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Banff International Research Station for Mathematical Innovation and Discovery

Long-term planning and decision-making regarding fundamental societal infrastructure such as transportation, energy supply and water and drainage systems must account for a changing climate. However, we still lack a better understanding of climate change and the associated impacts. Furthermore, these factors are typically associated with severe inherent uncertainty and it is critical that the decision-making appropriately accounts for this. An additional complication of the decision-making process is the involvement of multiple different actors with different backgrounds and expertise. We present the outcomes of a workshop that brought together representatives from science and practice to discuss the practical and methodological challenges of climate change adaptation. Aiming to address some of the challenges identified at the workshop, we further present a case study on local adaptation to sea level rise in Bergen, Norway. Adapting to sea level rise requires comparing different possible adaptation strategies, comparing the cost of different actions (including no action), and assessing where and at what point in time the chosen strategy should be implemented. All these decisions must be made under considerable uncertainty. We demonstrate the value of uncertainties and show for example that failing to take uncertainty into account can result in the median projected damage costs being an order of magnitude smaller.

Mathematics; Statistics; Probability theory and stochastic processes

video/mp4

Author affiliation: Norwegian Computing Center

2018-01-10

Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International

http://hdl.handle.net/2429/64321

Unreviewed

http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/