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Integrated watershed management : China-wide analysis and a case study in the Min River Basin, Fujian,… Wang, Guangyu 2009

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INTEGRATED WATERSHED MANAGEMENT: CHINA-WIDE ANALYSIS AND A CASE STUDY IN THE MIN RIVER BASIN, FUJIAN, CHINA  by  GUANGYU WANG  A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF  DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY  in  The Faculty of Graduate Studies  (Forestry)  THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA  (Vancouver)  October, 2009  © Guangyu Wang, 2009  ABSTRACT China‘s watershed management policy and its forest tenure have undergone remarkable changes since the devastating floods of 1998. The government has launched key national programs and forest policy reforms, such as large-scale plantation and reforestation, logging bans in natural forests, land ownership reforms, and comprehensive flood control systems. The scale and investment of these programs are already producing tangible benefits to forest cover, the forest industry and rural livelihoods, yet the transition of China‘s forestry sector to a sustainable operation remains in doubt. Watershed issues are complex and multidimensional. Forest management was for a long time viewed as contributing to environmental protection. However, forestry can be both positive and negative. Sustainable forest management is critical for forest-dependent communities in a forestdominated watershed such as that of the Min River. The research presented here uses the Min River Watershed (Fujian, China) to examine aspects of watershed sustainability. Several topics are examined, including the effects of conventional forest practices on land degradation; the current state of bamboo forest resources and management in the watershed and the role of the bamboo forest industry in social development, economic growth and ecosystem protection; the impact of infrastructure development on soil erosion; patterns of land-use change in the Min River over the last 20 years using Landsat imagery; and public perceptions of watershed management in the watershed. This work has been placed into a broader context by examining current forest policies and their relation to environmental protection programs in China. Particular emphasis has been placed on the evaluation of forest policy and national programs to combat flooding. Watersheds are holistic systems where social, cultural, economic and environmental issues interact. Forestry is only one of several factors affecting watershed sustainability. Watershed management is a complex, dynamic and continually improving process. It needs to bring together personnel from diverse disciplines, to integrate data from multiple dimensions and to develop a comprehensive management tool that will enable managers, stakeholders and third party interest groups to work together more effectively in solving watershed problems.  ii  TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT ................................................................................................................................................................ii TABLE OF CONTENTS ......................................................................................................................................... iii LIST OF TABLES ....................................................................................................................................................vii LIST OF FIGURES...................................................................................................................................................ix PREFACE ..................................................................................................................................................................xi ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ................................................................................................................................... xiii CO-AUTHORSHIP STATEMENT ....................................................................................................................... xiv 1  2  INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................................ 1 1.1  SUSTAINABLE WATERSHED MANAGEMENT................................................................................... 2  1.2  THE MIN RIVER WATERSHED .............................................................................................................. 8  1.3  OBJECTIVES ............................................................................................................................................ 12  1.4  STRUCTURE OF THE THESIS .............................................................................................................. 13  1.5  REFERENCES........................................................................................................................................... 16  WATERSHED MANAGEMENT IN CHINA: PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE DEVELOPMENT.... 21 2.1  INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................................................................... 21  2.2  HISTORY OF WATERSHED MANAGEMENT IN CHINA ................................................................ 21  2.3  MODERN WATERSHED MANAGEMENT IN CHINA ....................................................................... 23  2.4 CURRENT PRIORITIES AND ISSUES FOR WATERSHED MANAGEMENT IN CHINA ........... 25 2.4.1 Water resource deficit and reallocation .............................................................................................. 25 2.4.2 Floods and droughts ........................................................................................................................... 26 2.4.3 Pollution and the degradation of ecosystems ..................................................................................... 26 2.4.4 Institutional issues .............................................................................................................................. 27 2.4.5 Lack of public participation................................................................................................................ 27 2.5 ASSESSMENT OF CHINA’S WATER RESOURCES STRESS ........................................................... 28 2.5.1 Water stress assessment indictors ....................................................................................................... 28 2.5.2 Hierarchical Cluster Analysis: ............................................................................................................ 33 2.6 THREE CASES OF INTEGRATED WATERSHED MANAGEMENT IN CHINA ........................... 36 2.6.1 The Mountain–River–Lake (MRL) program of Jiangxi province ...................................................... 36 2.6.2 Min River Watershed management, Fujian ........................................................................................ 39 2.6.3 The Tai Lake experience..................................................................................................................... 42  3  2.7  INTEGRATED WATERSHED DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES ....................................................... 45  2.8  CONCLUSION .......................................................................................................................................... 46  2.9  REFERENCES........................................................................................................................................... 47  MAJOR CHALLENGES FACING THE SUSTAINABILITY OF THE FOREST SECTOR IN CHINA 52 3.1  INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................................................................... 52  3.2  CHINA’S FORESTRY IN A NEW CRITICAL TRANSITION ERA ................................................... 53  3.3  MAJOR ISSUES AND CHALLENGES .................................................................................................. 57 iii  3.3.1 3.3.2 3.3.3 3.3.4 3.3.5  China‘s demand for wood ................................................................................................................... 57 The urgent need for restoration strategies .......................................................................................... 58 The structure of forestland ownership ................................................................................................ 59 The plantation program ...................................................................................................................... 60 The impact on China‘s rural poor ....................................................................................................... 62  3.4 THE ROOTS OF THE ISSUES ................................................................................................................ 64 3.4.1 The Central Government .................................................................................................................... 65 3.4.2 Local governments ............................................................................................................................. 65 3.4.3 The general public .............................................................................................................................. 65 3.4.4 Rural residents and forest-dependent farmers .................................................................................... 66 3.5 CHINA’S FUTURE WOOD REQUIREMENTS .................................................................................... 66 3.5.1 The projection of China wood products production ........................................................................... 66 3.5.2 The projection of China‘s consumption and trade deficit ................................................................... 68 3.6 IS THERE A SOLUTION? ....................................................................................................................... 70 3.6.1 New opportunities for forestry ........................................................................................................... 70 3.6.2 Further reforms ................................................................................................................................... 71 3.6.3 Future forestry plans ........................................................................................................................... 72  4  3.7  CONCLUSIONS ........................................................................................................................................ 73  3.8  REFERENCES........................................................................................................................................... 75  THE DEVELOPMENT OF CHINA’S FORESTRY IN THE 21ST CENTURY....................................... 81 4.1 THE SIX KEY FORESTRY PROGRAMS ............................................................................................. 82 4.1.1 Advances and successes ..................................................................................................................... 82 4.1.2 Problems and obstacles ...................................................................................................................... 85 4.2  OWNERSHIP REFORMS AND AUXILIARY POLICIES ................................................................... 86  4.3  FUTURE FOREST MANAGEMENT STRUCTURES.......................................................................... 86  4.4  REFERENCES........................................................................................................................................... 88  5 ACHIEVING SUSTAINABLE RURAL DEVELOPMENT IN SOUTHERN CHINA: THE CONTRIBUTION OF BAMBOO FORESTRY .................................................................................................... 89 5.1  INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................................................................... 89  5.2 THE DEVELOPMENT OF BAMBOO IN CHINA ................................................................................ 89 5.2.1 Development of bamboo forests and the bamboo industry ................................................................ 89 5.2.2 Increase in the quality and quantity of bamboo forest ........................................................................ 91 5.2.3 Expanding utilization of bamboo ....................................................................................................... 92 5.2.4 Expansion of bamboo shoot production ............................................................................................. 92 5.3  METHODOLOGY .................................................................................................................................... 92  5.4 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION ................................................................................................................. 95 5.4.1 Sustainable forest management and rural development ..................................................................... 95 5.4.2 Major issues for sustainable bamboo development .......................................................................... 100 5.5  CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS.................................................................................. 103  5.6  REFERENCES......................................................................................................................................... 106  6 WATERSHED PATTERN AND CHANGES IN LAND USE IN THE MIN RIVER WATERSHED, FUJIAN ................................................................................................................................................................... 108 6.1  INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................................... 108  6.2 METHODS ............................................................................................................................................... 108 6.2.1 Study area ......................................................................................................................................... 108 6.2.2 Spatial data acquisition, classification and accuracy analysis .......................................................... 109 6.2.3 Landscape quantification .................................................................................................................. 110 iv  6.2.4  Identification of the impact of land-use change ............................................................................... 111  6.3 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION ............................................................................................................... 111 6.3.1 Accuracy assessment ........................................................................................................................ 111 6.3.2 Landscape metrics selection and analysis ........................................................................................ 116 6.3.3 Forest land change and associated policy changes in the last twenty years ..................................... 120 6.3.4 Detection of land-use and land-cover dynamic changes .................................................................. 121 6.3.5 The social and economic impact of land use change on the watershed ............................................ 130 6.3.6 The comparison of statistical data and the Landsat-derived data ..................................................... 131 6.4  CONCLUSIONS AND SUGGESTIONS ............................................................................................... 133  6.5  REFERENCES......................................................................................................................................... 134  7 EXTENT OF SOIL EROSION ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE-SCALE INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT AND POSSIBLE AMELIORATION MEASURES ............................................................. 136 7.1  INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................................... 136  7.2 METHODS ............................................................................................................................................... 137 7.2.1 Experimental assessment of soil erosion .......................................................................................... 137 7.2.2 Survey of large-scale infrastructure project development sites ........................................................ 140 7.3 RESULTS.................................................................................................................................................. 140 7.3.1 Soil erosion in the experimental plots .............................................................................................. 140 7.3.2 Survey of large-scale project development sites............................................................................... 144 7.3.3 Processes of soil erosion at the construction sites ............................................................................ 150 7.4  DISCUSSION ........................................................................................................................................... 150  7.5  CONCLUSIONS ...................................................................................................................................... 153  7.6  REFERENCES......................................................................................................................................... 154  8 PUBLIC AWARENESS AND PERCEPTIONS OF WATERSHED MANAGEMENT IN THE MIN RIVER AREA, FUJIAN, CHINA ......................................................................................................................... 156 8.1  INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................................... 156  8.2 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY ........................................................................................................... 157 8.2.1 Research area .................................................................................................................................... 157 8.2.2 Economic characteristics of the watershed ....................................................................................... 158 8.2.3 Survey method and data analysis ..................................................................................................... 160 8.2.4 Survey methods and target research population ............................................................................... 160 8.2.5 Response rate, data treatment and analysis ...................................................................................... 161 8.3 RESULTS.................................................................................................................................................. 162 8.3.1 Analysis of responses ....................................................................................................................... 162 8.3.2 Understanding of the general concept of a watershed ...................................................................... 164 8.3.3 Awareness of watershed issues ......................................................................................................... 164 8.3.4 Understanding of the causes of watershed problems ........................................................................ 167 8.3.5 The importance of forest management ............................................................................................. 171 8.3.6 The role of the governments in watershed development .................................................................. 174 8.3.7 The willingness to participate in watershed conservation ................................................................ 177 8.3.8 The willingness to contribute to watershed conservation ................................................................. 177 8.3.9 Suggestions for future development ................................................................................................. 177 8.4  DISCUSSION ........................................................................................................................................... 179  8.5  CONCLUSIONS ...................................................................................................................................... 180  8.6  REFERENCES......................................................................................................................................... 182  9 WATERSHED SUSTAINABILITY: STRATEGIC AND TACTICAL LEVEL ASSESSMENT IN THE MIN RIVER WATERSHED, CHINA .................................................................................................................. 184 v  9.1  INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................................... 184  9.2  STUDY AREA .......................................................................................................................................... 185  9.3 METHODOLOGY .................................................................................................................................. 186 9.3.1 Sustainable development indices ...................................................................................................... 186 9.3.2 Sustainable Forest Management Certification Auditing Systems ..................................................... 190 9.3.3 The integration of SFMCAS with RSDA ......................................................................................... 192 9.4 RESULTS.................................................................................................................................................. 193 9.4.1 Regional Sustainable Development Assessment .............................................................................. 193 9.4.2 SFMCAS analysis ............................................................................................................................ 198 9.5 DISCUSSION ........................................................................................................................................... 203 9.5.1 Land-use competition ....................................................................................................................... 203 9.5.2 Different processes and priorities ..................................................................................................... 203 9.5.3 Increasing pollution levels ................................................................................................................ 204 9.5.4 Urban sprawl and infrastructure construction................................................................................... 204 9.5.5 Population patterns ........................................................................................................................... 204  10  9.6  CONCLUSIONS ...................................................................................................................................... 205  9.7  REFERENCES......................................................................................................................................... 206  CONCLUSIONS ........................................................................................................................................... 209 10.1  SUMMARY RESULTS ....................................................................................................................... 209  10.2  FUTURE MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES IN THE WATERSHED............................................. 211  10.3  FUTURE RESEARCH ....................................................................................................................... 211  10.4  REFERENCES .................................................................................................................................... 213  APPENDIX I. MAIL SURVEY RESEARCH QUESTIONNAIRE ............................................................. 214 APPENDIX II. CERTIFICATE OF APPROVAL ......................................................................................... 234  vi  LIST OF TABLES Table 1-1. GDP of the Min River Watershed (2006). Units are in 100 million Yuan (1US$=8 Yuan). (Adapted from Fujian Province Bureau of Statistics, 2007). .............................................................................................................. 10 Table 2-1. Standardized water stress indicators in different regions*. (Adapted from the China Sustainable Development Strategy Report, 2007). ........................................................................................................................ 31 Table 2-2. Cluster grouping for water stress in Mainland China. ............................................................................... 35 Table 2-3. Distribution of water resources in the Tai Lake catchment (Adapted from Yang et al., 2004). ................ 43 Table 3-1 Categories of stakeholder for environmental issues in China .................................................................... 64 Table 3-2. Planned forest investment in the period 2006–2010. Units are billion Yuan. (Adapted from National Ecological Environmental Construction Development Plan and the 11th Five-year Plan for Forestry, Research Group of Sustainable Forestry Development, 2003). ................................................................................................. 73 Table 3-3. Planned forest investment between 2011 and 2015. Units are billion Yuan. (Adapted from National Ecological Environmental Construction Development Plan and the 11th Five-year Plan for Forestry, Research Group of Sustainable Forestry Development, 2003). ................................................................................................. 73 Table 4-1. Investment in the six Key Forestry Programs in the period of 2000–2005 Assessment. Units are in 10 thousand Yuan (RMB). (Adapted from State Forestry Administration, 2000–2006; State Forestry Administration, 1993–2006; and the Research Group of Sustainable Forestry Development, 2003). ................................................. 81 Table 4-2. The six Key Programs in forestry. (Adapted from State Forestry Administration, 2000–2006; Research Group of Sustainable Forestry Development, 2003). ................................................................................................. 83 Table 5-1. Distribution of forest and bamboo in China. Source: Data derived from the Fifth National Continuous Forest Inventory Database 2005. ................................................................................................................................ 91 Table 5-2. Type of interviewees in each of the four counties. .................................................................................... 93 Table 5-3. Summary of the interview questions. ........................................................................................................ 94 Table 5-4. Management models for the development of a sustainable bamboo industry. .......................................... 97 Table 5-5. Bamboo development stages in China. ..................................................................................................... 98 Table 5-6. Changing patterns of bamboo management before and after implementing the participatory management (1998–2003). .............................................................................................................................................................. 99 Table 5-7. Current taxes for bamboo timber. ............................................................................................................ 101 Table 5-8. Classification of the bamboo processing industry. Revenues are in 10,000 RMB. ................................. 102 Table 5-9. Sources of training for farmers. ............................................................................................................... 103 Table 6-1. 2003 Accuracy Assessment. (Overall Classification Accuracy = 87.9%, Overall Kappa Statistics = 0.865). .................................................................................................................................................................................. 111 Table 6-2. 2000 Accuracy Assessment. (Overall Classification Accuracy = 84.5%, Overall Kappa Statistics = 0.833). .................................................................................................................................................................................. 112 Table 6-3. 1986 Accuracy Assessment. (Overall Classification Accuracy = 84%, Overall Kappa Statistics = 0.822). .................................................................................................................................................................................. 112 Table 6-4. 2003 Confusion Matrix. .......................................................................................................................... 113 Table 6-5. 2000 Confusion Matrix. .......................................................................................................................... 114 Table 6-6. 1986 Confusion Matrix. .......................................................................................................................... 115 Table 6-7. Fragstats metrics included in the analysis. .............................................................................................. 117 Table 6-8. The general trend of each metric by land-use category. .......................................................................... 119 Table 6-9. The general trend in each metric at the landscape level. ......................................................................... 120 Table 6-10. Changes in the ten land cover types between 1986 and 2003. Units are in hectares. ........................... 123 vii  Table 6-11. Analysis of land cover transition matrix. ............................................................................................... 124 Table 6-12. Social and economic development in the Min River Watershed since 1990. (Adapted from the Fujian Provincial Bureau of Statistics, 1991, 2001 and 2004). ........................................................................................... 130 Table 7-1. Basic site characteristics of the experimental plots. Further information is provided in the text. ........... 139 Table 7-2. Monthly surface runoff depth in the four treatments. .............................................................................. 141 Table 7-3. Monthly erosion in the four treatments. .................................................................................................. 142 Table 7-4. Relationship between runoff depth and rainfall in the experimental plots. ............................................. 143 Table 7-5. Relationship between soil erosion and rainfall in the experimental plots. .............................................. 144 Table 7-6. The impact of construction projects on the environment of Fujian ......................................................... 145 Table 7-7. Comparison of the impacts of freeway and railway construction. .......................................................... 147 Table 7-8. Comparison of the soil erosion associated with the construction of hydro and thermal power stations. 147 Table 7-9. Investment in soil and water protection in large-scale projects conducted in Fujian, China, between 1999 and 2004. .................................................................................................................................................................. 149 Table 8-1. Min River Watershed jurisdiction. .......................................................................................................... 158 Table 8-2. Total population in the Min River Watershed at the end of 2004. Units are in 10,000. (Adapted from Fujian Provincial Bureau of Statistics 2005). ........................................................................................................... 159 Table 8-3. Gross Domestic Product at the end of 2004. Units are in million Yuan. (Adapted from Fujian Provincial Bureau of Statistics 2005). ....................................................................................................................................... 159 Table 8-4. Structure and components of the questionnaire. ...................................................................................... 161 Table 8-5. Response distribution by reach. .............................................................................................................. 162 Table 8-6. Characteristics of the questionnaire respondents. ................................................................................... 163 Table 8-7. Opinions of respondents about the direction of change in the watershed environment over the past 30 years. ........................................................................................................................................................................ 166 Table 8-8. Opinion of respondents about future environmental changes according to their relationship with the watershed. ................................................................................................................................................................ 167 Table 8-9. Respondents‘ perceptions of the frequency of particular forest practices (%). ....................................... 174 Table 9-1. Sustainable Development Index Level for temporal comparison (Source: Chen, 2004). ........................ 189 Table 9-2. Sustainable Development Index Level for the spatial comparison. ........................................................ 190 Table 9-3. Indicators and weights. ............................................................................................................................ 193 Table 9-4. Sustainable development index. .............................................................................................................. 194 Table 9-5. Indicators and weights. ............................................................................................................................ 197 Table 9-6. The index of comprehensive development by locations. ........................................................................ 197 Table 9-7. Summary of the result of the auditing criteria and indicators. ................................................................ 198 Table 9-8. Summary of the spatial differences of the various criteria. ..................................................................... 201  viii  LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1-1. The research area, located in northern Fujian, China ................................................................................ 9 Figure 1-2. Fujian ShuiKou Dam and Shuikou Hydropower Station. (Photo: Guangyu Wang 2002). ..................... 11 Figure 1-3. Flowchart for the research ....................................................................................................................... 14 Figure 2-1. The framework of water stress assessment in China (Adapted from the China Sustainable Development Strategy Report, 2007). .............................................................................................................................................. 30 Figure 2-2. The result of cluster analysis of water stress assessment in China .......................................................... 33 Figure 2-3. Map of water stress in China (Taiwan and the islands of the Southern China Sea are excluded due to lack of data). ............................................................................................................................................................... 34 Figure 3-1. Afforestation and regeneration since 1949. (Source: Adapted from data presented in the annual State Forestry Administration reports 1993–2006). ............................................................................................................ 54 Figure 3-2. Fixed-asset investment in forestry since 1949 in China. (Source: Adapted from data presented in the annual State Forestry Administration reports 1993–2006). ........................................................................................ 54 Figure 3-3. Annual production of timber in China since 1952. (Adapted from data presented in the annual State Forestry Administration reports 1993–2007). ............................................................................................................ 55 Figure 3-4. Import and export of wood products since 1996. (Adapted from data presented in the annual China Forestry Statistical Yearbooks 1997–2008). ............................................................................................................... 56 Figure 3-5. Actual and predicted forest cover of China, 1700–2050. (Adapted from He et al., 2007, and data presented in the annual reports of the State Forestry Administration 2000–2006)..................................................... 56 Figure 3-6. Simulation of China‘s log production under two projection models with three scenarios. ...................... 67 Figure 3-7. Projection of China‘s wood-based panel production over the next twenty years. ................................... 68 Figure 3-8. Projection of China‘s pulp and paper production over the next twenty years. ......................................... 68 Figure 3-9. Projection of China‘s imports of wood products over the next twenty years. ......................................... 69 Figure 3-10. Projection of China‘s imported pulp and paper products over the next twenty years. ........................... 69 Figure 3-11. China net trade projection over the next twenty years. .......................................................................... 70 Figure 4-1. Forest police patrol in a protected forest area. China has about 60,000 specially trained forest police to enforce policies such as the logging ban. Photo credit: Forest Police Bureau, State Forestry Administration.......... 85 Figure 5-1. Development of bamboo forest in China since 1977. (Data derived from China National Inventory and State Forestry Administration, 1997–1998, 1993–1988, 1989–2003, 1993–1998 and 1998–2003). ......................... 90 Figure 5-2. Annual bamboo production in China. Source: Data adapted from the China Forestry Statistical Yearbook (State Forestry Administration, 2007). ....................................................................................................... 91 Figure 5-3. Development of bamboo management indices since 1989 in Jianou City. (Data provided by the Jianou Forestry Bureau)......................................................................................................................................................... 96 Figure 5-4. A conceptual model for bamboo management and development. ......................................................... 104 Figure 6-1. Scree Plot for the 46 metrics in the Scree test. ...................................................................................... 116 Figure 6-2. Land cover changes in the four detected periods. .................................................................................. 123 Figure 6-3. Four period classified Landsat image. .................................................................................................. 129 Figure 6-4. The comparison of the ground survey data in 2000 with the Landsat-derived data for 2000. ............... 132 Figure 7-1. The growth in GDP in Fujian Province, derived from data published in the Fujian Statistical Yearbook (2006). ...................................................................................................................................................................... 137 Figure 7-2. The four treatments used in the soil erosion experiment in Dongmen, Jianou, Fujian. ......................... 138 Figure 7-3. The percentage of sediment and runoff during March to August in the experimental period. ............... 141 ix  Figure 7-4. Soil erosion in different types of construction portrayed as a function of unit investment. ................... 146 Figure 7-5. Monthly precipitation during 2001–2002, and monthly average during 1961–1990............................. 152 Figure 8-1. Overall opinions of respondents among the reaches on the watershed environmental situation. .......... 165 Figure 8-2. Opinions about the most important natural disasters in the past. ........................................................... 165 Figure 8-3. Opinion of respondents about future environmental changes in the watershed. .................................... 166 Figure 8-4. Level of concern about specific aspects of watershed management. ..................................................... 167 Figure 8-5. Sources of water pollution identified as important in the watershed. (Note: Respondents could indicate more than one source of pollution)........................................................................................................................... 168 Figure 8-6. Number of the respondents ranking each element as the most important source of pollution in the watershed. ................................................................................................................................................................ 168 Figure 8-7. Perceptions of the main causes of flooding in the watershed according to survey respondents. ........... 169 Figure 8-8. The main causes of soil erosion in the watershed according to the survey respondents. ....................... 169 Figure 8-9. Perceptions of the main causes of drought in the watershed according to the survey respondents. ...... 170 Figure 8-10. Major causes of the Pistia stratiotes L. outbreaks identified by survey respondents. ......................... 171 Figure 8-11. Comparison of the satisfaction with specific aspects of watershed forest management according to survey respondents. .................................................................................................................................................. 173 Figure 8-12. Approval rating for the twelve major government agencies dealing with watershed environmental protection according to survey respondents. ............................................................................................................ 176 Figure 8-13. The importance of seven practices related to good watershed management according to survey respondents. .............................................................................................................................................................. 178 Figure 8-14. The ranking given to planning according to survey respondents. ........................................................ 178 Figure 9-1. Flowchart for the SFMCAS approach (Adapted from ITTO, 2000). .................................................... 191 Figure 9-2. The integration of SFMCAS and RSDA. .............................................................................................. 192 Figure 9-3. The trend in watershed sustainability between 1991 and 2002.............................................................. 195 Figure 9-4. The watershed classification. ................................................................................................................. 196  x  PREFACE This dissertation follows a manuscript-based format that is constructed around eight related manuscripts of which I am the senior co-author. The major contribution in this dissertation has come from results of the Min River Watershed Project (MRWP) which was funded by Fujian government to fill a major knowledge gap about the linkage between sustainable forest management (SFM) and integrated watershed management. While each of the eight manuscripts deals with a key issue related to watershed management, they all adopt a SFM approach to promote integrated watershed management. This research work was motivated by the 1998 devastating flooding in China. In the summer of 1998, while I was still enjoying the beautiful weather of the Pacific Northwest and completing my business degree in Oregon, USA, I dedicated myself to be a facilitator in the globalization of China‘s forestry. At that moment, China was preparing intensively for its entry into the World Trade Organization. The Emerging Wood Markets Series of Conferences – China as an Emerging Wood Market – at the World Forest Institute in Portland, Oregon, attracted hundreds of entrepreneurs from North America and Asia. As one of the organisers, I felt that it was good timing for me to use my knowledge to help China‘s forestry sector to adapt globalization. However, that summer, devastating flooding affected much of China. The Yellow, Yangtze, Songhua, Nen, Zhu, Min, Gan, and Huai Rivers were paralysed. Millions of people fought to protect levées, cities, houses, and their lives. In the largest natural disaster in China of the 20th century, 3004 people were killed, and 29 provinces, 20 million ha. of land, 5 million houses and 223 million people were affected. The damage was estimated to be in excess of US$ 30 billion. As a direct result of this disaster, I decided to shift my career path to sustainable watershed management. After I was accepted as a PhD student to pursue my Environmental Science degree at the Oregon Graduate Institute of Science and Technology, I chose to go back to China to undertake field research, rather than undertaking a study that would be largely theoretical. During those four years of research, as one of the leaders in watershed management in the Fujian Provincial Government, I worked in a small watershed, namely the Jiulong River Watershed, in Zhangzhou, Fujian. This work started a program of forest restoration and sustainable development that was subsequently awarded the third prize in Science and Technology Progress Achievements by the Fujian Provincial Government. I then moved to the Min River Watershed, the largest watershed in Fujian Province, where I was supported by the Fujian Provincial Government and many international bodies, such as the World Bank. However, I knew that I was struggling to keep my knowledge of sustainable forest management and watershed management up to date, and my work was also being compromised by my inability to use advanced technologies such as GIS, remote sensing and a range of policy analysis and decision-making tools. As a result, I decided to join the Sustainable Forest Management Group at the University of British Columbia to continue my research. That explains who I am, how I came to be at UBC, and why I have undertaken the research that is detailed in this thesis. During the last five years, supported by my research team in Fujian, and helped by my ‗SFM Lab‘ colleagues at UBC, and particularly by my supervisor Professor John Innes, and by my academic advisory committee – Dr. Yongyuan Yin, Dr. Sarah Gergel and Dr. Markus Weiler, the research was completed in 2007 and awarded a Gold Prize in Science and Technology Progress Achievements by the Fujian Provincial Government in 2008 and nominated to the Ministry of xi  Science and Technology, China, for a national scientific award. Some of the results have already been adopted in provincial planning, specifically the Min River Watershed Water Environmental Planning (2005–2020), and the Strategic Plans for Environmental Protection of Fujian Province. The research was a collaborative effort, and what I have undertaken represents only a third of the overall project. This thesis presents the research that I led (watershed assessment and integration), and I would like to thank my colleagues, Professor Wei Hong and Dr. Hongfu Ye for their support and for sharing the results from their part of the research project with me.  xii  ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to take this opportunity to write some deep and beautiful words, the words from the bottom of my heart to convey my gratitude to all who have made my venture happen and my long desired dream to come true. First, I am grateful to the Min River – the mother river of the Fujianese. I love her peace and selflessness to nourish her children. While walking along the river bank of the Fuzhou Riverfront Park, watching and listening to the purring of the Min River, I seemed to see a mother embracing her children and reading to them a beautiful story. I love her prettiness, her generosity, and her. However, I fear her anger and her power that is sometimes used to punish our greediness and wrong-doing, and which has taught me how precious what I have is today, how to share my wealth with others and how to preserve the environment for our generation and for generations to come. First and foremost, I want to ―xie xie‖ (谢谢!) to Dr. John Innes, my supervisor for his great support. Without his help, this thesis would not have been possible. John, thank you so much for all your patience and tirelessness in helping me in all the time of research for and writing of this thesis. I am also grateful to Dr. Yin Yuanyong, Dr. Sarah Gergel, and Dr. Markus Weiler for their kindness, encouragement and support throughout my PhD program. When I found it hard to understand awkward concepts or the complex and often counter-intuitive rules involved in playing the games associated with this academic world, they have always been available to provide advice. My thanks also go to the faculty members at UBC forestry, where I took or audited almost all the graduate course under the ―FRST‖ category. I particularly want to thank Dr. Sarah Gergel, Dr. Markus Weiler, Dr. Nicholas Coops, Dr. Hamish Kimmins, Dr Valerie LeMay, Dr. David Tait, Dr. David Tindall and Dr. Stephen Sheppard for helping me with my course work. My research has greatly benefited from my improved understanding of watershed management, landscape ecology, social science, advanced statistics and remote sensing technology. I would like to thank my superior, Mr. Liu Dezhang, Executive Vice Governor of Fujian Province for his long-term support and friendship. I also would like to give all my thanks to my colleagues Professor Wei Hong, Executive Vice President of Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, and Dr. Hongfu Ye, Vice President of Fujian Academy of Forestry and my whole research team in Fujian. Without their kind help, I could not have accomplished so much. I sincerely thank the many anonymous referees for their extremely helpful comments on my earlier manuscripts that led to a great improvement in the quality of these eight papers. Lastly, I want to thank my research funding organizations – the Fujian Provincial Government, the Fujian Department of Science and Technology, the Fujian Natural Science Foundation, the Canadian Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council (SSHRC), the Mary and David Macaree Fellowship, the Namkoong Family Fellowship, and the Vandusen Graduate Fellowship. With their support, I was able to focus on my research.  xiii  CO-AUTHORSHIP STATEMENT Chapter 2: (Paper I: Watershed management in China: Past, present and future development)  I conducted the literature review, data analyses and manuscript preparation;  Dr. John Innes provided helpful discussion, clarified many of historical details, and improved the quality of the English. Chapter 3: (Paper II: Major challenges facing the sustainability of the forest sector in China)  I conducted the literature review, data analyses and manuscript preparation;  Dr. John Innes provided guidance and improved the quality of the paper;  Dr. Dai Shuanyou helped with forest policy reform data;  Dr. Sara Wu provided comments on the international wood trade analysis. Chapter 4: (Paper III: China‘s forestry reforms)  I performed the research, data analyses and manuscript preparation;  Dr. John Innes revised and finalized the paper;  Dr. Shuanyou Dai and Deputy Minister Jiafu Lei provided China national forest policy and program development data, and many helpful comments;  Sara Wu helped with the international impact analysis Chapter 5: (Paper IV: Achieving sustainable rural development in Southern China: Perspectives from bamboo forestry)  I identified and designed the research, collected and analyzed data and prepared the draft manuscript;  Dr. John L. Innes provided guidance and finalized the paper;  Dr. Shuangyou Dai helped with national bamboo data collection;  Dr. Guohui He helped with partial ground data collection in Fujian. Chapter 6: (Paper V: Watershed pattern and change in land-use in the Min River Watershed, Fujian)  I identified and designed the research methods, collected remote sensing data, conducted partial analyses and prepared the manuscript;  Dr. John Innes provided comments on the content and improved the quality of the English;  Dr. Jian Liu and Dr. Kunyong Yu helped with ground data collection from Fujian and provided field data analysis;  Dr. Karen Yan helped with the GIS data analyses. Chapter 7: (Paper VI: Extent of soil erosion associated with large-scale infrastructure development and possible amelioration measures) The research was initiated and designed by Professor Yang Yusheng, Dr. Chen Shanmu, Dr. Xie Jingsheng and Dr. Lin Wenlian from Fujian Normal University and Fujian Soil and Water Monitory Station. The data from the large-scale construction sites for 1999-2004 were mainly collected by them;  I worked with them to conduct data analyses and prepared the draft manuscript.  Dr. John L. Innes provided helpful discussions and clarified many of hydrological details, and improved the content and quality of the paper. xiv  Chapter 8: (Paper VII: Public awareness and conception on Min River watershed management and development, Fujian, China)  I identified the research and designed the research methodology and questionnaire, analyzed the data and prepared the draft manuscript;  Dr. Xiaoping Zhang helped with questionnaire pre-test in Fuzhou National Park and trained the field assistants;  Ms. Jingxin Wang helped with data entry and some of the analysis;  Dr. John Innes provided guidance and finalized the paper. Chapter 9: (Paper VIII: Watershed sustainability: Strategic and tactical level assessment in the Min River watershed, China)  I initiated and led the research while I was chairing the Min River Watershed sustainable watershed management project at Fujian Department of Forestry, just before coming to UBC. The assessment involved with more than thirty professionals from different disciplines. I undertook the data analyses and manuscript preparation at UBC.  Dr. John Innes provided guidance and helpful discussions on sustainable forest management and forest certification, and did the paper revision and improvement.  xv  1  INTRODUCTION  People in China still remember the disasters that occurred during the summer of 1998. The country was ravaged by devastating floods – the Yellow, Yangtze, Songhua, Nen, Zhu, Min, Gan, and Huai River were all affected. Millions of people fought to protect levées, cities, lands, houses, and their lives. In this largest natural disaster of the 20th century in China, across 29 provinces, 20 million ha land and 5 million houses were flooded, 223 million people were affected and 3004 people were killed. The overall damage was estimated to be in excess of US$ 30 billion (FAO and CIFOR 2005). Over-logging, deforestation, mismanagement … the forestry sector was blamed for the disaster. A logging ban was soon imposed in all natural forests in the headwaters of the rivers, with thousands of workers losing their jobs and half a million people being re-located. A series of environmental protection programs were launched, including the Natural Forest Protection Program, the Conversion Program from Cropland to Forest and Grass, the Shelterbelt Development Program along the Yangtze River Basin, and the Wildlife Conservation and Nature Reserves Development Program. Billions dollars were and still are being invested in planting trees (Wang et al., 2007). However, since 2000, China has continued to suffer from massive social, economic and environmental damage resulting from the devastating floods that have occurred every year. Between January and August 2004, 46 million people were affected by flooding in China (FAO and CIFOR 2005). Lack of scientific support for the protection programs has also created many problems and has resulted in a number of negative impacts (Chen, 2000; Fujian Environmental Protection Bureau, 2005 and Hong, 2005). A plethora of meetings and reports indicates that governments, communities and citizens are increasingly asking how environmental degradation can be harnessed, how watershed ecosystems can be restored and how sustainable development can be achieved. The sustainable watershed development is a complex problem that involves many different facets, including the social, economic, environmental and cultural needs of a designated area. Managers need to balance the interests of all stakeholders to ensure that any development is towards regional sustainability, while at the same time minimizing any impacts on other areas. In much of China, forests represent a key natural resource in a watershed development. Sound forest management is needed not only to stabilize regional ecosystems, but also to provide habitat for wildlife, to supply food, water, wood and many goods and services, and to promote community social, cultural and economic development. However, these functions can only be fulfilled if forest management is undertaken appropriately. The research presented here is part of a regional research project undertaken in Southeast China called ―Study of Sustainable Management on the Min River Watershed‖, which was initiated by the Fujian Provincial Government. The aim of the project was to provide sustainable watershed management principles and techniques for the Fujian Provincial Government so that it could fulfill the goal of constructing the Fujian Eco-province.  1  1.1  SUSTAINABLE WATERSHED MANAGEMENT  A watershed is a topographically delineated area that is drained by a river system. A watershed is also a hydrological response unit, a biophysical unit, and a holistic ecosystem in terms of the materials, energy and information that flow through the watershed. A watershed can be seen as a multiple-use pool of common resources (Steins and Edward, 1999) that can be used for agriculture, manufacturing and other human activities (Wright and Padgitt, 2005). In this thesis, I consider watershed management to be the interdisciplinary integration of the physical, biological, chemical, social, economic, and political sciences in organizing and guiding land, water and other natural resource use in a watershed. Its objective is to provide appropriate goods and services while mitigating the impact on the soil and watershed resources. This involves investigating and managing the socioeconomic, human-institutional, and biophysical interrelationships among soil, water, and land use and the connections between the different areas within the watershed. The concept of watershed management is very old. The Atharva Veda text from 800 B.C. contains what may well be the first written reference to watershed management. Atharva Veda verse 19, 2.1 states that: ―…one should take proper managerial action to use and conserve water from mountains, wells, rivers and also rainwater for use in drinking, agriculture, industries…‖ (cited in Chandra, 1990). In the West, the need for watershed management was recognized by Benjamin Franklin as early as 1790 (Davenport, 2003). John Wesley Powell (1890) proposed to the US Congress that the western states should be organized and governed with watershed boundaries rather than straight-line political boundaries (Mcginnis et al., 1999). However, watershed management as a holistic concept was not defined until the mid 20th century. The International Glossary of Hydrology (WMO/UNESO, 1969) presented a very simple definition of watershed management, stating that watershed management is the ―…planned use of drainage basins in accordance with pre-determined objectives‖ (p. 138). Influenced by multiple-use philosophy and the importance of water as a commodity, Dortignac (1967), Head of the Water Resource Branch of the U.S. Forest Service, stated that: ―Watershed management can play an important role under the present increasing population pressures and the public demand for greater productivity and multiple uses of forest and related lands. Scientific prescriptions that utilize the wood, forage, wildlife and recreation resources as well as improve water yields and control, maintain, or improve soil stability provide the means‖ (p.585). Such statements emphasize the importance of looking at multiple uses of watershed resources, rather than simply the hydrology. There are several issues facing watershed management worldwide, ranging from fundamental concerns over land-use needs and demands to more aesthetic and recreational needs. As with any form of resource management, the issues can be classified into a number of categories, including the policy and tenure system, equity, gender, participation, institution building, and research and development. Tension between the many different users – agriculture, forestry, industries, power, mines, urban and rural consumers, amenity, ecology and environment – exist in many parts of world (Calder, 1999). Calder points out that the right of access to water and equity considerations are key issues in some countries. Although land-use and water resources issues and concerns are often as diverse as the different countries‘ cultures, economies and stage of technical development, there appears to be some commonality in the way that governments treat the issues. These common issues tend to focus on how to minimize the impact of watershed development without compromising the needs of all stakeholders in the watershed. Obstacles to this process mainly seem to arise from: 1) divisions associated with political boundaries; 2) lack 2  of interagency communication and cooperation; 3) lack of mutual support among different areas, especially between upstream and downstream reaches; and 4) lack of public participation. Other problems include changes in administrations and their policies, lack of data, corruption, bureaucracy and debt (Krairapanond and Atkinson, 1998). Barry (1997) has written about the great Mississippi flood of 1927 and the struggles of ―man against nature‖ and ―man against man‖. The story illustrates the human storm that accompanied the flood. ―Honour and money collided. White and black collided. Regional and national power structures collided‖ (p.17). Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans in 2005 repeated the events of 1927. The science of watershed management is not just the science of hydrology, biology, physics, agronomy, botany, climatology, watershed ecology and engineering – it has also become the science of society and the study of the tensions among people, communities and their perceptions of what ought to be (Wright and Padgitt, 2005). A common problem for watershed research is that some of the data needed for holistic assessments are frequently missing, reflecting the multi-sectorial nature of the research. Without complete data, it is difficult to identify the main issues and establish an effective management plan. The difficulty in developing a Decision Support System (DSS) is not the lack of available simulation models but rather making these models available to decision makers, a key finding of the National Resource Council‘s Committee on Watershed Management (1999). Watershed management approaches have been adopted under a wide range of political, economic, social and environmental circumstances. Although there are many similarities in watershed management and research around the world, there remain some fundamental differences, such as the driving forces behind many of the processes, and cultural differences. For example, in comparing China with Canada, it is evident that the driving forces toward sustainable watershed management differ. In Canada, they primarily come from public interest groups, such as Environmental Non-Governmental Organizations (ENGOs), local communities and individuals, and the pressures are for the supply of clean drinking water and the maintenance of healthy ecosystems (Naimann et al., 2000; Davies and Mazumder, 2003). In China the driving forces are primarily from the governments, conflicts over water use and intensification of land, in addition to the financial losses and social unrest arising from devastating flooding, pollution and land degradation. The pressures arise from concerns about and threats to the safety of people‘s lives and property.  SFM and Watershed Management In recent decades, a strong global consensus has begun to develop around the notion that watersheds are the best unit for the management not only of water resources but of ecosystems in general (Montgomery et al., 1995). In addition, management of water resources has become one of the key criteria associated with sustainable forest management. Criterion Five of the Helsinki Process (1994), which lists a number of criteria related to sustainable forest management, is to ―Maintain and develop the role of forests in water supply and protection against erosion‖, and Criterion 4 of the Montreal Process (1995), which also lists criteria for sustainable forest management, relates to the ―Conservation and maintenance of soil and water resources‖. Both have selected soil and water resources as key conditions of sustainability. Eight out of 67 indicators selected in the Montreal Process pertain to soil, watershed condition and quantity and quality of water resources. They are: a) Area and percent of forest land with 3  significant soil erosion; b) Area and percent of forest land managed primarily for protective functions, e.g., watersheds, flood protection, avalanche protection, riparian zones; c) Percent of stream kilometres in forested catchments in which stream flow and timing has significantly deviated from the historic range of variation; d) Area and percent of forest land with significantly diminished soil organic matter and/or changes in other soil chemical properties; e) Area and percent of forest land with significant compaction or change in soil physical properties resulting from human activities; f) Percent of water bodies in forest areas (e.g., stream kilometres, lake hectares) with significant variance of biological diversity from the historic range of variability; g) Percent of water bodies in forest areas (e.g., stream kilometres, lake hectares) with significant variation from the historic range of variability in pH, dissolved oxygen, levels of chemicals (electrical conductivity), sedimentation or temperature change; and h) Area and percent of forest land experiencing an accumulation of persistent toxic substances Now, many countries are trying to place water management within the context of natural and human systems (Heathcote, 1998 and 2009; Gearey and Jeffrey, 2006). The World Bank, amongst others, uses watershed management approaches to assess the environmental benefits of development projects (Brooks et al., 1992; Tennyson, 2003). The World Bank has recognized that, as part of a watershed management approach, people are affected by the interaction of water with other resources and that they influence the nature and magnitude of those interactions. Poor ecosystem management within watersheds has and will result in the impaired functioning of the watershed, which in fragile environments can lead to ecosystem collapse (Samra and Eswaran, 1997; Hong, 2000; Yang et al., 2006).  Tools for Integrated Watershed Management Watershed management appears to have moved from a focus on physical water and soil conservation to the integration of social, economic, and environmental development. Watershed management assessment therefore requires the integration of a vast array of spatial information and temporal data. The modeling and visualization capabilities of modern GIS, coupled with the explosive growth of the Internet and the World Wide Web, offer new tools to understand the processes and dynamics that shape the physical, biological and chemical environment of watersheds. The linkage between GIS, the Internet, and environmental databases is especially helpful in planning studies, where information exchanges and timely feedback are crucial, especially when several different agencies and stakeholders are involved (Tim, 2003). A number of integrated watershed management tools have been discussed in the recent literature (e.g., Ffolliottee et al, 2002; Westervelt, 2003, Davenport, 2003, Singh and Frevert, 2006 and Heathcote, 2009), and some of these are described below. Watershed simulation modeling: Watershed modeling, or hydrologic simulation, began in the 1950s and 1960s, and with the advent and rapid progress in digital computer technologies, numerical simulation models have become increasingly important and effective tools for tackling a wide range of environmental and resource management issues (Choen, 2004). Included among these many types of models are watershed hydrological models that simulate the dynamic behaviour of significant flow and storage processes and generate water balance information (quantity and associated hydraulic characteristics, sources and pathways, residence times, etc.). Historically, most early hydrological models were designed to estimate water quantities in engineering applications such as flood forecasting, urban storm water management and other water resources planning activities such as reservoir design and water supply. The 4  Stanford Watershed Model (SWM) was one of the first such programs; it was developed to replace the tedious manual computations performed by hydrologists to predict stream flow given observed precipitation (and other meteorological variables) (Donigian and Imhoff, 2006). Since the late 1970s, water quality components have been developed and incorporated into some watershed models as the importance of non-point source pollution has been gradually recognized (Chen, 2004). Models such as BASINS have been developed to meet the increasingly demanding regulatory framework for water in watersheds (Duda et al., 2006), and increasing use is being made of such approaches. In 1995, Vijay Singh edited a book entitled Computer Models of Watershed Hydrology which contained 26 of the most popular models that have been adopted worldwide. In 2002, Vijay Singh and Donald Frevert edited two books entitled Mathematical Models of Large Watershed Hydrology and Mathematical Models of Small Watershed Hydrology and Application. In the latest book edited by Singh and Frevert (2006), entitled Watershed Models, 24 of the most commonly used models were selected on the basis of a wide range of characteristics, such as representativeness, comprehensiveness and broad-based applications. These reviews provide ample evidence of the very rapid development that has occurred in the field of watershed modeling. ‗Simulation Modeling for Watershed Management‘ (Westervelt, 2003) provides a means for users to use computer modeling for simulating watershed management. Software is not yet generally available for the development of large, complex, and computationally-intensive, spatially-explicit, simulation models. However, many alternatives are available. The Spatial Modeling Environment (SME) marries simulation modeling software such as STELLA to a powerful simulation execution environment. The SME facilitates the simultaneous execution of STELLA-like models for each grid cell associated with a raster GIS database (Maxwell and Costanza, 1997; Costanza and Ruth, 1998). The Patuxent model has been used for beta-testing of the Spatial Modeling Environment (SME) and Collaborative Modeling Environment (CME) (Voinov et al., 1999). In addition to System Dynamics, Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), Fuzzy Logic, and Genetic Algorithms are commonly used modeling technologies. ANNs have the ability to capture a relationship from given patterns and this makes them suitable for employment in the solution of large-scale complex problems, such as pattern recognition, nonlinear modeling, classification, association and control (Singh, 2006). Genetic Algorithms are search techniques employing the mechanics of natural selection and genetic. Srivastava et al. (2002) used genetic algorithms for watershed optimization of best management practices. Watershed decision-making systems: There have been many studies of watershed decisionmaking support systems designed for various different purposes, such as water supply (e.g., Leavesley et al., 1996; Koutsoyiannis et al., 2003), soil conservation (e.g., Cox and Madramootoo, 1998), pollution (e.g., Djodjic et al., 2002), sustainable resource development (e.g., Smith et al., 2003), the impact of land-use change (e.g., Engel et al., 2003) and integrated watershed management (e.g., Miller et al., 2004). The lessons learned from these many watershed management initiatives indicate that in order to succeed, integrated watershed management must be participatory, adaptive and experimental, integrating all the relevant scientific knowledge/data and user-supplied information about the social, economic and environmental processes affecting natural resources at the watershed level (Steiguer et al., 2000). Effective watershed management and planning requires the integration of knowledge, data, simulation models, and expert judgment to solve practical problems and provide a scientific 5  basis for decision making at the watershed scale (National Research Council, 1999). A userfriendly Decision Support System (DSS) that would help different stakeholder groups to develop, understand and evaluate alternative watershed management strategies is needed. The DSS would consist of a suite of computer programs with components consisting of database management systems (DBMS), geographic information systems (GIS), simulation models, decision models, and easy-to-understand user interfaces (Miller et al., 2000). Effective management goes beyond the use of technology, and Heathcote (2009) has suggested that the integrated watershed management process involves several distinct steps: a) problem scoping and definition with decision-makers and professionals, b) assessment of legal and institutional concerns, c) consultation with stakeholders, d) inventory of the geology, soil, stream flow, groundwater, water quality, plant and animal communities, land use, and social and economic systems, f) development of management options, with associated costs, to solve the problem(s), g) assessment of management options, h) environmental and social impact assessment as required by law, i) selection of the best plan, j) obtaining financial support, and k) implementation and monitoring of the plan. She argued that if these are completed, then integrated watershed management is likely to be much more successful.  Social Development Systems There has been increasing recognition that public participation can lead to better management of common resources. Benefits include a better-informed public, reduced conflict amongst different users, greater democracy through greater involvement of people in decision-making, more effective implementation of conservation measures and others (e.g., Ostrom, 1990; Ostrom et al., 1993; Dolsak and Ostrom, 2003), although they are only likely to be materialized if the participation process is carried all the way through to implementation (Margerum, 1999). Steiguer et al. (2000) state that watersheds are a highly desirable unit for planning because they are physical features, ubiquitous across the landscape and often serve as the geographic foundations for political jurisdictions. However, as planning units, watersheds can also transcend political boundaries. Prior to the 1970s, most watershed management focused on solving localized problems without taking into account the interrelationship between those problems and the biophysical, economic and social elements of the larger watershed system (Heathcote, 2009). In addition, during most of the mid- to late- 20th century, watershed management was, politically, a top-down planning process with national concerns pre-empting local concerns (National Research Council, 1999). Even at the local level, government desires to retain control over the decision-making process may have hindered the development of participatory decision-making in watershed management (Baviskar, 2004). Growing awareness of sustainable management, the development of democratic decision-making processes, the failure of existing attempts at watershed management planning, and increasing land-use conflicts at the scale of the watershed have all led to calls for wider public participation, and programs such as the European Water Framework Directive now place great emphasis on stakeholder and public participation in water management (Garin et al., 2002; Blomqvist, 2004; Jonsson, 2005). As mentioned above, the advent of the Internet and World Wide Web has provided a good interface for participation in watershed planning and decision-making processes, but access to the Internet remains uneven. This is a fundamental problem – in developed countries, it is the older and less affluent segments of the population that may be excluded, whereas in the lessdeveloped countries, lack of computer skills amongst the public, government controls on 6  Internet access, limited availability of computers and telephone connections and the presence of government officials who lack training in the use of web-based democratic processes may all hinder the effective introduction of the new technologies. These problems do not preclude public participation in watershed planning, they simply necessitate the adoption of different approaches (e.g., White and Runge, 1994; Porto, 1998; Horen, 2001). Public participation is an important aspect of planning watershed management (Duram and Brown, 1999), but it needs to be conducted in an appropriate way to be successful (Konisky and Beierle, 2001; Webler and Tuler, 2001). A management plan requires the active involvement of all interested parties in developing the best approach to achieve its objectives. There are nine steps to the development of a general public participation plan: 1) identify the watershed problem(s); 2) set project goals and objectives; 3) define the study area and pilot projects to be completed; 4) identify objectives for public involvement; 5) identify the stakeholders and interest groups; 6) outline the benefits of and obstacles to public participation; 7) outline methods of public participation; 8) establish an action plan; and 9) put the plans into action. For example, in a study of the Havel Basin in northeast Germany (Jessel and Jacobs, 2005), detailed surveys were carried out to investigate the various interests of stakeholders. The interviews were used to identify the key problems in each of a number of areas in relation to water quality and quantity. The survey facilitated stakeholder engagement in catchment planning issues in the Havel River Basin. The information from the stakeholder interviews was used to determine the initial conditions for the land-use scenarios that were developed to demonstrate possible changes to land use that could result in improved water quality. In a second survey, the results of the scenarios and the hydrological modelling were presented to stakeholders. The consultation process identified the priorities of stakeholders that could then be taken into account when developing management options. In another example, there have been successful attempts to involve the public in integrated watershed management in Australia. Based on the very successful Landcare programme, communities across much of the country have now been involved in planning water resource use at regional scales, usually based on watersheds (Ewing, 1999; Curtis and Lockwood, 2000). The participatory approach has been emphasized by Ffolliott et al. (2002), who has argued that ―effective watershed management also requires responsible government agencies, locally-led partnerships, council, and corporations and other institutions to:        Increase the awareness of all stakeholders about the importance of sustainable land use and the relationships that watershed management has built on, including the biophysical realities and the economic, social, and cultural factors that affect land use in watersheds. Identify all stakeholders, including the upstream and downstream stakeholders in watershed-use issues, and their perceptions and motivation about the issues. Classify agency and institutional jurisdiction over watershed management activities and improve the coordination between the agencies and institutions. This is especially significant because most countries have several agencies that have jurisdiction over uplands and over particular activities in those areas. Facilitate local management of upland natural resources by local residents in watersheds that are partially or entirely privately owned or controlled, and where agencies are not responsible for land, water, or other natural resource management. Distribute fairly the benefits and costs associated with upland natural resource use, and the application of watershed management practices between the upland and downstream land 7    users and other stakeholders. Assess the short- and long-term impacts of watershed management policies and activities as they evolve in order to encourage more effective watershed management. Feedback mechanisms (monitoring and evaluation programs) for this assessment must determine whether commodity-producing activities and the soil and water resources on which these activities depend can be sustained under the current policies – results from the assessment must be incorporated into future land-use policy.‖ (pp. 131–132).  In summary, watershed management neither seeks nor needs a cure-all watershed model. The practices relating to resource use and management around the world do not depend solely on the physical and biological characteristics of watersheds, they also depend on a range of social elements. Watershed management needs to be a standard component in development programs that focus on water resources, forestry, agricultural and related land and resource use. To be effective, land-use administrators, water resource managers, foresters, and agriculturalists, along with professional watershed managers, must all be involved.  1.2  THE MIN RIVER WATERSHED  Given the fact that the manuscripts based on the Min River region as case studies, it is necessary to provide some background information about the study region. The Min River is located in south-eastern China, between 116°30‘ and 119°30‘ E and 25°20‘ and 28°25‘ N. It is the longest river in Fujian Province. The headwaters of the Min River are situated at an elevation of about 2115 m in the Wuyi Mountains in the north-western section of Fujian. Flowing generally east through the cities of Sanming, Nanping, and Fuzhou, the Min River Watershed covers an area of 60,992 km2 and the river travels 2,872 km from source to sea. The main river has a length of 559 km (Fujian Chorography Compilation Committee 2002). The Min River Watershed (Figure 1–1) is an abundant water resource providing 130.05m3 km-2 water, and with a water production coefficient of about 0.597, a surface runoff coefficient of around 53–60%, and an annual discharge of 6.211010 m3 (Fujian Chorography Compilation Committee, 2002). The Min River has played and continues to play an important role in the social, environmental and economic development of Fujian Province. Almost one third of Fujian‘s population of approximately 12 million people inhabits the watershed. It accounts for over half of the total agricultural production, two-thirds of the commercial logging, and 60% of the drinking water in the province. GDP is around 238.4 billion Yuan, 32% of provincial GDP and 41% of agricultural production (Table 1–1).  8  Figure 1-1. The research area, located in northern Fujian, China  9  Table 1-1. GDP of the Min River Watershed (2006). Units are in 100 million Yuan (1US$=8 Yuan). (Adapted from Fujian Province Bureau of Statistics, 2007).  Reach Upper Reach Middle Reach Lower Reach Watershed total Provincial total % of province  Gross Domestic  Primary  Product 900 149 1336 2384 7554 32%  Industry 199 51.5 122 372 912 41%  Secondary Industry Subtotal 359 46.1 613 1018 3725 27%  Industry 305 38.3 527 870 3299 26%  Construction 54.7 7.81 86.2 149 426 35%  Tertiary Industry 342 51.3 601 994 2918 34%  Per Capita GDP (Yuan) 15,428 10,716 28,569 20,044 22,692 88%  (Primary Industry is the term used to describe organizations that are involved in the development and production of raw materials, such as meat, grains, minerals and timber. It is used in various capacities within primary industry; Secondary Industry is involved in the manufacture of goods. Secondary industry often uses technology in the development and creation of goods; and Tertiary Industry is the field of industries that provide transportation or finance rather than manufacturing or extracting raw materials)  10  The Min River Watershed is used for generating hydroelectricity for urban and industrial use, irrigation, flood control, navigation, recreation, fishing and wildlife conservation. There are 29 large-scale hydropower stations in the watershed. A major construction project began in 1985, at ShuiKou (Figure 1–2), in Minqing County, to develop a power generation capacity of 1.4 million kilowatts annually. It is the biggest hydro-electric power plant in eastern China. The project was completed in 1996 and involved the resettlement of 67,000 people (Fujian Chorography Compilation Committee, 2002). In addition to generating power, the dam is expected to help control flooding in the Min River Watershed.  Figure 1-2. Fujian ShuiKou Dam and Shuikou Hydropower Station. (Photo: Guangyu Wang 2002). The rapid population growth and economic development in the watershed appear to have caused serious local and regional environmental problems. Two of China‘s largest pulp and paper mills release pollutants directly into the river; these pollutants are carried downstream to local communities that use the water to irrigate their farms and villages. Farmers, seeking the services associated with cities, have moved closer to the river, fuelling massive residential construction projects that put pressure on the area‘s natural resources. The government has built transportation grids to accommodate this growth, but its apparent focus on economic development at the expense of environmental and social benefits seems to have resulted in severe over-crowding, together with air, water and soil pollution, water resource depletion, and soil loss. These environmental and social stresses appear to have been caused by the competing claims of different stakeholders – local villagers who lived in the area before industrialization, forest collectives managing the lands that used to provide 70% of the pulpwood for mills, farmers needing river water for fish farms, the livestock husbandry, agriculture and township industries (pulp, plywood, food processing, shoes and toys). State agencies manage primarily at the county level, seemingly with little knowledge of or care for how their actions might influence the watershed downstream. Fujian Province‘s legislative body – the Fujian People‘s Standing Committee – has recently passed the Min River Protection Act, which established measures to 11  mitigate the environmental and social impacts of industrialization on the river. The Fujian Environmental Protection Bureau (2005) issued the Min River Watershed Environmental Protection Plans in 2005; these are also supposed to ensure good management in the watershed. However, the Act and the Plans appear to lack any scientific foundation, and they fail to indicate how a more sustainable balance between the environmental, social and economic demands in the watershed will be achieved. Management tools are therefore needed that will allow the provincial legislature to monitor the health of the watershed as a whole, so that interagency cooperation can be improved, and competing claims on the land can be balanced.  1.3  OBJECTIVES  The concept of sustainable forest management was introduced into China after the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development in 1992 but, as shown below, there have been many problems associated with the adoption of western systems of management. While theory abounds, in reality it is extremely difficult to balance the sustainable use of limited natural resources with the high population densities and accelerated economic development that has been occurring over the past 10 years. In recent years, issues surrounding watershed management have caught the attention of both the government and the public. Several government departments and bureaus – such as Agriculture, Forestry, Water Conservation and Environmental Protection, and Oceans and Fisheries – have put great effort into a project called ―Comprehensive Plans for Harnessing the Min River‖, which was formulated and issued by the Fujian Provincial Government. More than US$ 12 million was invested in the project annually between 1995 and 2005. Through the Min River Watershed Environmental Protection Plan, the Fujian Provincial Government is constructing 104 projects related to water pollution control facilities, waste management, headwater protection, clean development, recycling pilot projects, eco-agriculture model projects and environmental monitoring and scientific research, with a total investment of US$ 948 million (6.638 billion Yuan) between 2005 and 2010 (Fujian Environmental Protection Bureau, 2005). As a result of the high level of available funding, a large number of research projects have been undertaken in the watershed. Zhao (1997) conducted hazard assessments for mountain torrents in the upper reaches of the Min River. He identified the triggering factors, propagating processes and spatial distribution of damage caused by mountain torrents. Zhang et al. (2000) analyzed floodwater distributions and the environmental fragility of the Min Valley. He argued that the degradation of the forest ecosystem had dramatically decreased water retention and soil conservation in the watershed over the last 30 years. Chen (2000) described the impacts of the industrial infrastructure and distribution on the environment in the Min River Watershed. As most of the heavy and metallurgical industries in the province are concentrated in the Nanping and Sanming areas, the upper reaches of the watershed account for more than 80% of water and air pollution in the watershed. He argued that future industrial developments should be regulated. Liang (2002) analyzed the forest resources in the watershed and the relationship between soil erosion and forest cover. The different vegetation types and quality in riparian areas had a major impact on rates of river sedimentation. He pointed out the importance of establishing riparian and soil protection forests in the area. Pang (2003) identified that intense precipitation combined with the unique landforms in the area, the malfunctioning of the reservoir water control system, and the over-cutting of forests, were the main causes of flooding in the Min River. He suggested that flooding could be avoided by increasing public awareness, coordinating between agencies, and developing a better system of watershed management. He also proposed increasing 12  investment in eco-forestry development and management along the Min River. Since 2005, research in the Min River Watershed has focused mainly on the control of water pollution (e.g., Liu, 2005; Zhu, 2005; Lan and Chen, 2006; Hong, 2005; Duan et al., 2007). The research has aimed at solving problems associated with non-point source pollution, pollution associated with livestock husbandry, and industrial pollution. The research has indicated that the rapid development of livestock has contributed to the recent increase in eutrophication, and has suggested that further control of the livestock industry is necessary. Hu and Li (2006a, 2006b), Li and Hu (2007) and Lin (2007) all focused on the development of payments for ecological services. They argued that the current determination of compensation for regional ecological benefits in the Min River Watershed lacked a sound scientific basis. They suggested that the government should use the cost-sharing method (the cost of ecological reconstruction) to determine rates of ecological compensation in the Min River Watershed. The research group led by Liu Jian (Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University) has started to look at forest fragmentation, forest productivity and stand volume estimation using Landsat images (Liu et al., 2006; Qi et al., 2006, Yu et al., 2006, 2007; Lai et al., 2007). However, current applications are still at the stage of improving classification accuracy and developing application techniques. The limitation of most of these studies is that they are focused on only one or two subjects, such as flood routing, damage assessment, industrial pollution control, forest ecology, navigation, the irrigation system, or the ecological compensation system. Very few researchers have looked at the development of the watershed as a whole in relation to the mechanisms of watershed ecosystem degradation, the causes of the increase in natural disasters and social problems, or the measures needed to achieve sustainable development in the watershed. In particular, no studies have combined forest management with other social studies as part of an overall management process to achieve the goal of systematic development.  1.4  STRUCTURE OF THE THESIS  The research presented here appears to be the first time that a holistic approach to watershed management has been adopted in China. The aim is to try to understand the relationship between economic development and environmental protection in China during the period of social, political and economic transition that has occurred since the mid-1980s. In addition, I examine the impacts of national and regional development programs on watershed sustainability, and public perceptions of sustainable watershed development. The research involved a literature review, interviews with stakeholders, an analysis of existing watershed statistical data, and an analysis of satellite images with a view to examining the watershed‘s sustainability. This work has been placed into a broader context by examining current forest policies and their relation to environmental protection programs in China. Particular emphasis has been placed on the evaluation of forest policy and national programs to combat flooding. The research used quantitative and qualitative methods from spatial and temporal spectra to examine human activities in the watershed, especially the interrelationships of stakeholders competing for the use of the watershed resources (Figure 1–3). The research examined two key developments – watershed management and forest management from three dimensions – physical topographic change (land use and land cover change), socioeconomic and environmental outcomes, and public perception. 13  Data collection and sources  Interviewing  Stakeholders - Government and watershed agencies - Community, industries and people  Experts  Secondary data  Annual statistics  Professional survey  Census data  Spatial data  RS data  GIS model  Watershed assessment Questionnaire analysis  PREED* assessment  Identification of:  ` - The main problems - Public awareness - Management practices, and impacts and conflicts  Analysis of:  Stage of development  Main factors leading to the lack of sustainability  Relationships among PREED  LULC * assessment  Examination of:  Watershed dynamic change  Mechanisms of ecosystem degradation  Watershed sustainable forest management Forest management assessment  Watershed management assessment  Integrate watershed management and SFM  Figure 1-3. Flowchart for the research (*PREED- population, resources, economy, environment and development; LULC- Land use and land cover; and SFM- Sustainable forest management)  The thesis is organized into two parts: Part I examines Chinese nation-wide issues related to watershed management and forestry development over the last twenty years. This part, including this introductory chapter, contains reviews of the literature concerning several aspects of land management in China. Chapter 2 provides an overview of the development of watershed management in China, and the current priorities and issues facing watershed management in the country. Chapter 3 contains an overview of Chinese forest management issues, challenges, current government policy, and national key programs to improve forest ecosystems, rural livelihoods and wood supply, focusing on the period since 1998. Both these chapters focus exclusively on China. Assessing such developments in a broader, international context would have been interesting but was considered to be outside the scope of this thesis. Chapter 4 examines the effectiveness of the national key forestry programs and the impact of this on the environment and economic and 14  rural development. Chapter 5 analyzes the current state of bamboo forest resources and management, and the roles of the bamboo forest industry in social development, economic growth and ecosystem protection. Over the past two decades, almost 500,000 hectares of bamboo forest have been established in the Min River Watershed, providing benefits to local communities, alleviating poverty and easing timber shortages. In this chapter, the main issues related to governance systems, local economic development and traditional management practices are also examined. Part II uses the Min River as a case study to asses its land use change, soil erosion, public awareness and perception of watershed issues, and sustainability of the watershed over the last decade. Chapter 6 looks at changes in the patterns of land use in the Min River Watershed using Landsat imagery from 1986, 1990, 2000 and 2003. The mechanisms involved in land-use change over the past two decades are related to the economic development policy and population growth in the watershed, intensive land use and over-exploitation. The role of inappropriate development in the floods of recent years is examined. Chapter 7 examines the impact of infrastructure development on soil erosion: the impacts of 90 large-scale infrastructure projects undertaken between 1999 and 2004 are analysed. The potential for amelioration measures has been examined in a simulation experiment that compared soil erosion across different land covers for a period of one year following exposure. Chapter 8 looks at public awareness in relation to environmental protection in the Min River Watershed. Two major concerns about the watershed have been identified: pollution and flooding. The combination of traditional forestry practices combined with modern mechanisation is identified as being one of the primary problems leading to environmental degradation in the watershed. Chapter 9 uses the Sustainable Forest Management Certification Auditing Systems (SFMCAS) approach integrated with a Regional Sustainable Development Assessment (RSDA) to examine the state of sustainability of land and water resource use in the Min River Watershed. Here, I should mention that there are three papers along with this research, namely, ‗Soil erosion associated with the establishment of Chinese Fir plantations in southeast China‘ ( Paper IX, submitted to Forest Ecology and Management); ‗Towards a new paradigm: the development of China‘s forestry in the 21st century‘ (Paper X © 2008 International Forestry Review); and ‗The need to cut China‘s illegal timber imports‘ (Paper XI © 2008 Science) have not been included in this thesis. In the concluding chapter, I argue that watersheds are complex systems that require a balance between development and systematic management. The forest is a major factor in watershed ecosystems, and forest management can play a key role in mitigating or worsening the condition of the watershed ecosystem. Humans can both create and destroy modern civilizations, but they do not govern the natural forces of the planet, as the Sichuan earthquake disaster of May 2008 clearly showed. 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Subtropical Soil and Water Conservation 17 (4), 55–57.  20  2  2.1  WATERSHED MANAGEMENT IN CHINA: PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE DEVELOPMENT1  INTRODUCTION  Watershed management, an ancient concept defined in Vedic text from India dating from 1,000 BC (Chandra, 1990), can be traced back to the time of the Xia Dynasty (2100 B.C.) in China (e.g., Zheng, 2004; Chen, 2007). Today, sustainable development practices endow watershed management with a broader concept and new meaning, new methods and new approaches. Watershed management in China has emerged as a holistic approach to managing the regional biological, physical and social aspects. The rapid development of the Chinese economy over the past thirty years, which has taken priority over environmental protection, has resulted in largescale ecosystem degradation and water pollution, both of which are greatly jeopardizing the social structure, economic development and living conditions in China (Yang et al., 2006). Current watershed management mechanisms in China do not deal effectively with watershed problems (CAS Sustainable Development Research Group, 2007). In this review of the development of China‘s watershed management, and supported by case studies of the three most influential watershed management programs in China, I suggest that future watershed management in China should involve: 1) the improvement of its legal system and law enforcement; 2) the construction of an appropriate management structure, complete with interagency working mechanisms; 3) the development of a structure that could better balance the interests of all stakeholders; 4) an integrated approach to watershed planning; 5) greater stakeholder participation; 6) better information exchange, and 7) better and more comprehensive public education.  2.2  HISTORY OF WATERSHED MANAGEMENT IN CHINA  Watershed management has been evident throughout Chinese civilization and can be traced back to about 2000 BC (Zheng, 2004; Chen, 2007). The earliest planned watershed development in human history occurred in China during the Xia Dynasty (2100 BC). Dayu, a Chinese hydrological engineer, worked for 13 years along the Yellow River and successfully controlled the flooding that was prevalent at the time. By the Shang Dynasty (1600 to 1046 BC), people in the Yellow river area were using the ‗furrow approach‘, an early form of strip cropping that conserves soil nutrients and water (Wang, 2003). Three thousand years ago, historical records reveal that people in XiZhou were practising water storage, managing discharge and using irrigation (Tan, 2005). Some of the earliest major developments occurred in the Zhou Dynasty (1046 to 256 BC), and affected the Yellow River watershed. Around 256 BC, Li Bing led the Dujiangyan Irrigation 1  A version of this chapter has been submitted for publication. Wang, G.Y. and Innes, J. ‗Watershed management in China: Past, Present and Future Development‘. The version  21  Project on the Minjiang River, a tributary of the Yangtze River. This was one of largest scale irrigation projects in Chinese history, and still provides benefits to the region. In particular, it drastically reduced the incidence of flooding on the Chengdu Plain (Tan, 2005). In 246 BC, Zheng Guo, a hydrologist, launched a program introducing water from the Guangzhong watershed to Loushui, 300 km east, and irrigating 40,000 ha. of farmland (Wei, 2005). The Zhengbai Canal System, which was responsible for the irrigation of about a third of the farmland in China at that time, was subsequently extended during later dynasties (Anonymous, 2007). After the unification of China in 221 BC by the Emporer Qin Shi Huangdi, the first Central Government agency for water management was established, with the Emperor appointing water officers to take charge of watershed management. An example of one of the major projects undertaken by Qin Shi Huangdi is the Ling Canal System, which connected the Xian River Watershed in Hunan province to the Li River Watershed in Guangxi province. It was completed in 214 BC. The canal system connects the Pearl and Yangtze Rivers, linking two of the largest river systems in China. A second large-scale development occurred in the Sui (581–617 AD) and Tang (618–907 AD) Dynasties. This involved the Yangtze River watershed and southeast China. The best-known project is the Jing–Hang Giant Canal System (also known as the Beijing–Hangzhou Grand Canal), at 1770 km the longest water system ever constructed in China. Throughout the period, the government focused on physical engineering projects, including dams, dykes, and levée construction in the delta of the Yangtze River, with the primary objective of creating good conditions for agriculture and waterways for transportation (Zheng, 2006). A third large-scale development occurred in the Ming (1368–1644 AD) and Qing (1644–1911 AD) Dynasties, when watershed development was largely focused on mountain protection. The hydrologist Xu Zhenming (1573–1620) pointed out that ―prior to harnessing the river, the mountain should be protected‖, thereby initiating important work in headwater regions. Kangxi (1654–1722), an emperor of Qing Dynasty, was also a hydrologist. He considered that harnessing water resources was one of the three key factors in governing the country. He increased the national budget for water and watershed management by a factor of 10 and was personally involved in the planning of several river projects. He paid six visits to the Yellow River to investigate watershed development and flood control. By 1820, 30% of the area cultivated for rice was irrigated, compared to only 3.5% in India in 1850 (CAS Sustainable Development Strategic Research Group, 2007). These developments contributed to the long period of prosperity enjoyed by China in the second half of the 17th and early 18th century under the rule of the Emperor Kangxi (Gu, 2006). In the late 19th and early 20th centuries, China suffered greatly from the two World Wars and a major Civil War. Chinese social, economic and environmental development was greatly set back. Three human-induced disasters in the 20th century, namely the Wars, the ‗Great Leap Forward‘, and the ‗Cultural Revolution‘, led to China becoming one of the most backward and disadvantaged countries in the world (Yang et al., 2006).. Having supported millions of people for thousands years, the Yellow River Basin and the Loess Plateau became some of the most degraded land on the planet, and the origin of the soil erosion, desertification, and sandstorms that have seriously threatened the lower reaches of the Yellow River Basin and eastern China (e.g., Yang and Liu, 1992; Ren and Zhu, 1994; Kong et al., 2002; Li et al., 2003; Feng et al., 2005; Ma et al., 2005). 22  The recent rapid development of the economy without adequate environmental protection over the past thirty years has created a number of problems, including unregulated infrastructure development, over-exploitation of forest resources, and large volumes of untreated sewage being directly released into rivers and other water bodies. The result has been large-scale ecosystem degradation and water pollution (Economy, 2004), both of which are greatly jeopardizing the social structure, economic development and living conditions in China. According to Pan Yue, Deputy Minister of the Environmental Protection Agency of China, ―300 million rural residents drink unsafe water; and one-fifth of China‘s major cities fail to meet the country‘s minimum standards for drinking water‖ (Pan, 2006).  2.3  MODERN WATERSHED MANAGEMENT IN CHINA  Over the last thirty years, as a result of economic development and social progress, along with the devastation of the environment (e.g., Smil, 1993; Economy, 2004; Gleick, 2008), watershed management has received increasing attention from various levels of government, the public and local communities in China. The development of hydropower and irrigation to meet the need for industry and agricultural development, the protection and utilization of forest resources to meet the demand for wood and water conservation, and the security of drinking water and discharge of untreated waste appear to have become the drivers in China‘s watershed development. The large-scale flooding that has occurred throughout China since 1992 (particularly in 1998) became the turning point in China‘s watershed management and forest protection (Wei et al., 2008). The Administration Committees of the Yellow, Yangtze, Zhu, Hai, and Songhua Rivers and Tai Lake have been resumed or established (He et al., 2001). A Water Law was passed in 1988, and amended in 2002. Several developments are of particular interest. Compared to the original Water Law, and in order to fulfill China‘s commitments to international agreements and China‘s Agenda 21, several key points have been stressed in the amendment, including: 1) unified management of water resources, and the need for integrated watershed management systems and clarification of the legal status of watershed management administrative institutions; 2) implementation of water use rights and permits through the introduction of market mechanisms into water management; 3) an emphasis on the importance of watershed development planning, water relocation regulation, and water use efficiency and conservation; and 4) an emphasis on balancing the development of water utilization and economic growth with environmental protection and protection of water resources from pollution. The weaknesses of the new Water Law include: 1) Lack of provision for public participation in the protection of individuals‘ rights to learn about and act upon watershed issues, and 2) the lack of an ecological compensation mechanism, even though the new law has laid out water use charges. There is no provision for water conservation. Although the water legislation framework defined in Caracas and Mar del Plata (International Association for Water Law, 1976; Heathcote, 1998, Biswas, 2004, Salman and Bradlow, 2006; Heathcote, 2009) has not been fully adopted in the 2002 Water Law, China is now considering and working towards a comprehensive system of water law. The system will include sub-laws on water pollution control, flood prevention, water and soil conservation, water utilization, transportation, energy development, wetland management, lake protection and watershed management. There has been a change from single-purpose water management to a more holistic form of watershed management, involving comprehensive planning and integrated management (e.g., Wang, 1999; Economy, 2004; Cannon, 2006). The Central Government seems to have 23  recognized the watershed as an important unit for the development of water and soil resources planning and for the management and utilization of natural resources. As a result, by 1997, management plans for the seven main river watersheds had been completed and implemented. The first stage of the plans was completed in 2003, and included large-scale water control and hydroelectric power projects such as the Long Yang Gorge, San Men Gorge, Dan Jiang Kou, Xingan River, Shuifen, Miyuan, Guanting, Pan Jiankou, and Meishan (Wang, 2003). The Three Gorges Project along the Yangtze River and the Xiaolangdi Multipurpose Project along the Yellow River are symbolic projects that are intended to demonstrate China‘s arrival in the modern world. Less well-publicized are the more than 10,000 watersheds that have been implementing watershed control and development plans, involving a total area of 40 million ha. and the protection of 22 million ha. of land from soil and water erosion (Wang, 2003). A number of projects have been developed with the goal of promoting regional development. In 1983, the State Council identified eight national key areas for protection against soil and water erosion, with a further six areas, and two reservoirs – Miyuan and Pan Jiankou – being added in 1989. In total, the program involved 43 million ha. across 15 provinces and 245 counties (Wang, 2003). At the same time as this federal exercise, provincial and county governments were identifying key local restoration programs and pilot projects, and these have greatly promoted the use of sustainable watershed management approaches in the development of local watersheds. After the 100-year floods of 1998, a ban was placed on the logging of all natural forests in the headwaters of rivers (Wang et al., 2007). At the same time as the introduction of the logging bans, six headwater forest conservation programs were introduced to protect and afforest 20.1 million ha, involving an investment of US$ 11.8 billion. According to the State Forestry Administration, the Natural Forest Protection Program (NFPP) started officially in 2000 (with the planned period of operation being from 2000 to 2010), and involved 17 provinces. It aims is to reduce annual wood production from natural forests by 20 million m3 through a logging ban, a reduction of harvesting on sensitive sites, and the relocation of 740,000 workers made redundant by the ban. The Conversion of Cropland to Forest Program (CCFP) plans to invest more than US$ 60.5 billion in planting trees and restoring grasslands in the 12 western provinces of China by 2010. It aims to restore 22 million ha. of eroded land and 25 million ha. of dry lands, reducing the release of sediment into the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers by 260 million tonnes annually. Surveys indicate that 4.98 million ha. of forest have been planted as part of the NFPP Program ain the period 2000–2006, and 18.7 million ha. have been planted in the CCFP program over the same period (State Forestry Administration, 2007). Accompanying the development of more holistic approaches to watershed management, there has been a remarkable philosophical shift from government control to the development of public responsibility (Wang, 1999; CAS Sustainable Development Strategic Research Group, 2007). With the implementation of the Household Responsibility Systems (Lin, 1986) by the central government, local farmers have become a core force in watershed management. The government, by ceding ownership and management rights to farmers, has generated enthusiasm for watershed management, with different management models being created to meet specific local conditions. This change has also resulted in much greater public participation and stakeholder involvement in watershed planning and decision-making (Yang et al., 2006). Success stories include the use of a public-participatory approach to reduce pollution in the Yuqiao Reservoir, the source of drinking water for the City of Tianjing in China (Jones et al., 2002), and a Sino-German cooperation project for the sustainable development of mountain 24  areas in Jiangxi Province (MLR, 2006). In the latter project, a participatory approach to rural development was introduced, with the aim of conducting land-use planning, disseminating methods of natural resources management, strengthening the development of a farmers‘ selfhelp organization, and providing financial micro-credits to farming households. There has been a clear evolution from a very passive approach to watershed management to one that is much more active. Since implementing the Household Responsibility Systems, watershed management has become a mechanism for poverty alleviation (e.g., Wang, 1999; Li, 2003; Upadhyay, 2003). To enable local farmers to gain material benefits from watershed management, the various levels of government have paid great attention to the integration of watershed protection and rural development. The new concept of watershed management that has been promulgated is to combine long-term benefits with short-term outcomes, integrating environmental values with economic profits, and coalescing soil and water protection with poverty reduction (CCICED, 2005). Pilot studies have been undertaken in national key protection areas, and the outcomes seem promising (Yang et al., 2006). The development of bamboo forests, hay meadows, traditional medicinal herbs and non-timber forests in fragile areas are successful models for this new approach (State Forestry Administration, 2006). National laws, provincial by-laws and soil and water regulations have been developed. In 1982, the State Council of China issued the Soil and Water Conservation Regulation, and this has been accompanied by detailed provincial regulations in every province. In 1991, the Law of the People's Republic of China on Water and Soil Conservation was promulgated, together with the Water Law, Flood Control Law, Forest Law, Agricultural Law, Fishery Law, Law on Protection of Wildlife, Land Management Law, Grassland Law, Mineral Resources Exploitation Law and many others. These apply at national, provincial and local levels, and the legislation means that China can be considered to have developed the necessary legislative framework to address watershed management issues in the country. Overall, watershed management has been becoming a core aspect of environmental reconstruction efforts in China. This is confirmed by China‘s Agenda 21 and the National Ecological Environmental Construction Plans (1996–2050), in which the government has identified watershed management as an important component of environmental reconstruction and sustainable development.  2.4  CURRENT PRIORITIES AND ISSUES FOR WATERSHED MANAGEMENT IN CHINA  Since the 1980s, China has been experiencing unprecedented economic development and social transition. As a result of rapid urbanization and industrialization, the conflict between population growth, resource exploitation, and ecosystem protection has become acute. The consequence is an environmental crisis and deficit in natural resources that have raised the importance of water issues and watershed management. These represent important, complex and challenging issues and are discussed below.  2.4.1 Water resource deficit and reallocation Water shortages are a key element for China‘s social and economic development and for 25  environmental protection. Currently, per capita water consumption in China is only 25% of the world average, and 2% of that in Canada. In China, 76% of cities now face water shortages (CAS Sustainable Development Strategic Research Group, 2007). The allocation of water resources has been an important issue throughout China‘s history. Water use is the main source of conflict between upstream and downstream users, and between different economic sectors relying on water (e.g., UN/World Water Assessment Programme, 2003; Grover, 2006; Cannon, 2006, and Gleick, 2008). The allocation of water has far-reaching implications for water supply, water transportation, fish resources, tourism, land degradation, the depletion of groundwater and pollution, and can even develop into international disputes. There are numerous water reallocation projects underway in China. The most influential project – the South-to-North Water Transfer Project – was launched on December, 27, 2002. The project has proposed that by 2050, around 45 billion m3 of water a year will be transferred annually from the Yangtze River through the Eastern, Central and Western Canals to the Yellow River, Huai River and Hai River basin, where there are serious water deficits (e.g., Gleick, 2008). The estimated cost is $60 billion (US Embassy, 2003; Zhu, 2006). Many issues, such as the environmental impact and the resettlement of locals, together with numerous organizational and financial issues, remain unresolved.  2.4.2 Floods and droughts In China, most flood control facilities have a capacity to protect against floods with a 20–50 year return period (CAS Sustainable Development Strategic Research Group, 2007). However, the losses attributable to floods have been increasing. In the 1990s, the average annual losses caused by flooding were about US$ 15 billion (110 billion RMB), about 1.8% of the annual GDP. In particularly bad years, such as 1991, 1994, 1996 and 1998, the costs were equivalent to about 3–4% of GDP. These figures compare with 0.1% and 0.3%, respectively, in the USA and Japan (China‘s Water Management Modernization Research Group (CWMMRG), 2004). The CWMMRG (2002) study suggested that the national economic capacity of China can only bear losses equivalent to 0.6%. The economic losses, combined with an annual average death total of 1537 people, indicate the need for the immediate introduction of steps to reduce the extent of flooding. The losses caused by droughts vary from year to year, but are equally great. In the 1990s, the average annual loss was equivalent to 1.1% of GDP, and in 2000, the figure was 2.5%. A target of limiting average annual drought losses to 0.8% of GDP has now been set (Zhou, 2007).  2.4.3 Pollution and the degradation of ecosystems Population expansion, the rapid development of the economy and environmental degradation are closely linked in China. Water pollution accidents have received frequent attention from the mainstream media – as with the Tuo (Sichuan) River in 2004, and the Songhua (Heilongjiang), Bei (Guangdong), and Zhi (Hunnan) Rivers in 2005. Pollution-related GDP losses reached 3.05% of the total GDP in 2004 (State Environmental Protection Administration and the National Bureau of Statistics of China, 2006; Qiu, 2007). The environmental pollution costs include costs of 10 items, such as health, agricultural and materials losses caused by air pollution; health, industrial and agricultural production losses, and water shortage caused by water pollution; economic loss caused by land occupation of solid wastes and etc.. Environmental problems, and in particular the large numbers of natural disasters since the 1990s, have forced national, 26  provincial and city governments to acknowledge the importance of environmental restoration and rehabilitation (Economy, 2004; An et al., 2007). The most obvious steps in the mitigation of the environmental degradation include the headwater logging bans, the western development program, and the six national forestry programs (Wang et al., 2007). However, even with these steps, frequent reports in the media indicate that the pressure for economic development is forcing provincial and city governments to proceed with developments that are clearly destined to create environmental problems. The increasing divergence between the environmental protection aims of the Central Government and the practices of local governments, as exemplified by the debate over the introduction of a green GDP, is likely to be a source of increasing conflict in the future, and is discussed below.  2.4.4 Institutional issues In China, watershed management systems overlap greatly. At the level of the central government, the Ministry of Water Resources Management (MoWRM) is responsible for basin management and, as a result, basin administration committees have been established for each of the seven main rivers. These oversee flood mitigation, sediment and drought control, water pollution along the sub-basin borders, water resources programs and other related affairs. However, at the provincial and local level, local Departments of Water Resources are responsible for withinjurisdiction development. These local departments have been playing a dominant role in water resources management, while the federal river basin committees have failed to fulfill their anticipated roles (He and Chen, 2001). He and Chen (2001) have also drawn attention to the overlap in responsibilities between the MoWRM, the State Environmental Protection Agency (which is responsible for water quality protection and management), and several other agencies, such as agriculture, forestry and transportation. For example, the State Forestry Administration normally has responsibility for forest and watershed management in headwater areas of watersheds, whereas the Ministry of Agriculture is responsible for farmland and livestock husbandry management in the middle and lower reaches of watersheds. Departments responsible for water transportation, energy development, fisheries and tourism may also have responsibilities for the planning and management of water and riparian resources. The diversity of responsibilities means that individual agencies will only take responsibility for those aspects in which they have an interest, and no single agency will assume responsibility for any watershed damage that may occur (He and Chen, 1998).  2.4.5 Lack of public participation In China, public participation in planning and management is viewed as a voluntary activity and is relatively rare. In legal instruments, guidelines and principles for public input are sometimes provided, but these are generally not supported by any clear legislation (He and Chen, 2001; and Hu and Yu, 2005). For example, with the South-to-North Water Transfer Project described above, the public, including researchers, have been refused access to the planning process. Jiang (1999) conducted a public opinion poll that demonstrated that only 10% of respondents had even heard of this massive project. In addition to the lack of participation by the general public, potential opponents to any projects, who often include experts in the subject, tend to be excluded from any consultation (He et al., 2001). Current practice tends to favour a process by which an 27  agency or company developing a proposal will only consider favourable comments, which are then presented to the decision-making authority; any objections are ignored, even if they are based on objective studies of the project. Wang et al. (2008) conducted a questionnaire survey of public participation in watershed planning in the Min River Watershed, with the results indicating that only 11% of respondents had heard of or participated in public activities related to the watershed. More than 87% of respondents are neither heard from nor participate in any public event (see Chapter 8). Many of the current issues facing watershed management arise from planning procedures, the governance structure and the management tools that are currently in use (Wang, 1999; Yang et al., 2006). The main problems can be related to a lack of effective and integrated watershed planning, a lack of participation amongst stakeholders, the lack of management guidelines appropriate to the various scales of the watershed, and the absence of any planning for ecological restoration. Unlike the US and Canada, China as a centralised country, governance is adversely impacted by the lack of a basin-level management commission operating as an umbrella body that could delegates management roles and responsibilities to tributary and locallevel bodies, the inefficiency of interagency cooperation, overlapping mandates amongst agencies, and the general malfunctioning of the governance systems (CCICED, 2005; Yang et al., 2006). Management could be more effective if provided with the appropriate tools, including practical policy guidelines, support for new technology, adequate long-term monitoring and surveillance, and mechanisms that would encourage public participation in planning and governance (CCICED, 2005; Yang et al., 2006).  2.5  ASSESSMENT OF CHINA’S WATER RESOURCES STRESS  An important element of this review is to assess the distribution of water stress across China as a key indicator for regional watershed management. The critical ranges and definition of stress indexes are still being actively discussed in the water resources community (e.g., Pfannkuch, 2003; Rijsberman, 2006). In China, the variation in topography, precipitation, natural resources, population, and economic development means that watershed management should be balanced with local socio-economic and cultural development as well as with environmental protection. There has been a considerable amount of research on this issue (e.g., Han and Ruan, 2002; Zhu et al., 2003; Jia et al., 2002; Zhu et al., 2003; Gu et al., 2007), mainly utilizing the same weightings or averages. Here, I have adopted indictors and standardized data from the China Sustainable Development Strategy Report 2007 developed by the Sustainable Development Strategic Research Group of the China Academy of Science. I used Hierarchical Cluster Analysis to classify 31 province/cities in China. The criteria and data collection are described below.  2.5.1 Water stress assessment indictors The most widely used indicator of water stress is the Falkenmark indicator (Falkenmark et al., 1989). Falkenmark et al. (1989) suggested 1700 m3 of renewable water resources per capita per year as a threshold, based on water requirements in the household, agricultural, industrial and energy sectors, and the needs of the environment. If water supply falls below 1000 m3, a country will experience water scarcity, and below 500 m3, absolute scarcity. The approach is easy to 28  apply and understand, but does help to explain the true of water scarcity, and the multiple indicators are not widely applied due to the lack of data availability and definitions that are not intuitive (Rijsberman, 2006). It is beyond the scope of this review to evaluate the water stress criteria and indicators used by, amongst others, Shikomanov (1991), Raskin et al. (1997), Alcomo et al. (2000), Vorosmarth et al. (2000) and Rijsberman (2006). Gleick (2002) provides a thorough overview of the history, background, and limitations of water indicators and indices as measures of water well-being. Here, I use the data and criteria agreed by scientists from the Sustainable Development Research Group of China Academy of Science. The criteria and data are derived from the China Sustainable Development Strategy Report (2007). According to this report, water stress in China can be measured by three criteria: water resource stress, water environmental stress and water ecological stress. These three are further represented by eight indicators. Figure 2–1 shows the framework of water stress assessment, and Table 2–1 presents some of the data from the reports. Water resource stress is a criterion that reflects the capacity of a region to supply water for targeted activities. There are three key indicators. The first is water scarcity, which is derived from water resource per capita and water distribution (density). The key threshold is 1700 m 3 of renewable water resources per capita per year. The second indicator is water demand, the consumption by human activities. The demand is represented by a number of ratios: renewal of water resources and arable land, renewal of water resources and mining, renewal of water resources and population, and renewal of water resources and GDP. The third indicator is water utilization, a combination of the degree of water exploration, and the ratio of water use structure and water use sufficiency. The critical ratio is water withdrawal for human use to total renewable water resources; and a threshold value of 40% has been set (Rijsberman, 2006). Water environmental stress is a criterion dealing with water pollution from human activities, such as industrial and urban untreated waste water, and agricultural pollution. The two indicators are water point source pollution (determined by the amount of untreated urban and industrial waste discharge) and water non-point source pollution, calculated indirectly from the use of fertilizers, herbicides and pesticides. Water ecological stress is a criterion related to the local ecological problems created by the inappropriate use of water resources. The three indicators are land degradation, derived from soil degradation and soil erosion, water-related disasters, determined by the incidence of floods and drought, and water ecological health, determined by the water demand for maintaining ecosystems such as wetlands.  29  Water stress  Water resource stress  Water environmental stress  Scarcity  Water  Water  /Richness  demand  utilization  Point pollution  Non-point pollution  Water ecological stress  Soil degradation  Water related disasters  Water ecological health  Figure 2-1. The framework of water stress assessment in China (Adapted from the China Sustainable Development Strategy Report, 2007).  30  Table 2-1. Standardized water stress indicators in different regions*. (Adapted from the China Sustainable Development Strategy Report, 2007). Water resource stress  Beijing Tianjing Hebei Shanxi Inner Mongolia Liaoning Jilin Heilongjiang Shanghai Jiangsu Zhejiang Anhui Fujian Jiangxi Shandong Henan Hubei Hunan Guangdong Guangxi Hainan  Water environmental stress  Water ecological stress  Number  Scarcity/ Richness  Demand  Utilization  Point pollution  Non-point pollution  Soil degradation  Water related disasters  Water ecological health  1 2 3 4  0.535 0.71 0.775 0.835  0.167 0.109 0.555 0.296  0.423 0.58 0.823 0.56  0.843 0.814 0.355 0.21  0.565 0.28 0.295 0.04  0.183 0.029 0.331 0.418  0.406 0.572 0.477 0.853  0.568 0.553 0.578 0.421  5  0.605  0.173  0.68  0.009  0  0.848  1  0.367  6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21  0.365 0.16 0.18 0.495 0.41 0.16 0.315 0 0 0.044 0.415 0.235 0.06 0.19 0 0  0.245 0.095 0.273 0.299 0.505 0.113 0.381 0 0 0.68 0.505 0.073 0 0.208 0.132 0  0.507 0.483 0.597 0.58 0.683 0.353 0.453 0.387 0.477 0.59 0.467 0.457 0.473 0.39 0.55 0.577  0.031 0.002 0.004 0.566 0.067 0.001 0.003 0 0 0.051 0.025 0.004 0.001 0.001 0 0  0.165 0.08 0.025 0.525 0.585 0.58 0.365 1 0.44 0.525 0.44 0.575 0.585 0.715 0.3 0.505  0.244 0.126 0.148 0 0.028 0.127 0.095 0.086 0.148 0.161 0.127 0.23 0.134 0.044 0.031 0.011  0.97 0.883 0.63 0.084 0.318 0.213 0.535 0.29 0.396 0.455 0.381 0.662 0.456 0.228 0.383 0.39  0.08 0 0.231 0.167 0.167 000 000 0.01 0.072 0.022 0.126 0 0 0 0 0  31  Table 2-1. Standardized water stress indicators in different regions. (Adapted from the China Sustainable Development Strategy Report, 2007). (Cont.)  Number  Water resource stress Scarcity/ Demand Utilization Richness  Water environmental stress Point Non-point pollution pollution  Soil degradation  Water ecological stress Water related Water ecological disasters health  Chongqing  22  0.205  0.018  0.3  0.001  0.17  0.444  0.552  0  Sichuan  23  0  0  0.393  0  0.195  0.227  0.375  0  Guizhou  24  0.13  0.028  0.38  0  0  0.295  0.351  0  Yunnan  25  0  0  0.517  0  0.035  0.254  0.347  0.333  Tibet  26  0  0  0.653  0  0  0.336  0.132  0  Shaanxi  27  0.29  0.244  0.46  0.001  0.095  0.552  0.741  0.11  Gansu  28  0.68  0.153  0.683  0.008  0.02  0.733  0.799  0.215  Qinghai  29  0.105  0.25  0.49  0  0.015  0.382  0.967  0.079  Ningxia  30  0.995  0.089  0.997  0.474  0.02  0.941  0.641  0.5  Xinjiang  31  0.34  0.042  0.82  0  0.03  0.941  0.316  0.255  (* data have been standardized for further analysis. Here 1 is high stress, while 0 is low)  32  2.5.2 Hierarchical Cluster Analysis: SPSS 15 was used to conduct hierarchical cluster analysis for the data set to classify water stress in China. The analysis tested 3 to 6 groups and used the between-groups linkage method and squared Euclidean distance. The results (Figure 2–2) indicate that the provinces in China can be classified into three distinct groups in relation to water stress.  Figure 2-2. The result of cluster analysis of water stress assessment in China  33  The first group consists of Ningxia, Xinjiang, Gansu, Shanxi and Inner Mongolia, where four most important factors- water scarcity and utilization from water resources stress, and soil degradation and water related disaster from water ecological stress. Water stress is the result of a lack of precipitation, and where there are significant problems associated with land degradation, drought and aquatic ecosystems (Table 2-3). The area accounts for over one-third (36%) of China‘s total territory. The second group comprises Beijing, Tianjing, Hebei and Shanghai, where the most important issue is population-induced stress, resulting in high volumes of water utilization, water pollution from untreated industrial waste, urban sewage, and ecological problems as well agricultural-related pollution. The third group consists of the rest of China, where the ratio of water resource, population, land mass and economic development structure lies between the first and second groups. The water resources are relatively abundant, and the key factors from these areas are water related disaster and water utilization. Comparing to the original report used relatively simple calculations based on the same weight for each indicator and averaged all of the indicators together, then ranked by province. The results were grouped using the traditional distribution of Chinese industry (e.g., East, West, Centre and Northeast Industrial areas) and economic regions (Northeast, Northwest, Southwest, China North, China East and Central South), respectively, to compare water stress among the regions.  Figure 2-3. Map of water stress in China (Taiwan and the islands of the Southern China Sea are excluded due to lack of data). The limitation of this analysis is that it only provides a general picture of regional water stress, and cannot be readily downscaled to smaller regions, such as cities, counties or watersheds. Watersheds are a more appropriate scale to understand water production/consumption. However, water is quite different from a static resource such as land, as it occurs in a very dynamic cycle of rain, runoff and evaporation, with enormous temporal and spatial variation (Rijsberman, 2006). The development of water-related infrastructure, including dams, canals, irrigation systems and waste treatment plants, as well as the characteristics of water utilization, make any assessment very difficult. 34  Table 2-2. Cluster grouping for water stress in Mainland China. Water environmental stress NonPoint Utilization point pollution pollution  Water resource stress Group  Water ecological stress Soil degradation  Water Water Average related ecologic disasters health  Scarcity  Demand  Group 1  0.691  0.151  0.748  0.140  0.022  0.776  0.722  0.352  0.450  Group 2  0.629  0.283  0.602  0.645  0.416  0.136  0.385  0.467  0.445  Group 3  0.148  0.170  0.484  0.009  0.336  0.192  0.484  0.056  0.235  Group  Region  Group 1  Ningxia, Xinjiang, Gansu, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia  Group 2  Beijing, Tianjing, Hebei and Shanghai Liaoning, Jilin, Qinghai, Shaanxi, Heilongjiang, Sichuan, Guizhou, Chongqing, Yunnan, Tibet, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Anhui, Fujian  Group 3  35  2.6  THREE CASES OF INTEGRATED WATERSHED MANAGEMENT IN CHINA  Appropriate watershed management is required if problems such as soil erosion, land degradation, declining water quality, depletion of wetlands and accelerated loss of biodiversity are to be addressed. The need is particularly great in China due to problems such as loss of water supply, severe flooding, and the spread of water-borne disease, shortages of food from crops that are dependent on irrigation (e.g., rice), land degradation, land-use change and soil and water contamination. By adopting a watershed management approach, the complex nature of cause-effect systems that determine such problems will be better understood (e.g., Yang et al.; 2006, CCICED, 2005). In addition to considering biophysical cause-effect relationships, integrated watershed management, involving the integration of social, economic and environmental factors, needs to be practised. This will require comprehensive interagency coordination, the cooperation of different levels of government, partnerships between the public and private sectors and the identification of an appropriate balance between development and protection (e.g., Calder, 1999; Yang et al., 2006). In China, priorities for watershed management are the reduction of flooding and drought, the generation of power, changes in land management practices, reductions in the pressures on floodplains, and an increase in food supply (Yang et al., 2006; CAS Sustainable Development Strategic Research Group, 2007). This will require a dynamic process of cooperation, coordination and compromise, with a combination of appropriate administration, marketing mechanisms, enforcement of legal obligations, and public consultation and participation. There are a number of examples of the introduction of an integrated approach to watershed management in China. Some of these are described below.  2.6.1 The Mountain–River–Lake (MRL) program of Jiangxi province The Mountain–River–Lake program, developed and implemented by the Jiangxi provincial government, appears to be unique in China, and is an example of successful watershed management. Its research approach, level of planning and intensive implementation led to the program being selected as a key Chinese project presented at the technical fair associated with the 1992 UN Conference on Environment and Development in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. It was also featured at the Hannover World Expo in 2000 and at the Sustainable Development Summit in Johannesburg, South Africa, in 2002. The MRL program promotes the sustainable development of the region through environmentally sound policies, integrated regional management and the protection of the water resources (all of which were issues featured in Agenda 21). Setting and issues Jiangxi province is situated on the south bank of the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze River, with almost all (97.2%) of the land surface draining into Poyang Lake. At 162,250 km 2, it is the largest freshwater lake in China. It collects water from the Gan, Fu, Xin, Rao and Xiu Rivers and releases the water into the Yangtze River. In the past, a rapid increase in the population of the area resulted in the conversion of forest in the catchment to grain production, land reclamation from the lake, pollution and over-fishing. In the early 1980s, the area impacted by 36  water and soil erosion in the upper reaches of the Gan River reached 17,732 km2, accounting for more than 54% of the area (Gong et al., 2006). Forest cover was reduced to 31.5%. The surface area of Poyang Lake was significantly reduced, its ecological functions were compromised, and floods occurred regularly. Sedimentation in the lower reaches was excessive, and the length of navigable channels was reduced from 12,000 km to 5,000 km. Adverse ecosystem effects were seen, including loss of biodiversity and the spread of disease (specifically, shistosomiasis). The degradation of the ecosystem was accompanied by increasing poverty, which proved extremely difficult to eradicate because of the connections between the environmental state of the watershed and its economy (Hu, 2005). The dominant problems in the watershed (MRL, 2006) can be summarized as: -  Upper Reaches: serious water and soil erosion and loss of forest cover Middle Reaches: serious water pollution and siltation Lower Reaches (and the lake): reduction in the area of the lake, loss of biodiversity, increased frequency of flooding, development of a shistosomiasis epidemic The whole MRL Region: ecological imbalance and environmental deterioration, economic impoverishment and reduction in living standards  Development of a remediation program The MRL program was based on a detailed examination of the watershed designed to assess its current status, involving more than 600 scientists. This enabled the principal problems to be identified, and established the cause-effect links for those problems. A management strategy was developed that emphasized the inter-dependencies within the watershed: ―to manage the lake the river must be harnessed, to harness the river the mountain must be managed, to manage the mountain poverty must be alleviated, and to alleviate poverty the human resource capacity must be strengthened‖ (MRL, 2006, p.12). It was realized by the program managers that regional social and economic development would require comprehensive watershed management, environmental protection, and the rehabilitation and reconstruction of fragile ecosystems. In addition, a pilot study was needed to explore and foster industrial models of sustainable development based on reasonable levels of exploitation of natural resources. A commission and office was established to coordinate cooperation between agencies and between organizations located along the upper and lower reaches of the watershed. The governor or vice governor of Jiangxi province acted as the Director General of the commission. The functions of the commission included (MRL, 2006): -  Identification of broad watershed issues, development of management plans, and the conduct of holistic research and pilot studies. Facilitation of the cooperation between the upper and lower reaches and between different agencies with an interest in the watershed. Organization of international and national cooperation and technical exchanges.  A comprehensive investigation of the resources and environment of the Poyang Lake watershed enabled the local government and legislative body in Jiangxi to develop and approve a detailed legislative base for the management of the watershed, including 29 local statutes and 28 administrative regulations since 1985. At the same time, a long-term education program has 37  been undertaken throughout the province that appears to have raised awareness of the laws, strengthened their enforcement, and improved the overall protection of the environment and the development of natural resources. Major programs in the Poyang Lake watershed Several large-scale projects have been launched over the last 20 years. About US$ 1.2 billion has been invested in a watershed ecosystem restoration program, which includes the return of reclaimed farmland to the lake, the reinforcement of the main banks, the relocation of households to new towns, and the eradication of the seasonal flooding of economically important land. Critical fragile ecological areas have been restored, the area of wetland has been greatly expanded, and the surface area of the lake increased by about 1200 km2 (Hu, 2005). This program has been so successful that Poyang Lake is now recognized as an internationally important wetland by the Ramsar Convention and several other international agreements. A program has been created that will ensure the better collaboration of different sectors, including plantation forestry, fisheries and agriculture through environment-friendly production techniques. Organic foods and products are being promoted, and attempts are being made to reduce soil and water erosion and untreated rural sewage. Several more sustainable farming models have been widely adopted, including the combinations of ―vegetable–duck/chicken– fish‖, ―vegetable–pig–biogas–fruit‖ and ―vegetable–pig–fish–fruit‖. Rural households are combining latrines, barns and biogas ponds: faeces are fermented in the biogas pond, where the organic matter is decomposed and harmful bacteria are killed. The gas that is produced is used to provide energy for cooking and lighting. The biomass liquor is used as a fertilizer (MRL, 2006). A comprehensive program has been developed to control shistosomiasis, a disease that has been present in the Poyang Lake area for many years (Hu, 2005). The program aims to prevent people from contacting contaminated water from the main water body by converting low-lying land into fish ponds, planting trees around the lake shore to establish a physical barrier, converting highland paddy fields into dry agriculture, preventing herds of grazing animals from accessing the lakeshore during the epidemic season, and popularizing public health education at grassroots levels. Poverty alleviation has been incorporated into the program to make it more attractive to local people. Another program has aimed at strengthening local production through provision of more efficient processes. Based on industrial cluster theory (Porter, 1998) and its successful application along the east coast of China, the program has focused on the development of local economic activity through the integration of raw material production, products processing, logistics and marketing. The model is based on the concept that households manage agricultural raw materials, but have them processed at centralized locations. The centralized company is responsible for processing the products (in some cases it is local household associations and a company that jointly develop the manufacturing facility). The company or market centre is responsible for promoting the products. In these models, multiple mutual beneficial and risktaking agreements have been signed to ensure the rights, benefits and responsibilities of all parties. Today, this model is widely adopted for activities as diverse as navel orange production in southeast Jiangxi, tea production in eastern Jiangxi, vegetable oil production in Yichun, Jiangxi, and aquaculture in eastern Jiangxi (Liu, 2005).  38  2.6.2 Min River Watershed management, Fujian Setting The Min River is located in south-eastern China, between 116°30‘ and 119°30‘ E and 25°20‘ and 28°25‘ N. It is the biggest river in Fujian Province and is among the ten biggest rivers in China (Figure 1–1). The headwaters of the Min River are situated at an elevation of about 2115 m in the Wuyi Mountains in the northwestern section of Fujian. Flowing generally east through the cities of Sanming, Nanping, and Fuzhou, the catchment covers an area of 60,992 km 2 and the river travels 2,872 km to reach the sea. The main river has a length of 559 km. The Min River has played and continues to play an important role in the social, environmental and economic development of Fujian Province. Almost one-third of Fujian‘s population of approximately 11 million people live in the watershed. It accounts for over half of the total agricultural production, two-thirds of the commercial logging, and 60% of the drinking water in the province. GDP is around US$ 21.3 billion, 38% of provincial GDP and the watershed accounts for 57% of the industrial production of Fujian Province (Fujian Provincial Bureau of Statistics, 2005). The watershed is used for generating hydroelectricity for urban and industrial use, irrigation, flood control, navigation, recreation, fishing and wildlife conservation. There are 29 large-scale hydropower stations in the watershed. A major construction project began in 1985, at ShuiKou (Figure 1–2), in Minqing County, to develop a power generation capacity of 1.4 million kilowatts annually. It is the biggest hydro-electric power plant in East China. The project was completed in 1996 and involved the resettlement of 67,000 people displaced by the floodwaters (Fujiann Chorography Compilation Committee, 2002). In addition to generating power, the dam is expected to help control flooding in the Min River Watershed. Major problems The Min River Watershed has a flabellate structure. The upper reach of the river is located within two main mountain groups: the Wuyi and Jiufeng–Daiyun Mountains. These mountains lie parallel to the coastline. The undulating topography and flabelliform layout of the terrain determine its vulnerability. The three main tributaries, the Jiangxi, Futunxi and Shaxi, join at the confluence in Nanping. The three tributaries drain 70% of the watershed, and 75–85% of the total discharge is present at the confluence. Downstream, the river flows through a narrow, steep, middle reach. Most rainfall occurs during the Monsoon season; the ―plum rains‖ occur from March to June, accounting for 50–60% of precipitation, and the typhoon rains occur from July to September, accounting for 20–40% of precipitation. Warm, humid air blows from the Pacific Ocean across the mountains, and the topography results in large amounts of orographic rainfall. Forest degradation linked to increase flooding. In recent years, over-cutting of the forest in the watershed has led to soil erosion, stream sedimentation, flooding and increased run-off (e.g., Chen, 1994; Zhao, 1997; Pan, 2003; Xie, 2004). Large clear-cuts and burning have caused erosion and reduced land productivity (Zhang, 1997; Lu and Gao, 2001; Tian, 2005). The natural forest cover (which consists of evergreen broadleaf forest) has declined by 43.5% over the last 27 years. The change in land-use pattern, especially a shift from natural vegetation to plantations and orchards has also decreased water retention and compromised soil conservation. For example, while the water-holding capacity of natural forest land is about 130 mm m-2, that of tea plantations (classified in China as orchards) is approximately 27 mm m-2 (Wang, 1996). 39  There has been a significant change in the pattern of floods in the watershed over the last twenty years. Historical records indicate that there were 235 floods in the watershed between 982 AD and 1948. Since 1948, there have been 20 serious floods, with the flooding becoming more intense and severe since 1990. The statistics indicate that the return period of serious flooding (defined as a flow event of 20,000 m3 s-1 at Zhuqi Hydrological Station) has decreased from once every four years over the last 100 years to every two years over the last 50 years, and has reached up to once or twice a year in the last 10 years. The most serious flooding in the history of the watershed (since 1609) occurred in 1998, with 175 fatalities and seven million people adversely affected, costing the province US$ 1.2 billion, including both direct and indirect damage (Zhang et al., 2000). Inappropriate land management practices are exacerbating the magnitude of the damage. Traditional forest management practices in the watershed include clear-cutting, site preparation and cultivation that involves exposing the subsoil (―turnover cultivation‖ or tilling) 2 , litter raking, large-scale monoculture plantations, and logging without leaving buffer zones in the riparian areas. Traditional agricultural practices include planting crops on steep slopes, tilling approaches to weed control in orchards (tea and fruit) and widespread use of herbicides, pesticides, and fertilizers to increase productivity. In recent years, fish farming in rice fields and reservoirs has become one of the main sources of water contamination. The poor management and over-exploitation of agricultural and forest plantation land has not only led to the degradation of ecosystems, soil erosion and stream sedimentation, but also lowered the soil productivity of the watershed and increased water contamination (Tang, 2003). Forest land represents 67% of the total area of eroding land, with orchards making up 25.8%, and crops 5.5% (Chen, 2000). Soil erosion has lowered land productivity, resulting in the increased use of chemical fertilizers in agricultural and plantation areas, adding to the pollution load and decreasing the soil infiltration capacity. Industry pollution There are now 1,135 industrial mills along the Min River. Annually, 34.5 million tonnes of industrial wastes drain into the river. 85 mills generate over 0.5 million tonnes of waste water per year; 17 of these are pulp and paper manufacturers, 23 are chemical works, and seven comprise metallurgical industries (Chen, 2000). The main contaminants in the water are petroleum-derived wastes and amino-nitrogen; these have been exceeding class III of the national standard (Surface Water Quality National Standard, GB3838–88) by about 50% and 51%, respectively. In recent years, the rapid development of the animal husbandry industry has caused serious pollution in some segments of the watershed, with the industry contributing 62.5% of the total COD discharge and 63% of ammonia and nitrogen discharge. The waste discharge from residential areas in 2002 was 277 million tonnes, whereas that from industry was 280 million tonnes. Fertilizer use in the watershed was equivalent to 165,000 tonnes of nitrogen and 57,000 tonnes of phosphorous. The use of pesticide and herbicide amounted to 21,000 tonnes in 2003. In 2006, there were 12 accidents related to water pollution, and 23,741 environment-related conflicts. Official estimates (Fujian Environmental Protection Agency, 2005) indicate that by 2010 and 2017, the watershed GDP will be increased by a factor of 1.6 and 2.8, respectively (on the 2004 value), and urbanization will reach 54% and 63%, 2  There is no English term for the soil cultivation practice used in China that involves turning over the soil regularly to remove all weeds. The nearest equivalent is tilling (Bruce Larson, University of British Columbia, pers. com., May 2008). 40  respectively. By 2004, watershed total COD and ammonia and nitrogen had reached 38.2% and 86%, respectively, of the capacity of the watershed environment. Impacts on local communities Many cities, including Jiangou, Jiangyang, Sanming, and Shaxia, are located at the confluence of the three tributaries. About five million people inhabiting the basin are at risk from natural disasters and pollution. The Shuiko dam has reduced discharge and raised water levels upstream. Control of discharge from the reservoir is vitally important for the people both above and below the dam. Due to the huge increase in population and expansion of cities and farming areas along the lower reaches of the river, Fuzhou municipality, with three million people, faces extreme water shortages every late summer and early autumn. Since 1996, the water level has remained 0.5 meters below the top of the diversion tunnel for more than six months each year (Fujian Chorography Compilation Committee, 2002). Lack of public participatory and interagency communication Although the watershed falls within the Fujian provincial territories, the river also crosses the boundaries of 36 counties and cities. The experience of recent watershed management suggests that a successful watershed management program largely depends on coordination among the counties and cities. The coordination of information sharing, planning, implementation and monitoring is paramount, especially the coordination between upstream and downstream administrations. Currently there are more than ten government agencies involved in the watershed administration, risking miscommunication and duplication of effort. Upstream forest management, agricultural practices, industrial sites, and pollution treatments are having a major impact on downstream sedimentation and water pollution. Participation by farmers in the planning process and public involvement in management are both rare in China, but remain keys to the success of integrated watershed management. Until now, a ―top-down‖ approach has been adopted, with central and provincial governments ignoring local stakeholders. The absence of any participatory decision-making amongst local communities and farmers, together with a lack of public education, have been claimed to be the main factors causing the failure of the programs (Wang, 1999; Jones et al., 2002). Program for improvement The health of the Min River Watershed is important to Fujian‘s social, cultural, environmental and economic development. In 2005, the Fujian Provincial government promulgated the Resolution on Comprehensive Measurements on Harnessing the Min River Environmental Issues (Fujian MZB (2005) 93) and the Min River Watershed Protection Plans (2006 – 2020) (Fujian Environmental Protection Agency, 2005). Between 2006 and 2010, the Fujian government is investing US$ 829.8 million in combating soil erosion, water contamination and flooding. There are several major elements to this investment program, described below. One aspect will focus on developing comprehensive approaches to deal with water pollution from animal husbandry and aquaculture in the watershed by developing a zoning system, detailed monitoring and procedures for the recycling of waste. Local householders will be encouraged to develop innovative toilet, kitchen, and sewage outlet systems by adapting the ―pig–biogas–grass–pig‖ cycle, or the ―pig–biogas–fruit/tree/fungi/fish‖ cycle. Self-contained waste recycling systems will be encouraged. There will also be a focus on helping to develop municipal waste processing systems within the current economic models, such as BOT (build– 41  operate–transfer), wherein a private entity receives a franchise from the public sector to finance, design, construct, and operate a facility for a specified period, after which ownership is transferred back to the public sector. During the time that the company operates the facility, it is allowed to charge users appropriate tolls, fees, rentals, and charges (as detailed in an initial contract) to enable the project proponent to recover the initial investment, together with covering the operating and maintenance expenses of the project. A second component is related to headwater protection and ecological restoration programs. Amongst other things, this part of the program is identifying headwater areas in need of protection. The restoration projects involve five steps, including the establishment of monitoring systems, the replacement of old machinery and technology, the promotion of ISO 14000 environmental management systems certification, the removal of dams, hydroelectric power stations and mining sites from ecologically sensitive areas and the rehabilitation of natural forests and ecological forests. A third component consists of a recycling pilot study and demonstration program. This component is promoting energy and resource conservation, the more efficient use of resources and the development of recycling. The pilot study includes industrial, agricultural and regional recycling. The demonstration projects are based on the concept of ―integration, circulation, coordination, and regeneration‖, and have developed different ecological agriculture models, such as an agroforestry model, a biogas model and a household-contained circulation model. The final component relates to support for watershed management. It establishes the head of the local government as the individual legally responsible for regional environmental issues, environmental emergency response and pollution control. Under the umbrella provided by the local government chief‘s responsibility, an interagency cooperation coordination committee has been developed involving various levels of government. The committee consists of department heads from watershed-related sectors, such as forestry, agriculture, land resources management, environment protection, water resources management, health, finance, and planning. This committee is tasked with developing comprehensive watershed management plans and identifying the necessary financing sources, with identifying the responsibilities of each agency, with clarifying the mechanisms for interagency cooperation, and with encouraging public participatory mechanisms.  2.6.3 The Tai Lake experience Setting Tai Lake, with a surface area of 2,428 km2, is the third largest freshwater lake in China. It is located in a sub-watershed of the Yangtze River in the centre of the Yangtze River Delta. Tai Lake serves multiple functions amongst which are floodwater storage, irrigation, navigation, water supply, waste disposal, aquaculture and tourism. It is the main source of drinking water for areas such as Wuxi and Suzhou. The lake is the site of China's most rapid urbanization and one of the largest influxes of rural migrant labour in the country. It currently serves more than 45.3 million people. The area is characterized by rapid economic development and the GNP of the Tai Lake watershed accounts for about 11.6% of China‘s GNP (MoWRM, 2008). In the period from 1980 to 2005, GDP increased from US$ 13.5 billion to US$ 303 billion, an annual increase of 11.6 % (Jin et al., 2006). As industrial enterprises gradually replace farming as the 42  most important source of employment in the delta, the uncontrolled disposal of untreated wastes has increased along regional waterways, all of which lead into the lake. The local governments have allocated substantial budgets to combat pollution and reduce the rate of eutrophication. However, Chang (2002) has argued that these efforts have failed to address the primary cause of the problem: watershed damage arising from untreated household and industrial wastes, uncontrolled construction, aggressive conversion of wetland and riparian zones, and uncoordinated dam and weir management. The main problems A number of problems can be identified in the Tai Lake catchment. There is a major issue surrounding the demand for water, which exceeds supply. The average annual rainfall in the watershed is about 1141 mm (varying from 680 to 1550 mm), and the total received water is about 414 x 108 m3. Of this, about 162.3 x 108 m3 is usable, with runoff accounting for 84%, and groundwater for 16% (Table 2–3) (Yang et al., 2004). The per capita consumption of water in the delta area is 450 m3, less than one fifth of national average (Gao and Miao, 2002; Ye, 2006). Rising pollution and the uneven temporal and spatial distribution of rainfall is exacerbating the conflict over water resources. Table 2-3. Distribution of water resources in the Tai Lake catchment (Adapted from Yang et al., 2004). (Unit: 108 m3) Precipitation Runoff Underground Total Upper reaches 204 71.6 5.8 77.4 Lower reaches 210 65.1 19.8 84.9 Total 414 137 25.6 162 As mentioned above, the extent and severity of water pollution is increasing (Ye, 2006). In the 1950s and 1960s, Tai Lake had low nutrient inputs. Since then, eutrophication has occurred and has been associated with deteriorating water quality, particularly at the northern end of the lake, where the Yangtze River brings in large amounts of untreated effluent. Eutrophication is particularly serious during the low water period, which is at its most extreme in March. As the lake has become more eutrophic, seasonal fluctuations in nutrient concentrations have also become greater (Chang, 2002). Yang et al. (2004) reported that the total discharge of waste water (from industry and households) during the year amounted to 50 x 108 m3. COD, BOD5 (biochemical oxygen demand), TN (total N) and TP (total P) concentrations were three times higher during the low water period than during the high water period. Flooding occurs frequently in the Tai Lake area. From the Wuyue (228 BC) to the Dongjing (410 AD) eras, historical records indicate that there were 38 floods over the 638 years, a frequency of one event every 17.4 years. During the 933 years that extended from the start of the North Song dynasty (978 AD) to the end of the Qing dynasty (1911), there were 288 floods, a frequency of one every 3.2 years. There have been 13 floods in the twentieth century (Gao and Miao, 2002). In last two decades the groundwater table has been dropping at a rate of 20–50 mm/year (Yang et al., 2004), with the cities of Shanghai, Suzhou, Wuxi, Changzhou and Jiaxin facing ever-increasing problems as a result. Tai Lake was once home to many species of endemic fish. However, the construction of dams and weirs in the waterways to connect the lake and the increased use of wetlands and riparian 43  zones since 1950 have resulted in many endemic fish species becoming endangered, including Chinese sturgeon (Acipenser sinensis), Reeves shad (Hilsa reevesii), Chinese paddlefish (Psephurus gladius) and Rough-skinned sculpin (Trachidermus fasciatus) (Sun, 2005). There have also been deleterious effects on water quality, fisheries resources, and aquatic life. Dams have reduced water exchange and increased the frequency of water re-use, directly contributing to increased eutrophication. Increased use of wetlands and riparian zones for rice and fish farming since the 1950s has significantly reduced the lake‘s size (Chang, 2002). Resolution of the problems According to a State Environmental Protection Administration of China Report (State Environmental Protection Agency, 2005), the Chinese government has considered the prevention of water pollution in Tai Lake as a top priority since 1990. In the 9th Five Year Plan period, the Central Government and local authorities invested about US$ 1.2 billion in water treatment, and the figure for the 10th Five Year Plan was US$ 1.6 billion (13.22 billion Yuan), accounting for 60.2% of the total investment of the Plan. In the 11th Five Year Plan (2006–2010), the government is removing contaminated sediment, protecting and improving drinking water resources, controlling non-point source pollution, and developing an integrated lake management plan. The State Council of China has approved the proposal of the Flood Protection Plans for Tai Lake Watershed to develop a holistic flooding control system and the reinforcement of the embankment systems around the lake (State Council of China, 2008). In order to improve environmental facilities, the Tai Lake Administration Authority and local city governments have developed a set of policies aimed at promoting market mechanisms to encourage environmental development, such as promoting the involvement of local private companies in municipal waste management, sewage water treatment and the development of service facilities. Waste management in particular has become an extremely profitable industry in China (e.g., Yang et al., 2006; Zhang, 2006). A water quality information exchange mechanism has been developed that should control water quality and enhance interagency cooperation. Information on water quality in border areas is released monthly. The People‘s Governments of Jiaxing and Suzhou have also set up mechanisms to both prevent pollution and provide early-warning of any pollution incidents (State Environmental Protection Agency, 2005). A major event, called the ―Tai Lak Zero Clock Action‖ was initiated by SEPA at midnight on January 1st, 1999. Local law enforcement agencies joined SEPA in examining the waste water, air and solids pollution around the lake. Overnight, infringements by 1035 manufacturing plants were detected; of these, 42 were forced to close (Xinhua, 1999). However, although there have been significant accomplishments, pollution in the lake basin still remains a major issue, with nitrogen remaining high, and eutrophication still occasionally evident in some areas. The three case studies described here should not be viewed as unqualified successes. Each has failed at some point, so there is no room for complacency. Moreover, in large-scale watersheds such as those of the Yangtze, Yellow and Huai Rivers, the situation is deteriorating. Current government plans to solve the fundamental problems of water contamination, soil erosion and water conservation are ambitious. However, central and provincial watershed development agendas and long-term investment plans are dominated by the construction of dams, diverse water facilities, canals, and water treatment plants. Soft-path solutions (Gleick, 2003) and 44  integrated watershed management are slowly developing from the grassroots level. The complexity of the social, economic and environmental expectations along with the existing culture of resource exploitation and the continued use of traditional management practices are severely complicating any attempts to resolve the problems.  2.7  INTEGRATED WATERSHED DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES  China‘s severe water pollution, water shortages and watershed destruction have contributed to population movement, health risks, and food security problems and rising income disparities, and ultimately, are affecting China‘s economic, political and social stability (Turner, 2006 and Gleick, 2008). A core strategy for watershed management is to balance development and protection in such a way that it is consistent with local social, economic and environmental needs. A key factor determining the success of any program is whether all the stakeholders can be brought together in planning and implementing watershed development strategies. The experience from Poyang Lake, Tai Lake and the Min River Watershed (also see CCICED, 2005; Yang et al., 2006), from the International Rhine Commission (Smits, 2005), Tennessee Valley Authority (USA) (Tan and Wan, 2001; and Yang et al., 2006 and Heathcote, 2009), the Fraser Basin Council (Canada) (Blomquist et al., 2005) and from many others (USEPA, 1997 and Mody, 2004) suggest that most problems have stemmed from centralized management approaches that failed to take into account the emphasis placed by local stakeholders on rapid economic growth (e.g. Wang, 1999; Yang et al., 2006). Given current trends, it is likely that watershed management issues will continue to dominate the environmental debate in China (Smits, 2005; Turner, 2006; and Gleick, 2008). A number of future issues can be identified, summarized below. Integrated watershed management represents an important approach to maintain and enhance watershed health. However, the evidence provided above indicates that the integration needs to be broad, and should include all aspects of watershed resources (natural resources, human resources, political resources and science and technology) and watershed issues (economic development, water shortages, natural disasters, biodiversity, soil erosion and sedimentation, resource depletion, poverty), as well as involving multiple agencies and jurisdictions and local communities (e.g. Smits, 2005; CCICED, 2005; and Yang et al., 2006). Smits (2005) and Yang et al. (2006) gave a thorough overview of the history, issues and development of the Rhine River and pointed out that China should motivate its own stakeholders and pull together watershed resources as much as possible in combating current watershed problems. There is a need for improved governance in the form of improved legal systems and the establishment of institutions responsible for the coordination of watershed management. The experiences from inside and outside of China, as I illustrated above, have shown that the development of integrated watershed management legislation, regulations and comprehensive management plans is an enormous step in securing the sustainability of watershed management. Such institutional arrangements secure the legal position of the coordinating institution, the obligations of the stakeholders, and the mechanisms to resolve any conflicts (Calder, 1999; Smits, 2005; Yang et al., 2005). An improvement in inter-governmental agency communication and in the communication 45  between stakeholders throughout the entire watershed is necessary. As with the evidence provided from the MRL program, each stakeholder group needs clear responsibilities, with the government adopting a leadership role, individual departments fulfilling their statutory responsibilities, adequate supervision by the environmental agency, appropriate treatment of effluents by local enterprises, and surveillance and participation by the public. An assessment of the effectiveness of watershed management should form the basis for the evaluation of the performance of those in control. The Central Government of China is introducing Green GDP and auditing systems that will allow the public and Central Government to assess the development of regional economies in the light of resource use and environmental degradation. These systems should promote a move away from the focus on economic development that currently dominates in most provinces. Effective implementation models are required (e.g. MRL, 2006, Lu et al., 2007). The principles of sustainable development (Muschett and Campbell, 1997) need to be used to guide watershed management. Appropriate plans need to be developed and implemented. A range of techniques should be employed. As indicated by the current water situation, governance approaches should include enhancing water use efficiency, environmental laws and regulation enforcement, the use of smart economics and market mechanisms, and improving public involvement (Gleick, 2008). An ecocentric approach (Smits, 2005) could be critically important. First, there is a need to try to understand the watershed ecosystem; then, via a bottom-up approach in which the local people are truly involved, alternative livelihoods that conflict as little as possible with nature should be identified. Market mechanisms could be combined with the financial leverage of government, so that watershed management could better balance the benefits of all stakeholders and thus gain their support (Smits, 2005, p35). Interdisciplinary research is needed to solve the complex integration of population, resources, environment and development. Particularly in China, social science research is needed on the introduction of democratic decision-making within the current Chinese governance systems (e.g. Wang, 2003; Yang et al., 2006, Gleick, 2008). Research is also required on ways to enhance public environmental education, and to encourage public participation in watershed planning and monitoring (Yang et al., 2006).  2.8  CONCLUSION  Watershed management has occurred throughout the history of Chinese civilization and there have been many success stories. However, as a result of the economic development and population growth over the last thirty years, ecosystem degradation and water pollution have become key issues jeopardizing the social structure, environmental protection and living conditions in China. China‘s current watershed management mechanisms do not deal with watershed problems effectively. Future watershed management in China should include the improvement of its legal system and law enforcement; the construction of an appropriate management structure, complete with inter-agency working mechanisms; the development of a structure that could better balance the interests of all stakeholders; an integrated approach to watershed planning; greater stakeholder participation; better information exchange, and better and more comprehensive public education.  46  2.9  REFERENCES  Alcamo, J., Henrichs, T. and Rosch, T. 2000. World water in 2025: global modeling and scenario analysis. In: Rijsberman, F.R. (Ed.), World Water Scenarios Analyses. World Water Council, Marseille, France. An, S., Li, H., Guan, B., Zhou, C., Wang, Z., Deng, Z., Zhi, Y., Liu, Y., Xu, C., Fang, S., Jiang, J. and Li, H. 2007. China's natural wetlands: Past problems, current status, and future challenges. Ambio 36(4), 335–342. Anonymous 2007. Zhengbai Irrigation Canal. 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China Water Resources Management Publishing House: Beijing, 305pp. Zheng, L.D. 2006. JingHang Canal: the epic of the Mother Earth. China National Geography. Vol.5. http://tech.sina.com.cn/d/2006-04-30/0956925021.shtml. Accessed Oct 14, 2007. Zhou, J.C. 2007. Economic dialectic of a stricken nation. Financial Times. http://211.81.31.53:88/index/showdoc.asp?blockcode=zjbi&filename=200701252378. Accessed, Oct 15, 2007.  51  3  3.1  MAJOR CHALLENGES FACING THE SUSTAINABILITY OF THE FOREST SECTOR IN CHINA3  INTRODUCTION  China‘s rapid economic growth has had significant impacts on its forestry sector and the global trade in wood. In just a few years, China has become the world‘s largest exporter of wood products (Hamilton, 2006; Wang et al., 2007), and recently overtook Japan as the world‘s second largest importer of wood products (after the USA). China is also the world‘s largest importer of softwood and hardwood logs. Its rapid emergence in the furniture export business has enabled it to capture almost 50% of the US market, prompting a restructuring of the US furniture industry (Zhu, 2007), and low-priced Chinese wood exports have fuelled trade disputes with the USA and Europe. Environmentalists have been amongst the most critical of the unbridled economic growth: ―China is already the biggest driver of rainforest destruction. Half of all rainforest logs head for China‖ (McCarthy, 2005); ―If (China) consumes paper at the same rate we do, it will (in 2031) consume twice as much paper as the world is now producing. There go the world‘s forests....‖ (Brown, 2006). Despite publications such as that of Richardson (1990) and Zhou (2006), forestry in China remains a largely unknown entity because of the difficulty of accessing reliable information about the sector. In practice, there are major inconsistencies in the information that is being made available through both official and unofficial sources. For example, before 1998, forested land was defined as an area of forest with 30% or more canopy cover, but after 1998, any forest with 20% or more cover was considered as forest. Such changes are often missed in reports about forestry in China, resulting in the propagation of serious errors. While the exact state of China‘s forestry sector is difficult to quantify, it is clear that China‘s forestry is currently experiencing the most rapid development in its history (Wang et al., 2007), and that China is experiencing a number of serious social, economic and environmental crises related to forestry. Annual floods exacerbated by uncontrolled logging and soil erosion have left millions homeless, huge sandstorms have created major problems for urban centres such as Beijing, the area of farmland affected by drought has tripled since 1950, and the quality of drinking water throughout the country remains a major concern (Yang, 2008). Pan Yue, Deputy Minister of the Environmental Protection Agency of China, has warned that ―One-third of the urban population is exposed to heavily polluted air; 300 million rural residents drink unsafe water; and one-fifth of China‘s major cities fail to meet the country‘s minimum standards for drinking water‖ (Pan, 2006; Turner, 2006 and OECD, 2007). The Chinese government is acutely aware that it must take measures to mitigate environmental damage if it is to sustain its economic growth and rural stability (Yang et al., 2006). Estimates of the GDP lost due to environmental damage in 2006 range from 3% to 10% (Economy, 2007). 3  A version of this chapter ‗Major challenges facing the sustainability of the forest sector in China‘ has been accepted for publication in Forest Policy and Economics. Authors: Wang, G.Y., Innes, J., Wu, W. S., Dai, S.Y. At the request of the external examiner, the version presented here differs significantly from the version that will be published. 52  China has introduced a series of forestry programs and new policies to expand its wood growing and manufacturing base, reduce incidents of natural disasters, improve degraded lands and provide more sustainable livelihoods for thousands of forestry-dependent communities (Wang et al., 2007). The programs reflect the growing recognition that forests can make to environmental protection and rural livelihoods, in addition to the more traditional focus on wood production (c.f. Liu, 2007a). The implementation of the programs is expected to lead to major transitions in the forestry industry, from felling mainly natural forests to the utilization of plantations; from deforestation for agriculture to the conversion of cultivated land to forestry and pasture, from the free exploitation of ecological services to payments for these services and from state control over forestry to involvement of the whole society in the sector (Zhou, 2006).  3.2  CHINA’S FORESTRY IN A NEW CRITICAL TRANSITION ERA  China‘s forestry has been changing drastically since the country was affected by devastating floods in 1998. The Central Government has launched a series of key national programmes and forest policy reforms. The scale and investment of these forestry programmes are already producing some tangible benefits to forest cover, the wood industry and rural livelihoods. Large areas are protected from logging, huge afforestation programmes are underway, and ongoing privatization offers hope of more efficient and effective operations that can create jobs and stimulate economic growth (Wang et al., 2007, 2008). China has achieved a measure of success in meeting some of environmental challenges, including increased afforestation, investment in forestry, expansion of the wood industry, reduction of harvesting to protect natural forests, growth in wood trade and increases in forest cover. In the following analysis, I examine the major challenges facing the sustainability of the forest sector in China using statistical data derived from the annual China Forestry Statistical Yearbooks. Reforestation and afforestation. There have been three peaks of reforestation in the last 56 years (Figure 3–1). The first stage (1956–1960) occurred during the Great Leap Forward, when there was large-scale harvesting to fuel the production of iron and steel (Judith, 2001). The second period of afforestation (1983–1985) took place after China‘s first (failed) attempt to privatize forestland. The third occurred in 2001–2004, with the implementation of the Six Key Forestry Programs (SKFPs). The first two periods coincided with heavy logging, and only the third period was accompanied by a reduction of logging and the adoption of more ecological practices. Between 2001 and 2007, 31.6 million ha. of land have been planted with trees (State Forestry Administration, 2008).  53  Million ha  10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1952  1958  1964  1970  Total plantation  1976  1982  Plantation  1988  1994  2000  2006  Regeneration  Figure 3-1. Afforestation and regeneration since 1949. (Source: Adapted from data presented in the annual State Forestry Administration reports 1993–2006).  Billion Yuan  Investment in forestry: Investment in the forest industry has remained constant if inflation is factored into the values. However, investment in silviculture and afforestation has climbed sharply since 1998 (Figure 3–2). The result has been an increase in forest cover from 8% in 1949 to 18.2% in 2003. 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 Total Investment  Silviculture  Forest Industry  Figure 3-2. Fixed-asset investment in forestry since 1949 in China. (Source: Adapted from data presented in the annual State Forestry Administration reports 1993–2006). Expansion of the wood industry: Timber production levels were increased sharply during the Great Leap Forward (1958-1961), and climbing during Cultural Revolution (1968–1978), and then increased sharply again after the second forest ownership reform in 1983-1988. During 1990–1998, prior to the occurrence of the catastrophic flooding that triggered the ban on the logging of natural forests (Figure 3–3) the timber production reach historical record. The woodbased panel industry grew gradually from 1984, experiencing marked fluctuations associated 54  with changes in ownership between 1994 and 1998, and in recent years has increased sharply.  Million m3  80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10  Total Timber Production  Sawtimber  2006  2004  2002  2000  1998  1996  1994  1992  1990  1988  1986  1984  1982  1980  1978  1976  1974  1972  1970  1968  1966  1964  1962  1960  1958  1956  1954  1952  0  Woodbase Panel  Figure 3-3. Annual production of timber in China since 1952. (Adapted from data presented in the annual State Forestry Administration reports 1993–2007).  Growth in the wood trade: China is now a global manufacturing centre for wood products, benefiting from low labour costs, modern technology and the integration of wood from all over the world. The high-tech and low-cost wood products have successfully penetrated the North American market. The development of short-rotation, high-yield forests is posing a threat to the North American wood industry, and has already impacted the U.S. wood manufacturing sector. In 2007, the forest products trade in China was worth US$ 64.29 billion, a 36% increase over 2006. Forest product imports were valued at $32.36 billion and exports at $31.93 billion, 33% and 21% increases on 2006, respectively (State Forestry Administration, 2008) (Figure 3–4). China has switched from being a net wood importer (based on value) in 1993 to a net wood exporter in 2006. However, on a volumetric basis, there is still a substantial deficit, with net imports of around 86.32 million m3 of wood products in 2007.  55  Billion US$  35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1996  1997  1998  1999  2000  2001  2002  Export  2003  2004  2005  2006  2007  Import  Figure 3-4. Import and export of wood products since 1996. (Adapted from data presented in the annual China Forestry Statistical Yearbooks 1997–2008). Increases in forest cover. Forest cover has increased since the founding of the People‘s Republic of China in 1949. During the Great Leap Forward, large-scale harvesting led to the replacement of high quality forests and old growth by plantations. At the same time, there was large-scale afforestation of barren lands, which occurred with minimal seed selection or other attempts to ensure the quality of the resulting plantations. As a result, large-scale, low-quality monocultures were created. During the Cultural Revolution, afforestation was promoted by the Social Campaign, and again the quality of the forest was poor (Research Group of Sustainable Forestry Development, 2003). The implementation of the SKFPs has led to a forest development strategy that has focused on timber production forest, primarily high yield and fast growth, and ecological forest. The Chinese government is looking at ways to restore the forest cover to the levels present in the 18th century by the mid 21st century, a figure that is widely believed to be about 26% (Research Group of Sustainable Forestry Development, 2003).  Forest Cover Rate  30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1700  1750  1800  1850  1900  1934  1948  19731976  19771981  19841988  19891993  19941998  19992003  2010  2020  2050  Year  Forest cover rate %  Figure 3-5. Actual and predicted forest cover of China, 1700–2050. (Adapted from He et al., 2007, and data presented in the annual reports of the State Forestry Administration 2000–2006).  56  3.3  MAJOR ISSUES AND CHALLENGES  3.3.1 China’s demand for wood Rapid economic growth, increased capital investment from both domestic and foreign sources (Li, 2007) and an increase in personal consumption have facilitated construction and housing development, driving up demand for wood products in China. China‘s demand for roundwood in 2005 exceeded its domestic supply by more than 26 million m3 (Flynn, 2007). China relies on imports to meet 20% of its industrial roundwood needs, with wood imports increasing annually by 26% over the last 10 years (Figure 3–4), and there is no indication that this rate of growth will abate (Zhang and Gan, 2007). China‘s demand for wood is driven largely by its growing exports of wood products and the demand for furniture and interior decorations to furnish new construction. In a short time it has developed a significant forest industry based on advanced technologies and low labour costs, enabling it to become an increasingly effective competitor in global markets. Together with its wood-based panel sector, the Chinese furniture industry has accelerated since 1998 and has quickly penetrated and captured nearly 50% of the US market (UNECE Timber Committee, 2006), emerging almost overnight from a near-negligible market share in 2000 (less than US$ 1.5 billion) to US$ 13.18 billion in 2005 (Figure 3–5). The sector is showing evidence of innovation in relation to products, processes and business systems, further enhancing its competitiveness (e.g., Li, 2003; Zhu, 2003; Castaño, 2004; Cao and Hansen, 2006). The availability of low-priced Chinese wood products is leading to trade disputes with the USA and Europe, a problem that forest scientists in China have anticipated (see, for example, Liu and Song, 2005). China‘s international wood products trade in 2007 reached US$ 64.3 billion, and for the first time since 1993 there was a reverse from being a net importer (based on value) to a net exporter in 2006. However, on a volumetric basis, there is still a substantial deficit, with net imports of around 86 million m3 of wood products in 2007 (Figure 3–4) (SFA, 2008). China‘s wood shortage is not likely to improve soon and other materials, such as agricultural straw (Zhou and Mei, 2000), are unlikely to meet the deficit in the short-term. In 1998, in an attempt to curb disastrous flooding, China imposed a ban on the logging of natural forests in the major headwaters of the Yellow, Yangtze and Songhua Jiang Rivers (e.g., Shen, 2003; Schröder and Zhang, 2007). Since then, domestic wood supply has dropped annually to around 6–8% of wood production (SFA, 2003–2006), while consumption has shown a dramatic increase. As a result, China has increasingly sought wood from outside the country (Sun et al., 2004), making the industry vulnerable to external pressures. China‘s dependency and vulnerability on wood imports is most obvious with regards to Russia, which is the single largest supplier of logs to China (Flynn, 2007; Song et al., 2007) and which has recently introduced a substantial export tax on logs. In addition to the 19 million m3 of declared wood exports to China, significant volumes of illegally harvested wood from the Russian Far East are also imported. The introduction of wood export taxes by Russia is specifically intended to limit log exports to China and to stimulate the domestic processing of timber. If Russia fully introduces the proposed tariff, there will be significant impacts on the ca. 1000 wood processing manufacturers located along the Russia–China border and the 15,000 Russian wood export companies involved in the cross-border trade. Current annual wood production in Russia is 144 million m3, but the domestic demand is only 91 million m3. A lack of infrastructure and advanced technology are still major barriers for the Russian wood57  processing industry, and while there have been various attempts to predict likely effects using modelling (e.g., Northway and Bull, 2007), the impacts of the tariff on the trade of logs across the Russia–China border are difficult to foresee. Southeast Asia has also been a major source of hardwood imports for China ((Sun et al., 2004), although wood imports from the region have declined in recent years. Declared exports of wood from Indonesia to China were 1.14 million m3 in 2001. By 2005, this had declined to 50,000 m3 due to the introduction of forest protection policies in Indonesia (Zhang, 2007). Malaysia is also a major source of timber for China, but declared imports from this source have declined from 2.93 million m3 in 2000 to 1.86 million m3 in 2005. The Philippines formerly exported 80% of their total wood production and the country was one of largest wood exporters in Southeast Asia. However, wood exports have decreased dramatically, from US$ 73 million in 1991 to US$ 24 million in 1998. Meanwhile, illegal exports reached as high as US$ 800 million annually in the mid-1990s (Zhang, 2007). The rising costs of international shipping (by almost 50% since 2003) for wood products (Qin, 2005) is another factor that has forced a switch from sourcing softwood from New Zealand, Australia and Chile to Russia, and from sourcing hardwood from Indonesia and Malaysia to Cambodia and Myanmar. China recognizes that many of its export markets are increasingly demanding that forest products be certified as coming from sustainably managed forests. While some significant markets, such as certain major purchasers in the USA, are still open to low-cost, uncertified products, increasingly, certification is seen as an important step in maintaining international market access. At the same time, the rapidly increasing sophistication of the Chinese market is creating the possibility for a future demand for certified wood products in China, something the Central Government will encourage (State Forestry Administration, 2006). Currently, China has a national certification standard for forest management and is seeking endorsement of this standard from the international Program for the Endorsement of Forest Certification. Despite the scepticism of some outside observers (e.g., Stone, 2006), it seems likely that this standard will result in significant improvements to forest management practices in China. It is clear that if the development of the wood industry is to be sustained, China will not be able to rely on large-scale imports of wood. It will have to develop its own fibre sources, and will need to do so through land-tenure reforms and the revitalization of its domestic forestry sector. It will have to develop products that meet the steadily increasing expectations of the market, particularly in relation to environmental performance.  3.3.2 The urgent need for restoration strategies Serious environmental problems (such as flooding, soil erosion and drought) have been associated with the logging of natural forests and their conversion to other forms of land use (e.g., Hu et al., 1999; Wu, 2001; Lu and Yang, 2002; Fan et al., 2003). Over 40 large-scale sandstorms have affected China since 2000, including one that is estimated to have deposited 300,000 tonnes of dust over Beijing (China Daily, 2006); such storms are associated with significant health risks (Meng and Lu, 2007). One-third of the urban population is exposed to heavily polluted air, with the incidence of respiratory diseases being clearly linked to pollution levels (e.g., Qian et al., 2007; Wang et al., 2008c) from pollutants such as sulphur dioxide and nitrogen oxides, and populations in some areas being exposed to rarer atmospheric pollutants, 58  such as arsenic (Hong et al., 2007). Smog has become a ubiquitous feature of most major Chinese cities. While the Yangtze River has had 53 major floods in the last 500 years, in the last 50 years, major floods have occurred every three years (Jiang, 2003). Major floods have occurred nearly every year since 2001 and, in the summer of 1998, more than 3000 people were killed and 14 million left homeless. At the same time, the area affected by drought has been increasing (Jiang et al., 2005), and a total of 25 million ha. of arable land is affected by drought annually, three times the area affected in the 1950s. Associated with this, there are now 356 million ha. of eroded land in China (Jiang, 2003). In response to these serious environmental threats, China introduced five key forestry programs related to conservation and ecosystem restoration: the Natural Forest Protection Program (NFPP), the Conversion of Cropland to Forest Program (CCFP), Three North Shelterbelt Development Program and the Shelterbelt Development Program along Yangtze River Basin (3Ns&YRB) and the Sand Control Programs for Areas in the Vicinity of Beijing & Tianjin (SCP). Since 1998, these programs have yielded substantial results, playing a significant role in improving the ecological situation in China, facilitating agriculture and rural development and increasing the income of farmers (Wang et al., 2008a).  3.3.3 The structure of forestland ownership Forest land-use reforms present a major barrier to the rational development of China‘s forest estate. Ambiguous forest ownership regulations during a period of rapid entrepreneurial activity have resulted in the expropriation of farmland and destruction of forest resources by commercial operations, leading to a sharp rise in land disputes. Unclear land management rights and the inability to exchange forest assets for other assets have discouraged farmers from planting trees and managing forests. Uncertainty about the future of logging policies has reduced the motivation of local people to invest in forestry (Liu and Wang, 2000). The results of a 2007 joint Task Force involving six Central Government departments that examined the impact of land-use reforms on Jiangxi province (Six Joint-Departmental Investigation Task Force, 2007) provide an indication of the extent of the changes. They found that the reform has brought increased prosperity to rural areas in the province and that forest management practices have improved. The average price of barren land has risen from US$ 31.1 ha-1 to US$ 92.4 ha-1. The average price for a young (between 1 and 10 years old) plantation of Chinese fir has risen to US$ 1951.9 ha-1, double what it was at the start of the tenure reforms. The average annual cash income received by farmers from forestry has increased by 44.2%, and now amounts to US$ 26 per person. Between 2004 and 2005, the incidence of crimes related to forest ownership, such as illegal logging, declined by 45%. The number of forest fires and burned areas dropped by 56% and 74%, respectively, in the same period, and the ownership reforms stimulated a major population shift, with 281,000 farmers returning to the land to practise forestry in this single province. In 2006, 220,000 ha. of forest were planted, with farmers and private companies being responsible for 82% of the planting, and the financial investment in forestry from private sources amounted to US$ 62.5 million. Such changes and figures are unprecedented in the history of Jiangxi (Liu, 2007b). From the few other studies that have been conducted (e.g., Wan et al., 2006; Liu, 2007b; Sun, 2007), the results of the tenure reforms seem promising. However, ownership reforms involve a 59  number of different stakeholders, and the diverse interests of the different parties have been difficult to balance. A number of issues are now being addressed. While implementing the six key forest projects, the national and provincial governments have been subsidizing local farmers by providing annual compensation to those giving up land. In some regions, up to 70% of the forest area has been zoned as ecological forest, with very limited economic activity (e.g., the harvesting of bamboo) permitted. However, as a result of the ownership reforms and the increased financial returns of commercial forests, local people are now reclaiming their forest land (Six Joint-Department Investigation Task Force, 2007). Prior to these latest reforms, China had conducted four separate land reforms (Wang et al., 2008a). The last reform in particular introduced a great deal of uncertainty over land ownership, and had the unintended consequence of facilitating the spread of illegal logging. It was therefore abandoned before completion. However, because the reform was incomplete, there are now inadequate records of land ownership, and consequently new land-use conflicts have arisen. If forest lands are to be successfully introduced to the market place, accurate estimates of the forest estate and of forest land values are crucial. However, there has been no legislation introduced to regulate the evaluation of forest land, its transfer or its registration. Additionally, the complexity of forest stands and landscapes, a lack of skilled personnel, and high charges for evaluation services all appear to have hindered the process. The ownership reforms have greatly increased the number of individuals with a direct link to the land (Six Joint-Department Investigation Task Force, 2007). However, as a result, the ownership of forest land is now highly fragmented. The average area of land allocated to an individual is less than 1 ha, and in areas where the allocations have all been taken up by individuals, it will be very difficult to undertake any form of landscape-level planning. The fragmentation is also leading to changes in land use, such as conversion of forest land to agricultural use or fruit orchards. To be effective, sustainable forest management or the related ecosystem-based management requires a minimum area of forest that is generally larger than the land parcels being allocated under the reforms (Wang et al., 2008a).  3.3.4 The plantation program Although China has the largest area of plantation forest in the world, accounting for 28.7% of the world‘s plantations (SFA, 2006; FAO, 2007), it still falls far short of its timber needs. In the period 2001–2007, 5.55 million ha. of commercial forests were established nationwide, including 0.357 million ha. of fast-growing, high-yield timber plantations (SFA, 2008). China‘s plantation estate now exceeds 53 million ha, 30% of the total forest area in the country. However, less than 10% of this is at harvestable age, forcing the wood processing sector to rely heavily on imports, which reached 121.46 million m3 of wood in 2007 Wood consumption per capita in China is 0.12 m3, only one sixth that of the global average, and yet, if this were to be raised by just 0.1 m3, the demand for wood would increase by 130 million m3 (Jiang, 2003). Despite all efforts, the Chinese population is still growing by 12 million a year and is projected to reach between 1.2 and 1.6 billion by 2050 (United Nations, 2007). The ‗Forest Industrial Base Development Program in Key Regions with a Focus on Fast60  Growing and High-Yielding Timber Plantations‘ (FIBDP) was established in 2001 to meet the growing needs of the wood industry. With plans to establish 13 million hectares of fast-growing, high-yield timber plantations, it is likely the program will play a major part in meeting China‘s future fibre needs (SFA, 2006). However, as it is the only one of the major forestry programs with little government subsidy, progress has been relatively slow. Only 0.19 million ha. have been planted through this program, and the plan has only achieved afforestation over 3% of its planned area (SFA, 2006). Three measures have been implemented in an attempt to attract private investment and to motivate farmers to practise forest management. On January 1st 2006, China repealed its agricultural tax and the special agricultural products taxes. This has reduced the taxes on wood products to 33%. The Central Government has removed the forest species product tax (representing a sales tax of 10%), and local governments have removed all provincial taxes and some fees (SFA, 2007). A second approach has been to modify the restrictions on commercial forest harvesting. A pilot study is currently taking place in four counties in the provinces of Fujian, Jinlin, Jiangxi and Yunnan. It is already apparent from this study that fast-growing, high-yield plantations on flat land or on agricultural land should be considered as agricultural crops rather than as forests. This would reduce or eliminate many of the obligations associated with the management of forests. The third approach has been the establishment of a forest asset marketing system that allows the transfer and trade of forest land. The system consists of a forest and forest land registration centre, a forest resource evaluation centre, a timber and bamboo exchange centre, a forest legal and technical services centre, and a forest labour training centre (Wang et al., 2009). Studies inside China (e.g., Wan et al., 2006; Sun, 2007) have indicated that the success of the afforestation programs will largely depend on the manner in which the forests are established and managed, including the selection and mix of species, site selection, planting density and long-term ecological management (e.g., water issues). In eastern China, especially in the floodplains of the Yangtze Zhu, Min and Qiantang Rivers, large areas of former arable land have been planted with hybrid poplar and eucalyptus, leading to potential outbreaks of pests and diseases. For instance, poplar plantations have already been adversely impacted by the Asian longhorn beetle (Anoplophora glabripennis), and a population explosion of this species would be devastating (Baker, 2006). Much of the afforestation that has been completed through the key programs has been aimed at alleviating immediate problems, including the reduction of soil erosion and the alleviation of shortfalls in domestic fibre supplies. However, there are wider implications for the ecosystem which have not been fully assessed. In particular, the afforestation of large areas is likely to have significant implications for water supply in some areas, and average water yield reductions could be as great as 50% in the semi-arid Loess plateau areas (Sun et al., 2006). In such areas, an effective strategy to encourage afforestation has been the prevention of grazing (Peng et al., 2006). However, this has implications for local farmers, and suitable alternatives must be identified for the farmers. Even with such ambitious plantation programs, it is unlikely that China will be able to provide 61  sufficient domestic timber to feed its wood processing industry, leaving it reliant on timber imports. Zhang et al. (2005) have estimated that the demand for wood will reach between 214 and 240 million m3 in 2010, 400–430 million m3 in 2030, and 574–719 million m3 in 2050 (these are considered to be conservative estimates, but may be more realistic given the recent economic downturn in China‘s export markets). The plantation area is expected to reach 53 million ha. in 2010 and 154 million ha. by 2050. The fast-growing plantations in the south are expected to mature by 2015, gradually increasing the domestic wood supply. They estimate that domestic wood supply will increase to 400 million m3 year-1 by 2030, although there is evidence that this may not be achieved. The continued flow of raw materials into China has implications beyond its borders. Not only are other countries finding it increasingly difficult to compete for timber, but a significant portion of China‘s log imports are from developing countries (such as Indonesia and Myanmar) with weak regulatory structures(Wang et al., 2008b), thus raising serious concerns about importation of illegally logged timber. While the Central Government has imposed import restrictions such as a ban on logs from Myanmar (Wang et al., 2008b), it remains unable to effectively monitor and prevent illegal log trafficking. Corruption, both within China and in the source countries, makes combating this problem a very difficult challenge. Some internet-based sources (such as Global Timber: http://www.globaltimber.org.uk/) estimate that significant proportions of China‘s log imports are illegally sourced. Environmental organizations, especially international watchdog groups, will continue to put pressure on the Chinese government to strengthen oversight of log imports, but as long as provincial and local authorities place greater emphasis on economic development than environmental protection, it will be difficult for the Central Government to control this issue. 3.3.5 The impact on China’s rural poor Land ownership reforms, the development of renewable natural resources and the development of a significant wood industry are objectives intended to contribute to rural community development. However, while China has invested billions of dollars in programs designed to alleviate poverty, living standards are actually decreasing in some areas (State Forestry Administration, 2008). In China, 16.6% of the rural population have an income of less than US$ 1 a day in 2006. It is estimated that natural disasters, environmental protection and economic development have displaced 2.5 million people and an additional five million are likely to be displaced in the near future (Chen and Qin, 2006). Rural development is still a delicate issue for the modern Chinese economy, and is also an issue when considering social stability and environmental protection. While many urban dwellers in China are enjoying the benefits derived from the ―Gai ge kai fang‖ (―change the system, open the door‖) policies, the benefits have not fully extended to those living in rural areas. Years of fighting poverty have resulted in marked improvements, with the number of people living in ‗dire poverty‘ (defined in China as an income of less than US$ 0.22 a day) being reduced from 250 million 1978 to 23.65 million in 2005 (Han and Zhao, 2007, and statistics issued by the State Council Leading Group of the Office of Poverty Alleviation and Development). In 2006, this figure was 21.48 million, and the Chinese Government is seeking to reduce it to zero by 2010 (Chinese People‘s Political Consultative Conference, 2007). Yet the rural poor continue to suffer disproportionately from the effects of environmental degradation, with an estimated 90% 62  of rural people living in areas suffering from land degradation (Asian Development Bank, 2003). Over 312 million rural residents have no access to safe drinking water (World Bank, 2007) and the media commonly reports on industrial accidents releasing pollutants into the water, leading to violent clashes over polluted water supplies (e.g., China Daily, 2005). Some congress representatives have therefore called for the establishment of an environmental court system in China (China.org.cn, 2008). In 2004 alone, the Chinese government reported some 87,000 "mass incidents" of unrest, or about 240 per day (Keidel, 2006). The government is attempting to alleviate rural poverty and improve forest management by compensating rural people for the environmental services provided by managed forests (He, 2006). The program started with provincial pilot studies in Fujian and Guangdong in 1999. In 2001, the Central Government approved the concept of providing financial compensation for ecological forests, and the Ministry of Finance set up the necessary funding and administrative procedures. That same year, the Central Government provided RMB 1 billion to conduct pilot studies across 11 provinces, including 685 counties and 24 national natural reserves. In 2004, the Central Government formally delineated 26.7 million ha of forests as key national ecological forests and provided about US $37.5 ha-1 yr-1 for 8 years. Local governments followed suit and delineated local ecological forests. In the period 2000–2005, the Chinese Central Government invested over RMB 10 billion, and 3.6 million families, involving 20 million people, have directly benefited from the program (Qi et al., 2007). The program marks the first time that the government has recognized that the ecological benefits derived from forests are directly linked to the contributions that local farmers make in environmental protection. The compensation has enhanced the income of farmers, particularly in remote mountain areas. Combined with the financial payments derived from NFPP and CCFP programs, forests are now contributing significantly to farmers‘ living standards and the reduction of rural poverty. However, there have been many issues associated with the implementation of the program. One major problem is that the current level of compensation is too low ( ¥ 75 RMB ha-1), covering only 50% of the actual protection and management costs (State Forestry Administration, 2003-2006). This has encouraged forest owners to view the payments as being for forest protection rather than silviculture, yet active management of these forests is required if their full benefits are to be realized. The relevant forest law actually states that the ―Forest ecological benefit compensation fund is established for forest resource management, planting, cultivating, and protection‖, so the compensation program is insufficient to enable the legal requirements to be met. Although the program generally has two beneficiaries, namely the forest owners and local forest rangers, in some areas, the payments have been used exclusively to cover the costs of the forest rangers, with forest owners receiving nothing. Another problem is that the government subsidy does not always go directly to farmers or managers, and local government has been intercepting the payments and deducting a proportion to cover its ‗administrative‘ costs (Six Joint-Departmental Investigation Task Force. 2007). Some local governments have forced farmers to give up their timberland so that it can be used for local key ecological forests, and have given no or absurdly low levels of financial compensation. This is having a significant impact on the willingness of local people to practise sustainable forestry, and can be interpreted as a failure in the current implementation of sustainable forest management (Wang et al., 2008a). In the same vein, many areas have 63  allocated too much forest to protection, leaving farmers with an inadequate land base for survival. The ambiguity of land tenure regulations has also created legal loopholes that allow local governments to take farm lands at very low compensation levels in the name of ‗public interest projects,‘ with the lands then being transferred to commercial interests at great profit to local government (Han, 2005).  3.4  THE ROOTS OF THE ISSUES  China is making major efforts to resolve forest-related environmental, social and economic problems. However, as illustrated above, it still faces many issues and challenges. The current imbalance between economic growth and environmental protection is a direct result of past policies that favour economic expansion over the environment. Many of the issues that the country faces today can be traced to the differing priorities of the many stakeholders that are involved. The Central Government has proposed a science-based approach to development that is designed to both change the current GDP-centered model of growth and realize a balanced form of sustainable development. However, in practice, local governments have failed to achieve this balance, with the economy still being given priority over the environment. It is important to identify the current stakeholders and their main motivation, which will help get to the roots of the issues that are preventing the forest development programs from moving forward. Based on categorizing differences in interests and responsibilities (CAS Sustainable Development Strategic Research Group, 1999 and 2007), there are four main stakeholder groups: (1) the Central Government (2) the local governments, (3) the general public (NGO), and (4) rural residents and forest-dependent farmers. The interests of these groups form the key drivers for the direction in which China‘s forestry will develop.  Table 3-1 Categories of stakeholder for environmental issues in China Type of stakeholder The central government Local government  The general public  Definition  Explanation  Agencies and ministries in central government Agencies and departments in provincial, city, and county government Professional NGOs and individuals  All organization with statutory and financial powers to develop environment and watershed policy and planning. All organization with local level statutory powers and financial benefits from implementing watershed plans and projects  Professional non-government organizations and individuals who have not direct financial benefit from the watershed management, but have a channel to present their voices and opinions through a public media Rural residents and Individual farmers in Individuals who rely on farming and logging to forest-dependent rural area support their living. And normally cannot have farmers their voice heard (difficult to reach a public media). The protest is a main mean to present themselves. 64  3.4.1 The Central Government China is ruled by a communist regime, with the Central Government controlling the financial and political power in the country. The top-down planning systems are still dominated by economic interests. Currently, the Central Government is under internal and external pressure to solve its environmental problems, and is showing an increasing interest in doing so. Its main strategy has been to introduce large-scale programs, such as the Western Development Program and the Six Key Forestry Programs. However, a lack of public participation and consultation that recognises the interests and rights of other parties has hindered the effective implementation of these programs (Guo, 2006; Normile, 2007; Plummer and Taylor, 2004). For example, with the SKFPs, only the NFPP went through pilot studies and coordinated planning. None has gone through any formal public consultation, and implementation has been rushed. Within central Government, there is particular interest in the introduction of a conservation culture (People‘s Daily, 2007), but this so far has yet to be implemented in any significant way.  3.4.2 Local governments Local governments, including both provincial and county governments, are the main parties concerned with regional economic development. One of the key indicators for assessing the performance of local officials, and for determining their promotion, is the growth in GDP of their regions. While the implementation of national programs brings federal funding that undoubtedly enhances regional economic development, differences in the objectives of national and local governments mean that the projects rarely meet their intended objectives. Corruption, in the form of diversion of funding for other purposes and false reporting of the projects‘ progress and achievements, is a major problem. There have been cases where land allocated to ecological forest by provinces was subsequently re-gazetted as commercial forest land for the FIBDP, enabling national funding to be claimed twice (Six Joint-Departmental Investigation Task Force. 2007).  3.4.3 The general public Environmental problems have become a major concern to the general public (Gleick, 2008)here mainly are environmental advocates and ENGOs. However, there are no mechanisms that would facilitate public participation or consultation, and the views of the general public are rarely heard in formal ways. Nonetheless, public displays of anger and eruptions of public protest, some of them violent, are increasing (Gleick, 2008; Ma 2009). In a 2006 report, the Congressional Research Service reported that ―public order disturbances‖ had grown 50% between 2003 and 2005 and that the ―recent protest activities have been broader in scope, larger in average size, greater in frequency, and more brash than those of a decade ago‖ (CRS, 2006). Participation by the public in decision-making is weak, partly because the government has been unwilling to allow it (e,g. Wang et al.,2008d), and partly because of a lack of experience and knowledge on the part of the public. The asymmetric availability of information remains a barrier to public awareness and involvement in forestry programs.  65  3.4.4 Rural residents and forest-dependent farmers Rural communities are extremely vulnerable, and the farmers often uneducated and poor. The economic reforms that have enabled the emergence of a middle class in China‘s major cities have also left millions in the countryside without clear land ownership rights or even basic services such as clean water and air (e.g., Han and Zhao, 2007). Despite government reforms, local corruption, unjustified land confiscation and environmental degradation continue to provoke public protests (Han, 2005; Yang 2008). Lacking resources, their interests are often ignored by other stakeholders. The absence of public involvement in the decision-making process and the lack of protection for property rights are key factors blocking progress in the forestry programs (Wang et al, 2008a). Those whose livelihoods are most dependent on forestry find that they have few powers to enforce their land rights, little say in reforms intended to raise their standard of living, and limited recourse to air grievances. For China, it is important to find a solution that addresses the separate and often conflicting needs of this diverse group of stakeholders, otherwise the effectiveness of the forestry reforms will be limited by the underlying inequity of the current system of power.  3.5  CHINA’S FUTURE WOOD REQUIREMENTS  To better understand China‘s future wood needs, a model that incorporated China‘s forest availability, economic growth, tariffs, foreign exchange rate, domestic housing market, and wood product competitiveness was used to project the future demand-supply expectations for China. With China‘s Six Key Forestry Programs, and the tenure reform, China has aggressively developed its own forest in both public and private sectors, with emphasis on short rotation, high-yield forests such as poplar and eucalyptus. As a result, China‘s wood production is expected to grow over the next twenty years. How much these new forests and plantations will impact China‘s domestic wood supply is dependent on several factors: 1) Current forest resources and their accessibility over the next twenty years; 2) The increase of commercial forests, particularly the short rotation plantations for industrial fibre; 3) A potential increase in operational harvesting from ecological forests; 4) An increase in the capacity of wood based panels, and paper industry; 5) Changes in demand from Chinese domestic markets in the light of GDP growth; and 6) Development of potential international trade, with consideration of forest certification products.  3.5.1 The projection of China wood products production In order to further understand the gap between future wood production and consumption in China, the Global Forest Production Model (GFPM) was used to project future wood production, consumption and trade in China. The GFPM, co-developed by the FAO and the University of Wisconsin–Madison, is a spatial equilibrium forest sector model that looks at production, consumption, and trade in forest products at the global level (Buongiorno et al., 2003; Zhang et  66  al., 2007; Zhu et al., 2007)4. The 2007 version of the GFPM projects world forest commodity markets for 180 countries and 14 different forest commodity categories from a base year (such as 2006) to a target year (such as 2100). For further information about the model, and data sources, please see http://forest.wisc.edu/facstaff/Buongiorno/book/GFPM.htm. The China Wood Production Model (China Academy of Forestry Planning and Inventory, 2003), which is widely used for AAC determination in China, was used to verify the accuracy of the GFPM Model. Figure 3–6 shows that the GFPM (Model II) projection fell within Scenarios 1 and 2 of the Model I. This suggests that the GFPM provides reliable projections. The following projections are based on the GFPM modelling, as the China Wood Production Model is only available for predicting log production. Million cubic meters  400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2007  2010 Model I Scenario 1  2015 Model I Scenario 2  2025  2030 Model II  Figure 3-6. Simulation of China’s log production under two projection models with three scenarios. Model I is based on the percentage of fulfillment of SKFP (Scenario 1 is 60% of completion, and Scenario 2 is 90% of completion). Model II is based on GFPM simulation. The simulation results suggest that Chinese wood production will keep increasing over the next 20 years (Figure 3–6) due to the maturation of new plantations. The supply of logs and veneer will increase dramatically, while sawn lumber, plywood, particleboard and fiberboard will grow more gradually over the next 20 years (Figure 3–7). The production of pulp and paper will also increase, particularly paper production (Figure 3–8).  4  For more detailed information, please see http://forest.wisc.edu/facstaff/Buongiorno/book/GFPM.htm) 67  Million cubic meter  60  50  40  30  20  10  0 1992  2006 Sawn lumber  2007  2010  2015  Veneer and Plywood  2020 Particle Board  2025  2030  Fiberboard  million cubic meter  Figure 3-7. Projection of China’s wood-based panel production over the next twenty years. 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1992  2006  2007  2010 Pulp  2015  2020  2025  2030  Paper and paper products  Figure 3-8. Projection of China’s pulp and paper production over the next twenty years. 3.5.2 The projection of China’s consumption and trade deficit The projection also suggests that the demand for wood products over the next twenty years will remain strong (Figure 3–9). The demand for logs will dominate Chinese forest imports over the first ten years, with the volume of log demand being larger than the other four products combined. Sawn lumber is China‘s second most in-demand forest product and its growth will increase over the next twenty years. The Chinese demand for wood has triggered protective 68  Million cubic meter  measures in neighbouring countries, such as Russia, which has increased its export tariffs in an attempt to limit log exports to China. Many Southeast Asian counties are implementing log export quotas in attempts to reduce timber exports. 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2006  2007  2010  2015  Log Veneer and Plywood Fiberboard  2020  2025  2030  Sawn lumber Particle Board  Figure 3-9. Projection of China’s imports of wood products over the next twenty years.  Million cubic meter  China‘s demand for pulp, paper and paper products will likely increase in the long term as Chinese paper production and consumption per capita in 2006 was 41 kg year-1, lower than the world average of 52 kg year-1, and far lower than the average for major developed countries (300 kg year-1) (State Forestry Administration, 2007). It is generally believed that China will gradually catch up with world average (Table 3-10). 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2006  2007  2010 Pulp  2015  2020  2025  2030  Paper and paper products  Figure 3-10. Projection of China’s imported pulp and paper products over the next twenty years. A summary of the simulation results (Figure 3–11) indicates the net trade in forest products for China over the next twenty years. China will mainly be in deficit, although the extent will vary by product. With the exception of surpluses for veneer and plywood and a changing trend for logs, all wood products will show steadily increasing deficits.  69  million cubic meters  20  10  0  1992 -10  2006  2010  Actual  2015  2020  2025  2030  Projection  -20  -30  -40  Log Veneer and Plywood Fiberboard Chemical pulp Newsprint  Sawn lumber Particle Board Mechanical pulp Other fiber pulp Printing and writing paper  Figure 3-11. China net trade projection over the next twenty years. 3.6  IS THERE A SOLUTION?  China‘s forestry is currently at a crossroads. It faces enormous problems, but at the same time there is tremendous potential. A comprehensive, well-planned strategy is required that takes into account the complexities of the Chinese situation. The six key forestry programs, ongoing land tenure reform, related policy changes and government support have together set a strong foundation for further development. These opportunities are discussed in more detail in the following sections. 3.6.1 New opportunities for forestry As indicated above, the Central Government of China is advocating a much more balanced approach to the relationship between the economy and the environment. To date, the emphasis has been on economic development, but this is changing, as indicated by a speech by Hu JinTao in 2007 (People‘s Daily, 2007). An example of this change in attitude is provided by the Forest Care program, initiated by the Population, Resources and Environment Committee of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (Government of 70  China, 2008). These changes are part of a longer term trend, described below. On 11 October 2006, the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party approved a new ideological theme—building a ―Harmonious Society‖—to balance the country‘s economic growth with environmental reforms to ensure a stable society. The ―Harmonious Society‖ elevates the sustainability into a national priority, and recognizes that social stability is dependent on a balance between economic growth and improving the environment. The implication is that environmental protection should not fall behind economic growth. In support of the policy, the Chinese government has introduced a series of new development concepts, goals and guiding principles, some of which provide opportunities for forest resource protection and management. A market-based instrument, termed the Circular Economy (CE), is being introduced to enhance economic and environmental performance through the collaborative management of environmental and resource issues (Bi, 2004; Pinter, 2006). The basic concept involves the transfer of information and surplus materials (including waste products) from one company to another, thereby improving performance (Bi et al., 2000). Forestry is ideal for this and should benefit in the areas of forest resource development, agroforestry, wood and energy saving, and community-based forest development. The increase in flexibility and innovation, as well as the testing and adoption of existing and new environmental technologies, should lead to much greater resource efficiency and less demand on the forest for fuel. Secondly, an opportunity is provided by the Kyoto Protocol Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). This would involve the forest sector working closely with industry to identify and implement compensation mechanisms for ecological benefits. The first CDM project in China was officially launched in January 2007 by the World Bank in Guangxi, entitled the Guangxi Forestry Comprehensive Development and Protection Project. This project was the first afforestation project designed by the World Bank BioCarbon Fund. The total investment involved nearly US$200 million for afforestation of 4000 ha. of barren land (Wang, 2007). China is also introducing Green GDP and auditing systems that will allow the general public and the government to assess regional development in the economy in relation to the consumption of resources and damage to the environment. It will also enable the environmental performance of local governments to be assessed. Such a change should facilitate a switch away from the current focus on economic development to an approach that simultaneously considers the economy and the environment. Progress has already been made in this area, and on 8 September 2006, the China Green National Accounting Study Report 2004 was jointly issued by the State Environmental Protection Administration and the National Bureau of Statistics. The report, the first ever attempt by the Chinese government to develop an environmentally-adjusted GDP accounting system, is a significant development.  3.6.2 Further reforms The forest management system in China is one of the last remnants of an economic planning system that focused primarily on resource exploitation and centralized control (Wang et al. 2007). Reform of the forest management structure is now essential (State Forestry Administration,2008). The Central Government has approved the Solution to Further 71  Implementing Forestry System Reform developed by State Forest Administration in June, 2009 (People Daily, 2009). After the completion of three key tasks, namely reform of forestland ownership, gazetting of commercial and ecological forests and afforestation of barren lands, management policies need to be changed (State Forestry Administration, 2008). Ecological forests should be strictly enforced, and rules for commercial forests relaxed to enable their efficient development and harvesting. Forest managers will be given the freedom to determine the harvest age (based on economic maturity), to apply intensive forest management techniques, to select the most appropriate tree species, to pursue all potential economic benefits, and to harvest according to their needs rather than according to some pre-determined level of cut. Essentially, commercial forests will be managed according to market forces. The government will also relax the rules that prevent regional planners from sourcing private capital, thereby making them less reliant on government subsidies. Most notably, the government will no longer control, but rather encourage, the development of the commercial wood products trade (State Forestry Administration, 2008; People Daily, 2009).  3.6.3 Future forestry plans Looking forward, the State Forest Administration has set a new goal to position forestry as an important player in China‘s social, economic and environmental development. One of the key indicators is that the forest cover should be increased to 26% by 2050 (State Forestry Administration, 2008a). This is equivalent to the level of forest cover in 1700 (Figure 3–6). A second major policy being introduced by the SFA is to adopt the Clean Development Mechanism to resource development based on renewable resources, recycling, conservation and clean fuels (State Forestry Administration, 2008a). According to the National Ecological Environmental Construction Development Plan and the 11th Five-year Plan for Forestry, between 2006 and 2010 there will still be a focus on the six key forest programs (Wang et al., 2007). The total investment in the programs in the period will be US$ 65.8 million (Table 3–1) (Forestry, Research Group of Sustainable Forestry Development, 2003). The aim is to establish 77 million ha. of new forest, including 53 million ha. of commercial forest (Wang et al, 2008a). The area of natural reserves will reach 16.1% of China‘s land area, and 12 million ha. of land currently affected by severe soil erosion and 3.3 million ha. of sandy arable land will be planted with forest (State Forestry Administration, 2008). The area of fast-growing and high-yield plantations forest will be increased to 10 million ha, which should alleviate the pressure on existing domestic wood supplies. Long-term planning (to 2050) will also focus on the ecological development, stewardship and protection of forests (Table 3–2) (State Forestry Administration, 2008a). Between 2011 and 2050, 147 million ha. of land will be afforested, and 7.5 million ha. of low-value and degraded forest will be improved. A total of 177.3 million ha. of forest will be protected. The investment in forestry between 2000 and 2050 is expected to be around US$ 181.5 billion. Forest protection and stewardship will account for 46.6% of this sum, accounting for more investment than any other activity in the Chinese forestry sector (State Forestry Administration, 2008a). The area of ecological forest will gradually increase while the rate of afforestation will decline throughout this period.  72  Table 3-2. Planned forest investment in the period 2006–2010. Units are billion Yuan. (Adapted from National Ecological Environmental Construction Development Plan and the 11th Five-year Plan for Forestry, Research Group of Sustainable Forestry Development, 2003). Item  Investment (2006–2010) 454 5.2  Six key forest programs Infrastructure construction Forest ecological benefit compensation Government operation expenses Other financial compensation  21.5  Compensation for combat desertification Total Investment  24.8  8.6 12.3  Main activities afforestation of 0.5 billion ha forest fire protection, maintenance of forest stations, research, education and training payments to farmers for transfer of productive forest land to reserves forest agency, forest inventory, and monitoring expenses forest public outreach facility development, tree genetic improvement, national park and conservation development  52.6  Table 3-3. Planned forest investment between 2011 and 2015. Units are billion Yuan. (Adapted from National Ecological Environmental Construction Development Plan and the 11th Five-year Plan for Forestry, Research Group of Sustainable Forestry Development, 2003). Item Silvicultural and forest management Forest protection and stewardship Forest infrastructure development Total  3.7  2011–2020  2021–2030  2031–2050  174  123  144  163  171  340  81.5  85.7  170  418.5  380  654  Forest ecological development projects Forest ecological benefit compensation program Forest fire protection, disease control and facility construction 1452.5  CONCLUSIONS  China‘s forests are facing enormous pressure. Since 1998, forestry in China has been experiencing a period of massive change, including the afforestation of barren and steep arable land, the reform of land tenure, the separation of commercial and ecological forests and the development of appropriate support systems. However, the current system of governance is creating a chaotic situation in rural areas, often associated with the breakdown of the social 73  structures of communities. The Chinese government and general public have gone through a gradual process of recognition of the relationship between development and environmental protection. Now, various approaches to resource development are likely to be adopted, rather than the exclusive focus on economic benefits that has dominated until now. However, there remains a fear that implementing environmentally-friendly strategies could erode the country‘s industrial competitiveness, so progress is unlikely to be rapid. For example, implementation of pollution emission standards that meet those of the USA would undoubtedly lead to the closure of many industries in China. The environmental problems facing China are also affecting other countries, such as global warming, sandstorms, air pollution, water depletion, deforestation and illegal logging. Some of these problems are transboundary in nature – dust from the Gobi Desert has been associated with hospital admissions in British Columbia, Canada (Bennett et al., 2006), and air pollutants originating from China have been identified in North America (Jaffe et al., 1999; Yienger et al., 2000). In 2005, a serious pollution event in the Songhua River not only affected major towns in China such as Harbin but extended downstream, reaching the Amur River and the city of Khabarovsk in Russia (Li, 2006). The economic repercussions of China‘s development are also being felt globally: These international impacts suggest that solving China‘s environmental problems must be an international effort. Currently many international organizations such as the World Wide Fund for Nature, the Global Environment Facility, the Program for the Endorsement of Forest Certification and the International Tropical Timber Organization are working closely with China to improve its forest management. 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Investment in the six Key Forestry Programs in the period of 2000–2005 Assessment. Units are in 10 thousand Yuan (RMB). (Adapted from State Forestry Administration, 2000–2006; State Forestry Administration, 1993–2006; and the Research Group of Sustainable Forestry Development, 2003). NFPP* 1998– Starting year 2010 Planning 73770000 9680000 2005 3616302 620148 2004 3510242 681985 2003 3339160 679020 2002 2558000 933712 2001 1664390 949319 2000 762489 608414 1999 510199 409225 1998 227761 227761 Total 16188543 5109584 % of completion 21.9% 52.8% Total  CCFC 1999– 2010 35500000 2404111 2142905 2085573 1106096 321425 154075 100974  SCP 2001– 2010 3690000 332625 267666 258781 123238 44988  FIDBP 2001– 2010 720000 15410 20560 31297 38986 24675  8315159  1027298 130928 1397077  208501  23.4%  27.8%  3.01%  18.2%  3Ns&YRB 2001– 2010 6740000 192556 352661 232083 316711 303066  20.7%  WCNRDP 2001– 2010 6920000 51452 44465 52406 39261 20917  * The abbreviations used in the title row are explained in Table 4–2. Massive investment in the SKFPs, strong demand for wood, and increasing pressure from environmental groups has led to calls for reform of forest ownership. Forests are considered the last battleground for much-needed land-tenure reforms in China, where old laws and practices still present a major barrier to the development of China's forest estate. In 2004, several provinces in the south began to reform forest ownership policies, introducing cuts in forest taxes, free-market mechanisms for forest asset transfers, and private support systems for forestry. These reforms are intended to improve forest infrastructure, enhance the competitive power of Chinese wood products, and improve environmental quality.  5  A version of this chapter has been published. Wang, G.Y., Innes, L.I., Lei, J.F., Dai, S.Y., Wu, W.S. 2007. China‘s Forestry Reforms. Science. (318) 1556-1557. 81  China is facing many problems that affect social harmony, including growing pressure on the environment and natural resources. Past government policies have favored economic growth over the environment, but the Central Government has now proposed a science-based approach to development designed to realize balanced sustainable development (Ma, 2006). However, in practice, local governments continue to put economic growth ahead of any concern for the environment, which has led some critics to call for stronger Central Government control. China's rapid economic growth, increased capital investment, and growing middle-class consumption have driven up the demand (and prices) for wood products. China not only needs wood to meet domestic demand, it also has a growing and very successful export industry. In 2006, the forest products trade in China was worth US$ 47.07 billion, a 23% increase over 2005. Forest product imports were valued at $19.39 billion (a 10% increase over 2005) and exports at $27.68 billion (a 34% increase). The trade in the first 6 months of 2007 was valued at $27.2 billion, a 35% increase over the same period in 2006 (Cao, 2007). By 2006, China had emerged as the world's largest exporter of furniture, accounting for 43% of U.S. and 33% of European wood furniture imports (UNECE Timber Committee, 2006). To meet the growing international demand for sustainability assurances in the production of forest products, China has developed a national certification standard and is seeking endorsement of its standard by the international Program for the Endorsement of Forest Certification (PEFC).  4.1  THE SIX KEY FORESTRY PROGRAMS  The SKFPs cover more than 97% of China's counties and target 76 million hectares of land for afforestation. The Natural Forest Protection Program (NFPP) was introduced in 1998 after a logging ban prompted by the most devastating floods in Chinese history (Zhang 2000). After a series of pilot studies, five additional programs were established to promote a more sustainable forest policy (Table 4–2). 4.1.1 Advances and successes During the past 8 years, the NFPP has brought 98 million ha. of forest under effective protection. Logging natural forest has been banned in the upper reach of the Yangtze River and in the middle and upper reaches of the Yellow River. Timber production in the Northeast and Inner Mongolia has been successfully reduced from 18.24 million m3 in 1997 to 10.99 million m3 in 2006 (State Forestry Administration, 2005, 2006 and 2007), and 0.67 million displaced forestry workers have been resettled (State Forestry Administration, 2006).  82  Table 4-2. The six Key Programs in forestry. (Adapted from State Forestry Administration, 2000–2006; Research Group of Sustainable Forestry Development, 2003). Program Details Natural Forest Protection Program Aim: to rehabilitate and develop natural forests. The (NFPP) program involves 734 counties and 167 forest industry bureaus in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River, the upper and middle reaches of the Yellow River, northeast China and Inner Mongolia. The three most important objectives for the period 1998–2010 are the protection of existing natural forest resources, the acceleration of the fostering of forest resources, and the relocation of 741,000 redundant forest workers. The Conversion of Cropland to Aim: to reduce soil erosion in critical areas. It plans to Forest Program (CCFP) return 14.7 million hectares of farmland to forests and afforest 17.3 million hectares of barren hills and wasteland suited to afforestation between 1999 and 2010. By completion, the area covered by forest and grass in the program area will rise by 5 percent, soil erosion on 86.7 million hectares of land will be stabilized, and 103 million hectares of windstorm-control and sand-stabilization areas will be established. Sand Control Program for Areas Aim: to reduce the hazard of sandstorms in areas in the Vicinity of Beijing & surrounding Beijing. It covers an area of 460,000 km2. It is Tianjin (SCP ) (third stage of the planned to return 2.63 million hectares of farmland to project ) forests, afforest 4.94 million hectares of land, develop 10.63 million hectares of grassland, build 113,800 facilities to support water conservation, regulate 23,000 km of drainage areas and resettle 180,000 people for ecological improvement purposes between 2001 and 2010. Three North Shelterbelt Aim: Rehabilitation of degraded and desertified land. It is Development Program and the planned to afforest 9.46 million hectares of land and Shelterbelt Development Program rehabilitate 1.3 million hectares of desertified land between along Yangtze River Basin 2001 and 2010. By program completion, the forest cover in (3Ns&YRB) (fourth stage of the the area covered by the program will be increased by project) 1.84%, and 12.66 million hectares of desertified, salinized and degraded grasslands will be protected and rehabilitated. In the lower-middle reaches of the Yangtze River, it is planned to afforest 18 million hectares of land, improve 7.33 million hectares of low-efficiency shelterbelts and regulate and protect 37.33 million hectares of existing forests during the period in 2001–2010.  83  Table 4-2 (cont.). The six Key Programs in forestry. (Adapted from State Forestry Administration, 2000–2006; Research Group of Sustainable Forestry Development, 2003). Wildlife Conservation and Nature Reserves Development Program (WCNRDP)  Forest Industrial Base Development Program in Key Regions with a Focus on FastGrowing and High-Yielding Timber Plantations (FIBDP) (third stage of the project)  Aim: increased conservation of critical species. Priorities are being given to three projects between 2001 and 2010. The first involves completing 15 wild fauna and flora protection projects, including those for the giant panda, golden monkey, Tibetan antelope and a number of orchids. The second involves completing 200 nature reserve projects in forests, wetland ecosystems and areas affected by desertification, 32 wetland conservation and comprehensive utilization demonstration projects and 50,000 nature reserve districts. The third project involves completing the germplasm pools required for wild fauna and flora conservation, a national research system for wild fauna and flora and the establishment of appropriate monitoring networks. By 2010, there should be 1,800 nature reserves, including 220 State-level ones, covering 16% of China's total land area (i.e., double the figure suggested by (1)). The protection of these reserves is enforced, but some economic activities are permitted (such as the harvesting of bamboo). Aim: to ease the shortage of timber supply and reduce the pressure of timber demands on forest resources. It plans to establish 13 million hectares of fast-growing, high-yield timber plantations in three phases between 2001 and 2015. At completion, this program will provide 130 million cubic meters of timber annually, meeting 40% of China's commercial timber consumption, and thus maintaining an initial balance between the supply of and demand for timber.  There has also been significant progress in afforestation, with 28 million ha. of plantations established in the past 6 years (State Forestry Administration, 2005–2007). The Conversion of Cropland to Forest Program (CCFP) – which pays farmers to plant trees rather than crops – has converted 8.8 million ha. of cropland into forests (State Forestry Administration, 2006). Under the CCFP, soil erosion has been reduced by 4.1 million ha, representing a 4.1% annual reduction. For the first time since the establishment of the People's Republic of China, desertification has been reversed, from an annual increase of 3436 km2 at the end of the 20th century, to the current annual reduction of 1283 km2 (State Forestry Administration, 2006). This has been largely achieved through the Sand Control Programs for areas in the vicinity of Beijing and Tianjin, the Three-North Shelterbelt Development Program and the Shelterbelt Development Program along the Yangtze River Basin programs. During 2001–2006, 831 natural reserves were created, and 19.5 million ha. of forestland and special sites were protected under the Wildlife Conservation and Nature Reserves Development Program (State Forestry Administration, 2005–2007). The total area of plantations in China now amounts to 53 million ha, with forest cover increasing from 16.6 to 18.2%, and the forest stock volume increasing from 11.567 billion m 3 to 12.456 billion m3 since the start of the SKFPs (State Forestry Administration, 2005).  84  4.1.2 Problems and obstacles The booming economy has placed greater pressure on a system not yet capable of balancing the growth in wood demand with environmental needs and social justice. Although the Central Government has been proactive in trying to improve China's forestry basis, the on-the-ground effects at the state and local levels have been mixed. For example, the Central Government has been providing major funding for tree-planting, but local governments lack the funding to implement the programs effectively (State Forestry Administration, 2003). Transfer of responsibilities to local governments means that there is no guarantee of continued funding for the stewardship of the new forests. It is also unclear whether resettled workers and local farmers are directly benefiting from some of the projects. In areas covered by the logging ban, the decline of community services may have exacerbated their economic difficulties. Local corruption is widespread and under-regulated corporations have been accused of usurping user rights and failing to compensate farmers for their land.  Figure 4-1. Forest police patrol in a protected forest area. China has about 60,000 specially trained forest police to enforce policies such as the logging ban. Photo credit: Forest Police Bureau, State Forestry Administration. Reforming China's complex system of forest ownership and user rights is critical to the longterm implementation of its forestry programs. Land ownership reforms will provide farmers 85  with rights to plant trees for income and will give incentives to protect forests. The reforms involve transfer of land to individuals or companies, and compensation packages for those not receiving land. In the CCFP program, the delay in ownership reform has resulted in farmers planting their forest land even though they have no property rights. In some areas impacted by the NFFP program, the needs of local people have been inadequately considered and compensation levels have been too low to offset their losses. Progress in the Forest Industrial Base Development Program, which focuses on fast-growing and high-yielding commercial timber plantations, has been slow, with uncertainty over forestland ownership, resulting in only 0.19 million ha. of new plantations established in the last 6 years (State Forestry Administration, 2005–2007).  4.2  OWNERSHIP REFORMS AND AUXILIARY POLICIES  Forest ownership reform started in Fujian and Jiangxi provinces and has been extended to the provinces of Zhejiang, Liaoning, Heibei, Shandong, Anhui, and Guangdong. The Central Government has removed or reduced forestry taxes to encourage tree planting and forest products manufacturing. Local governments have removed provincial taxes and some fees on forest products. For example, Fujian province has reduced forest product taxes and fees from 46% of the total sale price to 26%. Simultaneously, the government is using transfer payments to support local governance organizations that used to be financed by forest taxes and fees. The Jiangxi provincial government lost $182.5 million in tax revenue but had this sum supplied instead by transfer payments. As a direct result of this change, the average annual cash income for each farmer increased by 13%, or just over $10 (SJDITF, 2007). To provide a mechanism for the trading of forest assets – land and timber – China established its first pilot futures market, the Fujian Yong'an Forestry Elements Market, in 2004. The market consists of a forest and forestland registration centre, a forest resource evaluation centre, a timber and bamboo exchange, a legal and technical service centre, and a labour training centre. By May 2007, the market had bought and sold 20,766 ha. of forest and provided purchasing loans worth $63.8 million (Sun, 2007). In Jiangxi province, there are now 36 such markets established or being set up, and the number of deals has exceeded 3000, valued at $120 million (SJDITF, 2007).  4.3  FUTURE FOREST MANAGEMENT STRUCTURES  The Chinese government is beginning a new phase of forestry reforms intended to open the forest sector to much greater individual and corporate participation, largely through private sector financing. This represents a major break from the past, when most forestry activities were managed through the government. It aims to increase China's forest cover to 26% by 2050, to improve environmental quality, and to develop a competitive forest industry that depends largely on a domestic fibre supply. To achieve these goals, several changes in policy are being instituted (Central Committee, 2003), beginning with the separation of ecological and commercial forests, each having separate 86  management policies. However, the policies for managing ecological forests and commercial forests are not yet fully in place and need to be integrated with sustainable forest management systems. The government will strictly protect ecological forests, increasing fire, pest, and biodiversity protection and preventing logging or the conversion of ecological forests to other uses. Local communities and farmers will be compensated if their land is classified as ecological forest. On commercial forests, the government will grant much greater leeway to develop management plans and will allow farmers the freedom to determine harvest age (based on economic maturity), apply intensive forest management, select tree species, pursue economic benefits, and harvest on their own timetable based on agreed forest management plans. The government will also allow regional planners to use private funding to achieve these goals. The government will no longer control, but rather, encourage, the development of the commercial wood products trade. Although the reforms represent a major shift in policy, the government will continue to be the ultimate authority in regional planning, zoning, and policy direction. The government will still govern forest asset ownership and transference rights, such as issuing licenses for land-use rights, forest ownership, and ownership exchange. It will set regulations to require forest practices to follow sustainable forest management and will encourage the private or public sector to fill gaps to provide services for forest management, such as management consultation, road-building, nurseries, wood markets, and logging.  87  4.4  REFERENCES  Cao, Q.Y. 2007. State Forestry Administration Press Conference (in Chinese), www.forestry.gov.cn/xwfbh/xwfbh070912.asp. Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and China State Council. 2003. Directive to enhance forestry development. Issued 25 June 2003; Xinhua News Agency, Beijing. Accessed at 11 September 2003. http://news.xinhuanet.com/zhengfu/200309/11/content_1075042.htm Ma, J. 2006. A path to environmental harmony. Chinadialogue. Accessed at 30 November 2006); www.chinadialogue.net. State Forestry Administration. 2003. A report for monitoring and assessment of the socialeconomic impacts of China's Key Forestry Programs. China Forestry Publishing House: Beijing. State Forestry Administration. 2000–2006. China forestry development report. China Forestry Publishing House: Beijing. State Forestry Administration. 1993–2006. China forestry statistical yearbook. China Forestry Publishing House: Beijing, Research Group of Sustainable Forestry Development. 2003. Study on China sustainable forestry strategic development. China Forestry Publishing House: Beijing, China (In Chinese). SFA (State Forestry Administration). 2006. Enhancing forestry ecological improvement and accelerating development of the industry. State Forestry Administration, Beijing. SJDITF (Six Joint-Departmental Investigation Task Force). 2007. Investigation report on Jiangxi forest ownership reform. State Forestry Administration. Beijing, China. Sun X.X. 2007. Fujian forest-ownership reform on-the-spot report. Chinanews. Accessed at 6 July. 2007. www.chinanews.com.cn/cj/kong/news/2007/07-06/973437.shtml. p. 15 (in Chinese). UNECE Timber Committee. 2006. Statement on forest products markets in 2006 and prospects for 2007. Report ECE/TIM/06/N01, UNECE Timber Committee, Geneva. Zhang, P.C., Shao, G.F., Zhao, G., Le Master, D.C., Parker, G.R., Dunning, J.B. Jr. and Li, Q.L. 2000. China's forest policy for the 21st century. Science 288 (5474): 2135–2136.  88  5  5.1  ACHIEVING SUSTAINABLE RURAL DEVELOPMENT IN SOUTHERN CHINA: THE CONTRIBUTION OF BAMBOO FORESTRY6  INTRODUCTION  There are approximately 87 genera and 1,500 species of bamboo in the world, with roughly 100 species being of economic importance (Ohrnberger, 1999). Globally, there are approximately 14 million ha. of bamboo forests, distributed mainly in Asia, the Pacific, the Americas and Africa. A significant proportion of these forests are located in China, where there are more than 500 species spread across in 35 genera (Li and Kobayashi, 2004). Of these, 56 species have been recommended for the production of edible shoots, 58 species for timber production and 18 for pulp and paper production (Li and Kobayashi, 2004). Bamboo has a 7000-year history of cultivation and utilization in China and, today, bamboo is still used to make many household articles. Bamboo shoots are a major food source. The physical and mechanical properties of bamboo timber make bamboo an ideal material for houses, scaffolding, supporting pillars, and work sheds. The introduction of sustainable development to China has created new directions for bamboo management (Zheng and Hong, 1998). It has been become one of the main foci for sustainable forest management, environmental protection and rural development (Li, 2001; Hui et al., 2003; Chen, 2003). The unique characteristics of bamboo forests make them important for sustainable forest management in southern China for a number of reasons (Ruiz Perez et al., 2001, 2003). Bamboo forest can be regenerated easily using stem cuttings, and reaches maturity at around 5– 6 years (Zheng, 1998). Bamboo forests develop by spreading rhizomes; this well-developed underground system promotes soil stability, water conservation and wildlife. The forests need to be thinned every year in order to keep the forest ecosystem healthy (Scurlock, 2000). This provides a constant income from the timber for farmers without damaging the environment. Bamboo timber is a good substitute for wood, as current technology enables the processing of bamboo strips into bamboo flooring, panels, boards, and laminated beams. Bamboo shoots, rich in fibre, are an important household vegetable and are also a traditional export product.  5.2  THE DEVELOPMENT OF BAMBOO IN CHINA  5.2.1 Development of bamboo forests and the bamboo industry Driven by the requirements for sustainable forest development, there have been several major advances in bamboo management since 1977. The 2007 Forestry Statistical Yearbook reveals that there are 7.2 million hectares of bamboo forests (SFA, 2008), a 3.5 million ha. increase 6  A version of this chapter has been published. Wang, G.Y., Innes, L.J., Dai, S.Y., He, G.H. 2008. Achieving sustainable rural development in Southern China: Perspectives from bamboo forestry. International Journal of Sustainable Development and World Ecology 15: 1-12. The version presented here has been significantly altered from the published version at the request of the external examiner. 89  since 1978. In recent years, the area of bamboo has forest increased by 90,000 ha. annually, with much of it being Moso bamboo (Phyllostachys heterocycla var. pubescens) (Figure 5–1). The non-Moso forest area has also gradually increased in significance over time, and an increase in the economic value of non-Moso forests has encouraged farmers to convert agricultural land to bamboo forests.  5000  Stand volume 1,000 tonnes 150000  4000  120000  3000  90000  2000  60000  1000  30000  Area 1,000 ha  0 1977-1981  1983-1988  Total Area 1000 ha  1989-1993 Moso bamboo 1000 ha  1993-1998  0 1998-2003 Year Stand Volume 1000 ton  Figure 5-1. Development of bamboo forest in China since 1977. (Data derived from China National Inventory and State Forestry Administration, 1997–1998, 1993–1988, 1989–2003, 1993–1998 and 1998–2003). Traditionally, 90% of the Chinese bamboo forest comprised Moso bamboo, concentrated in Fujian, Jiangxi, Zhejiang, Hunan, Guangdong and Sichuan Provinces (Zheng and Hong, 1998; SFA, 2008). Today, more than 20 species are cultivated in over 18 provinces, and bamboos occupy more than 3% of the total forest area, accounting for 25% of the value of China‘s forest exports (Ruiz Peréz et al., 2003). Today, Moso bamboo comprises about 3.5 million ha., accounting for about 63% of the total bamboo forest area in China. Fujian, Jiangxi, Zhejiang, and Hunan Provinces contain over 50% of the national bamboo forest estate (Table 5–1).  90  Table 5-1. Distribution of forest and bamboo in China. Source: Data derived from the Fifth National Continuous Forest Inventory Database 2005.  Province Fujian Jiangxi Zhejiang Hunan Guangdong Sichuan Guangxi Anhui Yunnan Hubei  Total forest area (1000 ha.) 12,150 16,672 10,180 21,184 17,790 56,608 23,760 13,817 38,264 18,586  Total area of bamboo (1000 ha.) 681 552 510 506 355 346 240 203 125 121  Percentage of bamboo 5.6 3.3 5.0 2.4 2.0 0.6 1.0 1.5 0.3 0.7  5.2.2 Increase in the quality and quantity of bamboo forest Over the last twenty years, 60% of the low-value and low-productivity bamboo stands have been converted into high-quality and high-productivity stands. The average stand density has increased from 1350 to 2100 stems per ha, while the average diameter of Moso bamboo has increased by 33%. The amount of forest being managed intensively has increased from 6% to 15% (Li and Kobayashi, 2004). Although annual production has varied since 1978, a gradual increase in production is evident (Figure 5–2).  Figure 5-2. Annual bamboo production in China. Source: Data adapted from the China Forestry Statistical Yearbook (State Forestry Administration, 2007).  91  In 2007, the annual harvest of bamboo in China was approximately 1398 million culms, equivalent to 20 million m3 of round wood. Bamboo manufacturing plants have increased from fewer than 2000 in 1977, to 12,190 in 2003. In 2003, over two million people were employed in the industry and more than ten million farmers were engaged in bamboo forest management (Chen, 2003).  5.2.3 Expanding utilization of bamboo The development of bamboo processing technologies has enabled the use of bamboo in engineered flooring materials, plywood, laminated beams, boards and panels, all of which have greatly increased the utilization of bamboo products (e.g., Chen, 2003; Dong, 2003; Pande, 2008). In 2008, the production of bamboo flooring was about 20.5 million m2, and bamboo plywood and panels exceeded 3.29 million m3 (SFA, 2008), while in 2003 the figures were only 10 million m2 and about 1 million m3, respectively. The main application of bamboo plywood and panels is for the baseboards of containers, forming boards for concrete and cement, and for furniture and interior decoration. Bamboo can be used for pulp and paper. A large-scale bamboo paper and pulp mill was established in 1995 in Shaowu City (Fujian province). It alone has an annual production of 200,000 tonnes. Its annual bamboo consumption is 800,000 tonnes of green bamboo timber. The planned capacity of bamboo pulp production by the end of 2010 will reach up 3.95 million tonnes according to the China Eleven-fifth (2005-2010) National Plan (China National Development and Reform Committee, 2004; Chen, 2008).  5.2.4 Expansion of bamboo shoot production The expansion of the bamboo shoot industry has been documented by Zhu (2003) for Lin'an County, Zhejiang Province. Here, there was a ten-fold increase in the area used for growing bamboo shoots between 1982 and 2002. Annual production of fresh shoots increased over the same period from 7280 tonnes to 135,250 tonnes, and its value increased from US$ 260,000 to US$ 39.4 million. While the changes coincide with a number of local government reforms (Kant and Chiu, 2002), similar increases have been seen elsewhere.  5.3  METHODOLOGY  We examined the role that bamboo forests has been playing in sustainable rural development in southern China, especially in Fujian and Zhejiang provinces. We focused on the issues surrounding bamboo development and the actions that are needed to facilitate a better contribution of the bamboo forest industry to local social, economic and ecological development. The statistical data were derived through existing reports, publications and papers, and were supplemented by data from interviews undertaken in 2002 and 2003 in the target areas, and field survey data (including soil physical and chemical data) from the authors‘ current study areas in 5-ha bamboo (Dendrocalamopsis oldhamis) forest permanent research plots at Longtan Creek and ZhuYuan, Fuzhou National Forest Park, and from five of the main bamboo-producing counties in Fujian Province: Shaxiang, Jianou, Shaowu, Yongan and Jiangyang. The plots were established to test the relationship between bamboo forest management and soil productivity. 92  Interviews were conducted in the bamboo-growing areas of Fujian and Zhejiang provinces (Table 5–2) with farmers, bamboo resource professionals, managers from bamboo processing plants and trade centres, and local government officers in four towns with major bamboo industries. Table 5-2. Type of interviewees in each of the four counties. County Jian Ou, Fujian Yong-An, Fujian An Ji, Zhejiang Lian An, Zhejiang  Farmer 122 134 125 124  Technical professional 16 16 17 16  Manager  Officer  16 17 16 17  26 27 27 26  The interviews focused on current bamboo management strategies and related issues and specifically aimed to determine: the use of bamboo forest management models and their development, householder and community income structure derived from bamboo, the main bamboo product flows and the beneficiaries of these flows, bamboo management costs, taxes, and profits, the existence of participatory and decision-making processes, and any other issues and potential for the development of the industry. The interviews were based on an open-ended questionnaire that was dependent on the setting of the meeting and the situation of bamboo development in the area being considered. The questionnaire and interviews were conducted and analyzed in Chinese. A summary of the main aspects covered by the interviews is provided in Table 5–3. Data were analyzed using SPSS12 software package.  93  Table 5-3. Summary of the interview questions. Aspects Personal information  Question  Bamboo owners/technical professionals/managers/government officers  Attitude toward bamboo management  Bamboo management model    Income structure (household and community) Management cost, tax, profit  Governance, organization and association                    Issues from bamboo management Suggestions           Model use in bamboo management chain– bamboo forest management, harvesting, processing, marketing and sale. Integration and secure approaches in the model – products flow/money flow/information flows Pros and cons of the models Total income/segments % from bamboo forest management % from bamboo raw products and processed products % from market sale Annual bamboo management cost/ per unit Structure of costs – labour, materials Bamboo production per unit area/harvest cost Raw bamboo timber sale price Profit from timber process Taxes and fees associated with bamboo forest management and product sale Ownership, organization and self-governance Main training and education sources/process Technical, management and marketing support from government, association, community and neighbours Learning curve in bamboo management/development Understanding of and attitude towards participatory management; change from participatory management PRA decision-making processes Issues related to management and incentive policies Financial issues Land use and ecological problems Obstacles associated with the management model Good management practices Improvement of government, association, and community to support Future planning  Secondary statistical data were derived from the national and provincial forest inventories (Chinese Academy of Forestry Planning and Design, 2005), statistical yearbooks (Chinese Forestry Administration, 2004) and general industry surveys from the last 25 years (1977–2003) (published in the appropriate regional statistical yearbooks). The data were gathered to identify the development of bamboo resources and the bamboo industry, with particular attention being 94  paid to the roles played by the bamboo industry in social development, economic growth and ecosystem protection in China.  5.4  RESULTS AND DISCUSSION  5.4.1 Sustainable forest management and rural development Over the past 20 years, the ability to process bamboo and its ecological importance has transformed bamboo into an important economic product relevant to rural development and an integral part of ecosystem protection schemes (Ruiz Peréz et al., 1999). As a result, traditional methods of management of the resource have shifted to its incorporation in sustainable forest management and rural development. Economic development associated with sustainable bamboo management Typical examples can be found in any of the ten ―China Bamboo Hometowns‖7. These counties are rich in bamboo resources and are also located in remote and relatively poor areas. Their economies are now dominated by the manufacturing of bamboo products, and markets for cultural and aesthetic interests have been developed. The bamboo forest industry directly or indirectly contributes more than 20% to their GDP. In Anji County, Zhejiang Province, where bamboo forested land accounts for 34% of the total area, the industry generated US$ 0.5 billion in 2001, about 28% of the total county‘s GDP. On average, each household in the area obtained US$ 762 from bamboo management, a fourfold increase since 1987. The income from bamboo accounted for 38% of total household incomes. In Jianou County, Fujian Province, the bamboo industry generated US$ 300 million revenue in 2004, with 63% coming from bamboo timber and shoot processing. Income from the export of bamboo products was about US$ 12 million. The per capita income of farmers generated by bamboo has increased 38% since 1998, and is now 48% of their total annual income. The relationship between the development of the forest and the increase in income from bamboo management is shown in Figure 5–3.  7  The China State Forestry Administration designated ten counties as the ―China Bamboo Hometowns‖ in 1996. They are: Jianou and Shunchang, Fujian Province; Linan and Anji, Zhejiang Province; Congyi and Jiangxi, Yifeng Province; Guanning, Guandong Province; Guande, Anhui Province; Taojiang, Hunan Province; Shishui, Guizhou Province. 95  90 80 70 60 50 40  30 20 10 0 1989  1995  1998  Area (10 thousand ha)  Stock (100million tonnes)  Revenue (US$100million)  Income per capita (%)  2005  Figure 5-3. Development of bamboo management indices since 1989 in Jianou City. (Data provided by the Jianou Forestry Bureau). We examined the contributions made by bamboo and related industries to household earnings and the local economic sector in Huangdao, Jianou City, in 2002. Bamboo accounted for 28% of annual household income, slightly lower than agriculture and forestry. 71% of the income from bamboo was generated from the sale of bamboo timber, with bamboo shoots and top ‗logs‘ accounting for the remaining 29%. At the township level, about 25% of the total revenue was generated by the bamboo forest industry. The development of a large bamboo-processing industry has had significant impacts on local managers. The scattered, small-scale, and family-based bamboo management models were unsuitable for industrial development due to lack of cost-effectiveness. Instead, as recommended by Zheng and Lu (2003), there has been a gradual increase in the number of management models that combine farmers, professional associations, bamboo exchange markets and bamboo manufacturers together into bamboo industrial partnerships. The basis for these organizations is the mutual sharing of risks and benefits. The analysis of the data reveals that four bamboo management models can be described. These are summarized in Table 5–4. In the first stage, farmers work together to share experiences and knowledge and to consolidate their sales. Then, jointly with bamboo trade centres and manufacturers, a more professional and robust model is created. Currently, the four concurrent management models reflect differences in local economic well-being. However, the most successful model for bamboo development appears to be the ―company + bamboo production bases + household‖ model. In this, companies, manufacturers and traders are the consumers of bamboo timber and shoots. As a result, farmers experience a more secure market demand, 96  allowing them to organize themselves for large-scale production and to develop long-term management objectives (e.g., Li et al., 2004). Table 5-4. Management models for the development of a sustainable bamboo industry. Model Households – Professional association  Functions Farmers‘ self-organized association provides professional training, unifies pricing and marketing.  Households – Exchange markets  Contracted or market-oriented production. Some exchange markets or centres provide a portion of payment to support farmers and secure their supply.  Households – Manufacturers  Demand-oriented production. Manufacturer secures the farmers‘ production, and some manufacturers provide farmers with financial support and simple machinery to process raw materials into semi-manufactured products.  Household – Bamboo production bases – Companies  Multiple chains and complex systems.  Several international organizations have become involved in bamboo development in China and have been very successful, especially the International Network for Bamboo and Rattan (INBAR), the World Bank and the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Technische Zusammenarbeit GmbH (GTZ), all of which have helped to establish management models for bamboo development. In 2003–2004, financial institutions, such as the China Insurance Company, the Agricultural Bank of China and the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, were directly or indirectly investing in the bamboo forest industry. Although the results are not readily apparent, the industrialized models are likely to result in more sustainable management due to the diversity of investing partners. Societal development associated with sustainable bamboo management Ruiz Peréz et al. (2004) have shown the economic contribution of bamboo management to farmers, and how different income levels gained from bamboo have varied and have been dependent on the stage of rural development. However, this study only dealt with the direct income from bamboo. We have adopted a more holistic approach that considers the combined effects of the entire bamboo forest industry on society. We examined the development of bamboo since 1985 and classified it into four stages (Table 5–5), moving from small-scale production for timber and shoots to large-scale industrial production.  97  Table 5-5. Bamboo development stages in China. Stage First stage (1983–1990) Second stage (1990–1997) Third stage (1997–2005) Fourth stage (2005–2015)  Goal  Measurement  Improvement of bamboo forest quality and quantity  Bamboo forest rehabilitation, expansion and fertilization. Production is familyoriented, with hand-made products. Development of bamboo Industrialized use of bamboo timber and manufacturing shoots. Large facilities and employment. Development of a bamboo Centralized and mass bamboo trading market system and trade network center and exchange market. Sustainable bamboo forest Adoption of a sustainable management management and industry approach and ISO 1400 criteria and development indicators.  The development of bamboo management systems has brought prosperity to local economies. For example in Taojiang County, Hunan Province, more than 20% of the population is now working in bamboo-related businesses; among them, 100,000 people are engaged in bamboo forest management, 30,000 are employed in the bamboo industry, and around 10,000 with bamboo products trading. In Anji County, Zhejiang Province, there were only eight private bamboo manufacturers with about 1,000 employees in 1992. By 1998, this had increased to 573 bamboo manufacturers and 17,180 workers, with 50% of them being women. By 2003, the number had increased to 1600 bamboo manufacturers and more than 20,000 workers. The importance of women in bamboo-related industries is something that has previously been reported (e.g., Huang and Yang, 2004), although primarily during the first two stages of development. One of the most significant recent social developments has been the adoption of participatory forestry and participatory rural appraisal (PRA) (Chambers, 1994a, 1994b, 1994c; Kapoo, 2001; Fagerstrom, 2003a, 2003b; Fraser et al., 2006) processes for the development of new models of bamboo management. These processes try to help local people shift from commune (government) management-oriented systems to proprietor (household ownership) oriented management systems. In several counties in Fujian and Zhejiang Provinces, even though the farmland ownership reforms were implemented in the 1980s, people continue to manage bamboo forests in a highly prescriptive fashion. Particularly in remote areas, local government officials are still using planned economy systems to allot a task to each farmer and still decide which species farmers should plant, where the planting should take place, how the bamboo forest should be managed and how benefits should be allocated. Due to the lack of farmer participation, government technical support, financial motivation and market orientation, bamboo management in such areas was trapped in a simple reproduction cycle. On revisiting these areas in 2002 and 2003, after participatory forestry approaches had been adopted and put into practice, many significant changes were observed, signalling greater motivation amongst farmers for community involvement. The shifts from traditional management to participatory management are summarized in Table 5–6.  98  Table 5-6. Changing patterns of bamboo management before and after implementing the participatory management (1998–2003). Traditional management (1998)  Participatory management (2002 and 2003)  Main body Decision making process  Government Government leading systems ‗top-down‘ Decision maker: government  Household (farmer) Participatory systems ‗bottomup‘ Decision maker: stakeholders  Beneficiaries  Government state-owned firms, farmers Timber and shoots Public Passive  Households, shareholders  Provide mainly to stateowned manufacturers or trade companies Local government and affiliated institutions (vertical)  Self-determined and marketoriented  Management purpose Ownership Motivation of the farmer Marketing approach  Support systems  Multiple purposes Private Active (self-motivated)  Government, financial institutions, research and consulting firms, and local community (horizontal)  Limited support  Participants  Male dominated  Newly developed support systems provide a huge range of practical and technical support and training for farmers Males and females participate equally in activities  Ecosystem development associated with sustainable bamboo management The unique characteristics of bamboo make it an ideal species for barren-land afforestation and riparian protection (Scurlock, 2000; Ruiz Perez et al., 2001; Ruiz Perez, 2004). Bamboo plantations in the Min, Jiulong and Shajiang River watersheds in Fujian province are good examples of the important role that bamboo plays in sustainable ecosystem development in these over-exploited, human-dominated areas. The survey (Zheng and Wang, 2002) revealed that in the Shaijiang River watershed, a riparian bamboo forest (Dendrocalamopsis oldhamii) was planted after the major floods in 1998 and, since then, soil erosion has decreased by 30%. In a bamboo (Phyllostachys sulphurea) forest in the Min River Watershed, we found that canopy water interception was 128 mm in stands with a density of 833 stems per hectare (3m x 4m), higher than local Masson pine (Pinus massoniana) forest of a similar density, which had 77 mm interception. The water-retaining capacity of bamboo forest is around 3700–4200 t ha-1 of water, 30–45% more than Chinese fir 99  (Cunninghamia lanceolata), and 1.5 times greater than Masson pine. The data reveal that the sympodial bamboos (e.g., Dendrocalamopsis oldhamii and Dendrocalamus latiflorus) that are widely planted on roadsides, riversides and house-sides within the flood plain not only increase soil protection and river bank stability, but also act as wind breaks and in the amelioration of visual quality. Consequently, it can be concluded that bamboo forests provide better riparian protection than some other forest types, stabilizing river banks and protecting them from erosion. Recently, due to the rapidly expanding bamboo forest resources and manufacturing sector, there has been an increasing focus on sustainable bamboo planting and growing (Ruiz Perez et al., 2004, Pande and Pandey, 2008), and on the configuration of bamboo forest ecosystems, such as use of a bamboo root cover technique to protect soil and promote bamboo shoot development. Attention is also starting to focus on mixed forest and landscape configurations – planting bamboo with Chinese fir, Masson pine, schima (Schima superba), and kao (Castanopsis fargesii).  5.4.2 Major issues for sustainable bamboo development Although provincial governments are paying significant attention to bamboo development, there are still many problems. Some of these issues are related to current systems of governance, which appear to require reform, while others are related to local economic development and traditional management practices. Ecological issues The interviews revealed that large-scale development of bamboo forests has helped reclaim barren land and enhance local ecosystems. At the same time, improper management practices have caused serious ecological problems. Firstly, the monoculture of bamboo forests has had disastrous consequences in some ecosystems. Forest inventory data from the ten main bamboo counties show that in many townships, bamboo monocultures cover areas in excess of 1000 ha. Secondly, traditional cultivation approaches and intensive management have resulted in soil pollution and erosion. Many farmers still use out-dated methods to cultivate bamboo forest, such as annual weeding, digging, and fertilizing, as well as harvesting bamboo shoots without replacing the soil and protecting it. These practices are often conducted in spring, the wet season in China. In two 5-ha bamboo (Dendrocalamopsis oldhamis) permanent plots at Longtan Creek and ZhuYuan, Fuzhou National Forest Park, we observed by comparing with two ck plots, over a ten-year period, an average of 15 cm reduction in soil depth in plots treated using traditional cultivation methods. Analysis of soil samples from the five existing experimental sites at Shaxiang, Jianou, Shaowu, Yongan and Jiangyang in Fujian Province revealed that the intensive management of monoculture bamboo forest is contributing to the depletion of soil nutrient levels (Zheng and Wang, 2002). Over-exploitation has degraded soil productivity, which has also caused large-scale bamboo forest flowering and dieback. Currently, widespread diseases (such as Ceratosphaeria phyllostachydis) can also be related to the adoption of bamboo monocultures. Bamboo development policies The taxes on bamboo are higher than for other forest or agricultural products. The results of surveys conducted from 1999 to 2002 are shown in Table 5–7. There are between 13 and 16 different government taxes on bamboo timber, accounting for 30–50% of the total sale price. 100  Some local governments have also imposed additional fees. The high taxes imposed on the number of culms (instead of the area cultivated) have resulted in low profit margins (less than 5% in most cases), and have seriously affected the motivation of local people to manage bamboo forest in a sustainable way. They have also resulted in illegal removals. The differing tax rates between counties and provinces have caused many logistical problems. The Fujian Provincial Government implemented an incentive bamboo tax regulation in 2002, which postponed or waived the imposition of some of the bamboo taxes, but this has not completely resolved the problem. Table 5-7. Current taxes for bamboo timber.  Yongan City, Fujian Province Shouwu City, Fujian Province Nanping city, Fujian Province Nanjin County, Fujian Province Liuyan city, Hunan Province  Number of separate taxes 13 13 16 13 14  Taxes per culm (US$) 0.50 0.34–0.57 0.52 0.28 0.21  Percentage of sale price 30% 36%–47% 50% 46% 52%  Logging regulations are also hindering the development of a bamboo forest resource. In some areas, bamboo yields are regarded as timber, and permission is required for logging bamboo. Zhejiang province promulgated in 2004 a new regulation ―Moso Bamboo harvesting regulation‖ that aimed to promote the development of bamboo resources and to replace the annual allowable cut (AAC) by an annual harvest quota (AHQ). This regulation has the appearance of an improvement in procedures but actually represents no real change in the current legal process. The AAC was determined every five years, then allocated on an annual basis, with some adjustments based on market and management requirements (such as disease, wind or snow damage). Limitations of the household-based responsibility model In China, the 1978 land reforms gave a certain amount of arable land to farmers to manage for a specific number of years (commonly on a 30-year renewable basis), based on the number of persons resident in the household. This was known as the Household Responsibility System (HRS). Some provinces allotted bamboo forest land to households, about 0.66 ha. (10 Chinese mu) for a 3-person family (in theory, the income from 10 mu of bamboo forest can support a family‘s living expenses). This policy caused the fragmentation of bamboo forest, but has been successful in increasing farmer‘s involvement in bamboo development. However, the HRS has only allocated certain management rights to farmers, rather than ceding full property rights. The development of the bamboo processing industry requires a large harvesting base and this has caused conflicts between small-scale farmers and large-scale industry. The most common conflicts have been between small-scale household management and the need for mass supply; between household self-sufficiency management and large-scale timber management, and between traditional management practices and sustainable management approaches. These conflicts have resulted in calls for the modification of the HRS. Consequently, the development of practical policies for the exchange and trade of bamboo forests has become a major issue for governments.  101  Duplication of bamboo processing and manufacturing facilities The increasing supply of bamboo and the lack of advanced technologies available for timber and shoot processing have resulted in a proliferation of low-technology manufacturing facilities. According to the China National Industry Survey, 13% of bamboo mills have annual revenues above US$ 120,000 in China (see Table 5–8), but only 212 mills were regarded as new product producers, with 153 mills producing bamboo panels and 59 mills producing bamboo flooring. Of all the so-called industrialized products, only bamboo flooring, bamboo plywood and canned bamboo shoots can be traded in international markets. The utilization rates for bamboo flooring and plywood are only 30% and 50%, respectively. The manufacturing process is still largely dependent on labour-intensive processes, particularly gluing, which could be automated. This has resulted in formaldehyde emission levels from finished products being higher than the E1 European standard. The formaldehyde problem has also resulted in increasing concerns over the health of workers and the stability of products. Table 5-8. Classification of the bamboo processing industry. Revenues are in 10,000 RMB. Annual Revenue Number of mills Percentage  <100 10,579 87%  100–500 1195 9.8%  500–1000 380 3.1%  1000–5000 27 0.22%  >5000 9 0.07%  Total 12,190 100%  Over-dependence on bamboo Although rural economies have diversified to a much greater extent than previously, they still depend on the bamboo industry. As a result, any failure could bring disaster to local economies and people‘s livelihoods. There is thus a question over the sustainability of bamboo management and the development of other industries. The participatory management approach needs to be improved The result shows the key to successful bamboo development lies in participatory forestry and PRA processes, but these require improvement. Firstly, local government officers continue to treat decision making and strategic planning as a privileged process. Farmers, on the other hand, are unaware of the importance of participating in these processes. Secondly, the PRA process is misunderstood. During interviews, 56% of government staff and 78% of farmers interpreted PRA as public consultation or hearings. Thirdly, conflicts exist between technical advisers and farmers. Advisors complain that farmers are rigid and stereotyped in their thinking, while farmers consider the information from technical advisors of little value and incognizant of local conditions. The results of surveys undertaken in four townships in Fujian province are illustrative. The surveys focused on the main sources that farmers used to obtain their bamboo management skills. Public education and training courses (provided by government) accounted for only 11% and 14% of skills development, respectively, whereas 64% of farmers learned their skills from relatives or neighbours (Table 5–9).  102  Table 5-9. Sources of training for farmers. Sources Percentage  5.5  Public media (TV, newspapers) 11%  Relatives and neighbours 64%  Training courses 14%  Others 11%  CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS  The bamboo forest industry has played an important role in the sustainable development of rural areas in southern China, especially in relation to ecosystem restoration and poverty relief (Chen, 2003). The active participation of farmers has improved self-governance and decision-making. However, there are still many areas that need to be improved if sustainable management and community development in the bamboo-dominated areas is to be achieved. For optimum strategic development, the relationships between social, economic and ecological systems need to be well-balanced in order to achieve a sustainable bamboo forest industry. Four elements required to achieve sustainable bamboo forest management in China are the conversion of the government‘s functions and roles, establishment of farmers as the main body responsible for the management of bamboo forest, public participation, and NGO support and service systems. The government is gradually withdrawing from the economic arena and is concentrating more on facilitation and guidance. Based on the current situation of wood shortages, environmental fragility and the need for rural poverty relief, the government needs to take a number of steps to help the development of a sustainable bamboo forest sector, including developing its management, the processing industry and an appropriate marketing network. The results of the survey indicate that government should clarify land ownership, resolving management rights and property rights; it should develop national and regional strategic plans and normalize social services; it should develop support and consultation systems and a bamboo products market, and it should standardize bamboo management and logging practices and legalize preferential taxes to promote sustainable development. Current forest taxes are based on yield, which means that the higher the yield per unit area, the more tax is paid. Higher yields generally result from increased investment or improvement management, and the tax system therefore fails to reflect or encourage the use of technology, investment or improved management. The survey identified that an area-based management system would form a suitable basis for taxation, and would also enable a better harvest level determination. Participatory forestry has been playing an important role in many bamboo development areas, although there is still much room for improvement. The concepts and procedures of meaningful public participation require careful explanation to the many potential participants (e.g. Jin, 2004, Shi et al. 2008). Broad-scale public consultation, involvement and constructive critiques are important for bamboo management. Public involvement in strategic planning, decision making, project implementation, process monitoring and evaluation are critical to the participation process. Public participation is not only suited to understanding public concerns and absorbing local wisdom, but also generates awareness and attention, facilitating the public involvement processes itself (Jin, 2004). 103  As the privatization of the bamboo forest industry and the gradual withdrawal of government from the general business sector proceeds, there has been a growing need for public support and service systems to fill the position of the government and regulate business behaviour (Shi et al., 2008). It would appear that two types of public support and service organizations are required: self-organized associations and a public service and consulting system. The self-organized associations should regulate the general practices for trade, develop strategic planning for the sector, provide training and consultation, and be responsible for product quality control and marketing. The non-governmental public support systems should provide services for the bamboo forest industry, such as research institutes, consulting firms, project contractors, and business trade companies. Farmers, as bamboo managers and beneficiaries, need to increase their awareness of their roles as stakeholders and need to take responsibility for the development of bamboo, not only for personal or family interests, but also for regional economic development, ecosystem restoration and long-term community development. Biodiversity, and soil and water protection, also need to be taken into account during daily management practices. China is a participant in the Montreal Process, which has developed criteria and indicators for sustainable forest management. These need to be incorporated into the principles of bamboo forest management. A conceptual model for the sustainable development of the bamboo sector during the current period of economic transition in China is given in Figure 5–4. A combination of government, farmer, local community and NGO support systems is essential for the sustainable management of bamboo forests and for economic development. The government needs to withdraw from directly managing bamboo but, simultaneously, needs to establish new forms of management and service systems, thereby increasing public participation and the confidence of farmers.  Government  Public participation  NGO support systems  Farmers and managers  Bamboo management and manufacturing  Figure 5-4. A conceptual model for bamboo management and development. 104  Bamboo forest is only one of many elements contributing to sustainable rural development in China; however, it encompasses all the potential advantages and disadvantages of Chinese rural reform. Privatization has limitations, and these limitations are becoming more apparent as the needs of economic development, namely reasonable scale resource management, cost effectiveness, and integrated business networks, are identified. China has a ‗rural collective forest land privatization reform‘ underway. This should help clarify ownership and responsibilities. However, land management rights and forest assets need to be exchangeable and tradable. This is important if farmers are to feel free to manage the forest, and such a change will encourage them to unite and form management groups or tree farms. The recognition of management rights and ownership will also enable the development of professional management teams that can manage the forest and coordinate with manufacturers to create a production chain. Such a trade mechanism is essential for improving bamboo management and Household Responsibility Systems. A valid system for the zoning of bamboo forests is essential to achieving sustainable management, both for developed and developing counties with bamboo forests. As with many forests (Nitschke and Innes, 2005), bamboo forests would benefit from zoning, with the most appropriate classification being ecological forest, intensive management, and multiple purpose (Wang, 1989; Xiao, 2001; Lin, 2008). Furthermore, the intensive and multiple purpose management zones need to be divided into those used for the production of shoots, those used for timber production and dual-use zones. This would classify the function and purpose of all stands, thereby providing the security for managers to use the most appropriate management methods. Mixed forests of bamboo and coniferous or broadleaved trees are unstable as they gradually become dominated by bamboo. The diversity of the understory is limited in most bamboo forests due to traditional practices such as weeding, logging, and the annual harvesting of shoots. To maintain biodiversity at the landscape level, large-scale monoculture bamboo forests need to be avoided. The configuration of broadleaf and conifer stands within the bamboo forest mosaic needs to be considered. Buffer zones need to be created to maintain biodiversity across the landscape; for example, mountain ridges should be planted with coniferous forests and riparian zones with either bamboo or replaced with local fire-resistant species. An increase in the number of bamboo species under management is also important for economic development and improvement. Since the 1980s, the Chinese government has successfully established millions of hectares of bamboo forest, which have not only restored fragile ecosystems but have also benefited local communities by alleviating poverty and reducing timber shortages. However, since the privatization and industrialization of bamboo forests resources and timber manufacture, the demand for bamboo resources has been steadily increasing. This increase in demand has created several issues for sustainable development. A key to success will be to organize management systems and to identify the respective roles of government, farmers, public support systems and public participation in the bamboo management process. Sustainable forest management criteria and indicators along with auditing systems need to be incorporated into bamboo forest management and timber and shoot manufacturing. Key issues such as ownership, management classification, maintenance of biodiversity, and use of traditional practices remain unresolved and require further examination. 105  5.6  REFERENCES  China National Development and Reform Committee 2004. The 2005–2010 National Plan for integration of forest and paper. China National Development and Reform Committee, Beijing. Chen, X.H. 2003. Promotion of bamboo for poverty alleviation and economic development. Journal of Bamboo and Rattan 2: 345–350. Chen, Y. 2003. Status on bamboo products market & development trend in China. World Bamboo and Rattan 1 (4): 55–62. Chinese Academy of Forestry 2005. The fifth national continuous forest inventory. Forest Resources Database (in Chinese) http://sdinfo.forestry.ac.cn/sjk_content.cfm?tt=05-M015.xml&jj=jg2.July. 2005. China Forestry Administration 2004. 2003 China forestry statistical yearbook. China Forestry Publishing House, Beijing. Dong, W.Y. 2003. The historical opportunity for sustainable bamboo industry development in China in the 21st century. World Forestry Research 16 (1): 26–30. Fujian Provincial Bureau of Statistics 1993–2006. Fujian statistical yearbook. Fujian Provincial Bureau of Statistics, Fuzhou. Hui, C.M., Yang, Y.M. and Yao, J.M. 2003. The ecological environmental benefits of bamboo and sustainable development of bamboo industry in China. 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Journal of Forestry 7: 14–20. Ruiz Peréz. M., Belcher, B., Fu, M.Y. and Yang, X.S. 2003. Forestry, poverty, and rural development. Perspectives from the bamboo subsector. In: Hyde, W.F., Belcher, B. and Xu, J. (eds.), China’s forests. Global lessons from market reforms. Resources for the Future, Washington DC,151–176pp. Ruiz Peréz, M., Belcher, B., Fu, M.Y. and Yang, X.S. 2004. Looking through the bamboo curtain: an analysis of the changing role of forest and farm income in rural livelihoods in China. International Forestry Review 6: 306–316. Ruiz Peréz, M., Zhong, M., Belcher, B., Xie, C. and Fu, M. 1999. The role of bamboo plantations in rural development: The case of Anji County, Zhejiang, China. World Development 27: 101–104. Scurlock, J.M.O., Dayton D.C. and Hames, B. 2001. Bamboo: an overlooked biomass resource? Biomass and Bioenergy 19:229–244. Shi D.J.,Yu, J.H.,Liu, Y.N.,Xie, Z.Z. 2008. 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Mao Bamboo Management. Xiamen University Press: Xiamen, 99pp. Zheng, Y.S. and Wang, G.Y.2002. Impact of Mao Bamboo on Ecological System and Nutrient Level in Fujian. Fujian Department of Forestry; Fuzhou. p.210. Zhu, Z.H. 2003. The industrialization and market orientation of bamboo shoot production in Lin'an County: a case study. Journal of Bamboo and Rattan 2: 441–452.  107  6  6.1  WATERSHED PATTERN AND CHANGES IN LAND USE IN THE MIN RIVER WATERSHED, FUJIAN8  INTRODUCTION  Watersheds provide a useful geographical scale for the sustainable management of natural resources. Quantifying watershed landscape patterns and land-use changes over time is a key to understanding regional ecosystem well-being and land-use sustainability. Remotely-sensed imagery is ideally suited for describing landscape-scale patterns relative to land-use change by comparing them over times. A number of studies have discussed the use of remote sensing images for land-use classification. Belanger and Grenier (2002) used Landsat images to quantify forest cover in the St. Lawrence Valley, Canada, and associated human population densities and various types of agricultural production with landscape fragmentation. Li et al. (2001) used Fragstats to quantify landscape structure in the Heihe River Basin, north-west China, indicating that the landscape pattern of the Heihe River Basin is mainly controlled by the distribution of water patterns. Li et al. (2004) used Landsat data to determine land-use change in an arid region of Yulin Prefecture in north-western China. The study showed that integration of remote sensing and Fragstats was an effective approach for detecting regional land-use changes over time. However, most of these studies used only two sets of imagery and were narrowly focused on the changes of the landscape pattern, without considering management practices and land-use policy on the ground, or entering into any detailed discussion of the causes of the land cover changes. The objectives of this study were: 1) to quantify the land-use and land cover changes in the Min River Watershed between 1986 and 2003 using multiple years of Landsat imagery; and 2) to examine the impacts of watershed management practices and changes in land-use policy on the watershed landscape.  6.2  METHODS  6.2.1 Study area The Min River is located in south-eastern China, between 116°30‘ and 119°30‘ E and 25°20‘ and 28°25‘ N. It is the longest river in Fujian Province and one of the ten longest rivers in China. The headwaters of the Min River are situated at an elevation of about 2115 m in the Wuyi Mountains in the north-western section of Fujian. The catchment covers an area of 60,000 km2. The location of the watershed and research area is shown in Figure 1–1. The Min River Watershed plays an important role in the social and economic geography of Fujian. Almost one-third of Fujian‘s population of approximately 11.9 million people inhabits the watershed. It accounts for over half of the total agricultural production, two-thirds of the 8  A version of this chapter has been submitted for publication. Wang, G.Y., Innes, J., Liu, L., Yu, K.Y., and Yan, K. Watershed Pattern and change in land-use in the Min River watershed, Fujian. The version presented here differs significantly from the submitted version at the request of the external examiner 108  commercial logging, and 60% of the drinking water in the province (Fujian Provincial Bureau of Statistics, 2007). As a consequence of the increase in population along the river, the watershed has become intensively used for agriculture, plantations and the construction of infrastructure, leading to the degradation of its ecosystems and widespread soil erosion and sedimentation (Wang et al., 2008a). Intensive development has led to the over-cutting of forests in the watershed, resulting in soil erosion, stream sedimentation, flooding and increased run-off. Large clearcuts and burning have caused serious soil erosion and reduced land productivity (Wang et al., 2008b), and the natural forest cover has declined significantly over the last 50 years (Zeng et al., 2003). The changes have resulted in the annual sand load of the river rising from 7 million tonnes in the 1950s to over 20 million tonnes in the 1990s (Chen, 2000). Since the 1990s, the watershed has been suffering from massive social, economic and environmental damage resulting from flooding, exacerbated by logging in the watershed. The flooding in 1998 alone cost the province US$ 1.2 billion, including both direct and indirect damage (Fujian Chorography Compilation Committee, 2002). Devastating floods or droughts have occurred every year since 2000. An understanding of the relationships between land-use changes, especially between the loss and fragmentation of natural forests and flooding, is crucial for effective forest management in the watershed. Detecting landscape fragmentation over time is an important step in examining this relationship.  6.2.2 Spatial data acquisition, classification and accuracy analysis Landsat Thematic Mapper imagery (Path, Row: 119–41, 119–42, 120–41, and 120–42) was acquired for the watershed for 1986, 1990, 2000 and 2003. Contour maps (1:50 000), a political boundary map (vector, 1:250 000), and the 5th (1998) and 6th (2003) Fujian province-wide forest inventory data were also used in this study. ERDAS software (Leica Geosystems) was used to combine bands, match histograms and merge the images. The contour maps were used for geo-correction, with an overall error of 0.576 pixels. The corrected 1986 images were used to rectify the 1990, 2000 and 2003 images, with the total errors being 0.042, 0.076, and 0.052 pixels. Standardization, radiation rectification, and linear stretch were used to enhance the quality of the images, and the logarithm residual method (Okada et al., 1993; ERDAS 2007) was used to reduce the impact of the atmosphere on the pixels. The 2003 corrected image was then used to establish a classified template and histogram matching was used to classify the rest of images. The images were classified into ten cover types based on the Chinese national land-use classification standards – arable land (mainly rice paddies and vegetable fields), water bodies, orchards (fruit, tea and non-timber forests), conifer forest (mainly firs and pines), broadleaf forest (evergreen broadleaf forest), other forests, grassland, transportation corridors, built-up areas and unused land. Cutblocks, barren land suitable for afforestation, newly forested land and tree nurseries were classified as ―other forests‖ in order to eliminate possible classification errors associated with their identification. A combination of expert classification, supervised classification and stratified classification was applied to the images (ERDAS, 2007). An expert system was developed to use the TM band 109  4/band 3 ratio to classify vegetation, non-vegetation and water bodies. Stratified classification was used to eliminate the differences between natural features and to separate the natural feature masks. After extracting the vegetation information, the 6th province-wide forest inventory data and GPS geo-coordinates were used to develop training areas to classify the conifer, broadleaf and other forests. The transportation corridors, built-up areas and unused lands were determined by eye to develop training areas. After matching the histograms 1986, 1990 and 2000 using the 2003 corrected images, all the spectral characteristics were similar. Consequently, expert classification was used to classify water bodies, vegetation and non-vegetation. The 2003 classified template was used to classify the conifer, broadleaf, other forests, orchard, grassland and arable land, and supervised classification was used to classify the transportation corridors, built-up areas and unused land. After the classification, the 1986 Nanping Forest Inventory, and the 5th (1998) and 6th (2003) Fujian Provincial Forest Inventory data were used to assess the classification accuracy. As permanent plot data are considered to be classified information in China, we could only obtain 20% of the data. 386 stratified and randomly selected permanent plots from the 5th (1998) inventory and 297 plots from the 6th (2003) inventory, and 100 plots of each class from the permanent plots of the 1986 Nanping Forest Inventory were used for the accuracy analysis,. The accuracy was calculated by comparing the results from a digital classification to the known identity with ground true information (Treitz et al., 1992).  6.2.3 Landscape quantification Fragstats 3.3 software was used to calculate landscape metrics for the 1986, 1990, 2000, and 2003 classified images. Fragstats was used because: 1) it is free; 2) the software can directly import classified files from ArcGIS without further transformation, and 3) it computes a wide variety of metrics. Although Fragstats software can calculate more than 100 metrics (Griffith et al., 2000), many are highly correlated, reducing their potential usefulness (Apan et al., 2002). Riitters et al. (1995) examined the correlations among 55 different landscape metrics by factor analysis and identified only five independent factors. As many metrics are strongly correlated with one another, containing redundant information (Turner et al., 2001), factor analysis was used to identify the principal components accounting for as much of the variability in the data as possible. SAS (SAS system for Window, 9.1.3 SAS Institute Inc., Cary, NC, USA, 2005) was used for this analysis. Based on the objectives of the landscape quantification (to examine the fragmentation of forests and the dynamic of the land cover changes), factor analysis was used to examined the potential overlap of the metrics (for details see the results section). As Fragstats software requires 250 m × 250 m raster 16-bit signed integer grids containing all non-zero class values (Fragstats User Guidelines, 2007), the images from the four years were transferred into the required format and run under the Fragstats 3.3 program. The 250 m × 250 m grid creates cells of 6.25 ha, about the size of a stand sub-compartment or a typical agricultural unit in a small valley in the study area.  110  6.2.4 Identification of the impact of land-use change The social and economic development data of the Min Watershed from 1990, 2000, and 2003 were derived from the Fujian Statistic Yearbook (Fujian Provincial Bureau of Statistics, 1990, 2000, and 2003) to identify the impact of land-use change on the watershed. The data also include population growth over the periods and the government policy towards watershed development. The comparison of the landscape quantification data and statistical data reveals the dynamics of land-use change and the mechanisms of those changes.  6.3  RESULTS AND DISCUSSION  6.3.1 Accuracy assessment After the classification, the group truth data was selected to conduct accuracy analysis. Due to the limited resources available, we randomly selected 386 permanent plots from the 5th (1998) Fujian Forestry Continuous Inventory Database and 297 plots from the 6th (2003) Fujian Forestry Continuous Inventory Database, and 100 plots of each class from the permanent plots of the 1986 the Nanping Forest Inventory Database. The results are shown in Tables 6–1, 6–2, and 6–3. Overall Kappa values in 1986, 2000, and 2003 derived from the error matrix are 0.822, 0.833 and 0.856 respectively. The confusion matrixes of the three assessments are listed in Tables 6–4, 6–5 and 6–6. Table 6-1. 2003 Accuracy Assessment. (Overall Classification Accuracy = 87.9%, Overall Kappa Statistics = 0.865). Class Name Arable land Water body Built-up area Orchard Conifer Broadleaf Other forests Grassland Transportation Unused land Totals  Reference Totals 39 8 18 25 119 45 9 8 15 11 297  Classified Totals 42 7 18 24 114 46 11 10 16 9 297  Number Correct 35 7 16 22 105 40 8 7 13 8 261  Producers Accuracy 89.7 87.5 88.9 88.0 88.2 88.9 88.9 87.5 86.7 72.7  User Accuracy 83.3 100 88.9 91.7 92.1 87.0 72.7 70.0 81.3 88.9  111  Table 6-2. 2000 Accuracy Assessment. (Overall Classification Accuracy = 84.5%, Overall Kappa Statistics = 0.833). Class Name Arable land Water body Built-up area Orchard Conifer Broadleaf Other forests Grassland Transportation Unused land Totals  Reference Totals 45 12 17 42 132 78 28 15 9 8 386  Classified Totals 43 10 18 49 139 80 18 13 9 7 386  Number Correct 37 10 16 41 112 68 16 12 8 6 326  Producers Accuracy 82.2 83.3 94.1 97.6 84.9 87.2 57.1 80.0 88.9 75.0  User Accuracy 86.1 100 88.9 83.7 80.6 85.0 88.9 92.3 88.9 85.7  Table 6-3. 1986 Accuracy Assessment. (Overall Classification Accuracy = 84%, Overall Kappa Statistics = 0.822). Class Name Arable land Water body Built-up area Orchard Conifer Broadleaf Other forests Grassland Transportation Unused land Totals  Reference Totals 12 7 10 9 13 9 8 10 11 11 100  Classified Totals 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 100  Number Correct 9 7 9 7 10 9 8 8 9 8 84  Producers Accuracy 75.0 100 90.0 77.8 76.9 100 100 80.0 81.8 72.7  User Accuracy 90 70 90 70 100 90 80 80 90 80  112  Table 6-4. 2003 Confusion Matrix. Class Name Arable land Water body Built-up area Orchard Conifer Broadleaf Other forests Grassland Transportation Unused land  Arable land 35 0 0 1 5 1 0 0 0 0  Water body 0 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  Built-up area 0 1 16 0 0 0 0 0 1 0  Orchard 1 0 0 22 1 0 0 0 0 0  Conifer Broadleaf 3 0 0 0 105 4 1 1 0 0  0 0 0 2 4 40 0 0 0 0  Other forests 0 0 1 0 1 0 8 0 0 1  Grassland Transportation 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 7 0 1  0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 13 1  Unused land 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 8  113  Table 6-5. 2000 Confusion Matrix. Class Name Arable land Water body Built-up area Orchard Conifer Broadleaf Other forests Grassland Transportation Unused land  Arable land 37 0 0 0 4 0 0 1 0 1  Water body 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  Built-up area 1 1 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  Orchard 0 1 0 41 5 1 1 0 0 0  Conifer Broadleaf Other forests Grassland Transportation 6 0 0 0 112 9 10 2 0 0  0 0 0 0 11 68 1 0 0 0  0 0 0 0 0 0 16 0 1 1  0 0 0 1 0 0 0 12 0 0  0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 8 0  Unused land 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6  114  Table 6-6. 1986 Confusion Matrix. Class Name Arable land Water body Built-up area Orchard Conifer Broadleaf Other forests Grassland Transportation Unused land  Arable land 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0  Water body 0 7 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1  Built-up Orchard Conifer area 0 2 0 0 0 0 9 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0  Broadleaf Other forests Grassland Transportation 0 0 0 0 1 9 0 0 0 0  0 0 0 0 2 0 8 0 0 0  0 0 0 1 0 0 0 8 0 1  0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 9 0  Unused land 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 8  115  6.3.2 Landscape metrics selection and analysis Based on the objectives of the study, we selected 46 relevant metrics in both landscape and class levels. A factor analysis (using SAS 9.2 software) was used and a Scree test was conducted to select the metrics with eigenvalues greater than one (cutoff value) (Jackson, 1993). The result (Figure 6–1) indicated that only four metrics had eigenvalues greater than one. Factor Analysis also showed that some of the metrics are identical (perfect correlation), and most of them are highly related to one another.  Figure 6-1. Scree Plot for the 46 metrics in the Scree test. Based on the objectives of the research and a Varimax rotation of the factor analysis on the class level metrics, only the metrics listed in Table 6–7 contributed to the main factors.  116  Table 6-7. Fragstats metrics included in the analysis. Levels Landscape (10)  Class (14)  Abbreviation LPI NP MPS ED AWMSI AWMPFD MNND SDI IJI CI TCA PLAND NP PD LPI TE ED LSI AREA_MN SHAPE_MN PARA-MN CONTIG_MN PAFARC IJI  Metrics name Largest patch index Number of patches Mean patch size Edge density, Area-weighted mean shape index Area-weighted mean patch fractal dimension Mean nearest-neighbour distance Shannon‘s diversity index Interspersion and juxtaposition index, and Contagion index Total class area Percent of landscape Number of patches Patch density Large patch index Total edge Edge density Landscape shape index Mean patch area distribution Mean shape index distribution Mean perimeter-area ratio distribution Mean contiguity index distribution Perimeter-area fractal dimension Interspersion and juxtaposition index  Based on the landscape metrics analysis (Table 6-8, 6-9 and 6-11), below concludes the major development of the six land use types: 1) Built-up areas: there has been a rapid increase in built-up areas (cities, towns and villages). Existing cities and towns have greatly expanded and, at the same time, many new small towns and villages have been developed. The number of patches classified in this category has doubled since 1986. 2) Orchards: non-timber forests have increased significantly throughout the study period, with an annual increase of 7% in area, and a total increase of 129% over the 1986 value. Orchards are expanding from flat ground to mountain areas. 3) Conifer forest: conifer plantations are one of the fastest growing forms of land use in the watershed. The increase of LPI, TE and ED and decrease in patch number and density indicate that the size of individual plantations is increasing. 4) Broadleaf forest: 25% of the broadleaf forest in the watershed was lost between 1986 and 2000. An increase in the number of patches and a decrease in the large patch index indicate that the forest is becoming fragmented. Since 2000, the area of broadleaf forest has increased slightly in the watershed. 5) Grassland and unused land: the matrices for these two classes have the same trend, with a substantial decrease in area, patch number and density. This suggests that these forms of land use are disappearing in the watershed. The total numbers of patches of grassland 117  and unused land have declined from 39,644 and 44,174 to 9,468 and 8,809, respectively. 6) Road building: the results indicate that the transportation system has increased over almost all the indices.  118  Table 6-8. The general trend of each metric by land-use category. Class Metric TCA PLAND NP PD LPI TE ED LSI AREA-MN SHAPE_MN PARA-MN CONTIG_MN PAFARC IJI  Arable land D D I I D D D N D D N D N D  Water body I I I I D I I I D I D I I D  Built-up area I I I I I I I I D D I D I N  Orchard  Conifer  I I I I D I I I I I D N I D  I I D D I I I I I I D I I D  Broad leaf D D I I D N N I D D N N I D  Other forests* I I I I I I I I I N N N N D  Grassland  Road  D D D D D D D D D D I D N I  I I I I I I I I I I N N N D  Unused land D D D D D D D D D D I D D I  (D – decrease (>10%), I – increase (10%), and N – No significant change (<1%), – minor change in the general trend with fluctuation during the periods (change between 1–10%)) * Other forest, mainly new plantations, has increased dramatically in the period 1986–2000, but has since decreased as a result of the campaign to eliminate barren land.  119  At the scale of the landscape, the indices generally point to increasing fragmentation (Table 4–9). Natural landscapes such as broadleaf forest, grassland, and unused land are being lost and/or fragmented, whereas artificial landscapes (urban areas, conifer forest, reservoirs and transportation corridors) are becoming more dominant. Table 6-9. The general trend in each metric at the landscape level. Landscape Metric LPI NP MPS ED AWMSI AWMPFD MNND SDI IJI CI  1986 1.37 294039 20.6 31.4 7.19 1.13 645 1.99 83.6 16.9  1990 1.04 297846 20.4 32.0 5.89 1.12 645 1.98 83.1 16.7  2000 0.41 286262 21.2 31.8 6.56 1.14 661 1.91 80.2 19.3  2003 0.732 273168 22.2 31.9 7.26 1.14 655 1.83 75.2 22.7  6.3.3 Forest land change and associated policy changes in the last twenty years It is evident from Table 6–10 (the changes in the ten land cover types between 1986 and 2003) and Figure 6–2 (the percentage of land cover changes in the four detection periods) that the overall forested area has increased by over 468,000 ha. since 1986, but the area of natural forest has been depleted by about 427,000 ha. This represents a reduction of 25% in the total area of natural forest present in 1986. The area of plantations, mainly conifers, has increased from 1.29 million ha. to 2.18 million ha, increasing by 68%, and accounting for 55.1% of total the forest land (conifer, broadleaf and other forests) in the watershed. Several government policies appear to be contributing to land degradation in the watershed. More than 100 logging farms have been established since 1956 in the upper reaches of the watershed, and these are the main driver of the observed loss of 30,000 ha. of natural forest. The logging farms officially stopped logging natural forests after 1998, and since then have been turned into tree farms. There was a substantial increase in the area of conifer plantations and 456,198 ha. of new forest was established between 1986 and 1990 under the Greening Barren Land Program (1987–1993). In contrast, the area of broadleaf forest has decreased by about 171,000 ha. The Greening Barren Land Program resulted in large areas of grassland (wetland) being converted to forest. Since 1994, this change has been accelerated by the booming forest industry, which has created a strong demand for poplar and eucalyptus forests. The industry, consisting of paper mills, wood-based panel and fiberboard plants, has placed heavy pressure on the land (Chen, 2000a), and the transition matrix demonstrates that more and more natural forest, grassland and unused 120  land, and even arable land, is being converted to fast-growing, high-yield plantations. This presents a conundrum for a country where sustainable forest management is favoured but within a suitable economic and political context (c.f. Liu, 2007). After implementing the Nationwide Natural Forest Protection Program in 1998 and the Ecological Forest Compensation Program in 2000, natural forest (broadleaf forest) has been protected and the area of this forest type has been gradually increasing.  6.3.4 Detection of land-use and land-cover dynamic changes The watershed change matrices reflect the rapid development that has occurred over the last two decades in the Min watershed, with economic development taking precedence over any attempt to conserve natural resources or protect the environment. The land-cover transition matrix (Table 6–11) sheds light on the dynamic changes that are occurring: 1) One of the main policies to increase farmers‘ income in rural areas is to develop orchard and non-timber forests under the provincial government‘s Agricultural Multiple Management programs, associated with the Household Responsibility Systems introduced in 1982. Financial incentives have been available from the provincial government since 1984, and the area of orchards (including non-timber forests) in the Min River Watershed resulted in the conversion of many foothills forests to orchards. The area of land devoted to orchards has increased from 6% of the total watershed in 1986 to 13.3% in 2003. 2) The reduction in the area of grassland amounts to about 387,000 ha, or 85% of the area present in 1986, which largely consisted of wetlands along the Min River. Some of this loss can be attributed to the development