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An analysis of water pricing and consumption variations within the occupied West Bank McIntyre, Graham 2007

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An Analysis of Water Pricing and Consumption Variations within the occupied West Bank by  Graham Alexander McIntyre B.A., University of British Columbia, 2004  A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF  MASTER OF ARTS  in  The Faculty of Graduate Studies  (Geography)  THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA  December 2007  © Graham Alexander McIntyre, 2007  ABSTRACT International disputes over access to water resources can act as a catalyst for conflict or cooperation amongst nations. In the case of Israel and the occupied West Bank, water conflict further exacerbates preexisting political tension, and yet a peaceful and equitable solution between these countries could spark further negotiation. Within this context, the Palestinian Hydrology Group conducted a water questionnaire amongst Palestinian households in the occupied West Bank in 2001. The aim of the PHG’s survey was to investigate which water management system would be the most suitable in terms of equity, cost-recovery, and long-term development of the resource. Ultimately the water pricing system that was recommended was an increasing block-tariff system, which prioritizes the delivery of necessary amounts of water used for basic needs amongst all users before further allocating water to other uses. However, most of the work conducted by the PHG was qualitative and based entirely on descriptive statistics.  Analysis regarding the relationships between water pricing, water  consumption, and water needs, and how these relationships change over different scales, was not present in the final report. The purpose of this thesis to continue the research conducted by the PHG by analyzing the water questionnaire database as a means to further advise and direct water services within the occupied West Bank.  In order to discern relationships between  seasonal patterns of water pricing and consumption, an in-depth analysis of that data was conducted. In addition, perceived water needs were also examined. This analysis was performed at a variety of scales, including amongst districts, average monthly income levels, and connection/non-connection to a water network.  ii  Results indicate that some districts in the occupied West Bank are comparatively under-serviced. The economically poor district of Jenin seems to be in greatest need of stabilized and equitable water resources, followed by Hebron, Nablus and Ramallah1. It was also observed that those within lower income brackets bear a disproportionate share of pricing fluctuations and, not surprisingly, low consumption levels. Connection/nonconnection to a water network indicates that not only is consumption amongst nonconnected households significantly low, but also that the difference between perceived water needs and water consumption is much greater than amongst connected households. This thesis supports the PHG’s recommendation for an increasing block-tariff system, since regression analysis indicates inequitable distribution and pricing amongst districts and income levels.  1  Ramallah is a district that is relatively prosperous in comparison to some of the poorer northern districts.  iii  TABLE OF CONTENTS Abstract ..............................................................................................................................................i Table of Contents..............................................................................................................................iv List of Tables .....................................................................................................................................v List of Figures ...................................................................................................................................vi Acknowledgments............................................................................................................................vii Dedication .......................................................................................................................................viii CHAPTER 1 – Introduction...............................................................................................................1 1.1 Thesis objectives .........................................................................................................2 CHAPTER 2 – A brief description of the West Bank......................................................................13 CHAPTER 3 – An overview of water resources in the West Bank ...................................................3 3.1 The Mountain Aquifer.................................................................................................3 3.2 Israeli water resources .................................................................................................6 3.3 Water resources in the West Bank...............................................................................7 CHAPTER 4 – The Data and Methodology.....................................................................................18 4.1 The PHG Survey, 2001/2002 ......................................................................................1 4.2 Testing for normality.................................................................................................27 4.3 Simple Linear Regression Methodology .....................................................................1 CHAPTER 5 – Variations in summer and winter pricing................................................................24 6.1 Variations at the district level....................................................................................24 6.2 Variations amongst income levels.............................................................................27 CHAPTER 6 – Variations in summer and winter consumption ......................................................29 7.1 Variations at the district level....................................................................................29 7.2 Variations amongst income levels.............................................................................32 7.3 Variations between connected/unconnected households...........................................34 CHAPTER 7 – Variations between water need and consumption ...................................................35 8.1 Variations at the district level....................................................................................35 8.2 Variations amongst income levels.............................................................................38 8.3 Variations between connected/unconnected households...........................................39 CHAPTER 8 – Discussion of results ...............................................................................................41 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.4 8.5  From the PHG Survey ...............................................................................................41 At the district level ....................................................................................................41 Amongst income levels .............................................................................................43 Between connected/unconnected households ...........................................................45 Recommendations and further research ....................................................................45  CHAPTER 9 – Conclusion ..............................................................................................................47 Bibliography ....................................................................................................................................51 Appendix A - Tables ........................................................................................................................53 Appendix B - Figures.......................................................................................................................56 Appendix C - Water Questionnaire..................................................................................................56  iv  LIST OF TABLES Table 2.1 Table 2.2 Table 2.3 Table 2.4 Table 2.5 Table 4.1  Estimated Recharge Rates of the West Bank Aquifers...............................5 Oslo II Allocations......................................................................................5 Water Consumption Data by Sector, 1995 .................................................7 Population of the West Bank not connected to running water in 2005 ......8 Mekorot supply to the West Bank (mcm/year).........................................11 Water usage and water pricing between connected and unconnected areas ....................................................................................19  APPENDIX A Table 1 Table 2 Table 3  Socioeconomic comparison between connected and non-connected households................................................................................................54 Water habits comparison between connected and non-connected households................................................................................................54 Bivariate correlations amongst water pricing, consumption, and needs variables amongst all connected households in the West Bank...............55  v  LIST OF FIGURES Figure 2.1 Figure 2.2 Figure 2.3 Figure 3.1 Figure 3.2 Figure 3.3 Figure 3.4 Figure 3.5 Figure 4.1 Figure 6.1 Figure 6.2 Figure 6.3 Figure 6.4 Figure 7.1 Figure 7.2 Figure 7.3 Figure 7.4 Figure 7.5 Figure 8.1 Figure 8.2 Figure 8.3 Figure 8.4 Figure 8.5 Figure 9.1 Figure 9.2  Population Distribution in the West Bank...............................................13 Distribution of Land Use in the West Bank ............................................15 Climatic Classification of the West Bank ...............................................16 The Northern, Western, and Eastern Aquifers ..........................................4 Water Use in Israel, 1958-2001.................................................................6 Political Boundaries of the West Bank......................................................9 Israeli and Palestinian well depths in northwest Palestine ......................10 Water Sources (carriers and wells) within the West Bank ......................12 Map of distributed questionnaires within the West Bank districts..........18 Seasonal variations in water pricing amongst connected households at the district level...................................................................................25 Spatial variations in water pricing amongst connected households in the West Bank.....................................................................................26 Variations in seasonal water pricing by average monthly income ..........27 Water pricing seasonality: Regression b-values versus monthly income ......................................................................................28 Seasonal variations in water consumption amongst connected households at the district level.................................................................30 Spatial variations in water consumption amongst connected households in the West Bank.................................................31 Variations in seasonal water consumption by average monthly income.32 Water consumption seasonality: Regression b-values versus monthly income ......................................................................................33 Variations in seasonal water consumption by connection to a water network..........................................................................................34 Water needs versus water consumption by district .................................36 Variations in water needs versus water consumption..............................37 Water needs versus water consumption by average monthly income.....38 Water needs versus water consumption: Regression b-values versus monthly income ...........................................................................39 Water needs versus water consumption by connection to a water network..........................................................................................40 Average b-value variations by district within the West Bank.................41 Variations in b-values amongst average monthly income levels ............44  APPENDIX B Figure 1 Figure 2 Figure 3 Figure 4 Figure 5 Figure 6 Figure 7  Monthly consumption of water (in cubic meters) in the winter ..............57 Monthly consumption of water (in cubic meters) in the summer ...........57 Water cost and usage in the connected areas...........................................58 Water cost and usage in the non-connected areas ...................................58 Willingness to pay in the connected areas...............................................59 Willingness to pay in the non-connected areas .......................................59 Water use versus water needs in the non-connected areas ......................60  vi  ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I wish to offer my sincerest gratitude to both Dr. Abed Tamimi and the Palestinian Hydrology Group for conducting the original water questionnaire, allowing me access to research materials, and providing me with ongoing assistance. I owe special thanks to Dr. Marwan Hassan, Dr. Brian Klinkenberg, Dr. Abdullah Shaban, and Dr. Jason Su, all of whom provided direction, insight and valuable time for this project. Thank you to Dr. Michael Buzzelli, whose help and support provided for me entrance into the graduate program. Lastly, thank you to Brie, my family and my friends, all of whom have endured me these last few years.  vii  DEDICATION  To the memories of Alfred Richardson and Ray McIntyre  viii  Chapter 1 – Introduction In 2003, the United Nations published their first annual World Water Development Report, in which the world water crisis was stated as startlingly real. It was estimated that worldwide, over 1 billion people lack adequate supplies of freshwater for consumptive use2. Furthermore, those that have inadequate access to water often also face dwindling freshwater supplies that are consumed faster than they are replenished. In response to this crisis, a pessimistic and prevalent worldview is that wars over water will become inevitable as populations grow and supplies shrink. However, an optimistic view heralds freshwater as a conduit for cooperation, as parties must work together in order to help best preserve endangered international waters. One of the most conflicted places in the world experiencing this debate over conflict and cooperation is the water-poor Middle East. Since the 1970s, groundwater abstractions from the Mountain Aquifer, which underlies Israel and the occupied West Bank, have exceeded the sustainable annual yield of freshwater3. This unsustainable consumption has proved extremely problematic, as recent years have witnessed considerable droughts that have necessitated more stringent management of water resources. As a result, there has been an increasing emphasis on both furthering the development of water resources and improving contemporary water infrastructure, such as exploring and exploiting new sources of water, isolating and fixing leaky pipelines, acquiring freshwater from outside sources, investing in desalinization, and formulating appropriate water policy that accounts for sustainability and cost recovery.  2 3  United Nations, 2003: 10. Lowi, 1993: 118.  1  It is within this context that the Palestinian Hydrology Group conducted a water questionnaire within the occupied West Bank in 2001 and 20024. The aim of this study was to ascertain the opinions and beliefs of the Palestinian people regarding their access (or lack thereof) to freshwater, and to use this information to advise and formulate water policy. The PHG focused on summary and descriptive statistics within their final report, and recommended the adoption of an increasing block tariff system as the most appropriate water pricing scheme for the occupied West Bank. However, the PHG did not try to create a predictive model for water pricing and water consumption based on economic and spatial variations.  In this thesis I will attempt to discern important  variations amongst districts and income levels by extending the research conducted by the PHG by conducting a series of simple linear regression plots amongst variables related to water needs, pricing, and consumption.  The variables of pricing and  consumption are focused on since they will likely indicate the greatest fluctuations in water service at a variety of scales. By isolating particular districts, income levels, and groups of people within the West Bank that are susceptible to water pricing and consumption fluctuations, I aim to provide a guide for water managers within Palestine that directs water resources to fulfill the basic needs of those who are under-serviced. 1.1 – Objectives My objectives in this thesis are the following: To analyze relationships of seasonal water pricing and consumption within the West Bank, and how these relationships vary over space and with regards to differing economic status.  4  The water questionnaire from the PHG has been included as Appendix C.  2  To identify the most under-serviced districts and income brackets within the West Bank based on trends amongst linear regression slope lines. To draw conclusions from this statistical analysis as a means of advising water policy guidelines within the occupied West Bank.  3  Chapter 2 – A brief description of the West Bank The occupied West Bank is approximately 5500 square kilometers, and is comprised of 11 districts (see Figure 2.1). Population estimates for the West Bank are highly contentious, and can range from 1.4 million to 2.5 million people5. In 2005, the United Nations Relief and Works Agency estimated the West Bank population to be 1.8 Figure 2.1 – Districts in the occupied West Bank  5  The Bar-Ilan University issued a study in 2005 that criticized the methodology of the Palestinian Bureau of Statistics, and estimated the population of the West Bank to be 1.4 million. This report can be found at http://www.biu.ac.il/Besa/MSPS65.pdf. The Palestinian Bureau of Statistics maintains that the population of the West Bank is approximately 2.5 million. See PCBS website for these statistics, at www.pcbs.gov.ps.  4  million people6. Figure 2.2 (below) shows the estimated population distribution within the West Bank. A majority of Palestinians live along the Western border closer to Israel within a strip that stretches from northern Ramallah down to southern Hebron. However, significant population centers are also found in the northern capital cities of Nablus, Tulkarem, Jenin and Qalqilya. Approximately 30% of the Palestinian population are refugees7. Refugee camps appear in high concentrations on the outskirts of major urban centers, most notably East Jerusalem, Nablus and Jenin8. Figure 2.2 – Population Distribution in the West Bank  Source: The Washington Institute, 2003.  6  UNRWA, 2007. Ibid. 8 Ibid. 7  5  On a national scale, the economy of the occupied West Bank has been declining since the second Intifada. Unemployment skyrocketed to as high as 30%, and as a result, approximately 45% of the populace lives below the poverty line9. Agricultural and industrial trade is highly dependent on Israel, which accounts for 85% of total Palestinian imports and exports10. Economic hardship in recent years has further polarized the socioeconomic differences between urban and rural populations in the occupied West Bank. There exist notable differences in standard-of-living between the agricultural ‘north’ and the more urbanized, service-based ‘south’ within the West Bank.  The  northern districts of Jericho, Tulkarem, Qalqilya and Jenin all exhibit a dependence on agriculture, high rural populations, relatively small urban populations (<50%), and numerous refugee camps.  The economic importance of water for agriculture is  significantly high in these regions, due to economic reliance on permanent crop production (olives, citrus, etc.) and irrigated land for grain production. More urbanized districts, such as East Jerusalem, Bethlehem, and to some extent Nablus and Hebron, exhibit much higher urban populations and advanced service industries. The demand for water in these urban environments is primarily for domestic use. Current land use trends within the West Bank are displayed in Figure 2.3.  9  Roberts, 1998. Ibid.  10  6  Figure 2.3 – Distribution of Land Use in the West Bank  Source: LRCJ, 2007.  There is also significant climatic variation amongst districts in the West Bank. A map displaying the relevant climatic classifications has been included as Figure 2.4.  7  Figure 2.4– Climatic Classification of the West Bank  Source: LRCJ, 2007.  One can immediately notice the correlation between the humid areas in the above figure with areas of high agricultural land use from Figure 2.2; most of the Palestinian agriculture occurs in the climatic zones of subhumid to semi-arid. Since climate can vary from such extremes as humid to extremely arid, some districts within the West Bank are in a situation of comparatively greater water need. For example, significant portions of 8  southern Hebron, southwestern Bethlehem, and a majority of Jericho are located in areas of relatively high aridity; therefore one can expect that water needs, consumption, and to some extent pricing will fluctuate more so than districts in more humid environments.  9  Chapter 3 – An overview of water resources in the West Bank The most important and contentious groundwater resource shared by the Israelis and the Palestinians is the Mountain Aquifer. Israel relies on water recharged within the Mountain Aquifer for between one-quarter and one-third of its total water consumption11. Palestinians living in the West Bank, with the exception of those serviced by the Israeli water carrier, are entirely dependent on the Mountain Aquifer. Given the importance of this aquifer, it is necessary to briefly summarize the boundaries, quantities and allocations from this aquifer before discussing water resources within Israel and The occupied West Bank. 3.1 - The Mountain Aquifer The Mountain Aquifer extends for approximately 150 km along a north-south axis, and lies partially within both Israel and the occupied West Bank. It is divided further along the axes of major anticlines into three major sub-aquifers, all of which can be seen in Figure 3.1: the Eastern, the Western, and the North-Eastern (or Northern) Aquifers. Geologically these aquifers are composed primarily of karst and limestone material, and possess both high rates of water conductivity as well as relatively high storage capacity. The soil that overlays the Western Aquifer is mostly terra rossa, although some outcroppings of porous rock occur in the central mountain belt of the occupied West Bank. Approximately 60% of the Western Aquifer lies in Israeli territory; the remaining portion, and the entirety of the Eastern and North-Eastern Aquifers, lies within occupied Palestinian territory.  11 12  Feitelson and Haddad, 2001: 43. Fisher and Huber-Lee, 2005: 125.  10  The Mountain Aquifer has a sustainable yield that is estimated anywhere between 590 to 690 million cubic meters of water per year12. Groundwater is replenished entirely within Palestinian territory along the central mountain range, through precipitation and subsequent infiltration on fractured and porous limestone13. However, this precipitation “varies substantially between years”14, and a substantial drought can cause extreme water shortages, which were observed in Israel and the occupied West Bank in the mid 1980s. Figure 3.1 – The Northern, Western, and Eastern Aquifers  Source: UNEP/DEWA/GRID-Europe, 2002. Used with permission.  13 14  Feitelson and Haddad, 2001: 44. Ibid, 45.  11  Table 3.1 – Estimated Recharge Rates of the West Bank Aquifers Aquifer Northeastern Eastern Western Total  Reported Yield (mcm/year) 140-200 100-130 350-360 590-690  Total recharge per Article 40 of Oslo Agreement (mcm/year) 145 172 362 679  Created using data from Fisher and Huber-Lee, 2005: 125.  Table 3.2 – Oslo II Allocations  Unsustainable abstractions from the Mountain Aquifer have not only continued to present day, but have been codified into the Oslo II Accords of 1995. Total allocations to both the Israelis and the Palestinians total over 600 mcm/year (see Table 2.2). While this allocation is less than the average total reported yield according to Fisher and Huber (see Table 2.1), these figures are debatable and subject to uncertainty. Estimations from Beaumont (2000) place the total reported yield between all three subaquifers at 585 mcm/year15, which is significantly below the Oslo II estimations16. Abstractions from the Western Aquifer from Israel alone in the drought year of 1999 totaled 572 mcm, approximately 158% of its replenishment rate17. Since Israel extracts approximately 500 mcm/yr of water from West Bank aquifers, which dominantly lie and are entirely recharged within occupied territory, it is important to understand that Israel views their continued occupation as necessary for national water security. The groundwater under the West Bank has constituted an Israeli “reason for continuing to hold strategic territory”, which has been evident at peace negotiations from the last fifteen years18.  15 16  Beaumont, 2000: 25. Except in the case of the Eastern Aquifer, which was pledged to be further developed in 1995.  12  3.2 - Israeli water resources Israeli water demands are of key importance when discussing water resources in the West Bank. Israel has been allocated nearly 500 mcm/yr from West Bank aquifers; however there is evidence that, in some years, Israel has extracted as much as 550 mcm/yr19. Figure 3.2 – Water use in Israel from 1958-2001  Source: Feitelson, 2005: 417.  Israel’s water consumption in recent years consistently hovers around 2 billion cubic meters per year.  Prior to 1986, when the first major drought in Israel occurred, a  significant proportion of the increase in water use was due to agricultural use. Israel, in addition to many other countries in the water-poor Middle East, developed a “rural and water intensive way of life” with a large emphasis on food self-sufficiency20. After the occupation of the West Bank after 1967, the issue of land control only increased in importance, for continued abstractions from West Bank aquifers were viewed as necessary to support a growing industries and populations. After the droughts of the mid17  SUSMAQ, 2006: 1. Allan, 2001: 40. 19 Feitelson and Haddad, 2001: 54. 18  13  1980s, Israel increased the price of its agricultural water despite a powerful rent-seeking agricultural lobby. Despite this price increase, Israel’s agriculture sector has witnessed increasing levels of productivity in addition to increased water efficiency21. It seems reasonable to suggest that the amount of irrigated water for agriculture in Israel will peak at 1.6 billion cubic meters/year22. In addition, Israel has witnessed a steady economic shift from an agricultural economy in the 1950s to an industry and service dominated economy in the present day.  It is now domestic consumption within Israel that  consistently rises in proportion to a growing population. It is interesting to note in Figure 3.2 the exceptionally low consumption levels in some years. For example, in 1991, less than 1500 mcm was consumed by Israelis, indicating that it is possible for Israel to use less water and yet still suitably satisfy the needs of its population. 2.3 - Water resources in the West Bank Considering Israel’s water usage, both past and contemporary, the water demands of the West Bank are comparatively small. Table 3.3 shows the amount of water consumed by each district (or conglomeration of districts) in the West Bank in 1995: Table 3.3 – Water Consumption Data by Sector, 1995 (includes unaccounted-for water) (mcm) District  Municipal and industrial  Jenin Tulkarem and Qalqilya Nablus, Tubas and Salfit Ramallah Jericho East Jerusalem Bethlehem Hebron Totals Total Consumption = 133.9 mcm  3.9 7.3 8.8 6.7 1.4 8.1 4.3 6.2 46.7  Created using data from Fisher and Huber-Lee, 2005: 127.  20  Allan, 2001: 39. Allan, 2001: 136. 22 Ibid, 188. 21  14  Livestock and irrigated agriculture 5.5 14.9 25.0 2.1 35.3 0.6 1.4 2.4 87.2  In the above figure and following calculations, values for 1995 are used because of the difficulty of accessing newer data given the continued occupation of the West Bank. Based on 1995 levels, the total water consumption of 133.9 million cubic meters for domestic, agricultural and industrial purposes is approximately 15 times smaller the consumption for the same year in Israel, where total consumption fell just shy of 2 billion cubic meters (see Figure 3.2). On a calculated per-capita basis, the average Israeli consumed 340 cubic meters of water per month in 1995, compared to approximately between 54 and 96 cubic meters per month for Palestinians in the occupied West Bank in the same year23. The United Nations Environment Programme estimates that relatively current (2002) Palestinian per-capita water consumption is 70 cubic meters/month24. With respect to water service, there is an important distinction to be made amongst households in the West Bank. Specifically, there are a large number of villages in the occupied West Bank that are not connected to a water network of any kind. One of the more liberal estimates places this percentage of non-connected Palestinians at around 19%25. More recent data from the Palestinian Water Authority estimates this proportion to be approximately 10%, as shown in Table 3.4:  23  The range of values for per capita Palestinian water consumption exists since population estimations in the West Bank are highly contentious. 24 UNEP, 2007. 25 Feitelson and Haddad, 2001: 114.  15  Table 3.4 – Population of the West Bank not connected to running water in 2005*  Source: B’Tselem, 2007. Used with permission.  When a community is not-connected to a running water network, it must therefore be served through a series of wells, the utilization of rainwater cisterns or local springs, receiving water shipped via tanker, or any combination of these methods. For example, in the districts of Tulkarem and Qalqilya (see below), hundreds of shallow wells have been built to utilize water from the Western Aquifer26. Likewise, many wells have been drilled into the Eastern Aquifer to service outlying unconnected Palestinian villages27 in the Bethlehem-Hebron regions28.  26 27  Feitelson and Haddad, 2001: 50 These are Palestinians that are classified as “residents in unconnected communities” in Table 2.4.  16  Since the 1970s and 80s, the Western and Northeastern aquifers have been consistently overpumped by Israel, causing not only increases in groundwater salinity but also a reduced groundwater table that strains pumping from adjacent shallow Palestinian wells29. Figure 3.4 highlights the presence of deep Israeli wells located adjacent to Palestinian territory outside the districts of Tulkarem, Qalqilya and Salfit. Estimates of partially saline groundwater extracted from shallow Palestinian wells in the years 1998/99 from the below figure total 27 mcm/year. Figure 3.3 – Israeli and Palestinian well depths in northwest Palestine  Source: Attili, 2005:10.  28 29  Feitelson and Haddad, 2001: 51. Feitelson and Haddad, 2001: 50.  17  With regards to households that are connected to a water network, there are three main domestic water suppliers in the West Bank: Mekorot (the Israeli water carrier), the Municipality of Jerusalem, and a variety of municipal village councils and water utilities30. Mekorot supplies 30 mcm/yr to Palestinians in the West Bank, and yet some districts, such as Tulkarem, Qalqilya, and Hebron (see Fig 2.3), have no Mekorot coverage: Table 3.5 – Mekorot Supply to the West Bank (mcm/year) District Jenin Tulkarem and Qalilya Nablus, Tubas and Salfit Ramallah Jericho East Jerusalem Bethlehem Hebron  Water Supply 3.1 0 3.0 6.5 4.5 5.0 8.4 0  Table created using data from Fisher and Huber-Lee, 2005: 130.  Figure 3.5 shows the distribution of water carriers within the West Bank, both those of Palestinian and Israeli origin. From Ramallah to Hebron, there exists a relatively robust system of both Palestinian and Israeli water carriers, confirming the notion that those in urban areas are comparatively well serviced with a consistent year-round supply of water. The gaps in consistent carrier supply occur consistently amongst smaller villages and refugee camps, primarily in the North. One also notices that with the exception of a substantial strip in western Bethlehem, a majority of Palestinian wells are found in the northern West Bank districts.  30  Feitelson and Haddad, 2001: 110  18  Figure 3.5 – Water Sources (carriers and wells) within the West Bank  Source: UNEP/DEWA/GRID-Europe, 2002. Used with permission.  For Palestinians living in the West Bank, whether connected or not-connected, water is a scarce and expensive resource.  Palestinians have been given access to a  disproportionately small percentage of available groundwater that recharges exclusively in occupied territory.  19  Chapter 4 – The Data and Methodology 4.1 – The PHG Survey, 2001/2002 In 2001 and 2002, the Palestinian Hydrology Group, a Palestinian non-profit, nongovernmental organization, conducted a water questionnaire amongst ten of the eleven districts in the occupied West Bank. The aim of this survey was to help develop a suitable water pricing scheme that could be applied to all Palestinians, which would ensure sustainability of the resources, good water governance, and some form of cost recovery. Questionnaires were distributed amongst districts as seen in Figure 4.1: Figure 4.1 – Map of distributed questionnaires within the West Bank districts  Source: PHG Final Report, 2000: 37. Used with permission.  20  An additional benefit to this survey was its exploration of current Palestinian water practices, water usage and pricing policies. The final report included descriptive statistics that were conducted on the results of 1003 questionnaires. Through the analysis and final report, significant attention was devoted to distinguishing the difference between connected and unconnected households. The questionnaire that was used by the PHG included over 100 different questions for each respondent. The respondent was asked about their water needs, water costs, and water use, and how these might vary seasonally. In addition, the respondent was asked questions to provide socioeconomic background, including their number of years of education, average monthly income, profession, and family size. Opinions regarding water resources and the allocation of water were also recorded, as the PHG sought to create a system that was as synonymous as possible with what average Palestinians wanted. Questions regarding sustainability of the resource were also posed, as a means of gauging the efficacy of any future cost recovery plans. Finally, the PHG also asked questions regarding water habits, as a means of identifying daily habits that may unnecessarily waste water. After entering the results of these surveys, the PHG attacked their research question chiefly through the use of descriptive statistics as a means to analyze the database. However, no further analysis was done to create a model of where increased water services and infrastructure are proportionally needed. The research presented in the following three chapters attempts to explore the relationships between and amongst water consumption and pricing at a variety of different scales.  21  4.2 – Testing for Normality In order to get a better sense of the dataset’s structure, tests for normality were performed using XLStat v.2007.7 for the following five (5) variables amongst the survey results for all connected households: • • • • •  Average monthly water bill in the summertime Average monthly water bill in the winter time Average monthly consumption in cubic meters, summer Average monthly consumption in cubic meters, winter Perceived number of cubic meters needed per month  Each of these variables was subjected to all four (4) of the following normality tests: • • • •  The Shapiro-Wilk test The Anderson-Darling test The Lilliefors test The Jarque-Bera test  In each of these instances, normality was tested with a significance level of α = 0.05. It was determined that for all twenty (20) normality tests that were conducted, none of the variables exhibited a p-value that was greater than 0.0001.  Therefore, it can be  concluded with significant certainty that none of the variables considered in the proceeding chapters follows a normal distribution.  However, since the following  statistical analysis relies primarily on simple linear regression as a means to further explore the database, there exists no imperative for normality within the database.  4.3 – Simple Linear Regression Methodology In the following three chapters, I will examine the scale-dependent variations in the PHG database as a method of providing a thorough analysis of spatial and economic variations of water pricing and consumption.  By examining the relations amongst  variables detailing water pricing, water consumption, and perceived water needs, I hope  22  to gain some understanding of which districts and income levels are proportionally underserved. Since none of the variables are statistically normal, a descriptive approach was taken in this analysis. Using a series of scatterplots with simple linear regression lines, relations among the variables can be visualized and general conclusions drawn as to the scale-dependent variations in water service. The decision to pursue linear regression as a meaningful method to further explore the data was supported by statistically significant  bivariate correlations between water pricing and consumption variables  amongst the connected households in the West Bank (see Appendix A, Table 3). Variations in b-values (linear regression slope lines) between subsets of districts, income levels, and water connection/non-connection could help illuminate spatial and economic variations that may be present within the database, and consequently would prove useful in determining which groups or spatial areas are particularly inadequately serviced. In each of the following scatterplot matrices, the y-axis is plotted purposefully as the axis which indicates the greater or more urgent water need. Therefore, higher bvalues in each of the following linear regressions indicates a greater seasonal or consumptive disparity, whereas lower b-values present a situation that is much less prohibitive. In the pricing matrices, for example, the y-axis is indicative of the average water bill (NIS) in the summer months, while the x-axis represents the average water bill (NIS) in the winter. Here, higher b-values would indicate a greater seasonal variation in water pricing rates, which would in turn exacerbate the need for stable water pricing structures for those income levels and districts with abnormally high b-values. On all of the linear regression plots, a baseline slope of b=1 has been plotted as a dotted line; this line represents a perfect correlation between the variables comprising the y-axis and the  23  x-axis. The inclusion of this line is to provide a comparative means with which to gauge the visual significance of the b-value for each regression plot. Each of the scatterplot matrices in Chapters 6, 7, 8 were created using SPSS v11.0, and the maps present in these chapters were created using ESRI’s ArcMap v9.1. Bar and line graphs were created using Microsoft Excel 2003. Within each series of plots it was necessary to remove outliers that would impact negatively on the formulation of an appropriate linear regression equation. Outliers were identified and removed based on the following three criteria: 1) There was insufficient or incomplete data for an entry. 2) There were 0-values present for entries where one would not expect to find 0values, such as for summertime/winter-time consumption entries. 3) There was an excessive inflation for either the y-axis or x-axis value which was not mirrored in the value for the x-axis or y-axis respectively. If one of the values was three times greater or more than its counterpart, then it was eliminated from further analysis. The removal of such points was necessary in providing the best-fit line that would be representative of the majority of data values within each plot.  24  Chapter 5 – Variations in summer and winter pricing Exploratory linear regression was conducted amongst all connected households to see if significant variations exist in water pricing either at the district level, or amongst average monthly income levels. Only connected households are considered for this analysis; the data for water pricing amongst non-connected households was not sufficient for a meaningful regression analysis to be performed.  5.1 - Variations in summer and winter pricing at the district level The scatterplot matrix exhibiting the seasonality of water pricing at the district level is displayed as Figure 5.1.  When viewing this series of plots, it is initially  interesting to note that all of the b-value slope lines are above 1, indicating that in all districts, there is a significantly higher price for water in the summer as compared to the winter. However, there are important fluctuations in these slope lines, from the lowest value in Tulkarem of 1.06 to the highest value of 1.34 in Jenin. Most of the b-values for pricing seem particularly high, with 6 out of 9 districts displaying a b-value that is greater than 1.2. It can be concluded that in these districts, water prices are generally at least 20% higher in the summer than they are in the winter. In at least three districts (Jericho, Tulkarem, and Jenin), water prices can fluctuate by as much as 25% between the summer and winter. One can surmise that the results of such fluctuation are particularly difficult for those in low income brackets, or those that depend upon agriculture for their livelihood.  25  Figure 5.1 – Seasonal variation in water pricing amongst connected households at the district level  In the above figure, black squares represent points that were used for linear regression, whereas grey triangles represent outliers that were removed from further analysis. The dark line represents the regression line, and the dashed grey line represents a baseline value of b=1 for visual comparison. In all of the above cases, the calculated p-value was less than 0.001, which indicates a statistically significant relationship between the two variables. This key is relevant for all other regression matrices in this chapter.  To investigate the presence or absence of a spatial pattern of water pricing patterns at the district level, the above b-values were mapped by district in Figure 5.2. From this mapping, there seems to be an evident spatial trend that in general, water prices  26  seem to fluctuate most substantially in the north and in the east along the Jordan River. It is therefore evident that a stable pricing system would be most beneficial in these districts. Figure 5.2 – Spatial variation in pricing amongst connected households in the West Bank  In the above diagram, pricing values are sorted into three categories, and I have attempted to have only three districts contained within each pricing tier. Grouping is based upon 1) the spread of b-values and 2) having a suitable number of districts contained within each tier.  27  It also is important to note that some of the most well-connected regions, notably Jerusalem, Ramallah, and Bethlehem, are grouped together with similar b-values. In the districts of Jenin and Tulkarem particularly, both of which prominently feature large masses of land dedicated to agriculture, highly fluctuating prices could be problematic. 5.2 - Variations in summer and winter pricing amongst income levels The seasonality of water pricing fluctuations amongst connected household was also plotted with respect to varying levels of average monthly income, the results of which are displayed in Figure 5.3. There is a trend that exists from low-income Figure 5.3 –Variations in seasonal water pricing by average monthly income  In the above figure, black squares represent points that were used for linear regression, whereas grey triangles represent outliers that were removed from further analysis. The dark line represents the regression line, and the dashed grey line represents a baseline value of b=1 for visual comparison. . In all of the above cases, the calculated p-value was less than 0.001, which indicates a statistically significant relationship between the two variables.  28  households to high-income households, in which the b-values generally seem to decrease inversely proportional to income. A relatively high b-value of 1.32 is exhibited for the lowest average monthly income level (0-1200 NIS), whereas in the higher income levels, such as 4400-5600 NIS and 5600+ NIS, b-values of 1.08 and 1.13 respectively are displayed. This slight trend is more visible in Figure 5.4, in which b-values are plotted against monthly income. Figure 5.4 –Water pricing seasonality: Regression b-values versus monthly income  The downward trend in b-values as income levels increase is clear. Those that are within the lower income brackets are faced with a disproportionate number of water pricing spikes; in short, those that are less wealthy can expect to pay a relatively higher amount for water in the summer than the winter. The magnitude of these spikes seems to decrease with higher income, suggesting that those who are wealthier are not faced with seasonal water pricing fluctuations to the same extent as those with lower monthly incomes.  29  Chapter 6 – Variations in summer and winter consumption The same process of simple linear regression was conducted amongst all households irrespective of connection/non-connection to see if significant variations exist in water consumption. This analysis was repeated three times, considering the district level, variations in average monthly income, and connection/non-connection to a water network. 6.1 - Variations at the district level Figure 6.1 displays the results of the scatterplot matrix that plots variations in summer and winter consumption amongst all households in the West bank. As with the plots in Chapter 5, summer consumption is plotted as the y-axis, with winter consumption on the x-axis. Therefore, higher b-values indicate higher degrees of seasonal variation in consumption. However, it should be noted that high degrees of seasonal consumption do not necessarily indicate a greater water need; it merely suggests that there are greater spikes of seasonal water consumption that may necessitate increased water service in affected areas. Values within this matrix vary to roughly the same extent as the districtlevel variation seen in Figure 5.1. However, the lowest b-value within this analysis is a 0.92 in Bethlehem, which indicates that there is less consumption in the summer time than in the winter. However, in viewing Bethlehem’s plot in Figure 6.1, the regression line is remarkably close to b=1. At the other extreme are b-values for Ramallah and Jenin, 1.28 and 1.26 respectively, which suggests that residents in these districts consume approximately 25% more water in the summer than the winter.  Jenin and less  significantly Ramallah seem to not only experience high summertime consumption, but  30  also as seen in Figure 5.1, these two districts also face substantial seasonal pricing increases during this time as well. Figure 7.1 – Seasonal variation in water consumption amongst all households at the district level  In the above figure, black squares represent points that were used for linear regression, whereas grey triangles represent outliers that were removed from further analysis. The dark line represents the regression line, and the dashed grey line represents a baseline value of b=1 for visual comparison. This key is relevant for all other regression matrices in this chapter. In all of the above cases, the calculated p-value was less than 0.001, which indicates a statistically significant relationship between the two variables.  31  The remaining six districts each display a b-value within the range of 1.12 to 1.19, which seems to indicate an expected increase in consumption given the climatic differences between summer and winter in the West Bank. Figure 7.2 displays the spatial variation in the above b-values. Figure 7.2 – Spatial variation in water consumption amongst all households at the district level  In the above diagram, pricing values are sorted into three categories, and I have attempted to have only three districts contained within each pricing tier. Grouping is based upon 1) the spread of b-values and 2) having a suitable number of districts contained within each tier.  The spatial patterns in the above map are interesting when compared to the climatic classifications shown in Figure 2.4. Based on this comparison, one would expect high  32  variations in seasonal consumption to occur in the arid to extremely arid regions; therefore, high b-values are to be expected in such regions such as Jericho and Hebron. High b-values in Ramallah are surprising, given its position as a well-connected, relatively densely populated district with moderate agriculture and a generally subhumid climate.  One would also expect higher results for those districts that are highly  dependent on agriculture, yet with the exception of Jenin, most of the values are midrange.  These results are further illuminated when one considers variations in average  monthly income as well. 6.2 - Variations amongst income levels A similar scatterplot was conducted by average monthly income amongst all households in the West Bank in order to explore how consumption varies seasonally based on monthly income. The results of this matrix are presented in Figure 6.3. Figure 6.3 –Variations in seasonal water consumption by average monthly income  33  The very low values one finds for the lowest income bracket are especially noteworthy: a b-value of 0.82 indicates sizably lower consumption in the summer than the winter by about 20%. When comparing the above plots to the results of Figure 5.3, it seems that the price of water is inversely related to the volume of water consumed. The top four income levels display values opposite to the lower range; here consumption instead increases by approximately 20%. In Figure 6.4, the relationship between b-values and income are plotted. Figure 6.4 –Water consumption seasonality: Regression b-values versus monthly income  The relationship between b-values and income for the last four income brackets here appears clearer.  It seems apparent that when monthly income is greater than 2000  NIS/month, the relationship in seasonal consumption levels off at approximately 1.2. Within the first two income brackets, consumption in the summer is either less than or equal to wintertime consumption, indicating perhaps that because income is low, households in these income brackets are more likely to consume less water, for reasons 34  that could be reasonably assumed to be high economic stress coupled with proportionally high pricing during the summer months. Simply put, for those residents whose income exceeds 2000 NIS/month, average monthly income does not play a very significant role; these residents are able to consume significantly more water in the winter than the summer. For the residents in the lowest two income brackets, income becomes a very important factor in determining that amount of available water in the summertime. 6.3 - Variations between connected/unconnected households Since all households irrespective of connection status were used for this analysis of consumption, a third tier of analysis has been included to measure differences in consumption between those households that are connected to a water network, and those that are not. The results of this linear regression are displayed in Figure 6.5. Figure 6.5 –Variations in seasonal water consumption by connection to a water network  The b-values at this level of analysis are quite similar: linear regression amongst unconnected households yields a b-value of 1.18, compared to 1.13 for connected  35  households. However, the range of values varies substantially between connected and unconnected households, as seen above. For those not connected, monthly consumption in both the winter and summer rarely exceeds 50 cubic meters a month. Amongst connected households, a greater spread exists in the possible range of values. This indicates that there is a much greater probability of having anomalously higher values of consumption amongst connected households than in unconnected households.  36  Chapter 7 – Variations between water need and consumption To explore the differences between water needs and water consumption, this chapter follows the same process of simple linear regression amongst all households. ‘Water needs’ is defined as the amount of water in cubic meters that the questionnaire respondent feels they need per month.  Figures for water consumption have been  calculated by averaging the values for winter and summer consumption in order to provide an estimate of the amount of water needed per month irrespective of seasonality. Similar to the previous chapter, a linear regression analysis was repeated three times, based upon the respondent’s district, average monthly income, and their connection/nonconnection to a water network. 7.1 - Variations at the district level To further explore the relationship between water needs and water consumption at the district level, a scatterplot matrix with linear regression was created and is displayed as Figure 7.1. Compared to the findings in the previous two chapters, the bvalues at the district level are much closer to 1 in most instances. In the districts of Jerusalem, Nablus, Qalqilya and Salfit, the b-values are less than 1. This indicates that the respondents on average feel that they need less water than they consume. However, some districts exhibit much higher b-values.  Respondents in Bethlehem and Jenin  generally feel that they need approximately 24% more water than they consume. This reflects the notion that, on average, within these two districts, amongst the questionnaire respondents, there is a perceived water shortage. To a lesser extent, respondents in Tulkarem and Hebron also feel they are underserved.  37  Figure 7.1 – Water needs versus water consumption by district  In the above figure, black squares represent points that were used for linear regression, whereas grey triangles represent outliers that were removed from further analysis. The dark line represents the regression line, and the dashed grey line represents a baseline value of b=1 for visual comparison. In all of the above cases, the calculated p-value was less than 0.001, which indicates a statistically significant relationship between the two variables.  The above b-values were mapped in Figure 7.2 to further explore if there is a spatial pattern amongst those respondents who feel they face a water shortage.  38  Figure 7.2 – Variations of water needs versus water consumption  In the above diagram, pricing values are sorted into three categories, and I have attempted to have only three districts contained within each pricing tier. Grouping is based upon 1) the spread of b-values and 2) having a suitable number of districts contained within each tier.  When viewing the above figure, there appears to be no evident spatial pattern for the relationship between water needs and water consumption at the district level. 39  7.2 - Variations amongst income levels Scatterplots were created amongst all households to discern if any respondents feel particularly under-serviced in terms of water consumption levels based upon their monthly income brackets. These plots have been included below as Figure 7.3. Figure 8.3 –Water needs versus water consumption by average monthly income  The b-value for the lowest income bracket is the lowest out of all six regression plots at 0.72. The second lowest income bracket features the highest b-value, at 1.16. Following these two brackets, one notices a steady increase in b-values, from 0.89 in the third case to 1.12 in the sixth case. For visual clarity, these b-values have again been plotted against their associated monthly income bracket, and this plot has been included as Figure 7.4.  40  Figure 7.4 –Water needs versus water consumption: Regression b-values versus monthly income  Patterns amongst monthly income levels are substantially more visible than those displayed at the district level in Figure 7.2. The low value observed at the lowest income bracket is likely the result of those respondents who likely have infrequent and difficult access to water; therefore, it is likely these respondents have adjusted to ‘needing’ much less water than they regularly consume. If the second income level is disregarded, it can be noted that as incomes increase, the perceived need for greater access to water supersedes the average values for consumption. It seems as if those who are within higher income brackets have a greater perceived need for water relative to their consumption. Overall, the trend seems to be one of steadily increasing b-values with respect to income.  41  7.3 - Variations between connected/unconnected households In a similar vein to the analysis conducted in part three of Chapter 6, a regression matrix was created to gauge the differences in perceived water need versus average water consumption between those who are connected to a water network and those who are not. This plot has been included as Figure 7.5. Figure 7.5 –Water needs versus water consumption by connection to a water network  Similar to Figure 6.5, the spread of possible values is generally much greater amongst connected households than unconnected ones.  The b-values, however, are quite  dissimilar. Amongst connected households, respondents perceive their water needs to be roughly on par with their water consumption, which is reflected in a b-value of 1.01. However, the unconnected households display a b-value of 1.34, indicating that the perceived water need amongst unconnected households is far greater than the average monthly consumption.  42  Chapter 8 – Discussion of Results The following chapter has been separated into five sections. The first section introduces the findings of the PHG in their final report, in which an increasing block tariff system is recommended.  The three sections that follow each isolate any  overarching trends amongst and within the three scales of analysis: the district scale, the income scale, and the connection/non-connection scale.  Finally, the last section  addresses overall conclusions and recommendations for Palestinian water managers based on the preceding analyses. 8.1 – From the PHG Survey The PHG concluded this report by stating that an increasing block tariff system would be the most appropriate water pricing scheme for Palestine. An increasing block tariff system (IBT) provides a ‘lifeline structure’, which prioritizes the delivery of an initial necessary block of water to all users for a price that is often below marginal costs. If the consumer wishes to be provided with more than this necessary amount of water, then they may purchase more at a higher price, referred to as a ‘second block’, at which the price per cubic meter of water is increased. As consumption increases, the cost of water per cubic meter also proportionally increases, such that those consumers who desire large volumes of water are encouraged financially to better conserve it. Such a system creates a tier of water pricing that increases proportionately to consumer demand above and beyond ‘lifeline’ amounts. An IBT is preferable for the occupied West Bank as it not only “allocates…basic water needs for people before it is allocated to other needs”, but also “truly reflects the social and environmental costs of water”31. This  31  PHG Final Report, 2000: 13.  43  policy is recommended given the sizeable differences in income, water usage, and water pricing within and amongst districts: Table 8.1 – Water usage and pricing between connected and unconnected areas  Source: PHG Final Report, 2000: 37. Used with permission. Note: NIS = New Israeli Shekals. Conversion rate as of 10/2007: 1 NIS = 0.25CAD = 0.25 USD  As shown in Table 4.1, water prices are consistently higher in unconnected areas, in addition to water usage being generally lower (also see Appendix B, Figures 3 and 4). Unconnected respondents consume significantly less water than their connected counterparts in both the summer and the winter (see Appendix B, Figures 1 and 2). The report also finds that the average price per cubic meter is approximately 3.5 times greater in unconnected areas than in connected areas. Further exploration of this data reveals that in unconnected areas, water needs exceed water use on average. The PHG also explored the differences in socioeconomic status and water habits between connected and unconnected areas (see Appendix A, Tables 1 and 2). Socioeconomic differences and variations in water habits are much less significant than  44  the much larger variations that exist for water pricing and usage. There are only a few notable exceptions: 1) Income levels are significantly lower in unconnected areas as opposed to connected areas. 65.6% of respondents in connected areas receive a monthly income of less than or equal to 3200 New Israeli Shekals, compared to 78.9% of respondents in unconnected areas. 2) A greater proportion of residents in unconnected households are likely to reuse grey water, which could lead to significant health risks. 3) A significantly higher proportion of respondents in unconnected areas blame the Israeli government for their difficulty in accessing water resources. Further investigation regarding willingness-to-pay, in terms of cost-recovery, sustainability, and development costs, was conducted amongst all respondents (see Appendix B, Figures 5 and 6). Unconnected areas exhibited a higher threshold than connected areas for willingness-to-pay for both cost recovery and sustainability of the resource. However, amongst all respondents regardless of connected, there exists a “general will to pay for a good and sustainable source”32. 8.2 – At the district level The b-values that were calculated at the district level in the previous scatterplot matrices (see Figures 5.1, 5.2; Figures 6.1, 6.2; Figures 7.1, 7.2) were averaged and subsequently mapped in Figure 8.1. By averaging and subsequently mapping the bvalues, the most significant under-serviced districts based on all three of the earlier analyses will be easily noticeable.  32  PHG Final Report, 2002: 40.  45  Figure 8.1 – Averaged B-value variations by district within the West Bank  In the above diagram, pricing values are sorted into three categories, and I have attempted to have only three districts contained within each pricing tier. Grouping is based upon 1) the spread of b-values and 2) having a suitable number of districts contained within each tier.  By averaging the b-values from each district across the study area, one would surmise that the districts that exhibit the highest b-values are those which are most in need of increased water services, due to high seasonal variations in consumption and pricing that  46  are coupled with a perceived water need that exceeds current consumption33. Three districts above all stand out prominently, with averaged b-values that are greater than 1.16: Ramallah, Jericho, and Jenin.  The inclusion of Jericho for these purposes is  questionable, however, since there were only 30 respondents out of 1070 questionnaires for this district. After the necessary removal of outliers, the number of values considered by linear regression dropped as low as 20-21 in two different matrices.  However,  according to 2005 PWA population estimates (see Table 2.4), Jericho only accounts for 2% of the total West Bank population. It seems evident that the most under-serviced district, and indeed the district that is in the direst need of sound water management, is Jenin. Jenin exhibits the highest overall b-value within the West Bank of 1.28. Of all districts, Jenin seems the most susceptible to seasonal fluctuations in pricing and consumption, as well as registering the second-highest perceived water need relative to consumption.  It is home to 254,000  residents, 18% of which are currently not connected to a water network. Coupling this with a dominantly semi-arid climate in addition to a high dependence on agriculture, Jenin is the district that is most in need of a suitable, equitable, and consistent water management system. Ramallah, despite its high rates of water network connection, relatively high urbanization, and moderate climate, also seems to be disproportionately under-serviced. However, most of the strength of Ramallah’s overall b-value stems from its high seasonal variation in consumption patterns, with moderate-level scores in terms of pricing and perceived need. High seasonal consumption fluctuations do not indicate as great of a  33  A second method of mapping out overall trends was carried out, whereby districts were assigned a rank from the previous three analyses, and were then mapped according to rank. See Appendix B, Figure 8.  47  water scarcity as that which clearly exists in Jenin. The questionnaire results from Ramallah indicate that there are a disproportionately low number of low-income respondents from Ramallah. Only 26 respondents out of 147 had an income of 2000 NIS/month or less; of these only six reported their monthly income between 0-1200 NIS/month. Therefore the high-averaged b-value from Ramallah may be the result of an increasingly urban population with a rising standard of living that feels current water service is not keeping pace with urban growth. Another possible explanation is the presence of a large number of urban visitors in the summer months. Hebron features the third highest overall b-value, and is arguably in a state of greater need than Ramallah due to its much larger population. Approximately 25% of the West Bank population lives within the district of Hebron, and furthermore, 36 000 of these residents are not connected to a water network. Despite the apparent importance of Bethlehem, one cannot ignore the importance of the estimated numbers in Table 3.4 of West Bank residents that do not have access to running water. While the importance of Jenin has already been stated, Nablus appears in Figure 8.1 to be relatively well serviced, in spite of the fact that the highest number of residents without running water is found in this district. 8.3 – Amongst income levels The variations in b-values that have been plotted with respect to average monthly income levels are summarized on the following page in Figure 8.2.  48  Figure 8.2 – Variations in b-values amongst average monthly income levels  When comparing the b-values in the following way, a number of important differences between low-income and high-income households become evident. With the lowest income households, fluctuations in seasonal consumption and perceived water need are relatively low, while seasonal variation in pricing remains high. However, most of these values in the higher-income brackets seem to temporarily stabilize, and a majority of values here seem to hover in the range between roughly 1 and 1.2. It is evident from this plotting that those residents in the lower-income bracket are in the greatest need of consistent and equitable water management. Those in the lower income brackets are susceptible to the most sizeable fluctuations in seasonal pricing, and as a result, it seems that their seasonal consumption, in addition to their perceived need, is much lower than higher-income residents. While the increasing needs of higher-income Palestinians are by no means unimportant, this thesis agrees with the recommendations of the PHG,  49  which states that it is necessary for a water management system in the West Bank to “allocate...the basic water needs to people before water is allocated to other needs”34. To this end, an increasing block tariff system would primarily focus on providing the basic amount of water needed to every resident at an equitable cost, before allocating water resources to those with higher disposable incomes who wish to pay more money for greater allotments of water. 8.4 – Between connected/unconnected households From the previous regression that was conducted between connected and unconnected households in the previous two chapters, two key points are evident. The first is that those respondents who are not connected to a water network have low rates of consumption relative to those connected to a water network. Secondly, the perceived water needs amongst unconnected households greatly exceed average water consumption, which is not the case for connected households. Therefore, it seems clear that any future water policy should bear in mind the differences in water needs and consumption that exist between connected and unconnected households. These large differences further exemplify the need for a more equitable distribution of water supplies. 8.5 – Recommendations The analysis within this report supports the PHG’s recommendation for an increasing block-tariff system as the most appropriate water management scheme for the occupied West Bank. It seems that a majority of the respondents who are under-served are residents who are at a geographical and/or economic disadvantage. Linear regression analyses has found that respondents who are underserved also often suffer from low  34  - PHG Final Report, 2002: 41.  50  economic status, are often not-connected to a pre-existing water network, and to a lesser extent can be found in the comparatively rural North. In order for the maximum number of residents within the West Bank to be adequately served, a water management system that promotes the equitable distribution of water for basic needs is the most suitable. An increasing block-tariff system seems to be the solution that would meet the needs of the greatest number of Palestinians, and would allocate the basic needs of water to residents in Jenin before concentrating on increasing supplies to burgeoning urban populations in Ramallah.  51  Chapter 9 – Conclusion A series of scatterplot matrices performed amongst variables representing the seasonality of water pricing and consumption, in addition to the perceived need of the respondents, has yielded the following conclusions: •  Non-connected respondents are faced with relatively limited and expensive supplies of consumable freshwater, coupled with high perceived water needs. An equitable water management system should strive to provide to these residents water services that are consistent, year-round, and fairly priced.  •  Some districts are disproportionately under-serviced when compared to others. From the scatterplot matrices, it can be concluded that Jenin, above all other districts, is in the greatest need for increased water services, in terms of both supply and infrastructure. Following Jenin are the districts of Hebron, Nablus, and Ramallah, in order of importance. Ramallah, despite its high overall bvalues, is considered less important than Hebron or Nablus due to the higher populations of both total residents and unconnected residents.  Under the  principles of an increasing block-tariff system, a suitable water management system in the occupied West Bank should strive to meet the basic needs of all Palestinians before allocating greater water resources to districts that already feature substantially high rates of connection and consistent, year-round water. •  Variations exist by average monthly income most notably in terms of seasonal pricing and consumption fluctuations. Specifically, the preceding analysis has demonstrated that a large disparity between higher-income and lower-income Palestinians exists in terms of water pricing and consumption and, to a lesser  52  extent, water needs.  An increasing block tariff system would be especially  effective at promoting a more equitable distribution of water amongst those with low disposable income. •  Further research should be conducted within Jericho to assess the need for greater water infrastructure. Despite Jericho’s importance at the district scale in the preceding analysis, results based on such a limited number of surveys could prove problematic or inaccurate without further investigation.  It is hoped that the  increasing utilization of the Eastern Aquifer, as postulated in the Oslo II accords, will aid in the increasing of available water supplies to Jericho. The importance of creating an equitable and just water management pricing scheme is growing. The water needs of Palestinians, especially for those not-connected to a water network, on average exceed the amount of water used. As tensions increase and supplies dwindle, the necessity for an agreement over shared water resources that allots necessary water to unconnected Palestinians becomes more apparent.  An optimistic view of  Palestinian relations with Israel must be maintained if this is to be accomplished. While Israel has officially recognized the Palestinian right to water within the West Bank, this acknowledgement has come with a loose definition of water rights that has never truly been defined; Israel recognizes this as a right to an amount of water, while Palestine argues for autonomous control over water resources35.  Furthermore, extensive  abstractions from West Bank aquifers should be avoided beyond the rate of recharge; the logic that “overdrafts will be redressed in the occasional years with very high rainfall” has led to substantial droughts for both the Israelis and the Palestinians36. Israel in  35 36  Heftendon, 2000: 61. Feitelson, 2005: 417.  53  particular must stop excessive overpumping in drought years such as 1999, where an extra 200 million cubic meters above the sustainable yield was pumped from the Western Aquifer alone37. Instead, current initiatives such as desalinization, importing water from water-rich countries (such as Canada or Turkey), and further exploiting the Eastern Aquifer to alleviate water stress for Palestinians should continue. Initiatives regarding water conservation must also be employed, not only by the Israelis but by the Palestinians as well. The PHG states in their final report that while many Palestinians “in both connected and non-connected areas are aware of the importance of water rationing…they don’t do much to practice such rationing”38. Aggressive municipal campaigns for the purposes of water conservation can prove extremely important. Gleick (2003) notes the success of one such municipal campaign in Jerusalem, which has reduced overall water consumption by anywhere between 1030%39. Furthermore, water recycling initiatives should be pursued, since 60% of urban wastewater, after treatment, is effluent and can be used again for the purposes of agriculture40. Since “in the West Bank there are no safe and complete wastewater reuse projects”, such an initiative would likely require foreign aid in order to be successful41. The possibility for conflict over water resources still exists.  However, the  experience on a worldwide scale over issues of international waters is highly weighted towards cooperation. As Giordano and Wolf state, “cooperation, rather than conflict, has been the rule in international water relations…violence over water is in fact rare”42. Even the highly-publicized and notorious war of 1967 between Israel, Egypt, Syria and Jordan 37  SUSMAQ, 2006: 1. PHG Final Report, 2002: 40. 39 Gleick, 2003: 20. 40 Yakhin, 2006: 20. 38  54  has been debunked as not being caused by water, citing a “complete lack of evidence” to support this case43. It is hopeful that this unwillingness to go to war continues to be the rule of Israeli-Palestinian water policy. In the words of former Israeli major-general Ivraham Tamir, Why go to war over water? For the price of one week’s fighting, you could build five desalination plants. No loss of life, no international pressure, and a reliable supply you don’t have to defend in hostile territory44 In the event that old agreements regarding allocations are honored, new water resources are exploited, new conservation practices are adopted, and new appropriate water pricing schemes are devised, it is hopeful that the Palestinians are able to close the gap between water use and more importantly, water needs.  41  Ibid, 20. Giordano and Wolf, 2003: 165. 43 Medzini and Wolf, 2004: 194. Also see Amery and Wolf, 2000. 44 Wolf, 2000: 92. 42  55  BIBLIOGRAPHY Allan, Tony. 2001. The Middle East Water Question: Hydropolitics and the Global Economy. London: I.B. Taurus. Applied Research Institute of Jerusalem, The. 2006. “Promoting Land Use Assessment and Management in Palestine”. Available at: http://www.arij.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=110&Itemid=30&lang=en  (last accessed 10 October 2007). Attili, Shaddad. 2005. “Israel’s Hydrohegemony”. Occasional paper submitted to the School of Oriental and Asian Studies at the University of London. Available at: http://www.soas.ac.uk/waterissuesfiles/occasionalpapers/OCC76Attili.pdf (last accessed 10 October 2007). Beaumont, Peter. 2000. “Conflict, Coexistence, and Cooperation: A Study of Water Use in the Jordan Basin.” Chapter 2 in Water in the Middle East: A Geography of Peace, eds. Amery, Hussein and Wolf, Aaron T., University of Texas Press. p19-44. B’Tselem. 2007. B’Tselem – The Israeli Information Center for Human Rights In The .... Occupied Territories. Available at: http://www.btselem.org/English (last accessed 17 April 2007). Feitelson, Eran and Haddad, Marwan, editors. 2001. Management of Shared Groundwater Resources: The Israeli-Palestinian Case with an International Perspective. Norwell, Massachusetts: Kluwer Academic Publishers. Feitelson, Eran. 2005. “Political Economy of Groundwater Exploitation: The Israeli Case.” International Journal of Water Resources Development, 21(3), 413-423. Fisher, Franklin and Huber-Lee, Annette. 2005. Liquid Assets: An Economic Approach for Water Management and Conflict Resolution in the Middle East and Beyond. Washington: RFF Press. Gleick, Peter. 1993. “Water and Conflict: Fresh Water Resources and International Security.” International Security, 18(1), 79-112. Gleick, Peter. 1996. “Basic Water Requirements for Human Activities: Meeting Basic Needs.” Water International, 21, 83-92. Land Research Center of Jerusalem. 2007. Land Research Center Website. Available at: http://www.lrcj.org (last accessed 8 October 2007). Leech, Nancy L.; Barrett, Karen C.; and Morgan, George A. 2005. SPSS for Intermediate Statistics: Use and Interpretation 2nd Edition. New Jersey: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates. 56  Lowi, Miriam. 1993. “Bridging the Divide: Transboundary Resource Disputes and the Case of West Bank Water.” International Security, 18(1), 113-138. Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics. 2007. Home – Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics. Available at: http://www.pbcs.gov.ps (last accessed 10 October 2007). Palestinian Hydrology Group. 2002. “Pricing Policy: Willingness to Pay and affordability, West Bank – Palestine.” Final report submitted to the International Development Research Center of Canada. Palestinian Hydrology Group. 2007. PHG website. Available at: http://www.phg.org (last accessed 23 April 2007). Roberts, Nigel. 1998. “Prospects for the Palestinian Economy”. Paper presented to the conference on “Resolving the Palestinian Refugee Problem: What Role for the International Community”. University of Warwick, March 23-24, 1998. SUSMAQ (Sustainable Management of the West Bank and Gaza Aquifers), 2006. 2006 Summary Report. Available at: http://www.hwe.org.ps/images/stories/HWE/SUSMAQ/SUSMAQ-Summary%20Report-DRAFT.pdf  (last accessed 10 October 2007). UNESCO. 2003. “The World’s Water Crisis”. Chapter 1 in The 1st UN World Water Development Report: Water for People, Water for Life. Available at: http://www.unesco.org/water /wwap/wwdr/pdf/chap1.pdf (last accessed 4 October 2007). United Nations Environment Programme. 2007. UNEP mapping website. Available at: http://www.grid.unep.ch/product/map/index.php (last accessed 7 October 2007). Washington Institute for Near East Policy, The. 2007. WINEP website. Available at: http://www.washingtoninstitute.org (last accessed 8 October 2007). Wolf, Aaron. 1998. “Conflict and cooperation along international waterways.” Water Policy, 1, 251-265. Wolf, Aaron. 2000. “’Hydrostrategic’ Territory in the Jordan Basin: Water, War, and Arab-Israeli Peace Negotiations.” Chapter 4 in Water in the Middle East: A Geography of Peace, eds. Amery, Hussein and Wolf, Aaron T., University of Texas Press. p.63-120. World Health Organization. 2007. WHO | Occupied Palestinian Territory. Available at: http://www.who.int/hac/crises/international/wbgs/en/ (last accessed 10 October 2007). Yakhin, Yossi. 2006. “Water in the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict”. Research paper submitted to the Baker Institute at Rice University. Available at: http://bakerinstitute.org/Pubs/rp_2006_005.pdf (last accessed 10 October 2007).  57  APPENDIX A TABLES  58  Table 1 – Socioeconomic comparison between connected and non-connected households  Source: PHG Final Report, 2002: 19. Used with permission.  Table 2 – Water habits comparison between connected and non-connected households  Source: PHG Final Report, 2002: 17. Used with permission.  59  Table 3 – Bivariate correlations amongst water pricing, consumption, and needs variables amongst all connected households in the West Bank  The above figure shows the presence of statistically significant correlations amongst all of the variables considered in the linear regression analysis.  60  APPENDIX B FIGURES  61  Figure 1 – Monthly consumption of water (in cubic meters) in the winter  Figure 2 – Monthly consumption of water (in cubic meters) in the summer  62  Figure 3 – Water cost and usage in the connected areas  Source: PHG Final Report, 2002: 14. Used with permission.  Figure 4 – Water cost and usage in the non-connected areas  Source: PHG Final Report, 2002: 14. Used with permission.  63  Figure 5 – Willingness to pay in the connected areas  Source: PHG Final Report, 2002: 23. Used with permission.  Figure 6 – Willingness to pay in the non-connected areas  Source: PHG Final Report, 2002: 23. Used with permission.  64  Figure 7 – Water use versus water needs in the non-connected areas  Source: PHG Final Report, 2002: 23. Used with permission.  Figure 8 – Ranked b-value significance in the West Bank  Districts are ranked based on their score from the initial analyses conducted in Chapters 5, 6, and 7. With regards to the ranking, 3 is the highest value and 1 is the lowest value. These values are added together to produce a final ranking for each district.  65  APPENDIX C WATER QUESTIONNAIRE  66  Questionnaire number: Province of interviewee: Name of country: Responsible body for water management 1. 2. 3. 4. 5.  company municipality specific water unit within the council village council others:_______________________________  General social information: 1) sex of interviewee 1. male  2. female  2) what is the monthly average payment in NIS for the following public services:  water  sanitation  remedy  electricity clothing  heating  telephone  residence  food  transportation education  savings  recreation  3) family index: Notice: when filling in the table, please use numbers to indicate the chosen data: • 1) 3) • 1) • 1) 3)  20 years or less 36-50 years  2) 4)  21-35 years 51 years and above  sex (third column) male  2)  female  education level (forth column) less than high school university degree (B.A)  • 1)  age (second column)  2) 4)  high school university degree (M.A. or PhD)  2)  doesn't work  working state (fifth column) works  67  • 1) 4)  type of profession (sixth column) no profession commerce  7) governmental employee advocacy….) • 1) 3)  2) 5)  industry tourism  3) 6)  8)  services  (medical,  agriculture security engineering,  monthly income/person (seventh column) less than 1000 NIS 2501 – 5000 NIS  2) 4)  1001 - 2500 NIS 5001 NIS or more  No.  Age  Sex  Education level  Working Professional Monthly Comments state type income (NIS)  (1)  (2)  (3)  (4)  (5)  68  (6)  (7)  (8)  Residence contents and private properties: 1)  number of rooms in the house? ___________________________  2)  type of residence:  1) individual house  2) apartment  owned 3)  rented  what is the grand area of the residence:  1) 60 m2 or less  2) 61-100 m2  3) 101-140 m2  4) 141-200 m2  5) 201 m2 or more  4)  number of available bathrooms in the residence?______________  5)  availability of shower:  1)  yes 6)  1)  2)  no  availability of a private car (not for work) yes, _______ (cars)  7)  2)  no  availability of a washing machine in the residence  1)  yes, automatic  2)  yes, half automatic  3)  yes, manual  4)  no, not available  8) 1)  availability of a dish washer in the residence yes  2)  69  no  Water resources, prices and consumption 1) 1) 3)  main water network surrounding springs 2)  1)  what is the main water resource for your house? 2) 4)  rainwater cistern purchasing from tanks  5) others  what is the additional water resource for your house?  water tanks mineral water  2)  springs  3)  cistern  4)  3)  what is the name of the body or organization that supplies you with water?  4)  How much money do you pay for each 1m3 of water?  1. _______________ NIS  2. I don't know  5)  What is the time period for the water bill?  6)  What is the monthly average rate of your water bill (from water networks)?  In Summer (May – September)___________________ NIS/ time period In Winter (October – April) ______________________ NIS/ time period 7)  What is the monthly average rate for water brought from other water resources  In Summer _________________ NIS/monthly In Winter __________________ NIS/monthly 8) 1. very little 9)  Do you consider the amount you pay for the water bill 2. moderate  3. a lot  4. doesn't matter  How much, in your opinion, do you think you should pay for the monthly water bill?  _______________________ NIS/ time period  70  10)  1) 2) 3) 4)  guarantee that the water will not be cut off periodical maintenance of the water networks guarantee the quality of water other 11)  1)  What are the conditions that should be available for you to pay additional amounts?  Have you ever been unable to afford paying any bills?  yes  2) 12)  1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6.  no  How would you react if you were unable to afford paying an increase in the water prices?  postpone the water bill to the following month pay it in payments transfer water through gallons from gardens or public places request for water exemption reduce water consumption loan 13)  how many cubic meters of water do you consume monthly?  In Winter _______________________ / month In Summer ______________________/ month 14)  do you have any project related to the water network of the house including the agricultural and animal raising?  1. yes, ________________________________________________________ 2. no 15)  most of the water is used for:  1. domestic use 2. agriculture 3. other 16)  how many cubic meters of water do you need only for domestic use? __________________________ m3  17)  how much water do you store in the house water tanks?  1. nothing  71  2. 1-3 m3 3. more than 3 m3 18)  has the price of 1 m3 of water differed since the Aqsa Intifada?  1. yes, __________________________ 2. no  Questionnaire Number:_____________________________________________ Name of Organization:______________________________________________ Special questions concerning the researched area or body: 1) what is the type of the researched body? 1) 3)  private company non profit organization  2) 4)  governmental (municipality,….) other  2) what is the main resource of the sold water? 1)  private cisterns  2)  West Bank Water Department  3)  Mekorot (Israeli water company) 4) governmental organization 5) other____________ 3) number of costumers whom you supply with water:_______________ 4) percentage of customers who pay their water bills without delay:_____ 5) quantity of water supplied monthly from the resource: __________m3 6) percentage of water loss from the water network:___________m3 7) price of the cubic meter of water purchased from the main resource:__________ NIS.  8) The applied tariff system: 1) united pricing 2) consumption groups 3)pricing according to the consuming sector 4) other_______________________  72  9) Price of one cubic meter of sold water Consumption sector  Consumption group(m3)  Cubic meter of water/NIS  10) Average cost of the maintenance and operation: ___________ NIS/month  11) Tax percentage:___________________  12) Delay percentage:___________________  13) Do you face any problem in paying back the amounts due for supplying water? 1)  yes  2)  no  14) What is the average monthly deficit : _______________ NIS  15) How do you pay these amounts? 1) 2) 3) 4)  Customers contribution increase in the price of one cubic meter of water supporting body other __________________ 16) In case of the inability of any customer to pay the water bill what is the procedures followed:  1) 2) 3) 4)  cut off water give a warning and a chance to pay give a chance to pay the amount in payments other:_______________  73  17) On what basis are the exemptions put and who puts them? ________________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________  74  

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