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Sea Around Us project newsletter, issue 33, January/February 2006 Forrest, Robyn; Sea Around Us Project Jan 31, 2006

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SSSS Seeee e aaaa a     AAAA Arrrr r ouououou ounnnn ndddd d     UUUU Ussss sThe Sea Around Us Project NewsletterIssue 33 – January/February 2006Turning the tide is easyenoughby Villy ChristensenTides are after allpredictable: just waitfor the right momentbefore pushing the waterback. When it comes to re-directing a current, it is farmore difficult – it takesclimate change to shift theGulf Stream.To many, what ishappening to the world’sfisheries, at the local,regional, or global scale,appears to be more like aone-way current than atide with ups and downs[1]. We seem to begradually eroding theecosystems on which ourfood supply from theoceans rely, even if wemay not notice itindividually [2].  What canwe do to curb the directionof widespreaddegradation? It is adaunting task to embarkon; one where we (like theartists sensu Piet Hein, seep.2-3) cannot explicitlyexpress how we will goabout solving the problem.We do, however, have anidea of, and experiencewith, techniques andmaterials we can use todeliver our small con-tribution to the solution.We take as a starting pointthat few ministers offisheries actually go to sea.Their agricultural colleaguesappear in the evening newswhen there is a crisis,kicking the dirt andpretending to be farmers.How do you take a ministerof fisheries on a field trip?And how can we show theminister the impact wehave had on oceanresources, and those ourfuture actions will have?We’ll try virtual reality.A necessary factor for us toeven consider such anapproach is that ecosystemmodeling has taken somemajor steps in recent years,linked to the incorporationof foraging arena theoryinto Ecopath with Ecosim(EwE) [3], and making usquite capable ofreproducing the knownhistory in many marineecosystems [4]. We arelearning in the process thatto explain historic trends wemust, as a rule, includefisheries as well asenvironmental factors [5].This provides an importantcomponent of thetechniques we need to setup realistic field trips. As formaterials, we have at hand asuite of global databasesthrough the Sea Around Usproject (see p. 5) that canbe used directly toparameterize theecosystem models we needfor the field-trip simulations.Adding to this is progress ingaming-theoreticalapproaches, needed to setup a realistic framework forthe future scenariosimulations. Going back tothe ‘fish wars’ approach ofLevhari and Mirman [6], thegames of Walters andcolleagues [7], and the workof Clark, Munro and Sumaila[8, 9], we now have a well-developed portfolio forincluding economic andhuman-behavior aspects.The component to beadded is visualization. Weare, as scientists, inclined tocommunicate with otherscientists. Our tools aredesigned to that end, andpresenting figures inPowerPoint and tables inpapers may well be theright media. If we examinethe world where decisionsof ecosystem managementare made, we note,Continued on page 2 - TidePage 2Sea Around Us – January/February 2006The Sea Around Us project is a Fisheries Centre partner-ship with the Pew Charitable Trusts of Philadelphia,USA. The Trusts support nonprofit activities in the areas ofculture, education, the environment, health and human serv-ices, public policy and religion. Based in Philadelphia, the Trustsmake strategic investments to help organisations and citizensdevelop practical solutions to difficult problems. In 2000, withapproximately $4.8 billion in assets, the Trusts committed over$235 million to 302 nonprofit organisations. ISSN 1713-5214   Sea Around Us (ONLINE)The Sea Around Us project newsletter ispublished by the  Fisheries Centre at theUniversity of British Columbia. Included withthe Fisheries Centre’s newsletter FishBytes,sixissues of this newsletter are publishedannually. Subscriptions arefree of charge.Our mailingaddress is: SeaAround Us project,Aquatic EcosystemsR e s e a r c hLaboratory,  2202Main Mall, Vancouver,British Columbia,Canada, V6T 1Z4. Our faxnumber is (604) 822-8934, and our emailaddress is SeaNotes@fisheries.ubc.ca. Allqueries (including reprint requests),subscription requests, and address changesshould be addressed to Robyn Forrest, SeaAround Us Newsletter Editor.The Sea Around Us website may be foundat saup.fisheries.ubc.ca and contains up-to-date information on the project.however, that it is onedominated by people with verydiverse backgrounds andexperience, and we need toconsider means ofcommunication going beyondour usual repertoire.Visualizations can providepowerful messages, and, whenbuilding on the best availablescience, the messages may alsobe convincing and enabling.That’s our ambition.We have entered intopartnership with the LenfestOcean Program(www.lenfestocean.org/) todevelop a methodology for“Ocean Summits” ambitiouslyaimed at shifting the current. Weenvisage bringing togetherdecision-makers for two days’discussion about themanagement of specificecosystems. Prior to eachsummit, we will work withscientists from the given area toproduce an ecosystem modeldescribing the known history ofexploitation. At the summit wewill run through the ecosystemhistory visualized in 3D, aboveand below the surface, andemphasizing ecological as wellas social impacts of ourexploitation. This will set thestage for forward-lookingscenarios aimed at quicklyexploring how ecosystem andsociety are likely to react tomanagement interactions andthe resulting fishing pressure.The people at the table willrepresent all aspects of themanagement process. For this,we are developing software thatincorporates multiple objectivesand management options, all aspart of a theoretical gamingapproach.While the visualizations and theunderlying modeling approachare important for conveyingimpact, they will only set thestage for the deliberationsaround the table. The aim is toenable discussions and displayresults of the decisions taken,not to point to ‘best solutions’ tobe obtained, e.g., throughoptimizations (though suchoptimizations are indeedfeasible and will be used toprovide reference points). Wehope there will be win-winscenarios emerging (shifting thecurrent, remember?), but realizethat there are serious trade-offissues to be dealt with in a worldof ‘real-politik’ [10].We are currently well underwaywith the software developmentfor the Ocean Summits, and onetangible initial result from it willbe a re-designed and re-programmed version of the EwEsoftware (for release September2007).  A new version is requiredin order to link EwE to thevisualization software. Thevisualization software is beingdeveloped in close cooperationwith the NECTAR project of theComputer Science Departmentof UBC and is drawing onVancouver’s status as a hub forthe computer gaming industry.We are, for the development,relying heavily on the scenariolaboratory of the newly openedAERL building at UBC. This darkroom (see picture, top of p. 4),which some consider the heartof the building, is designed withthe intention of enabling theform for cooperation andvisualization described here forthe Ocean Summits: a war-roomfunctionality. Technically, this isachieved with focus on enablingdiscussions around the tablewhile allowing all participants asense of immersion throughlarge wall plasma screens, and asense of control via direct accessto information and managementcontrols through the built-inTide - Continued from page 1Continued on page 5 - TideVisualizationscan providepowerfulmessages,and, whenbuilding onthe bestavailablescience, themessagesmay also beconvincingandenablingPage 3 Sea Around Us – January/February 2006Piet Hein and the scenariolab tableAfter all, what is art?Art is the creative processand it goes through all fields.Einstein’s theory of relativity- now that is a work of art!Einstein was more of an artist in physicsthan on his violin.Art is this:art is the solution of a problemwhich cannot be expressed explicitlyuntil it is solved.Piet Hein (1905-1996)Piet Hein was a good friend of Einstein, as well as of Bohr and Chaplin; themathematician Norbert Weiner dedicated a book to Hein; he studied fine arts andphilosophy, then quantum physics. He invented the Soma Cube while listening to alecture by Werner Heisenberg; he studied engineering, leading to industrial inventionsand design; he spent a good part of the Second World War underground as an outspokenanti-Nazi leader, while achieving eponymous fame writing short, double-meaning poemsfor the leading Danish newspaper – he eventually wrote some 10,000 of such ‘grooks’(see Box, p.5); he invented numerous games with a mathematical touch, one the basis forthe TV game show ‘Blockbusters’; he was a productive writer in philosophy, humanity andscience; and … he invented the superellipse.This came about when, in the early 1960s, he was asked to solve a design problem as partof a major city-planning project in Stockholm. He turned the problem into the intriguingquestion: what is the simplest and most pleasing closed curve that mediates fairlybetween the clashing orthogonal and circularshapes that dominate our surroundings? [11]. Thesearch led him to discover the superellipse, aspecial form of an ellipse. Ellipses aremathematically defined as:122=⎟⎠⎞⎜⎝⎛+⎟⎠⎞⎜⎝⎛byaxPiet Hein, however, generalized the equation (asLamé had done before him) by using variableexponents, and found that as the exponents wereincreased above 2, the shape gradually transformedtoward a rectangular form. He called such shapes‘superellipses’, and found the shape with exponentsof 2.5 especially pleasing from an aesthetical pointof view.  They are a beautiful compromise betweena circle and a rectangle (see right).Continued on page 4 - Piet HeinPictures of Piet Hein and the superellipsefrom www.piethein.comWhat is thesimplest andmostpleasingclosed curvethatmediatesfairlybetween theclashingorthogonaland circularshapes thatdominateoursurroundings?A superellipse:Page 4Sea Around Us – January/February 2006The scenario lab., featuring the superellipse table                                                                                                              Photo by Calvin LoIndeed, the shape spread like wildfire and soon it was used for buildings, plazas, sport centres(notably the Olympic Stadium in Mexico City), board games, drink coolers, anti-stress balls, candleholders, lamps, dishes, trays, beds … and not the least tables.We now have such a superellipse table in the AERL building.It is the centerpiece of the scenario laboratory of the AERL, the new home of the FisheriesCentre. In discussions with Prof Douw Steyn, Associate Dean of Research and responsible for theAERL building process, and architect Greg Boothroyd, we considered a variety of shapes for thetable. We all wanted a table where there was no “us and them”; a table that would encouragecooperation among those at it. The round table of King Arthur fame springs to mind for severalreasons, but the scenario lab is rectangular and a round table would not seat enough participants.Piet Hein’s superellipse provides the solution (see picture above). Expressed mathematically wehave for any point along the table length (x) that the width (y) can be obtained from:,1 ⎥⎥⎦⎤⎢⎢⎣⎡ ⎟⎠⎞⎜⎝⎛−⋅====⎟⎠⎞⎜⎝⎛+⎟⎠⎞⎜⎝⎛axbyhavewenmwithbyaxnmwhere the length a = 380 cm and the width b = 260 cm. With the equation in hand, GregBoothroyd and colleagues at Patkau Architects designed the table, and Boelling Smith Designcreated the beautifully-crafted table, which now stands complete with 10 built-in workstationsand 12 seats. Also, Renee Stewart-Smith from PJS Systems has done an incredible job connectingdozens of cables between the workstations, the adjacent control room, screens and computersto the right places.It is a beauty of a table - everyone can see everyone else at it. There is no “us and them”.  Or inPiet Hein’s words: “Co-existence or no existence”.Piet Hein - Continued from page 3We allwanted atable wherethere wasno “us andthem”; atable thatwouldencouragecooperationamongthose at itPage 5 Sea Around Us – January/February 2006workstations as well as to theresulting impacts.Technically, the modeling andvisualizations represent a clearchallenge, but it is one we arefairly certain we can meet,making it a technical andscientific challenge, rather thanart sensu Piet Hein. Where theart comes in is in getting thesummit participants to exploreand adopt management optionsthat will change the directionwe have taken in mostecosystems – in shifting thecurrent.References1. Pauly, D. et al. 2003. The futurefor fisheries. Science302(5649), 1359-1361.2. Pauly, D. 1995. Anecdotes andthe shifting baselinesyndrome of fisheries. Trendsin Ecology & Evolution 10(10),430.3. Walters, C.J. and S.J.D. Martell.2004. Fisheries ecology andmanagement. PrincetonUniversity Press, Princeton,399 pp.4. Christensen, V. and C.J.Walters. 2005. Usingecosystem modeling forfisheries management: Whereare we? ICES C.M., M:19.5. Guénette, S. et al.  in review.Evaluating the combinedeffects of fishing, predation,competition, and oceanproductivity on Steller sea lionin Southeast Alaska and thewestern and central AleutianTHE ETERNAL TWINSTaking fun  as simply funand earnestness  in earnestshows how thoroughly  thou noneof the two  discernest.LILLE KAT, LILLE KATLille kat, lille kat,lille kat på vejenHvis er du?Hvis er du?Jeg er s’gu min egen.For more grooks try www.chat.carleton.ca/~tcstewar/grooks/grooks.html or Google for “grooks”.“Grooks” by Piet HeinSOCIAL MECHANISMWhen people alwaystry to takethe very smallest piece of cakehow can it alsoalways bethat that’s the onethat’s left for me?For the simulations weneed extensiveinformation aboutenvironmental impact: past,present and future. For this, weare cooperating with severalresearch groups specializing inpredicting ocean productivitybased on climatic drivers andincorporating it in climate models.We can mention the EuropeanCommission’s Joint ResearchCentre in Ispra, Italy; CSIRO Hobart;Princeton University; as well as theClimate Modelling Centre atUniversity of Victoria. Resultingfrom this are spatial predictionsabout primary and secondaryproductivity spanning a centuryfrom 1950.Through the Sea Around Usproject we have informationabout spatial catches back to1950; effort data has been addedthrough the thesis work of AhmedGelchu, Heather Keith and RobertAhrens; while those of KristinKaschner, Line Bang Christensenand Vaso Karpouzi have addedmarine mammal and birdinformation. Information aboutpopulation trends for marineorganisms (3000 records globally)has been added through adatabase developed by JordanBeblow. Prices (and soon cost offishing and trade of fisheriesproducts) are available throughthe work of Rashid Sumaila andcolleagues. Seewww.seaaroundus.org forfurther information.Tide - Continued from page 2Islands using ecosystemmodels. Canadian Journal ofFisheries and AquaticSciences.6. Levhari, D. and L.J. Mirman.1980.The great fish war: anexample using a dynamicCournot-Nash solution. TheBell Journal of Economics11(1), 322-334.7. Walters, C.J. 1994. Use ofgaming procedures inevaluation of managementexperiments. CanadianJournal of Fisheries andAquatic Sciences 51(12),2705-2714.8. Clark, C.W. et al. 2005.Subsidies, buybacks, andsustainable fisheries. Journalof Environmental Economicsand Management 50(1), 47-58.9. Sumaila, U.R. and C. Walters.2005. Intergenerationaldiscounting: a new intuitiveapproach. EcologicalEconomics 52(2), 135-142.10. Walters, C.J. and F.C.Coleman. 2004. Proceedingsof the fourth William R. andLenore Mote internationalsymposium in fisheriesecology, November 5-7, 2002,Sarasota, Florida - Confrontingtrade-offs in the ecosystemapproach to fisheriesmanagement - Preface.Bulletin of Marine Science74(3), 489-490.11. Gardner, M. 1965. The“Superellipse”: a curve thatlies between the ellipse andthe rectangle, ScientificAmerican, Sept., 1965.Where theart comes inis in gettingthe summitparticipantsto exploreand adoptmanagementoptionsthat willchange thedirectionwe havetaken inmostecosystemsPage 6Sea Around Us – January/February 2006Thinking big:a global look at fisheries scienceMay 2nd, 2006University of British Columbia, Vancouver, CanadaA symposium to honour Professor Daniel Pauly for the 13th International Cosmos Prizeand his 60th BirthdayThe University of British Columbia is proud to host a celebratory symposium at the University, on the occasion ofProfessor Pauly’s 60th Birthday. Distinguished international colleagues will give invited lectures with focus on topicsrepresenting Prof Pauly’s career, with further festivities at dinner. A student forum and public lectures will follow onWednesday May 3rd.  We are pleased to be able to announce the following schedule of events. For more information visithttp://thinkingbig.fisheries.ubc.ca/index.php or email us at paulysymp@fisheries.ubc.ca.Tuesday, May 2, 2006Time Title Speaker9:00am Welcome9:05am UBC celebrating research John Hepburn9:15am Issue-driven research and interdiscipliarity Frieda GranotCapacity building9:30am Science and education: capacity building as part of the international development agendaGotthilf Hempel & Cornelia Nauen9:55am Tropical fish biology, a review John MunroLife in the Oceans10:50am Life history strategies of marine fishes Rainer Froese11:15am Evolving fisheries management Annadel Cabanban & Jose Ingles11:40am Patterns of life in upwelling oceans Philippe Cury & Andrew Bakun12:05pm Farming up and down Roger PullinEvaluating impacts on marine life1:30pm Shifting baselines: what was natural in the oceans? Jeremy Jackson1:55pm Fishing down the food web Kostas StergiouThe human side2:20pm Social research for sustainable fisheries: evaluating global impact of small scale fisheriesRatana Chuenpagdee2:45pm Social science aspects of small scale fisheries Kenneth RuddleImpacting policy3:40pm Policy impact: linking science and conservation Joshua Reichert4:05pm The scientist as communicator Nancy Baron4:30pm Linking fisheries and conservation science Carl Safina4:55pm Closing RemarksWednesday, May 3, 2006               Student SymposiumMorning Discussion sessions1:00pm Public lecture at UBC: Dr. Jeremy Jackson5:00pm Public lecture at Robson Square: Dr. Carl SafinaNote: Times listed are subject to change.For details of timing of social events and meals, see http://thinkingbig.fisheries.ubc.ca/schedule/index.php .


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