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Appendix : Coding of Election Studies and Commercial Polls [Book Supplement] Pickup, Mark; Whelan, Colin Nov 10, 2014

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Appendix: Coding of Election Studies and Commercial Polls   Appendix to Chapter 10, Mark Pickup and Colin Whelan, The Issue Priorities of NDP Supporters: How Different Are They? In David Laycock and Lynda Erickson, eds., Reviving Social Democracy: The Near Death and Surprising Rise of the Federal NDP (Vancouver: UBC Press, 2014).   This online appendix includes the common demographic coding scheme applied to the Canadian Election Studies and the commercial polls from Gallup and Environics Canada for each electoral cycle. It also contains a table of summary statistics for the ROC curves from the penalized logits used to predict each issue being identified as the most important using demographics.   Common demographic coding schemes: Age, annual income, and education  Election year   Age Annual income Education 1965 Question type n/a n/a Highest level completed   Coding 4 categories: 18-29 years 30-39 years 40-49 years 50+ years 4 categories: Wealthy Average1 Average Poor 3 categories: Less than high school High school University 1968 Question type n/a n/a Highest level completed   Coding 4 categories: 18-29 years 30-39 years 40-49 years 50+ years 4 categories: Wealthy Average1 Average Poor 3 categories: Less than high school High school University 1972 Question type n/a n/a Highest level completed   Coding 5 categories: Under 20 20-29 years 30-39 years 40-49 years 50+ years 3 categories: Under $6,000 $6,000 to $10,000 Over $10,000 6 categories: Some/all elementary Some high school High school Some postsecondary Postsecondary 1974 Question type n/a n/a Highest level completed   Coding 3 categories: 8-29 years 30-49 years 50+ years 6 categories: Under $40002 $4,000 to $7,9992 $8,000 to $9,9992 $10,000 to $14,999 $15,000 to $19,999 Over $20,000 6 categories: Some elementary Elementary Some high school High school Some postsecondary Postsecondary 1979 Question type n/a n/a Highest level completed   Coding 3 categories: 18-29 years 5 categories: Under $10,000 6 categories: Some elementary 30-49 years 50+ years $10,000 to $14,999 $15,000 to $19,999 $20,000 to $29,999 Over $30,000 Elementary Some high school High school Some postsecondary Postsecondary 1980 Question type n/a n/a Highest level completed   Coding 3 categories: 18-29 years 30-49 years 50+ years 5 categories: Under $10,000 $10,000 to $14,999 $15,000 to $19,999 $20,000 to $29,999 Over $30,000 6 categories: Some elementary Elementary Some high school High school Some postsecondary Postsecondary 1984 Question type n/a n/a Highest level completed   Coding 3 categories: 18-29 years 30-49 years 50+ years 6 categories:3 Under $10,000 $10,000 to $14,999 $15,000 to $19,999 $20,000 to $29,999 $30,000 to $39,999 Over $40,000 8 categories: Some elementary/no school Elementary Some high school High school Some technical school Technical school Some postsecondary Postsecondary 1988 Question type n/a n/a Highest level attended   Coding 3 categories: 18-29 years 30-49 years 50+ years 6 categories: Under $20,000 $20,000 to $29,999 $30,000 to $39,999 $40,000 to $49,999 $50,000 to $69,999 Over $70,000 4 categories: None/elementary Secondary College University 1993 Question type n/a n/a Highest level attended   Coding 3 categories: 18-29 years 10 categories: Under $10,000 4 categories: None/Elementary 30-49 years 50+ years $10,000 to $14,999 $15,000 to $19,999 $20,000 to $29,999 $30,000 to $39,999 $40,000 to $49,999 $50,000 to $59,999 $60,000 to $69,999 $70,000 to $79,999 Over $80,000 Secondary College University 1997 Question type n/a n/a Highest level attended   Coding 3 categories: 18-29 years 30-49 years 50+ years 10 categories: Under $10,000 $10,000 to $14,999 $15,000 to $19,999 $20,000 to $29,999 $30,000 to $39,999 $40,000 to $49,999 $50,000 to $59,999 $60,000 to $69,999 $70,000 to $79,999 Over $80,000 4 categories: None/elementary Secondary College University 2000 Question type n/a n/a Highest level completed   Coding Continuous (years old) 7 categories: Under $20,000 $20,000 to $29,999 $30,000 to $39,999 $40,000 to $59,999 $60,000 to $79,999 $80,000 to $99,999 Over $100,000 7 categories: Some elementary Elementary Some high school High school Some or all of college, vocational, or trade school Some university University 2004 Question type n/a n/a Highest level completed   Coding Continuous (years old) 4 categories: Under $20,000 $20,000 to $39,999 8 categories:4 Some elementary Elementary $40,000 to $79,999 Over $80,000 Some high school High school Some or all of college, vocational, or trade school Some university University Postgraduate or professional degree 2006 Question type n/a n/a Highest level completed   Coding Continuous (years old) 5 categories: Under $30,0002 $30,000 to $59,9992 $60,000 to $79,999 $80,000 to $99,999 Over $100,000 8 categories: Some elementary Elementary Some high school High school Some or all of college, vocational, or trade school Some university University Postgraduate or professional degree 2008 Question type n/a n/a Highest level completed   Coding Continuous (years old) 5 categories:5 Under $30,000 $30,000 to $59,999 $60,000 to $79,999 $80,000 to $99,999 Over $100,000 8 categories: Some elementary Elementary Some high school High school Some or all of college, vocational, or trade school Some university University Postgraduate or professional degree 1 These categories come from the Gallup polls. To match them, the CES data were recoded based on the closest matching percentiles. 2 In some instances the precise cut-offs could not be matched by every monthly poll, but the coding was only allowed if the difference was minor. 3 For October 1988 an alternate 4-category coding was employed: under $20,000, $20,000 to $29,999, $30,000 to $39,999, over $40,000. 4 Omitted in August 2004. 5 For November 2009 an alternative 2-category coding was employed: under $40,000, over $40,000.   Common demographic coding schemes: Province, gender, and union membership  Election year   Province Gender Union membership 1965 Question type n/a n/a     Coding 10 categories: Every province, no territories 2 categories No CES variable 1968 Question type n/a n/a You?   Coding 9 categories: No PEI, no territories 2 categories Binary 1972 Question type n/a n/a You?   Coding 8 categories: No PEI, Manitoba and Saskatchewan combined, no territories 2 categories Binary 1974 Question type n/a n/a You?   Coding 10 categories:1 Every province, no territories 2 categories Binary 1979 Question type n/a n/a You?   Coding 10 categories: Every province, no territories 2 categories Binary 1980 Question type n/a n/a     Coding 10 categories: Every province, no territories 2 categories No CES variable 1984 Question type n/a n/a You or anyone in family?   Coding 10 categories:2 Every province, no territories 2 categories 4 categories: Yes, myself Yes, a family member Yes, both No, neither 1988 Question type n/a n/a You?   Coding 10 categories:3 Every province, no territories 2 categories Binary 1993 Question type n/a n/a You or anyone on household?   Coding 10 categories: Every province, no territories 2 categories Binary 1997 Question type n/a n/a You or anyone on household?   Coding 10 categories: Every province, no territories 2 categories  Binary 2000 Question type n/a n/a You or anyone on household?   Coding 10 categories:4 Every province, no territories 2 categories  Binary5 2004 Question type n/a n/a  You or anyone in household?   Coding 10 categories:6 Every province, no territories 2 categories 4 categories: Yes, myself Yes, a household member No, neither  Yes, both 2006 Question type n/a n/a  You or anyone in household?   Coding 10 categories:7 Every province, no territories 2 categories 4 categories: Yes, myself Yes, a household member No, neither  Yes, both 2008 Question type n/a n/a  You or anyone in household?   Coding 10 categories: Every province, no territories 2 categories 4 categories: Yes, myself Yes, a household member No, neither  Yes, both 1 In July 1975 an alternative 9-category coding was used that combined Nova Scotia and PEI; in October 1975, August 1976, and March 1977 an alternative 9-category coding was used that excluded PEI; and in April 1976 an alternative 9-category coding was used that excluded Nova Scotia. 2 In December 1984, September 1985, December 1985, February 1988, October 1988, and November 1988 an alternative 9-category coding was used that excluded PEI. 3 in December 1990 an alternative 8-category coding was used that excluded PEI and Newfoundland; in September 1991 an alternative 9-category coding was used that excluded PEI. 4 Omitted in February 2003, May 2003, August 2003, February 2004, and May 2004. 5 Omitted in November 2003. 6 Omitted in August 2004, February 2005, May 2005, and August 2005. 7 Omitted in August 2007.   Common demographic coding schemes: Community size, language, and occupation  Election year   Community size Language Occupation 1965 Question type n/a Language of interview Current occupation   Coding 3 categories: City Suburb Other 2 categories: English French 10 categories: Professional Business/executive Sales/clerical Unskilled labour Skilled Labour Farmer Widow/spinster Retired Military Otherwise not working 1968 Question type n/a Language of interview Current occupation   Coding 6 categories: Over 500,000 100,000-500,000 30,000-100,000 10,000-30,000 1,000-10,000 Rural/farm 2 categories: English French 10 categories: Professional Owner/manager/business Sales/clerical Unskilled labour Skilled Labour Farmer Student Retired Military Otherwise not working 1972 Question type n/a Language of interview  Current occupation   Coding 6 categories: Over 500,000 100,000-500,000 30,000-100,000 10,000-30,000 1,000-10,000 Rural/farm 2 categories: English French 10 categories: Professional Owner/manager/business Sales/clerical Unskilled labour Skilled Labour Farmer Student Retired Widow/ spinster  Unemployed 1974 Question type n/a  Language of interview Current occupation   Coding No CES variable 2 categories: English French 7 categories: Not in labour force Professional Business/executive/owner Sales/clerical Skilled labour Unskilled labour Farmer 1979 Question type n/a Language of interview Current occupation   Coding 6 categories: Over 500,000 100,000-500,000 30,000-100,000 10,000-30,000 1,000-10,000 Rural/farm 2 categories: English French 7 categories: Not in labour force Professional Executive/manager Sales/clerical Skilled labour Unskilled labour Other employed 1980 Question type n/a Language of interview Currently unemployed?   Coding 6 categories: Over 500,000 100,000-500,000 30,000-100,000 10,000-30,000 1,000-10,000 Rural/farm 2 categories: English French Binary  1984 Question type n/a Usually spoken at home Current occupation   Coding 6 categories: Over 500,000 100,000-500,000 30,000-100,000 10,000-30,000 1,000-10,000 Rural/farm 3 categories: English French Other 9 categories: Professional Manager/owner/executive Sales Clerical Skilled labour Unskilled labour Unemployed Homemaker/widow Student 1988 Question type n/a Usually spoken at home Current occupation   Coding No CES variable 3 categories: English French Other 9 categories: Other Professional Manager/Owner Sales/Clerical Skilled labour/Farmer Unskilled labour Student Homemaker Unemployed 1993 Question type n/a Earliest learned and still know  Current occupation   Coding  No CES variable 3 categories: English 9 categories: Unemployed/not working French Other Retired Student Housewife Professional/technical Executive Sales Clerical Labour 1997 Question type n/a Earliest learned and still know Current occupation   Coding  No CES variable 3 categories: - English - French - Other  9 categories: Unemployed/not working Retired Student Housewife Professional/Technical Executive Sales Clerical Labour 2000 Question type n/a Earliest learned and still know Employment status  Coding  No CES variable 3 categories: English French Other 7 categories: Working full-time Working part-time Unemployed Stay-at-home parent Student Retired Disability pension 2004 Question type n/a Earliest learned and still know Employment status   Coding  No CES variable 3 categories: English French 7 categories:1 Working Unemployed Other Self-employed Stay-at-home parent Student Retired Disability pension 2006 Question type n/a Earliest learned and still know Employment status   Coding  No CES variable 3 categories: English French Other 7 categories: Working Unemployed Self-employed Stay-at-home parent Student Retired Disability pension 2008 Question type n/a Earliest learned and still know Employment status   Coding  No CES variable 3 categories: English French Other 7 categories:2 Working Unemployed Self-employed Stay-at-home parent Student Retired Disability pension 1 In November 2004, February 2005, and August 2005 an alternative 4-category coding was used: working, not in labour force, self-employed, student. 2 In November 2004 an alternative 6-category coding was used that was the same with the omission of disability pension.   Table of ROC results indicating fits for the penalized logits predicting the identification of each issue as the most important: Unemployment, budget, trade, and environment    Unemployment Budget Trade Environment Poll date ROC value ROC S.E. ROC value ROC S.E. ROC value ROC S.E. ROC value ROC S.E. 1965-10 0.741 0.018   0.948 0.019   1972-09 0.644 0.022     0.768 0.038 1973-09 0.785 0.032     0.855 0.030 1974-03 0.693 0.033     0.805 0.038 1975-07 0.707 0.027       1975-10 0.750 0.029     0.909 0.036 1976-04 0.732 0.026     0.972 0.010 1976-08 0.725 0.024 0.692 0.025   0.817 0.024 1976-09 0.736 0.027       1977-03 0.678 0.023       1978-01 0.685 0.020       1978-05 0.664 0.020       1978-09 0.669 0.021       1979-04 0.665 0.021       1979-08 0.663 0.021       1980-01 0.787 0.032       1980-07 0.725 0.026       1980-10 0.733 0.027       1981-01 0.760 0.023       1981-07 0.745 0.029       1982-06 0.691 0.021       1982-08 0.653 0.022 0.638 0.019   0.679 0.021 1982-12 0.667 0.021       1983-02 0.645 0.019       1983-06 0.629 0.020       1983-10 0.640 0.019       1983-11 0.626 0.020       1984-05 0.645 0.019       1984-07 0.651 0.020       1984-12 0.665 0.019       1985-06 0.651 0.019       1985-09 0.666 0.018       1985-12 0.667 0.019   0.982 0.013   1986-06 0.610 0.020       1987-02 0.663 0.019   0.821 0.036 0.860 0.029 1987-06 0.677 0.019   0.826 0.039 0.845 0.032 1988-02 0.748 0.020   0.759 0.024 0.898 0.023 1988-06 0.727 0.020   0.778 0.025 0.812 0.022 1988-08 0.724 0.021   0.738 0.023 0.767 0.023 1988-10 0.762 0.037   0.621 0.023 0.796 0.046 1990-01 0.652 0.023   99.000 99.000 99.000 99.000 1990-12 0.733 0.023   0.863 0.049 0.861 0.028 1991-09 0.669 0.022   0.888 0.024 0.852 0.046 1993-09 0.663 0.021 0.673 0.023 0.978 0.011 0.922 0.023 1994-01 0.698 0.020 0.725 0.023 0.982 0.009 0.999 0.001 1994-07 0.673 0.020 0.718 0.022 0.983 0.009 0.946 0.018 1995-01 0.666 0.021 0.713 0.021 0.966 0.023 0.997  1995-11 0.717 0.022 0.692 0.024 99.000 99.000 1.000  1996-01 0.650 0.021 0.689 0.027 1.000  1.000 0.000 1996-07 0.666 0.020 0.752 0.027 99.000 99.000 0.973 0.011 1997-01 0.662 0.020 0.693 0.025 0.996  0.996 0.004 1997-05 0.676 0.019 0.715 0.025 1.000  0.981 0.017 1999-01 0.729 0.022 0.774 0.026 0.999 0.001 0.937 0.019 2000-01 0.745 0.024 0.716 0.039 1.000 0.000 0.949 0.025 2000-11 0.765 0.033 0.771 0.030 1.000  0.942 0.016 2001-02 0.691 0.020 0.811 0.039   0.715 0.027 2001-05 0.726 0.018 0.770 0.044   0.723 0.023 2001-08 0.690 0.022 0.830 0.041   0.802 0.035 2001-11 0.785 0.025 0.797 0.032   0.811 0.038 2003-02 0.667 0.024 0.836 0.036   0.736 0.040 2003-05 0.673 0.025 0.796 0.041   0.721 0.028 2003-08 0.699 0.022 0.804 0.052   0.730 0.029 2003-11 0.659 0.023 0.771 0.031   0.729 0.033 2004-02 0.713 0.031 0.862 0.040   0.713 0.041 2004-05 0.666 0.029 0.669 0.061   0.658 0.035 2004-08 0.657 0.036 0.783 0.038   0.634 0.044 2004-11 0.730 0.029 0.809 0.052   0.673 0.034 2005-02 0.671 0.031 0.774 0.046   0.719 0.029 2005-05 0.680 0.027 0.737 0.043   0.725 0.023 2005-08 0.702 0.031 0.820 0.046   0.650 0.031 2005-11 0.712 0.031 0.801 0.035   0.759 0.022 2006-05 0.692 0.030 0.788 0.049   0.685 0.022 2006-08 0.720 0.027 0.839 0.032   0.684 0.020 2006-11 0.775 0.027 0.834 0.043   0.690 0.017 2007-02 0.722 0.037 0.924 0.025   0.679 0.021 2007-08 0.713 0.027 0.795 0.042   0.663 0.017 2007-11 0.721 0.027 0.866 0.035   0.652 0.017 2008-02 0.790 0.025 0.841 0.061   0.684 0.018 2008-05 0.699 0.034 0.919 0.031   0.688 0.018 2008-08 0.801 0.028 0.863 0.053   0.675 0.024 2008-11 0.754 0.019 0.950 0.026   0.794 0.023 2009-02 0.722 0.024 0.862 0.058   0.746 0.030 2009-05 0.728 0.017 0.735 0.045   0.713 0.027 2009-08 0.725 0.022 0.842 0.039   0.724 0.030 2009-11 0.724 0.023 0.874 0.030   0.729 0.026                Table of ROC results indicating fits for the penalized logits: Inflation, tax, health, and welfare    Inflation Tax Health Welfare Poll date ROC value ROC S.E. ROC value ROC S.E. ROC value ROC S.E. ROC value ROC S.E. 1965-10 0.679 0.022     0.779 0.023 1972-09 0.660 0.021       1973-09 0.644 0.022       1974-03 0.655 0.018       1975-07 0.659 0.019       1975-10 0.650 0.020       1976-04 0.637 0.019       1976-08 0.653 0.020   0.721 0.028   1976-09 0.629 0.019       1977-03 0.633 0.019       1978-01 0.669 0.019       1978-05 0.634 0.019       1978-09 0.680 0.019       1979-04 0.647 0.019       1979-08 0.627 0.017       1980-01 0.682 0.024       1980-07 0.624 0.020       1980-10 0.616 0.020       1981-01 0.632 0.020       1981-07 0.645 0.020       1982-06 0.674 0.019       1982-08 0.643 0.021   0.670 0.025   1982-12 0.684 0.020       1983-02 0.670 0.019       1983-06 0.676 0.020       1983-10 0.683 0.019       1983-11 0.692 0.020       1984-05 0.632 0.020       1984-07 0.632 0.021       1984-12 0.689 0.021       1985-06 0.727 0.021       1985-09 0.700 0.022       1985-12 0.735 0.021       1986-06 0.688 0.022       1987-02 0.740 0.030       1987-06 0.765 0.033       1988-02 0.717 0.029       1988-06 0.794 0.027   0.901 0.041   1988-08 0.770 0.026       1988-10         1990-01 0.648 0.021       1990-12 0.666 0.028 0.771 0.035 1.000 0.000   1991-09 0.704 0.027 0.718 0.028 0.973 0.022   1993-09 0.930 0.070 0.826 0.037 0.952 0.022   1994-01 0.999 0.001 0.950 0.028 0.960 0.020   1994-07 0.974 0.018 0.807 0.046 0.980 0.013   1995-01 0.949 0.045 0.894 0.030 0.803 0.057 0.875 0.043 1995-11 0.981 0.017 0.963 0.021 0.848 0.038 0.911 0.024 1996-01   0.954 0.014 0.956 0.019 0.930 0.025 1996-07 1.000  0.887 0.030 0.849 0.039   1997-01 0.996 0.004 0.829 0.048 0.840 0.038 0.924 0.023 1997-05   0.850 0.041 0.844 0.029 0.892 0.033 1999-01 0.952 0.030 0.806 0.030 0.682 0.026 0.812 0.031 2000-01 1.000 0.000 0.833 0.023 0.663 0.022 0.773 0.036 2000-11 0.982 0.011 0.797 0.030 0.665 0.019 0.829 0.033 2001-02 0.799 0.036 0.736 0.022 0.692 0.016 0.752 0.043 2001-05 0.816 0.041 0.713 0.023 0.649 0.015 0.748 0.035 2001-08 0.794 0.048 0.721 0.033 0.684 0.020 0.782 0.034 2001-11 0.876 0.043 0.708 0.028 0.661 0.016 0.810 0.026 2003-02 0.710 0.035 0.673 0.035 0.604 0.017 0.687 0.045 2003-05 0.735 0.046 0.734 0.028 0.604 0.016 0.767 0.037 2003-08 0.857 0.034 0.670 0.031 0.605 0.015 0.771 0.041 2003-11 0.798 0.031 0.687 0.025 0.639 0.015 0.797 0.043 2004-02 0.776 0.048 0.736 0.028 0.628 0.019 0.791 0.070 2004-05 0.772 0.062 0.666 0.027 0.631 0.014 0.813 0.054 2004-08 0.852 0.059 0.660 0.037 0.610 0.018 0.723 0.047 2004-11 0.768 0.079 0.720 0.028 0.640 0.017 0.818 0.033 2005-02 0.819 0.052 0.676 0.028 0.660 0.017 0.838 0.054 2005-05 0.706 0.053 0.689 0.025 0.655 0.014 0.798 0.041 2005-08 0.641 0.048 0.666 0.031 0.619 0.019 0.801 0.051 2005-11 0.804 0.044 0.725 0.027 0.673 0.014 0.756 0.051 2006-05 0.737 0.037 0.722 0.025 0.631 0.017 0.927 0.030 2006-08 0.747 0.038 0.774 0.036 0.655 0.016 0.924 0.028 2006-11 0.829 0.041 0.791 0.031 0.650 0.018 0.865 0.047 2007-02 0.755 0.030 0.975 0.017 0.829 0.045 0.741 0.063 2007-08 0.696 0.048 0.738 0.035 0.653 0.015 0.835 0.091 2007-11 0.754 0.035 0.750 0.030 0.678 0.018 0.964 0.036 2008-02 0.739 0.032 0.725 0.033 0.642 0.017 0.974 0.016 2008-05 0.712 0.029 0.721 0.036 0.675 0.019 0.983 0.012 2008-08 0.813 0.031 0.746 0.047 0.684 0.018 0.942 0.023 2008-11 0.842 0.040 0.830 0.087 0.728 0.025 1.000  2009-02 0.872 0.061 0.922 0.018 0.710 0.030 0.955 0.044 2009-05 0.827 0.049 0.762 0.046 0.685 0.022 0.938 0.039 2009-08 0.886 0.047 0.773 0.052 0.696 0.022 0.944 0.032 2009-11 0.822 0.050 0.886 0.026 0.719 0.027 99 99     

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