BIRS Workshop Lecture Videos

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BIRS Workshop Lecture Videos

Time of infections of SI epidemics on networks of cities, farms, or individuals Ma, Junling


A novel probabilistic approach is presented for obtaining the probability distribu- tion of infection time for SI disease epidemics on a finite network specified as a fixed weighted digraph. Individuals (network nodes) are classified as either susceptible or infectious, with transmission rates along weighted network arcs. The model is ap- propriate for diseases with no recovery, or for the initial outbreak of diseases with recovery. Our method to analyze the model yields the exact probability distribution for the time at which a given individual in the network becomes infected. This can also be used to compute the probability that any given individual is infected as well as the expected number of infectious individuals at any time. Examples of simple networks illustrate the utility of the method. Nodes can also be identified more generally, such as farms or cities, and the method can be applied to biological networks with estimated transmission rates on the network arcs.

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