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Abstract

Background The identification of circulating biomarkers associated with the risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D) is useful for improving the current prevention strategies in the most at-risk patients. Here, we aimed to investigate the association of plasma apolipoprotein concentrations in prediabetes subjects with the incidence of new-onset T2D during follow-up. Methods In the IT-DIAB prospective study, 307 participants with impaired fasting glucose levels (fasting plasma glucose [FPG]: 110–125 mg/dL) were followed yearly for 5 years. The onset of T2D was defined as a first FPG value ≥ 126 mg/dL during follow-up. Apolipoprotein (apo)A-I, A-II, A-IV, B100, C-I, C-II, C-III, C-IV, D, E, F, H, J, L1, M, and (a) plasma concentrations were determined by mass spectrometry. Correlations between apolipoproteins and metabolic parameters at baseline were assessed by Spearman’s coefficients. Kaplan–Meier curves were drawn using a ternary approach based on terciles and incident T2D. The association between plasma apolipoproteins concentrations and the incidence of T2D was determined using Cox proportional-hazards models. Results During a median follow-up of 5-year, 115 participants (37.5%) developed T2D. After adjustment for age, sex, body mass index, FPG, HbA1c, and statin use, the plasma levels of apoC-I, apoC-II, apoC-III, apoE, apoF, apoH, apoJ, and apoL1 were positively associated with a high risk for T2D. After further adjustment for plasma triglycerides, only apoE (1 SD natural-log-transformed hazard ratio: 1.28 [95% confidence interval: 1.06; 1.54]; p = 0.010), apoF (1.22 [1.01; 1.48]; p = 0.037), apoJ (1.24 [1.03; 1.49]; p = 0.024), and apoL1 (1.26 [1.05; 1.52]; p = 0.014) remained significantly associated with the onset of T2D. Kaplan–Meier survival curves also showed that the lower third of plasma apoE levels (