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Sea Around Us project newsletter, issue 20, November/December 2003 Forrest, Robyn; Sea Around Us Project Nov 30, 2003

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Sea Around UsThe Sea Around Us Project NewsletterIssue 20 – November/December 2003						A combined WorkingGroup meeting ofthe MillenniumEcosystem Assessment(MA) was held duringOctober in Prague, CzechRepublic with many groupsworking towards nearlycomplete draft chapters.The Prague meetingprovided a forum for thedifferent working groups(Conditions & Trends,Scenarios and Responses)to link and harmonizevarious issues and topicscovered by the MAincluding the coastal andmarine components. Themeeting certainlyhighlighted theimportance of marineenvironments to humanwell-being with issuesranging from humandiseases to freshwatersupplies.The chapters for theConditions and TrendsWorking Group are mostlyover 80% complete andthis includes the MarineChapter co-authored byseveral Sea Around Usproject members.  Mostchapters will be availablefor peer-review in earlyJanuary. This is quite anaccomplishment,considering the huge task,the time-frame and thebroad terms of reference.Considerable progress wasmade in the Scenariosworking group, with thestory-lines described inmore detail, differentiatingevents and interactionsthat may occur indeveloping vs developedcountries. The Sea AroundUs project scenario workby Villy Christensen andmyself includes using threeEcopath with Ecosim (EwE)models: the Gulf ofThailand,  the BenguelaCurrent and the CentralNorth Pacific, to look atwhat might happen tocatches and diversity underthe four scenariosproposed by the MA.The four scenarios weredeveloped to give a widespectrum of possibilitiesfor the future ranging fromhigh protectionism (‘Orderthrough Strength’) to avery enlightened societywhere learning would bean important componentof managing theenvironment (‘AdaptingMosaics’) and two others,‘Technogarden’(technology solves theproblems) and ‘GlobalOrchestration’ (global tradewithout barriers) betweenthe two extremes.The scenario work doesshow that it is not too lateto start to rebuildecosystems or to changethe current downwardtrends. In the Gulf ofThailand for example,under the four scenarios,landings initially decreasedue to the impact ofclimate change, but asappropriate policies areimplemented andtechnological solutions areapplied, landings increase(see figure overleaf ).  Thediversity of the landings,however, varies dependingon the scenario, with thediversity of the landingsdecreasing in all scenariosas fisheries in the Gulf ofThailand shift towardsmaximizing crustaceanlandings (high economicvalue) through the capturefisheries or throughaquaculture (see figure).The Sea Around Us projectscenario work has alsoresulted in the recentContinued on page 2 - MA							The Sea Around Us project newsletter ispublished by the  Fisheries Centre at the Uni-versity of British Colum-bia. Included withthe Fisheries Cen-tre’s newsletterFishBytes,six is-sues of this news-letter are pub-lished annually.Subscriptions arefree of charge.Our mailing address is:UBC Fisheries Centre, 2259 Lower Mall,  Van-couver, British Columbia, Canada, V6T 1Z4.Our fax number is (604) 822-8934, and ouremail address is SeaNotes@fisheries.ubc.ca.All queries (including reprint requests), sub-scription requests, and address changesshould be addressed to Robyn Forrest, SeaAround Us Newsletter Editor.The Sea Around Us website may be foundat www.seaaroundus.org and contains up-to-date information on the project.The Sea Around Us project is a Fisheries Centre partner-shipwith the Pew Charitable Trusts of Philadelphia, USA. TheTrusts support nonprofit activities in the areas of culture, edu-cation, the environment, health and human services, public policyand religion. Based in Philadelphia, the Trusts make strategicinvestments to help organisations and citizens develop practi-cal solutions to difficult problems. In 2000, with approximately$4.8 billion in assets, the Trusts committed over $235 millionto 302 nonprofit organisations.MA - Continued from page 1Top:  Simulated change in landings in the Gulf of Thailand from 2000 to 2050 underthe four MA scenarios described on p1. Bottom:  Simulated change in the diversity of species for the trophic level > 3 landedfrom the Gulf of Thailand 2000 to 2050.publication of  The Future forFisheries   (Science, November21 2003).  In this article, wedescribed what may bepossible in the future based onthe United NationsEnvironment Program’s GlobalEnvironment Outlook 3 (GEO3)scenarios. Ecopath with Ecosimwas also used to simulatevarious futures resulting fromdifferent economic andenvironment policies.EwE is one of a fewmodeling tools thatresearchers can use tolook at howecosystems mightchange given aspecific economic orsocial policy. The SeaAround Us project’swork in the MA has ledmany of our coll-eagues to realize thepower of this softwarefor looking at thefuture of marine eco-systems and no doubtwe will be makinggreater use of it as weexplore other questions such asclimate change. So watch thisspace for further updateson the Future for Fisheries.EwE is one ofa fewmodelingtools thatresearcherscan use tolook at howecosystemsmightchangegiven aspecificeconomic orsocial policy.	 						G46We are pleased to announce that DrReg Watson, a senior research fellowwith the Sea Around Us project, hasjust been appointed to serve on the MarineFishes Specialist Sub-Committee of theCommittee on the Status of EndangeredWildlife in Canada (COSEWIC).  This four-yearappointment will involve his helping to formrecommendations on the status of manymarine species, including a number ofcommercial Pacific rockfishes.	 !" ! !# !This conference wasorganized by JeremyJackson and his group atScripps Institution ofOceanography in San Diego,California. The meeting tookplace during November 14-17,2003.  Presentations were byinvitation only.  There were fivesessions each comprising aplenary talk and discussionfollowed by panel presentationsand another open discussion.Topics for the first two sessionsfocused on fundamentalquestions about the past: (1) whyis the past important? and (2)how do we know about thepast? The next two sessionsconcentrated on case-studies inwhich knowledge of the recentpast plays a crucial role in ourunderstanding of dynamics ofthe system today: (3) cod and (4)sardines and anchovies. The finalsession focused on howincorporating knowledge aboutthe past can build a better futurefor the world’s oceans: (5) howcan we use the past to informthe future?Daniel Pauly gave one of the fiveplenary talks.  Using BarbaraTuchman’s  ‘March of the Folly’idea as a metaphor for the recenthistory and future of fisheries, heset the stage for a livelydiscussion of ‘How do we knowabout the past?’  Other plenarytalks were given by the followingscientists: Carl Safina of the BlueOcean Institute; Alec MacCall ofthe Southwest Fisheries ScienceCentre, NOAA; Jeffrey Bolster ofthe University of NewHampshire; Enric Sala of Scripps;and Steve Palumbi of StanfordUniversity.I was on the panel for Session 4:Cod: an extreme case ofoverfishing, together withRansom Myers, Bonnie McCayand Robert Steneck. TheCanadian part of the story ofthe extreme overexploitation ofcod was nicely told first byProfessor Myers, who clearlydemonstrated that northerncod has indeed sufferedextreme overexploitation overtime, and second by me, with astrong economic explanation ofwhy this pattern of extremeoverexploitation had occurred.I laid the blame on bothineffective management of codand the way thepresentgenerationvalues codbenefits. Thelatter leads tothe ‘front-loading’ of thebenefits fromcod, theconsequence ofwhich is extremeoverexploitation.I suggested thatthe solution tothis problem isfor society tocleverly designand impose managementschemes that are based on bothrights and responsibilities.Ratana Chuenpagdee of StFrancis Xavier University, aFisheries Centre AdjunctProfessor, gave a panelpresentation about her study onthe hard choices facing themanagers of Chesapeake Bay, ifthey want a bountiful future forthe bay.A non-academic highlight of themeeting was the presentation ofa mini-film on conservationawareness based on DanielPauly’s  ‘Shifting baselinesyndrome’ idea. The film useshumor to educate the public onthe need to ensure the long termsustainable use of our naturaland environmentalresources.... the waythe presentgenerationvalues codbenefitsleads to‘front-loading’ ofthebenefitsfrom cod,theconsequenceof which isextremeover-exploitation	"						$%		#$!The coast is the place to be!Although 38% of theworld’s population livewithin a 100km of the coast, thehabitable areas of the coastrepresents a much smallerproportion of the world’s totalland area. Much of the world’sGross National Product (GNP) isgenerated along coastlines; inmany areas of the world, theinfant mortality rate is lower onthe coast;  and the growth ofcities is much greater. Coastalhabitats, such as mangrovesand estuaries, are also closelylinked to communities. Forexample, 35% of the world’spopulation lives within 100 kmof at least one estuary.Critical habitats such as coral reefs, mangroves and seagrasses (shaded in grey) that are protected by MPAs (circles andpolygons) in Southern Florida and the Northeastern Caribbean.Over the last year the SeaAround Us project has accessedseveral databases includingsocial (population, cities, infantmortality), economic (GNP),ecological (coastal habitats andmarine protected areas (MPA))to study of the importance ofmarine resources tocommunities. Geographicalinformation systems (GIS) havebeen used extensively to studyand map the connectionsbetween marine systems andhuman populations.   On theopposite page we list someinteresting facts about thecoast and communities thathave been derived from thesedatabases.The figure below is an example ofour efforts to map critical habitatsprotected in MPAs (Florida andthe Caribbean). Estimates ofhabitats that are included in MPAsglobally tend to be under-estimated for seagrasses andmangroves since estimates  arebased on surveys and not allMPAs have been surveyedcompletely.   Sea Around Usproject members, notably MsLouisa Wood, in collaborationwith Worldwide Fund for Nature(WWF) and United NationsEnvironment Program –WorldConservation Monitoring Centre(UNEP-WCMC) are working toimprove this informationover the next 12 months.35% of theworld’spopulationlives within100 km of atleast oneestuary	% 						G46&!	# 	'	() 	&$		Not surprisingly, the  200-nautical mile buffermost nations claim fortheir exclusive useencompasses some of the mostproductive parts of the world’soceans. Here, nutrients from theland are swept into shallowcoastal shelves or upwelling ofGlobal landing with Exclusive Economic Zone areas in million tonnes.Source: Spatially allocated landings data from the Sea Around Us project extracted from FAO and other sources.nutrient-rich water occurs,resulting in high productivity.The relative success of the hugeforage fish fisheries such as thePeruvian anchoveta versusoffshore tuna landings causevariations in the proportion ofthe world’s landings that aretaken within EEZ areas. Since1950, an average of 89% ofglobal landings has come fromthe areas currently claimed asEEZ (or their counterpart,Exclusive Fishing Zones). Thisproportion has decreasedslightly with the failure ofinshore stocks.Coastal Factoids% of the world’s populationliving within 100 km of:All coasts             38Coral reefs          12Estuaries              27Mangroves         17Seagrass beds   19MPAs                    19% of MPAs that include knownareas of:Mangroves           17Coral reefs            25Estuaries               17Seagrass beds     25Infant Mortality Rate (deaths per 1000 births):Within 50 km of the coast          23Inland                                               41Approximately 60% of the world’s GNP is generated within 50 km of the coast.... an averageof 89% ofgloballandingscome fromthe areascurrentlyclaimed asEEZ	'						*++,	-.! .%!"/,0/1.	#"*++,	(	)		The Ocean ManagementResearch Network (OMRN)is a Canada-basedinterdisciplinary group ofresearchers, managers andpolicy-makers involved inocean and coastalmanagement. The major aim ofthe network, which is jointlyfunded by Fisheries and OceansCanada and the Social Sciencesand Humanities ResearchCouncil of Canada, is toestablish links and collaborationand thereby improve themanagement of Canada’soceans. The OMRN held itssecond annual nationalconference in Ottawa inNovember 2003. The formalproceedings were a mix ofpaper sessions, a poster session,and a set of 13 concurrentinteractive workshops. Therewere also many opportunitiesfor informal interaction andnetworking over lunch.Three members of the FisheriesCentre attended theconference. Nigel Haggan of theCoasts Under Stress projectargued that the key challengein oceans management is howto build collectiveunderstanding of theproductive potential of themarine environment. Back tothe Future ecosystem models(www.fisheries.ubc.ca/projects/btf/) show that past ecosystemstates could sustain muchgreater flows of economic,ecological and cultural benefits.This makes a compelling casefor reinvestment in naturalcapital at a time whendepletion of wild resources hasfocussed attention on therevenue potential of oil and gasand salmon farming. The socialcapital developed throughcollaboration of multipleinterests on model building andvaluation increases thelikelihood of agreement onrebuilding targets.Dale Marsden gave apresentation in theEnvironmental and CoastalEconomics workshop (co-produced by the rest of theFisheries Economics ResearchUnit: www.feru.org) on researchneeds in environmentalvaluation on the West Coast.The non-market valuesassociated with BritishColumbia’s coasts and oceanshave not been well-quantified.He suggested that researchshould be directed toward suchvaluation, especially as it relatesto First Nations treatynegotiations and the potentialimpacts of aquaculture and oiland gas development.  He alsopresented a poster on the workthat he and Ussif RashidSumaila are doing on flows offisheries products and receivedencouraging feedback frommany attendees. The first phaseof this work will be publishedthis year.Dirk Zeller, a member of the SeaAround Us Project(www.seaaroundus.org),attended the SustainabilityNode meeting prior to theconference, and presented apaper entitled “From MareLiberum to Mare Reservarum:Why Canada needs to changeconcepts and approaches toocean use”.  Dirk’s presentationattracted considerable interestand positive debate. Ithighlighted the need forCanada to realize and engage inthe changes that are required inthe way the governmentmanages marine resources andtheir use. Dirk also attended theOcean Governance workshop,which involved manystimulating discussions andattracted participants from awide range of disciplines. Theworkshop focused on how sucha group could contribute toinnovative research and policydevelopment in Canada.Overall, the conference was agood experience. There was ahealthy mix of people fromacademia, government, FirstNations, the private sector, andnon-governmentalorganizations. As such, thisconference provided a greatopportunity to meet andnetwork with people whomfisheries scientists at theFisheries Centre would notnormally encounter.More information on the OMRNand their National Conference isavailable at their web site:www.omrn.ca.There was ahealthy mixof peoplefromacademia,government,FirstNations, theprivatesector, andnon-governmentalorganizations.

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