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Understanding changes in short-duration heavy rainfall with global warming

Banff International Research Station for Mathematical Innovation and Discovery

Rainfall extremes appear to be changing around the world but there is little information on how extreme short-duration events might change. This talk will present results from the NERC-funded CONVEX project which produced the first climate model integrations at convective-permitting scales. The 1.5km regional climate model run over the southern half of the UK showed that extreme rainfall events at the hourly scale are expected to increase in frequency in the future during summer months. Additional analysis of the model, and other convective-permitting model runs, show that these models can reproduce observed relationships between temperature and precipitation extremes and extreme value scaling. Discussion will also be made of temperature-precipitation scaling relationships from ad-hoc sub-daily observational studies and how these vary globally and how climate models suggest these should change in future from the few studies that have now been performed across the globe. The first results from the ERC-funded INTENSE project, which aims to perform a global analysis of changes to sub-daily precipitation extremes, will be presented, as well as progress in this area in the international arena through the GEWEX sub-daily precipitation cross-cut activity.

Mathematics; Statistics; Geophysics; Mathematics of planet earth

video/mp4

Author affiliation: Newcastle University

2016-12-13

Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International

http://hdl.handle.net/2429/59969

Unreviewed

http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/