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The sea around us project : assessing the impact of fisheries on marine ecosystems and food security Pauly, D. (Daniel); Tavakolie, Ar’ash; Zeller, Dirk, 1961- Nov 1, 2012

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The Sea Around Us Project: Assessing the impact of Fisheries on Marine Ecosystems and Food Security  Daniel Pauly, Ar’ash Tavakolie and Dirk Zeller Sea Around Us Project Fisheries Centre, UBC  Open Access Week @ UBC  This graph, illustrating a Canadian tragedy, leads to several questions. One of them is: how typical is the story of the Northern cod fishery? Can we generalize?  And it goes on!  We can define, for each catch time series …  Fully exploited  Developing Underdeveloped…  Over-exploited  Crashed  Now let’s apply these definitions to the global FAO catch statistics…  The overall picture is easy to interpret… Crashed  Stocks (%)  Over-exploited Fully exploited  Developing  Underdeveloped  Stocks (%)  Also, it is tempting to project these trends…  2048 ?  Let’s generalize: ecosystems are ‘pyramids’ of flows: 4  10%  3  2  1   10%  .. . . . . . . . 10% . *. .*. . *. . . *. . . . .  * *. *. *.. *.  .  ...  and each species tends to have its own trophic level…  The expansion starts: marine ‘primary production’ required by fisheries in the 1950s… 1950  0%  30%  The expansion continues: marine ‘primary production’ required by fisheries in the 2000s 2005  0%  30%  Change in the fraction of the ocean under fisheries exploitation, 1950 to present  Fisheries have expanded not only offshore, but also deeper and southward  Year 1950 0  1960  1970  1980  1990  2000  500  Depth (m)  7 6  1000  High catch  5 4  1500  3 2 1  2000  0  Low catch  Another generalization emerges when we compute the mean trophic level of world catches. This shows a global decline… 3.6  North Atlantic  Trophic level  3.5  3.4  Global coastal  3.3  3.2 1950  1955  1960  1965  1970  1975  Year  1980  1985  1990  1995  2000  Pauly et al. (Science, 1998)  And this means that ‘fishing down’ is everywhere  We can see from space how trawlers stir up sediment… Here: shrimp trawlers off the Texas Coast, Gulf of Mexico  Photo courtesy of Dr. Kyle van Houten (Duke University)  Dead zones are increasing in number and size. One example of this is in the northern Gulf of Mexico, whose extent broadly overlaps with sources of jellyfish outbreaks  The effect of all this is that jellyfish appear to increase almost everywhere...  To test this, a global analysis was conducted of cases of increases, decreases or no changes on a global basis. The key result is here:  Increase Stable/Variable Decrease  Brotz al. (Hydrobiologia, 2012)  Meanwhile, thing are heating up…  Al Gore & IPCC: Nobel Prize 2007 ………..  Observed climate-induced shifts in distribution ranges Poleward shifts in distribution ranges of marine species, e.g., in the North Sea.  Cod  Angler fish  Snake blenny  Perry et al. (Science, 2005)  Simulating poleward shifts using temperatureabundance profiles… Probability of occurrence by water temperature  Relative abundance Relative abundance 0  Low  0 - 0.00015 > 0.0015 - 0.0038 > 0.0038 - 0.0062 > 0.0062 - 0.0095 > 0.0095 - 0.012 > 0.012 - 0.016 > 0.016 - 0.023 > 0.023 - 0.030 > 0.030 - 0.040  High  > 0.040  Probability of occurrence  Small yellow croaker (Larimichthys polyactis) 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.00  2  4  6  8  10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28  Temperature (degree C)  Small yellow croaker Year 0  Small yellow croaker Year 2  Small yellow croaker Year 4  Small yellow croaker Year 6  Small yellow croaker Year 8  Small yellow croaker Year 10  Small yellow croaker Year 12  Small yellow croaker Year 14  Small yellow croaker Year 16  Small yellow croaker Year 18  Small yellow croaker Year 20  Small yellow croaker Year 22  Small yellow croaker Year 24  Small yellow croaker Year 26  Small yellow croaker Year 28  Small yellow croaker Year 30  Projected change in catch potential in 50 years  Cheung, Lam, Kearney, Sarmiento, Watson, Zeller and Pauly (Global Change Biology, 2009)  Changes in catch potential, by EEZ  Cheung, Lam, Kearney, Sarmiento, Watson, Zeller and Pauly (Global Change Biology. 2009)  Kleisner et al. 2012. Using global catch data for inferences on the world’s marine fisheries. Fish and Fisheries.  Kleisner et al. 2012. Using global catch data for inferences on the world’s marine fisheries. Fish and Fisheries.  Kleisner et al. 2012. Using global catch data for inferences on the world’s marine fisheries. Fish and Fisheries.  Acknowledgements… • Thanks to the Pew Environment Group and Lenfest Ocean Program for funding  • Fisheries Centre, University of British Columbia  • Members of the Sea Around Us Project:  and many others.  visit us at www.seaaroundus.org  

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