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Climate Futures Kingdon, Alicia 2020-05-13

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ICLIMATE FUTURESAlicia Kingdon Graduate Project 12019 Kees Lokman /supervisorIIIIIRELEASE FORMLandscape ArchitectureSchool of Architecture and Landscape ArchitectureUniversity of British ColumbiaAlicia Kingdon CLIMATE FUTURESIn presenting this report in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Master of Architecture and Landscape Architecture, University of British Columbia, I agree that UBC may make this work freely available for reference or study. I give permission for copying the report for educational purposes in accordance with copyright laws.IVABSTRACTClimate change, rapid urbanization, and autonomous vehicles are a few examples of the forces change that will have a significant impact on the projects that landscape architects will touch. The influence of these forces on our world remains unknown, and urban futures remain speculative. While the problems of climate change appear dire, present an opportunity for the landscape architecture discipline to engage in new scales of design. However, as designers are forced to engage with complex design problems of the contemporary era, the field now requires new forms of design methodology. Architects and Landscape Architects in the field have begun to employ a new methodology, scenario planning, to provide a framework for how to design in these disruptive conditions and help frame design solutions for an unknown future.This project proposal first seeks to understand the scenario planning methodology. Then it explores the application of the scenario method in the field of landscape architecture. Finally, a design project is proposed for the Lower Fraser River in Metro Vancouver, which seeks to design for an extreme climate future, envisioning the futures of this region at risk.VTABLE OF CONTENTSPart IProject Statement     1Scenarios Defined     2History of Scenarios    7Scenario Method     13Scenarios for Climate Futures   21Precedent     29DredgeFest California    31Delta RAC     37Rising Tide DLAND Studio    39Site Analysis     43Plan of Work     61 Part II: Designing Climate Futures  67  VILIST OF FIGURESFigure 1: Scenario Typology     6Figure 2: Scenario Methodology Timeline    9Figure 3: Summary of Scenario Approaches   14Figure 4: 2x2 Matrix      19Figure 5: Future Cone     26Figure 6: Dredge Research Process    31Figure 7: Dredge Scenario 1 // Drowned Coast   33Figure 8: Climate Scenarios from Delta-RAC   35Figure 9: Delta-RAC 2x2 Matrix    37Figure 10: Delta-RAC Key Indicators    38Figure 11: New Urban Ground    39Figure 12: New Urban Ground Site Sections   40Figure 13: Fraser River Valley     45Figure 14: Deep Sea Navigation Map    47Figure 15: Tidal flats at Brunswick Point in Ladner, B.C.  50Figure 16: Aerial of Fraser River Flood    53Figure 17: Fraser River Flooding    53Figure 18: Fraser River Flood Ad    53Figure 19: Deep Sea Navigation     54Figure 20: Metro Vancouver 2015 Industrial Inventory  56Figure 21: A great blue heron skims across the water, with Vancouver’s Roberts Bank port in the background     57Figure 22: Snow Geese migrate North across the Fraser River  57Figure 23: 1m Flood Scenario     67Figure 24: Flood Scenarios     69      (data from the Fraser Basin Council)Figure 25: Site Plan      73VIIFigure 26: Environmental Mapping    76Figure 27: Urban Fabric Mapping   76 Figure 28: Cultural Heritage Mapping   78Figure 29: Food Production Mapping   78Figure 30: Proposed Plan: 2100   79Figure 31: Food Production Phasing   82Figure 32: Dike Infrastructure Phasing   84Figure 33: Environmental Phasing   86Figure 34: East Dike 2020: Present Conditions  87 Figure 35: Hügelkultur    89Figure 36: East Dike 2050    91Figure 37: East Dike 2050: Flood Event   91Figure 38: East Dike 2100: Low Tide   93Figure 39: East Dike 2100: High Tide   93Figure 40: West Dike 2020: Present Conditions  95Figure 41: West Dike 2050: Flood Event (Plan)  95Figure 42: West Dike 2050: Flood Event (Section)  99Figure 43: West Dike 2050: Proposed Height   99Figure 44: Mud Motor    101Figure 45: Present Conditions: Mud Motor  103Figure 46: 2050: Mud Motor    103Figure 47: 2100: Mud Motor    103Figure 48: West Dike: Present Conditions  105Figure 49: West Dike: 2100: Wave Barrier  105Figure 50: Steveston Harbour: Present Conditions  107Figure 51: Steveston Harbour: 2100   1091PROJECT STATEMENTClimate change was once thought of as a distant threat that could be addressed through legislative changes and local action. However, it has become increasingly clear that we can no longer stop the impacts of climate change. At best, we can mitigate climate-induced forces of change, and prepare for the dire realities that scientists have predicted for the previous three decades.However, uncertainty in climate science means the influence of these forces on our world remains unknown. While the problems of climate change appear dire, present an opportunity for the design discipline to engage with new scales of action. As designers are forced to engage with complex design problems of the contemporary era, the field now requires new forms of design methodology. Architects and Landscape Architects in the field have begun to employ a new methodology to provide a framework for how to design in these disruptive conditions and help frame design solutions for an unknown future.This graduate project suggests that scenario planning —leveraged in the fields of military defense, business, and spatial planning —is an underutilized methodology in the field of landscape architects. During times of uncertainty, including nuclear war, the oil embargo, and global economic collapse, other disciplines have turned to scenarios to help envision the future and inform decision-makers in the present. Now climate change presents society with a future of considerable uncertainty. 2Using a literature review of existing scenario methodologies and precedent studies of landscape architecture visualization strategies, this seeks to answer the following research questions and address the following objectives:RESEARCH QUESTIONS:1. What established methods of scenario planning can be applied to envision climate futures?2. How might landscape architects contribute to the visualization of climate futures, promoting public engagement, and acting act a catalyst for climate action?OBJECTIVES:1. Identify best practices in scenario planning across disciplines.2. Explore how visual representation can be leveraged as a public engagement tool for climate response.3. Identify a scenario planning methodology to assist landscape architects in envisioning a climate future. Scenarios are the product of future studies, or Futurology and remain one of its most used methods. Future studies is a multidisciplinary field that contains a vast array of approaches devoted to understanding possible, probable, and preferred futures.“The scenario is the archetypical product of futures studies because it embodies the central principles of the discipline:• It is vitally important that we think deeply and creatively about the future, or else we run the risk of being surprised and unprepared. • At the same time, the future is uncertain, so we must prepare for multiple plausible futures, not just the one we expect to happen.”1Across disciplines exists a great deal of research and work on scenario analysis, and consequently, there is no consensus on its definition. Many experts in the field rely on the creator of scenario thinking, Herman Kahn’s definition of scenarios from his seminal book The Year 2000. A Framework for Speculation on the Next Thirty-Three Years. In The Year 2000, Kahn states a scenario is ‘‘a set of hypothetical events set in the future constructed to clarify a possible chain of causal events as well as their decision points.’’2 The scenario is an ‘eclectic method,’ which combines tools and methods from an array of disciplines, including statistics, science, film, and business.3 Generally, scenarios provide a set of disparate visions of the future, which serve to help us envision the future and inform how we can act in the present.4 They take multiple events and driving forces and synthesizes them into a hypothetical, comprehensive, and coherent future narrative, which includes a plausible account of events that occurred to bring us from present-day into the future scenario. Scenarios are schematic, not precise. Scenarios do not express probability, but rather bound uncertainty and detail a range of possible futures.“Scenarios are useful because they give us distance from the present, open up the future, and allow the creation of  alternative futures.” - Mietzner and Reger.SCENARIOS DEFINED1  Peter Bishop, Andy Hines, and Terry Collins, “The Current State of  Scenario Development: An Overview of  Techniques,” Foresight 9, no. 1 (January 1, 2007): 5–25, 2  Herman Kahn and Anthony J. Wiener, The Year 2000: A Framework for Speculation on the next Thirty-Three Years (New York: Macmillan, 1967).3  Christian Salewski, Dutch New Worlds (Rot-terdam: nai010 publishers, 2013).4  Mietzner and Reger.4Scenarios are not about predicting the future and determining an end state; rather, the purpose of scenarios is to provoke a new way of thinking and learn how decisions in the present may inform the future.5 Employing this methodology of scenarios allows us to examine uncertainties and expand our thinking about what the future may hold. Scenarios are powerful tools to explore and spark dialogues about our future. Advocates of scenario planning argue that if not challenged, organizations tend to assume that the future will be similar to the past.6 Examining the future through scenario analysis can challenge our assumptions about the future, broaden perspectives, and raise questions, allowing us to discover our biases and expose our blind spots.7  Presently many organizations leverage scenarios planning a framework to examine complex systems, change behaviors, and initiate a dialogue for how to disturb the present.  Research on the scenario methodology has shown that the application of scenarios can help organizations:• Prepare for the unknown by identifying new ‘issues and problems that may arise in the future.’• Encourage organizational flexibility and nimbleness• Promote innovation• Influence decision-makers.• Initiate a public debate8 9 105  Paul J. H. Schoe-maker, “When and How to Use Scenario Planning: A Heuristic Approach with Illustration,” Journal of  Forecasting 10, no. 6 (1991): 549–64.6  Phil Hadridge, “Thinking about the Future: Guidelines for Strategic Foresight,” Foresight 10, no. 1 (January 1, 2008): 79–80, 7  Rastandeh, Amin. “Challenges and Poten-tials in Using Alternative Landscape Futures during Climate Change:: A Liter-ature Review and Survey Study.” Urbani Izziv 26, no. 2 (2015): 83–102. 8  Amer, Muhammad, Tugrul U. Daim, and Anton-ie Jetter. “A Review of  Sce-nario Planning.” Futures 46 (February 1, 2013): 23–40. 9  Celeste Amorim Var-um and Carla Melo, “Direc-tions in Scenario Planning Literature – A Review of  the Past Decades,” Futures, Learning the Future Faster, 42, no. 4 (May 1, 2010): 355–69.10  Sarpong and Maclean, “Scenario Thinking.”5TYPOLOGY OF SCENARIOSBorjeson et al. categorize the existing studies of scenario planning into the three main categories of future studies that explore predictive, exploratory, and normative.11 This typology of scenario planning is based on the questions a user might want to post about the future:1. What will happen?2. What can happen?3. How can a specific target be reached?PREDICTIVE SCENARIOS – WHAT WILL HAPPEN?The goal of the predictive scenario model method is to predict what will happen in the future, developing scenarios that describe a probable future. The purpose of this scenario methodology is to understand what events are likely to occur in the future and then make a plan to adapt to these events.12 “The concepts of probability and likelihood are closely related to predictive scenarios since trying to foresee what will happen in the future in one way or another has to relate to the (subjectively) estimated likelihood of the outcome.”13 This methodology is useful to decision-makers as these predictions can make them “aware of problems that are likely to arise if some condition on the development is fulfilled.”14EXPLORATORY SCENARIOS – WHAT CAN HAPPEN?The goal of the exploratory scenario is “to explore situations or developments that are regarded as possible to happen, usually from a variety of perspectives.”15 The exploratory scenario develops possible futures, which “can help explore developments that the intended target group in one way or another may have to take into consideration.”16 SCENARIOS DEFINED11  Lena Börjeson et al., “Scenario Types and Techniques: Towards a User’s Guide,” Futures 38, no. 7 (September 1, 2006): 723–39.12  Philip W. F van Notten, “Scenario Devel-opment: A Typology of  Approaches,” n.d.13  Börjeson et al., “Scenario Types and Tech-niques.”14  Börjeson et al.15  Börjeson et al.16  Börjeson et al.6Figure 1: Scenario TypologyDriving force 1 - HighDriving force 1 - LowDriving force 2 - LowScenario quardrant 1Scenario quardrant 2Scenario quardrant 3Scenario quardrant 4Driving force 2 - HighScenarios(predictive)Probable Possible PreferableForecasts What-if External Strategic Preserving Transforming(explorative) (normative)Exploratory scenarios are based on four assumptions:• “the future is not only a continuation of past relationships and dynamics but can also be shaped by human choice and action• the future cannot be foreseen; however, exploration of the future can inform the decisions of the present• there is not one possible future only, uncertainty calls for a variety of futures mapping a ‘possibility space’• the development of scenarios involves both rational analysis and subjective judgement; it therefore requires interactive and participative methods”17NORMATIVE SCENARIOS – HOW CAN A SPECIFIC TARGET BE REACHED?Normative scenarios describe a preferred, and achievable future. The methodology includes norms and values in the future scenario. “Normative scenarios are goal-directed and respond to policy planning concerns in order to achieve desired targets.”18 This methodology details a preferred future, which often works as a “guiding vision policymakers and the nation, providing a basis for action.”1917  Frans Berkhout and Julia Hertin, “Foresight Fu-tures Scenarios: Developing and Applying a Participative Strategic Planning Tool,” Greener Management Inter-national 2002 (2002): 37–52.18  Muhammad Amer, Tugrul U. Daim, and Anton-ie Jetter, “A Review of  Sce-nario Planning,” Futures 46 (February 1, 2013): 23–40.19	 	Ron	Bradfield	et	al.,	“The Origins and Evolution of  Scenario Techniques in Long Range Business Planning,” Futures 37, no. 8 (October 1, 2005): 795–812.HISTORY OF SCENARIOSORIGIN OF SCENARIOS IN MILITARY PLANNINGThe first forms of scenario planning emerged in the military post-WWII as a method to respond to the sudden and extreme uncertainty brought on by the war. Nuclear war, which occurred in the final weeks of WWII marked a significant advancement in military science. This advancement, coupled with rising global tensions, created much uncertainty regarding the future of military planning.20 Post-WWII, the US Department of Defence, turned to future studies to inform the allocation of funding for new weapons systems. In the 1950s and 1960s, military analyst Herman Kahn of the RAND Corporation proposed a new technique of future studies to improve military-strategic analysis and decision making.21 The approach, coined “future-now,” used scenario analysis, to help to stimulate thinking about complex systems and the future, to help leaders “think about the unthinkable.22 Kahn defined the scenario as ‘‘a set of hypothetical events set in the future constructed to clarify a possible chain of causal events as well as their decision points.’’23 He borrowed the term scenario from the theatre and film, which at the time was synonymous with screenplay because of its emphasis on narrative.24 The methodology relied heavily on storytelling, combining detailed analyses with imagination, creating reports as people might write them in the future.25 The rise of nuclear weapons research during the Cold War compounded uncertainty regarding the future, which spurred the growth of military analysts and think tanks that specialized in scenario thinking. Kahn helped increase the use of scenario techniques during this time by insisting “the best way to prevent nuclear war was to examine the possible consequences of nuclear war and widely published the results.”26 As a result, the new technique was used in the development of public policy in the military and to help envision the future of nuclear war. The RAND Corporation, the Hudson Institute, and Stanford Research Institute ‘Futures Group’ (SRI) group were among the many research groups 20	 	Ron	Bradfield	et	al.,	“The Origins and Evolution of  Scenario Techniques in Long Range Business Planning,” Futures 37, no. 8 (October 1, 2005): 795–812.21  Christian Salewski, Dutch New Worlds (Rot-terdam: nai010 publishers, 2013).22  Dana Mietzner and Guido Reger, “Advantag-es and Disadvantages of  Scenario Approaches for Strategic Foresight,” SSRN Scholarly Paper (Rochester, NY: Social Science Research Network, 2005).23  Muhammad Amer, Tugrul U. Daim, and Anton-ie Jetter, “A Review of  Sce-nario Planning,” Futures 46 (February 1, 2013): 23–40.24  Philip W. F van Notten, “Scenario Devel-opment: A Typology of  Approaches,” n.d.25  Thomas J. Chermack, Susan A. Lynham, and Wen-dy EA Ruona, “A Review of  Scenario Planning Lit-erature,” Futures Research Quarterly 17, no. 2 (2001): 7–32.26  Chermack.8that specialized in scenario planning as a military planning tool. These think tanks became the leaders in scenario thinking in the United States, pioneering many techniques used in scenario analysis today.27FRENCH SPATIAL PLANNING AT DATARWhile historians often attribute Kahn as the creator of scenario planning, French futurist and philosopher, Gaston Berger, developed similar methods of scenario planning in Europe. He founded the Centre d’Etudes Prospectives, where he developed the scenario methodology, named ‘La Prospective,’ which was used to create scenarios to inform public policy at French governmental organization known as DATAR (the Office for Regional Planning and Development).28 Unlike its application in the United States, the use of scenarios in France, in the 1960s and 1970s, was more commonly used for public sector planning than corporate decision making.29SCENARIOS AS A BUSINESS STRATEGYThroughout the Cold War, the government demonstrated that the use of scenario thinking could stimulate creative thinking, inform decision-making, and initiate a public dialogue. As a result, the 1960s saw a growth in the number of research groups and think tanks specializing in scenario planning, employing this technique in new sectors beyond the area of defense. In 1961, Herman Kahn founded the Hudson Institute, which specialized in writing stories about the future to help people consider the “unthinkable.” At the Hudson Institute, Kahn broadened the application of scenario planning to social forecasting, public policy analysis, and corporate decision-making.30 This approach has become ubiquitous in business management and marketing, most famously associated with the Royal Dutch/Shell Group, who successfully and notably incorporated scenario planning into their business strategy.31 27	 	Bradfield	et	al.,	28  Amer, Daim, and Jet-ter, “A Review of  Scenario Planning.”29  Amer, Daim, and Jet-ter, “A Review of  Scenario Planning.”9 HISTORY OF SCENARIOSdesigning in disruptionSCENARIO PLANNING BEGINS IN MILITARY SECTORFUTURE THINKING TRANSITIONS TO BUSINESS SECTOR190019101920193019401950196019701980199020002010202020302040World Human PopulationUrban PopulationSpecies Extinction+ 2008 FINANCIAL CRISISthe global financial crisis of 2008 was a severe world wide economic crisis. Many economists argue that this  was the most serious financial crisis since the Great  Depression of the 1930.+ 9/11 ATTACKS The terrorists attacks on the World Trade Centres created an immediate impacts on the business environment. Stock prices dove and oil and gas prices rose. Heighted global security and intelligence efforts compacted the economic uncertainty."Becasue the oil shock was so devastating to views of a stable future, by the late 1970s the majority of the Fortune 1000 corporations had adopted scenario planning in one form or another" + 1973 OIL CRISISWORLD WAR II 1939-1945“World War Two had been an extraordinary catalyst for the study of complex systems. Just as the war had mingled social scientists in unprecedented numbers, it had also assembled physicists, mathematicians, logicians and  physiologists to work on problems beyond the range of any individual discipline. These were . . . students of the nature of complex systems and developers of wars to manage them more effectively by translating them into mathematical models ...”- In The Age of Heretics, Art Kleiner (1996)+ COLD WAR 1947-1991+ WWII“military spending increased to support the Viet-nam War - an interest began to grow in findings ways to look into the future and plan for changes in society. ” + 1955 to 1975  VIETNAM WAR+ 1969 MOON LANDINGJames Hansen’s1988 testimony to Congress, alerted the public to the dangers of global warming.+ 1988 CLIMATE CHANGE TESTIMONY TO CONGRESS POST 9/11 UNCERTAINTY Following the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 there was a  surge in the use of scenario planning after 9/11. “38% of firms reported using formal techniques for spinning out what-if scenarios to anticipate potential crises and disasters, as well as for creating simulation models for business growth.... Our results show that companies recognize the greater opportunity and risk that come with globalization and the increasing need to anticipate crises and develop robust contingency plans.”-Harvard Business Review2000s SCENARIOS BECOME A CORPORATE STRATEGY“One U.S. government report from early 2000s estimated that 85% of the scenario studies surveyed by the report’s authors were based on or derived from the Royal Dutch Shell process, sug-gesting that Shell’s experience contains lessons relevant for anyone—investors, corporations, governments, nongovernmental organizations, and others—trying to engage with the future.”- Harvard Business Review1991 - SCHWARTZIN THE ART OF THE LONG VIEW PUBLISHEDArt of the Long View repopularizes 1970s Shell Method.2018 - IPCC RELEASES SCNEARIO REPORT ON CLIMATE CHANGE1991 - SCHWARTZIN THE ART OF THE LONG VIEW PUBLISHEDArt of the Long View repopularizes 1970s Shell Method.1961 - THE HUDSON INSTITUTE FOUNDEDStrategist Herman Kahn founded the Hudson Institute, which specialized in writing stories about the future to help people consider the "unthinkable". The Hudson Institute helped manage strategic transitions to the future in the areas of defense, international relations, economics, health care, technology, culture, and law.“He gained most notoriety around the idea that the best way to prevent nuclear war was to examine the possible consequences of nuclear war and widely publish the results (Kahn, 1963).”LATE 1960S - SHELL ‘FUTURES’ OPERATION - YEAR 2000 REPORTThe company‘s UPM 6-year timeline for future planning was deemed too limiting for business decisions - moved toward other future thinking. Based this new approach on Herman Kahn’s scenario approach. Shell shifts to scenario planning by undertaking the “futures” operation.  Shell‘s first report under this initiative is the “Year 2000” study report, where they began to look at long-term outlooks in the form of alternative futures using a variety of methods, from straight-line numeric forecasts to literature searches on utopias and dystopia.1970 - Founding of non-proft organization the Club of Rome The NGO tracked five key variables - population, food production, industrial production, pollution, and natural resources. In 1972 the organization publishes “Limits to Growth”1940s - FUTURE-NOW THINKINGKahn of the RAND Corportation (1940) pioneered “future-now thinking.”  This technique combined detailed analyses with imagination. 1965 - SHELL UPM - 6 YEAR TIMELINEShell implemented Unified Planning Machinery (UPM) technique. The method was developed to enable Shell to plan for future events, with a horizon of six years.WWII - SCENARIO PLANNINGFirst forms of scenario planning originated in the armed forces during the second world war.  The RAND corporation helped carry on this work post WWII. LATE 1970s - DELPHI TECHNIQUE ADOPTED The Delphi technique, developed by the RAND Corporation became part of formal corporate planning techniques in the 1970s.LATE 1950s - DELPHI TECHNIQUE DEVELOPED The Delphi technique was developed by the RAND Corporation. The Delphi technique was based on asking  various experts to estimate individually the probability that certain events will occur in the future.  The goal is to get them to converge on future views by comparing the answers with those of the other experts.1972/3 - SHELL ADOPTS SCENARIO PLANNING AS A PERMANENT STRATEGY 1988 - SHELL PREDICTS CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS IMPACTS1970s - ROYAL DUTCH SHELL/GLOBAL BUSINESS NETWORK (GBN)MATRIX APPROACH CREATEDDeveloped by Shell’s Pierre Wack.LATE 1970s - SCENARIO PLANNING IS WIDELY ADOPTED IN BUSINESSAfter the oil embargo proved to be a deep shock to previously stable views of the future, many companies began undertaking future thinking work. By the late 1970s roughly three-quarters of Fortune 1000 companies had scenario planning as a business strategy adopted. 1969 TO 1970 - SHELL PREDICTS OIL CRISIS Using a Horizon Year Planning framework, Shell executives used scenario planning to look forward to 1985.Their report stated that a stable economy, were oil was based on predictable factors of supply and demand, would not continue. The report suggested a shift in power from the oil companies to the oil producers in the Middle East, would could result in a major increase in oil prices.1947 -  STANFORD RESEARCH INSTITUTEThe Stanford Research Institute (SRI) began long-range thinking,  incorporating operations research, economics and political strategy alongside hard science and military consulting.1960s - STANFORD RESEARCH INSTITUTEThe Stanford Research Intitute began offering long-range planning for businesses that considered poliical econonic and research forces as primary drivers of business development.1968 - THE YEAR 2000: A FRAMEWORK FOR SPECULATION ON THE NEXT THIRTY-THREE YEARSStrategist Herman Kahn publishes his book, “The Year 2000.”  The publication is one of the first known definitions of scenario planning. Kahn defines scenario in his book as ‘‘a set of hypothetical events set in the future constructed to clarify a possible chain of causal events as well as their decision points.’’1980s - RESEARCH LINKS CORPORATE SCENARIO PLANNING ADOPTION TO GLOBAL UNCERTAINTYThe article “Scenarios in Europe—Who uses them and why?”  by Malaska et. al (1984) indicates that there is a link between adoption of scenario planning techniques and uncertainty, unpredictability and instability of the overall business environment.Make It Plausible, Not Probable“But, of course, you can never identify all the forces at play. If you could, and see their interac-tions, then real prediction of the future would be simple. This is never likely to be possible, and furthermore, there are some situations that balance on a hair’s breadth.”—Jimmy Davidson, Head of Shell group planning 1967–1976 (Harvard Business Review)“Un fait mal observé est plus pernicieux qu’un mauvais raisonnement.” (A fact poorly observed is more treacherous than faulty reasoning.)- Paul Valéry, the twentieth-cen-tury French philosopherFigure 2: Scenario Methodology Timeline10designing in disruptionSCENARIO PLANNING BEGINS IN MILITARY SECTORFUTURE THINKING TRANSITIONS TO BUSINESS SECTOR190019101920193019401950196019701980199020002010202020302040World Human PopulationUrban PopulationSpecies Extinction+ 2008 FINANCIAL CRISISthe global financial crisis of 2008 was a severe world wide economic crisis. Many economists argue that this  was the most serious financial crisis since the Great  Depression of the 1930.+ 9/11 ATTACKS The terrorists attacks on the World Trade Centres created an immediate impacts on the business environment. Stock prices dove and oil and gas prices rose. Heighted global security and intelligence efforts compacted the economic uncertainty."Becasue the oil shock was so devastating to views of a stable future, by the late 1970s the majority of the Fortune 1000 corporations had adopted scenario planning in one form or another" + 1973 OIL CRISISWORLD WAR II 1939-1945“World War Two had been an extraordinary catalyst for the study of complex systems. Just as the war had mingled social scientists in unprecedented numbers, it had also assembled physicists, mathematicians, logicians and  physiologists to work on problems beyond the range of any individual discipline. These were . . . students of the nature of complex systems and developers of wars to manage them more effectively by translating them into mathematical models ...”- In The Age of Heretics, Art Kleiner (1996)+ COLD WAR 1947-1991+ WWII“military spending increased to support the Viet-nam War - an interest began to grow in findings ways to look into the future and plan for changes in society. ” + 1955 to 1975  VIETNAM WAR+ 1969 MOON LANDINGJames Hansen’s1988 testimony to Congress, alerted the public to the dangers of global warming.+ 1988 CLIMATE CHANGE TESTIMONY TO CONGRESS POST 9/11 UNCERTAINTY Following the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 there was a  surge in the use of scenario planning after 9/11. “38% of firms reported using formal techniques for spinning out what-if scenarios to anticipate potential crises and disasters, as well as for creating simulation models for business growth.... Our results show that companies recognize the greater opportunity and risk that come with globalization and the increasing need to anticipate crises and develop robust contingency plans.”-Harvard Business Review2000s SCENARIOS BECOME A CORPORATE STRATEGY“One U.S. government report from early 2000s estimated that 85% of the scenario studies surveyed by the report’s authors were based on or derived from the Royal Dutch Shell process, sug-gesting that Shell’s experience contains lessons relevant for anyone—investors, corporations, governments, nongovernmental organizations, and others—trying to engage with the future.”- Harvard Business Review1991 - SCHWARTZIN THE ART OF THE LONG VIEW PUBLISHEDArt of the Long View repopularizes 1970s Shell Method.2018 - IPCC RELEASES SCNEARIO REPORT ON CLIMATE CHANGE1991 - SCHWARTZIN THE ART OF THE LONG VIEW PUBLISHEDArt of the Long View repopularizes 1970s Shell Method.1961 - THE HUDSON INSTITUTE FOUNDEDStrategist Herman Kahn founded the Hudson Institute, which specialized in writing stories about the future to help people consider the "unthinkable". The Hudson Institute helped manage strategic transitions to the future in the areas of defense, international relations, economics, health care, technology, culture, and law.“He gained most notoriety around the idea that the best way to prevent nuclear war was to examine the possible consequences of nuclear war and widely publish the results (Kahn, 1963).”LATE 1960S - SHELL ‘FUTURES’ OPERATION - YEAR 2000 REPORTThe company‘s UPM 6-year timeline for future planning was deemed too limiting for business decisions - moved toward other future thinking. Based this new approach on Herman Kahn’s scenario approach. Shell shifts to scenario planning by undertaking the “futures” operation.  Shell‘s first report under this initiative is the “Year 2000” study report, where they began to look at long-term outlooks in the form of alternative futures using a variety of methods, from straight-line numeric forecasts to literature searches on utopias and dystopia.1970 - Founding of non-proft organization the Club of Rome The NGO tracked five key variables - population, food production, industrial production, pollution, and natural resources. In 1972 the organization publishes “Limits to Growth”1940s - FUTURE-NOW THINKINGKahn of the RAND Corportation (1940) pioneered “future-now thinking.”  This technique combined detailed analyses with imagination. 1965 - SHELL UPM - 6 YEAR TIMELINEShell implemented Unified Planning Machinery (UPM) technique. The method was developed to enable Shell to plan for future events, with a horizon of six years.WWII - SCENARIO PLANNINGFirst forms of scenario planning originated in the armed forces during the second world war.  The RAND corporation helped carry on this work post WWII. LATE 1970s - DELPHI TECHNIQUE ADOPTED The Delphi technique, developed by the RAND Corporation became part of formal corporate planning techniques in the 1970s.LATE 1950s - DELPHI TECHNIQUE DEVELOPED The Delphi technique was developed by the RAND Corporation. The Delphi technique was based on asking  various experts to estimate individually the probability that certain events will occur in the future.  The goal is to get them to converge on future views by comparing the answers with those of the other experts.1972/3 - SHELL ADOPTS SCENARIO PLANNING AS A PERMANENT STRATEGY 1988 - SHELL PREDICTS CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS IMPACTS1970s - ROYAL DUTCH SHELL/GLOBAL BUSINESS NETWORK (GBN)MATRIX APPROACH CREATEDDeveloped by Shell’s Pierre Wack.LATE 1970s - SCENARIO PLANNING IS WIDELY ADOPTED IN BUSINESSAfter the oil embargo proved to be a deep shock to previously stable views of the future, many companies began undertaking future thinking work. By the late 1970s roughly three-quarters of Fortune 1000 companies had scenario planning as a business strategy adopted. 1969 TO 1970 - SHELL PREDICTS OIL CRISIS Using a Horizon Year Planning framework, Shell executives used scenario planning to look forward to 1985.Their report stated that a stable economy, were oil was based on predictable factors of supply and demand, would not continue. The report suggested a shift in power from the oil companies to the oil producers in the Middle East, would could result in a major increase in oil prices.1947 -  STANFORD RESEARCH INSTITUTEThe Stanford Research Institute (SRI) began long-range thinking,  incorporating operations research, economics and political strategy alongside hard science and military consulting.1960s - STANFORD RESEARCH INSTITUTEThe Stanford Research Intitute began offering long-range planning for businesses that considered poliical econonic and research forces as primary drivers of business development.1968 - THE YEAR 2000: A FRAMEWORK FOR SPECULATION ON THE NEXT THIRTY-THREE YEARSStrategist Herman Kahn publishes his book, “The Year 2000.”  The publication is one of the first known definitions of scenario planning. Kahn defines scenario in his book as ‘‘a set of hypothetical events set in the future constructed to clarify a possible chain of causal events as well as their decision points.’’1980s - RESEARCH LINKS CORPORATE SCENARIO PLANNING ADOPTION TO GLOBAL UNCERTAINTYThe article “Scenarios in Europe—Who uses them and why?”  by Malaska et. al (1984) indicates that there is a link between adoption of scenario planning techniques and uncertainty, unpredictability and instability of the overall business environment.Make It Plausible, Not Probable“But, of course, you can never identify all the forces at play. If you could, and see their interac-tions, then real prediction of the future would be simple. This is never likely to be possible, and furthermore, there are some situations that balance on a hair’s breadth.”—Jimmy Davidson, Head of Shell group planning 1967–1976 (Harvard Business Review)“Un fait mal observé est plus pernicieux qu’un mauvais raisonnement.” (A fact poorly observed is more treacherous than faulty reasoning.)- Paul Valéry, the twentieth-cen-tury French philosopher11The Royal Dutch/Shell Group was an early adopter of the scenario methodology. In the early 1970s, the Royal Dutch/Shell Group formally adopted the scenario planning as a permanent strategy, which helped them to predict and proactively respond to the oil crisis in 1973. After the oil embargo, roughly three-quarters of Fortune 1000 companies had adopted scenario planning as a business strategy.32 A pattern developed, at times of global insecurity, businesses turned to the scenario methodology to help predict future uncertainty.  Following the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, there was a surge in the use of scenario planning. A study by the Harvard Business Review reported following 9/11 found that 38% of firms surveyed reported using scenario techniques to anticipate potential crises and disasters and to anticipate business growth, illustrating that the adoption of scenario planning is correlated with uncertainty, unpredictability, and instability in the business environment.33THE PROLIFERATION OF THE SCENARIO AS A MODERN METHODThe use of scenario planning has increased rapidly in the past decade, which several theorists tie to increased complexity uncertainty in the global environment brought on by forces such as globalization, technological advancement, and climate change. 34  Increased uncertainty means that businesses, governments and other organizations are driven to think about how the future may unfold. The application of scenarios to project climate futures has become more frequent as organizations are forced to grapple with the uncertainty that climate change brings. Today, a diverse group of decision-makers, consultants, and researchers leverage a variety of scenarios methods as a framework to develop emissions scenarios and alert the public to the future consequences of climate change.35HISTORY OF SCENARIOS30  Amer, Daim, and Jet-ter, “A Review of  Scenario Planning.”31  Amin Rastandeh, “Challenges and Poten-tials in Using Alternative Landscape Futures during Climate Change:: A Liter-ature Review and Survey Study,” Urbani Izziv 26, no. 2 (2015): 83–102.32  Barbara Bilodeau and Darrell K. Rigby, “A Grow-ing Focus on Preparedness,” Harvard Business Review, July 1, 2007, https://hbr.org/2007/07/a-growing-fo-cus-on-preparedness.33  Barbara Bilodeau and Darrell K. Rigby, “A Grow-ing Focus on Preparedness,” Harvard Business Review, July 1, 2007, https://hbr.org/2007/07/a-growing-fo-cus-on-preparedness.34  Amer, Daim, and Jet-ter, “A Review of  Scenario Planning.”35  Amer, Daim, and Jet-ter, “A Review of  Scenario Planning.”1213SCENARIO METHODThere are three schools of techniques or major approaches for scenario development. These techniques are (1) intuitive logics, (2) probabilistic modified trends (PMT) methodology, and (3) the French approach of La prospective. Figure 3 summarizes the methods and approaches of each technique. INTUITIVE LOGICSThe Intuitive logics model is also known as the Shell methodology. Shell’s effective and recurrent use of scenarios helped popularize its definition and methodology of scenario development. Shell has become the de facto ‘gold standard of corporate scenario generation,’ which is why the intuitive logics methodology is often referred to as the ‘Shell approach.’36 Unlike the other methods, the Intuitive logics method relies heavily on qualitative data, leveraging participants’ intuition and creative thinking to create future scenarios in a discursive narrative. Since the creation of the intuitive logics approach, numerous variations of the model been published and used to stimulate thinking about the future.37PROBABILISTIC MODIFIED TRENDS (PMT) SCHOOLCreated by Ted Gordon and Olaf Helmer at the RAND Corporation, this school of scenario development integrates two methodologies: Trend-Impact Analysis and Cross-Impact Analysis.38 Trend Impact Analysis and Cross-Impact analysis “involve the probabilistic modification of extrapolated trends.”39 Although Trend Impact Analysis and Cross-Impact analysis are probabilistic forecasting tools, “they generate a range of alternative futures rather than a single point naive extrapolation of historical data, and when combined with judgments and narratives about the events in these futures, they constitute scenarios.”4036	 	Ron	Bradfield	et	al.,	“The Origins and Evolution of  Scenario Techniques in Long Range Business Planning,” Futures 37, no. 8 (October 1, 2005): 795–812.37  Muhammad Amer, Tugrul U. Daim, and Anton-ie Jetter, “A Review of  Sce-nario Planning,” Futures 46 (February 1, 2013): 23–40, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2012.10.003.38	 	Bradfield	et	al.,	“The	Origins and Evolution of  Scenario Techniques in Long Range Business Plan-ning.”Quarterly Summer (200139  Amer, Daim, and Jet-ter, “A Review of  Scenario Planning.”14Purpose of the scenarioMultiple, from a once-off activity making sense of situations and developing strategy, to an ongoing activity associated with anticipation and adaptive organizational learningExploratory or normativeBroad or narrow scope ranging from global, regional, country, industry to a specific issueUsually a once-off activity associated with developing more effective policy and strategic decisions and tactical plans of actionUsually exploratory, can be normativeNarrow scope but examination ofa broad range of factors within the scope.ExploratoryScope is narrowly focused on the probability and impact of specific eventsA once-off activity to enhance extrapolative prediction and policy evaluation.Type of ScenarioScope3–20 years 3–20 years 3–20 years.Time frameA particular management decision, issue or area of general concernGenerally 2–4Intuition, STEEP analysis, research, brainstormingtechniques, and expert opinionQualitative set of equally plausible scenarios in narrative form with strategic options, implications, and early warning signalsA specific phenomenon of concernMultipleInterviews with stakeholders and comprehensivestructural analysis using sophisticated computer toolsMultiple quantitative and qualitative scenarios supported by comprehensive analysis, implications and possible actionsDecisions/issues for which detailed and reliable time series data existsGenerally 3–6Curve fitting to past time series data to identify trends and use expert judgment to create database of unprecedented eventsQuantitative baseline case plus upper and lower quartiles of adjusted time series forecastsScenario starting pointNo. of scenarios  Identificationof key driving forcesOutput of scenario exercise*adapted from Comparison of the Salient Features of the Three Schools of Scenario Techniques R. Bradfield Intuitive-Logics Models La Prospective Probabilistic ModifiedTrendFigure 3: Summary of Scenario Approaches15LA PROSPECTIVEFounded by Gaston Berger, French philosopher, La Prospective scenario approach sought to respond to what Berger saw as a failure “of ‘classical’ forecasting approaches.41 “The primary objective of the Prospectives centre was to formulate an acceptable scenario-based methodology for developing positive images or ‘normative scenarios’ of the future and to lead these images into the political arena where they could serve as a guiding vision to policymakers and the nation, providing a basis for action.”42 La Prospective was widely used in Europe to a variety of public issues, including education, urban and regional planning, and the environment. Scenario work in France continues to have an essential role in public sector planning. La Prospective is a ‘blend of tools and systems analysis,’ incorporating the features of the Intuitive logics approach and the and probabilistic modified trend methodology.43Since the development of these three schools of techniques, several other methodologies have emerged. As a result, there has occurred a blending of these schools of techniques. Today, there are numerous types of scenario methodologies, and a literature review reveals that there is no single methodology to create a scenario.44 The development of scenario methods appears to be practitioner-driven, leading to nearly as many methods of scenario planning practitioners who leverage scenario development.45   Different typologies and frameworks occur because they work to solve different objectives, and as more disciplines begin to employ this method, more methods are developed.SCENARIO METHOD40	 	Bradfield	et	al.,	“The	Origins and Evolution of  Scenario Techniques in Long Range Business Planning.”(A. Martelli, Sce-nario building and scenario planning: state of  the art and prospects of  evolution, Futures Research Quarterly Summer (200141	 	Bradfield	et	al.42	 	Bradfield	et	al.43	 	Bradfield	et	al.44  Muhammad Amer, Tugrul U. Daim, and Anton-ie Jetter, “A Review of  Sce-nario Planning,” Futures 46 (February 1, 2013): 23–40.45  Muhammad Amer, Tugrul U. Daim, and Anton-ie Jetter, “A Review of  Sce-nario Planning,” Futures 46 (February 1, 2013): 23–40..16STEPS IN SCENARIO DEVELOPMENTThe steps list below describe a generic summary of the steps in scenario development, as outlined by the following authors: • Amer, Muhammad, Tugrul U. Daim, and Antonie Jetter. “A Review of Scenario Planning.” Futures 46 (February 1, 2013): 23–40. • Bishop, Peter, Andy Hines, and Terry Collins. “The Current State of Scenario Development: An Overview of Techniques.” Foresight 9, no. 1 ( January 1, 2007): 5–25.• Philip W. F van Notten et al., “An Updated Scenario Typology,” Futures 35, no. 5 ( June 1, 2003): 423–43• Schoemaker, Paul J. H. “Multiple Scenario Development: Its Conceptual and Behavioral Foundation.” Strategic Management Journal 14, no. 3 (1993): 193–2131. IDENTIFY PROJECT GOALThe project goal describes the scenario analysis’ objective, which in turn influences the design of the scenario planning process. The goal of the project determines whether to use exploratory, predictive, or normative scenarios.462. DETERMINE PROCESS DESIGN The intuitive scenario process applies qualitative knowledge and expert insights. “Creative techniques such as the development of stories or storylines are typically intuitive approaches to scenario analysis.” 47 Another design approach is the formal method. This design process originated as the French la prospective, as opposed to the intuitive scenario process, this method does not rely on creative methods; instead, it is a rational and analytical exercise, which leverages computer simulation and qualitative data.4846  Philip W. F van Not-ten et al., “An Updated Sce-nario Typology,” Futures 35, no. 5 (June 1, 2003): 423–43, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0016-3287(02)00090-3.47  Philip W. F van Not-ten et al., “An Updated Sce-nario Typology,” Futures 35, no. 5 (June 1, 2003): 423–43, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0016-3287(02)00090-3.48  Philip W. F van Not-ten et al., “An Updated Sce-nario Typology,” Futures 35, no. 5 (June 1, 2003): 423–43, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0016-3287(02)00090-3.17 SCENARIO METHOD3. SET SCENARIO TIMEFRAMEScenarios can be developed to examine future events in any timeframe, however “they provide greater usefulness if developed for long-term horizons; however, future uncertainty increases as we move away from the present and look further into the future.”49 Most methods look between 2 and 20 years into the future.4. IDENTIFY THE MAJOR STAKEHOLDERS OR ACTORS Identify stakeholder’s current roles, interests, and power positions.50 5. DETERMINE THE SCALE OF ANALYSIS “Scenarios can be developed according to different geographical or spatial scales, ranging from the global scale to supranational areas, to national, to sub-national or regional areas, and finally to local areas..”516. IDENTIFY CRITICAL UNCERTAINTIES/MAKE A LIST OF DRIVING FORCES“Identify key uncertainties who resolution will significantly affect the variable of interest to you. Briefly explain why these uncertain events matter, as well as how they interrelate.”527. SYNTHESIZE INFORMATION ABOUT POSSIBLE FUTURES INTO ALTERNATIVE FUTURES8. SET A NUMBER OF SCENARIOS 49  Amer, Daim, and Jetter.50  Schoemaker, “Multi-ple Scenario Development.”51  van Notten et al., “An Updated Scenario Typolo-gy.”52  Schoemaker, “Multi-ple Scenario Development.”18There is no consensus in scenario planning literature on the appropriate number of scenarios. Generally, futurists and researchers recommend between three and six scenarios. The plurality of futures narratives is considered the strength of scenario planning, where users can develop a narrative more than one future, can put multiple futures next to each other to generate a discussion about possible or desirable futures. However, developing more than six scenarios is regarded as inefficient.53The 2x2 matrix method (see figure 4) is a standard scenario methodology made famous by Global Business Network (GBN) and Sanford Research Institute (SRI). This methodology limits the number of scenarios to four by combining two hypotheses, key drivers or trends, creating a 2x2 matrix that creates for scenarios. Some research has critiqued this method as it may oversimplify the critical issues identified in scenario development, leading some nuances or important details to be ignored.54 However, this method remains one of the most commonly used, “its success may be explained by how easy it is to implement and generate highly contrasted scenarios in a short period of time.”55 The highly contrasted scenarios may also promote dialogue9. SELECT AND FINALIZE SCENARIOS Schoemaker outlines the following five characteristics that should be considered when selecting scenarios: 1. Challenge: The scenarios should challenge the organization’s conventional wisdom about the future.Many authors suggest that it is essential to allow for discontinuities to be considered; therefore, it is vital to include a wild-card, or disruptive events, as one of the scenarios. These wild-cards “are events whose probability is often judged to be low according to present criteria, 53  Amer, Daim, and Jetter.54  Amer, Daim, and Jetter.55  Alun Rhydderch, “Scenario Building: The 2x2 Matrix Technique,” 2017, 2.19 SCENARIO METHODDriving force 1 - HighDriving force 1 - LowDriving force 2 - LowScenario quardrant 1Scenario quardrant 2Scenario quardrant 3Scenario quardrant 4Driving force 2 - HighScenarios(predictive)Probable Possible PreferableForecasts What-if External Strategic Preserving Transforming(explorative) (normative)but which have an enormous impact should they occur.”56 Given that the goal of scenario planning is to disturb the present, it is crucial that while developing and analyzing scenarios to include wild-card or disruptive events, beyond the traditional, operational and status quo, helping to explore new possibilities.572. Plausibility: the selected scenarios have to be capable of happening. All scenarios, including wild-card or disruptive events, should remain believable. Researchers found that “when subjects are forced to consider extreme scenarios, the availability effect may be countered by a believability concern.”583. Differentiation: they should be structurally different and not simple variations on the same theme.4. Consistency: the combination of logics in a scenario has to ensure that there is no built-in internal inconsistency that would undermine its credibility.Figure 4: 2x2 Matrix205. Decision-marking utility: each scenario should contribute specific insights into the future that help inform the public and decision-makers.56  Schwab, Cerutti, and von Reibntiz, “Foresight – Using Scenarios to Shape the Future of  Agricultural Research.”57  Amer, Daim, and Jetter.58  Schoemaker, “Multi-ple Scenario Development.”21SCENARIOS FOR CLIMATE FUTURESThis graduate project suggests that scenario planning is an underutilized methodology in landscape architecture. The next section explores barriers to implementation, documents three landscape architecture projects which use scenario thinking, and finally proposes using the scenario planning methodology to envision a climate future for Metro Vancouver’s Lower Fraser River.2223For the past two decades, as the consequences of climate change have become increasingly apparent and calamitous, it has become clear that cities across the globe are grossly underprepared to confront climate change. Climate change will continue to increase occurrences of drought, flooding, and environmental decline, calling for a new response to the way we plan and design our cities. As a result, landscape architects are increasingly being compelled to undertake new scales of action and, “to address questions related to infrastructural problems, natural and urban ecological systems, and cultural and regional issues related to regenerating city areas and reclaiming urban waterfront or river settings.”59Addressing climate change through design is complex; it requires creativity and innovation. It requires an understanding of multiple systems at multiple scales. Now, “if the entire system...the planet, and even space beyond are now design problems, then grappling with them requires... a reconception of design methods.”60Many others in the fields of defense, business, and spatial planning have relied on scenarios to challenge their thinking and to grapple with complex and uncertain systems. Leveraging this new method of design can challenge the way we currently design, allowing us to look beyond organizational ‘tunnel’ vision and explore a greater depth of plausible futures.SCENARIOS FOR CLIMATE FUTURES59  Niall Kirkwood, “Is Landscape Technology?,” in Is Landscape...?, 201560  Claudia Bode and Lizzie Yarina, “Design as [Re]Assemblage,” LA +, December 7, 2019.24Leveraging the scenario methodology to envision climate futures provides the field of landscape architecture with the following three opportunities to:1. Challenge the landscape design process, forcing organizations to think about the unthinkable.Scenario planning provides a methodology to explore previously unknown solutions and requires organizations to think deeply and critically about the future. “The potential of using scenarios as tools with planning, design, and decision-making processes is that they allow us to imagine previously unknown solutions or development and let others trace our thoughts to reach a similar conclusion.”612. Communicate the urgency of climate change impacts on our region. Because climate change is a problem on a global scale, understanding the implications of climate change on the local level can be complex, challenging to understand, and difficult to communicate.62 Envisioning climate futures through scenario planning and conveying the impacts of climate change through narratives, visualization, and design provides a framework for communicating the urgency of a climate solution to the public and decision-makers.3. Create a comprehensive vision a tool for policymakers to work towards change.Addressing climate change is a complex problem; it is not bounded by our jurisdictional and political boundaries. A problem at a global scale requires coordination among jurisdictions at every level; therefore, confronting the complexity of climate change requires a holistic approach. Envisioning climate futures can serve as a guiding vision for policy and decision-makers, mobilizing governments at all levels to work towards implementing a preferred climate future. 61  Christian Salewski, Dutch New Worlds (Rotter-dam: 010 publishers, 2013).25SCENARIO PLANNING AND THE POLITICS OF INFRASTRUCTURE SPENDINGFigure 5 shows a representation of three types of alternative futures: probable, possible, and preferred. The diagram, called a ‘future cone,’ extends from the present on the left into alternative futures on the right, illustrating the range of scenario possibilities.Scenarios require organizations to think deeply and critically about the future. Scenario analysis often requires thinking beyond the probable, imagining a range of possible futures. Within the field of landscape architecture, landscape architects are rarely provided the opportunity to design beyond the probable. With the majority of climate infrastructure projects funded by the state, the development of climate infrastructure projects is often tied to the politics of infrastructure funding. The funders of climate change projects — elected government officials at the local, provincial, and federal level— are not motivated to develop solutions to issues that have long time-horizon and are not easily understood by the public. As a result, mobilizing funding projects where the future risk is uncertain, the public understanding of the project is limited, and implementation costs are high can prove difficult.Uncertainty in climate science makes it difficult to understand a region’s vulnerability to climate change. Uncertainty among experts means that understanding climate impacts at the local level is complex and challenging for the public. SCENARIOS FOR CLIMATE FUTURES26TODAYPreferable= ScenariosPossibleProbableWild-cardPoliticians work on short elected timelines; therefore, funding is often granted to projects that align with the life-cycle of the politician. Addressing issues of climate infrastructure require solutions that have a long-time horizon. Politicians often prefer investing in capital projects that had a short lead time, where their constituents can immediately experience accrued benefits.63 Therefore, a multi-million dollar capital to respond to an event that may occur in 30 years is often not aligned with elected politicians’ objectives.SCENARIO PLANNING AS A LANDSCAPE ARCHITECTURE METHODWhile innovation in the public sector is lagging, some non-profit organizations in the landscape architecture field have begun to experiment with scenario planning as a new design methodology.  In the application of scenarios in landscape architecture, organizations are identifying that designers are well-positioned to engage in scenario planning for the following three reasons:62  Sara Barron et al., “Delta-RAC Sea Level Rise Adaptation Visioning Study,” 2012.63  Peter Olson and David Wessel, “The Case for Spending More on In-frastructure Maintenance,” Brookings (blog), January 31, 2017.Figure 5: Future Cone27LANDSCAPE ARCHITECTS ARE GENERALISTSAs generalists, landscape architects “understand the big picture because [they] coordinate multiple specialists, desires, scales, and epistemologies in the service of a larger vision.”64 Leveraging their skillset as a generalist, landscape architects can work as transdisciplinary leaders and collaborators, and work with allied disciplines to encompass a variety of viewpoints in their scenario work, to cover the broadest range of alternative futures.65LANDSCAPE ARCHITECTS ARE STORYTELLERSThe architectural field has long engaged in representation and speculation, the act of storytelling. Scenarios rely heavily on the act of storytelling to create an image of the future, provoke discussion, and inform decision-makers. The skillset of the scenario designer aligns closely with the landscape architect, whose design training encourages innovation and the promotion of new ideasSpeculation in landscape architecture is long-established, where designers create speculative futures, providing narratives about how political forces, emerging technologies and a changing climate influence space, culture, and community.66 These speculative futures, which landscape architects engage in, are then communicated through visualization and representation techniques. As illustrated by Loric Voss, the field of architecture holds the powerful ability to communicate possible futures through drawing:“Drawing is a process of creation, a making-visible of possible alternatives from which material or virtual realities may be constructed. Insofar as the world comprises the ‘real’ and the ‘possible,’ drawing can serve as a powerful tool not only to represent things that are real but also to actualize possible futures. Its projective apparatus may be used to produce eminently realizable schemes, or be tuned to conjure seemingly unbuildable constructions.”67SCENARIOS FOR CLIMATE FUTURES64  Claudia Bode and Lizzie Yarina, “Design as [Re]Assemblage,” LA +, accessed December 6, 2019, https://www.researchgate.net/publica-tion/333934547_Design_as_ReAssemblage.65  Paul J. H. Schoemak-er, “Multiple Scenario De-velopment: Its Conceptual and Behavioral Founda-tion,” Strategic Management Journal 14, no. 3 (1993): 193–213.66  Kate Orff, Toward an Urban Ecology (New York, NY: The Monacelli Press, 2016).67  AnnaLisa Meyboom and	Lőrinc	Vass,	“Notes	on Drawing,” in Driverless Urban Futures: A Specula-tive Atlas for Autonomous Vehicles (Routledge, 2018).28Through the act of drawing, landscape architects can leverage visualization and representation to create compelling future stories. To strengthen the future story narrative, through speculative drawings. LANDSCAPE ARCHITECTS ARE ADVOCATESThrough drawings, landscape architects can influence policy, behavior, and public opinion. Employing scenarios as a method for envisioning climate futures, allows the landscape architect to communicate the urgency needed in response to climate change. Advocates of scenario planning argue that if not challenged, organizations tend to assume that the future will be similar to the past.68 Scenarios are employed to challenge this thought process. Through drawings, landscape architects can communicate dynamic and complex systems to the public, communicating the impacts of climate change and conveying the urgency of these issues through representation.68  Phil Hadridge, “Thinking about the Future: Guidelines for Strategic Foresight,” Foresight 10, no. 1 (January 1, 2008): 79–80, 29 SCENARIOS FOR CLIMATE FUTURESPRECEDENT3031The Dredge Research Collaborative is a nonprofit organization that investigates human sediment handling practices. Their mission is “to advance public knowledge about sediment management, to provide platforms for a transdisciplinary conversation about sediment management, and to participate in envisioning and realizing preferred sedimentary futures.”69In 2016, the Dredge Research Collaborative, at UC Berkeley held DredgeFest California, a week-long scenario planning workshop that examined the human manipulation of sediments in California’s Bay-Delta.70 The workshop was a transdisciplinary event, engaging landscape architects, government agencies, theorists, academics, corporate practitioners, industry experts, students, and the public. The event leveraged scenario analysis to address the future of sedimentary management in the region, “situat[ing} sedimentary management in the context of critical current local conversations and issues, including climate change, sea-level rise, wetland restoration, the cultural landscape heritage of the Bay-Delta, and public waterfront access.”71DredgeFest CaliforniaDredge Research Collaborative201669  Dredge Research Collaborative, “DredgeFest California: Key Findings and Recommendations December 2016,” 2016.70  Dredge Research Collaborative.Figure 6: Dredge Research Process32The goal of the transdisciplinary Dredgefest event was to:1. “bring together disciplinary experts and affected publics around the issues related to dredging and other sediment handling practices;2. investigate and document current dredging practices through both fieldwork and research; and3. develop new research and design methodologies by investigating current practices through a set of design workshops focused on these vast and dynamic landscape operations.”72The project sought to engage landscape architects to bring their skills, methods, and insights to help create a comprehensive design and advance public awareness of human sediment handling practices, which is typically controlled by engineers and policymakers. To achieve these goals, the project organizers leveraged scenario analysis to envision the future of the region. The project began with a set of four exploratory scenarios, developed by the Dredge Research Collaborative. As stated by the organizers, exploratory scenarios “do not articulate normative pathways or outcomes, and thus do not define a direction for design work. They are not brief. Rather, teams were given free reign to choose how they formulate design proposals addressing their track’s thematic, informed by the range of future outcomes presented by the scenarios.” 73 From there, workshop participants responded to exploratory design with normative design solutions. “This is where the normative aspect of design begins to emerge: What did a team respond to and why? What did it privilege or augment? What did it sideline or ignore? All this is apparent in the decisions each team made, given the backdrop of the scenarios, and forms a basis for review and discussion.”7471  “DredgeFest Cali-fornia | Dredge Research Collaborative,” accessed December 18, 2019, http://dredgeresearchcollaborative.org/works/dredgefest-cali-fornia/.72  “DredgeFest Event Series | 2016 ASLA Profes-sional Awards.”73  Dredge Research Collaborative, “DredgeFest California: Key Findings and Recommendations December 2016,” 2016.3334The workshop provides a model of how to apply a blended scenario methodology to a comprehensive transdisciplinary landscape model. Leveraging the strengths in exploratory and normative scenarios, the Dredge Research Collaborative developed a set of possible and preferred futures, unveiling a set of proposed futures, which considered a wide range of potential effects of drivers of change within the Bay-Delta’s watershed. The project won a 2016 honor award from the American Society of Landscape Architects for Communications, which recognized how this innovative methodology leverages the skill set of the landscape architect to propose broader design schemes and scenarios for the future.“There’s now a tool for landscape architects to take to decision-makers. Unique and inventive, it focuses a whole new lens on understanding and thinking about this aspect of  landscape.” - “DredgeFest Event Series | 2016 ASLA Professional Awards.”74  Dredge Research Collaborative, “DredgeFest California: Key Findings and Recommendations December 2016,” 2016.Figure 7: Dredge Scenario 1 // Drowned Coast35Delta-RAC Sea Level Rise Adaptation Visioning StudyUBC Collaborative for Advanced Landscape Planning (CALP)2012Delta-RAC Sea Level Rise Adaptation Visioning Study (Delta-RAC) was developed in 2012 as part of the University of British Columbia’s Collaborative for Advanced Landscape Planning (CALP). Delta-RAC uses adaptation scenarios, mapping, and 3D landscape drawings to visualize the impacts of climate change—including sea-level rise, storm surge, and increased stormwater—explore adaptation strategies to respond to sea-level rise.75The goal of the project is to “inform the development of best practice guidelines and other adaptation tools, including science-based visualization techniques, in order to provide a precedent for municipal decision-making and land use planning related to climate change in other BC communities.”76The Corporation of Delta is at considerable risk of flooding from climate-induced sea-level rise and storm surges. “About half of Delta’s land area is less than 1.5 meters above mean sea level, and a dike system defends these areas against high tides and storms.” 77 While climate change will have many compounding impacts on the Figure 8: Climate Scenarios from Delta-RAC36community of Delta, the project team narrowed the focus of this project to sea level rise, to more comprehensively understand the implications of this climate change impact on the municipality.To visualize the impacts of sea-level rise on the region, Delta-RAC used a conceptual Evaluation Framework, which included the following four steps:1. Model climate scenario impacts (focused on the sea-level rise). The team modeled climate impacts to understand the worst case and best case scenario for sea-level rise. Based on a literature review of global and local climate science, the project team assumed the probability of a sea-level rise of 1.2 m is 100% over the next 100 years. The project team also acknowledged that given the uncertainty in climate science, they could not know at what point over the next 100 years that this increase will occur.2. Create and visualize adaptation options (creating the scenarios). The project team leveraged the 2x2 method to develop highly contrasted scenarios.  Although the project team acknowledged that a climate change adaptation strategy would likely be more nuanced and possibly a blending of these scenarios, the contrasting scenarios were presented separately to aid understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of each climate adaptation strategy.The driver of the first axis is the extent to which the scenario maintain, lose (defense), or expand (offense) the lands within the sea level rise planning area. The driver on the second axis is the extent to which the scenario leverages engineering solutions to keep water out or “soft” approaches that allow for some ocean encroachment and 75  “Delta-RAC,” CALP, accessed December 16, 2019, https://calp.forestry.ubc.ca/home/delta-rac/.76  Sara Barron et al., “Delta-RAC Sea Level Rise Adaptation Visioning Study,” 2012.77  Sara Barron et al., “Delta-RAC Sea Level Rise Adaptation Visioning Study,” 2012.37opportunities for unique community forms.783. Evaluate against key indicators and implications The performance of each scenario is evaluated based on several key indicators identified by the project team. The indicators help to measure the differences and potential performance across each scenario. 4. Assess and RecommendThe final step considers the three previous steps in combination and allowed for revisions to each step as issues emerged from the adaptation scenarios.The Collaborative for Advanced Landscape Planning at the University of British Columbia developed an innovative visioning tool, which has proven effective in communicating the impacts of climate change to the public and decision-makers. Recognizing that “climate change at the local level can be complex and challenging for communities to understand,” this project leverages landscape visualization to educate the public and decision-makers about the impacts of climate change in their communities.79 Building public support for climate change adaptation “is important because some of the responses will require a significant investment of tax dollars and local government resources.”80 This precedent serves as a DELTA-RAC SEA LEVEL RISE ADAPTATION VISIONING STUDYFigure 9: Delta-RAC 2x2 Matrix38strong example of how landscape visualization can be used to “help communities to understand the impacts of climate change in their region, to appreciate the urgency in certain cases, and to prioritize actions.” 81Delta-RAC Key provides several vital takeaways for visualizing climate change, creating climate scenarios, and communicating these results to the public. Lessons learned include:• Focusing on one key climate issue helps to narrow the focus of the project, helping to develop a clear and comprehensible message to a public audience. However, limiting scenarios to one climate issue neglects to engage and educate the public and decision-makers in other important climate issues.• Separating scenarios into discrete options may result in a simplification of a design solution; however, it may serve to aid people in understanding the benefits and weaknesses of each option. • “Uncertainty in climate science and lack of effective engagement tools make it difficult for local governments to build public support for flood-related policy and action. Previous research on climate change response options, using flood scenario visualization, has proven effective in developing community awareness and support for adaptation needs.” 8278  Sara Barron et al., “Delta-RAC Sea Level Rise Adaptation Visioning Study,” 2012.79  West Coast Environ-mental Law, “PreParing for Climate Change,” October 2012.80  West Coast Environ-mental Law, “PreParing for Climate Change,” October 2012.81  West Coast Environ-mental Law, “PreParing for Climate Change,” October 2012.82  Sara Barron et al., “Delta-RAC Sea Level Rise Adaptation Visioning Study,” 2012.Figure 10: Delta-RAC Key Indicators39MOMA RISING TIDESDLAND STUDIO & ARO2009-201083  Barry Bergdoll, Rising Currents: Projects for New York’s Waterfront (New York: Museum of  Modern Art : Distributed in the U.S. and Canada by D.A.P./Distributed Art Publishers, 2011). Pg. 9In 2009-2010 the Museum of Modern Art (MOMA), with funding from the Rockefeller Foundation, adopted a new model for curation, inserting themselves into the discussion of climate change, helping to advocate for a new role for architects. The exhibit, Rising Currents: Projects for New York’s Waterfront, “call[ed] for the reinvention of urban infrastructure in the face of the effects of rising sea level on the world’s great cities.”83The goal of the exhibit was to provoke a dialogue among public officials, policy-makers, and the public on the threat of climate change and the urgency to confront rising sea levels through a dramatic redesign of our infrastructural systems.84 For the exhibit, five interdisciplinary teams of architects, landscape architects, engineers, ecologists, and artists created comprehensive design proposals, which reimagined the coastlines of New York and New Jersey around New York Harbor.85 It was “an initiative to develop adaptation strategies for New York City in the face of climate change and sea-level rise.”86 Each multidisciplinary team was given a site in the New York Area and was given the design challenge to develop ‘soft infrastructure’ “that would ameliorate the effects Figure 11: New Urban Ground40of climate change by mimicking nature and accepting a blurring of the edge between land and water.”87 Over the course of the design work, the teams were visited by climate scientists and city officials, and the public was allowed to provide feedback during two open houses.88The resulting designs leveraged new forms of water defense infrastructure, creating new relationships between the city and environment while addressing the threats of climate change.  DLANDstudio partnered with Architecture Research Office (ARO) to create  A New Urban Ground the MOMA exhibition. Through a combination of landscape strategies, the project envisions a new relationship between the city and nature. The proposal “consists of two components that form an interconnected system: porous green streets and a graduated edge. Typical rain events will infiltrate porous streets and help keep surface water out of the city’s combined sewer system. In larger storms, the streets filter and carry water to new perimeter wetlands to enrich coastal ecologies.”89 ARO also puts forward a “new conception of a 84  “MoMA | Rising Currents: Looking Back and Next Steps,” accessed December 6, 2019.85  Bergdoll, Rising Currents.86 ibid.87  ibid.88 ibid.89  “DLANDstudio,” ac-cessed December 17, 2019, https://dlandstudio.com.Figure 12: New Urban Ground Site Sections41 MOMA RISING TIDES - DLAND STUDIO“street” that will not only provide productive park space within the city but will also create a network of absorptive green surfaces.”90MOMA’s exhibit, while not employing a traditional scenario methodological approach leverages many of the principles of the method. Through the exhibition, DLAND studio proposed a normative design solution for the future of Manhattan. Unlinke traditional designs in landscape architecture, DLAND’s design proposal suggests new forms of infrastructural order and challenges traditional space arrangements.90  “DLANDstudio.”4243SITE ANALYSIS4445THE CHALLENGEThe Fraser River is the largest in BC, stretching nearly 1,375 km from the Rockies to the Salish Sea. The land drained by the Fraser River and its tributaries is known as the Fraser River Basin. It is BC’s largest and Canada’s fifth-largest, watershed— approximately 25% of the total land area of BC. The Fraser River Basin consists of 12 major watersheds, including the Lower Fraser watershed, which extends from Hope to where the mouth of the river meets the Georgia Straight. The Lower Fraser watershed includes communities in the Fraser Valley and Metro Vancouver and is the most densely populated watershed in the entire Fraser River system. With more than 300,000 residents living in the Lower Fraser River floodplain and significant commercial, industrial, and transportation infrastructure in the floodplain, the area is facing significant risk from climate-induced flooding. 91Figure 13: Fraser River Valley46The Lower Fraser currently lacks a comprehensive strategy for how to address the future climate conditions of the region. There is an urgent need for a comprehensive vision and long-term strategy to ensure a sustainable future for the river and surrounding lands; however, “uncertainty in climate science and a lack of effective engagement tools make it difficult for local governments to build public support for flood-related and action.”92This project seeks to employ the scenario method for the Lower Fraser River, creating a set of preferred futures, which envision a resilient climate future for this region at risk.91  Richmond Chamber of  Commerce, “The Eco-nomic Importance of  the Lower Fraser River,” July 2014.92  Richmond Chamber of  Commerce, “The Eco-nomic Importance of  the Lower Fraser River,” July 2014.47Figure 14: Deep Sea Navigation MapHOW WE GOT TO NOWThe Fraser River Delta was formed more than 10,000 years ago from glacial and alluvial deposits from the post-glacial Fraser River. First Nations have lived in the area since the formation of the delta, relying on the river and its tributaries as a transportation route and food source. Upon the arrival of European settlers, the river continued to play an important role, acting as an essential transportation route, which helped facilitate the fur trade and gold rush in the 19th century. As the population of Metro Vancouver began to grow, settlement in delta began, and in 1864 construction of dikes began to help protect settlements from Fraser River flooding. In 1894, rapid snowmelt caused the largest Fraser River flood on record, flooding from Harrison to Richmond. This flood help spur flood infrastructure construction in the region, to protect the region’s growing settlements from future flooding. SITE ANALYSIS48Figure 15: Tidal flats at Brunswick Point in Ladner, B.C.49The Fraser River has acted as a divider between the north and south sides of the Fraser Valley, acting as a significant barrier to land transportation. Over the years, the provincial government has built transportation infrastructure to help connect the north and south of the river, establishing one of the country’s most significant transportation gateways, connecting the Port of Vancouver to the markets across North America. Today, “the Lower Fraser River is crucially important to the Fraser Valley and Metropolitan Vancouver. It provides for a wide variety of uses, including as an economic waterway for port activity, recreational destination, productive commercial and sport fishing area, agricultural delta, and marine transportation corridor.” 93The following are essential drivers of change and local factors that should be considered in the development of future scenarios for the region:DIKESDikes are present along with the low lying areas of the Fraser River Delta, fortifying the delta and protecting land adjacent to the Fraser River from both river and ocean flooding. The Fraser River dike infrastructure was built in the early 20th century to prevent flooding from the spring freshet of the river and storm surges from the ocean. The flood protection infrastructure controls the flow of water, separating the river flows from the floodplain. By preventing flooding, the dikes also prevent sediment-laden water from reaching the floodplain, increasing the amount of sediment in the river flows, resulting in increased sedimentation downstream. However, today, the flood defense infrastructure in the region is significantly undersize, even without additional sea-level rise land adjacent to the Fraser River and adjacent coastal reaches are vulnerable to flooding from winter storm surges and high tides in El Nino years.94 SITE ANALYSIS93  Richmond Chamber of  Commerce.94  Richmond Chamber of  Commerce.95  Sara Barron et al., “Delta-RAC Sea Level Rise Adaptation Visioning Study,” 2012.96  Richmond Chamber of  Commerce, “The Eco-nomic Importance of  the Lower Fraser River.”50The dikes also slow natural course changes along the Fraser River, providing reliable shipping lanes routes. Before the construction of dikes, the Fraser River’s distributary channels would repeatedly switch over time. Construction of the dikes helped to stabilize the river channels, maintaining the southern arm for deep-sea navigation. However, this practice has altered sediment flows, leaving areas along the river, including Roberts Bank, sediment starved and susceptible to erosion.95The region’s dikes, which currently protect agriculture, commercial, residents, and public facilities directly affected by the river from flooding, is undersized. Preliminary cost estimates place costs of ongoing dike improvements and sediment management strategies within the Lower Fraser at approximately $10 billion.96FLOODING A consequence of its coastal delta setting, the Fraser River Delta is vulnerable to flooding from both the spring freshet on the Fraser River and from storm surges and winter high tide events from the Coast Salish Sea. To ensure flood control in the Fraser Valley, Maple Ridge, Pitt Meadows, Coquitlam, Richmond, and Delta are protected by 600 km of dikes, 400 flood boxes, and 100 pump stations51Figure 18: Fraser River Flood AdFigure 16: Aerial of Fraser River Flood (above)Figure 17: Fraser River Flooding (below)52Figure 19: Deep Sea NavigationHistorical events have occurred along the Fraser River, illustrating the scale of catastrophe for a future possible flood. The largest flood on record occurred in 1894, this flood was massive in scale, but due to limited development, little damage was caused. The second-largest flood on record occurred in 1948 and was the result of a failure of dikes. The flood caused severe destruction, including several casualties, the destruction of about 2,000 homes, the evacuation of 16,000 residents, and approximately $210 million in damages (present-day value).97 A recent study by the Fraser Basin Council estimated that a flood similar in magnitude to the 1894 flood would cost approximately $23 billion in damages in the Lower Mainland.98DREDGINGDredging, the removal of sediments from rivers, harbors, and other water bodies. It is routine maintenance in waterways because sedimentation –the accumulation of silt and sand at the water’s floor – fills the channel. Each year during the spring freshet, approximately 32 million cubic meters of sediment is transported by the Fraser River.99 Approximately 3.5 million cubic meters of 97  Ministry of  Environ-ment, “Dike Management - Province of  British Colum-bia,” accessed December 15, 2019.98  “Fraser Basin Council - Phase 1 Results,” accessed December 15, 2019, https://www.fraserbasin.bc.ca/Phase_1_Results.html.99  Richmond Chamber of  Commerce, “The Eco-nomic Importance of  the Lower Fraser River.”53this material settles in the lower reaches of the river and requires dredging to maintain access to Fraser River shipping channel for deep-sea vessels.100The majority of this dredged material is either sold to offset dredging costs or deposited in the waters off the coast of Vancouver. Other port cities have begun to investigate or implement beneficial reuse strategies, including placement in wetland sites, in order to stimulate accretion.101 The primary barriers to beneficially reusing dredged material are regulatory, financial, and logistical.AGRICULTURAL LANDThe Lower Fraser Delta is one of the most productive agricultural regions in Canada. Climate change has already begun to have an impact on agricultural production in the region, affecting farm crops, growing conditions, soil salinity, availability of fresh irrigation water, etc. While increased temperatures and a longer growing season could yield increase agricultural capability in the region, the impacts of flooding and saltwater intrusion could negatively impact production. “Farming contributed to the early settlement of the [region], and today adds to the economy, identity, and residents’ quality of life,”102 which should be considered in the development of any future proposal for the region.SITE ANALYSIS100  Richmond Chamber of  Commerce.101  Dredge Research Collaborative, “DredgeFest California: Key Findings and Recommendations December 2016,” 2016.102  Barron et al., “Del-ta-RAC Sea Level Rise Ad-aptation Visioning Study.”103  Richmond Chamber of  Commerce, “The Eco-nomic Importance of  the Lower Fraser River.”54Figure 20: Metro Vancouver 2015 Industrial Lands InventoryINDUSTRIAL LANDIncreasing housing costs in the region has put tremendous pressure on industrial land. As a result, the region has faced a decreasing supply of industrial lands. Between 1980 and 2010, the City of Vancouver and the cities of Richmond, Burnaby and Surrey lost 3,000 hectares of industrial land. 103 Maintaining and increasing the supply of these lands is vital to ensure the sustainability of the regional economy. With many of the industrial land and facilities alongside the channels of the Lower Fraser River, a significant portion of the region’s industrial land base is at risk of flooding. Protecting or relocation these lands is essential to the regional economy. 55Figure 21: A great blue heron skims across the water, with Vancouver’s Roberts Bank port in the background56PORTPort infrastructure along the Fraser River “forms a key part of Port of Vancouver, which is the largest port by export tonnage in North America and is the country’s principal ocean gateway to the Pacific.” 104 Almost every car that comes to Canada from Asia goes through the Annacis Auto Terminal, as well as the Richmond Auto Terminal. Both of these terminals are located on the Fraser River and receive nearly 100 percent of all Asian-manufactured imports. As a result, the Port is a significant economic contributor to the local and national economy. The Port of Vancouver stretches from Roberts Bank and the Fraser River up to and including Burrard Inlet and includes more than 1,500 hectares of land. The Fraser River is a central location for economic development as the majority of remaining developable port lands for all of the Port of Vancouver are located along the Fraser River.105 OTHER ECONOMIC ACTIVITIESThe Lower Fraser River and its adjacent lands accommodate a broad range of economic activities, including commercial and sport fisheries, forest products facilities, and eco-tourism/outdoor recreation. 106104  Richmond Chamber of  Commerce, “The Eco-nomic Importance of  the Lower Fraser River,” July 2014.105  Richmond Chamber of  Commerce, “The Eco-nomic Importance of  the Lower Fraser River,” July 2014.106  Richmond Chamber of  Commerce, “The Eco-nomic Importance of  the Lower Fraser River,” July 2014.57Figure 22: Snow Geese migrate North across the Fraser River of Bruns-wick Point in Tsawwas-sen, B.C.  58PACIFIC FLYWAY AND SALMON HABITATThe Delta of the Fraser River is an important migration stopover location on the Pacific Flyway. Used by 5 million migratory birds annually, the Lower Fraser’s coastal estuaries provide crucial habitat.107 Coastal estuaries and marshlands provide essential habitat for salmonid species, supporting migrating salmon at several stages of their lifecycle. Also, farmer’s fields in the lower maintain act as wintering grounds for birds that do not migrate future south.108Presently, the Lower Fraser’s ecosystem is threatened by urban expansion and agricultural changes. Climate change stress will further threaten these ecosystems through effects such as climate-induced sea-level rise, which will reduce and squeeze these ecosystems over time as they face permanent flooding due to rising sea levels. As climate change threatens these ecosystems through rising sea levels and temperatures, the species which inhabit these spaces will also become threatened. LEGISLATION, JURISDICTIONAL AND POLITICAL COORDINATIONEach of the drivers of change is subject to the policies, regulations, and plans of the many government and non-governmental organizations, which oversees the administration and maintenance of the river. Along the banks of the Lower Fraser River, are 15 municipal governments and 29 First Nations groups and over 20 provincial and federal ministries involved in the Fraser River’s management and administration.109 In addition to governmental organizations, several private and public organizations are involved in the stewardship of these lands. These organizations include Port Metro 107  Richmond Chamber of  Commerce.108	 	“Pacific	Coast,”	Ducks Unlimited Canada (blog), accessed December 16, 2019, https://www.ducks.ca/places/pacif-ic-coast/.109  Richmond Chamber of  Commerce, “The Eco-nomic Importance of  the Lower Fraser River.”59Vancouver, CN and CP Rail, Vancouver International Airport (YVR), BC Hydro, and the Fraser Basin Council. Managing the local, provincial, and federal regulatory environment and coordinating multiple stakeholders, directly and indirectly, involved in the river’s management, development, and stewardship is challenging and cumbersome. This coordination among stakeholders has historically hindered the region’s ability to implement a comprehensive vision for the Fraser Valley and has historically led to incremental and piecemeal interventions throughout the region.SITE ANALYSIS6061PLAN OF WORKMoving to GP2, I propose employing a mixed-method scenario approach to develop a climate future for the Lower Fraser River.Based on the literature review, leveraging the exploratory scenario work of local scientists, I will develop a succinct and informed an exploratory narrative that details two significant flooding events, which occur sometime in the next 80 years. Responding to the exploratory scenario, I will propose a set of normative design solutions, which will seek to mitigate the impacts of flooding on the region’s infrastructure. The normative design solutions will serve as the primary drawings of my GP2 project. The following page includes my proposed plan of work. 62JanuaryExploratory scenario developmentSite analysisResearch drawingsDesign strategiesNormative scenario developmentFinal designFebruary March April63PART II:  DESIGNING CLIMATE FUTURES6465INTRODUCTIONPart two of this graduate project leverages the scenario methodology and precedent explored in the previous sections to provide a framework for developing future climate visions for the region of Metro Vancouver. This graduate project is rooted in the idea that climate change is still an abstract concept, where it is difficult to understand and visualize the impacts of climate change at the local level. As a result decision-makers and the public are not motivated to invest in solutions for a problem that is not viewed as imminent. Through representation and visioning the goal of the project is to engage viewers in a discussion of how extreme, but possible climate scenarios, will impact the region, illustrating the urgency of future climate threats and revealing how design can be leveraged to mitigate these risks. This project leverages the following nine step scenario process (described in the previous section) to develop a future vision:The following sections provide a detailed account of the steps undertaken in the design process. 1. Identify project goal2. Determine process design3. Set scenario timeframe4. Identify the major stakeholders or actors5. Determine the scale of analysis6. Identify critical uncertainties/make a list of driving forces7. Synthesize information about possible futures into alternative futures8. Set a number of scenarios9. Select and finalize scenarios661. Identify project goal2. Determine process design3. Set scenario timeframe4. Identify the major stakeholders or actors5. Determine the scale of analysis6. Identify critical uncertainties/make a list of driving forces7. Synthesize information about possible futures into alternative futures8. Set a number of scenarios9. Select and finalize scenarios67STEP 1: IDENTIFY PROJECT GOALProject Goal: Use the scenario planning method to develop a future climate vision for the City of Richmond and leverage the skills of the landscape architect in representing future climate conditions and designing for these risks. Figure 23: 1m Flood Scenario68SITE CONTEXTBy the year 2100, in the Fraser River Delta, climate change scientists estimate that sea level will rise approximately 1.0 meters. In addition, the area is also expected to experience 0.2 meters of substance. As a result nearly all of the City of Richmond is at risk of climate change flooding, which is exacerbated by freshnet flooding from the Fraser River and increasing storm surges from the Georgia Strait. These conditions will require the City of Richmond to raise dikes to accommodate these changes. The city has begun the master planning process to examine dike upgrading.69Figure 24: Flood Scenarios70STEP 2-3: DETERMINE PROCESS DESIGN & SET SCENARIO TIMEFRAMEThis project is the exploration of a strategy to adapt to higher sea levels under extreme but possible scenarios: a 1m sea level rise in 2050 and a 3m sea level rise in 2100. Richmond’s dikes will not be able to handle these extreme conditions in either scenario.71STEP 4: IDENTIFY THE MAJOR STAKEHOLDERS OR ACTORSThe following list of stakeholders were compiled. This list seeks to be a comprehensive, but not exhaustive, list of the stakeholders (grouped by interest) in the region who have a vested interest in the future vision of the City of Richmond. 7273STEP 5: DETERMINE THE SCALE OF ANALYSISFigure 25: Site Map74STEP 6: IDENTIFY CRITICAL UNCERTAINTIES/MAKE A LIST OF DRIVING FORCESTemperature RiseWinter PrecipitationSummer PrecipitationExtreme Weather EventsFraser River SalinizationSubsidenceBiodiversity Loss3°C increase in 2050Winter Rainfall Increases by 10%Summer Rainfall Decreases by 50%1-in-500 flood events increased to 10% AEPSalt Wedge Moves East of Richmond0.2m by 2100Salmon and Migratory Birds of Pacific Flyway EndangeredOut of Project Scope: Ocean Acidification, Marine Heat Waves, Autonomous VehiclesCRITICAL UNCERTAINTIESDRIVING FORCESASSUMPTIONSTo simulate the process of stakeholder engagement a list of stakeholders were gathered in an attempt to understand the competing and aligned priorities which would help guide the City of Richmond. In addition maps of Richmond’s environmental conditions, urban fabric, cultural heritage and food production were produced to help determine priorities for the region. The identified stakeholders and mapping exercise informed a list of seven driving forces, which would shape the final design.75EnvironmentEcologically sensitive areas and historical waterways were mapped to illustrate the natural heritage of the region. Lying in the Fraser River Floodplain, Richmond provides critical habitat for many species of fish and wildlife, and important ecosystem services such as erosion control, shoreline stabilization and storm surge protection. Sea level rise threatens this habitat, intensifying the impacts of climate change.Driving Force: • minimize climate change impacts to wetland habitats, riparian areas and wildlife habitatsUrban FabricResidential (in red) and economic areas (in yellow) were mapped to help identify economic and residential priorities for the region. Driving Force: • minimize the loss of local commercial and industrial land. Relocate flood risk areas to higher ground• reduce risk of flood infrastructure failure76Pacific FlywayIndustrialResidential - High DensityResidential - Meduim DensityResidential - Low DensityWetlandLost StreamsRiparian CorridorEstuanrine HabitatParks & Open Space Figure 26: Environmental MappingFigure 27: Urban Fabric Mapping77Food ProductionDespite its urban nature, Richmond remains an important food producer for the region through its agricultural lands and commercial fisheries. The area is home to some of the region’s most fertile agricultural land, which also serves as important habitat for migrating bird species. Consequently the area’s farming activities have also had a negative impact on salmonid species, reducing habitat and increasing phosphorus pollution in the Fraser River.Driving Forces:• reduce impacts to agriculture production • enhance ecological services of agricultural land, supporting habitat for bird and salmon speciesCultural HeritageCultural heritage locations were mapped in the areas of recreation, agriculture, utilities, healthcare, emergency, government and education. Driving Forces:• preserve heritage buildings• increase opportunities for recreation78RecreationAgricultureUtilitiesHealthcareEmergency ServicesGovernmentEducationForage & PastureAgriculture Food StandFarms selling direct to consumerCommercial Fishing HarbourAgriculture Land-useFigure 28: Cultural Heritage MappingFigure 29: Food Production Mapping79Tidal WetlandLost Rivers RestoredStorm Surge BarrierBarrier IslandsNourished Tidal FlatUnmaintained DikePROPOSED PLAN: 2100DikeThe following is a regional climate change visioning strategy, which illustrates step 7 to 9 of the scenario planning process.Richmond’s current strategy of raising and fortifying the city with dikes is considered the most likely way forward, however beyond a 1m sea level rise, this strategy poses many serious technical, economical and societal consequences and limitations. This new vision acknowledges that Richmond might not be able to adapt to the extreme sea levels that occur when sea levels continue to rise. This plan envisions Richmond’s lowest lying area without dikes, a simple but logical solution where homes below 2m above sea level are relocated to higher ground. The plan leverages the accelerated rate of sea level rise to reconnection Richmond’s flood plain to the Fraser river, where select existing dikes are retired and unmaintained, left to erode with the river’s forces. Setback dikes, leverage urban and industrial land, while the new floodplain 80Elevated HighwayLow Lying Flood Areareceives seasonal flooding, which is eventually converted to intertidal aquaculture as sea levels continue to rise.  Richmond historic roots are preserved through the creation of a storm surge barrier at Steveston Harbour. The historic cannery on site provides a harsh reminder for local residents of the days when our local waters were teeming with salmon. Finally the western portion of Richmond is returned to the sea. Increasing sea levels and an eroding tidal marsh and tidal flat forced the city to acknowledge that they can no longer hold the line.But this doesn’t happen all at once. The next section illustrates the phasing of food production, dike infrastructure and natural habitat from now to 2050 and finally 2100.Figure 3081Presently, the north eastern section of Richmond, consists of primarily agricultural land. The area plays an important economic role for the region and a critical role in ensuring a safe and adequate food supply. First off, local producers begin to transition to new crops, moving away from the ubiquitous cranberry to ensure crop diversification.In 2050, the federal and provincial government developed a strain of diverse crops that are tolerant to salt water, to help local farmers respond to flooding from brackish waters and salt water intrusion. Shortly thereafter the City of Richmond constructs a large setback dike, along highway 99, turning much of the region’s agriculture into floodable land. A network of smaller dikes are built to protect and enclose agricultural buildings in the region and farmers are given subsidies to go “off the grid” in this new floodable landscape. Crops are interplanted with wetland species to store flood waters in the event of a flood and hugelkulture is employed on old field sides and underproductive land. Finally as the sea level continues to rise in 2100, high tide now overtops the now historic shoreline of east Richmond and the majority of the area’s agricultural land transitions to aquaculture food production.PHASING82202020502100 Figure 31: Food Production Phasing83In 2020, the city does not upgrade dike infrastructure but seeks to mitigate impacts of storm surges by investing in a mud motor off Sturgeon Banks to nourish the area’s tidal wetlands. In 2050 the city invests in a storm surge barrier in Steveston Harbour to protect the national historic site from rising seas and storm surges. In 2100 the city comes to terms with it’s losing battle with the sea and begins to retreat to higher land. 84202020502100 Figure 32: Dike Infrastructure Phasing85In 2020, the city begin program to deposit dredged sediment to reduce wave energy and nourish tidal flat. In 2050, the city encourages farmers to enhance bird and riparian habitat on agricultural lands. Soil fertility in the new floodable floodplain is improved as the lands are nourished with sediments deposited from seasonal freshnet floods. New, diverse crops are now planted to enhance the ecological services of the land. In 2100, the western edge of Richmond is transformed into a tidal marsh, were old streams are restored as new tidal channels. 86202020502100 Figure 33: Environmental Phasing87NORTH RICHMOND - PRESENTfallow field2020: PRESENT CONDITIONSRICHMOND’S EASTERN AGRICULTURAL LAND88cranberry bogFigure 3489intercropping (wetland)emergency roads (ood level)ecological ditchescows for grazingHÜGELKULTUR carbon sequestered by burying biochar and woody materialreduces subsidence through rainwater capture and soil creation decomposing logs retain moisture for crops, reducing need for irrigationFor years the lost logs of the Fraser River’s log boom have washed up on shore, damaging riparian habitat. In 2050 the City of Richmond leverages these wasted logs, salvaging them for hugelcutlure. Hugelculture creates a carbon sink, storing bio-char and composting logs and reduces the need for irrigation in Metro Vancouver’s increasingly dry summers.90intercropping (wetland)emergency roads (ood level)ecological ditchescows for grazingbiochar and decaying material release nutrientssalvaged logs & branches soil profilebiochar & composttopsoilFigure 3591wetland used to filter agriculture water before being released into drainage ditchwetland absorbs and stores water during flood eventsflood level (1-in-100 year flood event)NORTH RICHMOND - 205020502050: FLOOD EVENT92increasing temperatures allow for a greater diversity of  cropsrice cropsflooded rice fields used as rearing habitat for salmonzooplankton present in rice fields provide high quality food for salmongenetically modified, salt-tolerant plants withstand salt water intrusionFigure 36Figure 3793geoduck harvestingmussel harvestingfarmland transitions to intertidal aquaculture with rising sea levelsNORTH RICHMOND - 2010 - INTERTIDAL  AQUACULTUREhigh tide2100: LOW TIDE2100: HIGH TIDE94Figure 39Figure 3895west dike trial crest height: 3.5mestuarine tidal marshRICHMOND WEST DIKE: 2020PRESENTRICHMOND’S WEST DIKE2020: PRESENT CONDITIONS96Figure 40972050: FLOOD EVENT98In 2020 the City of Richmond decided to raise the dike to crest level of 5.5m, in anticipation of a 1m sea level rise. However, with changing weather pattern the city experiences a 1 in 150 year flood event, which overtops the dike and leads to mass flooding.City engineers determine a 8.5m dike will be required to mitigate against future floods. The increased dike height will contribute to coastal squeeze, and will eliminate views to the waterfront. The city determines it is no able to hold the line and begins a strategic retreat to higher ground. Figure 40Figure 4199west dike trial crest height: 5.5 mhigh tidecoastal squeezedike over-topped with storm surge 1.5 m or higher (1 in 500 year storm)RICHMOND WEST DIKE: 2050 - 1 M SEA LEVEL RISEwest dike trial crest height: 8.5 mRICHMOND WEST DIKE: 2100 PROPOSED DIKE HEIGHT2050: FLOOD EVENT2050: PROPOSED HEIGHT TO MITIGATE FUTURE FLOODS100Figure 43Figure 42101To mitigate the impacts of a rising sea, the city invests in a mud motar, relocating dredged sediment from the Fraser River to the edge of Sturgeon Banks. The dispersed sediment nourishes the tidal wetland, adding 5cm of sediment to the tidal flat each year. While the mud motor nourishes the tidal flat, it is not able to keep up with the rising sea. The western most tidal flats are drowned by 2100 (see next page).102Sediment is dredged from the Fraser RiverDredged sediment is disposed of at flood tide and transported by currentThe additional supply of fine sediment stimulates tidal marsh Dredged sediment is disposed of at flood tide and transported by current1232321Figure 44: Mud Motor103The additional supply of fine sediment stimulates tidal marsh 32100: MUD MOTOR2050: MUD MOTORPRESENT CONDITIONS: MUD MOTOR104Figure 47Figure 46Figure 45105materials with contaminants removedIn 2100 the western portion of Richmond is returned to the sea. The city begins to transition its lowest lying community infrastructure into wave barriers. Materials with contaminants are removed, the building is ‘opened-up’ for recreational explorers and the area surrounding is transitioned into a tidal wetland. The barrier serves as a reminder for the community for what once was. 2100: WAVE BARRIERPRESENT CONDITIONS106community infrastructure “opened up” for aquatic recreationmunicipal utility infrastructure removedFigure 49Figure 48107dockSTEVESTON HARBOUR: PRESENT CONDITIONSPacific salmon108dockPacific salmonDungeness crabGulf  of  Georgia Cannery (National Historic Site)Figure 50109Finally, in 2020, the city constructs a storm surge barrier to protect Richmond’s Steveston Harbour from rising sea levels and storm surges. In 2100, commercial fishing has halted to protect the declining wild salmon stock. To pay homage to its historical roots the area is transformed into an aquaculture public market. Mussel stockOyster cagesKelpSTEVESTON HARBOUR: 2100Floating wetland110Floating wetlandFigure 51111CONCLUSIONPost World War II, Herman Kahn stated “the best way to prevent nuclear war is to examine the possible consequences of nuclear war and widely publish the results.”110 The scenario planning method provides a concrete template for developing visions of the future, which can inform how we act in the present. The strength in scenario planning is that it requires us to examine and state our assumptions and driving forces, exposing our biases and revealing our blind spots. This methodology provides a convincing template for designers to examine complex systems, imagine a new context for design, and initiate a dialogue for how to disturb the present. 110  Thomas J. Chermack, Susan A. Lynham, and Wen-dy EA Ruona, “A Review of  Scenario Planning Lit-erature,” Futures Research Quarterly 17, no. 2 (2001): 7–32.112

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