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Abstract

Background: The reproducible nature of HIV-1 escape from HLA-restricted CD8+ T-cell responses allows the identification of HLA-associated viral polymorphisms “at the population level” – that is, via analysis of cross-sectional, linked HLA/HIV-1 genotypes by statistical association. However, elucidating their timing of selection traditionally requires detailed longitudinal studies, which are challenging to undertake on a large scale. We investigate whether the extent and relative timecourse of immune-driven HIV adaptation can be inferred via comparative cross-sectional analysis of independent early and chronic infection cohorts. Results: Similarly-powered datasets of linked HLA/HIV-1 genotypes from individuals with early (median  200/dataset), HLA class I and HIV-1 Gag/Pol/Nef diversity, were established. These datasets were first used to define a list of 162 known HLA-associated polymorphisms detectable at the population level in cohorts of the present size and host/viral genetic composition. Of these 162 known HLA-associated polymorphisms, 15% (occurring at 14 Gag, Pol and Nef codons) were already detectable via statistical association in the early infection dataset at p ≤ 0.01 (q