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Landslide runout: statistical analysis of physical characteristics and model parameters

University of British Columbia

Landslides are treacherous, but risk management actions based on improved prediction of landslide runout can reduce casualties and damage. Forty rapid flow-like landslides of variable volume, entrainment, and composition are used to develop a volume-runout regression, which is compared to those established in previous research. The cases are analyzed to identify the most critical characteristics observable prior to failure which differentiate between events of high and low mobility. Mitigating long-runout flow-like landslides requires accurate hazard mapping, a task best accomplished through runout modelling. Current practice requires back-analyzing a set of cases consistent in scope with the target event, then applying the same rheology and parameters to forward modelling. This thesis determines which aspects of scope are most important to prioritize when selecting similar cases, as volume, movement type, morphology, and material have a more substantial influence on mobility than other physical characteristics. Statistical analysis of the performance of frictional and Voellmy rheologies over a range of parameters for the forty case studies provides the expected mean normalized runout and associated standard deviation, and recommendations for parameters to use in initial forward modelling of prospective events.

Text

2010-06-18

Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported

http://hdl.handle.net/2429/25835

Geophysics

University of British Columbia

UBCV

http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/