cajamarquilla refinery (Peru), Antamina mine (Peru) Sullivan closes in 2001 TECK_2003 Teck Cominco 2003 Highland Valley Copper mine (Cu mine),  Elk Valley (coal mine), Elkview (coal mine), Bullmoose (coal mine) Trail smelter (British Columbia), Hemlo mine (Ontario),  Louvicourt mine (Quebec), Red Dog mine (Alaska),  Pogo property (Alaska), Pend Oreille mine (Washington), Cajamarquilla refinery (Peru), Antamina mine (Peru) David Bel & Williams are in Hemlo camp. Sold Cajamarquill a and Pen Oreille TECK_2004 Teck Cominco 2004 Highland Valley Copper mine (Cu mine),  Elk Valley (coal mine) Trail smelter (British Columbia), Hemlo mine (Ontario),  Louvicourt mine (Quebec), Pend Oreille mine (Washington), Red Dog mine (Alaska),  Pogo property (Alaska), Antamina mine (Peru)  TECK_2005 Teck Cominco 2005 Highland Valley Copper mine (Cu mine),  Elk Valley (coal mine) Trail smelter (British Columbia), Hemlo mine (Ontario),  Red Dog mine (Alaska),  Pogo property (Alaska), Antamina mine (Peru), Fort Hills oil sands property (Alberta), Pend Oreille mine (Washington),  TECK_2006 Teck Cominco 2006 Highland Valley Copper mine (Cu mine),  Elk Valley (coal mine) Trail smelter (British Columbia), Hemlo mine (Ontario),  Red Dog mine (Alaska),  Pogo property (Alaska), Antamina mine (Peru), Fort Hills oil sands property (Alberta), Pend Oreille mine (Washington), Quebrada Blanca (Chile)  TECK_2007 Teck Cominco 2007 Highland Valley Copper mine (Cu mine),  Teck coal (coal mine) Trail smelter (British Columbia), Hemlo mine (Ontario),  Duck Pond mine (Newfoundland), Red Dog mine and  Pogo property (Alaska), Fort Hills property (Alberta), Pend Oreille mine (Washington), Quebrada Blanca (Chile)  134  Table A.1: Summary of the Annual Reports used in the Content Analysis Report Key Company Name Year British Columbia operation(s) Other operations mentioned in report Notes TECK_2008 Teck 2008 Highland Vally Copper mine (Cu mine),  Teck coal (coal mine) Trail smelter (British Columbia), Hemlo mine (Ontario),  Duck Pond mine (Newfoundland) Red Dog mine (Alaska),  Pogo property (Alaska), Antamina mine (Peru), Fort Hills oil sands property (Alberta), Pend Oreille mine (Washington), Quebrada Blanca (Chile) name changed in 2008 WCC_2005 Western Canadian Coal Corp. 2005 Burnt River- Dillon (coal mine)  Belcourt Group property (British Columbia), Wolverine Group (British Columbia) There was an AR in 2004, but no operating mine. Dillon mine came online in late 2004. WCC_2006 Western Canadian Coal Corp. 2006 Burnt River- Dillon (coal mine), Wolverine (coal mine)  Belcourt Group property (British Columbia)  WCC_2007 Western Canadian Coal Corp. 2007 Brazion group (coal mine), Wolverine group (coal mine)  Belcourt Group property (British Columbia) Burnt river is part of Brazion group WCC_2008 Western Canadian Coal Corp. 2008 Brazion group (coal mine), Wolverine group (coal mine)  Belcourt Group property (British Columbia)  WCC_2009 Western Canadian Coal Corp. 2009 Wolverine (coal mine), Brule (coal mine), and Willow Creek (coal mine) Maple Coal (West Virginia), Gauley Eagle (West Virginia), Energybuild (Wales) Acquired Cambrian and their operations WCC_2010 Western Canadian Coal Corp. 2010 Wolverine (coal mine), Brule (coal mine), and Willow Creek (coal mine) Maple Coal (West Virginia), Gauley Eagle (West Virginia), Energybuild (Wales)    135   Table A.2: Content Analysis Results for Sustain/Sustainable Year Document Score Page Containing sentence NOTES 2001 Teck_2001 2 22 Following the merger, Teck Cominco has renewed its commitment to health and safety, environmental protection and sustainable development.  2001 Teck_2001 2 22 The Board of Directors approved a new Charter of Corporate Responsibility in the first quarter of 2002 and has issued a separate Sustainability Report on can be found on the company website at environmental and social performance at www.teckcominco.com.  2001 Teck_2001 2 22 The Sustainability Report contains information on corporate goals, policies, key performance indicators and progress in operational performance and product stewardship.  2001 Teck_2001 2 22 ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AND SUSTAINABILITY a title 2001 Teck_2001 2 22 World Bank to examine the role of mining in contributing to the sustainable development of communities.  2001 Teck_2001 2 22 The Round Table brought to Kimberley representatives of many communities of interest from around the world to study the Sullivan, Antamina, Red Dog and other mines to identify policies and best practices supporting sustainable development.  2001 Teck_2001 2 22 The participants concluded that Sullivan reflected one of the best examples of how a mine’s activities can contribute to community sustainability.  2002 Teck_2002 2 15 However, a legacy with respect to long-term sustainability will remain, with the community of Tumbler Ridge having emerged as the centre for development of natural gas fields in the surrounding areas, as well as supporting forestry and tourism.  2002 Teck_2002 2 28 A detailed description of the company’s progress in the environment, health, safety and community fields can be found in the Sustainability Report available at www.teckcominco.com/environment/sustain. htm  2002 Teck_2002 2 28 Our objectives for 2003, which are set out in the Sustainability Report, are based on this goal.  2003 Teck_2003 2 28 Further details of Teck Cominco’s progress in the areas of environment, health, safety and community relations can be found in the company’s Sustainability Report available at www.teckcominco.com/environment/sustain.htm.  2004 NG_2004 2 14 Sustainable Development and Community Relations   A title 2004 NG_2004 2 14 Northgate is committed to the concept of sustainable development, which requires balancing good stewardship in the protection of human health and the natural environment with the need for economic growth in the communities in which we operate.   136  Table A.2: Content Analysis Results for Sustain/Sustainable Year Document Score Page Containing sentence NOTES 2001 Teck_2001 2 22 Following the merger, Teck Cominco has renewed its commitment to health and safety, environmental protection and sustainable development.  2001 Teck_2001 2 22 The Board of Directors approved a new Charter of Corporate Responsibility in the first quarter of 2002 and has issued a separate Sustainability Report on can be found on the company website at environmental and social performance which www.teckcominco.com.  2001 Teck_2001 2 22 The Sustainability Report contains information on corporate goals, policies, key performance indicators and progress in operational performance and product stewardship.  2001 Teck_2001 2 22 ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AND SUSTAINABILITY a title 2001 Teck_2001 2 22 World Bank to examine the role of mining in contributing to the sustainable development of communities.  2001 Teck_2001 2 22 The Round Table brought to Kimberley representatives of many communities of interest from around the world to study the Sullivan, Antamina, Red Dog and other mines to identify policies and best practices supporting sustainable development.  2001 Teck_2001 2 22 The participants concluded that Sullivan reflected one of the best examples of how a mine’s activities can contribute to community sustainability.  2002 Teck_2002 2 15 However, a legacy with respect to long-term sustainability will remain, with the community of Tumbler Ridge having emerged as the centre for development of natural gas fields in the surrounding areas, as well as supporting forestry and tourism.  2002 Teck_2002 2 28 A detailed description of the company’s progress in the environment, health, safety and community fields can be found in the Sustainability Report available at www.teckcominco.com/environment/sustain. htm  2002 Teck_2002 2 28 Our objectives for 2003, which are set out in the Sustainability Report, are based on this goal.  2003 Teck_2003 2 28 Further details of Teck Cominco’s progress in the areas of environment, health, safety and community relations can be found in the company’s Sustainability Report available at www.teckcominco.com/environment/sustain.htm.  2004 NG_2004 2 14 Sustainable Development and Community Relations  A title 2004 NG_2004 2 14 Northgate is committed to the concept of sustainable development, which requires balancing good stewardship in the protection of human health and the natural environment with the need for economic growth in the communities in which we operate.    137  Table A.2: Content Analysis Results for Sustain/Sustainable Year Document Score Page Containing sentence NOTES 2004 NG_2004 3 14 Each year, there are many examples of how Northgate and Kemess put the concept of sustainable development into practice. Gave 3 because it gave quantitative information after in regard to sustainability 2004 Teck_2004 2 11 To this end, we have endeavoured to maintain good relations with environmental and social groups who have interests in our operations by listening to their concerns and adjusting our actions when it will lead to a more sustainable outcome.  2004 Teck_2004 2 82 Teck Cominco is committed to making a positive contribution toward sustainable development by balancing the economic, social and environmental consequences of its activities.  2004 Teck_2004 2 82 The company’s Sustainability Report which provides details on progress and performance in this area can be found at www.teckcominco.com/sustainability/reports.htm.  2004 Teck_2004 2 82 The company’s Sustainability Report which provides details on progress and performance in this area can be found at www.teckcominco.com/sustainability/reports.htm. (word occurs twice in this sentence)  2004 Teck_2004 2 82 The Platinum Award for Corporate Excellence from the North West Mining Association in recognition of Teck Cominco American’s outstanding proactive work in incorporating sustainable development principles and community involvement in the permitting and operation of the Pend Oreille mine.  2005 Teck_2005 2 10 Peruvian-regulated worker profit participation and the return of 50% of corporate taxes to fund community projects will make a positive contribution to local communities and regional sustainability.  2005 Teck_2005 2 11 Teck Cominco is committed to the highest level of performance in employee health and safety, environmental protection and sustainability.  2005 Teck_2005 2 11 We report in detail about these commitments in our annual sustainability report.  2005 Teck_2005 2 15 The purpose of this program is to build an auditable and sustainable program to comply with the US Sarbanes- Oxley Act of 2002 related to internal controls over financial reporting and equivalent Canadian rules.  2005 Teck_2005 2 49 The results of our performance and our environmental data will be reported in our annual sustainability report, which will be available by mid-year, at www.teckcominco.com/sustainability/reports/htm.  138  Table A.2: Content Analysis Results for Sustain/Sustainable Year Document Score Page Containing sentence NOTES 2005 Teck_2005 2 49 The results of our performance and our environmental data will be reported in our annual sustainability report, which will be available by mid-year, at www.teckcominco.com/sustainability/reports/htm.  2005 Teck_2005 2 50 A two-year coordinated initiative of the company’s business development groups working closely with community partners, federal and provincial regulators, and the smelter operations teams has now culminated in a sustainable way to avoid the accumulation of electronic waste while returning the contained zinc, lead, indium, germanium and cadmium to commercial use.  2005 Teck_2005 2 50 Highland Valley Centre for Sustainable Waste Management   A title 2005 Teck_2005 2 50 If the project successfully completes an Environmental Impact Assessment and arrangements can be made with the Greater Vancouver Regional District, local communities, and First Nations, the Sustainable waste management facility could be operational by 2008.  2005 Teck_2005 2 50 The project will also establish the Innovation and Sustainability Centre on the site of the old Britannia mine.  2005 TKO_2005 2 2 Commitment to Sustainability a title 2005 TKO_2005 2 8 ...more sustainable, lower cost facility. 2005 TKO_2005 2 11 Sustainability  a title 2005 TKO_2005 2 11 Taseko's sustainability and community initiatives is the belief that "Social License" must form  2005 TKO_2005 2 11 SUSTAINABILITY AND COMMUNITY HIGHLIGHTS 2005 TKO_2005 2 12 ...sustainability and complement Gibraltar's mine reclamation program.  2005 TKO_2005 2 12 ...and sustainability initiatives have been recognized by industry and government.  2005 WCC_2005 2 12 Through all of these efforts, we have worked to establish ourselves as a Company committed to sound environmental management in a sustainability context.  2005 WCC_2005 2 13 A Sustainability Context a title 2006 TCM_2006 2 23 Reclamation of disturbed areas is ongoing with the establishment of a sustainable ecosystem that supports wildlife as the goal after mine closure.  2006 Teck_2006 2 9 We know how to build mines and processing plants in remote areas and how to do so on a sustainable basis.  2006 Teck_2006 2 11 As a company, we are committed to continuous improvement in all our activities, as reflected in our initiatives to expand ISO 14001 compliant and certified environmental management systems at our operations and to implement the Toward Sustainable Mining initiative of the Mining Association of Canada at our Canadian operations.  2006 Teck_2006 2 11 This contribution, combined with excess profit sharing and regional contributions under Peru’s “Canon Minero” will result in substantial contributions from Antamina to regional development and sustainability.  2006 Teck_2006 2 12 SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT a title  139  Table A.2: Content Analysis Results for Sustain/Sustainable Year Document Score Page Containing sentence NOTES 2006 Teck_2006 2 12 Our sustainability reporting is not only a report card on our performance; it’s also a “show and tell” to share how we bring value to our shareholders.  2006 Teck_2006 2 12 Ultimately, we aim to be a company that delivers value to its shareholders through sustainable operations.  2006 Teck_2006 2 12 In 2006, we committed to apply the Global Reporting Initiative “G3” guidelines in our annual sustainability reporting.  2006 Teck_2006 2 12 With this expanded level of reporting, we are striving to enable our stakeholders to be better informed on the contributions that we can make in achieving sustainable development and the challenges and achievements we have encountered along that path.  2006 Teck_2006 2 12 Our 2006 Sustainability Report has been issued as a companion to this report and is available on-line at www.teckcominco.com.  2006 Teck_2006 2 15 The purpose of this program is to build an auditable and sustainable program to comply with the U.S. Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002 related to internal controls over financial reporting and equivalent rules.  2006 Teck_2006 2 58 Maintaining our social licence to operate is a cornerstone of this strategy, and to that end we strive to incorporate the principles of sustainability in all aspects of our activities.  2006 Teck_2006 2 58 In 2006, we began reporting on our sustainability performance using the Global Reporting Initiative (GRI) G3 guidelines.  2006 Teck_2006 2 58 This decision reflects our commitment to identify, monitor and report more fully on those aspects of our activities that significantly influence our contribution to sustainable development.  2006 Teck_2006 2 58 Teck Cominco operates on the fundamental principle of continuous improvement through a broad range of sustainability initiatives.  2006 Teck_2006 2 58 In order to monitor our progress in meeting corporate sustainability objectives, we use various indicators across the different aspects of sustainability (i.e., environmental, safety, health, social, economic, community).  2006 Teck_2006 2 58 In order to monitor our progress in meeting corporate sustainability objectives, we use various indicators across the different aspects of sustainability (i.e., environmental, safety, health, social, economic, community).  2006 Teck_2006 2 58 The adjoining table provides a snapshot of performance trends over the past three years and is elaborated upon in more detail in our annual corporate sustainability report.  2006 Teck_2006 2 58 Establishing low-cost, long-life operations that serve as stable economic engines to support regional development has enabled Teck Cominco to contribute to the sustainability of communities near our operations.   140  Table A.2: Content Analysis Results for Sustain/Sustainable Year Document Score Page Containing sentence NOTES 2006 Teck_2006 2 58 As part of its commitment to local communities, and in cooperation with the government of Peru, Antamina created a US$65 million sustainability fund in 2006.  2006 Teck_2006 2 59 Although our journey to sustainability is a work in progress, we are proud of the contributions that we have made to society.  2006 Teck_2006 2 59 Our approach to sustainable development recognizes that proactive social and environmental management creates real business value.  2006 Teck_2006 2 59 Pursuing a clear, cohesive, and streamlined sustainability program helps lower risk, maintains our “licence to operate”, enhances access to new opportunities and helps our customers meet their own  social and environmental goals.  2006 Teck_2006 2 59 Compliance with GRI sustainability indicators in three years— well advanced with issuance of 2005 report.  2006 Teck_2006 2 59 Sustainability Performance Trends a title 2006 Teck_2006 2 59 Our complete 2006 Sustainability Report will be published in the second quarter of 2007.  2006 Teck_2006 2 59 As part of its commitment to communities, and in cooperation with the government of Peru, Antamina created a US$65 million sustainability fund in 2006.59  2006 Teck_2006 2 62 In the Technology Division, we focus on external and internal growth opportunities, technology transfer and improvement projects and sustainability.  2006 Teck_2006 2 62 Our efforts in sustainability cover a range of activities from the development of solutions for potential environmental issues to the marketing of products that address the efficiency of metal use and related stewardship and life-cycle issues.  2006 Teck_2006 2 63 Much of our work is based on the principles of sustainability, product stewardship and metal life cycles, for example by decreasing the thickness of galvanizing coatings while increasing their corrosion resistance.  2006 Teck_2006 2 63 Our recent investments expose us to this attractive business, which is consistent with our sustainability goals.  2006 Teck_2006 2 122 Sustainability a title 2006 TKO_2006 2 2 SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT a title 2006 TKO_2006 2 13 Taseko is recognized by industry for its innovative approach to sustainability and its commitment to the environment.  2006 TKO_2006 2 13 Taseko is recognized by industry for its innovative approach to sustainability and its commitment to the environment, winning awards from business and environmental groups.  2006 WCC_2006 2 3 Everything we do, from initial mine design and facilities engineering to construction, operation and mine closure planning, is done with a focus on sustainability.    141  Table A.2: Content Analysis Results for Sustain/Sustainable Year Document Score Page Containing sentence NOTES 2007 NG_2007 2 16 Northgate’s corporate goal is to find, develop and operate mines in an environmentally and socially sustainable fashion while providing economic benefits to the surrounding communities and an appropriate rate of return to Northgate’s shareholders.  2007 NG_2007 2 16 At Northgate, we embrace the principles of corporate social responsibility and sustainable development and believe that they are key to the long-term success of our company.  2007 TCM_2007 2 29 The mine’s goal is the establishment of a sustainable ecosystem that supports wildlife after mine closure.  2007 TCM_2007 2 29 The mine’s goal is the establishment of a sustainable ecosystem that supports wildlife after mine closure.  (text is repeated) 2007 Teck_2007 2 3 Sustainability a title 2007 Teck_2007 2 13 SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT a title 2007 Teck_2007 2 13 Our commitment to the principles of sustainability remains a guiding core value for our company.  2007 Teck_2007 2 13 In 2007, we applied the Global Reporting Initiative “G3” guidelines in our annual sustainability reporting.  2007 Teck_2007 2 13 Our 2007 Sustainability Report will be issued as a companion to this report and will be available on-line at www.teckcominco.com in mid 2008.  2007 Teck_2007 2 14 An effective, independent Board of Directors is integral to Teck Cominco’s strategy for achieving sustainability.  2007 Teck_2007 2 15 This year, Teck Cominco will publish its seventh annual Sustainability Report.  2007 Teck_2007 2 15 These Sustainability Reports are but part of Teck Cominco’s response to society’s ever-increasing expectations for businesses to operate more responsibly and to be fully accountable for all their activities.  2007 Teck_2007 2 15 Consequently, Teck Cominco’s Sustainability Reports over the years have outlined management practices and governance policies as well as providing in-depth overviews of individual operations and your company’s efforts to meet performance goals set by the Board of Directors and management.  2007 Teck_2007 2 15 Sustainability is essential to Teck Cominco’s existence and growth.  2007 Teck_2007 2 15 Full and proper corporate governance along with sound management and financial performance are prerequisites to achieving sustainability.  2007 Teck_2007 2 15 An in-depth discussion can be found in the sustainability section of this annual report.  2007 Teck_2007 2 15 On his watch your company inaugurated many of the governance policies and procedures that we now have in place, including the company’s cornerstone Charter of Corporate Responsibility, Code of Ethics and Code of Sustainable Conduct.   142  Table A.2: Content Analysis Results for Sustain/Sustainable Year Document Score Page Containing sentence NOTES 2007 Teck_2007 2 15 Bob recognized that adopting a number of leading governance practices is central to your company’s overall sustainability.  2007 Teck_2007 2 15 Guided by an effective governance framework and committee structure, which he played a major role in implementing, your company has become a leader in governance practices and sustainability.  2007 Teck_2007 2 15 Your company’s overall sustainability strategy has succeeded in helping create the company that Teck Cominco is today – the only remaining major Canadian diversified global mining company controlled in Canada.  2007 Teck_2007 2 15 In the coming years, Teck Cominco will continue its efforts to fulfill its undertaking to operate its business in a responsible manner to achieve sustainable development of its mines and properties.  2007 Teck_2007 2 15 Our goals are to assist your company in continuing to excel in corporate governance and to support the efforts of the Board of Directors and management to maintain Teck Cominco’s leadership role in sustainability.  2007 Teck_2007 2 72 We work to establish and maintain our social licence to operate in the local and regional communities in which we are active by incorporating the principles of sustainable development into all aspects of our business.  2007 Teck_2007 2 72 In these circumstances, our challenge and opportunity is to determine how best to contribute to building sustainable, prosperous and healthy communities.  2007 Teck_2007 2 72 In so doing, we unlock value and create prosperity for our shareholders and society by providing the utility of minerals and metals, which are essential elements of a sustainable world.  2007 Teck_2007 2 72 Our sustainability strategy is focused on continuously improving our performance in five areas: generating wealth and prosperity; applying the best corporate governance practices; demonstrating excellence in safety, health and environmental performance; driving technological innovation and resource stewardship to optimize the utility of our products; and fostering sustainable communities.  2007 Teck_2007 2 72 Our sustainability strategy is focused on continuously improving our performance in five areas: generating wealth and prosperity; applying the best corporate governance practices; demonstrating excellence in safety, health and environmental performance; driving technological innovation and resource stewardship to optimize the utility of our products; and fostering sustainable communities.    143  Table A.2: Content Analysis Results for Sustain/Sustainable Year Document Score Page Containing sentence NOTES 2007 Teck_2007 2 72 Our progress in addressing each of the foregoing areas is described in the comprehensive information on our sustainability activities and performance in our corporate sustainability reports, which are available on our website at www.teck cominco.com.  2007 Teck_2007 2 72 Our progress in addressing each of the foregoing areas is described in the comprehensive information on our sustainability activities and performance in our corporate sustainability reports, which are available on our website at www.teck cominco.com.  2007 Teck_2007 2 72 Since 2006, our sustainability reports have been based on the indicators and standards of the Global Reporting Initiative’s G3 Guidelines.  2007 Teck_2007 2 72 Our sustainability report for 2007 will be available in mid- 2008.  2007 Teck_2007 2 72 Sustainability a title 2007 Teck_2007 2 73 Through these initiatives, we advanced our sustainability performance in 2007 related to resource stewardship and life- cycle management of metals while identifying potential new sources of “urban ore” to supply our processing and refining facilities.  2007 Teck_2007 2 73 We have also experienced an unprecedented level of prosperity over the last few years, and we are determined to give back to society in ways that will foster sustainability long into the future.  2007 Teck_2007 3 73 In 2007, we contributed $16 million to various initiatives in health care, education, conservation and biodiversity, arts and culture, sport and recreation and sustainable communities.  2007 TKO_2007 1 1 Sustainability word on cover page 2008 NG_2008 2 18 Embracing Sustainable Mining Practices to Nurture Long- Term Success  A title 2008 NG_2008 2 18 We embrace social responsibility and sustainable development as keys to the long-term success of our company.  2008 TCM_2008 2 24 The mine’s goal is the establishment of a sustainable ecosystem that supports wildlife after mine closure.  Text is repeated 2008 TCM_2008 2 144 An example of ongoing reclamation of previously disturbed areas at the Endako Mine aimed at establishing a sustainable ecosystem that supports wildlife and native plants after mine closure.  A caption for a photo 2008 Teck_2008 2 2 Sustainability  a title 2008 Teck_2008 2 9 Sustainability  a title 2008 Teck_2008 2 9 Pursuing sustainability is an important part of what we do, and is a priority wherever we work.    144  Table A.2: Content Analysis Results for Sustain/Sustainable Year Document Score Page Containing sentence NOTES 2008 Teck_2008 2 9 Our sustainability commitments to international initiatives, such as the United Nations Global Compact, the Millennium Development Goals and the International Council for Mining and Metals (ICMM) Sustainable Development Framework, reflect our commitment to upholding best practices and improving our performance in many facets of sustainability.  2008 Teck_2008 2 9 Our sustainability commitments to international initiatives, such as the United Nations Global Compact, the Millennium Development Goals and the International Council for Mining and Metals (ICMM) Sustainable Development Framework, reflect our commitment to upholding best practices and improving our performance in many facets of sustainability.  2008 Teck_2008 2 9 Our sustainability commitments to international initiatives, such as the United Nations Global Compact, the Millennium Development Goals and the International Council for Mining and Metals (ICMM) Sustainable Development Framework, reflect our commitment to upholding best practices and improving our performance in many facets of sustainability.  2008 Teck_2008 2 9 Our efforts and work in sustainability were recognized in 2008 when we were named to the Dow Jones Sustainability Index, North America.  2008 Teck_2008 2 9 Our efforts and work in sustainability were recognized in 2008 when we were named to the Dow Jones Sustainability Index, North America.  2008 Teck_2008 2 9 Our focus on developing capacity around community engagement, articulating strategic direction in biodiversity and our continued commitment to Environment, Health, Safety and Community disclosure helped us demonstrate our progress in sustainable development.  2008 Teck_2008 2 9 Each business unit is led by a senior executive with full responsibility for the unit’s performance including the identification and development of projects to improve and grow the business consistent with corporate objectives, the safe and sustainable operation of the unit’s assets, delivering dependable, quality products to customers, and overall business unit financial performance.  2008 Teck_2008 2 50 Sustainability Environment, Health and Safety Performance   A title 2008 Teck_2008 2 50 As part of our sustainability initiatives, we are committed to the efficient use of energy and responsible management of associated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.  2008 Teck_2008 2 50 Sustainability is central to the core values that drive our approach to business and responsible mining.     145  Table A.2: Content Analysis Results for Sustain/Sustainable Year Document Score Page Containing sentence NOTES 2008 Teck_2008 2 51 We produced our third Global Reporting Initiative (GRI)- based sustainability report, for which we received a GRI A+ Application Level rating.  2008 Teck_2008 2 51 Teck received recognition for its sustainability performance by being named to the Dow Jones Sustainability Index (DJSI) North America in 2008.  2008 Teck_2008 2 51 Teck received recognition for its sustainability performance by being named to the Dow Jones Sustainability Index (DJSI) North America in 2008.  2008 Teck_2008 2 51 The DJSI is the first global index tracking the financial performance of the leading sustainability driven companies worldwide.  2008 Teck_2008 1 119 Senior Vice President, Sustainability and External Affairs (contact information)  2008 Teck_2008 1 119 Vice President, Sustainability (contact information) 2009 NG_2009 2 20 We are also committed to mining practices focused on sustainable economic development, and to working with our employees, their families, the local large to improve the quality of life in a way that is both good for local communities in which we operate, and society at economic development and our shareholders.  2009 NG_2009 2 22 As a result, we engage in programs and activities that provide significant socio-economic benefits and sustainable development in each of our operating jurisdictions.  2010 WCC_2010 2 20 Western Coal Corp. is committed to protecting human health; to mitigating mining impacts on the natural environment; and to contributing to prosperous and sustainable local economic development. there were none from WCC in 2007, 2008, or 2009 2010 WCC_2010 2 22 We continually need to earn the support of our communities to maintain our social license to operate sustainably.  2010 WCC_2010 2 23 They are studying for a variety of different trades that will offer sustainable employment opportunities within the region.    146  Table A.3: Content Analysis Results for Greenhouse Year Document Score Page Containing sentence NOTES 2002 Teck_2002 2 7 The Kyoto Accord committed Canada to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 2010 to 6% below the level of 1990.  2002 Teck_2002 3 7 The company has already achieved a 25% reduction in greenhouse gases from the levels recorded in 1990.  2004 Teck_2004 2 83 Implement measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions per unit of production.  2005 Teck_2005 2 50 Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions A title 2005 Teck_2005 2 50 In 2005, a goal was set to implement measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions per unit of production.  2005 Teck_2005 2 50 In 2006, Teck Cominco will also issue and implement formal policies on Energy/Greenhouse Gas management and Biodiversity/Conservation.  2006 TKO_2006 2 9 As part of our sustainability initiatives, we are committed to the efficient use of energy and responsible management of associated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.  2007 Teck_2007 2 73 Carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases are the subject of increasing public concern and regulatory scrutiny.  2007 Teck_2007 2 73 We operate in a number of countries in which regulations have been proposed or introduced to limit or reduce greenhouse gas emissions, such as the Kyoto Protocol.  2007 Teck_2007 2 73 We have undertaken energy efficiency efforts for many years and in many cases these efforts have enabled us to maintain or reduce the intensity of our greenhouse gas emissions.  2007 Teck_2007 2 122 By selecting the papers used for this report 65 trees, 54.080 gallons of water and 37,657 lbs of wood were saved. In addition, 11,390 lbs of greenhouse emissions, 5,871 lbs of landfill and 74,957 BTU (000) of energy were reduced. A note on the back page 2008 Teck_2008 2 9 Improving our energy efficiency at operations and responsibly managing associated greenhouse gas emissions are priorities.  2008 Teck_2008 2 44 The BC government has also expressed its intention to implement a cap and trade mechanism to further reduce greenhouse gas emissions.  2008 Teck_2008 2 50 As part of our sustainability initiatives, we are committed to the efficient use of energy and responsible management of associated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.  2009 TCM_2009 2 44 Regulation of greenhouse gas emissions effects and climate change issues may adversely affect the Corporation’s operations and markets.  147  Table A.3: Content Analysis Results for Greenhouse Year Document Score Page Containing sentence NOTES 2009 TCM_2009 2 44 Many scientists believe that emissions from the combustion of carbon-based fuels contribute to greenhouse effects and therefore potentially to climate change.  2009 TCM_2009 2 44 The US federal government may enact a carbon cap and trade or similar program for greenhouse gas (‘‘GHG’’) emissions which may have a material impact on the Corporation’s energy and other costs.  2009 TCM_2009 2 44 The Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (‘‘RGGI’’) is a cooperative effort by ten Northeast and Mid-Atlantic States to limit greenhouse gas emissions with several Canadian provinces participating as observers.  2009 TCM_2009 2 44 The Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (‘‘RGGI’’) is a cooperative effort by ten Northeast and Mid-Atlantic States to limit greenhouse gas emissions with several Canadian provinces participating as observers. Occurs twice in one sentence 2009 TCM_2009 2 44 The Midwestern Greenhouse Gas Reduction Accord is a preliminary agreement between six Midwestern states and one Canadian province to address GHG emissions through a regional process.  2009 TCM_2009 2 45 The December 1997 Kyoto Protocol established a set of greenhouse gas emission targets for developed countries that have ratified the Protocol.  2009 TCM_2009 2 45 From a medium and long-term perspective, management believes the Corporation is likely to see an increase in costs relating to its assets that emit significant amounts of greenhouse gases as a result of regulatory initiatives in the U.S. and Canada.  2009 WCC_2009 2 48 It has also been indicated by the British Columbia Provincial Government that it plans to implement a cap and trade mechanism to further reduce greenhouse gas emissions.  2010 WCC_2010 2 21 Western Coal is in the initial stages of projects to improve our energy efficiency and reduce greenhouse gases.    148  Table A.4: Content Analysis Results for Cap and Trade Year Document Score Page Containing sentence NOTES 2008 Teck_2008 2 44 The BC government has also expressed its intention to implement a cap and trade mechanism to further reduce greenhouse gas emissions. 2009 TCM_2009 2 44 The US federal government may enact a carbon cap and trade or similar program for greenhouse gas (‘‘GHG’’) emissions which may have a material impact on the Corporation’s energy and other costs. 2009 TCM_2009 2 44 If enacted, ACES would establish a federal economy wide cap-and-trade program for carbon dioxide, methane and several other GHG’s ACES would impose new performance standard on certain emissions industries. 2009 TCM_2009 2 44 The cap-and-trade program, performance standards and other regulatory requirements in ACES could increase the costs and compliance obligations associated with energy intensive businesses, including mining. 2009 TCM_2009 2 44 These regulations could have a similar impact on coal- based and energy-intensive businesses as cap-and-trade legislation. 2009 TCM_2009 2 44 The Western Climate Initiative (‘‘WCI’’) is a cooperative effort of certain US states and Canadian provinces (including British Columbia and Ontario) that are collaborating to identify policies to reduce GHG emissions, including the design and implementation of a regional cap and trade program. 2009 TCM_2009 2 44 The design for the WCI cap and trade program is comprehensive. 2009 TCM_2009 2 44 However, it has indicated that the carbon tax and the cap and trade system will be integrated to avoid double taxation. 2009 WCC_2009 2 44 It has also been indicated by the British Columbia Provincial Government that it plans to implement a cap and trade mechanism to further reduce greenhouse gas emissions.    149  Table A.5: Content Analysis Results for Carbon Year Document Score Page Containing sentence NOTES 2007 Teck_2007 2 73 Carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases are the subject of increasing public concern and regulatory scrutiny.  2007 Teck_2007 2 73 We have several operations that emit large quantities of carbon dioxide or that produce or will produce products that emit large quantities of carbon dioxide when consumed by end users. Occurs twice in one sentence 2007 Teck_2007 2 73 We have several operations that emit large quantities of carbon dioxide or that produce or will produce products that emit large quantities of carbon dioxide when consumed by end users.  2008 TCM_2008 1 11 The alloyed metal allows engines to run hotter, thus reducing carbon emissions, with the added benefit of weight savings to improve fuel efficiency.  2009 TCM_2009 2 42 Mining operations and facilities are intensive users of electricity and carbon based fuels.  2009 TCM_2009 2 44 Many scientists believe that emissions from the combustion of carbon-based fuels contribute to greenhouse effects and therefore potentially to climate change.  2009 TCM_2009 2 44 The US federal government may enact a carbon cap and trade or similar program for greenhouse gas (‘‘GHG’’) emissions which may have a material impact on the Corporation’s energy and other costs.  2009 TCM_2009 2 44 If enacted, ACES would establish a federal economy wide cap-and-trade program for carbon dioxide, methane and several other GHG’s ACES would impose new performance standard on certain emissions industries.     150  Table A.6: Summary of all Occurrences of "Sustainability" and "Sustainable" Year Total number of reports for that year Number of Occurrences 2001 1 7 2002 2 3 2003 2 1 2004 3 8 2005 5 19 2006 6 36 2007 6 37 2008 6 23 2009 5 2 2010 1 10  Table A.7: Summary of all Occurrences of "Greenhouse" Year Total number of reports for that year Number of Occurrences 2001 1 0 2002 2 2 2003 2 0 2004 3 1 2005 5 3 2006 6 1 2007 6 4 2008 6 3 2009 5 9 2010 1 1  151   Table A.8: Summary of all Occurrences of "Cap and Trade" Year Total number of reports for that year Number of Occurrences 2001 1 0 2002 2 0 2003 2 0 2004 3 0 2005 5 0 2006 6 0 2007 6 0 2008 6 1 2009 5 8 2010 1 0  Table A.9: Summary of all Occurrences of "Carbon" Year Total number of reports for that year Number of Occurrences 2001 1 0 2002 2 0 2003 2 0 2004 3 0 2005 5 0 2006 6 0 2007 6 3 2008 6 1 2009 5 4 2010 1 0 152   Appendex B: Emissions Scenarios  This section outlines how each of the models is developed such that they can be created and repeated. Any standard spreadsheet software such as Microsoft Excel® can be used. Summarising tables are presented herein, followed by an explanation for how the figures were calculated. The resulting graphs are shown in Chapter 4 and discussion of the results in Chapter 5. This appendix is meant only to compliment the text of the thesis.  153  Table B.1: Metal Mine Base Model Year Mine Cycle Stage Tonnes produced GHG emissions per year CO2e GHG from energy GHG from transportation GHG from mining 0 Permitting 0 0 0 0 0 1 construction/start-up 175000 735000 137878 596450 671 2 construction/start-up 350000 1470000 275757 1192901 1343 3 Full operation 350000 1470000 275757 1192901 1343 4 Full operation 350000 1470000 275757 1192901 1343 5 Full operation 350000 1470000 275757 1192901 1343 6 Full operation 350000 1470000 275757 1192901 1343 7 Full operation 350000 1470000 275757 1192901 1343 8 Full operation 350000 1470000 275757 1192901 1343 9 Full operation 350000 1470000 275757 1192901 1343 10 Full operation 350000 1470000 275757 1192901 1343 11 Full operation 350000 1470000 275757 1192901 1343 12 Full operation 350000 1470000 275757 1192901 1343 13 Full operation 350000 1470000 275757 1192901 1343 14 Full operation 350000 1470000 275757 1192901 1343 15 Full operation 350000 1470000 275757 1192901 1343 16 Full operation 350000 1470000 275757 1192901 1343 17 Full operation 350000 1470000 275757 1192901 1343 18 Full operation 350000 1470000 275757 1192901 1343 19 Full operation 350000 1470000 275757 1192901 1343 20 Full operation 350000 1470000 275757 1192901 1343 21 Full operation 350000 1470000 275757 1192901 1343 22 Ramp-down and closure 175000 735000 137878 596450 671 23 Ramp-down and closure Total: 30870000  154  Notes for Table B.1: Using averaged data from operating metal mines in British Columbia, a carbon intensity of 4.2 tonnes of CO2e per tonne of concentrate (see Table 4.3) and 350,000 tonnes of concentrate produced per year (Equation 4.1) is used. The total GHG is the carbon intensity times the tonnes of concentrate produced. It is assumed that half of the concentrate is produced half-way through the ramp-up (end of year 1) and ramp-down (end of year 22). Based on confidential data from Teck Resources Ltd., the GHG from energy is 18.76%, from transportation is 81.15%, and from mining is 0.09% of the total GHG emissions. 155  Table B.2: Coal Mine Base Model Year Mine Cycle Stage Tonnes produced GHG emissions per year CO2e GHG from energy GHG from transportation GHG from mining 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 construction/start-up 1800000 108000 37856 35813 34331 2 construction/start-up 3600000 216000 75712 71625 68662 3 Full operation 3600000 216000 75712 71625 68662 4 Full operation 3600000 216000 75712 71625 68662 5 Full operation 3600000 216000 75712 71625 68662 6 Full operation 3600000 216000 75712 71625 68662 7 Full operation 3600000 216000 75712 71625 68662 8 Full operation 3600000 216000 75712 71625 68662 9 Full operation 3600000 216000 75712 71625 68662 10 Full operation 3600000 216000 75712 71625 68662 11 Full operation 3600000 216000 75712 71625 68662 12 Full operation 3600000 216000 75712 71625 68662 13 Full operation 3600000 216000 75712 71625 68662 14 Full operation 3600000 216000 75712 71625 68662 15 Full operation 3600000 216000 75712 71625 68662 16 Full operation 3600000 216000 75712 71625 68662 17 Full operation 3600000 216000 75712 71625 68662 18 Full operation 3600000 216000 75712 71625 68662 19 Full operation 3600000 216000 75712 71625 68662 20 Full operation 3600000 216000 75712 71625 68662 21 Full operation 3600000 216000 75712 71625 68662 22 Ramp-down and closure 1800000 108000 37856 35813 34331 23 Ramp-down and closure 0 0 0 0 0 Total: 4536000  156  Notes for Table B.2: Using averaged data from operating coal mines in British Columbia, a carbon intensity of 0.06 tonnes of CO2e per tonne of coal (see Table 4.4) and 3,600,000 tonnes of coal produced per year (Equation 4.2) is used. The total GHG is the carbon intensity times the tonnes of concentrate produced. It is assumed that half of the concentrate is produced half-way through the ramp-up (end of year 1) and ramp-down (end of year 22). Based on confidential data from Teck Resources Ltd., the GHG from energy is 35.05%, from transportation is 33.16%, and from mining is 31.79% of the total GHG emissions. 157  Table B.3: Metal Mine with Increasingly Efficient Haul Truck Fleet (5%) Year Mine Cycle Stage Tonnage GHG emissions per year CO2e GHG from energy GHG from transportation GHG from mining # of original haul trucks # of new trucks total trucks new transport (5%) new total GHG with 5% more efficient fleet 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 construction/start-up 175000 735000 137878 596450 671 13 0 13 596450 735000 2 construction/start-up 350000 1470000 275757 1192901 1343 26 0 26 1192901 1470000 3 Full operation 350000 1470000 275757 1192901 1343 25 1 26 1190606 1467706 4 Full operation 350000 1470000 275757 1192901 1343 24 2 26 1188312 1465412 5 Full operation 350000 1470000 275757 1192901 1343 23 3 26 1186018 1463118 6 Full operation 350000 1470000 275757 1192901 1343 22 4 26 1183724 1460824 7 Full operation 350000 1470000 275757 1192901 1343 21 5 26 1181430 1458530 8 Full operation 350000 1470000 275757 1192901 1343 20 6 26 1179136 1456236 9 Full operation 350000 1470000 275757 1192901 1343 19 7 26 1176842 1453942 10 Full operation 350000 1470000 275757 1192901 1343 18 8 26 1174548 1451648 11 Full operation 350000 1470000 275757 1192901 1343 17 9 26 1172254 1449354 12 Full operation 350000 1470000 275757 1192901 1343 16 10 26 1169960 1447060 13 Full operation 350000 1470000 275757 1192901 1343 15 11 26 1167666 1444766 14 Full operation 350000 1470000 275757 1192901 1343 14 12 26 1165372 1442472 15 Full operation 350000 1470000 275757 1192901 1343 13 13 26 1163078 1440177 16 Full operation 350000 1470000 275757 1192901 1343 12 14 26 1160784 1437883 17 Full operation 350000 1470000 275757 1192901 1343 11 15 26 1158490 1435589 18 Full operation 350000 1470000 275757 1192901 1343 10 16 26 1156196 1433295 19 Full operation 350000 1470000 275757 1192901 1343 9 17 26 1153902 1431001 20 Full operation 350000 1470000 275757 1192901 1343 8 18 26 1151608 1428707 21 Full operation 350000 1470000 275757 1192901 1343 7 19 26 1149314 1426413 22 Ramp-down and closure 175000 735000 137878 596450 671 0 13 13 566627.8 705177.5 23 Ramp-down and closure 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total: 30870000 Total: 30404310  158  Notes for Table B.3: It is assumed that all emissions from transportation come from the 26 haul trucks (the number of haul trucks at Highland Valley Copper Mine). Half of the trucks are in operation at the end of the first year (half-way through the ramp-up period). Emissions from each original truck are found by dividing emissions from transportation by 26 (45,880.79 GHG per truck). This figure is reduced by 5% (43,586.75 GHG per retrofitted truck). In year three, one truck is retrofitted. Another truck is retrofitted each subsequent year. The new emissions from transport are found by summing the number of active original trucks times the GHG per truck, and the number of active retrofitted trucks times the GHG per retrofitted truck. Half-way through the ramp-down period (end of year 22), half of the trucks are used and all 13 of these trucks are retrofitted. All other aspects of the base model (i.e. energy and mining emissions) are maintained. 159  Table B.4: Metal Mine with Increasingly Efficient Haul Truck Fleet (25%) Year Mine Cycle Stage Tonnage GHG emissions per year CO2e GHG from energy GHG from transportation GHG from mining # of original haul trucks # of new trucks total trucks new transport (25%) new total GHG with 5% more efficient fleet 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 construction/start-up 175000 735000 137878 596450 671 13 0 13 596450 735000 2 construction/start-up 350000 1470000 275757 1192901 1343 26 0 26 1192901 1470000 3 Full operation 350000 1470000 275757 1192901 1343 25 1 26 1181430 1458530 4 Full operation 350000 1470000 275757 1192901 1343 24 2 26 1169960 1447060 5 Full operation 350000 1470000 275757 1192901 1343 23 3 26 1158490 1435589 6 Full operation 350000 1470000 275757 1192901 1343 22 4 26 1147020 1424119 7 Full operation 350000 1470000 275757 1192901 1343 21 5 26 1135550 1412649 8 Full operation 350000 1470000 275757 1192901 1343 20 6 26 1124079 1401179 9 Full operation 350000 1470000 275757 1192901 1343 19 7 26 1112609 1389709 10 Full operation 350000 1470000 275757 1192901 1343 18 8 26 1101139 1378238 11 Full operation 350000 1470000 275757 1192901 1343 17 9 26 1089669 1366768 12 Full operation 350000 1470000 275757 1192901 1343 16 10 26 1078199 1355298 13 Full operation 350000 1470000 275757 1192901 1343 15 11 26 1066728 1343828 14 Full operation 350000 1470000 275757 1192901 1343 14 12 26 1055258 1332358 15 Full operation 350000 1470000 275757 1192901 1343 13 13 26 1043788 1320887 16 Full operation 350000 1470000 275757 1192901 1343 12 14 26 1032318 1309417 17 Full operation 350000 1470000 275757 1192901 1343 11 15 26 1020848 1297947 18 Full operation 350000 1470000 275757 1192901 1343 10 16 26 1009377 1286477 19 Full operation 350000 1470000 275757 1192901 1343 9 17 26 997907 1275007 20 Full operation 350000 1470000 275757 1192901 1343 8 18 26 986437 1263536 21 Full operation 350000 1470000 275757 1192901 1343 7 19 26 974966 1252066 22 Ramp-down and closure 175000 735000 137878 596450 671 0 13 13 447338 585887 23 Ramp-down and closure 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total: 30870000 Total: 28541550  Notes for Table B.4: This is similar to table B.3, but instead of 5%, and emissions reduction of 25% is used. Thus, the number of retrofitted trucks is multiplied by 34,410.59 (GHG from original truck, less 25%). All other aspects are the same as Table B.3. 160  Table B.5: Typical Coal Mine - Increasingly Efficient Fleet of Trucks (5%) Year Mine Cycle Stage Tonnage GHG emissions per year CO2e GHG from energy GHG from transportation GHG from mining # of original haul trucks # of new trucks total trucks new transport (5%) new total GHG with 5% more efficient fleet 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 construction/start-up 1800000 108000 37856 35813 34331 15 0 15 35813 108000 2 construction/start-up 3600000 216000 75712 71625 68662 30 0 30 71625 216000 3 Full operation 3600000 216000 75712 71625 68662 29 1 30 71506 215881 4 Full operation 3600000 216000 75712 71625 68662 28 2 30 71387 215761 5 Full operation 3600000 216000 75712 71625 68662 27 3 30 71267 215642 6 Full operation 3600000 216000 75712 71625 68662 26 4 30 71148 215522 7 Full operation 3600000 216000 75712 71625 68662 25 5 30 71029 215403 8 Full operation 3600000 216000 75712 71625 68662 24 6 30 70909 215284 9 Full operation 3600000 216000 75712 71625 68662 23 7 30 70790 215164 10 Full operation 3600000 216000 75712 71625 68662 22 8 30 70670 215045 11 Full operation 3600000 216000 75712 71625 68662 21 9 30 70551 214926 12 Full operation 3600000 216000 75712 71625 68662 20 10 30 70432 214806 13 Full operation 3600000 216000 75712 71625 68662 19 11 30 70312 214687 14 Full operation 3600000 216000 75712 71625 68662 18 12 30 70193 214567 15 Full operation 3600000 216000 75712 71625 68662 17 13 30 70074 214448 16 Full operation 3600000 216000 75712 71625 68662 16 14 30 69954 214329 17 Full operation 3600000 216000 75712 71625 68662 15 15 30 69835 214209 18 Full operation 3600000 216000 75712 71625 68662 14 16 30 69715 214090 19 Full operation 3600000 216000 75712 71625 68662 13 17 30 69596 213971 20 Full operation 3600000 216000 75712 71625 68662 12 18 30 69477 213851 21 Full operation 3600000 216000 75712 71625 68662 11 19 30 69357 213732 22 Ramp-down and closure 1800000 108000 37856 35813 34331 0 15 15 34022 106209 23 Ramp-down and closure 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total: 4536000 Total: 4511528 161  Notes for Table B.5: This is the same as the model summarised in Table B.3, but data from the coal mine model is used. It is assumed that all emissions from transportation come from the 30 haul trucks (the average number of haul trucks at operating coal mines in British Columbia). Half of the trucks are in operation at the end of the first year (half-way through the ramp-up period). Emissions from each original truck are found by dividing emissions from transportation by 30 (2,387.52 GHG per truck). This figure is reduced by 5% (2,268.14 GHG per retrofitted truck). In year three, one truck is retrofitted. Another truck is retrofitted each subsequent year. The new emissions from transport are found by summing the number of active original trucks times the GHG per truck, and the number of active retrofitted trucks times the GHG per retrofitted truck. Half-way through the ramp-down period (end of year 22), half of the trucks are used and all 15 of these trucks are retrofitted. All other aspects of the base model (i.e. energy and mining emissions) are maintained. 162  Table B.6: Typical Coal Mine - Increasingly Efficient Fleet of Trucks (25%) Year Mine Cycle Stage Tonnage GHG emissions per year CO2e GHG from energy GHG from transportation GHG from mining # of original haul trucks # of new trucks total trucks new transport (25%) new total GHG with 25% more efficient fleet 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 construction/start-up 1800000 108000 37856 35813 34331 15 0 15 35813 108000 2 construction/start-up 3600000 216000 75712 71625 68662 30 0 30 71625 216000 3 Full operation 3600000 216000 75712 71625 68662 29 1 30 71506 215403 4 Full operation 3600000 216000 75712 71625 68662 28 2 30 71387 214806 5 Full operation 3600000 216000 75712 71625 68662 27 3 30 71267 214209 6 Full operation 3600000 216000 75712 71625 68662 26 4 30 71148 213612 7 Full operation 3600000 216000 75712 71625 68662 25 5 30 71029 213016 8 Full operation 3600000 216000 75712 71625 68662 24 6 30 70909 212419 9 Full operation 3600000 216000 75712 71625 68662 23 7 30 70790 211822 10 Full operation 3600000 216000 75712 71625 68662 22 8 30 70670 211225 11 Full operation 3600000 216000 75712 71625 68662 21 9 30 70551 210628 12 Full operation 3600000 216000 75712 71625 68662 20 10 30 70432 210031 13 Full operation 3600000 216000 75712 71625 68662 19 11 30 70312 209434 14 Full operation 3600000 216000 75712 71625 68662 18 12 30 70193 208837 15 Full operation 3600000 216000 75712 71625 68662 17 13 30 70074 208241 16 Full operation 3600000 216000 75712 71625 68662 16 14 30 69954 207644 17 Full operation 3600000 216000 75712 71625 68662 15 15 30 69835 207047 18 Full operation 3600000 216000 75712 71625 68662 14 16 30 69715 206450 19 Full operation 3600000 216000 75712 71625 68662 13 17 30 69596 205853 20 Full operation 3600000 216000 75712 71625 68662 12 18 30 69477 205256 21 Full operation 3600000 216000 75712 71625 68662 11 19 30 69357 204659 22 Ramp-down and closure 1800000 108000 37856 35813 34331 0 15 15 34022 99047 23 Ramp-down and closure 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total: 4536000 Total: 4413640 Notes for Table B.6: This is similar to table B.5, but instead of 5%, and emissions reduction of 25% is used. Thus, the number of retrofitted trucks is multiplied by 1,790.64 (GHG from original truck, less 25%). All other aspects are the same as Table B.5. 163  Table B.7: Typical Coal Mine: No Use of Coal for Energy Year Original GHG emissions per year CO2e GHG from energy GHG from transportati on GHG from mining GHG from coal (original) GHG from Natural Gas (original) GHG from purchased electricity (original) MJ of coal (original) MJ of natural gas (original) Total MJ New GHG from nat. gas New GHG from energy (no coal) New total GHG (no coal) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 108000 37856 35813 34331 21600 10800 5456 864000 432000 1296000 18144 23600 93744 2 216000 75712 71625 68662 43200 21600 10912 1728000 864000 2592000 36288 47200 187488 3 216000 75712 71625 68662 43200 21600 10912 1728000 864000 2592000 36288 47200 187488 4 216000 75712 71625 68662 43200 21600 10912 1728000 864000 2592000 36288 47200 187488 5 216000 75712 71625 68662 43200 21600 10912 1728000 864000 2592000 36288 47200 187488 6 216000 75712 71625 68662 43200 21600 10912 1728000 864000 2592000 36288 47200 187488 7 216000 75712 71625 68662 43200 21600 10912 1728000 864000 2592000 36288 47200 187488 8 216000 75712 71625 68662 43200 21600 10912 1728000 864000 2592000 36288 47200 187488 9 216000 75712 71625 68662 43200 21600 10912 1728000 864000 2592000 36288 47200 187488 10 216000 75712 71625 68662 43200 21600 10912 1728000 864000 2592000 36288 47200 187488 11 216000 75712 71625 68662 43200 21600 10912 1728000 864000 2592000 36288 47200 187488 12 216000 75712 71625 68662 43200 21600 10912 1728000 864000 2592000 36288 47200 187488 13 216000 75712 71625 68662 43200 21600 10912 1728000 864000 2592000 36288 47200 187488 14 216000 75712 71625 68662 43200 21600 10912 1728000 864000 2592000 36288 47200 187488 15 216000 75712 71625 68662 43200 21600 10912 1728000 864000 2592000 36288 47200 187488 16 216000 75712 71625 68662 43200 21600 10912 1728000 864000 2592000 36288 47200 187488 17 216000 75712 71625 68662 43200 21600 10912 1728000 864000 2592000 36288 47200 187488 18 216000 75712 71625 68662 43200 21600 10912 1728000 864000 2592000 36288 47200 187488 19 216000 75712 71625 68662 43200 21600 10912 1728000 864000 2592000 36288 47200 187488 20 216000 75712 71625 68662 43200 21600 10912 1728000 864000 2592000 36288 47200 187488 21 216000 75712 71625 68662 43200 21600 10912 1728000 864000 2592000 36288 47200 187488 22 108000 37856 35813 34331 21600 10800 5456 864000 432000 1296000 18144 23600 93744 23 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total: 4536000  Total: 3937248  164  Notes for Table B.7: In this model, the emissions from transport and mining are maintained and the emissions from energy are altered. Confidential data from Teck Resources Ltd. show that 20% of total GHG emissions from the average coal mine in British Columbia (or 43,200 tonnes of CO2e per year) is from coal, 10% from natural gas (21,600 tonnes of  CO2e per year) and 5% from purchased electricity (10,912 CO2e per year). Some models may not include this figure because it may not be considered direct emissions. It is included here because it is part of the data from Teck Resources Ltd.  This model assumes energy consumption is constant over the life of the mine and the exclusive use of natural gas is from the start of the mine. It uses a carbon intensity of fourteen kilograms CO2e per mega-joule for natural gas, and 25 kilogram CO2e per mega joule for coal based on the NETL's (2007) findings. The conversion is as follows in equations B.1 and B.2.         Tonnes of CO2e from coal per year of full operations (43,200) * 1000kg per tonne 25 Kg CO2e  per 1 MJ of energy = 1,728,000 MJ of energy/year from coal  (Equation B.1) Tonnes of CO2e from natural gas per year of full operations (21,600) * 1000kg per tonne 14 Kg CO2e  per 1 MJ of energy = 864,000 MJ of energy/year from natural gas  (Equation B.2) The total energy per year from both coal and natural gas is 2,592,000 MJ. If all of this energy is sourced from natural gas, using 14 kg CO2e per MJ the total the new GHG from natural gas is 36,288 tonnes of CO2e. If we add the 10,912 tonnes of CO2e from electricity we get a total of 47,200 tonnes of CO2e. In the ramp-up and ramp-down periods, it is assumed that the emissions are one half of this figure (i.e. 23,600 tonnes of CO2e). 165  Table B.8: Typical Coal Mine: 50% Less Coal Used for Energy Year Original GHG emissions per year CO2e GHG from energy GHG from transportation GHG from mining GHG from coal (original) GHG from Natural Gas (original) GHG from elec. (original) New GHG from coal New GHG from nat. gas New GHG from energy (50% less coal) New total GHG (50% less coal) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 108000 37856 35813 34331 21600 10800 5456 10800 12096 28352 98496 2 216000 75712 71625 68662 43200 21600 10912 21600 24192 56704 196992 3 216000 75712 71625 68662 43200 21600 10912 21600 24192 56704 196992 4 216000 75712 71625 68662 43200 21600 10912 21600 24192 56704 196992 5 216000 75712 71625 68662 43200 21600 10912 21600 24192 56704 196992 6 216000 75712 71625 68662 43200 21600 10912 21600 24192 56704 196992 7 216000 75712 71625 68662 43200 21600 10912 21600 24192 56704 196992 8 216000 75712 71625 68662 43200 21600 10912 21600 24192 56704 196992 9 216000 75712 71625 68662 43200 21600 10912 21600 24192 56704 196992 10 216000 75712 71625 68662 43200 21600 10912 21600 24192 56704 196992 11 216000 75712 71625 68662 43200 21600 10912 21600 24192 56704 196992 12 216000 75712 71625 68662 43200 21600 10912 21600 24192 56704 196992 13 216000 75712 71625 68662 43200 21600 10912 21600 24192 56704 196992 14 216000 75712 71625 68662 43200 21600 10912 21600 24192 56704 196992 15 216000 75712 71625 68662 43200 21600 10912 21600 24192 56704 196992 16 216000 75712 71625 68662 43200 21600 10912 21600 24192 56704 196992 17 216000 75712 71625 68662 43200 21600 10912 21600 24192 56704 196992 18 216000 75712 71625 68662 43200 21600 10912 21600 24192 56704 196992 19 216000 75712 71625 68662 43200 21600 10912 21600 24192 56704 196992 20 216000 75712 71625 68662 43200 21600 10912 21600 24192 56704 196992 21 216000 75712 71625 68662 43200 21600 10912 21600 24192 56704 196992 22 108000 37856 35813 34331 21600 10800 5456 10800 12096 28352 98496 23 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4536000  Total: 4136832   166  Notes for Table B.8: This is the same as the model summarised in Table B.7 except that instead of completely removing coal use for energy, the amount of coal used for energy is reduced by 50%. In this model, the emissions from transport and mining are maintained and the emissions from energy are altered. The same original tonnes of GHG sources from energy (43,200 tonnes of CO2e per year from coal, 21,600 tonnes of CO2e per year from natural gas, and 10,912 CO2e per year from purchased electricity) and carbon intensities for coal (25 kg CO2e per MJ) and natural gas (14 kg CO2e per MJ) that are used again in this model. The original amount of energy from coal (1,728,000 MJ) is divided in half (864,000 MJ). This number is then converted back into CO2e for coal (21,600 CO2e per year). The other half of MJ from coal is added to the total energy from natural gas (864,000 MJ + 864,000 MJ = 1,728,000 MJ). The fact that these two figures (864,000 MJ) is a coincidence. This is then converted using 14 kg CO2e / MJ such that 24,192 CO2e is emitted each year from natural gas for energy. The total GHG from energy is thus 21,600 CO2e (from coal) + 24,192CO2e (from natural gas) + 10,912 CO2e (from purchased electricity) = 56,704 CO2e.  In the ramp-up and ramp-down periods, it is assumed that the emissions are one half of this figure (i.e. 28,352 tonnes of CO2e).

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