International Construction Specialty Conference of the Canadian Society for Civil Engineering (ICSC) (5th : 2015)

Demographic influences on construction craft shortages in the U. S. and Canada Albattah, Mohammed A.; Goodrum, Paul M.; Taylor, Timothy R. B. Jun 30, 2015

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5th International/11th Construction Specialty Conference 5e International/11e Conférence spécialisée sur la construction    Vancouver, British Columbia June 8 to June 10, 2015 / 8 juin au 10 juin 2015   DEMOGRAPHIC INFLUENCES ON CONSTRUCTION CRAFT SHORTAGES IN THE U.S. AND CANADA Mohammed A. Albattah1, Paul M. Goodrum2 and Timothy R.B. Taylor3 1 Department of Civil, Environmental, and Architectural Engineering, University of Colorado at Boulder, United States 2 Department of Civil, Environmental, and Architectural Engineering, University of Colorado at Boulder, United States 3 Department of Civil Engineering, University of Kentucky, United States Abstract: The United States and Canadian construction markets are facing a shortfall of skilled craft workers in the face of increasing labor demands.  There are initial indications that the shortages are already having a significant impact on project performance in the industrial construction sectors.  While there are many demographic aspects of the shortage, the authors focus on the shift in aging of the United States and Canadian construction workforce and the effects this is having on the availability of craft workers, especially on highly skilled craft trades such as pipefitters and electricians. Also, the authors examine immigration policy and its influence on the qualifications of the construction workforce. The authors use multiple US and Canadian data sources to examine the trends on both sides of the border, including the US Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Current Population Survey, Statistic Canada, and the Build Force Canada datasets. The findings show that while both the US and Canadian construction markets are experiencing an aging workforce, the aging of the US workforce is occurring at a much faster rate. 1  INTRODUCTION Construction is one of the largest economic industries in the United States and Canada. In 2010, construction accounted for 3.5% of the U.S.’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (CPWR 2013), and for 6% of Canada’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (Statistic Canada 2014). Construction in 2012 employed approximately 9 million workers in the United States (Dong et al. 2014), whereas Canada employed 1.3 million (Statistics Canada 2014). The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) estimates that the US construction industry will be the fastest growing industry over the next decade, which will create an estimated 1.6 million jobs (Glavin 2013; Gonzales 2013). The growth of construction projects will increase the demand for skilled craft workers, (Wilder 2013; Shelar 2013). Industrial construction on the Gulf Coast has contributed 1,100 projects and $44 billion in revenue, effectively increasing hours worked from 99.7 million to a projection of more than 121 million by 2016. Likewise, Canada has a vast number of oil and gas projects that are on an upward trend (Wilder 2013), although the authors note current dramatic fluctuations in oil prices will likely significantly temper the demand for workers. According to the Construction Sector Council of Canada, the Canadian construction industry will need 319,000 new workers to replace retiring workers and to also fill new job openings—219,000 and 100,000 respectively between 2012 and 2020. The Construction Sector Council estimated that graduates of vocational schools could fill almost half of these jobs, but the other industries like manufacturing and migrant workers will have to fill the remaining jobs (Komarnicki 2012).  183-1 Because of the high demands for construction, companies are losing money from the lack of skilled craft workers. According to Stephen E. Sandherr, the Associated General Contractor’s (AGC) Chief Executive Officer, 74% of construction companies in the U.S. are having difficulties finding workers to fill job openings (Gonzales 2013)—specifically in the Gulf Coast region (Wilder 2013). The Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey in 2012 claimed that 29% of Canadian firms face labor shortages, an increase from 2009 and 2010 (Komarnicki 2012).  The skill shortages in the construction industry are not new, and are a cyclic problem (Castaneda et. al. 2005). A shortage of skilled, qualified craft professionals has been an unfortunate recurring trend in the US and Canadian construction industries for the past three decades.  In the early 1980’s, the Business Roundtable predicted that a shortage of skilled craft workers would hamper the growth of both open shop and union construction sectors by the late 1980s (BRT 1983).  The prediction was confirmed by a 1996 Business Roundtable study that found that 60% of its surveyed members were experiencing a shortage of skilled craft workers; 75% of the respondents indicated that the shortage had worsened in the five years prior to the study (BRT 1997).  The shortage of craft workers apparently has further worsened in recent years.  In 2001, the Construction Users Roundtable (CURT) conducted a survey in which 82% of the respondents reported shortages on their projects. In addition, 78% of the same respondents indicated that the shortage had worsened in the three years prior to the study (CURT 2001).  In 2007, that number had risen to 86% (Sawyer and Rubin 2007).   Higher skilled trades in construction (e.g. electricians and pipefitters) are experiencing greater shortages in comparison to lower skilled trades (e.g. laborers and roofers). Electricians, pipefitters, welders, boilermakers, millwrights, and ironworkers are among the skilled crafts with the greatest demands among construction industry trades in the U.S. (Wilder 2013; Shelar 2013; Gonzales 2013). Yet electricians will be the trade in demand in Canada between 2011 and 2020, as predicted by the Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS). While COPS believes there will be a higher demand for electricians, this timeframe could also experience a surplus of carpenters, plumbers, pipefitters, and gasfitters. Nevertheless, a surplus in some regions may hide skill shortages in other regions (Komarnicki 2012).  1.1 Reasons for the Shortage Many agree that the skills shortage issue is multifaceted (Watson 2007; Healy et. al. 2011). Two reasons for long-term shortages are a lack of training and an inability to attract new talent. There are also reasons for short-term shortages, such as an increasing demand within the workforce and the retirement of the Baby Boomer generation of workers (born between 1946 and 1965). A significant reason for the craft worker shortage is the aging, “greying,” population. In 2010, 39% (3.5 million) of the U.S. construction workforce were Baby Boomers, many of whom had already reached the normal retirement age which varies from age 65 to age 67 (SSB 2014; GOC 2014b; CPWR 2013). Just a decade earlier, 49% of the construction workforce were Baby Boomers (4.6 million) (CPWR 2007). The average age of the U.S. construction workers was 40.2 years in 2010. In comparison, union workers are on average five years older than non-union workers. In 2010, union workers average age was 42.4 years and non-union workers average age was 37.7 years (CPWR 2013). Shigeru Fujita (2014), believes the Baby Boomers’ retirement is a main contributor to the workforce shortage, which started around 2010 and became much more problematic at the beginning of 2012.  However, 30 % of the total decline in the participation rate, which was measured from the beginning of the great recession up to the end of 2011, is due to discounted workers, who stop looking for employment. R.E. Parker, president of Repcon, Inc., a mechanical contractor based in Corpus Christi, Texas said “Due to the aging of the ‘baby-boomer’ workforce and the tremendous amount of construction planned for the next several years, our current labor shortages are going to become a crisis” (Wilder 2013). However, the major contributor to the construction workforce shortages as a result of baby boomer retirements is a continuance of two actions within the workforce during the last couple of decades. First, more and more existing workers have been leaving the construction industry for other industries, especially during the great recession. Second, there has been a lack of new workers entering the construction industry (Druker and White, 1996). While the current rapid decline in oil prices has diminished the demand for oil service projects, especially in the upstream,, it is also having a positive effect of increasing craft demand for construction projects in other 183-2 sectors designed to take advantage of cheap energy prices, such as projects related to manufacturing. Table 1 is a list of reasons of construction workforce shortages from previous studies. Table 1: Reason for Construction Workforce Shortages from Previous Studies Reason of Construction Workforce Shortages Reference (Previous Studies) Aging of the workforce Watson 2007; Komarnicki 2012; Gonzales 2013; Wilder 2013; Fujita 2014 Increase the demand of craft workers Watson 2007; Healy et. al. 2011; Shah and Burke 2005; Haskel and Martin 1993; Komarnicki 2012; Glavin 2013; Wilder 2013; Shelar 2013 Changing in skill requirements (i.e. new technology)  Watson 2007; Haskel and Martin 1993 Poor education/Poor training Watson 2007; Healy et. al. 2011; Haskel and Martin 1993; Castaneda et. al. 2005 Not meeting the employer expectation Watson 2007 Poor market information Shah and Burke 2005 Decrease the number of the  new entrants  Druker and White 1996 Poor wages Watson 2007; Shah and Burke 2005; Haskel and Martin 1993; Castaneda et. al. 2005; Healy et. al. 2011; CII 2000 Poor industry image Shah and Burke 2005; Castaneda et. al. 2005 Poor working condition Shah and Burke 2005; Castaneda et. al. 2005; CII 2000 Geographic location of business/job Healy et. al. 2011; Shah and Burke 2005 Lack of job security/Poor treatment/Poor safety CII 2000 Lack of a worker-oriented career path Castaneda et. al. 2005 1.2 Research Objectives The main objective of this study is to understand the influence of demographics on the construction industry’s workforce availability, focusing on the shift in aging of the United States and Canada.  In addition, the study examines the influence of immigration policy on the educational attainment of construction craft in both the U.S. and Canada.   2 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY The authors use multiple US and Canadian data sources to examine the trends on both sides of the border, including the US Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Current Population Survey (CPS), Statistic Canada, and the Build Force Canada datasets. This study includes only craft workers in the construction industry, filtering out manager, superintendents, foreman workers, inspectors, and engineers.  3 RESULTS OF ANALYSIS 3.1 Average Age 3.2 Construction Industries vs. All Other Industries [United States] 183-3 • High Skilled trades in the U.S. (i.e. electricians, and pipefitters) are older than the construction industry average age. • The construction industry in the U.S. is losing more craft workers than it is attracting. • The Canadian construction foreign workers percentage has not increased over time, but their level of education has increased sharply. • The percentage of Hispanic craft workers in the U.S. has increased sharply over the time while their level of education has not. The analysis showed that the aging of the construction workforce plays a significant role in the current craft shortage, especially in the U.S. Outside of revamping a U.S. immigration policy that considers the educational attainment of foreign born workers, the U.S. needs to critically examine how to improve the educational attainment of Hispanic construction workers both for the personal benefit of the individual worker and the industry’s needs.  Acknowledgements The support of the Construction Industry Institute (RT-318) for portions of the work presented here is gratefully acknowledged. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Construction Industry Institute. References Business Round Table - BRT (1983), “More Construction for the Money”, Construction Industry Cost Effectiveness Project, Summary Report, The Business Round Table. Business Round Table - BRT (1997), “Confronting the Skilled Construction Workforce Shortage”, Construction Cost Effectiveness Task Force, Summary Report, the Business Round Table. Construction Industry Institute (CII), (2000). “Attracting and Maintaining a Skilled Construction Work Force.” Construction Industry Institute (CII). Research Study number RS135-1. Retrieved April 09, 2014, from https://www.construction-institute.org/source/orders/index.cfm?section=orders&task=1&continue=1&SEARCH_TYPE=find&FindIn=5&FindSpec=135-1 Castaneda, J., Tucker, R., and Haas, C. (2005). “Workers’ Skills and Receptiveness to Operate Under the Tier II Construction Management Strategy.” Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 2005, 131(7), 799-807 Center to Protect Worker’s Rights – CPWR (2013). The Construction Chart Book, fifth edition, April 2013. Center to Protect Worker’s Rights – CPWR (2007). “Worker Age in Construction and Other Industries.” The Construction Chart Book, fourth edition, December 2007. Construction Users Roundtable - CURT (2001), “The Skilled Construction Workforce Shortage and the CURT 2001 Workforce Development Survey Results.” The Construction Users Roundtable. Druker, J. and White, G. (1996), Managing People in Construction, IPD, London. Dong, X., Largay, J., and Wang, X. (2014). “New Trends in Fatalities among Construction Workers.” Center to Protect Worker’s Rights (CPWR) – Data Center, June 2014, Vol. 3, No. 2. Fujita, S. (2014). “On the Causes of Declines in the Labor Force Participation Rate.” Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia report, February 6, 2014. Retrieved April 09, 2014, from http://philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/publications/research-rap/2013/on-the-causes-of-declines-in-the-labor-force-participation-rate.pdf Glavin, M. (2013). “Construction Projection to Be The Fastest Growing Occupation Over The Next 10 Years.” Workforce Under Construction. Retrieved April 09, 2014, from http://workforceunderconstruction.com/featured/construction-employment-projected-to-be-the-fastest-growing-occupation-over-the-next-10-years/ Gonzales, D. (2013). “Workforce trends in the construction industry.” Zurich American Insurance Corporation. Goodrum, P.M. (2004). “Hispanic and Non-Hispanic Wage Differentials: Implications for United States Construction Industry.” Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, Vol. 130, No. 4. 183-9 Government of Canada – GOC (2014a). “Fact Sheet — Temporary Foreign Worker Program.” Government of Canada. Retrieved from http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/resources/publications/employers/temp-foreign-worker-program.asp Government of Canada – GOC (2014b). “Canadian Retirement Income Calculator.” Government of Canada. Retrieved from http://www.servicecanada.gc.ca/eng/services/pensions/cric.shtml?utm_source=campaign+URL&utm_medium=twitter&utm_content=000024,+20112013,+Eng&utm_campaign=Canadian+Retirement+Income+calculator  Healy, J., Mavromaras, K., and Sloane, P. (2011). “Adjusting to Skill Shortages: Complexity and Consequences.” The Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). Discussion Paper No. 6097. Haskel, J. (2001). “Technology, Wages and Skill Shortages: Evidence from UK Microdata.” Oxford Economic Papers, vol.53, no.4, pp.642-658. Haskel, J., and Martin, C. (1993). “The Causes of Skill Shortages in Britain.” Oxford Economic Papers, vol.45, pp.573-588. Komarnicki, E. (2012). “Labor and Skills Shortages in Canada: Addressing Current and Future Challenges.”  House of Commons Committees in Canada – HUMA, (41-1). Statistics Canada (2014). “Construction.” Retrieved from http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/11-402-x/2011000/chap/construction/construction-eng.htm. Sawyer, T. and Rubin, D. (2007).  “Leaders Probe New Solutions for Industry’s Labor Shortfall.” Engineering News Record.  June 13, 2007. p. 15. Shah, C. and Burke, G. (2005). “Skills Shortages: Concepts, Measurement and Policy Responses.” Australian Bulletin of Labour, Vol. 31, No. 1, 2005: 44-71.  Shelar, S. (2013). “141 Ideas for Solving the Construction Industry’s Labor Shortage.” Construction Citizen. Retrieved April 09, 2014, from http://constructioncitizen.com/blog/141-ideas-solving-construction-industrys-labor-shortage/1312271?goback=%2Egde_4972139_member_5823510803969486850#%21 Social Security Benefits - SSB (2014). “Early of Late Retirement?” Social Security Benefits. Retrieved from http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/quickcalc/early_late.html U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics – BLS (2014). “Construction and Extraction Occupations.” U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Retrieved from http://www.bls.gov/ooh/construction-and-extraction/home.htm  Watson, M. (2007). “Concerns for skills Shortages in the 21st century: A review into the construction industry, Australia.” The Australian Journal of Construction Economics and Building, (7), No. 1, 45 – 54. Wilder, R. (2013). “Big Increase in Gulf Coast Projects Equals Big Demand for Skilled Workers.” The Conrnerstone. Retrieved April 09, 2014, from http://www.nccercornerstone.org/features/item/115-big-increase-in-gulf-coast-projects-equals-big-demand-for-skilled-workers Wilson, J. (2013). “Immigration Facts: Temporary Foreign Workers.” BROOKINGS. June 18, 2013. Retrieved from http://www.brookings.edu/research/reports/2013/06/18-temporary-workers-wilson.  183-10  5th International/11th Construction Specialty Conference 5e International/11e Conférence spécialisée sur la construction    Vancouver, British Columbia June 8 to June 10, 2015 / 8 juin au 10 juin 2015   DEMOGRAPHIC INFLUENCES ON CONSTRUCTION CRAFT SHORTAGES IN THE U.S. AND CANADA Mohammed A. Albattah1, Paul M. Goodrum2 and Timothy R.B. Taylor3 1 Department of Civil, Environmental, and Architectural Engineering, University of Colorado at Boulder, United States 2 Department of Civil, Environmental, and Architectural Engineering, University of Colorado at Boulder, United States 3 Department of Civil Engineering, University of Kentucky, United States Abstract: The United States and Canadian construction markets are facing a shortfall of skilled craft workers in the face of increasing labor demands.  There are initial indications that the shortages are already having a significant impact on project performance in the industrial construction sectors.  While there are many demographic aspects of the shortage, the authors focus on the shift in aging of the United States and Canadian construction workforce and the effects this is having on the availability of craft workers, especially on highly skilled craft trades such as pipefitters and electricians. Also, the authors examine immigration policy and its influence on the qualifications of the construction workforce. The authors use multiple US and Canadian data sources to examine the trends on both sides of the border, including the US Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Current Population Survey, Statistic Canada, and the Build Force Canada datasets. The findings show that while both the US and Canadian construction markets are experiencing an aging workforce, the aging of the US workforce is occurring at a much faster rate. 1  INTRODUCTION Construction is one of the largest economic industries in the United States and Canada. In 2010, construction accounted for 3.5% of the U.S.’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (CPWR 2013), and for 6% of Canada’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (Statistic Canada 2014). Construction in 2012 employed approximately 9 million workers in the United States (Dong et al. 2014), whereas Canada employed 1.3 million (Statistics Canada 2014). The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) estimates that the US construction industry will be the fastest growing industry over the next decade, which will create an estimated 1.6 million jobs (Glavin 2013; Gonzales 2013). The growth of construction projects will increase the demand for skilled craft workers, (Wilder 2013; Shelar 2013). Industrial construction on the Gulf Coast has contributed 1,100 projects and $44 billion in revenue, effectively increasing hours worked from 99.7 million to a projection of more than 121 million by 2016. Likewise, Canada has a vast number of oil and gas projects that are on an upward trend (Wilder 2013), although the authors note current dramatic fluctuations in oil prices will likely significantly temper the demand for workers. According to the Construction Sector Council of Canada, the Canadian construction industry will need 319,000 new workers to replace retiring workers and to also fill new job openings—219,000 and 100,000 respectively between 2012 and 2020. The Construction Sector Council estimated that graduates of vocational schools could fill almost half of these jobs, but the other industries like manufacturing and migrant workers will have to fill the remaining jobs (Komarnicki 2012).  183-1 Because of the high demands for construction, companies are losing money from the lack of skilled craft workers. According to Stephen E. Sandherr, the Associated General Contractor’s (AGC) Chief Executive Officer, 74% of construction companies in the U.S. are having difficulties finding workers to fill job openings (Gonzales 2013)—specifically in the Gulf Coast region (Wilder 2013). The Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey in 2012 claimed that 29% of Canadian firms face labor shortages, an increase from 2009 and 2010 (Komarnicki 2012).  The skill shortages in the construction industry are not new, and are a cyclic problem (Castaneda et. al. 2005). A shortage of skilled, qualified craft professionals has been an unfortunate recurring trend in the US and Canadian construction industries for the past three decades.  In the early 1980’s, the Business Roundtable predicted that a shortage of skilled craft workers would hamper the growth of both open shop and union construction sectors by the late 1980s (BRT 1983).  The prediction was confirmed by a 1996 Business Roundtable study that found that 60% of its surveyed members were experiencing a shortage of skilled craft workers; 75% of the respondents indicated that the shortage had worsened in the five years prior to the study (BRT 1997).  The shortage of craft workers apparently has further worsened in recent years.  In 2001, the Construction Users Roundtable (CURT) conducted a survey in which 82% of the respondents reported shortages on their projects. In addition, 78% of the same respondents indicated that the shortage had worsened in the three years prior to the study (CURT 2001).  In 2007, that number had risen to 86% (Sawyer and Rubin 2007).   Higher skilled trades in construction (e.g. electricians and pipefitters) are experiencing greater shortages in comparison to lower skilled trades (e.g. laborers and roofers). Electricians, pipefitters, welders, boilermakers, millwrights, and ironworkers are among the skilled crafts with the greatest demands among construction industry trades in the U.S. (Wilder 2013; Shelar 2013; Gonzales 2013). Yet electricians will be the trade in demand in Canada between 2011 and 2020, as predicted by the Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS). While COPS believes there will be a higher demand for electricians, this timeframe could also experience a surplus of carpenters, plumbers, pipefitters, and gasfitters. Nevertheless, a surplus in some regions may hide skill shortages in other regions (Komarnicki 2012).  1.1 Reasons for the Shortage Many agree that the skills shortage issue is multifaceted (Watson 2007; Healy et. al. 2011). Two reasons for long-term shortages are a lack of training and an inability to attract new talent. There are also reasons for short-term shortages, such as an increasing demand within the workforce and the retirement of the Baby Boomer generation of workers (born between 1946 and 1965). A significant reason for the craft worker shortage is the aging, “greying,” population. In 2010, 39% (3.5 million) of the U.S. construction workforce were Baby Boomers, many of whom had already reached the normal retirement age which varies from age 65 to age 67 (SSB 2014; GOC 2014b; CPWR 2013). Just a decade earlier, 49% of the construction workforce were Baby Boomers (4.6 million) (CPWR 2007). The average age of the U.S. construction workers was 40.2 years in 2010. In comparison, union workers are on average five years older than non-union workers. In 2010, union workers average age was 42.4 years and non-union workers average age was 37.7 years (CPWR 2013). Shigeru Fujita (2014), believes the Baby Boomers’ retirement is a main contributor to the workforce shortage, which started around 2010 and became much more problematic at the beginning of 2012.  However, 30 % of the total decline in the participation rate, which was measured from the beginning of the great recession up to the end of 2011, is due to discounted workers, who stop looking for employment. R.E. Parker, president of Repcon, Inc., a mechanical contractor based in Corpus Christi, Texas said “Due to the aging of the ‘baby-boomer’ workforce and the tremendous amount of construction planned for the next several years, our current labor shortages are going to become a crisis” (Wilder 2013). However, the major contributor to the construction workforce shortages as a result of baby boomer retirements is a continuance of two actions within the workforce during the last couple of decades. First, more and more existing workers have been leaving the construction industry for other industries, especially during the great recession. Second, there has been a lack of new workers entering the construction industry (Druker and White, 1996). While the current rapid decline in oil prices has diminished the demand for oil service projects, especially in the upstream,, it is also having a positive effect of increasing craft demand for construction projects in other 183-2 sectors designed to take advantage of cheap energy prices, such as projects related to manufacturing. Table 1 is a list of reasons of construction workforce shortages from previous studies. Table 1: Reason for Construction Workforce Shortages from Previous Studies Reason of Construction Workforce Shortages Reference (Previous Studies) Aging of the workforce Watson 2007; Komarnicki 2012; Gonzales 2013; Wilder 2013; Fujita 2014 Increase the demand of craft workers Watson 2007; Healy et. al. 2011; Shah and Burke 2005; Haskel and Martin 1993; Komarnicki 2012; Glavin 2013; Wilder 2013; Shelar 2013 Changing in skill requirements (i.e. new technology)  Watson 2007; Haskel and Martin 1993 Poor education/Poor training Watson 2007; Healy et. al. 2011; Haskel and Martin 1993; Castaneda et. al. 2005 Not meeting the employer expectation Watson 2007 Poor market information Shah and Burke 2005 Decrease the number of the  new entrants  Druker and White 1996 Poor wages Watson 2007; Shah and Burke 2005; Haskel and Martin 1993; Castaneda et. al. 2005; Healy et. al. 2011; CII 2000 Poor industry image Shah and Burke 2005; Castaneda et. al. 2005 Poor working condition Shah and Burke 2005; Castaneda et. al. 2005; CII 2000 Geographic location of business/job Healy et. al. 2011; Shah and Burke 2005 Lack of job security/Poor treatment/Poor safety CII 2000 Lack of a worker-oriented career path Castaneda et. al. 2005 1.2 Research Objectives The main objective of this study is to understand the influence of demographics on the construction industry’s workforce availability, focusing on the shift in aging of the United States and Canada.  In addition, the study examines the influence of immigration policy on the educational attainment of construction craft in both the U.S. and Canada.   2 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY The authors use multiple US and Canadian data sources to examine the trends on both sides of the border, including the US Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Current Population Survey (CPS), Statistic Canada, and the Build Force Canada datasets. This study includes only craft workers in the construction industry, filtering out manager, superintendents, foreman workers, inspectors, and engineers.  3 RESULTS OF ANALYSIS 3.1 Average Age 3.2 Construction Industries vs. All Other Industries [United States] 183-3 • High Skilled trades in the U.S. (i.e. electricians, and pipefitters) are older than the construction industry average age. • The construction industry in the U.S. is losing more craft workers than it is attracting. • The Canadian construction foreign workers percentage has not increased over time, but their level of education has increased sharply. • The percentage of Hispanic craft workers in the U.S. has increased sharply over the time while their level of education has not. The analysis showed that the aging of the construction workforce plays a significant role in the current craft shortage, especially in the U.S. Outside of revamping a U.S. immigration policy that considers the educational attainment of foreign born workers, the U.S. needs to critically examine how to improve the educational attainment of Hispanic construction workers both for the personal benefit of the individual worker and the industry’s needs.  Acknowledgements The support of the Construction Industry Institute (RT-318) for portions of the work presented here is gratefully acknowledged. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Construction Industry Institute. References Business Round Table - BRT (1983), “More Construction for the Money”, Construction Industry Cost Effectiveness Project, Summary Report, The Business Round Table. Business Round Table - BRT (1997), “Confronting the Skilled Construction Workforce Shortage”, Construction Cost Effectiveness Task Force, Summary Report, the Business Round Table. Construction Industry Institute (CII), (2000). “Attracting and Maintaining a Skilled Construction Work Force.” Construction Industry Institute (CII). Research Study number RS135-1. Retrieved April 09, 2014, from https://www.construction-institute.org/source/orders/index.cfm?section=orders&task=1&continue=1&SEARCH_TYPE=find&FindIn=5&FindSpec=135-1 Castaneda, J., Tucker, R., and Haas, C. (2005). “Workers’ Skills and Receptiveness to Operate Under the Tier II Construction Management Strategy.” Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 2005, 131(7), 799-807 Center to Protect Worker’s Rights – CPWR (2013). The Construction Chart Book, fifth edition, April 2013. Center to Protect Worker’s Rights – CPWR (2007). “Worker Age in Construction and Other Industries.” The Construction Chart Book, fourth edition, December 2007. Construction Users Roundtable - CURT (2001), “The Skilled Construction Workforce Shortage and the CURT 2001 Workforce Development Survey Results.” The Construction Users Roundtable. Druker, J. and White, G. (1996), Managing People in Construction, IPD, London. Dong, X., Largay, J., and Wang, X. (2014). “New Trends in Fatalities among Construction Workers.” Center to Protect Worker’s Rights (CPWR) – Data Center, June 2014, Vol. 3, No. 2. Fujita, S. (2014). “On the Causes of Declines in the Labor Force Participation Rate.” Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia report, February 6, 2014. Retrieved April 09, 2014, from http://philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/publications/research-rap/2013/on-the-causes-of-declines-in-the-labor-force-participation-rate.pdf Glavin, M. (2013). “Construction Projection to Be The Fastest Growing Occupation Over The Next 10 Years.” Workforce Under Construction. Retrieved April 09, 2014, from http://workforceunderconstruction.com/featured/construction-employment-projected-to-be-the-fastest-growing-occupation-over-the-next-10-years/ Gonzales, D. (2013). “Workforce trends in the construction industry.” Zurich American Insurance Corporation. Goodrum, P.M. (2004). “Hispanic and Non-Hispanic Wage Differentials: Implications for United States Construction Industry.” Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, Vol. 130, No. 4. 183-9 Government of Canada – GOC (2014a). “Fact Sheet — Temporary Foreign Worker Program.” Government of Canada. Retrieved from http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/resources/publications/employers/temp-foreign-worker-program.asp Government of Canada – GOC (2014b). “Canadian Retirement Income Calculator.” Government of Canada. Retrieved from http://www.servicecanada.gc.ca/eng/services/pensions/cric.shtml?utm_source=campaign+URL&utm_medium=twitter&utm_content=000024,+20112013,+Eng&utm_campaign=Canadian+Retirement+Income+calculator  Healy, J., Mavromaras, K., and Sloane, P. (2011). “Adjusting to Skill Shortages: Complexity and Consequences.” The Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). Discussion Paper No. 6097. Haskel, J. (2001). “Technology, Wages and Skill Shortages: Evidence from UK Microdata.” Oxford Economic Papers, vol.53, no.4, pp.642-658. Haskel, J., and Martin, C. (1993). “The Causes of Skill Shortages in Britain.” Oxford Economic Papers, vol.45, pp.573-588. Komarnicki, E. (2012). “Labor and Skills Shortages in Canada: Addressing Current and Future Challenges.”  House of Commons Committees in Canada – HUMA, (41-1). Statistics Canada (2014). “Construction.” Retrieved from http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/11-402-x/2011000/chap/construction/construction-eng.htm. Sawyer, T. and Rubin, D. (2007).  “Leaders Probe New Solutions for Industry’s Labor Shortfall.” Engineering News Record.  June 13, 2007. p. 15. Shah, C. and Burke, G. (2005). “Skills Shortages: Concepts, Measurement and Policy Responses.” Australian Bulletin of Labour, Vol. 31, No. 1, 2005: 44-71.  Shelar, S. (2013). “141 Ideas for Solving the Construction Industry’s Labor Shortage.” Construction Citizen. Retrieved April 09, 2014, from http://constructioncitizen.com/blog/141-ideas-solving-construction-industrys-labor-shortage/1312271?goback=%2Egde_4972139_member_5823510803969486850#%21 Social Security Benefits - SSB (2014). “Early of Late Retirement?” Social Security Benefits. Retrieved from http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/quickcalc/early_late.html U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics – BLS (2014). “Construction and Extraction Occupations.” U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Retrieved from http://www.bls.gov/ooh/construction-and-extraction/home.htm  Watson, M. (2007). “Concerns for skills Shortages in the 21st century: A review into the construction industry, Australia.” The Australian Journal of Construction Economics and Building, (7), No. 1, 45 – 54. Wilder, R. (2013). “Big Increase in Gulf Coast Projects Equals Big Demand for Skilled Workers.” The Conrnerstone. Retrieved April 09, 2014, from http://www.nccercornerstone.org/features/item/115-big-increase-in-gulf-coast-projects-equals-big-demand-for-skilled-workers Wilson, J. (2013). “Immigration Facts: Temporary Foreign Workers.” BROOKINGS. June 18, 2013. Retrieved from http://www.brookings.edu/research/reports/2013/06/18-temporary-workers-wilson.  183-10  DEMOGRAPHIC INFLUENCES ON CONSTRUCTION CRAFT SHORTAGES IN THE U.S. AND CANADA Mohammed	  Alba,ah,	  Univ.	  of	  Colorado	  Boulder	  Paul	  Goodrum,	  Univ.	  of	  Colorado	  Boulder	  Tim	  Taylor,	  Univ.	  of	  Kentucky	  •  Kevin Blair •  Scean Cherry •  Kimberly Corley •  Brandon Davis •  Marco Giron •  Steve Greene •  Daniel Groves •  Shaddy Hanna •  Dean Hamrick •  Don Jones •  Mitch Lee •  Chris Maxson •  James MacDonald •  Jennifer Sulak Brown •  Jon Tate  •  Tim Taylor •  Paul Goodrum •  Mohammed Albattah •  Hossein Karimi   RT 318 Members •  Secondary (Raw) Data 1.  National Opinion Research Center, University of Chicago, General Social Survey on Craft Job Satisfaction •  2,251 Craft Workers 2.  U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics  •  Current Population Survey (CPS), 705,321 Craft Workers 3.  Statistics Canada (Gov’t) •  79,022 Craft Workers 4.  National Craft Assessment and Certification Program •  381,729 Craft Workers 5.  Associated Builders & Contractors Craft Championships Registrations •  156 Craft Workers 6.  CII Benchmarking and Metrics Data •  68 projects •  Other Secondary (Aggregated) 7.  U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics  •  Current Employment Statistics (CES) 8.  Build Force Canada Data •  858,260 Craft Workers  9.  Alpha Resources •  ~20,000 Craft Workers (estimated) 10. Industrial Projects Report •  864 job advertisements (12 months) 11. U.S. Department of Education,  •  High School Transcript Study •  Digest of Education Statistics 12. Construction Users Roundtable •  Construction Labor Market Analyzer •  Primary Data 13. CII RT-318 Survey •  29 projects Data Sources 0 5 10 15 20 25 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Unemployment Rate (%) United States Electricians (U.S.) Pipelayers, plumbers, pipefitters, and steamfitters (U.S.) SOURCE: Data Ferret – Current Population Survey, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics The Great Recession Actual Annual Unemployment Rate  [Craft workers only]  Natural Unemployment Rate 0	  2	  4	  6	  8	  10	  12	  14	  16	  18	  20	  Jan-­‐13	  Feb-­‐13	  Mar-­‐13	  Apr-­‐13	  May-­‐13	  Jun-­‐13	  Jul-­‐13	  Aug-­‐13	  Sep-­‐13	  Oct-­‐13	  Nov-­‐13	  Dec-­‐13	  Jan-­‐14	  Feb-­‐14	  Mar-­‐14	  Apr-­‐14	  May-­‐14	  Jun-­‐14	  Jul-­‐14	  Aug-­‐14	  Sep-­‐14	  Oct-­‐14	  Nov-­‐14	  Dec-­‐14	  Jan-­‐15	  Feb-­‐15	  Mar-­‐15	  Apr-­‐15	  ConstrucRon	  Unemployment	  Rate	  (%)	  Actual Monthly Unemployment Rate  [Craft workers only] Jan 2013 - Apr 2015 SOURCE: Data Ferret – Current Population Survey, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Natural Unemployment Rate Agenda •  Primary Structural Change in Craft Demographics §  Age §  Race and Immigration §  Educational Attainment Aging of the U.S. construction workforce is accelerating. 36	  37	  38	  39	  40	  41	  42	  43	  1994	   1995	   1996	   1997	   1998	   1999	   2000	   2001	   2002	   2003	   2004	   2005	   2006	   2007	   2008	   2009	   2010	   2011	   2012	   2013	   2014	  Average	  Age	  ConstrucRon	  Industry	   All	  Other	  Industries	  Average Age Construction vs. All Other Industries Average Aging Rate = 0.092 years/year SOURCE: Data Ferret – Current Population Survey, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.  Average Age at Trades level  SOURCE: Data Ferret – Current Population Survey, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.  36.0 37.0 38.0 39.0 40.0 41.0 42.0 43.0 44.0 45.0 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Average Age Carpenters Electricians Pipelayers, plumbers, pipefitters, and steamfitters Construction Equipment Operators (Except Crane) All Skilled Trades Construction Industry’s Average Age U.S. vs. Canada [Craft trades only] U.S. SOURCE: Data Ferret – Current Population Survey, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. CANADA SOURCE:  Build Force Canada 35	  36	  37	  38	  39	  40	  41	  42	  2006	   2007	   2008	   2009	   2010	   2011	   2012	   2013	   2014	  Average	  Age	  U.S.	  Canada	  Age Distribution: Electricians 2007 vs. 2013 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 Probability Distribution Age 2013 2007 SOURCE: Data Ferret – Current Population Survey, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.  2007: Average Age = 38.7 2013: Average Age = 41.4 2007 2013 Age Distribution: Pipefitters 2007 vs. 2013 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75 79 Probability Distribution Age 2013 2007 SOURCE: Data Ferret – Current Population Survey, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.  2007: Average Age = 39.7 2013: Average Age = 41.5 2007 2013 Immigration and construction in the U.S. and Canada…short-term solutions? Canadian Citizenship [Construction vs. All Other Industries] SOURCE: Statistics Canada. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 Canadian Citizenship (%) Citizen by birth (Construction) Citizen by birth (All Other Industries) Citizen by naturalization (Construction) Citizen by naturalization (All Other Industries) Not a Canadian citizen (Construction) Not a Canadian citizen (All Other Industries) High School Graduates or Higher in Construction [By Canadian Citizenship] 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 Percentage (%) Canada, by birth Canada, by naturalization Not a Canadian citizen SOURCE: Statistics Canada. Skilled Workers Immigration System in Canada 0%	  10%	  20%	  30%	  40%	  50%	  60%	  70%	  80%	  90%	  100%	  Old	  System	   Express	  Entry	  System	  Points	  Weigh9ng	  (%)	  Work	  experience	  Skill	  transfrability	  Adaptability	  Age	  Educa9on	  Language	  Job	  offer	  SOURCE: Government of Canada. Construction vs. All Other Industries Growth in the U.S. Hispanic workforce SOURCE: Data Ferret – Current Population Survey, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.  8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 20.0 22.0 24.0 26.0 28.0 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Hispanic Rate (%) All Other Industries (Hispanic) Construction Industry (Hispanic) 17.0	  18.0	  19.0	  20.0	  21.0	  22.0	  23.0	  24.0	  25.0	  26.0	  27.0	  0.0	  10.0	  20.0	  30.0	  40.0	  50.0	  60.0	  2002	   2003	   2004	   2005	   2006	   2007	   2008	   2009	   2010	   2011	   2012	   2013	   2014	  Hispanic	  PopulaRon	  (%)	  ResidenRal	  ConstrucRon	  Spending	  (%)	  ConstrucRon	  Spending	  (ResidenRal	  Projects)	   Hispanic	  in	  ConstrucRon	  Hispanic Population vs. Residential Construction Spending The Great Recession SOURCE: Construction Spending, U.S. Census Bureau.  SOURCE: Data Ferret – Current Population Survey, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.  Construction Hispanic at Trades level SOURCE: Data Ferret – Current Population Survey, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.  0.0	  10.0	  20.0	  30.0	  40.0	  50.0	  60.0	  Hispanic	  Rate	  (%)	  Roofers	  Drywall	  installers,	  concrete	  and	  terrazzo	  finishers,	  and	  plasterers	  Painters,	  construcRon	  and	  maintenance	  Carpet,	  floor,	  and	  Rle	  installers	  and	  finishers	  ConstrucRon	  laborers	  and	  helpers	  Brickmasons,	  blockmasons,	  and	  stonemasons	  All	  Trades	  Carpenters	  	  Pipelayers,	  plumbers,	  pipefi,ers,	  and	  steamfi,ers	  	  Electricians	  	  0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 High School Graduates (%) Hispanic Non-Hispanic High School Graduates or Higher (Hispanic vs. Non-Hispanic) 35.3% 37% SOURCE: Data Ferret – Current Population Survey, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.  Recent challenges with U.S. career and technical education (AKA vocational programs). Average Number of Credits Earned in Each Subject Area by Public High School Graduates. [1990 - 2009]  0	  0.5	  1	  1.5	  2	  2.5	  3	  3.5	  4	  4.5	  5	  1990	   2000	   2005	   2009	  Average	  Number	  of	  Credits	  Earned	  CTE	  English	  Fine	  Arts	  Foreign	  Language	  MathemaRcs	  Science	  Social	  Studies	  SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, Institute of Education Sciences, National Center for Education Statistics, National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP), 1990, 2000, 2005 and 2009 High School Transcript Study (HSTS). Areas of Average Number of Credits Earned in Career and Technical Education by School Location [2000 - 2009]  0	  1	  2	  3	  4	  5	  6	  7	  8	  2000	   2005	   2009	  Average	  Number	  of	  Credits	  Earned	  City	  Suburb	  Town	  Rural	  SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, Institute of Education Sciences, National Center for Education Statistics, National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP), 1990, 2000, 2005 and 2009 High School Transcript Study (HSTS). SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Censuses US Rural and Urban Population  [1900 – 2010] 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Population (%) Rural Urban Conclusion •  There is a “greying” of the U.S. workforce. –  Implications on methods and safety –  Canada appears more stable •  Significant differences in educational gap between Hispanic and non-Hispanic U.S. craft –  Minimal difference between Canadian craft by immigration status •  Shifts in Career and Technical Educational programs and the geographic shifts in the U.S. may become hindrance to the U.S. craft  

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