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Fuel network analysis : describing vulnerabilities and resilience opportunities for the fuel transportation… Dobson, Bethany Jan 31, 2016

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   FUEL NETWORK ANALYSIS: DESCRIBING VULNERABILITIES AND RESILIENCE  OPPORTUNITIES FOR THE FUEL TRANSPORTATION NETWORK  OF B.C.’S SOUTHERN COASTAL COMMUNITIES  by  BETHANY DOBSON  BASc, University of British Columbia, 2012      A PROJECT SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF  THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF  MASTER OF SCIENCE (PLANNING)  in  THE FACULTY OF APPLIED SCIENCE  School of Community and Regional Planning              THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA January 2016  © Bethany Dobson, 2016  i   Table of Contents  List of Figures ................................................................................................................................ iii List of Tables .................................................................................................................................. v Executive Summary ....................................................................................................................... vi 1.0 Introduction .......................................................................................................................... 1 2.0 Significance.......................................................................................................................... 2 3.0 Purpose ................................................................................................................................. 3 4.0 Background .......................................................................................................................... 4 5.0 Disruptions ........................................................................................................................... 8 6.0 Methodology ...................................................................................................................... 12 7.0 Results ................................................................................................................................ 15 7.1 Current Network ............................................................................................................. 16 7.2 Disrupted Network ......................................................................................................... 19 7.3 Enhanced Network ......................................................................................................... 40 8.0 Recommendations .............................................................................................................. 61 9.0 Conclusion ......................................................................................................................... 63 Sources .......................................................................................................................................... 64        ii  List of Figures  Figure 1: 51 communities included in the study ............................................................................. 6 Figure 2: M7.3 Vancouver Earthquake (Province of BC 2015), used with permission from Emergency Management BC ........................................................................................................ 10 Figure 3: M7.0 Victoria Earthquake (Province of BC 2015), used with permission from Emergency Management BC ........................................................................................................ 11 Figure 4: Route options to West Vancouver from Vancouver (Source: Google Maps) ............... 13 Figure 5: Route options to Victoria from Delta (Source: Google Maps) ..................................... 13 Figure 6: Map of current people transportation system ................................................................ 14 Figure 7: Map of current gasoline transportation system ............................................................. 16 Figure 8: Diesel and jet fuel transportation system ...................................................................... 18 Figure 9: Gasoline transportation system with the Ironworkers Memorial Bridge removed ....... 22 Figure 10: Changes in the gasoline transportation system with the Ironworkers Memorial Bridge removed......................................................................................................................................... 23 Figure 11: Gasoline transportation system with the Lionsgate Bridge removed .......................... 24 Figure 12: Changes in the gasoline transportation system with the Lionsgate Bridge removed .. 25 Figure 13: Gasoline transportation system with the Pitt River Bridge removed .......................... 26 Figure 14: Changes in the gasoline transportation system with the Pitt River Bridge removed .. 27 Figure 15: Gasoline transportation system with the First Narrows blocked ................................. 28 Figure 16: Changes in the gasoline transportation system with the First Narrows channel blocked....................................................................................................................................................... 29 Figure 17: Gasoline transportation system with the Richmond ports removed ............................ 30 Figure 18: Changes in the gasoline transportation system with the Richmond ports removed .... 31 Figure 19: Gasoline transportation system with the Nanaimo ports removed .............................. 32 Figure 20: Changes in the gasoline transportation system with the Nanaimo ports removed ...... 33 Figure 21: Gasoline transportation system with the Powell River ports removed ....................... 34 Figure 22: Changes in the gasoline transportation system with the Powell River ports removed 35 Figure 23: Gasoline transportation system after a M7.3 earthquake under Vancouver ................ 36 Figure 24: Changes in the gasoline transportation system after a M7.3 earthquake under Vancouver ..................................................................................................................................... 37 Figure 25: Gasoline transportation system after a M7.0 earthquake under Victoria .................... 38 Figure 26: Changes in the gasoline transportation system after a M7.0 earthquake under Victoria....................................................................................................................................................... 39 Figure 27: Gasoline transportation system with a new marine link between Burnaby – Sunshine Coast ............................................................................................................................................. 43 Figure 28: Changes in the gasoline transportation system with a new marine link between Burnaby – Sunshine Coast ............................................................................................................ 44 Figure 29: Gasoline transportation system with a new marine link between Burnaby - Comox . 45 iii  Figure 30: Changes in the gasoline transportation system with a new marine link between Burnaby – Comox ......................................................................................................................... 46 Figure 31: Gasoline transportation system with a new marine link between Nanaimo – Comox 47 Figure 32: Changes in the gasoline transportation system with a new marine link between Nanaimo – Comox ........................................................................................................................ 48 Figure 33: Changes in the gasoline transportation system with a new marine link between Burnaby – Squamish ..................................................................................................................... 49 Figure 34: Changes in the gasoline transportation system with a new marine link between Burnaby – Squamish ..................................................................................................................... 50 Figure 35: Gasoline transportation system after a M7.3 Vancouver earthquake with a new marine link between Burnaby - Squamish ................................................................................................ 51 Figure 36: Gasoline transportation system after an M7.0 Victoria earthquake  with a new marine link between Burnaby - Comox .................................................................................................... 52 Figure 37: Changes in the gasoline transportation system after an M7.0 Victoria earthquake with a new marine link between Burnaby – Comox ............................................................................. 53 Figure 38: Gasoline transportation system after an M7.0 Victoria earthquake with a new  marine link between Nanaimo – Comox................................................................................................... 54 Figure 39: Changes in the gasoline transportation system after an M7.0 Victoria earthquake with a new marine link between Nanaimo – Comox ............................................................................ 55 Figure 40: Gasoline transportation system after an M7.0 Victoria earthquake with a new marine link  between Burnaby – Powell River/Gibsons ........................................................................... 55 Figure 41: Changes in the gasoline transportation system after an M7.0 Victoria earthquake with a new marine link between Burnaby – Powell River/Gibsons ..................................................... 56 Figure 43: Gasoline transportation system after an M7.0 Victoria earthquake with new marine links to the USA ............................................................................................................................ 57 Figure 44: Changes in the gasoline transportation system after an M7.0 Victoria earthquake with new  marine links to the USA ....................................................................................................... 58 Figure 45: Gasoline transportation system with First Narrows Blocked and new marine links to the USA ......................................................................................................................................... 59 Figure 46: Changes to the gasoline transportation system with First Narrows Blocked and new marine links to the USA ................................................................................................................ 60    iv  List of Tables  Table 1: List of communities in the study area ............................................................................... 7 Table 2: Hazards and their potential disruptions to the fuel transportation system ........................ 9 Table 3: Scores for gasoline versus diesel/jet fuel movement ...................................................... 17 Table 4: Number of links for the shortest route to a gasoline distribution point in disrupted network scenarios.......................................................................................................................... 20 Table 5: Number of links for in the shortest route to a gasoline distribution point for enhanced network scenarios.......................................................................................................................... 41    v  Executive Summary  This paper examines fuel distribution as part of a three year project sponsored by the Canadian Marine Environmental Observation Prediction and Response (MEOPAR) network to address transportation resilience for coastal communities in British Columbia’s southern west coast.  Its purpose is to illustrate how fuel is distributed through the region, which areas are vulnerable to disruption events, and opportunities for increasing resiliency.  While conducting research through interviews with government and industry employees, it was found that few stakeholders understand how fuel is transported to and within in B.C.  This paper addresses the knowledge gap by summarizing the study area’s fuel distribution network and how changes in one link affect the rest of the network.  For remote communities in particular, removing one link can significantly change their path to a fuel source.  Maps were chosen as a way to illustrate reliance on different modes of transportation.  Beginning in Port Moody or Burnaby, gasoline is transported to other communities via trucks, pipeline, rail, and marine modes.  Some parts of the network have enough redundancy that removing a critical piece of infrastructure, such as a bridge or port, has minimal effect on the overall network.  For other communities, however, key infrastructure is essential for maintaining their fuel supply line.  In the analysis, each municipality represents a node.  Links characterize existing connections between two places – such as a road, bridge, or marine shipping route.  Each community is scored depending on the number of links on the shortest route between it and a fuel distribution source.  Different scenarios are explored by adding or removing links to see how the shortest path changes between communities and a distribution point.  The disrupted network scenarios include bridge closures, port closures, a blockage in the First Narrows channel, and two earthquakes as detailed in the 2015 Provincial Government’s “B.C. Earthquake Immediate Response Plan.”  The enhanced network scenarios include additional marine links to Squamish, Powell River, Gibsons, and Vancouver Island from either the Lower Mainland or United States.  The two disruption scenarios that have the biggest effects are a Victoria-based earthquake and a blockage in the First Narrows channel.  The most significant results in the enhanced network are created by adding marine links to Squamish, Comox, and the USA.  These score changes to do necessarily correspond to increased difficulty in transporting fuel or additional vulnerabilities if a community is further down the supply chain.  Instead, fuel availability during a natural disaster will depend on how governments and the transport sector respond as well as possible changes in the demand side.      1  1.0 Introduction  This paper examines the transportation network between the most populous 49 communities in British Columbia’s southern west coast, plus an additional two communities for comparison reasons.  Of these 51 communities, 33 are highly dependent on marine transportation because they are either on Vancouver Island, the Sunshine Coast, or in the Gulf Islands.  The remaining 18 communities are in the Lower Mainland.  This project is part of a larger study funded by the Canadian Marine Environmental Observation Prediction and Response (MEOPAR) network which seeks to enhance the resilience of marine transportation systems that serve BC’s coastal and island communities.  The three year project aims to examine the transportation of fuel, food, and medical supplies during emergency events.    We1 decided to start by analyzing fuel transportation because we believed it would have the simplest network.  This paper builds on our work by developing a quantitative method for describing BC’s southern coastal communities’ reliance on different modes of transportation for fuel distribution.  The analysis is used to question which links are vulnerable to different kinds of disruptions.  Based on the identified vulnerabilities, other scenarios are analyzed to see what improvements could be made to the marine transportation system to increase its resilience.  Our research relies on information sources beyond academic studies and journal articles.  We discovered a large amount of the background information through interviews and newspaper articles.  Since September 2014, our research group has interviewed stakeholders from both the public and private sectors – most of which have been with the public sector in municipal or provincial government roles.  We also reached out to many industry contacts, although the private sector was generally harder to access.  We had UBC Behavioural Research Ethics Board approval for these interviews.  In total, our research team has conducted 12 formal interviews so far plus various meetings and phone calls.  On the public side, we have talked with representatives from Emergency Management BC, the Ministry of Transportation of Infrastructure, Nanaimo Port Authority, and Powell River Regional District, as well as individuals involved with planning for the Vancouver 2010 Olympics.  On the private side, we have been in contact with SeaSpan Ferries, the BC Chamber of Shipping, and North Arm Transportation.  Although each interviewee provided us with important pieces of information, it took about a year of research to put together a whole picture of fuel distribution is B.C.  We often found that government employees do not know how companies ship fuel, how often shipments are needed, or how much fuel is consumed.  At the same time, private companies are unaware of their role in municipal and provincial plans, particularly during emergency events.                                                   1 Our multi-disciplinary research team is comprised of three professors and three masters students, including myself, at the University of British Columbia.  Dr. Stephanie Chang and I are both in the School of Community And Regional Planning (SCARP); Dr. Hadi Dowlatabadi and Xuesi Shen are in the Institute for Resources, Environment and Sustainability (IRES); and Dr. Terje Haukaas and Allanah Brown are in the Civil Engineering Department. 2  This paper2 illustrates the study area’s fuel distribution network and where each community sits in the supply chain. It is intended help stakeholders understand vital transportation links, vulnerable points, and opportunities for resilience measures.  2.0 Significance  In today’s world, people rely on transportation.  Except for a few isolated communities, no person or place is completely self-sufficient.  Whether through movement of people, food, goods, or fuel, transportation is a key component for livelihood and well-being.  In British Columbia, transportation is accomplished through road, rail, air, and marine modes.  In southern B.C., most people and goods move by land and water.  People primarily travel by roads or ferries while goods travel by roads, rail, and barges.  Fuel also moves by roads, rail, tankers, tugboats, and pipeline.  While transportation is an enabler of different activities, it can also produce vulnerability in a complex system – particularly when the system has little or no redundancy (Lownes et al. 2011).  In Metro Vancouver, for example, two bridges make the North Shore accessible from Vancouver.  If there is an accident on the Lionsgate Bridge, however, the Ironworkers Memorial Bridge quickly experiences increased traffic congestion.  If something were to happen to both bridges, passenger vehicle movement between the two areas would be severely limited.  Similarly, goods and fuel movement in southern B.C. do not have abundant redundancy in their systems either.  Trucking routes include the same roads as personal vehicle use whereas rail uses different routes with its own bridges.  Moreover, there is limited goods storage capacity within B.C.’s communities.  As distribution patterns have moved to “just-in-time” deliveries, the system has become increasingly vulnerable to transportation disruptions (Pathman 2007).  For fuel, these vulnerabilities arise from two factors: fuel’s long supply chain and lack of storage capacity.  Because of its long supply chain, fuel availability in BC is particularly vulnerable to transportation disruptions outside the province.  Most of B.C.’s oil products come from Alberta, Saskatchewan, or Washington State in the United States, some of which originates in Alaska.  B.C. refines some of the gasoline consumed in the province from crude oil from Alberta.    Combined with limited storage capacity, any disruptions along the supply chain are felt in each component.  Reserves can be held at any point, such as tank farms at ports, retail gas stations, or in individual vehicles.  However, there are limited on-site storage facilities in B.C.  Consequently, British Columbians have experienced price jumps in gasoline because of out-of-province issues.  For example, in February 2012 a fire at the BP Cherry Point Refinery caused elevated gas prices in Vancouver for about four months (CBC 2012).  Furthermore, in 2013 an outage at California refinery caused fuel price jumps along the west coast in both Canada and the USA (Heatherington 2013).    Currently, fuel movement is a topical subject in B.C. because of recent discussions regarding new pipelines and pipeline expansion projects.  Regardless of the environmental, economic and                                                  2 My role in the project involved participating in most of the interviews and conducting all the analysis in this report. 3  safety arguments for either side of the debate (Ronback 2013, Green and Jackson 2015), fuel is necessary for our society’s current system.  During discussions with industry representatives, it was noted that fuel movement does not have “social licence” in the public discord (Staynor 2015).  Politicians are hesitant to discuss society’s heavy reliance on fuel.  The reliance on fuel transportation is discussed even less.  Nevertheless, it is important to understand B.C.’s current transportation system.  The literature for emergency management typically explores the aftermath in three time scales: during and immediately after an event, 72 hours after, and 2 weeks after.  City residents are encouraged to prepare themselves to survive for 72 hours without supplies.  For some remote communities, however, it may take up to 2 weeks to re-establish transportation.  Understanding B.C.’s network, its vulnerabilities, and possible hazards is the first step to addressing resiliency options.  3.0 Purpose  This paper analyzes fuel movements for 51 B.C. communities in the Lower Mainland, Vancouver Island, southern Gulf Islands, and the Sunshine Coast.  These regions are increasingly relying on just-in-time delivery systems.  Just-in-time delivery systems have changed transportation and warehousing methods around the world.  Although this method improves economic efficiency by decreasing warehousing costs, it requires companies to predict the demand for their stocks to avoid an undersupply or oversupply (Zhuang 1994).  It also increases vulnerability because of the dependence on constant, reliable transportation.  Ford Motor Company of Canada experienced the negative effects of this system in 1995 when a rail strike affected transportation of parts.  The company estimated that their facilities in Oakville lost $90 million in lost output for their top minivan because of the weeklong strike (Heinrich 1995).  Vancouver Island’s food security issues also highlight the drawbacks of just-in-time delivery.  The island has a population of over 750,000, which is about 17% of B.C.’s total population, but only 2-4 days of food reserves at normal consumption (MacNair 2004).  There is one food warehouse on the island.  Moreover, the island only produces 5-10% of its food needs (MacNair 2004).  The majority of grocery stores rely on constant marine shipping from the mainland to stay well-stocked.   Likewise, the Sunshine Coast and Gulf Islands also rely on constant marine transportation for food.  A small marine disruption could produce significant adverse effects for the people living in these communities.    Although food is not the focus of this paper, the state of B.C.’s food security demonstrates the extent to which communities in this region rely on constant, dependable transportation.  Similarly, fuel relies on just-in-time delivery.  Vancouver Island is estimated to have 5 days of fuel reserves (Dahlgren 2015), although similar estimates do exist for the Lower Mainland.  This paper examines how fuel is distributed throughout the region, what modes are used, and what are the most vulnerable links.  Opportunities for increasing resilience are found by analyzing alternative routes as well as adding marine links to create redundancy.   4  4.0 Background  The information for this section was largely gathered from interviews with government or industry stakeholders, newspaper articles, and industry websites.    B.C. receives its oil from Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Washington State via pipeline, rail, marine transportation, and truck.  Most if it enters the province already refined, although some crude oil is refined at the Chevron Refinery in Burnaby.  For the most part, fuel is shipped by pipeline, road or rail whenever possible.  Reliable land access is the cheapest way for a community to get fuel.    About 60% of the Lower Mainland’s fuel comes from the refineries near Edmonton through the Trans-Mountain Pipeline (TMPL) (Trans Mountain 2015).  The TMPL transports oil products by batches and has a capacity of 300,000 barrels a day, which is about 1.74 million m3/year.  Of this, almost 20% (330,000 m3/year) go to the Chevron Burnaby Refinery, just over 25% (458,000 m3/year) are marine exports, and the remaining 55% (950,000 m3/year) continue through the TMPL to Puget Sound (King 2015).  B.C. also receives a significant amount of fuel from rail transportation, which has increased in recent years.  In 2013, over 3.6 million m3 of petroleum products were shipped by rail in B.C. including diesel, propane, and aviation fuel.  In the same year, about 260,000 m3 of crude oil was transported via rail in B.C., the majority of which was from Saskatchewan although some also came from Alberta or within B.C. (Pynn 2015).  Shipments of diesel and jet fuel also come from Washington State (Vancouver Airport Fuel Facilities Corporation 2012).  The three main providers of fuel are British Petroleum at Cherry Point, the Shell Refinery in Puget Sound, Tesoro’s Anacortes Refinery.  They receive the majority of their crude oil from marine tankers from Alaska that travel through the Juan de Fuca Strait (Tesoro 2015).  They also receive some oil from Canada through the TMPL.  Although the Washington State refineries produce gasoline, US regulations require different levels of benzene, ethanol and octane than Canadian regulations (Environment Canada 2015).  The mixtures are compatible, however, and during an emergency Washington State’s gasoline could be a potential resource for B.C.  The Lower Mainland has three main fuel storage and distribution centres: Suncor Energy Burrard Products Terminal in Port Moody, Imperial Oil Company in Port Moody, and Chevron’s refinery in Burnaby.  Although both centres in Port Moody used to have refining capabilities, they no longer refine crude oil.  Vancouver Island and the Sunshine Coast receive most of its fuel from the distribution centres on the Lower Mainland.  In addition, some diesel and jet fuel is shipped directly to Vancouver Island from Washington State.  There are a number of tank farms on Vancouver Island.  Suncor and Imperial Oil both have tank farms at Nanaimo.  There is a storage centre at Cobble Hill, which is hereafter referred to as the municipality district of Cowichan Valley C.  The Canadian Navy base has a tank farm at Esquimalt, but it is not included in this paper’s analysis.  5  On the Sunshine Coast, there are two tank farms near Powell River.  One is owned by Imperial Oil and the other is owned by Catalyst Paper.  From tank farms, fuel is moved to loading areas via pipeline.  There is also a pipeline from the Chevron Burnaby Refinery to Vancouver International Airport.  For local distribution, the majority of fuel is distributed to pumping stations with trucks, although some movement occurs via rail on both the Lower Mainland and Vancouver Island.  For southern Vancouver Island, goods are primarily transported to the island by Island Tug and Barge ships or SeaSpan ferries.  Limited fuel and goods movement happens through BC Ferries because the regulations and costs are prohibitive.  Instead, BC Ferries primarily provide movement to people.  In summary, B.C.’s fuel network relies on four different transportation modes: pipeline, rail, marine, and roads.  The lack of storage facilities mean that communities rely on a constant flow of fuel from out-of-province sources in the supply chain.    This paper will describe the gasoline transportation system for 51 communities around the Strait of Georgia in southern B.C.  These communities fit into four geographic categories: Lower Mainland, Sunshine Coast, Vancouver Island, and Gulf Islands.  Alberta/Saskatchewan and USA are also considered in the analysis as origin points, although USA is not part of the existing gasoline network.  The communities were chosen as the census subdivisions with the largest populations in the study area according to 2011 Census data.  Of the original 50 communities, Greater Vancouver A was not considered in the analysis because it includes two geographically separate areas: the University of British Columbia Endowment lands and the area north of Metro Vancouver.   Bowen Island and Sunshine Coast A were added to the list for comparison reasons.  Although Bowen Island has a small population of approximately 3,500 (BC Stats), its connection to the mainland is unique.  The ferry ride to West Vancouver is short enough that a significant proportion of residents commute to the mainland.  Sunshine Coast A was added to better capture the route between Powell River and West Vancouver via the Sunshine Coast.  The communities included in the study area are labeled in the following map:  6   Figure 1: 51 communities included in the study    7  The full list of communities is in the table below:  Table 1: List of communities in the study area Lower Mainland Vancouver Island Sunshine Coast Gulf Islands Burnaby Campbell River Gibsons Bowen Island Coquitlam Central Saanich Powell River Capital F Delta Colwood Sunshine Coast A Capital G Langley (District) Comox Sechelt  Langley (City) Comox Valley A   North Vancouver (District) Comox Valley B  (Lazo North)   North Vancouver (City) Comox Valley C (Puntledge - Black Creek)   Maple Ridge Courtenay   New Westminster Cowichan Valley C   Pitt Meadows Esquimalt   Port Coquitlam Ladysmith   Port Moody Langford   Richmond Metchosin   Squamish Nanaimo   Surrey Nanaimo A   Vancouver Nanaimo E   West Vancouver Nanaimo G   White Rock North Cowichan    North Saanich    Oak Bay    Parksville    Qualicum Beach    Saanich    Sidney    Sooke    Victoria    View Royal      8  5.0 Disruptions  For the purposes of this analysis, a disruption is defined as an event that stops normal operations of fuel movement in the province.  Disruptions to the transportation system could be physical or socio-economic.    Physical hazards include the following:  Earthquake  Flood  Rockfall  Landslide  Sea level rise  Fire  Terrorism  Industrial accident  Mechanical failure (of docking facilities, vessel, etc.)  Socio-economic disruptions include labour strikes and labour shortages.    These events could happen individually or in tangent: for example, an earthquake could cause an underwater landslide that causes flooding.  Moreover, physical disruptions could lead to socio-economic disruptions.  B.C.’s marine transportation industry is relatively small and specialized.  In the event of an emergency, the amount of available labour needed for marine vessels could be a serious impediment (Stradiotti 2015).  Furthermore, some events would potentially change both the supply and demand side of fuel usage, while others would only change the supply side.  A large earthquake, for instance, could damage transportation facilities.  At the same time, the destruction would likely require significant resources for emergency response.  On the other side of the spectrum, a labour strike would not directly affect demand for fuel in an area.  If there is possibility of a shortage, however, people may react by hoarding fuel.  This scenario would change the demand side characteristics as well as the supply side.  Each hazard could have a variety of consequences that would impact the fuel transportation system, as shown in Table 2.   9   Table 2: Hazards and their potential disruptions to the fuel transportation system Hazard Potential Disruptions Earthquake Damaged pipeline, damaged rail lines, road closures, bridge failures, port closures Flood Flooded rail lines, flooded roads, port closures Rockfall Road closures, rail closures Landslide Damaged pipeline, rail closures, road closures, channel blockage Sea level rise Flooded rail lines, flooded roads, port closures Fire Damaged pipeline, damaged rail lines, road closures, road closures Terrorism Damaged pipeline, rail closures, road closures, port closures, channel blockage Industrial accident Road closures, rail closures, port closures Mechanical failure (of port or vessel) Port closures, channel blockage Labour shortage/strike Port closures, reduction of marine transportation   In the following analysis, the effects of bridge failures, closed ports, and a blockage in the First Narrows channel are applied to the fuel transportation network.  Road closures are not considered because most communities in the study area exist within a road network with multiple routes.  For critical roads that provide the only link between two communities, a road closure would completely cut land access.  Instead, air or marine modes would have to be used as alternatives.  Two earthquake scenarios are also examined.  The B.C. Provincial Government’s “B.C. Earthquake Immediate Response Plan” describes two worst-case seismic scenarios, which were created by Natural Resources Canada (NRCan) for emergency planning and preparedness purposes.  Both are major, shallow earthquakes with an epicentre near Greater Vancouver or Greater Victoria.  The effects of an M7.3 earthquake beneath Vancouver are shown in Figure 2 below:  10   Figure 2: M7.3 Vancouver Earthquake (Province of BC 2015), used with permission from Emergency Management BC  If such a scenario should occur, all bridges would be closed until they are inspected and declared safe to use.  Unfortunately, some older bridges are expected to require significant repairs and may be closed for weeks.  These include the Patullo, Knight Streeet, Arthur Laing, Oak Street, Alex Fraser, and Queensborough bridges (Insurance Bureau of Canada 2013.    Richmond, Delta, and areas of Surrey are expected to experience significant liquefaction (Bertok 1986, Chillarige et al 1997, Molnar 2011).  The ports in these areas would likely be closed in the aftermath due to damages.  In addition, the Fraser River’s shipping channel would most likely be 11  closed due to underwater landslides.  Already, it is constantly dredged and models show that relatively small earth tremors could trigger an underwater landslide large enough to close the shipping channels for some time (Hart et al. 1992).  The other scenario is a M7.0 earthquake underneath Victoria, as pictured in Figure 3.   Figure 3: M7.0 Victoria Earthquake (Province of BC 2015), used with permission from Emergency Management BC  12  As can be expected, an earthquake under Victoria would not damage the Lower Mainland as much as an earthquake under Vancouver.  Lower Mainland damages are still expected to include the Delta, Richmond, and Surrey Ports as well as the Patullo and Knight Street bridges.  For this analysis, it is assumed a Victoria Earthquake would damage the Cobble Hill port facilities at Cowichan Valley C as well as the North Saanich terminals.  In contrast, Nanaimo’s damage is treated as minimal with port operations resuming within a few days.  6.0 Methodology  The following analysis examines the study area’s gasoline transportation network.  Each municipality represents a node.  Links characterize existing connections between two places – such as a road, bridge, or marine shipping route.  Each community is scored depending on the number of links on the shortest route between it and a fuel distribution source.    Port Moody and Burnaby are the two distribution points on the Lower Mainland.  From here, fuel is transported to places in the Lower Mainland, Sunshine Coast, Gulf Islands, and Vancouver Island.  For Vancouver Island, Nanaimo and Cowichan Valley C have tank farms that act as distribution points once fuel reaches the island.  Geographic distance is not directly factored into the scores.  The distance between a score of 3 and a score of 4 is different between each community.  Generally, however, as the scores increases so does the distance from a fuel distribution point.  Because a higher score represents a higher number of links between a community and fuel distribution point, it is assumed there are more opportunities for vulnerable links.  Vulnerable links are considered to be major bridges, marine links, and critical roads that do not have an alternative route.  These links in the transportation network do not have redundancy.  Unlike the normal road network, if one of these links is removed then there is no alternative direct path.  Instead, one would have to choose a different route altogether.    In some instances, the alternative route may not be too different.  For example, imagine traveling from Vancouver to West Vancouver.  Normally one would use the Lionsgate Bridge, shown as Option 1 in Figure 3 below.  If that bridge were removed, the route would instead go from Vancouver to North Vancouver via the Ironworkers Memorial Bridge, then to West Vancouver, as shown in Option 2.  13   Figure 4: Route options to West Vancouver from Vancouver (Source: Google Maps) In other examples, however, the route change is more extreme.  Consider a person traveling from Delta to Victoria.  The ferry goes to North Saanich so the route is Delta  North Saanich  Central Saanich  Saanich  Victoria.  This only has one critical link: the ferry connection.  Without the Delta – North Saanich ferry link, however, the route requires the West Vancouver – Nanaimo ferry link.  The alternative route is Delta  Richmond  Vancouver  West Vancouver  Nanaimo  Nanaimo A  Ladysmith  North Cowichan  Cowichan Valley C  Langford  View Royal  Saanich  Victoria.  As can be seen from the map below, this has five critical connections.   Figure 5: Route options to Victoria from Delta (Source: Google Maps)  Option 1 Option 2 Option 1 Option 2 14  The system for moving people is different than the system for moving fuel.  People can utilize roads and BC Ferries, whereas fuel movement includes other marine links such as tankers and barges.  The links available to people are show in Figure 6.  In all maps, note that the lines represent connections between the 51 selected communities, but not the actual road network or path.  Figure 6: Map of current people transportation system  To understand the current fuel distribution system, each community is given a rating based on the number of links to a fuel distribution site.  The gasoline distribution sites include the facilities and tank farms in Port Moody and Burnaby, which are each given a score of 1.  The communities immediately adjacent are given a score of 2, and so forth, to illustrate how far down the supply chain each place is in the current fuel distribution system.  Critical links are then removed to see how the ratings change.    For the earthquake scenarios, ports, bridges, and critical roads are removed to model predicted damage.  Marine links are added to examine opportunities for improving resilience by decreasing the number of links between a community and a fuel source.  Rail lines are shown on the maps because they are used for fuel transportation.  They are not included in the analysis, however, because rail is considered to be more vulnerable to physical 15  hazards than roads.  B.C.’s rail bridges are older than the road bridges and are expected to fail in the event of an earthquake (Andrews 2015).  For these reasons, it is assumed that if a road connection is removed, then the rail connection is removed as well.  In the earthquake scenarios, rail is not shown on the maps.  7.0 Results  The following section contains maps which illustrate the fuel transportation systems in the study area.  Each community is coloured to show its distance from a distribution point.  Pink represents a score of 1, meaning there is a distribution point within that community.  In the current gasoline system, the colours change in approximately concentric circles on the Lower Mainland that radiate outwards from Port Moody and Burnaby.  On Vancouver Island, Nanaimo and Cowichan Valley C have the lowest score.  As fuel travels north up Vancouver Island, each communities’ rating gets higher.  The diesel and jet fuel transportation system look similar except that Nanaimo and Cowichan Valley C on Vancouver Island are also pink.  As a result, the communities on Vancouver Island have reduced scores.  For connections, black lines represent a network of roads.  Orange lines are critical routes, meaning there is only one road access between the two communities.  For example, if the Sea-to-Sky highway between West Vancouver and Squamish was closed, no alternative back road can be used conveniently instead because the only other route is through Pemberton and the Fraser Valley.  The red lines represent bridge crossings.  In some cases there might be more than one bridge crossing, like the three between Vancouver and Richmond.  In others, the red line represents only one crossing, such as the Golden Ears Bridge between Maple Ridge and the District of Langley.  The dark blue dotted lines represent estimates for routes by private commercial transportation companies including Island Tug and Barge, SeaSpan, and North Arm Transportation.  Although some of the private shipping companies do not share their exact shipping routes, the major commercial ports in the Lower Mainland are known to be Tilbury and Deltaport in Delta, Westridge Marine Terminal in Burnaby, the tank farms in Burnaby and Port Moody, as well as facilities in Richmond and Surrey.  On Vancouver Island, the major ports are in Duke Point in North Saanich, Cobble Hill in Cowichan Valley C, and Nanaimo.    The light blue dotted lines are BC Ferries crossings.  The gray line connected to Burnaby represents the TransMountain Pipeline.  Rail is represented by purple lines.    16  7.1 Current Network  For B.C’s current gasoline fuel network, the community scores ranged between 1 and 8, as shown Figure 7 below.   Figure 7: Map of current gasoline transportation system  B.C.’s current diesel and jet fuel network look slightly different because B.C. imports these resources directly from Washington State.  Jet fuel is trucked to Vancouver International Airport (YVR) and occasionally fuel is barged directly from Washington State to Vancouver Island.  Because of these routes, the new distribution points Nanaimo, Cowichan Valley C, and Richmond are assigned a score of 1.  This has a cascading effect on Vancouver Island and Gulf Island communities where all their scores are reduced by 1, as shown in Table 3.   17    Table 3: Scores for gasoline versus diesel/jet fuel movement Community Gasoline Diesel and Jet Fuel Bowen Island 4 4 Burnaby 1 1 Campbell River 8 7 Capital F 3 2 Capital G 3 2 Central Saanich 5 4 Colwood 4 3 Comox 8 7 Comox Valley A 6 5 Comox Valley B (Lazo North) 8 7 Comox Valley C (Puntledge - Black Creek) 7 6 Coquitlam 2 2 Courtenay 7 6 Cowichan Valley C 2 1 Delta 3 2 Esquimalt 5 4 Gibsons 4 2 Ladysmith 4 3 Langford 3 2 Langley (District) 4 3 Langley (City) 4 3 Maple Ridge 5 4 Metchosin 4 3 Nanaimo 2 1 Nanaimo A 3 2 Nanaimo E 3 2 Nanaimo G 4 3 New Westminster 2 2 North Cowichan 3 2 North Saanich 4 3 North Vancouver (District) 4 4 North Vancouver (City) 3 3 Oak Bay 6 5 Parksville 5 4 Pitt Meadows 4 4 Port Coquitlam 3 3 Port Moody 1 1 Powell River 4 2 Qualicum Beach 5 4 Richmond 3 1 Saanich 5 4 Sechelt 5 3 Sidney 5 4 Sooke 5 4 Squamish 4 4 Sunshine Coast A 6 3 18  Surrey 3 2 Vancouver 2 2 Victoria 6 5 View Royal 4 3 West Vancouver 3 3 White Rock 4 3   The lower scores and new routes are illustrated in Figure 8 below.   Figure 8: Diesel and jet fuel transportation system  The scores and routes for diesel and jet fuel demonstrate what the gasoline network could look like if B.C. imported gasoline from the United States.  In the event of an emergency, such as closure of the Trans-Mountain Pipeline, this could provide a possible solution.    19  7.2 Disrupted Network  The following series of maps explores how disruptions to the current gasoline network would change each community’s rating.  For most scenarios, community ratings do not change as links are removed.  For example, removing the Arthur Liang Bridge does not change Richmond’s score because the Knight Street Bridge and Oak Street Bridge still provide a transportation option.  In contrast, other links increased scores by as much as four to bring communities on Vancouver Island to a rating as high as 12.      Removal of the following links was found to change communities’ scores:  Ironworkers Memorial Bridge  Lionsgate Bridge  Pitt River Bridge  Blockage in the First Narrows  Richmond Port  Nanaimo Port  Cowichan Valley C Port  Powell River Port.  Two earthquake scenarios are also considered.  For the M7.3 Vancouver earthquake, scores increased by three points in Powell River with smaller changes in a few communities in the Lower Mainland and Vancouver Island.  For the M7.0 Victoria earthquake, scores increased by as much as six points in southern Vancouver Island.  Although removing the other links did not change any communities’ ratings, it is important to note that these scenarios would still affect the transportation network significantly.  Similar to how to the closure of a major roadway causes increased traffic on other routes, taking away any link would increase movement via the other fuel transportation modes.  Ultimately, the number of equipment and personnel could become a limiting factor to any of the scenarios.  The scores for the current system are compared to the changes in the disrupted network in Table 3 on the following page.  The removal of Pitt River Bridge has the smallest effect on the system whereas the removal of Nanaimo Port has the largest effect. 20  Table 4: Number of links for the shortest route to a gasoline distribution point in disrupted network scenarios Community Removal Scenarios Current Ironworkers Memorial Bridge Lionsgate Bridge Pitt River Bridge Richmond Port Nanaimo Port Powell River Port Block First Narrows Channel Vancouver Earthquake Victoria Earthquake Bowen Island 4 4 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 Burnaby 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Campbell River 8 8 8 8 8 12 8 10 8 8 Capital F 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 5 3 6 Capital G 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 5 3 6 Central Saanich 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 10 Colwood 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 6 4 8 Comox 8 8 8 8 8 12 8 10 8 8 Comox Valley A 6 6 6 6 6 10 6 8 6 6 Comox Valley B (Lazo North) 8 8 8 8 8 12 8 10 8 8 Comox Valley C (Puntledge - Black Creek) 7 7 7 7 7 11 7 9 7 7 Coquitlam 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 Courtenay 7 7 7 7 7 11 7 9 7 7 Cowichan Valley C 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 4 2 6 Delta 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 3 Esquimalt 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 7 5 9 Gibsons 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 Ladysmith 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 6 4 4 Langford 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 5 3 7 Langley (District) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 Langley (City) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 Maple Ridge 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 Metchosin 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 6 4 8 Nanaimo 2 2 2 2 2 6 2 4 2 2 Nanaimo A 3 3 3 3 3 5 3 5 3 3 Nanaimo E 3 3 3 3 3 7 3 5 3 3 Nanaimo G 4 4 4 4 4 8 4 6 4 4 New Westminster 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 North Cowichan 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 5 3 5 North Saanich 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 7 11 North Vancouver (District) 4 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 North Vancouver (City) 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Oak Bay 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 10 Parksville 5 5 5 5 5 9 5 7 5 5 Pitt Meadows 4 4 4 6 4 4 4 4 4 4 Port Coquitlam 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Port Moody 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Powell River 4 4 4 4 7 4 7 4 7 7 Qualicum Beach 5 5 5 5 5 9 5 7 5 5 Richmond 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 5 3 Saanich 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 7 5 9 21  Sechelt 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 Sidney 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 8 12 Sooke 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 7 5 9 Squamish 4 4 5 4 4 4 4 4  4 Sunshine Coast A 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Surrey 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Vancouver 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 Victoria 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 10 View Royal 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 6 4 8 West Vancouver 3 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 White Rock 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4   22  There are nine bridges in the study area of this analysis plus the George Massey Tunnel, which is treated as a bridge because it is scheduled to be rebuilt as one within the next ten years (B.C. Ministry of Transportation and Infrastructure 2015).  All of them are located in the Lower Mainland.  For each of the bridge scenarios considered, there are minimal changes in the scores because the alternative routes either add only one or no additional links to communities.  The first scenario removes the Ironworkers Memorial Bridge, as shown in the figures below.  This increases the rating of both the District and City of North Vancouver by 1 because the alternate route is to go over the Lions Gate Bridge and through West Vancouver instead.  Figure 9 shows the new ratings for all the communities while Figure 10 only shows scores that have increased.    Figure 9: Gasoline transportation system with the Ironworkers Memorial Bridge removed 23   Figure 10: Changes in the gasoline transportation system with the Ironworkers Memorial Bridge removed  The second scenario shows ratings and connections without the Liongate Bridge.  This increases the rating for West Vancouver as fuel needs to travel over the Ironworkers Memorial Bridge and through North Vancouver.  Furthermore, the scores for Bowen Island and Squamish also increase by 1.   24   Figure 11: Gasoline transportation system with the Lionsgate Bridge removed    25   Figure 12: Changes in the gasoline transportation system with the Lionsgate Bridge removed    26  The Pitt River Bridge is the last bridge scenario that changed the scores.  The only community affected is Pitt Meadows, whose score increases by 2. The alternative route is through Langley, over the Golden Ears Bridge, and through Maple Ridge.   Figure 13: Gasoline transportation system with the Pitt River Bridge removed 27   Figure 14: Changes in the gasoline transportation system with the Pitt River Bridge removed  The next scenario shows the available routes if the First Narrows channel was blocked, which would cut off marine access to Burnaby and Port Moody.  Consequently, fuel would have to be transported to Vancouver Island via Richmond, Delta, or Surrey.  Because fuel has to travel a farther route with two extra links on the mainland before reaching a port, all the scores on Vancouver Island and the Gulf Islands increase by 2.  28   Figure 15: Gasoline transportation system with the First Narrows blocked    29   Figure 16: Changes in the gasoline transportation system with the First Narrows channel blocked  From the Lower Mainland, there are various port locations used for fuel transport vessels in Port Moody, Burnaby, Richmond, Delta, and Surrey.  The routes go to North Saanich, Cowichan Valley C, or Nanaimo on Vancouver Island.  On the Sunshine Coast, fuel is delivered to Powell River and Gibsons (through Port Melon).  It is assumed that fuel is transported to the Gulf Islands from Cowichan Valley C.  Most of the port closure scenarios on the Lower Mainland do not change any of the scores except for Richmond.  Removing its ports removes the marine route that runs to Powell River, which significantly increases its score as shown in the two maps below.  It does not affect Gibsons, however, because the number of links for fuel to travel an alternate route through West Vancouver is the same.  30   Figure 17: Gasoline transportation system with the Richmond ports removed 31   Figure 18: Changes in the gasoline transportation system with the Richmond ports removed  Out of all the scenarios, removing the port at Nanaimo has the biggest effect on Vancouver Island.  Without it, fuel either travels through Cowichan Valley C or North Sannich.  This significantly increases the score for all three Comox Valleys, Comox, and Courtenay, as depicted in the figures below.  32   Figure 19: Gasoline transportation system with the Nanaimo ports removed                  33   Figure 20: Changes in the gasoline transportation system with the Nanaimo ports removed  The last port scenario removes the Powell River ports.  This increases Powell River’s score, but the rest of the communities remain unchanged.  34   Figure 21: Gasoline transportation system with the Powell River ports removed  35   Figure 22: Changes in the gasoline transportation system with the Powell River ports removed  The two earthquake scenarios illustrated in the following maps correspond to the most recent B.C. provincial government models, which include an M7.3 earthquake under Vancouver and an M7.0 earthquake under Victoria.  For the M7.3 Vancouver earthquake, all marine routes that correspond with Richmond, Delta, and Surrey ports are removed.  Also the Vancouver-Richmond, New Westminster-Richmond, New Westminster-Surrey, and New Westminster-Delta links are removed because the bridges between those municipalities are expected to be damaged.  Lastly, the Sea-to-Sky highway is assumed to have experienced rock falls, cutting Squamish off from West Vancouver.  None of the Vancouver Island ports are removed in this scenario because their damage is assumed to be minimal.  Moreover, the Burnaby refinery and other storage facilities are also assumed to have minimal damage and continue functioning.  36   Figure 23: Gasoline transportation system after a M7.3 earthquake under Vancouver   37   Figure 24: Changes in the gasoline transportation system after a M7.3 earthquake under Vancouver  For the M7.0 Victoria earthquake, some of the predicted damage is similar to the Vancouver earthquake scenario.  The marine routes that leave from the Richmond, Delta, and Surrey ports are removed as well as the New Westminster-Surrey bridge connection.  On Vancouver Island, the marine links that dock in Cowichan Valley C and North Saanich ports are assumed to be too damaged to operate.  38    Figure 25: Gasoline transportation system after a M7.0 earthquake under Victoria 39    Figure 26: Changes in the gasoline transportation system after a M7.0 earthquake under Victoria  In summary, the least effects on fuel transport were caused by bridge and port closures in the Lower Mainland because there are enough alternate routes and ports that the loss of one causes minimal interruption.  In contrast, the biggest effects on the network were generated from the loss of Nanaimo port, blocking the First Narrows Channel, and the effects of the Victoria earthquake.  Lastly, Powell River is particularly vulnerable to transportation disruptions because it relies on two marine routes relatively far down the supply chain line.   40  7.3 Enhanced Network  This projects aims to analyse both vulnerabilities in the fuel transportation network as well as opportunities for increasing its resilience.  The previous sections identified vulnerable links that are crucial for maintaining the current system.  Building on this, the following section explores how marine routes could be added to decrease the number of links between a community and a fuel distribution source. The following routes were found to reduce the scores by as much as six points:   Burnaby – Powell River/Gibsons  Burnaby – Squamish  Burnaby – Comox  Nanaimo – Comox  USA – Vancouver Island.  These are applied to the two earthquake scenarios to see how community rating changes can be minimized or improved upon.  The changes in scores for each new marine link compared to the current system are shown in Table 5. 41  Table 5: Number of links for in the shortest route to a gasoline distribution point for enhanced network scenarios Community New Marine Link to Current System New Marine Link to Vancouver Earthquake New Marine Link to Victoria Earthquake New Marine Link to First Narrows Blockage Current Burnaby - Powell River / Gibsons Burnaby - Squamish Burnaby - Comox Nanaimo - Comox Burnaby - Squamish Burnaby - Comox Nanaimo - Comox Burnaby – Powell River / Gibsons USA US Bowen Island 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 Burnaby 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Campbell River 8 8 8 5 6 8 5 6 8 7 7 Capital F 3 3 3 3 3 3 6 6 6 5 2 Capital G 3 3 3 3 3 3 6 6 6 5 2 Central Saanich 5 5 5 5 5 6 10 10 10 9 4 Colwood 4 4 4 4 4 4 8 8 8 7 3 Comox 8 8 8 2 3 8 2 3 8 7 7 Comox Valley A 6 6 6 4 5 6 4 5 6 5 5 Comox Valley B (Lazo North) 8 8 8 3 4 8 3 4 8 7 7 Comox Valley C (Puntledge - Black Creek) 7 7 7 4 5 7 4 5 7 6 6 Coquitlam 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 Courtenay 7 7 7 3 4 7 3 4 7 6 6 Cowichan Valley C 2 2 2 2 2 2 6 6 6 5 1 Delta 3 3 3 3 3 4 3 3 3 2 2 Esquimalt 5 5 5 5 5 5 9 9 9 8 4 Gibsons 4 2 4 4 4 4 4 4 2 4 2 Ladysmith 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 Langford 3 3 3 3 3 3 7 7 7 6 2 Langley (City) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 Langley (District) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 Maple Ridge 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 Metchosin 4 4 4 4 4 4 8 8 8 7 3 Nanaimo 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 Nanaimo A 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 Nanaimo E 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 Nanaimo G 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 New Westminster 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 North Cowichan 3 3 3 3 3 3 5 5 5 4 2 North Saanich 4 4 4 4 4 7 11 11 11 10 3 North Vancouver (City) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 42  North Vancouver (District) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Oak Bay 6 6 6 6 6 6 10 10 10 9 5 Parksville 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 Pitt Meadows 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 Port Coquitlam 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Port Moody 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Powell River 4 2 4 3 4 7 3 4 2 7 2 Qualicum Beach 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 Richmond 3 3 3 3 3 5 3 3 3 1 1 Saanich 5 5 5 5 5 5 9 9 9 8 4 Sechelt 5 3 5 5 4 5 5 5 3 5 3 Sidney 5 5 5 5 5 8 12 12 12 11 4 Sooke 5 5 5 5 5 5 9 9 9 8 4 Squamish 4 4 2 4 4 2 4 4 4 4 4 Sunshine Coast A 6 3 6 4 3 6 4 5 3 6 3 Surrey 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 Vancouver 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 Victoria 6 6 6 6 6 6 10 10 10 9 5 View Royal 4 4 4 4 4 4 8 8 8 7 3 West Vancouver 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 White Rock 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 43  The first enhancement scenario addresses the Sunshine Coast.  Currently, fuel travels to Powell River and Gibsons via a fuel vessel that departs from Richmond docks which receives its fuel from the tank farms in Burnaby or Port Moody.  Instead, if the fuel vessel left from Burnaby or Port Moody the overall transportation would be reduced because it would not have to be moved from a distribution point to Richmond.     These changes can be seen in the two following maps.   Figure 27: Gasoline transportation system with a new marine link between Burnaby – Sunshine Coast  44   Figure 28: Changes in the gasoline transportation system with a new marine link between Burnaby – Sunshine Coast  In the current system, the communities at mid-Vancouver Island – at the north end of the study area – have the highest scores.  These places also have the greatest opportunity for significantly reducing number of links.  Two scenarios are explored in the following four maps.  The first includes an additional marine link between Burnaby and Comox, which are shown in the following Figures 29 and 30.  The second scenario includes an additional marine link between Nanaimo and Comox, which are shown in Figures 31 and 32. 45   Figure 29: Gasoline transportation system with a new marine link between Burnaby - Comox  46   Figure 30: Changes in the gasoline transportation system with a new marine link between Burnaby – Comox   47   Figure 31: Gasoline transportation system with a new marine link between Nanaimo – Comox  48   Figure 32: Changes in the gasoline transportation system with a new marine link between Nanaimo – Comox   49  The next scenario considers a new marine route between Burnaby and Squamish.  Because a marine link is not necessary to connect Squamish to Burnaby or Port Moody, this addition is unlikely to be used during normal conditions.  In the event of an earthquake or rock fall, however, the Sea-to-Sky highway could be closed for a considerable amount of time.  If this happened, a marine link to Squamish might be a viable option for ensuring fuel transport.  The next two maps show the current fuel transportation system with the new Burnaby – Squamish link.  A third map shows the predicted fuel system for a Vancouver-based earthquake with the addition of such a marine link.    Figure 33: Changes in the gasoline transportation system with a new marine link between Burnaby – Squamish 50    Figure 34: Changes in the gasoline transportation system with a new marine link between Burnaby – Squamish    51   Figure 35: Gasoline transportation system after a M7.3 Vancouver earthquake with a new marine link between Burnaby - Squamish  The next series of maps further explore two disruption scenarios combined with additional marine links.  The disruption events considered are a Victoria-based earthquake and a blockage in the First Narrows Channel.  As described in Section 7.2, each of these affects the transportation system differently by cutting off particular links.  In the last series of maps, the “Difference” in community ratings is a comparison to the corresponding disrupted system, not the current system.  Four scenarios are investigated for an M7.0 Victoria-based earthquake.  After this event, it is assumed that the Lower Mainland ports in Richmond, Delta, and Surrey would be closed due to liquefaction and underwater landslides in the Fraser River.  It is also assumed that the Vancouver Island ports in North Saanich and Cowichan Valley C would have sustained enough damage to be closed for a significant amount of time.  Fuel would have to travel a longer distance from Nanaimo to reach the communities at the south end of Vancouver Island.  Moreover, the fuel would have to travel along the Island Highway, which has few alternative routes if damaged.  52  For the north end of the island, some rating improvements can be made by adding marine links to Comox from Burnaby or Nanaimo.  These are shown in Figures 36, 37, 38, and 39 in the following pages.     Figure 36: Gasoline transportation system after an M7.0 Victoria earthquake  with a new marine link between Burnaby - Comox 53   Figure 37: Changes in the gasoline transportation system after an M7.0 Victoria earthquake with a new marine link between Burnaby – Comox   54   Figure 38: Gasoline transportation system after an M7.0 Victoria earthquake with a new  marine link between Nanaimo – Comox  55    Figure 39: Changes in the gasoline transportation system after an M7.0 Victoria earthquake with a new marine link between Nanaimo – Comox  Scores along the Sunshine Coast were found to be negatively affected by both a Victoria-based and Vancouver-based earthquake due to damage at Richmond port facilities.  The score can improved, however, by adding a marine link from Burnaby to Powell River and Gibsons, as shown in Figures 41 and 42 which depict the scenario for a Victoria-based earthquake.   Figure 40: Gasoline transportation system after an M7.0 Victoria earthquake with a new marine link  between Burnaby – Powell River/Gibsons 56   Figure 41: Changes in the gasoline transportation system after an M7.0 Victoria earthquake with a new marine link between Burnaby – Powell River/Gibsons  In the event of an emergency like an earthquake in Victoria, it may be possible to have gasoline shipping directly from the United States, as is done with diesel and jet fuel.  The next two maps show additional USA connections, which improve some scores on Vancouver Island by one compared to an earthquake with an unenhanced network. 57   Figure 42: Gasoline transportation system after an M7.0 Victoria earthquake with new marine links to the USA  58   Figure 43: Changes in the gasoline transportation system after an M7.0 Victoria earthquake with new  marine links to the USA  Lastly, a blockage in the First Narrows channel increases the ratings on Vancouver Island by 2 because of the disruption to marine shipping routes from Burnaby and Port Moody.  This means that fuel would need to be shipped from Richmond, Delta, or Surrey.  Adding marine links to the USA, however, decreases ratings by up to 3 in the First Narrows blockage scenario, which is a reduction of 1 from the current network.     59   Figure 44: Gasoline transportation system with First Narrows Blocked and new marine links to the USA 60   Figure 45: Changes to the gasoline transportation system with First Narrows Blocked and new marine links to the USA  In summary, new marine links are found to modify the fuel distribution network to Squamish, Vancouver Island, Powell River, and Gibsons by decreasing the number of links between communities and a fuel source.  During disruption events, these marine links could help move fuel to places that are negatively affected.  For a Vancouver-based earthquake, a marine connection might be necessary to access Squamish from the Lower Mainland.  For Vancouver Island, additional marine links to the USA have the biggest impact on community score for both the Victoria-based earthquake and First Narrows blockage scenarios.    61  8.0 Recommendations   This paper illustrates the links involved in moving fuel to 51 communities in southern B.C.  Its purpose is to show which communities may be most impacted by certain types of hazards.  It is important to note, however, that the colours in the maps do not necessarily correspond to increased difficulty in transporting fuel or additional vulnerabilities if a community is further down the supply chain.  Instead, fuel availability during a natural disaster will depend on how governments and the transport sector respond as well as possible changes in the demand side.  There are various actions that stakeholders can do to help prepare for natural disasters.  At the municipal level, governments should prepare a fuel rationing policy that prioritizes emergency response vehicles if fuel transportation is limited.  The provincial government should continue exploring alternative marine routes as well as maintain docking facilities.  In addition, planning should be undertaken regarding emergency repairs at key facilities, such as the Nanaimo ports.   In the private sector, fuel transportation companies should prepare business continuity planning in the event of a disruption.  In addition, communication between governments and the private sector will be crucial during a disruption event.  It would be beneficial to establish relationships, communication lines, and agreements before a natural disaster occurred.  Generally, the Lower Mainland’s road network has adequate redundancy.  Although regional traffic is funnelled to bridges, there are enough bridges to ensure more than one path to each community.  Both the North Shore and Fraser Valley have two bridges designed for seismic activity.  In contrast, the critical roads on Vancouver and Vancouver Island do not have alternative routes.  The marine routes also lack redundancy because of the few port locations on Vancouver Island.  In the study area, there are no marine routes to mid-Vancouver Island north of Nanaimo.    One solution to create redundancy is to maintain port facilities in more locations.  If these are built to seismic standards, they could be used to create a marine highway system if the roads are damaged.  In 1989 when the Loma Prieta earthquake occurred in the San Francisco region, the Bay Bridge was damaged and unusable for a month.  In the immediate aftermath, an emergency ferry service was created to move 15,000 stranded people across East Bay and San Francisco.  In fact, the expanded ferry service was so successful that part of it was continued after the Bay Bridge reopened (Hansen and Weinstein 1991).  The B.C. Provincial government already recognizes the potential of marine links and maintains Porteau Cove as a possible ferry terminal to use if the Sea-to-Sky highway is closed.  Porteau Cove is between Vancouver and Squamish.  The Sea-to-Sky has had landslides in the past that hinder access to Whistler.  Although it is possible to access Whistler on a paved road via Lillooet and the Fraser Valley, the route would take much longer.  Depending on the conditions, Whistler to Vancouver on the Sea-to-Sky is a 1.5 hour drive whereas Whistler to Vancouver via the Fraser Valley is a 6 hour drive.  Also the Fraser Valley route contains minor roads with less capacity.  Porteau Cove could be used as an alternative to detour cars if ever a landslide or avalanche 62  occurred.  A ferry could land at Darrell Bay Terminal in Squamish or Horseshoe Bay in West Vancouver, depending on where the event hit.  On the north end of Vancouver Island, Port Hardy has deep sea port facilities.  Unfortunately, as resource industries have declined in the area, the need for the port has also diminished.  It should still be maintained, however, to provide an alternative route to Vancouver Island.  In this analysis, Nanaimo’s ports were assumed to have minimal damage after a M7.0 Victoria earthquake.  These effects are hard to predict, however, and an M7.0 earthquake under Victoria could produce more damage mid-Island.  Maintaining facilities at the north end of the island would ensure a working port if such an event occurred.   In the event of an emergency, there are other resources that could possibly be utilized for transportation.  Up and down the B.C. coast, there already exists marine transportation infrastructure for forestry and mining purposes.  Barges and tugs are regularly used to move equipment and resources – such as gravel or logs.  The government should contact organizations that move resources in B.C., even if they do not specialize in fuel or people.  Their equipment could play a key role in disaster response if ever an emergency event occurred.  The information in this paper provides insight on how fuel is transported to and within southern B.C.  More researched is needed, however, to understand how fuel distribution will be affected by transportation disruptions.  In this study it is assumed that if one link is removed, the remaining would absorb the additional demand.  In reality, the other links might not be adequate – a port might be too small for certain ships – or the time delay would be prohibitive.  Furthermore, this analysis only tells part of the story.  It illustrates the supply side of fuel movement.  The demand side is also important to understand since problems chiefly arise when the two are mismatched.      63  9.0 Conclusion  The maps in this study illustrate how fuel is distributed through the region.  Beginning in Port Moody or Burnaby, gasoline is transported to other communities via trucks, pipeline, rail, and marine modes.  Some parts of the network have enough redundancy that removing a critical piece of infrastructure, such as a bridge or port, has minimal effect on the overall network.  For other communities, however, key infrastructure is essential for maintaining their fuel supply line.  For marine-dependent communities, port facilities are the most vulnerable part of their fuel distribution network. Marine links transport vital resources.  In addition, a marine highway could be used as an alternative form of transportation for many areas if an event significantly damaged road or bridges.  This paper is part of a larger 3-year MEOPAR study that began with the hypothesis that remote communities are more prepared to deal with transportation disruptions for necessities because residents shop less frequently and thus stockpile more supplies in their homes.  From personal experience, I can attest to this theory.  My parents live on Bowen Island.  They shop once a week in the Lower Mainland.  Their pantry is full of non-perishable food, the vehicle has fuel, and there is always lots of toilet paper in the bathroom.  In contrast, I now live in Vancouver and I stop in a grocery store about every second day.  I do not keep cans of non-perishable foods in my house but instead buy ingredients as they are needed.  In 1990 there was a large storm in Metro Vancouver and many Bowen Islanders were without power for over ten days.  Like their neighbours, my parents cooked over their wood stove.  They did not need to fuel their vehicles because they did not need leave the house for anything.  Similarly, if there was a significant earthquake in the region, most Bowen Islanders would choose to stay home and “shelter in place” even if the ferry terminal was damaged and both island grocery stores ran out of food.  Islanders pride themselves on their personal resilience.  In my city home, however, I could not survive a week without electricity or empty grocery stores.  I do not have a vehicle, but I rely on public transportation.  Living without constant resources would be much more difficult for me than the typical Bowen Islander.  Although this paper does not directly address individual emergency preparedness as it relates to community remoteness, it does focus on the need for uninterrupted transportation to maintain lifestyle standards.  Increased emergency preparedness and response planning by municipal, provincial, and federal levels of government would help communities weather transportation disruptions.  Moreover, business continuity planning would help private companies minimize the effects of disruptions.     64  Sources  Andrews, M., North Shore Emergency Management (April 27, 2015) Interview with MEOPAR  research team.  B.C. Ministry of Transportation and Infrastructure. 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